Science.gov

Sample records for markov ordering approach

  1. Exact significance test for Markov order

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pethel, S. D.; Hahs, D. W.

    2014-02-01

    We describe an exact significance test of the null hypothesis that a Markov chain is nth order. The procedure utilizes surrogate data to yield an exact test statistic distribution valid for any sample size. Surrogate data are generated using a novel algorithm that guarantees, per shot, a uniform sampling from the set of sequences that exactly match the nth order properties of the observed data. Using the test, the Markov order of Tel Aviv rainfall data is examined.

  2. Industrial Power Distribution System Reliability Assessment utilizing Markov Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guzman-Rivera, Oscar R.

    A method to perform power system reliability analysis using Markov Approach, Reliability Block Diagrams and Fault Tree analysis has been presented. The Markov method we use is a state space model and is based on state diagrams generated for a one line industrial power distribution system. The Reliability block diagram (RBD) method is a graphical and calculation tool used to model the distribution power system of an industrial facility. Quantitative reliability estimations on this work are based on CARMS and Block Sim simulations as well as state space, RBD's and Failure Mode analyses. The power system reliability was assessed and the main contributors to power system reliability have been identified, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Methods to improve reliability have also been provided including redundancies and protection systems that might be added to the system in order to improve reliability.

  3. Predictive Rate-Distortion for Infinite-Order Markov Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzen, Sarah E.; Crutchfield, James P.

    2016-06-01

    Predictive rate-distortion analysis suffers from the curse of dimensionality: clustering arbitrarily long pasts to retain information about arbitrarily long futures requires resources that typically grow exponentially with length. The challenge is compounded for infinite-order Markov processes, since conditioning on finite sequences cannot capture all of their past dependencies. Spectral arguments confirm a popular intuition: algorithms that cluster finite-length sequences fail dramatically when the underlying process has long-range temporal correlations and can fail even for processes generated by finite-memory hidden Markov models. We circumvent the curse of dimensionality in rate-distortion analysis of finite- and infinite-order processes by casting predictive rate-distortion objective functions in terms of the forward- and reverse-time causal states of computational mechanics. Examples demonstrate that the resulting algorithms yield substantial improvements.

  4. State space orderings for Gauss-Seidel in Markov chains revisited

    SciTech Connect

    Dayar, T.

    1996-12-31

    Symmetric state space orderings of a Markov chain may be used to reduce the magnitude of the subdominant eigenvalue of the (Gauss-Seidel) iteration matrix. Orderings that maximize the elemental mass or the number of nonzero elements in the dominant term of the Gauss-Seidel splitting (that is, the term approximating the coefficient matrix) do not necessarily converge faster. An ordering of a Markov chain that satisfies Property-R is semi-convergent. On the other hand, there are semi-convergent symmetric state space orderings that do not satisfy Property-R. For a given ordering, a simple approach for checking Property-R is shown. An algorithm that orders the states of a Markov chain so as to increase the likelihood of satisfying Property-R is presented. The computational complexity of the ordering algorithm is less than that of a single Gauss-Seidel iteration (for sparse matrices). In doing all this, the aim is to gain an insight for faster converging orderings. Results from a variety of applications improve the confidence in the algorithm.

  5. Kinetics and thermodynamics of first-order Markov chain copolymerization

    SciTech Connect

    Gaspard, P.; Andrieux, D.

    2014-07-28

    We report a theoretical study of stochastic processes modeling the growth of first-order Markov copolymers, as well as the reversed reaction of depolymerization. These processes are ruled by kinetic equations describing both the attachment and detachment of monomers. Exact solutions are obtained for these kinetic equations in the steady regimes of multicomponent copolymerization and depolymerization. Thermodynamic equilibrium is identified as the state at which the growth velocity is vanishing on average and where detailed balance is satisfied. Away from equilibrium, the analytical expression of the thermodynamic entropy production is deduced in terms of the Shannon disorder per monomer in the copolymer sequence. The Mayo-Lewis equation is recovered in the fully irreversible growth regime. The theory also applies to Bernoullian chains in the case where the attachment and detachment rates only depend on the reacting monomer.

  6. First and second order semi-Markov chains for wind speed modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prattico, F.; Petroni, F.; D'Amico, G.

    2012-04-01

    Markov chain with different number of states, and Weibull distribution. All this model use Markov chains to generate synthetic wind speed time series but the search for a better model is still open. Approaching this issue, we applied new models which are generalization of Markov models. More precisely we applied semi-Markov models to generate synthetic wind speed time series. Semi-Markov processes (SMP) are a wide class of stochastic processes which generalize at the same time both Markov chains and renewal processes. Their main advantage is that of using whatever type of waiting time distribution for modeling the time to have a transition from one state to another one. This major flexibility has a price to pay: availability of data to estimate the parameters of the model which are more numerous. Data availability is not an issue in wind speed studies, therefore, semi-Markov models can be used in a statistical efficient way. In this work we present three different semi-Markov chain models: the first one is a first-order SMP where the transition probabilities from two speed states (at time Tn and Tn-1) depend on the initial state (the state at Tn-1), final state (the state at Tn) and on the waiting time (given by t=Tn-Tn-1), the second model is a second order SMP where we consider the transition probabilities as depending also on the state the wind speed was before the initial state (which is the state at Tn-2) and the last one is still a second order SMP where the transition probabilities depends on the three states at Tn-2,Tn-1 and Tn and on the waiting times t_1=Tn-1-Tn-2 and t_2=Tn-Tn-1. The three models are used to generate synthetic time series for wind speed by means of Monte Carlo simulations and the time lagged autocorrelation is used to compare statistical properties of the proposed models with those of real data and also with a time series generated though a simple Markov chain. [1] F. Youcef Ettoumi, H. Sauvageot, A.-E.-H. Adane, Statistical bivariate modeling

  7. Inferring Sequential Order of Somatic Mutations during Tumorgenesis based on Markov Chain Model.

    PubMed

    Kang, Hao; Cho, Kwang-Hyun; Zhang, Xiaohua Douglas; Zeng, Tao; Chen, Luonan

    2015-01-01

    Tumors are developed and worsen with the accumulated mutations on DNA sequences during tumorigenesis. Identifying the temporal order of gene mutations in cancer initiation and development is a challenging topic. It not only provides a new insight into the study of tumorigenesis at the level of genome sequences but also is an effective tool for early diagnosis of tumors and preventive medicine. In this paper, we develop a novel method to accurately estimate the sequential order of gene mutations during tumorigenesis from genome sequencing data based on Markov chain model as TOMC (Temporal Order based on Markov Chain), and also provide a new criterion to further infer the order of samples or patients, which can characterize the severity or stage of the disease. We applied our method to the analysis of tumors based on several high-throughput datasets. Specifically, first, we revealed that tumor suppressor genes (TSG) tend to be mutated ahead of oncogenes, which are considered as important events for key functional loss and gain during tumorigenesis. Second, the comparisons of various methods demonstrated that our approach has clear advantages over the existing methods due to the consideration on the effect of mutation dependence among genes, such as co-mutation. Third and most important, our method is able to deduce the ordinal sequence of patients or samples to quantitatively characterize their severity of tumors. Therefore, our work provides a new way to quantitatively understand the development and progression of tumorigenesis based on high throughput sequencing data. PMID:26451822

  8. Post processing with first- and second-order hidden Markov models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taghva, Kazem; Poudel, Srijana; Malreddy, Spandana

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we present the implementation and evaluation of first order and second order Hidden Markov Models to identify and correct OCR errors in the post processing of books. Our experiments show that the first order model approximately corrects 10% of the errors with 100% precision, while the second order model corrects a higher percentage of errors with much lower precision.

  9. High-order hidden Markov model for piecewise linear processes and applications to speech recognition.

    PubMed

    Lee, Lee-Min; Jean, Fu-Rong

    2016-08-01

    The hidden Markov models have been widely applied to systems with sequential data. However, the conditional independence of the state outputs will limit the output of a hidden Markov model to be a piecewise constant random sequence, which is not a good approximation for many real processes. In this paper, a high-order hidden Markov model for piecewise linear processes is proposed to better approximate the behavior of a real process. A parameter estimation method based on the expectation-maximization algorithm was derived for the proposed model. Experiments on speech recognition of noisy Mandarin digits were conducted to examine the effectiveness of the proposed method. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reduce the recognition error rate compared to a baseline hidden Markov model. PMID:27586781

  10. Fitting optimum order of Markov chain models for daily rainfall occurrences in Peninsular Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deni, Sayang Mohd; Jemain, Abdul Aziz; Ibrahim, Kamarulzaman

    2009-06-01

    The analysis of the daily rainfall occurrence behavior is becoming more important, particularly in water-related sectors. Many studies have identified a more comprehensive pattern of the daily rainfall behavior based on the Markov chain models. One of the aims in fitting the Markov chain models of various orders to the daily rainfall occurrence is to determine the optimum order. In this study, the optimum order of the Markov chain models for a 5-day sequence will be examined in each of the 18 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia, which have been selected based on the availability of the data, using the Akaike’s (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). The identification of the most appropriate order in describing the distribution of the wet (dry) spells for each of the rainfall stations is obtained using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. It is found that the optimum order varies according to the levels of threshold used (e.g., either 0.1 or 10.0 mm), the locations of the region and the types of monsoon seasons. At most stations, the Markov chain models of a higher order are found to be optimum for rainfall occurrence during the northeast monsoon season for both levels of threshold. However, it is generally found that regardless of the monsoon seasons, the first-order model is optimum for the northwestern and eastern regions of the peninsula when the level of thresholds of 10.0 mm is considered. The analysis indicates that the first order of the Markov chain model is found to be most appropriate for describing the distribution of wet spells, whereas the higher-order models are found to be adequate for the dry spells in most of the rainfall stations for both threshold levels and monsoon seasons.

  11. Heisenberg picture approach to the stability of quantum Markov systems

    SciTech Connect

    Pan, Yu E-mail: zibo.miao@anu.edu.au; Miao, Zibo E-mail: zibo.miao@anu.edu.au; Amini, Hadis; Gough, John; Ugrinovskii, Valery; James, Matthew R.

    2014-06-15

    Quantum Markovian systems, modeled as unitary dilations in the quantum stochastic calculus of Hudson and Parthasarathy, have become standard in current quantum technological applications. This paper investigates the stability theory of such systems. Lyapunov-type conditions in the Heisenberg picture are derived in order to stabilize the evolution of system operators as well as the underlying dynamics of the quantum states. In particular, using the quantum Markov semigroup associated with this quantum stochastic differential equation, we derive sufficient conditions for the existence and stability of a unique and faithful invariant quantum state. Furthermore, this paper proves the quantum invariance principle, which extends the LaSalle invariance principle to quantum systems in the Heisenberg picture. These results are formulated in terms of algebraic constraints suitable for engineering quantum systems that are used in coherent feedback networks.

  12. Using higher-order Markov models to reveal flow-based communities in networks

    PubMed Central

    Salnikov, Vsevolod; Schaub, Michael T.; Lambiotte, Renaud

    2016-01-01

    Complex systems made of interacting elements are commonly abstracted as networks, in which nodes are associated with dynamic state variables, whose evolution is driven by interactions mediated by the edges. Markov processes have been the prevailing paradigm to model such a network-based dynamics, for instance in the form of random walks or other types of diffusions. Despite the success of this modelling perspective for numerous applications, it represents an over-simplification of several real-world systems. Importantly, simple Markov models lack memory in their dynamics, an assumption often not realistic in practice. Here, we explore possibilities to enrich the system description by means of second-order Markov models, exploiting empirical pathway information. We focus on the problem of community detection and show that standard network algorithms can be generalized in order to extract novel temporal information about the system under investigation. We also apply our methodology to temporal networks, where we can uncover communities shaped by the temporal correlations in the system. Finally, we discuss relations of the framework of second order Markov processes and the recently proposed formalism of using non-backtracking matrices for community detection. PMID:27029508

  13. Detecting Memory and Structure in Human Navigation Patterns Using Markov Chain Models of Varying Order

    PubMed Central

    Singer, Philipp; Helic, Denis; Taraghi, Behnam; Strohmaier, Markus

    2014-01-01

    One of the most frequently used models for understanding human navigation on the Web is the Markov chain model, where Web pages are represented as states and hyperlinks as probabilities of navigating from one page to another. Predominantly, human navigation on the Web has been thought to satisfy the memoryless Markov property stating that the next page a user visits only depends on her current page and not on previously visited ones. This idea has found its way in numerous applications such as Google's PageRank algorithm and others. Recently, new studies suggested that human navigation may better be modeled using higher order Markov chain models, i.e., the next page depends on a longer history of past clicks. Yet, this finding is preliminary and does not account for the higher complexity of higher order Markov chain models which is why the memoryless model is still widely used. In this work we thoroughly present a diverse array of advanced inference methods for determining the appropriate Markov chain order. We highlight strengths and weaknesses of each method and apply them for investigating memory and structure of human navigation on the Web. Our experiments reveal that the complexity of higher order models grows faster than their utility, and thus we confirm that the memoryless model represents a quite practical model for human navigation on a page level. However, when we expand our analysis to a topical level, where we abstract away from specific page transitions to transitions between topics, we find that the memoryless assumption is violated and specific regularities can be observed. We report results from experiments with two types of navigational datasets (goal-oriented vs. free form) and observe interesting structural differences that make a strong argument for more contextual studies of human navigation in future work. PMID:25013937

  14. The optimum order of a Markov chain model for daily rainfall in Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jimoh, O. D.; Webster, P.

    1996-11-01

    Markov type models are often used to describe the occurrence of daily rainfall. Although models of Order 1 have been successfully employed, there remains uncertainty concerning the optimum order for such models. This paper is concerned with estimation of the optimum order of Markov chains and, in particular, the use of objective criteria of the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC and BIC, respectively). Using daily rainfall series for five stations in Nigeria, it has been found that the AIC and BIC estimates vary with month as well as the value of the rainfall threshold used to define a wet day. There is no apparent system to this variation, although AIC estimates are consistently greater than or equal to BIC estimates, with values of the latter limited to zero or unity. The optimum order is also investigated through generation of synthetic sequences of wet and dry days using the transition matrices of zero-, first- and second-order Markov chains. It was found that the first-order model is superior to the zero-order model in representing the characteristics of the historical sequence as judged using frequency duration curves. There was no discernible difference between the model performance for first- and second-order models. There was no seasonal varation in the model performance, which contrasts with the optimum models identified using AIC and BIC estimates. It is concluded that caution is needed with the use of objective criteria for determining the optimum order of the Markov model and that the use of frequency duration curves can provide a robust alternative method of model identification. Comments are also made on the importance of record length and non-stationarity for model identification

  15. A new approach to simulating stream isotope dynamics using Markov switching autoregressive models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Birkel, Christian; Paroli, Roberta; Spezia, Luigi; Dunn, Sarah M.; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Soulsby, Chris

    2012-09-01

    In this study we applied Markov switching autoregressive models (MSARMs) as a proof-of-concept to analyze the temporal dynamics and statistical characteristics of the time series of two conservative water isotopes, deuterium (δ2H) and oxygen-18 (δ18O), in daily stream water samples over two years in a small catchment in eastern Scotland. MSARMs enabled us to explicitly account for the identified non-linear, non-Normal and non-stationary isotope dynamics of both time series. The hidden states of the Markov chain could also be associated with meteorological and hydrological drivers identifying the short (event) and longer-term (inter-event) transport mechanisms for both isotopes. Inference was based on the Bayesian approach performed through Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms, which also allowed us to deal with a high rate of missing values (17%). Although it is usually assumed that both isotopes are conservative and exhibit similar dynamics, δ18O showed somewhat different time series characteristics. Both isotopes were best modelled with two hidden states, but δ18O demanded autoregressions of the first order, whereas δ2H of the second. Moreover, both the dynamics of observations and the hidden states of the two isotopes were explained by two different sets of covariates. Consequently use of the two tracers for transit time modelling and hydrograph separation may result in different interpretations on the functioning of a catchment system.

  16. Statistical identification with hidden Markov models of large order splitting strategies in an equity market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaglica, Gabriella; Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N.

    2010-07-01

    Large trades in a financial market are usually split into smaller parts and traded incrementally over extended periods of time. We address these large trades as hidden orders. In order to identify and characterize hidden orders, we fit hidden Markov models to the time series of the sign of the tick-by-tick inventory variation of market members of the Spanish Stock Exchange. Our methodology probabilistically detects trading sequences, which are characterized by a significant majority of buy or sell transactions. We interpret these patches of sequential buying or selling transactions as proxies of the traded hidden orders. We find that the time, volume and number of transaction size distributions of these patches are fat tailed. Long patches are characterized by a large fraction of market orders and a low participation rate, while short patches have a large fraction of limit orders and a high participation rate. We observe the existence of a buy-sell asymmetry in the number, average length, average fraction of market orders and average participation rate of the detected patches. The detected asymmetry is clearly dependent on the local market trend. We also compare the hidden Markov model patches with those obtained with the segmentation method used in Vaglica et al (2008 Phys. Rev. E 77 036110), and we conclude that the former ones can be interpreted as a partition of the latter ones.

  17. A clustering approach for estimating parameters of a profile hidden Markov model.

    PubMed

    Aghdam, Rosa; Pezeshk, Hamid; Malekpour, Seyed Amir; Shemehsavar, Soudabeh; Eslahchi, Changiz

    2013-01-01

    A Profile Hidden Markov Model (PHMM) is a standard form of a Hidden Markov Models used for modeling protein and DNA sequence families based on multiple alignment. In this paper, we implement Baum-Welch algorithm and the Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain (BMCMC) method for estimating parameters of small artificial PHMM. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the estimation of the parameters of the PHMM, we classify the training data using the weighted values of sequences in the PHMM then apply an algorithm for estimating parameters of the PHMM. The results show that the BMCMC method performs better than the Maximum Likelihood estimation. PMID:23865165

  18. A Stable Clock Error Model Using Coupled First and Second Order Gauss-Markov Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carpenter, Russell; Lee, Taesul

    2008-01-01

    Long data outages may occur in applications of global navigation satellite system technology to orbit determination for missions that spend significant fractions of their orbits above the navigation satellite constellation(s). Current clock error models based on the random walk idealization may not be suitable in these circumstances, since the covariance of the clock errors may become large enough to overflow flight computer arithmetic. A model that is stable, but which approximates the existing models over short time horizons is desirable. A coupled first- and second-order Gauss-Markov process is such a model.

  19. A Hidden Markov Approach to Modeling Interevent Earthquake Times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chambers, D.; Ebel, J. E.; Kafka, A. L.; Baglivo, J.

    2003-12-01

    A hidden Markov process, in which the interevent time distribution is a mixture of exponential distributions with different rates, is explored as a model for seismicity that does not follow a Poisson process. In a general hidden Markov model, one assumes that a system can be in any of a finite number k of states and there is a random variable of interest whose distribution depends on the state in which the system resides. The system moves probabilistically among the states according to a Markov chain; that is, given the history of visited states up to the present, the conditional probability that the next state is a specified one depends only on the present state. Thus the transition probabilities are specified by a k by k stochastic matrix. Furthermore, it is assumed that the actual states are unobserved (hidden) and that only the values of the random variable are seen. From these values, one wishes to estimate the sequence of states, the transition probability matrix, and any parameters used in the state-specific distributions. The hidden Markov process was applied to a data set of 110 interevent times for earthquakes in New England from 1975 to 2000. Using the Baum-Welch method (Baum et al., Ann. Math. Statist. 41, 164-171), we estimate the transition probabilities, find the most likely sequence of states, and estimate the k means of the exponential distributions. Using k=2 states, we found the data were fit well by a mixture of two exponential distributions, with means of approximately 5 days and 95 days. The steady state model indicates that after approximately one fourth of the earthquakes, the waiting time until the next event had the first exponential distribution and three fourths of the time it had the second. Three and four state models were also fit to the data; the data were inconsistent with a three state model but were well fit by a four state model.

  20. A Markov random field approach for microstructure synthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, A.; Nguyen, L.; DeGraef, M.; Sundararaghavan, V.

    2016-03-01

    We test the notion that many microstructures have an underlying stationary probability distribution. The stationary probability distribution is ubiquitous: we know that different windows taken from a polycrystalline microstructure are generally ‘statistically similar’. To enable computation of such a probability distribution, microstructures are represented in the form of undirected probabilistic graphs called Markov Random Fields (MRFs). In the model, pixels take up integer or vector states and interact with multiple neighbors over a window. Using this lattice structure, algorithms are developed to sample the conditional probability density for the state of each pixel given the known states of its neighboring pixels. The sampling is performed using reference experimental images. 2D microstructures are artificially synthesized using the sampled probabilities. Statistical features such as grain size distribution and autocorrelation functions closely match with those of the experimental images. The mechanical properties of the synthesized microstructures were computed using the finite element method and were also found to match the experimental values.

  1. Reconstruction for distributed video coding: a Markov random field approach with context-adaptive smoothness prior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yongsheng; Xiong, Hongkai; He, Zhihai; Yu, Songyu

    2010-07-01

    An important issue in Wyner-Ziv video coding is the reconstruction of Wyner-Ziv frames with decoded bit-planes. So far, there are two major approaches: the Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) reconstruction and the Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE) reconstruction algorithms. However, these approaches do not exploit smoothness constraints in natural images. In this paper, we model a Wyner-Ziv frame by Markov random fields (MRFs), and produce reconstruction results by finding an MAP estimation of the MRF model. In the MRF model, the energy function consists of two terms: a data term, MSE distortion metric in this paper, measuring the statistical correlation between side-information and the source, and a smoothness term enforcing spatial coherence. In order to better describe the spatial constraints of images, we propose a context-adaptive smoothness term by analyzing the correspondence between the output of Slepian-Wolf decoding and successive frames available at decoders. The significance of the smoothness term varies in accordance with the spatial variation within different regions. To some extent, the proposed approach is an extension to the MAP and MMSE approaches by exploiting the intrinsic smoothness characteristic of natural images. Experimental results demonstrate a considerable performance gain compared with the MAP and MMSE approaches.

  2. A discrete time event-history approach to informative drop-out in mixed latent Markov models with covariates.

    PubMed

    Bartolucci, Francesco; Farcomeni, Alessio

    2015-03-01

    Mixed latent Markov (MLM) models represent an important tool of analysis of longitudinal data when response variables are affected by time-fixed and time-varying unobserved heterogeneity, in which the latter is accounted for by a hidden Markov chain. In order to avoid bias when using a model of this type in the presence of informative drop-out, we propose an event-history (EH) extension of the latent Markov approach that may be used with multivariate longitudinal data, in which one or more outcomes of a different nature are observed at each time occasion. The EH component of the resulting model is referred to the interval-censored drop-out, and bias in MLM modeling is avoided by correlated random effects, included in the different model components, which follow common latent distributions. In order to perform maximum likelihood estimation of the proposed model by the expectation-maximization algorithm, we extend the usual forward-backward recursions of Baum and Welch. The algorithm has the same complexity as the one adopted in cases of non-informative drop-out. We illustrate the proposed approach through simulations and an application based on data coming from a medical study about primary biliary cirrhosis in which there are two outcomes of interest, one continuous and the other binary. PMID:25227970

  3. The conditional independences between variables derived from two independent identically distributed Markov random fields when pairwise order is ignored.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Alun

    2010-09-01

    A result for the equivalence of conditional independence graphs of ordered and unordered vector random variables from first-order Markov models is extended to arbitrary forests. The result is relevant to estimating graphical models for linkage disequilibrium between genetic loci. It explains why, in terms of the conditional independence structure, it sometimes does not matter whether you consider haplotypes or genotypes.

  4. Renormalization group for centrosymmetric gauge transformations of the dynamic motion for a Markov-ordered polymer chain

    SciTech Connect

    Mikhailov, I.D.; Zhuravskii, L.V.

    1987-11-01

    A method is proposed for calculating the vibrational-state density averaged over all configurations for a polymer chain with Markov disorder. The method is based on using a group of centrally symmetric gauge transformations that reduce the dynamic matrix for along polymer chain to renormalized dynamic matrices for short fragments. The short-range order is incorporated exactly in the averaging procedure, while the long-range order is incorporated in the self-consistent field approximation. Results are given for a simple skeletal model for a polymer containing tacticity deviations of Markov type.

  5. A Hypergraph-Based Reduction for Higher-Order Binary Markov Random Fields.

    PubMed

    Fix, Alexander; Gruber, Aritanan; Boros, Endre; Zabih, Ramin

    2015-07-01

    Higher-order Markov Random Fields, which can capture important properties of natural images, have become increasingly important in computer vision. While graph cuts work well for first-order MRF's, until recently they have rarely been effective for higher-order MRF's. Ishikawa's graph cut technique [1], [2] shows great promise for many higher-order MRF's. His method transforms an arbitrary higher-order MRF with binary labels into a first-order one with the same minima. If all the terms are submodular the exact solution can be easily found; otherwise, pseudoboolean optimization techniques can produce an optimal labeling for a subset of the variables. We present a new transformation with better performance than [1], [2], both theoretically and experimentally. While [1], [2] transforms each higher-order term independently, we use the underlying hypergraph structure of the MRF to transform a group of terms at once. For n binary variables, each of which appears in terms with k other variables, at worst we produce n non-submodular terms, while [1], [2] produces O(nk). We identify a local completeness property under which our method perform even better, and show that under certain assumptions several important vision problems (including common variants of fusion moves) have this property. We show experimentally that our method produces smaller weight of non-submodular edges, and that this metric is directly related to the effectiveness of QPBO [3]. Running on the same field of experts dataset used in [1], [2] we optimally label significantly more variables (96 versus 80 percent) and converge more rapidly to a lower energy. Preliminary experiments suggest that some other higher-order MRF's used in stereo [4] and segmentation [5] are also locally complete and would thus benefit from our work.

  6. A Markov random field approach to group-wise registration/mosaicing with application to ultrasound.

    PubMed

    Kutarnia, Jason; Pedersen, Peder

    2015-08-01

    In this paper we present a group-wise non-rigid registration/mosaicing algorithm based on block-matching, which is developed within a probabilistic framework. The discrete form of its energy functional is linked to a Markov Random Field (MRF) containing double and triple cliques, which can be effectively optimized using modern MRF optimization algorithms popular in computer vision. Also, the registration problem is simplified by introducing a mosaicing function which partitions the composite volume into regions filled with data from unique, partially overlapping source volumes. Ultrasound confidence maps are incorporated into the registration framework in order to give accurate results in the presence of image artifacts. The algorithm is initially tested on simulated images where shadows have been generated. Also, validation results for the group-wise registration algorithm using real ultrasound data from an abdominal phantom are presented. Finally, composite obstetrics image volumes are constructed using clinical scans of pregnant subjects, where fetal movement makes registration/mosaicing especially difficult. In addition, results are presented suggesting that a fusion approach to MRF registration can produce accurate displacement fields much faster than standard approaches.

  7. A Markov Chain Approach to Probabilistic Swarm Guidance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Acikmese, Behcet; Bayard, David S.

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a probabilistic guidance approach for the coordination of swarms of autonomous agents. The main idea is to drive the swarm to a prescribed density distribution in a prescribed region of the configuration space. In its simplest form, the probabilistic approach is completely decentralized and does not require communication or collabo- ration between agents. Agents make statistically independent probabilistic decisions based solely on their own state, that ultimately guides the swarm to the desired density distribution in the configuration space. In addition to being completely decentralized, the probabilistic guidance approach has a novel autonomous self-repair property: Once the desired swarm density distribution is attained, the agents automatically repair any damage to the distribution without collaborating and without any knowledge about the damage.

  8. Markov-chain approach to the distribution of ancestors in species of biparental reproduction.

    PubMed

    Caruso, M; Jarne, C

    2014-08-01

    We studied how to obtain a distribution for the number of ancestors in species of sexual reproduction. Present models concentrate on the estimation of distributions repetitions of ancestors in genealogical trees. It has been shown that it is not possible to reconstruct the genealogical history of each species along all its generations by means of a geometric progression. This analysis demonstrates that it is possible to rebuild the tree of progenitors by modeling the problem with a Markov chain. For each generation, the maximum number of possible ancestors is different. This presents huge problems for the resolution. We found a solution through a dilation of the sample space, although the distribution defined there takes smaller values with respect to the initial problem. In order to correct the distribution for each generation, we introduced the invariance under a gauge (local) group of dilations. These ideas can be used to study the interaction of several processes and provide a new approach on the problem of the common ancestor. In the same direction, this model also provides some elements that can be used to improve models of animal reproduction.

  9. Markov-chain approach to the distribution of ancestors in species of biparental reproduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caruso, M.; Jarne, C.

    2014-08-01

    We studied how to obtain a distribution for the number of ancestors in species of sexual reproduction. Present models concentrate on the estimation of distributions repetitions of ancestors in genealogical trees. It has been shown that it is not possible to reconstruct the genealogical history of each species along all its generations by means of a geometric progression. This analysis demonstrates that it is possible to rebuild the tree of progenitors by modeling the problem with a Markov chain. For each generation, the maximum number of possible ancestors is different. This presents huge problems for the resolution. We found a solution through a dilation of the sample space, although the distribution defined there takes smaller values with respect to the initial problem. In order to correct the distribution for each generation, we introduced the invariance under a gauge (local) group of dilations. These ideas can be used to study the interaction of several processes and provide a new approach on the problem of the common ancestor. In the same direction, this model also provides some elements that can be used to improve models of animal reproduction.

  10. A Comparison of Proliferation Resistance Measures of Misuse Scenarios Using a Markov Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Yue,M.; Cheng, L.-Y.; Bari, R.

    2008-05-11

    Misuse of declared nuclear facilities is one of the important proliferation threats. The robustness of a facility against these threats is characterized by a number of proliferation resistance (PR) measures. This paper evaluates and compares PR measures for several misuse scenarios using a Markov model approach to implement the pathway analysis methodology being developed by the PR&PP (Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection) Expert Group. Different misue strategies can be adopted by a proliferator and each strategy is expected to have different impacts on the proliferator's success. Selected as the probabilistic measure to represent proliferation resistance, the probabilities of the proliferator's success of misusing a hypothetical ESFR (Example Sodium Fast Reactor) facility system are calculated using the Markov model based on the pathways constructed for individual misuse scenarios. Insights from a comparison of strategies that are likely to be adopted by the proliferator are discussed in this paper.

  11. A Markov game theoretic data fusion approach for cyber situational awareness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Dan; Chen, Genshe; Cruz, Jose B., Jr.; Haynes, Leonard; Kruger, Martin; Blasch, Erik

    2007-04-01

    This paper proposes an innovative data-fusion/ data-mining game theoretic situation awareness and impact assessment approach for cyber network defense. Alerts generated by Intrusion Detection Sensors (IDSs) or Intrusion Prevention Sensors (IPSs) are fed into the data refinement (Level 0) and object assessment (L1) data fusion components. High-level situation/threat assessment (L2/L3) data fusion based on Markov game model and Hierarchical Entity Aggregation (HEA) are proposed to refine the primitive prediction generated by adaptive feature/pattern recognition and capture new unknown features. A Markov (Stochastic) game method is used to estimate the belief of each possible cyber attack pattern. Game theory captures the nature of cyber conflicts: determination of the attacking-force strategies is tightly coupled to determination of the defense-force strategies and vice versa. Also, Markov game theory deals with uncertainty and incompleteness of available information. A software tool is developed to demonstrate the performance of the high level information fusion for cyber network defense situation and a simulation example shows the enhanced understating of cyber-network defense.

  12. Effective degree Markov-chain approach for discrete-time epidemic processes on uncorrelated networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Chao-Ran; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Guan, Jian-Yue

    2014-11-01

    Recently, Gómez et al. proposed a microscopic Markov-chain approach (MMCA) [S. Gómez, J. Gómez-Gardeñes, Y. Moreno, and A. Arenas, Phys. Rev. E 84, 036105 (2011), 10.1103/PhysRevE.84.036105] to the discrete-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic process and found that the epidemic prevalence obtained by this approach agrees well with that by simulations. However, we found that the approach cannot be straightforwardly extended to a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic process (due to its irreversible property), and the epidemic prevalences obtained by MMCA and Monte Carlo simulations do not match well when the infection probability is just slightly above the epidemic threshold. In this contribution we extend the effective degree Markov-chain approach, proposed for analyzing continuous-time epidemic processes [J. Lindquist, J. Ma, P. Driessche, and F. Willeboordse, J. Math. Biol. 62, 143 (2011), 10.1007/s00285-010-0331-2], to address discrete-time binary-state (SIS) or three-state (SIR) epidemic processes on uncorrelated complex networks. It is shown that the final epidemic size as well as the time series of infected individuals obtained from this approach agree very well with those by Monte Carlo simulations. Our results are robust to the change of different parameters, including the total population size, the infection probability, the recovery probability, the average degree, and the degree distribution of the underlying networks.

  13. MBMC: An Effective Markov Chain Approach for Binning Metagenomic Reads from Environmental Shotgun Sequencing Projects.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ying; Hu, Haiyan; Li, Xiaoman

    2016-08-01

    Metagenomics is a next-generation omics field currently impacting postgenomic life sciences and medicine. Binning metagenomic reads is essential for the understanding of microbial function, compositions, and interactions in given environments. Despite the existence of dozens of computational methods for metagenomic read binning, it is still very challenging to bin reads. This is especially true for reads from unknown species, from species with similar abundance, and/or from low-abundance species in environmental samples. In this study, we developed a novel taxonomy-dependent and alignment-free approach called MBMC (Metagenomic Binning by Markov Chains). Different from all existing methods, MBMC bins reads by measuring the similarity of reads to the trained Markov chains for different taxa instead of directly comparing reads with known genomic sequences. By testing on more than 24 simulated and experimental datasets with species of similar abundance, species of low abundance, and/or unknown species, we report here that MBMC reliably grouped reads from different species into separate bins. Compared with four existing approaches, we demonstrated that the performance of MBMC was comparable with existing approaches when binning reads from sequenced species, and superior to existing approaches when binning reads from unknown species. MBMC is a pivotal tool for binning metagenomic reads in the current era of Big Data and postgenomic integrative biology. The MBMC software can be freely downloaded at http://hulab.ucf.edu/research/projects/metagenomics/MBMC.html . PMID:27447888

  14. The Scalarization Approach to Multiobjective Markov Control Problems: Why Does It Work?

    SciTech Connect

    Hernandez-Lerma, Onesimo Romera, Rosario

    2004-10-15

    This paper concerns discrete-time multiobjective Markov control processes on Borel spaces and unbounded costs. Under mild assumptions, it is shown that the usual 'scalarization approach' to obtain Pareto policies for the multiobjective control problem is in fact equivalent to solving the dual of a certain multiobjective infinite-dimensional linear program. The latter program is obtained from a multiobjective measure problem which is also used to prove the existence of strong Pareto policies, that is, Paretopolicies whose cost vector is the closest to the control problem's virtual minimum.

  15. Medical Inpatient Journey Modeling and Clustering: A Bayesian Hidden Markov Model Based Approach

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; Wang, Fei; Duan, Huilong

    2015-01-01

    Modeling and clustering medical inpatient journeys is useful to healthcare organizations for a number of reasons including inpatient journey reorganization in a more convenient way for understanding and browsing, etc. In this study, we present a probabilistic model-based approach to model and cluster medical inpatient journeys. Specifically, we exploit a Bayesian Hidden Markov Model based approach to transform medical inpatient journeys into a probabilistic space, which can be seen as a richer representation of inpatient journeys to be clustered. Then, using hierarchical clustering on the matrix of similarities, inpatient journeys can be clustered into different categories w.r.t their clinical and temporal characteristics. We evaluated the proposed approach on a real clinical data set pertaining to the unstable angina treatment process. The experimental results reveal that our method can identify and model latent treatment topics underlying in personalized inpatient journeys, and yield impressive clustering quality. PMID:26958200

  16. Signal processing of MEMS gyroscope arrays to improve accuracy using a 1st order Markov for rate signal modeling.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Chengyu; Xue, Liang; Chang, Honglong; Yuan, Guangmin; Yuan, Weizheng

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a signal processing technique to improve angular rate accuracy of the gyroscope by combining the outputs of an array of MEMS gyroscope. A mathematical model for the accuracy improvement was described and a Kalman filter (KF) was designed to obtain optimal rate estimates. Especially, the rate signal was modeled by a first-order Markov process instead of a random walk to improve overall performance. The accuracy of the combined rate signal and affecting factors were analyzed using a steady-state covariance. A system comprising a six-gyroscope array was developed to test the presented KF. Experimental tests proved that the presented model was effective at improving the gyroscope accuracy. The experimental results indicated that six identical gyroscopes with an ARW noise of 6.2 °/√h and a bias drift of 54.14 °/h could be combined into a rate signal with an ARW noise of 1.8 °/√h and a bias drift of 16.3 °/h, while the estimated rate signal by the random walk model has an ARW noise of 2.4 °/√h and a bias drift of 20.6 °/h. It revealed that both models could improve the angular rate accuracy and have a similar performance in static condition. In dynamic condition, the test results showed that the first-order Markov process model could reduce the dynamic errors 20% more than the random walk model.

  17. A novel approach for global lung registration using 3D Markov-Gibbs appearance model.

    PubMed

    El-Baz, Ayman; Khalifa, Fahmi; Elnakib, Ahmed; Nitzken, Matthew; Soliman, Ahmed; McClure, Patrick; Abou El-Ghar, Mohamed; Gimel'farb, Georgy

    2012-01-01

    A new approach to align 3D CT data of a segmented lung object with a given prototype (reference lung object) using an affine transformation is proposed. Visual appearance of the lung from CT images, after equalizing their signals, is modeled with a new 3D Markov-Gibbs random field (MGRF) with pairwise interaction model. Similarity to the prototype is measured by a Gibbs energy of signal co-occurrences in a characteristic subset of voxel pairs derived automatically from the prototype. An object is aligned by an affine transformation maximizing the similarity by using an automatic initialization followed by a gradient search. Experiments confirm that our approach aligns complex objects better than popular conventional algorithms.

  18. Modelling Potential Field Sources in the Gelibolu Peninsula (Western Turkey) Using a Markov Random Field Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albora, A. Muhittin; Ucan, Osman N.; Aydogan, Davut

    2007-05-01

    In this study, a Markov Random Field (MRF) approach is used to locate source boundary positions which are difficult to identify from Bouguer gravity and magnetic maps. As a generalized form of Markov Chains, the MRF approach is an unsupervised statistical model based algorithm and is applied to the analysis of images, particularly in the detection of visual patterns or textures. Here, we present a dynamic programming based on the MRF approach for boundary detection of noisy and super-positioned potential anomalies, which are produced by various geological structures. In the MRF method, gravity and magnetic maps are considered as two-dimensional (2-D) images with a matrix composed of N 1 × N 2 pixels. Each pixel value of the matrix is optimized in real time with no a priori processing by using two parameter sets; average steering vector (θ) and quantization level (M). They carry information about the correlation of neighboring pixels and the locality of their connections. We have chosen MRF as a processing approach for geophysical data since it is an unsupervised, efficient model for image enhancement, border detection and separation of 2-D potential anomalies. The main benefit of MRF is that an average steering vector and a quantization level are enough in evaluation of the potential anomaly maps. We have compared the MRF method to noise implemented synthetic potential field anomalies. After satisfactory results were found, the method has been applied to gravity and magnetic anomaly maps of Gelibolu Peninsula in Western Turkey. Here, we have observed Anafartalar thrust fault and another parallel fault northwest of Anafartalar thrust fault. We have modeled a geological structure including a lateral fault, which results in a higher susceptibility and anomaly amplitude increment. We have shown that the MRF method is effective to detect the broad-scale geological structures in the Gelibolu Peninsula, and thus to delineate the complex tectonic structure of Gelibolu

  19. A computationally efficient approach for hidden-Markov model-augmented fingerprint-based positioning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roth, John; Tummala, Murali; McEachen, John

    2016-09-01

    This paper presents a computationally efficient approach for mobile subscriber position estimation in wireless networks. A method of data scaling assisted by timing adjust is introduced in fingerprint-based location estimation under a framework which allows for minimising computational cost. The proposed method maintains a comparable level of accuracy to the traditional case where no data scaling is used and is evaluated in a simulated environment under varying channel conditions. The proposed scheme is studied when it is augmented by a hidden-Markov model to match the internal parameters to the channel conditions that present, thus minimising computational cost while maximising accuracy. Furthermore, the timing adjust quantity, available in modern wireless signalling messages, is shown to be able to further reduce computational cost and increase accuracy when available. The results may be seen as a significant step towards integrating advanced position-based modelling with power-sensitive mobile devices.

  20. Switched Fault Diagnosis Approach for Industrial Processes based on Hidden Markov Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Lin; Yang, Chunjie; Sun, Youxian; Pan, Yijun; An, Ruqiao

    2015-11-01

    Traditional fault diagnosis methods based on hidden Markov model (HMM) use a unified method for feature extraction, such as principal component analysis (PCA), kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) and independent component analysis (ICA). However, every method has its own limitations. For example, PCA cannot extract nonlinear relationships among process variables. So it is inappropriate to extract all features of variables by only one method, especially when data characteristics are very complex. This article proposes a switched feature extraction procedure using PCA and KPCA based on nonlinearity measure. By the proposed method, we are able to choose the most suitable feature extraction method, which could improve the accuracy of fault diagnosis. A simulation from the Tennessee Eastman (TE) process demonstrates that the proposed approach is superior to the traditional one based on HMM and could achieve more accurate classification of various process faults.

  1. Modeling Dyadic Processes Using Hidden Markov Models: A Time Series Approach to Mother-Infant Interactions during Infant Immunization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stifter, Cynthia A.; Rovine, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The focus of the present longitudinal study, to examine mother-infant interaction during the administration of immunizations at 2 and 6?months of age, used hidden Markov modelling, a time series approach that produces latent states to describe how mothers and infants work together to bring the infant to a soothed state. Results revealed a…

  2. Signal Processing of MEMS Gyroscope Arrays to Improve Accuracy Using a 1st Order Markov for Rate Signal Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Chengyu; Xue, Liang; Chang, Honglong; Yuan, Guangmin; Yuan, Weizheng

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a signal processing technique to improve angular rate accuracy of the gyroscope by combining the outputs of an array of MEMS gyroscope. A mathematical model for the accuracy improvement was described and a Kalman filter (KF) was designed to obtain optimal rate estimates. Especially, the rate signal was modeled by a first-order Markov process instead of a random walk to improve overall performance. The accuracy of the combined rate signal and affecting factors were analyzed using a steady-state covariance. A system comprising a six-gyroscope array was developed to test the presented KF. Experimental tests proved that the presented model was effective at improving the gyroscope accuracy. The experimental results indicated that six identical gyroscopes with an ARW noise of 6.2 °/√h and a bias drift of 54.14 °/h could be combined into a rate signal with an ARW noise of 1.8 °/√h and a bias drift of 16.3 °/h, while the estimated rate signal by the random walk model has an ARW noise of 2.4 °/√h and a bias drift of 20.6 °/h. It revealed that both models could improve the angular rate accuracy and have a similar performance in static condition. In dynamic condition, the test results showed that the first-order Markov process model could reduce the dynamic errors 20% more than the random walk model. PMID:22438734

  3. Estimating variable effective population sizes from multiple genomes: a sequentially markov conditional sampling distribution approach.

    PubMed

    Sheehan, Sara; Harris, Kelley; Song, Yun S

    2013-07-01

    Throughout history, the population size of modern humans has varied considerably due to changes in environment, culture, and technology. More accurate estimates of population size changes, and when they occurred, should provide a clearer picture of human colonization history and help remove confounding effects from natural selection inference. Demography influences the pattern of genetic variation in a population, and thus genomic data of multiple individuals sampled from one or more present-day populations contain valuable information about the past demographic history. Recently, Li and Durbin developed a coalescent-based hidden Markov model, called the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC), for a pair of chromosomes (or one diploid individual) to estimate past population sizes. This is an efficient, useful approach, but its accuracy in the very recent past is hampered by the fact that, because of the small sample size, only few coalescence events occur in that period. Multiple genomes from the same population contain more information about the recent past, but are also more computationally challenging to study jointly in a coalescent framework. Here, we present a new coalescent-based method that can efficiently infer population size changes from multiple genomes, providing access to a new store of information about the recent past. Our work generalizes the recently developed sequentially Markov conditional sampling distribution framework, which provides an accurate approximation of the probability of observing a newly sampled haplotype given a set of previously sampled haplotypes. Simulation results demonstrate that we can accurately reconstruct the true population histories, with a significant improvement over the PSMC in the recent past. We apply our method, called diCal, to the genomes of multiple human individuals of European and African ancestry to obtain a detailed population size change history during recent times.

  4. Estimating Variable Effective Population Sizes from Multiple Genomes: A Sequentially Markov Conditional Sampling Distribution Approach

    PubMed Central

    Sheehan, Sara; Harris, Kelley; Song, Yun S.

    2013-01-01

    Throughout history, the population size of modern humans has varied considerably due to changes in environment, culture, and technology. More accurate estimates of population size changes, and when they occurred, should provide a clearer picture of human colonization history and help remove confounding effects from natural selection inference. Demography influences the pattern of genetic variation in a population, and thus genomic data of multiple individuals sampled from one or more present-day populations contain valuable information about the past demographic history. Recently, Li and Durbin developed a coalescent-based hidden Markov model, called the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC), for a pair of chromosomes (or one diploid individual) to estimate past population sizes. This is an efficient, useful approach, but its accuracy in the very recent past is hampered by the fact that, because of the small sample size, only few coalescence events occur in that period. Multiple genomes from the same population contain more information about the recent past, but are also more computationally challenging to study jointly in a coalescent framework. Here, we present a new coalescent-based method that can efficiently infer population size changes from multiple genomes, providing access to a new store of information about the recent past. Our work generalizes the recently developed sequentially Markov conditional sampling distribution framework, which provides an accurate approximation of the probability of observing a newly sampled haplotype given a set of previously sampled haplotypes. Simulation results demonstrate that we can accurately reconstruct the true population histories, with a significant improvement over the PSMC in the recent past. We apply our method, called diCal, to the genomes of multiple human individuals of European and African ancestry to obtain a detailed population size change history during recent times. PMID:23608192

  5. An information theoretic approach for generating an aircraft avoidance Markov Decision Process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinert, Andrew J.

    Developing a collision avoidance system that can meet safety standards required of commercial aviation is challenging. A dynamic programming approach to collision avoidance has been developed to optimize and generate logics that are robust to the complex dynamics of the national airspace. The current approach represents the aircraft avoidance problem as Markov Decision Processes and independently optimizes a horizontal and vertical maneuver avoidance logics. This is a result of the current memory requirements for each logic, simply combining the logics will result in a significantly larger representation. The "curse of dimensionality" makes it computationally inefficient and unfeasible to optimize this larger representation. However, existing and future collision avoidance systems have mostly defined the decision process by hand. In response, a simulation-based framework was built to better understand how each potential state quantifies the aircraft avoidance problem with regards to safety and operational components. The framework leverages recent advances in signals processing and database, while enabling the highest fidelity analysis of Monte Carlo aircraft encounter simulations to date. This framework enabled the calculation of how well each state of the decision process quantifies the collision risk and the associated memory requirements. Using this analysis, a collision avoidance logic that leverages both horizontal and vertical actions was built and optimized using this simulation based approach.

  6. An Obstructive Sleep Apnea Detection Approach Using a Discriminative Hidden Markov Model From ECG Signals.

    PubMed

    Song, Changyue; Liu, Kaibo; Zhang, Xi; Chen, Lili; Xian, Xiaochen

    2016-07-01

    Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) syndrome is a common sleep disorder suffered by an increasing number of people worldwide. As an alternative to polysomnography (PSG) for OSA diagnosis, the automatic OSA detection methods used in the current practice mainly concentrate on feature extraction and classifier selection based on collected physiological signals. However, one common limitation in these methods is that the temporal dependence of signals are usually ignored, which may result in critical information loss for OSA diagnosis. In this study, we propose a novel OSA detection approach based on ECG signals by considering temporal dependence within segmented signals. A discriminative hidden Markov model (HMM) and corresponding parameter estimation algorithms are provided. In addition, subject-specific transition probabilities within the model are employed to characterize the subject-to-subject differences of potential OSA patients. To validate our approach, 70 recordings obtained from the Physionet Apnea-ECG database were used. Accuracies of 97.1% for per-recording classification and 86.2% for per-segment OSA detection with satisfactory sensitivity and specificity were achieved. Compared with other existing methods that simply ignore the temporal dependence of signals, the proposed HMM-based detection approach delivers more satisfactory detection performance and could be extended to other disease diagnosis applications. PMID:26560867

  7. Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models.

    PubMed

    King, Ruth; Langrock, Roland

    2016-06-01

    We consider multi-state capture-recapture-recovery data where observed individuals are recorded in a set of possible discrete states. Traditionally, the Arnason-Schwarz model has been fitted to such data where the state process is modeled as a first-order Markov chain, though second-order models have also been proposed and fitted to data. However, low-order Markov models may not accurately represent the underlying biology. For example, specifying a (time-independent) first-order Markov process involves the assumption that the dwell time in each state (i.e., the duration of a stay in a given state) has a geometric distribution, and hence that the modal dwell time is one. Specifying time-dependent or higher-order processes provides additional flexibility, but at the expense of a potentially significant number of additional model parameters. We extend the Arnason-Schwarz model by specifying a semi-Markov model for the state process, where the dwell-time distribution is specified more generally, using, for example, a shifted Poisson or negative binomial distribution. A state expansion technique is applied in order to represent the resulting semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz model in terms of a simpler and computationally tractable hidden Markov model. Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models come with only a very modest increase in the number of parameters, yet permit a significantly more flexible state process. Model selection can be performed using standard procedures, and in particular via the use of information criteria. The semi-Markov approach allows for important biological inference to be drawn on the underlying state process, for example, on the times spent in the different states. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated in a simulation study, before being applied to real data corresponding to house finches where the states correspond to the presence or absence of conjunctivitis. PMID:26584064

  8. Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models.

    PubMed

    King, Ruth; Langrock, Roland

    2016-06-01

    We consider multi-state capture-recapture-recovery data where observed individuals are recorded in a set of possible discrete states. Traditionally, the Arnason-Schwarz model has been fitted to such data where the state process is modeled as a first-order Markov chain, though second-order models have also been proposed and fitted to data. However, low-order Markov models may not accurately represent the underlying biology. For example, specifying a (time-independent) first-order Markov process involves the assumption that the dwell time in each state (i.e., the duration of a stay in a given state) has a geometric distribution, and hence that the modal dwell time is one. Specifying time-dependent or higher-order processes provides additional flexibility, but at the expense of a potentially significant number of additional model parameters. We extend the Arnason-Schwarz model by specifying a semi-Markov model for the state process, where the dwell-time distribution is specified more generally, using, for example, a shifted Poisson or negative binomial distribution. A state expansion technique is applied in order to represent the resulting semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz model in terms of a simpler and computationally tractable hidden Markov model. Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models come with only a very modest increase in the number of parameters, yet permit a significantly more flexible state process. Model selection can be performed using standard procedures, and in particular via the use of information criteria. The semi-Markov approach allows for important biological inference to be drawn on the underlying state process, for example, on the times spent in the different states. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated in a simulation study, before being applied to real data corresponding to house finches where the states correspond to the presence or absence of conjunctivitis.

  9. Gold price effect on stock market: A Markov switching vector error correction approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wai, Phoong Seuk; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Kun, Sek Siok

    2014-06-01

    Gold is a popular precious metal where the demand is driven not only for practical use but also as a popular investments commodity. While stock market represents a country growth, thus gold price effect on stock market behavior as interest in the study. Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Models are applied to analysis the relationship between gold price and stock market changes since real financial data always exhibit regime switching, jumps or missing data through time. Besides, there are numerous specifications of Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Models and this paper will compare the intercept adjusted Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model and intercept adjusted heteroskedasticity Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model to determine the best model representation in capturing the transition of the time series. Results have shown that gold price has a positive relationship with Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia stock market and a two regime intercept adjusted heteroskedasticity Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model is able to provide the more significance and reliable result compare to intercept adjusted Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Models.

  10. A Markov chain Monte Carlo with Gibbs sampling approach to anisotropic receiver function forward modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wirth, Erin A.; Long, Maureen D.; Moriarty, John C.

    2016-10-01

    Teleseismic receiver functions contain information regarding Earth structure beneath a seismic station. P-to-SV converted phases are often used to characterize crustal and upper mantle discontinuities and isotropic velocity structures. More recently, P-to-SH converted energy has been used to interrogate the orientation of anisotropy at depth, as well as the geometry of dipping interfaces. Many studies use a trial-and-error forward modeling approach to the interpretation of receiver functions, generating synthetic receiver functions from a user-defined input model of Earth structure and amending this model until it matches major features in the actual data. While often successful, such an approach makes it impossible to explore model space in a systematic and robust manner, which is especially important given that solutions are likely non-unique. Here, we present a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with Gibbs sampling for the interpretation of anisotropic receiver functions. Synthetic examples are used to test the viability of the algorithm, suggesting that it works well for models with a reasonable number of free parameters (< ˜20). Additionally, the synthetic tests illustrate that certain parameters are well constrained by receiver function data, while others are subject to severe tradeoffs - an important implication for studies that attempt to interpret Earth structure based on receiver function data. Finally, we apply our algorithm to receiver function data from station WCI in the central United States. We find evidence for a change in anisotropic structure at mid-lithospheric depths, consistent with previous work that used a grid search approach to model receiver function data at this station. Forward modeling of receiver functions using model space search algorithms, such as the one presented here, provide a meaningful framework for interrogating Earth structure from receiver function data.

  11. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach to Estimate AIDS after HIV Infection

    PubMed Central

    Apenteng, Ofosuhene O.; Ismail, Noor Azina

    2015-01-01

    The spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and the resulting acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a major health concern in many parts of the world, and mathematical models are commonly applied to understand the spread of the HIV epidemic. To understand the spread of HIV and AIDS cases and their parameters in a given population, it is necessary to develop a theoretical framework that takes into account realistic factors. The current study used this framework to assess the interaction between individuals who developed AIDS after HIV infection and individuals who did not develop AIDS after HIV infection (pre-AIDS). We first investigated how probabilistic parameters affect the model in terms of the HIV and AIDS population over a period of time. We observed that there is a critical threshold parameter, R0, which determines the behavior of the model. If R0 ≤ 1, there is a unique disease-free equilibrium; if R0 < 1, the disease dies out; and if R0 > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable. We also show how a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach could be used as a supplement to forecast the numbers of reported HIV and AIDS cases. An approach using a Monte Carlo analysis is illustrated to understand the impact of model-based predictions in light of uncertain parameters on the spread of HIV. Finally, to examine this framework and demonstrate how it works, a case study was performed of reported HIV and AIDS cases from an annual data set in Malaysia, and then we compared how these approaches complement each other. We conclude that HIV disease in Malaysia shows epidemic behavior, especially in the context of understanding and predicting emerging cases of HIV and AIDS. PMID:26147199

  12. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach to Estimate AIDS after HIV Infection.

    PubMed

    Apenteng, Ofosuhene O; Ismail, Noor Azina

    2015-01-01

    The spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and the resulting acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a major health concern in many parts of the world, and mathematical models are commonly applied to understand the spread of the HIV epidemic. To understand the spread of HIV and AIDS cases and their parameters in a given population, it is necessary to develop a theoretical framework that takes into account realistic factors. The current study used this framework to assess the interaction between individuals who developed AIDS after HIV infection and individuals who did not develop AIDS after HIV infection (pre-AIDS). We first investigated how probabilistic parameters affect the model in terms of the HIV and AIDS population over a period of time. We observed that there is a critical threshold parameter, R0, which determines the behavior of the model. If R0 ≤ 1, there is a unique disease-free equilibrium; if R0 < 1, the disease dies out; and if R0 > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable. We also show how a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach could be used as a supplement to forecast the numbers of reported HIV and AIDS cases. An approach using a Monte Carlo analysis is illustrated to understand the impact of model-based predictions in light of uncertain parameters on the spread of HIV. Finally, to examine this framework and demonstrate how it works, a case study was performed of reported HIV and AIDS cases from an annual data set in Malaysia, and then we compared how these approaches complement each other. We conclude that HIV disease in Malaysia shows epidemic behavior, especially in the context of understanding and predicting emerging cases of HIV and AIDS. PMID:26147199

  13. Techniques for modeling the reliability of fault-tolerant systems with the Markov state-space approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butler, Ricky W.; Johnson, Sally C.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a step-by-step tutorial of the methods and the tools that were used for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant systems. The approach used in this paper is the Markov (or semi-Markov) state-space method. The paper is intended for design engineers with a basic understanding of computer architecture and fault tolerance, but little knowledge of reliability modeling. The representation of architectural features in mathematical models is emphasized. This paper does not present details of the mathematical solution of complex reliability models. Instead, it describes the use of several recently developed computer programs SURE, ASSIST, STEM, and PAWS that automate the generation and the solution of these models.

  14. A mathematical approach for evaluating Markov models in continuous time without discrete-event simulation.

    PubMed

    van Rosmalen, Joost; Toy, Mehlika; O'Mahony, James F

    2013-08-01

    Markov models are a simple and powerful tool for analyzing the health and economic effects of health care interventions. These models are usually evaluated in discrete time using cohort analysis. The use of discrete time assumes that changes in health states occur only at the end of a cycle period. Discrete-time Markov models only approximate the process of disease progression, as clinical events typically occur in continuous time. The approximation can yield biased cost-effectiveness estimates for Markov models with long cycle periods and if no half-cycle correction is made. The purpose of this article is to present an overview of methods for evaluating Markov models in continuous time. These methods use mathematical results from stochastic process theory and control theory. The methods are illustrated using an applied example on the cost-effectiveness of antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis B. The main result is a mathematical solution for the expected time spent in each state in a continuous-time Markov model. It is shown how this solution can account for age-dependent transition rates and discounting of costs and health effects, and how the concept of tunnel states can be used to account for transition rates that depend on the time spent in a state. The applied example shows that the continuous-time model yields more accurate results than the discrete-time model but does not require much computation time and is easily implemented. In conclusion, continuous-time Markov models are a feasible alternative to cohort analysis and can offer several theoretical and practical advantages. PMID:23715464

  15. Input estimation for drug discovery using optimal control and Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches.

    PubMed

    Trägårdh, Magnus; Chappell, Michael J; Ahnmark, Andrea; Lindén, Daniel; Evans, Neil D; Gennemark, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Input estimation is employed in cases where it is desirable to recover the form of an input function which cannot be directly observed and for which there is no model for the generating process. In pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modelling, input estimation in linear systems (deconvolution) is well established, while the nonlinear case is largely unexplored. In this paper, a rigorous definition of the input-estimation problem is given, and the choices involved in terms of modelling assumptions and estimation algorithms are discussed. In particular, the paper covers Maximum a Posteriori estimates using techniques from optimal control theory, and full Bayesian estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches. These techniques are implemented using the optimisation software CasADi, and applied to two example problems: one where the oral absorption rate and bioavailability of the drug eflornithine are estimated using pharmacokinetic data from rats, and one where energy intake is estimated from body-mass measurements of mice exposed to monoclonal antibodies targeting the fibroblast growth factor receptor (FGFR) 1c. The results from the analysis are used to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the methods used when applied to sparsely sampled data. The presented methods for optimal control are fast and robust, and can be recommended for use in drug discovery. The MCMC-based methods can have long running times and require more expertise from the user. The rigorous definition together with the illustrative examples and suggestions for software serve as a highly promising starting point for application of input-estimation methods to problems in drug discovery. PMID:26932466

  16. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach to Confirmatory Item Factor Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edwards, Michael C.

    2010-01-01

    Item factor analysis has a rich tradition in both the structural equation modeling and item response theory frameworks. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a novel combination of various Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation routines to estimate parameters of a wide variety of confirmatory item factor analysis models. Further, I show…

  17. Time Ordering in Frontal Lobe Patients: A Stochastic Model Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Magherini, Anna; Saetti, Maria Cristina; Berta, Emilia; Botti, Claudio; Faglioni, Pietro

    2005-01-01

    Frontal lobe patients reproduced a sequence of capital letters or abstract shapes. Immediate and delayed reproduction trials allowed the analysis of short- and long-term memory for time order by means of suitable Markov chain stochastic models. Patients were as proficient as healthy subjects on the immediate reproduction trial, thus showing spared…

  18. Transition dynamics of HIV disease in a cohort of African prostitutes: a Markov model approach.

    PubMed

    Nagelkerke, N J; Plummer, F A; Holton, D; Anzala, A O; Manji, F; Ngugi, E N; Moses, S

    1990-08-01

    The progression of HIV-related disease from infection to death is represented as a staged Markov model. Transitions between stages are considered reversible. The model is fitted to data from a cohort of African prostitutes by means of maximum likelihood. It appears that the progression to symptomatic disease (Centers for Disease Control stage IV) in this population is considerably more rapid than that reported from studies in Western countries. PMID:2175619

  19. Transition dynamics of HIV disease in a cohort of African prostitutes: a Markov model approach.

    PubMed

    Nagelkerke, N J; Plummer, F A; Holton, D; Anzala, A O; Manji, F; Ngugi, E N; Moses, S

    1990-08-01

    The progression of HIV-related disease from infection to death is represented as a staged Markov model. Transitions between stages are considered reversible. The model is fitted to data from a cohort of African prostitutes by means of maximum likelihood. It appears that the progression to symptomatic disease (Centers for Disease Control stage IV) in this population is considerably more rapid than that reported from studies in Western countries.

  20. Hidden Markov models and other machine learning approaches in computational molecular biology

    SciTech Connect

    Baldi, P.

    1995-12-31

    This tutorial was one of eight tutorials selected to be presented at the Third International Conference on Intelligent Systems for Molecular Biology which was held in the United Kingdom from July 16 to 19, 1995. Computational tools are increasingly needed to process the massive amounts of data, to organize and classify sequences, to detect weak similarities, to separate coding from non-coding regions, and reconstruct the underlying evolutionary history. The fundamental problem in machine learning is the same as in scientific reasoning in general, as well as statistical modeling: to come up with a good model for the data. In this tutorial four classes of models are reviewed. They are: Hidden Markov models; artificial Neural Networks; Belief Networks; and Stochastic Grammars. When dealing with DNA and protein primary sequences, Hidden Markov models are one of the most flexible and powerful alignments and data base searches. In this tutorial, attention is focused on the theory of Hidden Markov Models, and how to apply them to problems in molecular biology.

  1. Covariate adjustment of event histories estimated from Markov chains: the additive approach.

    PubMed

    Aalen, O O; Borgan, O; Fekjaer, H

    2001-12-01

    Markov chain models are frequently used for studying event histories that include transitions between several states. An empirical transition matrix for nonhomogeneous Markov chains has previously been developed, including a detailed statistical theory based on counting processes and martingales. In this article, we show how to estimate transition probabilities dependent on covariates. This technique may, e.g., be used for making estimates of individual prognosis in epidemiological or clinical studies. The covariates are included through nonparametric additive models on the transition intensities of the Markov chain. The additive model allows for estimation of covariate-dependent transition intensities, and again a detailed theory exists based on counting processes. The martingale setting now allows for a very natural combination of the empirical transition matrix and the additive model, resulting in estimates that can be expressed as stochastic integrals, and hence their properties are easily evaluated. Two medical examples will be given. In the first example, we study how the lung cancer mortality of uranium miners depends on smoking and radon exposure. In the second example, we study how the probability of being in response depends on patient group and prophylactic treatment for leukemia patients who have had a bone marrow transplantation. A program in R and S-PLUS that can carry out the analyses described here has been developed and is freely available on the Internet. PMID:11764270

  2. Probabilistic approach of water residence time and connectivity using Markov chains with application to tidal embayments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacher, C.; Filgueira, R.; Guyondet, T.

    2016-01-01

    Markov chain analysis was recently proposed to assess the time scales and preferential pathways into biological or physical networks by computing residence time, first passage time, rates of transfer between nodes and number of passages in a node. We propose to adapt an algorithm already published for simple systems to physical systems described with a high resolution hydrodynamic model. The method is applied to bays and estuaries on the Eastern Coast of Canada for their interest in shellfish aquaculture. Current velocities have been computed by using a 2 dimensional grid of elements and circulation patterns were summarized by averaging Eulerian flows between adjacent elements. Flows and volumes allow computing probabilities of transition between elements and to assess the average time needed by virtual particles to move from one element to another, the rate of transfer between two elements, and the average residence time of each system. We also combined transfer rates and times to assess the main pathways of virtual particles released in farmed areas and the potential influence of farmed areas on other areas. We suggest that Markov chain is complementary to other sets of ecological indicators proposed to analyse the interactions between farmed areas - e.g., depletion index, carrying capacity assessment. Markov chain has several advantages with respect to the estimation of connectivity between pair of sites. It makes possible to estimate transfer rates and times at once in a very quick and efficient way, without the need to perform long term simulations of particle or tracer concentration.

  3. Choosing the Order of Deceased Donor and Living Donor Kidney Transplantation in Pediatric Recipients: A Markov Decision Process Model

    PubMed Central

    Van Arendonk, Kyle J.; Chow, Eric K.H.; James, Nathan T.; Orandi, Babak J.; Ellison, Trevor A.; Smith, Jodi M.; Colombani, Paul M.; Segev, Dorry L.

    2014-01-01

    Background Most pediatric kidney transplant recipients eventually require retransplantation, and the most advantageous timing strategy regarding deceased and living donor transplantation in candidates with only one living donor remains unclear. Methods A patient-oriented Markov decision process model was designed to compare, for a given patient with one living donor, living-donor-first followed if necessary by deceased donor retransplantation versus deceased-donor-first followed if necessary by living donor (if still able to donate) or deceased donor (if not) retransplantation. Based on Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data, the model was designed to account for waitlist, graft, and patient survival, sensitization, increased risk of graft failure seen during late adolescence, and differential deceased donor waiting times based upon pediatric-priority allocation policies. Based on national cohort data, the model was also designed to account for aging or disease development leading to ineligibility of the living donor over time. Results Given a set of candidate and living donor characteristics, the Markov model provides the expected patient survival over a time horizon of 20 years. For the most highly sensitized patients (PRA>80%), a deceased-donor-first strategy was advantageous, but for all other patients (PRA<80%), a living-donor-first strategy was recommended. Conclusions This Markov model illustrates how patients, families, and providers can be provided information and predictions regarding the most advantageous use of deceased donor versus living donor transplantation for pediatric recipients. PMID:25594552

  4. Memetic Approaches for Optimizing Hidden Markov Models: A Case Study in Time Series Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bui, Lam Thu; Barlow, Michael

    We propose a methodology for employing memetics (local search) within the framework of evolutionary algorithms to optimize parameters of hidden markov models. With this proposal, the rate and frequency of using local search are automatically changed over time either at a population or individual level. At the population level, we allow the rate of using local search to decay over time to zero (at the final generation). At the individual level, each individual is equipped with information of when it will do local search and for how long. This information evolves over time alongside the main elements of the chromosome representing the individual.

  5. A Markov random field approach for modeling spatio-temporal evolution of microstructures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acar, Pinar; Sundararaghavan, Veera

    2016-10-01

    The following problem is addressed: ‘Can one synthesize microstructure evolution over a large area given experimental movies measured over smaller regions?’ Our input is a movie of microstructure evolution over a small sample window. A Markov random field (MRF) algorithm is developed that uses this data to estimate the evolution of microstructure over a larger region. Unlike the standard microstructure reconstruction problem based on stationary images, the present algorithm is also able to reconstruct time-evolving phenomena such as grain growth. Such an algorithm would decrease the cost of full-scale microstructure measurements by coupling mathematical estimation with targeted small-scale spatiotemporal measurements. The grain size, shape and orientation distribution statistics of synthesized polycrystalline microstructures at different times are compared with the original movie to verify the method.

  6. The Influence of Hydroxylation on Maintaining CpG Methylation Patterns: A Hidden Markov Model Approach

    PubMed Central

    Ficz, Gabriella; Wolf, Verena; Walter, Jörn

    2016-01-01

    DNA methylation and demethylation are opposing processes that when in balance create stable patterns of epigenetic memory. The control of DNA methylation pattern formation by replication dependent and independent demethylation processes has been suggested to be influenced by Tet mediated oxidation of 5mC. Several alternative mechanisms have been proposed suggesting that 5hmC influences either replication dependent maintenance of DNA methylation or replication independent processes of active demethylation. Using high resolution hairpin oxidative bisulfite sequencing data, we precisely determine the amount of 5mC and 5hmC and model the contribution of 5hmC to processes of demethylation in mouse ESCs. We develop an extended hidden Markov model capable of accurately describing the regional contribution of 5hmC to demethylation dynamics. Our analysis shows that 5hmC has a strong impact on replication dependent demethylation, mainly by impairing methylation maintenance. PMID:27224554

  7. Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation for Bayesian approach based on right censored data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, Alomari Mohammed

    2014-06-01

    This study consider the estimation of Maximum Likelihood Estimator and the Bayesian Estimator using Jeffreys prior and extension of Jeffreys prior information of the Weibull distribution with right censored data. The shape parametric estimation by maximum likelihood method is not available in closed forms, although it can be solved by numerical methods. Moreover, the Bayesian estimates of the parameters, the survival and hazard functions can not be solved analytically. Hence Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used, where the full conditional distribution for the scale and shape parameters are obtained via Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm followed by the survival and hazard functions estimates. The methods are compared to maximum likelihood counterparts and the comparisons are made with respect to the Mean Square Error (MSE) and absolute bias to determine the best method in parameters, the survival and the hazard functions.

  8. The Influence of Hydroxylation on Maintaining CpG Methylation Patterns: A Hidden Markov Model Approach.

    PubMed

    Giehr, Pascal; Kyriakopoulos, Charalampos; Ficz, Gabriella; Wolf, Verena; Walter, Jörn

    2016-05-01

    DNA methylation and demethylation are opposing processes that when in balance create stable patterns of epigenetic memory. The control of DNA methylation pattern formation by replication dependent and independent demethylation processes has been suggested to be influenced by Tet mediated oxidation of 5mC. Several alternative mechanisms have been proposed suggesting that 5hmC influences either replication dependent maintenance of DNA methylation or replication independent processes of active demethylation. Using high resolution hairpin oxidative bisulfite sequencing data, we precisely determine the amount of 5mC and 5hmC and model the contribution of 5hmC to processes of demethylation in mouse ESCs. We develop an extended hidden Markov model capable of accurately describing the regional contribution of 5hmC to demethylation dynamics. Our analysis shows that 5hmC has a strong impact on replication dependent demethylation, mainly by impairing methylation maintenance. PMID:27224554

  9. Hidden Markov model approach to skill learning and its application to telerobotics

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, J. . Robotics Inst. Univ. of Akron, OH . Dept. of Electrical Engineering); Xu, Y. . Robotics Inst.); Chen, C.S. . Dept. of Electrical Engineering)

    1994-10-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss the problem of how human skill can be represented as a parametric model using a hidden Markov model (HMM), and how an HMM-based skill model can be used to learn human skill. HMM is feasible to characterize a doubly stochastic process--measurable action and immeasurable mental states--that is involved in the skill learning. The authors formulated the learning problem as a multidimensional HMM and developed a testbed for a variety of skill learning applications. Based on ''the most likely performance'' criterion, the best action sequence can be selected from all previously measured action data by modeling the skill as an HMM. The proposed method has been implemented in the teleoperation control of a space station robot system, and some important implementation issues have been discussed. The method allows a robot to learn human skill certain tasks and to improve motion performance.

  10. CIGALEMC: GALAXY PARAMETER ESTIMATION USING A MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO APPROACH WITH CIGALE

    SciTech Connect

    Serra, Paolo; Amblard, Alexandre; Temi, Pasquale; Im, Stephen; Noll, Stefan

    2011-10-10

    We introduce a fast Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) exploration of the astrophysical parameter space using a modified version of the publicly available code Code Investigating GALaxy Emission (CIGALE). The original CIGALE builds a grid of theoretical spectral energy distribution (SED) models and fits to photometric fluxes from ultraviolet to infrared to put constraints on parameters related to both formation and evolution of galaxies. Such a grid-based method can lead to a long and challenging parameter extraction since the computation time increases exponentially with the number of parameters considered and results can be dependent on the density of sampling points, which must be chosen in advance for each parameter. MCMC methods, on the other hand, scale approximately linearly with the number of parameters, allowing a faster and more accurate exploration of the parameter space by using a smaller number of efficiently chosen samples. We test our MCMC version of the code CIGALE (called CIGALEMC) with simulated data. After checking the ability of the code to retrieve the input parameters used to build the mock sample, we fit theoretical SEDs to real data from the well-known and -studied Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxy Survey sample. We discuss constraints on the parameters and show the advantages of our MCMC sampling method in terms of accuracy of the results and optimization of CPU time.

  11. Link between unemployment and crime in the US: a Markov-Switching approach.

    PubMed

    Fallahi, Firouz; Rodríguez, Gabriel

    2014-05-01

    This study has two goals. The first is to use Markov Switching models to identify and analyze the cycles in the unemployment rate and four different types of property-related criminal activities in the US. The second is to apply the nonparametric concordance index of Harding and Pagan (2006) to determine the correlation between the cycles of unemployment rate and property crimes. Findings show that there is a positive but insignificant relationship between the unemployment rate, burglary, larceny, and robbery. However, the unemployment rate has a significant and negative (i.e., a counter-cyclical) relationship with motor-vehicle theft. Therefore, more motor-vehicle thefts occur during economic expansions relative to contractions. Next, we divide the sample into three different subsamples to examine the consistency of the findings. The results show that the co-movements between the unemployment rate and property crimes during recession periods are much weaker, when compared with that of the normal periods of the US economy. PMID:24576625

  12. Link between unemployment and crime in the US: a Markov-Switching approach.

    PubMed

    Fallahi, Firouz; Rodríguez, Gabriel

    2014-05-01

    This study has two goals. The first is to use Markov Switching models to identify and analyze the cycles in the unemployment rate and four different types of property-related criminal activities in the US. The second is to apply the nonparametric concordance index of Harding and Pagan (2006) to determine the correlation between the cycles of unemployment rate and property crimes. Findings show that there is a positive but insignificant relationship between the unemployment rate, burglary, larceny, and robbery. However, the unemployment rate has a significant and negative (i.e., a counter-cyclical) relationship with motor-vehicle theft. Therefore, more motor-vehicle thefts occur during economic expansions relative to contractions. Next, we divide the sample into three different subsamples to examine the consistency of the findings. The results show that the co-movements between the unemployment rate and property crimes during recession periods are much weaker, when compared with that of the normal periods of the US economy.

  13. Cosmological constraints on generalized Chaplygin gas model: Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach

    SciTech Connect

    Xu, Lixin; Lu, Jianbo E-mail: lvjianbo819@163.com

    2010-03-01

    We use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to investigate a global constraints on the generalized Chaplygin gas (GCG) model as the unification of dark matter and dark energy from the latest observational data: the Constitution dataset of type supernovae Ia (SNIa), the observational Hubble data (OHD), the cluster X-ray gas mass fraction, the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO), and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. In a non-flat universe, the constraint results for GCG model are, Ω{sub b}h{sup 2} = 0.0235{sup +0.0021}{sub −0.0018} (1σ) {sup +0.0028}{sub −0.0022} (2σ), Ω{sub k} = 0.0035{sup +0.0172}{sub −0.0182} (1σ) {sup +0.0226}{sub −0.0204} (2σ), A{sub s} = 0.753{sup +0.037}{sub −0.035} (1σ) {sup +0.045}{sub −0.044} (2σ), α = 0.043{sup +0.102}{sub −0.106} (1σ) {sup +0.134}{sub −0.117} (2σ), and H{sub 0} = 70.00{sup +3.25}{sub −2.92} (1σ) {sup +3.77}{sub −3.67} (2σ), which is more stringent than the previous results for constraint on GCG model parameters. Furthermore, according to the information criterion, it seems that the current observations much support ΛCDM model relative to the GCG model.

  14. Multi-Resolution Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo Approach for System Identification with an Application to Finite-Element Models

    SciTech Connect

    Johannesson, G; Glaser, R E; Lee, C L; Nitao, J J; Hanley, W G

    2005-02-07

    Estimating unknown system configurations/parameters by combining system knowledge gained from a computer simulation model on one hand and from observed data on the other hand is challenging. An example of such inverse problem is detecting and localizing potential flaws or changes in a structure by using a finite-element model and measured vibration/displacement data. We propose a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian methodology. This approach does not only yield a single best-guess solution, but a posterior probability distribution over the parameter space. In addition, the Bayesian approach provides a natural framework to accommodate prior knowledge. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is proposed to generate samples from the posterior distribution (an ensemble of likely system configurations given the data). The MCMC procedure proposed explores the parameter space at different resolutions (scales), resulting in a more robust and efficient procedure. The large-scale exploration steps are carried out using coarser-resolution finite-element models, yielding a considerable decrease in computational time, which can be a crucial for large finite-element models. An application is given using synthetic displacement data from a simple cantilever beam with MCMC exploration carried out at three different resolutions.

  15. Application of hidden Markov random field approach for quantification of perfusion/diffusion mismatch in acute ischemic stroke.

    PubMed

    Dwyer, Michael G; Bergsland, Niels; Saluste, Erik; Sharma, Jitendra; Jaisani, Zeenat; Durfee, Jacqueline; Abdelrahman, Nadir; Minagar, Alireza; Hoque, Romy; Munschauer, Frederick E; Zivadinov, Robert

    2008-10-01

    The perfusion/diffusion 'mismatch model' in acute ischemic stroke provides the potential to more accurately understand the consequences of thrombolytic therapy on an individual patient basis. Few methods exist to quantify mismatch extent (ischemic penumbra) and none have shown a robust ability to predict infarcted tissue outcome. Hidden Markov random field (HMRF) approaches have been used successfully in many other applications. The aim of the study was to develop a method for rapid and reliable identification and quantification of perfusion/diffusion mismatch using an HMRF approach. An HMRF model was used in combination with automated contralateral identification to segment normal tissue from non-infarcted tissue with perfusion abnormality. The infarct was used as a seed point to initialize segmentation, along with the contralateral mirror tissue. The two seeds were then allowed to compete for ownership of all unclassified tissue. In addition, a novel method was presented for quantifying tissue salvageability by weighting the volume with the degree of hypoperfusion, allowing the penumbra voxels to contribute unequal potential damage estimates. Simulated and in vivo datasets were processed and compared with results from a conventional thresholding approach. Both simulated and in vivo experiments demonstrated a dramatic improvement in accuracy with the proposed technique. For the simulated dataset, the mean absolute error decreased from 171.9% with conventional thresholding to 2.9% for the delay-weighted HMRF approach. For the in vivo dataset, the mean absolute error decreased from 564.6% for thresholding to 34.2% for the delay-weighted HMRF approach. The described method represents a significant improvement over thresholding techniques.

  16. A Markov random field-based approach for joint estimation of differentially expressed genes in mouse transcriptome data.

    PubMed

    Lin, Zhixiang; Li, Mingfeng; Sestan, Nenad; Zhao, Hongyu

    2016-04-01

    The statistical methodology developed in this study was motivated by our interest in studying neurodevelopment using the mouse brain RNA-Seq data set, where gene expression levels were measured in multiple layers in the somatosensory cortex across time in both female and male samples. We aim to identify differentially expressed genes between adjacent time points, which may provide insights on the dynamics of brain development. Because of the extremely small sample size (one male and female at each time point), simple marginal analysis may be underpowered. We propose a Markov random field (MRF)-based approach to capitalizing on the between layers similarity, temporal dependency and the similarity between sex. The model parameters are estimated by an efficient EM algorithm with mean field-like approximation. Simulation results and real data analysis suggest that the proposed model improves the power to detect differentially expressed genes than simple marginal analysis. Our method also reveals biologically interesting results in the mouse brain RNA-Seq data set.

  17. A hidden Markov model approach to analyze longitudinal ternary outcomes when some observed states are possibly misclassified.

    PubMed

    Benoit, Julia S; Chan, Wenyaw; Luo, Sheng; Yeh, Hung-Wen; Doody, Rachelle

    2016-04-30

    Understanding the dynamic disease process is vital in early detection, diagnosis, and measuring progression. Continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) methods have been used to estimate state-change intensities but challenges arise when stages are potentially misclassified. We present an analytical likelihood approach where the hidden state is modeled as a three-state CTMC model allowing for some observed states to be possibly misclassified. Covariate effects of the hidden process and misclassification probabilities of the hidden state are estimated without information from a 'gold standard' as comparison. Parameter estimates are obtained using a modified expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, and identifiability of CTMC estimation is addressed. Simulation studies and an application studying Alzheimer's disease caregiver stress-levels are presented. The method was highly sensitive to detecting true misclassification and did not falsely identify error in the absence of misclassification. In conclusion, we have developed a robust longitudinal method for analyzing categorical outcome data when classification of disease severity stage is uncertain and the purpose is to study the process' transition behavior without a gold standard. PMID:26782946

  18. Performance of Markov Chain–Monte Carlo Approaches for Mapping Genes in Oligogenic Models with an Unknown Number of Loci

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jae K.; Thomas, Duncan C.

    2000-01-01

    Markov chain–Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques for multipoint mapping of quantitative trait loci have been developed on nuclear-family and extended-pedigree data. These methods are based on repeated sampling—peeling and gene dropping of genotype vectors and random sampling of each of the model parameters from their full conditional distributions, given phenotypes, markers, and other model parameters. We further refine such approaches by improving the efficiency of the marker haplotype-updating algorithm and by adopting a new proposal for adding loci. Incorporating these refinements, we have performed an extensive simulation study on simulated nuclear-family data, varying the number of trait loci, family size, displacement, and other segregation parameters. Our simulation studies show that our MCMC algorithm identifies the locations of the true trait loci and estimates their segregation parameters well—provided that the total number of sibship pairs in the pedigree data is reasonably large, heritability of each individual trait locus is not too low, and the loci are not too close together. Our MCMC algorithm was shown to be significantly more efficient than LOKI (Heath 1997) in our simulation study using nuclear-family data. PMID:11032787

  19. A Markov random field approach for topology-preserving registration: application to object-based tomographic image interpolation.

    PubMed

    Cordero-Grande, Lucilio; Vegas-Sánchez-Ferrero, Gonzalo; Casaseca-de-la-Higuera, Pablo; Alberola-López, Carlos

    2012-04-01

    This paper proposes a topology-preserving multiresolution elastic registration method based on a discrete Markov random field of deformations and a block-matching procedure. The method is applied to the object-based interpolation of tomographic slices. For that purpose, the fidelity of a given deformation to the data is established by a block-matching strategy based on intensity- and gradient-related features, the smoothness of the transformation is favored by an appropriate prior on the field, and the deformation is guaranteed to maintain the topology by imposing some hard constraints on the local configurations of the field. The resulting deformation is defined as the maximum a posteriori configuration. Additionally, the relative influence of the fidelity and smoothness terms is weighted by the unsupervised estimation of the field parameters. In order to obtain an unbiased interpolation result, the registration is performed both in the forward and backward directions, and the resulting transformations are combined by using the local information content of the deformation. The method is applied to magnetic resonance and computed tomography acquisitions of the brain and the torso. Quantitative comparisons offer an overall improvement in performance with respect to related works in the literature. Additionally, the application of the interpolation method to cardiac magnetic resonance images has shown that the removal of any of the main components of the algorithm results in a decrease in performance which has proven to be statistically significant.

  20. Serial Order: A Parallel Distributed Processing Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jordan, Michael I.

    Human behavior shows a variety of serially ordered action sequences. This paper presents a theory of serial order which describes how sequences of actions might be learned and performed. In this theory, parallel interactions across time (coarticulation) and parallel interactions across space (dual-task interference) are viewed as two aspects of a…

  1. Markov blanket-based approach for learning multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers: an application to predict the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39).

    PubMed

    Borchani, Hanen; Bielza, Concha; Martı Nez-Martı N, Pablo; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2012-12-01

    Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers (MBCs) are probabilistic graphical models recently proposed to deal with multi-dimensional classification problems, where each instance in the data set has to be assigned to more than one class variable. In this paper, we propose a Markov blanket-based approach for learning MBCs from data. Basically, it consists of determining the Markov blanket around each class variable using the HITON algorithm, then specifying the directionality over the MBC subgraphs. Our approach is applied to the prediction problem of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39) in order to estimate the health-related quality of life of Parkinson's patients. Fivefold cross-validation experiments were carried out on randomly generated synthetic data sets, Yeast data set, as well as on a real-world Parkinson's disease data set containing 488 patients. The experimental study, including comparison with additional Bayesian network-based approaches, back propagation for multi-label learning, multi-label k-nearest neighbor, multinomial logistic regression, ordinary least squares, and censored least absolute deviations, shows encouraging results in terms of predictive accuracy as well as the identification of dependence relationships among class and feature variables.

  2. Markov blanket-based approach for learning multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers: an application to predict the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39).

    PubMed

    Borchani, Hanen; Bielza, Concha; Martı Nez-Martı N, Pablo; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2012-12-01

    Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers (MBCs) are probabilistic graphical models recently proposed to deal with multi-dimensional classification problems, where each instance in the data set has to be assigned to more than one class variable. In this paper, we propose a Markov blanket-based approach for learning MBCs from data. Basically, it consists of determining the Markov blanket around each class variable using the HITON algorithm, then specifying the directionality over the MBC subgraphs. Our approach is applied to the prediction problem of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39) in order to estimate the health-related quality of life of Parkinson's patients. Fivefold cross-validation experiments were carried out on randomly generated synthetic data sets, Yeast data set, as well as on a real-world Parkinson's disease data set containing 488 patients. The experimental study, including comparison with additional Bayesian network-based approaches, back propagation for multi-label learning, multi-label k-nearest neighbor, multinomial logistic regression, ordinary least squares, and censored least absolute deviations, shows encouraging results in terms of predictive accuracy as well as the identification of dependence relationships among class and feature variables. PMID:22897950

  3. Relaxation times of spin states of all ranks and orders of quadrupolar nuclei estimated from NMR z-spectra: Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis applied to 7Li+ and 23Na+ in stretched hydrogels.

    PubMed

    Kuchel, Philip W; Naumann, Christoph; Puckeridge, Max; Chapman, Bogdan E; Szekely, David

    2011-09-01

    The NMR z-spectra of 7Li+ and 23Na+ in stretched hydrogels contain five minima, or critical values, with a sharp "dagger" on the central dip. The mathematical representation of such z-spectra from spin-3/2 nuclei contains nine distinct (the total is 15 but there is redundancy of the ±order-numbers) relaxation rate constants that are unique for each of the spin states, up to rank 3, order 3. We present an approach to multiple-parameter-value estimation that exploits the high level of separability of the effects of each of the relaxation rate constants on the features of the z-spectrum. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is computationally demanding but it yielded statistically robust estimates (low coefficients of variation) of the parameter values. We describe the implementation of the MCMC analysis (in the present context) and posit that it can obviate the need for using multiple-quantum filtered RF-pulse sequences to estimate all relaxation rate constants/times under experimentally favorable, but readily achievable, circumstances.

  4. A Markov regression random-effects model for remission of functional disability in patients following a first stroke: a Bayesian approach.

    PubMed

    Pan, Shin-Liang; Wu, Hui-Min; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Chen, Tony Hsiu-Hsi

    2007-12-20

    Few attempts have been made to model the dynamics of stroke-related disability. It is possible though, using panel data and multi-state Markov regression models that incorporate measured covariates and latent variables (random effects). This study aimed to model a series of functional transitions (following a first stroke) using a three-state Markov model with or without considering random effects. Several proportional hazards parameterizations were considered. A Bayesian approach that utilizes the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Gibbs sampling functionality of WinBUGS (a Windows-based Bayesian software package) was developed to generate the marginal posterior distributions of the various transition parameters (e.g. the transition rates and transition probabilities). Model building and comparisons was guided by reference to the deviance information criteria (DIC). Of the four proportional hazards models considered, exponential regression was preferred because it led to the smallest deviances. Adding random effects further improved the model fit. Of the covariates considered, only age, infarct size, and baseline functional status were significant. By using our final model we were able to make individual predictions about functional recovery in stroke patients. PMID:17676712

  5. Extended GT-STAF information indices based on Markov approximation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barigye, Stephen J.; Marrero-Ponce, Yovani; Alfonso-Reguera, Vitalio; Pérez-Giménez, Facundo

    2013-05-01

    A series of novel information theory-based molecular parameters derived from the insight of a molecular structure as a chemical communication system were recently presented and usefully employed in QSAR/QSPRs (J. Comp. Chem, 2013, 34, 259; SAR and QSAR in Environ. Res. 2013, 24). This approach permitted the application of Shannon's source and channel coding entropic measures to a chemical information source comprised of molecular 'fragments', using the zero-order Markov approximation model (atom-based approach). This report covers the theoretical aspects of the extensions of this approach to higher-order models, introducing the first, second and generalized-order Markov approximation models.

  6. A mathematical modelling approach to one-day cricket batting orders.

    PubMed

    Bukiet, Bruce; Ovens, Matthews

    2006-01-01

    While scoring strategies and player performance in cricket have been studied, there has been little published work about the influence of batting order with respect to One-Day cricket. We apply a mathematical modelling approach to compute efficiently the expected performance (runs distribution) of a cricket batting order in an innings. Among other applications, our method enables one to solve for the probability of one team beating another or to find the optimal batting order for a set of 11 players. The influence of defence and bowling ability can be taken into account in a straightforward manner. In this presentation, we outline how we develop our Markov Chain approach to studying the progress of runs for a batting order of non- identical players along the lines of work in baseball modelling by Bukiet et al., 1997. We describe the issues that arise in applying such methods to cricket, discuss ideas for addressing these difficulties and note limitations on modelling batting order for One-Day cricket. By performing our analysis on a selected subset of the possible batting orders, we apply the model to quantify the influence of batting order in a game of One Day cricket using available real-world data for current players. Key PointsBatting order does effect the expected runs distribution in one-day cricket.One-day cricket has fewer data points than baseball, thus extreme values have greater effect on estimated probabilities.Dismissals rare and probabilities very small by comparison to baseball.Probability distribution for lower order batsmen is potentially skewed due to increased risk taking.Full enumeration of all possible line-ups is impractical using a single average computer.

  7. Markov Analysis of Sleep Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, J. W.; Lee, J.-S.; Robinson, P. A.; Jeong, D.-U.

    2009-05-01

    A new approach, based on a Markov transition matrix, is proposed to explain frequent sleep and wake transitions during sleep. The matrix is determined by analyzing hypnograms of 113 obstructive sleep apnea patients. Our approach shows that the statistics of sleep can be constructed via a single Markov process and that durations of all states have modified exponential distributions, in contrast to recent reports of a scale-free form for the wake stage and an exponential form for the sleep stage. Hypnograms of the same subjects, but treated with Continuous Positive Airway Pressure, are analyzed and compared quantitatively with the pretreatment ones, suggesting potential clinical applications.

  8. An approach for contour detection of human kidneys from ultrasound images using Markov random fields and active contours.

    PubMed

    Martín-Fernández, Marcos; Alberola-López, Carlos

    2005-02-01

    In this paper, a novel method for the boundary detection of human kidneys from three dimensional (3D) ultrasound (US) is proposed. The inherent difficulty of interpretation of such images, even by a trained expert, makes the problem unsuitable for classical methods. The method here proposed finds the kidney contours in each slice. It is a probabilistic Bayesian method. The prior defines a Markov field of deformations and imposes the restriction of contour smoothness. The likelihood function imposes a probabilistic behavior to the data, conditioned to the contour position. This second function, which is also Markov, uses an empirical model of distribution of the echographical data and a function of the gradient of the data. The model finally includes, as a volumetric extension of the prior, a term that forces smoothness along the depth coordinate. The experiments that have been carried out on echographies from real patients validate the model here proposed. A sensitivity analysis of the model parameters has also been carried out.

  9. Input-Output Approach to Control for Fuzzy Markov Jump Systems With Time-Varying Delays and Uncertain Packet Dropout Rate.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Lixian; Ning, Zepeng; Shi, Peng

    2015-11-01

    This paper is concerned with H∞ control problem for a class of discrete-time Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy Markov jump systems with time-varying delays under unreliable communication links. It is assumed that the data transmission between the plant and the controller are subject to randomly occurred packet dropouts satisfying Bernoulli distribution and the dropout rate is uncertain. Based on a fuzzy-basis-dependent and mode-dependent Lyapunov function, the existence conditions of the desired H∞ state-feedback controllers are derived by employing the scaled small gain theorem such that the closed-loop system is stochastically stable and achieves a guaranteed H∞ performance. The gains of the controllers are constructed by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities. Finally, a practical example of robot arm is provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed approach.

  10. A modulation wave approach to the order hidden in disorder

    PubMed Central

    Withers, Ray

    2015-01-01

    The usefulness of a modulation wave approach to understanding and interpreting the highly structured continuous diffuse intensity distributions characteristic of the reciprocal spaces of the very large family of inherently flexible materials which exhibit ordered ‘disorder’ is pointed out. It is shown that both longer range order and truly short-range order are simultaneously encoded in highly structured diffuse intensity distributions. The long-range ordered crystal chemical rules giving rise to such diffuse distributions are highlighted, along with the existence and usefulness of systematic extinction conditions in these types of structured diffuse distributions. PMID:25610629

  11. A Bayesian 3D data fusion and unsupervised joint segmentation approach for stochastic geological modelling using Hidden Markov random fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Hui; Wellmann, Florian

    2016-04-01

    It is generally accepted that 3D geological models inferred from observed data will contain a certain amount of uncertainties. The uncertainty quantification and stochastic sampling methods are essential for gaining the insight into the geological variability of subsurface structures. In the community of deterministic or traditional modelling techniques, classical geo-statistical methods using boreholes (hard data sets) are still most widely accepted although suffering certain drawbacks. Modern geophysical measurements provide us regional data sets in 2D or 3D spaces either directly from sensors or indirectly from inverse problem solving using observed signal (soft data sets). We propose a stochastic modelling framework to extract subsurface heterogeneity from multiple and complementary types of data. In the presented work, subsurface heterogeneity is considered as the "hidden link" among multiple spatial data sets as well as inversion results. Hidden Markov random field models are employed to perform 3D segmentation which is the representation of the "hidden link". Finite Gaussian mixture models are adopted to characterize the statistical parameters of the multiple data sets. The uncertainties are quantified via a Gibbs sampling process under the Bayesian inferential framework. The proposed modelling framework is validated using two numerical examples. The model behavior and convergence are also well examined. It is shown that the presented stochastic modelling framework is a promising tool for the 3D data fusion in the communities of geological modelling and geophysics.

  12. A model-based approach to gene clustering with missing observation reconstruction in a Markov random field framework.

    PubMed

    Blanchet, Juliette; Vignes, Matthieu

    2009-03-01

    The different measurement techniques that interrogate biological systems provide means for monitoring the behavior of virtually all cell components at different scales and from complementary angles. However, data generated in these experiments are difficult to interpret. A first difficulty arises from high-dimensionality and inherent noise of such data. Organizing them into meaningful groups is then highly desirable to improve our knowledge of biological mechanisms. A more accurate picture can be obtained when accounting for dependencies between components (e.g., genes) under study. A second difficulty arises from the fact that biological experiments often produce missing values. When it is not ignored, the latter issue has been solved by imputing the expression matrix prior to applying traditional analysis methods. Although helpful, this practice can lead to unsound results. We propose in this paper a statistical methodology that integrates individual dependencies in a missing data framework. More explicitly, we present a clustering algorithm dealing with incomplete data in a Hidden Markov Random Field context. This tackles the missing value issue in a probabilistic framework and still allows us to reconstruct missing observations a posteriori without imposing any pre-processing of the data. Experiments on synthetic data validate the gain in using our method, and analysis of real biological data shows its potential to extract biological knowledge.

  13. New Markov Model Approaches to Deciphering Microbial Genome Function and Evolution: Comparative Genomics of Laterally Transferred Genes

    SciTech Connect

    Borodovsky, M.

    2013-04-11

    Algorithmic methods for gene prediction have been developed and successfully applied to many different prokaryotic genome sequences. As the set of genes in a particular genome is not homogeneous with respect to DNA sequence composition features, the GeneMark.hmm program utilizes two Markov models representing distinct classes of protein coding genes denoted "typical" and "atypical". Atypical genes are those whose DNA features deviate significantly from those classified as typical and they represent approximately 10% of any given genome. In addition to the inherent interest of more accurately predicting genes, the atypical status of these genes may also reflect their separate evolutionary ancestry from other genes in that genome. We hypothesize that atypical genes are largely comprised of those genes that have been relatively recently acquired through lateral gene transfer (LGT). If so, what fraction of atypical genes are such bona fide LGTs? We have made atypical gene predictions for all fully completed prokaryotic genomes; we have been able to compare these results to other "surrogate" methods of LGT prediction.

  14. Improving on hidden Markov models: An articulatorily constrained, maximum likelihood approach to speech recognition and speech coding

    SciTech Connect

    Hogden, J.

    1996-11-05

    The goal of the proposed research is to test a statistical model of speech recognition that incorporates the knowledge that speech is produced by relatively slow motions of the tongue, lips, and other speech articulators. This model is called Maximum Likelihood Continuity Mapping (Malcom). Many speech researchers believe that by using constraints imposed by articulator motions, we can improve or replace the current hidden Markov model based speech recognition algorithms. Unfortunately, previous efforts to incorporate information about articulation into speech recognition algorithms have suffered because (1) slight inaccuracies in our knowledge or the formulation of our knowledge about articulation may decrease recognition performance, (2) small changes in the assumptions underlying models of speech production can lead to large changes in the speech derived from the models, and (3) collecting measurements of human articulator positions in sufficient quantity for training a speech recognition algorithm is still impractical. The most interesting (and in fact, unique) quality of Malcom is that, even though Malcom makes use of a mapping between acoustics and articulation, Malcom can be trained to recognize speech using only acoustic data. By learning the mapping between acoustics and articulation using only acoustic data, Malcom avoids the difficulties involved in collecting articulator position measurements and does not require an articulatory synthesizer model to estimate the mapping between vocal tract shapes and speech acoustics. Preliminary experiments that demonstrate that Malcom can learn the mapping between acoustics and articulation are discussed. Potential applications of Malcom aside from speech recognition are also discussed. Finally, specific deliverables resulting from the proposed research are described.

  15. A more efficient approach to parallel-tempered Markov-chain Monte Carlo for the highly structured posteriors of gravitational-wave signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farr, Benjamin; Kalogera, Vicky; Luijten, Erik

    2014-07-01

    We introduce a new Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach designed for the efficient sampling of highly correlated and multimodal posteriors. Parallel tempering, though effective, is a costly technique for sampling such posteriors. Our approach minimizes the use of parallel tempering, only applying it for a short time to build a proposal distribution that is based upon estimation of the kernel density and tuned to the target posterior. This proposal makes subsequent use of parallel tempering unnecessary, allowing all chains to be cooled to sample the target distribution. Gains in efficiency are found to increase with increasing posterior complexity, ranging from tens of percent in the simplest cases to over a factor of 10 for the more complex cases. Our approach is particularly useful in the context of parameter estimation of gravitational-wave signals measured by ground-based detectors, which is currently done through Bayesian inference with MCMC, one of the leading sampling methods. Posteriors for these signals are typically multimodal with strong nonlinear correlations, making sampling difficult. As we enter the advanced-detector era, improved sensitivities and wider bandwidths will drastically increase the computational cost of analyses, demanding more efficient search algorithms to meet these challenges.

  16. Anatomy Ontology Matching Using Markov Logic Networks

    PubMed Central

    Li, Chunhua; Zhao, Pengpeng; Wu, Jian; Cui, Zhiming

    2016-01-01

    The anatomy of model species is described in ontologies, which are used to standardize the annotations of experimental data, such as gene expression patterns. To compare such data between species, we need to establish relationships between ontologies describing different species. Ontology matching is a kind of solutions to find semantic correspondences between entities of different ontologies. Markov logic networks which unify probabilistic graphical model and first-order logic provide an excellent framework for ontology matching. We combine several different matching strategies through first-order logic formulas according to the structure of anatomy ontologies. Experiments on the adult mouse anatomy and the human anatomy have demonstrated the effectiveness of proposed approach in terms of the quality of result alignment. PMID:27382498

  17. Application and Evaluation of a Snowmelt Runoff Model in the Tamor River Basin, Eastern Himalaya Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Data Assimilation Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Panday, Prajjwal K.; Williams, Christopher A.; Frey, Karen E.; Brown, Molly E.

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree-day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash-Sutcliffe metric approx. 0.84, annual volume bias <3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002-2006 period is estimated to be 29.7+/-2.9% (which includes 4.2+/-0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3+/-2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000-5500m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9+/-3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9+/-1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree

  18. Bayesian approach to the study of white dwarf binaries in LISA data: The application of a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method

    SciTech Connect

    Stroeer, Alexander; Veitch, John

    2009-09-15

    The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) defines new demands on data analysis efforts in its all-sky gravitational wave survey, recording simultaneously thousands of galactic compact object binary foreground sources and tens to hundreds of background sources like binary black hole mergers and extreme-mass ratio inspirals. We approach this problem with an adaptive and fully automatic Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler, able to sample from the joint posterior density function (as established by Bayes theorem) for a given mixture of signals ''out of the box'', handling the total number of signals as an additional unknown parameter beside the unknown parameters of each individual source and the noise floor. We show in examples from the LISA Mock Data Challenge implementing the full response of LISA in its TDI description that this sampler is able to extract monochromatic Double White Dwarf signals out of colored instrumental noise and additional foreground and background noise successfully in a global fitting approach. We introduce 2 examples with fixed number of signals (MCMC sampling), and 1 example with unknown number of signals (RJ-MCMC), the latter further promoting the idea behind an experimental adaptation of the model indicator proposal densities in the main sampling stage. We note that the experienced runtimes and degeneracies in parameter extraction limit the shown examples to the extraction of a low but realistic number of signals.

  19. Analysis of transtheoretical model of health behavioral changes in a nutrition intervention study--a continuous time Markov chain model with Bayesian approach.

    PubMed

    Ma, Junsheng; Chan, Wenyaw; Tsai, Chu-Lin; Xiong, Momiao; Tilley, Barbara C

    2015-11-30

    Continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) models are often used to study the progression of chronic diseases in medical research but rarely applied to studies of the process of behavioral change. In studies of interventions to modify behaviors, a widely used psychosocial model is based on the transtheoretical model that often has more than three states (representing stages of change) and conceptually permits all possible instantaneous transitions. Very little attention is given to the study of the relationships between a CTMC model and associated covariates under the framework of transtheoretical model. We developed a Bayesian approach to evaluate the covariate effects on a CTMC model through a log-linear regression link. A simulation study of this approach showed that model parameters were accurately and precisely estimated. We analyzed an existing data set on stages of change in dietary intake from the Next Step Trial using the proposed method and the generalized multinomial logit model. We found that the generalized multinomial logit model was not suitable for these data because it ignores the unbalanced data structure and temporal correlation between successive measurements. Our analysis not only confirms that the nutrition intervention was effective but also provides information on how the intervention affected the transitions among the stages of change. We found that, compared with the control group, subjects in the intervention group, on average, spent substantively less time in the precontemplation stage and were more/less likely to move from an unhealthy/healthy state to a healthy/unhealthy state. PMID:26123093

  20. A Markov random field based approach to the identification of meat and bone meal in feed by near-infrared spectroscopic imaging.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Xunpeng; Yang, Zengling; Han, Lujia

    2014-07-01

    Contaminated meat and bone meal (MBM) in animal feedstuff has been the source of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) disease in cattle, leading to a ban in its use, so methods for its detection are essential. In this study, five pure feed and five pure MBM samples were used to prepare two sets of sample arrangements: set A for investigating the discrimination of individual feed/MBM particles and set B for larger numbers of overlapping particles. The two sets were used to test a Markov random field (MRF)-based approach. A Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) imaging system was used for data acquisition. The spatial resolution of the near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopic image was 25 μm × 25 μm. Each spectrum was the average of 16 scans across the wavenumber range 7,000-4,000 cm(-1), at intervals of 8 cm(-1). This study introduces an innovative approach to analyzing NIR spectroscopic images: an MRF-based approach has been developed using the iterated conditional mode (ICM) algorithm, integrating initial labeling-derived results from support vector machine discriminant analysis (SVMDA) and observation data derived from the results of principal component analysis (PCA). The results showed that MBM covered by feed could be successfully recognized with an overall accuracy of 86.59% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.68. Compared with conventional methods, the MRF-based approach is capable of extracting spectral information combined with spatial information from NIR spectroscopic images. This new approach enhances the identification of MBM using NIR spectroscopic imaging.

  1. A new approach to high-order averaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chartier, P.; Murua, A.; Sanz-Serna, J. M.

    2012-09-01

    We present a new approach to perform high-order averaging in oscillatory periodic or quasi-periodic dynamical systems. The averaged system is expressed in terms of (i) scalar coefficients that are universal, i.e. independent of the system under consideration and (ii) basis functions that may be written in an explicit, systematic way in terms of the derivatives of the Fourier coefficients of the vector field being averaged. The coefficients may be recursively computed in a simple fashion. This approach may be used to obtain exponentially small error estimates, as those first derived by Neishtadt for the periodic case and Simó in the quasi-periodic scenario.

  2. Indexed semi-Markov process for wind speed modeling.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petroni, F.; D'Amico, G.; Prattico, F.

    2012-04-01

    Markov chain with different number of states, and Weibull distribution. All this model use Markov chains to generate synthetic wind speed time series but the search for a better model is still open. Approaching this issue, we applied new models which are generalization of Markov models. More precisely we applied semi-Markov models to generate synthetic wind speed time series. In a previous work we proposed different semi-Markov models, showing their ability to reproduce the autocorrelation structures of wind speed data. In that paper we showed also that the autocorrelation is higher with respect to the Markov model. Unfortunately this autocorrelation was still too small compared to the empirical one. In order to overcome the problem of low autocorrelation, in this paper we propose an indexed semi-Markov model. More precisely we assume that wind speed is described by a discrete time homogeneous semi-Markov process. We introduce a memory index which takes into account the periods of different wind activities. With this model the statistical characteristics of wind speed are faithfully reproduced. The wind is a very unstable phenomenon characterized by a sequence of lulls and sustained speeds, and a good wind generator must be able to reproduce such sequences. To check the validity of the predictive semi-Markovian model, the persistence of synthetic winds were calculated, then averaged and computed. The model is used to generate synthetic time series for wind speed by means of Monte Carlo simulations and the time lagged autocorrelation is used to compare statistical properties of the proposed models with those of real data and also with a time series generated though a simple Markov chain. [1] A. Shamshad, M.A. Bawadi, W.M.W. Wan Hussin, T.A. Majid, S.A.M. Sanusi, First and second order Markov chain models for synthetic generation of wind speed time series, Energy 30 (2005) 693-708. [2] H. Nfaoui, H. Essiarab, A.A.M. Sayigh, A stochastic Markov chain model for simulating

  3. Stochastic seismic tomography by interacting Markov chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bottero, Alexis; Gesret, Alexandrine; Romary, Thomas; Noble, Mark; Maisons, Christophe

    2016-10-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods are widely used for non-linear Bayesian inversion where no analytical expression for the forward relation between data and model parameters is available. Contrary to the linear(ized) approaches, they naturally allow to evaluate the uncertainties on the model found. Nevertheless their use is problematic in high-dimensional model spaces especially when the computational cost of the forward problem is significant and/or the a posteriori distribution is multimodal. In this case, the chain can stay stuck in one of the modes and hence not provide an exhaustive sampling of the distribution of interest. We present here a still relatively unknown algorithm that allows interaction between several Markov chains at different temperatures. These interactions (based on importance resampling) ensure a robust sampling of any posterior distribution and thus provide a way to efficiently tackle complex fully non-linear inverse problems. The algorithm is easy to implement and is well adapted to run on parallel supercomputers. In this paper, the algorithm is first introduced and applied to a synthetic multimodal distribution in order to demonstrate its robustness and efficiency compared to a simulated annealing method. It is then applied in the framework of first arrival traveltime seismic tomography on real data recorded in the context of hydraulic fracturing. To carry out this study a wavelet-based adaptive model parametrization has been used. This allows to integrate the a priori information provided by sonic logs and to reduce optimally the dimension of the problem.

  4. Stochastic seismic tomography by interacting Markov chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bottero, Alexis; Gesret, Alexandrine; Romary, Thomas; Noble, Mark; Maisons, Christophe

    2016-07-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods are widely used for non-linear Bayesian inversion where no analytical expression for the forward relation between data and model parameters is available. Contrary to the linear(ized) approaches they naturally allow to evaluate the uncertainties on the model found. Nevertheless their use is problematic in high dimensional model spaces especially when the computational cost of the forward problem is significant and/or the a posteriori distribution is multimodal. In this case the chain can stay stuck in one of the modes and hence not provide an exhaustive sampling of the distribution of interest. We present here a still relatively unknown algorithm that allows interaction between several Markov chains at different temperatures. These interactions (based on Importance Resampling) ensure a robust sampling of any posterior distribution and thus provide a way to efficiently tackle complex fully non linear inverse problems. The algorithm is easy to implement and is well adapted to run on parallel supercomputers. In this paper the algorithm is first introduced and applied to a synthetic multimodal distribution in order to demonstrate its robustness and efficiency compared to a Simulated Annealing method. It is then applied in the framework of first arrival traveltime seismic tomography on real data recorded in the context of hydraulic fracturing. To carry out this study a wavelet based adaptive model parametrization has been used. This allows to integrate the a priori information provided by sonic logs and to reduce optimally the dimension of the problem.

  5. Structure of ordered coaxial and scroll nanotubes: general approach.

    PubMed

    Khalitov, Zufar; Khadiev, Azat; Valeeva, Diana; Pashin, Dmitry

    2016-01-01

    The explicit formulas for atomic coordinates of multiwalled coaxial and cylindrical scroll nanotubes with ordered structure are developed on the basis of a common oblique lattice. According to this approach, a nanotube is formed by transfer of its bulk analogue structure onto a cylindrical surface (with a circular or spiral cross section) and the chirality indexes of the tube are expressed in the number of unit cells. The monoclinic polytypic modifications of ordered coaxial and scroll nanotubes are also discussed and geometrical conditions of their formation are analysed. It is shown that tube radii of ordered multiwalled coaxial nanotubes are multiples of the layer thickness, and the initial turn radius of the orthogonal scroll nanotube is a multiple of the same parameter or its half. PMID:26697865

  6. A multichannel Markov random field approach for automated segmentation of breast cancer tumor in DCE-MRI data using kinetic observation model.

    PubMed

    Ashraf, Ahmed B; Gavenonis, Sara; Daye, Dania; Mies, Carolyn; Feldman, Michael; Rosen, Mark; Kontos, Despina

    2011-01-01

    We present a multichannel extension of Markov random fields (MRFs) for incorporating multiple feature streams in the MRF model. We prove that for making inference queries, any multichannel MRF can be reduced to a single channel MRF provided features in different channels are conditionally independent given the hidden variable, Using this result we incorporate kinetic feature maps derived from breast DCE MRI into the observation model of MRF for tumor segmentation. Our algorithm achieves an ROC AUC of 0.97 for tumor segmentation, We present a comparison against the commonly used approach of fuzzy C-means (FCM) and the more recent method of running FCM on enhancement variance features (FCM-VES). These previous methods give a lower AUC of 0.86 and 0.60 respectively, indicating the superiority of our algorithm. Finally, we investigate the effect of superior segmentation on predicting breast cancer recurrence using kinetic DCE MRI features from the segmented tumor regions. A linear prediction model shows significant prediction improvement when segmenting the tumor using the proposed method, yielding a correlation coefficient r = 0.78 (p < 0.05) to validated cancer recurrence probabilities, compared to 0.63 and 0.45 when using FCM and FCM-VES respectively.

  7. Detecting copy-number variations in whole-exome sequencing data using the eXome Hidden Markov Model: an 'exome-first' approach.

    PubMed

    Miyatake, Satoko; Koshimizu, Eriko; Fujita, Atsushi; Fukai, Ryoko; Imagawa, Eri; Ohba, Chihiro; Kuki, Ichiro; Nukui, Megumi; Araki, Atsushi; Makita, Yoshio; Ogata, Tsutomu; Nakashima, Mitsuko; Tsurusaki, Yoshinori; Miyake, Noriko; Saitsu, Hirotomo; Matsumoto, Naomichi

    2015-04-01

    Whole-exome sequencing (WES) is becoming a standard tool for detecting nucleotide changes, and determining whether WES data can be used for the detection of copy-number variations (CNVs) is of interest. To date, several algorithms have been developed for such analyses, although verification is needed to establish if they fit well for the appropriate purpose, depending on the characteristics of each algorithm. Here, we performed WES CNV analysis using the eXome Hidden Markov Model (XHMM). We validated its performance using 27 rare CNVs previously identified by microarray as positive controls, finding that the detection rate was 59%, or higher (89%) with three or more targets. XHMM can be effectively used, especially for the detection of >200 kb CNVs. XHMM may be useful for deletion breakpoint detection. Next, we applied XHMM to genetically unsolved patients, demonstrating successful identification of pathogenic CNVs: 1.5-1.9-Mb deletions involving NSD1 in patients with unknown overgrowth syndrome leading to the diagnosis of Sotos syndrome, and 6.4-Mb duplication involving MECP2 in affected brothers with late-onset spasm and progressive cerebral/cerebellar atrophy confirming the clinical suspect of MECP2 duplication syndrome. The possibility of an 'exome-first' approach for clinical genetic investigation may be considered to save the cost of multiple investigations. PMID:25608832

  8. Challenges in detecting genomic copy number aberrations using next-generation sequencing data and the eXome Hidden Markov Model: a clinical exome-first diagnostic approach

    PubMed Central

    Yamamoto, Toshiyuki; Shimojima, Keiko; Ondo, Yumiko; Imai, Katsumi; Chong, Pin Fee; Kira, Ryutaro; Amemiya, Mitsuhiro; Saito, Akira; Okamoto, Nobuhiko

    2016-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is widely used for the detection of disease-causing nucleotide variants. The challenges associated with detecting copy number variants (CNVs) using NGS analysis have been reported previously. Disease-related exome panels such as Illumina TruSight One are more cost-effective than whole-exome sequencing (WES) because of their selective target regions (~21% of the WES). In this study, CNVs were analyzed using data extracted through a disease-related exome panel analysis and the eXome Hidden Markov Model (XHMM). Samples from 61 patients with undiagnosed developmental delays and 52 healthy parents were included in this study. In the preliminary study to validate the constructed XHMM system (microarray-first approach), 34 patients who had previously been analyzed by chromosomal microarray testing were used. Among the five CNVs larger than 200 kb that were considered as non-pathogenic CNVs and were used as positive controls, four CNVs was successfully detected. The system was subsequently used to analyze different samples from 27 patients (NGS-first approach); 2 of these patients were successfully diagnosed as having pathogenic CNVs (an unbalanced translocation der(5)t(5;14) and a 16p11.2 duplication). These diagnoses were re-confirmed by chromosomal microarray testing and/or fluorescence in situ hybridization. The NGS-first approach generated no false-negative or false-positive results for pathogenic CNVs, indicating its high sensitivity and specificity in detecting pathogenic CNVs. The results of this study show the possible clinical utility of pathogenic CNV screening using disease-related exome panel analysis and XHMM. PMID:27579173

  9. Challenges in detecting genomic copy number aberrations using next-generation sequencing data and the eXome Hidden Markov Model: a clinical exome-first diagnostic approach.

    PubMed

    Yamamoto, Toshiyuki; Shimojima, Keiko; Ondo, Yumiko; Imai, Katsumi; Chong, Pin Fee; Kira, Ryutaro; Amemiya, Mitsuhiro; Saito, Akira; Okamoto, Nobuhiko

    2016-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is widely used for the detection of disease-causing nucleotide variants. The challenges associated with detecting copy number variants (CNVs) using NGS analysis have been reported previously. Disease-related exome panels such as Illumina TruSight One are more cost-effective than whole-exome sequencing (WES) because of their selective target regions (~21% of the WES). In this study, CNVs were analyzed using data extracted through a disease-related exome panel analysis and the eXome Hidden Markov Model (XHMM). Samples from 61 patients with undiagnosed developmental delays and 52 healthy parents were included in this study. In the preliminary study to validate the constructed XHMM system (microarray-first approach), 34 patients who had previously been analyzed by chromosomal microarray testing were used. Among the five CNVs larger than 200 kb that were considered as non-pathogenic CNVs and were used as positive controls, four CNVs was successfully detected. The system was subsequently used to analyze different samples from 27 patients (NGS-first approach); 2 of these patients were successfully diagnosed as having pathogenic CNVs (an unbalanced translocation der(5)t(5;14) and a 16p11.2 duplication). These diagnoses were re-confirmed by chromosomal microarray testing and/or fluorescence in situ hybridization. The NGS-first approach generated no false-negative or false-positive results for pathogenic CNVs, indicating its high sensitivity and specificity in detecting pathogenic CNVs. The results of this study show the possible clinical utility of pathogenic CNV screening using disease-related exome panel analysis and XHMM. PMID:27579173

  10. Using satellite observations to improve model estimates of CO2 and CH4 flux: a Metropolis Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacBean, Natasha; Disney, Mathias; Lewis, Philip; Ineson, Phil

    2010-05-01

    profile as a whole. We present results from an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) designed to investigate the impact of management and climate change on peatland carbon fluxes, as well as how observations from satellites may be able to constrain modeled carbon fluxes. We use an adapted version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model (Potter et al., 1993) that includes a representation of methane dynamics (Potter, 1997). The model formulation is further modified to allow for assimilation of satellite observations of surface soil moisture and land surface temperature. The observations are used to update model estimates using a Metropolis Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. We examine the effect of temporal frequency and precision of satellite observations with a view to establishing how, and at what level, such observations would make a significant improvement in model uncertainty. We compare this with the system characteristics of existing and future satellites. We believe this is the first attempt to assimilate surface soil moisture and land surface temperature into an ecosystem model that includes a full representation of CH4 flux. Bubier, J., and T. Moore (1994), An ecological perspective on methane emissions from northern wetlands, TREE, 9, 460-464. Charman, D. (2002), Peatlands and Environmental Change, JohnWiley and Sons, Ltd, England. Gorham, E. (1991), Northern peatlands: Role in the carbon cycle and probable responses to climatic warming, Ecological Applications, 1, 182-195. Lai, D. (2009), Methane dynamics in northern peatlands: A review, Pedosphere, 19, 409-421. Le Mer, J., and P. Roger (2001), Production, oxidation, emission and consumption of methane by soils: A review, European Journal of Soil Biology, 37, 25-50. Limpens, J., F. Berendse, J. Canadell, C. Freeman, J. Holden, N. Roulet, H. Rydin, and Potter, C. (1997), An ecosystem simulation model for methane production and emission from wetlands, Global Biogeochemical

  11. Initial Report on the Development of a Monte Carlo-Markov Chain Joint Inversion Approach for Geothermal Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Foxall, W; Ramirez, A; Carlson, S; Dyer, K; Sun, Y

    2007-04-25

    Geothermal exploration and subsequent characterization of potential resources typically employ a variety of geophysical, geologic and geochemical techniques. However, since the data collected by each technique provide information directly on only one or a very limited set of the many physical parameters that characterize a geothermal system, no single method can be used to describe the system in its entirety. Presently, the usual approach to analyzing disparate data streams for geothermal applications is to invert (or forward model) each data set separately and then combine or compare the resulting models, for the most part in a more or less ad hoc manner. However, while each inversion may yield a model that fits the individual data set, the models are usually inconsistent with each other to some degree. This reflects uncertainties arising from the inevitable fact that geophysical and other exploration data in general are to some extent noisy, incomplete, and of limited sensitivity and resolution, and so yield non-unique results. The purpose of the project described here is to integrate the different model constraints provided by disparate geophysical, geological and geochemical data in a rigorous and consistent manner by formal joint inversion. The objective is to improve the fidelity of exploration results and reservoir characterization, thus addressing the goal of the DOE Geothermal Program to improve success in exploration for economically viable resources by better defining drilling targets, reducing risk, and improving exploration/drilling success rates.

  12. Phasic Triplet Markov Chains.

    PubMed

    El Yazid Boudaren, Mohamed; Monfrini, Emmanuel; Pieczynski, Wojciech; Aïssani, Amar

    2014-11-01

    Hidden Markov chains have been shown to be inadequate for data modeling under some complex conditions. In this work, we address the problem of statistical modeling of phenomena involving two heterogeneous system states. Such phenomena may arise in biology or communications, among other fields. Namely, we consider that a sequence of meaningful words is to be searched within a whole observation that also contains arbitrary one-by-one symbols. Moreover, a word may be interrupted at some site to be carried on later. Applying plain hidden Markov chains to such data, while ignoring their specificity, yields unsatisfactory results. The Phasic triplet Markov chain, proposed in this paper, overcomes this difficulty by means of an auxiliary underlying process in accordance with the triplet Markov chains theory. Related Bayesian restoration techniques and parameters estimation procedures according to the new model are then described. Finally, to assess the performance of the proposed model against the conventional hidden Markov chain model, experiments are conducted on synthetic and real data. PMID:26353069

  13. Ordered LOGIT Model approach for the determination of financial distress.

    PubMed

    Kinay, B

    2010-01-01

    Nowadays, as a result of the global competition encountered, numerous companies come up against financial distresses. To predict and take proactive approaches for those problems is quite important. Thus, the prediction of crisis and financial distress is essential in terms of revealing the financial condition of companies. In this study, financial ratios relating to 156 industrial firms that are quoted in the Istanbul Stock Exchange are used and probabilities of financial distress are predicted by means of an ordered logit regression model. By means of Altman's Z Score, the dependent variable is composed by scaling the level of risk. Thus, a model that can compose an early warning system and predict financial distress is proposed.

  14. Zeroth-order regular approximation approach to molecular parity violation

    SciTech Connect

    Berger, Robert; Langermann, Norbert; Wuellen, Christoph van

    2005-04-01

    We present an ab initio (quasirelativistic) two-component approach to the computation of molecular parity-violating effects which is based on the zeroth-order regular approximation (ZORA). As a first application, we compute the parity-violating energy differences between various P and M conformations of C{sub 2}-symmetric molecules belonging to the series H{sub 2}X{sub 2} with X=O, S, Se, Te, Po. The results are compared to previously reported (relativistic) four-component Dirac-Hartree-Fock-Coulomb (DHFC) data. Relative deviations between ZORA and DHFC values are well below 2% for diselane and the heavier homologs whereas somewhat larger relative deviations are observed for the lighter homologs. The larger deviations for lighter systems are attributed to the (nonlocal) exchange terms coupling large and small components, which have been neglected in the present ZORA implementation. For heavier systems these play a minor role, which explains the good performance of the ZORA approach. An excellent performance, even for lighter systems, is expected for a related density-functional-theory-based ZORA because then the exchange terms coupling large and small components are absent.

  15. One Adaptive Synchronization Approach for Fractional-Order Chaotic System with Fractional-Order 1 < q < 2

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Ping; Bai, Rongji

    2014-01-01

    Based on a new stability result of equilibrium point in nonlinear fractional-order systems for fractional-order lying in 1 < q < 2, one adaptive synchronization approach is established. The adaptive synchronization for the fractional-order Lorenz chaotic system with fractional-order 1 < q < 2 is considered. Numerical simulations show the validity and feasibility of the proposed scheme. PMID:25247207

  16. One adaptive synchronization approach for fractional-order chaotic system with fractional-order 1 < q < 2.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Ping; Bai, Rongji

    2014-01-01

    Based on a new stability result of equilibrium point in nonlinear fractional-order systems for fractional-order lying in 1 < q < 2, one adaptive synchronization approach is established. The adaptive synchronization for the fractional-order Lorenz chaotic system with fractional-order 1 < q < 2 is considered. Numerical simulations show the validity and feasibility of the proposed scheme. PMID:25247207

  17. Exploiting mid-range DNA patterns for sequence classification: binary abstraction Markov models.

    PubMed

    Shepard, Samuel S; McSweeny, Andrew; Serpen, Gursel; Fedorov, Alexei

    2012-06-01

    Messenger RNA sequences possess specific nucleotide patterns distinguishing them from non-coding genomic sequences. In this study, we explore the utilization of modified Markov models to analyze sequences up to 44 bp, far beyond the 8-bp limit of conventional Markov models, for exon/intron discrimination. In order to analyze nucleotide sequences of this length, their information content is first reduced by conversion into shorter binary patterns via the application of numerous abstraction schemes. After the conversion of genomic sequences to binary strings, homogenous Markov models trained on the binary sequences are used to discriminate between exons and introns. We term this approach the Binary Abstraction Markov Model (BAMM). High-quality abstraction schemes for exon/intron discrimination are selected using optimization algorithms on supercomputers. The best MM classifiers are then combined using support vector machines into a single classifier. With this approach, over 95% classification accuracy is achieved without taking reading frame into account. With further development, the BAMM approach can be applied to sequences lacking the genetic code such as ncRNAs and 5'-untranslated regions. PMID:22344692

  18. Fractional System Identification: An Approach Using Continuous Order-Distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hartley, Tom T.; Lorenzo, Carl F.

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses the identification of fractional- and integer-order systems using the concept of continuous order-distribution. Based on the ability to define systems using continuous order-distributions, it is shown that frequency domain system identification can be performed using least squares techniques after discretizing the order-distribution.

  19. Markov speckle for efficient random bit generation.

    PubMed

    Horstmeyer, Roarke; Chen, Richard Y; Judkewitz, Benjamin; Yang, Changhuei

    2012-11-19

    Optical speckle is commonly observed in measurements using coherent radiation. While lacking experimental validation, previous work has often assumed that speckle's random spatial pattern follows a Markov process. Here, we present a derivation and experimental confirmation of conditions under which this assumption holds true. We demonstrate that a detected speckle field can be designed to obey the first-order Markov property by using a Cauchy attenuation mask to modulate scattered light. Creating Markov speckle enables the development of more accurate and efficient image post-processing algorithms, with applications including improved de-noising, segmentation and super-resolution. To show its versatility, we use the Cauchy mask to maximize the entropy of a detected speckle field with fixed average speckle size, allowing cryptographic applications to extract a maximum number of useful random bits from speckle images.

  20. Markov reward processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, R. M.

    1991-01-01

    Numerous applications in the area of computer system analysis can be effectively studied with Markov reward models. These models describe the behavior of the system with a continuous-time Markov chain, where a reward rate is associated with each state. In a reliability/availability model, upstates may have reward rate 1 and down states may have reward rate zero associated with them. In a queueing model, the number of jobs of certain type in a given state may be the reward rate attached to that state. In a combined model of performance and reliability, the reward rate of a state may be the computational capacity, or a related performance measure. Expected steady-state reward rate and expected instantaneous reward rate are clearly useful measures of the Markov reward model. More generally, the distribution of accumulated reward or time-averaged reward over a finite time interval may be determined from the solution of the Markov reward model. This information is of great practical significance in situations where the workload can be well characterized (deterministically, or by continuous functions e.g., distributions). The design process in the development of a computer system is an expensive and long term endeavor. For aerospace applications the reliability of the computer system is essential, as is the ability to complete critical workloads in a well defined real time interval. Consequently, effective modeling of such systems must take into account both performance and reliability. This fact motivates our use of Markov reward models to aid in the development and evaluation of fault tolerant computer systems.

  1. Submodular Relaxation for Inference in Markov Random Fields.

    PubMed

    Osokin, Anton; Vetrov, Dmitry P

    2015-07-01

    In this paper we address the problem of finding the most probable state of a discrete Markov random field (MRF), also known as the MRF energy minimization problem. The task is known to be NP-hard in general and its practical importance motivates numerous approximate algorithms. We propose a submodular relaxation approach (SMR) based on a Lagrangian relaxation of the initial problem. Unlike the dual decomposition approach of Komodakis et al. [29] SMR does not decompose the graph structure of the initial problem but constructs a submodular energy that is minimized within the Lagrangian relaxation. Our approach is applicable to both pairwise and high-order MRFs and allows to take into account global potentials of certain types. We study theoretical properties of the proposed approach and evaluate it experimentally.

  2. High-order harmonic generation in solids: A unifying approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luu, Tran Trung; Wörner, Hans Jakob

    2016-09-01

    There have been several experimental reports showing high-order harmonic generation from solids, but there has been no unifying theory presented as of yet for all these experiments. Here we report on the systematic investigation of high-order harmonic generation within the semiconductor Bloch equations, taking into account multiple bands and relaxation processes phenomenologically. In addition to reproducing key experiments, we show the following: (i) Electronic excitations, direct-indirect excitation pathways, and relaxation processes are responsible for high-order harmonic generation and control using midinfrared drivers in zinc oxide. We describe an intuitive picture explaining a two-color experiment involving noninversion symmetric crystals. (ii) High-order harmonic generation can be considered as a general feature of ultrafast strong-field-driven electronic dynamics in solids. We demonstrate this statement by predicting high-order harmonic spectra of solids that have not been studied yet.

  3. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    COOPER,J. ARLIN

    1999-09-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three different levels, for developing and using cycle information, for developing Importance and

  4. General and specific consciousness: a first-order representationalist approach

    PubMed Central

    Mehta, Neil; Mashour, George A.

    2013-01-01

    It is widely acknowledged that a complete theory of consciousness should explain general consciousness (what makes a state conscious at all) and specific consciousness (what gives a conscious state its particular phenomenal quality). We defend first-order representationalism, which argues that consciousness consists of sensory representations directly available to the subject for action selection, belief formation, planning, etc. We provide a neuroscientific framework for this primarily philosophical theory, according to which neural correlates of general consciousness include prefrontal cortex, posterior parietal cortex, and non-specific thalamic nuclei, while neural correlates of specific consciousness include sensory cortex and specific thalamic nuclei. We suggest that recent data support first-order representationalism over biological theory, higher-order representationalism, recurrent processing theory, information integration theory, and global workspace theory. PMID:23882231

  5. Reduced-Order Modeling: New Approaches for Computational Physics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beran, Philip S.; Silva, Walter A.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we review the development of new reduced-order modeling techniques and discuss their applicability to various problems in computational physics. Emphasis is given to methods ba'sed on Volterra series representations and the proper orthogonal decomposition. Results are reported for different nonlinear systems to provide clear examples of the construction and use of reduced-order models, particularly in the multi-disciplinary field of computational aeroelasticity. Unsteady aerodynamic and aeroelastic behaviors of two- dimensional and three-dimensional geometries are described. Large increases in computational efficiency are obtained through the use of reduced-order models, thereby justifying the initial computational expense of constructing these models and inotivatim,- their use for multi-disciplinary design analysis.

  6. Automated Approach to Very High-Order Aeroacoustic Computations. Revision

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dyson, Rodger W.; Goodrich, John W.

    2001-01-01

    Computational aeroacoustics requires efficient, high-resolution simulation tools. For smooth problems, this is best accomplished with very high-order in space and time methods on small stencils. However, the complexity of highly accurate numerical methods can inhibit their practical application, especially in irregular geometries. This complexity is reduced by using a special form of Hermite divided-difference spatial interpolation on Cartesian grids, and a Cauchy-Kowalewski recursion procedure for time advancement. In addition, a stencil constraint tree reduces the complexity of interpolating grid points that am located near wall boundaries. These procedures are used to develop automatically and to implement very high-order methods (> 15) for solving the linearized Euler equations that can achieve less than one grid point per wavelength resolution away from boundaries by including spatial derivatives of the primitive variables at each grid point. The accuracy of stable surface treatments is currently limited to 11th order for grid aligned boundaries and to 2nd order for irregular boundaries.

  7. Hidden Markov Models for Detecting Aseismic Events in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granat, R.

    2004-12-01

    We employ a hidden Markov model (HMM) to segment surface displacement time series collection by the Southern California Integrated Geodetic Network (SCIGN). These segmented time series are then used to detect regional events by observing the number of simultaneous mode changes across the network; if a large number of stations change at the same time, that indicates an event. The hidden Markov model (HMM) approach assumes that the observed data has been generated by an unobservable dynamical statistical process. The process is of a particular form such that each observation is coincident with the system being in a particular discrete state, which is interpreted as a behavioral mode. The dynamics are the model are constructed so that the next state is directly dependent only on the current state -- it is a first order Markov process. The model is completely described by a set of parameters: the initial state probabilities, the first order Markov chain state-to-state transition probabilities, and the probability distribution of observable outputs associated with each state. The result of this approach is that our segmentation decisions are based entirely on statistical changes in the behavior of the observed daily displacements. In general, finding the optimal model parameters to fit the data is a difficult problem. We present an innovative model fitting method that is unsupervised (i.e., it requires no labeled training data) and uses a regularized version of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to ensure that model solutions are both robust with respect to initial conditions and of high quality. We demonstrate the reliability of the method as compared to standard model fitting methods and show that it results in lower noise in the mode change correlation signal used to detect regional events. We compare candidate events detected by this method to the seismic record and observe that most are not correlated with a significant seismic event. Our analysis

  8. Thermal nanostructure: An order parameter multiscale ensemble approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheluvaraja, S.; Ortoleva, P.

    2010-02-01

    Deductive all-atom multiscale techniques imply that many nanosystems can be understood in terms of the slow dynamics of order parameters that coevolve with the quasiequilibrium probability density for rapidly fluctuating atomic configurations. The result of this multiscale analysis is a set of stochastic equations for the order parameters whose dynamics is driven by thermal-average forces. We present an efficient algorithm for sampling atomistic configurations in viruses and other supramillion atom nanosystems. This algorithm allows for sampling of a wide range of configurations without creating an excess of high-energy, improbable ones. It is implemented and used to calculate thermal-average forces. These forces are then used to search the free-energy landscape of a nanosystem for deep minima. The methodology is applied to thermal structures of Cowpea chlorotic mottle virus capsid. The method has wide applicability to other nanosystems whose properties are described by the CHARMM or other interatomic force field. Our implementation, denoted SIMNANOWORLD™, achieves calibration-free nanosystem modeling. Essential atomic-scale detail is preserved via a quasiequilibrium probability density while overall character is provided via predicted values of order parameters. Applications from virology to the computer-aided design of nanocapsules for delivery of therapeutic agents and of vaccines for nonenveloped viruses are envisioned.

  9. Musical Markov Chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Volchenkov, Dima; Dawin, Jean René

    A system for using dice to compose music randomly is known as the musical dice game. The discrete time MIDI models of 804 pieces of classical music written by 29 composers have been encoded into the transition matrices and studied by Markov chains. Contrary to human languages, entropy dominates over redundancy, in the musical dice games based on the compositions of classical music. The maximum complexity is achieved on the blocks consisting of just a few notes (8 notes, for the musical dice games generated over Bach's compositions). First passage times to notes can be used to resolve tonality and feature a composer.

  10. Stochastic motif extraction using hidden Markov model

    SciTech Connect

    Fujiwara, Yukiko; Asogawa, Minoru; Konagaya, Akihiko

    1994-12-31

    In this paper, we study the application of an HMM (hidden Markov model) to the problem of representing protein sequences by a stochastic motif. A stochastic protein motif represents the small segments of protein sequences that have a certain function or structure. The stochastic motif, represented by an HMM, has conditional probabilities to deal with the stochastic nature of the motif. This HMM directive reflects the characteristics of the motif, such as a protein periodical structure or grouping. In order to obtain the optimal HMM, we developed the {open_quotes}iterative duplication method{close_quotes} for HMM topology learning. It starts from a small fully-connected network and iterates the network generation and parameter optimization until it achieves sufficient discrimination accuracy. Using this method, we obtained an HMM for a leucine zipper motif. Compared to the accuracy of a symbolic pattern representation with accuracy of 14.8 percent, an HMM achieved 79.3 percent in prediction. Additionally, the method can obtain an HMM for various types of zinc finger motifs, and it might separate the mixed data. We demonstrated that this approach is applicable to the validation of the protein databases; a constructed HMM b as indicated that one protein sequence annotated as {open_quotes}lencine-zipper like sequence{close_quotes} in the database is quite different from other leucine-zipper sequences in terms of likelihood, and we found this discrimination is plausible.

  11. Ordering phenomena of star polymer solutions approaching the Θ state

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Likos, C. N.; Löwen, H.; Poppe, A.; Willner, L.; Roovers, J.; Cubitt, B.; Richter, D.

    1998-11-01

    The liquid-state ordering phenomena of a semidilute polybutadiene 64-arm star polymer solution were investigated by small-angle neutron scattering. For this purpose, we used deuterated 1,4-dioxane, which is a Θ solvent for the star at 31.5 °C. Its quality was modified by varying the temperature in the range between 40 °C and 80 °C. Besides a swelling of the star, with increasing temperature the development of a strong correlation peak was observed in the experiment. The experimental data were described theoretically by employing an effective pair potential between stars which was introduced earlier by Mewis et al. [J. Mewis, W. J. Frith, T. A. Strivens, and W. B. Russel, AIChE J. 35, 415 (1989)].

  12. Optimal q-Markov COVER for finite precision implementation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williamson, Darrell; Skelton, Robert E.

    1989-01-01

    The existing q-Markov COVER realization theory does not take into account the problems of arithmetic errors due to both the quantization of states and coefficients of the reduced order model. All q-Markov COVERs allow some freedom in the choice of parameters. Here, researchers exploit this freedom in the existing theory to optimize the models with respect to these finite wordlength effects.

  13. Estimating Neuronal Ageing with Hidden Markov Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bing; Pham, Tuan D.

    2011-06-01

    Neuronal degeneration is widely observed in normal ageing, meanwhile the neurode-generative disease like Alzheimer's disease effects neuronal degeneration in a faster way which is considered as faster ageing. Early intervention of such disease could benefit subjects with potentials of positive clinical outcome, therefore, early detection of disease related brain structural alteration is required. In this paper, we propose a computational approach for modelling the MRI-based structure alteration with ageing using hidden Markov model. The proposed hidden Markov model based brain structural model encodes intracortical tissue/fluid distribution using discrete wavelet transformation and vector quantization. Further, it captures gray matter volume loss, which is capable of reflecting subtle intracortical changes with ageing. Experiments were carried out on healthy subjects to validate its accuracy and robustness. Results have shown its ability of predicting the brain age with prediction error of 1.98 years without training data, which shows better result than other age predition methods.

  14. A path-independent method for barrier option pricing in hidden Markov models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rashidi Ranjbar, Hedieh; Seifi, Abbas

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents a method for barrier option pricing under a Black-Scholes model with Markov switching. We extend the option pricing method of Buffington and Elliott to price continuously monitored barrier options under a Black-Scholes model with regime switching. We use a regime switching random Esscher transform in order to determine an equivalent martingale pricing measure, and then solve the resulting multidimensional integral for pricing barrier options. We have calculated prices for down-and-out call options under a two-state hidden Markov model using two different Monte-Carlo simulation approaches and the proposed method. A comparison of the results shows that our method is faster than Monte-Carlo simulation methods.

  15. Decentralized learning in Markov games.

    PubMed

    Vrancx, Peter; Verbeeck, Katja; Nowé, Ann

    2008-08-01

    Learning automata (LA) were recently shown to be valuable tools for designing multiagent reinforcement learning algorithms. One of the principal contributions of the LA theory is that a set of decentralized independent LA is able to control a finite Markov chain with unknown transition probabilities and rewards. In this paper, we propose to extend this algorithm to Markov games--a straightforward extension of single-agent Markov decision problems to distributed multiagent decision problems. We show that under the same ergodic assumptions of the original theorem, the extended algorithm will converge to a pure equilibrium point between agent policies.

  16. Metrics for Labeled Markov Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Desharnais, Josee; Jagadeesan, Radha; Gupta, Vineet; Panangaden, Prakash

    1999-01-01

    Partial Labeled Markov Chains are simultaneously generalizations of process algebra and of traditional Markov chains. They provide a foundation for interacting discrete probabilistic systems, the interaction being synchronization on labels as in process algebra. Existing notions of process equivalence are too sensitive to the exact probabilities of various transitions. This paper addresses contextual reasoning principles for reasoning about more robust notions of "approximate" equivalence between concurrent interacting probabilistic systems. The present results indicate that:We develop a family of metrics between partial labeled Markov chains to formalize the notion of distance between processes. We show that processes at distance zero are bisimilar. We describe a decision procedure to compute the distance between two processes. We show that reasoning about approximate equivalence can be done compositionally by showing that process combinators do not increase distance. We introduce an asymptotic metric to capture asymptotic properties of Markov chains; and show that parallel composition does not increase asymptotic distance.

  17. Semi-Markov Graph Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Raberto, Marco; Rapallo, Fabio; Scalas, Enrico

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we outline a model of graph (or network) dynamics based on two ingredients. The first ingredient is a Markov chain on the space of possible graphs. The second ingredient is a semi-Markov counting process of renewal type. The model consists in subordinating the Markov chain to the semi-Markov counting process. In simple words, this means that the chain transitions occur at random time instants called epochs. The model is quite rich and its possible connections with algebraic geometry are briefly discussed. Moreover, for the sake of simplicity, we focus on the space of undirected graphs with a fixed number of nodes. However, in an example, we present an interbank market model where it is meaningful to use directed graphs or even weighted graphs. PMID:21887245

  18. Bayesian Selection of Markov Models for Symbol Sequences: Application to Microsaccadic Eye Movements

    PubMed Central

    Bettenbühl, Mario; Rusconi, Marco; Engbert, Ralf; Holschneider, Matthias

    2012-01-01

    Complex biological dynamics often generate sequences of discrete events which can be described as a Markov process. The order of the underlying Markovian stochastic process is fundamental for characterizing statistical dependencies within sequences. As an example for this class of biological systems, we investigate the Markov order of sequences of microsaccadic eye movements from human observers. We calculate the integrated likelihood of a given sequence for various orders of the Markov process and use this in a Bayesian framework for statistical inference on the Markov order. Our analysis shows that data from most participants are best explained by a first-order Markov process. This is compatible with recent findings of a statistical coupling of subsequent microsaccade orientations. Our method might prove to be useful for a broad class of biological systems. PMID:22970124

  19. Hidden Markov Model Analysis of Multichromophore Photobleaching

    PubMed Central

    Messina, Troy C.; Kim, Hiyun; Giurleo, Jason T.; Talaga, David S.

    2007-01-01

    The interpretation of single-molecule measurements is greatly complicated by the presence of multiple fluorescent labels. However, many molecular systems of interest consist of multiple interacting components. We investigate this issue using multiply labeled dextran polymers that we intentionally photobleach to the background on a single-molecule basis. Hidden Markov models allow for unsupervised analysis of the data to determine the number of fluorescent subunits involved in the fluorescence intermittency of the 6-carboxy-tetramethylrhodamine labels by counting the discrete steps in fluorescence intensity. The Bayes information criterion allows us to distinguish between hidden Markov models that differ by the number of states, that is, the number of fluorescent molecules. We determine information-theoretical limits and show via Monte Carlo simulations that the hidden Markov model analysis approaches these theoretical limits. This technique has resolving power of one fluorescing unit up to as many as 30 fluorescent dyes with the appropriate choice of dye and adequate detection capability. We discuss the general utility of this method for determining aggregation-state distributions as could appear in many biologically important systems and its adaptability to general photometric experiments. PMID:16913765

  20. Bayesian clustering of DNA sequences using Markov chains and a stochastic partition model.

    PubMed

    Jääskinen, Väinö; Parkkinen, Ville; Cheng, Lu; Corander, Jukka

    2014-02-01

    In many biological applications it is necessary to cluster DNA sequences into groups that represent underlying organismal units, such as named species or genera. In metagenomics this grouping needs typically to be achieved on the basis of relatively short sequences which contain different types of errors, making the use of a statistical modeling approach desirable. Here we introduce a novel method for this purpose by developing a stochastic partition model that clusters Markov chains of a given order. The model is based on a Dirichlet process prior and we use conjugate priors for the Markov chain parameters which enables an analytical expression for comparing the marginal likelihoods of any two partitions. To find a good candidate for the posterior mode in the partition space, we use a hybrid computational approach which combines the EM-algorithm with a greedy search. This is demonstrated to be faster and yield highly accurate results compared to earlier suggested clustering methods for the metagenomics application. Our model is fairly generic and could also be used for clustering of other types of sequence data for which Markov chains provide a reasonable way to compress information, as illustrated by experiments on shotgun sequence type data from an Escherichia coli strain. PMID:24246289

  1. A Markov Model for Assessing the Reliability of a Digital Feedwater Control System

    SciTech Connect

    Chu,T.L.; Yue, M.; Martinez-Guridi, G.; Lehner, J.

    2009-02-11

    A Markov approach has been selected to represent and quantify the reliability model of a digital feedwater control system (DFWCS). The system state, i.e., whether a system fails or not, is determined by the status of the components that can be characterized by component failure modes. Starting from the system state that has no component failure, possible transitions out of it are all failure modes of all components in the system. Each additional component failure mode will formulate a different system state that may or may not be a system failure state. The Markov transition diagram is developed by strictly following the sequences of component failures (i.e., failure sequences) because the different orders of the same set of failures may affect the system in completely different ways. The formulation and quantification of the Markov model, together with the proposed FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) approach, and the development of the supporting automated FMEA tool are considered the three major elements of a generic conceptual framework under which the reliability of digital systems can be assessed.

  2. Markov models and the ensemble Kalman filter for estimation of sorption rates.

    SciTech Connect

    Vugrin, Eric D.; McKenna, Sean Andrew; Vugrin, Kay White

    2007-09-01

    Non-equilibrium sorption of contaminants in ground water systems is examined from the perspective of sorption rate estimation. A previously developed Markov transition probability model for solute transport is used in conjunction with a new conditional probability-based model of the sorption and desorption rates based on breakthrough curve data. Two models for prediction of spatially varying sorption and desorption rates along a one-dimensional streamline are developed. These models are a Markov model that utilizes conditional probabilities to determine the rates and an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) applied to the conditional probability method. Both approaches rely on a previously developed Markov-model of mass transfer, and both models assimilate the observed concentration data into the rate estimation at each observation time. Initial values of the rates are perturbed from the true values to form ensembles of rates and the ability of both estimation approaches to recover the true rates is examined over three different sets of perturbations. The models accurately estimate the rates when the mean of the perturbations are zero, the unbiased case. For the cases containing some bias, addition of the ensemble Kalman filter is shown to improve accuracy of the rate estimation by as much as an order of magnitude.

  3. Long-range memory and non-Markov statistical effects in human sensorimotor coordination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    M. Yulmetyev, Renat; Emelyanova, Natalya; Hänggi, Peter; Gafarov, Fail; Prokhorov, Alexander

    2002-12-01

    In this paper, the non-Markov statistical processes and long-range memory effects in human sensorimotor coordination are investigated. The theoretical basis of this study is the statistical theory of non-stationary discrete non-Markov processes in complex systems (Phys. Rev. E 62, 6178 (2000)). The human sensorimotor coordination was experimentally studied by means of standard dynamical tapping test on the group of 32 young peoples with tap numbers up to 400. This test was carried out separately for the right and the left hand according to the degree of domination of each brain hemisphere. The numerical analysis of the experimental results was made with the help of power spectra of the initial time correlation function, the memory functions of low orders and the first three points of the statistical spectrum of non-Markovity parameter. Our observations demonstrate, that with the regard to results of the standard dynamic tapping-test it is possible to divide all examinees into five different dynamic types. We have introduced the conflict coefficient to estimate quantitatively the order-disorder effects underlying life systems. The last one reflects the existence of disbalance between the nervous and the motor human coordination. The suggested classification of the neurophysiological activity represents the dynamic generalization of the well-known neuropsychological types and provides the new approach in a modern neuropsychology.

  4. Phase transitions in Hidden Markov Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bechhoefer, John; Lathouwers, Emma

    In Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), a Markov process is not directly accessible. In the simplest case, a two-state Markov model ``emits'' one of two ``symbols'' at each time step. We can think of these symbols as noisy measurements of the underlying state. With some probability, the symbol implies that the system is in one state when it is actually in the other. The ability to judge which state the system is in sets the efficiency of a Maxwell demon that observes state fluctuations in order to extract heat from a coupled reservoir. The state-inference problem is to infer the underlying state from such noisy measurements at each time step. We show that there can be a phase transition in such measurements: for measurement error rates below a certain threshold, the inferred state always matches the observation. For higher error rates, there can be continuous or discontinuous transitions to situations where keeping a memory of past observations improves the state estimate. We can partly understand this behavior by mapping the HMM onto a 1d random-field Ising model at zero temperature. We also present more recent work that explores a larger parameter space and more states. Research funded by NSERC, Canada.

  5. A reward semi-Markov process with memory for wind speed modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petroni, F.; D'Amico, G.; Prattico, F.

    2012-04-01

    Markov chain with different number of states, and Weibull distribution. All this model use Markov chains to generate synthetic wind speed time series but the search for a better model is still open. Approaching this issue, we applied new models which are generalization of Markov models. More precisely we applied semi-Markov models to generate synthetic wind speed time series. The primary goal of this analysis is the study of the time history of the wind in order to assess its reliability as a source of power and to determine the associated storage levels required. In order to assess this issue we use a probabilistic model based on indexed semi-Markov process [4] to which a reward structure is attached. Our model is used to calculate the expected energy produced by a given turbine and its variability expressed by the variance of the process. Our results can be used to compare different wind farms based on their reward and also on the risk of missed production due to the intrinsic variability of the wind speed process. The model is used to generate synthetic time series for wind speed by means of Monte Carlo simulations and backtesting procedure is used to compare results on first and second oder moments of rewards between real and synthetic data. [1] A. Shamshad, M.A. Bawadi, W.M.W. Wan Hussin, T.A. Majid, S.A.M. Sanusi, First and second order Markov chain models for synthetic gen- eration of wind speed time series, Energy 30 (2005) 693-708. [2] H. Nfaoui, H. Essiarab, A.A.M. Sayigh, A stochastic Markov chain model for simulating wind speed time series at Tangiers, Morocco, Re- newable Energy 29 (2004) 1407-1418. [3] F. Youcef Ettoumi, H. Sauvageot, A.-E.-H. Adane, Statistical bivariate modeling of wind using first-order Markov chain and Weibull distribu- tion, Renewable Energy 28 (2003) 1787-1802. [4]F. Petroni, G. D'Amico, F. Prattico, Indexed semi-Markov process for wind speed modeling. To be submitted.

  6. Monte Carlo Simulation of Markov, Semi-Markov, and Generalized Semi- Markov Processes in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    English, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    A standard tool of reliability analysis used at NASA-JSC is the event tree. An event tree is simply a probability tree, with the probabilities determining the next step through the tree specified at each node. The nodal probabilities are determined by a reliability study of the physical system at work for a particular node. The reliability study performed at a node is typically referred to as a fault tree analysis, with the potential of a fault tree existing.for each node on the event tree. When examining an event tree it is obvious why the event tree/fault tree approach has been adopted. Typical event trees are quite complex in nature, and the event tree/fault tree approach provides a systematic and organized approach to reliability analysis. The purpose of this study was two fold. Firstly, we wanted to explore the possibility that a semi-Markov process can create dependencies between sojourn times (the times it takes to transition from one state to the next) that can decrease the uncertainty when estimating time to failures. Using a generalized semi-Markov model, we studied a four element reliability model and were able to demonstrate such sojourn time dependencies. Secondly, we wanted to study the use of semi-Markov processes to introduce a time variable into the event tree diagrams that are commonly developed in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) analyses. Event tree end states which change with time are more representative of failure scenarios than are the usual static probability-derived end states.

  7. Resilient model approximation for Markov jump time-delay systems via reduced model with hierarchical Markov chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Yanzheng; Zhang, Lixian; Sreeram, Victor; Shammakh, Wafa; Ahmad, Bashir

    2016-10-01

    In this paper, the resilient model approximation problem for a class of discrete-time Markov jump time-delay systems with input sector-bounded nonlinearities is investigated. A linearised reduced-order model is determined with mode changes subject to domination by a hierarchical Markov chain containing two different nonhomogeneous Markov chains. Hence, the reduced-order model obtained not only reflects the dependence of the original systems but also model external influence that is related to the mode changes of the original system. Sufficient conditions formulated in terms of bilinear matrix inequalities for the existence of such models are established, such that the resulting error system is stochastically stable and has a guaranteed l2-l∞ error performance. A linear matrix inequalities optimisation coupled with line search is exploited to solve for the corresponding reduced-order systems. The potential and effectiveness of the developed theoretical results are demonstrated via a numerical example.

  8. Data-driven approach to identify field-scale biogeochemical transitions using geochemical and geophysical data and hidden Markov models: Development and application at a uranium-contaminated aquifer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Jinsong; Hubbard, Susan S.; Williams, Kenneth H.

    2013-10-01

    Although mechanistic reaction networks have been developed to quantify the biogeochemical evolution of subsurface systems associated with bioremediation, it is difficult in practice to quantify the onset and distribution of these transitions at the field scale using commonly collected wellbore datasets. As an alternative approach to the mechanistic methods, we develop a data-driven, statistical model to identify biogeochemical transitions using various time-lapse aqueous geochemical data (e.g., Fe(II), sulfate, sulfide, acetate, and uranium concentrations) and induced polarization (IP) data. We assume that the biogeochemical transitions can be classified as several dominant states that correspond to redox transitions and test the method at a uranium-contaminated site. The relationships between the geophysical observations and geochemical time series vary depending upon the unknown underlying redox status, which is modeled as a hidden Markov random field. We estimate unknown parameters by maximizing the joint likelihood function using the maximization-expectation algorithm. The case study results show that when considered together aqueous geochemical data and IP imaginary conductivity provide a key diagnostic signature of biogeochemical stages. The developed method provides useful information for evaluating the effectiveness of bioremediation, such as the probability of being in specific redox stages following biostimulation where desirable pathways (e.g., uranium removal) are more highly favored. The use of geophysical data in the approach advances the possibility of using noninvasive methods to monitor critical biogeochemical system stages and transitions remotely and over field relevant scales (e.g., from square meters to several hectares).

  9. Generator estimation of Markov jump processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metzner, P.; Dittmer, E.; Jahnke, T.; Schütte, Ch.

    2007-11-01

    Estimating the generator of a continuous-time Markov jump process based on incomplete data is a problem which arises in various applications ranging from machine learning to molecular dynamics. Several methods have been devised for this purpose: a quadratic programming approach (cf. [D.T. Crommelin, E. Vanden-Eijnden, Fitting timeseries by continuous-time Markov chains: a quadratic programming approach, J. Comp. Phys. 217 (2006) 782-805]), a resolvent method (cf. [T. Müller, Modellierung von Proteinevolution, PhD thesis, Heidelberg, 2001]), and various implementations of an expectation-maximization algorithm ([S. Asmussen, O. Nerman, M. Olsson, Fitting phase-type distributions via the EM algorithm, Scand. J. Stat. 23 (1996) 419-441; I. Holmes, G.M. Rubin, An expectation maximization algorithm for training hidden substitution models, J. Mol. Biol. 317 (2002) 753-764; U. Nodelman, C.R. Shelton, D. Koller, Expectation maximization and complex duration distributions for continuous time Bayesian networks, in: Proceedings of the twenty-first conference on uncertainty in AI (UAI), 2005, pp. 421-430; M. Bladt, M. Sørensen, Statistical inference for discretely observed Markov jump processes, J.R. Statist. Soc. B 67 (2005) 395-410]). Some of these methods, however, seem to be known only in a particular research community, and have later been reinvented in a different context. The purpose of this paper is to compile a catalogue of existing approaches, to compare the strengths and weaknesses, and to test their performance in a series of numerical examples. These examples include carefully chosen model problems and an application to a time series from molecular dynamics.

  10. On Markov parameters in system identification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phan, Minh; Juang, Jer-Nan; Longman, Richard W.

    1991-01-01

    A detailed discussion of Markov parameters in system identification is given. Different forms of input-output representation of linear discrete-time systems are reviewed and discussed. Interpretation of sampled response data as Markov parameters is presented. Relations between the state-space model and particular linear difference models via the Markov parameters are formulated. A generalization of Markov parameters to observer and Kalman filter Markov parameters for system identification is explained. These extended Markov parameters play an important role in providing not only a state-space realization, but also an observer/Kalman filter for the system of interest.

  11. Markov counting models for correlated binary responses.

    PubMed

    Crawford, Forrest W; Zelterman, Daniel

    2015-07-01

    We propose a class of continuous-time Markov counting processes for analyzing correlated binary data and establish a correspondence between these models and sums of exchangeable Bernoulli random variables. Our approach generalizes many previous models for correlated outcomes, admits easily interpretable parameterizations, allows different cluster sizes, and incorporates ascertainment bias in a natural way. We demonstrate several new models for dependent outcomes and provide algorithms for computing maximum likelihood estimates. We show how to incorporate cluster-specific covariates in a regression setting and demonstrate improved fits to well-known datasets from familial disease epidemiology and developmental toxicology. PMID:25792624

  12. Markov counting models for correlated binary responses.

    PubMed

    Crawford, Forrest W; Zelterman, Daniel

    2015-07-01

    We propose a class of continuous-time Markov counting processes for analyzing correlated binary data and establish a correspondence between these models and sums of exchangeable Bernoulli random variables. Our approach generalizes many previous models for correlated outcomes, admits easily interpretable parameterizations, allows different cluster sizes, and incorporates ascertainment bias in a natural way. We demonstrate several new models for dependent outcomes and provide algorithms for computing maximum likelihood estimates. We show how to incorporate cluster-specific covariates in a regression setting and demonstrate improved fits to well-known datasets from familial disease epidemiology and developmental toxicology.

  13. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithm for Infrasound Atmospheric Sounding: Application to the Humming Roadrunner experiment in New Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lalande, Jean-Marie; Waxler, Roger; Velea, Doru

    2016-04-01

    As infrasonic waves propagate at long ranges through atmospheric ducts it has been suggested that observations of such waves can be used as a remote sensing techniques in order to update properties such as temperature and wind speed. In this study we investigate a new inverse approach based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This approach as the advantage of searching for the full Probability Density Function in the parameter space at a lower computational cost than extensive parameters search performed by the standard Monte Carlo approach. We apply this inverse methods to observations from the Humming Roadrunner experiment (New Mexico) and discuss implications for atmospheric updates, explosion characterization, localization and yield estimation.

  14. Alignment of multiple proteins with an ensemble of Hidden Markov Models

    PubMed Central

    Song, Yinglei; Qu, Junfeng; Hura, Gurdeep S.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we developed a new method that progressively construct and update a set of alignments by adding sequences in certain order to each of the existing alignments. Each of the existing alignments is modelled with a profile Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and an added sequence is aligned to each of these profile HMMs. We introduced an integer parameter for the number of profile HMMs. The profile HMMs are then updated based on the alignments with leading scores. Our experiments on BaliBASE showed that our approach could efficiently explore the alignment space and significantly improve the alignment accuracy. PMID:20376922

  15. Teaching Higher Order Thinking in the Introductory MIS Course: A Model-Directed Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Shouhong; Wang, Hai

    2011-01-01

    One vision of education evolution is to change the modes of thinking of students. Critical thinking, design thinking, and system thinking are higher order thinking paradigms that are specifically pertinent to business education. A model-directed approach to teaching and learning higher order thinking is proposed. An example of application of the…

  16. Regularized Deterministic Annealing Hidden Markov Models for Identificationand Analysis of Seismic and Aseismic events.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granat, R. A.; Clayton, R.; Kedar, S.; Kaneko, Y.

    2003-12-01

    We employ a robust hidden Markov model (HMM) based technique to perform statistical pattern analysis of suspected seismic and aseismic events in the poorly explored period band of minutes to hours. The technique allows us to classify known events and provides a statistical basis for finding and cataloging similar events represented elsewhere in the observations. In this work, we focus on data collected by the Southern California TriNet system. The hidden Markov model (HMM) approach assumes that the observed data has been generated by an unobservable dynamical statistical process. The process is of a particular form such that each observation is coincident with the system being in a particular discrete state. The dynamics are the model are constructed so that the next state is directly dependent only on the current state -- it is a first order Markov process. The model is completely described by a set of parameters: the initial state probabilities, the first order Markov chain state-to-state transition probabilities, and the probability distribution of observable outputs associated with each state. Application of the model to data involves optimizing these model parameters with respect to some function of the observations, typically the likelihood of the observations given the model. Our work focused on the fact that this objective function has a number of local maxima that is exponential in the model size (the number of states). This means that not only is it very difficult to discover the global maximum, but also that results can vary widely between applications of the model. For some domains which employ HMMs for such purposes, such as speech processing, sufficient a priori information about the system is available to avoid this problem. However, for seismic data in general such a priori information is not available. Our approach involves analytical location of sub-optimal local maxima; once the locations of these maxima have been found, then we can employ a

  17. Likelihood free inference for Markov processes: a comparison.

    PubMed

    Owen, Jamie; Wilkinson, Darren J; Gillespie, Colin S

    2015-04-01

    Approaches to Bayesian inference for problems with intractable likelihoods have become increasingly important in recent years. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and "likelihood free" Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are popular methods for tackling inference in these scenarios but such techniques are computationally expensive. In this paper we compare the two approaches to inference, with a particular focus on parameter inference for stochastic kinetic models, widely used in systems biology. Discrete time transition kernels for models of this type are intractable for all but the most trivial systems yet forward simulation is usually straightforward. We discuss the relative merits and drawbacks of each approach whilst considering the computational cost implications and efficiency of these techniques. In order to explore the properties of each approach we examine a range of observation regimes using two example models. We use a Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model to explore the impact of full or partial species observations using various time course observations under the assumption of known and unknown measurement error. Further investigation into the impact of observation error is then made using a Schlögl system, a test case which exhibits bi-modal state stability in some regions of parameter space. PMID:25720092

  18. Assessing the cost-effectiveness of medical treatments in acid-related diseases. The Markov chain approach applied to a comparison between intermittent and maintenance treatment of reflux esophagitis.

    PubMed

    Stålhammar, N O

    1993-01-01

    Escalating medical costs have made it increasingly important to carry out economic evaluations of drug therapy. In the area of acid-related diseases, much of the current interest is focused on comparisons between omeprazole and H2 receptor antagonists. After having discussed the basic methodology used in these analyses, viz. the decision-tree analysis, this paper presents an extension of this methodology, the Markov chain approach, which is more appropriate for analyses of longer time periods. Thereafter, this methodology is used to analyze the cost-effectiveness of omeprazole in intermittent versus maintenance treatment of reflux esophagitis. The cost data are from Sweden and the time period studied is one year. It is found that maintenance treatment provides 63 more healthy days per year at an extra direct cost of SEK 40 per day. From a sensitivity analysis it is concluded that the cost-effectiveness of intermittent versus maintenance treatment is mainly determined by the probability of relapse when off treatment, the severity of the symptoms in the case of a relapse and the value to the patient of a healthy day, i.e. a day free from reflux esophagitis. PMID:8171303

  19. On a Result for Finite Markov Chains

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kulathinal, Sangita; Ghosh, Lagnojita

    2006-01-01

    In an undergraduate course on stochastic processes, Markov chains are discussed in great detail. Textbooks on stochastic processes provide interesting properties of finite Markov chains. This note discusses one such property regarding the number of steps in which a state is reachable or accessible from another state in a finite Markov chain with M…

  20. Efficient maximum likelihood parameterization of continuous-time Markov processes

    PubMed Central

    McGibbon, Robert T.; Pande, Vijay S.

    2015-01-01

    Continuous-time Markov processes over finite state-spaces are widely used to model dynamical processes in many fields of natural and social science. Here, we introduce a maximum likelihood estimator for constructing such models from data observed at a finite time interval. This estimator is dramatically more efficient than prior approaches, enables the calculation of deterministic confidence intervals in all model parameters, and can easily enforce important physical constraints on the models such as detailed balance. We demonstrate and discuss the advantages of these models over existing discrete-time Markov models for the analysis of molecular dynamics simulations. PMID:26203016

  1. Assessment of optimized Markov models in protein fold classification.

    PubMed

    Lampros, Christos; Simos, Thomas; Exarchos, Themis P; Exarchos, Konstantinos P; Papaloukas, Costas; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I

    2014-08-01

    Protein fold classification is a challenging task strongly associated with the determination of proteins' structure. In this work, we tested an optimization strategy on a Markov chain and a recently introduced Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with reduced state-space topology. The proteins with unknown structure were scored against both these models. Then the derived scores were optimized following a local optimization method. The Protein Data Bank (PDB) and the annotation of the Structural Classification of Proteins (SCOP) database were used for the evaluation of the proposed methodology. The results demonstrated that the fold classification accuracy of the optimized HMM was substantially higher compared to that of the Markov chain or the reduced state-space HMM approaches. The proposed methodology achieved an accuracy of 41.4% on fold classification, while Sequence Alignment and Modeling (SAM), which was used for comparison, reached an accuracy of 38%. PMID:25152041

  2. Students' Progress throughout Examination Process as a Markov Chain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hlavatý, Robert; Dömeová, Ludmila

    2014-01-01

    The paper is focused on students of Mathematical methods in economics at the Czech university of life sciences (CULS) in Prague. The idea is to create a model of students' progress throughout the whole course using the Markov chain approach. Each student has to go through various stages of the course requirements where his success depends on the…

  3. Influence of credit scoring on the dynamics of Markov chain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galina, Timofeeva

    2015-11-01

    Markov processes are widely used to model the dynamics of a credit portfolio and forecast the portfolio risk and profitability. In the Markov chain model the loan portfolio is divided into several groups with different quality, which determined by presence of indebtedness and its terms. It is proposed that dynamics of portfolio shares is described by a multistage controlled system. The article outlines mathematical formalization of controls which reflect the actions of the bank's management in order to improve the loan portfolio quality. The most important control is the organization of approval procedure of loan applications. The credit scoring is studied as a control affecting to the dynamic system. Different formalizations of "good" and "bad" consumers are proposed in connection with the Markov chain model.

  4. Relative survival multistate Markov model.

    PubMed

    Huszti, Ella; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Alioum, Ahmadou; Binquet, Christine; Quantin, Catherine

    2012-02-10

    Prognostic studies often have to deal with two important challenges: (i) separating effects of predictions on different 'competing' events and (ii) uncertainty about cause of death. Multistate Markov models permit multivariable analyses of competing risks of, for example, mortality versus disease recurrence. On the other hand, relative survival methods help estimate disease-specific mortality risks even in the absence of data on causes of death. In this paper, we propose a new Markov relative survival (MRS) model that attempts to combine these two methodologies. Our MRS model extends the existing multistate Markov piecewise constant intensities model to relative survival modeling. The intensity of transitions leading to death in the MRS model is modeled as the sum of an estimable excess hazard of mortality from the disease of interest and an 'offset' defined as the expected hazard of all-cause 'natural' mortality obtained from relevant life-tables. We evaluate the new MRS model through simulations, with a design based on registry-based prognostic studies of colon cancer. Simulation results show almost unbiased estimates of prognostic factor effects for the MRS model. We also applied the new MRS model to reassess the role of prognostic factors for mortality in a study of colorectal cancer. The MRS model considerably reduces the bias observed with the conventional Markov model that does not permit accounting for unknown causes of death, especially if the 'true' effects of a prognostic factor on the two types of mortality differ substantially.

  5. Modelling modal gating of ion channels with hierarchical Markov models

    PubMed Central

    Fackrell, Mark; Crampin, Edmund J.; Taylor, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Many ion channels spontaneously switch between different levels of activity. Although this behaviour known as modal gating has been observed for a long time it is currently not well understood. Despite the fact that appropriately representing activity changes is essential for accurately capturing time course data from ion channels, systematic approaches for modelling modal gating are currently not available. In this paper, we develop a modular approach for building such a model in an iterative process. First, stochastic switching between modes and stochastic opening and closing within modes are represented in separate aggregated Markov models. Second, the continuous-time hierarchical Markov model, a new modelling framework proposed here, then enables us to combine these components so that in the integrated model both mode switching as well as the kinetics within modes are appropriately represented. A mathematical analysis reveals that the behaviour of the hierarchical Markov model naturally depends on the properties of its components. We also demonstrate how a hierarchical Markov model can be parametrized using experimental data and show that it provides a better representation than a previous model of the same dataset. Because evidence is increasing that modal gating reflects underlying molecular properties of the channel protein, it is likely that biophysical processes are better captured by our new approach than in earlier models.

  6. Modelling modal gating of ion channels with hierarchical Markov models

    PubMed Central

    Fackrell, Mark; Crampin, Edmund J.; Taylor, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Many ion channels spontaneously switch between different levels of activity. Although this behaviour known as modal gating has been observed for a long time it is currently not well understood. Despite the fact that appropriately representing activity changes is essential for accurately capturing time course data from ion channels, systematic approaches for modelling modal gating are currently not available. In this paper, we develop a modular approach for building such a model in an iterative process. First, stochastic switching between modes and stochastic opening and closing within modes are represented in separate aggregated Markov models. Second, the continuous-time hierarchical Markov model, a new modelling framework proposed here, then enables us to combine these components so that in the integrated model both mode switching as well as the kinetics within modes are appropriately represented. A mathematical analysis reveals that the behaviour of the hierarchical Markov model naturally depends on the properties of its components. We also demonstrate how a hierarchical Markov model can be parametrized using experimental data and show that it provides a better representation than a previous model of the same dataset. Because evidence is increasing that modal gating reflects underlying molecular properties of the channel protein, it is likely that biophysical processes are better captured by our new approach than in earlier models. PMID:27616917

  7. Markov transitions and the propagation of chaos

    SciTech Connect

    Gottlieb, A.

    1998-12-01

    The propagation of chaos is a central concept of kinetic theory that serves to relate the equations of Boltzmann and Vlasov to the dynamics of many-particle systems. Propagation of chaos means that molecular chaos, i.e., the stochastic independence of two random particles in a many-particle system, persists in time, as the number of particles tends to infinity. We establish a necessary and sufficient condition for a family of general n-particle Markov processes to propagate chaos. This condition is expressed in terms of the Markov transition functions associated to the n-particle processes, and it amounts to saying that chaos of random initial states propagates if it propagates for pure initial states. Our proof of this result relies on the weak convergence approach to the study of chaos due to Sztitman and Tanaka. We assume that the space in which the particles live is homomorphic to a complete and separable metric space so that we may invoke Prohorov's theorem in our proof. We also s how that, if the particles can be in only finitely many states, then molecular chaos implies that the specific entropies in the n-particle distributions converge to the entropy of the limiting single-particle distribution.

  8. Equilibrium Control Policies for Markov Chains

    SciTech Connect

    Malikopoulos, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    The average cost criterion has held great intuitive appeal and has attracted considerable attention. It is widely employed when controlling dynamic systems that evolve stochastically over time by means of formulating an optimization problem to achieve long-term goals efficiently. The average cost criterion is especially appealing when the decision-making process is long compared to other timescales involved, and there is no compelling motivation to select short-term optimization. This paper addresses the problem of controlling a Markov chain so as to minimize the average cost per unit time. Our approach treats the problem as a dual constrained optimization problem. We derive conditions guaranteeing that a saddle point exists for the new dual problem and we show that this saddle point is an equilibrium control policy for each state of the Markov chain. For practical situations with constraints consistent to those we study here, our results imply that recognition of such saddle points may be of value in deriving in real time an optimal control policy.

  9. Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Irreversibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ottobre, Michela

    2016-06-01

    Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are statistical methods designed to sample from a given measure π by constructing a Markov chain that has π as invariant measure and that converges to π. Most MCMC algorithms make use of chains that satisfy the detailed balance condition with respect to π; such chains are therefore reversible. On the other hand, recent work [18, 21, 28, 29] has stressed several advantages of using irreversible processes for sampling. Roughly speaking, irreversible diffusions converge to equilibrium faster (and lead to smaller asymptotic variance as well). In this paper we discuss some of the recent progress in the study of nonreversible MCMC methods. In particular: i) we explain some of the difficulties that arise in the analysis of nonreversible processes and we discuss some analytical methods to approach the study of continuous-time irreversible diffusions; ii) most of the rigorous results on irreversible diffusions are available for continuous-time processes; however, for computational purposes one needs to discretize such dynamics. It is well known that the resulting discretized chain will not, in general, retain all the good properties of the process that it is obtained from. In particular, if we want to preserve the invariance of the target measure, the chain might no longer be reversible. Therefore iii) we conclude by presenting an MCMC algorithm, the SOL-HMC algorithm [23], which results from a nonreversible discretization of a nonreversible dynamics.

  10. A Markov model of the Indus script.

    PubMed

    Rao, Rajesh P N; Yadav, Nisha; Vahia, Mayank N; Joglekar, Hrishikesh; Adhikari, R; Mahadevan, Iravatham

    2009-08-18

    Although no historical information exists about the Indus civilization (flourished ca. 2600-1900 B.C.), archaeologists have uncovered about 3,800 short samples of a script that was used throughout the civilization. The script remains undeciphered, despite a large number of attempts and claimed decipherments over the past 80 years. Here, we propose the use of probabilistic models to analyze the structure of the Indus script. The goal is to reveal, through probabilistic analysis, syntactic patterns that could point the way to eventual decipherment. We illustrate the approach using a simple Markov chain model to capture sequential dependencies between signs in the Indus script. The trained model allows new sample texts to be generated, revealing recurring patterns of signs that could potentially form functional subunits of a possible underlying language. The model also provides a quantitative way of testing whether a particular string belongs to the putative language as captured by the Markov model. Application of this test to Indus seals found in Mesopotamia and other sites in West Asia reveals that the script may have been used to express different content in these regions. Finally, we show how missing, ambiguous, or unreadable signs on damaged objects can be filled in with most likely predictions from the model. Taken together, our results indicate that the Indus script exhibits rich synactic structure and the ability to represent diverse content. both of which are suggestive of a linguistic writing system rather than a nonlinguistic symbol system. PMID:19666571

  11. On the capabilities of higher-order neurons: a radial basis function approach.

    PubMed

    Schmitt, Michael

    2005-03-01

    Higher-order neurons with k monomials in n variables are shown to have Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension at least nk + 1. This result supersedes the previously known lower bound obtained via k-term monotone disjunctive normal form (DNF) formulas. Moreover, it implies that the VC dimension of higher-order neurons with k monomials is strictly larger than the VC dimension of k-term monotone DNF. The result is achieved by introducing an exponential approach that employs gaussian radial basis function neural networks for obtaining classifications of points in terms of higher-order neurons.

  12. [Towards a clinical approach in institutions in order to enable dreams].

    PubMed

    Ponroy, Annabelle

    2013-01-01

    Care protocols and their proliferation tend to dampen the enthusiasm of professionals in their daily practice. An institution's clinical approach must be designed in terms of admission in order notto leave madness on the threshold of care. Trusting the enthusiasm and desire of nurses means favouring creativity within practices.

  13. Contemplative Practices and Orders of Consciousness: A Constructive-Developmental Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Silverstein, Charles H.

    2012-01-01

    This qualitative study explores the correspondence between contemplative practices and "orders of consciousness" from a constructive-developmental perspective, using Robert Kegan's approach. Adult developmental growth is becoming an increasingly important influence on humanity's ability to deal effectively with the growing…

  14. A unified approach for a posteriori high-order curved mesh generation using solid mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poya, Roman; Sevilla, Ruben; Gil, Antonio J.

    2016-09-01

    The paper presents a unified approach for the a posteriori generation of arbitrary high-order curvilinear meshes via a solid mechanics analogy. The approach encompasses a variety of methodologies, ranging from the popular incremental linear elastic approach to very sophisticated non-linear elasticity. In addition, an intermediate consistent incrementally linearised approach is also presented and applied for the first time in this context. Utilising a consistent derivation from energy principles, a theoretical comparison of the various approaches is presented which enables a detailed discussion regarding the material characterisation (calibration) employed for the different solid mechanics formulations. Five independent quality measures are proposed and their relations with existing quality indicators, used in the context of a posteriori mesh generation, are discussed. Finally, a comprehensive range of numerical examples, both in two and three dimensions, including challenging geometries of interest to the solids, fluids and electromagnetics communities, are shown in order to illustrate and thoroughly compare the performance of the different methodologies. This comparison considers the influence of material parameters and number of load increments on the quality of the generated high-order mesh, overall computational cost and, crucially, the approximation properties of the resulting mesh when considering an isoparametric finite element formulation.

  15. Markov random field surface reconstruction.

    PubMed

    Paulsen, Rasmus R; Baerentzen, Jakob Andreas; Larsen, Rasmus

    2010-01-01

    A method for implicit surface reconstruction is proposed. The novelty in this paper is the adaptation of Markov Random Field regularization of a distance field. The Markov Random Field formulation allows us to integrate both knowledge about the type of surface we wish to reconstruct (the prior) and knowledge about data (the observation model) in an orthogonal fashion. Local models that account for both scene-specific knowledge and physical properties of the scanning device are described. Furthermore, how the optimal distance field can be computed is demonstrated using conjugate gradients, sparse Cholesky factorization, and a multiscale iterative optimization scheme. The method is demonstrated on a set of scanned human heads and, both in terms of accuracy and the ability to close holes, the proposed method is shown to have similar or superior performance when compared to current state-of-the-art algorithms.

  16. Markov Tracking for Agent Coordination

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Washington, Richard; Lau, Sonie (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) axe an attractive representation for representing agent behavior, since they capture uncertainty in both the agent's state and its actions. However, finding an optimal policy for POMDPs in general is computationally difficult. In this paper we present Markov Tracking, a restricted problem of coordinating actions with an agent or process represented as a POMDP Because the actions coordinate with the agent rather than influence its behavior, the optimal solution to this problem can be computed locally and quickly. We also demonstrate the use of the technique on sequential POMDPs, which can be used to model a behavior that follows a linear, acyclic trajectory through a series of states. By imposing a "windowing" restriction that restricts the number of possible alternatives considered at any moment to a fixed size, a coordinating action can be calculated in constant time, making this amenable to coordination with complex agents.

  17. A Reconstruction Approach to High-Order Schemes Including Discontinuous Galerkin for Diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huynh, H. T.

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a new approach to high-order accuracy for the numerical solution of diffusion problems by solving the equations in differential form using a reconstruction technique. The approach has the advantages of simplicity and economy. It results in several new high-order methods including a simplified version of discontinuous Galerkin (DG). It also leads to new definitions of common value and common gradient quantities at each interface shared by the two adjacent cells. In addition, the new approach clarifies the relations among the various choices of new and existing common quantities. Fourier stability and accuracy analyses are carried out for the resulting schemes. Extensions to the case of quadrilateral meshes are obtained via tensor products. For the two-point boundary value problem (steady state), it is shown that these schemes, which include most popular DG methods, yield exact common interface quantities as well as exact cell average solutions for nearly all cases.

  18. Multiensemble Markov models of molecular thermodynamics and kinetics

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Hao; Paul, Fabian; Noé, Frank

    2016-01-01

    We introduce the general transition-based reweighting analysis method (TRAM), a statistically optimal approach to integrate both unbiased and biased molecular dynamics simulations, such as umbrella sampling or replica exchange. TRAM estimates a multiensemble Markov model (MEMM) with full thermodynamic and kinetic information at all ensembles. The approach combines the benefits of Markov state models—clustering of high-dimensional spaces and modeling of complex many-state systems—with those of the multistate Bennett acceptance ratio of exploiting biased or high-temperature ensembles to accelerate rare-event sampling. TRAM does not depend on any rate model in addition to the widely used Markov state model approximation, but uses only fundamental relations such as detailed balance and binless reweighting of configurations between ensembles. Previous methods, including the multistate Bennett acceptance ratio, discrete TRAM, and Markov state models are special cases and can be derived from the TRAM equations. TRAM is demonstrated by efficiently computing MEMMs in cases where other estimators break down, including the full thermodynamics and rare-event kinetics from high-dimensional simulation data of an all-atom protein–ligand binding model. PMID:27226302

  19. Symbolic Heuristic Search for Factored Markov Decision Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, Robert (Technical Monitor); Feng, Zheng-Zhu; Hansen, Eric A.

    2003-01-01

    We describe a planning algorithm that integrates two approaches to solving Markov decision processes with large state spaces. State abstraction is used to avoid evaluating states individually. Forward search from a start state, guided by an admissible heuristic, is used to avoid evaluating all states. We combine these two approaches in a novel way that exploits symbolic model-checking techniques and demonstrates their usefulness for decision-theoretic planning.

  20. Glaucoma progression detection using nonlocal Markov random field prior.

    PubMed

    Belghith, Akram; Bowd, Christopher; Medeiros, Felipe A; Balasubramanian, Madhusudhanan; Weinreb, Robert N; Zangwill, Linda M

    2014-10-01

    Glaucoma is neurodegenerative disease characterized by distinctive changes in the optic nerve head and visual field. Without treatment, glaucoma can lead to permanent blindness. Therefore, monitoring glaucoma progression is important to detect uncontrolled disease and the possible need for therapy advancement. In this context, three-dimensional (3-D) spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) has been commonly used in the diagnosis and management of glaucoma patients. We present a new framework for detection of glaucoma progression using 3-D SD-OCT images. In contrast to previous works that use the retinal nerve fiber layer thickness measurement provided by commercially available instruments, we consider the whole 3-D volume for change detection. To account for the spatial voxel dependency, we propose the use of the Markov random field (MRF) model as a prior for the change detection map. In order to improve the robustness of the proposed approach, a nonlocal strategy was adopted to define the MRF energy function. To accommodate the presence of false-positive detection, we used a fuzzy logic approach to classify a 3-D SD-OCT image into a "non-progressing" or "progressing" glaucoma class. We compared the diagnostic performance of the proposed framework to the existing methods of progression detection.

  1. Mapping eQTL Networks with Mixed Graphical Markov Models

    PubMed Central

    Tur, Inma; Roverato, Alberto; Castelo, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) mapping constitutes a challenging problem due to, among other reasons, the high-dimensional multivariate nature of gene-expression traits. Next to the expression heterogeneity produced by confounding factors and other sources of unwanted variation, indirect effects spread throughout genes as a result of genetic, molecular, and environmental perturbations. From a multivariate perspective one would like to adjust for the effect of all of these factors to end up with a network of direct associations connecting the path from genotype to phenotype. In this article we approach this challenge with mixed graphical Markov models, higher-order conditional independences, and q-order correlation graphs. These models show that additive genetic effects propagate through the network as function of gene–gene correlations. Our estimation of the eQTL network underlying a well-studied yeast data set leads to a sparse structure with more direct genetic and regulatory associations that enable a straightforward comparison of the genetic control of gene expression across chromosomes. Interestingly, it also reveals that eQTLs explain most of the expression variability of network hub genes. PMID:25271303

  2. Bayesian seismic tomography by parallel interacting Markov chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gesret, Alexandrine; Bottero, Alexis; Romary, Thomas; Noble, Mark; Desassis, Nicolas

    2014-05-01

    The velocity field estimated by first arrival traveltime tomography is commonly used as a starting point for further seismological, mineralogical, tectonic or similar analysis. In order to interpret quantitatively the results, the tomography uncertainty values as well as their spatial distribution are required. The estimated velocity model is obtained through inverse modeling by minimizing an objective function that compares observed and computed traveltimes. This step is often performed by gradient-based optimization algorithms. The major drawback of such local optimization schemes, beyond the possibility of being trapped in a local minimum, is that they do not account for the multiple possible solutions of the inverse problem. They are therefore unable to assess the uncertainties linked to the solution. Within a Bayesian (probabilistic) framework, solving the tomography inverse problem aims at estimating the posterior probability density function of velocity model using a global sampling algorithm. Markov chains Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods are known to produce samples of virtually any distribution. In such a Bayesian inversion, the total number of simulations we can afford is highly related to the computational cost of the forward model. Although fast algorithms have been recently developed for computing first arrival traveltimes of seismic waves, the complete browsing of the posterior distribution of velocity model is hardly performed, especially when it is high dimensional and/or multimodal. In the latter case, the chain may even stay stuck in one of the modes. In order to improve the mixing properties of classical single MCMC, we propose to make interact several Markov chains at different temperatures. This method can make efficient use of large CPU clusters, without increasing the global computational cost with respect to classical MCMC and is therefore particularly suited for Bayesian inversion. The exchanges between the chains allow a precise sampling of the

  3. Higher-order prediction terms and fixing the renormalization scale using the BLM approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirjalili, Abolfazl; Khellat, Mohammad Reza

    2014-12-01

    There is an ambiguity in the perturbative series of QCD observables on how to choose the renormalization and even more the factorization scale. There are many approaches to overcome this obstacle and to fix the scales. Among them, there is the Brodsky-Lepage-Mackenzie (BLM) approach which is based on an intriguing principle. Based on the BLM approach, we intend to absorb the nf-terms in the pQCD series that rightly determines the running behavior of the running coupling into the running coupling. We make an extensive use of the BLM approach to investigate the details of predicting higher order correction terms of some QCD observables. By this way we test different methods to improve the prediction process. It is also found out that an overall normalization could change BLM predictions effectively.

  4. The Analysis of Rush Orders Risk in Supply Chain: A Simulation Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mahfouz, Amr; Arisha, Amr

    2011-01-01

    Satisfying customers by delivering demands at agreed time, with competitive prices, and in satisfactory quality level are crucial requirements for supply chain survival. Incidence of risks in supply chain often causes sudden disruptions in the processes and consequently leads to customers losing their trust in a company's competence. Rush orders are considered to be one of the main types of supply chain risks due to their negative impact on the overall performance, Using integrated definition modeling approaches (i.e. IDEF0 & IDEF3) and simulation modeling technique, a comprehensive integrated model has been developed to assess rush order risks and examine two risk mitigation strategies. Detailed functions sequence and objects flow were conceptually modeled to reflect on macro and micro levels of the studied supply chain. Discrete event simulation models were then developed to assess and investigate the mitigation strategies of rush order risks, the objective of this is to minimize order cycle time and cost.

  5. Efficient high-order discontinuous Galerkin schemes with first-order hyperbolic advection-diffusion system approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazaheri, Alireza; Nishikawa, Hiroaki

    2016-09-01

    We propose arbitrary high-order discontinuous Galerkin (DG) schemes that are designed based on a first-order hyperbolic advection-diffusion formulation of the target governing equations. We present, in details, the efficient construction of the proposed high-order schemes (called DG-H), and show that these schemes have the same number of global degrees-of-freedom as comparable conventional high-order DG schemes, produce the same or higher order of accuracy solutions and solution gradients, are exact for exact polynomial functions, and do not need a second-derivative diffusion operator. We demonstrate that the constructed high-order schemes give excellent quality solution and solution gradients on irregular triangular elements. We also construct a Weighted Essentially Non-Oscillatory (WENO) limiter for the proposed DG-H schemes and apply it to discontinuous problems. We also make some accuracy comparisons with conventional DG and interior penalty schemes. A relative qualitative cost analysis is also reported, which indicates that the high-order schemes produce orders of magnitude more accurate results than the low-order schemes for a given CPU time. Furthermore, we show that the proposed DG-H schemes are nearly as efficient as the DG and Interior-Penalty (IP) schemes as these schemes produce results that are relatively at the same error level for approximately a similar CPU time.

  6. Approach for classification and taxonomy within family Rickettsiaceae based on the Formal Order Analysis.

    PubMed

    Shpynov, S; Pozdnichenko, N; Gumenuk, A

    2015-01-01

    Genome sequences of 36 Rickettsia and Orientia were analyzed using Formal Order Analysis (FOA). This approach takes into account arrangement of nucleotides in each sequence. A numerical characteristic, the average distance (remoteness) - "g" was used to compare of genomes. Our results corroborated previous separation of three groups within the genus Rickettsia, including typhus group, classic spotted fever group, and the ancestral group and Orientia as a separate genus. Rickettsia felis URRWXCal2 and R. akari Hartford were not in the same group based on FOA, therefore designation of a so-called transitional Rickettsia group could not be confirmed with this approach.

  7. Orbiting binary black hole evolutions with a multipatch high order finite-difference approach

    SciTech Connect

    Pazos, Enrique; Tiglio, Manuel; Duez, Matthew D.; Kidder, Lawrence E.; Teukolsky, Saul A.

    2009-07-15

    We present numerical simulations of orbiting black holes for around 12 cycles, using a high order multipatch approach. Unlike some other approaches, the computational speed scales almost perfectly for thousands of processors. Multipatch methods are an alternative to adaptive mesh refinement, with benefits of simplicity and better scaling for improving the resolution in the wave zone. The results presented here pave the way for multipatch evolutions of black hole-neutron star and neutron star-neutron star binaries, where high resolution grids are needed to resolve details of the matter flow.

  8. A partitioned model order reduction approach to rationalise computational expenses in nonlinear fracture mechanics

    PubMed Central

    Kerfriden, P.; Goury, O.; Rabczuk, T.; Bordas, S.P.A.

    2013-01-01

    We propose in this paper a reduced order modelling technique based on domain partitioning for parametric problems of fracture. We show that coupling domain decomposition and projection-based model order reduction permits to focus the numerical effort where it is most needed: around the zones where damage propagates. No a priori knowledge of the damage pattern is required, the extraction of the corresponding spatial regions being based solely on algebra. The efficiency of the proposed approach is demonstrated numerically with an example relevant to engineering fracture. PMID:23750055

  9. Multivariate longitudinal data analysis with mixed effects hidden Markov models.

    PubMed

    Raffa, Jesse D; Dubin, Joel A

    2015-09-01

    Multiple longitudinal responses are often collected as a means to capture relevant features of the true outcome of interest, which is often hidden and not directly measurable. We outline an approach which models these multivariate longitudinal responses as generated from a hidden disease process. We propose a class of models which uses a hidden Markov model with separate but correlated random effects between multiple longitudinal responses. This approach was motivated by a smoking cessation clinical trial, where a bivariate longitudinal response involving both a continuous and a binomial response was collected for each participant to monitor smoking behavior. A Bayesian method using Markov chain Monte Carlo is used. Comparison of separate univariate response models to the bivariate response models was undertaken. Our methods are demonstrated on the smoking cessation clinical trial dataset, and properties of our approach are examined through extensive simulation studies. PMID:25761965

  10. Mixture Hidden Markov Models in Finance Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dias, José G.; Vermunt, Jeroen K.; Ramos, Sofia

    Finite mixture models have proven to be a powerful framework whenever unobserved heterogeneity cannot be ignored. We introduce in finance research the Mixture Hidden Markov Model (MHMM) that takes into account time and space heterogeneity simultaneously. This approach is flexible in the sense that it can deal with the specific features of financial time series data, such as asymmetry, kurtosis, and unobserved heterogeneity. This methodology is applied to model simultaneously 12 time series of Asian stock markets indexes. Because we selected a heterogeneous sample of countries including both developed and emerging countries, we expect that heterogeneity in market returns due to country idiosyncrasies will show up in the results. The best fitting model was the one with two clusters at country level with different dynamics between the two regimes.

  11. Plume mapping via hidden Markov methods.

    PubMed

    Farrell, J A; Pang, Shuo; Li, Wei

    2003-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of mapping likely locations of a chemical source using an autonomous vehicle operating in a fluid flow. The paper reviews biological plume-tracing concepts, reviews previous strategies for vehicle-based plume tracing, and presents a new plume mapping approach based on hidden Markov methods (HMM). HMM provide efficient algorithms for predicting the likelihood of odor detection versus position, the likelihood of source location versus position, the most likely path taken by the odor to a given location, and the path between two points most likely to result in odor detection. All four are useful for solving the odor source localization problem using an autonomous vehicle. The vehicle is assumed to be capable of detecting above threshold chemical concentration and sensing the fluid flow velocity at the vehicle location. The fluid flow is assumed to vary with space and time, and to have a high Reynolds number (Re>10). PMID:18238238

  12. Markov state models of biomolecular conformational dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Chodera, John D.; Noé, Frank

    2014-01-01

    It has recently become practical to construct Markov state models (MSMs) that reproduce the long-time statistical conformational dynamics of biomolecules using data from molecular dynamics simulations. MSMs can predict both stationary and kinetic quantities on long timescales (e.g. milliseconds) using a set of atomistic molecular dynamics simulations that are individually much shorter, thus addressing the well-known sampling problem in molecular dynamics simulation. In addition to providing predictive quantitative models, MSMs greatly facilitate both the extraction of insight into biomolecular mechanism (such as folding and functional dynamics) and quantitative comparison with single-molecule and ensemble kinetics experiments. A variety of methodological advances and software packages now bring the construction of these models closer to routine practice. Here, we review recent progress in this field, considering theoretical and methodological advances, new software tools, and recent applications of these approaches in several domains of biochemistry and biophysics, commenting on remaining challenges. PMID:24836551

  13. Multiple alignment using hidden Markov models

    SciTech Connect

    Eddy, S.R.

    1995-12-31

    A simulated annealing method is described for training hidden Markov models and producing multiple sequence alignments from initially unaligned protein or DNA sequences. Simulated annealing in turn uses a dynamic programming algorithm for correctly sampling suboptimal multiple alignments according to their probability and a Boltzmann temperature factor. The quality of simulated annealing alignments is evaluated on structural alignments of ten different protein families, and compared to the performance of other HMM training methods and the ClustalW program. Simulated annealing is better able to find near-global optima in the multiple alignment probability landscape than the other tested HMM training methods. Neither ClustalW nor simulated annealing produce consistently better alignments compared to each other. Examination of the specific cases in which ClustalW outperforms simulated annealing, and vice versa, provides insight into the strengths and weaknesses of current hidden Maxkov model approaches.

  14. Growth and Dissolution of Macromolecular Markov Chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaspard, Pierre

    2016-07-01

    The kinetics and thermodynamics of free living copolymerization are studied for processes with rates depending on k monomeric units of the macromolecular chain behind the unit that is attached or detached. In this case, the sequence of monomeric units in the growing copolymer is a kth-order Markov chain. In the regime of steady growth, the statistical properties of the sequence are determined analytically in terms of the attachment and detachment rates. In this way, the mean growth velocity as well as the thermodynamic entropy production and the sequence disorder can be calculated systematically. These different properties are also investigated in the regime of depolymerization where the macromolecular chain is dissolved by the surrounding solution. In this regime, the entropy production is shown to satisfy Landauer's principle.

  15. Markov and semi-Markov processes as a failure rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grabski, Franciszek

    2016-06-01

    In this paper the reliability function is defined by the stochastic failure rate process with a non negative and right continuous trajectories. Equations for the conditional reliability functions of an object, under assumption that the failure rate is a semi-Markov process with an at most countable state space are derived. A proper theorem is presented. The linear systems of equations for the appropriate Laplace transforms allow to find the reliability functions for the alternating, the Poisson and the Furry-Yule failure rate processes.

  16. Behavior Detection using Confidence Intervals of Hidden Markov Models

    SciTech Connect

    Griffin, Christopher H

    2009-01-01

    Markov models are commonly used to analyze real-world problems. Their combination of discrete states and stochastic transitions is suited to applications with deterministic and stochastic components. Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a class of Markov model commonly used in pattern recognition. Currently, HMMs recognize patterns using a maximum likelihood approach. One major drawback with this approach is that data observations are mapped to HMMs without considering the number of data samples available. Another problem is that this approach is only useful for choosing between HMMs. It does not provide a criteria for determining whether or not a given HMM adequately matches the data stream. In this work, we recognize complex behaviors using HMMs and confidence intervals. The certainty of a data match increases with the number of data samples considered. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves are used to find the optimal threshold for either accepting or rejecting a HMM description. We present one example using a family of HMM's to show the utility of the proposed approach. A second example using models extracted from a database of consumer purchases provides additional evidence that this approach can perform better than existing techniques.

  17. Fuzzy Markov random fields versus chains for multispectral image segmentation.

    PubMed

    Salzenstein, Fabien; Collet, Christophe

    2006-11-01

    This paper deals with a comparison of recent statistical models based on fuzzy Markov random fields and chains for multispectral image segmentation. The fuzzy scheme takes into account discrete and continuous classes which model the imprecision of the hidden data. In this framework, we assume the dependence between bands and we express the general model for the covariance matrix. A fuzzy Markov chain model is developed in an unsupervised way. This method is compared with the fuzzy Markovian field model previously proposed by one of the authors. The segmentation task is processed with Bayesian tools, such as the well-known MPM (Mode of Posterior Marginals) criterion. Our goal is to compare the robustness and rapidity for both methods (fuzzy Markov fields versus fuzzy Markov chains). Indeed, such fuzzy-based procedures seem to be a good answer, e.g., for astronomical observations when the patterns present diffuse structures. Moreover, these approaches allow us to process missing data in one or several spectral bands which correspond to specific situations in astronomy. To validate both models, we perform and compare the segmentation on synthetic images and raw multispectral astronomical data.

  18. Fuzzy Markov random fields versus chains for multispectral image segmentation.

    PubMed

    Salzenstein, Fabien; Collet, Christophe

    2006-11-01

    This paper deals with a comparison of recent statistical models based on fuzzy Markov random fields and chains for multispectral image segmentation. The fuzzy scheme takes into account discrete and continuous classes which model the imprecision of the hidden data. In this framework, we assume the dependence between bands and we express the general model for the covariance matrix. A fuzzy Markov chain model is developed in an unsupervised way. This method is compared with the fuzzy Markovian field model previously proposed by one of the authors. The segmentation task is processed with Bayesian tools, such as the well-known MPM (Mode of Posterior Marginals) criterion. Our goal is to compare the robustness and rapidity for both methods (fuzzy Markov fields versus fuzzy Markov chains). Indeed, such fuzzy-based procedures seem to be a good answer, e.g., for astronomical observations when the patterns present diffuse structures. Moreover, these approaches allow us to process missing data in one or several spectral bands which correspond to specific situations in astronomy. To validate both models, we perform and compare the segmentation on synthetic images and raw multispectral astronomical data. PMID:17063681

  19. Comparing quantum versus Markov random walk models of judgements measured by rating scales

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Z.; Busemeyer, J. R.

    2016-01-01

    Quantum and Markov random walk models are proposed for describing how people evaluate stimuli using rating scales. To empirically test these competing models, we conducted an experiment in which participants judged the effectiveness of public health service announcements from either their own personal perspective or from the perspective of another person. The order of the self versus other judgements was manipulated, which produced significant sequential effects. The quantum and Markov models were fitted to the data using the same number of parameters, and the model comparison strongly supported the quantum over the Markov model. PMID:26621984

  20. Spreaders and sponges define metastasis in lung cancer: a Markov chain Monte Carlo mathematical model.

    PubMed

    Newton, Paul K; Mason, Jeremy; Bethel, Kelly; Bazhenova, Lyudmila; Nieva, Jorge; Norton, Larry; Kuhn, Peter

    2013-05-01

    The classic view of metastatic cancer progression is that it is a unidirectional process initiated at the primary tumor site, progressing to variably distant metastatic sites in a fairly predictable, although not perfectly understood, fashion. A Markov chain Monte Carlo mathematical approach can determine a pathway diagram that classifies metastatic tumors as "spreaders" or "sponges" and orders the timescales of progression from site to site. In light of recent experimental evidence highlighting the potential significance of self-seeding of primary tumors, we use a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, based on large autopsy data sets, to quantify the stochastic, systemic, and often multidirectional aspects of cancer progression. We quantify three types of multidirectional mechanisms of progression: (i) self-seeding of the primary tumor, (ii) reseeding of the primary tumor from a metastatic site (primary reseeding), and (iii) reseeding of metastatic tumors (metastasis reseeding). The model shows that the combined characteristics of the primary and the first metastatic site to which it spreads largely determine the future pathways and timescales of systemic disease. PMID:23447576

  1. The application of the Gibbs-Bogoliubov-Feynman inequality in mean field calculations for Markov random fields.

    PubMed

    Zhang, J

    1996-01-01

    The Gibbs-Bogoliubov-Feynman (GBF) inequality of statistical mechanics is adopted, with an information-theoretic interpretation, as a general optimization framework for deriving and examining various mean field approximations for Markov random fields (MRF's). The efficacy of this approach is demonstrated through the compound Gauss-Markov (CGM) model, comparisons between different mean field approximations, and experimental results in image restoration.

  2. A New Approach for Constructing Highly Stable High Order CESE Schemes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, Sin-Chung

    2010-01-01

    A new approach is devised to construct high order CESE schemes which would avoid the common shortcomings of traditional high order schemes including: (a) susceptibility to computational instabilities; (b) computational inefficiency due to their local implicit nature (i.e., at each mesh points, need to solve a system of linear/nonlinear equations involving all the mesh variables associated with this mesh point); (c) use of large and elaborate stencils which complicates boundary treatments and also makes efficient parallel computing much harder; (d) difficulties in applications involving complex geometries; and (e) use of problem-specific techniques which are needed to overcome stability problems but often cause undesirable side effects. In fact it will be shown that, with the aid of a conceptual leap, one can build from a given 2nd-order CESE scheme its 4th-, 6th-, 8th-,... order versions which have the same stencil and same stability conditions of the 2nd-order scheme, and also retain all other advantages of the latter scheme. A sketch of multidimensional extensions will also be provided.

  3. Crossing over...Markov meets Mendel.

    PubMed

    Mneimneh, Saad

    2012-01-01

    Chromosomal crossover is a biological mechanism to combine parental traits. It is perhaps the first mechanism ever taught in any introductory biology class. The formulation of crossover, and resulting recombination, came about 100 years after Mendel's famous experiments. To a great extent, this formulation is consistent with the basic genetic findings of Mendel. More importantly, it provides a mathematical insight for his two laws (and corrects them). From a mathematical perspective, and while it retains similarities, genetic recombination guarantees diversity so that we do not rapidly converge to the same being. It is this diversity that made the study of biology possible. In particular, the problem of genetic mapping and linkage-one of the first efforts towards a computational approach to biology-relies heavily on the mathematical foundation of crossover and recombination. Nevertheless, as students we often overlook the mathematics of these phenomena. Emphasizing the mathematical aspect of Mendel's laws through crossover and recombination will prepare the students to make an early realization that biology, in addition to being experimental, IS a computational science. This can serve as a first step towards a broader curricular transformation in teaching biological sciences. I will show that a simple and modern treatment of Mendel's laws using a Markov chain will make this step possible, and it will only require basic college-level probability and calculus. My personal teaching experience confirms that students WANT to know Markov chains because they hear about them from bioinformaticists all the time. This entire exposition is based on three homework problems that I designed for a course in computational biology. A typical reader is, therefore, an instructional staff member or a student in a computational field (e.g., computer science, mathematics, statistics, computational biology, bioinformatics). However, other students may easily follow by omitting the

  4. Crossing over...Markov meets Mendel.

    PubMed

    Mneimneh, Saad

    2012-01-01

    Chromosomal crossover is a biological mechanism to combine parental traits. It is perhaps the first mechanism ever taught in any introductory biology class. The formulation of crossover, and resulting recombination, came about 100 years after Mendel's famous experiments. To a great extent, this formulation is consistent with the basic genetic findings of Mendel. More importantly, it provides a mathematical insight for his two laws (and corrects them). From a mathematical perspective, and while it retains similarities, genetic recombination guarantees diversity so that we do not rapidly converge to the same being. It is this diversity that made the study of biology possible. In particular, the problem of genetic mapping and linkage-one of the first efforts towards a computational approach to biology-relies heavily on the mathematical foundation of crossover and recombination. Nevertheless, as students we often overlook the mathematics of these phenomena. Emphasizing the mathematical aspect of Mendel's laws through crossover and recombination will prepare the students to make an early realization that biology, in addition to being experimental, IS a computational science. This can serve as a first step towards a broader curricular transformation in teaching biological sciences. I will show that a simple and modern treatment of Mendel's laws using a Markov chain will make this step possible, and it will only require basic college-level probability and calculus. My personal teaching experience confirms that students WANT to know Markov chains because they hear about them from bioinformaticists all the time. This entire exposition is based on three homework problems that I designed for a course in computational biology. A typical reader is, therefore, an instructional staff member or a student in a computational field (e.g., computer science, mathematics, statistics, computational biology, bioinformatics). However, other students may easily follow by omitting the

  5. Optimal Control of Markov Processes with Age-Dependent Transition Rates

    SciTech Connect

    Ghosh, Mrinal K. Saha, Subhamay

    2012-10-15

    We study optimal control of Markov processes with age-dependent transition rates. The control policy is chosen continuously over time based on the state of the process and its age. We study infinite horizon discounted cost and infinite horizon average cost problems. Our approach is via the construction of an equivalent semi-Markov decision process. We characterise the value function and optimal controls for both discounted and average cost cases.

  6. Building Simple Hidden Markov Models. Classroom Notes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ching, Wai-Ki; Ng, Michael K.

    2004-01-01

    Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used in bioinformatics, speech recognition and many other areas. This note presents HMMs via the framework of classical Markov chain models. A simple example is given to illustrate the model. An estimation method for the transition probabilities of the hidden states is also discussed.

  7. Using Games to Teach Markov Chains

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Roger W.

    2003-01-01

    Games are promoted as examples for classroom discussion of stationary Markov chains. In a game context Markov chain terminology and results are made concrete, interesting, and entertaining. Game length for several-player games such as "Hi Ho! Cherry-O" and "Chutes and Ladders" is investigated and new, simple formulas are given. Slight…

  8. The sharp constant in Markov's inequality for the Laguerre weight

    SciTech Connect

    Sklyarov, Vyacheslav P

    2009-06-30

    We prove that the polynomial of degree n that deviates least from zero in the uniformly weighted metric with Laguerre weight is the extremal polynomial in Markov's inequality for the norm of the kth derivative. Moreover, the corresponding sharp constant does not exceed (8{sup k} n {exclamation_point} k {exclamation_point})/((n-k){exclamation_point} (2k){exclamation_point}). For the derivative of a fixed order this bound is asymptotically sharp as n{yields}{infinity}. Bibliography: 20 items.

  9. Technical note on probabilistic assessment of one-step-ahead rainfall variation by Split Markov Process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maity, R.; Prasad, D.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, Split Markov Process (SMP) is developed to assess one-step-ahead variation of daily rainfall at a rain gauge station. SMP is an advancement of general Markov Process (MP) and specially developed for probabilistic assessment of change in daily rainfall magnitude. The approach is based on a first-order Markov chain to simulate daily rainfall variation at a point through state/sub-state Transitional Probability Matrix (TPM). The state/sub-state TPM is based on the historical transitions from a particular state to a particular sub-state, which is the basic difference between SMP and general MP. In MP, the transition from a particular state to another state is investigated. However, in SMP, the daily rainfall magnitude is categorized into different states and change in magnitude from one temporal step to another is categorized into different sub-states for the probabilistic assessment of rainfall variation. The cumulative state/sub-state TPM is represented in a contour plot at different probability levels. The developed cumulative state/sub-state TPM is used to assess the possible range of rainfall in next time step, in a probabilistic sense. Application of SMP is investigated for daily rainfall at Khandwa station in the Nimar district of Madhya Pradesh, India. Eighty years of daily monsoon rainfall is used to develop the state/sub-state TPM and twenty years data is used to investigate its performance. It is observed that the predicted range of daily rainfall captures the actual observed rainfall with few exceptions. Overall, the assessed range, particularly the upper limit, provides a quantification possible extreme value in the next time step, which is very useful information to tackle the extreme events, such flooding, water logging etc.

  10. A preference-ordered discrete-gaming approach to air-combat analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelley, H. J.; Lefton, L.

    1978-01-01

    An approach to one-on-one air-combat analysis is described which employs discrete gaming of a parameterized model featuring choice between several closed-loop control policies. A preference-ordering formulation due to Falco is applied to rational choice between outcomes: win, loss, mutual capture, purposeful disengagement, draw. Approximate optimization is provided by an active-cell scheme similar to Falco's obtained by a 'backing up' process similar to that of Kopp. The approach is designed primarily for short-duration duels between craft with large-envelope weaponry. Some illustrative computations are presented for an example modeled using constant-speed vehicles and very rough estimation of energy shifts.

  11. Bearing fault identification by higher order energy operator fusion: A non-resonance based approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faghidi, H.; Liang, M.

    2016-10-01

    We report a non-resonance based approach to bearing fault detection. This is achieved by a higher order energy operator fusion (HOEO_F) method. In this method, multiple higher order energy operators are fused to form a single simple transform to process the bearing signal obscured by noise and vibration interferences. The fusion is guided by entropy minimization. Unlike the popular high frequency resonance technique, this method does not require the information of resonance excited by the bearing fault. The effects of the HOEO_F method on signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and signal-to-interference ratio (SIR) are illustrated in this paper. The performance of the proposed method in handling noise and interferences has been examined using both simulated and experimental data. The results indicate that the HOEO_F method outperforms both the envelope method and the original energy operator method.

  12. Unilateral pediatric "do not attempt resuscitation" orders: the pros, the cons, and a proposed approach.

    PubMed

    Mercurio, Mark R; Murray, Peter D; Gross, Ian

    2014-02-01

    A unilateral do not attempt resuscitation (DNAR) order is written by a physician without permission or assent from the patient or the patient's surrogate decision-maker. Potential justifications for the use of DNAR orders in pediatrics include the belief that attempted resuscitation offers no benefit to the patient or that the burdens would far outweigh the potential benefits. Another consideration is the patient's right to mercy, not to be made to undergo potentially painful interventions very unlikely to benefit the patient, and the physician's parallel obligation not to perform such interventions. Unilateral DNAR orders might be motivated in part by the moral distress caregivers sometimes experience when feeling forced by parents to participate in interventions that they believe are useless or cruel. Furthermore, some physicians believe that making these decisions without parental approval could spare parents needless additional emotional pain or a sense of guilt from making such a decision, particularly when imminent death is unavoidable. There are, however, several risks inherent in unilateral DNAR orders, such as overestimating one's ability to prognosticate or giving undue weight to the physician's values over those of parents, particularly with regard to predicted disability and quality of life. The law on the question of unilateral DNAR varies among states, and readers are encouraged to learn the law where they practice. Arguments in favor of, and opposed to, the use of unilateral DNAR orders are presented. In some settings, particularly when death is imminent regardless of whether resuscitation is attempted, unilateral DNAR orders should be viewed as an ethically permissible approach.

  13. A general approach to develop reduced order models for simulation of solid oxide fuel cell stacks

    SciTech Connect

    Pan, Wenxiao; Bao, Jie; Lo, Chaomei; Lai, Canhai; Agarwal, Khushbu; Koeppel, Brian J.; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2013-06-15

    A reduced order modeling approach based on response surface techniques was developed for solid oxide fuel cell stacks. This approach creates a numerical model that can quickly compute desired performance variables of interest for a stack based on its input parameter set. The approach carefully samples the multidimensional design space based on the input parameter ranges, evaluates a detailed stack model at each of the sampled points, and performs regression for selected performance variables of interest to determine the responsive surfaces. After error analysis to ensure that sufficient accuracy is established for the response surfaces, they are then implemented in a calculator module for system-level studies. The benefit of this modeling approach is that it is sufficiently fast for integration with system modeling software and simulation of fuel cell-based power systems while still providing high fidelity information about the internal distributions of key variables. This paper describes the sampling, regression, sensitivity, error, and principal component analyses to identify the applicable methods for simulating a planar fuel cell stack.

  14. Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian approach in reduced order modeling of a flow with a moving boundary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stankiewicz, W.; Roszak, R.; Morzyński, M.

    2013-06-01

    Flow-induced deflections of aircraft structures result in oscillations that might turn into such a dangerous phenomena like flutter or buffeting. In this paper the design of an aeroelastic system consisting of Reduced Order Model (ROM) of the flow with a moving boundary is presented. The model is based on Galerkin projection of governing equation onto space spanned by modes obtained from high-fidelity computations. The motion of the boundary and mesh is defined in Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) approach and results in additional convective term in Galerkin system. The developed system is demonstrated on the example of a flow around an oscillating wing.

  15. Action approach to cosmological perturbations: the second-order metric in matter dominance

    SciTech Connect

    Boubekeur, Lotfi; Creminelli, Paolo; Vernizzi, Filippo; Norena, Jorge

    2008-08-15

    We study nonlinear cosmological perturbations during post-inflationary evolution, using the equivalence between a perfect barotropic fluid and a derivatively coupled scalar field with Lagrangian [-({partial_derivative}{phi}){sup 2}]{sup (1+w)/2w}. Since this Lagrangian is just a special case of k-inflation, this approach is analogous to the one employed in the study of non-Gaussianities from inflation. We use this method to derive the second-order metric during matter dominance in the comoving gauge directly as a function of the primordial inflationary perturbation {zeta}. Going to Poisson gauge, we recover the metric previously derived in the literature.

  16. An approach for generating the first order structure of multi-movable zoom lens

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Qiang; Huang, Hao; Lv, Xiangbo; Zhu, Jing; Huang, Huijie

    2016-01-01

    This work provides a method to obtain the first order structure of a zoom system based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The kinematic rule of a zoom system with fixed image plane is described by differential equations. PSO algorithm is introduced to solve the differential equations with considering both the merit functions and the boundary constraint. The smooth of the kinematic function of the zoom system is checked for considering the fabrication feasibility. Examples with two types of zoom system are presented for verifying the proposed method. This approach provides a powerful and practical tool for construction of a zoom structure.

  17. A second order residual based predictor-corrector approach for time dependent pollutant transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavan, S.; Hervouet, J.-M.; Ricchiuto, M.; Ata, R.

    2016-08-01

    We present a second order residual distribution scheme for scalar transport problems in shallow water flows. The scheme, suitable for the unsteady cases, is obtained adapting to the shallow water context the explicit Runge-Kutta schemes for scalar equations [1]. The resulting scheme is decoupled from the hydrodynamics yet the continuity equation has to be considered in order to respect some important numerical properties at discrete level. Beyond the classical characteristics of the residual formulation presented in [1,2], we introduce the possibility to iterate the corrector step in order to improve the accuracy of the scheme. Another novelty is that the scheme is based on a precise monotonicity condition which guarantees the respect of the maximum principle. We thus end up with a scheme which is mass conservative, second order accurate and monotone. These properties are checked in the numerical tests, where the proposed approach is also compared to some finite volume schemes on unstructured grids. The results obtained show the interest in adopting the predictor-corrector scheme for pollutant transport applications, where conservation of the mass, monotonicity and accuracy are the most relevant concerns.

  18. A reduced-order approach to four-dimensional variational data assimilation using proper orthogonal decomposition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Yanhua; Zhu, Jiang; Navon, I. M.; Luo, Zhendong

    2007-04-01

    Four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) is a powerful tool for data assimilation in meteorology and oceanography. However, a major hurdle in use of 4DVAR for realistic general circulation models is the dimension of the control space (generally equal to the size of the model state variable and typically of order 107-108) and the high computational cost in computing the cost function and its gradient that require integration model and its adjoint model.In this paper, we propose a 4DVAR approach based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). POD is an efficient way to carry out reduced order modelling by identifying the few most energetic modes in a sequence of snapshots from a time-dependent system, and providing a means of obtaining a low-dimensional description of the system's dynamics. The POD-based 4DVAR not only reduces the dimension of control space, but also reduces the size of dynamical model, both in dramatic ways. The novelty of our approach also consists in the inclusion of adaptability, applied when in the process of iterative control the new control variables depart significantly from the ones on which the POD model was based upon. In addition, these approaches also allow to conveniently constructing the adjoint model.The proposed POD-based 4DVAR methods are tested and demonstrated using a reduced gravity wave ocean model in Pacific domain in the context of identical twin data assimilation experiments. A comparison with data assimilation experiments in the full model space shows that with an appropriate selection of the basis functions the optimization in the POD space is able to provide accurate results at a reduced computational cost. The POD-based 4DVAR methods have the potential to approximate the performance of full order 4DVAR with less than 1/100 computer time of the full order 4DVAR. The HFTN (Hessian-free truncated-Newton)algorithm benefits most from the order reduction (see (Int. J. Numer. Meth. Fluids, in press)) since

  19. A unidirectional approach for d-dimensional finite element methods for higher order on sparse grids

    SciTech Connect

    Bungartz, H.J.

    1996-12-31

    In the last years, sparse grids have turned out to be a very interesting approach for the efficient iterative numerical solution of elliptic boundary value problems. In comparison to standard (full grid) discretization schemes, the number of grid points can be reduced significantly from O(N{sup d}) to O(N(log{sub 2}(N)){sup d-1}) in the d-dimensional case, whereas the accuracy of the approximation to the finite element solution is only slightly deteriorated: For piecewise d-linear basis functions, e. g., an accuracy of the order O(N{sup - 2}(log{sub 2}(N)){sup d-1}) with respect to the L{sub 2}-norm and of the order O(N{sup -1}) with respect to the energy norm has been shown. Furthermore, regular sparse grids can be extended in a very simple and natural manner to adaptive ones, which makes the hierarchical sparse grid concept applicable to problems that require adaptive grid refinement, too. An approach is presented for the Laplacian on a uinit domain in this paper.

  20. Low rank approach to computing first and higher order derivatives using automatic differentiation

    SciTech Connect

    Reed, J. A.; Abdel-Khalik, H. S.; Utke, J.

    2012-07-01

    This manuscript outlines a new approach for increasing the efficiency of applying automatic differentiation (AD) to large scale computational models. By using the principles of the Efficient Subspace Method (ESM), low rank approximations of the derivatives for first and higher orders can be calculated using minimized computational resources. The output obtained from nuclear reactor calculations typically has a much smaller numerical rank compared to the number of inputs and outputs. This rank deficiency can be exploited to reduce the number of derivatives that need to be calculated using AD. The effective rank can be determined according to ESM by computing derivatives with AD at random inputs. Reduced or pseudo variables are then defined and new derivatives are calculated with respect to the pseudo variables. Two different AD packages are used: OpenAD and Rapsodia. OpenAD is used to determine the effective rank and the subspace that contains the derivatives. Rapsodia is then used to calculate derivatives with respect to the pseudo variables for the desired order. The overall approach is applied to two simple problems and to MATWS, a safety code for sodium cooled reactors. (authors)

  1. Next-to-leading order gravitational spin-orbit coupling in an effective field theory approach

    SciTech Connect

    Levi, Michele

    2010-11-15

    We use an effective field theory (EFT) approach to calculate the next-to-leading order (NLO) gravitational spin-orbit interaction between two spinning compact objects. The NLO spin-orbit interaction provides the most computationally complex sector of the NLO spin effects, previously derived within the EFT approach. In particular, it requires the inclusion of nonstationary cubic self-gravitational interaction, as well as the implementation of a spin supplementary condition (SSC) at higher orders. The EFT calculation is carried out in terms of the nonrelativistic gravitational field parametrization, making the calculation more efficient with no need to rely on automated computations, and illustrating the coupling hierarchy of the different gravitational field components to the spin and mass sources. Finally, we show explicitly how to relate the EFT derived spin results to the canonical results obtained with the Arnowitt-Deser-Misner (ADM) Hamiltonian formalism. This is done using noncanonical transformations, required due to the implementation of covariant SSC, as well as canonical transformations at the level of the Hamiltonian, with no need to resort to the equations of motion or the Dirac brackets.

  2. Reduced integral order 3D scalar wave integral equation Derivation and BEM approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, HyunSuk

    The Boundary Element Method (BEM) is a numerical method to solve partial differential equations (PDEs), which is derived from the integral equation (IE) that can be developed from certain PDEs. Among IEs, the 3D transient wave integral equation has a very special property which makes it distinguished from other integral equations; Dirac-delta and its derivative delta‧ appear in the fundamental-solution (or kernel-function). These delta and delta‧ generalized functions have continuity C-2 and C-3, respectively, and become a major hurdle for BEM implementation, because many numerical methods including BEM are based on the idea of continuity. More specifically, the integrands (kernel - shape function products) in the 3D transient wave IE become discontinuous (C-2 and C-3) and make numerical integration difficult. There are several existing approaches to overcome the delta difficulty, but none use the character of the Dirac-delta to cancel the integral. In this dissertation, a new method called the "Reduced order wave integral equation (Reduced IE)" is developed to deal with the difficulty in the 3D transient wave problem. In this approach, the sifting properties of delta and delta‧ are used to cancel an integration. As a result, smooth integrands are derived and the integral orders are reduced by one. Smooth integrands result in the more efficient and accurate numerical integration. In addition, there is no more coupling between the space-element size and time-step size. Non-zero initial condition (IC) can be considered also. Furthermore, space integrals need to be performed once, not per time-step. All of this reduces dramatically the computational requirement. As a result, the computation order for both time and space are reduced by 1 and one obtains an O(M N2) method, where M is the number of time steps and N is the number of spatial nodes on the boundary of the problem domain. A numerical approach to deal with the reduced IE is also suggested, and a simple

  3. Multiple testing for neuroimaging via hidden Markov random field.

    PubMed

    Shu, Hai; Nan, Bin; Koeppe, Robert

    2015-09-01

    Traditional voxel-level multiple testing procedures in neuroimaging, mostly p-value based, often ignore the spatial correlations among neighboring voxels and thus suffer from substantial loss of power. We extend the local-significance-index based procedure originally developed for the hidden Markov chain models, which aims to minimize the false nondiscovery rate subject to a constraint on the false discovery rate, to three-dimensional neuroimaging data using a hidden Markov random field model. A generalized expectation-maximization algorithm for maximizing the penalized likelihood is proposed for estimating the model parameters. Extensive simulations show that the proposed approach is more powerful than conventional false discovery rate procedures. We apply the method to the comparison between mild cognitive impairment, a disease status with increased risk of developing Alzheimer's or another dementia, and normal controls in the FDG-PET imaging study of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

  4. Multiple testing for neuroimaging via hidden Markov random field.

    PubMed

    Shu, Hai; Nan, Bin; Koeppe, Robert

    2015-09-01

    Traditional voxel-level multiple testing procedures in neuroimaging, mostly p-value based, often ignore the spatial correlations among neighboring voxels and thus suffer from substantial loss of power. We extend the local-significance-index based procedure originally developed for the hidden Markov chain models, which aims to minimize the false nondiscovery rate subject to a constraint on the false discovery rate, to three-dimensional neuroimaging data using a hidden Markov random field model. A generalized expectation-maximization algorithm for maximizing the penalized likelihood is proposed for estimating the model parameters. Extensive simulations show that the proposed approach is more powerful than conventional false discovery rate procedures. We apply the method to the comparison between mild cognitive impairment, a disease status with increased risk of developing Alzheimer's or another dementia, and normal controls in the FDG-PET imaging study of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. PMID:26012881

  5. Markov reliability models for digital flight control systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcgough, John; Reibman, Andrew; Trivedi, Kishor

    1989-01-01

    The reliability of digital flight control systems can often be accurately predicted using Markov chain models. The cost of numerical solution depends on a model's size and stiffness. Acyclic Markov models, a useful special case, are particularly amenable to efficient numerical solution. Even in the general case, instantaneous coverage approximation allows the reduction of some cyclic models to more readily solvable acyclic models. After considering the solution of single-phase models, the discussion is extended to phased-mission models. Phased-mission reliability models are classified based on the state restoration behavior that occurs between mission phases. As an economical approach for the solution of such models, the mean failure rate solution method is introduced. A numerical example is used to show the influence of fault-model parameters and interphase behavior on system unreliability.

  6. Photoassociation of a cold-atom-molecule pair. II. Second-order perturbation approach

    SciTech Connect

    Lepers, M.; Vexiau, R.; Bouloufa, N.; Dulieu, O.; Kokoouline, V.

    2011-04-15

    The electrostatic interaction between an excited atom and a diatomic ground-state molecule in an arbitrary rovibrational level at large mutual separations is investigated with a general second-order perturbation theory, in the perspective of modeling the photoassociation between cold atoms and molecules. We find that the combination of quadrupole-quadrupole and van der Waals interactions competes with the rotational energy of the dimer, limiting the range of validity of the perturbative approach to distances larger than 100 Bohr radii. Numerical results are given for the long-range interaction between Cs and Cs{sub 2}, showing that the photoassociation is probably efficient for any Cs{sub 2} rotational energy.

  7. Quantifying predictability variations in a low-order ocean-atmosphere model - A dynamical systems approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nese, Jon M.; Dutton, John A.

    1993-01-01

    The predictability of the weather and climatic states of a low-order moist general circulation model is quantified using a dynamic systems approach, and the effect of incorporating a simple oceanic circulation on predictability is evaluated. The predictability and the structure of the model attractors are compared using Liapunov exponents, local divergence rates, and the correlation and Liapunov dimensions. It was found that the activation of oceanic circulation increases the average error doubling time of the atmosphere and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system by 10 percent and decreases the variance of the largest local divergence rate by 20 percent. When an oceanic circulation develops, the average predictability of annually averaged states is improved by 25 percent and the variance of the largest local divergence rate decreases by 25 percent.

  8. Self-energy effects in the Polchinski and Wick-ordered renormalization-group approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katanin, A.

    2011-12-01

    I discuss functional renormalization group (fRG) schemes, which allow for non-perturbative treatment of the self-energy effects and do not rely on the one-particle irreducible functional. In particular, I consider the Polchinski or Wick-ordered scheme with amputation of full (instead of bare) Green functions, as well as more general schemes, and establish their relation to the ‘dynamical adjustment propagator’ scheme by Salmhofer (2007 Ann. Phys., Lpz. 16 171). While in the Polchinski scheme the amputation of full (instead of bare) Green functions improves treatment of the self-energy effects, the structure of the corresponding equations is not suitable to treat strong-coupling problems; it is also not evident how the mean-field solution of these problems is recovered in this scheme. For the Wick-ordered scheme, fully or partly excluding tadpole diagrams one can obtain forms of fRG hierarchy, which are suitable to treat strong-coupling problems. In particular, I emphasize the usefulness of the schemes, which are local in the cutoff parameter, and compare them to the one-particle irreducible approach.

  9. A regional scale landslide vulnerability assessment using a First Order Second Moment approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liliana Ciurean, Roxana; Zumpano, Veronica; Micu, Mihai; Glade, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    As risk is being created alongside economic growth, reducing vulnerability to local infrastructure, housing and livelihoods of communities affected by natural hazards constitutes a central issue worldwide. In recent years, quantitative risk assessment approaches have gained traction as issues related with the limited availability and resolution of data, model constrains and reliability of the analysis outcomes are recognized. This paper explores the applicability of a methodology for landslide vulnerability assessment based on a First Order Second Moment (FOSM) approach in a case study area where information about the intensity of landslides and resistance of the elements at risk to withstand the landslide action of a given degree of severity is limited. The FOSM approach provides analytical approximations for the mean and standard deviation of a parameter of interest as a function of the mean and standard deviations of the various input factors, and their correlations. A quantitative model is proposed to estimate the vulnerability of the exposed transportation infrastructure and built-up areas to shallow and medium-seated landslides as a function of their intensity and the characteristics of the elements at risk. The methodology is tested in Buzău County, Romania, a region where communities and the environment are severely affected by recurrent mass movement processes. The main advantages and limitations of the proposed methodology are outlined and recommendations for future improvements are given. The results of the proposed procedure can be directly used in a quantitative risk analysis and contribute to a better informed decision-making in the prescribed area of investigation.

  10. Entropy and long-range memory in random symbolic additive Markov chains.

    PubMed

    Melnik, S S; Usatenko, O V

    2016-06-01

    The goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the entropy of random symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. As a plausible model, we use the high-order additive stationary ergodic Markov chain with long-range memory. Supposing that the correlations between random elements of the chain are weak, we express the conditional entropy of the sequence by means of the symbolic pair correlation function. We also examine an algorithm for estimating the conditional entropy of finite symbolic sequences. We show that the entropy contains two contributions, i.e., the correlation and the fluctuation. The obtained analytical results are used for numerical evaluation of the entropy of written English texts and DNA nucleotide sequences. The developed theory opens the way for constructing a more consistent and sophisticated approach to describe the systems with strong short-range and weak long-range memory. PMID:27415245

  11. Entropy and long-range memory in random symbolic additive Markov chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melnik, S. S.; Usatenko, O. V.

    2016-06-01

    The goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the entropy of random symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. As a plausible model, we use the high-order additive stationary ergodic Markov chain with long-range memory. Supposing that the correlations between random elements of the chain are weak, we express the conditional entropy of the sequence by means of the symbolic pair correlation function. We also examine an algorithm for estimating the conditional entropy of finite symbolic sequences. We show that the entropy contains two contributions, i.e., the correlation and the fluctuation. The obtained analytical results are used for numerical evaluation of the entropy of written English texts and DNA nucleotide sequences. The developed theory opens the way for constructing a more consistent and sophisticated approach to describe the systems with strong short-range and weak long-range memory.

  12. Incorporating teleconnection information into reservoir operating policies using Stochastic Dynamic Programming and a Hidden Markov Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen

    2015-04-01

    Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating

  13. Dynamic Programming for Structured Continuous Markov Decision Problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dearden, Richard; Meuleau, Nicholas; Washington, Richard; Feng, Zhengzhu

    2004-01-01

    We describe an approach for exploiting structure in Markov Decision Processes with continuous state variables. At each step of the dynamic programming, the state space is dynamically partitioned into regions where the value function is the same throughout the region. We first describe the algorithm for piecewise constant representations. We then extend it to piecewise linear representations, using techniques from POMDPs to represent and reason about linear surfaces efficiently. We show that for complex, structured problems, our approach exploits the natural structure so that optimal solutions can be computed efficiently.

  14. Markov decision processes in natural resources management: observability and uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, Byron K.

    2015-01-01

    The breadth and complexity of stochastic decision processes in natural resources presents a challenge to analysts who need to understand and use these approaches. The objective of this paper is to describe a class of decision processes that are germane to natural resources conservation and management, namely Markov decision processes, and to discuss applications and computing algorithms under different conditions of observability and uncertainty. A number of important similarities are developed in the framing and evaluation of different decision processes, which can be useful in their applications in natural resources management. The challenges attendant to partial observability are highlighted, and possible approaches for dealing with it are discussed.

  15. Markov decision processes in natural resources management: Observability and uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.

    2009-01-01

    The breadth and complexity of stochastic decision processes in natural resources presents a challenge to analysts who need to understand and use these approaches. The objective of this paper is to describe a class of decision processes that are germane to natural resources conservation and management, namely Markov decision processes, and to discuss applications and computing algorithms under different conditions of observability and uncertainty. A number of important similarities are developed in the framing and evaluation of different decision processes, which can be useful in their applications in natural resources management. The challenges attendant to partial observability are highlighted, and possible approaches for dealing with it are discussed.

  16. Continuous-Time Semi-Markov Models in Health Economic Decision Making: An Illustrative Example in Heart Failure Disease Management.

    PubMed

    Cao, Qi; Buskens, Erik; Feenstra, Talitha; Jaarsma, Tiny; Hillege, Hans; Postmus, Douwe

    2016-01-01

    Continuous-time state transition models may end up having large unwieldy structures when trying to represent all relevant stages of clinical disease processes by means of a standard Markov model. In such situations, a more parsimonious, and therefore easier-to-grasp, model of a patient's disease progression can often be obtained by assuming that the future state transitions do not depend only on the present state (Markov assumption) but also on the past through time since entry in the present state. Despite that these so-called semi-Markov models are still relatively straightforward to specify and implement, they are not yet routinely applied in health economic evaluation to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative interventions. To facilitate a better understanding of this type of model among applied health economic analysts, the first part of this article provides a detailed discussion of what the semi-Markov model entails and how such models can be specified in an intuitive way by adopting an approach called vertical modeling. In the second part of the article, we use this approach to construct a semi-Markov model for assessing the long-term cost-effectiveness of 3 disease management programs for heart failure. Compared with a standard Markov model with the same disease states, our proposed semi-Markov model fitted the observed data much better. When subsequently extrapolating beyond the clinical trial period, these relatively large differences in goodness-of-fit translated into almost a doubling in mean total cost and a 60-d decrease in mean survival time when using the Markov model instead of the semi-Markov model. For the disease process considered in our case study, the semi-Markov model thus provided a sensible balance between model parsimoniousness and computational complexity.

  17. Regional land salinization assessment and simulation through cellular automaton-Markov modeling and spatial pattern analysis.

    PubMed

    Zhou, De; Lin, Zhulu; Liu, Liming

    2012-11-15

    Land salinization and desalinization are complex processes affected by both biophysical and human-induced driving factors. Conventional approaches of land salinization assessment and simulation are either too time consuming or focus only on biophysical factors. The cellular automaton (CA)-Markov model, when coupled with spatial pattern analysis, is well suited for regional assessments and simulations of salt-affected landscapes since both biophysical and socioeconomic data can be efficiently incorporated into a geographic information system framework. Our hypothesis set forth that the CA-Markov model can serve as an alternative tool for regional assessment and simulation of land salinization or desalinization. Our results suggest that the CA-Markov model, when incorporating biophysical and human-induced factors, performs better than the model which did not account for these factors when simulating the salt-affected landscape of the Yinchuan Plain (China) in 2009. In general, the CA-Markov model is best suited for short-term simulations and the performance of the CA-Markov model is largely determined by the availability of high-quality, high-resolution socioeconomic data. The coupling of the CA-Markov model with spatial pattern analysis provides an improved understanding of spatial and temporal variations of salt-affected landscape changes and an option to test different soil management scenarios for salinity management.

  18. Regional land salinization assessment and simulation through cellular automaton-Markov modeling and spatial pattern analysis.

    PubMed

    Zhou, De; Lin, Zhulu; Liu, Liming

    2012-11-15

    Land salinization and desalinization are complex processes affected by both biophysical and human-induced driving factors. Conventional approaches of land salinization assessment and simulation are either too time consuming or focus only on biophysical factors. The cellular automaton (CA)-Markov model, when coupled with spatial pattern analysis, is well suited for regional assessments and simulations of salt-affected landscapes since both biophysical and socioeconomic data can be efficiently incorporated into a geographic information system framework. Our hypothesis set forth that the CA-Markov model can serve as an alternative tool for regional assessment and simulation of land salinization or desalinization. Our results suggest that the CA-Markov model, when incorporating biophysical and human-induced factors, performs better than the model which did not account for these factors when simulating the salt-affected landscape of the Yinchuan Plain (China) in 2009. In general, the CA-Markov model is best suited for short-term simulations and the performance of the CA-Markov model is largely determined by the availability of high-quality, high-resolution socioeconomic data. The coupling of the CA-Markov model with spatial pattern analysis provides an improved understanding of spatial and temporal variations of salt-affected landscape changes and an option to test different soil management scenarios for salinity management. PMID:23085467

  19. Towards automatic Markov reliability modeling of computer architectures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liceaga, C. A.; Siewiorek, D. P.

    1986-01-01

    The analysis and evaluation of reliability measures using time-varying Markov models is required for Processor-Memory-Switch (PMS) structures that have competing processes such as standby redundancy and repair, or renewal processes such as transient or intermittent faults. The task of generating these models is tedious and prone to human error due to the large number of states and transitions involved in any reasonable system. Therefore model formulation is a major analysis bottleneck, and model verification is a major validation problem. The general unfamiliarity of computer architects with Markov modeling techniques further increases the necessity of automating the model formulation. This paper presents an overview of the Automated Reliability Modeling (ARM) program, under development at NASA Langley Research Center. ARM will accept as input a description of the PMS interconnection graph, the behavior of the PMS components, the fault-tolerant strategies, and the operational requirements. The output of ARM will be the reliability of availability Markov model formulated for direct use by evaluation programs. The advantages of such an approach are (a) utility to a large class of users, not necessarily expert in reliability analysis, and (b) a lower probability of human error in the computation.

  20. Computation of image spatial entropy using quadrilateral Markov random field.

    PubMed

    Razlighi, Qolamreza R; Kehtarnavaz, Nasser; Nosratinia, Aria

    2009-12-01

    Shannon entropy is a powerful tool in image analysis, but its reliable computation from image data faces an inherent dimensionality problem that calls for a low-dimensional and closed form model for the pixel value distributions. The most promising such models are Markovian, however, the conventional Markov random field is hampered by noncausality and its causal versions are also not free of difficulties. For example, the Markov mesh random field has its own limitations due to the strong diagonal dependency in its local neighboring system. A new model, named quadrilateral Markov random field (QMRF) is introduced in this paper in order to overcome these limitations. A property of QMRF with neighboring size of 2 is then used to decompose an image prior into a product of 2-D joint pdfs in which they are estimated using a joint histogram under the homogeneity assumption. In addition, the paper includes an extension of the introduced method to the computation of image spatial mutual information. Comparisons on synthesized images as well as two applications with real images are presented to motivate the developments in this paper and demonstrate the advantages in the performance of the introduced method over the existing ones.

  1. Algorithms for Discovery of Multiple Markov Boundaries

    PubMed Central

    Statnikov, Alexander; Lytkin, Nikita I.; Lemeire, Jan; Aliferis, Constantin F.

    2013-01-01

    Algorithms for Markov boundary discovery from data constitute an important recent development in machine learning, primarily because they offer a principled solution to the variable/feature selection problem and give insight on local causal structure. Over the last decade many sound algorithms have been proposed to identify a single Markov boundary of the response variable. Even though faithful distributions and, more broadly, distributions that satisfy the intersection property always have a single Markov boundary, other distributions/data sets may have multiple Markov boundaries of the response variable. The latter distributions/data sets are common in practical data-analytic applications, and there are several reasons why it is important to induce multiple Markov boundaries from such data. However, there are currently no sound and efficient algorithms that can accomplish this task. This paper describes a family of algorithms TIE* that can discover all Markov boundaries in a distribution. The broad applicability as well as efficiency of the new algorithmic family is demonstrated in an extensive benchmarking study that involved comparison with 26 state-of-the-art algorithms/variants in 15 data sets from a diversity of application domains. PMID:25285052

  2. Hidden Markov Models: The Best Models for Forager Movements?

    PubMed Central

    Joo, Rocio; Bertrand, Sophie; Tam, Jorge; Fablet, Ronan

    2013-01-01

    One major challenge in the emerging field of movement ecology is the inference of behavioural modes from movement patterns. This has been mainly addressed through Hidden Markov models (HMMs). We propose here to evaluate two sets of alternative and state-of-the-art modelling approaches. First, we consider hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs). They may better represent the behavioural dynamics of foragers since they explicitly model the duration of the behavioural modes. Second, we consider discriminative models which state the inference of behavioural modes as a classification issue, and may take better advantage of multivariate and non linear combinations of movement pattern descriptors. For this work, we use a dataset of >200 trips from human foragers, Peruvian fishermen targeting anchovy. Their movements were recorded through a Vessel Monitoring System (∼1 record per hour), while their behavioural modes (fishing, searching and cruising) were reported by on-board observers. We compare the efficiency of hidden Markov, hidden semi-Markov, and three discriminative models (random forests, artificial neural networks and support vector machines) for inferring the fishermen behavioural modes, using a cross-validation procedure. HSMMs show the highest accuracy (80%), significantly outperforming HMMs and discriminative models. Simulations show that data with higher temporal resolution, HSMMs reach nearly 100% of accuracy. Our results demonstrate to what extent the sequential nature of movement is critical for accurately inferring behavioural modes from a trajectory and we strongly recommend the use of HSMMs for such purpose. In addition, this work opens perspectives on the use of hybrid HSMM-discriminative models, where a discriminative setting for the observation process of HSMMs could greatly improve inference performance. PMID:24058400

  3. Fusion moves for Markov random field optimization.

    PubMed

    Lempitsky, Victor; Rother, Carsten; Roth, Stefan; Blake, Andrew

    2010-08-01

    The efficient application of graph cuts to Markov Random Fields (MRFs) with multiple discrete or continuous labels remains an open question. In this paper, we demonstrate one possible way of achieving this by using graph cuts to combine pairs of suboptimal labelings or solutions. We call this combination process the fusion move. By employing recently developed graph-cut-based algorithms (so-called QPBO-graph cut), the fusion move can efficiently combine two proposal labelings in a theoretically sound way, which is in practice often globally optimal. We demonstrate that fusion moves generalize many previous graph-cut approaches, which allows them to be used as building blocks within a broader variety of optimization schemes than were considered before. In particular, we propose new optimization schemes for computer vision MRFs with applications to image restoration, stereo, and optical flow, among others. Within these schemes the fusion moves are used 1) for the parallelization of MRF optimization into several threads, 2) for fast MRF optimization by combining cheap-to-compute solutions, and 3) for the optimization of highly nonconvex continuous-labeled MRFs with 2D labels. Our final example is a nonvision MRF concerned with cartographic label placement, where fusion moves can be used to improve the performance of a standard inference method (loopy belief propagation).

  4. Causal Latent Markov Model for the Comparison of Multiple Treatments in Observational Longitudinal Studies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bartolucci, Francesco; Pennoni, Fulvia; Vittadini, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    We extend to the longitudinal setting a latent class approach that was recently introduced by Lanza, Coffman, and Xu to estimate the causal effect of a treatment. The proposed approach enables an evaluation of multiple treatment effects on subpopulations of individuals from a dynamic perspective, as it relies on a latent Markov (LM) model that is…

  5. Triangular Alignment (TAME). A Tensor-based Approach for Higher-order Network Alignment

    SciTech Connect

    Mohammadi, Shahin; Gleich, David F.; Kolda, Tamara G.; Grama, Ananth

    2015-11-01

    Network alignment is an important tool with extensive applications in comparative interactomics. Traditional approaches aim to simultaneously maximize the number of conserved edges and the underlying similarity of aligned entities. We propose a novel formulation of the network alignment problem that extends topological similarity to higher-order structures and provide a new objective function that maximizes the number of aligned substructures. This objective function corresponds to an integer programming problem, which is NP-hard. Consequently, we approximate this objective function as a surrogate function whose maximization results in a tensor eigenvalue problem. Based on this formulation, we present an algorithm called Triangular AlignMEnt (TAME), which attempts to maximize the number of aligned triangles across networks. We focus on alignment of triangles because of their enrichment in complex networks; however, our formulation and resulting algorithms can be applied to general motifs. Using a case study on the NAPABench dataset, we show that TAME is capable of producing alignments with up to 99% accuracy in terms of aligned nodes. We further evaluate our method by aligning yeast and human interactomes. Our results indicate that TAME outperforms the state-of-art alignment methods both in terms of biological and topological quality of the alignments.

  6. CONDENSED MATTER: STRUCTURE, THERMAL AND MECHANICAL PROPERTIES: A novel approach to topological defects in a vector order parameter system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Ji-Rong; Rong, Shu-Jun; Zhu, Tao

    2009-07-01

    Based on Duan's topological current theory, we propose a novel approach to study the topological properties of topological defects in a two-dimensional complex vector order parameter system. This method shows explicitly the fine topological structure of defects. The branch processes of defects in the vector order parameter system have also been investigated with this method.

  7. Semi-Markov adjunction to the Computer-Aided Markov Evaluator (CAME)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosch, Gene; Hutchins, Monica A.; Leong, Frank J.; Babcock, Philip S., IV

    1988-01-01

    The rule-based Computer-Aided Markov Evaluator (CAME) program was expanded in its ability to incorporate the effect of fault-handling processes into the construction of a reliability model. The fault-handling processes are modeled as semi-Markov events and CAME constructs and appropriate semi-Markov model. To solve the model, the program outputs it in a form which can be directly solved with the Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator (SURE) program. As a means of evaluating the alterations made to the CAME program, the program is used to model the reliability of portions of the Integrated Airframe/Propulsion Control System Architecture (IAPSA 2) reference configuration. The reliability predictions are compared with a previous analysis. The results bear out the feasibility of utilizing CAME to generate appropriate semi-Markov models to model fault-handling processes.

  8. Facies Reconstruction by hidden Markov models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panzeri, M.; Della Rossa, E.; Dovera, L.; Riva, M.; Guadagnini, A.

    2012-04-01

    The inherent heterogeneity of natural aquifer complex systems can be properly described by a doubly stochastic composite medium approach, where distributions of geomaterials (facies) and attributes, e.g., hydraulic conductivity and porosity, can be uncertain. We focus on the reconstruction of the spatial distribution of facies within a porous medium. The key contribution of our work is to provide a methodology for evaluating the unknown facies distribution while maintaining the spatial correlation between the geological bodies. The latter is considered to be known a priori. The geostatistical model for the spatial distribution of facies is defined in the framework of multiple-point geostatistics, relying on transition probabilities (Stien and Kolbjornsen, 2011). Specifically, we model the facies distribution over the domain by employing the notion of Hidden Markov Model. The hidden states of the system are provided by the value of the indicator function at each cell of the grid, while the the petrophysical properties of the soil (e.g., the permeability) are considered as known. In this context, the key issue is the assessment of the spatial architecture of the geological bodies within the domain of interest upon maximizing the probability associated with a given permeability distribution. This objective is achieved through the Viterbi algorithm. This algorithm was initially introduced for signal denoising problems (e.g., Rabiner, 1989) and has been extended here to a two-dimensional system, following the approach proposed by Li et al. (2000) according to the following steps: (1) the parameters of the transitional probabilities of the facies distribution are estimated from a given training image; (2) the facies distribution maximizing the probability of occurrence considering the probability of (i) facies distribution, (ii) conductivity distribution and (iii) their joint conditional probability is then reconstructed. We demonstrate the reliability and advantage of

  9. First-order irreversible thermodynamic approach to a simple energy converter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arias-Hernandez, L. A.; Angulo-Brown, F.; Paez-Hernandez, R. T.

    2008-01-01

    Several authors have shown that dissipative thermal cycle models based on finite-time thermodynamics exhibit loop-shaped curves of power output versus efficiency, such as it occurs with actual dissipative thermal engines. Within the context of first-order irreversible thermodynamics (FOIT), in this work we show that for an energy converter consisting of two coupled fluxes it is also possible to find loop-shaped curves of both power output and the so-called ecological function versus efficiency. In a previous work Stucki [J. W. Stucki, Eur. J. Biochem. 109, 269 (1980)] used a FOIT approach to describe the modes of thermodynamic performance of oxidative phosphorylation involved in adenosine triphosphate (ATP) synthesis within mithochondrias. In that work the author did not use the mentioned loop-shaped curves and he proposed that oxidative phosphorylation operates in a steady state at both minimum entropy production and maximum efficiency simultaneously, by means of a conductance matching condition between extreme states of zero and infinite conductances, respectively. In the present work we show that all Stucki’s results about the oxidative phosphorylation energetics can be obtained without the so-called conductance matching condition. On the other hand, we also show that the minimum entropy production state implies both null power output and efficiency and therefore this state is not fulfilled by the oxidative phosphorylation performance. Our results suggest that actual efficiency values of oxidative phosphorylation performance are better described by a mode of operation consisting of the simultaneous maximization of both the so-called ecological function and the efficiency.

  10. Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bochkarev, V. V.; Lerner, E. Yu

    2014-03-01

    This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different.

  11. Handling target obscuration through Markov chain observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kouritzin, Michael A.; Wu, Biao

    2008-04-01

    Target Obscuration, including foliage or building obscuration of ground targets and landscape or horizon obscuration of airborne targets, plagues many real world filtering problems. In particular, ground moving target identification Doppler radar, mounted on a surveillance aircraft or unattended airborne vehicle, is used to detect motion consistent with targets of interest. However, these targets try to obscure themselves (at least partially) by, for example, traveling along the edge of a forest or around buildings. This has the effect of creating random blockages in the Doppler radar image that move dynamically and somewhat randomly through this image. Herein, we address tracking problems with target obscuration by building memory into the observations, eschewing the usual corrupted, distorted partial measurement assumptions of filtering in favor of dynamic Markov chain assumptions. In particular, we assume the observations are a Markov chain whose transition probabilities depend upon the signal. The state of the observation Markov chain attempts to depict the current obscuration and the Markov chain dynamics are used to handle the evolution of the partially obscured radar image. Modifications of the classical filtering equations that allow observation memory (in the form of a Markov chain) are given. We use particle filters to estimate the position of the moving targets. Moreover, positive proof-of-concept simulations are included.

  12. AIRWAY LABELING USING A HIDDEN MARKOV TREE MODEL

    PubMed Central

    Ross, James C.; Díaz, Alejandro A.; Okajima, Yuka; Wassermann, Demian; Washko, George R.; Dy, Jennifer; San José Estépar, Raúl

    2014-01-01

    We present a novel airway labeling algorithm based on a Hidden Markov Tree Model (HMTM). We obtain a collection of discrete points along the segmented airway tree using particles sampling [1] and establish topology using Kruskal’s minimum spanning tree algorithm. Following this, our HMTM algorithm probabilistically assigns labels to each point. While alternative methods label airway branches out to the segmental level, we describe a general method and demonstrate its performance out to the subsubsegmental level (two generations further than previously published approaches). We present results on a collection of 25 computed tomography (CT) datasets taken from a Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) study. PMID:25436039

  13. Hidden Markov Modeling for Weigh-In-Motion Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Ferragut, Erik M; Boone, Shane

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes a hidden Markov model to assist in the weight measurement error that arises from complex vehicle oscillations of a system of discrete masses. Present reduction of oscillations is by a smooth, flat, level approach and constant, slow speed in a straight line. The model uses this inherent variability to assist in determining the true total weight and individual axle weights of a vehicle. The weight distribution dynamics of a generic moving vehicle were simulated. The model estimation converged to within 1% of the true mass for simulated data. The computational demands of this method, while much greater than simple averages, took only seconds to run on a desktop computer.

  14. Improved Hidden-Markov-Model Method Of Detecting Faults

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smyth, Padhraic J.

    1994-01-01

    Method of automated, continuous monitoring to detect faults in complicated dynamic system based on hidden-Markov-model (HMM) approach. Simpler than another, recently proposed HMM method, but retains advantages of that method, including low susceptibility to false alarms, no need for mathematical model of dynamics of system under normal or faulty conditions, and ability to detect subtle changes in characteristics of monitored signals. Examples of systems monitored by use of this method include motors, turbines, and pumps critical in their applications; chemical-processing plants; powerplants; and biomedical systems.

  15. Stratification of the phase clouds and statistical effects of the non-Markovity in chaotic time series of human gait for healthy people and Parkinson patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yulmetyev, Renat; Demin, Sergey; Emelyanova, Natalya; Gafarov, Fail; Hänggi, Peter

    2003-03-01

    In this work we develop a new method of diagnosing the nervous system diseases and a new approach in studying human gait dynamics with the help of the theory of discrete non-Markov random processes (Phys. Rev. E 62 (5) (2000) 6178, Phys. Rev. E 64 (2001) 066132, Phys. Rev. E 65 (2002) 046107, Physica A 303 (2002) 427). The stratification of the phase clouds and the statistical non-Markov effects in the time series of the dynamics of human gait are considered. We carried out the comparative analysis of the data of four age groups of healthy people: children (from 3 to 10 year olds), teenagers (from 11 to 14 year olds), young people (from 21 up to 29 year olds), elderly persons (from 71 to 77 year olds) and Parkinson patients. The full data set are analyzed with the help of the phase portraits of the four dynamic variables, the power spectra of the initial time correlation function and the memory functions of junior orders, the three first points in the spectra of the statistical non-Markov parameter. The received results allow to define the predisposition of the probationers to deflections in the central nervous system caused by Parkinson's disease. We have found out distinct differences between the five submitted groups. On this basis we offer a new method of diagnostics and forecasting Parkinson's disease.

  16. Policy Transfer via Markov Logic Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torrey, Lisa; Shavlik, Jude

    We propose using a statistical-relational model, the Markov Logic Network, for knowledge transfer in reinforcement learning. Our goal is to extract relational knowledge from a source task and use it to speed up learning in a related target task. We show that Markov Logic Networks are effective models for capturing both source-task Q-functions and source-task policies. We apply them via demonstration, which involves using them for decision making in an initial stage of the target task before continuing to learn. Through experiments in the RoboCup simulated-soccer domain, we show that transfer via Markov Logic Networks can significantly improve early performance in complex tasks, and that transferring policies is more effective than transferring Q-functions.

  17. On multitarget pairwise-Markov models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahler, Ronald

    2015-05-01

    Single- and multi-target tracking are both typically based on strong independence assumptions regarding both the target states and sensor measurements. In particular, both are theoretically based on the hidden Markov chain (HMC) model. That is, the target process is a Markov chain that is observed by an independent observation process. Since HMC assumptions are invalid in many practical applications, the pairwise Markov chain (PMC) model has been proposed as a way to weaken those assumptions. In this paper it is shown that the PMC model can be directly generalized to multitarget problems. Since the resulting tracking filters are computationally intractable, the paper investigates generalizations of the cardinalized probability hypothesis density (CPHD) filter to applications with PMC models.

  18. Markov chains for testing redundant software

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    White, Allan L.; Sjogren, Jon A.

    1988-01-01

    A preliminary design for a validation experiment has been developed that addresses several problems unique to assuring the extremely high quality of multiple-version programs in process-control software. The procedure uses Markov chains to model the error states of the multiple version programs. The programs are observed during simulated process-control testing, and estimates are obtained for the transition probabilities between the states of the Markov chain. The experimental Markov chain model is then expanded into a reliability model that takes into account the inertia of the system being controlled. The reliability of the multiple version software is computed from this reliability model at a given confidence level using confidence intervals obtained for the transition probabilities during the experiment. An example demonstrating the method is provided.

  19. An explicit approach to conceptual density functional theory descriptors of arbitrary order

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heidar-Zadeh, Farnaz; Richer, Michael; Fias, Stijn; Miranda-Quintana, Ramón Alain; Chan, Matthew; Franco-Pérez, Marco; González-Espinoza, Cristina E.; Kim, Taewon David; Lanssens, Caitlin; Patel, Anand H. G.; Yang, Xiaotian Derrick; Vöhringer-Martinez, Esteban; Cárdenas, Carlos; Verstraelen, Toon; Ayers, Paul W.

    2016-09-01

    We present explicit formulas for arbitrary-order derivatives of the energy, grand potential, electron density, and higher-order response functions with respect to the number of electrons, and the chemical potential for any smooth and differentiable model of the energy versus the number of electrons. The resulting expressions for global reactivity descriptors (hyperhardnesses and hypersoftnesses), local reactivity descriptors (hyperFukui functions and local hypersoftnesses), and nonlocal response functions are easy to evaluate computationally. Specifically, the explicit formulas for global/local/nonlocal hypersoftnesses of arbitrary order are derived using Bell polynomials. Explicit expressions for global and local hypersoftness indicators up to fifth order are presented.

  20. Modeling stereopsis via Markov random field.

    PubMed

    Ming, Yansheng; Hu, Zhanyi

    2010-08-01

    Markov random field (MRF) and belief propagation have given birth to stereo vision algorithms with top performance. This article explores their biological plausibility. First, an MRF model guided by physiological and psychophysical facts was designed. Typically an MRF-based stereo vision algorithm employs a likelihood function that reflects the local similarity of two regions and a potential function that models the continuity constraint. In our model, the likelihood function is constructed on the basis of the disparity energy model because complex cells are considered as front-end disparity encoders in the visual pathway. Our likelihood function is also relevant to several psychological findings. The potential function in our model is constrained by the psychological finding that the strength of the cooperative interaction minimizing relative disparity decreases as the separation between stimuli increases. Our model is tested on three kinds of stereo images. In simulations on images with repetitive patterns, we demonstrate that our model could account for the human depth percepts that were previously explained by the second-order mechanism. In simulations on random dot stereograms and natural scene images, we demonstrate that false matches introduced by the disparity energy model can be reliably removed using our model. A comparison with the coarse-to-fine model shows that our model is able to compute the absolute disparity of small objects with larger relative disparity. We also relate our model to several physiological findings. The hypothesized neurons of the model are selective for absolute disparity and have facilitative extra receptive field. There are plenty of such neurons in the visual cortex. In conclusion, we think that stereopsis can be implemented by neural networks resembling MRF.

  1. On Markov Earth Mover’s Distance

    PubMed Central

    Wei, Jie

    2015-01-01

    In statistics, pattern recognition and signal processing, it is of utmost importance to have an effective and efficient distance to measure the similarity between two distributions and sequences. In statistics this is referred to as goodness-of-fit problem. Two leading goodness of fit methods are chi-square and Kolmogorov–Smirnov distances. The strictly localized nature of these two measures hinders their practical utilities in patterns and signals where the sample size is usually small. In view of this problem Rubner and colleagues developed the earth mover’s distance (EMD) to allow for cross-bin moves in evaluating the distance between two patterns, which find a broad spectrum of applications. EMD-L1 was later proposed to reduce the time complexity of EMD from super-cubic by one order of magnitude by exploiting the special L1 metric. EMD-hat was developed to turn the global EMD to a localized one by discarding long-distance earth movements. In this work, we introduce a Markov EMD (MEMD) by treating the source and destination nodes absolutely symmetrically. In MEMD, like hat-EMD, the earth is only moved locally as dictated by the degree d of neighborhood system. Nodes that cannot be matched locally is handled by dummy source and destination nodes. By use of this localized network structure, a greedy algorithm that is linear to the degree d and number of nodes is then developed to evaluate the MEMD. Empirical studies on the use of MEMD on deterministic and statistical synthetic sequences and SIFT-based image retrieval suggested encouraging performances. PMID:25983362

  2. Entropy Computation in Partially Observed Markov Chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desbouvries, François

    2006-11-01

    Let X = {Xn}n∈N be a hidden process and Y = {Yn}n∈N be an observed process. We assume that (X,Y) is a (pairwise) Markov Chain (PMC). PMC are more general than Hidden Markov Chains (HMC) and yet enable the development of efficient parameter estimation and Bayesian restoration algorithms. In this paper we propose a fast (i.e., O(N)) algorithm for computing the entropy of {Xn}n=0N given an observation sequence {yn}n=0N.

  3. Highly ordered nanocomposites via a monomer self-assembly in situ condensation approach

    DOEpatents

    Gin, Douglas L.; Fischer, Walter M.; Gray, David H.; Smith, Ryan C.

    1998-01-01

    A method for synthesizing composites with architectural control on the nanometer scale is described. A polymerizable lyotropic liquid-crystalline monomer is used to form an inverse hexagonal phase in the presence of a second polymer precursor solution. The monomer system acts as an organic template, providing the underlying matrix and order of the composite system. Polymerization of the template in the presence of an optional cross-linking agent with retention of the liquid-crystalline order is carried out followed by a second polymerization of the second polymer precursor within the channels of the polymer template to provide an ordered nanocomposite material.

  4. Highly ordered nanocomposites via a monomer self-assembly in situ condensation approach

    DOEpatents

    Gin, D.L.; Fischer, W.M.; Gray, D.H.; Smith, R.C.

    1998-12-15

    A method for synthesizing composites with architectural control on the nanometer scale is described. A polymerizable lyotropic liquid-crystalline monomer is used to form an inverse hexagonal phase in the presence of a second polymer precursor solution. The monomer system acts as an organic template, providing the underlying matrix and order of the composite system. Polymerization of the template in the presence of an optional cross-linking agent with retention of the liquid-crystalline order is carried out followed by a second polymerization of the second polymer precursor within the channels of the polymer template to provide an ordered nanocomposite material. 13 figs.

  5. New General Approach for Normally Ordering Coordinate-Momentum Operator Functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Shi-Min; Xu, Xing-Lei; Li, Hong-Qi; Fan, Hong-Yi

    2016-09-01

    By virtue of integration technique within ordered product of operators and Dirac's representation theory we find a new general formula for normally ordering coordinate-momentum operator functions, that is f(ghat {{Q}}+hhat {P})= :exp [{g2+h2 over 4}{{partial 2} over {partial (ghat {{Q}}+hhat {P})2}}]f(ghat {{Q}}+hhat {P}):, where hat {Q} and hat {P} are the coordinate operator and momentum operator respectively, the symbol :: denotes normal ordering. Using this formula we can derive a series of new relations about Hermite polynomial and Laguerre polynomial, as well as some new differential relations.

  6. MARKOV Model Application to Proliferation Risk Reduction of an Advanced Nuclear System

    SciTech Connect

    Bari,R.A.

    2008-07-13

    The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) emphasizes proliferation resistance and physical protection (PR&PP) as a main goal for future nuclear energy systems. The GIF PR&PP Working Group has developed a methodology for the evaluation of these systems. As an application of the methodology, Markov model has been developed for the evaluation of proliferation resistance and is demonstrated for a hypothetical Example Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR) system. This paper presents the case of diversion by the facility owner/operator to obtain material that could be used in a nuclear weapon. The Markov model is applied to evaluate material diversion strategies. The following features of the Markov model are presented here: (1) An effective detection rate has been introduced to account for the implementation of multiple safeguards approaches at a given strategic point; (2) Technical failure to divert material is modeled as intrinsic barriers related to the design of the facility or the properties of the material in the facility; and (3) Concealment to defeat or degrade the performance of safeguards is recognized in the Markov model. Three proliferation risk measures are calculated directly by the Markov model: the detection probability, technical failure probability, and proliferation time. The material type is indicated by an index that is based on the quality of material diverted. Sensitivity cases have been done to demonstrate the effects of different modeling features on the measures of proliferation resistance.

  7. Prediction of User's Web-Browsing Behavior: Application of Markov Model.

    PubMed

    Awad, M A; Khalil, I

    2012-08-01

    Web prediction is a classification problem in which we attempt to predict the next set of Web pages that a user may visit based on the knowledge of the previously visited pages. Predicting user's behavior while serving the Internet can be applied effectively in various critical applications. Such application has traditional tradeoffs between modeling complexity and prediction accuracy. In this paper, we analyze and study Markov model and all- Kth Markov model in Web prediction. We propose a new modified Markov model to alleviate the issue of scalability in the number of paths. In addition, we present a new two-tier prediction framework that creates an example classifier EC, based on the training examples and the generated classifiers. We show that such framework can improve the prediction time without compromising prediction accuracy. We have used standard benchmark data sets to analyze, compare, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our techniques using variations of Markov models and association rule mining. Our experiments show the effectiveness of our modified Markov model in reducing the number of paths without compromising accuracy. Additionally, the results support our analysis conclusions that accuracy improves with higher orders of all- Kth model. PMID:22394580

  8. Verbal Working Memory and Language Production: Common Approaches to the Serial Ordering of Verbal Information

    PubMed Central

    Acheson, Daniel J.; MacDonald, Maryellen C.

    2010-01-01

    Verbal working memory (WM) tasks typically involve the language production architecture for recall; however, language production processes have had a minimal role in theorizing about WM. A framework for understanding verbal WM results is presented here. In this framework, domain-specific mechanisms for serial ordering in verbal WM are provided by the language production architecture, in which positional, lexical, and phonological similarity constraints are highly similar to those identified in the WM literature. These behavioral similarities are paralleled in computational modeling of serial ordering in both fields. The role of long-term learning in serial ordering performance is emphasized, in contrast to some models of verbal WM. Classic WM findings are discussed in terms of the language production architecture. The integration of principles from both fields illuminates the maintenance and ordering mechanisms for verbal information. PMID:19210053

  9. A Quasi-Lie Schemes Approach to Second-Order Gambier Equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cariñena, José F.; Guha, Partha; de Lucas, Javier

    2013-03-01

    A quasi-Lie scheme is a geometric structure that provides t-dependent changes of variables transforming members of an associated family of systems of first-order differential equations into members of the same family. In this note we introduce two quasi-Lie schemes for studying second-order Gambier equations in a geometric way. This allows us to study the transformation of these equations into simpler canonical forms, which solves a gap in the previous literature, and other relevant differential equations, which leads to derive new constants of motion for families of second-order Gambier equations. Additionally, we describe general solutions of certain second-order Gambier equations in terms of particular solutions of Riccati equations, linear systems, and t-dependent frequency harmonic oscillators.

  10. Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Zhibiao

    2011-01-01

    We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise. PMID:21750601

  11. ASSIST - THE ABSTRACT SEMI-MARKOV SPECIFICATION INTERFACE TO THE SURE TOOL PROGRAM (VAX VMS VERSION)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, S. C.

    1994-01-01

    for which the transition is valid. The second expression defines the destination state for the transition in terms of state space variable values. The third expression defines the distribution of elapsed time for the transition. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. ASSIST was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The VMS version (LAR14193) is written in C-language and can be compiled with the VAX C compiler. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of ASSIST is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The Sun version (LAR14923) is written in ANSI C-language. An ANSI compliant C compiler is required in order to compile this package. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of ASSIST is a

  12. ASSIST - THE ABSTRACT SEMI-MARKOV SPECIFICATION INTERFACE TO THE SURE TOOL PROGRAM (SUN VERSION)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, S. C.

    1994-01-01

    for which the transition is valid. The second expression defines the destination state for the transition in terms of state space variable values. The third expression defines the distribution of elapsed time for the transition. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. ASSIST was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The VMS version (LAR14193) is written in C-language and can be compiled with the VAX C compiler. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of ASSIST is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The Sun version (LAR14923) is written in ANSI C-language. An ANSI compliant C compiler is required in order to compile this package. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of ASSIST is a

  13. Trajectory classification using switched dynamical hidden Markov models.

    PubMed

    Nascimento, Jacinto C; Figueiredo, Mario; Marques, Jorge S

    2010-05-01

    This paper proposes an approach for recognizing human activities (more specifically, pedestrian trajectories) in video sequences, in a surveillance context. A system for automatic processing of video information for surveillance purposes should be capable of detecting, recognizing, and collecting statistics of human activity, reducing human intervention as much as possible. In the method described in this paper, human trajectories are modeled as a concatenation of segments produced by a set of low level dynamical models. These low level models are estimated in an unsupervised fashion, based on a finite mixture formulation, using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm; the number of models is automatically obtained using a minimum message length (MML) criterion. This leads to a parsimonious set of models tuned to the complexity of the scene. We describe the switching among the low-level dynamic models by a hidden Markov chain; thus, the complete model is termed a switched dynamical hidden Markov model (SD-HMM). The performance of the proposed method is illustrated with real data from two different scenarios: a shopping center and a university campus. A set of human activities in both scenarios is successfully recognized by the proposed system. These experiments show the ability of our approach to properly describe trajectories with sudden changes.

  14. Trajectory classification using switched dynamical hidden Markov models.

    PubMed

    Nascimento, Jacinto C; Figueiredo, Mario; Marques, Jorge S

    2010-05-01

    This paper proposes an approach for recognizing human activities (more specifically, pedestrian trajectories) in video sequences, in a surveillance context. A system for automatic processing of video information for surveillance purposes should be capable of detecting, recognizing, and collecting statistics of human activity, reducing human intervention as much as possible. In the method described in this paper, human trajectories are modeled as a concatenation of segments produced by a set of low level dynamical models. These low level models are estimated in an unsupervised fashion, based on a finite mixture formulation, using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm; the number of models is automatically obtained using a minimum message length (MML) criterion. This leads to a parsimonious set of models tuned to the complexity of the scene. We describe the switching among the low-level dynamic models by a hidden Markov chain; thus, the complete model is termed a switched dynamical hidden Markov model (SD-HMM). The performance of the proposed method is illustrated with real data from two different scenarios: a shopping center and a university campus. A set of human activities in both scenarios is successfully recognized by the proposed system. These experiments show the ability of our approach to properly describe trajectories with sudden changes. PMID:20051342

  15. Maximum a posteriori blind image deconvolution with Huber-Markov random-field regularization.

    PubMed

    Xu, Zhimin; Lam, Edmund Y

    2009-05-01

    We propose a maximum a posteriori blind deconvolution approach using a Huber-Markov random-field model. Compared with the conventional maximum-likelihood method, our algorithm not only suppresses noise effectively but also significantly alleviates the artifacts produced by the deconvolution process. The performance of this method is demonstrated by computer simulations.

  16. Modelling Faculty Replacement Strategies Using a Time-Dependent Finite Markov-Chain Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hackett, E. Raymond; Magg, Alexander A.; Carrigan, Sarah D.

    1999-01-01

    Describes the use of a time-dependent Markov-chain model to develop faculty-replacement strategies within a college at a research university. The study suggests that a stochastic modelling approach can provide valuable insight when planning for personnel needs in the immediate (five-to-ten year) future. (MSE)

  17. Markov Modeling of Component Fault Growth over a Derived Domain of Feasible Output Control Effort Modifications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bole, Brian; Goebel, Kai; Vachtsevanos, George

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a novel Markov process formulation of stochastic fault growth modeling, in order to facilitate the development and analysis of prognostics-based control adaptation. A metric representing the relative deviation between the nominal output of a system and the net output that is actually enacted by an implemented prognostics-based control routine, will be used to define the action space of the formulated Markov process. The state space of the Markov process will be defined in terms of an abstracted metric representing the relative health remaining in each of the system s components. The proposed formulation of component fault dynamics will conveniently relate feasible system output performance modifications to predictions of future component health deterioration.

  18. Obesity status transitions across the elementary years: Use of Markov chain modeling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Overweight and obesity status transition probabilities using first-order Markov transition models applied to elementary school children were assessed. Complete longitudinal data across eleven assessments were available from 1,494 elementary school children (from 7,599 students in 41 out of 45 school...

  19. Markov Chain-Like Quantum Biological Modeling of Mutations, Aging, and Evolution

    PubMed Central

    Djordjevic, Ivan B.

    2015-01-01

    Recent evidence suggests that quantum mechanics is relevant in photosynthesis, magnetoreception, enzymatic catalytic reactions, olfactory reception, photoreception, genetics, electron-transfer in proteins, and evolution; to mention few. In our recent paper published in Life, we have derived the operator-sum representation of a biological channel based on codon basekets, and determined the quantum channel model suitable for study of the quantum biological channel capacity. However, this model is essentially memoryless and it is not able to properly model the propagation of mutation errors in time, the process of aging, and evolution of genetic information through generations. To solve for these problems, we propose novel quantum mechanical models to accurately describe the process of creation spontaneous, induced, and adaptive mutations and their propagation in time. Different biological channel models with memory, proposed in this paper, include: (i) Markovian classical model, (ii) Markovian-like quantum model, and (iii) hybrid quantum-classical model. We then apply these models in a study of aging and evolution of quantum biological channel capacity through generations. We also discuss key differences of these models with respect to a multilevel symmetric channel-based Markovian model and a Kimura model-based Markovian process. These models are quite general and applicable to many open problems in biology, not only biological channel capacity, which is the main focus of the paper. We will show that the famous quantum Master equation approach, commonly used to describe different biological processes, is just the first-order approximation of the proposed quantum Markov chain-like model, when the observation interval tends to zero. One of the important implications of this model is that the aging phenotype becomes determined by different underlying transition probabilities in both programmed and random (damage) Markov chain-like models of aging, which are mutually

  20. Markov Chain-Like Quantum Biological Modeling of Mutations, Aging, and Evolution.

    PubMed

    Djordjevic, Ivan B

    2015-08-24

    Recent evidence suggests that quantum mechanics is relevant in photosynthesis, magnetoreception, enzymatic catalytic reactions, olfactory reception, photoreception, genetics, electron-transfer in proteins, and evolution; to mention few. In our recent paper published in Life, we have derived the operator-sum representation of a biological channel based on codon basekets, and determined the quantum channel model suitable for study of the quantum biological channel capacity. However, this model is essentially memoryless and it is not able to properly model the propagation of mutation errors in time, the process of aging, and evolution of genetic information through generations. To solve for these problems, we propose novel quantum mechanical models to accurately describe the process of creation spontaneous, induced, and adaptive mutations and their propagation in time. Different biological channel models with memory, proposed in this paper, include: (i) Markovian classical model, (ii) Markovian-like quantum model, and (iii) hybrid quantum-classical model. We then apply these models in a study of aging and evolution of quantum biological channel capacity through generations. We also discuss key differences of these models with respect to a multilevel symmetric channel-based Markovian model and a Kimura model-based Markovian process. These models are quite general and applicable to many open problems in biology, not only biological channel capacity, which is the main focus of the paper. We will show that the famous quantum Master equation approach, commonly used to describe different biological processes, is just the first-order approximation of the proposed quantum Markov chain-like model, when the observation interval tends to zero. One of the important implications of this model is that the aging phenotype becomes determined by different underlying transition probabilities in both programmed and random (damage) Markov chain-like models of aging, which are mutually

  1. Hidden Markov models for evolution and comparative genomics analysis.

    PubMed

    Bykova, Nadezda A; Favorov, Alexander V; Mironov, Andrey A

    2013-01-01

    The problem of reconstruction of ancestral states given a phylogeny and data from extant species arises in a wide range of biological studies. The continuous-time Markov model for the discrete states evolution is generally used for the reconstruction of ancestral states. We modify this model to account for a case when the states of the extant species are uncertain. This situation appears, for example, if the states for extant species are predicted by some program and thus are known only with some level of reliability; it is common for bioinformatics field. The main idea is formulation of the problem as a hidden Markov model on a tree (tree HMM, tHMM), where the basic continuous-time Markov model is expanded with the introduction of emission probabilities of observed data (e.g. prediction scores) for each underlying discrete state. Our tHMM decoding algorithm allows us to predict states at the ancestral nodes as well as to refine states at the leaves on the basis of quantitative comparative genomics. The test on the simulated data shows that the tHMM approach applied to the continuous variable reflecting the probabilities of the states (i.e. prediction score) appears to be more accurate then the reconstruction from the discrete states assignment defined by the best score threshold. We provide examples of applying our model to the evolutionary analysis of N-terminal signal peptides and transcription factor binding sites in bacteria. The program is freely available at http://bioinf.fbb.msu.ru/~nadya/tHMM and via web-service at http://bioinf.fbb.msu.ru/treehmmweb.

  2. A multilevel approach to the relationship between birth order and intelligence.

    PubMed

    Wichman, Aaron L; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; MacCallum, Robert C

    2006-01-01

    Many studies show relationships between birth order and intelligence but use cross-sectional designs or manifest other threats to internal validity. Multilevel analyses with a control variable show that when these threats are removed, two major results emerge: (a) birth order has no significant influence on children's intelligence and (b) earlier reported birth order effects on intelligence are attributable to factors that vary between, not within, families. Analyses on 7- to 8 - and 13- to 14-year-old children from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth support these conclusions. When hierarchical data structures, age variance of children, and within-family versus between-family variance sources are taken into account, previous research is seen in a new light.

  3. A First and Second Order Moment Approach to Probabilistic Control Synthesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a robust control design methodology based on the estimation of the first two order moments of the random variables and processes that describe the controlled response. Synthesis is performed by solving an multi-objective optimization problem where stability and performance requirements in time- and frequency domains are integrated. The use of the first two order moments allows for the efficient estimation of the cost function thus for a faster synthesis algorithm. While reliability requirements are taken into account by using bounds to failure probabilities, requirements related to undesirable variability are implemented by quantifying the concentration of the random outcome about a deterministic target. The Hammersley Sequence Sampling and the First- and Second-Moment- Second-Order approximations are used to estimate the moments, whose accuracy and associated computational complexity are compared numerically. Examples using output-feedback and full-state feedback with state estimation are used to demonstrate the ideas proposed.

  4. Robust controller designs for second-order dynamic system: A virtual passive approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Juang, Jer-Nan; Phan, Minh

    1990-01-01

    A robust controller design is presented for second-order dynamic systems. The controller is model-independent and itself is a virtual second-order dynamic system. Conditions on actuator and sensor placements are identified for controller designs that guarantee overall closed-loop stability. The dynamic controller can be viewed as a virtual passive damping system that serves to stabilize the actual dynamic system. The control gains are interpreted as virtual mass, spring, and dashpot elements that play the same roles as actual physical elements in stability analysis. Position, velocity, and acceleration feedback are considered. Simple examples are provided to illustrate the physical meaning of this controller design.

  5. Quasinormal behavior of the D-dimensional Schwarzschild black hole and the higher order WKB approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konoplya, R. A.

    2003-07-01

    We study characteristic (quasinormal) modes of a D-dimensional Schwarzschild black hole. It is shown that the real parts of the complex quasinormal modes, representing the real oscillation frequencies, are proportional to the product of the number of dimensions and inverse horizon radius ˜Dr-10. The asymptotic formula for large multipole number l and arbitrary D is derived. In addition, the WKB formula for computing QN modes, developed to the third order beyond the eikonal approximation, is extended to the sixth order here. This gives us an accurate and economic way to compute quasinormal frequencies.

  6. Robust controller designs for second-order dynamic systems - A virtual passive approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Juang, Jer-Nan; Phan, Minh

    1991-01-01

    A robust controller design is presented for second-order dynamic systems. The controller is model-independent and itself is a virtual second-order dynamic system. Conditions on actuator and sensor placements are identified for controller designs that guarantee overall closed-loop stability. The dynamic controller can be viewed as a virtual passive damping system that serves to stabilize the actual dynamic system. The control gians are interpreted as virtual mass, spring, and dashpot elements that play the same roles as actual physical elements in stability analysis. Position, velocity, and acceleration feedback are considered. Simple examples are provided to illustrate the physical meaning of this controller design.

  7. SURE - SEMI-MARKOV UNRELIABILITY RANGE EVALUATOR (VAX VMS VERSION)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butler, R. W.

    1994-01-01

    The Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator, SURE, is an analysis tool for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems. Traditional reliability analyses are based on aggregates of fault-handling and fault-occurrence models. SURE provides an efficient means for calculating accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities for a large class of semi-Markov models, not just those which can be reduced to critical-pair architectures. The calculated bounds are close enough (usually within 5 percent of each other) for use in reliability studies of ultra-reliable computer systems. The SURE bounding theorems have algebraic solutions and are consequently computationally efficient even for large and complex systems. SURE can optionally regard a specified parameter as a variable over a range of values, enabling an automatic sensitivity analysis. Highly reliable systems employ redundancy and reconfiguration as methods of ensuring operation. When such systems are modeled stochastically, some state transitions are orders of magnitude faster than others; that is, fault recovery is usually faster than fault arrival. SURE takes these time differences into account. Slow transitions are described by exponential functions and fast transitions are modeled by either the White or Lee theorems based on means, variances, and percentiles. The user must assign identifiers to every state in the system and define all transitions in the semi-Markov model. SURE input statements are composed of variables and constants related by FORTRAN-like operators such as =, +, *, SIN, EXP, etc. There are a dozen major commands such as READ, READO, SAVE, SHOW, PRUNE, TRUNCate, CALCulator, and RUN. Once the state transitions have been defined, SURE calculates the upper and lower probability bounds for entering specified death states within a specified mission time. SURE output is tabular. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem

  8. An Integrated Bayesian Nonparametric Approach for Stochastic and Variability Orders in ROC Curve Estimation: An Application to Endometriosis Diagnosis

    PubMed Central

    Hwang, Beom Seuk; Chen, Zhen

    2015-01-01

    In estimating ROC curves of multiple tests, some a priori constraints may exist, either between the healthy and diseased populations within a test or between tests within a population. In this paper, we proposed an integrated modeling approach for ROC curves that jointly accounts for stochastic and variability orders. The stochastic order constrains the distributional centers of the diseased and healthy populations within a test, while the variability order constrains the distributional spreads of the tests within each of the populations. Under a Bayesian nonparametric framework, we used features of the Dirichlet process mixture to incorporate these order constraints in a natural way. We applied the proposed approach to data from the Physician Reliability Study that investigated the accuracy of diagnosing endometriosis using different clinical information. To address the issue of no gold standard in the real data, we used a sensitivity analysis approach that exploited diagnosis from a panel of experts. To demonstrate the performance of the methodology, we conducted simulation studies with varying sample sizes, distributional assumptions and order constraints. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. PMID:26839441

  9. Mott Transitions and Staggered Orders in the Three-Component Fermionic System: Variational Cluster Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasunuma, Takumi; Kaneko, Tatsuya; Miyakoshi, Shohei; Ohta, Yukinori

    2016-07-01

    The variational cluster approximation is used to study the ground-state properties and single-particle spectra of the three-component fermionic Hubbard model defined on the two-dimensional square lattice at half filling. First, we show that either a paired Mott state or color-selective Mott state is realized in the paramagnetic system, depending on the anisotropy in the interaction strengths, except around the SU(3) symmetric point, where a paramagnetic metallic state is maintained. Then, by introducing Weiss fields to observe spontaneous symmetry breakings, we show that either a color-density-wave state or color-selective antiferromagnetic state is realized depending on the interaction anisotropy and that the first-order phase transition between these two states occurs at the SU(3) point. We moreover show that these staggered orders originate from the gain in potential energy (or Slater mechanism) near the SU(3) point but originate from the gain in kinetic energy (or Mott mechanism) when the interaction anisotropy is strong. The staggered orders near the SU(3) point disappear when the next-nearest-neighbor hopping parameters are introduced, indicating that these orders are fragile, protected only by the Fermi surface nesting.

  10. Verbal Working Memory and Language Production: Common Approaches to the Serial Ordering of Verbal Information

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Acheson, Daniel J.; MacDonald, Maryellen C.

    2009-01-01

    Verbal working memory (WM) tasks typically involve the language production architecture for recall; however, language production processes have had a minimal role in theorizing about WM. A framework for understanding verbal WM results is presented here. In this framework, domain-specific mechanisms for serial ordering in verbal WM are provided by…

  11. HFVS: An arbitrary high order approach based on flux vector splitting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Yibing; Jiang, Song; Liu, Na

    2016-10-01

    In this paper, a new scheme of arbitrary high order accuracy in both space and time is proposed to solve hyperbolic conservative laws. The basic idea in the construction is that, based on the idea of the flux vector splitting (FVS), we split all the spatial and time derivatives in the Taylor expansion of the numerical flux into two parts: one part with positive eigenvalues, another with negative eigenvalues. According to a Lax-Wendroff procedure, all the time derivatives are then replaced by spatial derivatives, which are evaluated by using WENO reconstruction polynomials. One of the most significant advantages of the current scheme is very easy to implement. In addition, it is found that the higher spatial and time derivatives produced in the construction of the numerical flux can be regarded as a building block, in the sense that they can be coupled with any extact/approximate Riemann solvers to extend a first-order scheme to very high order accuracy in both space and time. Numerous numerical tests for linear and nonlinear hyperbolic conservative laws are carried out, and the numerical results demonstrate that the proposed scheme is robust and can be of high order accuracy in both space and time.

  12. Does Higher-Order Thinking Impinge on Learner-Centric Digital Approach?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mathew, Bincy; Raja, B. William Dharma

    2015-01-01

    Humans are social beings and the social cognition focuses on how one form impressions of other people, interpret the meaning of other people's behaviour and how people's behaviour is affected by our attitudes. The school provides complex social situations and in order to thrive, students must possess social cognition, the process of thinking about…

  13. A Model-Based Approach for Visualizing the Dimensional Structure of Ordered Successive Categories Preference Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeSarbo, Wayne S.; Park, Joonwook; Scott, Crystal J.

    2008-01-01

    A cyclical conditional maximum likelihood estimation procedure is developed for the multidimensional unfolding of two- or three-way dominance data (e.g., preference, choice, consideration) measured on ordered successive category rating scales. The technical description of the proposed model and estimation procedure are discussed, as well as the…

  14. An Automated Approach to Very High Order Aeroacoustic Computations in Complex Geometries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dyson, Rodger W.; Goodrich, John W.

    2000-01-01

    Computational aeroacoustics requires efficient, high-resolution simulation tools. And for smooth problems, this is best accomplished with very high order in space and time methods on small stencils. But the complexity of highly accurate numerical methods can inhibit their practical application, especially in irregular geometries. This complexity is reduced by using a special form of Hermite divided-difference spatial interpolation on Cartesian grids, and a Cauchy-Kowalewslci recursion procedure for time advancement. In addition, a stencil constraint tree reduces the complexity of interpolating grid points that are located near wall boundaries. These procedures are used to automatically develop and implement very high order methods (>15) for solving the linearized Euler equations that can achieve less than one grid point per wavelength resolution away from boundaries by including spatial derivatives of the primitive variables at each grid point. The accuracy of stable surface treatments is currently limited to 11th order for grid aligned boundaries and to 2nd order for irregular boundaries.

  15. The algebra of the general Markov model on phylogenetic trees and networks.

    PubMed

    Sumner, J G; Holland, B R; Jarvis, P D

    2012-04-01

    It is known that the Kimura 3ST model of sequence evolution on phylogenetic trees can be extended quite naturally to arbitrary split systems. However, this extension relies heavily on mathematical peculiarities of the associated Hadamard transformation, and providing an analogous augmentation of the general Markov model has thus far been elusive. In this paper, we rectify this shortcoming by showing how to extend the general Markov model on trees to include incompatible edges; and even further to more general network models. This is achieved by exploring the algebra of the generators of the continuous-time Markov chain together with the “splitting” operator that generates the branching process on phylogenetic trees. For simplicity, we proceed by discussing the two state case and then show that our results are easily extended to more states with little complication. Intriguingly, upon restriction of the two state general Markov model to the parameter space of the binary symmetric model, our extension is indistinguishable from the Hadamard approach only on trees; as soon as any incompatible splits are introduced the two approaches give rise to differing probability distributions with disparate structure. Through exploration of a simple example, we give an argument that our extension to more general networks has desirable properties that the previous approaches do not share. In particular, our construction allows for convergent evolution of previously divergent lineages; a property that is of significant interest for biological applications.

  16. Birth order effects on the separation process in young adults: an evolutionary and dynamic approach.

    PubMed

    Ziv, Ido; Hermel, Orly

    2011-01-01

    The present study analyzes the differential contribution of a familial or social focus in imaginative ideation (the personal fable and imagined audience mental constructs) to the separation-individuation process of firstborn, middleborn, and lastborn children. A total of 160 young adults were divided into 3 groups by birth order. Participants' separation-individuation process was evaluated by the Psychological Separation Inventory, and results were cross-validated by the Pathology of Separation-Individuation Inventory. The Imaginative Ideation Inventory tested the relative dominance of the familial and social environments in participants' mental constructs. The findings showed that middleborn children had attained more advanced separation and were lower in family-focused ideation and higher in nonfamilial social ideation. However, the familial and not the social ideation explained the variance in the separation process in all the groups. The findings offer new insights into the effects of birth order on separation and individuation in adolescents and young adults.

  17. Universal order parameters and quantum phase transitions: a finite-size approach.

    PubMed

    Shi, Qian-Qian; Zhou, Huan-Qiang; Batchelor, Murray T

    2015-01-01

    We propose a method to construct universal order parameters for quantum phase transitions in many-body lattice systems. The method exploits the H-orthogonality of a few near-degenerate lowest states of the Hamiltonian describing a given finite-size system, which makes it possible to perform finite-size scaling and take full advantage of currently available numerical algorithms. An explicit connection is established between the fidelity per site between two H-orthogonal states and the energy gap between the ground state and low-lying excited states in the finite-size system. The physical information encoded in this gap arising from finite-size fluctuations clarifies the origin of the universal order parameter. We demonstrate the procedure for the one-dimensional quantum formulation of the q-state Potts model, for q = 2, 3, 4 and 5, as prototypical examples, using finite-size data obtained from the density matrix renormalization group algorithm. PMID:25567585

  18. Universal Order Parameters and Quantum Phase Transitions: A Finite-Size Approach

    PubMed Central

    Shi, Qian-Qian; Zhou, Huan-Qiang; Batchelor, Murray T.

    2015-01-01

    We propose a method to construct universal order parameters for quantum phase transitions in many-body lattice systems. The method exploits the H-orthogonality of a few near-degenerate lowest states of the Hamiltonian describing a given finite-size system, which makes it possible to perform finite-size scaling and take full advantage of currently available numerical algorithms. An explicit connection is established between the fidelity per site between two H-orthogonal states and the energy gap between the ground state and low-lying excited states in the finite-size system. The physical information encoded in this gap arising from finite-size fluctuations clarifies the origin of the universal order parameter. We demonstrate the procedure for the one-dimensional quantum formulation of the q-state Potts model, for q = 2, 3, 4 and 5, as prototypical examples, using finite-size data obtained from the density matrix renormalization group algorithm. PMID:25567585

  19. An overset mesh approach for 3D mixed element high-order discretizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brazell, Michael J.; Sitaraman, Jayanarayanan; Mavriplis, Dimitri J.

    2016-10-01

    A parallel high-order Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method is used to solve the compressible Navier-Stokes equations in an overset mesh framework. The DG solver has many capabilities including: hp-adaption, curved cells, support for hybrid, mixed-element meshes, and moving meshes. Combining these capabilities with overset grids allows the DG solver to be used in problems with bodies in relative motion and in a near-body off-body solver strategy. The overset implementation is constructed to preserve the design accuracy of the baseline DG discretization. Multiple simulations are carried out to validate the accuracy and performance of the overset DG solver. These simulations demonstrate the capability of the high-order DG solver to handle complex geometry and large scale parallel simulations in an overset framework.

  20. An approach for generation of second order RC-active filters.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunn, W. R., Jr.

    1972-01-01

    It is shown that node (or loop) matrix equations can be written which yield second order low-pass, band-pass, and high-pass network functions. Networks corresponding to the equations can in turn be formulated by inspection of the equations. The networks employ ideal VCT or CVT sources which can be physically realized using transistors and/or operational amplifiers. The technique yields several structures which are believed to be new.

  1. Multi-omics approach for estimating metabolic networks using low-order partial correlations.

    PubMed

    Kayano, Mitsunori; Imoto, Seiya; Yamaguchi, Rui; Miyano, Satoru

    2013-08-01

    Two typical purposes of metabolome analysis are to estimate metabolic pathways and to understand the regulatory systems underlying the metabolism. A powerful source of information for these analyses is a set of multi-omics data for RNA, proteins, and metabolites. However, integrated methods that analyze multi-omics data simultaneously and unravel the systems behind metabolisms have not been well established. We developed a statistical method based on low-order partial correlations with a robust correlation coefficient for estimating metabolic networks from metabolome, proteome, and transcriptome data. Our method is defined by the maximum of low-order, particularly first-order, partial correlations (MF-PCor) in order to assign a correct edge with the highest correlation and to detect the factors that strongly affect the correlation coefficient. First, through numerical experiments with real and synthetic data, we showed that the use of protein and transcript data of enzymes improved the accuracy of the estimated metabolic networks in MF-PCor. In these experiments, the effectiveness of the proposed method was also demonstrated by comparison with a correlation network (Cor) and a Gaussian graphical model (GGM). Our theoretical investigation confirmed that the performance of MF-PCor could be superior to that of the competing methods. In addition, in the real data analysis, we investigated the role of metabolites, enzymes, and enzyme genes that were identified as important factors in the network established by MF-PCor. We then found that some of them corresponded to specific reactions between metabolites mediated by catalytic enzymes that were difficult to be identified by analysis based on metabolite data alone.

  2. Nexus Between Protein–Ligand Affinity Rank-Ordering, Biophysical Approaches, and Drug Discovery

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    The confluence of computational and biophysical methods to accurately rank-order the binding affinities of small molecules and determine structures of macromolecular complexes is a potentially transformative advance in the work flow of drug discovery. This viewpoint explores the impact that advanced computational methods may have on the efficacy of small molecule drug discovery and optimization, particularly with respect to emerging fragment-based methods. PMID:24900579

  3. Make-to-order manufacturing - new approach to management of manufacturing processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saniuk, A.; Waszkowski, R.

    2016-08-01

    Strategic management must now be closely linked to the management at the operational level, because only in such a situation the company can be flexible and can quickly respond to emerging opportunities and pursue ever-changing strategic objectives. In these conditions industrial enterprises seek constantly new methods, tools and solutions which help to achieve competitive advantage. They are beginning to pay more attention to cost management, economic effectiveness and performance of business processes. In the article characteristics of make-to-order systems (MTO) and needs associated with managing such systems is identified based on the literature analysis. The main aim of this article is to present the results of research related to the development of a new solution dedicated to small and medium enterprises manufacture products solely on the basis of production orders (make-to- order systems). A set of indicators to enable continuous monitoring and control of key strategic areas this type of company is proposed. A presented solution includes the main assumptions of the following concepts: the Performance Management (PM), the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) and a combination of strategic management with the implementation of operational management. The main benefits of proposed solution are to increase effectiveness of MTO manufacturing company management.

  4. Nuclear magnetic resonance proton dipolar order relaxation in thermotropic liquid crystals: A quantum theoretical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zamar, R. C.; Mensio, O.

    2004-12-01

    By means of the Jeener-Broekaert nuclear magnetic resonance pulse sequence, the proton spin system of a liquid crystal can be prepared in quasiequilibrium states of high dipolar order, which relax to thermal equilibrium with the molecular environment with a characteristic time (T1D). Previous studies of the Larmor frequency and temperature dependence of T1D in thermotropic liquid crystals, that included field cycling and conventional high-field experiments, showed that the slow hydrodynamic modes dominate the behavior of T1D, even at high Larmor frequencies. This noticeable predominance of the cooperative fluctuations (known as order fluctuations of the director, OFD) could not be explained by standard models based on the spin-lattice relaxation theory in the limit of high temperature (weak order). This fact points out the necessity of investigating the role of the quantum terms neglected in the usual high temperature theory of dipolar order relaxation. In this work, we present a generalization of the proton dipolar order relaxation theory for highly correlated systems, which considers all the spins belonging to correlated domains as an open quantum system interacting with quantum bath. As starting point, we deduce a formulation of the Markovian master equation of relaxation for the statistical spin operator, valid for all temperatures, which is suitable for introducing a dipolar spin temperature in the quantum regime, without further assumptions about the form of the spin-lattice Hamiltonian. In order to reflect the slow dynamics occurring in correlated systems, we lift the usual short-correlation-time assumption by including the average over the motion of the dipolar Hamiltonian together with the Zeeman Hamiltonian into the time evolution operator. In this way, we calculate the time dependence of the spin operators in the interaction picture in a closed form, valid for high magnetic fields, bringing into play the spin-spin interactions within the microscopic time

  5. Finite element modelling approaches for well-ordered porous metallic materials for orthopaedic applications: cost effectiveness and geometrical considerations.

    PubMed

    Quevedo González, Fernando José; Nuño, Natalia

    2016-01-01

    The mechanical properties of well-ordered porous materials are related to their geometrical parameters at the mesoscale. Finite element (FE) analysis is a powerful tool to design well-ordered porous materials by analysing the mechanical behaviour. However, FE models are often computationally expensive. This article aims to develop a cost-effective FE model to simulate well-ordered porous metallic materials for orthopaedic applications. Solid and beam FE modelling approaches are compared, using finite size and infinite media models considering cubic unit cell geometry. The model is then applied to compare two unit cell geometries: cubic and diamond. Models having finite size provide similar results than the infinite media model approach for large sample sizes. In addition, these finite size models also capture the influence of the boundary conditions on the mechanical response for small sample sizes. The beam FE modelling approach showed little computational cost and similar results to the solid FE modelling approach. Diamond unit cell geometry appeared to be more suitable for orthopaedic applications than the cubic unit cell geometry.

  6. Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo in imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Higdon, David M.; Bowsher, James E.

    1999-05-01

    Over the past 20 years, many problems in Bayesian inference that were previously intractable can now be fairly routinely dealt with using a computationally intensive technique for exploring the posterior distribution called Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Primarily because of insufficient computing capabilities, most MCMC applications have been limited to rather standard statistical models. However, with the computing power of modern workstations, a fully Bayesian approach with MCMC, is now possible for many imaging applications. Such an approach can be quite useful because it leads not only to `point' estimates of an underlying image or emission source, but it also gives a means for quantifying uncertainties regarding the image. This paper gives an overview of Bayesian image analysis and focuses on applications relevant to medical imaging. Particular focus is on prior image models and outlining MCMC methods for these models.

  7. Self-Organizing Hidden Markov Model Map (SOHMMM).

    PubMed

    Ferles, Christos; Stafylopatis, Andreas

    2013-12-01

    A hybrid approach combining the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) and the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is presented. The Self-Organizing Hidden Markov Model Map (SOHMMM) establishes a cross-section between the theoretic foundations and algorithmic realizations of its constituents. The respective architectures and learning methodologies are fused in an attempt to meet the increasing requirements imposed by the properties of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), ribonucleic acid (RNA), and protein chain molecules. The fusion and synergy of the SOM unsupervised training and the HMM dynamic programming algorithms bring forth a novel on-line gradient descent unsupervised learning algorithm, which is fully integrated into the SOHMMM. Since the SOHMMM carries out probabilistic sequence analysis with little or no prior knowledge, it can have a variety of applications in clustering, dimensionality reduction and visualization of large-scale sequence spaces, and also, in sequence discrimination, search and classification. Two series of experiments based on artificial sequence data and splice junction gene sequences demonstrate the SOHMMM's characteristics and capabilities. PMID:24001407

  8. Learning atomic human actions using variable-length Markov models.

    PubMed

    Liang, Yu-Ming; Shih, Sheng-Wen; Shih, Arthur Chun-Chieh; Liao, Hong-Yuan Mark; Lin, Cheng-Chung

    2009-02-01

    Visual analysis of human behavior has generated considerable interest in the field of computer vision because of its wide spectrum of potential applications. Human behavior can be segmented into atomic actions, each of which indicates a basic and complete movement. Learning and recognizing atomic human actions are essential to human behavior analysis. In this paper, we propose a framework for handling this task using variable-length Markov models (VLMMs). The framework is comprised of the following two modules: a posture labeling module and a VLMM atomic action learning and recognition module. First, a posture template selection algorithm, based on a modified shape context matching technique, is developed. The selected posture templates form a codebook that is used to convert input posture sequences into discrete symbol sequences for subsequent processing. Then, the VLMM technique is applied to learn the training symbol sequences of atomic actions. Finally, the constructed VLMMs are transformed into hidden Markov models (HMMs) for recognizing input atomic actions. This approach combines the advantages of the excellent learning function of a VLMM and the fault-tolerant recognition ability of an HMM. Experiments on realistic data demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed system.

  9. Markov models of molecular kinetics: generation and validation.

    PubMed

    Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Wu, Hao; Sarich, Marco; Keller, Bettina; Senne, Martin; Held, Martin; Chodera, John D; Schütte, Christof; Noé, Frank

    2011-05-01

    Markov state models of molecular kinetics (MSMs), in which the long-time statistical dynamics of a molecule is approximated by a Markov chain on a discrete partition of configuration space, have seen widespread use in recent years. This approach has many appealing characteristics compared to straightforward molecular dynamics simulation and analysis, including the potential to mitigate the sampling problem by extracting long-time kinetic information from short trajectories and the ability to straightforwardly calculate expectation values and statistical uncertainties of various stationary and dynamical molecular observables. In this paper, we summarize the current state of the art in generation and validation of MSMs and give some important new results. We describe an upper bound for the approximation error made by modeling molecular dynamics with a MSM and we show that this error can be made arbitrarily small with surprisingly little effort. In contrast to previous practice, it becomes clear that the best MSM is not obtained by the most metastable discretization, but the MSM can be much improved if non-metastable states are introduced near the transition states. Moreover, we show that it is not necessary to resolve all slow processes by the state space partitioning, but individual dynamical processes of interest can be resolved separately. We also present an efficient estimator for reversible transition matrices and a robust test to validate that a MSM reproduces the kinetics of the molecular dynamics data.

  10. Clustered Numerical Data Analysis Using Markov Lie Monoid Based Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Joseph

    2016-03-01

    We have designed and build an optimal numerical standardization algorithm that links numerical values with their associated units, error level, and defining metadata thus supporting automated data exchange and new levels of artificial intelligence (AI). The software manages all dimensional and error analysis and computational tracing. Tables of entities verses properties of these generalized numbers (called ``metanumbers'') support a transformation of each table into a network among the entities and another network among their properties where the network connection matrix is based upon a proximity metric between the two items. We previously proved that every network is isomorphic to the Lie algebra that generates continuous Markov transformations. We have also shown that the eigenvectors of these Markov matrices provide an agnostic clustering of the underlying patterns. We will present this methodology and show how our new work on conversion of scientific numerical data through this process can reveal underlying information clusters ordered by the eigenvalues. We will also show how the linking of clusters from different tables can be used to form a ``supernet'' of all numerical information supporting new initiatives in AI.

  11. A Physicochemical Approach Toward Extending Conjugation and the Ordering of Solution-Processable Semiconducting Polymers.

    PubMed

    Lee, Minjung; Jeon, Hyeonyeol; Jang, Mi; Yang, Hoichang

    2016-02-01

    Poly(3-hexylthiophene)s (P3HTs) were synthesized with a well-controlled molecular weight (Mw) and degree of regioregularity; additionally, π-conjugated P3HT structures in both solutions and films were systematically investigated. Conjugated P3HT phases in spin-cast films significantly changed from ordered nanorods, -fibrils, and -ribbons to less-ordered granules, depending on the conformation of the P3HT chains in solutions. The chain conformations could be physicochemically adjusted by modifying chain lengths (from 5 to 45 kDa), solvents, and ultrasonication. Highly extended conformations of the P3HT in ultrasound-treated solutions yielded longer degree of conjugation both the intra- and intermolecularly. When toluene was used as a marginal solvent, ultrasonicated 0.1 wt % 29 kDa P3HT solutions could be used to yield highly ordered aggregates in spin-cast films, including nanoribbons or nanosheets, with field-effect mobility (μFET) up to ∼0.1 cm(2) V(-1) s(-1) being measured for organic field-effect transistors (OFETs). However, ultrasonicated chloroform systems with good P3HT solubility (for P3HT Mw ≥ 20 kDa) yielded featureless conducting layers even at 0.4 wt % P3HT content. However, these film-based OFETs yielded μFET values up to 0.04 cm(2) V(-1) s(-1), which were much greater than 0.004 cm(2) V(-1) s(-1) for the nonultrasonicated systems. PMID:26838119

  12. General approach for studying first-order phase transitions at low temperatures.

    PubMed

    Fiore, C E; da Luz, M G E

    2011-12-01

    By combining different ideas, a general and efficient protocol to deal with discontinuous phase transitions at low temperatures is proposed. For small T's, it is possible to derive a generic analytic expression for appropriate order parameters, whose coefficients are obtained from simple simulations. Once in such regimes simulations by standard algorithms are not reliable; an enhanced tempering method, the parallel tempering-accurate for small and intermediate system sizes with rather low computational cost-is used. Finally, from finite size analysis, one can obtain the thermodynamic limit. The procedure is illustrated for four distinct models, demonstrating its power, e.g., to locate coexistence lines and the phase density at the coexistence.

  13. A Kramers-Moyal Approach to the Analysis of Third-Order Noise with Applications in Option Valuation

    PubMed Central

    Popescu, Dan M.; Lipan, Ovidiu

    2015-01-01

    We propose the use of the Kramers-Moyal expansion in the analysis of third-order noise. In particular, we show how the approach can be applied in the theoretical study of option valuation. Despite Pawula’s theorem, which states that a truncated model may exhibit poor statistical properties, we show that for a third-order Kramers-Moyal truncation model of an option’s and its underlier’s price, important properties emerge: (i) the option price can be written in a closed analytical form that involves the Airy function, (ii) the price is a positive function for positive skewness in the distribution, (iii) for negative skewness, the price becomes negative only for price values that are close to zero. Moreover, using third-order noise in option valuation reveals additional properties: (iv) the inconsistencies between two popular option pricing approaches (using a “delta-hedged” portfolio and using an option replicating portfolio) that are otherwise equivalent up to the second moment, (v) the ability to develop a measure R of how accurately an option can be replicated by a mixture of the underlying stocks and cash, (vi) further limitations of second-order models revealed by introducing third-order noise. PMID:25625856

  14. Modeling the atmospheric convective boundary layer within a zero-order jump approach: An extended theoretical framework

    SciTech Connect

    Fedorovich, E.

    1995-09-01

    The paper presents an extended theoretical background for applied modeling of the atmospheric convective boundary layer within the so-called zero-order jump approach, which implies vertical homogeneity of meteorological fields in the bulk of convective boundary layer (CBL) and zero-order discontinuities of variables at the interfaces of the layer. The zero-order jump model equations for the most typical cases of CBL are derived. The models of nonsteady, horizontally homogeneous CBL with and without shear, extensively studied in the past with the aid of zero-order jump models, are shown to be particular cases of the general zero-order jump theoretical framework. The integral budgets of momentum and heat are considered for different types of dry CBL. The profiles of vertical turbulent fluxes are presented and analyzed. The general version of the equation of CBL depth growth rate (entrainment rate equation) is obtained by the integration of the turbulence kinetic energy balance equation, invoking basic assumptions of the zero-order parameterizations of the CBL vertical structure. The problems of parameterizing the turbulence vertical structure and closure of the entrainment rate equation for specific cases of CBL are discussed. A parameterization scheme for the horizontal turbulent exchange in zero-order jump models of CBL is proposed. The developed theory is generalized for the case of CBL over irregular terrain. 28 refs., 2 figs.

  15. Effects of higher order control systems on aircraft approach and landing longitudinal handling qualities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pasha, M. A.; Dazzo, J. J.; Silverthorn, J. T.

    1982-01-01

    An investigation of approach and landing longitudinal flying qualities, based on data generated using a variable stability NT-33 aircraft combined with significant control system dynamics is described. An optimum pilot lead time for pitch tracking, flight path angle tracking, and combined pitch and flight path angle tracking tasks is determined from a closed loop simulation using integral squared error (ISE) as a performance measure. Pilot gain and lead time were varied in the closed loop simulation of the pilot and aircraft to obtain the best performance for different control system configurations. The results lead to the selection of an optimum lead time using ISE as a performance criterion. Using this value of optimum lead time, a correlation is then found between pilot rating and performance with changes in the control system and in the aircraft dynamics. It is also shown that pilot rating is closely related to pilot workload which, in turn, is related to the amount of lead which the pilot must generate to obtain satisfactory response. The results also indicate that the pilot may use pitch angle tracking for the approach task and then add flight path angle tracking for the flare and touchdown.

  16. Constraint-preserving boundary conditions in the 3+1 first-order approach

    SciTech Connect

    Bona, C.; Bona-Casas, C.

    2010-09-15

    A set of energy-momentum constraint-preserving boundary conditions is proposed for the first-order Z4 case. The stability of a simple numerical implementation is tested in the linear regime (robust stability test), both with the standard corner and vertex treatment and with a modified finite-differences stencil for boundary points which avoids corners and vertices even in Cartesian-like grids. Moreover, the proposed boundary conditions are tested in a strong-field scenario, the Gowdy waves metric, showing the expected rate of convergence. The accumulated amount of energy-momentum constraint violations is similar or even smaller than the one generated by either periodic or reflection conditions, which are exact in the Gowdy waves case. As a side theoretical result, a new symmetrizer is explicitly given, which extends the parametric domain of symmetric hyperbolicity for the Z4 formalism. The application of these results to first-order Baumgarte-Shapiro-Shibata-Nakamura-like formalisms is also considered.

  17. A first-order time-domain Green's function approach to supersonic unsteady flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Freedman, M. I.; Tseng, K.

    1985-01-01

    A time-domain Green's Function Method for unsteady supersonic potential flow around complex aircraft configurations is presented. The focus is on the supersonic range wherein the linear potential flow assumption is valid. The Green's function method is employed in order to convert the potential-flow differential equation into an integral one. This integral equation is then discretized, in space through standard finite-element technique, and in time through finite-difference, to yield a linear algebraic system of equations relating the unknown potential to its prescribed co-normalwash (boundary condition) on the surface of the aircraft. The arbitrary complex aircraft configuration is discretized into hyperboloidal (twisted quadrilateral) panels. The potential and co-normalwash are assumed to vary linearly within each panel. Consistent with the spatial linear (first-order) finite-element approximations, the potential and co-normalwash are assumed to vary linearly in time. The long range goal of our research is to develop a comprehensive theory for unsteady supersonic potential aerodynamics which is capable of yielding accurate results even in the low supersonic (i.e., high transonic) range.

  18. Combinatorial approach to generalized Bell and Stirling numbers and boson normal ordering problem

    SciTech Connect

    Mendez, M.A.; Blasiak, P.; Penson, K.A.

    2005-08-01

    We consider the numbers arising in the problem of normal ordering of expressions in boson creation a{sup {dagger}} and annihilation a operators ([a,a{sup {dagger}}]=1). We treat a general form of a boson string (a{sup {dagger}}){sup r{sub n}}a{sup s{sub n}}...(a{sup {dagger}}){sup r{sub 2}}a{sup s{sub 2}}(a{sup {dagger}}){sup r{sub 1}}a{sup s{sub 1}} which is shown to be associated with generalizations of Stirling and Bell numbers. The recurrence relations and closed-form expressions (Dobinski-type formulas) are obtained for these quantities by both algebraic and combinatorial methods. By extensive use of methods of combinatorial analysis we prove the equivalence of the aforementioned problem to the enumeration of special families of graphs. This link provides a combinatorial interpretation of the numbers arising in this normal ordering problem.

  19. Quantification of heart rate variability by discrete nonstationary non-Markov stochastic processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yulmetyev, Renat; Hänggi, Peter; Gafarov, Fail

    2002-04-01

    We develop the statistical theory of discrete nonstationary non-Markov random processes in complex systems. The objective of this paper is to find the chain of finite-difference non-Markov kinetic equations for time correlation functions (TCF) in terms of nonstationary effects. The developed theory starts from careful analysis of time correlation through nonstationary dynamics of vectors of initial and final states and nonstationary normalized TCF. Using the projection operators technique we find the chain of finite-difference non-Markov kinetic equations for discrete nonstationary TCF and for the set of nonstationary discrete memory functions (MF's). The last one contains supplementary information about nonstationary properties of the complex system on the whole. Another relevant result of our theory is the construction of the set of dynamic parameters of nonstationarity, which contains some information of the nonstationarity effects. The full set of dynamic, spectral and kinetic parameters, and kinetic functions (TCF, short MF's statistical spectra of non-Markovity parameter, and statistical spectra of nonstationarity parameter) has made it possible to acquire the in-depth information about discreteness, non-Markov effects, long-range memory, and nonstationarity of the underlying processes. The developed theory is applied to analyze the long-time (Holter) series of RR intervals of human ECG's. We had two groups of patients: the healthy ones and the patients after myocardial infarction. In both groups we observed effects of fractality, standard and restricted self-organized criticality, and also a certain specific arrangement of spectral lines. The received results demonstrate that the power spectra of all orders (n=1,2,...) MF mn(t) exhibit the neatly expressed fractal features. We have found out that the full sets of non-Markov, discrete and nonstationary parameters can serve as reliable and powerful means of diagnosis of the cardiovascular system states and can

  20. A critical appraisal of Markov state models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schütte, Ch.; Sarich, M.

    2015-09-01

    Markov State Modelling as a concept for a coarse grained description of the essential kinetics of a molecular system in equilibrium has gained a lot of attention recently. The last 10 years have seen an ever increasing publication activity on how to construct Markov State Models (MSMs) for very different molecular systems ranging from peptides to proteins, from RNA to DNA, and via molecular sensors to molecular aggregation. Simultaneously the accompanying theory behind MSM building and approximation quality has been developed well beyond the concepts and ideas used in practical applications. This article reviews the main theoretical results, provides links to crucial new developments, outlines the full power of MSM building today, and discusses the essential limitations still to overcome.

  1. Equivalent Markov processes under gauge group.

    PubMed

    Caruso, M; Jarne, C

    2015-11-01

    We have studied Markov processes on denumerable state space and continuous time. We found that all these processes are connected via gauge transformations. We have used this result before as a method to resolve equations, included the case in a previous work in which the sample space is time-dependent [Phys. Rev. E 90, 022125 (2014)]. We found a general solution through dilation of the state space, although the prior probability distribution of the states defined in this new space takes smaller values with respect to that in the initial problem. The gauge (local) group of dilations modifies the distribution on the dilated space to restore the original process. In this work, we show how the Markov process in general could be linked via gauge (local) transformations, and we present some illustrative examples for this result.

  2. Verification of secure distributed systems in higher order logic: A modular approach using generic components

    SciTech Connect

    Alves-Foss, J.; Levitt, K.

    1991-01-01

    In this paper we present a generalization of McCullough's restrictiveness model as the basis for proving security properties about distributed system designs. We mechanize this generalization and an event-based model of computer systems in the HOL (Higher Order Logic) system to prove the composability of the model and several other properties about the model. We then develop a set of generalized classes of system components and show for which families of user views they satisfied the model. Using these classes we develop a collection of general system components that are instantiations of one of these classes and show that the instantiations also satisfied the security property. We then conclude with a sample distributed secure system, based on the Rushby and Randell distributed system design and designed using our collection of components, and show how our mechanized verification system can be used to verify such designs. 16 refs., 20 figs.

  3. A Bioinformatics Approach to the Structure, Function, and Evolution of the Nucleoprotein of the Order Mononegavirales

    PubMed Central

    Cleveland, Sean B.; Davies, John; McClure, Marcella A.

    2011-01-01

    The goal of this Bioinformatic study is to investigate sequence conservation in relation to evolutionary function/structure of the nucleoprotein of the order Mononegavirales. In the combined analysis of 63 representative nucleoprotein (N) sequences from four viral families (Bornaviridae, Filoviridae, Rhabdoviridae, and Paramyxoviridae) we predict the regions of protein disorder, intra-residue contact and co-evolving residues. Correlations between location and conservation of predicted regions illustrate a strong division between families while high- lighting conservation within individual families. These results suggest the conserved regions among the nucleoproteins, specifically within Rhabdoviridae and Paramyxoviradae, but also generally among all members of the order, reflect an evolutionary advantage in maintaining these sites for the viral nucleoprotein as part of the transcription/replication machinery. Results indicate conservation for disorder in the C-terminus region of the representative proteins that is important for interacting with the phosphoprotein and the large subunit polymerase during transcription and replication. Additionally, the C-terminus region of the protein preceding the disordered region, is predicted to be important for interacting with the encapsidated genome. Portions of the N-terminus are responsible for N∶N stability and interactions identified by the presence or lack of co-evolving intra-protein contact predictions. The validation of these prediction results by current structural information illustrates the benefits of the Disorder, Intra-residue contact and Compensatory mutation Correlator (DisICC) pipeline as a method for quickly characterizing proteins and providing the most likely residues and regions necessary to target for disruption in viruses that have little structural information available. PMID:21559282

  4. The cutoff phenomenon in finite Markov chains.

    PubMed Central

    Diaconis, P

    1996-01-01

    Natural mixing processes modeled by Markov chains often show a sharp cutoff in their convergence to long-time behavior. This paper presents problems where the cutoff can be proved (card shuffling, the Ehrenfests' urn). It shows that chains with polynomial growth (drunkard's walk) do not show cutoffs. The best general understanding of such cutoffs (high multiplicity of second eigenvalues due to symmetry) is explored. Examples are given where the symmetry is broken but the cutoff phenomenon persists. PMID:11607633

  5. Numerical methods in Markov chain modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Philippe, Bernard; Saad, Youcef; Stewart, William J.

    1989-01-01

    Several methods for computing stationary probability distributions of Markov chains are described and compared. The main linear algebra problem consists of computing an eigenvector of a sparse, usually nonsymmetric, matrix associated with a known eigenvalue. It can also be cast as a problem of solving a homogeneous singular linear system. Several methods based on combinations of Krylov subspace techniques are presented. The performance of these methods on some realistic problems are compared.

  6. The infinite hidden Markov random field model.

    PubMed

    Chatzis, Sotirios P; Tsechpenakis, Gabriel

    2010-06-01

    Hidden Markov random field (HMRF) models are widely used for image segmentation, as they appear naturally in problems where a spatially constrained clustering scheme is asked for. A major limitation of HMRF models concerns the automatic selection of the proper number of their states, i.e., the number of region clusters derived by the image segmentation procedure. Existing methods, including likelihood- or entropy-based criteria, and reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, usually tend to yield noisy model size estimates while imposing heavy computational requirements. Recently, Dirichlet process (DP, infinite) mixture models have emerged in the cornerstone of nonparametric Bayesian statistics as promising candidates for clustering applications where the number of clusters is unknown a priori; infinite mixture models based on the original DP or spatially constrained variants of it have been applied in unsupervised image segmentation applications showing promising results. Under this motivation, to resolve the aforementioned issues of HMRF models, in this paper, we introduce a nonparametric Bayesian formulation for the HMRF model, the infinite HMRF model, formulated on the basis of a joint Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) and Markov random field (MRF) construction. We derive an efficient variational Bayesian inference algorithm for the proposed model, and we experimentally demonstrate its advantages over competing methodologies.

  7. A bottom-up approach for the synthesis of highly ordered fullerene-intercalated graphene hybrids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gournis, Dimitrios; Kouloumpis, Antonios; Dimos, Konstantinos; Spyrou, Konstantinos; Georgakilas, Vasilios; Rudolf, Petra

    2015-02-01

    Much of the research effort on graphene focuses on its use as a building block for the development of new hybrid nanostructures with well-defined dimensions and properties suitable for applications such as gas storage, heterogeneous catalysis, gas/liquid separations, nanosensing and biomedicine. Towards this aim, here we describe a new bottom-up approach, which combines self-assembly with the Langmuir Schaefer deposition technique to synthesize graphene-based layered hybrid materials hosting fullerene molecules within the interlayer space. Our film preparation consists in a bottom-up layer-by-layer process that proceeds via the formation of a hybrid organo-graphene oxide Langmuir film. The structure and composition of these hybrid fullerene-containing thin multilayers deposited on hydrophobic substrates were characterized by a combination of X-ray diffraction, Raman and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopies, atomic force microscopy and conductivity measurements. The latter revealed that the presence of C60 within the interlayer spacing leads to an increase in electrical conductivity of the hybrid material as compared to the organo-graphene matrix alone.

  8. Growth of highly ordered colloidal photonic crystals using a modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Yong, Virginia; Aagesen, Larry K; Chang, Robert P H

    2008-10-29

    Colloidal photonic crystals were grown using a vertical deposition method. The effect of colloidal concentration and deposition rate on crystalline quality and domain size was studied by means of response surface design. The crystalline quality was assessed using the optical reflectance. The results show that a strong negative correlation exists between the reflectance and the full width at half-maximum (FWHM), as illustrated by the close optimal region between maximizing reflectance and minimizing FWHM. For reflectance and FWHM, the quadratic effect of colloidal concentration is highly significant. For domain size, the colloidal concentration-lifting speed interaction effect was found to be significant. The observed colloidal concentration-lifting speed interaction effect explains the controversy that a low deposition rate is desirable at low colloidal concentrations, whereas a high deposition rate is favorable at high colloidal concentrations. Predictive models relating the important factors to the reflectance, FWHM, and domain size are proposed in the paper. The resulting optimal recipe shows a well-ordered structure with good optical reflectance, consistent with the prediction from modeling.

  9. An improved phase shift approach to the energy correction of the infinite order sudden approximation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, B.; Eno, L.; Rabitz, H.

    1980-07-01

    A new method is presented for obtaining energy corrections to the infinite order sudden (IOS) approximation by incorporating the effect of the internal molecular Hamiltonian into the IOS wave function. This is done by utilizing the JWKB approximation to transform the Schrödinger equation into a differential equation for the phase. It is found that the internal Hamiltonian generates an effective potential from which a new improved phase shift is obtained. This phase shift is then used in place of the IOS phase shift to generate new transition probabilities. As an illustration the resulting improved phase shift (IPS) method is applied to the Secrest-Johnson model for the collinear collision of an atom and diatom. In the vicinity of the sudden limit, the IPS method gives results for transition probabilities, Pn→n+Δn, in significantly better agreement with the 'exact' close coupling calculations than the IOS method, particularly for large Δn. However, when the IOS results are not even qualitatively correct, the IPS method is unable to satisfactorily provide improvements.

  10. A New Approach for Mining Order-Preserving Submatrices Based on All Common Subsequences.

    PubMed

    Xue, Yun; Liao, Zhengling; Li, Meihang; Luo, Jie; Kuang, Qiuhua; Hu, Xiaohui; Li, Tiechen

    2015-01-01

    Order-preserving submatrices (OPSMs) have been applied in many fields, such as DNA microarray data analysis, automatic recommendation systems, and target marketing systems, as an important unsupervised learning model. Unfortunately, most existing methods are heuristic algorithms which are unable to reveal OPSMs entirely in NP-complete problem. In particular, deep OPSMs, corresponding to long patterns with few supporting sequences, incur explosive computational costs and are completely pruned by most popular methods. In this paper, we propose an exact method to discover all OPSMs based on frequent sequential pattern mining. First, an existing algorithm was adjusted to disclose all common subsequence (ACS) between every two row sequences, and therefore all deep OPSMs will not be missed. Then, an improved data structure for prefix tree was used to store and traverse ACS, and Apriori principle was employed to efficiently mine the frequent sequential pattern. Finally, experiments were implemented on gene and synthetic datasets. Results demonstrated the effectiveness and efficiency of this method. PMID:26161131

  11. Gravitational-wave implications for structure formation: A second-order approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pazouli, Despoina; Tsagas, Christos G.

    2016-03-01

    Gravitational waves are propagating undulations in the spacetime fabric, which interact very weakly with their environment. In cosmology, gravitational-wave distortions are produced by most of the inflationary scenarios and their anticipated detection should open a new window to the early Universe. Motivated by the relative lack of studies on the potential implications of gravitational radiation for the large-scale structure of the Universe, we consider its coupling to density perturbations during the postrecombination era. We do so by assuming an Einstein-de Sitter background cosmology and by employing a second-order perturbation study. At this perturbative level and on superhorizon scales, we find that gravitational radiation adds a distinct and faster growing mode to the standard linear solution for the density contrast. Given the expected weakness of cosmological gravitational waves, however, the effect of the new mode is currently subdominant and it could start becoming noticeable only in the far future. Nevertheless, this still raises the intriguing possibility that the late-time evolution of large-scale density perturbations may be dictated by the long-range (the Weyl), rather than the local (the Ricci) component of the gravitational field.

  12. A universal approach to fabricate ordered colloidal crystals arrays based on electrostatic self-assembly.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xun; Zhang, Junhu; Zhu, Difu; Li, Xiao; Zhang, Xuemin; Wang, Tieqiang; Yang, Bai

    2010-12-01

    We present a novel and simple method to fabricate two-dimensional (2D) poly(styrene sulfate) (PSS, negatively charged) colloidal crystals on a positively charged substrate. Our strategy contains two separate steps: one is the three-dimensional (3D) assembly of PSS particles in ethanol, and the other is electrostatic adsorption in water. First, 3D assembly in ethanol phase eliminates electrostatic attractions between colloids and the substrate. As a result, high-quality colloidal crystals are easily generated, for electrostatic attractions are unfavorable for the movement of colloidal particles during convective self-assembly. Subsequently, top layers of colloidal spheres are washed away in the water phase, whereas well-packed PSS colloids that are in contact with the substrate are tightly linked due to electrostatic interactions, resulting in the formation of ordered arrays of 2D colloidal spheres. Cycling these processes leads to the layer-by-layer assembly of 3D colloidal crystals with controllable layers. In addition, this strategy can be extended to the fabrication of patterned 2D colloidal crystals on patterned polyelectrolyte surfaces, not only on planar substrates but also on nonplanar substrates. This straightforward method may open up new possibilities for practical use of colloidal crystals of excellent quality, various patterns, and controllable fashions.

  13. A Bayesian method for construction of Markov models to describe dynamics on various time-scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rains, Emily K.; Andersen, Hans C.

    2010-10-01

    The dynamics of many biological processes of interest, such as the folding of a protein, are slow and complicated enough that a single molecular dynamics simulation trajectory of the entire process is difficult to obtain in any reasonable amount of time. Moreover, one such simulation may not be sufficient to develop an understanding of the mechanism of the process, and multiple simulations may be necessary. One approach to circumvent this computational barrier is the use of Markov state models. These models are useful because they can be constructed using data from a large number of shorter simulations instead of a single long simulation. This paper presents a new Bayesian method for the construction of Markov models from simulation data. A Markov model is specified by (τ,P,T), where τ is the mesoscopic time step, P is a partition of configuration space into mesostates, and T is an NP×NP transition rate matrix for transitions between the mesostates in one mesoscopic time step, where NP is the number of mesostates in P. The method presented here is different from previous Bayesian methods in several ways. (1) The method uses Bayesian analysis to determine the partition as well as the transition probabilities. (2) The method allows the construction of a Markov model for any chosen mesoscopic time-scale τ. (3) It constructs Markov models for which the diagonal elements of T are all equal to or greater than 0.5. Such a model will be called a "consistent mesoscopic Markov model" (CMMM). Such models have important advantages for providing an understanding of the dynamics on a mesoscopic time-scale. The Bayesian method uses simulation data to find a posterior probability distribution for (P,T) for any chosen τ. This distribution can be regarded as the Bayesian probability that the kinetics observed in the atomistic simulation data on the mesoscopic time-scale τ was generated by the CMMM specified by (P,T). An optimization algorithm is used to find the most probable

  14. Markov-CA model using analytical hierarchy process and multiregression technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omar, N. Q.; Sanusi, S. A. M.; Hussin, W. M. W.; Samat, N.; Mohammed, K. S.

    2014-06-01

    The unprecedented increase in population and rapid rate of urbanisation has led to extensive land use changes. Cellular automata (CA) are increasingly used to simulate a variety of urban dynamics. This paper introduces a new CA based on an integration model built-in multi regression and multi-criteria evaluation to improve the representation of CA transition rule. This multi-criteria evaluation is implemented by utilising data relating to the environmental and socioeconomic factors in the study area in order to produce suitability maps (SMs) using an analytical hierarchical process, which is a well-known method. Before being integrated to generate suitability maps for the periods from 1984 to 2010 based on the different decision makings, which have become conditioned for the next step of CA generation. The suitability maps are compared in order to find the best maps based on the values of the root equation (R2). This comparison can help the stakeholders make better decisions. Thus, the resultant suitability map derives a predefined transition rule for the last step for CA model. The approach used in this study highlights a mechanism for monitoring and evaluating land-use and land-cover changes in Kirkuk city, Iraq owing changes in the structures of governments, wars, and an economic blockade over the past decades. The present study asserts the high applicability and flexibility of Markov-CA model. The results have shown that the model and its interrelated concepts are performing rather well.

  15. Accurate Estimation of Protein Folding and Unfolding Times: Beyond Markov State Models.

    PubMed

    Suárez, Ernesto; Adelman, Joshua L; Zuckerman, Daniel M

    2016-08-01

    Because standard molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are unable to access time scales of interest in complex biomolecular systems, it is common to "stitch together" information from multiple shorter trajectories using approximate Markov state model (MSM) analysis. However, MSMs may require significant tuning and can yield biased results. Here, by analyzing some of the longest protein MD data sets available (>100 μs per protein), we show that estimators constructed based on exact non-Markovian (NM) principles can yield significantly improved mean first-passage times (MFPTs) for protein folding and unfolding. In some cases, MSM bias of more than an order of magnitude can be corrected when identical trajectory data are reanalyzed by non-Markovian approaches. The NM analysis includes "history" information, higher order time correlations compared to MSMs, that is available in every MD trajectory. The NM strategy is insensitive to fine details of the states used and works well when a fine time-discretization (i.e., small "lag time") is used. PMID:27340835

  16. Fractional-order elastic models of cartilage: A multi-scale approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magin, Richard L.; Royston, Thomas J.

    2010-03-01

    The objective of this research is to develop new quantitative methods to describe the elastic properties (e.g., shear modulus, viscosity) of biological tissues such as cartilage. Cartilage is a connective tissue that provides the lining for most of the joints in the body. Tissue histology of cartilage reveals a multi-scale architecture that spans a wide range from individual collagen and proteoglycan molecules to families of twisted macromolecular fibers and fibrils, and finally to a network of cells and extracellular matrix that form layers in the connective tissue. The principal cells in cartilage are chondrocytes that function at the microscopic scale by creating nano-scale networks of proteins whose biomechanical properties are ultimately expressed at the macroscopic scale in the tissue's viscoelasticity. The challenge for the bioengineer is to develop multi-scale modeling tools that predict the three-dimensional macro-scale mechanical performance of cartilage from micro-scale models. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and MR elastography (MRE) provide a basis for developing such models based on the nondestructive biomechanical assessment of cartilage in vitro and in vivo. This approach, for example, uses MRI to visualize developing proto-cartilage structure, MRE to characterize the shear modulus of such structures, and fractional calculus to describe the dynamic behavior. Such models can be extended using hysteresis modeling to account for the non-linear nature of the tissue. These techniques extend the existing computational methods to predict stiffness and strength, to assess short versus long term load response, and to measure static versus dynamic response to mechanical loads over a wide range of frequencies (50-1500 Hz). In the future, such methods can perhaps be used to help identify early changes in regenerative connective tissue at the microscopic scale and to enable more effective diagnostic monitoring of the onset of disease.

  17. Active Inference for Binary Symmetric Hidden Markov Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Galstyan, Aram

    2015-10-01

    We consider active maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference problem for hidden Markov models (HMM), where, given an initial MAP estimate of the hidden sequence, we select to label certain states in the sequence to improve the estimation accuracy of the remaining states. We focus on the binary symmetric HMM, and employ its known mapping to 1d Ising model in random fields. From the statistical physics viewpoint, the active MAP inference problem reduces to analyzing the ground state of the 1d Ising model under modified external fields. We develop an analytical approach and obtain a closed form solution that relates the expected error reduction to model parameters under the specified active inference scheme. We then use this solution to determine most optimal active inference scheme in terms of error reduction, and examine the relation of those schemes to heuristic principles of uncertainty reduction and solution unicity.

  18. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo Models of Starburst Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melnick, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    There are a number of stochastic effects that must be considered when comparing models to observations of starburst clusters: the IMF is never fully populated; the stars can never be strictly coeval; stars rotate and their photometric properties depend on orientation; a significant fraction of massive stars are in interacting binaries; and the extinction varies from star to star. The probability distributions of each of these effects are not a priori known, but must be extracted from the observations. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods appear to provide the best statistical approach. Here I present an example of stochastic age effects upon the upper mass limit of the IMF of the Arches cluster as derived from near-IR photometry.

  19. From empirical data to time-inhomogeneous continuous Markov processes.

    PubMed

    Lencastre, Pedro; Raischel, Frank; Rogers, Tim; Lind, Pedro G

    2016-03-01

    We present an approach for testing for the existence of continuous generators of discrete stochastic transition matrices. Typically, existing methods to ascertain the existence of continuous Markov processes are based on the assumption that only time-homogeneous generators exist. Here a systematic extension to time inhomogeneity is presented, based on new mathematical propositions incorporating necessary and sufficient conditions, which are then implemented computationally and applied to numerical data. A discussion concerning the bridging between rigorous mathematical results on the existence of generators to its computational implementation is presented. Our detection algorithm shows to be effective in more than 60% of tested matrices, typically 80% to 90%, and for those an estimate of the (nonhomogeneous) generator matrix follows. We also solve the embedding problem analytically for the particular case of three-dimensional circulant matrices. Finally, a discussion of possible applications of our framework to problems in different fields is briefly addressed.

  20. Understanding eye movements in face recognition using hidden Markov models.

    PubMed

    Chuk, Tim; Chan, Antoni B; Hsiao, Janet H

    2014-09-16

    We use a hidden Markov model (HMM) based approach to analyze eye movement data in face recognition. HMMs are statistical models that are specialized in handling time-series data. We conducted a face recognition task with Asian participants, and model each participant's eye movement pattern with an HMM, which summarized the participant's scan paths in face recognition with both regions of interest and the transition probabilities among them. By clustering these HMMs, we showed that participants' eye movements could be categorized into holistic or analytic patterns, demonstrating significant individual differences even within the same culture. Participants with the analytic pattern had longer response times, but did not differ significantly in recognition accuracy from those with the holistic pattern. We also found that correct and wrong recognitions were associated with distinctive eye movement patterns; the difference between the two patterns lies in the transitions rather than locations of the fixations alone.

  1. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodrich, Michael S.

    2011-01-01

    Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

  2. From empirical data to time-inhomogeneous continuous Markov processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lencastre, Pedro; Raischel, Frank; Rogers, Tim; Lind, Pedro G.

    2016-03-01

    We present an approach for testing for the existence of continuous generators of discrete stochastic transition matrices. Typically, existing methods to ascertain the existence of continuous Markov processes are based on the assumption that only time-homogeneous generators exist. Here a systematic extension to time inhomogeneity is presented, based on new mathematical propositions incorporating necessary and sufficient conditions, which are then implemented computationally and applied to numerical data. A discussion concerning the bridging between rigorous mathematical results on the existence of generators to its computational implementation is presented. Our detection algorithm shows to be effective in more than 60 % of tested matrices, typically 80 % to 90 % , and for those an estimate of the (nonhomogeneous) generator matrix follows. We also solve the embedding problem analytically for the particular case of three-dimensional circulant matrices. Finally, a discussion of possible applications of our framework to problems in different fields is briefly addressed.

  3. Inferring phenomenological models of Markov processes from data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivera, Catalina; Nemenman, Ilya

    Microscopically accurate modeling of stochastic dynamics of biochemical networks is hard due to the extremely high dimensionality of the state space of such networks. Here we propose an algorithm for inference of phenomenological, coarse-grained models of Markov processes describing the network dynamics directly from data, without the intermediate step of microscopically accurate modeling. The approach relies on the linear nature of the Chemical Master Equation and uses Bayesian Model Selection for identification of parsimonious models that fit the data. When applied to synthetic data from the Kinetic Proofreading process (KPR), a common mechanism used by cells for increasing specificity of molecular assembly, the algorithm successfully uncovers the known coarse-grained description of the process. This phenomenological description has been notice previously, but this time it is derived in an automated manner by the algorithm. James S. McDonnell Foundation Grant No. 220020321.

  4. From empirical data to time-inhomogeneous continuous Markov processes.

    PubMed

    Lencastre, Pedro; Raischel, Frank; Rogers, Tim; Lind, Pedro G

    2016-03-01

    We present an approach for testing for the existence of continuous generators of discrete stochastic transition matrices. Typically, existing methods to ascertain the existence of continuous Markov processes are based on the assumption that only time-homogeneous generators exist. Here a systematic extension to time inhomogeneity is presented, based on new mathematical propositions incorporating necessary and sufficient conditions, which are then implemented computationally and applied to numerical data. A discussion concerning the bridging between rigorous mathematical results on the existence of generators to its computational implementation is presented. Our detection algorithm shows to be effective in more than 60% of tested matrices, typically 80% to 90%, and for those an estimate of the (nonhomogeneous) generator matrix follows. We also solve the embedding problem analytically for the particular case of three-dimensional circulant matrices. Finally, a discussion of possible applications of our framework to problems in different fields is briefly addressed. PMID:27078320

  5. Causal Markov random field for brain MR image segmentation.

    PubMed

    Razlighi, Qolamreza R; Orekhov, Aleksey; Laine, Andrew; Stern, Yaakov

    2012-01-01

    We propose a new Bayesian classifier, based on the recently introduced causal Markov random field (MRF) model, Quadrilateral MRF (QMRF). We use a second order inhomogeneous anisotropic QMRF to model the prior and likelihood probabilities in the maximum a posteriori (MAP) classifier, named here as MAP-QMRF. The joint distribution of QMRF is given in terms of the product of two dimensional clique distributions existing in its neighboring structure. 20 manually labeled human brain MR images are used to train and assess the MAP-QMRF classifier using the jackknife validation method. Comparing the results of the proposed classifier and FreeSurfer on the Dice overlap measure shows an average gain of 1.8%. We have performed a power analysis to demonstrate that this increase in segmentation accuracy substantially reduces the number of samples required to detect a 5% change in volume of a brain region.

  6. Combining Wavelet Transform and Hidden Markov Models for ECG Segmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreão, Rodrigo Varejão; Boudy, Jérôme

    2006-12-01

    This work aims at providing new insights on the electrocardiogram (ECG) segmentation problem using wavelets. The wavelet transform has been originally combined with a hidden Markov models (HMMs) framework in order to carry out beat segmentation and classification. A group of five continuous wavelet functions commonly used in ECG analysis has been implemented and compared using the same framework. All experiments were realized on the QT database, which is composed of a representative number of ambulatory recordings of several individuals and is supplied with manual labels made by a physician. Our main contribution relies on the consistent set of experiments performed. Moreover, the results obtained in terms of beat segmentation and premature ventricular beat (PVC) detection are comparable to others works reported in the literature, independently of the type of the wavelet. Finally, through an original concept of combining two wavelet functions in the segmentation stage, we achieve our best performances.

  7. CAUSAL MARKOV RANDOM FIELD FOR BRAIN MR IMAGE SEGMENTATION

    PubMed Central

    Razlighi, Qolamreza R.; Orekhov, Aleksey; Laine, Andrew; Stern, Yaakov

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new Bayesian classifier, based on the recently introduced causal Markov random field (MRF) model, Quadrilateral MRF (QMRF). We use a second order inhomogeneous anisotropic QMRF to model the prior and likelihood probabilities in the maximum a posteriori (MAP) classifier, named here as MAP-QMRF. The joint distribution of QMRF is given in terms of the product of two dimensional clique distributions existing in its neighboring structure. 20 manually labeled human brain MR images are used to train and assess the MAP-QMRF classifier using the jackknife validation method. Comparing the results of the proposed classifier and FreeSurfer on the Dice overlap measure shows an average gain of 1.8%. We have performed a power analysis to demonstrate that this increase in segmentation accuracy substantially reduces the number of samples required to detect a 5% change in volume of a brain region. PMID:23366607

  8. Vision-based road detection by hidden Markov model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yanqing; Chen, Deyun; Tao, Liyuan; Shi, Chaoxia

    2009-07-01

    A novel vision-based road detection method was proposed in this paper to realize visual guiding navigation for ground mobile vehicles (GMV). The original image captured by single camera was first segmented into the road region and nonroad region by using an adaptive threshold segmentation algorithm named OTSU. Subsequently, the Canny edges extracted in grey images would be filtered in the road region so that the road boundary could be recognized accurately among those disturbances caused by other edges existed in the image. In order to improve the performance of road detection, the dynamics of GMV and the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) was taken into account to associate the possible road boundary at different time step. The method proposed in this paper was robust against strong shadows, surface dilapidation and illumination variations. It has been tested on real GMV and performed well in real road environments.

  9. Markov random-field-based anomaly screening algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bello, Martin G.

    1995-06-01

    A novel anomaly screening algorithm is described which makes use of a regression diagnostic associated with the fitting of Markov Random Field (MRF) models. This regression diagnostic quantifies the extent to which a given neighborhood of pixels is atypical, relative to local background characteristics. The screening algorithm consists first in the calculation of an MRF-based anomoly statistic values. Next, 'blob' features, such as pixel count and maximal pixel intensity are calculated, and ranked over the image, in order to 'filter' the blobs to some final subset of most likely candidates. Receiver operating characteristics obtained from applying the above described screening algorithm to the detection of minelike targets in high- and low-frequency side-scan sonar imagery are presented together with results obtained from other screening algorithms for comparison, demonstrating performance comparable to trained human operators. In addition, real-time implementation considerations associated with each algorithmic component of the described procedure are identified.

  10. A hidden Markov model for space-time precipitation

    SciTech Connect

    Zucchini, W. ); Guttorp, P. )

    1991-08-01

    Stochastic models for precipitation events in space and time over mesoscale spatial areas have important applications in hydrology, both as input to runoff models and as parts of general circulation models (GCMs) of global climate. A family of multivariate models for the occurrence/nonoccurrence of precipitation at N sites is constructed by assuming a different probability of events at the sites for each of a number of unobservable climate states. The climate process is assumed to follow a Markov chain. Simple formulae for first- and second-order parameter functions are derived, and used to find starting values for a numerical maximization of the likelihood. The method is illustrated by applying it to data for one site in Washington and to data for a network in the Great plains.

  11. A Markov Chain-based quantitative study of angular distribution of photons through turbid slabs via isotropic light scattering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xuesong; Northrop, William F.

    2016-04-01

    This paper describes a quantitative approach to approximate multiple scattering through an isotropic turbid slab based on Markov Chain theorem. There is an increasing need to utilize multiple scattering for optical diagnostic purposes; however, existing methods are either inaccurate or computationally expensive. Here, we develop a novel Markov Chain approximation approach to solve multiple scattering angular distribution (AD) that can accurately calculate AD while significantly reducing computational cost compared to Monte Carlo simulation. We expect this work to stimulate ongoing multiple scattering research and deterministic reconstruction algorithm development with AD measurements.

  12. [Markov process of vegetation cover change in arid area of northwest China based on FVC index].

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhi; Chang, Shun-li; Shi, Qing-dong; Ma, Ke; Liang, Feng-chao

    2010-05-01

    Based on the fractional vegetation cover (FVC) data of 1982-2000 NOAA/AVHRR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) images, the whole arid area of Northwest China was divided into three sub-areas, and then, the vegetation cover in each sub-area was classified by altitude. Furthermore, the Markov process of vegetation cover change was analyzed and tested through calculating the limit probability of any two years and the continuous and interval mean transition matrixes of vegetation cover change with 8 km x 8 km spatial resolution. By this method, the Markov process of vegetation cover change and its indicative significance were approached. The results showed that the vegetation cover change in the study area was controlled by some random processes and affected by long-term stable driving factors, and the transitional change of vegetation cover was a multiple Markov process. Therefore, only using two term image data, no matter they were successive or intervallic, Markov process could not accurately estimate the trend of vegetation cover change. As for the arid area of Northwest China, more than 10 years successive data could basically reflect all the factors affecting regional vegetation cover change, and using long term average transition matrix data could reliably simulate and predict the vegetation cover change. Vegetation cover change was a long term dynamic balance. Once the balance was broken down, it should be a long time process to establish a new balance.

  13. Ancestral population genomics using coalescence hidden Markov models and heuristic optimisation algorithms.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Jade Yu; Mailund, Thomas

    2015-08-01

    With full genome data from several closely related species now readily available, we have the ultimate data for demographic inference. Exploiting these full genomes, however, requires models that can explicitly model recombination along alignments of full chromosomal length. Over the last decade a class of models, based on the sequential Markov coalescence model combined with hidden Markov models, has been developed and used to make inference in simple demographic scenarios. To move forward to more complex demographic modelling we need better and more automated ways of specifying these models and efficient optimisation algorithms for inferring the parameters in complex and often high-dimensional models. In this paper we present a framework for building such coalescence hidden Markov models for pairwise alignments and present results for using heuristic optimisation algorithms for parameter estimation. We show that we can build more complex demographic models than our previous frameworks and that we obtain more accurate parameter estimates using heuristic optimisation algorithms than when using our previous gradient based approaches. Our new framework provides a flexible way of constructing coalescence hidden Markov models almost automatically. While estimating parameters in more complex models is still challenging we show that using heuristic optimisation algorithms we still get a fairly good accuracy.

  14. Markov switching of the electricity supply curve and power prices dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mari, Carlo; Cananà, Lucianna

    2012-02-01

    Regime-switching models seem to well capture the main features of power prices behavior in deregulated markets. In a recent paper, we have proposed an equilibrium methodology to derive electricity prices dynamics from the interplay between supply and demand in a stochastic environment. In particular, assuming that the supply function is described by a power law where the exponent is a two-state strictly positive Markov process, we derived a regime switching dynamics of power prices in which regime switches are induced by transitions between Markov states. In this paper, we provide a dynamical model to describe the random behavior of power prices where the only non-Brownian component of the motion is endogenously introduced by Markov transitions in the exponent of the electricity supply curve. In this context, the stochastic process driving the switching mechanism becomes observable, and we will show that the non-Brownian component of the dynamics induced by transitions from Markov states is responsible for jumps and spikes of very high magnitude. The empirical analysis performed on three Australian markets confirms that the proposed approach seems quite flexible and capable of incorporating the main features of power prices time-series, thus reproducing the first four moments of log-returns empirical distributions in a satisfactory way.

  15. Treatment-based Markov chain models clarify mechanisms of invasion in an invaded grassland community.

    PubMed

    Nelis, Lisa Castillo; Wootton, J Timothy

    2010-02-22

    What are the relative roles of mechanisms underlying plant responses in grassland communities invaded by both plants and mammals? What type of community can we expect in the future given current or novel conditions? We address these questions by comparing Markov chain community models among treatments from a field experiment on invasive species on Robinson Crusoe Island, Chile. Because of seed dispersal, grazing and disturbance, we predicted that the exotic European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) facilitates epizoochorous exotic plants (plants with seeds that stick to the skin an animal) at the expense of native plants. To test our hypothesis, we crossed rabbit exclosure treatments with disturbance treatments, and sampled the plant community in permanent plots over 3 years. We then estimated Markov chain model transition probabilities and found significant differences among treatments. As hypothesized, this modelling revealed that exotic plants survive better in disturbed areas, while natives prefer no rabbits or disturbance. Surprisingly, rabbits negatively affect epizoochorous plants. Markov chain dynamics indicate that an overall replacement of native plants by exotic plants is underway. Using a treatment-based approach to multi-species Markov chain models allowed us to examine the changes in the importance of mechanisms in response to experimental impacts on communities.

  16. Quantitative safety assessment of computer based I and C systems via modular Markov analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Elks, C. R.; Yu, Y.; Johnson, B. W.

    2006-07-01

    This paper gives a brief overview of the methodology based on quantitative metrics for evaluating digital I and C system that has been under development at the Univ. of Virginia for a number years. Our quantitative assessment methodology is based on three well understood and extensively practiced disciplines in the dependability assessment field: (1) System level fault modeling and fault injection, (2) safety and coverage based dependability modeling methods, and (3) statistical estimation of model parameters used for safety predication. There are two contributions of this paper; the first contribution is related to incorporating design flaw information into homogenous Markov models when such data is available. The second is to introduce a Markov modeling method for managing the modeling complexities of large distributed I and C systems for the predication of safety and reliability. The method is called Modular Markov Chain analysis. This method allows Markov models of the system to be composed in a modular manner. In doing so, it address two important issues. (1) The models are more visually representative of the functional the system. (2) Important failure dependencies that naturally occur in complex systems are modeled accurately with our approach. (authors)

  17. Treatment-based Markov chain models clarify mechanisms of invasion in an invaded grassland community

    PubMed Central

    Nelis, Lisa Castillo; Wootton, J. Timothy

    2010-01-01

    What are the relative roles of mechanisms underlying plant responses in grassland communities invaded by both plants and mammals? What type of community can we expect in the future given current or novel conditions? We address these questions by comparing Markov chain community models among treatments from a field experiment on invasive species on Robinson Crusoe Island, Chile. Because of seed dispersal, grazing and disturbance, we predicted that the exotic European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) facilitates epizoochorous exotic plants (plants with seeds that stick to the skin an animal) at the expense of native plants. To test our hypothesis, we crossed rabbit exclosure treatments with disturbance treatments, and sampled the plant community in permanent plots over 3 years. We then estimated Markov chain model transition probabilities and found significant differences among treatments. As hypothesized, this modelling revealed that exotic plants survive better in disturbed areas, while natives prefer no rabbits or disturbance. Surprisingly, rabbits negatively affect epizoochorous plants. Markov chain dynamics indicate that an overall replacement of native plants by exotic plants is underway. Using a treatment-based approach to multi-species Markov chain models allowed us to examine the changes in the importance of mechanisms in response to experimental impacts on communities. PMID:19864293

  18. Genetic algorithms optimization approach supported by the first-order derivative and Newton-Raphson methods: Application to fluorescence spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisz, J. J.; Buczkowski, M.; Budziński, M. P.; Kolenderski, P.

    2005-05-01

    The application of genetic algorithms (GA) optimization approach supported by the first-order derivative (FOD) and Newton-Raphson (NR) methods to time-resolved polarized fluorescence spectroscopy, is discussed. It is demonstrated that the application of both methods to χ2 function reduces the number of adjustable model parameters. The combination of GA-optimizer with the FOD and NR methods improves considerably the efficiency of global analysis of kinetic and polarized fluorescence decays for solutions and organized media, including the case of excited-state processes.

  19. Threshold partitioning of sparse matrices and applications to Markov chains

    SciTech Connect

    Choi, Hwajeong; Szyld, D.B.

    1996-12-31

    It is well known that the order of the variables and equations of a large, sparse linear system influences the performance of classical iterative methods. In particular if, after a symmetric permutation, the blocks in the diagonal have more nonzeros, classical block methods have a faster asymptotic rate of convergence. In this paper, different ordering and partitioning algorithms for sparse matrices are presented. They are modifications of PABLO. In the new algorithms, in addition to the location of the nonzeros, the values of the entries are taken into account. The matrix resulting after the symmetric permutation has dense blocks along the diagonal, and small entries in the off-diagonal blocks. Parameters can be easily adjusted to obtain, for example, denser blocks, or blocks with elements of larger magnitude. In particular, when the matrices represent Markov chains, the permuted matrices are well suited for block iterative methods that find the corresponding probability distribution. Applications to three types of methods are explored: (1) Classical block methods, such as Block Gauss Seidel. (2) Preconditioned GMRES, where a block diagonal preconditioner is used. (3) Iterative aggregation method (also called aggregation/disaggregation) where the partition obtained from the ordering algorithm with certain parameters is used as an aggregation scheme. In all three cases, experiments are presented which illustrate the performance of the methods with the new orderings. The complexity of the new algorithms is linear in the number of nonzeros and the order of the matrix, and thus adding little computational effort to the overall solution.

  20. Hybrid Discrete-Continuous Markov Decision Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feng, Zhengzhu; Dearden, Richard; Meuleau, Nicholas; Washington, Rich

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes a Markov decision process (MDP) model that features both discrete and continuous state variables. We extend previous work by Boyan and Littman on the mono-dimensional time-dependent MDP to multiple dimensions. We present the principle of lazy discretization, and piecewise constant and linear approximations of the model. Having to deal with several continuous dimensions raises several new problems that require new solutions. In the (piecewise) linear case, we use techniques from partially- observable MDPs (POMDPS) to represent value functions as sets of linear functions attached to different partitions of the state space.

  1. Power spectral ensity of markov texture fields

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shanmugan, K. S.; Holtzman, J. C.

    1984-01-01

    Texture is an important image characteristic. A variety of spatial domain techniques were proposed for extracting and utilizing textural features for segmenting and classifying images. for the most part, these spatial domain techniques are ad hos in nature. A markov random field model for image texture is discussed. A frequency domain description of image texture is derived in terms of the power spectral density. This model is used for designing optimum frequency domain filters for enhancing, restoring and segmenting images based on their textural properties.

  2. Markov Chain Analysis of Musical Dice Games

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Volchenkov, D.; Dawin, J. R.

    2012-07-01

    A system for using dice to compose music randomly is known as the musical dice game. The discrete time MIDI models of 804 pieces of classical music written by 29 composers have been encoded into the transition matrices and studied by Markov chains. Contrary to human languages, entropy dominates over redundancy, in the musical dice games based on the compositions of classical music. The maximum complexity is achieved on the blocks consisting of just a few notes (8 notes, for the musical dice games generated over Bach's compositions). First passage times to notes can be used to resolve tonality and feature a composer.

  3. Hidden Markov models for stochastic thermodynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bechhoefer, John

    2015-07-01

    The formalism of state estimation and hidden Markov models can simplify and clarify the discussion of stochastic thermodynamics in the presence of feedback and measurement errors. After reviewing the basic formalism, we use it to shed light on a recent discussion of phase transitions in the optimized response of an information engine, for which measurement noise serves as a control parameter. The HMM formalism also shows that the value of additional information displays a maximum at intermediate signal-to-noise ratios. Finally, we discuss how systems open to information flow can apparently violate causality; the HMM formalism can quantify the performance gains due to such violations.

  4. Learning Heterogeneous Hidden Markov Random Fields

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Jie; Zhang, Chunming; Burnside, Elizabeth; Page, David

    2014-01-01

    Hidden Markov random fields (HMRFs) are conventionally assumed to be homogeneous in the sense that the potential functions are invariant across different sites. However in some biological applications, it is desirable to make HMRFs heterogeneous, especially when there exists some background knowledge about how the potential functions vary. We formally define heterogeneous HMRFs and propose an EM algorithm whose M-step combines a contrastive divergence learner with a kernel smoothing step to incorporate the background knowledge. Simulations show that our algorithm is effective for learning heterogeneous HMRFs and outperforms alternative binning methods. We learn a heterogeneous HMRF in a real-world study. PMID:25404989

  5. Nonpoint source solute transport normal to aquifer bedding in heterogeneous, Markov chain random fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Hua; Harter, Thomas; Sivakumar, Bellie

    2006-06-01

    examined, the third moment of the traveltime pdf varies from negatively skewed to strongly positively skewed. We also show that the Markov chain approach may give significantly different traveltime distributions when compared to the more commonly used Gaussian random field approach, even when the first- and second-order moments in the geostatistical distribution of the lnK field are identical. The choice of the appropriate geostatistical model is therefore critical in the assessment of nonpoint source transport, and uncertainty about that choice must be considered in evaluating the results.

  6. Engineering the path to higher-order thinking in elementary education: A problem-based learning approach for STEM integration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rehmat, Abeera Parvaiz

    As we progress into the 21st century, higher-order thinking skills and achievement in science and math are essential to meet the educational requirement of STEM careers. Educators need to think of innovative ways to engage and prepare students for current and future challenges while cultivating an interest among students in STEM disciplines. An instructional pedagogy that can capture students' attention, support interdisciplinary STEM practices, and foster higher-order thinking skills is problem-based learning. Problem-based learning embedded in the social constructivist view of teaching and learning (Savery & Duffy, 1995) promotes self-regulated learning that is enhanced through exploration, cooperative social activity, and discourse (Fosnot, 1996). This quasi-experimental mixed methods study was conducted with 98 fourth grade students. The study utilized STEM content assessments, a standardized critical thinking test, STEM attitude survey, PBL questionnaire, and field notes from classroom observations to investigate the impact of problem-based learning on students' content knowledge, critical thinking, and their attitude towards STEM. Subsequently, it explored students' experiences of STEM integration in a PBL environment. The quantitative results revealed a significant difference between groups in regards to their content knowledge, critical thinking skills, and STEM attitude. From the qualitative results, three themes emerged: learning approaches, increased interaction, and design and engineering implementation. From the overall data set, students described the PBL environment to be highly interactive that prompted them to employ multiple approaches, including design and engineering to solve the problem.

  7. Markov state model of the two-state behaviour of water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamm, Peter

    2016-10-01

    With the help of a Markov State Model (MSM), two-state behaviour is resolved for two computer models of water in a temperature range from 255 K to room temperature (295 K). The method is first validated for ST2 water, for which the so far strongest evidence for a liquid-liquid phase transition exists. In that case, the results from the MSM can be cross-checked against the radial distribution function g5(r) of the 5th-closest water molecule around a given reference water molecule. The latter is a commonly used local order parameter, which exhibits a bimodal distribution just above the liquid-liquid critical point that represents the low-density form of the liquid (LDL) and the high density liquid. The correlation times and correlation lengths of the corresponding spatial domains are calculated and it is shown that they are connected via a simple diffusion model. Once the approach is established, TIP4P/2005 will be considered, which is the much more realistic representation of real water. The MSM can resolve two-state behavior also in that case, albeit with significantly smaller correlation times and lengths. The population of LDL-like water increases with decreasing temperature, thereby explaining the density maximum at 4 °C along the lines of the two-state model of water.

  8. A Hidden Markov Model for Urban-Scale Traffic Estimation Using Floating Car Data.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiaomeng; Peng, Ling; Chi, Tianhe; Li, Mengzhu; Yao, Xiaojing; Shao, Jing

    2015-01-01

    Urban-scale traffic monitoring plays a vital role in reducing traffic congestion. Owing to its low cost and wide coverage, floating car data (FCD) serves as a novel approach to collecting traffic data. However, sparse probe data represents the vast majority of the data available on arterial roads in most urban environments. In order to overcome the problem of data sparseness, this paper proposes a hidden Markov model (HMM)-based traffic estimation model, in which the traffic condition on a road segment is considered as a hidden state that can be estimated according to the conditions of road segments having similar traffic characteristics. An algorithm based on clustering and pattern mining rather than on adjacency relationships is proposed to find clusters with road segments having similar traffic characteristics. A multi-clustering strategy is adopted to achieve a trade-off between clustering accuracy and coverage. Finally, the proposed model is designed and implemented on the basis of a real-time algorithm. Results of experiments based on real FCD confirm the applicability, accuracy, and efficiency of the model. In addition, the results indicate that the model is practicable for traffic estimation on urban arterials and works well even when more than 70% of the probe data are missing.

  9. Extracting duration information in a picture category decoding task using hidden Markov Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfeiffer, Tim; Heinze, Nicolai; Frysch, Robert; Deouell, Leon Y.; Schoenfeld, Mircea A.; Knight, Robert T.; Rose, Georg

    2016-04-01

    Objective. Adapting classifiers for the purpose of brain signal decoding is a major challenge in brain-computer-interface (BCI) research. In a previous study we showed in principle that hidden Markov models (HMM) are a suitable alternative to the well-studied static classifiers. However, since we investigated a rather straightforward task, advantages from modeling of the signal could not be assessed. Approach. Here, we investigate a more complex data set in order to find out to what extent HMMs, as a dynamic classifier, can provide useful additional information. We show for a visual decoding problem that besides category information, HMMs can simultaneously decode picture duration without an additional training required. This decoding is based on a strong correlation that we found between picture duration and the behavior of the Viterbi paths. Main results. Decoding accuracies of up to 80% could be obtained for category and duration decoding with a single classifier trained on category information only. Significance. The extraction of multiple types of information using a single classifier enables the processing of more complex problems, while preserving good training results even on small databases. Therefore, it provides a convenient framework for online real-life BCI utilizations.

  10. A Hidden Markov Model for Urban-Scale Traffic Estimation Using Floating Car Data

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xiaomeng; Peng, Ling; Chi, Tianhe; Li, Mengzhu; Yao, Xiaojing; Shao, Jing

    2015-01-01

    Urban-scale traffic monitoring plays a vital role in reducing traffic congestion. Owing to its low cost and wide coverage, floating car data (FCD) serves as a novel approach to collecting traffic data. However, sparse probe data represents the vast majority of the data available on arterial roads in most urban environments. In order to overcome the problem of data sparseness, this paper proposes a hidden Markov model (HMM)-based traffic estimation model, in which the traffic condition on a road segment is considered as a hidden state that can be estimated according to the conditions of road segments having similar traffic characteristics. An algorithm based on clustering and pattern mining rather than on adjacency relationships is proposed to find clusters with road segments having similar traffic characteristics. A multi-clustering strategy is adopted to achieve a trade-off between clustering accuracy and coverage. Finally, the proposed model is designed and implemented on the basis of a real-time algorithm. Results of experiments based on real FCD confirm the applicability, accuracy, and efficiency of the model. In addition, the results indicate that the model is practicable for traffic estimation on urban arterials and works well even when more than 70% of the probe data are missing. PMID:26710073

  11. A Hidden Markov Model for Urban-Scale Traffic Estimation Using Floating Car Data.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiaomeng; Peng, Ling; Chi, Tianhe; Li, Mengzhu; Yao, Xiaojing; Shao, Jing

    2015-01-01

    Urban-scale traffic monitoring plays a vital role in reducing traffic congestion. Owing to its low cost and wide coverage, floating car data (FCD) serves as a novel approach to collecting traffic data. However, sparse probe data represents the vast majority of the data available on arterial roads in most urban environments. In order to overcome the problem of data sparseness, this paper proposes a hidden Markov model (HMM)-based traffic estimation model, in which the traffic condition on a road segment is considered as a hidden state that can be estimated according to the conditions of road segments having similar traffic characteristics. An algorithm based on clustering and pattern mining rather than on adjacency relationships is proposed to find clusters with road segments having similar traffic characteristics. A multi-clustering strategy is adopted to achieve a trade-off between clustering accuracy and coverage. Finally, the proposed model is designed and implemented on the basis of a real-time algorithm. Results of experiments based on real FCD confirm the applicability, accuracy, and efficiency of the model. In addition, the results indicate that the model is practicable for traffic estimation on urban arterials and works well even when more than 70% of the probe data are missing. PMID:26710073

  12. Protein modeling with hybrid Hidden Markov Model/Neurel network architectures

    SciTech Connect

    Baldi, P.; Chauvin, Y.

    1995-12-31

    Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are useful in a number of tasks in computational molecular biology, and in particular to model and align protein families. We argue that HMMs are somewhat optimal within a certain modeling hierarchy. Single first order HMMs, however, have two potential limitations: a large number of unstructured parameters, and a built-in inability to deal with long-range dependencies. Hybrid HMM/Neural Network (NN) architectures attempt to overcome these limitations. In hybrid HMM/NN, the HMM parameters are computed by a NN. This provides a reparametrization that allows for flexible control of model complexity, and incorporation of constraints. The approach is tested on the immunoglobulin family. A hybrid model is trained, and a multiple alignment derived, with less than a fourth of the number of parameters used with previous single HMMs. To capture dependencies, however, one must resort to a larger hybrid model class, where the data is modeled by multiple HMMs. The parameters of the HMMs, and their modulation as a function of input or context, is again calculated by a NN.

  13. Composition of Web Services Using Markov Decision Processes and Dynamic Programming

    PubMed Central

    Uc-Cetina, Víctor; Moo-Mena, Francisco; Hernandez-Ucan, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    We propose a Markov decision process model for solving the Web service composition (WSC) problem. Iterative policy evaluation, value iteration, and policy iteration algorithms are used to experimentally validate our approach, with artificial and real data. The experimental results show the reliability of the model and the methods employed, with policy iteration being the best one in terms of the minimum number of iterations needed to estimate an optimal policy, with the highest Quality of Service attributes. Our experimental work shows how the solution of a WSC problem involving a set of 100,000 individual Web services and where a valid composition requiring the selection of 1,000 services from the available set can be computed in the worst case in less than 200 seconds, using an Intel Core i5 computer with 6 GB RAM. Moreover, a real WSC problem involving only 7 individual Web services requires less than 0.08 seconds, using the same computational power. Finally, a comparison with two popular reinforcement learning algorithms, sarsa and Q-learning, shows that these algorithms require one or two orders of magnitude and more time than policy iteration, iterative policy evaluation, and value iteration to handle WSC problems of the same complexity. PMID:25874247

  14. Extracting duration information in a picture category decoding task using hidden Markov Models

    PubMed Central

    Pfeiffer, Tim; Heinze, Nicolai; Frysch, Robert; Deouell, Leon Y; Schoenfeld, Mircea A; Knight, Robert T; Rose, Georg

    2016-01-01

    Objective Adapting classifiers for the purpose of brain signal decoding is a major challenge in brain–computer-interface (BCI) research. In a previous study we showed in principle that hidden Markov models (HMM) are a suitable alternative to the well-studied static classifiers. However, since we investigated a rather straightforward task, advantages from modeling of the signal could not be assessed. Approach Here, we investigate a more complex data set in order to find out to what extent HMMs, as a dynamic classifier, can provide useful additional information. We show for a visual decoding problem that besides category information, HMMs can simultaneously decode picture duration without an additional training required. This decoding is based on a strong correlation that we found between picture duration and the behavior of the Viterbi paths. Main results Decoding accuracies of up to 80% could be obtained for category and duration decoding with a single classifier trained on category information only. Significance The extraction of multiple types of information using a single classifier enables the processing of more complex problems, while preserving good training results even on small databases. Therefore, it provides a convenient framework for online real-life BCI utilizations. PMID:26859831

  15. Unsupervised change detection based on improved Markov random field technique using multichannel synthetic aperture radar images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salehi, Sara; Valadan Zoej, Mohammad Javad

    2014-01-01

    Change detection represents an important remote sensing tool in environmental monitoring and disaster management. In this respect, multichannel synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data offer great potential because of their insensitivity to atmospheric and sun-illumination conditions (over optical multispectral data) and the improved discrimination capability they may provide compared to single-channel SAR. The problem of detecting the changes caused by flooding is addressed by a contextual unsupervised technique based on a Markovian data fusion approach. However, the isotropic formulation of Markov random field (MRF) models causes oversmoothing of spatial boundaries in the final change maps. In order to reduce this drawback, an edge-preserving MRF model is proposed and formulated by using energy functions that combine the edge information extracted from the produced edge maps using competitive fuzzy rules and Canny technique, the information conveyed by each SAR channel, and the spatial contextual information. The proposed technique is experimentally validated with semisimulated data and real ASAR-ENVISAT images. Change detection results obtained by the improved MRF model exhibited a higher accuracy than its predecessors for both semisimulated (average 12%) and real (average 6%) data.

  16. Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models with a hidden Markov structure for the detection of influenza epidemic outbreaks.

    PubMed

    Conesa, D; Martínez-Beneito, M A; Amorós, R; López-Quílez, A

    2015-04-01

    Considerable effort has been devoted to the development of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance data. In this article, we introduce a framework of models for the early detection of the onset of an influenza epidemic which is applicable to different kinds of surveillance data. In particular, the process of the observed cases is modelled via a Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson model in which the intensity parameter is a function of the incidence rate. The key point is to consider this incidence rate as a normal distribution in which both parameters (mean and variance) are modelled differently, depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or non-epidemic phase. To do so, we propose a hidden Markov model in which the transition between both phases is modelled as a function of the epidemic state of the previous week. Different options for modelling the rates are described, including the option of modelling the mean at each phase as autoregressive processes of order 0, 1 or 2. Bayesian inference is carried out to provide the probability of being in an epidemic state at any given moment. The methodology is applied to various influenza data sets. The results indicate that our methods outperform previous approaches in terms of sensitivity, specificity and timeliness.

  17. Real-time classification of humans versus animals using profiling sensors and hidden Markov tree model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hossen, Jakir; Jacobs, Eddie L.; Chari, Srikant

    2015-07-01

    Linear pyroelectric array sensors have enabled useful classifications of objects such as humans and animals to be performed with relatively low-cost hardware in border and perimeter security applications. Ongoing research has sought to improve the performance of these sensors through signal processing algorithms. In the research presented here, we introduce the use of hidden Markov tree (HMT) models for object recognition in images generated by linear pyroelectric sensors. HMTs are trained to statistically model the wavelet features of individual objects through an expectation-maximization learning process. Human versus animal classification for a test object is made by evaluating its wavelet features against the trained HMTs using the maximum-likelihood criterion. The classification performance of this approach is compared to two other techniques; a texture, shape, and spectral component features (TSSF) based classifier and a speeded-up robust feature (SURF) classifier. The evaluation indicates that among the three techniques, the wavelet-based HMT model works well, is robust, and has improved classification performance compared to a SURF-based algorithm in equivalent computation time. When compared to the TSSF-based classifier, the HMT model has a slightly degraded performance but almost an order of magnitude improvement in computation time enabling real-time implementation.

  18. Markov modeling and reliability analysis of urea synthesis system of a fertilizer plant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aggarwal, Anil Kr.; Kumar, Sanjeev; Singh, Vikram; Garg, Tarun Kr.

    2015-12-01

    This paper deals with the Markov modeling and reliability analysis of urea synthesis system of a fertilizer plant. This system was modeled using Markov birth-death process with the assumption that the failure and repair rates of each subsystem follow exponential distribution. The first-order Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equations are developed with the use of mnemonic rule and these equations are solved with Runga-Kutta fourth-order method. The long-run availability, reliability and mean time between failures are computed for various choices of failure and repair rates of subsystems of the system. The findings of the paper are discussed with the plant personnel to adopt and practice suitable maintenance policies/strategies to enhance the performance of the urea synthesis system of the fertilizer plant.

  19. Markov Model of Accident Progression at Fukushima Daiichi

    SciTech Connect

    Cuadra A.; Bari R.; Cheng, L-Y; Ginsberg, T.; Lehner, J.; Martinez-Guridi, G.; Mubayi, V.; Pratt, T.; Yue, M.

    2012-11-11

    On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake followed by a tsunami caused loss of offsite power and disabled the emergency diesel generators, leading to a prolonged station blackout at the Fukushima Daiichi site. After successful reactor trip for all operating reactors, the inability to remove decay heat over an extended period led to boil-off of the water inventory and fuel uncovery in Units 1-3. A significant amount of metal-water reaction occurred, as evidenced by the quantities of hydrogen generated that led to hydrogen explosions in the auxiliary buildings of the Units 1 & 3, and in the de-fuelled Unit 4. Although it was assumed that extensive fuel damage, including fuel melting, slumping, and relocation was likely to have occurred in the core of the affected reactors, the status of the fuel, vessel, and drywell was uncertain. To understand the possible evolution of the accident conditions at Fukushima Daiichi, a Markov model of the likely state of one of the reactors was constructed and executed under different assumptions regarding system performance and reliability. The Markov approach was selected for several reasons: It is a probabilistic model that provides flexibility in scenario construction and incorporates time dependence of different model states. It also readily allows for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of different failure and repair rates of cooling systems. While the analysis was motivated by a need to gain insight on the course of events for the damaged units at Fukushima Daiichi, the work reported here provides a more general analytical basis for studying and evaluating severe accident evolution over extended periods of time. This work was performed at the request of the U.S. Department of Energy to explore 'what-if' scenarios in the immediate aftermath of the accidents.

  20. Unmixing hyperspectral images using Markov random fields

    SciTech Connect

    Eches, Olivier; Dobigeon, Nicolas; Tourneret, Jean-Yves

    2011-03-14

    This paper proposes a new spectral unmixing strategy based on the normal compositional model that exploits the spatial correlations between the image pixels. The pure materials (referred to as endmembers) contained in the image are assumed to be available (they can be obtained by using an appropriate endmember extraction algorithm), while the corresponding fractions (referred to as abundances) are estimated by the proposed algorithm. Due to physical constraints, the abundances have to satisfy positivity and sum-to-one constraints. The image is divided into homogeneous distinct regions having the same statistical properties for the abundance coefficients. The spatial dependencies within each class are modeled thanks to Potts-Markov random fields. Within a Bayesian framework, prior distributions for the abundances and the associated hyperparameters are introduced. A reparametrization of the abundance coefficients is proposed to handle the physical constraints (positivity and sum-to-one) inherent to hyperspectral imagery. The parameters (abundances), hyperparameters (abundance mean and variance for each class) and the classification map indicating the classes of all pixels in the image are inferred from the resulting joint posterior distribution. To overcome the complexity of the joint posterior distribution, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to generate samples asymptotically distributed according to the joint posterior of interest. Simulations conducted on synthetic and real data are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed algorithm.

  1. Monitoring volcano activity through Hidden Markov Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassisi, C.; Montalto, P.; Prestifilippo, M.; Aliotta, M.; Cannata, A.; Patanè, D.

    2013-12-01

    During 2011-2013, Mt. Etna was mainly characterized by cyclic occurrences of lava fountains, totaling to 38 episodes. During this time interval Etna volcano's states (QUIET, PRE-FOUNTAIN, FOUNTAIN, POST-FOUNTAIN), whose automatic recognition is very useful for monitoring purposes, turned out to be strongly related to the trend of RMS (Root Mean Square) of the seismic signal recorded by stations close to the summit area. Since RMS time series behavior is considered to be stochastic, we can try to model the system generating its values, assuming to be a Markov process, by using Hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are a powerful tool in modeling any time-varying series. HMMs analysis seeks to recover the sequence of hidden states from the observed emissions. In our framework, observed emissions are characters generated by the SAX (Symbolic Aggregate approXimation) technique, which maps RMS time series values with discrete literal emissions. The experiments show how it is possible to guess volcano states by means of HMMs and SAX.

  2. A critical assessment of hidden markov model sub-optimal sampling strategies applied to the generation of peptide 3D models.

    PubMed

    Lamiable, A; Thevenet, P; Tufféry, P

    2016-08-01

    Hidden Markov Model derived structural alphabets are a probabilistic framework in which the complete conformational space of a peptidic chain is described in terms of probability distributions that can be sampled to identify conformations of largest probabilities. Here, we assess how three strategies to sample sub-optimal conformations-Viterbi k-best, forward backtrack and a taboo sampling approach-can lead to the efficient generation of peptide conformations. We show that the diversity of sampling is essential to compensate biases introduced in the estimates of the probabilities, and we find that only the forward backtrack and a taboo sampling strategies can efficiently generate native or near-native models. Finally, we also find such approaches are as efficient as former protocols, while being one order of magnitude faster, opening the door to the large scale de novo modeling of peptides and mini-proteins. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27317417

  3. Second-order perturbative corrections to the restricted active space configuration interaction with the hole and particle approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casanova, David

    2014-04-01

    Second-order corrections to the restricted active space configuration interaction (RASCI) with the hole and particle truncation of the excitation operator are developed. Theoretically, the computational cost of the implemented perturbative approach, abbreviated as RASCI(2), grows like its single reference counterpart in MP2. Two different forms of RASCI(2) have been explored, that is the generalized Davidson-Kapuy and the Epstein-Nesbet partitions of the Hamiltonian. The preliminary results indicate that the use of energy level shift of a few tenths of a Hartree might systematically improve the accuracy of the RASCI(2) energies. The method has been tested in the computation of the ground state energy profiles along the dissociation of the hydrogen fluoride and N2 molecules, the computation of correlation energy in the G2/97 molecular test set, and in the computation of excitation energies to low-lying states in small organic molecules.

  4. Synthesis of three-dimensionally ordered macro-/mesoporous Pt with high electrocatalytic activity by a dual-templating approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Chengwei; Yang, Hui; Sun, Tingting; Shan, Nannan; Chen, Jianfeng; Xu, Lianbin; Yan, Yushan

    2014-01-01

    Three dimensionally ordered macro-/mesoporous (3DOM/m) Pt catalysts are fabricated by chemical reduction employing a dual-templating synthesis approach combining both colloidal crystal (opal) templating (hard-templating) and lyotropic liquid crystal templating (soft-templating) techniques. The macropore walls of the prepared 3DOM/m Pt exhibit a uniform mesoporous structure composed of polycrystalline Pt nanoparticles. Both the size of the mesopores and Pt nanocrystallites are in the range of 3-5 nm. The 3DOM/m Pt catalyst shows a larger electrochemically active surface area (ECSA), and higher catalytic activity as well as better poisoning tolerance for methanol oxidation reaction (MOR) than the commercial Pt black catalyst.

  5. Second-order perturbative corrections to the restricted active space configuration interaction with the hole and particle approach

    SciTech Connect

    Casanova, David

    2014-04-14

    Second-order corrections to the restricted active space configuration interaction (RASCI) with the hole and particle truncation of the excitation operator are developed. Theoretically, the computational cost of the implemented perturbative approach, abbreviated as RASCI(2), grows like its single reference counterpart in MP2. Two different forms of RASCI(2) have been explored, that is the generalized Davidson-Kapuy and the Epstein-Nesbet partitions of the Hamiltonian. The preliminary results indicate that the use of energy level shift of a few tenths of a Hartree might systematically improve the accuracy of the RASCI(2) energies. The method has been tested in the computation of the ground state energy profiles along the dissociation of the hydrogen fluoride and N{sub 2} molecules, the computation of correlation energy in the G2/97 molecular test set, and in the computation of excitation energies to low-lying states in small organic molecules.

  6. Recovery of Graded Response Model Parameters: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kieftenbeld, Vincent; Natesan, Prathiba

    2012-01-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable a fully Bayesian approach to parameter estimation of item response models. In this simulation study, the authors compared the recovery of graded response model parameters using marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Gibbs sampling (MCMC) under various latent trait distributions, test lengths, and…

  7. Preserving spatial linear correlations between neighboring stations in simulating daily precipitation using extended Markov models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ababaei, Behnam; Sohrabi, Teymour; Mirzaei, Farhad

    2014-10-01

    Most stochastic weather generators have their focus on precipitation because it is the most important variable affecting environmental processes. One of the methods to reproduce the precipitation occurrence time series is to use a Markov process. But, in addition to the simulation of short-term autocorrelations in one station, it is sometimes important to preserve the spatial linear correlations (SLC) between neighboring stations as well. In this research, an extension of one-site Markov models was proposed to preserve the SLC between neighboring stations. Qazvin station was utilized as the reference station and Takestan (TK), Magsal, Nirougah, and Taleghan stations were used as the target stations. The performances of different models were assessed in relation to the simulation of dry and wet spells and short-term dependencies in precipitation time series. The results revealed that in TK station, a Markov model with a first-order spatial model could be selected as the best model, while in the other stations, a model with the order of two or three could be selected. The selected (i.e., best) models were assessed in relation to preserving the SLC between neighboring stations. The results depicted that these models were very capable in preserving the SLC between the reference station and any of the target stations. But, their performances were weaker when the SLC between the other stations were compared. In order to resolve this issue, spatially correlated random numbers were utilized instead of independent random numbers while generating synthetic time series using the Markov models. Although this method slightly reduced the model performances in relation to dry and wet spells and short-term dependencies, the improvements related to the simulation of the SLC between the other stations were substantial.

  8. Multidimensional Latent Markov Models in a Developmental Study of Inhibitory Control and Attentional Flexibility in Early Childhood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bartolucci, Francesco; Solis-Trapala, Ivonne L.

    2010-01-01

    We demonstrate the use of a multidimensional extension of the latent Markov model to analyse data from studies with repeated binary responses in developmental psychology. In particular, we consider an experiment based on a battery of tests which was administered to pre-school children, at three time periods, in order to measure their inhibitory…

  9. Markov and non-Markov processes in complex systems by the dynamical information entropy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yulmetyev, R. M.; Gafarov, F. M.

    1999-12-01

    We consider the Markov and non-Markov processes in complex systems by the dynamical information Shannon entropy (DISE) method. The influence and important role of the two mutually dependent channels of entropy alternation (creation or generation of correlation) and anti-correlation (destroying or annihilation of correlation) have been discussed. The developed method has been used for the analysis of the complex systems of various natures: slow neutron scattering in liquid cesium, psychology (short-time numeral and pattern human memory and effect of stress on the dynamical taping-test), random dynamics of RR-intervals in human ECG (problem of diagnosis of various disease of the human cardio-vascular systems), chaotic dynamics of the parameters of financial markets and ecological systems.

  10. Defect Detection Using Hidden Markov Random Fields

    SciTech Connect

    Dogandzic, Aleksandar; Eua-anant, Nawanat; Zhang Benhong

    2005-04-09

    We derive an approximate maximum a posteriori (MAP) method for detecting NDE defect signals using hidden Markov random fields (HMRFs). In the proposed HMRF framework, a set of spatially distributed NDE measurements is assumed to form a noisy realization of an underlying random field that has a simple structure with Markovian dependence. Here, the random field describes the defect signals to be estimated or detected. The HMRF models incorporate measurement locations into the statistical analysis, which is important in scenarios where the same defect affects measurements at multiple locations. We also discuss initialization of the proposed HMRF detector and apply to simulated eddy-current data and experimental ultrasonic C-scan data from an inspection of a cylindrical Ti 6-4 billet.

  11. SHARP ENTRYWISE PERTURBATION BOUNDS FOR MARKOV CHAINS

    PubMed Central

    THIEDE, ERIK; VAN KOTEN, BRIAN; WEARE, JONATHAN

    2015-01-01

    For many Markov chains of practical interest, the invariant distribution is extremely sensitive to perturbations of some entries of the transition matrix, but insensitive to others; we give an example of such a chain, motivated by a problem in computational statistical physics. We have derived perturbation bounds on the relative error of the invariant distribution that reveal these variations in sensitivity. Our bounds are sharp, we do not impose any structural assumptions on the transition matrix or on the perturbation, and computing the bounds has the same complexity as computing the invariant distribution or computing other bounds in the literature. Moreover, our bounds have a simple interpretation in terms of hitting times, which can be used to draw intuitive but rigorous conclusions about the sensitivity of a chain to various types of perturbations. PMID:26491218

  12. Estimation and uncertainty of reversible Markov models.

    PubMed

    Trendelkamp-Schroer, Benjamin; Wu, Hao; Paul, Fabian; Noé, Frank

    2015-11-01

    Reversibility is a key concept in Markov models and master-equation models of molecular kinetics. The analysis and interpretation of the transition matrix encoding the kinetic properties of the model rely heavily on the reversibility property. The estimation of a reversible transition matrix from simulation data is, therefore, crucial to the successful application of the previously developed theory. In this work, we discuss methods for the maximum likelihood estimation of transition matrices from finite simulation data and present a new algorithm for the estimation if reversibility with respect to a given stationary vector is desired. We also develop new methods for the Bayesian posterior inference of reversible transition matrices with and without given stationary vector taking into account the need for a suitable prior distribution preserving the meta-stable features of the observed process during posterior inference. All algorithms here are implemented in the PyEMMA software--http://pyemma.org--as of version 2.0. PMID:26547152

  13. Forest Pest Occurrence Predictionca-Markov Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Fangyi; Zhang, Xiaoli; Chen, Xiaoyan

    Since the spatial pattern of forest pest occurrence is determined by biological characteristics and habitat conditions, this paper introduced construction of a cellular automaton model combined with Markov model to predicate the forest pest occurrence. Rules of the model includes the cell states rules, neighborhood rules and transition rules which are defined according to the factors from stand conditions, stand structures, climate and the influence of the factors on the state conversion. Coding for the model is also part of the implementations of the model. The participants were designed including attributes and operations of participants expressed with a UML diagram. Finally, the scale issues on forest pest occurrence prediction, of which the core are the prediction of element size and time interval, are partly discussed in this paper.

  14. Markov state models and molecular alchemy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schütte, Christof; Nielsen, Adam; Weber, Marcus

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, Markov state models (MSMs) have attracted a considerable amount of attention with regard to modelling conformation changes and associated function of biomolecular systems. They have been used successfully, e.g. for peptides including time-resolved spectroscopic experiments, protein function and protein folding , DNA and RNA, and ligand-receptor interaction in drug design and more complicated multivalent scenarios. In this article, a novel reweighting scheme is introduced that allows to construct an MSM for certain molecular system out of an MSM for a similar system. This permits studying how molecular properties on long timescales differ between similar molecular systems without performing full molecular dynamics simulations for each system under consideration. The performance of the reweighting scheme is illustrated for simple test cases, including one where the main wells of the respective energy landscapes are located differently and an alchemical transformation of butane to pentane where the dimension of the state space is changed.

  15. Estimation and uncertainty of reversible Markov models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trendelkamp-Schroer, Benjamin; Wu, Hao; Paul, Fabian; Noé, Frank

    2015-11-01

    Reversibility is a key concept in Markov models and master-equation models of molecular kinetics. The analysis and interpretation of the transition matrix encoding the kinetic properties of the model rely heavily on the reversibility property. The estimation of a reversible transition matrix from simulation data is, therefore, crucial to the successful application of the previously developed theory. In this work, we discuss methods for the maximum likelihood estimation of transition matrices from finite simulation data and present a new algorithm for the estimation if reversibility with respect to a given stationary vector is desired. We also develop new methods for the Bayesian posterior inference of reversible transition matrices with and without given stationary vector taking into account the need for a suitable prior distribution preserving the meta-stable features of the observed process during posterior inference. All algorithms here are implemented in the PyEMMA software — http://pyemma.org — as of version 2.0.

  16. Transition-Independent Decentralized Markov Decision Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Becker, Raphen; Silberstein, Shlomo; Lesser, Victor; Goldman, Claudia V.; Morris, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    There has been substantial progress with formal models for sequential decision making by individual agents using the Markov decision process (MDP). However, similar treatment of multi-agent systems is lacking. A recent complexity result, showing that solving decentralized MDPs is NEXP-hard, provides a partial explanation. To overcome this complexity barrier, we identify a general class of transition-independent decentralized MDPs that is widely applicable. The class consists of independent collaborating agents that are tied up by a global reward function that depends on both of their histories. We present a novel algorithm for solving this class of problems and examine its properties. The result is the first effective technique to solve optimally a class of decentralized MDPs. This lays the foundation for further work in this area on both exact and approximate solutions.

  17. Efficient Learning of Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Models for Disease Progression

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Yu-Ying; Li, Shuang; Li, Fuxin; Song, Le; Rehg, James M.

    2016-01-01

    The Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Model (CT-HMM) is an attractive approach to modeling disease progression due to its ability to describe noisy observations arriving irregularly in time. However, the lack of an efficient parameter learning algorithm for CT-HMM restricts its use to very small models or requires unrealistic constraints on the state transitions. In this paper, we present the first complete characterization of efficient EM-based learning methods for CT-HMM models. We demonstrate that the learning problem consists of two challenges: the estimation of posterior state probabilities and the computation of end-state conditioned statistics. We solve the first challenge by reformulating the estimation problem in terms of an equivalent discrete time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model. The second challenge is addressed by adapting three approaches from the continuous time Markov chain literature to the CT-HMM domain. We demonstrate the use of CT-HMMs with more than 100 states to visualize and predict disease progression using a glaucoma dataset and an Alzheimer’s disease dataset. PMID:27019571

  18. Hierarchical modeling for reliability analysis using Markov models. B.S./M.S. Thesis - MIT

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fagundo, Arturo

    1994-01-01

    Markov models represent an extremely attractive tool for the reliability analysis of many systems. However, Markov model state space grows exponentially with the number of components in a given system. Thus, for very large systems Markov modeling techniques alone become intractable in both memory and CPU time. Often a particular subsystem can be found within some larger system where the dependence of the larger system on the subsystem is of a particularly simple form. This simple dependence can be used to decompose such a system into one or more subsystems. A hierarchical technique is presented which can be used to evaluate these subsystems in such a way that their reliabilities can be combined to obtain the reliability for the full system. This hierarchical approach is unique in that it allows the subsystem model to pass multiple aggregate state information to the higher level model, allowing more general systems to be evaluated. Guidelines are developed to assist in the system decomposition. An appropriate method for determining subsystem reliability is also developed. This method gives rise to some interesting numerical issues. Numerical error due to roundoff and integration are discussed at length. Once a decomposition is chosen, the remaining analysis is straightforward but tedious. However, an approach is developed for simplifying the recombination of subsystem reliabilities. Finally, a real world system is used to illustrate the use of this technique in a more practical context.

  19. Synthesis of cervical tissue second harmonic generation images using Markov random field modeling.

    PubMed

    Yousefi, S; Kehtarnavaz, N; Gholipour, A

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a statistical image modeling approach based on Markov random field to synthesize cervical tissue second harmonic generation (SHG) images. Binary images representing fiber and pore areas of the cervix tissue are first obtained from SHG images using an image processing pipeline consisting of noise removal, contrast enhancement and optimal thresholding. These binary images are modeled using a Markov random field whose parameters are estimated via the least squares method. The parameters are then used to synthesize fiber and pore areas of cervical tissue in the form of binary images. The effectiveness of the synthesis is demonstrated by reporting the classification outcome for two classes of cervical SHG images collected from mice at two different stages of normal pregnancy. The developed synthesis allows generation of realistic fiber and pore area binary images for cervical tissue studies.

  20. Markov chain Monte Carlo segregation and linkage analysis for oligogenic models.

    PubMed Central

    Heath, S C

    1997-01-01

    A new method for segregation and linkage analysis, with pedigree data, is described. Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to implement a sampling scheme in which the Markov chain can jump between parameter subspaces corresponding to models with different numbers of quantitative-trait loci (QTL's). Joint estimation of QTL number, position, and effects is possible, avoiding the problems that can arise from misspecification of the number of QTL's in a linkage analysis. The method is illustrated by use of a data set simulated for the 9th Genetic Analysis Workshop; this data set had several oligogenic traits, generated by use of a 1,497-member pedigree. The mixing characteristics of the method appear to be good, and the method correctly recovers the simulated model from the test data set. The approach appears to have great potential both for robust linkage analysis and for the answering of more general questions regarding the genetic control of complex traits. PMID:9326339

  1. Differential evolution Markov chain with snooker updater and fewer chains

    SciTech Connect

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

    2008-01-01

    Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DE-MC) is an adaptive MCMC algorithm, in which multiple chains are run in parallel. Standard DE-MC requires at least N=2d chains to be run in parallel, where d is the dimensionality of the posterior. This paper extends DE-MC with a snooker updater and shows by simulation and real examples that DE-MC can work for d up to 50--100 with fewer parallel chains (e.g. N=3) by exploiting information from their past by generating jumps from differences of pairs of past states. This approach extends the practical applicability of DE-MC and is shown to be about 5--26 times more efficient than the optimal Normal random walk Metropolis sampler for the 97.5% point of a variable from a 25--50 dimensional Student T{sub 3} distribution. In a nonlinear mixed effects model example the approach outperformed a block-updater geared to the specific features of the model.

  2. Efficient inference of hidden Markov models from large observation sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Priest, Benjamin W.; Cybenko, George

    2016-05-01

    The hidden Markov model (HMM) is widely used to model time series data. However, the conventional Baum- Welch algorithm is known to perform poorly when applied to long observation sequences. The literature contains several alternatives that seek to improve the memory or time complexity of the algorithm. However, for an HMM with N states and an observation sequence of length T, these alternatives require at best O(N) space and O(N2T) time. Given the preponderance of applications that increasingly deal with massive amounts of data, an alternative whose time is O(T)+poly(N) is desired. Recent research presents an alternative to the Baum-Welch algorithm that relies on nonnegative matrix factorization. This document examines the space complexity of this alternative approach and proposes further optimizations using approaches adopted from the matrix sketching literature. The result is a streaming algorithm whose space complexity is constant and time complexity is linear with respect to the size of the observation sequence. The paper also presents a batch algorithm that allow for even further improved space complexity at the expense of an additional pass over the observation sequence.

  3. An optimal control approach to probabilistic Boolean networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Qiuli

    2012-12-01

    External control of some genes in a genetic regulatory network is useful for avoiding undesirable states associated with some diseases. For this purpose, a number of stochastic optimal control approaches have been proposed. Probabilistic Boolean networks (PBNs) as powerful tools for modeling gene regulatory systems have attracted considerable attention in systems biology. In this paper, we deal with a problem of optimal intervention in a PBN with the help of the theory of discrete time Markov decision process. Specifically, we first formulate a control model for a PBN as a first passage model for discrete time Markov decision processes and then find, using a value iteration algorithm, optimal effective treatments with the minimal expected first passage time over the space of all possible treatments. In order to demonstrate the feasibility of our approach, an example is also displayed.

  4. Specification test for Markov models with measurement errors*

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Seonjin; Zhao, Zhibiao

    2014-01-01

    Most existing works on specification testing assume that we have direct observations from the model of interest. We study specification testing for Markov models based on contaminated observations. The evolving model dynamics of the unobservable Markov chain is implicitly coded into the conditional distribution of the observed process. To test whether the underlying Markov chain follows a parametric model, we propose measuring the deviation between nonparametric and parametric estimates of conditional regression functions of the observed process. Specifically, we construct a nonparametric simultaneous confidence band for conditional regression functions and check whether the parametric estimate is contained within the band. PMID:25346552

  5. Analysis and comparison of CVS-ADC approaches up to third order for the calculation of core-excited states

    SciTech Connect

    Wenzel, Jan Holzer, Andre; Wormit, Michael; Dreuw, Andreas

    2015-06-07

    The extended second order algebraic-diagrammatic construction (ADC(2)-x) scheme for the polarization operator in combination with core-valence separation (CVS) approximation is well known to be a powerful quantum chemical method for the calculation of core-excited states and the description of X-ray absorption spectra. For the first time, the implementation and results of the third order approach CVS-ADC(3) are reported. Therefore, the CVS approximation has been applied to the ADC(3) working equations and the resulting terms have been implemented efficiently in the adcman program. By treating the α and β spins separately from each other, the unrestricted variant CVS-UADC(3) for the treatment of open-shell systems has been implemented as well. The performance and accuracy of the CVS-ADC(3) method are demonstrated with respect to a set of small and middle-sized organic molecules. Therefore, the results obtained at the CVS-ADC(3) level are compared with CVS-ADC(2)-x values as well as experimental data by calculating complete basis set limits. The influence of basis sets is further investigated by employing a large set of different basis sets. Besides the accuracy of core-excitation energies and oscillator strengths, the importance of cartesian basis functions and the treatment of orbital relaxation effects are analyzed in this work as well as computational timings. It turns out that at the CVS-ADC(3) level, the results are not further improved compared to CVS-ADC(2)-x and experimental data, because the fortuitous error compensation inherent in the CVS-ADC(2)-x approach is broken. While CVS-ADC(3) overestimates the core excitation energies on average by 0.61% ± 0.31%, CVS-ADC(2)-x provides an averaged underestimation of −0.22% ± 0.12%. Eventually, the best agreement with experiments can be achieved using the CVS-ADC(2)-x method in combination with a diffuse cartesian basis set at least at the triple-ζ level.

  6. Gene prediction in eukaryotes with a generalized hidden Markov model that uses hints from external sources

    PubMed Central

    Stanke, Mario; Schöffmann, Oliver; Morgenstern, Burkhard; Waack, Stephan

    2006-01-01

    Background In order to improve gene prediction, extrinsic evidence on the gene structure can be collected from various sources of information such as genome-genome comparisons and EST and protein alignments. However, such evidence is often incomplete and usually uncertain. The extrinsic evidence is usually not sufficient to recover the complete gene structure of all genes completely and the available evidence is often unreliable. Therefore extrinsic evidence is most valuable when it is balanced with sequence-intrinsic evidence. Results We present a fairly general method for integration of external information. Our method is based on the evaluation of hints to potentially protein-coding regions by means of a Generalized Hidden Markov Model (GHMM) that takes both intrinsic and extrinsic information into account. We used this method to extend the ab initio gene prediction program AUGUSTUS to a versatile tool that we call AUGUSTUS+. In this study, we focus on hints derived from matches to an EST or protein database, but our approach can be used to include arbitrary user-defined hints. Our method is only moderately effected by the length of a database match. Further, it exploits the information that can be derived from the absence of such matches. As a special case, AUGUSTUS+ can predict genes under user-defined constraints, e.g. if the positions of certain exons are known. With hints from EST and protein databases, our new approach was able to predict 89% of the exons in human chromosome 22 correctly. Conclusion Sensitive probabilistic modeling of extrinsic evidence such as sequence database matches can increase gene prediction accuracy. When a match of a sequence interval to an EST or protein sequence is used it should be treated as compound information rather than as information about individual positions. PMID:16469098

  7. Using the topological derivative for initializing a Markov-chain Monte Carlo reconstruction in fluorescence tomography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freiberger, Manuel; Laurain, Antoine; Hintermüller, Michael; Köstinger, Alice; Scharfetter, Hermann

    2011-07-01

    Fluorescence tomography aims at the reconstruction of the concentration and life-time of fluorescent inclusions from boundary measurements of light emitted. The underlying ill-posed problem is often solved with gradient descent of Gauss-Newton methods, for example. Unfortunately, these approaches don't allow to assess the quality of the reconstruction (e.g. the variance and covariance of the parameters) and also require the tuning of regularization parameters. We intend to mitigate this drawback by the application of topological derivatives and Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods for solving the inverse problem. This submission focuses on the topological derivative, which is used for the initialization of the MCMC code. The basic idea is to probe every location inside the domain with an infinitely small fluorescent ball and to estimate the effect of such a perturbation on the residual, which is the difference of the theoretically predicted data to the true measurement. Obviously, the reconstructed inclusions should be placed at locations for which the topological derivative is significantly negative, i.e. where the residual decreases. Previous results show that usual first-order approximations deteriorates for probe inclusions close to the boundary. This seems to be a particular feature of certain inverse problems such as fluorescence tomography or electrical impedance tomography. Fortunately this flaw may be corrected using a few higher-order terms which may be explicitly determined With this extension the topological derivative can be utilized as a one-step method for the determination of the number of inclusions and their approximate locations. This outcome is used as initialization for the MCMC algorithm.

  8. Synchronization of memristor-based recurrent neural networks with two delay components based on second-order reciprocally convex approach.

    PubMed

    Chandrasekar, A; Rakkiyappan, R; Cao, Jinde; Lakshmanan, S

    2014-09-01

    We extend the notion of Synchronization of memristor-based recurrent neural networks with two delay components based on second-order reciprocally convex approach. Some sufficient conditions are obtained to guarantee the synchronization of the memristor-based recurrent neural networks via delay-dependent output feedback controller in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). The activation functions are assumed to be of further common descriptions, which take a broad view and recover many of those existing methods. A Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional (LKF) with triple-integral terms is addressed in this paper to condense conservatism in the synchronization of systems with additive time-varying delays. Jensen's inequality is applied in partitioning the double integral terms in the derivation of LMIs and then a new kind of linear combination of positive functions weighted by the inverses of squared convex parameters has emerged. Meanwhile, this paper puts forward a well-organized method to manipulate such a combination by extending the lower bound lemma. The obtained conditions not only have less conservatism but also less decision variables than existing results. Finally, numerical results and its simulations are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed memristor-based synchronization control scheme.

  9. Universal recovery map for approximate Markov chains

    PubMed Central

    Sutter, David; Fawzi, Omar; Renner, Renato

    2016-01-01

    A central question in quantum information theory is to determine how well lost information can be reconstructed. Crucially, the corresponding recovery operation should perform well without knowing the information to be reconstructed. In this work, we show that the quantum conditional mutual information measures the performance of such recovery operations. More precisely, we prove that the conditional mutual information I(A:C|B) of a tripartite quantum state ρABC can be bounded from below by its distance to the closest recovered state RB→BC(ρAB), where the C-part is reconstructed from the B-part only and the recovery map RB→BC merely depends on ρBC. One particular application of this result implies the equivalence between two different approaches to define topological order in quantum systems. PMID:27118889

  10. Forecasting Tehran stock exchange volatility; Markov switching GARCH approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abounoori, Esmaiel; Elmi, Zahra (Mila); Nademi, Younes

    2016-03-01

    This paper evaluates several GARCH models regarding their ability to forecast volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). These include GARCH models with both Gaussian and fat-tailed residual conditional distribution, concerning their ability to describe and forecast volatility from 1-day to 22-day horizon. Results indicate that AR(2)-MRSGARCH-GED model outperforms other models at one-day horizon. Also, the AR(2)-MRSGARCH-GED as well as AR(2)-MRSGARCH-t models outperform other models at 5-day horizon. In 10 day horizon, three models of AR(2)-MRSGARCH outperform other models. Concerning 22 day forecast horizon, results indicate no differences between MRSGARCH models with that of standard GARCH models. Regarding Risk management out-of-sample evaluation (95% VaR), a few models seem to provide reasonable and accurate VaR estimates at 1-day horizon, with a coverage rate close to the nominal level. According to the risk management loss functions, there is not a uniformly most accurate model.

  11. Ensemble hidden Markov models with application to landmine detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamdi, Anis; Frigui, Hichem

    2015-12-01

    We introduce an ensemble learning method for temporal data that uses a mixture of hidden Markov models (HMM). We hypothesize that the data are generated by K models, each of which reflects a particular trend in the data. The proposed approach, called ensemble HMM (eHMM), is based on clustering within the log-likelihood space and has two main steps. First, one HMM is fit to each of the N individual training sequences. For each fitted model, we evaluate the log-likelihood of each sequence. This results in an N-by-N log-likelihood distance matrix that will be partitioned into K groups using a relational clustering algorithm. In the second step, we learn the parameters of one HMM per cluster. We propose using and optimizing various training approaches for the different K groups depending on their size and homogeneity. In particular, we investigate the maximum likelihood (ML), the minimum classification error (MCE), and the variational Bayesian (VB) training approaches. Finally, to test a new sequence, its likelihood is computed in all the models and a final confidence value is assigned by combining the models' outputs using an artificial neural network. We propose both discrete and continuous versions of the eHMM. Our approach was evaluated on a real-world application for landmine detection using ground-penetrating radar (GPR). Results show that both the continuous and discrete eHMM can identify meaningful and coherent HMM mixture components that describe different properties of the data. Each HMM mixture component models a group of data that share common attributes. These attributes are reflected in the mixture model's parameters. The results indicate that the proposed method outperforms the baseline HMM that uses one model for each class in the data.

  12. Time series segmentation with shifting means hidden markov models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kehagias, Ath.; Fortin, V.

    2006-08-01

    We present a new family of hidden Markov models and apply these to the segmentation of hydrological and environmental time series. The proposed hidden Markov models have a discrete state space and their structure is inspired from the shifting means models introduced by Chernoff and Zacks and by Salas and Boes. An estimation method inspired from the EM algorithm is proposed, and we show that it can accurately identify multiple change-points in a time series. We also show that the solution obtained using this algorithm can serve as a starting point for a Monte-Carlo Markov chain Bayesian estimation method, thus reducing the computing time needed for the Markov chain to converge to a stationary distribution.

  13. MODELING PAVEMENT DETERIORATION PROCESSES BY POISSON HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nam, Le Thanh; Kaito, Kiyoyuki; Kobayashi, Kiyoshi; Okizuka, Ryosuke

    In pavement management, it is important to estimate lifecycle cost, which is composed of the expenses for repairing local damages, including potholes, and repairing and rehabilitating the surface and base layers of pavements, including overlays. In this study, a model is produced under the assumption that the deterioration process of pavement is a complex one that includes local damages, which occur frequently, and the deterioration of the surface and base layers of pavement, which progresses slowly. The variation in pavement soundness is expressed by the Markov deterioration model and the Poisson hidden Markov deterioration model, in which the frequency of local damage depends on the distribution of pavement soundness, is formulated. In addition, the authors suggest a model estimation method using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, and attempt to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed Poisson hidden Markov deterioration model by studying concrete application cases.

  14. Bayesian and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for identifying nonlinear systems in the presence of uncertainty

    PubMed Central

    Green, P. L.; Worden, K.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, the authors outline the general principles behind an approach to Bayesian system identification and highlight the benefits of adopting a Bayesian framework when attempting to identify models of nonlinear dynamical systems in the presence of uncertainty. It is then described how, through a summary of some key algorithms, many of the potential difficulties associated with a Bayesian approach can be overcome through the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The paper concludes with a case study, where an MCMC algorithm is used to facilitate the Bayesian system identification of a nonlinear dynamical system from experimentally observed acceleration time histories. PMID:26303916

  15. Lossy cutset coding of bilevel images based on Markov random fields.

    PubMed

    Reyes, Matthew G; Neuhoff, David L; Pappas, Thrasyvoulos N

    2014-04-01

    An effective, low complexity method for lossy compression of scenic bilevel images, called lossy cutset coding, is proposed based on a Markov random field model. It operates by losslessly encoding pixels in a square grid of lines, which is a cutset with respect to a Markov random field model, and preserves key structural information, such as borders between black and white regions. Relying on the Markov random field model, the decoder takes a MAP approach to reconstructing the interior of each grid block from the pixels on its boundary, thereby creating a piecewise smooth image that is consistent with the encoded grid pixels. The MAP rule, which reduces to finding the block interiors with fewest black-white transitions, is directly implementable for the most commonly occurring block boundaries, thereby avoiding the need for brute force or iterative solutions. Experimental results demonstrate that the new method is computationally simple, outperforms the current lossy compression technique most suited to scenic bilevel images, and provides substantially lower rates than lossless techniques, e.g., JBIG, with little loss in perceived image quality.

  16. Markov Task Network: A Framework for Service Composition under Uncertainty in Cyber-Physical Systems

    PubMed Central

    Mohammed, Abdul-Wahid; Xu, Yang; Hu, Haixiao; Agyemang, Brighter

    2016-01-01

    In novel collaborative systems, cooperative entities collaborate services to achieve local and global objectives. With the growing pervasiveness of cyber-physical systems, however, such collaboration is hampered by differences in the operations of the cyber and physical objects, and the need for the dynamic formation of collaborative functionality given high-level system goals has become practical. In this paper, we propose a cross-layer automation and management model for cyber-physical systems. This models the dynamic formation of collaborative services pursuing laid-down system goals as an ontology-oriented hierarchical task network. Ontological intelligence provides the semantic technology of this model, and through semantic reasoning, primitive tasks can be dynamically composed from high-level system goals. In dealing with uncertainty, we further propose a novel bridge between hierarchical task networks and Markov logic networks, called the Markov task network. This leverages the efficient inference algorithms of Markov logic networks to reduce both computational and inferential loads in task decomposition. From the results of our experiments, high-precision service composition under uncertainty can be achieved using this approach. PMID:27657084

  17. Diffusion maps, clustering and fuzzy Markov modeling in peptide folding transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nedialkova, Lilia V.; Amat, Miguel A.; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.; Hummer, Gerhard

    2014-09-01

    Using the helix-coil transitions of alanine pentapeptide as an illustrative example, we demonstrate the use of diffusion maps in the analysis of molecular dynamics simulation trajectories. Diffusion maps and other nonlinear data-mining techniques provide powerful tools to visualize the distribution of structures in conformation space. The resulting low-dimensional representations help in partitioning conformation space, and in constructing Markov state models that capture the conformational dynamics. In an initial step, we use diffusion maps to reduce the dimensionality of the conformational dynamics of Ala5. The resulting pretreated data are then used in a clustering step. The identified clusters show excellent overlap with clusters obtained previously by using the backbone dihedral angles as input, with small—but nontrivial—differences reflecting torsional degrees of freedom ignored in the earlier approach. We then construct a Markov state model describing the conformational dynamics in terms of a discrete-time random walk between the clusters. We show that by combining fuzzy C-means clustering with a transition-based assignment of states, we can construct robust Markov state models. This state-assignment procedure suppresses short-time memory effects that result from the non-Markovianity of the dynamics projected onto the space of clusters. In a comparison with previous work, we demonstrate how manifold learning techniques may complement and enhance informed intuition commonly used to construct reduced descriptions of the dynamics in molecular conformation space.

  18. Diffusion maps, clustering and fuzzy Markov modeling in peptide folding transitions

    SciTech Connect

    Nedialkova, Lilia V.; Amat, Miguel A.; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G. E-mail: gerhard.hummer@biophys.mpg.de; Hummer, Gerhard E-mail: gerhard.hummer@biophys.mpg.de

    2014-09-21

    Using the helix-coil transitions of alanine pentapeptide as an illustrative example, we demonstrate the use of diffusion maps in the analysis of molecular dynamics simulation trajectories. Diffusion maps and other nonlinear data-mining techniques provide powerful tools to visualize the distribution of structures in conformation space. The resulting low-dimensional representations help in partitioning conformation space, and in constructing Markov state models that capture the conformational dynamics. In an initial step, we use diffusion maps to reduce the dimensionality of the conformational dynamics of Ala5. The resulting pretreated data are then used in a clustering step. The identified clusters show excellent overlap with clusters obtained previously by using the backbone dihedral angles as input, with small—but nontrivial—differences reflecting torsional degrees of freedom ignored in the earlier approach. We then construct a Markov state model describing the conformational dynamics in terms of a discrete-time random walk between the clusters. We show that by combining fuzzy C-means clustering with a transition-based assignment of states, we can construct robust Markov state models. This state-assignment procedure suppresses short-time memory effects that result from the non-Markovianity of the dynamics projected onto the space of clusters. In a comparison with previous work, we demonstrate how manifold learning techniques may complement and enhance informed intuition commonly used to construct reduced descriptions of the dynamics in molecular conformation space.

  19. NonMarkov Ito Processes with 1- state memory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2010-08-01

    A Markov process, by definition, cannot depend on any previous state other than the last observed state. An Ito process implies the Fokker-Planck and Kolmogorov backward time partial differential eqns. for transition densities, which in turn imply the Chapman-Kolmogorov eqn., but without requiring the Markov condition. We present a class of Ito process superficially resembling Markov processes, but with 1-state memory. In finance, such processes would obey the efficient market hypothesis up through the level of pair correlations. These stochastic processes have been mislabeled in recent literature as 'nonlinear Markov processes'. Inspired by Doob and Feller, who pointed out that the ChapmanKolmogorov eqn. is not restricted to Markov processes, we exhibit a Gaussian Ito transition density with 1-state memory in the drift coefficient that satisfies both of Kolmogorov's partial differential eqns. and also the Chapman-Kolmogorov eqn. In addition, we show that three of the examples from McKean's seminal 1966 paper are also nonMarkov Ito processes. Last, we show that the transition density of the generalized Black-Scholes type partial differential eqn. describes a martingale, and satisfies the ChapmanKolmogorov eqn. This leads to the shortest-known proof that the Green function of the Black-Scholes eqn. with variable diffusion coefficient provides the so-called martingale measure of option pricing.

  20. Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo forward projection for statistical analysis in epidemic modelling of human papillomavirus.

    PubMed

    Korostil, Igor A; Peters, Gareth W; Cornebise, Julien; Regan, David G

    2013-05-20

    A Bayesian statistical model and estimation methodology based on forward projection adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo is developed in order to perform the calibration of a high-dimensional nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations representing an epidemic model for human papillomavirus types 6 and 11 (HPV-6, HPV-11). The model is compartmental and involves stratification by age, gender and sexual-activity group. Developing this model and a means to calibrate it efficiently is relevant because HPV is a very multi-typed and common sexually transmitted infection with more than 100 types currently known. The two types studied in this paper, types 6 and 11, are causing about 90% of anogenital warts. We extend the development of a sexual mixing matrix on the basis of a formulation first suggested by Garnett and Anderson, frequently used to model sexually transmitted infections. In particular, we consider a stochastic mixing matrix framework that allows us to jointly estimate unknown attributes and parameters of the mixing matrix along with the parameters involved in the calibration of the HPV epidemic model. This matrix describes the sexual interactions between members of the population under study and relies on several quantities that are a priori unknown. The Bayesian model developed allows one to estimate jointly the HPV-6 and HPV-11 epidemic model parameters as well as unknown sexual mixing matrix parameters related to assortativity. Finally, we explore the ability of an extension to the class of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms to incorporate a forward projection strategy for the ordinary differential equation state trajectories. Efficient exploration of the Bayesian posterior distribution developed for the ordinary differential equation parameters provides a challenge for any Markov chain sampling methodology, hence the interest in adaptive Markov chain methods. We conclude with simulation studies on synthetic and recent actual data. PMID

  1. A Markov Random Field Groupwise Registration Framework for Face Recognition.

    PubMed

    Liao, Shu; Shen, Dinggang; Chung, Albert C S

    2014-04-01

    In this paper, we propose a new framework for tackling face recognition problem. The face recognition problem is formulated as groupwise deformable image registration and feature matching problem. The main contributions of the proposed method lie in the following aspects: (1) Each pixel in a facial image is represented by an anatomical signature obtained from its corresponding most salient scale local region determined by the survival exponential entropy (SEE) information theoretic measure. (2) Based on the anatomical signature calculated from each pixel, a novel Markov random field based groupwise registration framework is proposed to formulate the face recognition problem as a feature guided deformable image registration problem. The similarity between different facial images are measured on the nonlinear Riemannian manifold based on the deformable transformations. (3) The proposed method does not suffer from the generalizability problem which exists commonly in learning based algorithms. The proposed method has been extensively evaluated on four publicly available databases: FERET, CAS-PEAL-R1, FRGC ver 2.0, and the LFW. It is also compared with several state-of-the-art face recognition approaches, and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method consistently achieves the highest recognition rates among all the methods under comparison.

  2. A comparison of weighted ensemble and Markov state model methodologies.

    PubMed

    Feng, Haoyun; Costaouec, Ronan; Darve, Eric; Izaguirre, Jesús A

    2015-06-01

    Computation of reaction rates and elucidation of reaction mechanisms are two of the main goals of molecular dynamics (MD) and related simulation methods. Since it is time consuming to study reaction mechanisms over long time scales using brute force MD simulations, two ensemble methods, Markov State Models (MSMs) and Weighted Ensemble (WE), have been proposed to accelerate the procedure. Both approaches require clustering of microscopic configurations into networks of "macro-states" for different purposes. MSMs model a discretization of the original dynamics on the macro-states. Accuracy of the model significantly relies on the boundaries of macro-states. On the other hand, WE uses macro-states to formulate a resampling procedure that kills and splits MD simulations for achieving better efficiency of sampling. Comparing to MSMs, accuracy of WE rate predictions is less sensitive to the definition of macro-states. Rigorous numerical experiments using alanine dipeptide and penta-alanine support our analyses. It is shown that MSMs introduce significant biases in the computation of reaction rates, which depend on the boundaries of macro-states, and Accelerated Weighted Ensemble (AWE), a formulation of weighted ensemble that uses the notion of colors to compute fluxes, has reliable flux estimation on varying definitions of macro-states. Our results suggest that whereas MSMs provide a good idea of the metastable sets and visualization of overall dynamics, AWE provides reliable rate estimations requiring less efforts on defining macro-states on the high dimensional conformational space.

  3. A Markov Random Field Groupwise Registration Framework for Face Recognition

    PubMed Central

    Liao, Shu; Shen, Dinggang; Chung, Albert C.S.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new framework for tackling face recognition problem. The face recognition problem is formulated as groupwise deformable image registration and feature matching problem. The main contributions of the proposed method lie in the following aspects: (1) Each pixel in a facial image is represented by an anatomical signature obtained from its corresponding most salient scale local region determined by the survival exponential entropy (SEE) information theoretic measure. (2) Based on the anatomical signature calculated from each pixel, a novel Markov random field based groupwise registration framework is proposed to formulate the face recognition problem as a feature guided deformable image registration problem. The similarity between different facial images are measured on the nonlinear Riemannian manifold based on the deformable transformations. (3) The proposed method does not suffer from the generalizability problem which exists commonly in learning based algorithms. The proposed method has been extensively evaluated on four publicly available databases: FERET, CAS-PEAL-R1, FRGC ver 2.0, and the LFW. It is also compared with several state-of-the-art face recognition approaches, and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method consistently achieves the highest recognition rates among all the methods under comparison. PMID:25506109

  4. Optical character recognition of handwritten Arabic using hidden Markov models

    SciTech Connect

    Aulama, Mohannad M.; Natsheh, Asem M.; Abandah, Gheith A.; Olama, Mohammed M

    2011-01-01

    The problem of optical character recognition (OCR) of handwritten Arabic has not received a satisfactory solution yet. In this paper, an Arabic OCR algorithm is developed based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) combined with the Viterbi algorithm, which results in an improved and more robust recognition of characters at the sub-word level. Integrating the HMMs represents another step of the overall OCR trends being currently researched in the literature. The proposed approach exploits the structure of characters in the Arabic language in addition to their extracted features to achieve improved recognition rates. Useful statistical information of the Arabic language is initially extracted and then used to estimate the probabilistic parameters of the mathematical HMM. A new custom implementation of the HMM is developed in this study, where the transition matrix is built based on the collected large corpus, and the emission matrix is built based on the results obtained via the extracted character features. The recognition process is triggered using the Viterbi algorithm which employs the most probable sequence of sub-words. The model was implemented to recognize the sub-word unit of Arabic text raising the recognition rate from being linked to the worst recognition rate for any character to the overall structure of the Arabic language. Numerical results show that there is a potentially large recognition improvement by using the proposed algorithms.

  5. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods: an introductory example

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klauenberg, Katy; Elster, Clemens

    2016-02-01

    When the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and methods from its supplements are not applicable, the Bayesian approach may be a valid and welcome alternative. Evaluating the posterior distribution, estimates or uncertainties involved in Bayesian inferences often requires numerical methods to avoid high-dimensional integrations. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is such a method—powerful, flexible and widely applied. Here, a concise introduction is given, illustrated by a simple, typical example from metrology. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is the most basic and yet flexible MCMC method. Its underlying concepts are explained and the algorithm is given step by step. The few lines of software code required for its implementation invite interested readers to get started. Diagnostics to evaluate the performance and common algorithmic choices are illustrated to calibrate the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for efficiency. Routine application of MCMC algorithms may be hindered currently by the difficulty to assess the convergence of MCMC output and thus to assure the validity of results. An example points to the importance of convergence and initiates discussion about advantages as well as areas of research. Available software tools are mentioned throughout.

  6. Bayesian inference for Markov jump processes with informative observations.

    PubMed

    Golightly, Andrew; Wilkinson, Darren J

    2015-04-01

    In this paper we consider the problem of parameter inference for Markov jump process (MJP) representations of stochastic kinetic models. Since transition probabilities are intractable for most processes of interest yet forward simulation is straightforward, Bayesian inference typically proceeds through computationally intensive methods such as (particle) MCMC. Such methods ostensibly require the ability to simulate trajectories from the conditioned jump process. When observations are highly informative, use of the forward simulator is likely to be inefficient and may even preclude an exact (simulation based) analysis. We therefore propose three methods for improving the efficiency of simulating conditioned jump processes. A conditioned hazard is derived based on an approximation to the jump process, and used to generate end-point conditioned trajectories for use inside an importance sampling algorithm. We also adapt a recently proposed sequential Monte Carlo scheme to our problem. Essentially, trajectories are reweighted at a set of intermediate time points, with more weight assigned to trajectories that are consistent with the next observation. We consider two implementations of this approach, based on two continuous approximations of the MJP. We compare these constructs for a simple tractable jump process before using them to perform inference for a Lotka-Volterra system. The best performing construct is used to infer the parameters governing a simple model of motility regulation in Bacillus subtilis. PMID:25720091

  7. Asteroid mass estimation using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siltala, Lauri; Granvik, Mikael

    2016-10-01

    Estimates for asteroid masses are based on their gravitational perturbations on the orbits of other objects such as Mars, spacecraft, or other asteroids and/or their satellites. In the case of asteroid-asteroid perturbations, this leads to a 13-dimensional inverse problem where the aim is to derive the mass of the perturbing asteroid and six orbital elements for both the perturbing asteroid and the test asteroid using astrometric observations. We have developed and implemented three different mass estimation algorithms utilizing asteroid-asteroid perturbations into the OpenOrb asteroid-orbit-computation software: the very rough 'marching' approximation, in which the asteroid orbits are fixed at a given epoch, reducing the problem to a one-dimensional estimation of the mass, an implementation of the Nelder-Mead simplex method, and most significantly, a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. We will introduce each of these algorithms with particular focus on the MCMC algorithm, and present example results for both synthetic and real data. Our results agree with the published mass estimates, but suggest that the published uncertainties may be misleading as a consequence of using linearized mass-estimation methods. Finally, we discuss remaining challenges with the algorithms as well as future plans, particularly in connection with ESA's Gaia mission.

  8. A comparison of weighted ensemble and Markov state model methodologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Haoyun; Costaouec, Ronan; Darve, Eric; Izaguirre, Jesús A.

    2015-06-01

    Computation of reaction rates and elucidation of reaction mechanisms are two of the main goals of molecular dynamics (MD) and related simulation methods. Since it is time consuming to study reaction mechanisms over long time scales using brute force MD simulations, two ensemble methods, Markov State Models (MSMs) and Weighted Ensemble (WE), have been proposed to accelerate the procedure. Both approaches require clustering of microscopic configurations into networks of "macro-states" for different purposes. MSMs model a discretization of the original dynamics on the macro-states. Accuracy of the model significantly relies on the boundaries of macro-states. On the other hand, WE uses macro-states to formulate a resampling procedure that kills and splits MD simulations for achieving better efficiency of sampling. Comparing to MSMs, accuracy of WE rate predictions is less sensitive to the definition of macro-states. Rigorous numerical experiments using alanine dipeptide and penta-alanine support our analyses. It is shown that MSMs introduce significant biases in the computation of reaction rates, which depend on the boundaries of macro-states, and Accelerated Weighted Ensemble (AWE), a formulation of weighted ensemble that uses the notion of colors to compute fluxes, has reliable flux estimation on varying definitions of macro-states. Our results suggest that whereas MSMs provide a good idea of the metastable sets and visualization of overall dynamics, AWE provides reliable rate estimations requiring less efforts on defining macro-states on the high dimensional conformational space.

  9. Optimized Markov state models for metastable systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guarnera, Enrico; Vanden-Eijnden, Eric

    2016-07-01

    A method is proposed to identify target states that optimize a metastability index amongst a set of trial states and use these target states as milestones (or core sets) to build Markov State Models (MSMs). If the optimized metastability index is small, this automatically guarantees the accuracy of the MSM, in the sense that the transitions between the target milestones is indeed approximately Markovian. The method is simple to implement and use, it does not require that the dynamics on the trial milestones be Markovian, and it also offers the possibility to partition the system's state-space by assigning every trial milestone to the target milestones it is most likely to visit next and to identify transition state regions. Here the method is tested on the Gly-Ala-Gly peptide, where it is shown to correctly identify the expected metastable states in the dihedral angle space of the molecule without a priori information about these states. It is also applied to analyze the folding landscape of the Beta3s mini-protein, where it is shown to identify the folded basin as a connecting hub between an helix-rich region, which is entropically stabilized, and a beta-rich region, which is energetically stabilized and acts as a kinetic trap.

  10. Hidden Markov models in automatic speech recognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wrzoskowicz, Adam

    1993-11-01

    This article describes a method for constructing an automatic speech recognition system based on hidden Markov models (HMMs). The author discusses the basic concepts of HMM theory and the application of these models to the analysis and recognition of speech signals. The author provides algorithms which make it possible to train the ASR system and recognize signals on the basis of distinct stochastic models of selected speech sound classes. The author describes the specific components of the system and the procedures used to model and recognize speech. The author discusses problems associated with the choice of optimal signal detection and parameterization characteristics and their effect on the performance of the system. The author presents different options for the choice of speech signal segments and their consequences for the ASR process. The author gives special attention to the use of lexical, syntactic, and semantic information for the purpose of improving the quality and efficiency of the system. The author also describes an ASR system developed by the Speech Acoustics Laboratory of the IBPT PAS. The author discusses the results of experiments on the effect of noise on the performance of the ASR system and describes methods of constructing HMM's designed to operate in a noisy environment. The author also describes a language for human-robot communications which was defined as a complex multilevel network from an HMM model of speech sounds geared towards Polish inflections. The author also added mandatory lexical and syntactic rules to the system for its communications vocabulary.

  11. Systolic Architectures For Hidden Markov Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, J. N.; Vlontzos, J. A.; Kung, S. Y.

    1988-10-01

    This paper proposes an unidirectional ring systolic architecture for implementing the hidden Markov models (HMMs). This array architecture maximizes the strength of VLSI in terms of intensive and pipelined computing and yet circumvents the limitation on communication. Both the scoring and learning phases of an HMM are formulated as a consecutive matrix-vector multiplication problem, which can be executed in a fully pipelined fashion (100% utilization effi-ciency) by using an unidirectional ring systolic architecture. By appropriately scheduling the algorithm, which combines both the operations of the backward evaluation procedure and reestimation algorithm at the same time, we can use this systolic HMM in a most efficient manner. The systolic HMM can also be easily adapted to the left-to-right HMM by using bidirectional semi-global links with significant time saving. This architecture can also incorporate the scaling scheme with little extra effort in the computations of forward and backward evaluation variables to prevent the frequently encountered mathematical undertow problems. We also discuss a possible implementation of this proposed architecture using Inmos transputer (T-800) as the building block.

  12. Markov source model for printed music decoding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kopec, Gary E.; Chou, Philip A.; Maltz, David A.

    1995-03-01

    This paper describes a Markov source model for a simple subset of printed music notation. The model is based on the Adobe Sonata music symbol set and a message language of our own design. Chord imaging is the most complex part of the model. Much of the complexity follows from a rule of music typography that requires the noteheads for adjacent pitches to be placed on opposite sides of the chord stem. This rule leads to a proliferation of cases for other typographic details such as dot placement. We describe the language of message strings accepted by the model and discuss some of the imaging issues associated with various aspects of the message language. We also point out some aspects of music notation that appear problematic for a finite-state representation. Development of the model was greatly facilitated by the duality between image synthesis and image decoding. Although our ultimate objective was a music image model for use in decoding, most of the development proceeded by using the evolving model for image synthesis, since it is computationally far less costly to image a message than to decode an image.

  13. Spatiotemporal pattern recognition using hidden Markov models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fielding, Kenneth H.; Ruck, Dennis W.; Rogers, Steven K.; Welsh, Byron M.; Oxley, Mark E.

    1993-10-01

    A spatio-temporal method for identifying objects contained in an image sequence is presented. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) technique is used as the classification algorithm, making classification decisions based on a spatio-temporal sequence of observed object features. A five class problem is considered. Classification accuracies of 100% and 99.7% are obtained for sequences of images generated over two separate regions of viewing positions. HMMs trained on image sequences of the objects moving in opposite directions showed a 98.1% successful classification rate by class and direction of movement. The HMM technique proved robust to image corruption with additive correlated noise and had a higher accuracy than a single look nearest neighbor method. A real image sequence of one of the objects used was successfully recognized with the HMMs trained on synthetic data. This study shows the temporal changes that observed feature vectors undergo due to object motion hold information that can yield superior classification accuracy when compared to single frame techniques.

  14. Markov branching in the vertex splitting model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Örn Stefánsson, Sigurdur

    2012-04-01

    We study a special case of the vertex splitting model which is a recent model of randomly growing trees. For any finite maximum vertex degree D, we find a one parameter model, with parameter \\alpha \\in [0,1] which has a so-called Markov branching property. When D=\\infty we find a two parameter model with an additional parameter \\gamma \\in [0,1] which also has this feature. In the case D = 3, the model bears resemblance to Ford's α-model of phylogenetic trees and when D=\\infty it is similar to its generalization, the αγ-model. For α = 0, the model reduces to the well known model of preferential attachment. In the case α > 0, we prove convergence of the finite volume probability measures, generated by the growth rules, to a measure on infinite trees which is concentrated on the set of trees with a single spine. We show that the annealed Hausdorff dimension with respect to the infinite volume measure is 1/α. When γ = 0 the model reduces to a model of growing caterpillar graphs in which case we prove that the Hausdorff dimension is almost surely 1/α and that the spectral dimension is almost surely 2/(1 + α). We comment briefly on the distribution of vertex degrees and correlations between degrees of neighbouring vertices.

  15. Leukocytes segmentation using Markov random fields.

    PubMed

    Reta, C; Gonzalez, J A; Diaz, R; Guichard, J S

    2011-01-01

    The segmentation of leukocytes and their components plays an important role in the extraction of geometric, texture, and morphological characteristics used to diagnose different diseases. This paper presents a novel method to segment leukocytes and their respective nucleus and cytoplasm from microscopic bone marrow leukemia cell images. Our method uses color and texture contextual information of image pixels to extract cellular elements from images, which show heterogeneous color and texture staining and high-cell population. The CIEL ( ∗ ) a ( ∗ ) b ( ∗ ) color space is used to extract color features, whereas a 2D Wold Decomposition model is applied to extract structural and stochastic texture features. The color and texture contextual information is incorporated into an unsupervised binary Markov Random Field segmentation model. Experimental results show the performance of the proposed method on both synthetic and real leukemia cell images. An average accuracy of 95% was achieved in the segmentation of real cell images by comparing those results with manually segmented cell images.

  16. Noiseless compression using non-Markov models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blumer, Anselm

    1989-01-01

    Adaptive data compression techniques can be viewed as consisting of a model specified by a database common to the encoder and decoder, an encoding rule and a rule for updating the model to ensure that the encoder and decoder always agree on the interpretation of the next transmission. The techniques which fit this framework range from run-length coding, to adaptive Huffman and arithmetic coding, to the string-matching techniques of Lempel and Ziv. The compression obtained by arithmetic coding is dependent on the generality of the source model. For many sources, an independent-letter model is clearly insufficient. Unfortunately, a straightforward implementation of a Markov model requires an amount of space exponential in the number of letters remembered. The Directed Acyclic Word Graph (DAWG) can be constructed in time and space proportional to the text encoded, and can be used to estimate the probabilities required for arithmetic coding based on an amount of memory which varies naturally depending on the encoded text. The tail of that portion of the text which was encoded is the longest suffix that has occurred previously. The frequencies of letters following these previous occurrences can be used to estimate the probability distribution of the next letter. Experimental results indicate that compression is often far better than that obtained using independent-letter models, and sometimes also significantly better than other non-independent techniques.

  17. Dynamical symmetries of Markov processes with multiplicative white noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aron, Camille; Barci, Daniel G.; Cugliandolo, Leticia F.; González Arenas, Zochil; Lozano, Gustavo S.

    2016-05-01

    We analyse various properties of stochastic Markov processes with multiplicative white noise. We take a single-variable problem as a simple example, and we later extend the analysis to the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert equation for the stochastic dynamics of a magnetic moment. In particular, we focus on the non-equilibrium transfer of angular momentum to the magnetization from a spin-polarised current of electrons, a technique which is widely used in the context of spintronics to manipulate magnetic moments. We unveil two hidden dynamical symmetries of the generating functionals of these Markovian multiplicative white-noise processes. One symmetry only holds in equilibrium and we use it to prove generic relations such as the fluctuation-dissipation theorems. Out of equilibrium, we take profit of the symmetry-breaking terms to prove fluctuation theorems. The other symmetry yields strong dynamical relations between correlation and response functions which can notably simplify the numerical analysis of these problems. Our construction allows us to clarify some misconceptions on multiplicative white-noise stochastic processes that can be found in the literature. In particular, we show that a first-order differential equation with multiplicative white noise can be transformed into an additive-noise equation, but that the latter keeps a non-trivial memory of the discretisation prescription used to define the former.

  18. Recursive recovery of Markov transition probabilities from boundary value data

    SciTech Connect

    Patch, S.K.

    1994-04-01

    In an effort to mathematically describe the anisotropic diffusion of infrared radiation in biological tissue Gruenbaum posed an anisotropic diffusion boundary value problem in 1989. In order to accommodate anisotropy, he discretized the temporal as well as the spatial domain. The probabilistic interpretation of the diffusion equation is retained; radiation is assumed to travel according to a random walk (of sorts). In this random walk the probabilities with which photons change direction depend upon their previous as well as present location. The forward problem gives boundary value data as a function of the Markov transition probabilities. The inverse problem requires finding the transition probabilities from boundary value data. Problems in the plane are studied carefully in this thesis. Consistency conditions amongst the data are derived. These conditions have two effects: they prohibit inversion of the forward map but permit smoothing of noisy data. Next, a recursive algorithm which yields a family of solutions to the inverse problem is detailed. This algorithm takes advantage of all independent data and generates a system of highly nonlinear algebraic equations. Pluecker-Grassmann relations are instrumental in simplifying the equations. The algorithm is used to solve the 4 {times} 4 problem. Finally, the smallest nontrivial problem in three dimensions, the 2 {times} 2 {times} 2 problem, is solved.

  19. Dynamical symmetries of Markov processes with multiplicative white noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aron, Camille; Barci, Daniel G.; Cugliandolo, Leticia F.; González Arenas, Zochil; Lozano, Gustavo S.

    2016-05-01

    We analyse various properties of stochastic Markov processes with multiplicative white noise. We take a single-variable problem as a simple example, and we later extend the analysis to the Landau–Lifshitz–Gilbert equation for the stochastic dynamics of a magnetic moment. In particular, we focus on the non-equilibrium transfer of angular momentum to the magnetization from a spin-polarised current of electrons, a technique which is widely used in the context of spintronics to manipulate magnetic moments. We unveil two hidden dynamical symmetries of the generating functionals of these Markovian multiplicative white-noise processes. One symmetry only holds in equilibrium and we use it to prove generic relations such as the fluctuation-dissipation theorems. Out of equilibrium, we take profit of the symmetry-breaking terms to prove fluctuation theorems. The other symmetry yields strong dynamical relations between correlation and response functions which can notably simplify the numerical analysis of these problems. Our construction allows us to clarify some misconceptions on multiplicative white-noise stochastic processes that can be found in the literature. In particular, we show that a first-order differential equation with multiplicative white noise can be transformed into an additive-noise equation, but that the latter keeps a non-trivial memory of the discretisation prescription used to define the former.

  20. Redefining CpG islands using hidden Markov models.

    PubMed

    Wu, Hao; Caffo, Brian; Jaffee, Harris A; Irizarry, Rafael A; Feinberg, Andrew P

    2010-07-01

    The DNA of most vertebrates is depleted in CpG dinucleotide: a C followed by a G in the 5' to 3' direction. CpGs are the target for DNA methylation, a chemical modification of cytosine (C) heritable during cell division and the most well-characterized epigenetic mechanism. The remaining CpGs tend to cluster in regions referred to as CpG islands (CGI). Knowing CGI locations is important because they mark functionally relevant epigenetic loci in development and disease. For various mammals, including human, a readily available and widely used list of CGI is available from the UCSC Genome Browser. This list was derived using algorithms that search for regions satisfying a definition of CGI proposed by Gardiner-Garden and Frommer more than 20 years ago. Recent findings, enabled by advances in technology that permit direct measurement of epigenetic endpoints at a whole-genome scale, motivate the need to adapt the current CGI definition. In this paper, we propose a procedure, guided by hidden Markov models, that permits an extensible approach to detecting CGI. The main advantage of our approach over others is that it summarizes the evidence for CGI status as probability scores. This provides flexibility in the definition of a CGI and facilitates the creation of CGI lists for other species. The utility of this approach is demonstrated by generating the first CGI lists for invertebrates, and the fact that we can create CGI lists that substantially increases overlap with recently discovered epigenetic marks. A CGI list and the probability scores, as a function of genome location, for each species are available at http://www.rafalab.org. PMID:20212320

  1. The Acquisition of Neg-V and V-Neg Order in Embedded Clauses in Swedish: A Microparametric Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Waldmann, Christian

    2014-01-01

    This article examines the acquisition of embedded verb placement in Swedish children, focusing on Neg-V and V-Neg order. It is proposed that a principle of economy of movement creates an overuse of V-Neg order in embedded clauses and that the low frequency of the target-consistent Neg-V order in child-directed speech obstructs children from…

  2. Accelerating Monte Carlo Markov chains with proxy and error models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Josset, Laureline; Demyanov, Vasily; Elsheikh, Ahmed H.; Lunati, Ivan

    2015-12-01

    In groundwater modeling, Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) simulations are often used to calibrate aquifer parameters and propagate the uncertainty to the quantity of interest (e.g., pollutant concentration). However, this approach requires a large number of flow simulations and incurs high computational cost, which prevents a systematic evaluation of the uncertainty in the presence of complex physical processes. To avoid this computational bottleneck, we propose to use an approximate model (proxy) to predict the response of the exact model. Here, we use a proxy that entails a very simplified description of the physics with respect to the detailed physics described by the "exact" model. The error model accounts for the simplification of the physical process; and it is trained on a learning set of realizations, for which both the proxy and exact responses are computed. First, the key features of the set of curves are extracted using functional principal component analysis; then, a regression model is built to characterize the relationship between the curves. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated on the Imperial College Fault model. We show that the joint use of the proxy and the error model to infer the model parameters in a two-stage MCMC set-up allows longer chains at a comparable computational cost. Unnecessary evaluations of the exact responses are avoided through a preliminary evaluation of the proposal made on the basis of the corrected proxy response. The error model trained on the learning set is crucial to provide a sufficiently accurate prediction of the exact response and guide the chains to the low misfit regions. The proposed methodology can be extended to multiple-chain algorithms or other Bayesian inference methods. Moreover, FPCA is not limited to the specific presented application and offers a general framework to build error models.

  3. Bayesian Markov Random Field analysis for protein function prediction based on network data.

    PubMed

    Kourmpetis, Yiannis A I; van Dijk, Aalt D J; Bink, Marco C A M; van Ham, Roeland C H J; ter Braak, Cajo J F

    2010-02-24

    Inference of protein functions is one of the most important aims of modern biology. To fully exploit the large volumes of genomic data typically produced in modern-day genomic experiments, automated computational methods for protein function prediction are urgently needed. Established methods use sequence or structure similarity to infer functions but those types of data do not suffice to determine the biological context in which proteins act. Current high-throughput biological experiments produce large amounts of data on the interactions between proteins. Such data can be used to infer interaction networks and to predict the biological process that the protein is involved in. Here, we develop a probabilistic approach for protein function prediction using network data, such as protein-protein interaction measurements. We take a Bayesian approach to an existing Markov Random Field method by performing simultaneous estimation of the model parameters and prediction of protein functions. We use an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm that leads to more accurate parameter estimates and consequently to improved prediction performance compared to the standard Markov Random Fields method. We tested our method using a high quality S. cereviciae validation network with 1622 proteins against 90 Gene Ontology terms of different levels of abstraction. Compared to three other protein function prediction methods, our approach shows very good prediction performance. Our method can be directly applied to protein-protein interaction or coexpression networks, but also can be extended to use multiple data sources. We apply our method to physical protein interaction data from S. cerevisiae and provide novel predictions, using 340 Gene Ontology terms, for 1170 unannotated proteins and we evaluate the predictions using the available literature.

  4. Unsupervised Segmentation of Hidden Semi-Markov Non Stationary Chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lapuyade-Lahorgue, Jérôme; Pieczynski, Wojciech

    2006-11-01

    In the classical hidden Markov chain (HMC) model we have a hidden chain X, which is a Markov one and an observed chain Y. HMC are widely used; however, in some situations they have to be replaced by the more general "hidden semi-Markov chains" (HSMC) which are particular "triplet Markov chains" (TMC) T = (X, U, Y), where the auxiliary chain U models the semi-Markovianity of X. Otherwise, non stationary classical HMC can also be modeled by a triplet Markov stationary chain with, as a consequence, the possibility of parameters' estimation. The aim of this paper is to use simultaneously both properties. We consider a non stationary HSMC and model it as a TMC T = (X, U1, U2, Y), where U1 models the semi-Markovianity and U2 models the non stationarity. The TMC T being itself stationary, all parameters can be estimated by the general "Iterative Conditional Estimation" (ICE) method, which leads to unsupervised segmentation. We present some experiments showing the interest of the new model and related processing in image segmentation area.

  5. Multivariate Markov processes for stochastic systems with delays: application to the stochastic Gompertz model with delay.

    PubMed

    Frank, T D

    2002-07-01

    Using the method of steps, we describe stochastic processes with delays in terms of Markov diffusion processes. Thus, multivariate Langevin equations and Fokker-Planck equations are derived for stochastic delay differential equations. Natural, periodic, and reflective boundary conditions are discussed. Both Ito and Stratonovich calculus are used. In particular, our Fokker-Planck approach recovers the generalized delay Fokker-Planck equation proposed by Guillouzic et al. The results obtained are applied to a model for population growth: the Gompertz model with delay and multiplicative white noise.

  6. Bayesian Modeling of Time Trends in Component Reliability Data via Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    D. L. Kelly

    2007-06-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques represent an extremely flexible and powerful approach to Bayesian modeling. This work illustrates the application of such techniques to time-dependent reliability of components with repair. The WinBUGS package is used to illustrate, via examples, how Bayesian techniques can be used for parametric statistical modeling of time-dependent component reliability. Additionally, the crucial, but often overlooked subject of model validation is discussed, and summary statistics for judging the model’s ability to replicate the observed data are developed, based on the posterior predictive distribution for the parameters of interest.

  7. H∞ filtering of Markov jump linear systems with general transition probabilities and output quantization.

    PubMed

    Shen, Mouquan; Park, Ju H

    2016-07-01

    This paper addresses the H∞ filtering of continuous Markov jump linear systems with general transition probabilities and output quantization. S-procedure is employed to handle the adverse influence of the quantization and a new approach is developed to conquer the nonlinearity induced by uncertain and unknown transition probabilities. Then, sufficient conditions are presented to ensure the filtering error system to be stochastically stable with the prescribed performance requirement. Without specified structure imposed on introduced slack variables, a flexible filter design method is established in terms of linear matrix inequalities. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated by a numerical example. PMID:27129765

  8. Multi-state Markov model for disability: A case of Malaysia Social Security (SOCSO)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samsuddin, Shamshimah; Ismail, Noriszura

    2016-06-01

    Studies of SOCSO's contributor outcomes like disability are usually restricted to a single outcome. In this respect, the study has focused on the approach of multi-state Markov model for estimating the transition probabilities among SOCSO's contributor in Malaysia between states: work, temporary disability, permanent disability and death at yearly intervals on age, gender, year and disability category; ignoring duration and past disability experience which is not consider of how or when someone arrived in that category. These outcomes represent different states which depend on health status among the workers.

  9. Behavioural effects of tourism on oceanic common dolphins, Delphinus sp., in New Zealand: the effects of Markov analysis variations and current tour operator compliance with regulations.

    PubMed

    Meissner, Anna M; Christiansen, Fredrik; Martinez, Emmanuelle; Pawley, Matthew D M; Orams, Mark B; Stockin, Karen A

    2015-01-01

    Common dolphins, Delphinus sp., are one of the marine mammal species tourism operations in New Zealand focus on. While effects of cetacean-watching activities have previously been examined in coastal regions in New Zealand, this study is the first to investigate effects of commercial tourism and recreational vessels on common dolphins in an open oceanic habitat. Observations from both an independent research vessel and aboard commercial tour vessels operating off the central and east coast Bay of Plenty, North Island, New Zealand were used to assess dolphin behaviour and record the level of compliance by permitted commercial tour operators and private recreational vessels with New Zealand regulations. Dolphin behaviour was assessed using two different approaches to Markov chain analysis in order to examine variation of responses of dolphins to vessels. Results showed that, regardless of the variance in Markov methods, dolphin foraging behaviour was significantly altered by boat interactions. Dolphins spent less time foraging during interactions and took significantly longer to return to foraging once disrupted by vessel presence. This research raises concerns about the potential disruption to feeding, a biologically critical behaviour. This may be particularly important in an open oceanic habitat, where prey resources are typically widely dispersed and unpredictable in abundance. Furthermore, because tourism in this region focuses on common dolphins transiting between adjacent coastal locations, the potential for cumulative effects could exacerbate the local effects demonstrated in this study. While the overall level of compliance by commercial operators was relatively high, non-compliance to the regulations was observed with time restriction, number or speed of vessels interacting with dolphins not being respected. Additionally, prohibited swimming with calves did occur. The effects shown in this study should be carefully considered within conservation management

  10. Behavioural effects of tourism on oceanic common dolphins, Delphinus sp., in New Zealand: the effects of Markov analysis variations and current tour operator compliance with regulations.

    PubMed

    Meissner, Anna M; Christiansen, Fredrik; Martinez, Emmanuelle; Pawley, Matthew D M; Orams, Mark B; Stockin, Karen A

    2015-01-01

    Common dolphins, Delphinus sp., are one of the marine mammal species tourism operations in New Zealand focus on. While effects of cetacean-watching activities have previously been examined in coastal regions in New Zealand, this study is the first to investigate effects of commercial tourism and recreational vessels on common dolphins in an open oceanic habitat. Observations from both an independent research vessel and aboard commercial tour vessels operating off the central and east coast Bay of Plenty, North Island, New Zealand were used to assess dolphin behaviour and record the level of compliance by permitted commercial tour operators and private recreational vessels with New Zealand regulations. Dolphin behaviour was assessed using two different approaches to Markov chain analysis in order to examine variation of responses of dolphins to vessels. Results showed that, regardless of the variance in Markov methods, dolphin foraging behaviour was significantly altered by boat interactions. Dolphins spent less time foraging during interactions and took significantly longer to return to foraging once disrupted by vessel presence. This research raises concerns about the potential disruption to feeding, a biologically critical behaviour. This may be particularly important in an open oceanic habitat, where prey resources are typically widely dispersed and unpredictable in abundance. Furthermore, because tourism in this region focuses on common dolphins transiting between adjacent coastal locations, the potential for cumulative effects could exacerbate the local effects demonstrated in this study. While the overall level of compliance by commercial operators was relatively high, non-compliance to the regulations was observed with time restriction, number or speed of vessels interacting with dolphins not being respected. Additionally, prohibited swimming with calves did occur. The effects shown in this study should be carefully considered within conservation management

  11. Behavioural Effects of Tourism on Oceanic Common Dolphins, Delphinus sp., in New Zealand: The Effects of Markov Analysis Variations and Current Tour Operator Compliance with Regulations

    PubMed Central

    Meissner, Anna M.; Christiansen, Fredrik; Martinez, Emmanuelle; Pawley, Matthew D. M.; Orams, Mark B.; Stockin, Karen A.

    2015-01-01

    Common dolphins, Delphinus sp., are one of the marine mammal species tourism operations in New Zealand focus on. While effects of cetacean-watching activities have previously been examined in coastal regions in New Zealand, this study is the first to investigate effects of commercial tourism and recreational vessels on common dolphins in an open oceanic habitat. Observations from both an independent research vessel and aboard commercial tour vessels operating off the central and east coast Bay of Plenty, North Island, New Zealand were used to assess dolphin behaviour and record the level of compliance by permitted commercial tour operators and private recreational vessels with New Zealand regulations. Dolphin behaviour was assessed using two different approaches to Markov chain analysis in order to examine variation of responses of dolphins to vessels. Results showed that, regardless of the variance in Markov methods, dolphin foraging behaviour was significantly altered by boat interactions. Dolphins spent less time foraging during interactions and took significantly longer to return to foraging once disrupted by vessel presence. This research raises concerns about the potential disruption to feeding, a biologically critical behaviour. This may be particularly important in an open oceanic habitat, where prey resources are typically widely dispersed and unpredictable in abundance. Furthermore, because tourism in this region focuses on common dolphins transiting between adjacent coastal locations, the potential for cumulative effects could exacerbate the local effects demonstrated in this study. While the overall level of compliance by commercial operators was relatively high, non-compliance to the regulations was observed with time restriction, number or speed of vessels interacting with dolphins not being respected. Additionally, prohibited swimming with calves did occur. The effects shown in this study should be carefully considered within conservation management

  12. A Markov chain technique for determining the acquisition behavior of a digital tracking loop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chadwick, H. D.

    1972-01-01

    An iterative procedure is presented for determining the acquisition behavior of discrete or digital implementations of a tracking loop. The technique is based on the theory of Markov chains and provides the cumulative probability of acquisition in the loop as a function of time in the presence of noise and a given set of initial condition probabilities. A digital second-order tracking loop to be used in the Viking command receiver for continuous tracking of the command subcarrier phase was analyzed using this technique, and the results agree closely with experimental data.

  13. A multi-level solution algorithm for steady-state Markov chains

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horton, Graham; Leutenegger, Scott T.

    1993-01-01

    A new iterative algorithm, the multi-level algorithm, for the numerical solution of steady state Markov chains is presented. The method utilizes a set of recursively coarsened representations of the original system to achieve accelerated convergence. It is motivated by multigrid methods, which are widely used for fast solution of partial differential equations. Initial results of numerical experiments are reported, showing significant reductions in computation time, often an order of magnitude or more, relative to the Gauss-Seidel and optimal SOR algorithms for a variety of test problems. The multi-level method is compared and contrasted with the iterative aggregation-disaggregation algorithm of Takahashi.

  14. Accelerating population balance-Monte Carlo simulation for coagulation dynamics from the Markov jump model, stochastic algorithm and GPU parallel computing

    SciTech Connect

    Xu, Zuwei; Zhao, Haibo Zheng, Chuguang

    2015-01-15

    This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for accelerating population balance-Monte Carlo (PBMC) simulation of particle coagulation dynamics. By combining Markov jump model, weighted majorant kernel and GPU (graphics processing unit) parallel computing, a significant gain in computational efficiency is achieved. The Markov jump model constructs a coagulation-rule matrix of differentially-weighted simulation particles, so as to capture the time evolution of particle size distribution with low statistical noise over the full size range and as far as possible to reduce the number of time loopings. Here three coagulation rules are highlighted and it is found that constructing appropriate coagulation rule provides a route to attain the compromise between accuracy and cost of PBMC methods. Further, in order to avoid double looping over all simulation particles when considering the two-particle events (typically, particle coagulation), the weighted majorant kernel is introduced to estimate the maximum coagulation rates being used for acceptance–rejection processes by single-looping over all particles, and meanwhile the mean time-step of coagulation event is estimated by summing the coagulation kernels of rejected and accepted particle pairs. The computational load of these fast differentially-weighted PBMC simulations (based on the Markov jump model) is reduced greatly to be proportional to the number of simulation particles in a zero-dimensional system (single cell). Finally, for a spatially inhomogeneous multi-dimensional (multi-cell) simulation, the proposed fast PBMC is performed in each cell, and multiple cells are parallel processed by multi-cores on a GPU that can implement the massively threaded data-parallel tasks to obtain remarkable speedup ratio (comparing with CPU computation, the speedup ratio of GPU parallel computing is as high as 200 in a case of 100 cells with 10 000 simulation particles per cell). These accelerating approaches of PBMC are

  15. Accelerating population balance-Monte Carlo simulation for coagulation dynamics from the Markov jump model, stochastic algorithm and GPU parallel computing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Zuwei; Zhao, Haibo; Zheng, Chuguang

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for accelerating population balance-Monte Carlo (PBMC) simulation of particle coagulation dynamics. By combining Markov jump model, weighted majorant kernel and GPU (graphics processing unit) parallel computing, a significant gain in computational efficiency is achieved. The Markov jump model constructs a coagulation-rule matrix of differentially-weighted simulation particles, so as to capture the time evolution of particle size distribution with low statistical noise over the full size range and as far as possible to reduce the number of time loopings. Here three coagulation rules are highlighted and it is found that constructing appropriate coagulation rule provides a route to attain the compromise between accuracy and cost of PBMC methods. Further, in order to avoid double looping over all simulation particles when considering the two-particle events (typically, particle coagulation), the weighted majorant kernel is introduced to estimate the maximum coagulation rates being used for acceptance-rejection processes by single-looping over all particles, and meanwhile the mean time-step of coagulation event is estimated by summing the coagulation kernels of rejected and accepted particle pairs. The computational load of these fast differentially-weighted PBMC simulations (based on the Markov jump model) is reduced greatly to be proportional to the number of simulation particles in a zero-dimensional system (single cell). Finally, for a spatially inhomogeneous multi-dimensional (multi-cell) simulation, the proposed fast PBMC is performed in each cell, and multiple cells are parallel processed by multi-cores on a GPU that can implement the massively threaded data-parallel tasks to obtain remarkable speedup ratio (comparing with CPU computation, the speedup ratio of GPU parallel computing is as high as 200 in a case of 100 cells with 10 000 simulation particles per cell). These accelerating approaches of PBMC are

  16. MARKOV: A methodology for the solution of infinite time horizon MARKOV decision processes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.

    1988-01-01

    Algorithms are described for determining optimal policies for finite state, finite action, infinite discrete time horizon Markov decision processes. Both value-improvement and policy-improvement techniques are used in the algorithms. Computing procedures are also described. The algorithms are appropriate for processes that are either finite or infinite, deterministic or stochastic, discounted or undiscounted, in any meaningful combination of these features. Computing procedures are described in terms of initial data processing, bound improvements, process reduction, and testing and solution. Application of the methodology is illustrated with an example involving natural resource management. Management implications of certain hypothesized relationships between mallard survival and harvest rates are addressed by applying the optimality procedures to mallard population models.

  17. Markov sequential pattern recognition : dependency and the unknown class.

    SciTech Connect

    Malone, Kevin Thomas; Haschke, Greg Benjamin; Koch, Mark William

    2004-10-01

    The sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) minimizes the expected number of observations to a decision and can solve problems in sequential pattern recognition. Some problems have dependencies between the observations, and Markov chains can model dependencies where the state occupancy probability is geometric. For a non-geometric process we show how to use the effective amount of independent information to modify the decision process, so that we can account for the remaining dependencies. Along with dependencies between observations, a successful system needs to handle the unknown class in unconstrained environments. For example, in an acoustic pattern recognition problem any sound source not belonging to the target set is in the unknown class. We show how to incorporate goodness of fit (GOF) classifiers into the Markov SPRT, and determine the worse case nontarget model. We also develop a multiclass Markov SPRT using the GOF concept.

  18. A New Markov Random Field Segmentation Method for Breast Lesion Segmentation in MR images.

    PubMed

    Azmi, Reza; Norozi, Narges

    2011-07-01

    Breast cancer is a major public health problem for women in the Iran and many other parts of the world. Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) plays a pivotal role in breast cancer care, including detection, diagnosis, and treatment monitoring. But segmentation of these images which is seriously affected by intensity inhomogeneities created by radio-frequency coils is a challenging task. Markov Random Field (MRF) is used widely in medical image segmentation especially in MR images. It is because this method can model intensity inhomogeneities occurring in these images. But this method has two critical weaknesses: Computational complexity and sensitivity of the results to the models parameters. To overcome these problems, in this paper, we present Improved-Markov Random Field (I-MRF) method for breast lesion segmentation in MR images. Unlike the conventional MRF, in the proposed approach, we don't use the Iterative Conditional Mode (ICM) method or Simulated Annealing (SA) for class membership estimation of each pixel (lesion and non-lesion). The prior distribution of the class membership is modeled as a ratio of two conditional probability distributions in a neighborhood which is defined for each pixel: probability distribution of similar pixels and non-similar ones. Since our proposed approach don't use an iterative method for maximizing the posterior probability, above mentioned problems are solved. Experimental results show that performance of segmentation in this approach is higher than conventional MRF in terms of accuracy, precision, and Computational complexity.

  19. Multilayer Markov Random Field models for change detection in optical remote sensing images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benedek, Csaba; Shadaydeh, Maha; Kato, Zoltan; Szirányi, Tamás; Zerubia, Josiane

    2015-09-01

    In this paper, we give a comparative study on three Multilayer Markov Random Field (MRF) based solutions proposed for change detection in optical remote sensing images, called Multicue MRF, Conditional Mixed Markov model, and Fusion MRF. Our purposes are twofold. On one hand, we highlight the significance of the focused model family and we set them against various state-of-the-art approaches through a thematic analysis and quantitative tests. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of class comparison vs. direct approaches, usage of training data, various targeted application fields and different ways of Ground Truth generation, meantime informing the Reader in which roles the Multilayer MRFs can be efficiently applied. On the other hand we also emphasize the differences between the three focused models at various levels, considering the model structures, feature extraction, layer interpretation, change concept definition, parameter tuning and performance. We provide qualitative and quantitative comparison results using principally a publicly available change detection database which contains aerial image pairs and Ground Truth change masks. We conclude that the discussed models are competitive against alternative state-of-the-art solutions, if one uses them as pre-processing filters in multitemporal optical image analysis. In addition, they cover together a large range of applications, considering the different usage options of the three approaches.

  20. A Markov model to estimate Salmonella morbidity, mortality, illness duration, and cost.

    PubMed

    Herrick, Robert L; Buchberger, Steven G; Clark, Robert M; Kupferle, Margaret; Murray, Regan; Succop, Paul

    2012-10-01

    Approximately 690000-1790000 Salmonella cases, 20000 hospitalizations, and 400 deaths occur in the USA annually, costing approximately $2.6bn. Existing models estimate morbidity, mortality, and cost solely from incidence. They do not estimate illness duration or use time as an independent cost predictor. Existing models may underestimate physician visits, hospitalizations, deaths, and associated costs. We developed a Markov chain Monte Carlo model to estimate illness duration, physician/emergency room visits, inpatient hospitalizations, mortality, and resultant costs for a given Salmonella incidence. Interested parties include society, third-party payers, health providers, federal, state and local governments, businesses, and individual patients and their families. The marginal approach estimates individual disease behavior for every patient, explicitly estimates disease duration and calculates separate time-dependent costs. The aggregate approach is a Markov equivalent of the existing models; it assumes average disease behavior and cost for a given morbidity/mortality. Transition probabilities were drawn from a meta-analysis of 53 Salmonella studies. Both approaches were tested using the 1993 Salmonella typhimurium outbreak in Gideon, Missouri. This protocol can be applied to estimate morbidity, mortality and cost of specific outbreaks, provide better national Salmonella burden estimates, and estimate the benefits of reducing Salmonella risk.

  1. Heart beat detection in multimodal physiological data using a hidden semi-Markov model and signal quality indices.

    PubMed

    A F Pimentel, Marco; Santos, Mauro D; Springer, David B; Clifford, Gari D

    2015-08-01

    Accurate heart beat detection in signals acquired from intensive care unit (ICU) patients is necessary for establishing both normality and detecting abnormal events. Detection is normally performed by analysing the electrocardiogram (ECG) signal, and alarms are triggered when parameters derived from this signal exceed preset or variable thresholds. However, due to noisy and missing data, these alarms are frequently deemed to be false positives, and therefore ignored by clinical staff. The fusion of features derived from other signals, such as the arterial blood pressure (ABP) or the photoplethysmogram (PPG), has the potential to reduce such false alarms. In order to leverage the highly correlated temporal nature of the physiological signals, a hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) approach, which uses the intra- and inter-beat depolarization interval, was designed to detect heart beats in such data. Features based on the wavelet transform, signal gradient and signal quality indices were extracted from the ECG and ABP waveforms for use in the HSMM framework. The presented method achieved an overall score of 89.13% on the hidden/test data set provided by the Physionet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge 2014: Robust Detection of Heart Beats in Multimodal Data. PMID:26218536

  2. Heart beat detection in multimodal physiological data using a hidden semi-Markov model and signal quality indices.

    PubMed

    A F Pimentel, Marco; Santos, Mauro D; Springer, David B; Clifford, Gari D

    2015-08-01

    Accurate heart beat detection in signals acquired from intensive care unit (ICU) patients is necessary for establishing both normality and detecting abnormal events. Detection is normally performed by analysing the electrocardiogram (ECG) signal, and alarms are triggered when parameters derived from this signal exceed preset or variable thresholds. However, due to noisy and missing data, these alarms are frequently deemed to be false positives, and therefore ignored by clinical staff. The fusion of features derived from other signals, such as the arterial blood pressure (ABP) or the photoplethysmogram (PPG), has the potential to reduce such false alarms. In order to leverage the highly correlated temporal nature of the physiological signals, a hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) approach, which uses the intra- and inter-beat depolarization interval, was designed to detect heart beats in such data. Features based on the wavelet transform, signal gradient and signal quality indices were extracted from the ECG and ABP waveforms for use in the HSMM framework. The presented method achieved an overall score of 89.13% on the hidden/test data set provided by the Physionet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge 2014: Robust Detection of Heart Beats in Multimodal Data.

  3. Impact-acoustics inspection of tile-wall bonding integrity via wavelet transform and hidden Markov models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luk, B. L.; Liu, K. P.; Tong, F.; Man, K. F.

    2010-05-01

    The impact-acoustics method utilizes different information contained in the acoustic signals generated by tapping a structure with a small metal object. It offers a convenient and cost-efficient way to inspect the tile-wall bonding integrity. However, the existence of the surface irregularities will cause abnormal multiple bounces in the practical inspection implementations. The spectral characteristics from those bounces can easily be confused with the signals obtained from different bonding qualities. As a result, it will deteriorate the classic feature-based classification methods based on frequency domain. Another crucial difficulty posed by the implementation is the additive noise existing in the practical environments that may also cause feature mismatch and false judgment. In order to solve this problem, the work described in this paper aims to develop a robust inspection method that applies model-based strategy, and utilizes the wavelet domain features with hidden Markov modeling. It derives a bonding integrity recognition approach with enhanced immunity to surface roughness as well as the environmental noise. With the help of the specially designed artificial sample slabs, experiments have been carried out with impact acoustic signals contaminated by real environmental noises acquired under practical inspection background. The results are compared with those using classic method to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  4. Understanding agent-based models of financial markets: A bottom-up approach based on order parameters and phase diagrams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lye, Ribin; Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Ann

    2012-11-01

    We describe a bottom-up framework, based on the identification of appropriate order parameters and determination of phase diagrams, for understanding progressively refined agent-based models and simulations of financial markets. We illustrate this framework by starting with a deterministic toy model, whereby N independent traders buy and sell M stocks through an order book that acts as a clearing house. The price of a stock increases whenever it is bought and decreases whenever it is sold. Price changes are updated by the order book before the next transaction takes place. In this deterministic model, all traders based their buy decisions on a call utility function, and all their sell decisions on a put utility function. We then make the agent-based model more realistic, by either having a fraction fb of traders buy a random stock on offer, or a fraction fs of traders sell a random stock in their portfolio. Based on our simulations, we find that it is possible to identify useful order parameters from the steady-state price distributions of all three models. Using these order parameters as a guide, we find three phases: (i) the dead market; (ii) the boom market; and (iii) the jammed market in the phase diagram of the deterministic model. Comparing the phase diagrams of the stochastic models against that of the deterministic model, we realize that the primary effect of stochasticity is to eliminate the dead market phase.

  5. Stochastic rainfall modeling in West Africa: Parsimonious approaches for domestic rainwater harvesting assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cowden, Joshua R.; Watkins, David W., Jr.; Mihelcic, James R.

    2008-10-01

    SummarySeveral parsimonious stochastic rainfall models are developed and compared for application to domestic rainwater harvesting (DRWH) assessment in West Africa. Worldwide, improved water access rates are lowest for Sub-Saharan Africa, including the West African region, and these low rates have important implications on the health and economy of the region. Domestic rainwater harvesting (DRWH) is proposed as a potential mechanism for water supply enhancement, especially for the poor urban households in the region, which is essential for development planning and poverty alleviation initiatives. The stochastic rainfall models examined are Markov models and LARS-WG, selected due to availability and ease of use for water planners in the developing world. A first-order Markov occurrence model with a mixed exponential amount model is selected as the best option for unconditioned Markov models. However, there is no clear advantage in selecting Markov models over the LARS-WG model for DRWH in West Africa, with each model having distinct strengths and weaknesses. A multi-model approach is used in assessing DRWH in the region to illustrate the variability associated with the rainfall models. It is clear DRWH can be successfully used as a water enhancement mechanism in West Africa for certain times of the year. A 200 L drum storage capacity could potentially optimize these simple, small roof area systems for many locations in the region.

  6. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for the groundwater inverse problem.

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, Z.; Higdon, D. M.; Zhang, D.

    2004-01-01

    In this study, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) to estimate the hydraulic conductivity field conditioned on the direct measurements of hydraulic conductivity and indirect measurements of dependent variables such as hydraulic head for saturated flow in randomly heterogeneous porous media. The log hydraulic conductivity field is represented (parameterized) by the combination of some basis kernels centered at fixed spatial locations. The prior distribution for the vector of coefficients {theta} are taken from a posterior distribution {pi}({theta}/d) that is proportional to the product of the likelihood function of measurements d given parameter vector {theta} and the prior distribution of {theta}. Starting from any initial setting, a partial realization of a Markov chain is generated by updating only one component of {theta} at a time according to Metropolis rules. This ensures that output from this chain has {pi}({theta}/d) as its stationary distribution. The posterior mean of the parameter {theta} (and thus the mean log hydraulic conductivity conditional to measurements on hydraulic conductivity, and hydraulic head) can be estimated from the Markov chain realizations (ignoring some early realizations). The uncertainty associated with the mean filed can also be assessed from these realizations. In addition, the MCMC approach provides an alternative for estimating conditional predictions of hydraulic head and concentration and their associated uncertainties. Numerical examples for flow in a hypothetic random porous medium show that estimated log hydraulic conductivity field from the MCMC approach is closer to the original hypothetical random field than those obtained using kriging or cokriging methods.

  7. Unsupervised SAR images change detection with hidden Markov chains on a sliding window

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouyahia, Zied; Benyoussef, Lamia; Derrode, Stéphane

    2007-10-01

    This work deals with unsupervised change detection in bi-date Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. Whatever the indicator of change used, e.g. log-ratio or Kullback-Leibler divergence, we have observed poor quality change maps for some events when using the Hidden Markov Chain (HMC) model we focus on in this work. The main reason comes from the stationary assumption involved in this model - and in most Markovian models such as Hidden Markov Random Fields-, which can not be justified in most observed scenes: changed areas are not necessarily stationary in the image. Besides the few non stationary Markov models proposed in the literature, the aim of this paper is to describe a pragmatic solution to tackle stationarity by using a sliding window strategy. In this algorithm, the criterion image is scanned pixel by pixel, and a classical HMC model is applied only on neighboring pixels. By moving the window through the image, the process is able to produce a change map which can better exhibit non stationary changes than the classical HMC applied directly on the whole criterion image. Special care is devoted to the estimation of the number of classes in each window, which can vary from one (no change) to three (positive change, negative change and no change) by using the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) suited to small samples. The quality assessment of the proposed approach is achieved with speckle-simulated images in which simulated changes is introduced. The windowed strategy is also evaluated with a pair of RADARSAT images bracketing the Nyiragongo volcano eruption event in January 2002. The available ground truth confirms the effectiveness of the proposed approach compared to a classical HMC-based strategy.

  8. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo Orbit Computation for Binary Asteroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oszkiewicz, D.; Hestroffer, D.; Pedro, David C.

    2013-11-01

    We present a novel method of orbit computation for resolved binary asteroids. The method combines the Thiele, Innes, van den Bos method with a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique (MCMC). The classical Thiele-van den Bos method has been commonly used in multiple applications before, including orbits of binary stars and asteroids; conversely this novel method can be used for the analysis of binary stars, and of other gravitationally bound binaries. The method requires a minimum of three observations (observing times and relative positions - Cartesian or polar) made at the same tangent plane - or close enough for enabling a first approximation. Further, the use of the MCMC technique for statistical inversion yields the whole bundle of possible orbits, including the one that is most probable. In this new method, we make use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to sample the parameters of the Thiele-van den Bos method, that is the orbital period (or equivalently the double areal constant) together with three randomly selected observations from the same tangent plane. The observations are sampled within their observational errors (with an assumed distribution) and the orbital period is the only parameter that has to be tuned during the sampling procedure. We run multiple chains to ensure that the parameter phase space is well sampled and that the solutions have converged. After the sampling is completed we perform convergence diagnostics. The main advantage of the novel approach is that the orbital period does not need to be known in advance and the entire region of possible orbital solutions is sampled resulting in a maximum likelihood solution and the confidence regions. We have tested the new method on several known binary asteroids and conclude a good agreement with the results obtained with other methods. The new method has been implemented into the Gaia DPAC data reduction pipeline and can be used to confirm the binary nature of a suspected system, and for deriving

  9. Group association test using a hidden Markov model.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Yichen; Dai, James Y; Kooperberg, Charles

    2016-04-01

    In the genomic era, group association tests are of great interest. Due to the overwhelming number of individual genomic features, the power of testing for association of a single genomic feature at a time is often very small, as are the effect sizes for most features. Many methods have been proposed to test association of a trait with a group of features within a functional unit as a whole, e.g. all SNPs in a gene, yet few of these methods account for the fact that generally a substantial proportion of the features are not associated with the trait. In this paper, we propose to model the association for each feature in the group as a mixture of features with no association and features with non-zero associations to explicitly account for the possibility that a fraction of features may not be associated with the trait while other features in the group are. The feature-level associations are first estimated by generalized linear models; the sequence of these estimated associations is then modeled by a hidden Markov chain. To test for global association, we develop a modified likelihood ratio test based on a log-likelihood function that ignores higher order dependency plus a penalty term. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test under the null hypothesis. Furthermore, we obtain the posterior probability of association for each feature, which provides evidence of feature-level association and is useful for potential follow-up studies. In simulations and data application, we show that our proposed method performs well when compared with existing group association tests especially when there are only few features associated with the outcome. PMID:26420797

  10. Utilizing Gaussian Markov random field properties of Bayesian animal models.

    PubMed

    Steinsland, Ingelin; Jensen, Henrik

    2010-09-01

    In this article, we demonstrate how Gaussian Markov random field properties give large computational benefits and new opportunities for the Bayesian animal model. We make inference by computing the posteriors for important quantitative genetic variables. For the single-trait animal model, a nonsampling-based approximation is presented. For the multitrait model, we set up a robust and fast Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The proposed methodology was used to analyze quantitative genetic properties of morphological traits of a wild house sparrow population. Results for single- and multitrait models were compared.

  11. On a Markov chain roulette-type game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Shehawey, M. A.; El-Shreef, Gh A.

    2009-05-01

    A Markov chain on non-negative integers which arises in a roulette-type game is discussed. The transition probabilities are p01 = ρ, pNj = δNj, pi,i+W = q, pi,i-1 = p = 1 - q, 1 <= W < N, 0 <= ρ <= 1, N - W < j <= N and i = 1, 2, ..., N - W. Using formulae for the determinant of a partitioned matrix, a closed form expression for the solution of the Markov chain roulette-type game is deduced. The present analysis is supported by two mathematical models from tumor growth and war with bargaining.

  12. Time operator of Markov chains and mixing times. Applications to financial data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gialampoukidis, I.; Gustafson, K.; Antoniou, I.

    2014-12-01

    We extend the notion of Time Operator from Kolmogorov Dynamical Systems and Bernoulli processes to Markov processes. The general methodology is presented and illustrated in the simple case of binary processes. We present a method to compute the eigenfunctions of the Time Operator. Internal Ages are related to other characteristic times of Markov chains, namely the Kemeny time, the convergence rate and Goodman’s intrinsic time. We clarified the concept of mixing time by providing analytic formulas for two-state Markov chains. Explicit formulas for mixing times are presented for any two-state regular Markov chain. The mixing time of a Markov chain is determined also by the Time Operator of the Markov chain, within its Age computation. We illustrate these results in terms of two realistic examples: A Markov chain from US GNP data and a Markov chain from Dow Jones closing prices. We propose moreover a representation for the Kemeny constant, in terms of internal Ages.

  13. (Re)Acting Medicine: Applying Theatre in Order to Develop a Whole-Systems Approach to Understanding the Healing Response

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldingay, S.; Dieppe, P.; Mangan, M.; Marsden, D.

    2014-01-01

    This critical reflection is based on the belief that creative practitioners should be using their own well-established approaches to trouble dominant paradigms in health and care provision to both form and inform the future of healing provision and well-being creation. It describes work by a transdisciplinary team (drama and medicine) that is…

  14. Gaining a Better Understanding of Surface-Subsurface Reactive Transport using a High-Order Advection Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beisman, J. J., III; Maxwell, R. M.; Navarre-Sitchler, A.; Steefel, C. I.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the interactions between physical, geochemical, and biological processes in the shallow subsurface is prerequisite to the development of effective contamination remediation techniques, or the accurate quantification of nutrient fluxes and biogeochemical cycling. Here we present recent developments to the massively parallel reactive transport code ParCrunchFlow. This model, previously applicable only to steady-state, saturated subsurface flows, has been extended to transient, surface-subsurface systems. Proof-of-concept simulations detailing reactive transport processes in hillslope and floodplain settings will be presented. In order to reduce the numerical dispersion inherent in grid based advection schemes, which can lead to an over prediction of reaction rates, a weighted, essentially non-oscillatory (WENO) advection scheme has been implemented, providing formal fifth-order spatial and third-order temporal accuracy. We use a mass-conservative, positivity-preserving flux limiter while advecting solute concentrations to prevent non-physical solutions. The effects of advection schemes and their associated numerical dispersion on reaction rates are evaluated by comparing our scheme to a monotonic lower order scheme in a transverse mixing scenario. The work presented here allows a better understanding of nutrient cycling dynamics in watershed systems.

  15. First-order exchange coefficient coupling for simulating surface water-groundwater interactions: Parameter sensitivity and consistency with a physics-based approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ebel, B.A.; Mirus, B.B.; Heppner, C.S.; VanderKwaak, J.E.; Loague, K.

    2009-01-01

    Distributed hydrologic models capable of simulating fully-coupled surface water and groundwater flow are increasingly used to examine problems in the hydrologic sciences. Several techniques are currently available to couple the surface and subsurface; the two most frequently employed approaches are first-order exchange coefficients (a.k.a., the surface conductance method) and enforced continuity of pressure and flux at the surface-subsurface boundary condition. The effort reported here examines the parameter sensitivity of simulated hydrologic response for the first-order exchange coefficients at a well-characterized field site using the fully coupled Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM). This investigation demonstrates that the first-order exchange coefficients can be selected such that the simulated hydrologic response is insensitive to the parameter choice, while simulation time is considerably reduced. Alternatively, the ability to choose a first-order exchange coefficient that intentionally decouples the surface and subsurface facilitates concept-development simulations to examine real-world situations where the surface-subsurface exchange is impaired. While the parameters comprising the first-order exchange coefficient cannot be directly estimated or measured, the insensitivity of the simulated flow system to these parameters (when chosen appropriately) combined with the ability to mimic actual physical processes suggests that the first-order exchange coefficient approach can be consistent with a physics-based framework. Copyright ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. An in vivo and in silico approach to study cis-antisense: a short cut to higher order response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Courtney, Colleen; Varanasi, Usha; Chatterjee, Anushree

    2014-03-01

    Antisense interactions are present in all domains of life. Typically sense, antisense RNA pairs originate from overlapping genes with convergent face to face promoters, and are speculated to be involved in gene regulation. Recent studies indicate the role of transcriptional interference (TI) in regulating expression of genes in convergent orientation. Modeling antisense, TI gene regulation mechanisms allows us to understand how organisms control gene expression. We present a modeling and experimental framework to understand convergent transcription that combines the effects of transcriptional interference and cis-antisense regulation. Our model shows that combining transcriptional interference and antisense RNA interaction adds multiple-levels of regulation which affords a highly tunable biological output, ranging from first order response to complex higher-order response. To study this system we created a library of experimental constructs with engineered TI and antisense interaction by using face-to-face inducible promoters separated by carefully tailored overlapping DNA sequences to control expression of a set of fluorescent reporter proteins. Studying this gene expression mechanism allows for an understanding of higher order behavior of gene expression networks.

  17. Method of Coding Search Strings as Markov Processes Using a Higher Level Language.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ghanti, Srinivas; Evans, John E.

    For much of the twentieth century, Markov theory and Markov processes have been widely accepted as valid ways to view statistical variables and parameters. In the complex realm of online searching, where researchers are always seeking the route to the best search strategies and the most powerful query terms and sequences, Markov process analysis…

  18. Automatic segmentation of breast MR images through a Markov random field statistical model.

    PubMed

    Ribes, S; Didierlaurent, D; Decoster, N; Gonneau, E; Risser, L; Feillel, V; Caselles, O

    2014-10-01

    An algorithm dedicated to automatic segmentation of breast magnetic resonance images is presented in this paper. Our approach is based on a pipeline that includes a denoising step and statistical segmentation. The noise removal preprocessing relies on an anisotropic diffusion scheme, whereas the statistical segmentation is conducted through a Markov random field model. The continuous updating of all parameters governing the diffusion process enables automatic denoising, and the partial volume effect is also addressed during the labeling step. To assess the relevance, the Jaccard similarity coefficient was computed. Experiments were conducted on synthetic data and breast magnetic resonance images extracted from a high-risk population. The relevance of the approach for the dataset is highlighted, and we demonstrate accuracy superior to that of traditional clustering algorithms. The results emphasize the benefits of both denoising guided by input data and the inclusion of spatial dependency through a Markov random field. For example, the Jaccard coefficient for the clinical data was increased by 114%, 109%, and 140% with respect to a K-means algorithm and, respectively, for the adipose, glandular and muscle and skin components. Moreover, the agreement between the manual segmentations provided by an experienced radiologist and the automatic segmentations performed with this algorithm was good, with Jaccard coefficients equal to 0.769, 0.756, and 0.694 for the above-mentioned classes.

  19. Spatially Enhanced Differential RNA Methylation Analysis from Affinity-Based Sequencing Data with Hidden Markov Model

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yu-Chen; Zhang, Shao-Wu; Liu, Lian; Liu, Hui; Zhang, Lin; Cui, Xiaodong; Huang, Yufei; Meng, Jia

    2015-01-01

    With the development of new sequencing technology, the entire N6-methyl-adenosine (m6A) RNA methylome can now be unbiased profiled with methylated RNA immune-precipitation sequencing technique (MeRIP-Seq), making it possible to detect differential methylation states of RNA between two conditions, for example, between normal and cancerous tissue. However, as an affinity-based method, MeRIP-Seq has yet provided base-pair resolution; that is, a single methylation site determined from MeRIP-Seq data can in practice contain multiple RNA methylation residuals, some of which can be regulated by different enzymes and thus differentially methylated between two conditions. Since existing peak-based methods could not effectively differentiate multiple methylation residuals located within a single methylation site, we propose a hidden Markov model (HMM) based approach to address this issue. Specifically, the detected RNA methylation site is further divided into multiple adjacent small bins and then scanned with higher resolution using a hidden Markov model to model the dependency between spatially adjacent bins for improved accuracy. We tested the proposed algorithm on both simulated data and real data. Result suggests that the proposed algorithm clearly outperforms existing peak-based approach on simulated systems and detects differential methylation regions with higher statistical significance on real dataset. PMID:26301253

  20. Controlling influenza disease: Comparison between discrete time Markov chain and deterministic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Novkaniza, F.; Ivana, Aldila, D.

    2016-04-01

    Mathematical model of respiratory diseases spread with Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC) and deterministic approach for constant total population size are analyzed and compared in this article. Intervention of medical treatment and use of medical mask included in to the model as a constant parameter to controlling influenza spreads. Equilibrium points and basic reproductive ratio as the endemic criteria and it level set depend on some variable are given analytically and numerically as a results from deterministic model analysis. Assuming total of human population is constant from deterministic model, number of infected people also analyzed with Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC) model. Since Δt → 0, we could assume that total number of infected people might change only from i to i + 1, i - 1, or i. Approximation probability of an outbreak with gambler's ruin problem will be presented. We find that no matter value of basic reproductive ℛ0, either its larger than one or smaller than one, number of infection will always tends to 0 for t → ∞. Some numerical simulation to compare between deterministic and DTMC approach is given to give a better interpretation and a better understanding about the models results.

  1. Optimal control for unknown discrete-time nonlinear Markov jump systems using adaptive dynamic programming.

    PubMed

    Zhong, Xiangnan; He, Haibo; Zhang, Huaguang; Wang, Zhanshan

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, we develop and analyze an optimal control method for a class of discrete-time nonlinear Markov jump systems (MJSs) with unknown system dynamics. Specifically, an identifier is established for the unknown systems to approximate system states, and an optimal control approach for nonlinear MJSs is developed to solve the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation based on the adaptive dynamic programming technique. We also develop detailed stability analysis of the control approach, including the convergence of the performance index function for nonlinear MJSs and the existence of the corresponding admissible control. Neural network techniques are used to approximate the proposed performance index function and the control law. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, three simulation studies, one linear case, one nonlinear case, and one single link robot arm case, are used to validate the performance of the proposed optimal control method.

  2. Optimal control for unknown discrete-time nonlinear Markov jump systems using adaptive dynamic programming.

    PubMed

    Zhong, Xiangnan; He, Haibo; Zhang, Huaguang; Wang, Zhanshan

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, we develop and analyze an optimal control method for a class of discrete-time nonlinear Markov jump systems (MJSs) with unknown system dynamics. Specifically, an identifier is established for the unknown systems to approximate system states, and an optimal control approach for nonlinear MJSs is developed to solve the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation based on the adaptive dynamic programming technique. We also develop detailed stability analysis of the control approach, including the convergence of the performance index function for nonlinear MJSs and the existence of the corresponding admissible control. Neural network techniques are used to approximate the proposed performance index function and the control law. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, three simulation studies, one linear case, one nonlinear case, and one single link robot arm case, are used to validate the performance of the proposed optimal control method. PMID:25420238

  3. HMM-DM: identifying differentially methylated regions using a hidden Markov model.

    PubMed

    Yu, Xiaoqing; Sun, Shuying

    2016-03-01

    DNA methylation is an epigenetic modification involved in organism development and cellular differentiation. Identifying differential methylations can help to study genomic regions associated with diseases. Differential methylation studies on single-CG resolution have become possible with the bisulfite sequencing (BS) technology. However, there is still a lack of efficient statistical methods for identifying differentially methylated (DM) regions in BS data. We have developed a new approach named HMM-DM to detect DM regions between two biological conditions using BS data. This new approach first uses a hidden Markov model (HMM) to identify DM CG sites accounting for spatial correlation across CG sites and variation across samples, and then summarizes identified sites into regions. We demonstrate through a simulation study that our approach has a superior performance compared to BSmooth. We also illustrate the application of HMM-DM using a real breast cancer dataset. PMID:26887041

  4. A Markov chain probability model to describe wet and dry patterns of weather at Colombo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sonnadara, D. U. J.; Jayewardene, D. R.

    2015-01-01

    The hypothesis that the wet and dry patterns of daily precipitation observed in Colombo can be modeled by a first order Markov chain model was tested using daily rainfall data for a 60-year period (1941-2000). The probability of a day being wet or dry was defined with respect to the status of the previous day. Probabilities were assumed to be stationary within a given month. Except for isolated single events, the model is shown to describe the observed sequence of wet and dry spells satisfactorily depending on the season. The accuracy of modeling wet spells is high compared to dry spells. When the model-predicted mean length of wet spells for each month was compared with the estimated values from the data set, a reasonable agreement between the model prediction and estimation is seen (within ±0.1). In general, the data show a higher disagreement for the months having longer dry spells. The mean annual duration of wet spells is 2.6 days while the mean annual duration of dry spells is 3.8 days. It is shown that the model can be used to explore the return periods of long wet and dry spells. We conclude from the study that the Markov chain of order 1 is adequate to describe wet and dry patterns of weather in Colombo.

  5. Lie Markov models with purine/pyrimidine symmetry.

    PubMed

    Fernández-Sánchez, Jesús; Sumner, Jeremy G; Jarvis, Peter D; Woodhams, Michael D

    2015-03-01

    Continuous-time Markov chains are a standard tool in phylogenetic inference. If homogeneity is assumed, the chain is formulated by specifying time-independent rates of substitutions between states in the chain. In applications, there are usually extra constraints on the rates, depending on the situation. If a model is formulated in this way, it is possible to generalise it and allow for an inhomogeneous process, with time-dependent rates satisfying the same constraints. It is then useful to require that, under some time restrictions, there exists a homogeneous average of this inhomogeneous process within the same model. This leads to the definition of "Lie Markov models" which, as we will show, are precisely the class of models where such an average exists. These models form Lie algebras and hence concepts from Lie group theory are central to their derivation. In this paper, we concentrate on applications to phylogenetics and nucleotide evolution, and derive the complete hierarchy of Lie Markov models that respect the grouping of nucleotides into purines and pyrimidines-that is, models with purine/pyrimidine symmetry. We also discuss how to handle the subtleties of applying Lie group methods, most naturally defined over the complex field, to the stochastic case of a Markov process, where parameter values are restricted to be real and positive. In particular, we explore the geometric embedding of the cone of stochastic rate matrices within the ambient space of the associated complex Lie algebra.

  6. Some Interesting Characteristics of Markov Chain Transition Matrices.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Egelston, Richard L.

    A Monte Carlo investigation of Markov chain matrices was conducted to create empirical distributions for two statistics created from the transition matrices. Curve fitting techniques developed by Karl Pearson were used to deduce if theoretical equations could be fit to the two sets of distributions. The set of distributions which describe the…

  7. Markov chain for estimating human mitochondrial DNA mutation pattern

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vantika, Sandy; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.

    2015-12-01

    The Markov chain was proposed to estimate the human mitochondrial DNA mutation pattern. One DNA sequence was taken randomly from 100 sequences in Genbank. The nucleotide transition matrix and mutation transition matrix were estimated from this sequence. We determined whether the states (mutation/normal) are recurrent or transient. The results showed that both of them are recurrent.

  8. Exploring Mass Perception with Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Andrew L.; Ross, Michael G.

    2009-01-01

    Several previous studies have examined the ability to judge the relative mass of objects in idealized collisions. With a newly developed technique of psychological Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling (A. N. Sanborn & T. L. Griffiths, 2008), this work explores participants; perceptions of different collision mass ratios. The results reveal…

  9. Decoherence free subspaces of a quantum Markov semigroup

    SciTech Connect

    Agredo, Julián; Fagnola, Franco; Rebolledo, Rolando

    2014-11-15

    We give a full characterisation of decoherence free subspaces of a given quantum Markov semigroup with generator in a generalised Lindbald form which is valid also for infinite-dimensional systems. Our results, extending those available in the literature concerning finite-dimensional systems, are illustrated by some examples.

  10. Discrete Latent Markov Models for Normally Distributed Response Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmittmann, Verena D.; Dolan, Conor V.; van der Maas, Han L. J.; Neale, Michael C.

    2005-01-01

    Van de Pol and Langeheine (1990) presented a general framework for Markov modeling of repeatedly measured discrete data. We discuss analogical single indicator models for normally distributed responses. In contrast to discrete models, which have been studied extensively, analogical continuous response models have hardly been considered. These…

  11. Envelopes of Sets of Measures, Tightness, and Markov Control Processes

    SciTech Connect

    Gonzalez-Hernandez, J.; Hernandez-Lerma, O.

    1999-11-15

    We introduce upper and lower envelopes for sets of measures on an arbitrary topological space, which are then used to give a tightness criterion. These concepts are applied to show the existence of optimal policies for a class of Markov control processes.

  12. Adiabatic condition and the quantum hitting time of Markov chains

    SciTech Connect

    Krovi, Hari; Ozols, Maris; Roland, Jeremie

    2010-08-15

    We present an adiabatic quantum algorithm for the abstract problem of searching marked vertices in a graph, or spatial search. Given a random walk (or Markov chain) P on a graph with a set of unknown marked vertices, one can define a related absorbing walk P{sup '} where outgoing transitions from marked vertices are replaced by self-loops. We build a Hamiltonian H(s) from the interpolated Markov chain P(s)=(1-s)P+sP{sup '} and use it in an adiabatic quantum algorithm to drive an initial superposition over all vertices to a superposition over marked vertices. The adiabatic condition implies that, for any reversible Markov chain and any set of marked vertices, the running time of the adiabatic algorithm is given by the square root of the classical hitting time. This algorithm therefore demonstrates a novel connection between the adiabatic condition and the classical notion of hitting time of a random walk. It also significantly extends the scope of previous quantum algorithms for this problem, which could only obtain a full quadratic speedup for state-transitive reversible Markov chains with a unique marked vertex.

  13. Weighted Markov Chains and Graphic State Nodes for Information Retrieval.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benoit, G.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses users' search behavior and decision making in data mining and information retrieval. Describes iterative information seeking as a Markov process during which users advance through states of nodes; and explains how the information system records the decision as weights, allowing the incorporation of users' decisions into the Markov…

  14. Psychotherapy as Stochastic Process: Fitting a Markov Chain Model to Interviews of Ellis and Rogers. University of Minnesota Office of Student Affairs Research Bulletin, Vol. 15, No. 18.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lichtenberg, James W.; Hummel, Thomas J.

    This investigation tested the hypothesis that the probabilistic structure underlying psychotherapy interviews is Markovian. The "goodness of fit" of a first-order Markov chain model to actual therapy interviews was assessed using a x squared test of homogeneity, and by generating by Monte Carlo methods empirical sampling distributions of selected…

  15. Revisiting the yeast PPR proteins--application of an Iterative Hidden Markov Model algorithm reveals new members of the rapidly evolving family.

    PubMed

    Lipinski, Kamil A; Puchta, Olga; Surendranath, Vineeth; Kudla, Marek; Golik, Pawel

    2011-10-01

    Pentatricopeptide repeat (PPR) proteins are the largest known RNA-binding protein family, and are found in all eukaryotes, being particularly abundant in higher plants. PPR proteins localize mostly to mitochondria and chloroplasts, and many were shown to modulate organellar genome expression on the posttranscriptional level. Although the genomes of land plants encode hundreds of PPR proteins, only a few have been identified in Fungi and Metazoa. As the current PPR motif profiles are built mainly on the basis of the predominant plant sequences, they are unlikely to be optimal for detecting fungal and animal members of the family, and many putative PPR proteins in these genomes may remain undetected. In order to verify this hypothesis, we designed a hidden Markov model-based bioinformatic tool called Supervised Clustering-based Iterative Phylogenetic Hidden Markov Model algorithm for the Evaluation of tandem Repeat motif families (SCIPHER) using sequence data from orthologous clusters from available yeast genomes. This approach allowed us to assign 12 new proteins in Saccharomyces cerevisiae to the PPR family. Similarly, in other yeast species, we obtained a 5-fold increase in the detection of PPR motifs, compared with the previous tools. All the newly identified S. cerevisiae PPR proteins localize in the mitochondrion and are a part of the RNA processing interaction network. Furthermore, the yeast PPR proteins seem to undergo an accelerated divergent evolution. Analysis of single and double amino acid substitutions in the Dmr1 protein of S. cerevisiae suggests that cooperative interactions between motifs and pseudoreversion could be the force driving this rapid evolution.

  16. Simultaneous evaluation of abstinence and relapse using a Markov chain model in smokers enrolled in a two-year randomized trial

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background GEE and mixed models are powerful tools to compare treatment effects in longitudinal smoking cessation trials. However, they are not capable of assessing the relapse (from abstinent back to smoking) simultaneously with cessation, which can be studied by transition models. Methods We apply a first-order Markov chain model to analyze the transition of smoking status measured every 6 months in a 2-year randomized smoking cessation trial, and to identify what factors are associated with the transition from smoking to abstinent and from abstinent to smoking. Missing values due to non-response are assumed non-ignorable and handled by the selection modeling approach. Results Smokers receiving high-intensity disease management (HDM), of male gender, lower daily cigarette consumption, higher motivation and confidence to quit, and having serious attempts to quit were more likely to become abstinent (OR = 1.48, 1.66, 1.03, 1.15, 1.09 and 1.34, respectively) in the next 6 months. Among those who were abstinent, lower income and stronger nicotine dependence (OR = 1.72 for ≤ vs. > 40 K and OR = 1.75 for first cigarette ≤ vs. > 5 min) were more likely to have relapse in the next 6 months. Conclusions Markov chain models allow investigation of dynamic smoking-abstinence behavior and suggest that relapse is influenced by different factors than cessation. The knowledge of treatments and covariates in transitions in both directions may provide guidance for designing more effective interventions on smoking cessation and relapse prevention. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT00440115 PMID:22770436

  17. Automatically inferred Markov network models for classification of chromosomal band pattern structures.

    PubMed

    Granum, E; Thomason, M G

    1990-01-01

    A structural pattern recognition approach to the analysis and classification of metaphase chromosome band patterns is presented. An operational method of representing band pattern profiles as sharp edged idealized profiles is outlined. These profiles are nonlinearly scaled to a few, but fixed number of "density" levels. Previous experience has shown that profiles of six levels are appropriate and that the differences between successive bands in these profiles are suitable for classification. String representations, which focuses on the sequences of transitions between local band pattern levels, are derived from such "difference profiles." A method of syntactic analysis of the band transition sequences by dynamic programming for optimal (maximal probability) string-to-network alignments is described. It develops automatic data-driven inference of band pattern models (Markov networks) per class, and uses these models for classification. The method does not use centromere information, but assumes the p-q-orientation of the band pattern profiles to be known a priori. It is experimentally established that the method can build Markov network models, which, when used for classification, show a recognition rate of about 92% on test data. The experiments used 200 samples (chromosome profiles) for each of the 22 autosome chromosome types and are designed to also investigate various classifier design problems. It is found that the use of a priori knowledge of Denver Group assignment only improved classification by 1 or 2%. A scheme for typewise normalization of the class relationship measures prove useful, partly through improvements on average results and partly through a more evenly distributed error pattern. The choice of reference of the p-q-orientation of the band patterns is found to be unimportant, and results of timing of the execution time of the analysis show that recent and efficient implementations can process one cell in less than 1 min on current standard

  18. A segmental hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM)-based diagnostics and prognostics framework and methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Ming; He, David

    2007-07-01

    Diagnostics and prognostics are two important aspects in a condition-based maintenance (CBM) program. However, these two tasks are often separately performed. For example, data might be collected and analysed separately for diagnosis and prognosis. This practice increases the cost and reduces the efficiency of CBM and may affect the accuracy of the diagnostic and prognostic results. In this paper, a statistical modelling methodology for performing both diagnosis and prognosis in a unified framework is presented. The methodology is developed based on segmental hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs). An HSMM is a hidden Markov model (HMM) with temporal structures. Unlike HMM, an HSMM does not follow the unrealistic Markov chain assumption and therefore provides more powerful modelling and analysis capability for real problems. In addition, an HSMM allows modelling the time duration of the hidden states and therefore is capable of prognosis. To facilitate the computation in the proposed HSMM-based diagnostics and prognostics, new forward-backward variables are defined and a modified forward-backward algorithm is developed. The existing state duration estimation methods are inefficient because they require a huge storage and computational load. Therefore, a new approach is proposed for training HSMMs in which state duration probabilities are estimated on the lattice (or trellis) of observations and states. The model parameters are estimated through the modified forward-backward training algorithm. The estimated state duration probability distributions combined with state-changing point detection can be used to predict the useful remaining life of a system. The evaluation of the proposed methodology was carried out through a real world application: health monitoring of hydraulic pumps. In the tests, the recognition rates for all states are greater than 96%. For each individual pump, the recognition rate is increased by 29.3% in comparison with HMMs. Because of the temporal

  19. Analysis and design of a second-order digital phase-locked loop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blasche, P. R.

    1979-01-01

    A specific second-order digital phase-locked loop (DPLL) was modeled as a first-order Markov chain with alternatives. From the matrix of transition probabilities of the Markov chain, the steady-state phase error of the DPLL was determined. In a similar manner the loop's response was calculated for a fading input. Additionally, a hardware DPLL was constructed and tested to provide a comparison to the results obtained from the Markov chain model. In all cases tested, good agreement was found between the theoretical predictions and the experimental data.

  20. New approach to the differentiation of marble samples using thermal analysis and chemometrics in order to identify provenance

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The possibility of applying a novel chemometric approach which could allow the differentiation of marble samples, all from different quarries located in the Mediterranean basin and frequently used in ancient times for artistic purposes, was investigated. By suggesting tentative or allowing to rule out unlikely attributions, this kind of differentiation could, indeed, be of valuable support to restorers and other professionals in the field of cultural heritage. Experimental data were obtained only using thermal analytical techniques: Thermogravimetry (TG), Derivative Thermogravimetry (DTG) and Differential Thermal Analysis (DTA). Results The extraction of kinetic parameters from the curves obtained using these thermal analytical techniques allowed Activation Energy values to be evaluated together with the logarithm of the Arrhenius pre-exponential factor of the main TG-DTG process. The main data thus obtained after subsequent chemometric evaluation (using Principal Components Analysis) have already proved useful in the identification the original quarry of a small number of archaeological marble finds. Conclusion One of the most evident advantages of the thermoanalytical – chemometric approach adopted seems to be that it allows the certain identification of an unknown find composed of a marble known to be present among the reference samples considered, that is, contained in the reference file. On the other hand with equal certainty it prevents the occurrence of erroneous or highly uncertain identification if the find being tested does not belong to the reference file considered. PMID:24982691