Variability of Arctic Sea Ice as Determined from Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1999-01-01

The compiled, quality-controlled satellite multichannel passive-microwave record of polar sea ice now spans over 18 years, from November 1978 through December 1996, and is revealing considerable information about the Arctic sea ice cover and its variability. The information includes data on ice concentrations (percent areal coverages of ice), ice extents, ice melt, ice velocities, the seasonal cycle of the ice, the interannual variability of the ice, the frequency of ice coverage, and the length of the sea ice season. The data reveal marked regional and interannual variabilities, as well as some statistically significant trends. For the north polar ice cover as a whole, maximum ice extents varied over a range of 14,700,000 - 15,900,000 sq km, while individual regions experienced much greater percent variations, for instance, with the Greenland Sea having a range of 740,000 - 1,110,000 sq km in its yearly maximum ice coverage. In spite of the large variations from year to year and region to region, overall the Arctic ice extents showed a statistically significant, 2.80% / decade negative trend over the 18.2-year period. Ice season lengths, which vary from only a few weeks near the ice margins to the full year in the large region of perennial ice coverage, also experienced interannual variability, along with spatially coherent overall trends. Linear least squares trends show the sea ice season to have lengthened in much of the Bering Sea, Baffin Bay, the Davis Strait, and the Labrador Sea, but to have shortened over a much larger area, including the Sea of Okhotsk, the Greenland Sea, the Barents Sea, and the southeastern Arctic.

Recent climate variability and its impacts on soybean yields in Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Danielle Barros; Rao, V. Brahmananda

2011-08-01

Recent climate variability in rainfall, temperatures (maximum and minimum), and the diurnal temperature range is studied with emphasis on its influence over soybean yields in southern Brazil, during 1969 to 2002. The results showed that the soybean ( Glycine max L. Merril) yields are more affected by changes in temperature during summer, while changes in rainfall are more important during the beginning of plantation and at its peak of development. Furthermore, soybean yields in Paraná are more sensitive to rainfall variations, while soybean yields in the Rio Grande do Sul are more sensitive to variations in temperature. Effects of interannual climatic variability on soybean yields are evaluated through three agro-meteorological models: additive Stewart, multiplicative Rao, and multiplicative Jensen. The Jensen model is able to reproduce the interannual behavior of soybean yield reasonably well.

Seasonal and interannual variability of chlorophyll-a and associated physical synchronous variability in the western tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Xueyan; Dong, Qing; Xue, Cunjin; Wu, Shuchao

2016-06-01

Based on long-term satellite-derived ocean data sets and methods of empirical orthogonal function and singular value decomposition, we investigated the spatiotemporal variability of the chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL) on seasonal and interannual timescales in the western tropical Pacific associated with physical ocean variables of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level anomaly (SLA) and sea surface wind (SSW), and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. The bio-physical synchronous variation on interannual timescale was also confirmed in terms of the scales of variability and oscillation periods in the time-frequency space using the methods of Fourier transform, Morlet wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence analysis. On a seasonal timescale, the first two modes of the monthly mean CHL fields described the consecutive spatiotemporal variation in CHL in the western tropical Pacific. CHL reached the maximum during late winter-early spring and minimum during summer-early autumn with the exception of the northeast of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. The CHL bloom in boreal winter-spring was closely associated with cold SST, high sea level along the North Equatorial Countercurrent meanders, and strong wind. On an interannual timescale, the variability of CHL exhibited a close correlation with SST, SLA, SSW, and ENSO. During El Niño, CHL increased in the oligotrophic western basin of the warm pool associated with cold SST, low SLA, and strong westerly winds but decreased in the mesotrophic eastern basin of the warm pool in association with warm SST, high SLA, and weak easterly trade winds. There may exist time-lag for the bio-physical covariation, i.e., CHL and SST varied simultaneously within 1 month, and CHL variations led SLA by approximately 0-3 months but lagged wind speed by about 1 month. In the time-frequency domain, the interannual variability in CHL and physical ocean variables had high common power, indicating that the variability scales and oscillation periods of CHL were significantly related to these of SST, SLA, and ENSO index. The significant anti-phase relationships were also shown between CHL and SST, CHL and SLA, and CHL and multivariate ENSO index through the wavelet coherence analysis.

Trends and Variability of Global Fire Emissions Due To Historical Anthropogenic Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Daniel S.; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Rabin, Sam

2018-01-01

Globally, fires are a major source of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere, occurring on a seasonal cycle and with substantial interannual variability. To understand past trends and variability in sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon, we need quantitative estimates of global fire distributions. Here we introduce an updated version of the Fire Including Natural and Agricultural Lands model, version 2 (FINAL.2), modified to include multiday burning and enhanced fire spread rate in forest crowns. We demonstrate that the improved model reproduces the interannual variability and spatial distribution of fire emissions reported in present-day remotely sensed inventories. We use FINAL.2 to simulate historical (post-1700) fires and attribute past fire trends and variability to individual drivers: land use and land cover change, population growth, and lightning variability. Global fire emissions of carbon increase by about 10% between 1700 and 1900, reaching a maximum of 3.4 Pg C yr-1 in the 1910s, followed by a decrease to about 5% below year 1700 levels by 2010. The decrease in emissions from the 1910s to the present day is driven mainly by land use change, with a smaller contribution from increased fire suppression due to increased human population and is largest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Interannual variability of global fire emissions is similar in the present day as in the early historical period, but present-day wildfires would be more variable in the absence of land use change.

Quantifying the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of North American Isoprene Emissions Using Satellite Observations of the Formaldehyde Column

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmer, Paul I.; Abbot, Dorian S.; Fu, Tzung-May; Jacob, Daniel J.; Chance, Kelly; Kurosu, Thomas P.; Guenther, Alex; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Stanton, Jenny C.; Pilling, Michael J.;

Environmental links to interannual variability in shellfish toxicity in Cobscook Bay and eastern Maine, a strongly tidally mixed coastal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horecka, Hannah M.; Thomas, Andrew C.; Weatherbee, Ryan A.

2014-05-01

The Gulf of Maine experiences annual closures of shellfish harvesting due to the accumulation of toxins produced by dinoflagellates of the genus Alexandrium. Factors controlling the timing, location, and magnitude of these events in eastern Maine remain poorly understood. Previous work identified possible linkages between interannual variability of oceanographic variables and shellfish toxicity along the western Maine coastline but no such linkages were evident along the eastern Maine coast in the vicinity of Cobscook Bay, where strong tidal mixing tends to reduce seasonal variability in oceanographic properties. Using 21 years (1985-2005) of shellfish toxicity data, interannual variability in two metrics of annual toxicity, maximum magnitude and total annual toxicity, from stations in the Cobscook Bay region are examined for relationships to a suite of available environmental variables. Consistent with earlier work, no (or only weak) correlations were found between toxicity and oceanographic variables, even those very proximate to the stations such as local sea surface temperature. Similarly no correlations were evident between toxicity and air temperature, precipitation or relative humidity. The data suggest possible connections to local river discharge, but plausible mechanisms are not obvious. Correlations between toxicity and two variables indicative of local meteorological conditions, dew point and atmospheric pressure, both suggest a link between increased toxicity in these eastern Maine stations and weather conditions characterized by clearer skies/drier air (or less stormy/humid conditions). As no correlation of opposite sign was evident between toxicity and local precipitation, one plausible link is through light availability and its positive impact on phytoplankton production in this persistently foggy section of coast. These preliminary findings point to both the value of maintaining long-term shellfish toxicity sampling and a need for inclusion of weather variability in future modeling studies aimed at development of a more mechanistic understanding of factors controlling interannual differences in eastern Gulf of Maine shellfish toxicity.

Deep Bering Sea Circulation and Variability, 2001-2016, From Argo Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Gregory C.; Stabeno, Phyllis J.

2017-12-01

The mean structure, seasonal cycle, and interannual variability of temperature and salinity are analyzed in the deep Bering Sea basin using Argo profile data collected from 2001 to 2016. Gyre transports are estimated using geostrophic stream function maps of Argo profile data referenced to a 1,000 dbar nondivergent absolute velocity stream function mapped from Argo parking pressure displacement data. Relatively warm and salty water from the North Pacific enters the basin through the Near Strait and passages between Aleutian Islands to the east. This water then flows in a cyclonic (counterclockwise) direction around the region, cooling (and freshening) along its path. Aleutian North Slope Current transports from 0 to 1,890 dbar are estimated at 3-6 Sverdrups (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1) eastward, feeding into the northwestward Bering Slope Current with transports of mostly 5-6 Sv. The Kamchatka Current has transports of ˜6 Sv north of Shirshov Ridge, increasing to 14-16 Sv south of the ridge, where it is augmented by westward flow from Near Strait. Temperature exhibits strong interannual variations in the upper ocean, with warm periods in 2004-2005 and 2015-2016, and cold periods around 2009 and 2012. In contrast, upper ocean salinity generally decreases from 2001 to 2016. As a result of this salinity decrease, the density of the subsurface temperature minimum decreased over this time period, despite more interannual variability in the minimum temperature value. The subsurface temperature maximum also exhibits interannual variability, but with values generally warmer than those previously reported for the 1970s and 1980s.

Contribution of Phenological and Physiological Variations on Northern Vegetation Productivity Changes over Last Three Decades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganguly, Sangram

2015-01-01

Plant phenology and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of gross primary productivity (GPP) of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts of phenology and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we investigate 1) how vegetation phenology and physiological status (maximum photosynthesis) are evolved over last three decades and 2) how such components (phenology and physiological status) contribute on inter-annual variation of the GPP during the last three decades. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed (GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies), NDVI3g (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index 3rd generation) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)) to extract larger scale phenology metrics (growing season start, end and duration); and productivity (i.e., growing season integrated vegetation index, GSIVI) to answer these questions. For evaluation purpose, we also introduced field-measured phenology and productivity datasets (e.g., FLUXNET) and possible remotely-sensed and modeled metrics at continental and regional scales. From this investigation, we found that onset of the growing season has advanced by 1.61 days per decade and the growing season end has delayed by 0.67 days per decade over the circumpolar region. This asymmetric extension of growing season results in a longer growing-season trend (2.96 days per decade) and widespread increasing vegetation-productivity trend (2.96 GSIVI per decade) over Northern land. However, the regionally-diverged phenology shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity, inter-annual variability and trend. We quantified that about 50 percent, 13 percent and 6.5 percent of Northern land's inter-annual variability are dominantly controlled by the onset of the growing season, the end of the growing season and the maximum photosynthetic state, respectively. Productivity characterization over the other approximately 30 percent region has been driven by these co-dominant drivers. Our study clearly shows that regionally different contribution of phenological and physiological components on characterizing vegetation production over the last three decades.

Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

2016-08-01

This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

Radiocarbon variability in the western equatorial Pacific inferred from a high-resolution coral record from Nauru Island

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guilderson, T.P.; Schrag, D.P.; Kashgarian, M.

1998-10-01

We have generated a high resolution coral {Delta}{sup 14}C record spanning the last 50 years to document the seasonal and interannual redistribution of surface waters in the western tropical Pacific. Prebomb (1947{endash}1956) {Delta}{sup 14}C values average {minus}63{per_thousand} and have a total range of 30{per_thousand}. Values begin to increase in 1957, reaching a maximum of 137{per_thousand} in mid-1983. Large interannual variability of up to 80{per_thousand} closely follows the El Ni{tilde n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During each ENSO warm phase, {Delta}{sup 14}C values begin to increase, reflecting the reduction of low-{sup 14}C water upwelling in the east and the invasion of subtropical watermore » into the western equatorial tropical Pacific. Maximum {Delta}{sup 14}C values are in phase or lag the corresponding sea surface temperature maxima in the eastern tropical Pacific, whereas the rapid return to more negative {Delta}{sup 14}C is in phase with eastern Pacific ENSO indices. The highest-amplitude excursions occur during the 1965/1966 and 1972/1973 events, when the {sup 14}C contrast is highest between the eastern Pacific and subtropics. The 1982/1983 El Ni{tilde n}o, although a larger ENSO event, has a lower {Delta}{sup 14}C amplitude, reflecting the penetration of bomb radiocarbon into the equatorial undercurrent and the reduced contrast in {Delta}{sup 14}C between thermocline and subtropical surface waters at that time. This coral record demonstrates the potential for using similar radiocarbon time series for documenting variability in Pacific shallow circulation over interannual and decadal timescales. {copyright} 1998 American Geophysical Union« less

An Analysis of Inter-annual Variability and Uncertainty of Continental Surface Heat Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, S. Y.; Deng, Y.; Wang, J.

2016-12-01

The inter-annual variability and the corresponding uncertainty of land surface heat fluxes during the first decade of the 21st century are re-evaluated at continental scale based on the heat fluxes estimated by the maximum entropy production (MEP) model. The MEP model predicted heat fluxes are constrained by surface radiation fluxes, automatically satisfy surface energy balance, and are independent of temperature/moisture gradient, wind speed, and roughness lengths. The surface radiation fluxes and temperature data from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System and the surface specific humidity data from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications were used to reproduce the global surface heat fluxes with land-cover data from the NASA Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS). Our analysis shows that the annual means of continental latent heat fluxes have increasing trends associated with increasing trends in surface net radiative fluxes. The sensible heat fluxes also have increasing trends over most continents except for South America. Ground heat fluxes have little trends. The continental-scale analysis of the MEP fluxes are compared with other existing global surface fluxes data products and the implications of the results for inter-annual to decadal variability of regional surface energy budget are discussed.

Inter Annual Variability of the Acoustic Propagation in the Yellow Sea Identified from a Synoptic Monthly Gridded Database as Compared with GDEM

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

the world climate is in fact warming due to anthropogenic causes (Anderegg et al. 2010; Solomon et al. 2009). To put this in terms for this research ...2006). The present research uses a 0.5’ resolution. B. SEDIMENTS DATABASE There are four openly available sediment databases: Enhanced, Standard...DISTRIBUTION CODE 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This research investigates the inter-annual acoustic variability in the Yellow Sea identified from

Interannual physiological and growth responses of glacial Juniperus to changes in atmospheric [CO2] since the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerhart, L. M.; Harris, J. M.; Ward, J. K.

2011-12-01

During the Last Glacial Maximum, atmospheric [CO2] was as low as 180 ppm and has currently risen to a modern value of 393 ppm as a result of fossil fuel combustion and deforestation. In order to understand how changing [CO2] influenced trees over the last 50,000 years, we analyzed carbon isotope ratios and width of individual tree rings from glacial Juniperus specimens preserved in the Rancho La Brea tar pits in southern California (aged 14-49 kyr BP). Modern trees were also analyzed to compare effects of changing precipitation, temperature and atmospheric [CO2] on physiology and growth. To assess physiological responses, we calculated ci/ca (intercellular [CO2]/atmospheric [CO2]) for each annual ring of each tree. This ratio incorporates numerous aspects of plant physiology, including stomatal conductance and photosynthetic capacity. In addition, we measured ring widths for each sample, and standardized these measurements into indices in order to compare across individuals. Mean ci/ca values remained constant throughout 50,000 years despite major environmental changes, indicating a long-term physiological set point for ci/ca in this group. Constant ci/ca ratios would be maintained through offsetting changes in stomatal conductance and photosynthetic capacity. Glacial Juniperus never experienced ci values below 90 ppm, suggesting a survival compensation point for Juniperus. In addition, glacial trees showed significantly reduced interannual variation in ci/ca, even though interannual climatic variability was as high during the LGM in this region as it is today. A lack of variability in ci/ca of glacial trees suggests that tree physiology was dominated by low [CO2], which shows low interannual variation. Modern trees showed high interannual variation in ci/ca, since water availability dominates current physiological responses and varies greatly from year to year. Interestingly, interannual variation in ring width index did not show significant differences between glacial and modern trees, suggesting these trees were adapted to maintain growth under low [CO2]. These adaptations may constrain the ability of modern trees to fully utilize increases in atmospheric [CO2]. These results have significant implications for our understanding of the adaptations of trees to changing [CO2] and indicate that the environmental factors that most strongly influence plant physiology may have changed over geologic time scales.

Interannual Variation of Surface Circulation in the Japan/East Sea due to External Forcings and Intrinsic Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Byoung-Ju; Cho, Seong Hun; Jung, Hee Seok; Lee, Sang-Ho; Byun, Do-Seong; Kwon, Kyungman

2018-03-01

The interannual variation of surface ocean currents can be as large as seasonal variation in the Japan/East Sea (JES). To identify the major factors that cause such interannual variability of surface ocean circulation in the JES, surface circulation was simulated from 1998 to 2009 using a three-dimensional model. Contributions of atmospheric forcing (ATM), open boundary data (OBC), and intrinsic variability (ITV) of the surface flow in the JES on the interannual variability of surface ocean circulation were separately examined using numerical simulations. Variability in surface circulation was quantified in terms of variance in sea surface height, 100-m depth water temperature, and surface currents. ITV was found to be the dominant factor that induced interannual variabilities of surface circulation, the main path of the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC), and surface kinetic energy on a time scale of 2-4 years. OBC and ATM were secondary factors contributing to the interannual variation of surface circulation. Interannual variation of ATM changed the separation latitude of EKWC and increased the variability of surface circulation in the Ulleung Basin. Interannual variation of OBC enhanced low-frequency changes in surface circulation and eddies in the Yamato Basin. It also modulated basin-wide uniform oscillations of sea level. This study suggests that precise estimation of initial conditions using data assimilation is essential for long-term prediction of surface circulation in the JES.

Inter-Annual Variability in Stream Water Temperature, Microclimate and Heat Exchanges: a Comparison of Forest and Moorland Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, G.; Hannah, D. M.; Malcolm, I.; Sadler, J. P.

2012-12-01

Riparian forest is recognised as important for moderating stream temperature variability and has the potential to mitigate thermal extremes in a changing climate. Previous research on the heat exchanges controlling water column temperature has often been short-term or seasonally-constrained, with the few multi-year studies limited to a maximum of two years. This study advances previous work by providing a longer-term perspective which allows assessment of inter-annual variability in stream temperature, microclimate and heat exchange dynamics between a semi-natural woodland and a moorland (no trees) reach of the Girnock Burn, a tributary of the Scottish Dee. Automatic weather stations collected 15-minute data over seven consecutive years, which to our knowledge is a unique data set in providing the longest term perspective to date on stream temperature, microclimate and heat exchange processes. Results for spring-summer indicate that the presence of a riparian canopy has a consistent effect between years in reducing the magnitude and variability of mean daily water column temperature and daily net energy totals. Differences in the magnitude and variability in net energy fluxes between the study reaches were driven primarily by fluctuations in net radiation and latent heat fluxes in response to between- and within-year variability in growth of the riparian forest canopy at the forest and prevailing weather conditions at both the forest and moorland. This research provides new insights on the inter-annual variability of stream energy exchanges for moorland and forested reaches under a wide range of climatological and hydrological conditions. The findings therefore provide a more robust process basis for modelling the impact of changes in forest practice and climate change on river thermal dynamics.

Analysis of the Relationship Between Climate and NDVI Variability at Global Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Fan-Wei; Collatz, G. James; Pinzon, Jorge; Ivanoff, Alvaro

2011-01-01

interannual variability in modeled (CASA) C flux is in part caused by interannual variability in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). This study confirms a mechanism producing variability in modeled NPP: -- NDVI (FPAR) interannual variability is strongly driven by climate; -- The climate driven variability in NDVI (FPAR) can lead to much larger fluctuation in NPP vs. the NPP computed from FPAR climatology

Validation of China-wide interpolated daily climate variables from 1960 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Wenping; Xu, Bing; Chen, Zhuoqi; Xia, Jiangzhou; Xu, Wenfang; Chen, Yang; Wu, Xiaoxu; Fu, Yang

2015-02-01

Temporally and spatially continuous meteorological variables are increasingly in demand to support many different types of applications related to climate studies. Using measurements from 600 climate stations, a thin-plate spline method was applied to generate daily gridded climate datasets for mean air temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation over China for the period 1961-2011. A comprehensive evaluation of interpolated climate was conducted at 150 independent validation sites. The results showed superior performance for most of the estimated variables. Except for wind speed, determination coefficients ( R 2) varied from 0.65 to 0.90, and interpolations showed high consistency with observations. Most of the estimated climate variables showed relatively consistent accuracy among all seasons according to the root mean square error, R 2, and relative predictive error. The interpolated data correctly predicted the occurrence of daily precipitation at validation sites with an accuracy of 83 %. Moreover, the interpolation data successfully explained the interannual variability trend for the eight meteorological variables at most validation sites. Consistent interannual variability trends were observed at 66-95 % of the sites for the eight meteorological variables. Accuracy in distinguishing extreme weather events differed substantially among the meteorological variables. The interpolated data identified extreme events for the three temperature variables, relative humidity, and sunshine duration with an accuracy ranging from 63 to 77 %. However, for wind speed, air pressure, and precipitation, the interpolation model correctly identified only 41, 48, and 58 % of extreme events, respectively. The validation indicates that the interpolations can be applied with high confidence for the three temperatures variables, as well as relative humidity and sunshine duration based on the performance of these variables in estimating daily variations, interannual variability, and extreme events. Although longitude, latitude, and elevation data are included in the model, additional information, such as topography and cloud cover, should be integrated into the interpolation algorithm to improve performance in estimating wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation.

Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes

Treesearch

Jakob Zscheischler; Simone Fatichi; Sebastian Wolf; Peter D. Blanken; Gil Bohrer; Ken Clark; Ankur R. Desai; David Hollinger; Trevor Keenan; Kimberly A. Novick; Sonia I. Seneviratne

2016-01-01

Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their...

SMOS reveals the signature of Indian Ocean Dipole events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durand, Fabien; Alory, Gaël; Dussin, Raphaël; Reul, Nicolas

2013-12-01

The tropical Indian Ocean experiences an interannual mode of climatic variability, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The signature of this variability in ocean salinity is hypothesized based on modeling and assimilation studies, on account of scanty observations. Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite has been designed to take up the challenge of sea surface salinity remote sensing. We show that SMOS data can be used to infer the pattern of salinity variability linked with the IOD events. The core of maximum variability is located in the central tropical basin, south of the equator. This region is anomalously salty during the 2010 negative IOD event, and anomalously fresh during the 2011 positive IOD event. The peak-to-peak anomaly exceeds one salinity unit, between late 2010 and late 2011. In conjunction with other observational datasets, SMOS data allow us to draw the salt budget of the area. It turns out that the horizontal advection is the main driver of salinity anomalies. This finding is confirmed by the analysis of the outputs of a numerical model. This study shows that the advent of SMOS makes it feasible the quantitative assessment of the mechanisms of ocean surface salinity variability in the tropical basins, at interannual timescales.

[Monitoring on spatial and temporal changes of snow cover in the Heilongjiang Basin based on remote sensing].

PubMed

Yu, Ling-Xue; Zhang, Shu-Wen; Guan, Cong; Yan, Feng-Qin; Yang, Chao-Bin; Bu, Kun; Yang, Jiu-Chun; Chang, Li-Ping

2014-09-01

This paper extracted and verified the snow cover extent in Heilongjiang Basin from 2003 to 2012 based on MODIS Aqua and Terra data, and the seasonal and interannual variations of snow cover extent were analyzed. The result showed that the double-star composite data reduced the effects of clouds and the overall accuracy was more than 91%, which could meet the research requirements. There existed significant seasonal variation of snow cover extent. The snow cover area was almost zero in July and August while in January it expanded to the maximum, which accounted for more than 80% of the basin. According to the analysis on the interannual variability of snow cover, the maximum winter snow cover areas in 2003-2004 and 2009-2010 (>180 x 10(4) km2) were higher than that of 2011 (150 x 10(4) km2). Meanwhile, there were certain correlations between the interannual fluctuations of snow cover and the changes of average annual temperature and precipitation. The year with the low snow cover was corresponding to less annual rainfall and higher average temperature, and vice versa. The spring snow cover showed a decreasing trend from 2003 to 2012, which was closely linked with decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature.

Consequences of neglecting the interannual variability of the solar resource: A case study of photovoltaic power among the Hawaiian Islands

DOE PAGES

Bryce, Richard; Losada Carreno, Ignacio; Kumler, Andrew; ...

2018-04-05

The interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions are often ignored in favor of single-year data sets for modeling power generation and evaluating the economic value of photovoltaic (PV) power systems. Yet interannual variability significantly impacts the generation from one year to another of renewable power systems such as wind and PV. Consequently, the interannual variability of power generation corresponds to the interannual variability of capital returns on investment. The penetration of PV systems within the Hawaiian Electric Companies' portfolio has rapidly accelerated in recent years and is expected to continue to increase given the state's energy objectivesmore » laid out by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative. We use the National Solar Radiation Database (1998-2015) to characterize the interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions across the State of Hawaii. These data sets are passed to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisory Model (SAM) to calculate an 18-year PV power generation data set to characterize the variability of PV power generation. We calculate the interannual coefficient of variability (COV) for annual average global horizontal irradiance (GHI) on the order of 2% and COV for annual capacity factor on the order of 3% across the Hawaiian archipelago. Regarding the interannual variability of seasonal trends, we calculate the COV for monthly average GHI values on the order of 5% and COV for monthly capacity factor on the order of 10%. We model residential-scale and utility-scale PV systems and calculate the economic returns of each system via the payback period and the net present value. We demonstrate that studies based on single-year data sets for economic evaluations reach conclusions that deviate from the true values realized by accounting for interannual variability.« less

Consequences of neglecting the interannual variability of the solar resource: A case study of photovoltaic power among the Hawaiian Islands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bryce, Richard; Losada Carreno, Ignacio; Kumler, Andrew

The interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions are often ignored in favor of single-year data sets for modeling power generation and evaluating the economic value of photovoltaic (PV) power systems. Yet interannual variability significantly impacts the generation from one year to another of renewable power systems such as wind and PV. Consequently, the interannual variability of power generation corresponds to the interannual variability of capital returns on investment. The penetration of PV systems within the Hawaiian Electric Companies' portfolio has rapidly accelerated in recent years and is expected to continue to increase given the state's energy objectivesmore » laid out by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative. We use the National Solar Radiation Database (1998-2015) to characterize the interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions across the State of Hawaii. These data sets are passed to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisory Model (SAM) to calculate an 18-year PV power generation data set to characterize the variability of PV power generation. We calculate the interannual coefficient of variability (COV) for annual average global horizontal irradiance (GHI) on the order of 2% and COV for annual capacity factor on the order of 3% across the Hawaiian archipelago. Regarding the interannual variability of seasonal trends, we calculate the COV for monthly average GHI values on the order of 5% and COV for monthly capacity factor on the order of 10%. We model residential-scale and utility-scale PV systems and calculate the economic returns of each system via the payback period and the net present value. We demonstrate that studies based on single-year data sets for economic evaluations reach conclusions that deviate from the true values realized by accounting for interannual variability.« less

Reduced El Niño-Southern Oscillation during the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Heather L.; Ravelo, A. Christina; Polissar, Pratigya J.

2015-01-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of global interannual variability, but its response to climate change is uncertain. Paleoclimate records from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provide insight into ENSO behavior when global boundary conditions (ice sheet extent, atmospheric partial pressure of CO2) were different from those today. In this work, we reconstruct LGM temperature variability at equatorial Pacific sites using measurements of individual planktonic foraminifera shells. A deep equatorial thermocline altered the dynamics in the eastern equatorial cold tongue, resulting in reduced ENSO variability during the LGM compared to the Late Holocene. These results suggest that ENSO was not tied directly to the east-west temperature gradient, as previously suggested. Rather, the thermocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific played a decisive role in the ENSO response to LGM climate.

Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperber, Kenneth R.; Participating AMIP Modelling Groups

1999-05-01

Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Participating AMIP Modelling Groups,; Sperber, Kenneth R.

Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Color Variability in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conaty, A. P.

2001-12-01

The South China Sea is a marginal sea in the Southeast Asian region whose surface circulation is driven by monsoons and whose surface currents have complex seasonal patterns. Its rich natural resources and strategic location have made its small islands areas of political dispute among the neighboring nations. This study aims to show the seasonal and interannual variability of sea surface temperature and ocean color in South China Sea. It makes use of NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data sets on sea surface temperature for the period 1981-2000 and NASA's Nimbus-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite data sets on pigment concentration (ocean color) for the period 1981-1996 and 1997-2000, respectively. Transect lines were drawn along several potential hotspot areas to show the variability in sea surface temperature and pigment concentration through time. In-situ data on sea surface temperature along South China Sea were likewise plotted to see the variability with time. Higher seasonal variability in sea surface temperature was seen at higher latitudes. Interannual variability was within 1-3 Kelvin. In most areas, pigment concentration was higher during northern hemisphere winter and autumn, after the monsoon rains, with a maximum of 30 milligrams per cubic meter.

Interannual Variability in the Position and Strength of the East Asian Jet Stream and Its Relation to Large - scale Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Duo; Zhang, Yang; Wu, Qigang

2013-04-01

East Asian Jet Stream (EASJ) is charactered by obvious interannual variability in strength and position (latitude), with wide impacts on East Asian climate in all seasons. In this study, two indices are established to measure the interannual variability in intensity and position of EAJS. Possible causing factors, including both local signals and non-local large-scale circulation, are examined using NCAP-NCAR reanalysis data to investigate their relations with jet variation. Our analysis shows that the relationship between the interannual variations of EASJ and these factors depends on seasons. In the summer, both the intensity and position of EASJ are closely related to the meridional gradient of local surface temperature, but display no apparent relationship with the larg-scale circulation. In cold seasons (autumn, winter and spring), both the local factor and the large-scale circulation, i.e. the Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), play important roles in the interannual variability of the jet intensity. The variability in the jet position, however, is more correlated to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), especially in winter. Diagnostic analysis indicates that transient eddy activity plays an important role in connecting the interannual variability of EASJ position with AO.

Influence of the Bermuda High on interannual variability of summertime ozone in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuxuan; Jia, Beixi; Wang, Sing-Chun; Estes, Mark; Shen, Lu; Xie, Yuanyu

2016-12-01

The Bermuda High (BH) quasi-permanent pressure system is the key large-scale circulation pattern influencing summertime weather over the eastern and southern US. Here we developed a multiple linear regression (MLR) model to characterize the effect of the BH on year-to-year changes in monthly-mean maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) metropolitan region during June, July, and August (JJA). The BH indicators include the longitude of the BH western edge (BH-Lon) and the BH intensity index (BHI) defined as the pressure gradient along its western edge. Both BH-Lon and BHI are selected by MLR as significant predictors (p < 0.05) of the interannual (1990-2015) variability of the HGB-mean ozone throughout JJA, while local-scale meridional wind speed is selected as an additional predictor for August only. Local-scale temperature and zonal wind speed are not identified as important factors for any summer month. The best-fit MLR model can explain 61-72 % of the interannual variability of the HGB-mean summertime ozone over 1990-2015 and shows good performance in cross-validation (R2 higher than 0.48). The BH-Lon is the most important factor, which alone explains 38-48 % of such variability. The location and strength of the Bermuda High appears to control whether or not low-ozone maritime air from the Gulf of Mexico can enter southeastern Texas and affect air quality. This mechanism also applies to other coastal urban regions along the Gulf Coast (e.g., New Orleans, LA, Mobile, AL, and Pensacola, FL), suggesting that the BH circulation pattern can affect surface ozone variability through a large portion of the Gulf Coast.

Variability in the Speed of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation as Observed by Aura/MLS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flury, Thomas; Wu, Dong L.; Read, W. G.

2013-01-01

We use Aura/MLS stratospheric water vapour (H2O) measurements as tracer for dynamics and infer interannual variations in the speed of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) from 2004 to 2011. We correlate one-year time series of H2O in the lower stratosphere at two subsequent pressure levels (68 hPa, approx.18.8 km and 56 hPa, approx 19.9 km at the Equator) and determine the time lag for best correlation. The same calculation is made on the horizontal on the 100 hPa (approx 16.6 km) level by correlating the H2O time series at the Equator with the ones at 40 N and 40 S. From these lag coefficients we derive the vertical and horizontal speeds of the BDC in the tropics and extra-tropics, respectively. We observe a clear interannual variability of the vertical and horizontal branch. The variability reflects signatures of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Our measurements confirm the QBO meridional circulation anomalies and show that the speed variations in the two branches of the BDC are out of phase and fairly well anti-correlated. Maximum ascent rates are found during the QBO easterly phase. We also find that transport of H2O towards the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is on the average two times faster than to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) with a mean speed of 1.15m/s at 100 hPa. Furthermore, the speed towards the NH shows much more interannual variability with an amplitude of about 21% whilst the speed towards the SH varies by only 10 %. An amplitude of 21% is also observed in the variability of the ascent rate at the Equator which is on the average 0.2mm/s.

Properties, formation, and dissipation of the North Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water and its impact on interannual spiciness anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katsura, Shota

2018-03-01

The properties, formation, and dissipation of the North Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (ESTMW), their interannual variability, and impact on spiciness anomalies in the upper permanent pycnocline were investigated using Argo profiling float data in 2005-2015. The core temperature and salinity of ESTMWs were horizontally compensated to a constant density, and core potential density concentrates in a range of 24.5-25.2 kg m-3 with two distinct peaks. ESTMWs showed different spatial distribution and persistence for its core potential density. Denser ESTMWs with a potential density of 24.9-25.2 kg m-3 were formed in winter mixed layer depth maximum centered at 30°N, 140°W and lighter ESTMWs of 24.5-24.9 kg m-3 were formed south and east of it. After formation through shoaling of the winter mixed layer, the former persisted until the following autumn and a small part of it subducted in winter, while the latter dissipated in summer. The formation region of ESTMW corresponded to the summer sea surface density maximum resulting from its poleward sea surface salinity front. Sea surface density maximum maintains weak stratification during summer, preconditioning the deepening of the winter mixed layer and hence the formation of ESTMWs. A relationship between the ESTMW formation region and the summer sea surface density maximum was also found in the North Atlantic and the South Pacific, implying the importance of sea surface salinity fronts and the associated summer sea surface density maximum to ESTMW formation. Interannual variations of ESTMW reflected that of the winter mixed layer in its formation region, and the thickness of ESTMW was related to the Pacific decadal oscillation. ESTMW contributed to the occurrence of spice injection and affected spiciness anomalies in the upper permanent pycnocline through its formation and dissipation.

Impact of interannual variability (1979-1986) of transport and temperature on ozone as computed using a two-dimensional photochemical model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jackman, C.H.; Douglass, A.R., Chandra, S.; Stolarski, R.S.

1991-03-20

Eight years of NMC (National Meteorological Center) temperature and SBUV (solar backscattered ultraviolet) ozone data were used to calculate the monthly mean heating rates and residual circulation for use in a two-dimensional photochemical model in order to examine the interannual variability of modeled ozone. Fairly good correlations were found in the interannual behavior of modeled and measured SBUV ozone in the upper stratosphere at middle to low latitudes, where temperature dependent photochemistry is thought to dominate ozone behavior. The calculated total ozone is found to be more sensitive to the interannual residual circulation changes than to the interannual temperature changes.more » The magnitude of the modeled ozone variability is similar to the observed variability, but the observed and modeled year to year deviations are mostly uncorrelated. The large component of the observed total ozone variability at low latitudes due to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is not seen in the modeled total ozone, as only a small QBO signal is present in the heating rates, temperatures, and monthly mean residual circulation. Large interanual changes in tropospheric dynamics are believed to influence the interannual variability in the total ozone, especially at middle and high latitudes. Since these tropospheric changes and most of the QBO forcing are not included in the model formulation, it is not surprising that the interannual variability in total ozione is not well represented in the model computations.« less

Linking interannual variability in shelf bottom water properties to the California Undercurrent and local processes in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, H. B.; Banas, N. S.; Hickey, B. M.; MacCready, P.

2016-02-01

The Pacific Northwest coast is an unusually productive area with a strong river influence and highly variable upwelling-favorable and downwelling-favorable winds, but recent trends in hypoxia and ocean acidification in this region are troubling to both scientists and the general public. A new ROMS hindcast model of this region makes possible a study of interannual variability. This study of the interannual temperature and salinity variability on the Pacific Northwest coast is conducted using a coastal hindcast model (43°N - 50°N) spanning 2002-2009 from the University of Washington Coastal Modeling Group, with a resolution of 1.5 km over the shelf and slope. Analysis of hindcast model results was used to assess the relative importance of source water variability, including the poleward California Undercurrent, local and remote wind forcing, winter wind-driven mixing, and river influence in explaining the interannual variations in the shelf bottom layer (40 - 80 m depth, 10 m thick) and over the slope (150 - 250 m depth, <100 km from shelf break) at each latitude within the model domain. Characterized through tracking of the fraction of Pacific Equatorial Water (PEW) relative to Pacific Subarctic Upper Water (PSUW) present on the slope, slope water properties at all latitudes varied little throughout the time series, with the largest variability due to patterns of large north-south advection of water masses over the slope. Over the time series, the standard deviation of slope temperature was 0.09 ˚C, while slope salinity standard deviation was 0.02 psu. Results suggest that shelf bottom water interannual variability is not driven primarily by interannual variability in slope water as shelf bottom water temperature and salinity vary nearly 10 times more than those over the slope. Instead, interannual variability in shelf bottom water properties is likely driven by other processes, such as local and remote wind forcing, and winter wind-driven mixing. The relative contributions of these processes to interannual variability in shelf bottom water properties will be addressed. Overall, these results highlight the importance of shelf processes relative to large-scale influences on the interannual timescale in particular. Implications for variability in hypoxia and ocean acidification impacts will be discussed.

Inter-Annual and Shorter-Term Variability in Physical and Biological Characteristics Across Barrow Canyon in August - September 2005-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashjian, C. J.; Okkonen, S. R.; Campbell, R. G.; Alatalo, P.

2014-12-01

Late summer physical and biological conditions along a 37-km transect crossing Barrow Canyon have been described for the past ten years as part of an ongoing program, supported by multiple funding sources including the NSF AON, focusing on inter-annual variability and the formation of a bowhead whale feeding hotspot near Barrow. These repeated transects (at least two per year, separated in time by days-weeks) provide an opportunity to assess the inter-annual and shorter term (days-weeks) changes in hydrographic structure, ocean temperature, current velocity and transport, chlorophyll fluorescence, nutrients, and micro- and mesozooplankton community composition and abundance. Inter-annual variability in all properties was high and was associated with larger scale, meteorological forcing. Shorter-term variability could also be high but was strongly influenced by changes in local wind forcing. The sustained sampling at this location provided critical measures of inter-annual variability that should permit detection of longer-term trends that are associated with ongoing climate change.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability in Antarctic Sea-Ice Dynamics, and Its Impact on Surface Fluxes and Water Mass Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drinkwater, Mark R.

1999-01-01

Strong seasonal and interannual signals in Antarctic bottom-water outflow remain unexplained yet are highly correlated with anomalies in net sea-ice growth in coastal polynyas. The mechanisms responsible for driving salination and replenishment and rejuvenation of the dense shelf "source" waters likely also generate pulses of bottom water outflow. The objective of this research is to investigate time-scales of variability in the dynamics of sea-ice in the Southern Ocean in order to determine the primary sites for production of dense shelf waters. We are using a merged satellite/buoy sea-ice motion data set for the period 1978-present day to compute the dynamics of opening and closing of coastal polynyas over the continental shelf. The Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Model (OCCAM) ocean general circulation model with coupled sea-ice dynamics is presently forced using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data to simulate fluxes and the salination impact of the ocean shelf regions. This work is relevant in the context of measuring the influence of polar sea-ice dynamics upon polar ocean characteristics, and thereby upon global thermohaline ocean circulation. Interannual variability in simulated net freezing rate in the Southern Weddell Sea is shown for the period 1986-1993. There is a pronounced maximum of ice production in 1988 and minimum in 1991 in response to anomalies in equatorward meridional wind velocity. This follows a similar approximate 8-year interannual cycle in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and satellite-derived ice-edge anomalies reported elsewhere as the "Antarctic Circumpolar Wave." The amplitude of interannual fluctuations in annual net ice production are about 40% of the mean value, implying significant interannual variance in brine rejection and upper ocean heat loss. Southward anomalies in wind stress induce negative anomalies in open water production, which are observed in passive microwave satellite images. Thus, cycles of enhanced poleward wind stress reduce ice growth by compacting the ice along the coastline and closing open water in leads and polynyas. Model simulations confirm that years of low ice production, such as 1991, coincide with years of lower than normal bottom water outflow. Future plans include the assimilation of satellite ice concentrations and ice drift dynamics to more accurately constrain boundary conditions in the model.

[Temporal change in annual air temperature and heat island effect in a coastal city and an inland city at mid-latitude in China during 1956-1998].

PubMed

Chao, Lu-men; Sun, Jian-xin

2009-12-01

Temporal changes in air temperature and urban heat island (UHI) effects during 1956-1998 were compared between a coastal city, Ji' nan, and an inland city, Xi' an, which were similar in latitude, size and development. During 1956-1978, except that the annual mean minimum temperature in Ji' nan increased by 0.37 degrees C x 10 a(-1), the temperature variables in the two cities did not display any apparent trend. During 1979-1998, all temperature variables of the two cities showed an increasing trend. Comparing with that in Ji' nan, the increasing rate of annual mean maximum temperature and annual mean temperature in Xi' an was greater, but that of annual mean minimum temperature was smaller. In the two cities, heat island effect occurred during 1956-1978 but without any apparent trend, whereas during 1979-1998, this effect increased with time, especially in Xi' an where the annual mean minimum temperature and annual mean temperature increased by 0.22 degrees C x 10 a(-1) and 0.32 degrees C x 10 a(-1), respectively. Both the level and the inter-annual variation of the heat island effect were much greater in Ji' nan than in Xi' an, but the increasing rate of this effect was greater in Xi' an than in Ji' nan. Obvious differences were observed in the increasing rate of annual mean maximum air temperature, annual mean air temperature, and annual mean minimum temperature as well as the heat island effect in Ji' nan, whereas negligible differences were found in Xi' an. Among the three temperature variables, annual mean minimum temperature displayed the most obvious increasing trend and was most affected by heat island effect, while annual mean maximum temperature was most variable inter-annually. Geographical location not only affected the magnitude of urban warming, but also affected the mode of urban warming and the strength of heat island effect.

Seasonal divergence in the interannual responses of Northern Hemisphere vegetation activity to variations in diurnal climate.

PubMed

Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Liang, Eryuan; Beck, Pieter S A; Huang, Yongmei

2016-01-11

Seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the daytime and nighttime climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is well documented, but its consequences for vegetation activity remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the interannual responses of vegetation activity to variations of seasonal mean daytime and nighttime climate in NH (>30 °N) during the past decades using remote sensing retrievals, FLUXNET and tree ring data. Despite a generally significant and positive response of vegetation activity to seasonal mean maximum temperature (Tmax) in ~22-25% of the boreal (>50 °N) NH between spring and autumn, spring-summer progressive water limitations appear to decouple vegetation activity from the mean summer Tmax, particularly in climate zones with dry summers. Drought alleviation during autumn results in vegetation recovery from the marked warming-induced drought limitations observed in spring and summer across 24-26% of the temperate NH. Vegetation activity exhibits a pervasively negative correlation with the autumn mean minimum temperature, which is in contrast to the ambiguous patterns observed in spring and summer. Our findings provide new insights into how seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the mean daytime and nighttime climate interacts with water limitations to produce spatiotemporally variable responses of vegetation growth.

Seasonal divergence in the interannual responses of Northern Hemisphere vegetation activity to variations in diurnal climate

PubMed Central

Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Liang, Eryuan; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Huang, Yongmei

2016-01-01

Seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the daytime and nighttime climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is well documented, but its consequences for vegetation activity remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the interannual responses of vegetation activity to variations of seasonal mean daytime and nighttime climate in NH (>30 °N) during the past decades using remote sensing retrievals, FLUXNET and tree ring data. Despite a generally significant and positive response of vegetation activity to seasonal mean maximum temperature () in ~22–25% of the boreal (>50 °N) NH between spring and autumn, spring-summer progressive water limitations appear to decouple vegetation activity from the mean summer , particularly in climate zones with dry summers. Drought alleviation during autumn results in vegetation recovery from the marked warming-induced drought limitations observed in spring and summer across 24–26% of the temperate NH. Vegetation activity exhibits a pervasively negative correlation with the autumn mean minimum temperature, which is in contrast to the ambiguous patterns observed in spring and summer. Our findings provide new insights into how seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the mean daytime and nighttime climate interacts with water limitations to produce spatiotemporally variable responses of vegetation growth. PMID:26751166

Interannual to decadal variability of circulation in the northern Japan/East Sea, 1958-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepanov, Dmitry; Stepanova, Victoriia; Gusev, Anatoly

2015-04-01

We use a numerical ocean model INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) and atmospheric forcing data extracted from the CORE (Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiments) dataset and reconstruct a circulation in the Japan/East Sea (JES) from 1958 to 2006 and its interannual and decadal variability in the intermediate and abyssal layers in the northern JES. It is founded that the circulation is cyclonic over the course of a climatological year. The circulation increases in spring and decreases in autumn. We analyzes the relative vorticity (RV) averaged over the Japan Basin (JB) and show that the variability is characterized by the interannual oscillations (2.3, 3.7 and 4.7 years) and decadal variability (9.5 and 14.3 years). The spectrum structure of the average RV variability does not change with depth; however, the energy of the decadal oscillations decreases in contrast to that of the interannual oscillations. We analyze monthly anomalies of the wind stress curl and sensible heat flux and reveal that interannual variability (3-4 years) of the circulation over the JB result from 4-year variability of the wind stress curl. In contrast, the decadal variability (period of 9.5 years) of the circulation over the JB is generated by both the wind stress curl and the decadal variability in deep convection.

North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part II: Inter-annual to decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Steve G.; Kim, Who M.; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne; Bleck, Rainer; Böning, Claus; Bozec, Alexandra; Canuto, Vittorio M.; Cassou, Christophe; Chassignet, Eric; Coward, Andrew C.; Danilov, Sergey; Diansky, Nikolay; Drange, Helge; Farneti, Riccardo; Fernandez, Elodie; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Forget, Gael; Fujii, Yosuke; Griffies, Stephen M.; Gusev, Anatoly; Heimbach, Patrick; Howard, Armando; Ilicak, Mehmet; Jung, Thomas; Karspeck, Alicia R.; Kelley, Maxwell; Large, William G.; Leboissetier, Anthony; Lu, Jianhua; Madec, Gurvan; Marsland, Simon J.; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio; Nurser, A. J. George; Pirani, Anna; Romanou, Anastasia; Salas y Mélia, David; Samuels, Bonita L.; Scheinert, Markus; Sidorenko, Dmitry; Sun, Shan; Treguier, Anne-Marie; Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Uotila, Petteri; Valcke, Sophie; Voldoire, Aurore; Wang, Qiang; Yashayaev, Igor

2016-01-01

Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958-2007 period from twenty global ocean - sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958-2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include the influence of ocean dynamics from nature superimposed onto anthropogenic effects. Despite these general agreements, there are many differences among the model solutions, particularly in the spatial structures of variability patterns. For example, the location of the maximum AMOC variability differs among the models between Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

North Atlantic Simulations in Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments Phase II (CORE-II) . Part II; Inter-Annual to Decadal Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Steve G.; Kim, Who M.; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne; Bleck, Rainer; Boening, Claus; Bozec, Alexandra;

Interannual Variability of Snow and Ice and Impact on the Carbon Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Yuk L.

2004-01-01

The goal of this research is to assess the impact of the interannual variability in snow/ice using global satellite data sets acquired in the last two decades. This variability will be used as input to simulate the CO2 interannual variability at high latitudes using a biospheric model. The progress in the past few years is summarized as follows: 1) Albedo decrease related to spring snow retreat; 2) Observed effects of interannual summertime sea ice variations on the polar reflectance; 3) The Northern Annular Mode response to Arctic sea ice loss and the sensitivity of troposphere-stratosphere interaction; 4) The effect of Arctic warming and sea ice loss on the growing season in northern terrestrial ecosystem.

Effects of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of evapotranspiration in a coniferous plantation in subtropical China.

PubMed

Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui

2014-01-01

Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003-2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003-2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May-June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation.

Effects of Climatic Factors and Ecosystem Responses on the Inter-Annual Variability of Evapotranspiration in a Coniferous Plantation in Subtropical China

PubMed Central

Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui

2014-01-01

Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003–2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003–2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May–June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation. PMID:24465610

ENSO Modulations due to Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating in the Tropical Pacific

PubMed Central

Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Kang, Xianbiao; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Zhanggui; Feng, Licheng

2015-01-01

Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other. PMID:26678931

Basinwide response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to interannual wind forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jian

2017-12-01

An eddy-resolving Ocean general circulation model For the Earth Simulator (OFES) and a simple wind-driven two-layer model are used to investigate the role of momentum fluxes in driving the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability throughout the Atlantic basin from 1950 to 2010. Diagnostic analysis using the OFES results suggests that interior baroclinic Rossby waves and coastal topographic waves play essential roles in modulating the AMOC interannual variability. The proposed mechanisms are verified in the context of a simple two-layer model with realistic topography and only forced by surface wind. The topographic waves communicate high-latitude anomalies into lower latitudes and account for about 50% of the AMOC interannual variability in the subtropics. In addition, the large scale Rossby waves excited by wind forcing together with topographic waves set up coherent AMOC interannual variability patterns across the tropics and subtropics. The comparisons between the simple model and OFES results suggest that a large fraction of the AMOC interannual variability in the Atlantic basin can be explained by wind-driven dynamics.

Interannual variability in phytoplankton pigment distribution during the spring transition along the west coast of North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, A. C.; Strub, P. T.

1989-01-01

A 5-year time series of coastal zone color scanner imagery (1980-1983, 1986) is used to examine changes in the large-scale pattern of chlorophyll pigment concentration coincident with the spring transition in winds and currents along the west coast of North America. The data show strong interannual variability in the timing and spatial patterns of pigment concentration at the time of the transition event. Interannual variability in the response of pigment concentration to the spring transition appears to be a function of spatial and temporal variability in vertical nutrient flux induced by wind mixing and/or the upwelling initiated at the time of the transition. Interannual differences in the mixing regime are illustrated with a one-dimensional mixing model.

Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes

DOE PAGES

Zscheischler, Jakob; Fatichi, Simone; Wolf, Sebastian; ...

2016-08-08

Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their explanatory power is limited and uncertainties remain as to their relative contributions. Recent results show that the annual count of hours where evapotranspiration (ET) is larger than its 95th percentile is strongly correlated with the annual variability of ET and gross primary production (GPP) in an ecosystem model. This suggests that the occurrence ofmore » favorable conditions has a strong influence on the annual carbon budget. Here we analyzed data from eight forest sites of the AmeriFlux network with at least 7 years of continuous measurements. We show that for ET and the carbon fluxes GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and net ecosystem production, counting the “most active hours/days” (i.e., hours/days when the flux exceeds a high percentile) correlates well with the respective annual sums, with correlation coefficients generally larger than 0.8. Phenological transitions have much weaker explanatory power. By exploiting the relationship between most active hours and interannual variability, we classify hours as most active or less active and largely explain interannual variability in ecosystem fluxes, particularly for GPP and RE. Our results suggest that a better understanding and modeling of the occurrence of large values in high-frequency ecosystem fluxes will result in a better understanding of interannual variability of these fluxes.« less

Physical associations to spring phytoplankton biomass interannual variability in the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saba, Vincent S.; Hyde, Kimberly J. W.; Rebuck, Nathan D.; Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Kahru, Mati; Fogarty, Michael J.

2015-02-01

The continental shelf of the Northeast United States and Nova Scotia is a productive marine ecosystem that supports a robust biomass of living marine resources. Understanding marine ecosystem sensitivity to changes in the physical environment can start with the first-order response of phytoplankton (i.e., chlorophyll a), the base of the marine food web. However, the primary physical associations to the interannual variability of chlorophyll a in these waters are unclear. Here we used ocean color satellite measurements and identified the local and remote physical associations to interannual variability of spring surface chlorophyll a from 1998 to 2013. The highest interannual variability of chlorophyll a occurred in March and April on the northern flank of Georges Bank, the western Gulf of Maine, and Nantucket Shoals. Complex interactions between winter wind speed over the Shelf, local winter water levels, and the relative proportions of Atlantic versus Labrador Sea source waters entering the Gulf of Maine from the previous summer/fall were associated with the variability of March/April chlorophyll a in Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine. Sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity were not robust correlates to spring chlorophyll a. Surface nitrate in the winter was not a robust correlate to chlorophyll a or the physical variables in every case suggesting that nitrate limitation may not be the primary constraint on the interannual variability of the spring bloom throughout all regions. Generalized linear models suggest that we can resolve 88% of March chlorophyll a interannual variability in Georges Bank using lagged physical data.

Interannual variation of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from a combined analysis of satellite gravimetry and altimetry data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mémin, A.; Flament, T.; Alizier, B.; Watson, C.; Rémy, F.

2015-07-01

Assessment of the long term mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and thus the determination of its contribution to sea level rise, requires an understanding of interannual variability and associated causal mechanisms. We performed a combined analysis of surface-mass and elevation changes using data from the GRACE and Envisat satellite missions, respectively. Using empirical orthogonal functions and singular value decompositions of each data set, we find a quasi 4.7-yr periodic signal between 08/2002 and 10/2010 that accounts for ∼ 15- 30% of the time variability of the filtered and detrended surface-mass and elevation data. Computation of the density of this variable mass load corresponds to snow or uncompacted firn. Changes reach maximum amplitude within the first 100 km from the coast where it contributes up to 30-35% of the annual rate of accumulation. Extending the analysis to 09/2014 using surface-mass changes only, we have found anomalies with a periodicity of about 4-6 yrs that circle the AIS in about 9-10 yrs. These properties connect the observed anomalies to the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) which is known to affect several key climate variables, including precipitation. It suggests that variability in the surface-mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may also be modulated by the ACW.

Mars dust storms - Interannual variability and chaos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingersoll, Andrew P.; Lyons, James R.

1993-01-01

The hypothesis is that the global climate system, consisting of atmospheric dust interacting with the circulation, produces its own interannual variability when forced at the annual frequency. The model has two time-dependent variables representing the amount of atmospheric dust in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Absorption of sunlight by the dust drives a cross-equatorial Hadley cell that brings more dust into the heated hemisphere. The circulation decays when the dust storm covers the globe. Interannual variability manifests itself either as a periodic solution in which the period is a multiple of the Martian year, or as an aperiodic (chaotic) solution that never repeats. Both kinds of solution are found in the model, lending support to the idea that interannual variability is an intrinsic property of the global climate system. The next step is to develop a hierarchy of dust-circulation models capable of being integrated for many years.

Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

2016-01-01

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

On which timescales do gas transfer velocities control North Atlantic CO2 flux variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couldrey, Matthew; Oliver, Kevin; Yool, Andrew; Halloran, Paul; Achterberg, Eric

2016-04-01

The North Atlantic is an important basin for the global ocean's uptake of anthropogenic and natural carbon dioxide (CO2), but the mechanisms controlling this carbon flux are not fully understood. The air-sea flux of CO2, F, is the product of a gas transfer velocity, k, the air-sea CO2concentration gradient, ΔpCO2, and the temperature and salinity-dependent solubility coefficient, α. k is difficult to constrain, representing the dominant uncertainty in F on short (instantaneous to interannual) timescales. Previous work shows that in the North Atlantic, ΔpCO2and k both contribute significantly to interannual F variability, but that k is unimportant for multidecadal variability. On some timescale between interannual and multidecadal, gas transfer velocity variability and its associated uncertainty become negligible. Here, we quantify this critical timescale for the first time. Using an ocean model, we determine the importance of k, ΔpCO2and α on a range of timescales. On interannual and shorter timescales, both ΔpCO2and k are important controls on F. In contrast, pentadal to multidecadal North Atlantic flux variability is driven almost entirely by ΔpCO2; k contributes less than 25%. Finally, we explore how accurately one can estimate North Atlantic F without a knowledge of non-seasonal k variability, finding it possible for interannual and longer timescales. These findings suggest that continued efforts to better constrain gas transfer velocities are necessary to quantify interannual variability in the North Atlantic carbon sink. However, uncertainty in k variability is unlikely to limit the accuracy of estimates of longer term flux variability.

On which timescales do gas transfer velocities control North Atlantic CO2 flux variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couldrey, Matthew P.; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Yool, Andrew; Halloran, Paul R.; Achterberg, Eric P.

2016-05-01

The North Atlantic is an important basin for the global ocean's uptake of anthropogenic and natural carbon dioxide (CO2), but the mechanisms controlling this carbon flux are not fully understood. The air-sea flux of CO2, F, is the product of a gas transfer velocity, k, the air-sea CO2 concentration gradient, ΔpCO2, and the temperature- and salinity-dependent solubility coefficient, α. k is difficult to constrain, representing the dominant uncertainty in F on short (instantaneous to interannual) timescales. Previous work shows that in the North Atlantic, ΔpCO2 and k both contribute significantly to interannual F variability but that k is unimportant for multidecadal variability. On some timescale between interannual and multidecadal, gas transfer velocity variability and its associated uncertainty become negligible. Here we quantify this critical timescale for the first time. Using an ocean model, we determine the importance of k, ΔpCO2, and α on a range of timescales. On interannual and shorter timescales, both ΔpCO2 and k are important controls on F. In contrast, pentadal to multidecadal North Atlantic flux variability is driven almost entirely by ΔpCO2; k contributes less than 25%. Finally, we explore how accurately one can estimate North Atlantic F without a knowledge of nonseasonal k variability, finding it possible for interannual and longer timescales. These findings suggest that continued efforts to better constrain gas transfer velocities are necessary to quantify interannual variability in the North Atlantic carbon sink. However, uncertainty in k variability is unlikely to limit the accuracy of estimates of longer-term flux variability.

On which timescales do gas transfer velocities control North Atlantic CO2 flux variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couldrey, M.; Oliver, K. I. C.; Yool, A.; Halloran, P. R.; Achterberg, E. P.

2016-02-01

The North Atlantic is an important basin for the global ocean's uptake of anthropogenic and natural carbon dioxide (CO2), but the mechanisms controlling this carbon flux are not fully understood. The air-sea flux of CO2, F, is the product of a gas transfer velocity, k, the air-sea CO2 concentration gradient, ΔpCO2, and the temperature and salinity-dependent solubility coefficient, α. k is difficult to constrain, representing the dominant uncertainty in F on short (instantaneous to interannual) timescales. Previous work shows that in the North Atlantic, ΔpCO2 and k both contribute significantly to interannual F variability, but that k is unimportant for multidecadal variability. On some timescale between interannual and multidecadal, gas transfer velocity variability and its associated uncertainty become negligible. Here, we quantify this critical timescale for the first time. Using an ocean model, we determine the importance of k, ΔpCO2 and α on a range of timescales. On interannual and shorter timescales, both ΔpCO2 and k are important controls on F. In contrast, pentadal to multidecadal North Atlantic flux variability is driven almost entirely by ΔpCO2; k contributes less than 25%. Finally, we explore how accurately one can estimate North Atlantic F without a knowledge of non-seasonal k variability, finding it possible for interannual and longer timescales. These findings suggest that continued efforts to better constrain gas transfer velocities are necessary to quantify interannual variability in the North Atlantic carbon sink. However, uncertainty in k variability is unlikely to limit the accuracy of estimates of longer term flux variability.

Low-Level Jets and Their Effects on the South American Summer Climate as Simulated by the NCEP Eta Model(.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vernekar, Anandu D.; Kirtman, Ben P.; Fennessy, Michael J.

2003-01-01

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Eta Model (80 km, 38L) is used to simulate the tropical South American summer (January-March) climate for 1983, 1985, 1987, 1989, and 1991 using lateral boundary conditions from the NCEP-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis. Simulations of the lower tropospheric circulation and precipitation are analyzed to study the variability on diurnal, intraseasonal, and interannual timescales. The results are compared with observations and previous studies.The Eta Model produces better regional circulation details, such as low-level jets (LLJs), than does the reanalysis because of its higher resolution, more realistic topography and coastal geometry, and because of its ability to realistically simulate the effects of mesoscale circulation on the time-mean flow. The model detects not only the LLJ east of the Andes Mountains and the LLJ west of northern Cordillera Occidental, which have been reported in previous studies, but it also detects three distinct LLJs just north of the equator embedded in the strong northeasterly trade winds over Colombia, Venezuela, and Guiana. All the LLJs show strong diurnal variability with a nocturnal maximum. The LLJ east of the Andes Mountains brings warm moist air from the Amazon basin to the Gran Chaco region where the jet exits. The moisture convergence in the jet exit region creates favorable conditions for precipitation. Hence, the precipitation over the region also shows strong diurnal variability with a nocturnal maximum. The LLJs just north of the equator bring moisture from the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the western Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Panama to their exit regions over the northern Amazon basin and west coasts of Colombia and Ecuador. The precipitation over these regions also has diurnal variability with a nocturnal maximum. The diurnal variability of precipitation over most of the Tropics has an afternoon rainfall maximum except for regions influenced by LLJs, which have a nocturnal rainfall maximum. The intraseasonal variability of the LLJs is episodic with an approximate period of 20 days. The interannual variability of the LLJs is dominated by the ENSO cycle. The LLJ east of the Andes Mountains is stronger in the warm phase of ENSO than in the cold phase. However, the model has some difficulty simulating the observed relationship between the strength of LLJ and precipitation, but the model succeeds in the case of LLJs just north of the equator. For example, these LLJs are weaker in the warm phase of ENSO than in the cold phase. Hence, during the warm (cold) phase of ENSO, dry (wet) conditions normally occur over the northern part of the Amazon basin, which is the exit region of these LLJs.

The contributions of local and remote atmospheric moisture fluxes to East Asian precipitation and its variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Liang; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew G.; Stephan, Claudia C.

2018-01-01

We investigate the contribution of the local and remote atmospheric moisture fluxes to East Asia (EA) precipitation and its interannual variability during 1979-2012. We use and expand the Brubaker et al. (J Clim 6:1077-1089,1993) method, which connects the area-mean precipitation to area-mean evaporation and the horizontal moisture flux into the region. Due to its large landmass and hydrological heterogeneity, EA is divided into five sub-regions: Southeast (SE), Tibetan Plateau (TP), Central East (CE), Northwest (NW) and Northeast (NE). For each region, we first separate the contributions to precipitation of local evaporation from those of the horizontal moisture flux by calculating the precipitation recycling ratio: the fraction of precipitation over a region that originates as evaporation from the same region. Then, we separate the horizontal moisture flux across the region's boundaries by direction. We estimate the contributions of the horizontal moisture fluxes from each direction, as well as the local evaporation, to the mean precipitation and its interannual variability. We find that the major contributors to the mean precipitation are not necessarily those that contribute most to the precipitation interannual variability. Over SE, the moisture flux via the southern boundary dominates the mean precipitation and its interannual variability. Over TP, in winter and spring, the moisture flux via the western boundary dominates the mean precipitation; however, variations in local evaporation dominate the precipitation interannual variability. The western moisture flux is the dominant contributor to the mean precipitation over CE, NW and NE. However, the southern or northern moisture flux or the local evaporation dominates the precipitation interannual variability over these regions, depending on the season. Potential mechanisms associated with interannual variability in the moisture flux are identified for each region. The methods and results presented in this study can be readily applied to model simulations, to identify simulation biases in precipitation that relate to the simulated moisture supplies and transport.

Sensitivity of the interannual variability of mineral aerosol simulations to meteorological forcing dataset

DOE PAGES

Smith, Molly B.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Albani, Samuel; ...

2017-03-07

Interannual variability in desert dust is widely observed and simulated, yet the sensitivity of these desert dust simulations to a particular meteorological dataset, as well as a particular model construction, is not well known. Here we use version 4 of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM4) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to simulate dust forced by three different reanalysis meteorological datasets for the period 1990–2005. We then contrast the results of these simulations with dust simulated using online winds dynamically generated from sea surface temperatures, as well as with simulations conducted using other modeling frameworks but the same meteorological forcings, in order tomore » determine the sensitivity of climate model output to the specific reanalysis dataset used. For the seven cases considered in our study, the different model configurations are able to simulate the annual mean of the global dust cycle, seasonality and interannual variability approximately equally well (or poorly) at the limited observational sites available. Altogether, aerosol dust-source strength has remained fairly constant during the time period from 1990 to 2005, although there is strong seasonal and some interannual variability simulated in the models and seen in the observations over this time period. Model interannual variability comparisons to observations, as well as comparisons between models, suggest that interannual variability in dust is still difficult to simulate accurately, with averaged correlation coefficients of 0.1 to 0.6. Because of the large variability, at least 1 year of observations at most sites are needed to correctly observe the mean, but in some regions, particularly the remote oceans of the Southern Hemisphere, where interannual variability may be larger than in the Northern Hemisphere, 2–3 years of data are likely to be needed.« less

Testing the Reconstruction Potential for North Pacific Circulation Anomalies inside the TraCE-21ka Paleoclimate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elison Timm, O.; Flamholtz, W. M.; Li, S.; Massa, C.; Beilman, D. W.

2016-12-01

The motivation for this study was sparked by the idea that paleoclimate temperature and precipitation proxies provide sufficient information to make inferences about extratropical atmospheric circulation changes over the North Pacific during the Holocene. Typical targets for the circulation reconstruction problem include the strength and position of the Aleutian Low and the storm tracks. The reconstruction problem was investigated under idealized conditions using model simulation results from the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/TraCE/), which covers the Last Glacial Maximum to present. It is demonstrated that modes of variability found on interannual to multidecadal timescales during the preindustrial era provide inadequate pattern for reconstructing long-term mean changes during the past 22,000 years. Our circulation reconstruction target was the geopotential height field at 500hPa (Z500) over the North Pacific Ocean during winter. We applied a field reconstruction method using Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA). The MCA was applied to Z500 and surface temperatures as predictor information. The MCA was given model data containing interannual to multidecadal variability from the pre-industrial climate (1000BP-900BP). We worked with ten leading MCA modes in the reconstruction, which can reproduce about 90% of the covariability during the preindustrial period. Within the model simulation, we validated the field reconstructions against the model's circulation states over the last 22,000 years. Spatial skill scores show that the reconstruction skill drops significantly prior to the late Holocene. Reasons for the loss of reconstruction skill are due to the fact that externally forced climate changes do not resemble the internal modes of variability and that covariance between circulation and temperatures on interannual-multidecadal time scales changes with the background climate state. However, the reconstruction can be improved by including data from the early Holocene and the LGM era in the MCA. Based on these results, we advocate that paleoclimate model simulation results should be used define a set of first-guess pattern for the reconstruction of circulation anomalies from sparse and noisy proxy data.

The Effect of the Interannual Variability of the OH Sink on the Interannual Variability of the Atmospheric Methane Mixing Ratio and Carbon Stable Isotope Composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillermo Nuñez Ramirez, Tonatiuh; Houweling, Sander; Marshall, Julia; Williams, Jason; Brailsford, Gordon; Schneising, Oliver; Heimann, Martin

2013-04-01

The atmospheric hydroxyl radical concentration (OH) varies due to changes in the incoming UV radiation, in the abundance of atmospheric species involved in the production, recycling and destruction of OH molecules and due to climate variability. Variability in carbon monoxide emissions from biomass burning induced by El Niño Southern Oscillation are particularly important. Although the OH sink accounts for the oxidation of approximately 90% of atmospheric CH4, the effect of the variability in the distribution and strength of the OH sink on the interannual variability of atmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratio and stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C-CH4) has often been ignored. To show this effect we simulated the atmospheric signals of CH4 in a three-dimensional atmospheric transport model (TM3). ERA Interim reanalysis data provided the atmospheric transport and temperature variability from 1990 to 2010. We performed simulations using time dependent OH concentration estimations from an atmospheric chemistry transport model and an atmospheric chemistry climate model. The models assumed a different set of reactions and algorithms which caused a very different strength and distribution of the OH concentration. Methane emissions were based on published bottom-up estimates including inventories, upscaled estimations and modeled fluxes. The simulations also included modeled concentrations of atomic chlorine (Cl) and excited oxygen atoms (O(1D)). The isotopic signal of the sources and the fractionation factors of the sinks were based on literature values, however the isotopic signal from wetlands and enteric fermentation processes followed a linear relationship with a map of C4 plant fraction. The same set of CH4emissions and stratospheric reactants was used in all simulations. Two simulations were done per OH field: one in which the CH4 sources were allowed to vary interannually, and a second where the sources were climatological. The simulated mixing ratios and isotopic compositions at global reference stations were used to construct more robust indicators such as global and zonal means and interhemispheric differences. We also compared the model CH4 mixing ratio to satellite observations, for the period 2003 to 2004 with SCIAMACHY and from 2009 to 2010 with GOSAT. The interannual variability of the different OH fields imprinted an interannual variation of the atmospheric CH4 mixing ratio with a magnitude of ±10 ppb, which is comparable to the effect of all sources combined. Meanwhile its effect on the interannual variability of δ13C-CH4 was minor (< 10%). The interannual variability of the mixing ratio interhemispheric difference is dominated by the sources because the OH sink is concentrated in the tropics, thus its interannual variability affects both hemispheres. Meanwhile, although the OH plays an important role in the establishment of an interhemispheric gradient of δ13C-CH4, the interannual variation of this gradient is negligibly affected by the choice of OH field. Overall the study showed that the variability of the OH sink plays a significant role in the interannual variability of the atmospheric methane mixing ratio, and must be considered to improve our understanding of the recent trends in the global methane budget.

Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific region during the altimetry era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Quran; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu

2017-03-01

Previous studies have shown that regional sea level exhibits interannual and decadal variations associated with the modes of climate variability. A better understanding of those low-frequency sea level variations benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Nonetheless, the contributions of thermosteric, halosteric, and mass sea level components to sea level variability and trend patterns remain unclear. By focusing on signals associated with dominant climate modes in the Indo-Pacific region, we estimate the interannual and decadal fingerprints and trend of each sea level component utilizing a multivariate linear regression of two adjoint-based ocean reanalyses. Sea level interannual, decadal, and trend patterns primarily come from thermosteric sea level (TSSL). Halosteric sea level (HSSL) is of regional importance in the Pacific Ocean on decadal time scale and dominates sea level trends in the northeast subtropical Pacific. The compensation between TSSL and HSSL is identified in their decadal variability and trends. The interannual and decadal variability of temperature generally peak at subsurface around 100 m but that of salinity tend to be surface-intensified. Decadal temperature and salinity signals extend deeper into the ocean in some regions than their interannual equivalents. Mass sea level (MassSL) is critical for the interannual and decadal variability of sea level over shelf seas. Inconsistencies exist in MassSL trend patterns among various estimates. This study highlights regions where multiple processes work together to control sea level variability and change. Further work is required to better understand the interaction of different processes in those regions.

Decadal Variation of the Relationship between Western Pacific Subtropical High and Summer Heatwaves in East China Modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Q.; Fu, C.; Zhou, T.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the relationship between Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and summer heatwaves over Eastern China in interannual scale during the period of 1959-2016. Based on surface daily maximum temperature of 654 monitoring stations over China and meteorological variables in reanalysis data, we calculate the number of heatwave days (NHD) (one heatwave day was defined as one day with its daily maximum temperature greater than 35 degrees centigrade) as well as WPSH index and then examine their interannual relationship. Although the high-NHD-related 850hPa horizontal wind structure was shared by that of high WPSH and decaying El Niño summer, a decadal oscillation emerges for the correlation between interannual WPSH and NHD after removing their interdecadal variability by Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method. The correlation coefficient can reach up to as high as 0.69 and as low as 0.17 and assembles the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) pretty well. Compositing analysis demonstrates that unstable WPSH-NHD relationship is mainly attributed to the spatial structure distinction of WPSH and surface warming in the El Niño decaying summer of different PDO phases. In the El Niño decaying summer of positive PDO phases, remarkable enhanced warming over majority of Southeastern China matches well with the noticeable westward extension of WPSH, which seems to be forced by the cyclonic circulation anomaly over Japan. The warmer Pacific-Indian Ocean Warm Pool intensifies the Matsuno-Gill pattern over Maritime Continent, stimulating this cyclonic circulation anomaly via the northward propagation of Rossby wave. In the El Niño decaying summer of negative PDO phases, the cooler East China Sea enhances WPSH in North China and South China Sea, and thereby leads to a local cyclonic circulation anomaly over Eastern China, which would cause a large scope of cooling and out-of-phase WPSH-NHD relationship.

Heavy Metals in the Atmosphere over the Northern Coast of Eurasia: Interannual Variations in Winter and Summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinogradova, A. A.; Ivanova, Yu. A.

2017-12-01

Interannual variations in the level of anthropogenic contamination of the surface air in the northern areas of Russia are studied, which are related to a change in the direction of air mass transport. The transport of air and heavy metals to four sites located on territories of nature reserves on the coast of the Arctic Ocean (from the Kola Peninsula to a delta of the Lena River) in winter (January) and summer (July) is analyzed for 2000-2013. Indices of atmospheric circulation and data on the emission of pollutants into the atmosphere in cities and regions of Russia are involved in the analysis. Concentrations of seven heavy metals in the surface air are evaluated in the Arctic regions under study and their interannual, spatial, and seasonal variations are discussed. A strong interannual variability of atmospheric circulation differently influences the variations in the atmosphere contamination with different anthropogenic heavy metals in various areas of the north of Russia. The concentration ratios of heavy metals under study are different for each site in different years. The interannual and seasonal variations in the contamination level have maximum values for heavy metals arriving from most distant sources. Thus, the results of measuring the content of anthropogenic contaminants in the air of reference areas during one season or even one year should not serve a basis for longterm conclusions and forecasts. It would be also unjustified to make general conclusions on the contamination level of the environment from observation results for only one contaminant and/or only at a single site.

Impact of interannual variability (1979-1986) of transport and temperature on ozone as computed using a two-dimensional photochemical model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H.; Douglass, Anne R.; Chandra, Sushil; Stolarski, Richard S.; Rosenfield, Joan E.; Kaye, Jack A.

1991-01-01

Values of the monthly mean heating rates and the residual circulation characteristics were calculated using NMC data for temperature and the solar backscattered UV ozone for the period between 1979 and 1986. The results were used in a two-dimensional photochemical model in order to examine the effects of temperature and residual circulation on the interannual variability of ozone. It was found that the calculated total ozone was more sensitive to variations in interannual residual circulation than in the interannual temperature. The magnitude of the modeled ozone variability was found to be similar to the observed variability, but the observed and modeled year-to-year deviations were, for the most part, uncorrelated, due to the fact that the model did not account for most of the QBO forcing and for some of the observed tropospheric changes.

Impacts of wildfires on interannual trends in land surface phenology: an investigation of the Hayman Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jianmin; Zhang, Xiaoyang

2017-05-01

Land surface phenology (LSP) derived from satellite data has been widely associated with recent global climate change. However, LSP is frequently influenced by land disturbances, which significantly limits our understanding of the phenological trends driven by climate change. Because wildfire is one of the most significant disturbance agents, we investigated the influences of wildfire on the start of growing season (SOS) and the interannual trends of SOS in the Hayman Fire area that occurred in 2002 in Colorado using time series of daily MODIS data (2001-2014). Results show that the Hayman Fire advanced the area-integrated SOS by 15.2 d and converted SOS from a delaying trend of 3.9 d/decade to an advancing trend of -1.9 d/decade during 2001-2014. The fire impacts on SOS increased from low burn severity to high burn severity. Moreover, the rate of increase of annual maximum and minimum EVI2 from 2003-2014 reflects that vegetation greenness could recover to pre-fire status in 2022 and 2053, respectively, which suggests that the fire impacts on the satellite-derived SOS variability and the interannual trends should continue in the next few decades.

An assessment of precipitation and surface air temperature over China by regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xueyuan; Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu

2016-12-01

An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interannual variability, linear trends, and extremes are examined, with focus on precipitation and near surface air temperature. The models are able to reproduce the basic features of the observed summer mean precipitation and temperature over China and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. Overall, the model performance is better for temperature than that of precipitation. The models reasonably grasp the major anomalies and standard deviations over China and the five subregions studied. The models generally reproduce the spatial pattern of high interannual variability over wet regions, and low variability over the dry regions. The models also capture well the variable temperature gradient increase to the north by latitude. Both the observed and simulated linear trend of precipitation shows a drying tendency over the Yangtze River Basin and wetting over South China. The models capture well the relatively small temperature trends in large areas of China. The models reasonably simulate the characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of heavy rain days and heavy precipitation fraction. Most of the models also performed well in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China.

Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a temperate mountain grassland: effects of climate and management.

PubMed

Wohlfahrt, Georg; Hammerle, Albin; Haslwanter, Alois; Bahn, Michael; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Cernusca, Alexander

2008-04-27

The role and relative importance of climate and cutting for the seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO 2 (NEE) of a temperate mountain grassland was investigated. Eddy covariance CO 2 flux data and associated measurements of the green area index and the major environmental driving forces acquired during 2001-2006 at the study site Neustift (Austria) were analyzed. Driven by three cutting events per year which kept the investigated grassland in a stage of vigorous growth, the seasonal variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP). The role of environmental parameters in modulating the seasonal variability of NEE was obscured by the strong response of GPP to changes in the amount of green area, as well as the cutting-mediated decoupling of phenological development and the seasonal course of climate drivers. None of the climate and management metrics examined was able to explain the inter-annual variability of annual NEE. This is thought to result from (1) a high covariance between GPP and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) at the annual time scale which results in a comparatively small inter-annual variation of NEE, (2) compensating effects between carbon exchange during and outside the management period, and (3) changes in the biotic response to rather than the climate variables per se. GPP was more important in modulating inter-annual variations in NEE in spring and before the first and second cut, while R eco explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variability of NEE during the remaining, in particular the post-cut, periods.

Coupling of Indian and East Asian Monsoon Precipitation in July-August

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. A.; Fung, I. Y.; Risi, C. M.

2014-12-01

Recent work suggests that summer rainfall in the Indian and East Asian monsoons results from different mechanisms. The onset of intense convection in India is mediated by Hadley Cell transitions, whereas frontal rainfall in China (most notably during Meiyu season in June) arises from forced meridional convergence and zonal heat transport in the wake of the Tibetan Plateau. However, the leading mode of July-August interannual rainfall variability for All-Asia (defined as the region within 68E-140E and 5N-45N) demonstrates a statistically significant coupling between monthly anomalies in India and China. In particular, positive anomalies along the Himalayan Foothills are associated with positive anomalies along the Yangtze River, and also with negative anomalies over central India and northern and southern China. The entire pattern reverses in dry years over the Himalayan Foothills. This coupling is not significantly correlated with ENSO, the leading mode of global interannual variability. We propose that a channel of moisture transport links the Bay of Bengal to the Yangtze River valley across the high terrain of the Yunnan Plateau, on the southeast edge of the Tibetan Plateau. This channel only activates in July, when the maximum of moist static energy (MSE) shifts to land, and weakens in September with the cooling of Bay of Bengal SST. Our mechanism is substantiated by analysis of output from the LMDZ5 model, which includes a high-resolution nested grid nudged to reanalysis, improving the simulation of the Indian Monsoon and performance near high topography. Potential changes in moisture transport across the Yunnan Plateau under 21st century warming conditions may lead to modified interannual variability of Asian rainfall.

Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns.

PubMed

Iglesias, Isabel; Lorenzo, M Nieves; Lázaro, Clara; Fernandes, M Joana; Bastos, Luísa

2017-12-31

Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993-2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and temporal scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variability of interhemispheric transport times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xiaokang; Yang, Huang; Waugh, Darryn W.; Orbe, Clara; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

2018-05-01

The seasonal and interannual variability of transport times from the northern midlatitude surface into the Southern Hemisphere is examined using simulations of three idealized age tracers: an ideal age tracer that yields the mean transit time from northern midlatitudes and two tracers with uniform 50- and 5-day decay. For all tracers the largest seasonal and interannual variability occurs near the surface within the tropics and is generally closely coupled to movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). There are, however, notable differences in variability between the different tracers. The largest seasonal and interannual variability in the mean age is generally confined to latitudes spanning the ITCZ, with very weak variability in the southern extratropics. In contrast, for tracers subject to spatially uniform exponential loss the peak variability tends to be south of the ITCZ, and there is a smaller contrast between tropical and extratropical variability. These differences in variability occur because the distribution of transit times from northern midlatitudes is very broad and tracers with more rapid loss are more sensitive to changes in fast transit times than the mean age tracer. These simulations suggest that the seasonal-interannual variability in the southern extratropics of trace gases with predominantly NH midlatitude sources may differ depending on the gases' chemical lifetimes.

MECHANISMS OF CONVECTION-INDUCED MODULATION OF PASSIVE TRACER INTERHEMISPHERIC TRANSPORT INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY

EPA Science Inventory

Interannual variations of tropical convection impact atmospheric circulation and influence year-to-year variations of the transport of trace constituents in the troposphere. This study examines how two modes of convective variability-anomalous intensification and meridional disp...

Seasonal variability of water transport through the Straits of Gibraltar, Sicily and Corsica, derived from a high-resolution model of the Mediterranean circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Béranger, K.; Mortier, L.; Crépon, M.

2005-08-01

The variability of the water transport through three major straits of the Mediterranean Sea (Gibraltar, Sicily and Corsica) was investigated using a high-resolution model. This model of the Mediterranean circulation was developed in the context of the Mercator project. The region of interest is the western Mediterranean between the Strait of Gibraltar and the Strait of Sicily. The major water masses and the winter convection in the Gulf of Lions were simulated. The model reproduced the meso-scale and large-scale patterns of the circulation in very good agreement with recent observations. The western and the eastern gyres of the Alboran Sea were observed but high interannual variability was noticed. The Algerian Current splits into several branches at the longitude of the Strait of Sicily level, forming the Tyrrhenian branch, and, the Atlantic Ionian Stream and the Atlantic Tunisian Current in the eastern Mediterranean. The North Current retroflexed north of the Balearic Islands and a dome structure was observed in the Gulf of Lions. The cyclonic barotropic Algerian gyre, which was recently observed during the MATER and ELISA experiment, was evidenced in the simulation. From time-series of 10-day mean transport, the three straits presented a high variability at short time-scales. The transport was generally maximum, in April for the Strait of Gibraltar, in November for the Strait of Sicily, and in January for the Strait of Corsica. The amplitudes of the transport through the Straits of Gibraltar (0.11 Sv) and Sicily (0.30 Sv) presented a weaker seasonal variability than that of the Strait of Corsica (0.70 Sv). The study of the relation between transport and wind forcing showed that the transport through the Strait of Gibraltar is dependent on local zonal wind over short time-scales (70%), which was not the case for the other straits (less than 30%). The maximum (minimum) of the transport occurred for an eastward (westward) wind stress in the strait. An interannual event was noticed in November-December 2001, which corresponded to a very low transport (0.3 Sv), which was characterised by a cyclonic circulation in the western Alboran Sea. That circulation was also reproduced by the model for other periods than winter during the interannual simulation. The transport through the Strait of Sicily is not influenced by local wind. The wind stress curl of the northwestern Mediterranean influenced the transport through the Strait of Corsica.

Underestimated interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Yongjian; Song, Lianchun; Xiao, Ying; Du, Liangmin

2018-02-01

This study evaluates the performance of climate models in simulating the climatological mean and interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared to the observation, the interannual variability of EASR during 1979-2005 is underestimated by the CMIP5 with a range of 0.86 16.08%. Based on bias correction of CMIP5 simulations with historical data, the reliability of future projections will be enhanced. The corrected EASR under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 increases by 5.6 and 7.5% during 2081-2100 relative to the baseline of 1986-2005, respectively. After correction, the areas with both negative and positive anomalies decrease, which are mainly located in the South China Sea and central China, and southern China and west of the Philippines, separately. In comparison to the baseline, the interannual variability of EASR increases by 20.8% under RCP4.5 but 26.2% under RCP8.5 in 2006-2100, which is underestimated by 10.7 and 11.1% under both RCPs in the original CMIP5 simulation. Compared with the mean precipitation, the interannual variability of EASR is notably larger under global warming. Thus, the probabilities of floods and droughts may increase in the future.

Southern Hemisphere climate variability forced by Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, T. R.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Markle, B. R.; White, J. W. C.

2018-02-01

The presence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and reduced greenhouse gas concentrations during the Last Glacial Maximum fundamentally altered global ocean-atmosphere climate dynamics. Model simulations and palaeoclimate records suggest that glacial boundary conditions affected the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a dominant source of short-term global climate variability. Yet little is known about changes in short-term climate variability at mid- to high latitudes. Here we use a high-resolution water isotope record from West Antarctica to demonstrate that interannual to decadal climate variability at high southern latitudes was almost twice as large at the Last Glacial Maximum as during the ensuing Holocene epoch (the past 11,700 years). Climate model simulations indicate that this increased variability reflects an increase in the teleconnection strength between the tropical Pacific and West Antarctica, owing to a shift in the mean location of tropical convection. This shift, in turn, can be attributed to the influence of topography and albedo of the North American ice sheets on atmospheric circulation. As the planet deglaciated, the largest and most abrupt decline in teleconnection strength occurred between approximately 16,000 years and 15,000 years ago, followed by a slower decline into the early Holocene.

Microwave radiometer observations of interannual water vapor variability and vertical structure over a tropical station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renju, R.; Suresh Raju, C.; Mathew, Nizy; Antony, Tinu; Krishna Moorthy, K.

2015-05-01

The intraseasonal and interannual characteristics and the vertical distribution of atmospheric water vapor from the tropical coastal station Thiruvananthapuram (TVM) located in the southwestern region of the Indian Peninsula are examined from continuous multiyear, multifrequency microwave radiometer profiler (MRP) measurements. The accuracy of MRP for precipitable water vapor (PWV) estimation, particularly during a prolonged monsoon period, has been demonstrated by comparing with the PWV derived from collocated GPS measurements based on regression model between PWV and GPS wet delay component which has been developed for TVM station. Large diurnal and intraseasonal variations of PWV are observed during winter and premonsoon seasons. There is large interannual PWV variability during premonsoon, owing to frequent local convection and summer thunderstorms. During monsoon period, low interannual PWV variability is attributed to the persistent wind from the ocean which brings moisture to this coastal station. However, significant interannual humidity variability is seen at 2 to 6 km altitude, which is linked to the monsoon strength over the station. Prior to monsoon onset over the station, the specific humidity increases up to 5-10 g/kg in the altitude region above 5 km and remains consistently so throughout the active spells.

The Potential for Predicting Precipitation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, R. D.

1999-01-01

The ability to predict precipitation several months in advance would have a significant impact on water resource management. This talk provides an overview of a project aimed at developing this prediction capability. NASA's Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) will generate seasonal-to-interannual sea surface temperature predictions through detailed ocean circulation modeling and will then translate these SST forecasts into forecasts of continental precipitation through the application of an atmospheric general circulation model and a "SVAT"-type land surface model. As part of the process, ocean variables (e.g., height) and land variables (e.g., soil moisture) will be updated regularly via data assimilation. The overview will include a discussion of the variability inherent in such a modeling system and will provide some quantitative estimates of the absolute upper limits of seasonal-to-interannual precipitation predictability.

Interannual variability of Indian Ocean subtropical mode water subduction rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jie; Lan, Jian

2017-06-01

The interannual variation of Indian Ocean subtropical mode water (IOSTMW) subduction rate in the Southwest Indian Ocean from 1980 to 2007 is investigated in this paper based on Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) outputs. Climatology of subduction rate exceeds 75 m/year in the IOSTMW formation area. The renewal time of permanent pycnocline water mass based on the subduction rate is calculated for each density class: 3-6 years for IOSTMW (25.8 < σ θ < 26.2 kg m-3). Subduction rate in the Southwest Indian Ocean subtropical gyre exhibits a great year-to-year variability. This interannual variations of the IOSTMW subduction rate is primarily dominated by the lateral induction term, associated with the interannual variations of strong meridional gradient of winter mixed layer depth (MLD). The slope of the mixed layer depth in the mode water is closely linked to the large variations of deep late winter MLD in the mid-latitudes and negligible variations of shallow winter MLD in lower latitudes. It is further identified that the interannual variation of late winter MLD in this area is largely controlled by the latent and sensible heat flux components. The water volume of the permanent pycnocline in the IOSTMW distribution area is also found to show a significant interannual variability, and it is well correlated with the interannual variation of subduction rate.

Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: the Australian case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Grant J.; Prior, Lynda D.; Jolly, W. Matt; Cochrane, Mark A.; Murphy, Brett P.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2016-03-01

Climate dynamics at diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual scales shape global fire activity, although difficulties of assembling reliable fire and meteorological data with sufficient spatio-temporal resolution have frustrated quantification of this variability. Using Australia as a case study, we combine data from 4760 meteorological stations with 12 years of satellite-derived active fire detections to determine day and night time fire activity, fire season start and end dates, and inter-annual variability, across 61 objectively defined climate regions in three climate zones (monsoon tropics, arid and temperate). We show that geographic patterns of landscape burning (onset and duration) are related to fire weather, resulting in a latitudinal gradient from the monsoon tropics in winter, through the arid zone in all seasons except winter, and then to the temperate zone in summer and autumn. Peak fire activity precedes maximum lightning activity by several months in all regions, signalling the importance of human ignitions in shaping fire seasons. We determined median daily McArthur forest fire danger index (FFDI50) for days and nights when fires were detected: FFDI50 varied substantially between climate zones, reflecting effects of fire management in the temperate zone, fuel limitation in the arid zone and abundance of flammable grasses in the monsoon tropical zone. We found correlations between the proportion of days when FFDI exceeds FFDI50 and the Southern Oscillation index across the arid zone during spring and summer, and Indian Ocean dipole mode index across south-eastern Australia during summer. Our study demonstrates that Australia has a long fire weather season with high inter-annual variability relative to all other continents, making it difficult to detect long term trends. It also provides a way of establishing robust baselines to track changes to fire seasons, and supports a previous conceptual model highlighting multi-temporal scale effects of climate in shaping continental-scale pyrogeography.

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-Specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.

2014-01-01

We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (50, the equivalent of 20 PgC y-1. Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed to 20 (7 PgC y-1 of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10 (4 PgC y(sub-1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (45) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4 (1-2 PgC y-1. We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nio Index, MEI) and regional climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p 0.05) between the MEI and the class-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatomscyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on the class-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Primary Production at a Global Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.

2013-01-01

We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of four phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First, we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production ((is)approximately 50%, the equivalent of 20 PgC·y1). Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed approximately 20% ((is) approximately 7 PgC·y1) of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10% ((is) approximately 4 PgC·y1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in the high latitudes ((is) greater than 40 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4% (1-2 PgC·y1). We assessed the effects of climate variability on group-specific primary production using global (i.e., Multivariate El Niño Index, MEI) and "regional" climate indices (e.g., Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p (is) less than 0.05) between the MEI and the group-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatoms/cyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on group-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

Interannual variability of cut-off low systems over the European sector: The role of blocking and the Northern Hemisphere circulation modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieto, R.; Gimeno, L.; de La Torre, L.; Ribera, P.; Barriopedro, D.; García-Herrera, R.; Serrano, A.; Gordillo, A.; Redaño, A.; Lorente, J.

2007-04-01

An earlier developed multidecadal database of Northern Hemisphere cut-off low systems (COLs), covering a 41 years period (from 1958 to 1998) is used to study COLs interannual variability in the European sector (25°-47.5° N, 50° W-40° E) and the major factors controlling it. The study focus on the influence on COLs interannual variability, of larger scale phenomena such as blocking events and other main circulation modes defined over the Euro-Atlantic region. It is shown that there is a very large interannual variability in the COLs occurrence at the annual and seasonal scales, although without significant trends. The influence of larger scale phenomena is seasonal dependent, with the positive phase of the NAO favoring autumn COL development, while winter COL occurrence is mostly related to blocking events. During summer, the season when more COLs occur, no significant influences were found.

Understanding recent eastern Horn of Africa rainfall variability and change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liebmann, Brant; Hoerling, Martin P.; Funk, Christopher C.; Blade, Ileana; Dole, Randall M.; Allured, Dave; Quan, Xiaowei; Eischeid, Jon K.

2014-01-01

The recent upward trend in the October–December wet season is rather weak, however, and its statistical significance is compromised by strong year-to-year fluctuations. October–December eastern Horn rain variability is strongly associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole phenomena on interannual scales, in both model and observations. The interannual October–December correlation between the ensemble-average and observed Horn rainfall 0.87. By comparison, interannual March–May Horn precipitation is only weakly constrained by SST anomalies.

Surface Salinity Variability in the North Atlantic During Recent Decades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haekkinen, Sirpa

2001-01-01

The sea surface salinity (SSS) variability in the North Atlantic is investigated using numerical model simulations for the last 50 years based on atmospheric forcing variability from Comprehensive Atmosphere Ocean Data Set (COADS) and National Center for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis. The largest interannual and longer term variability occurs in two regions: the Labrador Sea and the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) region. In both regions the seasonality of the surface salinity variability is prominent with the maximum standard deviation occurring in the summer/fall period. In the Labrador Sea the summer SSS anomalies far exceed those of wintertime in amplitude. The interannual SSS variability in the subpolar gyre can be attributed to two factors: excess ice melt and heat flux (i.e. deep mixing) variations. On the other hand, heat flux variability can also lead to meridional overturning changes on decadal time scales such that weak overturning is manifested in fresh surface conditions in the subpolar gyre. The overturning changes also influence the NECC region SSS variability. Moreover, the subpolar freshening events are expected to occur during the negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation which is associated with a weak wintertime surface heat loss in the subpolar gyre. No excess sea ice melt or precipitation is necessary for the formation of the fresh anomalies, because with the lack of wide-spread deep mixing, the fresh water that would be expected based on climatology, would accumulate at the surface. Thus, the fresh water 'conveyor' in the Atlantic operates via the overturning circulation such that deep mixing inserts fresh water while removing heat from the water column.

Interannual-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability and its sectoral impacts in northeastern Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovino, Miguel A.; Müller, Omar V.; Müller, Gabriela V.; Sgroi, Leandro C.; Baethgen, Walter E.

2018-06-01

This study examines the joint variability of precipitation, river streamflow and temperature over northeastern Argentina; advances the understanding of their links with global SST forcing; and discusses their impacts on water resources, agriculture and human settlements. The leading patterns of variability, and their nonlinear trends and cycles are identified by means of a principal component analysis (PCA) complemented with a singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Interannual hydroclimatic variability centers on two broad frequency bands: one of 2.5-6.5 years corresponding to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periodicities and the second of about 9 years. The higher frequencies of the precipitation variability (2.5-4 years) favored extreme events after 2000, even during moderate extreme phases of the ENSO. Minimum temperature is correlated with ENSO with a main frequency close to 3 years. Maximum temperature time series correlate well with SST variability over the South Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans with a 9-year frequency. Interdecadal variability is characterized by low-frequency trends and multidecadal oscillations that have induced a transition from dryer and cooler climate to wetter and warmer decades starting in the mid-twentieth century. The Paraná River streamflow is influenced by North and South Atlantic SSTs with bidecadal periodicities. The hydroclimate variability at all timescales had significant sectoral impacts. Frequent wet events between 1970 and 2005 favored floods that affected agricultural and livestock productivity and forced population displacements. On the other hand, agricultural droughts resulted in soil moisture deficits that affected crops at critical growth stages. Hydrological droughts affected surface water resources, causing water and food scarcity and stressing the capacity for hydropower generation. Lastly, increases in minimum temperature reduced wheat and barley yields.

Interannual to Decadal Variability of Ocean Evaporation as Viewed from Climate Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.; Wang, Hailan

2015-01-01

Questions we'll address: Given the uncoupled framework of "AMIP" (Atmosphere Model Inter-comparison Project) experiments, what can they tell us regarding evaporation variability? Do Reduced Observations Reanalyses (RedObs) using Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) pressure (and wind) provide a more realistic picture of evaporation variability? What signals of interannual variability (e.g. El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) and decadal variability (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)) are detectable with this hierarchy of evaporation estimates?

The impact of Circulation Weather Types in Urban Air Quality in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Ana; Trigo, Ricardo

2013-04-01

It is now clear that emissions of the main air pollutants in Europe have declined significantly in recent decades (EEA, 2011). Nevertheless, many European countries (including Portugal) do not expect to comply with one (or more) pollutant emission ceilings and to air quality limit values, especially for particulate matter (PM), ground level ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (EEA, 2011). Consequently, and considering that air pollution (AP) plays a role as a major cause of human mortality and morbidity, exposure to pollutants remains a key environment-related health concern (EEA 2010). Thus, and to comply with the new limits, new strategies must be applied for air quality management. The main objective of this work is to present an objective classification of pre-defined and widely used CWTs affecting Portugal and, based on the most relevant patterns, provide a framework that is useful to characterise the occurrence of pollution episodes, namely its inter-annual and intra-annual variability, as well as the occurrence of extreme events. CWTs were determined using the simple Geostrophic approximation according to the methodology proposed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000). The interannual variability of the resulting CWTs was determined for the period with AP data (2002-2010) and the number of days for each CWT and season for the same period was accounted for. During this period, the most frequent CWTs were found to be the anticyclonic (A), the north (N) and the northeast (NE) types, accounting respectively for 34.7%, 10.9% and 14% of the days. However, higher-than average episodes tend to occur associated predominantly with situations characterized by a few less frequent CWTs, namely easterly (E), northeasterly (NE) and southeasterly (SE) types (that together contributed to less than one fourth of all observed days), are the ones which are associated to higher median and maximum concentrations of the three pollutants. Results obtained highlight the existence of strong links between the interannual variability of daily air quality and interannual variability of CWTs. Additionally, three specific extreme episodes were assessed in more detail including a comparison with results obtained with the HYSPLIT system model. In general, all the pollutants' extreme events occur associated predominantly with situations characterized by an Eastern component and advection of dry air masses.

Explaining and forecasting interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siam, M. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-05-01

The natural interannual variability in the flow of Nile River had a significant impact on the ancient civilizations and cultures that flourished on the banks of the river. This is evident from stories in the Bible and Koran, and from the numerous Nilometers discovered near ancient temples. Here, we analyze extensive data sets collected during the 20th century and define four modes of natural variability in the flow of Nile River, identifying a new significant potential for improving predictability of floods and droughts. Previous studies have identified a significant teleconnection between the Nile flow and the Eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains about 25% of the interannual variability in the Nile flow. Here, we identify, for the first time, a region in the southern Indian Ocean with similarly strong teleconnection to the Nile flow. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the region (50-80° E and 25-35° S) explains 28% of the interannual variability in the Nile flow. During those years with anomalous SST conditions in both Oceans, we estimate that indices of the SSTs in the Pacific and Indian Oceans can collectively explain up to 84% of the interannual variability in the flow of Nile. Building on these findings, we use classical Bayesian theorem to develop a new hybrid forecasting algorithm that predicts the Nile flow based on global models predictions of indices of the SST in the Eastern Pacific and Southern Indian Oceans.

Carbon cycle. The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO₂ sink.

PubMed

Ahlström, Anders; Raupach, Michael R; Schurgers, Guy; Smith, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Canadell, Josep G; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jain, Atul K; Kato, Etsushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Sitch, Stephen; Stocker, Benjamin D; Viovy, Nicolas; Wang, Ying Ping; Wiltshire, Andy; Zaehle, Sönke; Zeng, Ning

2015-05-22

The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations since industrialization is characterized by large interannual variability, mostly resulting from variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems (typically termed carbon sink). However, the contributions of regional ecosystems to that variability are not well known. Using an ensemble of ecosystem and land-surface models and an empirical observation-based product of global gross primary production, we show that the mean sink, trend, and interannual variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by distinct biogeographic regions. Whereas the mean sink is dominated by highly productive lands (mainly tropical forests), the trend and interannual variability of the sink are dominated by semi-arid ecosystems whose carbon balance is strongly associated with circulation-driven variations in both precipitation and temperature. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Impacts of Interannual Variability in Biogenic VOC Emissions near Transitional Ozone Production Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geddes, J.

2017-12-01

Due to successful NOx emission controls, summertime ozone production chemistry in urban areas across North America is transitioning from VOC-limited to increasingly NOx-limited. In some regions where ozone production sensitivity is in transition, interannual variability in surrounding biogenic VOC emissions could drive fluctuations in the prevailing chemical regime and modify the impact of anthropogenic emission changes. I use satellite observations of HCHO and NO2 column density, along with a long-term simulation of atmospheric chemistry, to investigate the impact of interannual variability in biogenic isoprene sources near large metro areas. Peak emissions of isoprene in the model can vary by up to 20-60% in any given year compared to the long term mean, and this variability drives the majority of the variability in simulated local HCHO:NO2 ratios (a common proxy for ozone production sensitivity). The satellite observations confirm increasingly NOx-limited chemical regimes with large interannual variability. In several instances, the model and satellite observations suggest that variability in biogenic isoprene emissions could shift summertime ozone production from generally VOC- to generally NOx- sensitive (or vice versa). This would have implications for predicting the air quality impacts of anthropogenic emission changes in any given year, and suggests that drivers of biogenic emissions need to be well understood.

Interannual rainfall variability and SOM-based circulation classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolski, Piotr; Jack, Christopher; Tadross, Mark; van Aardenne, Lisa; Lennard, Christopher

2018-01-01

Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) based classifications of synoptic circulation patterns are increasingly being used to interpret large-scale drivers of local climate variability, and as part of statistical downscaling methodologies. These applications rely on a basic premise of synoptic climatology, i.e. that local weather is conditioned by the large-scale circulation. While it is clear that this relationship holds in principle, the implications of its implementation through SOM-based classification, particularly at interannual and longer time scales, are not well recognized. Here we use a SOM to understand the interannual synoptic drivers of climate variability at two locations in the winter and summer rainfall regimes of South Africa. We quantify the portion of variance in seasonal rainfall totals that is explained by year to year differences in the synoptic circulation, as schematized by a SOM. We furthermore test how different spatial domain sizes and synoptic variables affect the ability of the SOM to capture the dominant synoptic drivers of interannual rainfall variability. Additionally, we identify systematic synoptic forcing that is not captured by the SOM classification. The results indicate that the frequency of synoptic states, as schematized by a relatively disaggregated SOM (7 × 9) of prognostic atmospheric variables, including specific humidity, air temperature and geostrophic winds, captures only 20-45% of interannual local rainfall variability, and that the residual variance contains a strong systematic component. Utilising a multivariate linear regression framework demonstrates that this residual variance can largely be explained using synoptic variables over a particular location; even though they are used in the development of the SOM their influence, however, diminishes with the size of the SOM spatial domain. The influence of the SOM domain size, the choice of SOM atmospheric variables and grid-point explanatory variables on the levels of explained variance, is consistent with the general understanding of the dominant processes and atmospheric variables that affect rainfall variability at a particular location.

Source attribution of interannual variability of tropospheric ozone over the southern hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Logan, J. A.; Steenrod, S. D.; Douglass, A. R.; Olsen, M. A.; Wargan, K.; Ziemke, J. R.

2015-12-01

Both model simulations and GMAO assimilated ozone product derived from OMI/MLS show a high tropospheric ozone column centered over the south Atlantic from the equator to 30S. This ozone maximum extends eastward to South America and the southeast Pacific; it extends southwestward to southern Africa, south Indian Ocean. In this study, we use hindcast simulations from the GMI model of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, driven by assimilated MERRA meteorological fields, to investigate the factors controlling the interannual variations (IAV) of this ozone maximum during the last two decades. We also use various GMI tracer diagnostics, including a stratospheric ozone tracer to tag the impact of stratospheric ozone, and a tagged CO tracer to track the emission sources, to ascertain the contribution of difference processes to IAV in ozone at different altitudes, as well as partial columns above different pressure level. Our initial model analysis suggests that the IAV of the stratospheric contribution plays a major role on in the IAV of the upper tropospheric ozone and explains a large portion of variance during its winter season. Over the south Atlantic region, the IAV of surface emissions from both South America and southern Africa also contribute significantly to the IAV of ozone, especially in the middle and lower troposphere

Causes of Interannual Variability over the Southern Hemispheric Tropospheric Ozone Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Junhua; Rodriguez, Jose M.; Steenrod, Stephen D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Olsen, Mark A.; Wargan, Krzysztog; Ziemke, Jerald R.

2017-01-01

We examine the relative contribution of processes controlling the interannual variability (IAV) of tropospheric ozone over four sub-regions of the southern hemispheric tropospheric ozone maximum (SHTOM) over a 20-year period. Our study is based on hindcast simulations from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling Initiative chemistry transport model (NASA GMI-CTM) of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, driven by assimilated Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields. Our analysis shows that over SHTOM region, the IAV of the stratospheric contribution is the most important factor driving the IAV of upper tropospheric ozone (270 hectopascals), where ozone has a strong radiative effect. Over the South Atlantic region, the contribution from surface emissions to the IAV of ozone exceeds that from stratospheric input at and below 430 hectopascals. Over the South Indian Ocean, the IAV of stratospheric ozone makes the largest contribution to the IAV of ozone with little or no influence from surface emissions at 270 and 430 hectopascals in austral winter. Over the tropical South Atlantic region, the contribution from IAV of stratospheric input dominates in austral winter at 270 hectopascals and drops to less than half but is still significant at 430 hectopascals. Emission contributions are not significant at these two levels. The IAV of lightning over this region also contributes to the IAV of ozone in September and December. Over the tropical southeastern Pacific, the contribution of the IAV of stratospheric input is significant at 270 and 430 hectopascals in austral winter, and emissions have little influence.

Causes of interannual variability over the southern hemispheric tropospheric ozone maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Junhua; Rodriguez, Jose M.; Steenrod, Stephen D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Olsen, Mark A.; Wargan, Krzysztof; Ziemke, Jerald R.

2017-03-01

We examine the relative contribution of processes controlling the interannual variability (IAV) of tropospheric ozone over four sub-regions of the southern hemispheric tropospheric ozone maximum (SHTOM) over a 20-year period. Our study is based on hindcast simulations from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling Initiative chemistry transport model (NASA GMI-CTM) of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, driven by assimilated Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields. Our analysis shows that over SHTOM region, the IAV of the stratospheric contribution is the most important factor driving the IAV of upper tropospheric ozone (270 hPa), where ozone has a strong radiative effect. Over the South Atlantic region, the contribution from surface emissions to the IAV of ozone exceeds that from stratospheric input at and below 430 hPa. Over the South Indian Ocean, the IAV of stratospheric ozone makes the largest contribution to the IAV of ozone with little or no influence from surface emissions at 270 and 430 hPa in austral winter. Over the tropical South Atlantic region, the contribution from IAV of stratospheric input dominates in austral winter at 270 hPa and drops to less than half but is still significant at 430 hPa. Emission contributions are not significant at these two levels. The IAV of lightning over this region also contributes to the IAV of ozone in September and December. Over the tropical southeastern Pacific, the contribution of the IAV of stratospheric input is significant at 270 and 430 hPa in austral winter, and emissions have little influence.

Improving uncertainty estimates: Inter-annual variability in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pullinger, D.; Zhang, M.; Hill, N.; Crutchley, T.

2017-11-01

This paper addresses the uncertainty associated with inter-annual variability used within wind resource assessments for Ireland in order to more accurately represent the uncertainties within wind resource and energy yield assessments. The study was undertaken using a total of 16 ground stations (Met Eireann) and corresponding reanalysis datasets to provide an update to previous work on this topic undertaken nearly 20 years ago. The results of the work demonstrate that the previously reported 5.4% of wind speed inter-annual variability is considered to be appropriate, guidance is given on how to provide a robust assessment of IAV using available sources of data including ground stations, MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Precipitation Variability and Predictability in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Suarez, M. J.; Heiser, M.

1998-01-01

In an earlier GCM study, we showed that interactive land surface processes generally contribute more to continental precipitation variance than do variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A new study extends this result through an analysis of 16-member ensembles of multi-decade GCM simulations. We can now show that in many regions, although land processes determine the amplitude of the interannual precipitation anomalies, variable SSTs nevertheless control their timing. The GCM data can be processed into indices that describe geographical variations in (1) the potential for seasonal-to-interannual prediction, and (2) the extent to which the predictability relies on the proper representation of land-atmosphere feedback.

Evaluating the applicability of using daily forecasts from seasonal prediction systems (SPSs) for agriculture: a case study of Nepal's Terai with the NCEP CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jha, Prakash K.; Athanasiadis, Panos; Gualdi, Silvio; Trabucco, Antonio; Mereu, Valentina; Shelia, Vakhtang; Hoogenboom, Gerrit

2018-03-01

Ensemble forecasts from dynamic seasonal prediction systems (SPSs) have the potential to improve decision-making for crop management to help cope with interannual weather variability. Because the reliability of crop yield predictions based on seasonal weather forecasts depends on the quality of the forecasts, it is essential to evaluate forecasts prior to agricultural applications. This study analyses the potential of Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) in predicting the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) for producing meteorological variables relevant to crop modeling. The focus area was Nepal's Terai region, and the local hindcasts were compared with weather station and reanalysis data. The results showed that the CFSv2 model accurately predicts monthly anomalies of daily maximum and minimum air temperature (Tmax and Tmin) as well as incoming total surface solar radiation (Srad). However, the daily climatologies of the respective CFSv2 hindcasts exhibit significant systematic biases compared to weather station data. The CFSv2 is less capable of predicting monthly precipitation anomalies and simulating the respective intra-seasonal variability over the growing season. Nevertheless, the observed daily climatologies of precipitation fall within the ensemble spread of the respective daily climatologies of CFSv2 hindcasts. These limitations in the CFSv2 seasonal forecasts, primarily in precipitation, restrict the potential application for predicting the interannual variability of crop yield associated with weather variability. Despite these limitations, ensemble averaging of the simulated yield using all CFSv2 members after applying bias correction may lead to satisfactory yield predictions.

Meteorological influences on the interannual variability of meningitis incidence in northwest Nigeria.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdussalam, Auwal; Monaghan, Andrew; Dukic, Vanja; Hayden, Mary; Hopson, Thomas; Leckebusch, Gregor

2013-04-01

Northwest Nigeria is a region with high risk of bacterial meningitis. Since the first documented epidemic of meningitis in Nigeria in 1905, the disease has been endemic in the northern part of the country, with epidemics occurring regularly. In this study we examine the influence of climate on the interannual variability of meningitis incidence and epidemics. Monthly aggregate counts of clinically confirmed hospital-reported cases of meningitis were collected in northwest Nigeria for the 22-year period spanning 1990-2011. Several generalized linear statistical models were fit to the monthly meningitis counts, including generalized additive models. Explanatory variables included monthly records of temperatures, humidity, rainfall, wind speed, sunshine and dustiness from weather stations nearest to the hospitals, and a time series of polysaccharide vaccination efficacy. The effects of other confounding factors -- i.e., mainly non-climatic factors for which records were not available -- were estimated as a smooth, monthly-varying function of time in the generalized additive models. Results reveal that the most important explanatory climatic variables are mean maximum monthly temperature, relative humidity and dustiness. Accounting for confounding factors (e.g., social processes) in the generalized additive models explains more of the year-to-year variation of meningococcal disease compared to those generalized linear models that do not account for such factors. Promising results from several models that included only explanatory variables that preceded the meningitis case data by 1-month suggest there may be potential for prediction of meningitis in northwest Nigeria to aid decision makers on this time scale.

Radiative effects of interannually varying vs. interannually invariant aerosol emissions from fires

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grandey, Benjamin S.; Lee, Hsiang-He; Wang, Chien

Open-burning fires play an important role in the earth's climate system. In addition to contributing a substantial fraction of global emissions of carbon dioxide, they are a major source of atmospheric aerosols containing organic carbon, black carbon, and sulfate. These “fire aerosols” can influence the climate via direct and indirect radiative effects. In this study, we investigate these radiative effects and the hydrological fast response using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Emissions of fire aerosols exert a global mean net radiative effect of −1.0 W m −2, dominated by the cloud shortwave response to organic carbon aerosol. The net radiative effectmore » is particularly strong over boreal regions. Conventionally, many climate modelling studies have used an interannually invariant monthly climatology of emissions of fire aerosols. However, by comparing simulations using interannually varying emissions vs. interannually invariant emissions, we find that ignoring the interannual variability of the emissions can lead to systematic overestimation of the strength of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols. Globally, the overestimation is +23 % (−0.2 W m −2). Regionally, the overestimation can be substantially larger. For example, over Australia and New Zealand the overestimation is +58 % (−1.2 W m −2), while over Boreal Asia the overestimation is +43 % (−1.9 W m −2). The systematic overestimation of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols is likely due to the non-linear influence of aerosols on clouds. However, ignoring interannual variability in the emissions does not appear to significantly impact the hydrological fast response. In order to improve understanding of the climate system, we need to take into account the interannual variability of aerosol emissions.« less

Radiative effects of interannually varying vs. interannually invariant aerosol emissions from fires

DOE PAGES

Grandey, Benjamin S.; Lee, Hsiang-He; Wang, Chien

2016-11-23

Open-burning fires play an important role in the earth's climate system. In addition to contributing a substantial fraction of global emissions of carbon dioxide, they are a major source of atmospheric aerosols containing organic carbon, black carbon, and sulfate. These “fire aerosols” can influence the climate via direct and indirect radiative effects. In this study, we investigate these radiative effects and the hydrological fast response using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Emissions of fire aerosols exert a global mean net radiative effect of −1.0 W m −2, dominated by the cloud shortwave response to organic carbon aerosol. The net radiative effectmore » is particularly strong over boreal regions. Conventionally, many climate modelling studies have used an interannually invariant monthly climatology of emissions of fire aerosols. However, by comparing simulations using interannually varying emissions vs. interannually invariant emissions, we find that ignoring the interannual variability of the emissions can lead to systematic overestimation of the strength of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols. Globally, the overestimation is +23 % (−0.2 W m −2). Regionally, the overestimation can be substantially larger. For example, over Australia and New Zealand the overestimation is +58 % (−1.2 W m −2), while over Boreal Asia the overestimation is +43 % (−1.9 W m −2). The systematic overestimation of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols is likely due to the non-linear influence of aerosols on clouds. However, ignoring interannual variability in the emissions does not appear to significantly impact the hydrological fast response. In order to improve understanding of the climate system, we need to take into account the interannual variability of aerosol emissions.« less

Effect of Ocean Interannual Variability on Acoustic Propagation in the Philippine Sea and South China Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

Coronas , 1920). The dominant pattern of interannual variability is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has two quasi-periodic states...Validation of Wavewatch-III using TOPEX/ Poseidon data. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 21, 1718–1733. Coronas , J., 1920: The climate and weather of the

Interannual covariability between actual evapotranspiration and PAL and GIMMS NDVIs of northern Asia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suzuki, Rikie; Masuda, Kooiti; Dye, Dennis G.

2007-01-01

This study examined the covariability between interannual changes in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and actual evapotranspiration (ET). To reduce possible uncertainty in the NDVI time series, two NDVI datasets derived from Pathfinder AVHRR Land (PAL) data and the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling Studies (GIMMS) group were used. Analyses were conducted using data over northern Asia from 1982 to 2000. Interannual changes over 19 years in the PAL-NDVI and GIMMS-NDVI were compared with interannual changes in ET estimated from model-assimilated atmospheric data and gridded precipitation data. For both NDVI datasets, the annual maximum correlation with ET occurred in June, which is the beginning of the vegetation growing season. The PAL and GIMMS datasets showed a significant, positive correlation between interannual changes in the NDVI and ET over most of the vegetated land area in June. These results suggest that interannual changes in vegetation activity predominantly control interannual changes in ET in June. Based on analyses of interannual changes in temperature, precipitation, and the NDVI in June, the study area can be roughly divided into two regions, the warmth-dominated northernmost region and the wetness-dominated southern region, indicating that interannual changes in vegetation and the resultant interannual changes in ET are controlled by warmth and wetness in these two regions, respectively.

Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siam, Mohamed S.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2017-04-01

The human population living in the Nile basin countries is projected to double by 2050, approaching one billion. The increase in water demand associated with this burgeoning population will put significant stress on the available water resources. Potential changes in the flow of the Nile River as a result of climate change may further strain this critical situation. Here, we present empirical evidence from observations and consistent projections from climate model simulations suggesting that the standard deviation describing interannual variability of total Nile flow could increase by 50% (+/-35%) (multi-model ensemble mean +/- 1 standard deviation) in the twenty-first century compared to the twentieth century. We attribute the relatively large change in interannual variability of the Nile flow to projected increases in future occurrences of El Niño and La Niña events and to observed teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Nile River flow. Adequacy of current water storage capacity and plans for additional storage capacity in the basin will need to be re-evaluated given the projected enhancement of interannual variability in the future flow of the Nile river.

Interannual variability of physical oceanographic characteristics of Gilbert Bay: A marine protected area in Labrador, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Best, Sara; Lundrigan, Sarah; Demirov, Entcho; Wroblewski, Joe

2011-10-01

Gilbert Bay on the southeast coast of Labrador is the site of the first Marine Protected Area (MPA) established in the subarctic coastal zone of eastern Canada. The MPA was created to conserve a genetically distinctive population of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua. This article presents results from a study of the interannual variability in atmospheric and physical oceanographic characteristics of Gilbert Bay over the period 1949-2006. We describe seasonal and interannual variability of the atmospheric parameters at the sea surface in the bay. The interannual variability of the atmosphere in the Gilbert Bay region is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a recent warming trend in the local climate of coastal Labrador. The related changes in seawater temperature, salinity and sea-ice thickness in winter are simulated with a one-dimensional water column model, the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). A warming Gilbert Bay ecosystem would be favorable for cod growth, but reduced sea-ice formation during the winter months increases the danger of traveling across the bay by snowmobile.

Ensemble simulations of the role of the stratosphere in the attribution of northern extratropical tropospheric ozone variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, P.; Kinnison, D.; Tang, Q.

2015-03-01

Despite the need to understand the impact of changes in emissions and climate on tropospheric ozone, the attribution of tropospheric interannual ozone variability to specific processes has proven difficult. Here, we analyze the stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone variability and trends from 1953 to 2005 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes using four ensemble simulations of the free running (FR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The simulations are externally forced with observed time-varying (1) sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), (2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), (3) ozone depleting substances (ODS), (4) quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), (5) solar variability (SV) and (6) stratospheric sulfate surface area density (SAD). A detailed representation of stratospheric chemistry is simulated, including the ozone loss due to volcanic eruptions and polar stratospheric clouds. In the troposphere, ozone production is represented by CH4-NOx smog chemistry, where surface chemical emissions remain interannually constant. Despite the simplicity of its tropospheric chemistry, at many NH measurement locations, the interannual ozone variability in the FR WACCM simulations is significantly correlated with the measured interannual variability. This suggests the importance of the external forcing applied in these simulations in driving interannual ozone variability. The variability and trend in the simulated 1953-2005 tropospheric ozone from 30 to 90° N at background surface measurement sites, 500 hPa measurement sites and in the area average are largely explained on interannual timescales by changes in the 30-90° N area averaged flux of ozone across the 100 hPa surface and changes in tropospheric methane concentrations. The average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to methane (percent change in ozone to a percent change in methane) from 30 to 90° N is 0.17 at 500 hPa and 0.21 at the surface; the average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to the 100 hPa ozone flux (percent change in ozone to a percent change in the ozone flux) from 30 to 90° N is 0.19 at 500 hPa and 0.11 at the surface. The 30-90° N simulated downward residual velocity at 100 hPa increased by 15% between 1953 and 2005. However, the impact of this on the 30-90° N 100 hPa ozone flux is modulated by the long-term changes in stratospheric ozone. The ozone flux decreases from 1965 to 1990 due to stratospheric ozone depletion, but increases again by approximately 7% from 1990 to 2005. The first empirical orthogonal function of interannual ozone variability explains from 40% (at the surface) to over 80% (at 150 hPa) of the simulated ozone interannual variability from 30 to 90° N. This identified mode of ozone variability shows strong stratosphere-troposphere coupling, demonstrating the importance of the stratosphere in an attribution of tropospheric ozone variability. The simulations, with no change in emissions, capture almost 50% of the measured ozone change during the 1990s at a variety of locations. This suggests that a large portion of the measured change is not due to changes in emissions, but can be traced to changes in large-scale modes of ozone variability. This emphasizes the difficulty in the attribution of ozone changes, and the importance of natural variability in understanding the trends and variability of ozone. We find little relation between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and large-scale tropospheric ozone variability over the long-term record.

Regional simulation of interannual variability over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, V.; Dirmeyer, P. A.; Kirtman, B. P.; Juang, H.-M. Henry; Kanamitsu, M.

2002-08-01

Three regional climate simulations covering the austral summer season during three contrasting phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle were conducted with the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The simulated interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon River Basin, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins, and extratropical South America compare reasonably well with observations. The RSM optimally filters the peturbations about a time-varying base field, thereby enhancing the information content of the global NCEP reanalysis. The model is better than the reanalysis in reproducing the observed interannual variability of outgoing longwave radiation at both high frequencies (3-30 days) and intraseasonal (30-60 days) scales. The low-level jet shows a peak in its speed in 1998 and a minimum in the 1999 simulations. The lag correlation of the jet index with convection over various areas in continental South America indicates that the jet induces precipitation over the Pampas region downstream. A detailed moisture budget was conducted over various subregions. This budget reveals that moisture flux convergence determines most of the interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon Basin, the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the Nordeste region of Brazil. However, both surface evaporation and surface moisture flux convergence were found to be critical in determining the interannual variability of precipitation over the southern Pampas, Gran Chaco area, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone.

A Bayesian methodological framework for accommodating interannual variability of nutrient loading with the SPARROW model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wellen, Christopher; Arhonditsis, George B.; Labencki, Tanya; Boyd, Duncan

2012-10-01

Regression-type, hybrid empirical/process-based models (e.g., SPARROW, PolFlow) have assumed a prominent role in efforts to estimate the sources and transport of nutrient pollution at river basin scales. However, almost no attempts have been made to explicitly accommodate interannual nutrient loading variability in their structure, despite empirical and theoretical evidence indicating that the associated source/sink processes are quite variable at annual timescales. In this study, we present two methodological approaches to accommodate interannual variability with the Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nonlinear regression model. The first strategy uses the SPARROW model to estimate a static baseline load and climatic variables (e.g., precipitation) to drive the interannual variability. The second approach allows the source/sink processes within the SPARROW model to vary at annual timescales using dynamic parameter estimation techniques akin to those used in dynamic linear models. Model parameterization is founded upon Bayesian inference techniques that explicitly consider calibration data and model uncertainty. Our case study is the Hamilton Harbor watershed, a mixed agricultural and urban residential area located at the western end of Lake Ontario, Canada. Our analysis suggests that dynamic parameter estimation is the more parsimonious of the two strategies tested and can offer insights into the temporal structural changes associated with watershed functioning. Consistent with empirical and theoretical work, model estimated annual in-stream attenuation rates varied inversely with annual discharge. Estimated phosphorus source areas were concentrated near the receiving water body during years of high in-stream attenuation and dispersed along the main stems of the streams during years of low attenuation, suggesting that nutrient source areas are subject to interannual variability.

Low-frequency variability of the Atlantic MOC in the eddying regime : the intrinsic component.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregorio, S.; Penduff, T.; Barnier, B.; Molines, J.-M.; Le Sommer, J.

2012-04-01

A 327-year 1/4° global ocean/sea-ice simulation has been produced by the DRAKKAR ocean modeling consortium. This simulation is forced by a repeated seasonal atmospheric forcing but nevertheless exhibits a substantial low-frequency variability (at interannual and longer timescales), which is therefore of intrinsic origin. This nonlinearly-generated intrinsic variability is almost absent from the coarse-resolution (2°) version of this simulation. Comparing the 1/4° simulation with its fully-forced counterpart, Penduff et al. (2011) have shown that the low-frequency variability of local sea-level is largely generated by the ocean itself in eddying areas, rather than directly forced by the atmosphere. Using the same simulations, the present study quantifies the imprint of the intrinsic low-frequency variability on the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) at interannual-to-decadal timescales in the Atlantic. We first compare the intrinsic and atmospherically-forced interannual variances of the Atlantic MOC calculated in geopotential coordinates. This analysis reveals substantial sources of intrinsic MOC variability in the South Atlantic (driven by the Agulhas mesoscale activity according to Biastoch et al. (2008)), but also in the North Atlantic. We extend our investigation to the MOC calculated in isopycnal coordinates, and identify regions in the basin where the water mass transformation exhibits low-frequency intrinsic variability. In this eddy-permitting regime, intrinsic processes are shown to generate about half the total (geopotential and isopycnal) MOC interannual variance in certain key regions of the Atlantic. This intrinsic variability is absent from 2° simulations. Penduff, T., Juza, M., Barnier, B., Zika, J., Dewar, W.K., Treguier, A.-M., Molines, J.-M., Audiffren, N., 2011: Sea-level expression of intrinsic and forced ocean variabilities at interannual time scales. J. Climate, 24, 5652-5670. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00077.1. Biastoch, A., Böning, C. W., Lutjeharms, J. R. E., 2008: Agulhas leakage dynamics affects decadal variability in Atlantic overturning circulation. Nature, 456, 489-492, doi: 10.1038/nature07426.

AVHRR channel selection for land cover classification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maxwell, S.K.; Hoffer, R.M.; Chapman, P.L.

2002-01-01

Mapping land cover of large regions often requires processing of satellite images collected from several time periods at many spectral wavelength channels. However, manipulating and processing large amounts of image data increases the complexity and time, and hence the cost, that it takes to produce a land cover map. Very few studies have evaluated the importance of individual Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) channels for discriminating cover types, especially the thermal channels (channels 3, 4 and 5). Studies rarely perform a multi-year analysis to determine the impact of inter-annual variability on the classification results. We evaluated 5 years of AVHRR data using combinations of the original AVHRR spectral channels (1-5) to determine which channels are most important for cover type discrimination, yet stabilize inter-annual variability. Particular attention was placed on the channels in the thermal portion of the spectrum. Fourteen cover types over the entire state of Colorado were evaluated using a supervised classification approach on all two-, three-, four- and five-channel combinations for seven AVHRR biweekly composite datasets covering the entire growing season for each of 5 years. Results show that all three of the major portions of the electromagnetic spectrum represented by the AVHRR sensor are required to discriminate cover types effectively and stabilize inter-annual variability. Of the two-channel combinations, channels 1 (red visible) and 2 (near-infrared) had, by far, the highest average overall accuracy (72.2%), yet the inter-annual classification accuracies were highly variable. Including a thermal channel (channel 4) significantly increased the average overall classification accuracy by 5.5% and stabilized interannual variability. Each of the thermal channels gave similar classification accuracies; however, because of the problems in consistently interpreting channel 3 data, either channel 4 or 5 was found to be a more appropriate choice. Substituting the thermal channel with a single elevation layer resulted in equivalent classification accuracies and inter-annual variability.

Comprehensive assessment of dam impacts on flow regimes with consideration of interannual variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongyong; Shao, Quanxi; Zhao, Tongtiegang

2017-09-01

Assessing the impact of human intervention on flow regimes is important in policy making and resource management. Previous impact assessments of dam regulation on flow regimes have focused on long-term average patterns, but interannual variations, which are important characteristics to be considered, have been ignored. In this study, the entire signatures of hydrograph variations of Miyun Reservoir in northern China were described by forty flow regime metrics that incorporate magnitude, variability and frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change for flow events based on a long-term synchronous observation series of inflow and outflow. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to reduce the multidimensionality of the metrics and time and to determine impact patterns and their interannual shifts. Statistically significant driving factors of impact pattern variations were identified. We found that dam regulation resulted in four main impact classes on the flow regimes and that the regulated capacity was interannually attenuated from 1973 to 2010. The impact patterns alternated between the highly regulated class with extremely decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency and the slightly regulated class with extremely increasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency from 1973 to 1987 and then stabilized in the latter class from 1988 to 2001. After 2001, the pattern gradually changed from the moderately regulated class with moderately decreasing flow magnitude, extreme variability, and extreme intermittency to the slightly regulated class with slightly decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and no intermittency. Decreasing precipitation and increasing drought were the primary drivers for the interannual variations of the impact patterns, and inflow variability was the most significant factor affecting the patterns, followed by flow event frequency and duration, magnitude, and timing. This study shows that the use of interannual characteristics can help to gain more insight into the impact of dam regulation on flow regimes and will provide important information to scientifically guide the multi-purpose regulation of dams.

Multi-year application of WRF-CAM5 over East Asia-Part II: Interannual variability, trend analysis, and aerosol indirect effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; He, Jian

2017-09-01

Following a comprehensive evaluation of WRF-CAM5 in Part I, Part II describes analyses of interannual variability, multi-year variation trends, and the direct, indirect, and total effects of anthropogenic aerosols. The interannual variations of chemical column and surface concentrations, and ozone (O3)/particulate matter (PM) indicators are strongly correlated to anthropogenic emission changes. Despite model biases, the model captures well the observed interannual variations of temperature at 2-m, cloud fraction, shortwave cloud forcing, downwelling shortwave radiation, cloud droplet number concentration, column O3, and column formaldehyde (HCHO) for the whole domain. While the model reproduces the volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited regimes of O3 chemistry at sites in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET) and the degree of sulfate neutralization at the EANET sites, it has limited capability in capturing the interannual variations of the ratio of O3 and nitrogen dioxide (O3/NO2) and PM chemical regime indicators, due to uncertainties in the emissions of precursors for O3 and secondary PM, the model assumption for ammonium bisulfate (NH4HSO4) as well as lack of gas/particle partitioning of total ammonia and total nitrate. While the variation trends in multi-year periods in aerosol optical depth and column concentrations of carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and NO2 are mainly caused by anthropogenic emissions, those of major meteorological and cloud variables partly reflect feedbacks of chemistry to meteorological variables. The impacts of anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects either dominate or play an important role in the aerosol total effects for most cloud and chemical predictions, whereas anthropogenic aerosol direct effects influence most meteorological and radiation variables. The direct, indirect, and total effects of anthropogenic aerosols exhibit a strong interannual variability in 2001, 2006, and 2011.

A century of hydrological variability and trends in the Fraser River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Déry, Stephen J.; Hernández-Henríquez, Marco A.; Owens, Philip N.; Parkes, Margot W.; Petticrew, Ellen L.

2012-06-01

This study examines the 1911-2010 variability and trends in annual streamflow at 139 sites across the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The Fraser River is the largest Canadian waterway flowing to the Pacific Ocean and is one of the world’s greatest salmon rivers. Our analyses reveal high runoff rates and low interannual variability in alpine and coastal rivers, and low runoff rates and high interannual variability in most streams in BC’s interior. The interannual variability in streamflow is also low in rivers such as the Adams, Chilko, Quesnel and Stuart where the principal salmon runs of the Fraser River occur. A trend analysis shows a spatially coherent signal with increasing interannual variability in streamflow across the FRB in recent decades, most notably in spring and summer. The upward trend in the coefficient of variation in annual runoff coincides with a period of near-normal annual runoff for the Fraser River at Hope. The interannual variability in streamflow is greater in regulated rather than natural systems; however, it is unclear whether it is predominantly flow regulation that leads to these observed differences. Environmental changes such as rising air temperatures, more frequent polarity changes in large-scale climate teleconnections such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and retreating glaciers may be contributing to the greater range in annual runoff fluctuations across the FRB. This has implications for ecological processes throughout the basin, for example affecting migrating and spawning salmon, a keystone species vital to First Nations communities as well as to commercial and recreational fisheries. To exemplify this linkage between variable flows and biological responses, the unusual FRB runoff anomalies observed in 2010 are discussed in the context of that year’s sockeye salmon run. As the climate continues to warm, greater variability in annual streamflow, and hence in hydrological extremes, may influence ecological processes and human usage throughout the FRB in the 21st century.

Troposphere-stratosphere (surface-55 km) monthly winter general circulation statistics for the Northern Hemisphere Interannual variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geller, M. A.; Wu, M.-F.; Gelman, M. E.

1984-01-01

Individual monthly mean general circulation statistics for the Northern Hemisphere winters of 1978-79, 1979-80, 1980-81, and 1981-82 are examined for the altitude region from the earth's surface to 55 km. Substantial interannual variability is found in the mean zonal geostrophic wind; planetary waves with zonal wavenumber one and two; the heat and momentum fluxes; and the divergence of the Eliassen-Palm flux. These results are compared with previous studies by other workers. This variability in the monthly means is examined further by looking at both time-latitude sections at constant pressure levels and time-height sections at constant latitudes. The implications of this interannual variability for verifying models and interpreting observations are discussed.

Interannual Atmospheric Variability Simulated by a Mars GCM: Impacts on the Polar Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.

2003-01-01

It is often assumed that in the absence of year-to-year dust variations, Mars weather and climate are very repeatable, at least on decadal scales. Recent multi-annual simulations of a Mars GCM reveal however that significant interannual variations may occur with constant dust conditions. In particular, interannual variability (IAV) appears to be associated with the spectrum of atmospheric disturbances that arise due to baroclinic instability. One quantity that shows significant IAV is the poleward heat flux associated with these waves. These variations and their impacts on the polar heat balance will be examined here.

Wetland inventory and variability over the last two decades at a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prigent, C.; Papa, F.; Aires, F.; Rossow, W. B.; Matthews, E.

2011-12-01

Remote sensing techniques employing visible, infrared, and microwave observations offer varying success in estimating wetlands and inundation extent and in monitoring their natural and anthropogenic variations. Low spatial resolution (e.g., 30 km) limits detection to large wetlands but has the advantage of frequent coverage. High spatial resolution (e.g., 100 m), while providing more environmental information, suffers from poor temporal resolution, with observations for just high/low water or warm/cold seasons. Most existing wetland data sets are limited to a few regions, for specific times in the year. The only global inventories of wetland dynamics over a long period of time is derived from a remote-sensing technique employing a suite of complementary satellite observations: it uses passive microwave land-surface microwave emissivities, scatterometer responses, and visible and near infrared reflectances. Combining observations from different instruments makes it possible to capitalize on their complementary strengths, and to extract maximum information about inundation characteristics. The technique is globally applicable without any tuning for particular environments. The satellite data are used to calculate monthly-mean inundated fractions of equal-area grid cells (0.25°x0.25° at the equator), taking into account the contribution of vegetation to the passive microwave signal (Prigent et al., 2001, 2007). Several adjustments to the initial technique have been applied to account for changes in satellite instruments (Papa et al., 2010). The resulting data set now covers 1993-2008 and has been carefully evaluated. We will present the inter-annual variability of the water surface extents under different environments, and relate these variations to other hydrological variables such as river height, precipitation, water runoff, or Grace data. Natural wetlands are the world's largest methane source and dominate the inter-annual variability of atmospheric methane concentrations, with up to 90% of the global methane flux anomalies related to variations in the wetland extent from some estimation. Our data set quantifying inundation dynamics throughout the world's natural wetlands provides a unique opportunity to reduce uncertainties in the role of natural wetlands in the inter-annual variability of the growth rate of atmospheric methane. Papa, F., C. Prigent, C. Jimenez, F. Aires, and W. B. Rossow, Interannual variability of surface water extent at global scale, 1993-2004, JGR, 115, D12111, doi:10.1029/2009JD012674, 2010. Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews, Global inundation dynamics inferred from multiple satellite observations, 1993-2000, JGR, 112, D12107, doi:10.1029/2006JD007847, 2007. Prigent, C., E. Matthews, F. Aires, and W. B. Rossow, Remote sensing of global wetland dynamics with multiple satellite data sets, GRL, 28 , 4631-4634, 2001.

Interannual control of plankton communities by deep winter mixing and prey/predator interactions in the NW Mediterranean: Results from a 30-year 3D modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auger, P. A.; Ulses, C.; Estournel, C.; Stemmann, L.; Somot, S.; Diaz, F.

2014-05-01

A realistic modeling approach is designed to address the role of winter mixing on the interannual variability of plankton dynamics in the north-western (NW) Mediterranean basin. For the first time, a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model (Eco3m-S) covering a 30-year period (1976-2005) is validated on available in situ and satellite data for the NW Mediterranean. In this region, cold, dry winds in winter often lead to deep convection and strong upwelling of nutrients into the euphotic layer. High nutrient contents at the end of winter then support the development of a strong spring bloom of phytoplankton. Model results indicate that annual primary production is not affected by winter mixing due to seasonal balance (minimum in winter and maximum in spring). However, the total annual water column-integrated phytoplankton biomass appears to be favored by winter mixing because zooplankton grazing activity is low in winter and early spring. This reduced grazing is explained here by the rarefaction of prey due to both light limitation and the effect of mixing-induced dilution on prey/predator interactions. A negative impact of winter mixing on winter zooplankton biomass is generally simulated except for mesozooplankton. This difference is assumed to stem from the lower parameterized mortality, top trophic position and detritivorous diet of mesozooplankton in the model. Moreover, model suggests that the variability of annual mesozooplankton biomass is principally modulated by the effects of winter mixing on winter biomass. Thus, interannual variability of winter nutrient contents in the euphotic layer, resulting from winter mixing, would control spring primary production and thus annual mesozooplankton biomass. Our results show a bottom-up control of mesozooplankton communities, as observed at a coastal location of the Ligurian Sea.

Examination of snowmelt over Western Himalayas using remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Sarita; Kar, Sarat C.; Bhatla, R.

2016-07-01

Snowmelt variability in the Western Himalayas has been examined using remotely sensed snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered area (SCA) datasets. It is seen that climatological snowfall and snowmelt amount varies in the Himalayan region from west to east and from month to month. Maximum snowmelt occurs at the elevation zone between 4500 and 5000 m. As the spring and summer approach and snowmelt begins, a large amount of snow melts in May. Strength and weaknesses of temperature-based snowmelt models have been analyzed for this region by computing the snowmelt factor or the degree-day factor (DDF). It is seen that average DDF in the Himalayas is more in April and less in July. During spring and summer months, melting rate is higher in the areas that have height above 2500 m. The region that lies between 4500 and 5000 m elevation zones contributes toward more snowmelt with higher melting rate. Snowmelt models have been developed to estimate interannual variations of monthly snowmelt amount using the DDF, observed SWE, and surface air temperature from reanalysis datasets. In order to further improve the estimate snowmelt, regression between observed and modeled snowmelt has been carried out and revised DDF values have been computed. It is found that both the models do not capture the interannual variability of snowmelt in April. The skill of the model is moderate in May and June, but the skill is relatively better in July. In order to explain this skill, interannual variability (IAV) of surface air temperature has been examined. Compared to July, in April, the IAV of temperature is large indicating that a climatological value of DDF is not sufficient to explain the snowmelt rate in April. Snow area and snow amount depletion curves over Himalayas indicate that in a small area at high altitude, snow is still observed with large SWE whereas over most of the region, all the snow has melted.

Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew G.; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

2018-05-01

Six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Coupled 2.0 configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalysis data for their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of precipitation over China. To analyse the sensitivity to air-sea coupling and horizontal resolution, atmosphere-only and coupled integrations at atmospheric horizontal resolutions of N96, N216 and N512 (corresponding to ˜ 200, 90 and 40 km in the zonal direction at the equator, respectively) are analysed. The mean and interannual variance of seasonal precipitation are too high in all simulations over China but improve with finer resolution and coupling. Empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to simulated and observed precipitation to identify spatial patterns of temporally coherent interannual variability in seasonal precipitation. To connect these patterns to large-scale atmospheric and coupled air-sea processes, atmospheric and oceanic fields are regressed onto the corresponding seasonal mean time series. All simulations reproduce the observed leading pattern of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are the four leading patterns associated with the observed physical mechanisms. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. However, finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. This shows that evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient. The EOT analysis adds knowledge about coherent variability and associated mechanisms.

Phytoplankton class-specific primary production in the world's oceans: Seasonal and interannual variability from satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uitz, Julia; Claustre, Hervé; Gentili, Bernard; Stramski, Dariusz

2010-09-01

We apply an innovative approach to time series data of surface chlorophyll from satellite observations with SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) to estimate the primary production associated with three major phytoplankton classes (micro-, nano-, and picophytoplankton) within the world's oceans. Statistical relationships, determined from an extensive in situ database of phytoplankton pigments, are used to infer class-specific vertical profiles of chlorophyll a concentration from satellite-derived surface chlorophyll a. This information is combined with a primary production model and class-specific photophysiological parameters to compute global seasonal fields of class-specific primary production over a 10-year period from January 1998 through December 2007. Microphytoplankton (mostly diatoms) appear as a major contributor to total primary production in coastal upwelling systems (70%) and temperate and subpolar regions (50%) during the spring-summer season. The contribution of picophytoplankton (e.g., prokaryotes) reaches maximum values (45%) in subtropical oligotrophic gyres. Nanophytoplankton (e.g., prymnesiophytes) provide a ubiquitous, substantial contribution (30-60%). Annual global estimates of class-specific primary production amount to 15 Gt C yr-1 (32% of total), 20 Gt C yr-1 (44%) and 11 Gt C yr-1 (24%) for micro-, nano-, and picophytoplankton, respectively. The analysis of interannual variations revealed large anomalies in class-specific primary production as compared to the 10-year mean cycle in both the productive North Atlantic basin and the more stable equatorial Pacific upwelling. Microphytoplankton show the largest range of variability of the three phytoplankton classes on seasonal and interannual time scales. Our results contribute to an understanding and quantification of carbon cycle in the ocean.

Interannual Variability in Global Soil Respiration on a 0.5 Degree Grid Cell Basis (1980-1994)

DOE Data Explorer

Raich, James W. [Iowa State University, Ames, IA (USA); Potter, Christopher S. [NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Moffett Field, Mountain View, CA (United States); Bhagawat, Dwipen [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Olson, L. M. [CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN

2003-08-01

The Principal Investigators used a climate-driven regression model to develop spatially resolved estimates of soil-CO2 emissions from the terrestrial land surface for each month from January 1980 to December 1994, to evaluate the effects of interannual variations in climate on global soil-to-atmosphere CO2 fluxes. The mean annual global soil-CO2 flux over this 15-y period was estimated to be 80.4 (range 79.3-81.8) Pg C. Monthly variations in global soil-CO2 emissions followed closely the mean temperature cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Globally, soil-CO2 emissions reached their minima in February and peaked in July and August. Tropical and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests contributed more soil-derived CO2 to the atmosphere than did any other vegetation type (~30% of the total) and exhibited a biannual cycle in their emissions. Soil-CO2 emissions in other biomes exhibited a single annual cycle that paralleled the seasonal temperature cycle. Interannual variability in estimated global soil-CO2 production is substantially less than is variability in net carbon uptake by plants (i.e., net primary productivity). Thus, soils appear to buffer atmospheric CO2 concentrations against far more dramatic seasonal and interannual differences in plant growth. Within seasonally dry biomes (savannas, bushlands, and deserts), interannual variability in soil-CO2 emmissions correlated significantly with interannual differences in precipitation. At the global scale, however, annual soil-CO2 fluxes correlated with mean annual temperature, with a slope of 3.3 PgCY-1 per degree Celsius. Although the distribution of precipitation influences seasonal and spatial patterns of soil-CO2 emissions, global warming is likely to stimulate CO2 emissions from soils.

Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part III: Interannual variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shmakin, A.B.; Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

2002-01-01

The Land Dynamics (LaD) model is tested by comparison with observations of interannual variations in discharge from 44 large river basins for which relatively accurate time series of monthly precipitation (a primary model input) have recently been computed. When results are pooled across all basins, the model explains 67% of the interannual variance of annual runoff ratio anomalies (i.e., anomalies of annual discharge volume, normalized by long-term mean precipitation volume). The new estimates of basin precipitation appear to offer an improvement over those from a state-of-the-art analysis of global precipitation (the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation, CMAP), judging from comparisons of parallel model runs and of analyses of precipitation-discharge correlations. When the new precipitation estimates are used, the performance of the LaD model is comparable to, but not significantly better than, that of a simple, semiempirical water-balance relation that uses only annual totals of surface net radiation and precipitation. This implies that the LaD simulations of interannual runoff variability do not benefit substantially from information on geographical variability of land parameters or seasonal structure of interannual variability of precipitation. The aforementioned analyses necessitated the development of a method for downscaling of long-term monthly precipitation data to the relatively short timescales necessary for running the model. The method merges the long-term data with a reference dataset of 1-yr duration, having high temporal resolution. The success of the method, for the model and data considered here, was demonstrated in a series of model-model comparisons and in the comparisons of modeled and observed interannual variations of basin discharge.

Controls on the interannual variability of hypoxia in a subtropical embayment and its adjacent waters in the Guangdong coastal upwelling system, northern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Heng; Cheng, Weicong; Chen, Yuren; Yu, Liuqian; Gong, Wenping

2018-06-01

Coastal embayments located downwind of large rivers under an upwelling-favorable wind are prone to develop low-oxygen or hypoxic conditions in their bottom water. One such embayment is Mirs Bay, off the Guangdong coast, which is affected by upwelling and the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) plume during summer. The relative importance of physical and biochemical processes on the interannual variability of hypoxia in Mirs Bay and its adjacent waters was investigated using statistical analyses of monthly hydrographic and water quality monitoring data from 2001 to 2015. The results reveal that the southwesterly wind duration and the PRE river discharge together explain 49% of the interannual variability in the size of the hypoxic area, whereas inclusion of the nutrient concentrations inside Mirs Bay and phytoplankton on the shelf explains 75% of the interannual variability in the size of the hypoxic area. This finding suggests that the interannual variability of hypoxia in Mirs Bay is regulated by coupled physical and biochemical processes. Increase of the hypoxic area under a longer-lasting southwesterly wind is caused by increased stratification, extended bottom water residence time, and onshore transport of a low-oxygen water mass induced by stable upwelling. In contrast, a reduction in the size of the hypoxic area may be attributed to a decrease in the surface water residence time of the particulate organic matter outside Mirs Bay due to increased discharge from the PRE. The results also show that the effects of allochthonous particulate organic matter outside Mirs Bay on bottom hypoxia cannot be neglected.

The interannual variability of the Haines Index over North America

Treesearch

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; Joseph J. Charney

2013-01-01

The Haines index (HI) is a fire-weather index that is widely used as an indicator of the potential for dry, low-static-stability air in the lower atmosphere to contribute to erratic fire behavior or large fire growth. This study examines the interannual variability of HI over North America and its relationship to indicators of large-scale circulation anomalies. The...

Nine years of mass transport data in the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio; MachíN, Francisco; VéLez-Belchí, Pedro; López-Laatzen, Federico; Borges, Rafael; BeníTez-Barrios, Verónica; HernáNdez-Guerra, Alonso

2010-09-01

One of the longest current meter time series in the Lanzarote Passage in the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre has been used to determine and quantify the 9-year mean transport, the inter-annual and seasonal mass transport variability for the three water masses present in the area. Results show North Atlantic Central Water (NACW) flowing southward in the upper levels with a mean mass transport of -0.81 ± 1.48 Sv, Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) flowing northward at intermediate levels with a mean transport of +0.09 ± 0.57 Sv and Mediterranean Water (MW) flowing southward in the deep part of the passage with a mean transport of -0.05 ± 0.17 Sv. Harmonic and wavelet analysis show the presence of a seasonal pattern in the passage for the three water masses. A maximum southward transport in winter and spring has been observed for the NACW followed by a minimum in summer and fall. Near zero values during winter and spring are found for AAIW, with a maximum northward value in summer and a negative value in fall, when this water mass reverses its flow. MW has a similar seasonal pattern to NACW. The vertical structure in the Lanzarote Passage can be approximated by four significant oscillatory modes which cumulatively explain 86.4% of the variance. The strong transport fluctuation found at the seasonal and inter-annual timescales demonstrates that the Eastern Boundary Current transport has a strong impact on meridional overturning estimates, thus indicating that to understand Meridional Overturning Circulation variability, these transport estimates at the eastern Atlantic margin are necessary.

Climate Downscaling over Nordeste, Brazil, Using the NCEP RSM97.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Liqiang; Ferran Moncunill, David; Li, Huilan; Divino Moura, Antonio; de Assis de Souza Filho, Francisco

2005-02-01

The NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM), with horizontal resolution of 60 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM4.5 AGCM (T42) simulations forced with observed SSTs over northeast Brazil. An ensemble of 10 runs for the period January-June 1971-2000 was used in this study. The RSM can resolve the spatial patterns of observed seasonal precipitation and capture the interannual variability of observed seasonal precipitation as well. The AGCM bias in displacement of the Atlantic ITCZ is partially corrected in the RSM. The RSM probability distribution function of seasonal precipitation anomalies is in better agreement with observations than that of the driving AGCM. Good potential prediction skills are demonstrated by the RSM in predicting the interannual variability of regional seasonal precipitation. The RSM can also capture the interannual variability of observed precipitation at intraseasonal time scales, such as precipitation intensity distribution and dry spells. A drought index and a flooding index were adopted to indicate the severity of drought and flooding conditions, and their interannual variability was reproduced by the RSM. The overall RSM performance in the downscaled climate of the ECHAM4.5 AGCM is satisfactory over Nordeste. The primary deficiency is a systematic dry bias for precipitation simulation.

Sole larval supply to coastal nurseries: Interannual variability and connectivity at interregional and interpopulation scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savina, M.; Lunghi, M.; Archambault, B.; Baulier, L.; Huret, M.; Le Pape, O.

2016-05-01

Simulating fish larval drift helps assess the sensitivity of recruitment variability to early life history. An individual-based model (IBM) coupled to a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate common sole larval supply from spawning areas to coastal and estuarine nursery grounds at the meta-population scale (4 assessed stocks), from the southern North Sea to the Bay of Biscay (Western Europe) on a 26-yr time series, from 1982 to 2007. The IBM allowed each particle released to be transported by currents, to grow depending on temperature, to migrate vertically depending on development stage, to die along pelagic stages or to settle on a nursery, representing the life history from spawning to metamorphosis. The model outputs were analysed to explore interannual patterns in the amounts of settled sole larvae at the population scale; they suggested: (i) a low connectivity between populations at the larval stage, (ii) a moderate influence of interannual variation in the spawning biomass, (iii) dramatic consequences of life history on the abundance of settling larvae and (iv) the effects of climate variability on the interannual variability of the larvae settlement success.

The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Rezny, Mike

2015-04-01

In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures () warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/sea warming contrast even in equilibrium. Similarly, the interannual variability of is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/sea contrast in natural variability. This work investigates the land/sea contrast in natural variability based on global observations, coupled general circulation model simulations and idealised atmospheric general circulation model simulations with different SST forcings. The land/sea temperature contrast in interannual variability is found to exist in observations and models to a varying extent in global, tropical and extra-tropical bands. There is agreement between models and observations in the tropics but not the extra-tropics. Causality in the land-sea relationship is explored with modelling experiments forced with prescribed SSTs, where an amplification of the imposed SST variability is seen over land. The amplification of to tropical SST anomalies is due to the enhanced upper level atmospheric warming that corresponds with tropical moist convection over oceans leading to upper level temperature variations that are larger in amplitude than the source SST anomalies. This mechanism is similar to that proposed for explaining the equilibrium global warming land/sea warming contrast. The link of the to the dominant mode of tropical and global interannual climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is found to be an indirect and delayed connection. ENSO SST variability affects the oceans outside the tropical Pacific, which in turn leads to a further, amplified and delayed response of.

How are interannual modes of variability IOD, ENSO, SAM, AMO excited by natural and anthropogenic forcing?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maher, Nicola; Marotzke, Jochem

2017-04-01

Natural climate variability is found in observations, paleo-proxies, and climate models. Such climate variability can be intrinsic internal variability or externally forced, for example by changes in greenhouse gases or large volcanic eruptions. There are still questions concerning how external forcing, both natural (e.g., volcanic eruptions and solar variability) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gases and ozone) may excite both interannual modes of variability in the climate system. This project aims to address some of these problems, utilising the large ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR climate model. In this study we investigate the statistics of four modes of interannual variability, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using the 100-member ensemble of MPI-ESM-LR the statistical properties of these modes (amplitude and standard deviation) can be assessed over time. Here we compare the properties in the pre-industrial control run, historical run and future scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP2.6) and present preliminary results.

Interannual variability of Dissolved Oxygen values around the Balearic Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbín, R.; Aparicio, A.; López-Jurado, J. L.; Flexas, M. M.

2012-04-01

Periodic movements of the trawl fishing fleet at Mallorca Island suggest a seasonal variability of the demersal resources, associated with hydrodynamic variability. The area where these commercial fisheries operate extends from the north to the southeast of Mallorca channel, between Mallorca and Ibiza Islands. It is thus affected by the different hydrodynamic conditions of the two sub-basins of the western Mediterranean (the Balearic and the Algerian sub-basins), with different geomorphologic and hydrodynamic characteristics. To characterize this hydrodynamic variability, hydrographic data collected around the Balearic Islands since 2001 with CTDs were analized [1]. Hydrographic parameters were processed according to the standard protocols. Dissolved oxygen (DO) was calibrated onboard using the winkler method. Temperature and salinity were used to characterize the different water masses. At the Western Mediterranean, the maximum values of DO in the water column are observed in the sur- face waters during winter (> 6.0 ml /l), when these water in contact with the atmosphere absorb large amount of oxygen, favored by low winter temperatures and notable turbulence. Later in the spring, the gradual increase of temperature, and the beginning of stratification and biological activity, lead to a decrease of oxygen concentration mainly in surface waters. During summer, these values continue to reduce in the surface mixed layer. Below it, and due to the biological activity, an increase is observed, giving rise to the absolute maximum of this parameter (> 6.5 ml /l). During autumn, the atmospheric forcing breaks the stratification producing a homogenization of surface water. At this moment, DO shows intermediate values. Below the surface waters, about 200 m, a relative maximum corresponding to the seasonal Winter Intermediate Waters (WIW) can be observed. Intermediate waters, between 400 and 600 m, reveal an oxygen minimum (4.0 ml /l) associated to the Levantine Intermediate Waters (LIW) and underneath, the Western Mediterranean Deep Waters (WMDW) show a slight increase of these values (> 4.5 ml /l). Interannual variability of DO at the Balearic and the Algerian sub-basins and in the different water masses will be presented. A systematic difference (> 0.10 ml/l) is observed at intermediate and deep waters between the oxygen con- tent in the Balearic and Algerian sub-basins. This could be explained in terms of the longer path these water masses have to cover around the Mallorca and Menorca Islands, which implies a longer residence time and consumption as a result of respiration and decay of organic matter. During some campaigns minimum DO values (≈ 3.8 ml/l) were found in this area which are smaller that the values usually reported for the Mediterranean [2, 3, 4]. Different possible causes as the influence of the Easter Mediterranean Transient, the reported increase of surface temperature or just the interannual variability, will be discussed. [1] J. L. López-Jurado, J. M. García-Lafuente, L. Cano, et al., Oceanologica acta, vol. 18, no. 2, 1995. [2] T. Packard, H. Minas, B. Coste, R. Martinez, M. Bonin, J. Gostan, P. Garfield, J. Christensen, Q. Dortch, M. Minas, et al., Deep Sea Research Part A. Oceanographic Research Papers, vol. 35, no. 7, 1988. [3] B. Manca, M. Burca, A. Giorgetti, C. Coatanoan, M. Garcia,and A. Iona, Journal of marine systems, vol. 48, no. 1-4, 2004. [4] A. Miller, "Mediterranean sea atlas of temperature, salinity, and oxygen. profiles and data from cruises of RV Atlantis and RV Chain," tech. rep., Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts, 1970.

Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

2011-01-01

On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

Interannual variability of terrestrial NEP and its attributions to carbon uptake amplitude and period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, S.

2015-12-01

Earth system exhibits strong interannual variability (IAV) in the global carbon cycle as reflected in the year-to-year anomalies of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Although various analyses suggested that land ecosystems contribute mostly to the IAV of atmospheric CO2 concentration, processes leading to the IAV in the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle are far from clear and hinder our effort in predicting the IAV of global C cycle. Previous studies on IAV of global C cycle have focused on the regulation of climatic variables in tropical or semiarid areas, but generated inconsistent conclusions. Using long-term eddy-flux measurements of net ecosystem production (NEP), atmospheric CO2 inversion NEP, and the MODIS-derived gross primary production (GPP), we demonstrate that seasonal carbon uptake amplitude (CUA) and period (CUP) are two key processes that control the IAV in the terrestrial C cycle. The two processes together explain 78% of the variations in the IAV in eddy covariance NEP, 70% in global atmospheric inversed NEP, and 53% in the IAV of GPP. Moreover, the three lines of evidence consistently show that variability in CUA is much more important than that of CUP in determining the variation of NEP at most eddy-flux sites, and most grids of global NEP and GPP. Our results suggest that the maximum carbon uptake potential in the peak-growing season is a determinant process of global C cycle internnual variability and carbon uptake period may play less important role than previous expectations. This study uncovers the most parsimonious, proximate processes underlying the IAV in global C cycle of the Earth system. Future research is needed to identify how climate factors affect the IAV in terrestrial C cycle through their influence on CUA and CUP.

Spatiotemporal variations of the surface Kuroshio east of Taiwan Island derived from satellite altimetry data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Jifeng; Yin, Baoshu; Xu, Zhenhua; Li, Delei

2018-01-01

Spatiotemporal variation of the surface Kuroshio east of Taiwan Island is investigated by quantitatively analyzing 23-year (1993-2015) sea surface Absolute Dynamic Topography data. The annual mean state of the Kuroshio is shown, with a flow width 136 km and surface transport 7.75×104m2/s. The corresponding standard deviations of these are 28 km and 2.14×104m2/s. Results of power spectrum analysis indicate that the primary periods of Kuroshio surface transport east of Taiwan Island are 1 and 2.8 years, respectively. Spatially, the Kuroshio surface transport southeast of Taiwan Island has greater variability than that to its northeast. That transport showed strong seasonality, with a maximum 8.8×104m2/s in summer and minimum 7.5×10 4 m 2 /s in winter, which was mainly caused by local monsoon winds. A linear long-term upward trend of Kuroshio surface transport during 1993-2015 was found, during which the mean, southeast, and northeast of the Kuroshio east of Taiwan Island increased by 0.30×10 4, 0.22×10 4 and 0.36×10 4 m 2 /s, respectively. Correlation and composite analysis show that the Philippines-Taiwan Oscillation (PTO) is important in the interannual variability of the Kuroshio. PTO-induced relative intensity of anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies is the dominant influence on the interannual variability of the Kuroshio east of Taiwan Island.

Effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on sea level anomalies along the Gulf of Mexico coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Andrew J.; Griffin, Melissa L.; Morey, Steven L.; Smith, Shawn R.; O'Brien, James J.

2007-05-01

Analyses of daily sea level data show the impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Data from three stations (St. Petersburg, Florida, Pensacola, Florida, and Galveston, Texas), all of which have at least 50 years of daily observations, are processed to identify the interannual signals. Although low frequency (interannual) signals in the sea level anomaly time series are not clearly evident, a low frequency modulation of the extreme anomaly events (upper 10% or lower 10% of the distributions) is identified. Results show that sea level variability is seasonally dependent at all stations, with maximum variability in the winter months. In the eastern GOM, low sea level events in the winter months are more frequent during El Niño (warm phase) conditions when compared to a neutral ENSO phase. This is consistent with ENSO-related changes in the location where extratropical atmospheric low pressure systems form and in the tracks of these weather systems. The impacts of tropical systems in the summer through early fall months on coastal sea level in the GOM are shown by infrequent extreme high and low anomalies coinciding with individual storms. However, the number of storms affecting the data record from a particular sea level station is too small to confirm ENSO-related variability. Statistical methods are employed to demonstrate a significant link between extreme sea level anomalies in the GOM and ENSO during the October to March period.

An underestimated role of precipitation frequency in regulating summer soil moisture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Chaoyang; Chen, Jing M.; Pumpanen, Jukka

2012-04-26

Soil moisture induced droughts are expected to become more frequent under future global climate change. Precipitation has been previously assumed to be mainly responsible for variability in summer soil moisture. However, little is known about the impacts of precipitation frequency on summer soil moisture, either interannually or spatially. To better understand the temporal and spatial drivers of summer drought, 415 site yr measurements observed at 75 flux sites world wide were used to analyze the temporal and spatial relationships between summer soil water content (SWC) and the precipitation frequencies at various temporal scales, i.e., from half-hourly, 3, 6, 12 andmore » 24 h measurements. Summer precipitation was found to be an indicator of interannual SWC variability with r of 0.49 (p < 0.001) for the overall dataset. However, interannual variability in summer SWC was also significantly correlated with the five precipitation frequencies and the sub-daily precipitation frequencies seemed to explain the interannual SWC variability better than the total of precipitation. Spatially, all these precipitation frequencies were better indicators of summer SWC than precipitation totals, but these better performances were only observed in non-forest ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that precipitation frequency may play an important role in regulating both interannual and spatial variations of summer SWC, which has probably been overlooked or underestimated. However, the spatial interpretation should carefully consider other factors, such as the plant functional types and soil characteristics of diverse ecoregions.« less

Inter-annual variability in spring abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus from the overwintering population in the southeastern Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupont, Nicolas; Bagøien, Espen; Melle, Webjørn

2017-03-01

Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea, where it plays a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This paper analyses a 17-year time series, 1996-2012, on C. finmarchicus collected within the Atlantic Water mass along the Svinøy transect in the southeastern Norwegian Sea. We use the spring abundance of adult as a proxy for the size of C. finmarchicus' overwintered population. The inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus in the 200-0 m depth-stratum is assessed while accounting for spring population development to the adult stage represented by day of year for sampling, inter-annual changes in timing of population development, and spatial differences. For the most oceanic stations, a significant inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus was revealed using generalized additive models (GAM). This trend primarily consists in an increase prior to year 2000 and a decrease between years 2000 and ca. 2011. For the stations closer to the coast, the identified inter-annual trend is a decrease during a longer period from the late 90s until ca. 2011. From 2000 to 2011, our estimates suggest a 50% decrease for the most oceanic stations, and as much as an 81% decrease for the stations closer to the coast. In addition the results suggest a consistent change in phenology over the years and the stations. The predicted spring peak of overwintered adult population abundance is suggested to become shorter by 3 days, and the predicted maximum of abundance to take place 4 days earlier over the 17 years of the time-series. The results highlight significant changes in intensity and timing of the overwintered population of a key zooplankton species in the Norwegian Sea that may have important implications on the scale of an entire ecosystem.

Intra- and interannual dynamics of dinoflagellate bloom species in the James River, an urban tidal estuary in Virginia, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echevarria, M. A.; Mulholland, M. R.; Filippino, K.; Egerton, T.

2016-02-01

Algal blooms occur throughout the year in the tidal tributaries of Chesapeake Bay. The James River is the largest river in Virginia and third largest tributary of the Bay. Of the nearly 1500 species found in the estuary, two dinoflagellates; Heterocapsa triquetra and Cochlodinium polykrikoides have historically formed large seasonal algal blooms in spring and summer respectively, lasting several weeks to months annually. Additionally, the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium monilatum has emerged as an annual late summer bloom producer with increasing abundance in the region over the last nine years. These blooms have occurred in the lower James River, including meso- and polyhaline waters. Presented here are comparisons of the temporal and spatial extent and magnitude of these three dinoflagellate species over a two-year period (2014-2015). In 2014 dinoflagellate abundance was low compared to prior years. In contrast, massive spring and summer blooms occurred in 2015 with extended durations. In 2015, H. triquetra reached a maximum concentration of >84,000 cells/ml, with densities >103 cells/mL observed over a six week period, compared to no visible bloom the year before and a maximum of only 6200 cells/ml. Similarly in 2015, C. polykrikoides reached maximum cell densities of >41,000 cells/ml, with densities >103 cells/mL observed over a seven week period, compared to a maximum the year before of <11,000 cells/ml. A. monilatum reached a maximum of >7,500 cells/ml over a three week period in August 2015, with no bloom recorded in 2014. Multiple environmental parameters likely contributed to the interannual variability in bloom formation and duration. Temperature appeared to be a significant factor, with cooler than average surface water during the summer of 2014. In addition, the effect of prevailing wind patterns, precipitation, salinity, nutrient concentrations and sediment re-suspension were examined.

Drivers of Intra-Summer Seasonality and Daily Variability of Coastal Low Cloudiness in California Subregions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, R. E.; Iacobellis, S.; Gershunov, A.; Williams, P.; Cayan, D. R.

2014-12-01

Summertime low cloud intrusion into the terrestrial west coast of North America impacts human, ecological, and logistical systems. Over a broad region of the West Coast, summer (May - September) coastal low cloudiness (CLC) varies coherently on interannual to interdecadal timescales and has been found to be organized by North Pacific sea surface temperature. Broad-scale studies of low stratiform cloudiness over ocean basins also find that the season of maximum low stratus corresponds to the season of maximum lower tropospheric stability (LTS) or estimated inversion strength. We utilize a 18-summer record of CLC derived from NASA/NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) at 4km resolution over California (CA) to make a more nuanced spatial and temporal examination of intra-summer variability in CLC and its drivers. We find that uniform spatial coherency over CA is not apparent for intra-summer variability in CLC. On monthly to daily timescales, at least two distinct subregions of coastal California (CA) can be identified, where relationships between meteorology and stratus variability appear to change throughout summer in each subregion. While north of Point Conception and offshore the timing of maximum CLC is closely coincident with maximum LTS, in the Southern CA Bight and northern Baja region, maximum CLC occurs up to about a month before maximum LTS. It appears that summertime CLC in this southern region is not as strongly related as in the northern region to LTS. In particular, although the relationship is strong in May and June, starting in July the daily relationship between LTS and CLC in the south begins to deteriorate. Preliminary results indicate a moderate association between decreased CLC in the south and increased precipitable water content above 850 hPa on daily time scales beginning in July. Relationships between daily CLC variability and meteorological variables including winds, inland temperatures, relative humidity, and geopotential heights within and above the marine boundary layer are investigated and dissected by month, CA subregion, and cloud height. The rich spatial detail of the satellite derived CLC record is utilized to examine the propagation in time and space of CLC on synoptic scales within and among subregions.

Nonlinear dynamics and predictability in the atmospheric sciences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghil, M.; Kimoto, M.; Neelin, J. D.

1991-01-01

Systematic applications of nonlinear dynamics to studies of the atmosphere and climate are reviewed for the period 1987-1990. Problems discussed include paleoclimatic applications, low-frequency atmospheric variability, and interannual variability of the ocean-atmosphere system. Emphasis is placed on applications of the successive bifurcation approach and the ergodic theory of dynamical systems to understanding and prediction of intraseasonal, interannual, and Quaternary climate changes.

Analysis of the trade-off between high crop yield and low yield instability at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Ari, Tamara; Makowski, David

2016-10-01

Yield dynamics of major crops species vary remarkably among continents. Worldwide distribution of cropland influences both the expected levels and the interannual variability of global yields. An expansion of cultivated land in the most productive areas could theoretically increase global production, but also increase global yield instability if the most productive regions are characterized by high interannual yield variability. In this letter, we use portfolio analysis to quantify the tradeoff between the expected values and the interannual variance of global yield. We compute optimal frontiers for four crop species i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat and show how the distribution of cropland among large world regions can be optimized to either increase expected global crop production or decrease its interannual variability. We also show that a preferential allocation of cropland in the most productive regions can increase global expected yield at the expense of yield stability. Theoretically, optimizing the distribution of a small fraction of total cultivated areas can help find a good compromise between low instability and high crop yields at the global scale.

Spatial clustering and meteorological drivers of summer ozone in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carro-Calvo, Leopoldo; Ordóñez, Carlos; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Schnell, Jordan L.

2017-10-01

We have applied the k-means clustering technique on a maximum daily 8-h running average near-surface ozone (MDA8 O3) gridded dataset over Europe at 1° × 1° resolution for summer 1998-2012. This has resulted in a spatial division of nine regions where ozone presents coherent spatiotemporal patterns. The role of meteorology in the variability of ozone at different time scales has been investigated by using daily meteorological fields from the NCEP-NCAR meteorological reanalysis. In the five regions of central-southern Europe ozone extremes (exceedances of the summer 95th percentile) occur mostly under anticyclonic circulation or weak sea level pressure gradients which trigger elevated temperatures and the recirculation of air masses. In the four northern regions extremes are associated with high-latitude anticyclones that divert the typical westerly flow at those latitudes and cause the advection of aged air masses from the south. The impact of meteorology on the day-to-day variability of ozone has been assessed by means of two different types of multiple linear models. These include as predictors meteorological fields averaged within the regions (;region-based; approach) or synoptic indices indicating the degree of resemblance between the daily meteorological fields over a large domain (25°-70° N, 35° W - 35° E) and their corresponding composites for extreme ozone days (;index-based; approach). With the first approach, a reduced set of variables, always including daily maximum temperature within the region, explains 47-66% of the variability (adjusted R2) in central-southern Europe, while more complex models are needed to explain 27-49% of the variability in the northern regions. The index-based approach yields better results for the regions of northern Europe, with adjusted R2 = 40-57%. Finally, both methodologies have also been applied to reproduce the interannual variability of ozone, with the best models explaining 66-88% of the variance in central-southern Europe and 45-66% in the north. Thus, the regionalisation carried out in this work has allowed establishing clear distinctions between the meteorological drivers of ozone in northern Europe and in the rest of the continent. These drivers are consistent across the different time scales examined (extremes, day-to-day and interannual), which gives confidence in the robustness of the results.

Effects of Uncertainty in TRMM Precipitation Radar Path Integrated Attenuation on Interannual Variations of Tropical Oceanic Rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan E.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30 deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Time series of rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) over the tropical oceans show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. We show that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series. Further analysis of the frequency distribution of PR (2A25 product) rain rates suggests that the algorithm incorporates the attenuation measurement in a very conservative fashion so as to optimize the instantaneous rain rates. Such an optimization appears to come at the expense of monitoring interannual climate variability.

Annually and monthly resolved solar irradiance and atmospheric temperature data across the Hawaiian archipelago from 1998 to 2015 with interannual summary statistics.

PubMed

Bryce, Richard; Losada Carreño, Ignacio; Kumler, Andrew; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Roberts, Billy; Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo

2018-08-01

This article contains data and summary statistics of solar irradiance and dry bulb temperature across the Hawaiian archipelago resolved on a monthly basis and spanning years 1998-2015. This data was derived in association with an article titled "Consequences of Neglecting the Interannual Variability of the Solar Resource: A Case Study of Photovoltaic Power Among the Hawaiian Islands" (Bryce et al., 2018 [7]). The solar irradiance data is presented in terms of Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI), Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI), and Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and was obtained from the satellite-derived data contained in the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). The temperature data is also obtained from this source. We have processed the NSRDB data and compiled these monthly resolved data sets, along with interannual summary statistics including the interannual coefficient of variability.

Investigating the biophysical controls on mass and energy cycling in Southwestern US ecosystems using the New Mexico Elevation Gradient of flux towers.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krofcheck, D. J.; Morillas, L.; Litvak, M. E.

2014-12-01

Drylands and semi-arid ecosystems cover over 45% of the global landmass. These biomes have been shown to be extremely sensitive to changes in climate, specifically decreases in precipitation and increases in air temperature. Therefore, inter-annual variability in climate has the potential to dramatically impact the carbon budget at regional and global scales. In the Southwestern US, we are in a unique position to investigate these relationships by leveraging eight years of data from the New Mexico Elevation Gradient (NMEG), eight flux towers that span six representative biomes across the semi-arid Southwest. From C4 desert grasslands to subalpine mixed conifer forests, the NMEG flux towers use identical instrumentsand processing, and afford a unique opportunity to explore patterns in biome-specific ecosystem processes and climate sensitivity. Over the last eight years the gradient has experienced climatic variability that span from wet years to an episodic megadrought. Here we report the effects of this extreme inter-annual variability in climate on the ability of semi-arid ecosystems to cycle and store energy and carbon. We also investigated biome-specific patterns of ecosystem light and water use efficiency during a series of wet and dry years, and how these vary in response to air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, evaporative fraction, and precipitation. Our initial results suggest that significant drought reduced the maximum ecosystem assimilation of carbon most at the C4 grasslands, creosote shrublands, juniper savannas, and ponderosa pine forests, with 60%, 50%, 35%, and 50% reduction respectively, relative to a wet year. Ecosystem light use efficiency tends to show the highest maximum values at the low elevation sites as a function of water availability, with the highest annual values consistently at the middle elevation and ponderosa pine sites. Water use efficiency was strongly biome dependent with the middle elevation sites showing the highest efficiencies, and the greatest within year variability at the lower elevation sites, with strong sensitivities to vapor pressure deficit. By quantifying the biome-specific ecosystem processes and functional responses, this network provides valuable insight about how vulnerable this range of semi-arid ecosystems is to future climate scenarios.

Alleviating tropical Atlantic sector biases in the Kiel climate model by enhancing horizontal and vertical atmosphere model resolution: climatology and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harlaß, Jan; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2018-04-01

We investigate the quality of simulating tropical Atlantic (TA) sector climatology and interannual variability in integrations of the Kiel climate model (KCM) with varying atmosphere model resolution. The ocean model resolution is kept fixed. A reasonable simulation of TA sector annual-mean climate, seasonal cycle and interannual variability can only be achieved at sufficiently high horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution. Two major reasons for the improvements are identified. First, the western equatorial Atlantic westerly surface wind bias in spring can be largely eliminated, which is explained by a better representation of meridional and especially vertical zonal momentum transport. The enhanced atmospheric circulation along the equator in turn greatly improves the thermal structure of the upper equatorial Atlantic with much reduced warm sea surface temperature (SST) biases. Second, the coastline in the southeastern TA and steep orography are better resolved at high resolution, which improves wind structure and in turn reduces warm SST biases in the Benguela upwelling region. The strongly diminished wind and SST biases at high atmosphere model resolution allow for a more realistic latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone. Resulting stronger cross-equatorial winds, in conjunction with a shallower thermocline, enable a rapid cold tongue development in the eastern TA in boreal spring. This enables simulation of realistic interannual SST variability and its seasonal phase locking in the KCM, which primarily is the result of a stronger thermocline feedback. Our findings suggest that enhanced atmospheric resolution, both vertical and horizontal, could be a key to achieving more realistic simulation of TA climatology and interannual variability in climate models.

Tropical Tropospheric Ozone: A Multi-Satellite View From TOMS and Other Instruments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Anne M.; Hudson, Robert D.; Guo, Hua; Witte, Jacquelyn C.; Kucsera, Tom L.; Seybold, Matthew G.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

New tropospheric ozone and aerosol products from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) satellite instrument can resolve episodic pollution events in the tropics and interannual and seasonal variability. Modified-residual (MR) Nimbus 7 tropical tropospheric ozone (TTO), two maps/month (1979-1992, 1-deg latitude by 2-deg longitude) within the region in which total ozone displays a tropical wave-one pattern (maximum 20S to 20N), are available in digital form at http://metosrv2.umd.edu/tropo. Also available are preliminary 1996-1999 MR-TTO maps based on real-time Earth-Probe (EP)/TOMS observations. Examples of applications are given.

What is the Effect of Interannual Hydroclimatic Variability on Water Supply Reservoir Operations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Turner, S. W. D.

2015-12-01

Rather than deriving from a single distribution and uniform persistence structure, hydroclimatic data exhibit significant trends and shifts in their mean, variance, and lagged correlation through time. Consequentially, observed and reconstructed streamflow records are often characterized by features of interannual variability, including long-term persistence and prolonged droughts. This study examines the effect of these features on the operating performance of water supply reservoirs. We develop a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model that can incorporate a regime-shifting climate variable. We then compare the performance of operating policies—designed with and without climate variable—to quantify the contribution of interannual variability to standard policy sub-optimality. The approach uses a discrete-time Markov chain to partition the reservoir inflow time series into small number of 'hidden' climate states. Each state defines a distinct set of inflow transition probability matrices, which are used by the SDP model to condition the release decisions on the reservoir storage, current-period inflow and hidden climate state. The experimental analysis is carried out on 99 hypothetical water supply reservoirs fed from pristine catchments in Australia—all impacted by the Millennium drought. Results show that interannual hydroclimatic variability is a major cause of sub-optimal hedging decisions. The practical import is that conventional optimization methods may misguide operators, particularly in regions susceptible to multi-year droughts.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 13; Interannual Variability and Potential Predictability in Reanalysis Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Min, Wei; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J. (Editor)

1997-01-01

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center and the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) have produced multi-year global assimilations of historical data employing fixed analysis systems. These "reanalysis" products are ideally suited for studying short-term climatic variations. The availability of multiple reanalysis products also provides the opportunity to examine the uncertainty in the reanalysis data. The purpose of this document is to provide an updated estimate of seasonal and interannual variability based on the DAO and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the 15-year period 1980-1995. Intercomparisons of the seasonal means and their interannual variations are presented for a variety of prognostic and diagnostic fields. In addition, atmospheric potential predictability is re-examined employing selected DAO reanalysis variables.

Using Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections to Analyze Interannual Precipitation Variability in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephan, C.; Klingaman, N. P.; Vidale, P. L.; Turner, A. G.; Demory, M. E.; Guo, L.

2017-12-01

Interannual rainfall variability in China affects agriculture, infrastructure and water resource management. A consistent and objective method, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis, is applied to precipitation observations over China in all seasons. Instead of maximizing the explained space-time variance, the method identifies regions in China that best explain the temporal variability in domain-averaged rainfall. It produces known teleconnections, that include high positive correlations with ENSO in eastern China in winter, along the Yangtze River in summer, and in southeast China during spring. New findings include that variability along the southeast coast in winter, in the Yangtze valley in spring, and in eastern China in autumn, are associated with extratropical Rossby wave trains. The same analysis is applied to six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model with and without air-sea coupling and at various horizontal resolutions of 40, 90 and 200 km. All simulations reproduce the observed patterns of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are all patterns associated with the observed physical mechanism. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. Finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. Evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient; attention must be paid to associated mechanisms.

Variability and prediction of freshwater and nitrate fluxes for the Louisiana-Texas shelf: Mississippi and Atchafalaya River source functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bratkovich, A.; Dinnel, S.P.; Goolsby, D.A.

1994-01-01

Time histories of riverine water discharge, nitrate concentration, and nitrate, flux have been analyzed for the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers. Results indicate that water discharge variability is dominated by the annual cycle and shorter-time-scale episodic events presumably associated with snowmelt runoff and spring or summer rains. Interannual variability in water discharge is relatively small compared to the above. In contrast, nitrate concentration exhibits strongest variability at decadal time scales. The interannual variability is not monotonic but more complicated in structure. Weak covariability between water discharge and nitrate concentration leads to a relatively “noisy” nitrate flux signal. Nitrate flux variations exhibit a low-amplitude, long-term modulation of a dominant annual cycle. Predictor-hindcastor analyses indicate that skilled forecasts of nitrate concentration and nitrate flux fields are feasible. Water discharge was the most reliably hindcast (on seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the fundamental strength of the annual hydrologic cycle. However, the forecasting effort for this variable was less successful than the hindcasting effort, mostly due to a phase shift in the annual cycle during our relatively short test period (18 mo). Nitrate concentration was more skillfully predicted (seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the relative dominance of the decadal-scale portion of the signal. Nitrate flux was also skillfully forecast even though historical analyses seemed to indicate that it should be more difficult to predict than either water discharge or nitrate concentration.

How potentially predictable are midlatitude ocean currents?

PubMed Central

Nonaka, Masami; Sasai, Yoshikazu; Sasaki, Hideharu; Taguchi, Bunmei; Nakamura, Hisashi

2016-01-01

Predictability of atmospheric variability is known to be limited owing to significant uncertainty that arises from intrinsic variability generated independently of external forcing and/or boundary conditions. Observed atmospheric variability is therefore regarded as just a single realization among different dynamical states that could occur. In contrast, subject to wind, thermal and fresh-water forcing at the surface, the ocean circulation has been considered to be rather deterministic under the prescribed atmospheric forcing, and it still remains unknown how uncertain the upper-ocean circulation variability is. This study evaluates how much uncertainty the oceanic interannual variability can potentially have, through multiple simulations with an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model driven by the observed interannually-varying atmospheric forcing under slightly different conditions. These ensemble “hindcast” experiments have revealed substantial uncertainty due to intrinsic variability in the extratropical ocean circulation that limits potential predictability of its interannual variability, especially along the strong western boundary currents (WBCs) in mid-latitudes, including the Kuroshio and its eastward extention. The intrinsic variability also greatly limits potential predictability of meso-scale oceanic eddy activity. These findings suggest that multi-member ensemble simulations are essential for understanding and predicting variability in the WBCs, which are important for weather and climate variability and marine ecosystems. PMID:26831954

Inter-annual variability and spatial coherence of net primary productivity across a western Oregon Cascades landscape

Treesearch

Travis J. Woolley; Mark E. Harmon; Kari B. O’Connell

2015-01-01

Inter-annual variability (IAV) of forest Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is a function of both extrinsic (e.g., climate) and intrinsic (e.g., stand dynamics) drivers. As estimates of NPP in forests are scaled from trees to stands to the landscape, an understanding of the relative effects of these factors on spatial and temporal behavior of NPP is important. Although a...

Wind-induced interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and surface salinity on the Northwest Atlantic shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yun; Ji, Rubao; Fratantoni, Paula S.; Chen, Changsheng; Hare, Jonathan A.; Davis, Cabell S.; Beardsley, Robert C.

2014-04-01

In this study, we examine the importance of regional wind forcing in modulating advective processes and hydrographic properties along the Northwest Atlantic shelf, with a focus on the Nova Scotian Shelf (NSS)-Gulf of Maine (GoM) region. Long-term observational data of alongshore wind stress, sea level slope, and along-shelf flow are analyzed to quantify the relationship between wind forcing and hydrodynamic responses on interannual time scales. Additionally, a simplified momentum balance model is used to examine the underlying mechanisms. Our results show significant correlation among the observed interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and alongshore wind stress in the NSS-GoM region. A mechanism is suggested to elucidate the role of wind in modulating the sea level slope and along-shelf flow: stronger southwesterly (northeastward) winds tend to weaken the prevailing southwestward flow over the shelf, building sea level in the upstream Newfoundland Shelf region, whereas weaker southwesterly winds allow stronger southwestward flow to develop, raising sea level in the GoM region. The wind-induced flow variability can influence the transport of low-salinity water from the Gulf of St. Lawrence to the GoM, explaining interannual variations in surface salinity distributions within the region. Hence, our results offer a viable mechanism, besides the freshening of remote upstream sources, to explain interannual patterns of freshening in the GoM.

Long-Term ENSO Variation Over the Last 20,000 Years From the Peru Continental Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skilbeck, G.; Fink, D.; Gagan, M.; Rein, B.

2006-12-01

Three ODP Leg 201 cores from the Peru continental margin comprise highly laminated diatomaceous ooze spanning Last Glacial Maximum to present. Geochemical proxy data, layer counting and spectral analysis of red color variation suggest the layers represent interannual accumulation under the influence tropical ENSO conditions, with darker layers representing El Niño events. AMS 14-C dating (Skilbeck &Fink, 2006) of bulk sediment from Sites 201-1228 and -1229 (~11°S) and comparison with Rein et al. (2005) Core SO147-106KL (~12°S) show that where the shelf is narrow south of ~10.5°S, regionally consistent rates of sediment accumulation have occurred over the late Deglaciation and Holocene, with high rates characterising the late (0-2.0 kyrBP, ~100 cm/ka) and the early (8.5-10 kyrBP, ~80 cm/ka) Holocene. Over these intervals laminae are of interannual resolution. Further north where the shelf is broader, Holocene-Late Deglaciation sediments are thin or absent, but the Early Deglaciation is well represented. In a core from ODP Site 201-1227 (~9°S, 427m water depth), the period 15.5-17.5 kyrBP is characterised by sediment accumulation rates in excess of 300 cm/ka, and interannual laminations are again present. Spectral analysis of the instrumental record of ENSO, the SOI, shows a relative stable mode of variation with an average frequency of about 5.5 yr for the past 130 years. Analysis of our ODP cores shows that the ENSO mode appears to be relatively stable for periods of 300-500 years throughout the Holocene with frequencies varying mostly between 5 and 8 years and relatively sudden mode switches, suggesting inter alia that the instrumental record is not long enough to test predictive models of ENSO variation. Throughout the Holocene, this pattern of variation transcends the sedimentation-rate zones identified above, with the inference that changes in the rate of sedimentation have not influenced the temporal pattern. The later part of the deglaciation period (10-14 kyrBP) appears to be a relatively long period of stable ENSO with a repeat frequency between 5 and 6 years. Layer variation over the interval between 14 to 15.5 yrBP loses interannual variability and is characterised by a dominant frequency of ~11-12 yr, but this may simply reflect the low sedimentation rate during this interval. During Early Deglaciation interannual- to decadal-scale layer variability is present, with over 600 discernable laminae recognisable across the ~1600 year interval represented in Core 210-1227B. ENSO during this time has multiple interannual frequency modes ranging between 4 and 10 yr, particularly over the interval 17.2- 16.2 kyrBP, with mode switches slightly more frequent than during the Holocene at between 200 and 300 years. In addition to the interannual laminations and the centennial-scale pattern of frequency mode variation described above, there is a regular oscillatory pattern in the contrast between dark and light laminations which can be traced to parasequence-like packets of laminations on a centimetre scale, and representing variability in the decadal to centennial range. References Rein, B., A. Luckge, et al. (2005). Paleoceanography 20(PA4003): 17p. Skilbeck, C.G. &D. Fink (2005). ODP Scientific Results 201.

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on African savannas changes with mean rainfall.

PubMed

Synodinos, Alexis D; Tietjen, Britta; Lohmann, Dirk; Jeltsch, Florian

2018-01-21

Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520-780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580-780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during 'dry' extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variability in rainfall over tropical Australia during summer and relationships with the Bilybara High

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reason, C. J. C.

2018-04-01

Variability in summer rainfall over tropical Australia, defined here as that part of the continent north of 25° S, and its linkages with regional circulation are examined. In particular, relationships with the mid-level anticyclone (termed the Bilybara High) that exists over the northwestern Australia/Timor Sea region between August and April are considered. This High forms to the southwest of the upper-level anticyclone via a balance between the upper-level divergence over the region of tropical precipitation maximum and planetary vorticity advection and moves south and strengthens during the spring and summer. It is shown that variations in the strength and position of the Bilybara High are related to anomalies in precipitation and temperature over large parts of tropical Australia as well as some areas in the south and southeast of the landmass. Some of the interannual variations in the High are related to ENSO, but there are also a number of neutral years with large anomalies in the High and hence in rainfall. On decadal time scales, a strong relationship exists between the leading mode of tropical Australian rainfall and the Bilybara High. On both interannual and decadal scales, the relationships between the High and the regional rainfall involve changes in the monsoonal northwesterlies blowing towards northern Australia, and further south, in the easterly trade winds over the region.

Southern Ocean Mixed-Layer Seasonal and Interannual Variations From Combined Satellite and In Situ Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buongiorno Nardelli, B.; Guinehut, S.; Verbrugge, N.; Cotroneo, Y.; Zambianchi, E.; Iudicone, D.

2017-12-01

The depth of the upper ocean mixed layer provides fundamental information on the amount of seawater that directly interacts with the atmosphere. Its space-time variability modulates water mass formation and carbon sequestration processes related to both the physical and biological pumps. These processes are particularly relevant in the Southern Ocean, where surface mixed-layer depth estimates are generally obtained either as climatological fields derived from in situ observations or through numerical simulations. Here we demonstrate that weekly observation-based reconstructions can be used to describe the variations of the mixed-layer depth in the upper ocean over a range of space and time scales. We compare and validate four different products obtained by combining satellite measurements of the sea surface temperature, salinity, and dynamic topography and in situ Argo profiles. We also compute an ensemble mean and use the corresponding spread to estimate mixed-layer depth uncertainties and to identify the more reliable products. The analysis points out the advantage of synergistic approaches that include in input the sea surface salinity observations obtained through a multivariate optimal interpolation. Corresponding data allow to assess mixed-layer depth seasonal and interannual variability. Specifically, the maximum correlations between mixed-layer anomalies and the Southern Annular Mode are found at different time lags, related to distinct summer/winter responses in the Antarctic Intermediate Water and Sub-Antarctic Mode Waters main formation areas.

Designing low-carbon power systems for Great Britain in 2050 that are robust to the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeyringer, Marianne; Price, James; Fais, Birgit; Li, Pei-Hao; Sharp, Ed

2018-05-01

The design of cost-effective power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies requires a modelling approach that simultaneously represents the whole energy system combined with the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of VRE. Here, we soft-link a long-term energy system model, which explores new energy system configurations from years to decades, with a high spatial and temporal resolution power system model that captures VRE variability from hours to years. Applying this methodology to Great Britain for 2050, we find that VRE-focused power system design is highly sensitive to the inter-annual variability of weather and that planning based on a single year can lead to operational inadequacy and failure to meet long-term decarbonization objectives. However, some insights do emerge that are relatively stable to weather-year. Reinforcement of the transmission system consistently leads to a decrease in system costs while electricity storage and flexible generation, needed to integrate VRE into the system, are generally deployed close to demand centres.

Tropical Warm Pool Surface Heat Budgets and Temperature: Contrasts Between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Chou, Ming-Dah; Chan, Pui-King; Lin, Po-Hsiung; Wang, Kung-Hwa

2003-01-01

Seasonal and interannual variations of the net surface heating F(sub NET) and sea surface temperature tendency (T(sub s)/dt) in the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans are studied. The surface heat fluxes are derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite radiance measurements for the period October 1997-September 2000. It is found that the magnitude of solar heating is lager than that of evaporative cooling, but the spatial variation of the latter is significantly large than the former. As a result, the spatial variations of seasonal and interannual variability of F(sub NET), follow closely that of evaporative cooling. Seasonal variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt are significantly correlated, except for the equatorial western Pacific. The high correlation is primarily attributable to high correlation between seasonal cycles of solar heating and T(sub s)/dt. The change of F(sub NET) between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina is significantly larger in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean than tropical western Pacific. For the former region, the reduced evaporative cooling arising from weakened winds during the El Nino is generally associated with enhanced solar heating due to decreased cloudiness, and thus increases the interannual variability of F(sub NET). For the latter region, the reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds is generally associated with but exceeds the reduced solar heating arising from increased cloudiness, and vise versa. Thus the interannual variability of F(sub NET) is reduced due to this offsetting effect. Interannual variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt have very low correlation. This is most likely related to interannual variability of ocean dynamics, which includes the variations of solar radiation penetrating through oceanic mixed layer, upwelling of cold thermocline water, Indonesian throughflow for transporting heat from the Pacific to Indian Ocean, and interhemispheric transport in the Indian Ocean.

Interannual Variability in Global Soil Respiration on a 0.5 Degree Grid Cell Basis (1980-1994)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raich, J.W.

2003-09-15

We used a climate-driven regression model to develop spatially resolved estimates of soil-CO{sub 2} emissions from the terrestrial land surface for each month from January 1980 to December 1994, to evaluate the effects of interannual variations in climate on global soil-to-atmosphere CO{sub 2} fluxes. The mean annual global soil-CO{sub 2} flux over this 15-y period was estimated to be 80.4 (range 79.3-81.8) Pg C. Monthly variations in global soil-CO{sub 2} emissions followed closely the mean temperature cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Globally, soil-CO{sub 2} emissions reached their minima in February and peaked in July and August. Tropical and subtropical evergreenmore » broad-leaved forests contributed more soil-derived CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere than did any other vegetation type ({approx}30% of the total) and exhibited a biannual cycle in their emissions. Soil-CO{sub 2} emissions in other biomes exhibited a single annual cycle that paralleled the seasonal temperature cycle. Interannual variability in estimated global soil-CO{sub 2} production is substantially less than is variability in net carbon uptake by plants (i.e., net primary productivity). Thus, soils appear to buffer atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations against far more dramatic seasonal and interannual differences in plant growth. Within seasonally dry biomes (savannas, bushlands, and deserts), interannual variability in soil-CO{sub 2} emissions correlated significantly with interannual differences in precipitation. At the global scale, however, annual soil-CO{sub 2} fluxes correlated with mean annual temperature, with a slope of 3.3 PgCY{sup -1} per degree Celsius. Although the distribution of precipitation influences seasonal and spatial patterns of soil-CO{sub 2} emissions, global warming is likely to stimulate CO{sub 2} emissions from soils.« less

Intensified Indian Ocean climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirumalai, K.; DiNezro, P.; Tierney, J. E.; Puy, M.; Mohtadi, M.

2017-12-01

Climate models project increased year-to-year climate variability in the equatorial Indian Ocean in response to greenhouse gas warming. This response has been attributed to changes in the mean climate of the Indian Ocean associated with the zonal sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient. According to these studies, air-sea coupling is enhanced due to a stronger SST gradient driving anomalous easterlies that shoal the thermocline in the eastern Indian Ocean. We propose that this relationship between the variability and the zonal SST gradient is consistent across different mean climate states. We test this hypothesis using simulations of past and future climate performed with the Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1). We constrain the realism of the model for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) where CESM1 simulates a mean climate consistent with a stronger SST gradient, agreeing with proxy reconstructions. CESM1 also simulates a pronounced increase in seasonal and interannual variability. We develop new estimates of climate variability on these timescales during the LGM using δ18O analysis of individual foraminifera (IFA). IFA data generated from four different cores located in the eastern Indian Ocean indicate a marked increase in δ18O-variance during the LGM as compared to the late Holocene. Such a significant increase in the IFA-δ18O variance strongly supports the modeling simulations. This agreement further supports the dynamics linking year-to-year variability and an altered SST gradient, increasing our confidence in model projections.

Inter-annual Variability in Global Suspended Particulate Inorganic Carbon Inventory Using Space-based Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, J.; Balch, W. M.; Henson, S.; Poulton, A. J.; Drapeau, D.; Bowler, B.; Lubelczyk, L.

2016-02-01

Coccolithophores, the single celled phytoplankton that produce an outer covering of calcium carbonate coccoliths, are considered to be the greatest contributors to the global oceanic particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) pool. The reflective coccoliths scatter light back out from the ocean surface, enabling PIC concentration to be quantitatively estimated from ocean color satellites. Here we use datasets of AQUA MODIS PIC concentration from 2003-2014 (using the recently-revised PIC algorithm), as well as statistics on coccolithophore vertical distribution derived from cruises throughout the world ocean, to estimate the average global (surface and integrated) PIC standing stock and its associated inter-annual variability. In addition, we divide the global ocean into Longhurst biogeochemical provinces, update the PIC biomass statistics and identify those regions that have the greatest inter-annual variability and thus may exert the greatest influence on global PIC standing stock and the alkalinity pump.

Variability of the Martian thermospheric temperatures during the last 7 Martian Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Galindo, Francisco; Lopez-Valverde, Miguel Angel; Millour, Ehouarn; Forget, François

2014-05-01

The temperatures and densities in the Martian upper atmosphere have a significant influence over the different processes producing atmospheric escape. A good knowledge of the thermosphere and its variability is thus necessary in order to better understand and quantify the atmospheric loss to space and the evolution of the planet. Different global models have been used to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the Martian thermosphere, usually considering three solar scenarios (solar minimum, solar medium and solar maximum conditions) to take into account the solar cycle variability. However, the variability of the solar activity within the simulated period of time is not usually considered in these models. We have improved the description of the UV solar flux included on the General Circulation Model for Mars developed at the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD-MGCM) in order to include its observed day-to-day variability. We have used the model to simulate the thermospheric variability during Martian Years 24 to 30, using realistic UV solar fluxes and dust opacities. The model predicts and interannual variability of the temperatures in the upper thermosphere that ranges from about 50 K during the aphelion to up to 150 K during perihelion. The seasonal variability of temperatures due to the eccentricity of the Martian orbit is modified by the variability of the solar flux within a given Martian year. The solar rotation cycle produces temperature oscillations of up to 30 K. We have also studied the response of the modeled thermosphere to the global dust storms in Martian Year 25 and Martian Year 28. The atmospheric dynamics are significantly modified by the global dust storms, which induces significant changes in the thermospheric temperatures. The response of the model to the presence of both global dust storms is in good agreement with previous modeling results (Medvedev et al., Journal of Geophysical Research, 2013). As expected, the simulated ionosphere is also sensitive to the variability of the solar activity. Acknowledgemnt: Francisco González-Galindo is funded by a CSIC JAE-Doc contract financed by the European Social Fund

Predicting critical thresholds in outlet glacier terminus behavior, Disko and Uummannaq Bays, West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

York, A.; Frey, K. E.; Das, S. B.

2017-12-01

The seasonal and interannual variability in outlet glacier terminus position is an important indicator of overall glacier health and the net effects of ice-ocean-atmosphere interactions. However, challenges arise in determining a primary driver of glacier change, as the magnitude of retreat observed at the terminus is controlled not only by atmospheric and oceanic temperatures, but also physical constraints unique to each glacier (e.g., ice mélange buttressing and underlying bedrock/bathymetry) which often lead to a non-linear response to climate. For example, previous studies have shown varying magnitudes of terminus retreat over the last 40 years at glaciers in West Greenland, despite exposure to similar atmospheric forcings. Satellite imagery can provide the necessary spatially- and temporally-extensive resource for monitoring glacier terminus behavior. Here, we constructed a time series of 18 glacier termini digitized from over 1200 all-season Landsat images between 1985 and 2015 within Disko and Uummannaq Bays, West Greenland. We calculated change points in the annual maximum terminus retreat of the glaciers using a bootstrapping algorithm within a change point detection software. We interpolated the average monthly retreat of each terminus in order to calculate the average seasonal amplitude of each year. We found the 11 glaciers in Uummannaq Bay retreated an average of -1.26 ± 1.36 km, while the seven glaciers in Disko Bay averaged -1.13 ± 0.82 km. The majority of glaciers retreated, yet we see no latitudinal trend in magnitude of retreat on either a seasonal or long-term scale. We observe change points in the annual maximum retreat of four glacier termini in Uummannaq Bay and one in Disko Bay which are generally coincident with increased summer sea surface temperatures. In some cases, we observed smaller interannual variability in the average seasonal amplitude of years leading up to a critical threshold, followed by an increase in seasonal variability in the year prior and throughout the regime shift, until returning to a similar range of variability observed prior to the shift. As such, our findings may provide a method to predict an approaching change point at glacier termini which have not yet crossed a critical threshold through observations of increases in seasonal amplitude variability.

Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan; Robertson, Franklin R.

2002-01-01

The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

Influence of climate variability, fire and phosphorus limitation on vegetation structure and dynamics of the Amazon-Cerrado border

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ane Dionizio, Emily; Heil Costa, Marcos; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Ferreira Pires, Gabrielle; Schwantes Marimon, Beatriz; Hur Marimon-Junior, Ben; Lenza, Eddie; Martins Pimenta, Fernando; Yang, Xiaojuan; Jain, Atul K.

2018-02-01

Climate, fire and soil nutrient limitation are important elements that affect vegetation dynamics in areas of the forest-savanna transition. In this paper, we use the dynamic vegetation model INLAND to evaluate the influence of interannual climate variability, fire and phosphorus (P) limitation on Amazon-Cerrado transitional vegetation structure and dynamics. We assess how each environmental factor affects net primary production, leaf area index and aboveground biomass (AGB), and compare the AGB simulations to an observed AGB map. We used two climate data sets (monthly average climate for 1961-1990 and interannual climate variability for 1948-2008), two data sets of total soil P content (one based on regional field measurements and one based on global data), and the INLAND fire module. Our results show that the inclusion of interannual climate variability, P limitation and fire occurrence each contribute to simulating vegetation types that more closely match observations. These effects are spatially heterogeneous and synergistic. In terms of magnitude, the effect of fire is strongest and is the main driver of vegetation changes along the transition. Phosphorus limitation, in turn, has a stronger effect on transitional ecosystem dynamics than interannual climate variability does. Overall, INLAND typically simulates more than 80 % of the AGB variability in the transition zone. However, the AGB in many places is clearly not well simulated, indicating that important soil and physiological factors in the Amazon-Cerrado border region, such as lithology, water table depth, carbon allocation strategies and mortality rates, still need to be included in the model.

Interannual Variability of Fisheries Economic Returns and Energy Ratios Is Mostly Explained by Gear Type

PubMed Central

Trenkel, Verena M.; Daurès, Fabienne; Rochet, Marie-Joëlle; Lorance, Pascal

2013-01-01

According to portfolio theory applied to fisheries management, economic returns are stabilised by harvesting in a portfolio stocks of species whose returns are negatively correlated and for which the portfolio economic return variance is smaller than the sum of stock specific return variances. Also, variability is expected to decrease with portfolio width. Using a range of indicators, these predictions were tested for the French fishing fleets in the Bay of Biscay (Northeast Atlantic) during the period 2001–2009. For this, vessels were grouped into eight fishing fleets based on the gears used and exploited species were grouped into five functional groups. The portfolio width of fleets ranged from 1–3 functional groups, or 4–19 species. Economic fleet returns (sale revenues minus fishing costs) varied strongly between years; the interannual variability was independent of portfolio width (species or functional groups). Energy ratio expressed by the ratio between fuel energy used for fishing and energy contained in landings varied from 0.3 for purse seines to 9.7 for trawlers using bottom trawls alone or in combination with pelagic trawls independent of portfolio width. Interannual variability in total sale revenues was larger than the sum of species specific sales revenue variability, except for fleets using hooks and pelagic trawlers; it increased with the number of species exploited. In conclusion, the interannual variability of economic returns or energy ratios of French fisheries in the Bay of Biscay did not decrease with the number of species or functional groups exploited, though it varied between fleets. PMID:23922951

Coherence among the Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere, and ocean responses to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing during the satellite era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M.; Shindell, Drew T.; Asner, Gregory P.

2016-08-01

A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, cryosphere and ocean responses to recent climate change using 3 decades (1980-2012) of observational satellite and field data throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our results show coherent interannual variability among snow cover, spring phenology, solar radiation, Scandinavian Pattern, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The interannual variability of the atmospheric peak-to-trough CO2 amplitude is mostly impacted by temperature-mediated effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), whereas CO2 concentration is affected by Polar Pattern control on sea ice extent dynamics. This is assuming the trend in anthropogenic CO2 emission remains constant, or the interannual changes in the trends are negligible. Our analysis suggests that sea ice decline-related CO2 release may outweigh increased CO2 uptake through longer growing seasons and higher temperatures. The direct effects of variation in solar radiation and leading teleconnections, at least in part via their impacts on temperature, dominate the interannual variability of land, cryosphere and ocean indicators. Our results reveal a coherent long-term changes in multiple physical and biological systems that are consistent with anthropogenic forcing of Earth's climate and inconsistent with natural drivers.

Forcing, variability, and pathway of a freshwater-driven current in the Eurasian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janout, Markus; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Hölemann, Jens; Rabe, Benjamin; Schauer, Ursula; Polyakov, Igor; Bacon, Sheldon; Coward, Andrew; Karcher, Michael; Lenn, Yueng-Djern; Kassens, Heidi; Timokhov, Leo

2015-04-01

Siberian river water is a first-order contribution to the Arctic freshwater budget, with the Ob, Yenisey, and Lena supplying nearly half of the total surface freshwater flux. However, few details are known regarding where, when and how the freshwater transverses the vast Siberian shelf seas. This paper investigates the mechanism, variability and pathways of the fresh Kara Sea outflow through Vilkitsky Strait towards the Laptev Sea. We utilize a high-resolution ocean model and recent shipboard observations to characterize the freshwater-laden Vilkitsky Strait Current (VSC), and shed new light on the little-studied region between the Kara and Laptev Seas, characterized by harsh ice conditions, contrasting water masses, straits and a large submarine canyon. The VSC is 10-20 km wide, surface-intensified, and varies seasonally (maximum from August-March) and interannually. Average freshwater (volume) transport is 500 ± 120 km3 a-1 (0.53 ± 0.08 Sv), with a baroclinic flow contribution of 50-90%. Interannual transport variability is explained by a storage-release mechanism, where blocking-favorable summer winds hamper the outflow and cause accumulation of freshwater in the Kara Sea. The year following a blocking event is characterized by enhanced transports driven by a baroclinic flow along the coast that is set up by increased freshwater volumes. Eventually, the VSC merges with a slope current and provides a major pathway for Eurasian river water towards the Western Arctic along the Eurasian continental slope. Kara (and Laptev) Sea freshwater transport is not correlated with the Arctic Oscillation, but rather driven by regional summer pressure patterns.

Stratospheric ozone variations in the equatorial region as seen in Stratiospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiotani, Masato; Hasebe, Fumio

1994-01-01

An analysis is made of equatorial ozone variations for 5 years, 1984-1989, using the ozone profile data derived from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) instrument. Attention is focused on the annual cycle and also on interannual variability, particularly the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations in the lower stratosphere, where the largest contribution to total column ozone takes place. The annual variation in zonal mean total ozone around the equator is composed of symmetric and asymmetric modes with respect to the equator, with maximum contributions being around 19 km for the symmetric mode and around 25 km for the asymmetric mode. The persistent zonal wavenumber 1 structure observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer over the equator is almost missing in the SAGE-derived column amounts integrated in the stratosphere, suggesting a significant contribution from tropospheric ozone. Interannual variations in the equatorial ozone are dominated by the QBO above 20 km and the ENSO-related variation below 20 km. The ozone QBO is characterized by zonally uniform phase changes in association with the zonal wind QBO in the equatorial lower stratosphere. The ENSO-related ozone variation consists of both the east-west vacillation and the zonally uniform phase variation. During the El Nino event, the east-west contrast with positive (negative) deviations in the eastern (western) hemisphere is conspicuous, while the decreasing tendency of the zonal mean values is maximum at the same time.

Inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes in temperate forest ecosystems: effects of biotic and abiotic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Hufkens, K.; Munger, J. W.; Bohrer, G.; Brzostek, E. R.; Richardson, A. D.

2014-12-01

Carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by both abiotic and biotic factors. Abiotic factors, such as variation in meteorological conditions, directly drive biophysical and biogeochemical processes; biotic factors, referring to the inherent properties of the ecosystem components, reflect the internal regulating effects including temporal dynamics and memory. The magnitude of the effect of abiotic and biotic factors on forest ecosystem carbon exchange has been suggested to vary at different time scales. In this study, we design and conduct a model-data fusion experiment to investigate the role and relative importance of the biotic and abiotic factors for inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of temperate deciduous forest ecosystems in the Northeastern US. A process-based model (FöBAAR) is parameterized at four eddy-covariance sites using all available flux and biometric measurements. We conducted a "transplant" modeling experiment, that is, cross- site and parameter simulations with different combinations of site meteorology and parameters. Using wavelet analysis and variance partitioning techniques, analysis of model predictions identifies both spatial variant and spatially invariant parameters. Variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP), with relative contributions varying from hourly to yearly time scales. The inter-annual variability of GPP and NEE is more regulated by meteorological forcing, but spatial variability in certain model parameters (biotic response) has more substantial effects on the inter-annual variability of ecosystem respiration (Reco) through the effects on carbon pools. Both the biotic and abiotic factors play significant roles in modulating the spatial and temporal variability in terrestrial carbon cycling in the region. Together, our study quantifies the relative importance of both, and calls for better understanding of them to better predict regional CO2 exchanges.

Seasonal and nonseasonal variability of satellite-derived chlorophyll and colored dissolved organic matter concentration in the California Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahru, Mati; Mitchell, B. Greg

2001-02-01

Time series of surface chlorophyll a concentration (Chl) and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) derived from the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor and Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor were evaluated for the California Current area using regional algorithms. Satellite data composited for 8-day periods provide the ability to describe large-scale changes in surface parameters. These changes are difficult to detect based on in situ observations alone that suffer from undersampling the large temporal and spatial variability, especially in Chl. We detected no significant bias in satellite Chl estimates compared with ship-based measurements. The variability in CDOM concentration was significantly smaller than that in Chl, both spatially and temporally. While being subject to large interannual and short-term variations, offshore waters (100-1000 km from the shore) have an annual cycle of Chl and CDOM with a maximum in winter-spring (December-March) and a minimum in late summer. For inshore waters the maximum is more likely in spring (April-May). We detect significant increase in both Chl and CDOM off central and southern California during the La Niña year of 1999. The trend of increasing Chl and CDOM from October 1996 to June 2000 is statistically significant in many areas.

Sensitivity of regional forest carbon budgets to continuous and stochastic climate change pressures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Scheller, R. M.

2010-12-01

Climate change is expected to impact forest-atmosphere carbon budgets through three processes: 1. Increased disturbance rates, including fires, mortality due to pest outbreaks, and severe storms 2. Changes in patterns of inter-annual variability, related to increased incidence of severe droughts and defoliating insect outbreaks 3. Continuous changes in forest productivity and respiration, related to increases in mean temperature, growing season length, and CO2 fertilization While the importance of these climate change effects in future regional carbon budgets has been established, quantitative characterization of the relative sensitivity of forested landscapes to these different types of pressures is needed. We present a model- and- data-based approach to understanding the sensitivity of forested landscapes to climate change pressures. Eddy-covariance and biometric measurements from forests in the northern United States were used to constrain two forest landscape models. The first, LandNEP, uses a prescribed functional form for the evolution of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) over the age of a forested grid cell, which is reset following a disturbance event. This model was used for investigating the basic statistical properties of a simple landscape’s responses to climate change pressures. The second model, LANDIS-II, includes different tree species and models forest biomass accumulation and succession, allowing us to investigate the effects of more complex forest processes such as species change and carbon pool accumulation on landscape responses to climate change effects. We tested the sensitivity of forested landscapes to these three types of climate change pressures by applying ensemble perturbations of random disturbance rates, distribution functions of inter-annual variability, and maximum potential carbon uptake rates, in the two models. We find that landscape-scale net carbon exchange responds linearly to continuous changes in potential carbon uptake and inter-annual variability, while responses to stochastic changes are non-linear and become more important at shorter mean disturbance intervals. These results provide insight on how to better parameterize coupled carbon-climate models to more realistically simulate feedbacks between forests and the atmosphere.

A coral-based reconstruction of Intertropical Convergence Zone variablity over Central America since 1707

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linsley, B.K.; Dunbar, R.B.; Mucciarone, D.A.

1994-05-15

Seasonal movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) control precipitation patterns and cloud cover throughout the tropics. In this study the authors have reconstructed seasonal and interannual variability of the eastern Pacific ITCZ from 1984 to 1707 using subseasonal {delta}{sup 18}O analyses on a massive coral from Secas Island (7{degrees}59{prime}N, 82{degrees}3{prime}W) in the Gulf of Chiriqui, Panama. The land area that drains into the Gulf of Chiriqui has served to amplify the rainfall effect on nearshore surface waters and coral {delta}{sup 18}O{sub ppt} composition. During the protracted wet season in Panama, the {delta}{sup 18}O of precipitation ({delta}{sup 18}O{sub ppt}) ismore » reduced on average by 10{per_thousand} and sea surface salinity (SSS) along the western coast is reduced up to 11{per_thousand}. Calibration of the coral {delta}{sup 18}O{sub ppt} from Secas Island against instrumental sea surface temperature (SST), SSS, precipitation and {delta}{sup 18}O{sub ppt} data indicate that seasonal rainfall induced variations in seawater {delta}{sup 18}O are responsible for {approximately}80% of the annual {delta}{sup 18}O variance. The regularity of the reconstructed seasonal ITCZ cycle indicates that over the length of the record the zone of maximum rainfall in the eastern Pacific has always expanded north to at least Panama in every northern hemisphere summer. Significant interannual and interdecadal {delta}{sup 18}O oscillations occur at average periods near 9, 3-7 (ENSO band), 17 and 33 years (listed in order of decreasing variance). As the Gulf of Chiriqui coral {delta}{sup 18}O time series is the first paleoclimatic record of past variations in the ITCZ, other seasonal-resolution reconstructions of the past behavior of the ITCZ are required to test whether the interannual and long-term variability observed in the eastern Pacific ITCZ is more than regional in scale. 79 refs., 13 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Sensitivity of Photosynthetic Gas Exchange and Growth of Lodgepole Pine to Climate Variability Depends on the Age of Pleistocene Glacial Surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osborn, B.; Chapple, W.; Ewers, B. E.; Williams, D. G.

2014-12-01

The interaction between soil conditions and climate variability plays a central role in the ecohydrological functions of montane conifer forests. Although soil moisture availability to trees is largely dependent on climate, the depth and texture of soil exerts a key secondary influence. Multiple Pleistocene glacial events have shaped the landscape of the central Rocky Mountains creating a patchwork of soils differing in age and textural classification. This mosaic of soil conditions impacts hydrological properties, and montane conifer forests potentially respond to climate variability quite differently depending on the age of glacial till and soil development. We hypothesized that the age of glacial till and associated soil textural changes exert strong control on growth and photosynthetic gas exchange of lodgepole pine. We examined physiological and growth responses of lodgepole pine to interannual variation in maximum annual snow water equivalence (SWEmax) of montane snowpack and growing season air temperature (Tair) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) across a chronosequence of Pleistocene glacial tills ranging in age from 700k to 12k years. Soil textural differences across the glacial tills illustrate the varying degrees of weathering with the most well developed soils with highest clay content on the oldest till surfaces. We show that sensitivity of growth and carbon isotope discrimination, an integrated measure of canopy gas exchange properties, to interannual variation SWEmax , Tair and VPD is greatest on young till surfaces, whereas trees on old glacial tills with well-developed soils are mostly insensitive to these interannual climate fluctuations. Tree-ring widths were most sensitive to changes in SWEmax on young glacial tills (p < 0.01), and less sensitive on the oldest till (p < 0.05). Tair correlates strongly with δ13C values on the oldest and youngest tills sites, but shows no significant relationship on the middle aged glacial till. It is clear that growth and photosynthetic gas exchange parameters are sensitive to glacial till surfaces, which is evident by the different responses to SWEmax and Tair across sites.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weinbeck, S.

Meteorological data collected at SRS since the mid-1960’s have been analyzed for trends in minimum and maximum temperature, heating and cooling degree days, precipitation and relative humidity. The trends in meteorological data collected have been relatively small compared to the interannual variability that is observed. The observed increases, while small, appear to be real (statistically significant). Overnight low temperatures (3.1°F) have increased over twice as fast as the increases in daytime highs (1.4°F). Similarly, there are statistically significant increases in the number of cooling degree days as well. There has been a similar decrease in the number of HDD andmore » freezing days, consistent with the overall increase in overnight low temperatures.« less

On the Interannual Variability and on Trends of the Temperature in the Middle Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Labitzke, K.; Naujokat, B.

1985-01-01

The new Reference Atmosphere presented here is based on global satellite data and forms a very useful basis for climatological studies. When using such climatologies it is important to be aware of the well known interannual variability which n themiddle atmosphere is particularly large during the northern winters and southern springs. Variability ofthe upper and lower stratospheres is discussed in detail. Areas covered included the polar region and the middile and lower latitudes. Temperature trends, notably the alteration of the global temperature structure by a number of anthropogenically influenced tract gases or the greenhouse effect is discussed.

Interannual SST Variability in the Japan/East Sea and Relationship with Environmental Variables

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

Soya Strait (SS), and Tartar Strait (TTS). (b) Regional geography. Interannual SST Variability in the Japan/East Sea 117 200 interruptions due to...caused by differential seasonal forcing. During the summer strong solar radiation penetrates into the entire Longitude(oE) La tit ud e( o N ) 50 50 100...1988.6 1988.8 1989 1989.2 1989.4 1989.6 1989.8 1990 1990.2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Time(year) Te m pe ra tu re (o C ) Longitude(oE) La tit ud e( o N ) (a) 5

Quantifying the Contribution of Wind-Driven Linear Response to the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Amoc Volume Transports Across 26.5ºN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, K.; von Storch, J. S.; Haak, H.; Nakayama, K.; Marotzke, J.

2014-12-01

Surface wind stress is considered to be an important forcing of the seasonal and interannual variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) volume transports. A recent study showed that even linear response to wind forcing captures observed features of the mean seasonal cycle. However, the study did not assess the contribution of wind-driven linear response in realistic conditions against the RAPID/MOCHA array observation or Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) simulations, because it applied a linear two-layer model to the Atlantic assuming constant upper layer thickness and density difference across the interface. Here, we quantify the contribution of wind-driven linear response to the seasonal and interannual variability of AMOC transports by comparing wind-driven linear simulations under realistic continuous stratification against the RAPID observation and OCGM (MPI-OM) simulations with 0.4º resolution (TP04) and 0.1º resolution (STORM). All the linear and MPI-OM simulations capture more than 60% of the variance in the observed mean seasonal cycle of the Upper Mid-Ocean (UMO) and Florida Strait (FS) transports, two components of the upper branch of the AMOC. The linear and TP04 simulations also capture 25-40% of the variance in the observed transport time series between Apr 2004 and Oct 2012; the STORM simulation does not capture the observed variance because of the stochastic signal in both datasets. Comparison of half-overlapping 12-month-long segments reveals some periods when the linear and TP04 simulations capture 40-60% of the observed variance, as well as other periods when the simulations capture only 0-20% of the variance. These results show that wind-driven linear response is a major contributor to the seasonal and interannual variability of the UMO and FS transports, and that its contribution varies in an interannual timescale, probably due to the variability of stochastic processes.

Inconsistencies of interannual variability and trends in long-term satellite leaf area index products.

PubMed

Jiang, Chongya; Ryu, Youngryel; Fang, Hongliang; Myneni, Ranga; Claverie, Martin; Zhu, Zaichun

2017-10-01

Understanding the long-term performance of global satellite leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global change research. However, few effort has been devoted to evaluating the long-term time-series consistencies of LAI products. This study compared four long-term LAI products (GLASS, GLOBMAP, LAI3g, and TCDR) in terms of trends, interannual variabilities, and uncertainty variations from 1982 through 2011. This study also used four ancillary LAI products (GEOV1, MERIS, MODIS C5, and MODIS C6) from 2003 through 2011 to help clarify the performances of the four long-term LAI products. In general, there were marked discrepancies between the four long-term LAI products. During the pre-MODIS period (1982-1999), both linear trends and interannual variabilities of global mean LAI followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. The GLASS linear trend and interannual variability were almost 4.5 times those of GLOBMAP. During the overlap period (2003-2011), GLASS and GLOBMAP exhibited a decreasing trend, TCDR no trend, and LAI3g an increasing trend. GEOV1, MERIS, and MODIS C6 also exhibited an increasing trend, but to a much smaller extent than that from LAI3g. During both periods, the R 2 of detrended anomalies between the four long-term LAI products was smaller than 0.4 for most regions. Interannual variabilities of the four long-term LAI products were considerably different over the two periods, and the differences followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. Uncertainty variations quantified by a collocation error model followed the same order. Our results indicate that the four long-term LAI products were neither intraconsistent over time nor interconsistent with each other. These inconsistencies may be due to NOAA satellite orbit changes and MODIS sensor degradation. Caution should be used in the interpretation of global changes derived from the four long-term LAI products. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Two-Dimensional Model Simulations of Interannual Variability in the Tropical Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleming, Eric L.; Jackman, Charles H.; Considine, David B.; Rosenfeld, Joan; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Meteorological data from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) and constituent data from the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) are used to construct yearly zonal mean dynamical fields for the 1990s for use in the GSFC 2-D chemistry and transport model. This allows for interannual dynamical variability to be included in the model constituent simulations. In this study, we focus on the tropical stratosphere. We find that the phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signals in equatorial CH4, and profile and total column 03 data is resolved quite well using this empirically- based 2-D model transport framework. However. the QBO amplitudes in the model constituents are systematically underestimated relative to the observations at most levels. This deficiency is probably due in part to the limited vertical resolutions of the 2-D model and the UKMO and UARS input data sets. We find that using different heating rate calculations in the model affects the interannual and QBO amplitudes in the constituent fields, but has little impact on the phase. Sensitivity tests reveal that the QBO in transport dominates the ozone interannual variability in the lower stratosphere. with the effect of the temperature QBO being dominant in the tipper stratosphere via the strong temperature dependence of the ozone loss reaction rates. We also find that the QBO in odd nitrogen radicals, which is caused by the QBO modulated transport of NOy, plays a significant but not dominant role in determining the ozone QBO variability in the middle stratosphere. The model mean age of air is in good overall agreement with that determined from tropical lower,middle stratospheric OMS balloon observations of SF6 and CO2. The interannual variability of tile equatorial mean age in the model increases with altitude and maximizes near 40 km, with a range, of 4-5 years over the 1993-2000 time period.

North-South precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Diaz, Henry F.; Meko, D.M.

1998-01-01

The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25??to 55??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both timescales, two leading EOFs describe 1) a north-south seesaw of precipitation pivoting near 40??N and 2) variations in precipitation near 40??N, respectively. The amount of overall precipitation variability is only about 10% of the mean and is largely determined by precipitation variations around 40??-45??N and most consistently influenced by nearby circulation patterns; in this sense, domain-average precipitation is closely related to the second EOF. The central latitude and latitudinal spread of precipitation distributions are strongly influenced by precipitation variations in the southern parts of western North America and are closely related to the first EOF. Central latitude of precipitation moves south (north) with tropical warming (cooling) in association with midlatitude western Pacific SLP variations, on both interannual and decadal timescales. Regional patterns and zonal averages of precipitation-sensitive tree-ring series are used to corroborate these patterns and to extend them into the past and appear to share much long- and short-term information with the instrumentally based zonal precipitation EOFs and moments.The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25?? to 55 ??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both tim

Application of Spaceborne Scatterometer for Mapping Freeze-Thaw State in Northern Landscapes as a Measure of Ecological and Hydrological Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDonald, Kyle; Kimball, John; Zimmermann, Reiner; Way, JoBea; Frolking, Steve; Running, Steve

1994-01-01

Landscape freeze/thaw transitions coincide with marked shifts in albedo, surface energy and mass exchange, and associated snow dynamics. monitoring landscape freeze/thaw dynamics would improve our ability to quantify the interannual variability of boreal hydrology and river runoff/flood dynamics, The annual duration of frost-free period also bounds the period of photosynthetic activity in borel and arctic regions thus affecting the carbon budget and the interannual variability fo regional carbon fluxes.

Long-term variability of supratidal coastal boulder activation in Brittany (France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Autret, Ronan; Dodet, Guillaume; Suanez, Serge; Roudaut, Gildas; Fichaut, Bernard

2018-03-01

High-energy supratidal coastal boulder deposit (SCBD) dynamics were investigated on Vierge Island and Pors Carn Point, north and south of western Brittany, France, respectively. Morphological changes induced by boulder transport and quarrying were quantified using high-resolution topographic survey data taken between 2012 and 2017. Additional in-situ wave parameters and water levels were also recorded over this period (2014-2017) in order to compute the maximum water levels and assess the relationship between SCBD morphological changes and specific hydrodynamic conditions. During extreme water levels (for maximum water levels exceeding a one in ten year event), SCBDs were broadly reworked (up to 40% of the total volume). During lower intensity events, for which maximum water levels were still very high, morphological changes represented 1% to 5% of the total volume. These morphological and hydrodynamic observations were then used to calibrate a chronology of SCBD activation events based on 70 years of hindcast winter maximum water levels. These long-term time-series showed great interannual variability in SCBD activation but no significant long-term trend. Winter-frequency SCBD activation was better correlated to the WEPA index (r = 0.46) than the NAO index (r = 0.1). Therefore, the WEPA index can be considered to be a more significant climate proxy for assessing storm-related geomorphic changes in the temperate latitudes of the N-E Atlantic basin (36°-52° N), including the Brittany coast. The potential of SCBDs as a morphological storm proxy for macrotidal high-energy rocky coasts is addressed.

Recent variability in the Atlantic water intrusion and water masses in Kongsfjorden, an Arctic fjord

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divya, David T.; Krishnan, K. P.

2017-03-01

The present study reports high inter-annual variability in the water masses and in the intrusion of Atlantic origin waters in Kongsfjorden from 2000 to 2013 using both the historical (2000-2010 summers) and recent CTD measurements (2011-2013 summer/fall). An earlier intrusion of Atlantic Water (AW) into Kongsfjorden was observed in the contemporary years. An overall summertime subsurface warming is evident from the maximum September AW temperature in 2011 (4.8 °C), 2012 (5.8 °C) and 2013 (7 °C). The combination of a compensating surface flow to the subsurface intrusion of AW and the strong southeasterly surface winds during the peak summer, resulted in a corresponding net outflow of the surface fresh water layer from Kongsfjorden. This led to the decreased freshwater volume inside the fjord during 2013 (1 km3) compared to 2011 (3.1 km3) and 2012 (2.3 km3).

Interannual variation in land-use intensity enhances grassland multidiversity

PubMed Central

Allan, Eric; Bossdorf, Oliver; Dormann, Carsten F.; Prati, Daniel; Gossner, Martin M.; Tscharntke, Teja; Blüthgen, Nico; Bellach, Michaela; Birkhofer, Klaus; Boch, Steffen; Böhm, Stefan; Börschig, Carmen; Chatzinotas, Antonis; Christ, Sabina; Daniel, Rolf; Diekötter, Tim; Fischer, Christiane; Friedl, Thomas; Glaser, Karin; Hallmann, Christine; Hodac, Ladislav; Hölzel, Norbert; Jung, Kirsten; Klein, Alexandra Maria; Klaus, Valentin H.; Kleinebecker, Till; Krauss, Jochen; Lange, Markus; Morris, E. Kathryn; Müller, Jörg; Nacke, Heiko; Pašalić, Esther; Rillig, Matthias C.; Rothenwöhrer, Christoph; Schall, Peter; Scherber, Christoph; Schulze, Waltraud; Socher, Stephanie A.; Steckel, Juliane; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Türke, Manfred; Weiner, Christiane N.; Werner, Michael; Westphal, Catrin; Wolters, Volkmar; Wubet, Tesfaye; Gockel, Sonja; Gorke, Martin; Hemp, Andreas; Renner, Swen C.; Schöning, Ingo; Pfeiffer, Simone; König-Ries, Birgitta; Buscot, François; Linsenmair, Karl Eduard; Schulze, Ernst-Detlef; Weisser, Wolfgang W.; Fischer, Markus

2014-01-01

Although temporal heterogeneity is a well-accepted driver of biodiversity, effects of interannual variation in land-use intensity (LUI) have not been addressed yet. Additionally, responses to land use can differ greatly among different organisms; therefore, overall effects of land-use on total local biodiversity are hardly known. To test for effects of LUI (quantified as the combined intensity of fertilization, grazing, and mowing) and interannual variation in LUI (SD in LUI across time), we introduce a unique measure of whole-ecosystem biodiversity, multidiversity. This synthesizes individual diversity measures across up to 49 taxonomic groups of plants, animals, fungi, and bacteria from 150 grasslands. Multidiversity declined with increasing LUI among grasslands, particularly for rarer species and aboveground organisms, whereas common species and belowground groups were less sensitive. However, a high level of interannual variation in LUI increased overall multidiversity at low LUI and was even more beneficial for rarer species because it slowed the rate at which the multidiversity of rare species declined with increasing LUI. In more intensively managed grasslands, the diversity of rarer species was, on average, 18% of the maximum diversity across all grasslands when LUI was static over time but increased to 31% of the maximum when LUI changed maximally over time. In addition to decreasing overall LUI, we suggest varying LUI across years as a complementary strategy to promote biodiversity conservation. PMID:24368852

Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

2016-12-01

Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

Phytoplankton dynamics in relation to seasonal variability and upwelling and relaxation patterns at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin) over a four-year period

PubMed Central

Calado, António José; Moita, Maria Teresa; Cunha, Marina R.

2017-01-01

From June 2004 to December 2007, samples were weekly collected at a fixed station located at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin). We examined the seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in composition and community structure of the phytoplankton in relation to the main environmental drivers and assessed the influence of the oceanographic regime, namely changes in frequency and intensity of upwelling events, over the dynamics of the phytoplankton assemblage. The samples were consistently handled and a final subset of 136 OTUs (taxa with relative abundance > 0.01%) was subsequently submitted to various multivariate analyses. The phytoplankton assemblage showed significant changes at all temporal scales but with an overriding importance of seasonality over longer- (inter-annual) or shorter-term fluctuations (upwelling-related). Sea-surface temperature, salinity and maximum upwelling index were retrieved as the main driver of seasonal change. Seasonal signal was most evident in the fluctuations of chlorophyll a concentration and in the high turnover from the winter to spring phytoplankton assemblage. The seasonal cycle of production and succession was disturbed by upwelling events known to disrupt thermal stratification and induce changes in the phytoplankton assemblage. Our results indicate that both the frequency and intensity of physical forcing were important drivers of such variability, but the outcome in terms of species composition was highly dependent on the available local pool of species and the timing of those events in relation to the seasonal cycle. We conclude that duration, frequency and intensity of upwelling events, which vary seasonally and inter-annually, are paramount for maintaining long-term phytoplankton diversity likely by allowing unstable coexistence and incorporating species turnover at different scales. Our results contribute to the understanding of the complex mechanisms of coastal phytoplankton dynamics in relation to changing physical forcing which is fundamental to improve predictability of future prospects under climate change. PMID:28472179

Phytoplankton dynamics in relation to seasonal variability and upwelling and relaxation patterns at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin) over a four-year period.

PubMed

Vidal, Tânia; Calado, António José; Moita, Maria Teresa; Cunha, Marina R

2017-01-01

From June 2004 to December 2007, samples were weekly collected at a fixed station located at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin). We examined the seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in composition and community structure of the phytoplankton in relation to the main environmental drivers and assessed the influence of the oceanographic regime, namely changes in frequency and intensity of upwelling events, over the dynamics of the phytoplankton assemblage. The samples were consistently handled and a final subset of 136 OTUs (taxa with relative abundance > 0.01%) was subsequently submitted to various multivariate analyses. The phytoplankton assemblage showed significant changes at all temporal scales but with an overriding importance of seasonality over longer- (inter-annual) or shorter-term fluctuations (upwelling-related). Sea-surface temperature, salinity and maximum upwelling index were retrieved as the main driver of seasonal change. Seasonal signal was most evident in the fluctuations of chlorophyll a concentration and in the high turnover from the winter to spring phytoplankton assemblage. The seasonal cycle of production and succession was disturbed by upwelling events known to disrupt thermal stratification and induce changes in the phytoplankton assemblage. Our results indicate that both the frequency and intensity of physical forcing were important drivers of such variability, but the outcome in terms of species composition was highly dependent on the available local pool of species and the timing of those events in relation to the seasonal cycle. We conclude that duration, frequency and intensity of upwelling events, which vary seasonally and inter-annually, are paramount for maintaining long-term phytoplankton diversity likely by allowing unstable coexistence and incorporating species turnover at different scales. Our results contribute to the understanding of the complex mechanisms of coastal phytoplankton dynamics in relation to changing physical forcing which is fundamental to improve predictability of future prospects under climate change.

A decade of boreal rich fen greenhouse gas fluxes in response to natural and experimental water table variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olefeldt, David; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Kane, Evan S.; McGuire, A. David; Waldrop, Mark P.; Turetsky, Merritt R.

2017-01-01

Rich fens are common boreal ecosystems with distinct hydrology, biogeochemistry and ecology that influence their carbon (C) balance. We present growing season soil chamber methane emission (FCH4), ecosystem respiration (ER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) fluxes from a 9-years water table manipulation experiment in an Alaskan rich fen. The study included major flood and drought years, where wetting and drying treatments further modified the severity of droughts. Results support previous findings from peatlands that drought causes reduced magnitude of growing season FCH4, GPP and NEE, thus reducing or reversing their C sink function. Experimentally exacerbated droughts further reduced the capacity for the fen to act as a C sink by causing shifts in vegetation and thus reducing magnitude of maximum growing season GPP in subsequent flood years by ~15% compared to control plots. Conversely, water table position had only a weak influence on ER, but dominant contribution to ER switched from autotrophic respiration in wet years to heterotrophic in dry years. Droughts did not cause inter-annual lag effects on ER in this rich fen, as has been observed in several nutrient-poor peatlands. While ER was dependent on soil temperatures at 2 cm depth, FCH4 was linked to soil temperatures at 25 cm. Inter-annual variability of deep soil temperatures was in turn dependent on wetness rather than air temperature, and higher FCH4 in flooded years was thus equally due to increased methane production at depth and decreased methane oxidation near the surface. Short-term fluctuations in wetness caused significant lag effects on FCH4, but droughts caused no inter-annual lag effects on FCH4. Our results show that frequency and severity of droughts and floods can have characteristic effects on the exchange of greenhouse gases, and emphasize the need to project future hydrological regimes in rich fens.

Seasonal and interannual variations in coccolithophore abundance off Terceira Island, Azores (Central North Atlantic)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narciso, Áurea; Gallo, Francesca; Valente, André; Cachão, Mário; Cros, Lluïsa; Azevedo, Eduardo B.; e Ramos, Joana Barcelos

2016-04-01

In order to characterize the natural coccolithophore community occurring offshore Azores and to determine their annual and interannual patterns, monthly samples were collected, from September 2010 to December 2014, in the photic zone off Terceira Island. The present study revealed a clear seasonal distribution and a considerable interannual variability of the living coccolithophore community. The highest coccolithophore abundances were observed during spring and winter months, especially due to the smaller species Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa ericsonii. In fact, the highest biomass period was registered during April 2011, associated with enhanced abundance of the overcalcified morphotype of E. huxleyi, which was possibly influenced by subpolar waters and subsequent upwelling conditions. The highest abundances of Gephyrocapsa muellerae were recorded during June 2011 and 2014, indicating that this species characterizes the transition between the period of maximum productivity and the subsequent smoother environmental conditions, the first and the later stages of the phytoplankton succession described by Margalef, respectively. During summer to early fall, a gradual decrease of the overall coccolithophore abundance was observed, while the species richness (Margalef diversity index) increased. A subtropical coccolithophore assemblage mainly composed by Umbellosphaera tenuis, Syracosphaera spp., Discosphaera tubifera, Rhabdosphaera clavigera and Coronosphaera mediterranea indicated the presence of surface warmer waters accompanied by reduced mixing and low nutrients concentration. During late fall to winter, the coccolithophore abundance increased again with a concomitant reduction in species diversity. This is potentially linked to low sea surface temperatures, moderate nutrients concentration and surface mixed layer deepening. During 2011, colder and productive waters led to an increase in the total coccolithophore abundances. On contrary, during 2012, characterized by milder environmental conditions, an increase in the diversity of the community was prevalent. The noticeably coccolithophore response to variations in the main physical variables and on main traditional nutrients corroborates the importance of this group as proxy of marine environmental conditions in the past.

Seasonal and Inter-annual Variation in Wood Production in Tropical Trees on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, is Related to Local Climate and Species Functional Traits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cushman, K.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Kellner, J. R.; Wright, S. J.; Condit, R.; Detto, M.; Tribble, C. M.

2015-12-01

Tropical forest carbon budgets play a major role in global carbon dynamics, but the responses of tropical forests to current and future inter-annual climatic variation remains highly uncertain. Better predictions of future tropical forest carbon fluxes require an improved understanding of how different species of tropical trees respond to changes in climate at seasonal and inter-annual temporal scales. We installed dendrometer bands on a size-stratified sample of 2000 trees in old growth forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, a moist lowland forest that experiences an annual dry season of approximately four months. Tree diameters were measured at the beginning and end of the rainy season since 2008. Additionally, we recorded the canopy illumination level, canopy intactness, and liana coverage of all trees during each census. We used linear mixed-effects models to evaluate how tree growth was related to seasonal and interannual variation in local climate, tree condition, and species identity, and how species identity effects related to tree functional traits. Climatic variables considered included precipitation, solar radiation, soil moisture, and climatological water deficit, and were all calculated from high-quality on-site measurements. Functional traits considered included wood density, maximum adult stature, deciduousness, and drought tolerance. We found that annual wood production was positively related to water availability, with higher growth in wetter years. Species varied in their response to seasonal water availability, with some species showing more pronounced reduction of growth during the dry season when water availability is limited. Interspecific variation in seasonal and interannual growth patterns was related to life-history strategies and species functional traits. The finding of higher growth in wetter years is consistent with previous tree ring studies conducted on a small subset of species with reliable annual rings. Together with previous findings that seed production at this site is higher in sunnier (and drier) years, this suggests strong climate-related shifts in allocation. This study highlights the importance of considering forest species composition and potential allocational shifts when predicting carbon fluxes in response to local climate variation.

[Application of regression tree in analyzing the effects of climate factors on NDVI in loess hilly area of Shaanxi Province].

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Lü, Yi-he; Zheng, Hai-feng; Chen, Li-ding

2010-05-01

Based on the 10-day SPOT VEGETATION NDVI data and the daily meteorological data from 1998 to 2007 in Yan' an City, the main meteorological variables affecting the annual and interannual variations of NDVI were determined by using regression tree. It was found that the effects of test meteorological variables on the variability of NDVI differed with seasons and time lags. Temperature and precipitation were the most important meteorological variables affecting the annual variation of NDVI, and the average highest temperature was the most important meteorological variable affecting the inter-annual variation of NDVI. Regression tree was very powerful in determining the key meteorological variables affecting NDVI variation, but could not build quantitative relations between NDVI and meteorological variables, which limited its further and wider application.

Interannual variability of snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains, United States: Examples from two alpine watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepsen, Steven M.; Molotch, Noah P.; Williams, Mark W.; Rittger, Karl E.; Sickman, James O.

2012-02-01

The distribution of snow and the energy flux components of snowmelt are intrinsic characteristics of the alpine water cycle controlling the location of source waters and the effect of climate on streamflow. Interannual variability of these characteristics is relevant to the effect of climate change on alpine hydrology. Our objective is to characterize the interannual variability in the spatial distribution of snow and energy fluxes of snowmelt in watersheds of a maritime setting, Tokopah Basin (TOK) in California's southern Sierra Nevada, and a continental setting, Green Lake 4 Valley (GLV4) in Colorado's Front Range, using a 12 year database (1996-2007) of hydrometeorological observations and satellite-derived snow cover. Snowpacks observed in GLV4 exhibit substantially greater spatial variability than in TOK (0.75 versus 0.28 spatial coefficient of variation). In addition, modeling results indicate that the net turbulent energy flux contribution to snowmelt in GLV4 is, on average, 3 times greater in magnitude (mean 29% versus 10%) and interannual variability (standard deviation 17% versus 6%) than in TOK. These energy flux values exhibit strong seasonality, increasing as the melt season progresses to times later in the year (R2 = 0.54-0.77). This seasonality of energy flux appears to be associated with snowmelt rates that generally increase with onset date of melt (0.02 cm d-2). This seasonality in snowmelt rate, coupled to differences in hydrogeology, may account for the observed differences in correspondence between the timing of snowmelt and timing of streamflow in these watersheds.

Yearly fluctuations of flower landscape in a Mediterranean scrubland: Consequences for floral resource availability.

PubMed

Flo, Víctor; Bosch, Jordi; Arnan, Xavier; Primante, Clara; Martín González, Ana M; Barril-Graells, Helena; Rodrigo, Anselm

2018-01-01

Species flower production and flowering phenology vary from year to year due to extrinsic factors. Inter-annual variability in flowering patterns may have important consequences for attractiveness to pollinators, and ultimately, plant reproductive output. To understand the consequences of flowering pattern variability, a community approach is necessary because pollinator flower choice is highly dependent on flower context. Our objectives were: 1) To quantify yearly variability in flower density and phenology; 2) To evaluate whether changes in flowering patterns result in significant changes in pollen/nectar composition. We monitored weekly flowering patterns in a Mediterranean scrubland community (23 species) over 8 years. Floral resource availability was estimated based on field measures of pollen and nectar production per flower. We analysed inter-annual variation in flowering phenology (duration and date of peak bloom) and flower production, and inter-annual and monthly variability in flower, pollen and nectar species composition. We also investigated potential phylogenetic effects on inter-annual variability of flowering patterns. We found dramatic variation in yearly flower production both at the species and community levels. There was also substantial variation in flowering phenology. Importantly, yearly fluctuations were far from synchronous across species, and resulted in significant changes in floral resources availability and composition at the community level. Changes were especially pronounced late in the season, at a time when flowers are scarce and pollinator visitation rates are particularly high. We discuss the consequences of our findings for pollinator visitation and plant reproductive success in the current scenario of climate change.

Interannual variability of snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains, United States: examples from two alpine watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jepsen, Steven M.; Molotch, Noah P.; Williams, Mark W.; Rittger, Karl E.; Sickman, James O.

2012-01-01

The distribution of snow and the energy flux components of snowmelt are intrinsic characteristics of the alpine water cycle controlling the location of source waters and the effect of climate on streamflow. Interannual variability of these characteristics is relevant to the effect of climate change on alpine hydrology. Our objective is to characterize the interannual variability in the spatial distribution of snow and energy fluxes of snowmelt in watersheds of a maritime setting, Tokopah Basin (TOK) in California's southern Sierra Nevada, and a continental setting, Green Lake 4 Valley (GLV4) in Colorado's Front Range, using a 12 year database (1996–2007) of hydrometeorological observations and satellite-derived snow cover. Snowpacks observed in GLV4 exhibit substantially greater spatial variability than in TOK (0.75 versus 0.28 spatial coefficient of variation). In addition, modeling results indicate that the net turbulent energy flux contribution to snowmelt in GLV4 is, on average, 3 times greater in magnitude (mean 29% versus 10%) and interannual variability (standard deviation 17% versus 6%) than in TOK. These energy flux values exhibit strong seasonality, increasing as the melt season progresses to times later in the year (R2 = 0.54–0.77). This seasonality of energy flux appears to be associated with snowmelt rates that generally increase with onset date of melt (0.02 cm d-2). This seasonality in snowmelt rate, coupled to differences in hydrogeology, may account for the observed differences in correspondence between the timing of snowmelt and timing of streamflow in these watersheds.

Yearly fluctuations of flower landscape in a Mediterranean scrubland: Consequences for floral resource availability

PubMed Central

Primante, Clara; Martín González, Ana M.; Barril-Graells, Helena

2018-01-01

Species flower production and flowering phenology vary from year to year due to extrinsic factors. Inter-annual variability in flowering patterns may have important consequences for attractiveness to pollinators, and ultimately, plant reproductive output. To understand the consequences of flowering pattern variability, a community approach is necessary because pollinator flower choice is highly dependent on flower context. Our objectives were: 1) To quantify yearly variability in flower density and phenology; 2) To evaluate whether changes in flowering patterns result in significant changes in pollen/nectar composition. We monitored weekly flowering patterns in a Mediterranean scrubland community (23 species) over 8 years. Floral resource availability was estimated based on field measures of pollen and nectar production per flower. We analysed inter-annual variation in flowering phenology (duration and date of peak bloom) and flower production, and inter-annual and monthly variability in flower, pollen and nectar species composition. We also investigated potential phylogenetic effects on inter-annual variability of flowering patterns. We found dramatic variation in yearly flower production both at the species and community levels. There was also substantial variation in flowering phenology. Importantly, yearly fluctuations were far from synchronous across species, and resulted in significant changes in floral resources availability and composition at the community level. Changes were especially pronounced late in the season, at a time when flowers are scarce and pollinator visitation rates are particularly high. We discuss the consequences of our findings for pollinator visitation and plant reproductive success in the current scenario of climate change. PMID:29346453

Inter-annual and spatial variability in hillslope runoff and mercury flux during spring snowmelt.

PubMed

Haynes, Kristine M; Mitchell, Carl P J

2012-08-01

Spring snowmelt is an important period of mercury (Hg) export from watersheds. Limited research has investigated the potential effects of climate variability on hydrologic and Hg fluxes during spring snowmelt. The purpose of this research was to assess the potential impacts of inter-annual climate variability on Hg mobility in forested uplands, as well as spatial variability in hillslope hydrology and Hg fluxes. We compared hydrological flows, Hg and solute mobility from three adjacent hillslopes in the S7 watershed of the Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota during two very different spring snowmelt periods: one following a winter (2009-2010) with severely diminished snow accumulation (snow water equivalent (SWE) = 48 mm) with an early melt, and a second (2010-2011) with significantly greater winter snow accumulation (SWE = 98 mm) with average to late melt timing. Observed inter-annual differences in total Hg (THg) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) yields were predominantly flow-driven, as the proportion by which solute yields increased was the same as the increase in runoff. Accounting for inter-annual differences in flow, there was no significant difference in THg and DOC export between the two snowmelt periods. The spring 2010 snowmelt highlighted the important contribution of melting soil frost in the timing of a considerable portion of THg exported from the hillslope, accounting for nearly 30% of the THg mobilized. Differences in slope morphology and soil depths to the confining till layer were important in controlling the large observed spatial variability in hydrological flowpaths, transmissivity feedback responses, and Hg flux trends across the adjacent hillslopes.

The predicted CLARREO sampling error of the inter-annual SW variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doelling, D. R.; Keyes, D. F.; Nguyen, C.; Macdonnell, D.; Young, D. F.

2009-12-01

The NRC Decadal Survey has called for SI traceability of long-term hyper-spectral flux measurements in order to monitor climate variability. This mission is called the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) and is currently defining its mission requirements. The requirements are focused on the ability to measure decadal change of key climate variables at very high accuracy. The accuracy goals are set using anticipated climate change magnitudes, but the accuracy achieved for any given climate variable must take into account the temporal and spatial sampling errors based on satellite orbits and calibration accuracy. The time period to detect a significant trend in the CLARREO record depends on the magnitude of the sampling calibration errors relative to the current inter-annual variability. The largest uncertainty in climate feedbacks remains the effect of changing clouds on planetary energy balance. Some regions on earth have strong diurnal cycles, such as maritime stratus and afternoon land convection; other regions have strong seasonal cycles, such as the monsoon. However, when monitoring inter-annual variability these cycles are only important if the strength of these cycles vary on decadal time scales. This study will attempt to determine the best satellite constellations to reduce sampling error and to compare the error with the current inter-annual variability signal to ensure the viability of the mission. The study will incorporate Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) (Monthly TOA/Surface Averages) SRBAVG product TOA LW and SW climate quality fluxes. The fluxes are derived by combining Terra (10:30 local equator crossing time) CERES fluxes with 3-hourly 5-geostationary satellite estimated broadband fluxes, which are normalized using the CERES fluxes, to complete the diurnal cycle. These fluxes were saved hourly during processing and considered the truth dataset. 90°, 83° and 74° inclination precessionary orbits as well as sun-synchronous orbits will be evaluated. This study will focus on the SW radiance, since these low earth orbits are only in daylight for half the orbit. The precessionary orbits were designed to cycle through all solar zenith angles over the course of a year. The inter-annual variability sampling error will be stratified globally/zonally and annually/seasonally and compared with the corresponding truth anomalies.

Long-term climate patterns in Alaskan surface temperature and precipitation and their biological consequences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, James J.; Hufford, Gary L.; Fleming, Michael D.; Berg, Jared S.; Ashton, J.B.

2002-01-01

Mean monthly climate maps of Alaskan surface temperature and precipitation produced by the parameter-elevation regression on independent slopes model (PRISM) were analyzed. Alaska is divided into interior and coastal zones with consistent but different climatic variability separated by a transition region; it has maximum interannual variability but low long-term mean variability. Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)- and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type events influence Alaska surface temperatures weakly (1-2/spl deg/C) statewide. PDO has a stronger influence than ENSO on precipitation but its influence is largely localized to coastal central Alaska. The strongest influence of Arctic oscillation (AO) occurs in northern and interior Alaskan precipitation. Four major ecosystems are defined. A major eco-transition zone occurs between the interior boreal forest and the coastal rainforest. Variability in insolation, surface temperature, precipitation, continentality, and seasonal changes in storm track direction explain the mapped ecosystems. Lack of westward expansion of the interior boreal forest into the western shrub tundra is influenced by the coastal marine boundary layer (enhanced cloud cover, reduced insolation, cooler surface and soil temperatures).

Freshwater exchanges and surface salinity in the Colombian basin, Caribbean Sea.

PubMed

Beier, Emilio; Bernal, Gladys; Ruiz-Ochoa, Mauricio; Barton, Eric Desmond

2017-01-01

Despite the heavy regional rainfall and considerable discharge of many rivers into the Colombian Basin, there have been few detailed studies about the dilution of Caribbean Surface Water and the variability of salinity in the southwestern Caribbean. An analysis of the precipitation, evaporation and runoff in relation to the climate variability demonstrates that although the salt balance in the Colombian Basin overall is in equilibrium, the area south of 12°N is an important dilution sub-basin. In the southwest of the basin, in the region of the Panama-Colombia Gyre, Caribbean Sea Water is diluted by precipitation and runoff year round, while in the northeast, off La Guajira, its salinity increases from December to May by upwelling. At the interannual scale, continental runoff is related to El Niño Southern Oscillation, and precipitation and evaporation south of 12°N are related to the Caribbean Low Level Jet. During El Niño years the maximum salinification occurs in the dry season (December-February) while in La Niña years the maximum dilution (or freshening), reaching La Guajira Coastal Zone, occurs in the wet season (September-November).

Freshwater exchanges and surface salinity in the Colombian basin, Caribbean Sea

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Despite the heavy regional rainfall and considerable discharge of many rivers into the Colombian Basin, there have been few detailed studies about the dilution of Caribbean Surface Water and the variability of salinity in the southwestern Caribbean. An analysis of the precipitation, evaporation and runoff in relation to the climate variability demonstrates that although the salt balance in the Colombian Basin overall is in equilibrium, the area south of 12°N is an important dilution sub-basin. In the southwest of the basin, in the region of the Panama-Colombia Gyre, Caribbean Sea Water is diluted by precipitation and runoff year round, while in the northeast, off La Guajira, its salinity increases from December to May by upwelling. At the interannual scale, continental runoff is related to El Niño Southern Oscillation, and precipitation and evaporation south of 12°N are related to the Caribbean Low Level Jet. During El Niño years the maximum salinification occurs in the dry season (December-February) while in La Niña years the maximum dilution (or freshening), reaching La Guajira Coastal Zone, occurs in the wet season (September-November). PMID:28777801

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

Despite the strong dependence of the Power Dissipation Index (PDI), which is a measure of the intensity of Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, on tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), the variations in PDI are not completely explained by SST. Here we show, using an analysis of a string of observational data sets, that the variability of the thermocline depth (TD) in the east Pacific exerts a significant degree of control on the variability of PDI in that region. On average, a deep thermocline with a larger reservoir of heat favors TC intensification by reducing SST cooling while a shallow thermocline with amore » smaller heat reservoir promotes enhanced SST cooling that contributes to TC decay. At interannual time scales, the variability of basin-mean TD accounts for nearly 30% of the variability in the PDI during the TC season. Also, about 20% of the interannual variability in the east Pacific basin-mean TD is due to the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a dominant climate signal in this region. This study suggests that a better understanding of the factors governing the interannual variability of the TD conditions in the east Pacific and how they may change over time, may lead to an improved projection of future east Pacific TC activity.« less

Long-term nadir observations of the O2 dayglow by SPICAM IR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guslyakova, S.; Fedorova, A.; Lefèvre, F.; Korablev, O.; Montmessin, F.; Trokhimovskiy, A.; Bertaux, J. L.

2016-03-01

The O2(a1Δg) dayglow at the 1.27 μm band on Mars is produced by the solar UV photolysis of ozone and quenched in collisions with CO2. The SPICAM IR instrument onboard the Mars Express orbiter observes the O2(a1Δg) emission in the Martian atmosphere starting from 2004. We present a continuous set of O2(a1Δg) dayglow intensities from nadir measurements for six Martian years from the end of MY26 to MY32. Maximum values of the O2(a1Δg) dayglow reaching 31 MR were observed in early northern and southern springs in both hemispheres. Near the equator a spring maximum of 5-8 MR was observed for all years. The emission intensity is minimum in the Southern hemisphere in summer with values of 1-2 MR. Comparison of the data with GCM simulations and simultaneous ozone measurements by SPICAM UV allows to derive the quenching rate (k) of the excited O2 molecules by CO2, k=0.73×10-20 cm3 molecules-1 s-1. The interannual variation of the O2 emission has been studied after applying correction for the local time. The O2(a1Δg) seasonal pattern is rather stable with average year-to-year relative variation of about 21%, in accord with interannual variations detected from the ground (Krasnopolsky, 2013). The most variable region corresponds to northern and southern spring at middle latitudes, coinciding with sublimation of the polar caps in both hemispheres. Southern latitudes also show a high year-to-year variability in summer (Ls=270-330°) relating to the dust activity in this region. A comparison with simultaneous SPICAM water vapor observations shows that the O2(a1Δg) dayglow depends on the water vapor variations, and clearly confirms their anti-correlation, excepting the case of low and middle latitudes in the aphelion period.

Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esselborn, Saskia; Rudenko, Sergei; Schöne, Tilo

2018-03-01

Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr-1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr-1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the observed orbit-related errors are further investigated. The main contributors on all timescales are uncertainties in Earth's time-variable gravity field models and on annual to interannual timescales discrepancies of the tracking station subnetworks, i.e. satellite laser ranging (SLR) and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS).

Simulation of climatology and Interannual Variability of Spring Persistent Rains by Meteorological Research Institute Model: Impacts of different horizontal resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Puxi; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei

2016-04-01

The authors evaluated the performance of Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) AGCM3.2 models in the simulations of climatology and interannual variability of the Spring Persistent Rains (SPR) over southeastern China. The possible impacts of different horizontal resolutions were also investigated based on the experiments with three different horizontal resolutions (i.e., 120, 60, and 20km). The model could reasonably reproduce the main rainfall center over southeastern China in boreal spring under the three different resolutions. In comparison with 120 simulation, it revealed that 60km and 20km simulations show the superiority in simulating rainfall centers anchored by the Nanling-Wuyi Mountains, but overestimate rainfall intensity. Water vapor budget diagnosis showed that, the 60km and 20km simulations tended to overestimate the water vapor convergence over southeastern China, which leads to wet biases. In the aspect of interannual variability of SPR, the model could reasonably reproduce the anomalous lower-tropospheric anticyclone in the western North Pacific (WNPAC) and positive precipitation anomalies over southeastern China in El Niño decaying spring. Compared with the 120km resolution, the large positive biases are substantially reduced in the mid and high resolution models which evidently improve the simulation of horizontal moisture advection in El Niño decaying spring. We highlight the importance of developing high resolution climate model as it could potentially improve the climatology and interannual variability of SPR.

Inversion analysis of estimating interannual variability and its uncertainties in biotic and abiotic parameters of a parsimonious physiologically based model after wind disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toda, M.; Yokozawa, M.; Richardson, A. D.; Kohyama, T.

2011-12-01

The effects of wind disturbance on interannual variability in ecosystem CO2 exchange have been assessed in two forests in northern Japan, i.e., a young, even-aged, monocultured, deciduous forest and an uneven-aged mixed forest of evergreen and deciduous trees, including some over 200 years old using eddy covariance (EC) measurements during 2004-2008. The EC measurements have indicated that photosynthetic recovery of trees after a huge typhoon occurred during early September in 2004 activated annual carbon uptake of both forests due to changes in physiological response of tree leaves during their growth stages. However, little have been resolved about what biotic and abiotic factors regulated interannual variability in heat, water and carbon exchange between an atmosphere and forests. In recent years, an inverse modeling analysis has been utilized as a powerful tool to estimate biotic and abiotic parameters that might affect heat, water and CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and forest of a parsimonious physiologically based model. We conducted the Bayesian inverse model analysis for the model with the EC measurements. The preliminary result showed that the above model-derived NEE values were consistent with observed ones on the hourly basis with optimized parameters by Baysian inversion. In the presentation, we would examine interannual variability in biotic and abiotic parameters related to heat, water and carbon exchange between the atmosphere and forests after disturbance by typhoon.

Study of Tropospheric Ozone and UV Reflectivity Using TOMS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Yuk L.

2002-01-01

Perhaps the single most important result from the study of Chuang and Yung is that the interannual variability of the Earth's albedo (especially in Spring) on land is dominated by snow/ice, and not by clouds. This interannual variability could be the major driver of changes in the atmosphere and the biosphere. It is plausible that the interannual variability of snow/ice, through interactions with the atmosphere and biosphere, is responsible for the interannual variability of atmospheric CO2. By carefully studying the albedo variations off the Peru coast, we found evidence for indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Based on a detailed analysis of the cloud data obtained by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (SCCP) in the years 1983-1991, we show that besides the reported 3 % variation in global cloudiness, the global mean cloud optical thickness (MCOT) also has significant variation which is out of phase with that of the global cloudiness. The combined effect of the two opposing variations may be a null effect on the cloud reflectivity. These results are consistent with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) reflectively measurements. The MCOT variation is further shown to be correlated with both the solar cycle and the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) cycle. Our present analysis cannot distinguish which of the above two provides better correlation, although independent data from the High resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) from 1990 to 1996 favor the solar cycle. Future data are needed to identify the true cause of these changes.

Long term variabilities and tendencies of mesospheric lunar semidiurnal tide over Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathishkumar, S.; Sridharan, S.; Muhammed Kutty, P. V.; Gurubaran, S.

2017-10-01

The medium frequency radar deployed at Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E), which is located near the southmost tip of peninsular India, have been providing continuous data from the year 1993 to the year 2012 that helped to study the long term tendencies in the lunar tidal variabilities over this geographic location. In the present paper we present the results of seasonal, interannual and long-term variabilities of lunar semi-diurnal tides in the upper mesosphere over Tirunelveli. The present study also includes comparison with model values. The study shows that the tidal amplitudes are larger in the meridional components of the mesospheric winds than the zonal winds. The seasonal variations of the tides are similar in both the components. The tides show maximum amplitudes of about ∼5 m/s in February/March, secondary maximum amplitudes of about ∼3 m/s in September and minimum amplitudes during summer months (May-August). The observed seasonal variation of the lunar tides do not compare well with Vial and Forbes (1994) model values, though it is consistent with earlier observations. The lunar tidal phase in meridional winds leads that in zonal winds from January to June and from September to November, while the latter leads the former during July/August. The lunar tides show large interannual variability. There are unusual amplitude enhancements in the lunar tide in meridional winds during the winters of 2006 and 2009, when major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) occurred at high latitude northern hemisphere, whereas zonal lunar tide does not show any clear association with the SSW. Vertical wavelengths of lunar tides in zonal and meridional wind are in the range of 20-90 km. The vertical wavelengths of lunar tides in both zonal and meridional component are smaller in June and larger in November and December. The monthly mean zonal and meridional winds are subjected to regression analysis to study the tidal response to long-period oscillations, namely, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), solar cycle variation and El-nino southern oscillation (ENSO). It is found the lunar tide in both zonal and meridional winds show significant QBO response, whereas zonal tide only shows significant negative response to solar cycle and positive response to ENSO. Besides, zonal tide only shows significant long-term increasing trend.

A sensitivity study of the coupled simulation of the Northeast Brazil rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Vasubandhu

2007-06-01

Two long-term coupled ocean-land-atmosphere simulations with slightly different parameterization of the diagnostic shallow inversion clouds in the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) coupled climate model are compared for their annual cycle and interannual variability of the northeast Brazil (NEB) rainfall variability. It is seen that the solar insolation affected by the changes to the shallow inversion clouds results in large scale changes to the gradients of the SST and the surface pressure. The latter in turn modulates the surface convergence and the associated Atlantic ITCZ precipitation and the NEB annual rainfall variability. In contrast, the differences in the NEB interannual rainfall variability between the two coupled simulations is attributed to their different remote ENSO forcing.

Hydroclimate variations in central and monsoonal Asia over the past 700 years.

PubMed

Fang, Keyan; Chen, Fahu; Sen, Asok K; Davi, Nicole; Huang, Wei; Li, Jinbao; Seppä, Heikki

2014-01-01

Hydroclimate variations since 1300 in central and monsoonal Asia and their interplay on interannual and interdecadal timescales are investigated using the tree-ring based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions. Both the interannual and interdecadal variations in both regions are closely to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). On interannual timescale, the most robust correlations are observed between PDO and hydroclimate in central Asia. Interannual hydroclimate variations in central Asia are more significant during the warm periods with high solar irradiance, which is likely due to the enhanced variability of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the high-frequency component of PDO, during the warm periods. We observe that the periods with significant interdecadal hydroclimate changes in central Asia often correspond to periods without significant interdecadal variability in monsoonal Asia, particularly before the 19th century. The PDO-hydroclimate relationships appear to be bridged by the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and Tibetan Plateau, a key area of PDO. While, in some periods the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and monsoonal Asia may lead to significant interdecadal hydroclimate variations in monsoonal Asia.

Hydroclimate Variations in Central and Monsoonal Asia over the Past 700 Years

PubMed Central

Fang, Keyan; Chen, Fahu; Sen, Asok K.; Davi, Nicole; Huang, Wei; Li, Jinbao; Seppä, Heikki

2014-01-01

Hydroclimate variations since 1300 in central and monsoonal Asia and their interplay on interannual and interdecadal timescales are investigated using the tree-ring based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions. Both the interannual and interdecadal variations in both regions are closely to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). On interannual timescale, the most robust correlations are observed between PDO and hydroclimate in central Asia. Interannual hydroclimate variations in central Asia are more significant during the warm periods with high solar irradiance, which is likely due to the enhanced variability of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the high-frequency component of PDO, during the warm periods. We observe that the periods with significant interdecadal hydroclimate changes in central Asia often correspond to periods without significant interdecadal variability in monsoonal Asia, particularly before the 19th century. The PDO-hydroclimate relationships appear to be bridged by the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and Tibetan Plateau, a key area of PDO. While, in some periods the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and monsoonal Asia may lead to significant interdecadal hydroclimate variations in monsoonal Asia. PMID:25119567

Tightening of tropical ascent and high clouds key to precipitation change in a warmer climate

PubMed Central

Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Neelin, J. David; Shen, T. Janice; Zhai, Chengxing; Yue, Qing; Wang, Zhien; Huang, Lei; Choi, Yong-Sang; Stephens, Graeme L.; Yung, Yuk L.

2017-01-01

The change of global-mean precipitation under global warming and interannual variability is predominantly controlled by the change of atmospheric longwave radiative cooling. Here we show that tightening of the ascending branch of the Hadley Circulation coupled with a decrease in tropical high cloud fraction is key in modulating precipitation response to surface warming. The magnitude of high cloud shrinkage is a primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the changes of tropical-mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming (dP/dTs) for both interannual variability and global warming. Compared to observations, most Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 models underestimate the rates of interannual tropical-mean dOLR/dTs and global-mean dP/dTs, consistent with the muted tropical high cloud shrinkage. We find that the five models that agree with the observation-based interannual dP/dTs all predict dP/dTs under global warming higher than the ensemble mean dP/dTs from the ∼20 models analysed in this study. PMID:28589940

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on food production in the Ganges basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siderius, Christian; Biemans, Hester; van Walsum, Paul; hellegers, Petra; van Ierland, Ekko; Kabat, Pavel

2014-05-01

Rainfall variability is expected to increase in the coming decades as the world warms. Especially in regions already water stressed, a higher rainfall variability will jeopardize food security. Recently, the impact of inter-annual rainfall variability has received increasing attention in regional to global analysis on water availability and food security. But the description of the dynamics behind it is still incomplete in most models. Contemporary land surface and hydrological models used for such analyses describe variability in production primarily as a function of yield, a process driven by biophysical parameters, thereby neglecting yearly variations in cropped area, a process driven largely by management decisions. Agricultural statistics for northern India show that the latter process could explain up to 40% of the observed inter-annual variation in food production in various states. We added a simple dynamic land use decision module to a land surface model (LPJmL) and analyzed to what extent this improved the estimation of variability in food production. Using this improved modelling framework we then assessed if and at which scale rainfall variability affects meeting the food self-sufficiency threshold. Early results for the Ganges Basin indicate that, while on basin level variability in crop production is still relatively low, several districts and states are highly affected (RSTD > 50%). Such insight can contribute to better recommendations on the most effective measures, at the most appropriate scale, to buffer variability in food production.

Interannual Variability of Ammonia Concentrations over the United States: Sources and Implications for Inorganic Particulate Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiferl, L. D.; Heald, C. L.; Van Damme, M.; Pierre-Francois, C.; Clerbaux, C.

2015-12-01

Modern agricultural practices have greatly increased the emission of ammonia (NH3) to the atmosphere. Recent controls to reduce the emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides (SOX and NOX) have increased the importance of understanding the role ammonia plays in the formation of surface fine inorganic particulate matter (PM2.5) in the United States. In this study, we identify the interannual variability in ammonia concentration, explore the sources of this variability and determine their contribution to the variability in surface PM2.5 concentration. Over the summers of 2008-2012, measurements from the Ammonia Monitoring Network (AMoN) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite instrument show considerable variability in both surface and column ammonia concentrations (+/- 29% and 28% of the mean), respectively. This observed variability is larger than that simulated by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, where meteorology dominates the variability in ammonia and PM2.5 concentrations compared to the changes caused by SOX and NOX reductions. Our initial simulation does not include year-to-year changes in ammonia agricultural emissions. We use county-wide information on fertilizer sales and livestock populations, as well as meteorological variations to account for the interannual variability in agricultural activity and ammonia volatilization. These sources of ammonia emission variability are important for replicating observed variations in ammonia and PM2.5, highlighting how accurate ammonia emissions characterization is central to PM air quality prediction.

Relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation in Singapore during 1980-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

2017-04-01

Observed studies on inter-annual variation of precipitation provide insight into the response of precipitation to anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. Inter-annual variation of precipitation results from the concurrent variations of precipitation frequency and intensity, understanding of the relative importance of frequency and intensity in the variability of precipitation can help fathom its changing properties. Investigation of the long-term changes of precipitation schemes has been extensively carried out in many regions across the world, however, detailed studies of the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation are still limited, especially in the tropics. Therefore, this study presents a comprehensive framework to investigate the inter-annual variation of precipitation and the dominance of precipitation frequency and intensity in a tropical urban city-state, Singapore, based on long-term (1980-2013) daily precipitation series from 22 rain gauges. First, an iterative Mann-Kendall trend test method is applied to detect long-term trends in precipitation total, frequency and intensity at both annual and seasonal time scales. Then, the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inducing the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation total is analyzed using a dominance analysis method based on linear regression. The results show statistically significant upward trends in wet-day precipitation total, frequency and intensity at annual time scale, however, these trends are not evident during the monsoon seasons. The inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation intensity for most of the stations at annual time scale and during the Northeast monsoon season. However, during the Southwest monsoon season, the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation frequency. These results have implications for water resources management practices in Singapore.

Configuration and Intraseasonal Duration of Interannual Anomalies of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helfand, H. M.

2002-01-01

Despite the fact that the low-level jet of the southern Great Plains (the GPLLJ) of the U.S. is primarily a nocturnal phenomenon that virtually vanishes during the daylight hours, it is one of the most persistent and stable climatological features of the low-level continental flow during the warm-season months, May through August. We have used significant-level data to validate the skill of the GEOS-1 Data Assimilation System (DAS) in realistically detecting this jet and inferring its structure and evolution. We have then carried out a 15-year reanalysis with the GEOS-1 DAS to determine its climatology and mean diurnal cycle and to study its interannual variability. Interannual anomalies of the meridional flow associated with the GPLLJ are much smaller than the mean diurnal fluctuations, than random intraseasonal anomalies, and than the mean wind itself. There are three maxima of low-level meridional flow variance over the Great Plains and the Gulf of Mexico: a 1.2 m2 s-2 peak over the southeast Texas, to the east and south of the mean velocity peak, a 1.0 m2 s-2 peak over the western Gulf of Mexico, and a .8 m2 s-2 peak over the upper Great Plains (UGP), near the Nebraska/South Dakota border. Each of the three variance maxima corresponds to a spatially coherent, jet-like pattern of low-level flow interannual variability. There are also three dominant modes of interannual variability corresponding to the three variance maxima, but not in a simple one-to-one relationship. Cross-sectional profiles of mean southerly wind over Texas remain relatively stable and recognizable from year to year with only its eastward flank showing significant variability. This variability, however, exhibits a distinct, biennial oscillation during the first six to seven years of the reanalysis period and only then. This intermittent biennial oscillation (IBO, one of the three modes discussed in the previous paragraph) in the lowlevel flow is restricted to the region surrounding eastern Texas and is also evident in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set from about 1978 to 1985 or 1986 and again from 1995 to 2000. It is evident as well in surface pressure in both the GEOS-1 and NCEP/NCAR sets. The interannual anomalies do not necessarily persist uniformly throughout an entire season, but can fluctuate from one part of the season to the next. To estimate the characteristic sub-seasonal time scales for coherence of these fluctuations, we have taken the weekly anomaly of low-level wind at each point of the domain from the climatological average for that given point and that given week of the season and computed the covariance of its fluctuations over all weeks and over all years with the weekly climatological anomaly of the meridional wind at each of the three reference points discussed above. The typical duration of a coherent interannual anomaly within a given warm season increases with decreasing latitude from 2 to 3 weeks over the UGP, to 6 to 7 weeks over eastern Texas. Coherence over the western Gulf of Mexico is intermediate between the two with a typical duration of 4 to 5 weeks. There appears to be evidence that the interannual anomalies over Texas the Gulf propagate to the UGP after a week and those over the Gulf propagate there after 2 to 3 weeks. There also appears to be some reverse propagation of interannual anomalies over the UGP to Texas and to the Gulf after a period of about one week. The interannual anomalies in southerly flow over eastern Texas seem to correlate well with interannual anomalies of surface temperature and (negative) ground wetness and over western Texas.

Emergence of the significant local warming of Korea in CMIP5 projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo; Kim, Jee-Eun

2016-04-01

According to IPCC AR5, anthropogenic influence on warming is obvious in local scales, especially in some tropical regions. Detection of significant local warming is important for adaptation to climate change of society and ecosystem. Recently much attention has focused on the time of emergence (ToE) for the signal of anthropogenic climate change against the natural climate variability. Motivated from the previous studies, this study analyzes ToE of regional surface air temperature over Korea. Simulations of CMIP5 15 models are used for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. For each year, JJA and DJF temperature anomalies are calculated for the time period 1900-1929. For noise of interannual variability, natural-only historical simulations of CMIP5 12 models are used and the standard deviation of the time series is obtained. For signal of warming, we examine the year when the signal above 2 standard deviations is detected in 80% of the models using 30-year smoothed time series. According to our results, interannual variability is larger in land than ocean. Seasonally, it is larger in winter than in summer. Accordingly, ToE of summertime temperature is earlier than that in winter and is expected to appear in 2030s from three RCPs. The seasonal difference is consistent with previous studies. Wintertime ToE appears in 2040s for RCP85 and 2060s for RCP4.5. The different emergence time between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 reflects the influence of mitigation. In a similar way, daily maximum and minimum temperatures are analyzed. ToE of Tmin appears earlier than that of Tmax and difference is small. Acknowledgements. This study is supported by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMR-2012-B-2).

Climatology and inter-annual variability of the polar mesospheric winds inferred from meteor radar observations over Sodankylä (67N, 26E) during solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukianova, Renata; Kozlovsky, Alexander; Lester, Mark

2018-06-01

The inter-annual variability, climatological mean wind and tide fields in the northern polar mesosphere/lower thermosphere region of 82-98 km height are studied using observations by the meteor radar which has operated continuously during solar cycle 24 (from December 2008 onward) at the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory (67N, 26E). Summer mean zonal winds are characterized by westward flow, up to 25 m/s, at lower heights and eastward flow, up to 30 m/s, at upper heights. In the winter an eastward flow, up to 10 m/s, dominates at all heights. The meridional winds are characterized by a relatively weak poleward flow (few m/s) in the winter and equatorward flow in the summer, with a jet core (∼15 m/s) located slightly below 90 km. These systematically varying winds are dominated by the semidiurnal tides. The largest amplitudes, up to 30 m/s, are observed at higher altitudes in winter and a secondary maximum is seen in August-September. The diurnal tides are almost a factor of two weaker and peak in summer. The variability of individual years is dominated by the winter perturbations. During the period of observations major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) occurred in January 2009 and 2013. During these events the wind fields were strongly modified. The lowest altitude eastward winds maximized up to 25 m/s, that is by more twice that of the non-SSW years. The poleward flow considerably increases (up 10 m/s) and extends from the lower heights throughout the whole altitude range. The annual pattern in temperature at ∼90 km height over Sodankyla consists of warm winters (up to 200 K) and cold summers (∼120 K).

Kara Sea freshwater transport through Vilkitsky Strait: Variability, forcing, and further pathways toward the western Arctic Ocean from a model and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janout, Markus A.; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Hölemann, Jens A.; Rabe, Benjamin; Schauer, Ursula; Polyakov, Igor V.; Bacon, Sheldon; Coward, Andrew C.; Karcher, Michael; Lenn, Yueng-Djern; Kassens, Heidemarie; Timokhov, Leonid

2015-07-01

Siberian river water is a first-order contribution to the Arctic freshwater budget, with the Ob, Yenisey, and Lena supplying nearly half of the total surface freshwater flux. However, few details are known regarding where, when, and how the freshwater transverses the vast Siberian shelf seas. This paper investigates the mechanism, variability, and pathways of the fresh Kara Sea outflow through Vilkitsky Strait toward the Laptev Sea. We utilize a high-resolution ocean model and recent shipboard observations to characterize the freshwater-laden Vilkitsky Strait Current (VSC), and shed new light on the little-studied region between the Kara and Laptev Seas, characterized by harsh ice conditions, contrasting water masses, straits, and a large submarine canyon. The VSC is 10-20 km wide, surface intensified, and varies seasonally (maximum from August to March) and interannually. Average freshwater (volume) transport is 500 ± 120 km3 a-1 (0.53 ± 0.08 Sv), with a baroclinic flow contribution of 50-90%. Interannual transport variability is explained by a storage-release mechanism, where blocking-favorable summer winds hamper the outflow and cause accumulation of freshwater in the Kara Sea. The year following a blocking event is characterized by enhanced transports driven by a baroclinic flow along the coast that is set up by increased freshwater volumes. Eventually, the VSC merges with a slope current and provides a major pathway for Eurasian river water toward the western Arctic along the Eurasian continental slope. Kara (and Laptev) Sea freshwater transport is not correlated with the Arctic Oscillation, but rather driven by regional summer pressure patterns.

Investigating the role of the land surface in explaining the interannual variation of the net radiation balance over the Western Sahara and sub-Sahara

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Nicholson, Sharon

1987-01-01

The status of the data sets is discussed. Progress was made in both data analysis and modeling areas. The atmospheric and land surface contributions to the net radiation budget over the Sahara-Sahel region is being decoupled. The interannual variability of these two processes was investigated and this variability related to seasonal rainfall fluctuations. A modified Barnes objective analysis scheme was developed which uses an eliptic scan pattern and a 3-pass iteration of the difference fields.

Stratospheric ozone variations in the equatorial region as seen in Stratiospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shiotani, M.; Hasebe, F.

1994-07-01

An analysis is made of equatorial ozone variations for 5 years, 1984-1989, using the ozone profile data derived from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) instrument. Attention is focused on the annual cycle and also on interannual variability, particularly the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations in the lower stratosphere, where the largest contribution to total column ozone takes place. The annual variation in zonal mean total ozone around the equator is composed of symmetric and asymmetric modes with respect to the equator, with maximum contributions being around 19 km for the symmetric modemore » and around 25 km for the asymmetric mode. The persistent zonal wavenumber 1 structure observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer over the equator is almost missing in the SAGE-derived column amounts integrated in the stratosphere, suggesting a significant contribution from tropospheric ozone. Interannual variations in the equatorial ozone are dominated by the QBO above 20 km and the ENSO-related variation below 20 km. The ozone QBO is characterized by zonally uniform phase changes in association with the zonal wind QBO in the equatorial lower stratosphere. The ENSO-related ozone variation consists of both the east-west vacillation and the zonally uniform phase variation. During the El Nino event, the east-west contrast with positive (negative) deviations in the eastern (western) hemisphere is conspicuous, while the decreasing tendency of the zonal mean values is maximum at the same time.« less

Stratospheric ozone variations in the equatorial region as seen in Stratospheric and Gas Experiment data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Masato Shiotani; Fumio Hasebe

1994-07-20

An analysis is made of equatorial ozone variations for 5 years, 1984-1989, using the ozone profile data derived from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) instrument. Attention is focused on the annual cycle and also on interannual variability, particularly the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations in the lower stratosphere, where the largest contribution to total column ozone takes place. The annual variation in zonal mean total ozone around the equator is composed of symmetric and asymmetric modes with respect to the equator, with maximum contributions being around 19 km for the symmetric modemore » and around 25 km for the asymmetric mode. The persistent zonal wavenumber 1 structure observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer over the equator is almost missing in the SAGE-derived column amounts integrated in the stratosphere, suggesting a significant contribution from tropospheric ozone. Interannual variations in the equatorial ozone are dominated by the QBO above 20 km and the ENSO-related variation below 20 km. The ozone QBO is characterized by zonally uniform phase changes in association with the zonal wind QBO in the equatorial lower stratosphere. The ENSO-related ozone variation consists of both the east-west vacillation and the zonally uniform phase variation. During the El Nino event, the east-west contrast with positive (negative) deviations in the eastern (western) hemisphere is conspicuous, while the decreasing tendency of the zonal mean values is maximum at the same time. 28 refs., 13 figs.« less

What can surface measurements of long-lived trace gases tell us about interannual variability in UTLS transport?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, E. A.; Daniel, J. S.; Montzka, S. A.; Portmann, R. W.; Yu, P.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Moore, F. L.

2017-12-01

We use surface measurements of a number of long-lived trace gases, including CFC-11, CFC-12 and N2O, and a 3-box model to estimate the interannual variability of bulk stratospheric transport characteristics. Coherent features among the different surface measurements suggest that there have been periods over the last two decades with significant variability in the amount of stratospheric loss transported downward to the troposphere both globally and between the NH and SH. This is especially apparent around the year 2000 and in the recent period since 2013 when surface measurements suggest an overall slowdown of the transport of stratospheric air to the troposphere as well as a shift towards a relatively stronger stratospheric circulation in the SH compared to the NH. We compare these results to stratospheric satellite measurements, residual circulation estimates and global model simulations to check for consistency. The implications of not accounting for interannual variability in stratospheric loss transported to the surface in emission estimates of long-lived trace gases can be significant, including for those gases monitored by the Montreal Protocol and/or of climatic importance.

Multi-tissue analyses reveal limited inter-annual and seasonal variation in mercury exposure in an Antarctic penguin community.

PubMed

Brasso, Rebecka L; Polito, Michael J; Emslie, Steven D

2014-10-01

Inter-annual variation in tissue mercury concentrations in birds can result from annual changes in the bioavailability of mercury or shifts in dietary composition and/or trophic level. We investigated potential annual variability in mercury dynamics in the Antarctic marine food web using Pygoscelis penguins as biomonitors. Eggshell membrane, chick down, and adult feathers were collected from three species of sympatrically breeding Pygoscelis penguins during the austral summers of 2006/2007-2010/2011. To evaluate the hypothesis that mercury concentrations in penguins exhibit significant inter-annual variation and to determine the potential source of such variation (dietary or environmental), we compared tissue mercury concentrations with trophic levels as indicated by δ(15)N values from all species and tissues. Overall, no inter-annual variation in mercury was observed in adult feathers suggesting that mercury exposure, on an annual scale, was consistent for Pygoscelis penguins. However, when examining tissues that reflected more discrete time periods (chick down and eggshell membrane) relative to adult feathers, we found some evidence of inter-annual variation in mercury exposure during penguins' pre-breeding and chick rearing periods. Evidence of inter-annual variation in penguin trophic level was also limited suggesting that foraging ecology and environmental factors related to the bioavailability of mercury may provide more explanatory power for mercury exposure compared to trophic level alone. Even so, the variable strength of relationships observed between trophic level and tissue mercury concentrations across and within Pygoscelis penguin species suggest that caution is required when selecting appropriate species and tissue combinations for environmental biomonitoring studies in Antarctica.

Seasonal and interannual variability in the taxonomic composition and production dynamics of phytoplankton assemblages in Crater Lake, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

C. David, McIntire; Larson, Gary L.; Truitt, Robert E.

2007-01-01

Taxonomic composition and production dynamics of phytoplankton assemblages in Crater Lake, Oregon, were examined during time periods between 1984 and 2000. The objectives of the study were (1) to investigate spatial and temporal patterns in species composition, chlorophyll concentration, and primary productivity relative to seasonal patterns of water circulation; (2) to explore relationships between water column chemistry and the taxonomic composition of the phytoplankton; and (3) to determine effects of primary and secondary consumers on the phytoplankton assemblage. An analysis of 690 samples obtained on 50 sampling dates from 14 depths in the water column found a total of 163 phytoplankton taxa, 134 of which were identified to genus and 101 were identified to the species or variety level of classification. Dominant species by density or biovolume included Nitzschia gracilis, Stephanodiscus hantzschii, Ankistrodesmus spiralis, Mougeotia parvula, Dinobryon sertularia, Tribonema affine, Aphanocapsa delicatissima, Synechocystis sp., Gymnodinium inversum, and Peridinium inconspicuum. When the lake was thermally stratified in late summer, some of these species exhibited a stratified vertical distribution in the water column. A cluster analysis of these data also revealed a vertical stratification of the flora from the middle of the summer through the early fall. Multivariate test statistics indicated that there was a significant relationship between the species composition of the phytoplankton and a corresponding set of chemical variables measured for samples from the water column. In this case, concentrations of total phosphorus, ammonia, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and alkalinity were associated with interannual changes in the flora; whereas pH and concentrations of dissolved oxygen, orthophosphate, nitrate, and silicon were more closely related to spatial variation and thermal stratification. The maximum chlorophyll concentration when the lake was thermally stratified in August and September was usually between depths of 100 m and 120 m. In comparison, the depth of maximum primary production ranged from 60 m to 80 m at this time of year. Regression analysis detected a weak negative relationship between chlorophyll concentration and Secchi disk depth, a measure of lake transparency. However, interannual changes in chlorophyll concentration and the species composition of the phytoplankton could not be explained by the removal of the septic field near Rim Village or by patterns of upwelling from the deep lake. An alternative trophic hypothesis proposes that the productivity of Crater Lake is controlled primarily by long-term patterns of climatic change that regulate the supply of allochthonous nutrients.

On the Impact of Sea Level Fingerprints on the Estimation of the Meridional Geostrophic Transport in the Atlantic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, C. W.; Velicogna, I.

2017-12-01

The mid-ocean geostrophic transport accounts for more than half of the seasonal and inter-annual variabilities in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) based on the in-situ measurement from RAPID MOC/MOCHA array since 2004. Here, we demonstrate that the mid-ocean geostrophic transport estimates derived from ocean bottom pressure (OBP) are affected by the sea level fingerprint (SLF), which is a variation of the equi-geopotential height (relative sea level) due to rapid mass unloading of the entire Earth system and in particular from glaciers and ice sheets. This potential height change, although it alters the OBP, should not be included in the derivation of the mid-ocean geostrophic transport. This "pseudo" geostrophic-transport due to the SLF is in-phase with the seasonal and interannual signal in the upper mid-ocean geostrophic transport. The east-west SLF gradient across the Atlantic basin could be mistaken as a north-south geostrophic transport that increases by 54% of its seasonal variability and by 20% of its inter-annual variability. This study demonstrates for the first time the importance of this pseudo transport in both the annual and interannual signals by comparing the SLF with in-situ observation from RAPID MOC/MOCHA array. The pseudo transport needs to be taken into account if OBP measurements and remote sensing are used to derive mid-ocean geostrophic transport.

The Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Budgets of N2O and CCl3F

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, Sun; Prather, Michael J.; Rind, David H.

1999-01-01

The 6-year wind archives from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies/Global Climate-Middle Atmosphere Model (GISS/GCMAM) were in- put to the GISS/Harvard/Irvine Chemical Transport Model (G/H/I CTM) to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the budgets and distributions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and trichlorofluoromethane (CCl3F), with the corresponding chemical loss frequencies recycled and boundary conditions kept unchanged from year to year. The effects of ozone feedback and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were not included. However, the role of circulation variation in driving the lifetime variability is investigated. It was found that the global loss rates of these tracers are related to the extratropical planetary wave activity, which drives the tropical upward mass flux. For N2O, a semiannual signal in the loss rate variation is associated with the interhemispheric asymmetry in the upper stratospheric wave activity. For CCl3F, the semiannual signal is weaker, associated with the comparatively uniform wave episodes in the lower stratosphere. The loss rates lag behind the wave activity by about 1-2 months. The interannual variation of the GCM generated winds drives the interannual variation of the annually averaged lifetime. The year-to-year variations of the annually averaged lifetimes can be about 3% for N2O and 4% for CCl3F.

Coral-inferred Variability of Upstream Kuroshio Current from 1953-2004 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Yi, L.; Shen, C. C.; Hsin, Y. C.

2016-12-01

The Kuroshio Current (KC), one of the most important western boundary currents in the North Pacific Ocean, strongly impacts regional climate in East Asia and upper-ocean thermal structure. However, the responses of KC to regional and remote climate forcing are poorly understood owing to lacking of long-term KC observations. Here, we present a sea surface temperature (SST) record from 1953 to 2004 AD derived from monthly skeletal δ18O data of a living coral Porites core, drilled in Nanwan, southern Taiwan (22°N, 121°E), located on the western front of the Upstream KC. The increased/reduced Kuroshio transport would generate stronger/weaker upwelling in Southern Taiwan, which can cause lower/higher SST. Agreement between dynamics of interannual coral δ18O and modern KC data shows that the regional coral δ18O can be used as a promising proxy for Upstream KC intensity. The KC-induced SST anomaly record reveals prominent interannual and decadal variability predominantly controlled by the bifurcation latitude of North Equatorial Current. We also find that the reconstructed KC intensity at east of Taiwan and south of Japan have nearly simultaneous interannual changes, suggesting the same dominant forcing(s) for the entire KC system. Additional work is needed to understand the KC system with respect to the interannual to decadal climate variability and the influences of global warming.

Dominance of ENSO-Like Variability in Controlling Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes in the Satellite Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Miller, T. L.; Bosilovich, M. G.

2008-01-01

Ocean surface turbulent and radiative fluxes are critical links in the climate system since they mediate energy exchange between the two fluid systems (ocean and atmosphere) whose combined heat transport determines the basic character of Earth's climate. Moreover, interannual to decadal climate variability depends crucially on the nature of these exchange processes. For example, addressing the question of the degree to which the global hydrologic cycle is changing depends on our ability to observe and model these fluxes accurately. In this work we investigate the interannual to decadal variation of fluxes over the global tropics, especially the tropical oceans. Recent versions of satellite-derived fresh water flux estimates as well as some reanalyses (e.g. products from Remote Sensing Systems, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, and Global Precipitation Climatology Project) suggest that increases in evaporation and precipitation over the past 20 years exceed those expected on the basis of climate model projected responses to greenhouse gas forcing. At the same time, it is well known that E1 Nino / Southern Oscillation behavior in the Pacific exhibits significant variability at scales longer than interannual. We examine here the degree to which surface fluxes attending these interannual to decadal fluctuations are related to ENSO. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations.

On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its relationship with El Nino

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperber, K.R., LLNL

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability at intraseasonal timescales. It displays substantial interannual variability in intensity which may have important implications for the predictability of the coupled system. The reasons for this interannual variability are not understood. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the interannual behavior of the MJO is related to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, particularly El Nino, and hence whether it is predictable. The interannual behavior of the MJO has been diagnosed initially in the 40-year NCEP/ NCAR Reanalysis. The results suggest that prior to the mid-1970s themore » activity of the MJO was consistently lower than during the latter part of the record. This may be related to either inadequacies in the data coverage, particularly over the tropical Indian Ocean prior to the introduction of satellite observations, or to the real effects of a decadal timescale warming in the tropical SSTs. The teleconnection patterns between interannual variations in MJO activity and SST show only a weak, barely significant, influence of El Nino in which the MJO is more active during the cold phase. As well as the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, a 4-member ensemble of 45 year integrations with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadAM2a), forced by observed SSTs for 1949-93, has been used to investigate the relationship between MJO activity and SST. HadAM2a is known to give a reasonable simulation of the MJO and the extended record provided by this ensemble of integrations allows a more robust investigation of the predictability of MJO activity than was possible with the 40-year NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The results have shown that, for the uncoupled system, with the atmosphere being driven by imposed SSTS, there is no reproducibility for the activity of the MJO from year to year. The interannual behavior of the MJO is not controlled by the phase of El Nino and would appear to be chaotic in character. However, the model results have confirmed the low frequency, decadal timescale variability of MJO activity seen in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The activity of the MJO is consistently lower in all realizations prior to the mid 1970s, suggesting that the MJO may become more active as tropical SSTs become warmer. This result may have implications for the effects of global warming on the coupled tropical atmosphere-ocean system.« less

Interannual variability in global mean sea level estimated from the CESM Large and Last Millennium Ensembles

DOE PAGES

Fasullo, John T.; Nerem, Robert S.

2016-10-31

To better understand global mean sea level (GMSL) as an indicator of climate variability and change, contributions to its interannual variation are quantified in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Last Millennium Ensemble. Consistent with expectations, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to exert a strong influence due to variability in rainfall over land (PL) and terrestrial water storage (TWS). Other important contributors include changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and precipitable water (PW). The temporal evolution of individual contributing terms is documented. The magnitude of peak GMSL anomalies associated with ENSO generally are of themore » order of 0.5 mm·K -1 with significant inter-event variability, with a standard deviation (σ) that is about half as large The results underscore the exceptional rarity of the 2010/2011 La Niña-related GMSL drop and estimate the frequency of such an event to be about only once in every 75 years. In addition to ENSO, major volcanic eruptions are found to be a key driver of interannual variability. Associated GMSL variability contrasts with that of ENSO as TWS and PW anomalies initially offset the drop due to OHC reductions but short-lived relative to them. Furthermore, responses up to 25 mm are estimated for the largest eruptions of the Last Millennium.« less

Interannual variability in global mean sea level estimated from the CESM Large and Last Millennium Ensembles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fasullo, John T.; Nerem, Robert S.

To better understand global mean sea level (GMSL) as an indicator of climate variability and change, contributions to its interannual variation are quantified in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Last Millennium Ensemble. Consistent with expectations, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to exert a strong influence due to variability in rainfall over land (PL) and terrestrial water storage (TWS). Other important contributors include changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and precipitable water (PW). The temporal evolution of individual contributing terms is documented. The magnitude of peak GMSL anomalies associated with ENSO generally are of themore » order of 0.5 mm·K -1 with significant inter-event variability, with a standard deviation (σ) that is about half as large The results underscore the exceptional rarity of the 2010/2011 La Niña-related GMSL drop and estimate the frequency of such an event to be about only once in every 75 years. In addition to ENSO, major volcanic eruptions are found to be a key driver of interannual variability. Associated GMSL variability contrasts with that of ENSO as TWS and PW anomalies initially offset the drop due to OHC reductions but short-lived relative to them. Furthermore, responses up to 25 mm are estimated for the largest eruptions of the Last Millennium.« less

Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Chang; Zheng, Xiao-Tong

2018-01-01

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The response of IOD to global warming is quite uncertain in climate model projections. In this study, the uncertainty in IOD change under global warming, especially that resulting from internal variability, is investigated based on the community earth system model large ensemble (CESM-LE). For the IOD amplitude change, the inter-member uncertainty in CESM-LE is about 50% of the intermodel uncertainty in the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, indicating the important role of internal variability in IOD future projection. In CESM-LE, both the ensemble mean and spread in mean SST warming show a zonal positive IOD-like (pIOD-like) pattern in the TIO. This pIOD-like mean warming regulates ocean-atmospheric feedbacks of the interannual IOD mode, and weakens the skewness of the interannual variability. However, as the changes in oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks counteract each other, the inter-member variability in IOD amplitude change is not correlated with that of the mean state change. Instead, the ensemble spread in IOD amplitude change is correlated with that in ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE, reflecting the close inter-basin relationship between the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean in this model.

Regional patterns of interannual variability of catchment water balances across the continental U.S.: A Budyko framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmona, Alejandra M.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Yaeger, Mary A.; Poveda, Germán.

2014-12-01

Patterns of interannual variability of the annual water balance are explored using data from 190 MOPEX catchments across the continental U.S. This analysis has led to the derivation of a quantitative, dimensionless, Budyko-type framework to characterize the observed interannual variability of annual water balances. The resulting model is expressed in terms of a humidity index that measures the competition between water and energy availability at the annual time scale, and a similarity parameter (α) that captures the net effects of other short-term climate features and local landscape characteristics. This application of the model to the 190 study catchments revealed the existence of space-time symmetry between spatial (between-catchment) variability and general trends in the temporal (between-year) variability of the annual water balances. The MOPEX study catchments were classified into eight similar catchment groups on the basis of magnitudes of the similarity parameter α. Interesting regional trends of α across the continental U.S. were brought out through identification of similarities between the spatial positions of the catchment groups with the mapping of distinctive ecoregions that implicitly take into account common climatic and vegetation characteristics. In this context, this study has introduced a deep sense of similarity that is evident in observed space-time variability of water balances that also reflect the codependence and coevolution of climate and landscape properties.

How much of the interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall is forced by SST?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Chao; Wu, Bo; Li, Chunhui; Lin, Ailan; Gu, Dejun; Zheng, Bin; Zhou, Tianjun

2016-07-01

It is widely accepted that the interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall is forced by sea surface temperature (SST), and SST anomalies are widely used as predictors of East Asian summer rainfall. But it is still not very clear what percentage of the interannual rainfall variability is contributed by SST anomalies. In this study, Atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by observed interannual varying SST are compared with those forced by the fixed annual cycle of SST climatology, and their ratios of interannual variance (IAV) are analyzed. The output of 12 models from the 5th Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are adopted, and idealized experiments are done by Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4). Both the multi-model median of CMIP5 models and CAM4 experiments show that only about 18 % of the IAV of rainfall over East Asian land (EAL) is explained by SST, which is significantly lower than the tropical western Pacific, but comparable to the mid-latitude western Pacific. There is no significant difference between the southern part and the northern part of EAL in the percentages of SST contribution. The remote SST anomalies regulates rainfall over EAL probably by modulating the horizontal water vapor transport rather than the vertical motion, since the horizontal water vapor transport into EAL is strongly modulated by SST but the vertical motion over EAL is not. Previous studies argued about the relative importance of tropical Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean to East Asian summer rainfall anomalies. Our idealized experiments performed by CAM4 suggest that the contributions from these two ocean basins are comparable to each other, both of which account for approximately 6 % of the total IAV of rainfall over EAL.

Interannual evolutions of (sub)mesoscale dynamics in the Bay of Biscay and the English Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charria, G.; Vandermeirsch, F.; Theetten, S.; Yelekçi, Ö.; Assassi, C.; Audiffren, N. J.

2016-02-01

In a context of global change, ocean regions as the Bay of the Biscay and the English Channel represent key domains to estimate the local impact on the coasts of interannual evolutions. Indeed, the coastal (considering in this project regions above the continental shelf) and regional (including the continental slope and the abyssal plain) environments are sensitive to the long-term fluctuations driven by the open ocean, the atmosphere and the watersheds. These evolutions can have impacts on the whole ecosystem. To understand and, by extension, forecast evolutions of these ecosystems, we need to go further in the description and the analysis of the past interannual variability over decadal to pluri-decadal periods. This variability can be described at different spatial scales from small (< 1 km) to basin scales (> 100 km). With a focus on smaller scales, the modelled dynamics, using a Coastal Circulation Model on national computing resources (GENCI/CINES), is discussed from interannual simulations (10 to 53 years) with different spatial (4 km to 1 km) and vertical (40 to 100 sigma levels) resolutions compared with available in situ observations. Exploring vorticity and kinetic energy based diagnostics; dynamical patterns are described including the vertical distribution of the mesoscale activity. Despite the lack of deep and spatially distributed observations, present numerical experiments draw a first picture of the 3D mesoscale distribution and its evolution at interannual time scales.

Interannual variability of monthly Southern Ocean sea ice distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1992-01-01

The interannual variability of the Southern-Ocean sea-ice distributions was mapped and analyzed using data from Nimbus-5 ESMR and Nimbus-7 SMMR, collected from 1973 to 1987. The set of 12 monthly maps obtained reveals many details on spatial variability that are unobtainable from time series of ice extents. These maps can be used as baseline maps for comparisons against future Southern Ocean sea ice distributions. The maps are supplemented by more detailed maps of the frequency of ice coverage, presented in this paper for one month within each of the four seasons, and by the breakdown of these results to the periods covered individually by each of the two passive-microwave imagers.

Vegetation response to rainfall seasonality and interannual variability in tropical dry forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Silva Souza, R. M.; Souza, E.; Antonino, A.; Montenegro, S.; Porporato, A. M.

2015-12-01

We analyzed the response of tropical dry forests to seasonal and interannual rainfall variability, focusing on the caatinga biome in semi-arid in Northeast Brazil. We selected four sites across a gradient of rainfall amount and seasonality and analyzed daily rainfall and biweekly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the period 2000-2014. The seasonal and interannual rainfall statistics were characterized using recently developed metrics describing duration, location, and intensity of wet season and compared them with those of NDVI time series and modelled soil moisture. A model of NDVI was also developed and forced by different rainfall scenarios (combination amount of rainfall and duration of wet season). The results show that the caatinga tends to have a more stable response characterized by longer and less variable growing seasons (of duration 3.1±0.1 months) compared to the rainfall wet seasons (2.0±0.5 months). Even for more extreme rainfall conditions, the ecosystem shows very little sensitivity to duration of wet season in relation to the amount of rainfall, however the duration of wet season is most evident for wetter sites. This ability of the ecosystem in buffering the interannual variability of rainfall is corroborated by the stability of the centroid location of the growing season compared to the wet season for all sites. The maximal biomass production was observed at intermediate levels of seasonality, suggesting a possible interesting trade-off in the effects of intensity (i.e., amount) and duration of the wet season on vegetation growth.

Challenges in modelling spatiotemporally varying phytoplankton blooms in the Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedigh Marvasti, S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Bidokhti, A. A.; Dunne, J. P.; Ghader, S.

2015-07-01

We examine interannual variability of phytoplankton blooms in northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. Satellite data (SeaWIFS ocean color) shows two climatological blooms in this region, a wintertime bloom peaking in February and a summertime bloom peaking in September. A pronounced anti-correlation between the AVISO sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and chlorophyll is found during the wintertime bloom. On a regional scale, interannual variability of the wintertime bloom is thus dominated by cyclonic eddies which vary in location from one year to another. These results were compared against the outputs from three different 3-D Earth System models. We show that two coarse (1°) models with the relatively complex biogeochemistry (TOPAZ) capture the annual cycle but neither eddies nor the interannual variability. An eddy-resolving model (GFDL CM2.6) with a simpler biogeochemistry (miniBLING) displays larger interannual variability, but overestimates the wintertime bloom and captures eddy-bloom coupling in the south but not in the north. The southern part of the domain is a region with a much sharper thermocline and nutricline relatively close to the surface, in which eddies modulate diffusive nutrient supply to the surface (a mechanism not previously emphasized in the literature). We suggest that for the model to simulate the observed wintertime blooms within cyclones, it will be necessary to represent this relatively unusual nutrient structure as well as the cyclonic eddies. This is a challenge in the Northern Arabian Sea as it requires capturing the details of the outflow from the Persian Gulf.

ENSO Related Interannual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel J.

2018-01-01

It has been shown that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production in the tropics and subtropics more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics. Using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for ENSO phase, lightning data were averaged into corresponding mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases. These processes were then studied for inter-annual variance and subsequent correlation to ENSO during the study period to best describe the observed lightning deviations from year to year at each location.

Interannual variability of the frontal activity in the Southern Hemisphere: relationship with atmospheric circulation and precipitation over southern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blázquez, Josefina; Solman, Silvina A.

2017-04-01

The interannual variability of the frontal activity over the western Southern Hemisphere and its linkage with the variability of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation over southern South America is studied. The analysis is focused on the austral winter and spring seasons. The frontal activity is represented by an index defined as the product between the horizontal gradient of temperature and the relative vorticity at 850 hPa (FI) and is computed from the ERA Interim and NCEP2 reanalysis. For the two seasons the main mode of variability of FI, as depicted by the first Empirical Orthogonal Function, presents centres of action located in the southern part of the western Southern Hemisphere. This pattern is present in the two reanalysis datasets. The correlation coefficients between the principal component of the leading mode of FI and the two main modes of the 500 hPa geopotential height indicate that both the ENSO-mode and the SAM modulate the leading pattern of FI in winter while during the spring season the ENSO-mode controls the FI variability. The variability of the FI has a robust influence on the interannual variability of precipitation over southern South America and adjacent oceans. Over the continent, it was found that the pattern of precipitation anomalies associated with the variability of the FI depicts significant signals over southeastern South America (SESA), centre and south of Chile for winter and over SESA and southeastern Brazil for spring and agrees with the pattern of the leading mode of precipitation variability over southern South America.

Variability of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency in a Large Ensemble of High-Resolution Climate Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, W.; Kamae, Y.; Xie, S. P.

2017-12-01

Forced and internal variability of North Atlantic hurricane frequency during 1951-2010 is studied using a large ensemble of climate simulations by a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model that is forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The simulations well capture the interannual-to-decadal variability of hurricane frequency in best track data, and further suggest a possible underestimate of hurricane counts in the current best track data prior to 1966 when satellite measurements were unavailable. A genesis potential index (GPI) averaged over the Main Development Region (MDR) accounts for more than 80% of the forced variations in hurricane frequency, with potential intensity and vertical wind shear being the dominant factors. In line with previous studies, the difference between MDR SST and tropical mean SST is a simple but useful predictor; a one-degree increase in this SST difference produces 7.1±1.4 more hurricanes. The hurricane frequency also exhibits internal variability that is comparable in magnitude to the interannual variability. The 100-member ensemble allows us to address the following important questions: (1) Are the observations equivalent to one realization of such a large ensemble? (2) How many ensemble members are needed to reproduce the variability in observations and in the forced component of the simulations? The sources of the internal variability in hurricane frequency will be identified and discussed. The results provide an explanation for the relatively week correlation ( 0.6) between MDR GPI and hurricane frequency on interannual timescales in observations.

Global Water Resources Under Future Changes: Toward an Improved Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, M.; Agata, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2005-05-01

Global water resources availability in the 21st century is going to be an important concern. Despite its international recognition, however, until now there are very limited global estimates of water resources, which considered the geographical linkage between water supply and demand, defined by runoff and its passage through river network. The available studies are again insufficient due to reasons like different approaches in defining water scarcity, simply based on annual average figures without considering the inter-annual or seasonal variability, absence of the inclusion of virtual water trading, etc. In this study, global water resources under future climate change associated with several socio-economic factors were estimated varying over both temporal and spatial scale. Global runoff data was derived from several land surface models under the GSWP2 (Global Soil Wetness Project) project, which was further processed through TRIP (Total Runoff Integrated Pathways) river routing model to produce a 0.5x0.5 degree grid based figure. Water abstraction was estimated for the same spatial resolution for three sectors as domestic, industrial and agriculture. GCM outputs from CCSR and MRI were collected to predict the runoff changes. Socio-economic factors like population and GDP growth, affected mostly the demand part. Instead of simply looking at annual figures, monthly figures for both supply and demand was considered. For an average year, such a seasonal variability can affect the crop yield significantly. In other case, inter-annual variability of runoff can cause for an absolute drought condition. To account for vulnerabilities of a region to future changes, both inter-annual and seasonal effects were thus considered. At present, the study assumed the future agricultural water uses to be unchanged under climatic changes. In this connection, EPIC model is underway to use for estimating future agricultural water demand under climatic changes on a monthly basis. From the estimation of present stress level (withdrawal to resource ratio), the months between January to May was found to have the highest number of population above water stress level, while the months between June to August having lower population in stress. The regions suffering from high seasonal variability are those of Asian monsoon zone, south-central Africa and central-east part of South America. Inter-annual variability, on the other hand, is dominant mostly along the Middle-east or Sahara regions and the western part of South America and Latin America. Virtual water trading among countries was estimated on per capita basis. It shows that many Middle east countries are able to compensate their water stress significantly through virtual water trading. The overall effect of climate change on lowering of river runoff mostly affected Europe, southern part of China and Latin America. India or Central Africa have better runoff availability under changing climate, but still subject to a higher water stress because of socio-economic factors like high population growth and expected increase in rate of water uses. Decrease in population as well as saturation level of maximum water uses along most European countries, on the contrary, relaxed the pressure of lowering river runoff, causing no significant change in future stress.

Modeling the impacts of phenological and inter-annual changes in landscape metrics on local biodiversity of agricultural lands of Eastern Ontario using multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alavi-Shoushtari, N.; King, D.

2017-12-01

Agricultural landscapes are highly variable ecosystems and are home to many local farmland species. Seasonal, phenological and inter-annual agricultural landscape dynamics have potential to affect the richness and abundance of farmland species. Remote sensing provides data and techniques which enable monitoring landscape changes in multiple temporal and spatial scales. MODIS high temporal resolution remote sensing images enable detection of seasonal and phenological trends, while Landsat higher spatial resolution images, with its long term archive enables inter-annual trend analysis over several decades. The objective of this study to use multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data to model the response of farmland species to landscape metrics. The study area is the predominantly agricultural region of eastern Ontario. 92 sample landscapes were selected within this region using a protocol designed to maximize variance in composition and configuration heterogeneity while controlling for amount of forest and spatial autocorrelation. Two sample landscape extents (1×1km and 3×3km) were selected to analyze the impacts of spatial scale on biodiversity response. Gamma diversity index data for four taxa groups (birds, butterflies, plants, and beetles) were collected during the summers of 2011 and 2012 within the cropped area of each landscape. To extract the seasonal and phenological metrics a 2000-2012 MODIS NDVI time-series was used, while a 1985-2012 Landsat time-series was used to model the inter-annual trends of change in the sample landscapes. The results of statistical modeling showed significant relationships between farmland biodiversity for several taxa and the phenological and inter-annual variables. The following general results were obtained: 1) Among the taxa groups, plant and beetles diversity was most significantly correlated with the phenological variables; 2) Those phenological variables which are associated with the variability in the start of season date across the sample landscapes and the variability in the corresponding NDVI values at that date showed the strongest correlation with the biodiversity indices; 3) The significance of the models improved when using 3×3km site extent both for MODIS and Landsat based models due most likely to the larger sample size over 3x3km.

Interannual Tropical Rainfall Variability in General Circulation Model Simulations Associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperber, K. R.; Palmer, T. N.

1996-11-01

The interannual variability of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, the African Sahel, and the Nordeste region of Brazil have been evaluated in 32 models for the period 1979-88 as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall are the most readily captured, owing to the intimate link with Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The precipitation variations over India and the Sahel are less well simulated. Additionally, an Indian monsoon wind shear index was calculated for each model. Evaluation of the interannual variability of a wind shear index over the summer monsoon region indicates that the models exhibit greater fidelity in capturing the large-scale dynamic fluctuations than the regional-scale rainfall variations. A rainfall/SST teleconnection quality control was used to objectively stratify model performance. Skill scores improved for those models that qualitatively simulated the observed rainfall/El Niño- Southern Oscillation SST correlation pattern. This subset of models also had a rainfall climatology that was in better agreement with observations, indicating a link between systematic model error and the ability to simulate interannual variations.A suite of six European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) AMIP runs (differing only in their initial conditions) have also been examined. As observed, all-India rainfall was enhanced in 1988 relative to 1987 in each of these realizations. All-India rainfall variability during other years showed little or no predictability, possibly due to internal chaotic dynamics associated with intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations and/or unpredictable land surface process interactions. The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall were best represented. The State University of New York at Albany/National Center for Atmospheric Research Genesis model was run in five initial condition realizations. In this model, the Nordeste rainfall variability was also best reproduced. However, for all regions the skill was less than that of the ECMWF model.The relationships of the all-India and Sahel rainfall/SST teleconnections with horizontal resolution, convection scheme closure, and numerics have been evaluated. Models with resolution T42 performed more poorly than lower-resolution models. The higher resolution models were predominantly spectral. At low resolution, spectral versus gridpoint numerics performed with nearly equal verisimilitude. At low resolution, moisture convergence closure was slightly more preferable than other convective closure techniques. At high resolution, the models that used moisture convergence closure performed very poorly, suggesting that moisture convergence may be problematic for models with horizontal resolution T42.

Seasonal and interannual cross-shelf transport over the Texas and Louisiana continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thyng, Kristen M.; Hetland, Robert D.

2018-05-01

Numerical drifters are tracked in a hydrodynamic simulation of circulation over the Texas-Louisiana shelf to analyze patterns in cross-shelf transport of materials. While the important forcing mechanisms in the region (wind, river, and deep eddies) and associated flow patterns are known, the resultant material transport is less well understood. The primary metric used in the calculations is the percent of drifters released within a region that cross the 100 m isobath. Results of the analysis indicate that, averaged over the eleven years of the simulation, there are two regions on the shelf - over the Texas shelf during winter, and over the Louisiana shelf in summer - with increased seasonal probability for offshore transport. Among the two other distinct regions, the big bend region in Texas has increased probability for onshore transport, and the Mississippi Delta region has an increase in offshore transport, for both seasons. Some of these regions of offshore transport have marked interannual variability. This interannual variability is correlated to interannual changes in forcing conditions. Winter transport off of the Texas shelf is correlated with winter mean wind direction, with more northerly winds enhancing offshore transport; summer transport off the Louisiana shelf is correlated with Mississippi River discharge.

Understanding interannual variability in the distribution of, and transport processes affecting, the early life stages of Todarodes pacificus using behavioral-hydrodynamic modeling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jung Jin; Stockhausen, William; Kim, Suam; Cho, Yang-Ki; Seo, Gwang-Ho; Lee, Joon-Soo

2015-11-01

To understand interannual variability in the distribution of the early life stages of Todarodes pacificus summer spawning population, and to identify the key transport processes influencing this variability, we used a coupled bio-physical model that combines an individual-based model (IBM) incorporating ontogenetic vertical migration for paralarval behavior and temperature-dependent survival process with a ROMS oceanographic model. Using the distribution of paralarvae observed in the northern East China Sea (ECS) during several field cruises as an end point, the spawning ground for the summer-spawning population was estimated to extend from southeast Jeju Island to the central ECS near 29°N by running the model backwards in time. Running the model forward, interannual variability in the distribution of paralarvae predicted by the model was consistent with that observed in several field surveys; surviving individuals in the northern ECS were substantially more abundant in late July 2006 than in 2007, in agreement with observed paralarval distributions. The total number of surviving individuals at 60 days after release based on the simulation throughout summer spawning period (June-August) was 20,329 for 2006, compared with 13,816 for 2007. The surviving individuals were mainly distributed in the East/Japan Sea (EJS), corresponding to a pathway following the nearshore branch of the Tsushima Warm Current flowing along the Japanese coast during both years. In contrast, the abundance of surviving individuals was extremely low in 2007 compared to 2006 on the Pacific side of Japan. Interannual variability in transport and survival processes made a substantial impact on not only the abundance of surviving paralarvae, but also on the flux of paralarvae to adjacent waters. Our simulation results for between-year variation in paralarval abundance coincide with recruitment (year n + 1) variability of T. pacificus in the field. The agreement between the simulation and field data indicates our model may be useful for predicting the recruitment of T. pacificus.

A comparison of extreme rainfall characteristics in the Brazilian Amazon derived from two gridded data sets and a national rain gauge network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Robin T.; Bulhoes Mendes, Carlos Andre; Costa Buarque, Diogo

2010-07-01

Two issues of particular importance for the Amazon watershed are: whether annual maxima obtained from reanalysis and raingauge records agree well enough for the former to be useful in extending records of the latter; and whether reported trends in Amazon annual rainfall are reflected in the behavior of annual extremes in precipitation estimated from reanalyses and raingauge records. To explore these issues, three sets of daily precipitation data (1979-2001) from the Brazilian Amazon were analyzed (NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, and records from the raingauge network of the Brazilian water resources agency - ANA), using the following variables: (1) mean annual maximum precipitation totals, accumulated over one, two, three and five days; (2) linear trends in these variables; (3) mean length of longest within-year "dry" spell; (4) linear trends in these variables. Comparisons between variables obtained from all three data sources showed that reanalyses underestimated time-trends and mean annual maximum precipitation (over durations of one to five days), and the correlations between reanalysis and spatially-interpolated raingauge estimates were small for these two variables. Both reanalyses over-estimated mean lengths of dry period relative to the mean length recorded by the raingauge network. Correlations between the trends calculated from all three data sources were small. Time-trends averaged over the reanalysis grid-squares, and spatially-interpolated time trends from raingauge data, were all clustered around zero. In conclusion, although the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 gridded data-sets may be valuable for studies of inter-annual variability in precipitation totals, they were found to be inappropriate for analysis of precipitation extremes.

Interannual Variability in Soil Trace Gas (CO2, N2O, NO) Fluxes and Analysis of Controllers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, C.; Klooster, S.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

Interannual variability in flux rates of biogenic trace gases must be quantified in order to understand the differences between short-term trends and actual long-term change in biosphere-atmosphere interactions. We simulated interannual patterns (1983-1988) of global trace gas fluxes from soils using the NASA Ames model version of CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) in a transient simulation mode. This ecosystem model has been recalibrated for simulations driven by satellite vegetation index data from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) over the mid-1980s. The predicted interannual pattern of soil heterotropic CO2 emissions indicates that relatively large increases in global carbon flux from soils occurred about three years following the strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event of 1983. Results for the years 1986 and 1987 showed an annual increment of +1 Pg (1015 g) C-CO2 emitted from soils, which tended to dampen the estimated global increase in net ecosystem production with about a two year lag period relative to plant carbon fixation. Zonal discrimination of model results implies that 80-90 percent of the yearly positive increments in soil CO2 emission during 1986-87 were attributable to soil organic matter decomposition in the low-latitudes (between 30 N and 30 S). Soils of the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 N and 60 N) accounted for the residual of these annual increments. Total annual emissions of nitrogen trace gases (N2O and NO) from soils were estimated to vary from 2-4 percent over the time period modeled, a level of variability which is consistent with predicted interannual fluctuations in global soil CO2 fluxes. Interannual variability of precipitation in tropical and subtropical zones (30 N to 20 S appeared to drive the dynamic inverse relationship between higher annual emissions of NO versus emissions of N2O. Global mean emission rates from natural (heterotrophic) soil sources over the period modeled (1983-1988) were estimated at 57.1 Pg C-CO2yr-1, 9.8Tg (1012 g) N-NO yr-1, and 9.7 Tg N-N2O yr-1. Chemical fertilizer contributions to global soil N gas fluxes were estimated at between 1.3 to 7.3 Tg N-NO yr-1, and 1.2 to 4.0 Tg N-N2O yr-1.

A Comparison of Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Soil Dust Aerosols Over the Atlantic Ocean as Inferred by the Toms AI and AVHRR AOT Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cakmur, R. V.; Miller, R. L.; Tegen, Ina; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The seasonal cycle and interannual variability of two estimates of soil (or 'mineral') dust aerosols are compared: Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index (AI), Both data sets, comprising more than a decade of global, daily images, are commonly used to evaluate aerosol transport models. The present comparison is based upon monthly averages, constructed from daily images of each data set for the period between 1984 and 1990, a period that excludes contamination from volcanic eruptions. The comparison focuses upon the Northern Hemisphere subtropical Atlantic Ocean, where soil dust aerosols make the largest contribution to the aerosol load, and are assumed to dominate the variability of each data set. While each retrieval is sensitive to a different aerosol radiative property - absorption for the TOMS AI versus reflectance for the AVHRR AOT - the seasonal cycles of dust loading implied by each retrieval are consistent, if seasonal variations in the height of the aerosol layer are taken into account when interpreting the TOMS AI. On interannual time scales, the correlation is low at most locations. It is suggested that the poor interannual correlation is at least partly a consequence of data availability. When the monthly averages are constructed using only days common to both data sets, the correlation is substantially increased: this consistency suggests that both TOMS and AVHRR accurately measure the aerosol load in any given scene. However, the two retrievals have only a few days in common per month so that these restricted monthly averages have a large uncertainty. Calculations suggest that at least 7 to 10 daily images are needed to estimate reliably the average dust load during any particular month, a threshold that is rarely satisfied by the AVHRR AOT due to the presence of clouds in the domain. By rebinning each data set onto a coarser grid, the availability of the AVHRR AOT is increased during any particular month, along with its interannual correlation with the TOMS AI The latter easily exceeds the sampling threshold due to its greater ability to infer the aerosol load in the presence of clouds. Whether the TOMS AI should be regarded as a more reliable indicator of interannual variability depends upon the extent of contamination by sub-pixel clouds.

One hundred years of Arctic ice cover variations as simulated by a one-dimensional, ice-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakkinen, S.; Mellor, G. L.

1990-09-01

A one-dimensional ice-ocean model consisting of a second moment, turbulent closure, mixed layer model and a three-layer snow-ice model has been applied to the simulation of Arctic ice mass and mixed layer properties. The results for the climatological seasonal cycle are discussed first and include the salt and heat balance in the upper ocean. The coupled model is then applied to the period 1880-1985, using the surface air temperature fluctuations from Hansen et al. (1983) and from Wigley et al. (1981). The analysis of the simulated large variations of the Arctic ice mass during this period (with similar changes in the mixed layer salinity) shows that the variability in the summer melt determines to a high degree the variability in the average ice thickness. The annual oceanic heat flux from the deep ocean and the maximum freezing rate and associated nearly constant minimum surface salinity flux did not vary significantly interannually. This also implies that the oceanic influence on the Arctic ice mass is minimal for the range of atmospheric variability tested.

Observational Diagnoses of Extratropical Ozone STE from 2005-2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, Mark A.; Douglass, Anne R.; Witte, Jacquie C.; Kaplan, Trevor B.

2011-01-01

The transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the extratropical troposphere is an important boundary condition to tropospheric chemistry. However, previous direct estimates from models and indirect estimates from observations have poorly constrained the magnitude of ozone stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). In this study we provide a direct diagnosis of the extratropical ozone STE using data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on Aura and output of the MERRA reanalysis over the time period from 2005 to the present. We find that the mean annual STE is about 275 Tg yr-1 and 205 Tg yr-1 in the NH and SH, respectively. The interannual variability of the magnitude is about twice as great in the NH than the SH. This variability is dominated by the seasonal variability during the late winter and spring. A comparison of the ozone flux to the mass flux reveals that there is not a simple relationship between the two quantities. This presentation will also examine the magnitude and distribution of ozone in the lower stratosphere relative to the years of maximum and minimum ozone STE

Intraseasonal and interannual oscillations in coupled ocean-atmosphere models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hirst, Anthony C.; Lau, K.-M.

1990-01-01

An investigation is presented of coupled ocean-atmosphere models' behavior in an environment where atmospheric wave speeds are substantially reduced from dry atmospheric values by such processes as condensation-moisture convergence. Modes are calculated for zonally periodic, unbounded ocean-atmosphere systems, emphasizing the importance of an inclusion of prognostic atmosphere equations in simple coupled ocean-atmosphere models with a view to simulations of intraseasonal variability and its possible interaction with interannual variability. The dynamics of low and high frequency modes are compared; both classes are sensitive to the degree to which surface wind anomalies are able to affect the evaporation rate.

Determination of Arctic sea ice variability modes on interannual timescales via nonhierarchical clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fučkar, Neven-Stjepan; Guemas, Virginie; Massonnet, François; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

2015-04-01

Over the modern observational era, the northern hemisphere sea ice concentration, age and thickness have experienced a sharp long-term decline superimposed with strong internal variability. Hence, there is a crucial need to identify robust patterns of Arctic sea ice variability on interannual timescales and disentangle them from the long-term trend in noisy datasets. The principal component analysis (PCA) is a versatile and broadly used method for the study of climate variability. However, the PCA has several limiting aspects because it assumes that all modes of variability have symmetry between positive and negative phases, and suppresses nonlinearities by using a linear covariance matrix. Clustering methods offer an alternative set of dimension reduction tools that are more robust and capable of taking into account possible nonlinear characteristics of a climate field. Cluster analysis aggregates data into groups or clusters based on their distance, to simultaneously minimize the distance between data points in a given cluster and maximize the distance between the centers of the clusters. We extract modes of Arctic interannual sea-ice variability with nonhierarchical K-means cluster analysis and investigate the mechanisms leading to these modes. Our focus is on the sea ice thickness (SIT) as the base variable for clustering because SIT holds most of the climate memory for variability and predictability on interannual timescales. We primarily use global reconstructions of sea ice fields with a state-of-the-art ocean-sea-ice model, but we also verify the robustness of determined clusters in other Arctic sea ice datasets. Applied cluster analysis over the 1958-2013 period shows that the optimal number of detrended SIT clusters is K=3. Determined SIT cluster patterns and their time series of occurrence are rather similar between different seasons and months. Two opposite thermodynamic modes are characterized with prevailing negative or positive SIT anomalies over the Arctic basin. The intermediate mode, with negative anomalies centered on the East Siberian shelf and positive anomalies along the North American side of the basin, has predominately dynamic characteristics. The associated sea ice concentration (SIC) clusters vary more between different seasons and months, but the SIC patterns are physically framed by the SIT cluster patterns.

Bacterial community assembly in activated sludge: mapping beta diversity across environmental variables.

PubMed

Isazadeh, Siavash; Jauffur, Shameem; Frigon, Dominic

2016-12-01

Effect of ecological variables on community assembly of heterotrophic bacteria at eight full-scale and two pilot-scale activated sludge wastewater treatment plants (AS-WWTPs) were explored by pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons. In total, 39 samples covering a range of abiotic factors spread over space and time were analyzed. A core bacterial community of 24 families detected in at least six of the eight AS-WWTPs was defined. In addition to the core families, plant-specific families (observed at <50% AS-WWTPs) were found to be also important in the community structure. Observed beta diversity was partitioned with respect to ecological variables. Specifically, the following variables were considered: influent wastewater characteristics, season (winter vs. summer), process operations (conventional, oxidation ditch, and sequence batch reactor), reactor sizes (pilot-scale vs. full-scale reactors), chemical stresses defined by ozonation of return activated sludge, interannual variation, and geographical locations. Among the assessed variables, influent wastewater characteristics and geographical locations contributed more in explaining the differences between AS-WWTP bacterial communities with a maximum of approximately 26% of the observed variations. Partitioning of beta diversity is necessary to interpret the inherent variability in microbial community assembly and identify the driving forces at play in engineered microbial ecosystem. © 2016 The Authors. MicrobiologyOpen published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seasonal and interannual variabilities of coccolithophore blooms in the Bay of Biscay and the Celtic Sea observed from a 18-year time-series of non-algal Suspended Particulate Matter images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrot, Laurie; Gohin, Francis; Ruiz-Pino, Diana; Lampert, Luis

2016-04-01

Coccolithophores belong to the nano-phytoplankton size-class and produce CaCO3 scales called coccoliths which form the «shell» of the algae cell. Coccoliths are in the size range of a few μm and can also be detached from the cell in the water. This phytoplankton group has an ubiquitous distribution in all oceans but blooms only in some oceanic regions, like the North East Atlantic ocean and the South Western Atlantic (Patagonian Sea). At a global scale coccolithopore blooms are studied in regard of CaCO3 production and three potential feedback on climate change: albedo modification by the way of dimethylsulfide (DMS) production and atmospheric CO2 source by calcification and a CO2 pump by photosynthesis. As the oceans are more and more acidified by anthropogenic CO2 emissions, coccolithophores generally are expected to be negatively affected. However, recent studies have shown an increase in coccolithophore occurrence in the North Atlantic. A poleward expansion of the coccolithophore Emiliana Huxleyi has also been pointed out. By using a simplified fuzzy method applied to a 18-year time series of SeaWiFS (1998-2002) and MODIS (2003-2015) spectral reflectance, we assessed the seasonal and inter-annual variability of coccolithophore blooms in the vicinity of the shelf break in the Bay of Biscay and the Celtic Sea After identification of the coccolith pixels by applying the fuzzy method, the abundance of coccoliths is assessed from a database of non-algal Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM). Although a regular pattern in the phenology of the blooms is observed, starting south in April in Biscay and moving northwards until July in Ireland, there is a high seasonal and interannual variability in the extent of the blooms. Year 2014 shows very low concentrations of detached coccoliths (twice less than average) from space and anomalies point out the maximum level in 2001. Non-algal SPM, derived from a procedure defined for the continental shelf, appears to be well related to the calcite concentration provided by NASA, and correlates better with coccolith than coccosphere in-situ data.

Fishing and bottom water temperature as drivers of change in maximum shell length in Atlantic surfclams (Spisula solidissima)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munroe, D. M.; Narváez, D. A.; Hennen, D.; Jacobson, L.; Mann, R.; Hofmann, E. E.; Powell, E. N.; Klinck, J. M.

2016-03-01

Maximum shell length of Atlantic surfclams (Spisula solidissima) on the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) continental shelf, obtained from federal fishery survey data from 1982-present, has decreased by 15-20 mm. Two potential causes of this decreasing trend, fishery removal of large animals and stress due to warming bottom temperatures, were investigated using an individual-based model for post-settlement surfclams and a fifty-year hindcast of bottom water temperatures on the MAB. Simulations showed that fishing and/or warming bottom water temperature can cause decreases in maximum surfclam shell length (body size) equivalent to those observed in the fished stock. Independently, either localized fishing rates of 20% or sustained bottom temperatures that are 2 °C warmer than average conditions generate the observed decrease in maximum shell length. However, these independent conditions represent extremes and are not sustained in the MAB. The combined effects of fishing and warmer temperatures can generate simulated length decreases that are similar to observed decreases. Interannual variability in bottom water temperatures can also generate fluctuations in simulated shell length of up to 20 mm over a period of 10-15 years. If the change in maximum size is not genotypic, simulations also suggest that shell size composition of surfclam populations can recover if conditions change; however, that recovery could take a decade to become evident.

Anomalous Variability in Antarctic Sea Ice Extents During the 1960s With the Use of Nimbus Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallaher, David W.; Campbell, G. Garrett; Meier, Walter N.

2014-01-01

The Nimbus I, II, and III satellites provide a new opportunity for climate studies in the 1960s. The rescue of the visible and infrared imager data resulted in the utilization of the early Nimbus data to determine sea ice extent. A qualitative analysis of the early NASA Nimbus missions has revealed Antarctic sea ice extents that are signicant larger and smaller than the historic 1979-2012 passive microwave record. The September 1964 ice mean area is 19.7x10 km +/- 0.3x10 km. This is more the 250,000 km greater than the 19.44x10 km seen in the new 2012 historic maximum. However, in August 1966 the maximum sea ice extent fell to 15.9x10 km +/- 0.3x10 km. This is more than 1.5x10 km below the passive microwave record of 17.5x10 km set in September of 1986. This variation between 1964 and 1966 represents a change of maximum sea ice of over 3x10 km in just two years. These inter-annual variations while large, are small when compared to the Antarctic seasonal cycle.

Mechanisms driving variability in the ocean forcing of Pine Island Glacier

PubMed Central

Webber, Benjamin G. M.; Heywood, Karen J.; Stevens, David P.; Dutrieux, Pierre; Abrahamsen, E. Povl; Jenkins, Adrian; Jacobs, Stanley S.; Ha, Ho Kyung; Lee, Sang Hoon; Kim, Tae Wan

2017-01-01

Pine Island Glacier (PIG) terminates in a rapidly melting ice shelf, and ocean circulation and temperature are implicated in the retreat and growing contribution to sea level rise of PIG and nearby glaciers. However, the variability of the ocean forcing of PIG has been poorly constrained due to a lack of multi-year observations. Here we show, using a unique record close to the Pine Island Ice Shelf (PIIS), that there is considerable oceanic variability at seasonal and interannual timescales, including a pronounced cold period from October 2011 to May 2013. This variability can be largely explained by two processes: cumulative ocean surface heat fluxes and sea ice formation close to PIIS; and interannual reversals in ocean currents and associated heat transport within Pine Island Bay, driven by a combination of local and remote forcing. Local atmospheric forcing therefore plays an important role in driving oceanic variability close to PIIS. PMID:28211473

Effect of inter-annual variability in pasture growth and irrigation response on farm productivity and profitability based on biophysical and farm systems modelling.

PubMed

Vogeler, Iris; Mackay, Alec; Vibart, Ronaldo; Rendel, John; Beautrais, Josef; Dennis, Samuel

2016-09-15

Farm system and nutrient budget models are increasingly being used in analysis to inform on farm decision making and evaluate land use policy options at regional scales. These analyses are generally based on the use of average annual pasture yields. In New Zealand (NZ), like in many countries, there is considerable inter-annual variation in pasture growth rates, due to climate. In this study a modelling approach was used to (i) include inter-annual variability as an integral part of the analysis and (ii) test the approach in an economic analysis of irrigation in a case study within the Hawkes Bay Region of New Zealand. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to generate pasture dry matter yields (DMY) for 20 different years and under both dryland and irrigation. The generated DMY were linked to outputs from farm-scale modelling for both Sheep and Beef Systems (Farmaxx Pro) and Dairy Systems (Farmax® Dairy Pro) to calculate farm production over 20 different years. Variation in DMY and associated livestock production due to inter-annual variation in climate was large, with a coefficient of variations up to 20%. Irrigation decreased this inter-annual variation. On average irrigation, with unlimited available water, increased income by $831 to 1195/ha, but when irrigation was limited to 250mm/ha/year income only increased by $525 to 883/ha. Using pasture responses in individual years to capturing the inter-annual variation, rather than the pasture response averaged over 20years resulted in lower financial benefits. In the case study income from irrigation based on an average year were 10 to >20% higher compared with those obtained from individual years. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phenological and physiological mechanisms underlying interannual variability of terrestrial net ecosystem production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, S.; Luo, Y.; Hui, D.; Chen, J.

2013-12-01

The interannual variability (IAV) of atmospheric CO2 concentration varies substantial and is largely ascribed to IAV of terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes. However, we have limited understanding on the mechanisms that control the IAV on the carbon flux of terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we hypothesized that physiological and phonological processes regulate IAV significantly in terrestrial carbon uptake (i.e., net ecosystem production, NEP). To test this hypothesis, we analyzed eddy-covariance data from 24 sites with more than 8 years data in deciduous broadleaf forests (DBF), evergreen forests (EF), and grasslands (GRA) in the northern hemisphere. Ecosystem physiology is represented by the maximum carbon uptake capacity (NEPmax) in one year whereas phonology is represented by carbon uptake period (CUP). We found that yearly anomalies of CUP and NEPmax accounted for 40% and 60% separately, and 73% in combination, of the anomalies in annual NEP across all the 253 site-years, with their relative contributions varying among the sites. The IAV of CUP was determined by the anomalies of spring and autumn carbon uptake phenology, both of which were sensitive to climate changes but controlled by different environmental factors in different biomes. IAV of NEPmax was determined by summer precipitation anomalies in DBF and GRA. The results suggest that IAV of NEP is consistently co-determined by CUP and NEPmax anomalies among sites in the northern hemisphere. Overall, the mechanisms revealed by our study on NEP anomalies through changing in phenology and physiology contribute to predictive understanding of temporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon uptake.

Interannual variability of carbon monoxide emission estimates over South America from 2006 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooghiemstra, P. B.; Krol, M. C.; van Leeuwen, T. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Novelli, P. C.; Deeter, M. N.; Aben, I.; Röckmann, T.

2012-08-01

We present the first inverse modeling study to estimate CO emissions constrained by both surface and satellite observations. Our 4D-Var system assimilates National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) Global Monitoring Division (GMD) surface and Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite observations jointly by fitting a bias correction scheme. This approach leads to the identification of a positive bias of maximum 5 ppb in MOPITT column-averaged CO mixing ratios in the remote Southern Hemisphere (SH). The 4D-Var system is used to estimate CO emissions over South America in the period 2006-2010 and to analyze the interannual variability (IAV) of these emissions. We infer robust, high spatial resolution CO emission estimates that show slightly smaller IAV due to fires compared to the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) prior emissions. South American dry season (August and September) biomass burning emission estimates amount to 60, 92, 42, 16 and 93 Tg CO/yr for 2006 to 2010, respectively. Moreover, CO emissions probably associated with pre-harvest burning of sugar cane plantations in São Paulo state are underestimated in current inventories by 50-100%. We conclude that climatic conditions (such as the widespread drought in 2010) seem the most likely cause for the IAV in biomass burning CO emissions. However, socio-economic factors (such as the growing global demand for soy, beef and sugar cane ethanol) and associated deforestation fires, are also likely as drivers for the IAV of CO emissions, but are difficult to link directly to CO emissions.

Modeling precipitation δ 18O variability in East Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum: temperature and amount effects across different timescales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wen, Xinyu; Liu, Zhengyu; Chen, Zhongxiao

Water isotopes in precipitation have played a key role in the reconstruction of past climate on millennial timescales and longer. But, for midlatitude regions like East Asia with complex terrain, the reliability behind the basic assumptions of the temperature effect and amount effect is based on modern observational data and still remains unclear for past climate. In the present work, we reexamine the two basic effects on seasonal, interannual, and millennial timescales in a set of time slice experiments for the period 22–0 ka using an isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Our study confirms the robustness of the temperaturemore » and amount effects on the seasonal cycle over China in the present climatic conditions, with the temperature effect dominating in northern China and the amount effect dominating in the far south of China but no distinct effect in the transition region of central China. However, our analysis shows that neither temperature nor amount effect is significantly dominant over China on millennial and interannual timescales, which is a challenge to those classic assumptions in past climate reconstruction. This work helps shed light on the interpretation of the proxy record of δ 18O from a modeling point of view.« less

Modeling precipitation δ 18O variability in East Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum: temperature and amount effects across different timescales

DOE PAGES

Wen, Xinyu; Liu, Zhengyu; Chen, Zhongxiao; ...

2016-11-06

Water isotopes in precipitation have played a key role in the reconstruction of past climate on millennial timescales and longer. But, for midlatitude regions like East Asia with complex terrain, the reliability behind the basic assumptions of the temperature effect and amount effect is based on modern observational data and still remains unclear for past climate. In the present work, we reexamine the two basic effects on seasonal, interannual, and millennial timescales in a set of time slice experiments for the period 22–0 ka using an isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Our study confirms the robustness of the temperaturemore » and amount effects on the seasonal cycle over China in the present climatic conditions, with the temperature effect dominating in northern China and the amount effect dominating in the far south of China but no distinct effect in the transition region of central China. However, our analysis shows that neither temperature nor amount effect is significantly dominant over China on millennial and interannual timescales, which is a challenge to those classic assumptions in past climate reconstruction. This work helps shed light on the interpretation of the proxy record of δ 18O from a modeling point of view.« less

Diagnosing GCM errors over West Africa using relaxation experiments. Part I: summer monsoon climatology and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Benjamin; Douville, Hervé

2011-10-01

The CNRM atmospheric general circulation model Arpege-Climat is relaxed towards atmospheric reanalyses outside the 10°S-32°N 30°W-50°E domain in order to disentangle the regional versus large-scale sources of climatological biases and interannual variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). On the one hand, the main climatological features of the monsoon, including the spatial distribution of summer precipitation, are only weakly improved by the nudging, thereby suggesting the regional origin of the Arpege-Climat biases. On the other hand, the nudging technique is relatively efficient to control the interannual variability of the WAM dynamics, though the impact on rainfall variability is less clear. Additional sensitivity experiments focusing on the strong 1994 summer monsoon suggest that the weak sensitivity of the model biases is not an artifact of the nudging design, but the evidence that regional physical processes are the main limiting factors for a realistic simulation of monsoon circulation and precipitation in the Arpege-Climat model. Sensitivity experiments to soil moisture boundary conditions are also conducted and highlight the relevance of land-atmosphere coupling for the amplification of precipitation biases. Nevertheless, the land surface hydrology is not the main explanation for the model errors that are rather due to deficiencies in the atmospheric physics. The intraseasonal timescale and the model internal variability are discussed in a companion paper.

Variability of the Labrador Sea Surface Eddy Kinetic Energy Observed by Altimeter From 1993 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weiwei; Yan, Xiao-Hai

2018-01-01

A merged along track altimeter data set is used to study the variability of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Labrador Sea from 1993 to 2012. The EKE near the west Greenland current (WGC) has strong interannual variability without long-term trend from 1993 to 2012. The propagation direction of the Irminger Rings (IRs) originating from the WGC can be inferred from the EKE derived from altimeter, and the southward propagation of the IRs varies interannually. The central Labrador Sea EKE increases significantly from 1993 to 2012. The central Labrador Sea temperature difference between the end and the beginning of the winter convections is defined as restratification index to measure the restratification strengths. The relation between the central Labrador Sea EKE and the restratification index shows that the enhanced eddy activity originating from the west of the central Labrador Sea may cool the central Labrador Sea significantly. The interannual variability of the WGC EKE is likely to be driven by the large scale Subpolar Gyre (SPG) circulation variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO also affects the central Labrador Sea EKE through its fingerprint in the local wind stress and surface heat flux. The NAO affects the WGC EKE by changing the SPG circulation strength, which will subsequently affect the WGC EKE through unknown physical processes.

The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohr, Karen I.; Molinari, John; Thorncroft, Chris D,

2010-01-01

The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from TRMM data as a cluster of pixels with an 85 GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area at least 64 km 2. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May Sep for 1998-2007 and in the western Pacific from May Nov 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences among the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Sub-setting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, length of sample period, and climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is wetter or drier than normal.

Mechanisms of Interannual Variations of the Meridional Overturning Circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cabanes, Cecile; Lee, Tong; Fu, Lee-Lueng

2008-01-01

The authors investigate the nature of the interannual variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the North Atlantic Ocean using an Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) assimilation product for the period of 1993-2003. The time series of the first empirical orthogonal function of the MOC is found to be correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, while the associated circulation anomalies correspond to cells extending over the full ocean depth. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the wind is responsible for most of this interannual variability, at least south of 40(deg)N. A dynamical decomposition of the meridional streamfunction allows a further look into the mechanisms. In particular, the contributions associated with 1) the Ekman flow and its depth-independent compensation, 2) the vertical shear flow, and 3) the barotropic gyre flowing over zonally varying topography are examined. Ekman processes are found to dominate the shorter time scales (1.5-3 yr), while for longer time scales (3-10 yr) the MOC variations associated with vertical shear flow are of greater importance. The latter is primarily caused by heaving of the pycnocline in the western subtropics associated with the stronger wind forcing. Finally, how these changes in the MOC affect the meridional heat transport (MHT) is examined. It is found that overall, Ekman processes explain a larger part of interannual variability (3-10 yr) for MHT (57%) than for the MOC (33%).

Changes in climate variability with reference to land quality and agriculture in Scotland.

PubMed

Brown, Iain; Castellazzi, Marie

2015-06-01

Classification and mapping of land capability represents an established format for summarising spatial information on land quality and land-use potential. By convention, this information incorporates bioclimatic constraints through the use of a long-term average. However, climate change means that land capability classification should also have a dynamic temporal component. Using an analysis based upon Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland, it is shown that this dynamism not only involves the long-term average but also shorter term spatiotemporal patterns, particularly through changes in interannual variability. Interannual and interdecadal variations occur both in the likelihood of land being in prime condition (top three capability class divisions) and in class volatility from year to year. These changing patterns are most apparent in relation to the west-east climatic gradient which is mainly a function of precipitation regime and soil moisture. Analysis is also extended into the future using climate results for the 2050s from a weather generator which show a complex interaction between climate interannual variability and different soil types for land quality. In some locations, variability of land capability is more likely to decrease because the variable climatic constraints are relaxed and the dominant constraint becomes intrinsic soil properties. Elsewhere, climatic constraints will continue to be influential. Changing climate variability has important implications for land-use planning and agricultural management because it modifies local risk profiles in combination with the current trend towards agricultural intensification and specialisation.

Arctic Ocean Freshwater: How Robust are Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jahn, A.; Aksenov, Y.; deCuevas, B. A.; deSteur, L.; Haekkinen, S.; Hansen, E.; Herbaut, C.; Houssais, M.-N.; Karcher, M.; Kauker, F.;

Dynamical relationship between wind speed magnitude and meridional temperature contrast: Application to an interannual oscillation in Venusian middle atmosphere GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, Masaru; Takahashi, Masaaki

2018-03-01

We derive simple dynamical relationships between wind speed magnitude and meridional temperature contrast. The relationship explains scatter plot distributions of time series of three variables (maximum zonal wind speed UMAX, meridional wind speed VMAX, and equator-pole temperature contrast dTMAX), which are obtained from a Venus general circulation model with equatorial Kelvin-wave forcing. Along with VMAX and dTMAX, UMAX likely increases with the phase velocity and amplitude of a forced wave. In the scatter diagram of UMAX versus dTMAX, points are plotted along a linear equation obtained from a thermal-wind relationship in the cloud layer. In the scatter diagram of VMAX versus UMAX, the apparent slope is somewhat steep in the high UMAX regime, compared with the low UMAX regime. The scatter plot distributions are qualitatively consistent with a quadratic equation obtained from a diagnostic equation of the stream function above the cloud top. The plotted points in the scatter diagrams form a linear cluster for weak wave forcing, whereas they form a small cluster for strong wave forcing. An interannual oscillation of the general circulation forming the linear cluster in the scatter diagram is apparent in the experiment of weak 5.5-day wave forcing. Although a pair of equatorial Kelvin and high-latitude Rossby waves with a same period (Kelvin-Rossby wave) produces equatorward heat and momentum fluxes in the region below 60 km, the equatorial wave does not contribute to the long-period oscillation. The interannual fluctuation of the high-latitude jet core leading to the time variation of UMAX is produced by growth and decay of a polar mixed Rossby-gravity wave with a 14-day period.

Linkages Between Terrestrial Carbon Uptake and Interannual Climate Variability over the Texas-northern Mexico High Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parazoo, N.; Barnes, E. A.; Worden, J.; Harper, A. B.; Bowman, K. W.; Frankenberg, C.

2014-12-01

The Texas-northern Mexico high plains experienced record drought conditions in 2011 during strong negative phases of ENSO and the NAO. Given predictions of increased frequency and severity of drought under projected climate change [e.g., Reichstein et al., 2013] and recent findings of CO2 growth rate sensitivity to interannual variability of carbon uptake in semi-arid ecosystems [Poulter et al., 2014], we investigate the response of carbon uptake in the Texas high plains to interannual climate variability with the goal of improved mechanistic understanding of climate-carbon cycle links. Specifically, we examine (1) observed tendencies in regional scale carbon uptake and soil moisture from 2010 to 2011 using satellite observations of gross primary production (GPP) (from plant fluorescence) from GOSAT and soil moisture from SMOS, and (2) the interannual relationship between GPP and ENSO & NAO variability using terrestrial biosphere simulations from 1950-2012. Observations reveal widespread decline of GPP in 2011 (0.42 +/- 0.04 Pg C yr-1) correlated with negative soil moisture tendencies (r = 0.85 +/- 0.21) which leads to corresponding declines in net carbon uptake and transpiration (according to model simulations). Further examination of model results over the period 1950-2012 indicates that negative GPP anomalies are linked systematically to winter and spring precipitation deficits associated with overlapping negative phases of winter NAO and ENSO, with increasing magnitude of negative anomalies in strong La Niña years. Furthermore, the strongest decline of GPP, carbon uptake, and transpiration on record occurred during the 2011 drought and were associated with extreme negative phases of ENSO and NAO, with 2011 being the only year since 1950 that both indices exceeded 1 σ standard deviation.

Inter-annual Variability in Tundra Phenology Captured with Digital Photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melendez, M.; Vargas, S. A.; Tweedie, C. E.

2012-12-01

The need to improve multi-scale phenological monitoring of arctic terrestrial ecosystems has been a persistent research challenge. Although there has been a range of advances in remote sensing capacities over the past decade, these present costly, and sometimes logistically challenging and technically demanding solutions for arctic terrestrial ecosystems. In this poster and undergraduate research project, we demonstrate how seasonal and inter-annual variability in landscape phenology can be derived for multiple tundra ecosystems using a low-cost and low-tech kite aerial photography (KAP) system that has been developed as a contribution to the US Arctic Observing Network. Seasonal landscape phenology was observed over the Networked Info-Mechanical Systems (NIMS) grids (2 x 50 meters) located in Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska using imagery acquired with KAP and analyzed for a range of greenness indices. Preliminary results showed that the 2G-RB greenness index correlated the best with NDVI values calculated from ground based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. 2012 had the highest 2G-RB greenness index values for both Barrow and Atqasuk sites, which correlated well with NDVI values acquired from ground-based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. Wet vegetation types showed the most interannual variability at the Atqasuk site based on the 2G-RB greenness index while in Barrow the moist vegetation types showed the most interannual variability. These results show that vegetation indices similar to those acquired from hyperspectral remote sensing platforms can be derived using low-cost and low-tech techniques. Further analysis using these same techniques is required in order to link relatively small scale vegetation dynamics measured with KAP with those documented at large scales using satellite imagery.

Interannual variability: a crucial component of space use at the territory level.

PubMed

Uboni, Alessia; Vucetich, John A; Stahler, Daniel R; Smith, Douglas W

2015-01-01

Interannual variability in space use and how that variation is influenced by density-dependent and density-independent factors are important processes in population ecology. Nevertheless, interannual variability has been neglected by the majority of space use studies. We assessed that variation for wolves living in 15 different packs within Yellowstone National Park during a 13-year period (1996-2008). We estimated utilization distributions to quantify the intensity of space use within each pack's territory each year in summer and winter. Then, we used the volume of intersection index (VI) to quantify the extent to which space use varied from year to year. This index accounts for both the area of overlap and differences in the intensity of use throughout a territory and ranges between 0 and 1. The mean VI index was 0.49, and varied considerably, with approximately 20% of observations (n = 230) being <0.3 or >0.7. In summer, 42% of the variation was attributable to differences between packs. These differences can be attributable to learned behaviors and had never been thought to have such an influence on space use. In winter, 34% of the variation in overlap between years was attributable to interannual differences in precipitation and pack size. This result reveals the strong influence of climate on predator space use and underlies the importance of understanding how climatic factors are going to affect predator populations in the occurrence of climate change. We did not find any significant association between overlap and variables representing density-dependent processes (elk and wolf densities) or intraspecific competition (ratio of wolves to elk). This last result poses a challenge to the classic view of predator-prey systems. On a small spatial scale, predator space use may be driven by factors other than prey distribution.

Seasonal and interannual variability of mesozooplankton in two contrasting estuaries of the Bay of Biscay: Relationship to environmental factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villate, Fernando; Iriarte, Arantza; Uriarte, Ibon; Sanchez, Iraide

2017-12-01

Seasonal and interannual variations of total mesozooplankton abundance and community variability were assessed for the period 1998-2005 at 3 salinity sites (35, 33 and 30) of the estuaries of Bilbao and Urdaibai (southeast Bay of Biscay). Spatial differences in mesozooplankton seasonality were recognized, both within and between estuaries, related to differences between sites in hydrodynamic features and anthropogenic nutrient enrichment that drive phytoplankton biomass seasonal cycles. The within estuary seasonal differences in mesozooplankton community were mainly shown through seaward time-advances in the seasonal peak from summer to spring along the salinity gradient, linked to differences in phytoplankton availability during the summer, in turn, related to nutrient availability. These differences were most marked in the estuary of Urdaibai, where zooplankton seasonal pattern at 35 salinity (high tidal flushing) resembled that of shelf waters, while at 35 of the estuary of Bilbao zooplankton showed an estuarine seasonal pattern due to the influence of the estuarine plume. Cirripede larvae contributed most to the mesozooplankton seasonal variability, except at the outer estuary of Bilbao, where cladocerans and fish eggs and larvae were the major contributors, and the inner estuary of Urdaibai, where gastropod larvae contributed most. Total mesozooplankton increased at 30 salinity of the estuary of Bilbao and 35 salinity of the estuary of Urdaibai. Interannual variability of mesozooplankton at the lowest salinity of the estuary of Bilbao was mainly accounted for by copepods due to the introduction of non-indigenous species during estuarine rehabilitation from intense pollution. However, bivalve larvae and gastropod larvae showed the highest contributions at 35 salinity of the estuary of Urdaibai. At the rest of sites, the opposite interannual trends of polychaete larvae and hydromedusae generally made the highest contribution.

Interannual Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun

2005-01-01

Rainfall variability on seasonal and interannual-to-interdecadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic is quantified using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The ITCZ measured by monthly rainfall between 15-37.5 deg W attains its peak as moving to the northernmost latitude (4-10 deg N) during July-September in which the most total rainfall is observed in the tropical Atlantic basin (17.5 deg S-22.5 deg N, 15 deg-37.5 deg W); the ITCZ becomes weakest during January-February with the least total rainfall as it moves to the south. In contrast, rainfall variability on interannual to interdecadal time scales shows a quite different seasonal preference. The most intense interannual variability occurs during March-May when the ITCZ tends to be near the equator and becomes weaker. Significant, negative correlations between the ITCZ strength and latitude anomalies are observed during boreal spring and early summer. The ITCZ strength and total rainfall amount in the tropical Atlantic basin are significantly modulated by the Pacific El Nino and the Atlantic equatorial mode (or Atlantic Nino) particularly during boreal spring and summer; whereas the impact of the Atlantic interhemispheric mode is considerably weaker. Regarding the anomalous latitudes of the ITCZ, the influence can come from both local, i.e., the Atlantic interhemispheric and equatorial modes, and remote forcings, i. e., El Nino; however, a direct impact of El Nino on the latitudes of the ITCZ can only be found during April-July, not in winter and early spring in which the warmest SST anomalies are usually observed in the equatorial Pacific.

Interannual Variability In the Atmospheric CO2 Rectification Over Boreal Forests Based On A Coupled Ecosystem-Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, B.; Chen, J. M.; Worthy, D.

2004-05-01

Ecosystem CO2 exchange and the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are correlated diurnally and seasonally. The simulation of this atmospheric rectifier effect is important in understanding the global CO2 distribution pattern. A 12-year (1990-1996, 1999-2003), continuous CO2 measurement record from Fraserdale, Ontario (located ~150 km north of Timmons), along with a coupled Vertical Diffusion Scheme (VDS) and ecosystem model (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator, BEPS), is used to investigate the interannual variability in this effect over a boreal forest region. The coupled model performed well in simulating CO2 vertical diffusion processes. Simulated annual atmospheric rectifier effects, (including seasonal and diurnal), quantified as the variation in the mean CO2 concentration from the surface to the top of the PBL, varied from 2.8 to 4.1 ppm, even though the modeled seasonal variations in the PBL depth were similar throughout the 12-year period. The differences in the interannual rectifier effect primarily resulted from changes in the biospheric CO2 uptake and heterotrophic respiration. Correlations in the year-to year variations of the CO2 rectification were found with mean annual air temperatures, simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (r2=0.5, 0.46, 0.42, respectively). A small increasing trend in the CO2 rectification was also observed. The year-to-year variation in the vertical distribution of the monthly mean CO2 mixing ratios (reflecting differences in the diurnal rectifier effect) was related to interannual climate variability, however, the seasonal rectifier effects were found to be more sensitive to climate variability than the diurnal rectifier effects.

A two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations.

PubMed

Wang, Xuhui; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Myneni, Ranga B; Cox, Peter; Heimann, Martin; Miller, John; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Tao; Yang, Hui; Chen, Anping

2014-02-13

Earth system models project that the tropical land carbon sink will decrease in size in response to an increase in warming and drought during this century, probably causing a positive climate feedback. But available data are too limited at present to test the predicted changes in the tropical carbon balance in response to climate change. Long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide data provide a global record that integrates the interannual variability of the global carbon balance. Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that most of this variability originates in the terrestrial biosphere. In particular, the year-to-year variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate (CGR) are thought to be the result of fluctuations in the carbon fluxes of tropical land areas. Recently, the response of CGR to tropical climate interannual variability was used to put a constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. Here we use the long-term CGR record from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to show that the sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature interannual variability has increased by a factor of 1.9 ± 0.3 in the past five decades. We find that this sensitivity was greater when tropical land regions experienced drier conditions. This suggests that the sensitivity of CGR to interannual temperature variations is regulated by moisture conditions, even though the direct correlation between CGR and tropical precipitation is weak. We also find that present terrestrial carbon cycle models do not capture the observed enhancement in CGR sensitivity in the past five decades. More realistic model predictions of future carbon cycle and climate feedbacks require a better understanding of the processes driving the response of tropical ecosystems to drought and warming.

European Wintertime Windstorms and its Links to Large-Scale Variability Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Befort, D. J.; Wild, S.; Walz, M. A.; Knight, J. R.; Lockwood, J. F.; Thornton, H. E.; Hermanson, L.; Bett, P.; Weisheimer, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

Winter storms associated with extreme wind speeds and heavy precipitation are the most costly natural hazard in several European countries. Improved understanding and seasonal forecast skill of winter storms will thus help society, policy-makers and (re-) insurance industry to be better prepared for such events. We firstly assess the ability to represent extra-tropical windstorms over the Northern Hemisphere of three seasonal forecast ensemble suites: ECMWF System3, ECMWF System4 and GloSea5. Our results show significant skill for inter-annual variability of windstorm frequency over parts of Europe in two of these forecast suites (ECMWF-S4 and GloSea5) indicating the potential use of current seasonal forecast systems. In a regression model we further derive windstorm variability using the forecasted NAO from the seasonal model suites thus estimating the suitability of the NAO as the only predictor. We find that the NAO as the main large-scale mode over Europe can explain some of the achieved skill and is therefore an important source of variability in the seasonal models. However, our results show that the regression model fails to reproduce the skill level of the directly forecast windstorm frequency over large areas of central Europe. This suggests that the seasonal models also capture other sources of variability/predictability of windstorms than the NAO. In order to investigate which other large-scale variability modes steer the interannual variability of windstorms we develop a statistical model using a Poisson GLM. We find that the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) in fact explains a larger amount of variability for Central Europe during the 20th century than the NAO. This statistical model is able to skilfully reproduce the interannual variability of windstorm frequency especially for the British Isles and Central Europe with correlations up to 0.8.

Modeling spatial-temporal dynamics of global wetlands: comprehensive evaluation of a new sub-grid TOPMODEL parameterization and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Zimmermann, N. E.; Poulter, B.

2015-11-01

Simulations of the spatial-temporal dynamics of wetlands are key to understanding the role of wetland biogeochemistry under past and future climate variability. Hydrologic inundation models, such as TOPMODEL, are based on a fundamental parameter known as the compound topographic index (CTI) and provide a computationally cost-efficient approach to simulate wetland dynamics at global scales. However, there remains large discrepancy in the implementations of TOPMODEL in land-surface models (LSMs) and thus their performance against observations. This study describes new improvements to TOPMODEL implementation and estimates of global wetland dynamics using the LPJ-wsl dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and quantifies uncertainties by comparing three digital elevation model products (HYDRO1k, GMTED, and HydroSHEDS) at different spatial resolution and accuracy on simulated inundation dynamics. In addition, we found that calibrating TOPMODEL with a benchmark wetland dataset can help to successfully delineate the seasonal and interannual variations of wetlands, as well as improve the spatial distribution of wetlands to be consistent with inventories. The HydroSHEDS DEM, using a river-basin scheme for aggregating the CTI, shows best accuracy for capturing the spatio-temporal dynamics of wetlands among the three DEM products. The estimate of global wetland potential/maximum is ∼ 10.3 Mkm2 (106 km2), with a mean annual maximum of ∼ 5.17 Mkm2 for 1980-2010. This study demonstrates the feasibility to capture spatial heterogeneity of inundation and to estimate seasonal and interannual variations in wetland by coupling a hydrological module in LSMs with appropriate benchmark datasets. It additionally highlights the importance of an adequate investigation of topographic indices for simulating global wetlands and shows the opportunity to converge wetland estimates across LSMs by identifying the uncertainty associated with existing wetland products.

Interannual growth dynamics of vegetation in the Kuparuk River watershed, Alaska based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, A.S.; Boynton, W.L.; Stow, D.A.; Douglas, David C.

2003-01-01

Interannual above-ground production patterns are characterized for three tundra ecosystems in the Kuparuk River watershed of Alaska using NOAA-AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. NDVI values integrated over each growing season (SINDVI) were used to represent seasonal production patterns between 1989 and 1996. Spatial differences in ecosystem production were expected to follow north-south climatic and soil gradients, while interannual differences in production were expected to vary with variations in seasonal precipitation and temperature. It was hypothesized that the increased vegetation growth in high latitudes between 1981 and 1991 previously reported would continue through the period of investigation for the study watershed. Zonal differences in vegetation production were confirmed but interannual variations did not covary with seasonal precipitation or temperature totals. A sharp reduction in the SINDVI in 1992 followed by a consistent increase up to 1996 led to a further hypothesis that the interannual variations in SINDVI were associated with variations in stratospheric optical depth. Using published stratospheric optical depth values derived from the SAGE and SAGE-II satellites, it is demonstrated that variations in these depths are likely the primary cause of SINDVI interannual variability.

The Effect of Alongcoast Advection on Pacific Northwest Shelf and Slope Water Properties in Relation to Upwelling Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Hally B.; Banas, Neil S.; MacCready, Parker

2018-01-01

The Northern California Current System experiences highly variable seasonal upwelling in addition to larger basin-scale variability, both of which can significantly affect its water chemistry. Salinity and temperature fields from a 7 year ROMS hindcast model of this region (43°N-50°N), along with extensive particle tracking, were used to study interannual variability in water properties over both the upper slope and the midshelf bottom. Variation in slope water properties was an order of magnitude smaller than on the shelf. Furthermore, the primary relationship between temperature and salinity anomalies in midshelf bottom water consisted of variation in density (cold/salty versus warm/fresh), nearly orthogonal to the anomalies along density levels (cold/fresh versus warm/salty) observed on the upper slope. These midshelf anomalies were well-explained (R2 = 0.6) by the combination of interannual variability in local and remote alongshore wind stress, and depth of the California Undercurrent (CUC) core. Lagrangian analysis of upper slope and midshelf bottom water shows that both are affected simultaneously by large-scale alongcoast advection of water through the northern and southern boundaries. The amplitude of anomalies in bottom oxygen and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) on the shelf associated with upwelling variability are larger than those associated with typical variation in alongcoast advection, and are comparable to observed anomalies in this region. However, a large northern intrusion event in 2004 illustrates that particular, large-scale alongcoast advection anomalies can be just as effective as upwelling variability in changing shelf water properties on the interannual scale.

The Effect of Alongcoast Advection on Pacific Northwest Shelf and Slope Water Properties in Relation to Upwelling Variability

PubMed Central

Banas, Neil S.; MacCready, Parker

2018-01-01

Abstract The Northern California Current System experiences highly variable seasonal upwelling in addition to larger basin‐scale variability, both of which can significantly affect its water chemistry. Salinity and temperature fields from a 7 year ROMS hindcast model of this region (43°N–50°N), along with extensive particle tracking, were used to study interannual variability in water properties over both the upper slope and the midshelf bottom. Variation in slope water properties was an order of magnitude smaller than on the shelf. Furthermore, the primary relationship between temperature and salinity anomalies in midshelf bottom water consisted of variation in density (cold/salty versus warm/fresh), nearly orthogonal to the anomalies along density levels (cold/fresh versus warm/salty) observed on the upper slope. These midshelf anomalies were well‐explained (R 2 = 0.6) by the combination of interannual variability in local and remote alongshore wind stress, and depth of the California Undercurrent (CUC) core. Lagrangian analysis of upper slope and midshelf bottom water shows that both are affected simultaneously by large‐scale alongcoast advection of water through the northern and southern boundaries. The amplitude of anomalies in bottom oxygen and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) on the shelf associated with upwelling variability are larger than those associated with typical variation in alongcoast advection, and are comparable to observed anomalies in this region. However, a large northern intrusion event in 2004 illustrates that particular, large‐scale alongcoast advection anomalies can be just as effective as upwelling variability in changing shelf water properties on the interannual scale. PMID:29938149

Evidence for a possible modern and mid-Holocene solar influence on climate from Lake Titicaca, South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theissen, K. M.; Dunbar, R. B.

2005-12-01

In tropical regions, there are few paleoclimate archives with the necessary resolution to investigate climate variability at interannual-to-decadal timescales prior to the onset of the instrumental record. Interannual variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented in the instrumental record and the importance of the precessional forcing of millennial variability has been established in studies of tropical paleoclimate records. In contrast, decade-to-century variability is still poorly understood. Here, we examine interannual to decadal variability in the northern Altiplano of South America using digital image analysis of a floating interval of varved sediments of middle Holocene age (~6160-6310 yr BP) from Lake Titicaca. Multi-taper method (MTM) and wavelet frequency-domain analyses were performed on a time series generated from a gray-scaled digital image of the mm-thick laminations. Our results indicate significant power at a decadal periodicity (10-12 years) associated with the Schwabe cycle of solar activity. Frequency-domain analysis also indicates power at 2-2.5 year periodicities associated with ENSO. Similarly, spectral analysis of a 75 year instrumental record of Titicaca lake level shows significant power at both solar and ENSO periodicities. Although both of the examined records are short, our results imply that during both the mid-Holocene and modern times, solar and ENSO variability may have contributed to high frequency climate fluctuations over the northern Altiplano. We suspect that solar influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation features may account for the decadal variability in the mid-Holocene and present-day water balance of the Altiplano.

Extremes in East African hydroclimate and links to Indo-Pacific variability on interannual to decadal timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Kulüke, Marco; Tierney, Jessica E.

2018-04-01

East African hydroclimate exhibits considerable variability across a range of timescales, with implications for its population that depends on the region's two rainy seasons. Recent work demonstrated that current state-of-the-art climate models consistently underestimate the long rains in boreal spring over the Horn of Africa while overestimating the short rains in autumn. This inability to represent the seasonal cycle makes it problematic for climate models to project changes in East African precipitation. Here we consider whether this bias also has implications for understanding interannual and decadal variability in the East African long and short rains. Using a consistent framework with an unforced multi-century global coupled climate model simulation, the role of Indo-Pacific variability for East African rainfall is compared across timescales and related to observations. The dominant driver of East African rainfall anomalies critically depends on the timescale under consideration: Interannual variations in East African hydroclimate coincide with significant sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the Indo-Pacific, including those associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eastern Pacific, and are linked to changes in the Walker circulation, regional winds and vertical velocities over East Africa. Prolonged drought/pluvial periods in contrast exhibit anomalous SST predominantly in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) region, while eastern Pacific anomalies are insignificant. We assessed dominant frequencies in Indo-Pacific SST and found the eastern equatorial Pacific dominated by higher-frequency variability in the ENSO band, while the tropical Indian Ocean and IPWP exhibit lower-frequency variability beyond 10 years. This is consistent with the different contribution to regional precipitation anomalies for the eastern Pacific versus Indian Ocean and IPWP on interannual and decadal timescales, respectively. In the model, the dominant low-frequency signal seen in the observations in the Indo-Pacific is not well-represented as it instead exhibits overly strong variability on subdecadal timescales. The overly strong ENSO-teleconnection likely contributes to the overestimated role of the short rains in the seasonal cycle in the model compared to observations.

Storm-tracks interannual variability and large-scale climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

In this study we focus on the interannual variability and observed changes in northern hemisphere mid-latitude storm-tracks and relate them to large scale atmospheric circulation variability modes. Extratropical storminess, cyclones dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of storm characteristics and historical trends presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al. 1999) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows as minima in SLP fields, fulfilling a set of conditions regarding the central pressure and the pressure gradient, is applied to the northern hemisphere 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000 hPa from the 20th Century Reanalyses (20CRv2) project and from reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA Interim reanalyses. First, we assess the interannual variability and cyclone frequency trends for each of the datasets, for the 20th century and for the period between 1958 and 2002 using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 data. Results show that winter variability of storm paths, cyclone frequency and travel times is in agreement with the reported variability in a number of large-scale climate patterns (including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic Pattern and the Scandinavian Pattern). In addition, three storm-track databases are built spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1979 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions. This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis and main cyclone characteristics over the northern hemisphere. Trigo IF., TD Davies, GR Bigg (1999) Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region. J. Climate 12: 1685-1696. Trigo IF (2006) Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Clim. Dyn. 26: 127-143.

Spatial-frequency variability of the eddy kinetic energy in the South Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cecilio, C. M.; Gherardi, D. F.; Souza, R.; Correa-Ramirez, M.

2013-05-01

In the South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) part of the inter-oceanic flow is accomplished through the issuance of anticyclonic eddies by the Agulhas Retroflection. This region, known as Agulhas Leakage (AL), is responsible by the intermittent shedding of eddies in the SAO. The propagation of these eddies into the SAO induces wave processes that allows the interaction between modes of variability of different basins, ranging from high to low frequency. Modelling studies suggests that the Indian-Atlantic inter-ocean exchange is strongly related to the structure of the wind field, in particular with the position of the maximum Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. This study aims to investigate the variations of the large-scale and regional mesoscale eddy field over the SAO using a frequency domain technique, Multiple Taper Method with Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD). The MTM-SVD approach is applied to examine the individual and joint spatiotemporal variability modes of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) and winds stress. The EKE is estimated from geostrophic velocity anomalies data distributed by Aviso and winds stress from winds dataset of Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) project from PO.DAAC. The impact of the AL in the SAO, was assessed first for the entire region and subsequently applied in the regions of higher mesoscale activity, which are the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC), the AL, and the Brazilian Current (BC) region. The results of local fractional variance (LFV) of EKE obtained by the MTM-SVD method show a strong significant annual variability in SAO and BC region while in BMC and in AL this frequency is weaker. In the most energetic mesoscale activity regions (BMC and AL) the pattern of variability is distinct. In the BMC region the interannual variability is dominated while in the AL region the most part of variability is associated by high frequency. The joint LFV spectrum of wind and EKE show an out-of-phase relationship between the AL region and BMC region in the interannual frequencies (3 to 5 years). The dominant frequencies can be seen in 1,5 to 3 years period band and in the intrasazonal frequencies, 0,3 to 0,5 years. The results suggests that the EKE variability patterns are different in the SAO wich might be related to the influence of eddies from AL.

Flows, droughts, and aliens: factors affecting the fish assemblage in a Sierra Nevada, California, stream.

PubMed

Kiernan, Joseph D; Moyle, Peter B

2012-06-01

The fishes of Martis Creek, in the Sierra Nevada of California (USA), were sampled at four sites annually over 30 years, 1979-2008. This long-term data set was used to examine (1) the persistence and stability of the Martis Creek fish assemblage in the face of environmental stochasticity; (2) whether native and alien fishes responded differently to a natural hydrologic regime (e.g., timing and magnitude of high and low flows); and (3) the importance of various hydrologic and physical habitat variables in explaining the abundances of native and alien fish species through time. Our results showed that fish assemblages were persistent at all sample sites, but individual species exhibited marked interannual variability in density, biomass, and relative abundance. The density and biomass of native fishes generally declined over the period of study, whereas most alien species showed no significant long-term trends. Only alien rainbow trout increased in both density and biomass at all sites over time. Redundancy analysis identified three hydrologic variables (annual 7-day minimum discharge, maximum winter discharge, and number of distinct winter floods) and two habitat variables (percentage of pool habitat and percentage of gravel substrate) that each explained a significant portion of the annual variation in fish assemblage structure. For alien taxa, their proportional contribution to the total fish assemblage was inversely related to mean annual streamflow, one-day maximum discharge in both winter and spring, and the frequency of springtime floods. Results of this study highlight the need for continuous annual monitoring of streams with highly variable flow regimes to evaluate shifts in fish community structure. Apparent successes or failures in stream management may appear differently depending on the time series of available data.

Mean motions and tidal and two-day structure and variability in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Hawaii

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fritts, David C.; Isler, Joseph R.

1994-01-01

An overview of the motion field and an analysis of the tidal and 2-day wave motions observed in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over the central Pacific from 1 October 1990 through 19 August 1992 is presented. Characteristics and interactions of motions at lower and higher frequencies will be addressed elsewhere. Wind measurements were obtained with an MF radar operating on Kauai, Hawaii (22 deg N, 160 deg W), using the partial reflection drift technique. Results presented in this paper reveal a zonal mean motion reflecting the mesopause semiannual oscillation (MSAO) observed at more equatorial latitudes from approximately January to July, coinciding with the period during which the MSAO and the annual cycle of the zonal mean wind at higher latitudes are in phase. Eastward and westward maxima are 55 m/s below 80 km and 45 m/s near 85 km during the first year, with maxima of 57 and 53 m/s during the second year and evidence of substantial interannual variability. The second MSAO cycle is greatly suppressed in the Hawaiian data due to the reversal of the correlation between this and the annual cycle at higher latitudes from approximately July to December and because the second cycle is weaker climatologically at equatorial latitudes. Significant planetary wave activity is observed during periods of mean eastward motions, and tidal and 2-day motions are found to be large and variable. The maximum diurnal tides were observed during October and November 1990, and February, March, April, July, and August of 1991 and 1992. Maximum 2-day amplitudes occurred during February, July, and August of 1991 and 1992. Significantly, the large diurnal amplitude maximum noted during November 1990 failed to appear the following year, while the February 2-day amplitude maximum declined somewhat in 1992.

Interannual Variability of Sea Level in Tropical Pacific during 1993-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Greatbatch, R. J.; Claus, M.

2016-12-01

More than 40 years ago, sea level variability in the tropical Pacific was being studied using linear shallow water models driven by observed estimates of the surface wind stress. At that time, the only available sea level data was from the sparse tide gauge record. However, with the advent of satellite data, there has been a revolution in the available data coverage for sea level. Here, a linear model, consisting of the first five baroclinic normal modes, and driven by ERA-Interim monthly wind stress anomalies, is used to investigate interannual variability in tropical Pacific sea level as seen in satellite altimeter data. The model output is fitted to the altimeter data along the equator, in order to derive the vertical profile for the wind forcing, and showing that a signature from modes higher than mode six cannot be extracted from the altimeter data. It is shown that the model has considerable skill at capturing interannual sea level variability both on and off the equator. The correlation between modelled and satellite-derived sea level data exceeds 0.8 over a wide range of longitudes along the equator and readily captures the observed ENSO events. Overall, the combination of the first, second and third and fifth modes can provide a robust estimate of the interannual sea level variability, the second mode being the most dominant. A remarkable feature of both the model and the altimeter data is the presence of a pivot point in the western Pacific on the equator. We show that the westward displacement of the pivot point from the centre of the basin is partly a signature of the recharge/discharge mechanism but is also strongly influenced by the fact that most of the wind stress variance along the equator is found in the western part of the basin. We also show that the Sverdrup transport plays no role in the recharge/discharge mechanism in our model.

Interannual variability of temperature in the UTLS region over Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basin based on COSMIC GNSS RO data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khandu; Awange, Joseph L.; Forootan, Ehsan

2016-04-01

Poor reliability of radiosonde records across South Asia imposes serious challenges in understanding the structure of upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric (UTLS) region. The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) mission launched in April 2006 has overcome many observational limitations inherent in conventional atmospheric sounding instruments. This study examines the interannual variability of UTLS temperature over the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin in South Asia using monthly averaged COSMIC radio occultation (RO) data, together with two global reanalyses. Comparisons between August 2006 and December 2013 indicate that MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research Application) and ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis) are warmer than COSMIC RO data by 2 °C between 200 and 50 hPa levels. These warm biases with respect to COSMIC RO data are found to be consistent over time. The UTLS temperature show considerable interannual variability from 2006 to 2013 in addition to warming (cooling) trends in the troposphere (stratosphere). The cold (warm) anomalies in the upper troposphere (tropopause region) are found to be associated with warm ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) phase, while quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is negatively (positively) correlated with temperature anomalies at 70 hPa (50 hPa) level. PCA (principal component analysis) decomposition of tropopause temperatures and heights over the basin indicate that ENSO accounts for 73 % of the interannual (non-seasonal) variability with a correlation of 0.77 with Niño3.4 index whereas the QBO explains about 10 % of the variability. The largest tropopause anomaly associated with ENSO occurs during the winter, when ENSO reaches its peak. The tropopause temperature (height) increased (decreased) by about 1.5 °C (300 m) during the last major El Niño event of 2009/2010. In general, we find decreasing (increasing) trend in tropopause temperature (height) between 2006 and 2013.

ENSO Related Inter-Annual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel

2018-01-01

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning data were averaged into mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases and compared to model reanalysis data. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases

Interannual Variability of the Bimodal Distribution of Summertime Rainfall Over Central America and Tropical Storm Activity in the Far-Eastern Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The summer climate of southern Mexico and Central America is characterized by a mid summer drought (MSD), where rainfall is reduced by 40% in July as compared to June and September. A mid-summer reduction in the climatological number of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones has also been noted. Little is understood about the climatology and interannual variability of these minima. The present study uses a novel approach to quantify the bimodal distribution of summertime rainfall for the globe and finds that this feature of the annual cycle is most extreme over Pan America and adjacent oceans. One dominant interannual signal in this region occurs the summer before a strong winter El Nino/Southern Oscillation ENSO. Before El Nino events the region is dry, the MSD is strong and centered over the ocean, and the mid-summer minimum in tropical cyclone frequency is most pronounced. This is significantly different from Neutral cases (non-El Nino and non-La Nina) when the MSD is weak and positioned over the land bridge. The MSD is highly variable for La Nina years, and there is not an obvious mid-summer minimum in the number of tropical cyclones.

The role of C3 and C4 grasses to interannual variability in remotely sensed ecosystem performance over the US Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ricotta, C.; Reed, Bradley C.; Tieszen, Larry L.

2003-01-01

Time integrated normalized difference vegetation index (ΣNDVI) derived from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) multi-temporal imagery over a 10-year period (1989–1998) was used as a surrogate for primary production to investigate the impact of interannual climate variability on grassland performance for central and northern US Great Plains. First, the contribution of C3 and C4 species abundance to the major grassland ecosystems of the US Great Plains is described. Next, the relation between mean ΣNDVI and the ΣNDVI coefficient of variation (CV ΣNDVI) used as a proxy for interannual climate variability is analysed. Results suggest that the differences in the long-term climatic control over ecosystem performance approximately coincide with changes between C3- and C4-dominant grassland classes. Variation in remotely sensed net primary production over time is higher for the southern and western plains grasslands (primarily C4 grasslands), whereas the C3-dominated classes in the northern and eastern portion of the US Great Plains, generally show lower CV ΣNDVI values.

Ecophysiological and phenological strategies in seasonally-dry ecosystems: an ecohydrological approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, Giulia; Manzoni, Stefano; Thompson, Sally; Molini, Annalisa; Porporato, Amilcare

2015-04-01

Seasonally-dry climates are particularly challenging for vegetation, as they are characterized by prolonged dry periods and often marked inter-annual variability. During the dry season plants face predictable physiological stress due to lack of water, whereas the inter-annual variability in rainfall timing and amounts requires plants to develop flexible adaptation strategies. The variety of strategies observed across seasonally-dry (Mediterranean and tropical) ecosystems is indeed wide - ranging from near-isohydric species that adjust stomatal conductance to avoid drought, to anisohydric species that maintain gas exchange during the dry season. A suite of phenological strategies are hypothesized to be associated to ecophysiological strategies. Here we synthetize current knowledge on ecophysiological and phenological adaptations through a comprehensive ecohydrological model linking a soil water balance to a vegetation carbon balance. Climatic regimes are found to select for different phenological strategies that maximize the long-term plant carbon uptake. Inter-annual variability of the duration of the wet season allows coexistence of different drought-deciduous strategies. In contrast, short dry seasons or access to groundwater favour evergreen species. Climatic changes causing more intermittent rainfall and/or shorter wet seasons are predicted to favour drought-deciduous species with opportunistic water use.

Interannual Variability of Water Ice Clouds at Gale Crater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, G.; Giuranna, M.; McConnochie, T. H.; Tamppari, L.; Smith, M. D.; Vicente-Retortillo, Á.; Renno, N. O.; Kloos, J. L.; Moores, J. E.; Guzewich, S.

2017-12-01

The Aphelion Cloud Belt (ACB) is a water ice cloud band that encircles the planet longitudinally at latitudes ranging from about 10°S to 30°N during the northern spring and summer (aphelion season). The ACB has been studied extensively using satellite observations over the last two decades [1], showing little interannual variability from MY 24 to 34. The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission has completed more than 1750 sols of measurements at Gale crater (4.5°S), from Ls 155° in MY 31 to Ls 33° in MY 34. Interestingly, MSL results from various instruments indicate that the ACB produces significant interannual variability at Gale crater during the aphelion season. In particular, near-noon retrievals of water ice opacity by the ChemCam instrument indicate an increase in water ice opacity up to 50% from MY 32 to 33 [2], further supported by analysis of UV [3] and ground temperature [4] data taken by the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station during MY 32 and 33. A weaker ( 5%) increase in water ice opacity in MY 33 relative to MY 32 was also observed from images taken during afternoon hours by the rover's Navigation Cameras [5]. We are analyzing simultaneous and noncontemporary satellite observations at the location of Gale made by the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer [6], Mars Climate Sounder, Thermal Emission Imaging System and Thermal Emission Spectrometer to shed light on the nature of the interannual variability of the ACB at Gale, and to locally understand the relation between the ACB and the water cycle. References:[1] Smith, M.D. (2008), Spacecraft observations of the martian atmosphere, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 36. [2] McConnochie, T. H., et al. (2017), Retrieval of Water Vapor Column Abundance and Aerosol Properties from ChemCam Passive Sky Spectroscopy, Icarus (submitted). [3] Vicente-Retortillo, Á., et al. (2017), Determination of dust aerosol particle size at Gale Crater using REMS UVS and Mastcam measurements, GRL, 44. [4] Vasavada, A.R. et al. (2017), Thermophysical properties along Curiosity's traverse in Gale crater, Mars, Icarus 284. [5] Kloos, J. L., and J. E. Moores (2017), Inter-Annual and Diurnal Variability in Clouds Observed from MSL Over Two Martian Years, LPSC, 48. [6] Giuranna, M. et al. (2016), 12 years of atmospheric monitoring by the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer onboard Mars Express, EGU.

Temporal and spatial characteristics of annual and seasonal rainfall in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngongondo, Cosmo; Xu, Chong-Yu; Gottschalk, Lars; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Alemaw, Berhanu

2010-05-01

An understanding of the temporal and spatial characteristics of rainfall is central to water resources planning and management. However, such information is often limited in many developing countries like Malawi. In an effort to bridge the information gap, this study examined the temporal and spatial charecteristics of rainfall in Malawi. Rainfall readings from 42 stations across Malawi from 1960 to 2006 were analysed at monthly, annual and seasonal scales. The Malawian rainfall season lasts from November to April. The data were firstly subjected to quality checks through the cumulative deviations test and the Standard Normal Homogeinity Test (SNHT). Monthly distribution in a typical year, called heterogeneity, was investigated using the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI). Further, normalized precipitation anomaly series of annual rainfall series (AR) and the PCI (APCI) were used to test for interannual rainfall variability. Spatial variability was characterised by fitting the Spatial Correlation function (SCF). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistic was used to investigate the temporal trends of the various rainfall variables. The results showed that 40 of the stations passed both data quality tests. For the two stations that failed, the data were adjusted using nearby stations. Annual and seasonal rainfall were found to be characterised by high spatial variation. The country mean annual rainfall was 1095 mm with mean interannual variability of 26%. The highland areas to the north and southeast of the country exhibited the highest rainfall and lowest interannual variability. Lowest rainfall coupled with high interannual variability was found in the Lower Shire basin, in the southern part of Malawi. This simillarity is the pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall should be expected because all stations had over 90% of their observed annual rainfall in the six month period between November and April. Monthly rainfall was found to be highly variable both temporally and spatially. None of the stations have stable monthly rainfall regimes (mean PCI of less than 10). Stations with the highest mean rainfall were found to have a lower interannual variability. The rainfall stations showed low spatial correlations for annual, monthly as well as seasonal timescales indicating that the data may not be suitable for spatial interpolation. However, some structure (i.e. lower correlation with distance) could be observed when aggregating the data at 50 mile intervals. The annual and seasonal rainfall series were dominated by negative trends. The spatial distribution of the trends can be described as heterogeneous, although most of the stations in the southern region have negative trends. At the monthly timescale, 37 of the stations show a negative trend with four of the stations, all in the south, showing significant negative trends. On the other hand, only 5 stations show positive trends with only one significant trend in the south. Keywords: Malawi, rainfall trends, spatial variation

Interannual variations of light-absorbing particles in snow on Arctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doherty, Sarah J.; Steele, Michael; Rigor, Ignatius; Warren, Stephen G.

2015-11-01

Samples of snow on sea ice were collected in springtime of the 6 years 2008-2013 in the region between Greenland, Ellesmere Island, and the North Pole (82°N -89°N, 0°W-100°W). The meltwater was passed through filters, whose spectral absorption was then measured to determine the separate contributions by black carbon (BC) and other light-absorbing impurities. The median mixing ratio of BC across all years' samples was 4 ± 3 ng g-1, and the median fraction of absorption due to non-BC absorbers was 36 ± 11%. Variances represent both spatial and interannual variability; there was no interannual trend in either variable. The absorption Ångström exponent, however, decreased with latitude, suggesting a transition from dominance by biomass-burning sources in the south to an increased influence by fossil-fuel-burning sources in the north, consistent with earlier measurements of snow in Svalbard and at the North Pole.

The seasonal march of the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean and its El Niño variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasparin, Florent; Roemmich, Dean

2017-08-01

Based on two modern data sets, the climatological seasonal march of the upper-ocean is examined in the equatorial Pacific for the period 2004-2014, because of its large contribution to the total variance, its relationship to El Niño, and its unique equatorial wave phenomena. Argo provides a broadscale view of the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean based on subsurface temperature and salinity measurements for the period 2004-2015, and satellite altimetry provides synoptic observations of the sea surface height (SSH) for the period 1993-2015. Using either 11-year (1993-2003/2004-2014) time-series for averaging, the seasonal Rossby waves stands out clearly and eastward intraseasonal Kelvin wave propagation is strong enough in individual years to leave residuals in the 11-year averages, particularly but not exclusively, during El Niño onset years. The agreement of altimetric SSH minus Argo steric height (SH) residuals with GRACE ocean mass estimates confirms the scale-matching of in situ variability with that of satellite observations. Surface layer and subsurface thermohaline variations are both important in determining SH and SSH basin-wide patterns. The SH/SSH October-November maximum in the central-eastern Pacific is primarily due to a downward deflection of the thermocline (∼20 m), causing a warm subsurface anomaly (>1 °C), in response to the phasing of downwelling intraseasonal Kelvin and seasonal Rossby waves. Compared with the climatology, the stronger October-November maximum in the 2004-2014 El Niño composites is due to higher intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability. Associated with these equatorial wave patterns along the thermocline, the western warm/fresh pool waters move zonally at interannual timescales through zonal wind stress and pressure gradient fluctuations, and cause substantial fresh (up to 0.6 psu) and warm (∼1 °C higher than the climatology) anomalies in the western-central Pacific surface-layer during the El Niño onset year, and of the opposite sign during the termination year. These El Niño-related patterns are then analyzed focusing on the case of the onset of the strong 2015/2016 episode, and are seen to be around two times larger than that in the 2004-2014 El Niño composites. The present work exploits the capabilities of Argo and altimetry to update and improve the description of the physical state of the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean, and provides a benchmark for assessing the accuracy of models in representing equatorial Pacific variability.

Impact of the biomass burning on methane variability during dry years in the Amazon measured from an aircraft and the AIRS sensor.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Igor Oliveira; Andreoli, Rita Valéria; Kayano, Mary Toshie; de Sousa, Thaiane Rodrigues; Medeiros, Adan Sady; Guimarães, Patrícia Costa; Barbosa, Cybelli G G; Godoi, Ricardo H M; Martin, Scot T; de Souza, Rodrigo Augusto Ferreira

2018-05-15

The present study examines the spatiotemporal variability and interrelations of the atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), carbon monoxide (CO) and biomass burning (BB) outbreaks retrieved from satellite data over the Amazon region during the 2003-2012 period. In the climatological context, we found consistent seasonal cycles of BB outbreaks and CO in the Amazon, both variables showing a peak during the dry season. The dominant CO variability mode features the largest positive loadings in the southern Amazon, and describes the interannual CO variations related to BB outbreaks along the deforestation arc during the dry season. In line with CO variability and BB outbreaks, the results show strong correspondence with the spatiotemporal variability of CH 4 in the southern Amazon during years of intense drought. Indeed, the areas with the largest positive CH 4 anomalies in southern Amazon overlap the areas with high BB outbreaks and positive CO anomalies. The analyses also showed that high (low) BB outbreaks in the southern Amazon occur during dry (wet) years. In consequence, the interannual climate variability modulates the BB outbreaks in the southern Amazon, which in turn have considerable impacts on CO and CH 4 interannual variability in the region. Therefore, the BB outbreaks might play a major role in modulating the CH 4 and CO variations, at least in the southern Amazon. This study also provides a comparison between the estimate of satellite and aircraft measurements for the CH 4 over the southern Amazon, which indicates relatively small differences from the aircraft measurements in the lower troposphere, with errors ranging from 0.18% to 1.76%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Observed variability in the upper layers at the Equator, 90°E in the Indian Ocean during 2001-2008, 1: zonal currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, R. R.; Horii, T.; Masumoto, Y.; Mizuno, K.

2017-08-01

The observed variability of zonal currents (ZC) at the Equator, 90°E shows a strong seasonal cycle in the near-surface 40-350 m water column with periodic east-west reversals most pronounced at semiannual frequency. Superposed on this, a strong intraseasonal variability of 30-90 day periodicity is also prominently seen in the near-surface layer (40-80 m) almost throughout the year with the only exception of February-March. An eastward flowing equatorial undercurrent (EUC) is present in the depth range of 80-160 m during March-April and October-November. The observed intraseasonal variability in the near-surface layer is primarily determined by the equatorial zonal westerly wind bursts (WWBs) through local frictional coupling between the zonal flow in the surface layer and surface zonal winds and shows large interannual variability. The eastward flowing EUC maintained by the ZPG set up by the east-west slope of the thermocline remotely controlled by the zonal wind (ZW) and zonally propagating wave fields also shows significant interannual variability. This observed variability on interannual time scales appears to be controlled by the corresponding variability in the alongshore winds off the Somalia coast during the preceding boreal winter, the ZW field along the equator, and the associated zonally propagating Kelvin and Rossby waves. The salinity induced vertical stratification observed in the near-surface layer through barrier layer thickness (BLT) effects also shows a significant influence on the ZC field on intraseasonal time scale. Interestingly, among all the 8 years (2001-2008), relatively weaker annual cycle is seen in both ZC in the 40-350 m water column and boreal spring sea surface temperature (SST) only during 2001 and 2008 along the equator caused through propagating wave dynamics.

Inhibition of microbial biofuel production in drought-stressed switchgrass hydrolysate

DOE PAGES

Ong, Rebecca Garlock; Higbee, Alan; Bottoms, Scott; ...

2016-11-08

Here, interannual variability in precipitation, particularly drought, can affect lignocellulosic crop biomass yields and composition, and is expected to increase biofuel yield variability. However, the effect of precipitation on downstream fermentation processes has never been directly characterized. In order to investigate the impact of interannual climate variability on biofuel production, corn stover and switchgrass were collected during 3 years with significantly different precipitation profiles, representing a major drought year (2012) and 2 years with average precipitation for the entire season (2010 and 2013). All feedstocks were AFEX (ammonia fiber expansion)-pretreated, enzymatically hydrolyzed, and the hydrolysates separately fermented using xylose-utilizing strainsmore » of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Zymomonas mobilis. As a result, a chemical genomics approach was also used to evaluate the growth of yeast mutants in the hydrolysates.« less

Can GRACE Explain Some of the Main Interannual Polar Motion Signatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E. Y.

2016-12-01

GRACE has provided a series of monthly solutions for water mass transport that now span a 14-year period. A natural question to ask is how much of this mass transport information might be used to reconstruct, theoretically, the non-tidal and non-Chandlerian polar motion at interannual time scales. Reconstruction of the pole position at interannual time scales since 2002 has been performed by Chen et al. (2013, GRL) and Adhikari and Ivins (2016, Science Advances). (The main feature of polar motion that has been evolving since the mid 1990's is the increasing dominance of Greenland ice mass loss.) Here we discuss this reconstruction and the level of error that occurs because of missing information about the spherical harmonic degree 1 and 2 terms and the lack of terms associated with angular momentum transfer in the Louiville equations. Using GRACE observations and complementary solutions of self-attraction/loading problem on an elastically compressible rotating earth, we show that ice mass losses from polar ice sheets, and when combined with changes in continental hydrology, explain nearly the entire amplitude (83±23%) and mean directional shift (within 5.9±7.6°) of recently observed eastward polar motion. We also show that decadal scale pole variations are directly linked to global changes in continental hydrology. The energy sources for such motions are likely to be associated with decadal scale ocean and atmospheric oscillations that also drive 20th century continental wet-dry variability. Interannual variability in pole position, therefore, offers a tool for assessing past stability of our climate, and for the future, now faced with an increased intensity in the water cycle and more vulnerable to ice sheet instability. Figure caption: Observed and reconstructed mean annual pole positions with respect to the 2003-2015 mean position. Blue error band is associated with the reconstructed solution; red signifies additional errors that are related to uncertainty in the long-term linear trend. Notice the interannual variability during the GRACE period.

Global linkages between teleconnection patterns and the terrestrial biosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahlin, Kyla M.; Ault, Toby R.

2018-07-01

Interannual variability in the global carbon cycle is largely due to variations in carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems, yet linkages between climate variability and variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle are not well understood at the global scale. Using a 30-year satellite record of semi-monthly leaf area index (LAI), we show that four modes of climate variability - El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic Meridional Mode, and the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode - strongly impact interannual vegetation growth patterns, with 68% of the land surface impacted by at least one of these teleconnection patterns, yet the spatial distribution of these impacts is heterogeneous. Considering the patterns' impacts by biome, none has an exclusively positive or negative relationship with LAI. Our findings imply that future changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of teleconnection patterns will lead to diverse changes to the terrestrial biosphere and the global carbon cycle.

Tropical Forcing of the Summer East Atlantic Pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wulff, C. Ole; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Gollan, Gereon; Hansen, Felicitas

2017-11-01

The Summer East Atlantic (SEA) mode is the second dominant mode of summer low-frequency variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Using reanalysis data, we show that SEA-related circulation anomalies significantly influence temperatures and precipitation over Europe. We present evidence that part of the interannual SEA variability is forced by diabatic heating anomalies of opposing signs in the tropical Pacific and Caribbean that induce an extratropical Rossby wave train. This precipitation dipole is related to SST anomalies characteristic of the developing El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases. Seasonal hindcast experiments forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exhibit skill at capturing the interannual SEA variability corroborating the proposed mechanism and highlighting the possibility for improved prediction of boreal summer variability. Our results indicate that tropical forcing of the SEA likely played a role in the dynamics of the 2015 European heat wave.

Interannual variability in CO2 and CH4 exchange in a brackish tidal marsh in Northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, S. H.; Windham-Myers, L.; Anderson, F. E.; Bergamaschi, B. A.

2017-12-01

Carbon (C) cycling in coastal wetlands is difficult to measure and model due to extremely dynamic atmospheric and hydrologic fluxes, as well as sensitivities to dynamic land- and ocean-based drivers. To date, few studies have begun continuous measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) in these systems, and as such our understanding of the key drivers of NEE in coastal wetlands remain poorly understood. Recent eddy covariance measurements of NEE in these environments show considerable variability both within and across sites, with daily CO2 uptake and annual net CO2 budgets varying by nearly an order of magnitude between years and across locations. Furthermore, measurements of CH4 fluxes in these systems are even more limited, despite the potential for CH4 emissions from brackish and freshwater coastal wetlands. Here we present 3 years of near-continuous eddy covariance measurements of CO2 and CH4 fluxes from a brackish tidal marsh in Northern California and explore the drivers of interannual variability in CO2 and CH4 exchange. CO2 fluxes showed significant interannual variability; net CO2 uptake was near-zero in 2014 (6 ± 26 g C-CO2 m-2 yr-1), while much greater uptake was observed in 2015 and 2016 (209 ± 27 g C- CO2 m-2 yr-1 and 243 ± 26 g C-CO2 m-2 yr-1, respectively). Conversely, annual CH4 emissions were small and consistent across years, with the wetland emitting on average 1 ± 0.1 g C-CH4 m-2 yr-1. With respect to the net atmospheric GHG budget (assuming a sustained global warming potential (SGWP) of 45, expressed in units of CO2 equivalents), the wetland was near neutral in 2014, but a net GHG sink of 706 ± 105 g CO2 eq m-2 yr-1 and 836 ± 83 g CO2 eq m-2 yr-1 in 2015 and 2016, respectively. The large interannual variability in CO2 exchange was driven by notable year-to-year differences in temperature and precipitation as California experienced a severe drought and record high temperatures from 2012 to 2015. The large interannual variability in NEE and GHG budgets observed in this study emphasizes the need for long-term measurements of C fluxes in coastal wetlands, particularly under changing climatic conditions.

Seasonal and interannual variability of climate and vegetation indices across the Amazon.

PubMed

Brando, Paulo M; Goetz, Scott J; Baccini, Alessandro; Nepstad, Daniel C; Beck, Pieter S A; Christman, Mary C

2010-08-17

Drought exerts a strong influence on tropical forest metabolism, carbon stocks, and ultimately the flux of carbon to the atmosphere. Satellite-based studies have suggested that Amazon forests green up during droughts because of increased sunlight, whereas field studies have reported increased tree mortality during severe droughts. In an effort to reconcile these apparently conflicting findings, we conducted an analysis of climate data, field measurements, and improved satellite-based measures of forest photosynthetic activity. Wet-season precipitation and plant-available water (PAW) decreased over the Amazon Basin from 1996-2005, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and air dryness (expressed as vapor pressure deficit, VPD) increased from 2002-2005. Using improved enhanced vegetation index (EVI) measurements (2000-2008), we show that gross primary productivity (expressed as EVI) declined with VPD and PAW in regions of sparse canopy cover across a wide range of environments for each year of the study. In densely forested areas, no climatic variable adequately explained the Basin-wide interannual variability of EVI. Based on a site-specific study, we show that monthly EVI was relatively insensitive to leaf area index (LAI) but correlated positively with leaf flushing and PAR measured in the field. These findings suggest that production of new leaves, even when unaccompanied by associated changes in LAI, could play an important role in Basin-wide interannual EVI variability. Because EVI variability was greatest in regions of lower PAW, we hypothesize that drought could increase EVI by synchronizing leaf flushing via its effects on leaf bud development.

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models with atmospheric CO2 measurements: Results from transient simulations considering increasing CO2, climate, and land-use effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dargaville, R.J.; Heimann, Martin; McGuire, A.D.; Prentice, I.C.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Joos, F.; Clein, Joy S.; Esser, G.; Foley, J.; Kaplan, J.; Meier, R.A.; Melillo, J.M.; Moore, B.; Ramankutty, N.; Reichenau, T.; Schloss, A.; Sitch, S.; Tian, H.; Williams, L.J.; Wittenberg, U.

2002-01-01

An atmospheric transport model and observations of atmospheric CO2 are used to evaluate the performance of four Terrestrial Carbon Models (TCMs) in simulating the seasonal dynamics and interannual variability of atmospheric CO2 between 1980 and 1991. The TCMs were forced with time varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and land use to simulate the net exchange of carbon between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The monthly surface CO2 fluxes from the TCMs were used to drive the Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry and the simulated seasonal cycles and concentration anomalies are compared with observations from several stations in the CMDL network. The TCMs underestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and tend to simulate too early an uptake of CO2 during the spring by approximately one to two months. The model fluxes show an increase in amplitude as a result of land-use change, but that pattern is not so evident in the simulated atmospheric amplitudes, and the different models suggest different causes for the amplitude increase (i.e., CO2 fertilization, climate variability or land use change). The comparison of the modeled concentration anomalies with the observed anomalies indicates that either the TCMs underestimate interannual variability in the exchange of CO2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere, or that either the variability in the ocean fluxes or the atmospheric transport may be key factors in the atmospheric interannual variability.

The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohr, Karen I.; Molinari, John; Thorncroft, Chris

2009-01-01

The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data as a cluster of pixels with an 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area of at least 64 square kilometers. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May to September 1998-2007, and in the western Pacific from May to November 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences between the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Subsetting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, the length of the sample period, and the climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is either wetter or drier than normal.

Interannual variability of the Antarctic ozone hole in a GCM. Part 2: A comparison of unforced and QBO-induced variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shindell, D.T.; Rind, D.; Balachandran, N.

1999-06-15

Simulations were performed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM including a prescribed quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), applied at a constant maximum value, and a physically realistic parameterization of the heterogeneous chemistry responsible for severe polar ozone loss. While the QBO is primarily a stratospheric phenomenon, in this model the QBO modulates the amount and propagation of planetary wave energy in the troposphere as well as in the stratosphere. Dynamical activity is greater in the easterly than in the unforced case, while westerly years are dynamically more quiescent. By altering zonal winds and potential vorticity, the QBO forcing changes themore » refraction of planetary waves beginning in midwinter, causing the lower-stratospheric zonal average temperatures at Southern Hemisphere high latitudes to be [approximately]3--5 K warmer in the easterly phase than in the westerly during the late winter and early spring. Ozone loss varies nonlinearly with temperature, due to the sharp threshold for formation of heterogeneous chemistry surfaces, so that the mean daily total mass of ozone depleted in this region during September was 8.7 [times] 10[sup 10] kg in the QBO easterly maximum, as compared with 12.0 [times] 10[sup 10] kg in the westerly maximum and 10.3 [times] 10[sup 10] kg in the unforced case. Through this mechanism, the midwinter divergence of the Eliassen-Palm flux is well correlated with the subsequent springtime total ozone loss (R[sup 2] = 0.6). The chemical ozone loss differences are much larger than QBO-induced transport differences in the authors' model. Inclusion of the QBO forcing also increased the maximum variability in total ozone loss from the [approximately]20% value found in the unforced runs to [approximately]50%. These large variations in ozone depletion are very similar in size to the largest observed variations in the severity of the ozone hole. The results suggest that both random variability and periodic QBO forcing are important components, perhaps explaining some of the difficulties encountered in previous attempts to correlate the severity of the ozone hole with the QBO phase.« less

Factors controlling the interannual variation of 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianying; Mao, Jiangyu

2018-04-01

The 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a dominant variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), with its intensity being quantified by intraseasonal standard deviations based on OLR data. The spatial and interannual variations of the BSISO intensity are identified via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis for the period 1981-2014. The first EOF mode (EOF1) shows a spatially coherent enhancement or suppression of BSISO activity over the entire ASM region, and the interannual variability of this mode is related to the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) contrast between the central-eastern North Pacific (CNP) and tropical Indian Ocean. In contrast, the second mode (EOF2) exhibits a seesaw pattern between the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) and equatorial western Pacific (EWP), with the interannual fluctuation linked with developing ENSO events. During strong years of EOF1 mode, the enhanced low-level westerlies induced by the summer-mean SSTA contrast between the warmer CNP and cooler tropical Indian Ocean tend to form a wetter moisture background over the eastern EIO, which interacts with intraseasonal low-level convergent flows, leading to stronger equatorial eastward propagation. The intensified easterly shear favors stronger northward propagation over the South Asian and Eastern Asian/Western North Pacific sectors, respectively. Opposite situation is for weak years. For interannual variations of EOF2 mode, the seesaw patterns with enhanced BSISO activity over the southeastern EIO while weakened activity over the EWP mostly occur in the La Niña developing summers, but inverse patterns appear in the El Niño developing summers.

Statistical modeling of interannual shoreline change driven by North Atlantic climate variability spanning 2000-2014 in the Bay of Biscay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinet, A.; Castelle, B.; Idier, D.; Le Cozannet, G.; Déqué, M.; Charles, E.

2016-12-01

Modeling studies addressing daily to interannual coastal evolution typically relate shoreline change with waves, currents and sediment transport through complex processes and feedbacks. For wave-dominated environments, the main driver (waves) is controlled by the regional atmospheric circulation. Here a simple weather regime-driven shoreline model is developed for a 15-year shoreline dataset (2000-2014) collected at Truc Vert beach, Bay of Biscay, SW France. In all, 16 weather regimes (four per season) are considered. The centroids and occurrences are computed using the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses, applying k-means and EOF methods to the anomalies of the 500-hPa geopotential height over the North Atlantic Basin. The weather regime-driven shoreline model explains 70% of the observed interannual shoreline variability. The application of a proven wave-driven equilibrium shoreline model to the same period shows that both models have similar skills at the interannual scale. Relation between the weather regimes and the wave climate in the Bay of Biscay is investigated and the primary weather regimes impacting shoreline change are identified. For instance, the winter zonal regime characterized by a strengthening of the pressure gradient between the Iceland low and the Azores high is associated with high-energy wave conditions and is found to drive an increase in the shoreline erosion rate. The study demonstrates the predictability of interannual shoreline change from a limited number of weather regimes, which opens new perspectives for shoreline change modeling and encourages long-term shoreline monitoring programs.

Interannual and seasonal variability of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid abundance in the Northwest Pacific Ocean during 1995-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Wei; Chen, Xinjun; Yi, Qian

2016-06-01

The neon flying squid, Ommastrephes bartramii, is a species of economically important cephalopod in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Its short lifespan increases the susceptibility of the distribution and abundance to the direct impact of the environmental conditions. Based on the generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), the commercial fishery data from the Chinese squid-jigging fleets during 1995 to 2011 were used to examine the interannual and seasonal variability in the abundance of O. bartramii, and to evaluate the influences of variables on the abundance (catch per unit effort, CPUE). The results from GLM suggested that year, month, latitude, sea surface temperature (SST), mixed layer depth (MLD), and the interaction term ( SST×MLD) were significant factors. The optimal model based on GAM included all the six significant variables and could explain 42.43% of the variance in nominal CPUE. The importance of the six variables was ranked by decreasing magnitude: year, month, latitude, SST, MLD and SST×MLD. The squid was mainly distributed in the waters between 40°N and 44°N in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The optimal ranges of SST and MLD were from 14 to 20°C and from 10 to 30 m, respectively. The squid abundance greatly fluctuated from 1995 to 2011. The CPUE was low during 1995-2002 and high during 2003-2008. Furthermore, the squid abundance was typically high in August. The interannual and seasonal variabilities in the squid abundance were associated with the variations of marine environmental conditions and the life history characteristics of squid.

Interannual to decadal climate variability of sea salt aerosols in the coupled climate model CESM1.0: Climate variability of sea salt aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Li; Pierce, David W.; Russell, Lynn M.

This study examines multi-year climate variability associated with sea salt aerosols and their contribution to the variability of shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) using a 150-year simulation for pre-industrial conditions of the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). The results suggest that changes in sea salt and related cloud and radiative properties on interannual timescales are dominated by the ENSO cycle. Sea salt variability on longer (interdecadal) timescales is associated with low-frequency Pacific ocean variability similar to the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), but does not show a statistically significant spectral peak. A multivariate regression suggests that sea salt aerosol variabilitymore » may contribute to SWCF variability in the tropical Pacific, explaining up to 25-35% of the variance in that region. Elsewhere, there is only a small aerosol influence on SWCF through modifying cloud droplet number and liquid water path that contributes to the change of cloud effective radius and cloud optical depth (and hence cloud albedo), producing a multi-year aerosol-cloud-wind interaction.« less

Performance of the WRF model to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in East Africa: a case study for the Tana River basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerandi, Noah Misati; Laux, Patrick; Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-10-01

This study investigates the ability of the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in the Tana River basin (TRB) in Kenya, East Africa. The impact of two different land use classifications, i.e., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) at two horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) is investigated. Simulated precipitation and temperature for the period 2011-2014 are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Research Unit (CRU), and station data. The ability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data in reproducing in situ observation in the TRB is analyzed. All considered WRF simulations capture well the annual as well as the interannual and spatial distribution of precipitation in the TRB according to station data and the TRMM estimates. Our results demonstrate that the increase of horizontal resolution from 50 to 25 km, together with the use of the MODIS land use classification, significantly improves the precipitation results. In the case of temperature, spatial patterns and seasonal cycle are well reproduced, although there is a systematic cold bias with respect to both station and CRU data. Our results contribute to the identification of suitable and regionally adapted regional climate models (RCMs) for East Africa.

Compensatory Water Effects Link Yearly Global Land CO2 Sink Changes to Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Tramontana, Gianluca; Viovy, Nicolas; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Wang, Ying-Ping; Weber, Ulrich; Weber, Ulrich; Zaehle, Soenke; Zeng, Ning;

Spring onset variations and long-term trends from new hemispheric-scale products and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dye, D. G.; Li, X.; Ault, T.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Schwartz, M. D.

2015-12-01

Spring onset is commonly characterized by plant phenophase changes among a variety of biophysical transitions and has important implications for natural and man-managed ecosystems. Here, we present a new integrated analysis of variability in gridded Northern Hemisphere spring onset metrics. We developed a set of hemispheric temperature-based spring indices spanning 1920-2013. As these were derived solely from meteorological data, they are used as a benchmark for isolating the climate system's role in modulating spring "green up" estimated from the annual cycle of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Spatial patterns of interannual variations, teleconnections, and long-term trends were also analyzed in all metrics. At mid-to-high latitudes, all indices exhibit larger variability at interannual to decadal time scales than at spatial scales of a few kilometers. Trends of spring onset vary across space and time. However, compared to long-term trend, interannual to decadal variability generally accounts for a larger portion of the total variance in spring onset timing. Therefore, spring onset trends identified from short existing records may be aliased by decadal climate variations due to their limited temporal depth, even when these records span the entire satellite era. Based on our findings, we also demonstrated that our indices have skill in representing ecosystem-level spring phenology and may have important implications in understanding relationships between phenology, atmosphere dynamics and climate variability.

A high-resolution speleothem record of western equatorial Pacific rainfall: Implications for Holocene ENSO evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Sang; Hoffmann, Sharon S.; Lund, David C.; Cobb, Kim M.; Emile-Geay, Julien; Adkins, Jess F.

2016-05-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of interannual climate variability in the tropics and subtropics. Despite substantial progress in understanding ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that drive ENSO today, relatively little is known about its behavior on centennial and longer timescales. Paleoclimate records from lakes, corals, molluscs and deep-sea sediments generally suggest that ENSO variability was weaker during the mid-Holocene (4-6 kyr BP) than the late Holocene (0-4 kyr BP). However, discrepancies amongst the records preclude a clear timeline of Holocene ENSO evolution and therefore the attribution of ENSO variability to specific climate forcing mechanisms. Here we present δ18 O results from a U-Th dated speleothem in Malaysian Borneo sampled at sub-annual resolution. The δ18 O of Borneo rainfall is a robust proxy of regional convective intensity and precipitation amount, both of which are directly influenced by ENSO activity. Our estimates of stalagmite δ18 O variance at ENSO periods (2-7 yr) show a significant reduction in interannual variability during the mid-Holocene (3240-3380 and 5160-5230 yr BP) relative to both the late Holocene (2390-2590 yr BP) and early Holocene (6590-6730 yr BP). The Borneo results are therefore inconsistent with lacustrine records of ENSO from the eastern equatorial Pacific that show little or no ENSO variance during the early Holocene. Instead, our results support coral, mollusc and foraminiferal records from the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that show a mid-Holocene minimum in ENSO variance. Reduced mid-Holocene interannual δ18 O variability in Borneo coincides with an overall minimum in mean δ18 O from 3.5 to 5.5 kyr BP. Persistent warm pool convection would tend to enhance the Walker circulation during the mid-Holocene, which likely contributed to reduced ENSO variance during this period. This finding implies that both convective intensity and interannual variability in Borneo are driven by coupled air-sea dynamics that are sensitive to precessional insolation forcing. Isolating the exact mechanisms that drive long-term ENSO evolution will require additional high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions and further investigation of Holocene tropical climate evolution using coupled climate models.

The FOODBANCS project: Introduction and sinking fluxes of organic carbon, chlorophyll- a and phytodetritus on the western Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Craig R.; Mincks, Sarah; DeMaster, David J.

2008-11-01

The impact of the highly seasonal Antarctic primary production cycle on shelf benthic ecosystems remains poorly evaluated. Here we describe a times-series research project on the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) shelf designed to evaluate the seafloor deposition, and subsequent ecological and biogeochemical impacts, of the summer phytoplankton bloom along a transect crossing the Antarctic shelf near Anvers Island. During this project, entitled Food for Benthos on the Antarctic Continental Shelf (FOODBANCS), we deployed replicate sediment traps 150-170 m above the seafloor (total water-column depth of 590 m) on the central shelf from December 1999 to March 2001, recovering trap samples every 3-4 months. In addition, we used a seafloor time-lapse camera system, as well as video surveys conducted at 3-4 months intervals, to monitor the presence and accumulation of phytodetritus at the sediment-water interface. The fluxes of particulate organic carbon and chlorophyll- a into sediment traps (binned over 3-4 month intervals) showed patterns consistent with seasonal variability, with average summer fluxes during the first year exceeding winter fluxes by a factor of ˜2-3. However, inter-annual variability in summer fluxes was even greater than seasonal variability, with 4-10-fold differences in the flux of organic carbon and chlorophyll- a between the summer seasons of 1999-2000 and 2000-2001. Phytodetrital accumulation at the shelf floor also exhibited intense inter-annual variability, with no visible phytodetritus from essentially December 1999 to November 2000, followed by pulsed accumulation of 1-2 cm of phytodetritus over a ˜30,000 km 2 shelf area by March 2001. Comparisons with other studies suggest that the levels of inter-annual variability we observed are typical of the Antarctic shelf over decadal time scales. We conclude that fluxes of particulate organic carbon, chlorophyll- a and phytodetritus to WAP-shelf sediments vary intensely on seasonal to inter-annual time scales, yielding dramatic temporal variability in the flux of food for detritivores to the Antarctic shelf floor.

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kilbourne, Hali; Klockmann, Marlene; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Ortega, Pablo; Romanou, Anastasia; Srokosz, Meric; Szuts, Zoltan; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Hall, Ian; Heimbach, Patrick;

Possible role of the dimming/brightening in observed temperatures across Europe since the second half of the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Besselaar, E. J. M.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.; Wild, M.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.

2012-04-01

The surface solar radiation (SSR) is the fundamental source of energy in the climate system, and consequently the source of life on our planet, due to its central role in the surface energy balance. Therefore, a significant impact on temperatures is expected due to the widespread dimming/brightening phenomenon observed since the second half of the 20th century (Wild, 2009). Previous studies pointed out the effects of SSR trends in temperatures series over Europe (Makowski et al., 2009; Philipona et al., 2009), although the lack of long-term SSR series limits these results. This work describes an updated sunshine duration (SS) dataset compiled by the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) project based on around 300 daily time series over Europe covering the 1961-2010 period. The relationship between the SS and temperature series is analysed based on four temperature variables: maximum (TX), minimum (TN) and mean temperature (TG), as well as the diurnal temperature range (DTR). Regional and pan-European mean series of SS and temperatures are constructed. The analyses are performed on annual and seasonal scale, and focusing on the interannual and decadal agreement between the variables. The results show strong positive correlations on interannual scales between SS and temperatures over Europe, especially for the DTR and TX during the summer period and regions in Central Europe. Interestingly, the SS and temperatures series show a tendency towards higher correlations in the smoothed series, both for different regions and temperature variables. These results confirm the relationship between temperature and SS trends over Europe since the second half of the 20th century, which has been speculated to partially decrease (increase) temperatures during the dimming (brightening) period (Makowski et al., 2009; Wild, 2009). Further research is needed to confirm this cause-effect relationship currently found only using correlation analysis.

The Open-Ocean Sensible Heat Flux and Its Significance for Arctic Boundary Layer Mixing During Early Fall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganeshan, Manisha; Wu, Dongliang

2016-01-01

The increasing ice-free area during late summer has transformed the Arctic to a climate system with more dynamic boundary layer (BL) clouds and seasonal sea ice growth. The open-ocean sensible heat flux, a crucial mechanism of excessive ocean heat loss to the atmosphere during the fall freeze season, is speculated to play an important role in the recently observed cloud cover increase and BL instability. However, lack of observations and understanding of the resilience of the proposed mechanisms, especially in relation to meteorological and interannual variability, has left a poorly constrained BL parameterization scheme in Arctic climate models. In this study, we use multiyear Japanese cruise-ship observations from RV Mirai over the open Arctic Ocean to characterize the surface sensible heat flux (SSHF) during early fall and investigate its contribution to BL turbulence. It is found that mixing by SSHF is favored during episodes of high surface wind speed and is also influenced by the prevailing cloud regime. The deepest BLs and maximum ocean-atmosphere temperature difference are observed during cold air advection (associated with the stratocumulus regime), yet, contrary to previous speculation, the efficiency of sensible heat exchange is low. On the other hand, the SSHF contributes significantly to BL mixing during the uplift (low pressure) followed by the highly stable (stratus) regime. Overall, it can explain 10 of the open ocean BL height variability, whereas cloud-driven (moisture and radiative) mechanisms appear to be the other dominant source of convective turbulence. Nevertheless, there is strong interannual variability in the relationship between the SSHF and the BL height which can be intensified by the changing occurrence of Arctic climate patterns, such as positive surface wind speed anomalies and more frequent conditions of uplift. This study highlights the need for comprehensive BL observations like the RV Mirai for better understanding and predicting the dynamic nature of the Arctic climate.

Variability of Arctic Sea Ice as Viewed from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1998-01-01

Over the past 20 years, satellite passive-microwave radiometry has provided a marvelous means for obtaining information about the variability of the Arctic sea ice cover and particularly about sea ice concentrations (% areal coverages) and from them ice extents and the lengths of the sea ice season. This ability derives from the sharp contrast between the microwave emissions of sea ice versus liquid water and allows routine monitoring of the vast Arctic sea ice cover, which typically varies in extent from a minimum of about 8,000,000 sq km in September to a maximum of about 15,000,000 sq km in March, the latter value being over 1.5 times the area of either the United States or Canada. The vast Arctic ice cover has many impacts, including hindering heat, mass, and y momentum exchanges between the oceans and the atmosphere, reducing the amount of solar radiation absorbed at the Earth's surface, affecting freshwater transports and ocean circulation, and serving as a vital surface for many species of polar animals. These direct impacts also lead to indirect impacts, including effects on local and perhaps global atmospheric temperatures, effects that are being examined in general circulation modeling studies, where preliminary results indicate that changes on the order of a few percent sea ice concentration can lead to temperature changes of 1 K or greater even in local areas outside of the sea ice region. Satellite passive-microwave data for November 1978 through December 1996 reveal marked regional and interannual variabilities in both the ice extents and the lengths of the sea ice season, as well as some statistically significant trends. For the north polar ice cover as a whole, maximum ice extents varied over a range of 14,700,000 - 15,900,000 km(2), while individual regions showed much greater percentage variations, e.g., with the Greenland Sea experiencing a range of 740,000 - 1,1110,000 km(2) in its yearly maximum ice coverage. Although variations from year to year and region to region are large, overall the Arctic ice extents did show a statistically significant, 2.8%/ decade negative trend over the 18.2-year period. Ice season lengths, which vary from only a few weeks near the ice margins to the full year in the large region of perennial ice coverage, also experienced interannual variability, and mapping their trends allows detailed geographic information on exactly where the ice season lengthened and where it shortened. Over the 18 years, ice season lengthening occurred predominantly in the western hemisphere and was strongest in the western Labrador Sea, while ice season shortening occurred predominantly in the eastern hemisphere and was strongest in the eastern Barents Sea. Much information about other important Arctic sea ice variables has also been obtained from satellite data, including information about melt ponding, temperature, snow cover, and ice velocities. For instance, maps of ice velocities have now been made from satellite scatterometry data, including information about melt ponding, temperature, snow cover, and ice velocities.

Predictability of Zonal Means During Boreal Summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Suarez, Max J.; Pegion, Philip J.; Kistler, Michael A.; Kumar, Arun; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This study examines the predictability of seasonal means during boreal summer. The results are based on ensembles of June-July-August (JJA) simulations (started in mid May) carried out with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTS) and sea ice for the years 1980-1999. We find that the predictability of the JJA extra-tropical height field is primarily in the zonal mean component of the response to the SST anomalies. This contrasts with the cold season (January-February-March) when the predictability of seasonal means in the boreal extratropics is primarily in the wave component of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. Two patterns dominate the interannual variability of the ensemble mean JJA zonal mean height field. One has maximum variance in the tropical/subtropical upper troposphere, while the other has substantial variance in middle latitudes of both hemispheres. Both are symmetric with respect to the equator. A regression analysis suggests that the tropical/subtropical pattern is associated with SST anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean, while the middle latitude pattern is forced by SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific just east of the dateline. The two leading zonal height patterns are reproduced in model runs forced with the two leading JJA SST patterns of variability. A comparison with observations shows a signature of the middle latitude pattern that is consistent with the occurrence of dry and wet summers over the United States. We hypothesize that both patterns, while imposing only weak constraints on extratropical warm season continental-scale climates, may play a role in the predilection for drought or pluvial conditions.

Absolute water storages in the Congo River floodplains from integration of InSAR and satellite radar altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.; Yuan, T.; Jung, H. C.; Aierken, A.; Beighley, E.; Alsdorf, D. E.; Tshimanga, R.; Kim, D.

2017-12-01

Floodplains delay the transport of water, dissolved matter and sediments by storing water during flood peak seasons. Estimation of water storage over the floodplains is essential to understand the water balances in the fluvial systems and the role of floodplains in nutrient and sediment transport. However, spatio-temporal variations of water storages over floodplains are not well known due to their remoteness, vastness, and high temporal variability. In this study, we propose a new method to estimate absolute water storages over the floodplains by establishing relations between water depths (d) and water volumes (V) using 2-D water depth maps from the integration of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and altimetry measurements. We applied this method over the Congo River floodplains and modeled the d-V relation using a power function (note that d-V indicates relation between d and V, not d minus V), which revealed the cross-section geometry of the floodplains as a convex curve. Then, we combined this relation and Envisat altimetry measurements to construct time series of floodplain's absolute water storages from 2002 to 2011. Its mean annual amplitude over the floodplains ( 7,777 km2) is 3.860.59 km3 with peaks in December, which lags behind total water storage (TWS) changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and precipitation changes from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) by about one month. The results also exhibit inter-annual variability, with maximum water volume to be 5.9 +- 0.72 km3 in the wet year of 2002 and minimum volume to be 2.01 +- 0.63 km3 in the dry year of 2005. The inter-annual variation of water storages can be explained by the changes of precipitation from TRMM.

Climate variability has a stabilizing effect on the coexistence of prairie grasses

PubMed Central

Adler, Peter B.; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Kyriakidis, Phaedon C.; Guan, Qingfeng; Levine, Jonathan M.

2006-01-01

How expected increases in climate variability will affect species diversity depends on the role of such variability in regulating the coexistence of competing species. Despite theory linking temporal environmental fluctuations with the maintenance of diversity, the importance of climate variability for stabilizing coexistence remains unknown because of a lack of appropriate long-term observations. Here, we analyze three decades of demographic data from a Kansas prairie to demonstrate that interannual climate variability promotes the coexistence of three common grass species. Specifically, we show that (i) the dynamics of the three species satisfy all requirements of “storage effect” theory based on recruitment variability with overlapping generations, (ii) climate variables are correlated with interannual variation in species performance, and (iii) temporal variability increases low-density growth rates, buffering these species against competitive exclusion. Given that environmental fluctuations are ubiquitous in natural systems, our results suggest that coexistence based on the storage effect may be underappreciated and could provide an important alternative to recent neutral theories of diversity. Field evidence for positive effects of variability on coexistence also emphasizes the need to consider changes in both climate means and variances when forecasting the effects of global change on species diversity. PMID:16908862

How strong is the impact of the Indo-ocean dipole on the surface air temperature/sea level pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polonsky, Alexander B.; Basharin, Dmitry V.

2017-04-01

The aim of this paper is to study the interannual climate variability over the Mediterranean region related to the Indo-ocean dipole (IOD) using the data of re-analyses, archival data and specialized numerical experiments. It is shown that the IOD does not impact essentially the anomalies of surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) in the Mediterranean region. On average, the IOD-induced share of the SAT/SLP variance in the total variance of these fields in the Mediterranean region is smaller than 10% even in summer when it is at a maximum. However, the statistically significant IOD-induced SAT/SLP anomalies in the Mediterranean region are detectable. For definite IOD events the associated Mediterranean SAT anomalies can reach about 1 °C.

Towards an integrated forecasting system for fisheries on habitat-bound stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, A.; Butenschön, M.; Gürkan, Z.; Allen, I. J.

2013-03-01

First results of a coupled modelling and forecasting system for fisheries on habitat-bound stocks are being presented. The system consists currently of three mathematically, fundamentally different model subsystems coupled offline: POLCOMS providing the physical environment implemented in the domain of the north-west European shelf, the SPAM model which describes sandeel stocks in the North Sea, and the third component, the SLAM model, which connects POLCOMS and SPAM by computing the physical-biological interaction. Our major experience by the coupling model subsystems is that well-defined and generic model interfaces are very important for a successful and extendable coupled model framework. The integrated approach, simulating ecosystem dynamics from physics to fish, allows for analysis of the pathways in the ecosystem to investigate the propagation of changes in the ocean climate and to quantify the impacts on the higher trophic level, in this case the sandeel population, demonstrated here on the basis of hindcast data. The coupled forecasting system is tested for some typical scientific questions appearing in spatial fish stock management and marine spatial planning, including determination of local and basin-scale maximum sustainable yield, stock connectivity and source/sink structure. Our presented simulations indicate that sandeel stocks are currently exploited close to the maximum sustainable yield, even though periodic overfishing seems to have occurred, but large uncertainty is associated with determining stock maximum sustainable yield due to stock inherent dynamics and climatic variability. Our statistical ensemble simulations indicates that the predictive horizon set by climate interannual variability is 2-6 yr, after which only an asymptotic probability distribution of stock properties, like biomass, are predictable.

Projected Changes in Mean and Interannual Variability of Surface Water over Continental China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong; Tang, Qiuhong; Huang, Maoyi

Five General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to investigate the impacts of climate change on hydrologic cycle over continental China in the 21st century. The bias-corrected climatic variables were generated for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Results showed much larger fractional changes of annual mean Evaportranspiration (ET) per unit warming than the corresponding fractional changes of Precipitation (P) per unit warming across the country especially for South China,more » which led to notable decrease of surface water variability (P-E). Specifically, negative trends for annual mean runoff up to -0.33%/decade and soil moisture trends varying between -0.02 to -0.13%/decade were found for most river basins across China. Coincidentally, interannual variability for both runoff and soil moisture exhibited significant positive trends for almost all river basins across China, implying an increase in extremes relative to the mean conditions. Noticeably, the largest positive trends for runoff variability and soil moisture variability, which were up to 38 0.41%/decade and 0.90%/decade, both occurred in Southwest China. In addition to the regional contrast, intra-seasonal variation was also large for the runoff mean and runoff variability changes, but small for the soil moisture mean and variability changes. Our results suggest that future climate change could further exacerbate existing water-related risks (e.g. floods and droughts) across China as indicated by the marked decrease of surface water amounts combined with steady increase of interannual variability throughout the 21st century. This study highlights the regional contrast and intra-seasonal variations for the projected hydrologic changes and could provide muti-scale guidance for assessing effective adaptation strategies for the country on a river basin, regional, or as whole.« less

Variability of AVHRR-Derived Clear-Sky Surface Temperature over the Greenland Ice Sheet.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, Julienne; Steffen, Konrad

1998-01-01

The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer is used to derive surface temperatures for one satellite pass under clear skies over the Greenland ice sheet from 1989 through 1993. The results of these temperatures are presented as monthly means, and their spatial and temporal variability are discussed. Accuracy of the dry snow surface temperatures is estimated to be better than 1 K during summer. This error is expected to increase during polar night due to problems in cloud identification. Results indicate the surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is strongly dominated by topography, with minimum surface temperatures associated with the high elevation regions. In the summer, maximum surface temperatures occur during July along the western coast and southern tip of the ice sheet. Minimum temperatures are found at the summit during summer and move farther north during polar night. Large interannual variability in surface temperatures occurs during winter associated with katabatic storm events. Summer temperatures show little variation, although 1992 stands out as being colder than the other years. The reason for the lower temperatures during 1992 is believed to be a result of the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo.

Higher stability in forest-atmosphere exchange observed in a structurally diverse forest.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamrakar, R.; Rayment, M.; Moyano, F.; Herbst, M.; Mund, M.; Knohl, A.

2016-12-01

We tested the hypothesis that structurally diverse forests have greater stability on exchange processes with the atmosphere compared to forests with less diverse structure. In a case study, we assessed how net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and normalized maximum assimilation (Amax) varied over time in two forests in Germany based on 11 years of continuous eddy flux measurements. The two sites differ in structure as well as in species composition: one (Hainich) is an unmanaged, uneven-aged and heterogeneous mixed beech forest (65% beech), the other (Leinefelde) is a managed, even-aged and homogeneous pure beech stand. The two selected forests are of similar mean ages (about 130 years old) and exposed to similar air temperatures and vapour pressure deficits. Even though Hainich (the unmanaged forest) received higher rainfall (720 ± 134 mm vs 599±166 mm), the soil water availability showed no significant difference between both sites. Based on detailed biomass inventory, trees in Hainich are well distributed in all diameter at breast height (dbh) classes (10 to 90cm dbh) whereas in Leinefelde (the managed forest) trees are mostly confined to dbh classes of 40 to 55 cm. Our results showed a strong difference in inter-annual variability of NEE, which was lower in the unmanaged than in the managed site (coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.13 and 0.27, respectively). The lowest NEE was observed in both sites in 2004, a mast year and a year after the strong summer drought of 2003. The variation in the inter-annual normalized maximum assimilation (Amax) was lower in Hainich (standard deviation of 2.5 compared to 3.9 µmol m-2 s-1). Also, the seasonal course of Amax differed between the two forests which could explain why the mixed forest was more affected by the late summer drought of 2003, despite showing a more conservative carbon budget than the pure stand in the long term. The interannual anomaly in Amax was correlated with fruit production, the latter being larger in Leinefelde (CV of 1.37 vs. 1.18). Our data provide evidence from a case study that exchange processes with the atmosphere are more stable in structurally diverse forests, yet a confirmation covering multiple sites is still pending.

Association between mean and interannual equatorial Indian Ocean subsurface temperature bias in a coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivas, G.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Prasad, K. V. S. R.; Karmakar, Ananya; Parekh, Anant

2018-03-01

In the present study the association between mean and interannual subsurface temperature bias over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) is investigated during boreal summer (June through September; JJAS) in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) hindcast. Anomalously high subsurface warm bias (greater than 3 °C) over the eastern EIO (EEIO) region is noted in CFSv2 during summer, which is higher compared to other parts of the tropical Indian Ocean. Prominent eastward current bias in the upper 100 m over the EIO region induced by anomalous westerly winds is primarily responsible for subsurface temperature bias. The eastward currents transport warm water to the EEIO and is pushed down to subsurface due to downwelling. Thus biases in both horizontal and vertical currents over the EIO region support subsurface warm bias. The evolution of systematic subsurface warm bias in the model shows strong interannual variability. These maximum subsurface warming episodes over the EEIO are mainly associated with La Niña like forcing. Strong convergence of low level winds over the EEIO and Maritime continent enhanced the westerly wind bias over the EIO during maximum warming years. This low level convergence of wind is induced by the bias in the gradient in the mean sea level pressure with positive bias over western EIO and negative bias over EEIO and parts of western Pacific. Consequently, changes in the atmospheric circulation associated with La Niña like conditions affected the ocean dynamics by modulating the current bias thereby enhancing the subsurface warm bias over the EEIO. It is identified that EEIO subsurface warming is stronger when La Niña co-occurred with negative Indian Ocean Dipole events as compared to La Niña only years in the model. Ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments forced with CFSv2 winds clearly support our hypothesis that ocean dynamics influenced by westerly winds bias is primarily responsible for the strong subsurface warm bias over the EEIO. This study advocates the importance of understanding the ability of the models in representing the large scale air-sea interactions over the tropics and their impact on ocean biases for better monsoon forecast.

How does the terrestrial carbon exchange respond to inter-annual climatic variations? A quantification based on atmospheric CO2 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, Christian; Zaehle, Sönke; Keeling, Ralph; Heimann, Martin

2018-04-01

The response of the terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to climate variations and trends may crucially determine the future climate trajectory. Here we directly quantify this response on inter-annual timescales by building a linear regression of inter-annual NEE anomalies against observed air temperature anomalies into an atmospheric inverse calculation based on long-term atmospheric CO2 observations. This allows us to estimate the sensitivity of NEE to inter-annual variations in temperature (seen as a climate proxy) resolved in space and with season. As this sensitivity comprises both direct temperature effects and the effects of other climate variables co-varying with temperature, we interpret it as inter-annual climate sensitivity. We find distinct seasonal patterns of this sensitivity in the northern extratropics that are consistent with the expected seasonal responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and fire. Within uncertainties, these sensitivity patterns are consistent with independent inferences from eddy covariance data. On large spatial scales, northern extratropical and tropical inter-annual NEE variations inferred from the NEE-T regression are very similar to the estimates of an atmospheric inversion with explicit inter-annual degrees of freedom. The results of this study offer a way to benchmark ecosystem process models in more detail than existing effective global climate sensitivities. The results can also be used to gap-fill or extrapolate observational records or to separate inter-annual variations from longer-term trends.

Remotely-sensed phenologies of C3 and C4 grasses in Hawaii using MODIS Vegetation Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pau, S.; Still, C. J.

2010-12-01

The C3 and C4 photosynthetic pathway is a fundamental physiological and ecological distinction in tropical and subtropical savannas and grasslands. Although C4 plants account for 20-25% of global terrestrial productivity, large uncertainties remain regarding their response to climate variability and future climate change. Recent work has shown that key differences in the ecology of C3 and C4 grasses may have been pre-adaptations to environments prior to the evolution of the C4 grasses and not attributable to photosynthetic pathway. The Hawaiian Islands are ideal for studying C3 and C4 grass plant functional types (PFTs) because of the combination of broad climatic gradients within a small geographic area. This study uses MODIS NDVI and EVI time-series data to examine the phenologies of C3 and C4 grasses in a phylogenetic context. Specifically we address 3 primary questions: (1) Do C3 and C4 sister taxa, and C4 subtypes exhibit distinct timing in phenological metrics (onset of greening, onset of senescence, maximum and minimum greenness, length of growing season)? (2) How does the interannual variation in these phenological metrics correlate with interannual variations in climate such as precipitation, air temperature, land surface temperature, and sea surface temperature? (3) How does the length of the growing season translate into differences in productivity?

Interannual variability in stratiform cloudiness and sea surface temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Joel R.; Leovy, Conway B.

1994-01-01

Marine stratiform cloudiness (MSC)(stratus, stratocumulus, and fog) is widespread over subtropical oceans west of the continents and over midlatitude oceans during summer, the season when MSC has maximum influence on surface downward radiation and is most influenced by boundary-layer processes. Long-term datasets of cloudiness and sea surface teperature (SST) from surface observations from 1952 to 1981 are used to examine interannual variations in MSC and SST. Linear correlations of anomalies in seasonal MSC amount with seasonal SST anomalies are negative and significant in midlatitude and eastern subtropical oceans, especially during summer. Significant negative correlations between SST and nimbostratus and nonprecipitating midlevel cloudiness are also observed at midlatitudes during summer, suggesting that summer storm tracks shift from year to year following year-to-year meridional shifts in the SST gradient. Over the 30-yr period, there are significant upward trends in MSC amount over the northern midlatitude oceans and a significant downward trend off the coast of California. The highest correlations and trends occur where gradients in MSC and SST are strongest. During summer, correlations between SST and MSC anomalies peak at zero lag in midlatitudes where warm advection prevails, but SST lags MSC in subtropical regions where cold advection predominates. This difference is attributed to a tendency for anomalies in latent heat flux to compensate anomalies in surface downward radiation in warm advection regions but not in cold advection regions.

Inter-annual Variability of Temperature and Extreme Heat Events during the Nairobi Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, A.; Misiani, H. O.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ouma, G. O.; Anyah, R. O.; Jordan, A.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events significantly stress all organisms in the ecosystem, and are likely to be amplified in peri-urban and urban areas. Understanding the variability and drivers behind these events is key to generating early warnings, yet in Equatorial East Africa, this information is currently unavailable. This study uses daily maximum and minimum temperature records from weather stations within Nairobi and its surroundings to characterize variability in daily minimum temperatures and the number of extreme heat events. ERA-Interim reanalysis is applied to assess the drivers of these events at event and seasonal time scales. At seasonal time scales, high temperatures in Nairobi are a function of large scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature (GMSST). Extreme heat events, however, are more strongly associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For instance, the persistence of AMO and ENSO, in particular, provide a basis for seasonal prediction of extreme heat events/days in Nairobi. It is also apparent that the temporal signal from extreme heat events in tropics differs from classic heat wave definitions developed in the mid-latitudes, which suggests that a new approach for defining these events is necessary for tropical regions.

Regional peculiarities in the inter-annual distribution of the red 630.0 nm line nightglow intensities over Abastumani

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toriashvili, L.; Didebulidze, G. G.; Todua, M.

2017-12-01

Peculiarities of the inter-annual distribution of atomic oxygen red OI 630.0 nm line nightglow intensity observed from Abastumani Astrophysical Observatory (41.75 N; 42.82 E) are considered, using the long-term dataset. This distribution demonstrates semi-annual and annual-like variations which occur during solar minimum, as well as maximum phases. The maximum values of the red line intensities are in Summer, however in June it is lower than in May and July, which may be due to regional effects. This phenomenon is considered as a the possible result of regional dynamical processes influencing the behavior of the ionosphere F2 layer which cause changes of electrons/ions densities in the 630.0 nm line luminous region (maximum luminous layer is at about 230-280 km). Using the red line intensities and ionosphere F2 layer electron density data of the IRI-12 model, the changes of meridional thermospheric wind velocities are estimated for this mid-latitude region. These meridional and vertical wind field changes causes of variations of the red line intensities in June can be caused by tidal wind and accompanied by atmospheric gravity waves activities.

Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics.

PubMed

Koelle, Katia; Rodó, Xavier; Pascual, Mercedes; Yunus, Md; Mostafa, Golam

2005-08-04

Outbreaks of many infectious diseases, including cholera, malaria and dengue, vary over characteristic periods longer than 1 year. Evidence that climate variability drives these interannual cycles has been highly controversial, chiefly because it is difficult to isolate the contribution of environmental forcing while taking into account nonlinear epidemiological dynamics generated by mechanisms such as host immunity. Here we show that a critical interplay of environmental forcing, specifically climate variability, and temporary immunity explains the interannual disease cycles present in a four-decade cholera time series from Matlab, Bangladesh. We reconstruct the transmission rate, the key epidemiological parameter affected by extrinsic forcing, over time for the predominant strain (El Tor) with a nonlinear population model that permits a contributing effect of intrinsic immunity. Transmission shows clear interannual variability with a strong correspondence to climate patterns at long periods (over 7 years, for monsoon rains and Brahmaputra river discharge) and at shorter periods (under 7 years, for flood extent in Bangladesh, sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation). The importance of the interplay between extrinsic and intrinsic factors in determining disease dynamics is illustrated during refractory periods, when population susceptibility levels are low as the result of immunity and the size of cholera outbreaks only weakly reflects climate forcing.

Interannual Variations in Earth's Low-Degree Gravity Field and the Connections With Geophysical/Climatic Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Benjamin F.; Cox, Christopher M.

2004-01-01

Long-wavelength time-variable gravity recently derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) analysis have focused to a large extent on the effects of the recent (since 1998) large anomalous change in J2, or the Earth's oblateness, and the potential causes. However, it is relatively more difficult to determine whether there are corresponding signals in the shorter wavelength zonal harmonics from the existing SLR-derived time variable gravity results, although it appears that geophysical fluid mass transport is being observed. For example, the recovered J3 time series shows remarkable agreement with NCEP-derived estimates of atmospheric gravity variations. Likewise, some of the non-zonal spherical harmonic components have significant interannual signal that appears to be related to mass transport. The non-zonal degree-2 components show reasonable temporal correlation with atmospheric signals, as well as climatic effects such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. We will present recent updates on the J2 evolution, as well as a look at other low-degree components of the interannual variations of gravity, complete through degree 4. We will examine the possible geophysical and climatic causes of these low-degree time-variable gravity related to oceanic and hydrological mass transports, for example some anomalous but prominent signals found in the extratropic Pacific ocean related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ault, Toby R.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Zurita-Milla, Raul; Weltzin, Jake F.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from 20.8 to 21.6 days decade21, while first bloom index trends are between20.4 and 21.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal time scales. Finally, there is some potential for successful subseasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Trends and Natural Variability of Spring Onset in the Coterminous United States as Evaluated by a New Gridded Dataset of Spring Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ault, T.; Schwartz, M. D.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Weltzin, J. F.; Betancourt, J. L.

2015-12-01

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous US. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from -0.8 to -1.6 days per decade, while first bloom index trends are between -0.4 and -1.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal timescales. Finally, there is some potential for successful sub-seasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lei; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yaocun

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation,more » the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.« less

Tradeoffs between vegetation management goals and livestock production under Adapative Grazing Management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rangeland ecosystems are characterized by substantial temporal variability in weather overlaid on spatial variability associated with topography and soils (Fuhlendorf et al. 2012). Semiarid rangelands in particular are characterized by more extreme intra- and inter-annual variation in precipitation ...

Combining multiple ecosystem productivity measurements to constrain carbon uptake estimates in semiarid grasslands and shrublands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, G. E.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Collins, S. L.; Litvak, M. E.

2016-12-01

Recent observational and modeling studies have indicated that semiarid ecosystems are more dynamic contributors to the global carbon budget than once thought. Semiarid carbon fluxes, however, are generally small, with high interannual and spatial variability, which suggests that validating their global significance may depend on examining multiple productivity measures and their associated uncertainties and inconsistencies. We examined ecosystem productivity from eddy covariance (NEE), harvest (NPP), and terrestrial biome models (NEPm) at two very similar grassland sites and one creosote shrubland site in the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge of central New Mexico, USA. Our goal was to assess site and methodological correspondence in annual carbon uptake, patterns of interannual variability, and measurement uncertainty. One grassland site was a perennial carbon source losing 30 g C m-2 per year on average, while the other two sites were carbon sources or sinks depending on the year, with average net uptake of 5 and 25 g C m-2 per year at the grassland and shrubland site, respectively. Uncertainty values for cumulative annual NEE overlapped between the three sites in most years. When combined, aboveground and belowground annual NPP measurements were 15% higher than annual NEE values and did not confirm a loss of carbon at any site in any year. Despite differences in mean site carbon balance, year-to-year changes in cumulative annual NEE and NPP were similar at all sites with years 2010 and 2013 being favorable for carbon uptake and 2011 and 2012 being unfavorable at all sites. Modeled NEPm data for a number of nearby grid cells reproduced only a fraction of the observed range in carbon uptake and its interannual variability. These three sites are highly similar in location and climate and multiple carbon flux measurements confirm the high interannual variability in carbon flux. The exact magnitude of these fluxes, however, remains difficult to discern.

Challenges in modeling spatiotemporally varying phytoplankton blooms in the Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedigh Marvasti, S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Bidokhti, A. A.; Dunne, J. P.; Ghader, S.

2016-02-01

Recent years have shown an increase in harmful algal blooms in the Northwest Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman, raising the question of whether climate change will accelerate this trend. This has led us to examine whether the Earth System Models used to simulate phytoplankton productivity accurately capture bloom dynamics in this region - both in terms of the annual cycle and interannual variability. Satellite data (SeaWIFS ocean color) show two climatological blooms in this region, a wintertime bloom peaking in February and a summertime bloom peaking in September. On a regional scale, interannual variability of the wintertime bloom is dominated by cyclonic eddies which vary in location from one year to another. Two coarse (1°) models with the relatively complex biogeochemistry (TOPAZ) capture the annual cycle but neither eddies nor the interannual variability. An eddy-resolving model (GFDL CM2.6) with a simpler biogeochemistry (miniBLING) displays larger interannual variability, but overestimates the wintertime bloom and captures eddy-bloom coupling in the south but not in the north. The models fail to capture both the magnitude of the wintertime bloom and its modulation by eddies in part because of their failure to capture the observed sharp thermocline and/or nutricline in this region. When CM2.6 is able to capture such features in the Southern part of the basin, eddies modulate diffusive nutrient supply to the surface (a mechanism not previously emphasized in the literature). For the model to simulate the observed wintertime blooms within cyclones, it will be necessary to represent this relatively unusual nutrient structure as well as the cyclonic eddies. This is a challenge in the Northern Arabian Sea as it requires capturing the details of the outflow from the Persian Gulf - something that is poorly done in global models.

Spatio-temporal variability of the SPCZ fresh pool eastern front from coral-derived surface salinity data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dassié, Emilie P.; Hasson, Audrey; Khodri, Myriam; Linsley, Braddock K.

2017-04-01

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a major atmospheric feature of the southern hemisphere. It is a low atmospheric convergence band associated with intense precipitations. Its position and intensity responds to global changes but also modulates regional weather patterns. Interannual to long-term SPCZ modifications result in extreme events such as severe droughts or flooding with profound socio-economic consequences. The SPCZ oceanic counterpart is a large body of fresh water (SSS<34.5 pss) extending southeast from the Maritime Continent to the dateline. This freshpool is separated from the high-salinity waters of the South Pacific gyre to the west by a steep salinity front. Various studies have shown a freshening of the freshpool and its south-eastward expansion since the 1970s, modulated by interannual to interdecadal variability (Cravatte et al., 2009). The scarcity of traditional SSS measurements limits our ability to describe accurately this variability. This study validates the use of coral d18O as a proxy for the reconstruction of SSS over the last 200 years. Derived SSS is validated against insitu data at 3 different locations along the SSS front (Fiji, Tonga and Rarotonga Islands). This new dataset enables us to investigate the spatio-temporal variations of the SSS front prior to the instrumental data. Two robust modes of variability are present in the reconstructed SSS datasets: interannual variability and a secular trend. The reconstructed SSS variability follows El Niño Southern Oscillation index. The three sites present secular trends toward fresher conditions, but do not present similar variability, neither in timing nor strength over their total length. Furthermore, the role of atmospheric freshwater fluxes on SSS variability is evaluated by comparing reconstructed SSS to available historical rain gauge data. Results highlight the role of both atmospheric freshwater fluxes and ocean dynamics on SSS variability.

The hydrography of the Mozambique Channel from six years of continuous temperature, salinity, and velocity observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullgren, J. E.; van Aken, H. M.; Ridderinkhof, H.; de Ruijter, W. P. M.

2012-11-01

Temperature, salinity and velocity data are presented, along with the estimated volume transport, from seven full-length deep sea moorings placed across the narrowest part of the Mozambique Channel, southwest Indian Ocean, during the period November 2003 to December 2009. The dominant water mass in the upper layer is Sub-Tropical Surface Water (STSW) which overlies South Indian Central Water (SICW), and is normally capped by fresher Tropical Surface Water (TSW). Upper ocean salinity increased through 2005 as a result of saline STSW taking up a relatively larger part of the upper layer, at the expense of TSW. Upper waters are on average warmer and lighter in the central Channel than on the sides. Throughout the upper 1.5 km of the water column there is large hydrographic variability, short-term as well as interannual, and in particular at frequencies (four to seven cycles per year) associated with the southward passage of anticyclonic Mozambique Channel eddies. The eddies have a strong T-S signal, in the upper and central waters as well as on the intermediate level, as the eddies usually carry saline Red Sea Water (RSW) in their core. While the interannual frequency band displays an east-west gradient with higher temperature variance on the western side, the eddy frequency band shows highest variance in the centre of the Channel, where the eddy band contains about 40% of the total isopycnal hydrographic variability. Throughout the >6 years of measurements, the frequency and characteristics of eddies vary between periods, both in terms of strength and vertical structure of eddy T-S signals. These changes contribute to the interannual variability of water mass properties: an increase in central water salinity to a maximum in late 2007 coincided with a period of unusually frequent eddies with strong salinity signals. The warmest and most saline deep water is found within the northward flowing Mozambique Undercurrent, on the western side of the Channel. The Undercurrent has two cores: an intermediate one mainly containing diluted Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), and a deep one consisting of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). In the intermediate core, T-S properties are strongly correlated with current velocity, probably because of the strong salinity gradient at the interface between Red Sea Water (RSW) and AAIW. In the deep core, velocity and hydrographic time series do not correlate on a daily basis, but they do at longer time scales.

Evaporation from a shallow, saline lake in the Nebraska Sandhills: Energy balance drivers of seasonal and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riveros-Iregui, Diego A.; Lenters, John D.; Peake, Colin S.; Ong, John B.; Healey, Nathan C.; Zlotnik, Vitaly A.

2017-10-01

Despite potential evaporation rates in excess of the local precipitation, dry climates often support saline lakes through groundwater inputs of water and associated solutes. These groundwater-fed lakes are important indicators of environmental change, in part because their shallow water levels and salinity are very sensitive to weather and climatic variability. Some of this sensitivity arises from high rates of open-water evaporation, which is a dominant but poorly quantified process for saline lakes. This study used the Bowen ratio energy budget method to calculate open-water evaporation rates for Alkali Lake, a saline lake in the Nebraska Sandhills region (central United States), where numerous groundwater-fed lakes occupy the landscape. Evaporation rates were measured during the warm season (May - October) over three consecutive years (2007-2009) to gain insights into the climatic and limnological factors driving evaporation, as well as the partitioning of energy balance components at seasonal and interannual time scales. Results show a seasonal peak in evaporation rate in late June of 7.0 mm day-1 (on average), with a maximum daily rate of 10.5 mm day-1 and a 3-year mean July-September (JAS) rate of 5.1 mm day-1, which greatly exceeds the long-term JAS precipitation rate of 1.3 mm day-1. Seasonal variability in lake evaporation closely follows that of net radiation and lake surface temperature, with sensible heat flux and heat storage variations being relatively small, except in response to short-term, synoptic events. Interannual changes in the surface energy balance were weak, by comparison, although a 6-fold increase in mean lake level over the three years (0.05-0.30 m) led to greater heat storage within the lake, an enhanced JAS lake-air temperature gradient, and greater sensible heat loss. These large variations in water level were also associated with large changes in absolute salinity (from 28 to 118 g kg-1), with periods of high salinity characterized by reductions in mass transfer estimates of evaporation rate by up to 20%, depending on atmospheric conditions and absolute salinity. Energy balance estimates of evaporation, on the other hand, were found to be less sensitive to variations in salinity. These results provide regional insights for lakes in the Nebraska Sandhills region and implications for estimation of the energy and water balance of saline lakes in similar arid and semi-arid landscapes.

The Mean State and Inter-annual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, T.; Song, F.

2014-12-01

The climatology and inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air-sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The inter-annual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest 8 models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO-WPAC teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the easterly anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC make the TEIO warmer in CGCMs by reducing the climatological monsoon westerlies and decreasing the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomalies and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the inter-annual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs. Key words: CMIP5, CGCMs, air-sea coupling, AGCMs, inter-annual EASM pattern, ENSO, IO-WPAC teleconnection

Seasonal and interannual variability of surface CDOM in the South China Sea associated with El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jinfeng; Zhan, Haigang; Du, Yan

2011-04-01

Satellite imagery of SeaWiFS from October 1997 to November 2007 is used to investigate the dominant seasonal and interannual variations of the surface light absorption due to Colored Dissolved Organic Materials (CDOM) in the South China Sea (SCS). Results show that the spatial distribution of CDOM mimics the major features of the SCS basin-scale circulation. High values of CDOM are found in upwelling regions like southeast of Vietnam in summer and northwest of Luzon in winter. At a basin scale, CDOM is high in winter when upwelling is strong, solar shortwave radiation and stratification weak, and vertical mixing intense. Opposite conditions exist in spring and summer. Interannual variability of the basin-wide CDOM is characterized by abnormal troughs during the El Niño events. A strong relationship exists between the time series of the first EOF mode (for both winter and summer) and Niño 3.4 Index. Associations of these events with climatic and hydrographic properties (i.e. wind forcing, solar shortwave radiation, Ekman pumping, vertical mixing, sea surface height and temperature) are discussed.

Preface and brief synthesis for the FOODBANCS volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Craig R.; DeMaster, David J.

2008-11-01

In this volume we present results from the FOODBANCS Project, which examined the fate and benthic community impact of summer bloom material on the West Antarctic Peninsula shelf floor. The project involved a 5-cruise, 15-month time-series program in which sediment-trap moorings, core sampling, radiochemical profiling, sediment respirometry, bottom photography, and bottom trawling were used to evaluate: (1) seafloor deposition and lability of POC, (2) patterns of labile POC consumption and sediment mixing by benthos, and (3) seasonal and inter-annual variations in biotic abundance, biomass, reproductive condition, recruitment, and sediment community respiration. We find that the seafloor flux and accumulation of particulate organic carbon on the West Antarctic Peninsula shelf exhibit intense seasonal and interannual variability. Nonetheless, many key benthic processes, including organic-matter degradation, bioturbation, deposit feeding, and faunal abundance, reproduction and recruitment, show relatively muted response to this intense seasonal and inter-annual variability in export flux. We thus hypothesize that benthic ecosystems on the Antarctic shelf act as "low-pass" filters, and may be extremely useful in resolving the impacts of climatic change over periods of years to decades in Antarctic Peninsula region.

Effects of ocean-atmosphere coupling on rainfall over the Indian Ocean and northwestern Pacific Ocean during boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Z. Q.; Xie, S. P.; Zhou, W.

2016-12-01

Atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM), forced with specified SST, has been widely used in climate studies. On one hand, AGCM is much faster to run compared to coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Also, the identical SST forcing allows a clean evaluation of the atmospheric component of CGCM. On the other hand, the coupling between atmosphere and ocean is missed in such atmosphere-only simulations. It is not clear how such simplification could affect the simulate of the atmosphere. In this study, the impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling is studied by comparing a CGCM simulation with an AGCM simulation which is forced with monthly SSTs specified from the CGCM simulation. Particularly, we focus on the climatology and interannual variability of rainfall over the IONWP during boreal summer. The IONWP is a unique region with a strong negative correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall during boreal summer on the interannual time scale. The lead/lag correlation analysis suggests a negative feedback of rainfall on SST, which is only reasonably captured by CGCMs. We find that the lack of the negative feedback in AGCM not only enhances the climatology and interannual variability of rainfall but also increases the internal variability of rainfall over the IONWP. A simple mechanism is proposed to explain such enhancement. In addition, AGCM is able to capture the large-scale rainfall pattern over the IONWP during boreal summer, this is because that rainfall here is caused by remote ENSO effect on the interannual time scale. Our results herein suggest that people should be more careful when using an AGCM for climate change studies.

Interannual Variability in Amundsen Sea Ice-Shelf Height Change Linked to ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paolo, F. S.; Fricker, H. A.; Padman, L.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric and sea-ice conditions around Antarctica, particularly in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, respond to climate dynamics in the tropical Pacific Ocean on interannual time scales including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It has been hypothesized that the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, including its floating ice shelves, also responds to this climate signal; however, this has not yet been unambiguously demonstrated. We apply multivariate singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) to our 18-year (1994-2012) time series of ice-shelf height in the Amundsen Sea (AS) region. This advanced spectral method distinguishes between regular deterministic behavior ("cycles") at sub-decadal time scale and irregular behavior ("noise") at shorter time scales. Although the long-term trends of AS ice-shelf height changes are much larger than the range of interannual variability, the short-term rate of change dh/dt can vary about the trend by more than 50%. The mode of interannual variability in the AS ice-shelf height is strongly correlated with the low-frequency mode of ENSO (periodicity of ~4.5 years) as represented by the Southern Oscillation Index. The ice-shelf height in the AS is expected to respond to changes in precipitation and inflows of warm subsurface Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) into the ocean cavities under the ice shelves, altering basal melt rates. Since both of these processes affecting ice-shelf mass balance respond to changes in wind fields for different ENSO states, we expect some correlation between them. We will describe the spatial structure of AS ice-shelf height response to ENSO, and attempt to distinguish the precipitation signal from basal mass balance due to changing CDW inflows.

Seasonal and interannual variability of climate and vegetation indices across the Amazon

PubMed Central

Brando, Paulo M.; Goetz, Scott J.; Baccini, Alessandro; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Christman, Mary C.

2010-01-01

Drought exerts a strong influence on tropical forest metabolism, carbon stocks, and ultimately the flux of carbon to the atmosphere. Satellite-based studies have suggested that Amazon forests green up during droughts because of increased sunlight, whereas field studies have reported increased tree mortality during severe droughts. In an effort to reconcile these apparently conflicting findings, we conducted an analysis of climate data, field measurements, and improved satellite-based measures of forest photosynthetic activity. Wet-season precipitation and plant-available water (PAW) decreased over the Amazon Basin from 1996−2005, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and air dryness (expressed as vapor pressure deficit, VPD) increased from 2002–2005. Using improved enhanced vegetation index (EVI) measurements (2000–2008), we show that gross primary productivity (expressed as EVI) declined with VPD and PAW in regions of sparse canopy cover across a wide range of environments for each year of the study. In densely forested areas, no climatic variable adequately explained the Basin-wide interannual variability of EVI. Based on a site-specific study, we show that monthly EVI was relatively insensitive to leaf area index (LAI) but correlated positively with leaf flushing and PAR measured in the field. These findings suggest that production of new leaves, even when unaccompanied by associated changes in LAI, could play an important role in Basin-wide interannual EVI variability. Because EVI variability was greatest in regions of lower PAW, we hypothesize that drought could increase EVI by synchronizing leaf flushing via its effects on leaf bud development. PMID:20679201

Climate variability controls on unsaturated water and chemical movement, High Plains aquifer, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurdak, J.J.; Hanson, R.T.; McMahon, P.B.; Bruce, B.W.; McCray, J.E.; Thyne, G.D.; Reedy, R.C.

2007-01-01

Responses in the vadose zone and groundwater to interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal climate variability have important implications for groundwater resource sustainability, yet they are poorly documented and not well understood in most aquifers of the USA. This investigation systematically examines the role of interannual to multidecadal climate variability on groundwater levels, deep infiltration (3-23 m) events, and downward displacement (>1 m) of chloride and nitrate reservoirs in thick (15-50 m) vadose zones across the regionally extensive High Plains aquifer. Such vadose zone responses are unexpected across much of the aquifer given a priori that unsaturated total-potential profiles indicate upward water movement from the water table toward the root zone, mean annual potential evapotranspiration exceeds mean annual precipitation, and millennia-scale evapoconcentration results in substantial vadose zone chloride and nitrate reservoirs. Using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to reconstruct precipitation and groundwater level time-series components, variability was identified in all time series as partially coincident with known climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10-25 yr) and the El Nin??o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-6 yr). Using these lag-correlated hydrologic time series, a new method is demonstrated to estimate climate-varying unsaturated water flux. The results suggest the importance of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on water-flux estimation in thick vadose zones and provide better understanding of the climate-induced transients responsible for the observed deep infiltration and chemical-mobilization events. Based on these results, we discuss implications for climate-related sustainability of the High Plains aquifer. ?? Soil Science Society of America.

Interannual Variability of the Tropical Water Cycle: Capabilities in the TRMM Era and Challenges for GPM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.

2003-01-01

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30" NE) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans, produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Robertson et al., [2001 GRL] for example, showed that substantial disagreement exists among contemporary satellite estimates of interannual variations in tropical rainfall that are associated with SST changes. Berg et al., [2002 J. Climate] have documented the distinct differences between precipitation structure over the eastern and western Pacific ITCZ and noted how various satellite precipitation algorithms may respond quite differently to ENSO modulations of these precipitation regimes. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and detail their impact on estimates of how ENSO events perturb the tropical rainfall. We will place these results in perspective by considering requirements for precipitation accuracy for global climate variability and change studies involving ENSO, monsoon dynamics and variations, and climate model improvement and validation. The discussion will conclude with an assessment of the implications of these findings for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) requirements.

Cold Regime Interannual Variability of Primary and Secondary Producer Community Composition in the Southeastern Bering Sea

PubMed Central

Stauffer, Beth A.; Miksis-Olds, Jennifer; Goes, Joaquim I.

2015-01-01

Variability of hydrographic conditions and primary and secondary productivity between cold and warm climatic regimes in the Bering Sea has been the subject of much study in recent years, while interannual variability within a single regime and across multiple trophic levels has been less well-documented. Measurements from an instrumented mooring on the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea were analyzed for the spring-to-summer transitions within the cold regime years of 2009–2012 to investigate the interannual variability of hydrographic conditions, primary producer biomass, and acoustically-derived secondary producer and consumer abundance and community structure. Hydrographic conditions in 2012 were significantly different than in 2009, 2010, and 2011, driven largely by increased ice extent and thickness, later ice retreat, and earlier stratification of the water column. Primary producer biomass was more tightly coupled to hydrographic conditions in 2012 than in 2009 or 2011, and shallow and mid-column phytoplankton blooms tended to occur independent of one another. There was a high degree of variability in the relationships between different classes of secondary producers and hydrographic conditions, evidence of significant intra-consumer interactions, and trade-offs between different consumer size classes in each year. Phytoplankton blooms stimulated different populations of secondary producers in each year, and summer consumer populations appeared to determine dominant populations in the subsequent spring. Overall, primary producers and secondary producers were more tightly coupled to each other and to hydrographic conditions in the coldest year compared to the warmer years. The highly variable nature of the interactions between the atmospherically-driven hydrographic environment, primary and secondary producers, and within food webs underscores the need to revisit how climatic regimes within the Bering Sea are defined and predicted to function given changing climate scenarios. PMID:26110822

Investigating the Interannual Variability of the Circulation and Water Mass Formation in the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, S. S.; Papadopoulos, V. P.; Denaxa, D.; Abualnaja, Y.

2014-12-01

The interannual variability of the circulation and water mass formation in the Red Sea is investigated with the use of a numerical model and the combination of satellite and in-situ observations. The response of Red Sea to the large-scale variability of atmospheric forcing is studied through a 30-years simulation experiment, using MICOM model. The modeling results demonstrate significant trends and variability that are mainly located in the central and northern parts of the basin. On the other hand, the exchange pattern between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean at the strait of Bab el Mandeb presents very weak interannual variability. The results verify the regularity of the water mass formation processes in the northern Red Sea but also show significant variability of the circulation and thermohaline conditions in the areas of formation. Enhanced water mass formation conditions are observed during specific years of the simulation (approximately five years apart). Analysis of recent warm and cold events in the northernmost part of the basin, based on a combination of atmospheric reanalysis results and oceanic satellite and in-situ observations, shows the importance of the cyclonic gyre that is prevailing in this part of the basin. This gyre can effectively influence the sea surface temperature (SST) and intensify or mitigate the winter effect of the atmospheric forcing. Upwelling induced by persistent periods of the gyre functioning drops the SST over the northernmost part of the Red Sea and can produce colder than normal winter SST even without extreme atmospheric forcing. These mechanisms are crucial for the formation of intermediate and deep water masses in the Red Sea and the strength of the subsequent thermohaline cells.

Variability of Springtime Transpacific Pollution Transport During 2000-2006: The INTEX-5 Mission in the Context of Previous Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pfister, G. G.; Emmons, L. K.; Edwards, D. P.; Arellano, A.; Sachse, G.; Campos, T.

2010-01-01

We analyze the transport of pollution across the Pacific during the NASA INTEX-B (Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment Part 8) campaign in spring 2006 and examine how this year compares to the time period for 2000 through 2006. In addition to aircraft measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) collected during INTEX-B, we include in this study multi-year satellite retrievals of CO from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument and simulations from the chemistry transport model MOZART-4. Model tracers are used to examine the contributions of different source regions and source types to pollution levels over the Pacific. Additional modeling studies are performed to separate the impacts of inter-annual variability in meteorology and .dynamics from changes in source strength. interannual variability in the tropospheric CO burden over the Pacific and the US as estimated from the MOPITT data range up to 7% and a somewhat smaller estimate (5%) is derived from the model. When keeping the emissions in the model constant between years, the year-to-year changes are reduced (2%), but show that in addition to changes in emissions, variable meteorological conditions also impact transpacific pollution transport. We estimate that about 113 of the variability in the tropospheric CO loading over the contiguous US is explained by changes in emissions and about 213 by changes in meteorology and transport. Biomass burning sources are found to be a larger driver for inter-annual variability in the CO loading compared to fossil and biofuel sources or photochemical CO production even though their absolute contributions are smaller. Source contribution analysis shows that the aircraft sampling during INTEX-B was fairly representative of the larger scale region, but with a slight bias towards higher influence from Asian contributions.

A Fiji multi-coral δ18O composite approach to obtaining a more accurate reconstruction of the last two-centuries of the ocean-climate variability in the South Pacific Convergence Zone region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dassié, Emilie P.; Linsley, Braddock K.; Corrège, Thierry; Wu, Henry C.; Lemley, Gavin M.; Howe, Steve; Cabioch, Guy

2014-12-01

The limited availability of oceanographic data in the tropical Pacific Ocean prior to the satellite era makes coral-based climate reconstructions a key tool for extending the instrumental record back in time, thereby providing a much needed test for climate models and projections. We have generated a unique regional network consisting of five Porites coral δ18O time series from different locations in the Fijian archipelago. Our results indicate that using a minimum of three Porites coral δ18O records from Fiji is statistically sufficient to obtain a reliable signal for climate reconstruction, and that application of an approach used in tree ring studies is a suitable tool to determine this number. The coral δ18O composite indicates that while sea surface temperature (SST) variability is the primary driver of seasonal δ18O variability in these Fiji corals, annual average coral δ18O is more closely correlated to sea surface salinity (SSS) as previously reported. Our results highlight the importance of water mass advection in controlling Fiji coral δ18O and salinity variability at interannual and decadal time scales despite being located in the heavy rainfall region of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The Fiji δ18O composite presents a secular freshening and warming trend since the 1850s coupled with changes in both interannual (IA) and decadal/interdecadal (D/I) variance. The changes in IA and D/I variance suggest a re-organization of climatic variability in the SPCZ region beginning in the late 1800s to period of a more dominant interannual variability, which could correspond to a southeast expansion of the SPCZ.

Sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability: insights from two Indian agro-ecoregions.

PubMed

Mondal, Pinki; Jain, Meha; DeFries, Ruth S; Galford, Gillian L; Small, Christopher

2015-01-15

Crop productivity in India varies greatly with inter-annual climate variability and is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall and temperature. The sensitivity of yields to future climate variability varies with crop type, access to irrigation and other biophysical and socio-economic factors. To better understand sensitivities to future climate, this study focuses on agro-ecological subregions in Central and Western India that span a range of crops, irrigation, biophysical conditions and socioeconomic characteristics. Climate variability is derived from remotely-sensed data products, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM - precipitation) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS - temperature). We examined green-leaf phenologies as proxy for crop productivity using the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 2000 to 2012. Using both monsoon and winter growing seasons, we assessed phenological sensitivity to inter-annual variability in precipitation and temperature patterns. Inter-annual EVI phenology anomalies ranged from -25% to 25%, with some highly anomalous values up to 200%. Monsoon crop phenology in the Central India site is highly sensitive to climate, especially the timing of the start and end of the monsoon and intensity of precipitation. In the Western India site, monsoon crop phenology is less sensitive to precipitation variability, yet shows considerable fluctuations in monsoon crop productivity across the years. Temperature is critically important for winter productivity across a range of crop and management types, such that irrigation might not provide a sufficient buffer against projected temperature increases. Better access to weather information and usage of climate-resilient crop types would play pivotal role in maintaining future productivity. Effective strategies to adapt to projected climate changes in the coming decades would also need to be tailored to regional biophysical and socio-economic conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Role of Low-Level, Terrain-Induced Jets in Rainfall Variability in Tigris Euphrates Headwaters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Evans, Jason; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability in the Tigris Euphrates headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, driven by the NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), has been implemented to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle East. The extended simulation period (1983 - 2013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability, and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R-2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R-2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRFs ability to resolve two low-level, terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in R-2: one parallel to the western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the east Turkish highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days, when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50 of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation.

The role of low-level terrain-induced jets in rainfall variability in Tigris-Euphrates Headwaters

PubMed Central

Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Evans, Jason; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2018-01-01

Rainfall variability in the Tigris-Euphrates Headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, we have implemented the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, driven by NCEP/DOE R2, to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle-East. The extended simulation period (1983–2013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRF’s ability to resolve two low-level terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in NCEP/DOE: one parallel to western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the East Turkish Highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days: when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50% of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation. PMID:29726552

Cold Regime interannual variability of primary and secondary producer community composition in the southeastern Bering Sea.

PubMed

Stauffer, Beth A; Miksis-Olds, Jennifer; Goes, Joaquim I

2015-01-01

Variability of hydrographic conditions and primary and secondary productivity between cold and warm climatic regimes in the Bering Sea has been the subject of much study in recent years, while interannual variability within a single regime and across multiple trophic levels has been less well-documented. Measurements from an instrumented mooring on the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea were analyzed for the spring-to-summer transitions within the cold regime years of 2009-2012 to investigate the interannual variability of hydrographic conditions, primary producer biomass, and acoustically-derived secondary producer and consumer abundance and community structure. Hydrographic conditions in 2012 were significantly different than in 2009, 2010, and 2011, driven largely by increased ice extent and thickness, later ice retreat, and earlier stratification of the water column. Primary producer biomass was more tightly coupled to hydrographic conditions in 2012 than in 2009 or 2011, and shallow and mid-column phytoplankton blooms tended to occur independent of one another. There was a high degree of variability in the relationships between different classes of secondary producers and hydrographic conditions, evidence of significant intra-consumer interactions, and trade-offs between different consumer size classes in each year. Phytoplankton blooms stimulated different populations of secondary producers in each year, and summer consumer populations appeared to determine dominant populations in the subsequent spring. Overall, primary producers and secondary producers were more tightly coupled to each other and to hydrographic conditions in the coldest year compared to the warmer years. The highly variable nature of the interactions between the atmospherically-driven hydrographic environment, primary and secondary producers, and within food webs underscores the need to revisit how climatic regimes within the Bering Sea are defined and predicted to function given changing climate scenarios.

The Role of Low-Level Terrain-Induced Jets in Rainfall Variability in Tigris-Euphrates Headwaters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Evans, Jason; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability in the Tigris-Euphrates headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, driven by the NCEPDOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), has been implemented to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle East. The extended simulation period (19832013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability, and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R-2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R-2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRFs ability to resolve two low-level, terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in R-2: one parallel to the western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the east Turkish highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days: when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50 of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation.

Zooplankton time-series in the Balearic Sea (Western Mediterranean): Variability during the decade 1994 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández de Puelles, Maria Luz; Alemany, Francisco; Jansá, Javier

2007-08-01

Studies of plankton time-series from the Balearic islands waters are presented for the past decade, with main emphasis on the variability of zooplankton and how it relates to the environment. The seasonal and interannual patterns of temperature, salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll concentration and zooplankton abundance are described with data obtained between 1994 and 2003. Samples were collected every 10 days at a monitoring station in the Mallorca channel, an area with marked hydrographic variability in the Western Mediterranean. Mesoscale variability was also assessed using data from monthly sampling survey carried out between 1994 and 1999 in a three station transect located in the same study area. The copepods were the most abundant group with three higher peaks (March, May and September) distinguished during the annual cycle and a clear coastal-offshore decreasing gradient. Analysis of the zooplankton community revealed two distinct periods: the mixing period during winter and early spring, where copepods, siphonophores and ostracods were most abundant and, the stratified period characterised by an increase of cladocerans and meroplankton abundances. Remarkable interannual zooplankton variability was observed in relation to hydrographic regime with higher abundances of main groups during cool years, when northern Mediterranean waters prevailed in the area. The warmer years showed the lowest zooplankton abundances, associated with the inflow of less saline and nutrient-depleted Atlantic Waters. Moreover, the correlation found between copepod abundance and large scale climatic factors (e.g., NAO) suggested that they act as main driver of the zooplankton variability. Therefore, the seasonal but particularly the interannual variation observed in plankton abundance and structure patterns of the Balearic Sea seems to be highly modulated by large-scale forcing and can be considered an ideal place where to investigate potential consequences of global climate change.

Post-Fire Recovery of Eco-Hydrologic Behavior Given Historic and Projected Climate Variability in California Mediterranean Type Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seaby, L. P.; Tague, C. L.; Hope, A. S.

2006-12-01

The Mediterranean type environments (MTEs) of California are characterized by a distinct wet and dry season and high variability in inter-annual climate. Water limitation in MTEs makes eco-hydrological processes highly sensitive to both climate variability and frequent fire disturbance. This research modeled post-fire eco- hydrologic behavior under historical and moderate and extreme scenarios of future climate in a semi-arid chaparral dominated southern California MTE. We used a physically-based, spatially-distributed, eco- hydrological model (RHESSys - Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System), to capture linkages between water and vegetation response to the combined effects of fire and historic and future climate variability. We found post-fire eco-hydrologic behavior to be strongly influenced by the episodic nature of MTE climate, which intensifies under projected climate change. Higher rates of post-fire net primary productivity were found under moderate climate change, while more extreme climate change produced water stressed conditions which were less favorable for vegetation productivity. Precipitation variability in the historic record follows the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and these inter-annual climate characteristics intensify under climate change. Inter-annual variation in streamflow follows these precipitation patterns. Post-fire streamflow and carbon cycling trajectories are strongly dependent on climate characteristics during the first 5 years following fire, and historic intra-climate variability during this period tends to overwhelm longer term trends and variation that might be attributable to climate change. Results have implications for water resource availability, vegetation type conversion from shrubs to grassland, and changes in ecosystem structure and function.

Snowpack Variation and Hydrologic Impacts across the Middle East and North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, D. A.; Ward, M. N.

2017-12-01

The Middle East is a region historically sensitive to climate variability and change, and contains snowpacks that have been shown to be important inputs to key regional water resources, including the Tigris-Euphrates river system. Focusing on the Middle East (and the smaller snowpacks of northwestern Africa), this presentation aims to (i) quantify each year's snowpack development and recession over recent decades, highlighting interannual to decadal variability, and (ii) advance understanding on the connection between the snowpack variations and aspects of regional hydrology. The presentation draws on satellite-based products, station data, and model reanalyses. Variation is summarized using space-time statistical techniques, as well as simpler regional indices: Northwestern Iran / Southern Caucasus (NWIC, includes Zagros Mountains); Eastern Turkey (ETKY, includes Taurus Mountains); and smaller scale indices for Lebanon and the Atlas Mountains. The Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System archives daily snow cover extent at 24 km resolution for 1999-present (primarily from visible satellite imagery). These data show that for both NWIC and ETKY, the mean snow extent peaks in late January with substantial coverage ( 300,000 km2 in each region), contracting to near zero by late June. A very large mid-winter interannual variance is also shown, implying substantial variation in hydrologic impacts during spring melt. Variability and decadal trends are compared with station snow depth reports (Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily). Strong agreement gives confidence in data quality, as well as, indicating high covariation of depth and extent. The connection with hydrologic impacts is investigated using reanalysis products, including the Global Land Data Assimilation System V2, which for the Middle East, shows broad agreement with observed maximum snow extent and spring retreat. The connections internal to the reanalysis between snow cover, melt and runoff are quantified, delivering insights into the mechanisms of variability and change in the regional water resources and their dependence on snowpack. Specific case study melt seasons highlight the ways in which snowpack and seasonal climate combine to produce changes in magnitude and timing of runoff during late winter and spring.

Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: The Upper Indus Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, N.; Fowler, H. J.; Blenkinsop, S.; Burton, A.; Kilsby, C. G.; Archer, D. R.; Harpham, C.; Hashmi, M. Z.

2014-09-01

Assessing local climate change impacts requires downscaling from Global Climate Model simulations. Here, a stochastic rainfall model (RainSim) combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator (CRU WG) have been successfully applied in a semi-arid mountain climate, for part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), for point stations at a daily time-step to explore climate change impacts. Validation of the simulated time-series against observations (1961-1990) demonstrated the models' skill in reproducing climatological means of core variables with monthly RMSE of <2.0 mm for precipitation and ⩽0.4 °C for mean temperature and daily temperature range. This level of performance is impressive given complexity of climate processes operating in this mountainous context at the boundary between monsoonal and mid-latitude (westerly) weather systems. Of equal importance the model captures well the observed interannual variability as quantified by the first and last decile of 30-year climatic periods. Differences between a control (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) regional climate model (RCM) time-slice experiment were then used to provide change factors which could be applied within the rainfall and weather models to produce perturbed ‘future' weather time-series. These project year-round increases in precipitation (maximum seasonal mean change:+27%, annual mean change: +18%) with increased intensity in the wettest months (February, March, April) and year-round increases in mean temperature (annual mean +4.8 °C). Climatic constraints on the productivity of natural resource-dependent systems were also assessed using relevant indices from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) and indicate potential future risk to water resources and local agriculture. However, the uniformity of projected temperature increases is in stark contrast to recent seasonally asymmetrical trends in observations, so an alternative scenario of extrapolated trends was also explored. We conclude that interannual variability in climate will continue to have the dominant impact on water resources management whichever trajectory is followed. This demonstrates the need for sophisticated downscaling methods which can evaluate changes in variability and sequencing of events to explore climate change impacts in this region.

Factors influencing inter-annual variability of growing season optimum gross primary production and ecosystem respiration in a semi-arid savanna ecosystem: A case study of Skukuza, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brummer, C.; Mukwashi, K.; Falge, E. M.; Mudau, A.; Odipo, V.; Schmullius, C.; Lenfers, U.; Thiel-Clemen, T.; Thomas, C. K.; Kutsch, W. L.; Scholes, R. J.; Berger, C.

2016-12-01

The goal of this study was to improve understanding of factors affecting temporal carbon metabolism at a natural savanna site near Skukuza, South Africa. We investigated inter-annual variability of optimum gross primary production (GPPopt) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) from 2000-2014. GPPopt refers to maximum total amount of carbon fixed by plants per unit area and time. Carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes have been measured continuously at a 16 m tower at Skukuza using eddy covariance technique since 2000. The GPPopt and Reco parameters were derived from modelled light response curve fits of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for summer `vegetative' periods. Hydro-ecological years (HEY) were stratified into functional seasons and data were classified into three soil moisture (SM) classes, i.e. wet (SM ≥ 9%), drying (6%< SM ≤9%) and dry periods (SM ≤ 6%), in order to separate biologically functional periods from periods of water constraints. For each SM class data were sub-classified into four air temperature (Tair) classes to separate Tair effects on NEE response to light. Wet periods recorded higher GPPopt and Reco estimates compared to drying periods. The curve fits for dry periods were not significant. We found high variability of GPPopt and Reco from `summer' to `summer' of each HEY. Wet period GPPopt of 2008/2009 and 2010/2011 were highest with 29.2±1.8 and 32.7±1.6 µmol CO2 m-2s-1, respectively, whilst 2006/2007 recorded the lowest GPPopt of 6.5±1.3 µmol CO2 m-2s-1 for Tair class `20°Cair≤25°C'. A similar pattern for Reco trend was observed. We also investigated the influence of rainfall distribution and amount, vapour pressure deficit, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) on the GPPopt and Reco trends and found a high correlation between GPPopt and variables NDVI and EVI. Our findings have implications in understanding causality and temporal dynamics of GPPopt and Reco in precipitation pulse-driven semi-arid ecosystems.

Identification of "ever-cropped" land (1984-2010) using Landsat annual maximum NDVI image composites: Southwestern Kansas case study.

PubMed

Maxwell, Susan K; Sylvester, Kenneth M

2012-06-01

A time series of 230 intra- and inter-annual Landsat Thematic Mapper images was used to identify land that was ever cropped during the years 1984 through 2010 for a five county region in southwestern Kansas. Annual maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image composites (NDVI(ann-max)) were used to evaluate the inter-annual dynamics of cropped and non-cropped land. Three feature images were derived from the 27-year NDVI(ann-max) image time series and used in the classification: 1) maximum NDVI value that occurred over the entire 27 year time span (NDVI(max)), 2) standard deviation of the annual maximum NDVI values for all years (NDVI(sd)), and 3) standard deviation of the annual maximum NDVI values for years 1984-1986 (NDVI(sd84-86)) to improve Conservation Reserve Program land discrimination.Results of the classification were compared to three reference data sets: County-level USDA Census records (1982-2007) and two digital land cover maps (Kansas 2005 and USGS Trends Program maps (1986-2000)). Area of ever-cropped land for the five counties was on average 11.8 % higher than the area estimated from Census records. Overall agreement between the ever-cropped land map and the 2005 Kansas map was 91.9% and 97.2% for the Trends maps. Converting the intra-annual Landsat data set to a single annual maximum NDVI image composite considerably reduced the data set size, eliminated clouds and cloud-shadow affects, yet maintained information important for discriminating cropped land. Our results suggest that Landsat annual maximum NDVI image composites will be useful for characterizing land use and land cover change for many applications.

Quantifying Interannual Variability for Photovoltaic Systems in PVWatts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ryberg, David Severin; Freeman, Janine; Blair, Nate

2015-10-01

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) PVWatts is a relatively simple tool used by industry and individuals alike to easily estimate the amount of energy a photovoltaic (PV) system will produce throughout the course of a typical year. PVWatts Version 5 has previously been shown to be able to reasonably represent an operating system's output when provided with concurrent weather data, however this type of data is not available when estimating system output during future time frames. For this purpose PVWatts uses weather data from typical meteorological year (TMY) datasets which are available on the NREL website. The TMY filesmore » represent a statistically 'typical' year which by definition excludes anomalous weather patterns and as a result may not provide sufficient quantification of project risk to the financial community. It was therefore desired to quantify the interannual variability associated with TMY files in order to improve the understanding of risk associated with these projects. To begin to understand the interannual variability of a PV project, we simulated two archetypal PV system designs, which are common in the PV industry, in PVWatts using the NSRDB's 1961-1990 historical dataset. This dataset contains measured hourly weather data and spans the thirty years from 1961-1990 for 239 locations in the United States. To note, this historical dataset was used to compose the TMY2 dataset. Using the results of these simulations we computed several statistical metrics which may be of interest to the financial community and normalized the results with respect to the TMY energy prediction at each location, so that these results could be easily translated to similar systems. This report briefly describes the simulation process used and the statistical methodology employed for this project, but otherwise focuses mainly on a sample of our results. A short discussion of these results is also provided. It is our hope that this quantification of the interannual variability of PV systems will provide a starting point for variability considerations in future PV system designs and investigations. however this type of data is not available when estimating system output during future time frames.« less

Seasonal and interannual variability of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks as determined from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis: Part II variability associated with ENSO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tomita, Tomohiko; Yanai, Michio

The link between the Asian monsoon and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been demonstrated by a number of studies. This study examines two ENSO withdrawal periods and discusses if the Asian monsoon played a role in the differences between them. The 1986 event occurred in the later half of 1986 and retreated in 1988. The 1951 and 1991 events were similar to each other and seemed to continue to the second year after onset and not to have the clear La Nina phase after the events. In the central and eastern Pacific, three variables progress in phase as themore » ENSO cycle: sea surface temperature (SST), heat source (Q1), and divergence. Correlation coefficients were calculated and examined with the mean SST on the equator and with the standard deviation of the interannual components of SST. In the central and eastern Pacific, the standard deviation is large and three correlation coefficients are large (over 0.6). Strong air-sea interaction associated with ENSO cycle is deduced. In the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific, the correlation coefficients with SST become small rapidly, while the correlation coefficient between Q1 and the divergence is still large. The interannual variability of SSt may not be crucial for those of Q1 and of the divergence in this region because of the potential to generate well organized convection through the high mean SST. This suggests that various factors, such as effects from mid-latitudes, may modify the interannual variability in the region. To examine the effects of the Asian winter monsoon, the anomalous wind field at 850 hPa was investigated. The conditions of the Asian winter monsoon were quite different between the withdrawal periods in the 1986 and 1991 ENSO events. The Asian winter monsoon seems to be a factor to modify the ENSO cycle, especially in the retreat periods. In addition, the SST from the tropical Indian Ocean to western Pacific may be important for the modulation of the ENSO/monsoon system. 9 refs., 10 figs.« less

Temporal variability of the NPP-GPP ratio at seasonal and interannual time scales in a temperate beech forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campioli, M.; Gielen, B.; Göckede, M.; Papale, D.; Bouriaud, O.; Granier, A.

2011-09-01

The allocation of carbon (C) taken up by the tree canopy for respiration and production of tree organs with different construction and maintenance costs, life span and decomposition rate, crucially affects the residence time of C in forests and their C cycling rate. The carbon-use efficiency, or ratio between net primary production (NPP) and gross primary production (GPP), represents a convenient way to analyse the C allocation at the stand level. In this study, we extend the current knowledge on the NPP-GPP ratio in forests by assessing the temporal variability of the NPP-GPP ratio at interannual (for 8 years) and seasonal (for 1 year) scales for a young temperate beech stand, reporting dynamics for both leaves and woody organs, in particular stems. NPP was determined with biometric methods/litter traps, whereas the GPP was estimated via the eddy covariance micrometeorological technique. The interannual variability of the proportion of C allocated to leaf NPP, wood NPP and leaf plus wood NPP (on average 11% yr-1, 29% yr-1 and 39% yr-1, respectively) was significant among years with up to 12% yr-1 variation in NPP-GPP ratio. Studies focusing on the comparison of NPP-GPP ratio among forests and models using fixed allocation schemes should take into account the possibility of such relevant interannual variability. Multiple linear regressions indicated that the NPP-GPP ratio of leaves and wood significantly correlated with environmental conditions. Previous year drought and air temperature explained about half of the NPP-GPP variability of leaves and wood, respectively, whereas the NPP-GPP ratio was not decreased by severe drought, with large NPP-GPP ratio on 2003 due mainly to low GPP. During the period between early May and mid June, the majority of GPP was allocated to leaf and stem NPP, whereas these sinks were of little importance later on. Improved estimation of seasonal GPP and of the contribution of previous-year reserves to stem growth, as well as reduction of data uncertainty, will be of relevance to increase the accuracy of the seasonal assessment of the NPP-GPP ratio in forests.

Interannual variability of Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange and its component fluxes in a subalpine Mediterranean ecosystem (SE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chamizo, Sonia; Serrano-Ortiz, Penélope; Sánchez-Cañete, Enrique P.; Domingo, Francisco; Arnau-Rosalén, Eva; Oyonarte, Cecilio; Pérez-Priego, Óscar; López-Ballesteros, Ana; Kowalski, Andrew S.

2015-04-01

Recent decades under climate change have seen increasing interest in quantifying the carbon (C) balance of different terrestrial ecosystems, and their behavior as sources or sinks of C. Both CO2 exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere and identification of its drivers are key to understanding land-surface feedbacks to climate change. The eddy covariance (EC) technique allows measurements of net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) from short to long time scales. In addition, flux partitioning models can extract the components of net CO2 fluxes, including both biological processes of photosynthesis or gross primary production (GPP) and respiration (Reco), and also abiotic drivers like subsoil CO2 ventilation (VE), which is of particular relevance in semiarid environments. The importance of abiotic processes together with the strong interannual variability of precipitation, which strongly affects CO2 fluxes, complicates the accurate characterization of the C balance in semiarid landscapes. In this study, we examine 10 years of interannual variability of NEE and its components at a subalpine karstic plateau, El Llano de los Juanes, in the Sierra de Gádor (Almería, SE Spain). Results show annual NEE ranging from 55 g C m-2 (net emission) to -54 g C m-2 (net uptake). Among C flux components, GPP was the greatest contributing 42-57% of summed component magnitudes, while contributions by Reco and VE ranged from 27 to 46% and from 3 to 18%, respectively. Annual precipitation during the studied period exhibited high interannual variability, ranging from 210 mm to 1374 mm. Annual precipitation explained 50% of the variance in Reco, 59% of that in GPP, and 56% for VE. While Reco and GPP were positively correlated with annual precipitation (correlation coefficient, R, of 0.71 and 0.77, respectively), VE showed negative correlation with this driver (R = -0.74). During the driest year (2004-2005), annual GPP and Reco reached their lowest values, while contribution of VE to annual NEE reached its highest value. There were also positive correlations with annual evapotranspiration (R = 0.71 for Reco and 0.64 for GPP), which explained 51% and 42% of the variance in Reco and GPP, respectively. Despite the variability in CO2 fluxes depending on the year, we can conclude that this ecosystem is approximately carbon neutral over a decade. Our results highlight the importance of considering interannual variability in CO2 fluxes, and also the need to account for abiotic contributions to the C balance in semiarid ecosystems, especially during dry years, to better predict the roles of these ecosystems in the global C balance.

Asymmetric variations in the tropical ascending branches of Hadley circulations and the associated mechanisms and effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Bo

2018-03-01

This study investigates the variations in the tropical ascending branches (TABs) of Hadley circulations (HCs) during past decades, using a variety of reanalysis datasets. The northern tropical ascending branch (NTAB) and the southern tropical ascending branch (STAB), which are defined as the ascending branches of the Northern Hemisphere HC and Southern Hemisphere HC, respectively, are identified and analyzed regarding their trends and variability. The reanalysis datasets consistently show a persistent increase in STAB during past decades, whereas they show less consistency in NTAB regarding its decadalto multidecadal variability, which generally features a decreasing trend. These asymmetric trends in STAB and NTAB are attributed to asymmetric trends in the tropical SSTs. The relationship between STAB/NTAB and tropical SSTs is further examined regarding their interannual and decadal- to multidecadal variability. On the interannual time scale, the STAB and NTAB are essentially modulated by the eastern-Pacific type of ENSO, with a strengthened (weakened) STAB (NTAB) under an El Niño condition. On the decadal- to multidecadal time scale, the variability of STAB and NTAB is closely related to the southern tropical SSTs and the meridional asymmetry of global tropical SSTs, respectively. The tropical eastern Pacific SSTs (southern tropical SSTs) dominate the tropical SST-NTAB/STAB relationship on the interannual (decadal- to multidecadal) scale, whereas the NTAB is a passive factor in this relationship. Moreover, a cross-hemispheric relationship between the NTAB/STAB and the HC upper-level meridional winds is revealed.

Interannual and cyclone-driven variability in phytoplankton communities of a tropical coastal lagoon.

PubMed

Srichandan, Suchismita; Kim, Ji Yoon; Kumar, Abhishek; Mishra, Deepak R; Bhadury, Punyasloke; Muduli, Pradipta R; Pattnaik, Ajit K; Rastogi, Gurdeep

2015-12-15

One of the main challenges in phytoplankton ecology is to understand their variability at different spatiotemporal scales. We investigated the interannual and cyclone-derived variability in phytoplankton communities of Chilika, the largest tropical coastal lagoon in Asia and the underlying mechanisms in relation to environmental forcing. Between July 2012 and June 2013, Cyanophyta were most prolific in freshwater northern region of the lagoon. A category-5 very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) Phailin struck the lagoon on 12th October 2013 and introduced additional variability into the hydrology and phytoplankton communities. Freshwater Cyanophyta further expanded their territory and occupied the northern as well as central region of the lagoon. Satellite remote sensing imagery revealed that the phytoplankton biomass did not change much due to high turbidity prevailing in the lagoon after Phailin. Modeling analysis of species-salinity relationship identified specific responses of phytoplankton taxa to the different salinity regime of lagoon. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trace gas variability within the Asian monsoon anticyclone on intraseasonal and interannual timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nützel, Matthias; Dameris, Martin; Fierli, Federico; Stiller, Gabriele; Garny, Hella; Jöckel, Patrick

2016-04-01

The Asian monsoon and the associated monsoon anticyclone have the potential of substantially influencing the composition of the UTLS (upper troposphere/lower stratosphere) and hence global climate. Here we study the variability of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone in the UTLS on intraseasonal and interannual timescales using results from long term simulations performed with the CCM EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). In particular, we focus on specified dynamics simulations (Newtonian relaxation to ERA-Interim data) covering the period 1980-2013, which have been performed within the ESCiMo (Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling) project (Jöckel et al., GMDD, 2015). Our main focus lies on variability of the anticyclone's strength (in terms of potential vorticity, geopotential and circulation) and variability in trace gas signatures (O3, H2O) within the anticyclone. To support our findings, we also include observations from satellites (MIPAS, MLS). Our work is linked to the EU StratoClim campaign in 2016.

Measurements of the earth radiation budget from satellites during the first GARP global experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vonder Haar, T. H.; Campbell, G. G.; Smith, E. A.; Arking, A.; Coulson, K.; Hickey, J.; House, F.; Ingersoll, A.; Jacobowitz, H.; Smith, L.

1981-01-01

Radiation budget data (which will aid in climate model development) and solar constant measurements (both to be used for the study of long term climate change and interannual seasonal weather variability) are presented, obtained during Nimbus-6 and Nimbus-7 satellite flights, using wide-field-of-view, scanner, and black cavity detectors. Data on the solar constant, described as a function of the date of measurement, are given. The unweighed mean amounts to 1377 + or - 20 per sq Wm, with a standard deviation of 8 per sq Wm. The new solar data are combined with earlier measurements, and it is suggested that the total absolute energy output of the sun is a minimum at 'solar maximum' and vice versa. Attention is given to the measurements of the net radiation budget, the planetary albedo, and the infrared radiant exitance. The annual and semiannual cycles of normal variability explain most of the variance of energy exchange between the earth and space. Examination of separate ocean and atmospheric energy budgets implies a net continent-ocean region energy exchange.

Interannual variability and climatic noise in satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Short, D. A.; Cahalan, R. F.

1983-01-01

Upwelling-IR observations of the North Pacific by polar orbiters NOAA 3, 4, 5, and 6 and TIROS-N from 1974 to 1981 are analyzed statistically in terms of interannual variability (IAV) in monthly averages and climatic noise due to short-term weather fluctuations. It is found that although the daily variance in the observations is the same in summer and winter months, and although IAV in winter is smaller than that in summer, the climatic noise in winter is so much smaller that a greater fraction of winter anomalies are statistically significant. The smaller winter climatic noise level is shown to be due to shorter autocorrelation times. It is demonstrated that increasing averaging area does not reduce the climatic noise level, suggesting that continuing collection of high-resolution satellite IR data on a global basis is necessary if better models of short-term variability are to be constructed.

Disruptions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections by the Madden–Julian Oscillation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoell, Andrew; Barlow, Mathew; Wheeler, Mathew; Funk, Christopher C.

2014-01-01

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual variability, with global impacts on weather and climate that have seasonal predictability. Research on the link between interannual ENSO variability and the leading mode of intraseasonal variability, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), has focused mainly on the role of MJO initiating or terminating ENSO. We use observational analysis and modeling to show that the MJO has an important simultaneous link to ENSO: strong MJO activity significantly weakens the atmospheric branch of ENSO. For weak MJO conditions relative to strong MJO conditions, the average magnitude of ENSO-associated tropical precipitation anomalies increases by 63%, and the strength of hemispheric teleconnections increases by 58%. Since the MJO has predictability beyond three weeks, the relationships shown here suggest that there may be subseasonal predictability of the ENSO teleconnections to continental circulation and precipitation.

North American west coast summer low cloudiness: Broadscale variability associated with sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Rachel E.; Gershunov, Alexander; Iacobellis, Sam F.; Cayan, Daniel R.

2014-05-01

Six decades of observations at 20 coastal airports, from Alaska to southern California, reveal coherent interannual to interdecadal variation of coastal low cloudiness (CLC) from summer to summer over this broad region. The leading mode of CLC variability represents coherent variation, accounting for nearly 40% of the total CLC variance spanning 1950-2012. This leading mode and the majority of individual airports exhibit decreased low cloudiness from the earlier to the later part of the record. Exploring climatic controls on CLC, we identify North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, largely in the form of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as well correlated with, and evidently helping to organize, the coherent patterns of summer coastal cloud variability. Links from the PDO to summer CLC appear a few months in advance of the summer. These associations hold up consistently in interannual and interdecadal frequencies.

Evaluating climate change impacts on streamflow variability based on a multisite multivariate GCM downscaling method in the Jing River of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhi; Jin, Jiming

2017-11-01

Projected hydrological variability is important for future resource and hazard management of water supplies because changes in hydrological variability can cause more disasters than changes in the mean state. However, climate change scenarios downscaled from Earth System Models (ESMs) at single sites cannot meet the requirements of distributed hydrologic models for simulating hydrological variability. This study developed multisite multivariate climate change scenarios via three steps: (i) spatial downscaling of ESMs using a transfer function method, (ii) temporal downscaling of ESMs using a single-site weather generator, and (iii) reconstruction of spatiotemporal correlations using a distribution-free shuffle procedure. Multisite precipitation and temperature change scenarios for 2011-2040 were generated from five ESMs under four representative concentration pathways to project changes in streamflow variability using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the Jing River, China. The correlation reconstruction method performed realistically for intersite and intervariable correlation reproduction and hydrological modeling. The SWAT model was found to be well calibrated with monthly streamflow with a model efficiency coefficient of 0.78. It was projected that the annual mean precipitation would not change, while the mean maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly by 1.6 ± 0.3 and 1.3 ± 0.2 °C; the variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 were 1.15 ± 0.13 for precipitation, 1.15 ± 0.14 for mean maximum temperature, and 1.04 ± 0.10 for mean minimum temperature. A warmer climate was predicted for the flood season, while the dry season was projected to become wetter and warmer; the findings indicated that the intra-annual and interannual variations in the future climate would be greater than in the current climate. The total annual streamflow was found to change insignificantly but its variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 increased by 1.25 ± 0.55. Streamflow variability was predicted to become greater over most months on the seasonal scale because of the increased monthly maximum streamflow and decreased monthly minimum streamflow. The increase in streamflow variability was attributed mainly to larger positive contributions from increased precipitation variances rather than negative contributions from increased mean temperatures.

Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, Scott; Colman, Rob

2006-02-01

Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial “ wings” in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit “ENSO-like” decadal patterns. Analytic results are derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales. In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited. At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency (reddens the spectrum) of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial counterpart. At low frequencies, dissipation acts as an additional low pass filter that becomes more effective, as latitude increases. At the same time, ENSO-driven off-equatorial surface heating anomalies drive mixed layer temperature responses in both hemispheres. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of surface heat fluxes by the surface mixed layer act to low pass filter the ENSO-forcing. The resulting off-equatorial variability is therefore more coherent with low pass filtered (decadal) ENSO indices [e.g. NINO3 sea-surface temperature (SST)] than with unfiltered ENSO indices. Consequently large correlations between variability and NINO3 extend further poleward on decadal time-scales than they do on interannual time-scales. This explains why decadal ENSO-like patterns have a broader meridional structure than their interannual counterparts. This difference in appearance can occur even if ENSO indices do not have any predictability beyond interannual time-scales. The wings around 15-20°S, and sub-surface variability at many other locations are predictable on interannual and multi-year time-scales. This includes westward propagating internal RWs within about 25° of the equator. The slowest of these take up to 4 years to reach the western boundary. This sub-surface predictability has significant oceanographic interest. However, it is linked to only low levels of SST variability. Consequently, extrapolation of delayed action oscillator theory to decadal time-scales might not be justified.

Monsoon-driven variability in the southern Red Sea and the exchange with the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, S. S.; Papadopoulos, V. P.; Abualnaja, Y.; Nenes, A.; Hoteit, I.

2016-02-01

Although progress has been achieved in describing and understanding the mean state and seasonal cycle of the Red Sea dynamics, their interannual variability is not yet well evaluated and explained. The thermohaline characteristics and the circulation patterns present strong variability at various time scales and are affected by the strong and variable atmospheric forcing and the exchange with the Indian Ocean and the gulfs located at the northern end of the basin. Sea surface temperature time-series, derived from satellite observations, show considerable trends and interannual variations. The spatial variability pattern is very diverse, especially in the north-south direction. The southern part of the Red Sea is significantly influenced by the Indian Monsoon variability that affects the sea surface temperature through the surface fluxes and the circulation patterns. This variability has also a strong impact on the lateral fluxes and the exchange with the Indian Ocean through the strait of Bab el Mandeb. During summer, there is a reversal of the surface flow and an intermediate intrusion of a relatively cold and fresh water mass. This water originates from the Gulf of Aden (the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water - GAIW), is identified in the southern part of the basin and spreads northward along the eastern Red Sea boundary to approximately 24°N and carried across the Red Sea by basin-size eddies. The GAIW intrusion plays an important role in the heat and freshwater budget of the southern Red Sea, especially in summer, impacting the thermohaline characteristics of the region. It is a permanent feature of the summer exchange flow but it exhibits significant variation from year to year. The intrusion is controlled by a monsoon-driven pressure gradient in the two ends of the strait and thus monsoon interannual variability can laterally impose its signal to the southern Red Sea thermohaline patterns.

Reconstructing the spatio-temporal variability of the southwestern Pacific salinity front from coral d18O records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasson, A. E. A.; Dassie, E. P.; Khodri, M.; Linsley, B. K.

2016-12-01

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a major atmospheric feature of the southern hemisphere. It is a low atmospheric convergence band associated with intense precipitations. Its position and intensity responds to global changes but also modulates regional weather patterns. Interannual to long-term SPCZ modifications result in extreme events such as severe droughts or flooding with profound socio-economic consequences. The SPCZ oceanic counterpart is a large body of fresh water (SSS<34.5 pss) extending southeast from the Maritime Continent to the dateline. This freshpool is separated from the high-salinity waters of the South Pacific gyre to the west by a steep salinity front. Various studies have shown a freshening of the freshpool and its southeastward expansion since the 1950s, modulated by interannual to interdecadal variability (Cravatte et al., 2009). The scarcity of traditional SSS measurements limits our ability to describe accurately this variability. This study validates the use of coral d18O as a proxy for the reconstruction of SSS over the last 200 years. Derived SSS is validated against insitu data at 3 different locations along the SSS front (Fiji, Tonga and Rarotonga Islands). This new dataset enables us to investigate the spatio-temporal variations of the SSS front prior to the instrumental data. Two robust modes of variability are present in the reconstructed SSS datasets: interannual variability and a secular trend. The reconstructed SSS variability follows the major El Niño Southern Oscillation indices. The relative SSS anomalies at each site provide information on the possible strength of the captured El Niño events. The three sites present secular trends toward fresher conditions. Furthermore, the role of atmospheric freshwater fluxes on SSS variability is evaluated by comparing reconstructed SSS to available historical rain gauge data. Results highlight the role of both atmospheric freshwater fluxes and ocean dynamics on SSS variability.

Interannual Variability of Tropical Rainfall as Seen From TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.

2005-01-01

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Version 5 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and examine changes in new TRMM Version 6 retrievals. To place these results in a tropical water balance perspective we also examine interannual variations in evaporation over the tropical oceans made from TRMM and SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) measurements of surface winds and humidity. Evaporation estimates from reanalysis and several global model experiments will also be compared to the TRMM findings and evaluated for consistency. The ability to detect regional shifts in freshwater flux over the oceans (equivalently, integrated moisture convergence) and moisture transport will be discussed.

Interannual variability in the gravity wave drag - vertical coupling and possible climate links

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šácha, Petr; Miksovsky, Jiri; Pisoft, Petr

2018-05-01

Gravity wave drag (GWD) is an important driver of the middle atmospheric dynamics. However, there are almost no observational constraints on its strength and distribution (especially horizontal). In this study we analyze orographic GWD (OGWD) output from Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model simulation with specified dynamics (CMAM-sd) to illustrate the interannual variability in the OGWD distribution at particular pressure levels in the stratosphere and its relation to major climate oscillations. We have found significant changes in the OGWD distribution and strength depending on the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The OGWD variability is shown to be induced by lower-tropospheric wind variations to a large extent, and there is also significant variability detected in near-surface momentum fluxes. We argue that the orographic gravity waves (OGWs) and gravity waves (GWs) in general can be a quick mediator of the tropospheric variability into the stratosphere as the modifications of the OGWD distribution can result in different impacts on the stratospheric dynamics during different phases of the studied climate oscillations.

Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, R. L.; Del Genio, A. D.

1994-01-01

Simulations of natural variability by two general circulation models (GCMs) are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a 'red' spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone.

Interannual Variation of Sea Level in the South Atlantic Based on Satellite Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grodsky, S. A.; Carton, J. A.

2006-07-01

13 years of altimeter month ly sea level ar e used to explore interannual variability of the South Atlantic. The strongest v ariability outside the eastern and western boundaries is conf ined to a relatively narrow zonally oriented band b etw een 35°S and 25°S, the Agulhas eddy corridor. On th eir way across th e South Atlantic th e Agulh as eddies g ain energy on the southern flank of the eddy corridor via baro tropic conversions by deceler ating the South Atlan tic Curren t. On interannual time scales the sea level in the corridor fluctu ates out of phase in the w est and east r evealing noticeab le v ariations of 10 cm amp litude at 4 to 5 year periods.

Chlorophyll a reconstruction from in situ measurements: 1. Method description

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fründt, B.; Dippner, J. W.; Waniek, J. J.

2015-02-01

Understanding the development of primary production is essential for projections of the global carbon cycle in the context of climate change. A chlorophyll a hindcast that serves as a primary production indicator was obtained by fitting in situ measurements of nitrate, chlorophyll a, and temperature. The resulting fitting functions were adapted to a modeled temperature field. The method was applied to observations from the Madeira Basin, in the northeastern part of the oligotrophic North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre and yielded a chlorophyll a field from 1989 to 2008 with a monthly resolution validated with remotely measured surface chlorophyll a data by SeaWiFS. The chlorophyll a hindcast determined with our method resolved the seasonal and interannual variability in the phytoplankton biomass of the euphotic zone as well as the deep chlorophyll maximum. Moreover, it will allow estimation of carbon uptake over long time scales.

The seasonal cycle revisited: interannual variation and ecosystem consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertram, Douglas F.; Mackas, David L.; McKinnell, Stewart M.

The annual seasonal cycle accounts for much of the total temporal variability of mid- and high-latitude marine ecosystems. Although the general pattern of the seasons repeats each year, climatic variability of the atmosphere and the ocean produce detectable changes in intensity and onset timing. We use a combination of time series data from oceanographic, zooplankton and seabird breeding data to ask if and how these variations in the timing of the spring growing season affect marine populations. For the physical environment, we develop an annual index of spring timing by fitting a non-linear 2-parameter periodic function to the average weekly SST data observed in British Columbia from 1 January to the end of August each year. For each year, the phase parameter describes the timing of seasonal warming (the timing index) and the amplitude parameter describes the magnitude of the temperature increase between the fitted winter minimum and summer maximum. For the zooplankton, which have annual and strongly synchronous cycles of biomass, productivity, and developmental sequence, we use copepodite stage composition to index the timing of the annual maximum. For seabirds, we examine (1975-1999) the timing of hatching, nestling growth performance, and diet for four species of alcids at Triangle Island, British Columbia's largest seabird colony and the world's largest population of the planktivorous Cassin's auklet. Temperature, zooplankton, and seabirds have all shown recent decadal trends toward ‘earlier spring’, but the magnitudes of the timing perturbations have differed from variable to variable and from year to year. Recent (1996-1999) extreme interannual variation in spring timing and April SST helped to facilitate a mechanistic investigation of oceanographic features that affect the reproductive performance of seabirds. Our results demonstrate a significant negative relationship between the annual spring timing index (and April mean SST) and nestling growth rates for both Cassin's auklet and rhinoceros auklet. Nestling growth rates were significantly lower in early, warm years. We demonstrate that low growth rates of Cassin's auklet occurred when copepod composition in nestling diet was low overall and copepods were scarce or absent in samples collected later in the season. We propose that when spring is early and warm, the duration of overlap of seabird breeding and copepod availability in surface waters becomes reduced, effectively creating a seasonal mismatch of prey and predator populations. Such a mismatch could explain the reduced reproductive performance of seabirds compared to years when spring was later and colder. The relationships we develop here can be used as simple predictive models to examine the effects of ocean climate change on seabird reproductive performance within our region.

Parameter optimisation for a better representation of drought by LSMs: inverse modelling vs. sequential data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewaele, Hélène; Munier, Simon; Albergel, Clément; Planque, Carole; Laanaia, Nabil; Carrer, Dominique; Calvet, Jean-Christophe

2017-09-01

Soil maximum available water content (MaxAWC) is a key parameter in land surface models (LSMs). However, being difficult to measure, this parameter is usually uncertain. This study assesses the feasibility of using a 15-year (1999-2013) time series of satellite-derived low-resolution observations of leaf area index (LAI) to estimate MaxAWC for rainfed croplands over France. LAI interannual variability is simulated using the CO2-responsive version of the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA) LSM for various values of MaxAWC. Optimal value is then selected by using (1) a simple inverse modelling technique, comparing simulated and observed LAI and (2) a more complex method consisting in integrating observed LAI in ISBA through a land data assimilation system (LDAS) and minimising LAI analysis increments. The evaluation of the MaxAWC estimates from both methods is done using simulated annual maximum above-ground biomass (Bag) and straw cereal grain yield (GY) values from the Agreste French agricultural statistics portal, for 45 administrative units presenting a high proportion of straw cereals. Significant correlations (p value < 0.01) between Bag and GY are found for up to 36 and 53 % of the administrative units for the inverse modelling and LDAS tuning methods, respectively. It is found that the LDAS tuning experiment gives more realistic values of MaxAWC and maximum Bag than the inverse modelling experiment. Using undisaggregated LAI observations leads to an underestimation of MaxAWC and maximum Bag in both experiments. Median annual maximum values of disaggregated LAI observations are found to correlate very well with MaxAWC.

Precipitation and temperature changes in the major Chinese river basins during 1957-2013 and links to sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Qing; Prange, Matthias; Merkel, Ute

2016-05-01

The variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in the three major Chinese river basins (Yellow River, Yangtze River and Pearl River) in the period of 1957-2013 were analyzed on an annual and seasonal basis, as well as their links to sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean on both interannual and decadal time scales. Annual mean temperature of the three river basins increased significantly overall since 1957, with an average warming rate of about 0.19 °C/10a, but the warming was characterized by a staircase form with steps around 1987 and 1998. The significant increase of annual mean temperature could mostly be attributed to the remarkable warming trend in spring, autumn and winter. Warming rates in the northern basins were generally much higher than in the southern basins. However, both the annual precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation of the three river basins showed little change in the study area average, but distinct interannual variations since 1957 and clear regional differences. An overall warming-wetting tendency was found in the northwestern and southeastern river basins in 1957-2013, while the central regions tended to become warmer and drier. Results from a Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) showed that the interannual variations of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature over the three river basins were both associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since 1957. ENSO SST patterns affected precipitation and surface air temperature variability throughout the year, but with very different response patterns in the different seasons. For instance, temperature in most of the river basins was positively correlated with central-eastern equatorial Pacific SST in winter and spring, but negatively correlated in summer and autumn. On the decadal time scale, the seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature variations were strongly associated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation.

Remote Sensing Approach to Drought Monitoring to Inform Range Management at the Hopi Tribe and Navajo Nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Vilaly, M. M.; Van Leeuwen, W. J.; Didan, K.; Marsh, S. E.; Crimmins, , M. A.

2012-12-01

The Hopi Tribe and Navajo Nation are situated in the Northeastern corner of Arizona in the Colorado River Plateau. For more than a decade, the area has faced extensive and persistent drought conditions that have impacted vegetation communities and local water resources while exacerbating soil erosion. Moreover, these persistent droughts threaten ecosystem services, agriculture, and livestock production activities, and make this region sensitive to inter-annual climate variability and change. The limited hydroclimatic observations, bolstered by numerous anecdotal drought impact reports, indicate that the region has been suffering through an almost 15-year long drought which is threatening its socio-economic development. The objective of this research is to employ remote sensing data to monitor the ongoing drought and inform management and decision-making. The overall goals of this study are to develop a common understanding of the current status of drought across the area in order to understand the existing seasonal and inter-annual relationships between climate variability and vegetation dynamics. To analyze and investigate vegetation responses to climate variability, land use practices, and environmental factors in Hopi and Navajo nation during the last 22 years, a drought assessment framework was developed that integrates climate and topographical data with land surface remote sensing time series data. Multi-sensor Normalized Difference Vegetation Index time series data were acquired from the vegetation index and phenology project (vip.arizona.edu) from 1989 to 2010 at 5.6 km, were analyzed to characterize the intra-annual changes of vegetation, seasonal phenology and inter-annual vegetation response to climate variability and environmental factors. Due to the low number of retrieval obtained from TIMESAT software, we developed a new framework that can maximize the number of retrieval. Four vegetation development stages, annual integrated NDVI (Net Primary Production (NPP)), minimum annual NDVI, maximum annual NDVI, and annual amplitude, were extracted using that new framework. A multi-linear regression has been applied to these vegetation phenology metrics as well as to the relationship between pheno-metrics and environmental variables, to detect potential vegetation changes and to examine the existing relationship between vegetation dynamics and rainfall and elevation gradients. The results suggest that vegetation behavior is foremost governed by rainfall gradients (R-square =0.74). Trend analyses confirmed that around 80 percent of pixels showed a general decline of greenness with confidence level of 95% (p< 0.05), while 4 percent showed a general greening up. Vegetation in the area showed a significant and strong relationship with elevation and precipitation gradients. This correlation was more prominent at mid-elevations, which could be explained by the snowmelt dynamics and hydrological redistribution of water at that elevation. These tools, methods and results can be used to aid in monitoring and understanding climate change and variability impacts on vegetation productivity, ecosystem services, and water resources of the region, and to inform decision-makers and range managers at Hopi Tribe and Navajo nation. Keywords: drought, remote sensing, time series, vegetation dynamics, Hopi Tribe and Navajo Nations

Climate variability and plant response at the Santa Rita Experimental Range, Arizona

Treesearch

Michael A. Crimmins; Theresa M. Mau-Crimmins

2003-01-01

Climatic variability is reflected in differential establishment, persistence, and spread of plant species. Although studies have investigated these relationships for some species and functional groups, few have attempted to characterize the specific sequences of climatic conditions at various temporal scales (subseasonal, seasonal, and interannual) associated with...

Seasonal weather-related decision making for cattle production in the Northern Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

High inter-annual variability of seasonal weather patterns can greatly affect forage and therefore livestock production in the Northern Great Plains. This variability can make it difficult for ranchers to set yearly stocking rates, particularly in advance of the grazing season. To better understand ...

An Assessment of Multimodel Simulations for the Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Its Association with ENSO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, Rongqing; Wang, Hui; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Li, Weijing; Long, Lindsey N.; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Peng, Peitao; Wang, Wanqiu; Si, Dong;

Dissolved organic carbon and its potential predictors in eutrophic lakes.

PubMed

Toming, Kaire; Kutser, Tiit; Tuvikene, Lea; Viik, Malle; Nõges, Tiina

2016-10-01

Understanding of the true role of lakes in the global carbon cycle requires reliable estimates of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and there is a strong need to develop remote sensing methods for mapping lake carbon content at larger regional and global scales. Part of DOC is optically inactive. Therefore, lake DOC content cannot be mapped directly. The objectives of the current study were to estimate the relationships of DOC and other water and environmental variables in order to find the best proxy for remote sensing mapping of lake DOC. The Boosted Regression Trees approach was used to clarify in which relative proportions different water and environmental variables determine DOC. In a studied large and shallow eutrophic lake the concentrations of DOC and coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) were rather high while the seasonal and interannual variability of DOC concentrations was small. The relationships between DOC and other water and environmental variables varied seasonally and interannually and it was challenging to find proxies for describing seasonal cycle of DOC. Chlorophyll a (Chl a), total suspended matter and Secchi depth were correlated with DOC and therefore are possible proxies for remote sensing of seasonal changes of DOC in ice free period, while for long term interannual changes transparency-related variables are relevant as DOC proxies. CDOM did not appear to be a good predictor of the seasonality of DOC concentration in Lake Võrtsjärv since the CDOM-DOC coupling varied seasonally. However, combining the data from Võrtsjärv with the published data from six other eutrophic lakes in the world showed that CDOM was the most powerful predictor of DOC and can be used in remote sensing of DOC concentrations in eutrophic lakes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms Governing Interannual Variability of Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Ozone Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albers, John R.; Perlwitz, Judith; Butler, Amy H.; Birner, Thomas; Kiladis, George N.; Lawrence, Zachary D.; Manney, Gloria L.; Langford, Andrew O.; Dias, Juliana

2018-01-01

Factors governing the strength and frequency of stratospheric ozone intrusions over the Pacific-North American region are considered for their role in modulating tropospheric ozone on interannual timescales. The strength of the association between two major modes of climate variability—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Northern Annular Mode (NAM)—and the amount of ozone contained in stratospheric intrusions are tested in the context of two mechanisms that modulate stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) of ozone: (StratVarO3) the winter season buildup of ozone abundances in the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) and (JetVar) Pacific jet and wave breaking variability during spring. In essence, StratVarO3 corresponds to variability in the amount of ozone per intrusion, while JetVar governs the frequency of intrusions. The resulting analysis, based on two different reanalysis products, suggests that StratVarO3 is more important than JetVar for driving interannual variations in STT of ozone over the Pacific-North American region. In particular, the abundance of ozone in the LMS at the end of winter is shown to be a robust indicator of the amount of ozone that will be contained in stratospheric intrusions during the ensuing spring. Additionally, it is shown that the overall strength of the winter season stratospheric NAM is a useful predictor of ozone intrusion strength. The results also suggest a nuanced relationship between the phase of ENSO and STT of ozone. While ENSO-related jet variability is associated with STT variability, it is wave breaking frequency rather than typical ENSO teleconnection patterns that is responsible for the ENSO-STT relationship.

The effect of vaccination coverage and climate on Japanese encephalitis in Sarawak, Malaysia.

PubMed

Impoinvil, Daniel E; Ooi, Mong How; Diggle, Peter J; Caminade, Cyril; Cardosa, Mary Jane; Morse, Andrew P; Baylis, Matthew; Solomon, Tom

2013-01-01

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the leading cause of viral encephalitis across Asia with approximately 70,000 cases a year and 10,000 to 15,000 deaths. Because JE incidence varies widely over time, partly due to inter-annual climate variability effects on mosquito vector abundance, it becomes more complex to assess the effects of a vaccination programme since more or less climatically favourable years could also contribute to a change in incidence post-vaccination. Therefore, the objective of this study was to quantify vaccination effect on confirmed Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases in Sarawak, Malaysia after controlling for climate variability to better understand temporal dynamics of JE virus transmission and control. Monthly data on serologically confirmed JE cases were acquired from Sibu Hospital in Sarawak from 1997 to 2006. JE vaccine coverage (non-vaccine years vs. vaccine years) and meteorological predictor variables, including temperature, rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) were tested for their association with JE cases using Poisson time series analysis and controlling for seasonality and long-term trend. Over the 10-years surveillance period, 133 confirmed JE cases were identified. There was an estimated 61% reduction in JE risk after the introduction of vaccination, when no account is taken of the effects of climate. This reduction is only approximately 45% when the effects of inter-annual variability in climate are controlled for in the model. The Poisson model indicated that rainfall (lag 1-month), minimum temperature (lag 6-months) and SOI (lag 6-months) were positively associated with JE cases. This study provides the first improved estimate of JE reduction through vaccination by taking account of climate inter-annual variability. Our analysis confirms that vaccination has substantially reduced JE risk in Sarawak but this benefit may be overestimated if climate effects are ignored.

Seasonal hypoxia in eutrophic stratified coastal shelves: mechanisms, sensibilities and interannual variability from the North-Western Black Sea case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capet, A.; Beckers, J.-M.; Grégoire, M.

2012-12-01

The Black Sea north-western shelf (NWS) is a~shallow eutrophic area in which seasonal stratification of the water column isolates bottom waters from the atmosphere and prevents ventilation to compensate for the large consumption of oxygen, due to respiration in the bottom waters and in the sediments. A 3-D coupled physical biogeochemical model is used to investigate the dynamics of bottom hypoxia in the Black Sea NWS at different temporal scales from seasonal to interannual (1981-2009) and to differentiate the driving factors (climatic versus eutrophication) of hypoxic conditions in bottom waters. Model skills are evaluated by comparison with 14 500 in-situ oxygen measurements available in the NOAA World Ocean Database and the Black Sea Commission data. The choice of skill metrics and data subselections orientate the validation procedure towards specific aspects of the oxygen dynamics, and prove the model's ability to resolve the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of oxygen concentration as well as the spatial location of the oxygen depleted waters and the specific threshold of hypoxia. During the period 1981-2009, each year exhibits seasonal bottom hypoxia at the end of summer. This phenomenon essentially covers the northern part of the NWS, receiving large inputs of nutrients from the Danube, Dniestr and Dniepr rivers, and extends, during the years of severe hypoxia, towards the Romanian Bay of Constanta. In order to explain the interannual variability of bottom hypoxia and to disentangle its drivers, a statistical model (multiple linear regression) is proposed using the long time series of model results as input variables. This statistical model gives a general relationship that links the intensity of hypoxia to eutrophication and climate related variables. The use of four predictors allows to reproduce 78% of hypoxia interannual variability: the annual nitrate discharge (N), the sea surface temperature in the month preceding stratification (T), the amount of semi-labile organic matter in the sediments (C) and the duration of the stratification (D). Eutrophication (N, C) and climate (T, D) predictors explain a similar amount of variability (~35%) when considered separately. A typical timescale of 9.3 yr is found to describe the inertia of sediments in the recovering process after eutrophication. From this analysis, we find that under standard conditions (i.e. average atmospheric conditions, sediments in equilibrium with river discharges), the intensity of hypoxia can be linked to the level of nitrate discharge through a non-linear equation (power law). Bottom hypoxia does not affect the whole Black Sea NWS but rather exhibits an important spatial variability. This heterogeneous distribution, in addition to the seasonal fluctuations, complicates the monitoring of bottom hypoxia leading to contradictory conclusions when the interpretation is done from different sets of data. We find that it was the case after 1995 when the recovery process was overestimated due to the use of observations concentrated in areas and months not typically affected by hypoxia. This stresses the urging need of a dedicated monitoring effort in the NWS of the Black Sea focused on the areas and the period of the year concerned by recurrent hypoxic events.

The Effect of Climate Variability on Gray Whales (Eschrichtius robustus) within Their Wintering Areas

PubMed Central

Salvadeo, Christian J.; Gómez-Gallardo U., Alejandro; Nájera-Caballero, Mauricio; Urbán-Ramirez, Jorge; Lluch-Belda, Daniel

2015-01-01

The environmental conditions of the breeding and feeding grounds of the gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) fluctuates at inter-annual scales in response to regional and basin climate patterns. Thus, the goals of this study were to assess if there are any relationships between summer sea ice on their feeding ground and counts of gray whale mother-calf (MC) pairs at Ojo de Liebre Lagoon (OLL); and if El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the winter distribution of gray whales MC pairs in the three primary breeding lagoons of OLL, San Ignacio Lagoon (SIL) and Santo Domingo Channel north of Bahia Magdalena (SDCh). Maximum February counts of MC pairs were compared with the length of the open-water season at the Bering Sea during the previous year. Then, an ENSO index and sea surface temperature anomalies outside the primary lagoons was compared with the maximum February counts of MC pairs at these lagoons. Results showed that maximum counts of MC pairs in OLL correlates with sea ice conditions in their feeding grounds from the previous feeding season, and this relationship can be attributed to changes in nutritive condition of females. ENSO-related variability influences distribution of MC pairs in the southern area of SDCh during the warm 1998 El Niño and cold 1999 La Niña. This supports the hypothesis that changes in the whales’ distribution related to sea temperature occurs to reduce thermal-stress and optimize energy utilization for newborn whales. Although this last conclusion should be considered in view of the limited data available from all the whales’ wintering locations in all the years considered. PMID:26309028

The Effect of Climate Variability on Gray Whales (Eschrichtius robustus) within Their Wintering Areas.

PubMed

Salvadeo, Christian J; Gómez-Gallardo U, Alejandro; Nájera-Caballero, Mauricio; Urbán-Ramirez, Jorge; Lluch-Belda, Daniel

2015-01-01

The environmental conditions of the breeding and feeding grounds of the gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) fluctuates at inter-annual scales in response to regional and basin climate patterns. Thus, the goals of this study were to assess if there are any relationships between summer sea ice on their feeding ground and counts of gray whale mother-calf (MC) pairs at Ojo de Liebre Lagoon (OLL); and if El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the winter distribution of gray whales MC pairs in the three primary breeding lagoons of OLL, San Ignacio Lagoon (SIL) and Santo Domingo Channel north of Bahia Magdalena (SDCh). Maximum February counts of MC pairs were compared with the length of the open-water season at the Bering Sea during the previous year. Then, an ENSO index and sea surface temperature anomalies outside the primary lagoons was compared with the maximum February counts of MC pairs at these lagoons. Results showed that maximum counts of MC pairs in OLL correlates with sea ice conditions in their feeding grounds from the previous feeding season, and this relationship can be attributed to changes in nutritive condition of females. ENSO-related variability influences distribution of MC pairs in the southern area of SDCh during the warm 1998 El Niño and cold 1999 La Niña. This supports the hypothesis that changes in the whales' distribution related to sea temperature occurs to reduce thermal-stress and optimize energy utilization for newborn whales. Although this last conclusion should be considered in view of the limited data available from all the whales' wintering locations in all the years considered.

Interannual influence of spring phenological transitions on the water use efficiency of forest ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Jiaxin; Wang, Ying

2017-04-01

Climate change has significantly influenced the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems through water cycles. Understanding the phenological regulation mechanisms underlying coupled carbon-water cycles is important for improving ecological assessments and projecting terrestrial ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. In this study, we present an analysis of the interannual relationships among flux-based spring phenological transitions (referred as photosynthetic onset) and water use efficiency (WUE) in North America and Europe using 166 site-years of data from 22 flux sites, including 10 deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) and 12 evergreen needleleaf forest (ENF) ecosystems. We found that the WUE responses to variations in spring phenological transitions differed substantially across plant functional types (PFTs) and growth periods. During the early spring (defined as one month from spring onset) in the DBF ecosystem, photosynthetic onset dominated changes in WUE by dominating gross primary production (GPP), with one day of advanced onset increasing the WUE by 0.037 gC kg-1H2O in early spring. For the ENF sites, although advanced photosynthetic onset also significantly promoted GPP, earlier onset did not have a significant positive impact on WUE in early spring because it was not significantly correlated to evapotranspiration (ET), which is a more dominant factor for WUE than GPP across the ENF sites. Statistically significant correlations were not observed between interannual variability in photosynthetic onset and WUE for either the DBF or ENF ecosystems following a prolonged period after photosynthetic onset. For the DBF sites, the interannual variability of photosynthetic onset provided a better explanation of the variations in WUE (ca. 51.4%) compared with climatic factors, although this was only applicable to the early spring. For the ENF sites, photosynthetic onset variations did not provide a better explanation of the interannual WUE variations compared with climatic factors within any growth period. Notably, the negative correlation between the interannual variability of early spring WUE and photosynthetic onset gradually declined from boreal forests (r = -0.73) to subtropical Mediterranean forests (r = 0.35), indicating that the positive effect of earlier spring phenological transitions decreased or even reversed from cold climates to warm climates. This result suggests that the effect of the phenological regulatory mechanism on coupled carbon-water cycles is not only determined by the PFT but also by the habitat climate of an ecosystem. These observed differences between the ENF and DBF ecosystems will likely influence future phenological shifts related to competition for water and other resources in mixed species stands.

Estimating inter-annual variability in winter wheat sowing dates from satellite time series in Camargue, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manfron, Giacinto; Delmotte, Sylvestre; Busetto, Lorenzo; Hossard, Laure; Ranghetti, Luigi; Brivio, Pietro Alessandro; Boschetti, Mirco

2017-05-01

Crop simulation models are commonly used to forecast the performance of cropping systems under different hypotheses of change. Their use on a regional scale is generally constrained, however, by a lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of environment-related input variables (e.g., soil) and agricultural practices (e.g., sowing dates) that influence crop yields. Satellite remote sensing data can shed light on such variability by providing timely information on crop dynamics and conditions over large areas. This paper proposes a method for analyzing time series of MODIS satellite data in order to estimate the inter-annual variability of winter wheat sowing dates. A rule-based method was developed to automatically identify a reliable sample of winter wheat field time series, and to infer the corresponding sowing dates. The method was designed for a case study in the Camargue region (France), where winter wheat is characterized by vernalization, as in other temperate regions. The detection criteria were chosen on the grounds of agronomic expertise and by analyzing high-confidence time-series vegetation index profiles for winter wheat. This automatic method identified the target crop on more than 56% (four-year average) of the cultivated areas, with low commission errors (11%). It also captured the seasonal variability in sowing dates with errors of ±8 and ±16 days in 46% and 66% of cases, respectively. Extending the analysis to the years 2002-2012 showed that sowing in the Camargue was usually done on or around November 1st (±4 days). Comparing inter-annual sowing date variability with the main local agro-climatic drivers showed that the type of preceding crop and the weather conditions during the summer season before the wheat sowing had a prominent role in influencing winter wheat sowing dates.

Spatial and temporal variations in high turbidity surface water off the Thule region, northwestern Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohashi, Yoshihiko; Iida, Takahiro; Sugiyama, Shin; Aoki, Shigeru

2016-09-01

Glacial meltwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet and ice caps forms high turbidity water in the proglacial ocean off the Greenland coast. Although the timing and magnitude of high turbidity water export affect the coastal marine environment, for example, through impacts on biological productivity, little is known about the characteristics of this high turbidity water. In this paper, we therefore report on the spatial and temporal variations in high turbidity water off the Thule region in northwestern Greenland, based on remote sensing reflectance data at a wavelength of 555 nm (Rrs555). The high turbidity area, identified on the basis of high reflectivity (Rrs555 ≥ 0.0070 sr-1), was generally distributed near the coast, where many outlet glaciers terminate in the ocean and on land. The extent of the high turbidity area exhibited substantial seasonal and interannual variability, and its annual maximum extent was significantly correlated with summer air temperature. Assuming a linear relationship between the high turbidity area and summer temperature, annual maximum extent increases under the influence of increasing glacial meltwater discharge, as can be inferred from present and predicted future warming trends.

Effects of urban development in the Puget Lowland, Washington, on interannual streamflow patterns: Consequences for channel form and streambed disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher P.; Booth, Derek B.; Burges, Stephen J.

2005-01-01

Recovery and protection of streams in urban areas depend on a comprehensive understanding of how human activities affect stream ecosystems. The hydrologic effects of urban development and the consequences for stream channel form and streambed stability were examined in 16 streams in the Puget Lowland, Washington, using three streamflow metrics that integrate storm‐scale effects of urban development over annual to decadal timescales: the fraction of time that streamflow exceeds the mean streamflow (TQmean), the coefficient of variation of annual maximum streamflow (CVAMF), and the fraction of time that streamflow exceeds the 0.5‐year flood (T0.5). Urban streams had low interannual variability in annual maximum streamflow and brief duration of frequent high flows, as indicated by significant correlations between road density and both CVAMFand T0.5. The broader distribution of streamflow indicated by TQmean may be affected by urban development, but differences in TQmean between streams are also likely a result of other physiographic factors. The increase in the magnitude of frequent high flows due to urban development but not their cumulative duration has important consequences for channel form and bed stability in gravel bed streams because geomorphic equilibrium depends on moderate duration streamflow (e.g., exceeded 10% of the time). Streams with low values of TQmean and T0.5 are narrower than expected from hydraulic geometry. Dimensionless boundary shear stress (t*) for the 0.5‐year flood was inversely related to T0.5 among the streams, indicating frequent and extensive bed disturbance in streams with low values of T0.5. Although stream channels expand and the size of bed material increases in response to urban streamflow patterns, these adjustments may be insufficient to reestablish the disturbance regime in urban streams because of the differential increase in the magnitude of frequent high flows causing disturbance relative to any changes in longer duration, moderate flows that establish a stable channel.

Interannual variability of the annual cycle of temperature channel-2 msu data over northern hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesouro, M.; Gimeno, L.; de La Torre, L.; Nieto, R.; Añel, J. A.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The seasonal cycle of the temperature MSU data in the Northern Hemisphere was investigated with the aim of studing interannual variability. Data consist of daily temperatures from the MSU-channel 2 that represent the lower troposphere. The analyzed area was the whole Northern Hemisphere and the studied period the last 23 years. Daily data were adjusted to the following expression for each year: y=a+b*sin(((2*PI)/d)x+c) The amplitude of the wave and the first inflexion point were used as indicators of the seasonal cycle. Results show a positive correlation in high latitudes between the NAO index and the amplitude and a negative one in middle latitudes. Correlations between the NAO index and the first inflexion point were negative for high latitudes regions.

Accounting for interannual variability: A comparison of options for water resources climate change impact assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Fiona; Sharma, Ashish

2011-04-01

Empirical scaling approaches for constructing rainfall scenarios from general circulation model (GCM) simulations are commonly used in water resources climate change impact assessments. However, these approaches have a number of limitations, not the least of which is that they cannot account for changes in variability or persistence at annual and longer time scales. Bias correction of GCM rainfall projections offers an attractive alternative to scaling methods as it has similar advantages to scaling in that it is computationally simple, can consider multiple GCM outputs, and can be easily applied to different regions or climatic regimes. In addition, it also allows for interannual variability to evolve according to the GCM simulations, which provides additional scenarios for risk assessments. This paper compares two scaling and four bias correction approaches for estimating changes in future rainfall over Australia and for a case study for water supply from the Warragamba catchment, located near Sydney, Australia. A validation of the various rainfall estimation procedures is conducted on the basis of the latter half of the observational rainfall record. It was found that the method leading to the lowest prediction errors varies depending on the rainfall statistic of interest. The flexibility of bias correction approaches in matching rainfall parameters at different frequencies is demonstrated. The results also indicate that for Australia, the scaling approaches lead to smaller estimates of uncertainty associated with changes to interannual variability for the period 2070-2099 compared to the bias correction approaches. These changes are also highlighted using the case study for the Warragamba Dam catchment.

Interannual variability of mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate in an inter-tidal basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerkema, Theo; Duran-Matute, Matias

2017-12-01

The relationship between the annual wind records from a weather station and annual mean sea level in an inter-tidal basin, the Dutch Wadden Sea, is examined. Recent, homogeneous wind records are used, covering the past 2 decades. It is demonstrated that even such a relatively short record is sufficient for finding a convincing relationship. The interannual variability of mean sea level is largely explained by the west-east component of the net wind energy, with some further improvement if one also includes the south-north component and the annual mean atmospheric pressure. Using measured data from a weather station is found to give a slight improvement over reanalysis data, but for both the correlation between annual mean sea level and wind energy in the west-east direction is high. For different tide gauge stations in the Dutch Wadden Sea and along the coast, we find the same qualitative characteristics, but even within this small region, different locations show a different sensitivity of annual mean sea level to wind direction. Correcting observed values of annual mean level for meteorological factors reduces the margin of error (expressed as 95 % confidence interval) by more than a factor of 4 in the trends of the 20-year sea level record. Supplementary data from a numerical hydrodynamical model are used to illustrate the regional variability in annual mean sea level and its interannual variability at a high spatial resolution. This study implies that climatic changes in the strength of winds from a specific direction may affect local annual mean sea level quite significantly.

Evaluating Interannual Variability of Accumulation Gradients on the Juneau Icefield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koncewicz, E.; Bollen, K.; Burkhart, A.; Cabrera, V.; Rovzar, T.; Truax, O.; McNeil, C.; Nicholson, L. I.; O'Neel, S.

2016-12-01

The Juneau Icefield Research Program has collected mass balance data over the last 70 years on the Taku and Lemon Creek glaciers. We analyze data from 2004-2016 to investigate the interannual variability in the accumulation gradients of these two glaciers from ground penetrating radar (GPR), probing, and snow pits. Understanding interannual variability of accumulation gradients on the Juneau Icefield will help us to interpret its long-term mass balance record. The Lemon Creek Glacier is a small valley glacier on the southwest edge of the Icefield. GPR data was collected over the glacier surface in March 2015 and 2016. In July of 2014 and 2016, the accumulation area was probed for snow depth, and two snow pits were dug for snow depth and density. The accumulation gradients resulting from each method are compared between years to assess the interannnual variability of the accumulation gradient and the resulting glacier wide mass balance. The Taku Glacier is the largest outlet glacier on the Juneau Icefield. We use three snow pits dug each year along the longitudinal profile of the glacier between 1000m and 1115m, the region that typically reflects the ELA. In 2004, 2005, 2010, 2011, and 2016, snow probing was continued in the central region of the Taku and the resulting gradients are compared to each other and to the gradients derived from the snow pits. We assess the resulting impact on glacier wide mass balance furthering our understanding of the state of these two well-monitored glaciers on the Juneau Icefield.

Explaining the inter-annual variability in the ecosystem fluxes of the Brasschaat Scots pine forest: 20 years of eddy flux and pollution monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horemans, Joanna; Roland, Marilyn; Janssens, Ivan; Ceulemans, Reinhart

2017-04-01

Because of their ecological and recreational value, the health of forest ecosystems and their response to global change and pollution are of high importance. At a number of EuroFlux and ICOS ecosystem sites in Europe - as the Brasschaat forest site - the measurements of ecosystem fluxes of carbon and other gases are combined with vertical profiles of air pollution within the framework of the ICP-Forest monitoring program. The Brasschaat forest is dominated by 80-year old Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.), and has a total area of about 150 ha. It is situated near an urban area in the Campine region of Flanders, Belgium and is characterized by a mean annual temperature of 9.8 °C and an annual rainfall of 830 mm. In this contribution we report on a long-term analysis (1996-2016) of the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes, the energy exchanges and the pollutant concentrations (ozone, NOx, NH3, SO2). Particular interest goes to the inter-annual variation of the carbon fluxes and the carbon allocation patterns. The impact of the long-term (aggregated) and the short-term variability in both the meteorological drivers and in the main tropospheric pollutants on the carbon fluxes is examined, as well as their mutual interactive effects and their potential memory effect. The effect of variability in the drivers during the phenological phases (seasonality) on the inter-annual variability of the fluxes is also examined. Basic statistical techniques as well as spectral analyses and data mining techniques are being used.

Tropospheric Ozone and Biomass Burning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, S.; Ziemke, J. R.; Bhartia, P. K.

2001-05-01

This paper studies the significance of pyrogenic (e.g., biomass burning) emissions in the production of tropospheric ozone in the tropics associated with the forest and savanna fires in the African, South American, and Indonesian regions. Using aerosol index (AI) and tropospheric column ozone (TCO) time series from 1979 to 2000 derived from the Nimbus-7 and Earth Probe TOMS measurements, our study shows significant differences in the seasonal and spatial characteristics of pyrogenic emissions north and south of the equator in the African region and Brazil in South America. In general, they are not related to the seasonal and spatial characteristics of tropospheric ozone in these regions. In the Indonesian region, the most significant increase in TCO occurred during September and October 1997, following large-scale forest and savanna fires associated with the El Niño-induced dry condition. However, the increase in TCO extended over most of the western Pacific well outside the burning region and was accompanied by a decrease in the eastern Pacific resembling a west-to-east dipole about the dateline. The net increase in TCO integrated over the tropical region between 15N and 15S was about 6-8 Tg (terragram) over the mean climatological value of about 72 Tg. This increase is within the range of interannual variability of TCO in the tropical region and does not necessarily suggest a photochemical source related to biomass burning. The interannual variability in TCO appears to be out of phase with the interannual variability of stratospheric column ozone (SCO). These variabilities seem to be manifestations of solar cycle and quasi-biennial oscillations.

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 1: Reexamination of observational evidence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tung, K. K.; Yang, H.

1994-01-01

Observational evidence for a global quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) pattern is reviewed. In particular, the presence of an extratropical, as well as an equatorial, component of the QBO signal in column ozone is established. It is found that the ozone interannual variability is such that as one moves away from the Tropics, the frequency spectrum of the anomaly changes from one that is dominated by the equatorial QBO frequency of 1/30 mo to a two-peak spectrum around the two frequencies: 1/30 mo and 1/20 mo. Instead of treating the 1/20 mo frequency as a separate phenomenon to be filtered away in extracting the QBO in the extratropics, as was previously done, the authors argue that both peaks are integral parts of the extratropical QBO phenomenon. The 1/20 mo frequency happens to be the difference combination of the QBO frequency 1/30 mo and the annual frequency 1/12 mo. Therefore, it can represent the result of the QBO modulating an annual cycle. The authors suggest that previous methods of extracting the extratropical QBO signal severely underestimated the contribution of the QBO to the interannual variability of ozone when data are filtered to pass only the component with the period of equatorial QBO. Further, it is argued that the transport of equatorial QBO ozone anomaly by a non-QBO circulation can at most account for 6-8 Dobson units (DU) of the observed interannual variability of column ozone in the extratropics. The remaining variability (up to 20 DU) probably cannot be produced without an anomaly in the transporting circulation in the extratropics.

Large interannual variability in net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange of a disturbed temperate peatland.

PubMed

Aslan-Sungur, Guler; Lee, Xuhui; Evrendilek, Fatih; Karakaya, Nusret

2016-06-01

Peatland ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle as significant C sinks. However, human-induced disturbances can turn these sinks into sources of atmospheric CO2. Long-term measurements are needed to understand seasonal and interannual variability of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and effects of hydrological conditions and their disturbances on C fluxes. Continuous eddy-covariance measurements of NEE were conducted between August 2010 and April 2014 at Yenicaga temperate peatland (Turkey), which was drained for agricultural usage and for peat mining until 2009. Annual NEE during the three full years of measurement indicated that the peatland acted as a CO2 source with large interannual variability, at rates of 246, 244 and 663 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) for 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively, except for June 2011, and May to July 2012. The emission strengths were comparable to those found for severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The peak CO2 emissions occurred in the dry summer of 2013 when water table level (WTL) was below a threshold value of -60 cm and soil water content (SCW) below a threshold value of 70% by volume. Water availability index was found to have a stronger explanatory power for variations in monthly ecosystem respiration (ER) than the traditional water status indicators (SCW and WTL). Air temperature, evapotranspiration and vapor pressure deficient were the most significant variables strongly correlated with NEE and its component fluxes of gross primary production and ER. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tropospheric Ozone and Biomass Burning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandra, Sushil; Ziemke, J. R.; Bhartia, P. K.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This paper studies the significance of pyrogenic (e.g., biomass burning) emissions in the production of tropospheric ozone in the tropics associated with the forest and savanna fires in the African, South American, and Indonesian regions. Using aerosol index (Al) and tropospheric column ozone (TCO) time series from 1979 to 2000 derived from the Nimbus-7 and Earth Probe TOMS measurements, our study shows significant differences in the seasonal and spatial characteristics of pyrogenic emissions north and south of the equator in the African region and Brazil in South America. In general, they are not related to the seasonal and spatial characteristics of tropospheric ozone in these regions. In the Indonesian region, the most significant increase in TCO occurred during September and October 1997, following large-scale forest and savanna fires associated with the El Nino-induced dry season. However, the increase in TCO extended over most of the western Pacific well outside the burning region and was accompanied by a decrease in the eastern Pacific resembling a west-to-east dipole about the date-line. The net increase in TCO integrated over the tropical region between 15 deg N and 15 deg S was about 6-8 Tg (1 Tg = 10(exp 12) gm) over the mean climatological value of about 72 Tg. This increase is well within the range of interannual variability of TCO in the tropical region and does not necessarily suggest a photochemical source related to biomass burning. The interannual variability in TCO appears to be out of phase with the interannual variability of stratospheric column ozone (SCO). These variabilities seem to be manifestations of solar cycle and quasibiennial oscillations.

Inter-annual variability of North Sea plaice spawning habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loots, C.; Vaz, S.; Koubbi, P.; Planque, B.; Coppin, F.; Verin, Y.

2010-11-01

Potential spawning habitat is defined as the area where environmental conditions are suitable for spawning to occur. Spawning adult data from the first quarter (January-March) of the International Bottom Trawl Survey have been used to study the inter-annual variability of the potential spawning habitat of North Sea plaice from 1980 to 2007. Generalised additive models (GAM) were used to create a model that related five environmental variables (depth, bottom temperature and salinity, seabed stress and sediment type) to presence-absence and abundance of spawning adults. Then, the habitat model was applied each year from 1970 to 2007 to predict inter-annual variability of the potential spawning habitat. Predicted responses obtained by GAM for each year were mapped using kriging. A hierarchical classification associated with a correspondence analysis was performed to cluster spawning suitable areas and to determine how they evolved across years. The potential spawning habitat was consistent with historical spawning ground locations described in the literature from eggs surveys. It was also found that the potential spawning habitat varied across years. Suitable areas were located in the southern part of the North Sea and along the eastern coast of England and Scotland in the eighties; they expanded further north from the nineties. Annual survey distributions did not show such northward expansion and remained located in the southern North Sea. This suggests that this species' actual spatial distribution remains stable against changing environmental conditions, and that the potential spawning habitat is not fully occupied. Changes in environmental conditions appear to remain within plaice environmental ranges, meaning that other factors may control the spatial distribution of plaice spawning habitat.

Vegetation coupling to global climate: Trajectories of vegetation change and phenology modeling from satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Jeremy Isaac

Important systematic shifts in ecosystem function are often masked by natural variability. The rich legacy of over two decades of continuous satellite observations provides an important database for distinguishing climatological and anthropogenic ecosystem changes. Examples from semi-arid Sudanian West Africa and New England (USA) illustrate the response of vegetation to climate and land-use. In Burkina Faso, West Africa, pastoral and agricultural practices compete for land area, while degradation may follow intensification. The Nouhao Valley is a natural experiment in which pastoral and agricultural land uses were allocated separate, coherent reserves. Trajectories of annual net primary productivity were derived from 18 years of coarse-grain (AVHRR) satellite data. Trends suggested that pastoral lands had responded rigorously to increasing rainfall after the 1980's droughts. A detailed analysis at Landsat resolution (30m) indicated that the increased vegetative cover was concentrated in the river basins of the pastoral region, implying a riparian wood expansion. In comparison, riparian cover was reduced in agricultural regions. We suggest that broad-scale patterns of increasing semi-arid West African greenness may be indicative of climate variability, whereas local losses may be anthropogenic in nature. The contiguous deciduous forests, ocean proximity, topography, and dense urban developments of New England provide an ideal landscape to examine influences of climate variability and the impact of urban development vegetation response. Spatial and temporal patterns of interannual climate variability were examined via green leaf phenology. Phenology, or seasonal growth and senescence, is driven by deficits of light, temperature, and water. In temperate environments, phenology variability is driven by interannual temperature and precipitation shifts. Average and interannual phenology analyses across southern New England were conducted at resolutions of 30m (Landsat) and 500m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). A robust logistic-growth model of canopy cover was employed to determine phenological characteristics at each forest stand. The duel analyses revealed important findings: (a) local phenological gradients from microclimatic structures are highly influential in broad-scale phenological observations; (b) satellite observed phenology reflects observations of canopy growth from field studies; (c) phenological anomalies in urban areas which were previously attributed to urban heat may be a function of urban-specific land cover (i.e. green lawns); and (d) patterns of interannual variability in phenology at the regional scale have high spatial coherency and appear to be driven by broad-scale climatic change. Satellite-observed phenology may reflect temperatures during spring and provides a proxy of climate variability.

Seasonal prediction and predictability of Eurasian spring snow water equivalent in NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 reforecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Qiong; Zuo, Zhiyan; Zhang, Renhe; Zhang, Ruonan

2018-01-01

The spring snow water equivalent (SWE) over Eurasia plays an important role in East Asian and Indian monsoon rainfall. This study evaluates the seasonal prediction capability of NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) retrospective forecasts (1983-2010) for the Eurasian spring SWE. The results demonstrate that CFSv2 is able to represent the climatological distribution of the observed Eurasian spring SWE with a lead time of 1-3 months, with the maximum SWE occurring over western Siberia and Northeastern Europe. For a longer lead time, the SWE is exaggerated in CFSv2 because the start of snow ablation in CFSv2 lags behind that of the observation, and the simulated snowmelt rate is less than that in the observation. Generally, CFSv2 can simulate the interannual variations of the Eurasian spring SWE 1-5 months ahead of time but with an exaggerated magnitude. Additionally, the downtrend in CFSv2 is also overestimated. Because the initial conditions (ICs) are related to the corresponding simulation results significantly, the robust interannual variability and the downtrend in the ICs are most likely the causes for these biases. Moreover, CFSv2 exhibits a high potential predictability for the Eurasian spring SWE, especially the spring SWE over Siberia, with a lead time of 1-5 months. For forecasts with lead times longer than 5 months, the model predictability gradually decreases mainly due to the rapid decrease in the model signal.

Anomalous Variability in Antarctic Sea Ice Extents During the 1960s With the Use of Nimbus Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallaher, David W.; Campbell, G. Garrett; Meier, Walter N.

2013-01-01

The Nimbus I, II, and III satellites provide a new opportunity for climate studies in the 1960s. The rescue of the visible and infrared imager data resulted in the utilization of the early Nimbus data to determine sea ice extent. A qualitative analysis of the early NASA Nimbus missions has revealed Antarctic sea ice extents that are significant larger and smaller than the historic 1979-2012 passive microwave record. The September 1964 ice mean area is 19.7x10(exp 6) sq. km +/- 0.3x10(exp 6) sq. km. This is more the 250,000 sq. km greater than the 19.44x10(exp 6) sq. km seen in the new 2012 historic maximum. However, in August 1966 the maximum sea ice extent fell to 15.9x10(exp 6) sq. km +/- 0.3x10(exp 6) sq. km. This is more than 1.5x10(exp 6) sq. km below the passive microwave record of 17.5x10(exp 6) sq. km set in September of 1986. This variation between 1964 and 1966 represents a change of maximum sea ice of over 3x10(exp 6) sq. km in just two years. These inter-annual variations while large, are small when compared to the Antarctic seasonal cycle.

The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. J.; Tietsche, S.; Collins, M.; Goessling, H. F.; Guemas, V.; Guillory, A.; Hurlin, W. J.; Ishii, M.; Keeley, S. P. E.; Matei, D.; Msadek, R.; Sigmond, M.; Tatebe, H.; Hawkins, E.

2015-10-01

Recent decades have seen significant developments in seasonal-to-interannual timescale climate prediction capabilities. However, until recently the potential of such systems to predict Arctic climate had not been assessed. This paper describes a multi-model predictability experiment which was run as part of the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Inter-annual Timescales (APPOSITE) project. The main goal of APPOSITE was to quantify the timescales on which Arctic climate is predictable. In order to achieve this, a coordinated set of idealised initial-value predictability experiments, with seven general circulation models, was conducted. This was the first model intercomparison project designed to quantify the predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to inter-annual timescales. Here we present a description of the archived data set (which is available at the British Atmospheric Data Centre) and an update of the project's results. Although designed to address Arctic predictability, this data set could also be used to assess the predictability of other regions and modes of climate variability on these timescales, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

Observational Diagnoses of Extratropical Ozone STE During the Aura Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, Mark A.; Douglass, Anne R.; Witte, Jacquie C.; Kaplan, Trevor B.

2011-01-01

The transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the extratropical troposphere is an important boundary condition to tropospheric chemistry. However, previous direct estimates from models and indirect estimates from observations have poorly constrained the magnitude of ozone stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). In this study we provide a direct diagnosis of the extratropical ozone STE using data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on Aura and output of the MERRA reanalysis over the time period from 2005 to the present. We find that the mean annual STE is about 275 Tg/yr and 205 Tg/yr in the NH and SH, respectively. The interannual variability of the magnitude is about twice as great in the NH than the SH. We find that this variability is dominated by the seasonal variability during the late winter and spring. A comparison of the ozone flux to the mass flux reveals that there is not a simple relationship between the two quantities. This presentation will also examine the magnitude and distribution of ozone in the lower stratosphere relative to the years of maximum and minimum ozone STE. Finally, we will examine any possible signature of increased ozone STE in the troposphere using sonde and tropospheric ozone residual (TOR) data, and output from the Global Modeling Initiative Chemistry Transport Model (GMI CTM).

The pattern and variability of winter Kuroshio intrusion northeast of Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaohui; Dong, Changming; Chen, Dake; Su, Jilan

2014-08-01

The variations of the Kuroshio path and velocity northeast of Taiwan are analyzed based on along-track satellite altimeter data as well as high-resolution model experiments. Observations reveal that in winter the Kuroshio intrusion into the East China Sea (ECS) at this location is manifested by a secondary maximum current core (SMCC) shoreward of the Kuroshio's main path. The SMCC varies significantly on interannual time scale, and its variability is strikingly out of phase with that of the Kuroshio entering the ECS, meaning that the stronger the Kuroshio, the weaker the SMCC, and vice versa. Model experiments corroborate the observational results and, more importantly, indicate that the Kuroshio intrusion here follows two primary routes, a large anticyclonic loop that separates from the Kuroshio at the northern end of Taiwan and moves forward to form the SMCC, and a straight northward path onto the shelf when the Kuroshio turns sharply eastward along the continental slope of the ECS. The intrusion is controlled by both local forcing and remote effect, with its pattern and variability depending mostly on the local heat flux and the inertia of the Kuroshio Current. This article was corrected on 12 SEP 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

Seasonal and interannual variability of the Mid-Holocene East Asian monsoon in coral δ18O records from the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Donghuai; Gagan, Michael K.; Cheng, Hai; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Dykoski, Carolyn A.; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Su, Ruixia

2005-08-01

Understanding the full range of past monsoon variability, with reference to specific monsoon seasons, is essential to test coupled climate models and improve their predictive capabilities. We present a 54-year long, high-resolution skeletal oxygen isotope (δ18O) record extracted from a well-preserved, massive Porites sp. coral at Hainan Island, South China Sea, to investigate East Asian monsoon variability during summer and winter ∼4400 calendar yr ago. Analysis of modern coral δ18O confirms that Porites from Hainan Island are well positioned to record winter monsoon forcing of sea surface temperature (SST), as well as the influence of summer monsoon rainfall on sea surface salinity (SSS). The coral record for ∼4400 yr ago shows ∼9% amplification of the annual cycle of δ18O, in good agreement with coupled ocean-atmosphere models showing higher summer rainfall (lower coral δ18O) and cooler winter SSTs (higher coral δ18O) in response to greater Northern Hemisphere insolation seasonality during the Middle Holocene. Mean SSTs in the South China Sea during the Mid-Holocene were within 0.5 °C of modern values, yet the mean δ18O for the fossil coral is ∼0.6‰ higher than that for the modern coral, suggesting that the δ18O of surface seawater was higher by at least ∼0.5‰, relative to modern values. The 18O-enrichment is likely to be driven by greater advection of moisture towards the Asian landmass, enhanced monsoon wind-induced evaporation and vertical mixing, and/or invigorated advection of saltier 18O-enriched Pacific water into the relatively fresh South China Sea. The 18O-enrichment of the northern South China Sea ∼4400 yr ago contributes to mounting evidence for recent freshening of the tropical Western Pacific. Today, winter SST and summer SSS variability in the South China Sea reflect the interannual influence of ENSO and the biennial variability inherent to monsoon precipitation. Spectral analysis of winter SSTs ∼4400 yr ago reveals a strong ENSO cycle at 6.7 y, which is significantly longer than the average 3.6 y cycle observed since 1970. The results suggest that the influence of ENSO on winter SSTs in the South China Sea was well established by ∼4400 yr ago. However, spectral analysis of summer SSS ∼4400 yr ago shows no significant ENSO cycle, suggesting that teleconnections between ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall were restricted. Taken together, the results indicate marked differences in ENSO-monsoon interactions during the winter and summer monsoon seasons in the past. The fossil coral δ18O record also shows that the amplitude of interannual SST and SSS variability was stronger ∼4400 yr ago, despite ENSO variability being significantly weaker in the Pacific region. Thus it appears that the strengthened Mid-Holocene monsoon was sensitive to forces, other than ENSO, that acted as alternative drivers of interannual monsoon variability. If this is the case, greater interannual climate variability could accompany the strengthening of the Asian monsoon predicted to occur during the 21st century as transient greenhouse warming preferentially warms Eurasia, even if ENSO perturbations remain relatively stable.

Interannual variability in the extent of wetland-stream connectivity within the Prairie Pothole Region

Treesearch

Melanie Vanderhoof; Laurie Alexander

2016-01-01

The degree of hydrological connectivity between wetland systems and downstream receiving waters can be expected to influence the volume and variability of stream discharge. The Prairie Pothole Region contains a high density of depressional wetland features, a consequence of glacial retreat. Spatial variability in wetland density, drainage evolution, and precipitation...

Effects of model spatial resolution on ecohydrologic predictions and their sensitivity to inter-annual climate variability

Treesearch

Kyongho Son; Christina Tague; Carolyn Hunsaker

2016-01-01

The effect of fine-scale topographic variability on model estimates of ecohydrologic responses to climate variability in California’s Sierra Nevada watersheds has not been adequately quantified and may be important for supporting reliable climate-impact assessments. This study tested the effect of digital elevation model (DEM) resolution on model accuracy and estimates...

Hydrothermal assessment of temporal variability in seedbed microclimate

Treesearch

Stuart P. Hardegree; Corey A. Moffet; Gerald N. Flerchinger; Jaepil Cho; Bruce A. Roundy; Thomas A. Jones; Jeremy J. James; Patrick E. Clark; Frederick B. Pierson

2013-01-01

The microclimatic requirements for successful seedling establishment are much more restrictive than those required for adult plant survival. The purpose of the current study was to use hydrothermal germination models and a soil energy and water flux model to evaluate intra- and interannual variability in seedbed microclimate relative to potential germination response...

Regional and hemispheric influences on temporal variability in baseline carbon monoxide and ozone over the Northeast US

EPA Science Inventory

Interannual variability in baseline carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3), defined as mixing ratios under minimal influence of recent and local emissions, was studied for seven rural sites in the Northeast US over 2001–2010. Annual baseline CO exhibited statistically signific...

Consistency of Bottom Fish Communities in the Beaufort Sea Within and Between Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norcross, B.; Holladay, B.

2016-02-01

Fish communities in the Arctic may be indicators of change due to climate and oil and gas exploration. An initial benchmark is generally established by sampling a set of sites in multiple years sequentially to estimate interannual variability. Standard practice is to conduct one trawl haul per station. Establishing the annual frequency of sampling and minimum number of hauls per station necessary to detect changes in demersal fish communities is essential to designing a monitoring program. Using small bottom trawls, we assessed interannual variability of bottom fish communities between 2013 and 2014 in the eastern US Beaufort Sea at eight depths 20-1000 m on each of four transects. In 2014, to determine if one haul per station was representative of a site, replicate hauls were made at stations along one transect at the US-Canada border. The similarity among replicate hauls within a single year was excellent, indicating that one haul per station was representative of fish communities. There were distinctly different bottom fish communities on the Beaufort Sea shelf (20-100 m) and slope (200-1000 m). Shelf communities had higher abundances of smaller fishes; whereas slope communities had fewer, but larger, individuals. There was no change in fish abundance between years, but there was interannual variability in the biomass of fish communities on the slope. However, as few fishes were captured at deep stations, the difference between catching and not catching a single large heavy fish affected relative biomass significantly, which may distort the conclusion of interannual variability. Furthermore, these replicate hauls occurred in the eastern Beaufort Sea, which appears to have fewer fish species and in lower abundance than the western Beaufort Sea. The similarity within replicates may not be as striking in a more diverse environment, however this study shows that in this region of the Arctic, it is likely sufficient to forego replicate sampling at a station in one year and season, and sequential years of sampling in that season, when characterizing bottom fish communities within a long-term study of community stability.

The roles of static stability and tropical-extratropical interactions in the summer interannual variability of the North Atlantic sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mbengue, Cheikh Oumar; Woollings, Tim; Dacre, Helen F.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2018-04-01

Summer seasonal forecast skill in the North Atlantic sector is lower than winter skill. To identify potential controls on predictability, the sensitivity of North Atlantic baroclinicity to atmospheric drivers is quantified. Using ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data, North Atlantic storm-track baroclinicity is shown to be less sensitive to meridional temperature-gradient variability in summer. Static stability shapes the sector's interannual variability by modulating the sensitivity of baroclinicity to variations in meridional temperature gradients and tropopause height and by modifying the baroclinicity itself. High static stability anomalies at upper levels result in more zonal extratropical cyclone tracks and higher eddy kinetic energy over the British Isles in the summertime. These static stability anomalies are not strongly related to the summer NAO; but they are correlated with the suppression of convection over the tropical Atlantic and with a poleward-shifted subtropical jet. These results suggest a non-local driver of North Atlantic variability. Furthermore, they imply that improved representations of convection over the south-eastern part of North America and the tropical Atlantic might improve summer seasonal forecast skill.

Interannual variability of soft-bottom macrobenthic communities of the NW Gulf of Mexico in relationship to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

PubMed

Salcedo, Diana L; Soto, Luis A; Estradas-Romero, Alejandro; Botello, Alfonso V

2017-01-30

A 3-year research program was undertaken to assess potential environmental disturbance caused by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to the soft-bottom macrobenthic communities within Mexican waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Community properties and temporal/spatial variability were analyzed besides toxicant parameters such as hydrocarbons and trace-metals. Overall infaunal density increased, taxa proportion changed, and small-size opportunistic organisms prevailed throughout the study. Annual abundance-biomass comparison (ABC) curves revealed progressive stress scenarios from moderate to severe. Concentrations of vanadium, nickel, cobalt, PAHs and AHs increased gradually over time. However, low correlations between benthic density and biogeochemical variables were determined. Initially, sedimentary properties were the main drivers of benthic community structure; subsequently, nickel, vanadium and PAHs, indicative of anthropogenic effect, were highlighted. Interannual variability in the macroinfauna was attributed to the synergy of several environmental factors. Undoubtedly, compounds derived from fossil fuels had a significant disturbance role, but their source remains uncertain. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region.

PubMed

Laxon, Seymour; Peacock, Neil; Smith, Doug

2003-10-30

Possible future changes in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness, and consequent changes in the ice-albedo feedback, represent one of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of future temperature rise. Knowledge of the natural variability of sea ice thickness is therefore critical for its representation in global climate models. Numerical simulations suggest that Arctic ice thickness varies primarily on decadal timescales owing to changes in wind and ocean stresses on the ice, but observations have been unable to provide a synoptic view of sea ice thickness, which is required to validate the model results. Here we use an eight-year time-series of Arctic ice thickness, derived from satellite altimeter measurements of ice freeboard, to determine the mean thickness field and its variability from 65 degrees N to 81.5 degrees N. Our data reveal a high-frequency interannual variability in mean Arctic ice thickness that is dominated by changes in the amount of summer melt, rather than by changes in circulation. Our results suggest that a continued increase in melt season length would lead to further thinning of Arctic sea ice.

Monthly gravity field solutions based on GRACE observations generated with the Celestial Mechanics Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Ulrich; Jäggi, Adrian; Beutler, Gerhard

2012-09-01

The main objective of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission consists of determining the temporal variations of the Earth's gravity field. These variations are captured by time series of gravity field models of limited resolution at, e.g., monthly intervals. We present a new time series of monthly models, which was computed with the so-called Celestial Mechanics Approach (CMA), developed at the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB). The secular and seasonal variations in the monthly models are tested for statistical significance. Calibrated errors are derived from inter-annual variations. The time-variable signal can be extracted at least up to degree 60, but the gravity field coefficients of orders above 45 are heavily contaminated by noise. This is why a series of monthly models is computed up to a maximum degree of 60, but only a maximum order of 45. Spectral analysis of the residual time-variable signal shows a distinctive peak at a period of 160 days, which shows up in particular in the C20 spherical harmonic coefficient. Basic filter- and scaling-techniques are introduced to evaluate the monthly models. For this purpose, the variability over the oceans is investigated, which serves as a measure for the noisiness of the models. The models in selected regions show the expected seasonal and secular variations, which are in good agreement with the monthly models of the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ). The results also reveal a few small outliers, illustrating the necessity for improved data screening. Our monthly models are available at the web page of the International Centre for Global Earth Models (ICGEM).

Mapping wildfire danger at regional scale with an index model integrating coarse spatial resolution remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ChéRet, VéRonique; Denux, Jean Philippe

2007-06-01

Wildfires are a prevalent natural hazard in the south of France. Planners need a permanent fire danger assessment valid for several years over a territory as large and heterogeneous as Midi-Pyrénées region. To this end, we developed an expert knowledge-based index model adapted to the specific features of the study area. The fire danger depends on two complementary elements: spatial occurrence and fire intensity. Among the GIS layers identified as input variables for modeling, vegetation fire susceptibility is one of the most influent. However, the main difficulty at this scale is the scarcity or the lack of exhaustiveness of the data. In this respect, remote sensing imagery is capable of providing relevant information. We proposed to calculate an annual relative greenness index (annual RGRE) that reflects vegetation dryness in summer. We processed times series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from SPOT-VEGETATION images over the last six available years (1998 to 2003). The first step was to verify that these images characterize vegetation types and highlight intraannual and interannual response variability. It is then possible to identify phenological stages corresponding to the maximum NDVI (and therefore to maximum photosynthetic activity) during the growing season, the minimum NDVI at the end of the growing season and the minimum NDVI during winter period. These phenology metrics ground the annual RGRE calculation. Values obtained for each observation year show significant correlation (r2 = 0.70) with the De Martonne aridity index calculated for the same period. A synthesis of yearly index was integrated in the model as a variable that expresses fire susceptibility.

The variability of SE2 tide extracted from TIMED/SABER observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Wan, W.; Ren, Z.

2017-12-01

Based on the temperature observations of the TIMED/SABER in mesosphere/lower thermosphere region (70-110 km altitudes) and at the low latitude and midlatitude (45°S-45°N) from 2002 to 2012, the variability of the nonmigrating tide SE2 with 1 day resolution is analyzed. It is found that the climatological features (large-scale variability) of the semidiurnal nonmigrating tide with zonal wave number 2 (SE2) tide are similar with the results from the previous research works. The SE2 tide manifests mainly at the low-mid latitudes around ±30°. The northern hemisphere tidal amplitudes below 110 km are larger than the southern hemisphere tide. SE2 peaks below 110 km mainly present between 100 and 110 km altitude. The tidal amplitudes below 110 km occur a north-south asymmetry about the equator in the annual variation: in the southern hemisphere, SE2 occurs with an obvious annual variation with a maximum of tidal amplitudes in December, while in the northern one, the semiannual variations with maximum at the equinoxes. Herein, owing to the high-resolution tidal data, we could research the short-term (day-to-day) variations of SE2. We found that the day-to-day variations manifest mainly at between 100 and 110 km altitudes; it increases gradually with latitudes, and it is stronger at the low-mid latitudes; it is relatively slightly stronger around solstices than equinoxes; and it does not present a remarkably interannual variation. The SE2 day-to-day variations may be composed by the absolute amplitudes' variance and the impact of the wave phases, and the latter ones are more important.

The variability of SE2 tide extracted from TIMED/SABER observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xing; Wan, Weixing; Ren, Zhipeng; Yu, You

2017-02-01

Based on the temperature observations of the TIMED/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry in mesosphere/lower thermosphere region (70-110 km altitudes) and at the low latitude and midlatitude (45°S-45°N) from 2002 to 2012, the variability of the nonmigrating tide SE2 with 1 day resolution is analyzed, using the method from Li et al. (2015). It is found that the climatological features (large-scale variability) of the SE2 tide are similar with the results from the previous research works. The SE2 tide manifests mainly at the low-mid latitudes around ±30°. The northern hemisphere tidal amplitudes below 110 km are larger than the southern hemisphere tide. SE2 peaks below 110 km mainly present between 100 and 110 km altitude. The tidal amplitudes below 110 km occur a north-south asymmetry about the equator in the annual variation: in the southern hemisphere, SE2 occurs with an obvious annual variation with a maximum of tidal amplitudes in December, while in the northern one, the semiannual variations with maximum at the equinoxes. Herein, owing to the high-resolution tidal data, we could research the short-term (day-to-day) variations of SE2. We found that the day-to-day variations manifest mainly at between 100 and 110 km altitudes; it increases gradually with latitudes, and it is stronger at the low-mid latitudes; it is relatively slightly stronger around solstices than equinoxes; and it does not present a remarkably interannual variation. The SE2 day-to-day variations may be composed by the absolute amplitudes' variance and the impact of the wave phases, and the latter ones are more important.

Using ARM Measurements to Understand and Reduce the Double ITCZ Biases in the Community Atmospheric Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Minghua

1. Understanding of the observed variability of ITCZ in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The annual mean precipitation in the eastern Pacific has a maximum zonal band north of the equator in the ITCZ where the maximum SST is located. During the boreal spring (referring to February, March, and April throughout the present paper), because of the accumulated solar radiation heating and oceanic heat transport, a secondary maximum of SST exists in the southeastern equatorial Pacific. Associated with this warm SST is also a seasonal transitional maximum of precipitation in the same region in boreal spring, exhibited as a weak doublemore » ITCZ pattern in the equatorial eastern Pacific. This climatological seasonal variation, however, varies greatly from year to year: double ITCZ in the boreal spring occurs in some years but not in other years; when there a single ITCZ, it can appear either north, south or at the equator. Understanding this observed variability is critical to find the ultimate cause of the double ITCZ in climate models. Seasonal variation of ITCZ south of the eastern equatorial Pacific: By analyzing data from satellites, field measurements and atmospheric reanalysis, we have found that in the region where spurious ITCZ in models occurs, there is a “seasonal cloud transition” — from stratocumulus to shallow cumulus and eventually to deep convection —in the South Equatorial Pacific (SEP) from September to April that is similar to the spatial cloud transition from the California coast to the equator. This seasonal transition is associated with increasing sea surface temperature (SST), decreasing lower tropospheric stability and large-scale subsidence. This finding of seasonal cloud transition points to the same source of model errors in the ITCZ simulations as in simulation of stratocumulus-cumulus-deep convection transition. It provides a test for climate models to simulate the relationships between clouds and large-scale atmospheric fields in a region that features a spurious double Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in most models. This work is recently published in Yu et al. (2016). Interannual variation of ITCZ south of the eastern equatorial Pacific: By analyzing data from satellites, field measurements and atmospheric reanalysis, we have characterized the interannual variation of boreal spring precipitation in the eastern tropical Pacific and found the cause of the observed interannual variability. We have shown that ITCZ in this region can occur as a single ITCZ along the Equator, single ITCZ north of the Equator, single ITCZ south of the Equator, and double ITCZ on both sides of the Equator. We have found that convective instability only plays a secondary role in the ITCZ interannual variability. Instead, the remote impact of the Pacific basin-wide SST on the horizontal gradient of surface pressure and wind convergence is the primary driver of this interannual variability. Results point to the need to include moisture convergence in convection schemes to improve the simulation of precipitation in the eastern tropical Pacific. This result has been recently submitted for publication (Yu and Zhang 2016). 2. Improvement of model parameterizations to reduce the double ITCZ bias We analyzed the current status of climate model performance in simulating precipitation in the equatorial Pacific. We have found that the double ITCZ bias has not been reduced in CMIP5 models relative to CMIP4 models. We have characterized the dynamic structure of the common bias by using precipitation, sea surface temperature, surface winds and sea-level. Results are published in Zhang et al. (2015): Since cumulus convection plays a significant role in the double ITCZ behavior in models, we have used measurements from ARM and other sources to carry out a systematic analysis of the roles of shallow and deep convection in the CAM. We found that in both CAM4 and CAM5, when the intensity of deep convection decreases as a result of parameterization change, the intensity of shallow convection increases, leading to very different changes in precipitation partitions but little change in the total precipitation. The different precipitation partition however can manifest themselves in other measures of model performances including temperature and humidity. This study points to the need to treat model physical parameterizations as integrated system rather than individual components. Results from this study are published in Wang and Zhang (2013). Since shallow convection interacts with the deep convection scheme and surface turbulence to trigger the double ITCZ, we studied methods to improve the shallow convection scheme in climate models. We investigated the bulk budgets of the vertical velocity and its parameterization in convective cores, convective updrafts, and clouds by using large-eddy simulation (LES) of four shallow convection cases including one from ARM. We proposed optimal forms of the Simpson and Wiggert equation to calculate the vertical velocity in bulk mass flux convection schemes for convective cores, convective updrafts, and convective clouds as parameterization schemes. The new scheme is published in Wang and Zhang (2014). By using long-term radar-based ground measurements from ARM, we derived a scale-aware inhomogeneity parameterization of cloud liquid water in climate models. We found a relationship between the inhomogeneity parameter and the model grid size as well as atmospheric stability. This relationship is implemented in the CESM to describe the subgrid-scale cloud inhomogeneity. Relative to the default CESM with the finite-volume dynamic core at 2-degree resolution, the new parameterization leads to smaller cloud inhomogeneity and larger cloud liquid-water path in high latitudes, and the opposite effect in low latitudes, with the regional impact on shortwave cloud radiation effect of up to 10 W/m 2. This is due to both the smaller (larger) grid size in high (low) latitudes in the longitude-latitude grid setting of CESM and the more stable (unstable) atmosphere. This parameterization is expected lead to more realistic simulation of tropical precipitation in high-resolution models. Results from this study are reported in Xie and Zhang (2015).« less

Trends and Controls of inter-annual Variability in the Carbon Budget of Terrestrial Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.

2014-12-01

The climate sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget will substantially affect the sign and strength of the land-climate feedbacks and the future climate trajectories. Current trends in the inter-annual variability of terrestrial carbon fluxes (IAV) may contribute to clarify the relative role of physical and biological controls of ecosystem responses to climate change. For this purpose we investigated how recent climate variability has impacted the carbon fluxes at long-term FLUXNET sites. Using a novel method, the IAV has been factored out in climate induced variability (physical control), variability due to changes in ecosystem functioning (biological control) and the interaction of the two terms. The relative control of the main climatic drivers (temperature, water availability) on the physical and biological sources of IAV has been investigated using both site level fluxes and global gridded products generated from the up-scaling of flux data. Results of this analysis highlight the fundamental role of precipitation trends on the pattern of IAV in the last 30 years. Our findings on the spatial/temporal trends of IAV have been finally confirmed using the signal derived from the global network of atmospheric CO2 concentrations measurements.

Simulation of South-Asian Summer Monsoon in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajayamohan, R. S.

2007-10-01

Major characteristics of Indian summer monsoon climate are analyzed using simulations from the upgraded version of Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The Indian monsoon has been studied in terms of mean precipitation and low-level and upper-level circulation patterns and compared with observations. In addition, the model's fidelity in simulating observed monsoon intraseasonal variability, interannual variability and teleconnection patterns is examined. The model is successful in simulating the major rainbelts over the Indian monsoon region. However, the model exhibits bias in simulating the precipitation bands over the South China Sea and the West Pacific region. Seasonal mean circulation patterns of low-level and upper-level winds are consistent with the model's precipitation pattern. Basic features like onset and peak phase of monsoon are realistically simulated. However, model simulation indicates an early withdrawal of monsoon. Northward propagation of rainbelts over the Indian continent is simulated fairly well, but the propagation is weak over the ocean. The model simulates the meridional dipole structure associated with the monsoon intraseasonal variability realistically. The model is unable to capture the observed interannual variability of monsoon and its teleconnection patterns. Estimate of potential predictability of the model reveals the dominating influence of internal variability over the Indian monsoon region.

Brief Communication: Upper Air Relaxation in RACMO2 Significantly Improves Modelled Interannual Surface Mass Balance Variability in Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

van de Berg, W. J.; Medley, B.

2016-01-01

The Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2) has been a powerful tool for improving surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from GCMs or reanalyses. However, new yearly SMB observations for West Antarctica show that the modelled interannual variability in SMB is poorly simulated by RACMO2, in contrast to ERA-Interim, which resolves this variability well. In an attempt to remedy RACMO2 performance, we included additional upper-air relaxation (UAR) in RACMO2. With UAR, the correlation to observations is similar for RACMO2 and ERA-Interim. The spatial SMB patterns and ice-sheet-integrated SMB modelled using UAR remain very similar to the estimates of RACMO2 without UAR. We only observe an upstream smoothing of precipitation in regions with very steep topography like the Antarctic Peninsula. We conclude that UAR is a useful improvement for regional climate model simulations, although results in regions with steep topography should be treated with care.

Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Bohar; Cash, Ben; Kinter, James L., III

2018-04-01

The representation of the seasonal mean and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models that participated in the North American Multimodal Ensemble (NMME) phase 1 (NMME:1), and in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models participating in the NMME phase 2 (NMME:2) from 1982-2009, is evaluated over the Indo-Pacific domain with May initial conditions. The multi-model ensemble (MME) represents the Indian monsoon rainfall with modest skill and systematic biases. There is no significant improvement in the seasonal forecast skill or interannual variability of ISMR in NMME:2 as compared to NMME:1. The NMME skillfully predicts seasonal mean sea surface temperature (SST) and some of the teleconnections with seasonal mean rainfall. However, the SST-rainfall teleconnections are stronger in the NMME than observed. The NMME is not able to capture the extremes of seasonal mean rainfall and the simulated Indian Ocean-monsoon teleconnections are opposite to what are observed.

Windthrow Variability in Central Amazonia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Negrón-Juárez, Robinson; Jenkins, Hillary; Raupp, Carlos

Windthrows are a recurrent disturbance in Amazonia and are an important driver of forest dynamics and carbon storage. In this study, we present for the first time the seasonal and interannual variability of windthrows, focusing on Central Amazonia, and discuss the potential meteorological factors associated with this variability. Landsat images over the 1998-2010 time period were used to detect the occurrence of windthrows, which were identified based on their spectral characteristics and shape. Here, we found that windthrows occurred every year but were more frequent between September and February. Organized convective activity associated with multicell storms embedded in mesoscale convectivemore » systems, such as northerly squall lines (that move from northeast to southwest) and southerly squall lines (that move from southwest to northeast) can cause windthrows. We also found that southerly squall lines occurred more frequently than their previously reported ~50 year interval. At the interannual scale, we did not find an association between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and windthrows.« less

Interannual variability in ozone removal by a temperate deciduous forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clifton, O. E.; Fiore, A. M.; Munger, J. W.; Malyshev, S.; Horowitz, L. W.; Shevliakova, E.; Paulot, F.; Murray, L. T.; Griffin, K. L.

2017-01-01

The ozone (O3) dry depositional sink and its contribution to observed variability in tropospheric O3 are both poorly understood. Distinguishing O3 uptake through plant stomata versus other pathways is relevant for quantifying the O3 influence on carbon and water cycles. We use a decade of O3, carbon, and energy eddy covariance (EC) fluxes at Harvard Forest to investigate interannual variability (IAV) in O3 deposition velocities (vd,O3). In each month, monthly mean vd,O3 for the highest year is twice that for the lowest. Two independent stomatal conductance estimates, based on either water vapor EC or gross primary productivity, vary little from year to year relative to canopy conductance. We conclude that nonstomatal deposition controls the substantial observed IAV in summertime vd,O3 during the 1990s over this deciduous forest. The absence of obvious relationships between meteorology and vd,O3 implies a need for additional long-term, high-quality measurements and further investigation of nonstomatal mechanisms.

Windthrow Variability in Central Amazonia

DOE PAGES

Negrón-Juárez, Robinson; Jenkins, Hillary; Raupp, Carlos; ...

2017-02-04

Windthrows are a recurrent disturbance in Amazonia and are an important driver of forest dynamics and carbon storage. In this study, we present for the first time the seasonal and interannual variability of windthrows, focusing on Central Amazonia, and discuss the potential meteorological factors associated with this variability. Landsat images over the 1998-2010 time period were used to detect the occurrence of windthrows, which were identified based on their spectral characteristics and shape. Here, we found that windthrows occurred every year but were more frequent between September and February. Organized convective activity associated with multicell storms embedded in mesoscale convectivemore » systems, such as northerly squall lines (that move from northeast to southwest) and southerly squall lines (that move from southwest to northeast) can cause windthrows. We also found that southerly squall lines occurred more frequently than their previously reported ~50 year interval. At the interannual scale, we did not find an association between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and windthrows.« less

Revisiting drought impact on tropical forest photosynthesis: a novel multi-scale integrated approach reveals new insights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Detto, M.; Wu, J.; Xu, X.; Serbin, S.; Rogers, A.

2017-12-01

A fundamental unanswered question for global change ecology is to determine the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate change, particularly with increasing intensity and frequency of drought events. This question, despite its apparent simplicity, remains difficult for earth system models to answer, and is controversial in remote sensing literature. Here, we leverage unique multi-scale remote sensing measurements (from leaf to crown) in conjunction with four-continuous-year (2013-2017) eddy covariance measurements of ecosystem carbon fluxes in a tropical forest in Panama to revisit this question. We hypothesize that drought impacts tropical forest photosynthesis through variation in abiotic drivers (solar radiation, diffuse light fraction, and vapor pressure deficit) that interact with physiological traits that govern photosynthesis, and biotic variation in ecosystem photosynthetic capacity associated with changes in the traits themselves. Our study site, located in a seasonal tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, experienced a significant drought in 2015. Local eddy covariance derived photosynthesis shows an abrupt increase during the drought year. Our specific goal here is to assess the relative impact of abiotic and biotic drivers of such photosynthesis response to interannual drought. To this goal, we derived abiotic drivers from eddy tower-based meteorological measurements. We will derive the biotic drivers using a recently developed leaf demography-ontogeny model, where ecosystem photosynthetic capacity can be described as the product of field measured, age-dependent leaf photosynthetic capacity and local tower-camera derived ecosystem-scale inter-annual variability in leaf age demography of the same time period (2013-2017). Lastly, we will use a process-based model to assess the separate and joint effects of abiotic and biotic drivers on eddy covariance derive photosynthetic interannual variability. Collectively, this novel multi-scale integrated study aims to improve ecophysiological understanding of tropical forest response to interannual climate variability, highlighting the importance to combine state-of-the-art technology and theories to improve future projections of carbon dynamics in the tropics.

A modulating effect of Tropical Instability Wave (TIW)-induced surface wind feedback in a hybrid coupled model of the tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rong-Hua

2016-10-01

Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two air-sea coupling phenomena that are prominent in the tropical Pacific, occurring at vastly different space-time scales. It has been challenging to adequately represent both of these processes within a large-scale coupled climate model, which has led to a poor understanding of the interactions between TIW-induced feedback and ENSO. In this study, a novel modeling system was developed that allows representation of TIW-scale air-sea coupling and its interaction with ENSO. Satellite data were first used to derive an empirical model for TIW-induced sea surface wind stress perturbations (τTIW). The model was then embedded in a basin-wide hybrid-coupled model (HCM) of the tropical Pacific. Because τTIW were internally determined from TIW-scale sea surface temperatures (SSTTIW) simulated in the ocean model, the wind-SST coupling at TIW scales was interactively represented within the large-scale coupled model. Because the τTIW-SSTTIW coupling part of the model can be turned on or off in the HCM simulations, the related TIW wind feedback effects can be isolated and examined in a straightforward way. Then, the TIW-scale wind feedback effects on the large-scale mean ocean state and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific were investigated based on this embedded system. The interactively represented TIW-scale wind forcing exerted an asymmetric influence on SSTs in the HCM, characterized by a mean-state cooling and by a positive feedback on interannual variability, acting to enhance ENSO amplitude. Roughly speaking, the feedback tends to increase interannual SST variability by approximately 9%. Additionally, there is a tendency for TIW wind to have an effect on the phase transition during ENSO evolution, with slightly shortened interannual oscillation periods. Additional sensitivity experiments were performed to elucidate the details of TIW wind effects on SST evolution during ENSO cycles.

Climate Variability and Wildfires: Insights from Global Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Lamarque, J. F.; Wittenberg, A. T.

2016-12-01

Better understanding of the relationship between variability in global climate and emissions from wildfires is needed for predictions of fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Here we investigate this relationship using the long, preindustrial control simulations and historical ensembles of two Earth System models; CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDL ESM2Mb. There is smaller interannual variability of global fires in both models than in present day inventories, especially in boreal regions where observed fires vary substantially from year to year. Patterns of fire response to climate oscillation indices, including the El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO) are explored with the model results and compared to the response derived from satellite measurements and proxy observations. Increases in fire emissions in southeast Asia and boreal North America are associated with positive ENSO and PDO, while United States fires and Sahel fires decrease for the same climate conditions. Boreal fire emissions decrease in CESM1 for the warm phase of the AMO, while ESM2Mb did not produce a reliable AMO. CESM1 produces a weak negative trend in global fire emissions for the period 1920 to 2005, while ESM2Mb produces a positive trend over the same period. Both trends are statistically significant at a confidence level of 95% or greater given the variability derived from the respective preindustrial controls. In addition to climate variability impacts on fires, we also explore the impacts of fire emissions on climate variability and atmospheric chemistry. We analyze three long, free-evolving ESM2Mb simulations; one without fire emissions, one with constant year-over-year fire emissions based on a present day inventory, and one with interannually varying fire emissions coupled between the terrestrial and atmospheric components of the model, to gain a better understanding of the role of fire emissions in climate over long timescales.

Regional contribution to variability and trends of global gross primary productivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Min; Rafique, Rashid; Asrar, Ghassem R.

Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest component of the global carbon cycle and a key process for understanding land ecosystems dynamics. In this study, we used GPP estimates from a combination of eight global biome models participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact-Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP2a), the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP product, and a data-driven product (Model Tree Ensemble, MTE) to study the spatiotemporal variability of GPP at the regional and global levels. We found the 2000-2010 total global GPP estimated from the model ensemble to be 117±13 Pg C yr-1 (mean ± 1 standard deviation), whichmore » was higher than MODIS (112 Pg C yr-1), and close to the MTE (120 Pg C yr-1). The spatial patterns of MODIS, MTE and ISIMIP2a GPP generally agree well, but their temporal trends are different, and the seasonality and inter-annual variability of GPP at the regional and global levels are not completely consistent. For the model ensemble, Tropical Latin America contributes the most to global GPP, Asian regions contribute the most to the global GPP trend, the Northern Hemisphere regions dominate the global GPP seasonal variations, and Oceania is likely the largest contributor to inter-annual variability of global GPP. However, we observed large uncertainties across the eight ISIMIP2a models, which are probably due to the differences in the formulation of underlying photosynthetic processes. The results of this study are useful in understanding the contributions of different regions to global GPP and its spatiotemporal variability, how the model- and observational-based GPP estimates differ from each other in time and space, and the relative strength of the eight models. Our results also highlight the models’ ability to capture the seasonality of GPP that are essential for understanding the inter-annual and seasonal variability of GPP as a major component of the carbon cycle.« less

Regional contribution to variability and trends of global gross primary productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Min; Rafique, Rashid; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Ciais, Philippe; Zhao, Fang; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Ostberg, Sebastian; Chang, Jinfeng; Ito, Akihiko; Yang, Jia; Zeng, Ning; Kalnay, Eugenia; West, Tristram; Leng, Guoyong; Francois, Louis; Munhoven, Guy; Henrot, Alexandra; Tian, Hanqin; Pan, Shufen; Nishina, Kazuya; Viovy, Nicolas; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Betts, Richard; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Steinkamp, Jörg; Hickler, Thomas

2017-10-01

Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest component of the global carbon cycle and a key process for understanding land ecosystems dynamics. In this study, we used GPP estimates from a combination of eight global biome models participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact-Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP2a), the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP product, and a data-driven product (Model Tree Ensemble, MTE) to study the spatiotemporal variability of GPP at the regional and global levels. We found the 2000-2010 total global GPP estimated from the model ensemble to be 117 ± 13 Pg C yr-1 (mean ± 1 standard deviation), which was higher than MODIS (112 Pg C yr-1), and close to the MTE (120 Pg C yr-1). The spatial patterns of MODIS, MTE and ISIMIP2a GPP generally agree well, but their temporal trends are different, and the seasonality and inter-annual variability of GPP at the regional and global levels are not completely consistent. For the model ensemble, Tropical Latin America contributes the most to global GPP, Asian regions contribute the most to the global GPP trend, the Northern Hemisphere regions dominate the global GPP seasonal variations, and Oceania is likely the largest contributor to inter-annual variability of global GPP. However, we observed large uncertainties across the eight ISIMIP2a models, which are probably due to the differences in the formulation of underlying photosynthetic processes. The results of this study are useful in understanding the contributions of different regions to global GPP and its spatiotemporal variability, how the model- and observational-based GPP estimates differ from each other in time and space, and the relative strength of the eight models. Our results also highlight the models’ ability to capture the seasonality of GPP that are essential for understanding the inter-annual and seasonal variability of GPP as a major component of the carbon cycle.

Future Interannual Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Area and its Implications for Marine Navigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vavrus, S. J.; Mioduszewski, J.; Holland, M. M.; Wang, M.; Landrum, L.

2016-12-01

As both a symbol and driver of ongoing climate change, the diminishing Arctic sea ice pack has been widely studied in a variety of contexts. Most research, however, has focused on time-mean changes in sea ice, rather than on short-term variations that also have important physical and societal consequences. In this study we test the hypothesis that interannual Arctic sea ice variability will increase in the future by utilizing a set of 40 independent simulations from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble for the 1920-2100 period. The model projects that ice variability will indeed grow substantially in all months but with a strong seasonal dependence in magnitude and timing. The variability increases most during late autumn (November-December) and least during spring. This increase proceeds in a time-transgressive manner over the course of the year, peaking soonest (2020s) in late-summer months and latest (2090s) during late spring. The variability in every month is inversely correlated with the average melt rate, resulting in an eventual decline in both terms as the ice pack becomes seasonal by late century. These projected changes in sea ice variations will likely have significant consequences for marine navigation, which we assess with the empirical Ice Numeral (IN) metric. A function of ice concentration and thickness, the IN quantifies the difficulty in traversing a transect of sea ice-covered ocean as a function of vessel strength. Our results show that although increasingly open Arctic seas will mean generally more favorable conditions for navigation, the concurrent rise in the variability of ice cover poses a competing risk. In particular, future intervals featuring the most rapid declines in ice area that coincide with the highest interannual ice variations will offer more inviting shipping opportunities tempered by less predictable navigational conditions.

ENSO activity during the last climate cycle using IFA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, Guillaume; Vidal, Laurence; Thirumalai, Kaustubh

2017-04-01

The El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the principal mode of interannual climate variability and affects key climate parameters such as low-latitude rainfall variability. Anticipating future ENSO variability under anthropogenic forcing is vital due to its profound socioeconomic impact. Fossil corals suggest that 20th century ENSO variance is particularly high as compared to other time periods of the Holocene (Cobb et al., 2013, Science), the Last Glacial Maximum (Ford et al., 2015, Science) and the last glacial period (Tudhope et al., 2001, Science). Yet, recent climate modeling experiments suggest an increase in the frequency of both El Niño (Cai et al., 2014, Nature Climate Change) and La Niña (Cai et al., 2015, Nature Climate Change) events. We have expanded an Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA) dataset using the thermocline-dwelling N. dutertrei on a marine core collected in the Panama Basin (Leduc et al., 2009, Paleoceanography), that has proven to be a skillful way to reconstruct the ENSO (Thirumalai et al., 2013, Paleoceanography). Our new IFA dataset comprehensively covers the Holocene, the last deglaciation and Termination II (MIS5/6) time windows. We will also use previously published data from the Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3). Our dataset confirms variable ENSO intensity during the Holocene and weaker activity during LGM than during the Holocene. As a next step, ENSO activity will be discussed with respect to the contrasting climatic background of the analysed time windows (millenial-scale variability, Terminations).

Evidence for increasingly variable Palmer Drought Severity Index in the United States since 1895.

PubMed

Rayne, Sierra; Forest, Kaya

2016-02-15

Annual and summertime trends towards increasingly variable values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over a sub-decadal period (five years) were investigated within the contiguous United States between 1895 and the present. For the contiguous United States as a whole, there is a significant increasing trend in the five-year running minimum-maximum ranges for the annual PDSI (aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range)). During this time frame, the average aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range) has increased by about one full unit, indicating a substantial increase in drought variability over short time scales across the United States. The end members of the running aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range) highlight even more rapid changes in the drought index variability within the past 120 years. This increasing variability in the aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range) is driven primarily by changes taking place in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean coastal climate regions, climate regions which collectively comprise one-third the area of the contiguous United States. Similar trends were found for the annual and summertime Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), the Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI), and the Palmer Z Index (PZI). Overall, interannual drought patterns in the contiguous United States are becoming more extreme and difficult to predict, posing a challenge to agricultural and other water-resource related planning efforts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene variability and the role of insolation, ENSO, and the North American Monsoon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Lesleigh

2012-01-01

Over the period of instrumental records, precipitation maximum in the headwaters of the Colorado Rocky Mountains has been dominated by winter snow, with a substantial degree of interannual variability linked to Pacific ocean–atmosphere dynamics. High-elevation snowpack is an important water storage that is carefully observed in order to meet increasing water demands in the greater semi-arid region. The purpose here is to consider Rocky Mountain water trends during the Holocene when known changes in earth's energy balance were caused by precession-driven insolation variability. Changes in solar insolation are thought to have influenced the variability and intensity of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North American Monsoon and the seasonal precipitation balance between rain and snow at upper elevations. Holocene records are presented from two high elevation lakes located in northwest Colorado that document decade-to-century scale precipitation seasonality for the past ~ 7000 years. Comparisons with sub-tropical records of ENSO indicate that the snowfall-dominated precipitation maxima developed ~ 3000 and 4000 years ago, coincident with evidence for enhanced ENSO/PDO dynamics. During the early-to-mid Holocene the records suggest a more monsoon affected precipitation regime with reduced snowpack, more rainfall, and net moisture deficits that were more severe than recent droughts. The Holocene perspective of precipitation indicates a far broader range of variability than that of the past century and highlights the non-linear character of hydroclimate in the U.S. west.

Spatial variability of Chinook salmon spawning distribution and habitat preferences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cram, Jeremy M.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Klett, Ryan S.; Pess, George R.; May, Darran; Pearsons, Todd N.; Dittman, Andrew H.

2017-01-01

We investigated physical habitat conditions associated with the spawning sites of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and the interannual consistency of spawning distribution across multiple spatial scales using a combination of spatially continuous and discrete sampling methods. We conducted a census of aquatic habitat in 76 km of the upper main-stem Yakima River in Washington and evaluated spawning site distribution using redd survey data from 2004 to 2008. Interannual reoccupation of spawning areas was high, ranging from an average Pearson’s correlation of 0.62 to 0.98 in channel subunits and 10-km reaches, respectively. Annual variance in the interannual correlation of spawning distribution was highest in channel units and subunits, but it was low at reach scales. In 13 of 15 models developed for individual years (2004–2008) and reach lengths (800 m, 3 km, 6 km), stream power and depth were the primary predictors of redd abundance. Multiple channels and overhead cover were patchy but were important secondary and tertiary predictors of reach-scale spawning site selection. Within channel units and subunits, pool tails and thermal variability, which may be associated with hyporheic exchange, were important predictors of spawning. We identified spawning habitat preferences within reaches and channel units that are relevant for salmonid habitat restoration planning. We also identified a threshold (i.e., 2-km reaches) beyond which interannual spawning distribution was markedly consistent, which may be informative for prioritizing habitat restoration or conservation. Management actions may be improved through enhanced understanding of spawning habitat preferences and the consistency with which Chinook Salmon reoccupy spawning areas at different spatial scales.

The role of ecosystem memory in predicting inter-annual variations of the tropical carbon balance.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloom, A. A.; Liu, J.; Bowman, K. W.; Konings, A. G.; Saatchi, S.; Worden, J. R.; Worden, H. M.; Jiang, Z.; Parazoo, N.; Williams, M. D.; Schimel, D.

2017-12-01

Understanding the trajectory of the tropical carbon balance remains challenging, in part due to large uncertainties in the integrated response of carbon cycle processes to climate variability. Satellite observations atmospheric CO2 from GOSAT and OCO-2, together with ancillary satellite measurements, provide crucial constraints on continental-scale terrestrial carbon fluxes. However, an integrated understanding of both climate forcings and legacy effects (or "ecosystem memory") on the terrestrial carbon balance is ultimately needed to reduce uncertainty on its future trajectory. Here we use the CARbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) diagnostic model-data fusion approach - constrained by an array of C cycle satellite surface observations, including MODIS leaf area, biomass, GOSAT solar-induced fluorescence, as well as "top-down" atmospheric inversion estimates of CO2 and CO surface fluxes from the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) - to constrain and predict spatially-explicit tropical carbon state variables during 2010-2015. We find that the combined assimilation of land surface and atmospheric datasets places key constraints on the temperature sensitivity and first order carbon-water feedbacks throughout the tropics and combustion factors within biomass burning regions. By varying the duration of the assimilation period, we find that the prediction skill on inter-annual net biospheric exchange is primarily limited by record length rather than model structure and process representation. We show that across all tropical biomes, quantitative knowledge of memory effects - which account for 30-50% of interannual variations across the tropics - is critical for understanding and ultimately predicting the inter-annual tropical carbon balance.

Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5-day-planetary-waves in MLT observed by TIMED/SABER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yingying; Li, Huijun; Li, Chongyin; Zhang, Shaodong

2017-04-01

Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DWs in 20-110 km, 52°S-52°N, 2002-2016 are studied by using v2.0 TIMED/SABER kinetic temperature data. Firstly, global annual variations of 6.5DW's spectral power and amplitudes are obtained. Strong wave amplitudes emerge in 30°S/N-50°S/N, and peaks in altitude separate in stratosphere (40-50 km), mesosphere (80-90 km) and the lower thermosphere (100-110 km), respectively. Their annual variations are similar in both hemispheres, but different in altitude. In 40-50 km, the annual maximums emerge mostly in winters: Dec.-Jan. in the NH and Jul.-Aug. in the SH. In MLT, annual peaks arise twice in each half of year. In 80-90 km, they're mainly in equinoctial seasons and winters: May, Aug.-Sep. and Jan. in the NH and Feb., Nov. and May in the SH. In 100-110 km, they emerge mainly in equinoctial seasons: Apr.-May and Aug.-Sep. in the NH and Feb.-Mar. and Oct.-Nov. in the SH. Then, inter-annual variations of 6.5DW amplitudes during the 14-year period are studied. Frequency spectra of monthly-mean amplitudes show that, main dynamics in long-term variations of 6.5DWs are AO and SAO in both hemispheres. Besides, QBO are visible in both hemispheres and 4-month period signals are noticed in the NH in MLT. Amplitudes of SAO, AO and QBO are obtained by bandpass filter. Their amplitudes are comparable in stratosphere and mesosphere, and QBO signals are weaker than the others in the LT. Vertical variations both of SAO and AO amplitudes are very stable. AO structures have little inter-annual changes, while inter-annual variations of SAO are significant and are related with 6.5DW. It means that annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DW are mainly controlled by AO and SAO, respectively. Although QBO signals are weaker and their variations are less regular than AO and SAO, their phases seems to relate with inter-annual variations of 6.5DW as well.

Interannual variability of the global net radiation balance and its consequence on global energy transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Sohn, B. J.

1990-01-01

Global cloudiness and radiation budget data from Nimbus 6 and 7 are used to investigate the role of cloud and surface radiative forcing and elements of the earth's general circulation. Although globally integrated cloud forcing is nearly zero, there are large regional imbalances and well regulated processes in the shortwave and longwave spectrum that control the meridional gradient structure of the net radiation balance and the factors modulating the east-west oriented North Africa-western Pacific energy transport dipole. The analysis demonstrates that clouds play a dual role in both the shortwave and longwave spectra in terms of tropical and midlatitude east-west gradients. The key result is that cloud forcing, although not always the principle regulator of interannual variability of the global climate, serves to reinforce the basic three-cell meridional circulation.

Inter-model Diversity of ENSO simulation and its relation to basic states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kug, J. S.; Ham, Y. G.

2016-12-01

In this study, a new methodology is developed to improve the climate simulation of state-of-the-art coupledglobal climate models (GCMs), by a postprocessing based on the intermodel diversity. Based on the closeconnection between the interannual variability and climatological states, the distinctive relation between theintermodel diversity of the interannual variability and that of the basic state is found. Based on this relation,the simulated interannual variabilities can be improved, by correcting their climatological bias. To test thismethodology, the dominant intermodel difference in precipitation responses during El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) is investigated, and its relationship with climatological state. It is found that the dominantintermodel diversity of the ENSO precipitation in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) is associated with the zonal shift of the positive precipitation center during El Niño. This dominantintermodel difference is significantly correlated with the basic states. The models with wetter (dryer) climatologythan the climatology of the multimodel ensemble (MME) over the central Pacific tend to shift positiveENSO precipitation anomalies to the east (west). Based on the model's systematic errors in atmosphericENSO response and bias, the models with better climatological state tend to simulate more realistic atmosphericENSO responses.Therefore, the statistical method to correct the ENSO response mostly improves the ENSO response. Afterthe statistical correction, simulating quality of theMMEENSO precipitation is distinctively improved. Theseresults provide a possibility that the present methodology can be also applied to improving climate projectionand seasonal climate prediction.

Interannual hydroclimatic variability and the 2009-2011 extreme ENSO phases in Colombia: from Andean glaciers to Caribbean lowlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedoya-Soto, Juan Mauricio; Poveda, Germán; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Vélez-Upegui, Jorge Julián

2018-03-01

During 2009-2011, Colombia experienced extreme hydroclimatic events associated with the extreme phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we study the dynamics of diverse land-atmosphere phenomena involved in such anomalous events at continental, regional, and local scales. Standardized anomalies of precipitation, 2-m temperature, total column water (TCW), volumetric soil water (VSW), temperature at 925 hPa, surface sensible heat (SSH), latent heat (SLH), evaporation (EVP), and liquid water equivalent thickness (LWET) are analyzed to assess atmosphere-land controls and relationships over tropical South America (TropSA) during 1986-2013 (long term) and 2009-2011 (ENSO extreme phases). An assessment of the interannual covariability between precipitation and 2-m temperature is performed using singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify the dominant spatiotemporal modes of hydroclimatic variability over the region's largest river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Tocantins, Magdalena-Cauca, and Essequibo). ENSO, its evolution in time, and strong and consistent spatial structures emerge as the dominant mode of variability. In situ anomalies during both extreme phases of ENSO 2009-2011 over the Magdalena-Cauca River basins are linked at the continental scale. The ENSO-driven hydroclimatic effects extend from the diurnal cycle to interannual timescales, as reflected in temperature data from tropical glaciers and the rain-snow boundary in the highest peaks of the Central Andes of Colombia to river levels along the Caribbean lowlands of the Magdalena-Cauca River basin.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Variations/Changes in Daily Precipitation Extremes Derived from Satellite-Based Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, G.; Adler, R. F.

2017-12-01

Interannual/decadal-scale variations/changes in daily precipitation extremes are investigated by means of satellite-based high-spatiotemporal resolution precipitation products, including TRMM-TMPA, PERSIANN-CDR-Daily, GPCP 1DD, etc. Extreme precipitation indices at grids are first defined, including the maximum daily precipitation amount (Rx1day), the simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), the conditional (Rcond) daily precipitation rate (Pr>0 mm day-1), and monthly frequencies of rainy (FOCc) and wet (FOCw) days. Other two precipitation intensity indices, i.e., mean daily precipitation rates for Pr ≥10 mm day-1 (Pr10II) and for Pr ≥ 20 mm day-1 (Pr20II), are also constructed. Consistency analyses of daily extreme indices among these data sets are then performed by comparing corresponding averages over large domains such as tropical (30oN-30oS) land, ocean, land+ocean, for their common period (post-1997). This can provide a preliminary uncertainty analysis of these data sets in describing daily extreme precipitation events. Discrepancies can readily be found among these products regarding the magnitudes of area-averaged extreme indices. However, generally consistent temporal variations can be found among the indices derived from different satellite products. Interannual variability in daily precipitation extremes are then examined and compared at grids by exploring their relations with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Linear correlation and composite analyses are used to examine the impact of ENSO on these extreme indices at grids and over large domains during the post-1997 period. Decadal-scale variability/change in daily extreme events is further examined by using the PERSIANN-CDR-Daily that can cover the entire post-1983 period, based on its general consistency with other two products during the post-1979 period. We specifically focus on exploring and discriminating the effects of decadal-scale internal variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and anthropogenic forcings including the greenhouse-gases (GHG) related warming. Comparisons are also made over global land with the results from two gridded daily rain-gauge products, GPCC Full-record daily (1988-2013) and NOAA/CPC Unified daily (1979-present).

Characterizing flow regimes for floodplain forest conservation: An assessment of factors affecting sapling growth and survivorship on three cold desert rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andersen, D.C.

2005-01-01

I analyzed annual height growth and survivorship of Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii S. Watson) saplings on three floodplains in Colorado and Utah to assess responses to interannual variation in flow regime and summer precipitation. Mammal exclosures, supplemented with an insecticide treatment at one site, were used to assess flow regime – herbivore interactions. Multiple regression analyses on data collected over 7–11 years indicated that growth of continuously injury-free saplings was positively related to either peak discharge or the maximum 30-day discharge but was not related to interannual decline in the late-summer river stage (ΔWMIN) or precipitation. Growth was fastest where ΔWMIN was smallest and depth to the late-summer water table moderate (≤1.5 m). Survivorship increased with ΔWMIN where the water table was at shallow depths. Herbivory reduced long-term height growth and survivorship by up to 60% and 50%, respectively. The results support the concept that flow history and environmental context determine whether a particular flow will have a net positive or negative influence on growth and survivorship and suggest that the flow regime that best promotes sapling growth and survival along managed rivers features a short spring flood pulse and constant base flow, with no interannual variation in the hydrograph. Because environmental contexts vary, interannual variation may be necessary for best overall stand performance.

Future changes of interannual variation of the Asian summer monsoon precipitation using the CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamizawa, Nozomi; Takahashi, Hiroshi G.

2015-04-01

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region is one of the most populated areas in the world. Since the life of people who live in the region and the industry are strongly dependent on the ASM precipitation, it is interested that how it would change under the circumstance of global warming. Many studies have reported that the mean ASM precipitation would increase by comparing the CMIP models' climatology. Although the changes in mean climate are important, the long-term changes of interannual variability in precipitation are also significant. This study investigated the long-term trend of interannual precipitation variation over the ASM region by using 22 CMIP5 models. The RCP4.5 scenario was used. To investigate the long-term trend of the interannual variation of the ASM precipitation, each model data was recreated to 2.5 degree resolution and a running standard deviation for 21 years of June-July-August (JJA) precipitation were calculated. Next, we created the coefficient variation (CV) by dividing the running standard deviation by the mean JJA precipitation. Then we run a Mann-Kendall test for the CV at each grid. There were more areas which were indicated a statistically significant increasing trend than a decreasing trend in the ASM region. 40.6% of the region indicated an increasing trend in the future. On the other hand, 16.8% of the area was indicated to have a decreasing trend. It was also common in the global scale that the there were more areas that indicated an increasing trend than a decreasing trend. We also divided the area into three groups: land, shore and open ocean. In the ASM region, the shore areas particularly had an increasing CV trend. To investigate the long-term changes of the interannual variability of the precipitation and the atmospheric circulation over the ASM region, we conducted a composite analysis for the five wettest and driest years for two periods: the early 21st century (2007-2031) and the late 21st century (2076-2100). The special patterns of the interannual variation of the precipitation and the atmospheric circulation between the two periods had differed only slightly. A positive deviation precipitation band with a cyclonic circulation was recognized from across the Bay of Bengal to the equatorial Northwest Pacific. The none-big-difference of the patterns may suggest that interannual variation in the ASM region would increase not because the pattern changes, but because the pattern's strength gets stronger or its frequency gets higher.

Precipitation and carbon-water coupling jointly control the interannual variability of global land gross primary production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Guanter, Luis; Zhou, Sha; Ciais, Philippe; Joiner, Joanna; Sitch, Stephen; Wu, Xiaocui; Nabel, Julia; Dong, Jinwei; Kato, Etsushi; Jain, Atul K.; Wiltshire, Andy; Stocker, Benjamin D.

2016-12-01

Carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is increasing along with the rising of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Embedded in this trend, recent studies suggested that the interannual variability (IAV) of global carbon fluxes may be dominated by semi-arid ecosystems, but the underlying mechanisms of this high variability in these specific regions are not well known. Here we derive an ensemble of gross primary production (GPP) estimates using the average of three data-driven models and eleven process-based models. These models are weighted by their spatial representativeness of the satellite-based solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF). We then use this weighted GPP ensemble to investigate the GPP variability for different aridity regimes. We show that semi-arid regions contribute to 57% of the detrended IAV of global GPP. Moreover, in regions with higher GPP variability, GPP fluctuations are mostly controlled by precipitation and strongly coupled with evapotranspiration (ET). This higher GPP IAV in semi-arid regions is co-limited by supply (precipitation)-induced ET variability and GPP-ET coupling strength. Our results demonstrate the importance of semi-arid regions to the global terrestrial carbon cycle and posit that there will be larger GPP and ET variations in the future with changes in precipitation patterns and dryland expansion.

Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise

PubMed Central

van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M.

2011-01-01

The relative importance of environmental colour for extinction risk compared with other aspects of environmental noise (mean and interannual variability) is poorly understood. Such knowledge is currently relevant, as climate change can cause the mean, variability and temporal autocorrelation of environmental variables to change. Here, we predict that the extinction risk of a shorebird population increases with the colour of a key environmental variable: winter temperature. However, the effect is weak compared with the impact of changes in the mean and interannual variability of temperature. Extinction risk was largely insensitive to noise colour, because demographic rates are poor in tracking the colour of the environment. We show that three mechanisms—which probably act in many species—can cause poor environmental tracking: (i) demographic rates that depend nonlinearly on environmental variables filter the noise colour, (ii) demographic rates typically depend on several environmental signals that do not change colour synchronously, and (iii) demographic stochasticity whitens the colour of demographic rates at low population size. We argue that the common practice of assuming perfect environmental tracking may result in overemphasizing the importance of noise colour for extinction risk. Consequently, ignoring environmental autocorrelation in population viability analysis could be less problematic than generally thought. PMID:21561978

Precipitation and Carbon-Water Coupling Jointly Control the Interannual Variability of Global Land Gross Primary Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Guanter, Luis; Zhou, Sha; Ciais, Philippe; Joiner, Joanna; Sitch, Stephen; Wu, Xiaocui; Nabel, Julian; Dong, Jinwei;

Variability of Extreme Precipitation Events in Tijuana, Mexico During ENSO Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavazos, T.; Rivas, D.

2007-05-01

We present the variability of daily precipitation extremes (top 10 percecnt) in Tijuana, Mexico during 1950-2000. Interannual rainfall variability is significantly modulated by El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The interannual precipitation variability exhibits a large change with a relatively wet period and more variability during 1976- 2000. The wettest years and the largest frequency of daily extremes occurred after 1976-1977, with 6 out of 8 wet years characterized by El Nino episodes and 2 by neutral conditions. However, more than half of the daily extremes during 1950-2000 occurred in non-ENSO years, evidencing that neutral conditions also contribute significantly to extreme climatic variability in the region. Extreme events that occur in neutral (strong El Nino) conditions are associated with a pineapple express and a neutral PNA (negative TNH) teleconnection pattern that links an anomalous tropical convective forcing west (east) of the date line with a strong subtropical jet over the study area. At regional scale, both types of extremes are characterized by a trough in the subtropical jet over California/Baja California, which is further intensified by thermal interaction with an anomalous warm California Current off Baja California, low-level moisture advection from the subtropical warm sea-surface region, intense convective activity over the study area and extreme rainfall from southern California to Baja California.

Trophic status drives interannual variability in nesting numbers of marine turtles.

PubMed

Broderick, A C; Godley, B J; Hays, G C

2001-07-22

Large annual fluctuations are seen in breeding numbers in many populations of non-annual breeders. We examined the interannual variation in nesting numbers of populations of green (Chelonia mydas) (n = 16 populations), loggerhead (Caretta caretta) (n = 10 populations), leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) (n = 9 populations) and hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) (n = 10 populations). Interannual variation was greatest in the green turtle. When comparing green and loggerhead turtles nesting in Cyprus we found that green turtles were more likely to change the interval between laying seasons and showed greater variation in the number of clutches laid in a season. We suggest that these differences are driven by the varying trophic statuses of the different species. Green turtles are herbivorous, feeding on sea grasses and macro-algae, and this primary production will be more tightly coupled with prevailing environmental conditions than the carnivorous diet of the loggerhead turtle.

Southern Hemisphere origins for interannual variations of Tibetan Plateau snow cover in boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Z.

2017-12-01

The climate response to the Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow cover (TPSC) has been receiving extensive concern. However, relatively few studies have devoted to revealing the potential factors that can contribute to the TPSC variability on the interannual time scale. Especially during the boreal summer, snow cover can persist over the TP at high elevations, which exerts profound influences on the local and remote climate change. The present study finds that May Southern Hemisphere (SH) annular mode (SAM), the dominating mode of atmospheric circulation variability in the SH extratropics, exhibits a significant positive relationship with the boreal summer TPSC interannual variability. Observational analysis and numerical experiments manifest that the signal of May SAM can be "prolonged" by a meridional Indian Ocean tripole (IOT) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) via atmosphere-ocean interaction. The IOT SSTA pattern persists into the following summer and excites anomalous local-scale zonal vertical circulation. Subsequently, a positive (or negative) tropical dipole rainfall (TDR) mode is induced with deficient (or sufficient) precipitation in tropical western Indian Ocean and sufficient (or deficient) precipitation in eastern Indian Ocean-Maritime continent. Rossby wave source diagnosis reveals that the wave energies, generated by the latent heat release of the TDR mode, propagate northward into western TP. As a response, abnormal cyclonic circulation and upward movement are triggered and prevail over western TP, providing favorable dynamical conditions for more TPSC, and vice versa. Hence, the IOT SSTA plays an "ocean bridge" role and the TDR mode acts as an "atmosphere bridge" role in the process of May SAM impacting the following summer TPSC variability. The results of our work may provide new insight about the cross-equatorial propagation of the SAM influence. Keywords Southern Hemisphere annular mode; Tibetan Plateau snow cover; Rossby wave source

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. HBut, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDLmore » ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. In addition, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.« less

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Wittenberg, A. T.

2016-12-01

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. However, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDL ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. Additionally, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.

On the fog variability over south Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syed, F. S.; Körnich, H.; Tjernström, M.

2012-12-01

An increasing trend in fog frequencies over south Asia during winter in the last few decades has resulted in large economical losses and has caused substantial difficulties in the daily lives of people. In order to better understand the fog phenomenon, we investigated the climatology, inter-annual variability and trends in the fog occurrence from 1976 to 2010 using observational data from 82 stations, well distributed over India and Pakistan. Fog blankets large area from Pakistan to Bangladesh across north India from west to east running almost parallel to south of the Himalayas. An EOF analysis revealed that the fog variability over the whole region is coupled and therefore must be governed by some large scale phenomenon on the inter-annual time scale. Significant positive trends were found in the fog frequency but this increase is not gradual, as with the humidity, but comprises of two distinct regimes shifts, in 1990 and 1998, with respect to both mean and variance. The fog is also detected in ERA-Interim 3 hourly, surface and model level forecast data when using the concept of "cross-over temperature" combined with boundary layer stability. This fog index is able to reproduce the regime shift around 1998 and shows that the method can be applied to analyze fog over south Asia. The inter-annual variability seems to be associated with the wave train originating from the North Atlantic in the upper troposphere that when causing higher pressure over the region results in an increased boundary layer stability and surface-near relative humidity. The trend and shifts in the fog occurrence seems to be associated with the gradual increasing trend in relative humidity from 1990 onwards.

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

DOE PAGES

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; ...

2016-12-02

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. HBut, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDLmore » ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. In addition, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.« less

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 1: Reexamination of observational evidence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tung, K.K.; Yang, H.

1994-10-01

Observational evidence for a global quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) pattern is reviewed. In particular, the presence of an extratropical, as well as an equatorial, component of the QBO signal in column ozone is established. It is found that the ozone interannual variability is such that as one moves away from the Tropics, the frequency spectrum of the anomaly changes from one that is dominated by the equatorial QBO frequency of 1/30 mo to a two-peak spectrum around the two frequencies: 1/30 mo and 1/20 mo. Instead of treating the 1/20 mo frequency as a separate phenomenon to be filtered away inmore » extracting the QBO in the extratropics, as was previously done, the authors argue that both peaks are integral parts of the extratropical QBO phenomenon. The 1/20 mo frequency happens to be the difference combination of the QBO frequency 1/30 mo and the annual frequency 1/12 mo. Therefore, it can represent the result of the QBO modulating an annual cycle. The authors suggest that previous methods of extracting the extratropical QBO signal severely underestimated the contribution of the QBO to the interannual variability of ozone when data are filtered to pass only the component with the period of equatorial QBO. Further, it is argued that the transport of equatorial QBO ozone anomaly by a non-QBO circulation can at most account for 6-8 Dobson units (DU) of the observed interannual variability of column ozone in the extratropics. The remaining variability (up to 20 DU) probably cannot be produced without an anomaly in the transporting circulation in the extratropics.« less

Source Attribution and Interannual Variability of Arctic Pollution in Spring Constrained by Aircraft (ARCTAS, ARCPAC) and Satellite (AIRS) Observations of Carbon Monoxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, J. A.; Jacob, D. J.; Purdy, M. T.; Kopacz, M.; LeSager, P.; Carouge, C.; Holmes, C. D.; Yantosca, R. M.; Batchelor, R. L.; Strong, K.;

Time series pCO2 at a coastal mooring: Internal consistency, seasonal cycles, and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reimer, Janet J.; Cai, Wei-Jun; Xue, Liang; Vargas, Rodrigo; Noakes, Scott; Hu, Xinping; Signorini, Sergio R.; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Feely, Richard A.; Sutton, Adrienne J.; Sabine, Christopher; Musielewicz, Sylvia; Chen, Baoshan; Wanninkhof, Rik

2017-08-01

Marine carbonate system monitoring programs often consist of multiple observational methods that include underway cruise data, moored autonomous time series, and discrete water bottle samples. Monitored parameters include all, or some of the following: partial pressure of CO2 of the water (pCO2w) and air, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA), and pH. Any combination of at least two of the aforementioned parameters can be used to calculate the others. In this study at the Gray's Reef (GR) mooring in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) we: examine the internal consistency of pCO2w from underway cruise, moored autonomous time series, and calculated from bottle samples (DIC-TA pairing); describe the seasonal to interannual pCO2w time series variability and air-sea flux (FCO2), as well as describe the potential sources of pCO2w variability; and determine the source/sink for atmospheric pCO2. Over the 8.5 years of GR mooring time series, mooring-underway and mooring-bottle calculated-pCO2w strongly correlate with r-values > 0.90. pCO2w and FCO2 time series follow seasonal thermal patterns; however, seasonal non-thermal processes, such as terrestrial export, net biological production, and air-sea exchange also influence variability. The linear slope of time series pCO2w increases by 5.2 ± 1.4 μatm y-1 with FCO2 increasing 51-70 mmol m-2 y-1. The net FCO2 sign can switch interannually with the magnitude varying greatly. Non-thermal pCO2w is also increasing over the time series, likely indicating that terrestrial export and net biological processes drive the long term pCO2w increase.

A new diagnostic of stratospheric polar vortices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimeno, Luis; de La Torre, Laura; Nieto, Raquel; Gallego, David; Ribera, Pedro; García-Herrera, Ricardo

2007-11-01

We studied the main climatological features of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric vortices, using a new approach based on defining the vortex edge as the 50 hPa geostrophic streamline of maximum average velocity at each hemisphere. Given the use of NCAR-NCEP reanalysis data, it was thought advisable to limit the study to the periods 1958 2004 for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and 1979 2004 for the Southern Hemisphere (SH). After describing the method and testing sample results with those from other approaches, we analysed the climatological means and trends of the four most distinctive characteristics of the vortices: average latitude, strength, area, and temperature. In general terms, our results confirm most of what is already known about the stratospheric vortices from previous studies that used different data and approaches. In addition, the new methodology provides some interesting new quantifications of the dominant wavenumber and its interannual variability, as well as the principal variability modes through an empirical orthogonal function analysis that was performed directly over the vortex trajectories. The main drawbacks of the methodology, such as noticeable problems characterising highly disturbed stratospheric structures as multiple or off-pole vortices, are also identified.

Optimizing cropland cover for stable food production in Sub-Saharan Africa using simulated yield and Modern Portfolio Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodin, P.; Olin, S.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Arneth, A.

2014-12-01

Food security can be defined as stable access to food of good nutritional quality. In Sub Saharan Africa access to food is strongly linked to local food production and the capacity to generate enough calories to sustain the local population. Therefore it is important in these regions to generate not only sufficiently high yields but also to reduce interannual variability in food production. Traditionally, climate impact simulation studies have focused on factors that underlie maximum productivity ignoring the variability in yield. By using Modern Portfolio Theory, a method stemming from economics, we here calculate optimum current and future crop selection that maintain current yield while minimizing variance, vs. maintaining variance while maximizing yield. Based on simulated yield using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model, the results show that current cropland distribution for many crops is close to these optimum distributions. Even so, the optimizations displayed substantial potential to either increase food production and/or to decrease its variance regionally. Our approach can also be seen as a method to create future scenarios for the sown areas of crops in regions where local food production is important for food security.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guilderson, T P; Grumet, N S; Abram, N J

Radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) in the skeletal aragonite of annually banded corals track radiocarbon concentrations in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in surface seawater. As a result of nuclear weapons testing in the 1950s, oceanic uptake of excess {sup 14}C in the atmosphere has increased the contrast between surface and deep ocean {sup 14}C concentrations. We present accelerator mass spectrometric (AMS) measurements of radiocarbon isotope ({Delta}{sup 14}C) in Porites corals from the Mentawai Islands, Sumatra (0 S, 98 E) and Watamu, Kenya (3 S, 39 E) to document the temporal and spatial evolution of the {sup 14}C gradient in the tropical Indianmore » Ocean. The rise in {Delta}{sup 14}C in the Sumatra coral, in response to the maximum in nuclear weapons testing, is delayed by 2-3 years relative to the rise in coral {Delta}{sup 14}C from the coast of Kenya. Kenya coral {Delta}{sup 14}C values rise quickly because surface waters are in prolonged contact with the atmosphere. In contrast, wind-induced upwelling and rapid mixing along the coast of Sumatra entrains {sup 14}C-depleted water from the subsurface, which dilutes the effect of the uptake of bomb-laden {sup 14}C by the surface-ocean. Bimonthly AMS {Delta}{sup 14}C measurements on the Mentawai coral reveal mainly interannual variability with minor seasonal variability. The interannual signal may be a response to changes in the Walker circulation, the development of easterly wind anomalies, shoaling of the eastern thermocline, and upwelling of {sup 14}C-depleted water along the coast of Sumatra. Singular spectrum analysis of the Sumatra coral {Delta}{sup 14}C record reveals a significant 3-year periodicity. The results lend support to the concept that ocean atmosphere interactions between the Pacific and Indian Oceans operate in concert with the El Ni{tilde n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).« less

Variability of Winter Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, R.; Bungato, D.; Cierniewski, J.; Jusem, J. C.; Przybylak, R.; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Walczewski, J.

2002-01-01

The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud cover and precipitable water are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis.

Empirically constrained estimates of Alaskan regional Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2, 2012-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Commane, R.; Lindaas, J.; Benmergui, J. S.; Luus, K. A.; Chang, R. Y. W.; Miller, S. M.; Henderson, J.; Karion, A.; Miller, J. B.; Sweeney, C.; Miller, C. E.; Lin, J. C.; Oechel, W. C.; Zona, D.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Iwata, H.; Ueyama, M.; Harazono, Y.; Veraverbeke, S.; Randerson, J. T.; Daube, B. C.; Pittman, J. V.; Wofsy, S. C.

2015-12-01

We present data-driven estimates of the regional net ecosystem exchange of CO2 across Alaska for three years (2012-2014) derived from CARVE (Carbon in the Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment) aircraft measurements. Integrating optimized estimates of annual NEE, we find that the Alaskan region was a small sink of CO2 during 2012 and 2014, but a significant source of CO2 in 2013, even before including emissions from the large forest fire season during 2013. We investigate the drivers of this interannual variability, and the larger spring and fall emissions of CO2 in 2013. To determine the optimized fluxes, we couple the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (PWRF) model with the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model, to produce footprints of surface influence that we convolve with a remote-sensing driven model of NEE across Alaska, the Polar Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (Polar-VPRM). For each month we calculate a spatially explicit additive flux (ΔF) by minimizing the difference between the measured profiles of the aircraft CO2 data and the modeled profiles, using a framework that combines a uniform correction at regional scales and a Bayesian inversion of residuals at smaller scales. A rigorous estimate of total uncertainty (including atmospheric transport, measurement error, etc.) was made with a combination of maximum likelihood estimation and Monte Carlo error propagation. Our optimized fluxes are consistent with other measurements on multiple spatial scales, including CO2 mixing ratios from the CARVE Tower near Fairbanks and eddy covariance flux towers in both boreal and tundra ecosystems across Alaska. For times outside the aircraft observations (Dec-April) we use the un-optimized polar-VPRM, which has shown good agreement with both tall towers and eddy flux data outside the growing season. This approach allows us to robustly estimate the annual CO2 budget for Alaska and investigate the drivers of both the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of CO2 for the region.