Edge waves excited by underwater landslides : scenarios in the sea of Marmara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinan Özeren, Mehmet; Postacioglu, Nazmi; Canlı, Umut; Gasperini, Luca

2014-05-01

In this work we quantify the travel distance of edge waves created by submarine landslide over slopes of finite length. Edge waves, if generated, can constitute severe coastal hazard because they can travel long distances along the shores. In the Sea of Marmara there are several submarine masses susceptible to slide in case of a big earthquake on the Main Marmara Fault and some damage scenarios might involve edge waves. The edge waves generated by landslide Tsunamis over slopes of infinite lenghts are recently studied by Sammarco and Renzi (Landslide tsunamis propagating along a plane beach, 2008, Journal of Fluid Mech.). However the infinite slope length assumption causes a perfect confinement of the waves over the coastal slope, thereby overestimating the edge wave damage. Because of this, in their work there is no alongshore length scale over which these waves can lose their energy. In the real worls, the off-shore limiting depth will be finite and the off-shore direction wave vector will not be completely complex, pointing to radiation damping of these edge waves. In this work we analytically quantify the amount of this damping and we estimate the travel distance of the edge waves along the shoreline as a function of the limiting depth. We examine some some scenarios in the north coast of the Sea of Marmara and the northern shelf to quantify the edge waves. Since the method does not require high-resolution numerical computing, it can be used to calculate the edge-wave related risk factor anywhere with submarine landslide risk.

OBS development for long term observation in the Marmara Sea, NW Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Narumi; Shimizu, Satoshi; Maekawa, Takuya; Kalafat, Dogan; Pinar, Ali; Citak, Seckin; Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

2015-04-01

We have carried out a collaboration study between Japan and Turkey since 2013, which is one of SATREPS projects, "Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in The Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey". The main objective of this project is to reduce risk brought by earthquakes and tsunamis. In particular, the North Anatolian Fault system runs through the Marmara sea and it is expected that the seismic gap exists there according to past seismic studies. The details of seismicity distribution in the Marmara Sea is, however, still insufficient to construct fault model along the active faults. Therefore, we prepare ten ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs) to realize long term observation. We aim to identify size and depth of seismogenic zones using micro seismicity. In addition, we need to cover relative broad area from off-shore Istanbul city to the western end of the Marmara Sea. To clear these conditions, OBS specifications we need are high dynamic range and low instrument noise to observe micro seismicity, low electrical consumption to realize long term observation of over one year, high cost performance to cover the broad area for OBS installation, low cost implementation, and good operability to treat by relatively small number of persons. All items, which are three components velocity sensor, batteries, a recorder, a GPS receiver, a transponder and its transducer to control OBS retrieval, a flasher and a beacon, are installed in the 17 inches glass sphere. The natural frequency of the velocity sensor is 4.5 Hz and the frequency range of our OBS is from 4.5 Hz to 250 Hz. Data sampling is selectable among 100 Hz, 250 Hz and 500 Hz. Because our OBS is deployed by free fall, accuracy of the OBS clock is essentially one of important factors, and it is less than 0.1 ppm. And the resolution of A/D conversion performed on the recorder is 24 bit and we keep the dynamic range of over 135 dB. These data is stored on a semiconductor memory and the capacity is over

Offshore seismicity in the western Marmara Sea, Turkey, revealed by ocean bottom observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, Yojiro; Takahashi, Narumi; Citak, Seckin; Kalafat, Doǧan; Pinar, Ali; Gürbüz, Cemil; Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

2015-04-01

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) extends 1600 km westward from a junction with the East Anatolian Fault at the Karliova Triple Junction in eastern Turkey, across northern Turkey and into the Aegean Sea, accommodating about 25 mm/yr of right-lateral motion between Anatolia and the Eurasian plate. Since 1939, devastating earthquakes with magnitude greater than seven ruptured NAF westward, starting from 1939 Erzincan (Ms=7.9) at the eastern Turkey and including the latest 1999 Izmit-Golcuk (Ms=7.7) and the Duzce (Ms=7.4) earthquakes in the Marmara region. Considering the fault segments ruptured by the May 24th, 2014 Northern Aegean earthquake (Mw=6.9), the only un-ruptured segments left behind the 1600 km long NAF locate beneath the Marmara Sea and those segments keep their mystery due to their underwater location. To consider the earthquake hazard and disaster mitigation, the detailed information about fault geometry and its stick-slip behavior beneath the western Marmara Sea is very important. Thus, we started to operate a series of ocean bottom seismographic (OBS) observations to estimate the fault geometry from microearthquake distribution. As a first step, we deployed 3 pop-up type OBSs on 20th of March 2014 as a trial observation, and recovered them on 18th of June 2014. Although one of the OBSs worked only 6 days from the start of the observation, other two OBSs functioned properly during the whole 3-month observation period. We first searched for the microearthquakes missing by the land seismic network and estimated their precious location by using the initial 6 days data, i.e., using all the temporary OBS stations. Although there are only 3 earthquakes listed on the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) catalogue, we could identify 41 earthquakes with more than 5 picking data of P and S first arrivals, and two-third of them located within the OBS network. We found the earthquake cluster along the main NAF and whose depth interval is 12

Seismotectonics of the Armutlu peninsula (Marmara Sea, NW Turkey) from geological field observation and regional moment tensor inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinscher, J.; Krüger, F.; Woith, H.; Lühr, B. G.; Hintersberger, E.; Irmak, T. S.; Baris, S.

2013-11-01

The Armutlu peninsula, located in the eastern Marmara Sea, coincides with the western end of the rupture of the 17 August 1999, İzmit MW 7.6 earthquake which is the penultimate event of an apparently westward migrating series of strong and disastrous earthquakes along the NAFZ during the past century. We present new seismotectonic data of this key region in order to evaluate previous seismotectonic models and their implications for seismic hazard assessment in the eastern Marmara Sea. Long term kinematics were investigated by performing paleo strain reconstruction from geological field investigations by morphotectonic and kinematic analysis of exposed brittle faults. Short term kinematics were investigated by inverting for the moment tensor of 13 small to moderate recent earthquakes using surface wave amplitude spectra. Our results confirm previous models interpreting the eastern Marmara Sea Region as an active transtensional pull-apart environment associated with significant NNE-SSW extension and vertical displacement. At the northern peninsula, long term deformation pattern did not change significantly since Pliocene times contradicting regional tectonic models which postulate a newly formed single dextral strike slip fault in the Marmara Sea Region. This area is interpreted as a horsetail splay fault structure associated with a major normal fault segment that we call the Waterfall Fault. Apart from the Waterfall Fault, the stress strain relation appears complex associated with a complicated internal fault geometry, strain partitioning, and reactivation of pre-existing plane structures. At the southern peninsula, recent deformation indicates active pull-apart tectonics constituted by NE-SW trending dextral strike slip faults. Earthquakes generated by stress release along large rupture zones seem to be less probable at the northern, but more probable at the southern peninsula. Additionally, regional seismicity appears predominantly driven by plate boundary

Integrative study of a new cold-seep mussel (Mollusca: Bivalvia) associated with chemosynthetic symbionts in the Marmara Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritt, Bénédicte; Duperron, Sébastien; Lorion, Julien; Sara Lazar, Cassandre; Sarrazin, Jozée

2012-09-01

Recently, small Idas-like mussels have been discovered living on carbonate crusts associated with cold-seeps in the Marmara Sea. These mussels, here referred to as Idas-like nov. sp., differ morphologically and genetically from another species identified as Idas aff. modiolaeformis, living in the same type of ecosystem in the Nile Deep-Sea Fan (eastern Mediterranean Sea). A phylogenetic analysis confirms the distinction between the two species, which belong to highly divergent lineages. Carbon stable isotope values, as well as the detection of thiotroph-related bacteria in the gill tissue, support the presence of a symbiotic, thiotroph-derived nutrition. In contrast, Idas aff. modiolaeformis displays six different types of symbionts. Finally our size-frequency data suggest that the recruitment is continuous in the examined area. The present study extends the documented distribution of symbiont-bearing mussels to the Marmara Sea, and contributes to the characterisation of biological communities in this recently explored area.

10 th of July, 1894 İstanbul Earthquake (Marmara Sea, Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaltırak, Cenk; Şahin, Murat

2017-04-01

The sea of Marmara is a region with the longest historical earthquake record of our planet. The earthquake of 10 July 1894 in Istanbul is the last earthquake of the historical period before the beginning of the instrumental period in the region. The magnitude and location of this earthquake and also its relationship with the North Anatolian Fault should be discussed in literature. Previous studies have not fully analyzed the historical data of 1894 earthquakes. For this reason, conflicting views are put forward regarding an earthquake in Marmara in the future. According to the historical records, the major damage was in the Istanbul Peninsula, Avcılar, Adalar, Karamürsel and Yalova. Due to its formation properties, it was effective in remote areas (İzmit, Gölcük, Adapazarı). It is clear that the most damage was in Old Istanbul and Prince Island. The tension cracks in different directions were observed in Heybeliada, Büyükada and Burgazada. There are observations to be interpreted as a tsunami wave about one and a half meter-height between Avcılar and Kartal. The submarine telegraph line extending from Kartal to Marmara Sea was broken at three points in the east of Büyükada. According to the damage assessment after the earthquake and other observations, it is understood that this earthquake was along the Adalar Fault. When considering seismic and multibeam data, it is apparent that the Adalar Fault was composed of echolon segments. The submarine landslides were mapped in front of the fault scarp. The Adalar Fault is a 45 km-long, 80o SW-dipping right-lateral normal oblique fault. The tsunami scenarios that we modelld along this fault are compatible with historical observations along the coast of İstanbul. Our GIS-based intensity scenario shows that the magnitude of the 1894 Istanbul Earthquake is Mw 7.

Initial results from MARmara SuperSITE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Necmioglu, Ocal; Favali, Paolo; Douglas, John; Mathieu, Pierre-Philippe; Geli, Louis; Ergintav, Semih; Oguz Ozel, Asım; Tan, Onur; Gurbuz, Cemil; Erdik, Mustafa

2014-05-01

MARSite Project was initiated in November 2012 under the EC/FP-7 framework as an initiative towards establishment of new directions in seismic hazard assessment through focused earth observation in Marmara Region. Within MARSite, collection of the first comprehensive data set of fluids composition around the Sea of Marmara has been accomplished and first insight in the geochemical features of the fluids are expelled from tectonic structures around the Sea of Marmara. GPS time series and velocity fields are periodically updated and a project proposal has been prepared for Supersite initiative to take SAR data and integrate the results with in-situ data sets, which is accepted by the scientific committee of GEOSS. In the meantime, special focus was given to develop the processing algorithms, starting from low level atmospheric correction to high level modeling routines. Considerable progress has been made in the novel design of a multiparameter borehole system consisting of very wide dynamic range and stable borehole (VBB) broad band seismic sensor also incorporating 3-D strain meter, tilt meter, and temperature and local hydrostatic pressure measuring devices. Borehole and surface array locations and borehole bedrock depth of 137 m has been identified. A modeling scheme for the scenario earthquake simulation has been set up in order to realize processing of real-time high-rate GPS data and simulating of scenario earthquakes. The probability of occurrence for the fault segmentation in the Marmara region were calculated using the Poisson, BPT and BPT with a stress interaction models for time intervals of 5-10-30 and 50 years. High resolution seismic reflection and multibeam data in the easternmost Cinarcik basin obtained during the cruise MARMARA 2013 carried out onboard the CNR R/V Urania ship provided information on diffuse gravitational failures. An in situ multi-parameter observational system for landslide monitoring, including displacement, rainfall and seismic

Complex Hydrocarbon Seepages Along a Short Segment of the North Anatolian Fault (Sea of Marmara, Turkey).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffine, L.; Croguennec, C.; Donval, J. P.; Rinnert, E.; Germain, Y.; Bignon, L.; Scalabrin, C.; Ondreas, H.; Alix, A. S.; Legoix, L.; Bermell, S.; Géli, L.

2016-02-01

The Sea of Marmara represents an outstanding environment for geoscientists to investigate on complex hydrocarbon migration through faults. It is characterized by a large number of seeps located along the faults and the basin edge, very diverse in composition, origin and flux. MARSITECruise in November 2014 corresponds to the latest expedition in a long series of scientific expeditions started in early 2000. During this multidisciplinary expedition, an ROV dive has been undertaken to study natural hydrocarbon emissions along the Ganos fault, a segment of the North Anatolian Faults (NAF) located at the westernmost part of the Sea of Marmara. The seafloor inspection revealed the presence of both oil and gas seeps. Six gas seeps have been sampled using an in-situ pressure-preservation device. The selection of the seeps to sample relied on both in situRaman analyses, followed by onboard measurement of the molecular and isotopic compositions of the collected gases. The gas flow-rate of each seep was also measured prior sampling. The results show that the sampled gases are highly heterogeneous from one seep to another, with methane molecular composition and δ13C varying between 2 and 99 % -mol and 34 and 58.4 ‰, respectively. In this communication, the hydrocarbon origin and flow-rate are discussed, as well as the influence area of each source. Acoustic data combined with video recording from the ROV-dive have also been used to discuss their fate into the water column. References Bourry, C., B. Chazallon, J. L. Charlou, J. P. Donval, L. Ruffine, P. Henry, L. Géli, M. N. Cagatay, S. Inan, and M. Moreau (2009), Free gas and gas hydrates from the Sea of Marmara, Turkey Chemical and structural characterization, Chem. Geol., 264(1-4), 197-206. Dupré, S., C. Scalabrin, L. Géli, P. Henry, C. Grall, J.-B. Tary, M. N. Çagatay, and C. Imren (2010), the MARMESONET Scientific Party Team Widespread gas emissions in the Sea of Marmara in relation with the tectonic and

Improved detection and relocation of micro-earthquakes applied to the Sea of Marmara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tary, J. B.; Evangelia, B.; Géli, L.; Lomax, A.

2016-12-01

The Sea of Marmara is located at the western end of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). This part of the NAF is considered as a seismic gap, being between the Izmit and Duzce earthquakes to the East and the Ganos earthquake to the West. Improved detection and location of seismicity in the Sea of Marmara is important for defining the seismic hazard in this area.On July 25, 2011, a Mw 5 earthquake occurred below the Western High in the western part of the Sea of Marmara. This earthquake as well as its aftershock sequence were recorded by a network of 10 ocean bottom seismometers (Ifremer) as well as seafloor observatories (KOERI). The OBSs were deployed from mid-April, 2011, to the end of July, 2011.The aftershock sequence is characterized by deep seismicity ( 10-15 km) around the main shock and shallow seismicity. Some of the shallow seismicity could be located at a similar depth as gas prone sediment layers below the Western High. The exact causes of these shallow aftershocks are still unclear. To better define this aftershock sequence, we use the match filter technique with a selection of aftershocks as templates to dig out child events from the continuous data streams. The templates are cross-correlated with the continuous data for stations with absolute time picks. The cross-correlation coefficients are then summed over all stations and components, and we then compute its median absolute deviation (MAD). Signals are detected when the summed cross-correlation time series exceeds a given number of times the MAD. Using a conservative detection threshold, we obtain a 10-fold increase in the number of events. The newly detected events are then relocated using the double-difference technique. With these newly detected events, we investigate the nucleation phase of the main shock and the aftershock sequence, as well as the possible triggering of the shallow aftershocks by the deeper seismicity.

High Resolution Multichannel Imaging of Basin Growth Along a Continental Transform: The Marmara Sea Along the North Anatolian Fault in NW Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steckler, M. S.; Çifçi, G.; Demirbağ, E.; Akhun, S. D.; Büyükaşik, E.; Cevatoglu, M.; Coşkun, S.; Diebold, J.; Dondurur, D.; Gürçay, S.; Imren, C.; Kücük, H. M.; Kurt, H.; Özer, P. G.; Perinçek, E.; Seeber, L.; Shillington, D.; Sorlien, C.; Timur, D.

2008-12-01

The 1500-km-long North Anatolian continental transform (NAF) accommodates the westward motion of the Anatolian platelet relative to Asia. The Marmara Trough in western Turkey is a large composite Quaternary structure that includes three main extensional basins with water depths reaching ~1200m separated by shallower ridges. Syntectonic sedimentation in the basins with highly variable sea-level-related changes in accumulation rates provide valuable time-space markers for reconstructing structural growth and basin development in the Marmara Sea. The TAMAM (Turkish-American MArmara Multichannel) Project is a collaboration between several US and Turkish research institutes. During July 2008, TAMAM collected ~2700 km of multichannel profiles in the Marmara Sea using the R/V K. Piri Reis. MCS data were sampled with a 1-ms interval on the first 72 channels with 6.25m group spacing in a 600m streamer. The source was a 45/45 cu. in. GI air gun, which was fired every 12.5 or18.75m. The gun-streamer offset was 40 or 100 m depending on water depth. Both the gun and streamer were towed at a depth of 3 or 4m. This configuration yielded high-resolution images of the stratigraphy in the Marmara Sea. TAMAM follows a recent series of impressive seismotectonic studies of the NAF in the Marmara Sea area. Previous seismic cruises focused on deep penetration MCS imaging of the overall basin structure and faulting or very high-resolution imaging of the near-surface faulting. TAMAM fills a gap in resolution imaging the stratigraphy that records the history of deformation in the basins and linkages between faults. We will present preliminary high-resolution images of the stratigraphy and tectonics beneath the Marmara Sea highlighting the following exciting observations and initial results from this experiment: 1) Improved stratigraphic correlations between the major basins, a primary goal of the experiment; 2) Clearer imaging of active faults, including the NAF, the less studied southern

Borehole Strainmeters and the monitoring of the North Anatolian Fault in the Marmara Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, W.; Mencin, D.; Bilham, R. G.; Gottlieb, M. H.; Van Boskirk, E.; Hodgkinson, K. M.; Mattioli, G. S.; Acarel, D.; Bulut, F.; Bohnhoff, M.; Ergintav, S.; Bal, O.; Ozener, H.

2016-12-01

Twice in the past 1000 years a sequence of large earthquakes has propagated from east to west along the North Anatolian fault (NAF) in Turkey towards Istanbul, with the final earthquake in the sequence destroying the city. This occurred most recently in 1509. The population of greater Istanbul is 20 million and the next large earthquake of the current sequence is considered imminent. The most likely location for a major earthquake on the NAF is considered the Marmara-Sea/Princes-Island segment south and southeast of Istanbul [Bohnhoff et al., 2013]. Insights into the nucleation and future behavior of this segment of the NAF are anticipated from measuring deformation near the fault, and in particular possible aseismic slip processes on the fault that may precede as well as accompany any future rupture. Aseismic slip processes near the western end of the Izmit rupture, near where it passes offshore beneath the Sea of Marmara near Izmit, has been successfully monitored using InSAR, GPS, and creepmeters. A 1mm amplitude, 24h creep event was recorded by our creepmeter near Izmit in 2015. These instruments and methods are of limited utility in monitoring the submarine portion of the NAF Data from numerous borehole strainmeters (BSM) along the San Andreas Fault, including those that were installed and maintained as part of the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO), demonstrate that the characteristics of creep propagation events with sub-cm slip amplitudes can be quantified for slip events at 10 km source-to-sensor distances. Such distances are comparable to those between the mainland and the submarine NAF, with some islands allowing installations within 3 km of the fault. In a collaborative program (GeoGONAF) between the National Science Foundation, GeoForschungsZentrum, Turkish Disaster and Emergency Management Authority, and the Kandilli Observatory, we installed an array of six PBO type BSM systems, which include strainmeters and seismometers, around the eastern

3D Vp heterogeneity beneath the Marmara Sea: Shot tomography on a 2D OBS array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayrakci, Gaye; Laigle, Mireille; Bécel, Anne; Hirn, Alfred; Taymaz, Tuncay; Yolsal-Ćevikbilen, Seda

2010-05-01

After the 1999 Izmit and Duzce earthquakes, the multi-method SEISMARMARA seismic survey has been carried out with the aim to constrain the seismogenic part of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) immersed into the Marmara Sea. During this survey, a network of 35 3-components Japanese Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBS) placed on a 2D grid and land stations have recorded the current seismic activity for a period of 6 weeks and 2000 km of MCS profiles shot in the North Marmara Trough (NMT). In the present study the first arrival times of artificial sources are inverted with the well known local earthquake tomography (LET) code Simulps in order to approach the 3D upper-crustal heterogeneity which then could be implemented as initial model easily and without any loss of information into a joint inversion of the local earthquake data and shots. The 3D upper-crustal P-wave velocity heterogeneity of the North Marmara Trough (NMT) is derived by inverting a set of 16000 first arrival times of artificial sources. We have checked the sensitivity of the results to the grid geometry, the control parameters and the 1D initial velocity model. Due to a huge basement depth variation between the NMT rims and the trough itself, we have then designed a 3D a priori model by taking into account the sea-floor depth and the topographic trend of the basement. This 3D initial model allowed to include the shots recorded by 5 land stations into the inverted data set and to improve the image resolution at the borders of NMT. It allowed also to have a denser inversion grid which is needed for constraining the small wave-length heterogeneity of the Marmara Sea. The artefacts which may be due to the very large perturbations with respect to the 1D initial model were avoided with the use of this 3D initial model. The reliability of the results are validated by synthetic tests and by the comparison with the seismic reflection and refraction profiles which principal characteristics such as the sedimentary

Morphometric analysis of the Marmara Sea river basins, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elbaşı, Emre; Ozdemir, Hasan

2014-05-01

The drainage basin, the fundamental unit of the fluvial landscape, has been focus of research aimed at understanding the geometric characteristics of the master channel and its tributary network. This geometry is referred to as the basin morphometry and is nicely reviewed by Abrahams (1984). A great amount of research has focused on geometric characteristic of drainage basins, including the topology of the stream networks, and quantitative description of drainage texture, pattern, shape, and relief characteristics. Evaluation of morphometric parameters necessitates the analysis of various drainage parameters such as ordering of the various streams, measurement of basin area and perimeter, length of drainage channels, drainage density (Dd), stream frequency (Fs), bifurcation ratio (Rb), texture ratio (T), basin relief (Bh), Ruggedness number (Rn), time of concentration (Tc), hypsometric curve and integral (Hc and Hi) (Horton, 1932, Schumn, 1956, Strahler, 1957; Verstappen 1983; Keller and Pinter, 2002; Ozdemir and Bird, 2009). These morphometric parameters have generally been used to predict flood peaks, to assess sediment yield, and to estimate erosion rates in the basins. River basins of the Marmara Sea, has an area of approximately 40,000 sqkm, are the most important basins in Turkey based on their dense populations, industry and transportation systems. The primary aim of this study is to determine and analyse of morphometric characteristics of the Marmara Sea river basins using 10 m resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and to evaluate of the results. For these purposes, digital 10 m contour maps scaled 1:25000 and geological maps scaled 1:100000 were used as the main data sources in the study. 10 m resolution DEM data were created using the contour maps and then drainage networks and their watersheds were extracted using D8 pour point model. Finally, linear, areal and relief morphometries were applied to the river basins using Geographic Information Systems

The central branch of the North Anatolian Fault In The Southern Marmara Sea: Evidence for a distributed, Holocene-active fault system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barın, Burcu; Okay, Seda; Çifçi, Günay; Dondurur, Derman; Cormier, Marie Helene; Sorlien, Christopher; Meriç İlkimen, Elif

2015-04-01

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a major right-lateral transform fault in northern Turkey that branches westward into several strands in the vicinity of the Sea of Marmara. The main northern branch bisects the Marmara Sea from east to west, and seismic reflection profiles acquired over the past 15 years have revealed its complex geometry. Further, the several basins that developed along that branch record stratigraphic sequences that provide the needed framework to interpret the relative timing of tectonic deformation in the Marmara Sea. In contrast, the central branch, which snakes across the shallow southern shelf of the Marmara Sea, has been much less investigated. Here, we analyze a comprehensive dataset of high-resolution multi-channel, sparker, and CHIRP seismic profiles, which were collected with the facilities of Seismic Laboratory (SeisLab) in the Institute of Marine Sciences and Technology and R/V K. Piri Reis belonging to Dokuz Eylül University, along the central branch in 2008 (TAMAM expedition) and in 2013-2014 (SoMAR expedition), within the framework of a bilateral TÜBİTAK - NSF project. In combination with other existing seismic profiles, these new data reveal that the Central Branch consists of multiple faults strands that are distributed across the broad southern shelf. They also reveal that many of these strands are Holocene-active, although they slip at slower rates than the northern branch and are associated with slower basin subsidence or local uplift. Lastly, seismic data image a system of half-grabens across the southern shelf that are associated with the strands of the central branch. Strata within these half-grabens are progressively tilted and consistently dip to the south. Further analysis will be conducted to determine whether the formation of these grabens are controlled by oblique slip on the strands of the central branch, or by slip on detachment faults beneath the southern shelf.

Assessment of tsunami resilience of Haydarpaşa Port in the Sea of Marmara by high-resolution numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aytore, Betul; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet; Zaytsev, Andrey; Cankaya, Zeynep Ceren; Suzen, Mehmet Lütfi

2016-08-01

Turkey is highly prone to earthquakes because of active fault zones in the region. The Marmara region located at the western extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is one of the most tectonically active zones in Turkey. Numerous catastrophic events such as earthquakes or earthquake/landslide-induced tsunamis have occurred in the Marmara Sea basin. According to studies on the past tsunami records, the Marmara coasts have been hit by 35 different tsunami events in the last 2000 years. The recent occurrences of catastrophic tsunamis in the world's oceans have also raised awareness about tsunamis that might take place around the Marmara coasts. Similarly, comprehensive studies on tsunamis, such as preparation of tsunami databases, tsunami hazard analysis and assessments, risk evaluations for the potential tsunami-prone regions, and establishing warning systems have accelerated. However, a complete tsunami inundation analysis in high resolution will provide a better understanding of the effects of tsunamis on a specific critical structure located in the Marmara Sea. Ports are one of those critical structures that are susceptible to marine disasters. Resilience of ports and harbors against tsunamis are essential for proper, efficient, and successful rescue operations to reduce loss of life and property. Considering this, high-resolution simulations have been carried out in the Marmara Sea by focusing on Haydarpaşa Port of the megacity Istanbul. In the first stage of simulations, the most critical tsunami sources possibly effective for Haydarpaşa Port were inputted, and the computed tsunami parameters at the port were compared to determine the most critical tsunami scenario. In the second stage of simulations, the nested domains from 90 m gird size to 10 m grid size (in the port region) were used, and the most critical tsunami scenario was modeled. In the third stage of simulations, the topography of the port and its regions were used in the two nested

Discussion: a critique of Possible waterways between the Marmara Sea and the Black Sea in the late Quaternary: evidence from ostracod and foraminifer assemblages in lakes İznik and Sapanca, Turkey, Geo-Marine Letters, 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaltırak, Cenk; Ülgen, Umut B.; Zabcı, Cengiz; Franz, Sven Oliver; Ön, Sena Akçer; Sakınç, Mehmet; Çağatay, M. Namık; Alpar, Bedri; Öztürk, Kurultay; Tunoğlu, Cemal; Ünlü, Selma

2012-06-01

The identification of past connection routes between the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara, other than the traditional one through to the Bosphorus Strait, would be of considerable interest to the international scientific community. Nazik et al. (Geo-Mar Lett 31:75-86 (2011) doi:10.1007/s00367-010-0216-9) suggest the possibility of two alternative waterway connections via lakes Sapanca and İznik. Their Black Sea to Sea of Marmara multi-connection hypothesis, which is based on undated marine fossils collected in both lakes from surficial grab samples, conflicts with many earlier studies. In this contribution, the hypothesis and the underlying data are discussed in the light of previous tectonic, sedimentological and limnological findings showing that it is impossible to have had marine connections through lakes Sapanca and İznik during the last 11.5 ka. Global sea-level trends and tectonic uplift rates would accommodate a connection between the Sea of Marmara and Lake İznik in the middle Pleistocene. Uplift rates for the northern block of the North Anatolian Fault, when compared with the global sea-level curve, clearly indicate that there cannot have been a connection through the İzmit Gulf-Lake Sapanca-Sakarya Valley for at least the past 500 ka. Moreover, borehole sediments along the western shores of Lake Sapanca, which reach down to the bedrock, do not contain any marine fossils.

The influence of atmospheric circulation types on regional patterns of precipitation in Marmara (NW Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltacı, H.; Kındap, T.; Ünal, A.; Karaca, M.

2017-02-01

In this study, regional patterns of precipitation in Marmara are described for the first time by means of Ward's hierarchical cluster analysis. Daily values of winter precipitation data based on 19 meteorological stations were used for the period from 1960 to 2012. Five clusters of coherent zones were determined, namely Black Sea-Marmara, Black Sea, Marmara, Thrace, and Aegean sub-regions. To investigate the prevailing atmospheric circulation types (CTs) that cause precipitation occurrence and intensity in these five different rainfall sub-basins, objective Lamb weather type (LWT) methodology was applied to National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis of daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. Precipitation occurrence suggested that wet CTs (i.e. N, NE, NW, and C) offer a high chance of precipitation in all sub-regions. For the eastern (western) part of the region, the high probability of rainfall occurrence is shown under the influence of E (SE, S, SW) atmospheric CTs. In terms of precipitation intensity, N and C CTs had the highest positive gradients in all the sub-basins of the Marmara. In addition, although Marmara and Black Sea sub-regions have the highest daily rainfall potential during NE types, high daily rainfall totals are recorded in all sub-regions except the Black Sea during NW types.

Physically-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Using Broad-Band Ground Motion Simulation: a Case Study for Prince Islands Fault, Marmara Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mert, A.

2016-12-01

The main motivation of this study is the impending occurrence of a catastrophic earthquake along the Prince Island Fault (PIF) in Marmara Sea and the disaster risk around Marmara region, especially in İstanbul. This study provides the results of a physically-based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) methodology, using broad-band strong ground motion simulations, for sites within the Marmara region, Turkey, due to possible large earthquakes throughout the PIF segments in the Marmara Sea. The methodology is called physically-based because it depends on the physical processes of earthquake rupture and wave propagation to simulate earthquake ground motion time histories. We include the effects of all considerable magnitude earthquakes. To generate the high frequency (0.5-20 Hz) part of the broadband earthquake simulation, the real small magnitude earthquakes recorded by local seismic array are used as an Empirical Green's Functions (EGF). For the frequencies below 0.5 Hz the simulations are obtained using by Synthetic Green's Functions (SGF) which are synthetic seismograms calculated by an explicit 2D/3D elastic finite difference wave propagation routine. Using by a range of rupture scenarios for all considerable magnitude earthquakes throughout the PIF segments we provide a hazard calculation for frequencies 0.1-20 Hz. Physically based PSHA used here follows the same procedure of conventional PSHA except that conventional PSHA utilizes point sources or a series of point sources to represent earthquakes and this approach utilizes full rupture of earthquakes along faults. Further, conventional PSHA predicts ground-motion parameters using by empirical attenuation relationships, whereas this approach calculates synthetic seismograms for all magnitude earthquakes to obtain ground-motion parameters. PSHA results are produced for 2%, 10% and 50% hazards for all studied sites in Marmara Region.

Physically based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using broadband ground motion simulation: a case study for the Prince Islands Fault, Marmara Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mert, Aydin; Fahjan, Yasin M.; Hutchings, Lawrence J.; Pınar, Ali

2016-08-01

The main motivation for this study was the impending occurrence of a catastrophic earthquake along the Prince Island Fault (PIF) in the Marmara Sea and the disaster risk around the Marmara region, especially in Istanbul. This study provides the results of a physically based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methodology, using broadband strong ground motion simulations, for sites within the Marmara region, Turkey, that may be vulnerable to possible large earthquakes throughout the PIF segments in the Marmara Sea. The methodology is called physically based because it depends on the physical processes of earthquake rupture and wave propagation to simulate earthquake ground motion time histories. We included the effects of all considerable-magnitude earthquakes. To generate the high-frequency (0.5-20 Hz) part of the broadband earthquake simulation, real, small-magnitude earthquakes recorded by a local seismic array were used as empirical Green's functions. For the frequencies below 0.5 Hz, the simulations were obtained by using synthetic Green's functions, which are synthetic seismograms calculated by an explicit 2D /3D elastic finite difference wave propagation routine. By using a range of rupture scenarios for all considerable-magnitude earthquakes throughout the PIF segments, we produced a hazard calculation for frequencies of 0.1-20 Hz. The physically based PSHA used here followed the same procedure as conventional PSHA, except that conventional PSHA utilizes point sources or a series of point sources to represent earthquakes, and this approach utilizes the full rupture of earthquakes along faults. Furthermore, conventional PSHA predicts ground motion parameters by using empirical attenuation relationships, whereas this approach calculates synthetic seismograms for all magnitudes of earthquakes to obtain ground motion parameters. PSHA results were produced for 2, 10, and 50 % hazards for all sites studied in the Marmara region.

Seismic Evidence And Complex Trace Attributes Of Shallow Gas Structures In The Sea Of Marmara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydemir, Seval; Okay, Seda; Cifci, Gunay; Dondurur, Derman; Sorlien, Christopher; Cormier, Marie-Helene

2015-04-01

Analysis of multi-channel seismic reflection, sparker and chirp data from Marmara Sea observed various shallow gas indicators including seismic chimneys, bright spots, mud diapirs, pockmarks, and acoustic blanking related to gas accumulations along North Anatolian Fault (NAF) system which branches out towards the west into the in Marmara Sea. Middle branch of the (NAF) is the place where distinct amount of seismic activity has occurred and gas deposits have been observed. This study is also devoted to evaluate the gas related structures with seismic attributes of multichannel seismic reflection data which have been collected at South Marmara shelf. The dataset was collected in September 2013 and July 2014 including nearly 1000 km high Resolution Multichannel Seismic and Chirp data and 967 km Sparker data in the frame of a bilateral TÜBİTAK Project onboard R/V K. Piri Reis. The streamer has 168 or 144 channel and group interval was 6.25 m. The source was 45+45 inch GI gun fired every 12.5 or 25 m producing high-resolution seismic signal between 10-250 Hz frequency bands. The Chirp data was collected with a transducer, which produced acoustic signal between 2.75-6.75 kHz. The source of sparker system was used to 1000 J. The data have been processed using a conventional data processing flow. In addition attributes were applied to final migration sections and than was tried to find gas accumulations with Reflection strength section, instantaneous frequency section and apparent polarity. Reflection strength section has strong reflections (bright spot). Also instantaneous frequency section has low-frequency zone depending on absorption where gas accumulations are expected. Apparent polarity section has negative polarity anamoly due to low acoustic impedance where gas accumulations are expected in sediments. In addition, attributes were coincided with sparker and chirp data where expected shallow gas accumulations.

Reassessment of probabilistic seismic hazard in the Marmara region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kalkan, Erol; Gulkan, Polat; Yilmaz, Nazan; Çelebi, Mehmet

2009-01-01

In 1999, the eastern coastline of the Marmara region (Turkey) witnessed increased seismic activity on the North Anatolian fault (NAF) system with two damaging earthquakes (M 7.4 Kocaeli and M 7.2 D??zce) that occurred almost three months apart. These events have reduced stress on the western segment of the NAF where it continues under the Marmara Sea. The undersea fault segments have been recently explored using bathymetric and reflection surveys. These recent findings helped scientists to understand the seismotectonic environment of the Marmara basin, which has remained a perplexing tectonic domain. On the basis of collected new data, seismic hazard of the Marmara region is reassessed using a probabilistic approach. Two different earthquake source models: (1) the smoothed-gridded seismicity model and (2) fault model and alternate magnitude-frequency relations, Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic, were used with local and imported ground-motion-prediction equations. Regional exposure is computed and quantified on a set of hazard maps that provide peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 sec on uniform firm-rock site condition (760 m=sec average shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m). These acceleration levels were computed for ground motions having 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yr, corresponding to return periods of about 2475 and 475 yr, respectively. The maximum PGA computed (at rock site) is 1.5g along the fault segments of the NAF zone extending into the Marmara Sea. The new maps generally show 10% to 15% increase for PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 sec spectral acceleration values across much of Marmara compared to previous regional hazard maps. Hazard curves and smooth design spectra for three site conditions: rock, soil, and soft-soil are provided for the Istanbul metropolitan area as possible tools in future risk estimates.

Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey Part3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneda, Yoshiyuki; Ozener, Haluk; Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Kalafat, Dogan; Ozgur Citak, Seckin; Takahashi, Narumi; Hori, Takane; Hori, Muneo; Sakamoto, Mayumi; Pinar, Ali; Oguz Ozel, Asim; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Tanircan, Gulum; Demirtas, Ahmet

2017-04-01

There have been many destructive earthquakes and tsunamis in the world.The recent events are, 2011 East Japan Earthquake/Tsunami in Japan, 2015 Nepal Earthquake and 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake in Japan, and so on. And very recently a destructive earthquake occurred in Central Italy. In Turkey, the 1999 Izmit Earthquake as the destructive earthquake occurred along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). The NAF crosses the Sea of Marmara and the only "seismic gap" remains beneath the Sea of Marmara. Istanbul with high population similar to Tokyo in Japan, is located around the Sea of Marmara where fatal damages expected to be generated as compound damages including Tsunami and liquefaction, when the next destructive Marmara Earthquake occurs. The seismic risk of Istanbul seems to be under the similar risk condition as Tokyo in case of Nankai Trough earthquake and metropolitan earthquake. It was considered that Japanese and Turkish researchers can share their own experiences during past damaging earthquakes and can prepare for the future large earthquakes in cooperation with each other. Therefore, in 2013 the two countries, Japan and Turkey made an agreement to start a multidisciplinary research project, MarDiM SATREPS. The Project runs researches to aim to raise the preparedness for possible large-scale earthquake and Tsunami disasters in Marmara Region and it has four research groups with the following goals. 1) The first one is Marmara Earthquake Source region observational research group. This group has 4 sub-groups such as Seismicity, Geodesy, Electromagnetics and Trench analyses. Preliminary results such as seismicity and crustal deformation on the sea floor in Sea of Marmara have already achieved. 2) The second group focuses on scenario researches of earthquake occurrence along the North Anatolia Fault and precise tsunami simulation in the Marmara region. Research results from this group are to be the model of earthquake occurrence scenario in Sea of Marmara and the

M≥7 Earthquake rupture forecast and time-dependent probability for the Sea of Marmara region, Turkey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murru, Maura; Akinci, Aybige; Falcone, Guiseppe; Pucci, Stefano; Console, Rodolfo; Parsons, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

We forecast time-independent and time-dependent earthquake ruptures in the Marmara region of Turkey for the next 30 years using a new fault-segmentation model. We also augment time-dependent Brownian Passage Time (BPT) probability with static Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFF) from interacting faults. We calculate Mw > 6.5 probability from 26 individual fault sources in the Marmara region. We also consider a multisegment rupture model that allows higher-magnitude ruptures over some segments of the Northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NNAF) beneath the Marmara Sea. A total of 10 different Mw=7.0 to Mw=8.0 multisegment ruptures are combined with the other regional faults at rates that balance the overall moment accumulation. We use Gaussian random distributions to treat parameter uncertainties (e.g., aperiodicity, maximum expected magnitude, slip rate, and consequently mean recurrence time) of the statistical distributions associated with each fault source. We then estimate uncertainties of the 30-year probability values for the next characteristic event obtained from three different models (Poisson, BPT, and BPT+ΔCFF) using a Monte Carlo procedure. The Gerede fault segment located at the eastern end of the Marmara region shows the highest 30-yr probability, with a Poisson value of 29%, and a time-dependent interaction probability of 48%. We find an aggregated 30-yr Poisson probability of M >7.3 earthquakes at Istanbul of 35%, which increases to 47% if time dependence and stress transfer are considered. We calculate a 2-fold probability gain (ratio time-dependent to time-independent) on the southern strands of the North Anatolian Fault Zone.

The sedimentary records of Holocene environmental changes from the Central High of the Sea of Marmara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filikci, Betul; Çağatay, Namık; Kadir Eriş, Kürşad; Akyol, Mustafa; Yalamaz, Burak; Uçarkuş, Gülsen; Henry, Pierre

2015-04-01

The Sea of Marmara (SoM) is located between the Aegean Sea and the Black Sea, to which it is connected via the Istanbul (Bosphorus) and Canakkale (Dardanelles) straits having sill depths of 65 and 35 m, respectively. It has a two-way water mass exchange with a permanent pycnocline located at 20-25 m water depth. With the objective of determining Holocene paleoenvironmental changes, we studied a 8.36 m-long piston core recovered from the Central High of the SoM at a water depth of 835 m, using multiproxy analyses such as total organic and inorganic carbon, high resolution µ-XRF core scanner analysis, grain size, magnetic susceptibility and density. A 2 cm-thick tephra layer with high K and Zr and relatively low magnetic susceptibility occurs at 2.1 meter below sea floor (mbsf), which is correlated with the Avellino (Somma-Vesuvius, Italy) eruption dated at 3.9 ka BP, according to the previous studies. Using this age and assuming a uniform sedimentation rate, the base of the core dates back to ca 8 ka BP. The core includes organic-rich (sapropelic) sediments with 1.5 % to 2.2%) in its top 3.5 m and bottom 1 m. Sapropelic layers are olive green and in part laminated, and contain occasional reddish brown spots and laminae formed by oxidation of iron monosulphides. The core also contains some few mm- to cm-thick sandy-silty mass-flow units below 2.4 mbsf, some of which could have been triggered by the earthquake activity on the Central High segment of the North Anatolian Fault, just a few km away from the core location. Variations in Ca-Ti ratio suggest millennial-scale climatic changes during the Holocene. Keywords: Sea of Marmara, Holocene paleoenvironmental records, tephra, turbidites, TOC analysis, XRF analysis, physical properties.

Effects of heavy metal pollution on foraminifers in the Marmara Sea (Balıkesir-Canakkale-Tekirdag, Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unal Yumun, Zeki

2017-04-01

ABSTRACT This study aims to investigate the effects of heavy metal pollution on Holocene foraminiferal assemblages in the sediments of Marmara Sea (Balikesir-Canakkale-Tekirdag, Turkey). For this purpose four drilling samples, one from Bandirma (Balikesir/Turkey), two from Erdek Bay (Erdek-Bandirma/Turkey) and one from Tekirdag (Turkey) have been taken. Additionally core samples taken from 43 different locations in the Western Marmara Sea also have been examined. Foraminiferal assemblages were identified and changes in heavy metal concentrations were determined (spatially) in the vertical direction by means of drilling samples; in the vertical direction for geochronology and in the horizontal direction by the areal distribution of the core samples. In this research an average value defined as Pollution Index (PI) was used for the first time in order to summarize the results of geochemical analyses. Within the scope of this method, the pollution index value is obtained by dividing the sum of average value ratios of heavy metal measurement values by the number of measurements. It was observed that the number of individuals and species decreased where the heavy metal measured values (MV) were higher than the pollution index and increased where the heavy metal values were lower than the pollution index when obtained index value was correlated separately with the numbers of foraminifer individuals and species. It was also observed that foraminifera were completely absent in some locations where PI was less than MV. Morphological changes were observed in three foraminifer species, Elphidium crispum, Massilina secans, and Ammonia compacta, in the core samples taken in areas where industrial wastes are discharged into the southern parts of the Marmara Sea. At some locations, between Misakca-Denizkent, and Erdek-Balikesir, Turkey, where the heavy metal density was high it haven't been any foraminifer species were achieved. The pollution index (PI) value measured in this

The Seismic Stratigraphic Record of Quaternary Deformation Across the North Anatolian Fault System in Southern Marmara Sea, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorlien, C. C.; Seeber, L.; Diebold, J.; Shillington, D.; Steckler, M. S.; Gurcay, S.; Kucuk, H. M.; Akhun, S. D.; Timur, D.; Dondurur, D.; Kurt, H.; Perincek, E.; Ozer, P.; Imren, C.; Coskun, S.; Buyukasik, E.; Cevatoglu, M.; Cifci, G.; Demirbag, E.

2008-12-01

We collected high-resolution multichannel seismic reflection (MCS) and chirp seismic data across the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) system in the Marmara Sea aboard the R/V K. Piri Reis during July 2008. Three 1200+ m-deep bathymetric basins are arrayed along the North strand of the NAF. This strand passes closest to Istanbul and is considered to carry most of the current and late Holocene plate motion, but other strands to the south are active and may have been more important in the past. The transverse Central Marmara Ridge, formed by a contractional anticline, separates two of the basins. Filled sedimentary basins underlie the southern shelf, and, adjacent to that shelf, the partly-filled North Imrali basin underlies a 400 m-deep platform. Our chirp data image several strands of the southern fault system, 50 km south of the northern NAF on the inner (southern) shelf, that offset strata which postdate the ~12 ka marine transgression. Another W-striking fault that deforms post-12 ka strata cuts the mid-southern shelf. A WNW-striking segment of the Imrali fault system is associated with normal-separation, 300 m-high sea floor scarps that separate the shelf from the North Imrali basin. This basin is cut by numerous NW-striking normal-separation faults, some deforming the sea floor. At least 4 complexes of shelf edge deltas, whose tops were formed near sea level or lake level, are stacked between 500 and 900 m depth in this downthrown block of the Imrali fault. The originally sub- horizontal tops of each delta are now locally progressively tilted and folded near an ENE-striking branch of the Imrali fault (known as the Yalova fault). Lacking stratigraphic control, we infer that the deltas represent glacial intervals spaced at 100 ka during the late Pleistocene. Assuming a locally constant subsidence rate, with lowstands near -90 m, and the observed 130 m vertical spacing between the deltas, subsidence rates would be ~1.3 mm/yr, and the youngest well-preserved delta would

Environmental and health benefits from designating the Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits as an emission control area (ECA).

PubMed

Viana, M; Fann, N; Tobías, A; Querol, X; Rojas-Rueda, D; Plaza, A; Aynos, G; Conde, J A; Fernández, L; Fernández, C

2015-03-17

Ship emissions degrade air quality and affect human health, and are increasingly becoming a matter of concern. Sulfur emission control areas (ECA), specific coastal regions where only low-sulfur fuels may be consumed by ocean-going ships, have proven to be useful tools to reduce ship-sourced air pollution along the North American, Canadian, and European North and Baltic Sea coastlines. The present work assesses the environmental and health benefits which would derive from designating an ECA in the Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits (50 000 ships/year; 23 million inhabitants). Results show evidence that implementing an ECA would be technically viable and that it would reduce ship-sourced PM10 and PM2.5 ambient concentrations in Istanbul by 67%, and SO2 by 90%. The reduction of the air pollution burden on health was quantified as 210 hospital admissions from exposure to PM10, 290 hospital admissions from exposure to SO2, and up to 30 premature deaths annually due to ECA emission controls. Consequently, the designation of an ECA in the Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits is evaluated as a positive, technically viable and real-world measure to reduce air pollution from ships in Turkey.

Tidal dynamics in the inter-connected Mediterranean, Marmara, Black and Azov seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrarin, Christian; Bellafiore, Debora; Sannino, Gianmaria; Bajo, Marco; Umgiesser, Georg

2018-02-01

In this study we investigated the tidal dynamics in a system of inter-connected land-locked basins formed by the Mediterranean, the Marmara, the Black and the Azov seas (MMBA system). Through the application of an unstructured grid hydrodynamic model to a unique domain representing the whole MMBA system, we simulated the tidal propagation and transformation inside each basin and in the straits connecting them. The model performance was evaluated against amplitudes and phases of major tidal constituents from 77 tidal gauges. The numerical results provided a description of the characteristics of the principal semi-diurnal, diurnal and long-term tides over the entire system. Even if the narrow straits act as a barrier for the tidal sea surface oscillations, our numerical results demonstrated that the along-strait interface slope produces water fluxes between the adjacent basins of the same order of magnitude of the climatological transports estimated by several authors. The long-term tidal modulations of the water exchange between the Mediterranean and the Black seas resulted to be non negligible and may partially explain the monthly and fortnightly flow variability observed in the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits.

Cascading ocean basins: numerical simulations of the circulation and interbasin exchange in the Azov-Black-Marmara-Mediterranean Seas system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanev, Emil Vassilev; Grashorn, Sebastian; Zhang, Yinglong Joseph

2017-08-01

In this paper, we use the unstructured grid model SCHISM to simulate the thermohydrodynamics in a chain of baroclinic, interconnected basins. The model shows a good skill in simulating the horizontal circulation and vertical profiles of temperature, salinity, and currents. The magnitude and phases of the seasonal changes of circulation are consistent with earlier observations. Among the mesoscale and subbasin-scale circulation features that are realistically simulated are the anticyclonic coastal eddies, the Sebastopol and Batumi eddies, the Marmara Sea outflow around the southern coast of the Limnos Island, and the pathway of the cold water originating from the shelf. The superiority of the simulations compared to earlier numerical studies is demonstrated with the example of model capabilities to resolve the strait dynamics, gravity currents originating from the straits, high-salinity bottom layer on the shallow shelf, as well as the multiple intrusions from the Bosporus Strait down to 700 m depth. The warm temperature intrusions from the strait produce the warm water mass in the intermediate layers of the Black Sea. One novel result is that the seasonal intensification of circulation affects the interbasin exchange, thus allowing us to formulate the concept of circulation-controlled interbasin exchange. To the best of our knowledge, the present numerical simulations, for the first time, suggest that the sea level in the interior part of the Black Sea can be lower than the sea level in the Marmara Sea and even in some parts of the Aegean Sea. The comparison with observations shows that the timings and magnitude of exchange flows are also realistically simulated, along with the blocking events. The short-term variability of the strait transports is largely controlled by the anomalies of wind. The simulations demonstrate the crucial role of the narrow and shallow strait of Bosporus in separating the two pairs of basins: Aegean-Marmara Seas from one side and Azov

Constraints on fluid origins and migration velocities along the Marmara Main Fault (Sea of Marmara, Turkey) using helium isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burnard, P.; Bourlange, S.; Henry, P.; Geli, L.; Tryon, M. D.; Natal'in, B.; Sengör, A. M. C.; Özeren, M. S.; Çagatay, M. N.

2012-08-01

Fluids venting from the submarine portion of the Marmara Main Fault (part of the North Anatolian Fault system, Turkey) were sampled in Ti bottles deployed by submersible. The fluids consist of mixtures of fault derived gases, fault related cold seep fluids, and ambient seawater; these components can readily be distinguished using the isotopes of He and the He/Ne ratios. 3He/4He ratios range between 0.03±0.1 and 4.9±0.4 Ra, indicating that both crustal and mantle derived sources of helium are sampled by the fault. The dominant gas in all the samples analyzed is methane with the abundance of CO2 below detection (≤2%) in the mantle rich (high 3He/4He) fluids. This is in contrast to nearly all mantle derived fluids where the C species are dominated by CO2. While high CH4/CO2 ratios may reflect organic or inorganic reactions within the crust which reduce mantle derived CO2 to methane, this is not a priori necessary: we show that simple dilution of mantle fluids with methane produced within local sediments could result in the high 3He/4He, methane rich gases currently emanating from the fault. This observation is supported by an anticorrelation between 3He/4He and C/3He, which is consistent with addition of C and 4He simultaneously to the fluids. The highest 3He/4He ratios were found in the Tekirdag Basin, at the foot of the escarpment bordering the Western Sea of Marmara, where seismic data are consistent with the presence of a fault network at depth which could provide conduits permitting deep-seated fluids to rise to the surface. The lack of recent volcanism, or any evidence of underlying magmatism in the area, along with low temperature fluids, strongly suggests that the 3He-rich helium in these fluids was derived from the mantle itself with the Marmara Main Fault providing a high permeability conduit from the mantle to the surface. Assuming that the mantle source to the fluids originally had a 3He/4He ratio of 6 Ra, the minimum fluid velocities (considering only

Heavy metal concentrations and the variations of foraminifers in the Silivri-Kumbagi area (NW Marmara Sea, Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ünal Yümün, Zeki; Murat Kılıç, Ali; Önce, Melike

2016-04-01

In the area between Silivri (İstanbul) and Kumbagi (Tekirdag), NW of Marmara Sea, there is a considerable extent in marine pollution from industrial and settlements wastes, sea transports, and agricultural activities. The most important one of these pollutions is the spread of heavy metals. Our research investigated sediments in order to determine whether heavy minerals affected biota such as recent foraminifers, or not. Our investigation area starts from Marmara Ereglisi, in the east, continues to Tekirdag and Kumbagi, in the west. 10 sea-water samples, 10 sediment-core samples and one 10 m core-drilling sample, taken 250 m off-shore from coast line. As a result of this sampling geochemical analysis of the bottom-mud and water samples were done and the ratio of heavy metals and other contaminants determined. For heavy metal analyses, concentration analysis of 12 heavy metals (Cd, Fe, Cu, Pb, Zn, Al, Co, Cr, Mn, Ni, As, and Hg) has been conducted, as ppm, in sediment samples taken from the levels in which foraminifers are collected. Perpendicular (spatial) heavy metal concentration changes have been determined with off-shore drilling samples and horizontal changes (geochronological) have been determined with the help of core samples. Especially, it has been understood that heavy metal concentrations in recent sediments are higher compared to the past. In this research the samples have been taken from each 10 cm. of core and drilling samples to collect the benthic foraminifers. In this context, 15 grams of dry sediment sample taken from each level, have been washed in 125 μm sieves in order to determine its benthic foraminifer content. Benthic foraminifera from these samples have been identified taxonomically and their morphological differentiation has been determined after taking SEM photos. As a result of this study, the foraminifera types of "Adelosinacliarensis, Adelosinamediteranensis, Adelosinapulchella, Ammonia compacta, Ammonia parkinsonia, Ammonia tepida

Mud volcano monitoring and seismic events along the North Anatolian Fault (Sea of Marmara)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javad Fallahi, Mohammad; Lupi, Matteo; Mazzini, Adriano; Polonia, Alina; D'Alessandro, Antonino; D'Anna, Giuseppe; Gasperini, Luca

2017-04-01

The Sea of Marmara, a pull-apart basin formed along the northern strand of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) system, is considered a seismic gap, that will be filled in the next decades by a large magnitude (M>7) earthquake, close to the Istanbul Metropolitan area (12 million inhabitants). For this reason, several marine geological and geophysical studies have been carried out in this region, starting from the destructive 1999 Mw 7.4 Izmit earthquake, to gather information relative to seismogenic potential of major fault strands. Together with these studies, in the frame of EC projects (i.e., MarmESONET and Marsite, among others), an intensive program of long-term monitoring of seismogenic faults was carried out using seafloor observatories deployed during several expeditions led by Italian, French and Turkish groups. These expeditions included MARM2013, on board of the R/V Urania, of the Italian CNR, when four ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) were deployed in the central part of the Sea of Marmara, at depths between 550 and 1000 m. One of the main aims of the experiment was to assess the long-term seismic activity along an active segment of the NAF, which connects the central and the western basins (depocenters), where the principal deformation zone appears relatively narrow and almost purely strike-slip. The present study shows the results of processing and analysis of continuous data records from these OBS stations during 50 days. We were able to detect seismic signal produced by an active mud volcano located close to the NAF trace, from about 3 to 6 km of distance from the OBS stations. Additionally, we captured the May 24, 2014, Mw 6.9 strike-slip earthquake occurred in the northern Aegean Sea between Greece and Turkey, which caused serious damage on the Turkish island of Imbros and the cities of Edirne and Çanakkale, as well as on the Greek island of Lemnos. The earthquake nucleated on the westward continuation of the NAF system in the NE Aegean Sea, and was

Measurement of natural and 137Cs radioactivity concentrations at Izmit Bay (Marmara Sea), Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Öksüz, I.; Güray, R. T.; Özkan, N.; Yalçin, C.; Ergül, H. A.; Aksan, S.

2016-03-01

In order to determine the radioactivity level at Izmit Bay Marmara Sea, marine sediment samples were collected from five different locations. The radioactivity concentrations of naturally occurring 238U, 232Th and 40K isotopes and also that of an artificial isotope 137Cs were measured by using gamma-ray spectroscopy. Preliminary results show that the radioactivity concentrations of 238U and 232Th isotopes are lower than the average worldwide values while the radioactivity concentrations of the 40K are higher than the average worldwide value. A small amount of 137Cs contamination, which might be caused by the Chernobyl accident, was also detected.

MARSite-MARMARA SUPERSITE: Accomplishments and Outlook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Necmioglu, Ocal; Ergintav, Semih; Oguz Ozel, Asım; Italiano, Franco; Favali, Paolo; Bigarre, Pascal; Cakir, Ziyadin; Geli, Louis; Aochi, Hideo; Bossu, Remy; Zulfikar, Can; Sesetyan, Karin

2017-04-01

MARsite Project, funded under FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2 (Grant 308417) and successfully implemented to Marmara Region during 2014-2016 indicated that focusing on the monitoring of the region and the integration of data from land, sea and space and the processing of this composed data based on sound earth-science research is an effective tool for mitigating damage from future earthquakes. This was achieved by monitoring the earthquake hazard through the ground-shaking and forecast maps, short- and long-term earthquake rate forecasting and time-dependent seismic hazard maps to make important risk-mitigation decisions regarding building design, insurance rates, land-use planning, and public-policy issues that need to balance safety and economic and social interests. MARSite has demonstrated the power of the use of different sensors in the assessment of the earthquake hazard. In addition to the more than 30 scientific publication within the MARsite Project framework, a multidisciplinary innovative borehole seismic observatory and a dilatometer have been installed within MARSite where its a data can be used for a range of seismic studies. Due to the encouraging results obtained from this experiment, it was determined that in the future likely smaller number of stations will be required reducing the cost of national seismic networks. The technical infrastructure of the continuous GPS stations of MAGNET network has been updated within MARSite. Tsunami hazard studies in MARSite in Marmara Sea showed that the tsunami hazard in the Marmara Region is primarily due to submarine landslides triggered by an earthquake and a conceptual Tsunami Early Warning System in the Marmara region strongly coupled with the strong ground motion and existing Earthquake Early Warning System was developed. The existing Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response system in the Marmara Region was improved and the installation and test of a pilot seismic landslide monitoring system was taken place in the

Analysis of micro-seismicity and gas emissions along the North-Anatolian Fault within the Sea of Marmara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evangelia, B.; Géli, L.; Lomax, A.; Henry, P.; Tary, J. B.; Klingelhoefer, F.; Gurbuz, C.; Monna, S.; Bayrakci, G.

2016-12-01

The Marmara-Istanbul region, along the North-Anatolian Fault (NAF), is generally considered to be within a seismic gap, with the potential of an impending earthquake of magnitude > 7. The determination of the mechanical behavior of the submarine segments in the Sea of Marmara is of utmost importance for seismic hazard assessment. Seismic catalogs for the period 2007-2012 (e.g. Schmittbuhl et al., 2015) show that earthquakes of magnitude > 4.5 in the Western Sea of Marmara are systematically located where gas emissions have been found and followed by swarms of aftershocks which appear to be vertically distributed from the base of the crust to the sediment surface. These observations suggest that there is a possible relation between the presence of gas and the occurrence of shallow seismicity (< 4 km). To test this hypotheses, a detailed analysis of the micro-seismicity recorded by Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBSs) in 2011 and 2014, was performed, using a 3D high resolution velocity model. Due to an insufficient station coverage in the immediate vicinity of the fault, locations are subject to ambiguity, from the base of the crust to the surface. The results however confirm the presence of shallow (< 4 km) aftershock sequences in relation to gas emissions. Considering 1) that, following Schmittbuhl et al (2015), the western segment of the MMF is creeping; and 2) that, following Sakic et al (2016), the central segment -where no gas emissions are observed- is locked; it has been proposed that a causal relation exists between i) creeping at crustal levels; ii) increase in sediment permeability within the fault zone; and iii) gas emissions. In addition, we here propose that the crustal creep-related seismicity may in some cases also induce shallow seismicity and enhance gas emissions from the seafloor. Sakic et al, (2016), Geophys. Res. Let., doi/10.1002/2016GL069600 Schmittbuhl et al, (2015), Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, DOI 10.1002/2015GC006120

Geometry and segmentation of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Marmara Sea, Turkey, deduced from long-term ocean bottom seismographic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, Yojiro; Takahashi, Narumi; Pinar, Ali; Kalafat, Dogan; Citak, Seckin; Comoglu, Mustafa; Polat, Remzi; Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

2017-04-01

Both the geometry and the depth of the seismogenic zone of the North Anatolian Fault under the Marmara Sea (the Main Marmara Fault; MMF) are poorly understood, in part because of the fault's undersea location. We have started a series of long-term ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs) observation since 2014, as a part of the SATREPS collaborative project between Japan and Turkey namely "Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey". We recorded 10 months of microseismic data with a dense array of OBSs from Sep. 2014 to Jul. 2015 and then applied double-difference relocation and 3-D tomographic modeling to obtain precise hypocenters on the MMF beneath the central and western Marmara Sea. The hypocenters show distinct lateral changes along the MMF: (1) Both the upper and lower crust beneath the Western High are seismically active and the maximum focal depth reaches 26 km, (2) seismic events are confined to the upper crust beneath the region extending from the eastern part of the Central Basin to the Kumburgaz Basin, and (3) the magnitude and direction of dip of the main fault changes under the Central Basin, where there is also an abrupt change in the depth of the lower limit of the seismogenic zone. We attribute this change to a segment boundary of the MMF. Our data show that the upper limit of the seismogenic zone corresponds to sedimentary basement. We also identified several inactive seismicity regions within the upper crust along the MMF; their spatial extent beneath the Kumburgaz Basin is greater than beneath the Western High. From the comparison with seafloor extensometer data, we consider that these inactive seismicity regions might indicate zones of strong coupling that are accumulating stress for release during future large earthquakes. In this presentation, we will also show the preliminary result of our second phase observation from Jul. 2015 to Jun. 2016.

Marine-to-lacustrine transition, mud volcanism, and slope instability in an active tectonic setting: the MIS 5 to 4 transition in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grall, Céline; Henry, Pierre; Kendé, Julia; Namık Çaǧatay, M.; Kadir Eriş, K.; Paillès, Christine; Sorlien, Christopher; Shillington, Donna; McHugh, Cecilia; Steckler, Michael; Çifçi, Günay; Géli, Louis

2016-04-01

In the Sea of Marmara, glacio-eustatic cycles set the tempo of a complex history of disconnection and reconnection with the Black Sea and with the global ocean through the Mediterranean Sea. As a result, the sedimentary record consists of alternating high stand marine sediments and lowstand sea or lake sediments. The Sea of Marmara is also an active transtensional basin along the Northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault (NNAF), which accommodates most (~3/4) of the 21-27 mm/a dextral slip between Eurasia and Anatolia. This peculiar setting makes the Sea of Marmara an exceptional site to study the interplay of paleo-environmental factors and seismotectonic processes. Notably, Mass Transport Deposits (MTDs) crossing the faults provide offset markers although their age remains uncertain. A high resolution seismic stratigraphic model has been proposed for 100 ka glacial cycles, based on onlap sequences within basins, and paleo-deltas at shorelines. The sedimentation rate in basins decreases during episodes of sea-level rise and reach maximum values during low stands. Remarkably, seismic reflector sequences display nearly identical character for locations with similar sedimentation rate. The uppermost sequence boundary reflector (Red-H1) has been recently cored at several locations during MARSITECRUISE (Ifremer R/V Pourquoi Pas?, Oct-Nov. 2014), enabled us to correlate high resolution seismic data with core data. The Red-H1 reflector is regionally characterized by a high amplitude and a reverse polarity. Correlations between seismic data and piston core logs indicate that the reverse polarity of this reflector may be explained by a negative density contrast between lacustrine sediments above and a greenish sapropellic layer of several meters thickness below. On shelves, Red-H1 is on top of the low stand wedge. On slopes and topographic highs, Red-H1 appears as an erosional surface laterally correlative with an onlapping unit in basins and is frequently overlain by

Estimating slip deficit of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, using on- and off-shore geodetic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, R.; Kido, M.; Ohta, Y.; Takahashi, N.; Yamamoto, Y.; Kalafat, D.; Pinar, A.; Ozener, H.; Ozeren, M. S.; Yoshiyuki, K.

2016-12-01

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in the northern Turkey regionally has right-lateral strike-slip motion. In the last decade, seismic activities have been migrating from east to west along the fault. In 1999, Izmit and Duzce Earthquakes were respectively occurred at 100 km and 200 km east of Istanbul, while it remains un-ruptured in the vicinity of Istanbul beneath the Sea of Marmara. In this region, onshore geodetic tools cannot be used and we instead used "seafloor acoustic extensometers" to detect slip deficit rate across the western part of the NAF (around 27.7 °E). A pair of extensometers can periodically measure precise range (about 3-4 mm precision per 1 km baseline) by observing round-trip time of acoustic signal between the two. We installed four instruments in September 2014 and an additional one in March 2015 across the NAF. We have recovered data for about 600-days through acoustic modem. By correcting travel-times for sound velocity using concurrently measured temperature, pressure and tilt change of instruments, we obtained 8-10 ±1 mm/yr of right-lateral movement at the site. Combing the result with on-shore GNSS data across the Sea of Marmara, we constructed a possible fault model. According to the model in Kaneko et al. (2013), we simply assume a bimodal slip condition on the fault plane that infinitely continues to the E-W direction; full-creep (25 mm/yr as is given at infinite distant from the fault plane) deeper than 15 km and applied an overriding partially locked layer (17 mm/yr slip deficit as is obtained by extensometers). We calculated 2-D displacement field in a homogeneous elastic half-space medium. With this model, N-S variation of on-shore GNSS data across the Sea of Marmara can be reasonably explained. However, due to the lack of GNSS site near the fault plane, constraint on the depth of the partially locked layer is not sufficient. We have newly installed GNSS sites, one of which is closer to the fault plane ( 10 km) than before and

Is the Marmara Sea segment of the North Anatolian Fault Creeping or loading ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Emilie; Masson, Frédéric; Duputel, Zacharie; Yavasoglu, Hakan

2016-04-01

During the last century, the North Anatolian Fault has experienced a migrating Mw>7 earthquakes sequence that ruptured about 1000 km of the fault westward. The last major earthquakes occurred in 1999 in Izmit (Mw7.4) and Duzce (Mw7.2). Only the segments located directly offshore of Istanbul, in the Marmara Sea, remain unbroken in this series of events. This region represents a major issue in terms of seismic hazard with more than 13 millions inhabitants in the city of Istanbul. However, a strong controversy remains over whether the central segment of the Main Marmara Fault is locked and likely to experience a major earthquake, or not. Recent studies based on geodetic data suggest indeed that, contrary to the Prince's Island segment which is fully locked, the central segment is accommodating the strain by aseismic fault creep. So it has not the potential to generate a Mw ~7 event. These results, mostly based on relatively simple strain accumulation models over infinitely long faults, is contested by a recent seismic data study, which suggests on the contrary that this fault segment is fully locked and mature to generate such a great earthquake. In this study, we revisit the available geodetic data considering a 3D geometry of the fault, allowing to take into account the lateral variations of behavior along the fault. In particular, we evaluate if current geodetic datasets are sufficient to constrain strain accumulation and thus to conclude about the seismic hazard in the region.

Investigaton of ÇINARCIK Basin and North Anatolian Fault Within the Sea of Marmara with Multichannel Seismic Reflection Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atgın, O.; Çifçi, G.; Sorlien, C.; Seeber, L.; Steckler, M.; Sillington, D.; Kurt, H.; Dondurur, D.; Okay, S.; Gürçay, S.; Sarıtaş, H.; Küçük, H. M.

2012-04-01

The Sea of Marmara is becoming a natural laboratory for structure, sedimentation, and fluid flow within the North Anatolian fault (NAF) system. Much marine geological and geophysical data has been collected there since the deadly 1999 M=7.2. Izmit earthquake. The Sea of Marmara occupies 3 major basins, with the study area located in the eastern Cinarcik basin near Istanbul. These basins are the results of an extensional component in releasing segments between bends in this right-lateral tranmsform. It is controversial whether the extensional component is taken up by partitioned normal slip on separate faults, or instead by oblique right-normal slip on the non-vertical main northern branch of the NAF. High resolution multichannel seismic reflection (MCS) and multibeam bathymetry data collected by R/V K.Piri Reis and R/V Le-Suroit as part of two different projects respectively entitled "SeisMarmara", "TAMAM" and "ESONET". 3000 km of multichannel seismic reflection profiles were collected in 2008 and 2010 using 72, 111, and 240 channels of streamer with a 6.25 m group interval. The generator-injector airgun was fired every 12.5 or 18.75 m and the resulting MCS data has 10-230 Hz frequency band. The aim of the study is to investigate continuation of North Anatolian Fault along the Sea of Marmara, in order to investigate migration of depo-centers past a fault bend. We also test and extend a recently-published age model, quantify extension across short normal faults, and investigate whether a major surface fault exists along the southern edge of Çınarcık Basin. MCS profiles indicate that main NAF strand is located at the northern boundary of Çınarcık Basin and has a large vertical component of slip. The geometry of the eastern (Tuzla) bend and estimated right-lateral slip rates from GPS data requires as much of ten mm/yr of extension across Çınarcık Basin. Based on the published age model, we calculate about 2 mm/yr of extension on short normal faults in the

Microseismicity at the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara offshore Istanbul, NW Turkey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bulut, Fatih; Bohnhoff, Marco; Ellsworth, William L.; Aktar, Mustafa; Dresen, Georg

2009-01-01

The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) below the Sea of Marmara forms a “seismic gap” where a major earthquake is expected to occur in the near future. This segment of the fault lies between the 1912 Ganos and 1999 İzmit ruptures and is the only NAFZ segment that has not ruptured since 1766. To monitor the microseismic activity at the main fault branch offshore of Istanbul below the Çınarcık Basin, a permanent seismic array (PIRES) was installed on the two outermost Prince Islands, Yassiada and Sivriada, at a few kilometers distance to the fault. In addition, a temporary network of ocean bottom seismometers was deployed throughout the Çınarcık Basin. Slowness vectors are determined combining waveform cross correlation and P wave polarization. We jointly invert azimuth and traveltime observations for hypocenter determination and apply a bootstrap resampling technique to quantify the location precision. We observe seismicity rates of 20 events per month for M < 2.5 along the basin. The spatial distribution of hypocenters suggests that the two major fault branches bounding the depocenter below the Çınarcık Basin merge to one single master fault below ∼17 km depth. On the basis of a cross-correlation technique we group closely spaced earthquakes and determine composite focal mechanisms implementing recordings of surrounding permanent land stations. Fault plane solutions have a predominant right-lateral strike-slip mechanism, indicating that normal faulting along this part of the NAFZ plays a minor role. Toward the west we observe increasing components of thrust faulting. This supports the model of NW trending, dextral strike-slip motion along the northern and main branch of the NAFZ below the eastern Sea of Marmara.

Proximate and elemental composition of Chamelea gallina from the southern coast of the Marmara Sea (Turkey).

PubMed

Arik Colakoglu, Fatma; Ormanci, Hasan Basri; Berik, Nermin; Kunili, Ibrahim Ender; Colakoglu, Serhat

2011-11-01

The venerid clam Chamelea gallina is a popular and economic foodstuff around the Mediterranean countries especially in Italy, Spain, and France. The aim of this study is to evaluate the nutritional quality of striped venus of Southern Marmara. Samples were harvested seasonally at five stations and analyzed to determine meat yield, proximate, and elemental composition. According to the results, meat yield ranged from 20.24% to 29.94%. Means of water, protein, lipid, and ash content were 67%, 10.12%, 2.57%, and 1.66%, respectively. The mean concentrations (mg/kg wet weight) of elements in tissues are as follows: B: 2.37-4.24; Cr: 0-0.76; Co: 0-0.43; Cu: 0.71-5.30; Mn: 0.30-5.94; Zn: 13.08-77.76; Ni: 0-1.22; Fe: 2.46-114.22; Al: 1.23-75.49; Pb: 0.18-3.24; Ba: 0.66-15.97; Cd: 0.04-0.69. Among the reported metal levels, only Pb and Zn in two stations exceeded the maximum critical concentrations enforced by Turkish legislation and European Commission. Therefore, we report that striped venus from Southern Marmara Sea, in general, are safe for human consumption; nonetheless, Pb and Zn levels should be closely monitored in the future.

Measurement of natural and {sup 137}Cs radioactivity concentrations at Izmit Bay (Marmara Sea), Turkey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Öksüz, İ., E-mail: ibrahim-ksz@yahoo.com; Güray, R. T., E-mail: tguray@kocaeli.edu.tr; Özkan, N., E-mail: nozkan@kocaeli.edu.tr

In order to determine the radioactivity level at Izmit Bay Marmara Sea, marine sediment samples were collected from five different locations. The radioactivity concentrations of naturally occurring {sup 238}U, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K isotopes and also that of an artificial isotope {sup 137}Cs were measured by using gamma-ray spectroscopy. Preliminary results show that the radioactivity concentrations of {sup 238}U and {sup 232}Th isotopes are lower than the average worldwide values while the radioactivity concentrations of the {sup 40}K are higher than the average worldwide value. A small amount of {sup 137}Cs contamination, which might be caused by the Chernobylmore » accident, was also detected.« less

Tectonic activity and stratigraphic history over the last 130-540 ka on the Southern Shelf of the Sea of Marmara, western North Anatolian Fault, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, W. H.; Grall, C.; Sorlien, C. C.; Steckler, M. S.; Okay, S.; Cormier, M. H.; Seeber, L.; Cifci, G.; Dondurur, D.

2016-12-01

The submerged section of the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara, which corresponds to the dextral plate boundary between Eurasia and Anatolia, poses strong hazard for earthquakes and subsequent submarine landslides and tsunamis in the vicinity of the highly populated region of Istanbul. Most of the right-lateral slip is accommodated by the Northern Branch of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF-N), which crosses the central part of the Sea of Marmara and is capable of an earthquake with a magnitude greater than 7. However, both the geology and the geodesy suggest that the NAF-N accommodates only 3/4 of the total slip between the plates. The deformation mechanisms for the rest of the strain (slip distributed on secondary faults, strain partitioning, and diffuse deformation) remains unexplained. Other fault systems, primarily south of the NAF-N, are shown to be important regarding the tectonic evolution of the Sea of Marmara. However, the activity of these peripheral fault systems as well as their relationships with the NAF-N need to be further constrained. For this purpose, a dense dataset of 2D geophysical images (high-resolution seismic reflection data, sparker reflection, CHIRP sub-bottom profiling), as well as multibeam bathymetry, have been acquired in 2008, 2010, 2013 and 2014 during TAMAM and SOMAR cruises, primarily in the southern shelf of the Sea of Marmara. The 15-20 km-wide southern shelf ledge is relatively flat and mostly shallower than 90 m. In this shallow marine region, we have been able to image the detailed stratigraphic record associated with the 125 ka and younger glacio-eustatic cycles and, notably, to identify paleo-shorelines at water depths shallower than 100 m. Several erosional unconformities, laterally correlative to low-stand deltas have been regionally linked to the stratigraphic boundaries previously defined for the last 130-540 ka. While the present-day shelf is relatively flat, a shallow ridge separates the inner and outer parts

MARSite: Marmara as a Supersite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meral Ozel, N.; Necmioglu, O.; Ergintav, S.; Ozel, A.; Erdik, M. O.

2013-12-01

The Marmara Region is one of the most active seismic regions in Turkey and also most densely populated and fast-developing part in the country. The region was effected with destructive earthquakes in its past, and the seismic hazard in Marmara Region has become a great concern especially after the Izmit and Duzce earthquakes in 1999 costing 18.000 people lives. Recent studies indicate that the region has a great potential to produce M≥7.0 earthquake within the next 30 years. Hence, a realistic assessment of the earthquake hazard in this area including Istanbul with more then 15 million inhabitants is a priority. MARsite project identifes the Marmara region as a ';Supersite' to aggregate on-shore, off-shore and space-based observations, comprehensive geophysical monitoring, improved hazard and risk assessments encompassed in an integrated set of activities. MARsite Consortium constitutes of 18 European research institutions with a long record of scientific history and success, and 3 SMEs, from 7 nations of the Euro-Mediterranean area. MARsite aims to harmonize geological, geophysical, geodetic and geochemical observations to provide a better view of the post-seismic deformation of the 1999 Izmit earthquake (in addition to the post-seismic signature of previous earthquakes), loading of submarine and inland active fault segments and transient pre-earthquake signals, related to stress loading with different tectonic properties in and around Marmara Sea. These studies are planned to contribute to high-quality rapid source-mechanism solutions and slip models, early warning and rapid-response studies. The project outputs will also be adapted to improve various phases of the risk management cycle with the creation of a link between the scientific community and end users. In this context, MARsite will develop novel geo-hazard monitoring instruments including high-resolution displacement meters, novel borehole instrumentation and sea-bottom gas emission and heat

Late Glacial to Holocene evolution and sea-level history of Gulf of Gemlik, Sea of Marmara, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabuncu, Asen; Kadir Eriş, K.; Kaslilar, Ayse; Namık Çaǧatay, M.; Gasperini, Luca; Filikçi, Betül

2016-04-01

The Gulf of Gemlik is an E-W elongated trans-tensional basin with a maximum depth of 113 m, located on the middle strand of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in the south eastern part of the Sea of Marmara (SoM). While during the Holocene the sea level in the Gulf of Gemlik changed in tandem with the water level changes in the SoM, it may have been different in the late glacial when the Sea of Marmara was lacustrine. Beside the tectonic activity related to the NAFZ, eustatic sea level changes would have controlled the basin evolution and consequent sedimentary history during the different paleocanographic phases of the SoM. Considering the limited studies on the late glacial-Holocene stratigraph of the Gulf of Gemlik, this study aims to investigate the depositional units and their environments with respect to different allogenic and autogenic controls. For these purposes, we analyzed over 300 2 - 7 kHz bandwidth high-resolution gridded seismic sub-bottom CHIRP profiles together with 70 kHz high resolution multibeam bathymetry with backscatter data. Four seismic stratigraphic units were defined and correlated with chronstratigraphic units in five piston cores covering the last 15.8 ka BP according to radiocarbon ages (14C). The depth-scale accuracy of chronostratigraphic units in cores is of key importance for the precise calculation of sedimentation rates. Correlation between the seismic profiles and cores were made by matching Multi-Sensor Core-Logger (MSCL) data and seismic reflection coefficients and amplitudes for different stratigraphic units. The impedance data derived from the logger were used to generate a synthetic seismogram. We used an approach to display, estimate, and correct the depth-scale discrepancies due to oversampling affecting the upper part of sedimentary series during piston coring. The method is based on the resynchronization of synthetic seismograms computed from high-quality physical property logs to the corresponding CHIRP profiles. Each

Earthquake geology along the North Anatoli Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McHugh, C. M.; Cormier, M.-H.; Seeber, L.; Cagatay, M. N.; Capotondi, L.; Polonia, A.; Lozefski, G.

2003-04-01

The feasibility of conducting submarine earthquake geology along the North Anatolia Fault Zone (NAFZ) was evaluated from sediment cores and geophysical data (multibeam bathymetry and high-resolution CHIRP) recently collected from the Marmara Sea. We have successfully begun to characterize the Holocene earthquake record of the NAFZ in a small basin along the Ganos fault east of the Gelibolu peninsula, and in Izmit Gulf (west of the Hersek promontory and in the Karamürsel basin). Evidence for seismic activity was derived from mass-wasting and gravity flow deposits including homogenites (deposits >10cm thick containing turbidites with resuspended sediment above) identified from core x-rays, grain size, organic carbon, and mineralogical analyses. Deposits were correlated to the historical earthquake record of the Marmara Sea region by chronology derived from 14C, 210Pb and 137Cs. The basin near Ganos is ideal for the study of earthquake-related activity. It is deep (>50m), bisected by the fault, and isolated from other basins and distal from fluvial and alluvial fan input that may include weather-related events. Yet, its sedimentation rates are very high (>2m/1000 years). Homogenites, have been tentatively correlated to the 1912 Ganos earthquake and to the mid-1960's and mid-1800's Saros Gulf earthquakes. The Ganos earthquake ruptured the entire 50km long segment across the Gelibolu peninsula plus submarine portions on either side. If the timing of these events is correct, it suggests frequent seismic activity for this region. On the Gulf of Izmit, west of Hersek, sandy-mass flows containing soft sediment deformation such as recumbent folds and sand injections have been linked to the 1509 earthquake. Historical records indicate that the segment of the NAFZ in the Hersek Peninsula ruptured during this earthquake and our findings suggest that the rupture may have continued beneath the Izmit Gulf. In the eastern portion of the Karamürsel basin, sandy turbidites have

Annual cycle of zooplankton abundance and species composition in Izmit Bay (the northeastern Marmara Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isinibilir, Melek; Kideys, Ahmet E.; Tarkan, Ahmet N.; Yilmaz, I. Noyan

2008-07-01

The monthly abundance, biomass and taxonomic composition of zooplankton of Izmit Bay (the northeastern Marmara Sea) were studied from October 2001 to September 2002. Most species within the zooplankton community displayed a clear pattern of succession throughout the year. Generally copepods and cladocerans were the most abundant groups, while the contribution of meroplankton increased at inner-most stations and dominated the zooplankton. Both species number ( S) and diversity ( H') were positively influenced by the increase in salinity of upper layers ( r = 0.30 and r = 0.31, p < 0.001, respectively), while chlorophyll a was negatively affected ( r = -0.36, p < 0.001). Even though Noctiluca scintillans had a significant seasonality ( F11,120 = 8.45, p < 0.001, ANOVA), abundance was not related to fluctuations in temperature and only chlorophyll a was adversely correlated ( r = -0.35, p < 0.001). In general, there are some minor differences in zooplankton assemblages of upper and lower layers. A comparison of the species composition and abundance of Izmit Bay with other Black Sea bays reveals a high similarity between them.

A comparative study of ground motion hybrid simulations and the modified NGA ground motion predictive equations for directivity and its application to the the Marmara Sea region (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pischiutta, M.; Akinci, A.; Spagnuolo, E.; Taroni, M.; Herrero, A.; Aochi, H.

2016-12-01

We have simulated strong ground motions for two Mw>7.0 rupture scenarios on the North Anatolian Fault, in the Marmara Sea within 10-20 km from Istanbul. This city is characterized by one of the highest levels of seismic risk in Europe and the Mediterranean region. The increased risk in Istanbul is due to eight destructive earthquakes that ruptured the fault system and left a seismic gap at the western portion of the 1000km-long North Anatolian Fault Zone. To estimate the ground motion characteristics and its variability in the region we have simulated physics-based rupture scenarios, producing hybrid broadband time histories. We have merged two simulation techniques: a full 3D wave propagation method to generate low-frequency seismograms (Aochi and Ulrich, 2015) and the stochastic finite-fault model approach based on a dynamic corner frequency (Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005) to simulate high-frequency seismograms (Akinci et al., 2016, submitted to BSSA, 2016). They are merged to compute realistic broadband hybrid time histories. The comparison of ground motion intensity measures (PGA, PGV, SA) resulting from our simulations with those predicted by the recent Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) in the region (Boore & Atkinson, 2008; Chiou & Young, 2008; Akkar & Bommer, 2010; Akkar & Cagnan, 2010) seems to indicate that rupture directivity and super-shear rupture effects affect the ground motion in the Marmara Sea region. In order to account for the rupture directivity we improve the comparison using the directivity predictor proposed by Spudich & Chiu (2008). This study highlights the importance of the rupture directivity for the hazard estimation in the Marmara Sea region, especially for the city of Istanbul.

Determination of Aseismic Creep or Strain Field on the Main Marmara Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Özbey, V.; Yavasoglu, H.; Masson, F.; Klein, E.; Alkan, M. N.; Alkan, R. M.

2016-12-01

Plate motion affecting the Earth's crust have occurred for millions of years. Determination of strain accumulation based on the plate motion is commonly monitored with GPS in recent years. The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) Zone, which is one of the fastest faults in the world, extends along all North Anatolia from Bingöl to Saros Gulf. Several destructive earthquakes occurred there, such as Izmit (in 1999, Mw=7.4) and Duzce (in 1999, Mw=7.2) in last century. The NAFZ is dividing into southern and northern branches to the east of Marmara region and the Northern branch (Main Marmara Fault-MMF) is crossing the Marmara Sea, starting in from the Gulf of Izmit - Adapazarı and reaching the Gulf of Saros. According to recent studies, the MMF is the largest unbroken part of the fault and is divided into segments (among which the Central Marmara-CM and Prince's Island-PI segments). The determination of the deformation accumulated on the MMF has become extremely important especially after the 1999 Izmit earthquake. Recent studies have demonstrated that the Prince's Island segment is fully locked. However, studies that are focused on the Central Marmara segment, that is located offshore Istanbul, a giant metropole that has more than 14 million population, do not conclude about the presence of a seismic gap, capable of generating a big earthquake. Therefore, in the scope of this study, a new GPS network will be established at short and long distance from the Main Marmara Fault, to densify the existing GPS network. several campaign measurements will be necessary to compute a velocity field. The velocity field will reveal the compression and variations of accumulation rate on the fault. Also, the amount of aseismic creep deep within the fault will be determined using Elastic Displacement Modeling method, allowing to conclude about the existence of a seismic gap on the Main Marmara Fault originated from aseismic deformation or not.

Abrupt Changes in the Marmara Pelagic Ecosystem during the recent jellyfish Liriope tetraphylla invasion and mucilage events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkan Kideys, Ahmet; Yüksek, Ahsen; Sur, Halil Ibrahim

2013-04-01

In this study, meteorological and hydrographical conditions as well as chemical and biological parameters have been examined for the period 2005-2009 to determine the impact and cause of the massive mucilage phenomenon observed in the Sea of Marmara in October 2007. Results showed that there is a decrease pattern in chl concentration as well as both phytoplankton and zooplankton abundances from August till October in 2007 whilst the jellyfish Liriope tetraphylla had bloom levels. This period coincided with the maximum intensity of pelagic fishing throughout the years. Nitrogen/phosphate ratio increased prior to the mucilage formation. Invasive Liriope tetraphylla abundance increased exponentially in August and died in masses as a result of starvation and meteorological / oceanographic conditions. In October, following the mucilage matter production another new species for the region Gonyaulax fragilis was observed in high abundance through the basin. It is worthy to note that during basin wide samplings conducted in the Sea of Marmara in both 2005 and 2006, high abundances of Liriope tetraphylla have been detected particularly at the northern parts where no mucilage event was observed. We suggest that overfishing in the Sea of Marmara provided a ground for the establishment of the invasive jellyfish and accompanying mucilage event was due to by synergic combinations of several factors.

Lateral Variations of the Behavior of the North Anatolian Fault from the Marmara Sea to the Karliova Triple Junction Using Geodetic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masson, F.; Klein, E.; Rembert, F.; Peyret, M.; Duputel, Z.; Yavasoglu, H.; Ulrich, P.

2017-12-01

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is the major transform system that accommodates the westward movement of the relatively rigid Anatolian block with respect to Eurasia. Mitigating the hazard associated with devastating earthquakes requires understanding how the NAF accumulates and releases the stored elastic strain energy both in space and in time. In this study, we present new results obtained from re-analyzed geodetic data sets: 1- along the offshore segment of the NAF through the Marmara Sea and 2- along the whole onshore NAF from Ismetpaça to Karliova. To study the Marmara sea segments, we analyze GPS and InSAR data from Istanbul to Tekirdag and propose a new interpretation of the velocity field in the area. The results indicate large east-west variations in the behavior of the fault that are modeled using a Bayesian approach. Some parts of the fault are probably creeping at shallow depth, inducing a lower strain accumulation than expected if the fault is fully locked. Along the NAF from Ismetpaça to Karliova, we use a synthesis of the velocities provided by Kreemer et al. (2014), updated with the new data provided by Aktug et al. (2015). The main results indicate (1) a contrasted behavior between eastern and western segments of the fault, the eastern part being fully locked while the western part is only partially coupled and (2) the existence of compressional and extensional segments that are well-correlated with pull-apart basins and mountain ranges respectively.

Enhancing analog seismic data resolution using the A/D converter: Examples of Sicilia Channel and Marmara Sea data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alp, H.

2015-12-01

We present here two data set composed of about 20 multichannel seismic data profiles, for a total of 1102 km of data acquired in the Sicilia Channel in Italy and Marmara Sea in Turkey. The data set of Multichannel seismic reflection profiles and well information acquired for commercial purpose by oil companies in the 1970's and 1980's. All profiles in Sicilia Channel, which are available on .pdf files were downloaded from VIDEPI website. Other profiles in Marmara Sea were taken from Turkish Petroleum Corporation. The first step was to convert the graphic files SEG-Y format files, using SeisTrans® software. Due to the great inhomogeneity of the various seismic lines, which have been recorded from different companies with different acquisition parameters, it has been necessary a great job of homogenization and noise reduction through the use of adequate band-pass filters. Then, for each reconstructed seismic line, SEG-Y header editing was necessary in order to assign the CDP (common-depth-points) and the SP (shot points) to the corresponding geographic coordinates. The SEG-Y files so created were uploaded and archived into a project using the Kingdom Suite® seismic package. To perform the calibration of seismic data with the stratigraphic wells, the classic problem is to identify on seismic profiles the reflections corresponding to the lithological variations identified in the wells. This is because the vertical scale of the seismic data is expressed in time, while that of the wells is expressed in meters. The main unknown is then the sound velocity within the different lithologies. In order to better correlate real data reflections with the corresponding stratigraphic discontinuities, synthetic seismogram have been created from the reflectivity series obtained through acoustic impedance calculations. They represent an example of forward modeling to match as closely as possible the real seismic data.

Investigation Of North Anatolian Fault In The Sea Of Marmara: Fault Geometry, The Cumulative Extension, Age Modeling In Çinarcik Basin Using Multi Channel Seismic Reflection Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atgın, Orhan; Çifçi, Günay; Soelien, Christopher; Seeber, Leonardo; Steckler, Michael; Shillington, Donna; Kurt, Hülya; Dondurur, Derman; Okay, Seda; Gürçay, Savaş; Sarıtaş, Hakan; Mert Küçük, H.; Barın, Burcu

2013-04-01

Marmara Sea is a limelight area for investigations due to its tectonic structure and remarkable seismic activity of North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). As NAFZ separates into 3 branches in the Marmara Sea, it has a complicated tectonic structure which gives rise to debates among researchers. Çınarcık Basin, which is close to Istanbul and very important for its tectonic activity is studied in this thesis. Two different multichannel seismic reflection data were used in this thesis. First data were acquired in 2008 in the frame of TAMAM (Turkish American Multichannel Project) and second data were in 2010 in the frame of TAMAM-2 (PirMarmara) onboard R/V K.Piri Reis. Also high resolution multibeam data were used which is provided by French Marine Institute IFREMER. In the scope of TAMAM project total 3000 km high resolution multi channel data were collected. 3000 km of multichannel seismic reflection profiles were collected in 2008 and 2010 using 72, 111, and 240 channels of streamer with a 6.25 m group interval. The generator-injector airgun was fired every 12.5 or 18.75 m and the resulting MCS data has 10-230 Hz frequency band. In this study, a detailed fault map of the basin is created and the fault on the southern slope of the basin which is interpreted by many researchers in many publications was investigated. And there is no evidence that such a fault exists on the southern part of the basin. With the multichannel seismic reflection data seismic stratigrafic interpretations of the basin deposits were done. The yearly cumulative north-south extension of the basin was calculated by making some calculations on the most active part of the faulting in the basin. In addition, the tilt angles of parallel tilted sediments were calculated and correlated with global sea level changes to calculate ages of the deposits in the basin. Keywords: NAFZ, multi channel seismic reflection, Çınarcık Basin

AVO Analysis of a Shallow Gas Accumulation in the Marmara Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Er, M.; Dondurur, D.; Çifçi, G.

2012-04-01

In recent years, Amplitude versus Offset-AVO analysis is widely used in determination and classification of gas anomalies from wide-offset seismic data. Bright spots which are among the significant factors in determining the hydrocarbon accumulations, can also be determined sucessfully using AVO analysis. A bright spot anomaly were identified on the multi-channel seismic data collected by R/V K. Piri Reis research vessel in the Marmara Sea in 2008. On prestack seismic data, the associated AVO anomalies are clearly identified on the supergathers. Near- and far-offset stack sections are plotted to show the amplitudes changes at different offsets and the bright amplitudes were observed on the far-offset stack. AVO analysis was applied to the observed bright spot anomaly following the standart data processing steps. The analysis includes the preparation of Intercept, Gradient and Fluid Factor sections of AVO attribues. Top and base boundaries of gas bearing sediment were shown by intercept - gradient crossplot method. 1D modelling was also performed to show AVO classes and models were compared with the analysis results. It is interpreted that the bright spot anomaly arises from a shallow gas accumulation. In addition, the gas saturation from P-wave velocity was also estimated by the analysis. AVO analysis indicated Class 3 and Class 4 AVO anomalies observed on the bright spot anomaly.

Tsunami Induced Sedimentation in Ports; A Case Study in Haydarpasa Harbor, Marmara Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yalçıner, A. C.; Kian, R.; Velioglu, D.; Zaytsev, A.

2015-12-01

The movement of sea bottom or ground sediment material by tsunami cause erosion, deposition and hence bathymetry and topogrphy changes. The unexpected depth decrease at some parts of the enclosed basins and harbors may result in lack of movements of vessels. In order to understand the sediment movement inside the enclosed basins, Haydarpasa port in the sea of Marama is selected as a case study to understand the motion of tsunamis inside the port and identify their effects on harbor functions. The highest populated mega city Istanbul, located at north coast of the Sea of Marmara is one of the main centers of major economic activities in the region. In the study, the spatial and temporal changes of main tsunami parameters are investigated and their adverse effects on harbor performance are identified by analyzing the critical tsunami parameters (water elevation, current speed and momentum fluxes) in the port. Furthermore, the morphological changes due to tsunami induced flows are also considered. The morphological changes due to tsunamis can be governed by bathymetry and topography, tsunami current and the characteristics of ground material. Rouse number is one of the indicators to describe the initiation of sediment motion and transport modes under the flow. Therefore the morphological changes can be monitored by monitoring the change of the Rouse number. In this study the spatial and temporal change of Rouse number and hence modes of sediment transport in Haydarpasa port during a tsunami is investigated. Finally the functional loss of the port and the necessary strategies for reduction of tsunami impact and increase of resilience are also discussed. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe)".

Determination of Seismic Activity on the Main Marmara Fault with GPS Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alkan, M. N.; Alkan, R. M.; Yavaşoğlu, H.; Köse, Z.; Aladoğan, K.; Özbey, V.

2017-12-01

The tectonic plates that creates the Earth have always been an important topic to work on for Geosciences. Plate motion affecting the Earth's crust have occurred for millions of years. This slow but continuous movement that has been going on for millions of years can only be followed by instrumental measurements. In recent years, this process has been done with GPS very accurately. The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a major right-lateral, strike-slip fault that extends more than 1200 km extends along all North Anatolia from Bingol to Saros Gulf. The NAFZ is divided into Southern and Northern Branches to the east of Marmara region that several destructive earthquakes occurred, such as Izmit (in 1999, Mw=7.4) and Duzce (in 1999, Mw=7.2) in the last century. MMF (Main Marmara Fault) which is the part of the Northern Branch in the Marmara Sea, starting in from the Gulf of Izmit-Adapazarı and reaching the Gulf of Saros. The determination of the deformation accumulated on the MMF has become extremely important especially after the 1999 Izmit earthquake. According to the recent studies, the MMF is the largest unbroken part of the fault and is divided into segments. These segments are Cinarcik, Prince Island, Central Marmara and Tekirdag. Recent studies have demonstrated that the Prince Island segment is fully locked. However, studies that are focused on the Central Marmara segment, that is located offshore Istanbul, a giant metropole that has more than 14 million populations, do not conclude about the presence of a seismic gap, capable of generating a big earthquake. Therefore, in the scope of this study, a new GPS network was established at short and long distance from the Main Marmara Fault, to densify the existing GPS network. 3 campaign GPS measurements were done in 2015, 2016, 2017. The evaluation of the datasets were done by GAMIT/GLOBK software. For the evaluation, 30 continuous observation stations, 14 stations connected to the IGS network and 16 stations

Variability of Ozone, OX and NOx in Rural and Urban Areas in Marmara Region of Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasparoǧlu, Sabin; İncecik, Selahattin; Topçu, H. Sema

2017-04-01

Marmara region is located in northwest of Turkey and it is bordered by Greece and the Aegean Sea to the west, and Bulgaria, the Black Sea to the north covers about 11,000 km2. Sea of Marmara is located at the center of the region. The region has the largest population in Turkey with about 23 million inhabitants. It is Turkey's main industrial region and It is the territory which is provided by a quarter of the Turkish economy. Moreover, the region is economically the most developed area of Turkey. Its agricultural potential is very rich. For example, about 73% of the sunflower production and 30 % of corn production of Turkey is done in this region. The aim of the study is to assess the spatial and temporal variations in O3, NO, and NO2 in Marmara region of Turkey based on the analysis of hourly concentrations collected at 22 monitoring stations (7 rural and 15 urban) over three years (2013-2016). This is the first study in the region. In this way possible reasons of the results will be useful in the design of control strategies for photochemical pollution in this region. For this purpose, diurnal variations of NOx, O3 and OX were examined for rural and urban sites. The total levels of oxidant (OX) which are considered to be sum of O3 and NO2 were determined. In rural sites, NOx concentrations are generally lower than at urban and polluted sites of Marmara region. We found that usually O3 peak time in rural areas are occurred at around 15:00 LST while mean peak values vary between 70-85 µg/m3. The highest mean concentrations of NO were also observed at 09:00 LST around 35-50 µg/m3 in rural areas while varies at the highest at around 75-85 µg/m3 in polluted sites. Due to the NOx -dependent contribution corresponds to local production of ozone and the NOx -independent contribution corresponds to regional concentrations, we examined OX versus NOx for daytime (10:00-18:00LST) and nighttime (19:00-09:00LST)periods to understand the contaminants of NOx from local

Seafloor geodetic survey revealed partial creep of North Anatolian Fault at the western part of the Sea of Marmara, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kido, Motoyuki; Yamamoto, Ryusuke; Ohta, Yusaku; Takahashi, Narumi; Yamamoto, Yujiro; Kalafat, Dogan; Pinar, Ali; Ozener, Haluk; Ozeren, Sinan; Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

2017-04-01

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is known to sequentially ruptured from the east to the west crossing the Turkish mainland in the past century, which periodically wreaked severe destruction. The latest failures are Izmit and Duzce Earthquakes (1999) just at the east bound of the Sea of Marmara. Thus, the Marmara region remains un-ruptured and is expected high seismic risk. The coupling condition of the fault plane controls the rate of stress accumulation and is critical for the risk assessment. Therefore, we applied seafloor geodetic technique to relevel the coupling condition of NAF beneath the Sea of Marmara, where space geodetic technique, such as GNSS or InSAR, cannot be applicable. Seafloor acoustic extensometers were employed to directly measure changes in a baseline length between a pair of instruments as roundtrip time. Applying appropriate correction for temperature of sea water on sound speed and for instrumental attitude on exact position of the acoustic element, the technique has a potential to resolve sub-centimeter movement. The Western High is selected as a target area for the reasons that: no major branch fault is found to avoid dispersion of creep partitioning; fault trace on the seafloor is well identified to minimize the baseline length for installation; developed topographic trough suited for clearance of acoustic paths across NAF. We deployed five instruments, which alternately locate northern and southern side of NAF, just like a figure 'W'. Baseline lengths of the neighboring paths are roughly 1 km. Currently, ranging data of four baselines for 20 months since Sept. 2014 were recovered through acoustic data transfer and the measurement still continues. Although the depth of the Western High is only 700 m, temperature change is quite modest because of the dichotomy of density stratification in the water column. Temperature change among the instruments were nearly coherent and showed slight increase throughout the period. Attitude changes showed

Fluid activity within the North Anatolian Fault Zone according to 3D marine seismic data on the Sea of Marmara Western High

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grall, C.; Henry, P.; Thomas, Y.; Marsset, B.; Westbrook, G.; Saritas, H.; Géli, L.; Ruffine, L.; Dupré, S.; Scalabrin, C.; Augustin, J. M.; Cifçi, G.; Zitter, T.

2012-04-01

Along the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) within the Sea of Marmara, numerous gas seeps occur. A large part of the gas origin is biogenic but on the Western High, gas bubbles and gas hydrate with a thermogenic signature have been sampled. The expulsion of deep fluids opened new perspective about the permeability, the mechanical properties and the monitoring of the NAFZ. Consequently, the Western High was selected for the deployment of a 3D seismic acquisition layout during the MARMESONET cruise (2009). Thirty-three km2 of high resolution seismic data (with a frequency content of 50-180 Hz) have been collected within the shear band of the fault. The SIMRAD EM-302 was also operated to detect acoustic anomalies related to the presence of gas bubbles in the water column. Within the upper sedimentary cover (seismic penetration ranges from 100 to 500 m bsf), high seismic amplitude variations of the reflectors allow to identify gas traps and gas pathways. Local high amplitude of negative polarity, such as flat spots and bright spots, are observed. Amplitude anomalies are located above and within anticlines and along normal faults. They often correlate with seafloor manifestations of fluid outflow and gas plumes in the water column. This suggests that gas migrates from depth towards the seafloor along normal faults and permeable strata, and part of it is trapped in anticlines. North of the NAF, seabed mounds, corresponding to active hydrocarbon gas seeps, are aligned along a NE-SW direction. They are linked in depth to buried mud volcanoes with an episodic activity. The last mud eruption activity apparently just before or during the Red-H1 horizon deposition which is a prominent reflector of high amplitude and negative polarity occurring all over the Sea of Marmara. It has been interpreted as a stratigraphic horizon, corresponding to slow sedimentation and high sea-level interglacial period.

3-D P Wave Velocity Structure of Marmara Region Using Local Earthquake Tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Işık, S. E.; Gurbuz, C.

2014-12-01

The 3D P wave velocity model of upper and lower crust of the Marmara Region between 40.200- 41.200N and 26.500- 30.500E is obtained by tomographic inversion (Simulps) of 47034 P wave arrivals of local earthquakes recorded at 90 land stations between October 2009 and December 2012 and 30 OBO stations and 14162 shot arrivals recorded at 35 OBO stations (Seismarmara Survey, 2001). We first obtained a 1D minimum model with Velest code in order to obtain an initial model for 3D inversion with 648 well located earthquakes located within the study area. After several 3D inversion trials we decided to create a more adequate initial model for 3D inversion. Choosing the initial model we estimated the 3D P wave velocity model representing the whole region both for land and sea. The results are tested by making Checkerboard , Restoring Resolution and Characteristic Tests, and the reliable areas of the resulting model is defined in terms of RDE, DWS, SF and Hit count distributions. By taking cross sections from the resulting model we observed the vertical velocity change along profiles crossing both land and sea. All the profiles crossing the basins showed that the high velocities of lower crust make extensions towards the basin area which looks like the force that gives a shape to the basins. These extensions of lower crust towards the basins appeared with an average velocity of 6.3 km/s which might be the result of the deformation due the shearing in the region. It is also interpreted that the development of these high velocities coincide with the development of the basins. Thus, both the basins and the high velocity zones around them might be resulted from the entrance of the NAF into the Marmara Sea and at the same time a shear regime was dominated due to the resistance of the northern Marmara Region (Yılmaz, 2010). The seismicity is observed between 5 km and 15 km after the 3D location of the earthquakes. The locations of the earthquakes improved and the seismogenic zone

Seismic stratigraphy and depositional history of the Büyükçekmece Bay since Latest Pleistocene, Marmara Sea, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vardar, Denizhan; Alp, Hakan; Alpar, Bedri

2018-02-01

High-resolution seismic data shed light on latest Pleistocene and Holocene sedimentation beneath the Büyükçekmece Bay, northern shelf area of the Marmara Sea, Turkey. Discontinuous fluvio-marine and marine deposits overlying the erosional truncation surface of Oligocene-Lower Miocene deposits are as thick as 30 m and preserved preferentially within the incised valleys that were controlled by some old faults. A series of prograding shoreline, laterally passing to the latest Pleistocene-Holocene valley-fill deposits, are thought to have accumulated mainly during times of shoreline transgression and sea-level rise. The overall morphology and stratigraphic setting observed in the Büyükçekmece Bay and at the southern outlet of the Bosphorus Strait have nearly same characteristics, implying that similar hydrodynamic conditions, erosional and depositional processes were mainly under the control of strong northerly flows during the Late Quaternary. These flows were less powerful in the Büyükçekmece region with decreased sediment input and smaller accommodation space.

Distribution and environmental impacts of heavy metals and radioactivity in sediment and seawater samples of the Marmara Sea.

PubMed

Otansev, Pelin; Taşkın, Halim; Başsarı, Asiye; Varinlioğlu, Ahmet

2016-07-01

In this study, the natural and anthropogenic radioactivity levels in the sediment samples collected from the Marmara Sea in Turkey were determined. The average activity concentrations (range) of (226)Ra, (238)U, (232)Th, (40)K and (137)Cs were found to be 23.8 (13.8-34.2) Bq kg(-1), 18.8 (6.4-25.9) Bq kg(-1), 23.02 (6.3-31.1) Bq kg(-1), 558.6 (378.8-693.6) Bq kg(-1) and 9.14 (4.8-16.3) Bq kg(-1), respectively. Our results showed that the average activity concentrations of (226)Ra, (238)U and (232)Th in the sediment samples were within the acceptable limits; whereas the average activity concentration of (40)K in the sediment samples was higher than the worldwide average concentration. The average radium equivalent activity, the average absorbed dose rate and the average external hazard index were calculated as 100.01 Bq kg(-1), 48.32 nGy h(-1) and 0.27, respectively. The average gross alpha and beta activity in the seawater samples were found to be 0.042 Bq L(-1) and 13.402 Bq L(-1), respectively. The gross alpha and beta activity concentrations increased with water depth in the same stations. The average heavy metal concentrations (range) in the sediment samples were 114.6 (21.6-201.7) μg g(-1) for Cr, 568.2 (190.8-1625.1) μg g(-1) for Mn, 39.3 (4.9-83.4) μg g(-1) for Cu, 85.5 (11.0-171.8) μg g(-1) for Zn, 32.9 (9.1-73.1) μg g(-1) for Pb and 49.1 (6.8-103.0) μg g(-1) for Ni. S5 station was heavily polluted by Cr, Cu, Ni and Pb. The results showed that heavy metal enrichment in sediments of the Marmara Sea was widespread. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GONAF - A borehole Geophysical Observatory around the North Anatolian Fault in the Eastern Sea of Marmara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohnhoff, Marco; Dresen, Georg; Ceken, Ulubey; Tuba Kadarioglu, Filiz; Feyiz Kartal, Recai; Kilic, Tugbay; Nurlu, Murat; Yanik, Kenan; Acarel, Digdem; Bulut, Fatih; Ito, Hisao; Johnson, Wade; Malin, Peter Eric; Mencin, Dave

2017-04-01

The Marmara section of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) runs under water and is located less than 20 km from the 15-million-person population center of Istanbul at its eastern portion. Based on historical seismicity data, recurrence times forecast an impending magnitude M>7 earthquake for this region. The permanent GONAF Geophysical Observatory at the North Anatolian Fault has been installed around this section to help capture the seismic and strain activity preceding, during, and after such an anticipated event. The GONAF observatory is currently comprised of seven 300 m deep vertical seismic profiling stations and four collocated 100 m deep borehole strainmeters. Five of the stations are located on the land surrounding the Princes Islands segment below the eastern Sea of Marmara and two are on the near-fault Princes Islands south of Istanbul. The 300 m boreholes have 1, 2, and 15 Hz 3-C seismometers near their bottoms. Above this are vertical, 1 Hz, seismometers at 210, 140, and 70 m depths. The strainmeter boreholes are located within a few meters of the seismometer boreholes and contain horizontal strain tensor sensors and 2 Hz 3-C seismometers at their bottoms. This selection of instruments and depths was done so as to ensure high-precision and broad-frequency earthquake monitoring and vertical profiling, all under low-noise conditions. GONAF is the first ICDP-driven project with a primarily focus on long-term monitoring of fault-zone dynamics. It has already contributed to earthquake hazard studies in the Istanbul area in several ways. Combining GONAF recordings with existing regional seismic stations now allows monitoring of the NAFZ offshore Istanbul down to magnitudes M<0. GONAF also improves the resolution of earthquake hypocenters and source parameters, better defining local fault branches, their seismicity, and earthquake potential. Using its vertical distribution of sensors, it has directly measured depth-dependent seismic site-effects for ground

Seismic evidence for change of the tectonic regime in Messinian, northern Marmara Sea, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alp, Hakan; Vardar, Denizhan; Alpar, Bedri; Ustaömer, Timur

2018-01-01

New Chirp seismic data collected from the northern margin of the Marmara Sea in June 2015 and previous Sparker seismic profiles recorded in 1999 suggest a change in tectonic regime in Messinian. New tectonic lineaments and fault segments were detected at offshore the Çekmece lagoons region that is located on one of the possible water corridors with the Paratethys. The faults only affect the older seismic unit (U1), which can be best outlined on the Chirp data. The E-W trending fault offshore Avcılar (OAF) borders the northern edge of a tightly folded sedimentary zone. The NNE-SSW trending fault, namely the Büyükçekmece Fault (BF), passing through the Büyükçekmece Bay, follows a buried valley. Its evolution must be related to the development of the Early Miocene - Early Pliocene Thrace-Eskişehir fault zone (TEFZ). BF and OAF indicate old tectonic activities in the region, which continued to the North Anatolian fault becoming the most dominant tectonic element in the region. The upper surface of the stratigraphic unit U1 and its terraces define the thickness of younger deposits (U2), which is thinner in the middle of the shelf. The morphology of the tightly folded zone controls those terraces, which correspond to the Bakırköy Formation and Kıraç member on land. The topmost parts of the terraces must have been eroded during sea level low-stands and cutting of the paleo-valleys. There is no evidence of any tectonic deformation or active fault in the younger seismic unit (U2).

Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in The Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey (SATREPS Project: Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development by JICA-JST)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

2015-04-01

Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in The Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey (SATREPS Project: Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development by JICA-JST) Yoshiyuki KANEDA Disaster mitigation center Nagoya University/ Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) Mustafa ELDIK Boğaziçi University, Kandilli Observatory and 　　　　　　Earthquake Researches Institute (KOERI) and Members of SATREPS Japan-Turkey project The target of this project is the Marmara Sea earthquake after the Izmit (Kocaeli) Earthquake 1999 along to the North Anatolian fault. According to occurrences of historical Earthquakes, epicenters have moved from East to West along to the North Anatolian Fault. There is a seismic gap in the Marmara Sea. In Marmara region, there is Istanbul with high populations such as Tokyo. Therefore, Japan and Turkey can share our own experiences during past damaging earthquakes and we can prepare for future large Earthquakes and Tsunamis in cooperation with each other in SATREPS project. This project is composed of Multidisciplinary research project including observation researches, simulation researches, educational researches, and goals are as follows, ① To develop disaster mitigation policy and strategies based on Multidisciplinary research activities. ② To provide decision makers with newly found knowledge for its implementation to the current regulations. ③ To organize disaster education programs in order to increase disaster awareness in Turkey. ④ To contribute the evaluation of active fault studies in Japan. In this SATREPS project, we will integrate Multidisciplinary research results for disaster mitigation in Marmara region and .disaster education in Turkey.

Seismarmara 2001: A Marine Seismic Survey and Offshore-onshore Artificial Source and Natural Earthquakes In The Seismogenic Region of The Sea of Marmara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirn, A.; Singh, S.; Charvis, P.; Géli, L.; Laigle, M.; Lépine, J.-C.; de Voogd, B.; Saatcilar, R.; Taymaz, T.; Ozalaybey, S.; Shimamura, H.; Selvi, O.; Karabulut, H.; Murai, Y.; Nishimura, Y.; Yamada, A.; Vigner, A.; Bazin, S.; Tan, O.; Yolsal, S.; Aktar, M.; Galvé, A.; Sapin, M.; Marthelot, J.-M.; Imren, C.; Ergin, M.; Tapirdamaz, C.; Koçaoglu, A.; Tarancioglu, A.; Diaz, J.; Verhille, J.; Auffret, Y.; Cetin, S.; Oçakoglu, N.; Karakoç, F.; Klien, E.; Ricolleau, A.; Selvigen, V.; Demirbag, E.; Hakyemez, Y.; Sarikawak, K.

SEISMARMARA is a Turkish-French survey carried out in July-October 2001 as a multi-method approach of seismic structure and activity of the Sea of Marmara. This is the segment of the North Anatolian Fault system that continues the one that produced the two destructive earthquakes in 1999 to the East, and is prone to future major earth- quakes as it has experienced in the past. Aims of the programme are to shed light on the regional tectonics and recent evolution at crustal scale, image faults by their structure and seismic activity, and provide a model and reference to improve loca- tion of earthquakes and focal mechanism studies. The programme bases on marine multichannel reflection seismics (MCS), ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) and land stations recording of wide-angle reflection-refraction from the same source, as well as recording of local earthquakes for tomography and stress/strain distribution. The French N/O Le Nadir acquired 4000 km of MCS profiles in the northern Sea of Mar- mara, using a 4.5 km long digital streamer with 360-channels and sources of 8100 cu. in., or 2900 cu. in., provided by a 12-airgun array in single-bubble mode. Navigation safety was provided by a vessel of the Turkish Coast Guards (Sahil Güvenlik), Leg 1 comprises 4 E-W lines and 30 cross-lines in the whole Marmara Trough, leg 2 has 1 been devoted to a very dense grid of lines in the Cinarcik basin and its margins, record- ing over 80 dip-lines at 0.6-0.9 km spacing At sea-bottom 38 OBS, with 3-component sensors and continuous recording over 1 to 2-month in order to also record natural earthquakes were deployed and collected by the Turkish ship MTA Sismik-1. On land the permanent array has been complemented by as many temporary stations, in par- ticular over 30 continuous recording 3-component 2 Hz stations. Refraction seismics from offshore to onshore was further implemented by short-duration deployments of vertical component lightweight instruments with short recording capacity. A

The Change in Black Sea Water Composition and Hydrology during Deglaciation from Multiproxy Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanchilina, A.; Ryan, W. B. F.; McManus, J. F.

2014-12-01

This study presents a reconstruction of changes in the water column from the last glacial into the early Holocene using stable isotope, 87Sr/86Sr, 14C, and trace element ratios from mollusks from the shelf area and ostracods from the basin of the Black Sea. The stable isotope record is compared to a thoroughly U/Th dated terrestrial stable isotope record of a nearby cave, Sofular cave in northwestern Turkey. The combination of deep, surface, and terrestrial signals gives valuable insight towards the behavior of the lake water during the deglaciation in multiple dimensions, specifically the water column stratification and hydrological dynamics. The comparison of the stable isotope records of two independent proxies allows to make inferences on the changes in the 14C reservoir of the Black Sea-Lake. Results show that during the glacial period, water from the Black Sea-Lake was outflowing to the Sea of Marmara but the ventilation of the water column was weak as old 14C was not removed and allowed to accumulate giving the lake a large 14C reservoir age. A deglacial pulse of meltwater released from the Eurasian Fennoscandian pro-glacial lakes increased ventilation of the water column. This is seen in lighter δ18O and a spike in radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr in both deep and shallow parts of the water column. The dynamic ventilation and outflow of water into the Sea of Marmara continued until the onset of the Bolling/Allerod as the radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr was almost completely flushed out in a couple hundred years time. During the Bolling/Allerod and Preboreal warming, δ18O got heavier whereas the 87Sr/86Sr stayed constant and the 14C again accumulated and contributed to an older reservoir age. The Younger Dryas period, sandwiched in between the two warming periods, shows a return to glacial conditions in the δ13C and that the water outflowed to the Sea of Marmara as the δ18O only showed a slight change towards a more heavy value.

Establishment of borehole observation system and high resolution seismic studies in the western part of the main Marmara Fault in the frame of MARSite Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozel, A.; Yalcinkaya, E.; Guralp, C. M.; Tunc, S.; Meral Ozel, N.

2013-12-01

The main objective of this study is to install a multi-parameter borehole system and surface array as close to the main Marmara Fault (MMF) in the western Marmara Sea as possible, and measure continuously the evolution of the state of the fault zone surrounding the MMF and to detect any anomaly or change which may occur before earthquakes by making use of the data from the arrays already running in the eastern part of the Marmara Sea. The multi-parameter borehole system will be composed of very wide dynamic range and stable borehole (VBB) broad band seismic sensor, and incorporate 3-D strain meter, tilt meter, and temperature and local hydrostatic pressure measuring devices. The borehole seismic station will use the latest update technologies and design ideas to record 'Earth tides' signals to the smallest magnitude -3 events. Bringing face to face the seismograms of microearthquakes recorded by borehole and surface instruments portrays quite different contents. The shorter recording duration and nearly flat frequency spectrum up to the Nyquist frequencies of borehole records are faced with longer recording duration and rapid decay of spectral amplitudes at higher frequencies of a surface seismogram. The main causative of the observed differences are near surface geology effects that mask most of the source related information the seismograms include, and that give rise to scattering, generating longer duration seismograms. In view of these circumstances, studies on microearthquakes employing surface seismograms may bring on misleading results. Particularly, the works on earthquake physics and nucleation process of earthquakes requires elaborate analysis of tiny events. It is obvious from the studies on the nucleation process of the 1999 earthquake that tens of minutes before the major rupture initiate noteworthy microearthquake activity happened. The starting point of the 1999 rupture was a site of swarm activity noticed a few decades prior the main shock

Stress accumulation in the Marmara Sea estimated through ground-motion simulations from dynamic rupture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo; Douglas, John; Ulrich, Thomas

2017-03-01

We compare ground motions simulated from dynamic rupture scenarios, for the seismic gap along the North Anatolian Fault under the Marmara Sea (Turkey), to estimates from empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Ground motions are simulated using a finite difference method and a 3-D model of the local crustal structure. They are analyzed at more than a thousand locations in terms of horizontal peak ground velocity. Characteristics of probable earthquake scenarios are strongly dependent on the hypothesized level of accumulated stress, in terms of a normalized stress parameter T. With respect to the GMPEs, it is found that simulations for many scenarios systematically overestimate the ground motions at all distances. Simulations for only some scenarios, corresponding to moderate stress accumulation, match the estimates from the GMPEs. The difference between the simulations and the GMPEs is used to quantify the relative probabilities of each scenario and, therefore, to revise the probability of the stress field. A magnitude Mw7+ operating at moderate prestress field (0.6 < T ≤ 0.7) is statistically more probable, as previously assumed in the logic tree of probabilistic assessment of rupture scenarios. This approach of revising the mechanical hypothesis by means of comparison to an empirical statistical model (e.g., a GMPE) is useful not only for practical seismic hazard assessments but also to understand crustal dynamics.

Sedimentary earthquake records in the İzmit Gulf, Sea of Marmara, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Çağatay, M. N.; Erel, L.; Bellucci, L. G.; Polonia, A.; Gasperini, L.; Eriş, K. K.; Sancar, Ü.; Biltekin, D.; Uçarkuş, G.; Ülgen, U. B.; Damcı, E.

2012-12-01

Sedimentary earthquake records of the last 2400 a, including that of the devastating 17 August 1999 İzmit earthquake (Mw = 7.4), were studied in cores from the 210 m-deep central Karamürsel Basin of the İzmit Gulf in the eastern Sea of Marmara, using laser grain-size, physical properties, stable O and C isotopes and XRF Core Scanner analyses, and dated by radionuclide and radiocarbon methods. The earthquake records are represented by turbidite-homogenite mass-flow units (THU) that commonly contain a basal coarse layer, a middle laminated silt layer and an overlying homogeneous mud layer. The coarse basal part has a sharp and sometimes scoured lower boundary, and includes multiple coarse (sand/silt) layers or laminae showing normal size grading. Multiple coarse layers and occasional bi-directional cross-bedding suggest deposition from a bed-load during water column oscillations, or seiche effect. The grain-size characteristics of the overlaying laminated silt and the homogeneous mud units indicate deposition from weak oscillating currents and homogeneous suspension, respectively. High Mn value just below the base of THUs suggests diagenetic enrichment at oxic/anoxic redox boundary before the mass-flow event. Sharp decrease in Mn with very low values within the THUs suggests transient redox conditions following the mass-flow. Variable geochemical compositions of the basal coarse layers indicate different sediment sources for different THUs. Eight sedimentary earthquake records observed in the last 2400 a in the İzmit Gulf can be confidently correlated with the historical earthquakes of 1999, 1509 AD (Ms = 7.2), 1296 AD (I = VII), 865 AD (I = VIII), 740 AD (I = VIII), 268 AD (I = VIII), 358 AD (I = IX), and 427 BC. This gives an earthquake recurrence time of ca. 300 a, with the interval between consecutive events ranging from 90 to 695 a.

Analysis of Synoptic Weather Types and Its Influence on Precipitation in the Marmara Region (NW Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltaci, H.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Karaca, M.

2012-04-01

In this study, we investigated the relationship between synoptic weather types and rainfall patterns in the Marmara region, northwestern part of Turkey. For this purpose, the automated Lamb weather type classification method was applied to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily mean sea level pressure data for the period between 2001 and 2010. Ten synoptic weather types were found that represent the 90% of the synoptic patterns that affect the Marmara region. Based on the annual frequency analysis, mainly six synoptic weather types, 24% (NorthEast), 21% (North), 11% (South), 9% (SouthWest), 7% (Anticyclonic), 5% (Cyclonic), were found dominant in the region. Multiple comparison tests suggest that (i.e., Bonferroni test) northerly patterns (i.e., North and NorthEast) have statistically significantly higher percentages as compared to the southerly (i.e., South and SouthWest) and the rest of the patterns (i.e., Anticylonic and Cylonic). During winter months, N- and NE-patterns observed less frequently than the annual frequencies of them, 18% and 13% of the period, respectively. On the other hand, due to the formation of the low pressure center located over the central Mediterranean Sea, S- and SW-patterns were observed more frequently than their annual mean frequencies, 16% and 17%, respectively. During summer months, N- and NE-patterns become dominant in the region, and they constitute about three quarters of the period, 25% and 44%, respectively. The low pressure center located over central Anatolia and Black Sea brings moist and cool air to the region, preventing excessive heating during the summer season. Cyclonic patterns observed less frequent during the winter and fall months, about 3%. They become more frequent during the summer season, 9% as a result of the shifting of the subtropical jet stream to the south, and the seasonal movement of the Basra low pressure toward the inner and northern parts of the Anatolian peninsula. On the other hand, Anticyclonic patterns are

Assessment of phytoplankton and environmental variables for water quality and trophic state classification in the Gemlik Gulf, Marmara Sea (Turkey).

PubMed

Balci, Muharrem; Balkis, Neslihan

2017-02-15

Phytoplankton assemblages related to environmental factors and ecological status of the Gemlik Gulf were investigated between June 2010 and May 2011. A total 155 phytoplankton species were detected and 6 taxa (Amphisolenia laticincta, Archaeperidinium minutum, Cochlodinium sp., Gynogonadinium aequatoriale, Heterocapsa rotundata and Metaphalacroma sp.) were new records for the Turkish Seas. The lowest and highest total phytoplankton abundance among the sampling units (depths) was recorded in April 2011 (7.4×10 3 cellsL -1 ) and July 2010 (251.8×10 3 cellsL -1 ). Local small patches of visible red tide events were detected especially in the gulf, although a phytoplankton bloom was not observed. The water column was well stratified in the early autumn and well mixed in the early spring according to stratification index values. Surface nutrient concentrations increased especially at stations located inside of the gulf. The limiting effect of silicate was observed in early, mid-summer and early winter periods while the nitrogen was the limiting nutrient in the gulf during the whole sampling period. In the Gulf, low water quality-high mesotrophic and bad water quality-eutrophic status, high quality and low trophic level were generally detected according to Chl a, dissolved oxygen and trophic index. However, indices developed to determine the trophic level and water quality of the Mediterranean Sea can give unexpected results about the current environmental quality status when it is applied to the Marmara Sea which has limited photic zone by the halocline-pycnocline and thermocline. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ground motion simulations in Marmara (Turkey) region from 3D finite difference method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo; Ulrich, Thomas; Douglas, John

2016-04-01

In the framework of the European project MARSite (2012-2016), one of the main contributions from our research team was to provide ground-motion simulations for the Marmara region from various earthquake source scenarios. We adopted a 3D finite difference code, taking into account the 3D structure around the Sea of Marmara (including the bathymetry) and the sea layer. We simulated two moderate earthquakes (about Mw4.5) and found that the 3D structure improves significantly the waveforms compared to the 1D layer model. Simulations were carried out for different earthquakes (moderate point sources and large finite sources) in order to provide shake maps (Aochi and Ulrich, BSSA, 2015), to study the variability of ground-motion parameters (Douglas & Aochi, BSSA, 2016) as well as to provide synthetic seismograms for the blind inversion tests (Diao et al., GJI, 2016). The results are also planned to be integrated in broadband ground-motion simulations, tsunamis generation and simulations of triggered landslides (in progress by different partners). The simulations are freely shared among the partners via the internet and the visualization of the results is diffused on the project's homepage. All these simulations should be seen as a reference for this region, as they are based on the latest knowledge that obtained during the MARSite project, although their refinement and validation of the model parameters and the simulations are a continuing research task relying on continuing observations. The numerical code used, the models and the simulations are available on demand.

Evolution of potential ecological impacts of the bottom sediment from the Gulf of Gemlik; Marmara Sea, Turkey.

PubMed

Unlü, Selma; Alpar, Bedri

2009-12-01

The eastern and southern coasts of the Gulf of Gemlik, a resort in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, are under the influence of rapid ecotourism development, direct domestic and industrial discharges via rivers and outfalls, surface run-off, drainage from ports and shipping. According to sediment quality criteria in use around the world, sediment quality in the gulf shows a broad spectrum. It is more related by direct input, rather than by the type of sediment, and excluding inner port and southern coasts, it does not exert adverse biological effects yet. The total PAH concentrations range from 51 to 13,482 ng/g dry weight with the mean value of 1,850 ng/g dry weight (n = 61). The elevated values of the total toxic Benzo[a]pyrene equivalency (TEQcarc), with a maximum of 1,838 ng/g dry weight, were found at the inner harbor of Gemlik, possibly posing hazard to benthic organisms. Among the different PAHs, the contribution to the total TEQcarc decreased as the following order: Benzo[a]pyrene (43.6%) > Benzo[k]fluoranthene (36.0%) > Indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene (35.1%) > Benzo[b]fluoranthene (20.0%) > Chrysene + Triphenylene (18.9%) > Benzo[a]anthracene (12.5%).

Holocene ruptures along the North Anatolia Fault in the Marmara Sea, Turkey: Sedimentary processes, spatial extent and age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braudy, N.; McHugh, C. M.; Cagatay, M.; Seeber, L.; Henry, P.; Geli, L.

2010-12-01

The North Anatolian fault (NAF), which extends east west for over 1600 km across Turkey, is one of the world's major continental transforms. Since 1939, a sequence of M>7 earthquakes ruptured progressively westward the entire NAF east of Marmara. The most recent and westernmost events in this sequence, the Mw7.4 Izmit and the Mw7.2 Duzce main shocks of 1999, ruptured about 160 km of the fault and were particularly destructive (~17,000 deaths). The only portion of the NAF that did not rupture in the last century is the segment beneath the Marmara Sea that is considered a seismic gap and presents high risk to Istanbul and surroundings. To decipher Holocene earthquake ruptures and the processes leading to their signature in the sedimentary record we applied submarine paleoseismology techniques to study a transect of three 10 m long cores recovered from the Central Basin. The sediments were analyzed with x-ray radiography, for grain size variability at cm-scale, geochemical elements at mm-scale and physical properties. These measurements were calibrated to a chronology developed from short-lived radioisotopes (137-Cs, 210-Pb) and radiocarbon. Turbidites were sampled from the deepest part of the Central Basin, from 1248 to 1262 m depth. As previously documented by McHugh et al (2006), these turbidites are characterized by multiple sand and coarse silt beds, each normally graded, and that together grade upwards into a non-stratified silt that also fines upwards. Elemental concentrations of Al and Si increase with the sand and coarser silt components indicative of an influx of terrigenous components. These complex turbidites-homogenites are as thick as 1 m and dominate the sedimentation in the basin (≈80%). The remainder includes 10 to 20 cm thick fining upwards silt deposits. We interpret these depositional events to represent large earthquakes, the ones including transport of sand are proximal, and the ones without the sand are distal. We measured concentrations of Ca

Near-Surface Dispersion and Circulation in the Marmara Sea (MARMARA)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

NURC (P.I.s: Drs. S. Besiktepe and J. Chiggiato ) • The NRL Exchange Processes in Ocean Straits (EPOS) project to improve our understanding on the...View/AEGEAN_SEA ) PUBLICATIONS Chiggiato , J., S. Besiktepe, E. Jarosz, J. Book, R. Gerin, P.-M. Poulain and L. Torrisi (2010) Numerical modelling of...EGU2010-2697. Chiggiato , J., S. Besiktepe, E. Jarosz, J. Book, R. Gerin, P.-M. Poulain and L. Torrisi (2010) Numerical modelling of the surface

Spatio-temporal variations of soil radon patterns around the Sea of Marmara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passarelli, Luigi; Seyis, Cemil; Woith, Heiko

2016-04-01

Typically, the noble gas radon displays cyclic daily (S1), semidiurnal (S2) as well as seasonal variations in geological environments like soil air, groundwater, rock, caves, and tunnels. But there are also cases where theses cycles are absent. We present examples from a radon monitoring network of 21 sites around the Sea of Marmara. The works were carried out in the frame of MARsite, a project related to the EU supersite initiative (MARsite has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308417). Alpha-meters from the Canadian company alpha-nuclear are used to measure the radon concentration in counts per 15 minutes at a depth of 80 cm. The long-term average radon concentrations at 21 sites vary between 35 and 1,000 counts per 15 minutes. Typical seasonal variations are absent at more than 6 sites. Sites with seasonal variations have radon minima usually during winter (December to April), radon maxima during summer months (June to October). We carefully investigated radon time series for all the monitoring stations. We find that at some sites the empirical distribution of radon counts is clearly bimodal and in other bimodality is absent. In those stations we analysed the time series in different time intervals in order to highlight seasonal periodicity in the radon emission. The empirical distributions obtained by time-windowing of the radon signals results to be statistically different one another after applying a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at significance level of 0.1. Usually the maxima in radon emission occur in summer time but, interestingly enough, two sites are characterized by radon maxima in winter periods. We further investigate the radon signals seeking for smaller scale periodicity. We calculated Fourier spectra of all 21 sites. Daily cycles are absent at 6 sites which is an unusual phenomenon. Daily cycles may disappear, if the local system is heavily

Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in The Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey Part2 Yoshiyuki KANEDA Nagoya University Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) Haluk OZENER Boğaziçi University, Earthquake Researches Institute (KOERI) and Members of SATREPS Japan-Turkey project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneda, Y.; Ozener, H.

2015-12-01

The 1999 Izumit Earthquake as the destructive earthquake occurred near the Marmara Sea. The Marmara Sea should be focused on because of a seismic gap in the North Anatolian fault. Istanbul is located around the Marmara Sea, so, if next earthquake will occur near Istanbul, fatal damages will be generated. The Japan and Turkey can share our own experiences during past damaging earthquakes and we can prepare for future large earthquakes in cooperation with each other. In earthquakes in Tokyo area and Istanbul area as the destructive earthquakes near high population cities, there are common disaster researches and measures. For disaster mitigation, we are progressing multidisciplinary researches. Our goals of this SATREPS project are as follows, To develop disaster mitigation policy and strategies based on multidisciplinary research activities. To provide decision makers with newly found knowledge for its implementation to the current regulations. To organize disaster education programs in order to increase disaster awareness in Turkey. To contribute the evaluation of active fault studies in Japan. This project is composed of four research groups. The first group is Marmara Earthquake Source region observationally research group. This group has 4 sub-themes such as Seismicity, Geodesy, Electromagnetics and Trench analyses. The second group focuses on scenario researches of earthquake occurrence along the North Anatolia fault and precise tsunami simulation in the Marmara region. Aims of the third group are improvements and constructions of seismic characterizations and damage predictions based on observation researches and precise simulations. The fourth group is promoting disaster educations using research result visuals. In this SATREPS project, we will integrate these research results for disaster mitigation in Marmara region and .disaster education in Turkey. We will have a presentation of the updated results of this SATREPS project.

Holocene sedimentary processes in the Gemlik Gulf: a transtensional basin on the middle Strand of the North Anatolian Fault, Sea of Marmara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Özmaral, A.; Çagatay, M. N.; Imren, C.; Gasperini, L.; Henry, P.

2012-04-01

Gemlik Gulf is an oval-shaped transtensional basin with a maximum depth of 113 m, located on the middle strand of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in the eastern part of the Sea of Marmara (SOM). During the last glacial period until the Holocene marine transgression about 12 ka BP, the sea level was below the Çanakkale (Dardanelles) Strait's bedrock sill depth of -85 m, and the Gemlik Basin became a lake isolated lake from the rest of the Sea of Marmara "Lake" and the global ocean. The high resolution seismic profiles and the multi- beam bathymetric map of the basin show that the basin is characterized by NW-SE trending transtensional oblique faults, delta lobes of the Büyükdere (Kocadere) to the east and an erosional surface below an up to 15 m-thick Holocene mud drape. The Holocene mud drape was studied in up to 9.5 m-long gravity-piston and 0.84 m-long sediment/water interface cores located at -105 to -113 m in the basin's depocentre. The Holocene mud consists mainly of plastic gray green marine clayey mud that includes thick-red brown clay layers and a laminated organic-rich, dark olive green sapropel in the lower part, which was previously dated at 11.6-6.4 14Ckyr (uncalib) BP. Multi-proxy analyses of the Holocene mud drape in the sediment cores were carried out using Multisensor Core Logger, XRF Core Scanner equipped with digital X-Ray radiography, and laser particle size analyzer. Seismic-core correlation was made using seismic data of the chirp profiles at the core locations and the synthetic seismograms generated using the MSCL P-wave velocity and gamma density measurements. The long piston-gravity cores include five 20 to 100 mm-thick "red brown mud layers" in the top 2.5 m of the core. These layers have a sharp basal boundary and gradational upper boundary. The red brown layers consist of 55-75% clay-size material with an average grain size of 3-4 µm, and have relatively a high magnetic susceptibility. They are enriched in K, Fe, Ti and Zr that are

GONAF - the borehole Geophysical Observatory at the North Anatolian Fault in the eastern Sea of Marmara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohnhoff, Marco; Dresen, Georg; Ceken, Ulubey; Tuba Kadirioglu, Filiz; Feyiz Kartal, Recai; Kilic, Tugbay; Nurlu, Murat; Yanik, Kenan; Acarel, Digdem; Bulut, Fatih; Ito, Hisao; Johnson, Wade; Malin, Peter Eric; Mencin, Dave

2017-05-01

The Marmara section of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) runs under water and is located less than 20 km from the 15-million-person population center of Istanbul in its eastern portion. Based on historical seismicity data, recurrence times forecast an impending magnitude M>7 earthquake for this region. The permanent GONAF (Geophysical Observatory at the North Anatolian Fault) has been installed around this section to help capture the seismic and strain activity preceding, during, and after such an anticipated event.

Holocene sea level and climate change in the Black Sea: Multiple marine incursions related to freshwater discharge events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, R.E.; Leorri, E.; McLaughlin, P.P.

2007-01-01

Repeated marine invasions of the Black Sea during the Holocene have been inferred by many eastern scientists as resulting from episodes of marine inflow from the Mediterranean beneath a brackish outflow from the Black Sea. We support this scenario but a fundamental question remains: What caused the repeated marine invasions? We offer an hypothesis for the repeated marine invasions of the Black Sea based on: (1) the overall similarity of sea-level curves from both tectonically quiescent and active margins of the Black Sea and their similarity to a sequence stratigraphic record from the US mid-Atlantic coast. The similarity of the records from two widely-separated regions suggests their common response to documented Holocene climate ocean-atmosphere reorganizations (coolings); (2) the fact that in the modern Black Sea, freshwater runoff from surrounding rivers dominates over evaporation, so that excess runoff might have temporarily raised Black Sea level (although the Black Sea would have remained brackish). Following the initial invasion of the Black Sea by marine Mediterranean waters (through the Marmara Sea) in the early Holocene, repeated marine incursions were modulated, or perhaps even caused, by freshwater discharge to the Black Sea. Climatic amelioration (warming) following each documented ocean-atmosphere reorganization during the Holocene likely shifted precipitation patterns in the surrounding region and caused mountain glaciers to retreat, increasing freshwater runoff above modern values and temporarily contributing to an increase of Black Sea level. Freshwater-to-brackish water discharges into the Black Sea initially slowed marine inflow but upon mixing of runoff with more marine waters beneath them and their eventual exit through the Bosphorus, marine inflow increased again, accounting for the repeated marine invasions. The magnitude of the hydrologic and sea-level fluctuations became increasingly attenuated through the Holocene, as reflected by Black

The multi-parameter borehole system and high resolution seismic studies in the western part of the main Marmara Fault in the frame of MARSITE Project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozel, Oguz; Guralp, Cansun; Tunc, Suleyman; Yalcinkaya, Esref

2016-04-01

The main objective of this study is to install a multi-parameter borehole system and surface array as close to the main Marmara Fault (MMF) in the western Marmara Sea as possible, and measure continuously the evolution of the state of the fault zone surrounding the MMF and to detect any anomaly or change, which may occur before earthquakes by making use of the data from the arrays already running in the eastern part of the Marmara Sea. The multi-parameter borehole system is composed of very wide dynamic range and stable borehole (VBB) broad band seismic sensor, and incorporate strain meter, tilt meter, and temperature and local hydrostatic pressure measuring devices. The borehole seismic station uses the latest update technologies and design ideas to record "Earth tides" signals to the smallest magnitude -3 events. Additionally, a surface microearthquake observation array, consisting of 8-10 seismometers around the borehole is established to obtain continuous high resolution locations of micro-seismicity and to better understand the existing seismically active structures and their roles in local tectonic settings.Bringing face to face the seismograms of microearthquakes recorded by borehole and surface instruments portrays quite different contents. The shorter recording duration and nearly flat frequency spectrum up to the Nyquist frequencies of borehole records are faced with longer recording duration and rapid decay of spectral amplitudes at higher frequencies of a surface seismogram. The main causative of the observed differences are near surface geology effects that mask most of the source related information the seismograms include, and that give rise to scattering, generating longer duration seismograms. In view of these circumstances, studies on microearthquakes employing surface seismograms may bring on misleading results. Particularly, the works on earthquake physics and nucleation process of earthquakes requires elaborate analysis of tiny events. It is

Israel’s Blockade of Gaza, the Mavi Marmara Incident, and Its Aftermath

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-16

navy zodiac boats intercepted them and naval commandos took over five ships, reportedly without incident. However, the Marmara resisted and...CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Israel’s Blockade of Gaza, the Mavi Marmara Incident, and Its...Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response

New Directions in Seismic Hazard Assessment Through Focused Earth Observation in the MARmara SuperSITE - Project Achievements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meral OZel, Nurcan; Necmioǧlu, Öcal; Ergintav, Semih; Ozel, Oǧuz; Favali, Paolo; Bigarre, Pascal; Çakır, Ziyadin; Ozeren, Sinan; Geli, Louis; Douglas, John; Aochi, Hideo; Bossu, Remy; Zülfikar, Can; Şeşetyan, Karin; Erdik, Mustafa

2016-04-01

The MARsite Project, which started in November 2012,funded by the EC/ FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2 (Grant 308417) identifies the Marmara region as a 'Supersite' within European initiatives to aggregate on-shore, off-shore and space-based observations, comprehensive geophysical monitoring, improved hazard and risk assessments encompassed in an integrated set of activities. MARsite aimed to harmonize geological, geophysical, geodetic and geochemical observations to provide a better view of the post-seismic deformation of the 1999 Izmit earthquake (in addition to the post-seismic signature of previous earthquakes), loading of submarine and inland active fault segments and transient pre-earthquake signals, related to stress loading with different tectonic properties in and around Marmara Sea. This presentation provides an overview of the achievements of MARSite which aimed to coordinate research groups ranging from seismology to gas geochemistry in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed in the Marmara Region based on collection of multidisciplinary data to be shared, interpreted and merged in consistent theoretical and practical models suitable for the implementation of good practices to move the necessary information to the end users in charge of seismic risk management of the region. In addition, processes involved in earthquake generation and the physics of short-term seismic transients, 4D deformations to understand earthquake cycle processes, fluid activity monitoring and seismicity under the sea floor using existing autonomous instrumentation, early warning and development of real-time shake and loss information, real- and quasi-real-time earthquake and tsunami hazard monitoring and earthquake-induced landslide hazard topics are also covered within MARSite. In particular, achievements and progress in the design and building of a multi-parameter borehole system consisting of very wide dynamic range and stable borehole (VBB) broad band seismic sensor, with

Israel’s Blockade of Gaza, the Mavi Marmara Incident, and Its Aftermath

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-23

Israeli navy zodiac boats intercepted them and naval commandos took over five ships, reportedly without incident. However, the Marmara resisted and...CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Israel’s Blockade of Gaza, the Mavi Marmara Incident, and Its...c11173008 Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour

Need for denser geodetic network to get real constrain on the fault behavior along the Main Marmara Sea segments of the NAF, toward an optimized GPS network.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, E.; Masson, F.; Duputel, Z.; Yavasoglu, H.; Agram, P. S.

2016-12-01

Over the last two decades, the densification of GPS networks and the development of new radar satellites offered an unprecedented opportunity to study crustal deformation due to faulting. Yet, submarine strike slip fault segments remain a major issue, especially when the landscape appears unfavorable to the use of SAR measurements. It is the case of the North Anatolian fault segments located in the Main Marmara Sea, that remain unbroken ever since the Mw7.4 earthquake of Izmit in 1999, which ended a eastward migrating seismic sequence of Mw > 7 earthquakes. Located directly offshore Istanbul, evaluation of seismic hazard appears capital. But a strong controversy remains over whether these segments are accumulating strain and are likely to experience a major earthquake, or are creeping, resulting both from the simplicity of current geodetic models and the scarcity of geodetic data. We indeed show that 2D infinite fault models cannot account for the complexity of the Marmara fault segments. But current geodetic data in the western region of Istanbul are also insufficient to invert for the coupling using a 3D geometry of the fault. Therefore, we implement a global optimization procedure aiming at identifying the most favorable distribution of GPS stations to explore the strain accumulation. We present here the results of this procedure that allows to determine both the optimal number and location of the new stations. We show that a denser terrestrial survey network can indeed locally improve the resolution on the shallower part of the fault, even more efficiently with permanent stations. But data closer from the fault, only possible by submarine measurements, remain necessary to properly constrain the fault behavior and its potential along strike coupling variations.

Metal (Al, Fe, Mn and Cu) distributions and origins of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the surface sediments of the Marmara Sea and the coast of Istanbul, Turkey.

PubMed

Taşkın, Ö S; Aksu, A; Balkıs, N

2011-11-01

In this study, total metal (Al, Fe, Mn and Cu) and PAHs analyses have been done in the surface sediments. Sediment samples have been collected from seven parts of the Marmara Sea and the coast of Istanbul during 2009. Total Al, Fe, Mn and Cu contents vary between 1.8% and 5.4%; 1.1% and 2.8%; 122 and 259 μg g(-1); 27 and 416 μg g(-1), respectively. EF and CF values of Fe and Mn are lower than 1.5 and 1, respectively, in all the stations. Total PAH contents range between 135 and 6009 ng g(-1) in the surface sediments. The origin of PAHs has been found pyrolitic according to the Phe/Ant ratio in the all stations. Contrastingly, at K0, MKC and MY1 Stations, PAH origins have been observed petrogenic according to the Flu/Pyr ratio. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gas and seismicity within the Istanbul seismic gap.

PubMed

Géli, L; Henry, P; Grall, C; Tary, J-B; Lomax, A; Batsi, E; Riboulot, V; Cros, E; Gürbüz, C; Işık, S E; Sengör, A M C; Le Pichon, X; Ruffine, L; Dupré, S; Thomas, Y; Kalafat, D; Bayrakci, G; Coutellier, Q; Regnier, T; Westbrook, G; Saritas, H; Çifçi, G; Çağatay, M N; Özeren, M S; Görür, N; Tryon, M; Bohnhoff, M; Gasperini, L; Klingelhoefer, F; Scalabrin, C; Augustin, J-M; Embriaco, D; Marinaro, G; Frugoni, F; Monna, S; Etiope, G; Favali, P; Bécel, A

2018-05-01

Understanding micro-seismicity is a critical question for earthquake hazard assessment. Since the devastating earthquakes of Izmit and Duzce in 1999, the seismicity along the submerged section of North Anatolian Fault within the Sea of Marmara (comprising the "Istanbul seismic gap") has been extensively studied in order to infer its mechanical behaviour (creeping vs locked). So far, the seismicity has been interpreted only in terms of being tectonic-driven, although the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) is known to strike across multiple hydrocarbon gas sources. Here, we show that a large number of the aftershocks that followed the M 5.1 earthquake of July, 25 th 2011 in the western Sea of Marmara, occurred within a zone of gas overpressuring in the 1.5-5 km depth range, from where pressurized gas is expected to migrate along the MMF, up to the surface sediment layers. Hence, gas-related processes should also be considered for a complete interpretation of the micro-seismicity (~M < 3) within the Istanbul offshore domain.

Long term monitoring of the micro-seismicity along the Main Marmara Fault, Turkey using template matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matrullo, Emanuela; Lengliné, Olivier; Schmittbuhl, Jean; Karabulut, Hayrullah; Bouchon, Michel

2017-04-01

The Main Marmara Fault (MMF) represents a 150 km un-ruptured segment of the North Anatolian Fault located below the Marmara Sea. It poses a significant hazard for the large cities surrounding the region and in particular for the megalopolis of Istanbul. The seismic activity has been continuously monitored since 2007 by various seismic networks. For this purpose it represents an extraordinary natural laboratory to study in details the whole seismicity bringing insights into the geometry of the faults systems at depth and mechanical properties at various space-time scales. Waveform similarity-based analysis is performed on the continuous recordings to construct a refined catalog of earthquakes from 2009 to 2014. High-resolution relocation was applied using the double-difference algorithm, using cross-correlation differential travel-time data. Seismic moment magnitudes (Mw) have been computed combining the inversion of earthquake S-wave displacement spectra for the larger events and the estimation of the relative size of multiplets using the singular value decomposition (SVD) thanks the highly coherent waveforms. The obtained catalog of seismicity includes more than 15,000 events. The seismicity strongly varying along the strike and depth exhibits a complex structure that confirms the segmentation of the fault with different mechanical behavior (Schmittbuhl et al., GGG, 2016). In the central part of the Marmara Sea, seismicity is poor and scattered. To the east, in the Cinarcick basin, along the MMF, the seismicity is mainly located around 8-15 km in depth, except at both ends of this basin where the seismicity extends vertically up to surface. In the Yalova and Gemlik region (to the east not on the MMF) the seismicity is distributed over a wide range of depth (from surface to 15 km deep) and is characterized by several clusters vertically elongated. The spatio-temporal evolution of earthquake sequences, which repeatedly occur in specific sub-areas, and the seismic

Assessing Natural Hazard Vulnerability Through Marmara Region Using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabuncu, A.; Garagon Dogru, A.; Ozener, H.

2013-12-01

Natural hazards are natural phenomenon occured in the Earth's system that include geological and meteorological events such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, droughts, fires and tsunamis. The metropolitan cities are vulnerable to natural hazards due to their population densities, industrial facilities and proporties. The urban layout of the megacities are complex since industrial facilities are interference with residential area. The Marmara region is placed in North-western Turkey suffered from natural hazards (earthquakes, floods etc.) for years. After 1999 Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes and 2009 Istanbul flash floods, dramatic number of casualities and economic losses were reported by the authorities. Geographic information systems (GIS) have substantial capacity in order to develop natural disaster management. As these systems provide more efficient and reliable analysis and evaluation of the data in the management, and also convenient and better solutions for the decision making before during and after the natural hazards. The Earth science data and socio-economic data can be integrated into a GIS as different layers. Additionally, satellite data are used to understand the changes pre and post the natural hazards. GIS is a powerful software for the combination of different type of digital data. A natural hazard database for the Marmara region provides all different types of digital data to the users. All proper data collection processing and analysing are critical to evaluate and identify hazards. The natural hazard database allows users to monitor, analyze and query past and recent disasters in the Marmara Region. The long term aim of this study is to develop geodatabase and identify the natural hazard vulnerabilities of the metropolitan cities.

Freshwater lake to salt-water sea causing widespread hydrate dissociation in the Black Sea.

PubMed

Riboulot, Vincent; Ker, Stephan; Sultan, Nabil; Thomas, Yannick; Marsset, Bruno; Scalabrin, Carla; Ruffine, Livio; Boulart, Cédric; Ion, Gabriel

2018-01-09

Gas hydrates, a solid established by water and gas molecules, are widespread along the continental margins of the world. Their dynamics have mainly been regarded through the lens of temperature-pressure conditions. A fluctuation in one of these parameters may cause destabilization of gas hydrate-bearing sediments below the seafloor with implications in ocean acidification and eventually in global warming. Here we show throughout an example of the Black Sea, the world's most isolated sea, evidence that extensive gas hydrate dissociation may occur in the future due to recent salinity changes of the sea water. Recent and forthcoming salt diffusion within the sediment will destabilize gas hydrates by reducing the extension and thickness of their thermodynamic stability zone in a region covering at least 2800 square kilometers which focus seepages at the observed sites. We suspect this process to occur in other world regions (e.g., Caspian Sea, Sea of Marmara).

Sea Level Change due to Time-Dependent Long-Wavelength Dynamic Topography Inferred from Plate Tectonic Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conrad, Clinton P.; Steinberger, Bernhard; Torsvik, Trond H.

2017-04-01

Earth's surface is deflected vertically by stresses associated with convective mantle flow. Although dynamic topography is important for both sea level change and continental uplift and subsidence, the time history of dynamic topography is difficult to constrain because the time-dependence of mantle flow is not known. However, the motions of the tectonic plates contain information about the mantle flow patterns that drive them. In particular, we show that the longest wavelengths of mantle flow are tightly linked to the dipole and quadrupole moments (harmonic degrees 1 and 2) of plate motions. This coupling allows us to infer patterns of long-wavelength mantle flow, and the associated dynamic topography, from tectonic plate motions. After calibrating this linkage using models of present-day mantle flow, we can use reconstructions of global plate motions to infer the basic patterns of long-wavelength dynamic topography back to 250 Ma. We find relatively stable dynamic uplift persists above large-scale mantle upwelling beneath Africa and the Central Pacific. Regions of major downwelling encircled the periphery of these stable upwellings, alternating between primarily east-west and north-south orientations. The amplitude of long-wavelength dynamic topography was likely largest in the Cretaceous, when global plate motions were fastest. Continental motions over this time-evolving dynamic topography predict patterns of continental uplift and subsidence that are confirmed by geological observations of continental surfaces relative to sea level. Net uplift or subsidence of the global seafloor can also induce eustatic sea level changes. We infer that dispersal of the Pangean supercontinent away from stable upwelling beneath Africa may have exposed the seafloor to an increasingly larger area of growing positive dynamic topography during the Mesozoic. This net uplift of the seafloor caused 60 m of sea level rise during the Triassic and Jurassic, ceasing in the Cenozoic once

Temporal evolution of anthropogenic pollution and environmental changes in a marine inlet: the example of Gemlik Gulf, Marmara Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albut, Gülüm; Namık Cagatay, M.; Gungor, Nurdan; Gungor, Emin; Acar, Dursun; Balkıs, Nuray

2014-05-01

Marginal marine basins are particularly prone to anthropogenic pollution because of restricted water circulation and commonly high population density in their drainage basin. Gemlik Gulf is such a semi-enclosed inlet with maximum depth of 113 m in the eastern part of the Sea of Marmara, which is separated from the rest of the Marmara shelf by a -50 m deep sill. It is under anthropogenic risk from different industrial and municipal pollution sources in its drainage basin. Moreover, Gemlik Gulf, located on the middle branch of the North Anatolian fault (NAF), is under a future earthquake risk with a high possibility of pollution from disruption to industrial plants and municipal infrastucture, similar to the the one that occurred in the Ä°zmit Gulf during the 1999 Mw 7.4 Ä°zmit earthquake. In this study, we investigated the extent and temporal evolution of the heavy metal and organic pollution using a wide range of analyses of a 84 cm sediment/water interface long core from the central part of the basin, involving μ-XRF Core Scanner, Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS), Total Organic (TOC) and Inorganic Carbon (TIC), and mass spectrometric stable C and N isotopic and C and N elemental analyses. The chronology of the core was determined using radionuclide (210Pb and 137Cs) and AMS radiocarbon analysis. The core covers about last 800 years. The upper part of the core, representing the last 155 years, is gray mud grading into very dark grey mud in the top 84 cm. The 5-8 cm interval below sea floor (bsf) (AD 1985-1995) includes 3 white laminae consisting of coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi and another carbonate rich layer deposited during AD 1855-1950. TOC values are commonly between 1.5 and 2.5 % below 12.5 cmbsf (AD 1965), but increases up to 4.25 % towards the core top. The core includes a mass flow unit, which is most probably triggered by the AD 1855 earthquake, and is characterized by high contents of Fe, Zr, low contents of Ca, Nb, La U, Th

Groundwater temperature transients on the Armutlu peninsula, eastern Marmara region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woith, Heiko; Caka, Deniz; Seyis, Cemil; Italiano, Francesco; Celik, Cengiz; Wang, Rongjiang; Baris, Serif

2016-04-01

Since many years MAM and GFZ in co-operation with Kocaeli University (KU) operate fluid monitoring stations around the Sea of Marmara. In the frame of MARsite (MARsite has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308417) these networks were jointly evaluated for the first time. The on-land fluid monitoring networks continuously monitor the following parameters: soil radon (21 sites), temperature and conductivity of thermal springs (9 sites) operated by MAM covering the whole Marmara region; fluid pressure and water level/temperature (8 sites) within ARNET operated by GFZ/KU. ARNET is a combined seismological/hydrogeological monitoring network covering the Armutlu peninsula located SE of Istanbul. Additional to the geothermal wells and springs - our main target to detect transients of potentially seismo-tectonic origin - three shallow groundwater wells (tenth of meters deep) are being operated to identify and quantify seasonal variations, and meteorological influences like rainfall and snowmelt. But it turned out that these shallow aquifer systems showed very stable conditions with very small annual temperature amplitudes (0.2 - 0.3°C). One of these shallow monitoring wells is located just south of Lake Iznik (in the village of Sölöz) very close to the southern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. Water level showed a steady decreasing trend since June 2012. This trend resulted in a data gap starting in January 2014, when the water level dropped below the sensor position. After adjusting the sensor position, positive spikes in the borehole temperature were recorded in June and August 2014, and again in 2015. The spikes are characterised by a sharp temperature increase followed by a decay lasting several days until the pre-event temperature was reached again. Since the spikes occurred on two independent logger systems, and since they lasted several days, a

Methane-derived authigenic carbonates along the North Anatolian fault system in the Sea of Marmara (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crémière, Antoine; Pierre, Catherine; Blanc-Valleron, Marie-Madeleine; Zitter, Tiphaine; Çağatay, M. Namik; Henry, Pierre

2012-08-01

The Marnaut cruise (May-June 2007) investigated the submerged part of the North Anatolian fault system, an active tectonic area in the Sea of Marmara. Already known and new fluid venting sites along the fault system were visited by submersible diving. Cold seeps present a considerable diversity of geochemical background associated with occurrences of authigenic carbonate crusts outcropping at the seafloor. Buried carbonate concretions were also recovered by coring within the sediments of the Tekirdağ Basin and of the Western-High ridge that separates the Tekirdağ and Central Basins. Interestingly, numerous of these early diagenetic carbonates were found within the transitional sediments from lacustrine to marine environment deposited after the late glacial maximum. The authigenic carbonates are mainly composed of aragonite, Mg-calcite and minor amounts of dolomite, and are often associated with pyrite and barite. The carbon isotopic compositions of carbonates present a wide range of values from -50.6‰ to +14.2‰ V-PDB indicating different diagenetic settings and complex mixtures of dissolved inorganic carbon from different sources. The low δ13C values of the seafloor crusts and of most buried concretions indicate that the carbon source was a mixture of microbial and thermogenic methane and possibly other hydrocarbons that were oxidized by anaerobic microbial processes. The positive δ13C values of a few buried concretions from the Western-High ridge reflect the mineralization of heavy CO2, which is thought to represent the residual by-product of oil biodegradation in a subsurface petroleum reservoir that migrated up with brines. Most of the oxygen isotopic compositions of seafloor carbonates are close to the isotopic equilibrium with the present-day bottom water conditions but a few values as low as -1.9‰ V-PDB indicate precipitation from brackish waters. In buried carbonate concretions, δ18O values as high as +4.9‰ V-PDB reflect the contribution of

Late glacial to Holocene water level and climate changes in the Gulf of Gemlik, Sea of Marmara: evidence from multi-proxy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filikci, Betül; Eriş, Kürşad Kadir; Çağatay, Namık; Sabuncu, Asen; Polonia, Alina

2017-10-01

Multi-proxy analyses of new piston core M13-08 together with seismic data from the Gulf of Gemlik provide a detailed record of paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic changes with special emphasis on the timing of the connections between the Sea of Marmara (SoM) and the Gulf of Gemlik during the late Pleistocene to Holocene. The deposition of a subaqueous delta sourced from the Armutlu River to the north is attributed to the lowstand lake level at -60 m in the gulf prior to 13.5 cal ka BP. On the basis of the seismic data, it is argued that the higher lake level (-60 m) in the gulf compared to the SoM level (-85 m) attests to its disconnection from the SoM during the late glacial period. Ponto-Caspian assemblages in the lacustrine sedimentary unit covering the time period between 13.5 and 12 cal ka BP represent a relict that was introduced into the gulf by a Black Sea outflow during the marine isotope stage 3 interstadial. Contrary to the findings of previous studies, the data suggest that such an outflow into the Gulf of Gemlik during the late glacial period could have occurred only if the SoM lake level (-85 m) was shallower than the sill depth (-55 m) of the gulf in the west. A robust age model of the core indicates the connection of the gulf with the marine SoM at 12 cal ka BP, consistent with the sill depth (-55 m) of the gulf on the global sea level curve. Strong evidence of a marine incursion into the gulf is well documented by the μ-XRF Sr/Ca data. The available profiles of elemental ratios in core M13-08, together with the age-depth model, imply that a warm and wet climate prevailed in the gulf during the early Holocene (12-10.1 cal ka BP), whereas the longest drought occurred during the middle Holocene (8.2-5.4 cal ka BP). The base of the main Holocene sapropel in the gulf is dated at 10.1 cal ka BP, i.e., 500 years younger than its equivalent in the SoM. The late Holocene is earmarked by warm and wet climate periods (5.0-4.2 and 4.2-2.7 cal ka BP) with some

Tectonic imprints upon inferences of eustatic sea level history: the Pliocene warm period and the Orangeburg Scarp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandan, D.; Peltier, W. R.

2013-12-01

The issue of tectonic contamination of geological inferences of relative sea level history is an important one. The issue arises on timescales that range from the 21-26 kyrs that have passed since the Last Glacial Maximum, to the most recent time when periods as warm as the present are expected to have existed, such as the mid-Pliocene. The coral based record from Barbados, for example, is known to be contaminated by continuing tectonic uplift of the island at a rate of approximately 0.34 mm/yr. For the Pliocene warm period at ~3 Myr, records from geological sites, such as the Orangeburg Scarp in North Carolina, have played a prominent role in arguments underpinning the design of the ongoing international PlioMIP program. In connection with the latter site, Rowley et al (2013) have recently argued that this record is contaminated by a tectonic imprint sufficiently strong to suggest that the usual inferences of Pliocene eustatic sea level based upon it (eg. Miller et al, 2012) must be seen as highly suspect. Here we employ a tomographically constrained model of the mantle convection process to revisit the issue of the tectonic imprint on relative sea level at the Orangeburg site, as well as other similar locations. Our analysis is based upon the inferred time dependence of dynamic topography forced by the mantle's internal density heterogeneities delivered by the S20RTS seismic tomography model. We begin by comparing the static, present day dynamic topography predicted by the (linear) internal loading theory based on the formalism of Pari and Peltier (2000) with that predicted using using a full three dimensional version of the nonlinear time-dependent mantle convection model of Shahnas and Peltier (2010, 2011). We demonstrate first that these two methodologies produce extremely similar results for the static field. We then proceed to run the nonlinear convection model in data assimilation mode while continuously nudging the internal density field back towards the

Ecosystem Structure Changes in the Turkish Seas as a Response to Overfishing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gazihan Akoglu, Ayse; Salihoglu, Baris; Akoglu, Ekin; Kideys, Ahmet E.

2013-04-01

Human population in Turkey has grown more than five-fold since its establishment in 1923 and more than 73 million people are currently living in the country. Turkey is surrounded by partially connected seas (the Black Sea, the Sea of Marmara, the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea) each of which has significantly different productivity levels and ecosystem characteristics. Increasing human population with its growing socio-economic needs has generated an intensive fishing pressure on the fish stocks in its exclusive economic zone. Fishing grounds in the surrounding seas were exploited with different fishing intensities depending upon their productivity level and catch rates. Hence, the responses of these different ecosystems to overfishing have been realized differently. In this study, changes of the ecosystem structures in the Turkish Seas were comparatively investigated by ecosystem indices such as Marine Trophic Index (MTI), Fishing in Balance (FiB) and Primary Production Required (PPR) to assess the degree of sustainability of the fish stocks for future generations.

Undersea acoustic telemetry across the North Anatolian Fault, Marmara Sea: results from the first 6 months of monitoring of the fault displacement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royer, J. Y.; Deschamps, A.; Piete, H.; Sakic, P.; Ballu, V.; Apprioual, R.; Kopp, H.; Lange, D.; Ruffine, L.; Géli, L.

2015-12-01

Located in the Marmara Sea, the Istanbul-Silivri segment of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is known to be a seismic gap since 1766, although, in the last century, the NAF has caused major devastating earthquakes over most of its extent. This fault segment, void of seismicity, may be either creeping aseismically or blocked and accumulating enough strain to produce an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater. This section of the NAF may thus represent a major seismic and tsunamigenic hazard for the Istanbul megalopolis, located only 40 km away. The objective of the MARSITE project, funded by the European Union and coordinated by the Observatory of the University of Kandilli (KOERI), is to determine the blocking state of the Istanbul-Silivri fault segment. In this context, an array of 10 acoustic transponders has been deployed on either sides of the fault, in the eastern part of the Kumburgaz Basin, to measure the displacements of the fault over a period of 3 to 5 years. The telemetric beacons (4 from the University of Brest and 6 from the GEOMAR Institute in Kiel) form two arrays fitted in one another. The principle of the experiment is to repeatedly measure the distance (ie two-way-travel time of acoustic pings) between pairs of beacons and thus to monitor the deformation of an array of 9 baselines, 500m to 3000m long, of which 5 cross obliquely the assumed fault trace. The French and German arrays are independent but ensure a redundancy of rangings along common baselines. Each acoustic transponder also monitors the temperature, pressure, sound-velocity and attitude (tiltmeters), every one or two hours. Data are stored in each beacon and can be downloaded from the surface using an acoustic modem. We present here the first 6 months of recording by the French array, from November 1st, 2014 to April 25, 2015. All acoustic transponders worked nominally for 6 months and appear to have remained stable on the seafloor. Recorded sea-bottom temperatures provide evidence for

Integrated Multidisciplinary Fault Observation System in the western part of the main Marmara Fault in the frame of an EU-FP7 project, titled as MARSITE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozel, Oguz; Guralp, Cansun; Tunc, Suleyman; Yalcinkaya, Esref; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

2015-04-01

The main objective of this study is to install a multi-parameter borehole system and surface array consisting of eight broadband sensors as close to the main Marmara Fault (MMF) in the western Marmara Sea as possible, and measure continuously the evolution of the state of the fault zone surrounding the MMF and to detect any anomaly or change which may occur before earthquakes by making use of the data from these arrays. The multi-parameter borehole system is composed of very wide dynamic range and stable borehole (VBB) broad band seismic sensor, and incorporate 3-D strain meter, tilt meter, and temperature and local hydrostatic pressure measuring devices. All these sensors are installed in 146m-deep borehole. All the sensor outputs are digitized; total of 11*24 bit-channels and 6*20 bit-channels. Real-time data transmission to the main server of the Marsite Project at Kandilli Observatory in Istanbul is accomplished. The multi-parameter borehole seismic station uses the latest update technologies and design ideas to record "Earth tides" signals to the smallest magnitude -3 events, as the innovative part of the Marsite Project. Bringing face to face the seismograms of microearthquakes recorded by borehole and surface instruments portrays quite different contents. The shorter recording duration and nearly flat frequency spectrum up to the Nyquist frequencies of borehole records are faced with longer recording duration and rapid decay of spectral amplitudes at higher frequencies of a surface seismogram. The main causative of the observed differences are near surface geology effects that mask most of the source related information the seismograms include, and that give rise to scattering, generating longer duration seismograms. In view of these circumstances, studies on microearthquakes employing surface seismograms may bring on misleading results. Particularly, the works on earthquake physics and nucleation process of earthquakes requires elaborate analysis of tiny

Crew Earth Observations (CEO) taken during Expedition 8

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-04-16

ISS008-E-21752 (16 April 2004) --- This image featuring Istanbul, Turkey was photographed by an Expedition 8 crewmember on the International Space Station (ISS). This metropolis of 15 million occupies both sides of the entrance to the narrow, 20-mile long Bosporus Strait connecting the Mediterranean and Sea of Marmara (south) to the Black Sea (north). When this image was taken, strong currents carried turbid coastal waters from the Black Sea through the Strait and into the Sea of Marmara. The rugged uplands to the north of the city are forested and contain vital reservoirs. Note Ataturk airport southwest of the city near the bottom of the image, the picturesque Prince Islands in the Sea of Marmara, and the sinuous waterway and harbor on the western shore known as the Golden Horn.

Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing Derived from Sea WiFS-Inferred Aerosol Optical Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Ming-Dah; Chan, Pui-King; Wang, Menghua

1999-01-01

Aerosol optical properties inferred from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) radiance measurements are used to compute the aerosol shortwave radiative forcing using a radiative transfer model. The aerosol optical thickness at the wavelength of 865-nm is taken from the SeaWIFS archive. It is found that the nominal optical thickness over oceans ranges from 0.1 to 0.2. Using a maritime aerosol model and the radiances measured at the various SeaWiFS channels, the Angstrom exponent is determined to be 0.2174, the single-scattering albedo to be 0.995, and the asymmetry factor to be 0.786. The radiative transfer model has eight bands in the visible and ultraviolet spectral regions and three bands in the near infrared. It includes the absorption due to aerosols, water vapor, carbon dioxide, and oxygen, and the scattering due to aerosols and gases (Rayleigh scattering). The radiative forcing is computed over global oceans for four months (January, April, July, and October, 1998) to represent four seasons. It is found that the aerosol radiative forcing is large and changes significantly with seasons near the continents with large-scale forest fires and desert dust. Averaged over oceans and the four months, the aerosol radiative forcing is approximately 7 W/sq m at the top of the atmosphere. This large radiative forcing is expected to have a significant cooling effect on the Earth's climate as implied from simulations of a number of general circulation models.

Fault strength in Marmara region inferred from the geometry of the principle stress axes and fault orientations: A case study for the Prince's Islands fault segment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinar, Ali; Coskun, Zeynep; Mert, Aydin; Kalafat, Dogan

2015-04-01

The general consensus based on historical earthquake data point out that the last major moment release on the Prince's islands fault was in 1766 which in turn signals an increased seismic risk for Istanbul Metropolitan area considering the fact that most of the 20 mm/yr GPS derived slip rate for the region is accommodated mostly by that fault segment. The orientation of the Prince's islands fault segment overlaps with the NW-SE direction of the maximum principle stress axis derived from the focal mechanism solutions of the large and moderate sized earthquakes occurred in the Marmara region. As such, the NW-SE trending fault segment translates the motion between the two E-W trending branches of the North Anatolian fault zone; one extending from the Gulf of Izmit towards Çınarcık basin and the other extending between offshore Bakırköy and Silivri. The basic relation between the orientation of the maximum and minimum principal stress axes, the shear and normal stresses, and the orientation of a fault provides clue on the strength of a fault, i.e., its frictional coefficient. Here, the angle between the fault normal and maximum compressive stress axis is a key parameter where fault normal and fault parallel maximum compressive stress might be a necessary and sufficient condition for a creeping event. That relation also implies that when the trend of the sigma-1 axis is close to the strike of the fault the shear stress acting on the fault plane approaches zero. On the other hand, the ratio between the shear and normal stresses acting on a fault plane is proportional to the coefficient of frictional coefficient of the fault. Accordingly, the geometry between the Prince's islands fault segment and a maximum principal stress axis matches a weak fault model. In the frame of the presentation we analyze seismological data acquired in Marmara region and interpret the results in conjuction with the above mentioned weak fault model.

Preliminary Interpretations of Multi-Channel Seismic Reflection and Magnetic Data on North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in the Eastern Marmara Region, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gözde Okut Toksoy, Nigar; Kurt, Hülya; İşseven, Turgay

2017-04-01

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is 1600 km long, right lateral strike-slip fault nearly E-W elongated between Karlıova in the east and Saros Gulf in the west. NAF splays into two major strands near the west of Bolu city as Northern and Southern strands. Northern strand passes Sapanca Lake and extends towards west and reaches Marmara Sea through the Gulf of Izmit. The area has high seismicity; 1999 Kocaeli (Mw=7.4) and 1999 Düzce (Mw=7.2) earthquakes caused approximately 150 km long surface rupture between the Gulf of Izmit and Bolu. The rupture has four distinct fault segments as Gölcük, Sapanca, Sakarya, and Karadere from west to east. In this study multi-channel seismic and magnetic data are collected for the first time on the Sapanca Segment to investigate the surficial and deeper geometry of the NAF. Previously, the NAF in the eastern Marmara region is investigated using by paleo-seismological data from trenches on the surface rupture of fault or the geomorphological data (Lettis et al., 2000; Dikbaş and Akyüz, 2010) which have shallower depth targets. Crustal structure and seismic velocities for Central Anatolia and eastern Marmara regions are obtained from deeper targeted refraction data (Gürbüz et al., 1992). However, their velocity models do not have the spatial resolution to determine details of the fault zone structure. Multi-channel seismic and magnetic data in this study were acquired on two N-S directed profiles crossing NAF perpendicularly near Kartepe on the western part of the Sapanca Lake in October 2016. The receiver interval is 5 m, shot interval is 5-10 m, and the total length of the profiles are approximately 1400 m. Buffalo Gun is used as a seismic source for deeper penetration. Conventional seismic reflection processing steps are applied to the data. These are geometry definition, editing, filtering, static correction, velocity analysis and deconvolution, stacking and migration. Echos seismic software package in Geophysical Department

Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasnia, Mohsen; Toros, Hüseyin

2018-05-01

This study aimed to analyze extreme temperature and precipitation indices at seven stations in the Marmara Region of Turkey for the period 1961-2016. The trend of temperature indices showed that the warm-spell duration and the numbers of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights, and warm days have increased, while the cold-spell duration and number of ice days, cool nights, and cool days have decreased across the Marmara Region. Additionally, the diurnal temperature range has slightly increased at most of the stations. A majority of stations have shown significant warming trends for warm days and warm nights throughout the study area, whereas warm extremes and night-time based temperature indices have shown stronger trends compared to cold extremes and day-time indices. The analysis of precipitation indices has mostly shown increasing trends in consecutive dry days and increasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity for inland and urban stations, especially for stations in Sariyer and Edirne, which are affected by a fast rate of urbanization. Overall, a large proportion of study stations have experienced an increase in annual precipitation and heavy precipitation events, although there was a low percentage of results that was significant. Therefore, it is expected that the rainfall events will tend to become shorter and more intense, the occurrence of temperature extremes will become more pronounced in favor of hotter events, and there will be an increase in the atmospheric moisture content over the Marmara Region. This provides regional evidence for the importance of ongoing research on climate change.

Medical experience of a university hospital in Turkey after the 1999 Marmara earthquake

PubMed Central

Bulut, M; Fedakar, R; Akkose, S; Akgoz, S; Ozguc, H; Tokyay, R

2005-01-01

Objectives: This study aimed to provide an overview of morbidity and mortality among patients admitted to the Hospital of the Medicine Faculty of Uludag University, Bursa, Turkey, after the 1999 Marmara earthquake. Methods: Retrospective analysis of the medical records of 645 earthquake victims. Patients' demographic data, diagnosis, dispositions, and prognosis were reviewed. Results: A total of 330 patients with earthquake related injuries and illness admitted to our hospital were included and divided into three main groups: crush syndrome (n = 110), vital organ injuries (n = 57), and non-traumatic but earthquake related illness (n = 55). Seventy seven per cent of patients were hospitalised during the first three days after the earthquake. The rate of mortality associated with the crush syndrome, vital organ injury, and non-traumatic medical problems was 21% (23/110), 17.5% (10/57), and 9% (5/55), respectively. The overall mortality rate was 8% (50/645). Conclusions: In the first 24–48 hours after a major earthquake, hospital emergency departments are flooded with large numbers of patients. Among this patient load, those patients with crush syndrome or vital organ injuries are particularly at risk. Proper triage and prompt treatment of these seriously injured earthquake victims may decrease morbidity and mortality. It is hoped that this review of the challenges met after the Marmara earthquake and the lessons learned will be of use to emergency department physicians as well as hospital emergency planners in preparing for future natural disasters. PMID:15983085

Teaching of the subject "density difference caused by salinity", one of the reasons that plays role in the occurrence of currents in straits, seas and oceans by the use of a teaching material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gumussoy, Verim

2015-04-01

Large masses of moving water in seas and oceans are called currents. Root causes of currents are steady winds that occur due to the global atmospheric system and the density differences caused by different heat and salinity levels of water masses. Different feeding and evaporation characteristics of seas and oceans result in salinity and density levels. As a result, subsurface currents occur in straits where seas with different salinity and density levels meet and in the nearby seas. The Bosporus in Istanbul where I live and the school I am working at is has these subsurface currents. In the Black Sea where the rivers the Danube, Dnieper, Don, Yesilirmak, Kizilirmak and Sakarya flow into and the evaporation level is less due to the latitude effect, salinity level is less compared to Marmara and Aegean Seas. As Marmara Sea has higher salt amount than Black Sea, there is a great density difference between these two seas. Marmara Sea has a higher concentration of salt and therefore a higher density than Black Sea. And this leads to occurrence of subsurface currents in the Bosporus. I get my students to carry out a small demonstration to help them understand the occurrence of ocean currents and currents in the seas and the Bosporus by the use of a material. We need very simple materials to carry out this demonstration. These are an aquarium, a bowl, water, salt, dye and a mixer. The demonstration is carried out as follows: we put water, salt and dye in the bowl and mix it well. The salt will increase the density of the water and the dye will help distinguish the salty water. Then we put tap water half way to the aquarium and pour the mixture in the bowl to the aquarium slowly. As a result, the colored salty water sinks down due to its higher density, setting an example of a subsurface current. Natural events occur in very long periods by great dynamic systems, making understanding of them difficult. It is important to use different kinds of materials that address to

Sea water quality assessment of Prince Islands' beaches in Istanbul.

PubMed

Ilter Turkdogan Aydinol, F; Kanat, Gurdal; Bayhan, Hurrem

2012-01-01

In this study, seawater samples were subjected to microbiological and physicochemical analysis (water temperature, pH, Secchi disc depth and ammonia) in the Prince Islands which are located in Marmara Sea, being one of the most popular swimming areas in Istanbul. The monitoring program of the study has been carried out in the summer for 6 weeks at eight stations around the Prince Islands. Measured total coliform values were between 5 ± 2 and 26 ± 55 and faecal coliform values were between 4 ± 2 and 24 ± 50 in the monitoring stations. A statistical study has been conducted to find the relationship between total and faecal coliform concentrations, and t tests were applied. There was no significant difference in each location of the Islands, except one location. The results were evaluated by comparing with national and EU bathing water standards. Results of the study show that deep sea discharges and sea currents contribute dilution of coliform concentration in a positive way, and locations near coastal zones of the islands have acceptable values which are required by the regulations.

An Evaluation of Service Quality in Higher Education: Marmara and Nigde Omer Halisdemir Universities' Department of Education Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ada, Sefer; Baysal, Z. Nurdan; Erkan, Senem Seda Sahenk

2017-01-01

The purpose of this research is to evaluate the quality service in higher education in Marmara and Nigde Omer Halisdemir Universities' department of education students. This study was prepared using a screening model from quantitative research methods. The sample of this research comprised 886 university students attending the higher education…

Towards Integrated Marmara Strong Motion Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durukal, E.; Erdik, M.; Safak, E.; Ansal, A.; Ozel, O.; Alcik, H.; Mert, A.; Kafadar, N.; Korkmaz, A.; Kurtulus, A.

2009-04-01

Istanbul has a 65% chance of having a magnitude 7 or above earthquake within the next 30 years. As part of the preparations for the future earthquake, strong motion networks have been installed in and around Istanbul. The Marmara Strong Motion Network, operated by the Department of Earthquake Engineering of Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, encompasses permanent systems outlined below. It is envisaged that the networks will be run by a single entity responsible for technical management and maintanence, as well as for data management, archiving and dissemination through dedicated web-based interfaces. • Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System - IERREWS (one hundred 18-bit accelerometers for rapid response; ten 24-bit accelerometers for early warning) • IGDAŞ Gas Shutoff Network (100 accelerometers to be installed in 2010 and integrated with IERREWS) • Structural Monitoring Arrays - Fatih Sultan Mehmet Suspension Bridge (1200m-long suspension bridge across the Bosphorus, five 3-component accelerometers + GPS sensors) - Hagia Sophia Array (1500-year-old historical edifice, 9 accelerometers) - Süleymaniye Mosque Array (450-year-old historical edifice,9 accelerometers) - Fatih Mosque Array (237-year-old historical edifice, 9 accelerometers) - Kanyon Building Array (high-rise office building, 5 accelerometers) - Isbank Tower Array (high-rise office building, 5 accelerometers) - ENRON Array (power generation facility, 4 acelerometers) - Mihrimah Sultan Mosque Array (450-year-old historical edifice,9 accelerometers + tiltmeters, to be installed in 2009) - Sultanahmet Mosque Array, (390-year-old historical edifice, 9 accelerometers + tiltmeters, to be installed in 2009) • Special Arrays - Atakoy Vertical Array (four 3-component accelerometers at 25, 50, 75, and 150 m depths) - Marmara Tube Tunnel (1400 m long submerged tunnel, 128 ch. accelerometric data, 24 ch. strain data, to be installed in 2010) - Air-Force Academy

Genetic structuring of European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) populations through mitochondrial DNA sequences.

PubMed

Keskin, Emre; Atar, Hasan Huseyin

2012-04-01

Mitochondrial DNA sequence variation in 655 bpfragments of the cytochrome oxidase c subunit I gene, known as the DNA barcode, of European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) was evaluated by analyzing 1529 individuals representing 16 populations from the Black Sea, through the Marmara Sea and the Aegean Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. A total of 19 (2.9%) variable sites were found among individuals, and these defined 10 genetically diverged populations with an overall mean distance of 1.2%. The highest nucleotide divergence was found between samples of eastern Mediterranean and northern Aegean (2.2%). Evolutionary history analysis among 16 populations clustered the Mediterranean Sea clades in one main branch and the other clades in another branch. Diverging pattern of the European anchovy populations correlated with geographic dispersion supports the genetic structuring through the Black Sea-Marmara Sea-Aegean Sea-Mediterranean Sea quad.

Arctic Sea Ice: Using Airborne Topographic Mapper Measurements (ATM) to Determine Sea Ice Thickness

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-10

Track Distance (Km) E le v a ti o n ( m ) ATM Elevation Profile Elevation 18 Figure 13: Geoid shape of earth’s equipotential surface , which is...inferred for the region between successive leads. Therefore, flying over a lead in the ice is very important for determining the exact sea surface elevation...inferred for the region between successive leads. Therefore, flying over a lead in the ice is very important for determining the exact sea surface

Intermediate to deep water hydrographic changes of the Japan Sea over the past 10 Myr, inferred from radiolarian data (IODP Exp. 346, Site U1425)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsuzaki, Kenji M.; Itaki, Takuya; Tada, Ryuji; Kurokawa, Shunsuke

2017-04-01

.7 Ma. For older interval (2.7- 10 Ma), deep water species of the North Pacific could be identified at site U1425, inferring influences of deep water from the North Pacific and consequently a deeper sill depths of the connecting strait. Radiolarian assemblages also show that the intermediate water of the Japan sea is characterized by taxa living in equatorial to mid latitude area of the Northwest Pacific during the time interval between 2.7-10 Ma. While between 4 and 5 Ma, taxa related to the Sea of Okhotsk show very high abundances, inferring also inflow of intermediate water from the Sea of Okhotsk in the Japan Sea.

A Comparison of Full and Empirical Bayes Techniques for Inferring Sea Level Changes from Tide Gauge Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piecuch, C. G.; Huybers, P. J.; Tingley, M.

2016-12-01

Sea level observations from coastal tide gauges are some of the longest instrumental records of the ocean. However, these data can be noisy, biased, and gappy, featuring missing values, and reflecting land motion and local effects. Coping with these issues in a formal manner is a challenging task. Some studies use Bayesian approaches to estimate sea level from tide gauge records, making inference probabilistically. Such methods are typically empirically Bayesian in nature: model parameters are treated as known and assigned point values. But, in reality, parameters are not perfectly known. Empirical Bayes methods thus neglect a potentially important source of uncertainty, and so may overestimate the precision (i.e., underestimate the uncertainty) of sea level estimates. We consider whether empirical Bayes methods underestimate uncertainty in sea level from tide gauge data, comparing to a full Bayes method that treats parameters as unknowns to be solved for along with the sea level field. We develop a hierarchical algorithm that we apply to tide gauge data on the North American northeast coast over 1893-2015. The algorithm is run in full Bayes mode, solving for the sea level process and parameters, and in empirical mode, solving only for the process using fixed parameter values. Error bars on sea level from the empirical method are smaller than from the full Bayes method, and the relative discrepancies increase with time; the 95% credible interval on sea level values from the empirical Bayes method in 1910 and 2010 is 23% and 56% narrower, respectively, than from the full Bayes approach. To evaluate the representativeness of the credible intervals, empirical Bayes and full Bayes methods are applied to corrupted data of a known surrogate field. Using rank histograms to evaluate the solutions, we find that the full Bayes method produces generally reliable error bars, whereas the empirical Bayes method gives too-narrow error bars, such that the 90% credible interval

Total meltwater volume since the Last Glacial Maximum and viscosity structure of Earth's mantle inferred from relative sea level changes at Barbados and Bonaparte Gulf and GIA-induced J˙2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakada, Masao; Okuno, Jun'ichi; Yokoyama, Yusuke

2016-02-01

Inference of globally averaged eustatic sea level (ESL) rise since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) highly depends on the interpretation of relative sea level (RSL) observations at Barbados and Bonaparte Gulf, Australia, which are sensitive to the viscosity structure of Earth's mantle. Here we examine the RSL changes at the LGM for Barbados and Bonaparte Gulf ({{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bar}}} and {{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bon}}}), differential RSL for both sites (Δ {{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bar}},{{Bon}}}) and rate of change of degree-two harmonics of Earth's geopotential due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process (GIA-induced J˙2) to infer the ESL component and viscosity structure of Earth's mantle. Differential RSL, Δ {{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bar}},{{Bon}}} and GIA-induced J˙2 are dominantly sensitive to the lower-mantle viscosity, and nearly insensitive to the upper-mantle rheological structure and GIA ice models with an ESL component of about (120-130) m. The comparison between the predicted and observationally derived Δ {{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bar}},{{Bon}}} indicates the lower-mantle viscosity higher than ˜2 × 1022 Pa s, and the observationally derived GIA-induced J˙2 of -(6.0-6.5) × 10-11 yr-1 indicates two permissible solutions for the lower mantle, ˜1022 and (5-10) × 1022 Pa s. That is, the effective lower-mantle viscosity inferred from these two observational constraints is (5-10) × 1022 Pa s. The LGM RSL changes at both sites, {{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bar}}} and {{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bon}}}, are also sensitive to the ESL component and upper-mantle viscosity as well as the lower-mantle viscosity. The permissible upper-mantle viscosity increases with decreasing ESL component due to the sensitivity of the LGM sea level at Bonaparte Gulf ({{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bon}}}) to the upper-mantle viscosity, and inferred upper-mantle viscosity for adopted lithospheric thicknesses of 65 and 100 km is (1-3) × 1020 Pa s for ESL˜130 m and (4-10) × 1020 Pa s for ESL˜125 m. The former solution of (1-3) × 1020

Geochemical and isotopic features of geothermal fluids around the Sea of Marmara, NW Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Italiano, Francesco; Woith, Heiko; Seyis, Cemil; Pizzino, Luca; Sciarra, Alessandra

2016-04-01

Earthquake processes provoke modifications of the crust affecting the fluid regime with changes in water level in wells, in temperature and/or chemical composition of groundwaters, in the flow-rate of gas discharges and in their chemical and isotopic composition. In the frame of MARsite (MARsite has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308417) the relationship between fluids and seismogenesis has been approached collecting geochemical data of local significance and evaluating them in geochemical interpretative models of fluids circulation and interactions as well as defining their behaviour over a seismic-prone area. During three fluid sampling campaigns in 2013, 2014, and 2015 a suite of 120 gas samples were collected from 72 thermal and mineral water springs/wells in the wider Marmara region along the Northern and Southern branches of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). Bubbling gases were collected if available, in all other cases the gas phase was extracted from water samples collected on that purpose. Gas samples were analyzed for the main chemical composition as well as their isotopic composition (He and C). The results highlight that the vented gases are a binary mixture of two end-members having nitrogen and carbon dioxide as main components. The geochemical features of the gas phase are the result of several processes that have modified their pristine composition. Atmospheric and deep-originated volatiles mix at variable extents and interact with cold and hot groundwaters. CO2 is normally the main gas species. But it's concentration may decrease due to gas-water interactions (GWI) increasing the relative concentration of N2 and other less soluble gases. A high CO2 content indicates minor interactions. Thus, the easier and faster the pathways are from the deep layers toward the Earth's surface, the lower are the interactions. The volatiles keep

Measuring the sea: the first oceanographic cruise (1679-1680) and the roots of oceanography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinardi, Nadia; Özsoy, Emin; Latif, Mohammed Abdul; Moroni, Franca; Grandi, Alessandro; Manzella, Giuseppe; De Strobel, Federico; Lyubartsev, Vladyslav

2017-04-01

The first quantitative measurements of seawater properties were carried out by Count Luigi Ferdinando Marsili in a cruise between 1679 and 1680 in the Aegean Sea, Marmara Sea and the Bosphorus Strait. The data reported in the historical oceanographic treatise "Osservazioni intorno al Bosforo Tracio" (Marsili, 1681) allowed us to reconstruct the seawater density at different geographic locations in 1679-1680. The Marsili experimental methodology included the collection of surface and deep water samples from the ship, the analysis of the samples with a hydrostatic ampoule and the choice of a reference water to standardize the measurements. Reconstructed densities comparison with present day values show agreement within a 10-20% uncertainty owing to some aspects of the measurement methodology which are difficult to reconstruct from the documentary evidence. The experimental data collected in the Bosphorus allowed Marsili to enunciate a theory on the cause of the two-layer flow at the Strait, thereafter confirmed by many laboratory and numerical studies.

Quantification of Shipping Emissions in the Eastern Mediterranean and Comparison with Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilic, A.; Unal, A.; Kindap, T.; Karaca, M.; Khan, M. N.

2010-12-01

Shipping is considered as one of the main emission sources worldwide. Recent studies suggest that, in the Mediterrenean, ship emissions are responsible for 10-50% of black carbon, 2-12% ozone in the surface layer and 5-20% for nitrogen dioxide atmospheric column burden (Marmer et al., 2009). It is, therefore, essential to have an accurate emissions estimation for ships. Marmara Sea, an inland sea connecting the Mediterrenean to the Black Sea, has significant marine activity. Marmara region, surrounding the Marmara Sea, has over 30 million population (including Istanbul megacity) with significant emission sources (e.g., on-road traffic, industry). Emission amounts from ships can be calculated based on two different methodologies, one is according to the total amount of bunker fuels for maritime transport sold which is called top down approach and the other is shipping activity-based bottom-up approach. The top-down estimation method is not suitable for calculations of shipping emissions in Turkey since fuel sales cannot be accurately obtained. Also, top-down approaches possibly have some errors, since data assumptions for the average engine power, engine operating hours and emission factors are the most important uncertain inputs. Previously, a few studies based on bottom-up aproach have been carried on about shipping emissions in Marmara Sea according to the shipping statistics belong to Istanbul and Canakkale Straits and port regions. These studies were mainly depending on very rough assumptions such as avearage ship speed, fixed ships routes, generalized engine types and average fuel consumptions. Deniz C. (2008) estimated shipping emissions in 2003, for Marmara Sea and Turkish Straits as 111,000 tons for NOx, 87,000 tons for SO2, 5,451,000 tons for CO2, 4762 tons for PM. Although- between 2003 and 2008- there is approximately 15% increase in number of ships passsing through Turkish Straits, this study shows that, shippings emissions for the same region are

Tsunami Loss Assessment For Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancilar, Ufuk; Cakti, Eser; Zulfikar, Can; Demircioglu, Mine; Erdik, Mustafa

2010-05-01

Tsunami risk and loss assessment incorporating with the inundation mapping in Istanbul and the Marmara Sea region are presented in this study. The city of Istanbul is under the threat of earthquakes expected to originate from the Main Marmara branch of North Anatolian Fault System. In the Marmara region the earthquake hazard reached very high levels with 2% annual probability of occurrence of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the Main Marmara Fault. Istanbul is the biggest city of Marmara region as well as of Turkey with its almost 12 million inhabitants. It is home to 40% of the industrial facilities in Turkey and operates as the financial and trade hub of the country. Past earthquakes have evidenced that the structural reliability of residential and industrial buildings, as well as that of lifelines including port and harbor structures in the country is questionable. These facts make the management of earthquake risks imperative for the reduction of physical and socio-economic losses. The level of expected tsunami hazard in Istanbul is low as compared to earthquake hazard. Yet the assets at risk along the shores of the city make a thorough assessment of tsunami risk imperative. Important residential and industrial centres exist along the shores of the Marmara Sea. Particularly along the northern and eastern shores we see an uninterrupted settlement pattern with industries, businesses, commercial centres and ports and harbours in between. Following the inundation maps resulting from deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard analyses, vulnerability and risk analyses are presented and the socio-economic losses are estimated. This study is part of EU-supported FP6 project ‘TRANSFER'.

Cesium-137 concentrations in marine macroalgae from different biotopes in the Aegean Sea (Greece).

PubMed

Sawidis, Thomas; Heinrich, Gerorg; Brown, Murray-T

2003-03-01

The commonest species of red, brown, and green macroalgae were sampled from a range of biotopes in the Aegean Sea during 1998 for their 137Cs content. Significant differences in 137Cs concentrations were found among different species growing under similar environmental conditions, suggesting that uptake does not follow physical levels but is influenced by allometric parameters and physiological mechanisms. 137Cs content in collected seaweeds were in the descending order: Ulva lactuca>Enteromorpha linza>Gracilaria verrucosa>Ceramium rubrum>Cystoseira barbata. A comparison of the stations studied indicated that the degree of accumulation is also dependent on the geomorphology of the specific area. The west side of Thermaikos Gulf, where the rivers Axios, Aliakmon, and Pinios flow, was highly contaminated as was the Strymonicos Gulf where the river Strymon flows. High cesium concentrations were also observed in algae from Lemnos Island near the mouth of the Dardanelles Channel, most likely due to the horizontal circulation of water masses from the Marmaras Sea to the Aegean Sea resulting in the discharge of 137Cs during the purification process in the Black Sea through the Dardanelles Straits. It is concluded that the general dispersion of 137Cs results from the water circulation regime within the Aegean Sea. Higher levels are present in the northern part of the basin due to current circulation originating from the Black Sea and from outflow of rivers. Levels decrease to the south and east, but increase again to the west of Crete where the Black Sea water mass can be periodically traced.

Revisiting the 1912 Murefet, Turkey earthquake and tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baptista, M.; Aksoy, M. M.; Ferreira, H.; Ucarkus, G.; Meghraoui, M.; Çakir, Z.

2012-12-01

The 9 August 1912 Mürefte Earthquake M 7.4 is one of the largest destructive earthquakes of the 20th century, in the Balkan region. The tremor struck at 03:30 a.m. and was felt in a wide region including Greece and Bulgaria. The damage was localized in the western part of the Sea of Marmara, between Tekirdag and Çanakkale with maximum intenstiy IX-X MSK near the Mürefte village. The damage killed 2800 and injured 7000 people. It totally destroyed 12600 houses, damaged 12100 beyond repair and caused serious damage to another 15,400. The earthquake occurred on the westernmost segment of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), limited by the Marmara Sea and the Aegean Sea on both ends. The event was accompanied with major surface faulting and co-seismic slip all along the on land and offshore sections. Up to date several faulting scenarios were proposed for this event claiming surface ruptures ranging from 50- 150 km. The tsunami reports of this event are scarce Contemporary accounts reported several onshore and offshore natural events that can be related to a tsunami caused by submarine surface faulting. Receding of the sea and inundations were observed along the northern shores of the Sea of Marmara. Besides, most of the coastal area of the Strait of the Dardanelles (Çanakkale) experienced flooding. Strong sea waves hit the northern coasts of Hayirsiz Ada and at Yesilköy (near Istanbul) a rowing-boat has been lifted up to a height of 2.7 m. In this study we present a summary of the tsunami observations and perform tsunami numerical simulations using a nonlinear shallow water code (NSLW7) that uses an explicit leap-frog finite difference scheme to solve the non-linear shallow water equations and high resolution DEM (Digital Earth Model) including bathymetry and topography in order to compute inundation. The initial condition of the tsunami propagation model is the static vertical displacement of the ocean floor due to the submarine earthquake that is computed Mansinha

Regional Climate Modeling over the Marmara Region, Turkey, with Improved Land Cover Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sertel, E.; Robock, A.

2007-12-01

Land surface controls the partitioning of available energy at the surface between sensible and latent heat,and controls partitioning of available water between evaporation and runoff. Current land cover data available within the regional climate models such as Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) was obtained from 1- km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite images spanning April 1992 through March 1993 with an unsupervised classification technique. These data are not up-to-date and are not accurate for all regions and some land cover types such as urban areas. Here we introduce new, up-to-date and accurate land cover data for the Marmara Region, Turkey derived from Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper images into the WRF regional climate model. We used several image processing techniques to create accurate land cover data from Landsat images obtained between 2001 and 2005. First, all images were atmospherically and radiometrically corrected to minimize contamination effects of atmospheric particles and systematic errors. Then, geometric correction was performed for each image to eliminate geometric distortions and define images in a common coordinate system. Finally, unsupervised and supervised classification techniques were utilized to form the most accurate land cover data yet for the study area. Accuracy assessments of the classifications were performed using error matrix and kappa statistics to find the best classification results. Maximum likelihood classification method gave the most accurate results over the study area. We compared the new land cover data with the default WRF land cover data. WRF land cover data cannot represent urban areas in the cities of Istanbul, Izmit, and Bursa. As an example, both original satellite images and new land cover data showed the expansion of urban areas into the Istanbul metropolitan area, but in the WRF

Evolution of the plankton paleome in the Black Sea from the Deglacial to Anthropocene

PubMed Central

Coolen, Marco J. L.; Orsi, William D.; Balkema, Cherel; Quince, Christopher; Harris, Keith; Sylva, Sean P.; Filipova-Marinova, Mariana; Giosan, Liviu

2013-01-01

The complex interplay of climate shifts over Eurasia and global sea level changes modulates freshwater and saltwater inputs to the Black Sea. The dynamics of the hydrologic changes from the Late Glacial into the Holocene remain a matter of debate, and information on how these changes affected the ecology of the Black Sea is sparse. Here we used Roche 454 next-generation pyrosequencing of sedimentary 18S rRNA genes to reconstruct the plankton community structure in the Black Sea over the last ca. 11,400 y. We found that 150 of 2,710 species showed a statistically significant response to four environmental stages. Freshwater chlorophytes were the best indicator species for lacustrine conditions (>9.0 ka B.P.), although the copresence of previously unidentified marine taxa indicated that the Black Sea might have been influenced to some extent by the Marmara Sea since at least 9.6 ka calendar (cal) B.P. Dinoflagellates, cercozoa, eustigmatophytes, and haptophytes responded most dramatically to the gradual increase in salinity after the latest marine reconnection and during the warm and moist mid-Holocene climatic optimum. According to paired analysis of deuterium/hydrogen (D/H) isotope ratios in fossil alkenones, salinity increased rapidly with the onset of the dry Subboreal after ∼5.2 ka B.P., leading to an increase in marine fungi and the first occurrence of marine copepods. A gradual succession of dinoflagellates, diatoms, and chrysophytes occurred during the refreshening after ∼2.5 ka cal B.P. with the onset of the cool and wet Subatlantic climate and recent anthropogenic perturbations. PMID:23650351

Seismic anisotropy along the Cyprean arc and northeast Mediterranean Sea inferred from shear wave splitting analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda

2014-08-01

The Cyprean arc is considered to be a convergent boundary in the Eastern Mediterranean where the African plate is being subducted beneath the Anatolian plate. Mapping the lateral variations of seismic anisotropy parameters can provide essential hints to mantle dynamics and flow patterns in relation to the geometry and style of deformation developed under different pressure, temperature conditions around the subducting African lithosphere. In this study, seismic anisotropy parameters, fast polarization directions (ϕ) and delay times (δt) beneath the Cyprean arc and NE Mediterranean Sea are inferred from the shear wave splitting analysis performed on core-mantle refracted teleseismic shear waves (SKS phases). Earthquake data used in the present work are extracted from the continuous recordings of 8 broad-band seismic stations located in the study region for a time period during 1999 and 2012. The overall results exhibits clear evidences of mantle anisotropy with relatively uniform NE-SW aligned fast polarization directions. No abrupt changes in fast polarization directions (ϕ) are observed. However, near the Dead Sea Transform Fault, ϕ values tend to rotate from NE-SW to N-S and NW-SE in accordance with Pn anisotropy observations. Delay times (δt) vary between 0.61 s ± 0.10 s and 1.90 s ± 0.13 s. The range of delay times are generally consistent with those observed in the mantle rather than implying a crustal anisotropy. A predominant pattern of NNE-SSW fast polarization directions that is coherent with earlier SKS splitting measurements observed beneath north, central and East Anatolia suggests a SW directed asthenospheric flow caused by slab rollback process along the Hellenic and Cyprean arcs. Furthermore, apparent splitting parameters did not exhibit any significant directional dependence which may imply possibility of the presence of anisotropic models with two-layer anisotropy or dipping axis of symmetry beneath the northeast Mediterranean Sea and

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This paper reports on damaged sections of Botas' dual 30-in. gas line carrying USSR gas across the Marmara Sea to Turkey that were replaced 30 days ahead of contract schedule. Tefken Construction and Installation Co., Inc., Istanbul, working under a $4-million contract, replaced two sections on one of the dual lines near Ambarli, Turkey, within a two-month period. The offshore system stretches 33-mi under the Marmara Sea with some pipe laid at 262-ft maximum water depths. The scope of the project was to replace a 426-ft offshore approach to the northern shoreline and a 984-ft onshore section, which were damagedmore » by a submarine landslide.« less

Results of a multidisciplinary study in the Marmara Supersite, on-shore area: Büyükçekmece landslide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coccia, Stella; Bigarré, Pascal; Ergintav, Semih; Ozel, Oguz; Yalcinkaya, Esref; Ozalabey, Serdar; Bourdeau, Céline; Martino, Salvatore; Lenti, Luca; Zucca, Francesco; Moro, Marco

2016-04-01

The MARsite project (Nov 2012-Avril 2016), one of the three SUPERSITE concept FP7 projects, deals with the definition of new directions in seismic hazard assessment through focused earth observation in the Marmara Supersite. This project gathers different research groups in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed in the Sea of Marmara Region. This region is one of the most densely populated parts of Europe and rated at high seismic risk level since the 1999 Izmit and Duzce devastating earthquakes. The 6th Work Package of MARsite project offered a very valuable frame to undertake simultaneous and complementary scientific investigations and studies to get deeper insight in the seismic and rainfall landslide topic, ranging from methodology to hazard assessment tool. This package focused on two sub-regional areas of high interest. First, the Avcilar-Beylikdüzü peninsula, located westwards of Istanbul, is a highly urbanized concentrated landslide prone area, showing high susceptibility to both rainfalls while affected by very significant seismic site effects. Second, the off-shore entrance of the Izmit Gulf, close to the termination of the surface rupture of the 1999 earthquake, that shows an important slump mass facing the Istanbul coastline. For the on-shore area, after refining the landslide inventory of the peninsula, one of the nine inventoried rototranslational landslides was chosen as pilot site, the Büyükçekmece landslide. This landslide has a continuous activity and a composite mechanism (including several secondary sliding surfaces); it moves at low velocity and involves sandy and clayey deposits of a local Cenozoic Succession damaging several infrastructures, such as buildings and roads. Various geophysical campaigns were carried out and then a field temporary multi-parameter monitoring was set up, composed of GPS-RTK, two seismic probes, thermometer, rain-gauge, moisture, etc.. Hyperspectral and Dinsar imagery technologies were also deployed to

Sea level change since 2005: importance of salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llovel, W.; Purkey, S.; Meyssignac, B.; Kolodziejczyk, N.; Blazquez, A.; Bamber, J. L.

2017-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the most important consequences of the actual global warming. Global mean sea level has been rising at a faster rate since 1993 (over the satellite altimetry era) than previous decades. This rise is expected to accelerate over the coming decades and century. At global scale, sea level rise is caused by a combination of freshwater increase from land ice melting and land water changes (mass component) and ocean warming (thermal expansion). Estimating the causes is of great interest not only to understand the past sea level changes but also to validate projections based on climate models. In this study, we investigate the global mass contribution to recent sea level changes with an alternative approach by estimating the global ocean freshening. For that purpose, we consider the unprecedented amount of salinity measurements from Argo floats for the past decade (2005-2015). We compare our results to the ocean mass inferred by GRACE data and based on a sea level budget approach. Our results bring new constrains on the global water cycle (ocean freshening) and energy budget (ocean warming) as well as on the global ocean mass directly inferred from GRACE data.

Tectonic evolution of the Salton Sea inferred from seismic reflection data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brothers, D.S.; Driscoll, N.W.; Kent, G.M.; Harding, A.J.; Babcock, J.M.; Baskin, R.L.

2009-01-01

Oblique extension across strike-slip faults causes subsidence and leads to the formation of pull-apart basins such as the Salton Sea in southern California. The formation of these basins has generally been studied using laboratory experiments or numerical models. Here we combine seismic reflection data and geological observations from the Salton Sea to understand the evolution of this nascent pull-apart basin. Our data reveal the presence of a northeast-trending hinge zone that separates the sea into northern and southern sub-basins. Differential subsidence (10 mm yr 1) in the southern sub-basin suggests the existence of northwest-dipping basin-bounding faults near the southern shoreline, which may control the spatial distribution of young volcanism. Rotated and truncated strata north of the hinge zone suggest that the onset of extension associated with this pull-apart basin began after 0.5 million years ago. We suggest that slip is partitioned spatially and temporally into vertical and horizontal domains in the Salton Sea. In contrast to previous models based on historical seismicity patterns, the rapid subsidence and fault architecture that we document in the southern part of the sea are consistent with experimental models for pull-apart basins. ?? 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited.

Eastern Ross Ice Sheet Deglacial History inferred from the Roosevelt Island Ice Core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fudge, T. J.; Buizert, C.; Lee, J.; Waddington, E. D.; Bertler, N. A. N.; Conway, H.; Brook, E.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2017-12-01

The Ross Ice Sheet drains large portions of both West and East Antarctica. Understanding the retreat of the Ross Ice Sheet following the Last Glacial Maximum is particularly difficult in the eastern Ross area where there is no exposed rock and the Ross Ice Shelf prevents extensive bathymetric mapping. Coastal domes, by preserving old ice, can be used to infer the establishment of grounded ice and be used to infer past ice thickness. Here we focus on Roosevelt Island, in the eastern Ross Sea, where the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution project recently completed an ice core to bedrock. Using ice-flow modeling constrained by the depth-age relationship and an independent estimate of accumulation rate from firn-densification measurements and modeling, we infer ice thickness histories for the LGM (20ka) to present. Preliminary results indicate thinning of 300m between 15ka and 12ka is required. This is similar to the amount and timing of thinning inferred at Siple Dome, in the central Ross Sea (Waddington et al., 2005; Price et al., 2007) and supports the presence of active ice streams throughout the Ross Ice Sheet advance during the LGM.

Water storage in marine sediment and implications for inferences of past global ice volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrier, K.; Li, Q.; Pico, T.; Austermann, J.

2017-12-01

Changes in past sea level are of wide interest because they provide information on the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change, and thus inform predictions of future sea-level change. Sea level changes are influenced by many processes, including the storage of water in sedimentary pore space. Here we use a recent extension of gravitationally self-consistent sea-level models to explore the effects of marine sedimentary water storage on the global seawater balance and inferences of past global ice volume. Our analysis suggests that sedimentary water storage can be a significant component of the global seawater budget over the 105-year timescales associated with glacial-interglacial cycles, and an even larger component over longer timescales. Estimates of global sediment fluxes to the oceans suggest that neglecting marine sedimentary water storage may produce meter-scale errors in estimates of peak global mean sea level equivalent (GMSL) during the Last Interglacial (LIG). These calculations show that marine sedimentary water storage can be a significant contributor to the overall effects of sediment redistribution on sea-level change, and that neglecting sedimentary water storage can lead to substantial errors in inferences of global ice volume at past interglacials. This highlights the importance of accounting for the influences of sediment fluxes and sedimentary water storage on sea-level change over glacial-interglacial timescales.

Constraining coastal change: A morpho-sedimentological concept to infer sea-level oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauz, Barbara; Shen, Zhixiong

2016-04-01

One of the responders to Milankovitch-scale climate changes is sea level which, in turn, is a driver of coastal change. In literature, the sedimentary sequences representing the coastal change are often linked to high sea-level stands, to intermediate sea-level positions or to regressive shorelines. We note apparent contradictions that indicate a lack of concept and inconsistent usage of sea level-related terms. To overcome this, we combine an integrated morpho-sedimentological concept for microtidal, mid-latitudinal coasts with chronologies based on Bayesian statistics. The concept regards the coastal sedimentary system as a depositional complex consisting of shallow-marine, aeolian and alluvial facies. These facies are in juxtaposition and respond simultaneously to external forcing. Bayesian statistics constrains the timing of the sequence based on optical or radiocarbon ages. Here, we present the site Hergla located on the North African coast of the central Mediterranean Sea as a case study to illustrate how the approach helps eliminating contradictions. The site has been cited frequently for confirming the hypothesis of a global two peak sea-level highstand during the last interglacial (MIS 5e). The ~2 km cliff exposure at Hergla was surveyed, mapped, logged and sampled for further describing the sediments and their depositional environment through thin section and Bayesian modelling of optical ages. Using our concept based on sequence stratigraphy tools, the section is interpreted as representing a coastal barrier with two bounding surfaces in the succession. Both surfaces mark the falling sea level of, first, MIS 5e and, second, MIS 5a and hence bound the falling stage system tract of a forced regression. Part of the deposits between the two surfaces are pulled up onto the shoulder of a small rising horst and the associated tectonic event coincided with the MIS 5a sea-level rise enhancing locally the accommodation space for a second foreshore environment. Our

Seismarmara experiment: results from reprocessing of selected multi-channel seismic reflection profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cetin, S.; Voogd, B.; Carton, H.; Laigle, M.; Becel, A.; Saatcilar, R.; Singh, S.; Hirn, A.

2003-04-01

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) has been responsible for the earthquakes of Izmit and Duzce in 1999. The occurrence of these earthquakes has drawn scientific attention into the Sea of Marmara since the NAF enters into the Sea of Marmara where the latest Izmit earthquake rupture stopped. The SEISMARMARA-2001 survey is a combined seismic reflection, refraction and earthquake experiment carried out in 2001 in the Marmara Region in Turkey by French-Turkish scientific cooperation. The objectives of this survey were to image the various branches of the NAF and related other fault systems. R/V Le Nadir was equipped with a 4.5 km long streamer with 360 channels and a large airgun source. During Leg 1, a grid of large regional lines encompassing the whole Marmara trough was shot. For part of them a strong 8100 cu.in. source for deepest penetration was used, with a 150 m shot interval giving a 15-fold coverage. Another part was shot for a higher resolution with a 2900 cu. in. array at a 50m or 38 m interval to give a 45 or 60-fold coverage. The latter acquisition parameters were used for Leg 2 that was devoted to a very dense grid of lines in the Cinarcik Basin Reprocessing of the multi-channel seismic data is currently being undertaken in several Institutions using different seismic processing softwares (GeoVecteur, ProMAX, Focus), to take advantage of the diverse acquisitions and cope with their limitations, for instance high fold-order for Leg 2 and strength of signal but loose spatial sampling for the bigger source. The main objectives of the reprocessing of the selected profiles are to do a detailed velocity analysis and stacking after deconvolution, filtering to remove or suppress deep sea bottom multiples and out of plane reflections, and time-migration and depth conversion and thus reveal both the shallow and deeper reflection image of the crust in the Sea of Marmara. We show that choosing an appropriate processing sequence for different sources and acquisition

Central Asian sand seas climate change as inferred from OSL dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maman, Shimrit; Tsoar, Haim; Blumberg, Dan; Porat, Naomi

2014-05-01

Luminescence dating techniques have become more accessible, widespread, more accurate and support studies of climate change. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) is used to determine the time elapsed since quartz grains were last exposed to sunlight, before they were buried and the dune stabilized. Many sand seas have been dated extensively by luminescence, e.g., the Kalahari, Namib the Australian linear dunes and the northwestern Negev dune field, Israel. However, no ages were published so far from the central Asian sand seas. The lack of dune stratigraphy and numerical ages precluded any reliable assessment of the paleoclimatic significance of dunes in central Asia. Central Asian Sand seas (ergs) have accumulated in the Turan basin, north-west of the Hindu Kush range, and span from south Turkmenistan to the Syr-Darya River in Kazakhstan. These ergs are dissected by the Amu-Darya River; to its north lies the Kyzylkum (red sands) and to its south lies the Karakum (black sands). Combined, they form one of the largest sand seas in the world. This area is understudied, and little information has been published regarding the sands stabilization processes and deposition ages. In this study, OSL ages for the Karakum and Kyzylkum sands are presented and analysis of the implications of these results is provided. Optical dates obtained in this study are used to study the effects climatic changes had on the mobility and stability of the central Asian sand seas. Optically stimulated luminescence ages derived from the upper meter of the interdune of 14 exposed sections from both ergs, indicate extensive sand and dune stabilization during the mid-Holocene. This stabilization is understood to reflect a transition to a warmer, wetter, and less windy climate that generally persisted until today. The OSL ages, coupled with a compilation of regional paleoclimatic data, corroborate and reinforce the previously proposed Mid-Holocene Liavliakan phase, known to reflect a warmer

Transient sensitivities of sea ice export through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago inferred from a coupled ocean/sea-ice adjoint model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimbach, P.; Losch, M.; Menemenlis, D.; Campin, J.; Hill, C.

2008-12-01

The sensitivity of sea-ice export through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), measured in terms of its solid freshwater export through Lancaster Sound, to changes in various elements of the ocean and sea-ice state, and to elements of the atmospheric forcing fields through time and space is assessed by means of a coupled ocean/sea-ice adjoint model. The adjoint model furnishes full spatial sensitivity maps (also known as Lagrange multipliers) of the export metric to a variety of model variables at any chosen point in time, providing the unique capability to quantify major drivers of sea-ice export variability. The underlying model is the MIT ocean general circulation model (MITgcm), which is coupled to a Hibler-type dynamic/thermodynamic sea-ice model. The configuration is based on the Arctic face of the ECCO3 high-resolution cubed-sphere model, but coarsened to 36-km horizontal grid spacing. The adjoint of the coupled system has been derived by means of automatic differentiation using the software tool TAF. Finite perturbation simulations are performed to check the information provided by the adjoint. The sea-ice model's performance in the presence of narrow straits is assessed with different sea-ice lateral boundary conditions. The adjoint sensitivity clearly exposes the role of the model trajectory and the transient nature of the problem. The complex interplay between forcing, dynamics, and boundary condition is demonstrated in the comparison between the different calculations. The study is a step towards fully coupled adjoint-based ocean/sea-ice state estimation at basin to global scales as part of the ECCO efforts.

Holocene sea surface temperature and sea ice extent in the Okhotsk and Bering Seas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harada, Naomi; Katsuki, Kota; Nakagawa, Mitsuhiro; Matsumoto, Akiko; Seki, Osamu; Addison, Jason A.; Finney, Bruce P.; Sato, Miyako

2014-01-01

Accurate prediction of future climate requires an understanding of the mechanisms of the Holocene climate; however, the driving forces, mechanisms, and processes of climate change in the Holocene associated with different time scales remain unclear. We investigated the drivers of Holocene sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice extent in the North Pacific Ocean, and the Okhotsk and Bering Seas, as inferred from sediment core records, by using the alkenone unsaturation index as a biomarker of SST and abundances of sea ice-related diatoms (F. cylindrus and F. oceanica) as an indicator of sea ice extent to explore controlling mechanisms in the high-latitude Pacific. Temporal changes in alkenone content suggest that alkenone production was relatively high during the middle Holocene in the Okhotsk Sea and the western North Pacific, but highest in the late Holocene in the eastern Bering Sea and the eastern North Pacific. The Holocene variations of alkenone-SSTs at sites near Kamchatka in the Northwest Pacific, as well as in the western and eastern regions of the Bering Sea, and in the eastern North Pacific track the changes of Holocene summer insolation at 50°N, but at other sites in the western North Pacific, in the southern Okhotsk Sea, and the eastern Bering Sea they do not. In addition to insolation, other atmosphere and ocean climate drivers, such as sea ice distribution and changes in the position and activity of the Aleutian Low, may have systematically influenced the timing and magnitude of warming and cooling during the Holocene within the subarctic North Pacific. Periods of high sea ice extent in both the Okhotsk and Bering Seas may correspond to some periods of frequent or strong winter–spring dust storms in the Mongolian Gobi Desert, particularly one centered at ∼4–3 thousand years before present (kyr BP). Variation in storm activity in the Mongolian Gobi Desert region may reflect changes in the strength and positions of the Aleutian Low and Siberian

Probabilistic approach for earthquake scenarios in the Marmara region from dynamic rupture simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo

2014-05-01

The Marmara region (Turkey) along the North Anatolian fault is known as a high potential of large earthquakes in the next decades. For the purpose of seismic hazard/risk evaluation, kinematic and dynamic source models have been proposed (e.g. Oglesby and Mai, GJI, 2012). In general, the simulated earthquake scenarios depend on the hypothesis and cannot be verified before the expected earthquake. We then introduce a probabilistic insight to give the initial/boundary conditions to statistically analyze the simulated scenarios. We prepare different fault geometry models, tectonic loading and hypocenter locations. We keep the same framework of the simulation procedure as the dynamic rupture process of the adjacent 1999 Izmit earthquake (Aochi and Madariaga, BSSA, 2003), as the previous models were able to reproduce the seismological/geodetic aspects of the event. Irregularities in fault geometry play a significant role to control the rupture progress, and a relatively large change in geometry may work as barriers. The variety of the simulate earthquake scenarios should be useful for estimating the variety of the expected ground motion.

The rheological structure of the lithosphere in the Eastern Marmara region, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oruç, Bülent; Sönmez, Tuba

2017-05-01

The aim of this work is to propose the geometries of the crustal-lithospheric mantle boundary (Moho) and lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) and the 1D thermal structure of the lithosphere, in order to establish a rheological model of the Eastern Marmara region. The average depths of Moho and LAB are respectively 35 km and 51 km from radially averaged amplitude spectra of EGM08 Bouguer anomalies. The geometries of Moho and LAB interfaces are estimated from the Parker-Oldenburg gravity inversion algorithm. Our results show the Moho depth varies from 31 km at the northern part of North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) to 39 km below the mountain belt in the southern part of the NAFZ. The depth to the LAB beneath the same parts of the region ranges from 45 km to 55 km. Having lithospheric strength and thermal boundary layer structure, we analyzed the conditions of development of lithosphere thinning. A two-dimensional strength profile has been estimated for rheology model of the study area. Thus we suggest that the rheological structure consists of a strong upper crust, a weak lower crust, and a partly molten upper lithospheric mantle.

Sea-level and deep-sea-temperature variability over the past 5.3 million years.

PubMed

Rohling, E J; Foster, G L; Grant, K M; Marino, G; Roberts, A P; Tamisiea, M E; Williams, F

2014-04-24

Ice volume (and hence sea level) and deep-sea temperature are key measures of global climate change. Sea level has been documented using several independent methods over the past 0.5 million years (Myr). Older periods, however, lack such independent validation; all existing records are related to deep-sea oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data that are influenced by processes unrelated to sea level. For deep-sea temperature, only one continuous high-resolution (Mg/Ca-based) record exists, with related sea-level estimates, spanning the past 1.5 Myr. Here we present a novel sea-level reconstruction, with associated estimates of deep-sea temperature, which independently validates the previous 0-1.5 Myr reconstruction and extends it back to 5.3 Myr ago. We find that deep-sea temperature and sea level generally decreased through time, but distinctly out of synchrony, which is remarkable given the importance of ice-albedo feedbacks on the radiative forcing of climate. In particular, we observe a large temporal offset during the onset of Plio-Pleistocene ice ages, between a marked cooling step at 2.73 Myr ago and the first major glaciation at 2.15 Myr ago. Last, we tentatively infer that ice sheets may have grown largest during glacials with more modest reductions in deep-sea temperature.

An optical model for the microwave properties of sea ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gloersen, P.; Larabee, J. K.

1981-01-01

The complex refractive index of sea ice is modeled and used to predict the microwave signatures of various sea ice types. Results are shown to correspond well with the observed values of the complex index inferred from dielectic constant and dielectric loss measurements performed in the field, and with observed microwave signatures of sea ice. The success of this modeling procedure vis a vis modeling of the dielectric properties of sea ice constituents used earlier by several others is explained. Multiple layer radiative transfer calculations are used to predict the microwave properties of first-year sea ice with and without snow, and multiyear sea ice.

The Cosmonaut Sea Wedge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Solli, K.; Kuvaas, B.; Kristoffersen, Y.; Leitchenkov, G.; Guseva, J.; Gandyukhin, V.

2007-01-01

A set of multi-channel seismic profiles (~15000 km) acquired by Russia, Norway and Australia has been used to investigate the depositional evolution of the Cosmonaut Sea margin of East Antarctica. We recognize a regional sediment wedge below the upper part of the continental rise. The wedge, herein termed the Cosmonaut Sea Wedge, is positioned stratigraphically underneath the inferred glaciomarine section and extends for at least 1200 km along the continental margin and from 80 to about 250 km seaward or to the north. Lateral variations in the growth pattern of the wedge indicate several overlapping depocentres, which at their distal northern end are flanked by elongated mounded drifts and contourite sheets. The internal stratification of the mounded drift deposits suggests that westward flowing bottom currents reworked the marginal deposits. The action of these currents together with sea-level changes is considered to have controlled the growth of the wedge. We interpret the Cosmonaut Sea Wedge as a composite feature comprising several bottom current reworked fan systems.

Thin Sea-Ice Thickness as Inferred from Passive Microwave and In Situ Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naoki, Kazuhiro; Ukita, Jinro; Nishio, Fumihiko; Nakayama, Masashige; Comiso, Josefino C.; Gasiewski, Al

2007-01-01

Since microwave radiometric signals from sea-ice strongly reflect physical conditions of a layer near the ice surface, a relationship of brightness temperature with thickness is possible especially during the early stages of ice growth. Sea ice is most saline during formation stage and as the salinity decreases with time while at the same time the thickness of the sea ice increases, a corresponding change in the dielectric properties and hence the brightness temperature may occur. This study examines the extent to which the relationships of thickness with brightness temperature (and with emissivity) hold for thin sea-ice, approximately less than 0.2 -0.3 m, using near concurrent measurements of sea-ice thickness in the Sea of Okhotsk from a ship and passive microwave brightness temperature data from an over-flying aircraft. The results show that the brightness temperature and emissivity increase with ice thickness for the frequency range of 10-37 GHz. The relationship is more pronounced at lower frequencies and at the horizontal polarization. We also established an empirical relationship between ice thickness and salinity in the layer near the ice surface from a field experiment, which qualitatively support the idea that changes in the near-surface brine characteristics contribute to the observed thickness-brightness temperature/emissivity relationship. Our results suggest that for thin ice, passive microwave radiometric signals contain, ice thickness information which can be utilized in polar process studies.

Mediterranean sea water budget long-term trend inferred from salinity observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skliris, N.; Zika, J. D.; Herold, L.; Josey, S. A.; Marsh, R.

2018-01-01

Changes in the Mediterranean water cycle since 1950 are investigated using salinity and reanalysis based air-sea freshwater flux datasets. Salinity observations indicate a strong basin-scale multi-decadal salinification, particularly in the intermediate and deep layers. Evaporation, precipitation and river runoff variations are all shown to contribute to a very strong increase in net evaporation of order 20-30%. While large temporal uncertainties and discrepancies are found between E-P multi-decadal trend patterns in the reanalysis datasets, a more robust and spatially coherent structure of multi-decadal change is obtained for the salinity field. Salinity change implies an increase in net evaporation of 8 to 12% over 1950-2010, which is considerably lower than that suggested by air-sea freshwater flux products, but still largely exceeding estimates of global water cycle amplification. A new method based on water mass transformation theory is used to link changes in net evaporation over the Mediterranean Sea with changes in the volumetric distribution of salinity. The water mass transformation distribution in salinity coordinates suggests that the Mediterranean basin salinification is driven by changes in the regional water cycle rather than changes in salt transports at the straits.

Impact of earthquakes on sex ratio at birth: Eastern Marmara earthquakes

PubMed Central

Doğer, Emek; Çakıroğlu, Yiğit; Köpük, Şule Yıldırım; Ceylan, Yasin; Şimşek, Hayal Uzelli; Çalışkan, Eray

2013-01-01

Objective: Previous reports suggest that maternal exposure to acute stress related to earthquakes affects the sex ratio at birth. Our aim was to examine the change in sex ratio at birth after Eastern Marmara earthquake disasters. Material and Methods: This study was performed using the official birth statistics from January 1997 to December 2002 – before and after 17 August 1999, the date of the Golcuk Earthquake – supplied from the Turkey Statistics Institute. The secondary sex ratio was expressed as the male proportion at birth, and the ratio of both affected and unaffected areas were calculated and compared on a monthly basis using data from gender with using the Chi-square test. Results: We observed significant decreases in the secondary sex ratio in the 4th and 8th months following an earthquake in the affected region compared to the unaffected region (p= 0.001 and p= 0.024). In the earthquake region, the decrease observed in the secondary sex ratio during the 8th month after an earthquake was specific to the period after the earthquake. Conclusion: Our study indicated a significant reduction in the secondary sex ratio after an earthquake. With these findings, events that cause sudden intense stress such as earthquakes can have an effect on the sex ratio at birth. PMID:24592082

Radioactivity concentrations and dose assessment in surface soil samples from east and south of Marmara region, Turkey.

PubMed

Kiliç, Onder; Belivermis, Murat; Topçuoğlu, Sayhan; Cotuk, Yavuz; Coşkun, Mahmut; Cayir, Akin; Küçer, Rahmi

2008-01-01

The activity concentrations of 137Cs, 40K, 232Th, 238U and 226Ra were measured in surface soil samples from East and South of Marmara region, Turkey. The physico-chemical parameters (organic matter, CaCO3 contents and pH-value) of the soil samples were determined in the samples collected from 100 sampling stations. The average activity concentrations of 137Cs, 40K, 232Th, 238U and 226Ra were found to be 27.46+/-21.84, 442.51+/-189.85, 26.63+/-15.90, 21.77+/-12.08 and 22.45+/-13.31 Bq kg(-1), respectively. The mean value of total annual external gamma radiation dose equivalent for the natural radionuclides was calculated to be 54.86 microSv. The current data were compared with those found in the other locations of Turkey and different countries.

Planning of wastewater treatment and disposal systems of Istanbul metropolitan area.

PubMed

Eroglu, V; Sarikaya, H Z; Aydin, A F

2001-01-01

Current and future wastewater treatment and disposal strategies of Istanbul city are presented. Istanbul is the largest city of Turkey and has a population of 10 million that may reach about 20 million in 2032. The city is divided into Asian and European sides by the Bosphorus Strait. The Sea of Marmara is an enclosed sea, connected to the Black Sea and Aegean Sea by the straits of Bosphorus and Dardanelles. Therefore, there is very strong and permanent stratification in the Sea of Marmara throughout the year, lower layers carrying Mediterranean and the upper layers carrying Black Sea water. This unique coastal structure of Istanbul necessitated a detailed study to determine the level of wastewater treatment and the location and depth of marine outfalls. A comprehensive three-dimensional water quality modelling study concluded that tertiary treatment including nitrogen and phosphorus removal is required for the effluent discharges into the Marmara Sea. However, enhanced primary or even primary treatment has been found satisfactory for discharges into the lower layers of the Bosphorus and into the Black Sea. Provisions for upgrading to secondary treatment were recommended. The status of existing and planned wastewater treatment plants and sea outfalls of Istanbul city are also presented. Although the amount of treated wastewater was only 63 percent in 1998, a target of 95 percent treatment level by the end of 2000 has been adopted in implementation plans. All treatment plants are located at or close to the coast except Pasakoy WWTP which is in the catchment area of Omerli Reservoir, the major source of drinking water for Istanbul city. The Pasakoy WWTP has been designed to treat wastewaters collected from the catchment area of Omerli Reservoir to tertiary level before ultimate disposal. The implementation programme together with the cost estimates are given. Total investment on water, wastewater and stormwater projects up to year 2032 is estimated at about 10

The sea-level fingerprints of ice-sheet collapse during interglacial periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, Carling; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Gomez, Natalya; Creveling, Jessica R.; Austermann, Jacqueline; E. Kopp, Robert

2014-03-01

Studies of sea level during previous interglacials provide insight into the stability of polar ice sheets in the face of global climate change. Commonly, these studies correct ancient sea-level highstands for the contaminating effect of isostatic adjustment associated with past ice age cycles, and interpret the residuals as being equivalent to the peak eustatic sea level associated with excess melting, relative to present day, of ancient polar ice sheets. However, the collapse of polar ice sheets produces a distinct geometry, or fingerprint, of sea-level change, which must be accounted for to accurately infer peak eustatic sea level from site-specific residual highstands. To explore this issue, we compute fingerprints associated with the collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and marine sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in order to isolate regions that would have been subject to greater-than-eustatic sea-level change for all three cases. These fingerprints are more robust than those associated with modern melting events, when applied to infer eustatic sea level, because: (1) a significant collapse of polar ice sheets reduces the sensitivity of the computed fingerprints to uncertainties in the geometry of the melt regions; and (2) the sea-level signal associated with the collapse will dominate the signal from steric effects. We evaluate these fingerprints at a suite of sites where sea-level records from interglacial marine isotopes stages (MIS) 5e and 11 have been obtained. Using these results, we demonstrate that previously discrepant estimates of peak eustatic sea level during MIS5e based on sea-level markers in Australia and the Seychelles are brought into closer accord.

Spatial variability of coastal wetland resilience to sea-level rise using Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardy, T.; Wu, W.

2017-12-01

The coastal wetlands in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) account for 40% of coastal wetland area in the United States and provide various ecosystem services to the region and broader areas. Increasing rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR), and reduced sediment input have increased coastal wetland loss in the NGOM, accounting for 80% of coastal wetland loss in the nation. Traditional models for predicting the impact of RSLR on coastal wetlands in the NGOM have focused on coastal erosion driven by geophysical variables only, and/or at small spatial extents. Here we developed a model in Bayesian inference to make probabilistic prediction of wetland loss in the entire NGOM as a function of vegetation productivity and geophysical attributes. We also studied how restoration efforts help maintain the area of coastal wetlands. Vegetation productivity contributes organic matter to wetland sedimentation and was approximated using the remotely sensed normalized difference moisture index (NDMI). The geophysical variables include RSLR, tidal range, river discharge, coastal slope, and wave height. We found a significantly positive relation between wetland loss and RSLR, which varied significantly at different river discharge regimes. There also existed a significantly negative relation between wetland loss and NDMI, indicating that in-situ vegetation productivity contributed to wetland resilience to RSLR. This relation did not vary significantly between river discharge regimes. The spatial relation revealed three areas of high RSLR but relatively low wetland loss; these areas were associated with wetland restoration projects in coastal Louisiana. Two projects were breakwater projects, where hard materials were placed off-shore to reduce wave action and promote sedimentation. And one project was a vegetation planting project used to promote sedimentation and wetland stabilization. We further developed an interactive web tool that allows stakeholders to develop similar wetland

Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zappa, G.; Pithan, F.; Shepherd, T. G.

2018-01-01

Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.

Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections.

PubMed

Zappa, G; Pithan, F; Shepherd, T G

2018-01-28

Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO 2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.

Seismic hazard in the Istanbul metropolitan area: A preliminary re-evaluation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kalkan, E.; Gulkan, Polat; Ozturk, N.Y.; Celebi, M.

2008-01-01

In 1999, two destructive earthquakes (M7.4 Kocaeli and M7.2 Duzce) occurred in the north west of Turkey and resulted in major stress-drops on the western segment of the North Anatolian Fault system where it continues under the Marmara Sea. These undersea fault segments were recently explored using bathymetric and reflection surveys. These recent findings helped to reshape the seismotectonic environment of the Marmara basin, which is a perplexing tectonic domain. Based on collected new information, seismic hazard of the Marmara region, particularly Istanbul Metropolitan Area and its vicinity, were re-examined using a probabilistic approach. Two seismic source and alternate recurrence models combined with various indigenous and foreign attenuation relationships were adapted within a logic tree formulation to quantify and project the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. The hazard maps show the peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1.0 s. These acceleration levels were computed for 2 and 10 % probabilities of transcendence in 50 years.

Geoid undulations and gravity anomalies over the Aral Sea, the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea from a combined GEOS-3/SEASAT/GEOSAT altimeter data set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Au, Andrew Y.; Brown, Richard D.; Welker, Jean E.

1991-01-01

Satellite-based altimetric data taken by GOES-3, SEASAT, and GEOSAT over the Aral Sea, the Black Sea, and the Caspian Sea are analyzed and a least squares collocation technique is used to predict the geoid undulations on a 0.25x0.25 deg. grid and to transform these geoid undulations to free air gravity anomalies. Rapp's 180x180 geopotential model is used as the reference surface for the collocation procedure. The result of geoid to gravity transformation is, however, sensitive to the information content of the reference geopotential model used. For example, considerable detailed surface gravity data were incorporated into the reference model over the Black Sea, resulting in a reference model with significant information content at short wavelengths. Thus, estimation of short wavelength gravity anomalies from gridded geoid heights is generally reliable over regions such as the Black Sea, using the conventional collocation technique with local empirical covariance functions. Over regions such as the Caspian Sea, where detailed surface data are generally not incorporated into the reference model, unconventional techniques are needed to obtain reliable gravity anomalies. Based on the predicted gravity anomalies over these inland seas, speculative tectonic structures are identified and geophysical processes are inferred.

Geochemistry of the Black Sea during the last 15 kyr: A protracted evolution of its hydrography and ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piper, David Z.

2016-01-01

The Black Sea is a 2200 m deep anoxic, marine sea connected to the Mediterranean Sea via the Dardanelles Strait, Marmara Sea, and the 3 km wide, 35 m deep Bosphorus Strait. The biogeochemistry of sediment from the Anatolia slope has recorded changes to the hydrography leading up to and following the input of Mediterranean water at ~9.4 ka (103 years B.P.), when global sea level rose to the level of the Bosphorus sill and high-salinity water from the Mediterranean began to spill into the then brackish lake. The water initially mixed little with the lake water but cascaded to the bottom where it remained essentially isolated for ~1.6 kyr, the time required to fill the basin from the bottom up at its present input rate. The accumulation of Mo in the seafloor sediments, a proxy of bottom-water anoxia, increased sharply at ~8.6 ka, when bacterial respiration in the bottom water advanced to SO42− reduction by the oxidation of organic detritus that settled out of the photic zone. Its accumulation remained elevated to ~5.6 ka, when it decreased 60%, only to again increase slightly at ~2.0 ka. The accumulation of Corg, a proxy of primary productivity, increased threefold to fourfold at ~7.8 ka, when upward mixing of the high-salinity bottom water replaced the then thin veneer of the brackish photic zone in less than 50 years. From that time onward, the accumulation of Corg, Mo, and additional trace metals has reflected the hydrography of the basin and Bosphorus Strait, controlled largely by climate.

Historical Sea Level in the South Pacific from Rescued Archives, Geodetic Measurements, and Satellite Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aucan, J.; Merrifield, M. A.; Pouvreau, N.

2017-10-01

Automatic sea-level measurements in Nouméa, South Pacific, started in 1957 for the International Geophysical year. Data from this location exist in paper record for the 1957-1967 period, and in two distinct electronic records for the 1967-2005 and 2005-2015 period. In this study, we digitize the early record, and established a link between the two electronic records to create a unique, nearly 60 year-long instrumental sea-level record. This work creates one of the longest instrumental sea-level records in the Pacific Islands. These data are critical for the study of regional and interannual variations of sea level. This new data set is then used to infer rates of vertical movements by comparing it to (1) the entire satellite altimetric record (1993-2013) and (2) a global sea-level reconstruction (1957-2010). These inferred rates show an uplift of 1.3-1.4 mm/year, opposite to the currently accepted values of subsidence found in the geological and geodetic literature, and underlie the importance of systematic geodetic measurements at, over very near tide gauges.

Satellite Geodetic Constraints On Earthquake Processes: Implications of the 1999 Turkish Earthquakes for Fault Mechanics and Seismic Hazards on the San Andreas Fault

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reilinger, Robert

2005-01-01

Our principal activities during the initial phase of this project include: 1) Continued monitoring of postseismic deformation for the 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes from repeated GPS survey measurements and expansion of the Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET), 2) Establishing three North Anatolian fault crossing profiles (10 sitedprofile) at locations that experienced major surface-fault earthquakes at different times in the past to examine strain accumulation as a function of time in the earthquake cycle (2004), 3) Repeat observations of selected sites in the fault-crossing profiles (2005), 4) Repeat surveys of the Marmara GPS network to continue to monitor postseismic deformation, 5) Refining block models for the Marmara Sea seismic gap area to better understand earthquake hazards in the Greater Istanbul area, 6) Continuing development of models for afterslip and distributed viscoelastic deformation for the earthquake cycle. We are keeping close contact with MIT colleagues (Brad Hager, and Eric Hetland) who are developing models for S. California and for the earthquake cycle in general (Hetland, 2006). In addition, our Turkish partners at the Marmara Research Center have undertaken repeat, micro-gravity measurements at the MAGNET sites and have provided us estimates of gravity change during the period 2003 - 2005.

Intense deformation field at oceanic front inferred from directional sea surface roughness observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rascle, Nicolas; Molemaker, Jeroen; Marié, Louis; Nouguier, Frédéric; Chapron, Bertrand; Lund, Björn; Mouche, Alexis

2017-06-01

Fine-scale current gradients at the ocean surface can be observed by sea surface roughness. More specifically, directional surface roughness anomalies are related to the different horizontal current gradient components. This paper reports results from a dedicated experiment during the Lagrangian Submesoscale Experiment (LASER) drifter deployment. A very sharp front, 50 m wide, is detected simultaneously in drifter trajectories, sea surface temperature, and sea surface roughness. A new observational method is applied, using Sun glitter reflections during multiple airplane passes to reconstruct the multiangle roughness anomaly. This multiangle anomaly is consistent with wave-current interactions over a front, including both cross-front convergence and along-front shear with cyclonic vorticity. Qualitatively, results agree with drifters and X-band radar observations. Quantitatively, the sharpness of roughness anomaly suggests intense current gradients, 0.3 m s-1 over the 50 m wide front. This work opens new perspectives for monitoring intense oceanic fronts using drones or satellite constellations.

Systematics and biogeography of New World sea catfishes (Siluriformes: Ariidae) as inferred from mitochondrial, nuclear, and morphological evidence.

PubMed

Betancur-R, Ricardo; Acero P, Arturo; Bermingham, Eldredge; Cooke, Richard

2007-10-01

Ariid or sea catfishes include around 150 species that inhabit marine, brackish, and freshwater environments along world's tropical and subtropical continental shelves. Phylogenetic relationships for 46 New World and three Old World species of ariids were hypothesized using maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference reconstruction criteria on 2842 mitochondrial (cytochrome b, ATP synthase 8 and 6, ribosomal 12S and 16S) and 978 nuclear (rag2) nucleotide sites. The molecular topologies were compared to a previously compiled morphological dataset that was expanded herein to a total of 25 ariid species and 55 characters. Mitochondrial data yielded clades highly resolved at subfamilial, generic, and intrageneric levels. Nuclear rag2 reconstructions showed poor resolution at supra- and intrageneric levels, but provided support for the monophyly of most genera (except Ariopsis and Cathorops) as well as for the subfamilial clades. The hypothesized phylogeny derived from the morphological data was congruent with the molecular topologies at infrafamilial and generic levels. As indicated by the statistical tests of topological congruence, Kailola's phylogenetic hypothesis of ariids based on anatomical data is significantly different from our molecular trees. All reconstructions agree in the division of the Ariidae into two subfamilies, the Ariinae and the monogeneric Galeichthyinae. Basal ariine resolution was negligible suggesting that early diversification events occurred rapidly. The three Indo-Pacific taxa were grouped into a clade, but New World ariines were never recovered as monophyletic. We provide a revised classification for New World ariines examined, which is consistent with the molecular and the morphological evidence. Our classification scheme includes the genera Ariopsis, Bagre, Cathorops, Notarius, Potamarius, and Sciades, and the description of two new genus-level taxa (Occidentarius n. gen and Precathorops n. subgen.). We also hypothesize plausible

New model for Jurassic microcontinent movement and Gondwana breakup in the Weddell Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Tom; Ferraccioli, Fausto; Leat, Philip

2017-04-01

The breakup of the Gondwana supercontinent changed the face of our planet. Precursors of supercontinental breakup are widely recognised in the Weddell Sea region in the Jurassic. These include the Karoo/Ferrar Large Igneous Province that extends from South Africa to East Antarctica and significant continental rifting and associated translation of microcontinental blocks in the Weddell Sea Embayment region. However, significant controversy surrounds the pre-breakup position, extent, timing and driving mechanism of inferred microcontinental movement. In particular geological and paleomagnetic data suggest >1000 km of translation and 90 degree rotation of the Haag-Ellsworth Whitmore block (HEW) away from East Antarctica. In contrast, some geophysical interpretations suggest little or no Jurassic or subsequent HEW block movement. Here we present a simpler tectonic model for the Weddell Sea Rift System and HEW movement, derived from our new compilation of airborne geophysical data, satellite magnetic data and potential field modelling (Jordan et al., 2016- Gondwana Res.). Based on the amount of inferred Jurassic crustal extension and pattern of magnetic anomalies we propose that the HEW was translated 500 km towards the Paleo-Pacific margin of Gondwana, possibly in response to a process of slab roll-back that led to distributed back-arc extension in the Weddell Sea Rift System. Widespread magmatism in the region was likely influenced by the presence of one or more mantle plumes impinging beneath the stretching lithosphere. A second phase of continental extension is inferred to have occurred between 180 and 165 Ma (prior to seafloor spreading) and is more closely associated with Gondwana breakup. This second phase over-printed the northern part of the older back arc system. We find no geophysical evidence indicating more than 30 degrees of syn-extensional HEW rotation during Jurassic rifting in the southern Weddell Sea Rift System. Instead, we propose the majority ( 60

An overview of chemosynthetic symbioses in bivalves from the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duperron, S.; Gaudron, S. M.; Rodrigues, C. F.; Cunha, M. R.; Decker, C.; Olu, K.

2013-05-01

Deep-sea bivalves found at hydrothermal vents, cold seeps and organic falls are sustained by chemosynthetic bacteria that ensure part or all of their carbon nutrition. These symbioses are of prime importance for the functioning of the ecosystems. Similar symbioses occur in other bivalve species living in shallow and coastal reduced habitats worldwide. In recent years, several deep-sea species have been investigated from continental margins around Europe, West Africa, eastern Americas, the Gulf of Mexico, and from hydrothermal vents on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. In parallel, numerous, more easily accessible shallow marine species have been studied. Herein we provide a summary of the current knowledge available on chemosymbiotic bivalves in the area ranging west-to-east from the Gulf of Mexico to the Sea of Marmara, and north-to-south from the Arctic to the Gulf of Guinea. Characteristics of symbioses in 53 species from the area are summarized for each of the five bivalve families documented to harbor chemosynthetic symbionts (Mytilidae, Vesicomyidae, Solemyidae, Thyasiridae and Lucinidae). Comparisons are made between the families, with special emphasis on ecology, life cycle, and connectivity. Chemosynthetic symbioses are a major adaptation to ecosystems and habitats exposed to reducing conditions. However, relatively little is known regarding their diversity and functioning, apart from a few "model species" on which effort has focused over the last 30 yr. In the context of increasing concern about biodiversity and ecosystems, and increasing anthropogenic pressure on oceans, we advocate a better assessment of the diversity of bivalve symbioses in order to evaluate the capacities of these remarkable ecological and evolutionary units to withstand environmental change.

GeoSEA: Geodetic Earthquake Observatory on the Seafloor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, Heidrun; Lange, Dietrich; Flueh, Ernst R.; Petersen, Florian; Behrmann, Jan-Hinrich; Devey, Colin

2014-05-01

monitor station settlement in two horizontal directions. Data can be acquired and recorded autonomously subsea without system or human intervention for up to 6 years. These data can then be recovered via the integrated high-speed acoustic telemetry link without recovering the seafloor units. When requested to do so, the stored data will be transmitted wirelessly up to the sea surface to the GeoSURF wave glider for onward transmission via a satellite link. Targets for GeoSEA are the marine sector of the North Anatolian fault zone in the Marmara Sea, where a joint French-German array will be installed in late 2014 as well as the central sector of the South America - Nazca convergent plate boundary along the Iquique segment, offshore Northern Chile. Here, the GeoSEA array will be installed in late 2015 to monitor crustal deformation. Mobile autonomous seafloor arrays for continuous measurement of active seafloor deformation in hazard zones have the potential to lead to transformative discoveries of plate boundary/fault zone tectonic processes and address a novel element of marine geophysical research.

Model selection and Bayesian inference for high-resolution seabed reflection inversion.

PubMed

Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E; Holland, Charles W

2009-02-01

This paper applies Bayesian inference, including model selection and posterior parameter inference, to inversion of seabed reflection data to resolve sediment structure at a spatial scale below the pulse length of the acoustic source. A practical approach to model selection is used, employing the Bayesian information criterion to decide on the number of sediment layers needed to sufficiently fit the data while satisfying parsimony to avoid overparametrization. Posterior parameter inference is carried out using an efficient Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for high-dimensional models, and results are presented as marginal-probability depth distributions for sound velocity, density, and attenuation. The approach is applied to plane-wave reflection-coefficient inversion of single-bounce data collected on the Malta Plateau, Mediterranean Sea, which indicate complex fine structure close to the water-sediment interface. This fine structure is resolved in the geoacoustic inversion results in terms of four layers within the upper meter of sediments. The inversion results are in good agreement with parameter estimates from a gravity core taken at the experiment site.

Pore water geochemistry along continental slopes north of the East Siberian Sea: inference of low methane concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Clint M.; Dickens, Gerald R.; Jakobsson, Martin; Johansson, Carina; Koshurnikov, Andrey; O'Regan, Matt; Muschitiello, Francesco; Stranne, Christian; Mörth, Carl-Magnus

2017-06-01

Continental slopes north of the East Siberian Sea potentially hold large amounts of methane (CH4) in sediments as gas hydrate and free gas. Although release of this CH4 to the ocean and atmosphere has become a topic of discussion, the region remains sparingly explored. Here we present pore water chemistry results from 32 sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 joint Swedish-Russian-US Arctic Ocean Investigation of Climate-Cryosphere-Carbon Interactions (SWERUS-C3) expedition. The cores come from depth transects across the slope and rise extending between the Mendeleev and the Lomonosov ridges, north of Wrangel Island and the New Siberian Islands, respectively. Upward CH4 flux towards the seafloor, as inferred from profiles of dissolved sulfate (SO42-), alkalinity, and the δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), is negligible at all stations east of 143° E longitude. In the upper 8 m of these cores, downward SO42- flux never exceeds 6.2 mol m-2 kyr-1, the upward alkalinity flux never exceeds 6.8 mol m-2 kyr-1, and δ13C composition of DIC (δ13C-DIC) only moderately decreases with depth (-3.6 ‰ m-1 on average). Moreover, upon addition of Zn acetate to pore water samples, ZnS did not precipitate, indicating a lack of dissolved H2S. Phosphate, ammonium, and metal profiles reveal that metal oxide reduction by organic carbon dominates the geochemical environment and supports very low organic carbon turnover rates. A single core on the Lomonosov Ridge differs, as diffusive fluxes for SO42- and alkalinity were 13.9 and 11.3 mol m-2 kyr-1, respectively, the δ13C-DIC gradient was 5.6 ‰ m-1, and Mn2+ reduction terminated within 1.3 m of the seafloor. These are among the first pore water results generated from this vast climatically sensitive region, and they imply that abundant CH4, including gas hydrates, do not characterize the East Siberian Sea slope or rise along the investigated depth transects. This contradicts previous modeling and discussions, which

Thorium-230 ages of corals and duration of the last interglacial sea-level high stand on Oahu, Hawaii

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Szabo, B.J.; Ludwig, K.R.; Muhs, D.R.

1994-10-07

Thorium-230 ages of emergent marine deposits on Oahu, Hawaii, have a uniform distribution of ages from {approximately}114,000 to {approximately}131,000 years, indicating a duration for the last interglacial sea-level high stand of {approximately}17,000 years, in contrast to a duration of {approximately}8000 years inferred from the orbitally tuned marine oxygen isotope record. Sea level on Oahu rose to {>=}1 to 2 meters higher than present by 131,000 years ago or {approximately}6000 years earlier than inferred from the marine record. Although the latter record suggests a shift back to glacial conditions beginning at {approximately}119,000 years ago, the Oahu coral ages indicate a nearmore » present sea level until {approximately}114,000 years ago.« less

Implementing the effect of the rupture directivity on PSHA maps: Application to the Marmara Region (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrero, Andre; Spagnuolo, Elena; Akinci, Aybige; Pucci, Stefano

2016-04-01

In the present study we attempted to improve the seismic hazard assessment taking into account possible sources of epistemic uncertainty and the azimuthal variability of the ground motions which, at a particular site, is significantly influenced by the rupture mechanism and the rupture direction relative to the site. As a study area we selected Marmara Region (Turkey), especially the city of Istanbul which is characterized by one of the highest levels of seismic risk in Europe and the Mediterranean region. The seismic hazard in the city is mainly associated with two active fault segments which are located at about 20-30 km south of Istanbul. In this perspective first we proposed a methodology to incorporate this new information such as nucleation point in a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) framework. Secondly we introduced information about those fault segments by focusing on the fault rupture characteristics which affect the azimuthal variations of the ground motion spatial distribution i.e. source directivity effect and its influence on the probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). An analytical model developed by Spudich and Chiou (2008) is used as a corrective factor that modifies the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA, Power et al. 2008) ground motion predictive equations (GMPEs) introducing rupture related parameters that generally lump together into the term directivity effect. We used the GMPEs as derived by the Abrahamson and Silva (2008) and the Boore and Atkinson (2008); our results are given in terms of 10% probability of exceedance of PSHA (at several periods from 0.5 s to 10 s) in 50 years on rock site condition; the correction for directivity introduces a significant contribution to the percentage ratio between the seismic hazards computed using the directivity model respect to the seismic hazard standard practice. In particular, we benefited the dynamic simulation from a previous study (Aochi & Utrich, 2015) aimed at evaluating the

Microtremor Array Measurement Survey and Strong Ground Motion Observation Activities of The MarDiM (SATREPS) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozgur Citak, Seckin; Karagoz, Ozlem; Chimoto, Kosuke; Ozel, Oguz; Yamanaka, Hiroaki; Aksahin, Bengi; Arslan, Safa; Hatayama, Ken; Ohori, Michihiro; Hori, Muneo

2015-04-01

Since 1939, devastating earthquakes with magnitude greater than seven ruptured North Anatolian Fault (NAF) westward, starting from 1939 Erzincan (Ms=7.9) at the eastern Turkey and including the latest 1999 Izmit-Golcuk (Ms=7.4) and the Duzce (Ms=7.2) earthquakes in the eastern Marmara region, Turkey. On the other hand, the west of the Sea of Marmara an Mw7.4 earthquake ruptured the NAF' s Ganos segment in 1912. The only un-ruptured segments of the NAF in the last century are within the Sea of Marmara, and are identified as a "seismic gap" zone that its rupture may cause a devastating earthquake. In order to unravel the seismic risks of the Marmara region a comprehensive multidisciplinary research project The MarDiM project "Earthquake And Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in The Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey", has already been started since 2003. The project is conducted in the framework of "Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS)" sponsored by Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). One of the main research field of the project is "Seismic characterization and damage prediction" which aims to improve the prediction accuracy of the estimation of the damages induced by strong ground motions and tsunamis based on reliable source parameters, detailed deep and shallow velocity structure and building data. As for detailed deep and shallow velocity structure microtremor array measurement surveys were conducted in Zeytinburnu district of Istanbul and Tekirdag province at about 81 sites on October 2013 and September 2014. Also in September 2014, 11 accelerometer units were installed mainly in public buildings in both Zeytinburnu and Tekirdag area and are currently in operation. Each accelerometer unit compose of a Network Sensor (CV-374A2) by Tokyo Sokushin, post processing PC for data storage and power supply unit. The Network Sensor (CV-374A2) consist of three servo

Microtremor Array Measurement Survey and Strong Ground Motion observation activities of The SATREPS, MarDiM project -Part 2-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Citak, Seckin; Karagoz, Ozlem; Chimoto, Kosuke; Ozel, Oguz; Yamanaka, Hiroaki; Arslan, Safa; Aksahin, Bengi; Hatayama, Ken; Ohori, Michihiro; Hori, Muneo

2016-04-01

Since 1939, devastating earthquakes with magnitude greater than seven ruptured North Anatolian Fault (NAF) westward, starting from 1939 Erzincan (Ms=7.9) at the eastern Turkey and including the latest 1999 Izmit-Golcuk (Ms=7.4) and the Duzce (Ms=7.2) earthquakes in the eastern Marmara region, Turkey. On the other hand, the west of the Sea of Marmara an Mw7.4 earthquake ruptured the NAF' s Ganos segment in 1912. The only un-ruptured segments of the NAF in the last century are within the Sea of Marmara, and are identified as a "seismic gap" zone that its rupture may cause a devastating earthquake. In order to unravel the seismic risks of the Marmara region a comprehensive multidisciplinary research project The MarDiM project "Earthquake And Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in The Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey", has already been started since 2003. The project is conducted in the framework of "Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS)" sponsored by Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). One of the main research field of the project is "Seismic characterization and damage prediction" which aims to improve the prediction accuracy of the estimation of the damages induced by strong ground motions and tsunamis based on reliable source parameters, detailed deep and shallow velocity structure and building data. As for detailed deep and shallow velocity structure microtremor array measurement surveys were conducted in Zeytinburnu district of Istanbul, Tekirdag, Canakkale and Edirne provinces at about 109 sites on October 2013, September 2014 and 2015. Also in September 2014, 11 accelerometer units were installed mainly in public buildings in both Zeytinburnu and Tekirdag area and are currently in operation. Each accelerometer unit compose of a Network Sensor (CV-374A) by Tokyo Sokushin, post processing PC for data storage and power supply unit. The Network Sensor (CV-374

Microtremor Array Measurement Survey and Strong Ground Motion observation activities of The SATREPS, MarDiM project -Part 3-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Citak, Seckin; Safa Arslan, Mehmet; Karagoz, Ozlem; Chimoto, Kosuke; Ozel, Oguz; Yamanaka, Hiroaki; Behiye Aksahin, Bengi; Hatayama, Ken; Sahin, Abdurrahman; Ohori, Michihiro; Safak, Erdal; Hori, Muneo

2017-04-01

Since 1939, devastating earthquakes with magnitude greater than seven ruptured North Anatolian Fault (NAF) westward, starting from 1939 Erzincan (Ms=7.9) at the eastern Turkey and including the latest 1999 Izmit-Golcuk (Ms=7.4) and the Duzce (Ms=7.2) earthquakes in the eastern Marmara region, Turkey. On the other hand, the west of the Sea of Marmara an Mw7.4 earthquake ruptured the NAF' s Ganos segment in 1912. The only un-ruptured segments of the NAF in the last century are within the Sea of Marmara, and are identified as a "seismic gap" zone that its rupture may cause a devastating earthquake. In order to unravel the seismic risks of the Marmara region a comprehensive multidisciplinary research project The MarDiM project "Earthquake And Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in The Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey", has already been started since 2003. The project is conducted in the framework of "Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS)" sponsored by Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). One of the main research field of the project is "Seismic characterization and damage prediction" which aims to improve the prediction accuracy of the estimation of the damages induced by strong ground motions and tsunamis based on reliable source parameters, detailed deep and shallow velocity structure and building data. As for detailed deep and shallow velocity structure microtremor array measurement surveys were conducted in Zeytinburnu district of Istanbul, Tekirdag, Canakkale and Edirne provinces at about 140 sites on October 2013, September 2014, 2015 and 2016. Also in September 2014, 11 accelerometer units were installed mainly in public buildings in both Zeytinburnu and Tekirdag area and are currently in operation. Each accelerometer unit compose of a Network Sensor (CV-374A) by Tokyo Sokushin, post processing PC for data storage and power supply unit. The Network Sensor

The influence of high viscosity slabs on post-glacial sea-level change: the case of Barbados

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austermann, Jacqueline; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Latychev, Konstantin

2013-04-01

The coral record at Barbados is one of the best available measures of relative sea level during the last glacial cycle and has been widely used to reconstruct ice volume (or, equivalently, eustatic sea-level, ESL) changes during the last deglaciation phase of the ice age. However, to estimate ESL variations from the local relative sea level (RSL) history at Barbados, one has to account for the contaminating effect of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). In previous work, the GIA signal at this site has been corrected for by assuming a spherically symmetric (i.e., 1-D) viscoelastic Earth. Since Barbados is located at the margin of the South American - Caribbean subduction zone, this assumption may introduce a significant error in inferences of ice volumes. To address this issue, we use a finite-volume numerical code to model GIA in the Caribbean region including the effects of a lithosphere with variable elastic thickness, plate boundaries, lateral variations in lower mantle viscosity, and a high viscosity slab within the upper mantle. The geometry of the subducted slab is inferred from local seismicity. We find that predictions of relative sea-level change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Caribbean region are diminished by ~10 m, relative to 1-D calculations, which suggests that previous studies have underestimated post-LGM ESL change by the same amount. This perturbation, which largely reflects the impact of the high viscosity slab, is nearly twice the total GIA-induced departure from eustasy predicted at Barbados using the 1-D Earth model. Our calculations imply an excess ice-volume equivalent to ~130 m ESL at the LGM, which brings the Barbados-based estimate into agreement with inferences based on other far-field RSL histories, such as at Bonaparte Gulf. This inference, together with recent studies that have substantially lowered estimates of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass at LGM, suggest that a significant amount of ice remains unaccounted for in sea

Inference of mantle viscosity for depth resolutions of GIA observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakada, Masao; Okuno, Jun'ichi

2016-11-01

Inference of the mantle viscosity from observations for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process has usually been conducted through the analyses based on the simple three-layer viscosity model characterized by lithospheric thickness, upper- and lower-mantle viscosities. Here, we examine the viscosity structures for the simple three-layer viscosity model and also for the two-layer lower-mantle viscosity model defined by viscosities of η670,D (670-D km depth) and ηD,2891 (D-2891 km depth) with D-values of 1191, 1691 and 2191 km. The upper-mantle rheological parameters for the two-layer lower-mantle viscosity model are the same as those for the simple three-layer one. For the simple three-layer viscosity model, rate of change of degree-two zonal harmonics of geopotential due to GIA process (GIA-induced J˙2) of -(6.0-6.5) × 10-11 yr-1 provides two permissible viscosity solutions for the lower mantle, (7-20) × 1021 and (5-9) × 1022 Pa s, and the analyses with observational constraints of the J˙2 and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea levels at Barbados and Bonaparte Gulf indicate (5-9) × 1022 Pa s for the lower mantle. However, the analyses for the J˙2 based on the two-layer lower-mantle viscosity model only require a viscosity layer higher than (5-10) × 1021 Pa s for a depth above the core-mantle boundary (CMB), in which the value of (5-10) × 1021 Pa s corresponds to the solution of (7-20) × 1021 Pa s for the simple three-layer one. Moreover, the analyses with the J˙2 and LGM sea level constraints for the two-layer lower-mantle viscosity model indicate two viscosity solutions: η670,1191 > 3 × 1021 and η1191,2891 ˜ (5-10) × 1022 Pa s, and η670,1691 > 1022 and η1691,2891 ˜ (5-10) × 1022 Pa s. The inferred upper-mantle viscosity for such solutions is (1-4) × 1020 Pa s similar to the estimate for the simple three-layer viscosity model. That is, these analyses require a high viscosity layer of (5-10) × 1022 Pa s at least in the deep mantle, and suggest

A Preliminary Tsunami vulnerability analysis for Bakirkoy district in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tufekci, Duygu; Lutfi Suzen, M.; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Zaytsev, Andrey

2016-04-01

Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis has major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Vulnerability assessment of coastal areas under extreme events has major importance for preparedness and development of mitigation strategies. The Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquakes as well as associated tsunamis. There are variety of coastal facilities such as ports, small craft harbors, and terminals for maritime transportation, water front roads and business centers mainly at North Coast of Marmara Sea in megacity Istanbul. A detailed vulnerability analysis for Yenikapi region and a detailed resilience analysis for Haydarpasa port in Istanbul have been studied in previously by Cankaya et al., (2015) and Aytore et al., (2015) in SATREPS project. In this study, the methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack given in Cankaya et al., (2015) is modified and applied to Bakirkoy district of Istanbul. Bakirkoy district is located at western part of Istanbul and faces to the North Coast of Marmara Sea from 28.77oE to 28.89oE. High resolution spatial dataset of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed. The bathymetry and topography database and the spatial dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the district are collated and utilized for tsunami numerical modeling and following vulnerability analysis. The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability assessment parameters in the district according to vulnerability and resilience are defined; and scored by implementation of a GIS based TVA with appropriate MCDA methods. The risk level is computed using tsunami intensity (level of flow depth from simulations) and TVA results at every location in Bakirkoy district. The preliminary results are presented and discussed

Preliminary Obtained Data from Borehole Geodetic Measurements in Marmara Region, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozener, H.; Aktug, B.; Karabulut, H.; Ergintav, S.; Dogru, A.; Yilmaz, O.; Turgut, B.; Ahiska, B.; Mencin, D.; Mattioli, G. S.

2014-12-01

Dense continuous GPS networks quantify the time-dependent deformation field of the earthquake cycle. However the strainmeters can capture signals with superior precision at local spatial scales, in particular in the short-period, from minutes to a month. Many relatively small-scale events (e.i. SSEs, creeps) have been successfully determined on the subduction zones. Istanbul located near the most active parts of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) has been monitored by different observing techniques such as seismic networks and continuous/survey-mode GPS networks for decades. However, it is still essential to observe deformation in a broad range of temporal and spatial scales (from seismology to geodesy and to geology). Borehole strainmeters are very sensitive to deformation in the range of less than a month. In this study, we present a new project, financially and technically supported by Istanbul Development Agency (ISTKA) and UNAVCO, respectively, which includes the installation of two borehole strainmeters are being deployed in European side of Istanbul in Marmara Region. Since these instruments can also respond to non-tectonic processes, it is necessary to have more instruments to increase spatial coherence and to have additional sensors to detect and model noise (such as barometric pressure, tides, or precipitation). The introduced monitoring system will provide significant insight about the creeping phenomenon and the possible SSE to our understanding of seismic hazards in active zones and possible precursors. Our long term objective is to build a borehole monitoring system in the region. By integrating various data obtained from borehole observations, we expect to get a better understanding of dynamics in the western NAF. In this presentation, we introduce data and ongoing analysis obtained with strainmeters.

Glacial - interglacial changes of northwest Pacific stratification, inferred from deep and shallow living radiolarians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hays, J. D.

2009-12-01

cold glacial northwest Pacific intermediate water promoted the southward spread of sea ice. This inference is supported by the near coincidence of the southern limit of deep-living species dominated glacial sediments and extensive ice rafting. It also explains nutrient depleted glacial northwest Pacific surface waters inferred from isotopic data.

Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission.

PubMed

Notz, Dirk; Stroeve, Julienne

2016-11-11

Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Because climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we used a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 square meters of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO 2 emission. On the basis of this sensitivity, Arctic sea ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 gigatons of CO 2 emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled transient climate response. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Holocene sea-level changes in the Falkland Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newton, Tom; Gehrels, Roland; Daley, Tim; Long, Antony; Bentley, Mike

2014-05-01

In many locations in the southern hemisphere, relative sea level (RSL) reached its maximum position during the middle Holocene. This highstand is used by models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to constrain the melt histories of the large ice sheets, particularly Antarctica. In this paper we present the first Holocene sea-level record from the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas), an archipelago located on the Patagonian continental shelf about 500 km east of mainland South America at a latitude of ca. 52 degrees. Unlike coastal locations in southernmost South America, Holocene sea-level data from the Falklands are not influenced by tectonics, local ice loading effects and large tidal ranges such that GIA and ice-ocean mass flux are the dominant drivers of RSL change. Our study site is a salt marsh located in Swan Inlet in East Falkland, around 50 km southwest of Stanley. This is the largest and best developed salt marsh in the Falkland Islands. Cores were collected in 2005 and 2013. Lithostratigraphic analyses were complemented by analyses of foraminifera, testate amoebae and diatoms to infer palaeoenvironments. The bedrock, a Permian black shale, is overlain by grey-brown organic salt-marsh clay, up to 90 cm thick, which, in a landward direction, is replaced by freshwater organic sediments. Overlying these units are medium-coarse sands with occasional pebbles, up to 115 cm thick, containing tidal flat foraminifera. The sandy unit is erosively overlain by a grey-brown organic salt-marsh peat which extends up to the present surface. Further away from the sea this unit is predominantly of freshwater origin. Based on 13 radiocarbon dates we infer that prior to ~9.5 ka sea level was several metres below present. Under rising sea levels a salt marsh developed which was suddenly drowned around 8.4 ka, synchronous with a sea-level jump known from northern hemisphere locations. Following the drowning, RSL rose to its maximum position around 7 ka, less than 0.5 m above

Timescales alter the inferred strength and temporal consistency of intraspecific diet specialization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Novak, Mark; Tinker, M. Tim

2015-01-01

Many populations consist of individuals that differ substantially in their diets. Quantification of the magnitude and temporal consistency of such intraspecific diet variation is needed to understand its importance, but the extent to which different approaches for doing so reflect instantaneous vs. time-aggregated measures of individual diets may bias inferences. We used direct observations of sea otter individuals (Enhydra lutris nereis) to assess how: (1) the timescale of sampling, (2) under-sampling, and (3) the incidence- vs. frequency-based consideration of prey species affect the inferred strength and consistency of intraspecific diet variation. Analyses of feeding observations aggregated over hourly to annual intervals revealed a substantial bias associated with time aggregation that decreases the inferred magnitude of specialization and increases the inferred consistency of individuals’ diets. Time aggregation also made estimates of specialization more sensitive to the consideration of prey frequency, which decreased estimates relative to the use of prey incidence; time aggregation did not affect the extent to which under-sampling contributed to its overestimation. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of studying intraspecific diet variation with an explicit consideration of time and thereby suggest guidelines for future empirical efforts. Failure to consider time will likely produce inconsistent predictions regarding the effects of intraspecific variation on predator–prey interactions.

Les interactions de la contrainte de Coulomb et le séisme du 17 août 1999 à Izmit en Turquie

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Geoffrey C. P.; Hubert-Ferrari, Aurélia; Nalbant, Süleyman S.; Meyer, Bertrand; Armijo, Rolando; Bowman, David

2001-11-01

At 00:02 GMT (03:02 local time) on 17 August, 1999 a magnitude 7.4 ( Ms) earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul causing extensive destruction. The event was expected and several scientists have published and attempted to publicize the danger. A paper on stress interactions for NW Turkey (J. Geophys. Res. 103 (1998) 24466-24469) concluded that "by combining the stress change map with the map of active faulting, likely locations for the occurrence of future earthquakes can be refined; faults in the Izmit Bay area, the western part of Biga Peninsula, the Saroz Gulf and a part of western Sea of Marmara must be regarded as posing a specific hazard". An extension of that study is described here. It is shown that the Izmit (1999) earthquake loaded faults both to the east and west of the Izmit rupture. About three months after the Izmit event an M 7.2 earthquake occurred with an epicenter at Duzce extending the Izmit rupture to the east. In the Marmara Sea, west of Izmit, faults have been loaded by between 1 and 5 bar; 5 to 30 % of typical earthquake stress drops in the region suggesting the likelihood of a future event. The risk of a major event on a fault depends not just on stress increases associated with an individual earthquake, but also on the longer-term earthquake history and on tectonic loading. The roles of both are examined over two time periods from 1900 to 1999 and 1700 to 1999. Whatever interpretation we place on the data we conclude that one or two events as great or greater than the recent one is likely to occur within the next few decades near to the northern coast of the Marmara Sea.

Spatiotemporal earthquake clusters along the North Anatolian fault zone offshore Istanbul

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bulut, Fatih; Ellsworth, William L.; Bohnhoff, Marco; Aktar, Mustafa; Dresen, Georg

2011-01-01

We investigate earthquakes with similar waveforms in order to characterize spatiotemporal microseismicity clusters within the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) in northwest Turkey along the transition between the 1999 ??zmit rupture zone and the Marmara Sea seismic gap. Earthquakes within distinct activity clusters are relocated with cross-correlation derived relative travel times using the double difference method. The spatiotemporal distribution of micro earthquakes within individual clusters is resolved with relative location accuracy comparable to or better than the source size. High-precision relative hypocenters define the geometry of individual fault patches, permitting a better understanding of fault kinematics and their role in local-scale seismotectonics along the region of interest. Temporal seismic sequences observed in the eastern Sea of Marmara region suggest progressive failure of mostly nonoverlapping areas on adjacent fault patches and systematic migration of microearthquakes within clusters during the progressive failure of neighboring fault patches. The temporal distributions of magnitudes as well as the number of events follow swarmlike behavior rather than a mainshock/aftershock pattern.

Influence of sea ice on Arctic precipitation

PubMed Central

Kopec, Ben G.; Feng, Xiahong; Michel, Fred A.; Posmentier, Eric S.

2016-01-01

Global climate is influenced by the Arctic hydrologic cycle, which is, in part, regulated by sea ice through its control on evaporation and precipitation. However, the quantitative link between precipitation and sea ice extent is poorly constrained. Here we present observational evidence for the response of precipitation to sea ice reduction and assess the sensitivity of the response. Changes in the proportion of moisture sourced from the Arctic with sea ice change in the Canadian Arctic and Greenland Sea regions over the past two decades are inferred from annually averaged deuterium excess (d-excess) measurements from six sites. Other influences on the Arctic hydrologic cycle, such as the strength of meridional transport, are assessed using the North Atlantic Oscillation index. We find that the independent, direct effect of sea ice on the increase of the percentage of Arctic sourced moisture (or Arctic moisture proportion, AMP) is 18.2 ± 4.6% and 10.8 ± 3.6%/100,000 km2 sea ice lost for each region, respectively, corresponding to increases of 10.9 ± 2.8% and 2.7 ± 1.1%/1 °C of warming in the vapor source regions. The moisture source changes likely result in increases of precipitation and changes in energy balance, creating significant uncertainty for climate predictions. PMID:26699509

Eolian depositional phases during the past 50 ka and inferred climate variability for the Pampean Sand Sea, western Pampas, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripaldi, Alfonsina; Forman, Steven L.

2016-05-01

The Pampean Sand Sea, which occurs from the Argentinian Pampas to the eastern Andean piedmont, hosts presently stabilized dune fields spanning the late Quaternary. This study integrates previous results and presents new geomorphic, stratigraphic, sedimentological, and chronologic data for nineteen >2 m-thick eolian successions for the San Luis paleo-dune field, western Pampas, to better constrain the depositional history. Six eolian depositional phases are identified spanning the past 50 ka, interposed with paleosols and/or bounded by erosive surfaces. Age control was from 61 OSL ages of small aliquots of quartz grains from eolian stratigraphic units. The inferred timing of eolian phases are at ca. 70 ± 10 yr, 190 ± 20 yr, 12 to 1 ka, 22 to 17 ka, 29 to 24 ka, and 40 to 32 ka. A maximum span for periods of pedogenesis at ca. 12 to 17 ka, 22 to 24 ka, and 29 to 32 ka was provided by bounding OSL ages, which broadly overlap with high stands of pluvial lakes and glacier advances in the central Andes. We infer that the added precipitation may reflect expansion of the Southern Hemisphere monsoon, associated with Northern Hemisphere Heinrich events, leading to episodes of significantly wetter conditions (>350 mm MAP) to at least 35° S. Most of the Holocene (12 ka to 0.8 ka) was characterized by sand sheet deposit under drier than present conditions (100-450 mm MAP), associated with Monte-type vegetation (shrub steppe). The latest two eolian depositional phases, occurred at ca. 190 and 70 yr ago, during the historic period with European settlement and are related to anthropogenic landscape disturbance, though the youngest phase was concomitant with 1930s drought. Wet conditions dominated since ca. AD 1970 with new lakes and rivers forming across this eolian terrain; an incongruous environmental response in reference to drier conditions for most of the Holocene.

Processing of SeaMARC swath sonar imagery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pratson, L.; Malinverno, A.; Edwards, M.

1990-05-01

Side-scan swath sonar systems have become an increasingly important means of mapping the sea floor. Two such systems are the deep-towed, high-resolution SeaMARC I sonar, which has a variable swath width of up to 5 km, and the shallow-towed, lower-resolution SeaMARC II sonar, which has a swath width of 10 km. The sea-floor imagery of acoustic backscatter output by the SeaMARC sonars is analogous to aerial photographs and airborne side-looking radar images of continental topography. Geologic interpretation of the sea-floor imagery is greatly facilitated by image processing. Image processing of the digital backscatter data involves removal of noise by medianmore » filtering, spatial filtering to remove sonar scans of anomalous intensity, across-track corrections to remove beam patterns caused by nonuniform response of the sonar transducers to changes in incident angle, and contrast enhancement by histogram equalization to maximize the available dynamic range. Correct geologic interpretation requires submarine structural fabrics to be displayed in their proper locations and orientations. Geographic projection of sea-floor imagery is achieved by merging the enhanced imagery with the sonar vehicle navigation and correcting for vehicle attitude. Co-registration of bathymetry with sonar imagery introduces sea-floor relief and permits the imagery to be displayed in three-dimensional perspectives, furthering the ability of the marine geologist to infer the processes shaping formerly hidden subsea terrains.« less

Phylogeography of the sandy beach amphipod Haustorioides japonicus along the Sea of Japan: Paleogeographical signatures of cryptic regional divergences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takada, Yoshitake; Sakuma, Kay; Fujii, Tetsuo; Kojima, Shigeaki

2018-01-01

Recent findings of genetic breaks within apparently continuous marine populations challenge the traditional vicariance paradigm in population genetics. Such "invisible" boundaries are sometimes associated with potential geographic barriers that have forced divergence of an ancestral population, habitat discontinuities, biogeographic disjunctions due to environmental gradients, or a combination of these factors. To explore the factors that influence the genetic population structure of apparently continuous populations along the Sea of Japan, the sandy beach amphipod Haustorioides japonicus was examined. We sampled a total of 300 individuals of H. japonicus from the coast of Japan, and obtained partial sequences of the mitochondrial COI gene. The sequences from 19 local populations were clustered into five groups (Northwestern Pacific, Northern, Central, Southern Sea of Japan, and East China Sea) based on a spatial genetic mixture analysis and a minimum-spanning network. AMOVA and pairwise Fst tests further supported the significant divergence of the five groups. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the relationship among the haplotypes of H. japonicus and outgroups, which inferred the northward range expansion of the species. A relaxed molecular-clock Bayesian analysis inferred the early-to middle-Pleistocene divergence of the populations. Among the five clusters, the Central Sea of Japan showed the highest values for genetic diversity indices indicating the existence of a relatively stable and large population there. The hypothesis is also supported by Bayesian Skyline Plots that showed sudden population expansion for all the clusters except for Central Sea of Japan. The present study shows genetic boundaries between the Sea of Japan and the neighboring seas, probably due to geographic isolation during the Pleistocene glacial periods. We further found divergence between the populations along the apparently continuous coast of the Sea of Japan. Historical changes in the

Air-sea heat exchange, an element of the water cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chahine, M. T.

1984-01-01

The distribution and variation of water vapor, clouds and precipitation are examined. Principal driving forces for these distributions are energy exchange and evaporation at the air-sea interface, which are also important elements of air-sea interaction studies. The overall aim of air-sea interaction studies is to quantitatively determine mass, momentum and energy fluxes, with the goal of understanding the mechanisms controlling them. The results of general circulation simulations indicate that the atmosphere in mid-latitudes responds to changes in the oceanic surface conditions in the tropics. This correlation reflects the strong interaction between tropical and mid-latitude conditions caused by the transport of heat and momentum from the tropics. Studies of air-sea exchanges involve a large number of physica, chemical and dynamical processes including heat flux, radiation, sea-surface temperature, precipitation, winds and ocean currents. The fluxes of latent heat are studied and the potential use of satellite data in determining them evaluated. Alternative ways of inferring heat fluxes will be considered.

Earthquake Swarm in Armutlu Peninsula, Eastern Marmara Region, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yavuz, Evrim; Çaka, Deniz; Tunç, Berna; Serkan Irmak, T.; Woith, Heiko; Cesca, Simone; Lühr, Birger-Gottfried; Barış, Şerif

2015-04-01

The most active fault system of Turkey is North Anatolian Fault Zone and caused two large earthquakes in 1999. These two earthquakes affected the eastern Marmara region destructively. Unbroken part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone crosses north of Armutlu Peninsula on east-west direction. This branch has been also located quite close to Istanbul known as a megacity with its high population, economic and social aspects. A new cluster of microseismic activity occurred in the direct vicinity southeastern of the Yalova Termal area. Activity started on August 2, 2014 with a series of micro events, and then on August 3, 2014 a local magnitude is 4.1 event occurred, more than 1000 in the followed until August 31, 2014. Thus we call this tentatively a swarm-like activity. Therefore, investigation of the micro-earthquake activity of the Armutlu Peninsula has become important to understand the relationship between the occurrence of micro-earthquakes and the tectonic structure of the region. For these reasons, Armutlu Network (ARNET), installed end of 2005 and equipped with currently 27 active seismic stations operating by Kocaeli University Earth and Space Sciences Research Center (ESSRC) and Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), is a very dense network tool able to record even micro-earthquakes in this region. In the 30 days period of August 02 to 31, 2014 Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) announced 120 local earthquakes ranging magnitudes between 0.7 and 4.1, but ARNET provided more than 1000 earthquakes for analyzes at the same time period. In this study, earthquakes of the swarm area and vicinity regions determined by ARNET were investigated. The focal mechanism of the August 03, 2014 22:22:42 (GMT) earthquake with local magnitude (Ml) 4.0 is obtained by the moment tensor solution. According to the solution, it discriminates a normal faulting with dextral component. The obtained focal mechanism solution is

Children's and adults' evaluation of the certainty of deductive inferences, inductive inferences, and guesses.

PubMed

Pillow, Bradford H

2002-01-01

Two experiments investigated kindergarten through fourth-grade children's and adults' (N = 128) ability to (1) evaluate the certainty of deductive inferences, inductive inferences, and guesses; and (2) explain the origins of inferential knowledge. When judging their own cognitive state, children in first grade and older rated deductive inferences as more certain than guesses; but when judging another person's knowledge, children did not distinguish valid inferences from invalid inferences and guesses until fourth grade. By third grade, children differentiated their own deductive inferences from inductive inferences and guesses, but only adults both differentiated deductive inferences from inductive inferences and differentiated inductive inferences from guesses. Children's recognition of their own inferences may contribute to the development of knowledge about cognitive processes, scientific reasoning, and a constructivist epistemology.

Two Sea-Level Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvin, C.

2008-12-01

"No place on the sandy ocean shores of the world has been shown to be eroding because of sea level rise." This statement appeared nearly 19 years ago in bold print at the top of the page in a brief article published in Shore and Beach (Galvin,1990). The term "sea level rise" was defined in 1990 as follows: "In this statement, "sea level rise" has the meaning that the average person on the street usually attaches to that term. That is, sea level is rising; not, as in some places like the Mississippi River delta, land level is sinking." While still a subject of controversy, it is now (2008) increasingly plausible (Tornqvist et al,2008) that damage from Hurricane Katrina was significantly worse on the Mississippi River delta because floodwaters exploited wetlands and levees whose elevations had been lowered by decades of compaction in the underlying soil. (1) "Sea level" commonly appears in the literature as "relative sea level rise", occurring that way in 711 publications between 1980 and 2009 (GeoRef database on 8 Sep 08). "Relative sea level rise" does not appear in the 2005 AGI Glossary. The nearest Glossary term is "relative change in sea level", but that term occurs in only 12 publications between 1980 and 2009. The Glossary defines this term in a sequence stratigraphy sense, which infers that "relative sea level rise" is the sum of bottom subsidence and eustatic sea level rise. In plain English, "relative sea level rise" means "water depth increase". For present day coastal environments, "relative sea level rise" is commonly used where eustatic sea level rise is less than subsidence, that is, where the magnitude of actual sea level rise is smaller than the magnitude of subsidence. In that situation, "relative sea level rise" misleads both the average person and the scientist who is not a coastal geologist. Thus, the first challenge is to abandon "relative sea level rise" in favor of "water depth increase", in order that the words accurately descibe what happens

Earthquake induced landslide hazard: a multidisciplinary field observatory in the Marmara SUPERSITE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigarré, Pascal

2014-05-01

Earthquake-triggered landslides have an increasing disastrous impact in seismic regions due to the fast growing urbanization and infrastructures. Just considering disasters from the last fifteen years, among which the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, these events generated tens of thousands of coseismic landslides. Those resulted in amazing death toll and considerable damages, affecting the regional landscape including its hydrological main features. Despite a strong impetus in research during past decades, knowledge on those geohazards is still fragmentary, while databases of high quality observational data are lacking. These phenomena call for further collaborative researches aiming eventually to enhance preparedness and crisis management. As one of the three SUPERSITE concept FP7 projects dealing with long term high level monitoring of major natural hazards at the European level, the MARSITE project gathers research groups in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed in the Sea of Marmara Region, one of the most densely populated parts of Europe and rated at high seismic risk level since the 1999 Izmit and Duzce devastating earthquakes. Besides the seismic threat, landslides in Turkey and in this region constitute an important source of loss. The 1999 Earthquake caused extensive landslides while tsunami effects were observed during the post-event surveys in several places along the coasts of the Izmit bay. The 6th Work Package of MARSITE project gathers 9 research groups to study earthquake-induced landslides focusing on two sub-regional areas of high interest. First, the Cekmece-Avcilar peninsula, located westwards of Istanbul, is a highly urbanized concentrated landslide prone area, showing high susceptibility to both rainfalls while affected by very significant seismic site effects. Second, the off-shore entrance of the Izmit Gulf, close to the termination of the surface rupture of the 1999 earthquake

Variation in winter diet of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears inferred from stable isotope analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bentzen, T.W.; Follmann, Erich H.; Amstrup, Steven C.; York, G.S.; Wooller, M.J.; O'Hara, T. M.

2007-01-01

Ringed seals (Phoca hispida Schreber, 1775 = Pusa hispida (Schreber, 1775)) and bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus (Erxleben, 1777)) represent the majority of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus Phipps, 1774) annual diet. However, remains of lower trophic level bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus L., 1758) are available in the southern Beaufort Sea and their dietary contribution to polar bears has been unknown. We used stable isotope (13C/12C, δ13C, 15N/14N, and δ15N) analysis to determine the diet composition of polar bears sampled along Alaska’s Beaufort Sea coast in March and April 2003 and 2004. The mean δ15N values of polar bear blood cells were 19.5‰ (SD = 0.7‰) in 2003 and 19.9‰ (SD = 0.7‰) in 2004. Mixing models indicated bowhead whales composed 11%–26% (95% CI) of the diets of sampled polar bears in 2003, and 0%–14% (95% CI) in 2004. This suggests significant variability in the proportion of lower trophic level prey in polar bear diets among individuals and between years. Polar bears depend on sea ice for hunting seals, and the temporal and spatial availabilities of sea ice are projected to decline. Consumption of low trophic level foods documented here suggests bears may increasingly scavenge such foods in the future.

The 14 month wind stressed residual circulation (pole tide) in the North Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oconnor, W. P.

1986-01-01

From published research it is known that a quasi-periodic 14 month atmospheric pressure oscillation of a few tenths of a millibar exists in the region of the North and Baltic Seas. At some time in the cycle the associated wind stress has a westerly component that drives a circulation in the North Sea. The results of a dynamical model and comparisons with several North Sea residual circulation studies show that a large sea level gradient results along the Dutch coast. It is this feature that has been referred to as the enhanced pole tide. The dynamical similarity of this pole tide in the North and Baltic Seas to the annual and seasonal wind forced circulations is considered. It is inferred that the large deviations of the pole tide from equilibrium at coastal stations are the result of this sea level set up forces by the 14 month wind stress cycle.

Historical Earthquake Scenarios and Effects on the Ancient City of İstanbul (A.D. 478 - 1999)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Şahin, Murat; Elitez, İrem; Özmen, Aybars; Yaltırak, Cenk

2016-04-01

Active fault mapping is one of the most important subject in the active tectonic studies. The consistency of the active fault maps with the reality is curial for the settlements and socio-economic conditions. The Marmara region is one of the precious area where the longest duration settlement and civilization are observed along a fault system. The Marmara Sea and its surrounding area are unique on the earth which has the remarkable history of 1500 years in non-instrumental period. Because, İstanbul was the capital city of both Byzantium and Ottoman Empire and the historical records of İstanbul are reliable for this environment such as A.D. 1509 earthquake known as 'little apocalypse'. Although the active faults of the Marmara Sea have studied and mapped by many researchers, there are only three different main fault model suggested for the Marmara Sea. These are single fault model (Le Pichon et al., 2001), pull-apart model (Armijo et al., 2005) and horsetail model (Yaltırak, 2002; 2015). Yaltırak (2015) grouped the 38 destructive historical earthquakes according to their felt area for these three fault models in the Marmara region. In this study we have modelled the Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI) of historical buildings and cross checked with damages on the related structure in order to investigate the consistency of fault pattern with historical earthquakes. In this study three-stage evaluation has been made. In the first stage, three models that differ from each other were prepared on a database in commercial ArcGIS software. Mw values were calculated for each segment according to their lengths, seismogenic depths and 18 mm/yr accumulation by using the equation of Kanamori (1977). In the second stage, the 1:25000-scale geological map of the ancient city of İstanbul was revised according to Vs30 data of the İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality. The exact location of the historical constructions in the İstanbul have been plotted by using non

Muddled or mixed? Inferring palaeoclimate from size distributions of deep-sea clastics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weltje, G. J.; Prins, M. A.

2003-04-01

One of the outstanding problems of palaeoclimate reconstruction from physico-chemical properties of terrigenous deep-sea sediments is the fact that most basin fills are mixtures of sediment populations derived from different sources and transported to the site of deposition by different mechanisms. Conventional approaches to palaeoclimate reconstruction from deep-sea sediments, which ignore this common fact, often fail to recognise the true significance of variations in sediment properties. We formulate a set of requirements that each proposed palaeoenvironmental indicator should fulfil, and focus on the intrinsic coupling between grain size and chemical composition. A critical review of past achievements in grain-size analysis is given to provide a starting point for a conceptual model of spatio-temporal grain-size variation in terms of dynamic populations. Each dynamic population results from a characteristic combination of production and transport mechanisms that corresponds to a distinct subpopulation in the data analysed. The mathematical-statistical equivalent of the conceptual model may be solved by means of the end-member modelling algorithm EMMA. Applications of the model to several ocean basins are discussed, as well as methods to examine the validity of the palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Deep-Sea Phylogeographic Structure Shaped by Paleoenvironmental Changes and Ongoing Ocean Currents Around the Sea of Japan in a Crangonid Shrimp, Argis lar.

PubMed

Fujita, Junta; Drumm, David T; Iguchi, Akira; Ueda, Yuji; Yamashita, Yuho; Ito, Masaki; Tominaga, Osamu; Kai, Yoshiaki; Ueno, Masahiro; Yamashita, Yoh

2017-10-01

The deep-sea crangonid shrimp, Argis lar, is a highly abundant species from the northern Pacific Ocean. We investigated its phylogeographic and demographic structure across the species' extensive range, using mitochondrial DNA sequence variation to evaluate the impact of deep-sea paleoenvironmental dynamics in the Sea of Japan on population histories. The haplotype network detected three distinct lineages with allopatric isolation, which roughly corresponded to the Sea of Japan (Lineage A), the northwestern Pacific off the Japanese Archipelago (Lineage B), and the Bering Sea/Gulf of Alaska (Lineage C). Lineage A showed relatively low haplotype and nucleotide diversity, a significantly negative value of Tajima's D, and a star-shaped network, suggesting that anoxic bottom-water in the Sea of Japan over the last glacial period may have brought about a reduction in the Sea of Japan population. Furthermore, unexpectedly, the distributions of Lineage A and B were closely related to the pathways of the two ocean currents, especially along the Sanriku Coast. This result indicated that A. lar could disperse across shallow straits through the ocean current, despite their deep-sea adult habitat. Bayesian inference of divergence time revealed that A. lar separated into three lineages approximately 1 million years before present (BP) in the Pleistocene, and then had been influenced by deep-sea paleoenvironmental change in the Sea of Japan during the last glacial period, followed by a more recent larval dispersal with the ocean current since ca. 6 kilo years BP.

Sea-Ice Freeboard Retrieval Using Digital Photon-Counting Laser Altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farrell, Sinead L.; Brunt, Kelly M.; Ruth, Julia M.; Kuhn, John M.; Connor, Laurence N.; Walsh, Kaitlin M.

2015-01-01

Airborne and spaceborne altimeters provide measurements of sea-ice elevation, from which sea-ice freeboard and thickness may be derived. Observations of the Arctic ice pack by satellite altimeters indicate a significant decline in ice thickness, and volume, over the last decade. NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) is a next-generation laser altimeter designed to continue key sea-ice observations through the end of this decade. An airborne simulator for ICESat-2, the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL), has been deployed to gather pre-launch data for mission development. We present an analysis of MABEL data gathered over sea ice in the Greenland Sea and assess the capabilities of photon-counting techniques for sea-ice freeboard retrieval. We compare freeboard estimates in the marginal ice zone derived from MABEL photon-counting data with coincident data collected by a conventional airborne laser altimeter. We find that freeboard estimates agree to within 0.03m in the areas where sea-ice floes were interspersed with wide leads, and to within 0.07m elsewhere. MABEL data may also be used to infer sea-ice thickness, and when compared with coincident but independent ice thickness estimates, MABEL ice thicknesses agreed to within 0.65m or better.

The effect of regional sea level atmospheric pressure on sea level variations at globally distributed tide gauge stations with long records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iz, H. Bâki

2018-05-01

This study provides additional information about the impact of atmospheric pressure on sea level variations. The observed regularity in sea level atmospheric pressure depends mainly on the latitude and verified to be dominantly random closer to the equator. It was demonstrated that almost all the annual and semiannual sea level variations at 27 globally distributed tide gauge stations can be attributed to the regional/local atmospheric forcing as an inverted barometric effect. Statistically significant non-linearities were detected in the regional atmospheric pressure series, which in turn impacted other sea level variations as compounders in tandem with the lunar nodal forcing, generating lunar sub-harmonics with multidecadal periods. It was shown that random component of regional atmospheric pressure tends to cluster at monthly intervals. The clusters are likely to be caused by the intraannual seasonal atmospheric temperature changes,which may also act as random beats in generating sub-harmonics observed in sea level changes as another mechanism. This study also affirmed that there are no statistically significant secular trends in the progression of regional atmospheric pressures, hence there was no contribution to the sea level trends during the 20th century by the atmospheric pressure.Meanwhile, the estimated nonuniform scale factors of the inverted barometer effects suggest that the sea level atmospheric pressure will bias the sea level trends inferred from satellite altimetry measurements if their impact is accounted for as corrections without proper scaling.

Inference or Observation?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finson, Kevin D.

2010-01-01

Learning about what inferences are, and what a good inference is, will help students become more scientifically literate and better understand the nature of science in inquiry. Students in K-4 should be able to give explanations about what they investigate (NSTA 1997) and that includes doing so through inferring. This article provides some tips…

Inferring episodic atmospheric iron fluxes in the Western South Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evangelista, Heitor; Maldonado, Juan; dos Santos, Elaine A.; Godoi, Ricardo H. M.; Garcia, Carlos A. E.; Garcia, Virginia M. T.; Jonhson, Erling; Dias da Cunha, Kenya; Leite, Carlos Barros; Van Grieken, René; Van Meel, Katleen; Makarovska, Yaroslava; Gaiero, Diego M.

2010-02-01

Iron (Fe) and other trace elements such as Zn, Mn, Ni and Cu are known as key-factors in marine biogeochemical cycles. It is believed that ocean primary productivity blooms in iron deficient regions can be triggered by iron in aeolian dust. Up to now, scarce aerosol elemental composition, based on measurements over sea at the Western South Atlantic (WSA), exist. An association between the Patagonian semi-desert dust/Fe and chlorophyll-a variability at the Argentinean continental shelf is essentially inferred from models. We present here experimental data of Fe enriched aerosols over the WSA between latitudes 22°S-62°S, during 4 oceanographic campaigns between 2002 and 2005. These data allowed inferring the atmospheric Fe flux onto different latitudinal bands which varied from 30.4 to 1688 nmolFe m -2 day -1 (October 29th-November 15th, 2003); 5.83-1586 nmolFe m -2 day -1 (February 15th-March 6th, 2004) and 4.73-586 nmolFe m -2 day -1(October 21st-November 5th, 2005).

Ocean Winds and Turbulent Air-Sea Fluxes Inferred From Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bourassa, Mark A.; Gille, Sarah T.; Jackson, Daren L.; Roberts, J. Brent; Wick, Gary A.

2010-01-01

Air-sea turbulent fluxes determine the exchange of momentum, heat, freshwater, and gas between the atmosphere and ocean. These exchange processes are critical to a broad range of research questions spanning length scales from meters to thousands of kilometers and time scales from hours to decades. Examples are discussed (section 2). The estimation of surface turbulent fluxes from satellite is challenging and fraught with considerable errors (section 3); however, recent developments in retrievals (section 3) will greatly reduce these errors. Goals for the future observing system are summarized in section 4. Surface fluxes are defined as the rate per unit area at which something (e.g., momentum, energy, moisture, or CO Z ) is transferred across the air/sea interface. Wind- and buoyancy-driven surface fluxes are called surface turbulent fluxes because the mixing and transport are due to turbulence. Examples of nonturbulent processes are radiative fluxes (e.g., solar radiation) and precipitation (Schmitt et al., 2010). Turbulent fluxes are strongly dependent on wind speed; therefore, observations of wind speed are critical for the calculation of all turbulent surface fluxes. Wind stress, the vertical transport of horizontal momentum, also depends on wind direction. Stress is very important for many ocean processes, including upper ocean currents (Dohan and Maximenko, 2010) and deep ocean currents (Lee et al., 2010). On short time scales, this horizontal transport is usually small compared to surface fluxes. For long-term processes, transport can be very important but again is usually small compared to surface fluxes.

Identification of new deep sea sinuous channels in the eastern Arabian Sea.

PubMed

Mishra, Ravi; Pandey, D K; Ramesh, Prerna; Clift, Peter D

2016-01-01

Deep sea channel systems are recognized in most submarine fans worldwide as well as in the geological record. The Indus Fan is the second largest modern submarine fan, having a well-developed active canyon and deep sea channel system. Previous studies from the upper Indus Fan have reported several active channel systems. In the present study, deep sea channel systems were identified within the middle Indus Fan using high resolution multibeam bathymetric data. Prominent morphological features within the survey block include the Raman Seamount and Laxmi Ridge. The origin of the newly discovered channels in the middle fan has been inferred using medium resolution satellite bathymetry data. Interpretation of new data shows that the highly sinuous deep sea channel systems also extend to the east of Laxmi Ridge, as well as to the west of Laxmi Ridge, as previously reported. A decrease in sinuosity southward can be attributed to the morphological constraints imposed by the elevated features. These findings have significance in determining the pathways for active sediment transport systems, as well as their source characterization. The geometry suggests a series of punctuated avulsion events leading to the present array of disconnected channels. Such channels have affected the Laxmi Basin since the Pliocene and are responsible for reworking older fan sediments, resulting in loss of the original erosional signature supplied from the river mouth. This implies that distal fan sediments have experienced significant signal shredding and may not represent the erosion and weathering conditions within the onshore basin at the time of sedimentation.

Variations of heat transport in the northwestern Pacific marginal seas inferred from high-resolution reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Gwang-Ho; Cho, Yang-Ki; Choi, Byoung-Ju

2014-02-01

High-resolution reanalysis of heat transport in the northwestern Pacific marginal seas was conducted for the period January 1980-December 2009 using ensemble Kalman filter. An ocean circulation model with a grid of 0.1 × 0.1° horizontal resolution and 20 vertical levels was used. Atmospheric forcing data from daily European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts were used in the ocean model. The assimilated data for the reanalysis were based on available observations of hydrographic profiles, including field surveys and Argo float and satellite-observed sea-surface temperature data. This study focused on mean and temporal variations in oceanic heat transport within the major straits among the marginal seas over 30 years. The mean heat transport in the Korea/Tsushima Strait and onshore transport across the shelf break in the East China Sea (ECS), Taiwan Strait, Tsugaru Strait, and Soya Strait were 182, 123, 82, 100, and 34 × 1012 W, respectively. The long-term trends in heat transport through the Korea/Tsushima Strait and Tsugaru Strait and onshore transport across the shelf break of the ECS were increasing, whereas the trend in heat transport through the Taiwan Strait was decreasing. There was little long-term change in heat transport in the Soya Strait. These long-term changes in heat transport through the Korea/Tsushima Strait, across the shelf of the ECS, and through the Taiwan Strait may be related to increased northeasterly wind stress in the ECS, which drives Ekman transport onto the shelf across the shelf break.

Entropic Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caticha, Ariel

2011-03-01

In this tutorial we review the essential arguments behing entropic inference. We focus on the epistemological notion of information and its relation to the Bayesian beliefs of rational agents. The problem of updating from a prior to a posterior probability distribution is tackled through an eliminative induction process that singles out the logarithmic relative entropy as the unique tool for inference. The resulting method of Maximum relative Entropy (ME), includes as special cases both MaxEnt and Bayes' rule, and therefore unifies the two themes of these workshops—the Maximum Entropy and the Bayesian methods—into a single general inference scheme.

The Dimensionality of Inference Making: Are Local and Global Inferences Distinguishable?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muijselaar, Marloes M. L.

2018-01-01

We investigated the dimensionality of inference making in samples of 4- to 9-year-olds (Ns = 416-783) to determine if local and global coherence inferences could be distinguished. In addition, we examined the validity of our experimenter-developed inference measure by comparing with three additional measures of listening comprehension. Multitrait,…

Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice.

PubMed

Regehr, Eric V; Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Amstrup, Steven C; Stirling, Ian

2010-01-01

1. Observed and predicted declines in Arctic sea ice have raised concerns about marine mammals. In May 2008, the US Fish and Wildlife Service listed polar bears (Ursus maritimus) - one of the most ice-dependent marine mammals - as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. 2. We evaluated the effects of sea ice conditions on vital rates (survival and breeding probabilities) for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Although sea ice declines in this and other regions of the polar basin have been among the greatest in the Arctic, to date population-level effects of sea ice loss on polar bears have only been identified in western Hudson Bay, near the southern limit of the species' range. 3. We estimated vital rates using multistate capture-recapture models that classified individuals by sex, age and reproductive category. We used multimodel inference to evaluate a range of statistical models, all of which were structurally based on the polar bear life cycle. We estimated parameters by model averaging, and developed a parametric bootstrap procedure to quantify parameter uncertainty. 4. In the most supported models, polar bear survival declined with an increasing number of days per year that waters over the continental shelf were ice free. In 2001-2003, the ice-free period was relatively short (mean 101 days) and adult female survival was high (0.96-0.99, depending on reproductive state). In 2004 and 2005, the ice-free period was longer (mean 135 days) and adult female survival was low (0.73-0.79, depending on reproductive state). Breeding rates and cub litter survival also declined with increasing duration of the ice-free period. Confidence intervals on vital rate estimates were wide. 5. The effects of sea ice loss on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea may apply to polar bear populations in other portions of the polar basin that have similar sea ice dynamics and have experienced similar, or more severe, sea ice declines. Our findings therefore are

Self-enforcing Private Inference Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yanjiang; Li, Yingjiu; Weng, Jian; Zhou, Jianying; Bao, Feng

Private inference control enables simultaneous enforcement of inference control and protection of users' query privacy. Private inference control is a useful tool for database applications, especially when users are increasingly concerned about individual privacy nowadays. However, protection of query privacy on top of inference control is a double-edged sword: without letting the database server know the content of user queries, users can easily launch DoS attacks. To assuage DoS attacks in private inference control, we propose the concept of self-enforcing private inference control, whose intuition is to force users to only make inference-free queries by enforcing inference control themselves; otherwise, penalty will inflict upon the violating users.

More than one kind of inference: re-examining what's learned in feature inference and classification.

PubMed

Sweller, Naomi; Hayes, Brett K

2010-08-01

Three studies examined how task demands that impact on attention to typical or atypical category features shape the category representations formed through classification learning and inference learning. During training categories were learned via exemplar classification or by inferring missing exemplar features. In the latter condition inferences were made about missing typical features alone (typical feature inference) or about both missing typical and atypical features (mixed feature inference). Classification and mixed feature inference led to the incorporation of typical and atypical features into category representations, with both kinds of features influencing inferences about familiar (Experiments 1 and 2) and novel (Experiment 3) test items. Those in the typical inference condition focused primarily on typical features. Together with formal modelling, these results challenge previous accounts that have characterized inference learning as producing a focus on typical category features. The results show that two different kinds of inference learning are possible and that these are subserved by different kinds of category representations.

Perceptual inference.

PubMed

Aggelopoulos, Nikolaos C

2015-08-01

Perceptual inference refers to the ability to infer sensory stimuli from predictions that result from internal neural representations built through prior experience. Methods of Bayesian statistical inference and decision theory model cognition adequately by using error sensing either in guiding action or in "generative" models that predict the sensory information. In this framework, perception can be seen as a process qualitatively distinct from sensation, a process of information evaluation using previously acquired and stored representations (memories) that is guided by sensory feedback. The stored representations can be utilised as internal models of sensory stimuli enabling long term associations, for example in operant conditioning. Evidence for perceptual inference is contributed by such phenomena as the cortical co-localisation of object perception with object memory, the response invariance in the responses of some neurons to variations in the stimulus, as well as from situations in which perception can be dissociated from sensation. In the context of perceptual inference, sensory areas of the cerebral cortex that have been facilitated by a priming signal may be regarded as comparators in a closed feedback loop, similar to the better known motor reflexes in the sensorimotor system. The adult cerebral cortex can be regarded as similar to a servomechanism, in using sensory feedback to correct internal models, producing predictions of the outside world on the basis of past experience. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal dependence on sea ice algae in the Chukchi Sea, Arctic Ocean, inferred from bivalve stable isotopic composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, H. M.; Black, B.; Dunton, K. H.; von Biela, V. R.

2017-12-01

The Chukchi Sea is one of the most productive Arctic seas in the world. Around 10% of its net primary production originates from sea ice algae, much of which falls ungrazed to a relatively shallow (40-50m) shelf. The chlorophyll a derived from sinking ice algae is thought to supports a robust macrobenthic faunal community, dominated by bivalves, which in turn supports higher trophic organisms such as Pacific walrus (Odibenus rosmarus divergens), and bearded seal (Erignathus barbatus). However, recent reductions in ice extent and thickness could shift primary production from under-ice to open-water environment, thus reducing ice algal production and delivery to benthic biota. We used stable isotope analyses on benthic bivalve samples, collected in summer between 2002 and 2015, to identify contributions of ice algal production to benthic organisms and track their spatial and temporal variations. Ice algae contributions were indicated by δ13C values in bivalves, as ice algae are isotopically heavy compared to phytoplankton and would be reflected in consumers. This 14-yr period was marked by an 8%, decrease in Arctic ice extent, which was especially pronounced and spatially variable in the Chukchi Sea. We examined variability in the δ13C values in the common bivalves Astarte spp., Ennucula tenuis and Macoma spp. over space and time using one-way ANOVAs with Bonferroni correction to consider the potential for variation in ice algae contributions. All bivalve δ13C values were within a range (-21.84‰ to -17.62‰) that suggests some ice algal contribution. Among stations, E. tenuis and Astarte spp. did not significantly differ in their individual δ13C values. In contrast, Macoma spp. had significantly enriched δ13C values at one station south of Point Hope (δ13C = -17.75‰, F5,8 = 1.211, P < 0.05) in 2015. There were no significant (P > 0.05) differences in δ13C values from year to year for samples pooled across stations within a taxon. As the only taxon

Radioactivity measurements in moss (Hypnum cupressiforme) and lichen (Cladonia rangiformis) samples collected from Marmara region of Turkey.

PubMed

Belivermiş, Murat; Cotuk, Yavuz

2010-11-01

The present study was conducted to compare the (137)Cs, (40)K, (232)Th, and (238)U activity concentrations in epigeic moss (Hypnum cupressiforme) and lichen (Cladonia rangiformis). The activity levels in 37 moss and 38 lichen samples collected from the Marmara region of Turkey were measured using a gamma spectrometer equipped with a high purity germanium (HPGe) detector. The activity concentrations of (137)Cs, (40)K, (232)Th, and (238)U in the moss samples were found to be in the range of 0.36-8.13, 17.1-181.1, 1.51-6.17, and 0.87-6.70 Bq kg(-1) respectively, while these values were below detection limit (BDL)-4.32, 16.6-240.0, 1.32-6.47, and BDL-3.57 Bq kg(-1) respectively in lichen. The average moss/lichen activity ratios of (137)Cs, (40)K, (232)Th, and (238)U were found to be 1.32 +/- 0.57, 2.79 +/- 1.67, 2.11 +/- 0.82, and 2.19 +/- 1.02, respectively. Very low (137)Cs concentrations were observed in moss and lichen samples compared to soil samples collected from the same locations in a previous study. Seasonal variations of the measured radionuclide activities were also examined in the three sampling stations.

Nudging the Arctic Ocean to quantify Arctic sea ice feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dekker, Evelien; Severijns, Camiel; Bintanja, Richard

2017-04-01

It is well-established that the Arctic is warming 2 to 3 time faster than rest of the planet. One of the great uncertainties in climate research is related to what extent sea ice feedbacks amplify this (seasonally varying) Arctic warming. Earlier studies have analyzed existing climate model output using correlations and energy budget considerations in order to quantify sea ice feedbacks through indirect methods. From these analyses it is regularly inferred that sea ice likely plays an important role, but details remain obscure. Here we will take a different and a more direct approach: we will keep the sea ice constant in a sensitivity simulation, using a state-of -the-art climate model (EC-Earth), applying a technique that has never been attempted before. This experimental technique involves nudging the temperature and salinity of the ocean surface (and possibly some layers below to maintain the vertical structure and mixing) to a predefined prescribed state. When strongly nudged to existing (seasonally-varying) sea surface temperatures, ocean salinity and temperature, we force the sea ice to remain in regions/seasons where it is located in the prescribed state, despite the changing climate. Once we obtain fixed' sea ice, we will run a future scenario, for instance 2 x CO2 with and without prescribed sea ice, with the difference between these runs providing a measure as to what extent sea ice contributes to Arctic warming, including the seasonal and geographical imprint of the effects.

Fatty acid and stable isotope characteristics of sea ice and pelagic particulate organic matter in the Bering Sea: tools for estimating sea ice algal contribution to Arctic food web production.

PubMed

Wang, Shiway W; Budge, Suzanne M; Gradinger, Rolf R; Iken, Katrin; Wooller, Matthew J

2014-03-01

We determined fatty acid (FA) profiles and carbon stable isotopic composition of individual FAs (δ(13)CFA values) from sea ice particulate organic matter (i-POM) and pelagic POM (p-POM) in the Bering Sea during maximum ice extent, ice melt, and ice-free conditions in 2010. Based on FA biomarkers, differences in relative composition of diatoms, dinoflagellates, and bacteria were inferred for i-POM versus p-POM and for seasonal succession stages in p-POM. Proportions of diatom markers were higher in i-POM (16:4n-1, 6.6-8.7%; 20:5n-3, 19.6-25.9%) than in p-POM (16:4n-1, 1.2-4.0%; 20:5n-3, 5.5-14.0%). The dinoflagellate marker 22:6n-3/20:5n-3 was highest in p-POM. Bacterial FA concentration was higher in the bottom 1 cm of sea ice (14-245 μg L(-1)) than in the water column (0.6-1.7 μg L(-1)). Many i-POM δ(13)C(FA) values were higher (up to ~10‰) than those of p-POM, and i-POM δ(13)C(FA) values increased with day length. The higher i-POM δ(13)C(FA) values are most likely related to the reduced dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) availability within the semi-closed sea ice brine channel system. Based on a modified Rayleigh equation, the fraction of sea ice DIC fixed in i-POM ranged from 12 to 73%, implying that carbon was not limiting for primary productivity in the sympagic habitat. These differences in FA composition and δ(13)C(FA) values between i-POM and p-POM will aid efforts to track the proportional contribution of sea ice algal carbon to higher trophic levels in the Bering Sea and likely other Arctic seas.

Eddy covariance measurements of sea spray particles over the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norris, S. J.; Brooks, I. M.; de Leeuw, G.; Smith, M. H.; Moerman, M.; Lingard, J. J. N.

2008-02-01

Most estimates of sea spray aerosol source functions have used indirect means to infer the rate of production as a function of wind speed. Only recently has the technology become available to make high frequency measurements of aerosol spectra suitable for direct eddy correlation determination of the sea spray particle flux. This was accomplished in this study by combining a newly developed fast aerosol particle counter with an ultrasonic anemometer which allowed for eddy covariance measurements of size-segregated particle fluxes. The aerosol instrument is the Compact Lightweight Aerosol Spectrometer Probe (CLASP) - capable of measuring 8-channel size spectra for mean radii between 0.15 and 3.5 µm at 10 Hz. The first successful measurements were made during the Waves, Air Sea Fluxes, Aerosol and Bubbles (WASFAB) field campaign in October 2005 in Duck (NC, USA). The method and initial results are presented and comparisons are made with recent sea spray source functions from the literature.

Genome-Wide SNP Discovery, Genotyping and Their Preliminary Applications for Population Genetic Inference in Spotted Sea Bass (Lateolabrax maculatus)

PubMed Central

Wang, Juan; Xue, Dong-Xiu; Zhang, Bai-Dong; Li, Yu-Long; Liu, Bing-Jian; Liu, Jin-Xian

2016-01-01

Next-generation sequencing and the collection of genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) allow identifying fine-scale population genetic structure and genomic regions under selection. The spotted sea bass (Lateolabrax maculatus) is a non-model species of ecological and commercial importance and widely distributed in northwestern Pacific. A total of 22 648 SNPs was discovered across the genome of L. maculatus by paired-end sequencing of restriction-site associated DNA (RAD-PE) for 30 individuals from two populations. The nucleotide diversity (π) for each population was 0.0028±0.0001 in Dandong and 0.0018±0.0001 in Beihai, respectively. Shallow but significant genetic differentiation was detected between the two populations analyzed by using both the whole data set (FST = 0.0550, P < 0.001) and the putatively neutral SNPs (FST = 0.0347, P < 0.001). However, the two populations were highly differentiated based on the putatively adaptive SNPs (FST = 0.6929, P < 0.001). Moreover, a total of 356 SNPs representing 298 unique loci were detected as outliers putatively under divergent selection by FST-based outlier tests as implemented in BAYESCAN and LOSITAN. Functional annotation of the contigs containing putatively adaptive SNPs yielded hits for 22 of 55 (40%) significant BLASTX matches. Candidate genes for local selection constituted a wide array of functions, including binding, catalytic and metabolic activities, etc. The analyses with the SNPs developed in the present study highlighted the importance of genome-wide genetic variation for inference of population structure and local adaptation in L. maculatus. PMID:27336696

Genome-Wide SNP Discovery, Genotyping and Their Preliminary Applications for Population Genetic Inference in Spotted Sea Bass (Lateolabrax maculatus).

PubMed

Wang, Juan; Xue, Dong-Xiu; Zhang, Bai-Dong; Li, Yu-Long; Liu, Bing-Jian; Liu, Jin-Xian

2016-01-01

Next-generation sequencing and the collection of genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) allow identifying fine-scale population genetic structure and genomic regions under selection. The spotted sea bass (Lateolabrax maculatus) is a non-model species of ecological and commercial importance and widely distributed in northwestern Pacific. A total of 22 648 SNPs was discovered across the genome of L. maculatus by paired-end sequencing of restriction-site associated DNA (RAD-PE) for 30 individuals from two populations. The nucleotide diversity (π) for each population was 0.0028±0.0001 in Dandong and 0.0018±0.0001 in Beihai, respectively. Shallow but significant genetic differentiation was detected between the two populations analyzed by using both the whole data set (FST = 0.0550, P < 0.001) and the putatively neutral SNPs (FST = 0.0347, P < 0.001). However, the two populations were highly differentiated based on the putatively adaptive SNPs (FST = 0.6929, P < 0.001). Moreover, a total of 356 SNPs representing 298 unique loci were detected as outliers putatively under divergent selection by FST-based outlier tests as implemented in BAYESCAN and LOSITAN. Functional annotation of the contigs containing putatively adaptive SNPs yielded hits for 22 of 55 (40%) significant BLASTX matches. Candidate genes for local selection constituted a wide array of functions, including binding, catalytic and metabolic activities, etc. The analyses with the SNPs developed in the present study highlighted the importance of genome-wide genetic variation for inference of population structure and local adaptation in L. maculatus.

Earth Observation

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-08-09

ISS032-E-017547 (9 Aug. 2012) --- A nighttime view of Istanbul, Turkey is featured in this image photographed by an Expedition 32 crew member on the International Space Station. Most of Istanbul?s Asian suburbs (right) appear in this night view from the space station, but only about half the area of the city on the European side (left) can be seen. The margins of the metropolitan area are clearly visible at night, more so than in daylight images. The Bosporus strait (also spelled Bosphorus) (center left) famously separates the two halves of the city, and links the small Sea of Marmara (and the Mediterranean Sea to its south) to the Black Sea (indistinguishable in this night view, top right). The strait is 31 kilometers long, most of which is visible in this view. The Bosporus is a very busy waterway, with larger ships passing to and from the Black Sea competing with numerous ferries that cross between the two halves of the city. Apart from the dark Sea of Marmara (lower margin of the image), the other large dark areas are all wooded hills which provide open spaces for the densely populated city of Istanbul ? one of the largest in Europe with 13.5 million inhabitants. The old city occupies the prominent point at the entrance to the strait. Major traffic arteries are the brighter lines crossing the metropolitan area, and also mark all the shorelines. The First Bosporus Bridge and Second Bridge (also known as the Fatih Sultan Mehmet Bridge) can be seen spanning the strait. The brilliant lights of both international airports serving the region also stand out at lower left and lower right.

Optimal inference with suboptimal models: Addiction and active Bayesian inference

PubMed Central

Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H.B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Wurst, Friedrich; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

2015-01-01

When casting behaviour as active (Bayesian) inference, optimal inference is defined with respect to an agent’s beliefs – based on its generative model of the world. This contrasts with normative accounts of choice behaviour, in which optimal actions are considered in relation to the true structure of the environment – as opposed to the agent’s beliefs about worldly states (or the task). This distinction shifts an understanding of suboptimal or pathological behaviour away from aberrant inference as such, to understanding the prior beliefs of a subject that cause them to behave less ‘optimally’ than our prior beliefs suggest they should behave. Put simply, suboptimal or pathological behaviour does not speak against understanding behaviour in terms of (Bayes optimal) inference, but rather calls for a more refined understanding of the subject’s generative model upon which their (optimal) Bayesian inference is based. Here, we discuss this fundamental distinction and its implications for understanding optimality, bounded rationality and pathological (choice) behaviour. We illustrate our argument using addictive choice behaviour in a recently described ‘limited offer’ task. Our simulations of pathological choices and addictive behaviour also generate some clear hypotheses, which we hope to pursue in ongoing empirical work. PMID:25561321

The Hygroscopicity Parameter of Marine Organics in Sea Spray Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyer, M.; Chang, R. Y. W.

2015-12-01

The effects of aerosols on climate are poorly understood, specifically with respect to their influence on cloud properties. Since oceans cover >70% of Earth's surface, sea spray aerosols (SSA), which act efficiently as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), may have important implications on Earth's radiation budget. Surface active organic species readily accumulate in the sea surface microlayer (SML), located at the ocean-atmosphere interface, and transfer onto nascent SSA. While it is understood that SSA are commonly enriched with organics, the resulting effect of the organic content on CCN activation remains unresolved. The hygroscopicity parameter, kappa (k), allows for the cloud nucleating properties of individual components to be predicted in particles of mixed composition; however, most studies typically infer k from ambient measurements without assessing the contribution of the individual components to the overall k. In this study, a method for quantifying the cloud nucleating properties of the organic species in surface seawater using k-Kohler theory is proposed. Ambient SML and bulk water samples will be collected and atomized to generate particles such that the overall k can be inferred from CCN measurements. The inorganic and organic components will be quantified, and the organic component will be separated so that the hygroscopicity of only the organic constituents can be determined. By comparing the inferred k values for the samples before and after removal of the inorganic component, the hygroscopicity of the organic constituents alone can be calculated, providing insight on the effect of organic species on CCN activation in SSA.

40Ar-39Ar Age Constraints on Volcanism and Tectonism in the Terror Rift of the Ross Sea, Antarctica

USGS Publications Warehouse

2007-01-01

Volcanic sills and dikes inferred from seismic reflection profiles and geophysical studies of the Ross Sea are thought to be related to the rift basins in the region, and their emplacement to be coeval with extension. However, lack of precise geochronology in the Terror Rift of the Ross Sea region has left these inferred relationships poorly constrained and has hindered neotectonic studies, because of the large temporal gaps between seismic reflectors of known ages. New 40Ar/39Ar geochronology presented here for submarine volcanic rocks provides better age constraints for neotectonic interpretations within the Terror Rift. Several samples from seamounts yielded young ages between 156 ± 21 and 122 ± 26 Ka. These ages support interpretations that extension within the Terror Rift was active at least through the Pleistocene. Three evenly spaced samples from the lowermost 100 m of Franklin Island range in age from 3.28 ± 0.04 to 3.73 ± 0.05 Ma. These age determinations demonstrate that construction of a small volcanic edifice such as Franklin Island took at least several hundred thousand years, and therefore that much larger ones in the Erebus Volcanic Province are likely to have taken considerably longer than previously inferred. This warrants caution in applying a limited number of age determinations to define the absolute ages of events in the Ross Sea region

Sarcocysts of an unidentified species of Sarcocystis in the sea otter (Enhydra lutris)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dubey, J.P.; Lindsay, D.S.; Rosenthal, B.M.; Thomas, N.J.

2003-01-01

The number of Sarcocystis species that infect sea otters (Enhydra lutris) is unknown. Sea otter tissues were recently shown to harbor sarcocysts of S. neurona and of unidentified species of Sarcocystis. Whereas sarcocysts of S. neurona have walls 1a??3 I?m thick with type 9 villar protrusions, ultrastructure of a distinct thin-walled sarcocyst (0.5a??0.7 I?m thick) lacking villar protrusions, but instead exhibiting minute type 1 undulations on the sarcocyst wall, is described in this report. Parasites characterized from a sea otter infection were inferred to be related to, but distinct from, other species belonging to Sarcocystis, based on sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of a portion of the beta subunit of the plastid-encoded RNA polymerase gene.

Perspectives of methods of laser monitoring of the atmosphere and sea surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pashayev, Arif; Tunaboylu, Bahadir; Usta, Metin; Sadixov, Ilham; Allahverdiyev, Kerim

2016-01-01

Laser monitoring (remote sensing) may be considered as the science of collecting and interpreting information about the atmosphere, earth and sea using sensors on earth, on platforms in our atmosphere (airplanes, balloons) or in space (satellites) without being in direct physical contact with them. Remote sensing by LIDARs (Light Identification Detection and Ranging) has wide applications as technique to probe the Earth's atmosphere, ocean and land surfaces. LIDARs are widely used to get knowledge of spatial and temporal variations in meteorological quantities (e.g. temperature, humidity, clouds and aerosol properties) and to monitor the changes in these quantities on different timescales. Subject of the present work is quite wide. It is rather difficult to perform analysis and to provide full knowledge about existing information. In the present work, in addition to the literature data, the information will be provided also about KA-09 aerosol LIDAR developed at the Marmara Research Centre of TÜBITAK (Turkish Scientific and technological Research Council) and also about KA-14 LIDAR developed at the National Aviation Academy of Azerbaijan for remote sensing of contaminations on water surfaces taking place during oil-gas production. The main goal of this paper is to give students insight in different remote sensing instruments and techniques (including their perspectives) that are used for the derivation of meteorological quantities and obtaining the information about water surface.

Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, E.V.; Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2010-01-01

1. Observed and predicted declines in Arctic sea ice have raised concerns about marine mammals. In May 2008, the US Fish and Wildlife Service listed polar bears (Ursus maritimus) - one of the most ice-dependent marine mammals - as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. 2. We evaluated the effects of sea ice conditions on vital rates (survival and breeding probabilities) for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Although sea ice declines in this and other regions of the polar basin have been among the greatest in the Arctic, to date population-level effects of sea ice loss on polar bears have only been identified in western Hudson Bay, near the southern limit of the species' range. 3. We estimated vital rates using multistate capture-recapture models that classified individuals by sex, age and reproductive category. We used multimodel inference to evaluate a range of statistical models, all of which were structurally based on the polar bear life cycle. We estimated parameters by model averaging, and developed a parametric bootstrap procedure to quantify parameter uncertainty. 4. In the most supported models, polar bear survival declined with an increasing number of days per year that waters over the continental shelf were ice free. In 2001-2003, the ice-free period was relatively short (mean 101 days) and adult female survival was high (0 ∙ 96-0 ∙ 99, depending on reproductive state). In 2004 and 2005, the ice-free period was longer (mean 135 days) and adult female survival was low (0 ∙ 73-0 ∙ 79, depending on reproductive state). Breeding rates and cub litter survival also declined with increasing duration of the ice-free period. Confidence intervals on vital rate estimates were wide. 5. The effects of sea ice loss on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea may apply to polar bear populations in other portions of the polar basin that have similar sea ice dynamics and have experienced similar, or more severe, sea ice declines. Our findings

Submarine basaltic fountain eruptions in a back-arc basin during the opening of the Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosoi, Jun; Amano, Kazuo

2017-11-01

Basaltic rock generated during the middle Miocene opening of the Japan Sea, is widely distributed on the back-arc side of the Japanese archipelago. Few studies have investigated on submarine volcanism related to opening of the Japan Sea. The present study aimed to reconstruct details of the subaqueous volcanism that formed the back-arc basin basalts (BABB) during this event, and to discuss the relationship between volcanism and the tectonics of back-arc opening, using facies analyses based on field investigation. The study area of the southern Dewa Hills contains well-exposed basalt related to the opening of the Japan Sea. Five types of basaltic rock facies are recognized: (1) coherent basalt, (2) massive platy basalt, (3) jigsaw-fit monomictic basaltic breccia, (4) massive or stratified coarse monomictic basaltic breccia with fluidal clasts, and (5) massive or stratified fine monomictic basaltic breccia. The basaltic rocks are mainly hyaloclastite. Based on facies distributions, we infer that volcanism occurred along fissures developed mainly at the center of the study area. Given that the rocks contain many fluidal clasts, submarine lava fountaining is inferred to have been the dominant eruption style. The basaltic rocks are interpreted as the products of back-arc volcanism that occurred by tensional stress related to opening of the Japan Sea, which drove strong tectonic subsidence and active lava fountain volcanism.

Long-memory and the sea level-temperature relationship: a fractional cointegration approach.

PubMed

Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel; Heres, David R; Martínez-Hernández, L Catalina

2014-01-01

Through thermal expansion of oceans and melting of land-based ice, global warming is very likely contributing to the sea level rise observed during the 20th century. The amount by which further increases in global average temperature could affect sea level is only known with large uncertainties due to the limited capacity of physics-based models to predict sea levels from global surface temperatures. Semi-empirical approaches have been implemented to estimate the statistical relationship between these two variables providing an alternative measure on which to base potentially disrupting impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. However, only a few of these semi-empirical applications had addressed the spurious inference that is likely to be drawn when one nonstationary process is regressed on another. Furthermore, it has been shown that spurious effects are not eliminated by stationary processes when these possess strong long memory. Our results indicate that both global temperature and sea level indeed present the characteristics of long memory processes. Nevertheless, we find that these variables are fractionally cointegrated when sea-ice extent is incorporated as an instrumental variable for temperature which in our estimations has a statistically significant positive impact on global sea level.

The Role of Sea Ice for Vascular Plant Dispersal in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geirsdottir, A.; Alsos, I. G.; Seidenkrantz, M. S.; Bennike, O.; Kirchhefer, A.; Ehrich, D.

2015-12-01

Plant species adapted to arctic environments are expected to go extinct at their southern margins due to climate warming whereas they may find suitable habitats on arctic islands if they are able to disperse there. Analyses of species distribution and phylogenetic data indicate both that the frequency of dispersal events is higher in the arctic than in other regions, and that the dispersal routes often follow the routes of sea surface currents. Thus, it has been hypothesised that sea ice has played a central role in Holocene colonisation of arctic islands. Here we compile data on the first Holocene occurrence of species in East Greenland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, and Svalbard. We then combine these records with interpretations of dispersal routes inferred from genetic data and data on geographical distributions, reconstructions of Holocene sea ice extent, and records of driftwood to evaluate the potential role sea ice has played in past colonisation events.

First glimpse into Lower Jurassic deep-sea biodiversity: in situ diversification and resilience against extinction

PubMed Central

Thuy, Ben; Kiel, Steffen; Dulai, Alfréd; Gale, Andy S.; Kroh, Andreas; Lord, Alan R.; Numberger-Thuy, Lea D.; Stöhr, Sabine; Wisshak, Max

2014-01-01

Owing to the assumed lack of deep-sea macrofossils older than the Late Cretaceous, very little is known about the geological history of deep-sea communities, and most inference-based hypotheses argue for repeated recolonizations of the deep sea from shelf habitats following major palaeoceanographic perturbations. We present a fossil deep-sea assemblage of echinoderms, gastropods, brachiopods and ostracods, from the Early Jurassic of the Glasenbach Gorge, Austria, which includes the oldest known representatives of a number of extant deep-sea groups, and thus implies that in situ diversification, in contrast to immigration from shelf habitats, played a much greater role in shaping modern deep-sea biodiversity than previously thought. A comparison with coeval shelf assemblages reveals that, at least in some of the analysed groups, significantly more extant families/superfamilies have endured in the deep sea since the Early Jurassic than in the shelf seas, which suggests that deep-sea biota are more resilient against extinction than shallow-water ones. In addition, a number of extant deep-sea families/superfamilies found in the Glasenbach assemblage lack post-Jurassic shelf occurrences, implying that if there was a complete extinction of the deep-sea fauna followed by replacement from the shelf, it must have happened before the Late Jurassic. PMID:24850917

A Revised Estimate of 20th Century Global Mean Sea Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, C.; Morrow, E.; Kopp, R. E., III; Mitrovica, J. X.

2014-12-01

One of the primary goals of paleo-sea level research is to assess the stability of ice sheets and glaciers in warming climates. In this context, the 20th century may be thought of as the most recent, recorded, and studied of all past episodes of warming. Over the past decade, a consensus has emerged in the literature that 20th century global mean sea level (GMSL), inferred from tide gauge records, rose at a mean rate of 1.6-1.9 mm/yr. This sea-level rise can be attributed to multiple sources, including thermal expansion of the oceans, ice sheet and glacier mass flux, and anthropogenic changes in land water storage. The Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC summarized the estimated contributions of these sources over 1901-1990 and computed a total rate, using a bottom-up approach, of ~1.0 mm/yr, which falls significantly short of the rate inferred from tide gauge records. Using two independent probabilistic approaches that utilize models of glacial isostatic adjustment, ocean dynamics, and the sea-level fingerprints of rapid land-ice melt to analyze tide gauge records (Kalman smoothing and Gaussian process regression), we are able to close the 20th century sea-level budget and resolve the above enigma. Our revised estimate for the rate of GMSL rise during 1901-1990 is 1.1-1.3 mm/yr (90% credible interval). This value, which is ~20-30% less than previous estimates, suggests that the change in the GMSL rate from the 20th century to the last two decades (2.7 ± 0.4 mm/yr, consistent with past estimates) was greater than previous estimates. Moreover, since some forward projections of GMSL change into the next century are based in part on past estimates of GMSL change, our revised rate may impact projections of GMSL rise for the 21st century and beyond.

Constraints of Sea Beam data on crustal fabrics and seafloor spreading in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briais, Anne; Tapponnier, Paul; Pautot, Guy

1989-11-01

The South China Sea is a mid-late Tertiary marginal basin. The magnetic anomaly lineations in the eastern part of the basin trend approximately east-west [1,2], suggesting a north-south direction of spreading. In the spring of 1985, two cruises on the French research vessel "Jean Charcot" provided Sea Beam coverage, seismic reflection, magnetic and gravity profiles. The Sea Beam data exhibit two major structural trends: scarps striking N50°E± 15°, interpreted as normal faults, and scarps striking N140°E± 15°, interpreted as fracture zones. This fabric implies a northwest-southeast direction of spreading, up to about 100 km north and south of the inferred spreading axis [3]. Dense Sea Beam coverage of a roughly 1° square area northwest of the Scarborough Seamounts chain shows that the emplacement of these seamounts was, at least in its initial stage, controlled by faulting in two orthogonal directions, N50°E and N140°E. Magnetic and gravimetric maps of the same area also reveal anomalies trending roughly N50°E, which are disrupted by transform zones striking N140°E. This detailed study indicates that the fracture zones may be closely spaced (less than 20-30 km) east of Macclesfield Bank. Furthermore, magnetic anomalies identified as 6 and 6a (20 Myr) along two north-south profiles located at both edges to the north of this detailed study area may be correlated with the N80°E trend characteristic of such anomalies in the eastern part of the South China Sea. The east-west trend of magnetic anomalies 6 and 6a, south of Scarborough seamount chain, recognised by Taylor and Hayes (1983) [1] is incompatible with the trend of the fault scarps observed on Sea Beam data. We infer that progressive, right-lateral offsets of the ridge across closely spaced discontinuities may account for the nearly east-west average trend of some of the magnetic anomalies, and of the Scarborough seamount chain, which represents the location of the relict spreading axis, in spite of a

Distribution and ventilation of water masses in the western Ross Sea inferred from CFC measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivaro, Paola; Ianni, Carmela; Magi, Emanuele; Massolo, Serena; Budillon, Giorgio; Smethie, William M.

2015-03-01

During the CLIMA Project (R.V. Italica cruise PNRA XVI, January-February 2001), hydrographic and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) observations were obtained, particularly in the western Ross Sea. Their distribution demonstrated water mass structure and ventilation processes in the investigated areas. In the surface waters (AASW) the CFC saturation levels varied spatially: CFCs were undersaturated in all the areas (range from 80 to 90%), with the exception of few stations sampled near Ross Island. In particular, the Terra Nova Bay polynya, where high salinity shelf water (HSSW) is produced, was a low-saturated surface area (74%) with respect to CFCs. Throughout most of the shelf area, the presence of modified circumpolar deep water (MCDW) was reflected in a mid-depth CFC concentration minima. Beneath the MCDW, CFC concentrations generally increased in the shelf waters towards the seafloor. We estimated that the corresponding CFCs saturation level in the source water region for HSSW was about 68-70%. Waters with high CFC concentrations were detected in the western Ross Sea on the down slope side of the Drygalski Trough, indicating that AABW was being supplied to the deep Antarctic Basin. Estimates of ventilation ages depend strongly on the saturation levels. We calculated ventilation ages using the saturation level calibrated tracer ratio, CFC11/CFC12. We deduced a mean residence time of the shelf waters of about 6-7 years between the western Ross Sea source and the shelf break.

Stan: Statistical inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stan Development Team

2018-01-01

Stan facilitates statistical inference at the frontiers of applied statistics and provides both a modeling language for specifying complex statistical models and a library of statistical algorithms for computing inferences with those models. These components are exposed through interfaces in environments such as R, Python, and the command line.

Descent toward the Icehouse: Eocene sea surface cooling inferred from GDGT distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inglis, Gordon N.; Farnsworth, Alexander; Lunt, Daniel; Foster, Gavin L.; Hollis, Christopher J.; Pagani, Mark; Jardine, Phillip E.; Pearson, Paul N.; Markwick, Paul; Galsworthy, Amanda M. J.; Raynham, Lauren; Taylor, Kyle. W. R.; Pancost, Richard D.

2015-07-01

The TEX86 proxy, based on the distribution of marine isoprenoidal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether lipids (GDGTs), is increasingly used to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) during the Eocene epoch (56.0-33.9 Ma). Here we compile published TEX86 records, critically reevaluate them in light of new understandings in TEX86 palaeothermometry, and supplement them with new data in order to evaluate long-term temperature trends in the Eocene. We investigate the effect of archaea other than marine Thaumarchaeota upon TEX86 values using the branched-to-isoprenoid tetraether index (BIT), the abundance of GDGT-0 relative to crenarchaeol (%GDGT-0), and the Methane Index (MI). We also introduce a new ratio, %GDGTRS, which may help identify Red Sea-type GDGT distributions in the geological record. Using the offset between TEX86H and TEX86L (ΔH-L) and the ratio between GDGT-2 and GDGT-3 ([2]/[3]), we evaluate different TEX86 calibrations and present the first integrated SST compilation for the Eocene (55 to 34 Ma). Although the available data are still sparse some geographic trends can now be resolved. In the high latitudes (>55°), there was substantial cooling during the Eocene (~6°C). Our compiled record also indicates tropical cooling of ~2.5°C during the same interval. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations that span the Eocene, our results indicate that only a small percentage (~10%) of the reconstructed temperature change can be ascribed to ocean gateway reorganization or paleogeographic change. Collectively, this indicates that atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) was the likely driver of surface water cooling during the descent toward the icehouse.

Interaction of sea water and lava during submarine eruptions at mid-ocean ridges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perfit, M.R.; Cann, J.R.; Fornari, D.J.; Engels, J.; Smith, D.K.; Ridley, W.I.; Edwards, M.H.

2003-01-01

Lava erupts into cold sea water on the ocean floor at mid-ocean ridges (at depths of 2,500 m and greater), and the resulting flows make up the upper part of the global oceanic crust. Interactions between heated sea water and molten basaltic lava could exert significant control on the dynamics of lava flows and on their chemistry. But it has been thought that heating sea water at pressures of several hundred bars cannot produce significant amounts of vapour and that a thick crust of chilled glass on the exterior of lava flows minimizes the interaction of lava with sea water. Here we present evidence to the contrary, and show that bubbles of vaporized sea water often rise through the base of lava flows and collect beneath the chilled upper crust. These bubbles of steam at magmatic temperatures may interact both chemically and physically with flowing lava, which could influence our understanding of deep-sea volcanic processes and oceanic crustal construction more generally. We infer that vapour formation plays an important role in creating the collapse features that characterize much of the upper oceanic crust and may accordingly contribute to the measured low seismic velocities in this layer.

Seismic- and well-log-inferred gas hydrate accumulations on Richards Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collett, T.S.

1999-01-01

The gas hydrate stability zone is areally extensive beneath most of the Mackenzie Delta-Beaufort Sea region, with the base of the gas hydrate stability zone more than 1000 m deep on Richards Island. In this study, gas hydrate has been inferred to occur in nine Richards Island exploratory wells on the basis of well-log responses calibrated to the response of the logs within the cored gas-hydrate-bearing intervals of the JAPEX/JNOC/GSC Mallik 2L-38 gas hydrate research well. The integration of the available well-log data with more than 240 km of industry-acquired reflection seismic data have allowed us to map the occurrence of four significant gas hydrate and associated free-gas accumulations in the Ivik-Mallik-Taglu area on Richards Island. The occurrence of gas hydrate on Richards Island is mostly restricted to the crest of large anticlinal features that cut across the base of the gas hydrate stability zone. Combined seismic and well-log data analysis indicate that the known and inferred gas hydrate accumulations on Richards Island may contain as much as 187 178106 m3 of gas.

Shaded Relief and Radar Image with Color as Height, Bosporus Strait and Istanbul, Turkey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

The Bosporus (also spelled Bosphorus) is a strait that connects the Black Sea with the Sea of Marmara in the center of this view of northwest Turkey, taken during the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. The water of the Black Sea at the top of the image and Sea of Marmara below the center are colored blue in this image, along with several large lakes. The largest lake, to the lower right of the Sea of Marmara, is Iznik Lake. The Bosporus (Turkish Bogazici) Strait is considered to be the boundary between Europe and Asia, and the large city of Istanbul, Turkey is located on both sides of the southern end of the strait, visible as a brighter (light green to white) area on the image due to its stronger reflection of radar. Istanbul is the modern name for a city with along history, previously called Constantinople and Byzantium. It was rebuilt as the capital of the Roman Empire in 330 A.D. by Constantine on the site of an earlier Greek city, and it was later the capital of the Byzantine and Ottoman empires until 1922.

The Gulf of Izmit is the narrow gulf extending to the east (right) from the Sea of Marmara. The city of Izmit at the end of the gulf was heavily damaged by a large magnitude 7.4 earthquake on August 17,1999, often called the Izmit earthquake (also known as the Kocaeli, Turkey, earthquake), that killed at least 17,000 people. A previous earthquake under the Gulf of Izmit in 1754 killed at least 2,000people. The Izmit earthquake ruptured a long section of the North Anatolian Fault system from off the right side of this image continuing under the Gulf of Izmit. Another strand of the North Anatolian Fault system is visible as a sharp linear feature in the topography south of Iznik Lake. Bathymetric surveys show that the north Anatolian Fault system extends beneath and has formed the Sea of Marmara, in addition to the Gulf of Izmit and Iznik Lake. Scientists are studying the North Anatolian Fault system to determine the risk of a large earthquake on the

Inferring late-Holocene climate in the Ecuadorian Andes using a chironomid-based temperature inference model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews-Bird, Frazer; Brooks, Stephen J.; Holden, Philip B.; Montoya, Encarni; Gosling, William D.

2016-06-01

Presented here is the first chironomid calibration data set for tropical South America. Surface sediments were collected from 59 lakes across Bolivia (15 lakes), Peru (32 lakes), and Ecuador (12 lakes) between 2004 and 2013 over an altitudinal gradient from 150 m above sea level (a.s.l) to 4655 m a.s.l, between 0-17° S and 64-78° W. The study sites cover a mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient of 25 °C. In total, 55 chironomid taxa were identified in the 59 calibration data set lakes. When used as a single explanatory variable, MAT explains 12.9 % of the variance (λ1/λ2 = 1.431). Two inference models were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and Bayesian methods. The best-performing model using conventional statistical methods was a WA (inverse) model (R2jack = 0.890; RMSEPjack = 2.404 °C, RMSEP - root mean squared error of prediction; mean biasjack = -0.017 °C; max biasjack = 4.665 °C). The Bayesian method produced a model with R2jack = 0.909, RMSEPjack = 2.373 °C, mean biasjack = 0.598 °C, and max biasjack = 3.158 °C. Both models were used to infer past temperatures from a ca. 3000-year record from the tropical Andes of Ecuador, Laguna Pindo. Inferred temperatures fluctuated around modern-day conditions but showed significant departures at certain intervals (ca. 1600 cal yr BP; ca. 3000-2500 cal yr BP). Both methods (WA and Bayesian) showed similar patterns of temperature variability; however, the magnitude of fluctuations differed. In general the WA method was more variable and often underestimated Holocene temperatures (by ca. -7 ± 2.5 °C relative to the modern period). The Bayesian method provided temperature anomaly estimates for cool periods that lay within the expected range of the Holocene (ca. -3 ± 3.4 °C). The error associated with both reconstructions is consistent with a constant temperature of 20 °C for the past 3000 years. We would caution, however, against an over-interpretation at this stage. The reconstruction can only

Is awareness necessary for true inference?

PubMed

Leo, Peter D; Greene, Anthony J

2008-09-01

In transitive inference, participants learn a set of context-dependent discriminations that can be organized into a hierarchy that supports inference. Several studies show that inference occurs with or without task awareness. However, some studies assert that without awareness, performance is attributable to pseudoinference. By this account, inference-like performance is achieved by differential stimulus weighting according to the stimuli's proximity to the end items of the hierarchy. We implement an inference task that cannot be based on differential stimulus weighting. The design itself rules out pseudoinference strategies. Success on the task without evidence of deliberative strategies would therefore suggest that true inference can be achieved implicitly. We found that accurate performance on the inference task was not dependent on explicit awareness. The finding is consistent with a growing body of evidence that indicates that forms of learning and memory supporting inference and flexibility do not necessarily depend on task awareness.

The Paleoceanography of the Bering Sea During the Last Glacial Cycle

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-02-01

Stabeno, 1998). Water from the Bering (1995) inferred that the oxygen minimum zone Sea is relatively low salinity and rich in nutrients, (OMZ...fresher, warmer, and enriched in nutrients, particu- planktonic species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma larly silicate, which dissolves from opal- rich seafloor...2- rich 33 North Pacific intermediate water (NPIW), (2) decrease in the [02] of newly-formed NPIW without a change in ventilation rate (Crusius et al

Land-sea coupling of early Pleistocene glacial cycles in the southern North Sea exhibit dominant Northern Hemisphere forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donders, Timme H.; van Helmond, Niels A. G. M.; Verreussel, Roel; Munsterman, Dirk; ten Veen, Johan; Speijer, Robert P.; Weijers, Johan W. H.; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Peterse, Francien; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S.; Lourens, Lucas; Kuhlmann, Gesa; Brinkhuis, Henk

2018-03-01

We assess the disputed phase relations between forcing and climatic response in the early Pleistocene with a spliced Gelasian (˜ 2.6-1.8 Ma) multi-proxy record from the southern North Sea basin. The cored sections couple climate evolution on both land and sea during the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG) in NW Europe, providing the first well-constrained stratigraphic sequence of the classic terrestrial Praetiglian stage. Terrestrial signals were derived from the Eridanos paleoriver, a major fluvial system that contributed a large amount of freshwater to the northeast Atlantic. Due to its latitudinal position, the Eridanos catchment was likely affected by early Pleistocene NHG, leading to intermittent shutdown and reactivation of river flow and sediment transport. Here we apply organic geochemistry, palynology, carbonate isotope geochemistry, and seismostratigraphy to document both vegetation changes in the Eridanos catchment and regional surface water conditions and relate them to early Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles and relative sea level changes. Paleomagnetic and palynological data provide a solid integrated timeframe that ties the obliquity cycles, expressed in the borehole geophysical logs, to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 103 to 92, independently confirmed by a local benthic oxygen isotope record. Marine and terrestrial palynological and organic geochemical records provide high-resolution reconstructions of relative terrestrial and sea surface temperature (TT and SST), vegetation, relative sea level, and coastal influence.During the prominent cold stages MIS 98 and 96, as well as 94, the record indicates increased non-arboreal vegetation, low SST and TT, and low relative sea level. During the warm stages MIS 99, 97, and 95 we infer increased stratification of the water column together with a higher percentage of arboreal vegetation, high SST, and relative sea level maxima. The early Pleistocene distinct warm-cold alterations are

Children's Category-Based Inferences Affect Classification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ross, Brian H.; Gelman, Susan A.; Rosengren, Karl S.

2005-01-01

Children learn many new categories and make inferences about these categories. Much work has examined how children make inferences on the basis of category knowledge. However, inferences may also affect what is learned about a category. Four experiments examine whether category-based inferences during category learning influence category knowledge…

Modelling sea level data from China and Malay-Thailand to estimate Holocene ice-volume equivalent sea level change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, Sarah L.; Milne, Glenn A.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Zong, Yongqiang

2016-04-01

This study presents a new model of Holocene ice-volume equivalent sea level (ESL), extending a previously published global ice sheet model (Bassett et al., 2005), which was unconstrained from 10 kyr BP to present. This new model was developed by comparing relative sea level (RSL) predictions from a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model to a suite of Holocene sea level index points from China and Malay-Thailand. Three consistent data-model misfits were found using the Bassett et al. (2005) model: an over-prediction in the height of maximum sea level, the timing of this maximum, and the temporal variation of sea level from the time of the highstand to present. The data-model misfits were examined for a large suite of ESL scenarios and a range of earth model parameters to determine an optimum model of Holocene ESL. This model is characterised by a slowdown in melting at ∼7 kyr BP, associated with the final deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, followed by a continued rise in ESL until ∼1 kyr BP of ∼5.8 m associated with melting from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. It was not possible to identify an earth viscosity model that provided good fits for both regions; with the China data preferring viscosity values in the upper mantle of less than 1.5 × 1020 Pa s and the Malay-Thailand data preferring greater values. We suggest that this inference of a very weak upper mantle for the China data originates from the nearby subduction zone and Hainan Plume. The low viscosity values may also account for the lack of a well-defined highstand at the China sites.

Is there a hierarchy of social inferences? The likelihood and speed of inferring intentionality, mind, and personality.

PubMed

Malle, Bertram F; Holbrook, Jess

2012-04-01

People interpret behavior by making inferences about agents' intentionality, mind, and personality. Past research studied such inferences 1 at a time; in real life, people make these inferences simultaneously. The present studies therefore examined whether 4 major inferences (intentionality, desire, belief, and personality), elicited simultaneously in response to an observed behavior, might be ordered in a hierarchy of likelihood and speed. To achieve generalizability, the studies included a wide range of stimulus behaviors, presented them verbally and as dynamic videos, and assessed inferences both in a retrieval paradigm (measuring the likelihood and speed of accessing inferences immediately after they were made) and in an online processing paradigm (measuring the speed of forming inferences during behavior observation). Five studies provide evidence for a hierarchy of social inferences-from intentionality and desire to belief to personality-that is stable across verbal and visual presentations and that parallels the order found in developmental and primate research. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Eddy covariance measurements of sea spray particles over the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norris, S.; Brooks, I.; de Leeuw, G.; Smith, M. H.; Moeman, M.; Lingard, J.

2007-09-01

Most estimates of sea spray aerosol source functions have used indirect means to infer the rate of production as a function of wind speed. Only recently has the technology become available to make high frequency measurements of aerosol concentration suitable for direct eddy correlation determination of the particle flux. This was accomplished in this study by combining a newly developed fast aerosol particle counter with an ultrasonic anemometer which allowed for eddy covariance measurements of size-segregated particle fluxes. The aerosol instrument is the Compact Lightweight Aerosol Spectrometer Probe (CLASP) - capable of measuring 8-channel size spectra for mean radii between 0.15 and 0.35 μm at 10 Hz. The first successful measurements were made during the WASFAB (Waves, Air Sea Fluxes, Aerosol and Bubbles) field campaign in October 2005 in Duck (NC, USA). The method and results are presented and comparisons are made with recent sea spray source functions from the literature.

Diterpenoid compounds and other lipids in deep-sea sediments and their geochemical significance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simoneit, B. R. T.

1977-01-01

Cyclic diterpenoid compounds have been found by various investigators in the geosphere (e.g., fossil resins, coals, soil, shale, and deep-sea sediments). These compounds occur in significant amounts only in higher plants and are therefore potential markers of terrigenous plant lipids. Diterpenoids with the abietane skeleton (mainly dehydroabietic acid) have been identified in the lipids of sediment samples from the northeast Pacific Ocean, Black Sea, and North Atlantic Ocean. The presence of these resin-derived compounds was correlated with the terrigenous clay components and with the presence of pollen. The presence of polycyclic diterpenoids was also correlated with the distribution patterns and inferred sources of other sediment lipid constituents. Potamic transport, followed by turbidite redistribution, is the probable input mechanism of these resin-derived compounds to the deep-sea sediments. These diterpenoids appear to be excellent biological markers of resinous higher plants.

Spatial patterns of mixing in the Solomon Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alberty, M. S.; Sprintall, J.; MacKinnon, J.; Ganachaud, A.; Cravatte, S.; Eldin, G.; Germineaud, C.; Melet, A.

2017-05-01

The Solomon Sea is a marginal sea in the southwest Pacific that connects subtropical and equatorial circulation, constricting transport of South Pacific Subtropical Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water through its deep, narrow channels. Marginal sea topography inhibits internal waves from propagating out and into the open ocean, making these regions hot spots for energy dissipation and mixing. Data from two hydrographic cruises and from Argo profiles are employed to indirectly infer mixing from observations for the first time in the Solomon Sea. Thorpe and finescale methods indirectly estimate the rate of dissipation of kinetic energy (ɛ) and indicate that it is maximum in the surface and thermocline layers and decreases by 2-3 orders of magnitude by 2000 m depth. Estimates of diapycnal diffusivity from the observations and a simple diffusive model agree in magnitude but have different depth structures, likely reflecting the combined influence of both diapycnal mixing and isopycnal stirring. Spatial variability of ɛ is large, spanning at least 2 orders of magnitude within isopycnal layers. Seasonal variability of ɛ reflects regional monsoonal changes in large-scale oceanic and atmospheric conditions with ɛ increased in July and decreased in March. Finally, tide power input and topographic roughness are well correlated with mean spatial patterns of mixing within intermediate and deep isopycnals but are not clearly correlated with thermocline mixing patterns.

Network inference using informative priors.

PubMed

Mukherjee, Sach; Speed, Terence P

2008-09-23

Recent years have seen much interest in the study of systems characterized by multiple interacting components. A class of statistical models called graphical models, in which graphs are used to represent probabilistic relationships between variables, provides a framework for formal inference regarding such systems. In many settings, the object of inference is the network structure itself. This problem of "network inference" is well known to be a challenging one. However, in scientific settings there is very often existing information regarding network connectivity. A natural idea then is to take account of such information during inference. This article addresses the question of incorporating prior information into network inference. We focus on directed models called Bayesian networks, and use Markov chain Monte Carlo to draw samples from posterior distributions over network structures. We introduce prior distributions on graphs capable of capturing information regarding network features including edges, classes of edges, degree distributions, and sparsity. We illustrate our approach in the context of systems biology, applying our methods to network inference in cancer signaling.

Steric and mass-induced Mediterranean sea level trends from 14 years of altimetry data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Criado-Aldeanueva, Francisco; Del Río Vera, Jorge; García-Lafuente, Jesús

2008-02-01

Long-term series of almost 14 years of altimetry data (1992-2005) have been analysed along with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and temperature and salinity profiles to investigate sea level trends over the Mediterranean Sea. Although sea level variations are mainly driven by the steric contribution, the mass-induced component plays some role in modulating its oscillation. A spatially averaged positive trend of 2.1 ± 0.6 mm/year has been observed, but a change in sign in 2001 seems to appear. Steric effects (mainly on thermal origin) account for ˜ 55% of sea level trend. Although Mediterranean Sea is a semi-enclosed basin, this value is comparable to that reported for the global ocean. Sea level rise is particularly important in the Levantine basin south of Crete with values up to 10 ± 1 mm/year. Other areas of sea level rise are localised throughout the Levantine basin and in the Adriatic and Alboran Seas, with more moderate values. Sea level drop areas are localised in the Algerian basin, between the Balearic Islands and the African coasts and, particularly, in the Ionian basin. In this area, negative trends as high as - 10 ± 0.8 mm/year are detected mainly due to the mass-induced contribution, which suggests decadal changes of surface circulation. The inferred sea level trends have been correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices and a low but significant correlation has been detected between sea level in the Levantine and Balearic basins and NAO index.

Bayes factors and multimodel inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Barker, R.J.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

Multimodel inference has two main themes: model selection, and model averaging. Model averaging is a means of making inference conditional on a model set, rather than on a selected model, allowing formal recognition of the uncertainty associated with model choice. The Bayesian paradigm provides a natural framework for model averaging, and provides a context for evaluation of the commonly used AIC weights. We review Bayesian multimodel inference, noting the importance of Bayes factors. Noting the sensitivity of Bayes factors to the choice of priors on parameters, we define and propose nonpreferential priors as offering a reasonable standard for objective multimodel inference.

Velocity-based movement modeling for individual and population level inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Sterling, Jeremy T.

2011-01-01

Understanding animal movement and resource selection provides important information about the ecology of the animal, but an animal's movement and behavior are not typically constant in time. We present a velocity-based approach for modeling animal movement in space and time that allows for temporal heterogeneity in an animal's response to the environment, allows for temporal irregularity in telemetry data, and accounts for the uncertainty in the location information. Population-level inference on movement patterns and resource selection can then be made through cluster analysis of the parameters related to movement and behavior. We illustrate this approach through a study of northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) movement in the Bering Sea, Alaska, USA. Results show sex differentiation, with female northern fur seals exhibiting stronger response to environmental variables.

Velocity-Based Movement Modeling for Individual and Population Level Inference

PubMed Central

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Sterling, Jeremy T.

2011-01-01

Understanding animal movement and resource selection provides important information about the ecology of the animal, but an animal's movement and behavior are not typically constant in time. We present a velocity-based approach for modeling animal movement in space and time that allows for temporal heterogeneity in an animal's response to the environment, allows for temporal irregularity in telemetry data, and accounts for the uncertainty in the location information. Population-level inference on movement patterns and resource selection can then be made through cluster analysis of the parameters related to movement and behavior. We illustrate this approach through a study of northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) movement in the Bering Sea, Alaska, USA. Results show sex differentiation, with female northern fur seals exhibiting stronger response to environmental variables. PMID:21931584

Southern Ocean frontal structure and sea-ice formation rates revealed by elephant seals

PubMed Central

Charrassin, J.-B.; Hindell, M.; Rintoul, S. R.; Roquet, F.; Sokolov, S.; Biuw, M.; Costa, D.; Boehme, L.; Lovell, P.; Coleman, R.; Timmermann, R.; Meijers, A.; Meredith, M.; Park, Y.-H.; Bailleul, F.; Goebel, M.; Tremblay, Y.; Bost, C.-A.; McMahon, C. R.; Field, I. C.; Fedak, M. A.; Guinet, C.

2008-01-01

Polar regions are particularly sensitive to climate change, with the potential for significant feedbacks between ocean circulation, sea ice, and the ocean carbon cycle. However, the difficulty in obtaining in situ data means that our ability to detect and interpret change is very limited, especially in the Southern Ocean, where the ocean beneath the sea ice remains almost entirely unobserved and the rate of sea-ice formation is poorly known. Here, we show that southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) equipped with oceanographic sensors can measure ocean structure and water mass changes in regions and seasons rarely observed with traditional oceanographic platforms. In particular, seals provided a 30-fold increase in hydrographic profiles from the sea-ice zone, allowing the major fronts to be mapped south of 60°S and sea-ice formation rates to be inferred from changes in upper ocean salinity. Sea-ice production rates peaked in early winter (April–May) during the rapid northward expansion of the pack ice and declined by a factor of 2 to 3 between May and August, in agreement with a three-dimensional coupled ocean–sea-ice model. By measuring the high-latitude ocean during winter, elephant seals fill a “blind spot” in our sampling coverage, enabling the establishment of a truly global ocean-observing system. PMID:18695241

Sea ice and pollution-modulated changes in Greenland ice core methanesulfonate and bromine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maselli, Olivia J.; Chellman, Nathan J.; Grieman, Mackenzie; Layman, Lawrence; McConnell, Joseph R.; Pasteris, Daniel; Rhodes, Rachael H.; Saltzman, Eric; Sigl, Michael

2017-01-01

Reconstruction of past changes in Arctic sea ice extent may be critical for understanding its future evolution. Methanesulfonate (MSA) and bromine concentrations preserved in ice cores have both been proposed as indicators of past sea ice conditions. In this study, two ice cores from central and north-eastern Greenland were analysed at sub-annual resolution for MSA (CH3SO3H) and bromine, covering the time period 1750-2010. We examine correlations between ice core MSA and the HadISST1 ICE sea ice dataset and consult back trajectories to infer the likely source regions. A strong correlation between the low-frequency MSA and bromine records during pre-industrial times indicates that both chemical species are likely linked to processes occurring on or near sea ice in the same source regions. The positive correlation between ice core MSA and bromine persists until the mid-20th century, when the acidity of Greenland ice begins to increase markedly due to increased fossil fuel emissions. After that time, MSA levels decrease as a result of declining sea ice extent but bromine levels increase. We consider several possible explanations and ultimately suggest that increased acidity, specifically nitric acid, of snow on sea ice stimulates the release of reactive Br from sea ice, resulting in increased transport and deposition on the Greenland ice sheet.

Vertical land motion controls regional sea level rise patterns on the United States east coast since 1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piecuch, C. G.; Huybers, P. J.; Hay, C.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Little, C. M.; Ponte, R. M.; Tingley, M.

2017-12-01

Understanding observed spatial variations in centennial relative sea level trends on the United States east coast has important scientific and societal applications. Past studies based on models and proxies variously suggest roles for crustal displacement, ocean dynamics, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Here we perform joint Bayesian inference on regional relative sea level, vertical land motion, and absolute sea level fields based on tide gauge records and GPS data. Posterior solutions show that regional vertical land motion explains most (80% median estimate) of the spatial variance in the large-scale relative sea level trend field on the east coast over 1900-2016. The posterior estimate for coastal absolute sea level rise is remarkably spatially uniform compared to previous studies, with a spatial average of 1.4-2.3 mm/yr (95% credible interval). Results corroborate glacial isostatic adjustment models and reveal that meaningful long-period, large-scale vertical velocity signals can be extracted from short GPS records.

Correlation of sea level falls interpreted from atoll stratigraphy with turbidites in adjacent basins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lincoln, J.M.

Past sea levels can be derived from any atoll subsurface sediments deposited at or near sea level by determining the ages of deposition and correcting the present depths to the sediments for subsidence of the underlying edifice since the times of deposition. A sea level curve constructed by this method consists of discontinuous segments, each corresponding to a period of rising relative sea level and deposition of a discrete sedimentary package. Discontinuities in the sea level curve derived by this method correspond to relative sea level falls and stratigraphic hiatuses in the atoll subsurface. During intervals of relative sea levelmore » fall an atoll emerges to become a high limestone island. Sea level may fluctuate several times during a period of atoll emergence to become a high limestone island. Sea level may fluctuate several times during a period of atoll emergence without depositing sediments on top of the atoll. Furthermore, subaerial erosion may remove a substantial part of the depositional record of previous sea level fluctuations. For these reasons the authors must look to the adjacent basins to complement the incomplete record of sea level change recorded beneath atolls. During lowstands of sea level, faunas originally deposited near sea level on an atoll may be eroded and redeposited as turbidites in deep adjacent basins. Three such turbidites penetrated during deep-sea drilling at Sites 462 and 315 in the central Pacific correlate well with a late Tertiary sea level curve based on biostratigraphic ages and {sup 87}Sr/{sup 86}Sr chronostratigraphy for core from Enewetak Atoll in the northern Marshall Islands. Further drilling of the archipelagic aprons adjacent to atolls will improve the sea level history that may be inferred from atoll stratigraphy.« less

Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-09

inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

Revisiting Tectonic Corrections Applied to Pleistocene Sea-Level Highstands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creveling, J. R.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Hay, C.; Austermann, J.; Kopp, R. E.

2015-12-01

The robustness of stratigraphic- and geomorphic-based inferences of Quaternary peak interglacial sea levels — and equivalent minimum continental ice volumes — depends on the accuracy with which highstand markers can be corrected for vertical tectonic displacement. For sites that preserve a Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e sea-level highstand marker, the customary method for estimating tectonic uplift/subsidence rate computes the difference between the local elevation of the highstand marker and a reference eustatic (i.e., global mean) MIS 5e sea-level height, typically assumed to be +6 m, and then divides this height difference by the age of the highstand marker. This rate is then applied to correct the elevation of other observed sea-level markers at that site for tectonic displacement. Subtracting a reference eustatic value from a local MIS 5e highstand marker elevation introduces two potentially significant errors. First, the commonly adopted peak eustatic MIS 5e sea-level value (i.e., +6 m) is likely too low; recent studies concluded that MIS 5e peak eustatic sea level was ~6-9 m. Second, local peak MIS 5e sea level was not globally uniform, but instead characterized by significant departures from eustasy due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to successive glacial-interglacial cycles and excess polar ice-sheet melt relative to present day. We present numerical models of GIA that incorporate both of these effects in order to quantify the plausible range in error of previous tectonic corrections. We demonstrate that, even far from melting ice sheets, local peak MIS 5e sea level may have departed from eustasy by 2-4 m, or more. Thus, adopting an assumed reference eustatic value to estimate tectonic displacement, rather than a site-specific GIA signal, can introduce significant error in estimates of peak eustatic sea level (and minimum ice volumes) during Quaternary highstands (e.g., MIS 11, MIS 5c and MIS 5a).

Surface radiant flux densities inferred from LAC and GAC AVHRR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, F.; Klaes, D.

To infer surface radiant flux densities from current (NOAA-AVHRR, ERS-1/2 ATSR) and future meteorological (Envisat AATSR, MSG, METOP) satellite data, the complex, modular analysis scheme SESAT (Strahlungs- und Energieflüsse aus Satellitendaten) could be developed (Berger, 2001). This scheme allows the determination of cloud types, optical and microphysical cloud properties as well as surface and TOA radiant flux densities. After testing of SESAT in Central Europe and the Baltic Sea catchment (more than 400scenes U including a detailed validation with various surface measurements) it could be applied to a large number of NOAA-16 AVHRR overpasses covering the globe.For the analysis, two different spatial resolutions U local area coverage (LAC) andwere considered. Therefore, all inferred results, like global area coverage (GAC) U cloud cover, cloud properties and radiant properties, could be intercompared. Specific emphasis could be made to the surface radiant flux densities (all radiative balance compoments), where results for different regions, like Southern America, Southern Africa, Northern America, Europe, and Indonesia, will be presented. Applying SESAT, energy flux densities, like latent and sensible heat flux densities could also be determined additionally. A statistical analysis of all results including a detailed discussion for the two spatial resolutions will close this study.

Measuring precise sea level from a buoy using the global positioning system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rocken, C.; Kelecy, T.M.; Born, G.H.

1990-11-01

High-accuracy sea surface positioning is required for sea floor geodesy, satellite altimeter verification, and the study of sea level. An experiment to study the feasibility of using the Global Positioning System (GPS) for accurate sea surface positioning was conducted. A GPS-equipped buoy (floater) was deployed off the Scripps pier at La Jolla, California during December 13-15, 1989. Two reference GPS receivers were placed on land, one within {approximately}100 m of the floater, and the other about 80 km inland at the laser ranging site on Monument Peak. The position of the floater was determined relative to the land-fixed receivers using:more » (a) kinematic GPS processing software developed at the National Geodetic Survey (NGS), and (b) the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's GIPSY (GPS Inferred Positioning SYstem) software. Sea level and ocean wave spectra were calculated from GPPS measurements. These results were compared to measurements made with a NOAA tide gauge and a Paros{trademark} pressure transducer (PPT). GPS sea level for the short 100-m baseline agrees with the PPT sea level at the 1-cm level and has an rms variation of 5 mm over a period of 4 hours. Agreement between results with the two independent GPS analyses is on the order of a few millimeters. Processing of the longer Monument Peak - floater baseline is in progress and will require orbit adjustments and tropospheric modeling to obtain results comparable to the short baseline.« less

Generic comparison of protein inference engines.

PubMed

Claassen, Manfred; Reiter, Lukas; Hengartner, Michael O; Buhmann, Joachim M; Aebersold, Ruedi

2012-04-01

Protein identifications, instead of peptide-spectrum matches, constitute the biologically relevant result of shotgun proteomics studies. How to appropriately infer and report protein identifications has triggered a still ongoing debate. This debate has so far suffered from the lack of appropriate performance measures that allow us to objectively assess protein inference approaches. This study describes an intuitive, generic and yet formal performance measure and demonstrates how it enables experimentalists to select an optimal protein inference strategy for a given collection of fragment ion spectra. We applied the performance measure to systematically explore the benefit of excluding possibly unreliable protein identifications, such as single-hit wonders. Therefore, we defined a family of protein inference engines by extending a simple inference engine by thousands of pruning variants, each excluding a different specified set of possibly unreliable identifications. We benchmarked these protein inference engines on several data sets representing different proteomes and mass spectrometry platforms. Optimally performing inference engines retained all high confidence spectral evidence, without posterior exclusion of any type of protein identifications. Despite the diversity of studied data sets consistently supporting this rule, other data sets might behave differently. In order to ensure maximal reliable proteome coverage for data sets arising in other studies we advocate abstaining from rigid protein inference rules, such as exclusion of single-hit wonders, and instead consider several protein inference approaches and assess these with respect to the presented performance measure in the specific application context.

Under the Sea Ice: Exploration of the Relationships Between Sea Ice Patterns and Foraging Movements of a Marine Predator in East Antarctica.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labrousse, S.; Sallee, J. B.; Fraser, A. D.; Massom, R. A.; Reid, P.; Sumner, M.; Guinet, C.; Harcourt, R.; Bailleul, F.; Hindell, M.; Charrassin, J. B.

2016-02-01

Investigating ecological relationships between top predators and their environment is essential to understand the response of marine ecosystems to climate variability. Specifically, variability and changes in sea ice, which is known as an important habitat for marine ecosystems, presents complex patterns in East Antarctic. The impact for ecosystems of such changes of their habitat is however still unknown. Acting as an ecological double-edged sword, sea ice can impede access to marine resources while harboring a rich ecosystem during winter. Here, we investigated which type of sea ice habitat is used by male and female southern elephant seals during winter and examine if and how the spatio-temporal variability of sea ice concentration (SIC) influence their foraging strategies. We also examined over a 10 years time-series the impact of SIC and sea ice advance anomaly on foraging activity. To do this, we studied 46 individuals equipped with Satellite linked data recorders between 2004 and 2014, undertaking post-moult trips in winter from Kerguelen to the peri-Antarctic shelf. The general patterns of sea ice use by males and females are clearly distinct; while females tended to follow the sea ice edge as it extended northward, males remained on the continental shelf. Female foraging activity was higher in late autumn in the outer part of the pack ice in concentrated SIC and spatially stable. They remained in areas of variable SIC over time and low persistence. The seal hunting time, a proxy of foraging activity inferred from the diving behaviour, was much higher during earlier advance of sea ice over female time-series. The females were possibly taking advantage of the ice algal autumn bloom sustaining krill and an under ice ecosystem without being trapped in sea ice. Males foraging activity increased when they remained deep inside sea ice over the shelf using variable SIC in time and space, presumably in polynyas or flaw leads between fast and pack ice. This strategy

Diminishing sea ice in the western Arctic Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, R.S.; Belchansky, G.I.; Drobot, Sheldon; Douglas, David C.; Levinson, D.H.; Waple, A.M.

2004-01-01

Since the advent of satellite passive microwave radiometry (1978), variations in sea ice extent and concentration have been carefully monitored from space. An estimated 7.4% decrease in sea ice extent has occurred in the last 25 yr (Johannessen et al. 2004), with recent record minima (e.g., Maslanik et al. 1999; Serreze et al. 2003) accounting for much of the decline. Comparisons between the time series of Arctic sea ice melt dynamics and snowmelt dates at the NOAA–CMDL Barrow Observatory (BRW) reveal intriguing correlations.Melt-onset dates over sea ice (Drobot and Anderson 2001) were cross correlated with the melt-date time series from BRW, and a prominent region of high correlation between snowmelt onset over sea ice and the BRW record of melt dates was approximately aligned with the climatological center of the Beaufort Sea Anticyclone (BSA). The BSA induces anticyclonic ice motion in the region, effectively forcing the Beaufort gyre. A weak gyre caused by a breakdown of the BSA diminishes transport of multiyear ice into this region (Drobot and Maslanik 2003). Similarly, the annual snow cycle at BRW varies with the position and intensity of the BSA (Stone et al. 2002, their Fig. 6). Thus, variations in the BSA appear to have far-reaching effects on the annual accumulation and subsequent melt of snow over a large region of the western Arctic.A dramatic increase in melt season duration (Belchansky et al. 2004) was also observed within the same region of high correlation between onset of melt over the ice pack and snowmelt at BRW (Fig. 5.7). By inference, this suggests linkages between factors that modulate the annual cycle of snow on land and processes that influence melting of snow and ice in the western Arctic Ocean.

Polar Bear Conservation Status in Relation to Projected Sea-ice Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regehr, E. V.

2015-12-01

The status of the world's 19 subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) varies as a function of sea-ice conditions, ecology, management, and other factors. Previous methods to project the response of polar bears to loss of Arctic sea ice—the primary threat to the species—include expert opinion surveys, Bayesian Networks providing qualitative stressor assessments, and subpopulations-specific demographic analyses. Here, we evaluated the global conservation status of polar bears using a data-based sensitivity analysis. First, we estimated generation length for subpopulations with available data (n=11). Second, we developed standardized sea-ice metrics representing habitat availability. Third, we projected global population size under alternative assumptions for relationships between sea ice and subpopulation abundance. Estimated generation length (median = 11.4 years; 95%CI = 9.8 to 13.6) and sea-ice change (median = loss of 1.26 ice-covered days per year; 95%CI = 0.70 to 3.37) varied across subpopulations. Assuming a one-to-one proportional relationship between sea ice and abundance, the median percent change in global population size over three polar bear generations was -30% (95%CI = -35% to -25%). Assuming a linear relationship between sea ice and normalized estimates of subpopulation abundance, median percent change was -4% (95% CI = -62% to +50%) or -43% (95% CI = -76% to -20%), depending on how subpopulations were grouped and how inference was extended from relatively well-studied subpopulations (n=7) to those with little or no data. Our findings suggest the potential for large reductions in polar bear numbers over the next three polar bear generations if sea-ice loss due to climate change continues as forecasted.

Mediterranean Sea potential seen in area south of Malta

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bishop, W.F.; Debono, G.

Seismic data and stratigraphic projections indicate that an entirely different facies exists in Area 4 in the Mediterranean Sea south of Malta than the continuous carbonate sequence of the Malta platform. Japan National Oil Corp., in September 1989 under authority of the government of Malta, conducted a 3,615 line km geophysical survey (seismic, gravity, magnetics) in Area 4, which comprises about 13,000 sk km and is 40 km south of Malta. The paper describes the geology of Malta Area 4, its inferred stratigraphy, seismic results, and potential geologic traps.

Children's and Adults' Evaluation of Their Own Inductive Inferences, Deductive Inferences, and Guesses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pillow, Bradford H.; Pearson, RaeAnne M.

2009-01-01

Adults' and kindergarten through fourth-grade children's evaluations and explanations of inductive inferences, deductive inferences, and guesses were assessed. Beginning in kindergarten, participants rated deductions as more certain than weak inductions or guesses. Beginning in third grade, deductions were rated as more certain than strong…

Indo-Pacific sea level variability at multidecadal time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, M. A.; Thompson, P. R.

2016-12-01

Long tide gauge and atmospheric pressure measurements are used to infer multidecadal fluctuations in trade wind forcing and the associated Indo-Pacific sea level response along coastal and equatorial waveguides. The trade wind variations are marked by a weakening beginning with the late 1970s climate shift and a subsequent return to mean conditions since the early 1990s. These fluctuations covary with multidecadal wind changes at mid-latitudes, as measured by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or the North Pacific indices; however, the mid-latitude multidecadal variations prior to 1970 or noticeably absent in the inferred trade wind record. The different behavior of tropical and mid-latitude winds support the notion that multidecadal climate variations in the Pacific result from a combination of processes and not a single coherent mode spanning the basin. In particular, the two-decade long satellite altimeter record represents a period of apparent connection between the two regions that was not exhibited earlier in the century.

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

2012-01-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

Heat and Freshwater Convergence Anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean Inferred from Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, K. A.; Drushka, K.; Thompson, L.

2015-12-01

Observations of thermosteric and halosteric sea level from hydrographic data, ocean mass from GRACE and altimetric sea surface height are used to infer meridional heat transport (MHT) and freshwater convergence (FWC) anomalies for the Atlantic Ocean. An "unknown control" version of a Kalman filter in each of eight regions extracts smooth estimates of heat transport convergence (HTC) and FWC from discrepancies between the sea level response to monthly surface heat and freshwater fluxes and observed heat and freshwater content. The model is run for 1993-2014. Estimates of MHT anomalies are derived by summing the HTC from north to south and adding a spatially uniform, time-varying MHT derived from updated MHT estimates at 41N (Willis 2010). Estimated anomalies in MHT are comparable to those recently observed at the RAPID/MOCHA line at 26.5N. MHT estimates are relatively insensitive to the choice of heat flux products and are highly coherent spatially. MHT anomalies at 35S resemble estimates of Agulhas Leakage derived from altimeter (LeBars et al 2014) suggesting that the Indian Ocean is the source of the anomalous heat inflow. FWC estimates in the Atlantic Ocean (67N to 35S) resemble estimates of Atlantic river inflow (de Couet and Maurer, GRDC 2009). Increasing values of FWC after 2002 at a time when MHT was decreasing may indicate a feedback between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and FWC that would accelerate the AMOC slowdown.

Theory of spectral radiance of pollutants at sea, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

Remote measurement of pollutants dumped in the sea, not oil slicks, but soluble pollutants that change the color of the water, is addressed. The sensor is a spectral radiometer that flies over the polluted area and compares its spectral radiance (color) to that of surrounding clean seawater. The goal is to infer the concentration of pollutants using the measured radiance of the sea compared to laboratory measurements of reflection and transmission spectra of the pollutants. The subject is treated in three steps: (1) the quantities involved are defined and means for measuring them are described; (2) the equations for remote sensing with a low-flying aircraft are derived, in which wase the absorption and radiance of intervening air is negligible; and (3) high-flying aircraft and satellites are applied, in which case the radiance of intervening air is the major problem.

Marmara University Medical Students' Perception on Sexual Violence against Women and Induced Abortion in Turkey.

PubMed

Lüleci, Nimet Emel; Kaya, Eda; Aslan, Ece; Şenkal, Ece Söylem; Çiçek, Zehra Nadide

2016-03-01

Historically, sexual assault is a common issue in Turkey. As doctors are one of the steps to help sexually assaulted women, medical students should have basic knowledge of and sensitivity regarding this subject. Another common women's public health issue is induced abortion. In countries where access to abortion is restricted, there is a tendency towards unhealthy abortion. The aims of this study are: (1) to determine the attitudes and opinions of Marmara University Medical Faculty students about sexual assault against women and induced abortion and (2) to propose an educational program for medical students about sexual assault and abortion. Cross-sectional study. The questionnaires were self-administered and the data were analyzed using SPSS v.15.0. First, the descriptive statistics were analyzed, followed by Chi-square for contingency tests assessing differences in attitudes toward sexual assault and induced abortion by factors such as gender and educational term. Differences were considered statistically significant at p<0.05. About 89.6% of the participants (n=266) reported that they had never been sexually assaulted and about 11.5% of the women (n=19) had been sexually assaulted. There was no significant relationship between previous sexual assault and gender (p>0.05). Although there was no significant difference regarding the extent of punishment by victim's status as a virgin, 21.3% (n=63) agreed that punishment should be more severe when the victim was a virgin. About 40.7% (n=120) agreed that the legal period of abortion in Turkey (10 weeks) should be longer. The majority (86.1%, n=255) agreed that legally prohibiting abortions causes an increase in unhealthy abortions. An educational program on these issues should be developed for medical students.

Marmara University Medical Students’ Perception on Sexual Violence against Women and Induced Abortion in Turkey

PubMed Central

Lüleci, Nimet Emel; Kaya, Eda; Aslan, Ece; Şenkal, Ece Söylem; Çiçek, Zehra Nadide

2016-01-01

Background: Historically, sexual assault is a common issue in Turkey. As doctors are one of the steps to help sexually assaulted women, medical students should have basic knowledge of and sensitivity regarding this subject. Another common women’s public health issue is induced abortion. In countries where access to abortion is restricted, there is a tendency towards unhealthy abortion. Aims: The aims of this study are: (1) to determine the attitudes and opinions of Marmara University Medical Faculty students about sexual assault against women and induced abortion and (2) to propose an educational program for medical students about sexual assault and abortion. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Methods: The questionnaires were self-administered and the data were analyzed using SPSS v.15.0. First, the descriptive statistics were analyzed, followed by Chi-square for contingency tests assessing differences in attitudes toward sexual assault and induced abortion by factors such as gender and educational term. Differences were considered statistically significant at p<0.05. Results: About 89.6% of the participants (n=266) reported that they had never been sexually assaulted and about 11.5% of the women (n=19) had been sexually assaulted. There was no significant relationship between previous sexual assault and gender (p>0.05). Although there was no significant difference regarding the extent of punishment by victim’s status as a virgin, 21.3% (n=63) agreed that punishment should be more severe when the victim was a virgin. About 40.7% (n=120) agreed that the legal period of abortion in Turkey (10 weeks) should be longer. The majority (86.1%, n=255) agreed that legally prohibiting abortions causes an increase in unhealthy abortions. Conclusion: An educational program on these issues should be developed for medical students. PMID:27403386

Estimation of the long-term slip, surface uplift and block rotation along the northern strand of the North Anatolian Fault Zone: Inferences from geomorphology of the Almacık Block

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yıldırım, Cengiz; Tüysüz, Okan

2017-11-01

The Almacık Block is one of the key morphotectonic units in the eastern Marmara Region associated with the long-term slip partitioning within the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). In this study, we provide new geomorphic reconstructions of offset drainage basins, morphometric analysis of topography, and longitudinal profiles of the rivers crossing different flanks of the Almacık Block. Our geomorphic reconstructions of offset drainage basins along the Hendek and Karadere faults imply mean offsets of 2.3 ± 0.4 km and 8.4 ± 0.7 km, respectively, during the Quaternary. Our dataset also imply that slip partitioning occurs in a broader zone than previously proposed, and that the total 10.7 ± 0.6 km offset along the Hendek and Karadere faults of the northern strand must be taken into account for long-term slip partitioning in the Eastern Marmara Region. Together with previously suggested 10 km offset along the southern strand (Yaltırak, 2002), 16 ± 1.0 km offset along the middle strand (Özalp et al., 2013) and the 52 ± 1.0 km offset along the Mudurnu Segment of the northern strand (Akbayram et al., 2016) our newly proposed geomorphic markers raise the cumulative offset in the eastern Marmara region associated with the NAF to 89 ± 1.0 km since the Latest Pliocene - Quaternary. In addition to these lateral displacements, our morphometric analysis and longitudinal profiles of the rivers imply up to 1130 ± 130 m surface uplift of the Almacık Block as a combined result of vertical displacement within the deformation zone of the northern strand of the NAFZ. Finally, by assuming that river basins act as passive deformation markers, our basin azimuth analyses imply 20° ± 2° clockwise rotation of the Almacık Block associated with the NAFZ.

The influence of sea fog inhomogeneity on its microphysical characteristics retrieval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengzhou; Pan, Delu; Gong, Fang; He, Xianqiang

2008-10-01

A study on the effect of sea fog inhomogeneity on its microphysical parameters retrieval is presented. On the condition that the average liquid water content is linear vertically and the power spectrum spectral index sets 2.0, we generate a 3D sea fog fields by controlling the total liquid water contents greater than 0.04g/m3 based on the iterative method for generating scaling log-normal random field with an energy spectrum and a fragmentized cloud algorithm. Based on the fog field, the radiance at the wavelengths of 0.67 and 1.64 μm are simulated with 3D radiative transfer model SHDOM, and then the fog optical thickness and effective particle radius are simultaneously retrieved using the generic look-up-table AVHRR cloud algorithm. By comparing those fog optical thickness and effective particle radius, the influence of sea fog inhomogeneity on its properties retrieval is discussed. It exhibits the system bias when inferring sea fog physical properties from satellite measurements based on the assumption of plane parallel homogeneous atmosphere. And the bias depends on the solar zenith angel. The optical thickness is overrated while the effective particle radius is under-estimated at two solar zenith angle 30° and 60°. Those results show that it is necessary for sea fog true characteristics retrieval to develop a new algorithm using the 3D radiative transfer.

Landslide Hazard Analysis with Multidisciplinary Approach: İstanbul example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kılıç, Osman; Baş, Mahmut; Yahya Menteşe, Emin; Tarih, Ahmet; Duran, Kemal; Gümüş, Salim; Rıza Yapar, Evrens; Emin Karasu, Muhammed; Acar Kara, Sema; Karaman, Abdullah; Özalaybey, Serdar; Zor, Ekrem; Ediger, Vedat; Arpat, Esen; Özgül, Necdet; Polat, Feyzi; Doǧan, Uǧur; Çakır, Ziyadin

2017-04-01

There are several methods that can be utilized for describing the landslide mechanisms. While some of them are commonly used, there are relatively new methods that have been proven to be useful. Obviously, each method has its own limitations and thus integrated use of these methods contributes to obtaining a realistic landslide model. The slopes of Küçükçekmece and Büyükçekmece Lagoons located at the Marmara Sea coast of İstanbul, Turkey, are among most specific examples of complex type landslides. The landslides in the area started developing at low sea level, and appears to ceased or at least slowed down to be at minimum after the sea level rise, as oppose to the still-active landslides that continue to cause damage especially in the valley slopes above the recent sea level between the two lagoons. To clarify the characteristics of these slope movements and classify them in most accurate way, Directorate of Earthquake and Ground Research of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality launched a project in cooperation with Marmara Research Center of The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK). The project benefits the utility of the techniques of different disciplines such as geology, geophysics, geomorphology, hydrogeology, geotechnics, geodesy, remote sensing and meteorology. The observations include detailed mapping of topography by airborne LIDAR, deformation monitoring with more than 80 GPS stations, Ground Based Synthetic Aperture Radar measurements in 8 critical zones, 81 geological drills and more than 20 km of geophysical measurements. With three years of monitoring, the acquired data, and the results such as landslide hazard map, were integrated in GIS database for the purpose of easing tasks for the urban planners and the decision makers.

Integrating Geological and Geodetic Surveying Techniques for Landslide Deformation Monitoring: Istanbul Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menteşe, E. Y.; Kilic, O.; BAS, M.; Tarih, A.; Duran, K.; Gumus, S.; Yapar, E. R.; Karasu, M. E.; Mehmetoğlu, H.; Karaman, A.; Edi˙ger, V.; Kosma, R. C.; Ozalaybey, S.; Zor, E.; Arpat, E.; Polat, F.; Dogan, U.; Cakir, Z.; Erkan, B.

2017-12-01

There are several methods that can be utilized for describing the landslide mechanisms. While some of them are commonly used, there are relatively new methods that have been proven to be useful. Obviously, each method has its own limitations and thus integrated use of these methods contributes to obtaining a realistic landslide model. The slopes of Küçükçekmece and Büyükçekmece Lagoons located at the Marmara Sea coast of İstanbul, Turkey, are among most specific examples of complex type landslides. The landslides in the area started developing at low sea level, and appears to ceased or at least slowed down to be at minimum after the sea level rise, as oppose to the still-active landslides that continue to cause damage especially in the valley slopes above the recent sea level between the two lagoons. To clarify the characteristics of these slope movements and classify them in most accurate way, Directorate of Earthquake and Ground Research of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality launched a project in cooperation with Marmara Research Center of The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK). The project benefits the utility of the techniques of different disciplines such as geology, geophysics, geomorphology, hydrogeology, geotechnics, geodesy, remote sensing and meteorology. Specifically, this study focuses on two main axes of these techniques, namely: geological and geodetic. The reason for selecting these disciplines is because of their efficiency and power to understand the landslide mechanism in the area. Main approaches used in these studies are comprised of geological drills, inclinometer measurements, GPS surveys and SAR (both satellite and ground based) techniques. Integration of the results gathered from these techniques led the project team to comprehend critical aspects of landslide phenomenon in the area and produce precise landslide hazard maps that are basic instruments for a resilient urban development.

Spontaneous Trait Inferences on Social Media.

PubMed

Levordashka, Ana; Utz, Sonja

2017-01-01

The present research investigates whether spontaneous trait inferences occur under conditions characteristic of social media and networking sites: nonextreme, ostensibly self-generated content, simultaneous presentation of multiple cues, and self-paced browsing. We used an established measure of trait inferences (false recognition paradigm) and a direct assessment of impressions. Without being asked to do so, participants spontaneously formed impressions of people whose status updates they saw. Our results suggest that trait inferences occurred from nonextreme self-generated content, which is commonly found in social media updates (Experiment 1) and when nine status updates from different people were presented in parallel (Experiment 2). Although inferences did occur during free browsing, the results suggest that participants did not necessarily associate the traits with the corresponding status update authors (Experiment 3). Overall, the findings suggest that spontaneous trait inferences occur on social media. We discuss implications for online communication and research on spontaneous trait inferences.

Predicting relative sea level changes at the aftermath of Marinoan (635 Ma) Snowball meltdown

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irie, Y.; Nakada, M.; Okuno, J.; Bao, H.

2016-12-01

Earth system recovery from a Snowball state constitutes one of the best tests of the resilience of life on planet Earth. A distinct and probably brief relative sea level (RSL) drop has been identified in the cap dolostones deposited in a general transgression sequence at the aftermath of Marinoan Snowball meltdown in South China and other late Neoproterozoic blocks. However, the magnitude and duration or the very existence of this RSL drop event can vary at different geographical sites because of spatial and temporal variations in sea level due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) even for tectonically stable areas. An accurate prediction of this drop can in turn help us infer independently the rate of dynamic recovery of the Earth system from a Snowball state, e.g. the timing and duration of the Marinoan 17O depletion (MOSD) event that was also closely linked to the rise and drawdown of atmospheric O2 and CO2, respectively. Here we model the RSL changes by considering all GIA-related relaxation processes. We evaluated the RSL to the sea level at 10 Myr after the complete glacial meltdown and tested slightly different paleogeographic configurations. Our modeling results show that the RSL drop occurs in the syn-deglacial phase (melting phase) for the inland regions and in the post-deglacial phase (time after the complete melting) for continental margins. The RSL drop in the post-deglacial phase is mainly determined by the relaxation processes with a timescale of longer than 20 kyr. The predicted RSL change in South China for lower mantle viscosity of 1022-1023 Pa s and a syn-deglacial time of <100 kyr is consistent with the observationally inferred RSL change regardless of uncertainties on the length of the continental shelf or the paleogeography of South China. A comparison between our model predicted and sedimentary-record inferred RSL change in South China put an independent constraint on the duration of the MOSD event at 70 kyr or shorter.

The inference from a single case: moral versus scientific inferences in implementing new biotechnologies.

PubMed

Hofmann, B

2008-06-01

Are there similarities between scientific and moral inference? This is the key question in this article. It takes as its point of departure an instance of one person's story in the media changing both Norwegian public opinion and a brand-new Norwegian law prohibiting the use of saviour siblings. The case appears to falsify existing norms and to establish new ones. The analysis of this case reveals similarities in the modes of inference in science and morals, inasmuch as (a) a single case functions as a counter-example to an existing rule; (b) there is a common presupposition of stability, similarity and order, which makes it possible to reason from a few cases to a general rule; and (c) this makes it possible to hold things together and retain order. In science, these modes of inference are referred to as falsification, induction and consistency. In morals, they have a variety of other names. Hence, even without abandoning the fact-value divide, there appear to be similarities between inference in science and inference in morals, which may encourage communication across the boundaries between "the two cultures" and which are relevant to medical humanities.

SST Patterns, Atmospheric Variability, and Inferred Sensitivities in the CMIP5 Model Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marvel, K.; Pincus, R.; Schmidt, G. A.

2017-12-01

An emerging consensus suggests that global mean feedbacks to increasing temperature are not constant in time. If feedbacks become more positive in the future, the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) inferred from recent observed global energy budget constraints is likely to be biased low. Time-varying feedbacks are largely tied to evolving sea-surface temperature patterns. In particular, recent anomalously cool conditions in the tropical Pacific may have triggered feedbacks that are not reproduced in equilibrium simulations where the tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean have had time to warm. Here, we use AMIP and CMIP5 historical simulations to explore the ECS that may be inferred over the recent historical period. We find that in all but one CMIP5 model, the feedbacks triggered by observed SST patterns are significantly less positive than those arising from historical simulations in which SST patterns are allowed to evolve unconstrained. However, there are substantial variations in feedbacks even when the SST pattern is held fixed, suggesting that atmospheric and land variability contribute to uncertainty in the estimates of ECS obtained from recent observations of the global energy budget.

Visual pigments of marine carnivores: pinnipeds, polar bear, and sea otter.

PubMed

Levenson, David H; Ponganis, Paul J; Crognale, Michael A; Deegan, Jess F; Dizon, Andy; Jacobs, Gerald H

2006-08-01

Rod and cone visual pigments of 11 marine carnivores were evaluated. Rod, middle/long-wavelength sensitive (M/L) cone, and short-wavelength sensitive (S) cone opsin (if present) sequences were obtained from retinal mRNA. Spectral sensitivity was inferred through evaluation of known spectral tuning residues. The rod pigments of all but one of the pinnipeds were similar to those of the sea otter, polar bear, and most other terrestrial carnivores with spectral peak sensitivities (lambda(max)) of 499 or 501 nm. Similarly, the M/L cone pigments of the pinnipeds, polar bear, and otter had inferred lambda(max) of 545 to 560 nm. Only the rod opsin sequence of the elephant seal had sensitivity characteristic of adaptation for vision in the marine environment, with an inferred lambda(max) of 487 nm. No evidence of S cones was found for any of the pinnipeds. The polar bear and otter had S cones with inferred lambda(max) of approximately 440 nm. Flicker-photometric ERG was additionally used to examine the in situ sensitivities of three species of pinniped. Despite the use of conditions previously shown to evoke cone responses in other mammals, no cone responses could be elicited from any of these pinnipeds. Rod photoreceptor responses for all three species were as predicted by the genetic data.

The modest seismicity of the northern Red Sea rift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Neil C.; Stewart, Ian C. F.

2018-05-01

Inferring tectonic movements from earthquakes (`seismotectonics') relies on earthquakes faithfully recording tectonic motions. In the northern half of the Red Sea, however, events of magnitude 5.0 and above are almost entirely absent from global catalogues, even though GPS and other plate motion data suggest that the basin is actively rifting at ˜10 mm yr-1. Seismic moments computed here from event magnitudes contributed to the International Seismology Centre (ISC) suggest that the moment release rate is more than an order of magnitude smaller than for the southern Red Sea and for the Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR), which is spreading at a comparable rate to the central Red Sea and is more remote from recording stations. A smaller moment release rate in the northern Red Sea might be anticipated from its smaller spreading rate, but seismic coupling coefficients, which account for spreading rate variations, are also one order of magnitude smaller than for the other two areas. We explore potential explanations for this apparently reduced seismicity. The northern Red Sea is almost continuously covered with thick evaporites and overlying Plio-Pleistocene sediments. These deposits may have reduced the thickness of the seismogenic layer, for example, by elevating lithosphere temperatures by a thermal blanketing effect or by leading to excess pore fluid pressures that reduce effective stress. The presence of subdued seismicity here implies that tectonic movements can in places be poorly recorded by earthquake data and requires that alternative data be sought when investigating the active tectonics of sedimented rifts in particular.

Network inference using informative priors

PubMed Central

Mukherjee, Sach; Speed, Terence P.

2008-01-01

Recent years have seen much interest in the study of systems characterized by multiple interacting components. A class of statistical models called graphical models, in which graphs are used to represent probabilistic relationships between variables, provides a framework for formal inference regarding such systems. In many settings, the object of inference is the network structure itself. This problem of “network inference” is well known to be a challenging one. However, in scientific settings there is very often existing information regarding network connectivity. A natural idea then is to take account of such information during inference. This article addresses the question of incorporating prior information into network inference. We focus on directed models called Bayesian networks, and use Markov chain Monte Carlo to draw samples from posterior distributions over network structures. We introduce prior distributions on graphs capable of capturing information regarding network features including edges, classes of edges, degree distributions, and sparsity. We illustrate our approach in the context of systems biology, applying our methods to network inference in cancer signaling. PMID:18799736

Deep-Water Acoustic Anomalies from Methane Hydrate in the Bering Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Warren T.; Barth, Ginger A.; Scholl, David W.; Lebedeva-Ivanova, Nina

2015-01-01

A recent expedition to the central Bering Sea, one of the most remote locations in the world, has yielded observations confirming gas and gas hydrates in this deep ocean basin. Significant sound speed anomalies found using inversion of pre-stack seismic data are observed in association with variable seismic amplitude anomalies in the thick sediment column. The anomalously low sound speeds below the inferred base of methane hydrate stability indicate the presence of potentially large quantities of gas-phase methane associated with each velocity-amplitude anomaly (VAMP). The data acquired are of such high quality that quantitative estimates of the concentrations of gas hydrates in the upper few hundred meters of sediment are also possible, and analyses are under way to make these estimates. Several VAMPs were specifically targeted in this survey; others were crossed incidentally. Indications of many dozens or hundreds of these features exist throughout the portion of the Bering Sea relevant to the U.S. extended continental shelf (ECS) consistent with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. 

Palaeoenvironmental reconstruction from Lake Iznik (W Turkey) and Üçaǧizli Cave (S Turkey) - implications for human dispersal in the Upper Palaeolithic along coastal Anatolia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viehberg, Finn A.; Assanov, Sergey; Kuhn, Steven; Reed, Jane; Ülgen, Umut B.; Namık Çaǧatay, M.; Melles, Martin

2013-04-01

Transcontinental dispersal of modern humans from the Near East to the Balkans in the Middle and Upper Palaeolithic is expected to have followed the coastline (i.e., Yarımburgaz, Karain and Üçaǧızlı caves). Lake Iznik is situated 80 km south of the Bosphorus (Western Turkey) close to the Marmara Sea. Here we retrieved a continuous sediment record covering the past ~40 ka cal BP. A multiproxy approach enabled us to reconstruct the environmental history. We included biological proxies i.e., diatoms, cladocerans and ostracods as biological proxies, but also physical and geochemical proxies were analysed. Geomorphological findings in the lake basin and geochemical analyses hint to changing lake water levels at least since 40 ka cal BP that lasted until c. 11 cal. kyr BP. This supports the theory of persisting dry climate conditions before the onset of the Holocene also inferred from geochemical sediment proxies (i.e., element analysis), diatoms and ostracod shell chemistry. The Upper Palaeolithic sequences (45-33 ka cal BP) at the Üçaǧızlı Cave (Hatay) yield clear evidence of the technological transition between Initial Upper Palaeolithic and Ahmarian, but also documents major shifts in diet of past hunting community. The identified animal remains in the cave sequence change from larger ungulates to smaller ungulates and increase in fish and shellfish. It is proposed that the compositional change in game is not solitarily caused by technology advances, but also by environmental and climatic changes as inferred from sediment archives of Lake Iznik.

Active inference, communication and hermeneutics☆

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Frith, Christopher D.

2015-01-01

Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others – during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions – both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then – in principle – they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. PMID:25957007

Active inference, communication and hermeneutics.

PubMed

Friston, Karl J; Frith, Christopher D

2015-07-01

Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others--during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions--both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then--in principle--they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Relating the microwave radar cross section to the sea surface stress - Physics and algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weissman, David E.; Plant, William J.; Brown, Robert A.; Davidson, Kenneth L.; Shaw, William J.

1991-01-01

The FASINEX (Frontal Air-Sea Interaction Experiment) provided a unique data set with coincident airborne measurements of the ocean surface radar cross section (at Ku-band) and surface windstress. It is being analyzed to create new algorithms and to better understand the air-sea variables that can have a strong influence on the RCS (radar cross section). Several studies of portions of data from the FASINEX indicate that the RCS is more dependent on the surface stress than on the wind speed. Radar data have been acquired by the JPL and NRL groups. The data span 12 different flight days. Stress measurements can be inferred from ship-board instruments and from aircraft closely following the scatterometers.

Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales

PubMed Central

Foster, Gavin L.; Rohling, Eelco J.

2013-01-01

On 103- to 106-year timescales, global sea level is determined largely by the volume of ice stored on land, which in turn largely reflects the thermal state of the Earth system. Here we use observations from five well-studied time slices covering the last 40 My to identify a well-defined and clearly sigmoidal relationship between atmospheric CO2 and sea level on geological (near-equilibrium) timescales. This strongly supports the dominant role of CO2 in determining Earth’s climate on these timescales and suggests that other variables that influence long-term global climate (e.g., topography, ocean circulation) play a secondary role. The relationship between CO2 and sea level we describe portrays the “likely” (68% probability) long-term sea-level response after Earth system adjustment over many centuries. Because it appears largely independent of other boundary condition changes, it also may provide useful long-range predictions of future sea level. For instance, with CO2 stabilized at 400–450 ppm (as required for the frequently quoted “acceptable warming” of 2 °C), or even at AD 2011 levels of 392 ppm, we infer a likely (68% confidence) long-term sea-level rise of more than 9 m above the present. Therefore, our results imply that to avoid significantly elevated sea level in the long term, atmospheric CO2 should be reduced to levels similar to those of preindustrial times. PMID:23292932

Inference of viscosity jump at 670 km depth and lower mantle viscosity structure from GIA observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakada, Masao; Okuno, Jun'ichi; Irie, Yoshiya

2018-03-01

A viscosity model with an exponential profile described by temperature (T) and pressure (P) distributions and constant activation energy (E_{{{um}}}^{{*}} for the upper mantle and E_{{{lm}}}^* for the lower mantle) and volume (V_{{{um}}}^{{*}} and V_{{{lm}}}^*) is employed in inferring the viscosity structure of the Earth's mantle from observations of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). We first construct standard viscosity models with an average upper-mantle viscosity ({\\bar{η }_{{{um}}}}) of 2 × 1020 Pa s, a typical value for the oceanic upper-mantle viscosity, satisfying the observationally derived three GIA-related observables, GIA-induced rate of change of the degree-two zonal harmonic of the geopotential, {\\dot{J}_2}, and differential relative sea level (RSL) changes for the Last Glacial Maximum sea levels at Barbados and Bonaparte Gulf in Australia and for RSL changes at 6 kyr BP for Karumba and Halifax Bay in Australia. Standard viscosity models inferred from three GIA-related observables are characterized by a viscosity of ˜1023 Pa s in the deep mantle for an assumed viscosity at 670 km depth, ηlm(670), of (1 - 50) × 1021 Pa s. Postglacial RSL changes at Southport, Bermuda and Everglades in the intermediate region of the North American ice sheet, largely dependent on its gross melting history, have a crucial potential for inference of a viscosity jump at 670 km depth. The analyses of these RSL changes based on the viscosity models with {\\bar{η }_{{{um}}}} ≥ 2 × 1020 Pa s and lower-mantle viscosity structures for the standard models yield permissible {\\bar{η }_{{{um}}}} and ηlm (670) values, although there is a trade-off between the viscosity and ice history models. Our preferred {\\bar{η }_{{{um}}}} and ηlm (670) values are ˜(7 - 9) × 1020 and ˜1022 Pa s, respectively, and the {\\bar{η }_{{{um}}}} is higher than that for the typical value of oceanic upper mantle, which may reflect a moderate laterally heterogeneous upper

Direct observations of American eels migrating across the continental shelf to the Sargasso Sea

PubMed Central

Béguer-Pon, Mélanie; Castonguay, Martin; Shan, Shiliang; Benchetrit, José; Dodson, Julian J.

2015-01-01

Since inferring spawning areas from larval distributions in the Sargasso Sea a century ago, the oceanic migration of adult American eels has remained a mystery. No adult eel has ever been observed migrating in the open ocean or in the spawning area. Here, we track movements of maturing eels equipped with pop-up satellite archival tags from the Scotian Shelf (Canada) into the open ocean, with one individual migrating 2,400 km to the northern limit of the spawning site in the Sargasso Sea. The reconstructed routes suggest a migration in two phases: one over the continental shelf and along its edge in shallow waters; the second in deeper waters straight south towards the spawning area. This study is the first direct evidence of adult Anguilla migrating to the Sargasso Sea and represents an important step forward in the understanding of routes and migratory cues. PMID:26505325

The shear-wave splitting in the crust and the upper mantle around the Bohai Sea, North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yutao, Shi; Yuan, Gao; Lingxue, Tai; Yuanyuan, Fu

2015-11-01

In order to infer the distribution of local stress and the deep geodynamic process in North China, this study detects seismic anisotropy in the crust and upper mantle beneath the Bohai Sea area. A total of 535 local shear-wave and 721 XKS (including SKS, PKS and SKKS phases) splitting measurements were obtained from stations in permanent regional seismograph networks and a temporary seismic network called ZBnet-E. The dominant fast polarization orientation of local shear-waves in the crust is nearly East-West, suggesting an East-West direction of local maximum compressive stress in the area. Nearly North-South fast orientation was obtained at some stations in the Tan-Lu fault belt and the Zhang-Bo seismic belt. The average fast orientation from XKS splitting analysis is 87.4° measured clockwise from the North. The average time-delays of XKS splitting are range from 0.54 s to 1.92 s, corresponding to a 60-210 km thick layer of anisotropy. The measured results indicate that upper mantle anisotropy beneath Bohai Sea area, even the eastern part of North China, is mainly from asthenospheric mantle flow from the subduction of the Pacific plate. From the complicated anisotropic characteristics in this study, we infer that there might be multiple mechanisms in the crust and upper mantle around the Bohai Sea area that led to the observed anisotropy.

Social Dynamics Modeling and Inference

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-03-29

AFRL-AFOSR-JP-TR-2018-0027 Social Dynamics Modeling and Inference Kwang-Cheng Chen NATIONAL TAIWAN UNIVERSITY Final Report 03/29/2018 DISTRIBUTION A...DATES COVERED (From - To)      14 May 2014 to 13 May 2017 4.  TITLE AND SUBTITLE Social Dynamics Modeling and Inference 5a.  CONTRACT NUMBER 5b.  GRANT...behavior in human society, to set up the foundation of future possible inference and even control of social collective behavior. Two primary

The role of familiarity in binary choice inferences.

PubMed

Honda, Hidehito; Abe, Keiga; Matsuka, Toshihiko; Yamagishi, Kimihiko

2011-07-01

In research on the recognition heuristic (Goldstein & Gigerenzer, Psychological Review, 109, 75-90, 2002), knowledge of recognized objects has been categorized as "recognized" or "unrecognized" without regard to the degree of familiarity of the recognized object. In the present article, we propose a new inference model--familiarity-based inference. We hypothesize that when subjective knowledge levels (familiarity) of recognized objects differ, the degree of familiarity of recognized objects will influence inferences. Specifically, people are predicted to infer that the more familiar object in a pair of two objects has a higher criterion value on the to-be-judged dimension. In two experiments, using a binary choice task, we examined inferences about populations in a pair of two cities. Results support predictions of familiarity-based inference. Participants inferred that the more familiar city in a pair was more populous. Statistical modeling showed that individual differences in familiarity-based inference lie in the sensitivity to differences in familiarity. In addition, we found that familiarity-based inference can be generally regarded as an ecologically rational inference. Furthermore, when cue knowledge about the inference criterion was available, participants made inferences based on the cue knowledge about population instead of familiarity. Implications of the role of familiarity in psychological processes are discussed.

Multimodel inference to quantify the relative importance of abiotic factors in the population dynamics of marine zooplankton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Everaert, Gert; Deschutter, Yana; De Troch, Marleen; Janssen, Colin R.; De Schamphelaere, Karel

2018-05-01

The effect of multiple stressors on marine ecosystems remains poorly understood and most of the knowledge available is related to phytoplankton. To partly address this knowledge gap, we tested if combining multimodel inference with generalized additive modelling could quantify the relative contribution of environmental variables on the population dynamics of a zooplankton species in the Belgian part of the North Sea. Hence, we have quantified the relative contribution of oceanographic variables (e.g. water temperature, salinity, nutrient concentrations, and chlorophyll a concentrations) and anthropogenic chemicals (i.e. polychlorinated biphenyls) to the density of Acartia clausi. We found that models with water temperature and chlorophyll a concentration explained ca. 73% of the population density of the marine copepod. Multimodel inference in combination with regression-based models are a generic way to disentangle and quantify multiple stressor-induced changes in marine ecosystems. Future-oriented simulations of copepod densities suggested increased copepod densities under predicted environmental changes.

Stress Variation Caused by the Terrestrial Water Storage Inferred from GRACE Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, H.; Wen, L.

2014-12-01

We estimate stress variation caused by the terrestrial water storage (TWS) change from 2003 to 2013. We first infer the TWS change from the monthly gravity field change in the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). We then estimate the stress change at the Earth's surface caused by elastic loading of mass change associated with the inferred TWS change.The monthly spherical harmonics of the GRACE gravity solutions are processed using a decorrelation filter and Gaussian smoothing, to suppress the noise in high degree and order, following the approach of Swenson and Wahr [2006] and Chen et al. [2007]. The gravity variation associated with the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is further removed from the GRACE solutions based on a geodynamical model by Paulson et al. [2007]. The inferred TWS changes exhibit a trend of increase from 2003 to 2013 in Amazon basin, southern Africa, the northern United State America (USA) and Queen Maud Land of Antarctica, and a trend of decrease in the same period in central Argentina, southern Chile, northern India, northern Iran, Alaska of the USA, Greenland and Marie Byrd Land of Antarctica.Surface stress variation due to the TWS loading is calculated, assuming an incompressible and self-gravitating Earth, with an elastic crust and a viscoelastic mantle overlying an inviscid core based on PREM model. We will present the geographical distribution of the stress variation caused by the TWS loading and discuss its possible implications. Chen, J. L., C. R. Wilson, B. D. Tapley, and S. Grand (2007), GRACE detects coseismic and postseismic deformation from the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, Geophys Res Lett, 34(13), doi:10.1029/2007GL030356. Paulson, A., S. J. Zhong, and J. Wahr (2007), Inference of mantle viscosity from GRACE and relative sea level data, Geophys J Int, 171(2), 497-508, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03556.x. Swenson, S., and J. Wahr (2006), Post-processing removal of correlated errors in GRACE data, Geophys Res Lett, 33

Sea-level variability over the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, Robert; Horton, Benjamin; Kemp, Andrew; Engelhart, Simon; Little, Chris

2017-04-01

The Common Era (CE) sea-level response to climate forcing, and its relationship to centennial-timescale climate variability such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), is fragmentary relative to other proxy-derived climate records (e.g. atmospheric surface temperature). However, the Atlantic coast of North America provides a rich sedimentary record of CE relative sea level with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to inform mechanisms underlying regional and global sea level variability and their relationship to other climate proxies. This coast has a small tidal range, improving the precision of sea-level reconstructions. Coastal subsidence (from glacial isostatic adjustment, GIA) creates accommodation space that is filled by salt-marsh peat and preserves accurate and precise sea-level indicators and abundant material for radiocarbon dating. In addition to longer term GIA induced land-level change from ongoing collapse of the Laurentide forebulge, these records are ideally situated to capture climate-driven sea level changes. The western North Atlantic Ocean sea level is sensitive to static equilibrium effects from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as well as large-scale changes in ocean circulation and winds. Our reconstructions reveal two distinct patterns in sea-level during the CE along the United States Atlantic coast: (1) South of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to Florida sea-level rise is essentially flat, with the record dominated by long-term geological processes until the onset of historic rates of rise in the late 19th century; (2) North of Cape Hatteras to Connecticut, sea level rise to maximum around 1000CE, a sea-level minimum around 1500 CE, and a long-term sea-level rise through the second half of the second millennium. The northern-intensified sea-level fall beginning 1000 is coincident with shifts toward persistent positive NAO-like atmospheric states inferred from other proxy records and is consistent with

Distribution of sea anemones (Cnidaria, Actiniaria) in Korea analyzed by environmental clustering

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cha, H.-R.; Buddemeier, R.W.; Fautin, D.G.; Sandhei, P.

2004-01-01

Using environmental data and the geospatial clustering tools LOICZView and DISCO, we empirically tested the postulated existence and boundaries of four biogeographic regions in the southern part of the Korean peninsula. Environmental variables used included wind speed, sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, tidal amplitude, and the chlorophyll spectral signal. Our analysis confirmed the existence of four biogeographic regions, but the details of the borders between them differ from those previously postulated. Specimen-level distribution records of intertidal sea anemones were mapped; their distribution relative to the environmental data supported the importance of the environmental parameters we selected in defining suitable habitats. From the geographic coincidence between anemone distribution and the clusters based on environmental variables, we infer that geospatial clustering has the power to delimit ranges for marine organisms within relatively small geographical areas.

Children's and Adults' Judgments of the Certainty of Deductive Inferences, Inductive Inferences, and Guesses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pillow, Bradford H.; Pearson, RaeAnne M.; Hecht, Mary; Bremer, Amanda

2010-01-01

Children and adults rated their own certainty following inductive inferences, deductive inferences, and guesses. Beginning in kindergarten, participants rated deductions as more certain than weak inductions or guesses. Deductions were rated as more certain than strong inductions beginning in Grade 3, and fourth-grade children and adults…

Bacterial community diversity of the deep-sea octocoral Paramuricea placomus.

PubMed

Kellogg, Christina A; Ross, Steve W; Brooke, Sandra D

2016-01-01

Compared to tropical corals, much less is known about deep-sea coral biology and ecology. Although the microbial communities of some deep-sea corals have been described, this is the first study to characterize the bacterial community associated with the deep-sea octocoral, Paramuricea placomus . Samples from five colonies of P. placomus were collected from Baltimore Canyon (379-382 m depth) in the Atlantic Ocean off the east coast of the United States of America. DNA was extracted from the coral samples and 16S rRNA gene amplicons were pyrosequenced using V4-V5 primers. Three samples sequenced deeply (>4,000 sequences each) and were further analyzed. The dominant microbial phylum was Proteobacteria, but other major phyla included Firmicutes and Planctomycetes. A conserved community of bacterial taxa held in common across the three P. placomus colonies was identified, comprising 68-90% of the total bacterial community depending on the coral individual. The bacterial community of P. placomus does not appear to include the genus Endozoicomonas , which has been found previously to be the dominant bacterial associate in several temperate and tropical gorgonians. Inferred functionality suggests the possibility of nitrogen cycling by the core bacterial community.

Bacterial community diversity of the deep-sea octocoral Paramuricea placomus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kellogg, Christina A.; Ross, Steve W.; Brooke, Sandra D.

2016-01-01

Compared to tropical corals, much less is known about deep-sea coral biology and ecology. Although the microbial communities of some deep-sea corals have been described, this is the first study to characterize the bacterial community associated with the deep-sea octocoral, Paramuricea placomus. Samples from five colonies of P. placomus were collected from Baltimore Canyon (379–382 m depth) in the Atlantic Ocean off the east coast of the United States of America. DNA was extracted from the coral samples and 16S rRNA gene amplicons were pyrosequenced using V4-V5 primers. Three samples sequenced deeply (>4,000 sequences each) and were further analyzed. The dominant microbial phylum was Proteobacteria, but other major phyla included Firmicutes and Planctomycetes. A conserved community of bacterial taxa held in common across the three P. placomuscolonies was identified, comprising 68–90% of the total bacterial community depending on the coral individual. The bacterial community of P. placomusdoes not appear to include the genus Endozoicomonas, which has been found previously to be the dominant bacterial associate in several temperate and tropical gorgonians. Inferred functionality suggests the possibility of nitrogen cycling by the core bacterial community.

Results from the latest SN-4 multi-parametric benthic observatory experiment (MARsite EU project) in the Gulf of Izmit, Turkey: oceanographic, chemical and seismic monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Embriaco, Davide; Marinaro, Giuditta; Frugoni, Francesco; Giovanetti, Gabriele; Monna, Stephen; Etiope, Giuseppe; Gasperini, Luca; Çağatay, Namık; Favali, Paolo

2015-04-01

An autonomous and long-term multiparametric benthic observatory (SN-4) was designed to study gas seepage and seismic energy release along the submerged segment of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). Episodic gas seepage occurs at the seafloor in the Gulf of Izmit (Sea of Marmara, NW Turkey) along this submerged segment of the NAF, which ruptured during the 1999 Mw7.4 Izmit earthquake. The SN-4 observatory already operated in the Gulf of Izmit at the western end of the 1999 Izmit earthquake rupture for about one-year at 166 m water depth during the 2009-2010 experiment (EGU2014-13412-1, EGU General Assembly 2014). SN-4 was re-deployed in the same site for a new long term mission (September 2013 - April 2014) in the framework of MARsite (New Directions in Seismic Hazard assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite, http://marsite.eu/ ) EC project, which aims at evaluating seismic risk and managing of long-term monitoring activities in the Marmara Sea. A main scientific objective of the SN-4 experiment is to investigate the possible correlations between seafloor methane seepage and release of seismic energy. We used the same site of the 2009-2010 campaign to verify both the occurrence of previously observed phenomena and the reliability of results obtained in the previous experiment (Embriaco et al., 2014, doi:10.1093/gji/ggt436). In particular, we are interested in the detection of gas release at the seafloor, in the role played by oceanographic phenomena in this detection, and in the association of gas and seismic energy release. The scientific payload included, among other instruments, a three-component broad-band seismometer, and gas and oceanographic sensors. We present a technical description of the observatory, including the data acquisition and control system, results from the preliminary analysis of this new multidisciplinary data set, and a comparison with the previous experiment.

Inland extent of the Weddell Sea Rift imaged by new aerogeophysical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Tom A.; Ferraccioli, Fausto; Ross, Neil; Corr, Hugh F. J.; Leat, Philip T.; Bingham, Rob G.; Rippin, David M.; le Brocq, Anne; Siegert, Martin J.

2013-02-01

The Weddell Sea Rift was a major focus for Jurassic extension and magmatism during the early stages of Gondwana break-up and underlies the Weddell Sea Embayment, which separates East Antarctica from a collage of crustal blocks in West Antarctica. Newly-collected aerogeophysical data over the catchments of Institute and Möller ice streams reveal the inland extent of the Weddell Sea Rift against the Ellsworth-Whitmore block and a hitherto unknown major left-lateral strike slip boundary between East and West Antarctica. Aeromagnetic and gravity anomalies define the regional subglacial extent of Proterozoic basement, Middle Cambrian rift-related volcanic rocks, Jurassic intrusions and sedimentary rocks of inferred post-Jurassic age. 2D and 3D magnetic depth-to-source estimates were used to help constrain joint magnetic and gravity models for the region. The models reveal that Proterozoic crust similar to that exposed at Haag Nunataks, extends southeast of the Ellsworth Mountains to the margin of the Coastal Basins. Thick granitic Jurassic intrusions are modelled at the transition between the Ellsworth-Whitmore block and the thinner crust of the Weddell Sea Rift and within the Pagano Shear Zone. The crust beneath the inland extension of the Weddell Sea Rift is modelled as being either ~ 4 km thinner compared to the adjacent Ellsworth-Whitmore block or as underlain by an up to 8 km thick mafic underplate.

Under the sea ice: Exploring the relationship between sea ice and the foraging behaviour of southern elephant seals in East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labrousse, Sara; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Fraser, Alexander D.; Massom, Robert A.; Reid, Phillip; Sumner, Michael; Guinet, Christophe; Harcourt, Robert; McMahon, Clive; Bailleul, Frédéric; Hindell, Mark A.; Charrassin, Jean-Benoit

2017-08-01

Investigating ecological relationships between predators and their environment is essential to understand the response of marine ecosystems to climate variability and change. This is particularly true in polar regions, where sea ice (a sensitive climate variable) plays a crucial yet highly dynamic and variable role in how it influences the whole marine ecosystem, from phytoplankton to top predators. For mesopredators such as seals, sea ice both supports a rich (under-ice) food resource, access to which depends on local to regional coverage and conditions. Here, we investigate sex-specific relationships between the foraging strategies of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) in winter and spatio-temporal variability in sea ice concentration (SIC) and coverage in East Antarctica. We satellite-tracked 46 individuals undertaking post-moult trips in winter from Kerguelen Islands to the peri-Antarctic shelf between 2004 and 2014. These data indicate distinct general patterns of sea ice usage: while females tended to follow the sea ice edge as it extended northward, the males remained on the continental shelf despite increasing sea ice. Seal hunting time, a proxy of foraging activity inferred from the diving behaviour, was longer for females in late autumn in the outer part of the pack ice, ∼150-370 km south of the ice edge. Within persistent regions of compact sea ice, females had a longer foraging activity (i) in the highest sea ice concentration at their position, but (ii) their foraging activity was longer when there were more patches of low concentration sea ice around their position (either in time or in space; 30 days & 50 km). The high spatio-temporal variability of sea ice around female positions is probably a key factor allowing them to exploit these concentrated patches. Despite lack of information on prey availability, females may exploit mesopelagic finfishes and squids that concentrate near the ice-water interface or within the water column (from

Eddy Covariance Measurements of the Sea-Spray Aerosol Flu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, I. M.; Norris, S. J.; Yelland, M. J.; Pascal, R. W.; Prytherch, J.

2015-12-01

Historically, almost all estimates of the sea-spray aerosol source flux have been inferred through various indirect methods. Direct estimates via eddy covariance have been attempted by only a handful of studies, most of which measured only the total number flux, or achieved rather coarse size segregation. Applying eddy covariance to the measurement of sea-spray fluxes is challenging: most instrumentation must be located in a laboratory space requiring long sample lines to an inlet collocated with a sonic anemometer; however, larger particles are easily lost to the walls of the sample line. Marine particle concentrations are generally low, requiring a high sample volume to achieve adequate statistics. The highly hygroscopic nature of sea salt means particles change size rapidly with fluctuations in relative humidity; this introduces an apparent bias in flux measurements if particles are sized at ambient humidity. The Compact Lightweight Aerosol Spectrometer Probe (CLASP) was developed specifically to make high rate measurements of aerosol size distributions for use in eddy covariance measurements, and the instrument and data processing and analysis techniques have been refined over the course of several projects. Here we will review some of the issues and limitations related to making eddy covariance measurements of the sea spray source flux over the open ocean, summarise some key results from the last decade, and present new results from a 3-year long ship-based measurement campaign as part of the WAGES project. Finally we will consider requirements for future progress.

Sea-level history and tectonic uplift during the last-interglacial period (LIG): Inferred from the Bab al-Mandab coral reef terraces, southern Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Mikhlafi, Ahmed Saif; Edwards, Lawrence R.; Cheng, Hai

2018-02-01

Results of U-series dating of late Pleistocene raised coral reef terraces from the Bab al-Mandab area, define two distinct groups: (1) well-preserved aragonitic fossil corals recorded from the Al-Hajaja terrace (Tr3) yield ages for last-interglacial period (LIG); and (2) calcitic fossil corals recovered from Perim Island terrace (Tr1) show varying degrees of U-series open system behavior and yield coral assemblage ages of LIG and older ages. Fossil corals from Tr1 are recrystallized corals, have anomalously high initial δ234U ranged from (152 ± 2‰ to 287 ± 7‰), corresponding to ages of ∼120 ka and ∼406 ka, respectively. Applying age reliability criteria on the current data suggest majority of the ages cannot be considered reliable and all are suspected for open system behavior associated with U loss/addition that significantly affects the 230Th/U ages. The diagenesis shown by these corals occurred probably due to extensive interaction of fossil corals with freshwater during the wet periods prevailed in southern Arabia coeval with the African monsoon, which led to U loss. Post-depositional U loss suggest (230Th/238U) increase, which shift the U-Th ages to unexpectedly higher levels as it is shown here. Measured elevation at the Al-Hajaja terrace (Tr3) is ∼4 ± 2 m above present sea level (apsl) consistent with eustatic sea level changes and indicates that the Bab al-Mandab area is stable at least since the LIG period. The Perim Island terrace (Tr1) is at elevation of 7 ± 2 m apsl; its reef yields diageneticaly-altered corals of multiple ages and cannot be used for sea level reconstructions.

Forward and backward inference in spatial cognition.

PubMed

Penny, Will D; Zeidman, Peter; Burgess, Neil

2013-01-01

This paper shows that the various computations underlying spatial cognition can be implemented using statistical inference in a single probabilistic model. Inference is implemented using a common set of 'lower-level' computations involving forward and backward inference over time. For example, to estimate where you are in a known environment, forward inference is used to optimally combine location estimates from path integration with those from sensory input. To decide which way to turn to reach a goal, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of reaching that goal under each option. To work out which environment you are in, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of sensory observations under the different hypotheses. For reaching sensory goals that require a chaining together of decisions, forward inference can be used to compute a state trajectory that will lead to that goal, and backward inference to refine the route and estimate control signals that produce the required trajectory. We propose that these computations are reflected in recent findings of pattern replay in the mammalian brain. Specifically, that theta sequences reflect decision making, theta flickering reflects model selection, and remote replay reflects route and motor planning. We also propose a mapping of the above computational processes onto lateral and medial entorhinal cortex and hippocampus.

Community variability and ecological functioning: 40 years of change in the North Sea benthos.

PubMed

Clare, D S; Robinson, L A; Frid, C L J

2015-06-01

Using established associations between species traits (life history, morphological and behavioural characteristics) and key ecological functions, we applied biological traits analysis (BTA) to investigate the consequences of 40 years of change in two North Sea benthic communities. Ecological functioning (trait composition) was found to be statistically indistinguishable across periods that differed significantly in taxonomic composition. A temporary alteration to functioning was, however, inferred at both sampling stations; coinciding with the North Sea regime shift of the 1980s. Trait composition recovered after 1 year at the station located inside the grounds of a trawl fishery, whereas the station located outside the main area of fishing activity underwent a six-year period of significantly altered, and temporally unstable, trait composition. A further alteration to functioning was inferred at the fished station, when the population of a newly established species rapidly increased in numbers. The results suggest that density compensation by characteristically similar (redundant) taxa acts to buffer changes to ecological functioning over time, but that functional stability is subject to aperiodic disruption due to substitutions of dissimilar taxa or uncompensated population fluctuations. The rate at which ecological functioning stabilises and recovers appears to be dependent on environmental context; e.g. disturbance regime. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Milly, P. C. D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, C.

2003-01-01

Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981–1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981–1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993–1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system. PMID:14576277

Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, M.C.

2003-01-01

Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981-1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981-1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993-1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system.

Age of overwash and rate of relative sea-level rise inferred from detrital heads and microatolls of medieval corals at Anegada, British Virgin Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jennifer, W.; Feuillet, N.; Robert, H.; Brian, A.; Ten Brink, U. S.; Deschamps, P.; Tuttle, M. P.; Wei, Y.; Fuentes, Z.

2012-12-01

Coral boulders deposited on Anegada, an island 120 km south of the Puerto Rico Trench, record overwash dated to AD 1200-1450 and relative sea-level changes that preceded it. Composed largely of Pleistocene limestone, Anegada is less than 8 m above sea level and is fringed on the north and east by a coral reef where Atlantic Ocean waves break. The lowest parts of the island were washed over from the north in AD 1650-1800, as judged from landforms and deposits reported previously (doi:10.1007/s11069-010-9622-6). The coral boulders indicate overwash of higher elevation and earlier age. The boulders were apparently torn from the adjacent reef by a tsunami of nearby origin, as inferred in companion abstracts on geology and modeling. We found the corals scattered in five areas inland from the north shore. Two of the areas show solitary coral heads 1500 m from the reef. The boulders are more numerous in the three other areas, where they are up to 500-700 m from the reef and up to 4 m above sea level. Some were transported over beach ridges or through breaches cut into them. Others are hundreds of meters inland from a modern storm berm. Most rest on the Pleistocene limestone. Many are overturned. Most are broken but few are whole. The largest measured diameter is 2 m and the greatest measured height is 1 m. Most of the boulders are of the brain coral Diploria strigosa, but smaller Porites asteroides and Montastrea annularis are also present. Some of the D. strigosa retain the rounded shape typical of living heads and are dimpled with holes perhaps left by feather-duster worms. The preservation of these features suggests that many of the boulders came ashore alive. We avoided dating a head that shows field evidence for death before transport; an erosional surface cuts across its youngest growth bands and is covered with the remains of encrusting marine organisms. Among the 18 coral boulders dated, 13 form a young group with ages in the range 890±25 to 1020±25 14C yr BP

Exploring coral microbiome assemblages in the South China Sea.

PubMed

Cai, Lin; Tian, Ren-Mao; Zhou, Guowei; Tong, Haoya; Wong, Yue Him; Zhang, Weipeng; Chui, Apple Pui Yi; Xie, James Y; Qiu, Jian-Wen; Ang, Put O; Liu, Sheng; Huang, Hui; Qian, Pei-Yuan

2018-02-05

Coral reefs are significant ecosystems. The ecological success of coral reefs relies on not only coral-algal symbiosis but also coral-microbial partnership. However, microbiome assemblages in the South China Sea corals remain largely unexplored. Here, we compared the microbiome assemblages of reef-building corals Galaxea (G. fascicularis) and Montipora (M. venosa, M. peltiformis, M. monasteriata) collected from five different locations in the South China Sea using massively-parallel sequencing of 16S rRNA gene and multivariate analysis. The results indicated that microbiome assemblages for each coral species were unique regardless of location and were different from the corresponding seawater. Host type appeared to drive the coral microbiome assemblages rather than location and seawater. Network analysis was employed to explore coral microbiome co-occurrence patterns, which revealed 61 and 80 co-occurring microbial species assembling the Galaxea and Montipora microbiomes, respectively. Most of these co-occurring microbial species were commonly found in corals and were inferred to play potential roles in host nutrient metabolism; carbon, nitrogen, sulfur cycles; host detoxification; and climate change. These findings suggest that the co-occurring microbial species explored might be essential to maintain the critical coral-microbial partnership. The present study provides new insights into coral microbiome assemblages in the South China Sea.

Feature Inference Learning and Eyetracking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rehder, Bob; Colner, Robert M.; Hoffman, Aaron B.

2009-01-01

Besides traditional supervised classification learning, people can learn categories by inferring the missing features of category members. It has been proposed that feature inference learning promotes learning a category's internal structure (e.g., its typical features and interfeature correlations) whereas classification promotes the learning of…

Istanbul, Turkey

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-07-21

This June 16, 2000 image of Istanbul, Turkey show a full 60 by 60 km ASTER scene in the visible and infrared channels. Vegetation appears red, and urban areas blue-green. Bustling Istanbul, with its magnificent historical heritage, has spanned the divide between Europe and Asia for more than 2,500 years. Originally called Byzantium, the city was founded in the 7th century BC on the Golden Horn, an arm of the narrow Bosporus (also spelled Bosphorus) Strait, which connects the Sea of Marmara to the south, with the Black Sea to the north. Constantine I made it his capital of the Eastern Roman Empire in AD 330. As Constantinople, the strategically located city arose as the preeminent cultural, religious, and political center of the Western world. It reached the height of its wealth and glory in the early 5th century. After centuries of decline, the city entered another period of tremendous growth and prosperity when, as Istanbul, it became the capital of the Turkish Ottoman Empire in 1457. Although Turkey moved its capital to Ankara in 1923, Istanbul remains the nation's largest city with a population of over 8 million, its commercial center, and a major port. Two bridges spanning the Bosporus, and ships in the busy channel can be seen on the enlargement. On the image, the water areas have been replaced with a thermal image: colder waters are displayed in dark blue, warmer areas in light blue. Note the dark lines showing boat wakes, and the cold water entering the Sea of Marmara from deeper waters of the Bosporus. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA02665

Sea Level Budget along the East Coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pease, A. M.; Davis, J. L.; Vinogradova, N. T.

2016-12-01

We analyzed tide gauge data, taken from 1955 to 2015, from 29 locations along the east coast of North America. A well-documented period of sea-level acceleration began around 1990. The sea level rate (referenced to epoch 1985.0) and acceleration (post-1990) are spatially and temporally variable, due to various physical processes, each of which is also spatially and temporally variable. To determine the sea-level budgets for rate and acceleration, we considered a number of major contributors to sea level change: ocean density and dynamics, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), the inverted barometer effect, and mass change associated with the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The geographic variability in the budgets for sea-level rate is dominated by GIA. At some sites, GIA is the largest contributor to the rate. The geographic variability in the budgets for sea-level acceleration is dominated by ocean dynamics and density and GIS mass loss. The figure below shows budgets for sea-level rate (left) and acceleration (right) for Key West, Fla., (top) and The Battery in New York City (bottom). The blue represents values (with error bar shown) estimated from tide gauge observations, and the yellow represents the total values estimated from the individual model contributions (each in red, green, cyan, pink, and black). The estimated totals for rate and acceleration are good matches to the tide-gauge inferences. To achieve a reasonable fit, a scaling factor (admittance) for the combined contribution of ocean dynamics and density was estimated; this admittance may reflect the low spatial sampling of the GECCO2 model we used, or other problems in modeling coastal sea-level. The significant contributions of mass loss to the acceleration enable us to predict that, if such mass-loss continues or increases, the character of sea-level change on the North American east coast will change in the next 50-100 years. In particular, whereas GIA presently

Inferring Microbial Fitness Landscapes

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-25

infer from data the determinants of microbial evolution with sufficient resolution that we can quantify 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...Distribution Unlimited UU UU UU UU 25-02-2016 1-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2015 Final Report: Inferring Microbial Fitness Landscapes The views, opinions and/or findings...Triangle Park, NC 27709-2211 evolution, fitness landscapes, epistasis, microbial populations REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT

Learning to Observe "and" Infer

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanuscin, Deborah L.; Park Rogers, Meredith A.

2008-01-01

Researchers describe the need for students to have multiple opportunities and social interaction to learn about the differences between observation and inference and their role in developing scientific explanations (Harlen 2001; Simpson 2000). Helping children develop their skills of observation and inference in science while emphasizing the…

Causal Inference in Retrospective Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holland, Paul W.; Rubin, Donald B.

1988-01-01

The problem of drawing causal inferences from retrospective case-controlled studies is considered. A model for causal inference in prospective studies is applied to retrospective studies. Limitations of case-controlled studies are formulated concerning relevant parameters that can be estimated in such studies. A coffee-drinking/myocardial…

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

2012-08-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. Conservation Biology ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original

Category Representation for Classification and Feature Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johansen, Mark K.; Kruschke, John K.

2005-01-01

This research's purpose was to contrast the representations resulting from learning of the same categories by either classifying instances or inferring instance features. Prior inference learning research, particularly T. Yamauchi and A. B. Markman (1998), has suggested that feature inference learning fosters prototype representation, whereas…

Forward and Backward Inference in Spatial Cognition

PubMed Central

Penny, Will D.; Zeidman, Peter; Burgess, Neil

2013-01-01

This paper shows that the various computations underlying spatial cognition can be implemented using statistical inference in a single probabilistic model. Inference is implemented using a common set of ‘lower-level’ computations involving forward and backward inference over time. For example, to estimate where you are in a known environment, forward inference is used to optimally combine location estimates from path integration with those from sensory input. To decide which way to turn to reach a goal, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of reaching that goal under each option. To work out which environment you are in, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of sensory observations under the different hypotheses. For reaching sensory goals that require a chaining together of decisions, forward inference can be used to compute a state trajectory that will lead to that goal, and backward inference to refine the route and estimate control signals that produce the required trajectory. We propose that these computations are reflected in recent findings of pattern replay in the mammalian brain. Specifically, that theta sequences reflect decision making, theta flickering reflects model selection, and remote replay reflects route and motor planning. We also propose a mapping of the above computational processes onto lateral and medial entorhinal cortex and hippocampus. PMID:24348230

Variability of the Labrador Sea Surface Eddy Kinetic Energy Observed by Altimeter From 1993 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weiwei; Yan, Xiao-Hai

2018-01-01

A merged along track altimeter data set is used to study the variability of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Labrador Sea from 1993 to 2012. The EKE near the west Greenland current (WGC) has strong interannual variability without long-term trend from 1993 to 2012. The propagation direction of the Irminger Rings (IRs) originating from the WGC can be inferred from the EKE derived from altimeter, and the southward propagation of the IRs varies interannually. The central Labrador Sea EKE increases significantly from 1993 to 2012. The central Labrador Sea temperature difference between the end and the beginning of the winter convections is defined as restratification index to measure the restratification strengths. The relation between the central Labrador Sea EKE and the restratification index shows that the enhanced eddy activity originating from the west of the central Labrador Sea may cool the central Labrador Sea significantly. The interannual variability of the WGC EKE is likely to be driven by the large scale Subpolar Gyre (SPG) circulation variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO also affects the central Labrador Sea EKE through its fingerprint in the local wind stress and surface heat flux. The NAO affects the WGC EKE by changing the SPG circulation strength, which will subsequently affect the WGC EKE through unknown physical processes.

Fair Inference on Outcomes

PubMed Central

Nabi, Razieh; Shpitser, Ilya

2017-01-01

In this paper, we consider the problem of fair statistical inference involving outcome variables. Examples include classification and regression problems, and estimating treatment effects in randomized trials or observational data. The issue of fairness arises in such problems where some covariates or treatments are “sensitive,” in the sense of having potential of creating discrimination. In this paper, we argue that the presence of discrimination can be formalized in a sensible way as the presence of an effect of a sensitive covariate on the outcome along certain causal pathways, a view which generalizes (Pearl 2009). A fair outcome model can then be learned by solving a constrained optimization problem. We discuss a number of complications that arise in classical statistical inference due to this view and provide workarounds based on recent work in causal and semi-parametric inference.

Terrestrial biomarkers in the sediment of the East Sea (Japan Sea) since the MIS 11: implications for paleoproductivity and paleoclimatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyun, S.; Suh, Y. J.; Woo, K. S.; Ikehara, M.

2014-12-01

Terrestrial biomarkers such as n-alkanes and cholesterol were analyzed to infer the variations of paleoproductivity and the corresponding paleoclimatologic information from the sediment of the Korean Plateau, East Sea (Japan Sea) since the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (ca. 400 ka). Previous studies of SST variation have shown that glacial-interglacial scale changes were quite variable with the maximum range of 26oC in MIS 7, and the minimum range of 12oC during MIS 2 and 6. The distribution of terrestrial n-alkanes signatures is characterized by the occurrence of high odd number frequency with a minor contribution of specific compound (nC27 only). Average Chain Length (ACL) and Carbon Preferences Index (CPI), both of which are derived from n-alkane combination, show similar shifting between glacial and interglacial periods. This suggests that paleovegetation communities had been changed in responding to paleoclimatological variations, and the input amount of terrestrial compound was strongly linked with paleoclimatologic changes. In particular, depleted values of δ13Corg during MIS 2, 8 and 10 were coincident with lower nitrogen isotope values indicating local paleoceanographic effects such as paleoproductivity changes. Decoupling between δ13Corg and δ15Norg during MIS 1, 3, 5, 7 and coupling of the two during MIS 8 and 11 can be observed, which appear to be interpreted as local productivity changes. In particular, high abundance of cholesterol and C21 n-alkanes, which were derived from diatom, increased during interglacial periods. Therefore, alkenones, SST and n-alkanes signatures coincide with δ13Corg and δ15Norg variations during glacial-interglacial cycles and further strongly associated with cholesterol abundance suggesting that the paleoenvironmental conditions in East Sea during glacial-interglacial periods were sensitive not only to global climate changes but also to local paleceanographic variations. Surface water circulation around the Korea

Sea ice, extremophiles and life on extra-terrestrial ocean worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Andrew; McMinn, Andrew

2018-01-01

The primary aim of this review is to highlight that sea-ice microbes would be capable of occupying ice-associated biological niches on Europa and Enceladus. These moons are compelling targets for astrobiological exploration because of the inferred presence of subsurface oceans that have persisted over geological timescales. Although potentially hostile to life in general, Europa and Enceladus may still harbour biologically permissive domains associated with the ice, ocean and seafloor environments. However, validating sources of free energy is challenging, as is qualifying possible metabolic processes or ecosystem dynamics. Here, the capacity for biological adaptation exhibited by microorganisms that inhabit sea ice is reviewed. These ecosystems are among the most relevant Earth-based analogues for considering life on ocean worlds because microorganisms must adapt to multiple physicochemical extremes. In future, these organisms will likely play a significant role in defining the constraints on habitability beyond Earth and developing a mechanistic framework that contrasts the limits of Earth's biosphere with extra-terrestrial environments of interest.

Free and Forced Rossby Waves in the Western South China Sea Inferred from Jason-1 Satellite Altimetry Data

PubMed Central

Wu, Xiangyu; Xie, Qiang; He, Zhigang; Wang, Dongxiao

2008-01-01

Data from a subsurface mooring deployed in the western South China Sea shows clear intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) at the period of 40∼70 days. Analysis of remotely-sensed sea surface height (SSH) anomalies in the same area indicates that these ISO signals propagate both eastward and westward. Time-longitude diagrams of ISO signals in SSH anomalies and wind-stress curl indicate that the eastward propagating SSH anomalies is forced by wind-stress curl. This is also confirmed by lag correlation between SSH anomalies and the wind-stress-curl index (wind stress curl averaged over 109.5°E -115°E and 12°N -13.5°N). Lag correlation of SSH anomaly suggests that the westward propagating signals are free Rossby waves. PMID:27879897

Feeding in deep-sea demosponges: Influence of abiotic and biotic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, Leah M.; Hamel, Jean-François; Mercier, Annie

2017-09-01

In shallow benthic communities, sponges are widely recognized for their ability to contribute to food webs by cycling nutrients and mediating carbon fluxes through filter feeding. In comparison, little is known about filter feeding in deep-sea species and how it may be modulated by environmental conditions. Here, a rare opportunity to maintain live healthy deep-sea sponges for an extended period led to a preliminary experimental study of their feeding metrics. This work focused on demosponges collected from the continental slope of eastern Canada at 1000 m depth. Filtration rates (as clearance of phytoplankton cells) at holding temperature (6 °C) were positively correlated with food particle concentration, ranging on average from 18.8 to 160.6 cells ml-1 h-1 at nominal concentrations of 10,000-40,000 cells ml-1. Cell clearance was not significantly affected by decreasing seawater temperature, from 6 °C to 3 °C or 0 °C, although two of the sponges showed decreased filtration rates. Low pH ( 7.5) and the presence of a predatory sea star markedly depressed or inhibited feeding activity in all sponges tested. While performed under laboratory conditions on a limited number of specimens, this work highlights the possible sensitivity of deep-sea demosponges to various types and levels of biotic and abiotic factors, inferring a consequent vulnerability to natural and anthropogenic disturbances.

Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foster, E. Michael

2010-01-01

Causal inference is of central importance to developmental psychology. Many key questions in the field revolve around improving the lives of children and their families. These include identifying risk factors that if manipulated in some way would foster child development. Such a task inherently involves causal inference: One wants to know whether…

Bayesian Nonparametric Inference – Why and How

PubMed Central

Müller, Peter; Mitra, Riten

2013-01-01

We review inference under models with nonparametric Bayesian (BNP) priors. The discussion follows a set of examples for some common inference problems. The examples are chosen to highlight problems that are challenging for standard parametric inference. We discuss inference for density estimation, clustering, regression and for mixed effects models with random effects distributions. While we focus on arguing for the need for the flexibility of BNP models, we also review some of the more commonly used BNP models, thus hopefully answering a bit of both questions, why and how to use BNP. PMID:24368932

Inference of nitrogen cycling in three watersheds of northern Florida, USA, by multivariate statistical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Ji-Meng; Winchester, John W.

1994-03-01

Nitrogen in fresh waters of three rivers in northern Florida - the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River system, Ochlockonee (Och), and Sopchoppy (Sop) - is inferred to be derived mostly from atmospheric deposition. Because the N:P mole ratios in the rivers are nearly three times higher than the Redfield ratio for aquatic photosynthesis, N is saturated in the ecosystems, not a limiting nutrient, although it may be chemically transformed. Absolute principal component analysis (APCA), a receptor model, was applied to many years of monitoring data for Apalachicola River water and rainfall over its basin in order to better understand aquatic chemistry of nitrogen in the watershed. The APCA model describes the river water as mainly a mixture of components with compositions resembling fresh rain, aged rain, and groundwater. In the fresh rain component, the ratio of atmospheric nitrate to sulfate is close to that in rainwater, as if some samples had been collected following very recent rainfall. The aged rain component of the river water is distinguished by a low NO 3-/SO 42- ratio, signifying an atmospheric source but with most of its nitrate having been lost or transformed. The groundwater component, inferred from its concentration to contribute on average about one fourth of the river water, contains abundant Ca 2+ but no detectable nitrogen. Results similar to ACF were obtained for Sop and Och, though Och exhibits some association of NO 3- with the Ca 2+-rich component. Similar APCA of wet precipitation resolves mainly components that represent acid rain, with NO 3-, SO 42- and NH 4+ and sea salt, with Na +, Cl - and Mg 2+. Inland, the acid rain component is relatively more prominent and Cl - is depleted, while at atmospheric monitoring sites nearer the coastal region sea salt tends to be more prominent.

Quantum-Like Representation of Non-Bayesian Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.

2013-01-01

This research is related to the problem of "irrational decision making or inference" that have been discussed in cognitive psychology. There are some experimental studies, and these statistical data cannot be described by classical probability theory. The process of decision making generating these data cannot be reduced to the classical Bayesian inference. For this problem, a number of quantum-like coginitive models of decision making was proposed. Our previous work represented in a natural way the classical Bayesian inference in the frame work of quantum mechanics. By using this representation, in this paper, we try to discuss the non-Bayesian (irrational) inference that is biased by effects like the quantum interference. Further, we describe "psychological factor" disturbing "rationality" as an "environment" correlating with the "main system" of usual Bayesian inference.

The mechanisms of temporal inference

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox, B. R.; Green, S. R.

1987-01-01

The properties of a temporal language are determined by its constituent elements: the temporal objects which it can represent, the attributes of those objects, the relationships between them, the axioms which define the default relationships, and the rules which define the statements that can be formulated. The methods of inference which can be applied to a temporal language are derived in part from a small number of axioms which define the meaning of equality and order and how those relationships can be propagated. More complex inferences involve detailed analysis of the stated relationships. Perhaps the most challenging area of temporal inference is reasoning over disjunctive temporal constraints. Simple forms of disjunction do not sufficiently increase the expressive power of a language while unrestricted use of disjunction makes the analysis NP-hard. In many cases a set of disjunctive constraints can be converted to disjunctive normal form and familiar methods of inference can be applied to the conjunctive sub-expressions. This process itself is NP-hard but it is made more tractable by careful expansion of a tree-structured search space.

Origin of whales in epicontinental remnant seas: new evidence from the early eocene of pakistan.

PubMed

Gingerich, P D; Wells, N A; Russell, D E; Shah, S M

1983-04-22

Pakicetus inachus from the early Eocene of Pakistan is the oldest and most primitive cetacean known. The dentition of Pakicetus resembles that of carnivorous mesonychid land mammals as well as middle Eocene cetaceans. The otic region of the cranium lacks characteristic specializations of whales necessary for efficient directional hearing under water. Pakicetus occurs with a land-mammal fauna in fluvial sediments bordering epicontinental Eocene remnants of the eastern Tethys seaway. Discovery of Pakicetus strengthens earlier inferences that whales originated from terrestrial carnivorous mammals and suggests that whales made a gradual transition from land to sea in the early Eocene, spending progressively more time feeding on planktivorous fishes in shallow, highly productive seas and embayments associated with tectonic closure of eastern Tethys.

Monitoring Arctic Sea ice using ERTS imagery. [Bering Sea, Beaufort Sea, Canadian Archipelago, and Greenland Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, J. C.; Bowley, C. J.

1974-01-01

Because of the effect of sea ice on the heat balance of the Arctic and because of the expanding economic interest in arctic oil and other minerals, extensive monitoring and further study of sea ice is required. The application of ERTS data for mapping ice is evaluated for several arctic areas, including the Bering Sea, the eastern Beaufort Sea, parts of the Canadian Archipelago, and the Greenland Sea. Interpretive techniques are discussed, and the scales and types of ice features that can be detected are described. For the Bering Sea, a sample of ERTS imagery is compared with visual ice reports and aerial photography from the NASA CV-990 aircraft.

Absorption and Transport of Sea Cucumber Saponins from Apostichopus japonicus.

PubMed

Li, Shuai; Wang, Yuanhong; Jiang, Tingfu; Wang, Han; Yang, Shuang; Lv, Zhihua

2016-06-17

The present study is focused on the intestinal absorption of sea cucumber saponins. We determined the pharmacokinetic characteristics and bioavailability of Echinoside A and Holotoxin A₁; the findings indicated that the bioavailability of Holotoxin A₁ was lower than Echinoside A. We inferred that the differences in chemical structure between compounds was a factor that explained their different characteristics of transport across the intestine. In order to confirm the absorption characteristics of Echinoside A and Holotoxin A₁, we examined their transport across Caco-2 cell monolayer and effective permeability by single-pass intestinal perfusion. The results of Caco-2 cell model indicate that Echinoside A is transported by passive diffusion, and not influenced by the exocytosis of P-glycoprotein (P-gp, expressed in the apical side of Caco-2 monolayers as the classic inhibitor). The intestinal perfusion also demonstrated well the absorption of Echinoside A and poor absorption of Holotoxin A₁, which matched up with the result of the Caco-2 cell model. The results demonstrated our conjecture and provides fundamental information on the relationship between the chemical structure of these sea cucumber saponins and their absorption characteristics, and we believe that our findings build a foundation for the further metabolism study of sea cucumber saponins and contribute to the further clinical research of saponins.

Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques.

PubMed

Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Mitrovica, Jerry X

2013-02-26

A rapidly melting ice sheet produces a distinctive geometry, or fingerprint, of sea level (SL) change. Thus, a network of SL observations may, in principle, be used to infer sources of meltwater flux. We outline a formalism, based on a modified Kalman smoother, for using tide gauge observations to estimate the individual sources of global SL change. We also report on a series of detection experiments based on synthetic SL data that explore the feasibility of extracting source information from SL records. The Kalman smoother technique iteratively calculates the maximum-likelihood estimate of Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) melt at each time step, and it accommodates data gaps while also permitting the estimation of nonlinear trends. Our synthetic tests indicate that when all tide gauge records are used in the analysis, it should be possible to estimate GIS and WAIS melt rates greater than ∼0.3 and ∼0.4 mm of equivalent eustatic sea level rise per year, respectively. We have also implemented a multimodel Kalman filter that allows us to account rigorously for additional contributions to SL changes and their associated uncertainty. The multimodel filter uses 72 glacial isostatic adjustment models and 3 ocean dynamic models to estimate the most likely models for these processes given the synthetic observations. We conclude that our modified Kalman smoother procedure provides a powerful method for inferring melt rates in a warming world.

Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques

PubMed Central

Hay, Carling C.; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.

2013-01-01

A rapidly melting ice sheet produces a distinctive geometry, or fingerprint, of sea level (SL) change. Thus, a network of SL observations may, in principle, be used to infer sources of meltwater flux. We outline a formalism, based on a modified Kalman smoother, for using tide gauge observations to estimate the individual sources of global SL change. We also report on a series of detection experiments based on synthetic SL data that explore the feasibility of extracting source information from SL records. The Kalman smoother technique iteratively calculates the maximum-likelihood estimate of Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) melt at each time step, and it accommodates data gaps while also permitting the estimation of nonlinear trends. Our synthetic tests indicate that when all tide gauge records are used in the analysis, it should be possible to estimate GIS and WAIS melt rates greater than ∼0.3 and ∼0.4 mm of equivalent eustatic sea level rise per year, respectively. We have also implemented a multimodel Kalman filter that allows us to account rigorously for additional contributions to SL changes and their associated uncertainty. The multimodel filter uses 72 glacial isostatic adjustment models and 3 ocean dynamic models to estimate the most likely models for these processes given the synthetic observations. We conclude that our modified Kalman smoother procedure provides a powerful method for inferring melt rates in a warming world. PMID:22543163

Habitat use and migratory behaviour of pikeperch Sander lucioperca in Lithuanian and Latvian waters as inferred from otolith Sr:Ca ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ložys, Linas; Shiao, Jen-Chieh; Iizuka, Yoshiyuki; Minde, Atis; Pūtys, Žilvinas; Jakubavičiūtė, Eglė; Dainys, Justas; Gorfine, Harry; Tzeng, Wann-Nian

2017-11-01

Determination of the geographic boundaries that define a stock is a key challenge in fisheries management. Acquiring an understanding of spatial distribution and migration patterns of pikeperch Sander lucioperca populations in the south-eastern Baltic Sea region would help to delineate the stocks and contribute towards sustainable exploitation of the population. In this study, habitat use and migratory behaviour of S. lucioperca were inferred from otolith Sr:Ca ratios obtained via an Electron Probe Micro-Analyzer. S. lucioperca collected from the inland Kaunas City water reservoir, where downstream migration is precluded by a hydro-power plant, consistently showed a freshwater signature in their otoliths throughout their life history. In contrast, those collected from the Baltic Sea and Curonian Lagoon in Lithuania, and the lower reaches of the Daugava River in Latvia had ratios indicative of movement between fresh and brackish water habitats. Although S. lucioperca can inhabit brackish water bodies, they predominantly reside and reproduce in freshwater systems. It is thought that periodic post-spawning migration to the sea during spring is related to better foraging conditions and perhaps as a strategy for shedding ectoparasites. Currently, catch quotas apply only to those S. lucioperca taken from the Curonian Lagoon and not the Baltic Sea. Frequent migration between freshwater habitats and the Baltic Sea suggest that S. lucioperca stocks from a given river/estuary system should be considered as a single management unit despite individual differences in migratory behaviour. The extent to which migration into the Baltic Sea could potentially compromise the effectiveness of catch quotas was the main issue which initiated this study.

Buried paleo-sedimentary basins in the north-eastern Black Sea-Azov Sea area and tectonic implications (DOBRE-2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starostenko, Vitaly; Stephenson, Randell; Janik, Tomasz; Tolkunov, Anatoly

2014-05-01

A number of independent but inter-related projects carried out under the auspices of various national and international programmes in Ukraine including DARIUS were aimed at imaging the upper lithosphere, crustal and sedimentary basin architecture in the north-eastern Black Sea, southern Crimea and Kerch peninsulas and the Azov Sea. This region marks the transition from relatively undisturbed Precambrian European cratonic crust and lithosphere north of the Azov Sea to areas of significant Phanerozoic tectonics and basin development, in both extensional as well as compressional environments, to the south, including the eastern Black Sea rift, which is the main sedimentary basin of the study area. The wide-angle reflection and refraction (WARR) profile DOBRE-2, a Ukrainian national project with international participation (see below), overlapping some 115 km of the southern end of the DOBREfraction'99 profile (that crosses the intracratonic Donbas Foldbelt) in the north and running to the eastern Black Sea basin in the south, utilised on- and offshore recording and energy sources. It maps crustal velocity structure across the craton margin and documents, among other things, that the Moho deepens from 40 km to ~47 km to the southwest below the Azov Sea and Crimean-Caucasus deformed zone. A regional CDP seismic profile coincident with DOBRE-2, crossing the Azov Sea, Kerch Peninsula and the north-eastern Black Sea southwest to the Ukraine-Turkey border, acquired by Ukrgeofisika (the Ukrainian national geophysical company) reveals in its inferred structural relationships the ages of Cretaceous and younger extensional and subsequent basin inversion tectonic events as well as the 2D geometry of basement displacement associated with post mid-Eocene inversion. A direct comparison of the results of the WARR velocity model and the near-vertical reflection structural image has been made by converting the former into the time domain. The results dramatically demonstrate that

Bayesian inference of ice thickness from remote-sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werder, Mauro A.; Huss, Matthias

2017-04-01

Knowledge about ice thickness and volume is indispensable for studying ice dynamics, future sea-level rise due to glacier melt or their contribution to regional hydrology. Accurate measurements of glacier thickness require on-site work, usually employing radar techniques. However, these field measurements are time consuming, expensive and sometime downright impossible. Conversely, measurements of the ice surface, namely elevation and flow velocity, are becoming available world-wide through remote sensing. The model of Farinotti et al. (2009) calculates ice thicknesses based on a mass conservation approach paired with shallow ice physics using estimates of the surface mass balance. The presented work applies a Bayesian inference approach to estimate the parameters of a modified version of this forward model by fitting it to both measurements of surface flow speed and of ice thickness. The inverse model outputs ice thickness as well the distribution of the error. We fit the model to ten test glaciers and ice caps and quantify the improvements of thickness estimates through the usage of surface ice flow measurements.

Invertebrate population genetics across Earth's largest habitat: The deep-sea floor.

PubMed

Taylor, M L; Roterman, C N

2017-10-01

Despite the deep sea being the largest habitat on Earth, there are just 77 population genetic studies of invertebrates (115 species) inhabiting non-chemosynthetic ecosystems on the deep-sea floor (below 200 m depth). We review and synthesize the results of these papers. Studies reveal levels of genetic diversity comparable to shallow-water species. Generally, populations at similar depths were well connected over 100s-1,000s km, but studies that sampled across depth ranges reveal population structure at much smaller scales (100s-1,000s m) consistent with isolation by adaptation across environmental gradients, or the existence of physical barriers to connectivity with depth. Few studies were ocean-wide (under 4%), and 48% were Atlantic-focused. There is strong emphasis on megafauna and commercial species with research into meiofauna, "ecosystem engineers" and other ecologically important species lacking. Only nine papers account for ~50% of the planet's surface (depths below 3,500 m). Just two species were studied below 5,000 m, a quarter of Earth's seafloor. Most studies used single-locus mitochondrial genes revealing a common pattern of non-neutrality, consistent with demographic instability or selective sweeps; similar to deep-sea hydrothermal vent fauna. The absence of a clear difference between vent and non-vent could signify that demographic instability is common in the deep sea, or that selective sweeps render single-locus mitochondrial studies demographically uninformative. The number of population genetics studies to date is miniscule in relation to the size of the deep sea. The paucity of studies constrains meta-analyses where broad inferences about deep-sea ecology could be made. © 2017 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Inversion of Solid Earth's Varying Shape 2: Using Self-Consistency to Infer Static Ocean Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blewitt, G.; Clarke, P. J.

2002-12-01

We have developed a spectral approach to invert for the redistribution of mass on the Earth's surface given precise global geodetic measurements of the solid Earth's geometrical shape. We used the elastic load Love number formalism to characterize the redistributed mass as a spherical harmonic expansion, truncated at some degree and order n. [Clarke and Blewitt, this meeting]. Here we incorporate the additional physical constraint that the sea surface in hydrostatic equilibrium corresponds to an equipotential surface, to infer the non-steric component of static ocean topography. Our model rigorously accounts for self-gravitation of the ocean, continental surface mass, and the deformed solid Earth, such that the sea surface adopts a new equipotential surface consistent with ocean-land mass exchange, deformation of the geoid, deformation of the sea floor, and the geographical configuration of the oceans and continents. We develop a self-consistent spectral inversion method to solve for the distribution of continental surface mass that would generate geographic variations in relative mean sea level such that the total (ocean plus continental) mass distribution agrees with the original geodetic estimates to degree and order n. We apply this theory to study the contribution of seasonal inter-hemispheric (degree-1) mass transfer to seasonal variation in static ocean topography, using a published empirical seasonal model for degree-1 surface loading derived using GPS coordinate time series from the global IGS network [Blewitt et al., Science 294, 2,342-2,345, 2001]. The resulting predictions of seasonal variations of relative sea level strongly depend on location, with peak variations ranging from 3 mm to 19 mm. The largest peak variations are predicted in mid-August around Antarctica and the southern hemisphere in general; the lowest variations are predicted in the northern hemisphere. Corresponding maximum continental loading occurs in Canada and Siberia at the water

Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.

2010-01-01

This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.

A formal model of interpersonal inference

PubMed Central

Moutoussis, Michael; Trujillo-Barreto, Nelson J.; El-Deredy, Wael; Dolan, Raymond J.; Friston, Karl J.

2014-01-01

Introduction: We propose that active Bayesian inference—a general framework for decision-making—can equally be applied to interpersonal exchanges. Social cognition, however, entails special challenges. We address these challenges through a novel formulation of a formal model and demonstrate its psychological significance. Method: We review relevant literature, especially with regards to interpersonal representations, formulate a mathematical model and present a simulation study. The model accommodates normative models from utility theory and places them within the broader setting of Bayesian inference. Crucially, we endow people's prior beliefs, into which utilities are absorbed, with preferences of self and others. The simulation illustrates the model's dynamics and furnishes elementary predictions of the theory. Results: (1) Because beliefs about self and others inform both the desirability and plausibility of outcomes, in this framework interpersonal representations become beliefs that have to be actively inferred. This inference, akin to “mentalizing” in the psychological literature, is based upon the outcomes of interpersonal exchanges. (2) We show how some well-known social-psychological phenomena (e.g., self-serving biases) can be explained in terms of active interpersonal inference. (3) Mentalizing naturally entails Bayesian updating of how people value social outcomes. Crucially this includes inference about one's own qualities and preferences. Conclusion: We inaugurate a Bayes optimal framework for modeling intersubject variability in mentalizing during interpersonal exchanges. Here, interpersonal representations are endowed with explicit functional and affective properties. We suggest the active inference framework lends itself to the study of psychiatric conditions where mentalizing is distorted. PMID:24723872

Transplant experiments uncover Baltic Sea basin-specific responses in bacterioplankton community composition and metabolic activities.

PubMed

Lindh, Markus V; Figueroa, Daniela; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Baltar, Federico; Lundin, Daniel; Andersson, Agneta; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone

2015-01-01

Anthropogenically induced changes in precipitation are projected to generate increased river runoff to semi-enclosed seas, increasing loads of terrestrial dissolved organic matter and decreasing salinity. To determine how bacterial community structure and functioning adjust to such changes, we designed microcosm transplant experiments with Baltic Proper (salinity 7.2) and Bothnian Sea (salinity 3.6) water. Baltic Proper bacteria generally reached higher abundances than Bothnian Sea bacteria in both Baltic Proper and Bothnian Sea water, indicating higher adaptability. Moreover, Baltic Proper bacteria growing in Bothnian Sea water consistently showed highest bacterial production and beta-glucosidase activity. These metabolic responses were accompanied by basin-specific changes in bacterial community structure. For example, Baltic Proper Pseudomonas and Limnobacter populations increased markedly in relative abundance in Bothnian Sea water, indicating a replacement effect. In contrast, Roseobacter and Rheinheimera populations were stable or increased in abundance when challenged by either of the waters, indicating an adjustment effect. Transplants to Bothnian Sea water triggered the initial emergence of particular Burkholderiaceae populations, and transplants to Baltic Proper water triggered Alteromonadaceae populations. Notably, in the subsequent re-transplant experiment, a priming effect resulted in further increases to dominance of these populations. Correlated changes in community composition and metabolic activity were observed only in the transplant experiment and only at relatively high phylogenetic resolution. This suggested an importance of successional progression for interpreting relationships between bacterial community composition and functioning. We infer that priming effects on bacterial community structure by natural episodic events or climate change induced forcing could translate into long-term changes in bacterial ecosystem process rates.

Transplant experiments uncover Baltic Sea basin-specific responses in bacterioplankton community composition and metabolic activities

PubMed Central

Lindh, Markus V.; Figueroa, Daniela; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Baltar, Federico; Lundin, Daniel; Andersson, Agneta; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone

2015-01-01

Anthropogenically induced changes in precipitation are projected to generate increased river runoff to semi-enclosed seas, increasing loads of terrestrial dissolved organic matter and decreasing salinity. To determine how bacterial community structure and functioning adjust to such changes, we designed microcosm transplant experiments with Baltic Proper (salinity 7.2) and Bothnian Sea (salinity 3.6) water. Baltic Proper bacteria generally reached higher abundances than Bothnian Sea bacteria in both Baltic Proper and Bothnian Sea water, indicating higher adaptability. Moreover, Baltic Proper bacteria growing in Bothnian Sea water consistently showed highest bacterial production and beta-glucosidase activity. These metabolic responses were accompanied by basin-specific changes in bacterial community structure. For example, Baltic Proper Pseudomonas and Limnobacter populations increased markedly in relative abundance in Bothnian Sea water, indicating a replacement effect. In contrast, Roseobacter and Rheinheimera populations were stable or increased in abundance when challenged by either of the waters, indicating an adjustment effect. Transplants to Bothnian Sea water triggered the initial emergence of particular Burkholderiaceae populations, and transplants to Baltic Proper water triggered Alteromonadaceae populations. Notably, in the subsequent re-transplant experiment, a priming effect resulted in further increases to dominance of these populations. Correlated changes in community composition and metabolic activity were observed only in the transplant experiment and only at relatively high phylogenetic resolution. This suggested an importance of successional progression for interpreting relationships between bacterial community composition and functioning. We infer that priming effects on bacterial community structure by natural episodic events or climate change induced forcing could translate into long-term changes in bacterial ecosystem process rates. PMID

Timing of sea ice retreat can alter phytoplankton community structure in the western Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujiwara, A.; Hirawake, T.; Suzuki, K.; Imai, I.; Saitoh, S.-I.

2014-04-01

This study assesses the response of phytoplankton assemblages to recent climate change, especially with regard to the shrinking of sea ice in the northern Chukchi Sea of the western Arctic Ocean. Distribution patterns of phytoplankton groups in the late summers of 2008-2010 were analysed based on HPLC pigment signatures and, the following four major algal groups were inferred via multiple regression and cluster analyses: prasinophytes, diatoms, haptophytes and dinoflagellates. A remarkable interannual difference in the distribution pattern of the groups was found in the northern basin area. Haptophytes dominated and dispersed widely in warm surface waters in 2008, whereas prasinophytes dominated in cold water in 2009 and 2010. A difference in the onset date of sea ice retreat was evident among years-the sea ice retreat in 2008 was 1-2 months earlier than in 2009 and 2010. The spatial distribution of early sea ice retreat matched the areas in which a shift in algal community composition was observed. Steel-Dwass's multiple comparison tests were used to assess the physical, chemical and biological parameters of the four clusters. We found a statistically significant difference in temperature between the haptophyte-dominated cluster and the other clusters, suggesting that the change in the phytoplankton communities was related to the earlier sea ice retreat in 2008 and the corollary increase in sea surface temperatures. Longer periods of open water during the summer, which are expected in the future, may affect food webs and biogeochemical cycles in the western Arctic due to shifts in phytoplankton community structure.

Timing of sea ice retreat can alter phytoplankton community structure in the western Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

name prefix surname suffix, given; Fujiwara, A.; Hirawake, T.; Suzuki, K.; Imai, I.; Saitoh, S.-I.

2013-09-01

This study assesses the response of phytoplankton assemblages to recent climate change, especially with regard to the shrinking of sea ice in the northern Chukchi Sea of the western Arctic Ocean. Distribution patterns of phytoplankton groups in the late summers of 2008-2010 were analyzed based on HPLC pigment signatures and, the following four major algal groups were inferred via multiple regression and cluster analyses: prasinophytes, diatoms, haptophytes and dinoflagellates. A remarkable interannual difference in the distribution pattern of the groups was found in the northern basin area. Haptophytes dominated and dispersed widely in warm surface waters in 2008, whereas prasinophytes dominated in cold water in 2009 and 2010. A difference in the onset date of sea ice retreat was evident among years - the sea ice retreat in 2008 was 1-2 months earlier than in 2009 and 2010. The spatial distribution of early sea ice retreat matched the areas in which a shift in algal community composition was observed. Steel-Dwass's multiple comparison tests were used to assess the physical, chemical and biological parameters of the four clusters. We found a statistically significant difference in temperature between the haptophyte-dominated cluster and the other clusters, suggesting that the change in the phytoplankton communities was related to the earlier sea ice retreat in 2008 and the corollary increase in sea surface temperatures. Longer periods of open water during the summer, which are expected in the future, may affect food webs and biogeochemical cycles in the western Arctic due to shifts in phytoplankton community structure.

"Magnitude-based inference": a statistical review.

PubMed

Welsh, Alan H; Knight, Emma J

2015-04-01

We consider "magnitude-based inference" and its interpretation by examining in detail its use in the problem of comparing two means. We extract from the spreadsheets, which are provided to users of the analysis (http://www.sportsci.org/), a precise description of how "magnitude-based inference" is implemented. We compare the implemented version of the method with general descriptions of it and interpret the method in familiar statistical terms. We show that "magnitude-based inference" is not a progressive improvement on modern statistics. The additional probabilities introduced are not directly related to the confidence interval but, rather, are interpretable either as P values for two different nonstandard tests (for different null hypotheses) or as approximate Bayesian calculations, which also lead to a type of test. We also discuss sample size calculations associated with "magnitude-based inference" and show that the substantial reduction in sample sizes claimed for the method (30% of the sample size obtained from standard frequentist calculations) is not justifiable so the sample size calculations should not be used. Rather than using "magnitude-based inference," a better solution is to be realistic about the limitations of the data and use either confidence intervals or a fully Bayesian analysis.

Inferring Phylogenetic Networks Using PhyloNet.

PubMed

Wen, Dingqiao; Yu, Yun; Zhu, Jiafan; Nakhleh, Luay

2018-07-01

PhyloNet was released in 2008 as a software package for representing and analyzing phylogenetic networks. At the time of its release, the main functionalities in PhyloNet consisted of measures for comparing network topologies and a single heuristic for reconciling gene trees with a species tree. Since then, PhyloNet has grown significantly. The software package now includes a wide array of methods for inferring phylogenetic networks from data sets of unlinked loci while accounting for both reticulation (e.g., hybridization) and incomplete lineage sorting. In particular, PhyloNet now allows for maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference of phylogenetic networks from gene tree estimates. Furthermore, Bayesian inference directly from sequence data (sequence alignments or biallelic markers) is implemented. Maximum parsimony is based on an extension of the "minimizing deep coalescences" criterion to phylogenetic networks, whereas maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference are based on the multispecies network coalescent. All methods allow for multiple individuals per species. As computing the likelihood of a phylogenetic network is computationally hard, PhyloNet allows for evaluation and inference of networks using a pseudolikelihood measure. PhyloNet summarizes the results of the various analyzes and generates phylogenetic networks in the extended Newick format that is readily viewable by existing visualization software.

Active inference and learning.

PubMed

Friston, Karl; FitzGerald, Thomas; Rigoli, Francesco; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; O Doherty, John; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2016-09-01

This paper offers an active inference account of choice behaviour and learning. It focuses on the distinction between goal-directed and habitual behaviour and how they contextualise each other. We show that habits emerge naturally (and autodidactically) from sequential policy optimisation when agents are equipped with state-action policies. In active inference, behaviour has explorative (epistemic) and exploitative (pragmatic) aspects that are sensitive to ambiguity and risk respectively, where epistemic (ambiguity-resolving) behaviour enables pragmatic (reward-seeking) behaviour and the subsequent emergence of habits. Although goal-directed and habitual policies are usually associated with model-based and model-free schemes, we find the more important distinction is between belief-free and belief-based schemes. The underlying (variational) belief updating provides a comprehensive (if metaphorical) process theory for several phenomena, including the transfer of dopamine responses, reversal learning, habit formation and devaluation. Finally, we show that active inference reduces to a classical (Bellman) scheme, in the absence of ambiguity. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Aral Sea basin: a sea dies, a sea also rises.

PubMed

Glantz, Michael H

2007-06-01

The thesis of this article is quite different from many other theses of papers, books, and articles on the Aral Sea. It is meant to purposely highlight the reality of the situation in Central Asia: the Aral Sea that was once a thriving body of water is no more. That sea is dead. What does exist in its place are the Aral seas: there are in essence three bodies of water, one of which is being purposefully restored and its level is rising (the Little Aral), and two others which are still marginally connected, although they continue to decline in level (the Big Aral West and the Big Aral East). In 1960 the level of the sea was about 53 m above sea level. By 2006 the level had dropped by 23 m to 30 m above sea level. This was not a scenario generated by a computer model. It was a process of environmental degradation played out in real life in a matter of a few decades, primarily as a result of human activities. Despite wishes and words to the contrary, it will take a heroic global effort to save what remains of the Big Aral. It would also take a significant degree of sacrifice by people and governments in the region to restore the Big Aral to an acceptable level, given that the annual rate of flow reaching the Amudarya River delta is less than a 10th of what it was several decades ago. Conferring World Heritage status to the Aral Sea(s) could spark restoration efforts for the Big Aral.

Active Inference, homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control.

PubMed

Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco; Friston, Karl

2015-11-01

We review a theory of homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control within the Active Inference framework. Our aim is to connect two research streams that are usually considered independently; namely, Active Inference and associative learning theories of animal behaviour. The former uses a probabilistic (Bayesian) formulation of perception and action, while the latter calls on multiple (Pavlovian, habitual, goal-directed) processes for homeostatic and behavioural control. We offer a synthesis these classical processes and cast them as successive hierarchical contextualisations of sensorimotor constructs, using the generative models that underpin Active Inference. This dissolves any apparent mechanistic distinction between the optimization processes that mediate classical control or learning. Furthermore, we generalize the scope of Active Inference by emphasizing interoceptive inference and homeostatic regulation. The ensuing homeostatic (or allostatic) perspective provides an intuitive explanation for how priors act as drives or goals to enslave action, and emphasises the embodied nature of inference. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Active Inference, homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control

PubMed Central

Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco; Friston, Karl

2015-01-01

We review a theory of homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control within the Active Inference framework. Our aim is to connect two research streams that are usually considered independently; namely, Active Inference and associative learning theories of animal behaviour. The former uses a probabilistic (Bayesian) formulation of perception and action, while the latter calls on multiple (Pavlovian, habitual, goal-directed) processes for homeostatic and behavioural control. We offer a synthesis these classical processes and cast them as successive hierarchical contextualisations of sensorimotor constructs, using the generative models that underpin Active Inference. This dissolves any apparent mechanistic distinction between the optimization processes that mediate classical control or learning. Furthermore, we generalize the scope of Active Inference by emphasizing interoceptive inference and homeostatic regulation. The ensuing homeostatic (or allostatic) perspective provides an intuitive explanation for how priors act as drives or goals to enslave action, and emphasises the embodied nature of inference. PMID:26365173

Generative Inferences Based on Learned Relations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Dawn; Lu, Hongjing; Holyoak, Keith J.

2017-01-01

A key property of relational representations is their "generativity": From partial descriptions of relations between entities, additional inferences can be drawn about other entities. A major theoretical challenge is to demonstrate how the capacity to make generative inferences could arise as a result of learning relations from…

Observational analysis of air-sea fluxes and sea water temperature offshore South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, X.; Huang, J.; Gao, Z.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

This paper investigates the air-sea fluxes (momentum flux, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux) from eddy covariance method based on data collected at an offshore observation tower in the South China Sea from January 2009 to December 2016 and sea water temperature (SWT) on six different levels based on data collected from November 2011 to June 2013. The depth of water at the tower over the sea averages about 15 m. This study presents the in-situ measurements of continuous air-sea fluxes and SWT at different depths. Seasonal and diurnal variations in air-sea fluxes and SWT on different depths are examined. Results show that air-sea fluxes and all SWT changed seasonally; sea-land breeze circulation appears all the year round. Unlike winters where SWT on different depths are fairly consistent, the difference between sea surface temperature (SST) and sea temperature at 10 m water depth fluctuates dramatically and the maximum value reaches 7 °C during summer.

Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice

PubMed Central

Pistone, Kristina; Eisenman, Ian; Ramanathan, V.

2014-01-01

The decline of Arctic sea ice has been documented in over 30 y of satellite passive microwave observations. The resulting darkening of the Arctic and its amplification of global warming was hypothesized almost 50 y ago but has yet to be verified with direct observations. This study uses satellite radiation budget measurements along with satellite microwave sea ice data to document the Arctic-wide decrease in planetary albedo and its amplifying effect on the warming. The analysis reveals a striking relationship between planetary albedo and sea ice cover, quantities inferred from two independent satellite instruments. We find that the Arctic planetary albedo has decreased from 0.52 to 0.48 between 1979 and 2011, corresponding to an additional 6.4 ± 0.9 W/m2 of solar energy input into the Arctic Ocean region since 1979. Averaged over the globe, this albedo decrease corresponds to a forcing that is 25% as large as that due to the change in CO2 during this period, considerably larger than expectations from models and other less direct recent estimates. Changes in cloudiness appear to play a negligible role in observed Arctic darkening, thus reducing the possibility of Arctic cloud albedo feedbacks mitigating future Arctic warming. PMID:24550469

Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice.

PubMed

Pistone, Kristina; Eisenman, Ian; Ramanathan, V

2014-03-04

The decline of Arctic sea ice has been documented in over 30 y of satellite passive microwave observations. The resulting darkening of the Arctic and its amplification of global warming was hypothesized almost 50 y ago but has yet to be verified with direct observations. This study uses satellite radiation budget measurements along with satellite microwave sea ice data to document the Arctic-wide decrease in planetary albedo and its amplifying effect on the warming. The analysis reveals a striking relationship between planetary albedo and sea ice cover, quantities inferred from two independent satellite instruments. We find that the Arctic planetary albedo has decreased from 0.52 to 0.48 between 1979 and 2011, corresponding to an additional 6.4 ± 0.9 W/m(2) of solar energy input into the Arctic Ocean region since 1979. Averaged over the globe, this albedo decrease corresponds to a forcing that is 25% as large as that due to the change in CO2 during this period, considerably larger than expectations from models and other less direct recent estimates. Changes in cloudiness appear to play a negligible role in observed Arctic darkening, thus reducing the possibility of Arctic cloud albedo feedbacks mitigating future Arctic warming.

Solving the Sea-Level Equation in an Explicit Time Differencing Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klemann, V.; Hagedoorn, J. M.; Thomas, M.

2016-12-01

In preparation of coupling the solid-earth to an ice-sheet compartment in an earth-system model, the dependency of initial topography on the ice-sheet history and viscosity structure has to be analysed. In this study, we discuss this dependency and how it influences the reconstruction of former sea level during a glacial cycle. The modelling is based on the VILMA code in which the field equations are solved in the time domain applying an explicit time-differencing scheme. The sea-level equation is solved simultaneously in the same explicit scheme as the viscoleastic field equations (Hagedoorn et al., 2007). With the assumption of only small changes, we neglect the iterative solution at each time step as suggested by e.g. Kendall et al. (2005). Nevertheless, the prediction of the initial paleo topography in case of moving coastlines remains to be iterated by repeated integration of the whole load history. The sensitivity study sketched at the beginning is accordingly motivated by the question if the iteration of the paleo topography can be replaced by a predefined one. This study is part of the German paleoclimate modelling initiative PalMod. Lit:Hagedoorn JM, Wolf D, Martinec Z, 2007. An estimate of global mean sea-level rise inferred from tide-gauge measurements using glacial-isostatic models consistent with the relative sea-level record. Pure appl. Geophys. 164: 791-818, doi:10.1007/s00024-007-0186-7Kendall RA, Mitrovica JX, Milne GA, 2005. On post-glacial sea level - II. Numerical formulation and comparative reesults on spherically symmetric models. Geophys. J. Int., 161: 679-706, doi:10.1111/j.365-246.X.2005.02553.x

The Effects of Temperature and Hydrostatic Pressure on Metal Toxicity: Insights into Toxicity in the Deep Sea.

PubMed

Brown, Alastair; Thatje, Sven; Hauton, Chris

2017-09-05

Mineral prospecting in the deep sea is increasing, promoting concern regarding potential ecotoxicological impacts on deep-sea fauna. Technological difficulties in assessing toxicity in deep-sea species has promoted interest in developing shallow-water ecotoxicological proxy species. However, it is unclear how the low temperature and high hydrostatic pressure prevalent in the deep sea affect toxicity, and whether adaptation to deep-sea environmental conditions moderates any effects of these factors. To address these uncertainties we assessed the effects of temperature and hydrostatic pressure on lethal and sublethal (respiration rate, antioxidant enzyme activity) toxicity in acute (96 h) copper and cadmium exposures, using the shallow-water ecophysiological model organism Palaemon varians. Low temperature reduced toxicity in both metals, but reduced cadmium toxicity significantly more. In contrast, elevated hydrostatic pressure increased copper toxicity, but did not affect cadmium toxicity. The synergistic interaction between copper and cadmium was not affected by low temperature, but high hydrostatic pressure significantly enhanced the synergism. Differential environmental effects on toxicity suggest different mechanisms of action for copper and cadmium, and highlight that mechanistic understanding of toxicity is fundamental to predicting environmental effects on toxicity. Although results infer that sensitivity to toxicants differs across biogeographic ranges, shallow-water species may be suitable ecotoxicological proxies for deep-sea species, dependent on adaptation to habitats with similar environmental variability.

Inference generation and story comprehension among children with ADHD.

PubMed

Van Neste, Jessica; Hayden, Angela; Lorch, Elizabeth P; Milich, Richard

2015-02-01

Academic difficulties are well-documented among children with ADHD. Exploring these difficulties through story comprehension research has revealed deficits among children with ADHD in making causal connections between events and in using causal structure and thematic importance to guide recall of stories. Important to theories of story comprehension and implied in these deficits is the ability to make inferences. Often, characters' goals are implicit and explanations of events must be inferred. The purpose of the present study was to compare the inferences generated during story comprehension by 23 7- to 11-year-old children with ADHD (16 males) and 35 comparison peers (19 males). Children watched two televised stories, each paused at five points. In the experimental condition, at each pause children told what they were thinking about the story, whereas in the control condition no responses were made during pauses. After viewing, children recalled the story. Several types of inferences and inference plausibility were coded. Children with ADHD generated fewer of the most essential inferences, plausible explanatory inferences, than did comparison children, both during story processing and during story recall. The groups did not differ on production of other types of inferences. Group differences in generating inferences during the think-aloud task significantly mediated group differences in patterns of recall. Both groups recalled more of the most important story information after completing the think-aloud task. Generating fewer explanatory inferences has important implications for story comprehension deficits in children with ADHD.

Reasoning about Causal Relationships: Inferences on Causal Networks

PubMed Central

Rottman, Benjamin Margolin; Hastie, Reid

2013-01-01

Over the last decade, a normative framework for making causal inferences, Bayesian Probabilistic Causal Networks, has come to dominate psychological studies of inference based on causal relationships. The following causal networks—[X→Y→Z, X←Y→Z, X→Y←Z]—supply answers for questions like, “Suppose both X and Y occur, what is the probability Z occurs?” or “Suppose you intervene and make Y occur, what is the probability Z occurs?” In this review, we provide a tutorial for how normatively to calculate these inferences. Then, we systematically detail the results of behavioral studies comparing human qualitative and quantitative judgments to the normative calculations for many network structures and for several types of inferences on those networks. Overall, when the normative calculations imply that an inference should increase, judgments usually go up; when calculations imply a decrease, judgments usually go down. However, two systematic deviations appear. First, people’s inferences violate the Markov assumption. For example, when inferring Z from the structure X→Y→Z, people think that X is relevant even when Y completely mediates the relationship between X and Z. Second, even when people’s inferences are directionally consistent with the normative calculations, they are often not as sensitive to the parameters and the structure of the network as they should be. We conclude with a discussion of productive directions for future research. PMID:23544658

Association between sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) infestation on Atlantic salmon farms and wild Pacific salmon in Muchalat Inlet, Canada.

PubMed

Nekouei, Omid; Vanderstichel, Raphael; Thakur, Krishna; Arriagada, Gabriel; Patanasatienkul, Thitiwan; Whittaker, Patrick; Milligan, Barry; Stewardson, Lance; Revie, Crawford W

2018-03-05

Growth in salmon aquaculture over the past two decades has raised concerns regarding the potential impacts of the industry on neighboring ecosystems and wild fish productivity. Despite limited evidence, sea lice have been identified as a major cause for the decline in some wild Pacific salmon populations on the west coast of Canada. We used sea lice count and management data from farmed and wild salmon, collected over 10 years (2007-2016) in the Muchalat Inlet region of Canada, to evaluate the association between sea lice recorded on salmon farms with the infestation levels on wild out-migrating Chum salmon. Our analyses indicated a significant positive association between the sea lice abundance on farms and the likelihood that wild fish would be infested. However, increased abundance of lice on farms was not significantly associated with the levels of infestation observed on the wild salmon. Our results suggest that Atlantic salmon farms may be an important source for the introduction of sea lice to wild Pacific salmon populations, but that the absence of a dose response relationship indicates that any estimate of farm impact requires more careful evaluation of causal inference than is typically seen in the extant scientific literature.

Holocene Sea-Levels from Greenland to Antarctica: A Pole-to-Pole Transect of Sea Level History

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, Benjamin; Peltier, William; Roy, Keven; Ashe, Erica; Shaw, Tim; Engelhart, Simon; Khan, Nicole; Kopp, Robert; Simkins, Lauren; Vacchi, Matteo; Woodroffe, Sarah

2017-04-01

The Holocene is the most recent period during which natural temperature variability predominates and, therefore, provides an important paleo perspective for understanding the climate:sea-level relationship prior to anthropogenic modification of the climate system. But our understanding of Holocene sea level is limited by a lack of a standard protocol that incorporates full consideration of vertical and temporal uncertainty for each sea-level index point. We have compiled a Holocene RSL database of 3000 validated sea-level index points from Greenland, North American Atlantic coast, Caribbean, South American Atlantic coast and Antarctica. The databases were collated using a formalized and consistent methodology to facilitate the development and comparison of regional RSL records. The database also includes information relevant to sediment compaction, and modelling of both modern-day and paleotidal ranges. We develop a spatio-temporal empirical hierarchical model to compare regional RSL histories and estimate rates of change. Holocene RSL history from near-field regions (e.g., Antarctica, Greenland and Canada) reveal a complex pattern of RSL fall from a maximum marine limit due to the net effect of eustatic sea-level rise and glacio-isostatic uplift with rates of RSL fall as great as 70 ± 5 m/ka (East Hudson Bay). Intermediate field regions (e.g., North American mid-Atlantic coast) display variable rates of RSL rise from the cumulative effect of eustatic and isostatic factors. Fast rates of RSL rise (up to 10 ± 4m/ka; New Jersey) are found in the early Holocene in regions near the center of forebulge collapse. Far-field RSL records (South American Atlantic coast) exhibit a mid-Holocene highstand, the timing and magnitude of which varies between 8 and 4 ka and <1 and 6 m, respectively. We compare RSL histories with the predictions from two recent models of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) process, namely the ICE-6GC (VM5a) model of Peltier et al. (2015) and the

Inferring Learners' Knowledge from Their Actions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rafferty, Anna N.; LaMar, Michelle M.; Griffiths, Thomas L.

2015-01-01

Watching another person take actions to complete a goal and making inferences about that person's knowledge is a relatively natural task for people. This ability can be especially important in educational settings, where the inferences can be used for assessment, diagnosing misconceptions, and providing informative feedback. In this paper, we…

The Reasoning behind Informal Statistical Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Makar, Katie; Bakker, Arthur; Ben-Zvi, Dani

2011-01-01

Informal statistical inference (ISI) has been a frequent focus of recent research in statistics education. Considering the role that context plays in developing ISI calls into question the need to be more explicit about the reasoning that underpins ISI. This paper uses educational literature on informal statistical inference and philosophical…

Application of Transformations in Parametric Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brownstein, Naomi; Pensky, Marianna

2008-01-01

The objective of the present paper is to provide a simple approach to statistical inference using the method of transformations of variables. We demonstrate performance of this powerful tool on examples of constructions of various estimation procedures, hypothesis testing, Bayes analysis and statistical inference for the stress-strength systems.…

Active inference and robot control: a case study

PubMed Central

Nizard, Ange; Friston, Karl; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2016-01-01

Active inference is a general framework for perception and action that is gaining prominence in computational and systems neuroscience but is less known outside these fields. Here, we discuss a proof-of-principle implementation of the active inference scheme for the control or the 7-DoF arm of a (simulated) PR2 robot. By manipulating visual and proprioceptive noise levels, we show under which conditions robot control under the active inference scheme is accurate. Besides accurate control, our analysis of the internal system dynamics (e.g. the dynamics of the hidden states that are inferred during the inference) sheds light on key aspects of the framework such as the quintessentially multimodal nature of control and the differential roles of proprioception and vision. In the discussion, we consider the potential importance of being able to implement active inference in robots. In particular, we briefly review the opportunities for modelling psychophysiological phenomena such as sensory attenuation and related failures of gain control, of the sort seen in Parkinson's disease. We also consider the fundamental difference between active inference and optimal control formulations, showing that in the former the heavy lifting shifts from solving a dynamical inverse problem to creating deep forward or generative models with dynamics, whose attracting sets prescribe desired behaviours. PMID:27683002

Forward Inferences: From Activation to Long-Term Memory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klin, Celia M.; Murray, John D.; Levine, William H.; Guzman, Alexandria E.

1999-01-01

Investigates the extent to which forward inferences are activated and encoded during reading, as well as their prevalence and their time course. Finds that inferences were encoded and retained in working memory in both high- and low-predictability conditions, and that high-predictability forward inferences were encoded into long-term memory.…

Spontaneous evaluative inferences and their relationship to spontaneous trait inferences.

PubMed

Schneid, Erica D; Carlston, Donal E; Skowronski, John J

2015-05-01

Three experiments are reported that explore affectively based spontaneous evaluative impressions (SEIs) of stimulus persons. Experiments 1 and 2 used modified versions of the savings in relearning paradigm (Carlston & Skowronski, 1994) to confirm the occurrence of SEIs, indicating that they are equivalent whether participants are instructed to form trait impressions, evaluative impressions, or neither. These experiments also show that SEIs occur independently of explicit recall for the trait implications of the stimuli. Experiment 3 provides a single dissociation test to distinguish SEIs from spontaneous trait inferences (STIs), showing that disrupting cognitive processing interferes with a trait-based prediction task that presumably reflects STIs, but not with an affectively based social approach task that presumably reflects SEIs. Implications of these findings for the potential independence of spontaneous trait and evaluative inferences, as well as limitations and important steps for future study are discussed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Cluster mass inference via random field theory.

PubMed

Zhang, Hui; Nichols, Thomas E; Johnson, Timothy D

2009-01-01

Cluster extent and voxel intensity are two widely used statistics in neuroimaging inference. Cluster extent is sensitive to spatially extended signals while voxel intensity is better for intense but focal signals. In order to leverage strength from both statistics, several nonparametric permutation methods have been proposed to combine the two methods. Simulation studies have shown that of the different cluster permutation methods, the cluster mass statistic is generally the best. However, to date, there is no parametric cluster mass inference available. In this paper, we propose a cluster mass inference method based on random field theory (RFT). We develop this method for Gaussian images, evaluate it on Gaussian and Gaussianized t-statistic images and investigate its statistical properties via simulation studies and real data. Simulation results show that the method is valid under the null hypothesis and demonstrate that it can be more powerful than the cluster extent inference method. Further, analyses with a single subject and a group fMRI dataset demonstrate better power than traditional cluster size inference, and good accuracy relative to a gold-standard permutation test.

Leveraging scientific credibility about Arctic sea ice trends in a polarized political environment.

PubMed

Jamieson, Kathleen Hall; Hardy, Bruce W

2014-09-16

This work argues that, in a polarized environment, scientists can minimize the likelihood that the audience's biased processing will lead to rejection of their message if they not only eschew advocacy but also, convey that they are sharers of knowledge faithful to science's way of knowing and respectful of the audience's intelligence; the sources on which they rely are well-regarded by both conservatives and liberals; and the message explains how the scientist arrived at the offered conclusion, is conveyed in a visual form that involves the audience in drawing its own conclusions, and capsulizes key inferences in an illustrative analogy. A pilot experiment raises the possibility that such a leveraging-involving-visualizing-analogizing message structure can increase acceptance of the scientific claims about the downward cross-decade trend in Arctic sea ice extent and elicit inferences consistent with the scientific consensus on climate change among conservatives exposed to misleadingly selective data in a partisan news source.

Leveraging scientific credibility about Arctic sea ice trends in a polarized political environment

PubMed Central

Hall Jamieson, Kathleen; Hardy, Bruce W.

2014-01-01

This work argues that, in a polarized environment, scientists can minimize the likelihood that the audience’s biased processing will lead to rejection of their message if they not only eschew advocacy but also, convey that they are sharers of knowledge faithful to science’s way of knowing and respectful of the audience’s intelligence; the sources on which they rely are well-regarded by both conservatives and liberals; and the message explains how the scientist arrived at the offered conclusion, is conveyed in a visual form that involves the audience in drawing its own conclusions, and capsulizes key inferences in an illustrative analogy. A pilot experiment raises the possibility that such a leveraging–involving–visualizing–analogizing message structure can increase acceptance of the scientific claims about the downward cross-decade trend in Arctic sea ice extent and elicit inferences consistent with the scientific consensus on climate change among conservatives exposed to misleadingly selective data in a partisan news source. PMID:25225380

Sea Fog Research in the United Kingdom and United States: A Historical Essay Including Outlook.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, J. M.; Korain, D.; Redmond, K. T.

2004-03-01

A historical review of research on sea fog is presented. The period of interest is essentially the twentieth century, beginning with the celebrated work of G. I. Taylor in the aftermath of the Titanic tragedy. It has been argued that relative maxima in fog frequency over the North Atlantic (including the Brit-ish Isles and the Grand Banks of Newfoundland) and the North Pacific (including the U.S. West Coast) has led to major contributions by scientists in England and the United States. The early work (pre World War II) tended to be phenomenological—that is, conceptual with broad inference from statistical summaries. Yet, this early work laid the foundation for the numerical modeling that came with the advent of computers in the postwar period. The subtleties associated with sea fog formation and maintenance are explored by analyzing some of the results from the numerical simulations. The essay ends with a speculative view on our prospects for a more complete understanding of sea fog in light of the earlier contributions.

Observational Inferences of Lateral Eddy Diffusivity in the Halocline of the Beaufort Gyre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meneghello, G.; Marshall, J.; Cole, S. T.; Timmermans, M. L.

2017-12-01

Using Ekman pumping rates mediated by sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean's Beaufort Gyre (BG), the magnitude of lateral eddy diffusivities required to balance downward pumping is inferred. In this limit — that of vanishing residual-mean circulation — eddy-induced upwelling exactly balances downward pumping. The implied eddy diffusivity varies spatially with values of 50-400 m2/s, and decays with depth. Eddy diffusivity estimated using mixing length theory applied to BG mooring data exhibits a similar range of values from 100 m2/s to more than 600 m2/s, and also decays with depth. We conclude that eddy diffusivities in the BG are likely large enough to balance downward Ekman pumping, arresting the deepening of the gyre and suggesting that eddies play a zero-order role in buoyancy and freshwater budgets of the BG.

Observational Inferences of Lateral Eddy Diffusivity in the Halocline of the Beaufort Gyre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meneghello, Gianluca; Marshall, John; Cole, Sylvia T.; Timmermans, Mary-Louise

2017-12-01

Using Ekman pumping rates mediated by sea ice in the Arctic Ocean's Beaufort Gyre (BG), the magnitude of lateral eddy diffusivities required to balance downward pumping is inferred. In this limit—that of vanishing residual-mean circulation—eddy-induced upwelling exactly balances downward pumping. The implied eddy diffusivity varies spatially and decays with depth, with values of 50-400 m2/s. Eddy diffusivity estimated using mixing length theory applied to BG mooring data exhibits a similar decay with depth and range of values from 100 m2/s to more than 600 m2/s. We conclude that eddy diffusivities in the BG are likely large enough to balance downward Ekman pumping, arresting the deepening of the gyre and suggesting that eddies play a zero-order role in buoyancy and freshwater budgets of the BG.

Algorithm Optimally Orders Forward-Chaining Inference Rules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, Mark

2008-01-01

People typically develop knowledge bases in a somewhat ad hoc manner by incrementally adding rules with no specific organization. This often results in a very inefficient execution of those rules since they are so often order sensitive. This is relevant to tasks like Deep Space Network in that it allows the knowledge base to be incrementally developed and have it automatically ordered for efficiency. Although data flow analysis was first developed for use in compilers for producing optimal code sequences, its usefulness is now recognized in many software systems including knowledge-based systems. However, this approach for exhaustively computing data-flow information cannot directly be applied to inference systems because of the ubiquitous execution of the rules. An algorithm is presented that efficiently performs a complete producer/consumer analysis for each antecedent and consequence clause in a knowledge base to optimally order the rules to minimize inference cycles. An algorithm was developed that optimally orders a knowledge base composed of forwarding chaining inference rules such that independent inference cycle executions are minimized, thus, resulting in significantly faster execution. This algorithm was integrated into the JPL tool Spacecraft Health Inference Engine (SHINE) for verification and it resulted in a significant reduction in inference cycles for what was previously considered an ordered knowledge base. For a knowledge base that is completely unordered, then the improvement is much greater.

Last interglacial sea levels and regional tectonics from fossil coral reefs at the Gulf of Aqaba

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bar, N.; Agnon, A.; Yehudai, M.; Lazar, B.; Shaked, Y.; Stein, M.

2017-12-01

Elevated fossil reef terraces along the northeast coast of the Gulf of Aqaba (GOA) illuminate the history of tectonic uplift and sea-level changes during the last interglacial period. The terraces comprise fringing reefs, some with clear reef structure that includes a reef flat and a shallow back lagoon accurately marking sea-levels. U-Th ages of precipitation of aragonitic corals and recrystallization of aragonite to calcite corals from three terraces are used to constrain the local sea-level pattern. Terrace R3 was probably formed during an earlier stage of MIS5e at 130-132 ka and recrystallized to calcite at 124±8 ka. Terrace R2, comprising a wide and developed reef flat, formed during a stable sea level of MIS5e at 129-121 ka and recrystallized to calcite at 104±6 ka. Terrace R1 formed during a short still-stand at 117 ka. All terraces formed when sea level was a few meters above the modern GOA level. The recrystallization age of Terrace R2 implies that at around 104±6 ka (MIS5c) sea level was close to its MIS5e elevation. The tectonic setting is superimposed by local faulting that caused small vertical displacements within the terraces. The elevation and ages of the reef flats indicate a slow average uplift, 0.12±0.05 m/kyr, similar to rates inferred for other reef terraces along GOA and the Red Sea. This implies an overall long-term slow tectonic uplift of the Arabian lithosphere during the late Quaternary.

Homoacetogenesis in Deep-Sea Chloroflexi, as Inferred by Single-Cell Genomics, Provides a Link to Reductive Dehalogenation in Terrestrial Dehalococcoidetes.

PubMed

Sewell, Holly L; Kaster, Anne-Kristin; Spormann, Alfred M

2017-12-19

The deep marine subsurface is one of the largest unexplored biospheres on Earth and is widely inhabited by members of the phylum Chloroflexi In this report, we investigated genomes of single cells obtained from deep-sea sediments of the Peruvian Margin, which are enriched in such Chloroflexi 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis placed two of these single-cell-derived genomes (DscP3 and Dsc4) in a clade of subphylum I Chloroflexi which were previously recovered from deep-sea sediment in the Okinawa Trough and a third (DscP2-2) as a member of the previously reported DscP2 population from Peruvian Margin site 1230. The presence of genes encoding enzymes of a complete Wood-Ljungdahl pathway, glycolysis/gluconeogenesis, a Rhodobacter nitrogen fixation (Rnf) complex, glyosyltransferases, and formate dehydrogenases in the single-cell genomes of DscP3 and Dsc4 and the presence of an NADH-dependent reduced ferredoxin:NADP oxidoreductase (Nfn) and Rnf in the genome of DscP2-2 imply a homoacetogenic lifestyle of these abundant marine Chloroflexi We also report here the first complete pathway for anaerobic benzoate oxidation to acetyl coenzyme A (CoA) in the phylum Chloroflexi (DscP3 and Dsc4), including a class I benzoyl-CoA reductase. Of remarkable evolutionary significance, we discovered a gene encoding a formate dehydrogenase (FdnI) with reciprocal closest identity to the formate dehydrogenase-like protein (complex iron-sulfur molybdoenzyme [CISM], DET0187) of terrestrial Dehalococcoides/Dehalogenimonas spp. This formate dehydrogenase-like protein has been shown to lack formate dehydrogenase activity in Dehalococcoides/Dehalogenimonas spp. and is instead hypothesized to couple HupL hydrogenase to a reductive dehalogenase in the catabolic reductive dehalogenation pathway. This finding of a close functional homologue provides an important missing link for understanding the origin and the metabolic core of terrestrial Dehalococcoides/Dehalogenimonas spp. and of reductive

The distribution and diversity of sea cucumbers in the coral reefs of the South China Sea, Sulu Sea and Sulawesi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Sau Pinn; Yasin, Zulfigar; Ismail, Siti Hasmah; Tan, Shau Hwai

2013-11-01

A study on the distribution and diversity of sea cucumbers in the coral reefs of the South China Sea, Sulu Sea and Sulawesi Sea was carried out in July 2009. The survey was done using wandering transect underwater with SCUBA. Twelve species of sea cucumber were found from four different families and nine genera. The most dominant family was Holothuriidae (five species), followed by Stichopodidae (three species), Synaptidae (three species) and Cucumariidae with only one species. The most dominant species found around the island was Pearsonothuria graffei, which can be found abundantly on substrate of dead corals in a wide range of depth (6-15 m). The Sulawesi Sea showed a higher diversity of sea cucumber with seven different species compared to the South China Sea with only six different species and Sulu Sea with only two species. Ordination by multidimensional scaling of Bray-Curtis similarities clustered the sampling locations to three main clusters with two outgroups. Previous studies done indicated a higher diversity of sea cucumber as compared to this study. This can be indication that the population and diversity of sea cucumbers in the reef is under threat.

Reasoning about Informal Statistical Inference: One Statistician's View

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rossman, Allan J.

2008-01-01

This paper identifies key concepts and issues associated with the reasoning of informal statistical inference. I focus on key ideas of inference that I think all students should learn, including at secondary level as well as tertiary. I argue that a fundamental component of inference is to go beyond the data at hand, and I propose that statistical…

Flexible retrieval: When true inferences produce false memories.

PubMed

Carpenter, Alexis C; Schacter, Daniel L

2017-03-01

Episodic memory involves flexible retrieval processes that allow us to link together distinct episodes, make novel inferences across overlapping events, and recombine elements of past experiences when imagining future events. However, the same flexible retrieval and recombination processes that underpin these adaptive functions may also leave memory prone to error or distortion, such as source misattributions in which details of one event are mistakenly attributed to another related event. To determine whether the same recombination-related retrieval mechanism supports both successful inference and source memory errors, we developed a modified version of an associative inference paradigm in which participants encoded everyday scenes comprised of people, objects, and other contextual details. These scenes contained overlapping elements (AB, BC) that could later be linked to support novel inferential retrieval regarding elements that had not appeared together previously (AC). Our critical experimental manipulation concerned whether contextual details were probed before or after the associative inference test, thereby allowing us to assess whether (a) false memories increased for successful versus unsuccessful inferences, and (b) any such effects were specific to after compared with before participants received the inference test. In each of 4 experiments that used variants of this paradigm, participants were more susceptible to false memories for contextual details after successful than unsuccessful inferential retrieval, but only when contextual details were probed after the associative inference test. These results suggest that the retrieval-mediated recombination mechanism that underlies associative inference also contributes to source misattributions that result from combining elements of distinct episodes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Flexible Retrieval: When True Inferences Produce False Memories

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Alexis C.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2016-01-01

Episodic memory involves flexible retrieval processes that allow us to link together distinct episodes, make novel inferences across overlapping events, and recombine elements of past experiences when imagining future events. However, the same flexible retrieval and recombination processes that underpin these adaptive functions may also leave memory prone to error or distortion, such as source misattributions in which details of one event are mistakenly attributed to another related event. To determine whether the same recombination-related retrieval mechanism supports both successful inference and source memory errors, we developed a modified version of an associative inference paradigm in which participants encoded everyday scenes comprised of people, objects, and other contextual details. These scenes contained overlapping elements (AB, BC) that could later be linked to support novel inferential retrieval regarding elements that had not appeared together previously (AC). Our critical experimental manipulation concerned whether contextual details were probed before or after the associative inference test, thereby allowing us to assess whether a) false memories increased for successful versus unsuccessful inferences, and b) any such effects were specific to after as compared to before participants received the inference test. In each of four experiments that used variants of this paradigm, participants were more susceptible to false memories for contextual details after successful than unsuccessful inferential retrieval, but only when contextual details were probed after the associative inference test. These results suggest that the retrieval-mediated recombination mechanism that underlies associative inference also contributes to source misattributions that result from combining elements of distinct episodes. PMID:27918169

Meta-learning framework applied in bioinformatics inference system design.

PubMed

Arredondo, Tomás; Ormazábal, Wladimir

2015-01-01

This paper describes a meta-learner inference system development framework which is applied and tested in the implementation of bioinformatic inference systems. These inference systems are used for the systematic classification of the best candidates for inclusion in bacterial metabolic pathway maps. This meta-learner-based approach utilises a workflow where the user provides feedback with final classification decisions which are stored in conjunction with analysed genetic sequences for periodic inference system training. The inference systems were trained and tested with three different data sets related to the bacterial degradation of aromatic compounds. The analysis of the meta-learner-based framework involved contrasting several different optimisation methods with various different parameters. The obtained inference systems were also contrasted with other standard classification methods with accurate prediction capabilities observed.

Turbidity in the southern Irish Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowers, D. G.; Gaffney, S.; White, M.; Bowyer, P.

2002-10-01

This paper presents new in situ optical and associated measurements from 85 stations in the central and southern Irish Sea. There is a strong linear relationship between the irradiance reflectance RA in the orange-red part of the spectrum (580-680 nm) and the diffuse attenuation coefficient, K, for white light: K=0.05+0.26 R A, where K is in m -1 and RA has been corrected to just above-surface reflectance and expressed as a percentage. The significance of this result is that this particular reflectance can be measured by the advanced very high resolution radiometer on board the NOAA series of satellites. In principle, therefore, cloud cover permitting, the transparency of the Irish Sea to sunlight, can be mapped from space. This result is shown to be consistent with a simple optical model in which light scattering is principally by mineral suspended solids, and light absorption is by water, mineral suspended solids and chlorophyll. Best fit between model and observations is achieved with a specific scattering coefficient of 0.5 m 2 g -1. The measurements were made during four cruises, at different times of year and across the range of turbidity found in the Irish Sea. The geographical distribution of suspended sediments confirms the presence, previously inferred from satellite imagery, of two separate turbidity maxima, one off Wicklow Head, the other off Anglesey. These correspond to the areas of strongest tidal currents. Yellow substance was found in highest concentration in a band along the Irish coast. Chlorophyll concentrations were generally low during these cruises. A residual problem is that a direct comparison of in situ reflectance and satellite measured reflectance possible on one of the cruises shows a serious discrepancy, although on average there appears to be a good agreement between satellite and in situ reflectance.

High Resolution Tsunami Modeling and Assessment of Harbor Resilience; Case Study in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Aytore, Betul; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Kanoglu, Utku; Duzgun, Sebnem; Zaytsev, Andrey; Arikawa, Taro; Tomita, Takashi; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

2014-05-01

Ports and harbors are the major vulnerable coastal structures under tsunami attack. Resilient harbors against tsunami impacts are essential for proper, efficient and successful rescue operations and reduction of the loss of life and property by tsunami disasters. There are several critical coastal structures as such in the Marmara Sea. Haydarpasa and Yenikapi ports are located in the Marmara Sea coast of Istanbul. These two ports are selected as the sites of numerical experiments to test their resilience under tsunami impact. Cargo, container and ro-ro handlings, and short/long distance passenger transfers are the common services in both ports. Haydarpasa port has two breakwaters with the length of three kilometers in total. Yenikapi port has one kilometer long breakwater. The accurate resilience analysis needs high resolution tsunami modeling and careful assessment of the site. Therefore, building data with accurate coordinates of their foot prints and elevations are obtained. The high resolution bathymetry and topography database with less than 5m grid size is developed for modeling. The metadata of the several types of structures and infrastructure of the ports and environs are processed. Different resistances for the structures/buildings/infrastructures are controlled by assigning different friction coefficients in a friction matrix. Two different tsunami conditions - high expected and moderate expected - are selected for numerical modeling. The hybrid tsunami simulation and visualization codes NAMI DANCE, STOC-CADMAS System are utilized to solve all necessary tsunami parameters and obtain the spatial and temporal distributions of flow depth, current velocity, inundation distance and maximum water level in the study domain. Finally, the computed critical values of tsunami parameters are evaluated and structural performance of the port components are discussed in regard to a better resilience. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Support by EU 603839 ASTARTE Project, UDAP-Ç-12

Unconscious relational inference recruits the hippocampus.

PubMed

Reber, Thomas P; Luechinger, Roger; Boesiger, Peter; Henke, Katharina

2012-05-02

Relational inference denotes the capacity to encode, flexibly retrieve, and integrate multiple memories to combine past experiences to update knowledge and improve decision-making in new situations. Although relational inference is thought to depend on the hippocampus and consciousness, we now show in young, healthy men that it may occur outside consciousness but still recruits the hippocampus. In temporally distinct and unique subliminal episodes, we presented word pairs that either overlapped ("winter-red", "red-computer") or not. Effects of unconscious relational inference emerged in reaction times recorded during unconscious encoding and in the outcome of decisions made 1 min later at test, when participants judged the semantic relatedness of two supraliminal words. These words were either episodically related through a common word ("winter-computer" related through "red") or unrelated. Hippocampal activity increased during the unconscious encoding of overlapping versus nonoverlapping word pairs and during the unconscious retrieval of episodically related versus unrelated words. Furthermore, hippocampal activity during unconscious encoding predicted the outcome of decisions made at test. Hence, unconscious inference may influence decision-making in new situations.

7 CFR 1437.310 - Sea grass and sea oats.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 10 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Sea grass and sea oats. 1437.310 Section 1437.310 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT... Determining Coverage Using Value § 1437.310 Sea grass and sea oats. (a) Sea grass and sea oats are value loss...

7 CFR 1437.310 - Sea grass and sea oats.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 10 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Sea grass and sea oats. 1437.310 Section 1437.310 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT... Determining Coverage Using Value § 1437.310 Sea grass and sea oats. (a) Sea grass and sea oats are value loss...

7 CFR 1437.310 - Sea grass and sea oats.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 10 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Sea grass and sea oats. 1437.310 Section 1437.310 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT... Determining Coverage Using Value § 1437.310 Sea grass and sea oats. (a) Sea grass and sea oats are value loss...

Taphonomic problems in reconstructing sea-level history from the late Quaternary marine terraces of Barbados

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muhs, Daniel; Simmons, Kathleen R.

2017-01-01

Although uranium series (U-series) ages of growth-position fossil corals are important to Quaternary sea-level history, coral clast reworking from storms can yield ages on a terrace dating to more than one high-sea stand, confounding interpretations of sea-level history. On northern Barbados, U-series ages corals from a thick storm deposit are not always younger with successively higher stratigraphic positions, but all date to the last interglacial period (~127 ka to ~112 ka), Marine Isotope Substage (MIS) 5.5. The storm deposit ages are consistent with the ages of growth-position corals found at the base of the section and at landward localities on this terrace. Thus, in this case, analysis of only a few corals would not have led to an error in interpreting sea-level history. In contrast, a notch cut into older Pleistocene limestone below the MIS 5.5 terrace contains corals that date to both MIS 5.5 (~125 ka) and MIS 5.3 (~108 ka). We infer that the notch formed during MIS 5.3 and the MIS 5.5 corals are reworked. Similar multiple ages of corals on terraces have been reported elsewhere on Barbados. Thus, care must be taken in interpreting U-series ages of corals that are reported without consideration of taphonomy.

Common-Sense Rule Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardi, Ilaria; Console, Luca

In the paper we show how rule-based inference can be made more flexible by exploiting semantic information associated with the concepts involved in the rules. We introduce flexible forms of common sense reasoning in which whenever no rule applies to a given situation, the inference engine can fire rules that apply to more general or to similar situations. This can be obtained by defining new forms of match between rules and the facts in the working memory and new forms of conflict resolution. We claim that in this way we can overcome some of the brittleness problems that are common in rule-based systems.

Intra-basinal water movements induced by faulting: The August 17, 1999, Golcuk (Izmit Bay) earthquake (M(W) = 7.4)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ozturk, H.; Koral, H.; Geist, E.L.

2000-01-01

A strong earthquake (M(w) = 7.4) occurred near the town of Golcuk, Izmit Bay, Western Turkey, at 00:01 GMT on August 17, 1999. Izmit Bay is a E-W trending pull-apart basin with a surface area of about 300 km2 along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAF), in the eastern extension of the Sea of Marmara. The earthquake was caused by a westerly movement of the Anatolian plate along NAF and was accompanied by isolated, chaotic water movements along the northern and southern shores of the bay. At localities along the shoreline a sudden drop in sea level, and a subsequent rise was prominent. The mode of observed sea-level movements rules out the occurrence of a basin-wide tsunami, sensu stricto. Instead, the water movements are attributed to localized sudden dip-slip movements of fault blocks in this pull-apart basin. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

The Effects of Historical Earthquakes on Cyzicus Ancient City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adatepe, F.; Demirel, S.; Vardar, D.

2012-04-01

Cyzicus is one of the most important ancient settlement of Mysia region on Marmara coasts in Turkey. It's located on Belkis Tombolo which connects Kapıdağ (Arktonnesos) Peninsula to the shore. It was established by the King Cyzicus Kyzikos in B.C. 749 as a Miletos colony during the colonization movements of Ions. The main reason to determine the establishment place of Cyzicus was; a strong defense system formed by the natural conditions and the walls surrounding the city. In addition, from the documents, 3 natural harbor (one of them inner harbor) and one artificial canal in the ancient city has been designated. Because of these features, the ancient city had been developed by maritime trade and fisheries. And also, city's economy had grown due to its fertile soil. Works in marble that came from Marmara Island, were being effective in the artistic activities in the city. Due to the capital city of East Roman Empire was being Constantine (AD 324), the chance of Cyzicus was affected badly. Since its location on the south branch of the North Anatolian Fault zone in the Marmara Sea, ancient city was being ruined by a series of earthquakes. There were fifteen (15) destructive earthquakes occurred between AD 29 - 1887. For example the region had become a swamp because of AD 740 earthquake. At that time, despite metropolitan center pass through to Erdek, the city was not fully abandoned. In the end, the earthquake of 1064 had completely demolished Cyzicus. At the present day, this ancient city has come to the point to be lost in swamps, brushes and shrubs.

Statistical inference and Aristotle's Rhetoric.

PubMed

Macdonald, Ranald R

2004-11-01

Formal logic operates in a closed system where all the information relevant to any conclusion is present, whereas this is not the case when one reasons about events and states of the world. Pollard and Richardson drew attention to the fact that the reasoning behind statistical tests does not lead to logically justifiable conclusions. In this paper statistical inferences are defended not by logic but by the standards of everyday reasoning. Aristotle invented formal logic, but argued that people mostly get at the truth with the aid of enthymemes--incomplete syllogisms which include arguing from examples, analogies and signs. It is proposed that statistical tests work in the same way--in that they are based on examples, invoke the analogy of a model and use the size of the effect under test as a sign that the chance hypothesis is unlikely. Of existing theories of statistical inference only a weak version of Fisher's takes this into account. Aristotle anticipated Fisher by producing an argument of the form that there were too many cases in which an outcome went in a particular direction for that direction to be plausibly attributed to chance. We can therefore conclude that Aristotle would have approved of statistical inference and there is a good reason for calling this form of statistical inference classical.

Children's and adults' judgments of the certainty of deductive inferences, inductive inferences, and guesses.

PubMed

Pillow, Bradford H; Pearson, Raeanne M; Hecht, Mary; Bremer, Amanda

2010-01-01

Children and adults rated their own certainty following inductive inferences, deductive inferences, and guesses. Beginning in kindergarten, participants rated deductions as more certain than weak inductions or guesses. Deductions were rated as more certain than strong inductions beginning in Grade 3, and fourth-grade children and adults differentiated strong inductions, weak inductions, and informed guesses from pure guesses. By Grade 3, participants also gave different types of explanations for their deductions and inductions. These results are discussed in relation to children's concepts of cognitive processes, logical reasoning, and epistemological development.

7 CFR 1437.310 - Sea grass and sea oats.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 10 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Sea grass and sea oats. 1437.310 Section 1437.310... Determining Coverage Using Value § 1437.310 Sea grass and sea oats. (a) Sea grass and sea oats are value loss... paragraphs (c) through (h) of this section, except to the extent that similar provisions apply to claims...

7 CFR 1437.310 - Sea grass and sea oats.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Sea grass and sea oats. 1437.310 Section 1437.310... Determining Coverage Using Value § 1437.310 Sea grass and sea oats. (a) Sea grass and sea oats are value loss... paragraphs (c) through (h) of this section, except to the extent that similar provisions apply to claims...

Rapid Ice-Sheet Changes and Mechanical Coupling to Solid-Earth/Sea-Level and Space Geodetic Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E. Y.

2015-12-01

Perturbations in gravitational and rotational potentials caused by climate driven mass redistribution on the earth's surface, such as ice sheet melting and terrestrial water storage, affect the spatiotemporal variability in global and regional sea level. Here we present a numerically accurate, computationally efficient, high-resolution model for sea level. Unlike contemporary models that are based on spherical-harmonic formulation, the model can operate efficiently in a flexible embedded finite-element mesh system, thus capturing the physics operating at km-scale yet capable of simulating geophysical quantities that are inherently of global scale with minimal computational cost. One obvious application is to compute evolution of sea level fingerprints and associated geodetic and astronomical observables (e.g., geoid height, gravity anomaly, solid-earth deformation, polar motion, and geocentric motion) as a companion to a numerical 3-D thermo-mechanical ice sheet simulation, thus capturing global signatures of climate driven mass redistribution. We evaluate some important time-varying signatures of GRACE inferred ice sheet mass balance and continental hydrological budget; for example, we identify dominant sources of ongoing sea-level change at the selected tide gauge stations, and explain the relative contribution of different sources to the observed polar drift. We also report our progress on ice-sheet/solid-earth/sea-level model coupling efforts toward realistic simulation of Pine Island Glacier over the past several hundred years.

Inferring the temperature dependence of population parameters: the effects of experimental design and inference algorithm

PubMed Central

Palamara, Gian Marco; Childs, Dylan Z; Clements, Christopher F; Petchey, Owen L; Plebani, Marco; Smith, Matthew J

2014-01-01

Understanding and quantifying the temperature dependence of population parameters, such as intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity, is critical for predicting the ecological responses to environmental change. Many studies provide empirical estimates of such temperature dependencies, but a thorough investigation of the methods used to infer them has not been performed yet. We created artificial population time series using a stochastic logistic model parameterized with the Arrhenius equation, so that activation energy drives the temperature dependence of population parameters. We simulated different experimental designs and used different inference methods, varying the likelihood functions and other aspects of the parameter estimation methods. Finally, we applied the best performing inference methods to real data for the species Paramecium caudatum. The relative error of the estimates of activation energy varied between 5% and 30%. The fraction of habitat sampled played the most important role in determining the relative error; sampling at least 1% of the habitat kept it below 50%. We found that methods that simultaneously use all time series data (direct methods) and methods that estimate population parameters separately for each temperature (indirect methods) are complementary. Indirect methods provide a clearer insight into the shape of the functional form describing the temperature dependence of population parameters; direct methods enable a more accurate estimation of the parameters of such functional forms. Using both methods, we found that growth rate and carrying capacity of Paramecium caudatum scale with temperature according to different activation energies. Our study shows how careful choice of experimental design and inference methods can increase the accuracy of the inferred relationships between temperature and population parameters. The comparison of estimation methods provided here can increase the accuracy of model predictions, with important

Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.

PubMed

Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S

2016-03-01

Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme.

A study of the Alboran sea mesoscale system by means of empirical orthogonal function decomposition of satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldacci, A.; Corsini, G.; Grasso, R.; Manzella, G.; Allen, J. T.; Cipollini, P.; Guymer, T. H.; Snaith, H. M.

2001-05-01

This paper presents the results of a combined empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sea surface temperature (SST) data and sea-viewing wide field-of-view sensor (SeaWiFS) chlorophyll concentration data over the Alboran Sea (Western Mediterranean), covering a period of 1 year (November 1997-October 1998). The aim of this study is to go beyond the limited temporal extent of available in situ measurements by inferring the temporal and spatial variability of the Alboran Gyre system from long temporal series of satellite observations, in order to gain insight on the interactions between the circulation and the biological activity in the system. In this context, EOF decomposition permits concise and synoptic representation of the effects of physical and biological phenomena traced by SST and chlorophyll concentration. Thus, it is possible to focus the analysis on the most significant phenomena and to understand better the complex interactions between physics and biology at the mesoscale. The results of the EOF analysis of AVHRR-SST and SeaWiFS-chlorophyll concentration data are presented and discussed in detail. These improve and complement the knowledge acquired during the in situ observational campaigns of the MAST-III Observations and Modelling of Eddy scale Geostrophic and Ageostrophic motion (OMEGA) Project.

Sublacustrine river valley in the shelf zone of the Black Sea parallel to the Bulgarian coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preisinger, A.; Aslanian, S.; Beigelbeck, R.; Heinitz, W.-D.

2009-04-01

content. The first 36 cm of the core exhibited the highest water content of 40%. A similar result was found by utilizing quantitative analyses on the basis of framboidal greigites (Fe3S4) in sulfat-reducing bacteria, which show a minimum in this part. The results achieved by our SES-based sediment analysis method enable an insight into the evolution of the sublacustrine river valley. For example, they revealed that the sediment layers are asymmetrically deposited regarding the vertical centre of the river's cross section. This effect can be attributed to Baer-Babinet's law, which is, in this particular case, a direct consequence of the Coriolis forces acting on the counterclockwise flowing rim current near the coast line of the Bulgarian Black Sea (Einstein, 1926). Another important result of our analysis is the localization of different periods which took place since the entrance of water from the Marmara Sea over the Bosporus 9.300 years ago. They are identified by different water and greigites contents and last 352 ± 16 years. References: Preisinger, A., Aslanian, S., Heinitz, W.-D., 2005. The formation of a sublacustrine river valley in the Bulgarian shelf zone of the Black Sea. EGU-Meeting, Vienna, April 2005. Heinitz, W.-D., Ewert, J., Wunderlich, J., 1998. DSP-gestützte Signalverarbeitung im Sediment-Echolot-System SES-96, 9. Symposium Maritime Elektronik, Tagungsband, Rostock 1998. Einstein, A., 1926. Die Ursache der Mäanderbildung der Flussläufe und des sogenannten Baerschen Gesetzes. Die Naturwissenschaften, Volume 2, p.223-224.

Short pulse radar used to measure sea surface wind speed and SWH. [Significant Wave Height

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammond, D. L.; Mennella, R. A.; Walsh, E. J.

1977-01-01

A joint airborne measurement program is being pursued by NRL and NASA Wallops Flight Center to determine the extent to which wind speed and sea surface significant wave height (SWH) can be measured quantitatively and remotely with a short pulse (2 ns), wide-beam (60 deg), nadir-looking 3-cm radar. The concept involves relative power measurements only and does not need a scanning antenna, Doppler filters, or absolute power calibration. The slopes of the leading and trailing edges of the averaged received power for the pulse limited altimeter are used to infer SWH and surface wind speed. The interpretation is based on theoretical models of the effects of SWH on the leading edge shape and rms sea-surface slope on the trailing-edge shape. The models include the radar system parameters of antenna beam width and pulsewidth.

Using Alien Coins to Test Whether Simple Inference Is Bayesian

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E.; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D.

2016-01-01

Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we…

Causal inference from observational data.

PubMed

Listl, Stefan; Jürges, Hendrik; Watt, Richard G

2016-10-01

Randomized controlled trials have long been considered the 'gold standard' for causal inference in clinical research. In the absence of randomized experiments, identification of reliable intervention points to improve oral health is often perceived as a challenge. But other fields of science, such as social science, have always been challenged by ethical constraints to conducting randomized controlled trials. Methods have been established to make causal inference using observational data, and these methods are becoming increasingly relevant in clinical medicine, health policy and public health research. This study provides an overview of state-of-the-art methods specifically designed for causal inference in observational data, including difference-in-differences (DiD) analyses, instrumental variables (IV), regression discontinuity designs (RDD) and fixed-effects panel data analysis. The described methods may be particularly useful in dental research, not least because of the increasing availability of routinely collected administrative data and electronic health records ('big data'). © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evolution of the continental margin of southern Spain and the Alboran Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dillon, William P.; Robb, James M.; Greene, H. Gary; Lucena, Juan Carlos

1980-01-01

Seismic reflection profiles and magnetic intensity measurements were collected across the southern continental margin of Spain and the Alboran basin between Spain and Africa. Correlation of the distinct seismic stratigraphy observed in the profiles to stratigraphic information obtained from cores at Deep Sea Drilling Project site 121 allows effective dating of tectonic events. The Alboran Sea basin occupies a zone of motion between the African and Iberian lithospheric plates that probably began to form by extension in late Miocene time (Tortonian). At the end of Miocene time (end of Messinian) profiles show that an angular unconformity was cut, and then the strata were block faulted before subsequent deposition. The erosion of the unconformity probably resulted from lowering of Mediterranean sea level by evaporation when the previous channel between the Mediterranean and Atlantic was closed. Continued extension probably caused the block faulting and, eventually the opening of the present channel to the Atlantic through the Strait of Gibraltar and the reflooding of the Mediterranean. Minor tectonic movements at the end of Calabrian time (early Pleistocene) apparently resulted in minor faulting, extensive transgression in southeastern Spain, and major changes in the sedimentary environment of the Alboran basin. Active faulting observed at five locations on seismic profiles seems to form a NNE zone of transcurrent movement across the Alboran Sea. This inferred fault trend is coincident with some bathymetric, magnetic and seismicity trends and colinear with active faults that have been mapped on-shore in Morocco and Spain. The faults were probably caused by stresses related to plate movements, and their direction was modified by inherited fractures in the lithosphere that floors the Alboran Sea.

Paleobathymetric Reconstruction of Ross Sea: seismic data processing and regional reflectors mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivo, Elisabetta; De Santis, Laura; Wardell, Nigel; Geletti, Riccardo; Busetti, Martina; Sauli, Chiara; Bergamasco, Andrea; Colleoni, Florence; Vanzella, Walter; Sorlien, Christopher; Wilson, Doug; De Conto, Robert; Powell, Ross; Bart, Phil; Luyendyk, Bruce

2017-04-01

PURPOSE: New maps of some major unconformities of the Ross Sea have been reconstructed, by using seismic data grids, combined with the acoustic velocities from previous works, from new and reprocessed seismic profiles. This work is carried out with the support of PNRA and in the frame of the bilateral Italy-USA project GLAISS (Global Sea Level Rise & Antarctic Ice Sheet Stability predictions), funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Paleobathymetric maps of 30, 14 and 4 million years ago, three 'key moments' for the glacial history of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, coinciding with global climatic changes. The paleobathymetric maps will then be used for numeric simulations focused on the width and thickness of the Ross Sea Ice Sheet. PRELIMINARY RESULTS: The first step was to create TWT maps of three main unconformity (RSU6, RSU4, and RSU2) of Ross Sea, revisiting and updating the ANTOSTRAT maps, through the interpretation of sedimentary bodies and erosional features, used to infer active or old processes along the slope, we identified the main seismic unconformities. We used the HIS Kingdom academic license. The different groups contribution was on the analysis of the Eastern Ross Sea continental slope and rise (OGS), of the Central Basin (KOPRI) of the western and central Ross Sea (Univ. of Santa Barbara and OGS), where new drill sites and seismic profiles were collected after the publication of the ANTOSTRAT maps. Than we joined our interpretation with previous interpretations. We examined previous processing of several seismic lines and all the old acoustic velocity analysis. In addiction we reprocessed some lines in order to have a higher data coverage. Then, combining the TWT maps of the unconformity with the old and new speed data we created new depth maps of the study area. The new depth maps will then be used for reconstructing the paleobathymetry of the Ross Sea by applying backstripping technique.

Cenozoic pre-glacial tectonostratigraphy and erosion estimates for the northwestern Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasabuda, Amando; Sverre Laberg, Jan; Knutsen, Stig-Morten

2017-04-01

The northwestern Barents Sea continental margin is located between Bjørnøya and Svalbard. It is a structurally complex area characterized by a series of highs and basins influenced by: 1) the formation of the Spitsbergen fold-and-thrust belt towards the north and the pull-apart basin, the Vestbakken Volcanic Province, to the south, and 2) the rifting and opening of the Fram Strait, the deep-water gateway connecting the Norwegian - Greenland Sea and the Arctic Ocean. This study incorporate newly available 2D seismic data as well as magnetic data, and aim to improve the understanding of the Cenozoic evolution of this area, including better constrain of the timing of the main sedimentation events of the Cenozoic basins and estimates of the volume of sediments involved and the corresponding rates of erosion of the drainage area. The Cenozoic development of this area is strongly related to the rifting and opening of the Norwegian-Greenland Sea. During the Paleocene-Eocene, the northwestern Barents Sea margin were subjected to compression/transpression when Greenland drifted towards Svalbard that led to uplift and the development of fold-and-thrust belt on Svalbard. Subsequently, from the Oligocene, a tectonic plate reorganization occurred, leading to crustal extension, sea floor spreading and opening of the Fram Strait west of Svalbard. The seismic data shows a pronounced sequence of Early - Mid Cenozoic, pre-glacial sediments overlying the oceanic crust west of Svalbard while to the east, the Svalbard platform and the Stappen High were subjected to erosion and probably acted as the main sediment source for the northwestern Barents Sea margin. The amount of erosion will be estimated from the study of the deposited sediment volumes and their inferred source area. We will then compare the sedimentation and erosion rates to rates from other parts of the Norwegian - Barents Sea - Svalbard margin as well as relevant modern systems. Furthermore, the Cenozoic paleo

Monsoonal upwelling in the western Arabian Sea since the middle Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, G.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

The Asian monsoon has long been argued to be a product of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau, and simulation experiments have confirmed the key role of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau in transforming regional atmospheric and oceanic circulations. However, temporal constraints on the strengthening of the Asian monsoon inferred from foraminifer isotopic and faunal data and terrestrial climatic and ecological records are inconsistent with each other, which has obscured the tectonic-climatic linkage. In particular, discriminating the post-middle Miocene global cooling from the monsoon upwelling cooling is critical, but poorly understood due to the lack of adequate constraints for monsoonal upwelling. Here we present new middle to late Miocene biomarker-based reconstructions of sea-surface temperature (SST) for the western Arabian Sea. Our new SSTs capture a long-term ocean cooling since ca. 14.8 Ma and a major drop in SST in the period 11-10 Ma after which the SSTs reached similar values as the Holocene. The new SST record is consistent with planktonic foraminifer, siliceous biota, and geochemical tracer studies, suggestive of ocean cooling and high productivity associated with monsoonal upwelling. The 11-10 Ma ocean cooling is not clearly expressed in other tropical oceans, indicating that the ocean cooling in the western Arabian Sea is not a simple reflection of global cooling. We interpret the 11-10 Ma ocean cooling as representing the establishment of monsoonal upwelling in the western Arabian Sea, triggered by strong cyclonic activities as a result of the Neogene outward expansion of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau.

Patterns and inferred processes associated with sea turtle strandings in Paraíba State, Northeast Brazil.

PubMed

Poli, C; Lopez, L C S; Mesquita, D O; Saska, C; Mascarenhas, R

2014-05-01

This study analysed sea turtle strandings on the coast of Paraíba State, Northeastern Brazil, from August 2009 to July 2010. A total of 124 strandings were recorded in this period: green turtle Chelonia mydas (n = 106), hawksbill Eretmochelys imbricata (n = 15), olive ridley Lepidochelys olivacea (n = 2) and loggerhead Caretta caretta (n = 1). Of all turtles for which the Curved Carapace Length (CCL) was measured (n = 122), only 12 individuals (9.7%) were adults. Twenty individuals had synthetic anthropogenic debris in the gastrointestinal tract. Other traces of human interactions were observed in 43 individuals, such as injuries caused by entanglement in fishing lines or nets, collisions with vessels, direct contact with oil spills and lesions caused by sharp or spiked objects. Moreover, in 28.5% of the stranded turtles, the presence of external tumors was noticed, suggestive of fibropapillomatosis and in 9.7%, shark bite marks were observed. Of the 107 individuals that were sexed, 76 were females and 31 were males. Most turtles (72.6%) became stranded during the spring/summer (between October and March). We found evidence of human interactions (injuries) in half of the strandings, but in most cases it was not possible to determine if such interactions were the cause of death. A logistic regression found a significant relationship between CCL, ingestion of debris and lesions caused by sharks or spiked objects. Systematic data collection from stranded sea turtles can provide useful biological information, such as seasonal and spatial patterns in their occurrence and mortality, age structure, sex ratio and diet, as well as possible mortality causes.

Coral Microatolls and Their Role as Fixed Biological Indicators of Holocene Sea-Level Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodroffe, C. D.; Smithers, S. G.; McGregor, H. V.

2008-12-01

over longer time scales. We discuss the potential to reconstruct extended records of sea-level change by using geochemical signatures preserved within microatoll skeletons to improve cross-correlations between colonies, and assess the precision with which sea level can be inferred.

Anatomy of the Dead Sea transform: Does it reflect continuous changes in plate motion?

USGS Publications Warehouse

ten Brink, Uri S.; Rybakov, M.; Al-Zoubi, A. S.; Hassouneh, M.; Frieslander, U.; Batayneh, A.T.; Goldschmidt, V.; Daoud, M.N.; Rotstein, Y.; Hall, J.K.

1999-01-01

A new gravity map of the southern half of the Dead Sea transform offers the first regional view of the anatomy of this plate boundary. Interpreted together with auxiliary seismic and well data, the map reveals a string of subsurface basins of widely varying size, shape, and depth along the plate boundary and relatively short (25-55 km) and discontinuous fault segments. We argue that this structure is a result of continuous small changes in relative plate motion. However, several segments must have ruptured simultaneously to produce the inferred maximum magnitude of historical earthquakes.

Causal inference in economics and marketing.

PubMed

Varian, Hal R

2016-07-05

This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

Cuvier's Beaked Whale, Ziphius cavirostris, Distribution and Occurrence in the Mediterranean Sea: High-Use Areas and Conservation Threats.

PubMed

Podestà, M; Azzellino, A; Cañadas, A; Frantzis, A; Moulins, A; Rosso, M; Tepsich, P; Lanfredi, C

Cuvier's beaked whale (Ziphius cavirostris G. Cuvier, 1823) is the only beaked whale species commonly found in the Mediterranean Sea. Until recently, species presence in this area was only inferred from stranding events. Dedicated cetacean surveys have increased our knowledge of the distribution of Cuvier's beaked whales, even though many areas still remain unexplored. Here, we present an updated analysis of available sighting and stranding data, focusing on the atypical mass strandings that have occurred in the Mediterranean Sea since 1963. We describe in detail the five more recent events (2006-14), highlighting their relationship with naval exercises that used mid-frequency active sonar. The distribution of the species is apparently characterized by areas of high density where animals seem to be relatively abundant, including the Alborán Sea, Ligurian Sea, Central Tyrrhenian Sea, southern Adriatic Sea and the Hellenic Trench, but other such areas may exist where little or no survey work has been conducted. Population size has been estimated for the Alborán and Ligurian seas. Habitat modelling studies for those areas, confirmed the species preference for the continental slope and its particular association with submarine canyons, as has also been found to be the case in other areas of the world. The application of results from habitat modelling to areas different from their calibration sites is proposed as a management tool for minimizing the potential impacts of human activities at sea. Military sonar is known worldwide as a threat for this species and is suggested to be a major threat for Cuvier's beaked whale in the Mediterranean Sea. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crustal structure along the DESERT 2000 Transect inferred from 3-D gravity modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Kelani, R.; Goetze, H.; Rybakov, M.; Hassouneh, M.; Schmidt, S.

2003-12-01

A three-dimensional interpretation of the newly compiled Bouguer anomaly map is part of the DESERT 2000 Transect. That is multi-disciplinary and multinational project studying for first time the Dead Sea Transform (DST) fault system (DST) from the Mediterranean Sea to Saudi Arabia across the international border in the NW-SE direction. The negative Bouguer anomalies (with magnitude reached "C130 mGal), located into transform valley, are caused by the internal sedimentary basins filled by the light density young sediments (­Y10 km). A high-resolution 3-D model constrained with the seismic results reveals a possible crustal thickness and density distribution beneath the DST valley. The inferred zone of intrusion coincides with the maximum gravity anomaly over the eastern flank of the DST. The intrusion is displaced at different sectors along the NW-SE direction. The zone of the maximum crustal thinning (­30 km) is attained in the western sector at the Mediterranean. The southeastern plateau, on the other hand, shows by far the largest crustal thickness in the region (38-42 km). Linked to the left lateral movement of ~ 105 km at the boundary between the African and Arabian plate, and constrained with the DESERT 2000 seismic data, a small asymmetric topography of the Moho beneath the DST was modelled. The thickness and density of the crust suggest that a continental crust underlies the DST. The deep basins, the relatively large nature of the intrusion and the asymmetric topography of the Moho lead to the conclusion that a small-scale asthenospheric upwelling(?) might be responsible for the thinning of the crust and subsequent rifting of the Dead Sea graben during the left lateral movement.

Genetic signature of Last Glacial Maximum regional refugia in a circum-Antarctic sea spider

PubMed Central

Soler-Membrives, Anna; Linse, Katrin; Miller, Karen J.

2017-01-01

The evolutionary history of Antarctic organisms is becoming increasingly important to understand and manage population trajectories under rapid environmental change. The Antarctic sea spider Nymphon australe, with an apparently large population size compared with other sea spider species, is an ideal target to look for molecular signatures of past climatic events. We analysed mitochondrial DNA of specimens collected from the Antarctic continent and two Antarctic islands (AI) to infer past population processes and understand current genetic structure. Demographic history analyses suggest populations survived in refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum. The high genetic diversity found in the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctic (EA) seems related to multiple demographic contraction–expansion events associated with deep-sea refugia, while the low genetic diversity in the Weddell Sea points to a more recent expansion from a shelf refugium. We suggest the genetic structure of N. australe from AI reflects recent colonization from the continent. At a local level, EA populations reveal generally low genetic differentiation, geographically and bathymetrically, suggesting limited restrictions to dispersal. Results highlight regional differences in demographic histories and how these relate to the variation in intensity of glaciation–deglaciation events around Antarctica, critical for the study of local evolutionary processes. These are valuable data for understanding the remarkable success of Antarctic pycnogonids, and how environmental changes have shaped the evolution and diversification of Southern Ocean benthic biodiversity. PMID:29134072

Genetic signature of Last Glacial Maximum regional refugia in a circum-Antarctic sea spider

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soler-Membrives, Anna; Linse, Katrin; Miller, Karen J.; Arango, Claudia P.

2017-10-01

The evolutionary history of Antarctic organisms is becoming increasingly important to understand and manage population trajectories under rapid environmental change. The Antarctic sea spider Nymphon australe, with an apparently large population size compared with other sea spider species, is an ideal target to look for molecular signatures of past climatic events. We analysed mitochondrial DNA of specimens collected from the Antarctic continent and two Antarctic islands (AI) to infer past population processes and understand current genetic structure. Demographic history analyses suggest populations survived in refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum. The high genetic diversity found in the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctic (EA) seems related to multiple demographic contraction-expansion events associated with deep-sea refugia, while the low genetic diversity in the Weddell Sea points to a more recent expansion from a shelf refugium. We suggest the genetic structure of N. australe from AI reflects recent colonization from the continent. At a local level, EA populations reveal generally low genetic differentiation, geographically and bathymetrically, suggesting limited restrictions to dispersal. Results highlight regional differences in demographic histories and how these relate to the variation in intensity of glaciation-deglaciation events around Antarctica, critical for the study of local evolutionary processes. These are valuable data for understanding the remarkable success of Antarctic pycnogonids, and how environmental changes have shaped the evolution and diversification of Southern Ocean benthic biodiversity.

Sea Level Driven Marsh Expansion in a Coupled Model of Marsh Erosion, Forest Retreat, and Human Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirwan, M. L.; Walters, D. C.; Reay, W.; Carr, J.

2016-12-01

Salt marsh ecosystem services depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here, we present a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands, and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how connectivity between adjacent ecosystems influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that ecogeomorphic feedbacks tend to stabilize soil elevations relative to sea level rise so that changes in marsh size are determined mostly by the competition between ecological transitions at the upland boundary, and physical erosion at the seaward boundary. Salt marsh loss and natural flood protection is nearly inevitable under rapid sea level rise rates where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit marsh migration into uplands. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. Together, this behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise, and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention. Analysis of 19th century maps and modern photographs from the Chesapeake Bay region confirm that migration rates are more sensitive to sea level rise than erosion rate, and indicate that transgression has thus far allowed marshes to survive the fastest rates of relative sea level rise on the Atlantic Coast. This work suggests that the flux of organisms and sediment across adjacent ecosystems leads to an increase in system resilience that could not be inferred from studies that consider individual components of landscape change.

Aftereffects of Subduction-Zone Earthquakes: Potential Tsunami Hazards along the Japan Sea Coast.

PubMed

Minoura, Koji; Sugawara, Daisuke; Yamanoi, Tohru; Yamada, Tsutomu

2015-10-01

The 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake is a typical subduction-zone earthquake and is the 4th largest earthquake after the beginning of instrumental observation of earthquakes in the 19th century. In fact, the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake displaced the northeast Japan island arc horizontally and vertically. The displacement largely changed the tectonic situation of the arc from compressive to tensile. The 9th century in Japan was a period of natural hazards caused by frequent large-scale earthquakes. The aseismic tsunamis that inflicted damage on the Japan Sea coast in the 11th century were related to the occurrence of massive earthquakes that represented the final stage of a period of high seismic activity. Anti-compressive tectonics triggered by the subduction-zone earthquakes induced gravitational instability, which resulted in the generation of tsunamis caused by slope failing at the arc-back-arc boundary. The crustal displacement after the 2011 earthquake infers an increased risk of unexpected local tsunami flooding in the Japan Sea coastal areas.

Alburnoides manyasensis (Actinopterygii, Cyprinidae), a new species of cyprinid fish from Manyas Lake basin, Turkey

PubMed Central

Turan, Davut; Ekmekçi, F. Güler; Kaya, Cüneyt; Güçlü, S. Serkan

2013-01-01

Abstract Alburnoides manyasensis, sp. n., is described from the Koca Stream (Lake Manyas drainage, Marmara Sea basin) in Anatolia. It is distinguished from all species of Alburnoides in Turkey and adjacent regions, Alburnoides tzanevi (Rezovska [Rezve], Istranca and Terkos streams in the western Black Sea drainage), Alburnoides cf. smyrnae (Banaz Stream, a drainage of Büyük Menderes River, Aegean Sea basin), Alburnoides fasciatus (streams and rivers in the eastern Black Sea drainage) and Alburnoides eichwaldii (Kura and Aras rivers [a drainage of Kura River], Caspian Sea basin) by a combination of the following characters (none unique to the species):marked hump at nape, especially in specimens larger than 60 mm SL; partly developed ventral keel between pelvic fin and anal fin, scaleless 1/2 to 2/3 its length; body depth at dorsal-fin origin 29−32% SL; caudal peduncle depth 11−12% SL; 45–52+ 2–3 lateral-line scales; 9–12 scale rows between lateral line and dorsal-fin origin; 4–5 scale rows between lateral line and anal-fin origin, 10½–12½ branched anal-fin rays; 40–42 total vertebrae. PMID:23794819

Making inference from wildlife collision data: inferring predator absence from prey strikes

PubMed Central

Hosack, Geoffrey R.; Barry, Simon C.

2017-01-01

Wildlife collision data are ubiquitous, though challenging for making ecological inference due to typically irreducible uncertainty relating to the sampling process. We illustrate a new approach that is useful for generating inference from predator data arising from wildlife collisions. By simply conditioning on a second prey species sampled via the same collision process, and by using a biologically realistic numerical response functions, we can produce a coherent numerical response relationship between predator and prey. This relationship can then be used to make inference on the population size of the predator species, including the probability of extinction. The statistical conditioning enables us to account for unmeasured variation in factors influencing the runway strike incidence for individual airports and to enable valid comparisons. A practical application of the approach for testing hypotheses about the distribution and abundance of a predator species is illustrated using the hypothesized red fox incursion into Tasmania, Australia. We estimate that conditional on the numerical response between fox and lagomorph runway strikes on mainland Australia, the predictive probability of observing no runway strikes of foxes in Tasmania after observing 15 lagomorph strikes is 0.001. We conclude there is enough evidence to safely reject the null hypothesis that there is a widespread red fox population in Tasmania at a population density consistent with prey availability. The method is novel and has potential wider application. PMID:28243534

Causal inference in biology networks with integrated belief propagation.

PubMed

Chang, Rui; Karr, Jonathan R; Schadt, Eric E

2015-01-01

Inferring causal relationships among molecular and higher order phenotypes is a critical step in elucidating the complexity of living systems. Here we propose a novel method for inferring causality that is no longer constrained by the conditional dependency arguments that limit the ability of statistical causal inference methods to resolve causal relationships within sets of graphical models that are Markov equivalent. Our method utilizes Bayesian belief propagation to infer the responses of perturbation events on molecular traits given a hypothesized graph structure. A distance measure between the inferred response distribution and the observed data is defined to assess the 'fitness' of the hypothesized causal relationships. To test our algorithm, we infer causal relationships within equivalence classes of gene networks in which the form of the functional interactions that are possible are assumed to be nonlinear, given synthetic microarray and RNA sequencing data. We also apply our method to infer causality in real metabolic network with v-structure and feedback loop. We show that our method can recapitulate the causal structure and recover the feedback loop only from steady-state data which conventional method cannot.

Wisdom of crowds for robust gene network inference

PubMed Central

Marbach, Daniel; Costello, James C.; Küffner, Robert; Vega, Nicci; Prill, Robert J.; Camacho, Diogo M.; Allison, Kyle R.; Kellis, Manolis; Collins, James J.; Stolovitzky, Gustavo

2012-01-01

Reconstructing gene regulatory networks from high-throughput data is a long-standing problem. Through the DREAM project (Dialogue on Reverse Engineering Assessment and Methods), we performed a comprehensive blind assessment of over thirty network inference methods on Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and in silico microarray data. We characterize performance, data requirements, and inherent biases of different inference approaches offering guidelines for both algorithm application and development. We observe that no single inference method performs optimally across all datasets. In contrast, integration of predictions from multiple inference methods shows robust and high performance across diverse datasets. Thereby, we construct high-confidence networks for E. coli and S. aureus, each comprising ~1700 transcriptional interactions at an estimated precision of 50%. We experimentally test 53 novel interactions in E. coli, of which 23 were supported (43%). Our results establish community-based methods as a powerful and robust tool for the inference of transcriptional gene regulatory networks. PMID:22796662

Experimental evidence for circular inference in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Jardri, Renaud; Duverne, Sandrine; Litvinova, Alexandra S; Denève, Sophie

2017-01-31

Schizophrenia (SCZ) is a complex mental disorder that may result in some combination of hallucinations, delusions and disorganized thinking. Here SCZ patients and healthy controls (CTLs) report their level of confidence on a forced-choice task that manipulated the strength of sensory evidence and prior information. Neither group's responses can be explained by simple Bayesian inference. Rather, individual responses are best captured by a model with different degrees of circular inference. Circular inference refers to a corruption of sensory data by prior information and vice versa, leading us to 'see what we expect' (through descending loops), to 'expect what we see' (through ascending loops) or both. Ascending loops are stronger for SCZ than CTLs and correlate with the severity of positive symptoms. Descending loops correlate with the severity of negative symptoms. Both loops correlate with disorganized symptoms. The findings suggest that circular inference might mediate the clinical manifestations of SCZ.

Experimental evidence for circular inference in schizophrenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jardri, Renaud; Duverne, Sandrine; Litvinova, Alexandra S.; Denève, Sophie

2017-01-01

Schizophrenia (SCZ) is a complex mental disorder that may result in some combination of hallucinations, delusions and disorganized thinking. Here SCZ patients and healthy controls (CTLs) report their level of confidence on a forced-choice task that manipulated the strength of sensory evidence and prior information. Neither group's responses can be explained by simple Bayesian inference. Rather, individual responses are best captured by a model with different degrees of circular inference. Circular inference refers to a corruption of sensory data by prior information and vice versa, leading us to `see what we expect' (through descending loops), to `expect what we see' (through ascending loops) or both. Ascending loops are stronger for SCZ than CTLs and correlate with the severity of positive symptoms. Descending loops correlate with the severity of negative symptoms. Both loops correlate with disorganized symptoms. The findings suggest that circular inference might mediate the clinical manifestations of SCZ.

Wind-sea surface temperature-sea ice relationship in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas during autumn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jing; Stegall, Steve T.; Zhang, Xiangdong

2018-03-01

Dramatic climate changes, especially the largest sea ice retreat during September and October, in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas could be a consequence of, and further enhance, complex air-ice-sea interactions. To detect these interaction signals, statistical relationships between surface wind speed, sea surface temperature (SST), and sea ice concentration (SIC) were analyzed. The results show a negative correlation between wind speed and SIC. The relationships between wind speed and SST are complicated by the presence of sea ice, with a negative correlation over open water but a positive correlation in sea ice dominated areas. The examination of spatial structures indicates that wind speed tends to increase when approaching the ice edge from open water and the area fully covered by sea ice. The anomalous downward radiation and thermal advection, as well as their regional distribution, play important roles in shaping these relationships, though wind-driven sub-grid scale boundary layer processes may also have contributions. Considering the feedback loop involved in the wind-SST-SIC relationships, climate model experiments would be required to further untangle the underlying complex physical processes.

Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference

PubMed Central

Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme. PMID:27018908

Causal inference in economics and marketing

PubMed Central

Varian, Hal R.

2016-01-01

This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual—a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference. PMID:27382144

50 CFR 697.12 - At-sea sea sampler/observer coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 13 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false At-sea sea sampler/observer coverage. 697... MANAGEMENT General Provisions § 697.12 At-sea sea sampler/observer coverage. (a) The Regional Administrator...-approved sea sampler/observer. If requested by the Regional Administrator to carry a sea sampler/observer...

50 CFR 697.12 - At-sea sea sampler/observer coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 13 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false At-sea sea sampler/observer coverage. 697... MANAGEMENT General Provisions § 697.12 At-sea sea sampler/observer coverage. (a) The Regional Administrator...-approved sea sampler/observer. If requested by the Regional Administrator to carry a sea sampler/observer...

50 CFR 697.12 - At-sea sea sampler/observer coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 13 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false At-sea sea sampler/observer coverage. 697... MANAGEMENT General Provisions § 697.12 At-sea sea sampler/observer coverage. (a) The Regional Administrator...-approved sea sampler/observer. If requested by the Regional Administrator to carry a sea sampler/observer...

Sea-Level Projections from the SeaRISE Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert