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Sample records for marmara sea inferred

  1. Development of a Tsunami Scenario Database for Marmara Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2016-04-01

    Due to the very short travel times in Marmara Sea, a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) has to be strongly coupled with the earthquake early warning system and should be supported with a pre-computed tsunami scenario database to be queried in near real-time based on the initial earthquake parameters. To address this problem, 30 different composite earthquake scenarios with maximum credible Mw values based on 32 fault segments have been identified to produce a detailed scenario database for all possible earthquakes in the Marmara Sea with a tsunamigenic potential. The bathy/topo data of Marmara Sea was prepared using GEBCO and ASTER data, bathymetric measurements along Bosphorus, Istanbul and Dardanelle, Canakkale and the coastline digitized from satellite images. The coarser domain in 90m-grid size was divided into 11 sub-regions having 30m-grid size in order to increase the data resolution and precision of the calculation results. The analyses were performed in nested domains with numerical model NAMIDANCE using non-linear shallow water equations. In order to cover all the residential areas, industrial facilities and touristic locations, more than 1000 numerical gauge points were selected along the coasts of Marmara Sea, which are located at water depth of 5 to 10m in finer domain. The distributions of tsunami hydrodynamic parameters were investigated together with the change of water surface elevations, current velocities, momentum fluxes and other important parameters at the gauge points. This work is funded by the project MARsite - New Directions in Seismic Hazard assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite (FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2, Grant 308417 - see NH2.3/GMPV7.4/SM7.7) and supported by SATREPS-MarDim Project (Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey) and JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). The authors would like to acknowledge Ms. Basak Firat for her assistance in

  2. Morphometric analysis of the Marmara Sea river basins, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elbaşı, Emre; Ozdemir, Hasan

    2014-05-01

    The drainage basin, the fundamental unit of the fluvial landscape, has been focus of research aimed at understanding the geometric characteristics of the master channel and its tributary network. This geometry is referred to as the basin morphometry and is nicely reviewed by Abrahams (1984). A great amount of research has focused on geometric characteristic of drainage basins, including the topology of the stream networks, and quantitative description of drainage texture, pattern, shape, and relief characteristics. Evaluation of morphometric parameters necessitates the analysis of various drainage parameters such as ordering of the various streams, measurement of basin area and perimeter, length of drainage channels, drainage density (Dd), stream frequency (Fs), bifurcation ratio (Rb), texture ratio (T), basin relief (Bh), Ruggedness number (Rn), time of concentration (Tc), hypsometric curve and integral (Hc and Hi) (Horton, 1932, Schumn, 1956, Strahler, 1957; Verstappen 1983; Keller and Pinter, 2002; Ozdemir and Bird, 2009). These morphometric parameters have generally been used to predict flood peaks, to assess sediment yield, and to estimate erosion rates in the basins. River basins of the Marmara Sea, has an area of approximately 40,000 sqkm, are the most important basins in Turkey based on their dense populations, industry and transportation systems. The primary aim of this study is to determine and analyse of morphometric characteristics of the Marmara Sea river basins using 10 m resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and to evaluate of the results. For these purposes, digital 10 m contour maps scaled 1:25000 and geological maps scaled 1:100000 were used as the main data sources in the study. 10 m resolution DEM data were created using the contour maps and then drainage networks and their watersheds were extracted using D8 pour point model. Finally, linear, areal and relief morphometries were applied to the river basins using Geographic Information Systems

  3. States of local stresses in the Sea of Marmara through the analysis of large numbers of small earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korkusuz Öztürk, Yasemin; Meral Özel, Nurcan; Özbakir, Ali Değer

    2015-12-01

    We invert the present day states of stresses for five apparent earthquake clusters in the Northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara. As the center of the Sea of Marmara is prone to a devastating earthquake within a seismic gap between these selected clusters, sensitive analyses of the understanding of the stress and strain characteristics of the region are all-important. We use high quality P and S phases, and P-wave first motion polarities from 398 earthquakes with ML ≥ 1.5 using at least 10 P-wave first motion polarities (FMPs), and a maximum of 1 inconsistent station, obtained from a total of 105 seismic stations, including 5 continuous OBSs. We report here on large numbers of simultaneously determined individual fault plane solutions (FPSs), and orientations of principal stress axes, which previously have not been determined with any confidence from the basins of the Sea of Marmara and prominent fault branches. We find NE-SW trending transtensional stress structures, predominantly in the earthquake clusters of the Eastern Tekirdağ Basin, Eastern Çınarcık Basin, Yalova and Gemlik areas. We infer that a dextral strike-slip deformation exist in the Eastern Ganos Offshore cluster. Furthermore, we analyze FPSs of four ML ≥ 4.0 earthquakes, occurred in seismically quiet regions after 1999 Izmit earthquake. Stress tensor solutions from a cluster of small events that we have obtained, correlate with FPSs of these moderate size events as a demonstration of the effectiveness of the small earthquakes in the derivation of states of local stresses. Consequently, our analyses of seismicity and large numbers of FPSs using the densest seismic network of Turkey contribute to better understanding of the present states of the stresses and seismotectonics of the Sea of Marmara.

  4. HYPODD Relocations and Stress Tensor Inversion Analyses of Local Earthquake Clusters in the Sea of Marmara

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korkusuz Öztürk, Yasemin; Meral Özel, Nurcan

    2016-04-01

    Extensional focal mechanism solutions are mostly observed even in the Central Marmara by this comprehensive research although the main Marmara Fault that is the western branch of the NAF, is dominated by a right lateral strike-slip regime. Marmara Region, a seismically very active area, is located at the western section of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). The 1912 Mürefte and 1999 Izmit earthquakes are the last devastating events of the western and eastern sections of this region, respectively. The region between the locations of these earthquakes, is prone to a large earthquake. Therefore, the analysis of the Sea of Marmara is significant. The main objective of this research is to determine earthquake hypocenters and focal mechanism solutions accurately, hence we obtain recent states of stresses for this region. Accordingly, this research aims to define branches of fault structures and its geometrical orientations in the Sea of Marmara. In this study, a cluster of events in the Central Marmara is analyzed using hypocenter program as a usual location technique. In addition, these events and other clustered events (Korkusuz Öztürk et al., 2015) are relocated using HYPODD relocation procedure. Even though NAF is mostly dominated by a right lateral strike slip fault, we found out many extensional source mechanisms. Also, from the comparison of relocation results of hypocenter and HYPODD programs, it is found out that most of the relocations have the same orientations and dipping angles of the segments of the main Marmara Fault are not clear. As a result, since we observe many normal faulting mechanisms in the Sea of Marmara, we expect to observe some deviations in orientations of vertical orientations of the fault segments comparing a dip-slip model. Therefore, this research will continue to clearly identify fault dip angles of main fault segments in Marmara Sea. Further, our sensitive relocation and stress analyses will make an important contribution to a

  5. Offshore seismicity in the western Marmara Sea, Turkey, revealed by ocean bottom observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamamoto, Yojiro; Takahashi, Narumi; Citak, Seckin; Kalafat, Doğan; Pinar, Ali; Gurbuz, Cemil; Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

    2015-09-01

    The faults' geometry and their seismic activity beneath the Marmara Sea have been under debate for a couple of decades. We used data recorded by three ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs) over a period of 3 months in 2014 to investigate the relationship of fault geometry to microseismicity under the western Marmara Sea in Turkey. We detected a seismic swarm at 13 to 20 km depth beneath the main Marmara fault (MMF), and the maximum depth of seismogenic zone was 25 km within the OBS observation area. These results provided evidence that the dip of the MMF is almost vertical and that the seismogenic zone in this region extends into the lower crust. Our analysis of past seismicity indicated that the seismic swarm we recorded is the most recent of an episodic series of seismic activity with an average recurrence interval of 2-3 years. The repetitive seismicity indicates that the MMF beneath the western Marmara Sea is coupled and that some of the accumulated strain is released every 2 to 3 years. Our study shows that OBS data can provide useful information about seismicity along the MMF, but more extensive studies using more OBSs deployed over a wider area are needed to fully understand the fault geometry and stick-slip behavior of faults under the Marmara Sea.

  6. Paleoceanographic and Paleoclimatologic Records of the Sea of Marmara during the Last 70 KA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cagatay, M. N.

    2015-12-01

    The Sea of Marmara is located between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea to which it is connected with the İstanbul (Bosporus) and Çanakkale (Dardanelles) straits having sill depths of 35 and 65 m below the present sea level, respectively. It is presently characterized by a two-way flow system consisting of the upper Black Sea and lower Mediterranean waters separated with a permanent halocline at -25 m. A 28.88 m long RV Marion Dufresne core MD01-2430 from the western high provides a continuous stratigraphic record for the last ca 70 ka. This record shows only one lacustrine-marine transition at ~ 12.6 cal ka BP over this period, indicating that the Sea of Marmara was under lacustrine conditions disconnected from the Mediterranean Sea from the beginning of Marine Isotope Stage 4 (MIS-4) to the early MIS-1. Soon after the reconnection, the Marmara sapropel started depositing under dysoxic-suboxic conditions during 12.33-5.7 cal ka BP. The periods of high inorganic (carbonate) and organic carbon production and burial in the Sea of Marmara correlate very closely with the Greenland Intertadials (GI) recorded in the NGRIP oxygen isotope and Black Sea Ca data sets. The two partly overlapping Ca peaks in the Sea of Marmara record corresponding to ~12.6 cal ka BP and 14.5 cal ka BP represent the authigenic carbonate deposition that resulted from the mixing of lacustrine Marmara and saline Mediterranean waters during the latest marine reconnection and the Greenland Interstadial-1 (GI-1) high productivity period, respectively. Low δ18O (down to -9‰) and high δ13C (+2.4‰) values of bulk carbonate during the GIs strongly suggest high input of fresh waters from the Black Sea and high organic productivity in the lacustrine Marmara under warm and humid conditions. Low "carbonate-free" K concentrations during the GIs suggest low detrital input in the Marmara "Lake", which in turn indicates low erosion rates in the catchment with a high vegetation density. In contrast, the

  7. The alien ascidian Styela clava now invading the Sea of Marmara (Tunicata: Ascidiacea)

    PubMed Central

    Çinar, Melih Ertan

    2016-01-01

    Abstract During the implementation of a large project aimed to investigate the benthic community structures of the Sea of Marmara, specimens of the invasive ascidian species Styela clava were collected on natural substrata (rocks) at 10 m depth at one locality (Karamürsel) in İzmit Bay. The specimens were mature, containing gametes, indicating that the species had become established in the area. The Sea of Marmara seems to provide suitable conditions for this species to survive and form proliferating populations. PMID:27047235

  8. Conceptual Design and Challenges for a Tsunami Early Warning System in the Sea of Marmara

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Necmioglu, Ocal

    2015-04-01

    In this study, while discussing associated challenges such as contradictions between earthquake and tsunami mitigation activities in the Marmara Region, I suggest a conceptual design for a tsunami warning system in the Sea of Marmara upon an improved version of an applicable model for the near-field tsunami early warning and emergency planning in the Mediterranean Area presented by Papadopoulos and Fokaefs (2013). Due to the extreme short arrival times as a result of the close proximity of main fault lines to the coastal regions, and existence of potential submarine landslide sources, any tsunami early warning system in the Sea of Marmara has to be strongly coupled with the earthquake warning system and stakeholders of the tsunami mitigation activities, such as local and regional components of disaster and emergency management and civil protection units. Since 1900, around 90,000 people have lost their lives in 76 earthquakes in Turkey, with a total affected population of around 7 million and direct losses of around 25 billion USD (Erdik, 2013). Based on a time-dependent model that includes coseismic and postseismic effects of the 1999 Izmit earthquake with Mw = 7.4, the probability of an earthquake with Mw > 7 in the Sea of Marmara near Istanbul, as a mega-financial-city in the heart of the Marmara Region with a population around 13 million and 1,000,000 buildings, is 35% to 70% in the next 30 years (Parsons, 2004). Historical records indicate around 30 tsunamis in the Sea of Marmara until today (Altinok et al., 2011). Among those, catastrophic earthquakes such as 1509, 1766 and 1894 resulted in considerable tsunamis and some damage. Latest tsunami observed in Marmara was due to a triggered submarine landslide of 1999 Izmit earthquake which led to reported run-up heights of 1-3 m in most places (Tinti et al., 2006). Hence, the add-on impact of a tsunami generated by the anticipated next earthquake in the Sea of Marmara should not be neglected.

  9. Moho depth and crustal thinning in the Marmara Sea region from gravity data inversion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kende, Julia; Henry, Pierre; Bayrakci, Gaye; Özeren, Sinan; Grall, Céline

    2016-04-01

    With a width comparable to the brittle crust thickness, the Sea of Marmara strike-slip basin appears as an intermediate case between two much studied end-member cases of basin-width-to-brittle-crust-thickness ratio: the Dead Sea and the Death Valley. But geophysical studies have shown evidences of at least 5 km of mantle uplift under the Marmara Sea, much larger than in the two other cases. We compiled data from reflection, refraction and tomography seismic studies to correct satellite and survey vessel gravity data (acquired during MARSITE cruise of Ifremer R/V Pourquoi Pas ?) from the effect of topography and sedimentary basins. Assuming that no other crustal mass heterogeneity affects the gravity measurement, we inverted the residual, with constraints from seismic studies, to calculate the topography of the Moho. The 3D model obtained shows a mantle uplift broadly correlated with the Marmara deep basins, but the crustal thinning spreads southward further than the basin limits, This is explained by ductile flow in the lower crust between a northern zone where the thinning is closely related to the Marmara Fault strike-slip basins and a southern zone where extension appears associated with older crustal detachment systems. Finally, we estimated the extension budget in the area during the Marmara Sea formation by comparing our 3D crust volume with an initial crust of constant thickness. The increase in surface area, 2100±300 km2, is compatible with present day GPS velocity field measurement assuming steady state and an initiation of extension in the area about 5 Myr ago. We conclude that although the zone went through tectonic reorganizations during the Pliocene as the North Anatolian Fault system propagated westward, the overall extension rate in the area could have been stable, or decreasing with time, and thus should be understood in a broader geodynamic framework comprising the Aegean subduction.

  10. Vertical distribution of marine cyanobacteria Synechococcus spp. in the Black, Marmara, Aegean, and eastern Mediterranean seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uysal, Zahit

    2006-08-01

    The vertical distributions of the unicellular cyanobacteria Synechococcus were studied in several highly contrasting seas: the Black Sea, Sea of Marmara, Aegean Sea, and Mediterranean Sea. Cell abundances varied significantly on both vertical and horizontal scales in all physically and spatially discrete water masses. Epifluorescence microscope cell counts from all seas clearly showed that majority of the population remains suspended in the surface-mixed layer and decreases gradually towards the base of the euphotic zone. Surface spatial distributions in the Black Sea were heterogeneous. Salinity, rather than temperature, seemed to have the greatest impact on the surface distribution of cells in this highly eutrophic sea. Changes in abundance in the mixed layer were small compared to the abrupt changes below the halocline, especially in the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara. In contrast to the Black Sea, the major population remains suspended above the depth of fluorescence maximum in the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean seas. Significant correlations ( r>P0.01) were observed between cell counts and physical and chemical parameters with depth in the Black Sea. In all seas, cells at subsurface chlorophyll- a maximum layer (SCML) reflected brighter and longer fluorescence than those present at the surface and below. Cell size derived from flow cytometry indicated the presence of larger cells at the surface mixed layer compared to those at depth.

  11. Recent Earthquake Breaks At The Sea of Marmara Pull-apart (North Anatolian Fault)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ucarkus, G.; Armijo, R.; Cakir, Z.; Schmidt, S.; Meyer, B.

    2008-12-01

    appears to result from leveling by significant sediment transport. So, on the average the sedimentation rate must be low. Under such conditions, only the last earthquake break can be preserved across the canyon floor. The break continues for some kilometers to the west and appears to end at the junction with Cinarcik basin normal faulting. It corresponds probably to the western end of the 1999 Izmit earthquake rupture and is consistent with an underwater rupture extension of 20-30 km westward as inferred from SAR interferometry. The direct observations of submarine scarps in the Sea of Marmara are critical to define barriers that have arrested past earthquakes. Incorporating the submarine scarp evidence modifies substantially our understanding of the current state of loading along the NAF next to Istanbul.

  12. Active geodynamics of the Marmara Sea region: How to combine all geophysical observations?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karabulut, Hayrullah; Schmittbuhl, Jean; Lengliné, Olivier; Bouchon, Michel

    2016-04-01

    The Marmara Sea region is presently hosting a major seismic gap along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). The region is located at the western termination of a unique sequence of large earthquakes initiated by the 1939 Mw 7.9 Erzincan earthquake and propagated westwards over 1000 km. Understanding the active geodynamics of the Marmara region is essential to assess the seismic behaviour of the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) and its related structures. We therefore have taken an initiative to give a comprehensive view of the regional lithosphere and the geomechanical response of the fault trying to combine all important geophysical observations. Using the broadband seismic data acquired between 2007-2015, we computed crustal seismic velocity distribution (from ambient noise tomography), crustal thickness map (from receiver function analysis) and uppermost mantle velocity distribution (from Pn tomography). The vast amount of data provides a good spatial coverage of the region and high resolution of images. Along the Main Marmara Fault (MMF), we present the seismicity below the Marmara Sea for the period the 2006-2015 to provide insights on the seismic response of the fault. The analysis shows that the seismic behaviour is varying along the fault. In addition, long term repeating earthquakes are searched along the MMF and found in the western part of the MMF. In the light of accurate and extensive observations, several open questions emerge from this compilation: Is the cumulated seismic moment released by the repeaters comparable to tectonic rate of the fault in the region? Are there any correlations between the rheology of the crust and the seismic response of the fault? Is there an influence of the fault asymmetry on the fault rupture?

  13. Long term seismic observation using ocean bottom seismographs in Marmara Sea, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, N.; Pinar, A.; Kalafat, D.; Yamamoto, Y.; Citak, S.; Comoglu, M.; Çok, Ö.; Ogutcu, Z.; Suvarikli, M.; Tunc, S.; Gurbuz, C.; Ozel, N.; Kaneda, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The North Anatolian Fault crosses the Marmara Sea with a direction of E-W. There are many large earthquakes repeatedly along the fault with a linkage each other. Due to recent large eastern Aegean earthquake with M6, the Marmara Sea is the "blank zone". Japan and Turkey have a SATREPS collaborative study to clarify the structural characters, construct fault models, simulate the strong motion and tsunami, evaluate these risks with hazard maps and educate disaster prevention for local governments and residents. Our activity is one of the most basic studies, and the objectives are to clarify hypocenter locations, monitor the move, and construct fault models referring seismic/magnetotelluric structures, geodetic nature and trenching works. The target area is from western Marmara Sea to the off Istanbul area along the north Anatolian Fault. We deployed ten Ocean Bottom Seismographs (OBSs) between the Tekirdag Basin and the Central Basin in September, 2014. Then, we added five Japanese OBSs and deployed them at the western end of the Marmara Sea and the eastern Central Basin to extend observed area in March, 2015. The OBS has a three-component velocity sensor with a natural frequency of 4.5 Hz and a hydrophone. Japanese team have clarified seismicity around Japan using the OBS. The magnitude of the detected events is 1.0-1.5. We retrieved all 15 OBSs in July, 2015 and deployed them again on the same locations after data copy and battery maintenance. We started OBS data analysis combined with land stations data. Now we detect events automatically using these data and succeeded detection of over one thousand around the north Anatolian Fault. The tentative results show heterogeneous seismicity. The western and central basins have relative high seismicity and the seismogenic zone becomes thicker rather than previous estimation. Then we will evaluate hypocenter locations with high resolution and discuss the shape of faults in each segment and their linkage.

  14. Design and challenges for a tsunami early warning system in the Marmara Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Necmioğlu, Öcal

    2016-01-01

    Since 1900, around 90,000 people have lost their lives in 76 earthquakes in Turkey, with a total affected population of around 7 million and direct losses of around 25 billion USD. Based on a time-dependent model that includes coseismic and post-seismic effects of the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake with moment magnitude Mw = 7.4, Parsons (J Geophys Res. 109, 2004) concluded that the probability of an earthquake with Mw > 7 in the Sea of Marmara near Istanbul is 35 to 70 % in the next 30 years. According to a 2011 study, an earthquake with Mw = 7.25 on the Main Marmara Fault is expected to heavily damage or destroy 2 to 4 % of around 1,000,000 buildings in Istanbul with a population around 13 million, with 9 to 15 % of the buildings receiving medium damage and 20 to 34 % of the buildings damaged lightly (Erdik, Science 341:72, 2013). In the absence of adequate post-earthquake assembly areas especially in the heavily urbanized Istanbul, it is evident that after a major earthquake, especially in the coastal parts of the city, citizens would be storming to landfill assembly and recreational areas. Besides earthquakes, around 30 tsunamis have been reported by Altınok et al. (Natural Hazards Earth System Science 11:273-293, 2011) in the Marmara Sea. Among those, catastrophic earthquakes such as 1509, 1766, and 1894 resulted in considerable tsunamis and some damage. The latest tsunami observed in Marmara was due to a triggered submarine landslide of the 1999 Mw = 7.4 Kocaeli earthquake which led to reported run-up heights of 1-3 m in most places (Tinti et al., Marine Geology 225:311-330, 2006). In this study, I propose a design for a tsunami warning system specific for the Marmara region that is strongly coupled with the earthquake early warning system (due to the short arrival times of tsunami) and stakeholders of the tsunami mitigation activities, such as local and regional components of disaster and emergency management and civil protection units, to ensure that the citizens

  15. Postglacial floodings of the Marmara Sea: molluscs and sediments tell the story

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Büyükmeriç, Yeşim

    2016-08-01

    The early Holocene marine flooding of the Black Sea has been the subject of intense scientific debate since the "Noah's Flood" hypothesis was proposed in the late 1990s. The chronology of the flooding is not straightforward because the connection between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea involves the intermediate Marmara Sea Basin via two sills (Dardanelles and Bosphorus). This study explores the chronology of late Pleistocene-Holocene flooding by examining sedimentary facies and molluscs from 24 gravity cores spanning shelf to slope settings in the southern Marmara Sea Basin. A late Pleistocene Ponto-Caspian (Neoeuxinian) mollusc association is found in 12 of the cores, comprising 14 mollusc species and dominated by brackish (oligohaline-lower mesohaline) endemic taxa (dreissenids, hydrobiids). The Neoeuxinian association is replaced by a Turritella- Corbula association at the onset of the Holocene. The latter is dominated by marine species, several of which are known to thrive under dysoxic conditions in muddy bottoms. This association is common in early Holocene intervals as well as sapropel intervals in younger Holocene strata. It is an indicator of low-salinity outflows from the Black Sea into the Marmara Sea that drive stratification. A marine Mediterranean association (87 species) represents both soft bottom and hard substrate faunas that lived in well-ventilated conditions and upper mesohaline-polyhaline salinities (ca. 25 psu). Shallower areas were occupied by hard substrate taxa and phytopdetritic communities, whereas deeper areas had soft bottom faunas. The middle shelf part of the northern Gemlik Gulf has intervals with irregular and discontinuous sedimentary structures admixed with worn Neoeuxinian and euryhaline Mediterranean faunas. These intervals represent reworking events (slumping) likely related to seismic activity rooted in the North Anatolian Fault system. The core data and faunas indicate an oscillating postglacial sea-level rise and

  16. Focal mechanism determinations of earthquakes along the North Anatolian fault, beneath the Sea of Marmara and the Aegean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakano, Masaru; Citak, Seckin; Kalafat, Doğan

    2015-09-01

    We determined the centroid moment tensor (CMT) solutions of earthquakes that occurred along the North Anatolian fault (NAF) beneath the Sea of Marmara and the Aegean Sea, using data obtained from Turkey's broad-band seismograph network. The CMT solution of the 2014 Aegean Sea earthquake ( Mw 6.9) represents a strike-slip fault, consistent with the geometry of the NAF, and the source-time function indicates that this event comprised several distinct subevents. Each subevent is considered to have ruptured a different fault segment. This observation indicates the existence of a mechanical barrier, namely a NAF segment boundary, at the hypocenter. CMT solutions of background seismicity beneath the Aegean Sea represent strike-slip or normal faulting along the NAF or its branch faults. The tensional axes of these events are oriented northeast-southwest, indicating a transtensional tectonic regime. Beneath the Sea of Marmara, the CMT solutions represent mostly strike-slip faulting, consistent with the motion of the NAF, but we identified a normal fault event with a tensional axis parallel to the strike of the NAF. This mechanism indicates that a pull-apart basin, marking a segment boundary of the NAF, is developing there. Because ruptures of a fault system and large earthquake magnitudes are strongly controlled by the fault system geometry and fault length, mapping fault segments along NAF can help to improve the accuracy of scenarios developed for future disastrous earthquakes in the Marmara region.

  17. Estimating shipping emissions in the region of the Sea of Marmara, Turkey.

    PubMed

    Deniz, Cengiz; Durmuşoğlu, Yalçin

    2008-02-01

    Ship emissions are significantly increasing globally and have remarkable impact on air quality on sea and land. These emissions contribute serious adverse health and environmental effects. Territorial waters, inland seas and ports are the regions most affected by ship emissions. As an inland sea the Sea of Marmara is an area that has too much ship traffic. Since the region of the Marmara is highly urbanized, emissions from ships affect human health and the overall environment. In this paper exhaust gas emissions from ships in the Sea of Marmara and the Turkish Straits are calculated by utilizing the data acquired in 2003. Main engine types, fuel types, operations types, navigation times and speeds of vessels are taken into consideration in the study. Total emissions from ships in the study area were estimated as 5,451,224 t y(-1) for CO(2), 111,039 t y(-1) for NO(x), 87,168 t y(-1) for SO(2), 20,281 t y(-1) for CO, 5801 t y(-1) for VOC, 4762 t y(-1) for PM. The shipping emissions in the region are equivalent to 11% of NO(x) 0.1% of CO and 0.12% of PM of the corresponding total emissions in Turkey. The shipping emissions in the area are 46% of NO(x), 25% of PM and 1.5% of CO of road traffic emissions in Turkey data between which and correspond to a higher level than aircraft emissions and rail emissions in Turkey.

  18. Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.

    2004-01-01

    New earthquake probability calculations are made for the Sea of Marmara region and the city of Istanbul, providing a revised forecast and an evaluation of time-dependent interaction techniques. Calculations incorporate newly obtained bathymetric images of the North Anatolian fault beneath the Sea of Marmara [Le Pichon et al., 2001; Armijo et al., 2002]. Newly interpreted fault segmentation enables an improved regional A.D. 1500-2000 earthquake catalog and interevent model, which form the basis for time-dependent probability estimates. Calculations presented here also employ detailed models of coseismic and postseismic slip associated with the 17 August 1999 M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to investigate effects of stress transfer on seismic hazard. Probability changes caused by the 1999 shock depend on Marmara Sea fault-stressing rates, which are calculated with a new finite element model. The combined 2004-2034 regional Poisson probability of M≥7 earthquakes is ~38%, the regional time-dependent probability is 44 ± 18%, and incorporation of stress transfer raises it to 53 ± 18%. The most important effect of adding time dependence and stress transfer to the calculations is an increase in the 30 year probability of a M ??? 7 earthquake affecting Istanbul. The 30 year Poisson probability at Istanbul is 21%, and the addition of time dependence and stress transfer raises it to 41 ± 14%. The ranges given on probability values are sensitivities of the calculations to input parameters determined by Monte Carlo analysis; 1000 calculations are made using parameters drawn at random from distributions. Sensitivities are large relative to mean probability values and enhancements caused by stress transfer, reflecting a poor understanding of large-earthquake aperiodicity.

  19. Measurement of natural and 137Cs radioactivity concentrations at Izmit Bay (Marmara Sea), Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Öksüz, I.; Güray, R. T.; Özkan, N.; Yalçin, C.; Ergül, H. A.; Aksan, S.

    2016-03-01

    In order to determine the radioactivity level at Izmit Bay Marmara Sea, marine sediment samples were collected from five different locations. The radioactivity concentrations of naturally occurring 238U, 232Th and 40K isotopes and also that of an artificial isotope 137Cs were measured by using gamma-ray spectroscopy. Preliminary results show that the radioactivity concentrations of 238U and 232Th isotopes are lower than the average worldwide values while the radioactivity concentrations of the 40K are higher than the average worldwide value. A small amount of 137Cs contamination, which might be caused by the Chernobyl accident, was also detected.

  20. Messinian Salinity Crisis and Course of Messinian Valleys in the Southern Shelf of the Sea of Marmara

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Çifçi, Günay; Barın, Burcu; Okay, Seda; Dondurur, Derman; Sorlien, Christopher; Suc, Jean-Pierre; Lericolais, Gilles

    2015-04-01

    The Messinian Salinity Crisis widely accepted as one of the most interesting events concerning the Mediterranean marine environment in the earth's geological history. Late Miocene tectonic changes in Mediterranean-Atlantic connectivity caused this huge event. The Sea of Marmara region has been improperly considered as a gateway between the Paratethys and Mediterranean since the Middle Miocene. However, it is a very important location for paleoclimatic research including the sea level change associated with the Messinian Salinity Crisis. Although considerable work has been carried out on the Messinian Salinity Crisis, very little has been reported on the status of the Marmara Sea during the Messinian. The case study includes the southern shelf and North İmrali Basin of the Marmara Sea, which is in the region located from the Çanakkale Strait (Dardanelles) to İmralı Island. The structural and stratigraphic interpretation were carried out using high resolution multi-channel seismic reflection (MCS) data which were collected with the facilities of Seismic Laboratory (SeisLab) in the Institute of Marine Sciences and Technology and R/V K. Piri Reis belonging to Dokuz Eylül University under the frame of several projects including TUBİTAK-NSF. Seismic profiles acquired in southern shelf of the Marmara Sea suggest that Messinian fluvial erosion has occurred at the base of all the main sub-basins. The southern shoreline has provided well-preserved evidence of Messinian fluvial erosion followed by the post-crisis marine reflooding. Interpretation is focused on the nature of erosion related to this acoustic basement and to a major angular unconformity that may merge with it. The basement and erosionalsurface are interpreted in the Çanakkale outletandon the southern shelf of the Sea of Marmara. A buried East-West to NW-SE channel cut into acoustic basement that may belong to the Messinian period was interpreted on the MCS data. For instance, based on interpretation of

  1. An improved earthquake catalogue in the Marmara Sea region, Turkey, using massive template matching

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matrullo, Emanuela; Lengliné, Olivier; Schmittbuhl, Jean; Karabulut, Hayrullah; Bouchon, Michel

    2016-04-01

    After the 1999 Izmit earthquake, the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) represents a 150 km unruptured segment of the North Anatolian Fault located below the Marmara Sea. One of the principal issue for seismic hazard assessment in the region is to know if the MMF is totally or partially locked and where the nucleation of the major forthcoming event is going to take place. The area is actually one of the best-instrumented fault systems in Europe. Since year 2007, various seismic networks both broadband, short period and OBS stations were deployed in order to monitor continuously the seismicity along the MMF and the related fault systems. A recent analysis of the seismicity recorded during the 2007-2012 period has provided new insights on the recent evolution of this important regional seismic gap. This analysis was based on events detected with STA/LTA procedure and manually picked P and S wave arrivals times (Schmittbuhl et al., 2015). In order to extend the level of details and to fully take advantage of the dense seismic network we improved the seismic catalog using an automatic earthquake detection technique based on a template matching approach. This approach uses known earthquake seismic signals in order to detect newer events similar to the tested one from waveform cross-correlation. To set-up the methodology and verify the accuracy and the robustness of the results, we initially focused in the eastern part of the Marmara Sea (Cinarcik basin) and compared new detection with those manually identified. Through the massive analysis of cross-correlation based on the template scanning of the continuous recordings, we construct a refined catalog of earthquakes for the Marmara Sea in 2007-2014 period. Our improved earthquake catalog will provide an effective tool to improve the catalog completeness, to monitor and study the fine details of the time-space distribution of events, to characterize the repeating earthquake source processes and to understand the mechanical state of

  2. OBS development for long term observation in the Marmara Sea, NW Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Narumi; Shimizu, Satoshi; Maekawa, Takuya; Kalafat, Dogan; Pinar, Ali; Citak, Seckin; Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

    2015-04-01

    We have carried out a collaboration study between Japan and Turkey since 2013, which is one of SATREPS projects, "Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in The Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey". The main objective of this project is to reduce risk brought by earthquakes and tsunamis. In particular, the North Anatolian Fault system runs through the Marmara sea and it is expected that the seismic gap exists there according to past seismic studies. The details of seismicity distribution in the Marmara Sea is, however, still insufficient to construct fault model along the active faults. Therefore, we prepare ten ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs) to realize long term observation. We aim to identify size and depth of seismogenic zones using micro seismicity. In addition, we need to cover relative broad area from off-shore Istanbul city to the western end of the Marmara Sea. To clear these conditions, OBS specifications we need are high dynamic range and low instrument noise to observe micro seismicity, low electrical consumption to realize long term observation of over one year, high cost performance to cover the broad area for OBS installation, low cost implementation, and good operability to treat by relatively small number of persons. All items, which are three components velocity sensor, batteries, a recorder, a GPS receiver, a transponder and its transducer to control OBS retrieval, a flasher and a beacon, are installed in the 17 inches glass sphere. The natural frequency of the velocity sensor is 4.5 Hz and the frequency range of our OBS is from 4.5 Hz to 250 Hz. Data sampling is selectable among 100 Hz, 250 Hz and 500 Hz. Because our OBS is deployed by free fall, accuracy of the OBS clock is essentially one of important factors, and it is less than 0.1 ppm. And the resolution of A/D conversion performed on the recorder is 24 bit and we keep the dynamic range of over 135 dB. These data is stored on a semiconductor memory and the capacity is over

  3. Detailed spatial distribution of microearthquakes beneath the Marmara Sea, Turkey, deduced from long-term ocean bottom observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamamoto, Yojiro; Takahashi, Narumi; Pinar, Ali; Kalafat, Doǧan; Citak, Seckin; Comoglu, Mustafa; Polat, Remzi; Çok, Özkan; Ogutcu, Zafer; Suvariklı, Murat; Tunc, Suleyman; Gürbüz, Cemil; Turhan, Fatih; Ozel, Nurcan; Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

    2016-04-01

    The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) crosses the Marmara Sea in E-W direction, accommodating about 25 mm/yr of right-lateral motion between Anatolia and the Eurasian plate. There are many large earthquakes along the 1500 km long NAF repeatedly occurred and interacted each other. The recent large northern Aegean earthquake with Mw=6.9 filled one of the last two seismic gaps on NAF that experienced extraordinary seismic moment release cycle during the last century and confirmed a remained blank zone in the Marmara Sea. However, this segment keeps its mystery due to its underwater location. Earthquake hazard and disaster mitigation studies in Marmara region are sensitive to detailed information on fault geometry and its stick-slip behavior beneath the western Marmara Sea. We have started ocean bottom seismographic observations to obtain the detailed information about fault geometry and its stick-slip behavior beneath the western Marmara Sea, as a part of the SATREPS collaborative project between Japan and Turkey namely "Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey". The target area spans from western Marmara Sea to offshore Istanbul along the NAF. In the beginning of the project, we deployed ten Ocean Bottom Seismographs (OBSs) between the Tekirdag Basin and the Central Basin (CB) in September 2014. Then, we added five Japanese OBSs and deployed them in the western end of the Marmara Sea and in the eastern CB to extend the observed area in March 2015. We retrieved all 15 OBSs in July 2015 and deployed them again in the same locations after data retrieve and battery maintenance. From continuous OBS records, we could detect more than 700 events near the seafloor trace of NAF during 10 months observation period whereas land-seismic network could detect less than 200 events. We estimated the micro-earthquake location using manual-picking arrival times incorporating station corrections. The tentative results show

  4. Geology and seismotectonics of the North-Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara: implications for seismic hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gasperini, Luca; Cedro, Vincenzo; Polonia, Alina; Cruise Party, Marmara

    2016-04-01

    Based on high-resolution multibeam and seismic reflection data recently collected and analysed in the frame of Marsite (New Directions in Seismic Hazard Assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite) EC FP7 Project, in conjunction with a large set of geophysical and geological data collected starting from 1999, we compiled a new morphotectonic map of the submerged part of the North-Anatolian Fault system (NAF) in the Sea of Marmara. Data analysis allowed us to recognize active fault segments and their activity at the scale of 10 ka, taking as stratigraphic reference the base of the latest marine ingression, which constitutes a clear marker in the sedimentary sequence of the Sea of Marmara. This is mainly due to the fact the Sea of Marmara was a fresh water lake during the Last Glacial Maximum, and switched to a marine environment when the global sea level reached to the -85 m relative to present day and crossed the Dardanelles sill during the transgression. The passage from lacustrine to marine environment is marked by a typical unconformity in high-resolution seismic profiles, which can be correlated over the entire Marmara basin. According to the average recurrence time for major earthquake along the NAF, the time interval of 10 ka should include several earthquake cycle and is representative of the seismotectonic behavior of the fault at geological time scales. Given the relatively high deformation rates relative to in relative to sediment supply, most active tectonic structures have a morphological expression at the seafloor. This allowed us to correlate deformations from a seismic section to the adjacent. Fault strands not affecting the Holocene sequence were considered inactive. Three types of deformation patterns were observed and classified: almost purely E-W oriented strike-slip segments; NE-SW oriented trans-pressional structures; NW-SE trending trans-tensional features. Segmentation of the so-called Main Marmara Fault in the Sea

  5. Last Glacial - Holocene stratigraphic development at the Marmara Sea exit of the Bosphorus Strait, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Köprülü, Kerem; Alpar, Bedri; Vardar, Denizhan

    2016-03-01

    High resolution Chirp and Sparker data allowed definition and mapping of distinct seismic units in the shallow sediment record (~100 ms) acquired from the southern exit of the Bosphorus Strait; a dynamic depositional environment. The bottommost unit observed in the Chirp data (unit-3) is made up of marine-lacustrine sediments thinning seaward and onlaps the basement rocks which are represented by folded strata in the Sparker data, possibly lower to middle Pleistocene age. It is overlain by a series of prograding deposits along the shelf (unit-2) referring to sediment input from the northern sector depending on the water levels of the paleo Marmara lake's during MIS 3. The uppermost deposits (unit-1) close to the Bosphorus Strait were represented by three separate subunits, unlike to relatively thin drape of sediments observed at the other places in the surrounding regions. The detailed definition of these subunits deduced from the closely-spaced reflection profiles and available radiocarbon ages helped to explain the history of the latest stratigraphic development depending on the connections between the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara. In addition to the previously proposed major conduits, which controlled the sedimentary deposition at the southern exit of the Bosphorus, namely the Bosphorus Strait and Kurbağalıdere River, another submarine sedimentary pathway at the eastern bank of the strait's channel seems to have delivered sediments directly into the basin.

  6. Installation and Initial Results of Borehole Strainmeters around the Marmara Sea in Turkey.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mencin, David; Bohnhoff, Marco; Ozener, Haluk; Mattioli, Glen; Bilham, Roger; Johnson, Wade; Gottlieb, Mike; Van Boskirk, Elizabeth; Aracel, Digdem; Bulut, Fatih; Bal, Osman

    2016-04-01

    Twice in the past 1000 years a sequence of damaging earthquakes has propagated during the course of a few decades along the North Anatolian fault (NAF) in Turkey towards Istanbul, with the final earthquake in the sequence catastrophically destroying the city. This occurred most recently in 1509 when the population was only about 200,000 yet ten thousand people died. The population of greater Istanbul is now 20 million, building stock more fragile, and the last earthquake of the current westward propagating sequence is considered geologically imminent. An opportunity to enhance the detection capability of a suite of deep seismometers installed near Istanbul has arisen, that will permit us to observe, characterize, and possibly predict the moment of imminent failure along the NAF, as well as monitor the tectonic processes leading to this failure. As an augmentation of the Geophysical Observatory at the North Anatolian Fault (GONAF), UNAVCO installed two continuous creepmeters and six borehole strainmeters between July 2014 and October 2015 into boreholes provided by the several international sponsors, including NSF, GFZ, AFAD and Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory. The entire geophysical sensor network is collectively referred to as GeoGONAF. The borehole strainmeters enhance the ability of the scientific instrumentation to monitor ultra-slow process near the probable source zone of the Mw>7 earthquake that is soon expected beneath the Marmara Sea. The strainmeters and creepmeters allow us to make geodetic observations of this segment of the fault before, during and after a large earthquake, which combined with the seismic data from GONAF will provide valuable data for understanding earthquake processes. Installed instruments have already recorded both local and teleseismic events and observed creep events on the on-shore segments of the NAF to the East of the Marmara. In addition we have seen typical hydrological loading signals associated with normal modes of

  7. The sedimentary records of Holocene environmental changes from the Central High of the Sea of Marmara

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Filikci, Betul; Çağatay, Namık; Kadir Eriş, Kürşad; Akyol, Mustafa; Yalamaz, Burak; Uçarkuş, Gülsen; Henry, Pierre

    2015-04-01

    The Sea of Marmara (SoM) is located between the Aegean Sea and the Black Sea, to which it is connected via the Istanbul (Bosphorus) and Canakkale (Dardanelles) straits having sill depths of 65 and 35 m, respectively. It has a two-way water mass exchange with a permanent pycnocline located at 20-25 m water depth. With the objective of determining Holocene paleoenvironmental changes, we studied a 8.36 m-long piston core recovered from the Central High of the SoM at a water depth of 835 m, using multiproxy analyses such as total organic and inorganic carbon, high resolution µ-XRF core scanner analysis, grain size, magnetic susceptibility and density. A 2 cm-thick tephra layer with high K and Zr and relatively low magnetic susceptibility occurs at 2.1 meter below sea floor (mbsf), which is correlated with the Avellino (Somma-Vesuvius, Italy) eruption dated at 3.9 ka BP, according to the previous studies. Using this age and assuming a uniform sedimentation rate, the base of the core dates back to ca 8 ka BP. The core includes organic-rich (sapropelic) sediments with 1.5 % to 2.2%) in its top 3.5 m and bottom 1 m. Sapropelic layers are olive green and in part laminated, and contain occasional reddish brown spots and laminae formed by oxidation of iron monosulphides. The core also contains some few mm- to cm-thick sandy-silty mass-flow units below 2.4 mbsf, some of which could have been triggered by the earthquake activity on the Central High segment of the North Anatolian Fault, just a few km away from the core location. Variations in Ca-Ti ratio suggest millennial-scale climatic changes during the Holocene. Keywords: Sea of Marmara, Holocene paleoenvironmental records, tephra, turbidites, TOC analysis, XRF analysis, physical properties.

  8. Authigenic carbonate crusts and chimneys along the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yıldız, Güliz; Namık Çaǧatay, M.

    2016-04-01

    The Sea of Marmara is located on the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) fault zone that is a major continental transform plate boundary. It has ca. 1250 m-deep Tekirdag, Central and Cinarcik basins that are separated by two NE-SW trending Central and Western Highs. Extensive cold seeps occur along the active fault segments of the NAF in the deep basins and highs, which are associated with authigenic carbonate crusts, carbonate chimneys and mounds, black sulphidic sediments, and local gas hydrates and oil seepage. The cold seep sites were observed and sampled during the Nautile submersible and Victor 6000 Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) dives carried out during MARNAUT and MARSITE cruises in 2007 and 2014, respectively. Here, we report the mineralogical and stable isotopic composition of the authigenic carbonates and discuss their environmental conditions and mechanisms of formation. The carbonate crusts range up to 5 cm in thickness and the chimneys and mounds are up to 2 m high. Some chimneys are active emitting fresh to brackish water at ambient bottom water temperatures (˜ 14° C). The carbonate crusts occur as a pavements, and are commonly covered with black sulphidic sediments and bacterial mats that accommodate a rich chemosynthetic community of bivalves, sea urchins and marine annelid worms (Polychaeta). The authigenic carbonates commonly consist mainly of aragonite, but in a few instances contain subequal amounts of aragonite and calcite. High Mg-calcite is usually a minor to trace component, except in one sample in which it is present as a cement of mudstone. In the active methane emission zones, the sulphate/methane boundary occurs at or close to the seafloor, whereas elsewhere in the Sea of Marmara, the same boundary is located at 2-5 m below the seafloor. This, together with very light stable carbon isotope values (δ13C=-29.8 to - 46.3 ‰ V-PDB), indicates that the anaerobic oxidation of high methane flux emitted from the active faults is the major process

  9. Authigenic carbonate crusts and chimneys along the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yıldız, Güliz; Namık Çaǧatay, M.

    2016-04-01

    The Sea of Marmara is located on the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) fault zone that is a major continental transform plate boundary. It has ca. 1250 m-deep Tekirdag, Central and Cinarcik basins that are separated by two NE-SW trending Central and Western Highs. Extensive cold seeps occur along the active fault segments of the NAF in the deep basins and highs, which are associated with authigenic carbonate crusts, carbonate chimneys and mounds, black sulphidic sediments, and local gas hydrates and oil seepage. The cold seep sites were observed and sampled during the Nautile submersible and Victor 6000 Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) dives carried out during MARNAUT and MARSITE cruises in 2007 and 2014, respectively. Here, we report the mineralogical and stable isotopic composition of the authigenic carbonates and discuss their environmental conditions and mechanisms of formation. The carbonate crusts range up to 5 cm in thickness and the chimneys and mounds are up to 2 m high. Some chimneys are active emitting fresh to brackish water at ambient bottom water temperatures (˜ 14° C). The carbonate crusts occur as a pavements, and are commonly covered with black sulphidic sediments and bacterial mats that accommodate a rich chemosynthetic community of bivalves, sea urchins and marine annelid worms (Polychaeta). The authigenic carbonates commonly consist mainly of aragonite, but in a few instances contain subequal amounts of aragonite and calcite. High Mg-calcite is usually a minor to trace component, except in one sample in which it is present as a cement of mudstone. In the active methane emission zones, the sulphate/methane boundary occurs at or close to the seafloor, whereas elsewhere in the Sea of Marmara, the same boundary is located at 2-5 m below the seafloor. This, together with very light stable carbon isotope values (δ13C=-29.8 to - 46.3 ‰ V-PDB), indicates that the anaerobic oxidation of high methane flux emitted from the active faults is the major process

  10. Integrative study of a new cold-seep mussel (Mollusca: Bivalvia) associated with chemosynthetic symbionts in the Marmara Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ritt, Bénédicte; Duperron, Sébastien; Lorion, Julien; Sara Lazar, Cassandre; Sarrazin, Jozée

    2012-09-01

    Recently, small Idas-like mussels have been discovered living on carbonate crusts associated with cold-seeps in the Marmara Sea. These mussels, here referred to as Idas-like nov. sp., differ morphologically and genetically from another species identified as Idas aff. modiolaeformis, living in the same type of ecosystem in the Nile Deep-Sea Fan (eastern Mediterranean Sea). A phylogenetic analysis confirms the distinction between the two species, which belong to highly divergent lineages. Carbon stable isotope values, as well as the detection of thiotroph-related bacteria in the gill tissue, support the presence of a symbiotic, thiotroph-derived nutrition. In contrast, Idas aff. modiolaeformis displays six different types of symbionts. Finally our size-frequency data suggest that the recruitment is continuous in the examined area. The present study extends the documented distribution of symbiont-bearing mussels to the Marmara Sea, and contributes to the characterisation of biological communities in this recently explored area.

  11. Microseismicity at the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara offshore Istanbul, NW Turkey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bulut, Fatih; Bohnhoff, Marco; Ellsworth, William L.; Aktar, Mustafa; Dresen, Georg

    2009-01-01

    The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) below the Sea of Marmara forms a “seismic gap” where a major earthquake is expected to occur in the near future. This segment of the fault lies between the 1912 Ganos and 1999 İzmit ruptures and is the only NAFZ segment that has not ruptured since 1766. To monitor the microseismic activity at the main fault branch offshore of Istanbul below the Çınarcık Basin, a permanent seismic array (PIRES) was installed on the two outermost Prince Islands, Yassiada and Sivriada, at a few kilometers distance to the fault. In addition, a temporary network of ocean bottom seismometers was deployed throughout the Çınarcık Basin. Slowness vectors are determined combining waveform cross correlation and P wave polarization. We jointly invert azimuth and traveltime observations for hypocenter determination and apply a bootstrap resampling technique to quantify the location precision. We observe seismicity rates of 20 events per month for M < 2.5 along the basin. The spatial distribution of hypocenters suggests that the two major fault branches bounding the depocenter below the Çınarcık Basin merge to one single master fault below ∼17 km depth. On the basis of a cross-correlation technique we group closely spaced earthquakes and determine composite focal mechanisms implementing recordings of surrounding permanent land stations. Fault plane solutions have a predominant right-lateral strike-slip mechanism, indicating that normal faulting along this part of the NAFZ plays a minor role. Toward the west we observe increasing components of thrust faulting. This supports the model of NW trending, dextral strike-slip motion along the northern and main branch of the NAFZ below the eastern Sea of Marmara.

  12. Tephra record from the Sea of Marmara for the last 70 ka and its paleoceanographic implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cagatay, M.; Wulf, S.; Guichard, F.; Ozmaral, A.; Sancar; Akçer-Ön, S.; Henry, P.; Gasperini, L.

    2013-12-01

    Sea of Marmara (SoM) is a gateway between the Mediterraean and Black seas, and a tectonically active basin located on a transform plate boundary. Tephra record in the SoM is therefore very important for dating palaeoceanographic, paleoclimatic and tectonic events. We report three tephra units in cores from the SoM extending back to ca 70 ka BP and including an upper marine and a lower lacustrine units separated by a 12 ka (uncalib.) boundary. The uppermost tephra unit is up to 8 mm thick layer in the marine unit. It is heterogenous phonolitic with high total alkali content of 12.4-15.7 wt % and K2O/Na2O of 0.9 to 1.2. The middle and lower tephra layers occur in the lacustrine unit in ca 29 m-long Core MD-01-2430. The middle tephra (MT-1) is a 70 mm-thick homogeneously rhyolitic layer. The lower tephra (MT-2) is 140 mm thick and has a phonolitic-trachytic composition with CaO content of 1.7-1.9 wt % and bimodal K2O/Na2O of 1.0-1.4. Using their geochemical composition and stratigraphic analysis, we assign the tephra units, from top to bottom, to Vesuvius AP2 Pumice, Santorini Cape Riva and Campanian Ignimbrite, which have been previously dated at 3.5 ka BP, 21.95 ka BP, and 39.3 ka BP (all calender ka). The continuous sedimentary record in the Core MD-01-2430 covering the last ca 70 ka indicates that the SoM was lacustrine, disconnected from the Mediterraean Sea during MIS4, MIS3 and most of MIS2. This implies that the sill depth of the Çanakkale Strait (Dardanelles) was shallower than the present-day -65 m sill depth during MIS3 and MIS4. Figure 1: Morphotectonic map of the Sea of Marmara showing location of the studied cores (red stars). Figure 2: Geochemical biplots of tephra glass composition. a) Total alkali silica diagram b) FeO versus total alkalies for allocating cryptotephras from core MNTKS34 and ML01 to the AP2 tephra from Vesuvius. c) FeO versus CaO for correlating tephra MT1 with the Y-2 tephra from Santorini. d) SiO2 versus CaO for discriminating the

  13. Late glacial-Holocene shelf evolution of the Sea of Marmara west of Istanbul

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karakilcik, Hatice; Unlugenc, Ulvi Can; Okyar, Mahmut

    2014-12-01

    We present an investigation the Late Quaternary seismic stratigraphy of the shelf area of the northern the Sea of Marmara extending from its northern coast (between Silivri and Kumkapı) to approximately 100 m depth, using shallow high-resolution seismic reflection data along 73 N-S and 15 E-W lines. Seismic sequence analysis is used to identify the depositional systems, associated sedimentation conditions, and relative sea level changes. Seismic stratigraphic interpretations indicate the presence of four distinct seismic units (SU I, II, III and IV) underlying the shelf area. Seismic units are bounded by erosional unconformities overlying an acoustic basement. Seismic unit I constitutes the acoustic basement (AB), which is characterized by chaotic, subparallel, and wavy reflections that out locally off the rocky shorelines and along the crests of the positive structures where the sedimentary cover is absent. Seismic unit II is interpreted to represent the pre-Holocene deposits and exhibits subparallel reflections. Seismic unit II is interpreted to have been subjected to sub-aerial erosion during the Last Glacial Maximum. Seismic unit III-IV are interpreted to have formed during the Holocene (Flandrian) transgression and have parallel/subparallel internal reflection patterns. The top of seismic unit IV forms the present-day sea floor. As a result of the presence of fill, seismic facies within seismic unit IV reflect differences in depositional processes. The bathymetry of the study area has a close relation with sedimentation dynamics, tectonic, wave and flow dynamics and palaeotopograpy. Particularly, sudden dip changes determined at the shelf area might have been due to fault and/or fault systems that control the bottom topography. Seismic activity in the Sea of Marmara region has a key role the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) affecting on the tectonic activity of the study area. The last two earthquakes in İzmit and Duzce, Turkey, in

  14. Seismotectonics of the Armutlu peninsula (Marmara Sea, NW Turkey) from geological field observation and regional moment tensor inversion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinscher, J.; Krüger, F.; Woith, H.; Lühr, B. G.; Hintersberger, E.; Irmak, T. S.; Baris, S.

    2013-11-01

    The Armutlu peninsula, located in the eastern Marmara Sea, coincides with the western end of the rupture of the 17 August 1999, İzmit MW 7.6 earthquake which is the penultimate event of an apparently westward migrating series of strong and disastrous earthquakes along the NAFZ during the past century. We present new seismotectonic data of this key region in order to evaluate previous seismotectonic models and their implications for seismic hazard assessment in the eastern Marmara Sea. Long term kinematics were investigated by performing paleo strain reconstruction from geological field investigations by morphotectonic and kinematic analysis of exposed brittle faults. Short term kinematics were investigated by inverting for the moment tensor of 13 small to moderate recent earthquakes using surface wave amplitude spectra. Our results confirm previous models interpreting the eastern Marmara Sea Region as an active transtensional pull-apart environment associated with significant NNE-SSW extension and vertical displacement. At the northern peninsula, long term deformation pattern did not change significantly since Pliocene times contradicting regional tectonic models which postulate a newly formed single dextral strike slip fault in the Marmara Sea Region. This area is interpreted as a horsetail splay fault structure associated with a major normal fault segment that we call the Waterfall Fault. Apart from the Waterfall Fault, the stress strain relation appears complex associated with a complicated internal fault geometry, strain partitioning, and reactivation of pre-existing plane structures. At the southern peninsula, recent deformation indicates active pull-apart tectonics constituted by NE-SW trending dextral strike slip faults. Earthquakes generated by stress release along large rupture zones seem to be less probable at the northern, but more probable at the southern peninsula. Additionally, regional seismicity appears predominantly driven by plate boundary

  15. Annual cycle of zooplankton abundance and species composition in Izmit Bay (the northeastern Marmara Sea)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isinibilir, Melek; Kideys, Ahmet E.; Tarkan, Ahmet N.; Yilmaz, I. Noyan

    2008-07-01

    The monthly abundance, biomass and taxonomic composition of zooplankton of Izmit Bay (the northeastern Marmara Sea) were studied from October 2001 to September 2002. Most species within the zooplankton community displayed a clear pattern of succession throughout the year. Generally copepods and cladocerans were the most abundant groups, while the contribution of meroplankton increased at inner-most stations and dominated the zooplankton. Both species number ( S) and diversity ( H') were positively influenced by the increase in salinity of upper layers ( r = 0.30 and r = 0.31, p < 0.001, respectively), while chlorophyll a was negatively affected ( r = -0.36, p < 0.001). Even though Noctiluca scintillans had a significant seasonality ( F11,120 = 8.45, p < 0.001, ANOVA), abundance was not related to fluctuations in temperature and only chlorophyll a was adversely correlated ( r = -0.35, p < 0.001). In general, there are some minor differences in zooplankton assemblages of upper and lower layers. A comparison of the species composition and abundance of Izmit Bay with other Black Sea bays reveals a high similarity between them.

  16. Fault Characterization in the Sea of Marmara (Turkey) Using OBS and Land Seismic Stations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinar, Ali; Yamamoto, Yojiro; Comoglu, Mustafa; Polat, Remzi; Turhan, Fatih; Takahashi, Narumi; Kalafat, Dogan; Citak, Seckin

    2016-04-01

    The fault segments of the North Anatolian fault (NAF) occurring between Tekirdag basin and Kumburgaz basin are investigated using 15 Ocean Bottom Seismic (OBS) stations. The OBS stations were deployed closely around the fault trace of NAF. During the observation period from September, 2014 until July, 2015 more than one thousand microearthquakes were determined. No uniform seismicity pattern was observed along strike and along dip of the fault segments in an area spanning 100 km from East to West of Marmara Sea. The western fault segments exhibit relatively higher and deeper seismic activity while the eastern segment show shallower and relatively lower seismic activity. Integrating the first motion polarity data from the land based stations of Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) with the polarity data acquired from the OBS stations the focal mechanisms of 173 micro-earthquakes were determined. Most of the fault plane solutions indicate predominantly strike-slip mechanism. Several clusters of events are identified along the E-W extending NAF. We derive a focal mechanism for the individual events whenever the number of the polarities are sufficient. In addition, simultaneous inversion of the polarities in a cluster are done to retrieve a stress tensor along with focal mechanisms of the individual events in a cluster. A unique cluster of focal mechanisms was obtained from the events taking place in Western High (WH) region located between Tekirdag Basin (TB) and Central Basin (CB). Several features of this cluster are noticeable; 1) the site is the most seismically active part in Marmara Sea, 2) the site is the locus of the deepest events in the Sea of Marmara, 3) the shallower part of this segment is seismically less active, 4) two subgroups of P-axes of focal mechanisms exist; one oriented NW-SE and other oriented in N-S direction despite the proximity of the location of the events giving clues on the faulting dynamics. The N-S oriented P

  17. Rapid kinematic finite-fault inversion for an Mw 7+ scenario earthquake in the Marmara Sea: an uncertainty study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diao, Faqi; Wang, Rongjiang; Aochi, Hideo; Walter, Thomas R.; Zhang, Yong; Zheng, Yong; Xiong, Xiong

    2016-02-01

    During the 20th century, a series of devastating earthquakes occurred along the North Anatolian Fault. These generally propagated westwards, such that the main fault segment beneath the Marmara Sea appears as a seismic gap. For the nearby megacity Istanbul, rapid seismic hazard assessment is currently of great importance. A key issue is how a strong earthquake in the Marmara Sea can be characterized reliably and rapidly using the seismic network currently operating in this region. In order to investigate this issue, several scenario earthquakes on the main Marmara fault are simulated through dynamic modelling based on a 3-D structure model. The synthetic datasets are then used to reconstruct the source processes of the causal events with a recently developed iterative deconvolution and stacking method based on simplified 1-D Earth structure models. The results indicate that, by using certain a priori information about the fault geometry and focal mechanism, the tempo-spatial slip patterns of the input scenarios can be well resolved. If reasonable uncertainties are considered for the a priori information, the key source parameters, such as moment magnitude, fault size and slip centroid, can still be estimated reliably, while the detailed tempo-spatial rupture pattern may reveal significant variations. To reduce the effect induced by employing the inaccurate event location and focal mechanism, a new approach for absolute source imaging is proposed and tested. We also investigate the performance of the new source imaging tool for near real-time source inversion under the current network configuration in the Marmara Sea region. The results obtained are meaningful particularly for developing the rapid earthquake response system for the megacity Istanbul.

  18. Rapid kinematic finite-fault inversion for an Mw 7+ scenario earthquake in the Marmara Sea: an uncertainty study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diao, Faqi; Wang, Rongjiang; Aochi, Hideo; Zhang, Yong; Walter, Thomas R.

    2016-04-01

    During the last century, the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) generated a series of devastating earthquakes, which generally propagated westwards, such that the main Marmara fault segment as a seismic gap. For the nearby megacity Istanbul, rapid seismic hazard assessment is currently of great importance. A key issue is how a strong earthquake in the Marmara Sea can be characterized reliably and rapidly using the seismic network currently operating in this region. In the frame of the MARsite project, several scenario earthquakes on the main Marmara fault are simulated through dynamic modelling based on a 3-D structure model. The synthetic datasets are then used to reconstruct the source processes of the causal events with a recently developed iterative deconvolution and stacking method based on simplified 1-D Earth structure models. The results indicate that, by using certain a priori information about the fault geometry and focal mechanism, the tempo-spatial slip patterns of the input scenarios can be well resolved robustly. If reasonable uncertainties are considered for the a priori information, the key source parameters, such as moment magnitude, fault size and slip centroid, can still be estimated robustly, while the detailed tempo-spatial rupture pattern may reveal significant variations. To reduce the effect induced by employing the inaccurate event location and focal mechanism, a new approach for absolute source imaging is proposed and tested for near real-time source inversion under the current network configuration in the Marmara Sea region. The results obtained are meaningful particularly for developing the rapid earthquake response system for the megacity Istanbul.

  19. Tsunami Induced Sedimentation in Ports; A Case Study in Haydarpasa Harbor, Marmara Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yalçıner, A. C.; Kian, R.; Velioglu, D.; Zaytsev, A.

    2015-12-01

    The movement of sea bottom or ground sediment material by tsunami cause erosion, deposition and hence bathymetry and topogrphy changes. The unexpected depth decrease at some parts of the enclosed basins and harbors may result in lack of movements of vessels. In order to understand the sediment movement inside the enclosed basins, Haydarpasa port in the sea of Marama is selected as a case study to understand the motion of tsunamis inside the port and identify their effects on harbor functions. The highest populated mega city Istanbul, located at north coast of the Sea of Marmara is one of the main centers of major economic activities in the region. In the study, the spatial and temporal changes of main tsunami parameters are investigated and their adverse effects on harbor performance are identified by analyzing the critical tsunami parameters (water elevation, current speed and momentum fluxes) in the port. Furthermore, the morphological changes due to tsunami induced flows are also considered. The morphological changes due to tsunamis can be governed by bathymetry and topography, tsunami current and the characteristics of ground material. Rouse number is one of the indicators to describe the initiation of sediment motion and transport modes under the flow. Therefore the morphological changes can be monitored by monitoring the change of the Rouse number. In this study the spatial and temporal change of Rouse number and hence modes of sediment transport in Haydarpasa port during a tsunami is investigated. Finally the functional loss of the port and the necessary strategies for reduction of tsunami impact and increase of resilience are also discussed. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe)".

  20. Microbial methane turnover at Marmara Sea cold seeps: a combined 16S rRNA and lipid biomarker investigation.

    PubMed

    Chevalier, N; Bouloubassi, I; Birgel, D; Taphanel, M-H; López-García, P

    2013-01-01

    Lipid biomarkers and their stable carbon isotopic composition, as well as 16S rRNA gene sequences, were investigated in sediment cores from active seepage zones in the Sea of Marmara (Turkey) located on the active North Anatolian Fault, to assess processes associated with methane turnover by indigenous microbial communities. Diagnostic (13) C-depleted archaeal lipids of anaerobic methane oxidizers were only found in one core from the South of Çinarcik Basin and consist mainly of archaeol, sn-2 hydroxyarchaeol and various unsaturated pentamethylicosenes. Concurrently, abundant fatty acids (FAs) and a substantial amount of monoalkylglycerolethers (MAGEs), assigned to sulphate-reducing bacteria, were detected with strong (13) C-depletions. Both microbial lipids and their δ(13) C values suggest that anaerobic oxidation of methane with sulphate reduction (AOM/SR) occurs, specially in the 10- to 12-cm depth interval. Lipid biomarker results accompanied by 16S rRNA-based microbial diversity analyses showed that ANME-2 (ANME-2a and -2c) archaea and Desulfosarcina/Desulfococcus and Desulfobulbus deltaproteobacterial clades are the major AOM assemblages, which indicate a shallow AOM community at high methane flux. Apart from the typical AOM lipid biomarker pattern, a (13) C-depleted diunsaturated hydrocarbon, identified as 7,14-tricosadiene, occurred in the inferred maximum AOM interval at 10-12 cm depth. Its isotopic fingerprint implies that its microbial precursor occurs in close association with the AOM communities. Interestingly, the presence of 7,14-tricosadiene coincides with the presence of the so-far uncultured bacterial Candidate Division JS1, often detected in AOM areas. We propose the hypothesis that the JS1 bacterial group could be the potential source of (13) C-depleted tricosadiene. Future testing of this hypothesis is essential to fully determine the role of this bacterial group in AOM. PMID:23205581

  1. Late Pleistocene Major Sedimentary Reworking Event (Homogenite) in Marmara Sea Central Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, C.; Schneider, J.-L.; Mercier de Lépinay, B.; Cagatay, N.; Labeyrie, L.; Wendenbaum, E.; Boutareau, S.; Ménot-Combes, G.; Hadjas, I.; Turon, J.-L.; Marmacore Scientific Party

    2003-04-01

    Among eight long piston-cores retrieved during MARMACORE Cruise, two were dedicated to the Marmara Sea Central Basin especially for paleoseismic purpose. There, very high-resolution profiles evidenced a main acoustically transparent unit ponded in the whole basin and resembling the so-called " homogenite " described in central-eastern Mediterranean and in deep lakes. Core MD01-2431 (26.4 m) crossed a major sedimentary event comprising three parts, from bottom to top : 0.7 m of mud clasts within coarse sand, 1.9 m of poorly-stratified sand, and 4.8 m of homogenous clayey silt (top at 15.2 m bsf). Two wood-fragments found in the homogenous horizon (60 cm-separated) yielded 17 100 yrs BP calibrated AMS C14 values. Textural investigation on involved sediments lead to consider the whole set as a unique reworking event with : mass waisting evolving into turbidite, basal liquefaction and erosion of in situ fine sediments, segregation by oscillation (seiche-like or constrained turbidite effect) of finer fraction. If admitting a triggering of the whole set by an earthquake comparable to the strongest historical ones, the unusual reworked volume of soft sediments could be explained by an occurrence during a period of particularly high terrigenous supply.

  2. Distribution of OCPs and PCBs in Mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) from the Marmara Sea Coastal Sites.

    PubMed

    Ulusoy, Şafak; Özden, Özkan; Päpke, Olaf

    2016-08-01

    Mussel samples were collected monthly between October-2010 and October-2011 from four stations (Bosphorus, Bandırma, Gelibolu, Tekirdağ) in the Marmara Sea. Two consecutive months' samples were homogenized and combined as a single group for analysis. Mussel samples were analyzed for Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs); (total-DDT, total-HCH, Endrin, α-Endosulfan, β-Endosulfan, Heptachlor) and Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs); (PCB 28, PCB 52, PCB 138, PCB 153, and PCB 180). All analyses were done according to Eurofins house method in ERGO Laboratory in Germany. Concentrations of α-endosulfan and heptachlor in mussel tissues were below method detection limits. The annual average OCPs concentrations among the stations ranged between 0.02 and 1.45 ng/g (wet weight), 1.9-99.75 ng/g (lipid weight) whereas the annual average PCBs concentrations among the stations ranged between 0.03 and 0.40 ng/g (wet weight), 1.71-26.48 ng/g (lipid weight), respectively. There was no relation between fat content of mussels and residues of the contaminants. PCB 138 and PCB 153 were the most predominant PCBs, while total-DDT and total-HCH were the most predominant OCPs in the mussels. Total-DDT concentrations were higher compared to total-HCH and PCBs isomers. Measured levels were below the national and international committees' and institutions' limits for human consumption and protection of aquatic biota. PMID:27329111

  3. M≥7 Earthquake rupture forecast and time-dependent probability for the Sea of Marmara region, Turkey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Murru, Maura; Akinci, Aybige; Falcone, Guiseppe; Pucci, Stefano; Console, Rodolfo; Parsons, Thomas E.

    2016-01-01

    We forecast time-independent and time-dependent earthquake ruptures in the Marmara region of Turkey for the next 30 years using a new fault-segmentation model. We also augment time-dependent Brownian Passage Time (BPT) probability with static Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFF) from interacting faults. We calculate Mw > 6.5 probability from 26 individual fault sources in the Marmara region. We also consider a multisegment rupture model that allows higher-magnitude ruptures over some segments of the Northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NNAF) beneath the Marmara Sea. A total of 10 different Mw=7.0 to Mw=8.0 multisegment ruptures are combined with the other regional faults at rates that balance the overall moment accumulation. We use Gaussian random distributions to treat parameter uncertainties (e.g., aperiodicity, maximum expected magnitude, slip rate, and consequently mean recurrence time) of the statistical distributions associated with each fault source. We then estimate uncertainties of the 30-year probability values for the next characteristic event obtained from three different models (Poisson, BPT, and BPT+ΔCFF) using a Monte Carlo procedure. The Gerede fault segment located at the eastern end of the Marmara region shows the highest 30-yr probability, with a Poisson value of 29%, and a time-dependent interaction probability of 48%. We find an aggregated 30-yr Poisson probability of M >7.3 earthquakes at Istanbul of 35%, which increases to 47% if time dependence and stress transfer are considered. We calculate a 2-fold probability gain (ratio time-dependent to time-independent) on the southern strands of the North Anatolian Fault Zone.

  4. The entrance of the Izmit Gulf : a key site for monitoring gas emissions and seismicity in the Sea of Marmara

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gasperini, Luca; Polonia, Alina; Favali, Paolo; Marinaro, Giuditta; Etiope, Giuseppe; Namık Ćaǧatay, M.; Henry, Pierre; Geli, Louis

    2010-05-01

    The Sea of Marmara has been widely recognized as a seismic gap that will be probably filled in the next decades by a large (M >=7) earthquake along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) system. Accordingly, new research activities started in the last years, and the possibility of installing seafloor observatories, considered. Only long-term observatories allow continuous observation of large numbers of parameters. This capability is crucial for observing natural processes that are either very episodic, or statistically require long time series to be detected. Among these phenomena, gas seepage at the seabed, occurring in various locations in the Sea of Marmara (Geli et al., 2008) may be sensitive to seismicity, providing possible precursor signals. Several lines of evidence suggest that the Gulf of Izmit, in the eastern Sea of Marmara, is a key area for monitoring the activity of the NAF through seismometers and gas sensors, because: 1) it is an area characterized by a "focusing" of the NAF principal deformation zone into a single strike-slip fault, along which the dextral strike-slip rate averaged over geological times (10 mm/y) has been measured (Polonia et al., 2004); 2) it is close to the western end of the surface rupture associated with the 1999 Izmit earthquake; thus, it is a probable area where the next earthquake will nucleate; 3) it is characterized by gas and fluids emission related to the fault activity, as documented by acoustic images of the water-column and direct observations carried out using ROVs (Gasperini et al., 2009). The methane and hydrogen sulphide escape is also confirmed by the presence of "black patches" at the seafloor observed during MarNaut cruise. Seafloor multi-parameters monitoring in this area is therefore essential to unravel relationships between geochemical, physical and geophysical parameters and the mechanical behaviour of faults; the information could then be used for seismic risk assessments and to define early-warning strategies

  5. Imaging the Fault Geometry From the Multi-Channel Seismic Reflection Data in the Marmara Sea, Tekirdag Basin, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanbur, Z.; Alptekin, O.

    2002-05-01

    Determination of the fault geometry in the Marmara Sea has been a major problem for the researchers after the occurence of 17 August 1999 ?zmit (M=7.4) and 12 Novenber 1999 D\\x81zce (M=7.2) earthquakes. We used Pre-Stack Kirchhoff Depth Migration Technique to ivestigate the fault geometry in the Tekirda? Basin in western Marmara Sea by using the multi-channel seismic reflection data collected by Mineral Research Institute of Turkey ( MTA). Our results show that using the Kirchhoff technique the geometry of the fault plane can be imaged better comparing to the convensional technique. Our image of the Ganos fault indicates transpressive character in the west and transtensional character in the south margin of the Tekirda? basin. Imaging technique make the trust component visible in the migration section and show that the Ganos fault has multiple fault plane. These fault planes are imaged through the depth of 2750 m in the west of Tekirda? Basin. The major plane of Ganos fault dips 33 degrees toward south at 1750 m depth. The dip of the fault gradually decreases to 18 degrees till 2750 m. Another image cutting the basin in NS direction shows that the character of the Ganos fault is changed to transtensional and the whole section is like a flower structure. The fault plane dips 70 degrees toward north . The images obtained in this study not only confirm the preliminary results determined from conventional processing techniques but also provides significant additional information on the faults in the Marmara Sea.

  6. Sedimentary earthquake records in the İzmit Gulf, Sea of Marmara, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Çağatay, M. N.; Erel, L.; Bellucci, L. G.; Polonia, A.; Gasperini, L.; Eriş, K. K.; Sancar, Ü.; Biltekin, D.; Uçarkuş, G.; Ülgen, U. B.; Damcı, E.

    2012-12-01

    Sedimentary earthquake records of the last 2400 a, including that of the devastating 17 August 1999 İzmit earthquake (Mw = 7.4), were studied in cores from the 210 m-deep central Karamürsel Basin of the İzmit Gulf in the eastern Sea of Marmara, using laser grain-size, physical properties, stable O and C isotopes and XRF Core Scanner analyses, and dated by radionuclide and radiocarbon methods. The earthquake records are represented by turbidite-homogenite mass-flow units (THU) that commonly contain a basal coarse layer, a middle laminated silt layer and an overlying homogeneous mud layer. The coarse basal part has a sharp and sometimes scoured lower boundary, and includes multiple coarse (sand/silt) layers or laminae showing normal size grading. Multiple coarse layers and occasional bi-directional cross-bedding suggest deposition from a bed-load during water column oscillations, or seiche effect. The grain-size characteristics of the overlaying laminated silt and the homogeneous mud units indicate deposition from weak oscillating currents and homogeneous suspension, respectively. High Mn value just below the base of THUs suggests diagenetic enrichment at oxic/anoxic redox boundary before the mass-flow event. Sharp decrease in Mn with very low values within the THUs suggests transient redox conditions following the mass-flow. Variable geochemical compositions of the basal coarse layers indicate different sediment sources for different THUs. Eight sedimentary earthquake records observed in the last 2400 a in the İzmit Gulf can be confidently correlated with the historical earthquakes of 1999, 1509 AD (Ms = 7.2), 1296 AD (I = VII), 865 AD (I = VIII), 740 AD (I = VIII), 268 AD (I = VIII), 358 AD (I = IX), and 427 BC. This gives an earthquake recurrence time of ca. 300 a, with the interval between consecutive events ranging from 90 to 695 a.

  7. Environmental and health benefits from designating the Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits as an emission control area (ECA).

    PubMed

    Viana, M; Fann, N; Tobías, A; Querol, X; Rojas-Rueda, D; Plaza, A; Aynos, G; Conde, J A; Fernández, L; Fernández, C

    2015-03-17

    Ship emissions degrade air quality and affect human health, and are increasingly becoming a matter of concern. Sulfur emission control areas (ECA), specific coastal regions where only low-sulfur fuels may be consumed by ocean-going ships, have proven to be useful tools to reduce ship-sourced air pollution along the North American, Canadian, and European North and Baltic Sea coastlines. The present work assesses the environmental and health benefits which would derive from designating an ECA in the Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits (50 000 ships/year; 23 million inhabitants). Results show evidence that implementing an ECA would be technically viable and that it would reduce ship-sourced PM10 and PM2.5 ambient concentrations in Istanbul by 67%, and SO2 by 90%. The reduction of the air pollution burden on health was quantified as 210 hospital admissions from exposure to PM10, 290 hospital admissions from exposure to SO2, and up to 30 premature deaths annually due to ECA emission controls. Consequently, the designation of an ECA in the Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits is evaluated as a positive, technically viable and real-world measure to reduce air pollution from ships in Turkey.

  8. Submarine Paleoearthquake Records and Seismic Risk Assessment in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cagatay, M. Namik; Biltekin, Demet; Erel, Levent; Henry, Pierre; Gasperini, Luca; McHugh, Cecilia M.; Grall, Celine; Gungor, L. Nurdan; Gungor, Emin; Polonia, Alina; Zabci, Cengiz; Akkok, Remzi

    2014-05-01

    Long-term paleoearthquake history of faults is important for probabilistic earthquake risk assessment. Such records can be obtained from the study of mass-transport units triggered by seismic activity in marine and lake basins. The Sea of Marmara (SoM), located on the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), is an important laboratory for the study of paleoearthquake records, mainly because it has: a) more than 2000 years of historical earthquake records with which radiometrically dated sedimentary earthquake records can be correlated, b) high sedimentation rates (≤3m/kyrs) so that individual events can be distinguished, and c) cold fluid and hydrocarbon seeps along active faults, leaving sedimentary and geochemical signatures of earthquake activity. After the destructive 1912 Mw 7.4 Mürefte and 1999 Mw 7.4 Izmit and Mw 7.2 Duzce earthquakes, the SoM represent a seismic gap. It is therefore crucial to obtain information on the long-term earthquake history of the NAF in the SoM. We have carried out a systematic study of the 24 cores recovered from the various Marmara basins and highs characterizing the different segments of the NAF, using high resolution digital X-Ray Radiography and µ-XRF Core Scanner, MSCL physical properties and grain-size analyses. The chronology was determined using AMS radiocarbon and radionuclide methods. Turbidite-homogenite deposits (TH) triggered by earthquakes are commonly characterized by multiple sand-silt laminae above a sharp and often erosional base and a homogeneous mud at the top. However, in shallow basins (<110 m) such as Gölcük and Gemlik, the TH units consists of red brown coarse to medium silt units having a sharp basal boundary. The basal TH parts have high gamma density and magnetic susceptibility, and are often enriched in one or more of elements, such as Si, Zr, Ca, Ti, K and Fe, indicative of coarse detrital silicate and carbonate shell input. Radionuclide and radiocarbon dated TH units in different basins of the SoM can be

  9. Late Glacial to Holocene evolution and sea-level history of Gulf of Gemlik, Sea of Marmara, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabuncu, Asen; Kadir Eriş, K.; Kaslilar, Ayse; Namık Çaǧatay, M.; Gasperini, Luca; Filikçi, Betül

    2016-04-01

    The Gulf of Gemlik is an E-W elongated trans-tensional basin with a maximum depth of 113 m, located on the middle strand of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in the south eastern part of the Sea of Marmara (SoM). While during the Holocene the sea level in the Gulf of Gemlik changed in tandem with the water level changes in the SoM, it may have been different in the late glacial when the Sea of Marmara was lacustrine. Beside the tectonic activity related to the NAFZ, eustatic sea level changes would have controlled the basin evolution and consequent sedimentary history during the different paleocanographic phases of the SoM. Considering the limited studies on the late glacial-Holocene stratigraph of the Gulf of Gemlik, this study aims to investigate the depositional units and their environments with respect to different allogenic and autogenic controls. For these purposes, we analyzed over 300 2 - 7 kHz bandwidth high-resolution gridded seismic sub-bottom CHIRP profiles together with 70 kHz high resolution multibeam bathymetry with backscatter data. Four seismic stratigraphic units were defined and correlated with chronstratigraphic units in five piston cores covering the last 15.8 ka BP according to radiocarbon ages (14C). The depth-scale accuracy of chronostratigraphic units in cores is of key importance for the precise calculation of sedimentation rates. Correlation between the seismic profiles and cores were made by matching Multi-Sensor Core-Logger (MSCL) data and seismic reflection coefficients and amplitudes for different stratigraphic units. The impedance data derived from the logger were used to generate a synthetic seismogram. We used an approach to display, estimate, and correct the depth-scale discrepancies due to oversampling affecting the upper part of sedimentary series during piston coring. The method is based on the resynchronization of synthetic seismograms computed from high-quality physical property logs to the corresponding CHIRP profiles. Each

  10. Some population parameters of Ruditapes philippinarum (Bivalvia, Veneridae) on the southern coast of the Marmara Sea, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Çolakoğlu, Serhat; Palaz, Mustafa

    2014-12-01

    Ruditapes philippinarum, a venerid clam, is a dominant species in the sandy and muddy areas in the coastal waters of the Marmara Sea. Intensive commercial harvesting of this species is conducted in these regions. We studied the population dynamics of R. philippinarum on the southern coast of the Marmara Sea (Bandırma). Samples were collected on a monthly basis between September 2012 and August 2013. Seasonal von Bertalanffy growth parameters using the length-frequency distribution of R. philippinarum were estimated at L ∞ = 67.50 mm and K = 0.33 year-1, and the seasonal oscillation in growth rate was 0.53. The slowest growth period was in January. The growth performance index and potential lifespan were 3.182 and 8.06 years, respectively. The growth relationship was confirmed to have a positive allometric pattern. The average total mortality rate was estimated to be 0.777 year-1, whereas the natural and fishing mortality rates were 0.539 and 0.238 year-1, respectively. The current exploitation rate of R. philippinarum was 0.306. The recruitment pattern peaked during June-August, and spawning occurred between May and August. The results of this study provide valuable information on the status of R. philippinarum stocks.

  11. Seafloor Geodetic Monitoring of the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara: System Installation and its Initial Result

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kido, M.

    2015-12-01

    The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) get across the mainland of Turkey is known as a quite active strike slip fault. The earthquake recurrence period for individual segment is estimated roughly 300 years based on historical records. The Marmara Segment is the major seismic gap since the last earthquake in 1766, while the Murefte earthquake occurred in 1912 at its west side and the Izmit earthquake in 1999 at its east side. The relative motion across the NAF is ~22 mm/yr based on the data from space geodesy. Investigating how much degree of this displacement is released by aseismic creep or accumulated by slip deficit in the Marmara Segment is crucial to know the total seismic risk in this region. Because the NAF is submerged in the Sea of Marmara and is inaccessible by space geodesy, we employed seafloor geodetic technique using extensometers, which acoustically monitor baseline length across a strain-localized zone, such as surface trace of a fault. In 2014, we installed five extensometers at the Western High crossing the NAF one after the other, where the surface trace of the NAF is prominent and gas emission from the seafloor is reported in. Totally four beselines of ~1 km range are successfully formed and quality of initial test data was promising. Based on the initial data, detectable level of the baseline change is estimated to be ~2mm, which owing to quite stable seawater near the bottom due to strong density stratification in the Sea of Marmara. The extensometers are designed that data can be recovered via acoustic modem without disrupt the monitoring. Since the installation, we have visited the site twice and have recovered the data for ten months in total. Temperature measured by thermistor equipped on each extensometer showed coherent change and gradual increase by 0.007 degree during the period. This reflects apparent beseline shortening due to the corresponding increase of the sound speed. In the preliminary temperature correction, difference of the change

  12. Spatio-temporal variations of soil radon patterns around the Sea of Marmara

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Passarelli, Luigi; Seyis, Cemil; Woith, Heiko

    2016-04-01

    Typically, the noble gas radon displays cyclic daily (S1), semidiurnal (S2) as well as seasonal variations in geological environments like soil air, groundwater, rock, caves, and tunnels. But there are also cases where theses cycles are absent. We present examples from a radon monitoring network of 21 sites around the Sea of Marmara. The works were carried out in the frame of MARsite, a project related to the EU supersite initiative (MARsite has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308417). Alpha-meters from the Canadian company alpha-nuclear are used to measure the radon concentration in counts per 15 minutes at a depth of 80 cm. The long-term average radon concentrations at 21 sites vary between 35 and 1,000 counts per 15 minutes. Typical seasonal variations are absent at more than 6 sites. Sites with seasonal variations have radon minima usually during winter (December to April), radon maxima during summer months (June to October). We carefully investigated radon time series for all the monitoring stations. We find that at some sites the empirical distribution of radon counts is clearly bimodal and in other bimodality is absent. In those stations we analysed the time series in different time intervals in order to highlight seasonal periodicity in the radon emission. The empirical distributions obtained by time-windowing of the radon signals results to be statistically different one another after applying a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at significance level of 0.1. Usually the maxima in radon emission occur in summer time but, interestingly enough, two sites are characterized by radon maxima in winter periods. We further investigate the radon signals seeking for smaller scale periodicity. We calculated Fourier spectra of all 21 sites. Daily cycles are absent at 6 sites which is an unusual phenomenon. Daily cycles may disappear, if the local system is heavily

  13. Late Pleistocene to Holocene paleoceanographic and paleo-climatic changes in Gulf of Gemlik, Sea of Marmara, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Filikci, Betül; Kadir Eriş, K.; Namık Çaǧatay, M.; Gasperini, Luca; Sabuncu, Asen; Acar, Dursun; Yalamaz, Burak

    2016-04-01

    Gulf of Gemlik is an east-west oriented marine inlet with a maximum depth of 113 m in the south-eastern part of the Sea of Marmara. It is located on the middle branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. While the Gulf of Gemlik is separated from the SoM by a bedrock sill at -50 m, there were presumably several disconnections during the Late Pleistocene to Holocene, but the timing of the youngest connection around the onset of the Holocene is still controversial. Here, we attempt to elucidate the paleoceanographic and paleoenvironmental changes during the late glacial-Holocene using the multi-proxy analysis of a core extending back to 13 ka BP. The multi-proxy data include physical and geochemical properties together with AMS 14C ages. The core sediments covering the time period of the last 13 ka BP consists of two main lithostratigraphic units. The lower Unit L2 represents the lacustrine phase of the gulf prior to 10.6 ka BP, while the upper Unit L1 is an overlying transgressive mud drape deposited during the main part of the Holocene. Unit L2 deposited prior 10.6 ka BP represents Bølling-Allerød and Younger Dryas climatic periods, when prograding shelf edge sediments were deposited in the form of well sorted medium sands with brackish water bivalve shells (Dreissenapolymorpha). At the beginning of the Holocene, the rising sea level in the Sea of Marmara breached the -50 m sill at 10.6 ka BP, and therefore the Gulf of Gemlik was converted into a marine realm. Soon after, the water stratifications allowed to the formation of the previously studied two sapropels in the gulf, as shown by increased TOC contents. μ-XRF Ca/Ti and Sr/Ca profiles of Unit L1 provide evidence of rapid climatic changes at 8.2 ka BP and 4.2 ka BP, representing cold and dry short climatic periods which are well correlated with previous marine and lake studies in İznik Lake south of the Sea of Marmara. Keywords: Gemlik Gulf, core, paleoclimate, Late Pleistocene to Holocene

  14. The propagation processes of the North Anatolian Fault and the evolution of the Sea of Marmara pull-apart

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armijo, R.; Meyer, B.; Navarro, S.; King, G.; Barka, A.

    2002-12-01

    Between 1939 and 1999 the North Anatolian fault (NAF) experienced a westward progression of eight large earthquakes over 800 km along its morphological trace. The 2000-km-long North Anatolian transform fault has also grown by westward propagation through continental lithosphere over a much longer time scale (~10 m.y.). As the Arabia/Europe collision progressed in eastern Turkey it caused Anatolia to move to the West and the North Anatolian Fault to propagate along the Pontides and into the northern Aegean. The early slow extension in the Aegean started to be modified about 5 Ma ago. At 1 Ma the process of propagation dramatically increased the activity of the Corinth Rift in Greece, where Pleistocene marine terraces have been rapidly uplifted. The Sea of Marmara is a large pull-apart which appears to have been a geometrical/mechanical obstacle encountered by the NAF during its westward propagation. New high-resolution data (bathymetry, side-scan sonar, seismics) provide a precise image of the structure and the evolution of the submarine fault system that forms a smaller pull-apart beneath the Northern Sea of Marmara, between two well-known strike-slip faults on land (Izmit and Ganos faults). The outstandingly clear submarine morphology shows a segmented fault system including pull-apart features at a range of scales, which indicate a dominant transtensional tectonic regime. There is no evidence for a single, throughgoing, purely strike-slip fault. This result is critical to our understanding of the seismic behaviour of this region of the NAF, close to Istanbul. There is morphological and geological evidence for a stable kinematics consistent both with the long-term displacement field determined for the past 5 m.y. and with the present-day Anatolia/Eurasia motion determined with GPS. However, within the Sea of Marmara region the fault kinematics involves asymmetric slip partitioning which appears to have extended throughout the evolution of the pull-apart. The

  15. The Propagation Processes of The North Anatolian Fault and The Evolution of The Sea of Marmara Pull-apart

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armijo, R.; Meyer, B.; Navarro, S.; King, G.; Barka, A.

    Between 1939 and 1999 the North Anatolian fault (NAF) experienced a westward pro- gression of eight large earthquakes over 800 km along its morphological trace. The 2000-km-long North Anatolian transform fault has also grown by westward propa- gation through continental lithosphere over a much longer time scale (~10 m.y.). As the Arabia/Europe collision progressed in eastern Turkey it caused Anatolia to move to the West and the North Anatolian Fault to propagate along the Pontides and into the northern Aegean. The early slow extension in the Aegean started to be modi- fied about 5 Ma ago. At 1 Ma the process of propagation dramatically increased the activity of the Corinth Rift in Greece, where Pleistocene marine terraces have been rapidly uplifted. The Sea of Marmara is a large pull-apart which appears to have been a geometrical/mechanical obstacle encountered by the NAF during its westward prop- agation. New high-resolution data (bathymetry, side-scan sonar, seismics) provide a precise image of the structure and the evolution of the submarine fault system that forms a smaller pull-apart beneath the Northern Sea of Marmara, between two well- known strike-slip faults on land (Izmit and Ganos faults). The outstandingly clear submarine morphology shows a segmented fault system including pull-apart features at a range of scales, which indicate a dominant transtensional tectonic regime. There is no evidence for a single, throughgoing, purely strike-slip fault. This result is criti- cal to our understanding of the seismic behaviour of this region of the NAF, close to Istanbul. There is morphological and geological evidence for a stable kinematics con- sistent both with the long-term displacement field determined for the past 5 m.y. and with the present-day Anatolia/Eurasia motion determined with GPS. However, within the Sea of Marmara region the fault kinematics involves asymmetric slip partitioning which appears to have extended throughout the evolution of the pull

  16. Heavy metal concentrations and the variations of foraminifers in the Silivri-Kumbagi area (NW Marmara Sea, Turkey)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ünal Yümün, Zeki; Murat Kılıç, Ali; Önce, Melike

    2016-04-01

    In the area between Silivri (İstanbul) and Kumbagi (Tekirdag), NW of Marmara Sea, there is a considerable extent in marine pollution from industrial and settlements wastes, sea transports, and agricultural activities. The most important one of these pollutions is the spread of heavy metals. Our research investigated sediments in order to determine whether heavy minerals affected biota such as recent foraminifers, or not. Our investigation area starts from Marmara Ereglisi, in the east, continues to Tekirdag and Kumbagi, in the west. 10 sea-water samples, 10 sediment-core samples and one 10 m core-drilling sample, taken 250 m off-shore from coast line. As a result of this sampling geochemical analysis of the bottom-mud and water samples were done and the ratio of heavy metals and other contaminants determined. For heavy metal analyses, concentration analysis of 12 heavy metals (Cd, Fe, Cu, Pb, Zn, Al, Co, Cr, Mn, Ni, As, and Hg) has been conducted, as ppm, in sediment samples taken from the levels in which foraminifers are collected. Perpendicular (spatial) heavy metal concentration changes have been determined with off-shore drilling samples and horizontal changes (geochronological) have been determined with the help of core samples. Especially, it has been understood that heavy metal concentrations in recent sediments are higher compared to the past. In this research the samples have been taken from each 10 cm. of core and drilling samples to collect the benthic foraminifers. In this context, 15 grams of dry sediment sample taken from each level, have been washed in 125 μm sieves in order to determine its benthic foraminifer content. Benthic foraminifera from these samples have been identified taxonomically and their morphological differentiation has been determined after taking SEM photos. As a result of this study, the foraminifera types of "Adelosinacliarensis, Adelosinamediteranensis, Adelosinapulchella, Ammonia compacta, Ammonia parkinsonia, Ammonia tepida

  17. Evidence for microbial methane oxidation at cold seeps along the main active fault in the Marmara Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chevalier, Nicolas; Birgel, Daniel; Lopez-Garcia, Purificacion; Taphanel, Marie-Helene; Bouloubassi, Ioanna

    2010-05-01

    The North Anatolian Fault in the Marmara Sea is a spectacular example of a seismically active fault where, in recent years, numerous sites of active fluid venting have been discovered and explored. During the MARNAUT cruise (2007), multidisciplinary sampling was carried out with the Nautile submersible in order to investigate biogeochemical and hydrogeological processes taking place at these newly discovered cold seeps. We have studied short sediment cores (< 20 cm) and authigenic carbonate crusts retrieved with the Nautile submersible from sub-basins of the Marmara Sea, aiming at gaining insight into microbial processes and assemblages in this recently discovered methane-rich setting and at comparing it with previously studied cold seeps. To do so, we investigated diagnostic microbial lipids and their carbon isotope composition, and, in selected sediment samples, we carried out cloning and sequencing of 16S rRNA genes. The sediment core retrieved from the southern slope of the Çinarcik Basin, in an area of black patches, bacterial mats and polychaetes, contained abundant and strongly 13C-depleted archaeal and bacterial lipids. Archaeal lipids consisted mainly of archaeol, sn-2-hydroxyarchaeol, crocetane, and unsaturated PMIs, and showed δ13C values as low as -125 per mille. Concurrently, bacterial lipids (e.g. cyclopropyl-C17:0, C16:1?5, i-/ai-C15:0, and non-isoprenoidal glycerol monoethers), previously assigned to sulphate reducing bacteria (SRB), were identified with low δ13C values (-55 to -115 per mille). The structural and isotopic features of microbial lipids provided compelling evidence for anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) taking place within the upper 17 cm of the sediment core, mediated by methanotrophic archaea (ANME) and sulphate reducing bacteria. No biomarker evidence for aerobic oxidation of methane was found. Depth profiles of microbial lipids revealed the vertical zonation of AOM and associated microbial biomass, and implied that AOM is

  18. Enhancing analog seismic data resolution using the A/D converter: Examples of Sicilia Channel and Marmara Sea data set

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alp, H.

    2015-12-01

    We present here two data set composed of about 20 multichannel seismic data profiles, for a total of 1102 km of data acquired in the Sicilia Channel in Italy and Marmara Sea in Turkey. The data set of Multichannel seismic reflection profiles and well information acquired for commercial purpose by oil companies in the 1970's and 1980's. All profiles in Sicilia Channel, which are available on .pdf files were downloaded from VIDEPI website. Other profiles in Marmara Sea were taken from Turkish Petroleum Corporation. The first step was to convert the graphic files SEG-Y format files, using SeisTrans® software. Due to the great inhomogeneity of the various seismic lines, which have been recorded from different companies with different acquisition parameters, it has been necessary a great job of homogenization and noise reduction through the use of adequate band-pass filters. Then, for each reconstructed seismic line, SEG-Y header editing was necessary in order to assign the CDP (common-depth-points) and the SP (shot points) to the corresponding geographic coordinates. The SEG-Y files so created were uploaded and archived into a project using the Kingdom Suite® seismic package. To perform the calibration of seismic data with the stratigraphic wells, the classic problem is to identify on seismic profiles the reflections corresponding to the lithological variations identified in the wells. This is because the vertical scale of the seismic data is expressed in time, while that of the wells is expressed in meters. The main unknown is then the sound velocity within the different lithologies. In order to better correlate real data reflections with the corresponding stratigraphic discontinuities, synthetic seismogram have been created from the reflectivity series obtained through acoustic impedance calculations. They represent an example of forward modeling to match as closely as possible the real seismic data.

  19. Effects of neotectonic and sedimentary processes on the seafloor geomorphology of the Tekirdag Basin of the western Marmara Sea (Turkey)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ergin, Mustafa; Yigit-Faridfathi, Füsun

    2010-05-01

    This study forms part of a project (TUBITAK YDABCAG 101Y071) with the main purpose of investigation of late Quaternary slope stability, sediment mass movements and turbidite formations in the tectonically active Tekirdag Basin and its margins from the western Marmara Sea. The results were also intended to relate to the major earthquakes and sea-level changes. During this project, in 2001 aboard the former R/V MTA Sismik-1, a total of 100 km seismic reflection profiles were obtained along three tracklines representing from shelf to slope to deep basin environments. A multichannel airgun seismic system and well-known methods and principles of seismic stratigraphy was used for interpretations. At 11 sites from 29 to 1111 m water depths gravity sediment cores were taken having 100 to 359 cm recoveries and textural and structural characteristics were determined using standard petrographic methods. The NEE-SWW directed seismic profile (TKD-01) which runs parallel to the North Anatolian Fault zone displayed syntectonic sedimentation with negative flower structure that increased in thickness toward the Ganos Fault and pinched out in the east. ENE section of this profile also bears structures of underwater landslides with slump facies. Seismic profile TKD-02 which crosses the Tekirdag Basin in WNW-ESE direction most likely displays major 3 fault segments of the NAF zone. Many faults and syntectonic sedimentation structure can be recognized on this profile. A morphological feature of a sediment wedge or former lowstand delta at the present shelf edge can be related to the effects of last sea-level change. Mounded and chaotic seismic reflection configurations which indicate channel and slope-front fill as well as slump facies are thought to reflect submarine slides and slumps. Other morphological features such as incised submarine valleys or channels running E-W direction are also present on this profile. The seismic profile (TKD-03) runs from NNW to SSE across the basin and

  20. A review and assessment of gas hydrate potential in Çınarcık Basin, Sea of Marmara

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sile, Hande; Akin, Cansu; Ucarkus, Gulsen; Namik Cagatay, M.

    2016-04-01

    The Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey), an intracontinental sea between the Mediterranean and Black Seas, is located in a tectonically active region with the formation of shallow gas hydrates and free gas. It is widely known that, Sea of Marmara sediments are organic-rich and conducive to production of methane, which is released on the sea floor through active fault segments of the North Anatolian Fault (Geli et al., 2008). Here we study the gas hydrate potential of the Çınarcık Basin using published data and our core analyses together with gas hydrate stability relations. The gas sampled in the Çınarcık Basin is composed mainly of biogenic methane and trace amounts of heavier hydrocarbons (Bourry et al., 2009). The seafloor at 1273 m depth on the Çınarcık Basin with temperature of 14.5oC and hydrostatic pressure of 127.3 atm corresponds to the physical limit for gas hydrate formation with respect to phase behavior of gas hydrates in marine sediments (Ménot and Bard, 2010). In order to calculate the base of the gas hydrate stability zone in Çınarcık Basin, we plotted T (oC) calculated considering the geothermal gradient versus P (atm) on the phase boundary diagram. Below the seafloor, in addition to hydrostatic pressure (10 Mpa/km), we calculated lithostatic pressure due to sediment thickness considering the MSCL gamma ray density values (~1.7 gr/cm3). Our estimations show that, gas hydrate could be stable in the upper ~20 m of sedimentary succession in Çınarcık Basin. The amount of gas hydrate in the Çınarcık Basin can be determined using the basinal area below 1220 m depth (483 km2) and average thickness of the gas hydrate stability zone (20 m) and the sediment gas hydrate saturation (1.2 % used as Milkov, 2004 suggested). The calculations indicate the potential volume of gas hydrate in Çınarcık Basin as ~11.6x107 m3. Such estimates are helpful for the consideration of gas hydrates as a new energy resource, for assessment of geohazards or their

  1. Physically based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using broadband ground motion simulation: a case study for the Prince Islands Fault, Marmara Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mert, Aydin; Fahjan, Yasin M.; Hutchings, Lawrence J.; Pınar, Ali

    2016-08-01

    The main motivation for this study was the impending occurrence of a catastrophic earthquake along the Prince Island Fault (PIF) in the Marmara Sea and the disaster risk around the Marmara region, especially in Istanbul. This study provides the results of a physically based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methodology, using broadband strong ground motion simulations, for sites within the Marmara region, Turkey, that may be vulnerable to possible large earthquakes throughout the PIF segments in the Marmara Sea. The methodology is called physically based because it depends on the physical processes of earthquake rupture and wave propagation to simulate earthquake ground motion time histories. We included the effects of all considerable-magnitude earthquakes. To generate the high-frequency (0.5-20 Hz) part of the broadband earthquake simulation, real, small-magnitude earthquakes recorded by a local seismic array were used as empirical Green's functions. For the frequencies below 0.5 Hz, the simulations were obtained by using synthetic Green's functions, which are synthetic seismograms calculated by an explicit 2D /3D elastic finite difference wave propagation routine. By using a range of rupture scenarios for all considerable-magnitude earthquakes throughout the PIF segments, we produced a hazard calculation for frequencies of 0.1-20 Hz. The physically based PSHA used here followed the same procedure as conventional PSHA, except that conventional PSHA utilizes point sources or a series of point sources to represent earthquakes, and this approach utilizes the full rupture of earthquakes along faults. Furthermore, conventional PSHA predicts ground motion parameters by using empirical attenuation relationships, whereas this approach calculates synthetic seismograms for all magnitudes of earthquakes to obtain ground motion parameters. PSHA results were produced for 2, 10, and 50 % hazards for all sites studied in the Marmara region.

  2. Distribution and environmental impacts of heavy metals and radioactivity in sediment and seawater samples of the Marmara Sea.

    PubMed

    Otansev, Pelin; Taşkın, Halim; Başsarı, Asiye; Varinlioğlu, Ahmet

    2016-07-01

    In this study, the natural and anthropogenic radioactivity levels in the sediment samples collected from the Marmara Sea in Turkey were determined. The average activity concentrations (range) of (226)Ra, (238)U, (232)Th, (40)K and (137)Cs were found to be 23.8 (13.8-34.2) Bq kg(-1), 18.8 (6.4-25.9) Bq kg(-1), 23.02 (6.3-31.1) Bq kg(-1), 558.6 (378.8-693.6) Bq kg(-1) and 9.14 (4.8-16.3) Bq kg(-1), respectively. Our results showed that the average activity concentrations of (226)Ra, (238)U and (232)Th in the sediment samples were within the acceptable limits; whereas the average activity concentration of (40)K in the sediment samples was higher than the worldwide average concentration. The average radium equivalent activity, the average absorbed dose rate and the average external hazard index were calculated as 100.01 Bq kg(-1), 48.32 nGy h(-1) and 0.27, respectively. The average gross alpha and beta activity in the seawater samples were found to be 0.042 Bq L(-1) and 13.402 Bq L(-1), respectively. The gross alpha and beta activity concentrations increased with water depth in the same stations. The average heavy metal concentrations (range) in the sediment samples were 114.6 (21.6-201.7) μg g(-1) for Cr, 568.2 (190.8-1625.1) μg g(-1) for Mn, 39.3 (4.9-83.4) μg g(-1) for Cu, 85.5 (11.0-171.8) μg g(-1) for Zn, 32.9 (9.1-73.1) μg g(-1) for Pb and 49.1 (6.8-103.0) μg g(-1) for Ni. S5 station was heavily polluted by Cr, Cu, Ni and Pb. The results showed that heavy metal enrichment in sediments of the Marmara Sea was widespread.

  3. Distribution and environmental impacts of heavy metals and radioactivity in sediment and seawater samples of the Marmara Sea.

    PubMed

    Otansev, Pelin; Taşkın, Halim; Başsarı, Asiye; Varinlioğlu, Ahmet

    2016-07-01

    In this study, the natural and anthropogenic radioactivity levels in the sediment samples collected from the Marmara Sea in Turkey were determined. The average activity concentrations (range) of (226)Ra, (238)U, (232)Th, (40)K and (137)Cs were found to be 23.8 (13.8-34.2) Bq kg(-1), 18.8 (6.4-25.9) Bq kg(-1), 23.02 (6.3-31.1) Bq kg(-1), 558.6 (378.8-693.6) Bq kg(-1) and 9.14 (4.8-16.3) Bq kg(-1), respectively. Our results showed that the average activity concentrations of (226)Ra, (238)U and (232)Th in the sediment samples were within the acceptable limits; whereas the average activity concentration of (40)K in the sediment samples was higher than the worldwide average concentration. The average radium equivalent activity, the average absorbed dose rate and the average external hazard index were calculated as 100.01 Bq kg(-1), 48.32 nGy h(-1) and 0.27, respectively. The average gross alpha and beta activity in the seawater samples were found to be 0.042 Bq L(-1) and 13.402 Bq L(-1), respectively. The gross alpha and beta activity concentrations increased with water depth in the same stations. The average heavy metal concentrations (range) in the sediment samples were 114.6 (21.6-201.7) μg g(-1) for Cr, 568.2 (190.8-1625.1) μg g(-1) for Mn, 39.3 (4.9-83.4) μg g(-1) for Cu, 85.5 (11.0-171.8) μg g(-1) for Zn, 32.9 (9.1-73.1) μg g(-1) for Pb and 49.1 (6.8-103.0) μg g(-1) for Ni. S5 station was heavily polluted by Cr, Cu, Ni and Pb. The results showed that heavy metal enrichment in sediments of the Marmara Sea was widespread. PMID:27060635

  4. Widespread gas emissions in the Sea of Marmara in relation with the tectonic and sedimentary environments: Results from shipborne multibeam echosounder water column imagery (MARMESONET expedition, 2009)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dupré, Stéphanie; Scalabrin, Carla; Géli, Louis; Henry, Pierre; Grall, Céline; Tary, Jean-Baptiste; Ćaǧatay, Namık.; Imren, Caner

    2010-05-01

    Acoustic systems in marine geosciences are mainly used to explore the seabed and image sub-bottom sedimentary units. However, side-scan sonars and echosounders can detect gas emissions from the seabed into the water column. Recently, advances in technology and computer processing allow carrying out large-scale 3D surveys of the entire water column with multibeam systems, so far dedicated to seabed imagery. A shipborne multibeam survey of the water column in the Sea of Marmara was performed with the R/V Le Suroit during the MARMESONET expedition (4-25 November 2009), that is part of the ESONET (European Seas Observatory NETwork) demonstration mission MarmaraDM. Data were acquired with a Simrad EM302 multibeam echosounder (27-33 kHz, 288 beams, 1°x2°, 2 or 5 ms pulse length) with automatic swath width control and equidistant sounding pattern over water depths varying from 300 to 1300 m. Volume backscattering coefficients were stored with <10 m depth bins along more than 2000 nm acoustic tracks. Gas bubble echoes were very well detected by the EM302 system within the water depth range of the Sea of Marmara, mostly with the central beams but also with the outer beams for the flares with strong backscatter intensity and large imprint. Geo-referenced gas flare 3D visualization is performed with Movies3D software developed for fish school echo description and biomass assessment (Trenkel et al., 2009). The distribution of water column acoustic echoes in the Sea of Marmara reveals that free gas emissions from the seabed are more widespread than expected from previous studies using ROVs, submersibles as well as acoustic methods (Géli et al., 2008; Zitter et al., 2008). Numerous acoustic gas flares were detected in association with the North Anatolian fault system and some appear to be localized on known active fault traces. However, gas emissions also spread around the edges of the sedimentary basins (e.g. Cinarcik and Tekirdag basins) and on structural highs (e

  5. Discussion: a critique of Possible waterways between the Marmara Sea and the Black Sea in the late Quaternary: evidence from ostracod and foraminifer assemblages in lakes İznik and Sapanca, Turkey, Geo-Marine Letters, 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yaltırak, Cenk; Ülgen, Umut B.; Zabcı, Cengiz; Franz, Sven Oliver; Ön, Sena Akçer; Sakınç, Mehmet; Çağatay, M. Namık; Alpar, Bedri; Öztürk, Kurultay; Tunoğlu, Cemal; Ünlü, Selma

    2012-06-01

    The identification of past connection routes between the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara, other than the traditional one through to the Bosphorus Strait, would be of considerable interest to the international scientific community. Nazik et al. (Geo-Mar Lett 31:75-86 (2011) doi:10.1007/s00367-010-0216-9) suggest the possibility of two alternative waterway connections via lakes Sapanca and İznik. Their Black Sea to Sea of Marmara multi-connection hypothesis, which is based on undated marine fossils collected in both lakes from surficial grab samples, conflicts with many earlier studies. In this contribution, the hypothesis and the underlying data are discussed in the light of previous tectonic, sedimentological and limnological findings showing that it is impossible to have had marine connections through lakes Sapanca and İznik during the last 11.5 ka. Global sea-level trends and tectonic uplift rates would accommodate a connection between the Sea of Marmara and Lake İznik in the middle Pleistocene. Uplift rates for the northern block of the North Anatolian Fault, when compared with the global sea-level curve, clearly indicate that there cannot have been a connection through the İzmit Gulf-Lake Sapanca-Sakarya Valley for at least the past 500 ka. Moreover, borehole sediments along the western shores of Lake Sapanca, which reach down to the bedrock, do not contain any marine fossils.

  6. Seismicity along the Main Marmara Fault, Turkey: from space-time distribution to repeating events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmittbuhl, Jean; Karabulut, Hayrullah; Lengliné, Olivier; Bouchon, Michel

    2016-04-01

    The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) poses a significant hazard for the large cities surrounding the Marmara Sea region particularly the megalopolis of Istanbul. Indeed, the NAF is presently hosting a long unruptured segment below the Sea of Marmara. This seismic gap is approximately 150 km long and corresponds to the Main Marmara Fault (MMF). The seismicity along the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) below the Marmara Sea is analyzed here during the 2007-2012 period to provide insights on the recent evolution of this important regional seismic gap. High precision locations show that seismicity is strongly varying along strike and depth providing fine details of the fault behavior that are inaccessible from geodetic inversions. The activity strongly clusters at the regions of transition between basins. The Central basin shows significant seismicity located below the shallow locking depth inferred from GPS measurements. Its b-value is low and the average seismic slip is high. Interestingly we found also several long term repeating earthquakes in this domain. Using a template matching technique, we evidenced two new families of repeaters: a first family that typically belongs to aftershock sequences and a second family of long lasting repeaters with a multi-month recurrence period. All observations are consistent with a deep creep of this segment. On the contrary, the Kumburgaz basin at the center of the fault shows sparse seismicity with the hallmarks of a locked segment. In the eastern Marmara Sea, the seismicity distribution along the Princes Island segment in the Cinarcik basin, is consistent with the geodetic locking depth of 10km and a low contribution to the regional seismic energy release. The assessment of the locked segment areas provide an estimate of the magnitude of the main forthcoming event to be about 7.3 assuming that the rupture will not enter significantly within creeping domains.

  7. Geochemical and isotopic features of geothermal fluids around the Sea of Marmara, NW Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Italiano, Francesco; Woith, Heiko; Seyis, Cemil; Pizzino, Luca; Sciarra, Alessandra

    2016-04-01

    Earthquake processes provoke modifications of the crust affecting the fluid regime with changes in water level in wells, in temperature and/or chemical composition of groundwaters, in the flow-rate of gas discharges and in their chemical and isotopic composition. In the frame of MARsite (MARsite has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308417) the relationship between fluids and seismogenesis has been approached collecting geochemical data of local significance and evaluating them in geochemical interpretative models of fluids circulation and interactions as well as defining their behaviour over a seismic-prone area. During three fluid sampling campaigns in 2013, 2014, and 2015 a suite of 120 gas samples were collected from 72 thermal and mineral water springs/wells in the wider Marmara region along the Northern and Southern branches of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). Bubbling gases were collected if available, in all other cases the gas phase was extracted from water samples collected on that purpose. Gas samples were analyzed for the main chemical composition as well as their isotopic composition (He and C). The results highlight that the vented gases are a binary mixture of two end-members having nitrogen and carbon dioxide as main components. The geochemical features of the gas phase are the result of several processes that have modified their pristine composition. Atmospheric and deep-originated volatiles mix at variable extents and interact with cold and hot groundwaters. CO2 is normally the main gas species. But it's concentration may decrease due to gas-water interactions (GWI) increasing the relative concentration of N2 and other less soluble gases. A high CO2 content indicates minor interactions. Thus, the easier and faster the pathways are from the deep layers toward the Earth's surface, the lower are the interactions. The volatiles keep

  8. Temporal evolution of anthropogenic pollution and environmental changes in a marine inlet: the example of Gemlik Gulf, Marmara Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albut, Gülüm; Namık Cagatay, M.; Gungor, Nurdan; Gungor, Emin; Acar, Dursun; Balkıs, Nuray

    2014-05-01

    Marginal marine basins are particularly prone to anthropogenic pollution because of restricted water circulation and commonly high population density in their drainage basin. Gemlik Gulf is such a semi-enclosed inlet with maximum depth of 113 m in the eastern part of the Sea of Marmara, which is separated from the rest of the Marmara shelf by a -50 m deep sill. It is under anthropogenic risk from different industrial and municipal pollution sources in its drainage basin. Moreover, Gemlik Gulf, located on the middle branch of the North Anatolian fault (NAF), is under a future earthquake risk with a high possibility of pollution from disruption to industrial plants and municipal infrastucture, similar to the the one that occurred in the Ä°zmit Gulf during the 1999 Mw 7.4 Ä°zmit earthquake. In this study, we investigated the extent and temporal evolution of the heavy metal and organic pollution using a wide range of analyses of a 84 cm sediment/water interface long core from the central part of the basin, involving μ-XRF Core Scanner, Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS), Total Organic (TOC) and Inorganic Carbon (TIC), and mass spectrometric stable C and N isotopic and C and N elemental analyses. The chronology of the core was determined using radionuclide (210Pb and 137Cs) and AMS radiocarbon analysis. The core covers about last 800 years. The upper part of the core, representing the last 155 years, is gray mud grading into very dark grey mud in the top 84 cm. The 5-8 cm interval below sea floor (bsf) (AD 1985-1995) includes 3 white laminae consisting of coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi and another carbonate rich layer deposited during AD 1855-1950. TOC values are commonly between 1.5 and 2.5 % below 12.5 cmbsf (AD 1965), but increases up to 4.25 % towards the core top. The core includes a mass flow unit, which is most probably triggered by the AD 1855 earthquake, and is characterized by high contents of Fe, Zr, low contents of Ca, Nb, La U, Th

  9. Reply to Discussion: a critique of Possible waterways between the Marmara Sea and the Black Sea in the late Quaternary: evidence from ostracod and foraminifer assemblages in lakes İznik and Sapanca, Turkey, Geo-Marine Letters, 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nazik, Atike; Meriç, Engin; Avşar, Niyazi

    2012-06-01

    In their discussion of our 2011 paper dealing with possible waterways between the Marmara Sea and the Black Sea in the "late" Quaternary, based on data from ostracod and foraminifer assemblages in lakes İznik and Sapanca, Turkey, Yaltırak et al. (Geo-Mar Lett 32:267-274, 2012) essentially reject the idea of any links whatsoever, be they between the Marmara Sea and the lakes İznik and Sapanca, or further to the Black Sea via the valley of the Sakarya River. The evidence they provide in support of their view, however, is essentially circumstantial, in part conjectural, and also inconclusive considering the findings in favour of linkage between the Marmara Sea and the lakes at the very least, while the proposed connection with the Sakarya River valley remains speculative because of the lack of unambiguous data. On the other hand, Yaltırak et al. (Geo-Mar Lett 32:267-274, 2012) do raise valid points of concern which deserve careful future investigation, the most important being the possibility of sample contamination from dumped marine sediment used for construction purposes along some parts of the shore of Lake İznik. We agree that a concerted multidisciplinary effort is required to address the many unresolved issues in connection with the potential waterways proposed by us and others before us.

  10. Acoustic monitoring of gas emissions from the seafloor. Part II: a case study from the Sea of Marmara

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayrakci, Gaye; Scalabrin, Carla; Dupré, Stéphanie; Leblond, Isabelle; Tary, Jean-Baptiste; Lanteri, Nadine; Augustin, Jean-Marie; Berger, Laurent; Cros, Estelle; Ogor, André; Tsabaris, Christos; Lescanne, Marc; Géli, Louis

    2014-09-01

    A rotating, acoustic gas bubble detector, BOB (Bubble OBservatory) module was deployed during two surveys, conducted in 2009 and 2011 respectively, to study the temporal variations of gas emissions from the Marmara seafloor, along the North Anatolian Fault zone. The echosounder mounted on the instrument insonifies an angular sector of 7° during a given duration (of about 1 h). Then it rotates to the next, near-by angular sector and so forth. When the full angular domain is insonified, the "pan and tilt system" rotates back to its initial position, in order to start a new cycle (of about 1 day). The acoustic data reveal that gas emission is not a steady process, with observed temporal variations ranging between a few minutes and 24 h (from one cycle to the other). Echo-integration and inversion performed on the acoustic data as described in the companion paper of Leblond et al. (Mar Geophys Res, 2014), also indicate important variations in, respectively, the target strength and the volumetric flow rates of individual sources. However, the observed temporal variations may not be related to the properties of the gas source only, but reflect possible variations in sea-bottom currents, which could deviate the bubble train towards the neighboring sector. During the 2011 survey, a 4-component ocean bottom seismometer (OBS) was co-located at the seafloor, 59 m away from the BOB module. The acoustic data from our rotating, monitoring system support, but do not provide undisputable evidence to confirm, the hypothesis formulated by Tary et al. (2012), that the short-duration, non-seismic micro-events recorded by the OBS are likely produced by gas-related processes within the near seabed sediments. Hence, the use of a multibeam echosounder, or of several split beam echosounders should be preferred to rotating systems, for future experiments.

  11. Multi-parameter analysis of seismoturbidites in the Kumburgaz Basin of Sea of Marmara: Implications for creeping versus locked Central High segment of the North Anatolian Fault

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yakupoǧlu, Nurettin; Uçarkuş, Gülsen; Eriş, K. Kadir; Çaǧatay, M. Namık; Henry, Pierre; Yalamaz, Burak; Sabuncu, Asen; Acar, Dursun

    2016-04-01

    Sediment sequences deposited in active transform basins provide valuable archives of earthquake-triggered co-seismic sedimentation. A better understanding of the relationship between offshore fault ruptures and Seismoturbidites would have direct implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Submerged section of the North Anatolian Fault in the northern Sea of Marmara basin, which experienced more than 55 (Ms>6.8) earthquakes in the last 2000 years, poses a unique laboratory to study such kind of sync-tectonic history. Following the devastating 1999 Izmit and Duzce earthquakes (Mw = 7.4/7.2 respectively), a major seismic gap is now along the offshore branch of the NAF in the Sea of Marmara. The segments that control the Cinarcik and Kumburgaz basins in the Sea of Marmara have not ruptured during the 20th century. This study focusses on the Kumburgaz basin, which is located along the central segment of the NAF, and its less-known linkage to historical earthquakes, particularly to Ms>7 1509 and 1766 earthquakes. The main objective of this study is to test the two alternative hypotheses of a creeping versus locked central High segment by determining the frequency and timing of earthquake triggered turbidite units in the Kumburgaz basin. A 21-m-long piston core recovered in Kumburgaz basin during the Marsite cruise in 2014 is analysed at high resolution in order to identify the discrete turbidite-homogenite units (T-H units). The piston core reveals 22 T-H units where several packages consist of a sharp basal contact and multiple fining upward beds of sand to coarse silt as characteristically seen in most Seismoturbidite units. We initiated a systematic study of T-H units with the objectives of establishing criteria for identification of Seismoturbidites by analysing the physical, mineralogical and chemical composition of the piston core. The density and magnetic susceptibility changes along the core are analysed by Multi-Sensor Core Logger (MSCL). High detrital input

  12. Re-evaluation of Tsunami Hazard in Marmara Sea Generated from the Combined Earthquake and Landslide Sources Focusing on Istanbul, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Latcharote, P.; Suppasri, A.; Imamura, F.; Aytore, B.; Yalciner, A. C.

    2015-12-01

    This study aimed to re-evaluate tsunami hazard in Marmara Sea from earthquake and submarine landslide focusing on the coastal area of Istanbul. For the fault-generated tsunami, the seismic rupture can be propagated along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) which have evidenced historical tsunami in Marmara Sea. Based on previous research studies, future scenarios are expected to generate tsunami as well as submarine landslide could be triggered by seismic motion which consider fault-generated tsunami and landslide-generated tsunami individually. However, this study want to simulate tsunami propagation generated from the combining earthquake-landslide sources. Therefore, the evaluation of tsunami hazard was discussed in both of the individual case and the combining case of earthquake and submarine landslide through numerical modelling of tsunami wave with mesh size 90 m of bathymetry data. A two-layer numerical model was employed to simulate the landslide-generated tsunami by modeling the interaction between tsunami and submarine landslide with different volume of initial slide. First, tsunami propagation was generated from earthquake sources of Rupture E in the eastern basin and Rupture W in the western basin of Marmara Sea with fault slip 5 m. For Rupture E and Rupture W, maximum tsunami height at shore shoreline could reach 3.4 m and 2.8 m respectively along the coastal area of Istanbul. For combining Rupture E and Rupture W, maximum tsunami height could reach 3.8 m which was a little higher than that of Rupture E. Then, tsunami propagation was generated from landslide sources in the southern neighborhood of Istanbul near Rupture E. For landslide volume of 0.15 m3, 0.6 m3, and 1.5 m3, maximum tsunami height at shore shoreline could reach 3.7 m, 6.9 m and 8.7 m respectively along the coastal area of Istanbul. It was shown that maximum tsunami height from landslide sources was higher than that from earthquake sources depending on the volume of initial slide

  13. Solearhynchus kostylewi (Meyer, 1932) comb. nov. (acanthocephala: Echinorhynchidae), a rare parasite of Solea solea (pisces: soleidae) in the Gemlik Bay, Sea of Marmara.

    PubMed

    Kvach, Y; Oğuz, M C

    2010-03-01

    Paracanthocephaloides kostylewi (Meyer, 1932), a rare parasite of the common sole Solea solea, previously placed in the Arhythmacanthidae, is transfered to the genus Solearhynchus de Buron & Maillard, 1985 of the family Echinorhynchidae as Solearhynchus kostylewi (Meyer, 1932) new comb., because its proboscis is armed by a single type of hooks, the posterior hook in each row is pinlike and with feebly developed root. The species is redescribed on the basis of newly collected material from the Gemlik Bay, Sea of Marmara. A key to the species of Solearhynchus is provided.

  14. Assessment of tsunami resilience of Haydarpaşa Port in the Sea of Marmara by high-resolution numerical modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aytore, Betul; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet; Zaytsev, Andrey; Cankaya, Zeynep Ceren; Suzen, Mehmet Lütfi

    2016-08-01

    Turkey is highly prone to earthquakes because of active fault zones in the region. The Marmara region located at the western extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is one of the most tectonically active zones in Turkey. Numerous catastrophic events such as earthquakes or earthquake/landslide-induced tsunamis have occurred in the Marmara Sea basin. According to studies on the past tsunami records, the Marmara coasts have been hit by 35 different tsunami events in the last 2000 years. The recent occurrences of catastrophic tsunamis in the world's oceans have also raised awareness about tsunamis that might take place around the Marmara coasts. Similarly, comprehensive studies on tsunamis, such as preparation of tsunami databases, tsunami hazard analysis and assessments, risk evaluations for the potential tsunami-prone regions, and establishing warning systems have accelerated. However, a complete tsunami inundation analysis in high resolution will provide a better understanding of the effects of tsunamis on a specific critical structure located in the Marmara Sea. Ports are one of those critical structures that are susceptible to marine disasters. Resilience of ports and harbors against tsunamis are essential for proper, efficient, and successful rescue operations to reduce loss of life and property. Considering this, high-resolution simulations have been carried out in the Marmara Sea by focusing on Haydarpaşa Port of the megacity Istanbul. In the first stage of simulations, the most critical tsunami sources possibly effective for Haydarpaşa Port were inputted, and the computed tsunami parameters at the port were compared to determine the most critical tsunami scenario. In the second stage of simulations, the nested domains from 90 m gird size to 10 m grid size (in the port region) were used, and the most critical tsunami scenario was modeled. In the third stage of simulations, the topography of the port and its regions were used in the two nested

  15. Aftershock Activity Triggered By the 2014 Earthquake (Mw=6.5), and Its Implications for the Future Seismic Risk in the Marmara Sea, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polat, O.; Kilic, T.; Turkoglu, M.; Kaplan, M.; Kilicarslan, O.; Özer, Ç.; Gok, E.

    2014-12-01

    We have performed aftershocks analysis triggered by 24.05.2014 (Mw=6.5) Gokceada Island (GI) earthquake where occurred at the W of North Anatolian Fault zone. Mainshock was widely felt in Aegean and Marmara regions of Turkey. Major damage in 228 homes was reported. Other 49 residences suffered moderate or light damage. We have well located 699 events over 1041 by at least 5 stations for one month period after the mainshock. Double difference relocation algorithm allowed us to minimize rms values less than 0.39. Initial results show clear unilateral rupture towards Gallipoli Peninsula at the W of Marmara Sea region. Aftershocks show linearity with an extension of ~110 km length, ~25 km width. Largest aftershock (Mw=5.3) was at the NE end of activation zone. Depths are mainly confined from 5 to 25 km ranges. Two locking depths are detected beneath 8 km in Lemnos Basin and Saros Trough. We also constructed focal mechanisms from regional moment tensor solutions. Digital waveform data obtained from AFAD (Turkey) and HT-AUTH (Greece). Focal mechanisms reflect complex tectonic settings. Nevertheless numerous mechanisms show dominant dextral strike-slip motions aligned NE-SW direction with minor reverse component. State of stress before the mainshock was pure shear regime. But two principal stress axes are observed as oblique for the aftershocks showing ambiguity between compression and shear. It is likely that the mean stress regime has changed after the GI earthquake. If this is so, we may expect that the strike-slip component would slowly increase later in order to recover the conditions existing before. Coulomb stress values rise at the edges of the fault segment due to accumulation of slip. We observed strong spatial correlation between the static stress change after 2014 GI earthquake and the segment that ruptured during the 1912 Murefte-Ganos (Mw=7.4) earthquake. The analysis showed that the areas of positive static stress changes reach to seismic gap in the Marmara

  16. Various paleoseismological records of M~7 earthquakes rupturing strike-slip fault in a semi closed marine basin: examples from the Sea of Marmara

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hubert-Ferrari, Aurélia; Drab, Laureen; Schmidt, Sabine; Martinez, Philippe; Carlut, Julie; El Ouahabi, Meriam

    2016-04-01

    The North Anatolian fault (NAF) in the Marmara Sea is a major strike slip fault that ruptures in large magnitude earthquakes. It crosses the Marmara Sea, which borders Istanbul and its 12 million inhabitants. The presented paleoseimological record rests upon sedimentary cores sampling the different basins. The turbidites identified at the different sites are earthquake generated, based on their particular sedimentological and geochemical signatures; the correlation of turbidites at different sites; and the match of the most recent turbidite with a nineteenth century historical earthquake. The studied earthquake induced sedimentary deposits have different origins: (1) classical thick turbidites and homegenites, (2) very thin silt-rich sedimentary layers linked to the settling of the sedimentary cloud induced by the seismic waves, (3) thin turbiditic deposits linked to reworking of sediment veneer covering slopes. In the eastern Cinarcik Basin, an accurate earthquake record was obtained using two cores that were correlated using long-term geochemical variations in the sediment. To date turbidites, we used carbon 14 and paleomagnetic data to build an OxCal model with a local reservoir correction of 400±50 yr. The Çınarcık segment is found to have ruptured in 1509 C.E., sometime in the fourteenth century, in 989 C.E., and in 740 C.E., with a mean recurrence interval in the range of 256-321 years. Finally, we used the earthquake record obtained to review the rupture history of the adjacent segments over the past 1500 years.

  17. Micro-seismicity of the submerged section of the North-Anatolian Fault within the Sea of Marmara : results from Ocean Bottom Seismometers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tary, J.; Bardainne, T.; Geli, L.; Henry, P.; Yilmazer, M.; Tryon, M.; Natalin, B.; Cagatay, N.; Burnard, P.; Bourlange, S.

    2008-12-01

    Four Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBS) were deployed for 2,5 months in the Tekirdag Basin (eastern Sea of Marmara), within the submerged section of the North Anatolian Fault. Seismological data from land stations deployed onshore by the Kandilli Earthquake Observatory (KOERI) were also used to improve the determination of the earthquake characteristics. The OBS array was centered a cold seep site located within the fault zone, which was extensively explored with submersibles, ROV in 2002 and Nautile in 2007. Near the cold seep, one piezometer and 3 flowmeters were also deployed. During the 10-weeks long deployment, the OBSs recorded a total of about 150 events from below the basin and the immediately adjacent submarine areas, while only about 50 events were recorded by the land stations. The data thus confirm previous experiments in the Marmara Sea showing the efficiency of seabottom instruments to lower the detection threshold compared to land stations. The recorded events are distributed in two groups. The first is a cluster of events located below the Western Ridge, below a zone where gas and oil seeps originating from Thrace Basin source rocks where found at the seafloor. Events of the second group are located deep in the crust and aligned along a NNE direction crossing the northern escarpment of the Tekirdag Basin. Visual observations with Nautile show that gas emissions occur through NNE oriented tensile cracks nearthe base of this escarpment. The seismological data thus suggests these cracks are the surface expression of a deep seated active fault.

  18. Marine-to-lacustrine transition, mud volcanism, and slope instability in an active tectonic setting: the MIS 5 to 4 transition in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grall, Céline; Henry, Pierre; Kendé, Julia; Namık Çaǧatay, M.; Kadir Eriş, K.; Paillès, Christine; Sorlien, Christopher; Shillington, Donna; McHugh, Cecilia; Steckler, Michael; Çifçi, Günay; Géli, Louis

    2016-04-01

    In the Sea of Marmara, glacio-eustatic cycles set the tempo of a complex history of disconnection and reconnection with the Black Sea and with the global ocean through the Mediterranean Sea. As a result, the sedimentary record consists of alternating high stand marine sediments and lowstand sea or lake sediments. The Sea of Marmara is also an active transtensional basin along the Northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault (NNAF), which accommodates most (~3/4) of the 21-27 mm/a dextral slip between Eurasia and Anatolia. This peculiar setting makes the Sea of Marmara an exceptional site to study the interplay of paleo-environmental factors and seismotectonic processes. Notably, Mass Transport Deposits (MTDs) crossing the faults provide offset markers although their age remains uncertain. A high resolution seismic stratigraphic model has been proposed for 100 ka glacial cycles, based on onlap sequences within basins, and paleo-deltas at shorelines. The sedimentation rate in basins decreases during episodes of sea-level rise and reach maximum values during low stands. Remarkably, seismic reflector sequences display nearly identical character for locations with similar sedimentation rate. The uppermost sequence boundary reflector (Red-H1) has been recently cored at several locations during MARSITECRUISE (Ifremer R/V Pourquoi Pas?, Oct-Nov. 2014), enabled us to correlate high resolution seismic data with core data. The Red-H1 reflector is regionally characterized by a high amplitude and a reverse polarity. Correlations between seismic data and piston core logs indicate that the reverse polarity of this reflector may be explained by a negative density contrast between lacustrine sediments above and a greenish sapropellic layer of several meters thickness below. On shelves, Red-H1 is on top of the low stand wedge. On slopes and topographic highs, Red-H1 appears as an erosional surface laterally correlative with an onlapping unit in basins and is frequently overlain by

  19. Methane-derived authigenic carbonates along the North Anatolian fault system in the Sea of Marmara (Turkey)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crémière, Antoine; Pierre, Catherine; Blanc-Valleron, Marie-Madeleine; Zitter, Tiphaine; Çağatay, M. Namik; Henry, Pierre

    2012-08-01

    The Marnaut cruise (May-June 2007) investigated the submerged part of the North Anatolian fault system, an active tectonic area in the Sea of Marmara. Already known and new fluid venting sites along the fault system were visited by submersible diving. Cold seeps present a considerable diversity of geochemical background associated with occurrences of authigenic carbonate crusts outcropping at the seafloor. Buried carbonate concretions were also recovered by coring within the sediments of the Tekirdağ Basin and of the Western-High ridge that separates the Tekirdağ and Central Basins. Interestingly, numerous of these early diagenetic carbonates were found within the transitional sediments from lacustrine to marine environment deposited after the late glacial maximum. The authigenic carbonates are mainly composed of aragonite, Mg-calcite and minor amounts of dolomite, and are often associated with pyrite and barite. The carbon isotopic compositions of carbonates present a wide range of values from -50.6‰ to +14.2‰ V-PDB indicating different diagenetic settings and complex mixtures of dissolved inorganic carbon from different sources. The low δ13C values of the seafloor crusts and of most buried concretions indicate that the carbon source was a mixture of microbial and thermogenic methane and possibly other hydrocarbons that were oxidized by anaerobic microbial processes. The positive δ13C values of a few buried concretions from the Western-High ridge reflect the mineralization of heavy CO2, which is thought to represent the residual by-product of oil biodegradation in a subsurface petroleum reservoir that migrated up with brines. Most of the oxygen isotopic compositions of seafloor carbonates are close to the isotopic equilibrium with the present-day bottom water conditions but a few values as low as -1.9‰ V-PDB indicate precipitation from brackish waters. In buried carbonate concretions, δ18O values as high as +4.9‰ V-PDB reflect the contribution of

  20. The Sea of Marmara, within the submerged section of the North Anatolian Fault : an unique site to study the relations between fluid seepage and seismic activity using seafloor observatories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geli, L. B.; Henry, P.; Cagatay, M.; Tryon, M. D.; Gasperini, L.

    2009-12-01

    In the deeper parts of the Sea of Marmara, fluid outflow sites manifested by carbonate crusts, black patches, and bacterial mats are commonly observed along or near active faults (e. g. Armijo et al, 2005; Zitter et al., 2008). Free gas emissions are common and appear to be influenced by earthquake occurrence. In the Gulf of Izmit, repeated surveys showed that the intensity of methane emissions increased after the August 17, 1999 earthquake. The distribution of gas seeps in the deep Sea of Marmara has been found to be uneven, with less activity on the linear fault segment crossing the Central High, which has not ruptured since 1766. In contrast bubbling was observed above a buried transtensional fault zone along the southern edge of the Cinarcik Basin, which displayed micro-seismic activity after the 1999 events. While gas emitted from the Cinarcik basin is predominantly bacterial and thus of relatively shallow origin, the hydrocarbon gases expelled in the Central and Western Sea of Marmara have a deeper, thermogenic, component (Bourry et al., 2009). On the Western High thermogenic gasses are associated with oil and form type II Gas hydrates near the seafloor. Geochemical signature indicates these hydrocarbons originate from Thrace Basin source rocks. Near the foot of the northern escarpment of the Tekirdag basin, gas bubbles of deep origin (with a mantle Helium isotope signature) have been found escaping from open fractures, oriented parallel to the direction of maximum compressive stress (Burnard et al., 2008). A swarm of microseismicity was recorded using OBSs. These observations indicate that the fluid and gas emissions in the Sea of Marmara are influenced by crustal level deformation in two ways. (1) Shallow sediment deformation causes fracture opening and promotes gas and fluid escape. This notably occurs on fault scarps of the Main Marmara Fault as well as on secondary fault branches and zones of diffuse deformation with associated microseismicity. (2

  1. Physically-Based Ground Motion Prediction and Validation A Case Study: Mid-sized Marmara Sea Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mert, A.

    2015-12-01

    In this study we have two main purposes. The first one is to simulate five midsize earthquakes (Mw≈5.0) recorded in the Marmara region, which has a geologically complex and heterogeneous crustal structure. We synthesize ground motion for the full wave train on three components, and applied a 'physics based' solution of earthquake rupture. The simulation methodology is based on the studies by Hutchings et al. (2007), Scognamiglio and Hutchings (2009). For each earthquake, we synthesized seismograms using by 500 different rupture scenarios that were generated by Monte Carlo selection of parameters within the range. Synthetic ground motion is a major challenge for seismic hazard assessment studies. Especially after the adoption of performance-based design approach with the Earthquake resistant design of engineering structures. To compute realistic time histories for different locations around Marmara region can be helpful for engineering design, retrofitting the existing structures, hazard and risk management studies and developing new seismic codes and standards.The second purpose is to validate synthetic seismograms with real seismograms. We follow the methodology presented by Anderson (2003) for validation. This methodology proposes a similarity score based on averages of the quality of fit measuring ground motion characteristics and uses a suite of measurements. Namely, the synthetics are compared to real data by ten representative ground motion criteria. The applicability of Empirical Green's functions methodology and physics based solution of earthquake rupture had been assessed in terms of modeling in complex geologic structure. Because the methodology produces source and site specific synthetic ground motion time histories and goodness-of-fit scores of obtained synthetics is between 'fair' to 'good' range based on Anderson's score, we concluded that it can be tried to produce ground motion that has not previously been recorded during catastrophic earthquake

  2. Using a Geophysical Model to Estimate the Static Coefficient of Friction and Cohesion on a Central Portion of the North Anatolian Fault East of the Marmara Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karimi, B.; McQuarrie, N.

    2012-12-01

    On August 17th, 1999, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake shook Kocaeli (Izmit), Turkey killing over 17,000 people. The epicenter was 100-km east of Turkey's largest city, Istanbul, along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) system. This 1600-km long, strike-slip boundary divides the Anatolian plate and the Eurasian plate. The NAF slips at an average rate of 2-3-cm/y, and has an estimated earthquake recurrence interval of approximately 300 years. To further understand the NAF system and its dynamics, a simplified 2-D mesh model was developed to evaluate the fault friction coefficient for various low cohesion values along an ~85-km stretch of the NAF system east of the Marmara Sea containing the Mudurnu valley between the cities of Izmit and Bolu (where the NAF splits). The NAF, in the region of interest, exhibits shorter recurrence intervals of 100-150 years over the last four centuries. In this region, two sets of faults within the NAF system converge and then diverge; one set diverges to the NW to bound the northern rim of the Marmara Sea, while the second set continues to the SW along the southern rim of the Marmara Sea. A 100 year seismic record of earthquakes between M3.0 and M9.0 supports the claim that the two sets of strike-slip faults near one another in the center of the region of interest, but do not intersect, thus defining three distinct geology provinces. A representational 2-D mesh separates the study area into three geologic provinces separated by these faults. The mesh was processed using PyLith, a finite element code tectonic deformation software. The PyLith software allows us to assign rock physics parameters of the surface geology, and relative plate motions as velocity boundary conditions. Surface geology was simplified into the three rock types, and rock physics parameters were assigned using general physical parameters for each rock type and extrapolating further data from the Canadian Rock Physics Database. An average value for density and P-wave velocity

  3. Seismicity distribution and locking depth along the Main Marmara Fault, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmittbuhl, J.; Karabulut, H.; Lengliné, O.; Bouchon, M.

    2016-03-01

    The seismicity along the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) below the Marmara Sea is analyzed during the 2007-2012 period to provide insights on the recent evolution of this important regional seismic gap. High precision locations show that seismicity is strongly varying along strike and depth providing fine details of the fault behavior that are inaccessible from geodetic observations. The activity strongly clusters at the regions of transition between basins. The Central basin shows significant seismicity located below the shallow locking depth inferred from GPS measurements. Its b-value is low and the average seismic slip is high. All observations are consistent with a deep creep of this segment. On the contrary, the Kumburgaz basin at the center of the fault shows sparse seismicity with the hallmarks of a locked segment. In the eastern Marmara Sea, the seismicity distribution along the Princes Island segment in the Cinarcik basin, is consistent with the geodetic locking depth of 10 km and a low contribution to the regional seismic energy release. The assessment of the locked segment areas provide an estimate of the magnitude of the main forthcoming event to be about 7.3 assuming that the rupture will not enter significantly within creeping domains.

  4. MARSite: Marmara as a Supersite

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meral Ozel, N.; Necmioglu, O.; Ergintav, S.; Ozel, A.; Erdik, M. O.

    2013-12-01

    The Marmara Region is one of the most active seismic regions in Turkey and also most densely populated and fast-developing part in the country. The region was effected with destructive earthquakes in its past, and the seismic hazard in Marmara Region has become a great concern especially after the Izmit and Duzce earthquakes in 1999 costing 18.000 people lives. Recent studies indicate that the region has a great potential to produce M≥7.0 earthquake within the next 30 years. Hence, a realistic assessment of the earthquake hazard in this area including Istanbul with more then 15 million inhabitants is a priority. MARsite project identifes the Marmara region as a ';Supersite' to aggregate on-shore, off-shore and space-based observations, comprehensive geophysical monitoring, improved hazard and risk assessments encompassed in an integrated set of activities. MARsite Consortium constitutes of 18 European research institutions with a long record of scientific history and success, and 3 SMEs, from 7 nations of the Euro-Mediterranean area. MARsite aims to harmonize geological, geophysical, geodetic and geochemical observations to provide a better view of the post-seismic deformation of the 1999 Izmit earthquake (in addition to the post-seismic signature of previous earthquakes), loading of submarine and inland active fault segments and transient pre-earthquake signals, related to stress loading with different tectonic properties in and around Marmara Sea. These studies are planned to contribute to high-quality rapid source-mechanism solutions and slip models, early warning and rapid-response studies. The project outputs will also be adapted to improve various phases of the risk management cycle with the creation of a link between the scientific community and end users. In this context, MARsite will develop novel geo-hazard monitoring instruments including high-resolution displacement meters, novel borehole instrumentation and sea-bottom gas emission and heat

  5. Estimation of successive coseismic vertical offsets using coeval sedimentary events - application to the southwestern limit of the Sea of Marmara's Central Basin (North Anatolian Fault)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, C.; Campos, C.; Eriş, K. K.; Çağatay, N.; Mercier de Lepinay, B.; Jouanne, F.

    2015-02-01

    In the deep part of the Sea of Marmara (Turkey), the sedimentation developing upon the North Anatolian Fault is strongly influenced by the associated seismic activity, through gravity reworking (fluidized landslides) and tsunamis. Specific layers (homogenites + turbidites, HmTu), representing individual sedimentary events, have been characterized along three giant piston cores retrieved from the Çinarcik and Central (or Orta) basins. Pre-Holocene, nonmarine sediments, were analyzed, representing the last 12-17 kyr BP (before present). For a 2 kyr long interval, 11 events could be precisely correlated on both sides of the Central Basin's southwestern scarp. For each of them, based on the specific depositional process, the thickness difference between the two sites was considered as a direct estimation of the vertical component of a coeval coseismic offset. The homogenite (upper) component accounts for the major part of the thickness difference (ranging from 36 to 144 cm). These offsets were considered as likely representing dominantly vertical throws, along the transtensional southwestern boundary of the inner, pull-apart Central Basin. In terms of natural hazards, further investigations on this local behavior should rather be directed to tsunami genesis.

  6. Estimation of successive co-seismic vertical offsets using coeval sedimentary events - application to the Sea of Marmara's Central Basin (North Anatolian Fault)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, C.; Campos, C.; Eriş, K.; Çağatay, N.; Mercier de Lepinay, B.; Jouanne, F.

    2014-06-01

    In the deep part of the Sea of Marmara (Turkey), the sedimentation developing upon the North Anatolian Fault is strongly influenced by the associated seismic activity. Specific layers (homogenites-turbidites), representing individual sedimentary events, have been characterized along three giant piston cores retrieved from Çinarcik and Central (or Orta) basins. Analyzed sediments represent the last 12 to 17 kyr BP. For a 2 kyr-lasting interval, 11 events could be precisely correlated on both sides of the Central Basin's southern scarp. For each of them, based on the specific depositional process, the thickness difference between the two sites was considered as a direct estimation of the vertical component of a coeval co-seismic offset. The homogenite (upper) term accounts for the major part of the thickness difference. The 6 most significant values range from 36 cm to 144 cm and are likely representing dominantly normal throws, with estimated paleomagnitudes (Mw) ranging from 5.9 to 6.6.

  7. Initial results from MARmara SuperSITE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Necmioglu, Ocal; Favali, Paolo; Douglas, John; Mathieu, Pierre-Philippe; Geli, Louis; Ergintav, Semih; Oguz Ozel, Asım; Tan, Onur; Gurbuz, Cemil; Erdik, Mustafa

    2014-05-01

    MARSite Project was initiated in November 2012 under the EC/FP-7 framework as an initiative towards establishment of new directions in seismic hazard assessment through focused earth observation in Marmara Region. Within MARSite, collection of the first comprehensive data set of fluids composition around the Sea of Marmara has been accomplished and first insight in the geochemical features of the fluids are expelled from tectonic structures around the Sea of Marmara. GPS time series and velocity fields are periodically updated and a project proposal has been prepared for Supersite initiative to take SAR data and integrate the results with in-situ data sets, which is accepted by the scientific committee of GEOSS. In the meantime, special focus was given to develop the processing algorithms, starting from low level atmospheric correction to high level modeling routines. Considerable progress has been made in the novel design of a multiparameter borehole system consisting of very wide dynamic range and stable borehole (VBB) broad band seismic sensor also incorporating 3-D strain meter, tilt meter, and temperature and local hydrostatic pressure measuring devices. Borehole and surface array locations and borehole bedrock depth of 137 m has been identified. A modeling scheme for the scenario earthquake simulation has been set up in order to realize processing of real-time high-rate GPS data and simulating of scenario earthquakes. The probability of occurrence for the fault segmentation in the Marmara region were calculated using the Poisson, BPT and BPT with a stress interaction models for time intervals of 5-10-30 and 50 years. High resolution seismic reflection and multibeam data in the easternmost Cinarcik basin obtained during the cruise MARMARA 2013 carried out onboard the CNR R/V Urania ship provided information on diffuse gravitational failures. An in situ multi-parameter observational system for landslide monitoring, including displacement, rainfall and seismic

  8. Fault strength in Marmara region inferred from the geometry of the principle stress axes and fault orientations: A case study for the Prince's Islands fault segment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinar, Ali; Coskun, Zeynep; Mert, Aydin; Kalafat, Dogan

    2015-04-01

    The general consensus based on historical earthquake data point out that the last major moment release on the Prince's islands fault was in 1766 which in turn signals an increased seismic risk for Istanbul Metropolitan area considering the fact that most of the 20 mm/yr GPS derived slip rate for the region is accommodated mostly by that fault segment. The orientation of the Prince's islands fault segment overlaps with the NW-SE direction of the maximum principle stress axis derived from the focal mechanism solutions of the large and moderate sized earthquakes occurred in the Marmara region. As such, the NW-SE trending fault segment translates the motion between the two E-W trending branches of the North Anatolian fault zone; one extending from the Gulf of Izmit towards Çınarcık basin and the other extending between offshore Bakırköy and Silivri. The basic relation between the orientation of the maximum and minimum principal stress axes, the shear and normal stresses, and the orientation of a fault provides clue on the strength of a fault, i.e., its frictional coefficient. Here, the angle between the fault normal and maximum compressive stress axis is a key parameter where fault normal and fault parallel maximum compressive stress might be a necessary and sufficient condition for a creeping event. That relation also implies that when the trend of the sigma-1 axis is close to the strike of the fault the shear stress acting on the fault plane approaches zero. On the other hand, the ratio between the shear and normal stresses acting on a fault plane is proportional to the coefficient of frictional coefficient of the fault. Accordingly, the geometry between the Prince's islands fault segment and a maximum principal stress axis matches a weak fault model. In the frame of the presentation we analyze seismological data acquired in Marmara region and interpret the results in conjuction with the above mentioned weak fault model.

  9. Undersea acoustic telemetry across the North Anatolian Fault, Marmara Sea: results from the first 6 months of monitoring of the fault displacement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Royer, J. Y.; Deschamps, A.; Piete, H.; Sakic, P.; Ballu, V.; Apprioual, R.; Kopp, H.; Lange, D.; Ruffine, L.; Géli, L.

    2015-12-01

    Located in the Marmara Sea, the Istanbul-Silivri segment of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is known to be a seismic gap since 1766, although, in the last century, the NAF has caused major devastating earthquakes over most of its extent. This fault segment, void of seismicity, may be either creeping aseismically or blocked and accumulating enough strain to produce an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater. This section of the NAF may thus represent a major seismic and tsunamigenic hazard for the Istanbul megalopolis, located only 40 km away. The objective of the MARSITE project, funded by the European Union and coordinated by the Observatory of the University of Kandilli (KOERI), is to determine the blocking state of the Istanbul-Silivri fault segment. In this context, an array of 10 acoustic transponders has been deployed on either sides of the fault, in the eastern part of the Kumburgaz Basin, to measure the displacements of the fault over a period of 3 to 5 years. The telemetric beacons (4 from the University of Brest and 6 from the GEOMAR Institute in Kiel) form two arrays fitted in one another. The principle of the experiment is to repeatedly measure the distance (ie two-way-travel time of acoustic pings) between pairs of beacons and thus to monitor the deformation of an array of 9 baselines, 500m to 3000m long, of which 5 cross obliquely the assumed fault trace. The French and German arrays are independent but ensure a redundancy of rangings along common baselines. Each acoustic transponder also monitors the temperature, pressure, sound-velocity and attitude (tiltmeters), every one or two hours. Data are stored in each beacon and can be downloaded from the surface using an acoustic modem. We present here the first 6 months of recording by the French array, from November 1st, 2014 to April 25, 2015. All acoustic transponders worked nominally for 6 months and appear to have remained stable on the seafloor. Recorded sea-bottom temperatures provide evidence for

  10. Reassessment of probabilistic seismic hazard in the Marmara region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kalkan, E.; Gulkan, Polat; Yilmaz, N.; Celebi, M.

    2009-01-01

    In 1999, the eastern coastline of the Marmara region (Turkey) witnessed increased seismic activity on the North Anatolian fault (NAF) system with two damaging earthquakes (M 7.4 Kocaeli and M 7.2 D??zce) that occurred almost three months apart. These events have reduced stress on the western segment of the NAF where it continues under the Marmara Sea. The undersea fault segments have been recently explored using bathymetric and reflection surveys. These recent findings helped scientists to understand the seismotectonic environment of the Marmara basin, which has remained a perplexing tectonic domain. On the basis of collected new data, seismic hazard of the Marmara region is reassessed using a probabilistic approach. Two different earthquake source models: (1) the smoothed-gridded seismicity model and (2) fault model and alternate magnitude-frequency relations, Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic, were used with local and imported ground-motion-prediction equations. Regional exposure is computed and quantified on a set of hazard maps that provide peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 sec on uniform firm-rock site condition (760 m=sec average shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m). These acceleration levels were computed for ground motions having 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yr, corresponding to return periods of about 2475 and 475 yr, respectively. The maximum PGA computed (at rock site) is 1.5g along the fault segments of the NAF zone extending into the Marmara Sea. The new maps generally show 10% to 15% increase for PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 sec spectral acceleration values across much of Marmara compared to previous regional hazard maps. Hazard curves and smooth design spectra for three site conditions: rock, soil, and soft-soil are provided for the Istanbul metropolitan area as possible tools in future risk estimates.

  11. Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey Part2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaneda, Yoshiyuki; Ozener, Haluk; Meral Özel, Nurcan

    2016-04-01

    Turkey is one of seismogenic countries with destructive earthquakes. In Turkey, the 1999 Izumit Earthquake as the destructive earthquake occurred along the North Anatolian fault. This fault is crossing the Marmara sea. In this SATREPS project, Marmara Sea should be focused on because of a seismic gap in the North Anatolian fault. Istanbul is located around the Marmara Sea, so, if next earthquake in the Marmara will occur near Istanbul, fatal damages will be generated as compound damages including Tsunami and liquefaction etc. The Japan and Turkey can share our own experiences during past damaging earthquakes and we can prepare for future large earthquakes in cooperation with each other. In earthquakes in Tokyo area and Istanbul area as the destructive earthquakes near high population cities, there are common disaster researches and measures in each country. For disaster mitigation, we are progressing multidisciplinary researches in this SATREPS project. Our goals of this SATREPS project are as follows, This project is composed of four research groups. 1) The first group is Marmara Earthquake Source region observationally research group. This group has 4 sub-themes such as Seismicity, Geodesy, Electromagnetics and Trench analyses. 2) The second group focuses on scenario researches of earthquake occurrence along the North Anatolia fault and precise tsunami simulation in the Marmara region. 3) Aims of the third group are improvements and constructions of seismic characterizations and damage predictions based on observation researches and precise simulations. 4) The fourth group is promoting disaster educations using research result visuals. In this SATREPS project, we will integrate these research results for disaster mitigation in Marmara region and disaster education in Turkey. Finally, these results and knowledges will be applied to Japanese disaster mitigation researches and disaster educations. We will have a presentation of the updated results of this SATREPS

  12. Reprocessing and Interpretation of the High Resolution Seismic Data from Northern Marmara Continental Shelf, NW Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nasif, Aslıhan; Dondurur, Derman; Ergintav, Semih; Cifci, Gunay

    2015-04-01

    The Marmara Sea is an inland sea located in the NW of Turkey with a maximum depth of 1270 m, and consists of a 3 major sub-basins. The active dextral North Anatolian Fault (NAF) passes through the basins, which shapes the general morphology and forms the tectonic settlement of the Marmara Sea. The investigations for the Marmara Sea are now important since İstanbul city, which is the most populous and economically the most important city of Turkey, is located just north of the Marmara Sea, quite close to the NAF. In order to define the morphology and structural state of the northern continental shelf of the Marmara Sea, we collected 224 km of multichannel high resolution seismic and 338 km of Chirp subbottom profiler data along the shallow shelf in 2007. A 600 m long, 96 channel digital seismic streamer, and a Generator-Injector (GI) gun was used to obtain high resolution seismic data. The Chirp data was collected a 2.75-6.75 kHz over-the-side-mount transducer system. The data have been processed using a conventional data processing flow. The scope of the present study is to re-process and to interpret the seismic and Chirp data between Silivri and Sarayburnu on the northern Marmara shelf up to 100 m water depth. The active tectonic characteristics of the area, especially its geological connection with the terrestrial area, are investigated using acoustic data. In addition, offshore continuity of the of the Çatalca Fault zone is investigated. The Çatalca Fault enters the shelf along the B. Çekmece Lake and can be tracked in the SSE direction on the seismic data. The seismic data is tied to North Marmara-1 well located on the central part of the shelf area, and distributions and thicknesses of the pre-Miocene sediments are mapped using a jump-correlation to the well information. The seismic data located at the southernmost part of the shelf along the shelf break also indicate the presence of active sediment erosion. Behind the shelf break, the slope inclination

  13. Sea Level Rise and Decadal Variations in the Ligurian Sea Inferred from the Medimaremetre Measurements.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karpytchev, M.; Coulomb, A.; Vallee, M.

    2015-12-01

    Estimations of sea level rise over the last centuries are mostly based on the rare historical sea level records from tide gauge stations usually designed for navigational purposes. In this study, we examine the quality of sea level measurements performed by a mean sea level gauge operated in Nice from 1887 to 1909 and transferred to the nearby town of Villefranche-sur-Mer in 1913 where it stayed in operation untill 1974. The mean sea level gauges, called medimaremetres, were invented for geodetic studies and installed in many French ports since the end of the XIX century. By construction, the medimaremetre was connected to the sea through a porous porcelain crucible in order to filter out the tides and higher frequency sea level oscillations. Ucontrolled properties of the crucible and some systematic errors made the medimaremetre data to be ignored in the current sea level researches. We demonstrate that the Nice-Villefranche medimaremetre measurements are coherent with two available historical tide gauge records from Marseille and Genova and a new century-scale sea level series can be build up by combining the medimaremetre data with the those recorded by a tide gauge operating in Nice since the 1980s. We analyse the low frequency variabilities in Marseille, Nice-Villefranche and Genova and get new insights on the decadal sea level variations in the Ligurian Sea since the end of the XIX century.

  14. SeaBase: a multispecies transcriptomic resource and platform for gene network inference.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Antje H L; Mozzherin, Dmitry; Eren, A Murat; Lans, Kristen D; Wilson, Nathan; Cosentino, Carlo; Smith, Joel

    2014-07-01

    Marine and aquatic animals are extraordinarily useful as models for identifying mechanisms of development and evolution, regeneration, resistance to cancer, longevity and symbiosis, among many other areas of research. This is due to the great diversity of these organisms and their wide-ranging capabilities. Genomics tools are essential for taking advantage of these "free lessons" of nature. However, genomics and transcriptomics are challenging in emerging model systems. Here, we present SeaBase, a tool for helping to meet these needs. Specifically, SeaBase provides a platform for sharing and searching transcriptome data. More importantly, SeaBase will support a growing number of tools for inferring gene network mechanisms. The first dataset available on SeaBase is a developmental transcriptomic profile of the sea anemone Nematostella vectensis (Anthozoa, Cnidaria). Additional datasets are currently being prepared and we are aiming to expand SeaBase to include user-supplied data for any number of marine and aquatic organisms, thereby supporting many potentially new models for gene network studies. SeaBase can be accessed online at: http://seabase.core.cli.mbl.edu. PMID:24907201

  15. Integrated multidisciplinary fault observation in Marmara Through MARSite - Project Achievements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meral Ozel, N.; Necmioglu, O.; Favali, P.; Ergintav, S.; Ozel, O.; Bigarré, P.; Géli, L.; Aochi, H.; Bossu, R.; Cakir, Z.; Zulfikar, C.; Sesetyan, K.; Douglas, J.

    2015-12-01

    This presentation provides overview of the achievements of the 3-year long EC/FP-7 MARSite Project started in November 2012, which aimed to coordinate research groups ranging from seismology to gas geochemistry in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed both in the Marmara Region based on collection of multidisciplinary data to be shared, interpreted and merged in consistent theoretical and practical models suitable for the implementation of good practices to move the necessary information to the end users in charge of seismic risk management of the region. In addition, processes involved in earthquake generation and the physics of short-term seismic transients, 4D deformations to understand earthquake cycle processes, fluid activity monitoring and seismicity under the sea floor using existing autonomous instrumentation, early warning and development of real-time shake and loss information, real- and quasi-real-time earthquake and tsunami hazard monitoring and earthquake-induced landslide hazard topics are also covered within MARSite. In particular, achievements and progress in the design and building of a multi-parameter borehole system consisting of very wide dynamic range and stable borehole (VBB) broad band seismic sensor, with incorporated 3-D strain meter, tilt meter, and temperature and local hydrostatic pressure measuring devices would be reported. This work is funded by the project MARsite - New Directions in Seismic Hazard assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2, Grant 308417.

  16. Modelling sea-level data from China and Malay-Thai Peninsula to infer Holocene eustatic sea-level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradley, S.; Milne, G.; Zong, Y.; Horton, B.

    2008-12-01

    Late Devensian relative sea-level observations record changes in global sea level driven by a complex interplay between tectonic, isostatic and climatic processes, and as such have been adopted in many previous modelling studies to provide information on spatial and temporal ice sheet history, rheological earth properties, and global meltwater signals. In regions distant from previously glaciated areas (so-called 'far- field sites'), sea-level observations have been used to constrain the rate and magnitude of the global eustatic sea level change, as these data are primarily sensitive to changes in the global meltwater flux (Clark et al. 1978) Constraining the eustatic component of sea level change is useful since it provides a direct measure of past continental ice volume that can be compared to results obtained from oxygen isotope methods. A second application, which is the primary focus of this study, is the inference of eustatic change during the mid-to-late Holocene. Constraining the eustaic signal provides information on both: (i) the rate and timing of major ice melting at the end of the last deglaciation and (ii) the magnitude of melting during the late Holocene. The latter is an important baseline that can be compared to estimates of global sea-level rise in the 20th century. The typical sea-level pattern at far-field locations is characterized by a steady rise to a mid- Holocene highstand, followed by a slow monotonic fall to present day levels. Previous studies have examined the spatial and temporal variations in the Holocene highstand to arrive at estimates of eustatic change in the mid-to-late Holocene (Nadaka and Lambeck 1989; Flemming et al. 1998; Lambeck 2002; Peltier 2002). While the results of these studies are broadly compatible, there remain significant discrepancies and so it is important to consider additional data to improve constraints on the eustatic signal. This study addresses this aim by considering previously un-modelled Holocene sea

  17. Frictional strength of North Anatolian fault in eastern Marmara region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pınar, Ali; Coşkun, Zeynep; Mert, Aydın; Kalafat, Doğan

    2016-04-01

    Frequency distribution of azimuth and plunges of P- and T-axes of focal mechanisms is compared with the orientation of maximum compressive stress axis for investigating the frictional strength of three fault segments of North Anatolian fault (NAF) in eastern Marmara Sea, namely Princes' Islands, Yalova-Çınarcık and Yalova-Hersek fault segments. In this frame, we retrieved 25 CMT solutions of events in Çınarcık basin and derived a local stress tensor incorporating 30 focal mechanisms determined by other researches. As for the Yalova-Çınarcık and Yalova-Hersek fault segments, we constructed the frequency distribution of P- and T-axes utilizing 111 and 68 events, respectively, to correlate the geometry of the principle stress axes and fault orientations. The analysis yields low frictional strength for the Princes' Island fault segments and high frictional strength for Yalova-Çınarcık, Yalova-Hersek segments. The local stress tensor derived from the inversion of P- and T-axes of the fault plane solutions of Çınarcık basin events portrays nearly horizontal maximum compressive stress axis oriented N154E which is almost parallel to the peak of the frequency distribution of the azimuth of the P-axes. The fitting of the observed and calculated frequency distributions is attained for a low frictional coefficient which is about μ ≈ 0.1. Evidences on the weakness of NAF segments in eastern Marmara Sea region are revealed by other geophysical observations. Our results also show that the local stress field in Çınarcık basin is rotated ≈30° clockwise compared to the regional stress tensor in Marmara region derived from the large earthquakes, whereas the local stress tensor in Yalova-Çınarcık area is found to be rotated ≈30° counterclockwise. The rotation of the two local stress fields is derived in the area where NAF bifurcates into two branches overlaying large electrical conductor.

  18. Integrated multidisciplinary fault observation in Marmara Through MARSite - Project Progress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Necmioglu, Ocal; Oguz Ozel, Asım; Ergintav, Semih; Geli, Louis Louis; Favali, Paolo; Guralp, Cansun; Douglas, John; Mathieu, Pierre-Philippe; Tan, Onur; Gürbüz, Cemil; Erdik, Mustafa

    2015-04-01

    This presentation provides a progress overview of the EC/FP-7 MARSite Project started in November 2012, which aims to coordinate research groups ranging from seismology to gas geochemistry in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed both in the Marmara Region based on collection of multidisciplinary data to be shared, interpreted and merged in consistent theoretical and practical models suitable for the implementation of good practices to move the necessary information to the end users in charge of seismic risk management of the region. In addition, processes involved in earthquake generation and the physics of short-term seismic transients, 4D deformations to understand earthquake cycle processes, fluid activity monitoring and seismicity under the sea floor using existing autonomous instrumentation, early warning and development of real-time shake and loss information, real- and quasi-real-time earthquake and tsunami hazard monitoring and earthquake-induced landslide hazard topics are also covered within MARSite. This presentation would provide a report on the progress achieved during the half-life of the project. In this respect, the main data server for the integration of real time network data has been finalized. Daily evaluation of online spring water and soil radon gas data in relation to seismic activity is in place, together with the continuous GPS data processing. A significant combination of postseismic (viscoelastic) deformation and afterslip was detected in the western segment of the 1999 Izmit rupture plane based on InSAR modeling. The optimum borehole depths have been identified based on seismic reflection studies and GURALP Systems is continuing its work on the manufacturing the borehole system. Seismic risk study for IGDAS Natural Gas Network including pipelines and its components has been carried out with several earthquake scenarios in Marmara Sea and an automatic shut-off algorithm has been developed for the automatic shut-off of the gas

  19. Integrated Multidisciplinary Fault Observation in Marmara Through MARSite

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meral Ozel, N.; Necmioglu, O.; Ozel, A. O.; Ergintav, S.; Tan, O.; Geli, L. B.; Favali, P.; Guralp, C. M.; Douglas, J.; Mathieu, P. P.; Gurbuz, C.; Erdik, M. O.

    2014-12-01

    MARSite Project, initiated in November 2012 under the EC/FP-7 framework, aims to coordinate research groups ranging from seismology to gas geochemistry in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed both in the Marmara Region based on collection of multidisciplinary data to be shared, interpreted and merged in consistent theoretical and practical models suitable for the implementation of good practices to move the necessary information to the end users in charge of seismic risk management of the region. In addition, processes involved in earthquake generation and the physics of short-term seismic transients, 4D deformations to understand earthquake cycle processes, fluid activity monitoring and seismicity under the sea floor using existing autonomous instrumentation, early warning and development of real-time shake and loss information, real- and quasi-real-time earthquake and tsunami hazard monitoring and earthquake-induced landslide hazard topics are also covered within MARSite. This presentation would provide a report on the progress achieved during the half-life of the project. In this respect, the main data server for the integration of real time network data has been finalized. Daily evaluation of online spring water and soil radon gas data in relation to seismic activity is in place, together with the continuous GPS data processing. A significant combination of postseismic (viscoelastic) deformation and afterslip was detected in the western segment of the 1999 Izmit rupture plane based on InSAR modeling. The optimum borehole depths have been identified based on seismic reflection studies and GURALP Systems is continuing its work on the manufacturing the borehole system. Seismic risk study for IGDAS Natural Gas Network including pipelines and its components has been carried out with several earthquake scenarios in Marmara Sea and an automatic shut-off algorithm has been developed for the automatic shut-off of the gas flow at the IGDAS district regulators

  20. Dynamic Topography and Sea Level Change Inferred from Dipole and Quadrupole Moments of Plate Tectonic Reconstructions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conrad, C. P.; Steinberger, B. M.; Torsvik, T. H.

    2014-12-01

    Although constraints on the history of mantle flow are difficult to obtain, tectonic reconstructions contain information about the longest wavelength patterns of mantle flow that drove plate motions in the past. To examine the influence of this long-wavelength flow on global geodynamics, we computed the dipole and quadrupole moments (harmonic degrees 1 and 2) of the spherical vector fields associated with tectonic reconstructions of plate motions back to 250 Ma. Areas of dipole or quadrupole divergence lie above regions of major mantle upwelling, and convergence regions reside atop major mantle downwellings. To constrain the time-dependence of dynamic topography associated with these upwellings and downwellings, we used a numerical model of present-day mantle flow to relate degree-1 and degree-2 patterns of dynamic topography to the orientations and amplitudes of the dipole and quadrupole moments of present-day plate motions. We then apply this relationship to the dipole and quadrupole moments of past plate motions to compute the long-wavelength components of dynamic topography for the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. Continental motions over this time-evolving dynamic topography predict patterns of continental uplift and subsidence that can be related to geological observations of continental surfaces relative to sea level. Net uplift or subsidence of the global seafloor can also induce eustatic sea level changes. We infer that dispersal of the Pangean supercontinent away from upwelling beneath Africa may have exposed the seafloor to an increasingly larger area of positive dynamic topography since the early Mesozoic that has caused up to 100 m of sea level rise during this time period. This component of sea level change helps to balance observations of Cretaceous and Cenozoic sea level change with an estimated total sea level budget that includes concurrent tectonic and climatic influences that produce sea level drop of up to ~250 m.

  1. Long-lasting seismic repeaters in the Central Basin of the Main Marmara Fault

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmittbuhl, J.; Karabulut, H.; Lengliné, O.; Bouchon, M.

    2016-09-01

    The Main Marmara Fault which crosses the whole Marmara Sea is a significant seismic gap along the North Anatolian Fault. Here we show that nine long-lasting strike-slip seismic repeaters exist below the Central Basin within the seismogenic zone, in a 10 km region where deep creep was previously suggested from the analysis of the local seismicity. The typical recurrence time was 8 months during the 2008-2015 period. The cumulative slip of the repeating sequence appears to be compatible with the regional geodetic slip rate if they are assumed to be part of a large single asperity (10 km). The repeaters also exhibit short-term crises and are possibly related to bursts of creep.

  2. Eastern Mediterranean Sea circulation inferred from the conditions of S1 sapropel deposition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tachikawa, K.; Vidal, L.; Cornuault, M.; Garcia, M.; Pothin, A.; Sonzogni, C.; Bard, E.; Menot, G.; Revel, M.

    2014-12-01

    Holocene Eastern Mediterranean Sea sediments contain an organic-rich sapropel S1 layer that was formed in oxygen-depleted waters. The spatial distribution of this layer revealed that during S1 deposition deep waters were permanently anoxic below 1800 m in water depth. To provide further insight into past Eastern Mediterranean Sea circulation, a multi-proxy approach was applied to a core retrieved close to the 1800 m boundary (at 1780 m). We measured the bulk sediment elemental composition, the stable isotopic composition of the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber, and the abundance of benthic foraminifera since the last deglaciation. The result indicates that authigenic U and Mo accumulation began around 13-12 cal ka BP, in concert with surface water freshening estimated from the G. ruber δ18O record. The onset of bottom/pore water oxygen depletion occurred prior to S1 deposition inferred from barium enrichment. In the middle of the S1 deposition period, between 9 and 8 cal ka BP, reduced authigenic V, Fe and As contents and Br / Cl ratio indicated short-term bottom water re-oxygenation. A sharp Mn peak and maximal abundance for benthic foraminifera marked a total recovery for circulation at approximately 7 cal ka BP. Based on our results and existing data, we suggest that S1 formation withinthe upper 1780 m of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea was preconditioned by reduced ventilation, resulting from excess fresh water inputs due to insolation changes under deglacial conditions, that initiated between 15 and 12 ka. Short-term re-oxygenation in the Levantine Basin is estimated to have affected bottom water below and above the anoxic boundary. We tentatively propose that complete ventilation recovery at the S1 termination was attained earlier within the upper 1780 m than at deeper water depths. Our results provided new constraints for eastern Mediterranean Sea thermohaline circulation.

  3. Inference of optical properties from radiation profiles within melting landfast sea ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehn, J. K.; Papakyriakou, T. N.; Barber, D. G.

    2008-09-01

    Vertical in-ice spectral radiation profiles were measured within melting 1.5- to 1.7-m-thick landfast sea ice in western Hudson Bay on 25 April 2005. Because the surface ice was subject to extensive melting and refreezing, the sea ice had fractioned into two main types, i.e., areas of more reflective white ice and less reflective blue ice. The shortwave albedo was about 0.69 for white ice and 0.47 for bare blue ice. The corresponding shortwave transmittance through the ice cover was about 0.02 and 0.09, respectively. The inherent optical properties of the sea ice were inferred by tying the input and output of radiative transfer simulations to the radiation profiles and the ice physical properties, as well as to the irradiance measurements above and below the ice cover. To explain observed spectral albedo and transmittance simultaneously, the ice/snow above the interior ice was divided into three layers on the basis of the following observations: snow (white ice) or a thin soot containing layer (blue ice), drained ice above and saturated ice below the waterline. Similarly, the bottom portion was divided on the basis of the presence of a living ice algae layer adjacent to the seawater interface and a layer extending 30 cm above the bottom containing mostly detrital matter. The interior of the ice, i.e., roughly 20-40 cm from boundaries, was well-represented by a single layer of pure sea ice as the radiation field was nearly asymptotic and the absorption spectra showed little evidence of impurities. Representative values for the scattering coefficient ranged 600-800 m-1, with a Henyey-Greenstein asymmetry parameter of 0.995. Observations within white ice suggest that about 40% of the energy responsible of the internal melting was provided directly by shortwave radiation, while the rest is due to heat conduction.

  4. Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing Derived from Sea WiFS-Inferred Aerosol Optical Properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Ming-Dah; Chan, Pui-King; Wang, Menghua

    1999-01-01

    Aerosol optical properties inferred from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) radiance measurements are used to compute the aerosol shortwave radiative forcing using a radiative transfer model. The aerosol optical thickness at the wavelength of 865-nm is taken from the SeaWIFS archive. It is found that the nominal optical thickness over oceans ranges from 0.1 to 0.2. Using a maritime aerosol model and the radiances measured at the various SeaWiFS channels, the Angstrom exponent is determined to be 0.2174, the single-scattering albedo to be 0.995, and the asymmetry factor to be 0.786. The radiative transfer model has eight bands in the visible and ultraviolet spectral regions and three bands in the near infrared. It includes the absorption due to aerosols, water vapor, carbon dioxide, and oxygen, and the scattering due to aerosols and gases (Rayleigh scattering). The radiative forcing is computed over global oceans for four months (January, April, July, and October, 1998) to represent four seasons. It is found that the aerosol radiative forcing is large and changes significantly with seasons near the continents with large-scale forest fires and desert dust. Averaged over oceans and the four months, the aerosol radiative forcing is approximately 7 W/sq m at the top of the atmosphere. This large radiative forcing is expected to have a significant cooling effect on the Earth's climate as implied from simulations of a number of general circulation models.

  5. PSHA for Strong Ground-Motion Hazards in Marmara Region, Turkey with Physically-based Ground Motion Prediction Methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mert, A.; Fahjan, Y.; Hutchings, L. J.

    2014-12-01

    We perform a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for strong ground motion within the Marmara region, Turkey, from potential earthquakes along the North Anatolian fault segments in and around Marmara Sea. Because of the increasing awareness of earthquake threat in the Marmara Region, the need for seismic hazard studies has become progressively more important for planning risk reduction actions. We perform the PSHA utilizing empirical Green's functions (EGFs) along with models of finite rupture in place of standard "attenuation relations". The important aspect of this study is that we combined the basic PSHA with ground motion simulations and obtained hazard analysis for all significant magnitude earthquakes, and provide the necessary full-waveform simulated ground motions to calculate building response, and thus risk. Recordings of small earthquakes from a local seismic array operated by Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) were used as EGFs. Over the past 50 years, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been based upon estimating annual frequency of exceedance for a ground-motion parameter at a particular site (i.e., a hazard curve, Cornell, 1968). In the present study, we estimated the seismic hazard in Marmara Region and we expand and utilize the "physically based" approach proposed by Hutchings et al. (2007), Scognamiglio and Hutchings (2009). This approach replaces the aleatory uncertainty that current PSHA studies estimate by regression of empirical parameters with epistemic uncertainty that is expressed by the variability in the physical parameters of earthquake rupture. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced by further research. By 'physically based' we refer to ground motion synthesized with quasi-dynamic rupture models derived from physics and an understanding of earthquake process. This methodology provides source- and site-specific calculations of full-waveform ground motion time histories, which is important

  6. Abrupt Changes in the Marmara Pelagic Ecosystem during the recent jellyfish Liriope tetraphylla invasion and mucilage events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erkan Kideys, Ahmet; Yüksek, Ahsen; Sur, Halil Ibrahim

    2013-04-01

    In this study, meteorological and hydrographical conditions as well as chemical and biological parameters have been examined for the period 2005-2009 to determine the impact and cause of the massive mucilage phenomenon observed in the Sea of Marmara in October 2007. Results showed that there is a decrease pattern in chl concentration as well as both phytoplankton and zooplankton abundances from August till October in 2007 whilst the jellyfish Liriope tetraphylla had bloom levels. This period coincided with the maximum intensity of pelagic fishing throughout the years. Nitrogen/phosphate ratio increased prior to the mucilage formation. Invasive Liriope tetraphylla abundance increased exponentially in August and died in masses as a result of starvation and meteorological / oceanographic conditions. In October, following the mucilage matter production another new species for the region Gonyaulax fragilis was observed in high abundance through the basin. It is worthy to note that during basin wide samplings conducted in the Sea of Marmara in both 2005 and 2006, high abundances of Liriope tetraphylla have been detected particularly at the northern parts where no mucilage event was observed. We suggest that overfishing in the Sea of Marmara provided a ground for the establishment of the invasive jellyfish and accompanying mucilage event was due to by synergic combinations of several factors.

  7. Groundwater temperature transients on the Armutlu peninsula, eastern Marmara region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woith, Heiko; Caka, Deniz; Seyis, Cemil; Italiano, Francesco; Celik, Cengiz; Wang, Rongjiang; Baris, Serif

    2016-04-01

    Since many years MAM and GFZ in co-operation with Kocaeli University (KU) operate fluid monitoring stations around the Sea of Marmara. In the frame of MARsite (MARsite has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308417) these networks were jointly evaluated for the first time. The on-land fluid monitoring networks continuously monitor the following parameters: soil radon (21 sites), temperature and conductivity of thermal springs (9 sites) operated by MAM covering the whole Marmara region; fluid pressure and water level/temperature (8 sites) within ARNET operated by GFZ/KU. ARNET is a combined seismological/hydrogeological monitoring network covering the Armutlu peninsula located SE of Istanbul. Additional to the geothermal wells and springs - our main target to detect transients of potentially seismo-tectonic origin - three shallow groundwater wells (tenth of meters deep) are being operated to identify and quantify seasonal variations, and meteorological influences like rainfall and snowmelt. But it turned out that these shallow aquifer systems showed very stable conditions with very small annual temperature amplitudes (0.2 - 0.3°C). One of these shallow monitoring wells is located just south of Lake Iznik (in the village of Sölöz) very close to the southern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. Water level showed a steady decreasing trend since June 2012. This trend resulted in a data gap starting in January 2014, when the water level dropped below the sensor position. After adjusting the sensor position, positive spikes in the borehole temperature were recorded in June and August 2014, and again in 2015. The spikes are characterised by a sharp temperature increase followed by a decay lasting several days until the pre-event temperature was reached again. Since the spikes occurred on two independent logger systems, and since they lasted several days, a

  8. New Directions in Seismic Hazard Assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the MARmara SuperSITE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Necmioglu, Ocal; Favali, Paolo; Douglas, John; Mathieu, Pierre Philippe; Geli, Louis; Tan, Onur; Ergintav, Semih; Oguz Ozel, A.; Gurbuz, Cemil; Erdik, Mustafa

    2013-04-01

    Among the regions around the Mediterranean Sea for which earthquakes represent a major threat to their social and economic development, the area around the Marmara Sea, one of the most densely populated parts of Europe, is subjected to a high level of seismic hazard. For this region the MARSITE project is proposed with the aim of assessing the "state of the art" of seismic risk evaluation and management at European level. This will be the starting point to move a "step forward" towards new concepts of risk mitigation and management by long-term monitoring activities carried out both on land and at sea. MARsite will serve as the platform for an integrated, multidisciplinary, holistic and articulated framework for dealing with fault zone monitoring, capable of developing the next generation of observatories to study earthquake generation processes. The main progress will be the fusion of ground- and space-based monitoring systems dedicated to geo-hazard monitoring. All data (space/sea-bottom/seismology/borehole/geochemistry) will flow to KOERI and hosted in and served via a secure server. The MARSITE project aims to coordinate research groups with different scientific skills (from seismology to engineering to gas geochemistry) in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed both in the Marmara Sea and in the surrounding urban and country areas. The project collects multidisciplinary data, to be shared, interpreted and merged in consistent theoretical and practical models suitable for the implementation of good practices to move the necessary information to the end users in charge of seismic risk management of the Istanbul-Marmara Sea area. Marsite is divided into eleven work packages that consider the processes involved in earthquake generation and the physics of short-term seismic transients, 4D deformations to understand earthquake cycle processes, fluid activity monitoring and seismicity under the sea floor using existing autonomous instrumentation, early warning

  9. The effect of Marmara (Izmit) Earthquake on the chemical oceanography of Izmit Bay, Turkey.

    PubMed

    Balkis, Nuray

    2003-07-01

    After the Marmara (Izmit) Earthquake (magnitude 7.4) on 17 August 1999, chemical oceanographical characteristics of Izmit Bay were investigated in order to examine the possible effects of the refinery fire and uncontrolled entrance of domestic wastes to the surface waters. The dissolved oxygen (DO) content of the water column in August 1999 was the lowest value of all the measurement periods. It was found to be lower than the detection limit of the method (0.03 mgl(-1)) in the lower layer of eastern and central basins of the Bay, whereas the dissolved hydrogen sulfide (DHS) values were high, varying between 0.14 and 1.28 mgl(-1). The deficiency of DO and in turn formation of DHS were caused by the spreading petroleum from the refinery fire onto the sea surface and waste loads from the damaged municipal waste effluent system. The increasing organic/inorganic loads into the Bay stimulated the phytoplankton blooms which cause locally saturated DO concentrations in the eastern basin during autumn 1999. DO concentrations increased in lower layer waters during winter, whilst DHS formation disappeared when water originating from the Marmara Sea replenish the water column of Izmit Bay. However, DHS formation established again in August 2000.

  10. Ground motion simulations in Marmara (Turkey) region from 3D finite difference method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aochi, Hideo; Ulrich, Thomas; Douglas, John

    2016-04-01

    In the framework of the European project MARSite (2012-2016), one of the main contributions from our research team was to provide ground-motion simulations for the Marmara region from various earthquake source scenarios. We adopted a 3D finite difference code, taking into account the 3D structure around the Sea of Marmara (including the bathymetry) and the sea layer. We simulated two moderate earthquakes (about Mw4.5) and found that the 3D structure improves significantly the waveforms compared to the 1D layer model. Simulations were carried out for different earthquakes (moderate point sources and large finite sources) in order to provide shake maps (Aochi and Ulrich, BSSA, 2015), to study the variability of ground-motion parameters (Douglas & Aochi, BSSA, 2016) as well as to provide synthetic seismograms for the blind inversion tests (Diao et al., GJI, 2016). The results are also planned to be integrated in broadband ground-motion simulations, tsunamis generation and simulations of triggered landslides (in progress by different partners). The simulations are freely shared among the partners via the internet and the visualization of the results is diffused on the project's homepage. All these simulations should be seen as a reference for this region, as they are based on the latest knowledge that obtained during the MARSite project, although their refinement and validation of the model parameters and the simulations are a continuing research task relying on continuing observations. The numerical code used, the models and the simulations are available on demand.

  11. The effect of Marmara (Izmit) Earthquake on the chemical oceanography of Izmit Bay, Turkey.

    PubMed

    Balkis, Nuray

    2003-07-01

    After the Marmara (Izmit) Earthquake (magnitude 7.4) on 17 August 1999, chemical oceanographical characteristics of Izmit Bay were investigated in order to examine the possible effects of the refinery fire and uncontrolled entrance of domestic wastes to the surface waters. The dissolved oxygen (DO) content of the water column in August 1999 was the lowest value of all the measurement periods. It was found to be lower than the detection limit of the method (0.03 mgl(-1)) in the lower layer of eastern and central basins of the Bay, whereas the dissolved hydrogen sulfide (DHS) values were high, varying between 0.14 and 1.28 mgl(-1). The deficiency of DO and in turn formation of DHS were caused by the spreading petroleum from the refinery fire onto the sea surface and waste loads from the damaged municipal waste effluent system. The increasing organic/inorganic loads into the Bay stimulated the phytoplankton blooms which cause locally saturated DO concentrations in the eastern basin during autumn 1999. DO concentrations increased in lower layer waters during winter, whilst DHS formation disappeared when water originating from the Marmara Sea replenish the water column of Izmit Bay. However, DHS formation established again in August 2000. PMID:12837305

  12. Tectonic imprints upon inferences of eustatic sea level history: the Pliocene warm period and the Orangeburg Scarp

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chandan, D.; Peltier, W. R.

    2013-12-01

    The issue of tectonic contamination of geological inferences of relative sea level history is an important one. The issue arises on timescales that range from the 21-26 kyrs that have passed since the Last Glacial Maximum, to the most recent time when periods as warm as the present are expected to have existed, such as the mid-Pliocene. The coral based record from Barbados, for example, is known to be contaminated by continuing tectonic uplift of the island at a rate of approximately 0.34 mm/yr. For the Pliocene warm period at ~3 Myr, records from geological sites, such as the Orangeburg Scarp in North Carolina, have played a prominent role in arguments underpinning the design of the ongoing international PlioMIP program. In connection with the latter site, Rowley et al (2013) have recently argued that this record is contaminated by a tectonic imprint sufficiently strong to suggest that the usual inferences of Pliocene eustatic sea level based upon it (eg. Miller et al, 2012) must be seen as highly suspect. Here we employ a tomographically constrained model of the mantle convection process to revisit the issue of the tectonic imprint on relative sea level at the Orangeburg site, as well as other similar locations. Our analysis is based upon the inferred time dependence of dynamic topography forced by the mantle's internal density heterogeneities delivered by the S20RTS seismic tomography model. We begin by comparing the static, present day dynamic topography predicted by the (linear) internal loading theory based on the formalism of Pari and Peltier (2000) with that predicted using using a full three dimensional version of the nonlinear time-dependent mantle convection model of Shahnas and Peltier (2010, 2011). We demonstrate first that these two methodologies produce extremely similar results for the static field. We then proceed to run the nonlinear convection model in data assimilation mode while continuously nudging the internal density field back towards the

  13. Quantitative geomorphology of the eastern Marmara region, NW Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tari, U.; Tuysuz, O.

    2003-04-01

    The North Anatolian Fault, one of the longest and most active strike-slip faults of the world, is an important feature controlling the recent tectonic and morphological development of the northern part of Asia Minor. Along this 1500 km-long active dextral zone, best examples of pull-apart basins, push-up structures, and other strike-slip fault-related morphological features developed under the control of geometric and structural orientation of fault segments. The North Anatolian Fault splays into three main branches in the Northwestern Anatolia. According to GPS measurements, the northern branch is the most active one among the others. The Sea of Marmara and the Gulf of Izmit forming its eastern tip, were developed as pull-apart basins on this branch from Late Pliocene onward. The morphology and bathymetry of the region bear traces of the fault and fault-controlled morphological features. The morphometry of a landscape can be described as a function of the changes in elevation. Digital elevation models, and recently developed computer programs allow detailed analysis. In this study we evaluated morphometric analysis of an area between Gulf of Izmit and Adapazari pull-apart basin on the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault. The area contains three east-west trending belts. The northern belt, the Kocaeli Peninsula, developed as a peneplain during the Late Miocene. The average height of this peneplain is about 150-200 m. The peneplain surface is delimited to the south by a degraded fault surface trending parallel to the recently active branch of the North Anatolian Fault. The peneplain has an asymmetric nature indicating a northward tilting, most probably due to the development of this fault. The valleys facing to the Gulf of Izmit are mainly short and immature, and degraded the fault surfaces. In contrast, the valleys facing to the Black Sea to the north are long, asymmetric and deeply incised into the peneplain. The southern belt, the Samanli Mountains which

  14. Thin Sea-Ice Thickness as Inferred from Passive Microwave and In Situ Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Naoki, Kazuhiro; Ukita, Jinro; Nishio, Fumihiko; Nakayama, Masashige; Comiso, Josefino C.; Gasiewski, Al

    2007-01-01

    Since microwave radiometric signals from sea-ice strongly reflect physical conditions of a layer near the ice surface, a relationship of brightness temperature with thickness is possible especially during the early stages of ice growth. Sea ice is most saline during formation stage and as the salinity decreases with time while at the same time the thickness of the sea ice increases, a corresponding change in the dielectric properties and hence the brightness temperature may occur. This study examines the extent to which the relationships of thickness with brightness temperature (and with emissivity) hold for thin sea-ice, approximately less than 0.2 -0.3 m, using near concurrent measurements of sea-ice thickness in the Sea of Okhotsk from a ship and passive microwave brightness temperature data from an over-flying aircraft. The results show that the brightness temperature and emissivity increase with ice thickness for the frequency range of 10-37 GHz. The relationship is more pronounced at lower frequencies and at the horizontal polarization. We also established an empirical relationship between ice thickness and salinity in the layer near the ice surface from a field experiment, which qualitatively support the idea that changes in the near-surface brine characteristics contribute to the observed thickness-brightness temperature/emissivity relationship. Our results suggest that for thin ice, passive microwave radiometric signals contain, ice thickness information which can be utilized in polar process studies.

  15. Constraining coastal change: A morpho-sedimentological concept to infer sea-level oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mauz, Barbara; Shen, Zhixiong

    2016-04-01

    One of the responders to Milankovitch-scale climate changes is sea level which, in turn, is a driver of coastal change. In literature, the sedimentary sequences representing the coastal change are often linked to high sea-level stands, to intermediate sea-level positions or to regressive shorelines. We note apparent contradictions that indicate a lack of concept and inconsistent usage of sea level-related terms. To overcome this, we combine an integrated morpho-sedimentological concept for microtidal, mid-latitudinal coasts with chronologies based on Bayesian statistics. The concept regards the coastal sedimentary system as a depositional complex consisting of shallow-marine, aeolian and alluvial facies. These facies are in juxtaposition and respond simultaneously to external forcing. Bayesian statistics constrains the timing of the sequence based on optical or radiocarbon ages. Here, we present the site Hergla located on the North African coast of the central Mediterranean Sea as a case study to illustrate how the approach helps eliminating contradictions. The site has been cited frequently for confirming the hypothesis of a global two peak sea-level highstand during the last interglacial (MIS 5e). The ~2 km cliff exposure at Hergla was surveyed, mapped, logged and sampled for further describing the sediments and their depositional environment through thin section and Bayesian modelling of optical ages. Using our concept based on sequence stratigraphy tools, the section is interpreted as representing a coastal barrier with two bounding surfaces in the succession. Both surfaces mark the falling sea level of, first, MIS 5e and, second, MIS 5a and hence bound the falling stage system tract of a forced regression. Part of the deposits between the two surfaces are pulled up onto the shoulder of a small rising horst and the associated tectonic event coincided with the MIS 5a sea-level rise enhancing locally the accommodation space for a second foreshore environment. Our

  16. Tectonic evolution of the Salton Sea inferred from seismic reflection data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brothers, D.S.; Driscoll, N.W.; Kent, G.M.; Harding, A.J.; Babcock, J.M.; Baskin, R.L.

    2009-01-01

    Oblique extension across strike-slip faults causes subsidence and leads to the formation of pull-apart basins such as the Salton Sea in southern California. The formation of these basins has generally been studied using laboratory experiments or numerical models. Here we combine seismic reflection data and geological observations from the Salton Sea to understand the evolution of this nascent pull-apart basin. Our data reveal the presence of a northeast-trending hinge zone that separates the sea into northern and southern sub-basins. Differential subsidence (10 mm yr 1) in the southern sub-basin suggests the existence of northwest-dipping basin-bounding faults near the southern shoreline, which may control the spatial distribution of young volcanism. Rotated and truncated strata north of the hinge zone suggest that the onset of extension associated with this pull-apart basin began after 0.5 million years ago. We suggest that slip is partitioned spatially and temporally into vertical and horizontal domains in the Salton Sea. In contrast to previous models based on historical seismicity patterns, the rapid subsidence and fault architecture that we document in the southern part of the sea are consistent with experimental models for pull-apart basins. ?? 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited.

  17. Variation in winter diet of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears inferred from stable isotope analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bentzen, T.W.; Follmann, E.H.; Amstrup, Steven C.; York, G.S.; Wooller, M.J.; O'Hara, T. M.

    2007-01-01

    Ringed seals (Phoca hispida Schreber, 1775 = Pusa hispida (Schreber, 1775)) and bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus (Erxleben, 1777)) represent the majority of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus Phipps, 1774) annual diet. However, remains of lower trophic level bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus L., 1758) are available in the southern Beaufort Sea and their dietary contribution to polar bears has been unknown. We used stable isotope (13C/12C, δ13C, 15N/14N, and δ15N) analysis to determine the diet composition of polar bears sampled along Alaska’s Beaufort Sea coast in March and April 2003 and 2004. The mean δ15N values of polar bear blood cells were 19.5‰ (SD = 0.7‰) in 2003 and 19.9‰ (SD = 0.7‰) in 2004. Mixing models indicated bowhead whales composed 11%–26% (95% CI) of the diets of sampled polar bears in 2003, and 0%–14% (95% CI) in 2004. This suggests significant variability in the proportion of lower trophic level prey in polar bear diets among individuals and between years. Polar bears depend on sea ice for hunting seals, and the temporal and spatial availabilities of sea ice are projected to decline. Consumption of low trophic level foods documented here suggests bears may increasingly scavenge such foods in the future.

  18. Subglacial hydraulic conditions of the former Barents Sea Ice Sheet inferred from meltwater landforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shackleton, Calvin; Bjarnadóttir, Lilja; Winsborrow, Monica; Esteves, Mariana; Andreassen, Karin

    2016-04-01

    A large multibeam dataset acquired by the MAREANO programme covering over 24,000 km2 at 5 m horizontal resolution has uncovered abundant subglacial meltwater landforms in the central Barents Sea. These landforms provide unprecedented insights into the nature of hydrological systems operating at the bed of the former Barents Sea Ice Sheet, helping us to understand the subglacial environments of marine based ice sheets as a whole. Large sinuous features up to 3.5 km wide and over 40 km long, with depths up to 40 m are interpreted as braided tunnel valleys, which would have drained vast amounts of water at the base of the ice sheet. Dendritic channels are also common, up to 42 km long and 24 m deep, along with several anastomosing channels and numerous complex esker systems. These features document that a wide range of subglacial hydraulic conditions and a well-established meltwater system existed beneath the former Barents Sea Ice Sheet. In conjunction with mapping of glacial landforms, these meltwater features provide the basis for a reconstruction of the subglacial drainage systems in the central Barents Sea and their interaction with the dynamic activity of the overlying ice sheet.

  19. Precipitation regimes in the Levant during the Holocene inferred from Dead Sea lake levels and stochastic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morin, Efrat; Ryb, Tamar; Gavrieli, Ittai; Enzel, Yehouda

    2016-04-01

    The Dead Sea is a terminal lake of one of the largest watersheds in the Levant (~43,000 square km), draining sub-humid to hyperarid climate zones. The large size of the watershed and the synchronous regional pattern of annual precipitation are the main reasons that the Dead Sea lake levels are good proxies for the Levant precipitation. Since the mid-1960s intensive water diversions from this watershed caused a dramatic human-induced level drop (currently >1 m/year). Holocene lake levels were used to infer regional precipitation regimes. Previous studies have associated lake level rises and drops with past wet and dry periods in the region, but their quantitative assessment remains a challenge. Moreover, the attributing of lake levels alterations to changes in precipitation regime still misses natural precipitation variability and there is a need to identify and separate their effects. The current study confronts these basic challenges that underlie the transfer of proxy to climatic parameter procedures. It uses here a unique stochastic framework under which we link precipitation regime with the Dead Sea lake levels, considering changes and trends in both mean and variance. Then we infer Levant precipitation regime during the Holocene. The present mean and variance of annual precipitation and lake levels are represented by (a) Kfar Giladi rain station, determined as the best correlated with natural Dead Sea lake level changes, and, (b) using a water balance model; this allowed simulating mean and variance of annual lake levels. Stochastic simulations included scenarios of changes in precipitation regime considering both constant and trended mean annual precipitation. We assessed probabilities of obtaining specific rises and drops, derived from reconstructed Holocene lake levels, under diverse scenarios. The results suggest that late Holocene precipitation regime could be governed by periods of increasing and decreasing trends of mean annual precipitation in the

  20. Central Asian sand seas climate change as inferred from OSL dating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maman, Shimrit; Tsoar, Haim; Blumberg, Dan; Porat, Naomi

    2014-05-01

    Luminescence dating techniques have become more accessible, widespread, more accurate and support studies of climate change. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) is used to determine the time elapsed since quartz grains were last exposed to sunlight, before they were buried and the dune stabilized. Many sand seas have been dated extensively by luminescence, e.g., the Kalahari, Namib the Australian linear dunes and the northwestern Negev dune field, Israel. However, no ages were published so far from the central Asian sand seas. The lack of dune stratigraphy and numerical ages precluded any reliable assessment of the paleoclimatic significance of dunes in central Asia. Central Asian Sand seas (ergs) have accumulated in the Turan basin, north-west of the Hindu Kush range, and span from south Turkmenistan to the Syr-Darya River in Kazakhstan. These ergs are dissected by the Amu-Darya River; to its north lies the Kyzylkum (red sands) and to its south lies the Karakum (black sands). Combined, they form one of the largest sand seas in the world. This area is understudied, and little information has been published regarding the sands stabilization processes and deposition ages. In this study, OSL ages for the Karakum and Kyzylkum sands are presented and analysis of the implications of these results is provided. Optical dates obtained in this study are used to study the effects climatic changes had on the mobility and stability of the central Asian sand seas. Optically stimulated luminescence ages derived from the upper meter of the interdune of 14 exposed sections from both ergs, indicate extensive sand and dune stabilization during the mid-Holocene. This stabilization is understood to reflect a transition to a warmer, wetter, and less windy climate that generally persisted until today. The OSL ages, coupled with a compilation of regional paleoclimatic data, corroborate and reinforce the previously proposed Mid-Holocene Liavliakan phase, known to reflect a warmer

  1. Characteristics of short-period internal waves in the Kara Sea inferred from satellite SAR data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozlov, I. E.; Kudryavtsev, V. N.; Zubkova, E. V.; Zimin, A. V.; Chapron, B.

    2015-12-01

    In this paper we present the results of short-period internal wave (SIW) observations in the Kara Sea on the basis of satellite ENVISAT ASAR data between July and October 2007. Altogether, 248 internal wave (IW) packets and solitons are identified in 89 SAR images. Detailed spatial statistics of IW signatures and their properties in the Kara Sea is presented. The primary regions of IW activity are the areas near the Kara Gates Strait, the southeastern part of the Novaya Zemlya Trough, and in the vicinity of Cape Zhelaniya. We identify the regions where large IW packets are observed with wavelengths up to 2-3 km and the front length exceeding 200 km. The mean interpacket distance for observed IWs is about 20 km, but it may reach 50-60 km. Consequent IW packets are observed to travel up to 500 km from the presumed generation points. The results of satellite observations are compared with results of previous studies.

  2. Distribution and ventilation of water masses in the western Ross Sea inferred from CFC measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivaro, Paola; Ianni, Carmela; Magi, Emanuele; Massolo, Serena; Budillon, Giorgio; Smethie, William M.

    2015-03-01

    During the CLIMA Project (R.V. Italica cruise PNRA XVI, January-February 2001), hydrographic and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) observations were obtained, particularly in the western Ross Sea. Their distribution demonstrated water mass structure and ventilation processes in the investigated areas. In the surface waters (AASW) the CFC saturation levels varied spatially: CFCs were undersaturated in all the areas (range from 80 to 90%), with the exception of few stations sampled near Ross Island. In particular, the Terra Nova Bay polynya, where high salinity shelf water (HSSW) is produced, was a low-saturated surface area (74%) with respect to CFCs. Throughout most of the shelf area, the presence of modified circumpolar deep water (MCDW) was reflected in a mid-depth CFC concentration minima. Beneath the MCDW, CFC concentrations generally increased in the shelf waters towards the seafloor. We estimated that the corresponding CFCs saturation level in the source water region for HSSW was about 68-70%. Waters with high CFC concentrations were detected in the western Ross Sea on the down slope side of the Drygalski Trough, indicating that AABW was being supplied to the deep Antarctic Basin. Estimates of ventilation ages depend strongly on the saturation levels. We calculated ventilation ages using the saturation level calibrated tracer ratio, CFC11/CFC12. We deduced a mean residence time of the shelf waters of about 6-7 years between the western Ross Sea source and the shelf break.

  3. Ice shelves in the Pleistocene Arctic Ocean inferred from glaciogenic deep-sea bedforms.

    PubMed

    Polyak, L; Edwards, M H; Coakley, B J; Jakobsson, M

    2001-03-22

    It has been proposed that during Pleistocene glaciations, an ice cap of 1 kilometre or greater thickness covered the Arctic Ocean. This notion contrasts with the prevailing view that the Arctic Ocean was covered only by perennial sea ice with scattered icebergs. Detailed mapping of the ocean floor is the best means to resolve this issue. Although sea-floor imagery has been used to reconstruct the glacial history of the Antarctic shelf, little data have been collected in the Arctic Ocean because of operational constraints. The use of a geophysical mapping system during the submarine SCICEX expedition in 1999 provided the opportunity to perform such an investigation over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean. Here we analyse backscatter images and sub-bottom profiler records obtained during this expedition from depths as great as 1 kilometre. These records show multiple bedforms indicative of glacial scouring and moulding of sea floor, combined with large-scale erosion of submarine ridge crests. These distinct glaciogenic features demonstrate that immense, Antarctic-type ice shelves up to 1 kilometre thick and hundreds of kilometres long existed in the Arctic Ocean during Pleistocene glaciations.

  4. Black Sea biogeochemistry: response to decadal atmospheric variability during 1960-2000 inferred from numerical modeling.

    PubMed

    He, Yunchang; Stanev, Emil V; Yakushev, Evgeniy; Staneva, Joanna

    2012-06-01

    The long-term variability of the physical and biochemical structure of oxic and suboxic layers in the Black Sea was studied using a one-dimensional coupled hydrophysical and biogeochemical model. The focus was on the correlation between atmospheric forcing (2 m air temperature and dew point temperature, surface level pressure, surface wind) affected by the North Atlantic Oscillation in and the regional responses. The quality of model performance was demonstrated using observed vertical and temporal distribution of biogeochemical variables. It was shown that during 1960-2000, the long-term variability of simulated winter-mean SST in the Black Sea correlated reasonably well with the variability of 2 m air temperature. Furthermore, the thermal state of the upper ocean impacted largely on the variability of biogeochemical variables, such as oxygen, nitrate and phytoplankton concentration. The tele-connection between North Atlantic Oscillation and Black Sea biogeochemistry was manifested in a different way for the specific time-interval 1960-2000; the corresponding regime shifts were thus associated with the large scale forcing. One such extreme event occurred in 1976 leading to a pronounced shift in the oxygen and hydrogen sulfide state. PMID:22425506

  5. Ocean Winds and Turbulent Air-Sea Fluxes Inferred From Remote Sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bourassa, Mark A.; Gille, Sarah T.; Jackson, Daren L.; Roberts, J. Brent; Wick, Gary A.

    2010-01-01

    Air-sea turbulent fluxes determine the exchange of momentum, heat, freshwater, and gas between the atmosphere and ocean. These exchange processes are critical to a broad range of research questions spanning length scales from meters to thousands of kilometers and time scales from hours to decades. Examples are discussed (section 2). The estimation of surface turbulent fluxes from satellite is challenging and fraught with considerable errors (section 3); however, recent developments in retrievals (section 3) will greatly reduce these errors. Goals for the future observing system are summarized in section 4. Surface fluxes are defined as the rate per unit area at which something (e.g., momentum, energy, moisture, or CO Z ) is transferred across the air/sea interface. Wind- and buoyancy-driven surface fluxes are called surface turbulent fluxes because the mixing and transport are due to turbulence. Examples of nonturbulent processes are radiative fluxes (e.g., solar radiation) and precipitation (Schmitt et al., 2010). Turbulent fluxes are strongly dependent on wind speed; therefore, observations of wind speed are critical for the calculation of all turbulent surface fluxes. Wind stress, the vertical transport of horizontal momentum, also depends on wind direction. Stress is very important for many ocean processes, including upper ocean currents (Dohan and Maximenko, 2010) and deep ocean currents (Lee et al., 2010). On short time scales, this horizontal transport is usually small compared to surface fluxes. For long-term processes, transport can be very important but again is usually small compared to surface fluxes.

  6. Kinematics and Fault Interaction of the Marmara Segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone from Fault-Plane Solutions Based on a Refined High Precision Hypocenter Catalogue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wollin, C.; Bohnhoff, M.; Küpperkoch, L.

    2015-12-01

    The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is separating the Eurasian and Anatolian plates representing a right-lateral transform plate boundary accommodating 20-30 mm annual slip. During the last seismic cycle the NAFZ has produced a series of large earthquakes that started in 1939 in Eastern Anatolia and has propagated westward towards the Istanbul-Marmara region. Here an up to 150 km long segment below the Sea of Marmara remains the only NAFZ segment that was not activated since 1766 representing a seismic gap hosting the potential for a magnitude up to 7.5 earthquake.Here we present a hypocenter catalogue for the Marmara section of the NAFZ which is a challenge since the fault is located offshore permitting no long-term on- or near fault stations. Using the Akaike Information Criterion applied on a characteristic function derived from higher order statistics as well as autoregressive forward prediction to automatically pick P- and S-onset times, we consistently analyze extensive waveform data provided by permanent seismic broadband stations of a combined regional seismic network with unprecedented station distribution.The quality of automatically determined travel times is carefully examined by comparing them to manual reference picks which were determined with a scheme emphasizing highest possible consistency and precision. The high accuracy obtained for the travel times results in an improved hypocenter catalog with fewer but well-located events that allow to image the major fault branches of the NAFZ below the Sea of Marmara.The large network aperture with lacking stations immediately above the seismicity along the fault and insufficient azimuthal station density prevents inversion for focal mechanisms of most single events. Therefore we form spatial seismicity clusters and calculate composite fault plane solutions. Resolving fault-zone geometry and kinematics allow to identify the currently active fault branches and to determine the currently ongoing processes

  7. Descent toward the Icehouse: Eocene sea surface cooling inferred from GDGT distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inglis, Gordon N.; Farnsworth, Alexander; Lunt, Daniel; Foster, Gavin L.; Hollis, Christopher J.; Pagani, Mark; Jardine, Phillip E.; Pearson, Paul N.; Markwick, Paul; Galsworthy, Amanda M. J.; Raynham, Lauren; Taylor, Kyle. W. R.; Pancost, Richard D.

    2015-07-01

    The TEX86 proxy, based on the distribution of marine isoprenoidal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether lipids (GDGTs), is increasingly used to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) during the Eocene epoch (56.0-33.9 Ma). Here we compile published TEX86 records, critically reevaluate them in light of new understandings in TEX86 palaeothermometry, and supplement them with new data in order to evaluate long-term temperature trends in the Eocene. We investigate the effect of archaea other than marine Thaumarchaeota upon TEX86 values using the branched-to-isoprenoid tetraether index (BIT), the abundance of GDGT-0 relative to crenarchaeol (%GDGT-0), and the Methane Index (MI). We also introduce a new ratio, %GDGTRS, which may help identify Red Sea-type GDGT distributions in the geological record. Using the offset between TEX86H and TEX86L (ΔH-L) and the ratio between GDGT-2 and GDGT-3 ([2]/[3]), we evaluate different TEX86 calibrations and present the first integrated SST compilation for the Eocene (55 to 34 Ma). Although the available data are still sparse some geographic trends can now be resolved. In the high latitudes (>55°), there was substantial cooling during the Eocene (~6°C). Our compiled record also indicates tropical cooling of ~2.5°C during the same interval. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations that span the Eocene, our results indicate that only a small percentage (~10%) of the reconstructed temperature change can be ascribed to ocean gateway reorganization or paleogeographic change. Collectively, this indicates that atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) was the likely driver of surface water cooling during the descent toward the icehouse.

  8. Regional mapping of ultra-low velocity zones beneath the Coral Sea using Bayesian inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pachhai, S.; Tkalcic, H.; Dettmer, J.; Rawlinson, N.

    2015-12-01

    Forward waveform modeling of seismic wave conversions at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) points to a strong decrease in P- and S-wave velocity, and an increase in density in a thin zone above the CMB known as the ultra-low velocity zone (ULVZ). However, physical interpretation of ULVZs is challenging due to non-uniqueness of model parameters and lack of rigorous uncertainty estimates. Here, we present results from Bayesian waveform inversions of ScP waves (shear waves converted to, and reflected as compressional waves at the CMB) that sample a wide region beneath the Coral Sea off northeast Australia. The waveforms are obtained from short-period transportable arrays in southeast Australia and the Warramunga array in Northern Territory. The inversion does not require explicit noise and ULVZ parameterization (i.e. number of ULVZ layers and noise parameters treated as unknowns). Model uncertainties are quantified and distinguished from parameter variability as a function of depth and at various locations. The study reveals complex ULVZs, some well and some weakly constrained, with multiple layers as likely solutions. A common feature in all well-constrained results is that the S-wave velocity decreases as a function of depth with narrow uncertainties while P-wave velocity and density have wider uncertainties. Furthermore, ULVZ height varies as a function of location, at the CMB which implies lateral variability of these structures. S and P velocities are decreased by up to 50% and 30%, respectively, whereas density increases up to 30% with respect to the 1-D reference model. These strong perturbations indicate the presence of melt-rich iron material in the lowermost mantle beneath the Coral Sea. In contrast, weakly constrained ULVZs can be a result of: (a) an insufficient number of waveforms to reduce the incoherent noise and/or (b) incoherent pre-/post-cursors due to the 3D shape of ULVZs which cannot be accounted for by a 1-D forward model.

  9. Eolian depositional phases during the past 50 ka and inferred climate variability for the Pampean Sand Sea, western Pampas, Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tripaldi, Alfonsina; Forman, Steven L.

    2016-05-01

    The Pampean Sand Sea, which occurs from the Argentinian Pampas to the eastern Andean piedmont, hosts presently stabilized dune fields spanning the late Quaternary. This study integrates previous results and presents new geomorphic, stratigraphic, sedimentological, and chronologic data for nineteen >2 m-thick eolian successions for the San Luis paleo-dune field, western Pampas, to better constrain the depositional history. Six eolian depositional phases are identified spanning the past 50 ka, interposed with paleosols and/or bounded by erosive surfaces. Age control was from 61 OSL ages of small aliquots of quartz grains from eolian stratigraphic units. The inferred timing of eolian phases are at ca. 70 ± 10 yr, 190 ± 20 yr, 12 to 1 ka, 22 to 17 ka, 29 to 24 ka, and 40 to 32 ka. A maximum span for periods of pedogenesis at ca. 12 to 17 ka, 22 to 24 ka, and 29 to 32 ka was provided by bounding OSL ages, which broadly overlap with high stands of pluvial lakes and glacier advances in the central Andes. We infer that the added precipitation may reflect expansion of the Southern Hemisphere monsoon, associated with Northern Hemisphere Heinrich events, leading to episodes of significantly wetter conditions (>350 mm MAP) to at least 35° S. Most of the Holocene (12 ka to 0.8 ka) was characterized by sand sheet deposit under drier than present conditions (100-450 mm MAP), associated with Monte-type vegetation (shrub steppe). The latest two eolian depositional phases, occurred at ca. 190 and 70 yr ago, during the historic period with European settlement and are related to anthropogenic landscape disturbance, though the youngest phase was concomitant with 1930s drought. Wet conditions dominated since ca. AD 1970 with new lakes and rivers forming across this eolian terrain; an incongruous environmental response in reference to drier conditions for most of the Holocene.

  10. Resolving the Western Black Sea Fault Using Microtremor Measurements? -Preliminary Results-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karabulut, Savas; Caglak, Faruk; Tun, Muammer; Cengiz Cinku, Mualla; Ustaomer, Timur; Ozel, Oguz; Parolai, Stefano; Tezel, Okan; Özçep, Ferhat

    2014-05-01

    Two terrain-bounding major fault zones occur in the Marmara Sea and the northern onshore areas. The first of these is the dextral, E-W trending, North Anatolian Fault Zone which cuts through the deep basins within the Marmara Sea and is known to be one of the most seismically active fault zones on the Earth. The second is the inferred West Black Sea Fault Zone (WBFZ), a NNW-SSE trending, dextral boundary fault which separates the Istranca Massif to the west and the Istanbul Terrane to the east. The WBFZ is thought to have accommodated the opening of the east Black Sea basin (Okay et al., 1994). This fault zone and the two adjacent continental blocks are covered by Middle to Upper Eocene sediments and therefore the WBFZ is considered to be an inactive fault. Nevertheless, it forms a major crustal zone of weakness in the vicinity of Istanbul. Scientists and researchers are confident that there will be in the comparatively near future a major earthquake in the Marmara Sea in the vicinity of Istanbul. Therefore, a major concern is to estimate possible damages to the heavily populated living areas due to such an event. Many studies have been conducted, accordingly, focusing on the offshore (Marmara Sea) and onshore areas (i.e., the City of Istanbul). We have initiated a new project with the aim of constraining the West Black Sea Fault and its local site effects by using geophysical methods. This fault is especially important for the determination of the possible damage area, whereas evidence of some basins which cut through this fault is considered to be potential risk of a site effect problem during a possible earthquake. Within the framework of our project, a series of geophysical methods, such as microtremor single station measurements, the Spatial Autocorrelation Method (SPAC), gravity, Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES), Multi-channel analysis of Surface Wave Data (MASW), and Magnetotellurics (MT) are planned in the area between the Büyükçekmece and K

  11. Sea ice motions in the Central Arctic pack ice as inferred from AVHRR imagery

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Emery, William; Maslanik, James; Fowler, Charles

    1995-01-01

    Synoptic observations of ice motion in the Arctic Basin are currently limited to those acquired by drifting buoys and, more recently, radar data from ERS-1. Buoys are not uniformly distributed throughout the Arctic, and SAR coverage is currently limited regionally and temporally due to the data volume, swath width, processing requirements, and power needs of the SAR. Additional ice-motion observations that can map ice responses simultaneously over large portions of the Arctic on daily to weekly time intervals are thus needed to augment the SAR and buoys data and to provide an intermediate-scale measure of ice drift suitable for climatological analyses and ice modeling. Principal objectives of this project were to: (1) demonstrate whether sufficient ice features and ice motion existed within the consolidated ice pack to permit motion tracking using AVHRR imagery; (2) determine the limits imposed on AVHRR mapping by cloud cover; and (3) test the applicability of AVHRR-derived motions in studies of ice-atmosphere interactions. Each of these main objectives was addressed. We conclude that AVHRR data, particularly when blended with other available observations, provide a valuable data set for studying sea ice processes. In a follow-on project, we are now extending this work to cover larger areas and to address science questions in more detail.

  12. Boundary-layer mantle flow under the Dead Sea transform fault inferred from seismic anisotropy.

    PubMed

    Rümpker, Georg; Ryberg, Trond; Bock, Günter

    2003-10-01

    Lithospheric-scale transform faults play an important role in the dynamics of global plate motion. Near-surface deformation fields for such faults are relatively well documented by satellite geodesy, strain measurements and earthquake source studies, and deeper crustal structure has been imaged by seismic profiling. Relatively little is known, however, about deformation taking place in the subcrustal lithosphere--that is, the width and depth of the region associated with the deformation, the transition between deformed and undeformed lithosphere and the interaction between lithospheric and asthenospheric mantle flow at the plate boundary. Here we present evidence for a narrow, approximately 20-km-wide, subcrustal anisotropic zone of fault-parallel mineral alignment beneath the Dead Sea transform, obtained from an inversion of shear-wave splitting observations along a dense receiver profile. The geometry of this zone and the contrast between distinct anisotropic domains suggest subhorizontal mantle flow within a vertical boundary layer that extends through the entire lithosphere and accommodates the transform motion between the African and Arabian plates within this relatively narrow zone.

  13. High-Level Clouds and Relation to Sea Surface Temperature as Inferred from Japan's GMS Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Ming-Dah; Lindzen, Richard S.; Lee, Kyu-Tae; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    High-level clouds have a significant impact on the radiation energy budgets and, hence, the climate of the Earth. Convective cloud systems, which are controlled by large-scale thermal and dynamical conditions, propagate rapidly within days. At this time scale, changes of sea surface temperature (SST) are small. Radiances measured by Japan's Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are used to study the relation between high-level clouds and SST in the tropical western and central Pacific (30 S-30 N; 130 E-170 W), where the ocean is warm and deep convection is intensive. Twenty months (January 1998 - August, 1999) of GMS data are used, which cover the second half of the strong 1997-1998 El Nino. Brightness temperature at the 11-micron channel is used to identify high-level clouds. The core of convection is identified based on the difference in the brightness temperatures of the 11- and 12-micron channels. Because of the rapid movement of clouds, there is little correlation between clouds six hours apart. When most of deep convection moves to regions of high SST, the domain averaged high-level cloud amount decreases. A +2C change of SST in cloudy regions results in a relative change of -30% in high-level cloud amount. This large change in cloud amount is due to clouds moving from cool regions to warm regions but not the change in SST itself. A reduction in high-level cloud amount in the equatorial region implies an expanded dry upper troposphere in the off-equatorial region, and the greenhouse warming of high clouds and water vapor is reduced through enhanced longwave cooling to space. The results are important for understanding the physical processes relating SST, convection, and water vapor in the tropics. They are also important for validating climate simulations using global general circulation models.

  14. Investigating P- and S-wave velocity structure beneath the Marmara region (Turkey) and the surrounding area from local earthquake tomography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polat, Gulten; Özel, Nurcan Meral; Koulakov, Ivan

    2016-07-01

    We investigated the crustal structure beneath the Marmara region and the surrounding area in the western part of the North Anatolian fault zone. These areas have high seismicity and are of critical significance to earthquake hazards. The study was based on travel-time tomography using local moderate and micro-earthquakes occurring in the study area recorded by the Multi-Disciplinary Earthquake Research in High Risk Regions of Turkey project and Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. We selected 2131 earthquakes and a total of 92,858 arrival times, consisting of 50,044 P-wave and 42,814 S-wave arrival times. We present detailed crustal structure down to 50 km depth beneath the Marmara region for P- and S-wave velocities using the LOTOS code based on iterative inversion. We used the distributions of the resulting seismic parameters ( Vp, Vs) to pick out significant geodynamical features. The high-velocity anomalies correlate well with fracturing segments of the North Anatolian fault. High seismicity is mostly concentrated in these segments. In particular, low velocities were observed beneath the central Marmara Sea at 5 km depth.

  15. Stress-induced crustal anisotropy in Marmara region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    polat, gulten; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2013-04-01

    In this study we have used the aspect ratio, cross-correlation and systematic analysis of crustal anisotropy methods to analyze shear wave splitting from local earthquakes recorded by 33 TURDEP (Multi-Disciplinary Earthquake Research in High Risk Regions of Turkey) and 35 KOERI (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) stations in the Marmara region between 2005 and 2011. The main aim of this analysis is to determine shear wave splitting parameters. The observed fast directions of crustal anisotropy generally are not uniform for the whole region. This reflects the direction of maximum horizontal compression (Vsh), suggesting that two major mechanisms of anisotropy in the crust under study area is regional stress. Splitting delay times range from 0.1 to 0.6 s. Variations in fast directions may be interpreted as a result of intensely sheared zones of deformation imposed by strike-slip motion of the northern branches of the North Anatolian Fault. This observation also explain variations in stress changes excited by moderate earthquakes. In addition, we observed clear temporal variations in fast directions or time delays relating to changes in stress before and after the 2006 Manyas earthquake (Mb=5.3). In addition to shear wave splitting analysis, we have used the ANITA code to investigate 3-D anisotropic P and isotropic S velocity distribution due to P and S travel times from local earthquakes. To measure an orthorhombic anisotropy with one predefined direction oriented vertically, four parameters for each parameterization cell are determined. Three of the parameters describe slowness variations along three horizontal orientations with azimuths of 0, 60, and 120, and one is a perturbation along the vertical axis. Also, simultaneous tomographic inversion for the Vp and Vs anomalies and the Vp/Vs ratio and source locations are done using the LOTOS code. Our results from this study show that the crustal velocity and the uppermost mantle structure beneath

  16. Genome-Wide SNP Discovery, Genotyping and Their Preliminary Applications for Population Genetic Inference in Spotted Sea Bass (Lateolabrax maculatus)

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Juan; Xue, Dong-Xiu; Zhang, Bai-Dong; Li, Yu-Long; Liu, Bing-Jian; Liu, Jin-Xian

    2016-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing and the collection of genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) allow identifying fine-scale population genetic structure and genomic regions under selection. The spotted sea bass (Lateolabrax maculatus) is a non-model species of ecological and commercial importance and widely distributed in northwestern Pacific. A total of 22 648 SNPs was discovered across the genome of L. maculatus by paired-end sequencing of restriction-site associated DNA (RAD-PE) for 30 individuals from two populations. The nucleotide diversity (π) for each population was 0.0028±0.0001 in Dandong and 0.0018±0.0001 in Beihai, respectively. Shallow but significant genetic differentiation was detected between the two populations analyzed by using both the whole data set (FST = 0.0550, P < 0.001) and the putatively neutral SNPs (FST = 0.0347, P < 0.001). However, the two populations were highly differentiated based on the putatively adaptive SNPs (FST = 0.6929, P < 0.001). Moreover, a total of 356 SNPs representing 298 unique loci were detected as outliers putatively under divergent selection by FST-based outlier tests as implemented in BAYESCAN and LOSITAN. Functional annotation of the contigs containing putatively adaptive SNPs yielded hits for 22 of 55 (40%) significant BLASTX matches. Candidate genes for local selection constituted a wide array of functions, including binding, catalytic and metabolic activities, etc. The analyses with the SNPs developed in the present study highlighted the importance of genome-wide genetic variation for inference of population structure and local adaptation in L. maculatus. PMID:27336696

  17. Genome-Wide SNP Discovery, Genotyping and Their Preliminary Applications for Population Genetic Inference in Spotted Sea Bass (Lateolabrax maculatus).

    PubMed

    Wang, Juan; Xue, Dong-Xiu; Zhang, Bai-Dong; Li, Yu-Long; Liu, Bing-Jian; Liu, Jin-Xian

    2016-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing and the collection of genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) allow identifying fine-scale population genetic structure and genomic regions under selection. The spotted sea bass (Lateolabrax maculatus) is a non-model species of ecological and commercial importance and widely distributed in northwestern Pacific. A total of 22 648 SNPs was discovered across the genome of L. maculatus by paired-end sequencing of restriction-site associated DNA (RAD-PE) for 30 individuals from two populations. The nucleotide diversity (π) for each population was 0.0028±0.0001 in Dandong and 0.0018±0.0001 in Beihai, respectively. Shallow but significant genetic differentiation was detected between the two populations analyzed by using both the whole data set (FST = 0.0550, P < 0.001) and the putatively neutral SNPs (FST = 0.0347, P < 0.001). However, the two populations were highly differentiated based on the putatively adaptive SNPs (FST = 0.6929, P < 0.001). Moreover, a total of 356 SNPs representing 298 unique loci were detected as outliers putatively under divergent selection by FST-based outlier tests as implemented in BAYESCAN and LOSITAN. Functional annotation of the contigs containing putatively adaptive SNPs yielded hits for 22 of 55 (40%) significant BLASTX matches. Candidate genes for local selection constituted a wide array of functions, including binding, catalytic and metabolic activities, etc. The analyses with the SNPs developed in the present study highlighted the importance of genome-wide genetic variation for inference of population structure and local adaptation in L. maculatus. PMID:27336696

  18. Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in The Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey Part2 Yoshiyuki KANEDA Nagoya University Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) Haluk OZENER Boğaziçi University, Earthquake Researches Institute (KOERI) and Members of SATREPS Japan-Turkey project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaneda, Y.; Ozener, H.

    2015-12-01

    The 1999 Izumit Earthquake as the destructive earthquake occurred near the Marmara Sea. The Marmara Sea should be focused on because of a seismic gap in the North Anatolian fault. Istanbul is located around the Marmara Sea, so, if next earthquake will occur near Istanbul, fatal damages will be generated. The Japan and Turkey can share our own experiences during past damaging earthquakes and we can prepare for future large earthquakes in cooperation with each other. In earthquakes in Tokyo area and Istanbul area as the destructive earthquakes near high population cities, there are common disaster researches and measures. For disaster mitigation, we are progressing multidisciplinary researches. Our goals of this SATREPS project are as follows, To develop disaster mitigation policy and strategies based on multidisciplinary research activities. To provide decision makers with newly found knowledge for its implementation to the current regulations. To organize disaster education programs in order to increase disaster awareness in Turkey. To contribute the evaluation of active fault studies in Japan. This project is composed of four research groups. The first group is Marmara Earthquake Source region observationally research group. This group has 4 sub-themes such as Seismicity, Geodesy, Electromagnetics and Trench analyses. The second group focuses on scenario researches of earthquake occurrence along the North Anatolia fault and precise tsunami simulation in the Marmara region. Aims of the third group are improvements and constructions of seismic characterizations and damage predictions based on observation researches and precise simulations. The fourth group is promoting disaster educations using research result visuals. In this SATREPS project, we will integrate these research results for disaster mitigation in Marmara region and .disaster education in Turkey. We will have a presentation of the updated results of this SATREPS project.

  19. A Compilation of the Historical Earthquakes Database for Marmara Region from 2000 B.C. and 1900 A.D. in frame of Marsite and Mardim Projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basarir Basturk, Nilay; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2016-04-01

    This study aimed at contributing to creation of a scenario database for tsunamigenic earthquakes occurred in Marmara Region through the investigation of the historical earthquakes under the frame of Marsite and also Mardim Projects for the work package 5 (WP5). Furthermore, this work provides an evaluation of earthquake history in Marmara Region which is important for seismic risk assesment in İstanbul and preparing an active fault map of the Sea of Marmara,which is one of the goals of the work package 7 (WP7) of Marmara Supersite Project. For this purpose, we have created a digital database containing 576 earthquakes with some parameters such as location and intensity, also including macroseismic explanations for Turkey between the dates of 2000 B.C. and 1900 A.D. by compiling over 20 available sources such as Ambraseys(2009), Ambraseys and Finkel(1995), Ergin et al. (1967 and 1971), Soysal et al. (1981), Guidoboni et al. (1994), Papazachos et al. (1997), Shebalin & Tatevossian (1997), Ambraseys & Jackson (1998), Kondorskaya & Ulomov (1999), Ambraseys & Jackson (2000), Guidoboni & Comastri(2005), Stucchi et al(2012), Papazachos&P.,(2003). Among these sources, the basic reference that we used for many earthquakes is the Soysal et al. (1981), including earthquake parameters such as macroseismic epicenter and intensity. Another important catalogue for the assessment of historical events is the Ambraseys (2009) which is a comprehensive review and contains macroseismic explanations of the earthquakes in Turkey from 2000 B.C. to 1900 A.D. Evaulation of every possible sources for the old earthquakes have enabled us to cross check differences among them , find dublicate events and debate the earthquakes in terms of their reliability. In the scope of this study, the historical earthquakes were classified to date, location, intensity, macroseismic explanations using available information. In addition, the coordinate and intensity were assigned to 343 and 114 events

  20. Modelling of glacial isostatic adjustment in the Barents Sea region: Earth rheology inferred from various ice load scenarios for the last glacial cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Auriac, Amandine; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; Bentley, Michael J.; Patton, Henry; Hubbard, Alun; Lloyd, Jerry M.

    2015-04-01

    The Barents Sea, bordered by Norway to the south, Svalbard to the north and Novaya Zemlya to the east, was covered by ice during the last glacial cycle. The extent and thickness of the marine-based ice sheet as well as timing of glaciation / deglaciation are, however, difficult to constrain, partly due to the few terrestrial areas available. There are various models for the ice load history in this region, but large discrepancies remain between them depending on the dataset used as constraint (e.g. sea-level data, temperature record or geomorphology data). Our aim here is to compare and find the best ice load scenario for this region over the last glacial cycle and solve for the Earth structure in the area. To achieve this, we model the present-day crustal deformation and sea-level variations during the last deglaciation by solving the sea-level equation. We use a wide range of Earth models, where we vary the lithosphere thickness and the upper and lower mantle viscosities, as well as four ice load scenarios. The first three ice load scenarios come from published studies, and include the ICE-5G model as well as models from M. Siegert and J.-O. Näslund, while the last one is currently being developed at the University of Tromsø, Norway. We compare the modelled sea-level predictions to relative sea-level curves at key locations around the Barents Sea using chi square, which enables us to infer the best Earth structure and ice history. We also compare the predicted surface deformation from our best model with GPS observations from stations located around the Barents Sea. The GPS provides a constraint on the present-day evolution of deformation in the area and is complementary to the relative sea-level data, which constrain the long-term deformation. First results show that the published ice load scenarios are not accurate enough to reproduce the sea level curves around the Barents Sea, regardless of the Earth model tried. However, the last model, currently being

  1. The multi-parameter borehole system and high resolution seismic studies in the western part of the main Marmara Fault in the frame of MARSITE Project.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozel, Oguz; Guralp, Cansun; Tunc, Suleyman; Yalcinkaya, Esref

    2016-04-01

    The main objective of this study is to install a multi-parameter borehole system and surface array as close to the main Marmara Fault (MMF) in the western Marmara Sea as possible, and measure continuously the evolution of the state of the fault zone surrounding the MMF and to detect any anomaly or change, which may occur before earthquakes by making use of the data from the arrays already running in the eastern part of the Marmara Sea. The multi-parameter borehole system is composed of very wide dynamic range and stable borehole (VBB) broad band seismic sensor, and incorporate strain meter, tilt meter, and temperature and local hydrostatic pressure measuring devices. The borehole seismic station uses the latest update technologies and design ideas to record "Earth tides" signals to the smallest magnitude -3 events. Additionally, a surface microearthquake observation array, consisting of 8-10 seismometers around the borehole is established to obtain continuous high resolution locations of micro-seismicity and to better understand the existing seismically active structures and their roles in local tectonic settings.Bringing face to face the seismograms of microearthquakes recorded by borehole and surface instruments portrays quite different contents. The shorter recording duration and nearly flat frequency spectrum up to the Nyquist frequencies of borehole records are faced with longer recording duration and rapid decay of spectral amplitudes at higher frequencies of a surface seismogram. The main causative of the observed differences are near surface geology effects that mask most of the source related information the seismograms include, and that give rise to scattering, generating longer duration seismograms. In view of these circumstances, studies on microearthquakes employing surface seismograms may bring on misleading results. Particularly, the works on earthquake physics and nucleation process of earthquakes requires elaborate analysis of tiny events. It is

  2. Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in The Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey. (SATREPS Project: Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development by JICA-JST)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaneda, Y.; Erdik, M. O.; Takahashi, N.; Meral Ozel, N.; Hori, T.; Hori, M.; Kumamoto, K.; Kalafat, D.; Pinar, A.; Ozel, A. O.; Yalciner, A. C.; Nurlu, M.; Tanircan, G.; Citak, S.; Ariyoshi, K.; Necmioglu, O.

    2014-12-01

    Since 1900, around 90,000 people have lost their lives in 76 earthquakes occurred in Turkey, with a total affected population of ~7 million and direct estimated losses of ~25 billion USD. About half the lives lost were due to two earthquakes associated with the North Anatolian Fault in 1939 and 1999. During this time, seven large westward-migrating earthquakes created a 900-km-long continuous surface rupture along the fault zone from Erzincan to the Marmara Sea, stopping just short of Istanbul. Based on a time-dependent model that includes coseismic and postseismic effects of the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) = 7.4, Parsons concluded that the probability of an earthquake with Mw >7 in the Sea of Marmara near Istanbul is 35% to 70% in the next 30 years. This high probability is shared by Tokyo and San Francisco; however, the earthquake fragility of the pre-2000 building stock in Turkey is much higher than that of California or Japan. (Erdik, 2013). All of the arguments described above provide a sound basis for a Japanese-Turkish partnership enabling each partner to share experiences gained from past destructive earthquakes and prepare for expected large earthquakes. The SATREPS project aims to address this need, also focusing on the tsunami hazard. The project's main objectives are i) to develop disaster mitigation policies and strategies based on multidisciplinary research activities; ii) to provide decision makers with newly found knowledge for its implementation to the current regulations; iii) to organize disaster education programs in order to increase disaster awareness in Turkey; iv) to contribute the evaluation of active fault studies in Japan. To achieve successfully these objectives, 4 research groups have been set specializing on observations, simulations, civil engineering and disaster education and the results will be integrated for disaster mitigation in the Marmara region and disaster education in Turkey.

  3. Rates and causes of recent global sea-level rise inferred from long tide gauge data records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakada, Masao; Inoue, Hiroshi

    2005-05-01

    Tide gauge data at seven sites of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), with information for relative sea-level during the past 140-200 yr, were analyzed to examine the rates and causes of the global sea-level rise (GSLR) during the twentieth century. By subtracting linear trends for relative sea-level rise during the past 100 yr from the observed data, we get the apparent GSLRs of ˜1 mm yr -1 for five sites around the Baltic Sea and Brest. The rate for San Francisco is significantly larger than this, with an optimum value ˜2 mm yr -1. The spatial difference of ˜1 mm yr -1 between these sites is reasonably explained by the recent melting of the Greenland ice sheet with an equivalent sea-level rise of ˜1 mm yr -1. The predicted relative sea-level change for this melting scenario is 0.5 mm yr -1 at sites around the Baltic Sea and Brest, and 1.5 mm yr -1 for San Francisco. The residuals between observations and predictions, ˜0.5 mm yr -1 at all sites, may be contributed by thermal expansion of seawater and/or other melting sources. These results suggest the rate of twentieth-century GSLR to be 1.5 mm yr -1.

  4. A high-resolution diatom-inferred palaeoconductivity and lake level record of the Aral Sea for the last 1600 yr

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Austin, Patrick; Mackay, Anson; Palagushkina, Olga; Leng, Melanie

    2007-05-01

    Formerly the world's fourth largest lake by area, the Aral Sea is presently undergoing extreme desiccation due to large-scale irrigation strategies implemented in the Soviet era. As part of the INTAS-funded CLIMAN project into Holocene climatic variability and the evolution of human settlement in the Aral Sea basin, fossil diatom assemblages contained within a sediment core obtained from the Aral Sea have been applied to a diatom-based inference model of conductivity ( r2 = 0.767, RMSEP = 0.469 log 10 μS cm - 1). This has provided a high-resolution record of conductivity and lake level change over the last ca. 1600 yr. Three severe episodes of lake level regression are indicated at ca. AD 400, AD 1195-1355 and ca. AD 1780 to the present day. The first two regressions may be linked to the natural diversion of the Amu Darya away from the Aral Sea and the failure of cyclones formed in the Mediterranean to penetrate more continental regions. Human activity, however, and in particular the destruction of irrigation facilities are synchronous with these early regressions and contributed to the severity of the observed low stands.

  5. New Directions in Seismic Hazard Assessment Through Focused Earth Observation in the MARmara SuperSITE - Project Achievements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meral OZel, Nurcan; Necmioǧlu, Öcal; Ergintav, Semih; Ozel, Oǧuz; Favali, Paolo; Bigarre, Pascal; Çakır, Ziyadin; Ozeren, Sinan; Geli, Louis; Douglas, John; Aochi, Hideo; Bossu, Remy; Zülfikar, Can; Şeşetyan, Karin; Erdik, Mustafa

    2016-04-01

    The MARsite Project, which started in November 2012,funded by the EC/ FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2 (Grant 308417) identifies the Marmara region as a 'Supersite' within European initiatives to aggregate on-shore, off-shore and space-based observations, comprehensive geophysical monitoring, improved hazard and risk assessments encompassed in an integrated set of activities. MARsite aimed to harmonize geological, geophysical, geodetic and geochemical observations to provide a better view of the post-seismic deformation of the 1999 Izmit earthquake (in addition to the post-seismic signature of previous earthquakes), loading of submarine and inland active fault segments and transient pre-earthquake signals, related to stress loading with different tectonic properties in and around Marmara Sea. This presentation provides an overview of the achievements of MARSite which aimed to coordinate research groups ranging from seismology to gas geochemistry in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed in the Marmara Region based on collection of multidisciplinary data to be shared, interpreted and merged in consistent theoretical and practical models suitable for the implementation of good practices to move the necessary information to the end users in charge of seismic risk management of the region. In addition, processes involved in earthquake generation and the physics of short-term seismic transients, 4D deformations to understand earthquake cycle processes, fluid activity monitoring and seismicity under the sea floor using existing autonomous instrumentation, early warning and development of real-time shake and loss information, real- and quasi-real-time earthquake and tsunami hazard monitoring and earthquake-induced landslide hazard topics are also covered within MARSite. In particular, achievements and progress in the design and building of a multi-parameter borehole system consisting of very wide dynamic range and stable borehole (VBB) broad band seismic sensor, with

  6. Numerical modeling of the seismic response of a large pre-existing landslide in the Marmara region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bourdeau, Céline; Lenti, Luca; Martino, Salvatore

    2015-04-01

    Turkey is one of the geologically most active regions of Europe prone to natural hazards in particular earthquakes and landslides. Detailed seismological studies show that a catastrophic event is now expected in the Marmara region along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). On the shores of the Marmara sea, about 30km East of Istanbul and 15km North from the NAFZ, urbanization is fastly growing despite the presence of pre-existing large landslides. Whether such landslides could be reactivated under seismic shaking is a key question. In the framework of the MARsite European project, we selected one of the most critical landslides namely the Büyükçekmece landslide in order to assess its local seismic response. Based on detailed geophysical and geotechnical field investigations, a high-resolution engineering-geological model of the landslide slope was reconstructed. A numerical modeling was carried out on a longitudinal cross section of this landslide with a 2D finite difference code FLAC in order to assess the local seismic response of the slope and to evaluate the consistency of conditions suitable for the earthquake-induced reactivation of the landslide. The obtained ground-motion amplification pattern along the slope surface is very complex and is strongly influenced by properties changes between the pre-existing landslide mass and the surrounding material. Further comparisons of 2D versus 1D ground-motion amplifications on the one hand and 2D versus topographic site effects on the other hand will shed light on the parameters controlling the spatial variations of ground-motion amplifications along the slope surface.

  7. Transient sensitivities of sea ice export through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago inferred from a coupled ocean/sea-ice adjoint model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heimbach, P.; Losch, M.; Menemenlis, D.; Campin, J.; Hill, C.

    2008-12-01

    The sensitivity of sea-ice export through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), measured in terms of its solid freshwater export through Lancaster Sound, to changes in various elements of the ocean and sea-ice state, and to elements of the atmospheric forcing fields through time and space is assessed by means of a coupled ocean/sea-ice adjoint model. The adjoint model furnishes full spatial sensitivity maps (also known as Lagrange multipliers) of the export metric to a variety of model variables at any chosen point in time, providing the unique capability to quantify major drivers of sea-ice export variability. The underlying model is the MIT ocean general circulation model (MITgcm), which is coupled to a Hibler-type dynamic/thermodynamic sea-ice model. The configuration is based on the Arctic face of the ECCO3 high-resolution cubed-sphere model, but coarsened to 36-km horizontal grid spacing. The adjoint of the coupled system has been derived by means of automatic differentiation using the software tool TAF. Finite perturbation simulations are performed to check the information provided by the adjoint. The sea-ice model's performance in the presence of narrow straits is assessed with different sea-ice lateral boundary conditions. The adjoint sensitivity clearly exposes the role of the model trajectory and the transient nature of the problem. The complex interplay between forcing, dynamics, and boundary condition is demonstrated in the comparison between the different calculations. The study is a step towards fully coupled adjoint-based ocean/sea-ice state estimation at basin to global scales as part of the ECCO efforts.

  8. Adolescents’ posttraumatic stress reactions and behavior problems following Marmara earthquake

    PubMed Central

    Dogan, Aysun

    2011-01-01

    Background Although most children and adolescents exhibit some kindof postdisaster reactions, their symptoms vary depending on the age, gender, parental social support, disaster and postdisaster contextual factors. Objective This study examined adolescents’ postdisaster experiences, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, and behavior problems 13 months after the 1999 Marmara earthquake in Turkey. Design Participants included 695 adolescents aged 12-17 years, who resided in three districts of Izmit at varying distances from the epicenter (e.g., high (HI), medium (MI), and low impact (LI) areas). Measures included demographics, earthquake exposure experiences, ChildPTSD Reaction Index, and Behavior Problems Index. Results Findings revealed that 76% of the adolescents reported moderate to very severe levels of PTSD symptoms (82% HI, 70% MI, and 70% LI) after the devastating earthquake. As expected, the HI group reported more symptoms than did members of MI and LI groups. Overall, 39% of the variance in adolescents’ PTSD symptoms was accounted for by the degree of exposure and gender. Analyses also indicated an increase in the frequency of adolescents’ behavior problems following the earthquake. Conclusions The findings of this study have clinical implications for designing and implementing effective, developmentally appropriate, and culturally sensitive intervention programs for the victims of major disasters. PMID:22893811

  9. Deep structure of the crust beneath the Sea of Okhotsk inferred from 3D seismic density modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piskarev, A. L.; Butsenko, V. V.; Poselov, V. A.; Savin, V. A.

    2012-05-01

    Potential field anomalies of the Sea of Okhotsk region are analyzed for compiling a map of the basement's tectonic structures. A 3D density model of the Earth's crust is constructed using seismogeological and experimental-petrophysical data, which made it possible to obtain a visual image of main structures of the region reflecting the observable geophysical anomalies. The obtained data allow a domain located in the central part of the Sea of Okhotsk beyond the limits of the exclusive economic zone of the Russian Federation to be considered as a natural continuation of the continental shelf since the latter is structurally similar to western Kamchatka. The deep structural boundaries rise beneath the large sedimentary Deryugin and Tinro basins, which is characteristic of petroliferous basins.

  10. Fluxes of carbon and nutrients to the Iceland Sea surface waters and inferred primary productivity and stoichiometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeansson, Emil; Bellerby, Richard; Frigstad, Helene; Ólafsdóttir, Sólveig R.; Olafsson, Jón; Skjelvan, Ingunn

    2014-05-01

    Fluxes of carbon and nutrients to the upper 100 m of the Iceland Sea are evaluated. The study utilises hydro-chemical data from the quarterly sampled Iceland Sea time-series station (68.00 ° N, 12.67 ° W), for the years between 1993 and 2006. By comparing data of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and nutrients in the surface layer (upper 100 m), and a sub-surface layer (100-200 m), we calculate monthly deficits in the surface, and use this to deduce the fluxes into and out of the surface layer that affect the deficit: vertical mixing, horizontal advection, air-sea exchange, and biological activity. The deficits show a clear seasonality with a minimum in winter, when the mixed layer is at the deepest, and a maximum in September, when biological uptake has removed much of the nutrients. The annual vertical fluxes of DIC and nitrate amounts to 2.3 and 0.41 mol m-2 yr-1, respectively, the annual air-sea uptake of atmospheric CO2 is 4.4 mol m-2 yr-1, and the net annual flux due to biological activity is calculated to 5.5 mol C m-2 yr-1, and 0.37 mol N m-2 yr-1. We also deduce seasonal NCP by summing up the months with a positive drawdown of DIC, and similar for new production by summing up the months with positive nitrate drawdown. We quantify these to 5.6 mol C m-2 yr-1, and 0.51 mol N m-2 yr-1, which gives a ratio markedly higher than Redfield. Results for phosphate and silicate are also shown and discussed, as are the stoichiometry of the all deduced fluxes.

  11. Using an independent geochronology based on palaeomagnetic secular variation (PSV) and atmospheric Pb deposition to date Baltic Sea sediments and infer 14C reservoir age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lougheed, Bryan C.; Snowball, Ian; Moros, Matthias; Kabel, Karoline; Muscheler, Raimund; Virtasalo, Joonas J.; Wacker, Lukas

    2012-05-01

    these sediments. An inferred marine reservoir age offset (ΔR) is calculated by comparing the foraminifera 14C determinations to a PSV & Pb age model. This ΔR is found to trend towards younger values upwards in the core, possibly due to a gradual change in hydrographic conditions brought about by a reduction in marine water exchange from the open sea due to continued isostatic rebound.

  12. Inferred calcification rate of a Mediterranean azooxanthellate coral is uncoupled with sea surface temperature along an 8° latitudinal gradient

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Correlations between sea surface temperature (SST) and growth parameters of the solitary azooxanthellate Dendrophylliid Leptopsammia pruvoti were assessed along an 8° latitudinal gradient on western Italian coasts (Mediterranean Sea), to check for possible negative effects of increasing temperature as the ones reported for a closely related, sympatric but zooxanthellate species. Results Calcification rate was correlated with skeletal density but not with linear extension rate, indicating that calcium carbonate deposition was preferentially allocated to keep a constant skeletal density. Unlike most studies on both temperate and tropical zooxanthellate corals, where calcification rate is strongly related to environmental parameters such as SST, in the present study calcification rate was not correlated with SST. Conclusions The lower sensitivity of L. pruvoti to SST with respect to other sympatric zooxanthellate corals, such as Balanophyllia europaea, may rely on the absence of a temperature induced inhibition of photosynthesis, and thus the absence of an inhibition of the calcification process. This study is the first field investigation of the relationship between SST and the three growth parameters of an azooxanthellate coral. Increasing research effort on determining the effects of temperature on biological traits of the poorly studied azooxanthellate scleractinians may help to predict the possible species assemblage shifts that are likely to occur in the immediate future as a consequence of global climatic change. PMID:23163981

  13. A new species of Euscorpius Thorell, 1876 (Scorpiones, Euscorpiidae) from Marmara Region of Turkey

    PubMed Central

    Yağmur, Ersen Aydın; Tropea, Gioele

    2013-01-01

    Abstract A new species of the genus Euscorpius Thorell, 1876 is described based on specimens collected from Bursa Province, in Marmara Region of Turkey. It is characterized by a mesotrichous trichobothrial pattern (Pv= 8, et= 6, em=4, eb= 4), medium size and light coloration. Euscorpius (Euscorpius) rahsenae sp. n. is the second species of the subgenus Euscorpius recognizedin Turkey. PMID:23794835

  14. A Synthesis of Late Miocene Through Pliocene Evolution of Glaciation as Inferred From Deep Sea Geochemical Records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Billups, K.

    2008-12-01

    During the Miocene through Pliocene climate evolved from an early Miocene climatic optimum (~16 Ma) followed by major expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet during the middle Miocene (~15 Ma), to an early Pliocene interval of relative global warmth (5 to 3.5 Ma) followed by the onset of wide spread Northern Hemisphere Glaciation during the late Pliocene (~3 Ma). Here I review the evolution of Miocene/Pliocene glaciation as recorded in the geochemistry of deep sea sediments. Much of what we know about past climate change comes from the oxygen isotopic composition of benthic foraminifera. Although this proxy outlines large scale changes in the degree of polar glaciation, the absolute magnitude and the relationship between ice extent and ocean temperature cannot be uniquely determined. The recent development of foraminiferal Mg/Ca ratios as a proxy for paleotemperatures provides an opportunity to improve our understanding of Miocene/Pliocene climate change on both tectonic and orbital time scales. For example, paired δ18O and Mg/Ca deep water records show that middle Miocene expansion of ice predates cooling of Southern Ocean surface waters providing evidence for the importance of heat and moisture transport in Antarctic ice growth (Shevenell and Kennett, 2007). Relatively few deep sea studies have focused on late Miocene climate, and foraminiferal δ18O records do not support major oceanographic and climatic changes. Although, the late Miocene may have been a time of global cooling, especially in the circum- Antarctic region, with the establishment of a grounded West Antarctic ice sheet. The early Pliocene, in contrast, has been the focus of much research because of the relevance to understanding intervals of sustained global climatic warmth with near modern-day tectonic configuration, warm upwelling regions, and elevated CO2 levels with respect to the pre-industrial atmosphere. The deep sea δ18O record, however, suggests that Antarctic ice sheet size remained

  15. The upper layer circulation of the Black Sea - Its variability as inferred from hydrographic and satellite observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oguz, Temel; La Violette, Paul E.; Unluata, Umit

    1992-01-01

    Quasi-synoptic hydrographic data and satellite imagery are used to describe the circulation and the structural variability of the Black Sea with particular emphasis on the Turkish coast. The circulation is indicated to involve a variable cyclonic circulation with no apparent central locus and a well-defined cyclonic 'Rim Current' containing meanders and interacting eddy fields confined to the shelf slope. Interspersed between the coastal eddies are filaments and intense jets, often with dipole eddies at their termina. The extension of these features across the shelf-slope into the central basin offshore waters implies important dynamical processes related to the shell-deep basin exchanges. These features are often steered by the topography and evolve continuously through the mixed baroclinic-barotropic instability of the Rim Current.

  16. Genetic structure of Octopus vulgaris (Cephalopoda, Octopodidae) in the central Mediterranean Sea inferred from the mitochondrial COIII gene.

    PubMed

    Fadhlaoui-Zid, Karima; Knittweis, Leyla; Aurelle, Didier; Nafkha, Chaala; Ezzeddine, Soufia; Fiorentino, Fabio; Ghmati, Hisham; Ceriola, Luca; Jarboui, Othman; Maltagliati, Ferruccio

    2012-01-01

    The polymorphism of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase III was studied in the Mediterranean octopus, Octopus vulgaris Cuvier, 1797. A total of 202 specimens from seven sampling sites were analysed with the aim of elucidating patterns of genetic structure in the central Mediterranean Sea and to give an insight into the phylogeny of the Octopus genus. Phylogenetic analyses showed that individuals from the central Mediterranean belong to the O. vulgaris species whose limits should nevertheless be clarified. Concerning genetic structure, two high-frequency haplotypes were present in all locations. The overall genetic divergence (Φ(ST)=0.05, P<0.05) indicated a significant genetic structuring in the study area and an AMOVA highlighted a significant break between western and eastern Mediterranean basins (Φ(CT)=0.094, P<0.05). Possible explanations for the observed patterns of genetic structuring are discussed with reference to their relevance for fisheries management.

  17. Patterns and inferred processes associated with sea turtle strandings in Paraíba State, Northeast Brazil.

    PubMed

    Poli, C; Lopez, L C S; Mesquita, D O; Saska, C; Mascarenhas, R

    2014-05-01

    This study analysed sea turtle strandings on the coast of Paraíba State, Northeastern Brazil, from August 2009 to July 2010. A total of 124 strandings were recorded in this period: green turtle Chelonia mydas (n = 106), hawksbill Eretmochelys imbricata (n = 15), olive ridley Lepidochelys olivacea (n = 2) and loggerhead Caretta caretta (n = 1). Of all turtles for which the Curved Carapace Length (CCL) was measured (n = 122), only 12 individuals (9.7%) were adults. Twenty individuals had synthetic anthropogenic debris in the gastrointestinal tract. Other traces of human interactions were observed in 43 individuals, such as injuries caused by entanglement in fishing lines or nets, collisions with vessels, direct contact with oil spills and lesions caused by sharp or spiked objects. Moreover, in 28.5% of the stranded turtles, the presence of external tumors was noticed, suggestive of fibropapillomatosis and in 9.7%, shark bite marks were observed. Of the 107 individuals that were sexed, 76 were females and 31 were males. Most turtles (72.6%) became stranded during the spring/summer (between October and March). We found evidence of human interactions (injuries) in half of the strandings, but in most cases it was not possible to determine if such interactions were the cause of death. A logistic regression found a significant relationship between CCL, ingestion of debris and lesions caused by sharks or spiked objects. Systematic data collection from stranded sea turtles can provide useful biological information, such as seasonal and spatial patterns in their occurrence and mortality, age structure, sex ratio and diet, as well as possible mortality causes.

  18. Patterns and inferred processes associated with sea turtle strandings in Paraíba State, Northeast Brazil.

    PubMed

    Poli, C; Lopez, L C S; Mesquita, D O; Saska, C; Mascarenhas, R

    2014-05-01

    This study analysed sea turtle strandings on the coast of Paraíba State, Northeastern Brazil, from August 2009 to July 2010. A total of 124 strandings were recorded in this period: green turtle Chelonia mydas (n = 106), hawksbill Eretmochelys imbricata (n = 15), olive ridley Lepidochelys olivacea (n = 2) and loggerhead Caretta caretta (n = 1). Of all turtles for which the Curved Carapace Length (CCL) was measured (n = 122), only 12 individuals (9.7%) were adults. Twenty individuals had synthetic anthropogenic debris in the gastrointestinal tract. Other traces of human interactions were observed in 43 individuals, such as injuries caused by entanglement in fishing lines or nets, collisions with vessels, direct contact with oil spills and lesions caused by sharp or spiked objects. Moreover, in 28.5% of the stranded turtles, the presence of external tumors was noticed, suggestive of fibropapillomatosis and in 9.7%, shark bite marks were observed. Of the 107 individuals that were sexed, 76 were females and 31 were males. Most turtles (72.6%) became stranded during the spring/summer (between October and March). We found evidence of human interactions (injuries) in half of the strandings, but in most cases it was not possible to determine if such interactions were the cause of death. A logistic regression found a significant relationship between CCL, ingestion of debris and lesions caused by sharks or spiked objects. Systematic data collection from stranded sea turtles can provide useful biological information, such as seasonal and spatial patterns in their occurrence and mortality, age structure, sex ratio and diet, as well as possible mortality causes. PMID:25166312

  19. Earthquake Swarm in Armutlu Peninsula, Eastern Marmara Region, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yavuz, Evrim; Çaka, Deniz; Tunç, Berna; Serkan Irmak, T.; Woith, Heiko; Cesca, Simone; Lühr, Birger-Gottfried; Barış, Şerif

    2015-04-01

    The most active fault system of Turkey is North Anatolian Fault Zone and caused two large earthquakes in 1999. These two earthquakes affected the eastern Marmara region destructively. Unbroken part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone crosses north of Armutlu Peninsula on east-west direction. This branch has been also located quite close to Istanbul known as a megacity with its high population, economic and social aspects. A new cluster of microseismic activity occurred in the direct vicinity southeastern of the Yalova Termal area. Activity started on August 2, 2014 with a series of micro events, and then on August 3, 2014 a local magnitude is 4.1 event occurred, more than 1000 in the followed until August 31, 2014. Thus we call this tentatively a swarm-like activity. Therefore, investigation of the micro-earthquake activity of the Armutlu Peninsula has become important to understand the relationship between the occurrence of micro-earthquakes and the tectonic structure of the region. For these reasons, Armutlu Network (ARNET), installed end of 2005 and equipped with currently 27 active seismic stations operating by Kocaeli University Earth and Space Sciences Research Center (ESSRC) and Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), is a very dense network tool able to record even micro-earthquakes in this region. In the 30 days period of August 02 to 31, 2014 Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) announced 120 local earthquakes ranging magnitudes between 0.7 and 4.1, but ARNET provided more than 1000 earthquakes for analyzes at the same time period. In this study, earthquakes of the swarm area and vicinity regions determined by ARNET were investigated. The focal mechanism of the August 03, 2014 22:22:42 (GMT) earthquake with local magnitude (Ml) 4.0 is obtained by the moment tensor solution. According to the solution, it discriminates a normal faulting with dextral component. The obtained focal mechanism solution is

  20. Assessment of ionospheric threat modeling techniques over Marmara Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Onur Karslioglu, Mahmut; Yeganehsahab, Amir; Durmaz, Murat

    2016-04-01

    It is generally known that extreme ionospheric density associated with severe magnetic storm degrades the Global Navigation satellite Systems (GNSS) measurements also at mid - to high latitudes. Strong solar activity can cause large local spatial and temporal gradients in the delays induced on the GNSS signals by the ionosphere. The local nature of gradients can result in significant decorrelation between Ground Based Augmentation System (GBAS) Ground Stations and the GNSS receiver on board the aircraft. For the mitigation of this effect either a special functional architecture is established to monitor the ionosphere on the basis of so called Extended GBAS or ionospheric threat models can be constructed for a certain region. In this work two different techniques have been evaluated for the estimation of ionospheric threat model parameters consisting of width, slope and velocity of the ionospheric wave front by using real ground-based observations from both GPS and GLONASS in the Marmara Region. The data collected between 2012 and 2015 also containing high ionospheric activities are pre-processed to extract ionospheric gradients. Ionospheric delays at each ionospheric piercing point are determined by applying a local ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) modeling and filtering techniques on the basis of raw carrier-phase observations. The ionospheric fronts are searched by looking at high ionospheric gradients which result from ionospheric delay differences between ionospheric piercing points. The first technique of the threat model evaluation is based on the propagation of an ideal plane wave as a wave front, velocity of which is estimated on the basis of a Gauss Markov Model using an ordinary least square estimation procedure. The remaining parameters namely slope and width are calculated afterwards using rate of change gradients and the duration of the wave front in context with the estimated front velocity. In the second technique both the magnitude of the

  1. Investigation of Wind Speed Persistence Over Marmara Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Özgür, Evren; Koçak, Kasım

    2016-04-01

    Persistence is a measure of continuity of a variable over a period of time at any location. This definition implies that wind speed persistence means a positive serial correlation in a time series. In literature, there are numerous methods for measuring wind speed persistence. In this study, wind speed persistence were obtained for 19 stations located in Marmara Region by using two different methods. Daily wind speed data, taken from Turkish State Meteorological Service, were used in the study. The observation period was taken to be 1965-2014 for all stations. The methods used in the study are directional statistical method and wind speed duration curves approach. In directional statistical method, individual dates of winds are defined as directional variables; then, directional mean and variance are calculated. Wind dates are being converted to angular values and these days are being considered as a unit vector which has direction θ. In polar coordinate, the measures of directional mean and variance have been expressed as a vector with direction θmean and magnitude r. The r value can be considered as a measure of persistence. The wind speed duration curve is simply the cumulative distribution function of the wind speed in a certain period of time. In other words, it is the graphical representation of wind speed and percentage of exceedence time for a predefined threshold wind speed value in the same graphic. As a threshold wind speed, lower quartile (q0.25) value of ranked wind speed data were selected. In application, total time period was divided into five subperiods and changes of persistence in wind speeds as far as subperiods were presented. Persistence can be used in different kinds of study areas such as control of forest fires, dispersion of air pollutants, calculation of wind energy potential, ventilation of a city, etc. The results of this analysis showed that the proposed methods can be used as an alternative approach to determine whether a given time

  2. Development of the Sea Star Echinaster (Othilia) brasiliensis, with Inference on the Evolution of Development and Skeletal Plates in Asteroidea.

    PubMed

    Lopes, Elinia Medeiros; Ventura, Carlos Renato Rezende

    2016-02-01

    We describe the development and juvenile morphology of the sea star Echinaster (Othilia) brasiliensis in order to explore evolutionary developmental modes and skeletal homologies. This species produces large, buoyant eggs (0.6 ± 0.03 mm diameter), and has a typical lecithotrophic brachiolaria larva. The planktonic brachiolaria larva is formed 2-4 days after fertilization, when cilia cover the surface. Early juveniles are completely formed by 18 days of age. Initial growth is supported by maternal nutrients while the stomach continues to develop until 60 days after fertilization, when juveniles reach about 0.5 mm of radius length. The madreporite was observed 88 days after fertilization. In the youngest juvenile skeleton of E. (O.) brasiliensis, the madreporite and odontophore are homologous to those of other recent, non-paxillosid asteroids, and follow the Late Madreporic Mode. The emergence of plates related to the ambulacral system follows the Ocular Plate Rule. The development and juvenile skeletal morphology of this species are similar to those of the few other studied species in the genus Echinaster. This study corroborates the notion that the mode of development--including a short-lived lecithotrophic brachiolaria larva--in all Echinaster species shares a similar pattern that may be conserved throughout the evolutionary history of the group. PMID:26896175

  3. Development of the Sea Star Echinaster (Othilia) brasiliensis, with Inference on the Evolution of Development and Skeletal Plates in Asteroidea.

    PubMed

    Lopes, Elinia Medeiros; Ventura, Carlos Renato Rezende

    2016-02-01

    We describe the development and juvenile morphology of the sea star Echinaster (Othilia) brasiliensis in order to explore evolutionary developmental modes and skeletal homologies. This species produces large, buoyant eggs (0.6 ± 0.03 mm diameter), and has a typical lecithotrophic brachiolaria larva. The planktonic brachiolaria larva is formed 2-4 days after fertilization, when cilia cover the surface. Early juveniles are completely formed by 18 days of age. Initial growth is supported by maternal nutrients while the stomach continues to develop until 60 days after fertilization, when juveniles reach about 0.5 mm of radius length. The madreporite was observed 88 days after fertilization. In the youngest juvenile skeleton of E. (O.) brasiliensis, the madreporite and odontophore are homologous to those of other recent, non-paxillosid asteroids, and follow the Late Madreporic Mode. The emergence of plates related to the ambulacral system follows the Ocular Plate Rule. The development and juvenile skeletal morphology of this species are similar to those of the few other studied species in the genus Echinaster. This study corroborates the notion that the mode of development--including a short-lived lecithotrophic brachiolaria larva--in all Echinaster species shares a similar pattern that may be conserved throughout the evolutionary history of the group.

  4. Temporal variations of zooplankton biomass in the Ligurian Sea inferred from long time series of ADCP data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bozzano, R.; Fanelli, E.; Pensieri, S.; Picco, P.; Schiano, M. E.

    2013-08-01

    Three years of 300 kHz ADCP data collected in the central Ligurian Sea are analyzed to investigate the variability of the zooplankton biomass and the Diel Vertical Migrations (DVM) in the upper thermocline. After a pre-processing aimed at avoiding the slant range attenuation, hourly volume backscattering strength time series are obtained. Despite the lack of concurrent net samples collection, different migration patterns are identified and their temporal variability examined by means of time-frequency analysis. The effect of changes in the environmental condition is also investigated. Highest zooplankton biomasses are observed in April-May just after the peak of surface primary production in March-April. The main migration pattern points to a "nocturnal" migration with zooplankton organisms occurring deeper in the water column during the day and shallower at night. Also twilight migration is highlighted during this study. The largest migrations are recorded in November-December, corresponding to lowest backscattering strength values and are likely attributable to larger and more active organisms (i.e. euphausiids and mesopelagic fish). The results suggest further applications of the historical ADCP time series available.

  5. Atlantic sea surface height and velocity spectra inferred from satellite altimetry and a hierarchy of numerical simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biri, Stavroula; Serra, Nuno; Scharffenberg, Martin G.; Stammer, Detlef

    2016-06-01

    Frequency and wavenumber spectra of sea surface height (SSH) and surface geostrophic velocity are presented, as they result for the Atlantic Ocean from a 23 year long altimeter data set and from a hierarchy of ocean model simulations with spatial resolutions of 16, 8, and 4 km. SSH frequency spectra follow a spectral decay of roughly f-1 on long periods; toward higher frequencies a spectral decay close to f-2 is found. For geostrophic velocity spectra, a somewhat similar picture emerges, albeit with flatter spectral relations. In terms of geostrophic velocity wavenumber spectra, we find a general relation close to k-3 in the high-resolution model results. Outside low-energy regions all model spectra come close to observed spectra at low frequencies and wavenumbers in terms of shape and amplitude. However, the highest model resolution appears essential for reproducing the observed spectra at high frequencies and wavenumbers. This holds especially for velocity spectra in mid and high latitudes, suggesting that eddy resolving ocean models need to be run at a resolution of 1/24° or better if one were to fully resolve the observed mesoscale eddy field. Causes for remaining discrepancies between observed and simulated results can be manifold. At least partially, they can be rationalized by taking into account an aliasing effect of unresolved temporal variability in the altimetric observations occurring on periods smaller than the 20 days Nyquist period of the altimetric data, thereby leading to an overestimate of variability in the altimetric estimates, roughly on periods below 100 days.

  6. Geophysical evidence and inferred triggering factors of submarine landslides on the western continental margin of the Ulleung Basin, East Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cukur, Deniz; Kim, Seong-Pil; Kong, Gee-Soo; Bahk, Jang-Jun; Horozal, Senay; Um, In-Kwon; Lee, Gwang-Soo; Chang, Tae-Soo; Ha, Hun-Jun; Völker, David; Kim, Jung-Ki

    2016-08-01

    Submarine landslides form very complex depositional and erosional features on the seafloor, and their dynamics and triggering processes are yet to be understood completely. Numerous studies are being undertaken both because of the scientific significance but also for their potential harm to seafloor infrastructure and coastal areas. This study investigates the styles and causes of landsliding along the western margin of the Ulleung Basin in the East Sea, based on multiple sparker, subbottom profiler, multibeam echosounder and sediment core datasets collected in 2015. The bathymetric analyses indicate that the southern slope of the Ulleung Basin has experienced at least seven submarine failures. These failures left clear arcuate-shaped scarps that initiated at water depths of ~600 m. The observed headwall scarps have heights that exceed 60 m and appear to be the result of retrogressive-type failures. Seismic reflection data clearly image the basal sliding surface that is characterized by a prominent high-amplitude reflector. Chaotic-to-transparent seismic facies occur immediately downslope of the headwall scarps; these represent ~20 m thick landslide deposits. Gravity cores taken from areas adjacent to the scars suggest that these slides are older than ca. 97 ka. Interpretation of the present data shows that faults appear to cut recent sediments upslope of scarps, and that the slope may still be in an active phase of failure. Seismic data also image various overpressurized gases and/or gas fluids, as evidenced by the occurrence of pockmarks and seismic chimneys in upslope or adjacent areas of the scarps. Hence, earthquakes associated with tectonic activity and development of fluid overpressure may have acted as the main conditioning factor for destabilizing the slope sediments. Geotechnical stability analyses indicate that the sampled slope sediments are exceptionally stable under present-day conditions, even under seismic loading. This finding points to additional

  7. Morphotectonics and paleoseismicity of the Gemlik fault zone, middle strand of the NAFZ in Marmara region, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ucarkus, G.; Akyüz, S.; Barka, A.; Tari, U.

    2003-04-01

    The North Anatolian fault zone splays into three strands in the eastern Marmara region. The northern strand crosses the Sapanca lake and extends through north of Armutlu peninsula, northern Marmara Sea and Saros Bay. The middle strand splays from Mudurnu valley in SW direction and extends through Geyve, Iznik, Gemlik, Bandirma and Bayramic. The southern strand is located at Yenisehir, Bursa, Manyas, Gönen, Pazarköy and ends by the Gulf of Edremit on land. GPS measurements and recent earthquakes indicate that the dominant motion along these strands is strike-slip. GPS measurements also suggests that the northern strand of the fault zone is more active than other two strands. The GPS rate for the middle strand is 1-2 mm/yr while it is 16-17 mm/yr on the northern strand. Although some sections of each strand has ruptured during the last century earthquakes, seismicity patterns of the Marmara Region do not illustrate a clear picture of strands accept the northern strand. Based on the historical records, the middle strand is not known to have experienced any large earthquakes in at least the last 200 years. Gemlik fault zone, the survey area of this study, lies in the western extend of middle strand consisting of several segments between Iznik Lake and Gulf of Gemlik. While the morphologic features along the eastern middle strand indicate a clear right lateral strike-slip movement, the fault expressions by the south of Iznik lake going through Gemlik bay are strike-slip with some amount of vertical component of north-side down. The fault borders the northern slope of the Gemiç Mountains representing an én-echelon geometry in the SW of Iznik Lake. Normal component of this fault is traceable in the field. E-W trending scarplets, which can be related with a fault rupture, are exposed on the flat alluvial fan in front of the Gemiç Mountains. To the west, fault follows the high topography at the south of Karsak pass and reaches to the Gulf of Gemlik. Another fault

  8. Age of overwash and rate of relative sea-level rise inferred from detrital heads and microatolls of medieval corals at Anegada, British Virgin Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jennifer, W.; Feuillet, N.; Robert, H.; Brian, A.; Ten Brink, U. S.; Deschamps, P.; Tuttle, M. P.; Wei, Y.; Fuentes, Z.

    2012-12-01

    Coral boulders deposited on Anegada, an island 120 km south of the Puerto Rico Trench, record overwash dated to AD 1200-1450 and relative sea-level changes that preceded it. Composed largely of Pleistocene limestone, Anegada is less than 8 m above sea level and is fringed on the north and east by a coral reef where Atlantic Ocean waves break. The lowest parts of the island were washed over from the north in AD 1650-1800, as judged from landforms and deposits reported previously (doi:10.1007/s11069-010-9622-6). The coral boulders indicate overwash of higher elevation and earlier age. The boulders were apparently torn from the adjacent reef by a tsunami of nearby origin, as inferred in companion abstracts on geology and modeling. We found the corals scattered in five areas inland from the north shore. Two of the areas show solitary coral heads 1500 m from the reef. The boulders are more numerous in the three other areas, where they are up to 500-700 m from the reef and up to 4 m above sea level. Some were transported over beach ridges or through breaches cut into them. Others are hundreds of meters inland from a modern storm berm. Most rest on the Pleistocene limestone. Many are overturned. Most are broken but few are whole. The largest measured diameter is 2 m and the greatest measured height is 1 m. Most of the boulders are of the brain coral Diploria strigosa, but smaller Porites asteroides and Montastrea annularis are also present. Some of the D. strigosa retain the rounded shape typical of living heads and are dimpled with holes perhaps left by feather-duster worms. The preservation of these features suggests that many of the boulders came ashore alive. We avoided dating a head that shows field evidence for death before transport; an erosional surface cuts across its youngest growth bands and is covered with the remains of encrusting marine organisms. Among the 18 coral boulders dated, 13 form a young group with ages in the range 890±25 to 1020±25 14C yr BP

  9. Earthquake induced landslide hazard: a multidisciplinary field observatory in the Marmara SUPERSITE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bigarré, Pascal

    2014-05-01

    Earthquake-triggered landslides have an increasing disastrous impact in seismic regions due to the fast growing urbanization and infrastructures. Just considering disasters from the last fifteen years, among which the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, these events generated tens of thousands of coseismic landslides. Those resulted in amazing death toll and considerable damages, affecting the regional landscape including its hydrological main features. Despite a strong impetus in research during past decades, knowledge on those geohazards is still fragmentary, while databases of high quality observational data are lacking. These phenomena call for further collaborative researches aiming eventually to enhance preparedness and crisis management. As one of the three SUPERSITE concept FP7 projects dealing with long term high level monitoring of major natural hazards at the European level, the MARSITE project gathers research groups in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed in the Sea of Marmara Region, one of the most densely populated parts of Europe and rated at high seismic risk level since the 1999 Izmit and Duzce devastating earthquakes. Besides the seismic threat, landslides in Turkey and in this region constitute an important source of loss. The 1999 Earthquake caused extensive landslides while tsunami effects were observed during the post-event surveys in several places along the coasts of the Izmit bay. The 6th Work Package of MARSITE project gathers 9 research groups to study earthquake-induced landslides focusing on two sub-regional areas of high interest. First, the Cekmece-Avcilar peninsula, located westwards of Istanbul, is a highly urbanized concentrated landslide prone area, showing high susceptibility to both rainfalls while affected by very significant seismic site effects. Second, the off-shore entrance of the Izmit Gulf, close to the termination of the surface rupture of the 1999 earthquake

  10. Radioactivity levels in mussels and sediments of the Golden Horn by the Bosphorus Strait, Marmara Sea.

    PubMed

    Kılıç, Önder; Belivermiş, Murat; Gözel, Furkan; Carvalho, Fernando P

    2014-09-15

    The Golden Horn is an estuary located in the center of İstanbul receiving freshwater discharges from two creeks and connecting to the Bosphorus Strait. Activity concentrations of natural and artificial radionuclides were determined in mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) and sediments from the Golden Horn sampled in February 2012. Mean activity concentrations of (137)Cs, (40)K, (226)Ra, (228)Ra, (210)Po and (210)Pb in the mussels were determined at 1.03±0.23, 389±41.6, 2.61±1.23, not detected (ND), 91.96±37.88 and 11.48±4.85 Bq kg(-1), respectively. In sediments, it was observed that (137)Cs, (40)K, (226)Ra, (228)Ra, (210)Po and (210)Pb activity concentrations in<63 μm particle fraction of sediment were generally higher than those determined in mussels. Po-210 and (210)Po/(210)Pb ratios in mussels from the Golden Horn were much lower than in mussels from other coastal regions and this was related to low plankton productivity and eutrophication of the Golden Horn.

  11. Radioactivity levels in mussels and sediments of the Golden Horn by the Bosphorus Strait, Marmara Sea.

    PubMed

    Kılıç, Önder; Belivermiş, Murat; Gözel, Furkan; Carvalho, Fernando P

    2014-09-15

    The Golden Horn is an estuary located in the center of İstanbul receiving freshwater discharges from two creeks and connecting to the Bosphorus Strait. Activity concentrations of natural and artificial radionuclides were determined in mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) and sediments from the Golden Horn sampled in February 2012. Mean activity concentrations of (137)Cs, (40)K, (226)Ra, (228)Ra, (210)Po and (210)Pb in the mussels were determined at 1.03±0.23, 389±41.6, 2.61±1.23, not detected (ND), 91.96±37.88 and 11.48±4.85 Bq kg(-1), respectively. In sediments, it was observed that (137)Cs, (40)K, (226)Ra, (228)Ra, (210)Po and (210)Pb activity concentrations in<63 μm particle fraction of sediment were generally higher than those determined in mussels. Po-210 and (210)Po/(210)Pb ratios in mussels from the Golden Horn were much lower than in mussels from other coastal regions and this was related to low plankton productivity and eutrophication of the Golden Horn. PMID:25023437

  12. Glacial-Interglacial sea level reconstruction of the last 570 kyr: Inferences from a new benthic δ18O record of IODP Site U1386 (Gulf of Cadiz)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaboth, S.; Lourens, L. J.; de Boer, B.

    2015-12-01

    Sea level reconstructions on geological time scales are crucial for our understanding of glacial-interglacial cycles in the past, and thus offer context for current and projected changes. Global sea-level variations since the last glacial maximum have been well established based on numerous well-dated coral reef terraces and speleothem records. Throughout the Late Pleistocene, the coral and speleothem based data sets become more incomplete and reliable dated sea-level points, though showing the general amplitude of sea-level changes, are insufficient to establish the exact pattern and timing of millennial-scale changes. To gain further insight into glacial-interglacial sea level variations throughout the Late Pleistocene, we generated a new benthic δ18O record of IODP Site U1386 in the Gulf of Cadiz for the past ~ 570 kyr. Site U1386 is located within the Gulf of Cadiz Contourite Depositional System (CDS). These sediments are characterized by high sedimentation rate (~35 cm/kyr), providing a unique opportunity to study sea level oscillations in high resolution. To estimate ice volume and deep-water temperature changes we used an inverse forward modeling approach based on our benthic δ18O data. The coupled model includes four ice-sheet-shelf components that simulate glaciation on Eurasia, North America, Greenland and Antarctica, thereby explicitly accounting for all individual ice-volume contributions throughout the investigated time period. Our initial findings suggest that older glacial periods were characterized by repeated and substantial δ18O enrichment events preceding their respective glacial maximum. We argue that the observed δ18O enrichment events are not an expression of local hydrographic changes of salinity and/or temperature limited to the Gulf of Cadiz but probably relate to global ice volume changes. In this regard, our results contrast estimates derived from the global mean benthic δ18O LR04 stack. On a regional scale, our results show

  13. Seafloor slow vertical displacement inferred by sea bottom pressure measurements in shallow water: an application to the Campi Flegrei volcanic area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chierici, Francesco; Pignagnoli, Luca; Iannaccone, Giovanni; Guardato, Sergio; Locritani, Marina; Embriaco, Davide; Donnarumma, Gian Paolo; La Rocca, Adriano; Pinto, Salvatore; Beranzoli, Laura

    2016-04-01

    The vertical component of sea floor displacement in tectonic or volcanically active areas can be observed using sea bottom pressure recorders. These measurements are usually acquired in areas affected by strong dynamics with large vertical displacement and in deep water, where the noise induced by the sea state is low. Under these conditions the contribution of the variation of sea water density and the contribution of the instrumental drift - a typical feature of the bottom pressure recorders - can be negligible. We have developed a new methodology to monitor vertical sea floor displacement both in areas with small and slow deformation, and in shallow water. We take advantage of bottom pressure recorder data, augmented with ancillary sea level, barometric and water physical parameters measurements. We have applied this method to the data collected by a bottom pressure recorder deployed at 100 m w.d. in the Campi Flegrei Caldera as part of CUMAS multiparameter monitoring system. During several months of 2011 we have observed a small uplift episode related to the bradiseismic activity of the area. These observations are compatible with other geodetic data recorded in the region and provide unprecedented measurements of the vertical deformation in the marine area.

  14. Rupture Directivity Effect on the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps in the Marmara Region, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spagnuolo, E.; Akinci, A.; Herrero, A.; Pucci, S.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, we attempt to incorporate the rupture directivity effects into seismic hazard analysis in the Marmara region, Turkey. We introduce information about the fault segments by focusing on the fault rupture characteristics, near source directivity effects and its influence on the probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) accounting for the azimuthal variations of the ground motion spatial distribution. An analytical model developed by Spudich and Chiou (2008) is used as a corrective factor that modifies four ground motion predictive equations (GMPEs) (Abrahamson & Silva 2008; Boore & Atkinson 2008; Campbell & Bozorgnia 2008; Chiou &Youngs 2008) and accounts for rupture related parameters that generally lump together into the term directivity effect. In this paper, we only use the relation calibrated for the Abrahamson & Silva (2008) and Boore & Atkinson (2008). In order to evaluate the impact of the rupture directivity effects to ground motion hazard in the near source we attempt to calculate the fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard maps (PSHA) of mean Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) having 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on rock site condition. Therefore the PSHMs for the Marmara region is produced incorporating detailed knowledge of active faulting and tectonic rates in earthquake recurrence models using the available database and the most innovative approaches. In order to test the impact of the corrective factor on seismic hazard we first considered its effect on a normal fault and on a strike slip fault as a function of magnitude. Seismic hazard is given in terms of Spectral Acceleration (SA) at seven different periods. We also report the percentage ratio between the seismic hazards computed with the directivity model and without it, over the seismic hazard resulting from the standard practice. Finally, we improve the seismic hazard maps in the near fault source incorporating the directivity effects in the ground motion prediction in

  15. Shifts in biological productivity inferred from nutrient drawdown in the southern Beaufort Sea (2003-2011) and northern Baffin Bay (1997-2011), Canadian Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergeron, Myriam; Tremblay, Jean-Éric

    2014-06-01

    This paper reports the first in situ evidence of change in the net biological productivity of high-latitude western Arctic seas. Estimates of seasonal drawdown for major plant nutrients show that net community production (NCP) shifted differently in two contrasted Canadian oceanographic settings. In the stratified southeast Beaufort Sea, seasonal nitrate consumption increased 1.6-fold between 2003-2004 and 2010-2011. The concomitant thickening of the nitrate-depleted layer in summer/fall implies that subsurface chlorophyll maxima now consume nutrients over a larger extent of the water column. Meanwhile, nitrate consumption in the once productive North Water Polynya declined by 65% and is now nearly on par with the oligotrophic coastal Beaufort Sea. This decline is attributed to freshening and increased stratification. Commensurate changes in silicate and phosphate drawdown in the two regions indicate that diatoms drove the spatial and temporal shifts in NCP.

  16. Phylogeography of Tetrancistrum nebulosi (Monogenea, Dactylogyridae) on the host of mottled spinefoot (Siganus fuscescens) in the South China Sea, inferred from mitochondrial COI and ND2 genes.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ming; Yan, Shuai; Brown, Christopher L; Shaharom-Harrison, Faizah; Shi, Su-Fen; Yang, Ting-Bao

    2014-10-16

    Abstract To examine the phylogeographical pattern of Tetrancistrum nebulosi (Monogenea, Dactylogyridae) in the South China Sea, fragments of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 genes were obtained for 220 individuals collected from 8 localities along the southeast coast of China and 1 locality in Terengganu, Malaysia. Based on these two genes, two and three distinct clades with geographic signals were revealed on the phylogenetic trees respectively. The divergence between these clades was estimated to occur in the late Pleistocene. Analysis of molecular variance and pairwise FST suggested a high rate of gene flow among individuals sampled from the Chinese coast, but with obvious genetic differentiation from the Malaysian population. Mismatch distribution and neutrality tests indicated that the T. nebulosi population experienced expansion in Pleistocene low sea level periods. Vicariance was considered to account for the genetic divergence between Chinese and Malaysian populations, while sea level fluctuations and mainland-island connections during glacial cycles were associated with the slight genetic divergence between the populations along the mainland coast of China and those off Sanya. On the contrary, oceanographic circulations and host migration could lead to genetic homogeneity of populations distributed along the mainland coast of China.

  17. Relative information content of polymorphic microsatellites and mitochondrial DNA for inferring dispersal and population genetic structure in the olive sea snake, Aipysurus laevis.

    PubMed

    Lukoschek, V; Waycott, M; Keogh, J S

    2008-07-01

    Polymorphic microsatellites are widely considered more powerful for resolving population structure than mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers, particularly for recently diverged lineages or geographically proximate populations. Weaker population subdivision for biparentally inherited nuclear markers than maternally inherited mtDNA may signal male-biased dispersal but can also be attributed to marker-specific evolutionary characteristics and sampling properties. We discriminated between these competing explanations with a population genetic study on olive sea snakes, Aipysurus laevis. A previous mtDNA study revealed strong regional population structure for A. laevis around northern Australia, where Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations have influenced the genetic signatures of shallow-water marine species. Divergences among phylogroups dated to the Late Pleistocene, suggesting recent range expansions by previously isolated matrilines. Fine-scale population structure within regions was, however, poorly resolved for mtDNA. In order to improve estimates of fine-scale genetic divergence and to compare population structure between nuclear and mtDNA, 354 olive sea snakes (previously sequenced for mtDNA) were genotyped for five microsatellite loci. F statistics and Bayesian multilocus genotype clustering analyses found similar regional population structure as mtDNA and, after standardizing microsatellite F statistics for high heterozygosities, regional divergence estimates were quantitatively congruent between marker classes. Over small spatial scales, however, microsatellites recovered almost no genetic structure and standardized F statistics were orders of magnitude smaller than for mtDNA. Three tests for male-biased dispersal were not significant, suggesting that recent demographic expansions to the typically large population sizes of A. laevis have prevented microsatellites from reaching mutation-drift equilibrium and local populations may still be diverging.

  18. A 200-Year Record of Interannual SST and pH Variability from the Lesser Antilles (Caribbean Sea, North Atlantic) Inferred from a Siderastrea Siderea Reef Coral

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douville, E.; Paterne, M.; Feuillet, N.; Noury, C.; Bordier, L.; Thil, F.

    2014-12-01

    Global warming and ocean acidification caused by the rising levels of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere need to be better constrained by long-term studies of high resolution natural archives, especially at inter-annual and decadal scales. In the framework of the French INSU program LEFE/CYBER ACID-Antilles, here we developed a 200-year long interannual time series of sea surface temperature and pH based on the geochemical composition of tropical reef forming coral. The selected tropical coral called CHANCEL-1 is a colony of genus Siderastrea Siderea which was collected in 2008 from a living micro-atoll off Martinique in the Lesser Antilles, facing the eastern side of the Caribbean Sea. The colony of 1-meter extension presents a mean growth rate of 4 - 5 mm/yr. Along the growth axis, we measured the boron isotopic composition (delta11B) and trace element ratios (Li/Mg, Sr/Ca), which reveal a progressive decrease of the surface water pH and increase of temperature during the past 200 years. These observations cooperate the anthropogenic forcing, i.e. rising atmospheric CO2 and rising sea surface temperatures due to global warming. However, other processes apparently affect the geochemical records, as indicated by sub-decadal variations of pH and temperature reconstruction overprinting the long term global trend. Possible drivers of such most likely regional variability might be decadal changes of oceanographic conditions (upwelling, freshwater runoff, seawater masse changes, etc.) as well as species dependent biological controls.

  19. Genetic evidence for a single stock of the deep-sea teleost Beryx decadactylus in the North Atlantic Ocean as inferred from mtDNA control region analysis.

    PubMed

    Friess, C; Sedberry, G R

    2011-02-01

    Mitochondrial control region sequences of 141 alfonsino Beryx decadactylus sampled off the coast of South Carolina were compared with 164 sequences from B. decadactylus collected in the Azores for inferring population structure and demographic history of this deep-water teleost in the North Atlantic Ocean. Analysis of molecular variance showed that 100% of the genetic variation was found within populations, indicating an absence of population structure (Φ(ST) = -0· 003). Neutrality tests and mismatch distribution analyses of pooled sequences suggested that B. decadactylus in the North Atlantic Ocean have undergone population expansion. These results may indicate that transatlantic gene flow occurs, possibly through passive drift of larvae or adult migration. The potential of a shared stock between the eastern and western North Atlantic Ocean will need to be considered if a directed fishery for B. decadactylus were to develop in the U.S.A.

  20. Analysis of the ICE-6G (VM5a) global GIA model performance with respect to geological inferences of relative sea-level history: from Barbados to the US East Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, K.; Peltier, W. R.

    2013-12-01

    Models of the glacial isostatic adjustment process require two fundamental inputs: a history of ice-sheet loading and a model of the radial variation of mantle viscosity. These models, which are dominated by the influence of the Late Pleistocene cycle of glaciation and deglaciation, may be tested and refined by comparing relative sea-level history predictions to geological inferences based upon appropriate sea level indicators. Datasets of high-quality relative sea-level history reconstructions are available for many globally distributed regions and were crucial in the development of the existing spherically symmetric visco-elastic models of the internal structure of Earth's mantle. These reconstructions have also proven to be essential in the development of ice sheet histories for the Late Quaternary, such as the most recent ICE-6G(VM5a) model. This latest model is a refinement of the ICE-5G(VM2) structure, which has been made possible by the increased availability of accurate space geodetic constraints from previously ice-covered regions and from peripheral regions dominated by the process of forebulge collapse, in particular in the continental United States. A geologically derived sea level record of particular importance in the development of these models has been the coral based record from the island of Barbados in the Caribbean Sea, which has provided, once corrected for tectonics, a very accurate estimate of the globally averaged ice equivalent (eustatic) history of sea level change from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) onwards. However, a recent analysis by Austermann et al. (2013, Nature Geoscience) has led these authors to suggest an alternative interpretation that centers on the notion that a large amount of North American ice might be missing from the ICE-5G (VM2) model at LGM. In this paper, we demonstrate this alternative interpretation to be incorrect and thereby reinforce the original interpretation of the tectonics corrected record from Barbados as

  1. Implementing the effect of the rupture directivity on PSHA maps: Application to the Marmara Region (Turkey)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrero, Andre; Spagnuolo, Elena; Akinci, Aybige; Pucci, Stefano

    2016-04-01

    In the present study we attempted to improve the seismic hazard assessment taking into account possible sources of epistemic uncertainty and the azimuthal variability of the ground motions which, at a particular site, is significantly influenced by the rupture mechanism and the rupture direction relative to the site. As a study area we selected Marmara Region (Turkey), especially the city of Istanbul which is characterized by one of the highest levels of seismic risk in Europe and the Mediterranean region. The seismic hazard in the city is mainly associated with two active fault segments which are located at about 20-30 km south of Istanbul. In this perspective first we proposed a methodology to incorporate this new information such as nucleation point in a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) framework. Secondly we introduced information about those fault segments by focusing on the fault rupture characteristics which affect the azimuthal variations of the ground motion spatial distribution i.e. source directivity effect and its influence on the probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). An analytical model developed by Spudich and Chiou (2008) is used as a corrective factor that modifies the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA, Power et al. 2008) ground motion predictive equations (GMPEs) introducing rupture related parameters that generally lump together into the term directivity effect. We used the GMPEs as derived by the Abrahamson and Silva (2008) and the Boore and Atkinson (2008); our results are given in terms of 10% probability of exceedance of PSHA (at several periods from 0.5 s to 10 s) in 50 years on rock site condition; the correction for directivity introduces a significant contribution to the percentage ratio between the seismic hazards computed using the directivity model respect to the seismic hazard standard practice. In particular, we benefited the dynamic simulation from a previous study (Aochi & Utrich, 2015) aimed at evaluating the

  2. Flow path of the 1993 Hokkaido-Nansei-oki earthquake seismoturbidite, suthern margin of the Japan sea north basin, inferred from anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Abdeldayem, A.L.; Ikehara, K.; Yamazaki, T.

    2004-01-01

    A magnetic fabric analysis has been carried out on standard cube samples from one gravity and three multiple cores extracted from the Shiribeshi trough and Okushiri basin in the southern margin of the Japan sea north basin. It is aimed at tracing the flow path of turbidites that are assumed to have deposited in response to the 1993 Hokkaido-Nansei-oki earthquake. Magnetic remanence was used for reorientation to the geographic coordinates. Magnetomineralogical investigations including low-temperature magnetometry, magnetic hysteresis loops and isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM) acquisition experiments indicate that pseudosingle domain to multidomain magnetite is the principal magnetic carrier and is, therefore, capable of providing reliable anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) palaeocurrent direction estimates. A well-developed near-horizontal magnetic foliation and minimum susceptibility axes lying close to vertical are recorded at all sites reflecting an original depositional fabric. Clearly defined magnetic lineation was observed at all sites and is considered to reflect the palaeocurrent direction. Down-core changes of susceptibility and key AMS parameters show good correspondence to occurrences of turbidite layers marking the increase of input of influx materials. In agreement with results from recent marine surveys and IZANAGI side-scan sonar images, an NNE transportation trend has been estimated for sediments at sites from the Shiribeshi trough with a possible depositing path initiating from the slope bounding the south and southeastern margin down to the trough floor. Similarly, a SSE palaeocurrent direction has been estimated for sediments from the Okushiri basin with evidence for a relatively strong transporting current flowing through the canyons along the steep slope bounding the north and northeastern margins of the basin. The present results agree with the view that slope failure is the most probable mechanism for the down-slope transport

  3. Patient satisfaction in the outpatients' chemotherapy unit of Marmara University, Istanbul, Turkey: a staff survey

    PubMed Central

    Turhal, Nazim S; Efe, Basak; Gumus, Mahmut; Aliustaoglu, Mehmet; Karamanoglu, Ayla; Sengoz, Meric

    2002-01-01

    Background We conducted a survey to find out how patients feel about the care they receive in the outpatient chemotherapy unit of Marmara University Hospital. Methods The American College of Physicians Patient Satisfaction survey translated into Turkish was used. A meeting was held with all involved staff, before conducting the survey, to review the purpose and determine the process. The study was conducted with 100 random patients. Results Consistent with cancer frequency, most patients had either lung, colorectal or breast cancer. Their insurance was government sponsored in close to 90%. The educational levels were above Turkish median but consistent with the area the hospital is serving. They were coming to the unit on average 8.5 months. The responses were not influenced by the surveyed diagnosis, age, sex or educational status (p > 0,05). Particularly health care team's attention, trust and courtesy came forward as strong points. The weaknesses noted as difficulties in booking an outpatient doctor visit appointment because the phone line was busy or the secretary was not courteous, the excessive amount of time and effort it required to get laboratory and radiology results. Conclusion The health care system is basically a service based industry and customer satisfaction is at utmost importance just as in other service-oriented sectors. We hope this study will shed light in that area and Turkish health care providers will pay closer attention to how their patients feel about the services that they are getting. PMID:12443536

  4. Evaluation of the short-term sea cliff retreat along the Tróia-Sines Embayed Coast (Costa da Galé sector), using stereo digital aerial images and Bayesian inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gama, C.; Jalobeanu, A.

    2011-12-01

    Monitoring the sediment budget of coastal systems is essential to understand the costal equilibrium, and is an important aspect to be considered in coastal management. Thus, the identification and the quantitative evaluation of sedimentary sources and sinks are the first steps towards a better understanding of the dynamics of coastal morphology. The Tróia-Sines Embayed Coast (TSEC) in the southwest Portuguese coast corresponds to a continuous sandy beach that extends for approximately 65 km. It is limited at north by the Sado river estuary and at south by the Sines cape. Beaches are discontinuously limited landward by dunes (≈42 km) and by sea cliffs (≈18 km) made of poorly consolidated Plio-Plistocene detrital deposits. Cliff erosion by subaerial processes or gullying is a continuous phenomenon that contributes a significant amount of sediment to the TSEC coastal system, which is what we want to measure. Mainly due to winter rainfall, sea cliffs develop debris fans at the backshore inner limit, therefore we chose to make morphological measurements at one year interval. Thus, two series digital aerial images at 20 cm resolution were acquired in Oct 2008 and July 2009, supported by a collection of ground control points (GCP) to constrain the sensor orientation. Digital aerial stereo image pairs are used as main data source to reconstruct digital surface models (DSM). A new stereo photogrammetric method is used, based on dense disparity maps and Bayesian inference (Jalobeanu et al, 2010 and Jalobeanu, 2011). The originality of this method is in the computation of the spatial distribution of elevation errors in the DSM using stochastic modelling and probabilistic inference, which helps to detect the statistically significant changes in the estimated topography. The difference between the two generated DSMs is used to characterize the variability of the main subaerial beach morphodynamics parameters, such as: i) the alongshore beach configuration; ii) the beach

  5. Inference of super-resolution ocean pCO2 and air-sea CO2 fluxes from non-linear and multiscale processing methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernández-Carrasco, Ismael; Sudre, Joel; Garçon, Veronique; Yahia, Hussein; Dewitte, Boris; Garbe, Christoph; Illig, Séréna; Montes, Ivonne; Dadou, Isabelle; Paulmier, Aurélien; Butz, André

    2014-05-01

    In recent years the role of submesoscale activity is emerging as being more and more important to understand global ocean properties, for instance, for accurately estimating the sources and sinks of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) at the air-sea interface. The scarcity of oceanographic cruises and the lack of available satellite products for GHG concentrations at high resolution prevent from obtaining a global assessment of their spatial variability at small scales. In this work we develop a novel method to reconstruct maps of CO2 fluxes at super resolution (4km) using SST and ocean colour data at this resolution, and CarbonTracker CO2 fluxes data at low resolution (110 km). The responsible process for propagating the information between scales is related to cascading properties and multiscale organization, typical of fully developed turbulence. The methodology, based on the Microcanonical Multifractal Formalism, makes use, from the knowledge of singularity exponents, of the optimal wavelet for the determination of the energy injection mechanism between scales. We perform a validation analysis of the results of our algorithm using pCO2 ocean data from in-situ measurements in the upwelling region off Namibia.

  6. Carbon cycling in primary production bottle incubations: inferences from grazing experiments and photosynthetic studies using 14C and 18O in the Arabian Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laws, Edward A.; Landry, Michael R.; Barber, Richard T.; Campbell, Lisa; Dickson, Mary-Lynn; Marra, John

    Estimates of photosynthesis based on the incorporation of 14C-labeled inorganic carbon into particulate carbon were compared to estimates of gross photosynthesis based on net O 2 production and the production of 18O2 from H218O during the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (US JGOFS) Arabian Sea process cruises. For samples incubated below the surface and at optical depths<3, the 14C uptake : gross photosynthesis ratio averaged 0.45±0.1. This result is in accord with theoretical considerations of the combined effects of the Mehler reaction, photorespiration, dark respiration, excretion, and grazing effects on the two estimates of photosynthesis. The 14C uptake : gross photosynthesis ratio was distinctly higher (0.62) for samples incubated at the surface. This result is likely due to UV light effects, since the O 2 and 14C incubations were done in quartz and polysulfone bottles, respectively. The 14C uptake : gross photosynthesis ratio was lower (0.31) for bottles incubated at optical depths>3. This result probably reflects an increase in the ratio of dark respiration to net photosynthesis in the vicinity of the compensation light level.

  7. Intercomparison of Satellite Derived Gravity Time Series with Inferred Gravity Time Series from TOPEX/POSEIDON Sea Surface Heights and Climatological Model Output

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cox, C.; Au, A.; Klosko, S.; Chao, B.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The upcoming GRACE mission promises to open a window on details of the global mass budget that will have remarkable clarity, but it will not directly answer the question of what the state of the Earth's mass budget is over the critical last quarter of the 20th century. To address that problem we must draw upon existing technologies such as SLR, DORIS, and GPS, and climate modeling runs in order to improve our understanding. Analysis of long-period geopotential changes based on SLR and DORIS tracking has shown that addition of post 1996 satellite tracking data has a significant impact on the recovered zonal rates and long-period tides. Interannual effects such as those causing the post 1996 anomalies must be better characterized before refined estimates of the decadal period changes in the geopotential can be derived from the historical database of satellite tracking. A possible cause of this anomaly is variations in ocean mass distribution, perhaps associated with the recent large El Nino/La Nina. In this study, a low-degree spherical harmonic gravity time series derived from satellite tracking is compared with a TOPEX/POSEIDON-derived sea surface height time series. Corrections for atmospheric mass effects, continental hydrology, snowfall accumulation, and ocean steric model predictions will be considered.

  8. Aspects of the seasonal and mesoscale variabilities of the Northern Current in the western Mediterranean Sea inferred from the PROLIG-2 and PROS-6 experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sammari, C.; Millot, C.; Prieur, L.

    1995-06-01

    This paper presents a study of the Northern Current, which is a major component of the circulation in the western Mediterranean Sea. Our analysis is based on a monthly CTD survey (PROS-6 experiment), and on 12 current-meter time series collected at three depths on four moorings (PROLIG-2 experiment) from May to December 1985. These data support the fact that the mesoscale activity of the Northern Current smoothly decreases in spring-summer and then rapidly increases in early autumn. From the first period to the second, the fluctuations become more isotropic, their time and space scales become smaller and they have a more reduced vertical extent. The mesoscale phenomena are characterized by two main fluctuation bands: at all depths, a 10-20-d band only appears in the direction of the mean flow while a 3-6 d band mainly appears in a perpendicular direction, being polarized anticlockwise at some distance from the coast. The phase speeds are generally equal to or lower than ˜ 10 km/d in both bands. These values compare rather well with those deduced from previous analyses of hydrological data and baroclinic instability models. We hypothesize that the fluctuations at 10-20 d are pulses of the mean flow while those at 3-6 d are current meanders that are more intense in autumn than in spring-summer.

  9. [Applying multi-model inference to estimate growth parameters of greater lizard fish Saurida tumbil in Beibu Gulf, South China Sea].

    PubMed

    Hou, Gang; Liu, Jin-Dian; Feng, Bo; Yan, Yun-Rong; Lu, Huo-Sheng

    2014-03-01

    Age and growth parameters are key parameters in fish stock assessment and management strategies, thus it is crucial to choose an appropriate growth model for a target species. In this study, five growth models were set to fit the length-age data of greater lizard fish Saurida tumbil (n = 2046) collected monthly from December 2006 to July 2009 in the Beibu Gulf, South China Sea. The parameters for each model were estimated using the maximum likelihood method under the assumption of the additive error structure. Adjusted coefficient of determination (R2adj), root mean squared error (RMSE), Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were calculated for each model for fitness selection. The results indicated that the four statistical approaches were consistent in selection of the best growth model. The MMI approach indicated that the generalized VBGF was strongly verified and made up 95.9% of the AIC weight, indicating that this function fitted the length-age data of the greater lizard fish well. The growth function was Lt = 578.49 [1-e -0.05(t-0.14) 0.361.

  10. Pre to Post-Bomb Seawater 14C History in the Gulf of Alaska Inferred From a Deep Sea Coral: Isididae sp.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roark, B.; Guilderson, T. P.; Fallon, S.; Dunbar, R. B.; McCulloch, M.

    2006-12-01

    Deep-sea corals are an important archive of intermediate and deep-water variability, and provide the means to explore decadal to century-scale ocean dynamics in regions and time periods heretofore unexplored. We present a reconstruction of pre to post-bomb surface and interior water Δ14C based on analysis of deep-sea Isididae (bamboo) corals collected live at ~700 meters in June 2002 at Warwick Seamount, Gulf of Alaska. Concurrent isotope analyses of polyp/tissue and outermost portion of the hard horny proteinaceous gorgonin nodes compared with in situ dissolved inorganic carbon indicates that the gorgonin portion is derived exclusively from recently fixed/exported particulate organic carbon and thus a record of the surface water 14C/12C history. This is in contrast to the carbonate internode portion which is primarily derived from in situ dissolved inorganic carbon, and thus a record of the in situ 14C/12C. Radiocarbon analysis of gorgonin nodal sections captures the surface water D14C evolution. Pre-bomb values are -105‰ reaching a maximum of 100‰ before decreasing to collection values of 20‰. We anticipate that the post-bomb maximum will be in the early 1970s consistent with other mid to high latitude records and that the pre/post bomb transition initiates near 1956. If we utilize the gorgonin pre/post bomb transition as a tie-point and assume a linear growth rate the Isididae used in this study are 75- 125 years old. Carbonate Δ14C shows a 25‰ increase from -215 to -190‰ reflecting the penetration of bomb-14C in the sub-polar North Pacific. To place the carbonate time-series on a fixed timescale we determined the minor element chemistry and tested the inter-species reproducibility. The distribution of Sr is quite homogenous whereas Mg is not with higher Mg concentrations associated with centers of calcification. Age estimates using what appear to be annual Sr/Ca cycles, which we hypothesize are related to biomineralization cycles associated with a

  11. Viscosity structure of the oceanic lithosphere inferred from the differential late Quaternary sea-level variations for the southern Cook Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakada, Masao

    1996-09-01

    Late Quaternary sea-level variations for the southern Cook Islands such as Rarotonga and Mangaia provide information on the time-dependent crustal movement due to viscoelastic arching in response to loading by the Pleistocene volcanic island of Rarotonga. The lithospheric responses to both external and internal loads have been investigated to estimate the viscosity of the lower part of the lithosphere and to examine the initial stage of swell formation. Detailed observations of sea-level variations for the past 125 kyr indicate that the crustal uplift for Mangaia is greater than 10 m, while Rarotonga was apparently stable for this period. The following geophysical implications for the lithospheric rheology and loading model are derived from these observations. The observed differential crustal movement implies that the viscous relaxation associated with this volcanic loading is still proceeding in the lithosphere. The layer supporting stresses has therefore been migrating with time from weaker lower zones into the stronger upper zones for a lithosphere with a depth-dependent viscosity structure. This fact provides an important constraint on the viscosity of the lower part of lithosphere. The observation that Rarotonga has been apparently stable for this period is indicative of a local buoyant internal load in the upper mantle. This load may be related to small-scale and secondary convection in the asthenosphere. Surface uplift due to an internal load is therefore required to cancel the subsidence by volcanic loading. This problem has been examined for two simplified background density models. One is a model in which the density of the lithosphere is equal to that of the asthenosphere. For this model, very large mass anomalies which are 10 times larger than the external load are required beneath the lithosphere in order to explain the observed differential crustal movement of the islands. For an earth model for which the density of the lithosphere is greater than

  12. Twentieth century sea surface temperature and salinity variations at Timor inferred from paired coral δ18O and Sr/Ca measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cahyarini, Sri Yudawati; Pfeiffer, Miriam; Nurhati, Intan Suci; Aldrian, Edvin; Dullo, Wolf-Christian; Hetzinger, Steffen

    2014-07-01

    The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), which represents the global ocean circulation connecting the Pacific Warm Pool to the Indian Ocean, strongly influences the Indo-Pacific climate. ITF monitoring since the late 1990s using mooring buoys have provided insights on seasonal and interannual time scales. However, the absence of longer records limits our perspective on its evolution over the past century. Here, we present sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) proxy records from Timor Island located at the ITF exit passage via paired coral δ18O and Sr/Ca measurements spanning the period 1914-2004. These high-resolution proxy based climate data of the last century highlights improvements and cautions when interpreting paleoclimate records of the Indonesian region. If the seasonality of SST and SSS is not perfectly in phase, the application of coral Sr/Ca thermometry improves SST reconstructions compared to estimates based on coral δ18O only. Our records also underline the importance of ocean advection besides rainfall on local SSS in the region. Although the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) causes larger anomalies relative to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Timor coral-based SST and SSS records robustly correlate with IOD on interannual time scales, whereas ENSO only modifies Timor SST. Similarly, Timor SST and SSS are strongly linked to Indian Ocean decadal-scale variations that appear to lead Timor oceanographic conditions by about 1.6-2 years. Our study sheds new light on the complex signatures of Indo-Pacific climate modes on SST and SSS dynamics of the ITF. This article was corrected on 8 AUG 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

  13. Geophysical Features and Inferred Triggering Factors of Submarine Landslides in the Western Continental Margin of the Ulleung Basin, East Sea of Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cukur, D.; Kim, S. P.; Kong, G. S.; Yoon, Y.; Kim, J. K.; Choi, J. G.

    2015-12-01

    Submarine landslides form very complex features on the seafloor and the associated geological processes are yet to be known completely. Various researches are still undergoing not only for their profound academic significance but also for their hazardous impact potential to seafloor infrastructures and coastal areas. In order to investigate the morphology and cause of landslides along the western margin of the Ulleung Basin in the East Sea, we collected multiple geophysical datasets in the summer of 2015, including sparker, subbottom profiler, and multibeam echosounder. The preliminary analysis of the bathymetric data shows a number of U-shaped scarps that occur on a rather steep slope (up to 10°) in water depths of ~600 m. The scarps cover an area of ~100 km2 and have reliefs of up to 50 m. Seismic data clearly image erosional headwalls and the basal gliding plane which is characterized by a prominent high-amplitude reflector. Chaotic- to transparent-seismic facies, located immediately downslope of the headwall scarps, represent landslide deposits of about 20 m in thickness. At the base of slope, the slides form lens-shaped transparent bodies, resting on well-stratified turbidite deposits. Several V-shaped seafloor depressions near the head of these scarps are seen on the subbottom profiles. These depressions, which are ~5 m deep and ~150 m wide, are interpreted to be representing pockmarks, resulted from upward migration of gas in the sediment layers beneath. The presence of these pockmarks directly above the scars may suggest that the gases and/or gas fluids might be playing an important role for destabilizing slope sediments. Furthermore, subbottom profiles suggest the presence of numerous faults in close vicinity of headwall scarps; some are extending to the seafloor suggesting their recent activity. Earthquakes associated with tectonic activity are indicated to be the cause of these faults. Thus the fault-related earthquakes might be the final triggering

  14. Contributions of riverborne inorganic and organic matters to the benthic food web in the East China Sea as inferred from stable isotope ratios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, N. N.; Shiao, J. C.; Gong, G. C.; Kao, S. J.; Hsieh, C. H.

    2013-01-01

    Coastal areas adjoining rivers are nourished by both the riverborne nutrients and organic matters. Annually, the East China Sea (ECS) receives large quantities of particulate organic carbon transported from the Changjiang (Yangtze River), as well as nutrients, which have brought about high primary production in the ECS. This study evaluated the respective contributions of terrigenous organic matters (allochthonous food source) and nutrient-induced marine production (autochthonous food source) to the ECS benthic ecosystem by analyzing the stable isotope compositions for zooplankton, benthic crustacea and demersal fish. Zooplankton exhibited consistently higher δ13C values (-21.31‰ ~ -19.22‰) in the inner shelf than in the outer shelf. The δ13C signals of fish (-19.64‰ ~ -13.46‰) and crustacea (-18.87‰ ~ -15.00‰) showed strong reliance on the marine production across the ECS continental shelf, regardless of distance from the shore. Moreover, the benthic crustacea and fish exhibited significantly higher δ13C values in the highly productive inshore sites and the δ13C values decreased seawards, implying a higher intrusion of atmospheric CO2 and lower photosynthetic fractionation due to algal blooming in the inner shelf. The δ13C values of fish also showed significant positive correlations with the concentration of surface chlorophyll a and nitrogen. Riverborne nutrients closely linked marine benthic consumers to the terrestrial watershed and tightly coupled the pelagic and benthic ecosystems in the ECS. The stable isotope compositions of benthic consumers can act as an indicator for pelagic trophic status. The future research combining analyses of stable isotope and community structure may improve assessment on the balance between contribution and risk of phytoplankton blooms.

  15. Detailed structure of the Philippine Sea plate subducting along the Nankai Trough, western Japan, inferred from high-frequency seismic wave analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furumura, T.; Padhy, S.; Maeda, T.

    2012-12-01

    A detailed structure of the subducting Philippine Sea plate (PHP) along the Nankai trough in western Japan was studied by analyzing waveforms recorded at dense Hi-net stations in Japan. It is well recognized that the waveforms from intraplate earthquakes dominate in high-frequency (f >1 Hz) signals due to the waveguide effect of the subducting slab (Furumura and Kennett, 2005; 2008). This results in distorted pattern of intensity and peak ground acceleration (PGA) above the hypocenter with a substantial elongation of isoseismic contours correlated with the configuration of the isodepth contours of the subducting PHP beneath western Japan. A detailed analysis of the dense Hi-net waveform data from the intermediate-depth PHP event shows that the high-frequency S-wave signals suddenly disappear as the waves propagate the zone away from the Kii Channel to the boundary of Hyogo and Okayama prefectures and large S-to-P conversion occurs before the arrival of S-wave. Such anomalies do not occur for shallow and deep earthquakes occurring outside the PHP. These observations support the recent debate on the complexities of the configuration of the PHP subducting beneath western Japan such as that shown by Shiomi et al. (2008) based on receiver function images and the PHP-split model beneath the Kii channel shown by Ide et al.(2010) based on the analysis of comprehensive geophysical data. In order to explain the observations associated with sudden lateral change in the PHP structure, we conducted finite difference method (FDM) simulations of seismic wave propagation taking the detailed PHP model into account. It is confirmed that high-frequency guided wave energy decouple from waveguide where the shape of the PHP is suddenly deformed, which results in dramatic attenuation of high-frequency signals associating with large S-to-P conversions developed at sharp plate boundary. The present results also support the recently proposed complicated PHP-split model, however, further

  16. Gas hydrate identified in sand-rich inferred sedimentary section using downhole logging and seismic data in Shenhu area, South China Sea

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wang, Xiujuan; Lee, Myung W.; Collett, Timothy S.; Yang, Shengxiong; Guo, Yiqun; Wu, Shiguo

    2014-01-01

    Downhole wireline log (DWL) data was acquired from eight drill sites during China's first gas hydrate drilling expedition (GMGS-1) in 2007. Initial analyses of the acquired well log data suggested that there were no significant gas hydrate occurrences at Site SH4. However, the re-examination of the DWL data from Site SH4 indicated that there are two intervals of high resistivity, which could be indicative of gas hydrate. One interval of high resistivity at depth of 171–175 m below seafloor (mbsf) is associated with a high compressional- wave (P-wave) velocities and low gamma ray log values, which suggests the presence of gas hydrate in a potentially sand-rich (low clay content) sedimentary section. The second high resistivity interval at depth of 175–180 mbsf is associated with low P-wave velocities and low gamma values, which suggests the presence of free gas in a potentially sand-rich (low clay content) sedimentary section. Because the occurrence of free gas is much shallower than the expected from the regional depth of the bottom simulating reflector (BSR), the free gas could be from the dissociation of gas hydrate during drilling or there may be a local anomaly in the depth to the base of the gas hydrate stability zone. In order to determine whether the low P-wave velocity with high resistivity is caused by in-situ free gas or dissociated free gas from the gas hydrate, the surface seismic data were also used in this analysis. The log analysis incorporating the surface seismic data through the construction of synthetic seismograms using various models indicated the presence of free gas directly in contact with an overlying gas hydrate-bearing section. The occurrence of the anomalous base of gas hydrate stability at Site SH4 could be caused by a local heat flow conditions. This paper documents the first observation of gas hydrate in what is believed to be a sand-rich sediment in Shenhu area of the South China Sea.

  17. Influences of Local Sea-Surface Temperatures and Large-scale Dynamics on Monthly Precipitation Inferred from Two 10-year GCM-Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.; Zhou, Y.; Lau, W. K.-M.

    2007-01-01

    Two parallel sets of 10-year long: January 1, 1982 to December 31, 1991, simulations were made with the finite volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM) in which the model integrations were forced with prescribed sea-surface temperature fields (SSTs) available as two separate SST-datasets. One dataset contained naturally varying monthly SSTs for the chosen period, and the oth& had the 12-monthly mean SSTs for the same period. Plots of evaporation, precipitation, and atmosphere-column moisture convergence, binned by l C SST intervals show that except for the tropics, the precipitation is more strongly constrained by large-scale dynamics as opposed to local SST. Binning data by SST naturally provided an ensemble average of data contributed from disparate locations with same SST; such averages could be expected to mitigate all location related influences. However, the plots revealed: i) evaporation, vertical velocity, and precipitation are very robust and remarkably similar for each of the two simulations and even for the data from 1987-ENSO-year simulation; ii) while the evaporation increased monotonically with SST up to about 27 C, the precipitation did not; iii) precipitation correlated much better with the column vertical velocity as opposed to SST suggesting that the influence of dynamical circulation including non-local SSTs is stronger than local-SSTs. The precipitation fields were doubly binned with respect to SST and boundary-layer mass and/or moisture convergence. The analysis discerned the rate of change of precipitation with local SST as a sum of partial derivative of precipitation with local SST plus partial derivative of precipitation with boundary layer moisture convergence multiplied by the rate of change of boundary-layer moisture convergence with SST (see Eqn. 3 of Section 4.5). This analysis is mathematically rigorous as well as provides a quantitative measure of the influence of local SST on the local precipitation. The results were recast to

  18. The Role of Philippine Sea Plate to the Genesis of Quaternary Magmas of Northern Kyushu Island, Japan, Inferred from Along-Arc Geochemical Variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shibata, T.; Yoshikawa, M.; Itoh, J.; Ujike, O.; Miyoshi, M.; Takemura, K.

    2013-12-01

    geochemical data, including Sr, Nd, and Pb isotope ratios, were restricted to Kuju and Yufu-Tsurumi volcanoes (Kita et al., 2001; Sugimoto et al., 2007), and hence we present new geochemical and Sr-Nd-Pb isotope ratios of lavas from Himeshima and Futagoyama volcanoes and Nd-Pb isotope ratios of Aso volcano. The Sr/Y ratios of the arc lavas decrease from north to south along the volcanic front. Mixing relations in Sr-Nd-Pb isotope space suggest recycling of the subducted slab materials from the Philippine Sea Plate to the arc. The 87Sr/86Sr ratios decrease with increasing Sr/Y and SiO2, which argues against a genetic link of fractional crystallization between adakites and basaltic magmas. The observations further suggest that partial melting of the hot and young Shikoku Basin slab produces the high Sr/Y component visible in the arc magmas in the north, whereas dehydration of the older West Philippine Basin slab produces the low Sr/Y arc magmas in the south. References Hunter, 1998, Chemical Geology, 201: 19-36. Kita et al., 2001, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 111, 99-109. Mahony et al., 2011, Geological Society of America Bulletin, 123, 2201-2223. Sugimoto et al., 2007, Journal of Mineralogical and Petrological Sciences, 101: 270-275. Zellmer et al., 2012, Geology, 40: 487-490.

  19. Crustal structure and configuration of the subducting Philippine Sea plate beneath the Pacific coast industrial zone in Japan inferred from receiver function analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Igarashi, T.; Iidaka, T.; Sakai, S.; Hirata, N.

    2012-12-01

    We apply receiver function (RF) analyses to estimate the crustal structure and configuration of the subducting Philippine Sea (PHS) plate beneath the Pacific coast industrial zone stretching from Tokyo to Fukuoka in Japan. Destructive earthquakes often occurred at the plate interface of the PHS plate, and seismic activities increase after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw9.0) around the Tokyo metropolitan area. Investigation on the crustal structure is the key to understanding the stress concentration and strain accumulation process, and information on configuration of the subducting plate is important to mitigate future earthquake disasters. In this study, we searched for the best-correlated velocity structure model between an observed receiver function at each station and synthetic ones by using a grid search method. Synthetic RFs were calculated from many assumed one-dimensional velocity structures that consist of four layers with positive velocity steps. Observed receiver functions were stacked without considering back azimuth or epicentral distance. We further constructed the vertical cross-sections of depth-converted RF images transformed the lapse time of time series to depth by using the estimated structure models. Telemetric seismographic network data covered on the Japanese Islands including the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network, which constructed under the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area and maintained by Special Project for Reducing Vulnerability for Urban Mega Earthquake Disasters, are used. We selected events with magnitudes greater or equal to 5.0 and epicentral distance between 30 and 90 degrees based on USGS catalogues. As a result, we clarify spatial distributions of the crustal S-wave velocities. Estimated average one-dimensional S-wave velocity structure is approximately equal to the JMA2011 structural model although the velocity from the ground surface to 5 km in depth is slow. In particular

  20. Results of a multidisciplinary study in the Marmara Supersite, on-shore area: Büyükçekmece landslide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coccia, Stella; Bigarré, Pascal; Ergintav, Semih; Ozel, Oguz; Yalcinkaya, Esref; Ozalabey, Serdar; Bourdeau, Céline; Martino, Salvatore; Lenti, Luca; Zucca, Francesco; Moro, Marco

    2016-04-01

    The MARsite project (Nov 2012-Avril 2016), one of the three SUPERSITE concept FP7 projects, deals with the definition of new directions in seismic hazard assessment through focused earth observation in the Marmara Supersite. This project gathers different research groups in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed in the Sea of Marmara Region. This region is one of the most densely populated parts of Europe and rated at high seismic risk level since the 1999 Izmit and Duzce devastating earthquakes. The 6th Work Package of MARsite project offered a very valuable frame to undertake simultaneous and complementary scientific investigations and studies to get deeper insight in the seismic and rainfall landslide topic, ranging from methodology to hazard assessment tool. This package focused on two sub-regional areas of high interest. First, the Avcilar-Beylikdüzü peninsula, located westwards of Istanbul, is a highly urbanized concentrated landslide prone area, showing high susceptibility to both rainfalls while affected by very significant seismic site effects. Second, the off-shore entrance of the Izmit Gulf, close to the termination of the surface rupture of the 1999 earthquake, that shows an important slump mass facing the Istanbul coastline. For the on-shore area, after refining the landslide inventory of the peninsula, one of the nine inventoried rototranslational landslides was chosen as pilot site, the Büyükçekmece landslide. This landslide has a continuous activity and a composite mechanism (including several secondary sliding surfaces); it moves at low velocity and involves sandy and clayey deposits of a local Cenozoic Succession damaging several infrastructures, such as buildings and roads. Various geophysical campaigns were carried out and then a field temporary multi-parameter monitoring was set up, composed of GPS-RTK, two seismic probes, thermometer, rain-gauge, moisture, etc.. Hyperspectral and Dinsar imagery technologies were also deployed to

  1. Marmara University Medical Students’ Perception on Sexual Violence against Women and Induced Abortion in Turkey

    PubMed Central

    Lüleci, Nimet Emel; Kaya, Eda; Aslan, Ece; Şenkal, Ece Söylem; Çiçek, Zehra Nadide

    2016-01-01

    Background: Historically, sexual assault is a common issue in Turkey. As doctors are one of the steps to help sexually assaulted women, medical students should have basic knowledge of and sensitivity regarding this subject. Another common women’s public health issue is induced abortion. In countries where access to abortion is restricted, there is a tendency towards unhealthy abortion. Aims: The aims of this study are: (1) to determine the attitudes and opinions of Marmara University Medical Faculty students about sexual assault against women and induced abortion and (2) to propose an educational program for medical students about sexual assault and abortion. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Methods: The questionnaires were self-administered and the data were analyzed using SPSS v.15.0. First, the descriptive statistics were analyzed, followed by Chi-square for contingency tests assessing differences in attitudes toward sexual assault and induced abortion by factors such as gender and educational term. Differences were considered statistically significant at p<0.05. Results: About 89.6% of the participants (n=266) reported that they had never been sexually assaulted and about 11.5% of the women (n=19) had been sexually assaulted. There was no significant relationship between previous sexual assault and gender (p>0.05). Although there was no significant difference regarding the extent of punishment by victim’s status as a virgin, 21.3% (n=63) agreed that punishment should be more severe when the victim was a virgin. About 40.7% (n=120) agreed that the legal period of abortion in Turkey (10 weeks) should be longer. The majority (86.1%, n=255) agreed that legally prohibiting abortions causes an increase in unhealthy abortions. Conclusion: An educational program on these issues should be developed for medical students. PMID:27403386

  2. Temperature thresholds and degree-day model for Marmara gulosa (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae).

    PubMed

    O'Neal, M J; Headrick, D H; Montez, Gregory H; Grafton-Cardwell, E E

    2011-08-01

    The developmental thresholds for Marmara gulosa Guillén & Davis (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae) were investigated in the laboratory by using 17, 21, 25, 29, and 33 degrees C. The lowest mortality occurred in cohorts exposed to 25 and 29 degrees C. Other temperatures caused >10% mortality primarily in egg and first and second instar sap-feeding larvae. Linear regression analysis approximated the lower developmental threshold at 12.2 degrees C. High mortality and slow developmental rate at 33 degrees C indicate the upper developmental threshold is near this temperature. The degree-day (DD) model indicated that a generation requires an accumulation of 322 DD for development from egg to adult emergence. Average daily temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley could produce up to seven generations of M. gulosa per year. Field studies documented two, five, and three overlapping generations of M. gulosa in walnuts (Juglans regia L.; Juglandaceae), pummelos (Citrus maxima (Burm.) Merr.; Rutaceae), and oranges (Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck; Rutaceae), for a total of seven observed peelminer generations. Degree-day units between generations averaged 375 DD for larvae infesting walnut twigs; however, availability of green wood probably affected timing of infestations. Degree-day units between larval generations averaged 322 for pummelos and 309 for oranges, confirming the laboratory estimation. First infestation of citrus occurred in June in pummelo fruit and August in orange fruit when fruit neared 60 mm in diameter. Fruit size and degree-day units could be used as management tools to more precisely time insecticide treatments to target the egg stage and prevent rind damage to citrus. Degree-day units also could be used to more precisely time natural enemy releases to target larval instars that are preferred for oviposition.

  3. Seismically induced pressure transients at geothermal reservoirs in the eastern Marmara region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woith, Heiko; Wang, Rongjiang; Caka, Deniz; Irmak, T. Serkan; Tunc, Berna; Luehr, Birger-G.; Baris, Serif

    2014-05-01

    The potential role of fluids in processes related to the triggering of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions is frequently emphasized. Here, we focus on the response of hydrogeological systems to earthquakes, specifically on seismically induced pore-pressure variations in geothermal areas located in the eastern Marmara region. At a 500 m deep artesian geothermal well the pressure is continuously being monitored at a sampling rate of 100 Hz. A seismometer is co-located close to the well-head and the data are recorded by the same digitizer. Hydro-seismograms were recorded in relation to local and distant earthquakes. The ML=5.2 Manyas earthquake which occurred on 20 October 2006 at a distance of 77 km led to a dynamic response of the pore pressure of the order of 4 mbar triggered upon the arrival of the S-wave. Four days later, the ML=5.2 Gemlik earthquake at a distance of 20 km led to a dynamic pore pressure response of the order of 15 mbar triggered upon the arrival of the P-wave. In both cases the peak amplitude of the ground velocity was about 2 mm/s. Weak oscillations of the pore pressure were observed during the passage of surface waves generated by remote earthquakes at distances of up to 9,000 km. Additionally to the dynamic response, a small persistent pressure increase of 1 and 2 mbar had been recorded after both local earthquakes. According to preliminary results, the observed pressure increase is opposite to the static pressure decrease predicted by Okada's model. At the present stage we conclude that the response of the Armutlu geothermal system to earthquakes is likely caused by a dynamic interaction of passing seismic waves (P-, S-, and surface waves) with the fluid reservoir in case a threshold of the ground shaking is exceeded.

  4. Particulate and dissolved primary production along a pronounced hydrographic and trophic gradient (Turkish Straits System-NE Aegean Sea)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lagaria, A.; Psarra, S.; Gogou, A.; Tuğrul, S.; Christaki, U.

    2013-06-01

    The rates of particulate (PPp) and dissolved primary production (PPd) were estimated along a trajectory of variable environmental regimes formed in a narrow shelf area, following the course of Black Sea water masses (BSW) passing through the Turkish Straits System (TSS) into the NE Aegean Sea (BS-AS outflow). Seven stations in total were sampled, covering a transect from the eastern edge of the Marmara Sea basin to the NE Aegean Sea, during two consecutive cruises performed in October 2008 within the framework of the EU SESAME project. Along the BS-AS outflow, depth-integrated over the surface BSW layer PPp decreased considerably from 91 to < 16 mg C m- 2 h- 1 whereas PPd increased from 3 to 10 mg C m- 2 h- 1. As a consequence, the relative importance of PPd over total production (percentage extracellular release, PER) increased from 6% (± 3% sd) in the Marmara Sea to 37% (± 4% sd) in the NE Aegean Sea. Total chlorophyll a concentration gradually decreased and phytoplankton community size-structure was modified, with pico-phytoplankton, that originally represented 35% (± 9% sd) in the Marmara Sea, gradually becoming dominant in the NE Aegean (77% ± 2% sd), substituting large nano- and micro-phytoplankton cells (> 5 μm). This study showed that PER increased along a gradient from mesotrophy to oligotrophy, probably due to nutrient deficiency constraining phytoplankton growth and was closely related to phytoplankton size-structure. In the oligotrophic NE Aegean Sea, phytoplankton exudation was a significant source of dissolved organic carbon for heterotrophic prokaryotes.

  5. Seismic parameters re-determined from historical seismograms of 1935-Erdek-Marmara Island and 1963-Çınarcık Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Başarır Baştürk, Nilay; Özel, Nurcan Meral; Caciagli, Marco

    2016-09-01

    In this study, the original seismograms of the 1935-Erdek-Marmara Island and 1963-Çınarcık Earthquakes, recorded at local and regional distances, were vectorized. The epicentral locations have been calculated using available readings from original records and also ISS and seismic station bulletins for 04.01.1935-14:41 and 16:20 Marmara Island-Erdek Earthquakes and 18.09.1963-16:58 Çınarcık Earthquake. The epicenter determinations show that the first event in 04.01.1935 was located at 40.72N-27.72E, while the second one occurred at 40.61N-27.43E, indicating that both were located near the Marmara Island. Another finding is that the 1963 event was located at 40.80N-29.18E, near the Princes' Island fault. Furthermore, moment tensor inversion method was applied on these earthquakes by using original seismograms, which provided an opportunity to illuminate the seismotectonic features of Marmara Region based on the retrieved fault mechanism solutions. For the first time, the fault mechanisms for 04.01.1935-14:41 and 16:20 Earthquakes were determined using moment tensor inversion from the original seismic waveforms. Likewise, the result obtained for the fault mechanism of 1963 Çınarcık Earthquake showed normal fault mechanism with much shallower depth than estimated before. Our preferred solutions showed that the fault mechanisms for the three events are normal faults and coincide with the seismotectonic structure of the Marmara Region.

  6. Monitoring small land subsidence phenomena in the Marmara see region by new SAR generation satellite ESA Sentinel 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cantone, Alessio; Riccardi, Paolo; Pasquali, Paolo; Defilippi, Marco; Peternier, Achille

    2015-04-01

    The Marmara see region is a large and dense urbanized area affected by tectonics deformations due to the presence of the underlying North Anatolia Fault. This area is affected by strong seismic phenomena (Izmith and Duzce earthquake), and by landslide and small surface deformation. The new generation ESA SAR satellites Copernicus Sentinel-1 system TOPS (Terrain Observation with Progressive Scans in azimuth) permit a short acquisition repetition cycle, an extreme large coverage, a high spatial resolution to respect the covered area and a small baseline separation. All of those characteristics suggest an intensive exploitation of these data through the usage of the interferometry technology and in particular the stacking interferometry for the small terrain displacement monitoring. The Sentinel-1 mission is made up of a constellation of two satellites (A and B units) each carrying a C-band SAR sensor. The objective of the S-1 mission is to acquire systematically with a 12-day repeat orbit cycle for each satellite with a small orbital baselines, characteristics particularly suited for interferometry application. In the near future, when both satellites will be active, there will be an acquisition every 6 days, covering the whole area. The first TOPSAR interferogram has been successfully produced, and the SARScape® stacking processing chains (SBAS and PSI) have been update to support this new sensor. The SBAS (Small Baseline) technique seems to be the best candidate for this application relatively to the morphology and large extension of Marmara region. Moreover the new incremental SBAS will permit a velocity map (at about 25 meters spatial resolution) estimation at near real time at each Sentinel-1 acquisition. We are collecting imaging over the Marmara since October 2014 within the framework of European FP7 Marsite project. In February-March 2015 we will have enough acquisition to perform the first SBAS TOPSAR monitoring of this area. The SBAS processing chain has

  7. Evaluation of seismic hazard in Marmara region based on the new datasets developed in the EU-MARSITE Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sesetyan, Karin; Akinci, Aybige; Betül Demircioglu, Mine

    2016-04-01

    Several studies with various degrees of sophistication have been conducted for the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard in the Marmara Region (e.g. Atakan et al., 2002; Erdik et al., 2004; Kalkan et al., 2008; Gülerce and Ocak, 2013),. The common point of these studies was that they have all addressed the hazard in the region in terms of both time-independent probabilistic (simple Poissonian) and time-dependent probabilistic (renewal) models. This tendency was governed by the following considerations: 1) the region has experienced a considerable number of large magnitude events in the history, which have also shown some periodicity; 2) the existing seismic gap and the post-1999 earthquake stress transfer at the western portion of the 1000km-long NAFZ indicates a high probability of having a M>7 event in the near future close to the city of Istanbul; 3)the seismic history of the region was well documented and studied and there have been, especially in the aftermath of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce events, several geological investigations both on-shore and off-shore aiming to obtain a regional fault model as complete as possible, which were reflected in the fault segmentation models of the PSHA studies. Task 5.5. of the MARSITE Project aimed at a reassessment of the probabilistic seismic hazard of the Marmara region in the light of the new datasets compiled in the project. The improvement of the knowledge on the seismotectonic regime of the Marmara region paved the path for the development of alternative source models for the improvement of the existing probabilistic seismic hazard maps. In this connection, the most recent findings and outputs of different work packages of the project, in terms of seismicity, fault segmentation and slip rate data are utilized. A revised fault segementation model and associated Poisson and renewal recurrence models as well as recently emerged global and regional ground motion prediction equations are used to assessed the seismic

  8. Holocene Climatic Optimum centennial-scale paleoceanography in the NE Aegean (Mediterranean Sea)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Triantaphyllou, Maria V.; Gogou, Alexandra; Dimiza, Margarita D.; Kostopoulou, Sofia; Parinos, Constantine; Roussakis, Grigoris; Geraga, Maria; Bouloubassi, Ioanna; Fleitmann, Dominik; Zervakis, Vassilis; Velaoras, Dimitris; Diamantopoulou, Antonia; Sampatakaki, Angeliki; Lykousis, Vassilis

    2016-02-01

    Combined micropaleontological and geochemical analyses of the high-sedimentation gravity core M-4G provided new centennial-scale paleoceanographic data for sapropel S1 deposition in the NE Aegean Sea during the Holocene Climatic Optimum. Sapropel layer S1a (10.2-8.0 ka) was deposited in dysoxic to oxic bottom waters characterized by a high abundance of benthic foraminiferal species tolerating surface sediment and/or pore water oxygen depletion (e.g., Chilostomella mediterranensis, Globobulimina affinis), and the presence of Uvigerina mediterranea, which thrives in oxic mesotrophic-eutrophic environments. Preservation of organic matter (OM) is inferred based on high organic carbon as well as loliolide and isololiolide contents, while the biomarker record and the abundances of eutrophic planktonic foraminifera document enhanced productivity. High inputs of terrigenous OM are attributed to north Aegean borderland riverine inputs. Both alkenone-based sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and δO18 G. bulloides records indicate cooling at 8.2 ka (S1a) and ~7.8 ka (S1 interruption). Sapropelic layer S1b (7.7-6.4 ka) is characterized by rather oxic conditions; abundances of foraminiferal species tolerant to oxygen depletion are very low compared with the U. mediterranea rise. Strongly fluctuating SSTs demonstrate repeated cooling and associated dense water formation, with a major event at 7.4 ka followed by cold spells at 7.0, 6.8, and 6.5 ka. The prominent rise of the carbon preference index within the S1b layer indicates the delivery of less degraded terrestrial OM. The increase of algal biomarkers, labile OM-feeding foraminifera and eutrophic planktonic species pinpoints an enhanced in situ marine productivity, promoted by more efficient vertical convection due to repeated cold events. The associated contributions of labile marine OM along with fresher terrestrial OM inputs after ~7.7 ka imply sources alternative/additional to the north Aegean riverine borderland sources for

  9. Inference in `poor` languages

    SciTech Connect

    Petrov, S.

    1996-10-01

    Languages with a solvable implication problem but without complete and consistent systems of inference rules (`poor` languages) are considered. The problem of existence of finite complete and consistent inference rule system for a ``poor`` language is stated independently of the language or rules syntax. Several properties of the problem arc proved. An application of results to the language of join dependencies is given.

  10. Stepwise transition from deglacial/Early Holocene to modern-like conditions in the eastern Fram Strait, sub-Arctic north, inferred from planktic foraminifer fauna and sea surface temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, K.; Spielhagen, R. F.; Kandiano, E.; Hass, H. C.

    2012-04-01

    The heat content of the Arctic Ocean is mainly controlled by the inflow of north-heading warm and saline Atlantic Water through eastern Fram Strait. The eastern Fram Strait is therefore ice-free all year, opposite to its perennially ice-covered western part where large amounts of Arctic sea ice are exported year-round to the Nordic Seas. The Early and Mid-Holocene phases (ca 12 to 5 cal ka BP) in the (sub-)Arctic have been especially marked not only by high summer insolation but also by rising sea level and the final disintegration of large ice sheets that had been established during the preceding glacial phase. Two sediment cores with multidecadal resolution from the Western Svalbard margin have been investigated for its planktic foraminiferal distribution, sea surface temperatures, planktic and benthic stable isotope ratios, and lithological parameters to derive information on the Holocene variability of the heat transport to the Arctic Ocean and related fluctuations of the marginal ice zone in the eastern Fram Strait. Planktic foraminifer fauna and a summer sea surface temperature reconstruction based on the modern analogue technique imply a stepwise transition from deglacial/Early Holocene to modern-like conditions in the eastern Fram Strait. Repeated short-term advances of the sea ice margin accompanied the generally strong heat transport to the Arctic Ocean during the Early to Mid-Holocene. Consistent with the decreasing solar insolation, cooler (sub-)surface conditions established after ca 5 cal ka BP most likely related to both a weakening of the Atlantic Water inflow and strong export of Arctic sea ice through Fram Strait. The Late Holocene Neoglacial phase was characterized by high contents of ice-rafted material and dominance of the cold water-indicating planktic foraminifer species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma. Cool Late Holocene conditions are reversed by a strong warming event likely caused by a significant strengthening of Atlantic heat advection to

  11. Monitor Land Degradation Phenomena Through Landscape Metrics and NDVI: Gordes, Kavacik, Ilicak, Kumcay and Marmara Lake Basins (Turkey)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tagil, Sermin

    Rapid land use/cover change (LULC), land degradation and landscape fragmentation are occurring in Turkey, as a result of demographic pressure, agricultural expansion, government policies and environmental factors such as drought. This study analyzed the dynamics of LULC and land degradation as revealed in landscape fragmentation in the Gordes, Kavacik, Ilicak, Kumcay and Marmara Lake basins based on Landsat data for 1975 and 2000. A hybrid supervised/unsupervised classification approach coupled with GIS analyses was employed to generate LULC maps. Various class-level Landscape Pattern Metrics (LPMs) were calculated using FRAGSTATS, in order to analyze landscape fragmentation. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been prepared from the satellite data to understand the vigour and density of vegetation. The results indicated that the study area had a decrease in NDVI values, which meant a decrease in the vegetation cover, land degradation and the soil moisture during the study period. Consequently, the landscape became more highly fragmented. This suggests that anthropogenic activities driven by agricultural expansion were the main causes of landscape fragmentation, leading to landscape degradation in the study area. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of the Remote Sensing (RS) and the Geographical Information System (GIS) in detection, assessing, mapping, monitoring and generating essential quantitative information on the land degradation.

  12. Spatial patterns of biodiversity in the Black Sea: An assessment using benthic polychaetes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Surugiu, Victor; Revkov, Nikolai; Todorova, Valentina; Papageorgiou, Nafsika; Valavanis, Vasilis; Arvanitidis, Christos

    2010-06-01

    The current study broadens the biodiversity information available for the Black Sea and neighbouring regions and improves our knowledge about the polychaete biogeographic patterns to be discerned in them. There appears to be a well-defined zoogeocline from the Marmara Sea and Bosphorus Strait to the inner parts of the region (Azov Sea), depicted both as a multivariate pattern and in terms of species (or taxa) numbers. The emergent multivariate pattern complies, to a certain extent, with Jakubova's (1935) views: three main sectors can be defined in the basin: (a) Prebosphoric, (b) the Black Sea and, (c) the Azov Sea, whereas the Bosphorus Strait and Marmara Sea show less faunal affinities with the afore-mentioned sectors. Patterns derived both from the cosmopolitan and Atlanto-Mediterranean species closely follow the one coming from the polychaete species and genera inventories. As a general trend, species numbers decrease along with the decrease in salinity towards the inner parts of the region. The trend is homologous to that seen in the benthic invertebrate inventories of all the major European semi-enclosed regional seas. Salinity and food availability appear to be the dominant abiotic factors correlated, though weakly, with the various patterns deriving from the taxonomic/zoogeographic categories. With the exception of the Anatolia, polychaete inventories from all sectors appear to be random samples of the total inventory of the region, in terms of taxonomic distinctness values. Therefore, these sectoral inventories can be used for future biodiversity/environmental impact assessment studies. A massive invasion of Mediterranean species after the opening of the Black Sea, in the lower Quaternary period, appears to be the likely biogeographic mechanism through which the old Sarmatic fauna was almost completely replaced by species of marine origin.

  13. Analysis of past earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault in the Marmara Region (Turkey): Implications for the spatial distribution for surface ruptures in the last 1000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zabcı, Cengiz; Altunel, Erhan; Akyüz, H. Serdar

    2016-04-01

    The North Anatolian Fault (NAF), one of the major continental strike-slip faults of the World, extends for about 1500 km between the Karlıova triple junction to the east and the North Aegean Trough to the west. This tectonic structure showed a remarkable seismic activity between 1939 and 1999, when the westward migrating earthquake sequence created surface ruptures of more than 1000 km, leaving unbroken only the Yedisu Segment to the east, and the Marmara Segment to the west. The rich historical records include many past earthquakes that destroyed ancient settlements along the NAF. However, there are ambiguities for the spatial distribution of the surface ruptures of these palaeoevents, especially in the Marmara Region, where the fault bifurcates into two branches, the more active northern and the less active southern strands. In order to understand the spatial distribution of these historical earthquakes, we revised the available palaeoseismological studies, including trenches for the inland, and results of core analyses for the offshore segments, in the framework of the EU project "MARsite: New directions in seismic hazard assessment through focused Earth observation in the Marmara Supersite". First, we compiled a dataset of more than 50 trench and 20 coring sites, which are mostly located along the northern strand of the NAF. Then, all faults are simplified to show only the major geometric elements such as their generalized strikes and lengths. The integration of these temporal and spatial data enabled us to model the relationship between the individual palaeoseismic studies. Our preliminary results show that the migrating earthquake sequence is not characteristic only for the 20th century, but it also occurred in the past. Moreover, limited number of studies, revealing the co-seismic slip of palaeoevents, suggest 'non-characteristic behaviour' of NAF, especially at structurally complex segments.

  14. Evolution and fluxes of 137Cs in the Black Sea/Turkish Straits System/North Aegean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delfanti, R.; Özsoy, E.; Kaberi, H.; Schirone, A.; Salvi, S.; Conte, F.; Tsabaris, C.; Papucci, C.

    2014-07-01

    The vertical profiles of 137Cs were determined in the North Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas, to assess inventories and fluxes of the radionuclide in these basins. The inventory of 137Cs in the Western Black Sea integrated from the surface down to 400 m water depth is 3.4 ± 0.1 kBq m- 2, which is surprisingly close to the amount determined in 1988, decay corrected to 2007 (2.9 ± 0.1 kBq m- 2). On the other hand, based on the comparison of profiles roughly 20 years apart, it is estimated that about 1 kBq m- 2 has been transferred from above the halocline to depths below the halocline, emphasizing the effective redistribution of tracers within the same period. We estimate that about 12 TBq y- 1 of 137Cs presently leaves the Black Sea with the upper layer flow through the Bosphorus and only 2 TBq y- 1 is returned with the lower layer inflow of Mediterranean water from the Marmara Sea. Accounting for river fluxes, estimated on the order of 2 TBq y- 1 few years after the Chernobyl accident, and possibly decreased by now, we can thus estimate a net rate of loss of about 8-10 TBq y- 1. Investigating the effective redistribution in the upper water column, the supply by the inflowing Mediterranean water alone does not explain the increase of 137Cs concentration and inventory at intermediate depths in the Western Black Sea. The most important mechanism transferring 137Cs and dissolved contaminants from the surface water to the sub-pycnocline layer appears to be the turbulent entrainment of a larger quantity of Black Sea water into the inflowing plume of Mediterranean water through mixing processes on the southwestern shelf and continental slope following its exit from the Bosphorus. This process produces an extra export of some10 TBq y- 1 of 137Cs from the surface to the sub-pycnocline depths of the Black Sea, a quantity comparable in magnitude to the total export out from the basin. It is the entrainment flux resulting from the mixing, and the further advection and

  15. Source mechanism of the 2014 Aegean Sea earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakano, Masaru

    2016-04-01

    Rapid determination of centroid moment tensor (CMT) of earthquakes, namely the source centroid location, focal mechanism, and magnitude is important for early disaster responses and issuing Tsunami warnings. In order to evaluate capability of Turkey seismic network for rapid determinations of CMT, I investigate the source mechanism of the 2014 Aegean Sea earthquake (Mw 6.9). Although this event occur out of Turkey seismic network, I obtained stable CMT solution. The CMT solution of this earthquake represents a strike-slip fault, consistent with the geometry of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), and the source-time function indicates that this event comprised several distinct subevents. Each subevent is considered to have ruptured a different fault segment. This observation indicates the existence of a mechanical barrier, namely a NAF segment boundary, at the hypocenter. I also determined CMT solutions of background seismicity. CMT solutions of background seismicity beneath the Aegean Sea represent strike-slip or normal faulting along the NAF or its branch faults. The tensional axes of these events are oriented northeast-southwest, indicating a transtensional tectonic regime. Beneath the Sea of Marmara, the CMT solutions represent mostly strike-slip faulting, consistent with the motion of the NAF, but we identified a normal fault event with a tensional axis parallel to the strike of the NAF. This mechanism indicates that a pull-apart basin, marking a segment boundary of the NAF, is developing there. Because ruptures of a fault system and large earthquake magnitudes are strongly controlled by the fault system geometry and fault length, mapping fault segments along NAF can help to improve the accuracy of scenarios developed for future disastrous earthquakes in the Marmara region.

  16. The Bayes Inference Engine

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, K.M.; Cunningham, G.S.

    1996-04-01

    The authors are developing a computer application, called the Bayes Inference Engine, to provide the means to make inferences about models of physical reality within a Bayesian framework. The construction of complex nonlinear models is achieved by a fully object-oriented design. The models are represented by a data-flow diagram that may be manipulated by the analyst through a graphical programming environment. Maximum a posteriori solutions are achieved using a general, gradient-based optimization algorithm. The application incorporates a new technique of estimating and visualizing the uncertainties in specific aspects of the model.

  17. Subsidence and conversion of the Dead Sea basin to an inland erosion base level in the early middle Miocene as inferred from geomorphological analysis of its ancient western fluvial outlet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bar, Oded; Zilberman, Ezra

    2016-05-01

    The first major subsidence of the Dead Sea pull-apart basin (DSB) is evidenced by the thick Hufeira Member of the terrestrial Hazeva Formation. The age of the Hufeira Member and the conversion of the DSB to an inland erosion base level are not well constrained. For this purpose we studied the effect of the evolving basin on its ancient fluvial outlet to the Arad-Be'er Sheva Valley (ABSV), which served as a Miocene corridor between the embryonic DSB region in the east and the Mediterranean Sea in the west. We mapped and analyzed the morphostratigraphy of four series of rock-cut erosion surfaces (from top to bottom: the Barir, Kuseifa, Ar'ara, and Shemen surfaces). They are manifested in the east as fluvial erosion surfaces, capped by conglomerates, passing laterally westward to marine wave-cut surfaces, capped by a shallow marine limestone of the early middle Miocene Ziqlag Formation. The age of these surfaces is constrained to the early middle Miocene (Langhian) based on morphostratigraphy correlation with the Ziqlag Formation. Paleogeographic reconstruction of the two higher and older surfaces reveals transverse valleys, which drained the DSB region and crossed the present route of the regional water divide. These transverse valleys were presumably the western outlets to the Mediterranean Sea of the newly subsiding basin. Precambrian components in the assemblage of the clasts that cover the Kuseifa surface were not found in the Hufeira Member and thus reflect an ongoing post-Hufeira exumation of the DSB drainage basin. Hence, this early middle Miocene surface postdates the Hufeira Member, assigning an age of late early Miocene to the first major subsidence of the DSB. The two lower and younger surfaces represent local drainage systems confined to the ABSV. This transition from regional to local drainage system marks the establishment of the present regional water divide and the conversion of the DSB to an inland erosion base level during the early middle Miocene.

  18. Towards Context Sensitive Information Inference.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Song, D.; Bruza, P. D.

    2003-01-01

    Discusses information inference from a psychologistic stance and proposes an information inference mechanism that makes inferences via computations of information flow through an approximation of a conceptual space. Highlights include cognitive economics of information processing; context sensitivity; and query models for information retrieval.…

  19. Multimodel inference and adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rehme, S.E.; Powell, L.A.; Allen, C.R.

    2011-01-01

    Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

  20. Visual Inference Programming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, Kevin; Timucin, Dogan; Rabbette, Maura; Curry, Charles; Allan, Mark; Lvov, Nikolay; Clanton, Sam; Pilewskie, Peter

    2002-01-01

    The goal of visual inference programming is to develop a software framework data analysis and to provide machine learning algorithms for inter-active data exploration and visualization. The topics include: 1) Intelligent Data Understanding (IDU) framework; 2) Challenge problems; 3) What's new here; 4) Framework features; 5) Wiring diagram; 6) Generated script; 7) Results of script; 8) Initial algorithms; 9) Independent Component Analysis for instrument diagnosis; 10) Output sensory mapping virtual joystick; 11) Output sensory mapping typing; 12) Closed-loop feedback mu-rhythm control; 13) Closed-loop training; 14) Data sources; and 15) Algorithms. This paper is in viewgraph form.

  1. Graphical inference for Infovis.

    PubMed

    Wickham, Hadley; Cook, Dianne; Hofmann, Heike; Buja, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    How do we know if what we see is really there? When visualizing data, how do we avoid falling into the trap of apophenia where we see patterns in random noise? Traditionally, infovis has been concerned with discovering new relationships, and statistics with preventing spurious relationships from being reported. We pull these opposing poles closer with two new techniques for rigorous statistical inference of visual discoveries. The "Rorschach" helps the analyst calibrate their understanding of uncertainty and "line-up" provides a protocol for assessing the significance of visual discoveries, protecting against the discovery of spurious structure.

  2. Teaching of the subject "density difference caused by salinity", one of the reasons that plays role in the occurrence of currents in straits, seas and oceans by the use of a teaching material

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gumussoy, Verim

    2015-04-01

    Large masses of moving water in seas and oceans are called currents. Root causes of currents are steady winds that occur due to the global atmospheric system and the density differences caused by different heat and salinity levels of water masses. Different feeding and evaporation characteristics of seas and oceans result in salinity and density levels. As a result, subsurface currents occur in straits where seas with different salinity and density levels meet and in the nearby seas. The Bosporus in Istanbul where I live and the school I am working at is has these subsurface currents. In the Black Sea where the rivers the Danube, Dnieper, Don, Yesilirmak, Kizilirmak and Sakarya flow into and the evaporation level is less due to the latitude effect, salinity level is less compared to Marmara and Aegean Seas. As Marmara Sea has higher salt amount than Black Sea, there is a great density difference between these two seas. Marmara Sea has a higher concentration of salt and therefore a higher density than Black Sea. And this leads to occurrence of subsurface currents in the Bosporus. I get my students to carry out a small demonstration to help them understand the occurrence of ocean currents and currents in the seas and the Bosporus by the use of a material. We need very simple materials to carry out this demonstration. These are an aquarium, a bowl, water, salt, dye and a mixer. The demonstration is carried out as follows: we put water, salt and dye in the bowl and mix it well. The salt will increase the density of the water and the dye will help distinguish the salty water. Then we put tap water half way to the aquarium and pour the mixture in the bowl to the aquarium slowly. As a result, the colored salty water sinks down due to its higher density, setting an example of a subsurface current. Natural events occur in very long periods by great dynamic systems, making understanding of them difficult. It is important to use different kinds of materials that address to

  3. [Genetic Differentiation of Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus nerka from Kamchatka River Basin and the Lake-River Systems of the West Coast of the Bering Sea as Inferred from Data on Single Nucleotide Polymorphism].

    PubMed

    Khrustaleva, A M; Klovach, N V; Vedischeva, E V; Seeb, J E

    2015-10-01

    The variability of 45 single nucleotide polymorphism loci (SNP) was studied in sockeye salmon from the Kamchatka River basin and four lake-river systems of the west coast of the Bering Sea. Based on the genetic differentiation estimates for the largest sockeye salmon populations of Eastern Kamchatka and Chukotka, the examined samples were combined into two regional groups represented by the population of the Kamchatka River drainage, which included numerous local subpopulations and seasonal races, and the northern population grouping from the rivers of Olutorsko-Navarinsky raion, wherein the sockeye salmon from Maynypilginskaya Lake-River system was relatively isolated. Considerable divergence was observed between the island (Sarannoe Lake, Bering Island) and continental populations. Genetic heterogeneity was revealed and groups of early- and late-maturing individuals were isolated in the sample of late-run sockeye salmon from Kamchatka River. In Apuka River, subdivision of the spawning run into two genetically distinct spatial and temporal groupings was also observed. The results suggest that the differentiation of sockeye salmon samples by single nucleotide substitution frequencies was largely due to differences in the direction and strength of local selection at some loci in the population complexes and intrapopulation groupings from the examined river basins of Eastern Kamchatka, Chukotka, and Commander Islands. PMID:27169229

  4. Circular inferences in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Jardri, Renaud; Denève, Sophie

    2013-11-01

    A considerable number of recent experimental and computational studies suggest that subtle impairments of excitatory to inhibitory balance or regulation are involved in many neurological and psychiatric conditions. The current paper aims to relate, specifically and quantitatively, excitatory to inhibitory imbalance with psychotic symptoms in schizophrenia. Considering that the brain constructs hierarchical causal models of the external world, we show that the failure to maintain the excitatory to inhibitory balance results in hallucinations as well as in the formation and subsequent consolidation of delusional beliefs. Indeed, the consequence of excitatory to inhibitory imbalance in a hierarchical neural network is equated to a pathological form of causal inference called 'circular belief propagation'. In circular belief propagation, bottom-up sensory information and top-down predictions are reverberated, i.e. prior beliefs are misinterpreted as sensory observations and vice versa. As a result, these predictions are counted multiple times. Circular inference explains the emergence of erroneous percepts, the patient's overconfidence when facing probabilistic choices, the learning of 'unshakable' causal relationships between unrelated events and a paradoxical immunity to perceptual illusions, which are all known to be associated with schizophrenia. PMID:24065721

  5. Inferring horizontal gene transfer.

    PubMed

    Ravenhall, Matt; Škunca, Nives; Lassalle, Florent; Dessimoz, Christophe

    2015-05-01

    Horizontal or Lateral Gene Transfer (HGT or LGT) is the transmission of portions of genomic DNA between organisms through a process decoupled from vertical inheritance. In the presence of HGT events, different fragments of the genome are the result of different evolutionary histories. This can therefore complicate the investigations of evolutionary relatedness of lineages and species. Also, as HGT can bring into genomes radically different genotypes from distant lineages, or even new genes bearing new functions, it is a major source of phenotypic innovation and a mechanism of niche adaptation. For example, of particular relevance to human health is the lateral transfer of antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity determinants, leading to the emergence of pathogenic lineages. Computational identification of HGT events relies upon the investigation of sequence composition or evolutionary history of genes. Sequence composition-based ("parametric") methods search for deviations from the genomic average, whereas evolutionary history-based ("phylogenetic") approaches identify genes whose evolutionary history significantly differs from that of the host species. The evaluation and benchmarking of HGT inference methods typically rely upon simulated genomes, for which the true history is known. On real data, different methods tend to infer different HGT events, and as a result it can be difficult to ascertain all but simple and clear-cut HGT events. PMID:26020646

  6. Moment inference from tomograms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Day-Lewis, F. D.; Chen, Y.; Singha, K.

    2007-01-01

    Time-lapse geophysical tomography can provide valuable qualitative insights into hydrologic transport phenomena associated with aquifer dynamics, tracer experiments, and engineered remediation. Increasingly, tomograms are used to infer the spatial and/or temporal moments of solute plumes; these moments provide quantitative information about transport processes (e.g., advection, dispersion, and rate-limited mass transfer) and controlling parameters (e.g., permeability, dispersivity, and rate coefficients). The reliability of moments calculated from tomograms is, however, poorly understood because classic approaches to image appraisal (e.g., the model resolution matrix) are not directly applicable to moment inference. Here, we present a semi-analytical approach to construct a moment resolution matrix based on (1) the classic model resolution matrix and (2) image reconstruction from orthogonal moments. Numerical results for radar and electrical-resistivity imaging of solute plumes demonstrate that moment values calculated from tomograms depend strongly on plume location within the tomogram, survey geometry, regularization criteria, and measurement error. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. Circular inferences in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Jardri, Renaud; Denève, Sophie

    2013-11-01

    A considerable number of recent experimental and computational studies suggest that subtle impairments of excitatory to inhibitory balance or regulation are involved in many neurological and psychiatric conditions. The current paper aims to relate, specifically and quantitatively, excitatory to inhibitory imbalance with psychotic symptoms in schizophrenia. Considering that the brain constructs hierarchical causal models of the external world, we show that the failure to maintain the excitatory to inhibitory balance results in hallucinations as well as in the formation and subsequent consolidation of delusional beliefs. Indeed, the consequence of excitatory to inhibitory imbalance in a hierarchical neural network is equated to a pathological form of causal inference called 'circular belief propagation'. In circular belief propagation, bottom-up sensory information and top-down predictions are reverberated, i.e. prior beliefs are misinterpreted as sensory observations and vice versa. As a result, these predictions are counted multiple times. Circular inference explains the emergence of erroneous percepts, the patient's overconfidence when facing probabilistic choices, the learning of 'unshakable' causal relationships between unrelated events and a paradoxical immunity to perceptual illusions, which are all known to be associated with schizophrenia.

  8. Inferring Horizontal Gene Transfer

    PubMed Central

    Lassalle, Florent; Dessimoz, Christophe

    2015-01-01

    Horizontal or Lateral Gene Transfer (HGT or LGT) is the transmission of portions of genomic DNA between organisms through a process decoupled from vertical inheritance. In the presence of HGT events, different fragments of the genome are the result of different evolutionary histories. This can therefore complicate the investigations of evolutionary relatedness of lineages and species. Also, as HGT can bring into genomes radically different genotypes from distant lineages, or even new genes bearing new functions, it is a major source of phenotypic innovation and a mechanism of niche adaptation. For example, of particular relevance to human health is the lateral transfer of antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity determinants, leading to the emergence of pathogenic lineages [1]. Computational identification of HGT events relies upon the investigation of sequence composition or evolutionary history of genes. Sequence composition-based ("parametric") methods search for deviations from the genomic average, whereas evolutionary history-based ("phylogenetic") approaches identify genes whose evolutionary history significantly differs from that of the host species. The evaluation and benchmarking of HGT inference methods typically rely upon simulated genomes, for which the true history is known. On real data, different methods tend to infer different HGT events, and as a result it can be difficult to ascertain all but simple and clear-cut HGT events. PMID:26020646

  9. Application of time-independent and time-dependent occurrence models on the seismic hazard estimations in the Marmara region, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murru, M.; Akinci, A.; Console, R.; Falcone, G.; Pucci, S.

    2014-12-01

    We show the effect of time-independent and time-dependent occurrence models on the seismic hazard estimations. The time-dependence is introduced by 1) the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) probability model that is based on a simple physical model of the earthquake cycle, and 2) the fusion of the BPT renewal model with a physical model that considers the earthquake probability perturbation for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes We treat the uncertainties in the fault parameters (e.g. slip rate, characteristic magnitude and aperiodicity) of the statistical distribution associated to each examined fault source by a Monte Carlo technique. For a comparison among the results obtained from three different models, we give the probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes Mw > 6.5 for individual fault sources in the Marmara region, over the future 5-10-30 and 50 years, starting on January 1, 2013, considering the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the Monte Carlo distribution. In order to evaluate the impact of the earthquake probability models to ground motion hazard we attempt to calculate the fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard maps (PSHA) of mean Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) having 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on rock site condition. We adopted only one Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) for the active shallow crustal region for assessing the ground shaking hazard in the Marmara region. We observed that the impact of the different occurrence models on the seismic hazard estimate of selected sites is quite high: the hazard may increase by more than 70% or decrease by as much as 70%, depending on the applied model in the selected sites. This difference mostly depends on the time elapsed after the latest major earthquake on a specific fault. We demonstrate that the estimated average recurrence time and the associated magnitude, together with the elapsed time, are crucial parameters in the earthquake probability calculations.

  10. Advancements in near real time mapping of earthquake and rainfall induced landslides in the Avcilar Peninsula, Marmara Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coccia, Stella

    2014-05-01

    Stella COCCIA (1), Fiona THEOLEYRE (1), Pascal BIGARRE(1) , Semih ERGINTAV(2), Oguz OZEL(3) and Serdar ÖZALAYBEY(4) (1) National Institute of Industrial Environment and Risks (INERIS) Nancy, France, (2) Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), Istanbul, Turkey, (3) Istanbul University (IU), Istanbul, Turkey, (4) TUBITAK MAM, Istanbul, Turkey The European Project MARsite (http://marsite.eu/), started in 2012 and leaded by the KOERI, aims to improve seismic risk evaluation and preparedness to face the next dreadful large event expected for the next three decades. MARsite is thus expected to move a "step forward" the most advanced monitoring technologies, and offering promising open databases to the worldwide scientific community in the frame of other European environmental large-scale infrastructures, such as EPOS (http://www.epos-eu.org/ ). Among the 11 work packages (WP), the main aim of the WP6 is to study seismically-induced landslide hazard, by using and improving observing and monitoring systems in geological, hydrogeotechnical and seismic onshore and offshore areas. One of the WP6 specific study area is the Avcilar Peninsula, situated between Kucukcekmece and Buyukcekmece Lakes in the north-west of the region of Marmara. There, more than 400 landslides are located. According to geological and geotechnical investigations and studies, soil movements of this area are related to underground water and pore pressure changes, seismic forces arising after earthquakes and decreasing sliding strength in fissured and heavily consolidated clays. The WP6 includes various tasks and one of these works on a methodology to develop a dynamic system to create combined earthquake and rainfall induced landslides hazard maps at near real time and automatically. This innovative system could be used to improve the prevention strategy as well as in disaster management and relief operations. Base on literature review a dynamic GIS platform is used to combine

  11. Ecosystem Structure Changes in the Turkish Seas as a Response to Overfishing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gazihan Akoglu, Ayse; Salihoglu, Baris; Akoglu, Ekin; Kideys, Ahmet E.

    2013-04-01

    Human population in Turkey has grown more than five-fold since its establishment in 1923 and more than 73 million people are currently living in the country. Turkey is surrounded by partially connected seas (the Black Sea, the Sea of Marmara, the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea) each of which has significantly different productivity levels and ecosystem characteristics. Increasing human population with its growing socio-economic needs has generated an intensive fishing pressure on the fish stocks in its exclusive economic zone. Fishing grounds in the surrounding seas were exploited with different fishing intensities depending upon their productivity level and catch rates. Hence, the responses of these different ecosystems to overfishing have been realized differently. In this study, changes of the ecosystem structures in the Turkish Seas were comparatively investigated by ecosystem indices such as Marine Trophic Index (MTI), Fishing in Balance (FiB) and Primary Production Required (PPR) to assess the degree of sustainability of the fish stocks for future generations.

  12. Bayesian inference in geomagnetism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1988-01-01

    The inverse problem in empirical geomagnetic modeling is investigated, with critical examination of recently published studies. Particular attention is given to the use of Bayesian inference (BI) to select the damping parameter lambda in the uniqueness portion of the inverse problem. The mathematical bases of BI and stochastic inversion are explored, with consideration of bound-softening problems and resolution in linear Gaussian BI. The problem of estimating the radial magnetic field B(r) at the earth core-mantle boundary from surface and satellite measurements is then analyzed in detail, with specific attention to the selection of lambda in the studies of Gubbins (1983) and Gubbins and Bloxham (1985). It is argued that the selection method is inappropriate and leads to lambda values much larger than those that would result if a reasonable bound on the heat flow at the CMB were assumed.

  13. BIE: Bayesian Inference Engine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinberg, Martin D.

    2013-12-01

    The Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE) is an object-oriented library of tools written in C++ designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. To facilitate "what if" exploration, BIE provides a command line interface (written with Bison and Flex) to run input scripts. The output of the code is a simulation of the Bayesian posterior distribution from which summary statistics e.g. by taking moments, or determine confidence intervals and so forth, can be determined. All of these quantities are fundamentally integrals and the Markov Chain approach produces variates heta distributed according to P( heta|D) so moments are trivially obtained by summing of the ensemble of variates.

  14. Bayes factors and multimodel inference

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Barker, R.J.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

    2009-01-01

    Multimodel inference has two main themes: model selection, and model averaging. Model averaging is a means of making inference conditional on a model set, rather than on a selected model, allowing formal recognition of the uncertainty associated with model choice. The Bayesian paradigm provides a natural framework for model averaging, and provides a context for evaluation of the commonly used AIC weights. We review Bayesian multimodel inference, noting the importance of Bayes factors. Noting the sensitivity of Bayes factors to the choice of priors on parameters, we define and propose nonpreferential priors as offering a reasonable standard for objective multimodel inference.

  15. Learning to Observe "and" Infer

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanuscin, Deborah L.; Park Rogers, Meredith A.

    2008-01-01

    Researchers describe the need for students to have multiple opportunities and social interaction to learn about the differences between observation and inference and their role in developing scientific explanations (Harlen 2001; Simpson 2000). Helping children develop their skills of observation and inference in science while emphasizing the…

  16. Feature Inference Learning and Eyetracking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rehder, Bob; Colner, Robert M.; Hoffman, Aaron B.

    2009-01-01

    Besides traditional supervised classification learning, people can learn categories by inferring the missing features of category members. It has been proposed that feature inference learning promotes learning a category's internal structure (e.g., its typical features and interfeature correlations) whereas classification promotes the learning of…

  17. Improving Inferences from Multiple Methods.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shotland, R. Lance; Mark, Melvin M.

    1987-01-01

    Multiple evaluation methods (MEMs) can cause an inferential challenge, although there are strategies to strengthen inferences. Practical and theoretical issues involved in the use by social scientists of MEMs, three potential problems in drawing inferences from MEMs, and short- and long-term strategies for alleviating these problems are outlined.…

  18. Causal Inference in Retrospective Studies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holland, Paul W.; Rubin, Donald B.

    1988-01-01

    The problem of drawing causal inferences from retrospective case-controlled studies is considered. A model for causal inference in prospective studies is applied to retrospective studies. Limitations of case-controlled studies are formulated concerning relevant parameters that can be estimated in such studies. A coffee-drinking/myocardial…

  19. Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, E. Michael

    2010-01-01

    Causal inference is of central importance to developmental psychology. Many key questions in the field revolve around improving the lives of children and their families. These include identifying risk factors that if manipulated in some way would foster child development. Such a task inherently involves causal inference: One wants to know whether…

  20. Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.

    2010-01-01

    This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.

  1. An optical model for the microwave properties of sea ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gloersen, P.; Larabee, J. K.

    1981-01-01

    The complex refractive index of sea ice is modeled and used to predict the microwave signatures of various sea ice types. Results are shown to correspond well with the observed values of the complex index inferred from dielectic constant and dielectric loss measurements performed in the field, and with observed microwave signatures of sea ice. The success of this modeling procedure vis a vis modeling of the dielectric properties of sea ice constituents used earlier by several others is explained. Multiple layer radiative transfer calculations are used to predict the microwave properties of first-year sea ice with and without snow, and multiyear sea ice.

  2. Active inference, communication and hermeneutics.

    PubMed

    Friston, Karl J; Frith, Christopher D

    2015-07-01

    Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others--during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions--both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then--in principle--they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa.

  3. Active inference, communication and hermeneutics☆

    PubMed Central

    Friston, Karl J.; Frith, Christopher D.

    2015-01-01

    Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others – during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions – both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then – in principle – they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. PMID:25957007

  4. Active inference, communication and hermeneutics.

    PubMed

    Friston, Karl J; Frith, Christopher D

    2015-07-01

    Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others--during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions--both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then--in principle--they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. PMID:25957007

  5. Optimal inference with suboptimal models: Addiction and active Bayesian inference

    PubMed Central

    Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H.B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Wurst, Friedrich; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

    2015-01-01

    When casting behaviour as active (Bayesian) inference, optimal inference is defined with respect to an agent’s beliefs – based on its generative model of the world. This contrasts with normative accounts of choice behaviour, in which optimal actions are considered in relation to the true structure of the environment – as opposed to the agent’s beliefs about worldly states (or the task). This distinction shifts an understanding of suboptimal or pathological behaviour away from aberrant inference as such, to understanding the prior beliefs of a subject that cause them to behave less ‘optimally’ than our prior beliefs suggest they should behave. Put simply, suboptimal or pathological behaviour does not speak against understanding behaviour in terms of (Bayes optimal) inference, but rather calls for a more refined understanding of the subject’s generative model upon which their (optimal) Bayesian inference is based. Here, we discuss this fundamental distinction and its implications for understanding optimality, bounded rationality and pathological (choice) behaviour. We illustrate our argument using addictive choice behaviour in a recently described ‘limited offer’ task. Our simulations of pathological choices and addictive behaviour also generate some clear hypotheses, which we hope to pursue in ongoing empirical work. PMID:25561321

  6. The Cosmonaut Sea Wedge

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Solli, K.; Kuvaas, B.; Kristoffersen, Y.; Leitchenkov, G.; Guseva, J.; Gandyukhin, V.

    2007-01-01

    A set of multi-channel seismic profiles (~15000 km) acquired by Russia, Norway and Australia has been used to investigate the depositional evolution of the Cosmonaut Sea margin of East Antarctica. We recognize a regional sediment wedge below the upper part of the continental rise. The wedge, herein termed the Cosmonaut Sea Wedge, is positioned stratigraphically underneath the inferred glaciomarine section and extends for at least 1200 km along the continental margin and from 80 to about 250 km seaward or to the north. Lateral variations in the growth pattern of the wedge indicate several overlapping depocentres, which at their distal northern end are flanked by elongated mounded drifts and contourite sheets. The internal stratification of the mounded drift deposits suggests that westward flowing bottom currents reworked the marginal deposits. The action of these currents together with sea-level changes is considered to have controlled the growth of the wedge. We interpret the Cosmonaut Sea Wedge as a composite feature comprising several bottom current reworked fan systems.

  7. Red Sea

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2013-04-16

    article title:  The Red Sea     View Larger Image ... Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) image of the Red Sea was acquired on August 13, 2000. Located between the East African coast and the Saudi Arabian peninsula, the Red Sea got its name because the blooms of a type of algae,  Trichodesmium ...

  8. Children's Category-Based Inferences Affect Classification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ross, Brian H.; Gelman, Susan A.; Rosengren, Karl S.

    2005-01-01

    Children learn many new categories and make inferences about these categories. Much work has examined how children make inferences on the basis of category knowledge. However, inferences may also affect what is learned about a category. Four experiments examine whether category-based inferences during category learning influence category knowledge…

  9. Causal inference from observational data.

    PubMed

    Listl, Stefan; Jürges, Hendrik; Watt, Richard G

    2016-10-01

    Randomized controlled trials have long been considered the 'gold standard' for causal inference in clinical research. In the absence of randomized experiments, identification of reliable intervention points to improve oral health is often perceived as a challenge. But other fields of science, such as social science, have always been challenged by ethical constraints to conducting randomized controlled trials. Methods have been established to make causal inference using observational data, and these methods are becoming increasingly relevant in clinical medicine, health policy and public health research. This study provides an overview of state-of-the-art methods specifically designed for causal inference in observational data, including difference-in-differences (DiD) analyses, instrumental variables (IV), regression discontinuity designs (RDD) and fixed-effects panel data analysis. The described methods may be particularly useful in dental research, not least because of the increasing availability of routinely collected administrative data and electronic health records ('big data'). PMID:27111146

  10. We infer light in space.

    PubMed

    Schirillo, James A

    2013-10-01

    In studies of lightness and color constancy, the terms lightness and brightness refer to the qualia corresponding to perceived surface reflectance and perceived luminance, respectively. However, what has rarely been considered is the fact that the volume of space containing surfaces appears neither empty, void, nor black, but filled with light. Helmholtz (1866/1962) came closest to describing this phenomenon when discussing inferred illumination, but previous theoretical treatments have fallen short by restricting their considerations to the surfaces of objects. The present work is among the first to explore how we infer the light present in empty space. It concludes with several research examples supporting the theory that humans can infer the differential levels and chromaticities of illumination in three-dimensional space. PMID:23435628

  11. Inferring Diversity: Life After Shannon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giffin, Adom

    The diversity of a community that cannot be fully counted must be inferred. The two preeminent inference methods are the MaxEnt method, which uses information in the form of constraints and Bayes' rule which uses information in the form of data. It has been shown that these two methods are special cases of the method of Maximum (relative) Entropy (ME). We demonstrate how this method can be used as a measure of diversity that not only reproduces the features of Shannon's index but exceeds them by allowing more types of information to be included in the inference. A specific example is solved in detail. Additionally, the entropy that is found is the same form as the thermodynamic entropy.

  12. Perception, illusions and Bayesian inference.

    PubMed

    Nour, Matthew M; Nour, Joseph M

    2015-01-01

    Descriptive psychopathology makes a distinction between veridical perception and illusory perception. In both cases a perception is tied to a sensory stimulus, but in illusions the perception is of a false object. This article re-examines this distinction in light of new work in theoretical and computational neurobiology, which views all perception as a form of Bayesian statistical inference that combines sensory signals with prior expectations. Bayesian perceptual inference can solve the 'inverse optics' problem of veridical perception and provides a biologically plausible account of a number of illusory phenomena, suggesting that veridical and illusory perceptions are generated by precisely the same inferential mechanisms.

  13. Inferring biotic interactions from proxies.

    PubMed

    Morales-Castilla, Ignacio; Matias, Miguel G; Gravel, Dominique; Araújo, Miguel B

    2015-06-01

    Inferring biotic interactions from functional, phylogenetic and geographical proxies remains one great challenge in ecology. We propose a conceptual framework to infer the backbone of biotic interaction networks within regional species pools. First, interacting groups are identified to order links and remove forbidden interactions between species. Second, additional links are removed by examination of the geographical context in which species co-occur. Third, hypotheses are proposed to establish interaction probabilities between species. We illustrate the framework using published food-webs in terrestrial and marine systems. We conclude that preliminary descriptions of the web of life can be made by careful integration of data with theory.

  14. The analysis of historical earthquakes of the North Anatolian Fault in the Marmara Region, Turkey for the last 15 centuries based on intensity and continuous Coulomb scenarios: Implications for the fault geometry and the interaction of individual earthqua

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yaltırak, Cenk; Şahin, Murat

    2016-04-01

    In this study we evaluated the historical earthquakes of the Marmara Region totally in three-stages. In first stage, historical earthquakes were compiled from the available catalogues and classified according to their spatial distribution, whereas only the ones, related with the active northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) were selected. Then, the next phase of classification was made to relate historical data to the ancient and historical settlements, for which a kind of shake map was produced for each event. In the second stage, three different fault models, suggested for the geometry of the NAF in the Marmara Region, were integrated into a GIS database. Mw magnitudes were calculated for each fault segment by using lengths, seismogenic depths, and slip-rates of fault segments. In the third stage, the revised digital geological map of the Marmara Region were compiled based on 1:500k conventional maps and were used to estimate the Vs30 distribution within a grid of 750x750 m. Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) maps were produced for each earthquake scenario, depending on the geometry of different fault models, calculated model magnitudes and intensity distributions. Moreover, we tested the surface ruptures of each earthquake scenarios by using the Coulomb stress change model for historical data covering a time era between AD 478 and 2016 in assumption with a constant horizontal slip rate of 19 mma-1 for all fault segments. As conclusion, the horsetail-fault geometry (Yaltırak, 2002) among all 3 fault models yielded the best fit to the distribution of intensities and coulomb models.

  15. Perceptual Inference and Autistic Traits

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skewes, Joshua C; Jegindø, Else-Marie; Gebauer, Line

    2015-01-01

    Autistic people are better at perceiving details. Major theories explain this in terms of bottom-up sensory mechanisms or in terms of top-down cognitive biases. Recently, it has become possible to link these theories within a common framework. This framework assumes that perception is implicit neural inference, combining sensory evidence with…

  16. Science Shorts: Observation versus Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leager, Craig R.

    2008-01-01

    When you observe something, how do you know for sure what you are seeing, feeling, smelling, or hearing? Asking students to think critically about their encounters with the natural world will help to strengthen their understanding and application of the science-process skills of observation and inference. In the following lesson, students make…

  17. Sample Size and Correlational Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Richard B.; Doherty, Michael E.; Friedrich, Jeff C.

    2008-01-01

    In 4 studies, the authors examined the hypothesis that the structure of the informational environment makes small samples more informative than large ones for drawing inferences about population correlations. The specific purpose of the studies was to test predictions arising from the signal detection simulations of R. B. Anderson, M. E. Doherty,…

  18. Improving Explanatory Inferences from Assessments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diakow, Ronli Phyllis

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation comprises three papers that propose, discuss, and illustrate models to make improved inferences about research questions regarding student achievement in education. Addressing the types of questions common in educational research today requires three different "extensions" to traditional educational assessment: (1)…

  19. Processing the Bouguer anomaly map of Biga and the surrounding area by the cellular neural network: application to the southwestern Marmara region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aydogan, D.

    2007-04-01

    An image processing technique called the cellular neural network (CNN) approach is used in this study to locate geological features giving rise to gravity anomalies such as faults or the boundary of two geologic zones. CNN is a stochastic image processing technique based on template optimization using the neighborhood relationships of cells. These cells can be characterized by a functional block diagram that is typical of neural network theory. The functionality of CNN is described in its entirety by a number of small matrices (A, B and I) called the cloning template. CNN can also be considered to be a nonlinear convolution of these matrices. This template describes the strength of the nearest neighbor interconnections in the network. The recurrent perceptron learning algorithm (RPLA) is used in optimization of cloning template. The CNN and standard Canny algorithms were first tested on two sets of synthetic gravity data with the aim of checking the reliability of the proposed approach. The CNN method was compared with classical derivative techniques by applying the cross-correlation method (CC) to the same anomaly map as this latter approach can detect some features that are difficult to identify on the Bouguer anomaly maps. This approach was then applied to the Bouguer anomaly map of Biga and its surrounding area, in Turkey. Structural features in the area between Bandirma, Biga, Yenice and Gonen in the southwest Marmara region are investigated by applying the CNN and CC to the Bouguer anomaly map. Faults identified by these algorithms are generally in accordance with previously mapped surface faults. These examples show that the geologic boundaries can be detected from Bouguer anomaly maps using the cloning template approach. A visual evaluation of the outputs of the CNN and CC approaches is carried out, and the results are compared with each other. This approach provides quantitative solutions based on just a few assumptions, which makes the method more

  20. The possibility and timing for a sea waterway via the Lake Iznik (Turkey)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alpar, B.

    2012-04-01

    The Sea of Marmara is connected to the Black Sea through the Bosporus strait. The idea of another waterway existed between these seas during the late Quaternary is much of great interest to scientific community. Taking into account the marine microfaunal composition collected from lake surface sediments some researchers claim that there was an alternative waterway connection via the lakes of Iznik and Sapanca, located at the eastward extensions of the Gulf of Gemlik and Izmit Bay, respectively. In addition a Holocene age is suggested for the latest flooding event. On the contrary, other researchers who have questioned the possibility for a waterway connection through these lakes and the lower course of Sakarya River during the Holocene or the late Pleistocene, claim that a marine connection could not be possible for at least the past 500,000 years. On the basis of the global sea-level change and regional tectonic uplift rates, for example, a connection between the Lake Iznik and the Sea of Marmara may not have been possible after 310,000 years BP. Both of the lakes, representing adjacent E-W-oriented narrow depressions, are controlled by the transpressional effects of the northern and central segments of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) zone since the Late Miocene - Pliocene. On the basis of available seismic reflection data, the deep trough along the southern margin of Lake Iznik has been evolved under the control of a releasing bend system. Similar to the Hersek Pass separating the outer and central sub-basins of the Izmit Bay at present, this system formed the Karsak Pass between the Lake Iznik and the Gulf of Gemlik, and the brackish waters discharged into the Sea of Marmara. At present, the central segment of the NAF cuts this system and extends towards the Gulf of Gemlik, which is separated from the Lake Iznik by the uplifted Karsak sill (+83 m), similar to the pressure ridge on the Hersek Delta. Therefore the main trough of the Lake Iznik existed before the

  1. Two Sea-Level Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galvin, C.

    2008-12-01

    "No place on the sandy ocean shores of the world has been shown to be eroding because of sea level rise." This statement appeared nearly 19 years ago in bold print at the top of the page in a brief article published in Shore and Beach (Galvin,1990). The term "sea level rise" was defined in 1990 as follows: "In this statement, "sea level rise" has the meaning that the average person on the street usually attaches to that term. That is, sea level is rising; not, as in some places like the Mississippi River delta, land level is sinking." While still a subject of controversy, it is now (2008) increasingly plausible (Tornqvist et al,2008) that damage from Hurricane Katrina was significantly worse on the Mississippi River delta because floodwaters exploited wetlands and levees whose elevations had been lowered by decades of compaction in the underlying soil. (1) "Sea level" commonly appears in the literature as "relative sea level rise", occurring that way in 711 publications between 1980 and 2009 (GeoRef database on 8 Sep 08). "Relative sea level rise" does not appear in the 2005 AGI Glossary. The nearest Glossary term is "relative change in sea level", but that term occurs in only 12 publications between 1980 and 2009. The Glossary defines this term in a sequence stratigraphy sense, which infers that "relative sea level rise" is the sum of bottom subsidence and eustatic sea level rise. In plain English, "relative sea level rise" means "water depth increase". For present day coastal environments, "relative sea level rise" is commonly used where eustatic sea level rise is less than subsidence, that is, where the magnitude of actual sea level rise is smaller than the magnitude of subsidence. In that situation, "relative sea level rise" misleads both the average person and the scientist who is not a coastal geologist. Thus, the first challenge is to abandon "relative sea level rise" in favor of "water depth increase", in order that the words accurately descibe what happens

  2. Network Plasticity as Bayesian Inference

    PubMed Central

    Legenstein, Robert; Maass, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    General results from statistical learning theory suggest to understand not only brain computations, but also brain plasticity as probabilistic inference. But a model for that has been missing. We propose that inherently stochastic features of synaptic plasticity and spine motility enable cortical networks of neurons to carry out probabilistic inference by sampling from a posterior distribution of network configurations. This model provides a viable alternative to existing models that propose convergence of parameters to maximum likelihood values. It explains how priors on weight distributions and connection probabilities can be merged optimally with learned experience, how cortical networks can generalize learned information so well to novel experiences, and how they can compensate continuously for unforeseen disturbances of the network. The resulting new theory of network plasticity explains from a functional perspective a number of experimental data on stochastic aspects of synaptic plasticity that previously appeared to be quite puzzling. PMID:26545099

  3. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    PubMed

    Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio

    2015-01-01

    Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

  4. Bayesian Inference on Proportional Elections

    PubMed Central

    Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio

    2015-01-01

    Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software. PMID:25786259

  5. Statistical learning and selective inference

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Jonathan; Tibshirani, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    We describe the problem of “selective inference.” This addresses the following challenge: Having mined a set of data to find potential associations, how do we properly assess the strength of these associations? The fact that we have “cherry-picked”—searched for the strongest associations—means that we must set a higher bar for declaring significant the associations that we see. This challenge becomes more important in the era of big data and complex statistical modeling. The cherry tree (dataset) can be very large and the tools for cherry picking (statistical learning methods) are now very sophisticated. We describe some recent new developments in selective inference and illustrate their use in forward stepwise regression, the lasso, and principal components analysis. PMID:26100887

  6. Causal inference based on counterfactuals

    PubMed Central

    Höfler, M

    2005-01-01

    Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept. PMID:16159397

  7. Cortical circuits for perceptual inference.

    PubMed

    Friston, Karl; Kiebel, Stefan

    2009-10-01

    This paper assumes that cortical circuits have evolved to enable inference about the causes of sensory input received by the brain. This provides a principled specification of what neural circuits have to achieve. Here, we attempt to address how the brain makes inferences by casting inference as an optimisation problem. We look at how the ensuing recognition dynamics could be supported by directed connections and message-passing among neuronal populations, given our knowledge of intrinsic and extrinsic neuronal connections. We assume that the brain models the world as a dynamic system, which imposes causal structure on the sensorium. Perception is equated with the optimisation or inversion of this internal model, to explain sensory input. Given a model of how sensory data are generated, we use a generic variational approach to model inversion to furnish equations that prescribe recognition; i.e., the dynamics of neuronal activity that represents the causes of sensory input. Here, we focus on a model whose hierarchical and dynamical structure enables simulated brains to recognise and predict sequences of sensory states. We first review these models and their inversion under a variational free-energy formulation. We then show that the brain has the necessary infrastructure to implement this inversion and present stimulations using synthetic birds that generate and recognise birdsongs.

  8. Cortical circuits for perceptual inference.

    PubMed

    Friston, Karl; Kiebel, Stefan

    2009-10-01

    This paper assumes that cortical circuits have evolved to enable inference about the causes of sensory input received by the brain. This provides a principled specification of what neural circuits have to achieve. Here, we attempt to address how the brain makes inferences by casting inference as an optimisation problem. We look at how the ensuing recognition dynamics could be supported by directed connections and message-passing among neuronal populations, given our knowledge of intrinsic and extrinsic neuronal connections. We assume that the brain models the world as a dynamic system, which imposes causal structure on the sensorium. Perception is equated with the optimisation or inversion of this internal model, to explain sensory input. Given a model of how sensory data are generated, we use a generic variational approach to model inversion to furnish equations that prescribe recognition; i.e., the dynamics of neuronal activity that represents the causes of sensory input. Here, we focus on a model whose hierarchical and dynamical structure enables simulated brains to recognise and predict sequences of sensory states. We first review these models and their inversion under a variational free-energy formulation. We then show that the brain has the necessary infrastructure to implement this inversion and present stimulations using synthetic birds that generate and recognise birdsongs. PMID:19635656

  9. Category Representation for Classification and Feature Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johansen, Mark K.; Kruschke, John K.

    2005-01-01

    This research's purpose was to contrast the representations resulting from learning of the same categories by either classifying instances or inferring instance features. Prior inference learning research, particularly T. Yamauchi and A. B. Markman (1998), has suggested that feature inference learning fosters prototype representation, whereas…

  10. Arabian Sea

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2013-04-16

    ... sometimes results in copious phytoplankton production and oxygen depletion of the subsurface waters. Although red phytoplankton fluorescences have been associated with the low oxygen concentrations in the intermediate and deep waters of the Arabian Sea, ...

  11. sick: The Spectroscopic Inference Crank

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casey, Andrew R.

    2016-03-01

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  12. Universum Inference and Corpus Homogeneity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vogel, Carl; Lynch, Gerard; Janssen, Jerom

    Universum Inference is re-interpreted for assessment of corpus homogeneity in computational stylometry. Recent stylometric research quantifies strength of characterization within dramatic works by assessing the homogeneity of corpora associated with dramatic personas. A methodological advance is suggested to mitigate the potential for the assessment of homogeneity to be achieved by chance. Baseline comparison analysis is constructed for contributions to debates by nonfictional participants: the corpus analyzed consists of transcripts of US Presidential and Vice-Presidential debates from the 2000 election cycle. The corpus is also analyzed in translation to Italian, Spanish and Portuguese. Adding randomized categories makes assessments of homogeneity more conservative.

  13. Sea Legs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macdonald, Kenneth C.

    Forty-foot, storm-swept seas, Spitzbergen polar bears roaming vast expanses of Arctic ice, furtive exchanges of forbidden manuscripts in Cold War Moscow, the New York city fashion scene, diving in mini-subs to the sea floor hot srings, life with the astronauts, romance and heartbreak, and invading the last bastions of male exclusivity: all are present in this fast-moving, non-fiction account of one woman' fascinating adventures in the world of marine geology and oceanography.

  14. Evolution of the plankton paleome in the Black Sea from the Deglacial to Anthropocene.

    PubMed

    Coolen, Marco J L; Orsi, William D; Balkema, Cherel; Quince, Christopher; Harris, Keith; Sylva, Sean P; Filipova-Marinova, Mariana; Giosan, Liviu

    2013-05-21

    The complex interplay of climate shifts over Eurasia and global sea level changes modulates freshwater and saltwater inputs to the Black Sea. The dynamics of the hydrologic changes from the Late Glacial into the Holocene remain a matter of debate, and information on how these changes affected the ecology of the Black Sea is sparse. Here we used Roche 454 next-generation pyrosequencing of sedimentary 18S rRNA genes to reconstruct the plankton community structure in the Black Sea over the last ca. 11,400 y. We found that 150 of 2,710 species showed a statistically significant response to four environmental stages. Freshwater chlorophytes were the best indicator species for lacustrine conditions (>9.0 ka B.P.), although the copresence of previously unidentified marine taxa indicated that the Black Sea might have been influenced to some extent by the Marmara Sea since at least 9.6 ka calendar (cal) B.P. Dinoflagellates, cercozoa, eustigmatophytes, and haptophytes responded most dramatically to the gradual increase in salinity after the latest marine reconnection and during the warm and moist mid-Holocene climatic optimum. According to paired analysis of deuterium/hydrogen (D/H) isotope ratios in fossil alkenones, salinity increased rapidly with the onset of the dry Subboreal after ~5.2 ka B.P., leading to an increase in marine fungi and the first occurrence of marine copepods. A gradual succession of dinoflagellates, diatoms, and chrysophytes occurred during the refreshening after ~2.5 ka cal B.P. with the onset of the cool and wet Subatlantic climate and recent anthropogenic perturbations. PMID:23650351

  15. Evolution of the plankton paleome in the Black Sea from the Deglacial to Anthropocene.

    PubMed

    Coolen, Marco J L; Orsi, William D; Balkema, Cherel; Quince, Christopher; Harris, Keith; Sylva, Sean P; Filipova-Marinova, Mariana; Giosan, Liviu

    2013-05-21

    The complex interplay of climate shifts over Eurasia and global sea level changes modulates freshwater and saltwater inputs to the Black Sea. The dynamics of the hydrologic changes from the Late Glacial into the Holocene remain a matter of debate, and information on how these changes affected the ecology of the Black Sea is sparse. Here we used Roche 454 next-generation pyrosequencing of sedimentary 18S rRNA genes to reconstruct the plankton community structure in the Black Sea over the last ca. 11,400 y. We found that 150 of 2,710 species showed a statistically significant response to four environmental stages. Freshwater chlorophytes were the best indicator species for lacustrine conditions (>9.0 ka B.P.), although the copresence of previously unidentified marine taxa indicated that the Black Sea might have been influenced to some extent by the Marmara Sea since at least 9.6 ka calendar (cal) B.P. Dinoflagellates, cercozoa, eustigmatophytes, and haptophytes responded most dramatically to the gradual increase in salinity after the latest marine reconnection and during the warm and moist mid-Holocene climatic optimum. According to paired analysis of deuterium/hydrogen (D/H) isotope ratios in fossil alkenones, salinity increased rapidly with the onset of the dry Subboreal after ~5.2 ka B.P., leading to an increase in marine fungi and the first occurrence of marine copepods. A gradual succession of dinoflagellates, diatoms, and chrysophytes occurred during the refreshening after ~2.5 ka cal B.P. with the onset of the cool and wet Subatlantic climate and recent anthropogenic perturbations.

  16. Evolution of the plankton paleome in the Black Sea from the Deglacial to Anthropocene

    PubMed Central

    Coolen, Marco J. L.; Orsi, William D.; Balkema, Cherel; Quince, Christopher; Harris, Keith; Sylva, Sean P.; Filipova-Marinova, Mariana; Giosan, Liviu

    2013-01-01

    The complex interplay of climate shifts over Eurasia and global sea level changes modulates freshwater and saltwater inputs to the Black Sea. The dynamics of the hydrologic changes from the Late Glacial into the Holocene remain a matter of debate, and information on how these changes affected the ecology of the Black Sea is sparse. Here we used Roche 454 next-generation pyrosequencing of sedimentary 18S rRNA genes to reconstruct the plankton community structure in the Black Sea over the last ca. 11,400 y. We found that 150 of 2,710 species showed a statistically significant response to four environmental stages. Freshwater chlorophytes were the best indicator species for lacustrine conditions (>9.0 ka B.P.), although the copresence of previously unidentified marine taxa indicated that the Black Sea might have been influenced to some extent by the Marmara Sea since at least 9.6 ka calendar (cal) B.P. Dinoflagellates, cercozoa, eustigmatophytes, and haptophytes responded most dramatically to the gradual increase in salinity after the latest marine reconnection and during the warm and moist mid-Holocene climatic optimum. According to paired analysis of deuterium/hydrogen (D/H) isotope ratios in fossil alkenones, salinity increased rapidly with the onset of the dry Subboreal after ∼5.2 ka B.P., leading to an increase in marine fungi and the first occurrence of marine copepods. A gradual succession of dinoflagellates, diatoms, and chrysophytes occurred during the refreshening after ∼2.5 ka cal B.P. with the onset of the cool and wet Subatlantic climate and recent anthropogenic perturbations. PMID:23650351

  17. SYMBOLIC INFERENCE OF XENOBIOTIC METABOLISM

    PubMed Central

    MCSHAN, D.C.; UPDADHAYAYA, M.; SHAH, I.

    2009-01-01

    We present a new symbolic computational approach to elucidate the biochemical networks of living systems de novo and we apply it to an important biomedical problem: xenobiotic metabolism. A crucial issue in analyzing and modeling a living organism is understanding its biochemical network beyond what is already known. Our objective is to use the available metabolic information in a representational framework that enables the inference of novel biochemical knowledge and whose results can be validated experimentally. We describe a symbolic computational approach consisting of two parts. First, biotransformation rules are inferred from the molecular graphs of compounds in enzyme-catalyzed reactions. Second, these rules are recursively applied to different compounds to generate novel metabolic networks, containing new biotransformations and new metabolites. Using data for 456 generic reactions and 825 generic compounds from KEGG we were able to extract 110 biotransformation rules, which generalize a subset of known biocatalytic functions. We tested our approach by applying these rules to ethanol, a common substance of abuse and to furfuryl alcohol, a xenobiotic organic solvent, which is absent in metabolic databases. In both cases our predictions on the fate of ethanol and furfuryl alcohol are consistent with the literature on the metabolism of these compounds. PMID:14992532

  18. Bayesian inference for OPC modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burbine, Andrew; Sturtevant, John; Fryer, David; Smith, Bruce W.

    2016-03-01

    The use of optical proximity correction (OPC) demands increasingly accurate models of the photolithographic process. Model building and inference techniques in the data science community have seen great strides in the past two decades which make better use of available information. This paper aims to demonstrate the predictive power of Bayesian inference as a method for parameter selection in lithographic models by quantifying the uncertainty associated with model inputs and wafer data. Specifically, the method combines the model builder's prior information about each modelling assumption with the maximization of each observation's likelihood as a Student's t-distributed random variable. Through the use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, a model's parameter space is explored to find the most credible parameter values. During parameter exploration, the parameters' posterior distributions are generated by applying Bayes' rule, using a likelihood function and the a priori knowledge supplied. The MCMC algorithm used, an affine invariant ensemble sampler (AIES), is implemented by initializing many walkers which semiindependently explore the space. The convergence of these walkers to global maxima of the likelihood volume determine the parameter values' highest density intervals (HDI) to reveal champion models. We show that this method of parameter selection provides insights into the data that traditional methods do not and outline continued experiments to vet the method.

  19. Dopamine, affordance and active inference.

    PubMed

    Friston, Karl J; Shiner, Tamara; FitzGerald, Thomas; Galea, Joseph M; Adams, Rick; Brown, Harriet; Dolan, Raymond J; Moran, Rosalyn; Stephan, Klaas Enno; Bestmann, Sven

    2012-01-01

    The role of dopamine in behaviour and decision-making is often cast in terms of reinforcement learning and optimal decision theory. Here, we present an alternative view that frames the physiology of dopamine in terms of Bayes-optimal behaviour. In this account, dopamine controls the precision or salience of (external or internal) cues that engender action. In other words, dopamine balances bottom-up sensory information and top-down prior beliefs when making hierarchical inferences (predictions) about cues that have affordance. In this paper, we focus on the consequences of changing tonic levels of dopamine firing using simulations of cued sequential movements. Crucially, the predictions driving movements are based upon a hierarchical generative model that infers the context in which movements are made. This means that we can confuse agents by changing the context (order) in which cues are presented. These simulations provide a (Bayes-optimal) model of contextual uncertainty and set switching that can be quantified in terms of behavioural and electrophysiological responses. Furthermore, one can simulate dopaminergic lesions (by changing the precision of prediction errors) to produce pathological behaviours that are reminiscent of those seen in neurological disorders such as Parkinson's disease. We use these simulations to demonstrate how a single functional role for dopamine at the synaptic level can manifest in different ways at the behavioural level.

  20. Trandimensional Inference in the Geosciences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bodin, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    An inverse problem is the task often occurring in many branches of Earth sciences, where the values of some model parameters describing the Earth must be obtained given noisy observations made at the surface. In all applications of inversion, assumptions are made about the nature of the model parametrisation and data noise characteristics, and results can significantly depend on those assumptions. These quantities are often manually `tuned' by means of subjective trial-and-error procedures, and this prevents to accurately quantify uncertainties in the solution. A Bayesian approach allows these assumptions to be relaxed by incorporating relevant parameters as unknowns in the inference problem. Rather than being forced to make decisions on parametrisation, the level of data noise and the weights between data types in advance, as is often the case in an optimization framework, the choice can be informed by the data themselves. Probabilistic sampling techniques such as transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo, allow sampling over complex posterior probability density functions, thus providing information on constraint, trade-offs and uncertainty in the unknowns. This presentation will present a review of transdimensional inference, and its application to different problems, ranging from Geochemistry to Solid Earth Geophysics.

  1. Quantum Inference on Bayesian Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoder, Theodore; Low, Guang Hao; Chuang, Isaac

    2014-03-01

    Because quantum physics is naturally probabilistic, it seems reasonable to expect physical systems to describe probabilities and their evolution in a natural fashion. Here, we use quantum computation to speedup sampling from a graphical probability model, the Bayesian network. A specialization of this sampling problem is approximate Bayesian inference, where the distribution on query variables is sampled given the values e of evidence variables. Inference is a key part of modern machine learning and artificial intelligence tasks, but is known to be NP-hard. Classically, a single unbiased sample is obtained from a Bayesian network on n variables with at most m parents per node in time (nmP(e) - 1 / 2) , depending critically on P(e) , the probability the evidence might occur in the first place. However, by implementing a quantum version of rejection sampling, we obtain a square-root speedup, taking (n2m P(e) -1/2) time per sample. The speedup is the result of amplitude amplification, which is proving to be broadly applicable in sampling and machine learning tasks. In particular, we provide an explicit and efficient circuit construction that implements the algorithm without the need for oracle access.

  2. Inference is bliss: using evolutionary relationship to guide categorical inferences.

    PubMed

    Novick, Laura R; Catley, Kefyn M; Funk, Daniel J

    2011-01-01

    Three experiments, adopting an evolutionary biology perspective, investigated subjects' inferences about living things. Subjects were told that different enzymes help regulate cell function in two taxa and asked which enzyme a third taxon most likely uses. Experiment 1 and its follow-up, with college students, used triads involving amphibians, reptiles, and mammals (reptiles and mammals are most closely related evolutionarily) and plants, fungi, and animals (fungi are more closely related to animals than to plants). Experiment 2, with 10th graders, also included triads involving mammals, birds, and snakes/crocodilians (birds and snakes/crocodilians are most closely related). Some subjects received cladograms (hierarchical diagrams) depicting the evolutionary relationships among the taxa. The effect of providing cladograms depended on students' background in biology. The results illuminate students' misconceptions concerning common taxa and constraints on their willingness to override faulty knowledge when given appropriate evolutionary evidence. Implications for introducing tree thinking into biology curricula are discussed. PMID:21463358

  3. Geodetic observation of sea-level change and crustal deformation in the Baltic Sea region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richter, A.; Groh, A.; Dietrich, R.

    Based on tide gauge observations spanning almost 200 years, homogeneous time series of the mean relative sea level were derived for nine sites at the southern coast of the Baltic Sea. Our regionally concentrated data were complemented by long-term relative sea-level records retrieved from the data base of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). From these records relative sea-level change rates were derived at 51 tide gauge stations for the period between 1908 and 2007. A minimum observation time of 60 years is required for the determination of reliable sea-level rates. At present, no anthropogenic acceleration in sea-level rise is detected in the tide gauge observations in the southern Baltic. The spatial variation of the relative sea-level rates reflects the fingerprint of GIA-induced crustal uplift. Time series of extreme sea levels were also inferred from the tide gauge records. They were complemented by water level information from historic storm surge marks preserved along the German Baltic coast. Based on this combined dataset the incidence and spatial variation of extreme sea levels induced by storm surges were analysed yielding important information for hazard assessments. Permanent GPS observations were used to determine recent crustal deformation rates for 44 stations in the Baltic Sea region. The GPS derived height change rates were applied to reduce the relative sea-level changes observed by tide gauges yielding an estimate for the eustatic sea-level change. For 13 tide gauge-GPS colocation sites a mean eustatic sea-level trend of 1.3 mm/a was derived for the last 100 years.

  4. Structural inference for uncertain networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, Travis; Ball, Brian; Newman, M. E. J.

    2016-01-01

    In the study of networked systems such as biological, technological, and social networks the available data are often uncertain. Rather than knowing the structure of a network exactly, we know the connections between nodes only with a certain probability. In this paper we develop methods for the analysis of such uncertain data, focusing particularly on the problem of community detection. We give a principled maximum-likelihood method for inferring community structure and demonstrate how the results can be used to make improved estimates of the true structure of the network. Using computer-generated benchmark networks we demonstrate that our methods are able to reconstruct known communities more accurately than previous approaches based on data thresholding. We also give an example application to the detection of communities in a protein-protein interaction network.

  5. Transdimensional inference in the geosciences.

    PubMed

    Sambridge, M; Bodin, T; Gallagher, K; Tkalcic, H

    2013-02-13

    Seismologists construct images of the Earth's interior structure using observations, derived from seismograms, collected at the surface. A common approach to such inverse problems is to build a single 'best' Earth model, in some sense. This is despite the fact that the observations by themselves often do not require, or even allow, a single best-fit Earth model to exist. Interpretation of optimal models can be fraught with difficulties, particularly when formal uncertainty estimates become heavily dependent on the regularization imposed. Similar issues occur across the physical sciences with model construction in ill-posed problems. An alternative approach is to embrace the non-uniqueness directly and employ an inference process based on parameter space sampling. Instead of seeking a best model within an optimization framework, one seeks an ensemble of solutions and derives properties of that ensemble for inspection. While this idea has itself been employed for more than 30 years, it is now receiving increasing attention in the geosciences. Recently, it has been shown that transdimensional and hierarchical sampling methods have some considerable benefits for problems involving multiple parameter types, uncertain data errors and/or uncertain model parametrizations, as are common in seismology. Rather than being forced to make decisions on parametrization, the level of data noise and the weights between data types in advance, as is often the case in an optimization framework, the choice can be informed by the data themselves. Despite the relatively high computational burden involved, the number of areas where sampling methods are now feasible is growing rapidly. The intention of this article is to introduce concepts of transdimensional inference to a general readership and illustrate with particular seismological examples. A growing body of references provide necessary detail. PMID:23277604

  6. Sea Ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perovich, D.; Gerland, S.; Hendricks, S.; Meier, Walter N.; Nicolaus, M.; Richter-Menge, J.; Tschudi, M.

    2013-01-01

    During 2013, Arctic sea ice extent remained well below normal, but the September 2013 minimum extent was substantially higher than the record-breaking minimum in 2012. Nonetheless, the minimum was still much lower than normal and the long-term trend Arctic September extent is -13.7 per decade relative to the 1981-2010 average. The less extreme conditions this year compared to 2012 were due to cooler temperatures and wind patterns that favored retention of ice through the summer. Sea ice thickness and volume remained near record-low levels, though indications are of slightly thicker ice compared to the record low of 2012.

  7. Aral Sea

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    This series of MODIS images shows the dwindling Aral Sea. Once one of the world's largest freshwater lakes, the Aral Sea has decreased by as much as 60% over the past few decades due to diversion of the water to grow cotton and rice. These diversion have dropped the lake levels, increased salinity, and nearly decimated the fishing industry. The previous extent of the lake is clearly visible as a whitish perimeter in these image from April 16, May 18, and June 3, 2002. s. Credit: Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC

  8. Bayesian Nonparametric Inference – Why and How

    PubMed Central

    Müller, Peter; Mitra, Riten

    2013-01-01

    We review inference under models with nonparametric Bayesian (BNP) priors. The discussion follows a set of examples for some common inference problems. The examples are chosen to highlight problems that are challenging for standard parametric inference. We discuss inference for density estimation, clustering, regression and for mixed effects models with random effects distributions. While we focus on arguing for the need for the flexibility of BNP models, we also review some of the more commonly used BNP models, thus hopefully answering a bit of both questions, why and how to use BNP. PMID:24368932

  9. Generic Comparison of Protein Inference Engines*

    PubMed Central

    Claassen, Manfred; Reiter, Lukas; Hengartner, Michael O.; Buhmann, Joachim M.; Aebersold, Ruedi

    2012-01-01

    Protein identifications, instead of peptide-spectrum matches, constitute the biologically relevant result of shotgun proteomics studies. How to appropriately infer and report protein identifications has triggered a still ongoing debate. This debate has so far suffered from the lack of appropriate performance measures that allow us to objectively assess protein inference approaches. This study describes an intuitive, generic and yet formal performance measure and demonstrates how it enables experimentalists to select an optimal protein inference strategy for a given collection of fragment ion spectra. We applied the performance measure to systematically explore the benefit of excluding possibly unreliable protein identifications, such as single-hit wonders. Therefore, we defined a family of protein inference engines by extending a simple inference engine by thousands of pruning variants, each excluding a different specified set of possibly unreliable identifications. We benchmarked these protein inference engines on several data sets representing different proteomes and mass spectrometry platforms. Optimally performing inference engines retained all high confidence spectral evidence, without posterior exclusion of any type of protein identifications. Despite the diversity of studied data sets consistently supporting this rule, other data sets might behave differently. In order to ensure maximal reliable proteome coverage for data sets arising in other studies we advocate abstaining from rigid protein inference rules, such as exclusion of single-hit wonders, and instead consider several protein inference approaches and assess these with respect to the presented performance measure in the specific application context. PMID:22057310

  10. Ventilation of the Black Sea pycnocline. Parameterization of convection, numerical simulations and validations against observed chlorofluorocarbon data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanev, E. V.; Staneva, J.; Bullister, J. L.; Murray, J. W.

    2004-12-01

    Data from field observations and numerical model simulations are used to understand and quantify the pathways by which passive tracers penetrate into the Black Sea intermediate and deep layers. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) concentrations measured during the1988 R.V. Knorr cruise show strong decrease with increasing density in the Black Sea and illustrate the very slow rate of ventilation of deep water in this basin. We develop a 3D numerical model based on the Modular Ocean Model (MOM), and calibrate it in a way to produce consistent simulations of observed temperature, salinity and CFCs. One important feature is the implementation of a special parameterization for convection, which is an alternative of the convective adjustment in MOM and handles the penetration of the Bosporus plume into the halocline. The model forcing includes interannually variable wind, heat and water fluxes constructed from Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set and ECMWF atmospheric analysis data and river runoff data. The analysis of observations and simulated data are focused on correlations between thermohaline and tracer fields, dynamic control of ventilation, and the relative contributions of sources at the sea surface and outflow from the Bosporus Strait in the formation of intermediate and deep waters. A simple theory is developed which incorporates the outflow from the strait along with the vertical circulation (vertical turbulent mixing and Ekman upwelling) and reveals their mutual adjustment. The analyses of simulated and observed CFCs demonstrate that most of the CFC penetrating the deep layers has its source at the sea surface within the Black Sea rather than from the Marmara Sea via the Bosporus undercurrent. Under present-day conditions, the surface CFC signals have reached only the upper halocline. Intrusions below 600 m are not simulated. The major pathways of penetration of CFCs are associated with cold-water mass formation sites, Bosporus effluent, as well as with the

  11. Ross Sea

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2013-04-16

    article title:  Icebergs in the Ross Sea     View Larger Image Two large icebergs, designated B-15A and C-16, are captured in this Multi-angle Imaging ... the longitudinal quadrant in which it is first seen, and new icebergs sighted in that quadrant are sequentially numbered. B-15 divided from ...

  12. Aral Sea

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2013-04-16

    ... The retreating shoreline leaves the surface encrusted with salt and with agrochemicals brought in by the rivers. As the Sea's moderating ... Large Aral, and may be associated with windblown snow and/or salt particles carried aloft. The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer ...

  13. Sea-level and deep-sea-temperature variability over the past 5.3 million years.

    PubMed

    Rohling, E J; Foster, G L; Grant, K M; Marino, G; Roberts, A P; Tamisiea, M E; Williams, F

    2014-04-24

    Ice volume (and hence sea level) and deep-sea temperature are key measures of global climate change. Sea level has been documented using several independent methods over the past 0.5 million years (Myr). Older periods, however, lack such independent validation; all existing records are related to deep-sea oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data that are influenced by processes unrelated to sea level. For deep-sea temperature, only one continuous high-resolution (Mg/Ca-based) record exists, with related sea-level estimates, spanning the past 1.5 Myr. Here we present a novel sea-level reconstruction, with associated estimates of deep-sea temperature, which independently validates the previous 0-1.5 Myr reconstruction and extends it back to 5.3 Myr ago. We find that deep-sea temperature and sea level generally decreased through time, but distinctly out of synchrony, which is remarkable given the importance of ice-albedo feedbacks on the radiative forcing of climate. In particular, we observe a large temporal offset during the onset of Plio-Pleistocene ice ages, between a marked cooling step at 2.73 Myr ago and the first major glaciation at 2.15 Myr ago. Last, we tentatively infer that ice sheets may have grown largest during glacials with more modest reductions in deep-sea temperature.

  14. The Impact of Disablers on Predictive Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cummins, Denise Dellarosa

    2014-01-01

    People consider alternative causes when deciding whether a cause is responsible for an effect (diagnostic inference) but appear to neglect them when deciding whether an effect will occur (predictive inference). Five experiments were conducted to test a 2-part explanation of this phenomenon: namely, (a) that people interpret standard predictive…

  15. Local and Global Thinking in Statistical Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pratt, Dave; Johnston-Wilder, Peter; Ainley, Janet; Mason, John

    2008-01-01

    In this reflective paper, we explore students' local and global thinking about informal statistical inference through our observations of 10- to 11-year-olds, challenged to infer the unknown configuration of a virtual die, but able to use the die to generate as much data as they felt necessary. We report how they tended to focus on local changes…

  16. Causal inference in economics and marketing.

    PubMed

    Varian, Hal R

    2016-07-01

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

  17. Genetic Network Inference Using Hierarchical Structure

    PubMed Central

    Kimura, Shuhei; Tokuhisa, Masato; Okada-Hatakeyama, Mariko

    2016-01-01

    Many methods for inferring genetic networks have been proposed, but the regulations they infer often include false-positives. Several researchers have attempted to reduce these erroneous regulations by proposing the use of a priori knowledge about the properties of genetic networks such as their sparseness, scale-free structure, and so on. This study focuses on another piece of a priori knowledge, namely, that biochemical networks exhibit hierarchical structures. Based on this idea, we propose an inference approach that uses the hierarchical structure in a target genetic network. To obtain a reasonable hierarchical structure, the first step of the proposed approach is to infer multiple genetic networks from the observed gene expression data. We take this step using an existing method that combines a genetic network inference method with a bootstrap method. The next step is to extract a hierarchical structure from the inferred networks that is consistent with most of the networks. Third, we use the hierarchical structure obtained to assign confidence values to all candidate regulations. Numerical experiments are also performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of using the hierarchical structure in the genetic network inference. The improvement accomplished by the use of the hierarchical structure is small. However, the hierarchical structure could be used to improve the performances of many existing inference methods. PMID:26941653

  18. The Reasoning behind Informal Statistical Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Makar, Katie; Bakker, Arthur; Ben-Zvi, Dani

    2011-01-01

    Informal statistical inference (ISI) has been a frequent focus of recent research in statistics education. Considering the role that context plays in developing ISI calls into question the need to be more explicit about the reasoning that underpins ISI. This paper uses educational literature on informal statistical inference and philosophical…

  19. Reinforcement learning or active inference?

    PubMed

    Friston, Karl J; Daunizeau, Jean; Kiebel, Stefan J

    2009-01-01

    This paper questions the need for reinforcement learning or control theory when optimising behaviour. We show that it is fairly simple to teach an agent complicated and adaptive behaviours using a free-energy formulation of perception. In this formulation, agents adjust their internal states and sampling of the environment to minimize their free-energy. Such agents learn causal structure in the environment and sample it in an adaptive and self-supervised fashion. This results in behavioural policies that reproduce those optimised by reinforcement learning and dynamic programming. Critically, we do not need to invoke the notion of reward, value or utility. We illustrate these points by solving a benchmark problem in dynamic programming; namely the mountain-car problem, using active perception or inference under the free-energy principle. The ensuing proof-of-concept may be important because the free-energy formulation furnishes a unified account of both action and perception and may speak to a reappraisal of the role of dopamine in the brain.

  20. Active inference and epistemic value.

    PubMed

    Friston, Karl; Rigoli, Francesco; Ognibene, Dimitri; Mathys, Christoph; Fitzgerald, Thomas; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2015-01-01

    We offer a formal treatment of choice behavior based on the premise that agents minimize the expected free energy of future outcomes. Crucially, the negative free energy or quality of a policy can be decomposed into extrinsic and epistemic (or intrinsic) value. Minimizing expected free energy is therefore equivalent to maximizing extrinsic value or expected utility (defined in terms of prior preferences or goals), while maximizing information gain or intrinsic value (or reducing uncertainty about the causes of valuable outcomes). The resulting scheme resolves the exploration-exploitation dilemma: Epistemic value is maximized until there is no further information gain, after which exploitation is assured through maximization of extrinsic value. This is formally consistent with the Infomax principle, generalizing formulations of active vision based upon salience (Bayesian surprise) and optimal decisions based on expected utility and risk-sensitive (Kullback-Leibler) control. Furthermore, as with previous active inference formulations of discrete (Markovian) problems, ad hoc softmax parameters become the expected (Bayes-optimal) precision of beliefs about, or confidence in, policies. This article focuses on the basic theory, illustrating the ideas with simulations. A key aspect of these simulations is the similarity between precision updates and dopaminergic discharges observed in conditioning paradigms. PMID:25689102

  1. Causal Inference in Public Health

    PubMed Central

    Glass, Thomas A.; Goodman, Steven N.; Hernán, Miguel A.; Samet, Jonathan M.

    2014-01-01

    Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action’s consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor’s causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world. PMID:23297653

  2. Inference-based constraint satisfaction supports explanation

    SciTech Connect

    Sqalli, M.H.; Freuder, E.C.

    1996-12-31

    Constraint satisfaction problems are typically solved using search, augmented by general purpose consistency inference methods. This paper proposes a paradigm shift in which inference is used as the primary problem solving method, and attention is focused on special purpose, domain specific inference methods. While we expect this approach to have computational advantages, we emphasize here the advantages of a solution method that is more congenial to human thought processes. Specifically we use inference-based constraint satisfaction to support explanations of the problem solving behavior that are considerably more meaningful than a trace of a search process would be. Logic puzzles are used as a case study. Inference-based constraint satisfaction proves surprisingly powerful and easily extensible in this domain. Problems drawn from commercial logic puzzle booklets are used for evaluation. Explanations are produced that compare well with the explanations provided by these booklets.

  3. From Sea to Shining Sea

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scott, Beverly

    2005-01-01

    Deep down in the depths of the sea, beautiful fish, mysterious ocean life, and unusual plants glimmer and glow in the eerie atmosphere of an ever-changing ocean. This article describes how, with this vision and a purpose in mind, three teachers pulled open classroom walls and joined forces so their second graders could create a mammoth 30 x 75"…

  4. Influence of sea ice on Arctic precipitation.

    PubMed

    Kopec, Ben G; Feng, Xiahong; Michel, Fred A; Posmentier, Eric S

    2016-01-01

    Global climate is influenced by the Arctic hydrologic cycle, which is, in part, regulated by sea ice through its control on evaporation and precipitation. However, the quantitative link between precipitation and sea ice extent is poorly constrained. Here we present observational evidence for the response of precipitation to sea ice reduction and assess the sensitivity of the response. Changes in the proportion of moisture sourced from the Arctic with sea ice change in the Canadian Arctic and Greenland Sea regions over the past two decades are inferred from annually averaged deuterium excess (d-excess) measurements from six sites. Other influences on the Arctic hydrologic cycle, such as the strength of meridional transport, are assessed using the North Atlantic Oscillation index. We find that the independent, direct effect of sea ice on the increase of the percentage of Arctic sourced moisture (or Arctic moisture proportion, AMP) is 18.2 ± 4.6% and 10.8 ± 3.6%/100,000 km(2) sea ice lost for each region, respectively, corresponding to increases of 10.9 ± 2.8% and 2.7 ± 1.1%/1 °C of warming in the vapor source regions. The moisture source changes likely result in increases of precipitation and changes in energy balance, creating significant uncertainty for climate predictions.

  5. Influence of sea ice on Arctic precipitation

    PubMed Central

    Kopec, Ben G.; Feng, Xiahong; Michel, Fred A.; Posmentier, Eric S.

    2016-01-01

    Global climate is influenced by the Arctic hydrologic cycle, which is, in part, regulated by sea ice through its control on evaporation and precipitation. However, the quantitative link between precipitation and sea ice extent is poorly constrained. Here we present observational evidence for the response of precipitation to sea ice reduction and assess the sensitivity of the response. Changes in the proportion of moisture sourced from the Arctic with sea ice change in the Canadian Arctic and Greenland Sea regions over the past two decades are inferred from annually averaged deuterium excess (d-excess) measurements from six sites. Other influences on the Arctic hydrologic cycle, such as the strength of meridional transport, are assessed using the North Atlantic Oscillation index. We find that the independent, direct effect of sea ice on the increase of the percentage of Arctic sourced moisture (or Arctic moisture proportion, AMP) is 18.2 ± 4.6% and 10.8 ± 3.6%/100,000 km2 sea ice lost for each region, respectively, corresponding to increases of 10.9 ± 2.8% and 2.7 ± 1.1%/1 °C of warming in the vapor source regions. The moisture source changes likely result in increases of precipitation and changes in energy balance, creating significant uncertainty for climate predictions. PMID:26699509

  6. Inference of mantle viscosity for depth resolutions of GIA observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakada, Masao; Okuno, Jun'ichi

    2016-11-01

    Inference of the mantle viscosity from observations for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process has usually been conducted through the analyses based on the simple three-layer viscosity model characterized by lithospheric thickness, upper- and lower-mantle viscosities. Here, we examine the viscosity structures for the simple three-layer viscosity model and also for the two-layer lower-mantle viscosity model defined by viscosities of η670,D (670-D km depth) and ηD,2891 (D-2891 km depth) with D-values of 1191, 1691 and 2191 km. The upper-mantle rheological parameters for the two-layer lower-mantle viscosity model are the same as those for the simple three-layer one. For the simple three-layer viscosity model, rate of change of degree-two zonal harmonics of geopotential due to GIA process (GIA-induced J˙2) of -(6.0-6.5) × 10-11 yr-1 provides two permissible viscosity solutions for the lower mantle, (7-20) × 1021 and (5-9) × 1022 Pa s, and the analyses with observational constraints of the J˙2 and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea levels at Barbados and Bonaparte Gulf indicate (5-9) × 1022 Pa s for the lower mantle. However, the analyses for the J˙2 based on the two-layer lower-mantle viscosity model only require a viscosity layer higher than (5-10) × 1021 Pa s for a depth above the core-mantle boundary (CMB), in which the value of (5-10) × 1021 Pa s corresponds to the solution of (7-20) × 1021 Pa s for the simple three-layer one. Moreover, the analyses with the J˙2 and LGM sea level constraints for the two-layer lower-mantle viscosity model indicate two viscosity solutions: η670,1191 > 3 × 1021 and η1191,2891 ˜ (5-10) × 1022 Pa s, and η670,1691 > 1022 and η1691,2891 ˜ (5-10) × 1022 Pa s. The inferred upper-mantle viscosity for such solutions is (1-4) × 1020 Pa s similar to the estimate for the simple three-layer viscosity model. That is, these analyses require a high viscosity layer of (5-10) × 1022 Pa s at least in the deep mantle, and suggest

  7. Probabilistic surface reconstruction of relative sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choblet, Gael; Husson, Laurent; Bodin, Thomas; Capdeville, Yann

    2013-04-01

    Relative sea level is shaped by multiple processes (mantle dynamic topography, plate tectonics, glacio-isostatic adjustment, present day melting of continental ice, anthropogenic causes…), most of which induce spatial gradients in relative sea level fluctuations. The evaluation of the global mean sea level rise is a also a key variable to decipher sea level evolution. Tide gauges represent the only mean to monitor sea-level rise on the scale of the 20th century, while the high quality satellite altimetry era is too short to be immune from short-term fluctuations. Tide gauge data compiled by the Permanent Service for the Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) converts into local estimates of sea level rise. Classically, these in situ observations are averaged spatially in order to infer the global mean sea level trend. However, the strongly heterogeneous distribution of tide gauges (e.g. very sparse in the Southern hemisphere) makes this approach relatively prone to uncertainties, given that sea level rise strongly varies geographically. Last, the societal consequences for coastal communities raise the prominent need for local (rather than global) sea level estimates. An alternative is therefore to provide a global surface reconstruction of relative sea level leading to both local variations and a better constrained global average. Here, we propose such a model from tide gauge records using a probabilistic scheme based on the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (as described by Bodin et al., JGR, 2012 for the example of the Australian Moho). This method allows to infer both model and parameter space so that not only the functions within the model but also the number of functions itself are free to vary. This is particulalry relevant to the case of tide gauges that are unevenly distributed on the surface of the Earth and whose record lengths are strongly variable. In addition, Bayesian statistics leads to a probabilistic representation (rather than a best fitting

  8. Inferring genetic networks from microarray data.

    SciTech Connect

    May, Elebeoba Eni; Davidson, George S.; Martin, Shawn Bryan; Werner-Washburne, Margaret C.; Faulon, Jean-Loup Michel

    2004-06-01

    In theory, it should be possible to infer realistic genetic networks from time series microarray data. In practice, however, network discovery has proved problematic. The three major challenges are: (1) inferring the network; (2) estimating the stability of the inferred network; and (3) making the network visually accessible to the user. Here we describe a method, tested on publicly available time series microarray data, which addresses these concerns. The inference of genetic networks from genome-wide experimental data is an important biological problem which has received much attention. Approaches to this problem have typically included application of clustering algorithms [6]; the use of Boolean networks [12, 1, 10]; the use of Bayesian networks [8, 11]; and the use of continuous models [21, 14, 19]. Overviews of the problem and general approaches to network inference can be found in [4, 3]. Our approach to network inference is similar to earlier methods in that we use both clustering and Boolean network inference. However, we have attempted to extend the process to better serve the end-user, the biologist. In particular, we have incorporated a system to assess the reliability of our network, and we have developed tools which allow interactive visualization of the proposed network.

  9. Statistical Physics of High Dimensional Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Advani, Madhu; Ganguli, Surya

    To model modern large-scale datasets, we need efficient algorithms to infer a set of P unknown model parameters from N noisy measurements. What are fundamental limits on the accuracy of parameter inference, given limited measurements, signal-to-noise ratios, prior information, and computational tractability requirements? How can we combine prior information with measurements to achieve these limits? Classical statistics gives incisive answers to these questions as the measurement density α =N/P --> ∞ . However, modern high-dimensional inference problems, in fields ranging from bio-informatics to economics, occur at finite α. We formulate and analyze high-dimensional inference analytically by applying the replica and cavity methods of statistical physics where data serves as quenched disorder and inferred parameters play the role of thermal degrees of freedom. Our analysis reveals that widely cherished Bayesian inference algorithms such as maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori are suboptimal in the modern setting, and yields new tractable, optimal algorithms to replace them as well as novel bounds on the achievable accuracy of a large class of high-dimensional inference algorithms. Thanks to Stanford Graduate Fellowship and Mind Brain Computation IGERT grant for support.

  10. On Bayesian Inductive Inference & Predictive Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheeseman, Peter; Stutz, John; Smelyanskiy, Vadim

    2004-01-01

    We investigate Bayesian inference and the Principle of Maximum Entropy (PME) as methods for doing inference under uncertainty. This investigation is primarily through concrete examples that have been previously investigated in the literature. We find that it is possible to do Bayesian inference and PME inference using the same information, despite claims to the contrary, but that the results are not directly comparable. This is because Bayesian inference yields a probability density function (pdf) over the unknown model parameters, whereas PME yields point estimates. If mean estimates are extracted from the Bayesian pdfs, the resulting parameter estimates can differ radically from the PME values and also from the Maximum Likelihood values. We conclude that these differences are due to the Bayesian inference not assuming anything beyond the given prior probabilities and the data, whereas PME implicitly assumes that the given constraints are the only constraints that are operating. Since this assumption can be wrong, PME values may have to be revised when subsequent data shows evidence for more constraints. The entropy concentration previously "proved" by E. T. Jaynes is shown to be in error. Further, we show that PME is a generalized form of independence assumption, and so can be a very powerful method of inference when the variables being investigated are largely independent of each other.

  11. Linguistic Markers of Inference Generation While Reading.

    PubMed

    Clinton, Virginia; Carlson, Sarah E; Seipel, Ben

    2016-06-01

    Words can be informative linguistic markers of psychological constructs. The purpose of this study is to examine associations between word use and the process of making meaningful connections to a text while reading (i.e., inference generation). To achieve this purpose, think-aloud data from third-fifth grade students ([Formula: see text]) reading narrative texts were hand-coded for inferences. These data were also processed with a computer text analysis tool, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count, for percentages of word use in the following categories: cognitive mechanism words, nonfluencies, and nine types of function words. Findings indicate that cognitive mechanisms were an independent, positive predictor of connections to background knowledge (i.e., elaborative inference generation) and nonfluencies were an independent, negative predictor of connections within the text (i.e., bridging inference generation). Function words did not provide unique variance towards predicting inference generation. These findings are discussed in the context of a cognitive reflection model and the differences between bridging and elaborative inference generation. In addition, potential practical implications for intelligent tutoring systems and computer-based methods of inference identification are presented.

  12. High resolution archives from the Black Sea and Caspian Sea as records of hydrological changes during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marret, F.; Mudie, P.; Leroy, S.; Aksu, A.; Hiscott, R.

    2009-04-01

    the occurrence of major changes in the Black Sea surface conditions. The dinocyst data have also been integrated in a multiple-proxy study carried out on this record, including carbon and sulphur isotopes, ostracodes and pollen studies. The record, starting at around 9.3 ka BP documents a mild, humid climate and brackish water environment, with the dominance of the quasi-endemic association Spiniferites cruciformis-Pyxidinopsis psilata. A few occurrences of Mediterranean species and recent ecological information from Caspian Sea dinocysts indicate that salinity was not below 7. This brackish association lasted until 6.0 ka BP when it was completely replaced by euryhaline species. However, a significant presence of euryhaline species at 8.5 ka BP indicates that marine conditions were being established, i.e. that the Black Sea was even then connected to the Marmara Sea via the Bosphorus Strait. The period between the first significant increase of euryhaline taxa and the disappearance of the brackish species is characterised by the occurrence of specimens with strong morphological variability. This implies that changes in the sea surface conditions were probably gradual, and that the Black Sea reached its present conditions in about 1500 years. We will also present changes in salinity in the Caspian Sea for the last 5500 years based on dinocyst records. References 1- Marret F., Mudie P.J., Aksu A. and Hiscott R.N. (2007) Holocene dinocyst record of a two-step transformation of the Neoeuxinian brackish water lake into the Black Sea. Quaternary International. 2- Marret F., Leroy S., Chalié F. and Gasse F. (2004) New organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts from recent sediments of Central Asian Seas. . Review of Paleobotany and Palynology 129, 1-20. 3- Leroy S A G, Marret F, Gibert E, Chalie F, Reyss J L and Arpe K (2007) River inflow and salinity changes in the Caspian Sea during the last 5500 years. Quaternary Science Reviews vol 26 issue 25-28 pp 3359-3383

  13. Radioactivity concentrations in mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) of Turkish Sea coast and contribution of ²¹⁰Po to the radiation dose.

    PubMed

    Kılıç, Önder; Belivermiş, Murat; Cotuk, Yavuz; Topçuoğlu, Sayhan

    2014-03-15

    Radionuclides levels were determined in indigenous and transplanted mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) collected from Turkish marine environment. Radioactivity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ²²⁶Ra, ²²⁸Ra, ²¹⁰Po and ²¹⁰Pb were determined in the soft tissues of the mussel samples collected in Bosphorus Strait, Coasts of Black Sea, Marmara Sea and Aegean Sea. Mussel transplantation was carried out by using mussel cages in Levantine Sea coast since M. galloprovincialis did not naturally adapt along the coast. The average activity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ²²⁶Ra, ²²⁸Ra, ²¹⁰Po and ²¹⁰Pb in the coastline of Turkey were found to be 0.7±0.1, 469±24, 0.9±0.1, 1.0±0.1, 122±4 and 10.9±0.9 Bq kg⁻¹ in dry weight (dw), respectively. The average of ²¹⁰Po/²¹⁰Pb ratio was found to be ∼14. Total annual effective ²¹⁰Po dose was calculated to be in the range of 0.25-3.30 μSv due to mussel consumption. Radioactivity and dose levels were compared with those of similar studies carried out in Mediterranean countries. PMID:24398417

  14. Radioactivity concentrations in mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) of Turkish Sea coast and contribution of ²¹⁰Po to the radiation dose.

    PubMed

    Kılıç, Önder; Belivermiş, Murat; Cotuk, Yavuz; Topçuoğlu, Sayhan

    2014-03-15

    Radionuclides levels were determined in indigenous and transplanted mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) collected from Turkish marine environment. Radioactivity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ²²⁶Ra, ²²⁸Ra, ²¹⁰Po and ²¹⁰Pb were determined in the soft tissues of the mussel samples collected in Bosphorus Strait, Coasts of Black Sea, Marmara Sea and Aegean Sea. Mussel transplantation was carried out by using mussel cages in Levantine Sea coast since M. galloprovincialis did not naturally adapt along the coast. The average activity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ²²⁶Ra, ²²⁸Ra, ²¹⁰Po and ²¹⁰Pb in the coastline of Turkey were found to be 0.7±0.1, 469±24, 0.9±0.1, 1.0±0.1, 122±4 and 10.9±0.9 Bq kg⁻¹ in dry weight (dw), respectively. The average of ²¹⁰Po/²¹⁰Pb ratio was found to be ∼14. Total annual effective ²¹⁰Po dose was calculated to be in the range of 0.25-3.30 μSv due to mussel consumption. Radioactivity and dose levels were compared with those of similar studies carried out in Mediterranean countries.

  15. Inference and the introductory statistics course

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfannkuch, Maxine; Regan, Matt; Wild, Chris; Budgett, Stephanie; Forbes, Sharleen; Harraway, John; Parsonage, Ross

    2011-10-01

    This article sets out some of the rationale and arguments for making major changes to the teaching and learning of statistical inference in introductory courses at our universities by changing from a norm-based, mathematical approach to more conceptually accessible computer-based approaches. The core problem of the inferential argument with its hypothetical probabilistic reasoning process is examined in some depth. We argue that the revolution in the teaching of inference must begin. We also discuss some perplexing issues, problematic areas and some new insights into language conundrums associated with introducing the logic of inference through randomization methods.

  16. Degradation monitoring using probabilistic inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alpay, Bulent

    In order to increase safety and improve economy and performance in a nuclear power plant (NPP), the source and extent of component degradations should be identified before failures and breakdowns occur. It is also crucial for the next generation of NPPs, which are designed to have a long core life and high fuel burnup to have a degradation monitoring system in order to keep the reactor in a safe state, to meet the designed reactor core lifetime and to optimize the scheduled maintenance. Model-based methods are based on determining the inconsistencies between the actual and expected behavior of the plant, and use these inconsistencies for detection and diagnostics of degradations. By defining degradation as a random abrupt change from the nominal to a constant degraded state of a component, we employed nonlinear filtering techniques based on state/parameter estimation. We utilized a Bayesian recursive estimation formulation in the sequential probabilistic inference framework and constructed a hidden Markov model to represent a general physical system. By addressing the problem of a filter's inability to estimate an abrupt change, which is called the oblivious filter problem in nonlinear extensions of Kalman filtering, and the sample impoverishment problem in particle filtering, we developed techniques to modify filtering algorithms by utilizing additional data sources to improve the filter's response to this problem. We utilized a reliability degradation database that can be constructed from plant specific operational experience and test and maintenance reports to generate proposal densities for probable degradation modes. These are used in a multiple hypothesis testing algorithm. We then test samples drawn from these proposal densities with the particle filtering estimates based on the Bayesian recursive estimation formulation with the Metropolis Hastings algorithm, which is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC). This multiple hypothesis testing

  17. Trends in UK mean sea level revisited

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodworth, P. L.; Teferle, F. N.; Bingley, R. M.; Shennan, I.; Williams, S. D. P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents estimates of rates of mean sea level (MSL) change around the UK, based on a larger tide gauge data set and more accurate analysis methods than have been employed so far. The spatial variation of the trend in MSL is found to be similar to that inferred from geological information and from advanced geodetic techniques, which is a similar conclusion to that arrived at in the previous studies. The tide gauge MSL trends for 1901 onwards are estimated to be 1.4 +/- 0.2 mm yr-1 larger than those inferred from geology or geodetic methods, suggesting a regional sea level rise of climate change origin several one-tenths of mm per year lower than global estimates for the 20th century. However, UK MSL change cannot be described in terms of a simple linear increase alone but includes variations on interannual and decadal timescales. The possible sources of variation in a `UK sea level index' are explored. Air pressure is clearly one such possible source but its direct local forcing through the `inverse barometer' accounts for only one-third of the observed variability. A number of larger scale atmospheric and ocean processes must also play important roles, but modelling them satisfactorily and separating the individual contributions present a major challenge. As regards future regional UK sea level changes, we conclude that there is no basis for major modification to existing projections for the 2080s included in the 2002 UK Climate Impacts Programme studies.

  18. 48 CFR 1631.205-81 - Inferred reasonableness.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Inferred reasonableness... PRINCIPLES AND PROCEDURES Contracts With Commercial Organizations 1631.205-81 Inferred reasonableness. If the... the subcontract's costs shall be inferred....

  19. 48 CFR 1631.205-81 - Inferred reasonableness.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Inferred reasonableness... PRINCIPLES AND PROCEDURES Contracts With Commercial Organizations 1631.205-81 Inferred reasonableness. If the... the subcontract's costs shall be inferred....

  20. An inference engine for embedded diagnostic systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox, Barry R.; Brewster, Larry T.

    1987-01-01

    The implementation of an inference engine for embedded diagnostic systems is described. The system consists of two distinct parts. The first is an off-line compiler which accepts a propositional logical statement of the relationship between facts and conclusions and produces data structures required by the on-line inference engine. The second part consists of the inference engine and interface routines which accept assertions of fact and return the conclusions which necessarily follow. Given a set of assertions, it will generate exactly the conclusions which logically follow. At the same time, it will detect any inconsistencies which may propagate from an inconsistent set of assertions or a poorly formulated set of rules. The memory requirements are fixed and the worst case execution times are bounded at compile time. The data structures and inference algorithms are very simple and well understood. The data structures and algorithms are described in detail. The system has been implemented on Lisp, Pascal, and Modula-2.

  1. Metacognitive inferences from other people's memory performance.

    PubMed

    Smith, Robert W; Schwarz, Norbert

    2016-09-01

    Three studies show that people draw metacognitive inferences about events from how well others remember the event. Given that memory fades over time, detailed accounts of distant events suggest that the event must have been particularly memorable, for example, because it was extreme. Accordingly, participants inferred that a physical assault (Study 1) or a poor restaurant experience (Studies 2-3) were more extreme when they were well remembered one year rather than one week later. These inferences influence behavioral intentions. For example, participants recommended a more severe punishment for a well-remembered distant rather than recent assault (Study 1). These metacognitive inferences are eliminated when people attribute the reporter's good memory to an irrelevant cause (e.g., photographic memory), thus undermining the informational value of memory performance (Study 3). These studies illuminate how people use lay theories of memory to learn from others' memory performance about characteristics of the world. (PsycINFO Database Record

  2. Metacognitive inferences from other people's memory performance.

    PubMed

    Smith, Robert W; Schwarz, Norbert

    2016-09-01

    Three studies show that people draw metacognitive inferences about events from how well others remember the event. Given that memory fades over time, detailed accounts of distant events suggest that the event must have been particularly memorable, for example, because it was extreme. Accordingly, participants inferred that a physical assault (Study 1) or a poor restaurant experience (Studies 2-3) were more extreme when they were well remembered one year rather than one week later. These inferences influence behavioral intentions. For example, participants recommended a more severe punishment for a well-remembered distant rather than recent assault (Study 1). These metacognitive inferences are eliminated when people attribute the reporter's good memory to an irrelevant cause (e.g., photographic memory), thus undermining the informational value of memory performance (Study 3). These studies illuminate how people use lay theories of memory to learn from others' memory performance about characteristics of the world. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27414693

  3. Are Evaluations Inferred Directly From Overt Actions?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Donald; And Others

    1975-01-01

    The operation of a covert information processing mechanism was investigated in two experiments of the self-persuasion phenomena; i. e., making an inference about a stimulus on the basis of one's past behavior. (Editor)

  4. Metamodel-Driven Evolution with Grammar Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bryant, Barrett R.; Liu, Qichao; Mernik, Marjan

    2010-10-01

    Domain-specific modeling (DSM) has become one of the most popular techniques for incorporating model-driven engineering (MDE) into software engineering. In DSM, domain experts define metamodels to describe the essential problems in a domain. A model conforms to a schema definition represented by a metamodel in a similar manner to a programming language conforms to a grammar. Metamodel-driven evolution is when a metamodel undergoes evolutions to incorporate new concerns in the domain. However, this results in losing the ability to use existing model instances. Grammar inference is the problem of inferring a grammar from sample strings which the grammar should generate. This paper describes our work in solving the problem of metamodel-driven evolution with grammar inference, by inferring the metamodel from model instances.

  5. Causal inference in economics and marketing

    PubMed Central

    Varian, Hal R.

    2016-01-01

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual—a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference. PMID:27382144

  6. Causal inference in economics and marketing.

    PubMed

    Varian, Hal R

    2016-07-01

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference. PMID:27382144

  7. Operation of the Bayes Inference Engine

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, K.M.; Cunningham, G.S.

    1998-07-27

    The authors have developed a computer application, called the Bayes Inference Engine, to enable one to make inferences about models of a physical object from radiographs taken of it. In the BIE calculational models are represented by a data-flow diagram that can be manipulated by the analyst in a graphical-programming environment. The authors demonstrate the operation of the BIE in terms of examples of two-dimensional tomographic reconstruction including uncertainty estimation.

  8. On the criticality of inferred models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Marsili, Matteo

    2011-10-01

    Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct a pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets, from probing simultaneously thousands of units of extended systems—such as cells, neural tissues and financial markets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models which are close to singular values of parameters, akin to critical points in physics where phase transitions occur. These are points where the response of physical systems to external perturbations, as measured by the susceptibility, is very large and diverges in the limit of infinite size. We show that the reparameterization invariant metrics in the space of probability distributions of these models (the Fisher information) are directly related to the susceptibility of the inferred model. As a result, distinguishable models tend to accumulate close to critical points, where the susceptibility diverges in infinite systems. This region is the one where the estimate of inferred parameters is most stable. In order to illustrate these points, we discuss inference of interacting point processes with application to financial data and show that sensible choices of observation time scales naturally yield models which are close to criticality.

  9. Sea Ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, Claire L.; Cavalieri, Donald J.

    2005-01-01

    Sea ice covers vast areas of the polar oceans, with ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere ranging from approximately 7 x 10(exp 6) sq km in September to approximately 15 x 10(exp 6) sq km in March and ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere ranging from approximately 3 x 10(exp 6) sq km in February to approximately 18 x 10(exp 6) sq km in September. These ice covers have major impacts on the atmosphere, oceans, and ecosystems of the polar regions, and so as changes occur in them there are potential widespread consequences. Satellite data reveal considerable interannual variability in both polar sea ice covers, and many studies suggest possible connections between the ice and various oscillations within the climate system, such as the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Antarctic Oscillation, or Southern Annular Mode. Nonetheless, statistically significant long-term trends are also apparent, including overall trends of decreased ice coverage in the Arctic and increased ice coverage in the Antarctic from late 1978 through the end of 2003, with the Antarctic ice increases following marked decreases in the Antarctic ice during the 1970s. For a detailed picture of the seasonally varying ice cover at the start of the 21st century, this chapter includes ice concentration maps for each month of 2001 for both the Arctic and the Antarctic, as well as an overview of what the satellite record has revealed about the two polar ice covers from the 1970s through 2003.

  10. Mammals of the Sea.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naturescope, 1986

    1986-01-01

    Presents information on sea mammals, including definitions and characteristics of cetaceans, pinnipeds, and sirenians. Contains descriptions of the teaching activities "Whale Music,""Draw A Whale to Scale,""Adopt a Sea Mammal," and "Sea Mammal Sleuths." (TW)

  11. Melting Ice, Rising Seas

    NASA Video Gallery

    Sea level rise is an indicator that our planet is warming. Much of the world's population lives on or near the coast, and rising seas are something worth watching. Sea level can rise for two reason...

  12. Geochemistry of the Black Sea during the last 15 kyr: A protracted evolution of its hydrography and ecology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piper, D. Z.

    2016-08-01

    The Black Sea is a 2200 m deep anoxic, marine sea connected to the Mediterranean Sea via the Dardanelles Strait, Marmara Sea, and the 3 km wide, 35 m deep Bosphorus Strait. The biogeochemistry of sediment from the Anatolia slope has recorded changes to the hydrography leading up to and following the input of Mediterranean water at ~9.4 ka (103 years B.P.), when global sea level rose to the level of the Bosphorus sill and high-salinity water from the Mediterranean began to spill into the then brackish lake. The water initially mixed little with the lake water but cascaded to the bottom where it remained essentially isolated for ~1.6 kyr, the time required to fill the basin from the bottom up at its present input rate. The accumulation of Mo in the seafloor sediments, a proxy of bottom-water anoxia, increased sharply at ~8.6 ka, when bacterial respiration in the bottom water advanced to SO42- reduction by the oxidation of organic detritus that settled out of the photic zone. Its accumulation remained elevated to ~5.6 ka, when it decreased 60%, only to again increase slightly at ~2.0 ka. The accumulation of Corg, a proxy of primary productivity, increased threefold to fourfold at ~7.8 ka, when upward mixing of the high-salinity bottom water replaced the then thin veneer of the brackish photic zone in less than 50 years. From that time onward, the accumulation of Corg, Mo, and additional trace metals has reflected the hydrography of the basin and Bosphorus Strait, controlled largely by climate.

  13. Inference of Isoforms from Short Sequence Reads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Jianxing; Li, Wei; Jiang, Tao

    Due to alternative splicing events in eukaryotic species, the identification of mRNA isoforms (or splicing variants) is a difficult problem. Traditional experimental methods for this purpose are time consuming and cost ineffective. The emerging RNA-Seq technology provides a possible effective method to address this problem. Although the advantages of RNA-Seq over traditional methods in transcriptome analysis have been confirmed by many studies, the inference of isoforms from millions of short sequence reads (e.g., Illumina/Solexa reads) has remained computationally challenging. In this work, we propose a method to calculate the expression levels of isoforms and infer isoforms from short RNA-Seq reads using exon-intron boundary, transcription start site (TSS) and poly-A site (PAS) information. We first formulate the relationship among exons, isoforms, and single-end reads as a convex quadratic program, and then use an efficient algorithm (called IsoInfer) to search for isoforms. IsoInfer can calculate the expression levels of isoforms accurately if all the isoforms are known and infer novel isoforms from scratch. Our experimental tests on known mouse isoforms with both simulated expression levels and reads demonstrate that IsoInfer is able to calculate the expression levels of isoforms with an accuracy comparable to the state-of-the-art statistical method and a 60 times faster speed. Moreover, our tests on both simulated and real reads show that it achieves a good precision and sensitivity in inferring isoforms when given accurate exon-intron boundary, TSS and PAS information, especially for isoforms whose expression levels are significantly high.

  14. Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, Jane M; Langenbrunner, James R; Hemez, Francois M; Ross, Timothy J

    2010-09-30

    We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the

  15. Computationally efficient Bayesian inference for inverse problems.

    SciTech Connect

    Marzouk, Youssef M.; Najm, Habib N.; Rahn, Larry A.

    2007-10-01

    Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and incomplete data, a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, and a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inferred results. Inverse problems - representing indirect estimation of model parameters, inputs, or structural components - can be fruitfully cast in this framework. Complex and computationally intensive forward models arising in physical applications, however, can render a Bayesian approach prohibitive. This difficulty is compounded by high-dimensional model spaces, as when the unknown is a spatiotemporal field. We present new algorithmic developments for Bayesian inference in this context, showing strong connections with the forward propagation of uncertainty. In particular, we introduce a stochastic spectral formulation that dramatically accelerates the Bayesian solution of inverse problems via rapid evaluation of a surrogate posterior. We also explore dimensionality reduction for the inference of spatiotemporal fields, using truncated spectral representations of Gaussian process priors. These new approaches are demonstrated on scalar transport problems arising in contaminant source inversion and in the inference of inhomogeneous material or transport properties. We also present a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in stochastic models, where intrinsic stochasticity may be intermingled with observational noise. Evaluation of a likelihood function may not be analytically tractable in these cases, and thus several alternative Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) schemes, operating on the product space of the observations and the parameters, are introduced.

  16. Reliability of the Granger causality inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Douglas; Zhang, Yaoyu; Xiao, Yanyang; Cai, David

    2014-04-01

    How to characterize information flows in physical, biological, and social systems remains a major theoretical challenge. Granger causality (GC) analysis has been widely used to investigate information flow through causal interactions. We address one of the central questions in GC analysis, that is, the reliability of the GC evaluation and its implications for the causal structures extracted by this analysis. Our work reveals that the manner in which a continuous dynamical process is projected or coarse-grained to a discrete process has a profound impact on the reliability of the GC inference, and different sampling may potentially yield completely opposite inferences. This inference hazard is present for both linear and nonlinear processes. We emphasize that there is a hazard of reaching incorrect conclusions about network topologies, even including statistical (such as small-world or scale-free) properties of the networks, when GC analysis is blindly applied to infer the network topology. We demonstrate this using a small-world network for which a drastic loss of small-world attributes occurs in the reconstructed network using the standard GC approach. We further show how to resolve the paradox that the GC analysis seemingly becomes less reliable when more information is incorporated using finer and finer sampling. Finally, we present strategies to overcome these inference artifacts in order to obtain a reliable GC result.

  17. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference

    PubMed Central

    Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S.

    2016-01-01

    Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme. PMID:27018908

  18. Maximum likelihood inference of reticulate evolutionary histories.

    PubMed

    Yu, Yun; Dong, Jianrong; Liu, Kevin J; Nakhleh, Luay

    2014-11-18

    Hybridization plays an important role in the evolution of certain groups of organisms, adaptation to their environments, and diversification of their genomes. The evolutionary histories of such groups are reticulate, and methods for reconstructing them are still in their infancy and have limited applicability. We present a maximum likelihood method for inferring reticulate evolutionary histories while accounting simultaneously for incomplete lineage sorting. Additionally, we propose methods for assessing confidence in the amount of reticulation and the topology of the inferred evolutionary history. Our method obtains accurate estimates of reticulate evolutionary histories on simulated datasets. Furthermore, our method provides support for a hypothesis of a reticulate evolutionary history inferred from a set of house mouse (Mus musculus) genomes. As evidence of hybridization in eukaryotic groups accumulates, it is essential to have methods that infer reticulate evolutionary histories. The work we present here allows for such inference and provides a significant step toward putting phylogenetic networks on par with phylogenetic trees as a model of capturing evolutionary relationships. PMID:25368173

  19. Scene Construction, Visual Foraging, and Active Inference

    PubMed Central

    Mirza, M. Berk; Adams, Rick A.; Mathys, Christoph D.; Friston, Karl J.

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes an active inference scheme for visual searches and the perceptual synthesis entailed by scene construction. Active inference assumes that perception and action minimize variational free energy, where actions are selected to minimize the free energy expected in the future. This assumption generalizes risk-sensitive control and expected utility theory to include epistemic value; namely, the value (or salience) of information inherent in resolving uncertainty about the causes of ambiguous cues or outcomes. Here, we apply active inference to saccadic searches of a visual scene. We consider the (difficult) problem of categorizing a scene, based on the spatial relationship among visual objects where, crucially, visual cues are sampled myopically through a sequence of saccadic eye movements. This means that evidence for competing hypotheses about the scene has to be accumulated sequentially, calling upon both prediction (planning) and postdiction (memory). Our aim is to highlight some simple but fundamental aspects of the requisite functional anatomy; namely, the link between approximate Bayesian inference under mean field assumptions and functional segregation in the visual cortex. This link rests upon the (neurobiologically plausible) process theory that accompanies the normative formulation of active inference for Markov decision processes. In future work, we hope to use this scheme to model empirical saccadic searches and identify the prior beliefs that underwrite intersubject variability in the way people forage for information in visual scenes (e.g., in schizophrenia). PMID:27378899

  20. Scene Construction, Visual Foraging, and Active Inference.

    PubMed

    Mirza, M Berk; Adams, Rick A; Mathys, Christoph D; Friston, Karl J

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes an active inference scheme for visual searches and the perceptual synthesis entailed by scene construction. Active inference assumes that perception and action minimize variational free energy, where actions are selected to minimize the free energy expected in the future. This assumption generalizes risk-sensitive control and expected utility theory to include epistemic value; namely, the value (or salience) of information inherent in resolving uncertainty about the causes of ambiguous cues or outcomes. Here, we apply active inference to saccadic searches of a visual scene. We consider the (difficult) problem of categorizing a scene, based on the spatial relationship among visual objects where, crucially, visual cues are sampled myopically through a sequence of saccadic eye movements. This means that evidence for competing hypotheses about the scene has to be accumulated sequentially, calling upon both prediction (planning) and postdiction (memory). Our aim is to highlight some simple but fundamental aspects of the requisite functional anatomy; namely, the link between approximate Bayesian inference under mean field assumptions and functional segregation in the visual cortex. This link rests upon the (neurobiologically plausible) process theory that accompanies the normative formulation of active inference for Markov decision processes. In future work, we hope to use this scheme to model empirical saccadic searches and identify the prior beliefs that underwrite intersubject variability in the way people forage for information in visual scenes (e.g., in schizophrenia). PMID:27378899

  1. Hierarchical cosmic shear power spectrum inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alsing, Justin; Heavens, Alan; Jaffe, Andrew H.; Kiessling, Alina; Wandelt, Benjamin; Hoffmann, Till

    2016-02-01

    We develop a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach for cosmic shear power spectrum inference, jointly sampling from the posterior distribution of the cosmic shear field and its (tomographic) power spectra. Inference of the shear power spectrum is a powerful intermediate product for a cosmic shear analysis, since it requires very few model assumptions and can be used to perform inference on a wide range of cosmological models a posteriori without loss of information. We show that joint posterior for the shear map and power spectrum can be sampled effectively by Gibbs sampling, iteratively drawing samples from the map and power spectrum, each conditional on the other. This approach neatly circumvents difficulties associated with complicated survey geometry and masks that plague frequentist power spectrum estimators, since the power spectrum inference provides prior information about the field in masked regions at every sampling step. We demonstrate this approach for inference of tomographic shear E-mode, B-mode and EB-cross power spectra from a simulated galaxy shear catalogue with a number of important features; galaxies distributed on the sky and in redshift with photometric redshift uncertainties, realistic random ellipticity noise for every galaxy and a complicated survey mask. The obtained posterior distributions for the tomographic power spectrum coefficients recover the underlying simulated power spectra for both E- and B-modes.

  2. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.

    PubMed

    Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S

    2016-03-01

    Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme. PMID:27018908

  3. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.

    PubMed

    Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S

    2016-03-01

    Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme.

  4. Inferring learners' knowledge from their actions.

    PubMed

    Rafferty, Anna N; LaMar, Michelle M; Griffiths, Thomas L

    2015-04-01

    Watching another person take actions to complete a goal and making inferences about that person's knowledge is a relatively natural task for people. This ability can be especially important in educational settings, where the inferences can be used for assessment, diagnosing misconceptions, and providing informative feedback. In this paper, we develop a general framework for automatically making such inferences based on observed actions; this framework is particularly relevant for inferring student knowledge in educational games and other interactive virtual environments. Our approach relies on modeling action planning: We formalize the problem as a Markov decision process in which one must choose what actions to take to complete a goal, where choices will be dependent on one's beliefs about how actions affect the environment. We use a variation of inverse reinforcement learning to infer these beliefs. Through two lab experiments, we show that this model can recover people's beliefs in a simple environment, with accuracy comparable to that of human observers. We then demonstrate that the model can be used to provide real-time feedback and to model data from an existing educational game.

  5. Inferring learners' knowledge from their actions.

    PubMed

    Rafferty, Anna N; LaMar, Michelle M; Griffiths, Thomas L

    2015-04-01

    Watching another person take actions to complete a goal and making inferences about that person's knowledge is a relatively natural task for people. This ability can be especially important in educational settings, where the inferences can be used for assessment, diagnosing misconceptions, and providing informative feedback. In this paper, we develop a general framework for automatically making such inferences based on observed actions; this framework is particularly relevant for inferring student knowledge in educational games and other interactive virtual environments. Our approach relies on modeling action planning: We formalize the problem as a Markov decision process in which one must choose what actions to take to complete a goal, where choices will be dependent on one's beliefs about how actions affect the environment. We use a variation of inverse reinforcement learning to infer these beliefs. Through two lab experiments, we show that this model can recover people's beliefs in a simple environment, with accuracy comparable to that of human observers. We then demonstrate that the model can be used to provide real-time feedback and to model data from an existing educational game. PMID:25155381

  6. Children's and Adults' Judgments of the Certainty of Deductive Inferences, Inductive Inferences, and Guesses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pillow, Bradford H.; Pearson, RaeAnne M.; Hecht, Mary; Bremer, Amanda

    2010-01-01

    Children and adults rated their own certainty following inductive inferences, deductive inferences, and guesses. Beginning in kindergarten, participants rated deductions as more certain than weak inductions or guesses. Deductions were rated as more certain than strong inductions beginning in Grade 3, and fourth-grade children and adults…

  7. An overview of chemosynthetic symbioses in bivalves from the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duperron, S.; Gaudron, S. M.; Rodrigues, C. F.; Cunha, M. R.; Decker, C.; Olu, K.

    2012-11-01

    Deep-sea bivalves found at hydrothermal vents, cold seeps and organic falls are sustained by chemosynthetic bacteria which ensure part or all of their carbon nutrition. These symbioses are of prime importance for the functioning of the ecosystems. Similar symbioses occur in other bivalve species living in shallow and coastal reduced habitats worldwide. In recent years, several deep-sea species have been investigated from continental margins around Europe, West Africa, East America, the Gulf of Mexico, and from hydrothermal vents on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. In parallel, numerous more easily accessible shallow marine species were studied. We here provide a summary of the current knowledge available on chemosymbiotic bivalves in the area ranging west-to-east from the Gulf of Mexico to Marmara Sea, and north-to-south from the Arctic to the Gulf of Guinea. Characteristics of symbioses in 51 species from the area are summarized for each of the five bivalve families documented to harbor chemosynthetic symbionts (Mytilidae, Vesicomyidae, Solemyidae, Thyasiridae and Lucinidae), and compared among families with special emphasis on ecology, life cycle, and connectivity. Chemosynthetic symbioses are a major adaptation to ecosystems and habitats exposed to reducing conditions, yet relatively little is known regarding their diversity and functioning apart from a few "model species" on which effort has focused over the last 30 yr. In the context of increasing concern about biodiversity and ecosystems, and increasing anthropogenic pressure on Oceans, we advocate for a better assessment of bivalve symbioses diversity in order to evaluate the capacities of these remarkable ecological and evolutionary units to withstand environmental change

  8. An overview of chemosynthetic symbioses in bivalves from the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duperron, S.; Gaudron, S. M.; Rodrigues, C. F.; Cunha, M. R.; Decker, C.; Olu, K.

    2013-05-01

    Deep-sea bivalves found at hydrothermal vents, cold seeps and organic falls are sustained by chemosynthetic bacteria that ensure part or all of their carbon nutrition. These symbioses are of prime importance for the functioning of the ecosystems. Similar symbioses occur in other bivalve species living in shallow and coastal reduced habitats worldwide. In recent years, several deep-sea species have been investigated from continental margins around Europe, West Africa, eastern Americas, the Gulf of Mexico, and from hydrothermal vents on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. In parallel, numerous, more easily accessible shallow marine species have been studied. Herein we provide a summary of the current knowledge available on chemosymbiotic bivalves in the area ranging west-to-east from the Gulf of Mexico to the Sea of Marmara, and north-to-south from the Arctic to the Gulf of Guinea. Characteristics of symbioses in 53 species from the area are summarized for each of the five bivalve families documented to harbor chemosynthetic symbionts (Mytilidae, Vesicomyidae, Solemyidae, Thyasiridae and Lucinidae). Comparisons are made between the families, with special emphasis on ecology, life cycle, and connectivity. Chemosynthetic symbioses are a major adaptation to ecosystems and habitats exposed to reducing conditions. However, relatively little is known regarding their diversity and functioning, apart from a few "model species" on which effort has focused over the last 30 yr. In the context of increasing concern about biodiversity and ecosystems, and increasing anthropogenic pressure on oceans, we advocate a better assessment of the diversity of bivalve symbioses in order to evaluate the capacities of these remarkable ecological and evolutionary units to withstand environmental change.

  9. Upwelling in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean inferred from helium isotope disequilibrium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buß, A.; Huhn, O.; Sültenfuß, J.; Rhein, M.

    2012-04-01

    Upwelling plays an important role regarding the physical and biogeochemical characteristics of the mixed layer, and it may also counteract the uptake of atmospheric gases like CO2. However, estimates of upwelling velocities are rare, particularly in the Southern Ocean. Since upwelling velocities are too small to be measured directly - in the order of a few meters per day - an indirect method to infer upwelling velocities from the helium isotope disequilibrium in the mixed layer is applied here instead. The main source of 3He to the ocean is hydrothermal venting and thus a significant excess of 3He in the mixed layer can only be maintained by vertical motion. Helium isotope data - measured from 1986 to 2009 - in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and the Weddell Sea shows a significant excess of 3He in the mixed layer from which upwelling velocities will be inferred. Here, first results of upwelling estimates inferred from helium isotope disequilibria in the ACC and the Weddell Sea will be presented.

  10. Using Alien Coins to Test Whether Simple Inference Is Bayesian

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E.; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D.

    2016-01-01

    Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we…

  11. Dynamical inference of hidden biological populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luchinsky, D. G.; Smelyanskiy, V. N.; Millonas, M.; McClintock, P. V. E.

    2008-10-01

    Population fluctuations in a predator-prey system are analyzed for the case where the number of prey could be determined, subject to measurement noise, but the number of predators was unknown. The problem of how to infer the unmeasured predator dynamics, as well as the model parameters, is addressed. Two solutions are suggested. In the first of these, measurement noise and the dynamical noise in the equation for predator population are neglected; the problem is reduced to a one-dimensional case, and a Bayesian dynamical inference algorithm is employed to reconstruct the model parameters. In the second solution a full-scale Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to infer both the unknown predator trajectory, and also the model parameters, using the one-dimensional solution as an initial guess.

  12. A Learning Algorithm for Multimodal Grammar Inference.

    PubMed

    D'Ulizia, A; Ferri, F; Grifoni, P

    2011-12-01

    The high costs of development and maintenance of multimodal grammars in integrating and understanding input in multimodal interfaces lead to the investigation of novel algorithmic solutions in automating grammar generation and in updating processes. Many algorithms for context-free grammar inference have been developed in the natural language processing literature. An extension of these algorithms toward the inference of multimodal grammars is necessary for multimodal input processing. In this paper, we propose a novel grammar inference mechanism that allows us to learn a multimodal grammar from its positive samples of multimodal sentences. The algorithm first generates the multimodal grammar that is able to parse the positive samples of sentences and, afterward, makes use of two learning operators and the minimum description length metrics in improving the grammar description and in avoiding the over-generalization problem. The experimental results highlight the acceptable performances of the algorithm proposed in this paper since it has a very high probability of parsing valid sentences.

  13. Inferences from counterfactual threats and promises.

    PubMed

    Egan, Suzanne M; Byrne, Ruth M J

    2012-01-01

    We examine how people understand and reason from counterfactual threats, for example, "if you had hit your sister, I would have grounded you" and counterfactual promises, for example, "if you had tidied your room, I would have given you ice-cream." The first experiment shows that people consider counterfactual threats, but not counterfactual promises, to have the illocutionary force of an inducement. They also make the immediate inference that the action mentioned in the "if" part of the counterfactual threat and promise did not occur. The second experiment shows that people make more negative inferences (modus tollens and denial of the antecedent) than affirmative inferences (modus ponens and affirmation of the consequent) from counterfactual threats and promises, unlike indicative threats and promises. We discuss the implications of the results for theories of the mental representations and cognitive processes that underlie conditional inducements. PMID:22580411

  14. Explanatory Preferences Shape Learning and Inference.

    PubMed

    Lombrozo, Tania

    2016-10-01

    Explanations play an important role in learning and inference. People often learn by seeking explanations, and they assess the viability of hypotheses by considering how well they explain the data. An emerging body of work reveals that both children and adults have strong and systematic intuitions about what constitutes a good explanation, and that these explanatory preferences have a systematic impact on explanation-based processes. In particular, people favor explanations that are simple and broad, with the consequence that engaging in explanation can shape learning and inference by leading people to seek patterns and favor hypotheses that support broad and simple explanations. Given the prevalence of explanation in everyday cognition, understanding explanation is therefore crucial to understanding learning and inference. PMID:27567318

  15. Nonintentional analogical inference in text comprehension.

    PubMed

    Day, Samuel B; Gentner, Dedre

    2007-01-01

    We present findings suggesting that analogical inference processes can play a role in fluent comprehension and interpretation. Participants were found to use information from a prior relationally similar example in understanding the content of a later example, but they reported that they were not aware of having done so. These inference processes were sensitive to structural mappings between the two instances, ruling out explanations based solely on more general kinds of activation, such as priming. Reading speed measures were consistent with the possibility that these inferences had taken place during encoding of the target rather than during the later recognition test. These findings suggest that analogical mapping, though often viewed as an explicit deliberative process, can sometimes operate without intent or even awareness.

  16. Consumer psychology: categorization, inferences, affect, and persuasion.

    PubMed

    Loken, Barbara

    2006-01-01

    This chapter reviews research on consumer psychology with emphasis on the topics of categorization, inferences, affect, and persuasion. The chapter reviews theory-based empirical research during the period 1994-2004. Research on categorization includes empirical research on brand categories, goals as organizing frameworks and motivational bases for judgments, and self-based processing. Research on inferences includes numerous types of inferences that are cognitively and/or experienced based. Research on affect includes the effects of mood on processing and cognitive and noncognitive bases for attitudes and intentions. Research on persuasion focuses heavily on the moderating role of elaboration and dual-process models, and includes research on attitude strength responses, advertising responses, and negative versus positive evaluative dimensions.

  17. Colorful Underwater Sea Creatures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCutcheon, Heather

    2011-01-01

    In this article, the author describes a project wherein students created colorful underwater sea creatures. This project began with a discussion about underwater sea creatures and how they live. The first step was making the multi-colored tissue paper that would become sea creatures and seaweed. Once students had the shapes of their sea creatures…

  18. A formal model of interpersonal inference

    PubMed Central

    Moutoussis, Michael; Trujillo-Barreto, Nelson J.; El-Deredy, Wael; Dolan, Raymond J.; Friston, Karl J.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: We propose that active Bayesian inference—a general framework for decision-making—can equally be applied to interpersonal exchanges. Social cognition, however, entails special challenges. We address these challenges through a novel formulation of a formal model and demonstrate its psychological significance. Method: We review relevant literature, especially with regards to interpersonal representations, formulate a mathematical model and present a simulation study. The model accommodates normative models from utility theory and places them within the broader setting of Bayesian inference. Crucially, we endow people's prior beliefs, into which utilities are absorbed, with preferences of self and others. The simulation illustrates the model's dynamics and furnishes elementary predictions of the theory. Results: (1) Because beliefs about self and others inform both the desirability and plausibility of outcomes, in this framework interpersonal representations become beliefs that have to be actively inferred. This inference, akin to “mentalizing” in the psychological literature, is based upon the outcomes of interpersonal exchanges. (2) We show how some well-known social-psychological phenomena (e.g., self-serving biases) can be explained in terms of active interpersonal inference. (3) Mentalizing naturally entails Bayesian updating of how people value social outcomes. Crucially this includes inference about one's own qualities and preferences. Conclusion: We inaugurate a Bayes optimal framework for modeling intersubject variability in mentalizing during interpersonal exchanges. Here, interpersonal representations are endowed with explicit functional and affective properties. We suggest the active inference framework lends itself to the study of psychiatric conditions where mentalizing is distorted. PMID:24723872

  19. Declarative memory, awareness, and transitive inference.

    PubMed

    Smith, Christine; Squire, Larry R

    2005-11-01

    A characteristic usually attributed to declarative memory is that what is learned is accessible to awareness. Recently, the relationship between awareness and declarative (hippocampus-dependent) memory has been questioned on the basis of findings from transitive inference tasks. In transitive inference, participants are first trained on overlapping pairs of items (e.g., A+B-, B+C-, C+D-, and D+E-, where + and - indicate correct and incorrect choices). Later, participants who choose B over D when presented with the novel pair BD are said to demonstrate transitive inference. The ability to exhibit transitive inference is thought to depend on the fact that participants have represented the stimulus elements hierarchically (i.e., A>B>C>D>E). We found that performance on five-item and six-item transitive inference tasks was closely related to awareness of the hierarchical relationship among the elements of the training pairs. Participants who were aware of the hierarchy performed near 100% correct on all tests of transitivity, but participants who were unaware of the hierarchy performed poorly (e.g., on transitive pair BD in the five-item problem; on transitive pairs BD, BE, and CE in the six-item problem). When the five-item task was administered to memory-impaired patients with damage thought to be limited to the hippocampal region, the patients were impaired at learning the training pairs. All patients were unaware of the hierarchy and, like unaware controls, performed poorly on the BD pair. The findings indicate that awareness is critical for robust performance on tests of transitive inference and support the view that awareness of what is learned is a fundamental characteristic of declarative memory.

  20. Gene-network inference by message passing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braunstein, A.; Pagnani, A.; Weigt, M.; Zecchina, R.

    2008-01-01

    The inference of gene-regulatory processes from gene-expression data belongs to the major challenges of computational systems biology. Here we address the problem from a statistical-physics perspective and develop a message-passing algorithm which is able to infer sparse, directed and combinatorial regulatory mechanisms. Using the replica technique, the algorithmic performance can be characterized analytically for artificially generated data. The algorithm is applied to genome-wide expression data of baker's yeast under various environmental conditions. We find clear cases of combinatorial control, and enrichment in common functional annotations of regulated genes and their regulators.

  1. Beaufort Sea: information update

    SciTech Connect

    Becker, P.R.

    1988-04-01

    The report is based on a multi-disciplinary meeting held March 6-7, 1985, as part of preparations for the Beaufort Sea Sale 97. The chapters are based on presentations given: The causeway effect: Modification of nearshore thermal regime resulting from causeways; Summertime sea ice intrusions in the Chukchi Sea; The deepwater limit of ice gouging on the Beaufort Sea shelf; Distribution, abundance, migration, harvest, and stock identity of Belukha Whales in the Beaufort Sea; Ringed seals in the Beaufort Sea; Beaufort Sea socioeconomics; The Baffin Island Oil Spill, (BIOS) Project.

  2. Timescales alter the inferred strength and temporal consistency of intraspecific diet specialization

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Novak, Mark; Tinker, M. Tim

    2015-01-01

    Many populations consist of individuals that differ substantially in their diets. Quantification of the magnitude and temporal consistency of such intraspecific diet variation is needed to understand its importance, but the extent to which different approaches for doing so reflect instantaneous vs. time-aggregated measures of individual diets may bias inferences. We used direct observations of sea otter individuals (Enhydra lutris nereis) to assess how: (1) the timescale of sampling, (2) under-sampling, and (3) the incidence- vs. frequency-based consideration of prey species affect the inferred strength and consistency of intraspecific diet variation. Analyses of feeding observations aggregated over hourly to annual intervals revealed a substantial bias associated with time aggregation that decreases the inferred magnitude of specialization and increases the inferred consistency of individuals’ diets. Time aggregation also made estimates of specialization more sensitive to the consideration of prey frequency, which decreased estimates relative to the use of prey incidence; time aggregation did not affect the extent to which under-sampling contributed to its overestimation. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of studying intraspecific diet variation with an explicit consideration of time and thereby suggest guidelines for future empirical efforts. Failure to consider time will likely produce inconsistent predictions regarding the effects of intraspecific variation on predator–prey interactions.

  3. Timescales alter the inferred strength and temporal consistency of intraspecific diet specialization.

    PubMed

    Novak, Mark; Tinker, M Tim

    2015-05-01

    Many populations consist of individuals that differ substantially in their diets. Quantification of the magnitude and temporal consistency of such intraspecific diet variation is needed to understand its importance, but the extent to which different approaches for doing so reflect instantaneous vs. time-aggregated measures of individual diets may bias inferences. We used direct observations of sea otter individuals (Enhydra lutris nereis) to assess how: (1) the timescale of sampling, (2) under-sampling, and (3) the incidence- vs. frequency-based consideration of prey species affect the inferred strength and consistency of intraspecific diet variation. Analyses of feeding observations aggregated over hourly to annual intervals revealed a substantial bias associated with time aggregation that decreases the inferred magnitude of specialization and increases the inferred consistency of individuals' diets. Time aggregation also made estimates of specialization more sensitive to the consideration of prey frequency, which decreased estimates relative to the use of prey incidence; time aggregation did not affect the extent to which under-sampling contributed to its overestimation. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of studying intraspecific diet variation with an explicit consideration of time and thereby suggest guidelines for future empirical efforts. Failure to consider time will likely produce inconsistent predictions regarding the effects of intraspecific variation on predator-prey interactions. PMID:25656583

  4. GeoSEA: Geodetic Earthquake Observatory on the Seafloor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kopp, Heidrun; Lange, Dietrich; Flueh, Ernst R.; Petersen, Florian; Behrmann, Jan-Hinrich; Devey, Colin

    2014-05-01

    monitor station settlement in two horizontal directions. Data can be acquired and recorded autonomously subsea without system or human intervention for up to 6 years. These data can then be recovered via the integrated high-speed acoustic telemetry link without recovering the seafloor units. When requested to do so, the stored data will be transmitted wirelessly up to the sea surface to the GeoSURF wave glider for onward transmission via a satellite link. Targets for GeoSEA are the marine sector of the North Anatolian fault zone in the Marmara Sea, where a joint French-German array will be installed in late 2014 as well as the central sector of the South America - Nazca convergent plate boundary along the Iquique segment, offshore Northern Chile. Here, the GeoSEA array will be installed in late 2015 to monitor crustal deformation. Mobile autonomous seafloor arrays for continuous measurement of active seafloor deformation in hazard zones have the potential to lead to transformative discoveries of plate boundary/fault zone tectonic processes and address a novel element of marine geophysical research.

  5. Statistical inference for serial dilution assay data.

    PubMed

    Lee, M L; Whitmore, G A

    1999-12-01

    Serial dilution assays are widely employed for estimating substance concentrations and minimum inhibitory concentrations. The Poisson-Bernoulli model for such assays is appropriate for count data but not for continuous measurements that are encountered in applications involving substance concentrations. This paper presents practical inference methods based on a log-normal model and illustrates these methods using a case application involving bacterial toxins.

  6. Pediatric Pain, Predictive Inference, and Sensitivity Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weiss, Robert

    1994-01-01

    Coping style and effects of counseling intervention on pain tolerance was studied for 61 elementary school students through immersion of hands in cold water. Bayesian predictive inference tools are able to distinguish between subject characteristics and manipulable treatments. Sensitivity analysis strengthens the certainty of conclusions about…

  7. Evolutionary inference via the Poisson Indel Process.

    PubMed

    Bouchard-Côté, Alexandre; Jordan, Michael I

    2013-01-22

    We address the problem of the joint statistical inference of phylogenetic trees and multiple sequence alignments from unaligned molecular sequences. This problem is generally formulated in terms of string-valued evolutionary processes along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. The classic evolutionary process, the TKF91 model [Thorne JL, Kishino H, Felsenstein J (1991) J Mol Evol 33(2):114-124] is a continuous-time Markov chain model composed of insertion, deletion, and substitution events. Unfortunately, this model gives rise to an intractable computational problem: The computation of the marginal likelihood under the TKF91 model is exponential in the number of taxa. In this work, we present a stochastic process, the Poisson Indel Process (PIP), in which the complexity of this computation is reduced to linear. The Poisson Indel Process is closely related to the TKF91 model, differing only in its treatment of insertions, but it has a global characterization as a Poisson process on the phylogeny. Standard results for Poisson processes allow key computations to be decoupled, which yields the favorable computational profile of inference under the PIP model. We present illustrative experiments in which Bayesian inference under the PIP model is compared with separate inference of phylogenies and alignments.

  8. Investigating Mathematics Teachers' Thoughts of Statistical Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Kai-Lin

    2012-01-01

    Research on statistical cognition and application suggests that statistical inference concepts are commonly misunderstood by students and even misinterpreted by researchers. Although some research has been done on students' misunderstanding or misconceptions of confidence intervals (CIs), few studies explore either students' or mathematics…

  9. Causal Inferences in the Campbellian Validity System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lund, Thorleif

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of the present paper is to critically examine causal inferences and internal validity as defined by Campbell and co-workers. Several arguments are given against their counterfactual effect definition, and this effect definition should be considered inadequate for causal research in general. Moreover, their defined independence between…

  10. Campbell's and Rubin's Perspectives on Causal Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    West, Stephen G.; Thoemmes, Felix

    2010-01-01

    Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…

  11. Double jeopardy in inferring cognitive processes.

    PubMed

    Fific, Mario

    2014-01-01

    Inferences we make about underlying cognitive processes can be jeopardized in two ways due to problematic forms of aggregation. First, averaging across individuals is typically considered a very useful tool for removing random variability. The threat is that averaging across subjects leads to averaging across different cognitive strategies, thus harming our inferences. The second threat comes from the construction of inadequate research designs possessing a low diagnostic accuracy of cognitive processes. For that reason we introduced the systems factorial technology (SFT), which has primarily been designed to make inferences about underlying processing order (serial, parallel, coactive), stopping rule (terminating, exhaustive), and process dependency. SFT proposes that the minimal research design complexity to learn about n number of cognitive processes should be equal to 2 (n) . In addition, SFT proposes that (a) each cognitive process should be controlled by a separate experimental factor, and (b) The saliency levels of all factors should be combined in a full factorial design. In the current study, the author cross combined the levels of jeopardies in a 2 × 2 analysis, leading to four different analysis conditions. The results indicate a decline in the diagnostic accuracy of inferences made about cognitive processes due to the presence of each jeopardy in isolation and when combined. The results warrant the development of more individual subject analyses and the utilization of full-factorial (SFT) experimental designs.

  12. Preschoolers Infer Ownership from "Control of Permission"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neary, Karen R.; Friedman, Ori; Burnstein, Corinna L.

    2009-01-01

    Owners control permission--they forbid and permit others to use their property. So it is reasonable to assume that someone controlling permission over an object is its owner. The authors tested whether preschoolers infer ownership in this way. In the first experiment, 4- and 5-year-olds, but not 3-year-olds, chose as owner of an object a character…

  13. Tactile length contraction as Bayesian inference.

    PubMed

    Tong, Jonathan; Ngo, Vy; Goldreich, Daniel

    2016-08-01

    To perceive, the brain must interpret stimulus-evoked neural activity. This is challenging: The stochastic nature of the neural response renders its interpretation inherently uncertain. Perception would be optimized if the brain used Bayesian inference to interpret inputs in light of expectations derived from experience. Bayesian inference would improve perception on average but cause illusions when stimuli violate expectation. Intriguingly, tactile, auditory, and visual perception are all prone to length contraction illusions, characterized by the dramatic underestimation of the distance between punctate stimuli delivered in rapid succession; the origin of these illusions has been mysterious. We previously proposed that length contraction illusions occur because the brain interprets punctate stimulus sequences using Bayesian inference with a low-velocity expectation. A novel prediction of our Bayesian observer model is that length contraction should intensify if stimuli are made more difficult to localize. Here we report a tactile psychophysical study that tested this prediction. Twenty humans compared two distances on the forearm: a fixed reference distance defined by two taps with 1-s temporal separation and an adjustable comparison distance defined by two taps with temporal separation t ≤ 1 s. We observed significant length contraction: As t was decreased, participants perceived the two distances as equal only when the comparison distance was made progressively greater than the reference distance. Furthermore, the use of weaker taps significantly enhanced participants' length contraction. These findings confirm the model's predictions, supporting the view that the spatiotemporal percept is a best estimate resulting from a Bayesian inference process.

  14. Phylogeny and the inference of evolutionary trajectories.

    PubMed

    Hancock, Lillian; Edwards, Erika J

    2014-07-01

    Most important organismal adaptations are not actually single traits, but complex trait syndromes that are evolutionarily integrated into a single emergent phenotype. Two alternative photosynthetic pathways, C4 photosynthesis and crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM), are primary plant adaptations of this sort, each requiring multiple biochemical and anatomical modifications. Phylogenetic methods are a promising approach for teasing apart the order of character acquisition during the evolution of complex traits, and the phylogenetic placement of intermediate phenotypes as sister taxa to fully optimized syndromes has been taken as good evidence of an 'ordered' evolutionary trajectory. But how much power does the phylogenetic approach have to detect ordered evolution? This study simulated ordered and unordered character evolution across a diverse set of phylogenetic trees to understand how tree size, models of evolution, and sampling efforts influence the ability to detect an evolutionary trajectory. The simulations show that small trees (15 taxa) do not contain enough information to correctly infer either an ordered or unordered trajectory, although inference improves as tree size and sampling increases. However, even when working with a 1000-taxon tree, the possibility of inferring the incorrect evolutionary model (type I/type II error) remains. Caution is needed when interpreting the phylogenetic placement of intermediate phenotypes, especially in small lineages. Such phylogenetic patterns can provide a line of evidence for the existence of a particular evolutionary trajectory, but they should be coupled with other types of data to infer the stepwise evolution of a complex character trait.

  15. John Updike and Norman Mailer: Sport Inferences.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Upshaw, Kathryn Jane

    The phenomenon of writer use of sport inferences in the literary genre of the novel is examined in the works of Updike and Mailer. Novels of both authors were reviewed in order to study the pattern of usage in each novel. From these patterns, concepts which illustrated the sport philosophies of each author were used for general comparisons of the…

  16. Model averaging, optimal inference, and habit formation

    PubMed Central

    FitzGerald, Thomas H. B.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Friston, Karl J.

    2014-01-01

    Postulating that the brain performs approximate Bayesian inference generates principled and empirically testable models of neuronal function—the subject of much current interest in neuroscience and related disciplines. Current formulations address inference and learning under some assumed and particular model. In reality, organisms are often faced with an additional challenge—that of determining which model or models of their environment are the best for guiding behavior. Bayesian model averaging—which says that an agent should weight the predictions of different models according to their evidence—provides a principled way to solve this problem. Importantly, because model evidence is determined by both the accuracy and complexity of the model, optimal inference requires that these be traded off against one another. This means an agent's behavior should show an equivalent balance. We hypothesize that Bayesian model averaging plays an important role in cognition, given that it is both optimal and realizable within a plausible neuronal architecture. We outline model averaging and how it might be implemented, and then explore a number of implications for brain and behavior. In particular, we propose that model averaging can explain a number of apparently suboptimal phenomena within the framework of approximate (bounded) Bayesian inference, focusing particularly upon the relationship between goal-directed and habitual behavior. PMID:25018724

  17. Quasi-Experimental Designs for Causal Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Yongnam; Steiner, Peter

    2016-01-01

    When randomized experiments are infeasible, quasi-experimental designs can be exploited to evaluate causal treatment effects. The strongest quasi-experimental designs for causal inference are regression discontinuity designs, instrumental variable designs, matching and propensity score designs, and comparative interrupted time series designs. This…

  18. What Children Infer from Social Categories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diesendruck, Gil; Eldror, Ehud

    2011-01-01

    Children hold the belief that social categories have essences. We investigated what kinds of properties children feel licensed to infer about a person based on social category membership. Seventy-two 4-6-year-olds were introduced to novel social categories defined as having one internal--psychological or biological--and one external--behavioral or…

  19. Decision generation tools and Bayesian inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jannson, Tomasz; Wang, Wenjian; Forrester, Thomas; Kostrzewski, Andrew; Veeris, Christian; Nielsen, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Digital Decision Generation (DDG) tools are important software sub-systems of Command and Control (C2) systems and technologies. In this paper, we present a special type of DDGs based on Bayesian Inference, related to adverse (hostile) networks, including such important applications as terrorism-related networks and organized crime ones.

  20. Interest, Inferences, and Learning from Texts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clinton, Virginia; van den Broek, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Topic interest and learning from texts have been found to be positively associated with each other. However, the reason for this positive association is not well understood. The purpose of this study is to examine a cognitive process, inference generation, that could explain the positive association between interest and learning from texts. In…

  1. Inverse Ising inference with correlated samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obermayer, Benedikt; Levine, Erel

    2014-12-01

    Correlations between two variables of a high-dimensional system can be indicative of an underlying interaction, but can also result from indirect effects. Inverse Ising inference is a method to distinguish one from the other. Essentially, the parameters of the least constrained statistical model are learned from the observed correlations such that direct interactions can be separated from indirect correlations. Among many other applications, this approach has been helpful for protein structure prediction, because residues which interact in the 3D structure often show correlated substitutions in a multiple sequence alignment. In this context, samples used for inference are not independent but share an evolutionary history on a phylogenetic tree. Here, we discuss the effects of correlations between samples on global inference. Such correlations could arise due to phylogeny but also via other slow dynamical processes. We present a simple analytical model to address the resulting inference biases, and develop an exact method accounting for background correlations in alignment data by combining phylogenetic modeling with an adaptive cluster expansion algorithm. We find that popular reweighting schemes are only marginally effective at removing phylogenetic bias, suggest a rescaling strategy that yields better results, and provide evidence that our conclusions carry over to the frequently used mean-field approach to the inverse Ising problem.

  2. Linguistic Markers of Inference Generation While Reading

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clinton, Virginia; Carlson, Sarah E.; Seipel, Ben

    2016-01-01

    Words can be informative linguistic markers of psychological constructs. The purpose of this study is to examine associations between word use and the process of making meaningful connections to a text while reading (i.e., inference generation). To achieve this purpose, think-aloud data from third-fifth grade students (N = 218) reading narrative…

  3. Double jeopardy in inferring cognitive processes

    PubMed Central

    Fific, Mario

    2014-01-01

    Inferences we make about underlying cognitive processes can be jeopardized in two ways due to problematic forms of aggregation. First, averaging across individuals is typically considered a very useful tool for removing random variability. The threat is that averaging across subjects leads to averaging across different cognitive strategies, thus harming our inferences. The second threat comes from the construction of inadequate research designs possessing a low diagnostic accuracy of cognitive processes. For that reason we introduced the systems factorial technology (SFT), which has primarily been designed to make inferences about underlying processing order (serial, parallel, coactive), stopping rule (terminating, exhaustive), and process dependency. SFT proposes that the minimal research design complexity to learn about n number of cognitive processes should be equal to 2n. In addition, SFT proposes that (a) each cognitive process should be controlled by a separate experimental factor, and (b) The saliency levels of all factors should be combined in a full factorial design. In the current study, the author cross combined the levels of jeopardies in a 2 × 2 analysis, leading to four different analysis conditions. The results indicate a decline in the diagnostic accuracy of inferences made about cognitive processes due to the presence of each jeopardy in isolation and when combined. The results warrant the development of more individual subject analyses and the utilization of full-factorial (SFT) experimental designs. PMID:25374545

  4. Permutation inference for the general linear model

    PubMed Central

    Winkler, Anderson M.; Ridgway, Gerard R.; Webster, Matthew A.; Smith, Stephen M.; Nichols, Thomas E.

    2014-01-01

    Permutation methods can provide exact control of false positives and allow the use of non-standard statistics, making only weak assumptions about the data. With the availability of fast and inexpensive computing, their main limitation would be some lack of flexibility to work with arbitrary experimental designs. In this paper we report on results on approximate permutation methods that are more flexible with respect to the experimental design and nuisance variables, and conduct detailed simulations to identify the best method for settings that are typical for imaging research scenarios. We present a generic framework for permutation inference for complex general linear models (glms) when the errors are exchangeable and/or have a symmetric distribution, and show that, even in the presence of nuisance effects, these permutation inferences are powerful while providing excellent control of false positives in a wide range of common and relevant imaging research scenarios. We also demonstrate how the inference on glm parameters, originally intended for independent data, can be used in certain special but useful cases in which independence is violated. Detailed examples of common neuroimaging applications are provided, as well as a complete algorithm – the “randomise” algorithm – for permutation inference with the glm. PMID:24530839

  5. Microwave remote sensing of sea ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Comiso, J. C.

    1988-01-01

    The long term objectives are: (1) to understand the physics of the multispectral microwave radiative characteristics of sea ice as it goes through different phases; (2) to improve characterization of sea ice cover using satellite microwave sensors; and (3) to study ice/ocean physical and biological processes associated with polynya formations and variability of the marginal sea ice region. Two field experiments were conducted to pursue these objectives. One involved measurements of radiative and physical characteristics of sea ice from a ship during a 3-month long cruise through the Weddell Sea ice pack during the Austral winter of 1986. The other involved similar measurements from two aircrafts and a submarine over the Central Arctic and Greenland Sea region. Preliminary results have already led to an enhanced understanding of the microwave signatures of pancake ice, nilas, first year ice, multiyear ice and effects of snow cover. Coastal and deep ocean polynyas and their role in bottom water formation and ocean circulation were studied using a time series of ice images from SMMR. An unsupervised cluster analysis of Arctic sea ice using SMMR and THIR emissivity and brightness temperature data was implemented. The analysis indicates the existence of several unique and persistent clusters in the Central Arctic region during winter and that the sum of the area of these clusters excluding those of first year ice is about 20 percent less than minimum ice cover area inferred from a previous summer data. This result is consistent with saline surface for some multiyear ice floes as observed during MIZEZ and suggests that a significant fraction of multiyear ice floes in the Arctic have first year ice signatures.

  6. Reliability of inferred age, and coincidence between inferred age and chronological age.

    PubMed

    Kataoka, J; Ohara, S; Shibata, S; Maie, K

    1996-06-01

    Outdoor research is restricted by many factors. The age inference was one of the biggest problems for the outdoor researchers. We have investigated the reliability of inferred age for the Japanese people, and took out the estimation formula for the age, even if it was based on the inferred age. The age classification was the most popular method for this purpose, and there were many classifications. We took the classification of young, middle aged, and elderly groups, in which classification of the SDs were rather small, that is, 4, 5, and 7 years for the young, middle aged, and elderly age groups, respectively. PMID:9551138

  7. Computational statistics using the Bayesian Inference Engine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinberg, Martin D.

    2013-09-01

    This paper introduces the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a general parallel, optimized software package for parameter inference and model selection. This package is motivated by the analysis needs of modern astronomical surveys and the need to organize and reuse expensive derived data. The BIE is the first platform for computational statistics designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. Bayesian update is based on the representation of high-dimensional posterior distributions using metric-ball-tree based kernel density estimation. Among its algorithmic offerings, the BIE emphasizes hybrid tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes that robustly sample multimodal posterior distributions in high-dimensional parameter spaces. Moreover, the BIE implements a full persistence or serialization system that stores the full byte-level image of the running inference and previously characterized posterior distributions for later use. Two new algorithms to compute the marginal likelihood from the posterior distribution, developed for and implemented in the BIE, enable model comparison for complex models and data sets. Finally, the BIE was designed to be a collaborative platform for applying Bayesian methodology to astronomy. It includes an extensible object-oriented and easily extended framework that implements every aspect of the Bayesian inference. By providing a variety of statistical algorithms for all phases of the inference problem, a scientist may explore a variety of approaches with a single model and data implementation. Additional technical details and download details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU General Public License.

  8. Inferring late-Holocene climate in the Ecuadorian Andes using a chironomid-based temperature inference model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matthews-Bird, Frazer; Brooks, Stephen J.; Holden, Philip B.; Montoya, Encarni; Gosling, William D.

    2016-06-01

    Presented here is the first chironomid calibration data set for tropical South America. Surface sediments were collected from 59 lakes across Bolivia (15 lakes), Peru (32 lakes), and Ecuador (12 lakes) between 2004 and 2013 over an altitudinal gradient from 150 m above sea level (a.s.l) to 4655 m a.s.l, between 0-17° S and 64-78° W. The study sites cover a mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient of 25 °C. In total, 55 chironomid taxa were identified in the 59 calibration data set lakes. When used as a single explanatory variable, MAT explains 12.9 % of the variance (λ1/λ2 = 1.431). Two inference models were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and Bayesian methods. The best-performing model using conventional statistical methods was a WA (inverse) model (R2jack = 0.890; RMSEPjack = 2.404 °C, RMSEP - root mean squared error of prediction; mean biasjack = -0.017 °C; max biasjack = 4.665 °C). The Bayesian method produced a model with R2jack = 0.909, RMSEPjack = 2.373 °C, mean biasjack = 0.598 °C, and max biasjack = 3.158 °C. Both models were used to infer past temperatures from a ca. 3000-year record from the tropical Andes of Ecuador, Laguna Pindo. Inferred temperatures fluctuated around modern-day conditions but showed significant departures at certain intervals (ca. 1600 cal yr BP; ca. 3000-2500 cal yr BP). Both methods (WA and Bayesian) showed similar patterns of temperature variability; however, the magnitude of fluctuations differed. In general the WA method was more variable and often underestimated Holocene temperatures (by ca. -7 ± 2.5 °C relative to the modern period). The Bayesian method provided temperature anomaly estimates for cool periods that lay within the expected range of the Holocene (ca. -3 ± 3.4 °C). The error associated with both reconstructions is consistent with a constant temperature of 20 °C for the past 3000 years. We would caution, however, against an over-interpretation at this stage. The reconstruction can only

  9. Replacement of multiyear sea ice and changes in the open water season duration in the Beaufort Sea since 2004

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galley, R. J.; Babb, D.; Ogi, M.; Else, B. G. T.; Geilfus, N.-X.; Crabeck, O.; Barber, D. G.; Rysgaard, S.

    2016-03-01

    The last decade has witnessed the nine lowest Arctic September sea ice extents in the observational record. It also forms the most recent third of the long-term trend in that record, which reached -13.4% decade-1 in 2015. While hemispheric analyses paint a compelling picture of sea ice loss across the Arctic, the situation with multiyear ice in the Beaufort Sea is particularly dire. This study was undertaken in light of substantial changes that have occurred in the extent of summer multiyear sea ice in the Arctic inferred from the passive microwave record. To better elucidate these changes at a sub-regional scale, we use data from the Canadian Ice Service archive, the most direct observations of sea ice stage-of-development available. We also build upon the only previous sea ice climatological analysis for Canada's western Arctic region by sea ice stage-of-development that ended in 2004. The annual evolution of sea ice by stage of development in Canada's western Arctic changed dramatically between 1983 and 2014. The rate of these changes and their spatial prevalence were most prominent in the last decade. In summer, total sea ice loss occurred via reductions in old and first-year sea ice over increasingly large areas and over more months per year. Resultant delay of thermodynamic freeze up has increased the annual open water duration in the study region. The winter sea ice cover was increasingly composed of first-year sea ice at the expense of old ice. Breakup timing has not significantly changed in the region.

  10. Monitoring Arctic Sea ice using ERTS imagery. [Bering Sea, Beaufort Sea, Canadian Archipelago, and Greenland Sea

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barnes, J. C.; Bowley, C. J.

    1974-01-01

    Because of the effect of sea ice on the heat balance of the Arctic and because of the expanding economic interest in arctic oil and other minerals, extensive monitoring and further study of sea ice is required. The application of ERTS data for mapping ice is evaluated for several arctic areas, including the Bering Sea, the eastern Beaufort Sea, parts of the Canadian Archipelago, and the Greenland Sea. Interpretive techniques are discussed, and the scales and types of ice features that can be detected are described. For the Bering Sea, a sample of ERTS imagery is compared with visual ice reports and aerial photography from the NASA CV-990 aircraft.

  11. Processing of SeaMARC swath sonar imagery

    SciTech Connect

    Pratson, L.; Malinverno, A.; Edwards, M.; Ryan, W. )

    1990-05-01

    Side-scan swath sonar systems have become an increasingly important means of mapping the sea floor. Two such systems are the deep-towed, high-resolution SeaMARC I sonar, which has a variable swath width of up to 5 km, and the shallow-towed, lower-resolution SeaMARC II sonar, which has a swath width of 10 km. The sea-floor imagery of acoustic backscatter output by the SeaMARC sonars is analogous to aerial photographs and airborne side-looking radar images of continental topography. Geologic interpretation of the sea-floor imagery is greatly facilitated by image processing. Image processing of the digital backscatter data involves removal of noise by median filtering, spatial filtering to remove sonar scans of anomalous intensity, across-track corrections to remove beam patterns caused by nonuniform response of the sonar transducers to changes in incident angle, and contrast enhancement by histogram equalization to maximize the available dynamic range. Correct geologic interpretation requires submarine structural fabrics to be displayed in their proper locations and orientations. Geographic projection of sea-floor imagery is achieved by merging the enhanced imagery with the sonar vehicle navigation and correcting for vehicle attitude. Co-registration of bathymetry with sonar imagery introduces sea-floor relief and permits the imagery to be displayed in three-dimensional perspectives, furthering the ability of the marine geologist to infer the processes shaping formerly hidden subsea terrains.

  12. Beyond the bounds of orthology: functional inference from metagenomic context.

    PubMed

    Vey, Gregory; Moreno-Hagelsieb, Gabriel

    2010-07-01

    The effectiveness of the computational inference of function by genomic context is bounded by the diversity of known microbial genomes. Although metagenomes offer access to previously inaccessible organisms, their fragmentary nature prevents the conventional establishment of orthologous relationships required for reliably predicting functional interactions. We introduce a protocol for the prediction of functional interactions using data sources without information about orthologous relationships. To illustrate this process, we use the Sargasso Sea metagenome to construct a functional interaction network for the Escherichia coli K12 genome. We identify two reliability metrics, target intergenic distance and source interaction count, and apply them to selectively filter the predictions retained to construct the network of functional interactions. The resulting network contains 2297 nodes with 10 072 edges with a positive predictive value of 0.80. The metagenome yielded 8423 functional interactions beyond those found using only the genomic orthologs as a data source. This amounted to a 134% increase in the total number of functional interactions that are predicted by combining the metagenome and the genomic orthologs versus the genomic orthologs alone. In the absence of detectable orthologous relationships it remains feasible to derive a reliable set of predicted functional interactions. This offers a strategy for harnessing other metagenomes and homologs in general. Because metagenomes allow access to previously unreachable microorganisms, this will result in expanding the universe of known functional interactions thus furthering our understanding of functional organization. PMID:20419183

  13. Beyond the bounds of orthology: functional inference from metagenomic context.

    PubMed

    Vey, Gregory; Moreno-Hagelsieb, Gabriel

    2010-07-01

    The effectiveness of the computational inference of function by genomic context is bounded by the diversity of known microbial genomes. Although metagenomes offer access to previously inaccessible organisms, their fragmentary nature prevents the conventional establishment of orthologous relationships required for reliably predicting functional interactions. We introduce a protocol for the prediction of functional interactions using data sources without information about orthologous relationships. To illustrate this process, we use the Sargasso Sea metagenome to construct a functional interaction network for the Escherichia coli K12 genome. We identify two reliability metrics, target intergenic distance and source interaction count, and apply them to selectively filter the predictions retained to construct the network of functional interactions. The resulting network contains 2297 nodes with 10 072 edges with a positive predictive value of 0.80. The metagenome yielded 8423 functional interactions beyond those found using only the genomic orthologs as a data source. This amounted to a 134% increase in the total number of functional interactions that are predicted by combining the metagenome and the genomic orthologs versus the genomic orthologs alone. In the absence of detectable orthologous relationships it remains feasible to derive a reliable set of predicted functional interactions. This offers a strategy for harnessing other metagenomes and homologs in general. Because metagenomes allow access to previously unreachable microorganisms, this will result in expanding the universe of known functional interactions thus furthering our understanding of functional organization.

  14. Tasman Leakage of intermediate waters as inferred from Argo floats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosell-Fieschi, Miquel; Rintoul, Stephen R.; Gourrion, Jeröme; Pelegrí, Josep L.

    2013-10-01

    use Argo float trajectories to infer ocean current velocity at the sea surface and 1000 dbar near Australia. The East Australian Current flows southward along the east coast of Australia at both surface and intermediate levels, but only the intermediate waters leak round the southern tip of Tasmania and cross the Great Australian Bight. We calculate the transport of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) between the southern Australian coast and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) as the velocity at 1000 dbar times the layer thickness. Between March 2006 and December 2012, the Eulerian AAIW transport through 147°E ranges between 0 and 12.0 sverdrup (Sv). The mean Tasman Leakage of intermediate waters from the Pacific Ocean into the Indian Ocean, obtained using all Argo data until March 2013, is 3.8 ± 1.3 Sv. The mean intermediate water transport into the Indian Ocean through 115°E increases to 5.2 ± 1.8 Sv due to contributions from the westward recirculation of ACC waters.

  15. Geoid undulations and gravity anomalies over the Aral Sea, the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea from a combined GEOS-3/SEASAT/GEOSAT altimeter data set

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Au, Andrew Y.; Brown, Richard D.; Welker, Jean E.

    1991-01-01

    Satellite-based altimetric data taken by GOES-3, SEASAT, and GEOSAT over the Aral Sea, the Black Sea, and the Caspian Sea are analyzed and a least squares collocation technique is used to predict the geoid undulations on a 0.25x0.25 deg. grid and to transform these geoid undulations to free air gravity anomalies. Rapp's 180x180 geopotential model is used as the reference surface for the collocation procedure. The result of geoid to gravity transformation is, however, sensitive to the information content of the reference geopotential model used. For example, considerable detailed surface gravity data were incorporated into the reference model over the Black Sea, resulting in a reference model with significant information content at short wavelengths. Thus, estimation of short wavelength gravity anomalies from gridded geoid heights is generally reliable over regions such as the Black Sea, using the conventional collocation technique with local empirical covariance functions. Over regions such as the Caspian Sea, where detailed surface data are generally not incorporated into the reference model, unconventional techniques are needed to obtain reliable gravity anomalies. Based on the predicted gravity anomalies over these inland seas, speculative tectonic structures are identified and geophysical processes are inferred.

  16. Aral Sea basin: a sea dies, a sea also rises.

    PubMed

    Glantz, Michael H

    2007-06-01

    The thesis of this article is quite different from many other theses of papers, books, and articles on the Aral Sea. It is meant to purposely highlight the reality of the situation in Central Asia: the Aral Sea that was once a thriving body of water is no more. That sea is dead. What does exist in its place are the Aral seas: there are in essence three bodies of water, one of which is being purposefully restored and its level is rising (the Little Aral), and two others which are still marginally connected, although they continue to decline in level (the Big Aral West and the Big Aral East). In 1960 the level of the sea was about 53 m above sea level. By 2006 the level had dropped by 23 m to 30 m above sea level. This was not a scenario generated by a computer model. It was a process of environmental degradation played out in real life in a matter of a few decades, primarily as a result of human activities. Despite wishes and words to the contrary, it will take a heroic global effort to save what remains of the Big Aral. It would also take a significant degree of sacrifice by people and governments in the region to restore the Big Aral to an acceptable level, given that the annual rate of flow reaching the Amudarya River delta is less than a 10th of what it was several decades ago. Conferring World Heritage status to the Aral Sea(s) could spark restoration efforts for the Big Aral.

  17. Dopamine, reward learning, and active inference

    PubMed Central

    FitzGerald, Thomas H. B.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Friston, Karl

    2015-01-01

    Temporal difference learning models propose phasic dopamine signaling encodes reward prediction errors that drive learning. This is supported by studies where optogenetic stimulation of dopamine neurons can stand in lieu of actual reward. Nevertheless, a large body of data also shows that dopamine is not necessary for learning, and that dopamine depletion primarily affects task performance. We offer a resolution to this paradox based on an hypothesis that dopamine encodes the precision of beliefs about alternative actions, and thus controls the outcome-sensitivity of behavior. We extend an active inference scheme for solving Markov decision processes to include learning, and show that simulated dopamine dynamics strongly resemble those actually observed during instrumental conditioning. Furthermore, simulated dopamine depletion impairs performance but spares learning, while simulated excitation of dopamine neurons drives reward learning, through aberrant inference about outcome states. Our formal approach provides a novel and parsimonious reconciliation of apparently divergent experimental findings. PMID:26581305

  18. Inference in high-dimensional parameter space.

    PubMed

    O'Hare, Anthony

    2015-11-01

    Model parameter inference has become increasingly popular in recent years in the field of computational epidemiology, especially for models with a large number of parameters. Techniques such as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) or maximum/partial likelihoods are commonly used to infer parameters in phenomenological models that best describe some set of data. These techniques rely on efficient exploration of the underlying parameter space, which is difficult in high dimensions, especially if there are correlations between the parameters in the model that may not be known a priori. The aim of this article is to demonstrate the use of the recently invented Adaptive Metropolis algorithm for exploring parameter space in a practical way through the use of a simple epidemiological model. PMID:26176624

  19. Constructing inferences during narrative text comprehension.

    PubMed

    Graesser, A C; Singer, M; Trabasso, T

    1994-07-01

    The authors describe a constructionist theory that accounts for the knowledge-based inferences that are constructed when readers comprehend narrative text. Readers potentially generate a rich variety of inferences when they construct a referential situation model of what the text is about. The proposed constructionist theory specifies that some, but not all, of this information is constructed under most conditions of comprehension. The distinctive assumptions of the constructionist theory embrace a principle of search (or effort) after meaning. According to this principle, readers attempt to construct a meaning representation that addresses the reader's goals, that is coherent at both local and global levels, and that explains why actions, events, and states are mentioned in the text. This study reviews empirical evidence that addresses this theory and contrasts it with alternative theoretical frameworks. PMID:7938337

  20. An emergent approach to analogical inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thibodeau, Paul H.; Flusberg, Stephen J.; Glick, Jeremy J.; Sternberg, Daniel A.

    2013-03-01

    In recent years, a growing number of researchers have proposed that analogy is a core component of human cognition. According to the dominant theoretical viewpoint, analogical reasoning requires a specific suite of cognitive machinery, including explicitly coded symbolic representations and a mapping or binding mechanism that operates over these representations. Here we offer an alternative approach: we find that analogical inference can emerge naturally and spontaneously from a relatively simple, error-driven learning mechanism without the need to posit any additional analogy-specific machinery. The results also parallel findings from the developmental literature on analogy, demonstrating a shift from an initial reliance on surface feature similarity to the use of relational similarity later in training. Variants of the model allow us to consider and rule out alternative accounts of its performance. We conclude by discussing how these findings can potentially refine our understanding of the processes that are required to perform analogical inference.

  1. Inferring network topology via the propagation process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, An

    2013-11-01

    Inferring the network topology from the dynamics is a fundamental problem, with wide applications in geology, biology, and even counter-terrorism. Based on the propagation process, we present a simple method to uncover the network topology. A numerical simulation on artificial networks shows that our method enjoys a high accuracy in inferring the network topology. We find that the infection rate in the propagation process significantly influences the accuracy, and that each network corresponds to an optimal infection rate. Moreover, the method generally works better in large networks. These finding are confirmed in both real social and nonsocial networks. Finally, the method is extended to directed networks, and a similarity measure specific for directed networks is designed.

  2. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

    2014-03-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

  3. The NIFTY way of Bayesian signal inference

    SciTech Connect

    Selig, Marco

    2014-12-05

    We introduce NIFTY, 'Numerical Information Field Theory', a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTY can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTY as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D{sup 3}PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.

  4. The empirical accuracy of uncertain inference models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vaughan, David S.; Yadrick, Robert M.; Perrin, Bruce M.; Wise, Ben P.

    1987-01-01

    Uncertainty is a pervasive feature of the domains in which expert systems are designed to function. Research design to test uncertain inference methods for accuracy and robustness, in accordance with standard engineering practice is reviewed. Several studies were conducted to assess how well various methods perform on problems constructed so that correct answers are known, and to find out what underlying features of a problem cause strong or weak performance. For each method studied, situations were identified in which performance deteriorates dramatically. Over a broad range of problems, some well known methods do only about as well as a simple linear regression model, and often much worse than a simple independence probability model. The results indicate that some commercially available expert system shells should be used with caution, because the uncertain inference models that they implement can yield rather inaccurate results.

  5. Inference for current leukemia free survival

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Leiyan; Logan, Brent

    2009-01-01

    Donor lymphocyte infusion (DLI) for patients who relapse following an allogeneic stem cell transplant has proved remarkably durable. Because of the potential for second remissions with DLI, the current leukemia free survival (CLFS), which is the probability that a patient has not failed the entire course of the treatment, is becoming of interest to clinical investigators. Based on either a multistate Markov model or a linear combination of Kaplan–Meier estimators, we explore regression models for the CLFS. We focus on the two sample problem and we develop confidence bands for the CLFS or for differences in CLFS as well as a Kolmogorov type hypothesis test using a re-sampling technique. We also examine the use of pseudo-values to make inference on the direct effects of covariates on the CLFS function and we develop a score test for the equality of two CLFS. We illustrate these inference methods on a bone marrow transplant dataset. PMID:18663574

  6. 7 CFR 1437.310 - Sea grass and sea oats.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Sea grass and sea oats. 1437.310 Section 1437.310 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT... Determining Coverage Using Value § 1437.310 Sea grass and sea oats. (a) Sea grass and sea oats are value...

  7. 7 CFR 1437.310 - Sea grass and sea oats.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Sea grass and sea oats. 1437.310 Section 1437.310 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT... Determining Coverage Using Value § 1437.310 Sea grass and sea oats. (a) Sea grass and sea oats are value...

  8. 7 CFR 1437.310 - Sea grass and sea oats.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Sea grass and sea oats. 1437.310 Section 1437.310 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT... Determining Coverage Using Value § 1437.310 Sea grass and sea oats. (a) Sea grass and sea oats are value...

  9. 7 CFR 1437.310 - Sea grass and sea oats.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Sea grass and sea oats. 1437.310 Section 1437.310 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT... Determining Coverage Using Value § 1437.310 Sea grass and sea oats. (a) Sea grass and sea oats are value...

  10. Scalable Probabilistic Inference for Global Seismic Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arora, N. S.; Dear, T.; Russell, S.

    2011-12-01

    We describe a probabilistic generative model for seismic events, their transmission through the earth, and their detection (or mis-detection) at seismic stations. We also describe an inference algorithm that constructs the most probable event bulletin explaining the observed set of detections. The model and inference are called NET-VISA (network processing vertically integrated seismic analysis) and is designed to replace the current automated network processing at the IDC, the SEL3 bulletin. Our results (attached table) demonstrate that NET-VISA significantly outperforms SEL3 by reducing the missed events from 30.3% down to 12.5%. The difference is even more dramatic for smaller magnitude events. NET-VISA has no difficulty in locating nuclear explosions as well. The attached figure demonstrates the location predicted by NET-VISA versus other bulletins for the second DPRK event. Further evaluation on dense regional networks demonstrates that NET-VISA finds many events missed in the LEB bulletin, which is produced by the human analysts. Large aftershock sequences, as produced by the 2004 December Sumatra earthquake and the 2011 March Tohoku earthquake, can pose a significant load for automated processing, often delaying the IDC bulletins by weeks or months. Indeed these sequences can overload the serial NET-VISA inference as well. We describe an enhancement to NET-VISA to make it multi-threaded, and hence take full advantage of the processing power of multi-core and -cpu machines. Our experiments show that the new inference algorithm is able to achieve 80% efficiency in parallel speedup.

  11. Impacts of Terraces on Phylogenetic Inference.

    PubMed

    Sanderson, Michael J; McMahon, Michelle M; Stamatakis, Alexandros; Zwickl, Derrick J; Steel, Mike

    2015-09-01

    Terraces are sets of trees with precisely the same likelihood or parsimony score, which can be induced by missing sequences in partitioned multi-locus phylogenetic data matrices. The potentially large set of trees on a terrace can be characterized by enumeration algorithms or consensus methods that exploit the pattern of partial taxon coverage in the data, independent of the sequence data themselves. Terraces can add ambiguity and complexity to phylogenetic inference, particularly in settings where inference is already challenging: data sets with many taxa and relatively few loci. In this article we present five new findings about terraces and their impacts on phylogenetic inference. First, we clarify assumptions about partitioning scheme model parameters that are necessary for the existence of terraces. Second, we explore the dependence of terrace size on partitioning scheme and indicate how to find the partitioning scheme associated with the largest terrace containing a given tree. Third, we highlight the impact of terrace size on bootstrap estimates of confidence limits in clades, and characterize the surprising result that the bootstrap proportion for a clade, as it is usually calculated, can be entirely determined by the frequency of bipartitions on a terrace, with some bipartitions receiving high support even when incorrect. Fourth, we dissect some effects of prior distributions of edge lengths on the computed posterior probabilities of clades on terraces, to understand an example in which long edges "attract" each other in Bayesian inference. Fifth, we describe how assuming relationships between edge-lengths of different loci, as an attempt to avoid terraces, can also be problematic when taxon coverage is partial, specifically when heterotachy is present. Finally, we discuss strategies for remediation of some of these problems. One promising approach finds a minimal set of taxa which, when deleted from the data matrix, reduces the size of a terrace to a

  12. Nonparametric causal inference for bivariate time series.

    PubMed

    McCracken, James M; Weigel, Robert S

    2016-02-01

    We introduce new quantities for exploratory causal inference between bivariate time series. The quantities, called penchants and leanings, are computationally straightforward to apply, follow directly from assumptions of probabilistic causality, do not depend on any assumed models for the time series generating process, and do not rely on any embedding procedures; these features may provide a clearer interpretation of the results than those from existing time series causality tools. The penchant and leaning are computed based on a structured method for computing probabilities.

  13. Inference---A Python Package for Astrostatistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loredo, T. J.; Connors, A.; Oliphant, T. E.

    2004-08-01

    Python is an object-oriented ``very high level language'' that is easy to learn, actively supported, and freely available for a large variety of computing platforms. It possesses sophisticated scientific computing capabilities thanks to ongoing work by a community of scientists and engineers who maintain a suite of open source scientific packages. Key contributions come from the STScI group maintaining PyRAF, a Python environment for running IRAF tasks. Python's main scientific computing packages are the Numeric and numarray packages implementing efficient array and image processing, and the SciPy package implementing a wide variety of general-use algorithms including optimization, root finding, special functions, numerical integration, and basic statistical tasks. We describe the Inference package, a collection of tools for carrying out advanced astrostatistical analyses that is about to be released as a supplement to SciPy. The Inference package has two main parts. First is a Parametric Inference Engine that offers a unified environment for analysis of parametric models with a variety of methods, including minimum χ2, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods. Several common analysis tasks are available with simple syntax (e.g., optimization, multidimensional exploration and integration, simulation); its parameter syntax is remensicent of that of SHERPA. Second, the package includes a growing library of diverse, specialized astrostatistical methods in a variety of domains including time series, spectrum and survey analysis, and basic image analysis. Where possible, a variety of methods are available for a given problem, enabling users to explore alternative methods in a unified environment, with the guidance of significant documentation. The Inference project is supported by NASA AISRP grant NAG5-12082.

  14. Nonparametric causal inference for bivariate time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCracken, James M.; Weigel, Robert S.

    2016-02-01

    We introduce new quantities for exploratory causal inference between bivariate time series. The quantities, called penchants and leanings, are computationally straightforward to apply, follow directly from assumptions of probabilistic causality, do not depend on any assumed models for the time series generating process, and do not rely on any embedding procedures; these features may provide a clearer interpretation of the results than those from existing time series causality tools. The penchant and leaning are computed based on a structured method for computing probabilities.

  15. Thermodynamics of statistical inference by cells.

    PubMed

    Lang, Alex H; Fisher, Charles K; Mora, Thierry; Mehta, Pankaj

    2014-10-01

    The deep connection between thermodynamics, computation, and information is now well established both theoretically and experimentally. Here, we extend these ideas to show that thermodynamics also places fundamental constraints on statistical estimation and learning. To do so, we investigate the constraints placed by (nonequilibrium) thermodynamics on the ability of biochemical signaling networks to estimate the concentration of an external signal. We show that accuracy is limited by energy consumption, suggesting that there are fundamental thermodynamic constraints on statistical inference.

  16. Centennial-scale paleoceanography during sapropel S1 deposition in the NE Aegean (Mediterranean Sea)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Triantaphyllou, Maria; Gogou, Alexandra; Dimiza, Margarita; Kostopoulou, Sofia; Parinos, Constantine; Roussakis, Grigoris; Geraga, Maria; Skampa, Elisavet; Bouloubassi, Ioanna; Fleitmann, Dominik; Zervakis, Vassilis; Velaoras, Dimitris; Diamantopoulou, Antonia; Sampatakaki, Angeliki; Lykousis, Vassilis

    2016-04-01

    Combined micropaleontological and geochemical analyses in the high-sedimentation gravity core M-4G, provided new centennial scale paleoceanographic data for the sapropel S1 deposition in the NE Aegean Sea. Sapropel layer S1a (10.2-8.0 ka) is deposited in dysoxic to oxic bottom waters; sediments are characterized by the high abundance of benthic foraminifers Chilostomella mediterranensis and Globobulimina affinis that are able to tolerate surface sediment and/or pore water oxygen depletion and the presence of the oxic mesotrophic-eutrophic U. mediterranea. Adequate preservation of organic matter is proven by the high organic carbon and loliolide and isololiolide contents, whereas the biomarker record and the abundances of eutrophic planktonic foraminifera document enhanced productivity. Both alkenone-based SSTs and δO18 G. bulloides records indicate coolings at 8.2 ka (S1a) and at ~7.8 ka (S1 interruption). Sapropelic layer S1b (7.7-6.4 ka) is characterized by rather oxic conditions marked by the prominent increase of U. mediterranea. The highly fluctuating SSTs demonstrate repeated coolings and associated dense water formation; major event at 7.4 ka, followed by cold spells at 7.0, 6.8, 6.5 ka. Besides, the increase of algal biomarkers, labile organic matter-feeding foraminifera and eutrophic planktonic species pinpoints rise in in situ marine productivity, which is enhanced by more efficient vertical convection due to repeated cold events. The associated contributions of labile marine organic matter (OM) along with fresher terrestrial OM inputs after ~7.7 ka BP imply alternative/ additional than the north Aegean riverine borderland sources for the influx of organic matter at the south Limnos Basin, also related to the inflow of highly productive Marmara/Black Sea waters

  17. Evolutionary inferences from the analysis of exchangeability

    PubMed Central

    Hendry, Andrew P.; Kaeuffer, Renaud; Crispo, Erika; Peichel, Catherine L.; Bolnick, Daniel I.

    2013-01-01

    Evolutionary inferences are usually based on statistical models that compare mean genotypes and phenotypes (or their frequencies) among populations. An alternative is to use the actual distribution of genotypes and phenotypes to infer the “exchangeability” of individuals among populations. We illustrate this approach by using discriminant functions on principal components to classify individuals among paired lake and stream populations of threespine stickleback in each of six independent watersheds. Classification based on neutral and non-neutral microsatellite markers was highest to the population of origin and next-highest to populations in the same watershed. These patterns are consistent with the influence of historical contingency (separate colonization of each watershed) and subsequent gene flow (within but not between watersheds). In comparison to this low genetic exchangeability, ecological (diet) and morphological (trophic and armor traits) exchangeability was relatively high – particularly among populations from similar habitats. These patterns reflect the role of natural selection in driving parallel changes adaptive changes when independent populations colonize similar habitats. Importantly, however, substantial non-parallelism was also evident. Our results show that analyses based on exchangeability can confirm inferences based on statistical analyses of means or frequencies, while also refining insights into the drivers of – and constraints on – evolutionary diversification. PMID:24299398

  18. Is There a Free Lunch in Inference?

    PubMed

    Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D; Verhagen, Josine; Province, Jordan M; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2016-07-01

    The field of psychology, including cognitive science, is vexed by a crisis of confidence. Although the causes and solutions are varied, we focus here on a common logical problem in inference. The default mode of inference is significance testing, which has a free lunch property where researchers need not make detailed assumptions about the alternative to test the null hypothesis. We present the argument that there is no free lunch; that is, valid testing requires that researchers test the null against a well-specified alternative. We show how this requirement follows from the basic tenets of conventional and Bayesian probability. Moreover, we show in both the conventional and Bayesian framework that not specifying the alternative may lead to rejections of the null hypothesis with scant evidence. We review both frequentist and Bayesian approaches to specifying alternatives, and we show how such specifications improve inference. The field of cognitive science will benefit because consideration of reasonable alternatives will undoubtedly sharpen the intellectual underpinnings of research. PMID:27489199

  19. Is There a Free Lunch in Inference?

    PubMed

    Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D; Verhagen, Josine; Province, Jordan M; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2016-07-01

    The field of psychology, including cognitive science, is vexed by a crisis of confidence. Although the causes and solutions are varied, we focus here on a common logical problem in inference. The default mode of inference is significance testing, which has a free lunch property where researchers need not make detailed assumptions about the alternative to test the null hypothesis. We present the argument that there is no free lunch; that is, valid testing requires that researchers test the null against a well-specified alternative. We show how this requirement follows from the basic tenets of conventional and Bayesian probability. Moreover, we show in both the conventional and Bayesian framework that not specifying the alternative may lead to rejections of the null hypothesis with scant evidence. We review both frequentist and Bayesian approaches to specifying alternatives, and we show how such specifications improve inference. The field of cognitive science will benefit because consideration of reasonable alternatives will undoubtedly sharpen the intellectual underpinnings of research.

  20. Inferred Lunar Boulder Distributions at Decimeter Scales

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baloga, S. M.; Glaze, L. S.; Spudis, P. D.

    2012-01-01

    Block size distributions of impact deposits on the Moon are diagnostic of the impact process and environmental effects, such as target lithology and weathering. Block size distributions are also important factors in trafficability, habitability, and possibly the identification of indigenous resources. Lunar block sizes have been investigated for many years for many purposes [e.g., 1-3]. An unresolved issue is the extent to which lunar block size distributions can be extrapolated to scales smaller than limits of resolution of direct measurement. This would seem to be a straightforward statistical application, but it is complicated by two issues. First, the cumulative size frequency distribution of observable boulders rolls over due to resolution limitations at the small end. Second, statistical regression provides the best fit only around the centroid of the data [4]. Confidence and prediction limits splay away from the best fit at the endpoints resulting in inferences in the boulder density at the CPR scale that can differ by many orders of magnitude [4]. These issues were originally investigated by Cintala and McBride [2] using Surveyor data. The objective of this study was to determine whether the measured block size distributions from Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera - Narrow Angle Camera (LROC-NAC) images (m-scale resolution) can be used to infer the block size distribution at length scales comparable to Mini-RF Circular Polarization Ratio (CPR) scales, nominally taken as 10 cm. This would set the stage for assessing correlations of inferred block size distributions with CPR returns [6].

  1. Variational Inference for Watson Mixture Model.

    PubMed

    Taghia, Jalil; Leijon, Arne

    2016-09-01

    This paper addresses modelling data using the Watson distribution. The Watson distribution is one of the simplest distributions for analyzing axially symmetric data. This distribution has gained some attention in recent years due to its modeling capability. However, its Bayesian inference is fairly understudied due to difficulty in handling the normalization factor. Recent development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods can be applied for this purpose. However, these methods can be prohibitively slow for practical applications. A deterministic alternative is provided by variational methods that convert inference problems into optimization problems. In this paper, we present a variational inference for Watson mixture models. First, the variational framework is used to side-step the intractability arising from the coupling of latent states and parameters. Second, the variational free energy is further lower bounded in order to avoid intractable moment computation. The proposed approach provides a lower bound on the log marginal likelihood and retains distributional information over all parameters. Moreover, we show that it can regulate its own complexity by pruning unnecessary mixture components while avoiding over-fitting. We discuss potential applications of the modeling with Watson distributions in the problem of blind source separation, and clustering gene expression data sets. PMID:26571512

  2. Combinatorics of distance-based tree inference.

    PubMed

    Pardi, Fabio; Gascuel, Olivier

    2012-10-01

    Several popular methods for phylogenetic inference (or hierarchical clustering) are based on a matrix of pairwise distances between taxa (or any kind of objects): The objective is to construct a tree with branch lengths so that the distances between the leaves in that tree are as close as possible to the input distances. If we hold the structure (topology) of the tree fixed, in some relevant cases (e.g., ordinary least squares) the optimal values for the branch lengths can be expressed using simple combinatorial formulae. Here we define a general form for these formulae and show that they all have two desirable properties: First, the common tree reconstruction approaches (least squares, minimum evolution), when used in combination with these formulae, are guaranteed to infer the correct tree when given enough data (consistency); second, the branch lengths of all the simple (nearest neighbor interchange) rearrangements of a tree can be calculated, optimally, in quadratic time in the size of the tree, thus allowing the efficient application of hill climbing heuristics. The study presented here is a continuation of that by Mihaescu and Pachter on branch length estimation [Mihaescu R, Pachter L (2008) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:13206-13211]. The focus here is on the inference of the tree itself and on providing a basis for novel algorithms to reconstruct trees from distances.

  3. Combinatorics of distance-based tree inference

    PubMed Central

    Pardi, Fabio; Gascuel, Olivier

    2012-01-01

    Several popular methods for phylogenetic inference (or hierarchical clustering) are based on a matrix of pairwise distances between taxa (or any kind of objects): The objective is to construct a tree with branch lengths so that the distances between the leaves in that tree are as close as possible to the input distances. If we hold the structure (topology) of the tree fixed, in some relevant cases (e.g., ordinary least squares) the optimal values for the branch lengths can be expressed using simple combinatorial formulae. Here we define a general form for these formulae and show that they all have two desirable properties: First, the common tree reconstruction approaches (least squares, minimum evolution), when used in combination with these formulae, are guaranteed to infer the correct tree when given enough data (consistency); second, the branch lengths of all the simple (nearest neighbor interchange) rearrangements of a tree can be calculated, optimally, in quadratic time in the size of the tree, thus allowing the efficient application of hill climbing heuristics. The study presented here is a continuation of that by Mihaescu and Pachter on branch length estimation [Mihaescu R, Pachter L (2008) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:13206–13211]. The focus here is on the inference of the tree itself and on providing a basis for novel algorithms to reconstruct trees from distances. PMID:23012403

  4. Inferring sparse networks for noisy transient processes.

    PubMed

    Tran, Hoang M; Bukkapatnam, Satish T S

    2016-01-01

    Inferring causal structures of real world complex networks from measured time series signals remains an open issue. The current approaches are inadequate to discern between direct versus indirect influences (i.e., the presence or absence of a directed arc connecting two nodes) in the presence of noise, sparse interactions, as well as nonlinear and transient dynamics of real world processes. We report a sparse regression (referred to as the l1-min) approach with theoretical bounds on the constraints on the allowable perturbation to recover the network structure that guarantees sparsity and robustness to noise. We also introduce averaging and perturbation procedures to further enhance prediction scores (i.e., reduce inference errors), and the numerical stability of l1-min approach. Extensive investigations have been conducted with multiple benchmark simulated genetic regulatory network and Michaelis-Menten dynamics, as well as real world data sets from DREAM5 challenge. These investigations suggest that our approach can significantly improve, oftentimes by 5 orders of magnitude over the methods reported previously for inferring the structure of dynamic networks, such as Bayesian network, network deconvolution, silencing and modular response analysis methods based on optimizing for sparsity, transients, noise and high dimensionality issues. PMID:26916813

  5. Inferring sparse networks for noisy transient processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tran, Hoang M.; Bukkapatnam, Satish T. S.

    2016-02-01

    Inferring causal structures of real world complex networks from measured time series signals remains an open issue. The current approaches are inadequate to discern between direct versus indirect influences (i.e., the presence or absence of a directed arc connecting two nodes) in the presence of noise, sparse interactions, as well as nonlinear and transient dynamics of real world processes. We report a sparse regression (referred to as the -min) approach with theoretical bounds on the constraints on the allowable perturbation to recover the network structure that guarantees sparsity and robustness to noise. We also introduce averaging and perturbation procedures to further enhance prediction scores (i.e., reduce inference errors), and the numerical stability of -min approach. Extensive investigations have been conducted with multiple benchmark simulated genetic regulatory network and Michaelis-Menten dynamics, as well as real world data sets from DREAM5 challenge. These investigations suggest that our approach can significantly improve, oftentimes by 5 orders of magnitude over the methods reported previously for inferring the structure of dynamic networks, such as Bayesian network, network deconvolution, silencing and modular response analysis methods based on optimizing for sparsity, transients, noise and high dimensionality issues.

  6. Combinatorics of distance-based tree inference.

    PubMed

    Pardi, Fabio; Gascuel, Olivier

    2012-10-01

    Several popular methods for phylogenetic inference (or hierarchical clustering) are based on a matrix of pairwise distances between taxa (or any kind of objects): The objective is to construct a tree with branch lengths so that the distances between the leaves in that tree are as close as possible to the input distances. If we hold the structure (topology) of the tree fixed, in some relevant cases (e.g., ordinary least squares) the optimal values for the branch lengths can be expressed using simple combinatorial formulae. Here we define a general form for these formulae and show that they all have two desirable properties: First, the common tree reconstruction approaches (least squares, minimum evolution), when used in combination with these formulae, are guaranteed to infer the correct tree when given enough data (consistency); second, the branch lengths of all the simple (nearest neighbor interchange) rearrangements of a tree can be calculated, optimally, in quadratic time in the size of the tree, thus allowing the efficient application of hill climbing heuristics. The study presented here is a continuation of that by Mihaescu and Pachter on branch length estimation [Mihaescu R, Pachter L (2008) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:13206-13211]. The focus here is on the inference of the tree itself and on providing a basis for novel algorithms to reconstruct trees from distances. PMID:23012403

  7. Inferring Epidemic Network Topology from Surveillance Data

    PubMed Central

    Wan, Xiang; Liu, Jiming; Cheung, William K.; Tong, Tiejun

    2014-01-01

    The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases. PMID:24979215

  8. Functional neuroanatomy of intuitive physical inference.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Jason; Mikhael, John G; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Kanwisher, Nancy

    2016-08-23

    To engage with the world-to understand the scene in front of us, plan actions, and predict what will happen next-we must have an intuitive grasp of the world's physical structure and dynamics. How do the objects in front of us rest on and support each other, how much force would be required to move them, and how will they behave when they fall, roll, or collide? Despite the centrality of physical inferences in daily life, little is known about the brain mechanisms recruited to interpret the physical structure of a scene and predict how physical events will unfold. Here, in a series of fMRI experiments, we identified a set of cortical regions that are selectively engaged when people watch and predict the unfolding of physical events-a "physics engine" in the brain. These brain regions are selective to physical inferences relative to nonphysical but otherwise highly similar scenes and tasks. However, these regions are not exclusively engaged in physical inferences per se or, indeed, even in scene understanding; they overlap with the domain-general "multiple demand" system, especially the parts of that system involved in action planning and tool use, pointing to a close relationship between the cognitive and neural mechanisms involved in parsing the physical content of a scene and preparing an appropriate action. PMID:27503892

  9. All That Unplowed Sea

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MOSAIC, 1975

    1975-01-01

    Hunting and gathering at sea may fast be approaching their productive limits. Aquaculture - farming at sea - linked to conservation represents the sea's promise. If the system works, it might prove to be the key to supplying large amounts of food and fresh water at no cost in nonrenewable energy resources. (BT)

  10. Statistical Inference at Work: Statistical Process Control as an Example

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bakker, Arthur; Kent, Phillip; Derry, Jan; Noss, Richard; Hoyles, Celia

    2008-01-01

    To characterise statistical inference in the workplace this paper compares a prototypical type of statistical inference at work, statistical process control (SPC), with a type of statistical inference that is better known in educational settings, hypothesis testing. Although there are some similarities between the reasoning structure involved in…

  11. Is there a hierarchy of social inferences? The likelihood and speed of inferring intentionality, mind, and personality.

    PubMed

    Malle, Bertram F; Holbrook, Jess

    2012-04-01

    People interpret behavior by making inferences about agents' intentionality, mind, and personality. Past research studied such inferences 1 at a time; in real life, people make these inferences simultaneously. The present studies therefore examined whether 4 major inferences (intentionality, desire, belief, and personality), elicited simultaneously in response to an observed behavior, might be ordered in a hierarchy of likelihood and speed. To achieve generalizability, the studies included a wide range of stimulus behaviors, presented them verbally and as dynamic videos, and assessed inferences both in a retrieval paradigm (measuring the likelihood and speed of accessing inferences immediately after they were made) and in an online processing paradigm (measuring the speed of forming inferences during behavior observation). Five studies provide evidence for a hierarchy of social inferences-from intentionality and desire to belief to personality-that is stable across verbal and visual presentations and that parallels the order found in developmental and primate research.

  12. Inferring epidemiological dynamics with Bayesian coalescent inference: the merits of deterministic and stochastic models.

    PubMed

    Popinga, Alex; Vaughan, Tim; Stadler, Tanja; Drummond, Alexei J

    2015-02-01

    Estimation of epidemiological and population parameters from molecular sequence data has become central to the understanding of infectious disease dynamics. Various models have been proposed to infer details of the dynamics that describe epidemic progression. These include inference approaches derived from Kingman's coalescent theory. Here, we use recently described coalescent theory for epidemic dynamics to develop stochastic and deterministic coalescent susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) tree priors. We implement these in a Bayesian phylogenetic inference framework to permit joint estimation of SIR epidemic parameters and the sample genealogy. We assess the performance of the two coalescent models and also juxtapose results obtained with a recently published birth-death-sampling model for epidemic inference. Comparisons are made by analyzing sets of genealogies simulated under precisely known epidemiological parameters. Additionally, we analyze influenza A (H1N1) sequence data sampled in the Canterbury region of New Zealand and HIV-1 sequence data obtained from known United Kingdom infection clusters. We show that both coalescent SIR models are effective at estimating epidemiological parameters from data with large fundamental reproductive number [Formula: see text] and large population size [Formula: see text]. Furthermore, we find that the stochastic variant generally outperforms its deterministic counterpart in terms of error, bias, and highest posterior density coverage, particularly for smaller [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. However, each of these inference models is shown to have undesirable properties in certain circumstances, especially for epidemic outbreaks with [Formula: see text] close to one or with small effective susceptible populations. PMID:25527289

  13. Dust Storm, Aral Sea

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    The Aral Sea has shrunk to less than half its size since 1985. The Aral Sea receives little water (sometimes no water) from the two major rivers that empty into it-the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. Instead, the river water is diverted to support irrigation for the region's extensive cotton fields. Recently, water scarcity has increased due to a prolonged drought in Central Asia. As the Aral Sea recedes, its former sea bed is exposed. The Aral's sea bed is composed of fine sediments-including fertilizers and other agricultural chemicals-that are easily picked up by the region's strong winds, creating thick dust storms. The International Space Station crew observed and recorded a large dust storm blowing eastward from the Aral Sea in late June 2001. This image illustrates the strong coupling between human activities (water diversions and irrigation), and rapidly changing land, sea and atmospheric processes-the winds blow across the

  14. Formative Processes Governing Ross Sea Polynya Areal Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    Of the 17 million km^2 of sea ice in the Southern Ocean, ~10% is generated through coastal polynyal systems. The largest and greatest contributor to sea ice formation in the Antarctic is the Ross Sea Polynya which exists in a region where sea ice trends are positive and significant. Understanding polynya areal dynamics and the contributing physical factors will give further insight into the future of Ross Sea ice production. Previous studies have established coastal winds and surface temperatures as key contributors to the development and maintenance of coastal polynyas. However, much that is understood is based on physically sound inference. While the influence of these variables have been studied separately, their concerted roles have not been quantified, neither has any indication of their variation with time been established. Automatic weather station data produced by the Antarctic Automatic Weather Station Program was acquired from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and polynya area data was produced through the application of the Polynya Signature Simulation Method onto Special Sensor Microwave Imager input acquired from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Wind speed, wind direction, sea surface temperature, near surface air temperature, oceanic temperature, and tidal fluctuations are examined as physically significant contributors to polynya areal variability and are considered in a multivariate regression model at a 95% confidence level. This study quantifies the degree to which each variable contributes to Ross Sea Polynya areal dynamics, and determines how their influences vary seasonally and in the long term.

  15. The 14 month wind stressed residual circulation (pole tide) in the North Sea

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oconnor, W. P.

    1986-01-01

    From published research it is known that a quasi-periodic 14 month atmospheric pressure oscillation of a few tenths of a millibar exists in the region of the North and Baltic Seas. At some time in the cycle the associated wind stress has a westerly component that drives a circulation in the North Sea. The results of a dynamical model and comparisons with several North Sea residual circulation studies show that a large sea level gradient results along the Dutch coast. It is this feature that has been referred to as the enhanced pole tide. The dynamical similarity of this pole tide in the North and Baltic Seas to the annual and seasonal wind forced circulations is considered. It is inferred that the large deviations of the pole tide from equilibrium at coastal stations are the result of this sea level set up forces by the 14 month wind stress cycle.

  16. The impact of groundwater depletion on spatial variations in sea level change during the past century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veit, Emeline; Conrad, Clinton P.

    2016-04-01

    Continental groundwater loss during the past century has elevated sea level by up to ~25 mm. The mass unloading associated with this depletion locally uplifts Earth's solid surface and depresses the geoid, leading to slower relative sea level rise near areas of significant groundwater loss. We computed spatial variations in sea level using a model of the solid Earth's response to estimates of groundwater depletion during the past century and find large negative deviations of ~0.4 mm/yr along the coastlines of western North America and southern Asia. This approximately corresponds to the difference between rates of sea level rise measured by tide gauges in these regions since 1930 and average rates inferred from global reconstructions. Groundwater-induced regional variations in sea level can be larger than those due to postglacial rebound and interseismic deformation and should become increasingly important in the future as both groundwater depletion and sea level rise accelerate.

  17. Correlation of sea level falls interpreted from atoll stratigraphy with turbidites in adjacent basins

    SciTech Connect

    Lincoln, J.M. )

    1990-05-01

    Past sea levels can be derived from any atoll subsurface sediments deposited at or near sea level by determining the ages of deposition and correcting the present depths to the sediments for subsidence of the underlying edifice since the times of deposition. A sea level curve constructed by this method consists of discontinuous segments, each corresponding to a period of rising relative sea level and deposition of a discrete sedimentary package. Discontinuities in the sea level curve derived by this method correspond to relative sea level falls and stratigraphic hiatuses in the atoll subsurface. During intervals of relative sea level fall an atoll emerges to become a high limestone island. Sea level may fluctuate several times during a period of atoll emergence to become a high limestone island. Sea level may fluctuate several times during a period of atoll emergence without depositing sediments on top of the atoll. Furthermore, subaerial erosion may remove a substantial part of the depositional record of previous sea level fluctuations. For these reasons the authors must look to the adjacent basins to complement the incomplete record of sea level change recorded beneath atolls. During lowstands of sea level, faunas originally deposited near sea level on an atoll may be eroded and redeposited as turbidites in deep adjacent basins. Three such turbidites penetrated during deep-sea drilling at Sites 462 and 315 in the central Pacific correlate well with a late Tertiary sea level curve based on biostratigraphic ages and {sup 87}Sr/{sup 86}Sr chronostratigraphy for core from Enewetak Atoll in the northern Marshall Islands. Further drilling of the archipelagic aprons adjacent to atolls will improve the sea level history that may be inferred from atoll stratigraphy.

  18. Bayesian Estimation and Inference Using Stochastic Electronics

    PubMed Central

    Thakur, Chetan Singh; Afshar, Saeed; Wang, Runchun M.; Hamilton, Tara J.; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker), demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise) probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND), we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC) technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream. PMID:27047326

  19. On the scientific inference from clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Holmberg, L; Baum, M; Adami, H O

    1999-05-01

    We have not been able to describe clearly how we generalize findings from a study to our own 'everyday patients'. This difficulty is not surprising, since generalization deals with how empirical observations are related to the growth of scientific knowledge, which is a major philosophical problem. An argument, sometimes used to discard evidence from a trial, is that the patient sample was too selected and therefore not 'representative' enough for the results to be meaningful for generalization. In this paper, we discuss issues of representativeness and generalizability. Other authors have shown that generalization cannot only depend on statistical inference. Then, how do randomized clinical trials contribute to the growth of knowledge? We discuss three aspects of the randomized clinical trial (Mant 1999), First, the trial is an empirical experiment set up to study the intervention on the question as specifically and as much in isolation from other -- biasing and confounding -- factors as possible (Rothman & Greenland 1998). Second, the trial is set up to challenge our prevailing hypotheses (or prejudices) and the trial is above all a help in error elimination (Popper 1992). Third, we need to learn to see new, unexpected and thought-provoking patterns in the data from a trial. Point one -- and partly point two -- refers to the paradigm of the controlled experiment in scientific method. How much a study contributes to our knowledge, with respect to points two and three, relates to its originality. In none of these respects is the representativeness of the patients, or the clinical situations, crucial for judging the study and its possible inferences. However, we also discuss that the biological domain of disease that was studied in a particular trial has to be taken into account. Thus, the inference drawn from a clinical study is not only a question of statistical generalization, but must include a jump from the world of experiences into the world of reason

  20. Nonparametric inference of network structure and dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peixoto, Tiago P.

    The network structure of complex systems determine their function and serve as evidence for the evolutionary mechanisms that lie behind them. Despite considerable effort in recent years, it remains an open challenge to formulate general descriptions of the large-scale structure of network systems, and how to reliably extract such information from data. Although many approaches have been proposed, few methods attempt to gauge the statistical significance of the uncovered structures, and hence the majority cannot reliably separate actual structure from stochastic fluctuations. Due to the sheer size and high-dimensionality of many networks, this represents a major limitation that prevents meaningful interpretations of the results obtained with such nonstatistical methods. In this talk, I will show how these issues can be tackled in a principled and efficient fashion by formulating appropriate generative models of network structure that can have their parameters inferred from data. By employing a Bayesian description of such models, the inference can be performed in a nonparametric fashion, that does not require any a priori knowledge or ad hoc assumptions about the data. I will show how this approach can be used to perform model comparison, and how hierarchical models yield the most appropriate trade-off between model complexity and quality of fit based on the statistical evidence present in the data. I will also show how this general approach can be elegantly extended to networks with edge attributes, that are embedded in latent spaces, and that change in time. The latter is obtained via a fully dynamic generative network model, based on arbitrary-order Markov chains, that can also be inferred in a nonparametric fashion. Throughout the talk I will illustrate the application of the methods with many empirical networks such as the internet at the autonomous systems level, the global airport network, the network of actors and films, social networks, citations among

  1. Bayesian Estimation and Inference Using Stochastic Electronics.

    PubMed

    Thakur, Chetan Singh; Afshar, Saeed; Wang, Runchun M; Hamilton, Tara J; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker), demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise) probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND), we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC) technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream.

  2. Inferring influenza dynamics and control in households

    PubMed Central

    Lau, Max S.Y.; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Cook, Alex R.; Riley, Steven

    2015-01-01

    Household-based interventions are the mainstay of public health policy against epidemic respiratory pathogens when vaccination is not available. Although the efficacy of these interventions has traditionally been measured by their ability to reduce the proportion of household contacts who exhibit symptoms [household secondary attack rate (hSAR)], this metric is difficult to interpret and makes only partial use of data collected by modern field studies. Here, we use Bayesian transmission model inference to analyze jointly both symptom reporting and viral shedding data from a three-armed study of influenza interventions. The reduction in hazard of infection in the increased hand hygiene intervention arm was 37.0% [8.3%, 57.8%], whereas the equivalent reduction in the other intervention arm was 27.2% [−0.46%, 52.3%] (increased hand hygiene and face masks). By imputing the presence and timing of unobserved infection, we estimated that only 61.7% [43.1%, 76.9%] of infections met the case criteria and were thus detected by the study design. An assessment of interventions using inferred infections produced more intuitively consistent attack rates when households were stratified by the speed of intervention, compared with the crude hSAR. Compared with adults, children were 2.29 [1.66, 3.23] times as infectious and 3.36 [2.31, 4.82] times as susceptible. The mean generation time was 3.39 d [3.06, 3.70]. Laboratory confirmation of infections by RT-PCR was only able to detect 79.6% [76.5%, 83.0%] of symptomatic infections, even at the peak of shedding. Our results highlight the potential use of robust inference with well-designed mechanistic transmission models to improve the design of intervention studies. PMID:26150502

  3. Inferring influenza dynamics and control in households.

    PubMed

    Lau, Max S Y; Cowling, Benjamin J; Cook, Alex R; Riley, Steven

    2015-07-21

    Household-based interventions are the mainstay of public health policy against epidemic respiratory pathogens when vaccination is not available. Although the efficacy of these interventions has traditionally been measured by their ability to reduce the proportion of household contacts who exhibit symptoms [household secondary attack rate (hSAR)], this metric is difficult to interpret and makes only partial use of data collected by modern field studies. Here, we use Bayesian transmission model inference to analyze jointly both symptom reporting and viral shedding data from a three-armed study of influenza interventions. The reduction in hazard of infection in the increased hand hygiene intervention arm was 37.0% [8.3%, 57.8%], whereas the equivalent reduction in the other intervention arm was 27.2% [-0.46%, 52.3%] (increased hand hygiene and face masks). By imputing the presence and timing of unobserved infection, we estimated that only 61.7% [43.1%, 76.9%] of infections met the case criteria and were thus detected by the study design. An assessment of interventions using inferred infections produced more intuitively consistent attack rates when households were stratified by the speed of intervention, compared with the crude hSAR. Compared with adults, children were 2.29 [1.66, 3.23] times as infectious and 3.36 [2.31, 4.82] times as susceptible. The mean generation time was 3.39 d [3.06, 3.70]. Laboratory confirmation of infections by RT-PCR was only able to detect 79.6% [76.5%, 83.0%] of symptomatic infections, even at the peak of shedding. Our results highlight the potential use of robust inference with well-designed mechanistic transmission models to improve the design of intervention studies. PMID:26150502

  4. Bayesian Estimation and Inference Using Stochastic Electronics.

    PubMed

    Thakur, Chetan Singh; Afshar, Saeed; Wang, Runchun M; Hamilton, Tara J; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker), demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise) probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND), we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC) technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream. PMID:27047326

  5. Data free inference with processed data products

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Chowdhary, K.; Najm, H. N.

    2014-07-12

    Here, we consider the context of probabilistic inference of model parameters given error bars or confidence intervals on model output values, when the data is unavailable. We introduce a class of algorithms in a Bayesian framework, relying on maximum entropy arguments and approximate Bayesian computation methods, to generate consistent data with the given summary statistics. Once we obtain consistent data sets, we pool the respective posteriors, to arrive at a single, averaged density on the parameters. This approach allows us to perform accurate forward uncertainty propagation consistent with the reported statistics.

  6. Bayesian Inference in Satellite Gravity Inversion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kis, K. I.; Taylor, Patrick T.; Wittmann, G.; Kim, Hyung Rae; Torony, B.; Mayer-Guerr, T.

    2005-01-01

    To solve a geophysical inverse problem means applying measurements to determine the parameters of the selected model. The inverse problem is formulated as the Bayesian inference. The Gaussian probability density functions are applied in the Bayes's equation. The CHAMP satellite gravity data are determined at the altitude of 400 kilometer altitude over the South part of the Pannonian basin. The model of interpretation is the right vertical cylinder. The parameters of the model are obtained from the minimum problem solved by the Simplex method.

  7. Inferences on the common coefficient of variation.

    PubMed

    Tian, Lili

    2005-07-30

    The coefficient of variation is often used as a measure of precision and reproducibility of data in medical and biological science. This paper considers the problem of making inference about the common population coefficient of variation when it is a priori suspected that several independent samples are from populations with a common coefficient of variation. The procedures for confidence interval estimation and hypothesis testing are developed based on the concepts of generalized variables. The coverage properties of the proposed confidence intervals and type-I errors of the proposed tests are evaluated by simulation. The proposed methods are illustrated by a real life example.

  8. Predictive Inference Using Latent Variables with Covariates*

    PubMed Central

    Schofield, Lynne Steuerle; Junker, Brian; Taylor, Lowell J.; Black, Dan A.

    2014-01-01

    Plausible Values (PVs) are a standard multiple imputation tool for analysis of large education survey data that measures latent proficiency variables. When latent proficiency is the dependent variable, we reconsider the standard institutionally-generated PV methodology and find it applies with greater generality than shown previously. When latent proficiency is an independent variable, we show that the standard institutional PV methodology produces biased inference because the institutional conditioning model places restrictions on the form of the secondary analysts’ model. We offer an alternative approach that avoids these biases based on the mixed effects structural equations (MESE) model of Schofield (2008). PMID:25231627

  9. Identifying inference attacks against healthcare data repositories

    PubMed Central

    Vaidya, Jaideep; Shafiq, Basit; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

    Health care data repositories play an important role in driving progress in medical research. Finding new pathways to discovery requires having adequate data and relevant analysis. However, it is critical to ensure the privacy and security of the stored data. In this paper, we identify a dangerous inference attack against naive suppression based approaches that are used to protect sensitive information. We base our attack on the querying system provided by the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, though it applies in general to any medical database providing a query capability. We also discuss potential solutions to this problem. PMID:24303279

  10. Solar structure: Models and inferences from helioseismology

    SciTech Connect

    Guzik, J.A.

    1998-12-31

    In this review the author summarizes results published during approximately the least three years concerning the state of one-dimensional solar interior modeling. She discusses the effects of refinements to the input physics, motivated by improving the agreement between calculated and observed solar oscillation frequencies, or between calculated and inferred solar structure. She has omitted two- and three-dimensional aspects of the solar structure, such as the rotation profile, detailed modeling of turbulent convection, and magnetic fields, although further progress in refining solar interior models may require including such two- and three-dimensional dynamical effects.

  11. First glimpse into Lower Jurassic deep-sea biodiversity: in situ diversification and resilience against extinction.

    PubMed

    Thuy, Ben; Kiel, Steffen; Dulai, Alfréd; Gale, Andy S; Kroh, Andreas; Lord, Alan R; Numberger-Thuy, Lea D; Stöhr, Sabine; Wisshak, Max

    2014-07-01

    Owing to the assumed lack of deep-sea macrofossils older than the Late Cretaceous, very little is known about the geological history of deep-sea communities, and most inference-based hypotheses argue for repeated recolonizations of the deep sea from shelf habitats following major palaeoceanographic perturbations. We present a fossil deep-sea assemblage of echinoderms, gastropods, brachiopods and ostracods, from the Early Jurassic of the Glasenbach Gorge, Austria, which includes the oldest known representatives of a number of extant deep-sea groups, and thus implies that in situ diversification, in contrast to immigration from shelf habitats, played a much greater role in shaping modern deep-sea biodiversity than previously thought. A comparison with coeval shelf assemblages reveals that, at least in some of the analysed groups, significantly more extant families/superfamilies have endured in the deep sea since the Early Jurassic than in the shelf seas, which suggests that deep-sea biota are more resilient against extinction than shallow-water ones. In addition, a number of extant deep-sea families/superfamilies found in the Glasenbach assemblage lack post-Jurassic shelf occurrences, implying that if there was a complete extinction of the deep-sea fauna followed by replacement from the shelf, it must have happened before the Late Jurassic.

  12. Natural frequencies facilitate diagnostic inferences of managers

    PubMed Central

    Hoffrage, Ulrich; Hafenbrädl, Sebastian; Bouquet, Cyril

    2015-01-01

    In Bayesian inference tasks, information about base rates as well as hit rate and false-alarm rate needs to be integrated according to Bayes’ rule after the result of a diagnostic test became known. Numerous studies have found that presenting information in a Bayesian inference task in terms of natural frequencies leads to better performance compared to variants with information presented in terms of probabilities or percentages. Natural frequencies are the tallies in a natural sample in which hit rate and false-alarm rate are not normalized with respect to base rates. The present research replicates the beneficial effect of natural frequencies with four tasks from the domain of management, and with management students as well as experienced executives as participants. The percentage of Bayesian responses was almost twice as high when information was presented in natural frequencies compared to a presentation in terms of percentages. In contrast to most tasks previously studied, the majority of numerical responses were lower than the Bayesian solutions. Having heard of Bayes’ rule prior to the study did not affect Bayesian performance. An implication of our work is that textbooks explaining Bayes’ rule should teach how to represent information in terms of natural frequencies instead of how to plug probabilities or percentages into a formula. PMID:26157397

  13. Phylogenetic Inference From Conserved sites Alignments

    SciTech Connect

    grundy, W.N.; Naylor, G.J.P.

    1999-08-15

    Molecular sequences provide a rich source of data for inferring the phylogenetic relationships among species. However, recent work indicates that even an accurate multiple alignment of a large sequence set may yield an incorrect phylogeny and that the quality of the phylogenetic tree improves when the input consists only of the highly conserved, motif regions of the alignment. This work introduces two methods of producing multiple alignments that include only the conserved regions of the initial alignment. The first method retains conserved motifs, whereas the second retains individual conserved sites in the initial alignment. Using parsimony analysis on a mitochondrial data set containing 19 species among which the phylogenetic relationships are widely accepted, both conserved alignment methods produce better phylogenetic trees than the complete alignment. Unlike any of the 19 inference methods used before to analyze this data, both methods produce trees that are completely consistent with the known phylogeny. The motif-based method employs far fewer alignment sites for comparable error rates. For a larger data set containing mitochondrial sequences from 39 species, the site-based method produces a phylogenetic tree that is largely consistent with known phylogenetic relationships and suggests several novel placements.

  14. Cooperative inference: Features, objects, and collections.

    PubMed

    Searcy, Sophia Ray; Shafto, Patrick

    2016-10-01

    Cooperation plays a central role in theories of development, learning, cultural evolution, and education. We argue that existing models of learning from cooperative informants have fundamental limitations that prevent them from explaining how cooperation benefits learning. First, existing models are shown to be computationally intractable, suggesting that they cannot apply to realistic learning problems. Second, existing models assume a priori agreement about which concepts are favored in learning, which leads to a conundrum: Learning fails without precise agreement on bias yet there is no single rational choice. We introduce cooperative inference, a novel framework for cooperation in concept learning, which resolves these limitations. Cooperative inference generalizes the notion of cooperation used in previous models from omission of labeled objects to the omission values of features, labels for objects, and labels for collections of objects. The result is an approach that is computationally tractable, does not require a priori agreement about biases, applies to both Boolean and first-order concepts, and begins to approximate the richness of real-world concept learning problems. We conclude by discussing relations to and implications for existing theories of cognition, cognitive development, and cultural evolution. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27379575

  15. An Ada inference engine for expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lavallee, David B.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose is to investigate the feasibility of using Ada for rule-based expert systems with real-time performance requirements. This includes exploring the Ada features which give improved performance to expert systems as well as optimizing the tradeoffs or workarounds that the use of Ada may require. A prototype inference engine was built using Ada, and rule firing rates in excess of 500 per second were demonstrated on a single MC68000 processor. The knowledge base uses a directed acyclic graph to represent production lines. The graph allows the use of AND, OR, and NOT logical operators. The inference engine uses a combination of both forward and backward chaining in order to reach goals as quickly as possible. Future efforts will include additional investigation of multiprocessing to improve performance and creating a user interface allowing rule input in an Ada-like syntax. Investigation of multitasking and alternate knowledge base representations will help to analyze some of the performance issues as they relate to larger problems.

  16. Spatial Inference for Distributed Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braverman, A. J.; Katzfuss, M.; Nguyen, H.

    2014-12-01

    Remote sensing data are inherently spatial, and a substantial portion of their value for scientific analyses derives from the information they can provide about spatially dependent processes. Geophysical variables such as atmopsheric temperature, cloud properties, humidity, aerosols and carbon dioxide all exhibit spatial patterns, and satellite observations can help us learn about the physical mechanisms driving them. However, remote sensing observations are often noisy and incomplete, so inferring properties of true geophysical fields from them requires some care. These data can also be massive, which is both a blessing and a curse: using more data drives uncertainties down, but also drives costs up, particularly when data are stored on different computers or in different physical locations. In this talk I will discuss a methodology for spatial inference on massive, distributed data sets that does not require moving large volumes of data. The idea is based on a combination of ideas including modeling spatial covariance structures with low-rank covariance matrices, and distributed estimation in sensor or wireless networks.

  17. Inferring tumor progression from genomic heterogeneity

    PubMed Central

    Navin, Nicholas; Krasnitz, Alexander; Rodgers, Linda; Cook, Kerry; Meth, Jennifer; Kendall, Jude; Riggs, Michael; Eberling, Yvonne; Troge, Jennifer; Grubor, Vladimir; Levy, Dan; Lundin, Pär; Månér, Susanne; Zetterberg, Anders; Hicks, James; Wigler, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Cancer progression in humans is difficult to infer because we do not routinely sample patients at multiple stages of their disease. However, heterogeneous breast tumors provide a unique opportunity to study human tumor progression because they still contain evidence of early and intermediate subpopulations in the form of the phylogenetic relationships. We have developed a method we call Sector-Ploidy-Profiling (SPP) to study the clonal composition of breast tumors. SPP involves macro-dissecting tumors, flow-sorting genomic subpopulations by DNA content, and profiling genomes using comparative genomic hybridization (CGH). Breast carcinomas display two classes of genomic structural variation: (1) monogenomic and (2) polygenomic. Monogenomic tumors appear to contain a single major clonal subpopulation with a highly stable chromosome structure. Polygenomic tumors contain multiple clonal tumor subpopulations, which may occupy the same sectors, or separate anatomic locations. In polygenomic tumors, we show that heterogeneity can be ascribed to a few clonal subpopulations, rather than a series of gradual intermediates. By comparing multiple subpopulations from different anatomic locations, we have inferred pathways of cancer progression and the organization of tumor growth. PMID:19903760

  18. On uncertain sightings and inference about extinction.

    PubMed

    Solow, Andrew R; Beet, Andrew R

    2014-08-01

    The extinction of many species can only be inferred from the record of sightings of individuals. Solow et al. (2012, Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. Conservation Biology 26:180-184) describe a Bayesian approach to such inference and apply it to a sighting record of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). A feature of this sighting record is that all uncertain sightings occurred after the most recent certain sighting. However, this appears to be an artifact. We extended this earlier work in 2 ways. First, we allowed for overlap in time between certain and uncertain sightings. Second, we considered 2 plausible statistical models of a sighting record. In one of these models, certain and uncertain sightings that are valid arise from the same process whereas in the other they arise from independent processes. We applied both models to the case of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. The result from the first model did not favor extinction, whereas the result for the second model did. This underscores the importance, in applying tests for extinction, of understanding what could be called the natural history of the sighting record.

  19. Inferring social ties from geographic coincidences

    PubMed Central

    Crandall, David J.; Backstrom, Lars; Cosley, Dan; Suri, Siddharth; Huttenlocher, Daniel; Kleinberg, Jon

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the extent to which social ties between people can be inferred from co-occurrence in time and space: Given that two people have been in approximately the same geographic locale at approximately the same time, on multiple occasions, how likely are they to know each other? Furthermore, how does this likelihood depend on the spatial and temporal proximity of the co-occurrences? Such issues arise in data originating in both online and offline domains as well as settings that capture interfaces between online and offline behavior. Here we develop a framework for quantifying the answers to such questions, and we apply this framework to publicly available data from a social media site, finding that even a very small number of co-occurrences can result in a high empirical likelihood of a social tie. We then present probabilistic models showing how such large probabilities can arise from a natural model of proximity and co-occurrence in the presence of social ties. In addition to providing a method for establishing some of the first quantifiable estimates of these measures, our findings have potential privacy implications, particularly for the ways in which social structures can be inferred from public online records that capture individuals’ physical locations over time. PMID:21148099

  20. Spherical Strong-Shock Inferences on OMEGA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nora, R.; Lafon, M.; Betti, R.; Theobald, W.; Seka, W.; Delettrez, J. A.

    2014-10-01

    A milestone for shock ignition is to experimentally verify the generation of several hundred Mbar shocks at shock-ignition-relevant laser intensities. This paper presents the first experimental evidence of strong shocks generated in a spherical geometry. Using the temporal delay between the launch of the strong shock at the outer surface of the spherical target and the time when the shock converges at the center, the shock properties can be inferred using radiation-hydrodynamic simulations. Peak ablation pressures exceeding 200 Mbar are inferred at laser intensities of ~ 3 ×1015 W/cm2. The shock strength is significantly enhanced by the coupling of copius amounts of hot electrons, up to 2 kJ with Thot ~ 50 to 100 keV. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration under Award Number DE-NA0001944 and the Office of Fusion Energy Sciences Number DE-FG02-04ER54786.

  1. Causal Inference for Spatial Constancy across Saccades.

    PubMed

    Atsma, Jeroen; Maij, Femke; Koppen, Mathieu; Irwin, David E; Medendorp, W Pieter

    2016-03-01

    Our ability to interact with the environment hinges on creating a stable visual world despite the continuous changes in retinal input. To achieve visual stability, the brain must distinguish the retinal image shifts caused by eye movements and shifts due to movements of the visual scene. This process appears not to be flawless: during saccades, we often fail to detect whether visual objects remain stable or move, which is called saccadic suppression of displacement (SSD). How does the brain evaluate the memorized information of the presaccadic scene and the actual visual feedback of the postsaccadic visual scene in the computations for visual stability? Using a SSD task, we test how participants localize the presaccadic position of the fixation target, the saccade target or a peripheral non-foveated target that was displaced parallel or orthogonal during a horizontal saccade, and subsequently viewed for three different durations. Results showed different localization errors of the three targets, depending on the viewing time of the postsaccadic stimulus and its spatial separation from the presaccadic location. We modeled the data through a Bayesian causal inference mechanism, in which at the trial level an optimal mixing of two possible strategies, integration vs. separation of the presaccadic memory and the postsaccadic sensory signals, is applied. Fits of this model generally outperformed other plausible decision strategies for producing SSD. Our findings suggest that humans exploit a Bayesian inference process with two causal structures to mediate visual stability. PMID:26967730

  2. Toddlers infer unobserved causes for spontaneous events

    PubMed Central

    Muentener, Paul; Schulz, Laura

    2014-01-01

    Previous research suggests that children infer the presence of unobserved causes when objects appear to move spontaneously. Are such inferences limited to motion events or do children assume that unexplained physical events have causes more generally? Here we introduce an apparently spontaneous event and ask whether, even in the absence of spatiotemporal and co-variation cues linking the events, toddlers treat a plausible variable as a cause of the event. Toddlers (24 months) saw a toy that appeared to light up either spontaneously or after an experimenter’s action. Toddlers were also introduced to a button but were not shown any predictive relation between the button and the light. Across three different dependent measures of exploration, predictive looking (Study 1), prompted intervention (Study 2), and spontaneous exploration (Study 3), toddlers were more likely to represent the button as a cause of the light when the event appeared to occur spontaneously. In Study 4, we found that even in the absence of a plausible candidate cause, toddlers engaged in selective exploration when the light appeared to activate spontaneously. These results suggest that toddlers’ exploration is guided by the causal explanatory power of events. PMID:25566161

  3. Information Theory, Inference and Learning Algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackay, David J. C.

    2003-10-01

    Information theory and inference, often taught separately, are here united in one entertaining textbook. These topics lie at the heart of many exciting areas of contemporary science and engineering - communication, signal processing, data mining, machine learning, pattern recognition, computational neuroscience, bioinformatics, and cryptography. This textbook introduces theory in tandem with applications. Information theory is taught alongside practical communication systems, such as arithmetic coding for data compression and sparse-graph codes for error-correction. A toolbox of inference techniques, including message-passing algorithms, Monte Carlo methods, and variational approximations, are developed alongside applications of these tools to clustering, convolutional codes, independent component analysis, and neural networks. The final part of the book describes the state of the art in error-correcting codes, including low-density parity-check codes, turbo codes, and digital fountain codes -- the twenty-first century standards for satellite communications, disk drives, and data broadcast. Richly illustrated, filled with worked examples and over 400 exercises, some with detailed solutions, David MacKay's groundbreaking book is ideal for self-learning and for undergraduate or graduate courses. Interludes on crosswords, evolution, and sex provide entertainment along the way. In sum, this is a textbook on information, communication, and coding for a new generation of students, and an unparalleled entry point into these subjects for professionals in areas as diverse as computational biology, financial engineering, and machine learning.

  4. Inferring differentiation pathways from gene expression

    PubMed Central

    Costa, Ivan G.; Roepcke, Stefan; Hafemeister, Christoph; Schliep, Alexander

    2008-01-01

    Motivation: The regulation of proliferation and differentiation of embryonic and adult stem cells into mature cells is central to developmental biology. Gene expression measured in distinguishable developmental stages helps to elucidate underlying molecular processes. In previous work we showed that functional gene modules, which act distinctly in the course of development, can be represented by a mixture of trees. In general, the similarities in the gene expression programs of cell populations reflect the similarities in the differentiation path. Results: We propose a novel model for gene expression profiles and an unsupervised learning method to estimate developmental similarity and infer differentiation pathways. We assess the performance of our model on simulated data and compare it with favorable results to related methods. We also infer differentiation pathways and predict functional modules in gene expression data of lymphoid development. Conclusions: We demonstrate for the first time how, in principal, the incorporation of structural knowledge about the dependence structure helps to reveal differentiation pathways and potentially relevant functional gene modules from microarray datasets. Our method applies in any area of developmental biology where it is possible to obtain cells of distinguishable differentiation stages. Availability: The implementation of our method (GPL license), data and additional results are available at http://algorithmics.molgen.mpg.de/Supplements/InfDif/ Contact: filho@molgen.mpg.de, schliep@molgen.mpg.de Supplementary information: Supplementary data is available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:18586709

  5. Models for inference in dynamic metacommunity systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert M.; Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Plattner, Matthias

    2010-01-01

    A variety of processes are thought to be involved in the formation and dynamics of species assemblages. For example, various metacommunity theories are based on differences in the relative contributions of dispersal of species among local communities and interactions of species within local communities. Interestingly, metacommunity theories continue to be advanced without much empirical validation. Part of the problem is that statistical models used to analyze typical survey data either fail to specify ecological processes with sufficient complexity or they fail to account for errors in detection of species during sampling. In this paper, we describe a statistical modeling framework for the analysis of metacommunity dynamics that is based on the idea of adopting a unified approach, multispecies occupancy modeling, for computing inferences about individual species, local communities of species, or the entire metacommunity of species. This approach accounts for errors in detection of species during sampling and also allows different metacommunity paradigms to be specified in terms of species- and location-specific probabilities of occurrence, extinction, and colonization: all of which are estimable. In addition, this approach can be used to address inference problems that arise in conservation ecology, such as predicting temporal and spatial changes in biodiversity for use in making conservation decisions. To illustrate, we estimate changes in species composition associated with the species-specific phenologies of flight patterns of butterflies in Switzerland for the purpose of estimating regional differences in biodiversity.

  6. Models for inference in dynamic metacommunity systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, R.M.; Kery, M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Plattner, M.

    2010-01-01

    A variety of processes are thought to be involved in the formation and dynamics of species assemblages. For example, various metacommunity theories are based on differences in the relative contributions of dispersal of species among local communities and interactions of species within local communities. Interestingly, metacommunity theories continue to be advanced without much empirical validation. Part of the problem is that statistical models used to analyze typical survey data either fail to specify ecological processes with sufficient complexity or they fail to account for errors in detection of species during sampling. In this paper, we describe a statistical modeling framework for the analysis of metacommunity dynamics that is based on the idea of adopting a unified approach, multispecies occupancy modeling, for computing inferences about individual species, local communities of species, or the entire metacommunity of species. This approach accounts for errors in detection of species during sampling and also allows different metacommunity paradigms to be specified in terms of species-and location-specific probabilities of occurrence, extinction, and colonization: all of which are estimable. In addition, this approach can be used to address inference problems that arise in conservation ecology, such as predicting temporal and spatial changes in biodiversity for use in making conservation decisions. To illustrate, we estimate changes in species composition associated with the species-specific phenologies of flight patterns of butterflies in Switzerland for the purpose of estimating regional differences in biodiversity. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

  7. Inferring tumor progression from genomic heterogeneity.

    PubMed

    Navin, Nicholas; Krasnitz, Alexander; Rodgers, Linda; Cook, Kerry; Meth, Jennifer; Kendall, Jude; Riggs, Michael; Eberling, Yvonne; Troge, Jennifer; Grubor, Vladimir; Levy, Dan; Lundin, Pär; Månér, Susanne; Zetterberg, Anders; Hicks, James; Wigler, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Cancer progression in humans is difficult to infer because we do not routinely sample patients at multiple stages of their disease. However, heterogeneous breast tumors provide a unique opportunity to study human tumor progression because they still contain evidence of early and intermediate subpopulations in the form of the phylogenetic relationships. We have developed a method we call Sector-Ploidy-Profiling (SPP) to study the clonal composition of breast tumors. SPP involves macro-dissecting tumors, flow-sorting genomic subpopulations by DNA content, and profiling genomes using comparative genomic hybridization (CGH). Breast carcinomas display two classes of genomic structural variation: (1) monogenomic and (2) polygenomic. Monogenomic tumors appear to contain a single major clonal subpopulation with a highly stable chromosome structure. Polygenomic tumors contain multiple clonal tumor subpopulations, which may occupy the same sectors, or separate anatomic locations. In polygenomic tumors, we show that heterogeneity can be ascribed to a few clonal subpopulations, rather than a series of gradual intermediates. By comparing multiple subpopulations from different anatomic locations, we have inferred pathways of cancer progression and the organization of tumor growth.

  8. Natural frequencies facilitate diagnostic inferences of managers.

    PubMed

    Hoffrage, Ulrich; Hafenbrädl, Sebastian; Bouquet, Cyril

    2015-01-01

    In Bayesian inference tasks, information about base rates as well as hit rate and false-alarm rate needs to be integrated according to Bayes' rule after the result of a diagnostic test became known. Numerous studies have found that presenting information in a Bayesian inference task in terms of natural frequencies leads to better performance compared to variants with information presented in terms of probabilities or percentages. Natural frequencies are the tallies in a natural sample in which hit rate and false-alarm rate are not normalized with respect to base rates. The present research replicates the beneficial effect of natural frequencies with four tasks from the domain of management, and with management students as well as experienced executives as participants. The percentage of Bayesian responses was almost twice as high when information was presented in natural frequencies compared to a presentation in terms of percentages. In contrast to most tasks previously studied, the majority of numerical responses were lower than the Bayesian solutions. Having heard of Bayes' rule prior to the study did not affect Bayesian performance. An implication of our work is that textbooks explaining Bayes' rule should teach how to represent information in terms of natural frequencies instead of how to plug probabilities or percentages into a formula. PMID:26157397

  9. Inferring social ties from geographic coincidences.

    PubMed

    Crandall, David J; Backstrom, Lars; Cosley, Dan; Suri, Siddharth; Huttenlocher, Daniel; Kleinberg, Jon

    2010-12-28

    We investigate the extent to which social ties between people can be inferred from co-occurrence in time and space: Given that two people have been in approximately the same geographic locale at approximately the same time, on multiple occasions, how likely are they to know each other? Furthermore, how does this likelihood depend on the spatial and temporal proximity of the co-occurrences? Such issues arise in data originating in both online and offline domains as well as settings that capture interfaces between online and offline behavior. Here we develop a framework for quantifying the answers to such questions, and we apply this framework to publicly available data from a social media site, finding that even a very small number of co-occurrences can result in a high empirical likelihood of a social tie. We then present probabilistic models showing how such large probabilities can arise from a natural model of proximity and co-occurrence in the presence of social ties. In addition to providing a method for establishing some of the first quantifiable estimates of these measures, our findings have potential privacy implications, particularly for the ways in which social structures can be inferred from public online records that capture individuals' physical locations over time.

  10. Haplotype inference constrained by plausible haplotype data.

    PubMed

    Fellows, Michael R; Hartman, Tzvika; Hermelin, Danny; Landau, Gad M; Rosamond, Frances; Rozenberg, Liat

    2011-01-01

    The haplotype inference problem (HIP) asks to find a set of haplotypes which resolve a given set of genotypes. This problem is important in practical fields such as the investigation of diseases or other types of genetic mutations. In order to find the haplotypes which are as close as possible to the real set of haplotypes that comprise the genotypes, two models have been suggested which are by now well-studied: The perfect phylogeny model and the pure parsimony model. All known algorithms up till now for haplotype inference may find haplotypes that are not necessarily plausible, i.e., very rare haplotypes or haplotypes that were never observed in the population. In order to overcome this disadvantage, we study in this paper, a new constrained version of HIP under the above-mentioned models. In this new version, a pool of plausible haplotypes H is given together with the set of genotypes G, and the goal is to find a subset H ⊆ H that resolves G. For constrained perfect phlogeny haplotyping (CPPH), we provide initial insights and polynomial-time algorithms for some restricted cases of the problem. For constrained parsimony haplotyping (CPH), we show that the problem is fixed parameter tractable when parameterized by the size of the solution set of haplotypes.

  11. Issues with inferring Internet topological attributes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amini, Lisa D.; Shaikh, Anees; Schulzrinne, Henning G.

    2002-07-01

    A number of recent studies are based on data collected from routing tables of inter-domain routers utilizing Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) and tools, such as traceroute, to probe end-to-end paths. The goal is to infer Internet topological properties. However, as more data is collected, it becomes obvious that data intended to represent the same properties, if gathered at different points within the network, can depict significantly different characteristics. While systematic data collection from a number of network vantage points can reduce certain ambiguities, thus far, no methods have been reported for fully resolving these issues. The goal of our study was to quantify the effect these anomalies have on key Internet structural attributes. We report on our analysis of over 290,000 measurements from globally distributed sites. We contrast results obtained from router-level measurements with those obtained from BGP routing tables, and offer insights as to why certain inferred properties differ. We demonstrate that the effect on some attributes, such as the average path length and the AS degree distribution can be minimized through careful data collection techniques. We also illustrate how using this same data to model other attributes, such as the actual forwarding path between a pair of nodes, or the level of AS path asymmetry, can produce substantially misleading results.

  12. Inferring epigenetic dynamics from kin correlations.

    PubMed

    Hormoz, Sahand; Desprat, Nicolas; Shraiman, Boris I

    2015-05-01

    Populations of isogenic embryonic stem cells or clonal bacteria often exhibit extensive phenotypic heterogeneity that arises from intrinsic stochastic dynamics of cells. The phenotypic state of a cell can be transmitted epigenetically in cell division, leading to correlations in the states of cells related by descent. The extent of these correlations is determined by the rates of transitions between the phenotypic states. Therefore, a snapshot of the phenotypes of a collection of cells with known genealogical structure contains information on phenotypic dynamics. Here, we use a model of phenotypic dynamics on a genealogical tree to define an inference method that allows extraction of an approximate probabilistic description of the dynamics from observed phenotype correlations as a function of the degree of kinship. The approach is tested and validated on the example of Pyoverdine dynamics in Pseudomonas aeruginosa colonies. Interestingly, we find that correlations among pairs and triples of distant relatives have a simple but nontrivial structure indicating that observed phenotypic dynamics on the genealogical tree is approximately conformal--a symmetry characteristic of critical behavior in physical systems. The proposed inference method is sufficiently general to be applied in any system where lineage information is available. PMID:25902540

  13. Do Higher Sea-cliff Retreat Rates Imply Faster Sea-cliff Retreat?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mushkin, A.; Katz, O.; Porat, N.

    2015-12-01

    Inland retreat of sea cliffs in response to post LGM (last glacial maximum) sea-level rise is an ongoing process that affects coastal environments and communities worldwide. Here, we examine a globally recurring pattern where reported sea-cliff retreat rates since the 20th century often appear to exceed longer-term millennial-scale ('background') rates that rarely exceed ~0.1 m/yr. Focusing on Israel's 30-km-long Mediterranean 'Sharon' sea-cliff as a case study we demonstrate that such apparent increase in rates may also reflect a widely acknowledged sampling bias in geologic rate estimates inferred from observation time windows ('Tobs') shorter than process episodicity. We show that this possible bias leads to an ambiguity in conventional rate estimates obtained by averaging observed retreat distances over Tobs, and that as a result despite ubiquitous and robust observations of cliff retreat since the 20th century (e.g., aerial photographs) recent/current retreat rates for many of the world's episodically retreating sea cliffs remain essentially unknown. To address this present limitation in our ability to detect and quantify recent changes in sea-cliff retreat rates we use airborne LiDAR to measure the continuous wave-driven volumetric erosion of collapsed material from the cliff base as an effective upper-bound constraint for the m/yr rate of episodic retreat of the cliff itself. We find that while conventional retreat rate estimates since the 20th century along the Sharon sea cliff artefactually increase up to several m/yr as an inverse function of Tobs, the LiDAR-constrained retreat rates are not susceptible to this sampling bias, are comparable to the cliff's background retreat rate of 0.03-0.07 m/yr since the mid Holocene and thus indicate no recent acceleration in retreat. This ability to unambiguously constrain sea-cliff retreat rates with annual to decadal-scale observations directly impacts the global-scale push to quantify, better understand and

  14. Trans-dimensional Bayesian inference for large sequential data sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandolesi, E.; Dettmer, J.; Dosso, S. E.; Holland, C. W.

    2015-12-01

    This work develops a sequential Monte Carlo method to infer seismic parameters of layered seabeds from large sequential reflection-coefficient data sets. The approach provides parameter estimates and uncertainties along survey tracks with the goal to aid in the detection of unexploded ordnance in shallow water. The sequential data are acquired by a moving platform with source and receiver array towed close to the seabed. This geometry requires consideration of spherical reflection coefficients, computed efficiently by massively parallel implementation of the Sommerfeld integral via Levin integration on a graphics processing unit. The seabed is parametrized with a trans-dimensional model to account for changes in the environment (i.e. changes in layering) along the track. The method combines advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (annealing) with particle filtering (resampling). Since data from closely-spaced source transmissions (pings) often sample similar environments, the solution from one ping can be utilized to efficiently estimate the posterior for data from subsequent pings. Since reflection-coefficient data are highly informative, the likelihood function can be extremely peaked, resulting in little overlap between posteriors of adjacent pings. This is addressed by adding bridging distributions (via annealed importance sampling) between pings for more efficient transitions. The approach assumes the environment to be changing slowly enough to justify the local 1D parametrization. However, bridging allows rapid changes between pings to be addressed and we demonstrate the method to be stable in such situations. Results are in terms of trans-D parameter estimates and uncertainties along the track. The algorithm is examined for realistic simulated data along a track and applied to a dataset collected by an autonomous underwater vehicle on the Malta Plateau, Mediterranean Sea. [Work supported by the SERDP, DoD.

  15. Can We Infer Ocean Dynamics from Altimeter Wavenumber Spectra?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richman, James; Shriver, Jay; Arbic, Brian

    2012-01-01

    The wavenumber spectra of sea surface height (SSH) and kinetic energy (KE) have been used to infer the dynamics of the ocean. When quasi-geostrophic dynamics (QG) or surface quasi-geostrophic (SQG) turbulence dominate and an inertial subrange exists, a steep SSH wavenumber spectrum is expected with k-5 for QG turbulence and a flatter k-11/3 for SQG turbulence. However, inspection of the spectral slopes in the mesoscale band of 70 to 250 km shows that the altimeter wavenumber slopes typically are much flatter than the QG or SQG predictions over most of the ocean. Comparison of the altimeter wavenumber spectra with the spectra estimated from the output of an eddy resolving global ocean circulation model (the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM, at 1/25 resolution), which is forced by high frequency winds and includes the astronomical forcing of the sun and the moon, suggests that the flatter slopes of the altimeter may arise from three possible sources, the presence of internal waves, the lack of an inertial subrange in the 70 to 250 km band and noise or submesoscales at small scales. When the wavenumber spectra of SSH and KE are estimated near the internal tide generating regions, the resulting spectra are much flatter than the expectations of QG or SQG theory. If the height and velocity variability are separated into low frequency (periods greater than 2 days) and high frequency (periods less than a day), then a different pattern emerges with a relatively flat wavenumber spectrum at high frequency and a steeper wavenumber spectrum at low frequency. The stationary internal tides can be removed from the altimeter spectrum, which steepens the spectral slopes in the energetic internal wave regions. Away from generating regions where the internal waves

  16. Inferring Neuronal Dynamics from Calcium Imaging Data Using Biophysical Models and Bayesian Inference

    PubMed Central

    Rahmati, Vahid; Kirmse, Knut; Marković, Dimitrije; Holthoff, Knut; Kiebel, Stefan J.

    2016-01-01

    Calcium imaging has been used as a promising technique to monitor the dynamic activity of neuronal populations. However, the calcium trace is temporally smeared which restricts the extraction of quantities of interest such as spike trains of individual neurons. To address this issue, spike reconstruction algorithms have been introduced. One limitation of such reconstructions is that the underlying models are not informed about the biophysics of spike and burst generations. Such existing prior knowledge might be useful for constraining the possible solutions of spikes. Here we describe, in a novel Bayesian approach, how principled knowledge about neuronal dynamics can be employed to infer biophysical variables and parameters from fluorescence traces. By using both synthetic and in vitro recorded fluorescence traces, we demonstrate th