F-8C adaptive flight control extensions. [for maximum likelihood estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stein, G.; Hartmann, G. L.

1977-01-01

An adaptive concept which combines gain-scheduled control laws with explicit maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) identification to provide the scheduling values is described. The MLE algorithm was improved by incorporating attitude data, estimating gust statistics for setting filter gains, and improving parameter tracking during changing flight conditions. A lateral MLE algorithm was designed to improve true air speed and angle of attack estimates during lateral maneuvers. Relationships between the pitch axis sensors inherent in the MLE design were examined and used for sensor failure detection. Design details and simulation performance are presented for each of the three areas investigated.

Application of maximum likelihood methods to laser Thomson scattering measurements of low density plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Washeleski, Robert L.; Meyer, Edmond J. IV; King, Lyon B.

2013-10-15

Laser Thomson scattering (LTS) is an established plasma diagnostic technique that has seen recent application to low density plasmas. It is difficult to perform LTS measurements when the scattered signal is weak as a result of low electron number density, poor optical access to the plasma, or both. Photon counting methods are often implemented in order to perform measurements in these low signal conditions. However, photon counting measurements performed with photo-multiplier tubes are time consuming and multi-photon arrivals are incorrectly recorded. In order to overcome these shortcomings a new data analysis method based on maximum likelihood estimation was developed. Themore » key feature of this new data processing method is the inclusion of non-arrival events in determining the scattered Thomson signal. Maximum likelihood estimation and its application to Thomson scattering at low signal levels is presented and application of the new processing method to LTS measurements performed in the plume of a 2-kW Hall-effect thruster is discussed.« less

Application of maximum likelihood methods to laser Thomson scattering measurements of low density plasmas.

PubMed

Washeleski, Robert L; Meyer, Edmond J; King, Lyon B

2013-10-01

Laser Thomson scattering (LTS) is an established plasma diagnostic technique that has seen recent application to low density plasmas. It is difficult to perform LTS measurements when the scattered signal is weak as a result of low electron number density, poor optical access to the plasma, or both. Photon counting methods are often implemented in order to perform measurements in these low signal conditions. However, photon counting measurements performed with photo-multiplier tubes are time consuming and multi-photon arrivals are incorrectly recorded. In order to overcome these shortcomings a new data analysis method based on maximum likelihood estimation was developed. The key feature of this new data processing method is the inclusion of non-arrival events in determining the scattered Thomson signal. Maximum likelihood estimation and its application to Thomson scattering at low signal levels is presented and application of the new processing method to LTS measurements performed in the plume of a 2-kW Hall-effect thruster is discussed.

Maximum likelihood conjoint measurement of lightness and chroma.

PubMed

Rogers, Marie; Knoblauch, Kenneth; Franklin, Anna

2016-03-01

Color varies along dimensions of lightness, hue, and chroma. We used maximum likelihood conjoint measurement to investigate how lightness and chroma influence color judgments. Observers judged lightness and chroma of stimuli that varied in both dimensions in a paired-comparison task. We modeled how changes in one dimension influenced judgment of the other. An additive model best fit the data in all conditions except for judgment of red chroma where there was a small but significant interaction. Lightness negatively contributed to perception of chroma for red, blue, and green hues but not for yellow. The method permits quantification of lightness and chroma contributions to color appearance.

Maximum Likelihood and Restricted Likelihood Solutions in Multiple-Method Studies

PubMed Central

Rukhin, Andrew L.

2011-01-01

A formulation of the problem of combining data from several sources is discussed in terms of random effects models. The unknown measurement precision is assumed not to be the same for all methods. We investigate maximum likelihood solutions in this model. By representing the likelihood equations as simultaneous polynomial equations, the exact form of the Groebner basis for their stationary points is derived when there are two methods. A parametrization of these solutions which allows their comparison is suggested. A numerical method for solving likelihood equations is outlined, and an alternative to the maximum likelihood method, the restricted maximum likelihood, is studied. In the situation when methods variances are considered to be known an upper bound on the between-method variance is obtained. The relationship between likelihood equations and moment-type equations is also discussed. PMID:26989583

Maximum Likelihood and Restricted Likelihood Solutions in Multiple-Method Studies.

PubMed

Rukhin, Andrew L

2011-01-01

A formulation of the problem of combining data from several sources is discussed in terms of random effects models. The unknown measurement precision is assumed not to be the same for all methods. We investigate maximum likelihood solutions in this model. By representing the likelihood equations as simultaneous polynomial equations, the exact form of the Groebner basis for their stationary points is derived when there are two methods. A parametrization of these solutions which allows their comparison is suggested. A numerical method for solving likelihood equations is outlined, and an alternative to the maximum likelihood method, the restricted maximum likelihood, is studied. In the situation when methods variances are considered to be known an upper bound on the between-method variance is obtained. The relationship between likelihood equations and moment-type equations is also discussed.

High-Performance Clock Synchronization Algorithms for Distributed Wireless Airborne Computer Networks with Applications to Localization and Tracking of Targets

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

GMKPF represents a better and more flexible alternative to the Gaussian Maximum Likelihood (GML), and Exponential Maximum Likelihood ( EML ...accurate results relative to GML and EML when the network delays are modeled in terms of a single non-Gaussian/non-exponential distribution or as a...to the Gaussian Maximum Likelihood (GML), and Exponential Maximum Likelihood ( EML ) estimators for clock offset estimation in non-Gaussian or non

MXLKID: a maximum likelihood parameter identifier. [In LRLTRAN for CDC 7600

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gavel, D.T.

MXLKID (MaXimum LiKelihood IDentifier) is a computer program designed to identify unknown parameters in a nonlinear dynamic system. Using noisy measurement data from the system, the maximum likelihood identifier computes a likelihood function (LF). Identification of system parameters is accomplished by maximizing the LF with respect to the parameters. The main body of this report briefly summarizes the maximum likelihood technique and gives instructions and examples for running the MXLKID program. MXLKID is implemented LRLTRAN on the CDC7600 computer at LLNL. A detailed mathematical description of the algorithm is given in the appendices. 24 figures, 6 tables.

EVALUATION OF A NEW MEAN SCALED AND MOMENT ADJUSTED TEST STATISTIC FOR SEM.

PubMed

Tong, Xiaoxiao; Bentler, Peter M

2013-01-01

Recently a new mean scaled and skewness adjusted test statistic was developed for evaluating structural equation models in small samples and with potentially nonnormal data, but this statistic has received only limited evaluation. The performance of this statistic is compared to normal theory maximum likelihood and two well-known robust test statistics. A modification to the Satorra-Bentler scaled statistic is developed for the condition that sample size is smaller than degrees of freedom. The behavior of the four test statistics is evaluated with a Monte Carlo confirmatory factor analysis study that varies seven sample sizes and three distributional conditions obtained using Headrick's fifth-order transformation to nonnormality. The new statistic performs badly in most conditions except under the normal distribution. The goodness-of-fit χ(2) test based on maximum-likelihood estimation performed well under normal distributions as well as under a condition of asymptotic robustness. The Satorra-Bentler scaled test statistic performed best overall, while the mean scaled and variance adjusted test statistic outperformed the others at small and moderate sample sizes under certain distributional conditions.

Finite mixture model: A maximum likelihood estimation approach on time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yen, Phoong Seuk; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Hamzah, Firdaus Mohamad

2014-09-01

Recently, statistician emphasized on the fitting of finite mixture model by using maximum likelihood estimation as it provides asymptotic properties. In addition, it shows consistency properties as the sample sizes increases to infinity. This illustrated that maximum likelihood estimation is an unbiased estimator. Moreover, the estimate parameters obtained from the application of maximum likelihood estimation have smallest variance as compared to others statistical method as the sample sizes increases. Thus, maximum likelihood estimation is adopted in this paper to fit the two-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and exchange rate for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Results described that there is a negative effect among rubber price and exchange rate for all selected countries.

Composite Partial Likelihood Estimation Under Length-Biased Sampling, With Application to a Prevalent Cohort Study of Dementia

PubMed Central

Huang, Chiung-Yu; Qin, Jing

2013-01-01

The Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA) employed a prevalent cohort design to study survival after onset of dementia, where patients with dementia were sampled and the onset time of dementia was determined retrospectively. The prevalent cohort sampling scheme favors individuals who survive longer. Thus, the observed survival times are subject to length bias. In recent years, there has been a rising interest in developing estimation procedures for prevalent cohort survival data that not only account for length bias but also actually exploit the incidence distribution of the disease to improve efficiency. This article considers semiparametric estimation of the Cox model for the time from dementia onset to death under a stationarity assumption with respect to the disease incidence. Under the stationarity condition, the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation is expected to be fully efficient yet difficult to perform for statistical practitioners, as the likelihood depends on the baseline hazard function in a complicated way. Moreover, the asymptotic properties of the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator are not well-studied. Motivated by the composite likelihood method (Besag 1974), we develop a composite partial likelihood method that retains the simplicity of the popular partial likelihood estimator and can be easily performed using standard statistical software. When applied to the CSHA data, the proposed method estimates a significant difference in survival between the vascular dementia group and the possible Alzheimer’s disease group, while the partial likelihood method for left-truncated and right-censored data yields a greater standard error and a 95% confidence interval covering 0, thus highlighting the practical value of employing a more efficient methodology. To check the assumption of stable disease for the CSHA data, we also present new graphical and numerical tests in the article. The R code used to obtain the maximum composite partial likelihood estimator for the CSHA data is available in the online Supplementary Material, posted on the journal web site. PMID:24000265

Determining the accuracy of maximum likelihood parameter estimates with colored residuals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene A.; Klein, Vladislav

1994-01-01

An important part of building high fidelity mathematical models based on measured data is calculating the accuracy associated with statistical estimates of the model parameters. Indeed, without some idea of the accuracy of parameter estimates, the estimates themselves have limited value. In this work, an expression based on theoretical analysis was developed to properly compute parameter accuracy measures for maximum likelihood estimates with colored residuals. This result is important because experience from the analysis of measured data reveals that the residuals from maximum likelihood estimation are almost always colored. The calculations involved can be appended to conventional maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. Simulated data runs were used to show that the parameter accuracy measures computed with this technique accurately reflect the quality of the parameter estimates from maximum likelihood estimation without the need for analysis of the output residuals in the frequency domain or heuristically determined multiplication factors. The result is general, although the application studied here is maximum likelihood estimation of aerodynamic model parameters from flight test data.

Robust Multi-Frame Adaptive Optics Image Restoration Algorithm Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Poisson Statistics.

PubMed

Li, Dongming; Sun, Changming; Yang, Jinhua; Liu, Huan; Peng, Jiaqi; Zhang, Lijuan

2017-04-06

An adaptive optics (AO) system provides real-time compensation for atmospheric turbulence. However, an AO image is usually of poor contrast because of the nature of the imaging process, meaning that the image contains information coming from both out-of-focus and in-focus planes of the object, which also brings about a loss in quality. In this paper, we present a robust multi-frame adaptive optics image restoration algorithm via maximum likelihood estimation. Our proposed algorithm uses a maximum likelihood method with image regularization as the basic principle, and constructs the joint log likelihood function for multi-frame AO images based on a Poisson distribution model. To begin with, a frame selection method based on image variance is applied to the observed multi-frame AO images to select images with better quality to improve the convergence of a blind deconvolution algorithm. Then, by combining the imaging conditions and the AO system properties, a point spread function estimation model is built. Finally, we develop our iterative solutions for AO image restoration addressing the joint deconvolution issue. We conduct a number of experiments to evaluate the performances of our proposed algorithm. Experimental results show that our algorithm produces accurate AO image restoration results and outperforms the current state-of-the-art blind deconvolution methods.

Robust Multi-Frame Adaptive Optics Image Restoration Algorithm Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Poisson Statistics

PubMed Central

Li, Dongming; Sun, Changming; Yang, Jinhua; Liu, Huan; Peng, Jiaqi; Zhang, Lijuan

2017-01-01

An adaptive optics (AO) system provides real-time compensation for atmospheric turbulence. However, an AO image is usually of poor contrast because of the nature of the imaging process, meaning that the image contains information coming from both out-of-focus and in-focus planes of the object, which also brings about a loss in quality. In this paper, we present a robust multi-frame adaptive optics image restoration algorithm via maximum likelihood estimation. Our proposed algorithm uses a maximum likelihood method with image regularization as the basic principle, and constructs the joint log likelihood function for multi-frame AO images based on a Poisson distribution model. To begin with, a frame selection method based on image variance is applied to the observed multi-frame AO images to select images with better quality to improve the convergence of a blind deconvolution algorithm. Then, by combining the imaging conditions and the AO system properties, a point spread function estimation model is built. Finally, we develop our iterative solutions for AO image restoration addressing the joint deconvolution issue. We conduct a number of experiments to evaluate the performances of our proposed algorithm. Experimental results show that our algorithm produces accurate AO image restoration results and outperforms the current state-of-the-art blind deconvolution methods. PMID:28383503

An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

1975-01-01

A general iterative procedure is given for determining the consistent maximum likelihood estimates of normal distributions. In addition, a local maximum of the log-likelihood function, Newtons's method, a method of scoring, and modifications of these procedures are discussed.

Lod score curves for phase-unknown matings.

PubMed

Hulbert-Shearon, T; Boehnke, M; Lange, K

1996-01-01

For a phase-unknown nuclear family, we show that the likelihood and lod score are unimodal, and we describe conditions under which the maximum occurs at recombination fraction theta = 0, theta = 1/2, and 0 < theta < 1/2. These simply stated necessary and sufficient conditions seem to have escaped the notice of previous statistical geneticists.

A Comparison of a Bayesian and a Maximum Likelihood Tailored Testing Procedure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McKinley, Robert L.; Reckase, Mark D.

A study was conducted to compare tailored testing procedures based on a Bayesian ability estimation technique and on a maximum likelihood ability estimation technique. The Bayesian tailored testing procedure selected items so as to minimize the posterior variance of the ability estimate distribution, while the maximum likelihood tailored testing…

Models and analysis for multivariate failure time data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, Joanna Huang

The goal of this research is to develop and investigate models and analytic methods for multivariate failure time data. We compare models in terms of direct modeling of the margins, flexibility of dependency structure, local vs. global measures of association, and ease of implementation. In particular, we study copula models, and models produced by right neutral cumulative hazard functions and right neutral hazard functions. We examine the changes of association over time for families of bivariate distributions induced from these models by displaying their density contour plots, conditional density plots, correlation curves of Doksum et al, and local cross ratios of Oakes. We know that bivariate distributions with same margins might exhibit quite different dependency structures. In addition to modeling, we study estimation procedures. For copula models, we investigate three estimation procedures. the first procedure is full maximum likelihood. The second procedure is two-stage maximum likelihood. At stage 1, we estimate the parameters in the margins by maximizing the marginal likelihood. At stage 2, we estimate the dependency structure by fixing the margins at the estimated ones. The third procedure is two-stage partially parametric maximum likelihood. It is similar to the second procedure, but we estimate the margins by the Kaplan-Meier estimate. We derive asymptotic properties for these three estimation procedures and compare their efficiency by Monte-Carlo simulations and direct computations. For models produced by right neutral cumulative hazards and right neutral hazards, we derive the likelihood and investigate the properties of the maximum likelihood estimates. Finally, we develop goodness of fit tests for the dependency structure in the copula models. We derive a test statistic and its asymptotic properties based on the test of homogeneity of Zelterman and Chen (1988), and a graphical diagnostic procedure based on the empirical Bayes approach. We study the performance of these two methods using actual and computer generated data.

Maximum likelihood solution for inclination-only data in paleomagnetism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arason, P.; Levi, S.

2010-08-01

We have developed a new robust maximum likelihood method for estimating the unbiased mean inclination from inclination-only data. In paleomagnetic analysis, the arithmetic mean of inclination-only data is known to introduce a shallowing bias. Several methods have been introduced to estimate the unbiased mean inclination of inclination-only data together with measures of the dispersion. Some inclination-only methods were designed to maximize the likelihood function of the marginal Fisher distribution. However, the exact analytical form of the maximum likelihood function is fairly complicated, and all the methods require various assumptions and approximations that are often inappropriate. For some steep and dispersed data sets, these methods provide estimates that are significantly displaced from the peak of the likelihood function to systematically shallower inclination. The problem locating the maximum of the likelihood function is partly due to difficulties in accurately evaluating the function for all values of interest, because some elements of the likelihood function increase exponentially as precision parameters increase, leading to numerical instabilities. In this study, we succeeded in analytically cancelling exponential elements from the log-likelihood function, and we are now able to calculate its value anywhere in the parameter space and for any inclination-only data set. Furthermore, we can now calculate the partial derivatives of the log-likelihood function with desired accuracy, and locate the maximum likelihood without the assumptions required by previous methods. To assess the reliability and accuracy of our method, we generated large numbers of random Fisher-distributed data sets, for which we calculated mean inclinations and precision parameters. The comparisons show that our new robust Arason-Levi maximum likelihood method is the most reliable, and the mean inclination estimates are the least biased towards shallow values.

SMURC: High-Dimension Small-Sample Multivariate Regression With Covariance Estimation.

PubMed

Bayar, Belhassen; Bouaynaya, Nidhal; Shterenberg, Roman

2017-03-01

We consider a high-dimension low sample-size multivariate regression problem that accounts for correlation of the response variables. The system is underdetermined as there are more parameters than samples. We show that the maximum likelihood approach with covariance estimation is senseless because the likelihood diverges. We subsequently propose a normalization of the likelihood function that guarantees convergence. We call this method small-sample multivariate regression with covariance (SMURC) estimation. We derive an optimization problem and its convex approximation to compute SMURC. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the regularized likelihood estimator with known covariance matrix and the sparse conditional Gaussian graphical model. We also apply SMURC to the inference of the wing-muscle gene network of the Drosophila melanogaster (fruit fly).

The recursive maximum likelihood proportion estimator: User's guide and test results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vanrooy, D. L.

1976-01-01

Implementation of the recursive maximum likelihood proportion estimator is described. A user's guide to programs as they currently exist on the IBM 360/67 at LARS, Purdue is included, and test results on LANDSAT data are described. On Hill County data, the algorithm yields results comparable to the standard maximum likelihood proportion estimator.

New applications of maximum likelihood and Bayesian statistics in macromolecular crystallography.

PubMed

McCoy, Airlie J

2002-10-01

Maximum likelihood methods are well known to macromolecular crystallographers as the methods of choice for isomorphous phasing and structure refinement. Recently, the use of maximum likelihood and Bayesian statistics has extended to the areas of molecular replacement and density modification, placing these methods on a stronger statistical foundation and making them more accurate and effective.

Improved relocatable over-the-horizon radar detection and tracking using the maximum likelihood adaptive neural system algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perlovsky, Leonid I.; Webb, Virgil H.; Bradley, Scott R.; Hansen, Christopher A.

1998-07-01

An advanced detection and tracking system is being developed for the U.S. Navy's Relocatable Over-the-Horizon Radar (ROTHR) to provide improved tracking performance against small aircraft typically used in drug-smuggling activities. The development is based on the Maximum Likelihood Adaptive Neural System (MLANS), a model-based neural network that combines advantages of neural network and model-based algorithmic approaches. The objective of the MLANS tracker development effort is to address user requirements for increased detection and tracking capability in clutter and improved track position, heading, and speed accuracy. The MLANS tracker is expected to outperform other approaches to detection and tracking for the following reasons. It incorporates adaptive internal models of target return signals, target tracks and maneuvers, and clutter signals, which leads to concurrent clutter suppression, detection, and tracking (track-before-detect). It is not combinatorial and thus does not require any thresholding or peak picking and can track in low signal-to-noise conditions. It incorporates superresolution spectrum estimation techniques exceeding the performance of conventional maximum likelihood and maximum entropy methods. The unique spectrum estimation method is based on the Einsteinian interpretation of the ROTHR received energy spectrum as a probability density of signal frequency. The MLANS neural architecture and learning mechanism are founded on spectrum models and maximization of the "Einsteinian" likelihood, allowing knowledge of the physical behavior of both targets and clutter to be injected into the tracker algorithms. The paper describes the addressed requirements and expected improvements, theoretical foundations, engineering methodology, and results of the development effort to date.

Computation of nonparametric convex hazard estimators via profile methods.

PubMed

Jankowski, Hanna K; Wellner, Jon A

2009-05-01

This paper proposes a profile likelihood algorithm to compute the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of a convex hazard function. The maximisation is performed in two steps: First the support reduction algorithm is used to maximise the likelihood over all hazard functions with a given point of minimum (or antimode). Then it is shown that the profile (or partially maximised) likelihood is quasi-concave as a function of the antimode, so that a bisection algorithm can be applied to find the maximum of the profile likelihood, and hence also the global maximum. The new algorithm is illustrated using both artificial and real data, including lifetime data for Canadian males and females.

Mixture class recovery in GMM under varying degrees of class separation: frequentist versus Bayesian estimation.

PubMed

Depaoli, Sarah

2013-06-01

Growth mixture modeling (GMM) represents a technique that is designed to capture change over time for unobserved subgroups (or latent classes) that exhibit qualitatively different patterns of growth. The aim of the current article was to explore the impact of latent class separation (i.e., how similar growth trajectories are across latent classes) on GMM performance. Several estimation conditions were compared: maximum likelihood via the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm and the Bayesian framework implementing diffuse priors, "accurate" informative priors, weakly informative priors, data-driven informative priors, priors reflecting partial-knowledge of parameters, and "inaccurate" (but informative) priors. The main goal was to provide insight about the optimal estimation condition under different degrees of latent class separation for GMM. Results indicated that optimal parameter recovery was obtained though the Bayesian approach using "accurate" informative priors, and partial-knowledge priors showed promise for the recovery of the growth trajectory parameters. Maximum likelihood and the remaining Bayesian estimation conditions yielded poor parameter recovery for the latent class proportions and the growth trajectories. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

A maximum likelihood map of chromosome 1.

PubMed Central

Rao, D C; Keats, B J; Lalouel, J M; Morton, N E; Yee, S

1979-01-01

Thirteen loci are mapped on chromosome 1 from genetic evidence. The maximum likelihood map presented permits confirmation that Scianna (SC) and a fourteenth locus, phenylketonuria (PKU), are on chromosome 1, although the location of the latter on the PGM1-AMY segment is uncertain. Eight other controversial genetic assignments are rejected, providing a practical demonstration of the resolution which maximum likelihood theory brings to mapping. PMID:293128

Variance Difference between Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method and Expected A Posteriori Estimation Method Viewed from Number of Test Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mahmud, Jumailiyah; Sutikno, Muzayanah; Naga, Dali S.

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to determine variance difference between maximum likelihood and expected A posteriori estimation methods viewed from number of test items of aptitude test. The variance presents an accuracy generated by both maximum likelihood and Bayes estimation methods. The test consists of three subtests, each with 40 multiple-choice…

Maximum likelihood estimation of signal-to-noise ratio and combiner weight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalson, S.; Dolinar, S. J.

1986-01-01

An algorithm for estimating signal to noise ratio and combiner weight parameters for a discrete time series is presented. The algorithm is based upon the joint maximum likelihood estimate of the signal and noise power. The discrete-time series are the sufficient statistics obtained after matched filtering of a biphase modulated signal in additive white Gaussian noise, before maximum likelihood decoding is performed.

Comparison of Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approach and Regression Approach in Detecting Quantitative Trait Lco Using RAPD Markers

Treesearch

Changren Weng; Thomas L. Kubisiak; C. Dana Nelson; James P. Geaghan; Michael Stine

1999-01-01

Single marker regression and single marker maximum likelihood estimation were tied to detect quantitative trait loci (QTLs) controlling the early height growth of longleaf pine and slash pine using a ((longleaf pine x slash pine) x slash pine) BC, population consisting of 83 progeny. Maximum likelihood estimation was found to be more power than regression and could...

Maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixture model for economic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

2014-06-01

Finite mixture model is a mixture model with finite-dimension. This models are provides a natural representation of heterogeneity in a finite number of latent classes. In addition, finite mixture models also known as latent class models or unsupervised learning models. Recently, maximum likelihood estimation fitted finite mixture models has greatly drawn statistician's attention. The main reason is because maximum likelihood estimation is a powerful statistical method which provides consistent findings as the sample sizes increases to infinity. Thus, the application of maximum likelihood estimation is used to fit finite mixture model in the present paper in order to explore the relationship between nonlinear economic data. In this paper, a two-component normal mixture model is fitted by maximum likelihood estimation in order to investigate the relationship among stock market price and rubber price for sampled countries. Results described that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia.

An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions, Addendum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

1975-01-01

New results and insights concerning a previously published iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions were discussed. It was shown that the procedure converges locally to the consistent maximum likelihood estimate as long as a specified parameter is bounded between two limits. Bound values were given to yield optimal local convergence.

Effect of radiance-to-reflectance transformation and atmosphere removal on maximum likelihood classification accuracy of high-dimensional remote sensing data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffbeck, Joseph P.; Landgrebe, David A.

1994-01-01

Many analysis algorithms for high-dimensional remote sensing data require that the remotely sensed radiance spectra be transformed to approximate reflectance to allow comparison with a library of laboratory reflectance spectra. In maximum likelihood classification, however, the remotely sensed spectra are compared to training samples, thus a transformation to reflectance may or may not be helpful. The effect of several radiance-to-reflectance transformations on maximum likelihood classification accuracy is investigated in this paper. We show that the empirical line approach, LOWTRAN7, flat-field correction, single spectrum method, and internal average reflectance are all non-singular affine transformations, and that non-singular affine transformations have no effect on discriminant analysis feature extraction and maximum likelihood classification accuracy. (An affine transformation is a linear transformation with an optional offset.) Since the Atmosphere Removal Program (ATREM) and the log residue method are not affine transformations, experiments with Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data were conducted to determine the effect of these transformations on maximum likelihood classification accuracy. The average classification accuracy of the data transformed by ATREM and the log residue method was slightly less than the accuracy of the original radiance data. Since the radiance-to-reflectance transformations allow direct comparison of remotely sensed spectra with laboratory reflectance spectra, they can be quite useful in labeling the training samples required by maximum likelihood classification, but these transformations have only a slight effect or no effect at all on discriminant analysis and maximum likelihood classification accuracy.

SubspaceEM: A Fast Maximum-a-posteriori Algorithm for Cryo-EM Single Particle Reconstruction

PubMed Central

Dvornek, Nicha C.; Sigworth, Fred J.; Tagare, Hemant D.

2015-01-01

Single particle reconstruction methods based on the maximum-likelihood principle and the expectation-maximization (E–M) algorithm are popular because of their ability to produce high resolution structures. However, these algorithms are computationally very expensive, requiring a network of computational servers. To overcome this computational bottleneck, we propose a new mathematical framework for accelerating maximum-likelihood reconstructions. The speedup is by orders of magnitude and the proposed algorithm produces similar quality reconstructions compared to the standard maximum-likelihood formulation. Our approach uses subspace approximations of the cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) data and projection images, greatly reducing the number of image transformations and comparisons that are computed. Experiments using simulated and actual cryo-EM data show that speedup in overall execution time compared to traditional maximum-likelihood reconstruction reaches factors of over 300. PMID:25839831

An evaluation of several different classification schemes - Their parameters and performance. [maximum likelihood decision for crop identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scholz, D.; Fuhs, N.; Hixson, M.

1979-01-01

The overall objective of this study was to apply and evaluate several of the currently available classification schemes for crop identification. The approaches examined were: (1) a per point Gaussian maximum likelihood classifier, (2) a per point sum of normal densities classifier, (3) a per point linear classifier, (4) a per point Gaussian maximum likelihood decision tree classifier, and (5) a texture sensitive per field Gaussian maximum likelihood classifier. Three agricultural data sets were used in the study: areas from Fayette County, Illinois, and Pottawattamie and Shelby Counties in Iowa. The segments were located in two distinct regions of the Corn Belt to sample variability in soils, climate, and agricultural practices.

Maximum-Likelihood Detection Of Noncoherent CPM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Divsalar, Dariush; Simon, Marvin K.

1993-01-01

Simplified detectors proposed for use in maximum-likelihood-sequence detection of symbols in alphabet of size M transmitted by uncoded, full-response continuous phase modulation over radio channel with additive white Gaussian noise. Structures of receivers derived from particular interpretation of maximum-likelihood metrics. Receivers include front ends, structures of which depends only on M, analogous to those in receivers of coherent CPM. Parts of receivers following front ends have structures, complexity of which would depend on N.

Cramer-Rao Bound, MUSIC, and Maximum Likelihood. Effects of Temporal Phase Difference

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-11-01

Technical Report 1373 November 1990 Cramer-Rao Bound, MUSIC , And Maximum Likelihood Effects of Temporal Phase o Difference C. V. TranI OTIC Approved... MUSIC , and Maximum Likelihood (ML) asymptotic variances corresponding to the two-source direction-of-arrival estimation where sources were modeled as...1pI = 1.00, SNR = 20 dB ..................................... 27 2. MUSIC for two equipowered signals impinging on a 5-element ULA (a) IpI = 0.50, SNR

Analysis of First-Term Attrition of Non-Prior Service High-Quality U.S. Army Male Recruits

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-12-13

the estimators. Under broad conditions ( Hanushek , 1977 ), the maximum likelihood estimators are: ( a ) consistent (b) asymptotically efficient, and...Diseases, Vol. 24, 1971, pp. 125 - 158. Hanushek , Eric ., and John E. Jackson, Statistical Methods for Social Scientists, Academic Press, New York, 1977

A Note on the Computation of the Second-Order Derivatives of the Elementary Symmetric Functions in the Rasch Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Formann, Anton K.

1986-01-01

It is shown that for equal parameters explicit formulas exist, facilitating the application of the Newton-Raphson procedure to estimate the parameters in the Rasch model and related models according to the conditional maximum likelihood principle. (Author/LMO)

Measurement and Structural Model Class Separation in Mixture CFA: ML/EM versus MCMC

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Depaoli, Sarah

2012-01-01

Parameter recovery was assessed within mixture confirmatory factor analysis across multiple estimator conditions under different simulated levels of mixture class separation. Mixture class separation was defined in the measurement model (through factor loadings) and the structural model (through factor variances). Maximum likelihood (ML) via the…

Maximum likelihood: Extracting unbiased information from complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garlaschelli, Diego; Loffredo, Maria I.

2008-07-01

The choice of free parameters in network models is subjective, since it depends on what topological properties are being monitored. However, we show that the maximum likelihood (ML) principle indicates a unique, statistically rigorous parameter choice, associated with a well-defined topological feature. We then find that, if the ML condition is incompatible with the built-in parameter choice, network models turn out to be intrinsically ill defined or biased. To overcome this problem, we construct a class of safely unbiased models. We also propose an extension of these results that leads to the fascinating possibility to extract, only from topological data, the “hidden variables” underlying network organization, making them “no longer hidden.” We test our method on World Trade Web data, where we recover the empirical gross domestic product using only topological information.

A general methodology for maximum likelihood inference from band-recovery data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Williams, B.K.

1984-01-01

A numerical procedure is described for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates and associated maximum likelihood inference from band- recovery data. The method is used to illustrate previously developed one-age-class band-recovery models, and is extended to new models, including the analysis with a covariate for survival rates and variable-time-period recovery models. Extensions to R-age-class band- recovery, mark-recapture models, and twice-yearly marking are discussed. A FORTRAN program provides computations for these models.

An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

1978-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of obtaining numerically maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions. In recent literature, a certain successive-approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, was shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, we introduce a general iterative procedure, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. We show that, with probability 1 as the sample size grows large, this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. We also show that the step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the 'separation' of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.

An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions, 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

1976-01-01

The problem of obtaining numerically maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions is addressed. In recent literature, a certain successive approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, is shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, a general iterative procedure is introduced, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. With probability 1 as the sample size grows large, it is shown that this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. The step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the separation of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.

Estimating residual fault hitting rates by recapture sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Larry; Gupta, Rajan

1988-01-01

For the recapture debugging design introduced by Nayak (1988) the problem of estimating the hitting rates of the faults remaining in the system is considered. In the context of a conditional likelihood, moment estimators are derived and are shown to be asymptotically normal and fully efficient. Fixed sample properties of the moment estimators are compared, through simulation, with those of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators. Properties of the conditional model are investigated such as the asymptotic distribution of linear functions of the fault hitting frequencies and a representation of the full data vector in terms of a sequence of independent random vectors. It is assumed that the residual hitting rates follow a log linear rate model and that the testing process is truncated when the gaps between the detection of new errors exceed a fixed amount of time.

Conditional maximum-entropy method for selecting prior distributions in Bayesian statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, Sumiyoshi

2014-11-01

The conditional maximum-entropy method (abbreviated here as C-MaxEnt) is formulated for selecting prior probability distributions in Bayesian statistics for parameter estimation. This method is inspired by a statistical-mechanical approach to systems governed by dynamics with largely separated time scales and is based on three key concepts: conjugate pairs of variables, dimensionless integration measures with coarse-graining factors and partial maximization of the joint entropy. The method enables one to calculate a prior purely from a likelihood in a simple way. It is shown, in particular, how it not only yields Jeffreys's rules but also reveals new structures hidden behind them.

Estimation of the Nonlinear Random Coefficient Model when Some Random Effects Are Separable

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

du Toit, Stephen H. C.; Cudeck, Robert

2009-01-01

A method is presented for marginal maximum likelihood estimation of the nonlinear random coefficient model when the response function has some linear parameters. This is done by writing the marginal distribution of the repeated measures as a conditional distribution of the response given the nonlinear random effects. The resulting distribution…

The Asymptotic Distribution of Ability Estimates: Beyond Dichotomous Items and Unidimensional IRT Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinharay, Sandip

2015-01-01

The maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the ability parameter of an item response theory model with known item parameters was proved to be asymptotically normally distributed under a set of regularity conditions for tests involving dichotomous items and a unidimensional ability parameter (Klauer, 1990; Lord, 1983). This article first considers…

Effects of Missing Data Methods in Structural Equation Modeling with Nonnormal Longitudinal Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shin, Tacksoo; Davison, Mark L.; Long, Jeffrey D.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of missing data techniques in longitudinal studies under diverse conditions. A Monte Carlo simulation examined the performance of 3 missing data methods in latent growth modeling: listwise deletion (LD), maximum likelihood estimation using the expectation and maximization algorithm with a…

A Model-Based Approach for Visualizing the Dimensional Structure of Ordered Successive Categories Preference Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeSarbo, Wayne S.; Park, Joonwook; Scott, Crystal J.

2008-01-01

A cyclical conditional maximum likelihood estimation procedure is developed for the multidimensional unfolding of two- or three-way dominance data (e.g., preference, choice, consideration) measured on ordered successive category rating scales. The technical description of the proposed model and estimation procedure are discussed, as well as the…

Maximum likelihood orientation estimation of 1-D patterns in Laguerre-Gauss subspaces.

PubMed

Di Claudio, Elio D; Jacovitti, Giovanni; Laurenti, Alberto

2010-05-01

A method for measuring the orientation of linear (1-D) patterns, based on a local expansion with Laguerre-Gauss circular harmonic (LG-CH) functions, is presented. It lies on the property that the polar separable LG-CH functions span the same space as the 2-D Cartesian separable Hermite-Gauss (2-D HG) functions. Exploiting the simple steerability of the LG-CH functions and the peculiar block-linear relationship among the two expansion coefficients sets, maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of orientation and cross section parameters of 1-D patterns are obtained projecting them in a proper subspace of the 2-D HG family. It is shown in this paper that the conditional ML solution, derived by elimination of the cross section parameters, surprisingly yields the same asymptotic accuracy as the ML solution for known cross section parameters. The accuracy of the conditional ML estimator is compared to the one of state of art solutions on a theoretical basis and via simulation trials. A thorough proof of the key relationship between the LG-CH and the 2-D HG expansions is also provided.

Asymptotic Properties of Induced Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Nonlinear Models for Item Response Variables: The Finite-Generic-Item-Pool Case.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Douglas H.

The progress of modern mental test theory depends very much on the techniques of maximum likelihood estimation, and many popular applications make use of likelihoods induced by logistic item response models. While, in reality, item responses are nonreplicate within a single examinee and the logistic models are only ideal, practitioners make…

Bias Correction for the Maximum Likelihood Estimate of Ability. Research Report. ETS RR-05-15

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Jinming

2005-01-01

Lord's bias function and the weighted likelihood estimation method are effective in reducing the bias of the maximum likelihood estimate of an examinee's ability under the assumption that the true item parameters are known. This paper presents simulation studies to determine the effectiveness of these two methods in reducing the bias when the item…

Conditional estimation using prior information in 2-stage group sequential designs assuming asymptotic normality when the trial terminated early.

PubMed

Shimura, Masashi; Maruo, Kazushi; Gosho, Masahiko

2018-04-23

Two-stage designs are widely used to determine whether a clinical trial should be terminated early. In such trials, a maximum likelihood estimate is often adopted to describe the difference in efficacy between the experimental and reference treatments; however, this method is known to display conditional bias. To reduce such bias, a conditional mean-adjusted estimator (CMAE) has been proposed, although the remaining bias may be nonnegligible when a trial is stopped for efficacy at the interim analysis. We propose a new estimator for adjusting the conditional bias of the treatment effect by extending the idea of the CMAE. This estimator is calculated by weighting the maximum likelihood estimate obtained at the interim analysis and the effect size prespecified when calculating the sample size. We evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator through analytical and simulation studies in various settings in which a trial is stopped for efficacy or futility at the interim analysis. We find that the conditional bias of the proposed estimator is smaller than that of the CMAE when the information time at the interim analysis is small. In addition, the mean-squared error of the proposed estimator is also smaller than that of the CMAE. In conclusion, we recommend the use of the proposed estimator for trials that are terminated early for efficacy or futility. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating parameter of Rayleigh distribution by using Maximum Likelihood method and Bayes method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardianti, Fitri; Sutarman

2018-01-01

In this paper, we use Maximum Likelihood estimation and Bayes method under some risk function to estimate parameter of Rayleigh distribution to know the best method. The prior knowledge which used in Bayes method is Jeffrey’s non-informative prior. Maximum likelihood estimation and Bayes method under precautionary loss function, entropy loss function, loss function-L 1 will be compared. We compare these methods by bias and MSE value using R program. After that, the result will be displayed in tables to facilitate the comparisons.

Multivariate normal maximum likelihood with both ordinal and continuous variables, and data missing at random.

PubMed

Pritikin, Joshua N; Brick, Timothy R; Neale, Michael C

2018-04-01

A novel method for the maximum likelihood estimation of structural equation models (SEM) with both ordinal and continuous indicators is introduced using a flexible multivariate probit model for the ordinal indicators. A full information approach ensures unbiased estimates for data missing at random. Exceeding the capability of prior methods, up to 13 ordinal variables can be included before integration time increases beyond 1 s per row. The method relies on the axiom of conditional probability to split apart the distribution of continuous and ordinal variables. Due to the symmetry of the axiom, two similar methods are available. A simulation study provides evidence that the two similar approaches offer equal accuracy. A further simulation is used to develop a heuristic to automatically select the most computationally efficient approach. Joint ordinal continuous SEM is implemented in OpenMx, free and open-source software.

Combining classifiers using their receiver operating characteristics and maximum likelihood estimation.

PubMed

Haker, Steven; Wells, William M; Warfield, Simon K; Talos, Ion-Florin; Bhagwat, Jui G; Goldberg-Zimring, Daniel; Mian, Asim; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Zou, Kelly H

2005-01-01

In any medical domain, it is common to have more than one test (classifier) to diagnose a disease. In image analysis, for example, there is often more than one reader or more than one algorithm applied to a certain data set. Combining of classifiers is often helpful, but determining the way in which classifiers should be combined is not trivial. Standard strategies are based on learning classifier combination functions from data. We describe a simple strategy to combine results from classifiers that have not been applied to a common data set, and therefore can not undergo this type of joint training. The strategy, which assumes conditional independence of classifiers, is based on the calculation of a combined Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, using maximum likelihood analysis to determine a combination rule for each ROC operating point. We offer some insights into the use of ROC analysis in the field of medical imaging.

Combining Classifiers Using Their Receiver Operating Characteristics and Maximum Likelihood Estimation*

PubMed Central

Haker, Steven; Wells, William M.; Warfield, Simon K.; Talos, Ion-Florin; Bhagwat, Jui G.; Goldberg-Zimring, Daniel; Mian, Asim; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Zou, Kelly H.

2010-01-01

In any medical domain, it is common to have more than one test (classifier) to diagnose a disease. In image analysis, for example, there is often more than one reader or more than one algorithm applied to a certain data set. Combining of classifiers is often helpful, but determining the way in which classifiers should be combined is not trivial. Standard strategies are based on learning classifier combination functions from data. We describe a simple strategy to combine results from classifiers that have not been applied to a common data set, and therefore can not undergo this type of joint training. The strategy, which assumes conditional independence of classifiers, is based on the calculation of a combined Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, using maximum likelihood analysis to determine a combination rule for each ROC operating point. We offer some insights into the use of ROC analysis in the field of medical imaging. PMID:16685884

A LANDSAT study of ephemeral and perennial rangeland vegetation and soils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bentley, R. G., Jr. (Principal Investigator); Salmon-Drexler, B. C.; Bonner, W. J.; Vincent, R. K.

1976-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Several methods of computer processing were applied to LANDSAT data for mapping vegetation characteristics of perennial rangeland in Montana and ephemeral rangeland in Arizona. The choice of optimal processing technique was dependent on prescribed mapping and site condition. Single channel level slicing and ratioing of channels were used for simple enhancement. Predictive models for mapping percent vegetation cover based on data from field spectra and LANDSAT data were generated by multiple linear regression of six unique LANDSAT spectral ratios. Ratio gating logic and maximum likelihood classification were applied successfully to recognize plant communities in Montana. Maximum likelihood classification did little to improve recognition of terrain features when compared to a single channel density slice in sparsely vegetated Arizona. LANDSAT was found to be more sensitive to differences between plant communities based on percentages of vigorous vegetation than to actual physical or spectral differences among plant species.

Closed-loop carrier phase synchronization techniques motivated by likelihood functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsou, H.; Hinedi, S.; Simon, M.

1994-01-01

This article reexamines the notion of closed-loop carrier phase synchronization motivated by the theory of maximum a posteriori phase estimation with emphasis on the development of new structures based on both maximum-likelihood and average-likelihood functions. The criterion of performance used for comparison of all the closed-loop structures discussed is the mean-squared phase error for a fixed-loop bandwidth.

Fast maximum likelihood estimation of mutation rates using a birth-death process.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaowei; Zhu, Hongxiao

2015-02-07

Since fluctuation analysis was first introduced by Luria and Delbrück in 1943, it has been widely used to make inference about spontaneous mutation rates in cultured cells. Under certain model assumptions, the probability distribution of the number of mutants that appear in a fluctuation experiment can be derived explicitly, which provides the basis of mutation rate estimation. It has been shown that, among various existing estimators, the maximum likelihood estimator usually demonstrates some desirable properties such as consistency and lower mean squared error. However, its application in real experimental data is often hindered by slow computation of likelihood due to the recursive form of the mutant-count distribution. We propose a fast maximum likelihood estimator of mutation rates, MLE-BD, based on a birth-death process model with non-differential growth assumption. Simulation studies demonstrate that, compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimator derived from the Luria-Delbrück distribution, MLE-BD achieves substantial improvement on computational speed and is applicable to arbitrarily large number of mutants. In addition, it still retains good accuracy on point estimation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Low-complexity approximations to maximum likelihood MPSK modulation classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamkins, Jon

2004-01-01

We present a new approximation to the maximum likelihood classifier to discriminate between M-ary and M'-ary phase-shift-keying transmitted on an additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel and received noncoherentl, partially coherently, or coherently.

An Extension of the Partial Credit Model with an Application to the Measurement of Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fischer, Gerhard H.; Ponocny, Ivo

1994-01-01

An extension to the partial credit model, the linear partial credit model, is considered under the assumption of a certain linear decomposition of the item x category parameters into basic parameters. A conditional maximum likelihood algorithm for estimating basic parameters is presented and illustrated with simulation and an empirical study. (SLD)

Maximum likelihood decoding analysis of accumulate-repeat-accumulate codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbasfar, A.; Divsalar, D.; Yao, K.

2004-01-01

In this paper, the performance of the repeat-accumulate codes with (ML) decoding are analyzed and compared to random codes by very tight bounds. Some simple codes are shown that perform very close to Shannon limit with maximum likelihood decoding.

The Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Signature Transformation /MLEST/ algorithm. [for affine transformation of crop inventory data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thadani, S. G.

1977-01-01

The Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Signature Transformation (MLEST) algorithm is used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of affine transformation. The algorithm has been evaluated for three sets of data: simulated (training and recognition segment pairs), consecutive-day (data gathered from Landsat images), and geographical-extension (large-area crop inventory experiment) data sets. For each set, MLEST signature extension runs were made to determine MLE values and the affine-transformed training segment signatures were used to classify the recognition segments. The classification results were used to estimate wheat proportions at 0 and 1% threshold values.

Maximum-likelihood block detection of noncoherent continuous phase modulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Marvin K.; Divsalar, Dariush

1993-01-01

This paper examines maximum-likelihood block detection of uncoded full response CPM over an additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel. Both the maximum-likelihood metrics and the bit error probability performances of the associated detection algorithms are considered. The special and popular case of minimum-shift-keying (MSK) corresponding to h = 0.5 and constant amplitude frequency pulse is treated separately. The many new receiver structures that result from this investigation can be compared to the traditional ones that have been used in the past both from the standpoint of simplicity of implementation and optimality of performance.

Design of simplified maximum-likelihood receivers for multiuser CPM systems.

PubMed

Bing, Li; Bai, Baoming

2014-01-01

A class of simplified maximum-likelihood receivers designed for continuous phase modulation based multiuser systems is proposed. The presented receiver is built upon a front end employing mismatched filters and a maximum-likelihood detector defined in a low-dimensional signal space. The performance of the proposed receivers is analyzed and compared to some existing receivers. Some schemes are designed to implement the proposed receivers and to reveal the roles of different system parameters. Analysis and numerical results show that the proposed receivers can approach the optimum multiuser receivers with significantly (even exponentially in some cases) reduced complexity and marginal performance degradation.

Maximum likelihood clustering with dependent feature trees

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chittineni, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The decomposition of mixture density of the data into its normal component densities is considered. The densities are approximated with first order dependent feature trees using criteria of mutual information and distance measures. Expressions are presented for the criteria when the densities are Gaussian. By defining different typs of nodes in a general dependent feature tree, maximum likelihood equations are developed for the estimation of parameters using fixed point iterations. The field structure of the data is also taken into account in developing maximum likelihood equations. Experimental results from the processing of remotely sensed multispectral scanner imagery data are included.

An Iterative Maximum a Posteriori Estimation of Proficiency Level to Detect Multiple Local Likelihood Maxima

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magis, David; Raiche, Gilles

2010-01-01

In this article the authors focus on the issue of the nonuniqueness of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator of proficiency level in item response theory (with special attention to logistic models). The usual maximum a posteriori (MAP) method offers a good alternative within that framework; however, this article highlights some drawbacks of its…

Cosmic shear measurement with maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Alex; Taylor, Andy

2017-06-01

We investigate the problem of noise bias in maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimators for cosmic shear. We derive the leading and next-to-leading order biases and compute them in the context of galaxy ellipticity measurements, extending previous work on maximum likelihood inference for weak lensing. We show that a large part of the bias on these point estimators can be removed using information already contained in the likelihood when a galaxy model is specified, without the need for external calibration. We test these bias-corrected estimators on simulated galaxy images similar to those expected from planned space-based weak lensing surveys, with promising results. We find that the introduction of an intrinsic shape prior can help with mitigation of noise bias, such that the maximum a posteriori estimate can be made less biased than the maximum likelihood estimate. Second-order terms offer a check on the convergence of the estimators, but are largely subdominant. We show how biases propagate to shear estimates, demonstrating in our simple set-up that shear biases can be reduced by orders of magnitude and potentially to within the requirements of planned space-based surveys at mild signal-to-noise ratio. We find that second-order terms can exhibit significant cancellations at low signal-to-noise ratio when Gaussian noise is assumed, which has implications for inferring the performance of shear-measurement algorithms from simplified simulations. We discuss the viability of our point estimators as tools for lensing inference, arguing that they allow for the robust measurement of ellipticity and shear.

Some Small Sample Results for Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Multidimensional Scaling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramsay, J. O.

1980-01-01

Some aspects of the small sample behavior of maximum likelihood estimates in multidimensional scaling are investigated with Monte Carlo techniques. In particular, the chi square test for dimensionality is examined and a correction for bias is proposed and evaluated. (Author/JKS)

ATAC Autocuer Modeling Analysis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

the analysis of the simple rectangular scrnentation (1) is based on detection and estimation theory (2). This approach uses the concept of maximum ...continuous wave forms. In order to develop the principles of maximum likelihood, it is con- venient to develop the principles for the "classical...the concept of maximum likelihood is significant in that it provides the optimum performance of the detection/estimation problem. With a knowledge of

The Maximum Likelihood Solution for Inclination-only Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arason, P.; Levi, S.

2006-12-01

The arithmetic means of inclination-only data are known to introduce a shallowing bias. Several methods have been proposed to estimate unbiased means of the inclination along with measures of the precision. Most of the inclination-only methods were designed to maximize the likelihood function of the marginal Fisher distribution. However, the exact analytical form of the maximum likelihood function is fairly complicated, and all these methods require various assumptions and approximations that are inappropriate for many data sets. For some steep and dispersed data sets, the estimates provided by these methods are significantly displaced from the peak of the likelihood function to systematically shallower inclinations. The problem in locating the maximum of the likelihood function is partly due to difficulties in accurately evaluating the function for all values of interest. This is because some elements of the log-likelihood function increase exponentially as precision parameters increase, leading to numerical instabilities. In this study we succeeded in analytically cancelling exponential elements from the likelihood function, and we are now able to calculate its value for any location in the parameter space and for any inclination-only data set, with full accuracy. Furtermore, we can now calculate the partial derivatives of the likelihood function with desired accuracy. Locating the maximum likelihood without the assumptions required by previous methods is now straight forward. The information to separate the mean inclination from the precision parameter will be lost for very steep and dispersed data sets. It is worth noting that the likelihood function always has a maximum value. However, for some dispersed and steep data sets with few samples, the likelihood function takes its highest value on the boundary of the parameter space, i.e. at inclinations of +/- 90 degrees, but with relatively well defined dispersion. Our simulations indicate that this occurs quite frequently for certain data sets, and relatively small perturbations in the data will drive the maxima to the boundary. We interpret this to indicate that, for such data sets, the information needed to separate the mean inclination and the precision parameter is permanently lost. To assess the reliability and accuracy of our method we generated large number of random Fisher-distributed data sets and used seven methods to estimate the mean inclination and precision paramenter. These comparisons are described by Levi and Arason at the 2006 AGU Fall meeting. The results of the various methods is very favourable to our new robust maximum likelihood method, which, on average, is the most reliable, and the mean inclination estimates are the least biased toward shallow values. Further information on our inclination-only analysis can be obtained from: http://www.vedur.is/~arason/paleomag

Additive hazards regression and partial likelihood estimation for ecological monitoring data across space.

PubMed

Lin, Feng-Chang; Zhu, Jun

2012-01-01

We develop continuous-time models for the analysis of environmental or ecological monitoring data such that subjects are observed at multiple monitoring time points across space. Of particular interest are additive hazards regression models where the baseline hazard function can take on flexible forms. We consider time-varying covariates and take into account spatial dependence via autoregression in space and time. We develop statistical inference for the regression coefficients via partial likelihood. Asymptotic properties, including consistency and asymptotic normality, are established for parameter estimates under suitable regularity conditions. Feasible algorithms utilizing existing statistical software packages are developed for computation. We also consider a simpler additive hazards model with homogeneous baseline hazard and develop hypothesis testing for homogeneity. A simulation study demonstrates that the statistical inference using partial likelihood has sound finite-sample properties and offers a viable alternative to maximum likelihood estimation. For illustration, we analyze data from an ecological study that monitors bark beetle colonization of red pines in a plantation of Wisconsin.

Estimation Methods for Non-Homogeneous Regression - Minimum CRPS vs Maximum Likelihood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebetsberger, Manuel; Messner, Jakob W.; Mayr, Georg J.; Zeileis, Achim

2017-04-01

Non-homogeneous regression models are widely used to statistically post-process numerical weather prediction models. Such regression models correct for errors in mean and variance and are capable to forecast a full probability distribution. In order to estimate the corresponding regression coefficients, CRPS minimization is performed in many meteorological post-processing studies since the last decade. In contrast to maximum likelihood estimation, CRPS minimization is claimed to yield more calibrated forecasts. Theoretically, both scoring rules used as an optimization score should be able to locate a similar and unknown optimum. Discrepancies might result from a wrong distributional assumption of the observed quantity. To address this theoretical concept, this study compares maximum likelihood and minimum CRPS estimation for different distributional assumptions. First, a synthetic case study shows that, for an appropriate distributional assumption, both estimation methods yield to similar regression coefficients. The log-likelihood estimator is slightly more efficient. A real world case study for surface temperature forecasts at different sites in Europe confirms these results but shows that surface temperature does not always follow the classical assumption of a Gaussian distribution. KEYWORDS: ensemble post-processing, maximum likelihood estimation, CRPS minimization, probabilistic temperature forecasting, distributional regression models

Algorithms of maximum likelihood data clustering with applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giada, Lorenzo; Marsili, Matteo

2002-12-01

We address the problem of data clustering by introducing an unsupervised, parameter-free approach based on maximum likelihood principle. Starting from the observation that data sets belonging to the same cluster share a common information, we construct an expression for the likelihood of any possible cluster structure. The likelihood in turn depends only on the Pearson's coefficient of the data. We discuss clustering algorithms that provide a fast and reliable approximation to maximum likelihood configurations. Compared to standard clustering methods, our approach has the advantages that (i) it is parameter free, (ii) the number of clusters need not be fixed in advance and (iii) the interpretation of the results is transparent. In order to test our approach and compare it with standard clustering algorithms, we analyze two very different data sets: time series of financial market returns and gene expression data. We find that different maximization algorithms produce similar cluster structures whereas the outcome of standard algorithms has a much wider variability.

A low-power, high-throughput maximum-likelihood convolutional decoder chip for NASA's 30/20 GHz program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccallister, R. D.; Crawford, J. J.

1981-01-01

It is pointed out that the NASA 30/20 GHz program will place in geosynchronous orbit a technically advanced communication satellite which can process time-division multiple access (TDMA) information bursts with a data throughput in excess of 4 GBPS. To guarantee acceptable data quality during periods of signal attenuation it will be necessary to provide a significant forward error correction (FEC) capability. Convolutional decoding (utilizing the maximum-likelihood techniques) was identified as the most attractive FEC strategy. Design trade-offs regarding a maximum-likelihood convolutional decoder (MCD) in a single-chip CMOS implementation are discussed.

PAMLX: a graphical user interface for PAML.

PubMed

Xu, Bo; Yang, Ziheng

2013-12-01

This note announces pamlX, a graphical user interface/front end for the paml (for Phylogenetic Analysis by Maximum Likelihood) program package (Yang Z. 1997. PAML: a program package for phylogenetic analysis by maximum likelihood. Comput Appl Biosci. 13:555-556; Yang Z. 2007. PAML 4: Phylogenetic analysis by maximum likelihood. Mol Biol Evol. 24:1586-1591). pamlX is written in C++ using the Qt library and communicates with paml programs through files. It can be used to create, edit, and print control files for paml programs and to launch paml runs. The interface is available for free download at http://abacus.gene.ucl.ac.uk/software/paml.html.

The Performance of ML, GLS, and WLS Estimation in Structural Equation Modeling under Conditions of Misspecification and Nonnormality.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olsson, Ulf Henning; Foss, Tron; Troye, Sigurd V.; Howell, Roy D.

2000-01-01

Used simulation to demonstrate how the choice of estimation method affects indexes of fit and parameter bias for different sample sizes when nested models vary in terms of specification error and the data demonstrate different levels of kurtosis. Discusses results for maximum likelihood (ML), generalized least squares (GLS), and weighted least…

Sources of variation in Landsat autocorrelation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Craig, R. G.; Labovitz, M. L.

1980-01-01

Analysis of sixty-four scan lines representing diverse conditions across satellites, channels, scanners, locations and cloud cover confirms that Landsat data are autocorrelated and consistently follow an Arima (1,0,1) pattern. The AR parameter varies significantly with location and the MA coefficient with cloud cover. Maximum likelihood classification functions are considerably in error unless this autocorrelation is compensated for in sampling.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Nonlinear Structural Equation Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum; Zhu, Hong-Tu

2002-01-01

Developed an EM type algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of a general nonlinear structural equation model in which the E-step is completed by a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Illustrated the methodology with results from a simulation study and two real examples using data from previous studies. (SLD)

ARMA-Based SEM When the Number of Time Points T Exceeds the Number of Cases N: Raw Data Maximum Likelihood.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamaker, Ellen L.; Dolan, Conor V.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

2003-01-01

Demonstrated, through simulation, that stationary autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models may be fitted readily when T>N, using normal theory raw maximum likelihood structural equation modeling. Also provides some illustrations based on real data. (SLD)

Maximum likelihood phase-retrieval algorithm: applications.

PubMed

Nahrstedt, D A; Southwell, W H

1984-12-01

The maximum likelihood estimator approach is shown to be effective in determining the wave front aberration in systems involving laser and flow field diagnostics and optical testing. The robustness of the algorithm enables convergence even in cases of severe wave front error and real, nonsymmetrical, obscured amplitude distributions.

Population Synthesis of Radio and Gamma-ray Pulsars using the Maximum Likelihood Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Billman, Caleb; Gonthier, P. L.; Harding, A. K.

2012-01-01

We present the results of a pulsar population synthesis of normal pulsars from the Galactic disk using a maximum likelihood method. We seek to maximize the likelihood of a set of parameters in a Monte Carlo population statistics code to better understand their uncertainties and the confidence region of the model's parameter space. The maximum likelihood method allows for the use of more applicable Poisson statistics in the comparison of distributions of small numbers of detected gamma-ray and radio pulsars. Our code simulates pulsars at birth using Monte Carlo techniques and evolves them to the present assuming initial spatial, kick velocity, magnetic field, and period distributions. Pulsars are spun down to the present and given radio and gamma-ray emission characteristics. We select measured distributions of radio pulsars from the Parkes Multibeam survey and Fermi gamma-ray pulsars to perform a likelihood analysis of the assumed model parameters such as initial period and magnetic field, and radio luminosity. We present the results of a grid search of the parameter space as well as a search for the maximum likelihood using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We express our gratitude for the generous support of the Michigan Space Grant Consortium, of the National Science Foundation (REU and RUI), the NASA Astrophysics Theory and Fundamental Program and the NASA Fermi Guest Investigator Program.

Coalescent-based species tree inference from gene tree topologies under incomplete lineage sorting by maximum likelihood.

PubMed

Wu, Yufeng

2012-03-01

Incomplete lineage sorting can cause incongruence between the phylogenetic history of genes (the gene tree) and that of the species (the species tree), which can complicate the inference of phylogenies. In this article, I present a new coalescent-based algorithm for species tree inference with maximum likelihood. I first describe an improved method for computing the probability of a gene tree topology given a species tree, which is much faster than an existing algorithm by Degnan and Salter (2005). Based on this method, I develop a practical algorithm that takes a set of gene tree topologies and infers species trees with maximum likelihood. This algorithm searches for the best species tree by starting from initial species trees and performing heuristic search to obtain better trees with higher likelihood. This algorithm, called STELLS (which stands for Species Tree InfErence with Likelihood for Lineage Sorting), has been implemented in a program that is downloadable from the author's web page. The simulation results show that the STELLS algorithm is more accurate than an existing maximum likelihood method for many datasets, especially when there is noise in gene trees. I also show that the STELLS algorithm is efficient and can be applied to real biological datasets. © 2011 The Author. Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Group Influences on Young Adult Warfighters’ Risk Taking

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

Statistical Analysis Latent linear growth models were fitted using the maximum likelihood estimation method in Mplus (version 7.0; Muthen & Muthen...condition had a higher net score than those in the alone condition (b = 20.53, SE = 6.29, p < .001). Results of the relevant statistical analyses are...8.56 110.86*** 22.01 158.25*** 29.91 Model fit statistics BIC 4004.50 5302.539 5540.58 Chi-square (df) 41.51*** (16) 38.10** (20) 42.19** (20

Limnological Conditions and Occurrence of Taste-and-Odor Compounds in Lake William C. Bowen and Municipal Reservoir #1, Spartanburg County, South Carolina, 2006-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Journey, Celeste A.; Arrington, Jane M.; Beaulieu, Karen M.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Bradley, Paul M.

2011-01-01

Limnological conditions and the occurrence of taste-and-odor compounds were studied in two reservoirs in Spartanburg County, South Carolina, from May 2006 to June 2009. Lake William C. Bowen and Municipal Reservoir #1 are relatively shallow, meso-eutrophic, warm monomictic, cascading impoundments on the South Pacolet River. Overall, water-quality conditions and phytoplankton community assemblages were similar between the two reservoirs but differed seasonally. Median dissolved geosmin concentrations in the reservoirs ranged from 0.004 to 0.006 microgram per liter. Annual maximum dissolved geosmin concentrations tended to occur between March and May. In this study, peak dissolved geosmin production occurred in April and May 2008, ranging from 0.050 to 0.100 microgram per liter at the deeper reservoir sites. Peak dissolved geosmin production was not concurrent with maximum cyanobacterial biovolumes, which tended to occur in the summer (July to August), but was concurrent with a peak in the fraction of genera with known geosmin-producing strains in the cyanobacteria group. Nonetheless, annual maximum cyanobacterial biovolumes rarely resulted in cyanobacteria dominance of the phytoplankton community. In both reservoirs, elevated dissolved geosmin concentrations were correlated to environmental factors indicative of unstratified conditions and reduced algal productivity, but not to nutrient concentrations or ratios. With respect to potential geosmin sources, elevated geosmin concentrations were correlated to greater fractions of genera with known geosmin-producing strains in the cyanobacteria group and to biovolumes of a specific geosmin-producing cyanobacteria genus (Oscillatoria), but not to actinomycetes concentrations. Conversely, environmental factors that correlated with elevated cyanobacterial biovolumes were indicative of stable water columns (stratified conditions), warm water temperatures, reduced nitrogen concentrations, longer residence times, and high phosphorus concentrations in the hypolimnion. Biovolumes of Cylindrospermopsis, Planktolyngbya, Synechococcus, Synechocystis, and Aphanizomenon correlated with the greater cyanobacteria biovolumes and were the dominant taxa in the cyanobacteria group. Related environmental variables were selected as input into multiple logistic regression models to evaluate the likelihood that geosmin concentrations could exceed the threshold level for human detection. In Lake William C. Bowen, the likelihood that dissolved geosmin concentrations exceeded the human detection threshold was estimated by greater mixing zone depths and differences in the 30-day prior moving window averages of overflow and flowthrough at Lake Bowen dam and by lower total nitrogen concentrations. At the R.B. Simms Water Treatment Plant, the likelihood that total geosmin concentrations in the raw water exceeded the human detection threshold was estimated by greater outflow from Reservoir #1 and lower concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen. Overall, both models indicated greater likelihood that geosmin could exceed the human detection threshold during periods of lower nitrogen concentrations and greater water movement in the reservoirs.

Estimating the variance for heterogeneity in arm-based network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Piepho, Hans-Peter; Madden, Laurence V; Roger, James; Payne, Roger; Williams, Emlyn R

2018-04-19

Network meta-analysis can be implemented by using arm-based or contrast-based models. Here we focus on arm-based models and fit them using generalized linear mixed model procedures. Full maximum likelihood (ML) estimation leads to biased trial-by-treatment interaction variance estimates for heterogeneity. Thus, our objective is to investigate alternative approaches to variance estimation that reduce bias compared with full ML. Specifically, we use penalized quasi-likelihood/pseudo-likelihood and hierarchical (h) likelihood approaches. In addition, we consider a novel model modification that yields estimators akin to the residual maximum likelihood estimator for linear mixed models. The proposed methods are compared by simulation, and 2 real datasets are used for illustration. Simulations show that penalized quasi-likelihood/pseudo-likelihood and h-likelihood reduce bias and yield satisfactory coverage rates. Sum-to-zero restriction and baseline contrasts for random trial-by-treatment interaction effects, as well as a residual ML-like adjustment, also reduce bias compared with an unconstrained model when ML is used, but coverage rates are not quite as good. Penalized quasi-likelihood/pseudo-likelihood and h-likelihood are therefore recommended. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On Muthen's Maximum Likelihood for Two-Level Covariance Structure Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Hayashi, Kentaro

2005-01-01

Data in social and behavioral sciences are often hierarchically organized. Special statistical procedures that take into account the dependence of such observations have been developed. Among procedures for 2-level covariance structure analysis, Muthen's maximum likelihood (MUML) has the advantage of easier computation and faster convergence. When…

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Ignorable Missing Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum; Song, Xin-Yuan; Lee, John C. K.

2003-01-01

The existing maximum likelihood theory and its computer software in structural equation modeling are established on the basis of linear relationships among latent variables with fully observed data. However, in social and behavioral sciences, nonlinear relationships among the latent variables are important for establishing more meaningful models…

Mixture Rasch Models with Joint Maximum Likelihood Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willse, John T.

2011-01-01

This research provides a demonstration of the utility of mixture Rasch models. Specifically, a model capable of estimating a mixture partial credit model using joint maximum likelihood is presented. Like the partial credit model, the mixture partial credit model has the beneficial feature of being appropriate for analysis of assessment data…

Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management: Application to Lake Oxygen Recovery Model

EPA Science Inventory

Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood e...

IRT Item Parameter Recovery with Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Loglinear Smoothing Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lewis, Charles

2015-01-01

Loglinear smoothing (LLS) estimates the latent trait distribution while making fewer assumptions about its form and maintaining parsimony, thus leading to more precise item response theory (IRT) item parameter estimates than standard marginal maximum likelihood (MML). This article provides the expectation-maximization algorithm for MML estimation…

A Study of Item Bias for Attitudinal Measurement Using Maximum Likelihood Factor Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mayberry, Paul W.

A technique for detecting item bias that is responsive to attitudinal measurement considerations is a maximum likelihood factor analysis procedure comparing multivariate factor structures across various subpopulations, often referred to as SIFASP. The SIFASP technique allows for factorial model comparisons in the testing of various hypotheses…

An EM Algorithm for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Process Factor Analysis Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Taehun

2010-01-01

In this dissertation, an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is developed and implemented to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters and the associated standard error estimates characterizing temporal flows for the latent variable time series following stationary vector ARMA processes, as well as the parameters defining the…

SCI Identification (SCIDNT) program user's guide. [maximum likelihood method for linear rotorcraft models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The computer program Linear SCIDNT which evaluates rotorcraft stability and control coefficients from flight or wind tunnel test data is described. It implements the maximum likelihood method to maximize the likelihood function of the parameters based on measured input/output time histories. Linear SCIDNT may be applied to systems modeled by linear constant-coefficient differential equations. This restriction in scope allows the application of several analytical results which simplify the computation and improve its efficiency over the general nonlinear case.

Maximum-likelihood soft-decision decoding of block codes using the A* algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ekroot, L.; Dolinar, S.

1994-01-01

The A* algorithm finds the path in a finite depth binary tree that optimizes a function. Here, it is applied to maximum-likelihood soft-decision decoding of block codes where the function optimized over the codewords is the likelihood function of the received sequence given each codeword. The algorithm considers codewords one bit at a time, making use of the most reliable received symbols first and pursuing only the partially expanded codewords that might be maximally likely. A version of the A* algorithm for maximum-likelihood decoding of block codes has been implemented for block codes up to 64 bits in length. The efficiency of this algorithm makes simulations of codes up to length 64 feasible. This article details the implementation currently in use, compares the decoding complexity with that of exhaustive search and Viterbi decoding algorithms, and presents performance curves obtained with this implementation of the A* algorithm for several codes.

A novel description of FDG excretion in the renal system: application to metformin-treated models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garbarino, S.; Caviglia, G.; Sambuceti, G.; Benvenuto, F.; Piana, M.

2014-05-01

This paper introduces a novel compartmental model describing the excretion of 18F-fluoro-deoxyglucose (FDG) in the renal system and a numerical method based on the maximum likelihood for its reduction. This approach accounts for variations in FDG concentration due to water re-absorption in renal tubules and the increase of the bladder’s volume during the FDG excretion process. From the computational viewpoint, the reconstruction of the tracer kinetic parameters is obtained by solving the maximum likelihood problem iteratively, using a non-stationary, steepest descent approach that explicitly accounts for the Poisson nature of nuclear medicine data. The reliability of the method is validated against two sets of synthetic data realized according to realistic conditions. Finally we applied this model to describe FDG excretion in the case of animal models treated with metformin. In particular we show that our approach allows the quantitative estimation of the reduction of FDG de-phosphorylation induced by metformin.

Robust Methods for Moderation Analysis with a Two-Level Regression Model.

PubMed

Yang, Miao; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2016-01-01

Moderation analysis has many applications in social sciences. Most widely used estimation methods for moderation analysis assume that errors are normally distributed and homoscedastic. When these assumptions are not met, the results from a classical moderation analysis can be misleading. For more reliable moderation analysis, this article proposes two robust methods with a two-level regression model when the predictors do not contain measurement error. One method is based on maximum likelihood with Student's t distribution and the other is based on M-estimators with Huber-type weights. An algorithm for obtaining the robust estimators is developed. Consistent estimates of standard errors of the robust estimators are provided. The robust approaches are compared against normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) with respect to power and accuracy of parameter estimates through a simulation study. Results show that the robust approaches outperform NML under various distributional conditions. Application of the robust methods is illustrated through a real data example. An R program is developed and documented to facilitate the application of the robust methods.

Statistically optimal analysis of state-discretized trajectory data from multiple thermodynamic states

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Hao; Mey, Antonia S. J. S.; Noé, Frank

2014-12-07

We propose a discrete transition-based reweighting analysis method (dTRAM) for analyzing configuration-space-discretized simulation trajectories produced at different thermodynamic states (temperatures, Hamiltonians, etc.) dTRAM provides maximum-likelihood estimates of stationary quantities (probabilities, free energies, expectation values) at any thermodynamic state. In contrast to the weighted histogram analysis method (WHAM), dTRAM does not require data to be sampled from global equilibrium, and can thus produce superior estimates for enhanced sampling data such as parallel/simulated tempering, replica exchange, umbrella sampling, or metadynamics. In addition, dTRAM provides optimal estimates of Markov state models (MSMs) from the discretized state-space trajectories at all thermodynamic states. Under suitablemore » conditions, these MSMs can be used to calculate kinetic quantities (e.g., rates, timescales). In the limit of a single thermodynamic state, dTRAM estimates a maximum likelihood reversible MSM, while in the limit of uncorrelated sampling data, dTRAM is identical to WHAM. dTRAM is thus a generalization to both estimators.« less

A Bayesian Approach to More Stable Estimates of Group-Level Effects in Contextual Studies.

PubMed

Zitzmann, Steffen; Lüdtke, Oliver; Robitzsch, Alexander

2015-01-01

Multilevel analyses are often used to estimate the effects of group-level constructs. However, when using aggregated individual data (e.g., student ratings) to assess a group-level construct (e.g., classroom climate), the observed group mean might not provide a reliable measure of the unobserved latent group mean. In the present article, we propose a Bayesian approach that can be used to estimate a multilevel latent covariate model, which corrects for the unreliable assessment of the latent group mean when estimating the group-level effect. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the choice of different priors for the group-level variance of the predictor variable and to compare the Bayesian approach with the maximum likelihood approach implemented in the software Mplus. Results showed that, under problematic conditions (i.e., small number of groups, predictor variable with a small ICC), the Bayesian approach produced more accurate estimates of the group-level effect than the maximum likelihood approach did.

An evaluation of percentile and maximum likelihood estimators of weibull paremeters

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch; Tommy R. Dell

1985-01-01

Two methods of estimating the three-parameter Weibull distribution were evaluated by computer simulation and field data comparison. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLB) with bias correction were calculated with the computer routine FITTER (Bailey 1974); percentile estimators (PCT) were those proposed by Zanakis (1979). The MLB estimators had superior smaller bias and...

Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Structural Equation Models with Multiple Interaction and Quadratic Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klein, Andreas G.; Muthen, Bengt O.

2007-01-01

In this article, a nonlinear structural equation model is introduced and a quasi-maximum likelihood method for simultaneous estimation and testing of multiple nonlinear effects is developed. The focus of the new methodology lies on efficiency, robustness, and computational practicability. Monte-Carlo studies indicate that the method is highly…

Maximum Likelihood Analysis of Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Dichotomous Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Xin-Yuan; Lee, Sik-Yum

2005-01-01

In this article, a maximum likelihood approach is developed to analyze structural equation models with dichotomous variables that are common in behavioral, psychological and social research. To assess nonlinear causal effects among the latent variables, the structural equation in the model is defined by a nonlinear function. The basic idea of the…

Unclassified Publications of Lincoln Laboratory, 1 January - 31 December 1990. Volume 16

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-31

Apr. 1990 ADA223419 Hopped Communication Systems with Nonuniform Hopping Distributions 880 Bistatic Radar Cross Section of a Fenn, A.J. 2 May1990...EXPERIMENT JA-6241 MS-8424 LUNAR PERTURBATION MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ALGORITHM JA-6241 JA-6467 LWIR SPECTRAL BAND MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATOR JA-6476 MS-8466

Expected versus Observed Information in SEM with Incomplete Normal and Nonnormal Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savalei, Victoria

2010-01-01

Maximum likelihood is the most common estimation method in structural equation modeling. Standard errors for maximum likelihood estimates are obtained from the associated information matrix, which can be estimated from the sample using either expected or observed information. It is known that, with complete data, estimates based on observed or…

Effects of Estimation Bias on Multiple-Category Classification with an IRT-Based Adaptive Classification Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Xiangdong; Poggio, John C.; Glasnapp, Douglas R.

2006-01-01

The effects of five ability estimators, that is, maximum likelihood estimator, weighted likelihood estimator, maximum a posteriori, expected a posteriori, and Owen's sequential estimator, on the performances of the item response theory-based adaptive classification procedure on multiple categories were studied via simulations. The following…

Bias and Efficiency in Structural Equation Modeling: Maximum Likelihood versus Robust Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhong, Xiaoling; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2011-01-01

In the structural equation modeling literature, the normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (ML) method is most widely used, partly because the resulting estimator is claimed to be asymptotically unbiased and most efficient. However, this may not hold when data deviate from normal distribution. Outlying cases or nonnormally distributed data,…

Five Methods for Estimating Angoff Cut Scores with IRT

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wyse, Adam E.

2017-01-01

This article illustrates five different methods for estimating Angoff cut scores using item response theory (IRT) models. These include maximum likelihood (ML), expected a priori (EAP), modal a priori (MAP), and weighted maximum likelihood (WML) estimators, as well as the most commonly used approach based on translating ratings through the test…

High-Dimensional Exploratory Item Factor Analysis by a Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro Algorithm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cai, Li

2010-01-01

A Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro (MH-RM) algorithm for high-dimensional maximum marginal likelihood exploratory item factor analysis is proposed. The sequence of estimates from the MH-RM algorithm converges with probability one to the maximum likelihood solution. Details on the computer implementation of this algorithm are provided. The…

Comparison of standard maximum likelihood classification and polytomous logistic regression used in remote sensing

Treesearch

John Hogland; Nedret Billor; Nathaniel Anderson

2013-01-01

Discriminant analysis, referred to as maximum likelihood classification within popular remote sensing software packages, is a common supervised technique used by analysts. Polytomous logistic regression (PLR), also referred to as multinomial logistic regression, is an alternative classification approach that is less restrictive, more flexible, and easy to interpret. To...

Procedure for estimating stability and control parameters from flight test data by using maximum likelihood methods employing a real-time digital system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grove, R. D.; Bowles, R. L.; Mayhew, S. C.

1972-01-01

A maximum likelihood parameter estimation procedure and program were developed for the extraction of the stability and control derivatives of aircraft from flight test data. Nonlinear six-degree-of-freedom equations describing aircraft dynamics were used to derive sensitivity equations for quasilinearization. The maximum likelihood function with quasilinearization was used to derive the parameter change equations, the covariance matrices for the parameters and measurement noise, and the performance index function. The maximum likelihood estimator was mechanized into an iterative estimation procedure utilizing a real time digital computer and graphic display system. This program was developed for 8 measured state variables and 40 parameters. Test cases were conducted with simulated data for validation of the estimation procedure and program. The program was applied to a V/STOL tilt wing aircraft, a military fighter airplane, and a light single engine airplane. The particular nonlinear equations of motion, derivation of the sensitivity equations, addition of accelerations into the algorithm, operational features of the real time digital system, and test cases are described.

Computation of nonlinear least squares estimator and maximum likelihood using principles in matrix calculus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahaboob, B.; Venkateswarlu, B.; Sankar, J. Ravi; Balasiddamuni, P.

2017-11-01

This paper uses matrix calculus techniques to obtain Nonlinear Least Squares Estimator (NLSE), Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) and Linear Pseudo model for nonlinear regression model. David Pollard and Peter Radchenko [1] explained analytic techniques to compute the NLSE. However the present research paper introduces an innovative method to compute the NLSE using principles in multivariate calculus. This study is concerned with very new optimization techniques used to compute MLE and NLSE. Anh [2] derived NLSE and MLE of a heteroscedatistic regression model. Lemcoff [3] discussed a procedure to get linear pseudo model for nonlinear regression model. In this research article a new technique is developed to get the linear pseudo model for nonlinear regression model using multivariate calculus. The linear pseudo model of Edmond Malinvaud [4] has been explained in a very different way in this paper. David Pollard et.al used empirical process techniques to study the asymptotic of the LSE (Least-squares estimation) for the fitting of nonlinear regression function in 2006. In Jae Myung [13] provided a go conceptual for Maximum likelihood estimation in his work “Tutorial on maximum likelihood estimation

Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Emphasis on Aircraft Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iliff, K. W.; Maine, R. E.

1985-01-01

Accurate modeling of flexible space structures is an important field that is currently under investigation. Parameter estimation, using methods such as maximum likelihood, is one of the ways that the model can be improved. The maximum likelihood estimator has been used to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data for many years. Most of the literature on aircraft estimation concentrates on new developments and applications, assuming familiarity with basic estimation concepts. Some of these basic concepts are presented. The maximum likelihood estimator and the aircraft equations of motion that the estimator uses are briefly discussed. The basic concepts of minimization and estimation are examined for a simple computed aircraft example. The cost functions that are to be minimized during estimation are defined and discussed. Graphic representations of the cost functions are given to help illustrate the minimization process. Finally, the basic concepts are generalized, and estimation from flight data is discussed. Specific examples of estimation of structural dynamics are included. Some of the major conclusions for the computed example are also developed for the analysis of flight data.

Comparing Different Approaches of Bias Correction for Ability Estimation in IRT Models. Research Report. ETS RR-08-13

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Yi-Hsuan; Zhang, Jinming

2008-01-01

The method of maximum-likelihood is typically applied to item response theory (IRT) models when the ability parameter is estimated while conditioning on the true item parameters. In practice, the item parameters are unknown and need to be estimated first from a calibration sample. Lewis (1985) and Zhang and Lu (2007) proposed the expected response…

When Can Categorical Variables Be Treated as Continuous? A Comparison of Robust Continuous and Categorical SEM Estimation Methods under Suboptimal Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhemtulla, Mijke; Brosseau-Liard, Patricia E.; Savalei, Victoria

2012-01-01

A simulation study compared the performance of robust normal theory maximum likelihood (ML) and robust categorical least squares (cat-LS) methodology for estimating confirmatory factor analysis models with ordinal variables. Data were generated from 2 models with 2-7 categories, 4 sample sizes, 2 latent distributions, and 5 patterns of category…

New estimates of the CMB angular power spectra from the WMAP 5 year low-resolution data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruppuso, A.; de Rosa, A.; Cabella, P.; Paci, F.; Finelli, F.; Natoli, P.; de Gasperis, G.; Mandolesi, N.

2009-11-01

A quadratic maximum likelihood (QML) estimator is applied to the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) 5 year low-resolution maps to compute the cosmic microwave background angular power spectra (APS) at large scales for both temperature and polarization. Estimates and error bars for the six APS are provided up to l = 32 and compared, when possible, to those obtained by the WMAP team, without finding any inconsistency. The conditional likelihood slices are also computed for the Cl of all the six power spectra from l = 2 to 10 through a pixel-based likelihood code. Both the codes treat the covariance for (T, Q, U) in a single matrix without employing any approximation. The inputs of both the codes (foreground-reduced maps, related covariances and masks) are provided by the WMAP team. The peaks of the likelihood slices are always consistent with the QML estimates within the error bars; however, an excellent agreement occurs when the QML estimates are used as a fiducial power spectrum instead of the best-fitting theoretical power spectrum. By the full computation of the conditional likelihood on the estimated spectra, the value of the temperature quadrupole CTTl=2 is found to be less than 2σ away from the WMAP 5 year Λ cold dark matter best-fitting value. The BB spectrum is found to be well consistent with zero, and upper limits on the B modes are provided. The parity odd signals TB and EB are found to be consistent with zero.

Computational tools for exact conditional logistic regression.

PubMed

Corcoran, C; Mehta, C; Patel, N; Senchaudhuri, P

Logistic regression analyses are often challenged by the inability of unconditional likelihood-based approximations to yield consistent, valid estimates and p-values for model parameters. This can be due to sparseness or separability in the data. Conditional logistic regression, though useful in such situations, can also be computationally unfeasible when the sample size or number of explanatory covariates is large. We review recent developments that allow efficient approximate conditional inference, including Monte Carlo sampling and saddlepoint approximations. We demonstrate through real examples that these methods enable the analysis of significantly larger and more complex data sets. We find in this investigation that for these moderately large data sets Monte Carlo seems a better alternative, as it provides unbiased estimates of the exact results and can be executed in less CPU time than can the single saddlepoint approximation. Moreover, the double saddlepoint approximation, while computationally the easiest to obtain, offers little practical advantage. It produces unreliable results and cannot be computed when a maximum likelihood solution does not exist. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Simpson's paradox - aggregating and partitioning populations in health disparities of lung cancer patients.

PubMed

Fu, P; Panneerselvam, A; Clifford, B; Dowlati, A; Ma, P C; Zeng, G; Halmos, B; Leidner, R S

2015-12-01

It is well known that non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is a heterogeneous group of diseases. Previous studies have demonstrated genetic variation among different ethnic groups in the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) in NSCLC. Research by our group and others has recently shown a lower frequency of EGFR mutations in African Americans with NSCLC, as compared to their White counterparts. In this study, we use our original study data of EGFR pathway genetics in African American NSCLC as an example to illustrate that univariate analyses based on aggregation versus partition of data leads to contradictory results, in order to emphasize the importance of controlling statistical confounding. We further investigate analytic approaches in logistic regression for data with separation, as is the case in our example data set, and apply appropriate methods to identify predictors of EGFR mutation. Our simulation shows that with separated or nearly separated data, penalized maximum likelihood (PML) produces estimates with smallest bias and approximately maintains the nominal value with statistical power equal to or better than that from maximum likelihood and exact conditional likelihood methods. Application of the PML method in our example data set shows that race and EGFR-FISH are independently significant predictors of EGFR mutation. © The Author(s) 2011.

Approximated maximum likelihood estimation in multifractal random walks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvsletten, O.; Rypdal, M.

2012-04-01

We present an approximated maximum likelihood method for the multifractal random walk processes of [E. Bacry , Phys. Rev. EPLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.64.026103 64, 026103 (2001)]. The likelihood is computed using a Laplace approximation and a truncation in the dependency structure for the latent volatility. The procedure is implemented as a package in the r computer language. Its performance is tested on synthetic data and compared to an inference approach based on the generalized method of moments. The method is applied to estimate parameters for various financial stock indices.

Maximum Likelihood Analysis of a Two-Level Nonlinear Structural Equation Model with Fixed Covariates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum; Song, Xin-Yuan

2005-01-01

In this article, a maximum likelihood (ML) approach for analyzing a rather general two-level structural equation model is developed for hierarchically structured data that are very common in educational and/or behavioral research. The proposed two-level model can accommodate nonlinear causal relations among latent variables as well as effects…

12-mode OFDM transmission using reduced-complexity maximum likelihood detection.

PubMed

Lobato, Adriana; Chen, Yingkan; Jung, Yongmin; Chen, Haoshuo; Inan, Beril; Kuschnerov, Maxim; Fontaine, Nicolas K; Ryf, Roland; Spinnler, Bernhard; Lankl, Berthold

2015-02-01

We report the transmission of 163-Gb/s MDM-QPSK-OFDM and 245-Gb/s MDM-8QAM-OFDM transmission over 74 km of few-mode fiber supporting 12 spatial and polarization modes. A low-complexity maximum likelihood detector is employed to enhance the performance of a system impaired by mode-dependent loss.

Impact of Violation of the Missing-at-Random Assumption on Full-Information Maximum Likelihood Method in Multidimensional Adaptive Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Han, Kyung T.; Guo, Fanmin

2014-01-01

The full-information maximum likelihood (FIML) method makes it possible to estimate and analyze structural equation models (SEM) even when data are partially missing, enabling incomplete data to contribute to model estimation. The cornerstone of FIML is the missing-at-random (MAR) assumption. In (unidimensional) computerized adaptive testing…

Constrained Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Two-Level Mean and Covariance Structure Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bentler, Peter M.; Liang, Jiajuan; Tang, Man-Lai; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2011-01-01

Maximum likelihood is commonly used for the estimation of model parameters in the analysis of two-level structural equation models. Constraints on model parameters could be encountered in some situations such as equal factor loadings for different factors. Linear constraints are the most common ones and they are relatively easy to handle in…

Maximum Likelihood Item Easiness Models for Test Theory without an Answer Key

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

France, Stephen L.; Batchelder, William H.

2015-01-01

Cultural consensus theory (CCT) is a data aggregation technique with many applications in the social and behavioral sciences. We describe the intuition and theory behind a set of CCT models for continuous type data using maximum likelihood inference methodology. We describe how bias parameters can be incorporated into these models. We introduce…

Computing Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Loglinear Models from Marginal Sums with Special Attention to Loglinear Item Response Theory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelderman, Henk

1992-01-01

Describes algorithms used in the computer program LOGIMO for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in loglinear models. These algorithms are also useful for the analysis of loglinear item-response theory models. Presents modified versions of the iterative proportional fitting and Newton-Raphson algorithms. Simulated data…

Applying a Weighted Maximum Likelihood Latent Trait Estimator to the Generalized Partial Credit Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Penfield, Randall D.; Bergeron, Jennifer M.

2005-01-01

This article applies a weighted maximum likelihood (WML) latent trait estimator to the generalized partial credit model (GPCM). The relevant equations required to obtain the WML estimator using the Newton-Raphson algorithm are presented, and a simulation study is described that compared the properties of the WML estimator to those of the maximum…

Recovery of Graded Response Model Parameters: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kieftenbeld, Vincent; Natesan, Prathiba

2012-01-01

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable a fully Bayesian approach to parameter estimation of item response models. In this simulation study, the authors compared the recovery of graded response model parameters using marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Gibbs sampling (MCMC) under various latent trait distributions, test lengths, and…

Maximum Likelihood Dynamic Factor Modeling for Arbitrary "N" and "T" Using SEM

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Voelkle, Manuel C.; Oud, Johan H. L.; von Oertzen, Timo; Lindenberger, Ulman

2012-01-01

This article has 3 objectives that build on each other. First, we demonstrate how to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for dynamic factor models (the direct autoregressive factor score model) with arbitrary "T" and "N" by means of structural equation modeling (SEM) and compare the approach to existing methods. Second, we go beyond standard time…

Attitude determination and calibration using a recursive maximum likelihood-based adaptive Kalman filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelly, D. A.; Fermelia, A.; Lee, G. K. F.

1990-01-01

An adaptive Kalman filter design that utilizes recursive maximum likelihood parameter identification is discussed. At the center of this design is the Kalman filter itself, which has the responsibility for attitude determination. At the same time, the identification algorithm is continually identifying the system parameters. The approach is applicable to nonlinear, as well as linear systems. This adaptive Kalman filter design has much potential for real time implementation, especially considering the fast clock speeds, cache memory and internal RAM available today. The recursive maximum likelihood algorithm is discussed in detail, with special attention directed towards its unique matrix formulation. The procedure for using the algorithm is described along with comments on how this algorithm interacts with the Kalman filter.

Maximum Likelihood Compton Polarimetry with the Compton Spectrometer and Imager

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowell, A. W.; Boggs, S. E.; Chiu, C. L.; Kierans, C. A.; Sleator, C.; Tomsick, J. A.; Zoglauer, A. C.; Chang, H.-K.; Tseng, C.-H.; Yang, C.-Y.; Jean, P.; von Ballmoos, P.; Lin, C.-H.; Amman, M.

2017-10-01

Astrophysical polarization measurements in the soft gamma-ray band are becoming more feasible as detectors with high position and energy resolution are deployed. Previous work has shown that the minimum detectable polarization (MDP) of an ideal Compton polarimeter can be improved by ˜21% when an unbinned, maximum likelihood method (MLM) is used instead of the standard approach of fitting a sinusoid to a histogram of azimuthal scattering angles. Here we outline a procedure for implementing this maximum likelihood approach for real, nonideal polarimeters. As an example, we use the recent observation of GRB 160530A with the Compton Spectrometer and Imager. We find that the MDP for this observation is reduced by 20% when the MLM is used instead of the standard method.

Bayesian Image Segmentations by Potts Prior and Loopy Belief Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Kazuyuki; Kataoka, Shun; Yasuda, Muneki; Waizumi, Yuji; Hsu, Chiou-Ting

2014-12-01

This paper presents a Bayesian image segmentation model based on Potts prior and loopy belief propagation. The proposed Bayesian model involves several terms, including the pairwise interactions of Potts models, and the average vectors and covariant matrices of Gauss distributions in color image modeling. These terms are often referred to as hyperparameters in statistical machine learning theory. In order to determine these hyperparameters, we propose a new scheme for hyperparameter estimation based on conditional maximization of entropy in the Potts prior. The algorithm is given based on loopy belief propagation. In addition, we compare our conditional maximum entropy framework with the conventional maximum likelihood framework, and also clarify how the first order phase transitions in loopy belief propagations for Potts models influence our hyperparameter estimation procedures.

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with completing failures modes: Preliminary data analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sidik, S. M.; Leibecki, H. F.; Bozek, J. M.

1980-01-01

One hundred and twenty nine cells were run through charge-discharge cycles until failure. The experiment design was a variant of a central composite factorial in five factors. Preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimation of life. Batteries fail under two basic modes; a low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition. A competing failure modes analysis using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution was performed. Extensive diagnostics such as residual plotting and probability plotting were employed to verify data quality and choice of model.

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with competing failure modes - Preliminary data analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sidik, S. M.; Leibecki, H. F.; Bozek, J. M.

1980-01-01

The data analysis of cycles to failure of silver-zinc electrochemical cells with competing failure modes is presented. The test ran 129 cells through charge-discharge cycles until failure; preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimate of life. Batteries fail through low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition; a competing failure modes analysis was made using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution. Extensive residual plotting and probability plotting were used to verify data quality and selection of model.

Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling.

PubMed

Scheike, Thomas H; Juul, Anders

2004-04-01

Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazards model. The MLE is computed by the EM-algorithm, which is easy to implement in the proportional hazards setting. Standard errors are estimated by a numerical profile likelihood approach based on EM aided differentiation. The work was motivated by a nested case-control study that hypothesized that insulin-like growth factor I was associated with ischemic heart disease. The study was based on a population of 3784 Danes and 231 cases of ischemic heart disease where controls were matched on age and gender. We illustrate the use of the MLE for these data and show how the maximum likelihood framework can be used to obtain information additional to the relative risk estimates of covariates.

Bootstrap Standard Errors for Maximum Likelihood Ability Estimates When Item Parameters Are Unknown

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patton, Jeffrey M.; Cheng, Ying; Yuan, Ke-Hai; Diao, Qi

2014-01-01

When item parameter estimates are used to estimate the ability parameter in item response models, the standard error (SE) of the ability estimate must be corrected to reflect the error carried over from item calibration. For maximum likelihood (ML) ability estimates, a corrected asymptotic SE is available, but it requires a long test and the…

DSN telemetry system performance with convolutionally coded data using operational maximum-likelihood convolutional decoders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benjauthrit, B.; Mulhall, B.; Madsen, B. D.; Alberda, M. E.

1976-01-01

The DSN telemetry system performance with convolutionally coded data using the operational maximum-likelihood convolutional decoder (MCD) being implemented in the Network is described. Data rates from 80 bps to 115.2 kbps and both S- and X-band receivers are reported. The results of both one- and two-way radio losses are included.

Recovery of Item Parameters in the Nominal Response Model: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wollack, James A.; Bolt, Daniel M.; Cohen, Allan S.; Lee, Young-Sun

2002-01-01

Compared the quality of item parameter estimates for marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with the nominal response model using simulation. The quality of item parameter recovery was nearly identical for MML and MCMC, and both methods tended to produce good estimates. (SLD)

The Construct Validity of Higher Order Structure-of-Intellect Abilities in a Battery of Tests Emphasizing the Product of Transformations: A Confirmatory Maximum Likelihood Factor Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khattab, Ali-Maher; And Others

1982-01-01

A causal modeling system, using confirmatory maximum likelihood factor analysis with the LISREL IV computer program, evaluated the construct validity underlying the higher order factor structure of a given correlation matrix of 46 structure-of-intellect tests emphasizing the product of transformations. (Author/PN)

Mortality table construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutawanir

2015-12-01

Mortality tables play important role in actuarial studies such as life annuities, premium determination, premium reserve, valuation pension plan, pension funding. Some known mortality tables are CSO mortality table, Indonesian Mortality Table, Bowers mortality table, Japan Mortality table. For actuary applications some tables are constructed with different environment such as single decrement, double decrement, and multiple decrement. There exist two approaches in mortality table construction : mathematics approach and statistical approach. Distribution model and estimation theory are the statistical concepts that are used in mortality table construction. This article aims to discuss the statistical approach in mortality table construction. The distributional assumptions are uniform death distribution (UDD) and constant force (exponential). Moment estimation and maximum likelihood are used to estimate the mortality parameter. Moment estimation methods are easier to manipulate compared to maximum likelihood estimation (mle). However, the complete mortality data are not used in moment estimation method. Maximum likelihood exploited all available information in mortality estimation. Some mle equations are complicated and solved using numerical methods. The article focus on single decrement estimation using moment and maximum likelihood estimation. Some extension to double decrement will introduced. Simple dataset will be used to illustrated the mortality estimation, and mortality table.

On non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation of the bivariate survivor function.

PubMed

Prentice, R L

The likelihood function for the bivariate survivor function F, under independent censorship, is maximized to obtain a non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator &Fcirc;. &Fcirc; may or may not be unique depending on the configuration of singly- and doubly-censored pairs. The likelihood function can be maximized by placing all mass on the grid formed by the uncensored failure times, or half lines beyond the failure time grid, or in the upper right quadrant beyond the grid. By accumulating the mass along lines (or regions) where the likelihood is flat, one obtains a partially maximized likelihood as a function of parameters that can be uniquely estimated. The score equations corresponding to these point mass parameters are derived, using a Lagrange multiplier technique to ensure unit total mass, and a modified Newton procedure is used to calculate the parameter estimates in some limited simulation studies. Some considerations for the further development of non-parametric bivariate survivor function estimators are briefly described.

Bayesian logistic regression approaches to predict incorrect DRG assignment.

PubMed

Suleiman, Mani; Demirhan, Haydar; Boyd, Leanne; Girosi, Federico; Aksakalli, Vural

2018-05-07

Episodes of care involving similar diagnoses and treatments and requiring similar levels of resource utilisation are grouped to the same Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG). In jurisdictions which implement DRG based payment systems, DRGs are a major determinant of funding for inpatient care. Hence, service providers often dedicate auditing staff to the task of checking that episodes have been coded to the correct DRG. The use of statistical models to estimate an episode's probability of DRG error can significantly improve the efficiency of clinical coding audits. This study implements Bayesian logistic regression models with weakly informative prior distributions to estimate the likelihood that episodes require a DRG revision, comparing these models with each other and to classical maximum likelihood estimates. All Bayesian approaches had more stable model parameters than maximum likelihood. The best performing Bayesian model improved overall classification per- formance by 6% compared to maximum likelihood, with a 34% gain compared to random classification, respectively. We found that the original DRG, coder and the day of coding all have a significant effect on the likelihood of DRG error. Use of Bayesian approaches has improved model parameter stability and classification accuracy. This method has already lead to improved audit efficiency in an operational capacity.

Maximum Likelihood Compton Polarimetry with the Compton Spectrometer and Imager

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowell, A. W.; Boggs, S. E; Chiu, C. L.

2017-10-20

Astrophysical polarization measurements in the soft gamma-ray band are becoming more feasible as detectors with high position and energy resolution are deployed. Previous work has shown that the minimum detectable polarization (MDP) of an ideal Compton polarimeter can be improved by ∼21% when an unbinned, maximum likelihood method (MLM) is used instead of the standard approach of fitting a sinusoid to a histogram of azimuthal scattering angles. Here we outline a procedure for implementing this maximum likelihood approach for real, nonideal polarimeters. As an example, we use the recent observation of GRB 160530A with the Compton Spectrometer and Imager. Wemore » find that the MDP for this observation is reduced by 20% when the MLM is used instead of the standard method.« less

Generalizing the Iterative Proportional Fitting Procedure.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-04-01

Csiszar gives conditions under which P (R) exists (it is always unique) and develops a geometry of I-divergence by using an analogue of Pythagoras ...8217 Theorem . As our goal is to study maximum likelihood estimation in contingency tables, we turn briefly to the problem of estimating a multinomial...envoke a result of Csiszir (due originally to Kullback (1959)), giving the form of the density of the I-projection. Csiszar’s Theorem 3.1, which we

Optimal designs based on the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator

PubMed Central

Shen, Gang; Hyun, Seung Won; Wong, Weng Kee

2016-01-01

We use optimal design theory and construct locally optimal designs based on the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator (MqLE), which is derived under less stringent conditions than those required for the MLE method. We show that the proposed locally optimal designs are asymptotically as efficient as those based on the MLE when the error distribution is from an exponential family, and they perform just as well or better than optimal designs based on any other asymptotically linear unbiased estimators such as the least square estimator (LSE). In addition, we show current algorithms for finding optimal designs can be directly used to find optimal designs based on the MqLE. As an illustrative application, we construct a variety of locally optimal designs based on the MqLE for the 4-parameter logistic (4PL) model and study their robustness properties to misspecifications in the model using asymptotic relative efficiency. The results suggest that optimal designs based on the MqLE can be easily generated and they are quite robust to mis-specification in the probability distribution of the responses. PMID:28163359

Comparing the Performance of Improved Classify-Analyze Approaches For Distal Outcomes in Latent Profile Analysis

PubMed Central

Dziak, John J.; Bray, Bethany C.; Zhang, Jieting; Zhang, Minqiang; Lanza, Stephanie T.

2016-01-01

Several approaches are available for estimating the relationship of latent class membership to distal outcomes in latent profile analysis (LPA). A three-step approach is commonly used, but has problems with estimation bias and confidence interval coverage. Proposed improvements include the correction method of Bolck, Croon, and Hagenaars (BCH; 2004), Vermunt’s (2010) maximum likelihood (ML) approach, and the inclusive three-step approach of Bray, Lanza, & Tan (2015). These methods have been studied in the related case of latent class analysis (LCA) with categorical indicators, but not as well studied for LPA with continuous indicators. We investigated the performance of these approaches in LPA with normally distributed indicators, under different conditions of distal outcome distribution, class measurement quality, relative latent class size, and strength of association between latent class and the distal outcome. The modified BCH implemented in Latent GOLD had excellent performance. The maximum likelihood and inclusive approaches were not robust to violations of distributional assumptions. These findings broadly agree with and extend the results presented by Bakk and Vermunt (2016) in the context of LCA with categorical indicators. PMID:28630602

Bayesian image reconstruction for improving detection performance of muon tomography.

PubMed

Wang, Guobao; Schultz, Larry J; Qi, Jinyi

2009-05-01

Muon tomography is a novel technology that is being developed for detecting high-Z materials in vehicles or cargo containers. Maximum likelihood methods have been developed for reconstructing the scattering density image from muon measurements. However, the instability of maximum likelihood estimation often results in noisy images and low detectability of high-Z targets. In this paper, we propose using regularization to improve the image quality of muon tomography. We formulate the muon reconstruction problem in a Bayesian framework by introducing a prior distribution on scattering density images. An iterative shrinkage algorithm is derived to maximize the log posterior distribution. At each iteration, the algorithm obtains the maximum a posteriori update by shrinking an unregularized maximum likelihood update. Inverse quadratic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Laplacian priors and inverse cubic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Gaussian priors. Receiver operating characteristic studies using simulated data demonstrate that the Bayesian reconstruction can greatly improve the detection performance of muon tomography.

Maximum likelihood density modification by pattern recognition of structural motifs

DOEpatents

Terwilliger, Thomas C.

2004-04-13

An electron density for a crystallographic structure having protein regions and solvent regions is improved by maximizing the log likelihood of a set of structures factors {F.sub.h } using a local log-likelihood function: (x)+p(.rho.(x).vertline.SOLV)p.sub.SOLV (x)+p(.rho.(x).vertline.H)p.sub.H (x)], where p.sub.PROT (x) is the probability that x is in the protein region, p(.rho.(x).vertline.PROT) is the conditional probability for .rho.(x) given that x is in the protein region, and p.sub.SOLV (x) and p(.rho.(x).vertline.SOLV) are the corresponding quantities for the solvent region, p.sub.H (x) refers to the probability that there is a structural motif at a known location, with a known orientation, in the vicinity of the point x; and p(.rho.(x).vertline.H) is the probability distribution for electron density at this point given that the structural motif actually is present. One appropriate structural motif is a helical structure within the crystallographic structure.

Comparison of wheat classification accuracy using different classifiers of the image-100 system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Chen, S. C.; Moreira, M. A.; Delima, A. M.

1981-01-01

Classification results using single-cell and multi-cell signature acquisition options, a point-by-point Gaussian maximum-likelihood classifier, and K-means clustering of the Image-100 system are presented. Conclusions reached are that: a better indication of correct classification can be provided by using a test area which contains various cover types of the study area; classification accuracy should be evaluated considering both the percentages of correct classification and error of commission; supervised classification approaches are better than K-means clustering; Gaussian distribution maximum likelihood classifier is better than Single-cell and Multi-cell Signature Acquisition Options of the Image-100 system; and in order to obtain a high classification accuracy in a large and heterogeneous crop area, using Gaussian maximum-likelihood classifier, homogeneous spectral subclasses of the study crop should be created to derive training statistics.

Computing maximum-likelihood estimates for parameters of the National Descriptive Model of Mercury in Fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donato, David I.

2012-01-01

This report presents the mathematical expressions and the computational techniques required to compute maximum-likelihood estimates for the parameters of the National Descriptive Model of Mercury in Fish (NDMMF), a statistical model used to predict the concentration of methylmercury in fish tissue. The expressions and techniques reported here were prepared to support the development of custom software capable of computing NDMMF parameter estimates more quickly and using less computer memory than is currently possible with available general-purpose statistical software. Computation of maximum-likelihood estimates for the NDMMF by numerical solution of a system of simultaneous equations through repeated Newton-Raphson iterations is described. This report explains the derivation of the mathematical expressions required for computational parameter estimation in sufficient detail to facilitate future derivations for any revised versions of the NDMMF that may be developed.

Estimating a Logistic Discrimination Functions When One of the Training Samples Is Subject to Misclassification: A Maximum Likelihood Approach.

PubMed

Nagelkerke, Nico; Fidler, Vaclav

2015-01-01

The problem of discrimination and classification is central to much of epidemiology. Here we consider the estimation of a logistic regression/discrimination function from training samples, when one of the training samples is subject to misclassification or mislabeling, e.g. diseased individuals are incorrectly classified/labeled as healthy controls. We show that this leads to zero-inflated binomial model with a defective logistic regression or discrimination function, whose parameters can be estimated using standard statistical methods such as maximum likelihood. These parameters can be used to estimate the probability of true group membership among those, possibly erroneously, classified as controls. Two examples are analyzed and discussed. A simulation study explores properties of the maximum likelihood parameter estimates and the estimates of the number of mislabeled observations.

The Inverse Problem for Confined Aquifer Flow: Identification and Estimation With Extensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loaiciga, Hugo A.; MariñO, Miguel A.

1987-01-01

The contributions of this work are twofold. First, a methodology for estimating the elements of parameter matrices in the governing equation of flow in a confined aquifer is developed. The estimation techniques for the distributed-parameter inverse problem pertain to linear least squares and generalized least squares methods. The linear relationship among the known heads and unknown parameters of the flow equation provides the background for developing criteria for determining the identifiability status of unknown parameters. Under conditions of exact or overidentification it is possible to develop statistically consistent parameter estimators and their asymptotic distributions. The estimation techniques, namely, two-stage least squares and three stage least squares, are applied to a specific groundwater inverse problem and compared between themselves and with an ordinary least squares estimator. The three-stage estimator provides the closer approximation to the actual parameter values, but it also shows relatively large standard errors as compared to the ordinary and two-stage estimators. The estimation techniques provide the parameter matrices required to simulate the unsteady groundwater flow equation. Second, a nonlinear maximum likelihood estimation approach to the inverse problem is presented. The statistical properties of maximum likelihood estimators are derived, and a procedure to construct confidence intervals and do hypothesis testing is given. The relative merits of the linear and maximum likelihood estimators are analyzed. Other topics relevant to the identification and estimation methodologies, i.e., a continuous-time solution to the flow equation, coping with noise-corrupted head measurements, and extension of the developed theory to nonlinear cases are also discussed. A simulation study is used to evaluate the methods developed in this study.

A Comparison of Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood and Asymptotically Distribution-Free Dynamic Factor Analysis Parameter Estimation in Fitting Covariance Structure Models to Block-Toeplitz Matrices Representing Single-Subject Multivariate Time-Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molenaar, Peter C. M.; Nesselroade, John R.

1998-01-01

Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (p-ML) and Asymptotically Distribution Free (ADF) estimation methods for estimating dynamic factor model parameters within a covariance structure framework were compared through a Monte Carlo simulation. Both methods appear to give consistent model parameter estimates, but only ADF gives standard errors and chi-square…

Statistical Bias in Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Item Parameters.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-04-01

34 a> E r’r~e r ,C Ie I# ne,..,.rVi rnd Id.,flfv b1 - bindk numb.r) I; ,t-i i-cd I ’ tiie bias in the maximum likelihood ,st i- i;, ’ t iIeiIrs in...NTC, IL 60088 Psychometric Laboratory University of North Carolina I ERIC Facility-Acquisitions Davie Hall 013A 4833 Rugby Avenue Chapel Hill, NC

On the Performance of Maximum Likelihood versus Means and Variance Adjusted Weighted Least Squares Estimation in CFA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beauducel, Andre; Herzberg, Philipp Yorck

2006-01-01

This simulation study compared maximum likelihood (ML) estimation with weighted least squares means and variance adjusted (WLSMV) estimation. The study was based on confirmatory factor analyses with 1, 2, 4, and 8 factors, based on 250, 500, 750, and 1,000 cases, and on 5, 10, 20, and 40 variables with 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 categories. There was no…

Climate reconstruction analysis using coexistence likelihood estimation (CRACLE): a method for the estimation of climate using vegetation.

PubMed

Harbert, Robert S; Nixon, Kevin C

2015-08-01

• Plant distributions have long been understood to be correlated with the environmental conditions to which species are adapted. Climate is one of the major components driving species distributions. Therefore, it is expected that the plants coexisting in a community are reflective of the local environment, particularly climate.• Presented here is a method for the estimation of climate from local plant species coexistence data. The method, Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation (CRACLE), is a likelihood-based method that employs specimen collection data at a global scale for the inference of species climate tolerance. CRACLE calculates the maximum joint likelihood of coexistence given individual species climate tolerance characterization to estimate the expected climate.• Plant distribution data for more than 4000 species were used to show that this method accurately infers expected climate profiles for 165 sites with diverse climatic conditions. Estimates differ from the WorldClim global climate model by less than 1.5°C on average for mean annual temperature and less than ∼250 mm for mean annual precipitation. This is a significant improvement upon other plant-based climate-proxy methods.• CRACLE validates long hypothesized interactions between climate and local associations of plant species. Furthermore, CRACLE successfully estimates climate that is consistent with the widely used WorldClim model and therefore may be applied to the quantitative estimation of paleoclimate in future studies. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

A Solution to Separation and Multicollinearity in Multiple Logistic Regression

PubMed Central

Shen, Jianzhao; Gao, Sujuan

2010-01-01

In dementia screening tests, item selection for shortening an existing screening test can be achieved using multiple logistic regression. However, maximum likelihood estimates for such logistic regression models often experience serious bias or even non-existence because of separation and multicollinearity problems resulting from a large number of highly correlated items. Firth (1993, Biometrika, 80(1), 27–38) proposed a penalized likelihood estimator for generalized linear models and it was shown to reduce bias and the non-existence problems. The ridge regression has been used in logistic regression to stabilize the estimates in cases of multicollinearity. However, neither solves the problems for each other. In this paper, we propose a double penalized maximum likelihood estimator combining Firth’s penalized likelihood equation with a ridge parameter. We present a simulation study evaluating the empirical performance of the double penalized likelihood estimator in small to moderate sample sizes. We demonstrate the proposed approach using a current screening data from a community-based dementia study. PMID:20376286

A Solution to Separation and Multicollinearity in Multiple Logistic Regression.

PubMed

Shen, Jianzhao; Gao, Sujuan

2008-10-01

In dementia screening tests, item selection for shortening an existing screening test can be achieved using multiple logistic regression. However, maximum likelihood estimates for such logistic regression models often experience serious bias or even non-existence because of separation and multicollinearity problems resulting from a large number of highly correlated items. Firth (1993, Biometrika, 80(1), 27-38) proposed a penalized likelihood estimator for generalized linear models and it was shown to reduce bias and the non-existence problems. The ridge regression has been used in logistic regression to stabilize the estimates in cases of multicollinearity. However, neither solves the problems for each other. In this paper, we propose a double penalized maximum likelihood estimator combining Firth's penalized likelihood equation with a ridge parameter. We present a simulation study evaluating the empirical performance of the double penalized likelihood estimator in small to moderate sample sizes. We demonstrate the proposed approach using a current screening data from a community-based dementia study.

Empirical Likelihood in Nonignorable Covariate-Missing Data Problems.

PubMed

Xie, Yanmei; Zhang, Biao

2017-04-20

Missing covariate data occurs often in regression analysis, which frequently arises in the health and social sciences as well as in survey sampling. We study methods for the analysis of a nonignorable covariate-missing data problem in an assumed conditional mean function when some covariates are completely observed but other covariates are missing for some subjects. We adopt the semiparametric perspective of Bartlett et al. (Improving upon the efficiency of complete case analysis when covariates are MNAR. Biostatistics 2014;15:719-30) on regression analyses with nonignorable missing covariates, in which they have introduced the use of two working models, the working probability model of missingness and the working conditional score model. In this paper, we study an empirical likelihood approach to nonignorable covariate-missing data problems with the objective of effectively utilizing the two working models in the analysis of covariate-missing data. We propose a unified approach to constructing a system of unbiased estimating equations, where there are more equations than unknown parameters of interest. One useful feature of these unbiased estimating equations is that they naturally incorporate the incomplete data into the data analysis, making it possible to seek efficient estimation of the parameter of interest even when the working regression function is not specified to be the optimal regression function. We apply the general methodology of empirical likelihood to optimally combine these unbiased estimating equations. We propose three maximum empirical likelihood estimators of the underlying regression parameters and compare their efficiencies with other existing competitors. We present a simulation study to compare the finite-sample performance of various methods with respect to bias, efficiency, and robustness to model misspecification. The proposed empirical likelihood method is also illustrated by an analysis of a data set from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).

Maximum likelihood estimation of signal detection model parameters for the assessment of two-stage diagnostic strategies.

PubMed

Lirio, R B; Dondériz, I C; Pérez Abalo, M C

1992-08-01

The methodology of Receiver Operating Characteristic curves based on the signal detection model is extended to evaluate the accuracy of two-stage diagnostic strategies. A computer program is developed for the maximum likelihood estimation of parameters that characterize the sensitivity and specificity of two-stage classifiers according to this extended methodology. Its use is briefly illustrated with data collected in a two-stage screening for auditory defects.

Computing Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Loglinear Models from Marginal Sums with Special Attention to Loglinear Item Response Theory. [Project Psychometric Aspects of Item Banking No. 53.] Research Report 91-1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelderman, Henk

In this paper, algorithms are described for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in log-linear models. Modified versions of the iterative proportional fitting and Newton-Raphson algorithms are described that work on the minimal sufficient statistics rather than on the usual counts in the full contingency table. This is…

Maximum Likelihood Item Easiness Models for Test Theory Without an Answer Key

PubMed Central

Batchelder, William H.

2014-01-01

Cultural consensus theory (CCT) is a data aggregation technique with many applications in the social and behavioral sciences. We describe the intuition and theory behind a set of CCT models for continuous type data using maximum likelihood inference methodology. We describe how bias parameters can be incorporated into these models. We introduce two extensions to the basic model in order to account for item rating easiness/difficulty. The first extension is a multiplicative model and the second is an additive model. We show how the multiplicative model is related to the Rasch model. We describe several maximum-likelihood estimation procedures for the models and discuss issues of model fit and identifiability. We describe how the CCT models could be used to give alternative consensus-based measures of reliability. We demonstrate the utility of both the basic and extended models on a set of essay rating data and give ideas for future research. PMID:29795812

Maximum likelihood estimation of label imperfections and its use in the identification of mislabeled patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chittineni, C. B.

1979-01-01

The problem of estimating label imperfections and the use of the estimation in identifying mislabeled patterns is presented. Expressions for the maximum likelihood estimates of classification errors and a priori probabilities are derived from the classification of a set of labeled patterns. Expressions also are given for the asymptotic variances of probability of correct classification and proportions. Simple models are developed for imperfections in the labels and for classification errors and are used in the formulation of a maximum likelihood estimation scheme. Schemes are presented for the identification of mislabeled patterns in terms of threshold on the discriminant functions for both two-class and multiclass cases. Expressions are derived for the probability that the imperfect label identification scheme will result in a wrong decision and are used in computing thresholds. The results of practical applications of these techniques in the processing of remotely sensed multispectral data are presented.

Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.

PubMed

Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus

2015-08-01

Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach.

A comparison of maximum likelihood and other estimators of eigenvalues from several correlated Monte Carlo samples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beer, M.

1980-12-01

The maximum likelihood method for the multivariate normal distribution is applied to the case of several individual eigenvalues. Correlated Monte Carlo estimates of the eigenvalue are assumed to follow this prescription and aspects of the assumption are examined. Monte Carlo cell calculations using the SAM-CE and VIM codes for the TRX-1 and TRX-2 benchmark reactors, and SAM-CE full core results are analyzed with this method. Variance reductions of a few percent to a factor of 2 are obtained from maximum likelihood estimation as compared with the simple average and the minimum variance individual eigenvalue. The numerical results verify that themore » use of sample variances and correlation coefficients in place of the corresponding population statistics still leads to nearly minimum variance estimation for a sufficient number of histories and aggregates.« less

A Gateway for Phylogenetic Analysis Powered by Grid Computing Featuring GARLI 2.0

PubMed Central

Bazinet, Adam L.; Zwickl, Derrick J.; Cummings, Michael P.

2014-01-01

We introduce molecularevolution.org, a publicly available gateway for high-throughput, maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis powered by grid computing. The gateway features a garli 2.0 web service that enables a user to quickly and easily submit thousands of maximum likelihood tree searches or bootstrap searches that are executed in parallel on distributed computing resources. The garli web service allows one to easily specify partitioned substitution models using a graphical interface, and it performs sophisticated post-processing of phylogenetic results. Although the garli web service has been used by the research community for over three years, here we formally announce the availability of the service, describe its capabilities, highlight new features and recent improvements, and provide details about how the grid system efficiently delivers high-quality phylogenetic results. [garli, gateway, grid computing, maximum likelihood, molecular evolution portal, phylogenetics, web service.] PMID:24789072

Profile-Likelihood Approach for Estimating Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Factor Structures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeon, Minjeong; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

2012-01-01

In this article, the authors suggest a profile-likelihood approach for estimating complex models by maximum likelihood (ML) using standard software and minimal programming. The method works whenever setting some of the parameters of the model to known constants turns the model into a standard model. An important class of models that can be…

Dual-Particle Imaging System with Neutron Spectroscopy for Safeguard Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hamel, Michael C.; Weber, Thomas M.

2017-11-01

A dual-particle imager (DPI) has been designed that is capable of detecting gamma-ray and neutron signatures from shielded SNM. The system combines liquid organic and NaI(Tl) scintillators to form a combined Compton and neutron scatter camera. Effective image reconstruction of detected particles is a crucial component for maximizing the performance of the system; however, a key deficiency exists in the widely used iterative list-mode maximum-likelihood estimation-maximization (MLEM) image reconstruction technique. For MLEM a stopping condition is required to achieve a good quality solution but these conditions fail to achieve maximum image quality. Stochastic origin ensembles (SOE) imaging is a goodmore » candidate to address this problem as it uses Markov chain Monte Carlo to reach a stochastic steady-state solution. The application of SOE to the DPI is presented in this work.« less

Probabilistic properties of the date of maximum river flow, an approach based on circular statistics in lowland, highland and mountainous catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutkowska, Agnieszka; Kohnová, Silvia; Banasik, Kazimierz

2018-04-01

Probabilistic properties of dates of winter, summer and annual maximum flows were studied using circular statistics in three catchments differing in topographic conditions; a lowland, highland and mountainous catchment. The circular measures of location and dispersion were used in the long-term samples of dates of maxima. The mixture of von Mises distributions was assumed as the theoretical distribution function of the date of winter, summer and annual maximum flow. The number of components was selected on the basis of the corrected Akaike Information Criterion and the parameters were estimated by means of the Maximum Likelihood method. The goodness of fit was assessed using both the correlation between quantiles and a version of the Kuiper's and Watson's test. Results show that the number of components varied between catchments and it was different for seasonal and annual maxima. Differences between catchments in circular characteristics were explained using climatic factors such as precipitation and temperature. Further studies may include circular grouping catchments based on similarity between distribution functions and the linkage between dates of maximum precipitation and maximum flow.

On the log-normality of historical magnetic-storm intensity statistics: implications for extreme-event probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Riley, Pete

2015-01-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to −Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, −Dst≥850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42,2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a −Dst≥880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490,1187] nT.

Maximum likelihood convolutional decoding (MCD) performance due to system losses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webster, L.

1976-01-01

A model for predicting the computational performance of a maximum likelihood convolutional decoder (MCD) operating in a noisy carrier reference environment is described. This model is used to develop a subroutine that will be utilized by the Telemetry Analysis Program to compute the MCD bit error rate. When this computational model is averaged over noisy reference phase errors using a high-rate interpolation scheme, the results are found to agree quite favorably with experimental measurements.

Maximum Likelihood Shift Estimation Using High Resolution Polarimetric SAR Clutter Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harant, Olivier; Bombrun, Lionel; Vasile, Gabriel; Ferro-Famil, Laurent; Gay, Michel

2011-03-01

This paper deals with a Maximum Likelihood (ML) shift estimation method in the context of High Resolution (HR) Polarimetric SAR (PolSAR) clutter. Texture modeling is exposed and the generalized ML texture tracking method is extended to the merging of various sensors. Some results on displacement estimation on the Argentiere glacier in the Mont Blanc massif using dual-pol TerraSAR-X (TSX) and quad-pol RADARSAT-2 (RS2) sensors are finally discussed.

Maximum likelihood estimates, from censored data, for mixed-Weibull distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Siyuan; Kececioglu, Dimitri

1992-06-01

A new algorithm for estimating the parameters of mixed-Weibull distributions from censored data is presented. The algorithm follows the principle of maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) through the expectation and maximization (EM) algorithm, and it is derived for both postmortem and nonpostmortem time-to-failure data. It is concluded that the concept of the EM algorithm is easy to understand and apply (only elementary statistics and calculus are required). The log-likelihood function cannot decrease after an EM sequence; this important feature was observed in all of the numerical calculations. The MLEs of the nonpostmortem data were obtained successfully for mixed-Weibull distributions with up to 14 parameters in a 5-subpopulation, mixed-Weibull distribution. Numerical examples indicate that some of the log-likelihood functions of the mixed-Weibull distributions have multiple local maxima; therefore, the algorithm should start at several initial guesses of the parameter set.

Estimation in a discrete tail rate family of recapture sampling models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Rajan; Lee, Larry D.

1990-01-01

In the context of recapture sampling design for debugging experiments the problem of estimating the error or hitting rate of the faults remaining in a system is considered. Moment estimators are derived for a family of models in which the rate parameters are assumed proportional to the tail probabilities of a discrete distribution on the positive integers. The estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal and fully efficient. Their fixed sample properties are compared, through simulation, with those of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators.

Simple Penalties on Maximum-Likelihood Estimates of Genetic Parameters to Reduce Sampling Variation

PubMed Central

Meyer, Karin

2016-01-01

Multivariate estimates of genetic parameters are subject to substantial sampling variation, especially for smaller data sets and more than a few traits. A simple modification of standard, maximum-likelihood procedures for multivariate analyses to estimate genetic covariances is described, which can improve estimates by substantially reducing their sampling variances. This is achieved by maximizing the likelihood subject to a penalty. Borrowing from Bayesian principles, we propose a mild, default penalty—derived assuming a Beta distribution of scale-free functions of the covariance components to be estimated—rather than laboriously attempting to determine the stringency of penalization from the data. An extensive simulation study is presented, demonstrating that such penalties can yield very worthwhile reductions in loss, i.e., the difference from population values, for a wide range of scenarios and without distorting estimates of phenotypic covariances. Moreover, mild default penalties tend not to increase loss in difficult cases and, on average, achieve reductions in loss of similar magnitude to computationally demanding schemes to optimize the degree of penalization. Pertinent details required for the adaptation of standard algorithms to locate the maximum of the likelihood function are outlined. PMID:27317681

Maximum Likelihood Estimations and EM Algorithms with Length-biased Data

PubMed Central

Qin, Jing; Ning, Jing; Liu, Hao; Shen, Yu

2012-01-01

SUMMARY Length-biased sampling has been well recognized in economics, industrial reliability, etiology applications, epidemiological, genetic and cancer screening studies. Length-biased right-censored data have a unique data structure different from traditional survival data. The nonparametric and semiparametric estimations and inference methods for traditional survival data are not directly applicable for length-biased right-censored data. We propose new expectation-maximization algorithms for estimations based on full likelihoods involving infinite dimensional parameters under three settings for length-biased data: estimating nonparametric distribution function, estimating nonparametric hazard function under an increasing failure rate constraint, and jointly estimating baseline hazards function and the covariate coefficients under the Cox proportional hazards model. Extensive empirical simulation studies show that the maximum likelihood estimators perform well with moderate sample sizes and lead to more efficient estimators compared to the estimating equation approaches. The proposed estimates are also more robust to various right-censoring mechanisms. We prove the strong consistency properties of the estimators, and establish the asymptotic normality of the semi-parametric maximum likelihood estimators under the Cox model using modern empirical processes theory. We apply the proposed methods to a prevalent cohort medical study. Supplemental materials are available online. PMID:22323840

A New Online Calibration Method Based on Lord's Bias-Correction.

PubMed

He, Yinhong; Chen, Ping; Li, Yong; Zhang, Shumei

2017-09-01

Online calibration technique has been widely employed to calibrate new items due to its advantages. Method A is the simplest online calibration method and has attracted many attentions from researchers recently. However, a key assumption of Method A is that it treats person-parameter estimates θ ^ s (obtained by maximum likelihood estimation [MLE]) as their true values θ s , thus the deviation of the estimated θ ^ s from their true values might yield inaccurate item calibration when the deviation is nonignorable. To improve the performance of Method A, a new method, MLE-LBCI-Method A, is proposed. This new method combines a modified Lord's bias-correction method (named as maximum likelihood estimation-Lord's bias-correction with iteration [MLE-LBCI]) with the original Method A in an effort to correct the deviation of θ ^ s which may adversely affect the item calibration precision. Two simulation studies were carried out to explore the performance of both MLE-LBCI and MLE-LBCI-Method A under several scenarios. Simulation results showed that MLE-LBCI could make a significant improvement over the ML ability estimates, and MLE-LBCI-Method A did outperform Method A in almost all experimental conditions.

Vector Antenna and Maximum Likelihood Imaging for Radio Astronomy

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-05

Maximum Likelihood Imaging for Radio Astronomy Mary Knapp1, Frank Robey2, Ryan Volz3, Frank Lind3, Alan Fenn2, Alex Morris2, Mark Silver2, Sarah Klein2...haystack.mit.edu Abstract1— Radio astronomy using frequencies less than ~100 MHz provides a window into non-thermal processes in objects ranging from planets...observational astronomy . Ground-based observatories including LOFAR [1], LWA [2], [3], MWA [4], and the proposed SKA-Low [5], [6] are improving access to

A maximum pseudo-profile likelihood estimator for the Cox model under length-biased sampling

PubMed Central

Huang, Chiung-Yu; Qin, Jing; Follmann, Dean A.

2012-01-01

This paper considers semiparametric estimation of the Cox proportional hazards model for right-censored and length-biased data arising from prevalent sampling. To exploit the special structure of length-biased sampling, we propose a maximum pseudo-profile likelihood estimator, which can handle time-dependent covariates and is consistent under covariate-dependent censoring. Simulation studies show that the proposed estimator is more efficient than its competitors. A data analysis illustrates the methods and theory. PMID:23843659

The effect of lossy image compression on image classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paola, Justin D.; Schowengerdt, Robert A.

1995-01-01

We have classified four different images, under various levels of JPEG compression, using the following classification algorithms: minimum-distance, maximum-likelihood, and neural network. The training site accuracy and percent difference from the original classification were tabulated for each image compression level, with maximum-likelihood showing the poorest results. In general, as compression ratio increased, the classification retained its overall appearance, but much of the pixel-to-pixel detail was eliminated. We also examined the effect of compression on spatial pattern detection using a neural network.

A Poisson Log-Normal Model for Constructing Gene Covariation Network Using RNA-seq Data.

PubMed

Choi, Yoonha; Coram, Marc; Peng, Jie; Tang, Hua

2017-07-01

Constructing expression networks using transcriptomic data is an effective approach for studying gene regulation. A popular approach for constructing such a network is based on the Gaussian graphical model (GGM), in which an edge between a pair of genes indicates that the expression levels of these two genes are conditionally dependent, given the expression levels of all other genes. However, GGMs are not appropriate for non-Gaussian data, such as those generated in RNA-seq experiments. We propose a novel statistical framework that maximizes a penalized likelihood, in which the observed count data follow a Poisson log-normal distribution. To overcome the computational challenges, we use Laplace's method to approximate the likelihood and its gradients, and apply the alternating directions method of multipliers to find the penalized maximum likelihood estimates. The proposed method is evaluated and compared with GGMs using both simulated and real RNA-seq data. The proposed method shows improved performance in detecting edges that represent covarying pairs of genes, particularly for edges connecting low-abundant genes and edges around regulatory hubs.

THESEUS: maximum likelihood superpositioning and analysis of macromolecular structures

PubMed Central

Theobald, Douglas L.; Wuttke, Deborah S.

2008-01-01

Summary THESEUS is a command line program for performing maximum likelihood (ML) superpositions and analysis of macromolecular structures. While conventional superpositioning methods use ordinary least-squares (LS) as the optimization criterion, ML superpositions provide substantially improved accuracy by down-weighting variable structural regions and by correcting for correlations among atoms. ML superpositioning is robust and insensitive to the specific atoms included in the analysis, and thus it does not require subjective pruning of selected variable atomic coordinates. Output includes both likelihood-based and frequentist statistics for accurate evaluation of the adequacy of a superposition and for reliable analysis of structural similarities and differences. THESEUS performs principal components analysis for analyzing the complex correlations found among atoms within a structural ensemble. PMID:16777907

Maximum Likelihood Analysis in the PEN Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehman, Martin

2013-10-01

The experimental determination of the π+ -->e+ ν (γ) decay branching ratio currently provides the most accurate test of lepton universality. The PEN experiment at PSI, Switzerland, aims to improve the present world average experimental precision of 3 . 3 ×10-3 to 5 ×10-4 using a stopped beam approach. During runs in 2008-10, PEN has acquired over 2 ×107 πe 2 events. The experiment includes active beam detectors (degrader, mini TPC, target), central MWPC tracking with plastic scintillator hodoscopes, and a spherical pure CsI electromagnetic shower calorimeter. The final branching ratio will be calculated using a maximum likelihood analysis. This analysis assigns each event a probability for 5 processes (π+ -->e+ ν , π+ -->μ+ ν , decay-in-flight, pile-up, and hadronic events) using Monte Carlo verified probability distribution functions of our observables (energies, times, etc). A progress report on the PEN maximum likelihood analysis will be presented. Work supported by NSF grant PHY-0970013.

The Extended-Image Tracking Technique Based on the Maximum Likelihood Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsou, Haiping; Yan, Tsun-Yee

2000-01-01

This paper describes an extended-image tracking technique based on the maximum likelihood estimation. The target image is assume to have a known profile covering more than one element of a focal plane detector array. It is assumed that the relative position between the imager and the target is changing with time and the received target image has each of its pixels disturbed by an independent additive white Gaussian noise. When a rotation-invariant movement between imager and target is considered, the maximum likelihood based image tracking technique described in this paper is a closed-loop structure capable of providing iterative update of the movement estimate by calculating the loop feedback signals from a weighted correlation between the currently received target image and the previously estimated reference image in the transform domain. The movement estimate is then used to direct the imager to closely follow the moving target. This image tracking technique has many potential applications, including free-space optical communications and astronomy where accurate and stabilized optical pointing is essential.

A maximum likelihood algorithm for genome mapping of cytogenetic loci from meiotic configuration data.

PubMed Central

Reyes-Valdés, M H; Stelly, D M

1995-01-01

Frequencies of meiotic configurations in cytogenetic stocks are dependent on chiasma frequencies in segments defined by centromeres, breakpoints, and telomeres. The expectation maximization algorithm is proposed as a general method to perform maximum likelihood estimations of the chiasma frequencies in the intervals between such locations. The estimates can be translated via mapping functions into genetic maps of cytogenetic landmarks. One set of observational data was analyzed to exemplify application of these methods, results of which were largely concordant with other comparable data. The method was also tested by Monte Carlo simulation of frequencies of meiotic configurations from a monotelodisomic translocation heterozygote, assuming six different sample sizes. The estimate averages were always close to the values given initially to the parameters. The maximum likelihood estimation procedures can be extended readily to other kinds of cytogenetic stocks and allow the pooling of diverse cytogenetic data to collectively estimate lengths of segments, arms, and chromosomes. Images Fig. 1 PMID:7568226

Comparisons of neural networks to standard techniques for image classification and correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paola, Justin D.; Schowengerdt, Robert A.

1994-01-01

Neural network techniques for multispectral image classification and spatial pattern detection are compared to the standard techniques of maximum-likelihood classification and spatial correlation. The neural network produced a more accurate classification than maximum-likelihood of a Landsat scene of Tucson, Arizona. Some of the errors in the maximum-likelihood classification are illustrated using decision region and class probability density plots. As expected, the main drawback to the neural network method is the long time required for the training stage. The network was trained using several different hidden layer sizes to optimize both the classification accuracy and training speed, and it was found that one node per class was optimal. The performance improved when 3x3 local windows of image data were entered into the net. This modification introduces texture into the classification without explicit calculation of a texture measure. Larger windows were successfully used for the detection of spatial features in Landsat and Magellan synthetic aperture radar imagery.

Handling Missing Data With Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling and Full Information Maximum Likelihood Techniques.

PubMed

Schminkey, Donna L; von Oertzen, Timo; Bullock, Linda

2016-08-01

With increasing access to population-based data and electronic health records for secondary analysis, missing data are common. In the social and behavioral sciences, missing data frequently are handled with multiple imputation methods or full information maximum likelihood (FIML) techniques, but healthcare researchers have not embraced these methodologies to the same extent and more often use either traditional imputation techniques or complete case analysis, which can compromise power and introduce unintended bias. This article is a review of options for handling missing data, concluding with a case study demonstrating the utility of multilevel structural equation modeling using full information maximum likelihood (MSEM with FIML) to handle large amounts of missing data. MSEM with FIML is a parsimonious and hypothesis-driven strategy to cope with large amounts of missing data without compromising power or introducing bias. This technique is relevant for nurse researchers faced with ever-increasing amounts of electronic data and decreasing research budgets. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

DECONV-TOOL: An IDL based deconvolution software package

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Varosi, F.; Landsman, W. B.

1992-01-01

There are a variety of algorithms for deconvolution of blurred images, each having its own criteria or statistic to be optimized in order to estimate the original image data. Using the Interactive Data Language (IDL), we have implemented the Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Entropy, Maximum Residual Likelihood, and sigma-CLEAN algorithms in a unified environment called DeConv_Tool. Most of the algorithms have as their goal the optimization of statistics such as standard deviation and mean of residuals. Shannon entropy, log-likelihood, and chi-square of the residual auto-correlation are computed by DeConv_Tool for the purpose of determining the performance and convergence of any particular method and comparisons between methods. DeConv_Tool allows interactive monitoring of the statistics and the deconvolved image during computation. The final results, and optionally, the intermediate results, are stored in a structure convenient for comparison between methods and review of the deconvolution computation. The routines comprising DeConv_Tool are available via anonymous FTP through the IDL Astronomy User's Library.

F-8C adaptive flight control laws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, G. L.; Harvey, C. A.; Stein, G.; Carlson, D. N.; Hendrick, R. C.

1977-01-01

Three candidate digital adaptive control laws were designed for NASA's F-8C digital flyby wire aircraft. Each design used the same control laws but adjusted the gains with a different adaptative algorithm. The three adaptive concepts were: high-gain limit cycle, Liapunov-stable model tracking, and maximum likelihood estimation. Sensors were restricted to conventional inertial instruments (rate gyros and accelerometers) without use of air-data measurements. Performance, growth potential, and computer requirements were used as criteria for selecting the most promising of these candidates for further refinement. The maximum likelihood concept was selected primarily because it offers the greatest potential for identifying several aircraft parameters and hence for improved control performance in future aircraft application. In terms of identification and gain adjustment accuracy, the MLE design is slightly superior to the other two, but this has no significant effects on the control performance achievable with the F-8C aircraft. The maximum likelihood design is recommended for flight test, and several refinements to that design are proposed.

Free-form Airfoil Shape Optimization Under Uncertainty Using Maximum Expected Value and Second-order Second-moment Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huyse, Luc; Bushnell, Dennis M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Free-form shape optimization of airfoils poses unexpected difficulties. Practical experience has indicated that a deterministic optimization for discrete operating conditions can result in dramatically inferior performance when the actual operating conditions are different from the - somewhat arbitrary - design values used for the optimization. Extensions to multi-point optimization have proven unable to adequately remedy this problem of "localized optimization" near the sampled operating conditions. This paper presents an intrinsically statistical approach and demonstrates how the shortcomings of multi-point optimization with respect to "localized optimization" can be overcome. The practical examples also reveal how the relative likelihood of each of the operating conditions is automatically taken into consideration during the optimization process. This is a key advantage over the use of multipoint methods.

A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Determine Sensor Radiometric Response Coefficients for NPP VIIRS Reflective Solar Bands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lei, Ning; Chiang, Kwo-Fu; Oudrari, Hassan; Xiong, Xiaoxiong

2011-01-01

Optical sensors aboard Earth orbiting satellites such as the next generation Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) assume that the sensors radiometric response in the Reflective Solar Bands (RSB) is described by a quadratic polynomial, in relating the aperture spectral radiance to the sensor Digital Number (DN) readout. For VIIRS Flight Unit 1, the coefficients are to be determined before launch by an attenuation method, although the linear coefficient will be further determined on-orbit through observing the Solar Diffuser. In determining the quadratic polynomial coefficients by the attenuation method, a Maximum Likelihood approach is applied in carrying out the least-squares procedure. Crucial to the Maximum Likelihood least-squares procedure is the computation of the weight. The weight not only has a contribution from the noise of the sensor s digital count, with an important contribution from digitization error, but also is affected heavily by the mathematical expression used to predict the value of the dependent variable, because both the independent and the dependent variables contain random noise. In addition, model errors have a major impact on the uncertainties of the coefficients. The Maximum Likelihood approach demonstrates the inadequacy of the attenuation method model with a quadratic polynomial for the retrieved spectral radiance. We show that using the inadequate model dramatically increases the uncertainties of the coefficients. We compute the coefficient values and their uncertainties, considering both measurement and model errors.

Inferring Phylogenetic Networks Using PhyloNet.

PubMed

Wen, Dingqiao; Yu, Yun; Zhu, Jiafan; Nakhleh, Luay

2018-07-01

PhyloNet was released in 2008 as a software package for representing and analyzing phylogenetic networks. At the time of its release, the main functionalities in PhyloNet consisted of measures for comparing network topologies and a single heuristic for reconciling gene trees with a species tree. Since then, PhyloNet has grown significantly. The software package now includes a wide array of methods for inferring phylogenetic networks from data sets of unlinked loci while accounting for both reticulation (e.g., hybridization) and incomplete lineage sorting. In particular, PhyloNet now allows for maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference of phylogenetic networks from gene tree estimates. Furthermore, Bayesian inference directly from sequence data (sequence alignments or biallelic markers) is implemented. Maximum parsimony is based on an extension of the "minimizing deep coalescences" criterion to phylogenetic networks, whereas maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference are based on the multispecies network coalescent. All methods allow for multiple individuals per species. As computing the likelihood of a phylogenetic network is computationally hard, PhyloNet allows for evaluation and inference of networks using a pseudolikelihood measure. PhyloNet summarizes the results of the various analyzes and generates phylogenetic networks in the extended Newick format that is readily viewable by existing visualization software.

Validation of the alternating conditional estimation algorithm for estimation of flexible extensions of Cox's proportional hazards model with nonlinear constraints on the parameters.

PubMed

Wynant, Willy; Abrahamowicz, Michal

2016-11-01

Standard optimization algorithms for maximizing likelihood may not be applicable to the estimation of those flexible multivariable models that are nonlinear in their parameters. For applications where the model's structure permits separating estimation of mutually exclusive subsets of parameters into distinct steps, we propose the alternating conditional estimation (ACE) algorithm. We validate the algorithm, in simulations, for estimation of two flexible extensions of Cox's proportional hazards model where the standard maximum partial likelihood estimation does not apply, with simultaneous modeling of (1) nonlinear and time-dependent effects of continuous covariates on the hazard, and (2) nonlinear interaction and main effects of the same variable. We also apply the algorithm in real-life analyses to estimate nonlinear and time-dependent effects of prognostic factors for mortality in colon cancer. Analyses of both simulated and real-life data illustrate good statistical properties of the ACE algorithm and its ability to yield new potentially useful insights about the data structure. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Regression estimators for generic health-related quality of life and quality-adjusted life years.

PubMed

Basu, Anirban; Manca, Andrea

2012-01-01

To develop regression models for outcomes with truncated supports, such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data, and account for features typical of such data such as a skewed distribution, spikes at 1 or 0, and heteroskedasticity. Regression estimators based on features of the Beta distribution. First, both a single equation and a 2-part model are presented, along with estimation algorithms based on maximum-likelihood, quasi-likelihood, and Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods. A novel Bayesian quasi-likelihood estimator is proposed. Second, a simulation exercise is presented to assess the performance of the proposed estimators against ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for a variety of HRQoL distributions that are encountered in practice. Finally, the performance of the proposed estimators is assessed by using them to quantify the treatment effect on QALYs in the EVALUATE hysterectomy trial. Overall model fit is studied using several goodness-of-fit tests such as Pearson's correlation test, link and reset tests, and a modified Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The simulation results indicate that the proposed methods are more robust in estimating covariate effects than OLS, especially when the effects are large or the HRQoL distribution has a large spike at 1. Quasi-likelihood techniques are more robust than maximum likelihood estimators. When applied to the EVALUATE trial, all but the maximum likelihood estimators produce unbiased estimates of the treatment effect. One and 2-part Beta regression models provide flexible approaches to regress the outcomes with truncated supports, such as HRQoL, on covariates, after accounting for many idiosyncratic features of the outcomes distribution. This work will provide applied researchers with a practical set of tools to model outcomes in cost-effectiveness analysis.

Parameter estimation of history-dependent leaky integrate-and-fire neurons using maximum-likelihood methods

PubMed Central

Dong, Yi; Mihalas, Stefan; Russell, Alexander; Etienne-Cummings, Ralph; Niebur, Ernst

2012-01-01

When a neuronal spike train is observed, what can we say about the properties of the neuron that generated it? A natural way to answer this question is to make an assumption about the type of neuron, select an appropriate model for this type, and then to choose the model parameters as those that are most likely to generate the observed spike train. This is the maximum likelihood method. If the neuron obeys simple integrate and fire dynamics, Paninski, Pillow, and Simoncelli (2004) showed that its negative log-likelihood function is convex and that its unique global minimum can thus be found by gradient descent techniques. The global minimum property requires independence of spike time intervals. Lack of history dependence is, however, an important constraint that is not fulfilled in many biological neurons which are known to generate a rich repertoire of spiking behaviors that are incompatible with history independence. Therefore, we expanded the integrate and fire model by including one additional variable, a variable threshold (Mihalas & Niebur, 2009) allowing for history-dependent firing patterns. This neuronal model produces a large number of spiking behaviors while still being linear. Linearity is important as it maintains the distribution of the random variables and still allows for maximum likelihood methods to be used. In this study we show that, although convexity of the negative log-likelihood is not guaranteed for this model, the minimum of the negative log-likelihood function yields a good estimate for the model parameters, in particular if the noise level is treated as a free parameter. Furthermore, we show that a nonlinear function minimization method (r-algorithm with space dilation) frequently reaches the global minimum. PMID:21851282

Accurate Structural Correlations from Maximum Likelihood Superpositions

PubMed Central

Theobald, Douglas L; Wuttke, Deborah S

2008-01-01

The cores of globular proteins are densely packed, resulting in complicated networks of structural interactions. These interactions in turn give rise to dynamic structural correlations over a wide range of time scales. Accurate analysis of these complex correlations is crucial for understanding biomolecular mechanisms and for relating structure to function. Here we report a highly accurate technique for inferring the major modes of structural correlation in macromolecules using likelihood-based statistical analysis of sets of structures. This method is generally applicable to any ensemble of related molecules, including families of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) models, different crystal forms of a protein, and structural alignments of homologous proteins, as well as molecular dynamics trajectories. Dominant modes of structural correlation are determined using principal components analysis (PCA) of the maximum likelihood estimate of the correlation matrix. The correlations we identify are inherently independent of the statistical uncertainty and dynamic heterogeneity associated with the structural coordinates. We additionally present an easily interpretable method (“PCA plots”) for displaying these positional correlations by color-coding them onto a macromolecular structure. Maximum likelihood PCA of structural superpositions, and the structural PCA plots that illustrate the results, will facilitate the accurate determination of dynamic structural correlations analyzed in diverse fields of structural biology. PMID:18282091

Estimation for general birth-death processes

PubMed Central

Crawford, Forrest W.; Minin, Vladimir N.; Suchard, Marc A.

2013-01-01

Birth-death processes (BDPs) are continuous-time Markov chains that track the number of “particles” in a system over time. While widely used in population biology, genetics and ecology, statistical inference of the instantaneous particle birth and death rates remains largely limited to restrictive linear BDPs in which per-particle birth and death rates are constant. Researchers often observe the number of particles at discrete times, necessitating data augmentation procedures such as expectation-maximization (EM) to find maximum likelihood estimates. For BDPs on finite state-spaces, there are powerful matrix methods for computing the conditional expectations needed for the E-step of the EM algorithm. For BDPs on infinite state-spaces, closed-form solutions for the E-step are available for some linear models, but most previous work has resorted to time-consuming simulation. Remarkably, we show that the E-step conditional expectations can be expressed as convolutions of computable transition probabilities for any general BDP with arbitrary rates. This important observation, along with a convenient continued fraction representation of the Laplace transforms of the transition probabilities, allows for novel and efficient computation of the conditional expectations for all BDPs, eliminating the need for truncation of the state-space or costly simulation. We use this insight to derive EM algorithms that yield maximum likelihood estimation for general BDPs characterized by various rate models, including generalized linear models. We show that our Laplace convolution technique outperforms competing methods when they are available and demonstrate a technique to accelerate EM algorithm convergence. We validate our approach using synthetic data and then apply our methods to cancer cell growth and estimation of mutation parameters in microsatellite evolution. PMID:25328261

Estimation for general birth-death processes.

PubMed

Crawford, Forrest W; Minin, Vladimir N; Suchard, Marc A

2014-04-01

Birth-death processes (BDPs) are continuous-time Markov chains that track the number of "particles" in a system over time. While widely used in population biology, genetics and ecology, statistical inference of the instantaneous particle birth and death rates remains largely limited to restrictive linear BDPs in which per-particle birth and death rates are constant. Researchers often observe the number of particles at discrete times, necessitating data augmentation procedures such as expectation-maximization (EM) to find maximum likelihood estimates. For BDPs on finite state-spaces, there are powerful matrix methods for computing the conditional expectations needed for the E-step of the EM algorithm. For BDPs on infinite state-spaces, closed-form solutions for the E-step are available for some linear models, but most previous work has resorted to time-consuming simulation. Remarkably, we show that the E-step conditional expectations can be expressed as convolutions of computable transition probabilities for any general BDP with arbitrary rates. This important observation, along with a convenient continued fraction representation of the Laplace transforms of the transition probabilities, allows for novel and efficient computation of the conditional expectations for all BDPs, eliminating the need for truncation of the state-space or costly simulation. We use this insight to derive EM algorithms that yield maximum likelihood estimation for general BDPs characterized by various rate models, including generalized linear models. We show that our Laplace convolution technique outperforms competing methods when they are available and demonstrate a technique to accelerate EM algorithm convergence. We validate our approach using synthetic data and then apply our methods to cancer cell growth and estimation of mutation parameters in microsatellite evolution.

Maximum-Likelihood Methods for Processing Signals From Gamma-Ray Detectors

PubMed Central

Barrett, Harrison H.; Hunter, William C. J.; Miller, Brian William; Moore, Stephen K.; Chen, Yichun; Furenlid, Lars R.

2009-01-01

In any gamma-ray detector, each event produces electrical signals on one or more circuit elements. From these signals, we may wish to determine the presence of an interaction; whether multiple interactions occurred; the spatial coordinates in two or three dimensions of at least the primary interaction; or the total energy deposited in that interaction. We may also want to compute listmode probabilities for tomographic reconstruction. Maximum-likelihood methods provide a rigorous and in some senses optimal approach to extracting this information, and the associated Fisher information matrix provides a way of quantifying and optimizing the information conveyed by the detector. This paper will review the principles of likelihood methods as applied to gamma-ray detectors and illustrate their power with recent results from the Center for Gamma-ray Imaging. PMID:20107527

A MATLAB toolbox for the efficient estimation of the psychometric function using the updated maximum-likelihood adaptive procedure.

PubMed

Shen, Yi; Dai, Wei; Richards, Virginia M

2015-03-01

A MATLAB toolbox for the efficient estimation of the threshold, slope, and lapse rate of the psychometric function is described. The toolbox enables the efficient implementation of the updated maximum-likelihood (UML) procedure. The toolbox uses an object-oriented architecture for organizing the experimental variables and computational algorithms, which provides experimenters with flexibility in experimental design and data management. Descriptions of the UML procedure and the UML Toolbox are provided, followed by toolbox use examples. Finally, guidelines and recommendations of parameter configurations are given.

A maximum likelihood convolutional decoder model vs experimental data comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, R. Y.

1979-01-01

This article describes the comparison of a maximum likelihood convolutional decoder (MCD) prediction model and the actual performance of the MCD at the Madrid Deep Space Station. The MCD prediction model is used to develop a subroutine that has been utilized by the Telemetry Analysis Program (TAP) to compute the MCD bit error rate for a given signal-to-noise ratio. The results indicate that that the TAP can predict quite well compared to the experimental measurements. An optimal modulation index also can be found through TAP.

Analysis of crackling noise using the maximum-likelihood method: Power-law mixing and exponential damping.

PubMed

Salje, Ekhard K H; Planes, Antoni; Vives, Eduard

2017-10-01

Crackling noise can be initiated by competing or coexisting mechanisms. These mechanisms can combine to generate an approximate scale invariant distribution that contains two or more contributions. The overall distribution function can be analyzed, to a good approximation, using maximum-likelihood methods and assuming that it follows a power law although with nonuniversal exponents depending on a varying lower cutoff. We propose that such distributions are rather common and originate from a simple superposition of crackling noise distributions or exponential damping.

Testing the causality of Hawkes processes with time reversal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordi, Marcus; Challet, Damien; Muni Toke, Ioane

2018-03-01

We show that univariate and symmetric multivariate Hawkes processes are only weakly causal: the true log-likelihoods of real and reversed event time vectors are almost equal, thus parameter estimation via maximum likelihood only weakly depends on the direction of the arrow of time. In ideal (synthetic) conditions, tests of goodness of parametric fit unambiguously reject backward event times, which implies that inferring kernels from time-symmetric quantities, such as the autocovariance of the event rate, only rarely produce statistically significant fits. Finally, we find that fitting financial data with many-parameter kernels may yield significant fits for both arrows of time for the same event time vector, sometimes favouring the backward time direction. This goes to show that a significant fit of Hawkes processes to real data with flexible kernels does not imply a definite arrow of time unless one tests it.

Maximum likelihood resampling of noisy, spatially correlated data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goff, J.; Jenkins, C.

2005-12-01

In any geologic application, noisy data are sources of consternation for researchers, inhibiting interpretability and marring images with unsightly and unrealistic artifacts. Filtering is the typical solution to dealing with noisy data. However, filtering commonly suffers from ad hoc (i.e., uncalibrated, ungoverned) application, which runs the risk of erasing high variability components of the field in addition to the noise components. We present here an alternative to filtering: a newly developed methodology for correcting noise in data by finding the "best" value given the data value, its uncertainty, and the data values and uncertainties at proximal locations. The motivating rationale is that data points that are close to each other in space cannot differ by "too much", where how much is "too much" is governed by the field correlation properties. Data with large uncertainties will frequently violate this condition, and in such cases need to be corrected, or "resampled." The best solution for resampling is determined by the maximum of the likelihood function defined by the intersection of two probability density functions (pdf): (1) the data pdf, with mean and variance determined by the data value and square uncertainty, respectively, and (2) the geostatistical pdf, whose mean and variance are determined by the kriging algorithm applied to proximal data values. A Monte Carlo sampling of the data probability space eliminates non-uniqueness, and weights the solution toward data values with lower uncertainties. A test with a synthetic data set sampled from a known field demonstrates quantitatively and qualitatively the improvement provided by the maximum likelihood resampling algorithm. The method is also applied to three marine geology/geophysics data examples: (1) three generations of bathymetric data on the New Jersey shelf with disparate data uncertainties; (2) mean grain size data from the Adriatic Sea, which is combination of both analytic (low uncertainty) and word-based (higher uncertainty) sources; and (3) sidescan backscatter data from the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory which are, as is typical for such data, affected by speckly noise.

Likelihood-based modification of experimental crystal structure electron density maps

DOEpatents

Terwilliger, Thomas C [Sante Fe, NM

2005-04-16

A maximum-likelihood method for improves an electron density map of an experimental crystal structure. A likelihood of a set of structure factors {F.sub.h } is formed for the experimental crystal structure as (1) the likelihood of having obtained an observed set of structure factors {F.sub.h.sup.OBS } if structure factor set {F.sub.h } was correct, and (2) the likelihood that an electron density map resulting from {F.sub.h } is consistent with selected prior knowledge about the experimental crystal structure. The set of structure factors {F.sub.h } is then adjusted to maximize the likelihood of {F.sub.h } for the experimental crystal structure. An improved electron density map is constructed with the maximized structure factors.

Modularity-like objective function in annotated networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Jia-Rong; Wang, Bing-Hong

2017-12-01

We ascertain the modularity-like objective function whose optimization is equivalent to the maximum likelihood in annotated networks. We demonstrate that the modularity-like objective function is a linear combination of modularity and conditional entropy. In contrast with statistical inference methods, in our method, the influence of the metadata is adjustable; when its influence is strong enough, the metadata can be recovered. Conversely, when it is weak, the detection may correspond to another partition. Between the two, there is a transition. This paper provides a concept for expanding the scope of modularity methods.

Shape fabric development in rigid clast populations under pure shear: The influence of no-slip versus slip boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulchrone, Kieran F.; Meere, Patrick A.

2015-09-01

Shape fabrics of elliptical objects in rocks are usually assumed to develop by passive behavior of inclusions with respect to the surrounding material leading to shape-based strain analysis methods belonging to the Rf/ϕ family. A probability density function is derived for the orientational characteristics of populations of rigid ellipses deforming in a pure shear 2D deformation with both no-slip and slip boundary conditions. Using maximum likelihood a numerical method is developed for estimating finite strain in natural populations deforming for both mechanisms. Application to a natural example indicates the importance of the slip mechanism in explaining clast shape fabrics in deformed sediments.

Phylogenetic place of guinea pigs: no support of the rodent-polyphyly hypothesis from maximum-likelihood analyses of multiple protein sequences.

PubMed

Cao, Y; Adachi, J; Yano, T; Hasegawa, M

1994-07-01

Graur et al.'s (1991) hypothesis that the guinea pig-like rodents have an evolutionary origin within mammals that is separate from that of other rodents (the rodent-polyphyly hypothesis) was reexamined by the maximum-likelihood method for protein phylogeny, as well as by the maximum-parsimony and neighbor-joining methods. The overall evidence does not support Graur et al.'s hypothesis, which radically contradicts the traditional view of rodent monophyly. This work demonstrates that we must be careful in choosing a proper method for phylogenetic inference and that an argument based on a small data set (with respect to the length of the sequence and especially the number of species) may be unstable.

Task Performance with List-Mode Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caucci, Luca

This dissertation investigates the application of list-mode data to detection, estimation, and image reconstruction problems, with an emphasis on emission tomography in medical imaging. We begin by introducing a theoretical framework for list-mode data and we use it to define two observers that operate on list-mode data. These observers are applied to the problem of detecting a signal (known in shape and location) buried in a random lumpy background. We then consider maximum-likelihood methods for the estimation of numerical parameters from list-mode data, and we characterize the performance of these estimators via the so-called Fisher information matrix. Reconstruction from PET list-mode data is then considered. In a process we called "double maximum-likelihood" reconstruction, we consider a simple PET imaging system and we use maximum-likelihood methods to first estimate a parameter vector for each pair of gamma-ray photons that is detected by the hardware. The collection of these parameter vectors forms a list, which is then fed to another maximum-likelihood algorithm for volumetric reconstruction over a grid of voxels. Efficient parallel implementation of the algorithms discussed above is then presented. In this work, we take advantage of two low-cost, mass-produced computing platforms that have recently appeared on the market, and we provide some details on implementing our algorithms on these devices. We conclude this dissertation work by elaborating on a possible application of list-mode data to X-ray digital mammography. We argue that today's CMOS detectors and computing platforms have become fast enough to make X-ray digital mammography list-mode data acquisition and processing feasible.

Meta-Milgram: An Empirical Synthesis of the Obedience Experiments

PubMed Central

Haslam, Nick; Loughnan, Steve; Perry, Gina

2014-01-01

Milgram's famous experiment contained 23 small-sample conditions that elicited striking variations in obedient responding. A synthesis of these diverse conditions could clarify the factors that influence obedience in the Milgram paradigm. We assembled data from the 21 conditions (N = 740) in which obedience involved progression to maximum voltage (overall rate 43.6%) and coded these conditions on 14 properties pertaining to the learner, the teacher, the experimenter, the learner-teacher relation, the experimenter-teacher relation, and the experimental setting. Logistic regression analysis indicated that eight factors influenced the likelihood that teachers continued to the 450 volt shock: the experimenter's directiveness, legitimacy, and consistency; group pressure on the teacher to disobey; the indirectness, proximity, and intimacy of the relation between teacher and learner; and the distance between the teacher and the experimenter. Implications are discussed. PMID:24705407

Imaging resolution and properties analysis of super resolution microscopy with parallel detection under different noise, detector and image restoration conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Zhongzhi; Liu, Shaocong; Sun, Shiyi; Kuang, Cuifang; Liu, Xu

2018-06-01

Parallel detection, which can use the additional information of a pinhole plane image taken at every excitation scan position, could be an efficient method to enhance the resolution of a confocal laser scanning microscope. In this paper, we discuss images obtained under different conditions and using different image restoration methods with parallel detection to quantitatively compare the imaging quality. The conditions include different noise levels and different detector array settings. The image restoration methods include linear deconvolution and pixel reassignment with Richard-Lucy deconvolution and with maximum-likelihood estimation deconvolution. The results show that the linear deconvolution share properties such as high-efficiency and the best performance under all different conditions, and is therefore expected to be of use for future biomedical routine research.

Trellises and Trellis-Based Decoding Algorithms for Linear Block Codes. Part 3; A Recursive Maximum Likelihood Decoding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu; Fossorier, Marc

1998-01-01

The Viterbi algorithm is indeed a very simple and efficient method of implementing the maximum likelihood decoding. However, if we take advantage of the structural properties in a trellis section, other efficient trellis-based decoding algorithms can be devised. Recently, an efficient trellis-based recursive maximum likelihood decoding (RMLD) algorithm for linear block codes has been proposed. This algorithm is more efficient than the conventional Viterbi algorithm in both computation and hardware requirements. Most importantly, the implementation of this algorithm does not require the construction of the entire code trellis, only some special one-section trellises of relatively small state and branch complexities are needed for constructing path (or branch) metric tables recursively. At the end, there is only one table which contains only the most likely code-word and its metric for a given received sequence r = (r(sub 1), r(sub 2),...,r(sub n)). This algorithm basically uses the divide and conquer strategy. Furthermore, it allows parallel/pipeline processing of received sequences to speed up decoding.

Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Salarzadeh Jenatabadi, Hashem; Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

Maximum-likelihood fitting of data dominated by Poisson statistical uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stoneking, M.R.; Den Hartog, D.J.

1996-06-01

The fitting of data by {chi}{sup 2}-minimization is valid only when the uncertainties in the data are normally distributed. When analyzing spectroscopic or particle counting data at very low signal level (e.g., a Thomson scattering diagnostic), the uncertainties are distributed with a Poisson distribution. The authors have developed a maximum-likelihood method for fitting data that correctly treats the Poisson statistical character of the uncertainties. This method maximizes the total probability that the observed data are drawn from the assumed fit function using the Poisson probability function to determine the probability for each data point. The algorithm also returns uncertainty estimatesmore » for the fit parameters. They compare this method with a {chi}{sup 2}-minimization routine applied to both simulated and real data. Differences in the returned fits are greater at low signal level (less than {approximately}20 counts per measurement). the maximum-likelihood method is found to be more accurate and robust, returning a narrower distribution of values for the fit parameters with fewer outliers.« less

Land cover mapping after the tsunami event over Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam (NAD) province, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, H. S.; MatJafri, M. Z.; Abdullah, K.; Alias, A. N.; Mohd. Saleh, N.; Wong, C. J.; Surbakti, M. S.

2008-03-01

Remote sensing offers an important means of detecting and analyzing temporal changes occurring in our landscape. This research used remote sensing to quantify land use/land cover changes at the Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam (Nad) province, Indonesia on a regional scale. The objective of this paper is to assess the changed produced from the analysis of Landsat TM data. A Landsat TM image was used to develop land cover classification map for the 27 March 2005. Four supervised classifications techniques (Maximum Likelihood, Minimum Distance-to- Mean, Parallelepiped and Parallelepiped with Maximum Likelihood Classifier Tiebreaker classifier) were performed to the satellite image. Training sites and accuracy assessment were needed for supervised classification techniques. The training sites were established using polygons based on the colour image. High detection accuracy (>80%) and overall Kappa (>0.80) were achieved by the Parallelepiped with Maximum Likelihood Classifier Tiebreaker classifier in this study. This preliminary study has produced a promising result. This indicates that land cover mapping can be carried out using remote sensing classification method of the satellite digital imagery.

Evidence of seasonal variation in longitudinal growth of height in a sample of boys from Stuttgart Carlsschule, 1771-1793, using combined principal component analysis and maximum likelihood principle.

PubMed

Lehmann, A; Scheffler, Ch; Hermanussen, M

2010-02-01

Recent progress in modelling individual growth has been achieved by combining the principal component analysis and the maximum likelihood principle. This combination models growth even in incomplete sets of data and in data obtained at irregular intervals. We re-analysed late 18th century longitudinal growth of German boys from the boarding school Carlsschule in Stuttgart. The boys, aged 6-23 years, were measured at irregular 3-12 monthly intervals during the period 1771-1793. At the age of 18 years, mean height was 1652 mm, but height variation was large. The shortest boy reached 1474 mm, the tallest 1826 mm. Measured height closely paralleled modelled height, with mean difference of 4 mm, SD 7 mm. Seasonal height variation was found. Low growth rates occurred in spring and high growth rates in summer and autumn. The present study demonstrates that combining the principal component analysis and the maximum likelihood principle enables growth modelling in historic height data also. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Testing students’ e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling

PubMed Central

Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students’ intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods’ results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated. PMID:28886019

Fuzzy multinomial logistic regression analysis: A multi-objective programming approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdalla, Hesham A.; El-Sayed, Amany A.; Hamed, Ramadan

2017-05-01

Parameter estimation for multinomial logistic regression is usually based on maximizing the likelihood function. For large well-balanced datasets, Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation is a satisfactory approach. Unfortunately, ML can fail completely or at least produce poor results in terms of estimated probabilities and confidence intervals of parameters, specially for small datasets. In this study, a new approach based on fuzzy concepts is proposed to estimate parameters of the multinomial logistic regression. The study assumes that the parameters of multinomial logistic regression are fuzzy. Based on the extension principle stated by Zadeh and Bárdossy's proposition, a multi-objective programming approach is suggested to estimate these fuzzy parameters. A simulation study is used to evaluate the performance of the new approach versus Maximum likelihood (ML) approach. Results show that the new proposed model outperforms ML in cases of small datasets.

Performance and separation occurrence of binary probit regression estimator using maximum likelihood method and Firths approach under different sample size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lusiana, Evellin Dewi

2017-12-01

The parameters of binary probit regression model are commonly estimated by using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. However, MLE method has limitation if the binary data contains separation. Separation is the condition where there are one or several independent variables that exactly grouped the categories in binary response. It will result the estimators of MLE method become non-convergent, so that they cannot be used in modeling. One of the effort to resolve the separation is using Firths approach instead. This research has two aims. First, to identify the chance of separation occurrence in binary probit regression model between MLE method and Firths approach. Second, to compare the performance of binary probit regression model estimator that obtained by MLE method and Firths approach using RMSE criteria. Those are performed using simulation method and under different sample size. The results showed that the chance of separation occurrence in MLE method for small sample size is higher than Firths approach. On the other hand, for larger sample size, the probability decreased and relatively identic between MLE method and Firths approach. Meanwhile, Firths estimators have smaller RMSE than MLEs especially for smaller sample sizes. But for larger sample sizes, the RMSEs are not much different. It means that Firths estimators outperformed MLE estimator.

Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood estimation (BMCML) to calibrate a lake oxygen recovery model. We first derive an analytical solution of the differential equation governing lake-averaged oxygen dynamics as a function of time-variable wind speed. Statistical inferences on model parameters and predictive uncertainty are then drawn by Bayesian conditioning of the analytical solution on observed daily wind speed and oxygen concentration data obtained from an earlier study during two recovery periods on a eutrophic lake in upper state New York. The model is calibrated using oxygen recovery data for one year and statistical inferences were validated using recovery data for another year. Compared with essentially two-step, regression and optimization approach, the BMCML results are more comprehensive and performed relatively better in predicting the observed temporal dissolved oxygen levels (DO) in the lake. BMCML also produced comparable calibration and validation results with those obtained using popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique (MCMC) and is computationally simpler and easier to implement than the MCMC. Next, using the calibrated model, we derive an optimal relationship between liquid film-transfer coefficien

On the Log-Normality of Historical Magnetic-Storm Intensity Statistics: Implications for Extreme-Event Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.; Rigler, E. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Riley, P.

2015-12-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to -Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, -Dst > 850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42, 2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a -Dst > 880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490, 1187] nT. This work is partially motivated by United States National Science and Technology Council and Committee on Space Research and International Living with a Star priorities and strategic plans for the assessment and mitigation of space-weather hazards.

A Bayesian-Based Novel Methodology to Generate Reliable Site Response Mapping Sensitive to Data Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, A.; Goto, H.

2017-12-01

The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake caused severe damage in many areas further inside the mainland because of site-amplification. Furukawa district in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan recorded significant spatial differences in ground motion even at sub-kilometer scales. The site responses in the damage zone far exceeded the levels in the hazard maps. A reason why the mismatch occurred is that mapping follow only the mean value at the measurement locations with no regard to the data uncertainties and thus are not always reliable. Our research objective is to develop a methodology to incorporate data uncertainties in mapping and propose a reliable map. The methodology is based on a hierarchical Bayesian modeling of normally-distributed site responses in space where the mean (μ), site-specific variance (σ2) and between-sites variance(s2) parameters are treated as unknowns with a prior distribution. The observation data is artificially created site responses with varying means and variances for 150 seismic events across 50 locations in one-dimensional space. Spatially auto-correlated random effects were added to the mean (μ) using a conditionally autoregressive (CAR) prior. The inferences on the unknown parameters are done using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods from the posterior distribution. The goal is to find reliable estimates of μ sensitive to uncertainties. During initial trials, we observed that the tau (=1/s2) parameter of CAR prior controls the μ estimation. Using a constraint, s = 1/(k×σ), five spatial models with varying k-values were created. We define reliability to be measured by the model likelihood and propose the maximum likelihood model to be highly reliable. The model with maximum likelihood was selected using a 5-fold cross-validation technique. The results show that the maximum likelihood model (μ*) follows the site-specific mean at low uncertainties and converges to the model-mean at higher uncertainties (Fig.1). This result is highly significant as it successfully incorporates the effect of data uncertainties in mapping. This novel approach can be applied to any research field using mapping techniques. The methodology is now being applied to real records from a very dense seismic network in Furukawa district, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan to generate a reliable map of the site responses.

Development of an LSI maximum-likelihood convolutional decoder for advanced forward error correction capability on the NASA 30/20 GHz program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, R. T.; Mccallister, R. D.

1982-01-01

The particular coding option identified as providing the best level of coding gain performance in an LSI-efficient implementation was the optimal constraint length five, rate one-half convolutional code. To determine the specific set of design parameters which optimally matches this decoder to the LSI constraints, a breadboard MCD (maximum-likelihood convolutional decoder) was fabricated and used to generate detailed performance trade-off data. The extensive performance testing data gathered during this design tradeoff study are summarized, and the functional and physical MCD chip characteristics are presented.

Gyro-based Maximum-Likelihood Thruster Fault Detection and Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Edward; Lages, Chris; Mah, Robert; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

When building smaller, less expensive spacecraft, there is a need for intelligent fault tolerance vs. increased hardware redundancy. If fault tolerance can be achieved using existing navigation sensors, cost and vehicle complexity can be reduced. A maximum likelihood-based approach to thruster fault detection and identification (FDI) for spacecraft is developed here and applied in simulation to the X-38 space vehicle. The system uses only gyro signals to detect and identify hard, abrupt, single and multiple jet on- and off-failures. Faults are detected within one second and identified within one to five accords,

Gyre and gimble: a maximum-likelihood replacement for Patterson correlation refinement.

PubMed

McCoy, Airlie J; Oeffner, Robert D; Millán, Claudia; Sammito, Massimo; Usón, Isabel; Read, Randy J

2018-04-01

Descriptions are given of the maximum-likelihood gyre method implemented in Phaser for optimizing the orientation and relative position of rigid-body fragments of a model after the orientation of the model has been identified, but before the model has been positioned in the unit cell, and also the related gimble method for the refinement of rigid-body fragments of the model after positioning. Gyre refinement helps to lower the root-mean-square atomic displacements between model and target molecular-replacement solutions for the test case of antibody Fab(26-10) and improves structure solution with ARCIMBOLDO_SHREDDER.

A MATLAB toolbox for the efficient estimation of the psychometric function using the updated maximum-likelihood adaptive procedure

PubMed Central

Richards, V. M.; Dai, W.

2014-01-01

A MATLAB toolbox for the efficient estimation of the threshold, slope, and lapse rate of the psychometric function is described. The toolbox enables the efficient implementation of the updated maximum-likelihood (UML) procedure. The toolbox uses an object-oriented architecture for organizing the experimental variables and computational algorithms, which provides experimenters with flexibility in experimental design and data management. Descriptions of the UML procedure and the UML Toolbox are provided, followed by toolbox use examples. Finally, guidelines and recommendations of parameter configurations are given. PMID:24671826

Equalization of nonlinear transmission impairments by maximum-likelihood-sequence estimation in digital coherent receivers.

PubMed

Khairuzzaman, Md; Zhang, Chao; Igarashi, Koji; Katoh, Kazuhiro; Kikuchi, Kazuro

2010-03-01

We describe a successful introduction of maximum-likelihood-sequence estimation (MLSE) into digital coherent receivers together with finite-impulse response (FIR) filters in order to equalize both linear and nonlinear fiber impairments. The MLSE equalizer based on the Viterbi algorithm is implemented in the offline digital signal processing (DSP) core. We transmit 20-Gbit/s quadrature phase-shift keying (QPSK) signals through a 200-km-long standard single-mode fiber. The bit-error rate performance shows that the MLSE equalizer outperforms the conventional adaptive FIR filter, especially when nonlinear impairments are predominant.

The epoch state navigation filter. [for maximum likelihood estimates of position and velocity vectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Battin, R. H.; Croopnick, S. R.; Edwards, J. A.

1977-01-01

The formulation of a recursive maximum likelihood navigation system employing reference position and velocity vectors as state variables is presented. Convenient forms of the required variational equations of motion are developed together with an explicit form of the associated state transition matrix needed to refer measurement data from the measurement time to the epoch time. Computational advantages accrue from this design in that the usual forward extrapolation of the covariance matrix of estimation errors can be avoided without incurring unacceptable system errors. Simulation data for earth orbiting satellites are provided to substantiate this assertion.

A 3D approximate maximum likelihood localization solver

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2016-09-23

A robust three-dimensional solver was needed to accurately and efficiently estimate the time sequence of locations of fish tagged with acoustic transmitters and vocalizing marine mammals to describe in sufficient detail the information needed to assess the function of dam-passage design alternatives and support Marine Renewable Energy. An approximate maximum likelihood solver was developed using measurements of time difference of arrival from all hydrophones in receiving arrays on which a transmission was detected. Field experiments demonstrated that the developed solver performed significantly better in tracking efficiency and accuracy than other solvers described in the literature.

Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models by Maximum Likelihood and the Simulated Method of Moments

PubMed Central

Eisenhauer, Philipp; Heckman, James J.; Mosso, Stefano

2015-01-01

We compare the performance of maximum likelihood (ML) and simulated method of moments (SMM) estimation for dynamic discrete choice models. We construct and estimate a simplified dynamic structural model of education that captures some basic features of educational choices in the United States in the 1980s and early 1990s. We use estimates from our model to simulate a synthetic dataset and assess the ability of ML and SMM to recover the model parameters on this sample. We investigate the performance of alternative tuning parameters for SMM. PMID:26494926

Search for Point Sources of Ultra-High-Energy Cosmic Rays above 4.0 × 1019 eV Using a Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasi, R. U.; Abu-Zayyad, T.; Amann, J. F.; Archbold, G.; Atkins, R.; Bellido, J. A.; Belov, K.; Belz, J. W.; Ben-Zvi, S. Y.; Bergman, D. R.; Boyer, J. H.; Burt, G. W.; Cao, Z.; Clay, R. W.; Connolly, B. M.; Dawson, B. R.; Deng, W.; Farrar, G. R.; Fedorova, Y.; Findlay, J.; Finley, C. B.; Hanlon, W. F.; Hoffman, C. M.; Holzscheiter, M. H.; Hughes, G. A.; Hüntemeyer, P.; Jui, C. C. H.; Kim, K.; Kirn, M. A.; Knapp, B. C.; Loh, E. C.; Maestas, M. M.; Manago, N.; Mannel, E. J.; Marek, L. J.; Martens, K.; Matthews, J. A. J.; Matthews, J. N.; O'Neill, A.; Painter, C. A.; Perera, L.; Reil, K.; Riehle, R.; Roberts, M. D.; Sasaki, M.; Schnetzer, S. R.; Seman, M.; Simpson, K. M.; Sinnis, G.; Smith, J. D.; Snow, R.; Sokolsky, P.; Song, C.; Springer, R. W.; Stokes, B. T.; Thomas, J. R.; Thomas, S. B.; Thomson, G. B.; Tupa, D.; Westerhoff, S.; Wiencke, L. R.; Zech, A.

2005-04-01

We present the results of a search for cosmic-ray point sources at energies in excess of 4.0×1019 eV in the combined data sets recorded by the Akeno Giant Air Shower Array and High Resolution Fly's Eye stereo experiments. The analysis is based on a maximum likelihood ratio test using the probability density function for each event rather than requiring an a priori choice of a fixed angular bin size. No statistically significant clustering of events consistent with a point source is found.

The Equivalence of Two Methods of Parameter Estimation for the Rasch Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blackwood, Larry G.; Bradley, Edwin L.

1989-01-01

Two methods of estimating parameters in the Rasch model are compared. The equivalence of likelihood estimations from the model of G. J. Mellenbergh and P. Vijn (1981) and from usual unconditional maximum likelihood (UML) estimation is demonstrated. Mellenbergh and Vijn's model is a convenient method of calculating UML estimates. (SLD)

Using the β-binomial distribution to characterize forest health

Treesearch

S.J. Zarnoch; R.L. Anderson; R.M. Sheffield

1995-01-01

The β-binomial distribution is suggested as a model for describing and analyzing the dichotomous data obtained from programs monitoring the health of forests in the United States. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is given as well as asymptotic likelihood ratio tests. The procedure is illustrated with data on dogwood anthracnose infection (caused...

Power and Sample Size Calculations for Logistic Regression Tests for Differential Item Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Zhushan

2014-01-01

Logistic regression is a popular method for detecting uniform and nonuniform differential item functioning (DIF) effects. Theoretical formulas for the power and sample size calculations are derived for likelihood ratio tests and Wald tests based on the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimators for the logistic regression model.…

A Note on Three Statistical Tests in the Logistic Regression DIF Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paek, Insu

2012-01-01

Although logistic regression became one of the well-known methods in detecting differential item functioning (DIF), its three statistical tests, the Wald, likelihood ratio (LR), and score tests, which are readily available under the maximum likelihood, do not seem to be consistently distinguished in DIF literature. This paper provides a clarifying…

Contributions to the Underlying Bivariate Normal Method for Factor Analyzing Ordinal Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xi, Nuo; Browne, Michael W.

2014-01-01

A promising "underlying bivariate normal" approach was proposed by Jöreskog and Moustaki for use in the factor analysis of ordinal data. This was a limited information approach that involved the maximization of a composite likelihood function. Its advantage over full-information maximum likelihood was that very much less computation was…

Investigating the Impact of Uncertainty about Item Parameters on Ability Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Jinming; Xie, Minge; Song, Xiaolan; Lu, Ting

2011-01-01

Asymptotic expansions of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and weighted likelihood estimator (WLE) of an examinee's ability are derived while item parameter estimators are treated as covariates measured with error. The asymptotic formulae present the amount of bias of the ability estimators due to the uncertainty of item parameter estimators.…

Estimation of Complex Generalized Linear Mixed Models for Measurement and Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeon, Minjeong

2012-01-01

Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) is technically challenging because of the intractable likelihoods that involve high dimensional integrations over random effects. The problem is magnified when the random effects have a crossed design and thus the data cannot be reduced to small independent clusters. A…

A likelihood-based time series modeling approach for application in dendrochronology to examine the growth-climate relations and forest disturbance history

EPA Science Inventory

A time series intervention analysis (TSIA) of dendrochronological data to infer the tree growth-climate-disturbance relations and forest disturbance history is described. Maximum likelihood is used to estimate the parameters of a structural time series model with components for ...

A Maximum-Likelihood Approach to Force-Field Calibration.

PubMed

Zaborowski, Bartłomiej; Jagieła, Dawid; Czaplewski, Cezary; Hałabis, Anna; Lewandowska, Agnieszka; Żmudzińska, Wioletta; Ołdziej, Stanisław; Karczyńska, Agnieszka; Omieczynski, Christian; Wirecki, Tomasz; Liwo, Adam

2015-09-28

A new approach to the calibration of the force fields is proposed, in which the force-field parameters are obtained by maximum-likelihood fitting of the calculated conformational ensembles to the experimental ensembles of training system(s). The maximum-likelihood function is composed of logarithms of the Boltzmann probabilities of the experimental conformations, calculated with the current energy function. Because the theoretical distribution is given in the form of the simulated conformations only, the contributions from all of the simulated conformations, with Gaussian weights in the distances from a given experimental conformation, are added to give the contribution to the target function from this conformation. In contrast to earlier methods for force-field calibration, the approach does not suffer from the arbitrariness of dividing the decoy set into native-like and non-native structures; however, if such a division is made instead of using Gaussian weights, application of the maximum-likelihood method results in the well-known energy-gap maximization. The computational procedure consists of cycles of decoy generation and maximum-likelihood-function optimization, which are iterated until convergence is reached. The method was tested with Gaussian distributions and then applied to the physics-based coarse-grained UNRES force field for proteins. The NMR structures of the tryptophan cage, a small α-helical protein, determined at three temperatures (T = 280, 305, and 313 K) by Hałabis et al. ( J. Phys. Chem. B 2012 , 116 , 6898 - 6907 ), were used. Multiplexed replica-exchange molecular dynamics was used to generate the decoys. The iterative procedure exhibited steady convergence. Three variants of optimization were tried: optimization of the energy-term weights alone and use of the experimental ensemble of the folded protein only at T = 280 K (run 1); optimization of the energy-term weights and use of experimental ensembles at all three temperatures (run 2); and optimization of the energy-term weights and the coefficients of the torsional and multibody energy terms and use of experimental ensembles at all three temperatures (run 3). The force fields were subsequently tested with a set of 14 α-helical and two α + β proteins. Optimization run 1 resulted in better agreement with the experimental ensemble at T = 280 K compared with optimization run 2 and in comparable performance on the test set but poorer agreement of the calculated folding temperature with the experimental folding temperature. Optimization run 3 resulted in the best fit of the calculated ensembles to the experimental ones for the tryptophan cage but in much poorer performance on the training set, suggesting that use of a small α-helical protein for extensive force-field calibration resulted in overfitting of the data for this protein at the expense of transferability. The optimized force field resulting from run 2 was found to fold 13 of the 14 tested α-helical proteins and one small α + β protein with the correct topologies; the average structures of 10 of them were predicted with accuracies of about 5 Å C(α) root-mean-square deviation or better. Test simulations with an additional set of 12 α-helical proteins demonstrated that this force field performed better on α-helical proteins than the previous parametrizations of UNRES. The proposed approach is applicable to any problem of maximum-likelihood parameter estimation when the contributions to the maximum-likelihood function cannot be evaluated at the experimental points and the dimension of the configurational space is too high to construct histograms of the experimental distributions.

Free kick instead of cross-validation in maximum-likelihood refinement of macromolecular crystal structures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pražnikar, Jure; University of Primorska,; Turk, Dušan, E-mail: dusan.turk@ijs.si

2014-12-01

The maximum-likelihood free-kick target, which calculates model error estimates from the work set and a randomly displaced model, proved superior in the accuracy and consistency of refinement of crystal structures compared with the maximum-likelihood cross-validation target, which calculates error estimates from the test set and the unperturbed model. The refinement of a molecular model is a computational procedure by which the atomic model is fitted to the diffraction data. The commonly used target in the refinement of macromolecular structures is the maximum-likelihood (ML) function, which relies on the assessment of model errors. The current ML functions rely on cross-validation. Theymore » utilize phase-error estimates that are calculated from a small fraction of diffraction data, called the test set, that are not used to fit the model. An approach has been developed that uses the work set to calculate the phase-error estimates in the ML refinement from simulating the model errors via the random displacement of atomic coordinates. It is called ML free-kick refinement as it uses the ML formulation of the target function and is based on the idea of freeing the model from the model bias imposed by the chemical energy restraints used in refinement. This approach for the calculation of error estimates is superior to the cross-validation approach: it reduces the phase error and increases the accuracy of molecular models, is more robust, provides clearer maps and may use a smaller portion of data for the test set for the calculation of R{sub free} or may leave it out completely.« less

Marginal Maximum A Posteriori Item Parameter Estimation for the Generalized Graded Unfolding Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, James S.; Thompson, Vanessa M.

2011-01-01

A marginal maximum a posteriori (MMAP) procedure was implemented to estimate item parameters in the generalized graded unfolding model (GGUM). Estimates from the MMAP method were compared with those derived from marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedures in a recovery simulation that varied sample size,…

THESEUS: maximum likelihood superpositioning and analysis of macromolecular structures.

PubMed

Theobald, Douglas L; Wuttke, Deborah S

2006-09-01

THESEUS is a command line program for performing maximum likelihood (ML) superpositions and analysis of macromolecular structures. While conventional superpositioning methods use ordinary least-squares (LS) as the optimization criterion, ML superpositions provide substantially improved accuracy by down-weighting variable structural regions and by correcting for correlations among atoms. ML superpositioning is robust and insensitive to the specific atoms included in the analysis, and thus it does not require subjective pruning of selected variable atomic coordinates. Output includes both likelihood-based and frequentist statistics for accurate evaluation of the adequacy of a superposition and for reliable analysis of structural similarities and differences. THESEUS performs principal components analysis for analyzing the complex correlations found among atoms within a structural ensemble. ANSI C source code and selected binaries for various computing platforms are available under the GNU open source license from http://monkshood.colorado.edu/theseus/ or http://www.theseus3d.org.

Simulation-Based Evaluation of Hybridization Network Reconstruction Methods in the Presence of Incomplete Lineage Sorting

PubMed Central

Kamneva, Olga K; Rosenberg, Noah A

2017-01-01

Hybridization events generate reticulate species relationships, giving rise to species networks rather than species trees. We report a comparative study of consensus, maximum parsimony, and maximum likelihood methods of species network reconstruction using gene trees simulated assuming a known species history. We evaluate the role of the divergence time between species involved in a hybridization event, the relative contributions of the hybridizing species, and the error in gene tree estimation. When gene tree discordance is mostly due to hybridization and not due to incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), most of the methods can detect even highly skewed hybridization events between highly divergent species. For recent divergences between hybridizing species, when the influence of ILS is sufficiently high, likelihood methods outperform parsimony and consensus methods, which erroneously identify extra hybridizations. The more sophisticated likelihood methods, however, are affected by gene tree errors to a greater extent than are consensus and parsimony. PMID:28469378

Free energy reconstruction from steered dynamics without post-processing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Athenes, Manuel, E-mail: Manuel.Athenes@cea.f; Condensed Matter and Materials Division, Physics and Life Sciences Directorate, LLNL, Livermore, CA 94551; Marinica, Mihai-Cosmin

2010-09-20

Various methods achieving importance sampling in ensembles of nonequilibrium trajectories enable one to estimate free energy differences and, by maximum-likelihood post-processing, to reconstruct free energy landscapes. Here, based on Bayes theorem, we propose a more direct method in which a posterior likelihood function is used both to construct the steered dynamics and to infer the contribution to equilibrium of all the sampled states. The method is implemented with two steering schedules. First, using non-autonomous steering, we calculate the migration barrier of the vacancy in Fe-{alpha}. Second, using an autonomous scheduling related to metadynamics and equivalent to temperature-accelerated molecular dynamics, wemore » accurately reconstruct the two-dimensional free energy landscape of the 38-atom Lennard-Jones cluster as a function of an orientational bond-order parameter and energy, down to the solid-solid structural transition temperature of the cluster and without maximum-likelihood post-processing.« less

Master teachers' responses to twenty literacy and science/mathematics practices in deaf education.

PubMed

Easterbrooks, Susan R; Stephenson, Brenda; Mertens, Donna

2006-01-01

Under a grant to improve outcomes for students who are deaf or hard of hearing awarded to the Association of College Educators--Deaf/Hard of Hearing, a team identified content that all teachers of students who are deaf and hard of hearing must understand and be able to teach. Also identified were 20 practices associated with content standards (10 each, literacy and science/mathematics). Thirty-seven master teachers identified by grant agents rated the practices on a Likert-type scale indicating the maximum benefit of each practice and maximum likelihood that they would use the practice, yielding a likelihood-impact analysis. The teachers showed strong agreement on the benefits and likelihood of use of the rated practices. Concerns about implementation of many of the practices related to time constraints and mixed-ability classrooms were themes of the reviews. Actions for teacher preparation programs were recommended.

Weak and Dynamic GNSS Signal Tracking Strategies for Flight Missions in the Space Service Volume

PubMed Central

Jing, Shuai; Zhan, Xingqun; Liu, Baoyu; Chen, Maolin

2016-01-01

Weak-signal and high-dynamics are of two primary concerns of space navigation using GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) in the space service volume (SSV). The paper firstly defines a reference assumption third-order phase-locked loop (PLL) as the baseline of an onboard GNSS receiver, and proves the incompetence of this conventional architecture. Then an adaptive four-state Kalman filter (KF)-based algorithm is introduced to realize the optimization of loop noise bandwidth, which can adaptively regulate its filter gain according to the received signal power and line-of-sight (LOS) dynamics. To overcome the matter of losing lock in weak-signal and high-dynamic environments, an open loop tracking strategy aided by an inertial navigation system (INS) is recommended, and the traditional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is modified in a non-coherent way by reconstructing the likelihood cost function. Furthermore, a typical mission with combined orbital maneuvering and non-maneuvering arcs is taken as a destination object to test the two proposed strategies. Finally, the experiment based on computer simulation identifies the effectiveness of an adaptive four-state KF-based strategy under non-maneuvering conditions and the virtue of INS-assisted methods under maneuvering conditions. PMID:27598164

Weak and Dynamic GNSS Signal Tracking Strategies for Flight Missions in the Space Service Volume.

PubMed

Jing, Shuai; Zhan, Xingqun; Liu, Baoyu; Chen, Maolin

2016-09-02

Weak-signal and high-dynamics are of two primary concerns of space navigation using GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) in the space service volume (SSV). The paper firstly defines a reference assumption third-order phase-locked loop (PLL) as the baseline of an onboard GNSS receiver, and proves the incompetence of this conventional architecture. Then an adaptive four-state Kalman filter (KF)-based algorithm is introduced to realize the optimization of loop noise bandwidth, which can adaptively regulate its filter gain according to the received signal power and line-of-sight (LOS) dynamics. To overcome the matter of losing lock in weak-signal and high-dynamic environments, an open loop tracking strategy aided by an inertial navigation system (INS) is recommended, and the traditional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is modified in a non-coherent way by reconstructing the likelihood cost function. Furthermore, a typical mission with combined orbital maneuvering and non-maneuvering arcs is taken as a destination object to test the two proposed strategies. Finally, the experiment based on computer simulation identifies the effectiveness of an adaptive four-state KF-based strategy under non-maneuvering conditions and the virtue of INS-assisted methods under maneuvering conditions.

New algorithms and methods to estimate maximum-likelihood phylogenies: assessing the performance of PhyML 3.0.

PubMed

Guindon, Stéphane; Dufayard, Jean-François; Lefort, Vincent; Anisimova, Maria; Hordijk, Wim; Gascuel, Olivier

2010-05-01

PhyML is a phylogeny software based on the maximum-likelihood principle. Early PhyML versions used a fast algorithm performing nearest neighbor interchanges to improve a reasonable starting tree topology. Since the original publication (Guindon S., Gascuel O. 2003. A simple, fast and accurate algorithm to estimate large phylogenies by maximum likelihood. Syst. Biol. 52:696-704), PhyML has been widely used (>2500 citations in ISI Web of Science) because of its simplicity and a fair compromise between accuracy and speed. In the meantime, research around PhyML has continued, and this article describes the new algorithms and methods implemented in the program. First, we introduce a new algorithm to search the tree space with user-defined intensity using subtree pruning and regrafting topological moves. The parsimony criterion is used here to filter out the least promising topology modifications with respect to the likelihood function. The analysis of a large collection of real nucleotide and amino acid data sets of various sizes demonstrates the good performance of this method. Second, we describe a new test to assess the support of the data for internal branches of a phylogeny. This approach extends the recently proposed approximate likelihood-ratio test and relies on a nonparametric, Shimodaira-Hasegawa-like procedure. A detailed analysis of real alignments sheds light on the links between this new approach and the more classical nonparametric bootstrap method. Overall, our tests show that the last version (3.0) of PhyML is fast, accurate, stable, and ready to use. A Web server and binary files are available from http://www.atgc-montpellier.fr/phyml/.

An 'unconditional-like' structure for the conditional estimator of odds ratio from 2 x 2 tables.

PubMed

Hanley, James A; Miettinen, Olli S

2006-02-01

In the estimation of the odds ratio (OR), the conditional maximum-likelihood estimate (cMLE) is preferred to the more readily computed unconditional one (uMLE). However, the exact cMLE does not have a closed form to help divine it from the uMLE or to understand in what circumstances the difference between the two is appreciable. Here, the cMLE is shown to have the same 'ratio of cross-products' structure as its unconditional counterpart, but with two of the cell frequencies augmented, so as to shrink the unconditional estimator towards unity. The augmentation involves a factor, similar to the finite population correction, derived from the minimum of the marginal totals.

Maximum-likelihood estimation of parameterized wavefronts from multifocal data

PubMed Central

Sakamoto, Julia A.; Barrett, Harrison H.

2012-01-01

A method for determining the pupil phase distribution of an optical system is demonstrated. Coefficients in a wavefront expansion were estimated using likelihood methods, where the data consisted of multiple irradiance patterns near focus. Proof-of-principle results were obtained in both simulation and experiment. Large-aberration wavefronts were handled in the numerical study. Experimentally, we discuss the handling of nuisance parameters. Fisher information matrices, Cramér-Rao bounds, and likelihood surfaces are examined. ML estimates were obtained by simulated annealing to deal with numerous local extrema in the likelihood function. Rapid processing techniques were employed to reduce the computational time. PMID:22772282

Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models for double bounded environmental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer, Fábio Mariano; Bayer, Débora Missio; Pumi, Guilherme

2017-12-01

In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval (a,b) following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The Kumaraswamy family of distribution is widely applied in many areas, especially hydrology and related fields. Classical examples are time series representing rates and proportions observed over time. In the proposed KARMA model, the median is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms, time-varying regressors, unknown parameters and a link function. We introduce the new class of models and discuss conditional maximum likelihood estimation, hypothesis testing inference, diagnostic analysis and forecasting. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions for the conditional score vector and conditional Fisher information matrix. An application to environmental real data is presented and discussed.

A tree island approach to inferring phylogeny in the ant subfamily Formicinae, with especial reference to the evolution of weaving.

PubMed

Johnson, Rebecca N; Agapow, Paul-Michael; Crozier, Ross H

2003-11-01

The ant subfamily Formicinae is a large assemblage (2458 species (J. Nat. Hist. 29 (1995) 1037), including species that weave leaf nests together with larval silk and in which the metapleural gland-the ancestrally defining ant character-has been secondarily lost. We used sequences from two mitochondrial genes (cytochrome b and cytochrome oxidase 2) from 18 formicine and 4 outgroup taxa to derive a robust phylogeny, employing a search for tree islands using 10000 randomly constructed trees as starting points and deriving a maximum likelihood consensus tree from the ML tree and those not significantly different from it. Non-parametric bootstrapping showed that the ML consensus tree fit the data significantly better than three scenarios based on morphology, with that of Bolton (Identification Guide to the Ant Genera of the World, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA) being the best among these alternative trees. Trait mapping showed that weaving had arisen at least four times and possibly been lost once. A maximum likelihood analysis showed that loss of the metapleural gland is significantly associated with the weaver life-pattern. The graph of the frequencies with which trees were discovered versus their likelihood indicates that trees with high likelihoods have much larger basins of attraction than those with lower likelihoods. While this result indicates that single searches are more likely to find high- than low-likelihood tree islands, it also indicates that searching only for the single best tree may lose important information.

Occupancy Modeling Species-Environment Relationships with Non-ignorable Survey Designs.

PubMed

Irvine, Kathryn M; Rodhouse, Thomas J; Wright, Wilson J; Olsen, Anthony R

2018-05-26

Statistical models supporting inferences about species occurrence patterns in relation to environmental gradients are fundamental to ecology and conservation biology. A common implicit assumption is that the sampling design is ignorable and does not need to be formally accounted for in analyses. The analyst assumes data are representative of the desired population and statistical modeling proceeds. However, if datasets from probability and non-probability surveys are combined or unequal selection probabilities are used, the design may be non ignorable. We outline the use of pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation for site-occupancy models to account for such non-ignorable survey designs. This estimation method accounts for the survey design by properly weighting the pseudo-likelihood equation. In our empirical example, legacy and newer randomly selected locations were surveyed for bats to bridge a historic statewide effort with an ongoing nationwide program. We provide a worked example using bat acoustic detection/non-detection data and show how analysts can diagnose whether their design is ignorable. Using simulations we assessed whether our approach is viable for modeling datasets composed of sites contributed outside of a probability design Pseudo-maximum likelihood estimates differed from the usual maximum likelihood occu31 pancy estimates for some bat species. Using simulations we show the maximum likelihood estimator of species-environment relationships with non-ignorable sampling designs was biased, whereas the pseudo-likelihood estimator was design-unbiased. However, in our simulation study the designs composed of a large proportion of legacy or non-probability sites resulted in estimation issues for standard errors. These issues were likely a result of highly variable weights confounded by small sample sizes (5% or 10% sampling intensity and 4 revisits). Aggregating datasets from multiple sources logically supports larger sample sizes and potentially increases spatial extents for statistical inferences. Our results suggest that ignoring the mechanism for how locations were selected for data collection (e.g., the sampling design) could result in erroneous model-based conclusions. Therefore, in order to ensure robust and defensible recommendations for evidence-based conservation decision-making, the survey design information in addition to the data themselves must be available for analysts. Details for constructing the weights used in estimation and code for implementation are provided. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

DSN telemetry system performance using a maximum likelihood convolutional decoder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benjauthrit, B.; Kemp, R. P.

1977-01-01

Results are described of telemetry system performance testing using DSN equipment and a Maximum Likelihood Convolutional Decoder (MCD) for code rates 1/2 and 1/3, constraint length 7 and special test software. The test results confirm the superiority of the rate 1/3 over that of the rate 1/2. The overall system performance losses determined at the output of the Symbol Synchronizer Assembly are less than 0.5 db for both code rates. Comparison of the performance is also made with existing mathematical models. Error statistics of the decoded data are examined. The MCD operational threshold is found to be about 1.96 db.

Multifrequency InSAR height reconstruction through maximum likelihood estimation of local planes parameters.

PubMed

Pascazio, Vito; Schirinzi, Gilda

2002-01-01

In this paper, a technique that is able to reconstruct highly sloped and discontinuous terrain height profiles, starting from multifrequency wrapped phase acquired by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) systems, is presented. We propose an innovative unwrapping method, based on a maximum likelihood estimation technique, which uses multifrequency independent phase data, obtained by filtering the interferometric SAR raw data pair through nonoverlapping band-pass filters, and approximating the unknown surface by means of local planes. Since the method does not exploit the phase gradient, it assures the uniqueness of the solution, even in the case of highly sloped or piecewise continuous elevation patterns with strong discontinuities.

Soft decoding a self-dual (48, 24; 12) code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomon, G.

1993-01-01

A self-dual (48,24;12) code comes from restricting a binary cyclic (63,18;36) code to a 6 x 7 matrix, adding an eighth all-zero column, and then adjoining six dimensions to this extended 6 x 8 matrix. These six dimensions are generated by linear combinations of row permutations of a 6 x 8 matrix of weight 12, whose sums of rows and columns add to one. A soft decoding using these properties and approximating maximum likelihood is presented here. This is preliminary to a possible soft decoding of the box (72,36;15) code that promises a 7.7-dB theoretical coding under maximum likelihood.

Effects of time-shifted data on flight determined stability and control derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steers, S. T.; Iliff, K. W.

1975-01-01

Flight data were shifted in time by various increments to assess the effects of time shifts on estimates of stability and control derivatives produced by a maximum likelihood estimation method. Derivatives could be extracted from flight data with the maximum likelihood estimation method even if there was a considerable time shift in the data. Time shifts degraded the estimates of the derivatives, but the degradation was in a consistent rather than a random pattern. Time shifts in the control variables caused the most degradation, and the lateral-directional rotary derivatives were affected the most by time shifts in any variable.

Minimum distance classification in remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wacker, A. G.; Landgrebe, D. A.

1972-01-01

The utilization of minimum distance classification methods in remote sensing problems, such as crop species identification, is considered. Literature concerning both minimum distance classification problems and distance measures is reviewed. Experimental results are presented for several examples. The objective of these examples is to: (a) compare the sample classification accuracy of a minimum distance classifier, with the vector classification accuracy of a maximum likelihood classifier, and (b) compare the accuracy of a parametric minimum distance classifier with that of a nonparametric one. Results show the minimum distance classifier performance is 5% to 10% better than that of the maximum likelihood classifier. The nonparametric classifier is only slightly better than the parametric version.

Case-Deletion Diagnostics for Maximum Likelihood Multipoint Quantitative Trait Locus Linkage Analysis

PubMed Central

Mendoza, Maria C.B.; Burns, Trudy L.; Jones, Michael P.

2009-01-01

Objectives Case-deletion diagnostic methods are tools that allow identification of influential observations that may affect parameter estimates and model fitting conclusions. The goal of this paper was to develop two case-deletion diagnostics, the exact case deletion (ECD) and the empirical influence function (EIF), for detecting outliers that can affect results of sib-pair maximum likelihood quantitative trait locus (QTL) linkage analysis. Methods Subroutines to compute the ECD and EIF were incorporated into the maximum likelihood QTL variance estimation components of the linkage analysis program MAPMAKER/SIBS. Performance of the diagnostics was compared in simulation studies that evaluated the proportion of outliers correctly identified (sensitivity), and the proportion of non-outliers correctly identified (specificity). Results Simulations involving nuclear family data sets with one outlier showed EIF sensitivities approximated ECD sensitivities well for outlier-affected parameters. Sensitivities were high, indicating the outlier was identified a high proportion of the time. Simulations also showed the enormous computational time advantage of the EIF. Diagnostics applied to body mass index in nuclear families detected observations influential on the lod score and model parameter estimates. Conclusions The EIF is a practical diagnostic tool that has the advantages of high sensitivity and quick computation. PMID:19172086

Fitting distributions to microbial contamination data collected with an unequal probability sampling design.

PubMed

Williams, M S; Ebel, E D; Cao, Y

2013-01-01

The fitting of statistical distributions to microbial sampling data is a common application in quantitative microbiology and risk assessment applications. An underlying assumption of most fitting techniques is that data are collected with simple random sampling, which is often times not the case. This study develops a weighted maximum likelihood estimation framework that is appropriate for microbiological samples that are collected with unequal probabilities of selection. A weighted maximum likelihood estimation framework is proposed for microbiological samples that are collected with unequal probabilities of selection. Two examples, based on the collection of food samples during processing, are provided to demonstrate the method and highlight the magnitude of biases in the maximum likelihood estimator when data are inappropriately treated as a simple random sample. Failure to properly weight samples to account for how data are collected can introduce substantial biases into inferences drawn from the data. The proposed methodology will reduce or eliminate an important source of bias in inferences drawn from the analysis of microbial data. This will also make comparisons between studies and the combination of results from different studies more reliable, which is important for risk assessment applications. © 2012 No claim to US Government works.

RAxML-VI-HPC: maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic analyses with thousands of taxa and mixed models.

PubMed

Stamatakis, Alexandros

2006-11-01

RAxML-VI-HPC (randomized axelerated maximum likelihood for high performance computing) is a sequential and parallel program for inference of large phylogenies with maximum likelihood (ML). Low-level technical optimizations, a modification of the search algorithm, and the use of the GTR+CAT approximation as replacement for GTR+Gamma yield a program that is between 2.7 and 52 times faster than the previous version of RAxML. A large-scale performance comparison with GARLI, PHYML, IQPNNI and MrBayes on real data containing 1000 up to 6722 taxa shows that RAxML requires at least 5.6 times less main memory and yields better trees in similar times than the best competing program (GARLI) on datasets up to 2500 taxa. On datasets > or =4000 taxa it also runs 2-3 times faster than GARLI. RAxML has been parallelized with MPI to conduct parallel multiple bootstraps and inferences on distinct starting trees. The program has been used to compute ML trees on two of the largest alignments to date containing 25,057 (1463 bp) and 2182 (51,089 bp) taxa, respectively. icwww.epfl.ch/~stamatak

Normal Theory Two-Stage ML Estimator When Data Are Missing at the Item Level

PubMed Central

Savalei, Victoria; Rhemtulla, Mijke

2017-01-01

In many modeling contexts, the variables in the model are linear composites of the raw items measured for each participant; for instance, regression and path analysis models rely on scale scores, and structural equation models often use parcels as indicators of latent constructs. Currently, no analytic estimation method exists to appropriately handle missing data at the item level. Item-level multiple imputation (MI), however, can handle such missing data straightforwardly. In this article, we develop an analytic approach for dealing with item-level missing data—that is, one that obtains a unique set of parameter estimates directly from the incomplete data set and does not require imputations. The proposed approach is a variant of the two-stage maximum likelihood (TSML) methodology, and it is the analytic equivalent of item-level MI. We compare the new TSML approach to three existing alternatives for handling item-level missing data: scale-level full information maximum likelihood, available-case maximum likelihood, and item-level MI. We find that the TSML approach is the best analytic approach, and its performance is similar to item-level MI. We recommend its implementation in popular software and its further study. PMID:29276371

Determining crop residue type and class using satellite acquired data. M.S. Thesis Progress Report, Jun. 1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhuang, Xin

1990-01-01

LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) data for March 23, 1987 with accompanying ground truth data for the study area in Miami County, IN were used to determine crop residue type and class. Principle components and spectral ratioing transformations were applied to the LANDSAT TM data. One graphic information system (GIS) layer of land ownership was added to each original image as the eighth band of data in an attempt to improve classification. Maximum likelihood, minimum distance, and neural networks were used to classify the original, transformed, and GIS-enhanced remotely sensed data. Crop residues could be separated from one another and from bare soil and other biomass. Two types of crop residue and four classes were identified from each LANDSAT TM image. The maximum likelihood classifier performed the best classification for each original image without need of any transformation. The neural network classifier was able to improve the classification by incorporating a GIS-layer of land ownership as an eighth band of data. The maximum likelihood classifier was unable to consider this eighth band of data and thus, its results could not be improved by its consideration.

Normal Theory Two-Stage ML Estimator When Data Are Missing at the Item Level.

PubMed

Savalei, Victoria; Rhemtulla, Mijke

2017-08-01

In many modeling contexts, the variables in the model are linear composites of the raw items measured for each participant; for instance, regression and path analysis models rely on scale scores, and structural equation models often use parcels as indicators of latent constructs. Currently, no analytic estimation method exists to appropriately handle missing data at the item level. Item-level multiple imputation (MI), however, can handle such missing data straightforwardly. In this article, we develop an analytic approach for dealing with item-level missing data-that is, one that obtains a unique set of parameter estimates directly from the incomplete data set and does not require imputations. The proposed approach is a variant of the two-stage maximum likelihood (TSML) methodology, and it is the analytic equivalent of item-level MI. We compare the new TSML approach to three existing alternatives for handling item-level missing data: scale-level full information maximum likelihood, available-case maximum likelihood, and item-level MI. We find that the TSML approach is the best analytic approach, and its performance is similar to item-level MI. We recommend its implementation in popular software and its further study.

Maximum-Entropy Inference with a Programmable Annealer

PubMed Central

Chancellor, Nicholas; Szoke, Szilard; Vinci, Walter; Aeppli, Gabriel; Warburton, Paul A.

2016-01-01

Optimisation problems typically involve finding the ground state (i.e. the minimum energy configuration) of a cost function with respect to many variables. If the variables are corrupted by noise then this maximises the likelihood that the solution is correct. The maximum entropy solution on the other hand takes the form of a Boltzmann distribution over the ground and excited states of the cost function to correct for noise. Here we use a programmable annealer for the information decoding problem which we simulate as a random Ising model in a field. We show experimentally that finite temperature maximum entropy decoding can give slightly better bit-error-rates than the maximum likelihood approach, confirming that useful information can be extracted from the excited states of the annealer. Furthermore we introduce a bit-by-bit analytical method which is agnostic to the specific application and use it to show that the annealer samples from a highly Boltzmann-like distribution. Machines of this kind are therefore candidates for use in a variety of machine learning applications which exploit maximum entropy inference, including language processing and image recognition. PMID:26936311

Ancestral sequence reconstruction in primate mitochondrial DNA: compositional bias and effect on functional inference.

PubMed

Krishnan, Neeraja M; Seligmann, Hervé; Stewart, Caro-Beth; De Koning, A P Jason; Pollock, David D

2004-10-01

Reconstruction of ancestral DNA and amino acid sequences is an important means of inferring information about past evolutionary events. Such reconstructions suggest changes in molecular function and evolutionary processes over the course of evolution and are used to infer adaptation and convergence. Maximum likelihood (ML) is generally thought to provide relatively accurate reconstructed sequences compared to parsimony, but both methods lead to the inference of multiple directional changes in nucleotide frequencies in primate mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). To better understand this surprising result, as well as to better understand how parsimony and ML differ, we constructed a series of computationally simple "conditional pathway" methods that differed in the number of substitutions allowed per site along each branch, and we also evaluated the entire Bayesian posterior frequency distribution of reconstructed ancestral states. We analyzed primate mitochondrial cytochrome b (Cyt-b) and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) genes and found that ML reconstructs ancestral frequencies that are often more different from tip sequences than are parsimony reconstructions. In contrast, frequency reconstructions based on the posterior ensemble more closely resemble extant nucleotide frequencies. Simulations indicate that these differences in ancestral sequence inference are probably due to deterministic bias caused by high uncertainty in the optimization-based ancestral reconstruction methods (parsimony, ML, Bayesian maximum a posteriori). In contrast, ancestral nucleotide frequencies based on an average of the Bayesian set of credible ancestral sequences are much less biased. The methods involving simpler conditional pathway calculations have slightly reduced likelihood values compared to full likelihood calculations, but they can provide fairly unbiased nucleotide reconstructions and may be useful in more complex phylogenetic analyses than considered here due to their speed and flexibility. To determine whether biased reconstructions using optimization methods might affect inferences of functional properties, ancestral primate mitochondrial tRNA sequences were inferred and helix-forming propensities for conserved pairs were evaluated in silico. For ambiguously reconstructed nucleotides at sites with high base composition variability, ancestral tRNA sequences from Bayesian analyses were more compatible with canonical base pairing than were those inferred by other methods. Thus, nucleotide bias in reconstructed sequences apparently can lead to serious bias and inaccuracies in functional predictions.

Phylogenetically marking the limits of the genus Fusarium for post-Article 59 usage

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fusarium (Hypocreales, Nectriaceae) is one of the most important and systematically challenging groups of mycotoxigenic, plant pathogenic, and human pathogenic fungi. We conducted maximum likelihood (ML), maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian (B) analyses on partial nucleotide sequences of genes encod...

Determining the linkage of disease-resistance genes to molecular markers: the LOD-SCORE method revisited with regard to necessary sample sizes.

PubMed

Hühn, M

1995-05-01

Some approaches to molecular marker-assisted linkage detection for a dominant disease-resistance trait based on a segregating F2 population are discussed. Analysis of two-point linkage is carried out by the traditional measure of maximum lod score. It depends on (1) the maximum-likelihood estimate of the recombination fraction between the marker and the disease-resistance gene locus, (2) the observed absolute frequencies, and (3) the unknown number of tested individuals. If one replaces the absolute frequencies by expressions depending on the unknown sample size and the maximum-likelihood estimate of recombination value, the conventional rule for significant linkage (maximum lod score exceeds a given linkage threshold) can be resolved for the sample size. For each sub-population used for linkage analysis [susceptible (= recessive) individuals, resistant (= dominant) individuals, complete F2] this approach gives a lower bound for the necessary number of individuals required for the detection of significant two-point linkage by the lod-score method.

Program for Weibull Analysis of Fatigue Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, Timothy L.

2005-01-01

A Fortran computer program has been written for performing statistical analyses of fatigue-test data that are assumed to be adequately represented by a two-parameter Weibull distribution. This program calculates the following: (1) Maximum-likelihood estimates of the Weibull distribution; (2) Data for contour plots of relative likelihood for two parameters; (3) Data for contour plots of joint confidence regions; (4) Data for the profile likelihood of the Weibull-distribution parameters; (5) Data for the profile likelihood of any percentile of the distribution; and (6) Likelihood-based confidence intervals for parameters and/or percentiles of the distribution. The program can account for tests that are suspended without failure (the statistical term for such suspension of tests is "censoring"). The analytical approach followed in this program for the software is valid for type-I censoring, which is the removal of unfailed units at pre-specified times. Confidence regions and intervals are calculated by use of the likelihood-ratio method.

Poisson point process modeling for polyphonic music transcription.

PubMed

Peeling, Paul; Li, Chung-fai; Godsill, Simon

2007-04-01

Peaks detected in the frequency domain spectrum of a musical chord are modeled as realizations of a nonhomogeneous Poisson point process. When several notes are superimposed to make a chord, the processes for individual notes combine to give another Poisson process, whose likelihood is easily computable. This avoids a data association step linking individual harmonics explicitly with detected peaks in the spectrum. The likelihood function is ideal for Bayesian inference about the unknown note frequencies in a chord. Here, maximum likelihood estimation of fundamental frequencies shows very promising performance on real polyphonic piano music recordings.

Ranking and combining multiple predictors without labeled data

PubMed Central

Parisi, Fabio; Strino, Francesco; Nadler, Boaz; Kluger, Yuval

2014-01-01

In a broad range of classification and decision-making problems, one is given the advice or predictions of several classifiers, of unknown reliability, over multiple questions or queries. This scenario is different from the standard supervised setting, where each classifier’s accuracy can be assessed using available labeled data, and raises two questions: Given only the predictions of several classifiers over a large set of unlabeled test data, is it possible to (i) reliably rank them and (ii) construct a metaclassifier more accurate than most classifiers in the ensemble? Here we present a spectral approach to address these questions. First, assuming conditional independence between classifiers, we show that the off-diagonal entries of their covariance matrix correspond to a rank-one matrix. Moreover, the classifiers can be ranked using the leading eigenvector of this covariance matrix, because its entries are proportional to their balanced accuracies. Second, via a linear approximation to the maximum likelihood estimator, we derive the Spectral Meta-Learner (SML), an unsupervised ensemble classifier whose weights are equal to these eigenvector entries. On both simulated and real data, SML typically achieves a higher accuracy than most classifiers in the ensemble and can provide a better starting point than majority voting for estimating the maximum likelihood solution. Furthermore, SML is robust to the presence of small malicious groups of classifiers designed to veer the ensemble prediction away from the (unknown) ground truth. PMID:24474744

Performance advantages of maximum likelihood methods in PRBS-modulated time-of-flight electron energy loss spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zhongyu

This thesis describes the design, experimental performance, and theoretical simulation of a novel time-of-flight analyzer that was integrated into a high resolution electron energy loss spectrometer (TOF-HREELS). First we examined the use of an interleaved comb chopper for chopping a continuous electron beam. Both static and dynamic behaviors were simulated theoretically and measured experimentally, with very good agreement. The finite penetration of the field beyond the plane of the chopper leads to non-ideal chopper response, which is characterized in terms of an "energy corruption" effect and a lead or lag in the time at which the beam responds to the chopper potential. Second we considered the recovery of spectra from pseudo-random binary sequence (PRBS) modulated TOF-HREELS data. The effects of the Poisson noise distribution and the non-ideal behavior of the "interleaved comb" chopper were simulated. We showed, for the first time, that maximum likelihood methods can be combined with PRBS modulation to achieve resolution enhancement, while properly accounting for the Poisson noise distribution and artifacts introduced by the chopper. Our results indicate that meV resolution, similar to that of modern high resolution electron energy loss spectrometers, can be achieved with a dramatic performance advantage over conventional, serial detection analyzers. To demonstrate the capabilities of the TOF-HREELS instrument, we made measurements on a highly oriented thin film polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) sample. We demonstrated that the TOF-HREELS can achieve a throughput advantage of a factor of 85 compared to the conventional HREELS instrument. Comparisons were made between the experimental results and theoretical simulations. We discuss various factors which affect inversion of PRBS modulated Time of Flight (TOF) data with the Lucy algorithm. Using simulations, we conclude that the convolution assumption was good under the conditions of our experiment. The chopper rise time, Poisson noise, and artifacts of the chopper response are evaluated. Finally, we conclude that the maximum likelihood algorithms are able to gain a multiplex advantage in PRBS modulation, despite the Poisson noise in the detector.

Maximum-likelihood techniques for joint segmentation-classification of multispectral chromosome images.

PubMed

Schwartzkopf, Wade C; Bovik, Alan C; Evans, Brian L

2005-12-01

Traditional chromosome imaging has been limited to grayscale images, but recently a 5-fluorophore combinatorial labeling technique (M-FISH) was developed wherein each class of chromosomes binds with a different combination of fluorophores. This results in a multispectral image, where each class of chromosomes has distinct spectral components. In this paper, we develop new methods for automatic chromosome identification by exploiting the multispectral information in M-FISH chromosome images and by jointly performing chromosome segmentation and classification. We (1) develop a maximum-likelihood hypothesis test that uses multispectral information, together with conventional criteria, to select the best segmentation possibility; (2) use this likelihood function to combine chromosome segmentation and classification into a robust chromosome identification system; and (3) show that the proposed likelihood function can also be used as a reliable indicator of errors in segmentation, errors in classification, and chromosome anomalies, which can be indicators of radiation damage, cancer, and a wide variety of inherited diseases. We show that the proposed multispectral joint segmentation-classification method outperforms past grayscale segmentation methods when decomposing touching chromosomes. We also show that it outperforms past M-FISH classification techniques that do not use segmentation information.

Mitigating Multipath Bias Using a Dual-Polarization Antenna: Theoretical Performance, Algorithm Design, and Simulation

PubMed Central

Xie, Lin; Cui, Xiaowei; Zhao, Sihao; Lu, Mingquan

2017-01-01

It is well known that multipath effect remains a dominant error source that affects the positioning accuracy of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers. Significant efforts have been made by researchers and receiver manufacturers to mitigate multipath error in the past decades. Recently, a multipath mitigation technique using dual-polarization antennas has become a research hotspot for it provides another degree of freedom to distinguish the line-of-sight (LOS) signal from the LOS and multipath composite signal without extensively increasing the complexity of the receiver. Numbers of multipath mitigation techniques using dual-polarization antennas have been proposed and all of them report performance improvement over the single-polarization methods. However, due to the unpredictability of multipath, multipath mitigation techniques based on dual-polarization are not always effective while few studies discuss the condition under which the multipath mitigation using a dual-polarization antenna can outperform that using a single-polarization antenna, which is a fundamental question for dual-polarization multipath mitigation (DPMM) and the design of multipath mitigation algorithms. In this paper we analyze the characteristics of the signal received by a dual-polarization antenna and use the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to assess the theoretical performance of DPMM in different received signal cases. Based on the assessment we answer this fundamental question and find the dual-polarization antenna’s capability in mitigating short delay multipath—the most challenging one among all types of multipath for the majority of the multipath mitigation techniques. Considering these effective conditions, we propose a dual-polarization sequential iterative maximum likelihood estimation (DP-SIMLE) algorithm for DPMM. The simulation results verify our theory and show superior performance of the proposed DP-SIMLE algorithm over the traditional one using only an RHCP antenna. PMID:28208832

Testing the non-unity of rate ratio under inverse sampling.

PubMed

Tang, Man-Lai; Liao, Yi Jie; Ng, Hong Keung Tony; Chan, Ping Shing

2007-08-01

Inverse sampling is considered to be a more appropriate sampling scheme than the usual binomial sampling scheme when subjects arrive sequentially, when the underlying response of interest is acute, and when maximum likelihood estimators of some epidemiologic indices are undefined. In this article, we study various statistics for testing non-unity rate ratios in case-control studies under inverse sampling. These include the Wald, unconditional score, likelihood ratio and conditional score statistics. Three methods (the asymptotic, conditional exact, and Mid-P methods) are adopted for P-value calculation. We evaluate the performance of different combinations of test statistics and P-value calculation methods in terms of their empirical sizes and powers via Monte Carlo simulation. In general, asymptotic score and conditional score tests are preferable for their actual type I error rates are well controlled around the pre-chosen nominal level, and their powers are comparatively the largest. The exact version of Wald test is recommended if one wants to control the actual type I error rate at or below the pre-chosen nominal level. If larger power is expected and fluctuation of sizes around the pre-chosen nominal level are allowed, then the Mid-P version of Wald test is a desirable alternative. We illustrate the methodologies with a real example from a heart disease study. (c) 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Exploiting Non-sequence Data in Dynamic Model Learning

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

For our experiments here and in Section 3.5, we implement the proposed algorithms in MATLAB and use the maximum directed spanning tree solver...embarrassingly parallelizable, whereas PM’s maximum directed spanning tree procedure is harder to parallelize. In this experiment, our MATLAB ...some estimation problems, this approach is able to give unique and consistent estimates while the maximum- likelihood method gets entangled in

Assessment of Characteristic Function Modulus of Vibroacoustic Signal Given a Limit State Parameter of Diagnosed Equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostyukov, V. N.; Naumenko, A. P.; Kudryavtseva, I. S.

2018-01-01

Improvement of distinguishing criteria, determining defects of machinery and mechanisms, by vibroacoustic signals is a recent problem for technical diagnostics. The work objective is assessment of instantaneous values by methods of statistical decision making theory and risk of regulatory values of characteristic function modulus. The modulus of the characteristic function is determined given a fixed parameter of the characteristic function. It is possible to determine the limits of the modulus, which correspond to different machine’s condition. The data of the modulus values are used as diagnostic features in the vibration diagnostics and monitoring systems. Using such static decision-making methods as: minimum number of wrong decisions, maximum likelihood, minimax, Neumann-Pearson characteristic function modulus limits are determined, separating conditions of a diagnosed object.

Adaptive decoding of convolutional codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hueske, K.; Geldmacher, J.; Götze, J.

2007-06-01

Convolutional codes, which are frequently used as error correction codes in digital transmission systems, are generally decoded using the Viterbi Decoder. On the one hand the Viterbi Decoder is an optimum maximum likelihood decoder, i.e. the most probable transmitted code sequence is obtained. On the other hand the mathematical complexity of the algorithm only depends on the used code, not on the number of transmission errors. To reduce the complexity of the decoding process for good transmission conditions, an alternative syndrome based decoder is presented. The reduction of complexity is realized by two different approaches, the syndrome zero sequence deactivation and the path metric equalization. The two approaches enable an easy adaptation of the decoding complexity for different transmission conditions, which results in a trade-off between decoding complexity and error correction performance.

Lateral stability and control derivatives of a jet fighter airplane extracted from flight test data by utilizing maximum likelihood estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parrish, R. V.; Steinmetz, G. G.

1972-01-01

A method of parameter extraction for stability and control derivatives of aircraft from flight test data, implementing maximum likelihood estimation, has been developed and successfully applied to actual lateral flight test data from a modern sophisticated jet fighter. This application demonstrates the important role played by the analyst in combining engineering judgment and estimator statistics to yield meaningful results. During the analysis, the problems of uniqueness of the extracted set of parameters and of longitudinal coupling effects were encountered and resolved. The results for all flight runs are presented in tabular form and as time history comparisons between the estimated states and the actual flight test data.

Effect of sampling rate and record length on the determination of stability and control derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, M. J.; Iliff, K. W.; Whitman, R. K.

1978-01-01

Flight data from five aircraft were used to assess the effects of sampling rate and record length reductions on estimates of stability and control derivatives produced by a maximum likelihood estimation method. Derivatives could be extracted from flight data with the maximum likelihood estimation method even if there were considerable reductions in sampling rate and/or record length. Small amplitude pulse maneuvers showed greater degradation of the derivative maneuvers than large amplitude pulse maneuvers when these reductions were made. Reducing the sampling rate was found to be more desirable than reducing the record length as a method of lessening the total computation time required without greatly degrading the quantity of the estimates.

Nonparametric probability density estimation by optimization theoretic techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, D. W.

1976-01-01

Two nonparametric probability density estimators are considered. The first is the kernel estimator. The problem of choosing the kernel scaling factor based solely on a random sample is addressed. An interactive mode is discussed and an algorithm proposed to choose the scaling factor automatically. The second nonparametric probability estimate uses penalty function techniques with the maximum likelihood criterion. A discrete maximum penalized likelihood estimator is proposed and is shown to be consistent in the mean square error. A numerical implementation technique for the discrete solution is discussed and examples displayed. An extensive simulation study compares the integrated mean square error of the discrete and kernel estimators. The robustness of the discrete estimator is demonstrated graphically.

Characterization, parameter estimation, and aircraft response statistics of atmospheric turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mark, W. D.

1981-01-01

A nonGaussian three component model of atmospheric turbulence is postulated that accounts for readily observable features of turbulence velocity records, their autocorrelation functions, and their spectra. Methods for computing probability density functions and mean exceedance rates of a generic aircraft response variable are developed using nonGaussian turbulence characterizations readily extracted from velocity recordings. A maximum likelihood method is developed for optimal estimation of the integral scale and intensity of records possessing von Karman transverse of longitudinal spectra. Formulas for the variances of such parameter estimates are developed. The maximum likelihood and least-square approaches are combined to yield a method for estimating the autocorrelation function parameters of a two component model for turbulence.

Deterministic quantum annealing expectation-maximization algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyahara, Hideyuki; Tsumura, Koji; Sughiyama, Yuki

2017-11-01

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is one of the most important methods in machine learning, and the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is often used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates. However, EM heavily depends on initial configurations and fails to find the global optimum. On the other hand, in the field of physics, quantum annealing (QA) was proposed as a novel optimization approach. Motivated by QA, we propose a quantum annealing extension of EM, which we call the deterministic quantum annealing expectation-maximization (DQAEM) algorithm. We also discuss its advantage in terms of the path integral formulation. Furthermore, by employing numerical simulations, we illustrate how DQAEM works in MLE and show that DQAEM moderate the problem of local optima in EM.

Nonlinear phase noise tolerance for coherent optical systems using soft-decision-aided ML carrier phase estimation enhanced with constellation partitioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yan; Wu, Mingwei; Du, Xinwei; Xu, Zhuoran; Gurusamy, Mohan; Yu, Changyuan; Kam, Pooi-Yuen

2018-02-01

A novel soft-decision-aided maximum likelihood (SDA-ML) carrier phase estimation method and its simplified version, the decision-aided and soft-decision-aided maximum likelihood (DA-SDA-ML) methods are tested in a nonlinear phase noise-dominant channel. The numerical performance results show that both the SDA-ML and DA-SDA-ML methods outperform the conventional DA-ML in systems with constant-amplitude modulation formats. In addition, modified algorithms based on constellation partitioning are proposed. With partitioning, the modified SDA-ML and DA-SDA-ML are shown to be useful for compensating the nonlinear phase noise in multi-level modulation systems.

User's manual for MMLE3, a general FORTRAN program for maximum likelihood parameter estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maine, R. E.; Iliff, K. W.

1980-01-01

A user's manual for the FORTRAN IV computer program MMLE3 is described. It is a maximum likelihood parameter estimation program capable of handling general bilinear dynamic equations of arbitrary order with measurement noise and/or state noise (process noise). The theory and use of the program is described. The basic MMLE3 program is quite general and, therefore, applicable to a wide variety of problems. The basic program can interact with a set of user written problem specific routines to simplify the use of the program on specific systems. A set of user routines for the aircraft stability and control derivative estimation problem is provided with the program.

Approximate maximum likelihood decoding of block codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenberger, H. J.

1979-01-01

Approximate maximum likelihood decoding algorithms, based upon selecting a small set of candidate code words with the aid of the estimated probability of error of each received symbol, can give performance close to optimum with a reasonable amount of computation. By combining the best features of various algorithms and taking care to perform each step as efficiently as possible, a decoding scheme was developed which can decode codes which have better performance than those presently in use and yet not require an unreasonable amount of computation. The discussion of the details and tradeoffs of presently known efficient optimum and near optimum decoding algorithms leads, naturally, to the one which embodies the best features of all of them.

The amplitude and spectral index of the large angular scale anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganga, Ken; Page, Lyman; Cheng, Edward; Meyer, Stephan

1994-01-01

In many cosmological models, the large angular scale anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background is parameterized by a spectral index, n, and a quadrupolar amplitude, Q. For a Harrison-Peebles-Zel'dovich spectrum, n = 1. Using data from the Far Infrared Survey (FIRS) and a new statistical measure, a contour plot of the likelihood for cosmological models for which -1 less than n less than 3 and 0 equal to or less than Q equal to or less than 50 micro K is obtained. Depending upon the details of the analysis, the maximum likelihood occurs at n between 0.8 and 1.4 and Q between 18 and 21 micro K. Regardless of Q, the likelihood is always less than half its maximum for n less than -0.4 and for n greater than 2.2, as it is for Q less than 8 micro K and Q greater than 44 micro K.

Study of sensor spectral responses and data processing algorithms and architectures for onboard feature identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huck, F. O.; Davis, R. E.; Fales, C. L.; Aherron, R. M.

1982-01-01

A computational model of the deterministic and stochastic processes involved in remote sensing is used to study spectral feature identification techniques for real-time onboard processing of data acquired with advanced earth-resources sensors. Preliminary results indicate that: Narrow spectral responses are advantageous; signal normalization improves mean-square distance (MSD) classification accuracy but tends to degrade maximum-likelihood (MLH) classification accuracy; and MSD classification of normalized signals performs better than the computationally more complex MLH classification when imaging conditions change appreciably from those conditions during which reference data were acquired. The results also indicate that autonomous categorization of TM signals into vegetation, bare land, water, snow and clouds can be accomplished with adequate reliability for many applications over a reasonably wide range of imaging conditions. However, further analysis is required to develop computationally efficient boundary approximation algorithms for such categorization.

Rigorous control conditions diminish treatment effects in weight loss randomized controlled trials

PubMed Central

Dawson, John A.; Kaiser, Kathryn A.; Affuso, Olivia; Cutter, Gary R.; Allison, David B.

2015-01-01

Background It has not been established whether control conditions with large weight losses (WLs) diminish expected treatment effects in WL or prevention of weight gain (PWG) randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Subjects/Methods We performed a meta-analysis of 239 WL/PWG RCTs that include a control group and at least one treatment group. A maximum likelihood meta-analysis framework is used in order to model and understand the relationship between treatment effects and control group outcomes. Results Under the informed model, an increase in control group WL of one kilogram corresponds with an expected shrinkage of the treatment effect by 0.309 kg [95% CI (−0.480, −0.138), p = 0.00081]; this result is robust against violations of the model assumptions. Conclusions We find that control conditions with large weight losses diminish expected treatment effects. Our investigation may be helpful to clinicians as they design future WL/PWG studies. PMID:26449419

Accuracy of maximum likelihood estimates of a two-state model in single-molecule FRET

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gopich, Irina V.

2015-01-21

Photon sequences from single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) experiments can be analyzed using a maximum likelihood method. Parameters of the underlying kinetic model (FRET efficiencies of the states and transition rates between conformational states) are obtained by maximizing the appropriate likelihood function. In addition, the errors (uncertainties) of the extracted parameters can be obtained from the curvature of the likelihood function at the maximum. We study the standard deviations of the parameters of a two-state model obtained from photon sequences with recorded colors and arrival times. The standard deviations can be obtained analytically in a special case when themore » FRET efficiencies of the states are 0 and 1 and in the limiting cases of fast and slow conformational dynamics. These results are compared with the results of numerical simulations. The accuracy and, therefore, the ability to predict model parameters depend on how fast the transition rates are compared to the photon count rate. In the limit of slow transitions, the key parameters that determine the accuracy are the number of transitions between the states and the number of independent photon sequences. In the fast transition limit, the accuracy is determined by the small fraction of photons that are correlated with their neighbors. The relative standard deviation of the relaxation rate has a “chevron” shape as a function of the transition rate in the log-log scale. The location of the minimum of this function dramatically depends on how well the FRET efficiencies of the states are separated.« less

Accuracy of maximum likelihood estimates of a two-state model in single-molecule FRET

PubMed Central

Gopich, Irina V.

2015-01-01

Photon sequences from single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) experiments can be analyzed using a maximum likelihood method. Parameters of the underlying kinetic model (FRET efficiencies of the states and transition rates between conformational states) are obtained by maximizing the appropriate likelihood function. In addition, the errors (uncertainties) of the extracted parameters can be obtained from the curvature of the likelihood function at the maximum. We study the standard deviations of the parameters of a two-state model obtained from photon sequences with recorded colors and arrival times. The standard deviations can be obtained analytically in a special case when the FRET efficiencies of the states are 0 and 1 and in the limiting cases of fast and slow conformational dynamics. These results are compared with the results of numerical simulations. The accuracy and, therefore, the ability to predict model parameters depend on how fast the transition rates are compared to the photon count rate. In the limit of slow transitions, the key parameters that determine the accuracy are the number of transitions between the states and the number of independent photon sequences. In the fast transition limit, the accuracy is determined by the small fraction of photons that are correlated with their neighbors. The relative standard deviation of the relaxation rate has a “chevron” shape as a function of the transition rate in the log-log scale. The location of the minimum of this function dramatically depends on how well the FRET efficiencies of the states are separated. PMID:25612692

Bayesian image reconstruction - The pixon and optimal image modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pina, R. K.; Puetter, R. C.

1993-01-01

In this paper we describe the optimal image model, maximum residual likelihood method (OptMRL) for image reconstruction. OptMRL is a Bayesian image reconstruction technique for removing point-spread function blurring. OptMRL uses both a goodness-of-fit criterion (GOF) and an 'image prior', i.e., a function which quantifies the a priori probability of the image. Unlike standard maximum entropy methods, which typically reconstruct the image on the data pixel grid, OptMRL varies the image model in order to find the optimal functional basis with which to represent the image. We show how an optimal basis for image representation can be selected and in doing so, develop the concept of the 'pixon' which is a generalized image cell from which this basis is constructed. By allowing both the image and the image representation to be variable, the OptMRL method greatly increases the volume of solution space over which the image is optimized. Hence the likelihood of the final reconstructed image is greatly increased. For the goodness-of-fit criterion, OptMRL uses the maximum residual likelihood probability distribution introduced previously by Pina and Puetter (1992). This GOF probability distribution, which is based on the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals, has the advantage that it ensures spatially uncorrelated image reconstruction residuals.

Monte Carlo studies of ocean wind vector measurements by SCATT: Objective criteria and maximum likelihood estimates for removal of aliases, and effects of cell size on accuracy of vector winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, W. J.

1982-01-01

The scatterometer on the National Oceanic Satellite System (NOSS) is studied by means of Monte Carlo techniques so as to determine the effect of two additional antennas for alias (or ambiguity) removal by means of an objective criteria technique and a normalized maximum likelihood estimator. Cells nominally 10 km by 10 km, 10 km by 50 km, and 50 km by 50 km are simulated for winds of 4, 8, 12 and 24 m/s and incidence angles of 29, 39, 47, and 53.5 deg for 15 deg changes in direction. The normalized maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) is correct a large part of the time, but the objective criterion technique is recommended as a reserve, and more quickly computed, procedure. Both methods for alias removal depend on the differences in the present model function at upwind and downwind. For 10 km by 10 km cells, it is found that the MLE method introduces a correlation between wind speed errors and aspect angle (wind direction) errors that can be as high as 0.8 or 0.9 and that the wind direction errors are unacceptably large, compared to those obtained for the SASS for similar assumptions.

Variational Bayesian Parameter Estimation Techniques for the General Linear Model

PubMed Central

Starke, Ludger; Ostwald, Dirk

2017-01-01

Variational Bayes (VB), variational maximum likelihood (VML), restricted maximum likelihood (ReML), and maximum likelihood (ML) are cornerstone parametric statistical estimation techniques in the analysis of functional neuroimaging data. However, the theoretical underpinnings of these model parameter estimation techniques are rarely covered in introductory statistical texts. Because of the widespread practical use of VB, VML, ReML, and ML in the neuroimaging community, we reasoned that a theoretical treatment of their relationships and their application in a basic modeling scenario may be helpful for both neuroimaging novices and practitioners alike. In this technical study, we thus revisit the conceptual and formal underpinnings of VB, VML, ReML, and ML and provide a detailed account of their mathematical relationships and implementational details. We further apply VB, VML, ReML, and ML to the general linear model (GLM) with non-spherical error covariance as commonly encountered in the first-level analysis of fMRI data. To this end, we explicitly derive the corresponding free energy objective functions and ensuing iterative algorithms. Finally, in the applied part of our study, we evaluate the parameter and model recovery properties of VB, VML, ReML, and ML, first in an exemplary setting and then in the analysis of experimental fMRI data acquired from a single participant under visual stimulation. PMID:28966572

Genetic distances and phylogenetic trees of different Awassi sheep populations based on DNA sequencing.

PubMed

Al-Atiyat, R M; Aljumaah, R S

2014-08-27

This study aimed to estimate evolutionary distances and to reconstruct phylogeny trees between different Awassi sheep populations. Thirty-two sheep individuals from three different geographical areas of Jordan and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) were randomly sampled. DNA was extracted from the tissue samples and sequenced using the T7 promoter universal primer. Different phylogenetic trees were reconstructed from 0.64-kb DNA sequences using the MEGA software with the best general time reverse distance model. Three methods of distance estimation were then used. The maximum composite likelihood test was considered for reconstructing maximum likelihood, neighbor-joining and UPGMA trees. The maximum likelihood tree indicated three major clusters separated by cytosine (C) and thymine (T). The greatest distance was shown between the South sheep and North sheep. On the other hand, the KSA sheep as an outgroup showed shorter evolutionary distance to the North sheep population than to the others. The neighbor-joining and UPGMA trees showed quite reliable clusters of evolutionary differentiation of Jordan sheep populations from the Saudi population. The overall results support geographical information and ecological types of the sheep populations studied. Summing up, the resulting phylogeny trees may contribute to the limited information about the genetic relatedness and phylogeny of Awassi sheep in nearby Arab countries.

Empirical best linear unbiased prediction method for small areas with restricted maximum likelihood and bootstrap procedure to estimate the average of household expenditure per capita in Banjar Regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminah, Agustin Siti; Pawitan, Gandhi; Tantular, Bertho

2017-03-01

So far, most of the data published by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) as data providers for national statistics are still limited to the district level. Less sufficient sample size for smaller area levels to make the measurement of poverty indicators with direct estimation produced high standard error. Therefore, the analysis based on it is unreliable. To solve this problem, the estimation method which can provide a better accuracy by combining survey data and other auxiliary data is required. One method often used for the estimation is the Small Area Estimation (SAE). There are many methods used in SAE, one of them is Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (EBLUP). EBLUP method of maximum likelihood (ML) procedures does not consider the loss of degrees of freedom due to estimating β with β ^. This drawback motivates the use of the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) procedure. This paper proposed EBLUP with REML procedure for estimating poverty indicators by modeling the average of household expenditures per capita and implemented bootstrap procedure to calculate MSE (Mean Square Error) to compare the accuracy EBLUP method with the direct estimation method. Results show that EBLUP method reduced MSE in small area estimation.

ReplacementMatrix: a web server for maximum-likelihood estimation of amino acid replacement rate matrices.

PubMed

Dang, Cuong Cao; Lefort, Vincent; Le, Vinh Sy; Le, Quang Si; Gascuel, Olivier

2011-10-01

Amino acid replacement rate matrices are an essential basis of protein studies (e.g. in phylogenetics and alignment). A number of general purpose matrices have been proposed (e.g. JTT, WAG, LG) since the seminal work of Margaret Dayhoff and co-workers. However, it has been shown that matrices specific to certain protein groups (e.g. mitochondrial) or life domains (e.g. viruses) differ significantly from general average matrices, and thus perform better when applied to the data to which they are dedicated. This Web server implements the maximum-likelihood estimation procedure that was used to estimate LG, and provides a number of tools and facilities. Users upload a set of multiple protein alignments from their domain of interest and receive the resulting matrix by email, along with statistics and comparisons with other matrices. A non-parametric bootstrap is performed optionally to assess the variability of replacement rate estimates. Maximum-likelihood trees, inferred using the estimated rate matrix, are also computed optionally for each input alignment. Finely tuned procedures and up-to-date ML software (PhyML 3.0, XRATE) are combined to perform all these heavy calculations on our clusters. http://www.atgc-montpellier.fr/ReplacementMatrix/ olivier.gascuel@lirmm.fr Supplementary data are available at http://www.atgc-montpellier.fr/ReplacementMatrix/

Superfast maximum-likelihood reconstruction for quantum tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Jiangwei; Zhang, Zhengyun; Ng, Hui Khoon

2017-06-01

Conventional methods for computing maximum-likelihood estimators (MLE) often converge slowly in practical situations, leading to a search for simplifying methods that rely on additional assumptions for their validity. In this work, we provide a fast and reliable algorithm for maximum-likelihood reconstruction that avoids this slow convergence. Our method utilizes the state-of-the-art convex optimization scheme, an accelerated projected-gradient method, that allows one to accommodate the quantum nature of the problem in a different way than in the standard methods. We demonstrate the power of our approach by comparing its performance with other algorithms for n -qubit state tomography. In particular, an eight-qubit situation that purportedly took weeks of computation time in 2005 can now be completed in under a minute for a single set of data, with far higher accuracy than previously possible. This refutes the common claim that MLE reconstruction is slow and reduces the need for alternative methods that often come with difficult-to-verify assumptions. In fact, recent methods assuming Gaussian statistics or relying on compressed sensing ideas are demonstrably inapplicable for the situation under consideration here. Our algorithm can be applied to general optimization problems over the quantum state space; the philosophy of projected gradients can further be utilized for optimization contexts with general constraints.

Varied applications of a new maximum-likelihood code with complete covariance capability. [FERRET, for data adjustment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmittroth, F.

1978-01-01

Applications of a new data-adjustment code are given. The method is based on a maximum-likelihood extension of generalized least-squares methods that allow complete covariance descriptions for the input data and the final adjusted data evaluations. The maximum-likelihood approach is used with a generalized log-normal distribution that provides a way to treat problems with large uncertainties and that circumvents the problem of negative values that can occur for physically positive quantities. The computer code, FERRET, is written to enable the user to apply it to a large variety of problems by modifying only the input subroutine. The following applications are discussed:more » A 75-group a priori damage function is adjusted by as much as a factor of two by use of 14 integral measurements in different reactor spectra. Reactor spectra and dosimeter cross sections are simultaneously adjusted on the basis of both integral measurements and experimental proton-recoil spectra. The simultaneous use of measured reaction rates, measured worths, microscopic measurements, and theoretical models are used to evaluate dosimeter and fission-product cross sections. Applications in the data reduction of neutron cross section measurements and in the evaluation of reactor after-heat are also considered. 6 figures.« less

Richardson-Lucy/maximum likelihood image restoration algorithm for fluorescence microscopy: further testing.

PubMed

Holmes, T J; Liu, Y H

1989-11-15

A maximum likelihood based iterative algorithm adapted from nuclear medicine imaging for noncoherent optical imaging was presented in a previous publication with some initial computer-simulation testing. This algorithm is identical in form to that previously derived in a different way by W. H. Richardson "Bayesian-Based Iterative Method of Image Restoration," J. Opt. Soc. Am. 62, 55-59 (1972) and L. B. Lucy "An Iterative Technique for the Rectification of Observed Distributions," Astron. J. 79, 745-765 (1974). Foreseen applications include superresolution and 3-D fluorescence microscopy. This paper presents further simulation testing of this algorithm and a preliminary experiment with a defocused camera. The simulations show quantified resolution improvement as a function of iteration number, and they show qualitatively the trend in limitations on restored resolution when noise is present in the data. Also shown are results of a simulation in restoring missing-cone information for 3-D imaging. Conclusions are in support of the feasibility of using these methods with real systems, while computational cost and timing estimates indicate that it should be realistic to implement these methods. Itis suggested in the Appendix that future extensions to the maximum likelihood based derivation of this algorithm will address some of the limitations that are experienced with the nonextended form of the algorithm presented here.

The use of copulas to practical estimation of multivariate stochastic differential equation mixed effects models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rupšys, P.

A system of stochastic differential equations (SDE) with mixed-effects parameters and multivariate normal copula density function were used to develop tree height model for Scots pine trees in Lithuania. A two-step maximum likelihood parameter estimation method is used and computational guidelines are given. After fitting the conditional probability density functions to outside bark diameter at breast height, and total tree height, a bivariate normal copula distribution model was constructed. Predictions from the mixed-effects parameters SDE tree height model calculated during this research were compared to the regression tree height equations. The results are implemented in the symbolic computational language MAPLE.

Comparison of stability and control parameters for a light, single-engine, high-winged aircraft using different flight test and parameter estimation techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suit, W. T.; Cannaday, R. L.

1979-01-01

The longitudinal and lateral stability and control parameters for a high wing, general aviation, airplane are examined. Estimations using flight data obtained at various flight conditions within the normal range of the aircraft are presented. The estimations techniques, an output error technique (maximum likelihood) and an equation error technique (linear regression), are presented. The longitudinal static parameters are estimated from climbing, descending, and quasi steady state flight data. The lateral excitations involve a combination of rudder and ailerons. The sensitivity of the aircraft modes of motion to variations in the parameter estimates are discussed.

Modeling of the Terminal Velocities of the Dust Ejected Material by the Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rengel, M.; Küppers, M.; Keller, H. U.; Gutiérrez, P.

We compute the distribution of velocities of the particles ejected by the impact of the projectile released from NASA Deep Impact spacecraft on the nucleus of comet 9P/Tempel 1 on the successive 20 h following the collision. This is performed by the development and use of an ill-conditioned inverse problem approach, whose main ingredients are a set of observations taken by the Narrow Angle Camera (NAC) of OSIRIS onboard the Rosetta spacecraft, and a set of simple models of the expansion of the dust ejecta plume for different velocities. Terminal velocities are derived using a maximum likelihood estimator.

On the quirks of maximum parsimony and likelihood on phylogenetic networks.

PubMed

Bryant, Christopher; Fischer, Mareike; Linz, Simone; Semple, Charles

2017-03-21

Maximum parsimony is one of the most frequently-discussed tree reconstruction methods in phylogenetic estimation. However, in recent years it has become more and more apparent that phylogenetic trees are often not sufficient to describe evolution accurately. For instance, processes like hybridization or lateral gene transfer that are commonplace in many groups of organisms and result in mosaic patterns of relationships cannot be represented by a single phylogenetic tree. This is why phylogenetic networks, which can display such events, are becoming of more and more interest in phylogenetic research. It is therefore necessary to extend concepts like maximum parsimony from phylogenetic trees to networks. Several suggestions for possible extensions can be found in recent literature, for instance the softwired and the hardwired parsimony concepts. In this paper, we analyze the so-called big parsimony problem under these two concepts, i.e. we investigate maximum parsimonious networks and analyze their properties. In particular, we show that finding a softwired maximum parsimony network is possible in polynomial time. We also show that the set of maximum parsimony networks for the hardwired definition always contains at least one phylogenetic tree. Lastly, we investigate some parallels of parsimony to different likelihood concepts on phylogenetic networks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of brood and nest survival: Comparative methods in the presence of heterogeneity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manly, Bryan F.J.; Schmutz, Joel A.

2001-01-01

The Mayfield method has been widely used for estimating survival of nests and young animals, especially when data are collected at irregular observation intervals. However, this method assumes survival is constant throughout the study period, which often ignores biologically relevant variation and may lead to biased survival estimates. We examined the bias and accuracy of 1 modification to the Mayfield method that allows for temporal variation in survival, and we developed and similarly tested 2 additional methods. One of these 2 new methods is simply an iterative extension of Klett and Johnson's method, which we refer to as the Iterative Mayfield method and bears similarity to Kaplan-Meier methods. The other method uses maximum likelihood techniques for estimation and is best applied to survival of animals in groups or families, rather than as independent individuals. We also examined how robust these estimators are to heterogeneity in the data, which can arise from such sources as dependent survival probabilities among siblings, inherent differences among families, and adoption. Testing of estimator performance with respect to bias, accuracy, and heterogeneity was done using simulations that mimicked a study of survival of emperor goose (Chen canagica) goslings. Assuming constant survival for inappropriately long periods of time or use of Klett and Johnson's methods resulted in large bias or poor accuracy (often >5% bias or root mean square error) compared to our Iterative Mayfield or maximum likelihood methods. Overall, estimator performance was slightly better with our Iterative Mayfield than our maximum likelihood method, but the maximum likelihood method provides a more rigorous framework for testing covariates and explicity models a heterogeneity factor. We demonstrated use of all estimators with data from emperor goose goslings. We advocate that future studies use the new methods outlined here rather than the traditional Mayfield method or its previous modifications.

Missing data methods for dealing with missing items in quality of life questionnaires. A comparison by simulation of personal mean score, full information maximum likelihood, multiple imputation, and hot deck techniques applied to the SF-36 in the French 2003 decennial health survey.

PubMed

Peyre, Hugo; Leplège, Alain; Coste, Joël

2011-03-01

Missing items are common in quality of life (QoL) questionnaires and present a challenge for research in this field. It remains unclear which of the various methods proposed to deal with missing data performs best in this context. We compared personal mean score, full information maximum likelihood, multiple imputation, and hot deck techniques using various realistic simulation scenarios of item missingness in QoL questionnaires constructed within the framework of classical test theory. Samples of 300 and 1,000 subjects were randomly drawn from the 2003 INSEE Decennial Health Survey (of 23,018 subjects representative of the French population and having completed the SF-36) and various patterns of missing data were generated according to three different item non-response rates (3, 6, and 9%) and three types of missing data (Little and Rubin's "missing completely at random," "missing at random," and "missing not at random"). The missing data methods were evaluated in terms of accuracy and precision for the analysis of one descriptive and one association parameter for three different scales of the SF-36. For all item non-response rates and types of missing data, multiple imputation and full information maximum likelihood appeared superior to the personal mean score and especially to hot deck in terms of accuracy and precision; however, the use of personal mean score was associated with insignificant bias (relative bias <2%) in all studied situations. Whereas multiple imputation and full information maximum likelihood are confirmed as reference methods, the personal mean score appears nonetheless appropriate for dealing with items missing from completed SF-36 questionnaires in most situations of routine use. These results can reasonably be extended to other questionnaires constructed according to classical test theory.

Minimization for conditional simulation: Relationship to optimal transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Dean S.

2014-05-01

In this paper, we consider the problem of generating independent samples from a conditional distribution when independent samples from the prior distribution are available. Although there are exact methods for sampling from the posterior (e.g. Markov chain Monte Carlo or acceptance/rejection), these methods tend to be computationally demanding when evaluation of the likelihood function is expensive, as it is for most geoscience applications. As an alternative, in this paper we discuss deterministic mappings of variables distributed according to the prior to variables distributed according to the posterior. Although any deterministic mappings might be equally useful, we will focus our discussion on a class of algorithms that obtain implicit mappings by minimization of a cost function that includes measures of data mismatch and model variable mismatch. Algorithms of this type include quasi-linear estimation, randomized maximum likelihood, perturbed observation ensemble Kalman filter, and ensemble of perturbed analyses (4D-Var). When the prior pdf is Gaussian and the observation operators are linear, we show that these minimization-based simulation methods solve an optimal transport problem with a nonstandard cost function. When the observation operators are nonlinear, however, the mapping of variables from the prior to the posterior obtained from those methods is only approximate. Errors arise from neglect of the Jacobian determinant of the transformation and from the possibility of discontinuous mappings.

On the shape and likelihood of oceanic rogue waves.

PubMed

Benetazzo, Alvise; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Bergamasco, Filippo; Cavaleri, Luigi; Guimarães, Pedro Veras; Schwendeman, Michael; Sclavo, Mauro; Thomson, Jim; Torsello, Andrea

2017-08-15

We consider the observation and analysis of oceanic rogue waves collected within spatio-temporal (ST) records of 3D wave fields. This class of records, allowing a sea surface region to be retrieved, is appropriate for the observation of rogue waves, which come up as a random phenomenon that can occur at any time and location of the sea surface. To verify this aspect, we used three stereo wave imaging systems to gather ST records of the sea surface elevation, which were collected in different sea conditions. The wave with the ST maximum elevation (happening to be larger than the rogue threshold 1.25H s ) was then isolated within each record, along with its temporal profile. The rogue waves show similar profiles, in agreement with the theory of extreme wave groups. We analyze the rogue wave probability of occurrence, also in the context of ST extreme value distributions, and we conclude that rogue waves are more likely than previously reported; the key point is coming across them, in space as well as in time. The dependence of the rogue wave profile and likelihood on the sea state conditions is also investigated. Results may prove useful in predicting extreme wave occurrence probability and strength during oceanic storms.

Tests for detecting overdispersion in models with measurement error in covariates.

PubMed

Yang, Yingsi; Wong, Man Yu

2015-11-30

Measurement error in covariates can affect the accuracy in count data modeling and analysis. In overdispersion identification, the true mean-variance relationship can be obscured under the influence of measurement error in covariates. In this paper, we propose three tests for detecting overdispersion when covariates are measured with error: a modified score test and two score tests based on the proposed approximate likelihood and quasi-likelihood, respectively. The proposed approximate likelihood is derived under the classical measurement error model, and the resulting approximate maximum likelihood estimator is shown to have superior efficiency. Simulation results also show that the score test based on approximate likelihood outperforms the test based on quasi-likelihood and other alternatives in terms of empirical power. By analyzing a real dataset containing the health-related quality-of-life measurements of a particular group of patients, we demonstrate the importance of the proposed methods by showing that the analyses with and without measurement error correction yield significantly different results. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison of image deconvolution algorithms on simulated and laboratory infrared images

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Proctor, D.

1994-11-15

We compare Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Entropy, Accelerated Lucy-Richardson, Weighted Goodness of Fit, and Pixon reconstructions of simple scenes as a function of signal-to-noise ratio for simulated images with randomly generated noise. Reconstruction results of infrared images taken with the TAISIR (Temperature and Imaging System InfraRed) are also discussed.

Testing deep reticulate evolution in Amaryllidaceae Tribe Hippeastreae (Asparagales) with ITS and chloroplast sequence data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The phylogeny of Amaryllidaceae tribe Hippeastreae was inferred using chloroplast (3’ycf1, ndhF, trnL-F) and nuclear (ITS rDNA) sequence data under maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood frameworks. Network analyses were applied to resolve conflicting signals among data sets and putative scenarios...

Phylogenetic analyses of RPB1 and RPB2 support a middle Cretaceous origin for a clade comprising all agriculturally and medically important fusaria

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fusarium (Hypocreales, Nectriaceae) is one of the most economically important and systematically challenging groups of mycotoxigenic phytopathogens and emergent human pathogens. We conducted maximum likelihood (ML), maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian (B) analyses on partial RNA polymerase largest (...

Multiple-hit parameter estimation in monolithic detectors.

PubMed

Hunter, William C J; Barrett, Harrison H; Lewellen, Tom K; Miyaoka, Robert S

2013-02-01

We examine a maximum-a-posteriori method for estimating the primary interaction position of gamma rays with multiple interaction sites (hits) in a monolithic detector. In assessing the performance of a multiple-hit estimator over that of a conventional one-hit estimator, we consider a few different detector and readout configurations of a 50-mm-wide square cerium-doped lutetium oxyorthosilicate block. For this study, we use simulated data from SCOUT, a Monte-Carlo tool for photon tracking and modeling scintillation- camera output. With this tool, we determine estimate bias and variance for a multiple-hit estimator and compare these with similar metrics for a one-hit maximum-likelihood estimator, which assumes full energy deposition in one hit. We also examine the effect of event filtering on these metrics; for this purpose, we use a likelihood threshold to reject signals that are not likely to have been produced under the assumed likelihood model. Depending on detector design, we observe a 1%-12% improvement of intrinsic resolution for a 1-or-2-hit estimator as compared with a 1-hit estimator. We also observe improved differentiation of photopeak events using a 1-or-2-hit estimator as compared with the 1-hit estimator; more than 6% of photopeak events that were rejected by likelihood filtering for the 1-hit estimator were accurately identified as photopeak events and positioned without loss of resolution by a 1-or-2-hit estimator; for PET, this equates to at least a 12% improvement in coincidence-detection efficiency with likelihood filtering applied.

Practical aspects of a maximum likelihood estimation method to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iliff, K. W.; Maine, R. E.

1976-01-01

A maximum likelihood estimation method was applied to flight data and procedures to facilitate the routine analysis of a large amount of flight data were described. Techniques that can be used to obtain stability and control derivatives from aircraft maneuvers that are less than ideal for this purpose are described. The techniques involve detecting and correcting the effects of dependent or nearly dependent variables, structural vibration, data drift, inadequate instrumentation, and difficulties with the data acquisition system and the mathematical model. The use of uncertainty levels and multiple maneuver analysis also proved to be useful in improving the quality of the estimated coefficients. The procedures used for editing the data and for overall analysis are also discussed.

Sparse representation and dictionary learning penalized image reconstruction for positron emission tomography.

PubMed

Chen, Shuhang; Liu, Huafeng; Shi, Pengcheng; Chen, Yunmei

2015-01-21

Accurate and robust reconstruction of the radioactivity concentration is of great importance in positron emission tomography (PET) imaging. Given the Poisson nature of photo-counting measurements, we present a reconstruction framework that integrates sparsity penalty on a dictionary into a maximum likelihood estimator. Patch-sparsity on a dictionary provides the regularization for our effort, and iterative procedures are used to solve the maximum likelihood function formulated on Poisson statistics. Specifically, in our formulation, a dictionary could be trained on CT images, to provide intrinsic anatomical structures for the reconstructed images, or adaptively learned from the noisy measurements of PET. Accuracy of the strategy with very promising application results from Monte-Carlo simulations, and real data are demonstrated.

A maximum likelihood analysis of the CoGeNT public dataset

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelso, Chris, E-mail: ckelso@unf.edu

The CoGeNT detector, located in the Soudan Underground Laboratory in Northern Minnesota, consists of a 475 grams (fiducial mass of 330 grams) target mass of p-type point contact germanium detector that measures the ionization charge created by nuclear recoils. This detector has searched for recoils created by dark matter since December of 2009. We analyze the public dataset from the CoGeNT experiment to search for evidence of dark matter interactions with the detector. We perform an unbinned maximum likelihood fit to the data and compare the significance of different WIMP hypotheses relative to each other and the null hypothesis ofmore » no WIMP interactions. This work presents the current status of the analysis.« less

2-Step Maximum Likelihood Channel Estimation for Multicode DS-CDMA with Frequency-Domain Equalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kojima, Yohei; Takeda, Kazuaki; Adachi, Fumiyuki

Frequency-domain equalization (FDE) based on the minimum mean square error (MMSE) criterion can provide better downlink bit error rate (BER) performance of direct sequence code division multiple access (DS-CDMA) than the conventional rake combining in a frequency-selective fading channel. FDE requires accurate channel estimation. In this paper, we propose a new 2-step maximum likelihood channel estimation (MLCE) for DS-CDMA with FDE in a very slow frequency-selective fading environment. The 1st step uses the conventional pilot-assisted MMSE-CE and the 2nd step carries out the MLCE using decision feedback from the 1st step. The BER performance improvement achieved by 2-step MLCE over pilot assisted MMSE-CE is confirmed by computer simulation.

BOREAS TE-18 Landsat TM Maximum Likelihood Classification Image of the NSA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Forrest G. (Editor); Knapp, David

2000-01-01

The BOREAS TE-18 team focused its efforts on using remotely sensed data to characterize the successional and disturbance dynamics of the boreal forest for use in carbon modeling. The objective of this classification is to provide the BOREAS investigators with a data product that characterizes the land cover of the NSA. A Landsat-5 TM image from 20-Aug-1988 was used to derive this classification. A standard supervised maximum likelihood classification approach was used to produce this classification. The data are provided in a binary image format file. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884), or from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Activity Archive Center (DAAC).

A real-time digital program for estimating aircraft stability and control parameters from flight test data by using the maximum likelihood method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grove, R. D.; Mayhew, S. C.

1973-01-01

A computer program (Langley program C1123) has been developed for estimating aircraft stability and control parameters from flight test data. These parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation procedure implemented on a real-time digital simulation system, which uses the Control Data 6600 computer. This system allows the investigator to interact with the program in order to obtain satisfactory results. Part of this system, the control and display capabilities, is described for this program. This report also describes the computer program by presenting the program variables, subroutines, flow charts, listings, and operational features. Program usage is demonstrated with a test case using pseudo or simulated flight data.

Univariate and bivariate likelihood-based meta-analysis methods performed comparably when marginal sensitivity and specificity were the targets of inference.

PubMed

Dahabreh, Issa J; Trikalinos, Thomas A; Lau, Joseph; Schmid, Christopher H

2017-03-01

To compare statistical methods for meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity of medical tests (e.g., diagnostic or screening tests). We constructed a database of PubMed-indexed meta-analyses of test performance from which 2 × 2 tables for each included study could be extracted. We reanalyzed the data using univariate and bivariate random effects models fit with inverse variance and maximum likelihood methods. Analyses were performed using both normal and binomial likelihoods to describe within-study variability. The bivariate model using the binomial likelihood was also fit using a fully Bayesian approach. We use two worked examples-thoracic computerized tomography to detect aortic injury and rapid prescreening of Papanicolaou smears to detect cytological abnormalities-to highlight that different meta-analysis approaches can produce different results. We also present results from reanalysis of 308 meta-analyses of sensitivity and specificity. Models using the normal approximation produced sensitivity and specificity estimates closer to 50% and smaller standard errors compared to models using the binomial likelihood; absolute differences of 5% or greater were observed in 12% and 5% of meta-analyses for sensitivity and specificity, respectively. Results from univariate and bivariate random effects models were similar, regardless of estimation method. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods produced almost identical summary estimates under the bivariate model; however, Bayesian analyses indicated greater uncertainty around those estimates. Bivariate models produced imprecise estimates of the between-study correlation of sensitivity and specificity. Differences between methods were larger with increasing proportion of studies that were small or required a continuity correction. The binomial likelihood should be used to model within-study variability. Univariate and bivariate models give similar estimates of the marginal distributions for sensitivity and specificity. Bayesian methods fully quantify uncertainty and their ability to incorporate external evidence may be useful for imprecisely estimated parameters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Maximum likelihood estimation in calibrating a stereo camera setup.

PubMed

Muijtjens, A M; Roos, J M; Arts, T; Hasman, A

1999-02-01

Motion and deformation of the cardiac wall may be measured by following the positions of implanted radiopaque markers in three dimensions, using two x-ray cameras simultaneously. Regularly, calibration of the position measurement system is obtained by registration of the images of a calibration object, containing 10-20 radiopaque markers at known positions. Unfortunately, an accidental change of the position of a camera after calibration requires complete recalibration. Alternatively, redundant information in the measured image positions of stereo pairs can be used for calibration. Thus, a separate calibration procedure can be avoided. In the current study a model is developed that describes the geometry of the camera setup by five dimensionless parameters. Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimates of these parameters were obtained in an error analysis. It is shown that the ML estimates can be found by application of a nonlinear least squares procedure. Compared to the standard unweighted least squares procedure, the ML method resulted in more accurate estimates without noticeable bias. The accuracy of the ML method was investigated in relation to the object aperture. The reconstruction problem appeared well conditioned as long as the object aperture is larger than 0.1 rad. The angle between the two viewing directions appeared to be the parameter that was most likely to cause major inaccuracies in the reconstruction of the 3-D positions of the markers. Hence, attempts to improve the robustness of the method should primarily focus on reduction of the error in this parameter.

APPROXIMATION AND ESTIMATION OF s-CONCAVE DENSITIES VIA RÉNYI DIVERGENCES.

PubMed

Han, Qiyang; Wellner, Jon A

2016-01-01

In this paper, we study the approximation and estimation of s -concave densities via Rényi divergence. We first show that the approximation of a probability measure Q by an s -concave density exists and is unique via the procedure of minimizing a divergence functional proposed by [ Ann. Statist. 38 (2010) 2998-3027] if and only if Q admits full-dimensional support and a first moment. We also show continuity of the divergence functional in Q : if Q n → Q in the Wasserstein metric, then the projected densities converge in weighted L 1 metrics and uniformly on closed subsets of the continuity set of the limit. Moreover, directional derivatives of the projected densities also enjoy local uniform convergence. This contains both on-the-model and off-the-model situations, and entails strong consistency of the divergence estimator of an s -concave density under mild conditions. One interesting and important feature for the Rényi divergence estimator of an s -concave density is that the estimator is intrinsically related with the estimation of log-concave densities via maximum likelihood methods. In fact, we show that for d = 1 at least, the Rényi divergence estimators for s -concave densities converge to the maximum likelihood estimator of a log-concave density as s ↗ 0. The Rényi divergence estimator shares similar characterizations as the MLE for log-concave distributions, which allows us to develop pointwise asymptotic distribution theory assuming that the underlying density is s -concave.

APPROXIMATION AND ESTIMATION OF s-CONCAVE DENSITIES VIA RÉNYI DIVERGENCES

PubMed Central

Han, Qiyang; Wellner, Jon A.

2017-01-01

In this paper, we study the approximation and estimation of s-concave densities via Rényi divergence. We first show that the approximation of a probability measure Q by an s-concave density exists and is unique via the procedure of minimizing a divergence functional proposed by [Ann. Statist. 38 (2010) 2998–3027] if and only if Q admits full-dimensional support and a first moment. We also show continuity of the divergence functional in Q: if Qn → Q in the Wasserstein metric, then the projected densities converge in weighted L1 metrics and uniformly on closed subsets of the continuity set of the limit. Moreover, directional derivatives of the projected densities also enjoy local uniform convergence. This contains both on-the-model and off-the-model situations, and entails strong consistency of the divergence estimator of an s-concave density under mild conditions. One interesting and important feature for the Rényi divergence estimator of an s-concave density is that the estimator is intrinsically related with the estimation of log-concave densities via maximum likelihood methods. In fact, we show that for d = 1 at least, the Rényi divergence estimators for s-concave densities converge to the maximum likelihood estimator of a log-concave density as s ↗ 0. The Rényi divergence estimator shares similar characterizations as the MLE for log-concave distributions, which allows us to develop pointwise asymptotic distribution theory assuming that the underlying density is s-concave. PMID:28966410

Maximum likelihood inference implies a high, not a low, ancestral haploid chromosome number in Araceae, with a critique of the bias introduced by ‘x’

PubMed Central

Cusimano, Natalie; Sousa, Aretuza; Renner, Susanne S.

2012-01-01

Background and Aims For 84 years, botanists have relied on calculating the highest common factor for series of haploid chromosome numbers to arrive at a so-called basic number, x. This was done without consistent (reproducible) reference to species relationships and frequencies of different numbers in a clade. Likelihood models that treat polyploidy, chromosome fusion and fission as events with particular probabilities now allow reconstruction of ancestral chromosome numbers in an explicit framework. We have used a modelling approach to reconstruct chromosome number change in the large monocot family Araceae and to test earlier hypotheses about basic numbers in the family. Methods Using a maximum likelihood approach and chromosome counts for 26 % of the 3300 species of Araceae and representative numbers for each of the other 13 families of Alismatales, polyploidization events and single chromosome changes were inferred on a genus-level phylogenetic tree for 113 of the 117 genera of Araceae. Key Results The previously inferred basic numbers x = 14 and x = 7 are rejected. Instead, maximum likelihood optimization revealed an ancestral haploid chromosome number of n = 16, Bayesian inference of n = 18. Chromosome fusion (loss) is the predominant inferred event, whereas polyploidization events occurred less frequently and mainly towards the tips of the tree. Conclusions The bias towards low basic numbers (x) introduced by the algebraic approach to inferring chromosome number changes, prevalent among botanists, may have contributed to an unrealistic picture of ancestral chromosome numbers in many plant clades. The availability of robust quantitative methods for reconstructing ancestral chromosome numbers on molecular phylogenetic trees (with or without branch length information), with confidence statistics, makes the calculation of x an obsolete approach, at least when applied to large clades. PMID:22210850

An Investigation of the Standard Errors of Expected A Posteriori Ability Estimates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Ayala, R. J.; And Others

Expected a posteriori has a number of advantages over maximum likelihood estimation or maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation methods. These include ability estimates (thetas) for all response patterns, less regression towards the mean than MAP ability estimates, and a lower average squared error. R. D. Bock and R. J. Mislevy (1982) state that the…

Evaluation of a mark-recapture method for estimating mortality and migration rates of stratified populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.; Rago, P.J.

1991-01-01

We simulated mark–recapture experiments to evaluate a method for estimating fishing mortality and migration rates of populations stratified at release and recovery. When fish released in two or more strata were recovered from different recapture strata in nearly the same proportions, conditional recapture probabilities were estimated outside the [0, 1] interval. The maximum likelihood estimates tended to be biased and imprecise when the patterns of recaptures produced extremely "flat" likelihood surfaces. Absence of bias was not guaranteed, however, in experiments where recapture rates could be estimated within the [0, 1] interval. Inadequate numbers of tag releases and recoveries also produced biased estimates, although the bias was easily detected by the high sampling variability of the estimates. A stratified tag–recapture experiment with sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) was used to demonstrate procedures for analyzing data that produce biased estimates of recapture probabilities. An estimator was derived to examine the sensitivity of recapture rate estimates to assumed differences in natural and tagging mortality, tag loss, and incomplete reporting of tag recoveries.

Modeling, estimation and identification methods for static shape determination of flexible structures. [for large space structure design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G.; Scheid, R. E., Jr.

1986-01-01

This paper outlines methods for modeling, identification and estimation for static determination of flexible structures. The shape estimation schemes are based on structural models specified by (possibly interconnected) elliptic partial differential equations. The identification techniques provide approximate knowledge of parameters in elliptic systems. The techniques are based on the method of maximum-likelihood that finds parameter values such that the likelihood functional associated with the system model is maximized. The estimation methods are obtained by means of a function-space approach that seeks to obtain the conditional mean of the state given the data and a white noise characterization of model errors. The solutions are obtained in a batch-processing mode in which all the data is processed simultaneously. After methods for computing the optimal estimates are developed, an analysis of the second-order statistics of the estimates and of the related estimation error is conducted. In addition to outlining the above theoretical results, the paper presents typical flexible structure simulations illustrating performance of the shape determination methods.

Evolutionary genetic analyses of MEF2C gene: implications for learning and memory in Homo sapiens.

PubMed

Kalmady, Sunil V; Venkatasubramanian, Ganesan; Arasappa, Rashmi; Rao, Naren P

2013-02-01

MEF2C facilitates context-dependent fear conditioning (CFC) which is a salient aspect of hippocampus-dependent learning and memory. CFC might have played a crucial role in human evolution because of its advantageous influence on survival of species. In this study, we analyzed 23 orthologous mammalian gene sequences of MEF2C gene to examine the evidence for positive selection on this gene in Homo sapiens using Phylogenetic Analysis by Maximum Likelihood (PAML) and HyPhy software. Both PAML Bayes Empirical Bayes (BEB) and HyPhy Fixed Effects Likelihood (FEL) analyses supported significant positive selection on 4 codon sites in H. sapiens. Also, haplotter analysis revealed significant ongoing positive selection on this gene in Central European population. The study findings suggest that adaptive selective pressure on this gene might have influenced human evolution. Further research on this gene might unravel the potential role of this gene in learning and memory as well as its pathogenetic effect in certain hippocampal disorders with evolutionary basis like schizophrenia. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maximum likelihood decoding of Reed Solomon Codes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sudan, M.

We present a randomized algorithm which takes as input n distinct points ((x{sub i}, y{sub i})){sup n}{sub i=1} from F x F (where F is a field) and integer parameters t and d and returns a list of all univariate polynomials f over F in the variable x of degree at most d which agree with the given set of points in at least t places (i.e., y{sub i} = f (x{sub i}) for at least t values of i), provided t = {Omega}({radical}nd). The running time is bounded by a polynomial in n. This immediately provides a maximum likelihoodmore » decoding algorithm for Reed Solomon Codes, which works in a setting with a larger number of errors than any previously known algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first efficient (i.e., polynomial time bounded) algorithm which provides some maximum likelihood decoding for any efficient (i.e., constant or even polynomial rate) code.« less

Mapping grass communities based on multi-temporal Landsat TM imagery and environmental variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Yuandi; Liu, Yanfang; Liu, Yaolin; de Leeuw, Jan

2007-06-01

Information on the spatial distribution of grass communities in wetland is increasingly recognized as important for effective wetland management and biological conservation. Remote sensing techniques has been proved to be an effective alternative to intensive and costly ground surveys for mapping grass community. However, the mapping accuracy of grass communities in wetland is still not preferable. The aim of this paper is to develop an effective method to map grass communities in Poyang Lake Natural Reserve. Through statistic analysis, elevation is selected as an environmental variable for its high relationship with the distribution of grass communities; NDVI stacked from images of different months was used to generate Carex community map; the image in October was used to discriminate Miscanthus and Cynodon communities. Classifications were firstly performed with maximum likelihood classifier using single date satellite image with and without elevation; then layered classifications were performed using multi-temporal satellite imagery and elevation with maximum likelihood classifier, decision tree and artificial neural network separately. The results show that environmental variables can improve the mapping accuracy; and the classification with multitemporal imagery and elevation is significantly better than that with single date image and elevation (p=0.001). Besides, maximum likelihood (a=92.71%, k=0.90) and artificial neural network (a=94.79%, k=0.93) perform significantly better than decision tree (a=86.46%, k=0.83).

Quantitative PET Imaging in Drug Development: Estimation of Target Occupancy.

PubMed

Naganawa, Mika; Gallezot, Jean-Dominique; Rossano, Samantha; Carson, Richard E

2017-12-11

Positron emission tomography, an imaging tool using radiolabeled tracers in humans and preclinical species, has been widely used in recent years in drug development, particularly in the central nervous system. One important goal of PET in drug development is assessing the occupancy of various molecular targets (e.g., receptors, transporters, enzymes) by exogenous drugs. The current linear mathematical approaches used to determine occupancy using PET imaging experiments are presented. These algorithms use results from multiple regions with different target content in two scans, a baseline (pre-drug) scan and a post-drug scan. New mathematical estimation approaches to determine target occupancy, using maximum likelihood, are presented. A major challenge in these methods is the proper definition of the covariance matrix of the regional binding measures, accounting for different variance of the individual regional measures and their nonzero covariance, factors that have been ignored by conventional methods. The novel methods are compared to standard methods using simulation and real human occupancy data. The simulation data showed the expected reduction in variance and bias using the proper maximum likelihood methods, when the assumptions of the estimation method matched those in simulation. Between-method differences for data from human occupancy studies were less obvious, in part due to small dataset sizes. These maximum likelihood methods form the basis for development of improved PET covariance models, in order to minimize bias and variance in PET occupancy studies.

Signal detection theory and vestibular perception: III. Estimating unbiased fit parameters for psychometric functions.

PubMed

Chaudhuri, Shomesh E; Merfeld, Daniel M

2013-03-01

Psychophysics generally relies on estimating a subject's ability to perform a specific task as a function of an observed stimulus. For threshold studies, the fitted functions are called psychometric functions. While fitting psychometric functions to data acquired using adaptive sampling procedures (e.g., "staircase" procedures), investigators have encountered a bias in the spread ("slope" or "threshold") parameter that has been attributed to the serial dependency of the adaptive data. Using simulations, we confirm this bias for cumulative Gaussian parametric maximum likelihood fits on data collected via adaptive sampling procedures, and then present a bias-reduced maximum likelihood fit that substantially reduces the bias without reducing the precision of the spread parameter estimate and without reducing the accuracy or precision of the other fit parameters. As a separate topic, we explain how to implement this bias reduction technique using generalized linear model fits as well as other numeric maximum likelihood techniques such as the Nelder-Mead simplex. We then provide a comparison of the iterative bootstrap and observed information matrix techniques for estimating parameter fit variance from adaptive sampling procedure data sets. The iterative bootstrap technique is shown to be slightly more accurate; however, the observed information technique executes in a small fraction (0.005 %) of the time required by the iterative bootstrap technique, which is an advantage when a real-time estimate of parameter fit variance is required.

Inverse problems-based maximum likelihood estimation of ground reflectivity for selected regions of interest from stripmap SAR data [Regularized maximum likelihood estimation of ground reflectivity from stripmap SAR data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

West, R. Derek; Gunther, Jacob H.; Moon, Todd K.

In this study, we derive a comprehensive forward model for the data collected by stripmap synthetic aperture radar (SAR) that is linear in the ground reflectivity parameters. It is also shown that if the noise model is additive, then the forward model fits into the linear statistical model framework, and the ground reflectivity parameters can be estimated by statistical methods. We derive the maximum likelihood (ML) estimates for the ground reflectivity parameters in the case of additive white Gaussian noise. Furthermore, we show that obtaining the ML estimates of the ground reflectivity requires two steps. The first step amounts tomore » a cross-correlation of the data with a model of the data acquisition parameters, and it is shown that this step has essentially the same processing as the so-called convolution back-projection algorithm. The second step is a complete system inversion that is capable of mitigating the sidelobes of the spatially variant impulse responses remaining after the correlation processing. We also state the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the ML ground reflectivity estimates.We show that the CRLB is linked to the SAR system parameters, the flight path of the SAR sensor, and the image reconstruction grid.We demonstrate the ML image formation and the CRLB bound for synthetically generated data.« less

Inverse problems-based maximum likelihood estimation of ground reflectivity for selected regions of interest from stripmap SAR data [Regularized maximum likelihood estimation of ground reflectivity from stripmap SAR data

DOE PAGES

West, R. Derek; Gunther, Jacob H.; Moon, Todd K.

2016-12-01

In this study, we derive a comprehensive forward model for the data collected by stripmap synthetic aperture radar (SAR) that is linear in the ground reflectivity parameters. It is also shown that if the noise model is additive, then the forward model fits into the linear statistical model framework, and the ground reflectivity parameters can be estimated by statistical methods. We derive the maximum likelihood (ML) estimates for the ground reflectivity parameters in the case of additive white Gaussian noise. Furthermore, we show that obtaining the ML estimates of the ground reflectivity requires two steps. The first step amounts tomore » a cross-correlation of the data with a model of the data acquisition parameters, and it is shown that this step has essentially the same processing as the so-called convolution back-projection algorithm. The second step is a complete system inversion that is capable of mitigating the sidelobes of the spatially variant impulse responses remaining after the correlation processing. We also state the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the ML ground reflectivity estimates.We show that the CRLB is linked to the SAR system parameters, the flight path of the SAR sensor, and the image reconstruction grid.We demonstrate the ML image formation and the CRLB bound for synthetically generated data.« less

Load estimator (LOADEST): a FORTRAN program for estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.; Crawford, Charles G.; Cohn, Timothy A.

2004-01-01

LOAD ESTimator (LOADEST) is a FORTRAN program for estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers. Given a time series of streamflow, additional data variables, and constituent concentration, LOADEST assists the user in developing a regression model for the estimation of constituent load (calibration). Explanatory variables within the regression model include various functions of streamflow, decimal time, and additional user-specified data variables. The formulated regression model then is used to estimate loads over a user-specified time interval (estimation). Mean load estimates, standard errors, and 95 percent confidence intervals are developed on a monthly and(or) seasonal basis. The calibration and estimation procedures within LOADEST are based on three statistical estimation methods. The first two methods, Adjusted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (AMLE) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), are appropriate when the calibration model errors (residuals) are normally distributed. Of the two, AMLE is the method of choice when the calibration data set (time series of streamflow, additional data variables, and concentration) contains censored data. The third method, Least Absolute Deviation (LAD), is an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation when the residuals are not normally distributed. LOADEST output includes diagnostic tests and warnings to assist the user in determining the appropriate estimation method and in interpreting the estimated loads. This report describes the development and application of LOADEST. Sections of the report describe estimation theory, input/output specifications, sample applications, and installation instructions.

MultiPhyl: a high-throughput phylogenomics webserver using distributed computing

PubMed Central

Keane, Thomas M.; Naughton, Thomas J.; McInerney, James O.

2007-01-01

With the number of fully sequenced genomes increasing steadily, there is greater interest in performing large-scale phylogenomic analyses from large numbers of individual gene families. Maximum likelihood (ML) has been shown repeatedly to be one of the most accurate methods for phylogenetic construction. Recently, there have been a number of algorithmic improvements in maximum-likelihood-based tree search methods. However, it can still take a long time to analyse the evolutionary history of many gene families using a single computer. Distributed computing refers to a method of combining the computing power of multiple computers in order to perform some larger overall calculation. In this article, we present the first high-throughput implementation of a distributed phylogenetics platform, MultiPhyl, capable of using the idle computational resources of many heterogeneous non-dedicated machines to form a phylogenetics supercomputer. MultiPhyl allows a user to upload hundreds or thousands of amino acid or nucleotide alignments simultaneously and perform computationally intensive tasks such as model selection, tree searching and bootstrapping of each of the alignments using many desktop machines. The program implements a set of 88 amino acid models and 56 nucleotide maximum likelihood models and a variety of statistical methods for choosing between alternative models. A MultiPhyl webserver is available for public use at: http://www.cs.nuim.ie/distributed/multiphyl.php. PMID:17553837

AUC-Maximized Deep Convolutional Neural Fields for Protein Sequence Labeling.

PubMed

Wang, Sheng; Sun, Siqi; Xu, Jinbo

2016-09-01

Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (DCNN) has shown excellent performance in a variety of machine learning tasks. This paper presents Deep Convolutional Neural Fields (DeepCNF), an integration of DCNN with Conditional Random Field (CRF), for sequence labeling with an imbalanced label distribution. The widely-used training methods, such as maximum-likelihood and maximum labelwise accuracy, do not work well on imbalanced data. To handle this, we present a new training algorithm called maximum-AUC for DeepCNF. That is, we train DeepCNF by directly maximizing the empirical Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC), which is an unbiased measurement for imbalanced data. To fulfill this, we formulate AUC in a pairwise ranking framework, approximate it by a polynomial function and then apply a gradient-based procedure to optimize it. Our experimental results confirm that maximum-AUC greatly outperforms the other two training methods on 8-state secondary structure prediction and disorder prediction since their label distributions are highly imbalanced and also has similar performance as the other two training methods on solvent accessibility prediction, which has three equally-distributed labels. Furthermore, our experimental results show that our AUC-trained DeepCNF models greatly outperform existing popular predictors of these three tasks. The data and software related to this paper are available at https://github.com/realbigws/DeepCNF_AUC.

AUC-Maximized Deep Convolutional Neural Fields for Protein Sequence Labeling

PubMed Central

Wang, Sheng; Sun, Siqi

2017-01-01

Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (DCNN) has shown excellent performance in a variety of machine learning tasks. This paper presents Deep Convolutional Neural Fields (DeepCNF), an integration of DCNN with Conditional Random Field (CRF), for sequence labeling with an imbalanced label distribution. The widely-used training methods, such as maximum-likelihood and maximum labelwise accuracy, do not work well on imbalanced data. To handle this, we present a new training algorithm called maximum-AUC for DeepCNF. That is, we train DeepCNF by directly maximizing the empirical Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC), which is an unbiased measurement for imbalanced data. To fulfill this, we formulate AUC in a pairwise ranking framework, approximate it by a polynomial function and then apply a gradient-based procedure to optimize it. Our experimental results confirm that maximum-AUC greatly outperforms the other two training methods on 8-state secondary structure prediction and disorder prediction since their label distributions are highly imbalanced and also has similar performance as the other two training methods on solvent accessibility prediction, which has three equally-distributed labels. Furthermore, our experimental results show that our AUC-trained DeepCNF models greatly outperform existing popular predictors of these three tasks. The data and software related to this paper are available at https://github.com/realbigws/DeepCNF_AUC. PMID:28884168

Multiple-Hit Parameter Estimation in Monolithic Detectors

PubMed Central

Barrett, Harrison H.; Lewellen, Tom K.; Miyaoka, Robert S.

2014-01-01

We examine a maximum-a-posteriori method for estimating the primary interaction position of gamma rays with multiple interaction sites (hits) in a monolithic detector. In assessing the performance of a multiple-hit estimator over that of a conventional one-hit estimator, we consider a few different detector and readout configurations of a 50-mm-wide square cerium-doped lutetium oxyorthosilicate block. For this study, we use simulated data from SCOUT, a Monte-Carlo tool for photon tracking and modeling scintillation- camera output. With this tool, we determine estimate bias and variance for a multiple-hit estimator and compare these with similar metrics for a one-hit maximum-likelihood estimator, which assumes full energy deposition in one hit. We also examine the effect of event filtering on these metrics; for this purpose, we use a likelihood threshold to reject signals that are not likely to have been produced under the assumed likelihood model. Depending on detector design, we observe a 1%–12% improvement of intrinsic resolution for a 1-or-2-hit estimator as compared with a 1-hit estimator. We also observe improved differentiation of photopeak events using a 1-or-2-hit estimator as compared with the 1-hit estimator; more than 6% of photopeak events that were rejected by likelihood filtering for the 1-hit estimator were accurately identified as photopeak events and positioned without loss of resolution by a 1-or-2-hit estimator; for PET, this equates to at least a 12% improvement in coincidence-detection efficiency with likelihood filtering applied. PMID:23193231

Real-time antenna fault diagnosis experiments at DSS 13

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellstrom, J.; Pierson, C.; Smyth, P.

1992-01-01

Experimental results obtained when a previously described fault diagnosis system was run online in real time at the 34-m beam waveguide antenna at Deep Space Station (DSS) 13 are described. Experimental conditions and the quality of results are described. A neural network model and a maximum-likelihood Gaussian classifier are compared with and without a Markov component to model temporal context. At the rate of a state update every 6.4 seconds, over a period of roughly 1 hour, the neural-Markov system had zero errors (incorrect state estimates) while monitoring both faulty and normal operations. The overall results indicate that the neural-Markov combination is the most accurate model and has significant practical potential.

Proportion estimation using prior cluster purities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terrell, G. R. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The prior distribution of CLASSY component purities is studied, and this information incorporated into maximum likelihood crop proportion estimators. The method is tested on Transition Year spring small grain segments.

Glutamate receptor-channel gating. Maximum likelihood analysis of gigaohm seal recordings from locust muscle.

PubMed Central

Bates, S E; Sansom, M S; Ball, F G; Ramsey, R L; Usherwood, P N

1990-01-01

Gigaohm recordings have been made from glutamate receptor channels in excised, outside-out patches of collagenase-treated locust muscle membrane. The channels in the excised patches exhibit the kinetic state switching first seen in megaohm recordings from intact muscle fibers. Analysis of channel dwell time distributions reveals that the gating mechanism contains at least four open states and at least four closed states. Dwell time autocorrelation function analysis shows that there are at least three gateways linking the open states of the channel with the closed states. A maximum likelihood procedure has been used to fit six different gating models to the single channel data. Of these models, a cooperative model yields the best fit, and accurately predicts most features of the observed channel gating kinetics. PMID:1696510

Approximated mutual information training for speech recognition using myoelectric signals.

PubMed

Guo, Hua J; Chan, A D C

2006-01-01

A new training algorithm called the approximated maximum mutual information (AMMI) is proposed to improve the accuracy of myoelectric speech recognition using hidden Markov models (HMMs). Previous studies have demonstrated that automatic speech recognition can be performed using myoelectric signals from articulatory muscles of the face. Classification of facial myoelectric signals can be performed using HMMs that are trained using the maximum likelihood (ML) algorithm; however, this algorithm maximizes the likelihood of the observations in the training sequence, which is not directly associated with optimal classification accuracy. The AMMI training algorithm attempts to maximize the mutual information, thereby training the HMMs to optimize their parameters for discrimination. Our results show that AMMI training consistently reduces the error rates compared to these by the ML training, increasing the accuracy by approximately 3% on average.

Fast and accurate estimation of the covariance between pairwise maximum likelihood distances.

PubMed

Gil, Manuel

2014-01-01

Pairwise evolutionary distances are a model-based summary statistic for a set of molecular sequences. They represent the leaf-to-leaf path lengths of the underlying phylogenetic tree. Estimates of pairwise distances with overlapping paths covary because of shared mutation events. It is desirable to take these covariance structure into account to increase precision in any process that compares or combines distances. This paper introduces a fast estimator for the covariance of two pairwise maximum likelihood distances, estimated under general Markov models. The estimator is based on a conjecture (going back to Nei & Jin, 1989) which links the covariance to path lengths. It is proven here under a simple symmetric substitution model. A simulation shows that the estimator outperforms previously published ones in terms of the mean squared error.

Fast and accurate estimation of the covariance between pairwise maximum likelihood distances

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Pairwise evolutionary distances are a model-based summary statistic for a set of molecular sequences. They represent the leaf-to-leaf path lengths of the underlying phylogenetic tree. Estimates of pairwise distances with overlapping paths covary because of shared mutation events. It is desirable to take these covariance structure into account to increase precision in any process that compares or combines distances. This paper introduces a fast estimator for the covariance of two pairwise maximum likelihood distances, estimated under general Markov models. The estimator is based on a conjecture (going back to Nei & Jin, 1989) which links the covariance to path lengths. It is proven here under a simple symmetric substitution model. A simulation shows that the estimator outperforms previously published ones in terms of the mean squared error. PMID:25279263

Systems identification using a modified Newton-Raphson method: A FORTRAN program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, L. W., Jr.; Iliff, K. W.

1972-01-01

A FORTRAN program is offered which computes a maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters of any linear, constant coefficient, state space model. For the case considered, the maximum likelihood estimate can be identical to that which minimizes simultaneously the weighted mean square difference between the computed and measured response of a system and the weighted square of the difference between the estimated and a priori parameter values. A modified Newton-Raphson or quasilinearization method is used to perform the minimization which typically requires several iterations. A starting technique is used which insures convergence for any initial values of the unknown parameters. The program and its operation are described in sufficient detail to enable the user to apply the program to his particular problem with a minimum of difficulty.

A matrix-based method of moments for fitting the multivariate random effects model for meta-analysis and meta-regression

PubMed Central

Jackson, Dan; White, Ian R; Riley, Richard D

2013-01-01

Multivariate meta-analysis is becoming more commonly used. Methods for fitting the multivariate random effects model include maximum likelihood, restricted maximum likelihood, Bayesian estimation and multivariate generalisations of the standard univariate method of moments. Here, we provide a new multivariate method of moments for estimating the between-study covariance matrix with the properties that (1) it allows for either complete or incomplete outcomes and (2) it allows for covariates through meta-regression. Further, for complete data, it is invariant to linear transformations. Our method reduces to the usual univariate method of moments, proposed by DerSimonian and Laird, in a single dimension. We illustrate our method and compare it with some of the alternatives using a simulation study and a real example. PMID:23401213

Development of advanced techniques for rotorcraft state estimation and parameter identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, W. E., Jr.; Bohn, J. G.; Vincent, J. H.

1980-01-01

An integrated methodology for rotorcraft system identification consists of rotorcraft mathematical modeling, three distinct data processing steps, and a technique for designing inputs to improve the identifiability of the data. These elements are as follows: (1) a Kalman filter smoother algorithm which estimates states and sensor errors from error corrupted data. Gust time histories and statistics may also be estimated; (2) a model structure estimation algorithm for isolating a model which adequately explains the data; (3) a maximum likelihood algorithm for estimating the parameters and estimates for the variance of these estimates; and (4) an input design algorithm, based on a maximum likelihood approach, which provides inputs to improve the accuracy of parameter estimates. Each step is discussed with examples to both flight and simulated data cases.

Estimation of longitudinal stability and control derivatives for an icing research aircraft from flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Batterson, James G.; Omara, Thomas M.

1989-01-01

The results of applying a modified stepwise regression algorithm and a maximum likelihood algorithm to flight data from a twin-engine commuter-class icing research aircraft are presented. The results are in the form of body-axis stability and control derivatives related to the short-period, longitudinal motion of the aircraft. Data were analyzed for the baseline (uniced) and for the airplane with an artificial glaze ice shape attached to the leading edge of the horizontal tail. The results are discussed as to the accuracy of the derivative estimates and the difference between the derivative values found for the baseline and the iced airplane. Additional comparisons were made between the maximum likelihood results and the modified stepwise regression results with causes for any discrepancies postulated.

Matched samples logistic regression in case-control studies with missing values: when to break the matches.

PubMed

Hansson, Lisbeth; Khamis, Harry J

2008-12-01

Simulated data sets are used to evaluate conditional and unconditional maximum likelihood estimation in an individual case-control design with continuous covariates when there are different rates of excluded cases and different levels of other design parameters. The effectiveness of the estimation procedures is measured by method bias, variance of the estimators, root mean square error (RMSE) for logistic regression and the percentage of explained variation. Conditional estimation leads to higher RMSE than unconditional estimation in the presence of missing observations, especially for 1:1 matching. The RMSE is higher for the smaller stratum size, especially for the 1:1 matching. The percentage of explained variation appears to be insensitive to missing data, but is generally higher for the conditional estimation than for the unconditional estimation. It is particularly good for the 1:2 matching design. For minimizing RMSE, a high matching ratio is recommended; in this case, conditional and unconditional logistic regression models yield comparable levels of effectiveness. For maximizing the percentage of explained variation, the 1:2 matching design with the conditional logistic regression model is recommended.

Iterative Procedures for Exact Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the First-Order Gaussian Moving Average Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-11-01

1 = Q- 1 - 1 QlaaQ- 1.1 + a’Q-1a This is a simple case of a general formula called Woodbury’s formula by some authors; see, for example, Phadke and...1 2. The First-Order Moving Average Model ..... .................. 3. Some Approaches to the Iterative...the approximate likelihood function in some time series models. Useful suggestions have been the Cholesky decomposition of the covariance matrix and

Speech processing using conditional observable maximum likelihood continuity mapping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogden, John; Nix, David

A computer implemented method enables the recognition of speech and speech characteristics. Parameters are initialized of first probability density functions that map between the symbols in the vocabulary of one or more sequences of speech codes that represent speech sounds and a continuity map. Parameters are also initialized of second probability density functions that map between the elements in the vocabulary of one or more desired sequences of speech transcription symbols and the continuity map. The parameters of the probability density functions are then trained to maximize the probabilities of the desired sequences of speech-transcription symbols. A new sequence ofmore » speech codes is then input to the continuity map having the trained first and second probability function parameters. A smooth path is identified on the continuity map that has the maximum probability for the new sequence of speech codes. The probability of each speech transcription symbol for each input speech code can then be output.« less

Land Suitability Modeling using a Geographic Socio-Environmental Niche-Based Approach: A Case Study from Northeastern Thailand

PubMed Central

Heumann, Benjamin W.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Verdery, Ashton M.; McDaniel, Phillip M.; Rindfuss, Ronald R.

2012-01-01

Understanding the pattern-process relations of land use/land cover change is an important area of research that provides key insights into human-environment interactions. The suitability or likelihood of occurrence of land use such as agricultural crop types across a human-managed landscape is a central consideration. Recent advances in niche-based, geographic species distribution modeling (SDM) offer a novel approach to understanding land suitability and land use decisions. SDM links species presence-location data with geospatial information and uses machine learning algorithms to develop non-linear and discontinuous species-environment relationships. Here, we apply the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model for land suitability modeling by adapting niche theory to a human-managed landscape. In this article, we use data from an agricultural district in Northeastern Thailand as a case study for examining the relationships between the natural, built, and social environments and the likelihood of crop choice for the commonly grown crops that occur in the Nang Rong District – cassava, heavy rice, and jasmine rice, as well as an emerging crop, fruit trees. Our results indicate that while the natural environment (e.g., elevation and soils) is often the dominant factor in crop likelihood, the likelihood is also influenced by household characteristics, such as household assets and conditions of the neighborhood or built environment. Furthermore, the shape of the land use-environment curves illustrates the non-continuous and non-linear nature of these relationships. This approach demonstrates a novel method of understanding non-linear relationships between land and people. The article concludes with a proposed method for integrating the niche-based rules of land use allocation into a dynamic land use model that can address both allocation and quantity of agricultural crops. PMID:24187378

An EM-based semi-parametric mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data.

PubMed

Ng, S K; McLachlan, G J

2003-04-15

We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Applications of non-standard maximum likelihood techniques in energy and resource economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moeltner, Klaus

Two important types of non-standard maximum likelihood techniques, Simulated Maximum Likelihood (SML) and Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PML), have only recently found consideration in the applied economic literature. The objective of this thesis is to demonstrate how these methods can be successfully employed in the analysis of energy and resource models. Chapter I focuses on SML. It constitutes the first application of this technique in the field of energy economics. The framework is as follows: Surveys on the cost of power outages to commercial and industrial customers usually capture multiple observations on the dependent variable for a given firm. The resulting pooled data set is censored and exhibits cross-sectional heterogeneity. We propose a model that addresses these issues by allowing regression coefficients to vary randomly across respondents and by using the Geweke-Hajivassiliou-Keane simulator and Halton sequences to estimate high-order cumulative distribution terms. This adjustment requires the use of SML in the estimation process. Our framework allows for a more comprehensive analysis of outage costs than existing models, which rely on the assumptions of parameter constancy and cross-sectional homogeneity. Our results strongly reject both of these restrictions. The central topic of the second Chapter is the use of PML, a robust estimation technique, in count data analysis of visitor demand for a system of recreation sites. PML has been popular with researchers in this context, since it guards against many types of mis-specification errors. We demonstrate, however, that estimation results will generally be biased even if derived through PML if the recreation model is based on aggregate, or zonal data. To countervail this problem, we propose a zonal model of recreation that captures some of the underlying heterogeneity of individual visitors by incorporating distributional information on per-capita income into the aggregate demand function. This adjustment eliminates the unrealistic constraint of constant income across zonal residents, and thus reduces the risk of aggregation bias in estimated macro-parameters. The corrected aggregate specification reinstates the applicability of PML. It also increases model efficiency, and allows-for the generation of welfare estimates for population subgroups.

Assessing performance and validating finite element simulations using probabilistic knowledge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dolin, Ronald M.; Rodriguez, E. A.

Two probabilistic approaches for assessing performance are presented. The first approach assesses probability of failure by simultaneously modeling all likely events. The probability each event causes failure along with the event's likelihood of occurrence contribute to the overall probability of failure. The second assessment method is based on stochastic sampling using an influence diagram. Latin-hypercube sampling is used to stochastically assess events. The overall probability of failure is taken as the maximum probability of failure of all the events. The Likelihood of Occurrence simulation suggests failure does not occur while the Stochastic Sampling approach predicts failure. The Likelihood of Occurrencemore » results are used to validate finite element predictions.« less

Complete Genomes of Bacillus coagulans S-lac and Bacillus subtilis TO-A JPC, Two Phylogenetically Distinct Probiotics

PubMed Central

Ramya, T. N. C.; Subramanian, Srikrishna

2016-01-01

Several spore-forming strains of Bacillus are marketed as probiotics due to their ability to survive harsh gastrointestinal conditions and confer health benefits to the host. We report the complete genomes of two commercially available probiotics, Bacillus coagulans S-lac and Bacillus subtilis TO-A JPC, and compare them with the genomes of other Bacillus and Lactobacillus. The taxonomic position of both organisms was established with a maximum-likelihood tree based on twenty six housekeeping proteins. Analysis of all probiotic strains of Bacillus and Lactobacillus reveal that the essential sporulation proteins are conserved in all Bacillus probiotic strains while they are absent in Lactobacillus spp. We identified various antibiotic resistance, stress-related, and adhesion-related domains in these organisms, which likely provide support in exerting probiotic action by enabling adhesion to host epithelial cells and survival during antibiotic treatment and harsh conditions. PMID:27258038

Proportional exponentiated link transformed hazards (ELTH) models for discrete time survival data with application

PubMed Central

Joeng, Hee-Koung; Chen, Ming-Hui; Kang, Sangwook

2015-01-01

Discrete survival data are routinely encountered in many fields of study including behavior science, economics, epidemiology, medicine, and social science. In this paper, we develop a class of proportional exponentiated link transformed hazards (ELTH) models. We carry out a detailed examination of the role of links in fitting discrete survival data and estimating regression coefficients. Several interesting results are established regarding the choice of links and baseline hazards. We also characterize the conditions for improper survival functions and the conditions for existence of the maximum likelihood estimates under the proposed ELTH models. An extensive simulation study is conducted to examine the empirical performance of the parameter estimates under the Cox proportional hazards model by treating discrete survival times as continuous survival times, and the model comparison criteria, AIC and BIC, in determining links and baseline hazards. A SEER breast cancer dataset is analyzed in details to further demonstrate the proposed methodology. PMID:25772374

Complete Genomes of Bacillus coagulans S-lac and Bacillus subtilis TO-A JPC, Two Phylogenetically Distinct Probiotics.

PubMed

Khatri, Indu; Sharma, Shailza; Ramya, T N C; Subramanian, Srikrishna

2016-01-01

Several spore-forming strains of Bacillus are marketed as probiotics due to their ability to survive harsh gastrointestinal conditions and confer health benefits to the host. We report the complete genomes of two commercially available probiotics, Bacillus coagulans S-lac and Bacillus subtilis TO-A JPC, and compare them with the genomes of other Bacillus and Lactobacillus. The taxonomic position of both organisms was established with a maximum-likelihood tree based on twenty six housekeeping proteins. Analysis of all probiotic strains of Bacillus and Lactobacillus reveal that the essential sporulation proteins are conserved in all Bacillus probiotic strains while they are absent in Lactobacillus spp. We identified various antibiotic resistance, stress-related, and adhesion-related domains in these organisms, which likely provide support in exerting probiotic action by enabling adhesion to host epithelial cells and survival during antibiotic treatment and harsh conditions.

Interim Scientific Report: AFOSR-81-0122.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-05-05

Maximum likelihood. 2 Periton Lane, Mine-head, TA24 8AQ , England .... ...• .r- . ’ ’ "fl’ ’ ’ " .. ...... ’ ’"’ ’ - ’: , t i .a....,: Attachment 5

Using a genetic mixture model to study phenotypic traits: Differential fecundity among Yukon river Chinook Salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; Evenson, D.F.; McLain, T.H.; Flannery, B.G.

2011-01-01

Fecundity is a vital population characteristic that is directly linked to the productivity of fish populations. Historic data from Yukon River (Alaska) Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha suggest that length‐adjusted fecundity differs among populations within the drainage and either is temporally variable or has declined. Yukon River Chinook salmon have been harvested in large‐mesh gill‐net fisheries for decades, and a decline in fecundity was considered a potential evolutionary response to size‐selective exploitation. The implications for fishery conservation and management led us to further investigate the fecundity of Yukon River Chinook salmon populations. Matched observations of fecundity, length, and genotype were collected from a sample of adult females captured from the multipopulation spawning migration near the mouth of the Yukon River in 2008. These data were modeled by using a new mixture model, which was developed by extending the conditional maximum likelihood mixture model that is commonly used to estimate the composition of multipopulation mixtures based on genetic data. The new model facilitates maximum likelihood estimation of stock‐specific fecundity parameters without first using individual assignment to a putative population of origin, thus avoiding potential biases caused by assignment error. The hypothesis that fecundity of Chinook salmon has declined was not supported; this result implies that fecundity exhibits high interannual variability. However, length‐adjusted fecundity estimates decreased as migratory distance increased, and fecundity was more strongly dependent on fish size for populations spawning in the middle and upper portions of the drainage. These findings provide insights into potential constraints on reproductive investment imposed by long migrations and warrant consideration in fisheries management and conservation. The new mixture model extends the utility of genetic markers to new applications and can be easily adapted to study any observable trait or condition that may vary among populations.

Studying parents and grandparents to assess genetic contributions to early-onset disease.

PubMed

Weinberg, Clarice R

2003-02-01

Suppose DNA is available from affected individuals, their parents, and their grandparents. Particularly for early-onset diseases, maternally mediated genetic effects can play a role, because the mother determines the prenatal environment. The proposed maximum-likelihood approach for the detection of apparent transmission distortion treats the triad consisting of the affected individual and his or her two parents as the outcome, conditioning on grandparental mating types. Under a null model in which the allele under study does not confer susceptibility, either through linkage or directly, and when there are no maternally mediated genetic effects, conditional probabilities for specific triads are easily derived. A log-linear model permits a likelihood-ratio test (LRT) and allows the estimation of relative penetrances. The proposed approach is robust against genetic population stratification. Missing-data methods permit the inclusion of incomplete families, even if the missing person is the affected grandchild, as is the case when an induced abortion has followed the detection of a malformation. When screening multiple markers, one can begin by genotyping only the grandparents and the affected grandchildren. LRTs based on conditioning on grandparental mating types (i.e., ignoring the parents) have asymptotic relative efficiencies that are typically >150% (per family), compared with tests based on parents. A test for asymmetry in the number of copies carried by maternal versus paternal grandparents yields an LRT specific to maternal effects. One can then genotype the parents for only the genes that passed the initial screen. Conditioning on both the grandparents' and the affected grandchild's genotypes, a third log-linear model captures the remaining information, in an independent LRT for maternal effects.

optBINS: Optimal Binning for histograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knuth, Kevin H.

2018-03-01

optBINS (optimal binning) determines the optimal number of bins in a uniform bin-width histogram by deriving the posterior probability for the number of bins in a piecewise-constant density model after assigning a multinomial likelihood and a non-informative prior. The maximum of the posterior probability occurs at a point where the prior probability and the the joint likelihood are balanced. The interplay between these opposing factors effectively implements Occam's razor by selecting the most simple model that best describes the data.

Integrated Efforts for Analysis of Geophysical Measurements and Models.

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-09-26

12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE 13. ABSTRACT ( Maximum 200 words) This contract supported investigations of integrated applications of physics, ephemerides...REGIONS AND GPS DATA VALIDATIONS 20 2.5 PL-SCINDA: VISUALIZATION AND ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES 22 2.5.1 View Controls 23 2.5.2 Map Selection...and IR data, about cloudy pixels. Clustering and maximum likelihood classification algorithms categorize up to four cloud layers into stratiform or

Statistical inference based on the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator under double-truncation.

PubMed

Emura, Takeshi; Konno, Yoshihiko; Michimae, Hirofumi

2015-07-01

Doubly truncated data consist of samples whose observed values fall between the right- and left- truncation limits. With such samples, the distribution function of interest is estimated using the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) that is obtained through a self-consistency algorithm. Owing to the complicated asymptotic distribution of the NPMLE, the bootstrap method has been suggested for statistical inference. This paper proposes a closed-form estimator for the asymptotic covariance function of the NPMLE, which is computationally attractive alternative to bootstrapping. Furthermore, we develop various statistical inference procedures, such as confidence interval, goodness-of-fit tests, and confidence bands to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed covariance estimator. Simulations are performed to compare the proposed method with both the bootstrap and jackknife methods. The methods are illustrated using the childhood cancer dataset.

NLSCIDNT user's guide maximum likehood parameter identification computer program with nonlinear rotorcraft model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

A nonlinear, maximum likelihood, parameter identification computer program (NLSCIDNT) is described which evaluates rotorcraft stability and control coefficients from flight test data. The optimal estimates of the parameters (stability and control coefficients) are determined (identified) by minimizing the negative log likelihood cost function. The minimization technique is the Levenberg-Marquardt method, which behaves like the steepest descent method when it is far from the minimum and behaves like the modified Newton-Raphson method when it is nearer the minimum. Twenty-one states and 40 measurement variables are modeled, and any subset may be selected. States which are not integrated may be fixed at an input value, or time history data may be substituted for the state in the equations of motion. Any aerodynamic coefficient may be expressed as a nonlinear polynomial function of selected 'expansion variables'.

An Example of an Improvable Rao-Blackwell Improvement, Inefficient Maximum Likelihood Estimator, and Unbiased Generalized Bayes Estimator.

PubMed

Galili, Tal; Meilijson, Isaac

2016-01-02

The Rao-Blackwell theorem offers a procedure for converting a crude unbiased estimator of a parameter θ into a "better" one, in fact unique and optimal if the improvement is based on a minimal sufficient statistic that is complete. In contrast, behind every minimal sufficient statistic that is not complete, there is an improvable Rao-Blackwell improvement. This is illustrated via a simple example based on the uniform distribution, in which a rather natural Rao-Blackwell improvement is uniformly improvable. Furthermore, in this example the maximum likelihood estimator is inefficient, and an unbiased generalized Bayes estimator performs exceptionally well. Counterexamples of this sort can be useful didactic tools for explaining the true nature of a methodology and possible consequences when some of the assumptions are violated. [Received December 2014. Revised September 2015.].

On the error probability of general tree and trellis codes with applications to sequential decoding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johannesson, R.

1973-01-01

An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random binary tree codes is derived and shown to be independent of the length of the tree. An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random L-branch binary trellis codes of rate R = 1/n is derived which separates the effects of the tail length T and the memory length M of the code. It is shown that the bound is independent of the length L of the information sequence. This implication is investigated by computer simulations of sequential decoding utilizing the stack algorithm. These simulations confirm the implication and further suggest an empirical formula for the true undetected decoding error probability with sequential decoding.

Parallel implementation of D-Phylo algorithm for maximum likelihood clusters.

PubMed

Malik, Shamita; Sharma, Dolly; Khatri, Sunil Kumar

2017-03-01

This study explains a newly developed parallel algorithm for phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequences. The newly designed D-Phylo is a more advanced algorithm for phylogenetic analysis using maximum likelihood approach. The D-Phylo while misusing the seeking capacity of k -means keeps away from its real constraint of getting stuck at privately conserved motifs. The authors have tested the behaviour of D-Phylo on Amazon Linux Amazon Machine Image(Hardware Virtual Machine)i2.4xlarge, six central processing unit, 122 GiB memory, 8  ×  800 Solid-state drive Elastic Block Store volume, high network performance up to 15 processors for several real-life datasets. Distributing the clusters evenly on all the processors provides us the capacity to accomplish a near direct speed if there should arise an occurrence of huge number of processors.

Image classification at low light levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wernick, Miles N.; Morris, G. Michael

1986-12-01

An imaging photon-counting detector is used to achieve automatic sorting of two image classes. The classification decision is formed on the basis of the cross correlation between a photon-limited input image and a reference function stored in computer memory. Expressions for the statistical parameters of the low-light-level correlation signal are given and are verified experimentally. To obtain a correlation-based system for two-class sorting, it is necessary to construct a reference function that produces useful information for class discrimination. An expression for such a reference function is derived using maximum-likelihood decision theory. Theoretically predicted results are used to compare on the basis of performance the maximum-likelihood reference function with Fukunaga-Koontz basis vectors and average filters. For each method, good class discrimination is found to result in milliseconds from a sparse sampling of the input image.

Pointwise nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of stochastically ordered survivor functions

PubMed Central

Park, Yongseok; Taylor, Jeremy M. G.; Kalbfleisch, John D.

2012-01-01

In this paper, we consider estimation of survivor functions from groups of observations with right-censored data when the groups are subject to a stochastic ordering constraint. Many methods and algorithms have been proposed to estimate distribution functions under such restrictions, but none have completely satisfactory properties when the observations are censored. We propose a pointwise constrained nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator, which is defined at each time t by the estimates of the survivor functions subject to constraints applied at time t only. We also propose an efficient method to obtain the estimator. The estimator of each constrained survivor function is shown to be nonincreasing in t, and its consistency and asymptotic distribution are established. A simulation study suggests better small and large sample properties than for alternative estimators. An example using prostate cancer data illustrates the method. PMID:23843661

The effect of high leverage points on the logistic ridge regression estimator having multicollinearity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ariffin, Syaiba Balqish; Midi, Habshah

2014-06-01

This article is concerned with the performance of logistic ridge regression estimation technique in the presence of multicollinearity and high leverage points. In logistic regression, multicollinearity exists among predictors and in the information matrix. The maximum likelihood estimator suffers a huge setback in the presence of multicollinearity which cause regression estimates to have unduly large standard errors. To remedy this problem, a logistic ridge regression estimator is put forward. It is evident that the logistic ridge regression estimator outperforms the maximum likelihood approach for handling multicollinearity. The effect of high leverage points are then investigated on the performance of the logistic ridge regression estimator through real data set and simulation study. The findings signify that logistic ridge regression estimator fails to provide better parameter estimates in the presence of both high leverage points and multicollinearity.

A real-time signal combining system for Ka-band feed arrays using maximum-likelihood weight estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vilnrotter, V. A.; Rodemich, E. R.

1990-01-01

A real-time digital signal combining system for use with Ka-band feed arrays is proposed. The combining system attempts to compensate for signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) loss resulting from antenna deformations induced by gravitational and atmospheric effects. The combining weights are obtained directly from the observed samples by using a sliding-window implementation of a vector maximum-likelihood parameter estimator. It is shown that with averaging times of about 0.1 second, combining loss for a seven-element array can be limited to about 0.1 dB in a realistic operational environment. This result suggests that the real-time combining system proposed here is capable of recovering virtually all of the signal power captured by the feed array, even in the presence of severe wind gusts and similar disturbances.

Fast automated analysis of strong gravitational lenses with convolutional neural networks.

PubMed

Hezaveh, Yashar D; Levasseur, Laurence Perreault; Marshall, Philip J

2017-08-30

Quantifying image distortions caused by strong gravitational lensing-the formation of multiple images of distant sources due to the deflection of their light by the gravity of intervening structures-and estimating the corresponding matter distribution of these structures (the 'gravitational lens') has primarily been performed using maximum likelihood modelling of observations. This procedure is typically time- and resource-consuming, requiring sophisticated lensing codes, several data preparation steps, and finding the maximum likelihood model parameters in a computationally expensive process with downhill optimizers. Accurate analysis of a single gravitational lens can take up to a few weeks and requires expert knowledge of the physical processes and methods involved. Tens of thousands of new lenses are expected to be discovered with the upcoming generation of ground and space surveys. Here we report the use of deep convolutional neural networks to estimate lensing parameters in an extremely fast and automated way, circumventing the difficulties that are faced by maximum likelihood methods. We also show that the removal of lens light can be made fast and automated using independent component analysis of multi-filter imaging data. Our networks can recover the parameters of the 'singular isothermal ellipsoid' density profile, which is commonly used to model strong lensing systems, with an accuracy comparable to the uncertainties of sophisticated models but about ten million times faster: 100 systems in approximately one second on a single graphics processing unit. These networks can provide a way for non-experts to obtain estimates of lensing parameters for large samples of data.

Modeling the distribution of extreme share return in Malaysia using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Kassim, Suraiya

2012-05-01

Extreme share return in Malaysia is studied. The monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum returns are fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are performed to test for stationarity, while Mann-Kendall (MK) test is for the presence of monotonic trend. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is used to estimate the parameter while L-moments estimate (LMOM) is used to initialize the MLE optimization routine for the stationary model. Likelihood ratio test is performed to determine the best model. Sherman's goodness of fit test is used to assess the quality of convergence of the GEV distribution by these monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum. Returns levels are then estimated for prediction and planning purposes. The results show all maximum returns for all selection periods are stationary. The Mann-Kendall test indicates the existence of trend. Thus, we ought to model for non-stationary model too. Model 2, where the location parameter is increasing with time is the best for all selection intervals. Sherman's goodness of fit test shows that monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum converge to the GEV distribution. From the results, it seems reasonable to conclude that yearly maximum is better for the convergence to the GEV distribution especially if longer records are available. Return level estimates, which is the return level (in this study return amount) that is expected to be exceeded, an average, once every t time periods starts to appear in the confidence interval of T = 50 for quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum.

Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

PubMed

Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

Maximum likelihood estimation and EM algorithm of Copas-like selection model for publication bias correction.

PubMed

Ning, Jing; Chen, Yong; Piao, Jin

2017-07-01

Publication bias occurs when the published research results are systematically unrepresentative of the population of studies that have been conducted, and is a potential threat to meaningful meta-analysis. The Copas selection model provides a flexible framework for correcting estimates and offers considerable insight into the publication bias. However, maximizing the observed likelihood under the Copas selection model is challenging because the observed data contain very little information on the latent variable. In this article, we study a Copas-like selection model and propose an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for estimation based on the full likelihood. Empirical simulation studies show that the EM algorithm and its associated inferential procedure performs well and avoids the non-convergence problem when maximizing the observed likelihood. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

2015-02-01

In this study, two series of data for extreme rainfall events are generated based on Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Methods, derived from 102 rain-gauge stations in Peninsular from 1982-2012. To determine the optimal threshold for each station, several requirements must be satisfied and Adapted Hill estimator is employed for this purpose. A semi-parametric bootstrap is then used to estimate the mean square error (MSE) of the estimator at each threshold and the optimal threshold is selected based on the smallest MSE. The mean annual frequency is also checked to ensure that it lies in the range of one to five and the resulting data is also de-clustered to ensure independence. The two data series are then fitted to Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions for annual maximum and partial duration series, respectively. The parameter estimation methods used are the Maximum Likelihood and the L-moment methods. Two goodness of fit tests are then used to evaluate the best-fitted distribution. The results showed that the Partial Duration series with Generalized Pareto distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation provides the best representation for extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia for majority of the stations studied. Based on these findings, several return values are also derived and spatial mapping are constructed to identify the distribution characteristic of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia.

Evaluating Fast Maximum Likelihood-Based Phylogenetic Programs Using Empirical Phylogenomic Data Sets

PubMed Central

Zhou, Xiaofan; Shen, Xing-Xing; Hittinger, Chris Todd

2018-01-01

Abstract The sizes of the data matrices assembled to resolve branches of the tree of life have increased dramatically, motivating the development of programs for fast, yet accurate, inference. For example, several different fast programs have been developed in the very popular maximum likelihood framework, including RAxML/ExaML, PhyML, IQ-TREE, and FastTree. Although these programs are widely used, a systematic evaluation and comparison of their performance using empirical genome-scale data matrices has so far been lacking. To address this question, we evaluated these four programs on 19 empirical phylogenomic data sets with hundreds to thousands of genes and up to 200 taxa with respect to likelihood maximization, tree topology, and computational speed. For single-gene tree inference, we found that the more exhaustive and slower strategies (ten searches per alignment) outperformed faster strategies (one tree search per alignment) using RAxML, PhyML, or IQ-TREE. Interestingly, single-gene trees inferred by the three programs yielded comparable coalescent-based species tree estimations. For concatenation-based species tree inference, IQ-TREE consistently achieved the best-observed likelihoods for all data sets, and RAxML/ExaML was a close second. In contrast, PhyML often failed to complete concatenation-based analyses, whereas FastTree was the fastest but generated lower likelihood values and more dissimilar tree topologies in both types of analyses. Finally, data matrix properties, such as the number of taxa and the strength of phylogenetic signal, sometimes substantially influenced the programs’ relative performance. Our results provide real-world gene and species tree phylogenetic inference benchmarks to inform the design and execution of large-scale phylogenomic data analyses. PMID:29177474

A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

DOE PAGES

Ye, Xin; Garikapati, Venu M.; You, Daehyun; ...

2017-11-08

Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basismore » of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.« less

A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Xin; Garikapati, Venu M.; You, Daehyun

Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basismore » of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.« less

Accurate motor mapping in awake common marmosets using micro-electrocorticographical stimulation and stochastic threshold estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosugi, Akito; Takemi, Mitsuaki; Tia, Banty; Castagnola, Elisa; Ansaldo, Alberto; Sato, Kenta; Awiszus, Friedemann; Seki, Kazuhiko; Ricci, Davide; Fadiga, Luciano; Iriki, Atsushi; Ushiba, Junichi

2018-06-01

Objective. Motor map has been widely used as an indicator of motor skills and learning, cortical injury, plasticity, and functional recovery. Cortical stimulation mapping using epidural electrodes is recently adopted for animal studies. However, several technical limitations still remain. Test-retest reliability of epidural cortical stimulation (ECS) mapping has not been examined in detail. Many previous studies defined evoked movements and motor thresholds by visual inspection, and thus, lacked quantitative measurements. A reliable and quantitative motor map is important to elucidate the mechanisms of motor cortical reorganization. The objective of the current study was to perform reliable ECS mapping of motor representations based on the motor thresholds, which were stochastically estimated by motor evoked potentials and chronically implanted micro-electrocorticographical (µECoG) electrode arrays, in common marmosets. Approach. ECS was applied using the implanted µECoG electrode arrays in three adult common marmosets under awake conditions. Motor evoked potentials were recorded through electromyographical electrodes implanted in upper limb muscles. The motor threshold was calculated through a modified maximum likelihood threshold-hunting algorithm fitted with the recorded data from marmosets. Further, a computer simulation confirmed reliability of the algorithm. Main results. Computer simulation suggested that the modified maximum likelihood threshold-hunting algorithm enabled to estimate motor threshold with acceptable precision. In vivo ECS mapping showed high test-retest reliability with respect to the excitability and location of the cortical forelimb motor representations. Significance. Using implanted µECoG electrode arrays and a modified motor threshold-hunting algorithm, we were able to achieve reliable motor mapping in common marmosets with the ECS system.

Accurate motor mapping in awake common marmosets using micro-electrocorticographical stimulation and stochastic threshold estimation.

PubMed

Kosugi, Akito; Takemi, Mitsuaki; Tia, Banty; Castagnola, Elisa; Ansaldo, Alberto; Sato, Kenta; Awiszus, Friedemann; Seki, Kazuhiko; Ricci, Davide; Fadiga, Luciano; Iriki, Atsushi; Ushiba, Junichi

2018-06-01

Motor map has been widely used as an indicator of motor skills and learning, cortical injury, plasticity, and functional recovery. Cortical stimulation mapping using epidural electrodes is recently adopted for animal studies. However, several technical limitations still remain. Test-retest reliability of epidural cortical stimulation (ECS) mapping has not been examined in detail. Many previous studies defined evoked movements and motor thresholds by visual inspection, and thus, lacked quantitative measurements. A reliable and quantitative motor map is important to elucidate the mechanisms of motor cortical reorganization. The objective of the current study was to perform reliable ECS mapping of motor representations based on the motor thresholds, which were stochastically estimated by motor evoked potentials and chronically implanted micro-electrocorticographical (µECoG) electrode arrays, in common marmosets. ECS was applied using the implanted µECoG electrode arrays in three adult common marmosets under awake conditions. Motor evoked potentials were recorded through electromyographical electrodes implanted in upper limb muscles. The motor threshold was calculated through a modified maximum likelihood threshold-hunting algorithm fitted with the recorded data from marmosets. Further, a computer simulation confirmed reliability of the algorithm. Computer simulation suggested that the modified maximum likelihood threshold-hunting algorithm enabled to estimate motor threshold with acceptable precision. In vivo ECS mapping showed high test-retest reliability with respect to the excitability and location of the cortical forelimb motor representations. Using implanted µECoG electrode arrays and a modified motor threshold-hunting algorithm, we were able to achieve reliable motor mapping in common marmosets with the ECS system.

Testing the Potential of Vegetation Indices for Land Use/cover Classification Using High Resolution Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakacan Kuzucu, A.; Bektas Balcik, F.

2017-11-01

Accurate and reliable land use/land cover (LULC) information obtained by remote sensing technology is necessary in many applications such as environmental monitoring, agricultural management, urban planning, hydrological applications, soil management, vegetation condition study and suitability analysis. But this information still remains a challenge especially in heterogeneous landscapes covering urban and rural areas due to spectrally similar LULC features. In parallel with technological developments, supplementary data such as satellite-derived spectral indices have begun to be used as additional bands in classification to produce data with high accuracy. The aim of this research is to test the potential of spectral vegetation indices combination with supervised classification methods and to extract reliable LULC information from SPOT 7 multispectral imagery. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Ratio Vegetation Index (RATIO), the Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) were the three vegetation indices used in this study. The classical maximum likelihood classifier (MLC) and support vector machine (SVM) algorithm were applied to classify SPOT 7 image. Catalca is selected region located in the north west of the Istanbul in Turkey, which has complex landscape covering artificial surface, forest and natural area, agricultural field, quarry/mining area, pasture/scrubland and water body. Accuracy assessment of all classified images was performed through overall accuracy and kappa coefficient. The results indicated that the incorporation of these three different vegetation indices decrease the classification accuracy for the MLC and SVM classification. In addition, the maximum likelihood classification slightly outperformed the support vector machine classification approach in both overall accuracy and kappa statistics.

Restricted maximum likelihood estimation of genetic principal components and smoothed covariance matrices

PubMed Central

Meyer, Karin; Kirkpatrick, Mark

2005-01-01

Principal component analysis is a widely used 'dimension reduction' technique, albeit generally at a phenotypic level. It is shown that we can estimate genetic principal components directly through a simple reparameterisation of the usual linear, mixed model. This is applicable to any analysis fitting multiple, correlated genetic effects, whether effects for individual traits or sets of random regression coefficients to model trajectories. Depending on the magnitude of genetic correlation, a subset of the principal component generally suffices to capture the bulk of genetic variation. Corresponding estimates of genetic covariance matrices are more parsimonious, have reduced rank and are smoothed, with the number of parameters required to model the dispersion structure reduced from k(k + 1)/2 to m(2k - m + 1)/2 for k effects and m principal components. Estimation of these parameters, the largest eigenvalues and pertaining eigenvectors of the genetic covariance matrix, via restricted maximum likelihood using derivatives of the likelihood, is described. It is shown that reduced rank estimation can reduce computational requirements of multivariate analyses substantially. An application to the analysis of eight traits recorded via live ultrasound scanning of beef cattle is given. PMID:15588566

Neandertal admixture in Eurasia confirmed by maximum-likelihood analysis of three genomes.

PubMed

Lohse, Konrad; Frantz, Laurent A F

2014-04-01

Although there has been much interest in estimating histories of divergence and admixture from genomic data, it has proved difficult to distinguish recent admixture from long-term structure in the ancestral population. Thus, recent genome-wide analyses based on summary statistics have sparked controversy about the possibility of interbreeding between Neandertals and modern humans in Eurasia. Here we derive the probability of full mutational configurations in nonrecombining sequence blocks under both admixture and ancestral structure scenarios. Dividing the genome into short blocks gives an efficient way to compute maximum-likelihood estimates of parameters. We apply this likelihood scheme to triplets of human and Neandertal genomes and compare the relative support for a model of admixture from Neandertals into Eurasian populations after their expansion out of Africa against a history of persistent structure in their common ancestral population in Africa. Our analysis allows us to conclusively reject a model of ancestral structure in Africa and instead reveals strong support for Neandertal admixture in Eurasia at a higher rate (3.4-7.3%) than suggested previously. Using analysis and simulations we show that our inference is more powerful than previous summary statistics and robust to realistic levels of recombination.

Neandertal Admixture in Eurasia Confirmed by Maximum-Likelihood Analysis of Three Genomes

PubMed Central

Lohse, Konrad; Frantz, Laurent A. F.

2014-01-01

Although there has been much interest in estimating histories of divergence and admixture from genomic data, it has proved difficult to distinguish recent admixture from long-term structure in the ancestral population. Thus, recent genome-wide analyses based on summary statistics have sparked controversy about the possibility of interbreeding between Neandertals and modern humans in Eurasia. Here we derive the probability of full mutational configurations in nonrecombining sequence blocks under both admixture and ancestral structure scenarios. Dividing the genome into short blocks gives an efficient way to compute maximum-likelihood estimates of parameters. We apply this likelihood scheme to triplets of human and Neandertal genomes and compare the relative support for a model of admixture from Neandertals into Eurasian populations after their expansion out of Africa against a history of persistent structure in their common ancestral population in Africa. Our analysis allows us to conclusively reject a model of ancestral structure in Africa and instead reveals strong support for Neandertal admixture in Eurasia at a higher rate (3.4−7.3%) than suggested previously. Using analysis and simulations we show that our inference is more powerful than previous summary statistics and robust to realistic levels of recombination. PMID:24532731

Estimating cellular parameters through optimization procedures: elementary principles and applications.

PubMed

Kimura, Akatsuki; Celani, Antonio; Nagao, Hiromichi; Stasevich, Timothy; Nakamura, Kazuyuki

2015-01-01

Construction of quantitative models is a primary goal of quantitative biology, which aims to understand cellular and organismal phenomena in a quantitative manner. In this article, we introduce optimization procedures to search for parameters in a quantitative model that can reproduce experimental data. The aim of optimization is to minimize the sum of squared errors (SSE) in a prediction or to maximize likelihood. A (local) maximum of likelihood or (local) minimum of the SSE can efficiently be identified using gradient approaches. Addition of a stochastic process enables us to identify the global maximum/minimum without becoming trapped in local maxima/minima. Sampling approaches take advantage of increasing computational power to test numerous sets of parameters in order to determine the optimum set. By combining Bayesian inference with gradient or sampling approaches, we can estimate both the optimum parameters and the form of the likelihood function related to the parameters. Finally, we introduce four examples of research that utilize parameter optimization to obtain biological insights from quantified data: transcriptional regulation, bacterial chemotaxis, morphogenesis, and cell cycle regulation. With practical knowledge of parameter optimization, cell and developmental biologists can develop realistic models that reproduce their observations and thus, obtain mechanistic insights into phenomena of interest.

Phylogenetic evidence for cladogenetic polyploidization in land plants.

PubMed

Zhan, Shing H; Drori, Michal; Goldberg, Emma E; Otto, Sarah P; Mayrose, Itay

2016-07-01

Polyploidization is a common and recurring phenomenon in plants and is often thought to be a mechanism of "instant speciation". Whether polyploidization is associated with the formation of new species (cladogenesis) or simply occurs over time within a lineage (anagenesis), however, has never been assessed systematically. We tested this hypothesis using phylogenetic and karyotypic information from 235 plant genera (mostly angiosperms). We first constructed a large database of combined sequence and chromosome number data sets using an automated procedure. We then applied likelihood models (ClaSSE) that estimate the degree of synchronization between polyploidization and speciation events in maximum likelihood and Bayesian frameworks. Our maximum likelihood analysis indicated that 35 genera supported a model that includes cladogenetic transitions over a model with only anagenetic transitions, whereas three genera supported a model that incorporates anagenetic transitions over one with only cladogenetic transitions. Furthermore, the Bayesian analysis supported a preponderance of cladogenetic change in four genera but did not support a preponderance of anagenetic change in any genus. Overall, these phylogenetic analyses provide the first broad confirmation that polyploidization is temporally associated with speciation events, suggesting that it is indeed a major speciation mechanism in plants, at least in some genera. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

GNSS Spoofing Detection and Mitigation Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation

PubMed Central

Li, Hong; Lu, Mingquan

2017-01-01

Spoofing attacks are threatening the global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)-based positioning technique is a direct positioning method originally developed for multipath rejection and weak signal processing. We find this method also has a potential ability for GNSS anti-spoofing since a spoofing attack that misleads the positioning and timing result will cause distortion to the MLE cost function. Based on the method, an estimation-cancellation approach is presented to detect spoofing attacks and recover the navigation solution. A statistic is derived for spoofing detection with the principle of the generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT). Then, the MLE cost function is decomposed to further validate whether the navigation solution obtained by MLE-based positioning is formed by consistent signals. Both formulae and simulations are provided to evaluate the anti-spoofing performance. Experiments with recordings in real GNSS spoofing scenarios are also performed to validate the practicability of the approach. Results show that the method works even when the code phase differences between the spoofing and authentic signals are much less than one code chip, which can improve the availability of GNSS service greatly under spoofing attacks. PMID:28665318

GNSS Spoofing Detection and Mitigation Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation.

PubMed

Wang, Fei; Li, Hong; Lu, Mingquan

2017-06-30

Spoofing attacks are threatening the global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)-based positioning technique is a direct positioning method originally developed for multipath rejection and weak signal processing. We find this method also has a potential ability for GNSS anti-spoofing since a spoofing attack that misleads the positioning and timing result will cause distortion to the MLE cost function. Based on the method, an estimation-cancellation approach is presented to detect spoofing attacks and recover the navigation solution. A statistic is derived for spoofing detection with the principle of the generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT). Then, the MLE cost function is decomposed to further validate whether the navigation solution obtained by MLE-based positioning is formed by consistent signals. Both formulae and simulations are provided to evaluate the anti-spoofing performance. Experiments with recordings in real GNSS spoofing scenarios are also performed to validate the practicability of the approach. Results show that the method works even when the code phase differences between the spoofing and authentic signals are much less than one code chip, which can improve the availability of GNSS service greatly under spoofing attacks.

Integrating Entropy-Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard.

PubMed

Liu, Rui; Chen, Yun; Wu, Jianping; Gao, Lei; Barrett, Damian; Xu, Tingbao; Li, Xiaojuan; Li, Linyi; Huang, Chang; Yu, Jia

2017-04-01

Regional flood risk caused by intensive rainfall under extreme climate conditions has increasingly attracted global attention. Mapping and evaluation of flood hazard are vital parts in flood risk assessment. This study develops an integrated framework for estimating spatial likelihood of flood hazard by coupling weighted naïve Bayes (WNB), geographic information system, and remote sensing. The north part of Fitzroy River Basin in Queensland, Australia, was selected as a case study site. The environmental indices, including extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, net-water index, soil water retention, elevation, slope, drainage proximity, and density, were generated from spatial data representing climate, soil, vegetation, hydrology, and topography. These indices were weighted using the statistics-based entropy method. The weighted indices were input into the WNB-based model to delineate a regional flood risk map that indicates the likelihood of flood occurrence. The resultant map was validated by the maximum inundation extent extracted from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. The evaluation results, including mapping and evaluation of the distribution of flood hazard, are helpful in guiding flood inundation disaster responses for the region. The novel approach presented consists of weighted grid data, image-based sampling and validation, cell-by-cell probability inferring and spatial mapping. It is superior to an existing spatial naive Bayes (NB) method for regional flood hazard assessment. It can also be extended to other likelihood-related environmental hazard studies. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluation of several schemes for classification of remotely sensed data: Their parameters and performance. [Foster County, North Dakota; Grant County, Kansas; Iroquois County, Illinois, Tippecanoe County, Indiana; and Pottawattamie and Shelby Counties, Iowa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scholz, D.; Fuhs, N.; Hixson, M.; Akiyama, T. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Data sets for corn, soybeans, winter wheat, and spring wheat were used to evaluate the following schemes for crop identification: (1) per point Gaussian maximum classifier; (2) per point sum of normal densities classifiers; (3) per point linear classifier; (4) per point Gaussian maximum likelihood decision tree classifiers; and (5) texture sensitive per field Gaussian maximum likelihood classifier. Test site location and classifier both had significant effects on classification accuracy of small grains; classifiers did not differ significantly in overall accuracy, with the majority of the difference among classifiers being attributed to training method rather than to the classification algorithm applied. The complexity of use and computer costs for the classifiers varied significantly. A linear classification rule which assigns each pixel to the class whose mean is closest in Euclidean distance was the easiest for the analyst and cost the least per classification.

Statistical field estimators for multiscale simulations.

PubMed

Eapen, Jacob; Li, Ju; Yip, Sidney

2005-11-01

We present a systematic approach for generating smooth and accurate fields from particle simulation data using the notions of statistical inference. As an extension to a parametric representation based on the maximum likelihood technique previously developed for velocity and temperature fields, a nonparametric estimator based on the principle of maximum entropy is proposed for particle density and stress fields. Both estimators are applied to represent molecular dynamics data on shear-driven flow in an enclosure which exhibits a high degree of nonlinear characteristics. We show that the present density estimator is a significant improvement over ad hoc bin averaging and is also free of systematic boundary artifacts that appear in the method of smoothing kernel estimates. Similarly, the velocity fields generated by the maximum likelihood estimator do not show any edge effects that can be erroneously interpreted as slip at the wall. For low Reynolds numbers, the velocity fields and streamlines generated by the present estimator are benchmarked against Newtonian continuum calculations. For shear velocities that are a significant fraction of the thermal speed, we observe a form of shear localization that is induced by the confining boundary.

Maximum-likelihood estimation of recent shared ancestry (ERSA).

PubMed

Huff, Chad D; Witherspoon, David J; Simonson, Tatum S; Xing, Jinchuan; Watkins, W Scott; Zhang, Yuhua; Tuohy, Therese M; Neklason, Deborah W; Burt, Randall W; Guthery, Stephen L; Woodward, Scott R; Jorde, Lynn B

2011-05-01

Accurate estimation of recent shared ancestry is important for genetics, evolution, medicine, conservation biology, and forensics. Established methods estimate kinship accurately for first-degree through third-degree relatives. We demonstrate that chromosomal segments shared by two individuals due to identity by descent (IBD) provide much additional information about shared ancestry. We developed a maximum-likelihood method for the estimation of recent shared ancestry (ERSA) from the number and lengths of IBD segments derived from high-density SNP or whole-genome sequence data. We used ERSA to estimate relationships from SNP genotypes in 169 individuals from three large, well-defined human pedigrees. ERSA is accurate to within one degree of relationship for 97% of first-degree through fifth-degree relatives and 80% of sixth-degree and seventh-degree relatives. We demonstrate that ERSA's statistical power approaches the maximum theoretical limit imposed by the fact that distant relatives frequently share no DNA through a common ancestor. ERSA greatly expands the range of relationships that can be estimated from genetic data and is implemented in a freely available software package.

Flight-determined correction terms for angle of attack and sideslip

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shafer, M. F.

1982-01-01

The effects of local flow, upwash, and sidewash on angle of attack and sideslip (measured with boom-mounted vanes) were determined for subsonic, transonic, and supersonic flight using a maximum likelihood estimator. The correction terms accounting for these effects were determined using a series of maneuvers flown at a large number of flight conditions in both augmented and unaugmented control modes. The correction terms provide improved angle-of-attack and sideslip values for use in the estimation of stability and control derivatives. In addition to detailing the procedure used to determine these correction terms, this paper discusses various effects, such as those related to Mach number, on the correction terms. The use of maneuvers flown in augmented and unaugmented control modes is also discussed.

Multisite EPR oximetry from multiple quadrature harmonics.

PubMed

Ahmad, R; Som, S; Johnson, D H; Zweier, J L; Kuppusamy, P; Potter, L C

2012-01-01

Multisite continuous wave (CW) electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) oximetry using multiple quadrature field modulation harmonics is presented. First, a recently developed digital receiver is used to extract multiple harmonics of field modulated projection data. Second, a forward model is presented that relates the projection data to unknown parameters, including linewidth at each site. Third, a maximum likelihood estimator of unknown parameters is reported using an iterative algorithm capable of jointly processing multiple quadrature harmonics. The data modeling and processing are applicable for parametric lineshapes under nonsaturating conditions. Joint processing of multiple harmonics leads to 2-3-fold acceleration of EPR data acquisition. For demonstration in two spatial dimensions, both simulations and phantom studies on an L-band system are reported. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.

2013-01-01

The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

Spurious Latent Class Problem in the Mixed Rasch Model: A Comparison of Three Maximum Likelihood Estimation Methods under Different Ability Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sen, Sedat

2018-01-01

Recent research has shown that over-extraction of latent classes can be observed in the Bayesian estimation of the mixed Rasch model when the distribution of ability is non-normal. This study examined the effect of non-normal ability distributions on the number of latent classes in the mixed Rasch model when estimated with maximum likelihood…

Maximum entropy approach to statistical inference for an ocean acoustic waveguide.

PubMed

Knobles, D P; Sagers, J D; Koch, R A

2012-02-01

A conditional probability distribution suitable for estimating the statistical properties of ocean seabed parameter values inferred from acoustic measurements is derived from a maximum entropy principle. The specification of the expectation value for an error function constrains the maximization of an entropy functional. This constraint determines the sensitivity factor (β) to the error function of the resulting probability distribution, which is a canonical form that provides a conservative estimate of the uncertainty of the parameter values. From the conditional distribution, marginal distributions for individual parameters can be determined from integration over the other parameters. The approach is an alternative to obtaining the posterior probability distribution without an intermediary determination of the likelihood function followed by an application of Bayes' rule. In this paper the expectation value that specifies the constraint is determined from the values of the error function for the model solutions obtained from a sparse number of data samples. The method is applied to ocean acoustic measurements taken on the New Jersey continental shelf. The marginal probability distribution for the values of the sound speed ratio at the surface of the seabed and the source levels of a towed source are examined for different geoacoustic model representations. © 2012 Acoustical Society of America

A random walk model for evaluating clinical trials involving serial observations.

PubMed

Hopper, J L; Young, G P

1988-05-01

For clinical trials where the variable of interest is ordered and categorical (for example, disease severity, symptom scale), and where measurements are taken at intervals, it might be possible to achieve a greater discrimination between the efficacy of treatments by modelling each patient's progress as a stochastic process. The random walk is a simple, easily interpreted model that can be fitted by maximum likelihood using a maximization routine with inference based on standard likelihood theory. In general the model can allow for randomly censored data, incorporates measured prognostic factors, and inference is conditional on the (possibly non-random) allocation of patients. Tests of fit and of model assumptions are proposed, and application to two therapeutic trials of gastroenterological disorders are presented. The model gave measures of the rate of, and variability in, improvement for patients under different treatments. A small simulation study suggested that the model is more powerful than considering the difference between initial and final scores, even when applied to data generated by a mechanism other than the random walk model assumed in the analysis. It thus provides a useful additional statistical method for evaluating clinical trials.

An optimal algorithm for reconstructing images from binary measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Feng; Lu, Yue M.; Sbaiz, Luciano; Vetterli, Martin

2010-01-01

We have studied a camera with a very large number of binary pixels referred to as the gigavision camera [1] or the gigapixel digital film camera [2, 3]. Potential advantages of this new camera design include improved dynamic range, thanks to its logarithmic sensor response curve, and reduced exposure time in low light conditions, due to its highly sensitive photon detection mechanism. We use maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) to reconstruct a high quality conventional image from the binary sensor measurements of the gigavision camera. We prove that when the threshold T is "1", the negative loglikelihood function is a convex function. Therefore, optimal solution can be achieved using convex optimization. Base on filter bank techniques, fast algorithms are given for computing the gradient and the multiplication of a vector and Hessian matrix of the negative log-likelihood function. We show that with a minor change, our algorithm also works for estimating conventional images from multiple binary images. Numerical experiments with synthetic 1-D signals and images verify the effectiveness and quality of the proposed algorithm. Experimental results also show that estimation performance can be improved by increasing the oversampling factor or the number of binary images.

Addressing Data Analysis Challenges in Gravitational Wave Searches Using the Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerathunga, Thilina Shihan

2017-08-01

Gravitational waves are a fundamental prediction of Einstein's General Theory of Relativity. The first experimental proof of their existence was provided by the Nobel Prize winning discovery by Taylor and Hulse of orbital decay in a binary pulsar system. The first detection of gravitational waves incident on earth from an astrophysical source was announced in 2016 by the LIGO Scientific Collaboration, launching the new era of gravitational wave (GW) astronomy. The signal detected was from the merger of two black holes, which is an example of sources called Compact Binary Coalescences (CBCs). Data analysis strategies used in the search for CBC signals are derivatives of the Maximum-Likelihood (ML) method. The ML method applied to data from a network of geographically distributed GW detectors--called fully coherent network analysis--is currently the best approach for estimating source location and GW polarization waveforms. However, in the case of CBCs, especially for lower mass systems (O(1M solar masses)) such as double neutron star binaries, fully coherent network analysis is computationally expensive. The ML method requires locating the global maximum of the likelihood function over a nine dimensional parameter space, where the computation of the likelihood at each point requires correlations involving O(104) to O(106) samples between the data and the corresponding candidate signal waveform template. Approximations, such as semi-coherent coincidence searches, are currently used to circumvent the computational barrier but incur a concomitant loss in sensitivity. We explored the effectiveness of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), a well-known algorithm in the field of swarm intelligence, in addressing the fully coherent network analysis problem. As an example, we used a four-detector network consisting of the two LIGO detectors at Hanford and Livingston, Virgo and Kagra, all having initial LIGO noise power spectral densities, and show that PSO can locate the global maximum with less than 240,000 likelihood evaluations for a component mass range of 1.0 to 10.0 solar masses at a realistic coherent network signal to noise ratio of 9.0. Our results show that PSO can successfully deliver a fully-coherent all-sky search with < (1/10 ) the number of likelihood evaluations needed for a grid-based search. Used as a follow-up step, the savings in the number of likelihood evaluations may also reduce latency in obtaining ML estimates of source parameters in semi-coherent searches.

Likelihood-based confidence intervals for estimating floods with given return periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Eduardo Sávio P. R.; Clarke, Robin T.

1993-06-01

This paper discusses aspects of the calculation of likelihood-based confidence intervals for T-year floods, with particular reference to (1) the two-parameter gamma distribution; (2) the Gumbel distribution; (3) the two-parameter log-normal distribution, and other distributions related to the normal by Box-Cox transformations. Calculation of the confidence limits is straightforward using the Nelder-Mead algorithm with a constraint incorporated, although care is necessary to ensure convergence either of the Nelder-Mead algorithm, or of the Newton-Raphson calculation of maximum-likelihood estimates. Methods are illustrated using records from 18 gauging stations in the basin of the River Itajai-Acu, State of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A small and restricted simulation compared likelihood-based confidence limits with those given by use of the central limit theorem; for the same confidence probability, the confidence limits of the simulation were wider than those of the central limit theorem, which failed more frequently to contain the true quantile being estimated. The paper discusses possible applications of likelihood-based confidence intervals in other areas of hydrological analysis.

Adaptive Quadrature for Item Response Models. Research Report. ETS RR-06-29

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haberman, Shelby J.

2006-01-01

Adaptive quadrature is applied to marginal maximum likelihood estimation for item response models with normal ability distributions. Even in one dimension, significant gains in speed and accuracy of computation may be achieved.

The Relation between Factor Score Estimates, Image Scores, and Principal Component Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Velicer, Wayne F.

1976-01-01

Investigates the relation between factor score estimates, principal component scores, and image scores. The three methods compared are maximum likelihood factor analysis, principal component analysis, and a variant of rescaled image analysis. (RC)

Spatial Prediction and Optimized Sampling Design for Sodium Concentration in Groundwater

PubMed Central

Shabbir, Javid; M. AbdEl-Salam, Nasser; Hussain, Tajammal

2016-01-01

Sodium is an integral part of water, and its excessive amount in drinking water causes high blood pressure and hypertension. In the present paper, spatial distribution of sodium concentration in drinking water is modeled and optimized sampling designs for selecting sampling locations is calculated for three divisions in Punjab, Pakistan. Universal kriging and Bayesian universal kriging are used to predict the sodium concentrations. Spatial simulated annealing is used to generate optimized sampling designs. Different estimation methods (i.e., maximum likelihood, restricted maximum likelihood, ordinary least squares, and weighted least squares) are used to estimate the parameters of the variogram model (i.e, exponential, Gaussian, spherical and cubic). It is concluded that Bayesian universal kriging fits better than universal kriging. It is also observed that the universal kriging predictor provides minimum mean universal kriging variance for both adding and deleting locations during sampling design. PMID:27683016

Spectral identification of a 90Sr source in the presence of masking nuclides using Maximum-Likelihood deconvolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuer, Marcus J.

2013-11-01

A technique for the spectral identification of strontium-90 is shown, utilising a Maximum-Likelihood deconvolution. Different deconvolution approaches are discussed and summarised. Based on the intensity distribution of the beta emission and Geant4 simulations, a combined response matrix is derived, tailored to the β- detection process in sodium iodide detectors. It includes scattering effects and attenuation by applying a base material decomposition extracted from Geant4 simulations with a CAD model for a realistic detector system. Inversion results of measurements show the agreement between deconvolution and reconstruction. A detailed investigation with additional masking sources like 40K, 226Ra and 131I shows that a contamination of strontium can be found in the presence of these nuisance sources. Identification algorithms for strontium are presented based on the derived technique. For the implementation of blind identification, an exemplary masking ratio is calculated.

MIXOR: a computer program for mixed-effects ordinal regression analysis.

PubMed

Hedeker, D; Gibbons, R D

1996-03-01

MIXOR provides maximum marginal likelihood estimates for mixed-effects ordinal probit, logistic, and complementary log-log regression models. These models can be used for analysis of dichotomous and ordinal outcomes from either a clustered or longitudinal design. For clustered data, the mixed-effects model assumes that data within clusters are dependent. The degree of dependency is jointly estimated with the usual model parameters, thus adjusting for dependence resulting from clustering of the data. Similarly, for longitudinal data, the mixed-effects approach can allow for individual-varying intercepts and slopes across time, and can estimate the degree to which these time-related effects vary in the population of individuals. MIXOR uses marginal maximum likelihood estimation, utilizing a Fisher-scoring solution. For the scoring solution, the Cholesky factor of the random-effects variance-covariance matrix is estimated, along with the effects of model covariates. Examples illustrating usage and features of MIXOR are provided.

Modifying high-order aeroelastic math model of a jet transport using maximum likelihood estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anissipour, Amir A.; Benson, Russell A.

1989-01-01

The design of control laws to damp flexible structural modes requires accurate math models. Unlike the design of control laws for rigid body motion (e.g., where robust control is used to compensate for modeling inaccuracies), structural mode damping usually employs narrow band notch filters. In order to obtain the required accuracy in the math model, maximum likelihood estimation technique is employed to improve the accuracy of the math model using flight data. Presented here are all phases of this methodology: (1) pre-flight analysis (i.e., optimal input signal design for flight test, sensor location determination, model reduction technique, etc.), (2) data collection and preprocessing, and (3) post-flight analysis (i.e., estimation technique and model verification). In addition, a discussion is presented of the software tools used and the need for future study in this field.

Maximum Marginal Likelihood Estimation of a Monotonic Polynomial Generalized Partial Credit Model with Applications to Multiple Group Analysis.

PubMed

Falk, Carl F; Cai, Li

2016-06-01

We present a semi-parametric approach to estimating item response functions (IRF) useful when the true IRF does not strictly follow commonly used functions. Our approach replaces the linear predictor of the generalized partial credit model with a monotonic polynomial. The model includes the regular generalized partial credit model at the lowest order polynomial. Our approach extends Liang's (A semi-parametric approach to estimate IRFs, Unpublished doctoral dissertation, 2007) method for dichotomous item responses to the case of polytomous data. Furthermore, item parameter estimation is implemented with maximum marginal likelihood using the Bock-Aitkin EM algorithm, thereby facilitating multiple group analyses useful in operational settings. Our approach is demonstrated on both educational and psychological data. We present simulation results comparing our approach to more standard IRF estimation approaches and other non-parametric and semi-parametric alternatives.

Maximum likelihood estimation for semiparametric transformation models with interval-censored data

PubMed Central

Mao, Lu; Lin, D. Y.

2016-01-01

Abstract Interval censoring arises frequently in clinical, epidemiological, financial and sociological studies, where the event or failure of interest is known only to occur within an interval induced by periodic monitoring. We formulate the effects of potentially time-dependent covariates on the interval-censored failure time through a broad class of semiparametric transformation models that encompasses proportional hazards and proportional odds models. We consider nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for this class of models with an arbitrary number of monitoring times for each subject. We devise an EM-type algorithm that converges stably, even in the presence of time-dependent covariates, and show that the estimators for the regression parameters are consistent, asymptotically normal, and asymptotically efficient with an easily estimated covariance matrix. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of our procedures through simulation studies and application to an HIV/AIDS study conducted in Thailand. PMID:27279656

Best practices for missing data management in counseling psychology.

PubMed

Schlomer, Gabriel L; Bauman, Sheri; Card, Noel A

2010-01-01

This article urges counseling psychology researchers to recognize and report how missing data are handled, because consumers of research cannot accurately interpret findings without knowing the amount and pattern of missing data or the strategies that were used to handle those data. Patterns of missing data are reviewed, and some of the common strategies for dealing with them are described. The authors provide an illustration in which data were simulated and evaluate 3 methods of handling missing data: mean substitution, multiple imputation, and full information maximum likelihood. Results suggest that mean substitution is a poor method for handling missing data, whereas both multiple imputation and full information maximum likelihood are recommended alternatives to this approach. The authors suggest that researchers fully consider and report the amount and pattern of missing data and the strategy for handling those data in counseling psychology research and that editors advise researchers of this expectation.

A 3D approximate maximum likelihood solver for localization of fish implanted with acoustic transmitters

DOE PAGES

Li, Xinya; Deng, Z. Daniel; USA, Richland Washington; ...

2014-11-27

Better understanding of fish behavior is vital for recovery of many endangered species including salmon. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed to observe the out-migratory behavior of juvenile salmonids tagged by surgical implantation of acoustic micro-transmitters and to estimate the survival when passing through dams on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. A robust three-dimensional solver was needed to accurately and efficiently estimate the time sequence of locations of fish tagged with JSATS acoustic transmitters, to describe in sufficient detail the information needed to assess the function of dam-passage design alternatives. An approximate maximum likelihood solver was developedmore » using measurements of time difference of arrival from all hydrophones in receiving arrays on which a transmission was detected. Field experiments demonstrated that the developed solver performed significantly better in tracking efficiency and accuracy than other solvers described in the literature.« less

Numerical Experimentation with Maximum Likelihood Identification in Static Distributed Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scheid, R. E., Jr.; Rodriguez, G.

1985-01-01

Many important issues in the control of large space structures are intimately related to the fundamental problem of parameter identification. One might also ask how well this identification process can be carried out in the presence of noisy data since no sensor system is perfect. With these considerations in mind the algorithms herein are designed to treat both the case of uncertainties in the modeling and uncertainties in the data. The analytical aspects of maximum likelihood identification are considered in some detail in another paper. The questions relevant to the implementation of these schemes are dealt with, particularly as they apply to models of large space structures. The emphasis is on the influence of the infinite dimensional character of the problem on finite dimensional implementations of the algorithms. Those areas of current and future analysis are highlighted which indicate the interplay between error analysis and possible truncations of the state and parameter spaces.

A 3D approximate maximum likelihood solver for localization of fish implanted with acoustic transmitters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xinya; Deng, Z. Daniel; Sun, Yannan; Martinez, Jayson J.; Fu, Tao; McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Carlson, Thomas J.

2014-11-01

Better understanding of fish behavior is vital for recovery of many endangered species including salmon. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed to observe the out-migratory behavior of juvenile salmonids tagged by surgical implantation of acoustic micro-transmitters and to estimate the survival when passing through dams on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. A robust three-dimensional solver was needed to accurately and efficiently estimate the time sequence of locations of fish tagged with JSATS acoustic transmitters, to describe in sufficient detail the information needed to assess the function of dam-passage design alternatives. An approximate maximum likelihood solver was developed using measurements of time difference of arrival from all hydrophones in receiving arrays on which a transmission was detected. Field experiments demonstrated that the developed solver performed significantly better in tracking efficiency and accuracy than other solvers described in the literature.

Optimization of a Nucleic Acids united-RESidue 2-Point model (NARES-2P) with a maximum-likelihood approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yi; Liwo, Adam; Scheraga, Harold A.

2015-12-01

Coarse-grained models are useful tools to investigate the structural and thermodynamic properties of biomolecules. They are obtained by merging several atoms into one interaction site. Such simplified models try to capture as much as possible information of the original biomolecular system in all-atom representation but the resulting parameters of these coarse-grained force fields still need further optimization. In this paper, a force field optimization method, which is based on maximum-likelihood fitting of the simulated to the experimental conformational ensembles and least-squares fitting of the simulated to the experimental heat-capacity curves, is applied to optimize the Nucleic Acid united-RESidue 2-point (NARES-2P) model for coarse-grained simulations of nucleic acids recently developed in our laboratory. The optimized NARES-2P force field reproduces the structural and thermodynamic data of small DNA molecules much better than the original force field.

Estimation of descriptive statistics for multiply censored water quality data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Helsel, Dennis R.; Cohn, Timothy A.

1988-01-01

This paper extends the work of Gilliom and Helsel (1986) on procedures for estimating descriptive statistics of water quality data that contain “less than” observations. Previously, procedures were evaluated when only one detection limit was present. Here we investigate the performance of estimators for data that have multiple detection limits. Probability plotting and maximum likelihood methods perform substantially better than simple substitution procedures now commonly in use. Therefore simple substitution procedures (e.g., substitution of the detection limit) should be avoided. Probability plotting methods are more robust than maximum likelihood methods to misspecification of the parent distribution and their use should be encouraged in the typical situation where the parent distribution is unknown. When utilized correctly, less than values frequently contain nearly as much information for estimating population moments and quantiles as would the same observations had the detection limit been below them.

A gateway for phylogenetic analysis powered by grid computing featuring GARLI 2.0.

PubMed

Bazinet, Adam L; Zwickl, Derrick J; Cummings, Michael P

2014-09-01

We introduce molecularevolution.org, a publicly available gateway for high-throughput, maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis powered by grid computing. The gateway features a garli 2.0 web service that enables a user to quickly and easily submit thousands of maximum likelihood tree searches or bootstrap searches that are executed in parallel on distributed computing resources. The garli web service allows one to easily specify partitioned substitution models using a graphical interface, and it performs sophisticated post-processing of phylogenetic results. Although the garli web service has been used by the research community for over three years, here we formally announce the availability of the service, describe its capabilities, highlight new features and recent improvements, and provide details about how the grid system efficiently delivers high-quality phylogenetic results. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Efficient method for computing the maximum-likelihood quantum state from measurements with additive Gaussian noise.

PubMed

Smolin, John A; Gambetta, Jay M; Smith, Graeme

2012-02-17

We provide an efficient method for computing the maximum-likelihood mixed quantum state (with density matrix ρ) given a set of measurement outcomes in a complete orthonormal operator basis subject to Gaussian noise. Our method works by first changing basis yielding a candidate density matrix μ which may have nonphysical (negative) eigenvalues, and then finding the nearest physical state under the 2-norm. Our algorithm takes at worst O(d(4)) for the basis change plus O(d(3)) for finding ρ where d is the dimension of the quantum state. In the special case where the measurement basis is strings of Pauli operators, the basis change takes only O(d(3)) as well. The workhorse of the algorithm is a new linear-time method for finding the closest probability distribution (in Euclidean distance) to a set of real numbers summing to one.

A 3D approximate maximum likelihood solver for localization of fish implanted with acoustic transmitters

PubMed Central

Li, Xinya; Deng, Z. Daniel; Sun, Yannan; Martinez, Jayson J.; Fu, Tao; McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Carlson, Thomas J.

2014-01-01

Better understanding of fish behavior is vital for recovery of many endangered species including salmon. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed to observe the out-migratory behavior of juvenile salmonids tagged by surgical implantation of acoustic micro-transmitters and to estimate the survival when passing through dams on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. A robust three-dimensional solver was needed to accurately and efficiently estimate the time sequence of locations of fish tagged with JSATS acoustic transmitters, to describe in sufficient detail the information needed to assess the function of dam-passage design alternatives. An approximate maximum likelihood solver was developed using measurements of time difference of arrival from all hydrophones in receiving arrays on which a transmission was detected. Field experiments demonstrated that the developed solver performed significantly better in tracking efficiency and accuracy than other solvers described in the literature. PMID:25427517

A 3D approximate maximum likelihood solver for localization of fish implanted with acoustic transmitters.

PubMed

Li, Xinya; Deng, Z Daniel; Sun, Yannan; Martinez, Jayson J; Fu, Tao; McMichael, Geoffrey A; Carlson, Thomas J

2014-11-27

Better understanding of fish behavior is vital for recovery of many endangered species including salmon. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed to observe the out-migratory behavior of juvenile salmonids tagged by surgical implantation of acoustic micro-transmitters and to estimate the survival when passing through dams on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. A robust three-dimensional solver was needed to accurately and efficiently estimate the time sequence of locations of fish tagged with JSATS acoustic transmitters, to describe in sufficient detail the information needed to assess the function of dam-passage design alternatives. An approximate maximum likelihood solver was developed using measurements of time difference of arrival from all hydrophones in receiving arrays on which a transmission was detected. Field experiments demonstrated that the developed solver performed significantly better in tracking efficiency and accuracy than other solvers described in the literature.

Aircraft parameter estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iliff, Kenneth W.

1987-01-01

The aircraft parameter estimation problem is used to illustrate the utility of parameter estimation, which applies to many engineering and scientific fields. Maximum likelihood estimation has been used to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data for many years. This paper presents some of the basic concepts of aircraft parameter estimation and briefly surveys the literature in the field. The maximum likelihood estimator is discussed, and the basic concepts of minimization and estimation are examined for a simple simulated aircraft example. The cost functions that are to be minimized during estimation are defined and discussed. Graphic representations of the cost functions are given to illustrate the minimization process. Finally, the basic concepts are generalized, and estimation from flight data is discussed. Some of the major conclusions for the simulated example are also developed for the analysis of flight data from the F-14, highly maneuverable aircraft technology (HiMAT), and space shuttle vehicles.

A new maximum-likelihood change estimator for two-pass SAR coherent change detection

DOE PAGES

Wahl, Daniel E.; Yocky, David A.; Jakowatz, Jr., Charles V.; ...

2016-01-11

In previous research, two-pass repeat-geometry synthetic aperture radar (SAR) coherent change detection (CCD) predominantly utilized the sample degree of coherence as a measure of the temporal change occurring between two complex-valued image collects. Previous coherence-based CCD approaches tend to show temporal change when there is none in areas of the image that have a low clutter-to-noise power ratio. Instead of employing the sample coherence magnitude as a change metric, in this paper, we derive a new maximum-likelihood (ML) temporal change estimate—the complex reflectance change detection (CRCD) metric to be used for SAR coherent temporal change detection. The new CRCD estimatormore » is a surprisingly simple expression, easy to implement, and optimal in the ML sense. As a result, this new estimate produces improved results in the coherent pair collects that we have tested.« less

Modeling and Maximum Likelihood Fitting of Gamma-Ray and Radio Light Curves of Millisecond Pulsars Detected with Fermi

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, T. J.; Harding, A. K.; Venter, C.

2012-01-01

Pulsed gamma rays have been detected with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) from more than 20 millisecond pulsars (MSPs), some of which were discovered in radio observations of bright, unassociated LAT sources. We have fit the radio and gamma-ray light curves of 19 LAT-detected MSPs in the context of geometric, outermagnetospheric emission models assuming the retarded vacuum dipole magnetic field using a Markov chain Monte Carlo maximum likelihood technique. We find that, in many cases, the models are able to reproduce the observed light curves well and provide constraints on the viewing geometries that are in agreement with those from radio polarization measurements. Additionally, for some MSPs we constrain the altitudes of both the gamma-ray and radio emission regions. The best-fit magnetic inclination angles are found to cover a broader range than those of non-recycled gamma-ray pulsars.

A Comparison of Local Variance, Fractal Dimension, and Moran's I as Aids to Multispectral Image Classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emerson, Charles W.; Sig-NganLam, Nina; Quattrochi, Dale A.

2004-01-01

The accuracy of traditional multispectral maximum-likelihood image classification is limited by the skewed statistical distributions of reflectances from the complex heterogenous mixture of land cover types in urban areas. This work examines the utility of local variance, fractal dimension and Moran's I index of spatial autocorrelation in segmenting multispectral satellite imagery. Tools available in the Image Characterization and Modeling System (ICAMS) were used to analyze Landsat 7 imagery of Atlanta, Georgia. Although segmentation of panchromatic images is possible using indicators of spatial complexity, different land covers often yield similar values of these indices. Better results are obtained when a surface of local fractal dimension or spatial autocorrelation is combined as an additional layer in a supervised maximum-likelihood multispectral classification. The addition of fractal dimension measures is particularly effective at resolving land cover classes within urbanized areas, as compared to per-pixel spectral classification techniques.

A 3D approximate maximum likelihood solver for localization of fish implanted with acoustic transmitters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xinya; Deng, Z. Daniel; USA, Richland Washington

Better understanding of fish behavior is vital for recovery of many endangered species including salmon. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed to observe the out-migratory behavior of juvenile salmonids tagged by surgical implantation of acoustic micro-transmitters and to estimate the survival when passing through dams on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. A robust three-dimensional solver was needed to accurately and efficiently estimate the time sequence of locations of fish tagged with JSATS acoustic transmitters, to describe in sufficient detail the information needed to assess the function of dam-passage design alternatives. An approximate maximum likelihood solver was developedmore » using measurements of time difference of arrival from all hydrophones in receiving arrays on which a transmission was detected. Field experiments demonstrated that the developed solver performed significantly better in tracking efficiency and accuracy than other solvers described in the literature.« less

Signal Recovery and System Calibration from Multiple Compressive Poisson Measurements

DOE PAGES

Wang, Liming; Huang, Jiaji; Yuan, Xin; ...

2015-09-17

The measurement matrix employed in compressive sensing typically cannot be known precisely a priori and must be estimated via calibration. One may take multiple compressive measurements, from which the measurement matrix and underlying signals may be estimated jointly. This is of interest as well when the measurement matrix may change as a function of the details of what is measured. This problem has been considered recently for Gaussian measurement noise, and here we develop this idea with application to Poisson systems. A collaborative maximum likelihood algorithm and alternating proximal gradient algorithm are proposed, and associated theoretical performance guarantees are establishedmore » based on newly derived concentration-of-measure results. A Bayesian model is then introduced, to improve flexibility and generality. Connections between the maximum likelihood methods and the Bayesian model are developed, and example results are presented for a real compressive X-ray imaging system.« less

Maximum Likelihood Reconstruction for Magnetic Resonance Fingerprinting

PubMed Central

Zhao, Bo; Setsompop, Kawin; Ye, Huihui; Cauley, Stephen; Wald, Lawrence L.

2017-01-01

This paper introduces a statistical estimation framework for magnetic resonance (MR) fingerprinting, a recently proposed quantitative imaging paradigm. Within this framework, we present a maximum likelihood (ML) formalism to estimate multiple parameter maps directly from highly undersampled, noisy k-space data. A novel algorithm, based on variable splitting, the alternating direction method of multipliers, and the variable projection method, is developed to solve the resulting optimization problem. Representative results from both simulations and in vivo experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach yields significantly improved accuracy in parameter estimation, compared to the conventional MR fingerprinting reconstruction. Moreover, the proposed framework provides new theoretical insights into the conventional approach. We show analytically that the conventional approach is an approximation to the ML reconstruction; more precisely, it is exactly equivalent to the first iteration of the proposed algorithm for the ML reconstruction, provided that a gridding reconstruction is used as an initialization. PMID:26915119

Maximum Likelihood Reconstruction for Magnetic Resonance Fingerprinting.

PubMed

Zhao, Bo; Setsompop, Kawin; Ye, Huihui; Cauley, Stephen F; Wald, Lawrence L

2016-08-01

This paper introduces a statistical estimation framework for magnetic resonance (MR) fingerprinting, a recently proposed quantitative imaging paradigm. Within this framework, we present a maximum likelihood (ML) formalism to estimate multiple MR tissue parameter maps directly from highly undersampled, noisy k-space data. A novel algorithm, based on variable splitting, the alternating direction method of multipliers, and the variable projection method, is developed to solve the resulting optimization problem. Representative results from both simulations and in vivo experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach yields significantly improved accuracy in parameter estimation, compared to the conventional MR fingerprinting reconstruction. Moreover, the proposed framework provides new theoretical insights into the conventional approach. We show analytically that the conventional approach is an approximation to the ML reconstruction; more precisely, it is exactly equivalent to the first iteration of the proposed algorithm for the ML reconstruction, provided that a gridding reconstruction is used as an initialization.

PROBABILISTIC CROSS-IDENTIFICATION IN CROWDED FIELDS AS AN ASSIGNMENT PROBLEM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Budavári, Tamás; Basu, Amitabh, E-mail: budavari@jhu.edu, E-mail: basu.amitabh@jhu.edu

2016-10-01

One of the outstanding challenges of cross-identification is multiplicity: detections in crowded regions of the sky are often linked to more than one candidate associations of similar likelihoods. We map the resulting maximum likelihood partitioning to the fundamental assignment problem of discrete mathematics and efficiently solve the two-way catalog-level matching in the realm of combinatorial optimization using the so-called Hungarian algorithm. We introduce the method, demonstrate its performance in a mock universe where the true associations are known, and discuss the applicability of the new procedure to large surveys.

Probabilistic Cross-identification in Crowded Fields as an Assignment Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budavári, Tamás; Basu, Amitabh

2016-10-01

One of the outstanding challenges of cross-identification is multiplicity: detections in crowded regions of the sky are often linked to more than one candidate associations of similar likelihoods. We map the resulting maximum likelihood partitioning to the fundamental assignment problem of discrete mathematics and efficiently solve the two-way catalog-level matching in the realm of combinatorial optimization using the so-called Hungarian algorithm. We introduce the method, demonstrate its performance in a mock universe where the true associations are known, and discuss the applicability of the new procedure to large surveys.

Fast automated analysis of strong gravitational lenses with convolutional neural networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hezaveh, Yashar D.; Levasseur, Laurence Perreault; Marshall, Philip J.

Quantifying image distortions caused by strong gravitational lensing—the formation of multiple images of distant sources due to the deflection of their light by the gravity of intervening structures—and estimating the corresponding matter distribution of these structures (the ‘gravitational lens’) has primarily been performed using maximum likelihood modelling of observations. Our procedure is typically time- and resource-consuming, requiring sophisticated lensing codes, several data preparation steps, and finding the maximum likelihood model parameters in a computationally expensive process with downhill optimizers. Accurate analysis of a single gravitational lens can take up to a few weeks and requires expert knowledge of the physicalmore » processes and methods involved. Tens of thousands of new lenses are expected to be discovered with the upcoming generation of ground and space surveys. We report the use of deep convolutional neural networks to estimate lensing parameters in an extremely fast and automated way, circumventing the difficulties that are faced by maximum likelihood methods. We also show that the removal of lens light can be made fast and automated using independent component analysis of multi-filter imaging data. Our networks can recover the parameters of the ‘singular isothermal ellipsoid’ density profile, which is commonly used to model strong lensing systems, with an accuracy comparable to the uncertainties of sophisticated models but about ten million times faster: 100 systems in approximately one second on a single graphics processing unit. These networks can provide a way for non-experts to obtain estimates of lensing parameters for large samples of data.« less

ILP-based maximum likelihood genome scaffolding

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Interest in de novo genome assembly has been renewed in the past decade due to rapid advances in high-throughput sequencing (HTS) technologies which generate relatively short reads resulting in highly fragmented assemblies consisting of contigs. Additional long-range linkage information is typically used to orient, order, and link contigs into larger structures referred to as scaffolds. Due to library preparation artifacts and erroneous mapping of reads originating from repeats, scaffolding remains a challenging problem. In this paper, we provide a scalable scaffolding algorithm (SILP2) employing a maximum likelihood model capturing read mapping uncertainty and/or non-uniformity of contig coverage which is solved using integer linear programming. A Non-Serial Dynamic Programming (NSDP) paradigm is applied to render our algorithm useful in the processing of larger mammalian genomes. To compare scaffolding tools, we employ novel quantitative metrics in addition to the extant metrics in the field. We have also expanded the set of experiments to include scaffolding of low-complexity metagenomic samples. Results SILP2 achieves better scalability throughg a more efficient NSDP algorithm than previous release of SILP. The results show that SILP2 compares favorably to previous methods OPERA and MIP in both scalability and accuracy for scaffolding single genomes of up to human size, and significantly outperforms them on scaffolding low-complexity metagenomic samples. Conclusions Equipped with NSDP, SILP2 is able to scaffold large mammalian genomes, resulting in the longest and most accurate scaffolds. The ILP formulation for the maximum likelihood model is shown to be flexible enough to handle metagenomic samples. PMID:25253180

Fast automated analysis of strong gravitational lenses with convolutional neural networks

DOE PAGES

Hezaveh, Yashar D.; Levasseur, Laurence Perreault; Marshall, Philip J.

2017-08-30

Quantifying image distortions caused by strong gravitational lensing—the formation of multiple images of distant sources due to the deflection of their light by the gravity of intervening structures—and estimating the corresponding matter distribution of these structures (the ‘gravitational lens’) has primarily been performed using maximum likelihood modelling of observations. Our procedure is typically time- and resource-consuming, requiring sophisticated lensing codes, several data preparation steps, and finding the maximum likelihood model parameters in a computationally expensive process with downhill optimizers. Accurate analysis of a single gravitational lens can take up to a few weeks and requires expert knowledge of the physicalmore » processes and methods involved. Tens of thousands of new lenses are expected to be discovered with the upcoming generation of ground and space surveys. We report the use of deep convolutional neural networks to estimate lensing parameters in an extremely fast and automated way, circumventing the difficulties that are faced by maximum likelihood methods. We also show that the removal of lens light can be made fast and automated using independent component analysis of multi-filter imaging data. Our networks can recover the parameters of the ‘singular isothermal ellipsoid’ density profile, which is commonly used to model strong lensing systems, with an accuracy comparable to the uncertainties of sophisticated models but about ten million times faster: 100 systems in approximately one second on a single graphics processing unit. These networks can provide a way for non-experts to obtain estimates of lensing parameters for large samples of data.« less

Fast automated analysis of strong gravitational lenses with convolutional neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hezaveh, Yashar D.; Levasseur, Laurence Perreault; Marshall, Philip J.

2017-08-01

Quantifying image distortions caused by strong gravitational lensing—the formation of multiple images of distant sources due to the deflection of their light by the gravity of intervening structures—and estimating the corresponding matter distribution of these structures (the ‘gravitational lens’) has primarily been performed using maximum likelihood modelling of observations. This procedure is typically time- and resource-consuming, requiring sophisticated lensing codes, several data preparation steps, and finding the maximum likelihood model parameters in a computationally expensive process with downhill optimizers. Accurate analysis of a single gravitational lens can take up to a few weeks and requires expert knowledge of the physical processes and methods involved. Tens of thousands of new lenses are expected to be discovered with the upcoming generation of ground and space surveys. Here we report the use of deep convolutional neural networks to estimate lensing parameters in an extremely fast and automated way, circumventing the difficulties that are faced by maximum likelihood methods. We also show that the removal of lens light can be made fast and automated using independent component analysis of multi-filter imaging data. Our networks can recover the parameters of the ‘singular isothermal ellipsoid’ density profile, which is commonly used to model strong lensing systems, with an accuracy comparable to the uncertainties of sophisticated models but about ten million times faster: 100 systems in approximately one second on a single graphics processing unit. These networks can provide a way for non-experts to obtain estimates of lensing parameters for large samples of data.

Usual Physical Activity and Hip Fracture in Older Men: An Application of Semiparametric Methods to Observational Data

PubMed Central

Mackey, Dawn C.; Hubbard, Alan E.; Cawthon, Peggy M.; Cauley, Jane A.; Cummings, Steven R.; Tager, Ira B.

2011-01-01

Few studies have examined the relation between usual physical activity level and rate of hip fracture in older men or applied semiparametric methods from the causal inference literature that estimate associations without assuming a particular parametric model. Using the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly, the authors measured usual physical activity level at baseline (2000–2002) in 5,682 US men ≥65 years of age who were enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study. Physical activity levels were classified as low (bottom quartile of Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly score), moderate (middle quartiles), or high (top quartile). Hip fractures were confirmed by central review. Marginal associations between physical activity and hip fracture were estimated with 3 estimation methods: inverse probability-of-treatment weighting, G-computation, and doubly robust targeted maximum likelihood estimation. During 6.5 years of follow-up, 95 men (1.7%) experienced a hip fracture. The unadjusted risk of hip fracture was lower in men with a high physical activity level versus those with a low physical activity level (relative risk = 0.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.28, 0.92). In semiparametric analyses that controlled confounding, hip fracture risk was not lower with moderate (e.g., targeted maximum likelihood estimation relative risk = 0.92, 95% confidence interval: 0.62, 1.44) or high (e.g., targeted maximum likelihood estimation relative risk = 0.88, 95% confidence interval: 0.53, 2.03) physical activity relative to low. This study does not support a protective effect of usual physical activity on hip fracture in older men. PMID:21303805

Stable indications of relic gravitational waves in Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe data and forecasts for the Planck mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, W.; Baskaran, D.; Grishchuk, L. P.

2009-10-01

The relic gravitational waves are the cleanest probe of the violent times in the very early history of the Universe. They are expected to leave signatures in the observed cosmic microwave background anisotropies. We significantly improved our previous analysis [W. Zhao, D. Baskaran, and L. P. Grishchuk, Phys. Rev. DPRVDAQ1550-7998 79, 023002 (2009)10.1103/PhysRevD.79.023002] of the 5-year WMAP TT and TE data at lower multipoles ℓ. This more general analysis returned essentially the same maximum likelihood result (unfortunately, surrounded by large remaining uncertainties): The relic gravitational waves are present and they are responsible for approximately 20% of the temperature quadrupole. We identify and discuss the reasons by which the contribution of gravitational waves can be overlooked in a data analysis. One of the reasons is a misleading reliance on data from very high multipoles ℓ and another a too narrow understanding of the problem as the search for B modes of polarization, rather than the detection of relic gravitational waves with the help of all correlation functions. Our analysis of WMAP5 data has led to the identification of a whole family of models characterized by relatively high values of the likelihood function. Using the Fisher matrix formalism we formulated forecasts for Planck mission in the context of this family of models. We explore in detail various “optimistic,” “pessimistic,” and “dream case” scenarios. We show that in some circumstances the B-mode detection may be very inconclusive, at the level of signal-to-noise ratio S/N=1.75, whereas a smarter data analysis can reveal the same gravitational wave signal at S/N=6.48. The final result is encouraging. Even under unfavorable conditions in terms of instrumental noises and foregrounds, the relic gravitational waves, if they are characterized by the maximum likelihood parameters that we found from WMAP5 data, will be detected by Planck at the level S/N=3.65.

Organizational Justice and Men's Likelihood to Sexually Harass: The Moderating Role of Sexism and Personality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krings, Franciska; Facchin, Stephanie

2009-01-01

This study demonstrated relations between men's perceptions of organizational justice and increased sexual harassment proclivities. Respondents reported higher likelihood to sexually harass under conditions of low interactional justice, suggesting that sexual harassment likelihood may increase as a response to perceived injustice. Moreover, the…

A study on reproductive performance and related factors of zebu cows in pastoral herds in a semi-arid area of Tanzania.

PubMed

Kanuya, N L; Matiko, M K; Kessy, B M; Mgongo, F O; Ropstad, E; Reksen, O

2006-06-01

A prospective longitudinal study was carried out from September 2001 to June 2004 in three adjacent villages in a semi-arid area of Tanzania. The objectives of this study were to measure the intervals between calving and either resumption of cyclical activity or confirmation of pregnancy, to estimate calving intervals, and to investigate the effect of factors assumed to be related to postpartum reproductive performance. A total of 275 lactation periods from 177 Tanzanian Shorthorn Zebu cows managed in a traditional pastoral system in 46 households were initially included. Animals were initially screened for brucelosis and thereafter examined by palpation per rectum at 2-week intervals. Body condition score (scale 1 to 5) was assessed and girth measurement (cm) taken. Occurrence of other reproductive events such as calving, abortion, death of calf, culling and reason for culling were recorded. In a subset of 98 lactation periods from 91 cows milk samples for progesterone (P4) determination were collected twice per week from day 7 after calving to the time of confirmed pregnancy or until milk production ceased before pregnancy. The data were analysed both univariately and in multivariable Cox proportional hazard (frailty) models. The mean (+/-S.E.M.) calving interval was 500+/-13.6 days. Positive reactors in the brucellosis test were 15.6% of the tested animals. Milk P4 analysis showed the rate of abortion/late embryo loss to be 14.3%. Calf mortality rates varied between 14.6 and 17.4%. A positive relationship was found between the outcome variables likelihood of cyclical activity and likelihood of pregnancy in the Cox model, and the explanatory variables: parity and body condition score (BCS) at calving. A negative relationship was found between the outcome variables, and the explanatory variables: maximum BCS loss and calf survival/mortality. Calving in the rainy season was associated with an increased likelihood of pregnancy.

NON-REGULAR MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION

EPA Science Inventory

Even though a body of data on the environmental occurrence of medicinal, government-approved ("ethical") pharmaceuticals has been growing over the last two decades (the subject of this book), nearly nothing is known about the disposition of illicit (illegal) drugs in th...

Application of the Bootstrap Methods in Factor Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ichikawa, Masanori; Konishi, Sadanori

1995-01-01

A Monte Carlo experiment was conducted to investigate the performance of bootstrap methods in normal theory maximum likelihood factor analysis when the distributional assumption was satisfied or unsatisfied. Problems arising with the use of bootstrap methods are highlighted. (SLD)

40 CFR 98.448 - Geologic sequestration monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... than 1 year. (2) Identification of potential surface leakage pathways for CO2 in the maximum monitoring area and the likelihood, magnitude, and timing, of surface leakage of CO2 through these pathways. (3) A...

40 CFR 98.448 - Geologic sequestration monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... than 1 year. (2) Identification of potential surface leakage pathways for CO2 in the maximum monitoring area and the likelihood, magnitude, and timing, of surface leakage of CO2 through these pathways. (3) A...

A Review of System Identification Methods Applied to Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, V.

1983-01-01

Airplane identification, equation error method, maximum likelihood method, parameter estimation in frequency domain, extended Kalman filter, aircraft equations of motion, aerodynamic model equations, criteria for the selection of a parsimonious model, and online aircraft identification are addressed.

Joint reconstruction of activity and attenuation in Time-of-Flight PET: A Quantitative Analysis.

PubMed

Rezaei, Ahmadreza; Deroose, Christophe M; Vahle, Thomas; Boada, Fernando; Nuyts, Johan

2018-03-01

Joint activity and attenuation reconstruction methods from time of flight (TOF) positron emission tomography (PET) data provide an effective solution to attenuation correction when no (or incomplete/inaccurate) information on the attenuation is available. One of the main barriers limiting their use in clinical practice is the lack of validation of these methods on a relatively large patient database. In this contribution, we aim at validating the activity reconstructions of the maximum likelihood activity reconstruction and attenuation registration (MLRR) algorithm on a whole-body patient data set. Furthermore, a partial validation (since the scale problem of the algorithm is avoided for now) of the maximum likelihood activity and attenuation reconstruction (MLAA) algorithm is also provided. We present a quantitative comparison of the joint reconstructions to the current clinical gold-standard maximum likelihood expectation maximization (MLEM) reconstruction with CT-based attenuation correction. Methods: The whole-body TOF-PET emission data of each patient data set is processed as a whole to reconstruct an activity volume covering all the acquired bed positions, which helps to reduce the problem of a scale per bed position in MLAA to a global scale for the entire activity volume. Three reconstruction algorithms are used: MLEM, MLRR and MLAA. A maximum likelihood (ML) scaling of the single scatter simulation (SSS) estimate to the emission data is used for scatter correction. The reconstruction results are then analyzed in different regions of interest. Results: The joint reconstructions of the whole-body patient data set provide better quantification in case of PET and CT misalignments caused by patient and organ motion. Our quantitative analysis shows a difference of -4.2% (±2.3%) and -7.5% (±4.6%) between the joint reconstructions of MLRR and MLAA compared to MLEM, averaged over all regions of interest, respectively. Conclusion: Joint activity and attenuation estimation methods provide a useful means to estimate the tracer distribution in cases where CT-based attenuation images are subject to misalignments or are not available. With an accurate estimate of the scatter contribution in the emission measurements, the joint TOF-PET reconstructions are within clinical acceptable accuracy. Copyright © 2018 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

Survival analysis of clinical mastitis data using a nested frailty Cox model fit as a mixed-effects Poisson model.

PubMed

Elghafghuf, Adel; Dufour, Simon; Reyher, Kristen; Dohoo, Ian; Stryhn, Henrik

2014-12-01

Mastitis is a complex disease affecting dairy cows and is considered to be the most costly disease of dairy herds. The hazard of mastitis is a function of many factors, both managerial and environmental, making its control a difficult issue to milk producers. Observational studies of clinical mastitis (CM) often generate datasets with a number of characteristics which influence the analysis of those data: the outcome of interest may be the time to occurrence of a case of mastitis, predictors may change over time (time-dependent predictors), the effects of factors may change over time (time-dependent effects), there are usually multiple hierarchical levels, and datasets may be very large. Analysis of such data often requires expansion of the data into the counting-process format - leading to larger datasets - thus complicating the analysis and requiring excessive computing time. In this study, a nested frailty Cox model with time-dependent predictors and effects was applied to Canadian Bovine Mastitis Research Network data in which 10,831 lactations of 8035 cows from 69 herds were followed through lactation until the first occurrence of CM. The model was fit to the data as a Poisson model with nested normally distributed random effects at the cow and herd levels. Risk factors associated with the hazard of CM during the lactation were identified, such as parity, calving season, herd somatic cell score, pasture access, fore-stripping, and proportion of treated cases of CM in a herd. The analysis showed that most of the predictors had a strong effect early in lactation and also demonstrated substantial variation in the baseline hazard among cows and between herds. A small simulation study for a setting similar to the real data was conducted to evaluate the Poisson maximum likelihood estimation approach with both Gaussian quadrature method and Laplace approximation. Further, the performance of the two methods was compared with the performance of a widely used estimation approach for frailty Cox models based on the penalized partial likelihood. The simulation study showed good performance for the Poisson maximum likelihood approach with Gaussian quadrature and biased variance component estimates for both the Poisson maximum likelihood with Laplace approximation and penalized partial likelihood approaches. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Effect of formal and informal likelihood functions on uncertainty assessment in a single event rainfall-runoff model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nourali, Mahrouz; Ghahraman, Bijan; Pourreza-Bilondi, Mohsen; Davary, Kamran

2016-09-01

In the present study, DREAM(ZS), Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis combined with both formal and informal likelihood functions, is used to investigate uncertainty of parameters of the HEC-HMS model in Tamar watershed, Golestan province, Iran. In order to assess the uncertainty of 24 parameters used in HMS, three flood events were used to calibrate and one flood event was used to validate the posterior distributions. Moreover, performance of seven different likelihood functions (L1-L7) was assessed by means of DREAM(ZS)approach. Four likelihood functions, L1-L4, Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency, Normalized absolute error (NAE), Index of agreement (IOA), and Chiew-McMahon efficiency (CM), is considered as informal, whereas remaining (L5-L7) is represented in formal category. L5 focuses on the relationship between the traditional least squares fitting and the Bayesian inference, and L6, is a hetereoscedastic maximum likelihood error (HMLE) estimator. Finally, in likelihood function L7, serial dependence of residual errors is accounted using a first-order autoregressive (AR) model of the residuals. According to the results, sensitivities of the parameters strongly depend on the likelihood function, and vary for different likelihood functions. Most of the parameters were better defined by formal likelihood functions L5 and L7 and showed a high sensitivity to model performance. Posterior cumulative distributions corresponding to the informal likelihood functions L1, L2, L3, L4 and the formal likelihood function L6 are approximately the same for most of the sub-basins, and these likelihood functions depict almost a similar effect on sensitivity of parameters. 95% total prediction uncertainty bounds bracketed most of the observed data. Considering all the statistical indicators and criteria of uncertainty assessment, including RMSE, KGE, NS, P-factor and R-factor, results showed that DREAM(ZS) algorithm performed better under formal likelihood functions L5 and L7, but likelihood function L5 may result in biased and unreliable estimation of parameters due to violation of the residualerror assumptions. Thus, likelihood function L7 provides posterior distribution of model parameters credibly and therefore can be employed for further applications.

Research on adaptive optics image restoration algorithm based on improved joint maximum a posteriori method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lijuan; Li, Yang; Wang, Junnan; Liu, Ying

2018-03-01

In this paper, we propose a point spread function (PSF) reconstruction method and joint maximum a posteriori (JMAP) estimation method for the adaptive optics image restoration. Using the JMAP method as the basic principle, we establish the joint log likelihood function of multi-frame adaptive optics (AO) images based on the image Gaussian noise models. To begin with, combining the observed conditions and AO system characteristics, a predicted PSF model for the wavefront phase effect is developed; then, we build up iterative solution formulas of the AO image based on our proposed algorithm, addressing the implementation process of multi-frame AO images joint deconvolution method. We conduct a series of experiments on simulated and real degraded AO images to evaluate our proposed algorithm. Compared with the Wiener iterative blind deconvolution (Wiener-IBD) algorithm and Richardson-Lucy IBD algorithm, our algorithm has better restoration effects including higher peak signal-to-noise ratio ( PSNR) and Laplacian sum ( LS) value than the others. The research results have a certain application values for actual AO image restoration.

Depression and Chronic Health Conditions Among Latinos: The Role of Social Networks.

PubMed

Soto, Sandra; Arredondo, Elva M; Villodas, Miguel T; Elder, John P; Quintanar, Elena; Madanat, Hala

2016-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the "buffering hypothesis" of social network characteristics in the association between chronic conditions and depression among Latinos. Cross-sectional self-report data from the San Diego Prevention Research Center's community survey of Latinos were used (n = 393). Separate multiple logistic regression models tested the role of chronic conditions and social network characteristics in the likelihood of moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms. Having a greater proportion of the network comprised of friends increased the likelihood of depression among those with high cholesterol. Having a greater proportion of women in the social network was directly related to the increased likelihood of depression, regardless of the presence of chronic health conditions. Findings suggest that network characteristics may play a role in the link between chronic conditions and depression among Latinos. Future research should explore strategies targeting the social networks of Latinos to improve health outcomes.

Maximum likelihood method for estimating airplane stability and control parameters from flight data in frequency domain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, V.

1980-01-01

A frequency domain maximum likelihood method is developed for the estimation of airplane stability and control parameters from measured data. The model of an airplane is represented by a discrete-type steady state Kalman filter with time variables replaced by their Fourier series expansions. The likelihood function of innovations is formulated, and by its maximization with respect to unknown parameters the estimation algorithm is obtained. This algorithm is then simplified to the output error estimation method with the data in the form of transformed time histories, frequency response curves, or spectral and cross-spectral densities. The development is followed by a discussion on the equivalence of the cost function in the time and frequency domains, and on advantages and disadvantages of the frequency domain approach. The algorithm developed is applied in four examples to the estimation of longitudinal parameters of a general aviation airplane using computer generated and measured data in turbulent and still air. The cost functions in the time and frequency domains are shown to be equivalent; therefore, both approaches are complementary and not contradictory. Despite some computational advantages of parameter estimation in the frequency domain, this approach is limited to linear equations of motion with constant coefficients.

Attenuation correction in emission tomography using the emission data—A review

PubMed Central

Li, Yusheng

2016-01-01

The problem of attenuation correction (AC) for quantitative positron emission tomography (PET) had been considered solved to a large extent after the commercial availability of devices combining PET with computed tomography (CT) in 2001; single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) has seen a similar development. However, stimulated in particular by technical advances toward clinical systems combining PET and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), research interest in alternative approaches for PET AC has grown substantially in the last years. In this comprehensive literature review, the authors first present theoretical results with relevance to simultaneous reconstruction of attenuation and activity. The authors then look back at the early history of this research area especially in PET; since this history is closely interwoven with that of similar approaches in SPECT, these will also be covered. We then review algorithmic advances in PET, including analytic and iterative algorithms. The analytic approaches are either based on the Helgason–Ludwig data consistency conditions of the Radon transform, or generalizations of John’s partial differential equation; with respect to iterative methods, we discuss maximum likelihood reconstruction of attenuation and activity (MLAA), the maximum likelihood attenuation correction factors (MLACF) algorithm, and their offspring. The description of methods is followed by a structured account of applications for simultaneous reconstruction techniques: this discussion covers organ-specific applications, applications specific to PET/MRI, applications using supplemental transmission information, and motion-aware applications. After briefly summarizing SPECT applications, we consider recent developments using emission data other than unscattered photons. In summary, developments using time-of-flight (TOF) PET emission data for AC have shown promising advances and open a wide range of applications. These techniques may both remedy deficiencies of purely MRI-based AC approaches in PET/MRI and improve standalone PET imaging. PMID:26843243

Attenuation correction in emission tomography using the emission data—A review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berker, Yannick, E-mail: berker@mail.med.upenn.edu; Li, Yusheng

2016-02-15

The problem of attenuation correction (AC) for quantitative positron emission tomography (PET) had been considered solved to a large extent after the commercial availability of devices combining PET with computed tomography (CT) in 2001; single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) has seen a similar development. However, stimulated in particular by technical advances toward clinical systems combining PET and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), research interest in alternative approaches for PET AC has grown substantially in the last years. In this comprehensive literature review, the authors first present theoretical results with relevance to simultaneous reconstruction of attenuation and activity. The authors thenmore » look back at the early history of this research area especially in PET; since this history is closely interwoven with that of similar approaches in SPECT, these will also be covered. We then review algorithmic advances in PET, including analytic and iterative algorithms. The analytic approaches are either based on the Helgason–Ludwig data consistency conditions of the Radon transform, or generalizations of John’s partial differential equation; with respect to iterative methods, we discuss maximum likelihood reconstruction of attenuation and activity (MLAA), the maximum likelihood attenuation correction factors (MLACF) algorithm, and their offspring. The description of methods is followed by a structured account of applications for simultaneous reconstruction techniques: this discussion covers organ-specific applications, applications specific to PET/MRI, applications using supplemental transmission information, and motion-aware applications. After briefly summarizing SPECT applications, we consider recent developments using emission data other than unscattered photons. In summary, developments using time-of-flight (TOF) PET emission data for AC have shown promising advances and open a wide range of applications. These techniques may both remedy deficiencies of purely MRI-based AC approaches in PET/MRI and improve standalone PET imaging.« less

Estimators for longitudinal latent exposure models: examining measurement model assumptions.

PubMed

Sánchez, Brisa N; Kim, Sehee; Sammel, Mary D

2017-06-15

Latent variable (LV) models are increasingly being used in environmental epidemiology as a way to summarize multiple environmental exposures and thus minimize statistical concerns that arise in multiple regression. LV models may be especially useful when multivariate exposures are collected repeatedly over time. LV models can accommodate a variety of assumptions but, at the same time, present the user with many choices for model specification particularly in the case of exposure data collected repeatedly over time. For instance, the user could assume conditional independence of observed exposure biomarkers given the latent exposure and, in the case of longitudinal latent exposure variables, time invariance of the measurement model. Choosing which assumptions to relax is not always straightforward. We were motivated by a study of prenatal lead exposure and mental development, where assumptions of the measurement model for the time-changing longitudinal exposure have appreciable impact on (maximum-likelihood) inferences about the health effects of lead exposure. Although we were not particularly interested in characterizing the change of the LV itself, imposing a longitudinal LV structure on the repeated multivariate exposure measures could result in high efficiency gains for the exposure-disease association. We examine the biases of maximum likelihood estimators when assumptions about the measurement model for the longitudinal latent exposure variable are violated. We adapt existing instrumental variable estimators to the case of longitudinal exposures and propose them as an alternative to estimate the health effects of a time-changing latent predictor. We show that instrumental variable estimators remain unbiased for a wide range of data generating models and have advantages in terms of mean squared error. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, L. W., Jr.

2003-01-01

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, sigma(sub 2), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index sigma(sub 2) greater than sigma(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter sigma(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (Pl) consistency (asymptotically unbiased), (P2) efficiency (asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only be ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum- detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However, the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are stained in practice are investigated.

Computer-implemented land use classification with pattern recognition software and ERTS digital data. [Mississippi coastal plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joyce, A. T.

1974-01-01

Significant progress has been made in the classification of surface conditions (land uses) with computer-implemented techniques based on the use of ERTS digital data and pattern recognition software. The supervised technique presently used at the NASA Earth Resources Laboratory is based on maximum likelihood ratioing with a digital table look-up approach to classification. After classification, colors are assigned to the various surface conditions (land uses) classified, and the color-coded classification is film recorded on either positive or negative 9 1/2 in. film at the scale desired. Prints of the film strips are then mosaicked and photographed to produce a land use map in the format desired. Computer extraction of statistical information is performed to show the extent of each surface condition (land use) within any given land unit that can be identified in the image. Evaluations of the product indicate that classification accuracy is well within the limits for use by land resource managers and administrators. Classifications performed with digital data acquired during different seasons indicate that the combination of two or more classifications offer even better accuracy.

A Copula-Based Conditional Probabilistic Forecast Model for Wind Power Ramps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodge, Brian S; Krishnan, Venkat K; Zhang, Jie

Efficient management of wind ramping characteristics can significantly reduce wind integration costs for balancing authorities. By considering the stochastic dependence of wind power ramp (WPR) features, this paper develops a conditional probabilistic wind power ramp forecast (cp-WPRF) model based on Copula theory. The WPRs dataset is constructed by extracting ramps from a large dataset of historical wind power. Each WPR feature (e.g., rate, magnitude, duration, and start-time) is separately forecasted by considering the coupling effects among different ramp features. To accurately model the marginal distributions with a copula, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is adopted to characterize the WPR uncertaintymore » and features. The Canonical Maximum Likelihood (CML) method is used to estimate parameters of the multivariable copula. The optimal copula model is chosen based on the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) from each copula family. Finally, the best conditions based cp-WPRF model is determined by predictive interval (PI) based evaluation metrics. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that the developed copula-based cp-WPRF model can predict WPRs with a high level of reliability and sharpness.« less

Empirical Bayes Approaches to Multivariate Fuzzy Partitions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodbury, Max A.; Manton, Kenneth G.

1991-01-01

An empirical Bayes-maximum likelihood estimation procedure is presented for the application of fuzzy partition models in describing high dimensional discrete response data. The model describes individuals in terms of partial membership in multiple latent categories that represent bounded discrete spaces. (SLD)

Estimation of Multinomial Probabilities.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-11-01

1971) and Alam (1978) have shown that the maximum likelihood estimator is admissible with respect to the quadratic loss. Steinhaus (1957) and Trybula...appear). Johnson, B. Mck. (1971). On admissible estimators for certain fixed sample binomial populations. Ann. Math. Statist. 92, 1579-1587. Steinhaus , H

Psychometric Properties of IRT Proficiency Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kolen, Michael J.; Tong, Ye

2010-01-01

Psychometric properties of item response theory proficiency estimates are considered in this paper. Proficiency estimators based on summed scores and pattern scores include non-Bayes maximum likelihood and test characteristic curve estimators and Bayesian estimators. The psychometric properties investigated include reliability, conditional…

A Study of Algorithms for Covariance Structure Analysis with Specific Comparisons Using Factor Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, S. Y.; Jennrich, R. I.

1979-01-01

A variety of algorithms for analyzing covariance structures are considered. Additionally, two methods of estimation, maximum likelihood, and weighted least squares are considered. Comparisons are made between these algorithms and factor analysis. (Author/JKS)

Global population structure and adaptive evolution of aflatoxin-producing fungi

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We employed interspecific principal component analyses for six different categories (geography, species, precipitation, temperature, aflatoxin chemotype profile, and mating type) and inferred maximum likelihood phylogenies for six combined loci, including two aflatoxin cluster regions (aflM/alfN and...

The Limits of Coding with Joint Constraints on Detected and Undetected Error Rates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dolinar, Sam; Andrews, Kenneth; Pollara, Fabrizio; Divsalar, Dariush

2008-01-01

We develop a remarkably tight upper bound on the performance of a parameterized family of bounded angle maximum-likelihood (BA-ML) incomplete decoders. The new bound for this class of incomplete decoders is calculated from the code's weight enumerator, and is an extension of Poltyrev-type bounds developed for complete ML decoders. This bound can also be applied to bound the average performance of random code ensembles in terms of an ensemble average weight enumerator. We also formulate conditions defining a parameterized family of optimal incomplete decoders, defined to minimize both the total codeword error probability and the undetected error probability for any fixed capability of the decoder to detect errors. We illustrate the gap between optimal and BA-ML incomplete decoding via simulation of a small code.

Performance of convolutionally encoded noncoherent MFSK modem in fading channels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Modestino, J. W.; Mui, S. Y.

1976-01-01

The performance of a convolutionally encoded noncoherent multiple-frequency shift-keyed (MFSK) modem utilizing Viterbi maximum-likelihood decoding and operating on a fading channel is described. Both the lognormal and classical Rician fading channels are considered for both slow and time-varying channel conditions. Primary interest is in the resulting bit error rate as a function of the ratio between the energy per transmitted information bit and noise spectral density, parameterized by both the fading channel and code parameters. Fairly general upper bounds on bit error probability are provided and compared with simulation results in the two extremes of zero and infinite channel memory. The efficacy of simple block interleaving in combatting channel memory effects are thoroughly explored. Both quantized and unquantized receiver outputs are considered.

Phylogeny of Salsoleae s.l. (Chenopodiaceae) based on DNA sequence data from ITS, psbB-psbH, and rbcL, with emphasis on taxa of northwestern China

Treesearch

Zhi-Bin Wen; Ming-Li Zhang; Ge-Lin Zhu; Stewart C. Sanderson

2010-01-01

To reconstruct phylogeny and verify the monophyly of major subgroups, a total of 52 species representing almost all species of Salsoleae s.l. in China were sampled, with analysis based on three molecular markers (nrDNA ITS, cpDNA psbB-psbH and rbcL), using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference methods. Our molecular evidence provides strong...

CONSISTENCY UNDER SAMPLING OF EXPONENTIAL RANDOM GRAPH MODELS.

PubMed

Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla; Rinaldo, Alessandro

2013-04-01

The growing availability of network data and of scientific interest in distributed systems has led to the rapid development of statistical models of network structure. Typically, however, these are models for the entire network, while the data consists only of a sampled sub-network. Parameters for the whole network, which is what is of interest, are estimated by applying the model to the sub-network. This assumes that the model is consistent under sampling , or, in terms of the theory of stochastic processes, that it defines a projective family. Focusing on the popular class of exponential random graph models (ERGMs), we show that this apparently trivial condition is in fact violated by many popular and scientifically appealing models, and that satisfying it drastically limits ERGM's expressive power. These results are actually special cases of more general results about exponential families of dependent random variables, which we also prove. Using such results, we offer easily checked conditions for the consistency of maximum likelihood estimation in ERGMs, and discuss some possible constructive responses.

CONSISTENCY UNDER SAMPLING OF EXPONENTIAL RANDOM GRAPH MODELS

PubMed Central

Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla; Rinaldo, Alessandro

2015-01-01

The growing availability of network data and of scientific interest in distributed systems has led to the rapid development of statistical models of network structure. Typically, however, these are models for the entire network, while the data consists only of a sampled sub-network. Parameters for the whole network, which is what is of interest, are estimated by applying the model to the sub-network. This assumes that the model is consistent under sampling, or, in terms of the theory of stochastic processes, that it defines a projective family. Focusing on the popular class of exponential random graph models (ERGMs), we show that this apparently trivial condition is in fact violated by many popular and scientifically appealing models, and that satisfying it drastically limits ERGM’s expressive power. These results are actually special cases of more general results about exponential families of dependent random variables, which we also prove. Using such results, we offer easily checked conditions for the consistency of maximum likelihood estimation in ERGMs, and discuss some possible constructive responses. PMID:26166910

Inverse Ising problem in continuous time: A latent variable approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, Christian; Opper, Manfred

2017-12-01

We consider the inverse Ising problem: the inference of network couplings from observed spin trajectories for a model with continuous time Glauber dynamics. By introducing two sets of auxiliary latent random variables we render the likelihood into a form which allows for simple iterative inference algorithms with analytical updates. The variables are (1) Poisson variables to linearize an exponential term which is typical for point process likelihoods and (2) Pólya-Gamma variables, which make the likelihood quadratic in the coupling parameters. Using the augmented likelihood, we derive an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood estimate of network parameters. Using a third set of latent variables we extend the EM algorithm to sparse couplings via L1 regularization. Finally, we develop an efficient approximate Bayesian inference algorithm using a variational approach. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithms on data simulated from an Ising model. For data which are simulated from a more biologically plausible network with spiking neurons, we show that the Ising model captures well the low order statistics of the data and how the Ising couplings are related to the underlying synaptic structure of the simulated network.

L.U.St: a tool for approximated maximum likelihood supertree reconstruction.

PubMed

Akanni, Wasiu A; Creevey, Christopher J; Wilkinson, Mark; Pisani, Davide

2014-06-12

Supertrees combine disparate, partially overlapping trees to generate a synthesis that provides a high level perspective that cannot be attained from the inspection of individual phylogenies. Supertrees can be seen as meta-analytical tools that can be used to make inferences based on results of previous scientific studies. Their meta-analytical application has increased in popularity since it was realised that the power of statistical tests for the study of evolutionary trends critically depends on the use of taxon-dense phylogenies. Further to that, supertrees have found applications in phylogenomics where they are used to combine gene trees and recover species phylogenies based on genome-scale data sets. Here, we present the L.U.St package, a python tool for approximate maximum likelihood supertree inference and illustrate its application using a genomic data set for the placental mammals. L.U.St allows the calculation of the approximate likelihood of a supertree, given a set of input trees, performs heuristic searches to look for the supertree of highest likelihood, and performs statistical tests of two or more supertrees. To this end, L.U.St implements a winning sites test allowing ranking of a collection of a-priori selected hypotheses, given as a collection of input supertree topologies. It also outputs a file of input-tree-wise likelihood scores that can be used as input to CONSEL for calculation of standard tests of two trees (e.g. Kishino-Hasegawa, Shimidoara-Hasegawa and Approximately Unbiased tests). This is the first fully parametric implementation of a supertree method, it has clearly understood properties, and provides several advantages over currently available supertree approaches. It is easy to implement and works on any platform that has python installed. bitBucket page - https://afro-juju@bitbucket.org/afro-juju/l.u.st.git. Davide.Pisani@bristol.ac.uk.

A study of voice production characteristics of astronuat speech during Apollo 11 for speaker modeling in space.

PubMed

Yu, Chengzhu; Hansen, John H L

2017-03-01

Human physiology has evolved to accommodate environmental conditions, including temperature, pressure, and air chemistry unique to Earth. However, the environment in space varies significantly compared to that on Earth and, therefore, variability is expected in astronauts' speech production mechanism. In this study, the variations of astronaut voice characteristics during the NASA Apollo 11 mission are analyzed. Specifically, acoustical features such as fundamental frequency and phoneme formant structure that are closely related to the speech production system are studied. For a further understanding of astronauts' vocal tract spectrum variation in space, a maximum likelihood frequency warping based analysis is proposed to detect the vocal tract spectrum displacement during space conditions. The results from fundamental frequency, formant structure, as well as vocal spectrum displacement indicate that astronauts change their speech production mechanism when in space. Moreover, the experimental results for astronaut voice identification tasks indicate that current speaker recognition solutions are highly vulnerable to astronaut voice production variations in space conditions. Future recommendations from this study suggest that successful applications of speaker recognition during extended space missions require robust speaker modeling techniques that could effectively adapt to voice production variation caused by diverse space conditions.

Global identification of stochastic dynamical systems under different pseudo-static operating conditions: The functionally pooled ARMAX case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakellariou, J. S.; Fassois, S. D.

2017-01-01

The identification of a single global model for a stochastic dynamical system operating under various conditions is considered. Each operating condition is assumed to have a pseudo-static effect on the dynamics and be characterized by a single measurable scheduling variable. Identification is accomplished within a recently introduced Functionally Pooled (FP) framework, which offers a number of advantages over Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) identification techniques. The focus of the work is on the extension of the framework to include the important FP-ARMAX model case. Compared to their simpler FP-ARX counterparts, FP-ARMAX models are much more general and offer improved flexibility in describing various types of stochastic noise, but at the same time lead to a more complicated, non-quadratic, estimation problem. Prediction Error (PE), Maximum Likelihood (ML), and multi-stage estimation methods are postulated, and the PE estimator optimality, in terms of consistency and asymptotic efficiency, is analytically established. The postulated estimators are numerically assessed via Monte Carlo experiments, while the effectiveness of the approach and its superiority over its FP-ARX counterpart are demonstrated via an application case study pertaining to simulated railway vehicle suspension dynamics under various mass loading conditions.

Probabilistic Harmonic Analysis on Distributed Photovoltaic Integration Considering Typical Weather Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bin, Che; Ruoying, Yu; Dongsheng, Dang; Xiangyan, Wang

2017-05-01

Distributed Generation (DG) integrating to the network would cause the harmonic pollution which would cause damages on electrical devices and affect the normal operation of power system. On the other hand, due to the randomness of the wind and solar irradiation, the output of DG is random, too, which leads to an uncertainty of the harmonic generated by the DG. Thus, probabilistic methods are needed to analyse the impacts of the DG integration. In this work we studied the harmonic voltage probabilistic distribution and the harmonic distortion in distributed network after the distributed photovoltaic (DPV) system integrating in different weather conditions, mainly the sunny day, cloudy day, rainy day and the snowy day. The probabilistic distribution function of the DPV output power in different typical weather conditions could be acquired via the parameter identification method of maximum likelihood estimation. The Monte-Carlo simulation method was adopted to calculate the probabilistic distribution of harmonic voltage content at different frequency orders as well as the harmonic distortion (THD) in typical weather conditions. The case study was based on the IEEE33 system and the results of harmonic voltage content probabilistic distribution as well as THD in typical weather conditions were compared.

Bayesian Framework for Water Quality Model Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management

EPA Science Inventory

A formal Bayesian methodology is presented for integrated model calibration and risk-based water quality management using Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and maximum likelihood estimation (BMCML). The primary focus is on lucid integration of model calibration with risk-based wat...

Applying six classifiers to airborne hyperspectral imagery for detecting giant reed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study evaluated and compared six different image classifiers, including minimum distance (MD), Mahalanobis distance (MAHD), maximum likelihood (ML), spectral angle mapper (SAM), mixture tuned matched filtering (MTMF) and support vector machine (SVM), for detecting and mapping giant reed (Arundo...

Attic Inlet Technology Update

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Attic inlets are a popular addition for new construction and energy saving retrofits. Proper management of attic inlets is necessary to get maximum benefits from the system and reduce the likelihood of moisture-related problems in the structure. Solar energy levels were determined for the continen...

Methods and Tools for Evaluating Uncertainty in Ecological Models: A Survey

EPA Science Inventory

Poster presented at the Ecological Society of America Meeting. Ecologists are familiar with a variety of uncertainty techniques, particularly in the intersection of maximum likelihood parameter estimation and Monte Carlo analysis techniques, as well as a recent increase in Baye...

ESTIMATING PROPORTION OF AREA OCCUPIED UNDER COMPLEX SURVEY DESIGNS

EPA Science Inventory

Estimating proportion of sites occupied, or proportion of area occupied (PAO) is a common problem in environmental studies. Typically, field surveys do not ensure that occupancy of a site is made with perfect detection. Maximum likelihood estimation of site occupancy rates when...

Age-related differences in trunk muscle reflexive behaviors.

PubMed

Shojaei, Iman; Nussbaum, Maury A; Bazrgari, Babak

2016-10-03

Reports of larger passive and similar intrinsic trunk stiffness in older vs. younger populations suggest a diminishing demand for reflexive contributions of trunk muscles to spinal stability with aging. It remains unclear, though, whether such diminishing demands result in deterioration of trunk muscle reflexive behaviors. A cross-sectional study was completed to assess age-related differences in the latency and likelihood of trunk muscle reflexive responses to sudden perturbations. Sixty healthy individuals, aged 20-70 years, were recruited to form five equal-sized and gender-balanced age groups. Using a displacement-control, sudden perturbation paradigm, the latency and likelihood of trunk muscle reflexive responses to sudden perturbations were estimated, and the influences of age, gender, and level of effort (20% versus 30% of maximum voluntary exertion-MVE) were evaluated. There were no consistent age-related differences found in any of the measures of trunk muscle reflexive behavior. However, the latency of muscle response to perturbation was generally higher among older individuals, and this difference was significant in the condition involving 30% MVE effort. With an increase in level of effort (from 20% to 30% of MVE), there was a ~7% increase in the latency of trunk muscle responses to anteriorly-directed perturbations as well as ~ 15% (21%) decrease (increase) in response likelihood during anteriorly (posteriorly) directed perturbations. Furthermore, the reflexive response likelihood of trunk muscles was 28% (58%) larger (smaller) in female vs. male participants during anteriorly (posteriorly) directed perturbations. Our results did not, in general, support the hypothesis of an age-related decay in reflexive trunk muscle behaviors. Larger reflexive responses were associated with lower trunk intrinsic stiffness among females and during a lower level of effort, suggesting a secondary role for reflexive responses in spinal stability. Such secondary compensatory responses appear, however, to be consistent over a wide age range. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantum state estimation when qubits are lost: a no-data-left-behind approach

DOE PAGES

Williams, Brian P.; Lougovski, Pavel

2017-04-06

We present an approach to Bayesian mean estimation of quantum states using hyperspherical parametrization and an experiment-specific likelihood which allows utilization of all available data, even when qubits are lost. With this method, we report the first closed-form Bayesian mean and maximum likelihood estimates for the ideal single qubit. Due to computational constraints, we utilize numerical sampling to determine the Bayesian mean estimate for a photonic two-qubit experiment in which our novel analysis reduces burdens associated with experimental asymmetries and inefficiencies. This method can be applied to quantum states of any dimension and experimental complexity.