A quantitative description for efficient financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Immonen, Eero

2015-09-01

In this article we develop a control system model for describing efficient financial markets. We define the efficiency of a financial market in quantitative terms by robust asymptotic price-value equality in this model. By invoking the Internal Model Principle of robust output regulation theory we then show that under No Bubble Conditions, in the proposed model, the market is efficient if and only if the following conditions hold true: (1) the traders, as a group, can identify any mispricing in asset value (even if no one single trader can do it accurately), and (2) the traders, as a group, incorporate an internal model of the value process (again, even if no one single trader knows it). This main result of the article, which deliberately avoids the requirement for investor rationality, demonstrates, in quantitative terms, that the more transparent the markets are, the more efficient they are. An extensive example is provided to illustrate the theoretical development.

Developing a Social Media and Marketing Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Faulds, David J.; Mangold, W. Glynn

2014-01-01

This paper describes the process used and experiences gained in developing a social media and marketing course. As the first known paper on this topic appearing in the marketing education literature, the paper provides educators with a framework for developing similar courses. The course was developed using a sound instructional design model, the…

Model documentation: Electricity Market Module, Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components.

Developing land market data for use in a state wide land use and transportation model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-10-01

This working paper describes the process used to develop land market variables : for use by TRANUS in the Transportation and Land Use Model Integration : Program (TLUMIP). One of the key variables developed during this phase of the : project is the m...

Language Implications for Advertising in International Markets: A Model for Message Content and Message Execution.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beard, John; Yaprak, Attila

A content analysis model for assessing advertising themes and messages generated primarily for United States markets to overcome barriers in the cultural environment of international markets was developed and tested. The model is based on three primary categories for generating, evaluating, and executing advertisements: rational, emotional, and…

Timber markets and fuel treatments in the western US

Treesearch

Karen L. Abt; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2006-01-01

We developed a model of interrelated timber markets in the U.S. West to assess the impacts of large-scale fuel reduction programs on these markets, and concomitant effects of the market on the fuel reduction programs. The linear programming spatial equilibrium model allows interstate and international trade with western Canada and the rest of the world, while...

A model to decompose the performance of supplementary private health insurance markets.

PubMed

Leidl, Reiner

2008-09-01

For an individual insurance firm offering supplementary private health insurance, a model is developed to decompose market performance in terms of insurer profits. For the individual contract, the model specifies the conditions under which adverse selection, cream skimming, and moral hazard occur, shows the impact of information on contracting, and the profit contribution. Contracts are determined by comparing willingness to pay for insurance with the individual's risk position, and information on both sides of the market. Finally, performance is aggregated up to the total market. The model provides a framework to explain the attractiveness of supplementary markets to insurers.

Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumöhl, Eduard; Kočenda, Evžen; Lyócsa, Štefan; Výrost, Tomáš

2018-01-01

In our network analysis of 40 developed, emerging and frontier stock markets during the 2006-2014 period, we describe and model volatility spillovers during both the global financial crisis and tranquil periods. The resulting market interconnectedness is depicted by fitting a spatial model incorporating several exogenous characteristics. We document the presence of significant temporal proximity effects between markets and somewhat weaker temporal effects with regard to the US equity market - volatility spillovers decrease when markets are characterized by greater temporal proximity. Volatility spillovers also present a high degree of interconnectedness, which is measured by high spatial autocorrelation. This finding is confirmed by spatial regression models showing that indirect effects are much stronger than direct effects; i.e., market-related changes in 'neighboring' markets (within a network) affect volatility spillovers more than changes in the given market alone, suggesting that spatial effects simply cannot be ignored when modeling stock market relationships. Our results also link spillovers of escalating magnitude with increasing market size, market liquidity and economic openness.

Comparison of vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM) for index of ASEAN stock price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suharsono, Agus; Aziza, Auliya; Pramesti, Wara

2017-12-01

Capital markets can be an indicator of the development of a country's economy. The presence of capital markets also encourages investors to trade; therefore investors need information and knowledge of which shares are better. One way of making decisions for short-term investments is the need for modeling to forecast stock prices in the period to come. Issue of stock market-stock integration ASEAN is very important. The problem is that ASEAN does not have much time to implement one market in the economy, so it would be very interesting if there is evidence whether the capital market in the ASEAN region, especially the countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand deserve to be integrated or still segmented. Furthermore, it should also be known and proven What kind of integration is happening: what A capital market affects only the market Other capital, or a capital market only Influenced by other capital markets, or a Capital market as well as affecting as well Influenced by other capital markets in one ASEAN region. In this study, it will compare forecasting of Indonesian share price (IHSG) with neighboring countries (ASEAN) including developed and developing countries such as Malaysia (KLSE), Singapore (SGE), Thailand (SETI), Philippines (PSE) to find out which stock country the most superior and influential. These countries are the founders of ASEAN and share price index owners who have close relations with Indonesia in terms of trade, especially exports and imports. Stock price modeling in this research is using multivariate time series analysis that is VAR (Vector Autoregressive) and VECM (Vector Error Correction Modeling). VAR and VECM models not only predict more than one variable but also can see the interrelations between variables with each other. If the assumption of white noise is not met in the VAR modeling, then the cause can be assumed that there is an outlier. With this modeling will be able to know the pattern of relationship or linkage of share prices of each country in ASEAN. The best modeling comparison result of the ASEAN stock price index is VAR.

Spillovers among regional and international stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huen, Tan Bee; Arsad, Zainudin; Chun, Ooi Po

2014-07-01

Realizing the greater risk by the increase in the level of financial market integration, this study investigates the dynamic of international and regional stock markets co-movement among Asian countries with the world leading market, the US. The data utilized in this study comprises of weekly closing prices for four stock indices, that consists of two developing markets (Malaysia and China) and two developed markets (Japan and the US), and encompasses the period from January 1996 to December 2012. Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model with the BEKK parameterization is employed to investigate the mean and volatility spillover effects among the selected stock indices. The results show significant mean spillover not only from the larger developed markets to smaller developing markets but also from the smaller developing markets to larger developed markets. Volatility spillover between the developed markets is found to be smaller than that between the developing markets. Conditional correlations among the stock markets are found to increase over the sample period. The findings of significant mean and volatility spillovers are considered as bad news for international investors as it reduces the benefit from portfolio diversification but act as useful information for investors to be more aware in diversifying their investment or stock selection.

A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin; Johnson, Edward J., Jr. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin

2003-01-01

There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

Facebook's personal page modelling and simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarlis, Apostolos S.; Sakas, Damianos P.; Vlachos, D. S.

2015-02-01

In this paper we will try to define the utility of Facebook's Personal Page marketing method. This tool that Facebook provides, is modelled and simulated using iThink in the context of a Facebook marketing agency. The paper has leveraged the system's dynamic paradigm to conduct Facebook marketing tools and methods modelling, using iThink™ system to implement them. It uses the design science research methodology for the proof of concept of the models and modelling processes. The following model has been developed for a social media marketing agent/company, Facebook platform oriented and tested in real circumstances. This model is finalized through a number of revisions and iterators of the design, development, simulation, testing and evaluation processes. The validity and usefulness of this Facebook marketing model for the day-to-day decision making are authenticated by the management of the company organization. Facebook's Personal Page method can be adjusted, depending on the situation, in order to maximize the total profit of the company which is to bring new customers, keep the interest of the old customers and deliver traffic to its website.

Strategic Marketing for Educational Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanson, E. Mark; Henry, Walter

1992-01-01

Private-sector strategic marketing processes can significantly benefit schools desiring to develop public confidence and support and establish guidelines for future development. This article defines a strategic marketing model for school systems and articulates the sequence of related research and operational steps comprising it. Although schools…

Market Motivations for Voluntary Carbon Disclosure in Real Estate Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ufere, Kalu Joseph; Alias, Buang; Godwin Uche, Aliagha

2016-07-01

Climate change mitigation in developing economies is a balancing act, between economic development and environmental sustainability. The need for market friendly determinants for low carbon economy, without compromising economic development is of essence. The aim of the study is to determine market friendly factors, which motivates voluntary carbon information disclosure, in the real estate industry. The study modeled economic factor with three variables and financial market factor with three variables against voluntary carbon information disclosure in the real estate industry. Structural equation modeling was used for the modeling and content analysis was used to collect data on the level of voluntary carbon information disclosure, from 2013 annual reports of 126 real estate sector companies listed in the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE). The model achieved a good fit, and was acceptable prediction. The results show that financial market factor has a significant predictive influence on voluntary carbon disclosure. The application of the result is that financial market factor is has a significantly positive influence on companies’ willingness to make voluntary carbon disclosure in the real estate industry. The result may be limited to the real estate industry that is highly leveraged on syndicated fund.

Regional analyses of labor markets and demography: a model based Norwegian example.

PubMed

Stambol, L S; Stolen, N M; Avitsland, T

1998-01-01

The authors discuss the regional REGARD model, developed by Statistics Norway to analyze the regional implications of macroeconomic development of employment, labor force, and unemployment. "In building the model, empirical analyses of regional producer behavior in manufacturing industries have been performed, and the relation between labor market development and regional migration has been investigated. Apart from providing a short description of the REGARD model, this article demonstrates the functioning of the model, and presents some results of an application." excerpt

Linking market interaction intensity of 3D Ising type financial model with market volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Wen; Ke, Jinchuan; Wang, Jun; Feng, Ling

2016-11-01

Microscopic interaction models in physics have been used to investigate the complex phenomena of economic systems. The simple interactions involved can lead to complex behaviors and help the understanding of mechanisms in the financial market at a systemic level. This article aims to develop a financial time series model through 3D (three-dimensional) Ising dynamic system which is widely used as an interacting spins model to explain the ferromagnetism in physics. Through Monte Carlo simulations of the financial model and numerical analysis for both the simulation return time series and historical return data of Hushen 300 (HS300) index in Chinese stock market, we show that despite its simplicity, this model displays stylized facts similar to that seen in real financial market. We demonstrate a possible underlying link between volatility fluctuations of real stock market and the change in interaction strengths of market participants in the financial model. In particular, our stochastic interaction strength in our model demonstrates that the real market may be consistently operating near the critical point of the system.

AAL service development loom--from the idea to a marketable business model.

PubMed

Kriegel, Johannes; Auinger, Klemens

2015-01-01

The Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) market is still in an early stage of development. Previous approaches of comprehensive AAL services are mostly supply-side driven and focused on hardware and software. Usually this type of AAL solutions does not lead to a sustainable success on the market. Research and development increasingly focuses on demand and customer requirements in addition to the social and legal framework. The question is: How can a systematic performance measurement strategy along a service development process support the market-ready design of a concrete business model for AAL service? Within the EU funded research project DALIA (Assistant for Daily Life Activities at Home) an iterative service development process uses an adapted Osterwalder business model canvas. The application of a performance measurement index (PMI) to support the process has been developed and tested. Development of an iterative service development model using a supporting PMI. The PMI framework is developed throughout the engineering of a virtual assistant (AVATAR) as a modular interface to connect informal carers with necessary and useful services. Future research should seek to ensure that the PMI enables meaningful transparency regarding targeting (e.g. innovative AAL service), design (e.g. functional hybrid AAL service) and implementation (e.g. marketable AAL support services). To this end, a further reference to further testing practices is required. The aim must be to develop a weighted PMI in the context of further research, which supports both the service engineering and the subsequent service management process.

Improved structural pricing model for the fair market price of Sukuk Ijarah in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosadi, D.; Muslim

2017-12-01

Shariah financial products are currently developing in Indonesia financial market. One of the most important products is called as Sukuk which is commonly referred to as "sharia compliant" bonds. The type of Sukuk that have been widely traded in Indonesia until now are Sukuk Ijarah and Sukuk Mudharabah. In [1], we discuss various models for the price of the fixed-non-callable Sukuk Ijarah and provide the empirical studies using data from Indonesia Bonds market. We found that the structural model considered in [1] cannot model the market price empirically well. In this paper, we consider the improved model and show that it performs well for modelling the fair market price of Sukuk Ijarah.

Evaluating Economic Impacts of Expanded Global Wood Energy Consumption with the USFPM/GFPM Model

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince; Andrew Kramp; Kenneth E. Skog

2012-01-01

A U.S. forest sector market module was developed within the general Global Forest Products Model. The U.S. module tracks regional timber markets, timber harvests by species group, and timber product outputs in greater detail than does the global model. This hybrid approach provides detailed regional market analysis for the United States although retaining the...

Tech Prep Model for Marketing Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruhland, Sheila K.; King, Binky M.

A project was conducted to develop two tech prep models for marketing education (ME) in Missouri to provide a sequence of courses for skill-enhanced and time-shortened programs. First, labor market trends, employment growth projections, and business and industry labor needs in Missouri were researched and analyzed. The analysis results were used…

Product-market differentiation: a strategic planning model for community hospitals.

PubMed

Milch, R A

1980-01-01

Community hospitals would seem to have every reason to identify and capitalize on their product-market strengths. The strategic marketing/planning model provides a framework for rational analysis of the community hospital dilemma and for developing sensible solutions to the complex problems of accelerating hospital price-inflation.

A study of the spreading scheme for viral marketing based on a complex network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jianmei; Yao, Canzhong; Ma, Weicheng; Chen, Guanrong

2010-02-01

Buzzword-based viral marketing, known also as digital word-of-mouth marketing, is a marketing mode attached to some carriers on the Internet, which can rapidly copy marketing information at a low cost. Viral marketing actually uses a pre-existing social network where, however, the scale of the pre-existing network is believed to be so large and so random, so that its theoretical analysis is intractable and unmanageable. There are very few reports in the literature on how to design a spreading scheme for viral marketing on real social networks according to the traditional marketing theory or the relatively new network marketing theory. Complex network theory provides a new model for the study of large-scale complex systems, using the latest developments of graph theory and computing techniques. From this perspective, the present paper extends the complex network theory and modeling into the research of general viral marketing and develops a specific spreading scheme for viral marking and an approach to design the scheme based on a real complex network on the QQ instant messaging system. This approach is shown to be rather universal and can be further extended to the design of various spreading schemes for viral marketing based on different instant messaging systems.

Proposed Model for Innovation of Community Colleges to Meet Labor Market Needs in Saudi Arabia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Almannie, Mohamed

2015-01-01

The study introduced a very important issue for the development of labor market in any developing country. The rapid changes in technology and communication imposed challenges on education institutions for the development of labor market to meet local communities. These institutions have more responsibilities to provide professional and skilled…

Does the market maker stabilize the market?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Mei; Chiarella, Carl; He, Xue-Zhong; Wang, Duo

2009-08-01

The market maker plays an important role in price formation, but his/her behavior and stabilizing impact on the market are relatively unclear, in particular in speculative markets. This paper develops a financial market model that examines the impact on market stability of the market maker, who acts as both a liquidity provider and an active investor in a market consisting of two types of boundedly rational speculative investors-the fundamentalists and trend followers. We show that the market maker does not necessarily stabilize the market when he/she actively manages the inventory to maximize profits, and that rather the market maker’s impact depends on the behavior of the speculators. Numerical simulations show that the model is able to generate outcomes for asset returns and market inventories that are consistent with empirical findings.

Model For Marketing Strategy Decision Based On Multicriteria Decicion Making: A Case Study In Batik Madura Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anna, I. D.; Cahyadi, I.; Yakin, A.

2018-01-01

Selection of marketing strategy is a prominent competitive advantage for small and medium enterprises business development. The selection process is is a multiple criteria decision-making problem, which includes evaluation of various attributes or criteria in a process of strategy formulation. The objective of this paper is to develop a model for the selection of a marketing strategy in Batik Madura industry. The current study proposes an integrated approach based on analytic network process (ANP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to determine the best strategy for Batik Madura marketing problems. Based on the results of group decision-making technique, this study selected fourteen criteria, including consistency, cost, trend following, customer loyalty, business volume, uniqueness manpower, customer numbers, promotion, branding, bussiness network, outlet location, credibility and the inovation as Batik Madura marketing strategy evaluation criteria. A survey questionnaire developed from literature review was distributed to a sample frame of Batik Madura SMEs in Pamekasan. In the decision procedure step, expert evaluators were asked to establish the decision matrix by comparing the marketing strategy alternatives under each of the individual criteria. Then, considerations obtained from ANP and TOPSIS methods were applied to build the specific criteria constraints and range of the launch strategy in the model. The model in this study demonstrates that, under current business situation, Straight-focus marketing strategy is the best marketing strategy for Batik Madura SMEs in Pamekasan.

Myths and Realities of Academic Labor Markets.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fairweather, James S.

1995-01-01

Examines national data on 4,481 full-time college and university faculty to develop a pay model derived from competing propositions (market segmentation, single national market, and incentive-based perspectives) concerning salary's role in faculty rewards. Findings suggest a blend of market segmentation with a national market perspective rewarding…

Time-varying economic dominance in financial markets: A bistable dynamics approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xue-Zhong; Li, Kai; Wang, Chuncheng

2018-05-01

By developing a continuous-time heterogeneous agent financial market model of multi-assets traded by fundamental and momentum investors, we provide a potential mechanism for generating time-varying dominance between fundamental and non-fundamental in financial markets. We show that investment constraints lead to the coexistence of a locally stable fundamental steady state and a locally stable limit cycle around the fundamental, characterized by a Bautin bifurcation. This provides a mechanism for market prices to switch stochastically between the two persistent but very different market states, leading to the coexistence and time-varying dominance of seemingly controversial efficient market and price momentum over different time periods. The model also generates other financial market stylized facts, such as spillover effects in both momentum and volatility, market booms, crashes, and correlation reduction due to cross-sectional momentum trading. Empirical evidence based on the U.S. market supports the main findings. The mechanism developed in this paper can be used to characterize time-varying economic dominance in economics and finance in general.

Time-varying economic dominance in financial markets: A bistable dynamics approach.

PubMed

He, Xue-Zhong; Li, Kai; Wang, Chuncheng

2018-05-01

By developing a continuous-time heterogeneous agent financial market model of multi-assets traded by fundamental and momentum investors, we provide a potential mechanism for generating time-varying dominance between fundamental and non-fundamental in financial markets. We show that investment constraints lead to the coexistence of a locally stable fundamental steady state and a locally stable limit cycle around the fundamental, characterized by a Bautin bifurcation. This provides a mechanism for market prices to switch stochastically between the two persistent but very different market states, leading to the coexistence and time-varying dominance of seemingly controversial efficient market and price momentum over different time periods. The model also generates other financial market stylized facts, such as spillover effects in both momentum and volatility, market booms, crashes, and correlation reduction due to cross-sectional momentum trading. Empirical evidence based on the U.S. market supports the main findings. The mechanism developed in this paper can be used to characterize time-varying economic dominance in economics and finance in general.

Distributed Generation Market Demand Model | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Demand Model The Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the dGen model can help develop deployment forecasts for distributed resources, including sensitivity to

Systems, not pills: The options market for antibiotics seeks to rejuvenate the antibiotic pipeline.

PubMed

Brogan, David M; Mossialos, Elias

2016-02-01

Over the past decade, there has been a growing recognition of the increasing growth of antibiotic resistant bacteria and a relative decline in the production of novel antibacterial therapies. The combination of these two forces poses a potentially grave threat to global health, in both developed and developing countries. Current market forces do not provide appropriate incentives to stimulate new antibiotic development, thus we propose a new incentive mechanism: the Options Market for Antibiotics. This mechanism, modelled on the principle of financial call options, allows payers to buy the right, in early stages of development, to purchase antibiotics at a discounted price if and when they ever make it to market approval. This paper demonstrates the effect of such a model on the expected Net Present Value of a typical antibacterial project. As part of an integrated strategy to confront the impending antibiotic crisis, the Options Market for Antibiotics may effectively stimulate corporate and public investment into antibiotic research and development. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Contract-based electricity markets in developing countries: Overcoming inefficiency constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perera, M. N. Susantha

The electric utility sector throughout the world has been undergoing significant changes. It is changing from its traditional, central-station generation model managed under a vertically integrated monopoly to a more market-dependent business. In the rich industrialized countries, this change has progressed rapidly with the emergence of competitive markets---not only in the area of electricity generation, but also in the extension of such markets down to the level of retail domestic consumer. Developing countries, on the other hand, are trying to attract much-needed investment capital for their power sector expansion activities, particularly for the expansion of generating capacity, through the involvement of the private sector. Unlike their industrialized counterparts, they are facing many limitations in transforming the mostly government-owned monopolies into market-driven businesses, thereby creating an environment that is conducive to private sector participation. Amongst these limitations are the lack of a well-developed, local private sector or domestic financial market that can handle the sophisticated power sector financing; inadequate legal and regulatory frameworks that can address the many complexities of private power development; and numerous risk factors including political risks. This dissertation research addresses an important inefficiency faced by developing countries in the new contract-based market structure that has emerged within these countries. It examines the inefficiencies brought on by restrictions in the contracts, specifically those arising from the guaranteed purchase conditions that are typically included in contracts between the purchasing utility and independent power producers in this new market. The research attempts to provide a solution for this problem and proposes a methodology that enables the parties to conduct their businesses in a cost-efficient manner within a cooperative environment. The situation described above is modeled as a cooperative game based on the relationships that typically exist in power pools. This model draws its mathematical basis from game theory. This research demonstrates that the proposed model has a theoretical solution that yields an efficient allocation of resources. Furthermore, this solution has a significant practical validity as a tool that can be employed by developing country governments faced with similar market situations. In the case study presented here, the model is tested using data from a small developing country.

Global and Local Approaches Describing Critical Phenomena on the Developing and Developed Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grech, Dariusz

We define and confront global and local methods to analyze the financial crash-like events on the financial markets from the critical phenomena point of view. These methods are based respectively on the analysis of log-periodicity and on the local fractal properties of financial time series in the vicinity of phase transitions (crashes). The log-periodicity analysis is made in a daily time horizon, for the whole history (1991-2008) of Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG) connected with the largest developing financial market in Europe. We find that crash-like events on the Polish financial market are described better by the log-divergent price model decorated with log-periodic behavior than by the power-law-divergent price model usually discussed in log-periodic scenarios for developed markets. Predictions coming from log-periodicity scenario are verified for all main crashes that took place in WIG history. It is argued that crash predictions within log-periodicity model strongly depend on the amount of data taken to make a fit and therefore are likely to contain huge inaccuracies. Next, this global analysis is confronted with the local fractal description. To do so, we provide calculation of the so-called local (time dependent) Hurst exponent H loc for the WIG time series and for main US stock market indices like DJIA and S&P 500. We point out dependence between the behavior of the local fractal properties of financial time series and the crashes appearance on the financial markets. We conclude that local fractal method seems to work better than the global approach - both for developing and developed markets. The very recent situation on the market, particularly related to the Fed intervention in September 2007 and the situation immediately afterwards is also analyzed within fractal approach. It is shown in this context how the financial market evolves through different phases of fractional Brownian motion. Finally, the current situation on American market is analyzed in fractal language. This is to show how far we still are from the end of recession and from the beginning of a new boom on US financial market or on other world leading stocks.

A Theoretical Manpower Optimization Model for the Air Force Installation Contracting Agency (AFICA)

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

development and enterprise-wide market intelligence. The theoretical manpower model proposed by this project optimizes manpower in respect to contracting...procurement needs and/or more effectively leverage spend, market position, market knowledge (e.g., price benchmarks), and capabilities (e.g., IT...CONS level because the process savings are not clearly traceable to a contract action. For example, to augment the market intelligence of category

Education, Labour Market and Human Capital Models: Swedish Experiences and Theoretical Analyses.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sohlman, Asa

An empirical study concerning development of the Swedish educational system from a labor market point of view, and a theoretical study on human capital models are discussed. In "Education and Labour Market; The Swedish Experience 1900-1975," attention is directed to the following concerns: the official educational policy regarding…

Microeconomics of the ideal gas like market models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakrabarti, Anindya S.; Chakrabarti, Bikas K.

2009-10-01

We develop a framework based on microeconomic theory from which the ideal gas like market models can be addressed. A kinetic exchange model based on that framework is proposed and its distributional features have been studied by considering its moments. Next, we derive the moments of the CC model (Eur. Phys. J. B 17 (2000) 167) as well. Some precise solutions are obtained which conform with the solutions obtained earlier. Finally, an output market is introduced with global price determination in the model with some necessary modifications.

Impact of global financial crisis on stylized facts between energy markets and stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, Tan Kim; Cheong, Chin Wen; Hooi, Tan Siow

2014-06-01

Understanding the stylized facts is extremely important and has becomes a hot issue nowadays. However, recent global financial crisis that started from United States had spread all over the world and adversely affected the commodities and financial sectors of both developed and developing countries. This paper tends to examine the impact of crisis on stylized facts between energy and stock markets using ARCH-family models based on the experience over 2008 global financial crisis. Empirical results denote that there is long lasting, persists and positively significant the autocorrelation function of absolute returns and their squares in both markets for before and during crisis. Besides that, leverage effects are found in stock markets whereby bad news has a greater impact on volatility than good news for both before and during crisis. However, crisis does not indicate any impact on risk-return tradeoff for both energy and stock markets. For forecasting evaluations, GARCH model and FIAPARCH model indicate superior out of sample forecasts for before and during crisis respectively.

Wavelet transform approach for fitting financial time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Amel Abdoullah; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

2015-10-01

This study investigates a newly developed technique; a combined wavelet filtering and VEC model, to study the dynamic relationship among financial time series. Wavelet filter has been used to annihilate noise data in daily data set of NASDAQ stock market of US, and three stock markets of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, namely, Egypt, Jordan, and Istanbul. The data covered is from 6/29/2001 to 5/5/2009. After that, the returns of generated series by wavelet filter and original series are analyzed by cointegration test and VEC model. The results show that the cointegration test affirms the existence of cointegration between the studied series, and there is a long-term relationship between the US, stock markets and MENA stock markets. A comparison between the proposed model and traditional model demonstrates that, the proposed model (DWT with VEC model) outperforms traditional model (VEC model) to fit the financial stock markets series well, and shows real information about these relationships among the stock markets.

A Model for the Development an Upper-Division Marketing Certificate Program: Professional Sales.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grahn, Joyce L.

The sequential components of a model for the development of an upper-division marketing certificate program in professional sales are described in this report as they were implemented at the University of Minnesota's General College during Fall 1980. After introductory material examining the responsibilities of the professional sales…

Developing Models to Forcast Sales of Natural Christmas Trees

Treesearch

Lawrence D. Garrett; Thomas H. Pendleton

1977-01-01

A study of practices for marketing Christmas trees in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, and Denver, Colorado, revealed that such factors as retail lot competition, tree price, consumer traffic, and consumer income were very important in determining a particular retailer's sales. Analyses of 4 years of market data were used in developing regression models for...

Drug development costs when financial risk is measured using the Fama-French three-factor model.

PubMed

Vernon, John A; Golec, Joseph H; Dimasi, Joseph A

2010-08-01

In a widely cited article, DiMasi, Hansen, and Grabowski (2003) estimate the average pre-tax cost of bringing a new molecular entity to market. Their base case estimate, excluding post-marketing studies, was $802 million (in $US 2000). Strikingly, almost half of this cost (or $399 million) is the cost of capital (COC) used to fund clinical development expenses to the point of FDA marketing approval. The authors used an 11% real COC computed using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). But the CAPM is a single factor risk model, and multi-factor risk models are the current state of the art in finance. Using the Fama-French three factor model we find that the cost of drug development to be higher than the earlier estimate. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Business Case Analysis of the Towed Gilder Air Launched System (TGALS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, Darryl W.; Nguyen, McLinton B.; Seibold, Robert W.; Wong, Frank C.; Budd, Gerald D.

2017-01-01

The Aerospace Corporation developed an integrated Business Case Analysis (BCA) model on behalf of the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC). This model evaluated the potential profitability of the Towed Glider Air Launched System (TGALS) concept, under development at AFRC, identifying potential technical, programmatic, and business decisions that could improve its business viability. The model addressed system performance metrics; development, production and operation cost estimates; market size and product service positioning; pricing alternatives; and market share.

Consensus modeling to develop the farmers' market readiness assessment and decision instrument.

PubMed

Lee, Eunlye; Dalton, Jarrod; Ngendahimana, David; Bebo, Pat; Davis, Ashley; Remley, Daniel; Smathers, Carol; Freedman, Darcy A

2017-09-01

Nutrition-related policy, system, and environmental (PSE) interventions such as farmers' markets have been recommended as effective strategies for promoting healthy diet for chronic disease prevention. Tools are needed to assess community readiness and capacity factors influencing successful farmers' market implementation among diverse practitioners in different community contexts. We describe a multiphase consensus modeling approach used to develop a diagnostic tool for assessing readiness and capacity to implement farmers' market interventions among public health and community nutrition practitioners working with low-income populations in diverse contexts. Modeling methods included the following: phase 1, qualitative study with community stakeholders to explore facilitators and barriers influencing successful implementation of farmers' market interventions in low-income communities; phase 2, development of indicators based on operationalization of qualitative findings; phase 3, assessment of relevance and importance of indicators and themes through consensus conference with expert panel; phase 4, refinement of indicators based on consensus conference; and phase 5, pilot test of the assessment tool. Findings illuminate a range of implementation factors influencing farmers' market PSE interventions and offer guidance for tailoring intervention delivery based on levels of community, practitioner, and organizational readiness and capacity.

The Use of an Expectancy-Value Model in Studying a University's Image. AIR Forum 1982 Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muffo, John A.; Whipple, Thomas W.

The use of an expectancy-value model, common to consumer marketing studies, in analyzing the market position of Cleveland State University was investigated. Attention was focused on showing how consumer attitude concepts and methodologies can be used in developing a strategic marketing plan. Six populations were identified as groups important to…

A marketing model: applications for dietetic professionals.

PubMed

Parks, S C; Moody, D L

1986-01-01

Traditionally, dietitians have communicated the availability of their services to the "public at large." The expectation was that the public would respond favorably to nutrition programs simply because there was a consumer need for them. Recently, however, both societal and consumer needs have changed dramatically, making old communication strategies ineffective and obsolete. The marketing discipline has provided a new model and new decision-making tools for many health professionals to use to more effectively make their services known to multiple consumer groups. This article provides one such model as applied to the dietetic profession. The model explores a definition of the business of dietetics, how to conduct an analysis of the environment, and, finally, the use of both in the choice of new target markets. Further, the model discusses the major components of developing a marketing strategy that will help the practitioner to be competitive in the marketplace. Presented are strategies for defining and re-evaluating the mission of the profession, for using future trends to identify new markets and roles for the profession, and for developing services that make the profession more competitive by better meeting the needs of the consumer.

Pharmaceutical company influences on medication prescribing and their potential impact on quality use of medicines.

PubMed

Kyle, G J; Nissen, L M; Tett, S E

2008-10-01

Pharmaceuticals are big business, reporting strong market growth year after year. The 'gatekeepers' of this market are prescribers of medicines, who are the major target of pharmaceutical companies, utilizing direct and indirect influences. This paper draws on previous research investigating pharmaceutical company prescribing influences to develop a qualitative model demonstrating the synergism between commercial influences on prescribing. The generic model was used to explore a realistic but hypothetical scenario to ascertain the applicability of the model. A generic influence model was developed. The model was readily able to be adapted to reflect a realistic practice scenario. Prescriber awareness of the linkages between various seemingly separate marketing techniques could potentially improve medicines usage in an evidence-based practice paradigm.

Successful Student Recruitment Using Direct Marketing and Information Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merante, Joseph A.

1982-01-01

Educational marketing--which uses marketing methods unique to education institutions, including segmentation, direct mail, and information technology--is discussed. A model for student recruitment developed by the University of Pittsburgh is described. (Author/MLW)

Assessing the Community College Transfer Market: A Metamarketing Application

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leister, Douglas V.; MacLachlan, Douglas L.

1976-01-01

A conceptual model is proposed for strategic assessment of potential clientele groups of higher educational institutions. Market segmentation, a modern marketing tool for planning and strategy development, is illustrated with a particular four-year institution's analysis of its regional community college transfer market. (Author/LBH)

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, M.

This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

The PG-TRAK Manual: Using PGCC's Custom Lifestyle Cluster System. Market Analysis MA91-3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boughan, Karl

In early 1990, Prince George's Community College (PGCC), in response to declining enrollments, developed an affordable and locally effective geo-demographic cluster system for meeting the college's research and marketing needs. The system, dubbed "PG-TRAK," is based on a model developed 15 years ago as a corporate marketing tool, and involves…

[Application of Markov model in post-marketing pharmacoeconomic evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine].

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Su, Xia; Sun, Wentao; Xie, Yanming; Wang, Yongyan

2011-10-01

In post-marketing study of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), pharmacoeconomic evaluation has an important applied significance. However, the economic literatures of TCM have been unable to fully and accurately reflect the unique overall outcomes of treatment with TCM. For the special nature of TCM itself, we recommend that Markov model could be introduced into post-marketing pharmacoeconomic evaluation of TCM, and also explore the feasibility of model application. Markov model can extrapolate the study time horizon, suit with effectiveness indicators of TCM, and provide measurable comprehensive outcome. In addition, Markov model can promote the development of TCM quality of life scale and the methodology of post-marketing pharmacoeconomic evaluation.

Restricting the marketing of foods and non-alcoholic beverages to children in South Africa: are all nutrient profiling models the same?

PubMed

Wicks, Mariaan; Wright, Hattie; Wentzel-Viljoen, Edelweiss

2016-12-01

The WHO has called for governments to improve children's food environment by implementing restrictions on the marketing of 'unhealthy' foods to children. Nutrient profiling (NP) models are used to define 'unhealthy' foods and support child-directed food marketing regulations. The aim of the present study was to assess the suitability of the South African NP model (SANPM), developed and validated for health claim regulations, for child-directed food marketing regulations. The SANPM was compared with four NP models specifically developed for such regulations. A representative list of 197 foods was compiled by including all foods advertised on South African free-to-air television channels in 2014 and foods commonly consumed by South African children. The nutritional information of the foods was sourced from food packaging, company websites and a food composition table. Each individual food was classified by each of the five NP models. The percentage of foods that would be allowed according to the different NP models ranged from 6 to 45 %; the models also varied considerably with regard to the type of foods allowed for marketing to children. The majority of the pairwise comparisons between the NP models yielded κ statistics >0·4, indicating a moderate agreement between the models. An almost perfect pairwise agreement (κ=0·948) existed between the SANPM and the UK Food Standards Agency model (United Kingdom Office of Communication nutrient profiling model), a model extensively tested and validated for such regulations. The SANPM is considered appropriate for child-directed food marketing regulations in South Africa.

The mismatch between conventional house price modeling and regulated markets: insights from The Netherlands.

PubMed

Tu, Qi; de Haan, Jan; Boelhouwer, Peter

2017-01-01

House price modeling has been frequently used to investigate the dynamics of housing markets, especially competitive markets; yet less attention has been given to markets that have experienced considerable interventions. The aim of this study is to demonstrate a mismatch between conventional house price models and the case of the Netherlands and to provide reasons of such mismatch. We first describe and classify the conventional house price models into asset-pricing house price model, stock-flow model, multi-period utility model, and repayment model. These models are subsequently applied to the Netherlands, where considerable government interventions took place. As expected, the empirical results are unsatisfactory to explain the Dutch house price development. The degree of mismatch of the repayment model and the multi-period utility model, however, seems to be fairly limited.

Systematic Model for Validating Equipment Uses in Selected Marketing and Distribution Education Programs. Final Report, February 1, 1980-June 30, 1981.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gildan, Kate; Buckner, Leroy

Research was conducted to provide a model for selecting equipment for marketing and distributive education programs that was required for the development of the skills or competencies needed to perform in marketing and distribution occupation. A research of the literature identified both competency statements for three program areas--Fashion…

An Export-Marketing Model for Pharmaceutical Firms (The Case of Iran)

PubMed Central

Mohammadzadeh, Mehdi; Aryanpour, Narges

2013-01-01

Internationalization is a matter of committed decision-making that starts with export marketing, in which an organization tries to diagnose and use opportunities in target markets based on realistic evaluation of internal strengths and weaknesses with analysis of macro and microenvironments in order to gain presence in other countries. A developed model for export and international marketing of pharmaceutical companies is introduced. The paper reviews common theories of the internationalization process, followed by examining different methods and models for assessing preparation for export activities and examining conceptual model based on a single case study method on a basket of seven leading domestic firms by using mainly questionares as the data gathering tool along with interviews for bias reduction. Finally, in keeping with the study objectives, the special aspects of the pharmaceutical marketing environment have been covered, revealing special dimensions of pharmaceutical marketing that have been embedded within the appropriate base model. The new model for international activities of pharmaceutical companies was refined by expert opinions extracted from result of questionnaires. PMID:24250597

An export-marketing model for pharmaceutical firms (the case of iran).

PubMed

Mohammadzadeh, Mehdi; Aryanpour, Narges

2013-01-01

Internationalization is a matter of committed decision-making that starts with export marketing, in which an organization tries to diagnose and use opportunities in target markets based on realistic evaluation of internal strengths and weaknesses with analysis of macro and microenvironments in order to gain presence in other countries. A developed model for export and international marketing of pharmaceutical companies is introduced. The paper reviews common theories of the internationalization process, followed by examining different methods and models for assessing preparation for export activities and examining conceptual model based on a single case study method on a basket of seven leading domestic firms by using mainly questionares as the data gathering tool along with interviews for bias reduction. Finally, in keeping with the study objectives, the special aspects of the pharmaceutical marketing environment have been covered, revealing special dimensions of pharmaceutical marketing that have been embedded within the appropriate base model. The new model for international activities of pharmaceutical companies was refined by expert opinions extracted from result of questionnaires.

Oligopolistic competition in wholesale electricity markets: Large-scale simulation and policy analysis using complementarity models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helman, E. Udi

This dissertation conducts research into the large-scale simulation of oligopolistic competition in wholesale electricity markets. The dissertation has two parts. Part I is an examination of the structure and properties of several spatial, or network, equilibrium models of oligopolistic electricity markets formulated as mixed linear complementarity problems (LCP). Part II is a large-scale application of such models to the electricity system that encompasses most of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains, the Eastern Interconnection. Part I consists of Chapters 1 to 6. The models developed in this part continue research into mixed LCP models of oligopolistic electricity markets initiated by Hobbs [67] and subsequently developed by Metzler [87] and Metzler, Hobbs and Pang [88]. Hobbs' central contribution is a network market model with Cournot competition in generation and a price-taking spatial arbitrage firm that eliminates spatial price discrimination by the Cournot firms. In one variant, the solution to this model is shown to be equivalent to the "no arbitrage" condition in a "pool" market, in which a Regional Transmission Operator optimizes spot sales such that the congestion price between two locations is exactly equivalent to the difference in the energy prices at those locations (commonly known as locational marginal pricing). Extensions to this model are presented in Chapters 5 and 6. One of these is a market model with a profit-maximizing arbitrage firm. This model is structured as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC), but due to the linearity of its constraints, can be solved as a mixed LCP. Part II consists of Chapters 7 to 12. The core of these chapters is a large-scale simulation of the U.S. Eastern Interconnection applying one of the Cournot competition with arbitrage models. This is the first oligopolistic equilibrium market model to encompass the full Eastern Interconnection with a realistic network representation (using a DC load flow approximation). Chapter 9 shows the price results. In contrast to prior market power simulations of these markets, much greater variability in price-cost margins is found when using a realistic model of hourly conditions on such a large network. Chapter 10 shows that the conventional concentration indices (HHIs) are poorly correlated with PCMs. Finally, Chapter 11 proposes that the simulation models are applied to merger analysis and provides two large-scale merger examples. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Characteristic time scales of tick quotes on foreign currency markets: an empirical study and agent-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, A.-H.

2006-03-01

Power spectrum densities for the number of tick quotes per minute (market activity) on three currency markets (USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and JPY/EUR) for periods from January 1999 to December 2000 are analyzed. We find some peaks on the power spectrum densities at a few minutes. We develop the double-threshold agent model and confirm that stochastic resonance occurs for the market activity of this model. We propose a hypothesis that the periodicities found on the power spectrum densities can be observed due to stochastic resonance.

A stochastic equilibrium model for the North American natural gas market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Jifang

This dissertation is an endeavor in the field of energy modeling for the North American natural gas market using a mixed complementarity formulation combined with the stochastic programming. The genesis of the stochastic equilibrium model presented in this dissertation is the deterministic market equilibrium model developed in [Gabriel, Kiet and Zhuang, 2005]. Based on some improvements that we made to this model, including proving new existence and uniqueness results, we present a multistage stochastic equilibrium model with uncertain demand for the deregulated North American natural gas market using the recourse method of the stochastic programming. The market participants considered by the model are pipeline operators, producers, storage operators, peak gas operators, marketers and consumers. Pipeline operators are described with regulated tariffs but also involve "congestion pricing" as a mechanism to allocate scarce pipeline capacity. Marketers are modeled as Nash-Cournot players in sales to the residential and commercial sectors but price-takers in all other aspects. Consumers are represented by demand functions in the marketers' problem. Producers, storage operators and peak gas operators are price-takers consistent with perfect competition. Also, two types of the natural gas markets are included: the long-term and spot markets. Market participants make both high-level planning decisions (first-stage decisions) in the long-term market and daily operational decisions (recourse decisions) in the spot market subject to their engineering, resource and political constraints, resource constraints as well as market constraints on both the demand and the supply side, so as to simultaneously maximize their expected profits given others' decisions. The model is shown to be an instance of a mixed complementarity problem (MiCP) under minor conditions. The MiCP formulation is derived from applying the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker optimality conditions of the optimization problems faced by the market participants. Some theoretical results regarding the market prices in both markets are shown. We also illustrate the model on a representative, sample network of two production nodes, two consumption nodes with discretely distributed end-user demand and three seasons using four cases.

Master equation for a kinetic model of a trading market and its analytic solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, Arnab; Chakrabarti, Bikas K.; Stinchcombe, Robin B.

2005-08-01

We analyze an ideal-gas-like model of a trading market with quenched random saving factors for its agents and show that the steady state income (m) distribution P(m) in the model has a power law tail with Pareto index ν exactly equal to unity, confirming the earlier numerical studies on this model. The analysis starts with the development of a master equation for the time development of P(m) . Precise solutions are then obtained in some special cases.

Master equation for a kinetic model of a trading market and its analytic solution.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Arnab; Chakrabarti, Bikas K; Stinchcombe, Robin B

2005-08-01

We analyze an ideal-gas-like model of a trading market with quenched random saving factors for its agents and show that the steady state income (m) distribution P(m) in the model has a power law tail with Pareto index nu exactly equal to unity, confirming the earlier numerical studies on this model. The analysis starts with the development of a master equation for the time development of P(m) . Precise solutions are then obtained in some special cases.

Modeling of market segmentation for new IT product development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasiopoulos, Dimitrios K.; Sakas, Damianos P.; Vlachos, D. S.; Mavrogianni, Amanda

2015-02-01

Businesses from all Information Technology sectors use market segmentation[1] in their product development[2] and strategic planning[3]. Many studies have concluded that market segmentation is considered as the norm of modern marketing. With the rapid development of technology, customer needs are becoming increasingly diverse. These needs can no longer be satisfied by a mass marketing approach and follow one rule. IT Businesses can face with this diversity by pooling customers[4] with similar requirements and buying behavior and strength into segments. The result of the best choices about which segments are the most appropriate to serve can then be made, thus making the best of finite resources. Despite the attention which segmentation gathers and the resources that are invested in it, growing evidence suggests that businesses have problems operationalizing segmentation[5]. These problems take various forms. There may have been a rule that the segmentation process necessarily results in homogeneous groups of customers for whom appropriate marketing programs and procedures for dealing with them can be developed. Then the segmentation process, that a company follows, can fail. This increases concerns about what causes segmentation failure and how it might be overcome. To prevent the failure, we created a dynamic simulation model of market segmentation[6] based on the basic factors leading to this segmentation.

Satellite provided customer premises services: A forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kratochvil, D.; Bowyer, J.; Bhushan, C.; Steinnagel, K.; Kaushal, D.; Al-Kinani, G.

1983-01-01

Development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand, identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by CPS systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Ka-band CPS system, and postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level were achieved. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a parametric cost model, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for: 1980, 1990, 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

Satellite provided customer premises services: A forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume: Executive summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kratochvil, D.; Bowyer, J.; Bhushan, C.; Steinnagel, K.; Kaushal, D.; Al-Kinani, G.

1983-08-01

Development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand, identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by CPS systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Ka-band CPS system, and postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level were achieved. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a parametric cost model, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for: 1980, 1990, 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

The Risk Assessment Study for Electric Power Marketing Competitiveness Based on Cloud Model and TOPSIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Cunbin; Wang, Yi; Lin, Shuaishuai

2017-09-01

With the rapid development of the energy internet and the deepening of the electric power reform, the traditional marketing mode of electric power does not apply to most of electric power enterprises, so must seek a breakthrough, however, in the face of increasingly complex marketing information, how to make a quick, reasonable transformation, makes the electric power marketing competitiveness assessment more accurate and objective becomes a big problem. In this paper, cloud model and TOPSIS method is proposed. Firstly, build the electric power marketing competitiveness evaluation index system. Then utilize the cloud model to transform the qualitative evaluation of the marketing data into quantitative values and use the entropy weight method to weaken the subjective factors of evaluation index weight. Finally, by TOPSIS method the closeness degrees of alternatives are obtained. This method provides a novel solution for the electric power marketing competitiveness evaluation. Through the case analysis the effectiveness and feasibility of this model are verified.

Model for Evaluating Specialized and Traditional Programs in Marketing and Distributive Education. Final Report. University of Kentucky Research Series in Marketing and Distributive Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Litchfield, Carolyn G.

A project was conducted to develop a model for evaluating specialized and traditional programs in marketing and distributive education. The project included a review of literature containing information regarding the points of view expressed by advocates of the specialized, traditional, and middle-of-the-road approaches to program planning in…

The predictive performance of a path-dependent exotic-option credit risk model in the emerging market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dar-Hsin; Chou, Heng-Chih; Wang, David; Zaabar, Rim

2011-06-01

Most empirical research of the path-dependent, exotic-option credit risk model focuses on developed markets. Taking Taiwan as an example, this study investigates the bankruptcy prediction performance of the path-dependent, barrier option model in the emerging market. We adopt Duan's (1994) [11], (2000) [12] transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to directly estimate the unobserved model parameters, and compare the predictive ability of the barrier option model to the commonly adopted credit risk model, Merton's model. Our empirical findings show that the barrier option model is more powerful than Merton's model in predicting bankruptcy in the emerging market. Moreover, we find that the barrier option model predicts bankruptcy much better for highly-leveraged firms. Finally, our findings indicate that the prediction accuracy of the credit risk model can be improved by higher asset liquidity and greater financial transparency.

Development and validation of a strategic repositioning model for defense and aerospace contractors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bers, John A.

Strategic repositioning refers to the organized efforts of defense contractors to "reposition" a technology that they have developed for a defense sector customer into a civilian or commercial market. The strategic repositioning model developed here is a structural model: it seeks to isolate the factors that influence choice of strategy, which in turn influences the organization's performance. The model draws from the prior experience of contractors (through interviews and surveys) and companies in other sectors (through a review of the relevant published research). (1) Over all, the model accounted for 55% of the variance in financial performance of the sample and 35% for the underlying population. (2) Key success factors include a rigorous planning process, a target market in the growth (vs. incubation) stage, a priority on market leadership as well as financial return, the ability to operate in an ambiguous business environment, and a relatively short time horizon but strong corporate support. (3) The greatest challenges that a contractor is likely to encounter are understanding his new customers' buying practices, strong competition, and adapting his technology to their needs and price expectations. (4) To address these issues contractors often involve partners in their entry strategy, but partnerships of equals tend to be more difficult to bring off than direct entry strategies. (5) The two major target market categories--government and commercial--present different challenges. Commercial customers are more likely to resist doing business with the contractor, while contractors entering government and other noncommercial markets are more likely to encounter price resistance, low technical sophistication among customers, and difficulties reaching their customer base. (6) Despite these differences across markets, performance is not influenced by the target market category, nor by the type of product or service or the contractor's functional orientation (marketing, technology, or operations). (7) The absence of a difference in performance may be partly due to natural selection. Noncommercial markets tend to attract contractors with more deliberative, consultative, and process-oriented corporate cultures, while commercial markets tend to attract contractors with results-oriented, opportunistic cultures.

Reducing the Complexity of an Agent-Based Local Heroin Market Model

PubMed Central

Heard, Daniel; Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.

2014-01-01

This project explores techniques for reducing the complexity of an agent-based model (ABM). The analysis involved a model developed from the ethnographic research of Dr. Lee Hoffer in the Larimer area heroin market, which involved drug users, drug sellers, homeless individuals and police. The authors used statistical techniques to create a reduced version of the original model which maintained simulation fidelity while reducing computational complexity. This involved identifying key summary quantities of individual customer behavior as well as overall market activity and replacing some agents with probability distributions and regressions. The model was then extended to allow external market interventions in the form of police busts. Extensions of this research perspective, as well as its strengths and limitations, are discussed. PMID:25025132

Electricity generation and transmission planning in deregulated power markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yang

This dissertation addresses the long-term planning of power generation and transmission facilities in a deregulated power market. Three models with increasing complexities are developed, primarily for investment decisions in generation and transmission capacity. The models are presented in a two-stage decision context where generation and transmission capacity expansion decisions are made in the first stage, while power generation and transmission service fees are decided in the second stage. Uncertainties that exist in the second stage affect the capacity expansion decisions in the first stage. The first model assumes that the electric power market is not constrained by transmission capacity limit. The second model, which includes transmission constraints, considers the interactions between generation firms and the transmission network operator. The third model assumes that the generation and transmission sectors make capacity investment decisions separately. These models result in Nash-Cournot equilibrium among the unregulated generation firms, while the regulated transmission network operator supports the competition among generation firms. Several issues in the deregulated electric power market can be studied with these models such as market powers of generation firms and transmission network operator, uncertainties of the future market, and interactions between the generation and transmission sectors. Results deduced from the developed models include (a) regulated transmission network operator will not reserve transmission capacity to gain extra profits; instead, it will make capacity expansion decisions to support the competition in the generation sector; (b) generation firms will provide more power supplies when there is more demand; (c) in the presence of future uncertainties, the generation firms will add more generation capacity if the demand in the future power market is expected to be higher; and (d) the transmission capacity invested by the transmission network operator depends on the characteristic of the power market and the topology of the transmission network. Also, the second model, which considers interactions between generation and transmission sectors, yields higher social welfare in the electric power market, than the third model where generation firms and transmission network operator make investment decisions separately.

Transmission dispatch and congestion management in open market systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Risheng

This thesis is located in the domain of electricity supply industry restructuring. It deals with emerging issues, whose understanding is essential to advancing knowledge of open access transmission theory and proceeds to develop approaches for solving the transmission dispatch and congestion management problem. An overview of current trends and experiences in utility restructuring and the main models for restructuring, as well as the classifications of system operators, is first presented. A fully unbundled competitive electricity market model, called the bilateral/multilateral trades model, is then developed. A survey of current research in transmission dispatch and congestion management is included with discussion of transmission capacity and ancillary services. A methodology for the power dispatch problem in a structure dominated by bilateral and multilateral transmission contracts is presented. Group structures are mathematically formulated and explored and three basic types of curtailment strategies proposed for use by market participants. A more complex model is then developed, which takes into account the co-existence of bilateral and multilateral contracts with pool type dynamic supplies and demands based on bids and market clearing prices. An integrated dispatch strategy to reconcile all three types of transactions (bilateral, multilateral and pool) is then developed. Prioritization of electricity transactions and related curtailment strategies are explored and a mechanism for coordination between market participants to achieve additional economic advantages is described. A theory of security based rescheduling is presented in order to investigate the security-related aspects of operation in an unbundled and deregulated system. The impact of post-contingency corrective capability on optimal rescheduling results has been identified and the advantage of incorporating post-contingency corrective rescheduling into the objective function demonstrated. Finally, integrated congestion management procedures in real-time system operation and in forward energy markets are developed. Market price response and coordination of dispatch by the ISO are incorporated to achieve an overall strategy.

Critical comparison of several order-book models for stock-market fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slanina, F.

2008-01-01

Far-from-equilibrium models of interacting particles in one dimension are used as a basis for modelling the stock-market fluctuations. Particle types and their positions are interpreted as buy and sel orders placed on a price axis in the order book. We revisit some modifications of well-known models, starting with the Bak-Paczuski-Shubik model. We look at the four decades old Stigler model and investigate its variants. One of them is the simplified version of the Genoa artificial market. The list of studied models is completed by the models of Maslov and Daniels et al. Generically, in all cases we compare the return distribution, absolute return autocorrelation and the value of the Hurst exponent. It turns out that none of the models reproduces satisfactorily all the empirical data, but the most promising candidates for further development are the Genoa artificial market and the Maslov model with moderate order evaporation.

About the development strategies of power plant in energy market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duinea, Adelaida Mihaela

2017-12-01

The paper aims at identifying and assessing the revenues and costs incurred by various modernization and modernization-development strategies for a power plant in order to optimize the electric and thermal energy are produced and to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the main performance indicators. The Romanian energy system and the energy market have gone a long transition way, from the vertically integrated model, the responsibility for the delivery of the electricity comes exclusively to a state monopoly, to a decentralized system, characterized by the decentralization of production and transport, respectively distribution activities. Romania chose the liberal market model where the relations between the actors in the market - producers and suppliers free to make sales and purchase transactions for electrical energy - are mostly governed by contracts, which may be either bilaterally negotiated or are already regulated. Therefore, the importance of understanding the development trend of the Romanian energy market lies in its economic effects upon the solutions which could be adopted for the evolution of the cogeneration power plant in question.

New drug adoption models: a review and assessment of future needs.

PubMed

Agrawal, M; Calantone, R J

1995-01-01

New drug products today are the key to survival in the pharmaceutical industry. However, the new product development process in the pharmaceutical industry also happens to be one of the riskiest and most expensive undertakings because of the huge research and development costs involved. Consequently market forecasting of new pharmaceutical products takes on added importance if the formidable investments are to be recovered. New drug adoption models provide the marketer with a means to assess new product potential. Although several adoption models are available in the marketing literature for assessing potential of common consumer goods, the unique characteristics of the prescription drug market makes it necessary to examine the current state of pharmaceutical innovations. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to: (1) review new drug adoption models in the pharmaceutical literature, (2) evaluate the existing models of new drug adoption using the ten criteria for a good model as prescribed by Zaltman and Wallendorf (1983), and (3) provide an overall assessment and a ¿prescription¿ for better forecasting of new drug products.

A strategy for controlling the marketing of tobacco products: a regulated market model

PubMed Central

Borland, R

2003-01-01

Objective: To outline a novel strategy for controlling the tobacco market. Arguments: More comprehensive controls over the tobacco market are essential and long overdue. Effective controls need to encourage the development of less harmful products; control commercial communication to ensure that potential harms are highlighted relative to any benefits; and provide mechanisms to move consumers away from tobacco use, or at least towards less harmful alternatives. Achieving this by regulating the existing industry is one strategy. This paper puts the case for an alternative: to have marketing controlled by an agency (called here the Tobacco Products Agency, or TPA) which tendered to manufacturers for product and which distributed to retailers in ways that reduce incentives to bend or break the law. The TPA would be backed by legislation that made tobacco a controlled substance with possession sale and use only allowed as permitted by the regulations, which in reality would be only as provided by the TPA. Conclusions: The overall effect of such a model, which we call a "regulated market model", would be to eliminate most of the incentives and remaining opportunities for commercial promotion of tobacco and to create incentives to encourage the development of less harmful tobacco products. Such a model preserves the competition inherent in a free market, but directs it towards the challenge of reducing the harm from tobacco use. PMID:14660771

A strategy for controlling the marketing of tobacco products: a regulated market model.

PubMed

Borland, R

2003-12-01

To outline a novel strategy for controlling the tobacco market. More comprehensive controls over the tobacco market are essential and long overdue. Effective controls need to encourage the development of less harmful products; control commercial communication to ensure that potential harms are highlighted relative to any benefits; and provide mechanisms to move consumers away from tobacco use, or at least towards less harmful alternatives. Achieving this by regulating the existing industry is one strategy. This paper puts the case for an alternative: to have marketing controlled by an agency (called here the Tobacco Products Agency, or TPA) which tendered to manufacturers for product and which distributed to retailers in ways that reduce incentives to bend or break the law. The TPA would be backed by legislation that made tobacco a controlled substance with possession sale and use only allowed as permitted by the regulations, which in reality would be only as provided by the TPA. The overall effect of such a model, which we call a "regulated market model", would be to eliminate most of the incentives and remaining opportunities for commercial promotion of tobacco and to create incentives to encourage the development of less harmful tobacco products. Such a model preserves the competition inherent in a free market, but directs it towards the challenge of reducing the harm from tobacco use.

Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, Ofir David

Estimates from the World Wind Energy Association assert that world total wind power installed capacity climbed from 18 Gigawatt (GW) to 152 GW from 2000 to 2009. Moreover, according to their predictions, by the end of 2010 global wind power capacity will reach 190 GW. Since electricity is a unique commodity, this remarkable expansion brings forward several key economic questions regarding the integration of significant amount of wind power capacity into deregulated electricity markets. The overall dissertation objective is to develop a comprehensive theoretical framework that enables the modeling of the performance and outcome of wind-integrated electricity markets. This is relevant because the state of knowledge of modeling electricity markets is insufficient for the purpose of wind power considerations. First, there is a need to decide about a consistent representation of deregulated electricity markets. Surprisingly, the related body of literature does not agree on the very economic basics of modeling electricity markets. That is important since we need to capture the fundamentals of electricity markets before we introduce wind power to our study. For example, the structure of the electric industry is a key. If market power is present, the integration of wind power has large consequences on welfare distribution. Since wind power uncertainty changes the dynamics of information it also impacts the ability to manipulate market prices. This is because the quantity supplied by wind energy is not a decision variable. Second, the intermittent spatial nature of wind over a geographical region is important because the market value of wind power capacity is derived from its statistical properties. Once integrated into the market, the distribution of wind will impact the price of electricity produced from conventional sources of energy. Third, although wind power forecasting has improved in recent years, at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards, forecasting precision is still low. Therefore, it is crucial that the uncertainty in forecasting wind power is considered when modeling trading behavior. Our theoretical framework is based on finding a symmetric Cournot-Nash equilibrium in double-sided auctions in both forwards and spot electricity markets. The theoretical framework allows for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, a model of electricity markets that explain two main empirical findings; the existence of forwards premium and spot market mark-ups. That is a significant contribution since so far forward premiums have been explained exclusively by the assumption of risk-averse behavior while spot mark-ups are the outcome of the body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. In the next step, we extend the theoretical framework to account for deregulated electricity markets with wind power. Modeling a wind-integrated electricity market allows us to analyze market outcomes with respect to three main factors; the introduction of uncertainty from the supply side, ownership of wind power capacity and the geographical diversification of wind power capacity. For the purpose of modeling trade in electricity forwards one should simulate the information agents have regarding future availability of aggregate wind power. This is particularly important for modeling accurately traders' ability to predict the spot price distribution. We develop a novel numerical methodology for the simulation of the conditional distribution of regional wind power at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards. Finally, we put the theoretical framework and the numerical methodology developed in this study to work by providing a detailed computational experiment examining electricity market outcomes for a particular expansion path of wind power capacity.

Line managers as marketers.

PubMed

Rynne, T J

1986-09-01

Many hospital administrators and boards of directors, having overcome their initial opposition to advertising and hired a marketing professional, are wondering why their marketing programs have not accomplished all that they had hoped. The answer lies in their perception of who is responsible for marketing. Marketing is not a specialty separate from the disciplines of management--it is a basic management skill. Its goal is to satisfy the customer by providing products and services that meet the customer's needs, wants, and preferences. Line managers must understand the hospital's customers and make the critical day-to-day differences in satisfying them. They are the hospital's front-line marketers, and the marketing department's role is to support them in this function. The marketing department should develop the line managers' marketing skills by furnishing them with the appropriate tools: formats, models, examples, and instructions. In addition, the marketing staff should provide such specialized services as marketing research, ad agency management, and development of communications.

Network model of bilateral power markets based on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yang; Liu, Junyong; Li, Furong; Yan, Zhanxin; Zhang, Li

2014-06-01

The bilateral power transaction (BPT) mode becomes a typical market organization with the restructuring of electric power industry, the proper model which could capture its characteristics is in urgent need. However, the model is lacking because of this market organization's complexity. As a promising approach to modeling complex systems, complex networks could provide a sound theoretical framework for developing proper simulation model. In this paper, a complex network model of the BPT market is proposed. In this model, price advantage mechanism is a precondition. Unlike other general commodity transactions, both of the financial layer and the physical layer are considered in the model. Through simulation analysis, the feasibility and validity of the model are verified. At same time, some typical statistical features of BPT network are identified. Namely, the degree distribution follows the power law, the clustering coefficient is low and the average path length is a bit long. Moreover, the topological stability of the BPT network is tested. The results show that the network displays a topological robustness to random market member's failures while it is fragile against deliberate attacks, and the network could resist cascading failure to some extent. These features are helpful for making decisions and risk management in BPT markets.

a Statistical Dynamic Approach to Structural Evolution of Complex Capital Market Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Xiao; Chai, Li H.

As an important part of modern financial systems, capital market has played a crucial role on diverse social resource allocations and economical exchanges. Beyond traditional models and/or theories based on neoclassical economics, considering capital markets as typical complex open systems, this paper attempts to develop a new approach to overcome some shortcomings of the available researches. By defining the generalized entropy of capital market systems, a theoretical model and nonlinear dynamic equation on the operations of capital market are proposed from statistical dynamic perspectives. The US security market from 1995 to 2001 is then simulated and analyzed as a typical case. Some instructive results are discussed and summarized.

Triangle Computer Science Distinguished Lecture Series

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-30

scientific inquiry - the cell, the brain, the market - as well as in the models developed by scientists over the centuries for studying them. Human...the great objects of scientific inquiry - the cell, the brain, the market - as well as in the models developed by scientists over the centuries for...in principle , secure system operation can be achieved. Massive-Scale Streaming Analytics David Bader, Georgia Institute of Technology (telecast from

Effects off system factors on the economics of and demand for small solar thermal power systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Market penetration as a function time, SPS performance factors, and market/economic considerations was estimated, and commercialization strategies were formulated. A market analysis task included personal interviews and supplemental mail surveys to acquire statistical data and to identify and measure attitudes, reactions and intentions of prospective SPS users. Interviews encompassed three ownership classes of electric utilities and industrial firms in the SIC codes for energy consumption. A market demand model was developed which utilized the data base developed, and projected energy price and consumption data to perform sensitivity analyses and estimate potential market for SPS.

Effects off system factors on the economics of and demand for small solar thermal power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1981-09-01

Market penetration as a function time, SPS performance factors, and market/economic considerations was estimated, and commercialization strategies were formulated. A market analysis task included personal interviews and supplemental mail surveys to acquire statistical data and to identify and measure attitudes, reactions and intentions of prospective SPS users. Interviews encompassed three ownership classes of electric utilities and industrial firms in the SIC codes for energy consumption. A market demand model was developed which utilized the data base developed, and projected energy price and consumption data to perform sensitivity analyses and estimate potential market for SPS.

Models for electricity market efficiency and bidding strategy analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Hui

This dissertation studies models for the analysis of market efficiency and bidding behaviors of market participants in electricity markets. Simulation models are developed to estimate how transmission and operational constraints affect the competitive benchmark and market prices based on submitted bids. This research contributes to the literature in three aspects. First, transmission and operational constraints, which have been neglected in most empirical literature, are considered in the competitive benchmark estimation model. Second, the effects of operational and transmission constraints on market prices are estimated through two models based on the submitted bids of market participants. Third, these models are applied to analyze the efficiency of the Electric Reliability Council Of Texas (ERCOT) real-time energy market by simulating its operations for the time period from January 2002 to April 2003. The characteristics and available information for the ERCOT market are considered. In electricity markets, electric firms compete through both spot market bidding and bilateral contract trading. A linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium (SFE) model with transmission constraints is proposed in this dissertation to analyze the bidding strategies with forward contracts. The research contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, we combine forward contracts, transmission constraints, and multi-period strategy (an obligation for firms to bid consistently over an extended time horizon such as a day or an hour) into the linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium framework. As an ex-ante model, it can provide qualitative insights into firms' behaviors. Second, the bidding strategies related to Transmission Congestion Rights (TCRs) are discussed by interpreting TCRs as linear combination of forwards. Third, the model is a general one in the sense that there is no limitation on the number of firms and scale of the transmission network, which can have asymmetric linear marginal cost structures. In addition to theoretical analysis, we apply our model to simulate the ERCOT real-time market from January 2002 to April 2003. The effects of forward contracts on the ERCOT market are evaluated through the results. It is shown that the model is able to capture features of bidding behavior in the market.

Comparison study of global and local approaches describing critical phenomena on the Polish stock exchange market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czarnecki, Łukasz; Grech, Dariusz; Pamuła, Grzegorz

2008-12-01

We confront global and local methods to analyze the financial crash-like events on the Polish financial market from the critical phenomena point of view. These methods are based on the analysis of log-periodicity and the local fractal properties of financial time series in the vicinity of phase transitions (crashes). The whole history (1991-2008) of Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG) describing the largest developing financial market in Europe, is analyzed in a daily time horizon. We find that crash-like events on the Polish financial market are described better by the log-divergent price model decorated with log-periodic behavior than the corresponding power-law-divergent price model. Predictions coming from log-periodicity scenario are verified for all main crashes that took place in WIG history. It is argued that crash predictions within log-periodicity model strongly depend on the amount of data taken to make a fit and therefore are likely to contain huge inaccuracies. Turning to local fractal description, we calculate the so-called local (time dependent) Hurst exponent H for the WIG time series and we find the dependence between the behavior of the local fractal properties of the WIG time series and the crashes appearance on the financial market. The latter method seems to work better than the global approach - both for developing as for developed markets. The current situation on the market, particularly related to the Fed intervention in September’07 and the situation on the market immediately after this intervention is also analyzed from the fractional Brownian motion point of view.

An Experimental Model for Market Penetration.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caren, William L.

1987-01-01

A plan for college market penetration that has been successful in increasing the applicant pool for one institution is outlined and discussed. It includes development of performance objectives, a schedule, a promotional plan, market survey, and promotional activities including alumni, media, and other community resources. (MSE)

Source-Message-Receiver in Integrated Marketing Communication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Broussard, Sharee LeBlanc

2011-01-01

This is an abbreviation of the author's dissertation. Because integrated marketing communication (IMC) research has traditionally been problematic, this study used an existing scale to determine that higher educational institutional advancement (alumni, marketing-communications, development) is an appropriate venue to study the process model of…

Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core.

PubMed

Fang, Haiyang; Jiang, Dali; Yang, Tinghong; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing

2018-01-01

Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model.

Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core

PubMed Central

Jiang, Dali; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing

2018-01-01

Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model. PMID:29370201

Multi-period natural gas market modeling Applications, stochastic extensions and solution approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egging, Rudolf Gerardus

This dissertation develops deterministic and stochastic multi-period mixed complementarity problems (MCP) for the global natural gas market, as well as solution approaches for large-scale stochastic MCP. The deterministic model is unique in the combination of the level of detail of the actors in the natural gas markets and the transport options, the detailed regional and global coverage, the multi-period approach with endogenous capacity expansions for transportation and storage infrastructure, the seasonal variation in demand and the representation of market power according to Nash-Cournot theory. The model is applied to several scenarios for the natural gas market that cover the formation of a cartel by the members of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, a low availability of unconventional gas in the United States, and cost reductions in long-distance gas transportation. 1 The results provide insights in how different regions are affected by various developments, in terms of production, consumption, traded volumes, prices and profits of market participants. The stochastic MCP is developed and applied to a global natural gas market problem with four scenarios for a time horizon until 2050 with nineteen regions and containing 78,768 variables. The scenarios vary in the possibility of a gas market cartel formation and varying depletion rates of gas reserves in the major gas importing regions. Outcomes for hedging decisions of market participants show some significant shifts in the timing and location of infrastructure investments, thereby affecting local market situations. A first application of Benders decomposition (BD) is presented to solve a large-scale stochastic MCP for the global gas market with many hundreds of first-stage capacity expansion variables and market players exerting various levels of market power. The largest problem solved successfully using BD contained 47,373 variables of which 763 first-stage variables, however using BD did not result in shorter solution times relative to solving the extensive-forms. Larger problems, up to 117,481 variables, were solved in extensive-form, but not when applying BD due to numerical issues. It is discussed how BD could significantly reduce the solution time of large-scale stochastic models, but various challenges remain and more research is needed to assess the potential of Benders decomposition for solving large-scale stochastic MCP. 1 www.gecforum.org

Advanced Communication and Control Solutions of Distributed Energy Resources (DER)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Asgeirsson, Haukur; Seguin, Richard; Sherding, Cameron

2007-01-10

This report covers work performed in Phase II of a two phase project whose objective was to demonstrate the aggregation of multiple Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and to offer them into the energy market. The Phase I work (DE-FC36-03CH11161) created an integrated, but distributed, system and procedures to monitor and control multiple DERs from numerous manufacturers connected to the electric distribution system. Procedures were created which protect the distribution network and personnel that may be working on the network. Using the web as the communication medium for control and monitoring of the DERs, the integration of information and security wasmore » accomplished through the use of industry standard protocols such as secure SSL,VPN and ICCP. The primary objective of Phase II was to develop the procedures for marketing the power of the Phase I aggregated DERs in the energy market, increase the number of DER units, and implement the marketing procedures (interface with ISOs) for the DER generated power. The team partnered with the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO), the local ISO, to address the energy market and demonstrate the economic dispatch of DERs in response to market signals. The selection of standards-based communication technologies offers the ability of the system to be deployed and integrated with other utilities’ resources. With the use of a data historian technology to facilitate the aggregation, the developed algorithms and procedures can be verified, audited, and modified. The team has demonstrated monitoring and control of multiple DERs as outlined in phase I report including procedures to perform these operations in a secure and safe manner. In Phase II, additional DER units were added. We also expanded on our phase I work to enhance communication security and to develop the market model of having DERs, both customer and utility owned, participate in the energy market. We are proposing a two-part DER energy market model--a utility need business model and an independent energy aggregator-business model. The approach of developing two group models of DER energy participation in the market is unique. The Detroit Edison (DECo, Utility)-led team includes: DTE Energy Technologies (Dtech, DER provider), Electrical Distribution Design (EDD, Virginia Tech company supporting EPRI’s Distribution Engineering Workstation, DEW), Systems Integration Specialists Company (SISCO, economic scheduling and real-time protocol integrator), and OSIsoft (PI software system for managing real-time information). This team is focused on developing the application engineering, including software systems necessary for DER’s integration, control and sale into the market place. Phase II Highlights Installed and tested an ICCP link with SSL (security) between DECo, the utility, and DTE Energy Technologies (DTECH), the aggregator, making DER data available to the utility for both monitoring and control. Installed and tested PI process book with circuit & DER operational models for DECo SOC/ROC operator’s use for monitoring of both utility circuit and customer DER parameters. The PI Process Book models also included DER control for the DECo SOC/ROC operators, which was tested and demonstrated control. The DER Tagging and Operating Procedures were developed, which allowed that control to be done in a safe manner, were modified for required MOC/MISO notification procedures. The Distribution Engineering Workstation (DEW) was modified to include temperature normalized load research statistics, using a 30 hour day-ahead weather feed. This allowed day-ahead forecasting of the customer load profile and the entire circuit to determine overload and low voltage problems. This forecast at the point of common coupling was passed to DTech DR SOC for use in their economic dispatch algorithm. Standard Work Instructions were developed for DER notification, sale, and operation into the MISO market. A software mechanism consisting of a suite of new and revised functionality was developed that integrated with the local ISO such that offers can be made electronically without human intervention. A suite of software was developed by DR SOC enabling DER usage in real time and day-ahead: Generation information file exchange with PI and the utility power flow A utility day-ahead information file Energy Offer Web Service Market Result Web Service Real-Time Meter Data Web Service Real-Time Notification Web Service Registered over 20 DER with MISO in Demand Response Market and demonstrated electronic sale to MISO.« less

Mining Marketing Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

MarketMiner(R) Products, a line of automated marketing analysis tools manufactured by MarketMiner, Inc., can benefit organizations that perform significant amounts of direct marketing. MarketMiner received a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract from NASA's Johnson Space Center to develop the software as a data modeling tool for space mission applications. The technology was then built into the company current products to provide decision support for business and marketing applications. With the tool, users gain valuable information about customers and prospects from existing data in order to increase sales and profitability. MarketMiner(R) is a registered trademark of MarketMiner, Inc.

A decision theoretical approach for diffusion promotion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Fei; Liu, Yun

2009-09-01

In order to maximize cost efficiency from scarce marketing resources, marketers are facing the problem of which group of consumers to target for promotions. We propose to use a decision theoretical approach to model this strategic situation. According to one promotion model that we develop, marketers balance between probabilities of successful persuasion and the expected profits on a diffusion scale, before making their decisions. In the other promotion model, the cost for identifying influence information is considered, and marketers are allowed to ignore individual heterogeneity. We apply the proposed approach to two threshold influence models, evaluate the utility of each promotion action, and provide discussions about the best strategy. Our results show that efforts for targeting influentials or easily influenced people might be redundant under some conditions.

Cross-sectional test of the Fama-French three-factor model: Evidence from Bangladesh stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Md. Zobaer; Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah

2014-09-01

Stock market is an important part of a country's economy. It supports the country's economic development and progress by encouraging the efficiency and profitability of firms. This research was designed to examine the risk-return association of companies in the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) market of Bangladesh by using the Fama-French three-factor model structure. The model is based on three factors, which are stock beta, SMB (difference in returns of the portfolio with small market capitalisation minus that with big market capitalisation) and HML (difference in returns of the portfolio with high book-to-market ratio minus that with low book-to-market ratio). This study focused on the DSE market as it is one of the frontier emerging stock markets of South Asia. For this study, monthly stock returns from 71 non-financial companies were used for the period of January 2002 to December 2011. DSI Index was used as a proxy for the market portfolio and Bangladesh government 3-Month T-bill rate was used as the proxy for the risk-free asset. It was found that large capital stocks outperform small capital stocks and stocks with lower book-to-market ratios outperform stocks with higher book-to-market ratios in the context of Bangladesh stock market.

Marketing and Quality of Life: A Model for Improving Perinatal Health Status

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dever, G. E. Alan; Smith, Leah T.; Stamps, Bunnie V.

2005-01-01

Introduction: A marketing/business model using non-traditional Quality of Life measures was developed to assess perinatal health status on a micro-geographic level. This perinatal health status needs assessment study for Georgia South Central Region was conducted for the years 1994-1999. The model may be applied to any geographic unit in the…

A Career and Learning Transitional Model for Those Experiencing Labour Market Disadvantage

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cameron, Roslyn

2009-01-01

Research investigating the learning and career transitions of those disadvantaged in the labour market has resulted in the development of a four-component model to enable disadvantaged groups to navigate learning and career transitions. The four components of the model include: the self-concept; learning and recognition; career and life planning;…

A queueing theory description of fat-tailed price returns in imperfect financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamba, H.

2010-09-01

In a financial market, for agents with long investment horizons or at times of severe market stress, it is often changes in the asset price that act as the trigger for transactions or shifts in investment position. This suggests the use of price thresholds to simulate agent behavior over much longer timescales than are currently used in models of order-books. We show that many phenomena, routinely ignored in efficient market theory, can be systematically introduced into an otherwise efficient market, resulting in models that robustly replicate the most important stylized facts. We then demonstrate a close link between such threshold models and queueing theory, with large price changes corresponding to the busy periods of a single-server queue. The distribution of the busy periods is known to have excess kurtosis and non-exponential decay under various assumptions on the queue parameters. Such an approach may prove useful in the development of mathematical models for rapid deleveraging and panics in financial markets, and the stress-testing of financial institutions.

Strategic alliances and market risk.

PubMed

Havenaar, Matthias; Hiscocks, Peter

2012-08-01

Strategic alliances in product development and marketing are crucial to the biotechnology industry. Many alliances, however, are terminated before the drug reaches the market. In this article we make the case that strategic alliances can fail because of how they are negotiated. Alliance contracts are often inflexible and do not allow for changes in market conditions. We propose a model for contract valuation that can assist biotech and/or pharma deal makers in negotiating alliances that have a higher chance of survival in uncertain market conditions. The model makes use of variable royalties and milestone payments. Because licensing is key to the biotech and/or pharma business model this article will be of interest not only to professionals in licensing, but to all professionals active in the industry. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The importance of socio-economic context for social marketing models for improving reproductive health: evidence from 555 years of program experience.

PubMed

Meekers, Dominique; Rahaim, Stephen

2005-01-27

Over the past two decades, social marketing programs have become an important element of the national family planning and HIV prevention strategy in several developing countries. As yet, there has not been any comprehensive empirical assessment to determine which of several social marketing models is most effective for a given socio-economic context. Such an assessment is urgently needed to inform the design of future social marketing programs, and to avoid that programs are designed using an ineffective model. This study addresses this issue using a database of annual statistics about reproductive health oriented social marketing programs in over 70 countries. In total, the database covers 555 years of program experience with social marketing programs that distribute and promote the use of oral contraceptives and condoms. Specifically, our analysis assesses to what extent the model used by different reproductive health social marketing programs has varied across different socio-economic contexts. We then use random effects regression to test in which socio-economic context each of the models is most successful at increasing use of socially marketed oral contraceptives and condoms. The results show that there has been a tendency to design reproductive health social marketing program with a management structure that matches the local context. However, the evidence also shows that this has not always been the case. While socio-economic context clearly influences the effectiveness of some of the social marketing models, program maturity and the size of the target population appear equally important. To maximize the effectiveness of future social marketing programs, it is essential that more effort is devoted to ensuring that such programs are designed using the model or approach that is most suitable for the local context.

The importance of socio-economic context for social marketing models for improving reproductive health: Evidence from 555 years of program experience

PubMed Central

Meekers, Dominique; Rahaim, Stephen

2005-01-01

Background Over the past two decades, social marketing programs have become an important element of the national family planning and HIV prevention strategy in several developing countries. As yet, there has not been any comprehensive empirical assessment to determine which of several social marketing models is most effective for a given socio-economic context. Such an assessment is urgently needed to inform the design of future social marketing programs, and to avoid that programs are designed using an ineffective model. Methods This study addresses this issue using a database of annual statistics about reproductive health oriented social marketing programs in over 70 countries. In total, the database covers 555 years of program experience with social marketing programs that distribute and promote the use of oral contraceptives and condoms. Specifically, our analysis assesses to what extent the model used by different reproductive health social marketing programs has varied across different socio-economic contexts. We then use random effects regression to test in which socio-economic context each of the models is most successful at increasing use of socially marketed oral contraceptives and condoms. Results The results show that there has been a tendency to design reproductive health social marketing program with a management structure that matches the local context. However, the evidence also shows that this has not always been the case. While socio-economic context clearly influences the effectiveness of some of the social marketing models, program maturity and the size of the target population appear equally important. Conclusions To maximize the effectiveness of future social marketing programs, it is essential that more effort is devoted to ensuring that such programs are designed using the model or approach that is most suitable for the local context. PMID:15676068

The Process of Residential Real Estate Development

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-01-01

Having quality model homes and well planned home shows is important. The marketing strategy must be adaptable and flexible to changing market conditions...As the tastes of consumers change, so too does the success of many a project. The marketing strategy must incorporate these changes and provide the

Essays on price dynamics, discovery, and dynamic threshold effects among energy spot markets in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Haesun

2005-12-01

Given the role electricity and natural gas sectors play in the North American economy, an understanding of how markets for these commodities interact is important. This dissertation independently characterizes the price dynamics of major electricity and natural gas spot markets in North America by combining directed acyclic graphs with time series analyses. Furthermore, the dissertation explores a generalization of price difference bands associated with the law of one price. Interdependencies among 11 major electricity spot markets are examined in Chapter II using a vector autoregression model. Results suggest that the relationships between the markets vary by time. Western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. At longer time horizons these separations disappear. Palo Verde is the important spot market in the west for price discovery. Southwest Power Pool is the dominant market in Eastern Interconnected System for price discovery. Interdependencies among eight major natural gas spot markets are investigated using a vector error correction model and the Greedy Equivalence Search Algorithm in Chapter III. Findings suggest that the eight price series are tied together through six long-run cointegration relationships, supporting the argument that the natural gas market has developed into a single integrated market in North America since deregulation. Results indicate that price discovery tends to occur in the excess consuming regions and move to the excess producing regions. Across North America, the U.S. Midwest region, represented by the Chicago spot market, is the most important for price discovery. The Ellisburg-Leidy Hub in Pennsylvania and Malin Hub in Oregon are important for eastern and western markets. In Chapter IV, a threshold vector error correction model is applied to the natural gas markets to examine nonlinearities in adjustments to the law of one price. Results show that there are nonlinear adjustments to the law of one price in seven pair-wise markets. Four alternative cases for the law of one price are presented as a theoretical background. A methodology is developed for finding a threshold cointegration model that accounts for seasonality in the threshold levels. Results indicate that dynamic threshold effects vary depending on geographical location and whether the markets are excess producing or excess consuming markets.

Operationalizing strategic marketing.

PubMed

Chambers, S B

1989-05-01

The strategic marketing process, like any administrative practice, is far simpler to conceptualize than operationalize within an organization. It is for this reason that this chapter focused on providing practical techniques and strategies for implementing the strategic marketing process. First and foremost, the marketing effort needs to be marketed to the various publics of the organization. This chapter advocated the need to organize the marketing analysis into organizational, competitive, and market phases, and it provided examples of possible designs of the phases. The importance and techniques for exhausting secondary data sources and conducting efficient primary data collection methods were explained and illustrated. Strategies for determining marketing opportunities and threats, as well as segmenting markets, were detailed. The chapter provided techniques for developing marketing strategies, including considering the five patterns of coverage available; determining competitor's position and the marketing mix; examining the stage of the product life cycle; and employing a consumer decision model. The importance of developing explicit objectives, goals, and detailed action plans was emphasized. Finally, helpful hints for operationalizing the communication variable and evaluating marketing programs were provided.

Collective behavior of stock price movements in an emerging market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Raj Kumar; Sinha, Sitabhra

2007-10-01

To investigate the universality of the structure of interactions in different markets, we analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of stock price fluctuations in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. We find that this emerging market exhibits strong correlations in the movement of stock prices compared to developed markets, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This is shown to be due to the dominant influence of a common market mode on the stock prices. By comparison, interactions between related stocks, e.g., those belonging to the same business sector, are much weaker. This lack of distinct sector identity in emerging markets is explicitly shown by reconstructing the network of mutually interacting stocks. Spectral analysis of C for NSE reveals that, the few largest eigenvalues deviate from the bulk of the spectrum predicted by random matrix theory, but they are far fewer in number compared to, e.g., NYSE. We show this to be due to the relative weakness of intrasector interactions between stocks, compared to the market mode, by modeling stock price dynamics with a two-factor model. Our results suggest that the emergence of an internal structure comprising multiple groups of strongly coupled components is a signature of market development.

Artificial neural network and SARIMA based models for power load forecasting in Turkish electricity market

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Load information plays an important role in deregulated electricity markets, since it is the primary factor to make critical decisions on production planning, day-to-day operations, unit commitment and economic dispatch. Being able to predict the load for a short term, which covers one hour to a few days, equips power generation facilities and traders with an advantage. With the deregulation of electricity markets, a variety of short term load forecasting models are developed. Deregulation in Turkish Electricity Market has started in 2001 and liberalization is still in progress with rules being effective in its predefined schedule. However, there is a very limited number of studies for Turkish Market. In this study, we introduce two different models for current Turkish Market using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and present their comparative performances. Building models that cope with the dynamic nature of deregulated market and are able to run in real-time is the main contribution of this study. We also use our ANN based model to evaluate the effect of several factors, which are claimed to have effect on electrical load. PMID:28426739

Artificial neural network and SARIMA based models for power load forecasting in Turkish electricity market.

PubMed

Bozkurt, Ömer Özgür; Biricik, Göksel; Tayşi, Ziya Cihan

2017-01-01

Load information plays an important role in deregulated electricity markets, since it is the primary factor to make critical decisions on production planning, day-to-day operations, unit commitment and economic dispatch. Being able to predict the load for a short term, which covers one hour to a few days, equips power generation facilities and traders with an advantage. With the deregulation of electricity markets, a variety of short term load forecasting models are developed. Deregulation in Turkish Electricity Market has started in 2001 and liberalization is still in progress with rules being effective in its predefined schedule. However, there is a very limited number of studies for Turkish Market. In this study, we introduce two different models for current Turkish Market using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and present their comparative performances. Building models that cope with the dynamic nature of deregulated market and are able to run in real-time is the main contribution of this study. We also use our ANN based model to evaluate the effect of several factors, which are claimed to have effect on electrical load.

SPS market analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goff, H. C.

1980-05-01

A market analysis task included personal interviews by GE personnel and supplemental mail surveys to acquire statistical data and to identify and measure attitudes, reactions and intentions of prospective small solar thermal power systems (SPS) users. Over 500 firms were contacted, including three ownership classes of electric utilities, industrial firms in the top SIC codes for energy consumption, and design engineering firms. A market demand model was developed which utilizes the data base developed by personal interviews and surveys, and projected energy price and consumption data to perform sensitivity analyses and estimate potential markets for SPS.

Evaluating the impacts of farmers' behaviors on a hypothetical agricultural water market based on double auction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Erhu; Cai, Ximing; Brozović, Nicholas; Minsker, Barbara

2017-05-01

Agricultural water markets are considered effective instruments to mitigate the impacts of water scarcity and to increase crop production. However, previous studies have limited understanding of how farmers' behaviors affect the performance of water markets. This study develops an agent-based model to explicitly incorporate farmers' behaviors, namely irrigation behavior (represented by farmers' sensitivity to soil water deficit λ) and bidding behavior (represented by farmers' rent seeking μ and learning rate β), in a hypothetical water market based on a double auction. The model is applied to the Guadalupe River Basin in Texas to simulate a hypothetical agricultural water market under various hydrological conditions. It is found that the joint impacts of the behavioral parameters on the water market are strong and complex. In particular, among the three behavioral parameters, λ affects the water market potential and its impacts on the performance of the water market are significant under most scenarios. The impacts of μ or β on the performance of the water market depend on the other two parameters. The water market could significantly increase crop production only when the following conditions are satisfied: (1) λ is small and (2) μ is small and/or β is large. The first condition requires efficient irrigation scheduling, and the second requires well-developed water market institutions that provide incentives to bid true valuation of water permits.

A social marketing approach to implementing evidence-based practice in VHA QUERI: the TIDES depression collaborative care model.

PubMed

Luck, Jeff; Hagigi, Fred; Parker, Louise E; Yano, Elizabeth M; Rubenstein, Lisa V; Kirchner, JoAnn E

2009-09-28

Collaborative care models for depression in primary care are effective and cost-effective, but difficult to spread to new sites. Translating Initiatives for Depression into Effective Solutions (TIDES) is an initiative to promote evidence-based collaborative care in the U.S. Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Social marketing applies marketing techniques to promote positive behavior change. Described in this paper, TIDES used a social marketing approach to foster national spread of collaborative care models. The approach relied on a sequential model of behavior change and explicit attention to audience segmentation. Segments included VHA national leadership, Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) regional leadership, facility managers, frontline providers, and veterans. TIDES communications, materials and messages targeted each segment, guided by an overall marketing plan. Depression collaborative care based on the TIDES model was adopted by VHA as part of the new Primary Care Mental Health Initiative and associated policies. It is currently in use in more than 50 primary care practices across the United States, and continues to spread, suggesting success for its social marketing-based dissemination strategy. Development, execution and evaluation of the TIDES marketing effort shows that social marketing is a promising approach for promoting implementation of evidence-based interventions in integrated healthcare systems.

A social marketing approach to implementing evidence-based practice in VHA QUERI: the TIDES depression collaborative care model

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Abstract Collaborative care models for depression in primary care are effective and cost-effective, but difficult to spread to new sites. Translating Initiatives for Depression into Effective Solutions (TIDES) is an initiative to promote evidence-based collaborative care in the U.S. Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Social marketing applies marketing techniques to promote positive behavior change. Described in this paper, TIDES used a social marketing approach to foster national spread of collaborative care models. TIDES social marketing approach The approach relied on a sequential model of behavior change and explicit attention to audience segmentation. Segments included VHA national leadership, Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) regional leadership, facility managers, frontline providers, and veterans. TIDES communications, materials and messages targeted each segment, guided by an overall marketing plan. Results Depression collaborative care based on the TIDES model was adopted by VHA as part of the new Primary Care Mental Health Initiative and associated policies. It is currently in use in more than 50 primary care practices across the United States, and continues to spread, suggesting success for its social marketing-based dissemination strategy. Discussion and conclusion Development, execution and evaluation of the TIDES marketing effort shows that social marketing is a promising approach for promoting implementation of evidence-based interventions in integrated healthcare systems. PMID:19785754

Predictability and Prediction for an Experimental Cultural Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colbaugh, Richard; Glass, Kristin; Ormerod, Paul

Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations this social influence decreases the ex ante predictability of the ensuing social dynamics. We claim that, interestingly, these same social forces can increase the extent to which the outcome of a social process can be predicted very early in the process. This paper explores this claim through a theoretical and empirical analysis of the experimental music market described and analyzed in [1]. We propose a very simple model for this music market, assess the predictability of market outcomes through formal analysis of the model, and use insights derived through this analysis to develop algorithms for predicting market share winners, and their ultimate market shares, in the very early stages of the market. The utility of these predictive algorithms is illustrated through analysis of the experimental music market data sets [2].

The strategic use of forward contracts: Applications in power markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lien, Jeffrey Scott

This dissertation develops three theoretical models that analyze forward trading by firms with market power. The models are discussed in the context of recently restructured power markets, but the results can be applied more generally. The first model considers the profitability of large firms in markets with limited economies of scale and free entry. When large firms apply their market power, small firms benefit from the high prices without incurring the costs of restricted output. When entry is considered, and profit opportunity is determined by the cost of entry, this asymmetry creates the "curse of market power;" the long-run profits of large firms are reduced because of their market power. I suggest ways that large power producers can cope with the curse of market power, including the sale of long-term forward contracts. Past research has shown that forward contracts can demonstrate commitment to aggressive behavior to a competing duopolist. I add explicitly modeled entry to this literature, and make the potential entrants the audience of the forward sale. The existence of a forward market decreases equilibrium entry, increases the profits of large firms, and enhances economic efficiency. In the second model, a consumer representative, such as a state government or regulated distribution utility, bargains in the forward market on behalf of end-consumers who cannot organize together in the spot market. The ability to organize in forward markets allows consumers to encourage economic efficiency. When multiple producers are considered, I find that the ability to offer contracts also increases consumer surplus by decreasing the producers' profits. In some specifications of the model, consumers are able to capture the full gains from trade. The third model of this dissertation considers the ability of a large producer to take advantage of anonymity by randomly alternating between forward sales and forward purchases. The large producer uses its market power to always obtain favorable settlement on its forward transactions. Since other participants in the market cannot anticipate the large producer's eventual spot market behavior they cannot effectively arbitrage between markets. I find that forward transaction anonymity leads to spot price destabilization and cost inefficiency.

A revised econometric model of the domestic pallet market

Treesearch

Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

1983-01-01

The purpose of this revised model is to project estimates of consumption and price of wooden pallets in the short term. This model differs from previous ones developed by Schuler and Wallin (1979 and 1980) in the following respects: The structure of the supply side of the market is more realistically identified (from an economic theory point of view) by including...

Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen): Documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sigrin, Benjamin; Gleason, Michael; Preus, Robert

The Distributed Generation Market Demand model (dGen) is a geospatially rich, bottom-up, market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the continental United States through 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed dGen to analyze the key factors that will affect future market demand for distributed solar, wind, storage, and other DER technologies in the United States. The new model builds off, extends, and replaces NREL's SolarDS model (Denholm et al. 2009a), which simulates the market penetration of distributed PV only. Unlike the SolarDS model, dGen can modelmore » various DER technologies under one platform--it currently can simulate the adoption of distributed solar (the dSolar module) and distributed wind (the dWind module) and link with the ReEDS capacity expansion model (Appendix C). The underlying algorithms and datasets in dGen, which improve the representation of customer decision making as well as the spatial resolution of analyses (Figure ES-1), also are improvements over SolarDS.« less

Lapses, infidelities, and creative adaptations: lessons from evaluation of a participatory market development approach in the Andes.

PubMed

Horton, Douglas; Rotondo, Emma; Paz Ybarnegaray, Rodrigo; Hareau, Guy; Devaux, André; Thiele, Graham

2013-08-01

Participatory approaches are frequently recommended for international development programs, but few have been evaluated. From 2007 to 2010 the Andean Change Alliance evaluated an agricultural research and development approach known as the "Participatory Market Chain Approach" (PMCA). Based on a study of four cases, this paper examines the fidelity of implementation, the factors that influenced implementation and results, and the PMCA change model. We identify three types of deviation from the intervention protocol (lapses, creative adaptations, and true infidelities) and five groups of variables that influenced PMCA implementation and results (attributes of the macro context, the market chain, the key actors, rules in use, and the capacity development strategy). There was insufficient information to test the validity of the PMCA change model, but results were greatest where the PMCA was implemented with highest fidelity. Our analysis suggests that the single most critical component of the PMCA is engagement of market agents - not just farmers - throughout the exercise. We present four lessons for planning and evaluating participatory approaches related to the use of action and change models, the importance of monitoring implementation fidelity, the limits of baseline survey data for outcome evaluation, and the importance of capacity development for implementers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic modelling of human exposure to food chemicals and nutrients within the "Montecarlo" project: an exploration of the influence of brand loyalty and market share on intake estimates of intense sweeteners from sugar-free soft drinks.

PubMed

Leclercq, Catherine; Arcella, Davide; Le Donne, Cinzia; Piccinelli, Raffaela; Sette, Stefania; Soggiu, Maria Eleonora

2003-04-11

To get a more realistic view of exposure to food chemicals, risk managers are getting more interested in stochastic modelling as an alternative to deterministic approaches based on conservative assumptions. It allows to take into account all the available information in the concentration of the chemical present in foods and in food consumption patterns. Within the EC-funded "Montecarlo" project, a comprehensive set of mathematical algorithms was developed to take into account all the necessary components for stochastic modelling of a variety of food chemicals, nutrients and ingredients. An appropriate computer software is being developed. Since the concentration of food chemicals may vary among different brands of the same product, consumer behaviour with respect to brands may have an impact on exposure assessments. Numeric experiments were carried out on different ways of incorporating indicators of market share and brand loyalty in the mathematical algorithms developed within the stochastic model of exposure to intense sweeteners from sugar-free beverages. The 95th percentiles of intake were shown to vary according to the inclusion/exclusion of these indicators. The market share should be included in the model especially if the market is not equitably distributed between brands. If brand loyalty data are not available, the model may be run under theoretical scenarios.

An Integrated Model for a Water Leasing System on the Middle Rio Grand, New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brookshire, D. S.; Coursey, D. L.; Tidwell, V. C.; Broadbent, C. D.

2006-12-01

Since 1950 demand for water has more than doubled in the United States. Virtually all water supplies are allocated, leading to the question, where will water come from? The concept of water leasing has gained considerable attention as a volunteer, market-mediated system for transferring water between competing uses. For a water leasing system to be truly effective, detailed knowledge of the available water supply and the factors that affect water demand is critical. Improving understating of the factors that determine residential, industrial, and agricultural demand for water using experimental economics and then integrating with a hydrological model will allow for better understanding of market-based mechanisms potential to allocate water resources effectively. Currently we have three case studies underway, a generalized water leasing system on the Middle Rio Grande, a sophisticated farmer decision process and a study in the Mimbres basin in southern New Mexico. The developed market model utilizes an open market trading system known as a double auction, where buyers and sellers declare their bids and offers to the market. The developed hydrological model utilizes the Upper Rio Grande Water Operations Model (URGWOM) system structure and data for the generalized water leasing system and the farmer decision process, with a different hydrological model being developed for the Mimbres basin. A key coupling between the hydrologic and market models involves tracking the difference in river losses for trades that move water up or down the river. In the experiments the hydrological model runs before the market-trading period to establish water rights, the trading period occurs and the hydrological model then runs a second time to report flows to each reach of the river. Participants in the experiment represent the interests of specific users, including farmers, Native American interests, urban interests and environmental interests. Participants in the experiments are motivated by a utility function specific to each water users needs. Currently twelve experiments have been run in four different climatic scenarios (decreasing, increasing, normal and dry water scenarios) for the generalized water leasing system, and the sophisticated farmer decision process. The results have shown the market to be robust, with multiple trades occurring in each trading year. The trading process is efficient with positive gains being realized from participation in the marketplace. This material is based upon work supported in part by SAHRA (Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas) under the STC Program of the National Science Foundation, Agreement No. EAR-9876800 and through Sandia National Laboratory Research and Development Program. Special thanks go to Kyle Carpenter, Ramon Vasquez, Ann Demint, for programming of various software components and to Jake Grandy and Frannie Miller for help in running the experiments.

A Two Population Model for the Stock Market Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skiadas, Christos H.

The development of the last year disaster in the Stock Markets all over the world gave rise to reconsidering the previous models used. It is clear that, even in an organized international or national context, large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur. This paper explores a two populations' model. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market) by following the main rules present, that is mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. The proposed model has special futures expressed by third order terms providing characteristic stationary points.

System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets - Vol. I, Model Documentation

EIA Publications

2003-01-01

Documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of projections for the International Energy Outlook. The first volume of this report describes the System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) methodology and provides an in-depth explanation of the equations of the model.

Market Model for Resource Allocation in Emerging Sensor Networks with Reinforcement Learning

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yue; Song, Bin; Zhang, Ying; Du, Xiaojiang; Guizani, Mohsen

2016-01-01

Emerging sensor networks (ESNs) are an inevitable trend with the development of the Internet of Things (IoT), and intend to connect almost every intelligent device. Therefore, it is critical to study resource allocation in such an environment, due to the concern of efficiency, especially when resources are limited. By viewing ESNs as multi-agent environments, we model them with an agent-based modelling (ABM) method and deal with resource allocation problems with market models, after describing users’ patterns. Reinforcement learning methods are introduced to estimate users’ patterns and verify the outcomes in our market models. Experimental results show the efficiency of our methods, which are also capable of guiding topology management. PMID:27916841

Modeling strategic competition in hydro-thermal electricity generation markets with cascaded reservoir-hydroelectric generation plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uluca, Basak

This dissertation aims to achieve two goals. The first is to model the strategic interactions of firms that own cascaded reservoir-hydro plants in oligopolistic and mixed oligopolistic hydrothermal electricity generation markets. Although competition in thermal generation has been extensively modeled since the beginning of deregulation, the literature on competition in hydro generation is still limited; in particular, equilibrium models of oligopoly that study the competitive behavior of firms that own reservoir-hydro plants along the same river in hydrothermal electricity generation markets are still under development. In competitive markets, when the reservoirs are located along the same river, the water released from an upstream reservoir for electricity generation becomes input to the immediate downstream reservoir, which may be owned by a competitor, for current or future use. To capture the strategic interactions among firms with cascaded reservoir-hydro plants, the Upstream-Conjecture approach is proposed. Under the Upstream-Conjecture approach, a firm with an upstream reservoir-hydro plant assumes that firms with downstream reservoir-hydro plants will respond to changes in the upstream firm's water release by adjusting their water release by the same amount. The results of the Upstream Conjecture experiments indicate that firms that own upstream reservoirs in a cascade may have incentive to withhold or limit hydro generation, forcing a reduction in the utilization of the downstream hydro generation plants that are owned by competitors. Introducing competition to hydroelectricity generation markets is challenging and ownership allocation of the previously state-owned cascaded reservoir-hydro plants through privatization can have significant impact on the competitiveness of the generation market. The second goal of the dissertation is to extract empirical guidance about best policy choices for the ownership of the state-owned generation plants, including the cascaded reservoir-hydro plants. Specifically, an equilibrium model of oligopoly, where only private firms compete for electricity supply is proposed. Since some electricity generation markets are better characterized as mixed oligopolies, where the public firm coexists with the private firms for electricity supply, and not as oligopolies, another equilibrium model of mixed oligopoly is proposed. The proposed mixed oligopoly equilibrium model is the first implementation of such market structure in electricity markets. The mathematical models developed in this research are applied to the simplified representation of the Turkish electricity generation market to investigate the impact of various ownership allocation scenarios that may result from the privatization of the state owned generation plants, including the cascaded reservoir-hydro plants, on the competitive market outcomes.

Online Certificate Program Moves Participants to Advanced Stages of Concern for Social Marketing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chaudhary, Anil Kumar; Warner, Laura A.; Stofer, Kathryn A.

2017-01-01

Social marketing is an underused strategy that agricultural educators can employ to bring about behavior change. We designed an online certificate program for Extension professionals and other educators based on an identified need for social marketing professional development. The Concerns-Based Adoption Model (CBAM) served as the conceptual…

Space market model development project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bishop, Peter C.

1987-01-01

The objectives of the research program, Space Market Model Development Project, (Phase 1) were: (1) to study the need for business information in the commercial development of space; and (2) to propose a design for an information system to meet the identified needs. Three simultaneous research strategies were used in proceeding toward this goal: (1) to describe the space business information which currently exists; (2) to survey government and business representatives on the information they would like to have; and (3) to investigate the feasibility of generating new economical information about the space industry.

Robust Active Portfolio Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-11-27

the Markowitz mean-variance model led to development of the Capital Asset Pricing Model ( CAPM ) for asset pricing [35, 29, 23] which remains one of the...active portfolio management. Our model uses historical returns and equilibrium expected returns predicted by the CAPM to identify assets that are...incorrectly priced in the market. There is a fundamental inconsistency between the CAPM and active portfolio management. The CAPM assumes that markets are

A decision-making process model of young online shoppers.

PubMed

Lin, Chin-Feng; Wang, Hui-Fang

2008-12-01

Based on the concepts of brand equity, means-end chain, and Web site trust, this study proposes a novel model called the consumption decision-making process of adolescents (CDMPA) to understand adolescents' Internet consumption habits and behavioral intention toward particular sporting goods. The findings of the CDMPA model can help marketers understand adolescents' consumption preferences and habits for developing effective Internet marketing strategies.

SPS market analysis. [small solar thermal power systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goff, H. C.

1980-01-01

A market analysis task included personal interviews by GE personnel and supplemental mail surveys to acquire statistical data and to identify and measure attitudes, reactions and intentions of prospective small solar thermal power systems (SPS) users. Over 500 firms were contacted, including three ownership classes of electric utilities, industrial firms in the top SIC codes for energy consumption, and design engineering firms. A market demand model was developed which utilizes the data base developed by personal interviews and surveys, and projected energy price and consumption data to perform sensitivity analyses and estimate potential markets for SPS.

Determinant of securitization asset pricing in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakri, M. H.; Ali, R.; Ismail, S.; Sufian, F.; Baharom, A. H.

2014-12-01

Malaysian firms have been reported involve in Asset Back Securities since 1986s where Cagamas is a pioneer. This research aims to examine the factor influencing primary market spread. Least square method and regression analysis are applied for the study period 2004-2012. The result shows one determinants in internal regression model and three determinants in external regression influence or contribute to the primary market spread and are statistically significant in developing the securitization in Malaysia. It can be concluded that transaction size significantly contribute to the determinant primary market spread in internal regression model while liquidity, transaction size and crisis is significant in both regression model. From five hypotheses, three hypotheses support that the determinants have a relationship with primary market spread.

Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Eddie Chi-Man; Wang, Ziyou

2015-05-01

Academia takes interest in cyclicality of real estate market. Compared to various findings on housing cycles, no literature takes insight into the cycles of securitized property markets. To address the issue, a nonlinear model is developed to probe into the characteristics of cycles in global markets (US, UK, Australia, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) over the last 23 years. The findings suggest that (a) cointegrating relationships influence the six markets in the long term and become stronger during bullish markets. (b) The short-term dynamics of each market is more likely to have a regime-switching structure. (c) The cyclical pattern shows differences between securitized property and housing markets, as well as between securitized property and general stock markets. Meanwhile, the cyclical pattern in developed markets is also different from that in developing markets. (d) The duration dependence shows a weak effect of the boom on predicting the occurrence of the upcoming bust. Instead, the magnitude of boom growth plays a significant role in predicting the duration of following bust. (e) The asymmetric analysis brings forward the "paralleling effect" which indicates that the asymmetry in returns is parallel with the movements of r. The methodology shall serve in providing detailed implications on the characters of cycle and duration forecast in securitized property markets for investors and governments.

A Dynamic Competition Simulation for Worldwide Big-size TV Market Using Lotka-Volterra Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wu-Tung Terry; Li, Yiming; Hung, Chih-Young

2009-08-01

Technological innovation is characterized by the substitution of new technologies for full-fledged ones in the development of new products, processes and techniques. Global TV market is seeing a price down-spiral for FPD(Flat Panel Display)-TVs, replacement of CRT by LCD, and consumer's defection to larger screen. The LCD-TV market started in Japan from 2003 and took off globally from 2005. LCD panel production is moving toward larger sizes. In the 35″-39″ size market, the price/performance ratio of LCD-TV is better than that of PDP. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the demand function of worldwide big-size (35″-39″) TVs including LCD and PDP with an explicit consideration of market competition. The demand function was estimated using Lotka-Volterra model, a famous competitive diffusion model. The results exhibit a kind of predator-prey relationship, in which the PDP market was hunted by LCD product. In addition, the coefficients of difference equations of Lotka-Volterra model in this analysis are also used to forecast the future market of the big-size LCD and PDP.

Partnering for Vaccine Emerging Markets--Berlin, June 10-11, 2013: balancing vaccine quality, capacity, and cost-of-goods in emerging markets.

PubMed

Onraedt, Annelies

2013-09-01

Phacilitates 1st Partnering event for Vaccine Emerging Markets brought together approximately 100 attendees from developed and developing world vaccine manufacturers, leading non-profit organizations and industry suppliers. The goal was to discuss the vaccine needs in the developing world and how these needs can be met by leveraging collaboration and partnership models, by improving access to existing, new and next generation vaccines, by using novel technologies to drive competitive advantage and economics of vaccine manufacturing and by investing in localized capacity, including capacity for pandemic vaccines. The present article summarizes insights out of 30 oral contributions on how quality and capacity requirements can be balanced with cost by using novel manufacturing technologies and operating models.

Measuring housing quality in the absence of a monetized real estate market.

PubMed

Rindfuss, Ronald R; Piotrowski, Martin; Thongthai, Varachai; Prasartkul, Pramote

2007-03-01

Measuring housing quality or value or both has been a weak component of demographic and development research in less developed countries that lack an active real estate (housing) market. We describe a new method based on a standardized subjective rating process. It is designed to be used in settings that do not have an active, monetized housing market. The method is applied in an ongoing longitudinal study in north-east Thailand and could be straightforwardly used in many other settings. We develop a conceptual model of the process whereby households come to reside in high-quality or low-quality housing units. We use this theoretical model in conjunction with longitudinal data to show that the new method of measuring housing quality behaves as theoretically expected, thus providing evidence of face validity.

Multilayer Stock Forecasting Model Using Fuzzy Time Series

PubMed Central

Javedani Sadaei, Hossein; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

2014-01-01

After reviewing the vast body of literature on using FTS in stock market forecasting, certain deficiencies are distinguished in the hybridization of findings. In addition, the lack of constructive systematic framework, which can be helpful to indicate direction of growth in entire FTS forecasting systems, is outstanding. In this study, we propose a multilayer model for stock market forecasting including five logical significant layers. Every single layer has its detailed concern to assist forecast development by reconciling certain problems exclusively. To verify the model, a set of huge data containing Taiwan Stock Index (TAIEX), National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), and S&P 500 have been chosen as experimental datasets. The results indicate that the proposed methodology has the potential to be accepted as a framework for model development in stock market forecasts using FTS. PMID:24605058

Global Aerospace Industries: Rapid Changes Ahead? (Abridged)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-30

Understanding the Situation: Contestable Markets • Central idea: the extent to which markets are “contestable” causes monopolists and oligopolists to behave...find useful explanatory models for Boeing?s success, discussed in Chapter II. In Chapter III, we consider the narrow-body airliner market , currently...families have provided resources for a number of wide-body developments some of which have become part of the defense marketplace. The narrow-body market

Development of 3D browsing and interactive web system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Xiaonan; Fu, Jian; Jin, Chaolin

2017-09-01

In the current market, users need to download specific software or plug-ins to browse the 3D model, and browsing the system may be unstable, and it cannot be 3D model interaction issues In order to solve this problem, this paper presents a solution to the interactive browsing of the model in the server-side parsing model, and when the system is applied, the user only needs to input the system URL and upload the 3D model file to operate the browsing The server real-time parsing 3D model, the interactive response speed, these completely follows the user to walk the minimalist idea, and solves the current market block 3D content development question.

Farms, Families, and Markets: New Evidence on Completeness of Markets in Agricultural Settings

PubMed Central

LaFave, Daniel; Thomas, Duncan

2016-01-01

The farm household model has played a central role in improving the understanding of small-scale agricultural households and non-farm enterprises. Under the assumptions that all current and future markets exist and that farmers treat all prices as given, the model simplifies households’ simultaneous production and consumption decisions into a recursive form in which production can be treated as independent of preferences of household members. These assumptions, which are the foundation of a large literature in labor and development, have been tested and not rejected in several important studies including Benjamin (1992). Using multiple waves of longitudinal survey data from Central Java, Indonesia, this paper tests a key prediction of the recursive model: demand for farm labor is unrelated to the demographic composition of the farm household. The prediction is unambiguously rejected. The rejection cannot be explained by contamination due to unobserved heterogeneity that is fixed at the farm level, local area shocks or farm-specific shocks that affect changes in household composition and farm labor demand. We conclude that the recursive form of the farm household model is not consistent with the data. Developing empirically tractable models of farm households when markets are incomplete remains an important challenge. PMID:27688430

Intelligence by design in an entropic power grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negrete-Pincetic, Matias Alejandro

In this work, the term Entropic Grid is coined to describe a power grid with increased levels of uncertainty and dynamics. These new features will require the reconsideration of well-established paradigms in the way of planning and operating the grid and its associated markets. New tools and models able to handle uncertainty and dynamics will form the required scaffolding to properly capture the behavior of the physical system, along with the value of new technologies and policies. The leverage of this knowledge will facilitate the design of new architectures to organize power and energy systems and their associated markets. This work presents several results, tools and models with the goal of contributing to that design objective. A central idea of this thesis is that the definition of products is critical in electricity markets. When markets are constructed with appropriate product definitions in mind, the interference between the physical and the market/financial systems seen in today's markets can be reduced. A key element of evaluating market designs is understanding the impact that salient features of an entropic grid---uncertainty, dynamics, constraints---can have on the electricity markets. Dynamic electricity market models tailored to capture such features are developed in this work. Using a multi-settlement dynamic electricity market, the impact of volatility is investigated. The results show the need to implement policies and technologies able to cope with the volatility of renewable sources. Similarly, using a dynamic electricity market model in which ramping costs are considered, the impacts of those costs on electricity markets are investigated. The key conclusion is that those additional ramping costs, in average terms, are not reflected in electricity prices. These results reveal several difficulties with today's real-time markets. Elements of an alternative architecture to organize these markets are also discussed.

Simulating partially illegal markets of private tanker water providers on the country level: A multi-agent, hydroeconomic case-study of Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klassert, C. J. A.; Yoon, J.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Sigel, K.; Talozi, S.; Lachaut, T.; Selby, P. D.; Knox, S.; Gorelick, S.; Tilmant, A.; Harou, J. J.; Mustafa, D.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Rajsekhar, D.; Avisse, N.; Zhang, H.

2016-12-01

In arid countries around the world, markets of private small-scale water providers, mostly delivering water via tanker trucks, have emerged to balance the shortcomings of public water supply systems. While these markets can provide substantial contributions to meeting customers' water demands, they often partially rely on illegal water abstractions, thus imposing an unregulated and unmonitored strain on ground and surface water resources. Despite their important impacts on water users' welfare and resource sustainability, these markets are still poorly understood. We use a multi-agent, hydroeconomic simulation model, developed as part of the Jordan Water Project, to investigate the role of these markets in a country-wide case-study of Jordan. Jordan's water sector is characterized by a severe and growing scarcity of water resources, high intermittency in the public water network, and a strongly increasing demand due to an unprecedented refugee crisis. The tanker water market serves an important role in providing water from rural wells to households and commercial enterprises, especially during supply interruptions. In order to overcome the lack of direct data about this partially illegal market, we simulate demand and supply for tanker water. The demand for tanker water is conceptualized as a residual demand, remaining after a water user has depleted all available cheap and qualitatively reliable piped water. It is derived from residential and commercial demand functions on the basis of survey data. Tanker water supply is determined by farm simulation models calculating the groundwater pumping cost and the agricultural opportunity cost of tanker water. A market algorithm is then used to match rural supplies with users' demands, accounting for survey data on tanker operators' transport costs and profit expectations. The model is used to gain insights into the size of the tanker markets in all 89 subdistricts of Jordan and their responsiveness to various policy interventions. A dynamic coupling of the model with a country-wide groundwater model allows for projections of the spatial development of the tanker market over time. Accounting for this important supply source will be essential for the formulation of any policy aiming to reconcile the interests of water users with resource sustainability.

An Innovative Marketing Model: Promoting Technical Programs by Conducting One-Day Conferences.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petrosian, Anahid

This document examines an innovative marketing strategy developed by South Texas Community College (STCC) to promote its technical programs. In 2000, STCC organized the "Business Conference Institute" to develop 1-day conferences with the Division of Business, Math & Sciences (DBMS). The creation of this Institute linked the College with the local…

Application for Single Price Auction Model (SPA) in AC Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wachi, Tsunehisa; Fukutome, Suguru; Chen, Luonan; Makino, Yoshinori; Koshimizu, Gentarou

This paper aims to develop a single price auction model with AC transmission network, based on the principle of maximizing social surplus of electricity market. Specifically, we first formulate the auction market as a nonlinear optimization problem, which has almost the same form as the conventional optimal power flow problem, and then propose an algorithm to derive both market clearing price and trade volume of each player even for the case of market-splitting. As indicated in the paper, the proposed approach can be used not only for the price evaluation of auction or bidding market but also for analysis of bidding strategy, congestion effect and other constraints or factors. Several numerical examples are used to demonstrate effectiveness of our method.

Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen

2015-04-01

In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also defined in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems.

Customer social network affects marketing strategy: A simulation analysis based on competitive diffusion model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Rui; Wu, Jiawen; Du, Helen S.

2017-03-01

To explain the competition phenomenon and results between QQ and MSN (China) in the Chinese instant messaging software market, this paper developed a new population competition model based on customer social network. The simulation results show that the firm whose product with greater network externality effect will gain more market share than its rival when the same marketing strategy is used. The firm with the advantage of time, derived from the initial scale effect will become more competitive than its rival when facing a group of common penguin customers within a social network, verifying the winner-take-all phenomenon in this case.

Energy Modeling Forum Study #26 CHANGING THE GAME?: EMISSIONS AND MARKET IMPLICATIONS OF NEW NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES: EPA US9r MARKAL Model Results

EPA Science Inventory

With the application of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, new natural gas shale formations are becoming widely available in North America at competitive prices. This development has created an extensive search for new markets where natural gas may compete effectively ...

Energy Modeling Forum Study #26: Changing the game? Emissions and market implications of ?new natural gas supplies: EPA US9r MARKAL model results

EPA Science Inventory

With the application of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, new natural gas shale formations are becoming widely available in North America atcompetitive prices. This development has created an extensive search for new markets where natural gas may compete effectively w...

Smartphone Apps on the Mobile Web: An Exploratory Case Study of Business Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ford, Caroline Morgan

2012-01-01

The purpose of this research is to explore the business strategies of a firm seeking to develop and profitably market a mobile smartphone application to understand how small, digital entrepreneurships may build sustainable business models given substantial market barriers. Through a detailed examination of one firm's process to try to…

Collaborative evaluation and market research converge: an innovative model agricultural development program evaluation in Southern Sudan.

PubMed

O'Sullivan, John M; O'Sullivan, Rita

2012-11-01

In June and July 2006 a team of outside experts arrived in Yei, Southern Sudan through an AID project to provide support to a local agricultural development project. The team brought evaluation, agricultural marketing and financial management expertise to the in-country partners looking at steps to rebuild the economy of the war ravaged region. A partnership of local officials, agricultural development staff, and students worked with the outside team to craft a survey of agricultural traders working between northern Uganda and Southern Sudan the steps approach of a collaborative model. The goal was to create a market directory of use to producers, government officials and others interested in stimulating agricultural trade. The directory of agricultural producers and distributors served as an agricultural development and promotion tool as did the collaborative process itself. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of exchange rates on southern pine exports

Treesearch

H.W. Wisdom; James E. Granskog

2003-01-01

Changes in exchange rates affect southern pine exports by changing the cost of southern wood in foreign markets. A strong dollar discourages exports; a weak dollar encourages exports. A simple economic export market model is developed to determine whether changes in the exchange rates in foreign markets of southern pine products have, in fact, let to significant...

Markets and Models for Large-Scale Courseware Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bunderson, C. Victor

Computer-assisted instruction (CAI) is not making an important, visible impact on the educational system of this country. Though its instructional value has been proven time after time, the high cost of the hardware and the lack of quality courseware is preventing CAI from becoming a market success. In order for CAI to reach its market potential…

Business Marketing Information Systems Skills. Voc-Ed Project. Marketing Management Career Area. Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Milwaukee Area Technical Coll., WI.

A study was conducted to develop a curriculum to meet the information processing/management training needs of persons entering or continuing careers in the information marketing area. The process used for the study was based on Stufflebeam's Context, Input, Process, Product (CIPP) model of evaluation. The information gathering process included a…

The mechanism for migration in Poland.

PubMed

Rykiel, Z

1988-01-01

The author reviews neoclassical theories and models of migration. The mobility theory, which concerns the impact of local labor markets on migration, is discussed in the Polish context. A general model of the regional labor market and a multicausal model are developed to explain the patterns of internal migration. The period of a managed economy (1949-1980) is contrasted with the period since the implementation of a new economic system in 1983.

An analysis of long and medium-haul air passenger demand, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eriksen, S. E.

1978-01-01

A basic model was developed which is a two equation pair econometric system in which air passenger demand and airline level-of-service are the endogenous variables. The model aims to identify the relationship between each of these two variables and its determining factors, and to identify the interaction of demand and level-of-service with each other. The selected variable for the measure of air passenger traffic activity in a given pair market is defined as the number of passengers in a given time that originate in one region and fly to the other region for purposes other than to make a connection to a third region. For medium and long haul markets, the model seems to perform better for larger markets. This is due to a specification problem regarding the route structure variable. In larger markets, a greater percentage of nonlocal passengers are accounted for by this variable. Comparing the estimated fare elasticities of long and medium haul markets, it appears that air transportation demand is more price elastic in longer haul markets. Long haul markets demand will saturate with a fewer number of departures than will demand in medium haul markets.

Reserve selection with land market feedbacks.

PubMed

Butsic, Van; Lewis, David J; Radeloff, Volker C

2013-01-15

How to best site reserves is a leading question for conservation biologists. Recently, reserve selection has emphasized efficient conservation: maximizing conservation goals given the reality of limited conservation budgets, and this work indicates that land market can potentially undermine the conservation benefits of reserves by increasing property values and development probabilities near reserves. Here we propose a reserve selection methodology which optimizes conservation given both a budget constraint and land market feedbacks by using a combination of econometric models along with stochastic dynamic programming. We show that amenity based feedbacks can be accounted for in optimal reserve selection by choosing property price and land development models which exogenously estimate the effects of reserve establishment. In our empirical example, we use previously estimated models of land development and property prices to select parcels to maximize coarse woody debris along 16 lakes in Vilas County, WI, USA. Using each lake as an independent experiment, we find that including land market feedbacks in the reserve selection algorithm has only small effects on conservation efficacy. Likewise, we find that in our setting heuristic (minloss and maxgain) algorithms perform nearly as well as the optimal selection strategy. We emphasize that land market feedbacks can be included in optimal reserve selection; the extent to which this improves reserve placement will likely vary across landscapes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crop Monitoring as a Tool for Modelling the Genesis of Millet Prices in Senegal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacques, D.; Marinho, E.; Defourny, P.; Waldner, F.; d'Andrimont, R.

2015-12-01

Food security in Sahelian countries strongly relies on the ability of markets to transfer staplesfrom surplus to deficit areas. Market failures, leading to the inefficient geographical allocation of food,are expected to emerge from high transportation costs and information asymmetries that are commonin moderately developed countries. As a result, important price differentials are observed betweenproducing and consuming areas which damages both poor producers and food insecure consumers. Itis then vital for policy makers to understand how the prices of agricultural commodities are formed byaccounting for the existing market imperfections in addition to local demand and supply considerations. To address this issue, we have gathered an unique and diversified set of data for Senegal andintegrated it in a spatially explicit model that simulates the functioning of agricultural markets, that isfully consistent with the economic theory. Our departure point is a local demand and supply modelaround each market having its catchment areas determined by the road network. We estimate the localsupply of agricultural commodities from satellite imagery while the demand is assumed to be a functionof the population living in the area. From this point on, profitable transactions between areas with lowprices to areas with high prices are simulated for different levels of per kilometer transportation costand information flows (derived from call details records i.e. mobile phone data). The simulated prices are then comparedwith the actual millet prices. Despite the parsimony of the model that estimates only two parameters, i.e. the per kilometertransportation cost and the information asymmetry resulting from low levels of mobile phone activitybetween markets, it impressively explains more than 80% of the price differentials observed in the 40markets included in the analysis. In one hand these results can be used in the assessment of the socialwelfare impacts of the further development of both road and mobile phone networks in the country. Onthe other hand, the model could be further developed as a precious tool for the prediction of futurestaple prices in the country.

The contradictory logic of global ecosystem services markets.

PubMed

McAfee, Kathleen

2012-01-01

Commodification and transnational trading of ecosystem services is the most ambitious iteration yet of the strategy of ‘selling nature to save it’. The World Bank and UN agencies contend that global carbon markets can slow climate change while generating resources for development. Consonant with ‘inclusionary’ versions of neoliberal development policy, advocates assert that international payment for ecosystem services (PES) projects, financed by carbon-offset sales and biodiversity banking, can benefit the poor. However, the World Bank also warns that a focus on poverty reduction can undermine efficiency in conservation spending. The experience of ten years of PES illustrates how, in practice, market-efficiency criteria clash directly with poverty-reduction priorities. Nevertheless, the premises of market-based PES are being extrapolated as a model for global REDD programmes financed by carbon-offset trading. This article argues that the contradiction between development and conservation observed in PES is inevitable in projects framed by the asocial logic of neoclassical economics. Application in international conservation policy of the market model, in which profit incentives depend upon differential opportunity costs, will entail a net upward redistribution of wealth from poorer to wealthier classes and from rural regions to distant centres of capital accumulation, mainly in the global North.

An MDI Model and an Algorithm for Composite Hypotheses Testing and Estimation in Marketing

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-01

Other, more general, developments in statistics and mathematical programming (duality) theories and methods are also briefly discussed for their possible bearing on further uses in marketing research and management. (Author)

Unraveling chaotic attractors by complex networks and measurements of stock market complexity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cao, Hongduo; Li, Ying, E-mail: mnsliy@mail.sysu.edu.cn

2014-03-15

We present a novel method for measuring the complexity of a time series by unraveling a chaotic attractor modeled on complex networks. The complexity index R, which can potentially be exploited for prediction, has a similar meaning to the Kolmogorov complexity (calculated from the Lempel–Ziv complexity), and is an appropriate measure of a series' complexity. The proposed method is used to research the complexity of the world's major capital markets. None of these markets are completely random, and they have different degrees of complexity, both over the entire length of their time series and at a level of detail. However,more » developing markets differ significantly from mature markets. Specifically, the complexity of mature stock markets is stronger and more stable over time, whereas developing markets exhibit relatively low and unstable complexity over certain time periods, implying a stronger long-term price memory process.« less

Coordination and decision making of regulation, operation, and market activities in power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakashima, Tomoaki

Electric power has been traditionally supplied to customers at regulated rates by vertically integrated utilities (VIUs), which own generation, transmission, and distribution systems. However, the regulatory authorities of VIUs are promoting competition in their businesses to lower the price of electric energy. Consequently, in new deregulated circumstances, many suppliers and marketers compete in the generation market, and conflict of interest may often occur over transmission. Therefore, a neutral entity, called an independent system operator (ISO), which operates the power system independently, has been established to give market participants nondiscriminatory access to transmission sectors with a natural monopoly, and to facilitate competition in generation sectors. Several types of ISOs are established at present, with their respective regions and authorities. The ISO receives many requests from market participants to transfer power, and must evaluate the feasibility of their requests under the system's condition. In the near future, regulatory authorities may impose various objectives on the ISOs. Then, based on the regulators' policies, the ISO must determine the optimal schedules from feasible solutions, or change the market participants' requests. In a newly developed power market, market participants will conduct their transactions in order to maximize their profit. The most crucial information in conducting power transactions is price and demand. A direct transaction between suppliers and consumers may become attractive because of its stability of price, while in a power exchange market, gaming and speculation of participants may push up electricity prices considerably. To assist the consumers in making effective decisions, suitable methods for forecasting volatile market price are necessary. This research has been approached from three viewpoints: Firstly, from the system operator's point of view, desirable system operation and power market structure are explored. Two typical ISO models, centralized and decentralized, have been identified and compared. These ISO models have been simulated to observe the advantages and disadvantages of the different systems. If no powerful players exist, the centralized system would achieve the maximum market efficiency. However, in decentralized systems, freedom of trade protects market participants from strategic bidding caused by powerful players. Reduced market efficiency is the price markets have to pay to prevent strategic bidding. Secondly, from the regulator's point of view, the effects of different policies imposed by regulators on power transactions are examined. The optimal schedule could be affected greatly by the ideal goals and their allowable values. Therefore, when the ISO defines its objectives and their allowable ranges, an agreeable conclusion among market participants is required. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization methods can be suitably applied to the scheduling of the ISO, reflecting its objectives and their allowable ranges properly. Thirdly, from market participants' point of view, models to represent and forecast the price and demand of power are developed. Electricity consumption and price are forecasted based on possibility theory and fuzzy autoregression. The fuzzy model can represent highly volatile demand-price relations as a range, and gives the possibility distribution of prices. Based on the proposed model, a procedure to help consumers decide whether to accept a bilateral transaction contract or market-based purchases of electricity has been developed. The same procedure can also be used by an electricity supplier or broker to determine an offering price.

New approaches in agent-based modeling of complex financial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ting-Ting; Zheng, Bo; Li, Yan; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

2017-12-01

Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation technique to understand the collective behavior and microscopic interaction in complex financial systems. Recently, the concept for determining the key parameters of agent-based models from empirical data instead of setting them artificially was suggested. We first review several agent-based models and the new approaches to determine the key model parameters from historical market data. Based on the agents' behaviors with heterogeneous personal preferences and interactions, these models are successful in explaining the microscopic origination of the temporal and spatial correlations of financial markets. We then present a novel paradigm combining big-data analysis with agent-based modeling. Specifically, from internet query and stock market data, we extract the information driving forces and develop an agent-based model to simulate the dynamic behaviors of complex financial systems.

Dynamics of Aviation Biofuel Investment, Incentives, and Market Growth: An Exploration Using the Biomass Scenario Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura; Newes, Emily

The Federal Aviation Administration promotes the development of an aviation biofuel market, and has pursued a goal of 1 billion gallons of production annually by 2018. Although this goal is unlikely to be met, this analysis applies the Biomass Scenario Model to explore conditions affecting market growth, and identifies policy incentive and oil price conditions under which this level of production might occur, and by what year. Numerous combinations of conditions that are more favorable than current conditions can reach the goal before 2030.

Establishing politically feasible water markets: a multi-criteria approach.

PubMed

Ballestero, Enrique; Alarcón, Silverio; García-Bernabeu, Ana

2002-08-01

A multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) model to simulate the establishment of water markets is developed. The environment is an irrigated area governed by a non-profit agency, which is responsible for water production, allocation, and pricing. There is a traditional situation of historical rights, average-cost pricing for water allocation, large quantities of water used, and inefficiency. A market-oriented policy could be implemented by accounting for ecological and political objectives such as saving groundwater and safeguarding historical rights while promoting economic efficiency. In this paper, a problem is solved by compromise programming, a multi-criteria technique based on the principles of Simonian logic. The model is theoretically developed and applied to the Lorca region in Spain near the Mediterranean Sea.

A Markovian model market—Akerlof's lemons and the asymmetry of information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilles, Paulo F. C.; Ferreira, Fernando F.; Francisco, Gerson; Pereira, Carlos de B.; Sarti, Flavia M.

2011-07-01

In this work we study an agent based model to investigate the role of asymmetric information degrees for market evolution. This model is quite simple and may be treated analytically since the consumers evaluate the quality of a certain good taking into account only the quality of the last good purchased plus her perceptive capacity β. As a consequence, the system evolves according to a stationary Markov chain. The value of a good offered by the firms increases along with quality according to an exponent α, which is a measure of the technology. It incorporates all the technological capacity of the production systems such as education, scientific development and techniques that change the productivity rates. The technological level plays an important role to explain how the asymmetry of information may affect the market evolution in this model. We observe that, for high technological levels, the market can detect adverse selection. The model allows us to compute the maximum asymmetric information degree before the market collapses. Below this critical point the market evolves during a limited period of time and then dies out completely. When β is closer to 1 (symmetric information), the market becomes more profitable for high quality goods, although high and low quality markets coexist. The maximum asymmetric information level is a consequence of an ergodicity breakdown in the process of quality evaluation.

An econometric model of the U.S. pallet market

Treesearch

Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

1979-01-01

A need for quantitative information on demand and price has been expressed by the pallet industry. In response to this, an econometric model of the aggregate U.S. pallet market was developed. Demand was found to be affected by real pallet price, industrial and food production levels, and slipsheet prices. Supply was affected by real price, housing starts lagged 1 year...

Using a Market Ratio Factor in Faculty Salary Equity Studies. Professional File Number 103, Spring 2007

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luna, Andrew L.

2007-01-01

This study used two multiple regression analyses to develop an explanatory model to determine which model might best explain faculty salaries. The central purpose of the study was to determine if using a single market ratio variable was a stronger predictor for faculty salaries than the use of dummy variables representing various disciplines.…

Impact of the implementation of rest days in live bird markets on the dynamics of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza.

PubMed

Fournié, G; Guitian, F J; Mangtani, P; Ghani, A C

2011-08-07

Live bird markets (LBMs) act as a network 'hub' and potential reservoir of infection for domestic poultry. They may therefore be responsible for sustaining H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus circulation within the poultry sector, and thus a suitable target for implementing control strategies. We developed a stochastic transmission model to understand how market functioning impacts on the transmission dynamics. We then investigated the potential for rest days-periods during which markets are emptied and disinfected-to modulate the dynamics of H5N1 HPAI within the poultry sector using a stochastic meta-population model. Our results suggest that under plausible parameter scenarios, HPAI H5N1 could be sustained silently within LBMs with the time spent by poultry in markets and the frequency of introduction of new susceptible birds' dominant factors determining sustained silent spread. Compared with interventions applied in farms (i.e. stamping out, vaccination), our model shows that frequent rest days are an effective means to reduce HPAI transmission. Furthermore, our model predicts that full market closure would be only slightly more effective than rest days to reduce transmission. Strategies applied within markets could thus help to control transmission of the disease.

Impact of the implementation of rest days in live bird markets on the dynamics of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza

PubMed Central

Fournié, G.; Guitian, F. J.; Mangtani, P.; Ghani, A. C.

2011-01-01

Live bird markets (LBMs) act as a network ‘hub’ and potential reservoir of infection for domestic poultry. They may therefore be responsible for sustaining H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus circulation within the poultry sector, and thus a suitable target for implementing control strategies. We developed a stochastic transmission model to understand how market functioning impacts on the transmission dynamics. We then investigated the potential for rest days—periods during which markets are emptied and disinfected—to modulate the dynamics of H5N1 HPAI within the poultry sector using a stochastic meta-population model. Our results suggest that under plausible parameter scenarios, HPAI H5N1 could be sustained silently within LBMs with the time spent by poultry in markets and the frequency of introduction of new susceptible birds' dominant factors determining sustained silent spread. Compared with interventions applied in farms (i.e. stamping out, vaccination), our model shows that frequent rest days are an effective means to reduce HPAI transmission. Furthermore, our model predicts that full market closure would be only slightly more effective than rest days to reduce transmission. Strategies applied within markets could thus help to control transmission of the disease. PMID:21131332

A game-based decision support methodology for competitive systems design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briceno, Simon Ignacio

This dissertation describes the development of a game-based methodology that facilitates the exploration and selection of research and development (R&D) projects under uncertain competitive scenarios. The proposed method provides an approach that analyzes competitor positioning and formulates response strategies to forecast the impact of technical design choices on a project's market performance. A critical decision in the conceptual design phase of propulsion systems is the selection of the best architecture, centerline, core size, and technology portfolio. This selection can be challenging when considering evolving requirements from both the airframe manufacturing company and the airlines in the market. Furthermore, the exceedingly high cost of core architecture development and its associated risk makes this strategic architecture decision the most important one for an engine company. Traditional conceptual design processes emphasize performance and affordability as their main objectives. These areas alone however, do not provide decision-makers with enough information as to how successful their engine will be in a competitive market. A key objective of this research is to examine how firm characteristics such as their relative differences in completing R&D projects, differences in the degree of substitutability between different project types, and first/second-mover advantages affect their product development strategies. Several quantitative methods are investigated that analyze business and engineering strategies concurrently. In particular, formulations based on the well-established mathematical field of game theory are introduced to obtain insights into the project selection problem. The use of game theory is explored in this research as a method to assist the selection process of R&D projects in the presence of imperfect market information. The proposed methodology focuses on two influential factors: the schedule uncertainty of project completion times and the uncertainty associated with competitive reactions. A normal-form matrix is created to enumerate players, their moves and payoffs, and to formulate a process by which an optimal decision can be achieved. The non-cooperative model is tested using the concept of a Nash equilibrium to identify potential strategies that are robust to uncertain market fluctuations (e.g: uncertainty in airline demand, airframe requirements and competitor positioning). A first/second-mover advantage parameter is used as a scenario dial to adjust market rewards and firms' payoffs. The methodology is applied to a commercial aircraft engine selection study where engine firms must select an optimal engine project for development. An engine modeling and simulation framework is developed to generate a broad engine project portfolio. The creation of a customer value model enables designers to incorporate airline operation characteristics into the engine modeling and simulation process to improve the accuracy of engine/customer matching. Summary. Several key findings are made that provide recommendations on project selection strategies for firms uncertain as to when they will enter the market. The proposed study demonstrates that within a technical design environment, a rational and analytical means of modeling project development strategies is beneficial in high market risk situations.

Implications of the Marketization of Higher Education for Social Emotional Development in Schools: A Personal View

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Paul

2014-01-01

This essay discusses the institutional dysfunction that has resulted from the misguided belief that a market forces approach leads to the improvement of teaching quality and learning outcomes. Because the market forces approach is based on a simplistic input-output model that pays scant attention to teaching and learning processes, it is an…

Optimal advanced credit releases in ecosystem service markets.

PubMed

BenDor, Todd K; Guo, Tianshu; Yates, Andrew J

2014-03-01

Ecosystem service markets are popular policy tools for ecosystem protection. Advanced credit releases are an important factor affecting the supply side of ecosystem markets. Under an advanced credit release policy, regulators give ecosystem suppliers a fraction of the total ecosystem credits generated by a restoration project before it is verified that the project actually achieves the required ecological thresholds. In spite of their prominent role in ecosystem markets, there is virtually no regulatory or research literature on the proper design of advanced credit release policies. Using U.S. aquatic ecosystem markets as an example, we develop a principal-agent model of the behavior of regulators and wetland/stream mitigation bankers to determine and explore the optimal degree of advance credit release. The model highlights the tension between regulators' desire to induce market participation, while at the same time ensuring that bankers successfully complete ecological restoration. Our findings suggest several simple guidelines for strengthening advanced credit release policy.

Center for Disease Control's Diethylstilbestrol Update: a case for effective operationalization of messaging in social marketing practice.

PubMed

Mattson, Marifran; Basu, Ambar

2010-07-01

The Center for Disease Control's (CDC) Diethylstilbestrol (DES) Update, a campaign to educate people who may have been exposed to the drug DES, is framed on the premises of the social marketing model, namely formative research, audience segmentation, product, price, placement, promotion, and campaign evaluation. More than that, the campaign takes a critical step in extending the social marketing paradigm by highlighting the need to situate the messaging process at the heart of any health communication campaign. This article uses CDC's DES Update as a case study to illustrate an application of a message development tool within social marketing. This tool promotes the operationalization of messaging within health campaigns. Ultimately, the goal of this project is to extend the social marketing model and provide useful theoretical guidance to health campaign practitioners on how to accomplish stellar communication within a social marketing campaign.

Game-theoretic equilibrium analysis applications to deregulated electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joung, Manho

This dissertation examines game-theoretic equilibrium analysis applications to deregulated electricity markets. In particular, three specific applications are discussed: analyzing the competitive effects of ownership of financial transmission rights, developing a dynamic game model considering the ramp rate constraints of generators, and analyzing strategic behavior in electricity capacity markets. In the financial transmission right application, an investigation is made of how generators' ownership of financial transmission rights may influence the effects of the transmission lines on competition. In the second application, the ramp rate constraints of generators are explicitly modeled using a dynamic game framework, and the equilibrium is characterized as the Markov perfect equilibrium. Finally, the strategic behavior of market participants in electricity capacity markets is analyzed and it is shown that the market participants may exaggerate their available capacity in a Nash equilibrium. It is also shown that the more conservative the independent system operator's capacity procurement, the higher the risk of exaggerated capacity offers.

Optimal Advanced Credit Releases in Ecosystem Service Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

BenDor, Todd K.; Guo, Tianshu; Yates, Andrew J.

2014-03-01

Ecosystem service markets are popular policy tools for ecosystem protection. Advanced credit releases are an important factor affecting the supply side of ecosystem markets. Under an advanced credit release policy, regulators give ecosystem suppliers a fraction of the total ecosystem credits generated by a restoration project before it is verified that the project actually achieves the required ecological thresholds. In spite of their prominent role in ecosystem markets, there is virtually no regulatory or research literature on the proper design of advanced credit release policies. Using U.S. aquatic ecosystem markets as an example, we develop a principal-agent model of the behavior of regulators and wetland/stream mitigation bankers to determine and explore the optimal degree of advance credit release. The model highlights the tension between regulators' desire to induce market participation, while at the same time ensuring that bankers successfully complete ecological restoration. Our findings suggest several simple guidelines for strengthening advanced credit release policy.

The Impacts of Information-Sharing Mechanisms on Spatial Market Formation Based on Agent-Based Modeling

PubMed Central

Li, Qianqian; Yang, Tao; Zhao, Erbo; Xia, Xing’ang; Han, Zhangang

2013-01-01

There has been an increasing interest in the geographic aspects of economic development, exemplified by P. Krugman’s logical analysis. We show in this paper that the geographic aspects of economic development can be modeled using multi-agent systems that incorporate multiple underlying factors. The extent of information sharing is assumed to be a driving force that leads to economic geographic heterogeneity across locations without geographic advantages or disadvantages. We propose an agent-based market model that considers a spectrum of different information-sharing mechanisms: no information sharing, information sharing among friends and pheromone-like information sharing. Finally, we build a unified model that accommodates all three of these information-sharing mechanisms based on the number of friends who can share information. We find that the no information-sharing model does not yield large economic zones, and more information sharing can give rise to a power-law distribution of market size that corresponds to the stylized fact of city size and firm size distributions. The simulations show that this model is robust. This paper provides an alternative approach to studying economic geographic development, and this model could be used as a test bed to validate the detailed assumptions that regulate real economic agglomeration. PMID:23484007

Sustainable and ICT-Enabled Development in Developing Areas: An E-Heritage E-Commerce Service for Handicraft Marketing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhammad, Tufail; Kim, Kwan Myung

2018-04-01

Human-induced threats serve as potential hazards to cultural heritage assets, especially in developing areas where the local community, in general, is a deprived class. Sustainable tourism development is acknowledged as an economic activity to ensure careful management of assets along with local community empowerment and participation. As such, ICT-enabled development is applied in rural development projects to promote sustainable rural livelihood, but success is still limited due to a lack of community involvement and sharing in the economic gains of tourism. With this perspective in mind, the present study focuses on emerging marketing models (e-commerce) that can provide new business ventures for local communities by identifying critical online marketing elements driven by local residents.

The cocaine and heroin markets in the era of globalisation and drug reduction policies.

PubMed

Costa Storti, Cláudia; De Grauwe, Paul

2009-11-01

Despite the large volume of public effort devoted to restrain drug supply and the growing attention given to drug demand reduction policies, the use of cocaine and heroin remains steady. Furthermore, retail drug prices have fallen significantly in Europe and the US. This puzzling evidence leads us to develop a model aiming at systematically analysing illicit drug markets. We model the markets of cocaine and heroin from production to the final retail markets. One novelty of the analysis consists in characterising the retail market as a monopolistic competitive one. Then, upper level dealers have some market power in the retail market. This allows them to charge a markup and to earn extra profits. These extra profits attract newcomers so that profits tend to fall over time. Theoretical model was used to analyse the effect of supply containment policies on the retail market, the producer market and the export-import business. This introduces the discussion of the impact of demand reduction policies on the high level traffickers' profit. Finally, globalisation enters in the model. Law enforcement measures increase the risk premia received by the lower and higher level traffickers. Consequently, trafficking intermediation margins tend to increase. However, globalisation has the opposite effect. It lowers intermediation margins and, then, pushes retail prices down, thereby stimulating consumption. In doing so, globalisation offsets the effects of supply containment policies. Finally, we discuss how the effectiveness of supply containment policies can be enhanced by combining them with demand reduction policies.

Electronic Commerce in Tourism in China: B2B or B2C?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongxiu; Suomi, Reima

E-commerce has significantly changed the distribution channels of travel products in the world including China. Online channels are growing important in travel service distribution. In China tourism industry has been developed rapidly with the economic development, more and more international travel service providers are trying to expand their Chinese market through the Internet. This paper sheds lights on the e-commerce development models in China for international travel service providers. It explores the current e-tourism in China from the three different participants in the value chain in tourism industry - consumer, travel agent and travel service provider. The paper also identifies the barriers in B2C arena in international outbound travel market, and discusses the possible approaches for international travel service providers to develop their e-commerce in the huge Chinese market. The results in this study reveal that international travel service providers should focus on B2B model to expand their electronic market in China. B2C development in tourism largely depends on the change of Chinese customers' behavior and the change of international tourism regulations. The findings of the study are expected to assist international travel service providers to understand current e-tourism in China and to support their planning for future e-commerce development in China.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rudkevich, Aleksandr; Goldis, Evgeniy

This research conducted by the Newton Energy Group, LLC (NEG) is dedicated to the development of pCloud: a Cloud-based Power Market Simulation Environment. pCloud is offering power industry stakeholders the capability to model electricity markets and is organized around the Software as a Service (SaaS) concept -- a software application delivery model in which software is centrally hosted and provided to many users via the internet. During the Phase I of this project NEG developed a prototype design for pCloud as a SaaS-based commercial service offering, system architecture supporting that design, ensured feasibility of key architecture's elements, formed technological partnershipsmore » and negotiated commercial agreements with partners, conducted market research and other related activities and secured funding for continue development of pCloud between the end of Phase I and beginning of Phase II, if awarded. Based on the results of Phase I activities, NEG has established that the development of a cloud-based power market simulation environment within the Windows Azure platform is technologically feasible, can be accomplished within the budget and timeframe available through the Phase II SBIR award with additional external funding. NEG believes that pCloud has the potential to become a game-changing technology for the modeling and analysis of electricity markets. This potential is due to the following critical advantages of pCloud over its competition: - Standardized access to advanced and proven power market simulators offered by third parties. - Automated parallelization of simulations and dynamic provisioning of computing resources on the cloud. This combination of automation and scalability dramatically reduces turn-around time while offering the capability to increase the number of analyzed scenarios by a factor of 10, 100 or even 1000. - Access to ready-to-use data and to cloud-based resources leading to a reduction in software, hardware, and IT costs. - Competitive pricing structure, which will make high-volume usage of simulation services affordable. - Availability and affordability of high quality power simulators, which presently only large corporate clients can afford, will level the playing field in developing regional energy policies, determining prudent cost recovery mechanisms and assuring just and reasonable rates to consumers. - Users that presently do not have the resources to internally maintain modeling capabilities will now be able to run simulations. This will invite more players into the industry, ultimately leading to more transparent and liquid power markets.« less

FACTS Devices Cost Recovery During Congestion Management in Deregulated Electricity Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Ashwani Kumar; Mittapalli, Ram Kumar; Pal, Yash

2016-09-01

In future electricity markets, flexible alternating current transmission system (FACTS) devices will play key role for providing ancillary services. Since huge cost is involved for the FACTS devices placement in the power system, the cost invested has to be recovered in their life time for the replacement of these devices. The FACTS devices in future electricity markets can act as an ancillary services provider and have to be remunerated. The main contributions of the paper are: (1) investment recovery of FACTS devices during congestion management such as static VAR compensator and unified power flow controller along with thyristor controlled series compensator using non-linear bid curves, (2) the impact of ZIP load model on the FACTS cost recovery of the devices, (3) the comparison of results obtained without ZIP load model for both pool and hybrid market model, (4) secure bilateral transactions incorporation in hybrid market model. An optimal power flow based approach has been developed for maximizing social welfare including FACTS devices cost. The optimal placement of the FACTS devices have been obtained based on maximum social welfare. The results have been obtained for both pool and hybrid electricity market for IEEE 24-bus RTS.

Economics of Direct Hydrogen Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahadevan, Kathyayani

Battelle's Economic Analysis of PEM Fuel Cell Systems project was initiated in 2003 to evaluate the technology and markets that are near-term and potentially could support the transition to fuel cells in automotive markets. The objective of Battelle?s project was to assist the DOE in developing fuel cell systems for pre-automotive applications by analyzing the technical, economic, and market drivers of direct hydrogen PEM fuel cell adoption. The project was executed over a 6-year period (2003 to 2010) and a variety of analyses were completed in that period. The analyses presented in the final report include: Commercialization scenarios for stationarymore » generation through 2015 (2004); Stakeholder feedback on technology status and performance status of fuel cell systems (2004); Development of manufacturing costs of stationary PEM fuel cell systems for backup power markets (2004); Identification of near-term and mid-term markets for PEM fuel cells (2006); Development of the value proposition and market opportunity of PEM fuel cells in near-term markets by assessing the lifecycle cost of PEM fuel cells as compared to conventional alternatives used in the marketplace and modeling market penetration (2006); Development of the value proposition of PEM fuel cells in government markets (2007); Development of the value proposition and opportunity for large fuel cell system application at data centers and wastewater treatment plants (2008); Update of the manufacturing costs of PEM fuel cells for backup power applications (2009).« less

Hierarchical dispatch using two-stage optimisation for electricity markets in smart grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jie; Zhang, Guoshan; Ma, Kai

2016-11-01

This paper proposes a hierarchical dispatch method for the electricity markets consisting of wholesale markets and retail markets. In the wholesale markets, the generators and the retailers decide the generation and the purchase according to the market-clearing price. In the retail markets, the retailers set the retail price to adjust the electricity consumption of the consumers. Due to the two-way communications in smart grid, the retailers can decide the electricity purchase from the wholesale markets based on the information on electricity usage of consumers in the retail markets. We establish the hierarchical dispatch model for the wholesale markets and the retail markets and develop distributed algorithms to search for the optimal generation, purchase, and consumption. Numerical results show the balance between the supply and demand, the profits of the retailers, and the convergence of the distributed algorithms.

Evolutionary game analysis and regulatory strategies for online group-buying based on system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhong-Zhong; He, Na; Qin, Xuwei; Ip, W. H.; Wu, C. H.; Yung, K. L.

2018-07-01

The emergence of online group-buying provides a new consumption pattern for consumers in e-commerce era. However, many consumers realize that their own interests sometimes can't be guaranteed in the group-buying market due to the lack of being regulated. This paper aims to develop effective regulation strategies for online group-buying market. To the best of our knowledge, most existing studies assume that three parties in online group-buying market, i.e. the retailer, the group-buying platform and the consumer, are perfectly rational. To better understand the decision process, in this paper, we incorporate the concept of bounded rationality into consideration. Firstly, a three-parties evolutionary game model is established to study each player's game strategy based on bounded rationality. Secondly, the game model is simulated as a whole by adopting system dynamics to analyze its stability. Finally, theoretical analysis and extensive computational experiments are conducted to obtain the managerial insights and regulation strategies for online group-buying market. Our results clearly demonstrate that a suitable bonus-penalty measure can promote the healthy development of online group-buying market.

The Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo): Documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCabe, Kevin; Mooney, Meghan E; Sigrin, Benjamin O

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo) as a tool to explore the potential role of geothermal distributed energy resources (DERs) in meeting thermal energy demands in the United States. The dGeo model simulates the potential for deployment of geothermal DERs in the residential and commercial sectors of the continental United States for two specific technologies: ground-source heat pumps (GHP) and geothermal direct use (DU) for district heating. To quantify the opportunity space for these technologies, dGeo leverages a highly resolved geospatial database and robust bottom-up, agent-based modeling framework. This design is consistentmore » with others in the family of Distributed Generation Market Demand models (dGen; Sigrin et al. 2016), including the Distributed Solar Market Demand (dSolar) and Distributed Wind Market Demand (dWind) models. dGeo is intended to serve as a long-term scenario-modeling tool. It has the capability to simulate the technical potential, economic potential, market potential, and technology deployment of GHP and DU through the year 2050 under a variety of user-defined input scenarios. Through these capabilities, dGeo can provide substantial analytical value to various stakeholders interested in exploring the effects of various techno-economic, macroeconomic, financial, and policy factors related to the opportunity for GHP and DU in the United States. This report documents the dGeo modeling design, methodology, assumptions, and capabilities.« less

Green Power Grids: How Energy from Renewable Sources Affects Networks and Markets

PubMed Central

Mureddu, Mario; Caldarelli, Guido; Chessa, Alessandro; Scala, Antonio; Damiano, Alfonso

2015-01-01

The increasing attention to environmental issues is forcing the implementation of novel energy models based on renewable sources. This is fundamentally changing the configuration of energy management and is introducing new problems that are only partly understood. In particular, renewable energies introduce fluctuations which cause an increased request for conventional energy sources to balance energy requests at short notice. In order to develop an effective usage of low-carbon sources, such fluctuations must be understood and tamed. In this paper we present a microscopic model for the description and for the forecast of short time fluctuations related to renewable sources in order to estimate their effects on the electricity market. To account for the inter-dependencies in the energy market and the physical power dispatch network, we use a statistical mechanics approach to sample stochastic perturbations in the power system and an agent based approach for the prediction of the market players’ behavior. Our model is data-driven; it builds on one-day-ahead real market transactions in order to train agents’ behaviour and allows us to deduce the market share of different energy sources. We benchmarked our approach on the Italian market, finding a good accordance with real data. PMID:26335705

Green Power Grids: How Energy from Renewable Sources Affects Networks and Markets.

PubMed

Mureddu, Mario; Caldarelli, Guido; Chessa, Alessandro; Scala, Antonio; Damiano, Alfonso

2015-01-01

The increasing attention to environmental issues is forcing the implementation of novel energy models based on renewable sources. This is fundamentally changing the configuration of energy management and is introducing new problems that are only partly understood. In particular, renewable energies introduce fluctuations which cause an increased request for conventional energy sources to balance energy requests at short notice. In order to develop an effective usage of low-carbon sources, such fluctuations must be understood and tamed. In this paper we present a microscopic model for the description and for the forecast of short time fluctuations related to renewable sources in order to estimate their effects on the electricity market. To account for the inter-dependencies in the energy market and the physical power dispatch network, we use a statistical mechanics approach to sample stochastic perturbations in the power system and an agent based approach for the prediction of the market players' behavior. Our model is data-driven; it builds on one-day-ahead real market transactions in order to train agents' behaviour and allows us to deduce the market share of different energy sources. We benchmarked our approach on the Italian market, finding a good accordance with real data.

Sustainability of cross-functional teams for marketing strategy development and implementation.

PubMed

Kono, Ken; Antonucci, Don

2006-01-01

This article presents a case study on a cross-functional team used for marketing strategy development and execution at a health insurance company. The study found a set of success factors that contributed to the initial success of the team, but the factors were not enough to maintain the team's high level of productivity over time. The study later identified a set of 8 factors that helped sustain the team's high-productivity level. The 2 sets (ie, success and its subsequent sustainability factors) are analyzed against a normative model of team effectiveness. All the factors are explained by the normative model except for 1 sustainability factor, "challenge motivator." In fact, the study found the "challenge motivator" to be the most critical factor to keep up the team's productivity over time. Apart from a performance crisis, the authors developed 3 "challenge motivators"--first, more granular market information that could unearth hidden performance issues; second, constant value creation to shareholders as the firm being publicly traded; and third, the firm's strategic mandate to meet and exceed customer expectations that puts ultimate performance pressure on the marketing strategy team.

Modeling of the competition life cycle using the software complex of cellular automata PyCAlab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, D. B.; Beklemishev, K. A.; Medvedev, A. N.; Medvedeva, M. A.

2015-11-01

The aim of the work is to develop a numerical model of the life cycle of competition on the basis of software complex cellular automata PyCAlab. The model is based on the general patterns of growth of various systems in resource-limited settings. At examples it is shown that the period of transition from an unlimited growth of the market agents to the stage of competitive growth takes quite a long time and may be characterized as monotonic. During this period two main strategies of competitive selection coexist: 1) capture of maximum market space with any reasonable costs; 2) saving by reducing costs. The obtained results allow concluding that the competitive strategies of companies must combine two mentioned types of behavior, and this issue needs to be given adequate attention in the academic literature on management. The created numerical model may be used for market research when developing of the strategies for promotion of new goods and services.

Coal Market Module - NEMS Documentation

EIA Publications

2014-01-01

Documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the National Energy Modeling System's (NEMS) Coal Market Module (CMM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of CMM's two submodules. These are the Coal Production Submodule (CPS) and the Coal Distribution Submodule (CDS).

Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ning, Yumei

Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes in prices and volatility to be correlated. The results show that the value of a power plant is much higher using the financial option model than using traditional discounted cash flow.

Discriminant Analysis of Defective and Non-Defective Field Pea (Pisum sativum L.) into Broad Market Grades Based on Digital Image Features.

PubMed

McDonald, Linda S; Panozzo, Joseph F; Salisbury, Phillip A; Ford, Rebecca

2016-01-01

Field peas (Pisum sativum L.) are generally traded based on seed appearance, which subjectively defines broad market-grades. In this study, we developed an objective Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) model to classify market grades of field peas based on seed colour, shape and size traits extracted from digital images. Seeds were imaged in a high-throughput system consisting of a camera and laser positioned over a conveyor belt. Six colour intensity digital images were captured (under 405, 470, 530, 590, 660 and 850nm light) for each seed, and surface height was measured at each pixel by laser. Colour, shape and size traits were compiled across all seed in each sample to determine the median trait values. Defective and non-defective seed samples were used to calibrate and validate the model. Colour components were sufficient to correctly classify all non-defective seed samples into correct market grades. Defective samples required a combination of colour, shape and size traits to achieve 87% and 77% accuracy in market grade classification of calibration and validation sample-sets respectively. Following these results, we used the same colour, shape and size traits to develop an LDA model which correctly classified over 97% of all validation samples as defective or non-defective.

Discriminant Analysis of Defective and Non-Defective Field Pea (Pisum sativum L.) into Broad Market Grades Based on Digital Image Features

PubMed Central

McDonald, Linda S.; Panozzo, Joseph F.; Salisbury, Phillip A.; Ford, Rebecca

2016-01-01

Field peas (Pisum sativum L.) are generally traded based on seed appearance, which subjectively defines broad market-grades. In this study, we developed an objective Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) model to classify market grades of field peas based on seed colour, shape and size traits extracted from digital images. Seeds were imaged in a high-throughput system consisting of a camera and laser positioned over a conveyor belt. Six colour intensity digital images were captured (under 405, 470, 530, 590, 660 and 850nm light) for each seed, and surface height was measured at each pixel by laser. Colour, shape and size traits were compiled across all seed in each sample to determine the median trait values. Defective and non-defective seed samples were used to calibrate and validate the model. Colour components were sufficient to correctly classify all non-defective seed samples into correct market grades. Defective samples required a combination of colour, shape and size traits to achieve 87% and 77% accuracy in market grade classification of calibration and validation sample-sets respectively. Following these results, we used the same colour, shape and size traits to develop an LDA model which correctly classified over 97% of all validation samples as defective or non-defective. PMID:27176469

Interpreting Capability Maturity Model (Trademark) Integration (CMMI (Trademark)) for Business Development Organizations in the Government and Industrial Business Sectors

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

Sales typically covers a shorter period of time and is tactical. Dr. Philip Kotler , in his text Marketing Management, defines marketing as “a...they hear that the most important part of marketing is not selling! Selling is only the tip of the marketing iceberg” [ Kotler 02]. The focus of this...the enterprise’s success, Kotler writes, “The key to achieving its organizational objectives consists of the [enterprise] being more effective than

Entry and Exit.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-03-01

1. Introduction R Analyses of industrial competition have attained a new vigor with the application of game -theoretic methods. The process of... competition is represented in models that reflect genuine struggles for entry, market power, and continuing survival. Dynamics and informational effects are...presents a few of the models developed recently to study competitive processes that affect a firm’s entry into a market , and the decision to exit. The

Account planning: applying an advertising discipline to health communication and social marketing.

PubMed

Mackert, Michael

2012-01-01

As health marketers seek new models to design campaigns, the advertising discipline of account planning offers an approach that can improve campaign development. The underlying principle of account planning is to bring the consumer perspective to all phases of campaign development, primarily through qualitative formative research. Account planners design the overall communication strategy and contribute to creative development of individual executions. The creative brief, a primary tool of account planning, is especially useful in conceptualizing campaigns. This report discusses the history and approach of account planning, followed by an example of account planning in the design of a social marketing campaign.

Positioning hospitals: a model for regional hospitals.

PubMed

Reddy, A C; Campbell, D P

1993-01-01

In an age of marketing warfare in the health care industry, hospitals need creative strategies to compete successfully. Lately, positioning concepts have been added to the health care marketer's arsenal of strategies. To blend theory with practice, the authors review basic positioning theory and present a framework for developing positioning strategies. They also evaluate the marketing strategies of a regional hospital to provide a case example.

Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen, E-mail: fangwen@bjtu.edu.cn

In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also definedmore » in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems.« less

Bringing in the target audience in bystander social marketing materials for communities: suggestions for practitioners.

PubMed

Potter, Sharyn J; Stapleton, Jane G

2011-06-01

The Know Your Power™ social marketing campaign images model active bystander behaviors that target audience members can use in situations where sexual and relationship violence and stalking are occurring, have occurred, or have the potential to occur. In this practitioner note, we describe strategies that we have used to engage target audience members in the development of the social marketing campaign that we hope can be used by practitioners. We give examples from the development and evaluation of the Know Your Power(TM) social marketing campaign that used focus group and other types of feedback from the target audience to inform the direction of the campaign.

Transferable Discharge Permit Trading Under Varying Stream Conditions: A Simulation of Multiperiod Permit Market Performance on the Fox River, Wisconsin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neil, William B.

1983-06-01

The state of Wisconsin has recently established the legislative basis for what may be the first, operating water-pollution permit market in the United States. The efficient properties of such markets have been discussed widely in the theoretical literature, but little empirical work has been published regarding the potential cost savings attainable in specific situations. This paper describes part of the empirical analysis that supported the creation of a transferable discharge permit (TDP) market on the Fox River in Wisconsin. A multiperiod water quality planning model is developed to illustrate the performance of a TDP market under conditions of varying stream flow and temperature. The model is applied to the case of the Fox River and is used to compare the cost of achieving target water quality levels under conventional regulatory rules with the cost associated with operation of a TDP market. In addition to the cost estimates, the simulation of market performance yields information on the probable pattern of trading that may occur in the Fox River TDP market.

The analysis of market knowledge competence effect and research & development (R&D) toward the policy making of new product development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purwanggono, Bambang; Sesuko, Agung; Budiawan, Wiwik

2017-11-01

The increasing mobility of people without adequate provision of mass transportation infrastructures makes people choose private transportation like motorcycles. Such circumstances lead the motorcycle manufacturers in Indonesia competing to develop their products to meet the needs of customers. In addition, the new regulation of Central Bank of Indonesia dealing with the credit advances has raised the intense competition of motorcycles industries in Indonesia. One of the ways to win the competition is by developing new and improved products. In developing and improving the products, companies need to consider resource utilization. In this research, researcher utilizes the resources that exist both inside and outside the enterprise such as customer demands, intensity of competition, perception of the importance of market knowledge, importance of market competence, and internal R&D as well as external R&D is expected to develop new products that are superior. The study involved 150 employees as respondents. The method used in the study is Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with AMOS 20.0 statistical software. The result shows that the demands of the customers and the intensity of competition lead to a positive effect on market knowledge competence, while the perception of the market knowledge importance does not influence the development of new products, and market knowledge competence, internal R&D and external R&D have positive effect on the development of new products.

Artificial Neural Network versus Linear Models Forecasting Doha Stock Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousif, Adil; Elfaki, Faiz

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the instability of Doha stock market and develop forecasting models. Linear time series models are used and compared with a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Technique. It aims to establish the best useful model based on daily and monthly data which are collected from Qatar exchange for the period starting from January 2007 to January 2015. Proposed models are for the general index of Qatar stock exchange and also for the usages in other several sectors. With the help of these models, Doha stock market index and other various sectors were predicted. The study was conducted by using various time series techniques to study and analyze data trend in producing appropriate results. After applying several models, such as: Quadratic trend model, double exponential smoothing model, and ARIMA, it was concluded that ARIMA (2,2) was the most suitable linear model for the daily general index. However, ANN model was found to be more accurate than time series models.

Quantifying social influence in an online cultural market.

PubMed

Krumme, Coco; Cebrian, Manuel; Pickard, Galen; Pentland, Sandy

2012-01-01

We revisit experimental data from an online cultural market in which 14,000 users interact to download songs, and develop a simple model that can explain seemingly complex outcomes. Our results suggest that individual behavior is characterized by a two-step process--the decision to sample and the decision to download a song. Contrary to conventional wisdom, social influence is material to the first step only. The model also identifies the role of placement in mediating social signals, and suggests that in this market with anonymous feedback cues, social influence serves an informational rather than normative role.

Quantifying Social Influence in an Online Cultural Market

PubMed Central

Krumme, Coco; Cebrian, Manuel; Pickard, Galen; Pentland, Sandy

2012-01-01

We revisit experimental data from an online cultural market in which 14,000 users interact to download songs, and develop a simple model that can explain seemingly complex outcomes. Our results suggest that individual behavior is characterized by a two-step process–the decision to sample and the decision to download a song. Contrary to conventional wisdom, social influence is material to the first step only. The model also identifies the role of placement in mediating social signals, and suggests that in this market with anonymous feedback cues, social influence serves an informational rather than normative role. PMID:22590493

Standardized reporting for rapid relative effectiveness assessments of pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Kleijnen, Sarah; Pasternack, Iris; Van de Casteele, Marc; Rossi, Bernardette; Cangini, Agnese; Di Bidino, Rossella; Jelenc, Marjetka; Abrishami, Payam; Autti-Rämö, Ilona; Seyfried, Hans; Wildbacher, Ingrid; Goettsch, Wim G

2014-11-01

Many European countries perform rapid assessments of the relative effectiveness (RE) of pharmaceuticals as part of the reimbursement decision making process. Increased sharing of information on RE across countries may save costs and reduce duplication of work. The objective of this article is to describe the development of a tool for rapid assessment of RE of new pharmaceuticals that enter the market, the HTA Core Model® for Rapid Relative Effectiveness Assessment (REA) of Pharmaceuticals. Eighteen member organisations of the European Network of Health Technology Assessment (EUnetHTA) participated in the development of the model. Different versions of the model were developed and piloted in this collaboration and adjusted accordingly based on feedback on the content and feasibility of the model. The final model deviates from the traditional HTA Core Model® used for assessing other types of technologies. This is due to the limited scope (strong focus on RE), the timing of the assessment (just after market authorisation), and strict timelines (e.g. 90 days) required for performing the assessment. The number of domains and assessment elements was limited and it was decided that the primary information sources should preferably be a submission file provided by the marketing authorisation holder and the European Public Assessment Report. The HTA Core Model® for Rapid REA (version 3.0) was developed to produce standardised transparent RE information of pharmaceuticals. Further piloting can provide input for possible improvements, such as further refining the assessment elements and new methodological guidance on relevant areas.

Marketing Model for Community College.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chahin, Jaime

In order to survive projected enrollment decreases and to better serve nontraditional students, community colleges must develop marketing plans that make effective use of five community resources: local school system personnel, business and industry, civic and social service agencies, college personnel, and the local media. In approaching these…

A Hybrid Approach to Develop an Analytical Model for Enhancing the Service Quality of E-Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Hung-Yi; Lin, Hsin-Yu

2012-01-01

The digital content industry is flourishing as a result of the rapid development of technology and the widespread use of computer networks. As has been reported, the market size of the global e-learning (i.e., distance education and telelearning) will reach USD 49.6 billion in 2014. However, to retain and/or increase the market share associated…

A Synthesis Model of Sustainable Market Orientation: Conceptualization, Measurement, and Influence on Academic Accreditation--A Case Study of Egyptian-Accredited Faculties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abou-Warda, Sherein H.

2014-01-01

Higher education institutions are increasingly concerned about accreditation. Although sustainable market orientation (SMO) bears on academic accreditation, to date, no study has developed a valid scale of SMO or assessed its influence on accreditation. The purpose of this paper is to construct and validate an SMO scale that was developed in…

The Role of Social Support in First-Term Sailors’ Attrition from Recruit Training

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-01

organizational outcomes (Glass & Estes, 1997), burnout (Davis-Sacks, Jayaratne, & Chess, 1985; Lee & Ashforth, 1996; Leiter, 1993; Schaufeli , 1990...stress theory applied to burnout. In Schaufeli , W.B., Maslach, C., & Market, T. (Eds.), Professional burnout: Recent developments in theory and...Considerations of models. In Schaufeli , W.B., Maslach, C., & Market, T. (Eds.), Professional burnout: Recent developments in theory and research (pp. 237

Collaborative Evaluation and Market Research Converge: An Innovative Model Agricultural Development Program Evaluation in Southern Sudan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Sullivan, John M.; O'Sullivan, Rita

2012-01-01

In June and July 2006 a team of outside experts arrived in Yei, Southern Sudan through an AID project to provide support to a local agricultural development project. The team brought evaluation, agricultural marketing and financial management expertise to the in-country partners looking at steps to rebuild the economy of the war ravaged region. A…

Taskmaster: A Prototype Graphical User-Interface to a Schedule Optimization Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-03-01

34Assimilation Paradox" .. ........................... 42 c. O nline H elp ......................................... 43 C. DIRECT MANIPULATION...advantage of these hardware capabilit’es. As a result of these changes, new markets are developing for a variety of computer apTIications that were once...the 1989 meeting of ORSATIMS. In that paper the authors make the following observation. 8 With traditionally developed systems, the potential market

Epidemics in markets with trade friction and imperfect transactions.

PubMed

Moslonka-Lefebvre, Mathieu; Monod, Hervé; Gilligan, Christopher A; Vergu, Elisabeta; Filipe, João A N

2015-06-07

Market trade-routes can support infectious-disease transmission, impacting biological populations and even disrupting trade that conduces the disease. Epidemiological models increasingly account for reductions in infectious contact, such as risk-aversion behaviour in response to pathogen outbreaks. However, responses in market dynamics clearly differ from simple risk aversion, as are driven by other motivation and conditioned by "friction" constraints (a term we borrow from labour economics). Consequently, the propagation of epidemics in markets of, for example livestock, is frictional due to time and cost limitations in the production and exchange of potentially infectious goods. Here we develop a coupled economic-epidemiological model where transient and long-term market dynamics are determined by trade friction and agent adaptation, and can influence disease transmission. The market model is parameterised from datasets on French cattle and pig exchange networks. We show that, when trade is the dominant route of transmission, market friction can be a significantly stronger determinant of epidemics than risk-aversion behaviour. In particular, there is a critical level of friction above which epidemics do not occur, which suggests some epidemics may not be sustained in highly frictional markets. In addition, friction may allow for greater delay in removal of infected agents that still mitigates the epidemic and its impacts. We suggest that policy for minimising contagion in markets could be adjusted to the level of market friction, by adjusting the urgency of intervention or by increasing friction through incentivisation of larger-volume less-frequent transactions that would have limited effect on overall trade flow. Our results are robust to model specificities and can hold in the presence of non-trade disease-transmission routes. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Model documentation: Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-02-17

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas.more » The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The methodology employed allows the analysis of impacts of regional capacity constraints in the interstate natural gas pipeline network and the identification of pipeline capacity expansion requirements. There is an explicit representation of core and noncore markets for natural gas transmission and distribution services, and the key components of pipeline tariffs are represented in a pricing algorithm. Natural gas pricing and flow patterns are derived by obtaining a market equilibrium across the three main elements of the natural gas market: the supply element, the demand element, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. The NGTDM consists of four modules: the Annual Flow Module, the Capacity F-expansion Module, the Pipeline Tariff Module, and the Distributor Tariff Module. A model abstract is provided in Appendix A.« less

Bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fry, John

2014-01-01

In this paper we provide a unifying framework for a set of seemingly disparate models for bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies in financial markets. Markets operate by balancing intrinsic levels of risk and return. This seemingly simple observation is commonly over-looked by academics and practitioners alike. Our model shares its origins in statistical physics with others. However, under our approach, changes in market regime can be explicitly shown to represent a phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices. This structure leads to an improved physical and econometric model. We develop models for bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies. The list of empirical applications is both interesting and topical and includes real-estate bubbles and the on-going Eurozone crisis. We close by comparing the results of our model with purely qualitative findings from the finance literature.

Volatility behavior of visibility graph EMD financial time series from Ising interacting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Bo; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen

2015-08-01

A financial market dynamics model is developed and investigated by stochastic Ising system, where the Ising model is the most popular ferromagnetic model in statistical physics systems. Applying two graph based analysis and multiscale entropy method, we investigate and compare the statistical volatility behavior of return time series and the corresponding IMF series derived from the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method. And the real stock market indices are considered to be comparatively studied with the simulation data of the proposed model. Further, we find that the degree distribution of visibility graph for the simulation series has the power law tails, and the assortative network exhibits the mixing pattern property. All these features are in agreement with the real market data, the research confirms that the financial model established by the Ising system is reasonable.

Developing an Evidence-Based Epilepsy Risk Assessment eHealth Solution: From Concept to Market

PubMed Central

Shankar, Rohit; Hanna, Jane; McLean, Brendan; Osland, Alex; Milligan, Cathryn; Ball, Abbie; Jory, Caryn; Walker, Matthew

2016-01-01

Introduction Sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) is possibly the most common cause of death as a result of complications from epilepsy. The need to educate and regularly review risk for all patients with epilepsy is paramount, but rarely delivered in actual clinical practice. Evidence suggests that education around SUDEP and modifiable risk variables translate into better self-management of epilepsy. Objective We aimed to develop and implement an eHealth solution to support education and self-management of risks, in epilepsy. Methods We undertook an innovation pathways approach, including problem identification, feasibility assessment, design, implementation, and marketing. People with epilepsy were provided a smartphone-based app (Epilepsy Self-Monitor, EpSMon), which translates the clinical risk assessment tool into an educational and self-monitoring platform, for the self-management of epilepsy. Results Results include the success of the marketing campaign, and in what areas, with an estimated reach of approximately 38 million people. EpSMon has proved a success in academic and clinical circles, attracting awards and nominations for awards. The number of users of EpSMon, after 3 months, turned out to be lower than expected (N=221). A 4-month trial of the app in use in the United Kingdom, and the success of the marketing strategy, point to necessary changes to the model of delivery and marketing, summarized in this paper. These include the marketing message, user cost model, and need for the availability of an Android version. Conclusions EpSMon has proven a success in respect to its reception by academics, clinicians, stakeholder groups, and the patients who use it. There is work needed to promote the model and increase its acceptability/attractiveness, including broadening the marketing message, increasing its availability, and reducing its cost. Future development and promotion of the tool will hopefully inform iterative design of its core features for a receptive audience and lead to increased uptake as it is launched worldwide in 2016. PMID:27269382

Developing an Evidence-Based Epilepsy Risk Assessment eHealth Solution: From Concept to Market.

PubMed

Newman, Craig; Shankar, Rohit; Hanna, Jane; McLean, Brendan; Osland, Alex; Milligan, Cathryn; Ball, Abbie; Jory, Caryn; Walker, Matthew

2016-06-07

Sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) is possibly the most common cause of death as a result of complications from epilepsy. The need to educate and regularly review risk for all patients with epilepsy is paramount, but rarely delivered in actual clinical practice. Evidence suggests that education around SUDEP and modifiable risk variables translate into better self-management of epilepsy. We aimed to develop and implement an eHealth solution to support education and self-management of risks, in epilepsy. We undertook an innovation pathways approach, including problem identification, feasibility assessment, design, implementation, and marketing. People with epilepsy were provided a smartphone-based app (Epilepsy Self-Monitor, EpSMon), which translates the clinical risk assessment tool into an educational and self-monitoring platform, for the self-management of epilepsy. Results include the success of the marketing campaign, and in what areas, with an estimated reach of approximately 38 million people. EpSMon has proved a success in academic and clinical circles, attracting awards and nominations for awards. The number of users of EpSMon, after 3 months, turned out to be lower than expected (N=221). A 4-month trial of the app in use in the United Kingdom, and the success of the marketing strategy, point to necessary changes to the model of delivery and marketing, summarized in this paper. These include the marketing message, user cost model, and need for the availability of an Android version. EpSMon has proven a success in respect to its reception by academics, clinicians, stakeholder groups, and the patients who use it. There is work needed to promote the model and increase its acceptability/attractiveness, including broadening the marketing message, increasing its availability, and reducing its cost. Future development and promotion of the tool will hopefully inform iterative design of its core features for a receptive audience and lead to increased uptake as it is launched worldwide in 2016.

The difficult business model for mask equipment makers and mask infrastructure development support from consortia and governments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hector, Scott

2005-11-01

The extension of optical projection lithography through immersion to patterning features with half pitch <=65 nm is placing greater demands on the mask. Strong resolution enhancement techniques (RETs), such as embedded and alternating phase shift masks and complex model-based optical proximity correction, are required to compensate for diffraction and limited depth of focus (DOF). To fabricate these masks, many new or upgraded tools are required to write patterns, measure feature sizes and placement, inspect for defects, review defect printability and repair defects on these masks. Beyond the significant technical challenges, suppliers of mask fabrication equipment face the challenge of being profitable in the small market for mask equipment while encountering significant R&D expenses to bring new generations of mask fabrication equipment to market. The total available market for patterned masks is estimated to be $2.5B to $2.9B per year. The patterned mask market is about 20% of the market size for lithography equipment and materials. The total available market for mask-making equipment is estimated to be about $800M per year. The largest R&D affordability issue arises for the makers of equipment for fabricating masks where total available sales are typically less than ten units per year. SEMATECH has used discounted cash flow models to predict the affordable R&D while maintaining industry accepted internal rates of return. The results have been compared to estimates of the total R&D cost to bring a new generation of mask equipment to market for various types of tools. The analysis revealed that affordability of the required R&D is a significant problem for many suppliers of mask-making equipment. Consortia such as SEMATECH and Selete have played an important role in cost sharing selected mask equipment and material development projects. Governments in the United States, in Europe and in Japan have also helped equipment suppliers with support for R&D. This paper summarizes the challenging business model for mask equipment suppliers and highlight government support for mask equipment and materials development.

Analysing Buyers' and Sellers' Strategic Interactions in Marketplaces: An Evolutionary Game Theoretic Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vytelingum, Perukrishnen; Cliff, Dave; Jennings, Nicholas R.

We develop a new model to analyse the strategic behaviour of buyers and sellers in market mechanisms. In particular, we wish to understand how the different strategies they adopt affect their economic efficiency in the market and to understand the impact of these choices on the overall efficiency of the marketplace. To this end, we adopt a two-population evolutionary game theoretic approach, where we consider how the behaviours of both buyers and sellers evolve in marketplaces. In so doing, we address the shortcomings of the previous state-of-the-art analytical model that assumes that buyers and sellers have to adopt the same mixed strategy in the market. Finally, we apply our model in one of the most common market mechanisms, the Continuous Double Auction, and demonstrate how it allows us to provide new insights into the strategic interactions of such trading agents.

Satellite fixed communications service: A forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 3: Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kratochvil, D.; Bowyer, J.; Bhushan, C.; Steinnagel, K.; Kaushal, D.; Al-Kinani, G.

1983-01-01

Voice applications, data applications, video applications, impacted baseline forecasts, market distribution model, net long haul forecasts, trunking earth station definition and costs, trunking space segment cost, trunking entrance/exit links, trunking network costs and crossover distances with terrestrial tariffs, net addressable forecasts, capacity requirements, improving spectrum utilization, satellite system market development, and the 30/20 net accessible market are considered.

Satellite fixed communications service: A forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 3: Appendices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kratochvil, D.; Bowyer, J.; Bhushan, C.; Steinnagel, K.; Kaushal, D.; Al-Kinani, G.

1983-09-01

Voice applications, data applications, video applications, impacted baseline forecasts, market distribution model, net long haul forecasts, trunking earth station definition and costs, trunking space segment cost, trunking entrance/exit links, trunking network costs and crossover distances with terrestrial tariffs, net addressable forecasts, capacity requirements, improving spectrum utilization, satellite system market development, and the 30/20 net accessible market are considered.

Using a Market Ratio Factor in Faculty Salary Equity Studies. AIR Professional File. Number 103, Spring 2007

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luna, Andrew L.

2007-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if a market ratio factor was a better predictor of faculty salaries than the use of k-1 dummy variables representing the various disciplines. This study used two multiple regression analyses to develop an explanatory model to determine which model might best explain faculty salaries. A total of 20 out of…

Physics of fashion fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donangelo, R.; Hansen, A.; Sneppen, K.; Souza, S. R.

2000-12-01

We consider a market where many agents trade different types of products with each other. We model development of collective modes in this market, and quantify these by fluctuations that scale with time with a Hurst exponent of about 0.7. We demonstrate that individual products in the model occasionally become globally accepted means of exchange, and simultaneously become very actively traded. Thus collective features similar to money spontaneously emerge, without any a priori reason.

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruth, M.; Mai, T.; Newes, E.

2013-03-01

The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompetemore » biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.« less

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruth, M.; Mai, T.; Newes, E.

2013-03-01

The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompetemore » biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.« less

D-brane solutions under market panic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pincak, Richard

The relativistic quantum mechanic approach is used to develop stock market dynamics. The relativistic is conceptional here as the meaning of big external volatility or volatility shock on a financial market. We used a differential geometry approach with the parallel transport of prices to obtain a direct shift of the stock price movement. The prices are represented here as electrons with different spin orientation. Up and down orientations of the spin particle are likened here to an increase or a decrease of stock prices. The parallel transport of stock prices is enriched by Riemann curvature, which describes some arbitrage opportunities in the market. To solve the stock-price dynamics, we used the Dirac equation for bispinors on the spherical brane-world. We found out that when a spherical brane is abbreviated to the disk on the equator, we converge to the ideal behavior of financial market where Black-Scholes as well as semi-classical equations are sufficient. Full spherical brane-world scenarios can describe non-equilibrium market behavior where all arbitrage opportunities as well as transaction costs are taken into account. Real application of the model to the option pricing was done. The model developed in this paper brings quantitative different results of option pricing dynamics in the case of nonzero Riemann curvature.

Life cycle cost optimization of biofuel supply chains under uncertainties based on interval linear programming.

PubMed

Ren, Jingzheng; Dong, Liang; Sun, Lu; Goodsite, Michael Evan; Tan, Shiyu; Dong, Lichun

2015-01-01

The aim of this work was to develop a model for optimizing the life cycle cost of biofuel supply chain under uncertainties. Multiple agriculture zones, multiple transportation modes for the transport of grain and biofuel, multiple biofuel plants, and multiple market centers were considered in this model, and the price of the resources, the yield of grain and the market demands were regarded as interval numbers instead of constants. An interval linear programming was developed, and a method for solving interval linear programming was presented. An illustrative case was studied by the proposed model, and the results showed that the proposed model is feasible for designing biofuel supply chain under uncertainties. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear Schrödinger approach to European option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wróblewski, Marcin

2017-05-01

This paper deals with numerical option pricing methods based on a Schrödinger model rather than the Black-Scholes model. Nonlinear Schrödinger boundary value problems seem to be alternatives to linear models which better reflect the complexity and behavior of real markets. Therefore, based on the nonlinear Schrödinger option pricing model proposed in the literature, in this paper a model augmented by external atomic potentials is proposed and numerically tested. In terms of statistical physics the developed model describes the option in analogy to a pair of two identical quantum particles occupying the same state. The proposed model is used to price European call options on a stock index. the model is calibrated using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm based on market data. A Runge-Kutta method is used to solve the discretized boundary value problem numerically. Numerical results are provided and discussed. It seems that our proposal more accurately models phenomena observed in the real market than do linear models.

Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen; Niu, Hongli

2016-01-01

In recent years, financial market dynamics forecasting has been a focus of economic research. To predict the price indices of stock markets, we developed an architecture which combined Elman recurrent neural networks with stochastic time effective function. By analyzing the proposed model with the linear regression, complexity invariant distance (CID), and multiscale CID (MCID) analysis methods and taking the model compared with different models such as the backpropagation neural network (BPNN), the stochastic time effective neural network (STNN), and the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN), the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices. PMID:27293423

Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks.

PubMed

Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen; Niu, Hongli

2016-01-01

In recent years, financial market dynamics forecasting has been a focus of economic research. To predict the price indices of stock markets, we developed an architecture which combined Elman recurrent neural networks with stochastic time effective function. By analyzing the proposed model with the linear regression, complexity invariant distance (CID), and multiscale CID (MCID) analysis methods and taking the model compared with different models such as the backpropagation neural network (BPNN), the stochastic time effective neural network (STNN), and the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN), the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices.

Growing a market economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Basu, N.; Pryor, R.J.

1997-09-01

This report presents a microsimulation model of a transition economy. Transition is defined as the process of moving from a state-enterprise economy to a market economy. The emphasis is on growing a market economy starting from basic microprinciples. The model described in this report extends and modifies the capabilities of Aspen, a new agent-based model that is being developed at Sandia National Laboratories on a massively parallel Paragon computer. Aspen is significantly different from traditional models of the economy. Aspen`s emphasis on disequilibrium growth paths, its analysis based on evolution and emergent behavior rather than on a mechanistic view ofmore » society, and its use of learning algorithms to simulate the behavior of some agents rather than an assumption of perfect rationality make this model well-suited for analyzing economic variables of interest from transition economies. Preliminary results from several runs of the model are included.« less

Timing is everything :

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kobos, Peter Holmes; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Malczynski, Leonard A.

People save for retirement throughout their career because it is virtually impossible to save all youll need in retirement the year before you retire. Similarly, without installing incremental amounts of clean fossil, renewable or transformative energy technologies throughout the coming decades, a radical and immediate change will be near impossible the year before a policy goal is set to be in place. Therefore, our research question is, To meet our desired technical and policy goals, what are the factors that affect the rate we must install technology to achieve these goals in the coming decades? Existing models do not includemore » full regulatory constraints due to their often complex, and inflexible approaches to solve for optimal engineering instead of robust and multidisciplinary solutions. This project outlines the theory and then develops an applied software tool to model the laboratory-to-market transition using the traditional technology readiness level (TRL) framework, but develops subsequent and a novel regulatory readiness level (RRL) and market readiness level (MRL). This tool uses the ideally-suited system dynamics framework to incorporate feedbacks and time delays. Future energy-economic-environment models, regardless of their programming platform, may adapt this software model component framework or module to further vet the likelihood of new or innovative technology moving through the laboratory, regulatory and market space. The prototype analytical framework and tool, called the Technology, Regulatory and Market Readiness Level simulation model (TRMsim) illustrates the interaction between technology research, application, policy and market dynamics as they relate to a new or innovative technology moving from the theoretical stage to full market deployment. The initial results that illustrate the models capabilities indicate for a hypothetical technology, that increasing the key driver behind each of the TRL, RRL and MRL components individually decreases the time required for the technology to progress through each component by 63, 68 and 64%, respectively. Therefore, under the current working assumptions, to decrease the time it may take for a technology to move from the conceptual stage to full scale market adoption one might consider expending additional effort to secure regulatory approval and reducing the uncertainty of the technologys demand in the marketplace.« less

Distributive Education Competency-Based Curriculum Models by Occupational Clusters. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Rodney E.; Husted, Stewart W.

To meet the needs of distributive education teachers and students, a project was initiated to develop competency-based curriculum models for marketing and distributive education clusters. The models which were developed incorporate competencies, materials and resources, teaching methodologies/learning activities, and evaluative criteria for the…

Community Markets for Conservation (COMACO) links biodiversity conservation with sustainable improvements in livelihoods and food production

PubMed Central

Lewis, Dale; Bell, Samuel D.; Fay, John; Bothi, Kim L.; Gatere, Lydiah; Kabila, Makando; Mukamba, Mwangala; Matokwani, Edwin; Mushimbalume, Matthews; Moraru, Carmen I.; Lehmann, Johannes; Lassoie, James; Wolfe, David; Lee, David R.; Buck, Louise; Travis, Alexander J.

2011-01-01

In the Luangwa Valley, Zambia, persistent poverty and hunger present linked challenges to rural development and biodiversity conservation. Both household coping strategies and larger-scale economic development efforts have caused severe natural resource degradation that limits future economic opportunities and endangers ecosystem services. A model based on a business infrastructure has been developed to promote and maintain sustainable agricultural and natural resource management practices, leading to direct and indirect conservation outcomes. The Community Markets for Conservation (COMACO) model operates primarily with communities surrounding national parks, strengthening conservation benefits produced by these protected areas. COMACO first identifies the least food-secure households and trains them in sustainable agricultural practices that minimize threats to natural resources while meeting household needs. In addition, COMACO identifies people responsible for severe natural resource depletion and trains them to generate alternative income sources. In an effort to maintain compliance with these practices, COMACO provides extension support and access to high-value markets that would otherwise be inaccessible to participants. Because the model is continually evolving via adaptive management, success or failure of the model as a whole is difficult to quantify at this early stage. We therefore test specific hypotheses and present data documenting the stabilization of previously declining wildlife populations; the meeting of thresholds of productivity that give COMACO access to stable, high-value markets and progress toward economic self-sufficiency; and the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices by participants and other community members. Together, these findings describe a unique, business-oriented model for poverty alleviation, food production, and biodiversity conservation. PMID:21873184

Community Markets for Conservation (COMACO) links biodiversity conservation with sustainable improvements in livelihoods and food production.

PubMed

Lewis, Dale; Bell, Samuel D; Fay, John; Bothi, Kim L; Gatere, Lydiah; Kabila, Makando; Mukamba, Mwangala; Matokwani, Edwin; Mushimbalume, Matthews; Moraru, Carmen I; Lehmann, Johannes; Lassoie, James; Wolfe, David; Lee, David R; Buck, Louise; Travis, Alexander J

2011-08-23

In the Luangwa Valley, Zambia, persistent poverty and hunger present linked challenges to rural development and biodiversity conservation. Both household coping strategies and larger-scale economic development efforts have caused severe natural resource degradation that limits future economic opportunities and endangers ecosystem services. A model based on a business infrastructure has been developed to promote and maintain sustainable agricultural and natural resource management practices, leading to direct and indirect conservation outcomes. The Community Markets for Conservation (COMACO) model operates primarily with communities surrounding national parks, strengthening conservation benefits produced by these protected areas. COMACO first identifies the least food-secure households and trains them in sustainable agricultural practices that minimize threats to natural resources while meeting household needs. In addition, COMACO identifies people responsible for severe natural resource depletion and trains them to generate alternative income sources. In an effort to maintain compliance with these practices, COMACO provides extension support and access to high-value markets that would otherwise be inaccessible to participants. Because the model is continually evolving via adaptive management, success or failure of the model as a whole is difficult to quantify at this early stage. We therefore test specific hypotheses and present data documenting the stabilization of previously declining wildlife populations; the meeting of thresholds of productivity that give COMACO access to stable, high-value markets and progress toward economic self-sufficiency; and the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices by participants and other community members. Together, these findings describe a unique, business-oriented model for poverty alleviation, food production, and biodiversity conservation.

Improving Recruiting of the 6th Recruiting Brigade Through Statistical Analysis and Efficiency Measures

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-01

example of maximizing or minimizing decision variables within a model. Carol Stoker and Stephen Mehay present a comparative analysis of marketing and advertising strategies...strategy development process; documenting various recruiting, marketing , and advertising initiatives in each nation; and examining efforts to

Manpower Planning for Marketing and Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eggland, Steven A.; Williams, John W.

1975-01-01

The article describes a planning model developed by the University of Nebraska for specialized distributive education programs at the postsecondary level that collects data from two sources of information--prospective students and potential employers--to determine the need for such programs as floristry, hardware marketing, advertising, and food…

Medical imaging technology shock and volatility of macro economics: Analysis using a three-sector dynamical stochastic general equilibrium REC model.

PubMed

Han, Shurong; Huang, Yeqing

2017-07-07

The study analysed the medical imaging technology business cycle from 1981 to 2009 and found that the volatility of consumption in Chinese medical imaging business was higher than that of the developed countries. The volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) and the correlation between consumption and GDP is also higher than that of the developed countries. Prior to the early 1990s the volatility of consumption is even higher than GDP. This fact makes it difficult to explain the volatile market using the standard one sector real economic cycle (REC) model. Contrary to the other domestic studies, this study considers a three-sector dynamical stochastic general equilibrium REC model. In this model there are two consumption sectors, whereby one is labour intensive and another is capital intensive. The more capital intensive investment sector only introduces technology shocks in the medical imaging market. Our response functions and Monte-Carlo simulation results show that the model can explain 90% of the volatility of consummation relative to GDP, and explain the correlation between consumption and GDP. The results demonstrated the significant correlation between the technological reform in medical imaging and volatility in the labour market on Chinese macro economy development.

[Independent medical processing enterprises as innovative organizational model for market of medical services].

PubMed

Shevchenko, Iu L; Matveev, S A; Makhnev, D A; Korsun, K Iu

2006-01-01

In Russia, current stage of health care development is characterized by occurrence of various problems. Most of them are related to cooperation between participators of market of medical services. Different options are proposed to resolve cooperation problems embedded into medical services market with emphasis on development of ultimately different medical processing enterprise with brand-new organizational and functional structure. Its functioning is based on process management logistics. The company broad professional experience allows to implement above-mentioned managerial structure and make it function as well as claims positive perspectives of described option.

Employing a youth-led adult-guided framework: "Why Drive High?" social marketing campaign.

PubMed

Marko, Terry-Lynne; Watt, Tyler

2011-01-01

The "Drugged Driving Kills project: Why Drive High?" social marketing campaign was developed and implemented by youth leaders and adult facilitators from public and community health to increase youth awareness of the adverse effects of marijuana on driving. The youth-led adult-guided project was founded on the Holden's youth empowerment conceptual model. This article reports on the results of the focus group evaluation, conducted to determine to what extent the tailored youth-led adult-guided framework for the "Why Drive High?" social marketing campaign provided an environment for youth leadership development.

Markets, Herding and Response to External Information.

PubMed

Carro, Adrián; Toral, Raúl; San Miguel, Maxi

2015-01-01

We focus on the influence of external sources of information upon financial markets. In particular, we develop a stochastic agent-based market model characterized by a certain herding behavior as well as allowing traders to be influenced by an external dynamic signal of information. This signal can be interpreted as a time-varying advertising, public perception or rumor, in favor or against one of two possible trading behaviors, thus breaking the symmetry of the system and acting as a continuously varying exogenous shock. As an illustration, we use a well-known German Indicator of Economic Sentiment as information input and compare our results with Germany's leading stock market index, the DAX, in order to calibrate some of the model parameters. We study the conditions for the ensemble of agents to more accurately follow the information input signal. The response of the system to the external information is maximal for an intermediate range of values of a market parameter, suggesting the existence of three different market regimes: amplification, precise assimilation and undervaluation of incoming information.

Renewable generation technology choice and policies in a competitive electricity supply industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Ashok

Renewable energy generation technologies have lower externality costs but higher private costs than fossil fuel-based generation. As a result, the choice of renewables in the future generation mix could be affected by the industry's future market-oriented structure because market objectives based on private value judgments may conflict with social policy objectives toward better environmental quality. This research assesses how renewable energy generation choices would be affected in a restructured electricity generation market. A multi-period linear programming-based model (Resource Planning Model) is used to characterize today's electricity supply market in the United States. The model simulates long-range (2000-2020) generation capacity planning and operation decisions under alternative market paradigms. Price-sensitive demand is used to simulate customer preferences in the market. Dynamically changing costs for renewables and a two-step load duration curve are used. A Reference Case represents the benchmark for a socially-optimal diffusion of renewables and a basis for comparing outcomes under alternative market structures. It internalizes externality costs associated with emissions of sulfur dioxide (SOsb2), nitrous oxides (NOsbx), and carbon dioxide (COsb2). A Competitive Case represents a market with many generation suppliers and decision-making based on private costs. Finally, a Market Power Case models the extreme case of market power: monopoly. The results suggest that the share of renewables would decrease (and emissions would increase) considerably in both the Competitive and the Market Power Cases with respect to the Reference Case. The reduction is greater in the Market Power Case due to pricing decisions under existing supply capability. The research evaluates the following environmental policy options that could overcome market failures in achieving an appropriate level of renewable generation: COsb2 emissions tax, SOsb2 emissions cap, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), and enhanced research and development (R&D). RPS would best ensure an appropriate share of renewables, whereas SOsb2 emissions caps would not support a shift to renewables in an era of inexpensive natural gas. The effectiveness of the policies are dependent on the market structure. If market power exists, the analyses indicate that generally higher levels of intervention would be necessary to achieve a shift to renewables.

Essays in energy policy and planning modeling under uncertainty: Value of information, optimistic biases, and simulation of capacity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Ming-Che

Optimization and simulation are popular operations research and systems analysis tools for energy policy modeling. This dissertation addresses three important questions concerning the use of these tools for energy market (and electricity market) modeling and planning under uncertainty. (1) What is the value of information and cost of disregarding different sources of uncertainty for the U.S. energy economy? (2) Could model-based calculations of the performance (social welfare) of competitive and oligopolistic market equilibria be optimistically biased due to uncertainties in objective function coefficients? (3) How do alternative sloped demand curves perform in the PJM capacity market under economic and weather uncertainty? How does curve adjustment and cost dynamics affect the capacity market outcomes? To address the first question, two-stage stochastic optimization is utilized in the U.S. national MARKAL energy model; then the value of information and cost of ignoring uncertainty are estimated for three uncertainties: carbon cap policy, load growth and natural gas prices. When an uncertainty is important, then explicitly considering those risks when making investments will result in better performance in expectation (positive expected cost of ignoring uncertainty). Furthermore, eliminating the uncertainty would improve strategies even further, meaning that improved forecasts of future conditions are valuable ( i.e., a positive expected value of information). Also, the value of policy coordination shows the difference between a strategy developed under the incorrect assumption of no carbon cap and a strategy correctly anticipating imposition of such a cap. For the second question, game theory models are formulated and the existence of optimistic (positive) biases in market equilibria (both competitive and oligopoly markets) are proved, in that calculated social welfare and producer profits will, in expectation, exceed the values that will actually be received. Theoretical analyses prove the general existence of this bias for both competitive and oligopolistic models when production costs and demand curves are uncertain. Also demonstrated is an optimistic bias for the net benefits of introducing a new technology into a market when the cost of the new technology is uncertainty. The optimistic biases are quantified for a model of the northwest European electricity market (including Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands). Demand uncertainty results in an optimistic bias of 150,000-220,000 [Euro]/hr of total surplus and natural gas price uncertainty yields a smaller bias of 8,000-10,000 [Euro]/hr for total surplus. Further, adding a new uncertain technology (biomass) to the set of possible generation methods almost doubles the optimistic bias (14,000-18,000 [Euro]/hr). The third question concerns ex ante evaluation of the Reliability Pricing Model (RPM)---the new PJM capacity market---launched in June 2007. A Monte Carlo simulation model is developed to simulate PJM capacity market and predict market performance, producer revenue, and consumer payments. An important input to RPM is a demand curve for capacity; several alternative demand curves are compared, and sensitivity analyses conducted of those conclusions. One conclusion is that the sloped demand curves are more robust because those demand curves gives higher reliability with lower consumer payments. In addition, the performance of the curves is evaluated for a more sophisticated market design in which the demand curve can be adjusted in response to previous market outcomes and where the capital costs may change unexpectedly. The simulation shows that curve adjustment increases system reliability with lower consumer payments. Also the effect of learning-by-doing, leading to lower plant capital costs, leads to higher average reserve margin and lower consumer payments. In contrast, a the sudden rise in capital costs causes a decrease in reliability and an increase in consumer payments.

Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (Postcard)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2011-08-01

The U.S. Department of Energy's Wind Powering America initiative provides information on the Jobs and Economic Development Benefits model. This postcard is a marketing piece that stakeholders can provide to interested parties; it will guide them to the Jobs and Economic Development Benefits model section on the Wind Powering America website.

From market games to real-world markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jefferies, P.; Hart, M. L.; Hui, P. M.; Johnson, N. F.

2001-04-01

This paper uses the development of multi-agent market models to present a unified approach to the joint questions of how financial market movements may be simulated, predicted, and hedged against. We first present the results of agent-based market simulations in which traders equipped with simple buy/sell strategies and limited information compete in speculatory trading. We examine the effect of different market clearing mechanisms and show that implementation of a simple Walrasian auction leads to unstable market dynamics. We then show that a more realistic out-of-equilibrium clearing process leads to dynamics that closely resemble real financial movements, with fat-tailed price increments, clustered volatility and high volume autocorrelation. We then show that replacing the `synthetic' price history used by these simulations with data taken from real financial time-series leads to the remarkable result that the agents can collectively learn to identify moments in the market where profit is attainable. Hence on real financial data, the system as a whole can perform better than random. We then employ the formalism of Bouchaud in conjunction with agent based models to show that in general risk cannot be eliminated from trading with these models. We also show that, in the presence of transaction costs, the risk of option writing is greatly increased. This risk, and the costs, can however be reduced through the use of a delta-hedging strategy with modified, time-dependent volatility structure.

Space market model development project, phase 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bishop, Peter C.; Hamel, Gary P.

1989-01-01

The results of a research project investigating information needs for space commercialization is described. The Space Market Model Development Project (SMMDP) was designed to help NASA identify the information needs of the business community and to explore means to meet those needs. The activity of the SMMDP is reviewed and a report of its operation via three sections is presented. The first part contains a brief historical review of the project since inception. The next part reports results of Phase 3, the most recent stage of activity. Finally, overall conclusions and observations based on the SMMDP research results are presented.

Intelligent agents for e-commerce applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuppala, Krishna

1999-12-01

This thesis focuses on development of intelligent agent solutions for e-commerce applications. E-Commerce has several complexities like: lack of information about the players, learning the nature of one's business partners/competitors, finding the right business partner to do business with, using the right strategy to get best profit out of the negotiations etc. The agent models developed can be used in any agent solution for e-commerce. Concepts and techniques from Game Theory and Artificial Intelligence are used. The developed models have several advantages over the existing ones as: the models assume the non-availability of information about other players in the market, the models of players get updated over the time as and when new information comes about the players, the negotiation model incorporates the patience levels of the players and expectations from other players in the market. Power industry has been chosen as the application area for the demonstration of the capabilities and usage of the developed agent models. Two e-commerce scenarios where sellers and buyers can go through the power exchanges to bid in auctions, or make bilateral deals outside of the exchange are addressed. In the first scenario agent helps market participants in coordinating strategies with other participants, bidding in auctions by analyzing and understanding the behavior of other participants. In the second scenario, called "Power Traders Assistant" agent helps power trader, who buys and sells power through bilateral negotiations, in negotiating deals with his customers.

Complexity and multifractal behaviors of multiscale-continuum percolation financial system for Chinese stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Yayun; Wang, Jun; Xu, Kaixuan

2017-04-01

A new financial agent-based time series model is developed and investigated by multiscale-continuum percolation system, which can be viewed as an extended version of continuum percolation system. In this financial model, for different parameters of proportion and density, two Poisson point processes (where the radii of points represent the ability of receiving or transmitting information among investors) are applied to model a random stock price process, in an attempt to investigate the fluctuation dynamics of the financial market. To validate its effectiveness and rationality, we compare the statistical behaviors and the multifractal behaviors of the simulated data derived from the proposed model with those of the real stock markets. Further, the multiscale sample entropy analysis is employed to study the complexity of the returns, and the cross-sample entropy analysis is applied to measure the degree of asynchrony of return autocorrelation time series. The empirical results indicate that the proposed financial model can simulate and reproduce some significant characteristics of the real stock markets to a certain extent.

Turkish Development Prospects and Policies in Light of Experience Elsewhere.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-01-01

is not to say that markets and market prices have the appealing characteristics associated with neoclassical models of perfect competition. Indeed...e.g., the United Kingdom, Italy, and currently, the United States), as well as that of developing countries (e.g., Argentina , Colombia, Indonesia...ready and anxious to invest in the Turkish economy. The crisis coloration of the recent economic picture in Turkey has hardly encouraged such a queue

Production Efficiency and Market Orientation in Food Crops in North West Ethiopia: Application of Matching Technique for Impact Assessment

PubMed Central

Ayenew, Habtamu Yesigat

2016-01-01

Introduction Agricultural technologies developed by national and international research institutions were not benefiting the rural population of Ethiopia to the extent desired. As a response, integrated agricultural extension approaches are proposed as a key strategy to transform the smallholder farming sector. Improving Productivity and Market Success (IPMS) of Ethiopian Farmers project is one of the development projects initiated by integrating productivity enhancement technological schemes with market development model. This paper explores the impact of the project intervention in the smallholder farmers’ wellbeing. Methods To test the research hypothesis of whether the project brought a significant change in the input use, marketed surplus, efficiency and income of farm households, we use a cross-section data from 200 smallholder farmers in Northwest Ethiopia, collected through multi-stage sampling procedure. To control for self-selection from observable characteristics of the farm households, we employ Propensity Score Matching (PSM). We finally use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) techniques to estimate technical efficiency of farm households. Results The outcome of the research is in line with the premises that the participation of the household in the IPMS project improves purchased input use, marketed surplus, efficiency of farms and the overall gain from farming. The participant households on average employ more purchased agricultural inputs and gain higher gross margin from the production activities as compared to the non-participant households. The non-participant households on average supply less output (measured both in monetary terms and proportion of total produce) to the market as compared to their participant counterparts. Except for the technical efficiency of production in potato, project participant households are better-off in production efficiency compared with the non-participant counterparts. Conclusion We verified the idea that Improving Productivity and Market Success (IPMS) of Ethiopian farmers’ project has contributed for the input and out market integration and/or market oriented agricultural production. Overall, we argue that these can be seen as an experimental model with a promising potential to improve the livelihood of the poor. Furthermore, we suggest that it is worthwhile to employ integrated agricultural extension programs with further targeting in the developing world. PMID:27391961

Production Efficiency and Market Orientation in Food Crops in North West Ethiopia: Application of Matching Technique for Impact Assessment.

PubMed

Ayenew, Habtamu Yesigat

2016-01-01

Agricultural technologies developed by national and international research institutions were not benefiting the rural population of Ethiopia to the extent desired. As a response, integrated agricultural extension approaches are proposed as a key strategy to transform the smallholder farming sector. Improving Productivity and Market Success (IPMS) of Ethiopian Farmers project is one of the development projects initiated by integrating productivity enhancement technological schemes with market development model. This paper explores the impact of the project intervention in the smallholder farmers' wellbeing. To test the research hypothesis of whether the project brought a significant change in the input use, marketed surplus, efficiency and income of farm households, we use a cross-section data from 200 smallholder farmers in Northwest Ethiopia, collected through multi-stage sampling procedure. To control for self-selection from observable characteristics of the farm households, we employ Propensity Score Matching (PSM). We finally use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) techniques to estimate technical efficiency of farm households. The outcome of the research is in line with the premises that the participation of the household in the IPMS project improves purchased input use, marketed surplus, efficiency of farms and the overall gain from farming. The participant households on average employ more purchased agricultural inputs and gain higher gross margin from the production activities as compared to the non-participant households. The non-participant households on average supply less output (measured both in monetary terms and proportion of total produce) to the market as compared to their participant counterparts. Except for the technical efficiency of production in potato, project participant households are better-off in production efficiency compared with the non-participant counterparts. We verified the idea that Improving Productivity and Market Success (IPMS) of Ethiopian farmers' project has contributed for the input and out market integration and/or market oriented agricultural production. Overall, we argue that these can be seen as an experimental model with a promising potential to improve the livelihood of the poor. Furthermore, we suggest that it is worthwhile to employ integrated agricultural extension programs with further targeting in the developing world.

Using "Relationship Marketing" Theory To Develop a Training Model for Admissions Recruiters.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gyure, James F.; Arnold, Susan G.

2001-01-01

Addresses a critical aspect of enrollment management by providing a "conceptual training outline" based on relationship marketing and management principles for admissions recruiters and other appropriate enrollment staff. Provides a set of "Attitude Tools" to suggest how various training methods might benefit from a consistent…

Supply chain quality.

PubMed

Feary, Simon

2009-01-01

As the development of complex manufacturing models and virtual companies become more prevalent in today's growing global markets, it is increasingly important to support the relationships between manufacturer and supplier. Utilising these relationships will ensure that supply chains operate more effectively and reduce costs, risks and time-to-market time frames, whilst maintaining product quality.

Design and Operation of Distribution Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parhizi, Sina

The growing penetration of distributed prosumers especially microgrids poses new challenges to the operation of wholesale markets and distribution power systems. Price spikes and higher uncertainty are among these consequences. Distribution markets are envisioned as a remedy to streamline integration of distributed resources and microgrids in the electricity market. This dissertation offers an analytical formulation of electricity markets in the distribution level, considering various prevailing aspects of the market operation problem. The prevailing challenges in regards to integration of microgrids in the electricity markets are illustrated first, and the distribution market operator (DMO) construct is outlined. The day-ahead scheduling of a microgrid participating in a DMO market is formulated and studied. Then the operation of distribution markets integrated with large numbers of responsive participants is considered, and its transactions with the distribution market participants on one hand, and the wholesale market on the other hand are modeled and studied. The market settlement and clearing, essential in operation of distribution markets, is considered and solved. The pricing mechanism in a distribution market is proposed and the relation of distribution and transmission and distribution prices is studied. A more advanced pricing mechanism considering voltages and reactive power is developed and studied. In order to offer a more accurate pricing structure within the distribution system, a linearized distribution power flow is utilized. The performance of the proposed methods is analyzed and the results are presented. Markets have been recently envisioned to be a suitable instrument for integration of distributed energy resources in the distribution system, but most of the discussions surrounding this topic is at the conceptual level. In this work, it is demonstrated that distribution markets are effective in integrating microgrids and distributed resources in the electricity markets, and an analytical model is presented for design and operation of such markets.

Health promotion.

PubMed

Miyake, S; Lucas-Miyake, M

1989-01-01

This article will describe a marketing model for the development of a role for occupational therapy in the industrial market. Health promotion activities are used as a means to diversify existing revenue bases by establishing new referral sources in industry. The technique of need satisfaction -selling or marketing one's services to a customer based on needs expressed by the customer - is reviewed, and implementation of this approach is described from two settings, one in psychiatry and the other in rehabilitation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Max; Smith, Sarah J.; Sohn, Michael D.

Fuel cells are both a longstanding and emerging technology for stationary and transportation applications, and their future use will likely be critical for the deep decarbonization of global energy systems. As we look into future applications, a key challenge for policy-makers and technology market forecasters who seek to track and/or accelerate their market adoption is the ability to forecast market costs of the fuel cells as technology innovations are incorporated into market products. Specifically, there is a need to estimate technology learning rates, which are rates of cost reduction versus production volume. Unfortunately, no literature exists for forecasting future learningmore » rates for fuel cells. In this paper, we look retrospectively to estimate learning rates for two fuel cell deployment programs: (1) the micro-combined heat and power (CHP) program in Japan, and (2) the Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) in California. These two examples have a relatively broad set of historical market data and thus provide an informative and international comparison of distinct fuel cell technologies and government deployment programs. We develop a generalized procedure for disaggregating experience-curve cost-reductions in order to disaggregate the Japanese fuel cell micro-CHP market into its constituent components, and we derive and present a range of learning rates that may explain observed market trends. Finally, we explore the differences in the technology development ecosystem and market conditions that may have contributed to the observed differences in cost reduction and draw policy observations for the market adoption of future fuel cell technologies. The scientific and policy contributions of this paper are the first comparative experience curve analysis of past fuel cell technologies in two distinct markets, and the first quantitative comparison of a detailed cost model of fuel cell systems with actual market data. The resulting approach is applicable to analyzing other fuel cell markets and other energy-related technologies, and highlights the data needed for cost modeling and quantitative assessment of key cost reduction components.« less

Satellite provided customer premise services: A forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 2: Technical report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kratochvil, D.; Bowyer, J.; Bhushan, C.; Steinnagel, K.; Al-Kinani, G.

1983-01-01

The potential United States domestic telecommunications demand for satellite provided customer premises voice, data and video services through the year 2000 were forecast, so that this information on service demand would be available to aid in NASA program planning. To accomplish this overall purpose the following objectives were achieved: development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand, identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Computer premises services systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressabble by Ka-band CPS system, and postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for; 1980, 1990, and 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

Satellite provided customer premise services: A forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 2: Technical report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kratochvil, D.; Bowyer, J.; Bhushan, C.; Steinnagel, K.; Al-Kinani, G.

1983-08-01

The potential United States domestic telecommunications demand for satellite provided customer premises voice, data and video services through the year 2000 were forecast, so that this information on service demand would be available to aid in NASA program planning. To accomplish this overall purpose the following objectives were achieved: development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand, identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Computer premises services systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressabble by Ka-band CPS system, and postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for; 1980, 1990, and 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

Supply Rate and Equilibrium Inventory of Air Force Enlisted Personnel: A Simultaneous Model of the Accession and Retention Markets Incorporating Force Level Constraints. Final Report for Period July 1969-June 1976.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeVany, Arthur S.; And Others

This research was designed to develop and test a model of the Air Force manpower market. The study indicates that previous manpower supply studies failed to account for simultaneous determination of enlistments and retentions and misinterpreted regressions as supply equations. They are, instead, reduced form equations resulting from joint…

New approach of financial volatility duration dynamics by stochastic finite-range interacting voter system.

PubMed

Wang, Guochao; Wang, Jun

2017-01-01

We make an approach on investigating the fluctuation behaviors of financial volatility duration dynamics. A new concept of volatility two-component range intensity (VTRI) is developed, which constitutes the maximal variation range of volatility intensity and shortest passage time of duration, and can quantify the investment risk in financial markets. In an attempt to study and describe the nonlinear complex properties of VTRI, a random agent-based financial price model is developed by the finite-range interacting biased voter system. The autocorrelation behaviors and the power-law scaling behaviors of return time series and VTRI series are investigated. Then, the complexity of VTRI series of the real markets and the proposed model is analyzed by Fuzzy entropy (FuzzyEn) and Lempel-Ziv complexity. In this process, we apply the cross-Fuzzy entropy (C-FuzzyEn) to study the asynchrony of pairs of VTRI series. The empirical results reveal that the proposed model has the similar complex behaviors with the actual markets and indicate that the proposed stock VTRI series analysis and the financial model are meaningful and feasible to some extent.

New approach of financial volatility duration dynamics by stochastic finite-range interacting voter system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guochao; Wang, Jun

2017-01-01

We make an approach on investigating the fluctuation behaviors of financial volatility duration dynamics. A new concept of volatility two-component range intensity (VTRI) is developed, which constitutes the maximal variation range of volatility intensity and shortest passage time of duration, and can quantify the investment risk in financial markets. In an attempt to study and describe the nonlinear complex properties of VTRI, a random agent-based financial price model is developed by the finite-range interacting biased voter system. The autocorrelation behaviors and the power-law scaling behaviors of return time series and VTRI series are investigated. Then, the complexity of VTRI series of the real markets and the proposed model is analyzed by Fuzzy entropy (FuzzyEn) and Lempel-Ziv complexity. In this process, we apply the cross-Fuzzy entropy (C-FuzzyEn) to study the asynchrony of pairs of VTRI series. The empirical results reveal that the proposed model has the similar complex behaviors with the actual markets and indicate that the proposed stock VTRI series analysis and the financial model are meaningful and feasible to some extent.

Satellite provided customer promises services, a forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 4: Sensitivity analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kratochvil, D.; Bowyer, J.; Bhushan, C.; Steinnagel, K.; Kaushal, D.; Al-Kinani, G.

1984-01-01

The overall purpose was to forecast the potential United States domestic telecommunications demand for satellite provided customer promises voice, data and video services through the year 2000, so that this information on service demand would be available to aid in NASA program planning. To accomplish this overall purpose the following objectives were achieved: (1) development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand; (2) identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems; (3) identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by consumer promises service (CPS) systems; (4) identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Ka-band CPS system; and (5) postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a parametric cost model, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for: 1980, 1990, and 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

Satellite provided customer promises services, a forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 4: Sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kratochvil, D.; Bowyer, J.; Bhushan, C.; Steinnagel, K.; Kaushal, D.; Al-Kinani, G.

1984-03-01

The overall purpose was to forecast the potential United States domestic telecommunications demand for satellite provided customer promises voice, data and video services through the year 2000, so that this information on service demand would be available to aid in NASA program planning. To accomplish this overall purpose the following objectives were achieved: (1) development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand; (2) identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems; (3) identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by consumer promises service (CPS) systems; (4) identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Ka-band CPS system; and (5) postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a parametric cost model, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for: 1980, 1990, and 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

Model-based synthesis of locally contingent responses to global market signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magliocca, N. R.

2015-12-01

Rural livelihoods and the land systems on which they depend are increasingly influenced by distant markets through economic globalization. Place-based analyses of land and livelihood system sustainability must then consider both proximate and distant influences on local decision-making. Thus, advancing land change theory in the context of economic globalization calls for a systematic understanding of the general processes as well as local contingencies shaping local responses to global signals. Synthesis of insights from place-based case studies of land and livelihood change is a path forward for developing such systematic knowledge. This paper introduces a model-based synthesis approach to investigating the influence of local socio-environmental and agent-level factors in mediating land-use and livelihood responses to changing global market signals. A generalized agent-based modeling framework is applied to six case-study sites that differ in environmental conditions, market access and influence, and livelihood settings. The largest modeled land conversions and livelihood transitions to market-oriented production occurred in sties with relatively productive agricultural land and/or with limited livelihood options. Experimental shifts in the distributions of agents' risk tolerances generally acted to attenuate or amplify responses to changes in global market signals. Importantly, however, responses of agents at different points in the risk tolerance distribution varied widely, with the wealth gap growing wider between agents with higher or lower risk tolerance. These results demonstrate model-based synthesis is a promising approach to overcome many of the challenges of current synthesis methods in land change science, and to identify generalized as well as locally contingent responses to global market signals.

Investigating the role of personal and context-related factors in convenience foods consumption.

PubMed

Contini, Caterina; Boncinelli, Fabio; Gerini, Francesca; Scozzafava, Gabriele; Casini, Leonardo

2018-07-01

In the scenario of food consumptions, we witness the consumer's growing consideration for the "convenience" attribute. Our study intends to understand the consumer behaviour towards convenience-processed foods by analysing in a single model the role of beliefs, personal traits, social influence and market availability. We applied a Structural Equation Model (SEM) to a representative sample of 426 Italian consumers. The results show a correlation between intention to consume convenience-processed foods and social influence, market availability and several personal traits, suggesting strategies for the development of the convenience food market. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-factor energy price models and exotic derivatives pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hikspoors, Samuel

The high pace at which many of the world's energy markets have gradually been opened to competition have generated a significant amount of new financial activity. Both academicians and practitioners alike recently started to develop the tools of energy derivatives pricing/hedging as a quantitative topic of its own. The energy contract structures as well as their underlying asset properties set the energy risk management industry apart from its more standard equity and fixed income counterparts. This thesis naturally contributes to these broad market developments in participating to the advances of the mathematical tools aiming at a better theory of energy contingent claim pricing/hedging. We propose many realistic two-factor and three-factor models for spot and forward price processes that generalize some well known and standard modeling assumptions. We develop the associated pricing methodologies and propose stable calibration algorithms that motivate the application of the relevant modeling schemes.

Evaluating the Impacts of an Agricultural Water Market in the Guadalupe River Basin, Texas: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, E.; Cai, X.; Minsker, B. S.

2014-12-01

Agriculture comprises about 80 percent of the total water consumption in the US. Under conditions of water shortage and fully committed water rights, market-based water allocations could be promising instruments for agricultural water redistribution from marginally profitable areas to more profitable ones. Previous studies on water market have mainly focused on theoretical or statistical analysis. However, how water users' heterogeneous physical attributes and decision rules about water use and water right trading will affect water market efficiency has been less addressed. In this study, we developed an agent-based model to evaluate the benefits of an agricultural water market in the Guadalupe River Basin during drought events. Agricultural agents with different attributes (i.e., soil type for crops, annual water diversion permit and precipitation) are defined to simulate the dynamic feedback between water availability, irrigation demand and water trading activity. Diversified crop irrigation rules and water bidding rules are tested in terms of crop yield, agricultural profit, and water-use efficiency. The model was coupled with a real-time hydrologic model and run under different water scarcity scenarios. Preliminary results indicate that an agricultural water market is capable of increasing crop yield, agricultural profit, and water-use efficiency. This capability is more significant under moderate drought scenarios than in mild and severe drought scenarios. The water market mechanism also increases agricultural resilience to climate uncertainty by reducing crop yield variance in drought events. The challenges of implementing an agricultural water market under climate uncertainty are also discussed.

Building a comprehensive mill-level database for the Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) model of the U.S. pulp and paper sector.

PubMed

Modak, Nabanita; Spence, Kelley; Sood, Saloni; Rosati, Jacky Ann

2015-01-01

Air emissions from the U.S. pulp and paper sector have been federally regulated since 1978; however, regulations are periodically reviewed and revised to improve efficiency and effectiveness of existing emission standards. The Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) model for the pulp and paper sector is currently under development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and can be utilized to facilitate multi-pollutant, sector-based analyses that are performed in conjunction with regulatory development. The model utilizes a multi-sector, multi-product dynamic linear modeling framework that evaluates the economic impact of emission reduction strategies for multiple air pollutants. The ISIS model considers facility-level economic, environmental, and technical parameters, as well as sector-level market data, to estimate the impacts of environmental regulations on the pulp and paper industry. Specifically, the model can be used to estimate U.S. and global market impacts of new or more stringent air regulations, such as impacts on product price, exports and imports, market demands, capital investment, and mill closures. One major challenge to developing a representative model is the need for an extensive amount of data. This article discusses the collection and processing of data for use in the model, as well as the methods used for building the ISIS pulp and paper database that facilitates the required analyses to support the air quality management of the pulp and paper sector.

Building a Comprehensive Mill-Level Database for the Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) Model of the U.S. Pulp and Paper Sector

PubMed Central

Modak, Nabanita; Spence, Kelley; Sood, Saloni; Rosati, Jacky Ann

2015-01-01

Air emissions from the U.S. pulp and paper sector have been federally regulated since 1978; however, regulations are periodically reviewed and revised to improve efficiency and effectiveness of existing emission standards. The Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) model for the pulp and paper sector is currently under development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and can be utilized to facilitate multi-pollutant, sector-based analyses that are performed in conjunction with regulatory development. The model utilizes a multi-sector, multi-product dynamic linear modeling framework that evaluates the economic impact of emission reduction strategies for multiple air pollutants. The ISIS model considers facility-level economic, environmental, and technical parameters, as well as sector-level market data, to estimate the impacts of environmental regulations on the pulp and paper industry. Specifically, the model can be used to estimate U.S. and global market impacts of new or more stringent air regulations, such as impacts on product price, exports and imports, market demands, capital investment, and mill closures. One major challenge to developing a representative model is the need for an extensive amount of data. This article discusses the collection and processing of data for use in the model, as well as the methods used for building the ISIS pulp and paper database that facilitates the required analyses to support the air quality management of the pulp and paper sector. PMID:25806516

Measuring daily Value-at-Risk of SSEC index: A new approach based on multifractal analysis and extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Yu; Chen, Wang; Lin, Yu

2013-05-01

Recent studies in the econophysics literature reveal that price variability has fractal and multifractal characteristics not only in developed financial markets, but also in emerging markets. Taking high-frequency intraday quotes of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Component (SSEC) Index as example, this paper proposes a new method to measure daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) by combining the newly introduced multifractal volatility (MFV) model and the extreme value theory (EVT) method. Two VaR backtesting techniques are then employed to compare the performance of the model with that of a group of linear and nonlinear generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. The empirical results show the multifractal nature of price volatility in Chinese stock market. VaR measures based on the multifractal volatility model and EVT method outperform many GARCH-type models at high-risk levels.

Development and pilot study of a marketing strategy for primary care/internet-based depression prevention intervention for adolescents (the CATCH-IT intervention).

PubMed

Van Voorhees, Benjamin W; Watson, Natalie; Bridges, John F P; Fogel, Joshua; Galas, Jill; Kramer, Clarke; Connery, Marc; McGill, Ann; Marko, Monika; Cardenas, Alonso; Landsback, Josephine; Dmochowska, Karoline; Kuwabara, Sachiko A; Ellis, Justin; Prochaska, Micah; Bell, Carl

2010-01-01

Adolescent depression is both common and burdensome, and while evidence-based strategies have been developed to prevent adolescent depression, participation in such interventions remains extremely low, with less than 3% of at-risk individuals participating. To promote participation in evidence-based preventive strategies, a rigorous marketing strategy is needed to translate research into practice. To develop and pilot a rigorous marketing strategy for engaging at-risk individuals with an Internet-based depression prevention intervention in primary care targeting key attitudes and beliefs. A marketing design group was constituted to develop a marketing strategy based on the principles of targeting, positioning/competitor analysis, decision analysis, and promotion/distribution and incorporating contemporary models of behavior change. We evaluated the formative quality of the intervention and observed the fielding experience for prevention using a pilot study (observational) design. The marketing plan focused on "resiliency building" rather than "depression intervention" and was relayed by office staff and the Internet site. Twelve practices successfully implemented the intervention and recruited a diverse sample of adolescents with > 30% of all those with positive screens and > 80% of those eligible after phone assessment enrolling in the study with a cost of $58 per enrollee. Adolescent motivation for depression prevention (1-10 scale) increased from a baseline mean value of 7.45 (SD = 2.05) to 8.07 poststudy (SD = 1.33) (P = .048). Marketing strategies for preventive interventions for mental disorders can be developed and successfully introduced and marketed in primary care.

Development and Pilot Study of a Marketing Strategy for Primary Care/Internet–Based Depression Prevention Intervention for Adolescents (The CATCH-IT Intervention)

PubMed Central

Watson, Natalie; Bridges, John F. P.; Fogel, Joshua; Galas, Jill; Kramer, Clarke; Connery, Marc; McGill, Ann; Marko, Monika; Cardenas, Alonso; Landsback, Josephine; Dmochowska, Karoline; Kuwabara, Sachiko A.; Ellis, Justin; Prochaska, Micah; Bell, Carl

2010-01-01

Background: Adolescent depression is both common and burdensome, and while evidence-based strategies have been developed to prevent adolescent depression, participation in such interventions remains extremely low, with less than 3% of at-risk individuals participating. To promote participation in evidence-based preventive strategies, a rigorous marketing strategy is needed to translate research into practice. Objective: To develop and pilot a rigorous marketing strategy for engaging at-risk individuals with an Internet-based depression prevention intervention in primary care targeting key attitudes and beliefs. Method: A marketing design group was constituted to develop a marketing strategy based on the principles of targeting, positioning/competitor analysis, decision analysis, and promotion/distribution and incorporating contemporary models of behavior change. We evaluated the formative quality of the intervention and observed the fielding experience for prevention using a pilot study (observational) design. Results: The marketing plan focused on “resiliency building” rather than “depression intervention” and was relayed by office staff and the Internet site. Twelve practices successfully implemented the intervention and recruited a diverse sample of adolescents with > 30% of all those with positive screens and > 80% of those eligible after phone assessment enrolling in the study with a cost of $58 per enrollee. Adolescent motivation for depression prevention (1–10 scale) increased from a baseline mean value of 7.45 (SD = 2.05) to 8.07 poststudy (SD = 1.33) (P = .048). Conclusions: Marketing strategies for preventive interventions for mental disorders can be developed and successfully introduced and marketed in primary care. PMID:20944776

Longitudinal Study of the Market Penetration of Cockpit Weather Information Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stough, Harry Paul, III; Sireli, Yesim; Ozan, Erol; Kauffmann, Paul

2005-01-01

The purpose of the longitudinal research of the market penetration of cockpit weather information systems (CWIS) is to contribute to the body of knowledge on modeling advanced technology feasibility in aviation by tracking and analyzing the market adoption of CWIS over a three year period. This research takes advantage of a previous study, conducted by Dr. Paul Kauffmann in 2000, which demonstrated an integrated and cost effective approach to evaluate advanced technology feasibility, examining the feasibility of CWIS in five market segments: transport, commuter, general aviation, business, and rotorcraft. The longitudinal research consists of two consecutive studies and produced two reports. The first report was submitted in August 2003 and included general market analysis about the CWIS products in the market at the time, identified their characteristics and examined developing market dynamics.

Quantifying Stock Return Distributions in Financial Markets

PubMed Central

Botta, Federico; Moat, Helen Susannah; Stanley, H. Eugene; Preis, Tobias

2015-01-01

Being able to quantify the probability of large price changes in stock markets is of crucial importance in understanding financial crises that affect the lives of people worldwide. Large changes in stock market prices can arise abruptly, within a matter of minutes, or develop across much longer time scales. Here, we analyze a dataset comprising the stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a second by second resolution in the period from January 2008 to July 2010 in order to quantify the distribution of changes in market prices at a range of time scales. We find that the tails of the distributions of logarithmic price changes, or returns, exhibit power law decays for time scales ranging from 300 seconds to 3600 seconds. For larger time scales, we find that the distributions tails exhibit exponential decay. Our findings may inform the development of models of market behavior across varying time scales. PMID:26327593

Quantifying Stock Return Distributions in Financial Markets.

PubMed

Botta, Federico; Moat, Helen Susannah; Stanley, H Eugene; Preis, Tobias

2015-01-01

Being able to quantify the probability of large price changes in stock markets is of crucial importance in understanding financial crises that affect the lives of people worldwide. Large changes in stock market prices can arise abruptly, within a matter of minutes, or develop across much longer time scales. Here, we analyze a dataset comprising the stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a second by second resolution in the period from January 2008 to July 2010 in order to quantify the distribution of changes in market prices at a range of time scales. We find that the tails of the distributions of logarithmic price changes, or returns, exhibit power law decays for time scales ranging from 300 seconds to 3600 seconds. For larger time scales, we find that the distributions tails exhibit exponential decay. Our findings may inform the development of models of market behavior across varying time scales.

Measures for diffusion of solar PV in selected African countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nygaard, Ivan; Hansen, Ulrich Elmer; Mackenzie, Gordon; Pedersen, Mathilde Brix

2017-08-01

This paper investigates how African governments are considering supporting and promoting the diffusion of solar PV. This issue is explored by examining so-called 'technology action plans (TAPs)', which were main outputs of the Technology Needs Assessment project implemented in 10 African countries from 2010 to 2013. The paper provides a review of three distinct but characteristic trajectories for PV market development in Kenya (private-led market for solar home systems), Morocco (utility-led fee-for service model) and Rwanda (donor-led market for institutional systems). The paper finds that governments' strategies to promoting solar PV are moving from isolated projects towards frameworks for market development and that there are high expectations to upgrading in the PV value chain through local assembly of panels and local production of other system elements. Commonly identified measures include support to: local production; financing schemes; tax exemptions; establishment and reinforcement of standards; technical training; and research and development.

Decisions on new product development under uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yeu-Shiang; Liu, Li-Chen; Ho, Jyh-Wen

2015-04-01

In an intensively competitive market, developing a new product has become a valuable strategy for companies to establish their market positions and enhance their competitive advantages. Therefore, it is essential to effectively manage the process of new product development (NPD). However, since various problems may arise in NPD projects, managers should set up some milestones and subsequently construct evaluative mechanisms to assess their feasibility. This paper employed the approach of Bayesian decision analysis to deal with the two crucial uncertainties for NPD, which are the future market share and the responses of competitors. The proposed decision process can provide a systematic analytical procedure to determine whether an NPD project should be continued or not under the consideration of whether effective usage is being made of the organisational resources. Accordingly, the proposed decision model can assist the managers in effectively addressing the NPD issue under the competitive market.

The Economic Impact of Community College Capacity Development in Developing Countries: A Longitudinal Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tyndorf, Darryl M., Jr.; Glass, Chris R.

2017-01-01

Developing countries have significantly expanded efforts to import more flexible short-cycle institutions based on the United States community college model. The U.S. community college model addresses human capital needs of the labor market in developing countries by increasing access to an affordable education. However, there is limited research…

Regional Differences in Demand for Coal as A Basis for Development of A Product Distribution Model for Mining Companies in the Individual Customers Segment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magda, Roman; Bogacz, Paweł; Franik, Tadeusz; Celej, Maciej; Migza, Marcin

2014-10-01

The article presents a proposal of methodology based on the process of relationship marketing, serving to determine the level of demand for coal in the individual customer segment, as well as fuel distribution model for this customer group in Poland developed on the basis of this methodology. It also includes selected results of tests carried out using the proposed methods. These proposals have been defined on the basis of market capacity indicators, which can be determined for the district level based on data from the Polish Central Statistical Office. The study also included the use of linear programming, based on the cost of coal logistics, data concerning railway, road and storage infrastructure present on the Polish market and taking into account the legal aspects. The presented results may provide a basis for mining companies to develop a system of coal distribution management in the locations with the highest demand values.

In silico regenerative medicine: how computational tools allow regulatory and financial challenges to be addressed in a volatile market

PubMed Central

Geris, L.; Guyot, Y.; Schrooten, J.; Papantoniou, I.

2016-01-01

The cell therapy market is a highly volatile one, due to the use of disruptive technologies, the current economic situation and the small size of the market. In such a market, companies as well as academic research institutes are in need of tools to advance their understanding and, at the same time, reduce their R&D costs, increase product quality and productivity, and reduce the time to market. An additional difficulty is the regulatory path that needs to be followed, which is challenging in the case of cell-based therapeutic products and should rely on the implementation of quality by design (QbD) principles. In silico modelling is a tool that allows the above-mentioned challenges to be addressed in the field of regenerative medicine. This review discusses such in silico models and focuses more specifically on the bioprocess. Three (clusters of) examples related to this subject are discussed. The first example comes from the pharmaceutical engineering field where QbD principles and their implementation through the use of in silico models are both a regulatory and economic necessity. The second example is related to the production of red blood cells. The described in silico model is mainly used to investigate the manufacturing process of the cell-therapeutic product, and pays special attention to the economic viability of the process. Finally, we describe the set-up of a model capturing essential events in the development of a tissue-engineered combination product in the context of bone tissue engineering. For each of the examples, a short introduction to some economic aspects is given, followed by a description of the in silico tool or tools that have been developed to allow the implementation of QbD principles and optimal design. PMID:27051516

In silico regenerative medicine: how computational tools allow regulatory and financial challenges to be addressed in a volatile market.

PubMed

Geris, L; Guyot, Y; Schrooten, J; Papantoniou, I

2016-04-06

The cell therapy market is a highly volatile one, due to the use of disruptive technologies, the current economic situation and the small size of the market. In such a market, companies as well as academic research institutes are in need of tools to advance their understanding and, at the same time, reduce their R&D costs, increase product quality and productivity, and reduce the time to market. An additional difficulty is the regulatory path that needs to be followed, which is challenging in the case of cell-based therapeutic products and should rely on the implementation of quality by design (QbD) principles. In silico modelling is a tool that allows the above-mentioned challenges to be addressed in the field of regenerative medicine. This review discusses such in silico models and focuses more specifically on the bioprocess. Three (clusters of) examples related to this subject are discussed. The first example comes from the pharmaceutical engineering field where QbD principles and their implementation through the use of in silico models are both a regulatory and economic necessity. The second example is related to the production of red blood cells. The described in silico model is mainly used to investigate the manufacturing process of the cell-therapeutic product, and pays special attention to the economic viability of the process. Finally, we describe the set-up of a model capturing essential events in the development of a tissue-engineered combination product in the context of bone tissue engineering. For each of the examples, a short introduction to some economic aspects is given, followed by a description of the in silico tool or tools that have been developed to allow the implementation of QbD principles and optimal design.

The structure of a market containing boundedly rational firms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Adyda; Zura, Nerda; Saaban, Azizan

2017-11-01

The structure of a market is determined by the number of active firms in it. Over time, this number is affected by the exit of existing firms, called incumbents, and entries of new firms, called entrant. In this paper, we considered a market governed by the Cobb-Douglas utility function such that the demand function is isoelastic. Each firm is assumed to produce a single homogenous product under a constant unit cost. Furthermore, firms are assumed to be boundedly rational in adjusting their outputs at each period. A firm is considered to exit the market if its output is negative. In this paper, the market is assumed to have zero barrier-to-entry. Therefore, the exiting firm can reenter the market if its output is positive again, and new firms can enter the market easily. Based on these assumptions and rules, a mathematical model was developed and numerical simulations were run using Matlab. By setting certain values for the parameters in the model, initial numerical simulations showed that in the long run, the number of firms that manages to survive the market varies between zero to 30. This initial result is consistent with the idea that a zero barrier-to-entry may produce a perfectly competitive market.

Design and analysis of electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sioshansi, Ramteen Mehr

Restructured competitive electricity markets rely on designing market-based mechanisms which can efficiently coordinate the power system and minimize the exercise of market power. This dissertation is a series of essays which develop and analyze models of restructured electricity markets. Chapter 2 studies the incentive properties of a co-optimized market for energy and reserves that pays reserved generators their implied opportunity cost---which is the difference between their stated energy cost and the market-clearing price for energy. By analyzing the market as a competitive direct revelation mechanism we examine the properties of efficient equilibria and demonstrate that generators have incentives to shade their stated costs below actual costs. We further demonstrate that the expected energy payments of our mechanism is less than that in a disjoint market for energy only. Chapter 3 is an empirical validation of a supply function equilibrium (SFE) model. By comparing theoretically optimal supply functions and actual generation offers into the Texas spot balancing market, we show the SFE to fit the actual behavior of the largest generators in market. This not only serves to validate the model, but also demonstrates the extent to which firms exercise market power. Chapters 4 and 5 examine equity, incentive, and efficiency issues in the design of non-convex commitment auctions. We demonstrate that different near-optimal solutions to a central unit commitment problem which have similar-sized optimality gaps will generally yield vastly different energy prices and payoffs to individual generators. Although solving the mixed integer program to optimality will overcome such issues, we show that this relies on achieving optimality of the commitment---which may not be tractable for large-scale problems within the allotted timeframe. We then simulate and compare a competitive benchmark for a market with centralized and self commitment in order to bound the efficiency losses stemming from coordination losses (cost of anarchy) in a decentralized market.

Marketing: a flawed concept when applied to health care?

PubMed

Young, A P

Since the introduction of a marketing orientation to the NHS in 1990, arguments continue to abound as to the extent and success of the internal market. This article identifies where and how the market is operating and explores the inherent difficulties of using this model, both ethically and economically. The dangers of increasing inequality, social manipulation, continuing cost pressures, loss of professional autonomy and restricted professional collaboration have to be balanced against the potential value of marketing on performance measures and a more responsive service. The article concludes that marketing needs to be tailored to the particular culture of the NHS rather than copied from the private sector and should emphasize client needs, integrated planning, good communication and the development of agreed quality indicators.

Commercial aspects of semi-reusable launch systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obersteiner, M. H.; Müller, H.; Spies, H.

2003-07-01

This paper presents a business planning model for a commercial space launch system. The financing model is based on market analyses and projections combined with market capture models. An operations model is used to derive the annual cash income. Parametric cost modeling, development and production schedules are used for quantifying the annual expenditures, the internal rate of return, break even point of positive cash flow and the respective prices per launch. Alternative consortia structures, cash flow methods, capture rates and launch prices are used to examine the sensitivity of the model. Then the model is applied for a promising semi-reusable launcher concept, showing the general achievability of the commercial approach and the necessary pre-conditions.

Scientific challenges and opportunities in developing novel vaccines for the emerging and developing markets: New Technologies in Emerging Markets, October 16th-18th 2012, World Vaccine Congress, Lyon.

PubMed

Kochhar, Sonali

2013-04-01

Vaccines have had a major role in enhancing the quality of life and increasing life expectancy. Despite these successes and the development of new vaccine technologies, there remain multiple infectious diseases including AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis that require effective prophylactic vaccines. New and traditional technologies have a role in the development and delivery of the new vaccine candidates. The scientific challenges, opportunities and funding models for developing vaccines for low resource settings are highlighted here.

Analyzing interaction of electricity markets and environmental policies using equilibrium models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yihsu

Around the world, the electric sector is evolving from a system of regulated vertically-integrated monopolies to a complex system of competing generation companies, unregulated traders, and regulated transmission and distribution. One emerging challenge faced by environmental policymakers and electricity industry is the interaction between electricity markets and environmental policies. The objective of this dissertation is to examine these interactions using large-scale computational models of electricity markets based on noncooperative game theory. In particular, this dissertation is comprised of four essays. The first essay studies the interaction of the United States Environmental Protection Agency NOx Budget Program and the mid-Atlantic electricity market. This research quantifies emissions, economic inefficiencies, price distortions, and overall social welfare under various market assumptions using engineering-economic models. The models calculate equilibria for imperfectly competitive markets---Cournot oligopoly---considering the actual landscape of power plants and transmission lines, and including the possibility of market power in the NOx allowances market. The second essay extends the results from first essay and models imperfectly competitive markets using a Stackelberg or leader-follower formulation. A leader in the power and NO x markets is assumed to have perfect foresight of its rivals' responses. The rivals' best response functions are explicitly embedded in the leader's constraints. The solutions quantify the extent to which a leader in the markets can extract economic rents on the expense of its followers. The third essay investigates the effect of implementing the European Union (EU) CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on wholesale power prices in the Western European electricity market. This research uses theoretical and computational modeling approaches to quantify the degree to which CO2 costs were passed on to power prices, and quantifies the windfall profits earned by generators under the current EU allowances allocation method. The results show that the generators in EU could earn substantial windfall profits from two sources: free emissions allowances and increased gross margin among inframarginal generating units. The fourth essay examines effect of climate change on future pollution emissions from regional electricity markets, accounting for how climate influences demand profiles and generation efficiencies. This research illustrates that even when seasonal/annual pollution emissions are limited by regulatory caps, significant increases in emissions during high-demand hours could potentially lead to an increase in the occurrences of acute ozone episodes, which worsen public health during summer months. The major contributions of this dissertation are two fold. First, the methodological and computational framework developed in the research provides a basis for understanding complex interactions among several oligopolistic markets and climate policies. Second, the outcomes of the research reinforce the need for careful monitoring of market interactions and a thorough examination of the design of allowances and power markets.

Impacts of renewable fuel regulation and production on agriculture, energy, and welfare

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPhail, Lihong Lu

The purpose of this dissertation is to study the impact of U.S. federal renewable fuel regulations on energy and agriculture commodity markets and welfare. We consider two federal ethanol policies: the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) contained in the Energy Security and Independence Act of 2007 and tax credits to ethanol blenders contained in the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008. My first essay estimates the distribution of short-run impacts of changing federal ethanol policies on U.S. energy prices, agricultural commodity prices, and welfare through a stochastic partial equilibrium model of U.S. corn, ethanol, and gasoline markets. My second essay focuses on studying the price behavior of the renewable fuel credit (RFC) market, which is the mechanism developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to meet the RFS. RFCs are a tradable, bankable, and borrowable accounting mechanism to ensure that all obligated parties use a mandated level of renewable fuel. I first develop a conceptual framework to understand how the market works and then apply stochastic dynamic programming to simulate prices for RFCs, examine the sensitivity of prices to relevant shocks, and estimate RFC option premiums. My third essay assesses the impact of policy led U.S. ethanol on the markets of global crude oil and U.S. gasoline using a structural Vector Auto Regression model of global crude oil, U.S. gasoline and ethanol markets.

Structural changes and out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance in the stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Xu; Lin, Boqiang

2018-03-01

This paper aims to examine the effects of structural changes on forecasting the realized range-based variance in the stock market. Considering structural changes in variance in the stock market, we develop the HAR-RRV-SC model on the basis of the HAR-RRV model. Subsequently, the HAR-RRV and HAR-RRV-SC models are used to forecast the realized range-based variance of S&P 500 Index. We find that there are many structural changes in variance in the U.S. stock market, and the period after the financial crisis contains more structural change points than the period before the financial crisis. The out-of-sample results show that the HAR-RRV-SC model significantly outperforms the HAR-BV model when they are employed to forecast the 1-day, 1-week, and 1-month realized range-based variances, which means that structural changes can improve out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance. The out-of-sample results remain robust across the alternative rolling fixed-window, the alternative threshold value in ICSS algorithm, and the alternative benchmark models. More importantly, we believe that considering structural changes can help improve the out-of-sample performances of most of other existing HAR-RRV-type models in addition to the models used in this paper.

An overview of a free-market approach to climate change and conservation.

PubMed

Sandor, Richard L; Bettelheim, Eric C; Swingland, Ian R

2002-08-15

This paper describes the convergence of environmental and financial markets, reviews the evolution of market-based environmental programmes as an example of the seven-stage evolutionary process witnessed in a variety of markets and summarizes the emergence of greenhouse-gas-mitigation markets and their potential role in advancing land stewardship, biodiversity and other environmental services. Emissions trading has been developed to meet the demand to reduce pollution while avoiding economic disruption. Consistent with the seven-stage pattern of market evolution, the US programme to reduce the damage from acid rain established a standardized environmental commodity, developed 'evidence of ownership' necessary for financial instruments and provided the infrastructure to efficiently transfer title. The success of the system in reducing pollution at low cost has provided a model for other market-based environmental protection initiatives. The demand for cost-effective action to reduce the threat of climate change has initiated the same evolutionary process for markets to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Many of the land- and forest-management practices that can capture and store atmospheric CO(2) can also provide other environmental benefits, such as biodiversity preservation and enhanced water quality. The presence of a carbon-trading market will introduce a clear financial value for capture and mitigation of CO(2) emissions, thus introducing a new source of funding for land stewardship and forest rehabilitation. The market is now emerging through a variety of 'bottom-up' developments being undertaken through governmental, multilateral, private-sector and non-governmental-organization initiatives. The extension of markets to other emerging environmental issues is now underway, and the linkages between environmental sustainability and capital markets are being more deeply understood. The early evidence indicates that environmental sustainability can be compatible with maximization of shareholder value.

Development of an Agent-based Model to Analyze Contemporary Helium Markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riddle, Matthew E.; Uckun, Canan; Conzelmann, Guenter

Although U.S. helium demand has remained relatively flat since 2009, exports of helium have increased significantly since then, driven primarily by demand for electronic and semiconductor manufacturing in Asia. In the midst of this global demand shift, the Helium Act dictates a new procedure for pricing and distributing the gas through a reserve that historically functioned as a loose “oligarchy.” The new procedure requires prices to be determined by the open market through auctions and a survey of market prices, as opposed to increasing prices according to the consumer price index. Response to these changes has caused temporary shortages, pricemore » increases, and a significant increase in the development of the helium extraction technologies used to produce helium from formerly marginal sources. Technologies are being developed and refined to extract helium from formerly low-yielding natural gas fields containing much lower amounts of helium than the previously considered economic threshold of 0.3%. Combining these transformative policies with the potential for new and significant global supplies from Qatar, Algeria, and Russia could lead to new and unforeseen market behaviors and reactions from global helium markets. The objective of the project is to analyze the global helium markets.« less

Wisconsin's Model Academic Standards for Marketing Education. Bulletin No. 9005.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wisconsin State Dept. of Public Instruction, Madison.

This document contains standards for the academic content of the Wisconsin K-12 curriculum in the area of marketing education. Developed by task forces of educators, parents, board of education members, and employers and employees, the standards cover content, performance, and proficiency areas. The first part of the guide is an introduction that…

Community Colleges and Market Responsiveness: A Conceptual Analysis and Proposed Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Jimmy L.; Edmonson, Stacey L.; Slate, John R.

2013-01-01

In this article, we explore the functions of the traditional community college and its expanding mission in regard to its responsiveness to changing economic conditions and workforce development needs. To date, few researchers have specifically addressed market responsiveness in community college settings across the United States. In addition, we…

Underdevelopment in the U.S. Labor Market: The Case of African American Female Workers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ajanaku, Femi I.; And Others

1991-01-01

The work experience of the African-American woman is often overlooked. In this article, the development/underdevelopment model, usually applied to the depressed situation of the Third World, is used to assess the dynamics of race, class, and gender for African-American females in the labor market. (SLD)

Assessing Competition on the Russian University Market Using a Modified Panzar-Rosse Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sergeeva, Vladlena Vladimirovna

2016-01-01

This paper reviews some government policy measures aimed at strengthening competition in the Russian university market and looks at the best international practices in this area. It analyzes the competitive behavior of universities under the current government policy on higher education and research and development and suggests an approach to…

Situated Leadership: A New Community Leadership Model. CRLRA Discussion Paper Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Falk, Ian

Rural areas around the world face problems stemming from the globalization of agricultural and other markets, the resulting competitiveness for existing and shifting markets, loss of population, and consequent decline of economic and social infrastructure. Rural communities need to develop the ability to manage change, and this requires engaging…

Equilibrium Tuition, Applications, Admissions and Enrollment in the College Market

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fu, Chao

2010-01-01

I develop and structurally estimate an equilibrium model of the college market. Students, who are heterogeneous in both abilities and preferences, make college application decisions, subject to uncertainty and application costs. Colleges observe only noisy measures of student ability and set up tuition and admissions policies to compete for more…

Pricing and Application of Electric Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jialin

Electric storage provides a vehicle to store power for future use. It contributes to the grids in multiple aspects. For instance, electric storage is a more effective approach to provide electricity ancillary services than conventional methods. Additionally, electric storage, especially fast-responding units, allows owners to implement high-frequency power transactions in settings such as the 5-min real-time trading market. Such high-frequency power trades were limited in the past. However, as technology advances, the power markets have evolved. For instance, the California Independent System Operator now supports the 5-min real-time trading and the hourly day-ahead ancillary services bidding. Existing valuation models of electric storage were not designed to accommodate these recent market developments. To fill this gap, I focus on the fast-responding grid-level electric storage that provides both the real-time trading and the day-ahead ancillary services bidding. To evaluate such an asset, I propose a Monte Carlo Simulation-based valuation model. The foundation of my model is simulations of power prices. This study develops a new simulation model of electric prices. It is worth noting that, unlike existing models, my proposed simulation model captures the dependency of the real-time markets on the day-ahead markets. Upon such simulations, this study investigates the pricing and the application of electric storage at a 5-min granularity. Essentially, my model is a Dynamic Programming system with both endogenous variables (i.e., the State-of-Charge of electric storage) and exogenous variables (i.e., power prices). My first numerical example is the valuation of a fictitious 4MWh battery. Similarly, my second example evaluates the application of two units of 2MWh batteries. By comparing these two experiments, I investigate the issues related to battery configurations, such as the impacts of splitting storage capability on the valuation of electric storage.

Modelling of capital asset pricing by considering the lagged effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukono; Hidayat, Y.; Bon, A. Talib bin; Supian, S.

2017-01-01

In this paper the problem of modelling the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) with the effect of the lagged is discussed. It is assumed that asset returns are analysed influenced by the market return and the return of risk-free assets. To analyse the relationship between asset returns, the market return, and the return of risk-free assets, it is conducted by using a regression equation of CAPM, and regression equation of lagged distributed CAPM. Associated with the regression equation lagged CAPM distributed, this paper also developed a regression equation of Koyck transformation CAPM. Results of development show that the regression equation of Koyck transformation CAPM has advantages, namely simple as it only requires three parameters, compared with regression equation of lagged distributed CAPM.

Business models and opportunities for cancer vaccine developers.

PubMed

Kudrin, Alex

2012-10-01

Despite of growing oncology pipeline, cancer vaccines contribute only to a minor share of total oncology-attributed revenues. This is mainly because of a limited number of approved products and limited sales from products approved under compassionate or via early access entry in smaller and less developed markets. However revenue contribution from these products is extremely limited and it remains to be established whether developers are breaking even or achieving profitability with existing sales. Cancer vaccine field is well recognized for high development costs and risks, low historical rates of investment return and high probability of failures arising in ventures, partnerships and alliances. The cost of reimbursement for new oncology agents is not universally acceptable to payers limiting the potential for a global expansion, market access and reducing probability of commercial success. In addition, the innovation in cancer immunotherapy is currently focused in small and mid-size biotech companies and academic institutions struggling for investment. Existing R&D innovation models are deemed unsustainable in current "value-for-money" oriented healthcare environment. New business models should be much more open to collaborative, networked and federated styles, which could help to outreach global, markets and increase cost-efficiencies across an entire value chain. Lessons learned from some developing countries and especially from South Korea illustrate that further growth of cancer vaccine industry will depends not only on new business models but also will heavily rely on regional support and initiatives from different bodies, such as governments, payers and regulatory bodies.

Business models and opportunities for cancer vaccine developers

PubMed Central

Kudrin, Alex

2012-01-01

Despite of growing oncology pipeline, cancer vaccines contribute only to a minor share of total oncology-attributed revenues. This is mainly because of a limited number of approved products and limited sales from products approved under compassionate or via early access entry in smaller and less developed markets. However revenue contribution from these products is extremely limited and it remains to be established whether developers are breaking even or achieving profitability with existing sales. Cancer vaccine field is well recognized for high development costs and risks, low historical rates of investment return and high probability of failures arising in ventures, partnerships and alliances. The cost of reimbursement for new oncology agents is not universally acceptable to payers limiting the potential for a global expansion, market access and reducing probability of commercial success. In addition, the innovation in cancer immunotherapy is currently focused in small and mid-size biotech companies and academic institutions struggling for investment. Existing R&D innovation models are deemed unsustainable in current “value-for-money” oriented healthcare environment. New business models should be much more open to collaborative, networked and federated styles, which could help to outreach global, markets and increase cost-efficiencies across an entire value chain. Lessons learned from some developing countries and especially from South Korea illustrate that further growth of cancer vaccine industry will depends not only on new business models but also will heavily rely on regional support and initiatives from different bodies, such as governments, payers and regulatory bodies. PMID:22894953

[Market of medical services provided to patients with sexually transmitted diseases].

PubMed

Martynenko, A V

2001-01-01

Data are presented from an investigation designed to study market of medical services delivered to patients with sexually transmitted diseases (STD). A model of the purchaser's behaviour of consumers of medical services is developed, decisive factors affecting the choice of a medical institution when applying for a profile medical advice are determined. Submitted in the paper is also an algorythm of analysis of expediency of segmentation of market of medical services delivered to STD patients. The most optimal principles of market segmentation include the following--economic (solvency), territorial (place of residence), social (belonging to one or another stratum of society).

Physics and financial economics (1776-2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models.

PubMed

Sornette, Didier

2014-06-01

This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics--from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics. Recent extensions in terms of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it did not cover the dynamical field of agent-based models (ABMs), also known as computational economic models, of which the Ising-type models are just special ABM implementations. We formulate the 'Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis' to reconcile the pervasive presence of 'noise traders' with the near efficiency of financial markets. Finally, we note that evolutionary biology, more than physics, is now playing a growing role to inspire models of financial markets.

Physics and financial economics (1776-2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sornette, Didier

2014-06-01

This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics—from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics. Recent extensions in terms of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it did not cover the dynamical field of agent-based models (ABMs), also known as computational economic models, of which the Ising-type models are just special ABM implementations. We formulate the ‘Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis’ to reconcile the pervasive presence of ‘noise traders’ with the near efficiency of financial markets. Finally, we note that evolutionary biology, more than physics, is now playing a growing role to inspire models of financial markets.

47 CFR 2.1204 - Import conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... generations of a particular model under development are considered to be separate devices. (4) The radio... particular model under development are considered to be separate devices. (5) The radio frequency device is... offered for sale or marketed. (9) The radio frequency device is a medical implant transmitter inserted in...

47 CFR 2.1204 - Import conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... generations of a particular model under development are considered to be separate devices. (4) The radio... particular model under development are considered to be separate devices. (5) The radio frequency device is... offered for sale or marketed. (9) The radio frequency device is a medical implant transmitter inserted in...

Cap-and-Trade Modeling and Analysis: Congested Electricity Market Equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limpaitoon, Tanachai

This dissertation presents an equilibrium framework for analyzing the impact of cap-and-trade regulation on transmission-constrained electricity market. The cap-and-trade regulation of greenhouse gas emissions has gained momentum in the past decade. The impact of the regulation and its efficacy in the electric power industry depend on interactions of demand elasticity, transmission network, market structure, and strategic behavior of firms. I develop an equilibrium model of an oligopoly electricity market in conjunction with a market for tradable emissions permits to study the implications of such interactions. My goal is to identify inefficiencies that may arise from policy design elements and to avoid any unintended adverse consequences on the electric power sector. I demonstrate this modeling framework with three case studies examining the impact of carbon cap-and-trade regulation. In the first case study, I study equilibrium results under various scenarios of resource ownership and emission targets using a 24-bus IEEE electric transmission system. The second and third case studies apply the equilibrium model to a realistic electricity market, Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) 225-bus system with a detailed representation of the California market. In the first and second case studies, I examine oligopoly in electricity with perfect competition in the permit market. I find that under a stringent emission cap and a high degree of concentration of non-polluting firms, the electricity market is subject to potential abuses of market power. Also, market power can occur in the procurement of non-polluting energy through the permit market when non-polluting resources are geographically concentrated in a transmission-constrained market. In the third case study, I relax the competitive market structure assumption of the permit market by allowing oligopolistic competition in the market through a conjectural variation approach. A short-term equilibrium analysis of the joint markets in the presence of market power reveals that strategic permit trading can play a vital role in determining economic outcomes in the electricity market. In particular, I find that a firm with more efficient technologies can employ strategic withholding of permits, which allows for its increase in output share in the electricity market at the expense of other less efficient firms. In addition, strategic permit trading can influence patterns of transmission congestion. These results illustrate that market structure and transmission congestion can have a significant impact on the market performance and environmental outcome of the regulation while the interactions of such factors can lead to unintended consequences. The proposed approach is proven useful as a tool for market monitoring purposes in the short run from the perspective of a system operator, whose responsibility has become indirectly intertwined with emission trading regulation.

Analysis of Small Aircraft as a Transportation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dollyhigh, Samuel M.; Yackovetsky, Robert E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

An analysis was conducted to examine the market viability of small aircraft as a transportation mode in competition with automobile and scheduled commercial air travel by estimating the pool of users that would potentially switch to on-demand air travel due to cost/time savings. The basis for the analysis model was the Integrated Air Transportation System Evaluation Tool (IATSET) which was developed under contract to NASA by the Logistics Management Institute. IATSET is a macroeconomic model that predicts at a National level the mode choice between automobile, scheduled air, and on-demand air travel based on the value of a travelers time and monetary cost of the trip. A number of modifications are detailed to the original IATSET to better model the changing small aircraft environment. The potential trip market was modeled for the Eclipse 500 operated as a corporate jet and as an air taxi for the business travel market. The Cirrus 20R and a $80K single engine piston aircraft (based on automobile manufacturing technology) are evaluated in the pleasure and personal business travel market.

Sensor-Based Optimization Model for Air Quality Improvement in Home IoT

PubMed Central

Kim, Jonghyuk

2018-01-01

We introduce current home Internet of Things (IoT) technology and present research on its various forms and applications in real life. In addition, we describe IoT marketing strategies as well as specific modeling techniques for improving air quality, a key home IoT service. To this end, we summarize the latest research on sensor-based home IoT, studies on indoor air quality, and technical studies on random data generation. In addition, we develop an air quality improvement model that can be readily applied to the market by acquiring initial analytical data and building infrastructures using spectrum/density analysis and the natural cubic spline method. Accordingly, we generate related data based on user behavioral values. We integrate the logic into the existing home IoT system to enable users to easily access the system through the Web or mobile applications. We expect that the present introduction of a practical marketing application method will contribute to enhancing the expansion of the home IoT market. PMID:29570684

Sensor-Based Optimization Model for Air Quality Improvement in Home IoT.

PubMed

Kim, Jonghyuk; Hwangbo, Hyunwoo

2018-03-23

We introduce current home Internet of Things (IoT) technology and present research on its various forms and applications in real life. In addition, we describe IoT marketing strategies as well as specific modeling techniques for improving air quality, a key home IoT service. To this end, we summarize the latest research on sensor-based home IoT, studies on indoor air quality, and technical studies on random data generation. In addition, we develop an air quality improvement model that can be readily applied to the market by acquiring initial analytical data and building infrastructures using spectrum/density analysis and the natural cubic spline method. Accordingly, we generate related data based on user behavioral values. We integrate the logic into the existing home IoT system to enable users to easily access the system through the Web or mobile applications. We expect that the present introduction of a practical marketing application method will contribute to enhancing the expansion of the home IoT market.

Portfolio-Scale Optimization of Customer Energy Efficiency Incentive and Marketing: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-13-535

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brackney, Larry J.

North East utility National Grid (NGrid) is developing a portfolio-scale application of OpenStudio designed to optimize incentive and marketing expenditures for their energy efficiency (EE) programs. NGrid wishes to leverage a combination of geographic information systems (GIS), public records, customer data, and content from the Building Component Library (BCL) to form a JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) input file that is consumed by an OpenStudio-based expert system for automated model generation. A baseline model for each customer building will be automatically tuned using electricity and gas consumption data, and a set of energy conservation measures (ECMs) associated with each NGrid incentivemore » program will be applied to the model. The simulated energy performance and return on investment (ROI) will be compared with customer hurdle rates and available incentives to A) optimize the incentive required to overcome the customer hurdle rate and B) determine if marketing activity associated with the specific ECM is warranted for that particular customer. Repeated across their portfolio, this process will enable NGrid to substantially optimize their marketing and incentive expenditures, targeting those customers that will likely adopt and benefit from specific EE programs.« less

Integrated rural development programs: a skeptical perspective.

PubMed

Ruttan, V W

1975-11-01

In examining integrated rural development programs the question that arises is why is it possible to identify several relatively successful small-scale or pilot rural development projects yet so difficult to find examples of successful rural development programs. 3 bodies of literature offer some insight into the morphology of rural development projects, programs, and processes: the urban-industrial impact hypothesis; the theory of induced technical change; and the new models of institutional change that deal with institution building and the economics of bureaucratic behavior. The urban-industrial impact hypothesis helps in the clarification of the relationships between the development of rural areas and the development of the total society of which rural areas are a part. It is useful in understanding the spatial dimensions of rural development where rural development efforts are likely to be most successful. Formulation of the hypothesis generated a series of empirical studies designed to test its validity. The effect of these studies has been the development of a rural development model in which the rural community is linked to the urban-industrial economy through a series of market relationships. Both the urban economy's rate of growth and the efficiency of the intersector product and factor markets place significant constraints on the possibilities of rural area development. It is not possible to isolate development processes in the contemporary rural community in a developing society from development processes in the larger society. The induced technical change theory provides a guide as to what must be done to gain access to efficient sources of economic growth, the new resources and incomes that are necessary to sustain rural development. Design of a successful rural development strategy involves a combination of technical and institutional change. The ability of rural areas to respond to the opportunities for economic growth generated by local urban-industrial development, or by the expansion of national and international markets, depends on the capacity for adaptive responses on the part of cultural, political, and economic institutions as well as on technical innovations which can generate substantial new income flows in response to the new economic opportunities. Improvements in the welfare of the rural population in poor regions will call for institutional innovations which effectively link urban and rural areas through a series of nonmarket and market relationships. A major implication of the models is that given the "markets" in which they operate, bureaucracies will be successful in capturing a relatively large share of the economic gains generated by their activities.

Lévy distribution and long correlation times in supermarket sales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groot, Robert D.

2005-08-01

Sales data in a commodity market (supermarket sales to consumers) has been analysed by studying the fluctuation spectrum and noise correlations. Three related products (ketchup, mayonnaise and curry sauce) have been analysed. Most noise in sales is caused by promotions, but here we focus on the fluctuations in baseline sales. These characterise the dynamics of the market. Four hitherto unnoticed effects have been found that are difficult to explain from simple econometric models. These effects are: (1) the noise level in baseline sales is much higher than can be expected for uncorrelated sales events; (2) weekly baseline sales differences are distributed according to a broad non-Gaussian function with fat tails; (3) these fluctuations follow a Lévy distribution of exponent α=1.4, similar to financial exchange markets and in stock markets; and (4) this noise is correlated over a period of 10-11 weeks, or shows an apparent power law spectrum. The similarity to stock markets suggests that models developed to describe these markets may be applied to describe the collective behaviour of consumers.

Micro-Level Adaptation, Macro-Level Selection, and the Dynamics of Market Partitioning

PubMed Central

García-Díaz, César; van Witteloostuijn, Arjen; Péli, Gábor

2015-01-01

This paper provides a micro-foundation for dual market structure formation through partitioning processes in marketplaces by developing a computational model of interacting economic agents. We propose an agent-based modeling approach, where firms are adaptive and profit-seeking agents entering into and exiting from the market according to their (lack of) profitability. Our firms are characterized by large and small sunk costs, respectively. They locate their offerings along a unimodal demand distribution over a one-dimensional product variety, with the distribution peak constituting the center and the tails standing for the peripheries. We found that large firms may first advance toward the most abundant demand spot, the market center, and release peripheral positions as predicted by extant dual market explanations. However, we also observed that large firms may then move back toward the market fringes to reduce competitive niche overlap in the center, triggering nonlinear resource occupation behavior. Novel results indicate that resource release dynamics depend on firm-level adaptive capabilities, and that a minimum scale of production for low sunk cost firms is key to the formation of the dual structure. PMID:26656107

Markets, Herding and Response to External Information

PubMed Central

Carro, Adrián; Toral, Raúl; San Miguel, Maxi

2015-01-01

We focus on the influence of external sources of information upon financial markets. In particular, we develop a stochastic agent-based market model characterized by a certain herding behavior as well as allowing traders to be influenced by an external dynamic signal of information. This signal can be interpreted as a time-varying advertising, public perception or rumor, in favor or against one of two possible trading behaviors, thus breaking the symmetry of the system and acting as a continuously varying exogenous shock. As an illustration, we use a well-known German Indicator of Economic Sentiment as information input and compare our results with Germany’s leading stock market index, the DAX, in order to calibrate some of the model parameters. We study the conditions for the ensemble of agents to more accurately follow the information input signal. The response of the system to the external information is maximal for an intermediate range of values of a market parameter, suggesting the existence of three different market regimes: amplification, precise assimilation and undervaluation of incoming information. PMID:26204451

Micro-Level Adaptation, Macro-Level Selection, and the Dynamics of Market Partitioning.

PubMed

García-Díaz, César; van Witteloostuijn, Arjen; Péli, Gábor

2015-01-01

This paper provides a micro-foundation for dual market structure formation through partitioning processes in marketplaces by developing a computational model of interacting economic agents. We propose an agent-based modeling approach, where firms are adaptive and profit-seeking agents entering into and exiting from the market according to their (lack of) profitability. Our firms are characterized by large and small sunk costs, respectively. They locate their offerings along a unimodal demand distribution over a one-dimensional product variety, with the distribution peak constituting the center and the tails standing for the peripheries. We found that large firms may first advance toward the most abundant demand spot, the market center, and release peripheral positions as predicted by extant dual market explanations. However, we also observed that large firms may then move back toward the market fringes to reduce competitive niche overlap in the center, triggering nonlinear resource occupation behavior. Novel results indicate that resource release dynamics depend on firm-level adaptive capabilities, and that a minimum scale of production for low sunk cost firms is key to the formation of the dual structure.

Electricity market reforms: Institutional developments, investment dynamics and game modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineau, Pierre-Olivier

The reform trend of the 1990's in electricity markets recreates, to some extent, the institutional framework from which they developed one century ago. Although these reforms do not endeavor to completely remove regulation, the basic objectives of deregulation dwell on limiting central and governmental control over the industry in order to promote free competition at all possible levels. To assess whether the electricity industry is or is not moving back to a 19th century structure is not the goal of this thesis. We will rather try to understand on what grounds deregulation reforms stand and review how different countries and large utilities have reacted to this trend. The special nature of electricity (non-storable basic good, centrally produced) creates different obstacles in the restructuring of electricity markets, compared to other industries like the airline or telecommunication ones. For example, the dominant positions of some utilities, the production structure and the importance of electricity in modern life could transform these reforms in a threatening move for consumers. Another specific issue arising from deregulation, now that national energy policy goals no longer rule the behavior of utilities, is how investment will be coordinated in the new market. A key element to keep in sight is the competition level targeted by these reforms. To which extent full competition can really occur in electricity markets remains an unanswered question. Indeed, the oligopolistic structure of the market could prevent such an outcome. An investigation of the investment dynamics in such a context seems therefore appropriate, and this will be an important theme of the thesis. This work offers an analysis of deregulated electricity markets and studies the oligopolistic market dynamics that could prevail in the new structure. Two complementary approaches are used for these purposes. The first is institutional and presents a thorough illustration of the economic arguments advanced to support market reforms and an industry view of the actual strategic actions undertaken by important utilities. Legislative changes will be reviewed for different countries with a discussion on the assessment procedures for these reforms. A detailed example of the reform process in the Finnish electricity market is presented. The investment issue will emerge as an interesting challenge to focus on, due to its importance for the market. The second approach is more analytical and develops on the market equilibria that could result from the new structure. A dynamic model of investment for the electricity market is built and applied to the Finnish market. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Research on application model of blockchain technology in distributed electricity market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, S.; Zeng, B.; Huang, Y. Z.

2017-11-01

In the context of current energy Internet, the emergence of a large number of energy productive consumers will create a new business model. In the decentralized electricity market, the cost of traditional centralized solution construction, management and maintenance is too high, and it is difficult to support the collection, transmission, reception, storage and analysis of massive data. To provide a solution to this phenomenon, we apply the blockchain technology to this distributed electricity market to achieve peer to peer transactions in the power systems. The blockchain technology which is very popular nowadays will be used in power system to establish a credible direct transaction between devices. At first, this article analyzes the future direction of the development of power systems, studies the characteristics of decentralized power systems and summarizes the main issues in the development process. Then, we analyze the basic characteristics of blockchain and put forward a new transaction framework in consideration of problems existing in current energy market. The transaction framework is based on the blockchain technology in the distributed electricity market and includes the pricing method, the power transaction system architecture, various modules of the trading system and the details of the whole transaction system runtime. This framework provides a viable solution for increasingly complex energy transactions.

Optimal GENCO bidding strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Feng

Electricity industries worldwide are undergoing a period of profound upheaval. The conventional vertically integrated mechanism is being replaced by a competitive market environment. Generation companies have incentives to apply novel technologies to lower production costs, for example: Combined Cycle units. Economic dispatch with Combined Cycle units becomes a non-convex optimization problem, which is difficult if not impossible to solve by conventional methods. Several techniques are proposed here: Mixed Integer Linear Programming, a hybrid method, as well as Evolutionary Algorithms. Evolutionary Algorithms share a common mechanism, stochastic searching per generation. The stochastic property makes evolutionary algorithms robust and adaptive enough to solve a non-convex optimization problem. This research implements GA, EP, and PS algorithms for economic dispatch with Combined Cycle units, and makes a comparison with classical Mixed Integer Linear Programming. The electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models. This research identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple period situation. The equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control is then developed for fuel resource constraints. Finally, the research discusses the issues of multiple equilibria and mixed strategies, which are caused by the transmission network. Additionally, an advantage of the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. A market simulator is a valuable training and evaluation tool to assist sellers, buyers, and regulators to understand market performance and make better decisions. A traditional optimization model may not be enough to consider the distributed, large-scale, and complex energy market. This research compares the performance and searching paths of different artificial life techniques such as Genetic Algorithm (GA), Evolutionary Programming (EP), and Particle Swarm (PS), and look for a proper method to emulate Generation Companies' (GENCOs) bidding strategies. After deregulation, GENCOs face risk and uncertainty associated with the fast-changing market environment. A profit-based bidding decision support system is critical for GENCOs to keep a competitive position in the new environment. Most past research do not pay special attention to the piecewise staircase characteristic of generator offer curves. This research proposes an optimal bidding strategy based on Parametric Linear Programming. The proposed algorithm is able to handle actual piecewise staircase energy offer curves. The proposed method is then extended to incorporate incomplete information based on Decision Analysis. Finally, the author develops an optimal bidding tool (GenBidding) and applies it to the RTS96 test system.

Projecting the effects of long-term care policy on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability: insights from a dynamic simulation model.

PubMed

Ansah, John P; Matchar, David B; Malhotra, Rahul; Love, Sean R; Liu, Chang; Do, Young

2016-03-23

Using Singapore as a case study, this paper aims to understand the effects of the current long-term care policy and various alternative policy options on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability. A model of the long-term care system in Singapore was developed using System Dynamics methodology. Under the current long-term care policy, by 2030, 6.9 percent of primary informal family caregivers (0.34 percent of the domestic labor supply) are expected to withdraw from the labor market. Alternative policy options reduce primary informal family caregiver labor market withdrawal; however, the number of workers required to scale up long-term care services is greater than the number of caregivers who can be expected to return to the labor market. Policymakers may face a dilemma between admitting more foreign workers to provide long-term care services and depending on primary informal family caregivers.

The influencing factors of China carbon price: a study based on carbon trading market in hubei province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hao; Lei, Ming

2018-02-01

For the carbon market, good trading mechanism is the basis for the healthy development of the carbon trading market. In order to explore the core problem of carbon price formation, our research explores the influencing factors of the price of carbon trading market. After the preliminary statistical analysis, our study found that Hubei Province is in the leading position among seven pilots in the carbon trading volume and the transaction, so our study of carbon price takes Hubei Province as sample of the empirical research. Multi-time series model and ARCH model analysis method are used in the research, we use the data of Hubei carbon trading pilot from June 2014 to December 2016 to carry out empirical research, the results found that industrial income, energy price, government intervention and the number of participating corporation have significant effect on the carbon price, which provides a meaningful reference for the other pilots in-depth study, as well as the construction of a national carbon trading market.

Needs-based health promotion program serves as HMO marketing tool.

PubMed Central

Donaldson, M S; Nicklason, J A; Ott, J E

1985-01-01

A needs assessment survey was originally conducted at the George Washington University Health Plan in 1981 and repeated in 1983 for evaluation and redirection. The survey resulted in a program which attempted to address the perceived needs of its members. The response, not only of the patients, but also of both the HMO clinical and marketing staffs, resulted in further program development, and established role for health promotion in HMO marketing, and a model of preventive care teaching in ambulatory primary care medicine. PMID:3923532

Towards a balanced value business model for personalized medicine: an outlook.

PubMed

Koelsch, Christof; Przewrocka, Joanna; Keeling, Peter

2013-01-01

Novel targeted drugs, mainly in oncology, have commanded substantial price premiums in the recent past. Consequently, the attention of pharmaceutical companies has shifted away from the traditional low-price and high-volume blockbuster business model to drugs that command high, and sometimes extremely high, prices in limited markets defined by targeted patient populations. This model may have already passed its zenith, as the impact of more and more high-priced drugs coming to market substantially increases their combined burden on payors and public health finances. This article introduces a new 'balanced value' business model for personalized medicine, leveraging the emerging opportunities to reduce drug development cost and time for targeted therapies. This model allows pharmaceutical companies to charge prices for targeted therapy below the likely future thresholds for payors' willingness to pay, at the same time preserving attractive margins for the drug developers.

The highly intelligent virtual agents for modeling financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, G.; Chen, Y.; Huang, J. P.

2016-02-01

Researchers have borrowed many theories from statistical physics, like ensemble, Ising model, etc., to study complex adaptive systems through agent-based modeling. However, one fundamental difference between entities (such as spins) in physics and micro-units in complex adaptive systems is that the latter are usually with high intelligence, such as investors in financial markets. Although highly intelligent virtual agents are essential for agent-based modeling to play a full role in the study of complex adaptive systems, how to create such agents is still an open question. Hence, we propose three principles for designing high artificial intelligence in financial markets and then build a specific class of agents called iAgents based on these three principles. Finally, we evaluate the intelligence of iAgents through virtual index trading in two different stock markets. For comparison, we also include three other types of agents in this contest, namely, random traders, agents from the wealth game (modified on the famous minority game), and agents from an upgraded wealth game. As a result, iAgents perform the best, which gives a well support for the three principles. This work offers a general framework for the further development of agent-based modeling for various kinds of complex adaptive systems.

A Knowledge Discovery from POS Data using State Space Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Tadahiko; Higuchi, Tomoyuki

The number of competing-brands changes by new product's entry. The new product introduction is endemic among consumer packaged goods firm and is an integral component of their marketing strategy. As a new product's entry affects markets, there is a pressing need to develop market response model that can adapt to such changes. In this paper, we develop a dynamic model that capture the underlying evolution of the buying behavior associated with the new product. This extends an application of a dynamic linear model, which is used by a number of time series analyses, by allowing the observed dimension to change at some point in time. Our model copes with a problem that dynamic environments entail: changes in parameter over time and changes in the observed dimension. We formulate the model with framework of a state space model. We realize an estimation of the model using modified Kalman filter/fixed interval smoother. We find that new product's entry (1) decreases brand differentiation for existing brands, as indicated by decreasing difference between cross-price elasticities; (2) decreases commodity power for existing brands, as indicated by decreasing trend; and (3) decreases the effect of discount for existing brands, as indicated by a decrease in the magnitude of own-brand price elasticities. The proposed framework is directly applicable to other fields in which the observed dimension might be change, such as economic, bioinformatics, and so forth.

Comprehensive framework for sustainable container ports development on the US east coast in the 21st century, year two

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-08-01

Building upon the conceptual framework developed during our year one research, a container port and multimodal transportation demand simulation model is applied. The model selects the least-cost (vessel-port-rail-truck) route from sources to markets,...

How a future energy world could look?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewert, M.

2012-10-01

The future energy system will change significantly within the next years as a result of the following Mega Trends: de-carbonization, urbanization, fast technology development, individualization, glocalization (globalization and localization) and changing demographics. Increasing fluctuating renewable production will change the role of non-renewable generation. Distributed energy from renewables and micro generation will change the direction of the energy flow in the electricity grids. Production will not follow demand but demand has to follow production. This future system is enabled by the fast technical development of information and communication technologies which will be present in the entire system. In this paper the results of a comprehensive analysis with different scenarios is summarized. Tools were used like the analysis of policy trends in the European countries, modelling of the European power grid, modelling of the European power markets and the analysis of technology developments with cost reduction potentials. With these tools the interaction of the main actors in the energy markets like conventional generation and renewable generation, grid transport, electricity storage including new storage options from E-Mobility, Power to Gas, Compressed Air Energy storage and demand side management were considered. The potential application of technologies and investments in new energy technologies were analyzed within existing frameworks and markets as well as new business models in new markets with different frameworks. In the paper the over all trend of this analysis is presented by describing a potential future energy world. This world represents only one of numerous options with comparable characteristics.

The HHS-HCC Risk Adjustment Model for Individual and Small Group Markets under the Affordable Care Act

PubMed Central

Kautter, John; Pope, Gregory C; Ingber, Melvin; Freeman, Sara; Patterson, Lindsey; Cohen, Michael; Keenan, Patricia

2014-01-01

Beginning in 2014, individuals and small businesses are able to purchase private health insurance through competitive Marketplaces. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) provides for a program of risk adjustment in the individual and small group markets in 2014 as Marketplaces are implemented and new market reforms take effect. The purpose of risk adjustment is to lessen or eliminate the influence of risk selection on the premiums that plans charge. The risk adjustment methodology includes the risk adjustment model and the risk transfer formula. This article is the second of three in this issue of the Review that describe the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) risk adjustment methodology and focuses on the risk adjustment model. In our first companion article, we discuss the key issues and choices in developing the methodology. In this article, we present the risk adjustment model, which is named the HHS-Hierarchical Condition Categories (HHS-HCC) risk adjustment model. We first summarize the HHS-HCC diagnostic classification, which is the key element of the risk adjustment model. Then the data and methods, results, and evaluation of the risk adjustment model are presented. Fifteen separate models are developed. For each age group (adult, child, and infant), a model is developed for each cost sharing level (platinum, gold, silver, and bronze metal levels, as well as catastrophic plans). Evaluation of the risk adjustment models shows good predictive accuracy, both for individuals and for groups. Lastly, this article provides examples of how the model output is used to calculate risk scores, which are an input into the risk transfer formula. Our third companion paper describes the risk transfer formula. PMID:25360387

CITYZER - Services for effective decision making and environmental resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harri, Ari-Matti; Turtiainen, Heikki; Turpeinen, Jani; Viitala, Erkki; Janka, Kauko; Palonen, Henry; Rönkkö, Topi; Laiho, Tiina; Laitinen, Teija; Haukka, Harri; Schmidt, Walter; Nousiainen, Timo

2016-04-01

The CITYZER project develops new digital services and products to support decision making processes related to weather and air quality in cities. This includes, e.g., early warnings and forecasts (0-24 h), which allow for avoiding weather-related accidents, mitigate human distress and costs from weather-related damage and bad air quality, and generally improve the resilience and safety of the society. The project takes advantage of the latest scientific know-how and directly exploits the expertise obtained from, e.g., Tekes-funded (MMEA [1], RAVAKE) and EU-funded (HAREN, EDHIT [2]) projects. Central to the project is the Observation Network Manager NM10 [3] developed by Vaisala Oyj within the Tekes/MMEA project, on which CITYZER defines and builds new commercial services and connects new sensor networks (e.g., air quality). The target groups of the services and products (e.g., public sector, real estate and energy companies, and distributors) and related business models will be analyzed and developed in collaboration with local player (e.g., Asia, South America) taking advantage of the pre-existing contacts by the Haaga-Helia, Vaisala Oyj and CLIC Innovation. Service models are designed to account for and adapt to the special needs of different areas and customers. The developed services will be scalable (most common platforms) and responsive. CITYZER project partners include Vaisala Oyj (observation instrumentation, systems and products), Sasken Ltd (mobile products), Emtele Ltd (Portable IoT ICT Service Operation Center/Environment and remote intelligent cabinet for sensor network-GW and connections), HSY (urban services), Haaga-Helia University of Applied Sciences (service business models including digital services), Finnish Meteorological Institute (implementation of and scientific research on meteorological & air quality products), and the Tampere University of Technology (definition of and scientific research on air quality products), Pegasor Ltd (support for air quality instrumentation and products), INNO-W Ltd (providing business services support), as well as the CLIC Innovation Ltd as a subcontractor for arranging cooperation with international partners and project information dissemination, as well as composing the consortium agreement and other legal issues. Additional project partners are welcomed to join the project and current consortium encourage all potential partners to contact project management for further details. The business impact of this project to existing markets is estimated to be substantial and it will also create totally new markets especially for weather information related services. The existing whole target market size at this point is estimated to be several billion USD and the size of the market is growing steadily. The key CITYZER outcomes are the piloted services and products with envisaged great commercial and export potential. Development of the services will be managed by Sasken, Emtele, Pegasor and Vaisala and supported by INNO-W. The user profiling and market assessment, including the most potential market area either from Asia or South America, will be led by Haaga-Helia and supported by industrial partners. FMI, Vaisala and Pegasor will use their expertise and current business relations to those foreign markets to speed up and guide the user and market evaluation. Essential potential players are local actors in e.g. Brazil, China and India that will be subcontracted to bring in local expertise in the user profiling and market assessment processes. This three year project is scheduled such that, overall, the first two years focus on implementing the technical basis as well as customer and market analyses. Throughout the course of the project a CityzerDemo test bed environment will be developed in the Helsinki metropolitan area, demonstrating the observational and modeling system and services built on them. In addition, the services and business models will be evaluated. Acknowledgements The project has received funding from TEKES, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation. References [1] http://mmea.fi/ [2] http://edhit.eu/ [3] http://www.vaisala.com/en/products/metdatamanagementsystems/Pages/NM10.aspx

Ambulatory surgery center and general hospital competition: entry decisions and strategic choices.

PubMed

Al-Amin, Mona; Housman, Michael

2012-01-01

General hospitals are consistently under pressure to control cost and improve quality. In addition to mounting payers' demands, hospitals operate under evolving market conditions that might threaten their survival. While hospitals traditionally were concerned mainly with competition from other hospitals, today's reimbursement schemes and entrepreneurial activities encouraged the proliferation of outpatient facilities such as ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) that can jeopardize hospitals' survival. The purpose of this article was to examine the relationship between ASCs and general hospitals. More specifically, we apply the niche overlap theory to study the impact that competition between ASCs and general hospitals has on the survival chances of both of these organizational populations. Our analysis examined interpopulation competition in models of organizational mortality and market demand. We utilized Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the impact of competition from each on ASC and hospital exit while controlling for market factors. We relied on two data sets collected and developed by Florida's Agency for Health Care Administration: outpatient facility licensure data and inpatient and outpatient surgical procedure data. Although ASCs do tend to exit markets in which there are high levels of ASC competition, we found no evidence to suggest that ASC exit rates are affected by hospital density. On the other hand, hospitals not only tend to exit markets with high levels of hospital competition but also experience high exit rates in markets with high ASC density. The implications from our study differ for ASCs and hospitals. When making decisions about market entry, ASCs should choose their markets according to the following: demand for outpatient surgery, number of physicians who would practice in the surgery center, and the number of surgery centers that already exist in the market. Hospitals, on the other hand, should account for competition from ASCs while making market-entry decisions and while developing their strategic plans.

Marketing Mix Formulation for Higher Education: An Integrated Analysis Employing Analytic Hierarchy Process, Cluster Analysis and Correspondence Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ho, Hsuan-Fu; Hung, Chia-Chi

2008-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine how a graduate institute at National Chiayi University (NCYU), by using a model that integrates analytic hierarchy process, cluster analysis and correspondence analysis, can develop effective marketing strategies. Design/methodology/approach: This is primarily a quantitative study aimed at…

Theory and Evidence of Switching Costs in the Market for College Textbooks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMahan, Chris

2013-01-01

This dissertation develops and estimates a model of switching costs in the market for college textbooks. First, in a theoretical setting, this paper characterizes the professor's adoption decision, which includes a trade-off between time and course quality. The professor faces a time cost when he switches textbooks. This switching cost leads…

Modeling the Effects of Army Advertising

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-11-01

was a multipurpose project dealing with advertising effectiveness, advertising strategy efficiency, management of the advertising program and planning...and development of new marketing strategies and segmentation. It is clearly impossible for a project with this breadth of objectives to also satisfy...achieving the broader objective. Likewise, advertising derives its objectives from marketing which when accomplished will lead to the achievement of

Market Dynamics and Optimal Timber Salvage After a Natural Catastrophe

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

2004-01-01

Forest-based natural catastrophes are regular features of timber production in the United States, especially from hurricanes, fires, and insect and disease outbreaks. These catastrophes affect timber prices and result in economic transfers. We develop a model of timber market dynamics after such a catastrophe that shows how timber salvage affects the welfare of...

Using Social Self-Identification in Social Marketing Materials Aimed at Reducing Violence against Women on Campus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Potter, Sharyn J.; Moynihan, Mary M.; Stapleton, Jane G.

2011-01-01

Bystander-focused in person sexual violence prevention programs provide an opportunity for skill development among bystanders and for widening the safety net for survivors. A social marketing campaign was designed modeling prosocial bystander behavior and using content familiar to target audience members by staging and casting scenes to look…

Watershed Controls on the Proper Scale of Economic Markets for Pollution Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigby, J.; Doyle, M. W.; Yates, A.

2010-12-01

Markets for tradable discharge permits (TDPs) are an increasingly popular policy instrument for obtaining cost-effective nutrient reduction targets across watersheds. Such markets are also an emerging, dynamic coupling between economic institutions and stream hydrology/biogeochemistry as trading markets become explicit determinants for the spatial distribution of stream nutrient loads. A central problem in any environmental market program is setting the size of the market, as there are distinct trade-offs for large versus small markets. While the overall cost-effectiveness of permit trading increases with the size of the market, the potential for localized and highly damaging nutrient concentrations, or “hotspots”, also increases. Smaller market size reduces the potential for hot spots by dispersing the location of trades, but this may increase the net costs of water quality compliance significantly through both the restriction of possible trading partners and price manipulation by market participants. This project couples a microeconomic model for TDPs (based on possible configurations of mutually exclusive trading zones within the basin) with a semi-distributed water quality model to examine watershed controls on the configuration and scale of such markets. Our results show a wide variation in total annual cost of pollution abatement based on choice of market design -- often with large differences in cost between very similar configurations. This framework is also applied to a 10-member trading program among wastewater treatment plants in the Neuse River, NC, in order to assess (1) the optimum market design for the Upper Neuse basin and (2) how these costs compare with expected costs under alternative market structures (e.g., trading ratio system) and (3) the cost improvements over traditional command-and-control regulatory frameworks. We find that the optimal zone configuration is almost always a lower cost option when compared to a trading ratio scheme and that the optimal design depends largely on the range of plant sizes and their geographic distribution within the stream network. Leveraging this model, we can develop a heuristic understanding of how the shape or topography of watersheds, and/or the spatial distribution of polluters may constrain the utility of market mechanisms in water quality regulation.

Developing a business-practice model for pharmacy services in ambulatory settings.

PubMed

Harris, Ila M; Baker, Ed; Berry, Tricia M; Halloran, Mary Ann; Lindauer, Kathleen; Ragucci, Kelly R; McGivney, Melissa Somma; Taylor, A Thomas; Haines, Stuart T

2008-02-01

A business-practice model is a guide, or toolkit, to assist managers and clinical pharmacy practitioners in the exploration, proposal, development and implementation of new clinical pharmacy services and/or the enhancement of existing services. This document was developed by the American College of Clinical Pharmacy Task Force on Ambulatory Practice to assist clinical pharmacy practitioners and administrators in the development of business-practice models for new and existing clinical pharmacy services in ambulatory settings. This document provides detailed instructions, examples, and resources on conducting a market assessment and a needs assessment, types of clinical services, operations, legal and regulatory issues, marketing and promotion, service development and exit plan, evaluation of service outcomes, and financial considerations in the development of a clinical pharmacy service in the ambulatory environment. Available literature is summarized, and an appendix provides valuable citations and resources. As ambulatory care practices continue to evolve, there will be increased knowledge of how to initiate and expand the services. This document is intended to serve as an essential resource to assist in the growth and development of clinical pharmacy services in the ambulatory environment.

Reducing Information Gap and Increasing Market Orientation in the Agribusiness Sector: Some Evidences from Apulia Region.

PubMed

Contò, Francesco; Santini, Cristina; La Sala, Piermichele; Fiore, Mariantonietta

2016-01-01

Market orientation plays a crucial role in reinforcing firm's competitive advantage; nevertheless, marketing myopia can negatively affect a clear perception of the market. An organization that defines itself by product rather than by market terms is probably affected by marketing myopia, a narrowness of mind towards any newness - newness respect to firms' convincement and routines - coming from the external environment. In that context some scientific relevant developments that comes from recent patents have been considered. This paper explores the determinants of marketing myopia in the Apulia wine business (South Italy). The aim of this paper is to describe how experiential research based on Consumer Science research tools, can facilitate a better market knowledge. Experimental sessions carried out in 2013 in Apulia with a group of professionals from the oil and wine sectors clearly demonstrate how country of origin effect can improve marketing myopia. Through a protocol based on an "academicians - practitioners" model, professionals can be facilitated in their strategy formulation.

Development of new malaria diagnostics: matching performance and need.

PubMed

Bell, David; Fleurent, Alessandra E; Hegg, Michael C; Boomgard, John D; McConnico, Caitlin C

2016-08-11

Despite advances in diagnostic technology, significant gaps remain in access to malaria diagnosis. Accurate diagnosis and misdiagnosis leads to unnecessary waste of resources, poor disease management, and contributes to a cycle of poverty in low-resourced communities. Despite much effort and investment, few new technologies have reached the field in the last 30 years aside from lateral flow assays. This suggests that much diagnostic development effort has been misdirected, and/or that there are fundamental blocks to introduction of new technologies. Malaria diagnosis is a difficult market; resources are broadly donor-dependent, health systems in endemic countries are frequently weak, and the epidemiology of malaria and priorities of malaria programmes and donors are evolving. Success in diagnostic development will require a good understanding of programme gaps, and the sustainability of markets to address them. Targeting assay development to such clearly defined market requirements will improve the outcomes of product development funding. Six market segments are identified: (1) case management in low-resourced countries, (2) parasite screening for low density infections in elimination programmes, (3) surveillance for evidence of continued transmission, (4) clinical research and therapeutic efficacy monitoring, (5) cross-checking for microscopy quality control, and (6) returned traveller markets distinguished primarily by resource availability. While each of these markets is potentially compelling from a public health standpoint, size and scale are highly variable and continue to evolve. Consequently, return on investment in research and development may be limited, highlighting the need for potentially significant donor involvement or the introduction of novel business models to overcome prohibitive economics. Given the rather specific applications, a well-defined set of stakeholders will need to be on board for the successful introduction and scaling of any new technology to these markets.

The effects of behavioral and structural assumptions in artificial stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xinghua; Gregor, Shirley; Yang, Jianmei

2008-04-01

Recent literature has developed the conjecture that important statistical features of stock price series, such as the fat tails phenomenon, may depend mainly on the market microstructure. This conjecture motivated us to investigate the roles of both the market microstructure and agent behavior with respect to high-frequency returns and daily returns. We developed two simple models to investigate this issue. The first one is a stochastic model with a clearing house microstructure and a population of zero-intelligence agents. The second one has more behavioral assumptions based on Minority Game and also has a clearing house microstructure. With the first model we found that a characteristic of the clearing house microstructure, namely the clearing frequency, can explain fat tail, excess volatility and autocorrelation phenomena of high-frequency returns. However, this feature does not cause the same phenomena in daily returns. So the Stylized Facts of daily returns depend mainly on the agents’ behavior. With the second model we investigated the effects of behavioral assumptions on daily returns. Our study implicates that the aspects which are responsible for generating the stylized facts of high-frequency returns and daily returns are different.

Capacity withholding in wholesale electricity markets: The experience in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, James Arnold

This thesis examines the incentives wholesale electricity generators face to withhold generating capacity from centralized electricity spot markets. The first chapter includes a brief history of electricity industry regulation in England and Wales and in the United States, including a description of key institutional features of England and Wales' restructured electricity market. The first chapter also includes a review of the literature on both bid price manipulation and capacity bid manipulation in centralized electricity markets. The second chapter details a theoretical model of wholesale generator behavior in a single price electricity market. A duopoly model is specified under the assumption that demand is non-stochastic. This model assumes that duopoly generators offer to sell electricity at their marginal cost, but can withhold a continuous segment of their capacity from the market. The Nash equilibrium withholding strategy of this model involves each duopoly generator withholding so that it produces the Cournot equilibrium output. A monopoly model along the lines of the duopoly model is specified and simulated under the assumption that demand is stochastic. The optimal strategy depends on the degree of demand uncertainty. When there is a moderate degree of demand uncertainty, the optimal withholding strategy involves production inefficiencies. When there is a high degree of demand uncertainty, the optimal monopoly quantity is greater than the optimal output level when demand is non-stochastic. The third chapter contains an empirical examination of the behavior of generators in the wholesale electricity market in England and Wales in the early 1990's. The wholesale market in England and Wales is analyzed because the industry structure in the early 1990's created a natural experiment, which is described in this chapter, whereby one of the two dominant generators had no incentive to behave non-competitively. This chapter develops a classification methodology consistent with the equilibrium identified in the second chapter. The availability of generating units owned by the two dominant generators is analyzed based on this classification system. This analysis includes the use of sample statistics as well as estimates from a dynamic random effects probit model. The analysis suggests a minimal degree of capacity withholding.

A slow fashion design model for bluejeans using house of quality approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nergis, B.; Candan, C.; Sarısaltık, S.; Seneloglu, N.; Bozuk, R.; Amzayev, K.

2017-10-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a slow fashion design model using the house of quality model (HOQ) to provide fashion designers a tool to improve the overall sustainability of denim jeans for Y generation consumers in Turkish market. In doing so, a survey was conducted to collect data on the design & performance expectations as well as the perception of slow fashion in design process of denim jeans of the targeted consumer group. The results showed that Y generation in the market gave the most importance to the sustainable production techniques when identifying slow fashion.

Individual welfare maximization in electricity markets including consumer and full transmission system modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, James Daniel

1999-11-01

This dissertation presents a new algorithm that allows a market participant to maximize its individual welfare in the electricity spot market. The use of such an algorithm in determining market equilibrium points, called Nash equilibria, is also demonstrated. The start of the algorithm is a spot market model that uses the optimal power flow (OPF), with a full representation of the transmission system. The OPF is also extended to model consumer behavior, and a thorough mathematical justification for the inclusion of the consumer model in the OPF is presented. The algorithm utilizes price and dispatch sensitivities, available from the Hessian matrix of the OPF, to help determine an optimal change in an individual's bid. The algorithm is shown to be successful in determining local welfare maxima, and the prospects for scaling the algorithm up to realistically sized systems are very good. Assuming a market in which all participants maximize their individual welfare, economic equilibrium points, called Nash equilibria, are investigated. This is done by iteratively solving the individual welfare maximization algorithm for each participant until a point is reached where all individuals stop modifying their bids. It is shown that these Nash equilibria can be located in this manner. However, it is also demonstrated that equilibria do not always exist, and are not always unique when they do exist. It is also shown that individual welfare is a highly nonconcave function resulting in many local maxima. As a result, a more global optimization technique, using a genetic algorithm (GA), is investigated. The genetic algorithm is successfully demonstrated on several systems. It is also shown that a GA can be developed using special niche methods, which allow a GA to converge to several local optima at once. Finally, the last chapter of this dissertation covers the development of a new computer visualization routine for power system analysis: contouring. The contouring algorithm is demonstrated to be useful in visualizing bus-based and transmission line-based quantities.

[Research model on commodity specification standard of radix Chinese materia medica].

PubMed

Kang, Chuan-Zhi; Zhou, Tao; Jiang, Wei-Ke; Huang, Lu-Qi; Guo, Lan-Ping

2016-03-01

As an important part of the market commodity circulation, the standard grade of Chinese traditional medicine commodity is very important to restrict the market order and guarantee the quality of the medicinal material. The State Council issuing the "protection and development of Chinese herbal medicine (2015-2020)" also make clear that the important task of improving the circulation of Chinese herbal medicine industry norms and the commodity specification standard of common traditional Chinese medicinal materials. However, as a large class of Chinese herbal medicines, the standard grade of the radix is more confused in the market circulation, and lack of a more reasonable study model in the development of the standard. Thus, this paper summarizes the research background, present situation and problems, and several key points of the commodity specification and grade standard in radix herbs. Then, the research model is introduced as an example of Pseudostellariae Radix, so as to provide technical support and reference for formulating commodity specifications and grades standard in other radix traditional Chinese medicinal materials. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Regional price targets appropriate for advanced coal extraction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terasawa, K. L.; Whipple, D. M.

1980-01-01

A methodology is presented for predicting coal prices in regional markets for the target time frames 1985 and 2000 that could subsequently be used to guide the development of an advanced coal extraction system. The model constructed is a supply and demand model that focuses on underground mining since the advanced technology is expected to be developed for these reserves by the target years. Coal reserve data and the cost of operating a mine are used to obtain the minimum acceptable selling price that would induce the producer to bring the mine into production. Based on this information, market supply curves can be generated. Demand by region is calculated based on an EEA methodology that emphasizes demand by electric utilities and demand by industry. The demand and supply curves are then used to obtain the price targets. The results show a growth in the size of the markets for compliance and low sulphur coal regions. A significant rise in the real price of coal is not expected even by the year 2000. The model predicts heavy reliance on mines with thick seams, larger block size and deep overburden.

Model of Market Share Affected by Social Media Reputation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishii, Akira; Kawahata, Yasuko; Goto, Ujo

Proposal of market theory to put the effect of social media into account is presented in this paper. The standard market share model in economics is employed as a market theory and the effect of social media is considered quantitatively using the mathematical model for hit phenomena. Using this model, we can estimate the effect of social media in market share as a simple market model simulation using our proposed method.

A woman's place: household labour allocation in rural Kenya.

PubMed

Neitzert, M

1994-01-01

This article synthesizes the literature on household labor allocation. The review reveals that development policies impacting on the labor market favor men over women. Male favoritism also occurs in household decision-making. Data from the 1988 Rural Labor Force Survey were used to examine rural household labor allocation in 1988 and the extent of female and male participation in home and market production and the degree of labor market discrimination against women. It is argued that the standard neoclassical model of economics does not recognize the unequal bargaining power of each member of the household in arriving at a solution to the joint welfare maximization problem. Women's position is expected to worsen during economic development. Women will have less than full participation in the labor market. Women's distinct role in household welfare provision is often disregarded. Development policy mainly focuses on market activities where women hold few positions. Labor allocation in the empirical analysis pertains to the mean hours per week in farm activities, household activities, schooling, and paid or unpaid non-farm work. Findings indicate that average earnings were lower for females than males and that returns to education and training were higher for males than females. Wage discrimination accounted for 30-66% of the earnings gap between rural men and women. Women faced discrimination on their returns to human capital and occupational choices. The concentration of women in low-paying jobs accounted for 21% of the wage gap. Women's lower education accounted for over 10%. Findings suggest that Kenyan households respond to market incentives. Women worked longer hours than men and contributed more to household welfare. Policy should focus on models of household provisioning and not on a joint utility function. Policy should encourage households to revise labor allocation strategies.

Agent-based Model for the Coupled Human-Climate System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zvoleff, A.; Werner, B.

2006-12-01

Integrated assessment models have been used to predict the outcome of coupled economic growth, resource use, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, both for scientific and policy purposes. These models generally have employed significant simplifications that suppress nonlinearities and the possibility of multiple equilibria in both their economic (DeCanio, 2005) and climate (Schneider and Kuntz-Duriseti, 2002) components. As one step toward exploring general features of the nonlinear dynamics of the coupled system, we have developed a series of variations on the well studied RICE and DICE models, which employ different forms of agent-based market dynamics and "climate surprises." Markets are introduced through the replacement of the production function of the DICE/RICE models with an agent-based market modeling the interactions of producers, policymakers, and consumer agents. Technological change and population growth are treated endogenously. Climate surprises are representations of positive (for example, ice sheet collapse) or negative (for example, increased aerosols from desertification) feedbacks that are turned on with probability depending on warming. Initial results point toward the possibility of large amplitude instabilities in the coupled human-climate system owing to the mismatch between short outlook market dynamics and long term climate responses. Implications for predictability of future climate will be discussed. Supported by the Andrew W Mellon Foundation and the UC Academic Senate.

Nonlinear complexity of random visibility graph and Lempel-Ziv on multitype range-intensity interacting financial dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yali; Wang, Jun

2017-09-01

In an attempt to investigate the nonlinear complex evolution of financial dynamics, a new financial price model - the multitype range-intensity contact (MRIC) financial model, is developed based on the multitype range-intensity interacting contact system, in which the interaction and transmission of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are simulated by viruses spreading. Two new random visibility graph (VG) based analyses and Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZC) are applied to study the complex behaviors of return time series and the corresponding random sorted series. The VG method is the complex network theory, and the LZC is a non-parametric measure of complexity reflecting the rate of new pattern generation of a series. In this work, the real stock market indices are considered to be comparatively studied with the simulation data of the proposed model. Further, the numerical empirical study shows the similar complexity behaviors between the model and the real markets, the research confirms that the financial model is reasonable to some extent.

Internal marketing and the antecedents of nurse satisfaction and loyalty.

PubMed

Peltier, James W; Pointer, Lucille; Schibrowsky, John A

2008-01-01

Employee satisfaction and retention are critical issues that influence the success of any organization. Yet, one of the most critical problems facing the worldwide health care industry is the shortage of qualified nurses. Recent calls have been made within the traditional nursing literature for research that utilizes marketing and business models to better understand nurse satisfaction and retention. The purpose of this study is to develop scales that can be used to empirically test a model of the proposed antecedents of nurse job satisfaction and loyalty which have been used widely in the internal marketing and the relationship-marketing literature. Specifically, the study will investigate the degree to which structural bonding, social bonding, financial bonding activities, and quality of care impact how well nurses are satisfied with their job and their commitment to the organization. The results show that quality of care most impacted nurse satisfaction and loyalty, followed by structural, social, and financial bonds.

Multiscale multifractal time irreversibility analysis of stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Chenguang; Shang, Pengjian; Shi, Wenbin

2016-11-01

Time irreversibility is one of the most important properties of nonstationary time series. Complex time series often demonstrate even multiscale time irreversibility, such that not only the original but also coarse-grained time series are asymmetric over a wide range of scales. We study the multiscale time irreversibility of time series. In this paper, we develop a method called multiscale multifractal time irreversibility analysis (MMRA), which allows us to extend the description of time irreversibility to include the dependence on the segment size and statistical moments. We test the effectiveness of MMRA in detecting multifractality and time irreversibility of time series generated from delayed Henon map and binomial multifractal model. Then we employ our method to the time irreversibility analysis of stock markets in different regions. We find that the emerging market has higher multifractality degree and time irreversibility compared with developed markets. In this sense, the MMRA method may provide new angles in assessing the evolution stage of stock markets.

Crowdsourcing 101: a few basics to make you the leader of the pack.

PubMed

Parvanta, Claudia; Roth, Yannig; Keller, Heidi

2013-03-01

Crowdsourcing is a problem-solving approach that taps the knowledge, energy, and creativity of a global, online community. Like marketing, crowdsourcing originated and continues to evolve in the private sector. Health communicators and social marketers can use crowdsourcing across the research-development-dissemination process. This article provides an overview of crowdsourcing and how it can be used to speed up and enhance social marketing and health communication. Nielsen's 1/9/90% model is presented as a guide for engaging appropriate crowds for tasks throughout the development process. The four Fs that motivate online contributors--Fun, Feeling good (fulfillment), Fame, and Fortune--are also presented as ways of incentivizing crowd engagement and matching the incentive to the task at hand. Crowdsourcing resources, such as curating agencies, websites, and crowd labor markets, can be tremendous force multipliers. If done strategically, crowdsourcing has the promise of giving well-researched and creative social marketing results for less money and in less time than traditional methods.

Social marketing and public health intervention.

PubMed

Lefebvre, R C; Flora, J A

1988-01-01

The rapid proliferation of community-based health education programs has out-paced the knowledge base of behavior change strategies that are appropriate and effective for public health interventions. However, experiences from a variety of large-scale studies suggest that principles and techniques of social marketing may help bridge this gap. This article discusses eight essential aspects of the social marketing process: the use of a consumer orientation to develop and market intervention techniques, exchange theory as a model from which to conceptualize service delivery and program participation, audience analysis and segmentation strategies, the use of formative research in program design and pretesting of intervention materials, channel analysis for devising distribution systems and promotional campaigns, employment of the "marketing mix" concept in intervention planning and implementation, development of a process tracking system, and a management process of problem analysis, planning, implementation, feedback and control functions. Attention to such variables could result in more cost-effective programs that reach larger numbers of the target audience.

Competitive assessment of aerospace systems using system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfaender, Jens Holger

Aircraft design has recently experienced a trend away from performance centric design towards a more balanced approach with increased emphasis on engineering an economically successful system. This approach focuses on bringing forward a comprehensive economic and life-cycle cost analysis. Since the success of any system also depends on many external factors outside of the control of the designer, this traditionally has been modeled as noise affecting the uncertainty of the design. However, this approach is currently lacking a strategic treatment of necessary early decisions affecting the probability of success of a given concept in a dynamic environment. This suggests that the introduction of a dynamic method into a life-cycle cost analysis should allow the analysis of the future attractiveness of such a concept in the presence of uncertainty. One way of addressing this is through the use of a competitive market model. However, existing market models do not focus on the dynamics of the market. Instead, they focus on modeling and predicting market share through logit regression models. The resulting models exhibit relatively poor predictive capabilities. The method proposed here focuses on a top-down approach that integrates a competitive model based on work in the field of system dynamics into the aircraft design process. Demonstrating such integration is one of the primary contributions of this work, which previously has not been demonstrated. This integration is achieved through the use of surrogate models, in this case neural networks. This enabled not only the practical integration of analysis techniques, but also reduced the computational requirements so that interactive exploration as envisioned was actually possible. The example demonstration of this integration is built on the competition in the 250 seat large commercial aircraft market exemplified by the Boeing 767-400ER and the Airbus A330-200. Both aircraft models were calibrated to existing performance and certification data and then integrated into the system dynamics market model. The market model was then calibrated with historical market data. This calibration showed a much improved predictive capability as compared to the conventional logit regression models. An additional advantage of this dynamic model is that to realize this improved capability, no additional explanatory variables were required. Furthermore, the resulting market model was then integrated into a prediction profiler environment with a time variant Monte-Carlo analysis resulting in a unique trade-off environment. This environment was shown to allow interactive trade-off between aircraft design decisions and economic considerations while allowing the exploration potential market success in the light of varying external market conditions and scenarios. The resulting method is capable of reduced decision support uncertainty and identification of robust design decisions in future scenarios with a high likelihood of occurrence with special focus on the path dependent nature of future implications of decisions. Furthermore, it was possible to demonstrate the increased importance of design and technology choices on the competitiveness in scenarios with drastic increases in commodity prices during the time period modeled. Another use of the existing outputs of the Monte-Carlo analysis was then realized by showing them on a multivariate scatter plot. This plot was then shown to enable by appropriate grouping of variables to enable the top down definition of an aircraft design, also known as inverse design. In other words this enables the designer to define strategic market and return on investment goals for a number of scenarios, for example the development of fuel prices, and then directly see which specific aircraft designs meet these goals.

Analysis of Market Opportunities for Chinese Private Express Delivery Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Changbing; Bai, Lijun; Tong, Xiaoqing

China's express delivery market has become the arena in which each express enterprise struggles to chase due to the huge potential demand and high profitable prospects. So certain qualitative and quantitative forecast for the future changes of China's express delivery market will help enterprises understand various types of market conditions and social changes in demand and adjust business activities to enhance their competitiveness timely. The development of China's express delivery industry is first introduced in this chapter. Then the theoretical basis of the regression model is overviewed. We also predict the demand trends of China's express delivery market by using Pearson correlation analysis and regression analysis from qualitative and quantitative aspects, respectively. Finally, we draw some conclusions and recommendations for China's express delivery industry.

SOI technology for power management in automotive and industrial applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stork, Johannes M. C.; Hosey, George P.

2017-02-01

Semiconductor on Insulator (SOI) technology offers an assortment of opportunities for chip manufacturers in the Power Management market. Recent advances in the automotive and industrial markets, along with emerging features, the increasing use of sensors, and the ever-expanding "Internet of Things" (IoT) are providing for continued growth in these markets while also driving more complex solutions. The potential benefits of SOI include the ability to place both high-voltage and low-voltage devices on a single chip, saving space and cost, simplifying designs and models, and improving performance, thereby cutting development costs and improving time to market. SOI also offers novel new approaches to long-standing technologies.

Heterogeneity and Self-Organization of Complex Systems Through an Application to Financial Market with Multiagent Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, Iris; Cotsaftis, Michel; Bertelle, Cyrille

2017-12-01

Multiagent systems (MAS) provide a useful tool for exploring the complex dynamics and behavior of financial markets and now MAS approach has been widely implemented and documented in the empirical literature. This paper introduces the implementation of an innovative multi-scale mathematical model for a computational agent-based financial market. The paper develops a method to quantify the degree of self-organization which emerges in the system and shows that the capacity of self-organization is maximized when the agent behaviors are heterogeneous. Numerical results are presented and analyzed, showing how the global market behavior emerges from specific individual behavior interactions.

Health marketing and behavioral change: a review of the literature.

PubMed

Chichirez, Cristina-Mihaela; Purcărea, Victor Lorin

2018-01-01

Health marketing as a part of social marketing, must influence individuals, voluntarily, through various social programmes, in order to accept, reject, modify or abandon a behavior in favour of a healthier lifestyle. Acting on individual behavior change, social marketing can influence the behaviour of those who decide public policies, with positive effects in social change. In time, in order to understand and predict a behavior, a number of theories, models and tactics were developed with the aim to identify factors and mechanisms with the greatest impact in the changing process. Cognitive- social theories proved to be more effective, because they offer guidelines for conducting research in behavioral change.

Dynamic Interaction between Cap & Trade and Electricity Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeev, Kumar

Greenhouse Gases (GHG), such as Carbon-Dioxide (CO2), which is released in the atmosphere due to anthropogenic activities like power production, are now accepted as the main culprits for global warming. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), an initiative of the North East and Mid-Atlantic States of the United States (US) for limiting the emission of GHG, has developed a regional cap-and-trade program for CO2 emissions for power plants. Existing cap-and-trade programs in US and Europe for Greenhouse Gases have recently been plagued by over-allocation. Carbon prices recently collapsed in all these markets during the global recession. Since then, there have been significant policy changes, which have resulted in the adoption of aggressive emission cap targets by most major carbon emission markets. This is expected to make carbon emissions availability more restrictive, raising the prices of these credits. These emissions markets are expected to have a major impact on the wholesale electricity markets. Two models to study the interaction of these two markets are presented. These models assess the impact of the emissions market on wholesale electricity prices. The first model characterizes the competition between two types of power plants (coal and gas) in both the electricity and emissions markets as a dynamic game using the Cournot approximation. Under this approximation, we find that in the Nash equilibrium the plants increase their permit allocation to high-demand periods and the marginal value of each credit for a plant is identical in all periods under their optimal equilibrium strategy. The second numerical model allows us to explicitly evaluate the closed loop equilibrium of the dynamic interaction of two competitors in these markets. We find that plants often try to corner the market and push prices all the way to the price cap. Power plants derive most of their profits from these extreme price regimes. In the experiments where trading is allowed, plants can collude to keep prices at the price cap. These problems can be averted by careful allocation of credits and strong regulation to deter market manipulation.

A social marketing model for disseminating research-based treatments to addictions treatment providers.

PubMed

Martin, G W; Herie, M A; Turner, B J; Cunningham, J A

1998-11-01

Researchers must develop effective strategies for disseminating research-based treatments. This study evaluates the application of a dissemination model based on principles of social marketing and diffusion theory. A case study describes how the model was implemented. A qualitative design was employed to examine rates of adoption and adaptation of an early intervention program by a targeted system of addictions agencies. The interventions were developed at the Addiction Research Foundation in Toronto and disseminated to Assessment and Referral (A/R) Centres in Ontario, Canada. Study participants included the managers and a designated therapist for 33 participating A/R centres. Managers were asked mainly open-ended questions concerning whether their agency had made a formal decision to adopt the intervention and whether therapists in their agency were using the early intervention program. "Adoption" was operationalized as offering the complete four-session intervention to at least one client. At 12 months after the completion of training workshops, 68% of 34 agencies in the target system had adopted the program while 85% of the agencies were using some components of the intervention with clients. The dissemination model appeared to be effective although its application proved to be time-consuming and labour-intensive. The "market analysis", systems focus and field-test components of the model appeared to contribute to its success.

Hospital management principles applicable to the veterinary teaching hospital.

PubMed

Harris, Donna L; Lloyd, James W; Marrinan, Mike

2004-01-01

The Skills, Knowledge, Aptitude, and Attitude (SKA) Subcommittee of the National Commission on Veterinary Economic Issues (NCVEI) has identified the need for veterinary teaching hospitals (VTH) to be at the forefront of progressive business management to serve as a model for both students and practitioners to emulate. To provide a foundation for developing a model, this study reviewed pertinent literature applicable to the management of a VTH. Much of the literature relevant to VTH management relates to work completed for the human side of medicine (academic health centers, or AHCs) or to the private sector. This review explores management practices in strategic planning, financial management, human resource management, marketing, pricing, operations, and legal issues. It is concluded that strategic management is important to provide the foundation for success in the VTH. In addition, periodic financial reports are recommended, as are the development and use of benchmarks for financial management. Establishing positive, motivating human resource practices is also suggested, along with development of a marketing plan based on a clear understanding of VTH core competencies and the market's specific needs.

Environmental economics reality check: a case study of the Abanico Medicinal Plant and Organic Agriculture Microenterprise Project.

PubMed

Isla, Ana; Thompson, Shirley

2003-01-01

This paper presents a case study of the Abanico Medicinal Plant and Organic Agriculture Microenterprise Project in the Arenal Conservation Area, Costa Rica. Microenterprise is the Sustainable Development and the Women in Development model for gender equity and environment of the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and large non-government organizations, like the World Wildlife Fund-Canada. The authors of this paper argue that debt-for-nature investment in microenterprise and ecological economic models are not distinct from neoclassical economic and development models that created the environmental, social and cultural crises in the first place. This case study shows that the world market accommodates only one model of development: unsustainable export-oriented production based on flexible labour markets, low wages, indebtedness and low cost production. Working standards in those micro-enterprises are eroded due to many factors,including indebtedness. What happened at a national level in non-industrial countries with the international debt crisis is now mirrored in individual indebtedness through microenterprise. Is current development policy creating a new form of indentured servitude? Medicinal plants, prior to commodification, were a source of women's power and upon commodification in international development projects, are the source of their exploitation.

HOMER® Micropower Optimization Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lilienthal, P.

2005-01-01

NREL has developed the HOMER micropower optimization model. The model can analyze all of the available small power technologies individually and in hybrid configurations to identify least-cost solutions to energy requirements. This capability is valuable to a diverse set of energy professionals and applications. NREL has actively supported its growing user base and developed training programs around the model. These activities are helping to grow the global market for solar technologies.

Spatial analysis of private tanker water markets in Jordan: Using a hydroeconomic multi-agent model to simulate non-observed water transfers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim; Gawel, Erik; Sigel, Katja; Klauer, Bernd; Talozi, Samer; Lachaut, Thibaut; Selby, Philip; Knox, Stephen; Gorelick, Steven; Tilmant, Amaury; Harou, Julien; Mustafa, Daanish; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Rajsekhar, Deepthi; Avisse, Nicolas; Zhang, Hua

2017-04-01

The country of Jordan is characterized by severe water scarcity and deficient public water supply networks. To address these issues, Jordan's water sector authorities have adopted a water rationing scheme implemented by interrupting piped water supply for several days per week. As in many arid countries around the world, this has led to the emergence of private markets of small-scale providers, delivering water via tanker trucks. On the one hand, these markets play a crucial role in meeting residential and commercial water demands by balancing the shortcomings of the public supply system. On the other hand, providers partially rely on illegal abstractions from rural ground and surface water sources, thereby circumventing regulatory efforts to conserve these resources. Private tanker water markets, therefore, provide a substantial contribution to consumer welfare while jeopardizing freshwater resource sustainability. Thus, a better understanding of these markets is of great importance for the formulation of policy interventions pursuing freshwater sustainability in a socially acceptable manner. Direct assessments of the size of these markets or their responses to policy interventions are, however, impeded by their partially illegal nature and the resulting lack of available information. To overcome this data collection challenge, we use a hydroeconomic multi-agent model developed in the Jordan Water Project to indirectly simulate country-wide tanker water market activities on the basis of demand and supply estimates. The demand for tanker water is conceptualized as a residual demand, remaining after a water user has depleted all available cheap and qualitatively reliable piped water. It is derived from residential and commercial demand functions on the basis of survey data. Tanker water supply is determined by farm simulation models calculating the groundwater pumping cost and the agricultural opportunity cost of tanker water. Finally, a spatial market algorithm matches rural supplies with users' demands across the 89 subdistricts of Jordan. This algorithm is parameterized with survey data we collected on tanker operators' transport costs and profit expectations. The model is successfully validated with available data on tanker truck registrations and tanker water prices. Model results reveal the spatial distribution of the private tanker markets' freshwater extractions, sales quantities, and economic impacts on different water user groups across all of Jordan. The results confirm the quantitative importance of these markets for consumer welfare. A dynamic coupling of farm agents with a country-wide groundwater model allows us to capture feedbacks between tanker water markets and groundwater levels. This enables us to assess policy impacts over time. Model analyses show that policies aiming to mitigate the negative sustainability impacts of private tanker water markets need to simultaneously address the shortcomings of the piped water supply system in order to avoid undue burdens on water users.

Business Model Innovation: A Blueprint for Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flanagan, Christine

2012-01-01

Business model innovation is one of the most challenging components of 21st-century leadership. Making incremental improvements to a business model--creating new efficiencies, expanding into adjacent markets--is hard enough. Developing and experimenting with new business models that truly transform how an institution delivers value (while…

Food policy in the Canadian North: Is there a role for country food markets?

PubMed

Ford, James D; Macdonald, Joanna Petrasek; Huet, Catherine; Statham, Sara; MacRury, Allison

2016-03-01

Food insecurity is widely reported to be at a crisis level in the Inuit territory of Nunavut, Canada. Various policies, programs, and initiatives have been proposed to tackle the problem, with increasing interest in developing a system of country food markets (CFMs) similar to Greenland. We examine if CFMs offer a feasible, sustainable, and effective model for strengthening food systems in Nunavut, examining the model of Greenland and drawing on semi-structured interviews with key informants (n = 45). The Greenland experience indicates that CFMs can provide access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food on a regular basis, and can diversify locally available foods. These benefits are transferable to Nunavut, although knowledge gaps, regulatory and institutional conditions, and concerns over how CFMs might affect the cultural basis of food systems, underlies apprehension over their development in the territory. We conclude that Nunavut is not currently in the position to develop CFMs, but the role of such markets in potentially strengthening food systems should not be discounted. Future development would need to solicit community input on CFMs, resolve regulatory issues around wildlife management and harvesting, and study how future risks would affect sustainability and effectiveness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A mini-review on econophysics: Comparative study of Chinese and western financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Bo; Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Ni, Peng-Yun

2014-07-01

We present a review of our recent research in econophysics, and focus on the comparative study of Chinese and western financial markets. By virtue of concepts and methods in statistical physics, we investigate the time correlations and spatial structure of financial markets based on empirical high-frequency data. We discover that the Chinese stock market shares common basic properties with the western stock markets, such as the fat-tail probability distribution of price returns, the long-range auto-correlation of volatilities, and the persistence probability of volatilities, while it exhibits very different higher-order time correlations of price returns and volatilities, spatial correlations of individual stock prices, and large-fluctuation dynamic behaviors. Furthermore, multi-agent-based models are developed to simulate the microscopic interaction and dynamic evolution of the stock markets.

Are stock market returns related to the weather effects? Empirical evidence from Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Tsangyao; Nieh, Chien-Chung; Yang, Ming Jing; Yang, Tse-Yu

2006-05-01

In this study, we employ a recently developed econometric technique of the threshold model with the GJR-GARCH process on error terms to investigate the relationships between weather factors and stock market returns in Taiwan using daily data for the period of 1 July 1997-22 October 2003. The major weather factors studied include temperature, humidity, and cloud cover. Our empirical evidence shows that temperature and cloud cover are two important weather factors that affect the stock returns in Taiwan. Our empirical findings further support the previous arguments that advocate the inclusion of economically neutral behavioral variables in asset pricing models. These results also have significant implications for individual investors and financial institutions planning to invest in the Taiwan stock market.

Barriers to rural households' participation in low-skilled off-farm labor markets: theory and empirical results from northern Ethiopia.

PubMed

Bhatta, Bharat P; Arethun, Torbjørn

2013-12-01

Promotion of low-skilled off-farm rural labor market participation can be an important strategy to improve livelihoods and food security of the poor in developing countries. This paper investigates rural farm households' participation in low-skilled off-farm labor markets with disaggregate data from a survey of 400 households in Tigray, the northern highlands of Ethiopia. Adopting Heckman's two stage approach, we examined households' decisions to participate or not in markets by probit model in the first stage and level of participation by ordinary least squares procedures in the second stage. The results show that households' decision to enter into a labor market significantly depends on the characteristics of the households such as sex, age of the household heads and labor endowments in the households. Similarly, the level of participation in labor markets measured by the amount of off-farm wage income depends on labor endowments in the households and the place where the households are located. Since cash constrained rural households do not find themselves advantageous to participate in off-farm labor markets, the reduction of cash constraint is the major policy implication of the paper. This holds true in general for all cash constrained rural households in developing countries. Similarly, the empirical results in the paper suggest removal of locational barriers to access labor markets. This helps them to earn off-farm income. It is necessary to eliminate (or at least reduce) obstacles for rural households to enter into a market of off-farm wage earning activities. This holds true in general for all rural households in developing countries. This paper is therefore expected to contribute to frame appropriate policy that promotes participation in low-skilled off-farm rural labor markets in developing countries where many rural households are not only poor but also low-skilled.

Environmental and Energy Aspects of Construction Industry and Green Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauskale, L.; Geipele, I.; Zeltins, N.; Lecis, I.

2017-04-01

Green building is an important component of sustainable real estate market development, and one of the reasons is that the construction industry consumes a high amount of resources. Energy consumption of construction industry results in greenhouse gas emissions, so green buildings, energy systems, building technologies and other aspects play an important role in sustainable development of real estate market, construction and environmental development. The aim of the research is to analyse environmental aspects of sustainable real estate market development, focusing on importance of green buildings at the industry level and related energy aspects. Literature review, historical, statistical data analysis and logical access methods have been used in the research. The conducted research resulted in high environmental rationale and importance of environment-friendly buildings, and there are many green building benefits during the building life cycle. Future research direction is environmental information process and its models.

North American pulp & paper model (NAPAP)

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince; Joseph Buongiorno

2007-01-01

This chapter describes the development and structure of the NAPAP model and compares it to other forest sector models. The NAPAP model was based on PELPS and adapted to describe paper and paperboard product demand, pulpwood and recovered paper supply, and production capacity and technology, with spatially dynamic market equilibria. We describe how the model predicts...

Bachelor Graduates on the Labour Market. A Cross-National Comparison of the Employers' Viewpoint

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alesi, Bettina

2007-01-01

One of the most vehemently discussed questions in the process of restructuring traditional long study programmes according to the Bachelor/Master model is how to develop first cycle curricula and degrees which are a meaningful preparation for a following Master programme as well as for the labour market--as stressed in the Bologna Declaration. It…

Class Size and Sorting in Market Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence. NBER Working Paper No. 13303

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Urquiola, Miguel; Verhoogen, Eric

2007-01-01

This paper examines how schools choose class size and how households sort in response to those choices. Focusing on the highly liberalized Chilean education market, we develop a model in which schools are heterogeneous in an underlying productivity parameter, class size is a component of school quality, households are heterogeneous in income and…

Using Stakeholder Marketing and Social Responsibility for New Product Development in Higher Education: A Business Spanish Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huempfner, Lisa; Kopf, Dennis A.

2017-01-01

Higher education administrators are often faced with difficult choices in allocating limited resources for the creation of new programs. The purpose of this article is to explore the suitability of a new product, an integrated business Spanish major, by applying stakeholder marketing. In so doing, it provides a framework for the application of…

Cloud Computing Value Chains: Understanding Businesses and Value Creation in the Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, Ashraf Bany; Altmann, Jörn; Hwang, Junseok

Based on the promising developments in Cloud Computing technologies in recent years, commercial computing resource services (e.g. Amazon EC2) or software-as-a-service offerings (e.g. Salesforce. com) came into existence. However, the relatively weak business exploitation, participation, and adoption of other Cloud Computing services remain the main challenges. The vague value structures seem to be hindering business adoption and the creation of sustainable business models around its technology. Using an extensive analyze of existing Cloud business models, Cloud services, stakeholder relations, market configurations and value structures, this Chapter develops a reference model for value chains in the Cloud. Although this model is theoretically based on porter's value chain theory, the proposed Cloud value chain model is upgraded to fit the diversity of business service scenarios in the Cloud computing markets. Using this model, different service scenarios are explained. Our findings suggest new services, business opportunities, and policy practices for realizing more adoption and value creation paths in the Cloud.

Empirical and theoretical analysis of complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guannan

This thesis is an interdisciplinary work under the heading of complexity science which focuses on an arguably common "hard" problem across physics, finance and biology [1], to quantify and mimic the macroscopic "emergent phenomenon" in large-scale systems consisting of many interacting "particles" governed by microscopic rules. In contrast to traditional statistical physics, we are interested in systems whose dynamics are subject to feedback, evolution, adaption, openness, etc. Global financial markets, like the stock market and currency market, are ideal candidate systems for such a complexity study: there exists a vast amount of accurate data, which is the aggregate output of many autonomous agents continuously competing with each other. We started by examining the ultrafast "mini flash crash (MFC)" events in the US stock market. An abrupt system-wide composition transition from a mixed human machine phase to a new all-machine phase is uncovered, and a novel theory developed to explain this observation. Then in the study of FX market, we found an unexpected variation in the synchronicity of price changes in different market subsections as a function of the overall trading activity. Several survival models have been tested in analyzing the distribution of waiting times to the next price change. In the region of long waiting-times, the distribution for each currency pair exhibits a power law with exponent in the vicinity of 3.5. By contrast, for short waiting times only, the market activity can be mimicked by the fluctuations emerging from a finite resource competition model containing multiple agents with limited rationality (so called El Farol Model). Switching to the biomedical domain, we present a minimal mathematical model built around a co-evolving resource network and cell population, yielding good agreement with primary tumors in mice experiment and with clinical metastasis data. In the quest to understand contagion phenomena in systems where social group structures evolve on a similar timescale to individual level transmission, we investigated the process of transmission through a model population comprising of social groups which follow simple dynamical rules for growth and break-up, and the profiles produced bear a striking resemblance to empirical data obtained from social, financial and biological systems. Finally, for better implementation of a widely accepted power law test algorithm, we have developed a fast testing procedure using parallel computation.

Thinking Like a Whole Building: Whole Foods Market New Construction Summary, U.S. Department of Energy's Commercial Building Partnerships (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2011-04-01

Whole Foods Market participates in the U.S. Department of Energy's Commercial Building Partnerships (CBP) to identify and develop cost-effective, readily deployed, replicable energy efficiency measures (EEMs) for commercial buildings. Whole Foods Market is working with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on a retrofit and a new construction CBP project. Whole Foods Market's CBP new construction project is a standalone store in Raleigh, North Carolina. Whole Foods Market examined the energy systems and the interactions between those systems in the design for the new Raleigh store. Based on this collaboration and preliminary energy modeling, Whole Foods Market and NREL identifiedmore » a number of cost-effective EEMs that can be readily deployed in other Whole Foods Market stores and in other U.S. supermarkets. If the actual savings in the Raleigh store - which NREL will monitor and verify - match the modeling results, each year this store will save nearly $100,000 in operating costs (Raleigh's rates are about $0.06/kWh for electricity and $0.83/therm for natural gas). The store will also use 41% less energy than a Standard 90.1-compliant store and avoid about 3.7 million pounds of carbon dioxide emissions.« less

Thinking Like a Whole Building: A Whole Foods Market New Construction Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deru, M.; Bonnema, E.; Doebber, I.

2011-04-01

Whole Foods Market participates in the U.S. Department of Energy's Commercial Building Partnerships (CBP) to identify and develop cost-effective, readily deployed, replicable energy efficiency measures (EEMs) for commercial buildings. Whole Foods Market is working with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on a retrofit and a new construction CBP project. Whole Foods Market's CBP new construction project is a standalone store in Raleigh, North Carolina. Whole Foods Market examined the energy systems and the interactions between those systems in the design for the new Raleigh store. Based on this collaboration and preliminary energy modeling, Whole Foods Market and NREL identifiedmore » a number of cost-effective EEMs that can be readily deployed in other Whole Foods Market stores and in other U.S. supermarkets. If the actual savings in the Raleigh store - which NREL will monitor and verify - match the modeling results, each year this store will save nearly $100,000 in operating costs (Raleigh's rates are about $0.06/kWh for electricity and $0.83/therm for natural gas). The store will also use 41% less energy than a Standard 90.1-compliant store and avoid about 3.7 million pounds of carbon dioxide emissions.« less

Pharmaceutical Product Lead Optimization for Better In vivo Bioequivalence Performance: A case study of Diclofenac Sodium Extended Release Matrix Tablets.

PubMed

Shahiwala, Aliasgar; Zarar, Aisha

2018-01-01

In order to prove the validity of a new formulation, a considerable amount of effort is required to study bioequivalence, which not only increases the burden of carrying out a number of bioequivalence studies but also eventually increases the cost of the optimization process. The aim of the present study was to develop sustained release matrix tablets containing diclofenac sodium using natural polymers and to demonstrate step by step process of product development till the prediction of in vivo marketed product equivalence of the developed product. Different batches of tablets were prepared by direct compression. In vitro drug release studies were performed as per USP. The drug release data were assessed using model-dependent, modelindependent and convolution approaches. Drug release profiles showed that extended release action were in the following order: Gum Tragacanth > Sodium Alginate > Gum Acacia. Amongst the different batches prepared, only F1 and F8 passed the USP criteria of drug release. Developed formulas were found to fit Higuchi kinetics model with Fickian (case I) diffusion-mediated release mechanism. Model- independent kinetics confirmed that total of four batches were passed depending on the similarity factors based on the comparison with the marketed Diclofenac. The results of in vivo predictive convolution model indicated that predicted AUC, Cmax and Tmax values for batch F8 were similar to that of marketed product. This study provides simple yet effective outline of pharmaceutical product development process that will minimize the formulation development trials and maximize the product success in bioequivalence studies. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Harm promotion: observations on the symbiosis between government and private industries in Australasia for the development of highly accessible gambling markets.

PubMed

Livingstone, Charles; Adams, Peter J

2011-01-01

To illustrate ways in which industry control over the gambling market and its regulatory system have enabled rapid proliferation in gambling consumption and harm. To discuss the relationship between government regulation and the accessibility, marketing and technologies of electronic gambling machines in Australia and New Zealand. The regulatory framework for gambling in both countries has encouraged highly accessible,regressively distributed and heavily marketed high-impact electronic gambling machines. This framework has developed in large part through the conjunction of government revenue needs and the adaptation of a folk model of gambling appropriated by gambling businesses and engineered to incorporate a discourse that legitimate their gambling businesses. Governments should be encouraged to invest in 'upstream' public health strategies that contain the economic and social drivers for intensifying gambling consumption. One key aspect involves questioning the most suitable scale, location and marketing of gambling operations, and the reliance of government on gambling revenues (whether directly or as substitution for other government expenditure). Technological solutions to disrupt the development of obsessive gambling habits are also available and are likely to reduce gambling-related harm.

USAID-NREL Partnership | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Developing a transparent, market-based energy sector improves competitiveness development objectives. The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) tool is an economic model that helps users analyze gross economic impacts of renewable energy projects (such as wind, solar

Strategy-aligned fuzzy approach for market segment evaluation and selection: a modular decision support system by dynamic network process (DNP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi Nasrabadi, Ali; Hosseinpour, Mohammad Hossein; Ebrahimnejad, Sadoullah

2013-05-01

In competitive markets, market segmentation is a critical point of business, and it can be used as a generic strategy. In each segment, strategies lead companies to their targets; thus, segment selection and the application of the appropriate strategies over time are very important to achieve successful business. This paper aims to model a strategy-aligned fuzzy approach to market segment evaluation and selection. A modular decision support system (DSS) is developed to select an optimum segment with its appropriate strategies. The suggested DSS has two main modules. The first one is SPACE matrix which indicates the risk of each segment. Also, it determines the long-term strategies. The second module finds the most preferred segment-strategies over time. Dynamic network process is applied to prioritize segment-strategies according to five competitive force factors. There is vagueness in pairwise comparisons, and this vagueness has been modeled using fuzzy concepts. To clarify, an example is illustrated by a case study in Iran's coffee market. The results show that success possibility of segments could be different, and choosing the best ones could help companies to be sure in developing their business. Moreover, changing the priority of strategies over time indicates the importance of long-term planning. This fact has been supported by a case study on strategic priority difference in short- and long-term consideration.

Digital Gaming and Pediatric Obesity: At the Intersection of Science and Social Policy.

PubMed

Staiano, Amanda E; Calvert, Sandra L

2012-03-01

Children and adolescents in developed countries are heavily immersed in digital media, creating an inexpensive, far-reaching marketing opportunity for the food industry and the gaming industry. However, exposure to nonnutritious food and beverage advertisements combined with the use of stationary media create a conflict between entertainment and public health. Using the popular digital gaming platforms advergames (online games that market branded products) and exergames (video games that involves gross motor activity for play) as exemplars, the following article provides an analysis of the negative and positive health impacts of digital gaming as they relate specifically to overweight and obesity outcomes for children and adolescents. Theoretical explanations including the food marketing defense model, persuasion knowledge model, and social cognitive theory are used to explain the influence of gaming on young players' health. Throughout the article, we discuss the role of public policy to encourage the development and use of health-promoting digital games as an innovative, effective tool to combat the pediatric obesity crisis.

Digital Gaming and Pediatric Obesity: At the Intersection of Science and Social Policy

PubMed Central

Staiano, Amanda E.; Calvert, Sandra L.

2012-01-01

Children and adolescents in developed countries are heavily immersed in digital media, creating an inexpensive, far-reaching marketing opportunity for the food industry and the gaming industry. However, exposure to nonnutritious food and beverage advertisements combined with the use of stationary media create a conflict between entertainment and public health. Using the popular digital gaming platforms advergames (online games that market branded products) and exergames (video games that involves gross motor activity for play) as exemplars, the following article provides an analysis of the negative and positive health impacts of digital gaming as they relate specifically to overweight and obesity outcomes for children and adolescents. Theoretical explanations including the food marketing defense model, persuasion knowledge model, and social cognitive theory are used to explain the influence of gaming on young players’ health. Throughout the article, we discuss the role of public policy to encourage the development and use of health-promoting digital games as an innovative, effective tool to combat the pediatric obesity crisis. PMID:22545068

The message development tool: a case for effective operationalization of messaging in social marketing practice.

PubMed

Mattson, Marifran; Basu, Ambar

2010-07-01

That messages are essential, if not the most critical component of any communicative process, seems like an obvious claim. More so when the communication is about health--one of the most vital and elemental of human experiences (Babrow & Mattson, 2003). Any communication campaign that aims to change a target audience's health behaviors needs to centralize messages. Even though messaging strategies are an essential component of social marketing and are a widely used campaign model, health campaigns based on this framework have not always been able to effectively operationalize this key component, leading to cases where initiating and sustaining prescribed health behavior has been difficult (MacStravic, 2000). Based on an examination of the VERB campaign and an Australian breastfeeding promotion campaign, we propose a message development tool within the ambit of the social marketing framework that aims to extend the framework and ensure that the messaging component of the model is contextualized at the core of planning, implementation, and evaluation efforts.

Valuing options in shot noise market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laskin, Nick

2018-07-01

A new exactly solvable option pricing model has been introduced and elaborated. It is assumed that a stock price follows a Geometric shot noise process. An arbitrage-free integro-differential option pricing equation has been obtained and solved. The new Greeks have been analytically calculated. It has been shown that in diffusion approximation the developed option pricing model incorporates the well-known Black-Scholes equation and its solution. The stochastic dynamic origin of the Black-Scholes volatility has been uncovered. To model the observed market stock price patterns consisting of high frequency small magnitude and low frequency large magnitude jumps, the superposition of two Geometric shot noises has been implemented. A new generalized option pricing equation has been obtained and its exact solution was found. Merton's jump-diffusion formula for option price was recovered in diffusion approximation. Despite the non-Gaussian nature of probability distributions involved, the new option pricing model has the same degree of analytical tractability as the Black-Scholes model and the Merton jump-diffusion model. This attractive feature allows one to derive exact formulas to value options and option related instruments in the market with jump-like price patterns.

CITYZER - Services for effective decision making and environmental resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haukka, Harri; Turtiainen, Heikki; Janka, Kauko; Palonen, Henry; Turpeinen, Jani; Viitala, Erkki; Rönkkö, Topi; Laiho, Tiina; Laitinen, Teija; Harri, Ari-Matti; Schmidt, Walter; Nousiainen, Timo; Niemi, Jarkko

2017-04-01

The CITYZER project develops new digital services and products to support decision making processes related to weather and air quality in cities. This includes, e.g., early warnings and forecasts (0-24 h), which allow for avoiding weather-related accidents, mitigate human distress and costs from weather-related damage and bad air quality, and generally improve the resilience and safety of the society. The project takes advantage of the latest scientific know-how and directly exploits the expertise obtained from, e.g., Tekes-funded (MMEA [1], RAVAKE) and EU-funded (HAREN, EDHIT [2]) projects. Central to the project is the Observation Network Manager NM10 [3] developed by Vaisala within the Tekes/MMEA project, on which CITYZER defines and builds new commercial services and connects new sensor networks (e.g., air quality). The target groups of the services and products (e.g., public sector, real estate and energy companies, and distributors) and related business models will be analyzed and developed in collaboration with local players (e.g., India, South America, China) taking advantage of the pre-existing contacts by the Haaga-Helia, Vaisala Ltd and CLIC Innovation. Service models are designed to account for and adapt to the special needs of different areas and customers. The developed services will be scalable (most common platforms) and responsive. CITYZER project partners include Vaisala Ltd (weather observation instrumentation and products), Sasken Ltd (mobile products), Emtele Ltd (Portable IoT ICT Service Operation Center/Environment and remote intelligent cabinet for sensor network-GW and connections), HSY (urban services), Haaga-Helia University of Applied Sciences (service business models including digital services), Finnish Meteorological Institute (implementation of and scientific research on meteorological & air quality products), and the Tampere University of Technology (definition of and scientific research on air quality products), Pegasor Ltd (support for air quality instrumentation and products), INNO-W Ltd (business services support), as well as the CLIC Innovation Ltd as a subcontractor for arranging cooperation with international partners and project information dissemination, as well as composing the consortium agreement and other legal issues. The business impact of this project to existing markets is estimated to be substantial and it will also create totally new markets especially for weather information related services. The existing whole target market size at this point is estimated to be several billion USD and the size of the market is growing steadily. The key CITYZER outcomes are the piloted services and products with envisaged great commercial and export potential. Development of the services will be managed by INNO-W supported by Sasken, Emtele, Pegasor and Vaisala. The user profiling and market assessment, including Asia and South America, will be led by Haaga-Helia supported by INNO-W and Sasken. FMI, Vaisala and Pegasor will use their expertise and current business relations to those foreign markets to speed up and guide the user and market evaluation. Essential potential players are local business school teams in Brazil and India that will be subcontracted to bring in local expertise in the user profiling and market assessment processes. This three year project is scheduled such that, overall, the first two years focus on implementing the technical basis as well as customer and market analyses. Throughout the course of the project a CityzerDemo environment will be developed in the Helsinki metropolitan area, demonstrating the observational and modeling system and services built on them. In addition, the services and business models will be evaluated. Acknowledgements The project has received funding from TEKES, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation. References [1] http://mmea.fi/ [2] http://edhit.eu/ [3] http://www.vaisala.com/en/products/metdatamanagementsystems/Pages/NM10.aspx

The Kyoto protocol and payments for tropical forest: An interdisciplinary method for estimating carbon-offset supply and increasing the feasibility of a carbon market under the CDM

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pfaff, Alexander S.P.; Kerr, Suzi; Hughes, R. Flint; Liu, Shuguang; Sanchez-Azofeifa, G. Arturo; Schimel, David; Tosi, Joseph; Watson, Vicente

2000-01-01

Protecting tropical forests under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) could reduce the cost of emissions limitations set in Kyoto. However, while society must soon decide whether or not to use tropical forest-based offsets, evidence regarding tropical carbon sinks is sparse. This paper presents a general method for constructing an integrated model (based on detailed historical, remote sensing and field data) that can produce land-use and carbon baselines, predict carbon sequestration supply to a carbon-offsets market and also help to evaluate optimal market rules. Creating such integrated models requires close collaboration between social and natural scientists. Our project combines varied disciplinary expertise (in economics, ecology and geography) with local knowledge in order to create high-quality, empirically grounded, integrated models for Costa Rica.

Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristoufek, Ladislav; Vosvrda, Miloslav

2018-01-01

We present a novel approach towards the financial Ising model. Most studies utilize the model to find settings which generate returns closely mimicking the financial stylized facts such as fat tails, volatility clustering and persistence, and others. We tackle the model utility from the other side and look for the combination of parameters which yields return dynamics of the efficient market in the view of the efficient market hypothesis. Working with the Ising model, we are able to present nicely interpretable results as the model is based on only two parameters. Apart from showing the results of our simulation study, we offer a new interpretation of the Ising model parameters via inverse temperature and entropy. We show that in fact market frictions (to a certain level) and herding behavior of the market participants do not go against market efficiency but what is more, they are needed for the markets to be efficient.

PRIORITIZING FUTURE RESEACH ON OFF-LABEL PRESCRIBING: RESULTS OF A QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION

PubMed Central

Walton, Surrey M.; Schumock, Glen T.; Lee, Ky-Van; Alexander, G. Caleb; Meltzer, David; Stafford, Randall S.

2015-01-01

Background Drug use for indications not approved by the Food and Drug Administration exceeds 20% of prescribing. Available compendia indicate that a minority of off-label uses are well supported by evidence. Policy makers, however, lack information to identify where systematic reviews of the evidence or other research would be most valuable. Methods We developed a quantitative model for prioritizing individual drugs for future research on off-label uses. The base model incorporated three key factors, 1) the volume of off-label use with inadequate evidence, 2) safety, and 3) cost and market considerations. Nationally representative prescribing data were used to estimate the number of off-label drug uses by indication from 1/2005 through 6/2007 in the United States, and these indications were then categorized according to the adequacy of scientific support. Black box warnings and safety alerts were used to quantify drug safety. Drug cost, date of market entry, and marketing expenditures were used to quantify cost and market considerations. Each drug was assigned a relative value for each factor, and the factors were then weighted in the final model to produce a priority score. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by varying the weightings and model parameters. Results Drugs that were consistently ranked highly in both our base model and sensitivity analyses included quetiapine, warfarin, escitalopram, risperidone, montelukast, bupropion, sertraline, venlafaxine, celecoxib, lisinopril, duloxetine, trazodone, olanzapine, and epoetin alfa. Conclusion Future research into off-label drug use should focus on drugs used frequently with inadequate supporting evidence, particularly if further concerns are raised by known safety issues, high drug cost, recent market entry, and extensive marketing. Based on quantitative measures of these factors, we have prioritized drugs where targeted research and policy activities have high potential value. PMID:19025425

DNAPrint Genomics, Inc.: better drugs for segmented markets.

PubMed

Frudakis, Tony

2008-02-01

The postgenome era promises more efficient drug-development cycles and medications targeted to compatible populations, resulting in improved outcomes, fewer drug-company failures, less litigation, fewer recalls and a refurbished image of 'pharma' in the mind of the customer. DNAPrint was founded to help precipitate these changes. Since 1999, we have developed and optimized novel methods for assessing patient response proclivities as individuals but also as constituents of populations, and we have introduced a computational platform for modeling drug biology. We expect these tools will allow us to maximize the efficiency of our clinical trials and, more importantly, ensure better postmarket performance parameters. With these tools, we are now carefully engineering select drug-development projects in an attempt to illustrate the viability of a novel drug-development model - one based on the application of intelligence and new technologies for superior drug performance in segmented markets.

Integrating risk minimization planning throughout the clinical development and commercialization lifecycle: an opinion on how drug development could be improved

PubMed Central

Morrato, Elaine H; Smith, Meredith Y

2015-01-01

Pharmaceutical risk minimization programs are now an established requirement in the regulatory landscape. However, pharmaceutical companies have been slow to recognize and embrace the significant potential these programs offer in terms of enhancing trust with health care professionals and patients, and for providing a mechanism for bringing products to the market that might not otherwise have been approved. Pitfalls of the current drug development process include risk minimization programs that are not data driven; missed opportunities to incorporate pragmatic methods and market-based insights, outmoded tools and data sources, lack of rapid evaluative learning to support timely adaption, lack of systematic approaches for patient engagement, and questions on staffing and organizational infrastructure. We propose better integration of risk minimization with clinical drug development and commercialization work streams throughout the product lifecycle. We articulate a vision and propose broad adoption of organizational models for incorporating risk minimization expertise into the drug development process. Three organizational models are discussed and compared: outsource/external vendor, embedded risk management specialist model, and Center of Excellence. PMID:25750537

A behavior model for blood donors and marketing strategies to retain and attract them

PubMed Central

Aldamiz-echevarria, Covadonga; Aguirre-Garcia, Maria Soledad

2014-01-01

Objective analyze and propose a theoretical model that describes blood donor decisions to help staff working in blood banks (nurses and others) in their efforts to capture and retain donors. Methods analysis of several studies on the motivations to give blood in Spain over the last six years, as well as past literature on the topic, the authors' experiences in the last 25 years in over 15 Non Governmental Organizations with different levels of responsibilities, their experiences as blood donors and the informal interviews developed during those 25 years. Results a model is proposed with different internal and external factors that influence blood donation, as well as the different stages of the decision-making process. Conclusion the knowledge of the donation process permits the development of marketing strategies that help to increase donors and donations. PMID:25029059

A behavior model for blood donors and marketing strategies to retain and attract them.

PubMed

Aldamiz-Echevarria, Covadonga; Aguirre-Garcia, Maria Soledad

2014-01-01

analyze and propose a theoretical model that describes blood donor decisions to help staff working in blood banks (nurses and others) in their efforts to capture and retain donors. analysis of several studies on the motivations to give blood in Spain over the last six years, as well as past literature on the topic, the authors' experiences in the last 25 years in over 15 Non Governmental Organizations with different levels of responsibilities, their experiences as blood donors and the informal interviews developed during those 25 years. a model is proposed with different internal and external factors that influence blood donation, as well as the different stages of the decision-making process. the knowledge of the donation process permits the development of marketing strategies that help to increase donors and donations.

Modeling and complexity of stochastic interacting Lévy type financial price dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yiduan; Zheng, Shenzhou; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Jun; Wang, Guochao

2018-06-01

In attempt to reproduce and investigate nonlinear dynamics of security markets, a novel nonlinear random interacting price dynamics, which is considered as a Lévy type process, is developed and investigated by the combination of lattice oriented percolation and Potts dynamics, which concerns with the instinctive random fluctuation and the fluctuation caused by the spread of the investors' trading attitudes, respectively. To better understand the fluctuation complexity properties of the proposed model, the complexity analyses of random logarithmic price return and corresponding volatility series are preformed, including power-law distribution, Lempel-Ziv complexity and fractional sample entropy. In order to verify the rationality of the proposed model, the corresponding studies of actual security market datasets are also implemented for comparison. The empirical results reveal that this financial price model can reproduce some important complexity features of actual security markets to some extent. The complexity of returns decreases with the increase of parameters γ1 and β respectively, furthermore, the volatility series exhibit lower complexity than the return series

Minimizing forced outage risk in generator bidding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Dibyendu

Competition in power markets has exposed the participating companies to physical and financial uncertainties. Generator companies bid to supply power in a day-ahead market. Once their bids are accepted by the ISO they are bound to supply power. A random outage after acceptance of bids forces a generator to buy power from the expensive real-time hourly spot market and sell to the ISO at the set day-ahead market clearing price, incurring losses. A risk management technique is developed to assess this financial risk associated with forced outages of generators and then minimize it. This work presents a risk assessment module which measures the financial risk of generators bidding in an open market for different bidding scenarios. The day-ahead power market auction is modeled using a Unit Commitment algorithm and a combination of Normal and Cauchy distributions generate the real time hourly spot market. Risk profiles are derived and VaRs are calculated at 98 percent confidence level as a measure of financial risk. Risk Profiles and VaRs help the generators to analyze the forced outage risk and different factors affecting it. The VaRs and the estimated total earning for different bidding scenarios are used to develop a risk minimization module. This module will develop a bidding strategy of the generator company such that its estimated total earning is maximized keeping the VaR below a tolerable limit. This general framework of a risk management technique for the generating companies bidding in competitive day-ahead market can also help them in decisions related to building new generators.

34 CFR 403.12 - What are the additional responsibilities of the State board?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... least two) technical committees to advise the State council and the State board on the development of model curricula to address State labor market needs. The technical committees shall develop an inventory of skills that may be used by the State board to define state-of-the-art model curricula. This...

34 CFR 403.12 - What are the additional responsibilities of the State board?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... least two) technical committees to advise the State council and the State board on the development of model curricula to address State labor market needs. The technical committees shall develop an inventory of skills that may be used by the State board to define state-of-the-art model curricula. This...

Business Planning for the Vocational Education and Training in Hong Kong

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, Catherine Y. P.; Chan, S. F.; Chan, K.; Ip, W. C.

2006-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop a thinking model to recommend to the vocational education institutions for planning their educational business in the face of marketization. Design/methodology/approach: The systems approach is adopted for developing the model. It is not only used for the conceptualization of the principles of…

Comparing administered and market-based water allocation systems using an agent-based modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, J.; Cai, X.; Wang, Z.

2009-12-01

It also has been well recognized that market-based systems can have significant advantages over administered systems for water allocation. However there are not many successful water markets around the world yet and administered systems exist commonly in water allocation management practice. This paradox has been under discussion for decades and still calls for attention for both research and practice. This paper explores some insights for the paradox and tries to address why market systems have not been widely implemented for water allocation. Adopting the theory of agent-based system we develop a consistent analytical model to interpret both systems. First we derive some theorems based on the analytical model, with respect to the necessary conditions for economic efficiency of water allocation. Following that the agent-based model is used to illustrate the coherence and difference between administered and market-based systems. The two systems are compared from three aspects: 1) the driving forces acting on the system state, 2) system efficiency, and 3) equity. Regarding economic efficiency, penalty on the violation of water use permits (or rights) under an administered system can lead to system-wide economic efficiency, as well as being acceptable by some agents, which follows the theory of the so-call rational violation. Ideal equity will be realized if penalty equals incentive with an administered system and if transaction costs are zero with a market system. The performances of both agents and the over system are explained with an administered system and market system, respectively. The performances of agents are subject to different mechanisms of interactions between agents under the two systems. The system emergency (i.e., system benefit, equilibrium market price, etc), resulting from the performance at the agent level, reflects the different mechanism of the two systems, the “invisible hand” with the market system and administrative measures (penalty and subsidy) with the administered system. Furthermore, the impact of hydrological uncertainty on the performance of water users under the two systems is analyzed by extending the deterministic model to a stochastic one subject to the uncertainty of water availability. It is found that the system response to hydrologic uncertainty depends on risk management mechanics - sharing risk equally among the agents or by prescribed priorities on some agents. Figure1. Agent formulation and its implications in administered system and market-based system

Determinants of underage college student drinking: implications for four major alcohol reduction strategies.

PubMed

Paek, Hye-Jin; Hove, Thomas

2012-01-01

Guided by the assumptions of the social ecological model and the social marketing approach, this study provides a simultaneous and comprehensive assessment of 4 major alcohol reduction strategies for college campuses: school education programs, social norms campaigns, alcohol counter-marketing, and alcohol control policies. Analysis of nationally representative secondary survey data among 5,472 underage students reveals that alcohol marketing seems to be the most formidable risk factor for underage drinking, followed by perceived drinking norms (injunctive norm) and lax policy enforcement. This analysis suggests that, to make social norms campaigns and alcohol control policies more effective, alcohol reduction strategies should be developed to counter the powerful influence of alcohol marketing and promotions.

Health marketing and behavioral change: a review of the literature

PubMed Central

Chichirez, Cristina-Mihaela; Purcărea, Victor Lorin

2018-01-01

Health marketing as a part of social marketing, must influence individuals, voluntarily, through various social programmes, in order to accept, reject, modify or abandon a behavior in favour of a healthier lifestyle. Acting on individual behavior change, social marketing can influence the behaviour of those who decide public policies, with positive effects in social change. In time, in order to understand and predict a behavior, a number of theories, models and tactics were developed with the aim to identify factors and mechanisms with the greatest impact in the changing process. Cognitive- social theories proved to be more effective, because they offer guidelines for conducting research in behavioral change. PMID:29696059

The Dependent Poisson Race Model and Modeling Dependence in Conjoint Choice Experiments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruan, Shiling; MacEachern, Steven N.; Otter, Thomas; Dean, Angela M.

2008-01-01

Conjoint choice experiments are used widely in marketing to study consumer preferences amongst alternative products. We develop a class of choice models, belonging to the class of Poisson race models, that describe a "random utility" which lends itself to a process-based description of choice. The models incorporate a dependence structure which…

An Examination of a Virtual Private Network Implementation to Support a Teleworking Initiative: The Marcus Food Company Inc. Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferguson, Jason W.

2010-01-01

In this dissertation, the author examined the capabilities of virtual private networks (VPNs) in supporting teleworking environments for small businesses in the food marketing sector. The goal of this research was to develop an implementation model for small businesses in the food marketing sector that use a VPN solution to support teleworker…

Learning Based Bidding Strategy for HVAC Systems in Double Auction Retail Energy Markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Yannan; Somani, Abhishek; Carroll, Thomas E.

In this paper, a bidding strategy is proposed using reinforcement learning for HVAC systems in a double auction market. The bidding strategy does not require a specific model-based representation of behavior, i.e., a functional form to translate indoor house temperatures into bid prices. The results from reinforcement learning based approach are compared with the HVAC bidding approach used in the AEP gridSMART® smart grid demonstration project and it is shown that the model-free (learning based) approach tracks well the results from the model-based behavior. Successful use of model-free approaches to represent device-level economic behavior may help develop similar approaches tomore » represent behavior of more complex devices or groups of diverse devices, such as in a building. Distributed control requires an understanding of decision making processes of intelligent agents so that appropriate mechanisms may be developed to control and coordinate their responses, and model-free approaches to represent behavior will be extremely useful in that quest.« less

Designing a water leasing market for the Mimbres River, New Mexico.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reno-Trujillo, Marissa Devan; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Broadbent, Craig

2013-04-01

The objective of this study is to develop a conceptual framework for establishing water leasing markets in New Mexico using the Mimbres River as a test case. Given the past and growing stress over water in New Mexico and the Mimbres River in particular, this work will develop a mechanism for the short term, efficient, temporary transfer of water from one user to another while avoiding adverse effects on any user not directly involved in the transaction (i.e., third party effects). Toward establishing a water leasing market, five basic tasks were performed, (1) a series of stakeholder meetings were conductedmore » to identify and address concerns and interests of basin residents, (2) several gauges were installed on irrigation ditches to aid in the monitoring and management of water resources in the basin, (3) the hydrologic/market model and decision support interface was extended to include the Middle and Lower reaches of the Mimbres River, (4) experiments were conducted to aid in design of the water leasing market, and (5) a set of rules governing a water leasing market was drafted for future adoption by basin residents and the New Mexico Office of the State Engineer.« less

Energy Markets in the United States: The Influence of Politics, Regulations, and Markets on Energy Development in the Oil and Gas and Wind Industries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maguire, Karen Kay

2011-12-01

My dissertation focuses on the influence of politics, policies, and markets in determining oil and natural gas and wind energy development. In the first chapter, I examine the role of federal elected political influence and market factors in determining the acres of oil and natural gas leases issued on Bureau of Management (BLM) lands in the western United States between 1978 and 2008. I seek to determine if the political party and ideology of the federal political environment influence the number of acres that are leased and if there is disparate federal political influence in states that have a large amount of federal lands. Using a random effects Tobit model for a 17-state sample of the westernmost states in the contiguous United States, I find that more conservative federal political influence leads to additional leasing. The results are consistent across Senate committee leaders, Senate majority leadership, and the President's office. The further found that the influence of politics on leasing is not stronger in states with more federal lands. In the second chapter, I analyze the influence of state and federal political party changes and market factors on state oil and natural gas permitting. My findings, using a first-differenced empirical model for two samples, a 19-state sample, from 1990--2007, and a 14-state sample, from 1977--2007, indicate that the influence of state political party changes are trumped by economic factors. Oil and gas prices are the main drivers of permitting changes, while the state political party changes for the state legislatures and Governor's office are consistently not significant. In the third chapter I focus on the role of electricity markets and renewable energy regulation in wind development across the United States. My findings, using a random effects Tobit model with a 25-state sample, from 1994--2008, indicate that the implementation of state Renewables Portfolio Standards (RPS), the Federal Production Tax Credit (PTC), and Green Power Purchase Programs (GPP) positively influence a state's wind capacity. The influence of green power purchase programs continues to increase in the years after implementation, while for RPS it diminishes. The role of market factors is less significant.

[Social marketers' lack of success in using CSM discipline to harness commercial resources and increase contraceptive prevalence].

PubMed

Davies, J

1984-01-01

Social marketers have certainly shown that the CSM discipline can quickly and cost-effectively harness commercial resources to increase contraceptive prevalence. But why hasn't the social marketing idea caught on in more countries? According to Social Marketing Forum, only a tiny number of countries have active programs after more than a decade of effort. The most likely reason for this lack of success is doubt and fear on the part of both developing countries' officials and donor agencies about allowing marketing enthusiasts--with our very noticeable advertising methods--to join the family planning fight. And what has our answer been? Usually, a head-on retort such as, "But look at all the condoms we've sold]" And that gets us nowhere, because the successful peddling of 1 not-so-impressive method doesn't begin to balance the fears of a possible backlash that brash condom promotions could bring down on official heads. The lesson we should be learning is that social marketers possess to narrow an outlook and promote a small range of products that don't enthuse decisionmakers. Hence, we are often perceived as condom salesmen--and not much more. What should we be doing? We should be selling the idea of using private sector experience to assist national development. That means social development, particularly improved health, family planning and women's education. These 3 activities have proven effective in reducing fertility and would add up to a marketing opportunity--a longterm challenge that should enthuse dicisionmakers, private sector entrepreneurs and donor agencies alike. Further, our model--the commercial sector--is renowned for branching out and secceeding in a broad range of endeavors. As an example, Procter and Gamble uses separate divisions to market different products. Initiatives already exist in many countries to harness the private sector as a development tool. Social marketers should be leading the initiative--and benefitting from it, too. full text

Urban development applications project. Urban technology transfer study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Technology transfer is defined along with reasons for attempting to transfer technology. Topics discussed include theoretical models, stages of the innovation model, communication process model, behavior of industrial organizations, problem identification, technology search and match, establishment of a market mechanism, applications engineering, commercialization, and management of technology transfer.

MUSE--Model for University Strategic Evaluation. AIR 2002 Forum Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kutina, Kenneth L.; Zullig, Craig M.; Starkman, Glenn D.; Tanski, Laura E.

A model for simulating college and university operations, finances, program investments, and market response in terms of applicants, acceptances, and retention has been developed and implemented using the system dynamics approach. The Model for University Strategic Evaluation (MUSE) is a simulation of the total operations of the university,…

Finite element meshing of ANSYS (trademark) solid models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelley, F. S.

1987-01-01

A large scale, general purpose finite element computer program, ANSYS, developed and marketed by Swanson Analysis Systems, Inc. is discussed. ANSYS was perhaps the first commercially available program to offer truly interactive finite element model generation. ANSYS's purpose is for solid modeling. This application is briefly discussed and illustrated.

The Volpe Center's inter-regional auto trip model : a review of methodology, assumptions, and application

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-10-31

The Volpe Center first estimated an inter-regional auto trip model as part of its effort to assess the market feasibility of maglev for the National Maglev Initiative (NMI). The original intent was to develop a direct demand model for estimating inte...

Rethinking exchange market models as optimization algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luquini, Evandro; Omar, Nizam

2018-02-01

The exchange market model has mainly been used to study the inequality problem. Although the human society inequality problem is very important, the exchange market models dynamics until stationary state and its capability of ranking individuals is interesting in itself. This study considers the hypothesis that the exchange market model could be understood as an optimization procedure. We present herein the implications for algorithmic optimization and also the possibility of a new family of exchange market models

Evolving the Land Information System into a Cloud Computing Service

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Houser, Paul R.

The Land Information System (LIS) was developed to use advanced flexible land surface modeling and data assimilation frameworks to integrate extremely large satellite- and ground-based observations with advanced land surface models to produce continuous high-resolution fields of land surface states and fluxes. The resulting fields are extremely useful for drought and flood assessment, agricultural planning, disaster management, weather and climate forecasting, water resources assessment, and the like. We envisioned transforming the LIS modeling system into a scientific cloud computing-aware web and data service that would allow clients to easily setup and configure for use in addressing large water management issues.more » The focus of this Phase 1 project was to determine the scientific, technical, commercial merit and feasibility of the proposed LIS-cloud innovations that are currently barriers to broad LIS applicability. We (a) quantified the barriers to broad LIS utility and commercialization (high performance computing, big data, user interface, and licensing issues); (b) designed the proposed LIS-cloud web service, model-data interface, database services, and user interfaces; (c) constructed a prototype LIS user interface including abstractions for simulation control, visualization, and data interaction, (d) used the prototype to conduct a market analysis and survey to determine potential market size and competition, (e) identified LIS software licensing and copyright limitations and developed solutions, and (f) developed a business plan for development and marketing of the LIS-cloud innovation. While some significant feasibility issues were found in the LIS licensing, overall a high degree of LIS-cloud technical feasibility was found.« less

Refocusing website marketing: physician-patient relationships.

PubMed

Sanchez, Peter M

2002-01-01

Physician websites have become commonplace in the world of health care marketing. Most, if not all of these websites, focus on practice enhancement tactics as a means of increasing office traffic in an increasingly competitive environment. Websites developed in this way fail to tap the interactive potential of website technology and provide little support for the development of physician-patient relationships. In this paper, we extend a model of medical service care so as to refocus attention on the importance of physician-patient relationships and the role websites can play in this process.

Research on the Rural Express Alliance based on ANP improved profit Allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Yufeng; Zhang, Bin

2018-01-01

Online shopping platform in rural distribution difficulties, leading to rural online shopping market and logistics market development is slow. At present, China Post and other private courier companies are not possible to do. So we need to build distribution alliances. Reasonable profit allocation mechanism is the key to the stable development of this distribution alliance. So we proposed the Shapley Value Method and the ANP Improved Model to allocate profits. Finally, the rationality of the method is proved by numerical analysis before and after using the corrected Shapley Value.

The economics of social marketing: the case of mosquito nets in Tanzania.

PubMed

Kikumbih, Nassor; Hanson, Kara; Mills, Anne; Mponda, Hadji; Schellenberg, Joanna Armstrong

2005-01-01

There is a growing appreciation of the role of the private sector in expanding the use of key health interventions. At the policy level, this has raised questions about how public sector resources can best be used to encourage the private sector in order to achieve public health impact. Social marketing has increasingly been used to distribute public health products in developing countries. The Kilombero and Ulanga Insecticide-Treated Net Project (KINET) project used a social marketing approach in two districts of Tanzania to stimulate the development of the market for insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) for malaria control. Using evidence from household surveys, focus group discussions and a costing study in the intervention area and a control area, this paper examines two issues: (1) How does social marketing affect the market for ITNs, where this is described in terms of price and coverage levels; and (2) What does the added cost of social marketing "buy" in terms of coverage and equity, compared with an unassisted commercial sector model? It appears that supply improved in both areas, although there was a greater increase in supply in the intervention area. However, the main impact of social marketing on the market for nets was to shift demand in the intervention district, leading to a higher coverage market outcome. While social marketing was more costly per net distributed than the unassisted commercial sector, higher overall levels of coverage were achieved in the social marketing area together with higher coverage of the lowest socioeconomic group, of pregnant women and children under 5 years, and of those living on the periphery of their villages. These findings are interpreted in the context of Tanzania's national plan for scaling up ITNs.

Fuel, environmental, and transmission pricing considerations in a deregulated environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obessis, Emmanouil Vlassios

The 1992 National Energy Policy Act drastically changed the traditional structure of the vertically integrated utility. To facilitate increased competition in the power utility sector, all markets related to power generation have been opened to free competition and trading. To survive in the new competitive environment, power producers need to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Fuel marketing strategies are thus, getting more aggressive and fuel markets are becoming more competitive, offering more options regarding fuel supplies and contracts. At the same time, the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments are taking effect. Although tightening the emission standards, this legislation offers utilities a wider flexibility in choosing compliance strategies. It also set maximum annual allowable levels replacing the traditional uniform maximum emission rates. The bill also introduced the concept of marketable emission allowances and provided for the establishment of nationwide markets where allowances may be traded, sold, or purchased. Several fuel- and emission-constrained algorithms have been historically presented, but those two classes of constraints, in general, were handled independently. The multiobjective optimization model developed in this research work, concurrently satisfies sets of detailed fuel and emission limits, modeling in a more accurate way the fuel supply and environmental limitations and their complexities in the new deregulated operational environment. Development of the implementation software is an integral part of this research project. This software may be useful for both daily scheduling activities and short-term operational planning. A Lagrangian multipliers-based variant is used to solve the problem. Single line searches are used to update the multipliers, thus offering attractive execution times. This work also investigates the applicability of cooperative games to the problem of transmission cost allocation. Interest in game theory as a powerful tool to solve common property allocation problems has been renewed. A simple allocation framework is developed using capacity based costing rules. Different solution concepts are applied to solve small scale transmission pricing problems. Game models may render themselves useful in investigating "what if" scenarios.

Analysis of the Pricing Process in Electricity Market using Multi-Agent Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimomura, Takahiro; Saisho, Yuichi; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

Many electric utilities world-wide have been forced to change their ways of doing business, from vertically integrated mechanisms to open market systems. We are facing urgent issues about how we design the structures of power market systems. In order to settle down these issues, many studies have been made with market models of various characteristics and regulations. The goal of modeling analysis is to enrich our understanding of fundamental process that may appear. However, there are many kinds of modeling methods. Each has drawback and advantage about validity and versatility. This paper presents two kinds of methods to construct multi-agent market models. One is based on game theory and another is based on reinforcement learning. By comparing the results of the two methods, they can advance in validity and help us figure out potential problems in electricity markets which have oligopolistic generators, demand fluctuation and inelastic demand. Moreover, this model based on reinforcement learning enables us to consider characteristics peculiar to electricity markets which have plant unit characteristics, seasonable and hourly demand fluctuation, real-time regulation market and operating reserve market. This model figures out importance of the share of peak-load-plants and the way of designing operating reserve market.

Competition Between Biosimilars and Patented Biologics: Learning from European and Japanese Experience.

PubMed

Bocquet, François; Loubière, Anaïs; Fusier, Isabelle; Cordonnier, Anne-Laure; Paubel, Pascal

2016-11-01

The expiry of patents for costly biologics is creating new momentum on the pharmaceutical market for biosimilars (copies of off-patent biologics) and paving the way for their development. However, little is known about the competitiveness of biosimilars versus their originators and other biologics belonging to the same therapeutic class. The main goal of this study was to analyse the type of competition generated by the first biosimilars commercialised on key global biologic markets and to grasp their economic model. The secondary goal was to distinguish the main factors likely to influence the uptake of biosimilars on national markets. To be included in this study, countries had to meet three conditions: the regulatory framework for the development of biosimilars closely resembled that in Europe, biosimilars were marketed in 2014, and the value of the biologics market was >US$3 billion. We analysed granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (GCSFs) and erythropoietins (EPOs) over the period 2007-2014 because these are the two main therapeutic classes that have been 'biosimilarised' and thus have many years of experience available. We assessed market sizes, retail/hospital distribution mixes, incentives for using biosimilars and price discounts for originators versus biosimilars. We conducted a linear regression analysis to assess the relationship between uptakes of biosimilars and the market shares of other biologics. The EU-5 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK) and Japanese GCSF and EPO markets are highly-country-specific. Uptake of biosimilars seems to depend on retail/hospital distribution mixes and on medical practice. Depending on the therapeutic class and the market sector (retail or hospital), biosimilars may compete with first-generation or second-generation products or both. Some incentives implemented to encourage the use of biosimilars had mixed results. Overall, discounts for biosimilars versus originators are not factors that determine global uptake of biosimilars. Unlike generics, there appears to be no unique economic model for biosimilars. Moreover, a new phenomenon occurs with biosimilars: sometimes, they are able to take market shares from subsequent generations of biologics.

Labor markets and health: an integrated life course perspective.

PubMed

Amick, Benjamin C; McLeod, Christopher B; Bültmann, Ute

2016-07-01

Current work and health research is fragmented, focusing on jobs, exposures, specific worker groups, work organization, or employment contracts. An emphasis on the labor market in framing the work and health relationship conceptualizes work not only as an exposure that increases or lessens health risk but also as a life course experience that is dependent on place and time. The intention is to illustrate how the labor markets and health framework coupled with a life course perspective extends other epidemiological approaches to work and health to identify new research questions. Taking the changing nature of work and labor markets into account, this paper updates the labor markets and health framework. It then reviews, defines, and integrates key life course concepts. A model is developed that guides the understanding of how labor markets and health trajectories emerge from the consideration of the working life course in a social context. The application leads to new research questions investigating characteristics of labor markets and health trajectories that may lead to positive health outcomes over the life course.

Model Recommended Values of Corporate Culture for Industrial Companies in Slovak Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urbanovičová, Petra; Mikulášková, Justína; Čambál, Miloš

2017-09-01

The main objective of the paper is to describe the recommended values model of corporate culture and supporting business performance for industrial companies operating in the Slovak Republic. This model was developed on the basis of research results within the STU Project to support young researchers entitled "Changing the potential of the companýs success using the principles of spiral management and its impact on corporate culture". The current paper is a part of submitted VEGA project No.1/0348/17 "The impact of the coexistence of different generations of employees on the sustainable performance of organisations". This model will be the basis for defining corporate values and developing or changing corporate culture for the companies operating on or coming (from abroad) to the Slovak market. The characteristic features of the value model are simplicity, complexity and applicability. This model takes into account the current situation on the Slovak market. The values of this model have a different level of significance given and each value is defined by the specified principles.

Analysis and Design of International Emission Trading Markets Applying System Dynamics Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Bo; Pickl, Stefan

2010-11-01

The design and analysis of international emission trading markets is an important actual challenge. Time-discrete models are needed to understand and optimize these procedures. We give an introduction into this scientific area and present actual modeling approaches. Furthermore, we develop a model which is embedded in a holistic problem solution. Measures for energy efficiency are characterized. The economic time-discrete "cap-and-trade" mechanism is influenced by various underlying anticipatory effects. With a systematic dynamic approach the effects can be examined. First numerical results show that fair international emissions trading can only be conducted with the use of protective export duties. Furthermore a comparatively high price which evokes emission reduction inevitably has an inhibiting effect on economic growth according to our model. As it always has been expected it is not without difficulty to find a balance between economic growth and emission reduction. It can be anticipated using our System Dynamics model simulation that substantial changes must be taken place before international emissions trading markets can contribute to global GHG emissions mitigation.

Critical market crashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sornette, D.

2003-04-01

This review presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author have developed over the past seven years. We start by discussing the limitation of standard analyses for characterizing how crashes are special. The study of the frequency distribution of drawdowns, or runs of successive losses shows that large financial crashes are “outliers”: they form a class of their own as can be seen from their statistical signatures. If large financial crashes are “outliers”, they are special and thus require a special explanation, a specific model, a theory of their own. In addition, their special properties may perhaps be used for their prediction. The main mechanisms leading to positive feedbacks, i.e., self-reinforcement, such as imitative behavior and herding between investors are reviewed with many references provided to the relevant literature outside the narrow confine of Physics. Positive feedbacks provide the fuel for the development of speculative bubbles, preparing the instability for a major crash. We demonstrate several detailed mathematical models of speculative bubbles and crashes. A first model posits that the crash hazard drives the market price. The crash hazard may sky-rocket at some times due to the collective behavior of “noise traders”, those who act on little information, even if they think they “know”. A second version inverses the logic and posits that prices drive the crash hazard. Prices may skyrocket at some times again due to the speculative or imitative behavior of investors. According the rational expectation model, this entails automatically a corresponding increase of the probability for a crash. We also review two other models including the competition between imitation and contrarian behavior and between value investors and technical analysts. The most important message is the discovery of robust and universal signatures of the approach to crashes. These precursory patterns have been documented for essentially all crashes on developed as well as emergent stock markets, on currency markets, on company stocks, and so on. We review this discovery at length and demonstrate how to use this insight and the detailed predictions obtained from these models to forecast crashes. For this, we review the major crashes of the past that occurred on the major stock markets of the planet and describe the empirical evidence of the universal nature of the critical log-periodic precursory signature of crashes. The concept of an “anti-bubble” is also summarized, with the Japanese collapse from the beginning of 1991 to present, taken as a prominent example. A prediction issued and advertised in January 1999 has been until recently born out with remarkable precision, predicting correctly several changes of trends, a feat notoriously difficult using standard techniques of economic forecasting. We also summarize a very recent analysis the behavior of the U.S. S&P500 index from 1996 to August 2002 and the forecast for the two following years. We conclude by presenting our view of the organization of financial markets.

Torching the Haystack: modelling fast-fail strategies in drug development.

PubMed

Lendrem, Dennis W; Lendrem, B Clare

2013-04-01

By quickly clearing the development pipeline of failing or marginal products, fast-fail strategies release resources to focus on more promising molecules. The Quick-Kill model of drug development demonstrates that fast-fail strategies will: (1) reduce the expected time to market; (2) reduce expected R&D costs; and (3) increase R&D productivity. This paper outlines the model and demonstrates the impact of fast-fail strategies. The model is illustrated with costs and risks data from pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical companies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agent Based Model of Livestock Movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miron, D. J.; Emelyanova, I. V.; Donald, G. E.; Garner, G. M.

The modelling of livestock movements within Australia is of national importance for the purposes of the management and control of exotic disease spread, infrastructure development and the economic forecasting of livestock markets. In this paper an agent based model for the forecasting of livestock movements is presented. This models livestock movements from farm to farm through a saleyard. The decision of farmers to sell or buy cattle is often complex and involves many factors such as climate forecast, commodity prices, the type of farm enterprise, the number of animals available and associated off-shore effects. In this model the farm agent's intelligence is implemented using a fuzzy decision tree that utilises two of these factors. These two factors are the livestock price fetched at the last sale and the number of stock on the farm. On each iteration of the model farms choose either to buy, sell or abstain from the market thus creating an artificial supply and demand. The buyers and sellers then congregate at the saleyard where livestock are auctioned using a second price sealed bid. The price time series output by the model exhibits properties similar to those found in real livestock markets.

A model of international financial crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaizoji, Taisei

2001-10-01

This paper proposes a model of international financial crises that is based on the statistical mechanics. In our model the international stock market is composed of two groups of traders mutually influencing each other with respect to their decision behavior, and financial contagion between markets occurs as a result of attempts by traders in the domestic market to imitate the behavior of traders who participate into exchange in a foreign market. This provides a channel through which a crisis in one market such as contemporaneous stock market crashes can be transmitted to other markets. We show that the model can explain the stylized facts characterizing periods of recent international financial crises.

An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong

2009-07-01

The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

On the dynamic dependence and asymmetric co-movement between the US and Central and Eastern European transition markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boubaker, Heni; Raza, Syed Ali

2016-10-01

In this paper, we attempt to evaluate the time-varying and asymmetric co-movement of CEE equity markets with the US stock markets around the subprime crisis and the resulting global financial crisis. The econometric approach adopted is based on recent development of time-varying copulas. For that, we propose a new class of time-varying copulas that allows for long memory behavior in both marginal and joint distributions. Our empirical approach relies on the flexibility and usefulness of bivariate copulas that allow to model not only the dynamic co-movement through time but also to account for any extreme interaction, nonlinearity and asymmetry in the co-movement patterns. The time-varying dependence structure can be also modeled conditionally on the economic policy uncertainty index of the crisis country. Empirical results show strong evidence of co-movement between the US and CEE equity markets and find that the co-movement exhibits large time-variations and asymmetry in the tails of the return distributions.

A CBR-Based and MAHP-Based Customer Value Prediction Model for New Product Development

PubMed Central

Zhao, Yu-Jie; Luo, Xin-xing; Deng, Li

2014-01-01

In the fierce market environment, the enterprise which wants to meet customer needs and boost its market profit and share must focus on the new product development. To overcome the limitations of previous research, Chan et al. proposed a dynamic decision support system to predict the customer lifetime value (CLV) for new product development. However, to better meet the customer needs, there are still some deficiencies in their model, so this study proposes a CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for a new product (C&M-CVPM). CBR (case based reasoning) can reduce experts' workload and evaluation time, while MAHP (multiplicative analytic hierarchy process) can use actual but average influencing factor's effectiveness in stimulation, and at same time C&M-CVPM uses dynamic customers' transition probability which is more close to reality. This study not only introduces the realization of CBR and MAHP, but also elaborates C&M-CVPM's three main modules. The application of the proposed model is illustrated and confirmed to be sensible and convincing through a stimulation experiment. PMID:25162050

A CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for new product development.

PubMed

Zhao, Yu-Jie; Luo, Xin-xing; Deng, Li

2014-01-01

In the fierce market environment, the enterprise which wants to meet customer needs and boost its market profit and share must focus on the new product development. To overcome the limitations of previous research, Chan et al. proposed a dynamic decision support system to predict the customer lifetime value (CLV) for new product development. However, to better meet the customer needs, there are still some deficiencies in their model, so this study proposes a CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for a new product (C&M-CVPM). CBR (case based reasoning) can reduce experts' workload and evaluation time, while MAHP (multiplicative analytic hierarchy process) can use actual but average influencing factor's effectiveness in stimulation, and at same time C&M-CVPM uses dynamic customers' transition probability which is more close to reality. This study not only introduces the realization of CBR and MAHP, but also elaborates C&M-CVPM's three main modules. The application of the proposed model is illustrated and confirmed to be sensible and convincing through a stimulation experiment.

Medical Representatives' Intention to Use Information Technology in Pharmaceutical Marketing.

PubMed

Kwak, Eun-Seon; Chang, Hyejung

2016-10-01

Electronic detailing (e-detailing), the use of electronic devices to facilitate sales presentations to physicians, has been adopted and expanded in the pharmaceutical industry. To maximize the potential outcome of e-detailing, it is important to understand medical representatives (MRs)' behavior and attitude to e-detailing. This study investigates how information technology devices such as laptop computers and tablet PCs are utilized in pharmaceutical marketing, and it analyzes the factors influencing MRs' intention to use devices. This study has adopted and modified the theory of Roger's diffusion of innovation model and the technology acceptance model. To test the model empirically, a questionnaire survey was conducted with 221 MRs who were working in three multinational or eleven domestic pharmaceutical companies in Korea. Overall, 28% and 35% of MRs experienced using laptop computers and tablet PCs in pharmaceutical marketing, respectively. However, the rates were different across different groups of MRs, categorized by age, education level, position, and career. The results showed that MRs' intention to use information technology devices was significantly influenced by perceived usefulness in general. Perceived ease of use, organizational and individual innovativeness, and several MR characteristics were also found to have significant impacts. This study provides timely information about e-detailing devices to marketing managers and policy makers in the pharmaceutical industry for successful marketing strategy development by understanding the needs of MRs' intention to use information technology. Further in-depth study should be conducted to understand obstacles and limitations and to improve the strategies for better marketing tools.

Accelerating Drug Development: Antiviral Therapies for Emerging Viruses as a Model.

PubMed

Everts, Maaike; Cihlar, Tomas; Bostwick, J Robert; Whitley, Richard J

2017-01-06

Drug discovery and development is a lengthy and expensive process. Although no one, simple, single solution can significantly accelerate this process, steps can be taken to avoid unnecessary delays. Using the development of antiviral therapies as a model, we describe options for acceleration that cover target selection, assay development and high-throughput screening, hit confirmation, lead identification and development, animal model evaluations, toxicity studies, regulatory issues, and the general drug discovery and development infrastructure. Together, these steps could result in accelerated timelines for bringing antiviral therapies to market so they can treat emerging infections and reduce human suffering.

Outflow dynamics in modeling oligopoly markets: the case of the mobile telecommunications market in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna; Weron, Rafał; Włoszczowska, Maja

2008-11-01

In this paper we introduce two models of opinion dynamics in oligopoly markets and apply them to a situation where a new entrant challenges two incumbents of the same size. The models differ in the way in which the two forces influencing consumer choice—(local) social interactions and (global) advertising—interact. We study the general behavior of the models using the mean field approach and Monte Carlo simulations and calibrate the models using data from the Polish telecommunications market. For one of the models criticality is observed—below a certain critical level of advertising the market approaches a lock-in situation, where one market leader dominates the market and all other brands disappear. Interestingly, for both models the best fits to real data are obtained for conformity level p \\in (0.3,0.4) . This agrees very well with the conformity level found by Solomon Asch in his famous social experiment.

A common mode of origin of power laws in models of market and earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharyya, Pratip; Chatterjee, Arnab; Chakrabarti, Bikas K.

2007-07-01

We show that there is a common mode of origin for the power laws observed in two different models: (i) the Pareto law for the distribution of money among the agents with random-saving propensities in an ideal gas-like market model and (ii) the Gutenberg-Richter law for the distribution of overlaps in a fractal-overlap model for earthquakes. We find that the power laws appear as the asymptotic forms of ever-widening log-normal distributions for the agents’ money and the overlap magnitude, respectively. The identification of the generic origin of the power laws helps in better understanding and in developing generalized views of phenomena in such diverse areas as economics and geophysics.

Using an Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Model to Develop Minimum Cost Water Supply Portfolios and Manage Supply Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Characklis, G. W.; Ramsey, J.

2004-12-01

Water scarcity has become a reality in many areas as a result of population growth, fewer available sources, and reduced tolerance for the environmental impacts of developing the new supplies that do exist. As a result, successfully managing future water supply risk will become more dependent on coordinating the use of existing resources. Toward that end, flexible supply strategies that can rapidly respond to hydrologic variability will provide communities with increasing economic advantages, particularly if the frequency of more extreme events (e.g., drought) increases due to global climate change. Markets for established commodities (e.g., oil, gas) often provide a framework for efficiently responding to changes in supply and demand. Water markets, however, have remained relatively crude, with most transactions involving permanent transfers and long regulatory processes. Recently, interest in the use of flexible short-term transfers (e.g., leases, options) has begun to motivate consideration of more sophisticated strategies for managing supply risk, strategies similar to those used in more mature markets. In this case, communities can benefit from some of the advantages that water enjoys over other commodities, in particular, the ability to accurately characterize the stochastic nature of supply and demand through hydrologic modeling. Hydrologic-economic models are developed for two different water scarce regions supporting active water markets: Edward Aquifer and Lower Rio Grande Valley. These models are used to construct portfolios of water supply transfers (e.g., permanent transfers, options, and spot leases) that minimize the cost of meeting a probabilistic reliability constraint. Real and simulated spot price distributions allow each type of transfer to be priced in a manner consistent with financial theory (e.g., Black-Scholes). Market simulations are integrated with hydrologic models such that variability in supply and demand are linked with price behavior. Decisions on when and how much water to lease (or exercise, in the case of options) are made on the basis of anticipatory rules based on the ratio of expected supply to expected demand, and are used to evaluate the economic consequences of a utilityAƒAøAøâ_sA¬Aøâ_zAøs attitude toward risk. The marginal cost of supply reliability is also explored by varying the water supply reliability constraint, an important consideration as the rising expense of new source development may encourage some communities to accept a nominal number of supply shortfalls. Results demonstrate how changes in the distribution of various transfer types within a portfolio can affect its cost and reliability. Results also suggest that substantial savings can be obtained through the use of market-based risk management strategies, with optimal portfolio costs averaging as much as 35 percent less than the costs of meeting reliability targets through the maintenance of firm capacity. Both the conceptual and modeling approach described in this work are likely to have increasing application as water scarcity continues to drive the search for more efficient approaches to water resource management.

A Marketing Analysis to Determine the Consumer Demand for Ambulatory Surgery at Darnall Army Community Hospital, Fort Hood, Texas

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-08-01

8 Marketing Research ...... ................................9 The Marketing Audit...9 A Marketing Research Model .... ..........................10 An Ambulatory Marketing Model. .... ......................12 Stage 1. Internal...14 Stage 4. Modifications of Internal Projecttons. .. ......14 Marketing Research on Ambulatory Surgical Centers .. ........15 Research

Essays in the California electricity reserves markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metaxoglou, Konstantinos

This dissertation examines inefficiencies in the California electricity reserves markets. In Chapter 1, I use the information released during the investigation of the state's electricity crisis of 2000 and 2001 by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to diagnose allocative inefficiencies. Building upon the work of Wolak (2000), I calculate a lower bound for the sellers' price-cost margins using the inverse elasticities of their residual demand curves. The downward bias in my estimates stems from the fact that I don't account for the hierarchical substitutability of the reserve types. The margins averaged at least 20 percent for the two highest quality types of reserves, regulation and spinning, generating millions of dollars in transfers to a handful of sellers. I provide evidence that the deviations from marginal cost pricing were due to the markets' high concentration and a principal-agent relationship that emerged from their design. In Chapter 2, I document systematic differences between the markets' day- and hour-ahead prices. I use a high-dimensional vector moving average model to estimate the premia and conduct correct inferences. To obtain exact maximum likelihood estimates of the model, I employ the EM algorithm that I develop in Chapter 3. I uncover significant day-ahead premia, which I attribute to market design characteristics too. On the demand side, the market design established a principal-agent relationship between the markets' buyers (principal) and their supervisory authority (agent). The agent had very limited incentives to shift reserve purchases to the lower priced hour-ahead markets. On the supply side, the market design raised substantial entry barriers by precluding purely speculative trading and by introducing a complicated code of conduct that induced uncertainty about which actions were subject to regulatory scrutiny. In Chapter 3, I introduce a state-space representation for vector autoregressive moving average models that enables exact maximum likelihood estimation using the EM algorithm. Moreover, my algorithm uses only analytical expressions; it requires the Kalman filter and a fixed-interval smoother in the E step and least squares-type regression in the M step. In contrast, existing maximum likelihood estimation methods require numerical differentiation, both for univariate and multivariate models.

Mixture Hidden Markov Models in Finance Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, José G.; Vermunt, Jeroen K.; Ramos, Sofia

Finite mixture models have proven to be a powerful framework whenever unobserved heterogeneity cannot be ignored. We introduce in finance research the Mixture Hidden Markov Model (MHMM) that takes into account time and space heterogeneity simultaneously. This approach is flexible in the sense that it can deal with the specific features of financial time series data, such as asymmetry, kurtosis, and unobserved heterogeneity. This methodology is applied to model simultaneously 12 time series of Asian stock markets indexes. Because we selected a heterogeneous sample of countries including both developed and emerging countries, we expect that heterogeneity in market returns due to country idiosyncrasies will show up in the results. The best fitting model was the one with two clusters at country level with different dynamics between the two regimes.

The forest and agricultural sector optimization model (FASOM): model structure and policy applications.

Treesearch

Darius M. Adams; Ralph J. Alig; J.M. Callaway; Bruce A. McCarl; Steven M. Winnett

1996-01-01

The Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) is a dynamic, nonlinear programming model of the forest and agricultural sectors in the United States. The FASOM model initially was developed to evaluate welfare and market impacts of alternative policies for sequestering carbon in trees but also has been applied to a wider range of forest and agricultural...

Ethical marketing in 'aesthetic' ('esthetic') or 'cosmetic dentistry' part 2.

PubMed

Kelleher, Martin G D; Djemal, Serpil; Lewis, Nicholas

2012-01-01

This is the second article in a series of three. It is essential to find out from patients what it is that they hope to achieve when requesting an improvement in their dental appearance. Their expectations, hopes and fears need to be explored in detail. The long-term biologic costs of some invasive procedures need to be explained to patients in advance so that they can make properly informed decisions. Failure to do so renders the practitioner vulnerable to a charge of behaving unethically. The differences between ethical marketing and selling are explained including the historic development of marketing. A practical approach, using a modification of the Edward de Bono Six Thinking Hats model is described to help ethical practitioners to develop sound treatment plans when dealing with complex aesthetic problems.

Aggregate supply and demand modeling using GIS methods for the front range urban corridor, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakas, Ahmet; Turner, Keith

2004-07-01

The combined use of allocation modeling and geographical information system (GIS) technologies for providing quantitative assessments of aggregate supply and demand is evaluated using representative data for the Front Range Urban Corridor (FRUC) in Colorado. The FRUC extends from the Colorado-Wyoming border to south of Colorado Springs, and includes Denver and the major urban growth regions of Colorado. In this area, aggregate demand is high and is increasing in response to population growth. Neighborhood opposition to the establishment of new pits and quarries and the depletion of many deposits are limiting aggregate supplies. Many sources are already covered by urban development or eliminated from production by zoning. Transport of aggregate by rail from distant resources may be required in the future. Two allocation-modeling procedures are tested in this study. Network analysis procedures provided within the ARC/INFO software, are unsatisfactory. Further aggregate allocation modeling used a model specifically designed for this task; a modified version of an existing Colorado School of Mines allocation model allows for more realistic market analyses. This study evaluated four scenarios. The entire region was evaluated with a scenario reflecting the current market and by a second scenario in which some existing suppliers were closed down and new potential suppliers were activated. The conditions within the Denver metropolitan area were studied before and after the introduction of three possible rail-to-truck aggregate distribution centers. GIS techniques are helpful in developing the required database to describe the Front Range Urban Corridor aggregate market conditions. GIS methods allow the digital representation of the regional road network, and the development of a distance matrix relating all suppliers and purchasers.

Impact of HMO market structure on physician-hospital strategic alliances.

PubMed

Burns, L R; Bazzoli, G J; Dynan, L; Wholey, D R

2000-04-01

To assess the impact of HMO market structure on the formation of physician-hospital strategic alliances from 1993 through 1995. The two trends, managed care and physician-hospital integration have been prominent in reshaping insurance and provider markets over the past decade. Pooled cross-sectional data from the InterStudy HMO Census and the Annual Survey conducted by the American Hospital Association (AHA) between 1993 and the end of 1995 to examine the effects of HMO penetration and HMO numbers in a market on the formation of hospital-sponsored alliances with physicians. Because prior research has found nonlinear effects of HMOs on a variety of dependent variables, we operationalized HMO market structure two ways: using a Taylor series expansion and cross-classifying quartile distributions of HMO penetration and numbers into 16 dummy indicators. Alliance formation was operationalized using the presence of any alliance model (IPA, PHO, MSO, and foundation) and the sum of the four models present in the hospital. Because managed care and physician-hospital integration are endogenous (e.g., some hospitals also sponsor HMOs), we used an instrumental variables approach to model the determinants of HMO penetration and HMO numbers. These instruments were then used with other predictors of alliance formation: physician supply characteristics, the extent of hospital competition, hospital-level descriptors, population size and demographic characteristics, and indicators for each year. All equations were estimated at the MSA level using mixed linear models and first-difference models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, alliance formation is shaped by the number of HMOs in the market rather than by HMO penetration. This confirms a growing perception that hospital-sponsored alliances with physicians are contracting vehicles for managed care: the greater the number of HMOs to contract with, the greater the development of alliances. The models also show that alliance formation is low in markets where a small number of HMOs have deeply penetrated the market. First-difference models further show that alliance formation is linked to HMO consolidation (drop in the number of HMOs in a market) and hospital downsizing. Alliance formation is not linked to changes in hospital costs, profitability, or market competition with other hospitals. Hospitals appear to form alliances with physicians for several reasons. Alliances serve to contract with the growing number of HMOs, to pose a countervailing bargaining force of providers in the face of HMO consolidation, and to accompany hospital downsizing and restructuring efforts. Physician-hospital integration is often mentioned as a provider response to increasing cost-containment pressures due to rising managed care penetration. Our findings do not support this view. Alliances appear to serve the hospital's interest in bargaining with managed care plans on a more even basis.

Diffusion of subsidized ACTs in accredited drug shops in Tanzania: determinants of stocking and characteristics of early and late adopters

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Many households in sub-Saharan Africa utilize the private sector as a primary source of treatment for malaria episodes. Expanding access to effective treatment in private drug shops may help reduce incidence of severe disease and mortality. This research leveraged a longitudinal survey of stocking of subsidized artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs), an effective anti-malarial, in Accredited Drug Dispensing Outlets (ADDOs) in two regions of Tanzania. This provided a unique opportunity to explore shop and market level determinants of product diffusion in a developing country retail market. Methods 356 ADDOs in the Rukwa and Mtwara regions of Tanzania were surveyed at seven points between Feb 2011 and May 2012. Shop level audits were used to measure the availability of subsidized ACTs at each shop. Data on market and shop level factors were collected during the survey and also extracted from GIS layers. Regression and network based methodologies were used. Shops classified as early and late adopters, following Rogers’ model of product diffusion, were compared. The Bass model of product diffusion was applied to determine whether shops stocked ACTs out of a need to imitate market competitors or a desire to satisfy customer needs. Results Following the introduction of a subsidy for ACTs, stocking increased from 12% to nearly 80% over the seven survey rounds. Stocking was influenced by higher numbers of proximal shops and clinics, larger customer traffic and the presence of a licensed pharmacist. Early adopters were characterized by a larger percentage of customers seeking care for malaria, a larger catchment and sourcing from specific wholesalers/suppliers. The Bass model of product diffusion indicated that shops were adopting products in response to competitor behavior, rather than customer demand. Conclusions Decisions to stock new pharmaceutical products in Tanzanian ADDOs are influenced by a combination of factors related to both market competition and customer demand, but are particularly influenced by the behavior of competing shops. Efforts to expand access to new pharmaceutical products in developing country markets could benefit from initial targeting of high profile shops in competitive markets and wholesale suppliers to encourage faster product diffusion across all drug retailers. PMID:24350611

Diffusion of subsidized ACTs in accredited drug shops in Tanzania: determinants of stocking and characteristics of early and late adopters.

PubMed

Larson, Peter S; Yadav, Prashant; Alphs, Sarah; Arkedis, Jean; Massaga, Julius; Sabot, Oliver; Cohen, Jessica L

2013-12-18

Many households in sub-Saharan Africa utilize the private sector as a primary source of treatment for malaria episodes. Expanding access to effective treatment in private drug shops may help reduce incidence of severe disease and mortality. This research leveraged a longitudinal survey of stocking of subsidized artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs), an effective anti-malarial, in Accredited Drug Dispensing Outlets (ADDOs) in two regions of Tanzania. This provided a unique opportunity to explore shop and market level determinants of product diffusion in a developing country retail market. 356 ADDOs in the Rukwa and Mtwara regions of Tanzania were surveyed at seven points between Feb 2011 and May 2012. Shop level audits were used to measure the availability of subsidized ACTs at each shop. Data on market and shop level factors were collected during the survey and also extracted from GIS layers. Regression and network based methodologies were used. Shops classified as early and late adopters, following Rogers' model of product diffusion, were compared. The Bass model of product diffusion was applied to determine whether shops stocked ACTs out of a need to imitate market competitors or a desire to satisfy customer needs. Following the introduction of a subsidy for ACTs, stocking increased from 12% to nearly 80% over the seven survey rounds. Stocking was influenced by higher numbers of proximal shops and clinics, larger customer traffic and the presence of a licensed pharmacist. Early adopters were characterized by a larger percentage of customers seeking care for malaria, a larger catchment and sourcing from specific wholesalers/suppliers. The Bass model of product diffusion indicated that shops were adopting products in response to competitor behavior, rather than customer demand. Decisions to stock new pharmaceutical products in Tanzanian ADDOs are influenced by a combination of factors related to both market competition and customer demand, but are particularly influenced by the behavior of competing shops. Efforts to expand access to new pharmaceutical products in developing country markets could benefit from initial targeting of high profile shops in competitive markets and wholesale suppliers to encourage faster product diffusion across all drug retailers.

Phase-synchronisation in continuous flow models of production networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholz-Reiter, Bernd; Tervo, Jan Topi; Freitag, Michael

2006-04-01

To improve their position at the market, many companies concentrate on their core competences and hence cooperate with suppliers and distributors. Thus, between many independent companies strong linkages develop and production and logistics networks emerge. These networks are characterised by permanently increasing complexity, and are nowadays forced to adapt to dynamically changing markets. This factor complicates an enterprise-spreading production planning and control enormously. Therefore, a continuous flow model for production networks will be derived regarding these special logistic problems. Furthermore, phase-synchronisation effects will be presented and their dependencies to the set of network parameters will be investigated.

Default contagion risks in Russian interbank market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonidov, A. V.; Rumyantsev, E. L.

2016-06-01

Systemic risks of default contagion in the Russian interbank market are investigated. The analysis is based on considering the bow-tie structure of the weighted oriented graph describing the structure of the interbank loans. A probabilistic model of interbank contagion explicitly taking into account the empirical bow-tie structure reflecting functionality of the corresponding nodes (borrowers, lenders, borrowers and lenders simultaneously), degree distributions and disassortativity of the interbank network under consideration based on empirical data is developed. The characteristics of contagion-related systemic risk calculated with this model are shown to be in agreement with those of explicit stress tests.

Stability of power systems coupled with market dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Jianping

This Ph.D. thesis presented here spans two relatively independent topics. The first part, Chapter 2 is self-contained, and is dedicated to studies of new algorithms for power system state estimation. The second part, encompassing the remaining chapters, is dedicated to stability analysis of power system coupled with market dynamics. The first part of this thesis presents improved Newton's methods employing efficient vectorized calculations of higher order derivatives in power system state estimation problems. The improved algorithms are proposed based on an exact Newton's method using the second order terms. By efficiently computing an exact gain matrix, combined with a special optimal multiplier method, the new algorithms show more reliable convergence compared with the existing methods of normal equations, orthogonal decomposition, and Hachtel's sparse tableau. Our methods are able to handle ill-conditioned problems, yet show minimal penalty in computational cost for well-conditioned cases. These claims are illustrated through the standard IEEE 118 and 300 bus test examples. The second part of the thesis focuses on stability analysis of market/power systems. The work presented is motivated by an emerging problem. As the frequency of market based dispatch updates increases, there will inevitably be interaction between the dynamics of markets determining the generator dispatch commands, and the physical response of generators and network interconnections, necessitating the development of stability analysis for such coupled systems. We begin with numeric tests using different market models, with detailed machine/exciter/turbine/governor dynamics, in the New England 39 bus test system. A progression of modeling refinements are introduced, including such non-ideal effects as time delays. Electricity market parameter identification algorithms are also studied based on real time data from the PJM electricity market. Finally our power market model is augmented by optimal power flow constraints, allowing study of the so-called congestion problem. These studies show that understanding of potential modes of instability in such coupled systems is of crucial importance both in designing suitable rules for power markets, and in designing physical generator controls that are complementary to market-based dispatch.

Health insurance coverage, income distribution and healthcare quality in local healthcare markets.

PubMed

Damianov, Damian S; Pagán, José A

2013-08-01

We develop a theoretical model of a local healthcare system in which consumers, health insurance companies, and healthcare providers interact with each other in markets for health insurance and healthcare services. When income and health status are heterogeneous, and healthcare quality is associated with fixed costs, the market equilibrium level of healthcare quality will be underprovided. Thus, healthcare reform provisions and proposals to cover the uninsured can be interpreted as an attempt to correct this market failure. We illustrate with a numerical example that if consumers at the local level clearly understand the linkages between health insurance coverage and the quality of local healthcare services, health insurance coverage proposals are more likely to enjoy public support. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Pragmatic LDI Operational Network Model for Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheikh, Roshan; Mirza, Zahir Abbas

2008-10-01

This paper describes some common components of contemporary designs for the Long Distance & International (LDI) License in Pakistan and identifies critical aspects needed to implement a commercial LDI network in any developing country like Pakistan. An extensive study is carried out to evaluate various methods through which a carrier can receive and transmit voice traffic and identify their respective merits and demerits. Deficiencies which can harm the growth of telecom market in Pakistan and which require redress by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) are highlighted. A pragmatic model is proposed which takes into consideration, the constraints of Pakistan Telecommunication market. The paper concludes that the proposed model be incorporated with specific suggestions and economic justifications.

Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 1. The Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-12-01

An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

A Bayesian Multi-Level Factor Analytic Model of Consumer Price Sensitivities across Categories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duvvuri, Sri Devi; Gruca, Thomas S.

2010-01-01

Identifying price sensitive consumers is an important problem in marketing. We develop a Bayesian multi-level factor analytic model of the covariation among household-level price sensitivities across product categories that are substitutes. Based on a multivariate probit model of category incidence, this framework also allows the researcher to…

Multi-agent systems design for aerospace applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waslander, Steven L.

2007-12-01

Engineering systems with independent decision makers are becoming increasingly prevalent and present many challenges in coordinating actions to achieve systems goals. In particular, this work investigates the applications of air traffic flow control and autonomous vehicles as motivation to define algorithms that allow agents to agree to safe, efficient and equitable solutions in a distributed manner. To ensure system requirements will be satisfied in practice, each method is evaluated for a specific model of agent behavior, be it cooperative or non-cooperative. The air traffic flow control problem is investigated from the point of view of the airlines, whose costs are directly affected by resource allocation decisions made by the Federal Aviation Administration in order to mitigate traffic disruptions caused by weather. Airlines are first modeled as cooperative, and a distributed algorithm is presented with various global cost metrics which balance efficient and equitable use of resources differently. Next, a competitive airline model is assumed and two market mechanisms are developed for allocating contested airspace resources. The resource market mechanism provides a solution for which convergence to an efficient solution can be guaranteed, and each airline will improve on the solution that would occur without its inclusion in the decision process. A lump-sum market is then introduced as an alternative mechanism, for which efficiency loss bounds exist if airlines attempt to manipulate prices. Initial convergence results for lump-sum markets are presented for simplified problems with a single resource. To validate these algorithms, two air traffic flow models are developed which extend previous techniques, the first a convenient convex model made possible by assuming constant velocity flow, and the second a more complex flow model with full inflow, velocity and rerouting control. Autonomous vehicle teams are envisaged for many applications including mobile sensing and search and rescue. To enable these high-level applications, multi-vehicle collision avoidance is solved using a cooperative, decentralized algorithm. For the development of coordination algorithms for autonomous vehicles, the Stanford Testbed of Autonomous Rotorcraft for Multi-Agent Control (STARMAC) is presented. This testbed provides significant advantages over other aerial testbeds due to its small size and low maintenance requirements.

Advance market commitments for vaccines against neglected diseases: estimating costs and effectiveness.

PubMed

Berndt, Ernst R; Glennerster, Rachel; Kremer, Michael R; Lee, Jean; Levine, Ruth; Weizsäcker, Georg; Williams, Heidi

2007-05-01

The G8 is considering committing to purchase vaccines against diseases concentrated in low-income countries (if and when desirable vaccines are developed) as a way to spur research and development on vaccines for these diseases. Under such an 'advance market commitment,' one or more sponsors would commit to a minimum price to be paid per person immunized for an eligible product, up to a certain number of individuals immunized. For additional purchases, the price would eventually drop to close to marginal cost. If no suitable product were developed, no payments would be made. We estimate the offer size which would make revenues similar to the revenues realized from investments in typical existing commercial pharmaceutical products, as well as the degree to which various model contracts and assumptions would affect the cost-effectiveness of such a commitment. We make adjustments for lower marketing costs under an advance market commitment and the risk that a developer may have to share the market with subsequent developers. We also show how this second risk could be reduced, and money saved, by introducing a superiority clause to a commitment. Under conservative assumptions, we document that a commitment comparable in value to sales earned by the average of a sample of recently launched commercial products (adjusted for lower marketing costs) would be a highly cost-effective way to address HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Sensitivity analyses suggest most characteristics of a hypothetical vaccine would have little effect on the cost-effectiveness, but that the duration of protection conferred by a vaccine strongly affects potential cost-effectiveness. Readers can conduct their own sensitivity analyses employing a web-based spreadsheet tool. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The dual economy in long-run development

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

A salient feature of developing economies is the coexistence of a modern commercial sector alongside a traditional subsistence sector—the dual economy. The apparent differences in productivity between sectors imply substantial losses in aggregate productivity. Existing theories of the dual economy rely on exogenous price distortions, and cannot explain why or if these distortions evolve over the course of development. This paper provides a model of the dual economy in which the productivity differences arise endogenously because of a non-separability between the value of market and non-market time in the traditional sector. Incorporating endogenous fertility, the model then demonstrates how a dual economy will originate, persist, and eventually disappear within a unified growth framework. An implication is that traditional sector productivity growth will exacerbate the inefficiencies of a dual economy and produce slower overall growth than will modern sector productivity improvements. PMID:23946556

Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2011-12-01

The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI and WRI 2000, Nordhaus 2006) and there is also some information on road networks and the travel time to the nearest cities (Nelson 2008). However, this information has not so far been integrated to facilitate analyses of market access and market influence, which has hampered many socio-economic analyses to date. The analysis by Verburg et al (2011) provides an important improvement in this respect. They developed a consistent global dataset on various market accessibility indicators on a 1 km2 spatial resolution. Their analysis shows that market access is distinctly different from population patterns in some regions, which may help us to understand the prevalence of current economic conditions there. These are mostly areas with high population density, but little access to markets and, hence, a large share of subsistence farming and local economic activities. Measures of market access and market influence can improve our understanding about the drivers of environmental change, as they link regional and global economic activity to local environmental conditions. They can also help to assess, design and implement targeted measures to reduce environmental pressure and improve ecosystem services. The analysis and dataset provided by Verburg et al demonstrates the kind of valuable insights that can be generated by an integration of earth observation data, local case studies and modeling efforts at different spatial scales. This integration can improve monitoring, modeling and management of various global environmental changes, which will contribute to more sustainable economic development (Lotze-Campen et al 2008). Moreover, local market access is an important factor for economic development, poverty and food security. Aggregate, national figures, such as the human development index, do not provide sufficient detail. In many developing countries, certain rural areas lack market access and related options for development, as shown by Verburg et al for e.g. Nigeria and Ethiopia. Together with data from household studies, the new dataset could provide the basis for improved assessments of targeted infrastructure investment, which could help to reduce environmental degradation, promote economic development and alleviate poverty. References Alcamo J et al 1996 Baseline scenarios of global environmental change Glob. Environ. Change—Human Policy Dimens. 6 261-303 CIESIN, IFPRI and WRI 2000 Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 2 (available at http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/plue/gpw, accessed March 2004) Erb K-H et al 2007 A comprehensive global 5 min resolution land-use data set for the year 2000 consistent with national census data J. Land Use Sci. 2 191-224 Heistermann M, Müller C and Ronneberger K 2006 Land in sight? Achievements, deficits and potentials of global land-use modeling Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 114 141-58 Lambin E F and Meyfroidt P 2011 Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108 3465-72 Leemans R et al 1996 The land cover and carbon cycle consequences of large-scale utilizations of biomass as an energy source Glob. Environ. Change 6 335-57 Lotze-Campen H, Reusswig F and Stoll-Kleemann S 2008 Socio-ecological monitoring of biodiversity change: building upon the world network of biosphere reserves GAIA—Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society 17 (Suppl. 1) 107-15 Nelson A 2008 Estimated travel time to the nearest city of 50,000 or more people in year 2000 (Ispra: Global Environment Monitoring Unit, Joint Research Centre of the European Commission) (available at http://bioval.jrc.ec.europa.eu/products/gam/download.htm, accessed August 2011) Nordhaus W D 2006 Geography and macroeconomics: new data and new findings Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 103 3510-7 Popp A et al 2011 The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system Environ. Res. Lett. 6 034017 Schneider U A et al 2011 Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption Agricult. Syst. 104 204-15 Verburg P H, Ellis E C and Letourneau A 2011 A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies Environ. Res. Lett. 6 034019 Woodward F I, Smith T M and Emanuel W R 1995 A global land primary productivity and phytogeography model Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 9 471-90

Model documentation, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

This report documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the National Energy Modeling System`s (NEMS) Coal Market Module (CMM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of CMM`s two submodules. These are the Coal Production Submodule (CPS) and the Coal Distribution Submodule (CDS). CMM provides annual forecasts of prices, production, and consumption of coal for NEMS. In general, the CDS integrates the supply inputs from the CPS to satisfy demands for coal from exogenous demand models. The internationalmore » area of the CDS forecasts annual world coal trade flows from major supply to major demand regions and provides annual forecasts of US coal exports for input to NEMS. Specifically, the CDS receives minemouth prices produced by the CPS, demand and other exogenous inputs from other NEMS components, and provides delivered coal prices and quantities to the NEMS economic sectors and regions.« less

Efficacy and toxicological studies of cremophor EL free alternative paclitaxel formulation.

PubMed

Utreja, Puneet; Jain, Subheet; Yadav, Subodh; Khandhuja, K L; Tiwary, A K

2011-11-01

In the present study, Cremophor EL free paclitaxel elastic liposomal formulation consisting of soya phosphatidylcholine and biosurfactant sodium deoxycholate was developed and optimized. The toxicological profile, antitumor efficacy and hemolytic toxicity of paclitaxel elastic liposomal formulation in comparison to Cremophor EL based marketed formulation were evaluated. Paclitaxel elastic liposomal formulations were prepared and characterized in vitro, ex-vivo and in vivo. Single dose toxicity study of paclitaxel elastic liposomal and marketed formulation was carried out in dose range of 10, 20, 40, 80, 120, 160 and 200 mg/kg. Cytotoxicity of developed formulation was evaluated using small cell lung cancer cell line (A549). Antitumor activity of developed formulation was compared with the marketed formulation using Cytoselect™ 96-well cell transformation assay. In vivo administration of paclitaxel elastic liposomal formulation into mice showed 6 fold increase in Maximum Tolerated Dose (MTD) in comparison to the marketed formulation. Similarly, LD50 (141.6 mg/kg) was also found to increase significantly than the marketed formulation (16.7 mg/kg). Result of antitumor assay revealed a high reduction of tumor density with paclitaxel elastic liposomal formulation. Reduction in hemolytic toxicity was also observed with paclitaxel elastic liposomal formulation in comparison to the marketed formulation. The carrier based approach for paclitaxel delivery demonstrated significant reduction in toxicity as compared to the Cremophor EL based marketed formulation following intra-peritoneal administration in mice model. The reduced toxicity and enhanced anti-cancer activity of elastic liposomal formulation strongly indicate its potential for safe and effective delivery of paclitaxel.

Big data, smart homes and ambient assisted living.

PubMed

Vimarlund, V; Wass, S

2014-08-15

To discuss how current research in the area of smart homes and ambient assisted living will be influenced by the use of big data. A scoping review of literature published in scientific journals and conference proceedings was performed, focusing on smart homes, ambient assisted living and big data over the years 2011-2014. The health and social care market has lagged behind other markets when it comes to the introduction of innovative IT solutions and the market faces a number of challenges as the use of big data will increase. First, there is a need for a sustainable and trustful information chain where the needed information can be transferred from all producers to all consumers in a structured way. Second, there is a need for big data strategies and policies to manage the new situation where information is handled and transferred independently of the place of the expertise. Finally, there is a possibility to develop new and innovative business models for a market that supports cloud computing, social media, crowdsourcing etc. The interdisciplinary area of big data, smart homes and ambient assisted living is no longer only of interest for IT developers, it is also of interest for decision makers as customers make more informed choices among today's services. In the future it will be of importance to make information usable for managers and improve decision making, tailor smart home services based on big data, develop new business models, increase competition and identify policies to ensure privacy, security and liability.

Solving inverse problem for Markov chain model of customer lifetime value using flower pollination algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Ma'shumah, Fathimah; Permana, Dony; Sidarto, Kuntjoro Adji

2015-12-01

Customer Lifetime Value is an important and useful concept in marketing. One of its benefits is to help a company for budgeting marketing expenditure for customer acquisition and customer retention. Many mathematical models have been introduced to calculate CLV considering the customer retention/migration classification scheme. A fairly new class of these models which will be described in this paper uses Markov Chain Models (MCM). This class of models has the major advantage for its flexibility to be modified to several different cases/classification schemes. In this model, the probabilities of customer retention and acquisition play an important role. From Pfeifer and Carraway, 2000, the final formula of CLV obtained from MCM usually contains nonlinear form of the transition probability matrix. This nonlinearity makes the inverse problem of CLV difficult to solve. This paper aims to solve this inverse problem, yielding the approximate transition probabilities for the customers, by applying metaheuristic optimization algorithm developed by Yang, 2013, Flower Pollination Algorithm. The major interpretation of obtaining the transition probabilities are to set goals for marketing teams in keeping the relative frequencies of customer acquisition and customer retention.

Study on supply chain management in tourism e-commerce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yaodong; Wu, Shuyan; Ma, Haiyan

2009-07-01

On-line customer research has been conducted for European and American markets by marketers and academics. Whilst e-Commerce and tourism develop rapidly in China, and the fraud information in E-commerce market makes the conditions of information asymmetry becoming more seriously, understanding of Chinese internet travelers is required. This paper reviews current research on supply chain management (SCM) within the context of tourism. SCM in the manufacturing industry has attracted widespread research interest over the past two decades, whereas studies of SCM in the tourism e-commerce are very limited. The potential benefit of considering not only individual enterprises but also the tourism value chain becomes evident. This paper presents the model e-market structure and process analysis of tourism e-commerce, and also sets up tourism supply chain and tourism e-commerce system to probe how to apply tourism ecommerce to promote the sustainable development of tourism. The paper also identifies key research questions in TSCM worthy of future theoretical and empirical exploration.

Market Mechanism Design for Renewable Energy based on Risk Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Wu; Bo, Wang; Jichun, Liu; Wenjiao, Zai; Pingliang, Zeng; Haobo, Shi

2018-02-01

Generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is an efficient market means for transforming supply structure of electric power into sustainable development pattern. But the trading is hampered by the output fluctuations of renewable energy and the cost differences between renewable energy and thermal power at present. In this paper, the external environmental cost (EEC) is defined and the EEC is introduced into the generation cost. At same time, the incentive functions of renewable energy and low-emission thermal power are designed, which are decreasing functions of EEC. On these bases, for the market risks caused by the random variability of EEC, the decision-making model of generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is constructed according to the risk theory. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model are verified by simulation results.

Considerations for a business model for the effective integration of novel biomarkers into drug development.

PubMed

Frueh, Felix W

2008-11-01

It is 10 years since the introduction of trastuzumab into the US market, and we are still waiting for a validation of the business case for biomarker-driven drug development. While many reasons for the lack of duplication of this model may exist, the need for accelerated innovation in drug development paired with the opportunity of integrating biomarker-driven research into drug development programs may lead to new and creative ways of fostering the cooperation between drug developers and test manufacturers. The rapid increase in knowledge about biomarkers and our understanding of disease and disease mechanisms open unprecedented prospects to make not only better, more informed decisions regarding patient care, but also strategic decisions during drug development. This requires that a biomarker strategy becomes an integral part of (early) drug development and that new, innovative paths are tried towards a model that combines the scientific approach with an economically feasible implementation strategy. Collaborative research, the use of new communication tools, the exploration of alternative ways to position a product in the market, and other considerations are part of such a strategy. This perspective article illustrates the current landscape and takes a look at some of these new ways for more effectively integrating biomarkers into drug development.

Essays on pricing electricity and electricity derivatives in deregulated markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popova, Julia

2008-10-01

This dissertation is composed of four essays on the behavior of wholesale electricity prices and their derivatives. The first essay provides an empirical model that takes into account the spatial features of a transmission network on the electricity market. The spatial structure of the transmission grid plays a key role in determining electricity prices, but it has not been incorporated into previous empirical models. The econometric model in this essay incorporates a simple representation of the transmission system into a spatial panel data model of electricity prices, and also accounts for the effect of dynamic transmission system constraints on electricity market integration. Empirical results using PJM data confirm the existence of spatial patterns in electricity prices and show that spatial correlation diminishes as transmission lines become more congested. The second essay develops and empirically tests a model of the influence of natural gas storage inventories on the electricity forward premium. I link a model of the effect of gas storage constraints on the higher moments of the distribution of electricity prices to a model of the effect of those moments on the forward premium. Empirical results using PJM data support the model's predictions that gas storage inventories sharply reduce the electricity forward premium when demand for electricity is high and space-heating demand for gas is low. The third essay examines the efficiency of PJM electricity markets. A market is efficient if prices reflect all relevant information, so that prices follow a random walk. The hypothesis of random walk is examined using empirical tests, including the Portmanteau, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, KPSS, and multiple variance ratio tests. The results are mixed though evidence of some level of market efficiency is found. The last essay investigates the possibility that previous researchers have drawn spurious conclusions based on classical unit root tests incorrectly applied to wholesale electricity prices. It is well known that electricity prices exhibit both cyclicity and high volatility which varies through time. Results indicate that heterogeneity in unconditional variance---which is not detected by classical unit root tests---may contribute to the appearance of non-stationarity.

Regulating incentives: the past and present role of the state in health care systems.

PubMed

Saltman, Richard B

2002-06-01

The desire of national policymakers to encourage entrepreneurial behavior in the health sector has generated not only a new structure of market-oriented incentives, but also a new regulatory role for the State. To ensure that entrepreneurial behavior will be directed toward achieving planned market objectives, the State must shift modalities from staid bureaucratic models of command-and-control to more sensitive and sophisticated systems of oversight and supervision. Available evidence suggests that this structural transformation is currently occurring in several Northern European countries. Successful implementation of that shift will require a new, intensive, and expensive strategy for human resources development, raising questions about the financial feasibility of this incentives-plus-regulation model for less-well-off CEE/CIS and developing countries.

Private health insurance: a role model for European health systems.

PubMed

Arentz, Christine; Eekhoff, Johann; Kochskämper, Susanna

2012-10-01

European health care systems will face major challenges in the near future. Demographic change and technological progress induce rising costs. In order to deal with these developments and to preserve the current level of health care provision, health care systems need to be highly efficient. Yet existing health care systems show a lot of inefficiencies that result in waste of scarce resources. Therefore, improvements in performance are necessary. In this article, we argue that a change in financing health care accompanied by the liberalisation of the market for health care service providers offers a promising solution. We develop a market-based model for financing health care and show how it can be put into practice without generating additional costs for society while meeting social equity criteria.

Stochastic processes in the social sciences: Markets, prices and wealth distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romero, Natalia E.

The present work uses statistical mechanics tools to investigate the dynamics of markets, prices, trades and wealth distribution. We studied the evolution of market dynamics in different stages of historical development by analyzing commodity prices from two distinct periods ancient Babylon, and medieval and early modern England. We find that the first-digit distributions of both Babylon and England commodity prices follow Benfords law, indicating that the data represent empirical observations typically arising from a free market. Further, we find that the normalized prices of both Babylon and England agricultural commodities are characterized by stretched exponential distributions, and exhibit persistent correlations of a power law type over long periods of up to several centuries, in contrast to contemporary markets. Our findings suggest that similar market interactions may underlie the dynamics of ancient agricultural commodity prices, and that these interactions may remain stable across centuries. To further investigate the dynamics of markets we present the analogy between transfers of money between individuals and the transfer of energy through particle collisions by means of the kinetic theory of gases. We introduce a theoretical framework of how the micro rules of trading lead to the emergence of income and wealth distribution. Particularly, we study the effects of different types of distribution of savings/investments among individuals in a society and different welfare/subsidies redistribution policies. Results show that while considering savings propensities the models approach empirical distributions of wealth quite well the effect of redistribution better captures specific features of the distributions which earlier models failed to do; moreover the models still preserve the exponential decay observed in empirical income distributions reported by tax data and surveys.

Uncooled LWIR imaging: applications and market analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takasawa, Satomi

2015-05-01

The evolution of infrared (IR) imaging sensor technology for defense market has played an important role in developing commercial market, as dual use of the technology has expanded. In particular, technologies of both reduction in pixel pitch and vacuum package have drastically evolved in the area of uncooled Long-Wave IR (LWIR; 8-14 μm wavelength region) imaging sensor, increasing opportunity to create new applications. From the macroscopic point of view, the uncooled LWIR imaging market is divided into two areas. One is a high-end market where uncooled LWIR imaging sensor with sensitivity as close to that of cooled one as possible is required, while the other is a low-end market which is promoted by miniaturization and reduction in price. Especially, in the latter case, approaches towards consumer market have recently appeared, such as applications of uncooled LWIR imaging sensors to night visions for automobiles and smart phones. The appearance of such a kind of commodity surely changes existing business models. Further technological innovation is necessary for creating consumer market, and there will be a room for other companies treating components and materials such as lens materials and getter materials and so on to enter into the consumer market.

Smallholder dairy sheep production and market channel development: an institutional perspective of rural Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

PubMed

Voors, M J; D'Haese, M

2010-08-01

The rural economy of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has been adapting to new economic and political realities. Especially important for rural areas has been the breakdown of the socialist market structure in agriculture, which meant the demise of cooperative structures and farmers gaining access to new market outlets. The aim of this paper is to investigate the potential of dairy sheep farmers to enter into new contracts with buyers and to analyze why some farmers continue selling to traditional market outlets. Using survey data of dairy sheep farmers we studied the choice they make between 3 market outlets: (1) selling milk to a recently established large dairy processor, (2) selling milk to traditional small local processors, or (3) transforming milk on-farm into cheese and selling it at the farm gate or at local markets. The significance of determinants of choice for these markets were tested in a multinomial logit model, which showed that distance to the collection point of the large dairy processor was the most important determinant of whether farmers sold milk or made cheese, with those at a greater distance selling cheese. Furthermore, we analyzed the main sources of transaction costs in developing new market channels. Overcoming transport and transaction costs may contribute to higher income for the farmers and hence to improving their livelihoods. Copyright (c) 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Game-Theoretic Model of Marketing Skin Whiteners.

PubMed

Mendoza, Roger Lee

2015-01-01

Empirical studies consistently find that people in less developed countries tend to regard light or "white" skin, particularly among women, as more desirable or superior. This is a study about the marketing of skin whiteners in these countries, where over 80 percent of users are typically women. It proceeds from the following premises: a) Purely market or policy-oriented approaches toward the risks and harms of skin whitening are cost-inefficient; b) Psychosocial and informational factors breed uninformed and risky consumer choices that favor toxic skin whiteners; and c) Proliferation of toxic whiteners in a competitive buyer's market raises critical supplier accountability issues. Is intentional tort a rational outcome of uncooperative game equilibria? Can voluntary cooperation nonetheless evolve between buyers and sellers of skin whiteners? These twin questions are key to addressing the central paradox in this study: A robust and expanding buyer's market, where cheap whitening products abound at a high risk to personal and societal health and safety. Game-theoretic modeling of two-player and n-player strategic interactions is proposed in this study for both its explanatory and predictive value. Therein also lie its practical contributions to the economic literature on skin whitening.

A fuzzy logic model to forecast stock market momentum in Indonesia's property and real estate sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penawar, H. K.; Rustam, Z.

2017-07-01

The Capital market has the important role in Indonesia's economy. The capital market does not only support the economy of Indonesia but also being an indicator Indonesia's economy improvement. Something that has been traded in the capital market is stock (stock market). Nowadays, the stock market is full of uncertainty. That uncertainty values make predicting stock market is all that we have to do before we make a decision in the stock market. One that can be predicted in the stock market is momentum. To forecast stock market momentum, it can use fuzzy logic model. In the process of modeling, it will be used 14 days historical data that consisting the value of open, high, low, and close, to predict the next 5 days momentum categories. There are three momentum categories namely Bullish, Neutral, and Bearish. To illustrate the fuzzy logic model, we will use stocks data from several companies that listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in property and real estate sector.

Marketing Human Resource Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frank, Eric, Ed.

1994-01-01

Describes three human resource development activities: training, education, and development. Explains marketing from the practitioners's viewpoint in terms of customer orientation; external and internal marketing; and market analysis, research, strategy, and mix. Shows how to design, develop, and implement strategic marketing plans and identify…

Modelling the perennial energy crop market: the role of spatial diffusion

PubMed Central

Alexander, Peter; Moran, Dominic; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Smith, Pete

2013-01-01

Biomass produced from energy crops, such as Miscanthus and short rotation coppice is expected to contribute to renewable energy targets, but the slower than anticipated development of the UK market implies the need for greater understanding of the factors that govern adoption. Here, we apply an agent-based model of the UK perennial energy crop market, including the contingent interaction of supply and demand, to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of energy crop adoption. Results indicate that perennial energy crop supply will be between six and nine times lower than previously published, because of time lags in adoption arising from a spatial diffusion process. The model simulates time lags of at least 20 years, which is supported empirically by the analogue of oilseed rape adoption in the UK from the 1970s. This implies the need to account for time lags arising from spatial diffusion in evaluating land-use change, climate change (mitigation or adaptation) or the adoption of novel technologies. PMID:24026474

Modelling the perennial energy crop market: the role of spatial diffusion.

PubMed

Alexander, Peter; Moran, Dominic; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Smith, Pete

2013-11-06

Biomass produced from energy crops, such as Miscanthus and short rotation coppice is expected to contribute to renewable energy targets, but the slower than anticipated development of the UK market implies the need for greater understanding of the factors that govern adoption. Here, we apply an agent-based model of the UK perennial energy crop market, including the contingent interaction of supply and demand, to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of energy crop adoption. Results indicate that perennial energy crop supply will be between six and nine times lower than previously published, because of time lags in adoption arising from a spatial diffusion process. The model simulates time lags of at least 20 years, which is supported empirically by the analogue of oilseed rape adoption in the UK from the 1970s. This implies the need to account for time lags arising from spatial diffusion in evaluating land-use change, climate change (mitigation or adaptation) or the adoption of novel technologies.

Nutrigenomics-based personalised nutritional advice: in search of a business model?

PubMed

Ronteltap, Amber; van Trijp, Hans; Berezowska, Aleksandra; Goossens, Jo

2013-03-01

Nutritional advice has mainly focused on population-level recommendations. Recent developments in nutrition, communication, and marketing sciences have enabled potential deviations from this dominant business model in the direction of personalisation of nutrition advice. Such personalisation efforts can take on many forms, but these have in common that they can only be effective if they are supported by a viable business model. The present paper takes an inventory of approaches to personalised nutrition currently available in the market place as its starting point to arrive at an identification of their underlying business models. This analysis is presented as a unifying framework against which the potential of nutrigenomics-based personalised advice can be assessed. It has uncovered nine archetypical approaches to personalised nutrition advice in terms of their dominant underlying business models. Differentiating features among such business models are the type of information that is used as a basis for personalisation, the definition of the target group, the communication channels that are being adopted, and the partnerships that are built as a part of the business model. Future research should explore the consumer responses to the diversity of "archetypical" business models for personalised nutrition advice as a source of market information on which the delivery of nutrigenomics-based personalised nutrition advice may further build.

Mars Colony in situ resource utilization: An integrated architecture and economics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shishko, Robert; Fradet, René; Do, Sydney; Saydam, Serkan; Tapia-Cortez, Carlos; Dempster, Andrew G.; Coulton, Jeff

2017-09-01

This paper reports on our effort to develop an ensemble of specialized models to explore the commercial potential of mining water/ice on Mars in support of a Mars Colony. This ensemble starts with a formal systems architecting framework to describe a Mars Colony and capture its artifacts' parameters and technical attributes. The resulting database is then linked to a variety of ;downstream; analytic models. In particular, we integrated an extraction process (i.e., ;mining;) model, a simulation of the colony's environmental control and life support infrastructure known as HabNet, and a risk-based economics model. The mining model focuses on the technologies associated with in situ resource extraction, processing, storage and handling, and delivery. This model computes the production rate as a function of the systems' technical parameters and the local Mars environment. HabNet simulates the fundamental sustainability relationships associated with establishing and maintaining the colony's population. The economics model brings together market information, investment and operating costs, along with measures of market uncertainty and Monte Carlo techniques, with the objective of determining the profitability of commercial water/ice in situ mining operations. All told, over 50 market and technical parameters can be varied in order to address ;what-if; questions, including colony location.

The Quantitative Analysis of Chennai Automotive Industry Cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaskaran, Ethirajan

2016-07-01

Chennai, also called as Detroit of India due to presence of Automotive Industry producing over 40 % of the India's vehicle and components. During 2001-2002, the Automotive Component Industries (ACI) in Ambattur, Thirumalizai and Thirumudivakkam Industrial Estate, Chennai has faced problems on infrastructure, technology, procurement, production and marketing. The objective is to study the Quantitative Performance of Chennai Automotive Industry Cluster before (2001-2002) and after the CDA (2008-2009). The methodology adopted is collection of primary data from 100 ACI using quantitative questionnaire and analyzing using Correlation Analysis (CA), Regression Analysis (RA), Friedman Test (FMT), and Kruskall Wallis Test (KWT).The CA computed for the different set of variables reveals that there is high degree of relationship between the variables studied. The RA models constructed establish the strong relationship between the dependent variable and a host of independent variables. The models proposed here reveal the approximate relationship in a closer form. KWT proves, there is no significant difference between three locations clusters with respect to: Net Profit, Production Cost, Marketing Costs, Procurement Costs and Gross Output. This supports that each location has contributed for development of automobile component cluster uniformly. The FMT proves, there is no significant difference between industrial units in respect of cost like Production, Infrastructure, Technology, Marketing and Net Profit. To conclude, the Automotive Industries have fully utilized the Physical Infrastructure and Centralised Facilities by adopting CDA and now exporting their products to North America, South America, Europe, Australia, Africa and Asia. The value chain analysis models have been implemented in all the cluster units. This Cluster Development Approach (CDA) model can be implemented in industries of under developed and developing countries for cost reduction and productivity increase.

Design and Test of Fan/Nacelle Models Quiet High-Speed Fan Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Christopher J. (Technical Monitor); Repp, Russ; Gentile, David; Hanson, David; Chunduru, Srinivas

2003-01-01

The primary objective of the Quiet High-Speed Fan (QHSF) program was to develop an advanced high-speed fan design that will achieve a 6 dB reduction in overall fan noise over a baseline configuration while maintaining similar performance. The program applies and validates acoustic, aerodynamic, aeroelastic, and mechanical design tools developed by NASA, US industry, and academia. The successful fan design will be used in an AlliedSignal Engines (AE) advanced regional engine to be marketed in the year 2000 and beyond. This technology is needed to maintain US industry leadership in the regional turbofan engine market.

The transmission system as main actor in electricity market development in Romania

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petrescu, A.M.; Mihailescu, F.

1998-07-01

At the beginning of 1998, Romanian Electricity Authority (RENEL) was a fully integrated generation, transmission and distribution company, which managed all aspects of planning, design, and operation of Romania' s electricity sector. This form of vertically integrated organization has enabled to develop the high voltage transmission system in order to transfer electricity from the large power plants on indigenous coal (lignite) to the deficit electricity areas. An analysis based on specific characteristics of Romanian Transmission System allows the identification of a suitable model cost for transmission services evaluation. The transmission electricity tariff as a market tool has become a necessitymore » for the heterogeneous Romanian power systems from the repartition of the generation against the demand location point of view. The experience of the power system development planner shows that the most suitable model for the transmission electricity system cost assessment is the rated zones in order to reflect the geographical imbalance of generation and demand and the ability of the transmission system to accommodate this imbalance. Setting principles for the cost evaluation has to be sustained by the service evaluation on the grid nodes at the interface between transmission system and distribution system. This cost evaluation under the form of incentives for new producers has to be reconsidered year by year taking into account the evolution in time both production side and demand side. The incentives have to be addressed directly to the producers and must be strong enough to provide an efficient reliable operation of the whole power system. Transmission planners have to develop new approaches to deal with the uncertainties of the market; a combination of market forces and regulation seems to ensure the best way for the quality and security of the power system beside of the efficiency of all actors from the electricity market.« less

Methodology for Physics and Engineering of Reliable Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornford, Steven L.; Gibbel, Mark

1996-01-01

Physics of failure approaches have gained wide spread acceptance within the electronic reliability community. These methodologies involve identifying root cause failure mechanisms, developing associated models, and utilizing these models to inprove time to market, lower development and build costs and higher reliability. The methodology outlined herein sets forth a process, based on integration of both physics and engineering principles, for achieving the same goals.

17 CFR 240.15c3-1f - Optional market and credit risk requirements for OTC derivatives dealers (Appendix F to 17 CFR...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... charges. An OTC derivatives dealer shall provide a description of all statistical models used for pricing... controls over those models, and a statement regarding whether the firm has developed its own internal VAR models. If the OTC derivatives dealer's VAR model incorporates empirical correlations across risk...

Systems with Many Degrees of Freedom: from Mean - Theories of Non-Fermi Liquid Behavior in Impurity Models to Implied Binomial Trees for Modeling Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barle, Stanko

In this dissertation, two dynamical systems with many degrees of freedom are analyzed. One is the system of highly correlated electrons in the two-impurity Kondo problem. The other deals with building a realistic model of diffusion underlying financial markets. The simplest mean-field theory capable of mimicking the non-Fermi liquid behavior of the critical point in the two-impurity Kondo problem is presented. In this approach Landau's adiabaticity assumption--of a one-to-one correspondence between the low-energy excitations of the interacting and noninteracting systems--is violated through the presence of decoupled local degrees of freedom. These do not couple directly to external fields but appear indirectly in the physical properties leading, for example, to the log(T, omega) behavior of the staggered magnetic susceptibility. Also, as observed previously, the correlation function <{bf S}_1 cdot{bf S}_2> = -1/4 is a consequence of the equal weights of the singlet and triplet impurity configurations at the critical point. In the second problem, a numerical model is developed to describe the diffusion of prices in the market. Implied binomial (or multinomial) trees are constructed to enable practical pricing of derivative securities in consistency with the existing market. The method developed here is capable of accounting for both the strike price and term structure of the implied volatility. It includes the correct treatment of interest rate and dividends which proves robust even if these quantities are unusually large. The method is explained both as a set of individual innovations and, from a different prospective, as a consequence of a single plausible transformation from the tree of spot prices to the tree of futures prices.

Ethanol distribution, dispensing, and use: analysis of a portion of the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain using system dynamics.

PubMed

Vimmerstedt, Laura J; Bush, Brian; Peterson, Steve

2012-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 targets use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels per year by 2022. Achieving this may require substantial changes to current transportation fuel systems for distribution, dispensing, and use in vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory designed a system dynamics approach to help focus government action by determining what supply chain changes would have the greatest potential to accelerate biofuels deployment. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed the Biomass Scenario Model, a system dynamics model which represents the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain. The model provides a framework for developing scenarios and conducting biofuels policy analysis. This paper focuses on the downstream portion of the supply chain-represented in the distribution logistics, dispensing station, and fuel utilization, and vehicle modules of the Biomass Scenario Model. This model initially focused on ethanol, but has since been expanded to include other biofuels. Some portions of this system are represented dynamically with major interactions and feedbacks, especially those related to a dispensing station owner's decision whether to offer ethanol fuel and a consumer's choice whether to purchase that fuel. Other portions of the system are modeled with little or no dynamics; the vehicle choices of consumers are represented as discrete scenarios. This paper explores conditions needed to sustain an ethanol fuel market and identifies implications of these findings for program and policy goals. A large, economically sustainable ethanol fuel market (or other biofuel market) requires low end-user fuel price relative to gasoline and sufficient producer payment, which are difficult to achieve simultaneously. Other requirements (different for ethanol vs. other biofuel markets) include the need for infrastructure for distribution and dispensing and widespread use of high ethanol blends in flexible-fuel vehicles.

Ethanol Distribution, Dispensing, and Use: Analysis of a Portion of the Biomass-to-Biofuels Supply Chain Using System Dynamics

PubMed Central

Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Bush, Brian; Peterson, Steve

2012-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 targets use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels per year by 2022. Achieving this may require substantial changes to current transportation fuel systems for distribution, dispensing, and use in vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory designed a system dynamics approach to help focus government action by determining what supply chain changes would have the greatest potential to accelerate biofuels deployment. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed the Biomass Scenario Model, a system dynamics model which represents the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain. The model provides a framework for developing scenarios and conducting biofuels policy analysis. This paper focuses on the downstream portion of the supply chain–represented in the distribution logistics, dispensing station, and fuel utilization, and vehicle modules of the Biomass Scenario Model. This model initially focused on ethanol, but has since been expanded to include other biofuels. Some portions of this system are represented dynamically with major interactions and feedbacks, especially those related to a dispensing station owner’s decision whether to offer ethanol fuel and a consumer’s choice whether to purchase that fuel. Other portions of the system are modeled with little or no dynamics; the vehicle choices of consumers are represented as discrete scenarios. This paper explores conditions needed to sustain an ethanol fuel market and identifies implications of these findings for program and policy goals. A large, economically sustainable ethanol fuel market (or other biofuel market) requires low end-user fuel price relative to gasoline and sufficient producer payment, which are difficult to achieve simultaneously. Other requirements (different for ethanol vs. other biofuel markets) include the need for infrastructure for distribution and dispensing and widespread use of high ethanol blends in flexible-fuel vehicles. PMID:22606230

Model of personal consumption under conditions of modern economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakhmatullina, D. K.; Akhmetshina, E. R.; Ignatjeva, O. A.

2017-12-01

In the conditions of the modern economy, in connection with the development of production, the expansion of the market for goods and services, its differentiation, active use of marketing tools in the sphere of sales, changes occur in the system of values and consumer needs. Motives that drive the consumer are transformed, stimulating it to activity. The article presents a model of personal consumption that takes into account modern trends in consumer behavior. The consumer, making a choice, seeks to maximize the overall utility from consumption, physiological and socio-psychological satisfaction, in accordance with his expectations, preferences and conditions of consumption. The system of his preferences is formed under the influence of factors of a different nature. It is also shown that the structure of consumer spending allows us to characterize and predict its further behavior in the market. Based on the proposed model and analysis of current trends in consumer behavior, conclusions and recommendations have been made that can be used by legislative and executive government bodies, business organizations, research centres and other structures to form a methodological and analytical tool for preparing a forecast model of consumption.