Effective return, risk aversion and drawdowns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dacorogna, Michel M.; Gençay, Ramazan; Müller, Ulrich A.; Pictet, Olivier V.

2001-01-01

We derive two risk-adjusted performance measures for investors with risk averse preferences. Maximizing these measures is equivalent to maximizing the expected utility of an investor. The first measure, Xeff, is derived assuming a constant risk aversion while the second measure, Reff, is based on a stronger risk aversion to clustering of losses than of gains. The clustering of returns is captured through a multi-horizon framework. The empirical properties of Xeff, Reff are studied within the context of real-time trading models for foreign exchange rates and their properties are compared to those of more traditional measures like the annualized return, the Sharpe Ratio and the maximum drawdown. Our measures are shown to be more robust against clustering of losses and have the ability to fully characterize the dynamic behaviour of investment strategies.

Locating Sensors for Detecting Source-to-Target Patterns of Special Nuclear Material Smuggling: A Spatial Information Theoretic Approach

PubMed Central

Przybyla, Jay; Taylor, Jeffrey; Zhou, Xuesong

2010-01-01

In this paper, a spatial information-theoretic model is proposed to locate sensors for detecting source-to-target patterns of special nuclear material (SNM) smuggling. In order to ship the nuclear materials from a source location with SNM production to a target city, the smugglers must employ global and domestic logistics systems. This paper focuses on locating a limited set of fixed and mobile radiation sensors in a transportation network, with the intent to maximize the expected information gain and minimize the estimation error for the subsequent nuclear material detection stage. A Kalman filtering-based framework is adapted to assist the decision-maker in quantifying the network-wide information gain and SNM flow estimation accuracy. PMID:22163641

Locating sensors for detecting source-to-target patterns of special nuclear material smuggling: a spatial information theoretic approach.

PubMed

Przybyla, Jay; Taylor, Jeffrey; Zhou, Xuesong

2010-01-01

In this paper, a spatial information-theoretic model is proposed to locate sensors for detecting source-to-target patterns of special nuclear material (SNM) smuggling. In order to ship the nuclear materials from a source location with SNM production to a target city, the smugglers must employ global and domestic logistics systems. This paper focuses on locating a limited set of fixed and mobile radiation sensors in a transportation network, with the intent to maximize the expected information gain and minimize the estimation error for the subsequent nuclear material detection stage. A Kalman filtering-based framework is adapted to assist the decision-maker in quantifying the network-wide information gain and SNM flow estimation accuracy.

Ultimate open pit stochastic optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcotte, Denis; Caron, Josiane

2013-02-01

Classical open pit optimization (maximum closure problem) is made on block estimates, without directly considering the block grades uncertainty. We propose an alternative approach of stochastic optimization. The stochastic optimization is taken as the optimal pit computed on the block expected profits, rather than expected grades, computed from a series of conditional simulations. The stochastic optimization generates, by construction, larger ore and waste tonnages than the classical optimization. Contrary to the classical approach, the stochastic optimization is conditionally unbiased for the realized profit given the predicted profit. A series of simulated deposits with different variograms are used to compare the stochastic approach, the classical approach and the simulated approach that maximizes expected profit among simulated designs. Profits obtained with the stochastic optimization are generally larger than the classical or simulated pit. The main factor controlling the relative gain of stochastic optimization compared to classical approach and simulated pit is shown to be the information level as measured by the boreholes spacing/range ratio. The relative gains of the stochastic approach over the classical approach increase with the treatment costs but decrease with mining costs. The relative gains of the stochastic approach over the simulated pit approach increase both with the treatment and mining costs. At early stages of an open pit project, when uncertainty is large, the stochastic optimization approach appears preferable to the classical approach or the simulated pit approach for fair comparison of the values of alternative projects and for the initial design and planning of the open pit.

Retail food environments in Canada: Maximizing the impact of research, policy and practice.

PubMed

Minaker, Leia M

2016-06-09

Retail food environments are gaining national and international attention as important determinants of population dietary intake. Communities across Canada are beginning to discuss and implement programs and policies to create supportive retail food environments. Three considerations should drive the selection of food environment assessment methods: relevance (What is the problem, and how is it related to dietary outcomes?); resources (What human, time and financial resources are required to undertake an assessment?); and response (How will policy-makers find meaning out of and act on the information gained through the food environment assessment?). Ultimately, food environment assessments should be conducted in the context of stakeholder buy-in and multi-sectoral partnerships, since food environment solutions require multi-sectoral action. Partnerships between public health actors and the food and beverage industry can be challenging, especially when mandates are not aligned. Clarifying the motivations, expectations and roles of all stakeholders takes time but is important if the impact of food environment research, policy and practice is to be maximized. The articles contained in this special supplementary issue describe ongoing food environments research across Canada and fill some of the important gaps in the current body of Canadian food environments literature.

Resistance to extreme strategies, rather than prosocial preferences, can explain human cooperation in public goods games.

PubMed

Kümmerli, Rolf; Burton-Chellew, Maxwell N; Ross-Gillespie, Adin; West, Stuart A

2010-06-01

The results of numerous economic games suggest that humans behave more cooperatively than would be expected if they were maximizing selfish interests. It has been argued that this is because individuals gain satisfaction from the success of others, and that such prosocial preferences require a novel evolutionary explanation. However, in previous games, imperfect behavior would automatically lead to an increase in cooperation, making it impossible to decouple any form of mistake or error from prosocial cooperative decisions. Here we empirically test between these alternatives by decoupling imperfect behavior from prosocial preferences in modified versions of the public goods game, in which individuals would maximize their selfish gain by completely (100%) cooperating. We found that, although this led to higher levels of cooperation, it did not lead to full cooperation, and individuals still perceived their group mates as competitors. This is inconsistent with either selfish or prosocial preferences, suggesting that the most parsimonious explanation is imperfect behavior triggered by psychological drives that can prevent both complete defection and complete cooperation. More generally, our results illustrate the caution that must be exercised when interpreting the evolutionary implications of economic experiments, especially the absolute level of cooperation in a particular treatment.

Insurance choice and tax-preferred health savings accounts.

PubMed

Cardon, James H; Showalter, Mark H

2007-03-01

We develop an infinite horizon utility maximization model of the interaction between insurance choice and tax-preferred health savings accounts. The model can be used to examine a wide range of policy options, including flexible spending accounts, health savings accounts, and health reimbursement accounts. We also develop a 2-period model to simulate various implications of the model. Key results from the simulation analysis include the following: (1) with no adverse selection, use of unrestricted health savings accounts leads to modest welfare gains, after accounting for the tax revenue loss; (2) with adverse selection and an initial pooling equilibrium comprised of "sick" and "healthy" consumers, introducing HSAs can, but does not necessarily, lead to a new pooling equilibrium. The new equilibrium results in a higher coinsurance rate, an increase in expected utility for healthy consumers, and a decrease in expected utility for sick consumers; (3) with adverse selection and a separating equilibrium, both sick and healthy consumers are better off with a health savings account; (4) efficiency gains are possible when insurance contracts are explicitly linked to tax-preferred health savings accounts.

Optimal flight initiation distance.

PubMed

Cooper, William E; Frederick, William G

2007-01-07

Decisions regarding flight initiation distance have received scant theoretical attention. A graphical model by Ydenberg and Dill (1986. The economics of fleeing from predators. Adv. Stud. Behav. 16, 229-249) that has guided research for the past 20 years specifies when escape begins. In the model, a prey detects a predator, monitors its approach until costs of escape and of remaining are equal, and then flees. The distance between predator and prey when escape is initiated (approach distance = flight initiation distance) occurs where decreasing cost of remaining and increasing cost of fleeing intersect. We argue that prey fleeing as predicted cannot maximize fitness because the best prey can do is break even during an encounter. We develop two optimality models, one applying when all expected future contribution to fitness (residual reproductive value) is lost if the prey dies, the other when any fitness gained (increase in expected RRV) during the encounter is retained after death. Both models predict optimal flight initiation distance from initial expected fitness, benefits obtainable during encounters, costs of escaping, and probability of being killed. Predictions match extensively verified predictions of Ydenberg and Dill's (1986) model. Our main conclusion is that optimality models are preferable to break-even models because they permit fitness maximization, offer many new testable predictions, and allow assessment of prey decisions in many naturally occurring situations through modification of benefit, escape cost, and risk functions.

Why Contextual Preference Reversals Maximize Expected Value

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Contextual preference reversals occur when a preference for one option over another is reversed by the addition of further options. It has been argued that the occurrence of preference reversals in human behavior shows that people violate the axioms of rational choice and that people are not, therefore, expected value maximizers. In contrast, we demonstrate that if a person is only able to make noisy calculations of expected value and noisy observations of the ordinal relations among option features, then the expected value maximizing choice is influenced by the addition of new options and does give rise to apparent preference reversals. We explore the implications of expected value maximizing choice, conditioned on noisy observations, for a range of contextual preference reversal types—including attraction, compromise, similarity, and phantom effects. These preference reversal types have played a key role in the development of models of human choice. We conclude that experiments demonstrating contextual preference reversals are not evidence for irrationality. They are, however, a consequence of expected value maximization given noisy observations. PMID:27337391

Optimization in the utility maximization framework for conservation planning: a comparison of solution procedures in a study of multifunctional agriculture

PubMed Central

Stoms, David M.; Davis, Frank W.

2014-01-01

Quantitative methods of spatial conservation prioritization have traditionally been applied to issues in conservation biology and reserve design, though their use in other types of natural resource management is growing. The utility maximization problem is one form of a covering problem where multiple criteria can represent the expected social benefits of conservation action. This approach allows flexibility with a problem formulation that is more general than typical reserve design problems, though the solution methods are very similar. However, few studies have addressed optimization in utility maximization problems for conservation planning, and the effect of solution procedure is largely unquantified. Therefore, this study mapped five criteria describing elements of multifunctional agriculture to determine a hypothetical conservation resource allocation plan for agricultural land conservation in the Central Valley of CA, USA. We compared solution procedures within the utility maximization framework to determine the difference between an open source integer programming approach and a greedy heuristic, and find gains from optimization of up to 12%. We also model land availability for conservation action as a stochastic process and determine the decline in total utility compared to the globally optimal set using both solution algorithms. Our results are comparable to other studies illustrating the benefits of optimization for different conservation planning problems, and highlight the importance of maximizing the effectiveness of limited funding for conservation and natural resource management. PMID:25538868

Optimization in the utility maximization framework for conservation planning: a comparison of solution procedures in a study of multifunctional agriculture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kreitler, Jason R.; Stoms, David M.; Davis, Frank W.

2014-01-01

Quantitative methods of spatial conservation prioritization have traditionally been applied to issues in conservation biology and reserve design, though their use in other types of natural resource management is growing. The utility maximization problem is one form of a covering problem where multiple criteria can represent the expected social benefits of conservation action. This approach allows flexibility with a problem formulation that is more general than typical reserve design problems, though the solution methods are very similar. However, few studies have addressed optimization in utility maximization problems for conservation planning, and the effect of solution procedure is largely unquantified. Therefore, this study mapped five criteria describing elements of multifunctional agriculture to determine a hypothetical conservation resource allocation plan for agricultural land conservation in the Central Valley of CA, USA. We compared solution procedures within the utility maximization framework to determine the difference between an open source integer programming approach and a greedy heuristic, and find gains from optimization of up to 12%. We also model land availability for conservation action as a stochastic process and determine the decline in total utility compared to the globally optimal set using both solution algorithms. Our results are comparable to other studies illustrating the benefits of optimization for different conservation planning problems, and highlight the importance of maximizing the effectiveness of limited funding for conservation and natural resource management.

Constrained Fisher Scoring for a Mixture of Factor Analyzers

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

expectation -maximization algorithm with similar computational requirements. Lastly, we demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method for learning a... expectation maximization 44 Gene T Whipps 301 394 2372Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited...14 3.6 Relationship with Expectation -Maximization 16 4. Simulation Examples 16 4.1 Synthetic MFA Example 17 4.2 Manifold Learning Example 22 5

Which Individuals To Choose To Update the Reference Population? Minimizing the Loss of Genetic Diversity in Animal Genomic Selection Programs.

PubMed

Eynard, Sonia E; Croiseau, Pascal; Laloë, Denis; Fritz, Sebastien; Calus, Mario P L; Restoux, Gwendal

2018-01-04

Genomic selection (GS) is commonly used in livestock and increasingly in plant breeding. Relying on phenotypes and genotypes of a reference population, GS allows performance prediction for young individuals having only genotypes. This is expected to achieve fast high genetic gain but with a potential loss of genetic diversity. Existing methods to conserve genetic diversity depend mostly on the choice of the breeding individuals. In this study, we propose a modification of the reference population composition to mitigate diversity loss. Since the high cost of phenotyping is the limiting factor for GS, our findings are of major economic interest. This study aims to answer the following questions: how would decisions on the reference population affect the breeding population, and how to best select individuals to update the reference population and balance maximizing genetic gain and minimizing loss of genetic diversity? We investigated three updating strategies for the reference population: random, truncation, and optimal contribution (OC) strategies. OC maximizes genetic merit for a fixed loss of genetic diversity. A French Montbéliarde dairy cattle population with 50K SNP chip genotypes and simulations over 10 generations were used to compare these different strategies using milk production as the trait of interest. Candidates were selected to update the reference population. Prediction bias and both genetic merit and diversity were measured. Changes in the reference population composition slightly affected the breeding population. Optimal contribution strategy appeared to be an acceptable compromise to maintain both genetic gain and diversity in the reference and the breeding populations. Copyright © 2018 Eynard et al.

Dual conception of risk in the Iowa Gambling Task: effects of sleep deprivation and test-retest gap.

PubMed

Singh, Varsha

2013-01-01

Risk in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is often understood in terms of intertemporal choices, i.e., preference for immediate outcomes in favor of delayed outcomes is considered risky decision making. According to behavioral economics, healthy decision makers are expected to refrain from choosing the short-sighted immediate gain because, over time (10 trials of the IGT), the immediate gains result in a long term loss (net loss). Instead decision makers are expected to maximize their gains by choosing options that, over time (10 trials), result in delayed or long term gains (net gain). However, task choices are sometimes made on the basis of the frequency of reward and punishment such that frequent rewards/infrequent punishments are favored over infrequent rewards/frequent punishments. The presence of these two attributes (intertemporality and frequency of reward) in IGT decision making may correspond to the emotion-cognition dichotomy and reflect a dual conception of risk. Decision making on the basis of the two attributes was tested under two conditions: delay in retest and sleep deprivation. An interaction between sleep deprivation and time delay was expected to attenuate the difference between the two attributes. Participants were 40 male university students. Analysis of the effects of IGT attribute type (intertemporal vs. frequency of reinforcement), sleep deprivation (sleep deprivation vs. no sleep deprivation), and test-retest gap (short vs. long delay) showed a significant within-subjects effect of IGT attribute type thus confirming the difference between the two attributes. Sleep deprivation had no effect on the attributes, but test-retest gap and the three-way interaction between attribute type, test-retest gap, and sleep deprivation were significantly different. Post-hoc tests revealed that sleep deprivation and short test-retest gap attenuated the difference between the two attributes. Furthermore, the results showed an expected trend of increase in intertemporal decision making at retest suggesting that intertemporal decision making benefited from repeated task exposure. The present findings add to understanding of the emotion-cognition dichotomy. Further, they show an important time-dependent effect of a universally experienced constraint (sleep deprivation) on decision making. It is concluded that risky decision making in the IGT is contingent on the attribute under consideration and is affected by factors such as time elapsed and constraint experienced before the retest.

Divergence and Convergence of Risky Decision Making Across Prospective Gains and Losses: Preferences and Strategies

PubMed Central

Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A.; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A.

2015-01-01

People choose differently when facing potential gains than when facing potential losses. Clear gross differences in decision making between gains and losses have been empirically demonstrated in numerous studies (e.g., framing effect, risk preference, loss aversion). However, theories maintain that there are strong underlying connections (e.g., reflection effect). We investigated the relationship between gains and losses decision making, examining risk preferences, and choice strategies (the reliance on option information) using a monetary gamble task with interleaved trials. For risk preferences, participants were on average risk averse in the gains domain and risk neutral/seeking in the losses domain. We specifically tested for a theoretically hypothesized correlation between individual risk preferences across the gains and losses domains (the reflection effect), but found no significant relationship in the predicted direction. Interestingly, despite the lack of reflected risk preferences, cross-domain risk preferences were still informative of individual choice behavior. For choice strategies, in both domains participants relied more heavily on the maximizing strategy than the satisficing strategy, with increased reliance on the maximizing strategy in the losses domain. Additionally, while there is no mathematical reliance between the risk preference and strategy metrics, within both domains there were significant relationships between risk preferences and strategies—the more participants relied upon the maximizing strategy the more risk neutral they were (equating value and utility maximization). These results demonstrate the complexity of gains and losses decision making, indicating the apparent contradiction that their underlying cognitive/neural processes are both dissociable and overlapping. PMID:26733779

Divergence and Convergence of Risky Decision Making Across Prospective Gains and Losses: Preferences and Strategies.

PubMed

Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A

2015-01-01

People choose differently when facing potential gains than when facing potential losses. Clear gross differences in decision making between gains and losses have been empirically demonstrated in numerous studies (e.g., framing effect, risk preference, loss aversion). However, theories maintain that there are strong underlying connections (e.g., reflection effect). We investigated the relationship between gains and losses decision making, examining risk preferences, and choice strategies (the reliance on option information) using a monetary gamble task with interleaved trials. For risk preferences, participants were on average risk averse in the gains domain and risk neutral/seeking in the losses domain. We specifically tested for a theoretically hypothesized correlation between individual risk preferences across the gains and losses domains (the reflection effect), but found no significant relationship in the predicted direction. Interestingly, despite the lack of reflected risk preferences, cross-domain risk preferences were still informative of individual choice behavior. For choice strategies, in both domains participants relied more heavily on the maximizing strategy than the satisficing strategy, with increased reliance on the maximizing strategy in the losses domain. Additionally, while there is no mathematical reliance between the risk preference and strategy metrics, within both domains there were significant relationships between risk preferences and strategies-the more participants relied upon the maximizing strategy the more risk neutral they were (equating value and utility maximization). These results demonstrate the complexity of gains and losses decision making, indicating the apparent contradiction that their underlying cognitive/neural processes are both dissociable and overlapping.

Improving deep convolutional neural networks with mixed maxout units.

PubMed

Zhao, Hui-Zhen; Liu, Fu-Xian; Li, Long-Yue

2017-01-01

Motivated by insights from the maxout-units-based deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) that "non-maximal features are unable to deliver" and "feature mapping subspace pooling is insufficient," we present a novel mixed variant of the recently introduced maxout unit called a mixout unit. Specifically, we do so by calculating the exponential probabilities of feature mappings gained by applying different convolutional transformations over the same input and then calculating the expected values according to their exponential probabilities. Moreover, we introduce the Bernoulli distribution to balance the maximum values with the expected values of the feature mappings subspace. Finally, we design a simple model to verify the pooling ability of mixout units and a Mixout-units-based Network-in-Network (NiN) model to analyze the feature learning ability of the mixout models. We argue that our proposed units improve the pooling ability and that mixout models can achieve better feature learning and classification performance.

Autonomous entropy-based intelligent experimental design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malakar, Nabin Kumar

2011-07-01

The aim of this thesis is to explore the application of probability and information theory in experimental design, and to do so in a way that combines what we know about inference and inquiry in a comprehensive and consistent manner. Present day scientific frontiers involve data collection at an ever-increasing rate. This requires that we find a way to collect the most relevant data in an automated fashion. By following the logic of the scientific method, we couple an inference engine with an inquiry engine to automate the iterative process of scientific learning. The inference engine involves Bayesian machine learning techniques to estimate model parameters based upon both prior information and previously collected data, while the inquiry engine implements data-driven exploration. By choosing an experiment whose distribution of expected results has the maximum entropy, the inquiry engine selects the experiment that maximizes the expected information gain. The coupled inference and inquiry engines constitute an autonomous learning method for scientific exploration. We apply it to a robotic arm to demonstrate the efficacy of the method. Optimizing inquiry involves searching for an experiment that promises, on average, to be maximally informative. If the set of potential experiments is described by many parameters, the search involves a high-dimensional entropy space. In such cases, a brute force search method will be slow and computationally expensive. We develop an entropy-based search algorithm, called nested entropy sampling, to select the most informative experiment. This helps to reduce the number of computations necessary to find the optimal experiment. We also extended the method of maximizing entropy, and developed a method of maximizing joint entropy so that it could be used as a principle of collaboration between two robots. This is a major achievement of this thesis, as it allows the information-based collaboration between two robotic units towards a same goal in an automated fashion.

Bureaucracy, institutional theory and institutionaucracy: applications to the hospital industry.

PubMed

Bolon, D S

1998-01-01

The health care industry is experiencing rapid change and uncertainty. Hospitals, in particular, are redesigning structures and processes in order to maximize efficiencies and remain economically viable. This article uses two organizational theory perspectives (bureaucracy and institutional theory) to examine many of the trends and transitions which are occurring throughout the hospital industry. It suggests that many of the key tenets of bureaucracy (rationality, efficiency, productivity, control, etc.) have been incorporated into the institutional environment as normative expectations. This synthesis or blending of these two perspectives is labeled institutionaucracy, implying that, as productivity and efficiency considerations become institutionalized, hospitals conforming to such operational standards will gain legitimacy and additional resources from their environment.

Orbital Evasive Target Tracking and Sensor Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-30

maximize the total information gain in the observer-to-target assignment. We compare the information based approach to the game theoretic criterion where...tracking with multiple space borne observers. The results indicate that the game theoretic approach is more effective than the information based approach in...sensor management is to maximize the total information gain in the observer-to-target assignment. We compare the information based approach to the game

Undulatory physical resistance training program increases maximal strength in elderly type 2 diabetics.

PubMed

Santos, Gilberto Monteiro dos; Montrezol, Fábio Tanil; Pauli, Luciana Santos Souza; Sartori-Cintra, Angélica Rossi; Colantonio, Emilson; Gomes, Ricardo José; Marinho, Rodolfo; Moura, Leandro Pereira de; Pauli, José Rodrigo

2014-01-01

To investigate the effects of a specific protocol of undulatory physical resistance training on maximal strength gains in elderly type 2 diabetics. The study included 48 subjects, aged between 60 and 85 years, of both genders. They were divided into two groups: Untrained Diabetic Elderly (n=19) with those who were not subjected to physical training and Trained Diabetic Elderly (n=29), with those who were subjected to undulatory physical resistance training. The participants were evaluated with several types of resistance training's equipment before and after training protocol, by test of one maximal repetition. The subjects were trained on undulatory resistance three times per week for a period of 16 weeks. The overload used in undulatory resistance training was equivalent to 50% of one maximal repetition and 70% of one maximal repetition, alternating weekly. Statistical analysis revealed significant differences (p<0.05) between pre-test and post-test over a period of 16 weeks. The average gains in strength were 43.20% (knee extension), 65.00% (knee flexion), 27.80% (supine sitting machine), 31.00% (rowing sitting), 43.90% (biceps pulley), and 21.10% (triceps pulley). Undulatory resistance training used with weekly different overloads was effective to provide significant gains in maximum strength in elderly type 2 diabetic individuals.

Undulatory physical resistance training program increases maximal strength in elderly type 2 diabetics

PubMed Central

dos Santos, Gilberto Monteiro; Montrezol, Fábio Tanil; Pauli, Luciana Santos Souza; Sartori-Cintra, Angélica Rossi; Colantonio, Emilson; Gomes, Ricardo José; Marinho, Rodolfo; de Moura, Leandro Pereira; Pauli, José Rodrigo

2014-01-01

Objective To investigate the effects of a specific protocol of undulatory physical resistance training on maximal strength gains in elderly type 2 diabetics. Methods The study included 48 subjects, aged between 60 and 85 years, of both genders. They were divided into two groups: Untrained Diabetic Elderly (n=19) with those who were not subjected to physical training and Trained Diabetic Elderly (n=29), with those who were subjected to undulatory physical resistance training. The participants were evaluated with several types of resistance training’s equipment before and after training protocol, by test of one maximal repetition. The subjects were trained on undulatory resistance three times per week for a period of 16 weeks. The overload used in undulatory resistance training was equivalent to 50% of one maximal repetition and 70% of one maximal repetition, alternating weekly. Statistical analysis revealed significant differences (p<0.05) between pre-test and post-test over a period of 16 weeks. Results The average gains in strength were 43.20% (knee extension), 65.00% (knee flexion), 27.80% (supine sitting machine), 31.00% (rowing sitting), 43.90% (biceps pulley), and 21.10% (triceps pulley). Conclusion Undulatory resistance training used with weekly different overloads was effective to provide significant gains in maximum strength in elderly type 2 diabetic individuals. PMID:25628192

Framing matters: Effects of framing on older adults’ exploratory decision-making

PubMed Central

Cooper, Jessica A.; Blanco, Nathaniel; Maddox, W. Todd

2016-01-01

We examined framing effects on exploratory decision-making. In Experiment 1 we tested older and younger adults in two decision-making tasks separated by one week, finding that older adults’ decision-making performance was preserved when maximizing gains, but declined when minimizing losses. Computational modeling indicates that younger adults in both conditions, and older adults in gains-maximization, utilized a decreasing threshold strategy (which is optimal), but older adults in losses were better fit by a fixed-probability model of exploration. In Experiment 2 we examined within-subjects behavior in older and younger adults in the same exploratory decision-making task, but without a time separation between tasks. We replicated the older adult disadvantage in loss-minimization from Experiment 1, and found that the older adult deficit was significantly reduced when the loss-minimization task immediately followed the gains-maximization task. We conclude that older adults’ performance in exploratory decision-making is hindered when framed as loss-minimization, but that this deficit is attenuated when older adults can first develop a strategy in a gains-framed task. PMID:27977218

Framing matters: Effects of framing on older adults' exploratory decision-making.

PubMed

Cooper, Jessica A; Blanco, Nathaniel J; Maddox, W Todd

2017-02-01

We examined framing effects on exploratory decision-making. In Experiment 1 we tested older and younger adults in two decision-making tasks separated by one week, finding that older adults' decision-making performance was preserved when maximizing gains, but it declined when minimizing losses. Computational modeling indicates that younger adults in both conditions, and older adults in gains maximization, utilized a decreasing threshold strategy (which is optimal), but older adults in losses were better fit by a fixed-probability model of exploration. In Experiment 2 we examined within-subject behavior in older and younger adults in the same exploratory decision-making task, but without a time separation between tasks. We replicated the older adult disadvantage in loss minimization from Experiment 1 and found that the older adult deficit was significantly reduced when the loss-minimization task immediately followed the gains-maximization task. We conclude that older adults' performance in exploratory decision-making is hindered when framed as loss minimization, but that this deficit is attenuated when older adults can first develop a strategy in a gains-framed task. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Effect of constitutive inactivation of the myostatin gene on the gain in muscle strength during postnatal growth in two murine models.

PubMed

Stantzou, Amalia; Ueberschlag-Pitiot, Vanessa; Thomasson, Remi; Furling, Denis; Bonnieu, Anne; Amthor, Helge; Ferry, Arnaud

2017-02-01

The effect of constitutive inactivation of the gene encoding myostatin on the gain in muscle performance during postnatal growth has not been well characterized. We analyzed 2 murine myostatin knockout (KO) models, (i) the Lee model (KO Lee ) and (ii) the Grobet model (KO Grobet ), and measured the contraction of tibialis anterior muscle in situ. Absolute maximal isometric force was increased in 6-month-old KO Lee and KO Grobet mice, as compared to wild-type mice. Similarly, absolute maximal power was increased in 6-month-old KO Lee mice. In contrast, specific maximal force (relative maximal force per unit of muscle mass was decreased in all 6-month-old male and female KO mice, except in 6-month-old female KO Grobet mice, whereas specific maximal power was reduced only in male KO Lee mice. Genetic inactivation of myostatin increases maximal force and power, but in return it reduces muscle quality, particularly in male mice. Muscle Nerve 55: 254-261, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Association of gestational weight gain expectations with advice on actual weight gain

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To examine pregnant women's gestational weight gain expectations/advice from various sources (i.e., self, family/friends, physician) and the impact of these sources of expectations/advice on actual measured gestational weight gain. Pregnant women (n=230, 87.4% Caucasian, second pregnancy) in a cohor...

Strategic insight and age-related goal-neglect influence risky decision-making.

PubMed

Westbrook, Andrew; Martins, Bruna S; Yarkoni, Tal; Braver, Todd S

2012-01-01

Maximizing long-run gains often requires taking on some degree of risk, yet decision-makers often exhibit risk aversion (RA), rejecting risky prospects even when these have higher expected value (EV) than safer alternatives. We investigated whether explicit strategy instruction and practice can decrease prepotent RA, and whether aging impacts the efficacy of such an intervention. Participants performed a paired lottery task with options varying in risk and magnitude, both before and after practice with a similar task that encouraged maximization of EV and instruction to use this strategy in risky decisions. In both younger and older adults (OAs), strategy training reduced RA. Although RA was age-equivalent at baseline, larger training effects were observed in younger adults (YAs). These effects were not explained by risk-related (i.e., affective) interference effects or computation ability, but were consistent with a progressive, age-related neglect of the strategy across trials. Our findings suggest that strategy training can diminish RA, but that training efficacy is reduced among OAs, potentially due to goal neglect. We discuss implications for neural mechanisms that may distinguish older and YAs' risky decision-making.

Improving deep convolutional neural networks with mixed maxout units

PubMed Central

Liu, Fu-xian; Li, Long-yue

2017-01-01

Motivated by insights from the maxout-units-based deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) that “non-maximal features are unable to deliver” and “feature mapping subspace pooling is insufficient,” we present a novel mixed variant of the recently introduced maxout unit called a mixout unit. Specifically, we do so by calculating the exponential probabilities of feature mappings gained by applying different convolutional transformations over the same input and then calculating the expected values according to their exponential probabilities. Moreover, we introduce the Bernoulli distribution to balance the maximum values with the expected values of the feature mappings subspace. Finally, we design a simple model to verify the pooling ability of mixout units and a Mixout-units-based Network-in-Network (NiN) model to analyze the feature learning ability of the mixout models. We argue that our proposed units improve the pooling ability and that mixout models can achieve better feature learning and classification performance. PMID:28727737

Reliability of high-power QCW arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feeler, Ryan; Junghans, Jeremy; Remley, Jennifer; Schnurbusch, Don; Stephens, Ed

2010-02-01

Northrop Grumman Cutting Edge Optronics has developed a family of arrays for high-power QCW operation. These arrays are built using CTE-matched heat sinks and hard solder in order to maximize the reliability of the devices. A summary of a recent life test is presented in order to quantify the reliability of QCW arrays and associated laser gain modules. A statistical analysis of the raw lifetime data is presented in order to quantify the data in such a way that is useful for laser system designers. The life tests demonstrate the high level of reliability of these arrays in a number of operating regimes. For single-bar arrays, a MTTF of 19.8 billion shots is predicted. For four-bar samples, a MTTF of 14.6 billion shots is predicted. In addition, data representing a large pump source is analyzed and shown to have an expected lifetime of 13.5 billion shots. This corresponds to an expected operational lifetime of greater than ten thousand hours at repetition rates less than 370 Hz.

Optimal feedback scheme and universal time scaling for Hamiltonian parameter estimation.

PubMed

Yuan, Haidong; Fung, Chi-Hang Fred

2015-09-11

Time is a valuable resource and it is expected that a longer time period should lead to better precision in Hamiltonian parameter estimation. However, recent studies in quantum metrology have shown that in certain cases more time may even lead to worse estimations, which puts this intuition into question. In this Letter we show that by including feedback controls this intuition can be restored. By deriving asymptotically optimal feedback controls we quantify the maximal improvement feedback controls can provide in Hamiltonian parameter estimation and show a universal time scaling for the precision limit under the optimal feedback scheme. Our study reveals an intriguing connection between noncommutativity in the dynamics and the gain of feedback controls in Hamiltonian parameter estimation.

Globally optimal trial design for local decision making.

PubMed

Eckermann, Simon; Willan, Andrew R

2009-02-01

Value of information methods allows decision makers to identify efficient trial design following a principle of maximizing the expected value to decision makers of information from potential trial designs relative to their expected cost. However, in health technology assessment (HTA) the restrictive assumption has been made that, prospectively, there is only expected value of sample information from research commissioned within jurisdiction. This paper extends the framework for optimal trial design and decision making within jurisdiction to allow for optimal trial design across jurisdictions. This is illustrated in identifying an optimal trial design for decision making across the US, the UK and Australia for early versus late external cephalic version for pregnant women presenting in the breech position. The expected net gain from locally optimal trial designs of US$0.72M is shown to increase to US$1.14M with a globally optimal trial design. In general, the proposed method of globally optimal trial design improves on optimal trial design within jurisdictions by: (i) reflecting the global value of non-rival information; (ii) allowing optimal allocation of trial sample across jurisdictions; (iii) avoiding market failure associated with free-rider effects, sub-optimal spreading of fixed costs and heterogeneity of trial information with multiple trials. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Testing competing measures of profitability for mobile resources.

PubMed

Barrette, Maryse; Wu, Gi-Mick; Brodeur, Jacques; Giraldeau, Luc-Alain; Boivin, Guy

2009-01-01

Optimal diet theory often fails to predict a forager's diet choice when prey are mobile. Because they escape or defend themselves, mobile prey are likely to increase the forager's handling time, thereby decreasing its fitness gain rate. Many animals have been shown to select their prey so as to maximize either their fitness gain or their fitness gain rate. However, no study has yet compared directly these two measures of profitability by generating testable predictions about the choice of the forager. Under laboratory conditions, we compared these two measures of profitability, using the aphid parasitoid Aphidius colemani and its host, Myzus persicae. Fitness gain was calculated for parasitoids developing in each host instar by measuring life-history traits such as developmental time, sex ratio and fecundity. Fitness gain rate was estimated by dividing fitness gain by handling time, the time required to subdue the host. Fourth instar aphids provided the best fitness gain to parasitoids, whereas second instar aphids were the most profitable in terms of fitness gain rate. Host choice tests showed that A. colemani females preferred second instar hosts, suggesting that their decision maximizes fitness gain rate over fitness gain. Our results indicate that fitness gain rate is a reliable predictor of animal's choice for foragers exploiting resources that impose additional time cost due to their mobility.

Effects of monetary reserves and rate of gain on human risky choice under budget constraints.

PubMed

Pietras, Cynthia J; Searcy, Gabriel D; Huitema, Brad E; Brandt, Andrew E

2008-07-01

The energy-budget rule is an optimal foraging model that predicts that choice should be risk averse when net gains plus reserves meet energy requirements (positive energy-budget conditions) and risk prone when net gains plus reserves fall below requirements (negative energy-budget conditions). Studies have shown that the energy-budget rule provides a good description of risky choice in humans when choice is studied under economic conditions (i.e., earnings budgets) that simulate positive and negative energy budgets. In previous human studies, earnings budgets were manipulated by varying earnings requirements, but in most nonhuman studies, energy budgets have been manipulated by varying reserves and/or mean rates of reinforcement. The present study therefore investigated choice in humans between certain and variable monetary outcomes when earnings budgets were manipulated by varying monetary reserves and mean rates of monetary gain. Consistent with the energy-budget rule, choice tended to be risk averse under positive-budget conditions and risk neutral or risk prone under negative-budget conditions. Sequential choices were also well described by a dynamic optimization model, especially when expected earnings for optimal choices were high. These results replicate and extend the results of prior experiments in showing that humans' choices are generally consistent with the predictions of the energy-budget rule when studied under conditions analogous to those used in nonhuman energy-budget studies, and that choice patterns tend to maximize reinforcement.

Deterministic quantum annealing expectation-maximization algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyahara, Hideyuki; Tsumura, Koji; Sughiyama, Yuki

2017-11-01

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is one of the most important methods in machine learning, and the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is often used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates. However, EM heavily depends on initial configurations and fails to find the global optimum. On the other hand, in the field of physics, quantum annealing (QA) was proposed as a novel optimization approach. Motivated by QA, we propose a quantum annealing extension of EM, which we call the deterministic quantum annealing expectation-maximization (DQAEM) algorithm. We also discuss its advantage in terms of the path integral formulation. Furthermore, by employing numerical simulations, we illustrate how DQAEM works in MLE and show that DQAEM moderate the problem of local optima in EM.

The ethical aspects of gain sharing with physicians.

PubMed

Thompson, Richard E

2004-01-01

Gain sharing arrangements involving physicians can be a model combination of ethical business practices and maximizing profits. Or, gain sharing can be as unethical as fee-splitting was at the turn of the century, and as corrupt as any conflict of interest. The devil is--or is not--in the details.

Estimating the cost of no-shows and evaluating the effects of mitigation strategies.

PubMed

Berg, Bjorn P; Murr, Michael; Chermak, David; Woodall, Jonathan; Pignone, Michael; Sandler, Robert S; Denton, Brian T

2013-11-01

To measure the cost of nonattendance ("no-shows") and benefit of overbooking and interventions to reduce no-shows for an outpatient endoscopy suite. We used a discrete-event simulation model to determine improved overbooking scheduling policies and examine the effect of no-shows on procedure utilization and expected net gain, defined as the difference in expected revenue based on Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services reimbursement rates and variable costs based on the sum of patient waiting time and provider and staff overtime. No-show rates were estimated from historical attendance (18% on average, with a sensitivity range of 12%-24%). We then evaluated the effectiveness of scheduling additional patients and the effect of no-show reduction interventions on the expected net gain. The base schedule booked 24 patients per day. The daily expected net gain with perfect attendance is $4433.32. The daily loss attributed to the base case no-show rate of 18% is $725.42 (16.4% of net gain), ranging from $472.14 to $1019.29 (10.7%-23.0% of net gain). Implementing no-show interventions reduced net loss by $166.61 to $463.09 (3.8%-10.5% of net gain). The overbooking policy of 9 additional patients per day resulted in no loss in expected net gain when compared with the reference scenario. No-shows can significantly decrease the expected net gain of outpatient procedure centers. Overbooking can help mitigate the impact of no-shows on a suite's expected net gain and has a lower expected cost of implementation to the provider than intervention strategies.

Functioning in the Real World: Using Storytelling to Improve Validity in the Assessment of Executive Functions.

PubMed

Annotti, Lee A; Teglasi, Hedwig

2017-01-01

Real-world contexts differ in the clarity of expectations for desired responses, as do assessment procedures, ranging along a continuum from maximal conditions that provide well-defined expectations to typical conditions that provide ill-defined expectations. Executive functions guide effective social interactions, but relations between them have not been studied with measures that are matched in the clarity of response expectations. In predicting teacher-rated social competence (SC) from kindergarteners' performance on tasks of executive functions (EFs), we found better model-data fit indexes when both measures were similar in the clarity of response expectations for the child. The maximal EF measure, the Developmental Neuropsychological Assessment, presents well-defined response expectations, and the typical EF measure, 5 scales from the Thematic Apperception Test (TAT), presents ill-defined response expectations (i.e., Abstraction, Perceptual Integration, Cognitive-Experiential Integration, and Associative Thinking). To assess SC under maximal and typical conditions, we used 2 teacher-rated questionnaires, with items, respectively, that emphasize well-defined and ill-defined expectations: the Behavior Rating Inventory: Behavioral Regulation Index and the Social Skills Improvement System: Social Competence Scale. Findings suggest that matching clarity of expectations improves generalization across measures and highlight the usefulness of the TAT to measure EF.

The Profit-Maximizing Firm: Old Wine in New Bottles.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Felder, Joseph

1990-01-01

Explains and illustrates a simplified use of graphical analysis for analyzing the profit-maximizing firm. Believes that graphical analysis helps college students gain a deeper understanding of marginalism and an increased ability to formulate economic problems in marginalist terms. (DB)

Linking Costs and Survival in the Treatment of Older Adults With Chronic Myeloid Leukemia: An Analysis of SEER-Medicare Data From 1995 to 2007.

PubMed

Lin, Pei-Jung; Winn, Aaron N; Parsons, Susan K; Neumann, Peter J; Weiss, Elisa S; Cohen, Joshua T

2016-04-01

The high prices of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) therapy are well recognized, but less discussion has focused on the value of health care spending on the disease. This study examined whether the added costs have been "worth" the benefits among older adults with CML. We analyzed trends in health care costs and survival over time of 2164 CML patients over age 65 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare-linked database. We estimated life expectancy over a 15-year duration after diagnosis using a Weibull survival model and projected the corresponding costs using a 2-part model, adjusting for patient characteristics. We estimated population-level survival, total health care costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (expressed as cost per life year gained) over the period of 1995-2007. We found that therapeutic improvements in the treatment of CML have been associated with survival gains among older adults. Mean life expectancy was 2.2 years in 1995 and increased to 4.2 years in 2007. During the same timeframe, CML care costs have increased, from $127,000 in 1995 to $278,000 in 2007 (2010 dollars), mostly due to increasing tyrosine kinase inhibitor costs. The aggregated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $74,000/life year gained. Our findings showed that, despite high costs, CML care may provide reasonable value for money among older patients between 1995-2007. Our study sheds light on the value of health care spending on CML by considering both the costs and the benefits. Future research should investigate strategies to improve treatment adherence to maximize the value of CML care.

DSN 70-meter antenna microwave optics design and performance improvements. Part 2: Comparison with measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bathker, D. A.; Slobin, S. D.

1989-01-01

The measured Deep Space Network (DSN) 70-meter antenna performance at S- and X-bands is compared with the design expectations. A discussion of natural radio-source calibration standards is given. New estimates of DSN 64-meter antenna performance are given, based on improved values of calibration source flux and size correction. A comparison of the 64- and 70-meter performances shows that average S-band peak gain improvement is 1.94 dB, compared with a design expectation of 1.77 dB. At X-band, the average peak gain improvement is 2.12 dB, compared with the (coincidentally similar) design expectation of 1.77 dB. The average measured 70-meter S-band peak gain exceeds the nominal design-expected gain by 0.02 dB; the average measured 70-meter X-band peak gain is 0.14 dB below the nominal design-expected gain.

Triple Gain: Practical Ideas for Maximizing Connections between Students, Faculty, and Professionals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powell, Gwynn M.; Duffy, Lauren N.; Stone, Garrett; Pinckney, Harrison P., IV.; Tucker, Teresa; Cathey, Jamie

2016-01-01

This document highlights numerous ideas that faculty can implement to provide a triple gain, that is, a gain for students, professionals and faculty through collaborative work. We will explore traditional and innovative connections that can be made between recreation professionals, students, and faculty, within parks, recreation, and tourism…

The Definition, Measurement and Development of Social Motives Underlying Cooperative and Competitive Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McClintock, Charles G.; Messick, David M.

This research proposal supports a program in social psychology which uses a variety of game paradigms and related tasks to obtain estimates of the relative dominance of various social motives including those of maximizing own gain (individualism), joint gain (cooperation), and relative gain (competition). Numerous major studies completed or in…

D-Optimal Experimental Design for Contaminant Source Identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sai Baba, A. K.; Alexanderian, A.

2016-12-01

Contaminant source identification seeks to estimate the release history of a conservative solute given point concentration measurements at some time after the release. This can be mathematically expressed as an inverse problem, with a linear observation operator or a parameter-to-observation map, which we tackle using a Bayesian approach. Acquisition of experimental data can be laborious and expensive. The goal is to control the experimental parameters - in our case, the sparsity of the sensors, to maximize the information gain subject to some physical or budget constraints. This is known as optimal experimental design (OED). D-optimal experimental design seeks to maximize the expected information gain, and has long been considered the gold standard in the statistics community. Our goal is to develop scalable methods for D-optimal experimental designs involving large-scale PDE constrained problems with high-dimensional parameter fields. A major challenge for the OED, is that a nonlinear optimization algorithm for the D-optimality criterion requires repeated evaluation of objective function and gradient involving the determinant of large and dense matrices - this cost can be prohibitively expensive for applications of interest. We propose novel randomized matrix techniques that bring down the computational costs of the objective function and gradient evaluations by several orders of magnitude compared to the naive approach. The effect of randomized estimators on the accuracy and the convergence of the optimization solver will be discussed. The features and benefits of our new approach will be demonstrated on a challenging model problem from contaminant source identification involving the inference of the initial condition from spatio-temporal observations in a time-dependent advection-diffusion problem.

Learning about Expectation Violation from Prediction Error Paradigms – A Meta-Analysis on Brain Processes Following a Prediction Error

PubMed Central

D’Astolfo, Lisa; Rief, Winfried

2017-01-01

Modifying patients’ expectations by exposing them to expectation violation situations (thus maximizing the difference between the expected and the actual situational outcome) is proposed to be a crucial mechanism for therapeutic success for a variety of different mental disorders. However, clinical observations suggest that patients often maintain their expectations regardless of experiences contradicting their expectations. It remains unclear which information processing mechanisms lead to modification or persistence of patients’ expectations. Insight in the processing could be provided by Neuroimaging studies investigating prediction error (PE, i.e., neuronal reactions to non-expected stimuli). Two methods are often used to investigate the PE: (1) paradigms, in which participants passively observe PEs (”passive” paradigms) and (2) paradigms, which encourage a behavioral adaptation following a PE (“active” paradigms). These paradigms are similar to the methods used to induce expectation violations in clinical settings: (1) the confrontation with an expectation violation situation and (2) an enhanced confrontation in which the patient actively challenges his expectation. We used this similarity to gain insight in the different neuronal processing of the two PE paradigms. We performed a meta-analysis contrasting neuronal activity of PE paradigms encouraging a behavioral adaptation following a PE and paradigms enforcing passiveness following a PE. We found more neuronal activity in the striatum, the insula and the fusiform gyrus in studies encouraging behavioral adaptation following a PE. Due to the involvement of reward assessment and avoidance learning associated with the striatum and the insula we propose that the deliberate execution of action alternatives following a PE is associated with the integration of new information into previously existing expectations, therefore leading to an expectation change. While further research is needed to directly assess expectations of participants, this study provides new insights into the information processing mechanisms following an expectation violation. PMID:28804467

Learning about Expectation Violation from Prediction Error Paradigms - A Meta-Analysis on Brain Processes Following a Prediction Error.

PubMed

D'Astolfo, Lisa; Rief, Winfried

2017-01-01

Modifying patients' expectations by exposing them to expectation violation situations (thus maximizing the difference between the expected and the actual situational outcome) is proposed to be a crucial mechanism for therapeutic success for a variety of different mental disorders. However, clinical observations suggest that patients often maintain their expectations regardless of experiences contradicting their expectations. It remains unclear which information processing mechanisms lead to modification or persistence of patients' expectations. Insight in the processing could be provided by Neuroimaging studies investigating prediction error (PE, i.e., neuronal reactions to non-expected stimuli). Two methods are often used to investigate the PE: (1) paradigms, in which participants passively observe PEs ("passive" paradigms) and (2) paradigms, which encourage a behavioral adaptation following a PE ("active" paradigms). These paradigms are similar to the methods used to induce expectation violations in clinical settings: (1) the confrontation with an expectation violation situation and (2) an enhanced confrontation in which the patient actively challenges his expectation. We used this similarity to gain insight in the different neuronal processing of the two PE paradigms. We performed a meta-analysis contrasting neuronal activity of PE paradigms encouraging a behavioral adaptation following a PE and paradigms enforcing passiveness following a PE. We found more neuronal activity in the striatum, the insula and the fusiform gyrus in studies encouraging behavioral adaptation following a PE. Due to the involvement of reward assessment and avoidance learning associated with the striatum and the insula we propose that the deliberate execution of action alternatives following a PE is associated with the integration of new information into previously existing expectations, therefore leading to an expectation change. While further research is needed to directly assess expectations of participants, this study provides new insights into the information processing mechanisms following an expectation violation.

A Bayesian approach for incorporating economic factors in sample size design for clinical trials of individual drugs and portfolios of drugs.

PubMed

Patel, Nitin R; Ankolekar, Suresh

2007-11-30

Classical approaches to clinical trial design ignore economic factors that determine economic viability of a new drug. We address the choice of sample size in Phase III trials as a decision theory problem using a hybrid approach that takes a Bayesian view from the perspective of a drug company and a classical Neyman-Pearson view from the perspective of regulatory authorities. We incorporate relevant economic factors in the analysis to determine the optimal sample size to maximize the expected profit for the company. We extend the analysis to account for risk by using a 'satisficing' objective function that maximizes the chance of meeting a management-specified target level of profit. We extend the models for single drugs to a portfolio of clinical trials and optimize the sample sizes to maximize the expected profit subject to budget constraints. Further, we address the portfolio risk and optimize the sample sizes to maximize the probability of achieving a given target of expected profit.

A Comparison of a Maximum Exertion Method and a Model-Based, Sub-Maximum Exertion Method for Normalizing Trunk EMG

PubMed Central

Cholewicki, Jacek; van Dieën, Jaap; Lee, Angela S.; Reeves, N. Peter

2011-01-01

The problem with normalizing EMG data from patients with painful symptoms (e.g. low back pain) is that such patients may be unwilling or unable to perform maximum exertions. Furthermore, the normalization to a reference signal, obtained from a maximal or sub-maximal task, tends to mask differences that might exist as a result of pathology. Therefore, we presented a novel method (GAIN method) for normalizing trunk EMG data that overcomes both problems. The GAIN method does not require maximal exertions (MVC) and tends to preserve distinct features in the muscle recruitment patterns for various tasks. Ten healthy subjects performed various isometric trunk exertions, while EMG data from 10 muscles were recorded and later normalized using the GAIN and MVC methods. The MVC method resulted in smaller variation between subjects when tasks were executed at the three relative force levels (10%, 20%, and 30% MVC), while the GAIN method resulted in smaller variation between subjects when the tasks were executed at the three absolute force levels (50 N, 100 N, and 145 N). This outcome implies that the MVC method provides a relative measure of muscle effort, while the GAIN-normalized EMG data gives an estimate of the absolute muscle force. Therefore, the GAIN-normalized EMG data tends to preserve the EMG differences between subjects in the way they recruit their muscles to execute various tasks, while the MVC-normalized data will tend to suppress such differences. The appropriate choice of the EMG normalization method will depend on the specific question that an experimenter is attempting to answer. PMID:21665489

AlphaMate: a program for optimising selection, maintenance of diversity, and mate allocation in breeding programs.

PubMed

Gorjanc, Gregor; Hickey, John M

2018-05-02

AlphaMate is a flexible program that optimises selection, maintenance of genetic diversity, and mate allocation in breeding programs. It can be used in animal and cross- and self-pollinating plant populations. These populations can be subject to selective breeding or conservation management. The problem is formulated as a multi-objective optimisation of a valid mating plan that is solved with an evolutionary algorithm. A valid mating plan is defined by a combination of mating constraints (the number of matings, the maximal number of parents, the minimal/equal/maximal number of contributions per parent, or allowance for selfing) that are gender specific or generic. The optimisation can maximize genetic gain, minimize group coancestry, minimize inbreeding of individual matings, or maximize genetic gain for a given increase in group coancestry or inbreeding. Users provide a list of candidate individuals with associated gender and selection criteria information (if applicable) and coancestry matrix. Selection criteria and coancestry matrix can be based on pedigree or genome-wide markers. Additional individual or mating specific information can be included to enrich optimisation objectives. An example of rapid recurrent genomic selection in wheat demonstrates how AlphaMate can double the efficiency of converting genetic diversity into genetic gain compared to truncation selection. Another example demonstrates the use of genome editing to expand the gain-diversity frontier. Executable versions of AlphaMate for Windows, Mac, and Linux platforms are available at http://www.AlphaGenes.roslin.ed.ac.uk/AlphaMate. gregor.gorjanc@roslin.ed.ack.uk.

Suboptimal Decision Criteria Are Predicted by Subjectively Weighted Probabilities and Rewards

PubMed Central

Ackermann, John F.; Landy, Michael S.

2014-01-01

Subjects performed a visual detection task in which the probability of target occurrence at each of the two possible locations, and the rewards for correct responses for each, were varied across conditions. To maximize monetary gain, observers should bias their responses, choosing one location more often than the other in line with the varied probabilities and rewards. Typically, and in our task, observers do not bias their responses to the extent they should, and instead distribute their responses more evenly across locations, a phenomenon referred to as ‘conservatism.’ We investigated several hypotheses regarding the source of the conservatism. We measured utility and probability weighting functions under Prospect Theory for each subject in an independent economic choice task and used the weighting-function parameters to calculate each subject’s subjective utility (SU(c)) as a function of the criterion c, and the corresponding weighted optimal criteria (wcopt). Subjects’ criteria were not close to optimal relative to wcopt. The slope of SU (c) and of expected gain EG(c) at the neutral criterion corresponding to β = 1 were both predictive of subjects’ criteria. The slope of SU(c) was a better predictor of observers’ decision criteria overall. Thus, rather than behaving optimally, subjects move their criterion away from the neutral criterion by estimating how much they stand to gain by such a change based on the slope of subjective gain as a function of criterion, using inherently distorted probabilities and values. PMID:25366822

Suboptimal decision criteria are predicted by subjectively weighted probabilities and rewards.

PubMed

Ackermann, John F; Landy, Michael S

2015-02-01

Subjects performed a visual detection task in which the probability of target occurrence at each of the two possible locations, and the rewards for correct responses for each, were varied across conditions. To maximize monetary gain, observers should bias their responses, choosing one location more often than the other in line with the varied probabilities and rewards. Typically, and in our task, observers do not bias their responses to the extent they should, and instead distribute their responses more evenly across locations, a phenomenon referred to as 'conservatism.' We investigated several hypotheses regarding the source of the conservatism. We measured utility and probability weighting functions under Prospect Theory for each subject in an independent economic choice task and used the weighting-function parameters to calculate each subject's subjective utility (SU(c)) as a function of the criterion c, and the corresponding weighted optimal criteria (wc opt ). Subjects' criteria were not close to optimal relative to wc opt . The slope of SU(c) and of expected gain EG(c) at the neutral criterion corresponding to β = 1 were both predictive of the subjects' criteria. The slope of SU(c) was a better predictor of observers' decision criteria overall. Thus, rather than behaving optimally, subjects move their criterion away from the neutral criterion by estimating how much they stand to gain by such a change based on the slope of subjective gain as a function of criterion, using inherently distorted probabilities and values.

Resource Allocation Strategies to Increase the Efficiency and Sustainability of Gavi's Health System Strengthening Grants.

PubMed

Mimche, Honoré; Squires, Ellen; Miangotar, Yodé; Mokdad, Ali; El Bcheraoui, Charbel

2018-05-01

Despite the increase in Health System Strengthening (HSS) grants, there is no consensus among global health actors about how to maximize the efficiency and sustainability of HSS programs and their resulting gains. To formally analyze and compare the efficiency and sustainability of Gavi's HSS grants, we investigated the factors, events and root causes that increased the time and effort needed to implement HSS grants, decreased expected outcomes and threatened the continuity of activities and the sustainability of the results gained through these grants in Cameron and Chad. We conducted 2 retrospective independent evaluations of Gavi's HSS support in Cameroon and Chad using a mixed methodology. We investigated the chain of events and situations that increased the effort and time required to implement the HSS programs, decreased the value of the funds spent and hindered the sustainability of the implemented activities and gains achieved. Root causes affecting the efficiency and sustainability of HSS grants were common to Cameroon and Chad. Weaknesses in health workforce and leadership/governance of the health system in both countries led to interrupting the HSS grants, reprogramming them, almost doubling their implementation period, shifting their focus during implementation toward procurements and service provision, leaving both countries without solid exit plans to maintain the results gained. To increase the efficiency and sustainability of Gavi's HSS grants, recipient countries need to consider health workforce and leadership/governance prior, or in parallel to strengthening other building blocks of their health systems.

Forecasting continuously increasing life expectancy: what implications?

PubMed

Le Bourg, Eric

2012-04-01

It has been proposed that life expectancy could linearly increase in the next decades and that median longevity of the youngest birth cohorts could reach 105 years or more. These forecasts have been criticized but it seems that their implications for future maximal lifespan (i.e. the lifespan of the last survivors) have not been considered. These implications make these forecasts untenable and it is less risky to hypothesize that life expectancy and maximal lifespan will reach an asymptotic limit in some decades from now. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Woody competition control

Treesearch

Robert F. Lowery

1986-01-01

Control of woody competition is necessary to maintain shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) as an important component of natural stands and to maximize shortleaf pine plantation productivity in the Southeast. Competition control is key to maximizing timber production since growth is moisture-limited over much of its range. Volume growth gains of 40% have been reported...

Holistic Admissions after Affirmative Action: Does "Maximizing" the High School Curriculum Matter?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bastedo, Michael N.; Howard, Joseph E.; Flaster, Allyson

2016-01-01

Selective colleges and universities purport to consider students' achievement in the context of the academic opportunities available in their high schools. Thus, students who "maximize" their curricular opportunities should be more likely to gain admission. Using nationally representative data, we examine the effect of "maximizing…

Electrical gain in interband cascade infrared photodetectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wenxiang; Li, Lu; Lei, Lin; Massengale, Jeremy A.; Yang, Rui Q.; Mishima, Tetsuya D.; Santos, Michael B.

2018-03-01

In order to achieve improved understanding and gain insights into the device operation of interband cascade infrared photodetectors (ICIPs) and ultimately to optimize the design, we present a comparative study of five long-wavelength (LW) ICIPs based on a type-II InAs/GaSb superlattice. This study shows how the device responsivity is affected by the individual absorber thicknesses and the number of cascade stages, through the impact of light attenuation. Additionally, this study further validates that the electrical gain universally exists in non-current-matched ICIPs. With multiple cascade stages to suppress noise, these LW ICIPs achieved superior device performance at high temperatures, in terms of Johnson-noise limited detectivities, compared to commercial MCT detectors. Furthermore, a theory is developed to quantitatively describe the electrical gain in ICIPs and our calculations are in good agreement with the experimental results. Based on the theory, the optimal number of stages for maximizing the device detectivity D* is identified with inclusion of the electrical gain. Our calculation shows that this optimal number of stages is relatively large in the presence of the gain and the maximized D* has a relatively weak dependence on the absorber thickness when it is sufficiently thin.

Maintaining homeostasis by decision-making.

PubMed

Korn, Christoph W; Bach, Dominik R

2015-05-01

Living organisms need to maintain energetic homeostasis. For many species, this implies taking actions with delayed consequences. For example, humans may have to decide between foraging for high-calorie but hard-to-get, and low-calorie but easy-to-get food, under threat of starvation. Homeostatic principles prescribe decisions that maximize the probability of sustaining appropriate energy levels across the entire foraging trajectory. Here, predictions from biological principles contrast with predictions from economic decision-making models based on maximizing the utility of the endpoint outcome of a choice. To empirically arbitrate between the predictions of biological and economic models for individual human decision-making, we devised a virtual foraging task in which players chose repeatedly between two foraging environments, lost energy by the passage of time, and gained energy probabilistically according to the statistics of the environment they chose. Reaching zero energy was framed as starvation. We used the mathematics of random walks to derive endpoint outcome distributions of the choices. This also furnished equivalent lotteries, presented in a purely economic, casino-like frame, in which starvation corresponded to winning nothing. Bayesian model comparison showed that--in both the foraging and the casino frames--participants' choices depended jointly on the probability of starvation and the expected endpoint value of the outcome, but could not be explained by economic models based on combinations of statistical moments or on rank-dependent utility. This implies that under precisely defined constraints biological principles are better suited to explain human decision-making than economic models based on endpoint utility maximization.

Maintaining Homeostasis by Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Korn, Christoph W.; Bach, Dominik R.

2015-01-01

Living organisms need to maintain energetic homeostasis. For many species, this implies taking actions with delayed consequences. For example, humans may have to decide between foraging for high-calorie but hard-to-get, and low-calorie but easy-to-get food, under threat of starvation. Homeostatic principles prescribe decisions that maximize the probability of sustaining appropriate energy levels across the entire foraging trajectory. Here, predictions from biological principles contrast with predictions from economic decision-making models based on maximizing the utility of the endpoint outcome of a choice. To empirically arbitrate between the predictions of biological and economic models for individual human decision-making, we devised a virtual foraging task in which players chose repeatedly between two foraging environments, lost energy by the passage of time, and gained energy probabilistically according to the statistics of the environment they chose. Reaching zero energy was framed as starvation. We used the mathematics of random walks to derive endpoint outcome distributions of the choices. This also furnished equivalent lotteries, presented in a purely economic, casino-like frame, in which starvation corresponded to winning nothing. Bayesian model comparison showed that—in both the foraging and the casino frames—participants’ choices depended jointly on the probability of starvation and the expected endpoint value of the outcome, but could not be explained by economic models based on combinations of statistical moments or on rank-dependent utility. This implies that under precisely defined constraints biological principles are better suited to explain human decision-making than economic models based on endpoint utility maximization. PMID:26024504

Maximal intended velocity training induces greater gains in bench press performance than deliberately slower half-velocity training.

PubMed

González-Badillo, Juan José; Rodríguez-Rosell, David; Sánchez-Medina, Luis; Gorostiaga, Esteban M; Pareja-Blanco, Fernando

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the effect on strength gains of two isoinertial resistance training (RT) programmes that only differed in actual concentric velocity: maximal (MaxV) vs. half-maximal (HalfV) velocity. Twenty participants were assigned to a MaxV (n = 9) or HalfV (n = 11) group and trained 3 times per week during 6 weeks using the bench press (BP). Repetition velocity was controlled using a linear velocity transducer. A complementary study (n = 10) aimed to analyse whether the acute metabolic (blood lactate and ammonia) and mechanical response (velocity loss) was different between the MaxV and HalfV protocols used. Both groups improved strength performance from pre- to post-training, but MaxV resulted in significantly greater gains than HalfV in all variables analysed: one-repetition maximum (1RM) strength (18.2 vs. 9.7%), velocity developed against all (20.8 vs. 10.0%), light (11.5 vs. 4.5%) and heavy (36.2 vs. 17.3%) loads common to pre- and post-tests. Light and heavy loads were identified with those moved faster or slower than 0.80 m · s(-1) (∼ 60% 1RM in BP). Lactate tended to be significantly higher for MaxV vs. HalfV, with no differences observed for ammonia which was within resting values. Both groups obtained the greatest improvements at the training velocities (≤ 0.80 m · s(-1)). Movement velocity can be considered a fundamental component of RT intensity, since, for a given %1RM, the velocity at which loads are lifted largely determines the resulting training effect. BP strength gains can be maximised when repetitions are performed at maximal intended velocity.

Hierarchical trie packet classification algorithm based on expectation-maximization clustering.

PubMed

Bi, Xia-An; Zhao, Junxia

2017-01-01

With the development of computer network bandwidth, packet classification algorithms which are able to deal with large-scale rule sets are in urgent need. Among the existing algorithms, researches on packet classification algorithms based on hierarchical trie have become an important packet classification research branch because of their widely practical use. Although hierarchical trie is beneficial to save large storage space, it has several shortcomings such as the existence of backtracking and empty nodes. This paper proposes a new packet classification algorithm, Hierarchical Trie Algorithm Based on Expectation-Maximization Clustering (HTEMC). Firstly, this paper uses the formalization method to deal with the packet classification problem by means of mapping the rules and data packets into a two-dimensional space. Secondly, this paper uses expectation-maximization algorithm to cluster the rules based on their aggregate characteristics, and thereby diversified clusters are formed. Thirdly, this paper proposes a hierarchical trie based on the results of expectation-maximization clustering. Finally, this paper respectively conducts simulation experiments and real-environment experiments to compare the performances of our algorithm with other typical algorithms, and analyzes the results of the experiments. The hierarchical trie structure in our algorithm not only adopts trie path compression to eliminate backtracking, but also solves the problem of low efficiency of trie updates, which greatly improves the performance of the algorithm.

Incentive payments are not related to expected health gain in the pay for performance scheme for UK primary care: cross-sectional analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The General Medical Services primary care contract for the United Kingdom financially rewards performance in 19 clinical areas, through the Quality and Outcomes Framework. Little is known about how best to determine the size of financial incentives in pay for performance schemes. Our aim was to test the hypothesis that performance indicators with larger population health benefits receive larger financial incentives. Methods We performed cross sectional analyses to quantify associations between the size of financial incentives and expected health gain in the 2004 and 2006 versions of the Quality and Outcomes Framework. We used non-parametric two-sided Spearman rank correlation tests. Health gain was measured in expected lives saved in one year and in quality adjusted life years. For each quality indicator in an average sized general practice we tested for associations first, between the marginal increase in payment and the health gain resulting from a one percent point improvement in performance and second, between total payment and the health gain at the performance threshold for maximum payment. Results Evidence for lives saved or quality adjusted life years gained was found for 28 indicators accounting for 41% of the total incentive payments. No statistically significant associations were found between the expected health gain and incentive gained from a marginal 1% increase in performance in either the 2004 or 2006 version of the Quality and Outcomes Framework. In addition no associations were found between the size of financial payment for achievement of an indicator and the expected health gain at the performance threshold for maximum payment measured in lives saved or quality adjusted life years. Conclusions In this subgroup of indicators the financial incentives were not aligned to maximise health gain. This disconnection between incentive and expected health gain risks supporting clinical activities that are only marginally effective, at the expense of more effective activities receiving lower incentives. When designing pay for performance programmes decisions about the size of the financial incentive attached to an indicator should be informed by information on the health gain to be expected from that indicator. PMID:22507660

An investigation of factors associated with fluid adherence among hemodialysis patients: a self-efficacy theory based approach.

PubMed

Brady, B A; Tucker, C M; Alfino, P A; Tarrant, D G; Finlayson, G C

1997-01-01

This research tested the hypothesis that fluid adherence (i.e. mean weekend interdialysis fluid weight gain) among adult chronic hemodialysis patients would have significant associations with fluid adherence efficacy expectation, fluid adherence outcome expectation, and fluid adherence motivation. The association of these variables with patients' medical characteristics was also examined. Results provide partial support for the hypothesis. Fluid adherence efficacy expectation was found to be a significant predictor of mean weekend interdialysis fluid weight gain (fluid adherence). Patients with higher fluid adherence efficacy expectations had lower mean weekend interdialysis fluid weight gains. However, fluid adherence outcome expectation and fluid adherence motivation were not found to be significant predictors of fluid adherence. Results also revealed that certain of the investigated medical characteristics were significantly associated with mean weekend interdialysis fluid weight gain and fluid adherence efficacy expectation. Implications for studying and modifying fluid adherence among hemodialysis patients are discussed.

Maximization of the directivity ratio with the desired audible gain level for broadband design of near field loudspeaker arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Daesung; Kim, Kihyun; Wang, Semyung; Lee, Sung Q.; Crocker, Malcolm J.

2011-11-01

This paper mainly addresses design methods for near field loudspeaker arrays. These methods have been studied recently since they can be used to realize a personal audio space without the use of headphones. From a practical view point, they can also be used to form a directional sound beam within a short distance from the sources especially using a linear loudspeaker array. In this regard, we re-analyzed the previous near field beamforming methods in order to obtain a comprehensive near field beamforming formulation. Broadband directivity control is proposed for multi-objective optimization, which maximizes the directivity with the desired gain, where both the directivity and the gain are commonly used array performance measures. This method of control aims to form a directive sound beam within a short distance while widening the frequency range of the beamforming. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate that broadband directivity control achieves higher directivity and gain over our whole frequency range of interest compared with previous beamforming methods.

Modeling Individual Patient Preferences for Colorectal Cancer Screening Based on Their Tolerance for Complications Risk.

PubMed

Taksler, Glen B; Perzynski, Adam T; Kattan, Michael W

2017-04-01

Recommendations for colorectal cancer screening encourage patients to choose among various screening methods based on individual preferences for benefits, risks, screening frequency, and discomfort. We devised a model to illustrate how individuals with varying tolerance for screening complications risk might decide on their preferred screening strategy. We developed a discrete-time Markov mathematical model that allowed hypothetical individuals to maximize expected lifetime utility by selecting screening method, start age, stop age, and frequency. Individuals could choose from stool-based testing every 1 to 3 years, flexible sigmoidoscopy every 1 to 20 years with annual stool-based testing, colonoscopy every 1 to 20 years, or no screening. We compared the life expectancy gained from the chosen strategy with the life expectancy available from a benchmark strategy of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual at average risk of colorectal cancer who was risk neutral with respect to screening complications (and therefore was willing to undergo screening if it would actuarially increase life expectancy), the model predicted that he or she would choose colonoscopy every 10 years, from age 53 to 73 years, consistent with national guidelines. For a similar individual who was moderately averse to screening complications risk (and therefore required a greater increase in life expectancy to accept potential risks of colonoscopy), the model predicted that he or she would prefer flexible sigmoidoscopy every 12 years with annual stool-based testing, with 93% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual with higher risk aversion, the model predicted that he or she would prefer 2 lifetime flexible sigmoidoscopies, 20 years apart, with 70% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. Mathematical models may formalize how individuals with different risk attitudes choose between various guideline-recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies.

Guidelines to indirectly measure and enhance detection efficiency of stationary PIT tag interrogation systems in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Connolly, Patrick J.; Wolf, Keith; O'Neal, Jennifer S.

2010-01-01

With increasing use of passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and reliance on stationary PIT tag interrogation systems to monitor fish populations, guidelines are offered to inform users how best to use limited funding and human resources to create functional systems that maximize a desired level of detection and precision. The estimators of detection efficiency and their variability as described by Connolly et al. (2008) are explored over a span of likely performance metrics. These estimators were developed to estimate detection efficiency without relying on a known number of fish passing the system. I present graphical displays of the results derived from these estimators to show the potential efficiency and precision to be gained by adding an array or by increasing the number of PIT-tagged fish expected to move past an interrogation system.

Guidelines for calculating and enhancing detection efficiency of PIT tag interrogation systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Connolly, Patrick J.

2010-01-01

With increasing use of passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and reliance on stationary PIT tag interrogation systems to monitor fish populations, guidelines are offered to inform users how best to use limited funding and human resources to create functional systems that maximize a desired level of detection and precision. The estimators of detection efficiency and their variability as described by Connolly et al. (2008) are explored over a span of likely performance metrics. These estimators were developed to estimate detection efficiency without relying on a known number of fish passing the system. I present graphical displays of the results derived from these estimators to show the potential efficiency and precision to be gained by adding an array or by increasing the number of PIT-tagged fish expected to move past an interrogation system.

Number-unconstrained quantum sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Morgan W.

2017-12-01

Quantum sensing is commonly described as a constrained optimization problem: maximize the information gained about an unknown quantity using a limited number of particles. Important sensors including gravitational wave interferometers and some atomic sensors do not appear to fit this description, because there is no external constraint on particle number. Here, we develop the theory of particle-number-unconstrained quantum sensing, and describe how optimal particle numbers emerge from the competition of particle-environment and particle-particle interactions. We apply the theory to optical probing of an atomic medium modeled as a resonant, saturable absorber, and observe the emergence of well-defined finite optima without external constraints. The results contradict some expectations from number-constrained quantum sensing and show that probing with squeezed beams can give a large sensitivity advantage over classical strategies when each is optimized for particle number.

Comparative Study of DC and AC Microgrids in Commercial Buildings Across Different Climates and Operating Profiles: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fregosi, D.; Ravula, S.; Brhlik, D.

2015-04-22

Bosch has developed and demonstrated a novel DC microgrid system designed to maximize utilization efficiency for locally generated photovoltaic energy while offering high reliability, safety, redundancy, and reduced cost compared to equivalent AC systems. Several demonstration projects validating the system feasibility and expected efficiency gains have been completed and additional ones are in progress. This work gives an overview of the Bosch DC microgrid system and presents key results from a large simulation study done to estimate the energy savings of the Bosch DC microgrid over conventional AC systems. The study examined the system performance in locations across the Unitedmore » States for several commercial building types and operating profiles and found that the Bosch DC microgrid uses generated PV energy 6%–8% more efficiently than traditional AC systems.« less

Low Cognitive Impulsivity Is Associated with Better Gain and Loss Learning in a Probabilistic Decision-Making Task

PubMed Central

Cáceres, Pablo; San Martín, René

2017-01-01

Many advances have been made over the last decades in describing, on the one hand, the link between reward-based learning and decision-making, and on the other hand, the link between impulsivity and decision-making. However, the association between reward-based learning and impulsivity remains poorly understood. In this study, we evaluated the association between individual differences in loss-minimizing and gain-maximizing behavior in a learning-based probabilistic decision-making task and individual differences in cognitive impulsivity. We found that low cognitive impulsivity was associated both with a better performance minimizing losses and maximizing gains during the task. These associations remained significant after controlling for mathematical skills and gender as potential confounders. We discuss potential mechanisms through which cognitive impulsivity might interact with reward-based learning and decision-making. PMID:28261137

Low Cognitive Impulsivity Is Associated with Better Gain and Loss Learning in a Probabilistic Decision-Making Task.

PubMed

Cáceres, Pablo; San Martín, René

2017-01-01

Many advances have been made over the last decades in describing, on the one hand, the link between reward-based learning and decision-making, and on the other hand, the link between impulsivity and decision-making. However, the association between reward-based learning and impulsivity remains poorly understood. In this study, we evaluated the association between individual differences in loss-minimizing and gain-maximizing behavior in a learning-based probabilistic decision-making task and individual differences in cognitive impulsivity. We found that low cognitive impulsivity was associated both with a better performance minimizing losses and maximizing gains during the task. These associations remained significant after controlling for mathematical skills and gender as potential confounders. We discuss potential mechanisms through which cognitive impulsivity might interact with reward-based learning and decision-making.

Volume versus value maximization illustrated for Douglas-fir with thinning

Treesearch

Kurt H. Riitters; J. Douglas Brodie; Chiang Kao

1982-01-01

Economic and physical criteria for selecting even-aged rotation lengths are reviewed with examples of their optimizations. To demonstrate the trade-off between physical volume, economic return, and stand diameter, examples of thinning regimes for maximizing volume, forest rent, and soil expectation are compared with an example of maximizing volume without thinning. The...

Sugar assimilation and digestive efficiency in Wahlberg's epauletted fruit bat (Epomophorus wahlbergi).

PubMed

Downs, Colleen T; Mqokeli, Babalwa; Singh, Preshnee

2012-03-01

Fruit- and nectar-feeding bats have high energy demands because of the cost of flight, and sugar is a good fuel because it is easily digested and absorbed. This study investigated the digestive efficiency of different sugars at different concentrations in Wahlberg's epauletted fruit bat (Epomophorus wahlbergi). We predicted that the sugar type and concentration would affect the total amount of solution consumed, while the total energy gained and the apparent assimilation efficiency would be high, irrespective of sugar type or concentration. Equicaloric solutions of two sugar types, glucose and sucrose, at low (10%), medium (15%) and high (25%) concentrations were offered in separate trials to bats. Total amount of solution consumed, total energy gained from each solution, and apparent assimilation efficiency, were measured. Bats had higher total volumetric intake of glucose and sucrose at the low concentrations than at the higher concentrations. However, bats maintained similar total energy intake on the respective glucose and sucrose concentrations. Bats were found to have high assimilation efficiencies on both glucose and sucrose irrespective of concentration. As bats used both sugars efficiently to maximize and maintain energy gain, it is expected that they feed opportunistically on fruit in the wild depending on temporal and spatial availability to obtain their energy requirements. Furthermore, fruit with high sucrose or glucose content will be consumed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the maximum off-axis gain of symmetrical pencil-beam antennas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sawitz, P. H.

1977-01-01

For a general class of symmetrical pencil-beam antennas, the gain at a given off-axis angle can be maximized by choosing the proper antenna size. The maximum gain at the given angle relative to the on-axis gain is independent of the given angle and dependent only on the main-beam pattern. It is computed here for four commonly used gain functions. Its value, in all cases, is close to 4 dB. This result is important in the definition of service areas for communication and broadcast satellites.

Noise-enhanced clustering and competitive learning algorithms.

PubMed

Osoba, Osonde; Kosko, Bart

2013-01-01

Noise can provably speed up convergence in many centroid-based clustering algorithms. This includes the popular k-means clustering algorithm. The clustering noise benefit follows from the general noise benefit for the expectation-maximization algorithm because many clustering algorithms are special cases of the expectation-maximization algorithm. Simulations show that noise also speeds up convergence in stochastic unsupervised competitive learning, supervised competitive learning, and differential competitive learning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Expectation-Maximization Algorithm for Amplitude Estimation of Saturated Optical Transient Signals.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kagie, Matthew J.; Lanterman, Aaron D.

2017-12-01

This paper addresses parameter estimation for an optical transient signal when the received data has been right-censored. We develop an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the amplitude of a Poisson intensity with a known shape in the presence of additive background counts, where the measurements are subject to saturation effects. We compare the results of our algorithm with those of an EM algorithm that is unaware of the censoring.

PEM-PCA: a parallel expectation-maximization PCA face recognition architecture.

PubMed

Rujirakul, Kanokmon; So-In, Chakchai; Arnonkijpanich, Banchar

2014-01-01

Principal component analysis or PCA has been traditionally used as one of the feature extraction techniques in face recognition systems yielding high accuracy when requiring a small number of features. However, the covariance matrix and eigenvalue decomposition stages cause high computational complexity, especially for a large database. Thus, this research presents an alternative approach utilizing an Expectation-Maximization algorithm to reduce the determinant matrix manipulation resulting in the reduction of the stages' complexity. To improve the computational time, a novel parallel architecture was employed to utilize the benefits of parallelization of matrix computation during feature extraction and classification stages including parallel preprocessing, and their combinations, so-called a Parallel Expectation-Maximization PCA architecture. Comparing to a traditional PCA and its derivatives, the results indicate lower complexity with an insignificant difference in recognition precision leading to high speed face recognition systems, that is, the speed-up over nine and three times over PCA and Parallel PCA.

Using Survival Analysis to Improve Estimates of Life Year Gains in Policy Evaluations.

PubMed

Meacock, Rachel; Sutton, Matt; Kristensen, Søren Rud; Harrison, Mark

2017-05-01

Policy evaluations taking a lifetime horizon have converted estimated changes in short-term mortality to expected life year gains using general population life expectancy. However, the life expectancy of the affected patients may differ from the general population. In trials, survival models are commonly used to extrapolate life year gains. The objective was to demonstrate the feasibility and materiality of using parametric survival models to extrapolate future survival in health care policy evaluations. We used our previous cost-effectiveness analysis of a pay-for-performance program as a motivating example. We first used the cohort of patients admitted prior to the program to compare 3 methods for estimating remaining life expectancy. We then used a difference-in-differences framework to estimate the life year gains associated with the program using general population life expectancy and survival models. Patient-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics was utilized for patients admitted to hospitals in England for pneumonia between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2008 and between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2010, and linked to death records for the period from 1 April 2007 to 31 March 2011. In our cohort of patients, using parametric survival models rather than general population life expectancy figures reduced the estimated mean life years remaining by 30% (9.19 v. 13.15 years, respectively). However, the estimated mean life year gains associated with the program are larger using survival models (0.380 years) compared to using general population life expectancy (0.154 years). Using general population life expectancy to estimate the impact of health care policies can overestimate life expectancy but underestimate the impact of policies on life year gains. Using a longer follow-up period improved the accuracy of estimated survival and program impact considerably.

Efficiency gain limits of the parallel segmented inlet and outlet flow concept in analytical liquid chromatography columns suffering from radial transcolumn packing density gradients.

PubMed

Broeckhoven, Ken; Desmet, Gert

2012-10-05

The maximal gain in efficiency that can be expected from the use of the segmented column end fittings that were recently introduced to alleviate the effect of transcolumn packing density gradients has been quantified and generalized using numerical computations of the band broadening process. It was found that, for an unretained compound in a column with a parabolic packing density gradient, the use of a segmented inlet or a segmented outlet allows to eliminate about 60-100% of the plate height contribution (H(tc)) originating from a parabolic transcolumn velocity gradient in a d(c)=4.6 mm column. In a d(c)=2.1 mm column, these percentages change from 10 to 100%. Using a combined segmented in- and outlet, H(tc) can be reduced by about 90-100% (d(c)=4.6 mm column) or 20-100% (d(c)=2.1 mm column). The strong variation of these gain percentages is due to fact that they depend very strongly on the column length and the flow rate. Dimensionless graphs have been established that allow to directly quantify the effect for each specific case. It was also found that, in agreement with one's physical intuition, trans-column velocity profiles that are more flat in the central region benefit more from the concept than sharp, parabolic-like profiles. The gain margins furthermore tend to become smaller with increasing retention and increasing diffusion coefficient. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical trie packet classification algorithm based on expectation-maximization clustering

PubMed Central

Bi, Xia-an; Zhao, Junxia

2017-01-01

With the development of computer network bandwidth, packet classification algorithms which are able to deal with large-scale rule sets are in urgent need. Among the existing algorithms, researches on packet classification algorithms based on hierarchical trie have become an important packet classification research branch because of their widely practical use. Although hierarchical trie is beneficial to save large storage space, it has several shortcomings such as the existence of backtracking and empty nodes. This paper proposes a new packet classification algorithm, Hierarchical Trie Algorithm Based on Expectation-Maximization Clustering (HTEMC). Firstly, this paper uses the formalization method to deal with the packet classification problem by means of mapping the rules and data packets into a two-dimensional space. Secondly, this paper uses expectation-maximization algorithm to cluster the rules based on their aggregate characteristics, and thereby diversified clusters are formed. Thirdly, this paper proposes a hierarchical trie based on the results of expectation-maximization clustering. Finally, this paper respectively conducts simulation experiments and real-environment experiments to compare the performances of our algorithm with other typical algorithms, and analyzes the results of the experiments. The hierarchical trie structure in our algorithm not only adopts trie path compression to eliminate backtracking, but also solves the problem of low efficiency of trie updates, which greatly improves the performance of the algorithm. PMID:28704476

Cooperative Resource Pricing in Service Overlay Networks for Mobile Agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakano, Tadashi; Okaie, Yutaka

The success of peer-to-peer overlay networks depends on cooperation among participating peers. In this paper, we investigate the degree of cooperation among individual peers required to induce globally favorable properties in an overlay network. Specifically, we consider a resource pricing problem in a market-oriented overlay network where participating peers sell own resources (e.g., CPU cycles) to earn energy which represents some money or rewards in the network. In the resource pricing model presented in this paper, each peer sets the price for own resource based on the degree of cooperation; non-cooperative peers attempt to maximize their own energy gains, while cooperative peers maximize the sum of own and neighbors' energy gains. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate that the network topology is an important factor influencing the minimum degree of cooperation required to increase the network-wide global energy gain.

No pain, no gain: Male plasticity in burrow digging according to female rejection in a sand-dwelling wolf spider.

PubMed

Carballo, Matilde; Baldenegro, Fabiana; Bollatti, Fedra; Peretti, Alfredo V; Aisenberg, Anita

2017-07-01

Behavioral plasticity allows individuals to reversibly respond to short-term variations in their ecological and social environment in order to maximize their fitness. Allocosa senex is a burrow-digging spider that inhabits the sandy coasts of South America. This species shows a reversal in typical sex roles expected in spiders: females are wanderers that visit males at their burrows and initiate courtship. They prefer males with long burrows for mating, and males prefer virgin over mated females. We tested whether female sexual rejection induced males to enlarge their burrows and if female reproductive status affected males' responses. We exposed males who had constructed burrows to: a) virgin females or b) mated females, (n=16 for each category). If female rejection occurred, we repeated the trial 48h later with the same female. As control, we maintained a group of males without female exposure (unexposed group, n=32). Rejected males enlarged their burrows more frequently and burrows were longer compared to unexposed males. However, frequency and length of enlargement did not differ according to female reproductive status. Males of A. senex showed plasticity in digging behavior in response to the availability of females, as a way to maximize the possibilities of future mating. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved slow-light performance of 10 Gb/s NRZ, PSBT and DPSK signals in fiber broadband SBS.

PubMed

Yi, Lilin; Jaouen, Yves; Hu, Weisheng; Su, Yikai; Bigo, Sébastien

2007-12-10

We have demonstrated error-free operations of slow-light via stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS) in optical fiber for 10-Gb/s signals with different modulation formats, including non-return-to-zero (NRZ), phase-shaped binary transmission (PSBT) and differential phase-shiftkeying (DPSK). The SBS gain bandwidth is broadened by using current noise modulation of the pump laser diode. The gain shape is simply controlled by the noise density function. Super-Gaussian noise modulation of the Brillouin pump allows a flat-top and sharp-edge SBS gain spectrum, which can reduce slow-light induced distortion in case of 10-Gb/s NRZ signal. The corresponding maximal delay-time with error-free operation is 35 ps. Then we propose the PSBT format to minimize distortions resulting from SBS filtering effect and dispersion accompanied with slow light because of its high spectral efficiency and strong dispersion tolerance. The sensitivity of the 10-Gb/s PSBT signal is 5.2 dB better than the NRZ case with a same 35-ps delay. The maximal delay of 51 ps with error-free operation has been achieved. Futhermore, the DPSK format is directly demodulated through a Gaussian-shaped SBS gain, which is achieved using Gaussian-noise modulation of the Brillouin pump. The maximal error-free time delay after demodulation of a 10-Gb/s DPSK signal is as high as 81.5 ps, which is the best demonstrated result for 10-Gb/s slow-light.

Maximizing carbon storage in the Appalachians: A method for considering the risk of disturbance events

Treesearch

Michael R. Vanderberg; Kevin Boston; John Bailey

2011-01-01

Accounting for the probability of loss due to disturbance events can influence the prediction of carbon flux over a planning horizon, and can affect the determination of optimal silvicultural regimes to maximize terrestrial carbon storage. A preliminary model that includes forest disturbance-related carbon loss was developed to maximize expected values of carbon stocks...

Sensor-driven area coverage for an autonomous fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle.

PubMed

Paull, Liam; Thibault, Carl; Nagaty, Amr; Seto, Mae; Li, Howard

2014-09-01

Area coverage with an onboard sensor is an important task for an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) with many applications. Autonomous fixed-wing UAVs are more appropriate for larger scale area surveying since they can cover ground more quickly. However, their non-holonomic dynamics and susceptibility to disturbances make sensor coverage a challenging task. Most previous approaches to area coverage planning are offline and assume that the UAV can follow the planned trajectory exactly. In this paper, this restriction is removed as the aircraft maintains a coverage map based on its actual pose trajectory and makes control decisions based on that map. The aircraft is able to plan paths in situ based on sensor data and an accurate model of the on-board camera used for coverage. An information theoretic approach is used that selects desired headings that maximize the expected information gain over the coverage map. In addition, the branch entropy concept previously developed for autonomous underwater vehicles is extended to UAVs and ensures that the vehicle is able to achieve its global coverage mission. The coverage map over the workspace uses the projective camera model and compares the expected area of the target on the ground and the actual area covered on the ground by each pixel in the image. The camera is mounted on a two-axis gimbal and can either be stabilized or optimized for maximal coverage. Hardware-in-the-loop simulation results and real hardware implementation on a fixed-wing UAV show the effectiveness of the approach. By including the already developed automatic takeoff and landing capabilities, we now have a fully automated and robust platform for performing aerial imagery surveys.

Maximizing power output from continuous-wave single-frequency fiber amplifiers.

PubMed

Ward, Benjamin G

2015-02-15

This Letter reports on a method of maximizing the power output from highly saturated cladding-pumped continuous-wave single-frequency fiber amplifiers simultaneously, taking into account the stimulated Brillouin scattering and transverse modal instability thresholds. This results in a design figure of merit depending on the fundamental mode overlap with the doping profile, the peak Brillouin gain coefficient, and the peak mode coupling gain coefficient. This figure of merit is then numerically analyzed for three candidate fiber designs including standard, segmented acoustically tailored, and micro-segmented acoustically tailored photonic-crystal fibers. It is found that each of the latter two fibers should enable a 50% higher output power than standard photonic crystal fiber.

Relationship between pre-weaning gain, age at puberty, and reproductive tract development in Angus heifers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Beef heifers should initiate reproductive cycles by 12 mo of age to insure multiple estrous cycles before the start of the breeding season to maximize fertility. Previous research indicated that pre-weaning gain positively influenced the onset of puberty and antral follicle numbers. Therefore, the...

Optimal Base Station Density of Dense Network: From the Viewpoint of Interference and Load.

PubMed

Feng, Jianyuan; Feng, Zhiyong

2017-09-11

Network densification is attracting increasing attention recently due to its ability to improve network capacity by spatial reuse and relieve congestion by offloading. However, excessive densification and aggressive offloading can also cause the degradation of network performance due to problems of interference and load. In this paper, with consideration of load issues, we study the optimal base station density that maximizes the throughput of the network. The expected link rate and the utilization ratio of the contention-based channel are derived as the functions of base station density using the Poisson Point Process (PPP) and Markov Chain. They reveal the rules of deployment. Based on these results, we obtain the throughput of the network and indicate the optimal deployment density under different network conditions. Extensive simulations are conducted to validate our analysis and show the substantial performance gain obtained by the proposed deployment scheme. These results can provide guidance for the network densification.

Ionization imaging—A new method to search for 0- ν ββ decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chinowski, W.; Goldschmidt, A.; Nygren, D.; Bernstein, A.; Heffner, M.; Millaud, J.

2007-10-01

We present a new method to search for 0- ν ββ decay in 136Xe, the Ionization Imaging Chamber. This concept is based on 3-D track reconstruction by detection of ionization, without avalanche gain, in a novel time projection chamber (TPC) geometry. The rejection efficiency of external charged particle backgrounds is optimized by the realization of a maximal, fully active, closed, and ex post facto variable fiducial surface. Event localization within the fiducial volume and detailed event reconstruction mitigate external neutral particle backgrounds; larger detectors offer higher rejection efficiencies. Energy resolution at the Q-value of 2.5 MeV is expected to be better than 1% FWHM, reducing the potential impact of allowed 2- ν ββ decays. Scaling from ˜25 kg prototype to 1000+ kg target mass is graceful. A new possible methodology for the identification of the daughter barium nucleus is also described.

Joint channel estimation and multi-user detection for multipath fading channels in DS-CDMA systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Sau-Hsuan; Kuo, C.-C. Jay

2002-11-01

The technique of joint blind channel estimation and multiple access interference (MAI) suppression for an asynchronous code-division multiple-access (CDMA) system is investigated in this research. To identify and track dispersive time-varying fading channels and to avoid the phase ambiguity that come with the second-order statistic approaches, a sliding-window scheme using the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is proposed. The complexity of joint channel equalization and symbol detection for all users increases exponentially with system loading and the channel memory. The situation is exacerbated if strong inter-symbol interference (ISI) exists. To reduce the complexity and the number of samples required for channel estimation, a blind multiuser detector is developed. Together with multi-stage interference cancellation using soft outputs provided by this detector, our algorithm can track fading channels with no phase ambiguity even when channel gains attenuate close to zero.

Comparative Study of DC and AC Microgrids in Commercial Buildings Across Different Climates and Operating Profiles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fregosi, Daniel; Ravula, Sharmila; Brhlik, Dusan

2015-06-07

Bosch has developed and demonstrated a novel direct current (DC) microgrid system that maximizes the efficiency of locally generated photovoltaic energy while offering high reliability, safety, redundancy, and reduced cost compared to equivalent alternating current (AC) systems. Several demonstration projects validating the system feasibility and expected efficiency gains have been completed and additional ones are in progress. This paper gives an overview of the Bosch DC microgrid system and presents key results from a large simulation study done to estimate the energy savings of the Bosch DC microgrid over conventional AC systems. The study examined the system performance in locationsmore » across the United States for several commercial building types and operating profiles. It found that the Bosch DC microgrid uses generated PV energy 6%-8% more efficiently than traditional AC systems.« less

Preliminary considerations for extraction of thermal effect from magma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hickox, C. E.; Dunn, J. C.

Simplified mathematical models are developed to describe the extraction of thermal energy from magma based on the concept of a counter-flow heat exchanger inserted into the magma body. Analytical solutions are used to investigate influence of the basic variables on electric power production. Calculations confirm that the proper heat exchanger flow path is down the annulus with hot fluid returning to the surface through the central core. The core must be insulated from the annulus to achieve acceptable wellhead temperatures, but this insulation thickness can be quite small. The insulation is effective in maintaining the colder annular flow below expected formation temperatures so that a net beat gain from the formation above a magma body is predicted. The analynes show that optimum flow rates exist that maximize electric power production. These optimum flow rates are functions of the heat transfer coefficients that describe magma energy extraction.

Adapting the Speed of Reproduction of Audio Content and Using Text Reinforcement for Maximizing the Learning Outcome though Mobile Phones

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Munoz-Organero, M.; Munoz-Merino, P. J.; Kloos, Carlos Delgado

2011-01-01

The use of technology in learning environments should be targeted at improving the learning outcome of the process. Several technology enhanced techniques can be used for maximizing the learning gain of particular students when having access to learning resources. One of them is content adaptation. Adapting content is especially important when…

Trust Maximization in Social Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Justin; Fang, Xing

Trust is a human-related phenomenon in social networks. Trust research on social networks has gained much attention on its usefulness, and on modeling propagations. There is little focus on finding maximum trust in social networks which is particularly important when a social network is oriented by certain tasks. In this paper, we propose a trust maximization algorithm based on the task-oriented social networks.

Estimating the effects of a calorie-based sugar-sweetened beverage tax on weight and obesity in New York City adults using dynamic loss models.

PubMed

Ruff, Ryan Richard; Zhen, Chen

2015-05-01

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) contribute to weight gain and increase the risk of obesity. In this article, we determine the effects of an innovative SSB tax on weight and obesity in New York City adults. Dynamic weight loss models were used to estimate the effects of an expected 5800-calorie reduction resulting from an SSB tax on weight and obesity. Baseline data were derived from the New York City Community Health Survey. One, five, and 10-year simulations of weight loss were performed. Calorie reductions resulted in a per-person weight loss of 0.46 kg in year 1 and 0.92 kg in year 10. A total of 5,531,059 kg was expected to be lost over 10 years when weighted to the full New York City adult population. Approximately 50% of overall bodyweight loss occurred within the first year, and 95% within 5 years. Results showed consistent but nonsignificant decreases in obesity prevalence. SSB taxes may be viable strategies to reduce obesity when combined with other interventions to maximize effects in the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expectation maximization-based likelihood inference for flexible cure rate models with Weibull lifetimes.

PubMed

Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy; Pal, Suvra

2016-08-01

Recently, a flexible cure rate survival model has been developed by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest to follow the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution. This model includes some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature as special cases. Data obtained from cancer clinical trials are often right censored and expectation maximization algorithm can be used in this case to efficiently estimate the model parameters based on right censored data. In this paper, we consider the competing cause scenario and assuming the time-to-event to follow the Weibull distribution, we derive the necessary steps of the expectation maximization algorithm for estimating the parameters of different cure rate survival models. The standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are obtained by inverting the observed information matrix. The method of inference developed here is examined by means of an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, we illustrate the proposed methodology with a real data on cancer recurrence. © The Author(s) 2013.

Expectation maximization for hard X-ray count modulation profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benvenuto, F.; Schwartz, R.; Piana, M.; Massone, A. M.

2013-07-01

Context. This paper is concerned with the image reconstruction problem when the measured data are solar hard X-ray modulation profiles obtained from the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) instrument. Aims: Our goal is to demonstrate that a statistical iterative method classically applied to the image deconvolution problem is very effective when utilized to analyze count modulation profiles in solar hard X-ray imaging based on rotating modulation collimators. Methods: The algorithm described in this paper solves the maximum likelihood problem iteratively and encodes a positivity constraint into the iterative optimization scheme. The result is therefore a classical expectation maximization method this time applied not to an image deconvolution problem but to image reconstruction from count modulation profiles. The technical reason that makes our implementation particularly effective in this application is the use of a very reliable stopping rule which is able to regularize the solution providing, at the same time, a very satisfactory Cash-statistic (C-statistic). Results: The method is applied to both reproduce synthetic flaring configurations and reconstruct images from experimental data corresponding to three real events. In this second case, the performance of expectation maximization, when compared to Pixon image reconstruction, shows a comparable accuracy and a notably reduced computational burden; when compared to CLEAN, shows a better fidelity with respect to the measurements with a comparable computational effectiveness. Conclusions: If optimally stopped, expectation maximization represents a very reliable method for image reconstruction in the RHESSI context when count modulation profiles are used as input data.

Statistical iterative reconstruction for streak artefact reduction when using multidetector CT to image the dento-alveolar structures.

PubMed

Dong, J; Hayakawa, Y; Kober, C

2014-01-01

When metallic prosthetic appliances and dental fillings exist in the oral cavity, the appearance of metal-induced streak artefacts is not avoidable in CT images. The aim of this study was to develop a method for artefact reduction using the statistical reconstruction on multidetector row CT images. Adjacent CT images often depict similar anatomical structures. Therefore, reconstructed images with weak artefacts were attempted using projection data of an artefact-free image in a neighbouring thin slice. Images with moderate and strong artefacts were continuously processed in sequence by successive iterative restoration where the projection data was generated from the adjacent reconstructed slice. First, the basic maximum likelihood-expectation maximization algorithm was applied. Next, the ordered subset-expectation maximization algorithm was examined. Alternatively, a small region of interest setting was designated. Finally, the general purpose graphic processing unit machine was applied in both situations. The algorithms reduced the metal-induced streak artefacts on multidetector row CT images when the sequential processing method was applied. The ordered subset-expectation maximization and small region of interest reduced the processing duration without apparent detriments. A general-purpose graphic processing unit realized the high performance. A statistical reconstruction method was applied for the streak artefact reduction. The alternative algorithms applied were effective. Both software and hardware tools, such as ordered subset-expectation maximization, small region of interest and general-purpose graphic processing unit achieved fast artefact correction.

Uncertainty, robustness, and the value of information in managing an expanding Arctic goose population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Jensen, Gitte H.; Madsen, Jesper; Williams, Byron K.

2014-01-01

We explored the application of dynamic-optimization methods to the problem of pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) management in western Europe. We were especially concerned with the extent to which uncertainty in population dynamics influenced an optimal management strategy, the gain in management performance that could be expected if uncertainty could be eliminated or reduced, and whether an adaptive or robust management strategy might be most appropriate in the face of uncertainty. We combined three alternative survival models with three alternative reproductive models to form a set of nine annual-cycle models for pink-footed geese. These models represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which they are influenced by spring temperatures. We calculated state-dependent harvest strategies for these models using stochastic dynamic programming and an objective function that maximized sustainable harvest, subject to a constraint on desired population size. As expected, attaining the largest mean objective value (i.e., the relative measure of management performance) depended on the ability to match a model-dependent optimal strategy with its generating model of population dynamics. The nine models suggested widely varying objective values regardless of the harvest strategy, with the density-independent models generally producing higher objective values than models with density-dependent survival. In the face of uncertainty as to which of the nine models is most appropriate, the optimal strategy assuming that both survival and reproduction were a function of goose abundance and spring temperatures maximized the expected minimum objective value (i.e., maxi–min). In contrast, the optimal strategy assuming equal model weights minimized the expected maximum loss in objective value. The expected value of eliminating model uncertainty was an increase in objective value of only 3.0%. This value represents the difference between the best that could be expected if the most appropriate model were known and the best that could be expected in the face of model uncertainty. The value of eliminating uncertainty about the survival process was substantially higher than that associated with the reproductive process, which is consistent with evidence that variation in survival is more important than variation in reproduction in relatively long-lived avian species. Comparing the expected objective value if the most appropriate model were known with that of the maxi–min robust strategy, we found the value of eliminating uncertainty to be an expected increase of 6.2% in objective value. This result underscores the conservatism of the maxi–min rule and suggests that risk-neutral managers would prefer the optimal strategy that maximizes expected value, which is also the strategy that is expected to minimize the maximum loss (i.e., a strategy based on equal model weights). The low value of information calculated for pink-footed geese suggests that a robust strategy (i.e., one in which no learning is anticipated) could be as nearly effective as an adaptive one (i.e., a strategy in which the relative credibility of models is assessed through time). Of course, an alternative explanation for the low value of information is that the set of population models we considered was too narrow to represent key uncertainties in population dynamics. Yet we know that questions about the presence of density dependence must be central to the development of a sustainable harvest strategy. And while there are potentially many environmental covariates that could help explain variation in survival or reproduction, our admission of models in which vital rates are drawn randomly from reasonable distributions represents a worst-case scenario for management. We suspect that much of the value of the various harvest strategies we calculated is derived from the fact that they are state dependent, such that appropriate harvest rates depend on population abundance and weather conditions, as well as our focus on an infinite time horizon for sustainability.

Optimal Control Techniques for ResistiveWall Modes in Tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clement, Mitchell Dobbs Pearson

Tokamaks can excite kink modes that can lock or nearly lock to the vacuum vessel wall, and whose rotation frequencies and growth rates vary in time but are generally inversely proportional to the magnetic flux diffusion time of the vacuum vessel wall. This magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instability is pressure limiting in tokamaks and is called the Resistive Wall Mode (RWM). Future tokamaks that are expected to operate as fusion reactors will be required to maximize plasma pressure in order to maximize fusion performance. The DIII-D tokamak is equipped with electromagnetic control coils, both inside and outside of its vacuum vessel, which create magnetic fields that are small by comparison to the machine's equilibrium field but are able to dynamically counteract the RWM. Presently for RWM feedback, DIII-D uses its interior control coils using a classical proportional gain only controller to achieve high plasma pressure. Future advanced tokamak designs will not likely have the luxury of interior control coils and a proportional gain algorithm is not expected to be effective with external control coils. The computer code VALEN was designed to calculate the performance of an MHD feedback control system in an arbitrary geometry. VALEN models the perturbed magnetic field from a single MHD instability and its interaction with surrounding conducting structures using a finite element approach. A linear quadratic gaussian (LQG) control, or H 2 optimal control, algorithm based on the VALEN model for RWM feedback was developed for use with DIII-D's external control coil set. The algorithm is implemented on a platform that combines a graphics processing unit (GPU) for real-time control computation with low latency digital input/output control hardware and operates in parallel with the DIII-D Plasma Control System (PCS). Simulations and experiments showed that modern control techniques performed better, using 77% less current, than classical techniques when using coils external to the vacuum vessel for RWM feedback. RWM feedback based on VALEN outperformed a classical control algorithm using external coils to suppress the normalized plasma response to a rotating n=1 perturbation applied by internal coils over a range of frequencies. This study describes the design, development and testing of the GPU based control hardware and algorithm along with its performance during experiment and simulation.

Gains in Life Expectancy Associated with Higher Education in Men

PubMed Central

Bijwaard, Govert E.; van Poppel, Frans; Ekamper, Peter; Lumey, L. H.

2015-01-01

Background Many studies show large differences in life expectancy across the range of education, intelligence, and socio-economic status. As educational attainment, intelligence, and socio-economic status are highly interrelated, appropriate methods are required to disentangle their separate effects. The aim of this paper is to present a novel method to estimate gains in life expectancy specifically associated with increased education. Our analysis is based on a structural model in which education level, IQ at age 18 and mortality all depend on (latent) intelligence. The model allows for (selective) educational choices based on observed factors and on an unobserved factor capturing intelligence. Our estimates are based on information from health examinations of military conscripts born in 1944–1947 in The Netherlands and their vital status through age 66 (n = 39,798). Results Our empirical results show that men with higher education have lower mortality. Using structural models to account for education choice, the estimated gain in life expectancy for men moving up one educational level ranges from 0.3 to 2 years. The estimated gain in months alive over the observational period ranges from -1.2 to 5.7 months. The selection effect is positive and amounts to a gain of one to two months. Decomposition of the selection effect shows that the gain from selection on (latent) intelligence is larger than the gain from selection on observed factors and amounts to 1.0 to 1.7 additional months alive. Conclusion Our findings confirm the strong selection into education based on socio-economic status and intelligence. They also show significant higher life expectancy among individuals with higher education after the selectivity of education choice has been taken into account. Based on these estimates, it is plausible therefore that increases in education could lead to increases in life expectancy. PMID:26496647

Potential Gains in Life Expectancy from Reductions in Leading Causes of Death, Los Angeles County: a Quantitative Approach to Identify Candidate Diseases for Prevention and Burden Disparities Elimination.

PubMed

Ho, Alex; Hameed, Heena; Lee, Alice W; Shih, Margaret

2016-09-01

Despite overall gains in life expectancy at birth among Los Angeles County residents, significant disparities persist across population subgroups. The purpose of this study was to quantify the potential sex- and race/ethnicity-specific gains in life expectancy had we been able to fully or partially eliminate the leading causes of death in Los Angeles County. Complete annual life tables for local residents were generated by applying the same method used for the National Center of Health Statistics US life tables published in 1999. Based on 2010 Los Angeles County mortality records, sex- and race/ethnicity-specific potential gains in life expectancy were calculated using scenarios of 10, 20, 50, and 100 % elimination of 12 major causes of death. Coronary heart disease, the leading cause of death, was found to be most impactful on life expectancy. Its hypothetical full elimination would result in life expectancy gains ranging from 2.2 years among white females to 3.7 years among black males. Gains from complete elimination of lung cancer and stroke ranked second, with almost an additional year of life for each gender. However, marked disparities across racial/ethnic groups were noted from the elimination of several other causes of death, such as homicide, from which the gain among black males exceeded 13 times more than their white counterparts. By differentially targeting specific causes of death in disease prevention, not only can findings of this study aid in efficiently narrowing racial/ethnic disparities, they can also provide a quantitative means to identify and rank priorities in local health policymaking.

Gains in Life Expectancy Associated with Higher Education in Men.

PubMed

Bijwaard, Govert E; van Poppel, Frans; Ekamper, Peter; Lumey, L H

2015-01-01

Many studies show large differences in life expectancy across the range of education, intelligence, and socio-economic status. As educational attainment, intelligence, and socio-economic status are highly interrelated, appropriate methods are required to disentangle their separate effects. The aim of this paper is to present a novel method to estimate gains in life expectancy specifically associated with increased education. Our analysis is based on a structural model in which education level, IQ at age 18 and mortality all depend on (latent) intelligence. The model allows for (selective) educational choices based on observed factors and on an unobserved factor capturing intelligence. Our estimates are based on information from health examinations of military conscripts born in 1944-1947 in The Netherlands and their vital status through age 66 (n = 39,798). Our empirical results show that men with higher education have lower mortality. Using structural models to account for education choice, the estimated gain in life expectancy for men moving up one educational level ranges from 0.3 to 2 years. The estimated gain in months alive over the observational period ranges from -1.2 to 5.7 months. The selection effect is positive and amounts to a gain of one to two months. Decomposition of the selection effect shows that the gain from selection on (latent) intelligence is larger than the gain from selection on observed factors and amounts to 1.0 to 1.7 additional months alive. Our findings confirm the strong selection into education based on socio-economic status and intelligence. They also show significant higher life expectancy among individuals with higher education after the selectivity of education choice has been taken into account. Based on these estimates, it is plausible therefore that increases in education could lead to increases in life expectancy.

Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

PubMed

Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

2018-05-01

In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

Multimodal Hierarchical Dirichlet Process-Based Active Perception by a Robot

PubMed Central

Taniguchi, Tadahiro; Yoshino, Ryo; Takano, Toshiaki

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose an active perception method for recognizing object categories based on the multimodal hierarchical Dirichlet process (MHDP). The MHDP enables a robot to form object categories using multimodal information, e.g., visual, auditory, and haptic information, which can be observed by performing actions on an object. However, performing many actions on a target object requires a long time. In a real-time scenario, i.e., when the time is limited, the robot has to determine the set of actions that is most effective for recognizing a target object. We propose an active perception for MHDP method that uses the information gain (IG) maximization criterion and lazy greedy algorithm. We show that the IG maximization criterion is optimal in the sense that the criterion is equivalent to a minimization of the expected Kullback–Leibler divergence between a final recognition state and the recognition state after the next set of actions. However, a straightforward calculation of IG is practically impossible. Therefore, we derive a Monte Carlo approximation method for IG by making use of a property of the MHDP. We also show that the IG has submodular and non-decreasing properties as a set function because of the structure of the graphical model of the MHDP. Therefore, the IG maximization problem is reduced to a submodular maximization problem. This means that greedy and lazy greedy algorithms are effective and have a theoretical justification for their performance. We conducted an experiment using an upper-torso humanoid robot and a second one using synthetic data. The experimental results show that the method enables the robot to select a set of actions that allow it to recognize target objects quickly and accurately. The numerical experiment using the synthetic data shows that the proposed method can work appropriately even when the number of actions is large and a set of target objects involves objects categorized into multiple classes. The results support our theoretical outcomes. PMID:29872389

Multimodal Hierarchical Dirichlet Process-Based Active Perception by a Robot.

PubMed

Taniguchi, Tadahiro; Yoshino, Ryo; Takano, Toshiaki

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose an active perception method for recognizing object categories based on the multimodal hierarchical Dirichlet process (MHDP). The MHDP enables a robot to form object categories using multimodal information, e.g., visual, auditory, and haptic information, which can be observed by performing actions on an object. However, performing many actions on a target object requires a long time. In a real-time scenario, i.e., when the time is limited, the robot has to determine the set of actions that is most effective for recognizing a target object. We propose an active perception for MHDP method that uses the information gain (IG) maximization criterion and lazy greedy algorithm. We show that the IG maximization criterion is optimal in the sense that the criterion is equivalent to a minimization of the expected Kullback-Leibler divergence between a final recognition state and the recognition state after the next set of actions. However, a straightforward calculation of IG is practically impossible. Therefore, we derive a Monte Carlo approximation method for IG by making use of a property of the MHDP. We also show that the IG has submodular and non-decreasing properties as a set function because of the structure of the graphical model of the MHDP. Therefore, the IG maximization problem is reduced to a submodular maximization problem. This means that greedy and lazy greedy algorithms are effective and have a theoretical justification for their performance. We conducted an experiment using an upper-torso humanoid robot and a second one using synthetic data. The experimental results show that the method enables the robot to select a set of actions that allow it to recognize target objects quickly and accurately. The numerical experiment using the synthetic data shows that the proposed method can work appropriately even when the number of actions is large and a set of target objects involves objects categorized into multiple classes. The results support our theoretical outcomes.

Field use of maximal sprint speed by collared lizards (Crotaphytus collaris): compensation and sexual selection.

PubMed

Husak, Jerry F; Fox, Stanley F

2006-09-01

To understand how selection acts on performance capacity, the ecological role of the performance trait being measured must be determined. Knowing if and when an animal uses maximal performance capacity may give insight into what specific selective pressures may be acting on performance, because individuals are expected to use close to maximal capacity only in contexts important to survival or reproductive success. Furthermore, if an ecological context is important, poor performers are expected to compensate behaviorally. To understand the relative roles of natural and sexual selection on maximal sprint speed capacity we measured maximal sprint speed of collared lizards (Crotaphytus collaris) in the laboratory and field-realized sprint speed for the same individuals in three different contexts (foraging, escaping a predator, and responding to a rival intruder). Females used closer to maximal speed while escaping predators than in the other contexts. Adult males, on the other hand, used closer to maximal speed while responding to an unfamiliar male intruder tethered within their territory. Sprint speeds during foraging attempts were far below maximal capacity for all lizards. Yearlings appeared to compensate for having lower absolute maximal capacity by using a greater percentage of their maximal capacity while foraging and escaping predators than did adults of either sex. We also found evidence for compensation within age and sex classes, where slower individuals used a greater percentage of their maximal capacity than faster individuals. However, this was true only while foraging and escaping predators and not while responding to a rival. Collared lizards appeared to choose microhabitats near refugia such that maximal speed was not necessary to escape predators. Although natural selection for predator avoidance cannot be ruled out as a selective force acting on locomotor performance in collared lizards, intrasexual selection for territory maintenance may be more important for territorial males.

Dichoptic training in adults with amblyopia: Additional stereoacuity gains over monocular training.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang-Yun; Zhang, Jun-Yun

2017-08-04

Dichoptic training is a recent focus of research on perceptual learning in adults with amblyopia, but whether and how dichoptic training is superior to traditional monocular training is unclear. Here we investigated whether dichoptic training could further boost visual acuity and stereoacuity in monocularly well-trained adult amblyopic participants. During dichoptic training the participants used the amblyopic eye to practice a contrast discrimination task, while a band-filtered noise masker was simultaneously presented in the non-amblyopic fellow eye. Dichoptic learning was indexed by the increase of maximal tolerable noise contrast for successful contrast discrimination in the amblyopic eye. The results showed that practice tripled maximal tolerable noise contrast in 13 monocularly well-trained amblyopic participants. Moreover, the training further improved stereoacuity by 27% beyond the 55% gain from previous monocular training, but unchanged visual acuity of the amblyopic eyes. Therefore our dichoptic training method may produce extra gains of stereoacuity, but not visual acuity, in adults with amblyopia after monocular training. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bi-directional thruster development and test report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacot, A. D.; Bushnell, G. S.; Anderson, T. M.

1990-01-01

The design, calibration and testing of a cold gas, bi-directional throttlable thruster are discussed. The thruster consists of an electro-pneumatic servovalve exhausting through opposite nozzles with a high gain pressure feedback loop to optimize performance. The thruster force was measured to determine hysteresis and linearity. Integral gain was used to maximize performance for linearity, hysteresis, and minimum thrust requirements. Proportional gain provided high dynamic response (bandwidth and phase lag). Thruster performance is very important since the thrusters are intended to be used for active control.

Integrating Health Education in Core Curriculum Classrooms: Successes, Challenges, and Implications for Urban Middle Schools.

PubMed

Rajan, Sonali; Roberts, Katherine J; Guerra, Laura; Pirsch, Moira; Morrell, Ernest

2017-12-01

School-based health education efforts can positively affect health behaviors and learning outcomes; however, there is limited available time during the school day for separate health education classes. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility and sustainability of implementing a classroom-based health education program that integrates skill development with health learning. A wait-list control study design was conducted among 168 6th graders in 2 urban schools. Data on program implementation, feasibility, and health outcomes were collected from students at 3 time points and from 5 teachers across the implementation of the 10-week program. There were barriers to implementation, including time limitations, unexpected school-wide disruptions, and variations in student reading ability and teacher preparedness. However, analyses revealed there were significant increases in self-efficacy regarding fruit and vegetable consumption and outcome expectations following program implementation, which were also sustained post-program implementation. Despite inconsistent implementation in the wait-list control school, small gains were also noted following the completion of the program. Integrating health education efforts within core curricula classes can lead to favorable outcomes. However, implementation barriers must be actively addressed by schools and program developers to improve program fidelity and maximize the sustainability of program gains. © 2017, American School Health Association.

Experimental Study of the Angle of Repose of Surrogate Martian Dust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moeller, L. E.; Tuller, M.; Baker, L.; Marshall, J.; Castiglione, P.; Kuhlman, K.

2003-01-01

Accumulation of wind-blown dust particles on solar cells and instruments will be a great challenge in the exploration of Mars, significantly reducing their lifetime, durability, and power output. For future Mars Lander missions it is crucial to gain information about the ideal angle at which solar panels can be positioned to minimize dust deposition and thus, maximize the power output and lifetime of the solar cells. The major determinant for the optimal panel angle is the angle of repose of the dust particles that is dependent on a variety of physical and chemical properties of the particles, the panel surface, and the environmental conditions on the Mars surface. To gain a basic understanding of the physical and chemical processes that govern dust deposition and to get feedback for the design of an experiment suitable for one of the future Mars Lander missions we simulate atmospheric conditions expected on the Mars surface in a controlled chamber, and observe the angle of repose of Mars dust surrogates. Dust deposition and angle of repose were observed on different sized spheres. To cover a range of potential materials we will use spheres made of 7075 aluminum (10 mm, and 15 mm), alumina oxide ceramic (10 mm), and Teflon(trademark) (10 mm) and wafers of gallium arsenide, silicon.

Confronting Diversity in the Community College Classroom: Six Maxims for Good Teaching.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gillett-Karam, Rosemary

1992-01-01

Emphasizes the leadership role of community college faculty in developing critical teaching strategies focusing attention on the needs of women and minorities. Describes six maxims of teaching excellence: engaging students' desire to learn, increasing opportunities, eliminating obstacles, empowering students through high expectations, offering…

Interactions between rate processes with different timescales explain counterintuitive foraging patterns of arctic wintering eiders

PubMed Central

Heath, Joel P.; Gilchrist, H. Grant; Ydenberg, Ronald C.

2010-01-01

To maximize fitness, animals must respond to a variety of processes that operate at different rates or timescales. Appropriate decisions could therefore involve complex interactions among these processes. For example, eiders wintering in the arctic sea ice must consider locomotion and physiology of diving for benthic invertebrates, digestive processing rate and a nonlinear decrease in profitability of diving as currents increase over the tidal cycle. Using a multi-scale dynamic modelling approach and continuous field observations of individuals, we demonstrate that the strategy that maximizes long-term energy gain involves resting during the most profitable foraging period (slack currents). These counterintuitive foraging patterns are an adaptive trade-off between multiple overlapping rate processes and cannot be explained by classical rate-maximizing optimization theory, which only considers a single timescale and predicts a constant rate of foraging. By reducing foraging and instead digesting during slack currents, eiders structure their activity in order to maximize long-term energetic gain over an entire tide cycle. This study reveals how counterintuitive patterns and a complex functional response can result from a simple trade-off among several overlapping rate processes, emphasizing the necessity of a multi-scale approach for understanding adaptive routines in the wild and evaluating mechanisms in ecological time series. PMID:20504814

Testing a hydraulic trait based model of stomatal control: results from a controlled drought experiment on aspen (Populus tremuloides, Michx.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa, Douglas)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, D. M.; Venturas, M.; Sperry, J.; Wang, Y.; Anderegg, W.

2017-12-01

Modeling approaches for tree stomatal control often rely on empirical fitting to provide accurate estimates of whole tree transpiration (E) and assimilation (A), which are limited in their predictive power by the data envelope used to calibrate model parameters. Optimization based models hold promise as a means to predict stomatal behavior under novel climate conditions. We designed an experiment to test a hydraulic trait based optimization model, which predicts stomatal conductance from a gain/risk approach. Optimal stomatal conductance is expected to maximize the potential carbon gain by photosynthesis, and minimize the risk to hydraulic transport imposed by cavitation. The modeled risk to the hydraulic network is assessed from cavitation vulnerability curves, a commonly measured physiological trait in woody plant species. Over a growing season garden grown plots of aspen (Populus tremuloides, Michx.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa, Douglas) were subjected to three distinct drought treatments (moderate, severe, severe with rehydration) relative to a control plot to test model predictions. Model outputs of predicted E, A, and xylem pressure can be directly compared to both continuous data (whole tree sapflux, soil moisture) and point measurements (leaf level E, A, xylem pressure). The model also predicts levels of whole tree hydraulic impairment expected to increase mortality risk. This threshold is used to estimate survivorship in the drought treatment plots. The model can be run at two scales, either entirely from climate (meteorological inputs, irrigation) or using the physiological measurements as a starting point. These data will be used to study model performance and utility, and aid in developing the model for larger scale applications.

Stochastic optimization of intensity modulated radiotherapy to account for uncertainties in patient sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kåver, Gereon; Lind, Bengt K.; Löf, Johan; Liander, Anders; Brahme, Anders

1999-12-01

The aim of the present work is to better account for the known uncertainties in radiobiological response parameters when optimizing radiation therapy. The radiation sensitivity of a specific patient is usually unknown beyond the expectation value and possibly the standard deviation that may be derived from studies on groups of patients. Instead of trying to find the treatment with the highest possible probability of a desirable outcome for a patient of average sensitivity, it is more desirable to maximize the expectation value of the probability for the desirable outcome over the possible range of variation of the radiation sensitivity of the patient. Such a stochastic optimization will also have to consider the distribution function of the radiation sensitivity and the larger steepness of the response for the individual patient. The results of stochastic optimization are also compared with simpler methods such as using biological response `margins' to account for the range of sensitivity variation. By using stochastic optimization, the absolute gain will typically be of the order of a few per cent and the relative improvement compared with non-stochastic optimization is generally less than about 10 per cent. The extent of this gain varies with the level of interpatient variability as well as with the difficulty and complexity of the case studied. Although the dose changes are rather small (<5 Gy) there is a strong desire to make treatment plans more robust, and tolerant of the likely range of variation of the radiation sensitivity of each individual patient. When more accurate predictive assays of the radiation sensitivity for each patient become available, the need to consider the range of variations can be reduced considerably.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tom, Nathan M.; Madhi, Farshad; Yeung, Ronald W.

The aim of this paper is to maximize the power-to-load ratio of the Berkeley Wedge: a one-degree-of-freedom, asymmetrical, energy-capturing, floating breakwater of high performance that is relatively free of viscosity effects. Linear hydrodynamic theory was used to calculate bounds on the expected time-averaged power (TAP) and corresponding surge restraining force, pitch restraining torque, and power take-off (PTO) control force when assuming that the heave motion of the wave energy converter remains sinusoidal. This particular device was documented to be an almost-perfect absorber if one-degree-of-freedom motion is maintained. The success of such or similar future wave energy converter technologies would requiremore » the development of control strategies that can adapt device performance to maximize energy generation in operational conditions while mitigating hydrodynamic loads in extreme waves to reduce the structural mass and overall cost. This paper formulates the optimal control problem to incorporate metrics that provide a measure of the surge restraining force, pitch restraining torque, and PTO control force. The optimizer must now handle an objective function with competing terms in an attempt to maximize power capture while minimizing structural and actuator loads. A penalty weight is placed on the surge restraining force, pitch restraining torque, and PTO actuation force, thereby allowing the control focus to be placed either on power absorption or load mitigation. Thus, in achieving these goals, a per-unit gain in TAP would not lead to a greater per-unit demand in structural strength, hence yielding a favorable benefit-to-cost ratio. Demonstrative results in the form of TAP, reactive TAP, and the amplitudes of the surge restraining force, pitch restraining torque, and PTO control force are shown for the Berkeley Wedge example.« less

Using whole disease modeling to inform resource allocation decisions: economic evaluation of a clinical guideline for colorectal cancer using a single model.

PubMed

Tappenden, Paul; Chilcott, Jim; Brennan, Alan; Squires, Hazel; Glynne-Jones, Rob; Tappenden, Janine

2013-06-01

To assess the feasibility and value of simulating whole disease and treatment pathways within a single model to provide a common economic basis for informing resource allocation decisions. A patient-level simulation model was developed with the intention of being capable of evaluating multiple topics within National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence's colorectal cancer clinical guideline. The model simulates disease and treatment pathways from preclinical disease through to detection, diagnosis, adjuvant/neoadjuvant treatments, follow-up, curative/palliative treatments for metastases, supportive care, and eventual death. The model parameters were informed by meta-analyses, randomized trials, observational studies, health utility studies, audit data, costing sources, and expert opinion. Unobservable natural history parameters were calibrated against external data using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Economic analysis was undertaken using conventional cost-utility decision rules within each guideline topic and constrained maximization rules across multiple topics. Under usual processes for guideline development, piecewise economic modeling would have been used to evaluate between one and three topics. The Whole Disease Model was capable of evaluating 11 of 15 guideline topics, ranging from alternative diagnostic technologies through to treatments for metastatic disease. The constrained maximization analysis identified a configuration of colorectal services that is expected to maximize quality-adjusted life-year gains without exceeding current expenditure levels. This study indicates that Whole Disease Model development is feasible and can allow for the economic analysis of most interventions across a disease service within a consistent conceptual and mathematical infrastructure. This disease-level modeling approach may be of particular value in providing an economic basis to support other clinical guidelines. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Balancing Power Absorption and Structural Loading for an Asymmetric Heave Wave-Energy Converter in Regular Waves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tom, Nathan M.; Madhi, Farshad; Yeung, Ronald W.

2016-06-24

The aim of this paper is to maximize the power-to-load ratio of the Berkeley Wedge: a one-degree-of-freedom, asymmetrical, energy-capturing, floating breakwater of high performance that is relatively free of viscosity effects. Linear hydrodynamic theory was used to calculate bounds on the expected time-averaged power (TAP) and corresponding surge restraining force, pitch restraining torque, and power take-off (PTO) control force when assuming that the heave motion of the wave energy converter remains sinusoidal. This particular device was documented to be an almost-perfect absorber if one-degree-of-freedom motion is maintained. The success of such or similar future wave energy converter technologies would requiremore » the development of control strategies that can adapt device performance to maximize energy generation in operational conditions while mitigating hydrodynamic loads in extreme waves to reduce the structural mass and overall cost. This paper formulates the optimal control problem to incorporate metrics that provide a measure of the surge restraining force, pitch restraining torque, and PTO control force. The optimizer must now handle an objective function with competing terms in an attempt to maximize power capture while minimizing structural and actuator loads. A penalty weight is placed on the surge restraining force, pitch restraining torque, and PTO actuation force, thereby allowing the control focus to be placed either on power absorption or load mitigation. Thus, in achieving these goals, a per-unit gain in TAP would not lead to a greater per-unit demand in structural strength, hence yielding a favorable benefit-to-cost ratio. Demonstrative results in the form of TAP, reactive TAP, and the amplitudes of the surge restraining force, pitch restraining torque, and PTO control force are shown for the Berkeley Wedge example.« less

Model-Based Clustering of Regression Time Series Data via APECM -- An AECM Algorithm Sung to an Even Faster Beat

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Wei-Chen; Maitra, Ranjan

2011-01-01

We propose a model-based approach for clustering time series regression data in an unsupervised machine learning framework to identify groups under the assumption that each mixture component follows a Gaussian autoregressive regression model of order p. Given the number of groups, the traditional maximum likelihood approach of estimating the parameters using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm can be employed, although it is computationally demanding. The somewhat fast tune to the EM folk song provided by the Alternating Expectation Conditional Maximization (AECM) algorithm can alleviate the problem to some extent. In this article, we develop an alternative partial expectation conditional maximization algorithmmore » (APECM) that uses an additional data augmentation storage step to efficiently implement AECM for finite mixture models. Results on our simulation experiments show improved performance in both fewer numbers of iterations and computation time. The methodology is applied to the problem of clustering mutual funds data on the basis of their average annual per cent returns and in the presence of economic indicators.« less

Power-to-load balancing for asymmetric heave wave energy converters with nonideal power take-off

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tom, Nathan M.; Madhi, Farshad; Yeung, Ronald W.

The aim of this study is to maximize the power-to-load ratio for asymmetric heave wave energy converters. Linear hydrodynamic theory was used to calculate bounds of the expected time-averaged power (TAP) and corresponding surge-restraining force, pitch-restraining torque, and power take-off (PTO) control force with the assumption of sinusoidal displacement. This paper formulates an optimal control problem to handle an objective function with competing terms in an attempt to maximize power capture while minimizing structural and actuator loads in regular and irregular waves. Penalty weights are placed on the surge-restraining force, pitch-restraining torque, and PTO actuation force, thereby allowing the controlmore » focus to concentrate on either power absorption or load mitigation. The penalty weights are used to control peak structural and actuator loads that were found to curb the additional losses in power absorption associated with a nonideal PTO. Thus, in achieving these goals, a per-unit gain in TAP would not lead to a greater per-unit demand in structural strength, hence yielding a favorable benefit-to-cost ratio. Demonstrative results for 'The Berkeley Wedge' in the form of output TAP, reactive TAP needed to drive WEC motion, and the amplitudes of the surge-restraining force, pitch-restraining torque, and PTO control force are shown.« less

Power-to-load balancing for asymmetric heave wave energy converters with nonideal power take-off

DOE PAGES

Tom, Nathan M.; Madhi, Farshad; Yeung, Ronald W.

2017-12-11

The aim of this study is to maximize the power-to-load ratio for asymmetric heave wave energy converters. Linear hydrodynamic theory was used to calculate bounds of the expected time-averaged power (TAP) and corresponding surge-restraining force, pitch-restraining torque, and power take-off (PTO) control force with the assumption of sinusoidal displacement. This paper formulates an optimal control problem to handle an objective function with competing terms in an attempt to maximize power capture while minimizing structural and actuator loads in regular and irregular waves. Penalty weights are placed on the surge-restraining force, pitch-restraining torque, and PTO actuation force, thereby allowing the controlmore » focus to concentrate on either power absorption or load mitigation. The penalty weights are used to control peak structural and actuator loads that were found to curb the additional losses in power absorption associated with a nonideal PTO. Thus, in achieving these goals, a per-unit gain in TAP would not lead to a greater per-unit demand in structural strength, hence yielding a favorable benefit-to-cost ratio. Demonstrative results for 'The Berkeley Wedge' in the form of output TAP, reactive TAP needed to drive WEC motion, and the amplitudes of the surge-restraining force, pitch-restraining torque, and PTO control force are shown.« less

Framing effects and risky decisions in starlings.

PubMed

Marsh, Barnaby; Kacelnik, Alex

2002-03-05

Animals are predominantly risk prone toward reward delays and risk averse toward reward amounts. Humans in turn tend to be risk-seeking for losses and risk averse for gains. To explain the human results, Prospect Theory postulates a convex utility for losses and concave utility for gains. In contrast, Scalar Utility Theory (SUT) explains the animal data by postulating that the cognitive representation of outcomes follows Weber's Law, namely that the spread of the distribution of expected outcomes is proportional to its mean. SUT also would explain human results if utility (even if it is linear on expected outcome) followed Weber's Law. We present an experiment that simulates losses and gains in a bird, the European Starling, to test the implication of SUT that risk proneness/aversion should extend to any aversive/desirable dimension other than time and amount of reward. Losses and gains were simulated by offering choices of fixed vs. variable outcomes with lower or higher outcomes than what the birds expected. The subjects were significantly more risk prone for losses than for gains but, against expectations, they were not significantly risk averse toward gains. The results are thus, in part, consistent with Prospect Theory and SUT and show that risk attitude in humans and birds may obey a common fundamental principle.

Energy Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bazjanac, Vladimir

1981-01-01

The Aquatic Center at Corvallis (Oregon) is analyzed for energy use. Energy conservation in the building would be accomplished best through heavy insulation of exterior surfaces and the maximization of passive solar gain. (Author/MLF)

Fluid-electrolyte shifts and maximal oxygen uptake in man at simulated altitude /2,287 m/

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenleaf, J. E.; Bernauer, E. M.; Adams, W. C.; Juhos, L.

1978-01-01

Experiments were conducted on six trained distance runners (21-23 yr) subjected to an eight-day dietary control at sea level, followed by an eight-day stay in an altitude chamber (2287-m altitude) and a four-day recovery at sea level. Fluid and electrolyte shifts during exercise at altitude were evaluated to gain insight into the mechanism of reduction in working capacity. The results are discussed in terms of resting fluid volumes and blood constituents, maximal exercise variables, and maximal exercise fluid-electrolyte shifts. Since there are no significant changes in fluid balance or resting plasma volume (PV) at altitude, it is concluded that neither these nor the excessive PV shifts with exercise contribute to the reduction in maximal oxygen uptake at altitude. During altitude exposure the percent loss in PV is found to follow the percent reduction in maximal oxygen uptake; however, on the first day of recovery the percent change in PV remains depressed while maximal oxygen uptake returns to control levels.

Distortion management in slow-light pulse delay.

PubMed

Stenner, Michael D; Neifeld, Mark A; Zhu, Zhaoming; Dawes, Andrew M C; Gauthier, Daniel J

2005-12-12

We describe a methodology to maximize slow-light pulse delay subject to a constraint on the allowable pulse distortion. We show that optimizing over a larger number of physical variables can increase the distortion-constrained delay. We demonstrate these concepts by comparing the optimum slow-light pulse delay achievable using a single Lorentzian gain line with that achievable using a pair of closely-spaced gain lines. We predict that distortion management using a gain doublet can provide approximately a factor of 2 increase in slow-light pulse delay as compared with the optimum single-line delay. Experimental results employing Brillouin gain in optical fiber confirm our theoretical predictions.

The Self in Decision Making and Decision Implementation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beach, Lee Roy; Mitchell, Terence R.

Since the early 1950's the principal prescriptive model in the psychological study of decision making has been maximization of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). This SEU maximization has come to be regarded as a description of how people go about making decisions. However, while observed decision processes sometimes resemble the SEU model,…

The European Common Agricultural Policy on fruits and vegetables: exploring potential health gain from reform.

PubMed

Veerman, J Lennert; Barendregt, Jan J; Mackenbach, Johan P

2006-02-01

Consumption of fruits and vegetables is associated with a reduced risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer. The European Union Common Agricultural Policy keeps prices high by limiting the availability of fruits and vegetables. This policy is at odds with public health interests. We assess the potential health gain for the Dutch population of discontinuing EU withdrawal support for fruits and vegetables. The maximum effect of the reform was estimated by assuming that a quantity equivalent to the amount of produce withdrawn in recent years would be brought onto the market. For the calculation of the effect of consumption change on health we constructed a multi-state life table model in which consumption of fruits and vegetables is linked to ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cancer of the oesophagus, stomach, colorectum, lung and breast. Uncertainty is quantified using Monte Carlo simulation. The reform would maximally increase the average consumption of fruits and vegetables by 1.80% (95% uncertainty interval 1.12-2.73), with an ensuing increase in life expectancy of 3.8 (2.2-5.9) days for men and 2.6 (1.5-4.2) days for women. The reform is also likely to decrease socio-economic inequalities in health. Ending EU withdrawal support for fruits and vegetables could result in a modest health gain for the Dutch population, though uncertainty in the estimates is high. A more comprehensive examination of the health effects of the EU agricultural policy could help to ensure health is duly considered in decision-making.

The impact of temperature changes on vector-borne disease transmission: Culicoides midges and bluetongue virus.

PubMed

Brand, Samuel P C; Keeling, Matt J

2017-03-01

It is a long recognized fact that climatic variations, especially temperature, affect the life history of biting insects. This is particularly important when considering vector-borne diseases, especially in temperate regions where climatic fluctuations are large. In general, it has been found that most biological processes occur at a faster rate at higher temperatures, although not all processes change in the same manner. This differential response to temperature, often considered as a trade-off between onward transmission and vector life expectancy, leads to the total transmission potential of an infected vector being maximized at intermediate temperatures. Here we go beyond the concept of a static optimal temperature, and mathematically model how realistic temperature variation impacts transmission dynamics. We use bluetongue virus (BTV), under UK temperatures and transmitted by Culicoides midges, as a well-studied example where temperature fluctuations play a major role. We first consider an optimal temperature profile that maximizes transmission, and show that this is characterized by a warm day to maximize biting followed by cooler weather to maximize vector life expectancy. This understanding can then be related to recorded representative temperature patterns for England, the UK region which has experienced BTV cases, allowing us to infer historical transmissibility of BTV, as well as using forecasts of climate change to predict future transmissibility. Our results show that when BTV first invaded northern Europe in 2006 the cumulative transmission intensity was higher than any point in the last 50 years, although with climate change such high risks are the expected norm by 2050. Such predictions would indicate that regular BTV epizootics should be expected in the UK in the future. © 2017 The Author(s).

On the role of budget sufficiency, cost efficiency, and uncertainty in species management

USGS Publications Warehouse

van der Burg, Max Post; Bly, Bartholomew B.; Vercauteren, Tammy; Grand, James B.; Tyre, Andrew J.

2014-01-01

Many conservation planning frameworks rely on the assumption that one should prioritize locations for management actions based on the highest predicted conservation value (i.e., abundance, occupancy). This strategy may underperform relative to the expected outcome if one is working with a limited budget or the predicted responses are uncertain. Yet, cost and tolerance to uncertainty rarely become part of species management plans. We used field data and predictive models to simulate a decision problem involving western burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) using prairie dog colonies (Cynomys ludovicianus) in western Nebraska. We considered 2 species management strategies: one maximized abundance and the other maximized abundance in a cost-efficient way. We then used heuristic decision algorithms to compare the 2 strategies in terms of how well they met a hypothetical conservation objective. Finally, we performed an info-gap decision analysis to determine how these strategies performed under different budget constraints and uncertainty about owl response. Our results suggested that when budgets were sufficient to manage all sites, the maximizing strategy was optimal and suggested investing more in expensive actions. This pattern persisted for restricted budgets up to approximately 50% of the sufficient budget. Below this budget, the cost-efficient strategy was optimal and suggested investing in cheaper actions. When uncertainty in the expected responses was introduced, the strategy that maximized abundance remained robust under a sufficient budget. Reducing the budget induced a slight trade-off between expected performance and robustness, which suggested that the most robust strategy depended both on one's budget and tolerance to uncertainty. Our results suggest that wildlife managers should explicitly account for budget limitations and be realistic about their expected levels of performance.

Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households

PubMed Central

Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim

2013-01-01

Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households’ expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households’ stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses. PMID:23997423

Shared temptations: An fMRI study of dishonest profit maximization.

PubMed

Simmank, Fabian

2017-12-01

A single case of a tempting-decision task involving financial gain is reported. The subject showed a prosocial Social Value Orientation and applied a profit-maximizing strategy. Differential brain activation patterns for self-serving and other-serving decisions were observed. Results provide new insight into the design of paradigms on bounded ethicality and self- and group-serving behavior. © 2017 The Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Planning Routes Across Economic Terrains: Maximizing Utility, Following Heuristics

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hang; Maddula, Soumya V.; Maloney, Laurence T.

2010-01-01

We designed an economic task to investigate human planning of routes in landscapes where travel in different kinds of terrain incurs different costs. Participants moved their finger across a touch screen from a starting point to a destination. The screen was divided into distinct kinds of terrain and travel within each kind of terrain imposed a cost proportional to distance traveled. We varied costs and spatial configurations of terrains and participants received fixed bonuses minus the total cost of the routes they chose. We first compared performance to a model maximizing gain. All but one of 12 participants failed to adopt least-cost routes and their failure to do so reduced their winnings by about 30% (median value). We tested in detail whether participants’ choices of routes satisfied three necessary conditions (heuristics) for a route to maximize gain. We report failures of one heuristic for 7 out of 12 participants. Last of all, we modeled human performance with the assumption that participants assign subjective utilities to costs and maximize utility. For 7 out 12 participants, the fitted utility function was an accelerating power function of actual cost and for the remaining 5, a decelerating power function. We discuss connections between utility aggregation in route planning and decision under risk. Our task could be adapted to investigate human strategy and optimality of route planning in full-scale landscapes. PMID:21833269

Prosocial preferences do not explain human cooperation in public-goods games

PubMed Central

Burton-Chellew, Maxwell N.; West, Stuart A.

2013-01-01

It has become an accepted paradigm that humans have “prosocial preferences” that lead to higher levels of cooperation than those that would maximize their personal financial gain. However, the existence of prosocial preferences has been inferred post hoc from the results of economic games, rather than with direct experimental tests. Here, we test how behavior in a public-goods game is influenced by knowledge of the consequences of actions for other players. We found that (i) individuals cooperate at similar levels, even when they are not informed that their behavior benefits others; (ii) an increased awareness of how cooperation benefits others leads to a reduction, rather than an increase, in the level of cooperation; and (iii) cooperation can be either lower or higher than expected, depending on experimental design. Overall, these results contradict the suggested role of the prosocial preferences hypothesis and show how the complexity of human behavior can lead to misleading conclusions from controlled laboratory experiments. PMID:23248298

The Arabidopsis Information Resource (TAIR): a comprehensive database and web-based information retrieval, analysis, and visualization system for a model plant

PubMed Central

Huala, Eva; Dickerman, Allan W.; Garcia-Hernandez, Margarita; Weems, Danforth; Reiser, Leonore; LaFond, Frank; Hanley, David; Kiphart, Donald; Zhuang, Mingzhe; Huang, Wen; Mueller, Lukas A.; Bhattacharyya, Debika; Bhaya, Devaki; Sobral, Bruno W.; Beavis, William; Meinke, David W.; Town, Christopher D.; Somerville, Chris; Rhee, Seung Yon

2001-01-01

Arabidopsis thaliana, a small annual plant belonging to the mustard family, is the subject of study by an estimated 7000 researchers around the world. In addition to the large body of genetic, physiological and biochemical data gathered for this plant, it will be the first higher plant genome to be completely sequenced, with completion expected at the end of the year 2000. The sequencing effort has been coordinated by an international collaboration, the Arabidopsis Genome Initiative (AGI). The rationale for intensive investigation of Arabidopsis is that it is an excellent model for higher plants. In order to maximize use of the knowledge gained about this plant, there is a need for a comprehensive database and information retrieval and analysis system that will provide user-friendly access to Arabidopsis information. This paper describes the initial steps we have taken toward realizing these goals in a project called The Arabidopsis Information Resource (TAIR) (www.arabidopsis.org). PMID:11125061

Prosocial preferences do not explain human cooperation in public-goods games.

PubMed

Burton-Chellew, Maxwell N; West, Stuart A

2013-01-02

It has become an accepted paradigm that humans have "prosocial preferences" that lead to higher levels of cooperation than those that would maximize their personal financial gain. However, the existence of prosocial preferences has been inferred post hoc from the results of economic games, rather than with direct experimental tests. Here, we test how behavior in a public-goods game is influenced by knowledge of the consequences of actions for other players. We found that (i) individuals cooperate at similar levels, even when they are not informed that their behavior benefits others; (ii) an increased awareness of how cooperation benefits others leads to a reduction, rather than an increase, in the level of cooperation; and (iii) cooperation can be either lower or higher than expected, depending on experimental design. Overall, these results contradict the suggested role of the prosocial preferences hypothesis and show how the complexity of human behavior can lead to misleading conclusions from controlled laboratory experiments.

Low- and High-Volume Water-Based Resistance Training Induces Similar Strength and Functional Capacity Improvements in Older Women: A Randomized Study.

PubMed

Reichert, Thaís; Delevatti, Rodrigo Sudatti; Prado, Alexandre Konig Garcia; Bagatini, Natália Carvalho; Simmer, Nicole Monticelli; Meinerz, Andressa Pellegrini; Barroso, Bruna Machado; Costa, Rochelle Rocha; Kanitz, Ana Carolina; Kruel, Luiz Fernando Martins

2018-03-27

Water-based resistance training (WRT) has been indicated to promote strength gains in elderly population. However, no study has compared different training strategies to identify the most efficient one. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of 3 WRT strategies on the strength and functional capacity of older women. In total, 36 women were randomly allocated to training groups: simple set of 30 seconds [1 × 30s; 66.41 (1.36) y; n = 12], multiple sets of 10 seconds [3 × 10s; 66.50 (1.43) y; n = 11], and simple set of 10 seconds [1 × 10s; 65.23 (1.09) y; n = 13]. Training lasted for 12 weeks. The maximal dynamic strength (in kilograms) and muscular endurance (number of repetitions) of knee extension, knee flexion, elbow flexion, and bench press, as well as functional capacity (number of repetitions), were evaluated. All types of training promoted similar gains in maximal dynamic strength of knee extension and flexion as well as elbow flexion. Only the 1 × 30s and 1 × 10s groups presented increments in bench press maximal strength. All 3 groups showed increases in muscular endurance in all exercises and functional capacity. WRT using long- or short-duration simple sets promotes the same gains in strength and functional capacity in older women as does WRT using multiple sets.

Adaptive multibeam phased array design for a Spacelab experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noji, T. T.; Fass, S.; Fuoco, A. M.; Wang, C. D.

1977-01-01

The parametric tradeoff analyses and design for an Adaptive Multibeam Phased Array (AMPA) for a Spacelab experiment are described. This AMPA Experiment System was designed with particular emphasis to maximize channel capacity and minimize implementation and cost impacts for future austere maritime and aeronautical users, operating with a low gain hemispherical coverage antenna element, low effective radiated power, and low antenna gain-to-system noise temperature ratio.

Representation of potential information gain to measure the price of anarchy on ISR activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz-Peña, Hector J.; Hirsch, Michael; Karwan, Mark; Nagi, Rakesh; Sudit, Moises

2013-05-01

One of the main technical challenges facing intelligence analysts today is effectively determining information gaps from huge amounts of collected data. Moreover, getting the right information to/from the right person (e.g., analyst, warfighter on the edge) at the right time in a distributed environment has been elusive to our military forces. Synchronization of Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) activities to maximize the efficient utilization of limited resources (both in quantity and capabilities) has become critically important to increase the accuracy and timeliness of overall information gain. Given this reality, we are interested in quantifying the degradation of solution quality (i.e., information gain) as a centralized system synchronizing ISR activities (from information gap identification to information collection and dissemination) moves to a more decentralized framework. This evaluation extends the concept of price of anarchy, a measure of the inefficiency of a system when agents maximize decisions without coordination, by considering different levels of decentralization. Our initial research representing the potential information gain in geospatial and time discretized spaces is presented. This potential information gain map can represent a consolidation of Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield products as input to automated ISR synchronization tools. Using the coordination of unmanned vehicles (UxVs) as an example, we developed a mathematical programming model for multi-perspective optimization in which each UxV develops its own fight plan to support mission objectives based only on its perspective of the environment (i.e., potential information gain map). Information is only exchanged when UxVs are part of the same communication network.

Interval-based reconstruction for uncertainty quantification in PET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharczak, Florentin; Loquin, Kevin; Buvat, Irène; Strauss, Olivier; Mariano-Goulart, Denis

2018-02-01

A new directed interval-based tomographic reconstruction algorithm, called non-additive interval based expectation maximization (NIBEM) is presented. It uses non-additive modeling of the forward operator that provides intervals instead of single-valued projections. The detailed approach is an extension of the maximum likelihood—expectation maximization algorithm based on intervals. The main motivation for this extension is that the resulting intervals have appealing properties for estimating the statistical uncertainty associated with the reconstructed activity values. After reviewing previously published theoretical concepts related to interval-based projectors, this paper describes the NIBEM algorithm and gives examples that highlight the properties and advantages of this interval valued reconstruction.

The benefits of social influence in optimized cultural markets.

PubMed

Abeliuk, Andrés; Berbeglia, Gerardo; Cebrian, Manuel; Van Hentenryck, Pascal

2015-01-01

Social influence has been shown to create significant unpredictability in cultural markets, providing one potential explanation why experts routinely fail at predicting commercial success of cultural products. As a result, social influence is often presented in a negative light. Here, we show the benefits of social influence for cultural markets. We present a policy that uses product quality, appeal, position bias and social influence to maximize expected profits in the market. Our computational experiments show that our profit-maximizing policy leverages social influence to produce significant performance benefits for the market, while our theoretical analysis proves that our policy outperforms in expectation any policy not displaying social signals. Our results contrast with earlier work which focused on showing the unpredictability and inequalities created by social influence. Not only do we show for the first time that, under our policy, dynamically showing consumers positive social signals increases the expected profit of the seller in cultural markets. We also show that, in reasonable settings, our profit-maximizing policy does not introduce significant unpredictability and identifies "blockbusters". Overall, these results shed new light on the nature of social influence and how it can be leveraged for the benefits of the market.

Optimal Investment Under Transaction Costs: A Threshold Rebalanced Portfolio Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tunc, Sait; Donmez, Mehmet Ali; Kozat, Suleyman Serdar

2013-06-01

We study optimal investment in a financial market having a finite number of assets from a signal processing perspective. We investigate how an investor should distribute capital over these assets and when he should reallocate the distribution of the funds over these assets to maximize the cumulative wealth over any investment period. In particular, we introduce a portfolio selection algorithm that maximizes the expected cumulative wealth in i.i.d. two-asset discrete-time markets where the market levies proportional transaction costs in buying and selling stocks. We achieve this using "threshold rebalanced portfolios", where trading occurs only if the portfolio breaches certain thresholds. Under the assumption that the relative price sequences have log-normal distribution from the Black-Scholes model, we evaluate the expected wealth under proportional transaction costs and find the threshold rebalanced portfolio that achieves the maximal expected cumulative wealth over any investment period. Our derivations can be readily extended to markets having more than two stocks, where these extensions are pointed out in the paper. As predicted from our derivations, we significantly improve the achieved wealth over portfolio selection algorithms from the literature on historical data sets.

Matching Pupils and Teachers to Maximize Expected Outcomes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ward, Joe H., Jr.; And Others

To achieve a good teacher-pupil match, it is necessary (1) to predict the learning outcomes that will result when each student is instructed by each teacher, (2) to use the predicted performance to compute an Optimality Index for each teacher-pupil combination to indicate the quality of each combination toward maximizing learning for all students,…

Longevity in Slovenia: Past and potential gains in life expectancy by age and causes of death.

PubMed

Lotrič Dolinar, Aleša; Došenović Bonča, Petra; Sambt, Jože

2017-06-01

In Slovenia, longevity is increasing rapidly. From 1997 to 2014, life expectancy at birth increased by 7 and 5 years for men and women, respectively. This paper explores how this gain in life expectancy at birth can be attributed to reduced mortality from five major groups of causes of death by 5-year age groups. It also estimates potential future gains in life expectancy at birth. The importance of the five major causes of death was analysed by cause-elimination life tables. The total elimination of individual causes of death and a partial hypothetical adjustment of mortality to Spanish levels were analysed, along with age and cause decomposition (Pollard). During the 1997-2014 period, the increase in life expectancy at birth was due to lower mortality from circulatory diseases (ages above 60, both genders), as well as from lower mortality from neoplasms (ages above 50 years) and external causes (between 20 and 50 years) for men. However, considering the potential future gains in life expectancy at birth, by far the strongest effect can be attributed to lower mortality due to circulatory diseases for both genders. If Spanish mortality rates were reached, life expectancy at birth would increase by more than 2 years, again mainly because of lower mortality from circulatory diseases in very old ages. Life expectancy analyses can improve evidence-based decision-making and allocation of resources among different prevention programmes and measures for more effective disease management that can also reduce the economic burden of chronic diseases.

Impact of Pregnancy-Related Deaths on Female Life Expectancy in Zambia: Application of Life Table Techniques to Census Data

PubMed Central

Banda, Richard; Sandøy, Ingvild Fossgard; Fylkesnes, Knut; Janssen, Fanny

2015-01-01

Introduction Since 2000, the world has been coalesced around efforts to reduce maternal mortality. However, few studies have estimated the significance of eliminating maternal deaths on female life expectancy. We estimated, based on census data, the potential gains in female life expectancy assuming complete elimination of pregnancy-related mortality in Zambia. Methods We used data on all-cause and pregnancy-related deaths of females aged 15–49 reported in the Zambia 2010 census, and evaluated, adjusted and smoothed them using existing and verified techniques. We used associated single decrement life tables, assuming complete elimination of pregnancy-related deaths to estimate the potential gains in female life expectancy at birth, at age 15, and over the ages 15–49. We compared these gains with the gains from eliminating deaths from accidents, injury, violence and suicide. Results Complete elimination of pregnancy-related deaths would extend life expectancy at birth among Zambian women by 1.35 years and life expectancy at age 15 by 1.65 years. In rural areas, this would be 1.69 years and 2.19 years, respectively, and in urban areas, 0.78 years and 0.85 years. An additional 0.72 years would be spent in the reproductive age group 15–49; 1.00 years in rural areas and 0.35 years in urban areas. Eliminating deaths from accidents, injury, suicide and violence among women aged 15–49 would cumulatively contribute 0.55 years to female life expectancy at birth. Conclusion Eliminating pregnancy-related mortality would extend female life expectancy in Zambia substantially, with more gains among adolescents and females in rural areas. The application of life table techniques to census data proved very valuable, although rigorous evaluation and adjustment of reported deaths and age was necessary to attain plausible estimates. The collection of detailed high quality cause-specific mortality data in future censuses is indispensable. PMID:26513160

Ecological neighborhoods as a framework for umbrella species selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuber, Erica F.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

2018-01-01

Umbrella species are typically chosen because they are expected to confer protection for other species assumed to have similar ecological requirements. Despite its popularity and substantial history, the value of the umbrella species concept has come into question because umbrella species chosen using heuristic methods, such as body or home range size, are not acting as adequate proxies for the metrics of interest: species richness or population abundance in a multi-species community for which protection is sought. How species associate with habitat across ecological scales has important implications for understanding population size and species richness, and therefore may be a better proxy for choosing an umbrella species. We determined the spatial scales of ecological neighborhoods important for predicting abundance of 8 potential umbrella species breeding in Nebraska using Bayesian latent indicator scale selection in N-mixture models accounting for imperfect detection. We compare the conservation value measured as collective avian abundance under different umbrella species selected following commonly used criteria and selected based on identifying spatial land cover characteristics within ecological neighborhoods that maximize collective abundance. Using traditional criteria to select an umbrella species resulted in sub-maximal expected collective abundance in 86% of cases compared to selecting an umbrella species based on land cover characteristics that maximized collective abundance directly. We conclude that directly assessing the expected quantitative outcomes, rather than ecological proxies, is likely the most efficient method to maximize the potential for conservation success under the umbrella species concept.

GeneLab: Open Science For Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Galazka, Jonathan

2018-01-01

The NASA GeneLab project capitalizes on multi-omic technologies to maximize the return on spaceflight experiments. The GeneLab project houses spaceflight and spaceflight-relevant multi-omics data in a publicly accessible data commons, and collaborates with NASA-funded principal investigators to maximize the omics data from spaceflight and spaceflight-relevant experiments. I will discuss the current status of GeneLab and give specific examples of how the GeneLab data system has been used to gain insight into how biology responds to spaceflight conditions.

Integration of membrane distillation into traditional salt farming method: Process development and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hizam, S.; Bilad, M. R.; Putra, Z. A.

2017-10-01

Farmers still practice the traditional salt farming in many regions, particularly in Indonesia. This archaic method not only produces low yield and poor salt quality, it is also laborious. Furthermore, the farming locations typically have poor access to fresh water and are far away from electricity grid, which restrict upgrade to a more advanced technology for salt production. This paper proposes a new concept of salt harvesting method that improves the salt yield and at the same time facilitates recovery of fresh water from seawater. The new concept integrates solar powered membrane distillation (MD) and photovoltaic cells to drive the pumping. We performed basic solar still experiments to quantify the heat flux received by a pond. The data were used as insight for designing the proposed concept, particularly on operational strategy and the most effective way to integrate MD. After the conceptual design had been developed, we formulated mass and energy balance to estimate the performance of the proposed concept. Based on our data and design, it is expected that the system would improve the yield and quality of the salt production, maximizing fresh water harvesting, and eventually provides economical gain for salt farmers hence improving their quality of life. The key performance can only be measured via experiment using gain output ratio as performance indicator, which will be done in a future study.

Automated design and optimization of flexible booster autopilots via linear programming. Volume 2: User's manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hauser, F. D.; Szollosi, G. D.; Lakin, W. S.

1972-01-01

COEBRA, the Computerized Optimization of Elastic Booster Autopilots, is an autopilot design program. The bulk of the design criteria is presented in the form of minimum allowed gain/phase stability margins. COEBRA has two optimization phases: (1) a phase to maximize stability margins; and (2) a phase to optimize structural bending moment load relief capability in the presence of minimum requirements on gain/phase stability margins.

FOREX Trades: Can the Takens Algorithm Help to Obtain Steady Profit at Investment Reallocations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, V. Yu.; Tribelsky, M. I.

2015-12-01

We report our preliminary results of application of the Takens algorithm to build a FOREX trade strategy, resulting in a steady long-time gain for a trader. The actual historical rates for pair EUR vs. USD are used. The values of various parameters of the problem including the "stop loss" and "take profit" thresholds are optimized to provide the maximal gain during the training period. Then, these values are employed for trades. We have succeeded to get the steady gain, if the spread is neglected. It proves that the FOREX market is predictable.

Universality of optimal measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarrach, Rolf; Vidal, Guifré

1999-11-01

We present optimal and minimal measurements on identical copies of an unknown state of a quantum bit when the quality of measuring strategies is quantified with the gain of information (Kullback-or mutual information-of probability distributions). We also show that the maximal gain of information occurs, among isotropic priors, when the state is known to be pure. Universality of optimal measurements follows from our results: using the fidelity or the gain of information, two different figures of merits, leads to exactly the same conclusions for isotropic distributions. We finally investigate the optimal capacity of N copies of an unknown state as a quantum channel of information.

Expectancy of Therapeutic Gain: An Empirical and Conceptual Critique

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilkins, Wallace

1973-01-01

The client's expectancy of improvement is regarded as an explanatory construct accounting, in part, for actual psychotherapeutic improvement. Issues involving the conditions under which expectancy effects have been demonstrated, the circular definition of expectancy, the attribution of causality to expectancy, expectancy versus prediction, and the…

Foraging decisions of bison for rapid energy gains can explain the relative risk to neighboring plants in complex swards.

PubMed

Courant, Sabrina; Fortin, Daniel

2010-06-01

Herbivores commonly base their foraging decisions not only on the intrinsic characteristics of plants, but also on the attributes of neighboring species. Although herbivores commonly orient their food choices toward the maximization of energy intake, the impact of such choices on neighboring plants remains largely unexplored. We evaluated whether foraging decisions by herbivores aiming at a rapid intake of digestible energy could explain multiple neighboring effects in complex swards. Specifically, we assessed how spatial patterns of occurrence of Carex atherodes, a highly profitable sedge species, could control the risk of bison (Bison bison) herbivory for seven other plant species. The foraging behavior of 70 free-ranging bison was evaluated in their natural environment during summer, and then related to plant characteristics. We used this information to estimate the instantaneous intake rate of digestible energy at individual feeding stations. We found that neighbor contrast defense and associational susceptibility can both be explained by simple foraging rules of energy maximization. Energy gains were higher when C. atherodes was consumed while avoiding the species for which we detected neighbor contrast defense. The lower intake rate associated with their consumption was due to an increase in handling time caused by their small size relative to C. atherodes. Bison also had higher energy gains by consuming instead of avoiding the plant species that experienced associational susceptibility. Because most of these plants were at least as tall as C. atherodes, their presence increased the heterogeneity of the grazed stratum. Avoiding their consumption increased handling time thereby reducing the instantaneous rate of energy intake. Overall, we found that bison adjust their fine-scale foraging decisions to vertical and horizontal sward structures in a way that maximizes their energy intake rate. Energy maximization principles thus provide a valuable framework to evaluate a broad-range of neighboring effects for prey faced with generalist consumers.

Text Classification for Intelligent Portfolio Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-05-01

years including nearest neighbor classification [15], naive Bayes with EM (Ex- pectation Maximization) [11] [13], Winnow with active learning [10... Active Learning and Expectation Maximization (EM). In particular, active learning is used to actively select documents for labeling, then EM assigns...generalization with active learning . Machine Learning, 15(2):201–221, 1994. [3] I. Dagan and P. Engelson. Committee-based sampling for training

Maximizing Lumen Gain With Directional Atherectomy.

PubMed

Stanley, Gregory A; Winscott, John G

2016-08-01

To describe the use of a low-pressure balloon inflation (LPBI) technique to delineate intraluminal plaque and guide directional atherectomy in order to maximize lumen gain and achieve procedure success. The technique is illustrated in a 77-year-old man with claudication who underwent superficial femoral artery revascularization using a HawkOne directional atherectomy catheter. A standard angioplasty balloon was inflated to 1 to 2 atm during live fluoroscopy to create a 3-dimensional "lumenogram" of the target lesion. Directional atherectomy was performed only where plaque impinged on the balloon at a specific fluoroscopic orientation. The results of the LPBI technique were corroborated with multimodality diagnostic imaging, including digital subtraction angiography, intravascular ultrasound, and intra-arterial pressure measurements. With the LPBI technique, directional atherectomy can routinely achieve <10% residual stenosis, as illustrated in this case, thereby broadly supporting a no-stent approach to lower extremity endovascular revascularization. © The Author(s) 2016.

Between self-interest and reciprocity: the social bright side of self-control failure.

PubMed

Halali, Eliran; Bereby-Meyer, Yoella; Meiran, Nachshon

2014-04-01

Despite the importance of reciprocity in many areas of social life, little is known about possible factors affecting it and its interplay with the self-interest motive to maximize one's own gains. In this study, we examined the role of cognitive control in reciprocal behavior to determine whether it is a deliberate and controlled act or whether the behavior is evoked automatically. In Experiment 1, depletion of cognitive control resources increased the rate of rejected unfair offers in the ultimatum game despite associated financial loss. In Experiments 2A and 2B, using 2 depletion manipulations, we extended these results and showed that depleted participants returned more money in response to highly trusting investments during the trust game. These results suggest that reciprocity considerations are actively suppressed when attempting to maximize one's own gains. When cognitive control is limited, this suppression becomes difficult, and consequently reciprocity considerations prevail.

Hydroeconomic optimization of integrated water management and transfers under stochastic surface water supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Tingju; Marques, Guilherme Fernandes; Lund, Jay R.

2015-05-01

Efficient reallocation and conjunctive operation of existing water supplies is gaining importance as demands grow, competitions among users intensify, and new supplies become more costly. This paper analyzes the roles and benefits of conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater and market-based water transfers in an integrated regional water system where agricultural and urban water users coordinate supply and demand management based on supply reliability and economic values of water. Agricultural users optimize land and water use for annual and perennial crops to maximize farm income, while urban users choose short-term and long-term water conservation actions to maintain reliability and minimize costs. The temporal order of these decisions is represented in a two-stage optimization that maximizes the net expected benefits of crop production, urban conservation and water management including conjunctive use and water transfers. Long-term decisions are in the first stage and short-term decisions are in a second stage based on probabilities of water availability events. Analytical and numerical analyses are made. Results show that conjunctive use and water transfers can substantially stabilize farmer's income and reduce system costs by reducing expensive urban water conservation or construction. Water transfers can equalize marginal values of water across users, while conjunctive use minimizes water marginal value differences in time. Model results are useful for exploring the integration of different water demands and supplies through water transfers, conjunctive use, and conservation, providing valuable insights for improving system management.

Social and psychological challenges of poker.

PubMed

Siler, Kyle

2010-09-01

Poker is a competitive, social game of skill and luck, which presents players with numerous challenging strategic and interpersonal decisions. The adaptation of poker into a game played over the internet provides the unprecedented opportunity to quantitatively analyze extremely large numbers of hands and players. This paper analyzes roughly twenty-seven million hands played online in small-stakes, medium-stakes and high-stakes games. Using PokerTracker software, statistics are generated to (a) gauge the types of strategies utilized by players (i.e. the 'strategic demography') at each level and (b) examine the various payoffs associated with different strategies at varying levels of play. The results show that competitive edges attenuate as one moves up levels, and tight-aggressive strategies--which tend to be the most remunerative--become more prevalent. Further, payoffs for different combinations of cards, varies between levels, showing how strategic payoffs are derived from competitive interactions. Smaller-stakes players also have more difficulty appropriately weighting incentive structures with frequent small gains and occasional large losses. Consequently, the relationship between winning a large proportion of hands and profitability is negative, and is strongest in small-stakes games. These variations reveal a meta-game of rationality and psychology which underlies the card game. Adopting risk-neutrality to maximize expected value, aggression and appropriate mental accounting, are cognitive burdens on players, and underpin the rationality work--reconfiguring of personal preferences and goals--players engage into be competitive, and maximize their winning and profit chances.

Probing reward function in posttraumatic stress disorder: expectancy and satisfaction with monetary gains and losses.

PubMed

Hopper, James W; Pitman, Roger K; Su, Zhaohui; Heyman, Gene M; Lasko, Natasha B; Macklin, Michael L; Orr, Scott P; Lukas, Scott E; Elman, Igor

2008-08-01

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) may be associated with dysfunctional reward processing. The present study assessed for such dysfunction in both the expectancy and outcome phases of reward processing. Male Vietnam veterans with (n=15) and without (n=11) combat-related PTSD were administered a wheel of fortune-type gambling task. Self-reported ratings of expectancy and satisfaction were collected respectively before and after each experience of monetary gain or loss. PTSD participants reported both lower expectancy of reward and lower satisfaction with reward when it was received. The latter result was manifest in a failure of PTSD participants to show the greater satisfaction that normally accompanies rewards received under conditions of low expectancy. These results suggest reward function impairment in PTSD related to expectancy, satisfaction, and the expectancy-satisfaction relationship.

Increases in adult life expectancy in rural South Africa: valuing the scale-up of HIV treatment

PubMed Central

Bor, Jacob; Herbst, Abraham J; Newell, Marie-Louise; Bärnighausen, Till

2013-01-01

The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is expected to raise adult life expectancy in populations with high HIV prevalence. Using data from a population cohort of over 101,000 individuals in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, we measured changes in adult life expectancy for 2000–2011. In 2003, the year before ART became available in the public sector health system, adult life expectancy was 49.2 years; by 2011, adult life expectancy had increased to 60.5 years – an 11.3-year gain. Based on standard monetary valuation of life, the survival benefits of ART far outweigh the costs of providing treatment in this community. These gains in adult life expectancy signify the social value of ART and have implications for investment decisions of individuals, governments, and donors. PMID:23430655

Replica analysis for the duality of the portfolio optimization problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinzato, Takashi

2016-11-01

In the present paper, the primal-dual problem consisting of the investment risk minimization problem and the expected return maximization problem in the mean-variance model is discussed using replica analysis. As a natural extension of the investment risk minimization problem under only a budget constraint that we analyzed in a previous study, we herein consider a primal-dual problem in which the investment risk minimization problem with budget and expected return constraints is regarded as the primal problem, and the expected return maximization problem with budget and investment risk constraints is regarded as the dual problem. With respect to these optimal problems, we analyze a quenched disordered system involving both of these optimization problems using the approach developed in statistical mechanical informatics and confirm that both optimal portfolios can possess the primal-dual structure. Finally, the results of numerical simulations are shown to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Replica analysis for the duality of the portfolio optimization problem.

PubMed

Shinzato, Takashi

2016-11-01

In the present paper, the primal-dual problem consisting of the investment risk minimization problem and the expected return maximization problem in the mean-variance model is discussed using replica analysis. As a natural extension of the investment risk minimization problem under only a budget constraint that we analyzed in a previous study, we herein consider a primal-dual problem in which the investment risk minimization problem with budget and expected return constraints is regarded as the primal problem, and the expected return maximization problem with budget and investment risk constraints is regarded as the dual problem. With respect to these optimal problems, we analyze a quenched disordered system involving both of these optimization problems using the approach developed in statistical mechanical informatics and confirm that both optimal portfolios can possess the primal-dual structure. Finally, the results of numerical simulations are shown to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

How many years of life did the fall of the Berlin Wall add? A projection of East German life expectancy.

PubMed

Vogt, Tobias C

2013-01-01

In the two decades since reunification, East Germans have experienced a large increase in life expectancy and a convergence with the West German mortality level. This gain in life expectancy appears even more impressive if we assume a different scenario in which the Berlin Wall did not fall, and the old East Germany still existed. This analysis takes into account that East German mortality would not have remained static without reunification. Thus, it shows how many years of life expectancy were actually added by the fall of the Berlin Wall. The analysis shows the improvements for single age groups by projecting life expectancy based on mortality levels during the 1970s and 1980s using the Lee-Carter method. I use national-level data for both sexes for East Germany before reunification. I find that, without reunification, current life expectancy at birth among East Germans would be 4.0 years lower for females and 5.7 years lower for males. I also show that older East Germans were the main demographic beneficiaries of reunification. Female and male mortality improvements in the age groups above 60 contributed up to 80% to the actual gains in life expectancy. Had the Berlin Wall not fallen, East German mortality would not have remained static but improved at a far slower rate. Thus, this counterfactual approach shows for the first time how many years of life were actually gained by reunification and how much of these gains were attributable to mortality improvements among the elderly. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Leisure Time Physical Activity of Moderate to Vigorous Intensity and Mortality: A Large Pooled Cohort Analysis

PubMed Central

Moore, Steven C.; Patel, Alpa V.; Matthews, Charles E.; Berrington de Gonzalez, Amy; Park, Yikyung; Katki, Hormuzd A.; Linet, Martha S.; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Visvanathan, Kala; Helzlsouer, Kathy J.; Thun, Michael; Gapstur, Susan M.; Hartge, Patricia; Lee, I-Min

2012-01-01

Background Leisure time physical activity reduces the risk of premature mortality, but the years of life expectancy gained at different levels remains unclear. Our objective was to determine the years of life gained after age 40 associated with various levels of physical activity, both overall and according to body mass index (BMI) groups, in a large pooled analysis. Methods and Findings We examined the association of leisure time physical activity with mortality during follow-up in pooled data from six prospective cohort studies in the National Cancer Institute Cohort Consortium, comprising 654,827 individuals, 21–90 y of age. Physical activity was categorized by metabolic equivalent hours per week (MET-h/wk). Life expectancies and years of life gained/lost were calculated using direct adjusted survival curves (for participants 40+ years of age), with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) derived by bootstrap. The study includes a median 10 y of follow-up and 82,465 deaths. A physical activity level of 0.1–3.74 MET-h/wk, equivalent to brisk walking for up to 75 min/wk, was associated with a gain of 1.8 (95% CI: 1.6–2.0) y in life expectancy relative to no leisure time activity (0 MET-h/wk). Higher levels of physical activity were associated with greater gains in life expectancy, with a gain of 4.5 (95% CI: 4.3–4.7) y at the highest level (22.5+ MET-h/wk, equivalent to brisk walking for 450+ min/wk). Substantial gains were also observed in each BMI group. In joint analyses, being active (7.5+ MET-h/wk) and normal weight (BMI 18.5–24.9) was associated with a gain of 7.2 (95% CI: 6.5–7.9) y of life compared to being inactive (0 MET-h/wk) and obese (BMI 35.0+). A limitation was that physical activity and BMI were ascertained by self report. Conclusions More leisure time physical activity was associated with longer life expectancy across a range of activity levels and BMI groups. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23139642

Endurance Training Intensity Does Not Mediate Interference to Maximal Lower-Body Strength Gain during Short-Term Concurrent Training

PubMed Central

Fyfe, Jackson J.; Bartlett, Jonathan D.; Hanson, Erik D.; Stepto, Nigel K.; Bishop, David J.

2016-01-01

We determined the effect of concurrent training incorporating either high-intensity interval training (HIT) or moderate-intensity continuous training (MICT) on maximal strength, counter-movement jump (CMJ) performance, and body composition adaptations, compared with single-mode resistance training (RT). Twenty-three recreationally-active males (mean ± SD: age, 29.6 ± 5.5 y; V˙O2peak, 44 ± 11 mL kg−1·min−1) underwent 8 weeks (3 sessions·wk−1) of either: (1) HIT combined with RT (HIT+RT group, n = 8), (2) work-matched MICT combined with RT (MICT+RT group, n = 7), or (3) RT performed alone (RT group, n = 8). Measures of aerobic capacity, maximal (1-RM) strength, CMJ performance and body composition (DXA) were obtained before (PRE), mid-way (MID), and after (POST) training. Maximal (one-repetition maximum [1-RM]) leg press strength was improved from PRE to POST for RT (mean change ± 90% confidence interval; 38.5 ± 8.5%; effect size [ES] ± 90% confidence interval; 1.26 ± 0.24; P < 0.001), HIT+RT (28.7 ± 5.3%; ES, 1.17 ± 0.19; P < 0.001), and MICT+RT (27.5 ± 4.6%, ES, 0.81 ± 0.12; P < 0.001); however, the magnitude of this change was greater for RT vs. both HIT+RT (7.4 ± 8.7%; ES, 0.40 ± 0.40) and MICT+RT (8.2 ± 9.9%; ES, 0.60 ± 0.45). There were no substantial between-group differences in 1-RM bench press strength gain. RT induced greater changes in peak CMJ force vs. HIT+RT (6.8 ± 4.5%; ES, 0.41 ± 0.28) and MICT+RT (9.9 ± 11.2%; ES, 0.54 ± 0.65), and greater improvements in maximal CMJ rate of force development (RFD) vs. HIT+RT (24.1 ± 26.1%; ES, 0.72 ± 0.88). Lower-body lean mass was similarly increased for RT (4.1 ± 2.0%; ES; 0.33 ± 0.16; P = 0.023) and MICT+RT (3.6 ± 2.4%; ES; 0.45 ± 0.30; P = 0.052); however, this change was attenuated for HIT+RT (1.8 ± 1.6%; ES; 0.13 ± 0.12; P = 0.069). We conclude that concurrent training incorporating either HIT or work-matched MICT similarly attenuates improvements in maximal lower-body strength and indices of CMJ performance compared with RT performed alone. This suggests endurance training intensity is not a critical mediator of interference to maximal strength gain during short-term concurrent training. PMID:27857692

Endurance Training Intensity Does Not Mediate Interference to Maximal Lower-Body Strength Gain during Short-Term Concurrent Training.

PubMed

Fyfe, Jackson J; Bartlett, Jonathan D; Hanson, Erik D; Stepto, Nigel K; Bishop, David J

2016-01-01

We determined the effect of concurrent training incorporating either high-intensity interval training (HIT) or moderate-intensity continuous training (MICT) on maximal strength, counter-movement jump (CMJ) performance, and body composition adaptations, compared with single-mode resistance training (RT). Twenty-three recreationally-active males (mean ± SD: age, 29.6 ± 5.5 y; [Formula: see text], 44 ± 11 mL kg -1 ·min -1 ) underwent 8 weeks (3 sessions·wk -1 ) of either: (1) HIT combined with RT (HIT+RT group, n = 8), (2) work-matched MICT combined with RT (MICT+RT group, n = 7), or (3) RT performed alone (RT group, n = 8). Measures of aerobic capacity, maximal (1-RM) strength, CMJ performance and body composition (DXA) were obtained before (PRE), mid-way (MID), and after (POST) training. Maximal (one-repetition maximum [1-RM]) leg press strength was improved from PRE to POST for RT (mean change ± 90% confidence interval; 38.5 ± 8.5%; effect size [ES] ± 90% confidence interval; 1.26 ± 0.24; P < 0.001), HIT+RT (28.7 ± 5.3%; ES, 1.17 ± 0.19; P < 0.001), and MICT+RT (27.5 ± 4.6%, ES, 0.81 ± 0.12; P < 0.001); however, the magnitude of this change was greater for RT vs. both HIT+RT (7.4 ± 8.7%; ES, 0.40 ± 0.40) and MICT+RT (8.2 ± 9.9%; ES, 0.60 ± 0.45). There were no substantial between-group differences in 1-RM bench press strength gain. RT induced greater changes in peak CMJ force vs. HIT+RT (6.8 ± 4.5%; ES, 0.41 ± 0.28) and MICT+RT (9.9 ± 11.2%; ES, 0.54 ± 0.65), and greater improvements in maximal CMJ rate of force development (RFD) vs. HIT+RT (24.1 ± 26.1%; ES, 0.72 ± 0.88). Lower-body lean mass was similarly increased for RT (4.1 ± 2.0%; ES; 0.33 ± 0.16; P = 0.023) and MICT+RT (3.6 ± 2.4%; ES; 0.45 ± 0.30; P = 0.052); however, this change was attenuated for HIT+RT (1.8 ± 1.6%; ES; 0.13 ± 0.12; P = 0.069). We conclude that concurrent training incorporating either HIT or work-matched MICT similarly attenuates improvements in maximal lower-body strength and indices of CMJ performance compared with RT performed alone. This suggests endurance training intensity is not a critical mediator of interference to maximal strength gain during short-term concurrent training.

Inter-individual variation in nutrient balancing in the honeybee (Apis mellifera).

PubMed

Reade, Abbie J; Naug, Dhruba

2016-12-01

The Geometric Framework approach in nutritional ecology postulates that animals attempt to balance the consumption of different nutrients rather than simply maximizing energetic gain. The intake target with respect to each nutrient maximizes fitness in a specific dimension and any difference between individuals in intake target therefore represents alternative behavioral and fitness maximization strategies. Nutritional interactions are a central component of all social groups and any inter-individual variation in intake target should therefore have a significant influence on social dynamics. Using the honeybee colony as an experimental model, we quantified differences in the carbohydrate intake target of individual foragers using a capillary feeder (CAFE) assay. Our results show that the bees did not simply maximize their net energetic gain, but combined sugar and water in their diet in a way that brought them to an intake target equivalent to a 33% sucrose solution. Although the mean intake target with respect to the nutrients sucrose and water was the same under different food choice regimens, there was significant inter-individual variation in intake target and the manner in which individuals reached this target, a variation which suggests different levels of tolerance to nutrient imbalance. We discuss our results in the context of how colony performance may be influenced by the different nutrient balancing strategies of individual members and how such nutritional constraints could have contributed to the evolution of sociality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The management of patients with T1 adenocarcinoma of the low rectum: a decision analysis.

PubMed

Johnston, Calvin F; Tomlinson, George; Temple, Larissa K; Baxter, Nancy N

2013-04-01

Decision making for patients with T1 adenocarcinoma of the low rectum, when treatment options are limited to a transanal local excision or abdominoperineal resection, is challenging. The aim of this study was to develop a contemporary decision analysis to assist patients and clinicians in balancing the goals of maximizing life expectancy and quality of life in this situation. We constructed a Markov-type microsimulation in open-source software. Recurrence rates and quality-of-life parameters were elicited by systematic literature reviews. Sensitivity analyses were performed on key model parameters. Our base case for analysis was a 65-year-old man with low-lying T1N0 rectal cancer. We determined the sensitivity of our model for sex, age up to 80, and T stage. The main outcome measured was quality-adjusted life-years. In the base case, selecting transanal local excision over abdominoperineal resection resulted in a loss of 0.53 years of life expectancy but a gain of 0.97 quality-adjusted life-years. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated a health state utility value threshold for permanent colostomy of 0.93. This value ranged from 0.88 to 1.0 based on tumor recurrence risk. There were no other model sensitivities. Some model parameter estimates were based on weak data. In our model, transanal local excision was found to be the preferable approach for most patients. An abdominoperineal resection has a 3.5% longer life expectancy, but this advantage is lost when the quality-of-life reduction reported by stoma patients is weighed in. The minority group in whom abdominoperineal resection is preferred are those who are unwilling to sacrifice 7% of their life expectancy to avoid a permanent stoma. This is estimated to be approximately 25% of all patients. The threshold increases to 12% of life expectancy in high-risk tumors. No other factors are found to be relevant to the decision.

When Does Reward Maximization Lead to Matching Law?

PubMed Central

Sakai, Yutaka; Fukai, Tomoki

2008-01-01

What kind of strategies subjects follow in various behavioral circumstances has been a central issue in decision making. In particular, which behavioral strategy, maximizing or matching, is more fundamental to animal's decision behavior has been a matter of debate. Here, we prove that any algorithm to achieve the stationary condition for maximizing the average reward should lead to matching when it ignores the dependence of the expected outcome on subject's past choices. We may term this strategy of partial reward maximization “matching strategy”. Then, this strategy is applied to the case where the subject's decision system updates the information for making a decision. Such information includes subject's past actions or sensory stimuli, and the internal storage of this information is often called “state variables”. We demonstrate that the matching strategy provides an easy way to maximize reward when combined with the exploration of the state variables that correctly represent the crucial information for reward maximization. Our results reveal for the first time how a strategy to achieve matching behavior is beneficial to reward maximization, achieving a novel insight into the relationship between maximizing and matching. PMID:19030101

Managing Space Situational Awareness Using the Space Surveillance Network

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-14

This  report examines  the  use   of  utility metrics  from  two  forms  of  expected  information  gain for each object‐sensor pair as well as the...examines the use of utility metrics from two forms of expected information gain for each object-sensor pair as well as the approximated stability of the...estimation errors in order to work towards a tasking strategy. The information theoretic approaches use the calculation of Fisher information gain

Optimizing chirped laser pulse parameters for electron acceleration in vacuum

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akhyani, Mina; Jahangiri, Fazel; Niknam, Ali Reza

2015-11-14

Electron dynamics in the field of a chirped linearly polarized laser pulse is investigated. Variations of electron energy gain versus chirp parameter, time duration, and initial phase of laser pulse are studied. Based on maximizing laser pulse asymmetry, a numerical optimization procedure is presented, which leads to the elimination of rapid fluctuations of gain versus the chirp parameter. Instead, a smooth variation is observed that considerably reduces the accuracy required for experimentally adjusting the chirp parameter.

Attitudes to participating in a birth cohort study, views from a multiethnic population: a qualitative study using focus groups.

PubMed

Garg, Neeru; Round, Thomas P; Daker-White, Gavin; Bower, Peter; Griffiths, Chris J

2017-02-01

Recruitment to birth cohort studies is a challenge. Few studies have addressed the attitudes of women about taking part in birth cohort studies particularly those from ethnic minority groups. To seek the views of people from diverse ethnic backgrounds about participation in a proposed birth cohort examining the impact of infections. Eight focus groups of pregnant women and mothers of young children took place in GP surgeries and community centres in an ethnically diverse area of east London. Purposeful sampling and language support ensured representation of people from ethnic minority groups. Audio recordings were taken and transcripts were analysed using the Framework approach. The views of participants about taking part in the proposed birth cohort study, in particular concerning incentives to taking part, disincentives and attitudes to consenting children. There was more convergence of opinion than divergence across groups. Altruism, perceived health gains of participating and financial rewards were motivating factors for most women. Worries about causing harm to their child, inconvenience, time pressure and blood sample taking as well as a perceived lack of health gains were disincentives to most. Mistrust of researchers did not appear to be a significant barrier. The study indicates that ethnicity and other demographic factors influence attitudes to participation. To recruit better, birth cohort studies should incorporate financial and health gains as rewards for participation, promote the altruistic goals of research, give assurances regarding the safety of the participating children and sensitive data, avoid discomfort and maximize convenience. Ethnicity influences attitudes to participation in many ways, and researchers should explore these factors in their target population. © 2016 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Thermodynamical interpretation of an adaptive walk on a Mt. Fuji-type fitness landscape: Einstein relation-like formula holds in a stochastic evolution.

PubMed

Aita, Takuyo; Husimi, Yuzuru

2003-11-21

We have theoretically studied the statistical properties of adaptive walks (or hill-climbing) on a Mt. Fuji-type fitness landscape in the multi-dimensional sequence space through mathematical analysis and computer simulation. The adaptive walk is characterized by the "mutation distance" d as the step-width of the walker and the "population size" N as the number of randomly generated d-fold point mutants to be screened. In addition to the fitness W, we introduced the following quantities analogous to thermodynamical concepts: "free fitness" G(W) is identical with W+T x S(W), where T is the "evolutionary temperature" T infinity square root of d/lnN and S(W) is the entropy as a function of W, and the "evolutionary force" X is identical with d(G(W)/T)/dW, that is caused by the mutation and selection pressure. It is known that a single adaptive walker rapidly climbs on the fitness landscape up to the stationary state where a "mutation-selection-random drift balance" is kept. In our interpretation, the walker tends to the maximal free fitness state, driven by the evolutionary force X. Our major findings are as follows: First, near the stationary point W*, the "climbing rate" J as the expected fitness change per generation is described by J approximately L x X with L approximately V/2, where V is the variance of fitness distribution on a local landscape. This simple relationship is analogous to the well-known Einstein relation in Brownian motion. Second, the "biological information gain" (DeltaG/T) through adaptive walk can be described by combining the Shannon's information gain (DeltaS) and the "fitness information gain" (DeltaW/T).

The optimization of self-phased arrays for diurnal motion tracking of synchronous satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Theobold, D. M.; Hodge, D. B.

1977-01-01

The diurnal motion of a synchronous satellite necessitates mechanical tracking when a large aperture, high gain antenna is employed at the earth terminal. An alternative solution to this tracking problem is to use a self phased array consisting of a number of fixed pointed elements, each with moderate directivity. Non-mechanical tracking and adequate directive gain are achieved electronically by phase coherent summing of the element outputs. The element beamwidths provide overlapping area coverage of the satellite motion but introduce a diurnal variation into the array gain. The optimum element beamwidth and pointing direction of these elements can be obtained under the condition that the array gain is maximized simultaneously with the minimization of the diurnal variation.

Losses as ecological guides: minor losses lead to maximization and not to avoidance.

PubMed

Yechiam, Eldad; Retzer, Matan; Telpaz, Ariel; Hochman, Guy

2015-06-01

Losses are commonly thought to result in a neuropsychological avoidance response. We suggest that losses also provide ecological guidance by increasing focus on the task at hand, and that this effect may override the avoidance response. This prediction was tested in a series of studies. In Study 1a we found that minor losses did not lead to an avoidance response. Instead, they guided participants to make advantageous choices (in terms of expected value) and to avoid disadvantageous choices. Moreover, losses were associated with less switching between options after the first block of exploration. In Study 1b we found that this effect was not simply a by-product of the increase in visual contrast with losses. In Study 1c we found that the effect of losses did not emerge when alternatives did not differ in their expected value but only in their risk level. In Study 2 we investigated the autonomic arousal dynamics associated with this behavioral pattern via pupillometric responses. The results showed increased pupil diameter following losses compared to gains. However, this increase was not associated with a tendency to avoid losses, but rather with a tendency to select more advantageously. These findings suggest that attention and reasoning processes induced by losses can out-weigh the influence of affective processes leading to avoidance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How Do Perceptions About Cessation Outcomes Moderate the Effectiveness of a Gain-Framed Smoking Cessation Telephone Counseling Intervention?

PubMed Central

Latimer-Cheung, Amy E.; Fucito, Lisa M.; Carlin-Menter, Shannon; Rodriguez, Jocelyn; Raymond, Lindsey; Salovey, Peter; Makuch, Robert; Cummings, K. Michael; Toll, Benjamin A.

2013-01-01

The distinction between prevention and detection behaviors provides a useful guideline for appropriately framing health messages in terms of gains or losses. However, this guideline assumes that everyone perceives the outcomes associated with a behavior in a consistent manner, as prevention or detection. Individuals’ perceptions of a behavior vary, and so the effects of framed messages may be optimized by considering individuals’ perceptions rather than the prevention or detection function of the behavior. The authors tested this message-framing paradigm in a secondary analysis of data from a trial evaluating gain-framed smoking cessation counseling delivered through a state quitline (Toll et al., 2010). Smokers (N = 2,032) who called a state quitline received either gain-framed or standard care messages. Smokers’ beliefs about the positive consequences of stopping smoking (outcome expectancies) were evaluated at baseline. Smoking status and self-efficacy were assessed at 3 months. Outcome expectancies moderated the framing effects among men but not among women. Men in the gain-framed counseling condition who had positive outcome expectancies were more likely to quit and had more confidence in their ability to quit or to remain abstinent than men who were uncertain of the positive outcome of smoking cessation. Among men, self-efficacy mediated the moderated framing effects of the intervention on quit status. These findings suggest that it may be useful to consider sex and individual differences in outcome expectancies when delivering gain-framed smoking cessation messages in the context of a state quitline. PMID:22765277

Work Placement in UK Undergraduate Programmes. Student Expectations and Experiences.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leslie, David; Richardson, Anne

1999-01-01

A survey of 189 pre- and 106 post-sandwich work-experience students in tourism suggested that potential benefits were not being maximized. Students needed better preparation for the work experience, especially in terms of their expectations. The work experience needed better design, and the role of industry tutors needed clarification. (SK)

Career Preference among Universities' Faculty: Literature Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alenzi, Faris Q.; Salem, Mohamed L.

2007-01-01

Why do people enter academic life? What are their expectations? How can they maximize their experience and achievements, both short- and long-term? How much should they move towards commercialization? What can they do to improve their career? How much autonomy can they reasonably expect? What are the key issues for academics and aspiring academics…

Landsat-7 long-term acquisition plan radiometry - evolution over time

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markham, Brian L; Goward, Samuel; Arvidson, Terry; Barsi, Julia A.; Scaramuzza, Pat

2006-01-01

The Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus instrument has two selectable gains for each spectral band. In the acquisition plan, the gains were initially set to maximize the entropy in each scene. One unintended consequence of this strategy was that, at times, dense vegetation saturated band 4 and deserts saturated all bands. A revised strategy, based on a land-cover classification and sun angle thresholds, reduced saturation, but resulted in gain changes occurring within the same scene on multiple overpasses. As the gain changes cause some loss of data and difficulties for some ground processing systems, a procedure was devised to shift the gain changes to the nearest predicted cloudy scenes. The results are still not totally satisfactory as gain changes still impact some scenes and saturation still occurs, particularly in ephemerally snow-covered regions. A primary conclusion of our experience with variable gain on Landsat-7 is that such an approach should not be employed on future global monitoring missions.

Leaf Area Adjustment As an Optimal Drought-Adaptation Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzoni, S.; Beyer, F.; Thompson, S. E.; Vico, G.; Weih, M.

2014-12-01

Leaf phenology plays a major role in land-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges. Much work has focused on phenological responses to light and temperature, but less to leaf area changes during dry periods. Because the duration of droughts is expected to increase under future climates in seasonally-dry as well as mesic environments, it is crucial to (i) predict drought-related phenological changes and (ii) to develop physiologically-sound models of leaf area dynamics during dry periods. Several optimization criteria have been proposed to model leaf area adjustment as soil moisture decreases. Some theories are based on the plant carbon (C) balance, hypothesizing that leaf area will decline when instantaneous net photosynthetic rates become negative (equivalent to maximization of cumulative C gain). Other theories draw on hydraulic principles, suggesting that leaf area should adjust to either maintain a constant leaf water potential (isohydric behavior) or to avoid leaf water potentials with negative impacts on photosynthesis (i.e., minimization of water stress). Evergreen leaf phenology is considered as a control case. Merging these theories into a unified framework, we quantify the effect of phenological strategy and climate forcing on the net C gain over the entire growing season. By accounting for the C costs of leaf flushing and the gains stemming from leaf photosynthesis, this metric assesses the effectiveness of different phenological strategies, under different climatic scenarios. Evergreen species are favored only when the dry period is relatively short, as they can exploit most of the growing season, and only incur leaf maintenance costs during the short dry period. In contrast, deciduous species that lower maintenance costs by losing leaves are advantaged under drier climates. Moreover, among drought-deciduous species, isohydric behavior leads to lowest C gains. Losing leaves gradually so as to maintain a net C uptake equal to zero during the driest period in the growing season provides the highest gain. Since these strategies are all defined based on often-modeled quantities, they can be implemented in ecosystem models depending on plant functional type and climate.

Predictors of body composition and body energy changes in response to chronic overfeeding.

PubMed

Bouchard, C; Tchernof, A; Tremblay, A

2014-02-01

We have previously shown that 24 young lean men (12 pairs of identical twins) subjected to a standardized 353 MJ (84 000 kcal) overfeeding protocol over 100 days exhibited individual differences in body weight and composition gains. The mean (+s.d.) gains in fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM) were 5.4+1.9 kg and 2.7+1.5 kg for a total body energy (BE) gain of 221+75 MJ, representing 63% of the energy surplus consumed. We report here on the most important baseline correlates of these overfeeding-induced changes with the aim of identifying biomarkers of the response. Baseline maximal oxygen uptake per kg body mass was negatively correlated with gains in weight, FM and BE (all P<0.05). Enzyme activities indicative of skeletal muscle oxidative potential correlated with gains in FM and BE (all P<0.05). Baseline thyroid-stimulating hormone levels in response to thyrotropin-releasing hormone stimulation correlated positively with changes in FM-to-FFM ratio (P<0.05). Plasma concentrations of androstenediol sulfate, dehydroepiandrosterone and 17-hydroxy pregnenolone were negatively correlated with gains in FM and BE (0.01

Death talk: Basic linguistic rules and communication in perinatal and paediatric end-of-life discussions.

PubMed

Xafis, Vicki; Watkins, Andrew; Wilkinson, Dominic

2016-04-01

This paper considers clinician/parent communication difficulties noted by parents involved in end-of-life decision-making in the light of linguistic theory. Grice's Cooperative Principle and associated maxims, which enable effective communication, are examined in relation to communication deficiencies that parents have identified when making end-of-life decisions for the child. Examples from the literature are provided to clarify the impact of failing to observe the maxims on parents and on clinician/parent communication. Linguistic theory applied to the literature on parental concerns about clinician/parent communication shows that the violation of the maxims of quantity, quality, relation, and manner as well as the stance that some clinicians adopt during discussions with parents impact on clinician/parent communication and lead to distrust, anger, sadness, and long-term difficulties coping with the experience of losing one's child. Parents have identified communication deficiencies in end-of-life discussions. Relating these communication deficiencies to linguistic theory provides insight into communication difficulties but also solutions. Gaining an understanding of basic linguistic theory that underlies human interactions, gaining insight into the communication deficiencies that parents have identified, and modifying some communication behaviours in light of these with the suggestions made in this article may lead to improved clinician/parent communication. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Variable Resistance Training on Maximal Strength: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Soria-Gila, Miguel A; Chirosa, Ignacio J; Bautista, Iker J; Baena, Salvador; Chirosa, Luis J

2015-11-01

Variable resistance training (VRT) methods improve the rate of force development, coordination between antagonist and synergist muscles, the recruitment of motor units, and reduce the drop in force produced in the sticking region. However, the beneficial effects of long-term VRT on maximal strength both in athletes and untrained individuals have been much disputed. The purpose of this study was to compare in a meta-analysis the effects of a long-term (≥7 weeks) VRT program using chains or elastic bands and a similar constant resistance program in both trained adults practicing different sports and untrained individuals. Intervention effect sizes were compared among investigations meeting our selection and inclusion criteria using a random-effects model. The published studies considered were those addressing VRT effects on the 1 repetition maximum. Seven studies involving 235 subjects fulfilled the selection and inclusion criteria. Variable resistance training led to a significantly greater mean strength gain (weighted mean difference: 5.03 kg; 95% confidence interval: 2.26-7.80 kg; Z = 3.55; p < 0.001) than the gain recorded in response to conventional weight training. Long-term VRT training using chains or elastic bands attached to the barbell emerged as an effective evidence-based method of improving maximal strength both in athletes with different sports backgrounds and untrained subjects.

Likely gains in life expectancy of patients with coronary artery disease treated with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors, as predicted by a decision analysis model.

PubMed

Kellett, J

1997-07-01

To estimate the likely gains in life expectancy of patients with coronary artery disease treated with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors based on published reports and the results of the 4S and the West of Scotland Study. Decision analysis. Four likely scenarios of the effect of treatment with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors on the life expectancy of medically and surgically managed coronary artery disease were modelled. Regardless of the scenario, treatment with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors was estimated to provide a gain in life expectancy for medically managed patients of all ages with coronary artery disease, ranging from 4.6 to 10.1 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for a 40 year old with three vessel disease (depending on the scenario assumed), to 0.2 QALYs for a 80 year old with two vessel disease. These gains were always greater than those predicted after bypass alone. If the use of HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors produces the same reduction in cardiac mortality after bypass as it does in medically managed patients it will increase the benefits of operation except for patients with two vessel disease over 70 years of age. Conversely, if HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors do not influence the course of coronary artery disease after bypass, the benefits of operation over medical treatment with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors are either reduced or lost completely, ranging from a loss of -5.6 QALYs for a 40 year old with two vessel disease to a gain of 1.5 QALYs for 55 to 60 year old patients with left main stem disease. Although their effect on the progression of coronary artery disease after bypass must be defined, it is probable that HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors will produce considerable gains in life expectancy for patients with coronary artery disease.

How do we assign punishment? The impact of minimal and maximal standards on the evaluation of deviants.

PubMed

Kessler, Thomas; Neumann, Jörg; Mummendey, Amélie; Berthold, Anne; Schubert, Thomas; Waldzus, Sven

2010-09-01

To explain the determinants of negative behavior toward deviants (e.g., punishment), this article examines how people evaluate others on the basis of two types of standards: minimal and maximal. Minimal standards focus on an absolute cutoff point for appropriate behavior; accordingly, the evaluation of others varies dichotomously between acceptable or unacceptable. Maximal standards focus on the degree of deviation from that standard; accordingly, the evaluation of others varies gradually from positive to less positive. This framework leads to the prediction that violation of minimal standards should elicit punishment regardless of the degree of deviation, whereas punishment in response to violations of maximal standards should depend on the degree of deviation. Four studies assessed or manipulated the type of standard and degree of deviation displayed by a target. Results consistently showed the expected interaction between type of standard (minimal and maximal) and degree of deviation on punishment behavior.

Years of life gained due to leisure-time physical activity in the U.S.

PubMed

Janssen, Ian; Carson, Valerie; Lee, I-Min; Katzmarzyk, Peter T; Blair, Steven N

2013-01-01

Physical inactivity is an important modifiable risk factor for noncommunicable disease. The degree to which physical activity affects the life expectancy of Americans is unknown. This study estimated the potential years of life gained due to leisure-time physical activity in the U.S. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007-2010); National Health Interview Study mortality linkage (1990-2006); and U.S. Life Tables (2006) were used to estimate and compare life expectancy at each age of adult life for inactive (no moderate to vigorous physical activity); somewhat-active (some moderate to vigorous activity but <500 MET minutes/week); and active (≥ 500 MET minutes/week of moderate to vigorous activity) adults. Analyses were conducted in 2012. Somewhat-active and active non-Hispanic white men had a life expectancy at age 20 years that was ~2.4 years longer than that for the inactive men; this life expectancy advantage was 1.2 years at age 80 years. Similar observations were made in non-Hispanic white women, with a higher life expectancy within the active category of 3.0 years at age 20 years and 1.6 years at age 80 years. In non-Hispanic black women, as many as 5.5 potential years of life were gained due to physical activity. Significant increases in longevity were also observed within somewhat-active and active non-Hispanic black men; however, among Hispanics the years-of-life-gained estimates were not significantly different from 0 years gained. Leisure-time physical activity is associated with increases in longevity. Copyright © 2013 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Years of Life Gained Due to Leisure-Time Physical Activity in the United States

PubMed Central

Janssen, Ian; Carson, Valerie; Lee, I-Min; Katzmarzyk, Peter T.; Blair, Steven N.

2013-01-01

Background Physical inactivity is an important modifiable risk factor for non-communicable disease. The degree to which physical activity affects the life expectancy of Americans is unknown. This study estimated the potential years of life gained due to leisure-time physical activity across the adult lifespan in the United States. Methods Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007–2010), National Health Interview Study mortality linkage (1990–2006), and US Life Tables (2006) were used to estimate and compare life expectancy at each age of adult life for inactive (no moderate-to-vigorous physical activity), somewhat active (some moderate-to-vigorous activity but <500 metabolic equivalent min/week) and active (≥500 metabolic equivalent min/week of moderate-to-vigorous activity) adults. Analyses were conducted in 2012. Results Somewhat active and active non-Hispanic white men had a life expectancy at age 20 that was around 2.4 years longer than the inactive men; this life expectancy advantage was 1.2 years at age 80. Similar observations were made in non-Hispanic white women, with a higher life expectancy within the active category of 3.0 years at age 20 and 1.6 years at age 80. In non-Hispanic black women, as many as 5.5 potential years of life were gained due to physical activity. Significant increases in longevity were also observed within somewhat active and active non-Hispanic black men; however, among Hispanics the years of life gained estimates were more variable and not significantly different from 0 years gained. Conclusions Leisure-time physical activity is associated with increases in longevity in the United States. PMID:23253646

Do they see it coming? Using expectancy violation to gauge the success of pedagogical reforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaffney, Jon D. H.; Gaffney, Amy L. Housley; Beichner, Robert J.

2010-06-01

We present a measure, which we have named the Pedagogical Expectancy Violation Assessment (PEVA), for instructors to gauge one aspect of the success of their implementation of pedagogical reform by assessing the expectations and experiences of the students in the classroom. We implemented the PEVA in four physics classes at three institutions that used the Student Centered Active Learning Environment for Undergraduate Programs (SCALE-UP) pedagogy in order to gain an understanding of students’ initial expectations, how those expectations are shifted during early classes, and what students report experiencing at the end of the semester. The results indicate appropriate shifts in student expectations during orientation, but some gaps between student expectations and experiences persisted. Students rated the communication aspects of SCALE-UP as desirable and indicated an overall positive affect toward the pedagogy, indicating that violations of their initial expectations were largely positive. By studying the patterns of the shifts in students’ expectations and gaps between those expectations and their experiences, we gain insight for improving both the orientation of the students and the implementation of the course.

The work of accident and emergency nurses: Part 2. A & E maxims: making A & E work unique and special.

PubMed

Sbaih, L

1997-04-01

An ethnomethodological study was undertaken to explore the work of Accident and Emergency (A & E) nurses; the aim of which was to analyse the ordinary, taken for granted, everyday work of those practising A & E nursing. In this second paper on the work of A & E nurses, the specific rules or maxims of nursing work in A & E are introduced. From the analysis of materials gained: fieldwork notes, observations of nurses at work and conversations, a number of maxims of A & E nursing work were identified. Maxims direct, instruct and make nurses accountable for their work and the ways in which it gets done. That is, the presence of maxims underpinning A & E nursing work ensure that A & E nursing is seen and heard as a specific type of work with its own unique approach to talk and organization. Being aware of the maxims of A & E nursing work is not the concern of the nurse practising A & E nursing on a daily basis. Implicit and explicit reference to the maxims when talking about and doing the work provides nurses with impressions of who can do the job. Non-adherence by some nurses to the maxims of A & E nursing work often leads their colleagues to question their commitment to their choice of work setting. Maxims of A & E nursing account for the ways in which the work is seen, heard and talked about. Maxims direct the organization of work and its development within the A & E setting.

Altered reward expectancy in individuals with recent methamphetamine dependence.

PubMed

Bischoff-Grethe, Amanda; Connolly, Colm G; Jordan, Stephan J; Brown, Gregory G; Paulus, Martin P; Tapert, Susan F; Heaton, Robert K; Woods, Steven P; Grant, Igor

2017-01-01

Chronic methamphetamine use may lead to changes in reward-related function of the ventral striatum and caudate nucleus. Whether methamphetamine-dependent individuals show heightened reactivity to positively valenced stimuli (i.e. positive reinforcement mechanisms), or an exaggerated response to negatively valenced stimuli (i.e. driven by negative reinforcement mechanisms) remains unclear. This study investigated neural functioning of expectancy and receipt for gains and losses in adults with (METH+) and without (METH-) histories of methamphetamine dependence. Participants (17 METH+; 23 METH-) performed a probabilistic feedback expectancy task during blood-oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Participants were given visual cues probabilistically associated with monetary gain, loss, or neutral outcomes. General linear models examined the BOLD response to: (1) anticipation of gains and losses, and (2) gain and loss monetary outcomes. METH+ had less BOLD response to loss anticipation than METH- in the ventral striatum and posterior caudate. METH+ also showed more BOLD response to loss outcomes than to gain outcomes in the anterior and posterior caudate, whereas METH- did not show differential responses to the valence of outcomes. METH+ individuals showed attenuated neural response to anticipated gains and losses, but their response to loss outcomes was greater than to gain outcomes. A decreased response to loss anticipation, along with a greater response to loss outcomes, suggests an altered ability to evaluate future risks and benefits based upon prior experience, which may underlie suboptimal decision-making in METH+ individuals that increases the likelihood of risky behavior.

Altered reward expectancy in individuals with recent methamphetamine dependence

PubMed Central

Bischoff-Grethe, Amanda; Connolly, Colm G; Jordan, Stephan J; Brown, Gregory G; Paulus, Martin P; Tapert, Susan F; Heaton, Robert K; Woods, Steven P; Grant, Igor

2016-01-01

Background Chronic methamphetamine use may lead to changes in reward-related function of the ventral striatum and caudate nucleus. Whether methamphetamine dependent individuals show heightened reactivity to positively valenced stimuli (i.e., positive reinforcement mechanisms), or an exaggerated response to negatively valenced stimuli (i.e., driven by negative reinforcement mechanisms) remains unclear. This study investigated neural functioning of expectancy and receipt for gains and losses in adults with (METH+) and without (METH−) histories of methamphetamine dependence. Methods Participants (17 METH+; 23 METH−) performed a probabilistic feedback expectancy task during blood-oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Participants were given visual cues probabilistically associated with monetary gain, loss, or neutral outcomes. General linear models examined the BOLD response to: (1) anticipation of gains and losses, and (2) gain and loss monetary outcomes. Results METH+ had less BOLD response to loss anticipation than METH− in the ventral striatum and posterior caudate. METH+ also showed more BOLD response to loss outcomes than to gain outcomes in the anterior and posterior caudate, whereas METH− did not show differential responses to the valence of outcomes. Discussion METH+ individuals showed attenuated neural response to anticipated gains and losses, but their response to loss outcomes was greater than to gain outcomes. A decreased response to loss anticipation, along with a greater response to loss outcomes, suggests an altered ability to evaluate future risks and benefits based upon prior experience, which may underlie suboptimal decision-making in METH+ individuals that increases the likelihood of risky behavior. PMID:27649775

Who Are You More Likely to Help? The Effects of Expected Outcomes and Regulatory Focus on Prosocial Performance.

PubMed

Xiao, Fengqiu; Zheng, Zhiwei; Zhang, Heyi; Xin, Ziqiang; Chen, Yinghe; Li, Yiwei

2016-01-01

Prosocial behavior refers to a broad category of actions that benefit other people or the society. Compared with other factors that affect prosocial performance, prosocial outcomes, consisting of prosocial gains and prosocial non-losses have received less attention up to now. In the current research, we explored the influences of different types of expected outcomes and regulatory focus on prosocial performance. Studies 1a and 1b examined the differences in prosocial performance elicited by prosocial gain (e.g., enhancing others' access to clean water) and prosocial non-loss outcomes (e.g., protecting others from suffering dirty water). We found that the expected prosocial non-loss outcomes induced greater prosocial performance compared with the expected prosocial gain outcomes. Studies 2a and 2b examined the effects of dispositional and situational regulatory focus on prosocial loss aversion. We found that differences in prosocial performance between two expected prosocial outcomes were reduced when promotion focus was primed; whereas a primed prevention focus did not significantly increase this difference. Additionally, participants displayed a greater prosocial loss aversion in the prevention focus condition than in the promotion focus condition. The reason for the non-significant interaction between regulatory focus and expected prosocial outcome was discussed.

Who Are You More Likely to Help? The Effects of Expected Outcomes and Regulatory Focus on Prosocial Performance

PubMed Central

Xiao, Fengqiu; Zheng, Zhiwei; Zhang, Heyi; Xin, Ziqiang; Chen, Yinghe; Li, Yiwei

2016-01-01

Prosocial behavior refers to a broad category of actions that benefit other people or the society. Compared with other factors that affect prosocial performance, prosocial outcomes, consisting of prosocial gains and prosocial non-losses have received less attention up to now. In the current research, we explored the influences of different types of expected outcomes and regulatory focus on prosocial performance. Studies 1a and 1b examined the differences in prosocial performance elicited by prosocial gain (e.g., enhancing others’ access to clean water) and prosocial non-loss outcomes (e.g., protecting others from suffering dirty water). We found that the expected prosocial non-loss outcomes induced greater prosocial performance compared with the expected prosocial gain outcomes. Studies 2a and 2b examined the effects of dispositional and situational regulatory focus on prosocial loss aversion. We found that differences in prosocial performance between two expected prosocial outcomes were reduced when promotion focus was primed; whereas a primed prevention focus did not significantly increase this difference. Additionally, participants displayed a greater prosocial loss aversion in the prevention focus condition than in the promotion focus condition. The reason for the non-significant interaction between regulatory focus and expected prosocial outcome was discussed. PMID:27824909

Health-adjusted life expectancy in Canada.

PubMed

Bushnik, Tracey; Tjepkema, Michael; Martel, Laurent

2018-04-18

Over the past century, life expectancy at birth in Canada has risen substantially. However, these gains in the quantity of life say little about gains in the quality of life. Health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE), an indicator of quality of life, was estimated for the household and institutional populations combined every four years from 1994/1995 to 2015. Health status was measured by the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 instrument in two national population health surveys, and was used to adjust life expectancy. The percentage of the population living in health-related institutions was estimated based on the Census of Population. Attribute-deleted HALE was calculated to determine how various aspects of health status contributed to the differences between life expectancy and HALE. HALE has increased in Canada. Greater gains among males have narrowed the gap between males and females. The ratio of HALE to life expectancy changed little for males, and a marginal improvement was observed for females aged 65 or older. Mobility problems and pain, the latter mainly among females, accounted for an increased share of the burden of ill health over time. Exclusion of the institutional population significantly increased the estimates of HALE and yielded higher ratios of HALE to life expectancy. Although people are living longer, the share of years spent in good functional health has remained fairly constant. Data for both the household and institutional populations are necessary for a complete picture of health expectancy in Canada.

Three-class ROC analysis--the equal error utility assumption and the optimality of three-class ROC surface using the ideal observer.

PubMed

He, Xin; Frey, Eric C

2006-08-01

Previously, we have developed a decision model for three-class receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis based on decision theory. The proposed decision model maximizes the expected decision utility under the assumption that incorrect decisions have equal utilities under the same hypothesis (equal error utility assumption). This assumption reduced the dimensionality of the "general" three-class ROC analysis and provided a practical figure-of-merit to evaluate the three-class task performance. However, it also limits the generality of the resulting model because the equal error utility assumption will not apply for all clinical three-class decision tasks. The goal of this study was to investigate the optimality of the proposed three-class decision model with respect to several other decision criteria. In particular, besides the maximum expected utility (MEU) criterion used in the previous study, we investigated the maximum-correctness (MC) (or minimum-error), maximum likelihood (ML), and Nyman-Pearson (N-P) criteria. We found that by making assumptions for both MEU and N-P criteria, all decision criteria lead to the previously-proposed three-class decision model. As a result, this model maximizes the expected utility under the equal error utility assumption, maximizes the probability of making correct decisions, satisfies the N-P criterion in the sense that it maximizes the sensitivity of one class given the sensitivities of the other two classes, and the resulting ROC surface contains the maximum likelihood decision operating point. While the proposed three-class ROC analysis model is not optimal in the general sense due to the use of the equal error utility assumption, the range of criteria for which it is optimal increases its applicability for evaluating and comparing a range of diagnostic systems.

Enhanced optical alignment of a digital micro mirror device through Bayesian adaptive exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wynne, Kevin B.; Knuth, Kevin H.; Petruccelli, Jonathan

2017-12-01

As the use of Digital Micro Mirror Devices (DMDs) becomes more prevalent in optics research, the ability to precisely locate the Fourier "footprint" of an image beam at the Fourier plane becomes a pressing need. In this approach, Bayesian adaptive exploration techniques were employed to characterize the size and position of the beam on a DMD located at the Fourier plane. It couples a Bayesian inference engine with an inquiry engine to implement the search. The inquiry engine explores the DMD by engaging mirrors and recording light intensity values based on the maximization of the expected information gain. Using the data collected from this exploration, the Bayesian inference engine updates the posterior probability describing the beam's characteristics. The process is iterated until the beam is located to within the desired precision. This methodology not only locates the center and radius of the beam with remarkable precision but accomplishes the task in far less time than a brute force search. The employed approach has applications to system alignment for both Fourier processing and coded aperture design.

Are Global and Regional Improvements in Life Expectancy and in Child, Adult and Senior Survival Slowing?

PubMed Central

Hum, Ryan J.; Verguet, Stéphane; Cheng, Yu-Ling; McGahan, Anita M.; Jha, Prabhat

2015-01-01

Improvements in life expectancy have been considerable over the past hundred years. Forecasters have taken to applying historical trends under an assumption of continuing improvements in life expectancy in the future. A linear mixed effects model was used to estimate the trends in global and regional rates of improvements in life expectancy, child, adult, and senior survival, in 166 countries between 1950 and 2010. Global improvements in life expectancy, including both child and adult survival rates, decelerated significantly over the study period. Overall life expectancy gains were estimated to have declined from 5.9 to 4.0 months per year for a mean deceleration of -0.07 months/year2; annual child survival gains declined from 4.4 to 1.6 deaths averted per 1000 for a mean deceleration of -0.06 deaths/1000/year2; adult survival gains were estimated to decline from 4.8 to 3.7 deaths averted per 1000 per year for a mean deceleration of -0.08 deaths/1000/year2. Senior survival gains however increased from 2.4 to 4.2 deaths averted per 1000 per year for an acceleration of 0.03 deaths/1000/year2. Regional variation in the four measures was substantial. The rates of global improvements in life expectancy, child survival, and adult survival have declined since 1950 despite an increase in the rate of improvements among seniors. We postulate that low-cost innovation, related to the last half-century progress in health–primarily devoted to children and middle age, is reaping diminishing returns on its investments. Trends are uneven across regions and measures, which may be due in part to the state of epidemiological transition between countries and regions and disparities in the diffusion of innovation, accessible only in high-income countries where life expectancy is already highest. PMID:25992949

Do pre- and post-copulatory sexually selected traits covary in large herbivores?

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background In most species, males compete to gain both matings (via pre-copulatory competition) and fertilizations (via post-copulatory competition) to maximize their reproductive success. However, the quantity of resources devoted to sexual traits is finite, and so males are predicted to balance their investment between pre- and post-copulatory expenditure depending on the expected pay-offs that should vary according to mating tactics. In Artiodactyla species, males can invest in weapons such as horns or antlers to increase their mating gains or in testes mass/sperm dimensions to increase their fertilization efficiency. Moreover, it has been suggested that in these species, males with territory defence mating tactic might preferentially increase their investment in post-copulatory traits to increase their fertilization efficiency whereas males with female defence mating tactic might increase their investment in pre-copulatory sexually selected traits to prevent other males from copulating with females. In this study, we thus test the prediction that male’s weapon length (pre-copulatory trait) covaries negatively with relative testes size and/or sperm dimensions (post-copulatory traits) across Artiodactyla using a phylogenetically controlled framework. Results Surprisingly no association between weapon length and testes mass is found but a negative association between weapon length and sperm length is evidenced. In addition, neither pre- nor post-copulatory traits were found to be affected by male mating tactics. Conclusions We propose several hypotheses that could explain why male ungulates may not balance their reproductive investment between pre- and post-copulatory traits. PMID:24716470

Similar patterns of frequency-dependent selection on animal personalities emerge in three species of social spiders.

PubMed

Lichtenstein, J L L; Pruitt, J N

2015-06-01

Frequency-dependent selection is thought to be a major contributor to the maintenance of phenotypic variation. We tested for frequency-dependent selection on contrasting behavioural strategies, termed here 'personalities', in three species of social spiders, each thought to represent an independent evolutionary origin of sociality. The evolution of sociality in the spider genus Anelosimus is consistently met with the emergence of two temporally stable discrete personality types: an 'aggressive' or 'docile' form. We assessed how the foraging success of each phenotype changes as a function of its representation within a colony. We did this by creating experimental colonies of various compositions (six aggressives, three aggressives and three dociles, one aggressive and five dociles, six dociles), maintaining them in a common garden for 3 weeks, and tracking the mass gained by individuals of either phenotype. We found that both the docile and aggressive phenotypes experienced their greatest mass gain in mixed colonies of mostly docile individuals. However, the performance of both phenotypes decreased as the frequency of the aggressive phenotype increased. Nearly identical patterns of phenotype-specific frequency dependence were recovered in all three species. Naturally occurring colonies of these spiders exhibit mixtures dominated by the docile phenotype, suggesting that these spiders may have evolved mechanisms to maintain the compositions that maximize the success of the colony without compromising the expected reproductive output of either phenotype. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Chronic Motivational State Interacts with Task Reward Structure in Dynamic Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Cooper, Jessica A.; Worthy, Darrell A.; Maddox, W. Todd

2015-01-01

Research distinguishes between a habitual, model-free system motivated toward immediately rewarding actions, and a goal-directed, model-based system motivated toward actions that improve future state. We examined the balance of processing in these two systems during state-based decision-making. We tested a regulatory fit hypothesis (Maddox & Markman, 2010) that predicts that global trait motivation affects the balance of habitual- vs. goal-directed processing but only through its interaction with the task framing as gain-maximization or loss-minimization. We found support for the hypothesis that a match between an individual’s chronic motivational state and the task framing enhances goal-directed processing, and thus state-based decision-making. Specifically, chronic promotion-focused individuals under gain-maximization and chronic prevention-focused individuals under loss-minimization both showed enhanced state-based decision-making. Computational modeling indicates that individuals in a match between global chronic motivational state and local task reward structure engaged more goal-directed processing, whereas those in a mismatch engaged more habitual processing. PMID:26520256

Maximizing the Gains and Minimizing the Pains of Diversity: A Policy Perspective.

PubMed

Galinsky, Adam D; Todd, Andrew R; Homan, Astrid C; Phillips, Katherine W; Apfelbaum, Evan P; Sasaki, Stacey J; Richeson, Jennifer A; Olayon, Jennifer B; Maddux, William W

2015-11-01

Empirical evidence reveals that diversity-heterogeneity in race, culture, gender, etc.-has material benefits for organizations, communities, and nations. However, because diversity can also incite detrimental forms of conflict and resentment, its benefits are not always realized. Drawing on research from multiple disciplines, this article offers recommendations for how best to harness the benefits of diversity. First, we highlight how two forms of diversity-the diversity present in groups, communities, and nations, and the diversity acquired by individuals through their personal experiences (e.g., living abroad)-enable effective decision making, innovation, and economic growth by promoting deeper information processing and complex thinking. Second, we identify methods to remove barriers that limit the amount of diversity and opportunity in organizations. Third, we describe practices, including inclusive multiculturalism and perspective taking, that can help manage diversity without engendering resistance. Finally, we propose a number of policies that can maximize the gains and minimize the pains of diversity. © The Author(s) 2015.

The moderating effect of gender on the relation between expectancies and gambling frequency among college students.

PubMed

Teeters, Jenni B; Ginley, Meredith K; Whelan, James P; Meyers, Andrew W; Pearlson, Godfrey D

2015-03-01

Compared to college females, college males are more likely to report frequent gambling. Research on gambling outcome expectancies has shown that expectations about gambling influence gambling behavior and that endorsement of particular expectancies differs by gender. Knowledge regarding the differential predictive utility of specific gambling expectancies based on gender would help to determine how beliefs about gambling may be fundamentally different for men and women. The present study explored whether gender moderates the relation between gambling expectancy and gambling frequency in a college sample. 421 college students completed an online survey that included questions about their demographics, gambling frequency, and gambling expectancies. Hierarchical regression analyses indicated that gender moderated the relations between the expectancies of social consequences, material gain, and gambling frequency. For females, greater endorsement of social consequences predicted less frequent gambling. For both males and females, greater endorsement of material gain predicted more frequent gambling. The current findings can help inform prevention and intervention efforts by identifying gambling expectations that are differentially related to college student gambling behavior choices.

Joint state and parameter estimation of the hemodynamic model by particle smoother expectation maximization method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aslan, Serdar; Taylan Cemgil, Ali; Akın, Ata

2016-08-01

Objective. In this paper, we aimed for the robust estimation of the parameters and states of the hemodynamic model by using blood oxygen level dependent signal. Approach. In the fMRI literature, there are only a few successful methods that are able to make a joint estimation of the states and parameters of the hemodynamic model. In this paper, we implemented a maximum likelihood based method called the particle smoother expectation maximization (PSEM) algorithm for the joint state and parameter estimation. Main results. Former sequential Monte Carlo methods were only reliable in the hemodynamic state estimates. They were claimed to outperform the local linearization (LL) filter and the extended Kalman filter (EKF). The PSEM algorithm is compared with the most successful method called square-root cubature Kalman smoother (SCKS) for both state and parameter estimation. SCKS was found to be better than the dynamic expectation maximization (DEM) algorithm, which was shown to be a better estimator than EKF, LL and particle filters. Significance. PSEM was more accurate than SCKS for both the state and the parameter estimation. Hence, PSEM seems to be the most accurate method for the system identification and state estimation for the hemodynamic model inversion literature. This paper do not compare its results with Tikhonov-regularized Newton—CKF (TNF-CKF), a recent robust method which works in filtering sense.

Competitive Facility Location with Random Demands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uno, Takeshi; Katagiri, Hideki; Kato, Kosuke

2009-10-01

This paper proposes a new location problem of competitive facilities, e.g. shops and stores, with uncertain demands in the plane. By representing the demands for facilities as random variables, the location problem is formulated to a stochastic programming problem, and for finding its solution, three deterministic programming problems: expectation maximizing problem, probability maximizing problem, and satisfying level maximizing problem are considered. After showing that one of their optimal solutions can be found by solving 0-1 programming problems, their solution method is proposed by improving the tabu search algorithm with strategic vibration. Efficiency of the solution method is shown by applying to numerical examples of the facility location problems.

Physical renormalization condition for de Sitter QED

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashinaka, Takahiro; Xue, She-Sheng

2018-05-01

We considered a new renormalization condition for the vacuum expectation values of the scalar and spinor currents induced by a homogeneous and constant electric field background in de Sitter spacetime. Following a semiclassical argument, the condition named maximal subtraction imposes the exponential suppression on the massive charged particle limit of the renormalized currents. The maximal subtraction changes the behaviors of the induced currents previously obtained by the conventional minimal subtraction scheme. The maximal subtraction is favored for a couple of physically decent predictions including the identical asymptotic behavior of the scalar and spinor currents, the removal of the IR hyperconductivity from the scalar current, and the finite current for the massless fermion.

Capacity Maximizing Constellations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barsoum, Maged; Jones, Christopher

2010-01-01

Some non-traditional signal constellations have been proposed for transmission of data over the Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN) channel using such channel-capacity-approaching codes as low-density parity-check (LDPC) or turbo codes. Computational simulations have shown performance gains of more than 1 dB over traditional constellations. These gains could be translated to bandwidth- efficient communications, variously, over longer distances, using less power, or using smaller antennas. The proposed constellations have been used in a bit-interleaved coded modulation system employing state-ofthe-art LDPC codes. In computational simulations, these constellations were shown to afford performance gains over traditional constellations as predicted by the gap between the parallel decoding capacity of the constellations and the Gaussian capacity

Positive Gain Spirals at Work: From Job Resources to Work Engagement, Personal Initiative and Work-Unit Innovativeness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hakanen, Jari J.; Perhoniemi, Riku; Toppinen-Tanner, Salla

2008-01-01

The present cross-lagged panel study aimed to investigate the energizing power of job resources and related gain spirals. Drawing on Hobfoll's Conservation of Resources (COR) theory's rarely tested assumptions of cumulative resource gains and gain spirals a reciprocal process was expected: (1) job resources lead to work engagement and work…

G-STRATEGY: Optimal Selection of Individuals for Sequencing in Genetic Association Studies

PubMed Central

Wang, Miaoyan; Jakobsdottir, Johanna; Smith, Albert V.; McPeek, Mary Sara

2017-01-01

In a large-scale genetic association study, the number of phenotyped individuals available for sequencing may, in some cases, be greater than the study’s sequencing budget will allow. In that case, it can be important to prioritize individuals for sequencing in a way that optimizes power for association with the trait. Suppose a cohort of phenotyped individuals is available, with some subset of them possibly already sequenced, and one wants to choose an additional fixed-size subset of individuals to sequence in such a way that the power to detect association is maximized. When the phenotyped sample includes related individuals, power for association can be gained by including partial information, such as phenotype data of ungenotyped relatives, in the analysis, and this should be taken into account when assessing whom to sequence. We propose G-STRATEGY, which uses simulated annealing to choose a subset of individuals for sequencing that maximizes the expected power for association. In simulations, G-STRATEGY performs extremely well for a range of complex disease models and outperforms other strategies with, in many cases, relative power increases of 20–40% over the next best strategy, while maintaining correct type 1 error. G-STRATEGY is computationally feasible even for large datasets and complex pedigrees. We apply G-STRATEGY to data on HDL and LDL from the AGES-Reykjavik and REFINE-Reykjavik studies, in which G-STRATEGY is able to closely-approximate the power of sequencing the full sample by selecting for sequencing a only small subset of the individuals. PMID:27256766

Prevention and management of intraoperative crisis in VATS and open chest surgery: how to avoid emergency conversion.

PubMed

Safdie, Fernando M; Sanchez, Manuel Villa; Sarkaria, Inderpal S

2017-01-01

Video assisted thoracic surgery (VATS) has become a routinely utilized approach to complex procedures of the chest, such as pulmonary resection. It has been associated with decreased postoperative pain, shorter length of stay and lower incidence of complications such as pneumonia. Limitations to this modality may include limited exposure, lack of tactile feedback, and a two-dimensional view of the surgical field. Furthermore, the lack of an open incision may incur technical challenges in preventing and controlling operative misadventures leading to major hemorrhage or other intraoperative emergencies. While these events may occur in the best of circumstances, prevention strategies are the primary means of avoiding these injuries. Unplanned conversions for major intraoperative bleeding or airway injury during general thoracic surgical procedures are relatively rare and often can be avoided with careful preoperative planning, review of relevant imaging, and meticulous surgical technique. When these events occur, a pre-planned, methodical response with initial control of bleeding, assessment of injury, and appropriate repair and/or salvage procedures are necessary to maximize outcomes. The surgeon should be well versed in injury-specific incisions and approaches to maximize adequate exposure and when feasible, allow completion of the index operation. Decisions to continue with a minimally invasive approach should consider the comfort and experience level of the surgeon with these techniques, and the relative benefit gained against the risk incurred to the patient. These algorithms may be expected to shift in the future with increasing sophistication and capabilities of minimally invasive technologies and approaches.

What currency do bumble bees maximize?

PubMed

Charlton, Nicholas L; Houston, Alasdair I

2010-08-16

In modelling bumble bee foraging, net rate of energetic intake has been suggested as the appropriate currency. The foraging behaviour of honey bees is better predicted by using efficiency, the ratio of energetic gain to expenditure, as the currency. We re-analyse several studies of bumble bee foraging and show that efficiency is as good a currency as net rate in terms of predicting behaviour. We suggest that future studies of the foraging of bumble bees should be designed to distinguish between net rate and efficiency maximizing behaviour in an attempt to discover which is the more appropriate currency.

What Currency Do Bumble Bees Maximize?

PubMed Central

Charlton, Nicholas L.; Houston, Alasdair I.

2010-01-01

In modelling bumble bee foraging, net rate of energetic intake has been suggested as the appropriate currency. The foraging behaviour of honey bees is better predicted by using efficiency, the ratio of energetic gain to expenditure, as the currency. We re-analyse several studies of bumble bee foraging and show that efficiency is as good a currency as net rate in terms of predicting behaviour. We suggest that future studies of the foraging of bumble bees should be designed to distinguish between net rate and efficiency maximizing behaviour in an attempt to discover which is the more appropriate currency. PMID:20808437

Measuring Financial Gains from Genetically Superior Trees

Treesearch

George Dutrow; Clark Row

1976-01-01

Planting genetically superior loblolly pines will probably yield high profits.Forest economists have made computer simulations that predict financial gains expected from a tree improvement program under actual field conditions.

Accounting for between-study variation in incremental net benefit in value of information methodology.

PubMed

Willan, Andrew R; Eckermann, Simon

2012-10-01

Previous applications of value of information methods for determining optimal sample size in randomized clinical trials have assumed no between-study variation in mean incremental net benefit. By adopting a hierarchical model, we provide a solution for determining optimal sample size with this assumption relaxed. The solution is illustrated with two examples from the literature. Expected net gain increases with increasing between-study variation, reflecting the increased uncertainty in incremental net benefit and reduced extent to which data are borrowed from previous evidence. Hence, a trial can become optimal where current evidence is sufficient assuming no between-study variation. However, despite the expected net gain increasing, the optimal sample size in the illustrated examples is relatively insensitive to the amount of between-study variation. Further percentage losses in expected net gain were small even when choosing sample sizes that reflected widely different between-study variation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

SYNOPTIC ASSESSMENT OF WETLAND FUNCTION: A PLANNING TOOL FOR PROTECTION OF WETLAND SPECIES DIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

We present a synoptic assessment intended to maximize the benefits to wetland species biodiversity gained through Clean Water Act regulatory efforts within 225 sub-basins in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 7), USA. Our assessment...

How efficient are New Zealand's District Health Boards at producing life expectancy gains for Māori and Europeans?

PubMed

Sandiford, Peter; Consuelo, David Juan José Vivas; Rouse, Paul

2017-04-01

Use data envelopment analysis (DEA) to measure the efficiency of New Zealand's District Health Boards (DHBs) at achieving gains in Māori and European life expectancy (LE). Using life tables for 2006 and 2013, a two-output DEA model established the production possibility frontier for Māori and European LE gain. Confidence limits were generated from a 10,000 replicate Monte Carlo simulation. Results support the use of LE change as an indicator of DHB efficiency. DHB mean income and education were related to initial LE but not to its rate of change. LE gains were unrelated to either the initial level of life expectancy or to the proportion of Māori in the population. DHB efficiency ranged from 79% to 100%. Efficiency was significantly correlated with DHB financial performance. Changes in LE did not depend on the social characteristics of the DHB. The statistically significant association between efficiency and financial performance supports its use as an indicator of managerial effectiveness. Implications for public health: Efficient health systems achieve better population health outcomes. DEA can be used to measure the relative efficiency of sub-national health authorities at achieving health gain and equity outcomes. © 2016 The Authors.

Trust regions in Kriging-based optimization with expected improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regis, Rommel G.

2016-06-01

The Kriging-based Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) method works well on many expensive black-box optimization problems. However, it does not seem to perform well on problems with steep and narrow global minimum basins and on high-dimensional problems. This article develops a new Kriging-based optimization method called TRIKE (Trust Region Implementation in Kriging-based optimization with Expected improvement) that implements a trust-region-like approach where each iterate is obtained by maximizing an Expected Improvement (EI) function within some trust region. This trust region is adjusted depending on the ratio of the actual improvement to the EI. This article also develops the Kriging-based CYCLONE (CYClic Local search in OptimizatioN using Expected improvement) method that uses a cyclic pattern to determine the search regions where the EI is maximized. TRIKE and CYCLONE are compared with EGO on 28 test problems with up to 32 dimensions and on a 36-dimensional groundwater bioremediation application in appendices supplied as an online supplement available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0305215X.2015.1082350. The results show that both algorithms yield substantial improvements over EGO and they are competitive with a radial basis function method.

Patient-accessible tool for shared decision making in cardiovascular primary prevention: balancing longevity benefits against medication disutility.

PubMed

Fontana, Marianna; Asaria, Perviz; Moraldo, Michela; Finegold, Judith; Hassanally, Khalil; Manisty, Charlotte H; Francis, Darrel P

2014-06-17

Primary prevention guidelines focus on risk, often assuming negligible aversion to medication, yet most patients discontinue primary prevention statins within 3 years. We quantify real-world distribution of medication disutility and separately calculate the average utilities for a range of risk strata. We randomly sampled 360 members of the general public in London. Medication aversion was quantified as the gain in lifespan required by each individual to offset the inconvenience (disutility) of taking an idealized daily preventative tablet. In parallel, we constructed tables of expected gain in lifespan (utility) from initiating statin therapy for each age group, sex, and cardiovascular risk profile in the population. This allowed comparison of the widths of the distributions of medication disutility and of group-average expectation of longevity gain. Observed medication disutility ranged from 1 day to >10 years of life being required by subjects (median, 6 months; interquartile range, 1-36 months) to make daily preventative therapy worthwhile. Average expected longevity benefit from statins at ages ≥50 years ranges from 3.6 months (low-risk women) to 24.3 months (high-risk men). We can no longer assume that medication disutility is almost zero. Over one-quarter of subjects had disutility exceeding the group-average longevity gain from statins expected even for the highest-risk (ie, highest-gain) group. Future primary prevention studies might explore medication disutility in larger populations. Patients may differ more in disutility than in prospectively definable utility (which provides only group-average estimates). Consultations could be enriched by assessing disutility and exploring its reasons. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Network approach for decision making under risk—How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

PubMed Central

Chen, Yi-Shin

2018-01-01

Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing ‘goal’ and ‘time’ factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight. PMID:29702665

Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

PubMed

Pan, Wei; Chen, Yi-Shin

2018-01-01

Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight.

Effects of combined endurance and strength training on muscle strength, power and hypertrophy in 40-67-year-old men.

PubMed

Karavirta, L; Häkkinen, A; Sillanpää, E; García-López, D; Kauhanen, A; Haapasaari, A; Alen, M; Pakarinen, A; Kraemer, W J; Izquierdo, M; Gorostiaga, E; Häkkinen, K

2011-06-01

Both strength and endurance training have several positive effects on aging muscle and physical performance of middle-aged and older adults, but their combination may compromise optimal adaptation. This study examined the possible interference of combined strength and endurance training on neuromuscular performance and skeletal muscle hypertrophy in previously untrained 40-67-year-old men. Maximal strength and muscle activation in the upper and lower extremities, maximal concentric power, aerobic capacity and muscle fiber size and distribution in the vastus lateralis muscle were measured before and after a 21-week training period. Ninety-six men [mean age 56 (SD 7) years] completed high-intensity strength training (S) twice a week, endurance training (E) twice a week, combined training (SE) four times per week or served as controls (C). SE and S led to similar gains in one repetition maximum strength of the lower extremities [22 (9)% and 21 (8)%, P<0.001], whereas E and C showed minor changes. Cross-sectional area of type II muscle fibers only increased in S [26 (22)%, P=0.002], while SE showed an inconsistent, non-significant change [8 (35)%, P=0.73]. Combined training may interfere with muscle hypertrophy in aging men, despite similar gains in maximal strength between the strength and the combined training groups. © 2009 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

How should leaf area, sapwood area and stomatal conductance vary with tree height to maximize growth?

PubMed

Buckley, Thomas N; Roberts, David W

2006-02-01

Conventional wisdom holds that the ratio of leaf area to sapwood area (L/S) should decline during height (H) growth to maintain hydraulic homeostasis and prevent stomatal conductance (g(s)) from declining. We contend that L/S should increase with H based on a numerical simulation, a mathematical analysis and a conceptual argument: (1) numerical simulation--a tree growth model, DESPOT (Deducing Emergent Structure and Physiology Of Trees), in which carbon (C) allocation is regulated to maximize C gain, predicts L/S should increase during most of H growth; (2) mathematical analysis--the formal criterion for optimal C allocation, applied to a simplified analytical model of whole tree carbon-water balance, predicts L/S should increase with H if leaf-level gas exchange parameters including g(s) are conserved; and (3) conceptual argument--photosynthesis is limited by several substitutable resources (chiefly nitrogen (N), water and light) and H growth increases the C cost of water transport but not necessarily of N and light capture, so if the goal is to maximize C gain or growth, allocation should shift in favor of increasing photosynthetic capacity and irradiance, rather than sustaining g(s). Although many data are consistent with the prediction that L/S should decline with H, many others are not, and we discuss possible reasons for these discrepancies.

Development of robust and multi-mode control of tearing in DIII-D

DOE PAGES

Welander, A. S.; La Haye, R.J.; Humphreys, D. A.; ...

2016-06-02

Neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) are instabilities that can produce undesirable magnetic islands in tokamak plasmas. They can be stabilized by applying electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) at the island. The NTM control system on DIII-D can now control multiple modes. Each of 6 mirrors that reflect ECCD beams into the plasma can be assigned to different surfaces in the plasma where NTMs are unstable. The control system then steers the mirrors to keep the beams aimed at the surfaces. The system routinely stabilizes one NTM preemptively and has now also been used to control two modes in the same discharge.more » With the “catch-and-subdue” function, ECCD-generating gyrotrons can be turned on when NTMs appear and off after suppression. Newly triggered NTMs can be promptly suppressed if mode onset is detected early and ECCD immediately applied. Early mode detection is achieved in this paper by spectral analysis of Mirnov probes with a band-pass filter for the expected mode frequency. Targeted surfaces are tracked by equilibrium reconstructions (that include measurements of the motional Stark effect). The ECCD position is tracked by ray-tracing using the TORBEAM code. Several techniques are being explored for fine-tuning alignment when NTMs occur. One method adjusts ECCD alignment in steps until the island decays fast enough. A second method sweeps the alignment to find the optimum. A third method pulses gyrotrons and uses electron cyclotron emission to compare where the resulting temperature pulses are relative to temperature fluctuations from a rotating NTM. NTM control in ITER is expected to use active profile regulation to maximize controllability, followed by repeated catch-and-subdue actions if modes are retriggered, in order to maintain island size below the disruptive threshold while maximizing confinement and fusion gain. Between events, real-time tracking will be performed to maintain alignment and readiness for subsequent catch-andsubdue actions. Methods for active probing of stability boundaries will be studied as possible diagnostics for the profile regulation. Finally, selected elements of this ITER NTM control vision will be discussed and assessed.« less

Can Monkeys Make Investments Based on Maximized Pay-off?

PubMed Central

Steelandt, Sophie; Dufour, Valérie; Broihanne, Marie-Hélène; Thierry, Bernard

2011-01-01

Animals can maximize benefits but it is not known if they adjust their investment according to expected pay-offs. We investigated whether monkeys can use different investment strategies in an exchange task. We tested eight capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella) and thirteen macaques (Macaca fascicularis, Macaca tonkeana) in an experiment where they could adapt their investment to the food amounts proposed by two different experimenters. One, the doubling partner, returned a reward that was twice the amount given by the subject, whereas the other, the fixed partner, always returned a constant amount regardless of the amount given. To maximize pay-offs, subjects should invest a maximal amount with the first partner and a minimal amount with the second. When tested with the fixed partner only, one third of monkeys learned to remove a maximal amount of food for immediate consumption before investing a minimal one. With both partners, most subjects failed to maximize pay-offs by using different decision rules with each partner' quality. A single Tonkean macaque succeeded in investing a maximal amount to one experimenter and a minimal amount to the other. The fact that only one of over 21 subjects learned to maximize benefits in adapting investment according to experimenters' quality indicates that such a task is difficult for monkeys, albeit not impossible. PMID:21423777

The Impact of Manipulated Self Disclosures on Dating Choice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schneider, Paul A.; Conger, Anthony J.

One overlooked aspect of heterosocial skills is the selection of appropriate goal objects or partners. The tenet of interpersonal attraction that "like attracts like" suggests that individuals could maximize gains by avoiding dissimilar others. Recent findings suggest that variables relating to lifestyle and sensation seeking are more influential…

Growth and physiological responses of isohydric and anisohydric poplars to drought

Treesearch

Ziv Attia; Jean-Christophe Domec; Ram Oren; Danielle A. Way; Menachem Moshelion

2015-01-01

Understanding how different plants prioritize carbon gain and drought vulnerability under a variable water supply is important for predicting which trees will maximize woody biomass production under different environmental conditions. Here, Populus balsamifera (BS, isohydric genotype), P. simonii (SI, previously uncharacterized stomatal behaviour), and their cross, P....

Examining the Quality of Outdoor Play in Chinese Kindergartens

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hu, Bi Ying; Li, Kejian; De Marco, Allison; Chen, Yuewen

2015-01-01

The benefits of outdoor play for children's well-rounded development are maximized when children experience enjoyment and, at the same time, gain physical, motor, cognitive, and social-emotional competence. This study examined the quality of outdoor play in Chinese kindergartens, the dominant form of full-day early childhood education program…

SYNOPTIC ASSESSMENT OF WETLAND FUNCTION: A PLANNING TOOL FOR PROTECTION OF WETLAND SPECIES BIODIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

We present a synoptic assessment intended to maximize the benefits to wetland species biodiversity gained through Clean Water Act regulatory efforts within 225 sub-basins in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (U.S. EPA, Region 7) USA. Our assessment provides a method for identif...

SYNOPTIC ASSESSMENT OF WETLAND FUNCTION: A PLANNING TOOL FOR PROTECTION OF WETLAND SPECIES BIODIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

We present a synoptic assessment intended to maximize the benefits to wetland species biodiversity gained through Clean Water Act regulatory efforts within 225 sub-basins in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (U.S. EPA, Region 7), USA. Our assessment provides a method for identi...

Dynamic Soaring: Aerodynamics for Albatrosses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denny, Mark

2009-01-01

Albatrosses have evolved to soar and glide efficiently. By maximizing their lift-to-drag ratio "L/D", albatrosses can gain energy from the wind and can travel long distances with little effort. We simplify the difficult aerodynamic equations of motion by assuming that albatrosses maintain a constant "L/D". Analytic solutions to the simplified…

Understanding Motivation for Study: Human Capital or Human Capability?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fredman, Nick

2014-01-01

Much research into the reasons students undertake tertiary study is at least implicitly based on rational choice theory: students calculate costs in order to maximize direct individual gain. The policy emphasis on pathways has somewhat broader bases including social inclusion as well as economic productivity, but narrowly focuses on institutional…

Negotiator's checklist: success through preparation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilds, L.J.

In gaining environmental approval for a hydro project, negotiation is a necessity. Strategies for maximizing the success of negotiations are presented. The case study of successful negotiations by the Kodiak Electric Association concerning the Terror Lake project on Kodiak Island, Alaska, is presented. The utility of bringing in professional mediators is discussed.

Are Colombian Sickness Funds Cream Skimming Enrollees? An Analysis with Suggestions for Policy Improvement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trujillo, Antonio J.; McCalla, Dawn C.

2004-01-01

One of the primary objectives of Colombian social health insurance reform was to increase competition among for-profit insurers. Unfortunately, the flat capitated formula creates an opportunity for sickness funds to maximize reimbursement gains by "cream skimming"--selecting against unhealthy individuals. This paper explores sickness…

Integrating Technology to Maximize Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Eric

2007-01-01

Such initiatives as one-to-one computing, laptop learning, and technology immersion are gaining momentum in middle level and high schools, but the key to their success is more than cutting-edge technology. Henrico County Public Schools, a pioneer in educational technology in Virginia, launched a one-to-one computing initiative in 2001. The…

Physical activity types and life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease: the Rotterdam Study.

PubMed

Dhana, Klodian; Koolhaas, Chantal M; Berghout, Mathilde A; Peeters, Anna; Ikram, M Arfan; Tiemeier, Henning; Hofman, Albert; Nusselder, Wilma; Franco, Oscar H

2017-12-01

We aimed to determine the contribution of specific physical activity (PA) types (i.e. walking, cycling, domestic work, sports and gardening) on total life expectancy (LE) and LE with and without cardiovascular disease (CVD). We constructed multistate life tables to calculate the effects of total PA and PA types on LE, among individuals older than 55 years from the Rotterdam Study. For the life table calculations, we used sex-specific prevalences, incident rates and hazard ratios for three transitions (healthy-to-CVD, healthy-to-death and CVD-to-death) by levels of PA and adjusted for confounders. High total PA was associated with gains in total and CVD-free LE. High cycling contributed to higher total LE in men (3.7 years) and women (2.1 years) and higher LE without CVD in men (3.1 years) and women (2.4 years). Total and CVD-free LE were increased by high domestic work in women (2.6 and 2.4 years, respectively) and high gardening in men (2.7 and 2.0 years, respectively). Higher PA levels are associated with increased LE and more years lived without CVD. Of the different PA types, cycling provided high effects in both men and women. Cycling could be more strongly encouraged in activity guidelines to maximize the population benefits of PA. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Evaluating Pretest Effects in Pre-Post Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Eun Sook; Willson, Victor L.

2010-01-01

This article presents a method to evaluate pretest effects on posttest scores in the absence of an un-pretested control group using published results of pretesting effects due to Willson and Putnam. Confidence intervals around the expected theoretical gain due to pretesting are computed, and observed gains or differential gains are compared with…

Evidence for surprise minimization over value maximization in choice behavior

PubMed Central

Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H. B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

2015-01-01

Classical economic models are predicated on the idea that the ultimate aim of choice is to maximize utility or reward. In contrast, an alternative perspective highlights the fact that adaptive behavior requires agents’ to model their environment and minimize surprise about the states they frequent. We propose that choice behavior can be more accurately accounted for by surprise minimization compared to reward or utility maximization alone. Minimizing surprise makes a prediction at variance with expected utility models; namely, that in addition to attaining valuable states, agents attempt to maximize the entropy over outcomes and thus ‘keep their options open’. We tested this prediction using a simple binary choice paradigm and show that human decision-making is better explained by surprise minimization compared to utility maximization. Furthermore, we replicated this entropy-seeking behavior in a control task with no explicit utilities. These findings highlight a limitation of purely economic motivations in explaining choice behavior and instead emphasize the importance of belief-based motivations. PMID:26564686

Homicides In Mexico Reversed Life Expectancy Gains For Men And Slowed Them For Women, 2000–10

PubMed Central

Aburto, José Manuel; Beltrán-Sánchez, Hiram; García-Guerrero, Victor Manuel; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

2017-01-01

Life expectancy in Mexico increased for more than six decades but then stagnated in the period 2000–10. This decade was characterized by the enactment of a major health care reform—the implementation of the Seguro Popular de Salud (Popular Health Insurance), which was intended to provide coverage to the entire Mexican population—and by an unexpected increase in homicide mortality. We assessed the impact on life expectancy of conditions amenable to medical service—those sensitive to public health policies and changes in behaviors, homicide, and diabetes—by analyzing mortality trends at the state level. We found that life expectancy among males deteriorated from 2005 to 2010, compared to increases from 2000 to 2005. Females in most states experienced small gains in life expectancy between 2000 and 2010. The unprecedented rise in homicides after 2005 led to a reversal in life expectancy increases among males and a slowdown among females in most states in the first decade of the twenty-first century. PMID:26733705

Risk aversion and risk seeking in multicriteria forest management: a Markov decision process approach

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Mo Zhou; Craig Johnston

2017-01-01

Markov decision process models were extended to reflect some consequences of the risk attitude of forestry decision makers. One approach consisted of maximizing the expected value of a criterion subject to an upper bound on the variance or, symmetrically, minimizing the variance subject to a lower bound on the expected value.  The other method used the certainty...

Solar thermal upper stage: Economic advantage and development status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Alan M.

1995-01-01

A solar thermal upper stage (STUS) is envisioned as a propulsive concept for the future. The STUS will be used for low Earth orbit (LEO) to geostationary-Earth orbit (GEO) transfer and for planetary exploration missions. The STUS offers significant performance gains over conventional chemical propulsion systems. These performance gains translate into a more economical, more efficient method of placing useful payloads in space and maximizing the benefits derived from space activity. This paper will discuss the economical advantages of an STUS compared to conventional chemical propulsion systems, the potential market for an STUS, and the recent activity in the development of an STUS. The results of this assessment combined with the performance gains, will provide a strong justification for the development of an STUS.

Health Gains and Financial Protection Provided by the Ethiopian Mental Health Strategy: an Extended Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

PubMed Central

Strand, Kirsten Bjerkreim; Fekadu, Abebaw; Chisholm, Dan

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Mental and neurological (MN) health care has long been neglected in low-income settings. This paper estimates health and non-health impacts of fully publicly financed care for selected key interventions in the National Mental Health Strategy in Ethiopia for depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia and epilepsy. Methods: A methodology of extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) is applied to MN health care in Ethiopia. The impact of providing a package of selected MN interventions free of charge in Ethiopia is estimated for: epilepsy (75% coverage, phenobarbital), depression (30% coverage, fluoxetine, cognitive therapy and proactive case management), bipolar affective disorder (50% coverage, valproate and psychosocial therapy) and schizophrenia (75% coverage, haloperidol plus psychosocial treatment). Multiple outcomes are estimated and disaggregated across wealth quintiles: (1) healthy-life-years (HALYs) gained; (2) household out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures averted; (3) expected financial risk protection (FRP); and (4) productivity impact. Results: The MN package is expected to cost US$177 million and gain 155,000 HALYs (epilepsy US$37m and 64,500 HALYs; depression US$65m and 61,300 HALYs; bipolar disorder US$44m and 20,300 HALYs; and schizophrenia US$31m and 8,900 HALYs) annually. The health benefits would be concentrated among the poorest groups for all interventions. Universal public finance averts little household OOP expenditures and provides minimal FRP because of the low current utilization of these MN services in Ethiopia. In addition, economic benefits of US$ 51 million annually are expected from depression treatment in Ethiopia as a result of productivity gains, equivalent to 78% of the investment cost. Conclusions: The total MN package in Ethiopia is estimated to cost equivalent to US$1.8 per capita and yields large progressive health benefits. The expected productivity gain is substantially higher than the expected FRP. The ECEA approach seems to fit well with the current policy challenges and captures important equity concerns of scaling up MN programmes. PMID:27935798

Short-term Periodization Models: Effects on Strength and Speed-strength Performance.

PubMed

Hartmann, Hagen; Wirth, Klaus; Keiner, Michael; Mickel, Christoph; Sander, Andre; Szilvas, Elena

2015-10-01

Dividing training objectives into consecutive phases to gain morphological adaptations (hypertrophy phase) and neural adaptations (strength and power phases) is called strength-power periodization (SPP). These phases differ in program variables (volume, intensity, and exercise choice or type) and use stepwise intensity progression and concomitant decreasing volume, converging to peak intensity (peaking phase). Undulating periodization strategies rotate these program variables in a bi-weekly, weekly, or daily fashion. The following review addresses the effects of different short-term periodization models on strength and speed-strength both with subjects of different performance levels and with competitive athletes from different sports who use a particular periodization model during off-season, pre-season, and in-season conditioning. In most periodization studies, it is obvious that the strength endurance sessions are characterized by repetition zones (12-15 repetitions) that induce muscle hypertrophy in persons with a low performance level. Strictly speaking, when examining subjects with a low training level, many periodization studies include mainly hypertrophy sessions interspersed with heavy strength/power sessions. Studies have demonstrated equal or statistically significant higher gains in maximal strength for daily undulating periodization compared with SPP in subjects with a low to moderate performance level. The relatively short intervention period and the lack of concomitant sports conditioning call into question the practical value of these findings for competitive athletes. Possibly owing to differences in mesocycle length, conditioning programs, and program variables, competitive athletes either maintained or improved strength and/or speed-strength performance by integrating daily undulating periodization and SPP during off-season, pre-season and in-season conditioning. In high-performance sports, high-repetition strength training (>15) should be avoided because it does not provide an adequate training stimulus for gains in muscle cross-sectional area and strength performance. High-volume circuit strength training performed over 2 years negatively affected the development of the power output and maximal strength of the upper extremities in professional rugby players. Indeed, meta-analyses and results with weightlifters, American Football players, and throwers confirm the necessity of the habitual use of ≥80% 1 RM: (1) to improve maximal strength during the off-season and in-season in American Football, (2) to reach peak performance in maximal strength and vertical jump power during tapering in track-and-field, and (3) to produce hypertrophy and strength improvements in advanced athletes. The integration and extent of hypertrophy strength training in in-season conditioning depend on the duration of the contest period, the frequency of the contests, and the proportion of the conditioning program. Based on the literature, 72 h between hypertrophy strength training and strength-power training should be provided to allow for adequate regeneration times and therefore maximal stimulus intensities in training. This conclusion is only valid if the muscle is not trained otherwise during this regeneration phase. Thus, rotating hypertrophy and strength-power sessions in a microcycle during the season is a viable option. Comparative studies in competitive athletes who integrated strength training during pre-season conditioning confirm a tendency for gains in explosive strength and statistically significant improvements in medicine ball throw through SPP but not through daily undulating periodization. These findings indicate that to maximize the speed-strength in the short term (peaking), elite athletes should perform strength-power training twice per week. It is possible to perform a single strength-power session with the method of maximum explosive strength actions moving high-weight loads (90% 1 repetition maximum [RM]) at least 1-2 days before competition because of the shorter regeneration times and potentiation effects. Compared with ballistic strength training (30% 1 RM), this method has been shown to provide statistically superior gains in maximal strength, peak power, impulse size, and explosive strength during tapering in track-and-field throwers. The speed-strength performance in drop jumps of strength-trained subjects showed potentiation effects 48-148 h after a single strength-power training session. Regarding neuromuscular performance, plyometric exercises can even be performed after strength-power training on the same day if a minimum rest period of 3 h is provided.

Maximal sfermion flavour violation in super-GUTs

DOE PAGES

Ellis, John; Olive, Keith A.; Velasco-Sevilla, Liliana

2016-10-20

We consider supersymmetric grand unified theories with soft supersymmetry-breaking scalar masses m 0 specified above the GUT scale (super-GUTs) and patterns of Yukawa couplings motivated by upper limits on flavour-changing interactions beyond the Standard Model. If the scalar masses are smaller than the gaugino masses m 1/2, as is expected in no-scale models, the dominant effects of renormalisation between the input scale and the GUT scale are generally expected to be those due to the gauge couplings, which are proportional to m 1/2 and generation independent. In this case, the input scalar masses m 0 may violate flavour maximally, amore » scenario we call MaxSFV, and there is no supersymmetric flavour problem. As a result, we illustrate this possibility within various specific super-GUT scenarios that are deformations of no-scale gravity« less

Time Series Modeling of Nano-Gold Immunochromatographic Assay via Expectation Maximization Algorithm.

PubMed

Zeng, Nianyin; Wang, Zidong; Li, Yurong; Du, Min; Cao, Jie; Liu, Xiaohui

2013-12-01

In this paper, the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to the modeling of the nano-gold immunochromatographic assay (nano-GICA) via available time series of the measured signal intensities of the test and control lines. The model for the nano-GICA is developed as the stochastic dynamic model that consists of a first-order autoregressive stochastic dynamic process and a noisy measurement. By using the EM algorithm, the model parameters, the actual signal intensities of the test and control lines, as well as the noise intensity can be identified simultaneously. Three different time series data sets concerning the target concentrations are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the introduced algorithm. Several indices are also proposed to evaluate the inferred models. It is shown that the model fits the data very well.

The Naïve Utility Calculus: Computational Principles Underlying Commonsense Psychology.

PubMed

Jara-Ettinger, Julian; Gweon, Hyowon; Schulz, Laura E; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2016-08-01

We propose that human social cognition is structured around a basic understanding of ourselves and others as intuitive utility maximizers: from a young age, humans implicitly assume that agents choose goals and actions to maximize the rewards they expect to obtain relative to the costs they expect to incur. This 'naïve utility calculus' allows both children and adults observe the behavior of others and infer their beliefs and desires, their longer-term knowledge and preferences, and even their character: who is knowledgeable or competent, who is praiseworthy or blameworthy, who is friendly, indifferent, or an enemy. We review studies providing support for the naïve utility calculus, and we show how it captures much of the rich social reasoning humans engage in from infancy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fitting Nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equation Models with Random Effects and Unknown Initial Conditions Using the Stochastic Approximation Expectation-Maximization (SAEM) Algorithm.

PubMed

Chow, Sy-Miin; Lu, Zhaohua; Sherwood, Andrew; Zhu, Hongtu

2016-03-01

The past decade has evidenced the increased prevalence of irregularly spaced longitudinal data in social sciences. Clearly lacking, however, are modeling tools that allow researchers to fit dynamic models to irregularly spaced data, particularly data that show nonlinearity and heterogeneity in dynamical structures. We consider the issue of fitting multivariate nonlinear differential equation models with random effects and unknown initial conditions to irregularly spaced data. A stochastic approximation expectation-maximization algorithm is proposed and its performance is evaluated using a benchmark nonlinear dynamical systems model, namely, the Van der Pol oscillator equations. The empirical utility of the proposed technique is illustrated using a set of 24-h ambulatory cardiovascular data from 168 men and women. Pertinent methodological challenges and unresolved issues are discussed.

Clustering performance comparison using K-means and expectation maximization algorithms.

PubMed

Jung, Yong Gyu; Kang, Min Soo; Heo, Jun

2014-11-14

Clustering is an important means of data mining based on separating data categories by similar features. Unlike the classification algorithm, clustering belongs to the unsupervised type of algorithms. Two representatives of the clustering algorithms are the K -means and the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Linear regression analysis was extended to the category-type dependent variable, while logistic regression was achieved using a linear combination of independent variables. To predict the possibility of occurrence of an event, a statistical approach is used. However, the classification of all data by means of logistic regression analysis cannot guarantee the accuracy of the results. In this paper, the logistic regression analysis is applied to EM clusters and the K -means clustering method for quality assessment of red wine, and a method is proposed for ensuring the accuracy of the classification results.

a Threshold-Free Filtering Algorithm for Airborne LIDAR Point Clouds Based on Expectation-Maximization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Z.; Cheng, P.; Ziggah, Y. Y.; Nie, Y.

2018-04-01

Filtering is a key step for most applications of airborne LiDAR point clouds. Although lots of filtering algorithms have been put forward in recent years, most of them suffer from parameters setting or thresholds adjusting, which will be time-consuming and reduce the degree of automation of the algorithm. To overcome this problem, this paper proposed a threshold-free filtering algorithm based on expectation-maximization. The proposed algorithm is developed based on an assumption that point clouds are seen as a mixture of Gaussian models. The separation of ground points and non-ground points from point clouds can be replaced as a separation of a mixed Gaussian model. Expectation-maximization (EM) is applied for realizing the separation. EM is used to calculate maximum likelihood estimates of the mixture parameters. Using the estimated parameters, the likelihoods of each point belonging to ground or object can be computed. After several iterations, point clouds can be labelled as the component with a larger likelihood. Furthermore, intensity information was also utilized to optimize the filtering results acquired using the EM method. The proposed algorithm was tested using two different datasets used in practice. Experimental results showed that the proposed method can filter non-ground points effectively. To quantitatively evaluate the proposed method, this paper adopted the dataset provided by the ISPRS for the test. The proposed algorithm can obtain a 4.48 % total error which is much lower than most of the eight classical filtering algorithms reported by the ISPRS.

Did people "buy" what was "sold"? A qualitative evaluation of a contingent valuation survey information set for gains in life expectancy.

PubMed

Baker, R; Bartczak, A; Chilton, S; Metcalf, H

2014-01-15

A number of stated preferences studies have estimated a monetary value for the gains in life expectancy resulting from pollution control, using a Value of a Life Year (VOLY) approach. However, life expectancy gains are a complex concept and no attempt has been made, to date, to investigate peoples' understanding of what it is they are being asked to value. Past practice has been to focus on the outcome of a policy i.e. a gain to the average person of X months', providing no details on how the individual receives, or experiences this gain, a potentially important attribute to value. This paper sets up and reports the results from a structured debriefing exercise to qualitatively investigate an alternative approach which explicitly emphasises how this gain is delivered (on-going reductions in the risk of death). We find that, for the majority of respondents, the approach is effective in communicating the on-going nature of the gain and reduces or eliminates the use of the (incorrect) heuristic that it is an 'add-on' at the end of life, in poor health. Further refinements are required, however, to communicate the cumulative nature of these risk reductions and the lack of impact on quality of life. The lesson for stated preference studies in general is that structured debriefings can be very useful, highlighting such issues as the persistence of ill-defined attributes and the difficulties that respondents may encounter setting aside their preferences over attributes of the good that should not be included in the valuation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimum Sensors Integration for Multi-Sensor Multi-Target Environment for Ballistic Missile Defense Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Imam, Neena; Barhen, Jacob; Glover, Charles Wayne

2012-01-01

Multi-sensor networks may face resource limitations in a dynamically evolving multiple target tracking scenario. It is necessary to task the sensors efficiently so that the overall system performance is maximized within the system constraints. The central sensor resource manager may control the sensors to meet objective functions that are formulated to meet system goals such as minimization of track loss, maximization of probability of target detection, and minimization of track error. This paper discusses the variety of techniques that may be utilized to optimize sensor performance for either near term gain or future reward over a longer time horizon.

Economic evaluation of genomic selection in small ruminants: a sheep meat breeding program.

PubMed

Shumbusho, F; Raoul, J; Astruc, J M; Palhiere, I; Lemarié, S; Fugeray-Scarbel, A; Elsen, J M

2016-06-01

Recent genomic evaluation studies using real data and predicting genetic gain by modeling breeding programs have reported moderate expected benefits from the replacement of classic selection schemes by genomic selection (GS) in small ruminants. The objectives of this study were to compare the cost, monetary genetic gain and economic efficiency of classic selection and GS schemes in the meat sheep industry. Deterministic methods were used to model selection based on multi-trait indices from a sheep meat breeding program. Decisional variables related to male selection candidates and progeny testing were optimized to maximize the annual monetary genetic gain (AMGG), that is, a weighted sum of meat and maternal traits annual genetic gains. For GS, a reference population of 2000 individuals was assumed and genomic information was available for evaluation of male candidates only. In the classic selection scheme, males breeding values were estimated from own and offspring phenotypes. In GS, different scenarios were considered, differing by the information used to select males (genomic only, genomic+own performance, genomic+offspring phenotypes). The results showed that all GS scenarios were associated with higher total variable costs than classic selection (if the cost of genotyping was 123 euros/animal). In terms of AMGG and economic returns, GS scenarios were found to be superior to classic selection only if genomic information was combined with their own meat phenotypes (GS-Pheno) or with their progeny test information. The predicted economic efficiency, defined as returns (proportional to number of expressions of AMGG in the nucleus and commercial flocks) minus total variable costs, showed that the best GS scenario (GS-Pheno) was up to 15% more efficient than classic selection. For all selection scenarios, optimization increased the overall AMGG, returns and economic efficiency. As a conclusion, our study shows that some forms of GS strategies are more advantageous than classic selection, provided that GS is already initiated (i.e. the initial reference population is available). Optimizing decisional variables of the classic selection scheme could be of greater benefit than including genomic information in optimized designs.

Optimization of Multiple Related Negotiation through Multi-Negotiation Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Fenghui; Zhang, Minjie; Miao, Chunyan; Shen, Zhiqi

In this paper, a Multi-Negotiation Network (MNN) and a Multi- Negotiation Influence Diagram (MNID) are proposed to optimally handle Multiple Related Negotiations (MRN) in a multi-agent system. Most popular, state-of-the-art approaches perform MRN sequentially. However, a sequential procedure may not optimally execute MRN in terms of maximizing the global outcome, and may even lead to unnecessary losses in some situations. The motivation of this research is to use a MNN to handle MRN concurrently so as to maximize the expected utility of MRN. Firstly, both the joint success rate and the joint utility by considering all related negotiations are dynamically calculated based on a MNN. Secondly, by employing a MNID, an agent's possible decision on each related negotiation is reflected by the value of expected utility. Lastly, through comparing expected utilities between all possible policies to conduct MRN, an optimal policy is generated to optimize the global outcome of MRN. The experimental results indicate that the proposed approach can improve the global outcome of MRN in a successful end scenario, and avoid unnecessary losses in an unsuccessful end scenario.

Network clustering and community detection using modulus of families of loops.

PubMed

Shakeri, Heman; Poggi-Corradini, Pietro; Albin, Nathan; Scoglio, Caterina

2017-01-01

We study the structure of loops in networks using the notion of modulus of loop families. We introduce an alternate measure of network clustering by quantifying the richness of families of (simple) loops. Modulus tries to minimize the expected overlap among loops by spreading the expected link usage optimally. We propose weighting networks using these expected link usages to improve classical community detection algorithms. We show that the proposed method enhances the performance of certain algorithms, such as spectral partitioning and modularity maximization heuristics, on standard benchmarks.

Fault Network Reconstruction using Agglomerative Clustering: Applications to South Californian Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamer, Yavor; Ouillon, Guy; Sornette, Didier; Wössner, Jochen

2014-05-01

We present applications of a new clustering method for fault network reconstruction based on the spatial distribution of seismicity. Unlike common approaches that start from the simplest large scale and gradually increase the complexity trying to explain the small scales, our method uses a bottom-up approach, by an initial sampling of the small scales and then reducing the complexity. The new approach also exploits the location uncertainty associated with each event in order to obtain a more accurate representation of the spatial probability distribution of the seismicity. For a given dataset, we first construct an agglomerative hierarchical cluster (AHC) tree based on Ward's minimum variance linkage. Such a tree starts out with one cluster and progressively branches out into an increasing number of clusters. To atomize the structure into its constitutive protoclusters, we initialize a Gaussian Mixture Modeling (GMM) at a given level of the hierarchical clustering tree. We then let the GMM converge using an Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The kernels that become ill defined (less than 4 points) at the end of the EM are discarded. By incrementing the number of initialization clusters (by atomizing at increasingly populated levels of the AHC tree) and repeating the procedure above, we are able to determine the maximum number of Gaussian kernels the structure can hold. The kernels in this configuration constitute our protoclusters. In this setting, merging of any pair will lessen the likelihood (calculated over the pdf of the kernels) but in turn will reduce the model's complexity. The information loss/gain of any possible merging can thus be quantified based on the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle. Similar to an inter-distance matrix, where the matrix element di,j gives the distance between points i and j, we can construct a MDL gain/loss matrix where mi,j gives the information gain/loss resulting from the merging of kernels i and j. Based on this matrix, merging events resulting in MDL gain are performed in descending order until no gainful merging is possible anymore. We envision that the results of this study could lead to a better understanding of the complex interactions within the Californian fault system and hopefully use the acquired insights for earthquake forecasting.

Single- vs. Multiple-Set Strength Training in Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schlumberger, Andreas; Stec, Justyna; Schmidtbleicher, Dietmar

2001-01-01

Compared the effects of single- and multiple-set strength training in women with basic experience in resistance training. Both training groups had significant strength improvements in leg extension. In the seated bench press, only the three-set group showed a significant increase in maximal strength. There were higher strength gains overall in the…

Developing a Tool for the Location Optimization of the Alert Aircraft with Changing Threat Anticipation

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

encountered. From individuals to large industries , people deal with such problems in order to maximize the benefit and gain. Third, the effect of the...Format”. http://www.cenapad.unicamp.br/ parque /manuais/OSL/oslweb/features/featur11.htm 17 December 2008 Chhajed, Dilip, Richard L. Francis, and

Multiplex sequencing of plant chloroplast genomes using Solexa sequencing-by-synthesis technology

Treesearch

Richard Cronn; Aaron Liston; Matthew Parks; David S. Gernandt; Rongkun Shen; Todd Mockler

2008-01-01

Organellar DNA sequences are widely used in evolutionary and population genetic studies; however, the conservative nature of chloroplast gene and genome evolution often limits phylogenetic resolution and statistical power. To gain maximal access to the historical record contained within chloroplast genomes, we have adapted multiplex sequencing-by-synthesis (MSBS) to...

Maxims, Tacit Knowledge and Learning: Developing Expertise in Dry Stone Walling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farrar, Nicholas; Trorey, Gill

2008-01-01

This study attempts to further our understanding of how expertise is acquired in a specific vocational context. Using unstructured interviews with both individuals and groups, carried out whilst engaged in practice, it examines what happens when dry stone wallers are developing their skills, how they gain expertise and how they communicate their…

Genetic parameters and prediction of breeding values in switchgrass bred for bioenergy

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Estimating genetic parameters is an essential step in breeding by recurrent selection to maximize genetic gains over time. This study evaluated the effects of selection on genetic variation across two successive cycles (C1 and C2) of a ‘Summer’x‘Kanlow’ switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) population. ...

Establishing an Environmental Scanning System to Augment College and University Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, James L.

A plan to establish an environmental scanning and forecasting system for colleges and universities is discussed as a way to maximize long-range planning. After proposing a program structure, attention is directed to methods of gaining organizational acceptance, developing a comprehensive taxonomy with an electronic filing system, identifying and…

E-learning in Multicultural Environments: An Analysis of Online Flight Attendant Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Brito Neto, Jose Felix; Smith, MaryJo; Pedersen, David

2014-01-01

Throughout the first decade of this century, financial challenges in the airline industry compelled airlines to maximize competitive advantage through a focus on human resource management. Consequently, e-learning gained increasing attention as it imparted knowledge on an asynchronous and global basis with substantially reduced costs. However,…

A Review and Synthesis of Research on Women in the World of Work.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kievit, Mary Bach

Materials dealing with gainful employment of women, opportunities for employment and advancement, and maximizing opportunities as a means of personal satisfaction and as a contribution to society, were reviewed from the international and national perspective, and as current trends and issues. Realizing that vocational educators have a vital role…

Optimal Resource Allocation in Library Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rouse, William B.

1975-01-01

Queueing theory is used to model processes as either waiting or balking processes. The optimal allocation of resources to these processes is defined as that which maximizes the expected value of the decision-maker's utility function. (Author)

Transformer-Feedback Interstage Bandwidth Enhancement for MMIC Multistage Amplifiers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikandish, Gholamreza; Medi, Ali

2015-02-01

The transformer-feedback (TRFB) interstage bandwidth enhancement technique for broadband multistage amplifiers is presented. Theory of the TRFB bandwidth enhancement and the design conditions for maximum bandwidth, maximally flat gain, and maximally flat group delay are provided. It is shown that the TRFB bandwidth enhancement can provide higher bandwidth compared to the conventional techniques based on reactive impedance matching networks. A three-stage low-noise amplifier (LNA) monolithic microwave integrated circuit with the TRFB between its consecutive stages is designed and implemented in a 0.1- μm GaAs pHEMT process. The TRFB is realized by coupling between the drain bias lines of transistors. The reuse of bias lines leads to bandwidth enhancement without increasing the chip area and power consumption. The LNA features average gain of 23 dB and 3-dB bandwidth of 11-39 GHz. It provides a noise figure of 2.1-3.0 dB and an output 1-dB compression point of 8.6 dBm, while consuming 40 mA of current from a 2-V supply.

Chronic motivational state interacts with task reward structure in dynamic decision-making.

PubMed

Cooper, Jessica A; Worthy, Darrell A; Maddox, W Todd

2015-12-01

Research distinguishes between a habitual, model-free system motivated toward immediately rewarding actions, and a goal-directed, model-based system motivated toward actions that improve future state. We examined the balance of processing in these two systems during state-based decision-making. We tested a regulatory fit hypothesis (Maddox & Markman, 2010) that predicts that global trait motivation affects the balance of habitual- vs. goal-directed processing but only through its interaction with the task framing as gain-maximization or loss-minimization. We found support for the hypothesis that a match between an individual's chronic motivational state and the task framing enhances goal-directed processing, and thus state-based decision-making. Specifically, chronic promotion-focused individuals under gain-maximization and chronic prevention-focused individuals under loss-minimization both showed enhanced state-based decision-making. Computational modeling indicates that individuals in a match between global chronic motivational state and local task reward structure engaged more goal-directed processing, whereas those in a mismatch engaged more habitual processing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Colonization Habitat Controls Biomass, Composition, and Metabolic Activity of Attached Microbial Communities in the Columbia River Hyporheic Corridor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stern, Noah; Ginder-Vogel, Matthew; Stegen, James C.

Hydrologic exchange plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycling within the hyporheic zone (the interface between river water and groundwater) of riverine ecosystems. Such exchange may set limits on the rates of microbial metabolism and impose deterministic selection on microbial communities that adapt to dynamically changing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) sources. This study examined the response of attached microbial communities (in situcolonized sand packs) from groundwater, hyporheic, and riverbed habitats within the Columbia River hyporheic corridor to “cross-feeding” with either groundwater, river water, or DOC-free artificial fluids. Our working hypothesis was that deterministic selection duringin situcolonization would dictate the responsemore » to cross-feeding, with communities displaying maximal biomass and respiration when supplied with their native fluid source. In contrast to expectations, the major observation was that the riverbed colonized sand had much higher biomass and respiratory activity, as well as a distinct community structure, compared with those of the hyporheic and groundwater colonized sands. 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing revealed a much higher proportion of certain heterotrophic taxa as well as significant numbers of eukaryotic algal chloroplasts in the riverbed colonized sand. Significant quantities of DOC were released from riverbed sediment and colonized sand, and separate experiments showed that the released DOC stimulated respiration in the groundwater and piezometer colonized sand. These results suggest that the accumulation and degradation of labile particulate organic carbon (POC) within the riverbed are likely to release DOC, which may enter the hyporheic corridor during hydrologic exchange, thereby stimulating microbial activity and imposing deterministic selective pressure on the microbial community composition. IMPORTANCEThe influence of river water-groundwater mixing on hyporheic zone microbial community structure and function is an important but poorly understood component of riverine biogeochemistry. This study employed an experimental approach to gain insight into how such mixing might be expected to influence the biomass, respiration, and composition of hyporheic zone microbial communities. Colonized sands from three different habitats (groundwater, river water, and hyporheic) were “cross-fed” with either groundwater, river water, or DOC-free artificial fluids. We expected that the colonization history would dictate the response to cross-feeding, with communities displaying maximal biomass and respiration when supplied with their native fluid source. By contrast, the major observation was that the riverbed communities had much higher biomass and respiration, as well as a distinct community structure compared with those of the hyporheic and groundwater colonized sands. These results highlight the importance of riverbed microbial metabolism in organic carbon processing in hyporheic corridors.« less

Estimation of teleported and gained parameters in a non-inertial frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metwally, N.

2017-04-01

Quantum Fisher information is introduced as a measure of estimating the teleported information between two users, one of which is uniformly accelerated. We show that the final teleported state depends on the initial parameters, in addition to the gained parameters during the teleportation process. The estimation degree of these parameters depends on the value of the acceleration, the used single mode approximation (within/beyond), the type of encoded information (classic/quantum) in the teleported state, and the entanglement of the initial communication channel. The estimation degree of the parameters can be maximized if the partners teleport classical information.

Quantitative analysis of four EMG amplifiers.

PubMed

Perreault, E J; Hunter, I W; Kearney, R E

1993-09-01

Four typical EMG amplifiers were tested quantitatively to observe the diversity and specificity of available equipment. Gain, phase, common mode rejection ratio (CMRR) and noise characteristics were measured for each device. Various gain and phase responses were observed, each best suited to specific application areas. For all amplifiers, the CMRR was shown to decrease dramatically in the presence of input impedance mismatches of more than 10 k omega between the two electrodes. Because such impedance mismatches are common on the skin surface, these results indicate that proper skin preparation is required to maximize the noise rejection capabilities of the tested amplifiers.

The Dynamics of Crime and Punishment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hausken, Kjell; Moxnes, John F.

This article analyzes crime development which is one of the largest threats in today's world, frequently referred to as the war on crime. The criminal commits crimes in his free time (when not in jail) according to a non-stationary Poisson process which accounts for fluctuations. Expected values and variances for crime development are determined. The deterrent effect of imprisonment follows from the amount of time in imprisonment. Each criminal maximizes expected utility defined as expected benefit (from crime) minus expected cost (imprisonment). A first-order differential equation of the criminal's utility-maximizing response to the given punishment policy is then developed. The analysis shows that if imprisonment is absent, criminal activity grows substantially. All else being equal, any equilibrium is unstable (labile), implying growth of criminal activity, unless imprisonment increases sufficiently as a function of criminal activity. This dynamic approach or perspective is quite interesting and has to our knowledge not been presented earlier. The empirical data material for crime intensity and imprisonment for Norway, England and Wales, and the US supports the model. Future crime development is shown to depend strongly on the societally chosen imprisonment policy. The model is intended as a valuable tool for policy makers who can envision arbitrarily sophisticated imprisonment functions and foresee the impact they have on crime development.

Acceptable regret in medical decision making.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, B; Hozo, I; Schwartz, A; McMasters, K M

1999-09-01

When faced with medical decisions involving uncertain outcomes, the principles of decision theory hold that we should select the option with the highest expected utility to maximize health over time. Whether a decision proves right or wrong can be learned only in retrospect, when it may become apparent that another course of action would have been preferable. This realization may bring a sense of loss, or regret. When anticipated regret is compelling, a decision maker may choose to violate expected utility theory to avoid regret. We formulate a concept of acceptable regret in medical decision making that explicitly introduces the patient's attitude toward loss of health due to a mistaken decision into decision making. In most cases, minimizing expected regret results in the same decision as maximizing expected utility. However, when acceptable regret is taken into consideration, the threshold probability below which we can comfortably withhold treatment is a function only of the net benefit of the treatment, and the threshold probability above which we can comfortably administer the treatment depends only on the magnitude of the risks associated with the therapy. By considering acceptable regret, we develop new conceptual relations that can help decide whether treatment should be withheld or administered, especially when the diagnosis is uncertain. This may be particularly beneficial in deciding what constitutes futile medical care.

Conditions for coherent-synchrotron-radiation-induced microbunching suppression in multibend beam transport or recirculation arcs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C.-Y.; Di Mitri, S.; Douglas, D.; Li, R.; Tennant, C.

2017-02-01

The coherent synchrotron radiation (CSR) of a high-brightness electron beam traversing a series of dipoles, such as transport or recirculation arcs, may result in beam phase space degradation. On one hand, CSR can perturb electron transverse motion in dispersive regions along the beam line and possibly cause emittance growth. On the other hand, the CSR effect on the longitudinal beam dynamics could result in microbunching instability. For transport arcs, several schemes have been proposed to suppress the CSR-induced emittance growth. Correspondingly, a few scenarios have been introduced to suppress CSR-induced microbunching instability, which however mostly aim for linac-based machines. In this paper we provide sufficient conditions for suppression of CSR-induced microbunching instability along transport or recirculation arcs. Examples are presented with the relevant microbunching analyses carried out by our developed semianalytical Vlasov solver [C.-Y. Tsai, D. Douglas, R. Li, and C. Tennant, Linear microbunching analysis for recirculation machines, Phys. Rev. ST Accel. Beams 19, 114401 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevAccelBeams.19.114401]. The example lattices include low-energy (˜100 MeV ) and high-energy (˜1 GeV ) recirculation arcs, and medium-energy compressor arcs. Our studies show that lattices satisfying the proposed conditions indeed have microbunching gain suppressed. Beam current dependences of maximal CSR microbunching gains are also demonstrated, which should help outline a beam line design for different scales of nominal currents. We expect this analysis can shed light on the lattice design approach that aims to control the CSR-induced microbunching.

Perceptions of per diems in the health sector: evidence and implications

PubMed Central

Vian, Taryn; Miller, Candace; Themba, Zione; Bukuluki, Paul

2013-01-01

Per diems are used to pay work-related expenses and motivate employees, yet they also can distort incentives and may be abused. This study was designed to explore perceptions of per diems among 41 high-, mid- and low-level government officers and non-governmental organization (NGO) officials in Malawi and Uganda. Interviews explored attitudes about per diems, benefits and problems for organizations and individuals, and risks and patterns of abuse. The study found that per diems provide benefits such as encouraging training, increasing staff motivation and supplementing salary. Despite these advantages, respondents voiced many discontents about per diems, stating that they create conflict, contribute to a negative organizational culture where people expect to be paid for all activities, and lead to negative changes in work time allocation. Work practices are also manipulated in order to maximize financial gain by slowing work, scheduling unnecessary trainings, or exaggerating time needed for tasks. Officials may appropriate per diems meant for others or engage in various forms of fraud for personal financial gain. Abuse seemed more common in the government sector due to low pay and weaker controls. A striking finding was the distrust that lower-level workers felt toward their superiors: allowances were perceived to provide unfair financial advantages to already better-off and well-connected staff. To curb abuse of per diems, initiatives must reduce pressures and incentives to abuse, while controlling discretion and increasing transparency in policy implementation. Donors can play a role in reform by supporting development of policy analysis tools, design of control mechanisms and evaluation of reform strategies. PMID:22684639

Perceptions of per diems in the health sector: evidence and implications.

PubMed

Vian, Taryn; Miller, Candace; Themba, Zione; Bukuluki, Paul

2013-05-01

Per diems are used to pay work-related expenses and motivate employees, yet they also can distort incentives and may be abused. This study was designed to explore perceptions of per diems among 41 high-, mid- and low-level government officers and non-governmental organization (NGO) officials in Malawi and Uganda. Interviews explored attitudes about per diems, benefits and problems for organizations and individuals, and risks and patterns of abuse. The study found that per diems provide benefits such as encouraging training, increasing staff motivation and supplementing salary. Despite these advantages, respondents voiced many discontents about per diems, stating that they create conflict, contribute to a negative organizational culture where people expect to be paid for all activities, and lead to negative changes in work time allocation. Work practices are also manipulated in order to maximize financial gain by slowing work, scheduling unnecessary trainings, or exaggerating time needed for tasks. Officials may appropriate per diems meant for others or engage in various forms of fraud for personal financial gain. Abuse seemed more common in the government sector due to low pay and weaker controls. A striking finding was the distrust that lower-level workers felt toward their superiors: allowances were perceived to provide unfair financial advantages to already better-off and well-connected staff. To curb abuse of per diems, initiatives must reduce pressures and incentives to abuse, while controlling discretion and increasing transparency in policy implementation. Donors can play a role in reform by supporting development of policy analysis tools, design of control mechanisms and evaluation of reform strategies.

Maximization, learning, and economic behavior

PubMed Central

Erev, Ido; Roth, Alvin E.

2014-01-01

The rationality assumption that underlies mainstream economic theory has proved to be a useful approximation, despite the fact that systematic violations to its predictions can be found. That is, the assumption of rational behavior is useful in understanding the ways in which many successful economic institutions function, although it is also true that actual human behavior falls systematically short of perfect rationality. We consider a possible explanation of this apparent inconsistency, suggesting that mechanisms that rest on the rationality assumption are likely to be successful when they create an environment in which the behavior they try to facilitate leads to the best payoff for all agents on average, and most of the time. Review of basic learning research suggests that, under these conditions, people quickly learn to maximize expected return. This review also shows that there are many situations in which experience does not increase maximization. In many cases, experience leads people to underweight rare events. In addition, the current paper suggests that it is convenient to distinguish between two behavioral approaches to improve economic analyses. The first, and more conventional approach among behavioral economists and psychologists interested in judgment and decision making, highlights violations of the rational model and proposes descriptive models that capture these violations. The second approach studies human learning to clarify the conditions under which people quickly learn to maximize expected return. The current review highlights one set of conditions of this type and shows how the understanding of these conditions can facilitate market design. PMID:25024182

Maximization, learning, and economic behavior.

PubMed

Erev, Ido; Roth, Alvin E

2014-07-22

The rationality assumption that underlies mainstream economic theory has proved to be a useful approximation, despite the fact that systematic violations to its predictions can be found. That is, the assumption of rational behavior is useful in understanding the ways in which many successful economic institutions function, although it is also true that actual human behavior falls systematically short of perfect rationality. We consider a possible explanation of this apparent inconsistency, suggesting that mechanisms that rest on the rationality assumption are likely to be successful when they create an environment in which the behavior they try to facilitate leads to the best payoff for all agents on average, and most of the time. Review of basic learning research suggests that, under these conditions, people quickly learn to maximize expected return. This review also shows that there are many situations in which experience does not increase maximization. In many cases, experience leads people to underweight rare events. In addition, the current paper suggests that it is convenient to distinguish between two behavioral approaches to improve economic analyses. The first, and more conventional approach among behavioral economists and psychologists interested in judgment and decision making, highlights violations of the rational model and proposes descriptive models that capture these violations. The second approach studies human learning to clarify the conditions under which people quickly learn to maximize expected return. The current review highlights one set of conditions of this type and shows how the understanding of these conditions can facilitate market design.

Learning and exploration in action-perception loops.

PubMed

Little, Daniel Y; Sommer, Friedrich T

2013-01-01

Discovering the structure underlying observed data is a recurring problem in machine learning with important applications in neuroscience. It is also a primary function of the brain. When data can be actively collected in the context of a closed action-perception loop, behavior becomes a critical determinant of learning efficiency. Psychologists studying exploration and curiosity in humans and animals have long argued that learning itself is a primary motivator of behavior. However, the theoretical basis of learning-driven behavior is not well understood. Previous computational studies of behavior have largely focused on the control problem of maximizing acquisition of rewards and have treated learning the structure of data as a secondary objective. Here, we study exploration in the absence of external reward feedback. Instead, we take the quality of an agent's learned internal model to be the primary objective. In a simple probabilistic framework, we derive a Bayesian estimate for the amount of information about the environment an agent can expect to receive by taking an action, a measure we term the predicted information gain (PIG). We develop exploration strategies that approximately maximize PIG. One strategy based on value-iteration consistently learns faster than previously developed reward-free exploration strategies across a diverse range of environments. Psychologists believe the evolutionary advantage of learning-driven exploration lies in the generalized utility of an accurate internal model. Consistent with this hypothesis, we demonstrate that agents which learn more efficiently during exploration are later better able to accomplish a range of goal-directed tasks. We will conclude by discussing how our work elucidates the explorative behaviors of animals and humans, its relationship to other computational models of behavior, and its potential application to experimental design, such as in closed-loop neurophysiology studies.

Whites but Not Blacks Gain Life Expectancy from Social Contacts.

PubMed

Assari, Shervin

2017-10-16

Background . Recent research suggests that the health gain from economic resources and psychological assets may be systematically larger for Whites than Blacks. Aim . This study aimed to assess whether the life expectancy gain associated with social contacts over a long follow up differs for Blacks and Whites. Methods . Data came from the Americans' Changing Lives (ACL) Study, 1986-2011. The sample was a nationally representative sample of American adults 25 and older, who were followed for up to 25 years ( n = 3361). Outcome was all-cause mortality. The main predictor was social contacts defined as number of regular visits with friends, relatives, and neighbors. Baseline demographics (age and gender), socioeconomic status (education, income, and employment), health behaviors (smoking and drinking), and health (chronic medical conditions, obesity, and depressive symptoms) were controlled. Race was the focal moderator. Cox proportional hazard models were used in the pooled sample and based on race. Results . More social contacts predicted higher life expectancy in the pooled sample. A significant interaction was found between race and social contacts, suggesting that the protective effect of more social contacts is smaller for Blacks than Whites. In stratified models, more social contacts predicted an increased life expectancy for Whites but not Blacks. Conclusion . Social contacts increase life expectancy for White but not Black Americans. This study introduces social contacts as another social resource that differentially affects health of Whites and Blacks.

Phenomenology of maximal and near-maximal lepton mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Garcia, M. C.; Peña-Garay, Carlos; Nir, Yosef; Smirnov, Alexei Yu.

2001-01-01

The possible existence of maximal or near-maximal lepton mixing constitutes an intriguing challenge for fundamental theories of flavor. We study the phenomenological consequences of maximal and near-maximal mixing of the electron neutrino with other (x=tau and/or muon) neutrinos. We describe the deviations from maximal mixing in terms of a parameter ɛ≡1-2 sin2 θex and quantify the present experimental status for \\|ɛ\\|<0.3. We show that both probabilities and observables depend on ɛ quadratically when effects are due to vacuum oscillations and they depend on ɛ linearly if matter effects dominate. The most important information on νe mixing comes from solar neutrino experiments. We find that the global analysis of solar neutrino data allows maximal mixing with confidence level better than 99% for 10-8 eV2<~Δm2<~2×10-7 eV2. In the mass ranges Δm2>~1.5×10-5 eV2 and 4×10-10 eV2<~Δm2<~2×10-7 eV2 the full interval \\|ɛ\\|<0.3 is allowed within ~4σ (99.995% CL) We suggest ways to measure ɛ in future experiments. The observable that is most sensitive to ɛ is the rate [NC]/[CC] in combination with the day-night asymmetry in the SNO detector. With theoretical and statistical uncertainties, the expected accuracy after 5 years is Δɛ~0.07. We also discuss the effects of maximal and near-maximal νe mixing in atmospheric neutrinos, supernova neutrinos, and neutrinoless double beta decay.

Increased Life Expectancy in New York City, 2001-2010: An Exploration by Cause of Death and Demographic Characteristics.

PubMed

Li, Wenhui; Maduro, Gil A; Begier, Elizabeth M

2016-01-01

New York City's (NYC's) life expectancy gains have been greater than those seen nationally. We examined life-expectancy changes over the past decade in selected NYC subpopulations and explored which age groups and causes of death contributed most to the increases. We calculated life expectancy with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 2001-2010 by sex and race/ethnicity. Life expectancy was decomposed by age group and cause of death. Logistic regressions were conducted to reinforce the results from decomposition by controlling confounders. Overall, NYC residents' life expectancy at birth increased from 77.9 years (95% CI, 77.8-78.0) in 2001 to 80.9 years (95% CI, 80.8-81.0) in 2010. Decreases in deaths from heart disease, cancer, and HIV disease accounted for 50%, 16%, and 11%, respectively, of the gains. Decreased mortality in older age groups (≥65 years) accounted for 45.6% of the overall change. Life expectancy increased for both sexes, across all racial/ethnic groups, and for both the US-born and the foreign-born. Disparities in life expectancy decreased as overall life expectancy increased. Decreased mortality among older adults and from heart disease, cancer, and HIV infection accounted for most of the increases.

Assessing park-and-ride impacts.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-06-01

Efficient transportation systems are vital to quality-of-life and mobility issues, and an effective park-and-ride (P&R) : network can help maximize system performance. Properly placed P&R facilities are expected to result in fewer calls : to increase...

Three faces of node importance in network epidemiology: Exact results for small graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holme, Petter

2017-12-01

We investigate three aspects of the importance of nodes with respect to susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) disease dynamics: influence maximization (the expected outbreak size given a set of seed nodes), the effect of vaccination (how much deleting nodes would reduce the expected outbreak size), and sentinel surveillance (how early an outbreak could be detected with sensors at a set of nodes). We calculate the exact expressions of these quantities, as functions of the SIR parameters, for all connected graphs of three to seven nodes. We obtain the smallest graphs where the optimal node sets are not overlapping. We find that (i) node separation is more important than centrality for more than one active node, (ii) vaccination and influence maximization are the most different aspects of importance, and (iii) the three aspects are more similar when the infection rate is low.

Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion

PubMed Central

Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

2015-01-01

Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification. PMID:26558436

Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

PubMed

Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

2015-11-12

Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

Expected Power-Utility Maximization Under Incomplete Information and with Cox-Process Observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fujimoto, Kazufumi, E-mail: m_fuji@kvj.biglobe.ne.jp; Nagai, Hideo, E-mail: nagai@sigmath.es.osaka-u.ac.jp; Runggaldier, Wolfgang J., E-mail: runggal@math.unipd.it

2013-02-15

We consider the problem of maximization of expected terminal power utility (risk sensitive criterion). The underlying market model is a regime-switching diffusion model where the regime is determined by an unobservable factor process forming a finite state Markov process. The main novelty is due to the fact that prices are observed and the portfolio is rebalanced only at random times corresponding to a Cox process where the intensity is driven by the unobserved Markovian factor process as well. This leads to a more realistic modeling for many practical situations, like in markets with liquidity restrictions; on the other hand itmore » considerably complicates the problem to the point that traditional methodologies cannot be directly applied. The approach presented here is specific to the power-utility. For log-utilities a different approach is presented in Fujimoto et al. (Preprint, 2012).« less

Royal Darwinian Demons: Enforced Changes in Reproductive Efforts Do Not Affect the Life Expectancy of Ant Queens.

PubMed

Schrempf, Alexandra; Giehr, Julia; Röhrl, Ramona; Steigleder, Sarah; Heinze, Jürgen

2017-04-01

One of the central tenets of life-history theory is that organisms cannot simultaneously maximize all fitness components. This results in the fundamental trade-off between reproduction and life span known from numerous animals, including humans. Social insects are a well-known exception to this rule: reproductive queens outlive nonreproductive workers. Here, we take a step forward and show that under identical social and environmental conditions the fecundity-longevity trade-off is absent also within the queen caste. A change in reproduction did not alter life expectancy, and even a strong enforced increase in reproductive efforts did not reduce residual life span. Generally, egg-laying rate and life span were positively correlated. Queens of perennial social insects thus seem to maximize at the same time two fitness parameters that are normally negatively correlated. Even though they are not immortal, they best approach a hypothetical "Darwinian demon" in the animal kingdom.

WFIRST: Exoplanet Target Selection and Scheduling with Greedy Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keithly, Dean; Garrett, Daniel; Delacroix, Christian; Savransky, Dmitry

2018-01-01

We present target selection and scheduling algorithms for missions with direct imaging of exoplanets, and the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) in particular, which will be equipped with a coronagraphic instrument (CGI). Optimal scheduling of CGI targets can maximize the expected value of directly imaged exoplanets (completeness). Using target completeness as a reward metric and integration time plus overhead time as a cost metric, we can maximize the sum completeness for a mission with a fixed duration. We optimize over these metrics to create a list of target stars using a greedy optimization algorithm based off altruistic yield optimization (AYO) under ideal conditions. We simulate full missions using EXOSIMS by observing targets in this list for their predetermined integration times. In this poster, we report the theoretical maximum sum completeness, mean number of detected exoplanets from Monte Carlo simulations, and the ideal expected value of the simulated missions.

Perceptions and Expectations of Online Graduate Students Regarding Synchronous Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bailie, Jeffrey L.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to gain an increased understanding of the perceptions and expectations of a group of experienced online student participants regarding synchronous events in the higher learning setting. Areas of inquiry posed to online student panelists included whether they expected live events to be included in their classes, and…

Homicides In Mexico Reversed Life Expectancy Gains For Men And Slowed Them For Women, 2000-10.

PubMed

Aburto, José Manuel; Beltrán-Sánchez, Hiram; García-Guerrero, Victor Manuel; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

2016-01-01

Life expectancy in Mexico increased for more than six decades but then stagnated in the period 2000-10. This decade was characterized by the enactment of a major health care reform-the implementation of the Seguro Popular de Salud (Popular Health Insurance), which was intended to provide coverage to the entire Mexican population-and by an unexpected increase in homicide mortality. We assessed the impact on life expectancy of conditions amenable to medical service-those sensitive to public health policies and changes in behaviors, homicide, and diabetes-by analyzing mortality trends at the state level. We found that life expectancy among males deteriorated from 2005 to 2010, compared to increases from 2000 to 2005. Females in most states experienced small gains in life expectancy between 2000 and 2010. The unprecedented rise in homicides after 2005 led to a reversal in life expectancy increases among males and a slowdown among females in most states in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Using Citizen Science Data to Model the Distributions of Common Songbirds of Turkey Under Different Global Climatic Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey’s songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey’s songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges. PMID:23844151

Using citizen science data to model the distributions of common songbirds of Turkey under different global climatic change scenarios.

PubMed

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey's songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey's songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges.

Are Birds Smarter Than Mathematicians? Pigeons (Columba livia) Perform Optimally on a Version of the Monty Hall Dilemma

PubMed Central

Herbranson, Walter T.; Schroeder, Julia

2011-01-01

The “Monty Hall Dilemma” (MHD) is a well known probability puzzle in which a player tries to guess which of three doors conceals a desirable prize. After an initial choice is made, one of the remaining doors is opened, revealing no prize. The player is then given the option of staying with their initial guess or switching to the other unopened door. Most people opt to stay with their initial guess, despite the fact that switching doubles the probability of winning. A series of experiments investigated whether pigeons (Columba livia), like most humans, would fail to maximize their expected winnings in a version of the MHD. Birds completed multiple trials of a standard MHD, with the three response keys in an operant chamber serving as the three doors and access to mixed grain as the prize. Across experiments, the probability of gaining reinforcement for switching and staying was manipulated, and birds adjusted their probability of switching and staying to approximate the optimal strategy. Replication of the procedure with human participants showed that humans failed to adopt optimal strategies, even with extensive training. PMID:20175592

Scientific basis and practical aspects of creatine supplementation for athletes.

PubMed

Volek, Jeff S; Rawson, Eric S

2004-01-01

A large number of studies have been published on creatine supplementation over the last decade. Many studies show that creatine supplementation in conjunction with resistance training augments gains in muscle strength and size. The underlying physiological mechanism(s) to explain this ergogenic effect remain unclear. Increases in muscle fiber hypertrophy and myosin heavy chain expression have been observed with creatine supplementation. Creatine supplementation increases acute weightlifting performance and training volume, which may allow for greater overload and adaptations to training. Creatine supplementation may also induce a cellular swelling in muscle cells, which in turn may affect carbohydrate and protein metabolism. Several studies point to the conclusion that elevated intramuscular creatine can enhance glycogen levels but an effect on protein synthesis/degradation has not been consistently detected. As expected there is a distribution of responses to creatine supplementation that can be largely explained by the degree of creatine uptake into muscle. Thus, there is wide interest in methods to maximize muscle creatine levels. A carbohydrate or carbohydrate/protein-induced insulin response appears to benefit creatine uptake. In summary, the predominance of research indicates that creatine supplementation represents a safe, effective, and legal method to enhance muscle size and strength responses to resistance training.

Identification of the focal plane wavefront control system using E-M algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, He; Kasdin, N. Jeremy; Vanderbei, Robert

2017-09-01

In a typical focal plane wavefront control (FPWC) system, such as the adaptive optics system of NASA's WFIRST mission, the efficient controllers and estimators in use are usually model-based. As a result, the modeling accuracy of the system influences the ultimate performance of the control and estimation. Currently, a linear state space model is used and calculated based on lab measurements using Fourier optics. Although the physical model is clearly defined, it is usually biased due to incorrect distance measurements, imperfect diagnoses of the optical aberrations, and our lack of knowledge of the deformable mirrors (actuator gains and influence functions). In this paper, we present a new approach for measuring/estimating the linear state space model of a FPWC system using the expectation-maximization (E-M) algorithm. Simulation and lab results in the Princeton's High Contrast Imaging Lab (HCIL) show that the E-M algorithm can well handle both the amplitude and phase errors and accurately recover the system. Using the recovered state space model, the controller creates dark holes with faster speed. The final accuracy of the model depends on the amount of data used for learning.

Potential Impact of Risk and Loss Aversion on the Process of Accepting Kidneys for Transplantation.

PubMed

Heilman, Raymond L; Green, Ellen P; Reddy, Kunam S; Moss, Adyr; Kaplan, Bruce

2017-07-01

Behavioral economic theory suggests that people make decisions based on maximizing perceived value; however, this may be influenced more by the risk of loss rather than of potential gain. Additionally, individuals may seek certainty over uncertainty. These are termed loss aversion and risk aversion, respectively. Loss aversion is particularly sensitive to how the decision is "framed." Thus, labeling a kidney as high Kidney Donor Profile Index results in higher discard rates because this creates a nonlinearity in perceived risk. There is also evidence that the perceived loss due to regulatory sanction results in increased organ discard rates. This may be due to the overuse of terminology that stresses regulatory sanctions and thus perpetuates fear of loss through a form of nudging. Our goal is to point out how these concepts of behavioral economics may negatively influence the decision process to accept these suboptimal organs. We hope to make the community more aware of these powerful psychological influences and thus potentially increase the utilization of these suboptimal organs. Further, we would urge regulatory bodies to avoid utilizing strategies that frame outcomes in terms of loss due to flagging and build models that are less prone to uncertain expected versus observed outcomes.

Some statistical properties of an index of multiple traits.

PubMed

Nordskog, A W

1978-03-01

Hazel (1943) defined a selection index that maximizes the correlation, RIH, between the index, I=ΣbiXi and its aggregate genetic value, H=Σaigi, where the bi's are the derived coefficients of the observed traits, Xi, the ai's are their relative economic values and the gi's are their respective breeding values. This is called an optimum index. The expected value of the index is not H but rather K=Σbigi. The ratio of RHI/RKI is always less than or equal to 1.0. With selection on I, the ratio of the change in K to the change in H is the true heritability of the indez, that is, h I (2) =Δ(K)/ΔH. This is not the same as R IH (2) , which serves only as the predictor of the change in H with selection on I. If the index, I, itself is considered as a unit trait, studies can then be made of correlated response in I when selection is based only on a single trait in the index. I is then called a performance index. This approach provides for additional insight into the question of the failure of selection to make gains in total performance over many generations.

Are birds smarter than mathematicians? Pigeons (Columba livia) perform optimally on a version of the Monty Hall Dilemma.

PubMed

Herbranson, Walter T; Schroeder, Julia

2010-02-01

The "Monty Hall Dilemma" (MHD) is a well known probability puzzle in which a player tries to guess which of three doors conceals a desirable prize. After an initial choice is made, one of the remaining doors is opened, revealing no prize. The player is then given the option of staying with their initial guess or switching to the other unopened door. Most people opt to stay with their initial guess, despite the fact that switching doubles the probability of winning. A series of experiments investigated whether pigeons (Columba livia), like most humans, would fail to maximize their expected winnings in a version of the MHD. Birds completed multiple trials of a standard MHD, with the three response keys in an operant chamber serving as the three doors and access to mixed grain as the prize. Across experiments, the probability of gaining reinforcement for switching and staying was manipulated, and birds adjusted their probability of switching and staying to approximate the optimal strategy. Replication of the procedure with human participants showed that humans failed to adopt optimal strategies, even with extensive training.

Strength Gains by Motor Imagery with Different Ratios of Physical to Mental Practice

PubMed Central

Reiser, Mathias; Büsch, Dirk; Munzert, Jörn

2011-01-01

The purpose of this training study was to determine the magnitude of strength gains following a high-intensity resistance training (i.e., improvement of neuromuscular coordination) that can be achieved by imagery of the respective muscle contraction imagined maximal isometric contraction (IMC training). Prior to the experimental intervention, subjects completed a 4-week standardized strength training program. 3 groups with different combinations of real maximum voluntary contraction (MVC) and mental (IMC) strength training (M75, M50, M25; numbers indicate percentages of mental trials) were compared to a MVC-only training group (M0) and a control condition without strength training (CO). Training sessions (altogether 12) consisted of four sets of two maximal 5-s isometric contractions with 10 s rest between sets of either MVC or IMC training. Task-specific effects of IMC training were tested in four strength exercises commonly used in practical settings (bench pressing, leg pressing, triceps extension, and calf raising). Maximum isometric voluntary contraction force (MVC) was measured before and after the experimental training intervention and again 1 week after cessation of the program. IMC groups (M25, M50, M75) showed slightly smaller increases in MVC (3.0% to 4.2%) than M0 (5.1%), but significantly stronger improvements than CO (−0.2%). Compared to further strength gains in M0 after 1 week (9.4% altogether), IMC groups showed no “delayed” improvement, but the attained training effects remained stable. It is concluded that high-intensity strength training sessions can be partly replaced by IMC training sessions without any considerable reduction of strength gains. PMID:21897826

Assessing long-term QALYs gain from averting and reversing overweight and obesity in childhood.

PubMed

Techakehakij, Win

2016-10-01

Interventions to tackle childhood obesity have been devised in response to the rising prevalence of childhood obesity. However, efficiency of these interventions remains a concern. Cost-utility analysis, representing health benefits in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), is a type of economic evaluation that has widely been recommended in assessing efficiency of health interventions. However, certain limitations in using QALYs remain specifically difficult in QALYs estimation. This study estimates the long-term QALYs gain from reversing childhood obesity in Thailand. An economic model was developed to estimate long-term QALYs of the youth aged 3-18 for the BMI status in childhood, which were categorized into three groups: normal weight, overweight, and obese. Long-term QALYs were estimated between ages 35 and 100, according to children's age, sex, and BMI status. Differences in QALYs between BMI status groups were calculated to represent the QALYs gain for youth from reversing obesity and overweight. The future outcomes were discounted at 3 % per annum in the base-case analysis; the discount rates of 0, 1.5, 3.5, and 5 % were also applied in the sensitivity analyses. QALYs gained from reversing childhood obesity increase with age, starting from 0.040 and 0.083 QALYs at age 3 to 0.590 and 0.553 QALYs at age 18 in boys and girls, respectively. Reversing overweight and obesity in girls produces more QALYs than in boys between ages 3 and 17. Efficiency is an important issue in allocating public healthcare resources to maximize social benefits. The results of this study facilitate long-term QALYs estimation with respect to BMI status in childhood, which could encourage more routine economic evaluation of child obesity interventions and maximize their health benefits.

Genetic polymorphisms to predict gains in maximal O2 uptake and knee peak torque after a high intensity training program in humans.

PubMed

Yoo, Jinho; Kim, Bo-Hyung; Kim, Soo-Hwan; Kim, Yangseok; Yim, Sung-Vin

2016-05-01

The study aimed to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that significantly influenced the level of improvement of two kinds of training responses, including maximal O2 uptake (V'O2max) and knee peak torque of healthy adults participating in the high intensity training (HIT) program. The study also aimed to use these SNPs to develop prediction models for individual training responses. 79 Healthy volunteers participated in the HIT program. A genome-wide association study, based on 2,391,739 SNPs, was performed to identify SNPs that were significantly associated with gains in V'O2max and knee peak torque, following 9 weeks of the HIT program. To predict two training responses, two independent SNPs sets were determined using linear regression and iterative binary logistic regression analysis. False discovery rate analysis and permutation tests were performed to avoid false-positive findings. To predict gains in V'O2max, 7 SNPs were identified. These SNPs accounted for 26.0 % of the variance in the increment of V'O2max, and discriminated the subjects into three subgroups, non-responders, medium responders, and high responders, with prediction accuracy of 86.1 %. For the knee peak torque, 6 SNPs were identified, and accounted for 27.5 % of the variance in the increment of knee peak torque. The prediction accuracy discriminating the subjects into the three subgroups was estimated as 77.2 %. Novel SNPs found in this study could explain, and predict inter-individual variability in gains of V'O2max, and knee peak torque. Furthermore, with these genetic markers, a methodology suggested in this study provides a sound approach for the personalized training program.

Suicide Bombing as Strategy and Interaction: The Case of the Second Intifada

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brym, Robert J.; Araj, Bader

2006-01-01

Social scientists have explained the rise of suicide bombing since the early 1980s by focusing on the characteristics of suicide bombers, the cultural matrix in which they operate, and the strategic calculations they make to maximize their gains. The authors offer an alternative approach that emphasizes the interaction between Palestinian suicide…

Success Rates by Software Development Methodology in Information Technology Project Management: A Quantitative Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wright, Gerald P.

2013-01-01

Despite over half a century of Project Management research, project success rates are still too low. Organizations spend a tremendous amount of valuable resources on Information Technology projects and seek to maximize the utility gained from their efforts. The author investigated the impact of software development methodology choice on ten…

Enhancing the Learning and Retention of Biblical Languages for Adult Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morse, MaryKate

2004-01-01

Finding ways to reduce students' anxiety and maximize the value of learning Greek and Hebrew is a continual challenge for biblical language teachers. Some language teachers use technology tools such as web sites or CDs with audio lessons to improve the experience. Though these tools are helpful, this paper explores the value gained from…

Motivational State, Reward Value, and Pavlovian Cues Differentially Affect Skilled Forelimb Grasping in Rats

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mosberger, Alice C.; de Clauser, Larissa; Kasper, Hansjörg; Schwab, Martin E.

2016-01-01

Motor skills represent high-precision movements performed at optimal speed and accuracy. Such motor skills are learned with practice over time. Besides practice, effects of motivation have also been shown to influence speed and accuracy of movements, suggesting that fast movements are performed to maximize gained reward over time as noted in…

Breeding strategies for north central tree improvement programs

Treesearch

Ronald P. Overton; Hyun Kang

1985-01-01

The rationales and concepts of long-term tree breeding are discussed and compared with those for short-term breeding. A model breeding program is reviewed which maximizes short-term genetic gain for currently important traits and provides genetic resources that can be used effectively in future short-term breeding. The resources of the north-central region are examined...

Maximizing investments in work zone safety in Oregon : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-05-01

Due to the federal stimulus program and the 2009 Jobs and Transportation Act, the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) anticipates that a large increase in highway construction will occur. There is the expectation that, since transportation saf...

Leadership Strategies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lashway, Larry

1997-01-01

Principals today are expected to maximize their schools' performances with limited resources while also adopting educational innovations. This synopsis reviews five recent publications that offer some important insights about the nature of principals' leadership strategies: (1) "Leadership Styles and Strategies" (Larry Lashway); (2) "Facilitative…

Three-dimensional ordered-subset expectation maximization iterative protocol for evaluation of left ventricular volumes and function by quantitative gated SPECT: a dynamic phantom study.

PubMed

Ceriani, Luca; Ruberto, Teresa; Delaloye, Angelika Bischof; Prior, John O; Giovanella, Luca

2010-03-01

The purposes of this study were to characterize the performance of a 3-dimensional (3D) ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM) algorithm in the quantification of left ventricular (LV) function with (99m)Tc-labeled agent gated SPECT (G-SPECT), the QGS program, and a beating-heart phantom and to optimize the reconstruction parameters for clinical applications. A G-SPECT image of a dynamic heart phantom simulating the beating left ventricle was acquired. The exact volumes of the phantom were known and were as follows: end-diastolic volume (EDV) of 112 mL, end-systolic volume (ESV) of 37 mL, and stroke volume (SV) of 75 mL; these volumes produced an LV ejection fraction (LVEF) of 67%. Tomographic reconstructions were obtained after 10-20 iterations (I) with 4, 8, and 16 subsets (S) at full width at half maximum (FWHM) gaussian postprocessing filter cutoff values of 8-15 mm. The QGS program was used for quantitative measurements. Measured values ranged from 72 to 92 mL for EDV, from 18 to 32 mL for ESV, and from 54 to 63 mL for SV, and the calculated LVEF ranged from 65% to 76%. Overall, the combination of 10 I, 8 S, and a cutoff filter value of 10 mm produced the most accurate results. The plot of the measures with respect to the expectation maximization-equivalent iterations (I x S product) revealed a bell-shaped curve for the LV volumes and a reverse distribution for the LVEF, with the best results in the intermediate range. In particular, FWHM cutoff values exceeding 10 mm affected the estimation of the LV volumes. The QGS program is able to correctly calculate the LVEF when used in association with an optimized 3D OSEM algorithm (8 S, 10 I, and FWHM of 10 mm) but underestimates the LV volumes. However, various combinations of technical parameters, including a limited range of I and S (80-160 expectation maximization-equivalent iterations) and low cutoff values (< or =10 mm) for the gaussian postprocessing filter, produced results with similar accuracies and without clinically relevant differences in the LV volumes and the estimated LVEF.

Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis C in the Aged - Does It Impact Life Expectancy? A Decision Analysis.

PubMed

Maor, Yaakov; Malnick, Stephen D H; Melzer, Ehud; Leshno, Moshe

2016-01-01

Recent studies have demonstrated that the efficacy of interferon-free direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) in patients over 70 is similar to that of younger age groups. Evidence continues to mount that life expectancy (LE) increases with successful treatment of hepatitis C (HCV) patients with advanced fibrosis. The evidence in older people is more limited. Our aim was to estimate the life year (LY) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained by treatment of naïve patients with HCV as a function of patient's age and fibrosis stage. We constructed a Markov model of HCV progression toward advanced liver disease. The primary outcome was LY and QALY saved. The model and the sustained virological response of HCV infected subjects treated with a fixed-dose combination of the NS5B polymerase inhibitor Sofosbuvir and the NS5A replication complex inhibitor Ledipasvir were based on the published literature and expert opinion. Generally, both the number of LY gained and QALY gained gradually decreased with advancing age but the rate of decline was slower with more advanced fibrosis stage. For patients with fibrosis stage F1, F2 and F3, LY gained dropped below six months if treated by the age of 55, 65 or 70 years, respectively, while for a patient with fibrosis stage F4, the gain was one LY if treated by the age of 75. The QALY gained for treated over untreated elderly were reasonably high even for those treated at early fibrosis stage. There is a significant life expectancy benefit to HCV treatment in patients up to age 75 with advanced-stage fibrosis.

Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis C in the Aged – Does It Impact Life Expectancy? A Decision Analysis

PubMed Central

Maor, Yaakov; Malnick, Stephen D. H.; Melzer, Ehud; Leshno, Moshe

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Recent studies have demonstrated that the efficacy of interferon-free direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) in patients over 70 is similar to that of younger age groups. Evidence continues to mount that life expectancy (LE) increases with successful treatment of hepatitis C (HCV) patients with advanced fibrosis. The evidence in older people is more limited. Our aim was to estimate the life year (LY) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained by treatment of naïve patients with HCV as a function of patient's age and fibrosis stage. Methods We constructed a Markov model of HCV progression toward advanced liver disease. The primary outcome was LY and QALY saved. The model and the sustained virological response of HCV infected subjects treated with a fixed-dose combination of the NS5B polymerase inhibitor Sofosbuvir and the NS5A replication complex inhibitor Ledipasvir were based on the published literature and expert opinion. Results Generally, both the number of LY gained and QALY gained gradually decreased with advancing age but the rate of decline was slower with more advanced fibrosis stage. For patients with fibrosis stage F1, F2 and F3, LY gained dropped below six months if treated by the age of 55, 65 or 70 years, respectively, while for a patient with fibrosis stage F4, the gain was one LY if treated by the age of 75. The QALY gained for treated over untreated elderly were reasonably high even for those treated at early fibrosis stage. Conclusions There is a significant life expectancy benefit to HCV treatment in patients up to age 75 with advanced-stage fibrosis. PMID:27410963

On the Achievable Throughput Over TVWS Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Caleffi, Marcello; Cacciapuoti, Angela Sara

2016-01-01

In this letter, we study the throughput achievable by an unlicensed sensor network operating over TV white space spectrum in presence of coexistence interference. Through the letter, we first analytically derive the achievable throughput as a function of the channel ordering. Then, we show that the problem of deriving the maximum expected throughput through exhaustive search is computationally unfeasible. Finally, we derive a computational-efficient algorithm characterized by polynomial-time complexity to compute the channel set maximizing the expected throughput and, stemming from this, we derive a closed-form expression of the maximum expected throughput. Numerical simulations validate the theoretical analysis. PMID:27043565

Health Gains and Financial Protection Provided by the Ethiopian Mental Health Strategy: an Extended Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Johansson, Kjell Arne; Strand, Kirsten Bjerkreim; Fekadu, Abebaw; Chisholm, Dan

2017-04-01

Mental and neurological (MN) health care has long been neglected in low-income settings. This paper estimates health and non-health impacts of fully publicly financed care for selected key interventions in the National Mental Health Strategy in Ethiopia for depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia and epilepsy. A methodology of extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) is applied to MN health care in Ethiopia. The impact of providing a package of selected MN interventions free of charge in Ethiopia is estimated for: epilepsy (75% coverage, phenobarbital), depression (30% coverage, fluoxetine, cognitive therapy and proactive case management), bipolar affective disorder (50% coverage, valproate and psychosocial therapy) and schizophrenia (75% coverage, haloperidol plus psychosocial treatment). Multiple outcomes are estimated and disaggregated across wealth quintiles: (1) healthy-life-years (HALYs) gained; (2) household out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures averted; (3) expected financial risk protection (FRP); and (4) productivity impact. The MN package is expected to cost US$177 million and gain 155,000 HALYs (epilepsy US$37m and 64,500 HALYs; depression US$65m and 61,300 HALYs; bipolar disorder US$44m and 20,300 HALYs; and schizophrenia US$31m and 8,900 HALYs) annually. The health benefits would be concentrated among the poorest groups for all interventions. Universal public finance averts little household OOP expenditures and provides minimal FRP because of the low current utilization of these MN services in Ethiopia. In addition, economic benefits of US$ 51 million annually are expected from depression treatment in Ethiopia as a result of productivity gains, equivalent to 78% of the investment cost. The total MN package in Ethiopia is estimated to cost equivalent to US$1.8 per capita and yields large progressive health benefits. The expected productivity gain is substantially higher than the expected FRP. The ECEA approach seems to fit well with the current policy challenges and captures important equity concerns of scaling up MN programmes. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

The timber-supply potential of intensive management in upland oak forests of Ohio

Treesearch

David A. Gansner; Owen W. Herrick; Owen W. Herrick

1973-01-01

Two alternative programs of intensive timber management were defined for Ohio's oak-hickory forests. Their potentials were evaluated by comparing the expected yields and yield values of each program with those expected from a continuation of current management practices. Neither program would produce large increases in timber yield. But the expected gains in yield...

Promoting Parent Academic Expectations Predicts Improved School Outcomes for Low-income Children Entering Kindergarten

PubMed Central

Loughlin-Presnal, John E.; Bierman, Karen L.

2017-01-01

This study explored patterns of change in the REDI (Research-based Developmentally Informed) Parent program (REDI-P), designed to help parents support child learning at the transition into kindergarten. Participants were 200 prekindergarten children attending Head Start (55% European-American, 26% African American, 19% Latino, 56% male, Mage = 4.45 years, SD = .29) and their primary caregivers, who were randomized to a 16-session home-visiting intervention (REDI-P) or a control group. Extending beyond a prior study documenting intervention effects on parenting behaviors and child kindergarten outcomes, this study assessed the impact of REDI-P on parent academic expectations, and then explored the degree to which intervention gains in three areas of parenting (parent-child interactive reading, parent-child conversations, parent academic expectations) predicted child outcomes in kindergarten (controlling for baseline values and a set of child and family characteristics). Results showed that REDI-P promoted significant gains in parent academic expectations, which in turn mediated intervention gains in child emergent literacy skills and self-directed learning. Results suggest a need to attend to the beliefs parents hold about their child’s academic potential, as well as their behavioral support for child learning, when designing interventions to enhance the school success of children in low-income families. PMID:28646976

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abdelaziz, Omar; Qu, Ming; Sun, Xiao-Guang

Separate sensible and latent cooling systems offer superior energy efficiency performance compared to conventional vapor compression air conditioning systems. In this paper we describe an innovative non-vapor compression system that uses electrochemical compressor (ECC) to pump hydrogen between 2-metal hydride reservoirs to provide the sensible cooling effect. The heat rejected during this process is used to regenerate the ionic liquid (IL) used for desiccant dehumidification. The overall system design is illustrated. The Xergy version 4C electrochemical compressor, while not designed as a high pressure system, develops in excess of 2 MPa (300 psia) and pressure ratios > 30. The projectedmore » base efficiency improvement of the electrochemical compressor is expected to be ~ 20% with higher efficiency when in low capacity mode due to being throttleable to lower capacity with improved efficiency. The IL was tailored to maximize the absorption/desorption rate of water vapor at moderate regeneration temperature. This IL, namely, [EMIm].OAc, is a hydrophilic IL with a working concentration range of 28.98% when operating between 25 75 C. The ECC metal hydride system is expected to show superior performance to typical vapor compression systems. As such, the combined efficiency gains from the use of ECC and separate and sensible cooling would offer significant potential savings to existing vapor compression cooling technology. A high efficiency Window Air Conditioner system is described based on this novel configuration. The system s schematic is provided. Models compared well with actual operating data obtained by running the prototype system. Finally, a model of an LiCl desiccant system in conjunction with the ECC-based metal hydride heat exchangers is provided.« less

Building uncertainty into cost-effectiveness rankings: portfolio risk-return tradeoffs and implications for decision rules.

PubMed

O'Brien, B J; Sculpher, M J

2000-05-01

Current principles of cost-effectiveness analysis emphasize the rank ordering of programs by expected economic return (eg, quality-adjusted life-years gained per dollar expended). This criterion ignores the variance associated with the cost-effectiveness of a program, yet variance is a common measure of risk when financial investment options are appraised. Variation in health care program return is likely to be a criterion of program selection for health care managers with fixed budgets and outcome performance targets. Characterizing health care resource allocation as a risky investment problem, we show how concepts of portfolio analysis from financial economics can be adopted as a conceptual framework for presenting cost-effectiveness data from multiple programs as mean-variance data. Two specific propositions emerge: (1) the current convention of ranking programs by expected return is a special case of the portfolio selection problem in which the decision maker is assumed to be indifferent to risk, and (2) for risk-averse decision makers, the degree of joint risk or covariation in cost-effectiveness between programs will create incentives to diversify an investment portfolio. The conventional normative assumption of risk neutrality for social-level public investment decisions does not apply to a large number of health care resource allocation decisions in which health care managers seek to maximize returns subject to budget constraints and performance targets. Portfolio theory offers a useful framework for studying mean-variance tradeoffs in cost-effectiveness and offers some positive predictions (and explanations) of actual decision making in the health care sector.

Estimation of snow in extratropical cyclones from multiple frequency airborne radar observations. An Expectation-Maximization approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grecu, M.; Tian, L.; Heymsfield, G. M.

2017-12-01

A major challenge in deriving accurate estimates of physical properties of falling snow particles from single frequency space- or airborne radar observations is that snow particles exhibit a large variety of shapes and their electromagnetic scattering characteristics are highly dependent on these shapes. Triple frequency (Ku-Ka-W) radar observations are expected to facilitate the derivation of more accurate snow estimates because specific snow particle shapes tend to have specific signatures in the associated two-dimensional dual-reflectivity-ratio (DFR) space. However, the derivation of accurate snow estimates from triple frequency radar observations is by no means a trivial task. This is because the radar observations can be subject to non-negligible attenuation (especially at W-band when super-cooled water is present), which may significantly impact the interpretation of the information in the DFR space. Moreover, the electromagnetic scattering properties of snow particles are computationally expensive to derive, which makes the derivation of reliable parameterizations usable in estimation methodologies challenging. In this study, we formulate an two-step Expectation Maximization (EM) methodology to derive accurate snow estimates in Extratropical Cyclones (ECTs) from triple frequency airborne radar observations. The Expectation (E) step consists of a least-squares triple frequency estimation procedure applied with given assumptions regarding the relationships between the density of snow particles and their sizes, while the Maximization (M) step consists of the optimization of the assumptions used in step E. The electromagnetic scattering properties of snow particles are derived using the Rayleigh-Gans approximation. The methodology is applied to triple frequency radar observations collected during the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX). Results show that snowfall estimates above the freezing level in ETCs consistent with the triple frequency radar observations as well as with independent rainfall estimates below the freezing level may be derived using the EM methodology formulated in the study.

Multimodal Pilot Behavior in Multi-Axis Tracking Tasks with Time-Varying Motion Cueing Gains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaal, P. M. T; Pool, D. M.

2014-01-01

In a large number of motion-base simulators, adaptive motion filters are utilized to maximize the use of the available motion envelope of the motion system. However, not much is known about how the time-varying characteristics of such adaptive filters affect pilots when performing manual aircraft control. This paper presents the results of a study investigating the effects of time-varying motion filter gains on pilot control behavior and performance. An experiment was performed in a motion-base simulator where participants performed a simultaneous roll and pitch tracking task, while the roll and/or pitch motion filter gains changed over time. Results indicate that performance increases over time with increasing motion gains. This increase is a result of a time-varying adaptation of pilots' equalization dynamics, characterized by increased visual and motion response gains and decreased visual lead time constants. Opposite trends are found for decreasing motion filter gains. Even though the trends in both controlled axes are found to be largely the same, effects are less significant in roll. In addition, results indicate minor cross-coupling effects between pitch and roll, where a cueing variation in one axis affects the behavior adopted in the other axis.

Fisher's method of scoring in statistical image reconstruction: comparison of Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel iterative schemes.

PubMed

Hudson, H M; Ma, J; Green, P

1994-01-01

Many algorithms for medical image reconstruction adopt versions of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. In this approach, parameter estimates are obtained which maximize a complete data likelihood or penalized likelihood, in each iteration. Implicitly (and sometimes explicitly) penalized algorithms require smoothing of the current reconstruction in the image domain as part of their iteration scheme. In this paper, we discuss alternatives to EM which adapt Fisher's method of scoring (FS) and other methods for direct maximization of the incomplete data likelihood. Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel methods for non-linear optimization provide efficient algorithms applying FS in tomography. One approach uses smoothed projection data in its iterations. We investigate the convergence of Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel algorithms with clinical tomographic projection data.

Digital Filters for Digital Phase-locked Loops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, M.; Mileant, A.

1985-01-01

An s/z hybrid model for a general phase locked loop is proposed. The impact of the loop filter on the stability, gain margin, noise equivalent bandwidth, steady state error and time response is investigated. A specific digital filter is selected which maximizes the overall gain margin of the loop. This filter can have any desired number of integrators. Three integrators are sufficient in order to track a phase jerk with zero steady state error at loop update instants. This filter has one zero near z = 1.0 for each integrator. The total number of poles of the filter is equal to the number of integrators plus two.

Unlocking Flexibility: Integrated Optimization and Control of Multienergy Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dall'Anese, Emiliano; Mancarella, Pierluigi; Monti, Antonello

Electricity, natural gas, water, and dis trict heating/cooling systems are predominantly planned and operated independently. However, it is increasingly recognized that integrated optimization and control of such systems at multiple spatiotemporal scales can bring significant socioeconomic, operational efficiency, and environmental benefits. Accordingly, the concept of the multi-energy system is gaining considerable attention, with the overarching objectives of 1) uncovering fundamental gains (and potential drawbacks) that emerge from the integrated operation of multiple systems and 2) developing holistic yet computationally affordable optimization and control methods that maximize operational benefits, while 3) acknowledging intrinsic interdependencies and quality-of-service requirements for each provider.

Cortical Brain Activity Reflecting Attentional Biasing Toward Reward-Predicting Cues Covaries with Economic Decision-Making Performance

PubMed Central

San Martín, René; Appelbaum, Lawrence G.; Huettel, Scott A.; Woldorff, Marty G.

2016-01-01

Adaptive choice behavior depends critically on identifying and learning from outcome-predicting cues. We hypothesized that attention may be preferentially directed toward certain outcome-predicting cues. We studied this possibility by analyzing event-related potential (ERP) responses in humans during a probabilistic decision-making task. Participants viewed pairs of outcome-predicting visual cues and then chose to wager either a small (i.e., loss-minimizing) or large (i.e., gain-maximizing) amount of money. The cues were bilaterally presented, which allowed us to extract the relative neural responses to each cue by using a contralateral-versus-ipsilateral ERP contrast. We found an early lateralized ERP response, whose features matched the attention-shift-related N2pc component and whose amplitude scaled with the learned reward-predicting value of the cues as predicted by an attention-for-reward model. Consistently, we found a double dissociation involving the N2pc. Across participants, gain-maximization positively correlated with the N2pc amplitude to the most reliable gain-predicting cue, suggesting an attentional bias toward such cues. Conversely, loss-minimization was negatively correlated with the N2pc amplitude to the most reliable loss-predicting cue, suggesting an attentional avoidance toward such stimuli. These results indicate that learned stimulus–reward associations can influence rapid attention allocation, and that differences in this process are associated with individual differences in economic decision-making performance. PMID:25139941

Leaf conductance and carbon gain under salt-stressed conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpe, V.; Manzoni, S.; Marani, M.; Katul, G.

2011-12-01

Exposure of plants to salt stress is often accompanied by reductions in leaf photosynthesis and in stomatal and mesophyll conductances. To separate the effects of salt stress on these quantities, a model based on the hypothesis that carbon gain is maximized subject to a water loss cost is proposed. The optimization problem of adjusting stomatal aperture for maximizing carbon gain at a given water loss is solved for both a non-linear and a linear biochemical demand function. A key novel theoretical outcome of the optimality hypothesis is an explicit relationship between the stomatal and mesophyll conductances that can be evaluated against published measurements. The approaches here successfully describe gas-exchange measurements reported for olive trees (Olea europea L.) and spinach (Spinacia oleraceaL.) in fresh water and in salt-stressed conditions. Salt stress affected both stomatal and mesophyll conductances and photosynthetic efficiency of both species. The fresh water/salt water comparisons show that the photosynthetic capacity is directly reduced by 30%-40%, indicating that reductions in photosynthetic rates under increased salt stress are not due only to a limitation of CO2diffusion. An increase in salt stress causes an increase in the cost of water parameter (or marginal water use efficiency) exceeding 100%, analogous in magnitude to findings from extreme drought stress studies. The proposed leaf-level approach can be incorporated into physically based models of the soil-plant-atmosphere system to assess how saline conditions and elevated atmospheric CO2 jointly impact transpiration and photosynthesis.

Melioration as rational choice: sequential decision making in uncertain environments.

PubMed

Sims, Chris R; Neth, Hansjörg; Jacobs, Robert A; Gray, Wayne D

2013-01-01

Melioration-defined as choosing a lesser, local gain over a greater longer term gain-is a behavioral tendency that people and pigeons share. As such, the empirical occurrence of meliorating behavior has frequently been interpreted as evidence that the mechanisms of human choice violate the norms of economic rationality. In some environments, the relationship between actions and outcomes is known. In this case, the rationality of choice behavior can be evaluated in terms of how successfully it maximizes utility given knowledge of the environmental contingencies. In most complex environments, however, the relationship between actions and future outcomes is uncertain and must be learned from experience. When the difficulty of this learning challenge is taken into account, it is not evident that melioration represents suboptimal choice behavior. In the present article, we examine human performance in a sequential decision-making experiment that is known to induce meliorating behavior. In keeping with previous results using this paradigm, we find that the majority of participants in the experiment fail to adopt the optimal decision strategy and instead demonstrate a significant bias toward melioration. To explore the origins of this behavior, we develop a rational analysis (Anderson, 1990) of the learning problem facing individuals in uncertain decision environments. Our analysis demonstrates that an unbiased learner would adopt melioration as the optimal response strategy for maximizing long-term gain. We suggest that many documented cases of melioration can be reinterpreted not as irrational choice but rather as globally optimal choice under uncertainty.

Motivation, Classroom Environment, and Learning in Introductory Geology: A Hierarchical Linear Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilbert, L. A.; Hilpert, J. C.; Van Der Hoeven Kraft, K.; Budd, D.; Jones, M. H.; Matheney, R.; Mcconnell, D. A.; Perkins, D.; Stempien, J. A.; Wirth, K. R.

2013-12-01

Prior research has indicated that highly motivated students perform better and that learning increases in innovative, reformed classrooms, but untangling the student effects from the instructor effects is essential to understanding how to best support student learning. Using a hierarchical linear model, we examine these effects separately and jointly. We use data from nearly 2,000 undergraduate students surveyed by the NSF-funded GARNET (Geoscience Affective Research NETwork) project in 65 different introductory geology classes at research universities, public masters-granting universities, liberal arts colleges and community colleges across the US. Student level effects were measured as increases in expectancy and self-regulation using the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (MSLQ; Pintrich et al., 1991). Instructor level effects were measured using the Reformed Teaching Observation Protocol, (RTOP; Sawada et al., 2000), with higher RTOP scores indicating a more reformed, student-centered classroom environment. Learning was measured by learning gains on a Geology Concept Inventory (GCI; Libarkin and Anderson, 2005) and normalized final course grade. The hierarchical linear model yielded significant results at several levels. At the student level, increases in expectancy and self-regulation are significantly and positively related to higher grades regardless of instructor; the higher the increase, the higher the grade. At the instructor level, RTOP scores are positively related to normalized average GCI learning gains. The higher the RTOP score, the higher the average class GCI learning gains. Across both levels, average class GCI learning gains are significantly and positively related to student grades; the higher the GCI learning gain, the higher the grade. Further, the RTOP scores are significantly and negatively related to the relationship between expectancy and course grade. The lower the RTOP score, the higher the correlation between change in expectancy and grade. As such, students with low motivation show higher grades and greater learning gains in high RTOP (student-centered) classrooms than in low RTOP ones. These results support the recommendation of student-centered practices in the classroom and consideration of student motivation in our approach to the future of geoscience education.

Pharmacological and Expectancy Effects of a Low Amount of Alcohol Drinking on Outcome Valuation and Risk Perception in Males and Females

PubMed Central

Tsurugizawa, Tomokazu; Tokuda, Shinsuke; Harada, Tokiko; Takahashi, Taiki; Sadato, Norihiro

2016-01-01

The high-dose, alcohol-induced influences on risk perception and loss aversion depend on sex. On the other hand, low-dose alcohol has less effect on risky behavior. However, the effect of low-dose alcohol on subjective valuation of gain or loss and also the effect of placebo (expectancy of alcohol) on risk perception have not been fully investigated. We investigated the effects of low-dose alcohol (0.02 g/100 ml blood alcohol concentration) and placebo effects on subjective risk perception and subjective valuation of uncertain gain and loss in females and males. Participants in the control group and the placebo group were served alcohol-free, wine-flavored beverage and participants of alcohol group were served wine (14% alcohol). The placebo group was not informed that the drink was not alcohol but the control group was informed. Then paper–pencil tasks for subjective risk perception and valuation of gain or loss were performed 45 min after drinking the beverage. The participants were asked to draw the line on a 180 mm scale for each question. The placebo effects as well as the low-dose alcohol effects were observed in subjective valuations of gain or loss. Except for effect of beverages, a gender difference was also observed for subjective likelihood. The females estimated a low-probability loss as more likely and estimated a high-probability gain as less likely than did the males. From the Stevens’ law fitting analysis, the placebo, not alcohol, significantly induced the psychophysical effect of the subjective valuation of gain or loss. These results indicate that the psychological effects of expectancy of alcohol (placebo) could be a major factor in changing the subjective valuation of gain or loss over the pharmacological effects of a small amount of alcohol (like a glass of wine). Furthermore, these results also indicate that gender differences should be taken into account when investigating pharmacological or psychological effect on decision-making. PMID:27100898

Vestibulo-ocular reflexes in rabbits: reduction by intravenous injection of diazepam.

PubMed

Barmack, N H; Pettorossi, V E

1980-11-01

We have studied the influence of intravenously administered diazepam on the horizontal (HVOR) and vertical (VVOR) vestibulo-ocular reflexes of the rabbit. The HVOR and VVOR were evoked by sinusoidal oscillation of rabbits on a rate table (0.01 to 0.8 Hz, +/- 10 degrees), and eye movements were measured with an infrared light-projection technique. The gains of the HVOR and VVOR (evoked eye velocity/head velocity) were reduced by diazepam injections of 5 microgram/kg. The dose required to produce a 50% reduction in HVOR gain was 500 microgram/kg. The time required to reduce the HVOR gain to 50% of its maximal reduction at dose of 400 microgram/kg (0.4 Hz +/- 10 degrees) was 60 s. These data suggest that diazepam might be effective as an anti-motion-sickness agent.

Understanding public preferences for prioritizing health care interventions in England: does the type of health gain matter?

PubMed

Mason, Helen; Baker, Rachel; Donaldson, Cam

2011-04-01

Health care budgets are finite and decisions must be made about which interventions to provide and, by implication, which will not be provided. The aim of this study was to investigate what features of health care interventions, including the type of health gain, are important to members of the public in England in making priority-setting decisions and to understand why. Q methodology was used with 52 members of the public in north east England. Respondents rank ordered 36 health care interventions from those they would give highest priority to through to those they would give lowest priority to. A form of factor analysis was used to reveal a small number of shared viewpoints. Five factors emerged: 'life saving to maximize the size of the health gain', 'everyone deserves a chance at life', '(potential for) own benefit', 'maximum benefit for (perceived) lowest cost' and 'quality of life and social responsibility'. There were different views about which interventions should be given priority. Respondents considered not only the type of health gain received from an intervention as important, but also the size of the health gain, who received the health gain and an individual's personal responsibility. Aspects other than health gain need to be considered when soliciting the public's views of priorities for health care interventions.

The Fusion Gain Analysis of the Inductively Driven Liner Compression Based Fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimazu, Akihisa; Slough, John

2016-10-01

An analytical analysis of the fusion gain expected in the inductively driven liner compression (IDLC) based fusion is conducted to identify the fusion gain scaling at various operating conditions. The fusion based on the IDLC is a magneto-inertial fusion concept, where a Field-Reversed Configuration (FRC) plasmoid is compressed via the inductively-driven metal liner to drive the FRC to fusion conditions. In the past, an approximate scaling law for the expected fusion gain for the IDLC based fusion was obtained under the key assumptions of (1) D-T fuel at 5-40 keV, (2) adiabatic scaling laws for the FRC dynamics, (3) FRC energy dominated by the pressure balance with the edge magnetic field at the peak compression, and (4) the liner dwell time being liner final diameter divided by the peak liner velocity. In this study, various assumptions made in the previous derivation is relaxed to study the change in the fusion gain scaling from the previous result of G ml1 / 2 El11 / 8 , where ml is the liner mass and El is the peak liner kinetic energy. The implication from the modified fusion gain scaling on the performance of the IDLC fusion reactor system is also explored.

The Priority Heuristic: Making Choices Without Trade-Offs

PubMed Central

Brandstätter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

2010-01-01

Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, we generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic predicts (i) Allais' paradox, (ii) risk aversion for gains if probabilities are high, (iii) risk seeking for gains if probabilities are low (lottery tickets), (iv) risk aversion for losses if probabilities are low (buying insurance), (v) risk seeking for losses if probabilities are high, (vi) certainty effect, (vii) possibility effect, and (viii) intransitivities. We test how accurately the heuristic predicts people's choices, compared to previously proposed heuristics and three modifications of expected utility theory: security-potential/aspiration theory, transfer-of-attention-exchange model, and cumulative prospect theory. PMID:16637767

Expecting ankle tilts and wearing an ankle brace influence joint control in an imitated ankle sprain mechanism during walking.

PubMed

Gehring, Dominic; Wissler, Sabrina; Lohrer, Heinz; Nauck, Tanja; Gollhofer, Albert

2014-03-01

A thorough understanding of the functional aspects of ankle joint control is essential to developing effective injury prevention. It is of special interest to understand how neuromuscular control mechanisms and mechanical constraints stabilize the ankle joint. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to determine how expecting ankle tilts and the application of an ankle brace influence ankle joint control when imitating the ankle sprain mechanism during walking. Ankle kinematics and muscle activity were assessed in 17 healthy men. During gait rapid perturbations were applied using a trapdoor (tilting with 24° inversion and 15° plantarflexion). The subjects either knew that a perturbation would definitely occur (expected tilts) or there was only the possibility that a perturbation would occur (potential tilts). Both conditions were conducted with and without a semi-rigid ankle brace. Expecting perturbations led to an increased ankle eversion at foot contact, which was mediated by an altered muscle preactivation pattern. Moreover, the maximal inversion angle (-7%) and velocity (-4%), as well as the reactive muscle response were significantly reduced when the perturbation was expected. While wearing an ankle brace did not influence muscle preactivation nor the ankle kinematics before ground contact, it significantly reduced the maximal ankle inversion angle (-14%) and velocity (-11%) as well as reactive neuromuscular responses. The present findings reveal that expecting ankle inversion modifies neuromuscular joint control prior to landing. Although such motor control strategies are weaker in their magnitude compared with braces, they seem to assist ankle joint stabilization in a close-to-injury situation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diverging Life Expectancies and Voting Patterns in the 2016 US Presidential Election.

PubMed

Bor, Jacob

2017-10-01

To assess whether voting patterns in the 2016 US presidential election were correlated with long-run trends in county life expectancy. I examined county-level voting data from the 2008 and 2016 presidential elections and assessed Donald Trump's share of the 2016 vote, change in the Republican vote share between 2008 and 2016, and changes in absolute numbers of Democratic and Republican votes. County-level estimates of life expectancy at birth were obtained for 1980 and 2014 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Changes in county life expectancy from 1980 to 2014 were strongly negatively associated with Trump's vote share, with less support for Trump in counties experiencing greater survival gains. Counties in which life expectancy stagnated or declined saw a 10-percentage-point increase in the Republican vote share between 2008 and 2016. Residents of counties left out from broader life expectancy gains abandoned the Democratic Party in the 2016 presidential election. Since coming to power, the Trump administration has proposed cuts to health insurance for the poor, social programs, health research, and environmental and worker protections, which are key determinants of population health. Health gaps likely will continue to widen without significant public investment in population health.

The Politics of Aborted Reform: Education and the Legitimacy of the State in France and West Germany.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiler, Hans N.

As this paper demonstrates, studying abortive educational reforms reveals a great deal about the complex political dynamics involved in making (and unmaking) key policy decisions. Using case studies of France and West Germany, the paper argues that the state in advanced industrial countries tends to maximize the political gains derived from…

Defining how aging Pseudotsuga and Abies compensate for multiple stresses through multi-criteria assessment of a functional-structural model

Treesearch

Maureen C. Kennedy; E. David Ford; Thomas M. Hinckley

2009-01-01

Many hypotheses have been advanced about factors that control tree longevity. We use a simulation model with multi-criteria optimization and Pareto optimality to determine branch morphologies in the Pinaceae that minimize the effect of growth limitations due to water stress while simultaneously maximizing carbohydrate gain. Two distinct branch morphologies in the...

How to Be a Wise Consumer of Coaching: Strategies Teachers Can Use to Maximize Coaching's Benefits

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yopp, David; Burroughs, Elizabeth A.; Luebeck, Jennifer; Heidema, Clare; Mitchell, Arlene; Sutton, John

2011-01-01

Instructional coaching is gaining popularity as a school-based effort to increase teacher effectiveness and student achievement. A coach can be broadly defined as a person who works collaboratively with a teacher to improve that teacher's practice and content knowledge, with the ultimate goal of affecting student achievement. By its very nature,…

Simplified power control method for cellular mobile communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, Y. W.

1994-04-01

The centralized power control (CPC) method measures the gain of the communication links between every mobile and every base station in the cochannel cells and determines optimal transmitter power to maximize the minimum carrier-to-interference ratio. The authors propose a simplified power control method which has nearly the same performance as the CPC method but which involves much smaller measurement overhead.

Resolution of an Orbital Issue: A Designed Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddleston, Lisa L.

2011-01-01

Design of Experiments (DOE) is a systematic approach to investigation of a system or process. A series of structured tests are designed in which planned changes are made to the input variables of a process or system. The effects of these changes on a pre-defined output are then assessed. DOE is a formal method of maximizing information gained while minimizing resources required.

Low cost booster and high performance orbit injection propulsion extended abstract

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sackheim, R. L.

1994-01-01

Space transportation is currently a major element of cost for communications satellite systems. For every dollar spent in manufacturing the satellite, somewhere between 1 and 3 dollars must be spent to launch the satellite into its initial operational orbit. This also makes the weight of the satellite a very critical cost factor because it is important to maximize the useful payload that is placed into orbit to maximize the return on the original investment. It seems apparent then, that tremendous economic advantage for satellite communications systems can be gained from improvements in two key highly leveraged propulsion areas. The first and most important economic improvement can be achieved by significantly lowering the cost of today's launch vehicles. The second gain that would greatly benefit the communications satellite business position is to increase both the useful (payload) weight placed into the orbit and the revenue generating lifetime of the satellite on-orbit. The point of this paper is to first explain that these two goals can best be achieved by cost reduction and performance increasing advancements in rocket propulsion for both the launch vehicle and for the satellite on-board apogee insertion and on-orbit velocity control systems.

Planning Beyond the Next Trial in Adaptive Experiments: A Dynamic Programming Approach.

PubMed

Kim, Woojae; Pitt, Mark A; Lu, Zhong-Lin; Myung, Jay I

2017-11-01

Experimentation is at the heart of scientific inquiry. In the behavioral and neural sciences, where only a limited number of observations can often be made, it is ideal to design an experiment that leads to the rapid accumulation of information about the phenomenon under study. Adaptive experimentation has the potential to accelerate scientific progress by maximizing inferential gain in such research settings. To date, most adaptive experiments have relied on myopic, one-step-ahead strategies in which the stimulus on each trial is selected to maximize inference on the next trial only. A lingering question in the field has been how much additional benefit would be gained by optimizing beyond the next trial. A range of technical challenges has prevented this important question from being addressed adequately. This study applies dynamic programming (DP), a technique applicable for such full-horizon, "global" optimization, to model-based perceptual threshold estimation, a domain that has been a major beneficiary of adaptive methods. The results provide insight into conditions that will benefit from optimizing beyond the next trial. Implications for the use of adaptive methods in cognitive science are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Locating an imaging radar in Canada for identifying spaceborne objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schick, William G.

1992-12-01

This research presents a study of the maximal coverage p-median facility location problem as applied to the location of an imaging radar in Canada for imaging spaceborne objects. The classical mathematical formulation of the maximal coverage p-median problem is converted into network-flow with side constraint formulations that are developed using a scaled down version of the imaging radar location problem. Two types of network-flow with side constraint formulations are developed: a network using side constraints that simulates the gains in a generalized network; and a network resembling a multi-commodity flow problem that uses side constraints to force flow along identical arcs. These small formulations are expanded to encompass a case study using 12 candidate radar sites, and 48 satellites divided into three states. SAS/OR PROC NETFLOW was used to solve the network-flow with side constraint formulations. The case study show that potential for both formulations, although the simulated gains formulation encountered singular matrix computational difficulties as a result of the very organized nature of its side constraint matrix. The multi-commodity flow formulation, when combined with equi-distribution of flow constraints, provided solutions for various values of p, the number of facilities to be selected.

Familial aggregation of VO(2max) response to exercise training: results from the HERITAGE Family Study.

PubMed

Bouchard, C; An, P; Rice, T; Skinner, J S; Wilmore, J H; Gagnon, J; Pérusse, L; Leon, A S; Rao, D C

1999-09-01

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that individual differences in the response of maximal O(2) uptake (VO(2max)) to a standardized training program are characterized by familial aggregation. A total of 481 sedentary adult Caucasians from 98 two-generation families was exercise trained for 20 wk and was tested for VO(2max) on a cycle ergometer twice before and twice after the training program. The mean increase in VO(2max) reached approximately 400 ml/min, but there was considerable heterogeneity in responsiveness, with some individuals experiencing little or no gain, whereas others gained >1.0 l/min. An ANOVA revealed that there was 2.5 times more variance between families than within families in the VO(2max) response variance. With the use of a model-fitting procedure, the most parsimonious models yielded a maximal heritability estimate of 47% for the VO(2max) response, which was adjusted for age and sex with a maternal transmission of 28% in one of the models. We conclude that the trainability of VO(2max) is highly familial and includes a significant genetic component.

Investigation and optimization of performance of nano-scale Stirling refrigerator using working fluid as Maxwell-Boltzmann gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadi, Mohammad H.; Amin Nabakhteh, Mohammad; Ahmadi, Mohammad-Ali; Pourfayaz, Fathollah; Bidi, Mokhtar

2017-10-01

The motivation behind this work is to explore a nanoscale irreversible Stirling refrigerator with respect to size impacts and shows two novel thermo-ecological criteria. Two distinct strategies were suggested in the optimization process and the consequences of every strategy were examined independently. In the primary strategy, with the purpose of maximizing the energetic sustainability index and modified the ecological coefficient of performance (MECOP) and minimizing the dimensionless Ecological function, a multi-objective optimization algorithm (MOEA) was used. In the second strategy, with the purpose of maximizing the ECOP and MECOP and minimizing the dimensionless Ecological function, a MOEA was used. To conclude the final solution from each strategy, three proficient decision makers were utilized. Additionally, to quantify the deviation of the results gained from each decision makers, two different statistical error indexes were employed. Finally, based on the comparison between the results achieved from proposed scenarios reveals that by maximizing the MECOP the maximum values of ESI, ECOP, and a minimum of ecfare achieved.

Normal isometric strength of rotatorcuff muscles in adults.

PubMed

Chezar, A; Berkovitch, Y; Haddad, M; Keren, Y; Soudry, M; Rosenberg, N

2013-01-01

The most prevalent disorders of the shoulder are related to the muscles of rotator cuff. In order to develop a mechanical method for the evaluation of the rotator cuff muscles, we created a database of isometric force generation by the rotator cuff muscles in normal adult population. We hypothesised the existence of variations according to age, gender and dominancy of limb. A total of 400 healthy adult volunteers were tested, classified into groups of 50 men and women for each decade of life. Maximal isometric force was measured at standardised positions for supraspinatus, infraspinatus and subscapularis muscles in both shoulders in every person. Torque of the force was calculated and normalised to lean body mass. The profiles of mean torque-time curves for each age and gender group were compared. Our data showed that men gradually gained maximal strength in the fifth decade, and showed decreased strength in the sixth. In women the maximal strength was gained in the fourth decade with gradual decline to the sixth decade of life. The dominant arm was stronger in most of the tested groups. The torque profiles of the rotator cuff muscles in men at all ages were significantly higher than that in women. We found previously unrecognised variations of rotator cuff muscles' isometric strength according to age, gender and dominancy in a normal population. The presented data may serve as a basis for the future studies for identification of the abnormal patterns of muscle isometric strength in patients with pathology of the rotator cuff muscles. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2013;2:214-19.

Predicting gambling problems from gambling outcome expectancies in college student-athletes.

PubMed

St-Pierre, Renée A; Temcheff, Caroline E; Gupta, Rina; Derevensky, Jeffrey; Paskus, Thomas S

2014-03-01

While previous research has suggested the potential importance of gambling outcome expectancies in determining gambling behaviour among adolescents, the predictive ability of gambling outcome expectancies has not yet been clearly delineated for college-aged youth. The current study aims to explore the relationships between gender and outcome expectancies in the prediction of gambling severity among college student-athletes. Data from the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) study assessing gambling behaviours and problems among U.S. college student-athletes were utilized. Complete data was available for 7,517 student-athletes. As expected, male college student-athletes reported more gambling participation as well as greater gambling problems than their female counterparts. Findings showed positive relationships between the outcome expectancies of financial gain, and negative emotional impacts and gambling problems. That is, those who endorsed more items on the outcome expectancy scales for financial gain and negative emotional impacts also tended to endorse more gambling-related problems. Findings also showed a negative relationship between outcome expectancies of fun and enjoyment, and gambling problems over and above the variance accounted for by gender. Those with gambling problems were less likely to have the expectation that gambling would be fun than those without gambling problems. Despite NCAA efforts to curb gambling activity, the results suggest that college student-athletes are at risk for over-involvement in gambling. Therefore, it is important to explore gambling outcome expectancies within this group since the motivations and reasons for gambling might be able to inform treatment initiatives.

Simultaneously learning DNA motif along with its position and sequence rank preferences through expectation maximization algorithm.

PubMed

Zhang, ZhiZhuo; Chang, Cheng Wei; Hugo, Willy; Cheung, Edwin; Sung, Wing-Kin

2013-03-01

Although de novo motifs can be discovered through mining over-represented sequence patterns, this approach misses some real motifs and generates many false positives. To improve accuracy, one solution is to consider some additional binding features (i.e., position preference and sequence rank preference). This information is usually required from the user. This article presents a de novo motif discovery algorithm called SEME (sampling with expectation maximization for motif elicitation), which uses pure probabilistic mixture model to model the motif's binding features and uses expectation maximization (EM) algorithms to simultaneously learn the sequence motif, position, and sequence rank preferences without asking for any prior knowledge from the user. SEME is both efficient and accurate thanks to two important techniques: the variable motif length extension and importance sampling. Using 75 large-scale synthetic datasets, 32 metazoan compendium benchmark datasets, and 164 chromatin immunoprecipitation sequencing (ChIP-Seq) libraries, we demonstrated the superior performance of SEME over existing programs in finding transcription factor (TF) binding sites. SEME is further applied to a more difficult problem of finding the co-regulated TF (coTF) motifs in 15 ChIP-Seq libraries. It identified significantly more correct coTF motifs and, at the same time, predicted coTF motifs with better matching to the known motifs. Finally, we show that the learned position and sequence rank preferences of each coTF reveals potential interaction mechanisms between the primary TF and the coTF within these sites. Some of these findings were further validated by the ChIP-Seq experiments of the coTFs. The application is available online.

Quantifying species recovery and conservation success to develop an IUCN Green List of Species.

PubMed

Akçakaya, H Resit; Bennett, Elizabeth L; Brooks, Thomas M; Grace, Molly K; Heath, Anna; Hedges, Simon; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hoffmann, Michael; Keith, David A; Long, Barney; Mallon, David P; Meijaard, Erik; Milner-Gulland, E J; Rodrigues, Ana S L; Rodriguez, Jon Paul; Stephenson, P J; Stuart, Simon N; Young, Richard P

2018-03-26

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action. © 2018 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Effects of Whey Protein Alone or as Part of a Multi-ingredient Formulation on Strength, Fat-Free Mass, or Lean Body Mass in Resistance-Trained Individuals: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Naclerio, Fernando; Larumbe-Zabala, Eneko

2016-01-01

Even though the positive effects of whey protein-containing supplements for optimizing the anabolic responses and adaptations process in resistance-trained individuals have been supported by several investigations, their use continues to be controversial. Additionally, the administration of different multi-ingredient formulations where whey proteins are combined with carbohydrates, other protein sources, creatine, and amino acids or derivatives, has been extensively proposed as an effective strategy to maximize strength and muscle mass gains in athletes. We aimed to systematically summarize and quantify whether whey protein-containing supplements, administered alone or as a part of a multi-ingredient, could improve the effects of resistance training on fat-free mass or lean body mass, and strength in resistance-trained individuals when compared with other iso-energetic supplements containing carbohydrates or other sources of proteins. A structured literature search was conducted on PubMed, Science Direct, Web of Science, Cochrane Libraries, US National Institutes of Health clinicaltrials.gov, SPORTDiscus, and Google Scholar databases. Main inclusion criteria comprised randomized controlled trial study design, adults (aged 18 years and over), resistance-trained individuals, interventions (a resistance training program for a period of 6 weeks or longer, combined with whey protein supplementation administered alone or as a part of a multi-ingredient), and a calorie equivalent contrast supplement from carbohydrates or other non-whey protein sources. Continuous data on fat-free mass and lean body mass, and maximal strength were pooled using a random-effects model. Data from nine randomized controlled trials were included, involving 11 treatments and 192 participants. Overall, with respect to the ingestion of contrast supplements, whey protein supplementation, administered alone or as part of a multi-ingredient, in combination with resistance training, was associated with small extra gains in fat-free mass or lean body mass, resulting in an effect size of g = 0.301, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.032-0.571. Subgroup analyses showed less clear positive trends resulting in small to moderate effect size g = 0.217 (95% CI -0.113 to 0.547) and g = 0.468 (95% CI 0.003-0.934) in favor of whey and multi-ingredient, respectively. Additionally, a positive overall extra effect was also observed to maximize lower (g = 0.316, 95% CI 0.045-0.588) and upper body maximal strength (g = 0.458, 95% CI 0.161-0.755). Subgroup analyses showed smaller superiority to maximize strength gains with respect to the contrast groups for lower body (whey protein: g = 0.343, 95% CI -0.016 to 0.702, multi-ingredient: g = 0.281, 95% CI -0.135 to 0.697) while in the upper body, multi-ingredient (g = 0.612, 95% CI 0.157-1.068) seemed to produce more clear effects than whey protein alone (g = 0.343, 95% CI -0.048 to 0.735). Studies involving interventions of more than 6 weeks on resistance-training individuals are scarce and account for a small number of participants. Furthermore, no studies with an intervention longer than 12 weeks have been found. The variation regarding the supplementation protocol, namely the different doses criteria or timing of ingestion also add some concerns to the studies comparison. Whey protein alone or as a part of a multi-ingredient appears to maximize lean body mass or fat-free mass gain, as well as upper and lower body strength improvement with respect to the ingestion of an iso-energetic equivalent carbohydrate or non-whey protein supplement in resistance-training individuals. This enhancement effect seems to be more evident when whey proteins are consumed within a multi-ingredient containing creatine.

Associations of Linear Growth and Relative Weight Gain in Early Life with Human Capital at 30 Years of Age.

PubMed

Horta, Bernardo Lessa; Victora, Cesar G; de Mola, Christian Loret; Quevedo, Luciana; Pinheiro, Ricardo Tavares; Gigante, Denise P; Motta, Janaina Vieira Dos Santos; Barros, Fernando C

2017-03-01

To assess the associations of birthweight, nutritional status and growth in childhood with IQ, years of schooling, and monthly income at 30 years of age. In 1982, the 5 maternity hospitals in Pelotas, Brazil, were visited daily and 5914 live births were identified. At 30 years of age, 3701 subjects were interviewed. IQ, years of schooling, and income were measured. On average, their IQ was 98 points, they had 11.4 years of schooling, and the mean income was 1593 reais. After controlling for several confounders, birthweight and attained weight and length/height for age at 2 and 4 years of age were associated positively with IQ, years of years of schooling, and income, except for the association between length at 2 years of age and income. Conditional growth analyses were used to disentangle linear growth from relative weight gain. Conditional length at 2 years of age ≥1 SD score above the expected value, compared with ≥1 SD below the expected, was associated with an increase in IQ (4.28 points; 95% CI, 2.66-5.90), years of schooling (1.58 years; 95% CI, 1.08-2.08), and monthly income (303 Brazilian reais; 95% CI, 44-563). Relative weight gain, above what would be expected from linear growth, was not associated with the outcomes. In a middle-income setting, promotion of linear growth in the first 1000 days of life is likely to increase adult IQ, years of schooling, and income. Weight gain in excess of what is expected from linear growth does not seem to improve human capital. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Engaging Older Adult Volunteers in National Service

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McBride, Amanda Moore; Greenfield, Jennifer C.; Morrow-Howell, Nancy; Lee, Yung Soo; McCrary, Stacey

2012-01-01

Volunteer-based programs are increasingly designed as interventions to affect the volunteers and the beneficiaries of the volunteers' activities. To achieve the intended impacts for both, programs need to leverage the volunteers' engagement by meeting their expectations, retaining them, and maximizing their perceptions of benefits. Programmatic…

Promoting parent academic expectations predicts improved school outcomes for low-income children entering kindergarten.

PubMed

Loughlin-Presnal, John E; Bierman, Karen L

2017-06-01

This study explored patterns of change in the REDI (Research-based Developmentally Informed) Parent program (REDI-P), designed to help parents support child learning at the transition into kindergarten. Participants were 200 prekindergarten children attending Head Start (55% European-American, 26% African American, 19% Latino, 56% male, M age =4.45years, SD=0.29) and their primary caregivers, who were randomized to a 16-session home-visiting intervention (REDI-P) or a control group. Extending beyond a prior study documenting intervention effects on parenting behaviors and child kindergarten outcomes, this study assessed the impact of REDI-P on parent academic expectations, and then explored the degree to which intervention gains in three areas of parenting (parent-child interactive reading, parent-child conversations, parent academic expectations) predicted child outcomes in kindergarten (controlling for baseline values and a set of child and family characteristics). Results showed that REDI-P promoted significant gains in parent academic expectations, which in turn mediated intervention gains in child emergent literacy skills and self-directed learning. Results suggest a need to attend to the beliefs parents hold about their child's academic potential, as well as their behavioral support for child learning, when designing interventions to enhance the school success of children in low-income families. Copyright © 2017 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric dispersion prediction and source estimation of hazardous gas using artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization and expectation maximization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Sihang; Chen, Bin; Wang, Rongxiao; Zhu, Zhengqiu; Wang, Yuan; Qiu, Xiaogang

2018-04-01

Hazardous gas leak accident has posed a potential threat to human beings. Predicting atmospheric dispersion and estimating its source become increasingly important in emergency management. Current dispersion prediction and source estimation models cannot satisfy the requirement of emergency management because they are not equipped with high efficiency and accuracy at the same time. In this paper, we develop a fast and accurate dispersion prediction and source estimation method based on artificial neural network (ANN), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and expectation maximization (EM). The novel method uses a large amount of pre-determined scenarios to train the ANN for dispersion prediction, so that the ANN can predict concentration distribution accurately and efficiently. PSO and EM are applied for estimating the source parameters, which can effectively accelerate the process of convergence. The method is verified by the Indianapolis field study with a SF6 release source. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

Merton's problem for an investor with a benchmark in a Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard market.

PubMed

Lennartsson, Jan; Lindberg, Carl

2015-01-01

To try to outperform an externally given benchmark with known weights is the most common equity mandate in the financial industry. For quantitative investors, this task is predominantly approached by optimizing their portfolios consecutively over short time horizons with one-period models. We seek in this paper to provide a theoretical justification to this practice when the underlying market is of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard type. This is done by verifying that an investor who seeks to maximize her expected terminal exponential utility of wealth in excess of her benchmark will in fact use an optimal portfolio equivalent to the one-period Markowitz mean-variance problem in continuum under the corresponding Black-Scholes market. Further, we can represent the solution to the optimization problem as in Feynman-Kac form. Hence, the problem, and its solution, is analogous to Merton's classical portfolio problem, with the main difference that Merton maximizes expected utility of terminal wealth, not wealth in excess of a benchmark.

Bilevel formulation of a policy design problem considering multiple objectives and incomplete preferences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawthorne, Bryant; Panchal, Jitesh H.

2014-07-01

A bilevel optimization formulation of policy design problems considering multiple objectives and incomplete preferences of the stakeholders is presented. The formulation is presented for Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) policy design for decentralized energy infrastructure. The upper-level problem is the policy designer's problem and the lower-level problem is a Nash equilibrium problem resulting from market interactions. The policy designer has two objectives: maximizing the quantity of energy generated and minimizing policy cost. The stakeholders decide on quantities while maximizing net present value and minimizing capital investment. The Nash equilibrium problem in the presence of incomplete preferences is formulated as a stochastic linear complementarity problem and solved using expected value formulation, expected residual minimization formulation, and the Monte Carlo technique. The primary contributions in this article are the mathematical formulation of the FIT policy, the extension of computational policy design problems to multiple objectives, and the consideration of incomplete preferences of stakeholders for policy design problems.

Filtered maximum likelihood expectation maximization based global reconstruction for bioluminescence tomography.

PubMed

Yang, Defu; Wang, Lin; Chen, Dongmei; Yan, Chenggang; He, Xiaowei; Liang, Jimin; Chen, Xueli

2018-05-17

The reconstruction of bioluminescence tomography (BLT) is severely ill-posed due to the insufficient measurements and diffuses nature of the light propagation. Predefined permissible source region (PSR) combined with regularization terms is one common strategy to reduce such ill-posedness. However, the region of PSR is usually hard to determine and can be easily affected by subjective consciousness. Hence, we theoretically developed a filtered maximum likelihood expectation maximization (fMLEM) method for BLT. Our method can avoid predefining the PSR and provide a robust and accurate result for global reconstruction. In the method, the simplified spherical harmonics approximation (SP N ) was applied to characterize diffuse light propagation in medium, and the statistical estimation-based MLEM algorithm combined with a filter function was used to solve the inverse problem. We systematically demonstrated the performance of our method by the regular geometry- and digital mouse-based simulations and a liver cancer-based in vivo experiment. Graphical abstract The filtered MLEM-based global reconstruction method for BLT.

Visual attention distracter insertion for improved EEG rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) target stimuli detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosla, Deepak; Huber, David J.; Martin, Kevin

2017-05-01

This paper† describes a technique in which we improve upon the prior performance of the Rapid Serial Visual Presentation (RSVP) EEG paradigm for image classification though the insertion of visual attention distracters and overall sequence reordering based upon the expected ratio of rare to common "events" in the environment and operational context. Inserting distracter images maintains the ratio of common events to rare events at an ideal level, maximizing the rare event detection via P300 EEG response to the RSVP stimuli. The method has two steps: first, we compute the optimal number of distracters needed for an RSVP stimuli based on the desired sequence length and expected number of targets and insert the distracters into the RSVP sequence, and then we reorder the RSVP sequence to maximize P300 detection. We show that by reducing the ratio of target events to nontarget events using this method, we can allow RSVP sequences with more targets without sacrificing area under the ROC curve (azimuth).

Choosing Fitness-Enhancing Innovations Can Be Detrimental under Fluctuating Environments

PubMed Central

Xue, Julian Z.; Costopoulos, Andre; Guichard, Frederic

2011-01-01

The ability to predict the consequences of one's behavior in a particular environment is a mechanism for adaptation. In the absence of any cost to this activity, we might expect agents to choose behaviors that maximize their fitness, an example of directed innovation. This is in contrast to blind mutation, where the probability of becoming a new genotype is independent of the fitness of the new genotypes. Here, we show that under environments punctuated by rapid reversals, a system with both genetic and cultural inheritance should not always maximize fitness through directed innovation. This is because populations highly accurate at selecting the fittest innovations tend to over-fit the environment during its stable phase, to the point that a rapid environmental reversal can cause extinction. A less accurate population, on the other hand, can track long term trends in environmental change, keeping closer to the time-average of the environment. We use both analytical and agent-based models to explore when this mechanism is expected to occur. PMID:22125601

A Heavy Tailed Expectation Maximization Hidden Markov Random Field Model with Applications to Segmentation of MRI

PubMed Central

Castillo-Barnes, Diego; Peis, Ignacio; Martínez-Murcia, Francisco J.; Segovia, Fermín; Illán, Ignacio A.; Górriz, Juan M.; Ramírez, Javier; Salas-Gonzalez, Diego

2017-01-01

A wide range of segmentation approaches assumes that intensity histograms extracted from magnetic resonance images (MRI) have a distribution for each brain tissue that can be modeled by a Gaussian distribution or a mixture of them. Nevertheless, intensity histograms of White Matter and Gray Matter are not symmetric and they exhibit heavy tails. In this work, we present a hidden Markov random field model with expectation maximization (EM-HMRF) modeling the components using the α-stable distribution. The proposed model is a generalization of the widely used EM-HMRF algorithm with Gaussian distributions. We test the α-stable EM-HMRF model in synthetic data and brain MRI data. The proposed methodology presents two main advantages: Firstly, it is more robust to outliers. Secondly, we obtain similar results than using Gaussian when the Gaussian assumption holds. This approach is able to model the spatial dependence between neighboring voxels in tomographic brain MRI. PMID:29209194

Using return on investment to maximize conservation effectiveness in Argentine grasslands.

PubMed

Murdoch, William; Ranganathan, Jai; Polasky, Stephen; Regetz, James

2010-12-07

The rapid global loss of natural habitats and biodiversity, and limited resources, place a premium on maximizing the expected benefits of conservation actions. The scarcity of information on the fine-grained distribution of species of conservation concern, on risks of loss, and on costs of conservation actions, especially in developing countries, makes efficient conservation difficult. The distribution of ecosystem types (unique ecological communities) is typically better known than species and arguably better represents the entirety of biodiversity than do well-known taxa, so we use conserving the diversity of ecosystem types as our conservation goal. We define conservation benefit to include risk of conversion, spatial effects that reward clumping of habitat, and diminishing returns to investment in any one ecosystem type. Using Argentine grasslands as an example, we compare three strategies: protecting the cheapest land ("minimize cost"), maximizing conservation benefit regardless of cost ("maximize benefit"), and maximizing conservation benefit per dollar ("return on investment"). We first show that the widely endorsed goal of saving some percentage (typically 10%) of a country or habitat type, although it may inspire conservation, is a poor operational goal. It either leads to the accumulation of areas with low conservation benefit or requires infeasibly large sums of money, and it distracts from the real problem: maximizing conservation benefit given limited resources. Second, given realistic budgets, return on investment is superior to the other conservation strategies. Surprisingly, however, over a wide range of budgets, minimizing cost provides more conservation benefit than does the maximize-benefit strategy.

Long-term selection strategies for complex traits using high-density genetic markers.

PubMed

Kemper, K E; Bowman, P J; Pryce, J E; Hayes, B J; Goddard, M E

2012-08-01

Selection of animals for breeding ranked on estimated breeding value maximizes genetic gain in the next generation but does not necessarily maximize long-term response. An alternative method, as practiced by plant breeders, is to build a desired genotype by selection on specific loci. Maximal long-term response in animal breeding requires selection on estimated breeding values with constraints on coancestry. In this paper, we compared long-term genetic response using either a genotype building or a genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) strategy for the Australian Selection Index (ASI), a measure of profit. First, we used real marker effects from the Australian Dairy Herd Improvement Scheme to estimate breeding values for chromosome segments (approximately 25 cM long) for 2,650 Holstein bulls. Second, we selected 16 animals to be founders for a simulated breeding program where, between them, founders contain the best possible combination of 2 segments from 2 animals at each position in the genome. Third, we mated founder animals and their descendants over 30 generations with 2 breeding objectives: (1) to create a population with the "ideal genotype," where the best 2 segments from the founders segregate at each position, or (2) obtain the highest possible response in ASI with coancestry lower than that achieved under breeding objective 1. Results show that genotype building achieved the ideal genotype for breeding objective 1 and obtained a large gain in ASI over the current population (+A$864.99). However, selection on overall GEBV had greater short-term response and almost as much long-term gain (+A$820.42). When coancestry was lowered under breeding objective 2, selection on overall GEBV achieved a higher response in ASI than the genotype building strategy. Selection on overall GEBV seems more flexible in its selection decisions and was therefore better able to precisely control coancestry while maximizing ASI. We conclude that selection on overall GEBV while minimizing average coancestry is the more practical strategy for dairy cattle where selection is for highly polygenic traits, the reproductive rate is relatively low, and there is low tolerance of coancestry. The outcome may be different for traits controlled by few loci of relatively large effects or for different species. In contrast to other simulations, our results indicate that response to selection on overall GEBV may continue for several generations. This is because long-term genetic change in complex traits requires favorable changes to allele frequencies for many loci located throughout the genome. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating QALY gains in applied studies: a review of cost-utility analyses published in 2010.

PubMed

Wisløff, Torbjørn; Hagen, Gunhild; Hamidi, Vida; Movik, Espen; Klemp, Marianne; Olsen, Jan Abel

2014-04-01

Reimbursement agencies in several countries now require health outcomes to be measured in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), leading to an immense increase in publications reporting QALY gains. However, there is a growing concern that the various 'multi-attribute utility' (MAU) instruments designed to measure the Q in the QALY yield disparate values, implying that results from different instruments are incommensurable. By reviewing cost-utility analyses published in 2010, we aim to contribute to improved knowledge on how QALYs are currently calculated in applied analyses; how transparently QALY measurement is presented; and how large the expected incremental QALY gains are. We searched Embase, MEDLINE and NHS EED for all cost-utility analyses published in 2010. All analyses that had estimated QALYs gained from health interventions were included. Of the 370 studies included in this review, 48% were pharmacoeconomic evaluations. Active comparators were used in 71% of studies. The median incremental QALY gain was 0.06, which translates to 3 weeks in best imaginable health. The EQ-5D-3L is the dominant instrument used. However, reporting of how QALY gains are estimated is generally inadequate. In 55% of the studies there was no reference to which MAU instrument or direct valuation method QALY data came from. The methods used for estimating expected QALY gains are not transparently reported in published papers. Given the wide variation in utility scores that different methodologies may assign to an identical health state, it is important for journal editors to require a more transparent way of reporting the estimation of incremental QALY gains.

The Smoking Abstinence Questionnaire: Measurement of smokers’ abstinence-related expectancies

PubMed Central

Hendricks, Peter S.; Wood, Sabrina B.; Baker, Majel R.; Delucchi, Kevin L.; Hall, Sharon M.

2011-01-01

AIM To develop and validate a measure of smokers’ expectancies for the abstinence process upon quitting smoking: the Smoking Abstinence Questionnaire (SAQ). DESIGN Principal component analysis and other psychometric analyses of self-report data. SETTING San Francisco, California. PARTICIPANTS 507 adult smokers of at least 10 cigarettes per day diverse in gender, sexual orientation, and ethnoracial status. MEASUREMENTS The primary measure was a draft version of the SAQ. Additional measures assessed a variety of other smoking-related constructs. FINDINGS Principal component analyses revealed 10 factors of the SAQ: Withdrawal, Social Improvement/Nonsmoker Identity, Adverse Outcomes, Treatment Effectiveness, Common Reasons, Barriers to Treatment, Social Support, Optimistic Outcomes, Coffee Use, and Weight Gain. The SAQ factors demonstrated internal consistencies ranging from .62 to .85 and were associated with tobacco dependence, motivation to quit, abstinence self-efficacy, withdrawal symptoms, dietary restraint, shape and weight concern, and tobacco use expectancies. The SAQ predicted smoking-related constructs above and beyond tobacco use expectancies, suggesting that abstinence-related expectancies and tobacco use expectancies are distinct from one another. CONCLUSIONS A newly developed questionnaire, the SAQ, appears to reliably capture smokers’ expectancies for abstinence (Withdrawal, Social Improvement/Nonsmoker Identity, Adverse Outcomes, Common Reasons, Optimistic Outcomes, Coffee Use, and Weight Gain) and expectancies related to the success of a quit attempt (Treatment Effectiveness, Barriers to Treatment, and Social Support). It remains to be seen how far any of these expectancies predict attempts to quit, withdrawal, treatment utilization and response, and quitting success above and beyond existing measures. PMID:21205053

Weight-gain misperceptions and the third-person effect in Black and White college-bound females: potential implications for healthy weight management.

PubMed

Webb, Jennifer B; Butler-Ajibade, Phoebe; Robinson, Seronda A; Lee, Shanique J

2013-08-01

Elements of social norm theory and communication theory on the third-person effect may prove useful in efforts to prevent excessive weight gain among emerging adults entering college. The present study explored the associations of race/ethnicity and BMI status with these socio-cognitive factors that may affect first-year weight regulation in a sample of Black (N = 247) and White (N = 94) college-bound females. Participants completed an online survey assessing first-year weight-gain perceived norms along with weight-change expectations and concerns. Results provided evidence of the persistence of the myth of the "Freshman 15", belief in the typicality of gaining weight during the first year of college, and significant concern about first-year weight gain. Initial findings further revealed a robust third-person effect whereby despite nearly 90% of the sample endorsing that first-year weight gain was common, only 12% expected they would experience weight gain. Main effects of race/ethnicity, BMI status, and their interaction further uncovered distinct patterns of findings. Preliminary results highlight the need for college health officials at both predominantly White as well as minority-serving institutions to adequately address the significant concern over first-year weight gain in conjunction with the desire to lose weight expressed by an appreciable number of incoming college females. Findings also advocate the utility of evaluating social norm theory and the third-person perceptual bias in the context of first-year weight gain to potentially enhance the design and effectiveness of healthy weight management initiatives among ethnically-diverse young women entering college. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptation without parameter change: Dynamic gain control in motion detection

PubMed Central

Borst, Alexander; Flanagin, Virginia L.; Sompolinsky, Haim

2005-01-01

Many sensory systems adapt their input-output relationship to changes in the statistics of the ambient stimulus. Such adaptive behavior has been measured in a motion detection sensitive neuron of the fly visual system, H1. The rapid adaptation of the velocity response gain has been interpreted as evidence of optimal matching of the H1 response to the dynamic range of the stimulus, thereby maximizing its information transmission. Here, we show that correlation-type motion detectors, which are commonly thought to underlie fly motion vision, intrinsically possess adaptive properties. Increasing the amplitude of the velocity fluctuations leads to a decrease of the effective gain and the time constant of the velocity response without any change in the parameters of these detectors. The seemingly complex property of this adaptation turns out to be a straightforward consequence of the multidimensionality of the stimulus and the nonlinear nature of the system. PMID:15833815

Sharing Regional Cooperative Gains From Reusing Effluent for Irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinar, Ariel; Yaron, Dan; Kannai, Yakar

1986-03-01

This paper is concerned with the allocation of cost and benefits from regional cooperation, with respect to reuse of municipal effluent for irrigation at the Ramla region of Israel. An efficient regional solution provides the maximal regional income which has to be redistributed among the town and several farms. Different allocations based on marginal cost pricing and schemes from cooperative game theory like the core, Shapley value, generalized Shapley value, and nucleolus are applied. The town and farm A have the main additional gains according to all allocation schemes presented. Advantages and disadvantages of these allocation schemes are examined in order to suggest a fair and acceptable allocation of the regional cooperative gains. Although no method has been preferred, the marginal cost pricing was found to be unacceptable by the participants. The conclusion is that the theory of cooperative games may provide guidelines while comparing the different solutions.

A wideband CMOS single-ended low noise amplifier employing negative resistance technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Benqing; Chen, Hongpeng; Wang, Xuebing; Chen, Jun; Li, Yueyue; Jin, Haiyan; Yang, Yongjun

2018-02-01

A wideband common-gate CMOS low noise amplifier with negative resistance technique is proposed. A novel single-ended negative resistance structure is employed to improve gain and noise of the LNA. The inductor resonating is adopted at the input stage and load stage to meet wideband matching and compensate gain roll-off at higher frequencies. Implemented in a 0.18 μm CMOS technology, the proposed LNA demonstrates in simulations a maximal gain of 16.4 dB across the 3 dB bandwidth of 0.2-3 GHz. The in-band noise figure of 3.4-4.7 dB is obtained while the IIP3 of 5.3-6.8 dBm and IIP2 of 12.5-17.2 dBm are post-simulated in the designed frequency band. The LNA core consumes a power dissipation of 3.8 mW under a 1.5 V power supply.

Enhanced 2/3 four-ary modulation code using soft-decision Viterbi decoding for four-level holographic data storage systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Gyuyeol; Choi, Sooyong

2017-09-01

An enhanced 2/3 four-ary modulation code using soft-decision Viterbi decoding is proposed for four-level holographic data storage systems. While the previous four-ary modulation codes focus on preventing maximum two-dimensional intersymbol interference patterns, the proposed four-ary modulation code aims at maximizing the coding gains for better bit error rate performances. For achieving significant coding gains from the four-ary modulation codes, we design a new 2/3 four-ary modulation code in order to enlarge the free distance on the trellis through extensive simulation. The free distance of the proposed four-ary modulation code is extended from 1.21 to 2.04 compared with that of the conventional four-ary modulation code. The simulation result shows that the proposed four-ary modulation code has more than 1 dB gains compared with the conventional four-ary modulation code.

How Do Education Students Learn Physics?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mistades, Voltaire Mallari

2011-01-01

Research in physics education has identified students' attitudes and beliefs that contribute to higher gains in learning. The study investigated the extent of change in education majors' attitudes, beliefs and cognitive expectations after going through an introductory physics course. Using the MPEX (Maryland Physics Expectations) Survey and the…

Experimental Investigation of 60 GHz Transmission Characteristics Between Computers on a Conference Table for WPAN Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ponchak, George E.; Amadjikpe, Arnaud L.; Choudhury, Debabani; Papapolymerou, John

2011-01-01

In this paper, the first measurements of the received radiated power between antennas located on a conference table to simulate the environment of antennas embedded in laptop computers for 60 GHz Wireless Personal Area Network (WPAN) applications is presented. A high gain horn antenna and a medium gain microstrip patch antenna for two linear polarizations are compared. It is shown that for a typical conference table arrangement with five computers, books, pens, and coffee cups, the antennas should be placed a minimum of 5 cm above the table, but that a height of greater than 20 cm may be required to maximize the received power in all cases.

Quantum Sensors Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-01

transmitter state. For example, theory has shown that for a non-classical ten entangled photon N00N state used as a Type-1 sensor, typical losses...stemmed from Lloyd’s proof [14] that a large performance gain accrues from the use of entanglement in single- photon target detection within a lossy...output. These mode pairs are in independent identically distributed (iid), zero-mean, maximally- entangled Gaussian states with average photon number

No pain, no gain: pain behaviour in the armed forces.

PubMed

Harper, Phil

Pain is a unique phenomenon that is difficult to express and is influenced by many different factors, including cultural expectations. A dichotomy exists within the British Armed Forces between pain being seen as necessary--the "no pain, no gain" view--and the opposite image of stoical service personnel who suppress their emotions--the "roughie-toughie" image. This dichotomy was explored through an ethnographic study of pain behaviour experienced during a training course. Pain behaviour was found to be consistent with cultural expectations and this supported the "no pain, no gain" perspective. Physical and psychological pain were expressed differently, reinforcing the western, scientific mind-body dichotomy. In addition, personnel frequently tried to suppress their pain and this supported the "roughie-toughie" philosophy. Thus, pain expression varies according to the context in which it occurs. Nurses need to be aware of this to ensure they interpret and manage their patients' pain appropriately.

Colonization Habitat Controls Biomass, Composition, and Metabolic Activity of Attached Microbial Communities in the Columbia River Hyporheic Corridor.

PubMed

Stern, Noah; Ginder-Vogel, Matthew; Stegen, James C; Arntzen, Evan; Kennedy, David W; Larget, Bret R; Roden, Eric E

2017-08-15

Hydrologic exchange plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycling within the hyporheic zone (the interface between river water and groundwater) of riverine ecosystems. Such exchange may set limits on the rates of microbial metabolism and impose deterministic selection on microbial communities that adapt to dynamically changing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) sources. This study examined the response of attached microbial communities ( in situ colonized sand packs) from groundwater, hyporheic, and riverbed habitats within the Columbia River hyporheic corridor to "cross-feeding" with either groundwater, river water, or DOC-free artificial fluids. Our working hypothesis was that deterministic selection during in situ colonization would dictate the response to cross-feeding, with communities displaying maximal biomass and respiration when supplied with their native fluid source. In contrast to expectations, the major observation was that the riverbed colonized sand had much higher biomass and respiratory activity, as well as a distinct community structure, compared with those of the hyporheic and groundwater colonized sands. 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing revealed a much higher proportion of certain heterotrophic taxa as well as significant numbers of eukaryotic algal chloroplasts in the riverbed colonized sand. Significant quantities of DOC were released from riverbed sediment and colonized sand, and separate experiments showed that the released DOC stimulated respiration in the groundwater and piezometer colonized sand. These results suggest that the accumulation and degradation of labile particulate organic carbon (POC) within the riverbed are likely to release DOC, which may enter the hyporheic corridor during hydrologic exchange, thereby stimulating microbial activity and imposing deterministic selective pressure on the microbial community composition. IMPORTANCE The influence of river water-groundwater mixing on hyporheic zone microbial community structure and function is an important but poorly understood component of riverine biogeochemistry. This study employed an experimental approach to gain insight into how such mixing might be expected to influence the biomass, respiration, and composition of hyporheic zone microbial communities. Colonized sands from three different habitats (groundwater, river water, and hyporheic) were "cross-fed" with either groundwater, river water, or DOC-free artificial fluids. We expected that the colonization history would dictate the response to cross-feeding, with communities displaying maximal biomass and respiration when supplied with their native fluid source. By contrast, the major observation was that the riverbed communities had much higher biomass and respiration, as well as a distinct community structure compared with those of the hyporheic and groundwater colonized sands. These results highlight the importance of riverbed microbial metabolism in organic carbon processing in hyporheic corridors. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

The Gains from Vertical Scaling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Briggs, Derek C.; Domingue, Ben

2013-01-01

It is often assumed that a vertical scale is necessary when value-added models depend upon the gain scores of students across two or more points in time. This article examines the conditions under which the scale transformations associated with the vertical scaling process would be expected to have a significant impact on normative interpretations…

Analysis of underlying and multiple-cause mortality data: the life table methods.

PubMed

Moussa, M A

1987-02-01

The stochastic compartment model concepts are employed to analyse and construct complete and abbreviated total mortality life tables, multiple-decrement life tables for a disease, under the underlying and pattern-of-failure definitions of mortality risk, cause-elimination life tables, cause-elimination effects on saved population through the gain in life expectancy as a consequence of eliminating the mortality risk, cause-delay life tables designed to translate the clinically observed increase in survival time as the population gain in life expectancy that would occur if a treatment protocol was made available to the general population and life tables for disease dependency in multiple-cause data.

Postnatal Growth Patterns in a Chilean Cohort: The Role of SES and Family Environment

PubMed Central

Kang Sim, D. E.; Cappiello, M.; Castillo, M.; Lozoff, B.; Martinez, S.; Blanco, E.; Gahagan, S.

2012-01-01

Objective. This study examined how family environmental characteristics served as mediators in the relationship between socioeconomic conditions and infant growth in a cohort of Chilean infants. Methods. We studied 999 infants, born between 1991 and 1996, from a longitudinal cohort which began as an iron deficiency anemia preventive trial. SES (Graffar Index), the Life Experiences Survey, and the Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment (HOME) were assessed in infancy. Using path analysis, we assessed the relationships between the social factors, home environment, and infant growth. Results. During the first year, weight and length gain averaged 540 grams/month and 6.5 cm/month, respectively. In the path analysis model for weight gain, higher SES and a better physical environment were positively related to higher maternal warmth, which in turn was associated with higher average weight gain. Higher SES was directly related to higher average length gain. Conclusions. In our cohort, a direct relationship between SES and length gain developed during infancy. Higher SES was indirectly related to infant weight gain through the home environment and maternal warmth. As the fastest growing infants are at risk for later obesity, new strategies are needed to encourage optimal rather than maximal growth. PMID:22666275

On the Teaching of Portfolio Theory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biederman, Daniel K.

1992-01-01

Demonstrates how a simple portfolio problem expressed explicitly as an expected utility maximization problem can be used to instruct students in portfolio theory. Discusses risk aversion, decision making under uncertainty, and the limitations of the traditional mean variance approach. Suggests students may develop a greater appreciation of general…

TIME SHARING WITH AN EXPLICIT PRIORITY QUEUING DISCIPLINE.

DTIC Science & Technology

exponentially distributed service times and an ordered priority queue. Each new arrival buys a position in this queue by offering a non-negative bribe to the...parameters is investigated through numerical examples. Finally, to maximize the expected revenue per unit time accruing from bribes , an optimization

Program Monitoring: Problems and Cases.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lundin, Edward; Welty, Gordon

Designed as the major component of a comprehensive model of educational management, a behavioral model of decision making is presented that approximates the synoptic model of neoclassical economic theory. The synoptic model defines all possible alternatives and provides a basis for choosing that alternative which maximizes expected utility. The…

A Bayesian Approach to Interactive Retrieval

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tague, Jean M.

1973-01-01

A probabilistic model for interactive retrieval is presented. Bayesian statistical decision theory principles are applied: use of prior and sample information about the relationship of document descriptions to query relevance; maximization of expected value of a utility function, to the problem of optimally restructuring search strategies in an…

Creating an Agent Based Framework to Maximize Information Utility

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

information utility may be a qualitative description of the information, where one would expect the adjectives low value, fair value , high value. For...operations. Information in this category may have a fair value rating. Finally, many seemingly unrelated events, such as reports of snipers in buildings

Robust radio interferometric calibration using the t-distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazemi, S.; Yatawatta, S.

2013-10-01

A major stage of radio interferometric data processing is calibration or the estimation of systematic errors in the data and the correction for such errors. A stochastic error (noise) model is assumed, and in most cases, this underlying model is assumed to be Gaussian. However, outliers in the data due to interference or due to errors in the sky model would have adverse effects on processing based on a Gaussian noise model. Most of the shortcomings of calibration such as the loss in flux or coherence, and the appearance of spurious sources, could be attributed to the deviations of the underlying noise model. In this paper, we propose to improve the robustness of calibration by using a noise model based on Student's t-distribution. Student's t-noise is a special case of Gaussian noise when the variance is unknown. Unlike Gaussian-noise-model-based calibration, traditional least-squares minimization would not directly extend to a case when we have a Student's t-noise model. Therefore, we use a variant of the expectation-maximization algorithm, called the expectation-conditional maximization either algorithm, when we have a Student's t-noise model and use the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in the maximization step. We give simulation results to show the robustness of the proposed calibration method as opposed to traditional Gaussian-noise-model-based calibration, especially in preserving the flux of weaker sources that are not included in the calibration model.

Can differences in breast cancer utilities explain disparities in breast cancer care?

PubMed

Schleinitz, Mark D; DePalo, Dina; Blume, Jeffrey; Stein, Michael

2006-12-01

Black, older, and less affluent women are less likely to receive adjuvant breast cancer therapy than their counterparts. Whereas preference contributes to disparities in other health care scenarios, it is unclear if preference explains differential rates of breast cancer care. To ascertain utilities from women of diverse backgrounds for the different stages of, and treatments for, breast cancer and to determine whether a treatment decision modeled from utilities is associated with socio-demographic characteristics. A stratified sample (by age and race) of 156 English-speaking women over 25 years old not currently undergoing breast cancer treatment. We assessed utilities using standard gamble for 5 breast cancer stages, and time-tradeoff for 3 therapeutic modalities. We incorporated each subject's utilities into a Markov model to determine whether her quality-adjusted life expectancy would be maximized with chemotherapy for a hypothetical, current diagnosis of stage II breast cancer. We used logistic regression to determine whether socio-demographic variables were associated with this optimal strategy. Median utilities for the 8 health states were: stage I disease, 0.91 (interquartile range 0.50 to 1.00); stage II, 0.75 (0.26 to 0.99); stage III, 0.51 (0.25 to 0.94); stage IV (estrogen receptor positive), 0.36 (0 to 0.75); stage IV (estrogen receptor negative), 0.40 (0 to 0.79); chemotherapy 0.50 (0 to 0.92); hormonal therapy 0.58 (0 to 1); and radiation therapy 0.83 (0.10 to 1). Utilities for early stage disease and treatment modalities, but not metastatic disease, varied with socio-demographic characteristics. One hundred and twenty-two of 156 subjects had utilities that maximized quality-adjusted life expectancy given stage II breast cancer with chemotherapy. Age over 50, black race, and low household income were associated with at least 5-fold lower odds of maximizing quality-adjusted life expectancy with chemotherapy, whereas women who were married or had a significant other were 4-fold more likely to maximize quality-adjusted life expectancy with chemotherapy. Differences in utility for breast cancer health states may partially explain the lower rate of adjuvant therapy for black, older, and less affluent women. Further work must clarify whether these differences result from health preference alone or reflect women's perceptions of sources of disparity, such as access to care, poor communication with providers, limitations in health knowledge or in obtaining social and workplace support during therapy.

Maximizing output power of a low-gain laser system.

PubMed

Carroll, D L; Sentman, L H

1993-07-20

Rigrod theory was used to model outcoupled power from a low-gain laser with good accuracy. For a low-gain overtone cw HF chemical laser, Rigrod theory shows that a higher medium saturation yields a higher overall overtone efficiency, but does not necessarily yield a higher measurable power (power in the bucket). For low-absorption-scattering loss overtone mirrors and a 5% penalty in outcoupled power, the intracavity flux and hence the mirror loading may be reduced by more than a factor of 2 when the gain length is long enough to saturate the medium well. For the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign overtone laser that has an extensive database with well-characterized mirrors for which the Rigrod parameters g(0) and I(sat) were firmly established, the accuracy to which the reflectivities of high-reflectivity overtone mirrors can be deduced by using measured mirror transmissivities, measured outcoupled power, and Rigrod theory is approximatly ±0.07%. This method of accurately deducing mirror reflectivities may be applicable to other low-gain laser systems that use high-reflectivity mirrors at different wavelengths. The maximum overtone efficiency is estimated to be approximately 80%-100%.

Cortical Brain Activity Reflecting Attentional Biasing Toward Reward-Predicting Cues Covaries with Economic Decision-Making Performance.

PubMed

San Martín, René; Appelbaum, Lawrence G; Huettel, Scott A; Woldorff, Marty G

2016-01-01

Adaptive choice behavior depends critically on identifying and learning from outcome-predicting cues. We hypothesized that attention may be preferentially directed toward certain outcome-predicting cues. We studied this possibility by analyzing event-related potential (ERP) responses in humans during a probabilistic decision-making task. Participants viewed pairs of outcome-predicting visual cues and then chose to wager either a small (i.e., loss-minimizing) or large (i.e., gain-maximizing) amount of money. The cues were bilaterally presented, which allowed us to extract the relative neural responses to each cue by using a contralateral-versus-ipsilateral ERP contrast. We found an early lateralized ERP response, whose features matched the attention-shift-related N2pc component and whose amplitude scaled with the learned reward-predicting value of the cues as predicted by an attention-for-reward model. Consistently, we found a double dissociation involving the N2pc. Across participants, gain-maximization positively correlated with the N2pc amplitude to the most reliable gain-predicting cue, suggesting an attentional bias toward such cues. Conversely, loss-minimization was negatively correlated with the N2pc amplitude to the most reliable loss-predicting cue, suggesting an attentional avoidance toward such stimuli. These results indicate that learned stimulus-reward associations can influence rapid attention allocation, and that differences in this process are associated with individual differences in economic decision-making performance. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Hydraulics of high-yield orchard trees: a case study of three Malus domestica cultivars.

PubMed

Beikircher, Barbara; De Cesare, Chiara; Mayr, Stefan

2013-12-01

The drought tolerance of three economically important apple cultivars, Golden Delicious, Braeburn and Red Delicious, was analysed. The work offers insights into the hydraulics of these high-yield trees and indicates a possible hydraulic limitation of carbon gain. The hydraulic safety and efficiency of branch xylem and leaves were quantified, drought tolerance of living tissues was measured and stomatal regulation, turgor-loss point and osmotic potential at full turgor were analysed. Physiological measurements were correlated with anatomical parameters, such as conduit diameter, cell-wall reinforcement, stomatal density and stomatal pore length. Hydraulic safety differed considerably between the three cultivars with Golden Delicious being significantly less vulnerable to drought-induced embolism than Braeburn and Red Delicious. In Golden Delicious, leaves were less resistant than branch xylem, while in the other cultivars leaves were more resistant than branch xylem. Hydraulic efficiency and xylem anatomical measurements indicate differences in pit properties, which may also be responsible for variations in hydraulic safety. In all three cultivars, full stomatal closure occurred at water potentials where turgor had already been lost and severe loss of hydraulic conductivity as well as damage to living cells had been induced. The consequential negative safety margins pose a risk for hydraulic failure but facilitate carbon gain, which is further improved by the observed high stomatal conductance. Maximal stomatal conductance was clearly seen to be related to stomatal density and size. Based on our results, these three high-yield Malus domestica Borkh. cultivars span a wide range of drought tolerances, appear optimized for maximal carbon gain and, thus, all perform best under well-managed growing conditions.

The gains in life expectancy by ambient PM2.5 pollution reductions in localities in Nigeria.

PubMed

Etchie, Tunde O; Etchie, Ayotunde T; Adewuyi, Gregory O; Pillarisetti, Ajay; Sivanesan, Saravanadevi; Krishnamurthi, Kannan; Arora, Narendra K

2018-05-01

Global burden of disease estimates reveal that people in Nigeria are living shorter lifespan than the regional or global average life expectancy. Ambient air pollution is a top risk factor responsible for the reduced longevity. But, the magnitude of the loss or the gains in longevity accruing from the pollution reductions, which are capable of driving mitigation interventions in Nigeria, remain unknown. Thus, we estimate the loss, and the gains in longevity resulting from ambient PM 2.5 pollution reductions at the local sub-national level using life table approach. Surface average PM 2.5 concentration datasets covering Nigeria with spatial resolution of ∼1 km were obtained from the global gridded concentration fields, and combined with ∼1 km gridded population of the world (GPWv4), and global administrative unit layers (GAUL) for territorial boundaries classification. We estimate the loss or gains in longevity using population-weighted average pollution level and baseline mortality data for cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer in adults ≥25 years and for respiratory infection in children under 5. As at 2015, there are six "highly polluted", thirty "polluted" and one "moderately polluted" States in Nigeria. People residing in these States lose ∼3.8-4.0, 3.0-3.6 and 2.7 years of life expectancy, respectively, due to the pollution exposure. But, assuming interventions achieve global air quality guideline of 10 μg/m 3 , longevity would increase by 2.6-2.9, 1.9-2.5 and 1.6 years for people in the State-categories, respectively. The longevity gains are indeed high, but to achieve them, mitigation interventions should target emission sources having the highest population exposures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal joint detection and estimation that maximizes ROC-type curves

PubMed Central

Wunderlich, Adam; Goossens, Bart; Abbey, Craig K.

2017-01-01

Combined detection-estimation tasks are frequently encountered in medical imaging. Optimal methods for joint detection and estimation are of interest because they provide upper bounds on observer performance, and can potentially be utilized for imaging system optimization, evaluation of observer efficiency, and development of image formation algorithms. We present a unified Bayesian framework for decision rules that maximize receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-type summary curves, including ROC, localization ROC (LROC), estimation ROC (EROC), free-response ROC (FROC), alternative free-response ROC (AFROC), and exponentially-transformed FROC (EFROC) curves, succinctly summarizing previous results. The approach relies on an interpretation of ROC-type summary curves as plots of an expected utility versus an expected disutility (or penalty) for signal-present decisions. We propose a general utility structure that is flexible enough to encompass many ROC variants and yet sufficiently constrained to allow derivation of a linear expected utility equation that is similar to that for simple binary detection. We illustrate our theory with an example comparing decision strategies for joint detection-estimation of a known signal with unknown amplitude. In addition, building on insights from our utility framework, we propose new ROC-type summary curves and associated optimal decision rules for joint detection-estimation tasks with an unknown, potentially-multiple, number of signals in each observation. PMID:27093544

Optimal Joint Detection and Estimation That Maximizes ROC-Type Curves.

PubMed

Wunderlich, Adam; Goossens, Bart; Abbey, Craig K

2016-09-01

Combined detection-estimation tasks are frequently encountered in medical imaging. Optimal methods for joint detection and estimation are of interest because they provide upper bounds on observer performance, and can potentially be utilized for imaging system optimization, evaluation of observer efficiency, and development of image formation algorithms. We present a unified Bayesian framework for decision rules that maximize receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-type summary curves, including ROC, localization ROC (LROC), estimation ROC (EROC), free-response ROC (FROC), alternative free-response ROC (AFROC), and exponentially-transformed FROC (EFROC) curves, succinctly summarizing previous results. The approach relies on an interpretation of ROC-type summary curves as plots of an expected utility versus an expected disutility (or penalty) for signal-present decisions. We propose a general utility structure that is flexible enough to encompass many ROC variants and yet sufficiently constrained to allow derivation of a linear expected utility equation that is similar to that for simple binary detection. We illustrate our theory with an example comparing decision strategies for joint detection-estimation of a known signal with unknown amplitude. In addition, building on insights from our utility framework, we propose new ROC-type summary curves and associated optimal decision rules for joint detection-estimation tasks with an unknown, potentially-multiple, number of signals in each observation.

Optimal threshold estimator of a prognostic marker by maximizing a time-dependent expected utility function for a patient-centered stratified medicine.

PubMed

Dantan, Etienne; Foucher, Yohann; Lorent, Marine; Giral, Magali; Tessier, Philippe

2018-06-01

Defining thresholds of prognostic markers is essential for stratified medicine. Such thresholds are mostly estimated from purely statistical measures regardless of patient preferences potentially leading to unacceptable medical decisions. Quality-Adjusted Life-Years are a widely used preferences-based measure of health outcomes. We develop a time-dependent Quality-Adjusted Life-Years-based expected utility function for censored data that should be maximized to estimate an optimal threshold. We performed a simulation study to compare estimated thresholds when using the proposed expected utility approach and purely statistical estimators. Two applications illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methodology which was implemented in the R package ROCt ( www.divat.fr ). First, by reanalysing data of a randomized clinical trial comparing the efficacy of prednisone vs. placebo in patients with chronic liver cirrhosis, we demonstrate the utility of treating patients with a prothrombin level higher than 89%. Second, we reanalyze the data of an observational cohort of kidney transplant recipients: we conclude to the uselessness of the Kidney Transplant Failure Score to adapt the frequency of clinical visits. Applying such a patient-centered methodology may improve future transfer of novel prognostic scoring systems or markers in clinical practice.

Mother doesn't always know best: Maternal wormlion choice of oviposition habitat does not match larval habitat choice.

PubMed

Adar, Shay; Dor, Roi

2018-02-01

Habitat choice is an important decision that influences animals' fitness. Insect larvae are less mobile than the adults. Consequently, the contribution of the maternal choice of habitat to the survival and development of the offspring is considered to be crucial. According to the "preference-performance hypothesis", ovipositing females are expected to choose habitats that will maximize the performance of their offspring. We tested this hypothesis in wormlions (Diptera: Vermileonidae), which are small sand-dwelling insects that dig pit-traps in sandy patches and ambush small arthropods. Larvae prefer relatively deep and obstacle-free sand, and here we tested the habitat preference of the ovipositing female. In contrast to our expectation, ovipositing females showed no clear preference for either a deep sand or obstacle-free habitat, in contrast to the larval choice. This suboptimal female choice led to smaller pits being constructed later by the larvae, which may reduce prey capture success of the larvae. We offer several explanations for this apparently suboptimal female behavior, related either to maximizing maternal rather than offspring fitness, or to constraints on the female's behavior. Female's ovipositing habitat choice may have weaker negative consequences than expected for the offspring, as larvae can partially correct suboptimal maternal choice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Disconnections between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

2008-01-01

This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students' general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important…

6 Essential Questions for Problem Solving

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kress, Nancy Emerson

2017-01-01

One of the primary expectations that the author has for her students is for them to develop greater independence when solving complex and unique mathematical problems. The story of how the author supports her students as they gain confidence and independence with complex and unique problem-solving tasks, while honoring their expectations with…

Diverging Life Expectancies and Voting Patterns in the 2016 US Presidential Election

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Objectives. To assess whether voting patterns in the 2016 US presidential election were correlated with long-run trends in county life expectancy. Methods. I examined county-level voting data from the 2008 and 2016 presidential elections and assessed Donald Trump’s share of the 2016 vote, change in the Republican vote share between 2008 and 2016, and changes in absolute numbers of Democratic and Republican votes. County-level estimates of life expectancy at birth were obtained for 1980 and 2014 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Results. Changes in county life expectancy from 1980 to 2014 were strongly negatively associated with Trump’s vote share, with less support for Trump in counties experiencing greater survival gains. Counties in which life expectancy stagnated or declined saw a 10-percentage-point increase in the Republican vote share between 2008 and 2016. Conclusions. Residents of counties left out from broader life expectancy gains abandoned the Democratic Party in the 2016 presidential election. Since coming to power, the Trump administration has proposed cuts to health insurance for the poor, social programs, health research, and environmental and worker protections, which are key determinants of population health. Health gaps likely will continue to widen without significant public investment in population health. PMID:28817322

Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

PubMed

Todinov, M T

2006-04-01

The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the early-life failures region and the expected losses given failure characterizing the corresponding time intervals. For complex systems whose components are not logically arranged in series, discrete simulation algorithms and software have been created for determining the losses from failures in terms of expected lost production time, cost of intervention, and cost of replacement. Different system topologies are assessed to determine the effect of modifications of the system topology on the expected losses from failures. It is argued that the reliability allocation in a production system should be done to maximize the profit/value associated with the system. Consequently, a method for setting reliability requirements and reliability allocation maximizing the profit by minimizing the total cost has been developed. Reliability allocation that maximizes the profit in case of a system consisting of blocks arranged in series is achieved by determining for each block individually the reliabilities of the components in the block that minimize the sum of the capital, operation costs, and the expected losses from failures. A Monte Carlo simulation based net present value (NPV) cash-flow model has also been proposed, which has significant advantages to cash-flow models based on the expected value of the losses from failures per time interval. Unlike these models, the proposed model has the capability to reveal the variation of the NPV due to different number of failures occurring during a specified time interval (e.g., during one year). The model also permits tracking the impact of the distribution pattern of failure occurrences and the time dependence of the losses from failures.

The evolution of utility functions and psychological altruism.

PubMed

Clavien, Christine; Chapuisat, Michel

2016-04-01

Numerous studies show that humans tend to be more cooperative than expected given the assumption that they are rational maximizers of personal gain. As a result, theoreticians have proposed elaborated formal representations of human decision-making, in which utility functions including "altruistic" or "moral" preferences replace the purely self-oriented "Homo economicus" function. Here we review mathematical approaches that provide insights into the mathematical stability of alternative utility functions. Candidate utility functions may be evaluated with help of game theory, classical modeling of social evolution that focuses on behavioral strategies, and modeling of social evolution that focuses directly on utility functions. We present the advantages of the latter form of investigation and discuss one surprisingly precise result: "Homo economicus" as well as "altruistic" utility functions are less stable than a function containing a preference for the common welfare that is only expressed in social contexts composed of individuals with similar preferences. We discuss the contribution of mathematical models to our understanding of human other-oriented behavior, with a focus on the classical debate over psychological altruism. We conclude that human can be psychologically altruistic, but that psychological altruism evolved because it was generally expressed towards individuals that contributed to the actor's fitness, such as own children, romantic partners and long term reciprocators. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk-based management of invading plant disease.

PubMed

Hyatt-Twynam, Samuel R; Parnell, Stephen; Stutt, Richard O J H; Gottwald, Tim R; Gilligan, Christopher A; Cunniffe, Nik J

2017-05-01

Effective control of plant disease remains a key challenge. Eradication attempts often involve removal of host plants within a certain radius of detection, targeting asymptomatic infection. Here we develop and test potentially more effective, epidemiologically motivated, control strategies, using a mathematical model previously fitted to the spread of citrus canker in Florida. We test risk-based control, which preferentially removes hosts expected to cause a high number of infections in the remaining host population. Removals then depend on past patterns of pathogen spread and host removal, which might be nontransparent to affected stakeholders. This motivates a variable radius strategy, which approximates risk-based control via removal radii that vary by location, but which are fixed in advance of any epidemic. Risk-based control outperforms variable radius control, which in turn outperforms constant radius removal. This result is robust to changes in disease spread parameters and initial patterns of susceptible host plants. However, efficiency degrades if epidemiological parameters are incorrectly characterised. Risk-based control including additional epidemiology can be used to improve disease management, but it requires good prior knowledge for optimal performance. This focuses attention on gaining maximal information from past epidemics, on understanding model transferability between locations and on adaptive management strategies that change over time. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Robust decoding of selective auditory attention from MEG in a competing-speaker environment via state-space modeling✩

PubMed Central

Akram, Sahar; Presacco, Alessandro; Simon, Jonathan Z.; Shamma, Shihab A.; Babadi, Behtash

2015-01-01

The underlying mechanism of how the human brain solves the cocktail party problem is largely unknown. Recent neuroimaging studies, however, suggest salient temporal correlations between the auditory neural response and the attended auditory object. Using magnetoencephalography (MEG) recordings of the neural responses of human subjects, we propose a decoding approach for tracking the attentional state while subjects are selectively listening to one of the two speech streams embedded in a competing-speaker environment. We develop a biophysically-inspired state-space model to account for the modulation of the neural response with respect to the attentional state of the listener. The constructed decoder is based on a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of the state parameters via the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. Using only the envelope of the two speech streams as covariates, the proposed decoder enables us to track the attentional state of the listener with a temporal resolution of the order of seconds, together with statistical confidence intervals. We evaluate the performance of the proposed model using numerical simulations and experimentally measured evoked MEG responses from the human brain. Our analysis reveals considerable performance gains provided by the state-space model in terms of temporal resolution, computational complexity and decoding accuracy. PMID:26436490

Modeling of Mean-VaR portfolio optimization by risk tolerance when the utility function is quadratic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukono, Sidi, Pramono; Bon, Abdul Talib bin; Supian, Sudradjat

2017-03-01

The problems of investing in financial assets are to choose a combination of weighting a portfolio can be maximized return expectations and minimizing the risk. This paper discusses the modeling of Mean-VaR portfolio optimization by risk tolerance, when square-shaped utility functions. It is assumed that the asset return has a certain distribution, and the risk of the portfolio is measured using the Value-at-Risk (VaR). So, the process of optimization of the portfolio is done based on the model of Mean-VaR portfolio optimization model for the Mean-VaR done using matrix algebra approach, and the Lagrange multiplier method, as well as Khun-Tucker. The results of the modeling portfolio optimization is in the form of a weighting vector equations depends on the vector mean return vector assets, identities, and matrix covariance between return of assets, as well as a factor in risk tolerance. As an illustration of numeric, analyzed five shares traded on the stock market in Indonesia. Based on analysis of five stocks return data gained the vector of weight composition and graphics of efficient surface of portfolio. Vector composition weighting weights and efficient surface charts can be used as a guide for investors in decisions to invest.

Use of radial symmetry for the calculation of cylindrical absorption coefficients and optimal capillary loadings

DOE PAGES

Khalifah, Peter

2015-02-01

The problem of numerically evaluating absorption correction factors for cylindrical samples has been revisited using a treatment that fully takes advantage of the sample symmetry. It is shown that the path lengths for all points within the sample at all possible diffraction angles can be trivially determined once the angle-dependent distance distribution for a single line of points is calculated. This provides advantages in both computational efficiency and in gaining an intuitive understanding of the effects of absorption on diffraction data. A matrix of absorption coefficients calculated for µR products between 0 and 20 for diffraction angles θ D ofmore » 0° to 90° were used to examine the influence of (1) capillary diameter and of (2) sample density on the overall scattered intensity as a function of diffraction angle, where µ is the linear absorption coefficient for the sample and R is the capillary radius. Based on this analysis, the optimal sample loading for a capillary experiment to maximize diffraction at angles of 0 – 50° is in general expected to be achieved when the maximum radius capillary compatible with the beam is used, and when the sample density is adjusted to be 3/(4µR) of its original density.« less

Evaluation of non-animal methods for assessing skin sensitisation hazard: A Bayesian Value-of-Information analysis.

PubMed

Leontaridou, Maria; Gabbert, Silke; Van Ierland, Ekko C; Worth, Andrew P; Landsiedel, Robert

2016-07-01

This paper offers a Bayesian Value-of-Information (VOI) analysis for guiding the development of non-animal testing strategies, balancing information gains from testing with the expected social gains and costs from the adoption of regulatory decisions. Testing is assumed to have value, if, and only if, the information revealed from testing triggers a welfare-improving decision on the use (or non-use) of a substance. As an illustration, our VOI model is applied to a set of five individual non-animal prediction methods used for skin sensitisation hazard assessment, seven battery combinations of these methods, and 236 sequential 2-test and 3-test strategies. Their expected values are quantified and compared to the expected value of the local lymph node assay (LLNA) as the animal method. We find that battery and sequential combinations of non-animal prediction methods reveal a significantly higher expected value than the LLNA. This holds for the entire range of prior beliefs. Furthermore, our results illustrate that the testing strategy with the highest expected value does not necessarily have to follow the order of key events in the sensitisation adverse outcome pathway (AOP). 2016 FRAME.

On valuing information in adaptive-management models.

PubMed

Moore, Alana L; McCarthy, Michael A

2010-08-01

Active adaptive management looks at the benefit of using strategies that may be suboptimal in the near term but may provide additional information that will facilitate better management in the future. In many adaptive-management problems that have been studied, the optimal active and passive policies (accounting for learning when designing policies and designing policy on the basis of current best information, respectively) are very similar. This seems paradoxical; when faced with uncertainty about the best course of action, managers should spend very little effort on actively designing programs to learn about the system they are managing. We considered two possible reasons why active and passive adaptive solutions are often similar. First, the benefits of learning are often confined to the particular case study in the modeled scenario, whereas in reality information gained from local studies is often applied more broadly. Second, management objectives that incorporate the variance of an estimate may place greater emphasis on learning than more commonly used objectives that aim to maximize an expected value. We explored these issues in a case study of Merri Creek, Melbourne, Australia, in which the aim was to choose between two options for revegetation. We explicitly incorporated monitoring costs in the model. The value of the terminal rewards and the choice of objective both influenced the difference between active and passive adaptive solutions. Explicitly considering the cost of monitoring provided a different perspective on how the terminal reward and management objective affected learning. The states for which it was optimal to monitor did not always coincide with the states in which active and passive adaptive management differed. Our results emphasize that spending resources on monitoring is only optimal when the expected benefits of the options being considered are similar and when the pay-off for learning about their benefits is large.

Allocating dissipation across a molecular machine cycle to maximize flux

PubMed Central

Brown, Aidan I.; Sivak, David A.

2017-01-01

Biomolecular machines consume free energy to break symmetry and make directed progress. Nonequilibrium ATP concentrations are the typical free energy source, with one cycle of a molecular machine consuming a certain number of ATP, providing a fixed free energy budget. Since evolution is expected to favor rapid-turnover machines that operate efficiently, we investigate how this free energy budget can be allocated to maximize flux. Unconstrained optimization eliminates intermediate metastable states, indicating that flux is enhanced in molecular machines with fewer states. When maintaining a set number of states, we show that—in contrast to previous findings—the flux-maximizing allocation of dissipation is not even. This result is consistent with the coexistence of both “irreversible” and reversible transitions in molecular machine models that successfully describe experimental data, which suggests that, in evolved machines, different transitions differ significantly in their dissipation. PMID:29073016

Maximum likelihood estimation and EM algorithm of Copas-like selection model for publication bias correction.

PubMed

Ning, Jing; Chen, Yong; Piao, Jin

2017-07-01

Publication bias occurs when the published research results are systematically unrepresentative of the population of studies that have been conducted, and is a potential threat to meaningful meta-analysis. The Copas selection model provides a flexible framework for correcting estimates and offers considerable insight into the publication bias. However, maximizing the observed likelihood under the Copas selection model is challenging because the observed data contain very little information on the latent variable. In this article, we study a Copas-like selection model and propose an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for estimation based on the full likelihood. Empirical simulation studies show that the EM algorithm and its associated inferential procedure performs well and avoids the non-convergence problem when maximizing the observed likelihood. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An integrated prediction and optimization model of biogas production system at a wastewater treatment facility.

PubMed

Akbaş, Halil; Bilgen, Bilge; Turhan, Aykut Melih

2015-11-01

This study proposes an integrated prediction and optimization model by using multi-layer perceptron neural network and particle swarm optimization techniques. Three different objective functions are formulated. The first one is the maximization of methane percentage with single output. The second one is the maximization of biogas production with single output. The last one is the maximization of biogas quality and biogas production with two outputs. Methane percentage, carbon dioxide percentage, and other contents' percentage are used as the biogas quality criteria. Based on the formulated models and data from a wastewater treatment facility, optimal values of input variables and their corresponding maximum output values are found out for each model. It is expected that the application of the integrated prediction and optimization models increases the biogas production and biogas quality, and contributes to the quantity of electricity production at the wastewater treatment facility. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimisation of the mean boat velocity in rowing.

PubMed

Rauter, G; Baumgartner, L; Denoth, J; Riener, R; Wolf, P

2012-01-01

In rowing, motor learning may be facilitated by augmented feedback that displays the ratio between actual mean boat velocity and maximal achievable mean boat velocity. To provide this ratio, the aim of this work was to develop and evaluate an algorithm calculating an individual maximal mean boat velocity. The algorithm optimised the horizontal oar movement under constraints such as the individual range of the horizontal oar displacement, individual timing of catch and release and an individual power-angle relation. Immersion and turning of the oar were simplified, and the seat movement of a professional rower was implemented. The feasibility of the algorithm, and of the associated ratio between actual boat velocity and optimised boat velocity, was confirmed by a study on four subjects: as expected, advanced rowing skills resulted in higher ratios, and the maximal mean boat velocity depended on the range of the horizontal oar displacement.

The priority heuristic: making choices without trade-offs.

PubMed

Brandstätter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

2006-04-01

Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, the authors generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic predicts (a) the Allais paradox, (b) risk aversion for gains if probabilities are high, (c) risk seeking for gains if probabilities are low (e.g., lottery tickets), (d) risk aversion for losses if probabilities are low (e.g., buying insurance), (e) risk seeking for losses if probabilities are high, (f) the certainty effect, (g) the possibility effect, and (h) intransitivities. The authors test how accurately the heuristic predicts people's choices, compared with previously proposed heuristics and 3 modifications of expected utility theory: security-potential/aspiration theory, transfer-of-attention-exchange model, and cumulative prospect theory. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Task complexity and maximal isometric strength gains through motor learning

PubMed Central

McGuire, Jessica; Green, Lara A.; Gabriel, David A.

2014-01-01

Abstract This study compared the effects of a simple versus complex contraction pattern on the acquisition, retention, and transfer of maximal isometric strength gains and reductions in force variability. A control group (N = 12) performed simple isometric contractions of the wrist flexors. An experimental group (N = 12) performed complex proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation (PNF) contractions consisting of maximal isometric wrist extension immediately reversing force direction to wrist flexion within a single trial. Ten contractions were completed on three consecutive days with a retention and transfer test 2‐weeks later. For the retention test, the groups performed their assigned contraction pattern followed by a transfer test that consisted of the other contraction pattern for a cross‐over design. Both groups exhibited comparable increases in strength (20.2%, P < 0.01) and reductions in mean torque variability (26.2%, P < 0.01), which were retained and transferred. There was a decrease in the coactivation ratio (antagonist/agonist muscle activity) for both groups, which was retained and transferred (35.2%, P < 0.01). The experimental group exhibited a linear decrease in variability of the torque‐ and sEMG‐time curves, indicating transfer to the simple contraction pattern (P < 0.01). The control group underwent a decrease in variability of the torque‐ and sEMG‐time curves from the first day of training to retention, but participants returned to baseline levels during the transfer condition (P < 0.01). However, the difference between torque RMS error versus the variability in torque‐ and sEMG‐time curves suggests the demands of the complex task were transferred, but could not be achieved in a reproducible way. PMID:25428951

Effect of Repeated Whole Blood Donations on Aerobic Capacity and Hemoglobin Mass in Moderately Trained Male Subjects: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Meurrens, Julie; Steiner, Thomas; Ponette, Jonathan; Janssen, Hans Antonius; Ramaekers, Monique; Wehrlin, Jon Peter; Vandekerckhove, Philippe; Deldicque, Louise

2016-12-01

The aims of the present study were to investigate the impact of three whole blood donations on endurance capacity and hematological parameters and to determine the duration to fully recover initial endurance capacity and hematological parameters after each donation. Twenty-four moderately trained subjects were randomly divided in a donation (n = 16) and a placebo (n = 8) group. Each of the three donations was interspersed by 3 months, and the recovery of endurance capacity and hematological parameters was monitored up to 1 month after donation. Maximal power output, peak oxygen consumption, and hemoglobin mass decreased (p < 0.001) up to 4 weeks after a single blood donation with a maximal decrease of 4, 10, and 7%, respectively. Hematocrit, hemoglobin concentration, ferritin, and red blood cell count (RBC), all key hematological parameters for oxygen transport, were lowered by a single donation (p < 0.001) and cumulatively further affected by the repetition of the donations (p < 0.001). The maximal decrease after a blood donation was 11% for hematocrit, 10% for hemoglobin concentration, 50% for ferritin, and 12% for RBC (p < 0.001). Maximal power output cumulatively increased in the placebo group as the maximal exercise tests were repeated (p < 0.001), which indicates positive training adaptations. This increase in maximal power output over the whole duration of the study was not observed in the donation group. Maximal, but not submaximal, endurance capacity was altered after blood donation in moderately trained people and the expected increase in capacity after multiple maximal exercise tests was not present when repeating whole blood donations.

Auditory Time-Frequency Masking for Spectrally and Temporally Maximally-Compact Stimuli

PubMed Central

Laback, Bernhard; Savel, Sophie; Ystad, Sølvi; Balazs, Peter; Meunier, Sabine; Kronland-Martinet, Richard

2016-01-01

Many audio applications perform perception-based time-frequency (TF) analysis by decomposing sounds into a set of functions with good TF localization (i.e. with a small essential support in the TF domain) using TF transforms and applying psychoacoustic models of auditory masking to the transform coefficients. To accurately predict masking interactions between coefficients, the TF properties of the model should match those of the transform. This involves having masking data for stimuli with good TF localization. However, little is known about TF masking for mathematically well-localized signals. Most existing masking studies used stimuli that are broad in time and/or frequency and few studies involved TF conditions. Consequently, the present study had two goals. The first was to collect TF masking data for well-localized stimuli in humans. Masker and target were 10-ms Gaussian-shaped sinusoids with a bandwidth of approximately one critical band. The overall pattern of results is qualitatively similar to existing data for long maskers. To facilitate implementation in audio processing algorithms, a dataset provides the measured TF masking function. The second goal was to assess the potential effect of auditory efferents on TF masking using a modeling approach. The temporal window model of masking was used to predict present and existing data in two configurations: (1) with standard model parameters (i.e. without efferents), (2) with cochlear gain reduction to simulate the activation of efferents. The ability of the model to predict the present data was quite good with the standard configuration but highly degraded with gain reduction. Conversely, the ability of the model to predict existing data for long maskers was better with than without gain reduction. Overall, the model predictions suggest that TF masking can be affected by efferent (or other) effects that reduce cochlear gain. Such effects were avoided in the experiment of this study by using maximally-compact stimuli. PMID:27875575

Auditory Time-Frequency Masking for Spectrally and Temporally Maximally-Compact Stimuli.

PubMed

Necciari, Thibaud; Laback, Bernhard; Savel, Sophie; Ystad, Sølvi; Balazs, Peter; Meunier, Sabine; Kronland-Martinet, Richard

2016-01-01

Many audio applications perform perception-based time-frequency (TF) analysis by decomposing sounds into a set of functions with good TF localization (i.e. with a small essential support in the TF domain) using TF transforms and applying psychoacoustic models of auditory masking to the transform coefficients. To accurately predict masking interactions between coefficients, the TF properties of the model should match those of the transform. This involves having masking data for stimuli with good TF localization. However, little is known about TF masking for mathematically well-localized signals. Most existing masking studies used stimuli that are broad in time and/or frequency and few studies involved TF conditions. Consequently, the present study had two goals. The first was to collect TF masking data for well-localized stimuli in humans. Masker and target were 10-ms Gaussian-shaped sinusoids with a bandwidth of approximately one critical band. The overall pattern of results is qualitatively similar to existing data for long maskers. To facilitate implementation in audio processing algorithms, a dataset provides the measured TF masking function. The second goal was to assess the potential effect of auditory efferents on TF masking using a modeling approach. The temporal window model of masking was used to predict present and existing data in two configurations: (1) with standard model parameters (i.e. without efferents), (2) with cochlear gain reduction to simulate the activation of efferents. The ability of the model to predict the present data was quite good with the standard configuration but highly degraded with gain reduction. Conversely, the ability of the model to predict existing data for long maskers was better with than without gain reduction. Overall, the model predictions suggest that TF masking can be affected by efferent (or other) effects that reduce cochlear gain. Such effects were avoided in the experiment of this study by using maximally-compact stimuli.

Maximum Likelihood and Minimum Distance Applied to Univariate Mixture Distributions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Yuh-Yin Wu; Schafer, William D.

This Monte-Carlo study compared modified Newton (NW), expectation-maximization algorithm (EM), and minimum Cramer-von Mises distance (MD), used to estimate parameters of univariate mixtures of two components. Data sets were fixed at size 160 and manipulated by mean separation, variance ratio, component proportion, and non-normality. Results…

Aging Education: A Worldwide Imperative

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGuire, Sandra L.

2017-01-01

Life expectancy is increasing worldwide. Unfortunately, people are generally not prepared for this long life ahead and have ageist attitudes that inhibit maximizing the "longevity dividend" they have been given. Aging education can prepare people for life's later years and combat ageism. It can reimage aging as a time of continued…

IRT Item Parameter Recovery with Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Loglinear Smoothing Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lewis, Charles

2015-01-01

Loglinear smoothing (LLS) estimates the latent trait distribution while making fewer assumptions about its form and maintaining parsimony, thus leading to more precise item response theory (IRT) item parameter estimates than standard marginal maximum likelihood (MML). This article provides the expectation-maximization algorithm for MML estimation…

The Probabilistic Nature of Preferential Choice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rieskamp, Jorg

2008-01-01

Previous research has developed a variety of theories explaining when and why people's decisions under risk deviate from the standard economic view of expected utility maximization. These theories are limited in their predictive accuracy in that they do not explain the probabilistic nature of preferential choice, that is, why an individual makes…

Relevance of a Managerial Decision-Model to Educational Administration.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lundin, Edward.; Welty, Gordon

The rational model of classical economic theory assumes that the decision maker has complete information on alternatives and consequences, and that he chooses the alternative that maximizes expected utility. This model does not allow for constraints placed on the decision maker resulting from lack of information, organizational pressures,…

India's growing participation in global clinical trials.

PubMed

Gupta, Yogendra K; Padhy, Biswa M

2011-06-01

Lower operational costs, recent regulatory reforms and several logistic advantages make India an attractive destination for conducting clinical trials. Efforts for maintaining stringent ethical standards and the launch of Pharmacovigilance Program of India are expected to maximize the potential of the country for clinical research. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Stochastic Approximation Methods for Latent Regression Item Response Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

von Davier, Matthias; Sinharay, Sandip

2010-01-01

This article presents an application of a stochastic approximation expectation maximization (EM) algorithm using a Metropolis-Hastings (MH) sampler to estimate the parameters of an item response latent regression model. Latent regression item response models are extensions of item response theory (IRT) to a latent variable model with covariates…

A Comparative Study of Online Item Calibration Methods in Multidimensional Computerized Adaptive Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Ping

2017-01-01

Calibration of new items online has been an important topic in item replenishment for multidimensional computerized adaptive testing (MCAT). Several online calibration methods have been proposed for MCAT, such as multidimensional "one expectation-maximization (EM) cycle" (M-OEM) and multidimensional "multiple EM cycles"…

Optimization Techniques for College Financial Aid Managers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bosshardt, Donald I.; Lichtenstein, Larry; Palumbo, George; Zaporowski, Mark P.

2010-01-01

In the context of a theoretical model of expected profit maximization, this paper shows how historic institutional data can be used to assist enrollment managers in determining the level of financial aid for students with varying demographic and quality characteristics. Optimal tuition pricing in conjunction with empirical estimation of…

An Investigation of the Nontechnical Skills Required to Maximize the Safety and Productivity of U.S. Navy Divers

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-04-01

experience. The critical incident interview uses recollection of a specific incident as its starting point and employs a semistructured interview format...context assessment, expectancies, and judgments. The four sweeps in the critical incident interview include: Sweep 1 - Prompting the interviewee to

An EM Algorithm for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Process Factor Analysis Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Taehun

2010-01-01

In this dissertation, an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is developed and implemented to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters and the associated standard error estimates characterizing temporal flows for the latent variable time series following stationary vector ARMA processes, as well as the parameters defining the…

Common Core in the Real World

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hess, Frederick M.; McShane, Michael Q.

2013-01-01

There are at least four key places where the Common Core intersects with current efforts to improve education in the United States--testing, professional development, expectations, and accountability. Understanding them can help educators, parents, and policymakers maximize the chance that the Common Core is helpful to these efforts and, perhaps…

Designing Contributing Student Pedagogies to Promote Students' Intrinsic Motivation to Learn

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herman, Geoffrey L.

2012-01-01

In order to maximize the effectiveness of our pedagogies, we must understand how our pedagogies align with prevailing theories of cognition and motivation and design our pedagogies according to this understanding. When implementing Contributing Student Pedagogies (CSPs), students are expected to make meaningful contributions to the learning of…

Charter School Discipline: Examples of Policies and School Climate Efforts from the Field

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kern, Nora; Kim, Suzie

2016-01-01

Students need a safe and supportive school environment to maximize their academic and social-emotional learning potential. A school's discipline policies and practices directly impact school climate and student achievement. Together, discipline policies and positive school climate efforts can reinforce behavioral expectations and ensure student…

In the queue for coronary artery bypass grafting: patients' perceptions of risk and 'maximal acceptable waiting time'.

PubMed

Llewellyn-Thomas, H; Thiel, E; Paterson, M; Naylor, D

1999-04-01

To elicit patients' maximal acceptable waiting times (MAWT) for non-urgent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), and to determine if MAWT is related to prior expectations of waiting times, symptom burden, expected relief, or perceived risks of myocardial infarction while waiting. Seventy-two patients on an elective CABG waiting list chose between two hypothetical but plausible options: a 1-month wait with 2% risk of surgical mortality, and a 6-month wait with 1% risk of surgical mortality. Waiting time in the 6-month option was varied up if respondents chose the 6-month/lower risk option, and down if they chose the 1-month/higher risk option, until the MAWT switch point was reached. Patients also reported their expected waiting time, perceived risks of myocardial infarction while waiting, current function, expected functional improvement and the value of that improvement. Only 17 (24%) patients chose the 6-month/1% risk option, while 55 (76%) chose the 1-month/2% risk option. The median MAWT was 2 months; scores ranged from 1 to 12 months (with two outliers). Many perceived high cumulative risks of myocardial infarction if waiting for 1 (upper quartile, > or = 1.45%) or 6 (upper quartile, > or = 10%) months. However, MAWT scores were related only to expected waiting time (r = 0.47; P < 0.0001). Most patients reject waiting 6 months for elective CABG, even if offered along with a halving in surgical mortality (from 2% to 1%). Intolerance for further delay seems to be determined primarily by patients' attachment to their scheduled surgical dates. Many also have severely inflated perceptions of their risk of myocardial infarction in the queue. These results suggest a need for interventions to modify patients' inaccurate risk perceptions, particularly if a scheduled surgical date must be deferred.

Disparities of Potential Gains in Life Expectancy Development between the Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic.

PubMed

Vagašová, Tatiana; Gavurová, Beáta

2017-12-01

The purpose of this paper is to determine how many years a person could be expected to live if a specific cause of death was eliminated, and to compare potential gains in life expectancy (PGLEs) between Slovakia (SVK) and the Czech Republic (CZE). PGLEs were computed from mortality reports (1996-2013) for deaths from the main groups of chronic diseases, namely ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular diseases (CVD), cancer (CA), diabetes mellitus (DM), and chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) for the Slovak and Czech populations in five-year age groups. Country comparative analysis was conducted by constructing rate ratios of PGLEs. In 2013, life expectancy at birth for the Slovak and Czech populations was 76.5 and 78.3 years. Overall trends of standardised mortality rates of chronic diseases roughly paralleled the PGLEs trend. During 1996-2013, SVK reported the highest PGLEs of IHD at an average of 4.54 years, compared to PGLEs of CA reaching a value of 3.61 years in CZE. The PGLEs of IHD showed the largest gap between SVK and CZE, with an average of 1.65 higher values in SVK. With the elimination of CVD as the third most influential disease in both countries, PGLEs decreased from 1.65 to 0.93 years in CZE; a negligible drop from 1.13 to 1.05 was recorded in SVK. The lowest impacts on life expectancy were recorded in DM and CRD. However, since 2005 these trends have deteriorated in CZE. In 2013, IHD had a similar impact on life expectancy in all age groups in SVK and a decreasing impact among 50-54 year olds in CZE. Similarly to SVK, people in CZE aged 45-49 could gain 0.94 years in LE after CVD elimination, which is nearly the same as at birth. The higher the life expectancy after elimination of the cause of death is, the higher the impact of the disease on life expectancy. Health prevention programs should be mainly aimed at CA mortality in CZE, while the highest burden of IHD is seen in SVK. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017.

Physician losses from Medicare and Medicaid discounts: How real are they?

PubMed Central

Cromwell, Jerry; Burstein, Philip

1985-01-01

Physicians' claims that extensive Medicare and Medicaid fee discounting imposes an inequitable burden on them are examined using survey data from the Health Care Financing Administration on 5,000 primary care physicians. A definite fee hierarchy is documented, with the physician's usual charge at the top and Medicare and Medicaid allowables at the bottom. Under usual, customary, and reasonable methods, physicians can use fees to maximize payment, and insurer attempts to control fees result in both sides participating in a revenue maximization-expenditure control game. Raising Medicare and Medicaid allowables to the physician's usual fee is shown to result in large windfall gains that are unnecessary and unjustified in terms of work effort, human capital investment, or eliciting an adequate supply of practitioners. PMID:10311339

The choline requirement of broiler chicks during the seventh week of life.

PubMed

Molitoris, B A; Baker, D H

1976-01-01

Male crossbred chicks were used to quantify the choline requirement and choline-sparing value of methionine and betaine for broiler chicks during the seventh week of life. The sulfur amino acid (SAA) requirement of male and female chicks was also determined. In all assays a crystalline amino acid diet containing 14.9% protein equivalent and 3400 kcal. M.E./kg, was employed. Increasing increments (0.08%) of SAA (equal mixture of DL-methionine and L-cystine) were fed from 0.38 to 0.70% of the diet. Least squares analysis indicated SAA requirements for maximal weight gain of 0.61 and 0.62% of the diet for males and females, respectively. The choline requirement was determined by feeding six levels of choline in the presence of 0.62% SAA. Gain but not gain/feed responded linearly to choline addition. Least squares analysis of gain indicated a dietary choline requirement of 358 p.p.m. of 30.6 mg./day. The choline-replacement value of methionine and betaine was found to be minimal.

Method of steering the gain of a multiple antenna global positioning system receiver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Alan G.; Hermann, Bruce R.

1992-06-01

A method for steering the gain of a multiple antenna Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver toward a plurality of a GPS satellites simultaneously is provided. The GPS signals of a known wavelength are processed digitally for a particular instant in time. A range difference or propagation delay between each antenna for GPS signals received from each satellite is first resolved. The range difference consists of a fractional wavelength difference and an integer wavelength difference. The fractional wavelength difference is determined by each antenna's tracking loop. The integer wavelength difference is based upon the known wavelength and separation between each antenna with respect to each satellite position. The range difference is then used to digitally delay the GPS signals at each antenna with respect to a reference antenna. The signal at the reference antenna is then summed with the digitally delayed signals to generate a composite antenna gain. The method searches for the correct number of integer wavelengths to maximize the composite gain. The range differences are also used to determine the attitude of the array.

Sprint interval training (SIT) substantially reduces depressive symptoms in major depressive disorder (MDD): A randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Minghetti, Alice; Faude, Oliver; Hanssen, Henner; Zahner, Lukas; Gerber, Markus; Donath, Lars

2018-07-01

Continuous aerobic exercise training (CAT) is considered a complementary treatment option in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). Intermittent exercise training protocols, such as sprint interval training (SIT) have gained increasing popularity, but no studies on depressive symptoms following SIT in patients with MDD are available. Fifty-nine in-patients with MDD were randomly assigned to a SIT or CAT group. Medication was counterbalanced in both intervention arms. Both intervention groups received 3 weekly training sessions for 4-weeks (12 sessions in total). SIT comprised 25 bouts of 30 seconds at 80% of maximal power, whereas CAT consisted of 20 minutes of physical activity at 60% of maximal power. The training protocols were isocalorically designed. Maximal bicycle ergometer exercise testing yielded maximal and submaximal physical fitness parameters. The Beck-Depression-Inventory-II (BDI-II) was filled out by the patients before and after the intervention period. BDI-II scores substantially decreased in both groups with an effect size pointing towards a large effect (p < 0.001, η p ² = 0.70) while submaximal (0.07 < d < 0.89) and maximal (0.05 < d < 0.85) fitness variables improved in both groups. Short-term SIT leads to similar results as CAT in patients with MDD and can be regarded as a time-efficient and promising exercise-based treatment strategy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of chronobiology on neuropathic pain treatment.

PubMed

Gilron, Ian

2016-01-01

Inflammatory pain exhibits circadian rhythmicity. Recently, a distinct diurnal pattern has been described for peripheral neuropathic conditions. This diurnal variation has several implications: advancing understanding of chronobiology may facilitate identification of new and improved treatments; developing pain-contingent strategies that maximize treatment at times of the day associated with highest pain intensity may provide optimal pain relief as well as minimize treatment-related adverse effects (e.g., daytime cognitive dysfunction); and consideration of the impact of chronobiology on pain measurement may lead to improvements in analgesic study design that will maximize assay sensitivity of clinical trials. Recent and ongoing chronobiology studies are thus expected to advance knowledge and treatment of neuropathic pain.

What Is "Social Capital" and How Can Vocational Education and Training Help Develop It? Conference Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Priest, Suellen

2009-01-01

Recent research in the vocational education and training (VET) sector shows that students are gaining a range of benefits from their studies, beyond expected course outcomes. Students are developing new networks, and gaining confidence and self esteem through the respect received from their teachers and classmates. For some students, these…

Operation of MRO's High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE): Maximizing Science Participation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eliason, E.; Hansen, C. J.; McEwen, A.; Delamere, W. A.; Bridges, N.; Grant, J.; Gulich, V.; Herkenhoff, K.; Keszthelyi, L.; Kirk, R.

2003-01-01

Science return from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) will be optimized by maximizing science participation in the experiment. MRO is expected to arrive at Mars in March 2006, and the primary science phase begins near the end of 2006 after aerobraking (6 months) and a transition phase. The primary science phase lasts for almost 2 Earth years, followed by a 2-year relay phase in which science observations by MRO are expected to continue. We expect to acquire approx. 10,000 images with HiRISE over the course of MRO's two earth-year mission. HiRISE can acquire images with a ground sampling dimension of as little as 30 cm (from a typical altitude of 300 km), in up to 3 colors, and many targets will be re-imaged for stereo. With such high spatial resolution, the percent coverage of Mars will be very limited in spite of the relatively high data rate of MRO (approx. 10x greater than MGS or Odyssey). We expect to cover approx. 1% of Mars at approx. 1m/pixel or better, approx. 0.1% at full resolution, and approx. 0.05% in color or in stereo. Therefore, the placement of each HiRISE image must be carefully considered in order to maximize the scientific return from MRO. We believe that every observation should be the result of a mini research project based on pre-existing datasets. During operations, we will need a large database of carefully researched 'suggested' observations to select from. The HiRISE team is dedicated to involving the broad Mars community in creating this database, to the fullest degree that is both practical and legal. The philosophy of the team and the design of the ground data system are geared to enabling community involvement. A key aspect of this is that image data will be made available to the planetary community for science analysis as quickly as possible to encourage feedback and new ideas for targets.

Interindividual variation in thermal sensitivity of maximal sprint speed, thermal behavior, and resting metabolic rate in a lizard.

PubMed

Artacho, Paulina; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Le Galliard, Jean-François

2013-01-01

Studies of the relationship of performance and behavioral traits with environmental factors have tended to neglect interindividual variation even though quantification of this variation is fundamental to understanding how phenotypic traits can evolve. In ectotherms, functional integration of locomotor performance, thermal behavior, and energy metabolism is of special interest because of the potential for coadaptation among these traits. For this reason, we analyzed interindividual variation, covariation, and repeatability of the thermal sensitivity of maximal sprint speed, preferred body temperature, thermal precision, and resting metabolic rate measured in ca. 200 common lizards (Zootoca vivipara) that varied by sex, age, and body size. We found significant interindividual variation in selected body temperatures and in the thermal performance curve of maximal sprint speed for both the intercept (expected trait value at the average temperature) and the slope (measure of thermal sensitivity). Interindividual differences in maximal sprint speed across temperatures, preferred body temperature, and thermal precision were significantly repeatable. A positive relationship existed between preferred body temperature and thermal precision, implying that individuals selecting higher temperatures were more precise. The resting metabolic rate was highly variable but was not related to thermal sensitivity of maximal sprint speed or thermal behavior. Thus, locomotor performance, thermal behavior, and energy metabolism were not directly functionally linked in the common lizard.

Using return on investment to maximize conservation effectiveness in Argentine grasslands

PubMed Central

Murdoch, William; Ranganathan, Jai; Polasky, Stephen; Regetz, James

2010-01-01

The rapid global loss of natural habitats and biodiversity, and limited resources, place a premium on maximizing the expected benefits of conservation actions. The scarcity of information on the fine-grained distribution of species of conservation concern, on risks of loss, and on costs of conservation actions, especially in developing countries, makes efficient conservation difficult. The distribution of ecosystem types (unique ecological communities) is typically better known than species and arguably better represents the entirety of biodiversity than do well-known taxa, so we use conserving the diversity of ecosystem types as our conservation goal. We define conservation benefit to include risk of conversion, spatial effects that reward clumping of habitat, and diminishing returns to investment in any one ecosystem type. Using Argentine grasslands as an example, we compare three strategies: protecting the cheapest land (“minimize cost”), maximizing conservation benefit regardless of cost (“maximize benefit”), and maximizing conservation benefit per dollar (“return on investment”). We first show that the widely endorsed goal of saving some percentage (typically 10%) of a country or habitat type, although it may inspire conservation, is a poor operational goal. It either leads to the accumulation of areas with low conservation benefit or requires infeasibly large sums of money, and it distracts from the real problem: maximizing conservation benefit given limited resources. Second, given realistic budgets, return on investment is superior to the other conservation strategies. Surprisingly, however, over a wide range of budgets, minimizing cost provides more conservation benefit than does the maximize-benefit strategy. PMID:21098281

Optimization of detectors for the ILC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suehara, Taikan; ILD Group; SID Group

2016-04-01

International Linear Collider (ILC) is a next-generation e+e- linear collider to explore Higgs, Beyond-Standard-Models, top and electroweak particles with great precision. We are optimizing our two detectors, International Large Detector (ILD) and Silicon Detector (SiD) to maximize the physics reach expected in ILC with reasonable detector cost and good reliability. The optimization study on vertex detectors, main trackers and calorimeters is underway. We aim to conclude the optimization to establish final designs in a few years, to finish detector TDR and proposal in reply to expected ;green sign; of the ILC project.

Increasing Efficiency by Maximizing Electrical Output

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-27

in a few limited areas, one being a geothermal flash plant at Naval Air Weapons Station China Lake. But, there are few other heat to electricity...generation sources (but, closest to geothermal because of the lack of combustion and the maintenance issues involved with combustion). [11] Clearly, a...of Energy Resources Technology, March 2009, Vol. 131 [4] “The Chena Hot Springs 400kW Geothermal Power Plant: Experience Gained During the First

Magnetic induced heating of nanoparticle solutions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murph, S. Hunyadi; Brown, M.; Coopersmith, K.

2016-12-02

Magnetic induced heating of nanoparticles (NP) provides a useful advantage for many energy transfer applications. This study aims to gain an understanding of the key parameters responsible for maximizing the energy transfer leading to nanoparticle heating through the use of simulations and experimental results. It was found that magnetic field strength, NP concentration, NP composition, and coil size can be controlled to generate accurate temperature profiles in NP aqueous solutions.

MOCHA - Multi-Study Ocean Acoustics Human Effects Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

understanding of the response of marine mammals to navy sonar and other acoustic stimuli, by maximizing the information gain from Behavioral Response Studies...focussed on a functional/taxonomic group of marine mammals (deep divers, other odontocetes, pilot whales and baleen whales). We began with deep divers...Controlled Exposure Experiments component of the Marine Mammals and Biology Program, and it will also address broader commitments of the Navy for

How to write a medical CV.

PubMed

Agha, Riaz; Whitehurst, Katharine; Jafree, Daniyal; Devabalan, Yadsan; Koshy, Kiron; Gundogan, Buket

2017-07-01

A medical curriculum vitae remains an important document that has 2 main roles: to distinguish candidates applying for various positions, whether that be jobs, posts, grants and it provides a means of keeping an up-to-date record of all your achievements and skills gained thus far. This article provides detailed guidance on how to structure an effective curriculum vitae to maximize your chances of success when applying for these positions.

How to write a medical CV

PubMed Central

Agha, Riaz; Whitehurst, Katharine; Jafree, Daniyal; Devabalan, Yadsan; Koshy, Kiron

2017-01-01

A medical curriculum vitae remains an important document that has 2 main roles: to distinguish candidates applying for various positions, whether that be jobs, posts, grants and it provides a means of keeping an up-to-date record of all your achievements and skills gained thus far. This article provides detailed guidance on how to structure an effective curriculum vitae to maximize your chances of success when applying for these positions. PMID:29177224

Continuous Competition as an Approach to Maximize Performance

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

for an entire program life-cycle often endows the winner with a very strong monopolistic power that lasts for decades. This paper describes...entrenched practice of one-time competition for an entire program life-cycle often endows the winner with a very strong monopolistic power that lasts for...contract award. Instead, the winning contractor often establishes monopolistic advantages and gains “vendor lock.” As a result, programs can experience

Health Care Reform for Children with Public Coverage: How Can Policymakers Maximize Gains and Prevent Harm? Timely Analysis of Immediate Health Policy Issues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kenney, Genevieve M.; Dorn, Stan

2009-01-01

Moving toward universal coverage has the potential to increase access to care and improve the health and well-being of uninsured children and adults. The effects of health care reform on the more than 25 million children who currently have coverage under Medicaid or the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) are less clear. Increased parental…

Determining the maximal capacity of a combined-cycle plant operating with afterburning of fuel in the gas conduit upstream of the heat-recovery boiler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borovkov, V. M.; Osmanova, N. M.

2011-01-01

The effect gained from afterburning of fuel in the gas conduit upstream of the heat-recovery boiler used as part of a PGU-450T combined-cycle plant is considered. The results obtained from calculations of the electric and thermal power outputs produced by the combined-cycle plant equipped with an afterburning chamber are presented.

Next-Generation in Situ Hybridization Chain Reaction: Higher Gain, Lower Cost, Greater Durability

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Hybridization chain reaction (HCR) provides multiplexed, isothermal, enzyme-free, molecular signal amplification in diverse settings. Within intact vertebrate embryos, where signal-to-background is at a premium, HCR in situ amplification enables simultaneous mapping of multiple target mRNAs, addressing a longstanding challenge in the biological sciences. With this approach, RNA probes complementary to mRNA targets trigger chain reactions in which metastable fluorophore-labeled RNA hairpins self-assemble into tethered fluorescent amplification polymers. The properties of HCR lead to straightforward multiplexing, deep sample penetration, high signal-to-background, and sharp subcellular signal localization within fixed whole-mount zebrafish embryos, a standard model system for the study of vertebrate development. However, RNA reagents are expensive and vulnerable to enzymatic degradation. Moreover, the stringent hybridization conditions used to destabilize nonspecific hairpin binding also reduce the energetic driving force for HCR polymerization, creating a trade-off between minimization of background and maximization of signal. Here, we eliminate this trade-off by demonstrating that low background levels can be achieved using permissive in situ amplification conditions (0% formamide, room temperature) and engineer next-generation DNA HCR amplifiers that maximize the free energy benefit per polymerization step while preserving the kinetic trapping property that underlies conditional polymerization, dramatically increasing signal gain, reducing reagent cost, and improving reagent durability. PMID:24712299

An SSVEP-Based Brain-Computer Interface for Text Spelling With Adaptive Queries That Maximize Information Gain Rates.

PubMed

Akce, Abdullah; Norton, James J S; Bretl, Timothy

2015-09-01

This paper presents a brain-computer interface for text entry using steady-state visually evoked potentials (SSVEP). Like other SSVEP-based spellers, ours identifies the desired input character by posing questions (or queries) to users through a visual interface. Each query defines a mapping from possible characters to steady-state stimuli. The user responds by attending to one of these stimuli. Unlike other SSVEP-based spellers, ours chooses from a much larger pool of possible queries-on the order of ten thousand instead of ten. The larger query pool allows our speller to adapt more effectively to the inherent structure of what is being typed and to the input performance of the user, both of which make certain queries provide more information than others. In particular, our speller chooses queries from this pool that maximize the amount of information to be received per unit of time, a measure of mutual information that we call information gain rate. To validate our interface, we compared it with two other state-of-the-art SSVEP-based spellers, which were re-implemented to use the same input mechanism. Results showed that our interface, with the larger query pool, allowed users to spell multiple-word texts nearly twice as fast as they could with the compared spellers.

Understanding the impact of socioeconomic differences in breast cancer survival in England and Wales: avoidable deaths and potential gain in expectation of life.

PubMed

Rutherford, M J; Andersson, T M-L; Møller, H; Lambert, P C

2015-02-01

Socioeconomic differences in cancer patient survival are known to exist for women diagnosed with breast cancer. Standard metrics tend not to place great emphasis on evaluating the actual impact of these differences. We used two alternative, but related, methods of reporting the impact of socioeconomic differences for breast cancer patients in England and Wales. We calculated the average gain in life years for each patient should socioeconomic differences in relative survival be removed and show how this is related to the number of all-cause deaths that could be postponed by removing socioeconomic differences in cancer patient survival. Our results indicate that deprivation differences for women with breast cancer exist and result in women from more deprived areas losing a larger proportion of their life due to a diagnosis of cancer. We also estimate that on average 1.1 years could be gained for a 60 year old breast cancer patient in the most deprived group by improving their relative survival to match the least deprived group. However, our results also show that deprivation differences in general survival have a large impact on life expectancy; showing that over two-thirds of the gap in differential life expectancy is explained by differences in other-cause survival. Socioeconomic differences in relative survival have an impact on life expectancy for patients and result in higher early mortality for more deprived patients. However, differences in general survival across socioeconomic groups explain a larger proportion of the deprivation gap in life expectancy for breast cancer patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Guide to the Table

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Occupational Outlook Quarterly, 2010

2010-01-01

This article presents a table that provides a snapshot of how employment is expected to change in 289 occupations. For each occupation, it shows estimated employment in 2008, the projected numeric change in employment (that is, how many jobs are expected to be gained or lost) over the 2008-18 decade, and the projected percent change in employment…

Occupational Expectations--Nature, Correlates, and Utilization in Occupational Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hofstrand, Richard K.; Phipps, Lloyd J.

To gain greatest meaning and satisfaction from their work activities, persons should be able to more accurately identify and define their feelings, attitudes, and values related to the world of work. An expanded and enhanced understanding of occupational expectations on the part of career counselors would help in working with youth and adults who…

Achieving and Sustaining New Knowledge Development in High-Expectation Start-Ups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matricano, Diego

2010-01-01

In markets characterized by strong competition, new knowledge and new knowledge development are generally recognized as the key means for an enterprise to gain competitive advantage. This knowledge-based competitive advantage is critical for all commercial ventures, but is especially so for high-expectation start-ups (technology-based ventures…

United States housing, third quarter 2013

Treesearch

Delton Alderman

2017-01-01

The U.S. housing construction market’s third quarter was subdued, as all sectors moderated or declined. Once again, consensus expectations were for aggregate housing market gains, and these expectations were not realized. Overall starts, housing under construction, and completion data indicated quarterly improvement. Viewed from a recent his¬torical context, all...

Effects of overweight and leisure-time activities on aerobic fitness in urban and rural adolescents.

PubMed

Albarwani, Sulayma; Al-Hashmi, Khamis; Al-Abri, Mohammed; Jaju, Deepali; Hassan, Mohammed O

2009-08-01

The aim of this research was to study the effects of overweight and leisure-time activities on maximal aerobic capacity (VO(2)max) in urban and rural Omani adolescents. A total of 529 (245 males, 284 females) adolescents, aged 15-16 years were randomly selected from segregated urban and rural schools. Maximal aerobic capacity was estimated using the multistage 20-meter shuttle-run test. The body mass index (BMI) of urban boys and girls was significantly higher than that of rural boys and girls. Urban boys and girls spent significantly less weekly hours on sports activities and significantly more weekly hours on TV/computer games than their rural counterpart. Urban boys and girls achieved significantly less VO(2)max than rural boys and girls (44.2 and 33.0 vs. 48.3 and 38.6 mL/kg/min, respectively). Maximal aerobic capacity was negatively correlated with BMI in urban boys. Overweight and inactivity had significant negative effects on cardiorespiratory fitness in urban boys and girls as compared to their rural counterparts. Weight gain in adolescence requires early intervention.

Sleep deprivation alters choice strategy without altering uncertainty or loss aversion preferences

PubMed Central

Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A.; Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A.; Liu, Jean C. J.

2015-01-01

Sleep deprivation alters decision making; however, it is unclear what specific cognitive processes are modified to drive altered choices. In this manuscript, we examined how one night of total sleep deprivation (TSD) alters economic decision making. We specifically examined changes in uncertainty preferences dissociably from changes in the strategy with which participants engage with presented choice information. With high test-retest reliability, we show that TSD does not alter uncertainty preferences or loss aversion. Rather, TSD alters the information the participants rely upon to make their choices. Utilizing a choice strategy metric which contrasts the influence of maximizing and satisficing information on choice behavior, we find that TSD alters the relative reliance on maximizing information and satisficing information, in the gains domain. This alteration is the result of participants both decreasing their reliance on cognitively-complex maximizing information and a concomitant increase in the use of readily-available satisficing information. TSD did not result in a decrease in overall information use in either domain. These results show that sleep deprivation alters decision making by altering the informational strategies that participants employ, without altering their preferences. PMID:26500479

Cluster-based analysis improves predictive validity of spike-triggered receptive field estimates

PubMed Central

Malone, Brian J.

2017-01-01

Spectrotemporal receptive field (STRF) characterization is a central goal of auditory physiology. STRFs are often approximated by the spike-triggered average (STA), which reflects the average stimulus preceding a spike. In many cases, the raw STA is subjected to a threshold defined by gain values expected by chance. However, such correction methods have not been universally adopted, and the consequences of specific gain-thresholding approaches have not been investigated systematically. Here, we evaluate two classes of statistical correction techniques, using the resulting STRF estimates to predict responses to a novel validation stimulus. The first, more traditional technique eliminated STRF pixels (time-frequency bins) with gain values expected by chance. This correction method yielded significant increases in prediction accuracy, including when the threshold setting was optimized for each unit. The second technique was a two-step thresholding procedure wherein clusters of contiguous pixels surviving an initial gain threshold were then subjected to a cluster mass threshold based on summed pixel values. This approach significantly improved upon even the best gain-thresholding techniques. Additional analyses suggested that allowing threshold settings to vary independently for excitatory and inhibitory subfields of the STRF resulted in only marginal additional gains, at best. In summary, augmenting reverse correlation techniques with principled statistical correction choices increased prediction accuracy by over 80% for multi-unit STRFs and by over 40% for single-unit STRFs, furthering the interpretational relevance of the recovered spectrotemporal filters for auditory systems analysis. PMID:28877194

Creep feeding nursing beef calves.

PubMed

Lardy, Gregory P; Maddock, Travis D

2007-03-01

Creep feeding can be used to increase calf weaning weights. However, the gain efficiency of free-choice, energy-based creep feeds is relatively poor. Generally, limit-feeding, high-protein creep feeds are more efficient, and gains may be similar to those produced by creep feeds offered free choice. Creep feeding can increase total organic matter intake and improve the overall energy status of the animal. Creep-fed calves tend to acclimate to the feedlot more smoothly than unsupplemented calves. Furthermore, provision of a high-starch creep feed may have a positive influence on subsequent carcass quality traits. Creep feeding can be applied to numerous environmental situations to maximize calf performance; however, beef cattle producers should consider their individual situations carefully before making the decision to creep feed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, H.; Schires, K.; Grillot, F.

Non-degenerate four-wave mixing in an InAs/InP quantum dot Fabry–Perot laser is investigated with an optical injection-locking scheme. Wavelength conversion is obtained for frequency detunings ranging from +2.5 THz to −3.5 THz. The normalized conversion efficiency is maintained above −40 dB between −1.5 and +0.5 THz with an optical signal-to-noise ratio above 20 dB and a maximal third-order nonlinear susceptibility normalized to material gain of 2 × 10{sup −19} m{sup 3}/V{sup 2}. In addition, we show that injection-locking at different positions in the gain spectrum has an impact on the nonlinear conversion process and the symmetry between up- and down- converted signals.

Efficient ultraviolet photorefraction in LiNbO3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jungen, R.; Angelow, G.; Laeri, F.; Grabmaier, C.

1992-07-01

A nominally undoped LiNbO3 crystal with a slightly broadened absorption edge is used to study beam coupling effects in the UV at 351 nm. At this wavelength the crystal exhibits a diffusion-dominated charge transport mechanism, which allows steady state beam amplification of up to 700 times, comparable to BaTiO3 in the visible. The used crystal material was characterized by an absorption coefficient α=2.68 cm-1 at 351 nm and a maximal gain coefficient Г=13.94 cm-1. This high gain value in the UV can be attributed to a hole diffusion-dominated charge transport mechanism together with a low bulk photovoltaic effect. We measured photovoltaic fields of the order of 550 V/cm.

Characterization of x-ray framing cameras for the National Ignition Facility using single photon pulse height analysis.

PubMed

Holder, J P; Benedetti, L R; Bradley, D K

2016-11-01

Single hit pulse height analysis is applied to National Ignition Facility x-ray framing cameras to quantify gain and gain variation in a single micro-channel plate-based instrument. This method allows the separation of gain from detectability in these photon-detecting devices. While pulse heights measured by standard-DC calibration methods follow the expected exponential distribution at the limit of a compound-Poisson process, gain-gated pulse heights follow a more complex distribution that may be approximated as a weighted sum of a few exponentials. We can reproduce this behavior with a simple statistical-sampling model.

[Deaths and life expectancy losses attributable to diet high in sodium in China].

PubMed

Liu, S W; Cai, Y; Zeng, X Y; Yin, P; Qi, J L; Liu, Y N; Liu, J M; Zhao, Z P; Zhang, M; Wang, L M; Wang, L J; Xue, M; Zhou, M G

2017-08-10

Objective: To quantitatively estimate the deaths and life expectancy losses attributable to diet high in sodium in China, and examine the gains and shifts under different control scenarios of sodium consumption. Methods: Based on data from the cause-of-death through the National Mortality Surveillance System, and 24 hours urinary sodium values from Global Burden of Disease study on Chinese's estimates, population attributable fractions with the framework of comparative risk assessment were used to analyze the deaths and life expectancy losses due to diet high in sodium. The same methods were followed to examine the gains and shifts under different control scenarios of sodium consumption. Results: In 2013, 1 430 (940 for men and 490 for women) thousand deaths were attributable to diet high in sodium, accounting for 15.6% (17.4% for men and 13.0% for women) of all-cause deaths in China, which causing 2.17 (2.49 for men and 1.71 for women) years of life expectancy loss. Diet with high sodium in 2013 caused 1 200, 50 and 180 thousand deaths from cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease and stomach cancer respectively, accounting for 31.5%, 30.8% and 64.8% of those specific causes. Comparing to the baseline in 2013, if the targets of 10% decrease of sodium consumption by 2020 and 15% by 2030 for Chinese chronic disease prevention and treatment planning, and 30% decrease by 2030 for WHO non-communicable disease monitoring framework are achieved, 220, 340 and 730 thousand deaths will be averted, which may gain 0.30, 0.45 and 0.95 years of life expectancy, respectively. Conclusions: As one of the leading risk factors, diet high in sodium had caused heavy burden of disease from cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease and stomach cancer on Chinese residents. Intervention programs on sodium-reduction are urgently needed in China and related cost-effectiveness is highly expected.

Reliability and cost: A sensitivity analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suich, Ronald C.; Patterson, Richard L.

1991-01-01

In the design phase of a system, how a design engineer or manager choose between a subsystem with .990 reliability and a more costly subsystem with .995 reliability is examined, along with the justification of the increased cost. High reliability is not necessarily an end in itself but may be desirable in order to reduce the expected cost due to subsystem failure. However, this may not be the wisest use of funds since the expected cost due to subsystem failure is not the only cost involved. The subsystem itself may be very costly. The cost of the subsystem nor the expected cost due to subsystem failure should not be considered separately but the total of the two costs should be maximized, i.e., the total of the cost of the subsystem plus the expected cost due to subsystem failure.

48 CFR 9904.412-60.1 - Illustrations-CAS Pension Harmonization Rule.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... by segment or aggregation of segments. The actuarial gain and loss recognition of changes between... recognition of the asset gain or loss, which is the difference between the expected income, based on the...,100,000 $14,225,000 1 Normal Cost 910,700 89,100 821,600 1 Expense Load on Normal Cost 1, 2 Note 1...

48 CFR 9904.412-60.1 - Illustrations-CAS Pension Harmonization Rule.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... by segment or aggregation of segments. The actuarial gain and loss recognition of changes between... recognition of the asset gain or loss, which is the difference between the expected income, based on the...,100,000 $14,225,000 1 Normal Cost 910,700 89,100 821,600 1 Expense Load on Normal Cost 1, 2 Note 1...

48 CFR 9904.412-60.1 - Illustrations-CAS Pension Harmonization Rule.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... by segment or aggregation of segments. The actuarial gain and loss recognition of changes between... recognition of the asset gain or loss, which is the difference between the expected income, based on the...,100,000 $14,225,000 1 Normal Cost 910,700 89,100 821,600 1 Expense Load on Normal Cost 1, 2 Note 1...

Sleep-Dependent Consolidation of Procedural Motor Memories in Children and Adults: The Pre-Sleep Level of Performance Matters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilhelm, Ines; Metzkow-Meszaros, Maila; Knapp, Susanne; Born, Jan

2012-01-01

In striking contrast to adults, in children sleep following training a motor task did not induce the expected (offline) gain in motor skill performance in previous studies. Children normally perform at distinctly lower levels than adults. Moreover, evidence in adults suggests that sleep dependent offline gains in skill essentially depend on the…

Maximizing Your Grant Development: A Guide for CEOs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snyder, Thomas

1993-01-01

Since most private and public sources of external funding generally expect increased effort and accountability, Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) at two-year colleges must inform faculty and staff that if they do not expend extra effort their college will not receive significant grants. The CEO must also work with the college's professional…

A Prelude to Strategic Management of an Online Enterprise

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pan, Cheng-Chang; Sivo, Stephen A.; Goldsmith, Clair

2016-01-01

Strategic management is expected to allow an organization to maximize given constraints and optimize limited resources in an effort to create a competitive advantage that leads to better results. For both for-profit and non-profit organizations, such strategic thinking helps the management make informed decisions and sustain long-term planning. To…

76 FR 79612 - Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act Provisions; Fisheries of the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-22

... state-operated permit banks for the purpose of maximizing the fishing opportunities made available by... activity to regain their DAS for that trip, providing another opportunity to profit from the DAS that would... entities. Further, no reductions in profit are expected for any small entities, so the profitability...

Smooth Transitions: Helping Students with Autism Spectrum Disorder Navigate the School Day

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hume, Kara; Sreckovic, Melissa; Snyder, Kate; Carnahan, Christina R.

2014-01-01

In school, students are expected to navigate different types of transitions every day, including those between instructors, subjects, and instructional formats, as well as classrooms. Despite the routines that many teachers develop to facilitate efficient transitions and maximize instructional time, many learners with ASD continue to struggle with…

3D image reconstruction algorithms for cryo-electron-microscopy images of virus particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doerschuk, Peter C.; Johnson, John E.

2000-11-01

A statistical model for the object and the complete image formation process in cryo electron microscopy of viruses is presented. Using this model, maximum likelihood reconstructions of the 3D structure of viruses are computed using the expectation maximization algorithm and an example based on Cowpea mosaic virus is provided.

A Benefit-Maximization Solution to Our Faculty Promotion and Tenure Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barat, Somjit; Harvey, Hanafiah

2015-01-01

Tenure-track/tenured faculty at higher education institutions are expected to teach, conduct research and provide service as part of their promotion and tenure process, the relative importance of each component varying with the position and/or the university. However, based on the author's personal experience, feedback received from several…

"At Least One" Way to Add Value to Conferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Warren J.

2005-01-01

In "EDUCAUSE Quarterly," Volume 25, Number 3, 2002, Joan Getman and Nikki Reynolds published an excellent article about getting the most from a conference. They listed 10 strategies that a conference attendee could use to maximize the conference's yield in information and motivation: (1) Plan ahead; (2) Set realistic expectations; (3) Use e-mail…

Team Members' Perceptions of Online Teamwork Learning Experiences and Building Teamwork Trust: A Qualitative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tseng, Hung Wei; Yeh, Hsin-Te

2013-01-01

Teamwork factors can facilitate team members, committing themselves to the purposes of maximizing their own and others' contributions and successes. It is important for online instructors to comprehend students' expectations on learning collaboratively. The aims of this study were to investigate online collaborative learning experiences and to…

A Probability Based Framework for Testing the Missing Data Mechanism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Johnny Cheng-Han

2013-01-01

Many methods exist for imputing missing data but fewer methods have been proposed to test the missing data mechanism. Little (1988) introduced a multivariate chi-square test for the missing completely at random data mechanism (MCAR) that compares observed means for each pattern with expectation-maximization (EM) estimated means. As an alternative,…

Effects of Missing Data Methods in Structural Equation Modeling with Nonnormal Longitudinal Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shin, Tacksoo; Davison, Mark L.; Long, Jeffrey D.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of missing data techniques in longitudinal studies under diverse conditions. A Monte Carlo simulation examined the performance of 3 missing data methods in latent growth modeling: listwise deletion (LD), maximum likelihood estimation using the expectation and maximization algorithm with a…

78 FR 25862 - Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Final 2013-2015 Spiny Dogfish Fishery Specifications

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-03

... the status quo. The action is expected to maximize the profitability for the spiny dogfish fishery... possible commercial quotas by not making a deduction from the ACL accounting for management uncertainty...) in 2015; however, not accounting for management uncertainty would have increased the risk of...

Global Convergence of the EM Algorithm for Unconstrained Latent Variable Models with Categorical Indicators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weissman, Alexander

2013-01-01

Convergence of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to a global optimum of the marginal log likelihood function for unconstrained latent variable models with categorical indicators is presented. The sufficient conditions under which global convergence of the EM algorithm is attainable are provided in an information-theoretic context by…

Optimization-Based Model Fitting for Latent Class and Latent Profile Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Guan-Hua; Wang, Su-Mei; Hsu, Chung-Chu

2011-01-01

Statisticians typically estimate the parameters of latent class and latent profile models using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. This paper proposes an alternative two-stage approach to model fitting. The first stage uses the modified k-means and hierarchical clustering algorithms to identify the latent classes that best satisfy the…

[A comparison of the causes of adult mortality and its effects on life-expectancy across the regions of Colombia].

PubMed

López, Elizabeth; Arce, Patricia

2008-09-01

When determining some populations state of health, an understanding of the causes of mortality is essential. Changes in mortality due to causes was established to determine their contribution to the life-expectancy by gender and region of the Colombian population aged 15 to 74, between 1985 and 1999, by gender and region. This was a descriptive, retrospective study; the sources of information were records of deaths from 1983 to 2001 and population projections according to Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística. The age selected as a sample population was 15 to 74. Changes in mortality were measured by using Eduardo Arriagas methodology, which is based on calculating temporary life-expectancy, absolute and relative change indices, and how changes in mortality due to cause of death contribute to life-expectancy. The main cause of reduced temporary life-expectancy in both genders was the increase in deaths by suicide, homicide and other violent causes (the reduction was greater for men than women in all regions studied). The greatest positive contribution to longevity was by the reduction in circulatory system diseases and accidents. A minimal gain in temporary life-expectancy was achieved as the positive affect of reduced mortality due to natural causes. This gain was annulled by the negative contributions of increased mortality due to suicide, homicide and other violent avoidable acts.

Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

PubMed

Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

2016-04-01

Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Steganalysis feature improvement using expectation maximization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, Benjamin M.; Peterson, Gilbert L.; Agaian, Sos S.

2007-04-01

Images and data files provide an excellent opportunity for concealing illegal or clandestine material. Currently, there are over 250 different tools which embed data into an image without causing noticeable changes to the image. From a forensics perspective, when a system is confiscated or an image of a system is generated the investigator needs a tool that can scan and accurately identify files suspected of containing malicious information. The identification process is termed the steganalysis problem which focuses on both blind identification, in which only normal images are available for training, and multi-class identification, in which both the clean and stego images at several embedding rates are available for training. In this paper an investigation of a clustering and classification technique (Expectation Maximization with mixture models) is used to determine if a digital image contains hidden information. The steganalysis problem is for both anomaly detection and multi-class detection. The various clusters represent clean images and stego images with between 1% and 10% embedding percentage. Based on the results it is concluded that the EM classification technique is highly suitable for both blind detection and the multi-class problem.

The indexing ambiguity in serial femtosecond crystallography (SFX) resolved using an expectation maximization algorithm.

PubMed

Liu, Haiguang; Spence, John C H

2014-11-01

Crystallographic auto-indexing algorithms provide crystal orientations and unit-cell parameters and assign Miller indices based on the geometric relations between the Bragg peaks observed in diffraction patterns. However, if the Bravais symmetry is higher than the space-group symmetry, there will be multiple indexing options that are geometrically equivalent, and hence many ways to merge diffraction intensities from protein nanocrystals. Structure factor magnitudes from full reflections are required to resolve this ambiguity but only partial reflections are available from each XFEL shot, which must be merged to obtain full reflections from these 'stills'. To resolve this chicken-and-egg problem, an expectation maximization algorithm is described that iteratively constructs a model from the intensities recorded in the diffraction patterns as the indexing ambiguity is being resolved. The reconstructed model is then used to guide the resolution of the indexing ambiguity as feedback for the next iteration. Using both simulated and experimental data collected at an X-ray laser for photosystem I in the P63 space group (which supports a merohedral twinning indexing ambiguity), the method is validated.

Search for maximal flavor violating scalars in same-charge lepton pairs in pp collisions at sqrt[s]=1.96 TeV.

PubMed

Aaltonen, T; Adelman, J; Akimoto, T; Albrow, M G; Alvarez González, B; Amerio, S; Amidei, D; Anastassov, A; Annovi, A; Antos, J; Aoki, M; Apollinari, G; Apresyan, A; Arisawa, T; Artikov, A; Ashmanskas, W; Attal, A; Aurisano, A; Azfar, F; Azzi-Bacchetta, P; Azzurri, P; Bacchetta, N; Badgett, W; Barbaro-Galtieri, A; Barnes, V E; Barnett, B A; Baroiant, S; Bar-Shalom, S; Bartsch, V; Bauer, G; Beauchemin, P-H; Bedeschi, F; Bednar, P; Behari, S; Bellettini, G; Bellinger, J; Belloni, A; Benjamin, D; Beretvas, A; Beringer, J; Berry, T; Bhatti, A; Binkley, M; Bisello, D; Bizjak, I; Blair, R E; Blocker, C; Blumenfeld, B; Bocci, A; Bodek, A; Boisvert, V; Bolla, G; Bolshov, A; Bortoletto, D; Boudreau, J; Boveia, A; Brau, B; Bridgeman, A; Brigliadori, L; Bromberg, C; Brubaker, E; Budagov, J; Budd, H S; Budd, S; Burkett, K; Busetto, G; Bussey, P; Buzatu, A; Byrum, K L; Cabrera, S; Campanelli, M; Campbell, M; Canelli, F; Canepa, A; Carlsmith, D; Carosi, R; Carrillo, S; Carron, S; Casal, B; Casarsa, M; 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2009-01-30

Models of maximal flavor violation (MxFV) in elementary particle physics may contain at least one new scalar SU(2) doublet field Phi(FV)=(eta(0),eta(+)) that couples the first and third generation quarks (q_(1), q_(3)) via a Lagrangian term L(FV)=xi(13)Phi(FV)q(1)q(3). These models have a distinctive signature of same-charge top-quark pairs and evade flavor-changing limits from meson mixing measurements. Data corresponding to 2 fb(-1) collected by the Collider Dectector at Fermilab II detector in pp[over ] collisions at sqrt[s]=1.96 TeV are analyzed for evidence of the MxFV signature. For a neutral scalar eta(0) with m_(eta;(0))=200 GeV/c(2) and coupling xi(13)=1, approximately 11 signal events are expected over a background of 2.1+/-1.8 events. Three events are observed in the data, consistent with background expectations, and limits are set on the coupling xi(13) for m(eta(0)=180-300 GeV/c(2).

Metal-induced streak artifact reduction using iterative reconstruction algorithms in x-ray computed tomography image of the dentoalveolar region.

PubMed

Dong, Jian; Hayakawa, Yoshihiko; Kannenberg, Sven; Kober, Cornelia

2013-02-01

The objective of this study was to reduce metal-induced streak artifact on oral and maxillofacial x-ray computed tomography (CT) images by developing the fast statistical image reconstruction system using iterative reconstruction algorithms. Adjacent CT images often depict similar anatomical structures in thin slices. So, first, images were reconstructed using the same projection data of an artifact-free image. Second, images were processed by the successive iterative restoration method where projection data were generated from reconstructed image in sequence. Besides the maximum likelihood-expectation maximization algorithm, the ordered subset-expectation maximization algorithm (OS-EM) was examined. Also, small region of interest (ROI) setting and reverse processing were applied for improving performance. Both algorithms reduced artifacts instead of slightly decreasing gray levels. The OS-EM and small ROI reduced the processing duration without apparent detriments. Sequential and reverse processing did not show apparent effects. Two alternatives in iterative reconstruction methods were effective for artifact reduction. The OS-EM algorithm and small ROI setting improved the performance. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying effective actions to guide volunteer-based and nationwide conservation efforts for a ground-nesting farmland bird.

PubMed

Santangeli, Andrea; Arroyo, Beatriz; Millon, Alexandre; Bretagnolle, Vincent

2015-08-01

1. Modern farming practices threaten wildlife in different ways, and failure to identify the complexity of multiple threats acting in synergy may result in ineffective management. To protect ground-nesting birds in farmland, monitoring and mitigating impacts of mechanical harvesting is crucial. 2. Here, we use 6 years of data from a nationwide volunteer-based monitoring scheme of the Montagu's harrier, a ground-nesting raptor, in French farmlands. We assess the effectiveness of alternative nest protection measures and map their potential benefit to the species. 3. We show that unprotected nests in cultivated land are strongly negatively affected by harvesting and thus require active management. Further, we show that protection from harvesting alone (e.g. by leaving a small unharvested buffer around the nest) is impaired by post-harvest predation at nests that become highly conspicuous after harvest. Measures that simultaneously protect from harvesting and predation (by adding a fence around the nest) significantly enhance nest productivity. 4. The map of expected gain from nest protection in relation to available volunteers' workforce pinpoints large areas of high expected gain from nest protection that are not matched by equally high workforce availability. This mismatch suggests that the impact of nest protection can be further improved by increasing volunteer efforts in key areas where they are low relative to the expected gain they could have. 5. Synthesis and applications . This study shows that synergistic interplay of multiple factors (e.g. mechanical harvesting and predation) may completely undermine the success of well-intentioned conservation efforts. However, identifying areas where the greatest expected gains can be achieved relative to effort expended can minimize the risk of wasted volunteer actions. Overall, this study underscores the importance of citizen science for collecting large-scale data useful for producing science and ultimately informs large-scale evidence-based conservation actions within an adaptive management framework.

Gain degradation and efficiencies of spiral electron multipliers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Judge, R. J. R.; Palmer, D. A.

1973-01-01

The characteristics of spiral electron multipliers as functions of accumulated counts were investigated. The mean gain of the multipliers showed a steady decline from about 100 million when new, to about one million after 100 billion events when biased in a saturation mode. For prolonged use in a space environment, improved life expectancy might be obtained with a varying bias voltage adjusted to maintain the gain comfortably above a given discrimination level. Pulse-height distributions at various stages of the lifetime and variations of efficiency with energy of detected electrons are presented.

Downgrading and Discounting the Qualifications of Migrant Professionals in England: The Case of Overseas-Trained Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Paul Washington

2008-01-01

Highly trained teachers from across the world come to England expecting to practice their profession. These expectations are dashed however, if their qualifications and work experience, gained in their home countries, are not recognised as legitimate by potential employers and accreditation bodies. This type of social situation is the focus of…