Random versus maximum entropy models of neural population activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrari, Ulisse; Obuchi, Tomoyuki; Mora, Thierry

2017-04-01

The principle of maximum entropy provides a useful method for inferring statistical mechanics models from observations in correlated systems, and is widely used in a variety of fields where accurate data are available. While the assumptions underlying maximum entropy are intuitive and appealing, its adequacy for describing complex empirical data has been little studied in comparison to alternative approaches. Here, data from the collective spiking activity of retinal neurons is reanalyzed. The accuracy of the maximum entropy distribution constrained by mean firing rates and pairwise correlations is compared to a random ensemble of distributions constrained by the same observables. For most of the tested networks, maximum entropy approximates the true distribution better than the typical or mean distribution from that ensemble. This advantage improves with population size, with groups as small as eight being almost always better described by maximum entropy. Failure of maximum entropy to outperform random models is found to be associated with strong correlations in the population.

Thermodynamics and Human Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordry, Sean M.

2010-09-01

This paper discusses a Fermi-problem exercise through which I take students in several of my college courses. Students work in teams, determining the average daily Caloric needs per person. Then they use insolation values to determine the size of a collection area needed to absorb the previously determined daily energy requirements. Adjustments to the size of the collection area are made based on energy absorption per biological trophic level, as well as the consideration that most diets are a mixture of plant- and animal-derived elements. Finally, using the total amount of farmland available on the planet, students calculate a maximum population value. Although the maximum population values derived herewith should not be considered authoritative, the exercise has three beneficial purposes: 1) a chance to talk about the modeling process and extrapolations, 2) an unexpected application of physics to social contexts, and 3) raising student awareness of population and energy issues.

Population variation and individual maximum size in two leech populations: energy extraction from cannibalism or niche widening?

PubMed

Persson, Lennart; Elliott, J Malcolm

2013-05-01

The theory of cannibal dynamics predicts a link between population dynamics and individual life history. In particular, increased individual growth has, in both modeling and empirical studies, been shown to result from a destabilization of population dynamics. We used data from a long-term study of the dynamics of two leech (Erpobdella octoculata) populations to test the hypothesis that maximum size should be higher in a cycling population; one of the study populations exhibited a delayed feedback cycle while the other population showed no sign of cyclicity. A hump-shaped relationship between individual mass of 1-year-old leeches and offspring density the previous year was present in both populations. As predicted from the theory, the maximum mass of individuals was much larger in the fluctuating population. In contrast to predictions, the higher growth rate was not related to energy extraction from cannibalism. Instead, the higher individual mass is suggested to be due to increased availability of resources due to a niche widening with increased individual body mass. The larger individual mass in the fluctuating population was related to a stronger correlation between the densities of 1-year-old individuals and 2-year-old individuals the following year in this population. Although cannibalism was the major mechanism regulating population dynamics, its importance was negligible in terms of providing cannibalizing individuals with energy subsequently increasing their fecundity. Instead, the study identifies a need for theoretical and empirical studies on the largely unstudied interplay between ontogenetic niche shifts and cannibalistic population dynamics.

Rule reversal: Ecogeographical patterns of body size variation in the common treeshrew (Mammalia, Scandentia)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sargis, Eric J.; Millien, Virginie; Woodman, Neal; Olson, Link E.

2018-01-01

There are a number of ecogeographical “rules” that describe patterns of geographical variation among organisms. The island rule predicts that populations of larger mammals on islands evolve smaller mean body size than their mainland counterparts, whereas smaller‐bodied mammals evolve larger size. Bergmann's rule predicts that populations of a species in colder climates (generally at higher latitudes) have larger mean body sizes than conspecifics in warmer climates (at lower latitudes). These two rules are rarely tested together and neither has been rigorously tested in treeshrews, a clade of small‐bodied mammals in their own order (Scandentia) broadly distributed in mainland Southeast Asia and on islands throughout much of the Sunda Shelf. The common treeshrew, Tupaia glis, is an excellent candidate for study and was used to test these two rules simultaneously for the first time in treeshrews. This species is distributed on the Malay Peninsula and several offshore islands east, west, and south of the mainland. Using craniodental dimensions as a proxy for body size, we investigated how island size, distance from the mainland, and maximum sea depth between the mainland and the islands relate to body size of 13 insular T. glis populations while also controlling for latitude and correlation among variables. We found a strong negative effect of latitude on body size in the common treeshrew, indicating the inverse of Bergmann's rule. We did not detect any overall difference in body size between the island and mainland populations. However, there was an effect of island area and maximum sea depth on body size among island populations. Although there is a strong latitudinal effect on body size, neither Bergmann's rule nor the island rule applies to the common treeshrew. The results of our analyses demonstrate the necessity of assessing multiple variables simultaneously in studies of ecogeographical rules.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Jewett, Ethan M.; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright–Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. PMID:27550904

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Size and age structure of anadromous and landlocked populations of Rainbow Smelt

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Malley, Andrew; Enterline, Claire; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax are widely distributed in both anadromous and landlocked populations throughout northeastern North America; abundance, size at age, and maximum size vary widely among populations and life histories. In the present study, size at age, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, population age distributions, and precision and bias in age assessment based on scales and sectioned otoliths were compared between ecotypes and among populations of Rainbow Smelt. To compare the ecotypes, we collected spawning adults from four anadromous and three landlocked populations in Maine during spring 2014. A significant bias was identified in only one of four scale comparisons but in four of seven otolith comparisons; however, a comparable level of precision was indicated. Anadromous populations had larger and more variable size at age and von Bertalanffy growth parameters than landlocked fish. Populations were composed of ages 1–4; six populations were dominated by age-2 or age-3 individuals, and one population was dominated by age-1 fish. These data suggest the presence of considerable plasticity among populations. A latitudinal gradient was observed in the anadromous Rainbow Smelt, which may show signs of population stress at the southern extent of their distribution.

Bistability, non-ergodicity, and inhibition in pairwise maximum-entropy models

PubMed Central

Grün, Sonja; Helias, Moritz

2017-01-01

Pairwise maximum-entropy models have been used in neuroscience to predict the activity of neuronal populations, given only the time-averaged correlations of the neuron activities. This paper provides evidence that the pairwise model, applied to experimental recordings, would produce a bimodal distribution for the population-averaged activity, and for some population sizes the second mode would peak at high activities, that experimentally would be equivalent to 90% of the neuron population active within time-windows of few milliseconds. Several problems are connected with this bimodality: 1. The presence of the high-activity mode is unrealistic in view of observed neuronal activity and on neurobiological grounds. 2. Boltzmann learning becomes non-ergodic, hence the pairwise maximum-entropy distribution cannot be found: in fact, Boltzmann learning would produce an incorrect distribution; similarly, common variants of mean-field approximations also produce an incorrect distribution. 3. The Glauber dynamics associated with the model is unrealistically bistable and cannot be used to generate realistic surrogate data. This bimodality problem is first demonstrated for an experimental dataset from 159 neurons in the motor cortex of macaque monkey. Evidence is then provided that this problem affects typical neural recordings of population sizes of a couple of hundreds or more neurons. The cause of the bimodality problem is identified as the inability of standard maximum-entropy distributions with a uniform reference measure to model neuronal inhibition. To eliminate this problem a modified maximum-entropy model is presented, which reflects a basic effect of inhibition in the form of a simple but non-uniform reference measure. This model does not lead to unrealistic bimodalities, can be found with Boltzmann learning, and has an associated Glauber dynamics which incorporates a minimal asymmetric inhibition. PMID:28968396

Bistability, non-ergodicity, and inhibition in pairwise maximum-entropy models.

PubMed

Rostami, Vahid; Porta Mana, PierGianLuca; Grün, Sonja; Helias, Moritz

2017-10-01

Pairwise maximum-entropy models have been used in neuroscience to predict the activity of neuronal populations, given only the time-averaged correlations of the neuron activities. This paper provides evidence that the pairwise model, applied to experimental recordings, would produce a bimodal distribution for the population-averaged activity, and for some population sizes the second mode would peak at high activities, that experimentally would be equivalent to 90% of the neuron population active within time-windows of few milliseconds. Several problems are connected with this bimodality: 1. The presence of the high-activity mode is unrealistic in view of observed neuronal activity and on neurobiological grounds. 2. Boltzmann learning becomes non-ergodic, hence the pairwise maximum-entropy distribution cannot be found: in fact, Boltzmann learning would produce an incorrect distribution; similarly, common variants of mean-field approximations also produce an incorrect distribution. 3. The Glauber dynamics associated with the model is unrealistically bistable and cannot be used to generate realistic surrogate data. This bimodality problem is first demonstrated for an experimental dataset from 159 neurons in the motor cortex of macaque monkey. Evidence is then provided that this problem affects typical neural recordings of population sizes of a couple of hundreds or more neurons. The cause of the bimodality problem is identified as the inability of standard maximum-entropy distributions with a uniform reference measure to model neuronal inhibition. To eliminate this problem a modified maximum-entropy model is presented, which reflects a basic effect of inhibition in the form of a simple but non-uniform reference measure. This model does not lead to unrealistic bimodalities, can be found with Boltzmann learning, and has an associated Glauber dynamics which incorporates a minimal asymmetric inhibition.

Approximate sample sizes required to estimate length distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miranda, L.E.

2007-01-01

The sample sizes required to estimate fish length were determined by bootstrapping from reference length distributions. Depending on population characteristics and species-specific maximum lengths, 1-cm length-frequency histograms required 375-1,200 fish to estimate within 10% with 80% confidence, 2.5-cm histograms required 150-425 fish, proportional stock density required 75-140 fish, and mean length required 75-160 fish. In general, smaller species, smaller populations, populations with higher mortality, and simpler length statistics required fewer samples. Indices that require low sample sizes may be suitable for monitoring population status, and when large changes in length are evident, additional sampling effort may be allocated to more precisely define length status with more informative estimators. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

Implications of nonadventitious rhizome spread on reproduction, inbreeding, and conservation for a rare grassland legume.

PubMed

Severns, Paul M; Liston, Aaron; Wilson, Mark V

2011-01-01

Small population size, genetic diversity, and spatial patterns of vegetative spread are important aspects to consider when managing populations of rare clonal plant species. We used 5 variable nuclear simple sequence repeat nDNA loci to determine the extent of genet rhizome spread, examine the possibility of very small population sizes, and project how Bombus spp. (bumblebee) foraging may impact selfing (through geitonogamy) for a threatened lupine (Lupinus oreganus Heller) that sprawls through nonadventitious rhizomes. Genotyping identified 1 genet (27 × 13 m) that dominated about 30% of a study site, whereas 15 genets spread a maximum average distance of about 5.5 m (range 1.6 -27.1 m) and appeared to be well integrated with intervening genets. We found unexpectedly high genotype diversity, no evidence of a recent genetic bottleneck, and 5 of 6 patches had mean fixation index values that were near Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium expectations. If the median maximum Bombus foraging distance observed in lupine patches (1.2 m) occurred within genotyped populations, a typical foraging flight would have >80% chance of occurring between different genets. Our study demonstrates that inferences associated with clonality, small population size, and inbreeding depression should be directly evaluated for rare vegetatively spreading plants.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data.

PubMed

Jewett, Ethan M; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S

2016-11-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright-Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

The demographic consequences of growing older and bigger in oyster populations.

PubMed

Moore, Jacob L; Lipcius, Romuald N; Puckett, Brandon; Schreiber, Sebastian J

2016-10-01

Structured population models, particularly size- or age-structured, have a long history of informing conservation and natural resource management. While size is often easier to measure than age and is the focus of many management strategies, age-structure can have important effects on population dynamics that are not captured in size-only models. However, relatively few studies have included the simultaneous effects of both age- and size-structure. To better understand how population structure, particularly that of age and size, impacts restoration and management decisions, we developed and compared a size-structured integral projection model (IPM) and an age- and size-structured IPM, using a population of Crassostrea gigas oysters in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We analyzed sensitivity of model results across values of local retention that give populations decreasing in size to populations increasing in size. We found that age- and size-structured models yielded the best fit to the demographic data and provided more reliable results about long-term demography. Elasticity analysis showed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in the survival of both large (>175 mm shell length) and small (<75 mm shell length) oysters, indicating that a maximum size limit, in addition to a minimum size limit, could be an effective strategy for maintaining a sustainable population. In contrast, the purely size-structured model did not detect the importance of large individuals. Finally, patterns in stable age and stable size distributions differed between populations decreasing in size due to limited local retention and populations increasing in size due to high local retention. These patterns can be used to determine population status and restoration success. The methodology described here provides general insight into the necessity of including both age- and size-structure into modeling frameworks when using population models to inform restoration and management decisions. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Allowable levels of take for the trade in Nearctic songbirds.

PubMed

Johnson, Fred A; Walters, Matthew A H; Boomer, G Scott

2012-06-01

The take of Nearctic songbirds for the caged-bird trade is an important cultural and economic activity in Mexico, but its sustainability has been questioned. We relied on the theta-logistic population model to explore options for setting allowable levels of take for 11 species of passerines that were subject to legal take in Mexico in 2010. Because estimates of population size necessary for making-periodic adjustments to levels of take are not routinely available, we examined the conditions under which a constant level of take might contribute to population depletion (i.e., a population below its level of maximum net productivity). The chance of depleting a population is highest when levels of take are based on population sizes that happen to be much lower or higher than the level of maximum net productivity, when environmental variation is relatively high and serially correlated, and when the interval between estimation of population size is relatively long (> or = 5 years). To estimate demographic rates of songbirds involved in the Mexican trade we relied on published information and allometric relationships to develop probability distributions for key rates, and then sampled from those distributions to characterize the uncertainty in potential levels of take. Estimates of the intrinsic rate of growth (r) were highly variable, but median estimates were consistent with those expected for relatively short-lived, highly fecund species. Allowing for the possibility of nonlinear density dependence generally resulted in allowable levels of take that were lower than would have been the case under an assumption of linearity. Levels of take authorized by the Mexican government in 2010 for the 11 species we examined were small in comparison to relatively conservative allowable levels of take (i.e., those intended to achieve 50% of maximum sustainable yield). However, the actual levels of take in Mexico are unknown and almost certainly exceed the authorized take. Also, the take of Nearctic songbirds in other Latin American and Caribbean countries ultimately must be considered in assessing population-level impacts.

Allowable levels of take for the trade in Nearctic songbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Walters, Matthew A.H.; Boomer, G. Scott

2012-01-01

The take of Nearctic songbirds for the caged-bird trade is an important cultural and economic activity in Mexico, but its sustainability has been questioned. We relied on the theta-logistic population model to explore options for setting allowable levels of take for 11 species of passerines that were subject to legal take in Mexico in 2010. Because estimates of population size necessary for making periodic adjustments to levels of take are not routinely available, we examined the conditions under which a constant level of take might contribute to population depletion (i.e., a population below its level of maximum net productivity). The chance of depleting a population is highest when levels of take are based on population sizes that happen to be much lower or higher than the level of maximum net productivity, when environmental variation is relatively high and serially correlated, and when the interval between estimation of population size is relatively long (≥5 years). To estimate demographic rates of songbirds involved in the Mexican trade we relied on published information and allometric relationships to develop probability distributions for key rates, and then sampled from those distributions to characterize the uncertainty in potential levels of take. Estimates of the intrinsic rate of growth (r) were highly variable, but median estimates were consistent with those expected for relatively short-lived, highly fecund species. Allowing for the possibility of nonlinear density dependence generally resulted in allowable levels of take that were lower than would have been the case under an assumption of linearity. Levels of take authorized by the Mexican government in 2010 for the 11 species we examined were small in comparison to relatively conservative allowable levels of take (i.e., those intended to achieve 50% of maximum sustainable yield). However, the actual levels of take in Mexico are unknown and almost certainly exceed the authorized take. Also, the take of Nearctic songbirds in other Latin American and Caribbean countries ultimately must be considered in assessing population-level impacts.

Moment and maximum likelihood estimators for Weibull distributions under length- and area-biased sampling

Treesearch

Jeffrey H. Gove

2003-01-01

Many of the most popular sampling schemes used in forestry are probability proportional to size methods. These methods are also referred to as size biased because sampling is actually from a weighted form of the underlying population distribution. Length- and area-biased sampling are special cases of size-biased sampling where the probability weighting comes from a...

Population limitation in a non-cyclic arctic fox population in a changing climate.

PubMed

Pálsson, Snæbjörn; Hersteinsson, Páll; Unnsteinsdóttir, Ester R; Nielsen, Ólafur K

2016-04-01

Arctic foxes Vulpes lagopus (L.) display a sharp 3- to 5-year fluctuation in population size where lemmings are their main prey. In areas devoid of lemmings, such as Iceland, they do not experience short-term fluctuations. This study focusses on the population dynamics of the arctic fox in Iceland and how it is shaped by its main prey populations. Hunting statistics from 1958-2003 show that the population size of the arctic fox was at a maximum in the 1950s, declined to a minimum in the 1970s, and increased steadily until 2003. Analysis of the arctic fox population size and their prey populations suggests that fox numbers were limited by rock ptarmigan numbers during the decline period. The recovery of the arctic fox population was traced mostly to an increase in goose populations, and favourable climatic conditions as reflected by the Subpolar Gyre. These results underscore the flexibility of a generalist predator and its responses to shifting food resources and climate changes.

Approximate Sample Size Formulas for Testing Group Mean Differences when Variances Are Unequal in One-Way ANOVA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guo, Jiin-Huarng; Luh, Wei-Ming

2008-01-01

This study proposes an approach for determining appropriate sample size for Welch's F test when unequal variances are expected. Given a certain maximum deviation in population means and using the quantile of F and t distributions, there is no need to specify a noncentrality parameter and it is easy to estimate the approximate sample size needed…

Demographic Divergence History of Pied Flycatcher and Collared Flycatcher Inferred from Whole-Genome Re-sequencing Data

PubMed Central

Nadachowska-Brzyska, Krystyna; Burri, Reto; Olason, Pall I.; Kawakami, Takeshi; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

2013-01-01

Profound knowledge of demographic history is a prerequisite for the understanding and inference of processes involved in the evolution of population differentiation and speciation. Together with new coalescent-based methods, the recent availability of genome-wide data enables investigation of differentiation and divergence processes at unprecedented depth. We combined two powerful approaches, full Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis (ABC) and pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent modeling (PSMC), to reconstruct the demographic history of the split between two avian speciation model species, the pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher. Using whole-genome re-sequencing data from 20 individuals, we investigated 15 demographic models including different levels and patterns of gene flow, and changes in effective population size over time. ABC provided high support for recent (mode 0.3 my, range <0.7 my) species divergence, declines in effective population size of both species since their initial divergence, and unidirectional recent gene flow from pied flycatcher into collared flycatcher. The estimated divergence time and population size changes, supported by PSMC results, suggest that the ancestral species persisted through one of the glacial periods of middle Pleistocene and then split into two large populations that first increased in size before going through severe bottlenecks and expanding into their current ranges. Secondary contact appears to have been established after the last glacial maximum. The severity of the bottlenecks at the last glacial maximum is indicated by the discrepancy between current effective population sizes (20,000–80,000) and census sizes (5–50 million birds) of the two species. The recent divergence time challenges the supposition that avian speciation is a relatively slow process with extended times for intrinsic postzygotic reproductive barriers to evolve. Our study emphasizes the importance of using genome-wide data to unravel tangled demographic histories. Moreover, it constitutes one of the first examples of the inference of divergence history from genome-wide data in non-model species. PMID:24244198

Demographic divergence history of pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher inferred from whole-genome re-sequencing data.

PubMed

Nadachowska-Brzyska, Krystyna; Burri, Reto; Olason, Pall I; Kawakami, Takeshi; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

2013-11-01

Profound knowledge of demographic history is a prerequisite for the understanding and inference of processes involved in the evolution of population differentiation and speciation. Together with new coalescent-based methods, the recent availability of genome-wide data enables investigation of differentiation and divergence processes at unprecedented depth. We combined two powerful approaches, full Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis (ABC) and pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent modeling (PSMC), to reconstruct the demographic history of the split between two avian speciation model species, the pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher. Using whole-genome re-sequencing data from 20 individuals, we investigated 15 demographic models including different levels and patterns of gene flow, and changes in effective population size over time. ABC provided high support for recent (mode 0.3 my, range <0.7 my) species divergence, declines in effective population size of both species since their initial divergence, and unidirectional recent gene flow from pied flycatcher into collared flycatcher. The estimated divergence time and population size changes, supported by PSMC results, suggest that the ancestral species persisted through one of the glacial periods of middle Pleistocene and then split into two large populations that first increased in size before going through severe bottlenecks and expanding into their current ranges. Secondary contact appears to have been established after the last glacial maximum. The severity of the bottlenecks at the last glacial maximum is indicated by the discrepancy between current effective population sizes (20,000-80,000) and census sizes (5-50 million birds) of the two species. The recent divergence time challenges the supposition that avian speciation is a relatively slow process with extended times for intrinsic postzygotic reproductive barriers to evolve. Our study emphasizes the importance of using genome-wide data to unravel tangled demographic histories. Moreover, it constitutes one of the first examples of the inference of divergence history from genome-wide data in non-model species.

Maturity, size at age and predator-prey relationships of winter skate Leucoraja ocellata in the southern Gulf of St Lawrence: potentially an undescribed endemic facing extirpation.

PubMed

Kelly, J T; Hanson, J M

2013-03-01

The goals of this study were to document the size and age structure, size at maturity, ovarian fecundity and diet of the endangered population of winter skate Leucoraja ocellata that resides in the southern Gulf of St Lawrence (SGSL). The maximum size observed for SGSL L. ocellata was 68 cm total length (LT ) but >99% of animals caught were <60 cm LT . Fifty per cent of male and female L. ocellata were fully mature at 40 and 42 cm LT , respectively, age c. 5 years. The oldest individual caught was age 11 years, but 98% of the 561 individuals examined were ≤age 8 years, indicating a short reproductive life span. Ovarian fecundity was low; no more than 29 ova >10 mm diameter were ever observed. At 40 cm LT , the diet changed from one dominated by shrimp Crangon septemspinosa and gammarid amphipods to one dominated by fishes (mainly sand lance Ammodytes spp. and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax) and Atlantic rock crab Cancer irroratus. Sufficient differences were observed between SGSL L. ocellata and other populations in their size-at-maturity pattern and maximum size to propose the taxonomic re-evaluation of the population. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2013. Journal of Fish Biology © 2013 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Body growth and life history in wild mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) from Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda.

PubMed

Galbany, Jordi; Abavandimwe, Didier; Vakiener, Meagan; Eckardt, Winnie; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Ndagijimana, Felix; Stoinski, Tara S; McFarlin, Shannon C

2017-07-01

Great apes show considerable diversity in socioecology and life history, but knowledge of their physical growth in natural settings is scarce. We characterized linear body size growth in wild mountain gorillas from Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda, a population distinguished by its extreme folivory and accelerated life histories. In 131 individuals (0.09-35.26 years), we used non-invasive parallel laser photogrammetry to measure body length, back width, arm length and two head dimensions. Nonparametric LOESS regression was used to characterize cross-sectional distance and velocity growth curves for males and females, and consider links with key life history milestones. Sex differences became evident between 8.5 and 10.0 years of age. Thereafter, female growth velocities declined, while males showed increased growth velocities until 10.0-14.5 years across dimensions. Body dimensions varied in growth; females and males reached 98% of maximum body length at 11.7 and 13.1 years, respectively. Females attained 95.3% of maximum body length by mean age at first birth. Neonates were 31% of maternal size, and doubled in size by mean weaning age. Males reached maximum body and arm length and back width before emigration, but experienced continued growth in head dimensions. While comparable data are scarce, our findings provide preliminary support for the prediction that mountain gorillas reach maximum body size at earlier ages compared to more frugivorous western gorillas. Data from other wild populations are needed to better understand comparative great ape development, and investigate links between trajectories of physical, behavioral, and reproductive maturation. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Testing the 'island rule' for a tenebrionid beetle (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, Miquel

2002-05-01

Insular populations and their closest mainland counterparts commonly display body size differences that are considered to fit the island rule, a theoretical framework to explain both dwarfism and gigantism in isolated animal populations. The island rule is used to explain the pattern of change of body size at the inter-specific level. But the model implicitly makes also a prediction for the body size of isolated populations of a single species. It suggests that, for a hypothetical species covering a wide range of island sizes, there exists a specific island size where this species reaches the largest body size. Body size would be small (in relative terms) in the smallest islets of the species range. It would increase with island size, and reach a maximum at some specific island size. However, additional increases from such a specific island size would instead promote body size reduction, and small (in relative terms) body sizes would be found again on the largest islands. The biogeographical patterns predicted by the island rule have been described and analysed for vertebrates only (mainly mammals), but remain largely untested for insects or other invertebrates. I analyse here the pattern of body size variation between seven isolated insular populations of a flightless beetle, Asida planipennis (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae). This is an endemic species of Mallorca, Menorca and a number of islands and islets in the Balearic archipelago (western Mediterranean). The study covers seven of the 15 known populations (i.e., there are only 15 islands or islets inhabited by the species). The populations studied fit the pattern advanced above and we could, therefore, extrapolate the island rule to a very different kind of organism. However, the small sample size of some of the populations invites some caution at this early stage.

Effective Ice Particle Densities for Cold Anvil Cirrus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Schmitt, Carl G.; Bansemer, Aaron; Baumgardner, Darrel; Weinstock, Elliot M.; Smith, Jessica

2002-01-01

This study derives effective ice particle densities from data collected from the NASA WB-57F aircraft near the tops of anvils during the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers (CRYSTAL) Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (FACE) in southern Florida in July 2002. The effective density, defined as the ice particle mass divided by the volume of an equivalent diameter liquid sphere, is obtained for particle populations and single sizes containing mixed particle habits using measurements of condensed water content and particle size distributions. The mean effective densities for populations decrease with increasing slopes of the gamma size distributions fitted to the size distributions. The population-mean densities range from near 0.91 g/cu m to 0.15 g/cu m. Effective densities for single sizes obey a power-law with an exponent of about -0.55, somewhat less steep than found from earlier studies. Our interpretations apply to samples where particle sizes are generally below 200-300 microns in maximum dimension because of probe limitations.

Inference from single occasion capture experiments using genetic markers.

PubMed

Hettiarachchige, Chathurika K H; Huggins, Richard M

2018-05-01

Accurate estimation of the size of animal populations is an important task in ecological science. Recent advances in the field of molecular genetics researches allow the use of genetic data to estimate the size of a population from a single capture occasion rather than repeated occasions as in the usual capture-recapture experiments. Estimating the population size using genetic data also has sometimes led to estimates that differ markedly from each other and also from classical capture-recapture estimates. Here, we develop a closed form estimator that uses genetic information to estimate the size of a population consisting of mothers and daughters, focusing on estimating the number of mothers, using data from a single sample. We demonstrate the estimator is consistent and propose a parametric bootstrap to estimate the standard errors. The estimator is evaluated in a simulation study and applied to real data. We also consider maximum likelihood in this setting and discover problems that preclude its general use. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

How Many Seals Were There? The Global Shelf Loss during the Last Glacial Maximum and Its Effect on the Size and Distribution of Grey Seal Populations

PubMed Central

Boehme, Lars; Thompson, Dave; Fedak, Mike; Bowen, Don; Hammill, Mike O.; Stenson, Garry B.

2012-01-01

Predicting how marine mammal populations respond to habitat changes will be essential for developing conservation management strategies in the 21st century. Responses to previous environmental change may be informative in the development of predictive models. Here we describe the likely effects of the last ice age on grey seal population size and distribution. We use satellite telemetry data to define grey seal foraging habitat in terms of the temperature and depth ranges exploited by the contemporary populations. We estimate the available extent of such habitat in the North Atlantic at present (between 1.42·106 km2 and 2.07·106 km2) and at the last glacial maximum (between 4.74·104 km2 and 2.11·105 km2); taking account of glacial and seasonal sea-ice coverage, estimated reductions of sea-level (123 m) and sea surface temperature hind-casts. Most of the extensive continental shelf waters (North Sea, Baltic Sea and Scotian Shelf), currently supporting >95% of grey seals, were unavailable during the last glacial maximum. A combination of lower sea-level and extensive ice-sheets, massively increased seasonal sea-ice coverage and southerly extent of cold water would have pushed grey seals into areas with no significant shelf waters. The habitat during the last glacial maximum might have been as small as 3% of today's extent and grey seal populations may have fallen to similarly low numbers. An alternative scenario involving a major change to a pelagic or bathy-pelagic foraging niche cannot be discounted. However, hooded seals currently dominate that niche and may have excluded grey seals from such habitat. If as seems likely, the grey seal population fell to very low levels it would have remained low for several thousand years before expanding into current habitats over the past 12,000 years or so. PMID:23300843

The Effects of Soil Type, Particle Size, Temperature, and Moisture on Reproduction of Belonolaimus longicaudatus.

PubMed

Robbins, R T; Barker, K R

1974-01-01

Effects of soil type, particle size, temperature, and moisture on the reproduction of Belonolaimus longicaudatus were investigated under greenhouse conditions. Nematode increases occurred only in soils with a minimum of 80% sand and a maximum of 10% clay. Optimum soil particle size for reproduction of the Tarboro, N.C. and Tifton, Ga. populations of the nematode was near that of 120-370 mum (65-mesh) silica sand. Reproduction was greatest at 25-30 C. Some reproduction by the Tifton, Ga. population occurred at 35 C, whereas the Tarboro, N.C. population declined, as compared to the initial inoculum. Both populations reproduced slightly at 20 C. Nematode reproduction was greater at a moisture level of 7% than at a high of 30% or a low of 2%. Reproduction occurred at the high moisture level only when the nutrient solution was aerated.

Log-Normal Distribution of Cosmic Voids in Simulations and Mocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, E.; Pycke, J.-R.

2017-01-01

Following up on previous studies, we complete here a full analysis of the void size distributions of the Cosmic Void Catalog based on three different simulation and mock catalogs: dark matter (DM), haloes, and galaxies. Based on this analysis, we attempt to answer two questions: Is a three-parameter log-normal distribution a good candidate to satisfy the void size distributions obtained from different types of environments? Is there a direct relation between the shape parameters of the void size distribution and the environmental effects? In an attempt to answer these questions, we find here that all void size distributions of these data samples satisfy the three-parameter log-normal distribution whether the environment is dominated by DM, haloes, or galaxies. In addition, the shape parameters of the three-parameter log-normal void size distribution seem highly affected by environment, particularly existing substructures. Therefore, we show two quantitative relations given by linear equations between the skewness and the maximum tree depth, and between the variance of the void size distribution and the maximum tree depth, directly from the simulated data. In addition to this, we find that the percentage of voids with nonzero central density in the data sets has a critical importance. If the number of voids with nonzero central density reaches ≥3.84% in a simulation/mock sample, then a second population is observed in the void size distributions. This second population emerges as a second peak in the log-normal void size distribution at larger radius.

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

PubMed

Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

2016-01-01

Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation

PubMed Central

Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T. J.

2016-01-01

Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

Growth of Salmonella on sprouting alfalfa seeds as affected by the inoculum size, native microbial load and Pseudomonas fluorescens 2-79.

PubMed

Liao, C-H

2008-02-01

To investigate the growth of salmonellae on sprouting alfalfa seeds as affected by the inoculum size, microbial load and Pseudomonas fluorescens 2-79. Alfalfa seeds pre-inoculated with < or =10(1)-10(3) CFU g(-1) of salmonellae and with or without Ps. fluorescens 2-79 were sprouted in glass jars and the population of salmonellae were determined daily for up to 6 days. The population of salmonellae on germinating seeds reached the maximum 2-3 days after sprouting when total bacterial count reached the maximum (10(9) CFU g(-1)). The population of salmonellae on sprouting seeds not treated with Ps. fluorescens 2-79 showed a net increase of 3-4 log units. However, the population of salmonellae on alfalfa seeds treated with Ps. fluorescens 2-79 showed a net increase of only 1-2 log units. Disinfection of seeds with calcium hypochlorite enhanced the growth of salmonellae. Treatment of seeds with Ps. fluorescens 2-79 reduced the growth of salmonellae by 2-3 log units. The potential of Ps. fluorescens 2-79 as a biological agent for use in control of salmonellae on sprouting seeds was demonstrated and warrants further investigation.

AFLP markers reveal high clonal diversity and extreme longevity in four key arctic-alpine species.

PubMed

de Witte, Lucienne C; Armbruster, Georg F J; Gielly, Ludovic; Taberlet, Pierre; Stöcklin, Jürg

2012-03-01

We investigated clonal diversity, genet size structure and genet longevity in populations of four arctic-alpine plants (Carex curvula, Dryas octopetala, Salix herbacea and Vaccinium uliginosum) to evaluate their persistence under past climatic oscillations and their potential resistance to future climate change. The size and number of genets were determined by an analysis of amplified fragment length polymorphisms and a standardized sampling design in several European arctic-alpine populations, where these species are dominant in the vegetation. Genet age was estimated by dividing the size by the annual horizontal size increment from in situ growth measurements. Clonal diversity was generally high but differed among species, and the frequency distribution of genet size was strongly left-skewed. The largest C. curvula genet had an estimated minimum age of c. 4100 years and a maximum age of c. 5000 years, although 84.8% of the genets in this species were <200 years old. The oldest genets of D. octopetala, S. herbacea and V. uliginosum were found to be at least 500, 450 and 1400 years old, respectively. These results indicate that individuals in the studied populations have survived pronounced climatic oscillations, including the Little Ice Age and the postindustrial warming. The presence of genets in all size classes and the dominance of presumably young individuals suggest repeated recruitment over time, a precondition for adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Together, persistence and continuous genet turnover may ensure maximum ecosystem resilience. Thus, our results indicate that long-lived clonal plants in arctic-alpine ecosystems can persist, despite considerable climatic change. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Spatial and seasonal dynamic of abundance and distribution of guanaco and livestock: insights from using density surface and null models.

PubMed

Schroeder, Natalia M; Matteucci, Silvia D; Moreno, Pablo G; Gregorio, Pablo; Ovejero, Ramiro; Taraborelli, Paula; Carmanchahi, Pablo D

2014-01-01

Monitoring species abundance and distribution is a prerequisite when assessing species status and population viability, a difficult task to achieve for large herbivores at ecologically meaningful scales. Co-occurrence patterns can be used to infer mechanisms of community organization (such as biotic interactions), although it has been traditionally applied to binary presence/absence data. Here, we combine density surface and null models of abundance data as a novel approach to analyze the spatial and seasonal dynamics of abundance and distribution of guanacos (Lama guanicoe) and domestic herbivores in northern Patagonia, in order to visually and analytically compare the dispersion and co-occurrence pattern of ungulates. We found a marked seasonal pattern in abundance and spatial distribution of L. guanicoe. The guanaco population reached its maximum annual size and spatial dispersion in spring-summer, decreasing up to 6.5 times in size and occupying few sites of the study area in fall-winter. These results are evidence of the seasonal migration process of guanaco populations, an increasingly rare event for terrestrial mammals worldwide. The maximum number of guanacos estimated for spring (25,951) is higher than the total population size (10,000) 20 years ago, probably due to both counting methodology and population growth. Livestock were mostly distributed near human settlements, as expected by the sedentary management practiced by local people. Herbivore distribution was non-random; i.e., guanaco and livestock abundances co-varied negatively in all seasons, more than expected by chance. Segregation degree of guanaco and small-livestock (goats and sheep) was comparatively stronger than that of guanaco and large-livestock, suggesting a competition mechanism between ecologically similar herbivores, although various environmental factors could also contribute to habitat segregation. The new and compelling combination of methods used here is highly useful for researchers who conduct counts of animals to simultaneously estimate population sizes, distributions, assess temporal trends and characterize multi-species spatial interactions.

Evolution of body size in Galapagos marine iguanas.

PubMed

Wikelski, Martin

2005-10-07

Body size is one of the most important traits of organisms and allows predictions of an individual's morphology, physiology, behaviour and life history. However, explaining the evolution of complex traits such as body size is difficult because a plethora of other traits influence body size. Here I review what we know about the evolution of body size in a group of island reptiles and try to generalize about the mechanisms that shape body size. Galapagos marine iguanas occupy all 13 larger islands in this Pacific archipelago and have maximum island body weights between 900 and 12 000g. The distribution of body sizes does not match mitochondrial clades, indicating that body size evolves independently of genetic relatedness. Marine iguanas lack intra- and inter-specific food competition and predators are not size-specific, discounting these factors as selective agents influencing body size. Instead I hypothesize that body size reflects the trade-offs between sexual and natural selection. We found that sexual selection continuously favours larger body sizes. Large males establish display territories and some gain over-proportional reproductive success in the iguanas' mating aggregations. Females select males based on size and activity and are thus responsible for the observed mating skew. However, large individuals are strongly selected against during El Niño-related famines when dietary algae disappear from the intertidal foraging areas. We showed that differences in algae sward ('pasture') heights and thermal constraints on large size are causally responsible for differences in maximum body size among populations. I hypothesize that body size in many animal species reflects a trade-off between foraging constraints and sexual selection and suggest that future research could focus on physiological and genetic mechanisms determining body size in wild animals. Furthermore, evolutionary stable body size distributions within populations should be analysed to better understand selection pressures on individual body size.

Evolution of body size in Galapagos marine iguanas

PubMed Central

Wikelski, Martin

2005-01-01

Body size is one of the most important traits of organisms and allows predictions of an individual's morphology, physiology, behaviour and life history. However, explaining the evolution of complex traits such as body size is difficult because a plethora of other traits influence body size. Here I review what we know about the evolution of body size in a group of island reptiles and try to generalize about the mechanisms that shape body size. Galapagos marine iguanas occupy all 13 larger islands in this Pacific archipelago and have maximum island body weights between 900 and 12 000 g. The distribution of body sizes does not match mitochondrial clades, indicating that body size evolves independently of genetic relatedness. Marine iguanas lack intra- and inter-specific food competition and predators are not size-specific, discounting these factors as selective agents influencing body size. Instead I hypothesize that body size reflects the trade-offs between sexual and natural selection. We found that sexual selection continuously favours larger body sizes. Large males establish display territories and some gain over-proportional reproductive success in the iguanas' mating aggregations. Females select males based on size and activity and are thus responsible for the observed mating skew. However, large individuals are strongly selected against during El Niño-related famines when dietary algae disappear from the intertidal foraging areas. We showed that differences in algae sward (‘pasture’) heights and thermal constraints on large size are causally responsible for differences in maximum body size among populations. I hypothesize that body size in many animal species reflects a trade-off between foraging constraints and sexual selection and suggest that future research could focus on physiological and genetic mechanisms determining body size in wild animals. Furthermore, evolutionary stable body size distributions within populations should be analysed to better understand selection pressures on individual body size. PMID:16191607

Age and growth of the mutton hamlet Alphestes afer, with a review of the size and age of sex change among epinephelids.

PubMed

Marques, S; Ferreira, B P

2016-07-01

This paper presents results on the age, growth and population structure of a small grouper, the mutton hamlet Alphestes afer, and discusses the observed size and age structure patterns in relation to reproductive strategies among the epinephelids. Ages were determined by examination of sectioned otoliths, which showed a distinct pattern of alternating translucent and opaque zones that formed annually, as validated with tetracycline labelling. The von Bertalanffy growth function was adjusted to the length-at-age data of the males and females, but no significant differences were observed between the resulting parameters. The females, however, were older at given sizes and attained larger sizes and ages, with a maximum observed longevity of 13 years and a total length (LT ) of 26 cm, while the males attained maximum longevities of only 10 years and a 22 cm maximum LT . The LT and age range for the sex change was 16-25 cm and 3-11 years. The total mortality rate (Z) was estimated to be 0·55 for females and 0·82 for males. With the males younger and smaller than the females, this species differed from the pattern commonly observed for protogynous epinephelids. Males had slower growth after maturation, probably due to energy allocation to sperm production during sexual development. This study shows that demography is an important tool to understand the pathways for reproductive strategies in grouper populations. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF COSMIC VOIDS IN SIMULATIONS AND MOCKS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Russell, E.; Pycke, J.-R., E-mail: er111@nyu.edu, E-mail: jrp15@nyu.edu

2017-01-20

Following up on previous studies, we complete here a full analysis of the void size distributions of the Cosmic Void Catalog based on three different simulation and mock catalogs: dark matter (DM), haloes, and galaxies. Based on this analysis, we attempt to answer two questions: Is a three-parameter log-normal distribution a good candidate to satisfy the void size distributions obtained from different types of environments? Is there a direct relation between the shape parameters of the void size distribution and the environmental effects? In an attempt to answer these questions, we find here that all void size distributions of thesemore » data samples satisfy the three-parameter log-normal distribution whether the environment is dominated by DM, haloes, or galaxies. In addition, the shape parameters of the three-parameter log-normal void size distribution seem highly affected by environment, particularly existing substructures. Therefore, we show two quantitative relations given by linear equations between the skewness and the maximum tree depth, and between the variance of the void size distribution and the maximum tree depth, directly from the simulated data. In addition to this, we find that the percentage of voids with nonzero central density in the data sets has a critical importance. If the number of voids with nonzero central density reaches ≥3.84% in a simulation/mock sample, then a second population is observed in the void size distributions. This second population emerges as a second peak in the log-normal void size distribution at larger radius.« less

Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates.

PubMed

Ruiz-Navarro, Ana; Gillingham, Phillipa K; Britton, J Robert

2016-09-01

Predictions of species responses to climate change often focus on distribution shifts, although responses can also include shifts in body sizes and population demographics. Here, shifts in the distributional ranges ('climate space'), body sizes (as maximum theoretical body sizes, L∞) and growth rates (as rate at which L∞ is reached, K) were predicted for five fishes of the Cyprinidae family in a temperate region over eight climate change projections. Great Britain was the model area, and the model species were Rutilus rutilus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Squalius cephalus, Gobio gobio and Abramis brama. Ensemble models predicted that the species' climate spaces would shift in all modelled projections, with the most drastic changes occurring under high emissions; all range centroids shifted in a north-westerly direction. Predicted climate space expanded for R. rutilus and A. brama, contracted for S. cephalus, and for L. leuciscus and G. gobio, expanded under low-emission scenarios but contracted under high emissions, suggesting the presence of some climate-distribution thresholds. For R. rutilus, A. brama, S. cephalus and G. gobio, shifts in their climate space were coupled with predicted shifts to significantly smaller maximum body sizes and/or faster growth rates, aligning strongly to aspects of temperature-body size theory. These predicted shifts in L∞ and K had considerable consequences for size-at-age per species, suggesting substantial alterations in population age structures and abundances. Thus, when predicting climate change outcomes for species, outputs that couple shifts in climate space with altered body sizes and growth rates provide considerable insights into the population and community consequences, especially for species that cannot easily track their thermal niches. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of dispersal at range edges on the structure of species ranges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; O'Connor, R.J.; Krohn, W.B.

2006-01-01

Range edges are of particular interest to ecology because they hold key insights into the limits of the realized niche and associated population dynamics. A recent feature of Oikos summarized the state of the art on range edge ecology. While the typical question is what causes range edges, another important question is how range edges influence the distribution of abundances across a species geographic range when dispersal is present. We used a single species population dynamics model on a coupled-lattice to determine the effects of dispersal on peripheral populations as compared to populations at the core of the range. In the absence of resource gradients, the reduced neighborhood and thus lower connectivity or higher isolation among populations at the range edge alone led to significantly lower population sizes in the periphery of the range than in the core. Lower population sizes mean higher extinction risks and lower adaptability at the range edge, which could inhibit or slow range expansions, and thus effectively stabilize range edges. The strength of this effect depended on the potential population growth rate and the maximum dispersal distance. Lower potential population growth rates led to a stronger effect of dispersal resulting in a higher difference in population sizes between the two areas. The differential effect of dispersal on population sizes at the core and periphery of the range in the absence of resource gradients implies that traditional, habitat-based distribution models could result in misleading conclusions about the habitat quality in the periphery. Lower population sizes at the periphery are also relevant to conservation, because habitat removal not only eliminates populations but also creates new edges. Populations bordering these new edges may experience declines, due to their increased isolation. ?? OIKOS.

Life-History Traits and Population Structure of Pederson Cleaner Shrimps Ancylomenes pedersoni.

PubMed

Gilpin, Jessica A; Chadwick, Nanette E

2017-12-01

Cleaner organisms perform key functional roles in reducing rates of parasitism in marine communities. Pederson cleaner shrimps Ancylomenes pedersoni are major cleaners of reef fishes in the tropical western Atlantic and form obligate symbioses with host sea anemones. Information about their life-history traits would contribute to understanding how symbiosis impacts life-history evolution in crustaceans, but little is known about patterns of growth and reproduction in this anemone shrimp. We quantified growth, sexual reproduction, senescence, and mortality in individuals of A. pedersoni under laboratory conditions and their abundance and population size structure on coral reefs in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands. Von Bertalanffy growth curves were fitted to the data to determine age-size relationships, and the Beverton-Holt model was used to estimate mortality rates and size at maximum yield. Individuals grew rapidly when young, then slowed their growth after reaching sexual maturity at ~6 months. Individuals were gonochoric, with males attaining significantly smaller body sizes and shorter life spans than did females. Prior to death at <2 years, members of both genders exhibited senescence during which they ceased reproducing, shrank (females only), and decreased their activity levels over ~1-4 weeks. Field populations were abundant and composed mostly of juveniles during both years examined. Populations appeared to be stable but highly dynamic in terms of individuals, reaching maximum yield at 4 months of age. We conclude that obligate symbiosis with large sea anemones and cleaner mutualism with reef fishes both contribute to explaining aspects of the life history of Pederson shrimps, especially their apparent mating system of pure-search polygynandry. This life-history information also provides a scientific basis for sustainable fishery management and aquaculture of this key coral reef organism.

Phenotypic and Transcriptional Analysis of Divergently Selected Maize Populations Reveals the Role of Developmental Timing in Seed Size Determination1[W][OPEN

PubMed Central

Sekhon, Rajandeep S.; Hirsch, Candice N.; Childs, Kevin L.; Breitzman, Matthew W.; Kell, Paul; Duvick, Susan; Spalding, Edgar P.; Buell, C. Robin; de Leon, Natalia; Kaeppler, Shawn M.

2014-01-01

Seed size is a component of grain yield and an important trait in crop domestication. To understand the mechanisms governing seed size in maize (Zea mays), we examined transcriptional and developmental changes during seed development in populations divergently selected for large and small seed size from Krug, a yellow dent maize cultivar. After 30 cycles of selection, seeds of the large seed population (KLS30) have a 4.7-fold greater weight and a 2.6-fold larger size compared with the small seed population (KSS30). Patterns of seed weight accumulation from the time of pollination through 30 d of grain filling showed an earlier onset, slower rate, and earlier termination of grain filling in KSS30 relative to KLS30. This was further supported by transcriptome patterns in seeds from the populations and derived inbreds. Although the onset of key genes was earlier in small seeds, similar maximum transcription levels were observed in large seeds at later stages, suggesting that functionally weaker alleles, rather than transcript abundance, may be the basis of the slow rate of seed filling in KSS30. Gene coexpression networks identified several known genes controlling cellularization and proliferation as well as novel genes that will be useful candidates for biotechnological approaches aimed at altering seed size in maize and other cereals. PMID:24710068

Artificial wetlands as tools for frog conservation: stability and variability of reproduction characteristics in Sahara frog populations in Tunisian man-made lakes.

PubMed

Bellakhal, Meher; Neveu, André; Fertouna-Bellakhal, Mouna; Aleya, Lotfi

2017-12-01

Amphibian populations are in decline principally due to climate change, environmental contaminants, and the reduction in wetlands. Even though data concerning current population trends are scarce, artificial wetlands appear to play a vital role in amphibian conservation. This study concerns the reproductive biology of the Sahara frog over a 2-year period in four Tunisian man-made lakes. Each month, gonad state (parameters: K, GSI, LCI), fecundity, and fertility of females (using 1227 clutches) were evaluated in the field under controlled conditions. Clutches were present for 110-130 days at two of the sites, but only for 60-80 days at the other two. Maximum egg laying occurred in May, corresponding to the highest point in the gonad somatic index. Clutch densities were higher in the smaller lakes. Female fecundity was in relation to body size; mean clutch fecundity attained 1416 eggs, with no differences observed according to site. Egg fertility varied over a 1-year period, with a maximum in May followed by a decrease when water temperature was at its highest. Eggs were smaller at the beginning of spawning; maximum size was in May, which might explain the higher fertility, but no maternal influence was detected. Embryonic development was strictly dependent on temperature. The population at each site appeared as a small patch within a metapopulation in overall good health, as shown by the relative temporal stability in reproduction variables. Constructed wetlands may therefore play an important role in the conservation of amphibians, especially in semi-arid zones.

Caution regarding the choice of standard deviations to guide sample size calculations in clinical trials.

PubMed

Chen, Henian; Zhang, Nanhua; Lu, Xiaosun; Chen, Sophie

2013-08-01

The method used to determine choice of standard deviation (SD) is inadequately reported in clinical trials. Underestimations of the population SD may result in underpowered clinical trials. This study demonstrates how using the wrong method to determine population SD can lead to inaccurate sample sizes and underpowered studies, and offers recommendations to maximize the likelihood of achieving adequate statistical power. We review the practice of reporting sample size and its effect on the power of trials published in major journals. Simulated clinical trials were used to compare the effects of different methods of determining SD on power and sample size calculations. Prior to 1996, sample size calculations were reported in just 1%-42% of clinical trials. This proportion increased from 38% to 54% after the initial Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) was published in 1996, and from 64% to 95% after the revised CONSORT was published in 2001. Nevertheless, underpowered clinical trials are still common. Our simulated data showed that all minimal and 25th-percentile SDs fell below 44 (the population SD), regardless of sample size (from 5 to 50). For sample sizes 5 and 50, the minimum sample SDs underestimated the population SD by 90.7% and 29.3%, respectively. If only one sample was available, there was less than 50% chance that the actual power equaled or exceeded the planned power of 80% for detecting a median effect size (Cohen's d = 0.5) when using the sample SD to calculate the sample size. The proportions of studies with actual power of at least 80% were about 95%, 90%, 85%, and 80% when we used the larger SD, 80% upper confidence limit (UCL) of SD, 70% UCL of SD, and 60% UCL of SD to calculate the sample size, respectively. When more than one sample was available, the weighted average SD resulted in about 50% of trials being underpowered; the proportion of trials with power of 80% increased from 90% to 100% when the 75th percentile and the maximum SD from 10 samples were used. Greater sample size is needed to achieve a higher proportion of studies having actual power of 80%. This study only addressed sample size calculation for continuous outcome variables. We recommend using the 60% UCL of SD, maximum SD, 80th-percentile SD, and 75th-percentile SD to calculate sample size when 1 or 2 samples, 3 samples, 4-5 samples, and more than 5 samples of data are available, respectively. Using the sample SD or average SD to calculate sample size should be avoided.

(I Can't Get No) Saturation: A simulation and guidelines for sample sizes in qualitative research.

PubMed

van Rijnsoever, Frank J

2017-01-01

I explore the sample size in qualitative research that is required to reach theoretical saturation. I conceptualize a population as consisting of sub-populations that contain different types of information sources that hold a number of codes. Theoretical saturation is reached after all the codes in the population have been observed once in the sample. I delineate three different scenarios to sample information sources: "random chance," which is based on probability sampling, "minimal information," which yields at least one new code per sampling step, and "maximum information," which yields the largest number of new codes per sampling step. Next, I use simulations to assess the minimum sample size for each scenario for systematically varying hypothetical populations. I show that theoretical saturation is more dependent on the mean probability of observing codes than on the number of codes in a population. Moreover, the minimal and maximal information scenarios are significantly more efficient than random chance, but yield fewer repetitions per code to validate the findings. I formulate guidelines for purposive sampling and recommend that researchers follow a minimum information scenario.

Fishing and bottom water temperature as drivers of change in maximum shell length in Atlantic surfclams (Spisula solidissima)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munroe, D. M.; Narváez, D. A.; Hennen, D.; Jacobson, L.; Mann, R.; Hofmann, E. E.; Powell, E. N.; Klinck, J. M.

2016-03-01

Maximum shell length of Atlantic surfclams (Spisula solidissima) on the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) continental shelf, obtained from federal fishery survey data from 1982-present, has decreased by 15-20 mm. Two potential causes of this decreasing trend, fishery removal of large animals and stress due to warming bottom temperatures, were investigated using an individual-based model for post-settlement surfclams and a fifty-year hindcast of bottom water temperatures on the MAB. Simulations showed that fishing and/or warming bottom water temperature can cause decreases in maximum surfclam shell length (body size) equivalent to those observed in the fished stock. Independently, either localized fishing rates of 20% or sustained bottom temperatures that are 2 °C warmer than average conditions generate the observed decrease in maximum shell length. However, these independent conditions represent extremes and are not sustained in the MAB. The combined effects of fishing and warmer temperatures can generate simulated length decreases that are similar to observed decreases. Interannual variability in bottom water temperatures can also generate fluctuations in simulated shell length of up to 20 mm over a period of 10-15 years. If the change in maximum size is not genotypic, simulations also suggest that shell size composition of surfclam populations can recover if conditions change; however, that recovery could take a decade to become evident.

A general methodology for population analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazov, Petar; Lazov, Igor

2014-12-01

For a given population with N - current and M - maximum number of entities, modeled by a Birth-Death Process (BDP) with size M+1, we introduce utilization parameter ρ, ratio of the primary birth and death rates in that BDP, which, physically, determines (equilibrium) macrostates of the population, and information parameter ν, which has an interpretation as population information stiffness. The BDP, modeling the population, is in the state n, n=0,1,…,M, if N=n. In presence of these two key metrics, applying continuity law, equilibrium balance equations concerning the probability distribution pn, n=0,1,…,M, of the quantity N, pn=Prob{N=n}, in equilibrium, and conservation law, and relying on the fundamental concepts population information and population entropy, we develop a general methodology for population analysis; thereto, by definition, population entropy is uncertainty, related to the population. In this approach, what is its essential contribution, the population information consists of three basic parts: elastic (Hooke's) or absorption/emission part, synchronization or inelastic part and null part; the first two parts, which determine uniquely the null part (the null part connects them), are the two basic components of the Information Spectrum of the population. Population entropy, as mean value of population information, follows this division of the information. A given population can function in information elastic, antielastic and inelastic regime. In an information linear population, the synchronization part of the information and entropy is absent. The population size, M+1, is the third key metric in this methodology. Namely, right supposing a population with infinite size, the most of the key quantities and results for populations with finite size, emerged in this methodology, vanish.

Fame emerges as a result of small memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bingol, Haluk

2008-03-01

A dynamic memory model is proposed in which an agent “learns” a new agent by means of recommendation. The agents can also “remember” and “forget.” The memory size is decreased while the population size is kept constant. “Fame” emerged as a few agents become very well known in expense of the majority being completely forgotten. The minimum and the maximum of fame change linearly with the relative memory size. The network properties of the who-knows-who graph, which represents the state of the system, are investigated.

High migration rates shape the postglacial history of amphi-Atlantic bryophytes.

PubMed

Désamoré, Aurélie; Patiño, Jairo; Mardulyn, Patrick; Mcdaniel, Stuart F; Zanatta, Florian; Laenen, Benjamin; Vanderpoorten, Alain

2016-11-01

Paleontological evidence and current patterns of angiosperm species richness suggest that European biota experienced more severe bottlenecks than North American ones during the last glacial maximum. How well this pattern fits other plant species is less clear. Bryophytes offer a unique opportunity to contrast the impact of the last glacial maximum in North America and Europe because about 60% of the European bryoflora is shared with North America. Here, we use population genetic analyses based on approximate Bayesian computation on eight amphi-Atlantic species to test the hypothesis that North American populations were less impacted by the last glacial maximum, exhibiting higher levels of genetic diversity than European ones and ultimately serving as a refugium for the postglacial recolonization of Europe. In contrast with this hypothesis, the best-fit demographic model involved similar patterns of population size contractions, comparable levels of genetic diversity and balanced migration rates between European and North American populations. Our results thus suggest that bryophytes have experienced comparable demographic glacial histories on both sides of the Atlantic. Although a weak, but significant genetic structure was systematically recovered between European and North American populations, evidence for migration from and towards both continents suggests that amphi-Atlantic bryophyte population may function as a metapopulation network. Reconstructing the biogeographic history of either North American or European bryophyte populations therefore requires a large, trans-Atlantic geographic framework. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Potential environmental influences on variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism among Arizona populations of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake (Crotalus atrox)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amarello, Melissa; Nowak, Erica M.; Taylor, Emily N.; Schuett, Gordon W.; Repp, Roger A.; Rosen, Philip C.; Hardy, David L.

2010-01-01

Differences in resource availability and quality along environmental gradients are important influences contributing to intraspecific variation in body size, which influences numerous life-history traits. Here, we examined variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in relation to temperature, seasonality, and precipitation among 10 populations located throughout Arizona of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake (Crotalus atrox). Specifically, in our analyses we addressed the following questions: (i) Are adult males larger in cooler, wetter areas? (ii) Does female body size respond differently to environmental variation? (iii) Is seasonality a better predictor of body size variation? (iv) Is SSD positively correlated with increased resources? We demonstrate that male and female C. atrox are larger in body size in cooler (i.e., lower average annual maximum, minimum, and mean temperature) and wetter areas (i.e., higher average annual precipitation, more variable precipitation, and available surface water). Although SSD in C. atrox appeared to be more pronounced in cooler, wetter areas, this relationship did not achieve statistical significance.

Population demography of an endangered lizard, the Blue Mountains Water Skink

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Information on the age structure within populations of an endangered species can facilitate effective management. The Blue Mountains Water Skink (Eulamprus leuraensis) is a viviparous scincid lizard that is restricted to < 40 isolated montane swamps in south-eastern Australia. We used skeletochronology of phalanges (corroborated by mark-recapture data) to estimate ages of 222 individuals from 13 populations. Results These lizards grow rapidly, from neonatal size (30 mm snout-vent length) to adult size (about 70 mm SVL) within two to three years. Fecundity is low (mean 2.9 offspring per litter) and is affected by maternal body length and age. Offspring quality may decline with maternal age, based upon captive-born neonates (older females gave birth to slower offspring). In contrast to its broadly sympatric (and abundant) congener E. tympanum, E. leuraensis is short-lived (maximum 6 years, vs 15 years for E. tympanum). Litter size and offspring size are similar in the two species, but female E. leuraensis reproduce annually whereas many E. tympanum produce litters biennially. Thus, a low survival rate (rather than delayed maturation or low annual fecundity) is the key reason why E. leuraensis is endangered. Our 13 populations exhibited similar growth rates and population age structures despite substantial variation in elevation, geographic location and swamp size. However, larger populations (based on a genetic estimate of effective population size) contained older lizards, and thus a wider variance in ages. Conclusion Our study suggests that low adult survival rates, as well as specialisation on a rare and fragmented habitat type (montane swamps) contribute to the endangered status of the Blue Mountains Water Skink. PMID:23402634

The evolutionary and behavioral modification of consumer responses to environmental change.

PubMed

Abrams, Peter A

2014-02-21

How will evolution or other forms of adaptive change alter the response of a consumer species' population density to environmentally driven changes in population growth parameters? This question is addressed by analyzing some simple consumer-resource models to separate the ecological and evolutionary components of the population's response. Ecological responses are always decreased population size, but evolution of traits that have effects on both resource uptake rate and another fitness-related parameter may magnify, offset, or reverse this population decrease. Evolution can change ecologically driven decreases in population size to increases; this is likely when: (1) resources are initially below the density that maximizes resource growth, and (2) the evolutionary response decreases the consumer's resource uptake rate. Evolutionary magnification of the ecological decreases in population size can occur when the environmental change is higher trait-independent mortality. Such evolution-driven decreases are most likely when uptake-rate traits increase and the resource is initially below its maximum growth density. It is common for the difference between the new eco-evolutionary equilibrium and the new ecological equilibrium to be larger than that between the original and new ecological equilibrium densities. The relative magnitudes of ecological and evolutionary effects often depend sensitively on the magnitude of the environmental change and the nature of resource growth. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Initialization Method for Grammar-Guided Genetic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Arnau, M.; Manrique, D.; Ríos, J.; Rodríguez-Patón, A.

This paper proposes a new tree-generation algorithm for grammarguided genetic programming that includes a parameter to control the maximum size of the trees to be generated. An important feature of this algorithm is that the initial populations generated are adequately distributed in terms of tree size and distribution within the search space. Consequently, genetic programming systems starting from the initial populations generated by the proposed method have a higher convergence speed. Two different problems have been chosen to carry out the experiments: a laboratory test involving searching for arithmetical equalities and the real-world task of breast cancer prognosis. In both problems, comparisons have been made to another five important initialization methods.

Size evolution in microorganisms masks trade-offs predicted by the growth rate hypothesis.

PubMed

Gounand, Isabelle; Daufresne, Tanguy; Gravel, Dominique; Bouvier, Corinne; Bouvier, Thierry; Combe, Marine; Gougat-Barbera, Claire; Poly, Franck; Torres-Barceló, Clara; Mouquet, Nicolas

2016-12-28

Adaptation to local resource availability depends on responses in growth rate and nutrient acquisition. The growth rate hypothesis (GRH) suggests that growing fast should impair competitive abilities for phosphorus and nitrogen due to high demand for biosynthesis. However, in microorganisms, size influences both growth and uptake rates, which may mask trade-offs and instead generate a positive relationship between these traits (size hypothesis, SH). Here, we evolved a gradient of maximum growth rate (μ max ) from a single bacterium ancestor to test the relationship among μ max , competitive ability for nutrients and cell size, while controlling for evolutionary history. We found a strong positive correlation between μ max and competitive ability for phosphorus, associated with a trade-off between μ max and cell size: strains selected for high μ max were smaller and better competitors for phosphorus. Our results strongly support the SH, while the trade-offs expected under GRH were not apparent. Beyond plasticity, unicellular populations can respond rapidly to selection pressure through joint evolution of their size and maximum growth rate. Our study stresses that physiological links between these traits tightly shape the evolution of competitive strategies. © 2016 The Author(s).

(I Can’t Get No) Saturation: A simulation and guidelines for sample sizes in qualitative research

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

I explore the sample size in qualitative research that is required to reach theoretical saturation. I conceptualize a population as consisting of sub-populations that contain different types of information sources that hold a number of codes. Theoretical saturation is reached after all the codes in the population have been observed once in the sample. I delineate three different scenarios to sample information sources: “random chance,” which is based on probability sampling, “minimal information,” which yields at least one new code per sampling step, and “maximum information,” which yields the largest number of new codes per sampling step. Next, I use simulations to assess the minimum sample size for each scenario for systematically varying hypothetical populations. I show that theoretical saturation is more dependent on the mean probability of observing codes than on the number of codes in a population. Moreover, the minimal and maximal information scenarios are significantly more efficient than random chance, but yield fewer repetitions per code to validate the findings. I formulate guidelines for purposive sampling and recommend that researchers follow a minimum information scenario. PMID:28746358

Simulated population responses of common carp to commercial exploitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weber, Michael J.; Hennen, Matthew J.; Brown, Michael L.

2011-12-01

Common carp Cyprinus carpio is a widespread invasive species that can become highly abundant and impose deleterious ecosystem effects. Thus, aquatic resource managers are interested in controlling common carp populations. Control of invasive common carp populations is difficult, due in part to the inherent uncertainty of how populations respond to exploitation. To understand how common carp populations respond to exploitation, we evaluated common carp population dynamics (recruitment, growth, and mortality) in three natural lakes in eastern South Dakota. Common carp exhibited similar population dynamics across these three systems that were characterized by consistent recruitment (ages 3 to 15 years present),more » fast growth (K = 0.37 to 0.59), and low mortality (A = 1 to 7%). We then modeled the effects of commercial exploitation on size structure, abundance, and egg production to determine its utility as a management tool to control populations. All three populations responded similarly to exploitation simulations with a 575-mm length restriction, representing commercial gear selectivity. Simulated common carp size structure modestly declined (9 to 37%) in all simulations. Abundance of common carp declined dramatically (28 to 56%) at low levels of exploitation (0 to 20%) but exploitation >40% had little additive effect and populations were only reduced by 49 to 79% despite high exploitation (>90%). Maximum lifetime egg production was reduced from 77 to 89% at a moderate level of exploitation (40%), indicating the potential for recruitment overfishing. Exploitation further reduced common carp size structure, abundance, and egg production when simulations were not size selective. Our results provide insights to how common carp populations may respond to exploitation. Although commercial exploitation may be able to partially control populations, an integrated removal approach that removes all sizes of common carp has a greater chance of controlling population abundance and reducing perturbations induced by this invasive species.« less

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species

PubMed Central

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-01-01

1. The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). 2. Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. 3. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960–2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. 4. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. 5. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species, but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia). PMID:23419215

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species.

PubMed

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-07-01

The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960-2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species, but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia). © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Model-Based Dose Selection for Intravaginal Ring Formulations Releasing Anastrozole and Levonorgestrel Intended for the Treatment of Endometriosis Symptoms.

PubMed

Reinecke, Isabel; Schultze-Mosgau, Marcus-Hillert; Nave, Rüdiger; Schmitz, Heinz; Ploeger, Bart A

2017-05-01

Pharmacokinetics (PK) of anastrozole (ATZ) and levonorgestrel (LNG) released from an intravaginal ring (IVR) intended to treat endometriosis symptoms were characterized, and the exposure-response relationship focusing on the development of large ovarian follicle-like structures was investigated by modeling and simulation to support dose selection for further studies. A population PK analysis and simulations were performed for ATZ and LNG based on clinical phase 1 study data from 66 healthy women. A PK/PD model was developed to predict the probability of a maximum follicle size ≥30 mm and the potential contribution of ATZ beside the known LNG effects. Population PK models for ATZ and LNG were established where the interaction of LNG with sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) as well as a stimulating effect of estradiol on SHBG were considered. Furthermore, simulations showed that doses of 40 μg/d LNG combined with 300, 600, or 1050 μg/d ATZ reached anticipated exposure levels for both drugs, facilitating selection of ATZ and LNG doses in the phase 2 dose-finding study. The main driver for the effect on maximum follicle size appears to be unbound LNG exposure. A 50% probability of maximum follicle size ≥30 mm was estimated for 40 μg/d LNG based on the exposure-response analysis. ATZ in the dose range investigated does not increase the risk for ovarian cysts as occurs with LNG at a dose that does not inhibit ovulation. © 2016, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Unusual population attributes of invasive red-eared slider turtles (Trachemys scripta elegans) in Japan: do they have a performance advantage?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taniguchi, Mari; Lovich, Jeffrey E.; Mine, Kanako; Ueno, Shintaro; Kamezaki, Naoki

2017-01-01

The slider turtle (Trachemys scripta Thunberg in Schoepff, 1792) is native to the USA and Mexico. Due to the popularity of their colorful hatchlings as pets, they have been exported worldwide and are now present on all continents, except Antarctica. Slider turtles are well-established in Japan and occupy aquatic habitats in urban and agricultural areas, to the detriment of native turtles with which they compete. We asked the overall question, do slider turtles in Japan have a performance advantage because they are liberated from the numerous competing turtle species in their native range and released from many of their natural predators? Traits compared included various measures of adult body size (mean, maximum), female size at maturity as measured by size of gravid females, clutch size, population density and biomass, sex ratio, and sexual size dimorphism, the latter two a partial reflection of growth and maturity differences between the sexes. We sampled slider turtle populations in three habitats in Japan and compared population attributes with published data for the species from throughout its native range in the USA. Mean male body sizes were at the lower end of values from the USA suggesting that males in Japan may mature at smaller body sizes. The smallest gravid females in Japan mature at smaller body sizes but have mean clutch sizes larger than some populations in the USA. Compared to most populations in the USA, slider turtles achieve higher densities and biomasses in Japanese wetlands, especially the lotic system we sampled. Sex ratios were female-biased, the opposite of what is reported for many populations in protected areas of the USA. Sexual size dimorphism was enhanced relative to native populations with females as the larger sex. The enhanced dimorphism is likely a result of earlier size of maturity in Japanese males and the large size of mature (gravid) Japanese females. Slider turtles appear to have a performance advantage over native turtles in Japan, possibly as a result of being released from competition with numerous sympatric turtle species in their native range, and the absence of many co-evolved predators and parasites in Japan. This slight competitive edge, coupled with the catholic diet and broad tolerance of varying aquatic habitats of slider turtles, is reflected in their dominance over native and naturalized Japanese turtles in altered aquatic habitats.

Contrasting effects of climate on juvenile body size in a Southern Hemisphere passerine bird.

PubMed

Kruuk, Loeske E B; Osmond, Helen L; Cockburn, Andrew

2015-08-01

Despite extensive research on the topic, it has been difficult to reach general conclusions as to the effects of climate change on morphology in wild animals: in particular, the effects of warming temperatures have been associated with increases, decreases or stasis in body size in different populations. Here, we use a fine-scale analysis of associations between weather and offspring body size in a long-term study of a wild passerine bird, the cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wren, in south-eastern Australia to show that such variation in the direction of associations occurs even within a population. Over the past 26 years, our study population has experienced increased temperatures, increased frequency of heatwaves and reduced rainfall - but the mean body mass of chicks has not changed. Despite the apparent stasis, mass was associated with weather across the previous year, but in multiple counteracting ways. Firstly, (i) chick mass was negatively associated with extremely recent heatwaves, but there also positive associations with (ii) higher maximum temperatures and (iii) higher rainfall, both occurring in a period prior to and during the nesting period, and finally (iv) a longer-term negative association with higher maximum temperatures following the previous breeding season. Our results illustrate how a morphological trait may be affected by both short- and long-term effects of the same weather variable at multiple times of the year and that these effects may act in different directions. We also show that climate within the relevant time windows may not be changing in the same way, such that overall long-term temporal trends in body size may be minimal. Such complexity means that analytical approaches that search for a single 'best' window for one particular weather variable may miss other relevant information, and is also likely to make analyses of phenotypic plasticity and prediction of longer-term population dynamics difficult. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Growth and life history variability of the grey reef shark (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos) across its range

PubMed Central

Bradley, Darcy; Conklin, Eric; Papastamatiou, Yannis P.; McCauley, Douglas J.; Pollock, Kydd; Kendall, Bruce E.; Gaines, Steven D.; Caselle, Jennifer E.

2017-01-01

For broadly distributed, often overexploited species such as elasmobranchs (sharks and rays), conservation management would benefit from understanding how life history traits change in response to local environmental and ecological factors. However, fishing obfuscates this objective by causing complex and often mixed effects on the life histories of target species. Disentangling the many drivers of life history variability requires knowledge of elasmobranch populations in the absence of fishing, which is rarely available. Here, we describe the growth, maximum size, sex ratios, size at maturity, and offer a direct estimate of survival of an unfished population of grey reef sharks (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos) using data from an eight year tag-recapture study. We then synthesized published information on the life history of C. amblyrhynchos from across its geographic range, and for the first time, we attempted to disentangle the contribution of fishing from geographic variation in an elasmobranch species. For Palmyra’s unfished C. amblyrhynchos population, the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) growth coefficient k was 0.05 and asymptotic length L∞ was 163.3 cm total length (TL). Maximum size was 175.5 cm TL from a female shark, length at maturity was estimated at 116.7–123.2 cm TL for male sharks, maximum lifespan estimated from VBGF parameters was 18.1 years for both sexes combined, and annual survival was 0.74 year-1. Consistent with findings from studies on other elasmobranch species, we found significant intraspecific variability in reported life history traits of C. amblyrhynchos. However, contrary to what others have reported, we did not find consistent patterns in life history variability as a function of biogeography or fishing. Ultimately, the substantial, but not yet predictable variability in life history traits observed for C. amblyrhynchos across its geographic range suggests that regional management may be necessary to set sustainable harvest targets and to recover this and other shark species globally. PMID:28207874

Growth and life history variability of the grey reef shark (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos) across its range.

PubMed

Bradley, Darcy; Conklin, Eric; Papastamatiou, Yannis P; McCauley, Douglas J; Pollock, Kydd; Kendall, Bruce E; Gaines, Steven D; Caselle, Jennifer E

2017-01-01

For broadly distributed, often overexploited species such as elasmobranchs (sharks and rays), conservation management would benefit from understanding how life history traits change in response to local environmental and ecological factors. However, fishing obfuscates this objective by causing complex and often mixed effects on the life histories of target species. Disentangling the many drivers of life history variability requires knowledge of elasmobranch populations in the absence of fishing, which is rarely available. Here, we describe the growth, maximum size, sex ratios, size at maturity, and offer a direct estimate of survival of an unfished population of grey reef sharks (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos) using data from an eight year tag-recapture study. We then synthesized published information on the life history of C. amblyrhynchos from across its geographic range, and for the first time, we attempted to disentangle the contribution of fishing from geographic variation in an elasmobranch species. For Palmyra's unfished C. amblyrhynchos population, the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) growth coefficient k was 0.05 and asymptotic length L∞ was 163.3 cm total length (TL). Maximum size was 175.5 cm TL from a female shark, length at maturity was estimated at 116.7-123.2 cm TL for male sharks, maximum lifespan estimated from VBGF parameters was 18.1 years for both sexes combined, and annual survival was 0.74 year-1. Consistent with findings from studies on other elasmobranch species, we found significant intraspecific variability in reported life history traits of C. amblyrhynchos. However, contrary to what others have reported, we did not find consistent patterns in life history variability as a function of biogeography or fishing. Ultimately, the substantial, but not yet predictable variability in life history traits observed for C. amblyrhynchos across its geographic range suggests that regional management may be necessary to set sustainable harvest targets and to recover this and other shark species globally.

Random Distribution Pattern and Non-adaptivity of Genome Size in a Highly Variable Population of Festuca pallens

PubMed Central

Šmarda, Petr; Bureš, Petr; Horová, Lucie

2007-01-01

Background and Aims The spatial and statistical distribution of genome sizes and the adaptivity of genome size to some types of habitat, vegetation or microclimatic conditions were investigated in a tetraploid population of Festuca pallens. The population was previously documented to vary highly in genome size and is assumed as a model for the study of the initial stages of genome size differentiation. Methods Using DAPI flow cytometry, samples were measured repeatedly with diploid Festuca pallens as the internal standard. Altogether 172 plants from 57 plots (2·25 m2), distributed in contrasting habitats over the whole locality in South Moravia, Czech Republic, were sampled. The differences in DNA content were confirmed by the double peaks of simultaneously measured samples. Key Results At maximum, a 1·115-fold difference in genome size was observed. The statistical distribution of genome sizes was found to be continuous and best fits the extreme (Gumbel) distribution with rare occurrences of extremely large genomes (positive-skewed), as it is similar for the log-normal distribution of the whole Angiosperms. Even plants from the same plot frequently varied considerably in genome size and the spatial distribution of genome sizes was generally random and unautocorrelated (P > 0·05). The observed spatial pattern and the overall lack of correlations of genome size with recognized vegetation types or microclimatic conditions indicate the absence of ecological adaptivity of genome size in the studied population. Conclusions These experimental data on intraspecific genome size variability in Festuca pallens argue for the absence of natural selection and the selective non-significance of genome size in the initial stages of genome size differentiation, and corroborate the current hypothetical model of genome size evolution in Angiosperms (Bennetzen et al., 2005, Annals of Botany 95: 127–132). PMID:17565968

The impact of large terrestrial carnivores on Pleistocene ecosystems

PubMed Central

Van Valkenburgh, Blaire; Ripple, William J.; Meloro, Carlo; Roth, V. Louise

2016-01-01

Large mammalian terrestrial herbivores, such as elephants, have dramatic effects on the ecosystems they inhabit and at high population densities their environmental impacts can be devastating. Pleistocene terrestrial ecosystems included a much greater diversity of megaherbivores (e.g., mammoths, mastodons, giant ground sloths) and thus a greater potential for widespread habitat degradation if population sizes were not limited. Nevertheless, based on modern observations, it is generally believed that populations of megaherbivores (>800 kg) are largely immune to the effects of predation and this perception has been extended into the Pleistocene. However, as shown here, the species richness of big carnivores was greater in the Pleistocene and many of them were significantly larger than their modern counterparts. Fossil evidence suggests that interspecific competition among carnivores was relatively intense and reveals that some individuals specialized in consuming megaherbivores. To estimate the potential impact of Pleistocene large carnivores, we use both historic and modern data on predator–prey body mass relationships to predict size ranges of their typical and maximum prey when hunting as individuals and in groups. These prey size ranges are then compared with estimates of juvenile and subadult proboscidean body sizes derived from extant elephant growth data. Young proboscideans at their most vulnerable age fall within the predicted prey size ranges of many of the Pleistocene carnivores. Predation on juveniles can have a greater impact on megaherbivores because of their long interbirth intervals, and consequently, we argue that Pleistocene carnivores had the capacity to, and likely did, limit megaherbivore population sizes. PMID:26504224

Growth, productivity, and relative extinction risk of a data-sparse devil ray

PubMed Central

Pardo, Sebastián A.; Kindsvater, Holly K.; Cuevas-Zimbrón, Elizabeth; Sosa-Nishizaki, Oscar; Pérez-Jiménez, Juan Carlos; Dulvy, Nicholas K.

2016-01-01

Devil rays (Mobula spp.) face intensifying fishing pressure to meet the ongoing international demand for gill plates. The paucity of information on growth, mortality, and fishing effort for devil rays make quantifying population growth rates and extinction risk challenging. Furthermore, unlike manta rays (Manta spp.), devil rays have not been listed on CITES. Here, we use a published size-at-age dataset for the Spinetail Devil Ray (Mobula japanica), to estimate somatic growth rates, age at maturity, maximum age, and natural and fishing mortality. We then estimate a plausible distribution of the maximum intrinsic population growth rate (rmax) and compare it to 95 other chondrichthyans. We find evidence that larger devil ray species have low somatic growth rate, low annual reproductive output, and low maximum population growth rates, suggesting they have low productivity. Fishing rates of a small-scale artisanal Mexican fishery were comparable to our estimate of rmax, and therefore probably unsustainable. Devil ray rmax is very similar to that of manta rays, indicating devil rays can potentially be driven to local extinction at low levels of fishing mortality and that a similar degree of protection for both groups is warranted. PMID:27658342

Effects of wind energy production on growth, demography, and survivorship of a Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) population in Southern California with comparisons to natural populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovich, J.E.; Ennen, J.R.; Madrak, S.; Meyer, K.; Loughran, C.; Bjurlin, C.; Arundel, T.; Turner, W.; Jones, C.; Groenendaal, G.M.

2011-01-01

We studied a Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) population at a large wind energy generation facility near Palm Springs, California over six field seasons from 1997 to 2010. We compared growth and demographic parameters to populations living in less disturbed areas; as well as populations of the closely-related and newly-described G. morafkai elsewhere in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona. We marked 69 individuals of all size classes and estimated a population size of 96 tortoises, or about 15.4/km2. Growth rates for males were lower than reported elsewhere, although maximum body size was larger. The smallest female with shelled eggs was 221 mm and males mature at over 200 mm. Mean male size was greater than that of females. The adult sex ratio was not significantly different from unity. Size frequency histograms were similar over time and when compared to most, but not all, G. morafkai populations in the Sonoran Desert. For a cohort of adult females, we estimated mortality at 8.4% annually due, in part, to site operations. This value was low in comparison to many other populations during the same time period. Other than possible differences in growth rate of males and the high survivorship of females, there appear to be few differences between this population and those in more natural areas. The high productivity of food plants at the site and its limited public access may contribute to the overall stability of the population. However, the effects of utility-scale renewable energy development on tortoises in other, less productive, areas are unknown. Additional research (especially controlled and replicated before and after studies) is urgently needed to address this deficiency because of forecasted expansion of utility-scale renewable energy development in the future.

Energetic and ecological constraints on population density of reef fishes.

PubMed

Barneche, D R; Kulbicki, M; Floeter, S R; Friedlander, A M; Allen, A P

2016-01-27

Population ecology has classically focused on pairwise species interactions, hindering the description of general patterns and processes of population abundance at large spatial scales. Here we use the metabolic theory of ecology as a framework to formulate and test a model that yields predictions linking population density to the physiological constraints of body size and temperature on individual metabolism, and the ecological constraints of trophic structure and species richness on energy partitioning among species. Our model was tested by applying Bayesian quantile regression to a comprehensive reef-fish community database, from which we extracted density data for 5609 populations spread across 49 sites around the world. Our results indicate that population density declines markedly with increases in community species richness and that, after accounting for richness, energetic constraints are manifested most strongly for the most abundant species, which generally are of small body size and occupy lower trophic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that, at the global scale, factors associated with community species richness are the major drivers of variation in population density. Given that populations of species-rich tropical systems exhibit markedly lower maximum densities, they may be particularly susceptible to stochastic extinction. © 2016 The Author(s).

Energetic and ecological constraints on population density of reef fishes

PubMed Central

Barneche, D. R.; Kulbicki, M.; Floeter, S. R.; Friedlander, A. M.; Allen, A. P.

2016-01-01

Population ecology has classically focused on pairwise species interactions, hindering the description of general patterns and processes of population abundance at large spatial scales. Here we use the metabolic theory of ecology as a framework to formulate and test a model that yields predictions linking population density to the physiological constraints of body size and temperature on individual metabolism, and the ecological constraints of trophic structure and species richness on energy partitioning among species. Our model was tested by applying Bayesian quantile regression to a comprehensive reef-fish community database, from which we extracted density data for 5609 populations spread across 49 sites around the world. Our results indicate that population density declines markedly with increases in community species richness and that, after accounting for richness, energetic constraints are manifested most strongly for the most abundant species, which generally are of small body size and occupy lower trophic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that, at the global scale, factors associated with community species richness are the major drivers of variation in population density. Given that populations of species-rich tropical systems exhibit markedly lower maximum densities, they may be particularly susceptible to stochastic extinction. PMID:26791611

Population size drives industrial Saccharomyces cerevisiae alcoholic fermentation and is under genetic control.

PubMed

Albertin, Warren; Marullo, Philippe; Aigle, Michel; Dillmann, Christine; de Vienne, Dominique; Bely, Marina; Sicard, Delphine

2011-04-01

Alcoholic fermentation (AF) conducted by Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been exploited for millennia in three important human food processes: beer and wine production and bread leavening. Most of the efforts to understand and improve AF have been made separately for each process, with strains that are supposedly well adapted. In this work, we propose a first comparison of yeast AFs in three synthetic media mimicking the dough/wort/grape must found in baking, brewing, and wine making. The fermentative behaviors of nine food-processing strains were evaluated in these media, at the cellular, populational, and biotechnological levels. A large variation in the measured traits was observed, with medium effects usually being greater than the strain effects. The results suggest that human selection targeted the ability to complete fermentation for wine strains and trehalose content for beer strains. Apart from these features, the food origin of the strains did not significantly affect AF, suggesting that an improvement program for a specific food processing industry could exploit the variability of strains used in other industries. Glucose utilization was analyzed, revealing plastic but also genetic variation in fermentation products and indicating that artificial selection could be used to modify the production of glycerol, acetate, etc. The major result was that the overall maximum CO(2) production rate (V(max)) was not related to the maximum CO(2) production rate per cell. Instead, a highly significant correlation between V(max) and the maximum population size was observed in all three media, indicating that human selection targeted the efficiency of cellular reproduction rather than metabolic efficiency. This result opens the way to new strategies for yeast improvement.

Population Size Drives Industrial Saccharomyces cerevisiae Alcoholic Fermentation and Is under Genetic Control▿†‡

PubMed Central

Albertin, Warren; Marullo, Philippe; Aigle, Michel; Dillmann, Christine; de Vienne, Dominique; Bely, Marina; Sicard, Delphine

2011-01-01

Alcoholic fermentation (AF) conducted by Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been exploited for millennia in three important human food processes: beer and wine production and bread leavening. Most of the efforts to understand and improve AF have been made separately for each process, with strains that are supposedly well adapted. In this work, we propose a first comparison of yeast AFs in three synthetic media mimicking the dough/wort/grape must found in baking, brewing, and wine making. The fermentative behaviors of nine food-processing strains were evaluated in these media, at the cellular, populational, and biotechnological levels. A large variation in the measured traits was observed, with medium effects usually being greater than the strain effects. The results suggest that human selection targeted the ability to complete fermentation for wine strains and trehalose content for beer strains. Apart from these features, the food origin of the strains did not significantly affect AF, suggesting that an improvement program for a specific food processing industry could exploit the variability of strains used in other industries. Glucose utilization was analyzed, revealing plastic but also genetic variation in fermentation products and indicating that artificial selection could be used to modify the production of glycerol, acetate, etc. The major result was that the overall maximum CO2 production rate (Vmax) was not related to the maximum CO2 production rate per cell. Instead, a highly significant correlation between Vmax and the maximum population size was observed in all three media, indicating that human selection targeted the efficiency of cellular reproduction rather than metabolic efficiency. This result opens the way to new strategies for yeast improvement. PMID:21357433

Effects of trichloroethylene and perchloroethylene on wild rodents at Edwards Air Force Base, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spring, Sarah E.; Miles, A. Keith; Anderson, Michael J.

2004-01-01

Effects of inhalation of volatilized trichloroethylene (TCE) or perchloroethylene (PCE) were assessed based on the health and population size of wild, burrowing mammals at Edwards Air Force Base (CA, USA). Organic soil-vapor concentrations were measured at three sites with aquifer contamination of TCE or PCE of 5.5 to 77 mg/L and at two uncontaminated reference sites. Population estimates of kangaroo rats (Dipodomys merriami and D. panamintinus) as well as hematology, blood chemistry, and histopathology of kangaroo rats and deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) were compared between contaminated and uncontaminated populations. Maximum soil-gas concentrations associated with groundwater contamination were less than 1.5 μl/L of TCE and 0.07 μl/L of PCE. Population estimates of kangaroo rats were similar at contaminated and reference sites. Hematology, blood chemistry, and histopathology of kangaroo rats and deer mice indicated no evidence of health effects caused by exposure. Trichloroethylene or PCE in groundwater and in related soil gas did not appear to reduce the size of small mammal populations or impair the health of individuals.

Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

PubMed Central

Laver, Rebecca J.; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S.

2012-01-01

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

The size of the irregular migrant population in the European Union – counting the uncountable?

PubMed

Vogel, Dita; Kovacheva, Vesela; Prescott, Hannah

2011-01-01

It is difficult to estimate the size of the irregular migrant population in a specific city or country, and even more difficult to arrive at estimates at the European level. A review of past attempts at European-level estimates reveals that they rely on rough and outdated rules-of-thumb. In this paper, we present our own European level estimates for 2002, 2005, and 2008. We aggregate country-specific information, aiming at approximate comparability by consistent use of minimum and maximum estimates and by adjusting for obvious differences in definition and timescale. While the aggregated estimates are not considered highly reliable, they do -- for the first time -- provide transparency. The provision of more systematic medium quality estimates is shown to be the most promising way for improvement. The presented estimate indicates a minimum of 1.9 million and a maximum of 3.8 million irregular foreign residents in the 27 member states of the European Union (2008). Unlike rules-of-thumb, the aggregated EU estimates indicate a decline in the number of irregular foreign residents between 2002 and 2008. This decline has been influenced by the EU enlargement and legalisation programmes.

Monte Carlo simulations on marker grouping and ordering.

PubMed

Wu, J; Jenkins, J; Zhu, J; McCarty, J; Watson, C

2003-08-01

Four global algorithms, maximum likelihood (ML), sum of adjacent LOD score (SALOD), sum of adjacent recombinant fractions (SARF) and product of adjacent recombinant fraction (PARF), and one approximation algorithm, seriation (SER), were used to compare the marker ordering efficiencies for correctly given linkage groups based on doubled haploid (DH) populations. The Monte Carlo simulation results indicated the marker ordering powers for the five methods were almost identical. High correlation coefficients were greater than 0.99 between grouping power and ordering power, indicating that all these methods for marker ordering were reliable. Therefore, the main problem for linkage analysis was how to improve the grouping power. Since the SER approach provided the advantage of speed without losing ordering power, this approach was used for detailed simulations. For more generality, multiple linkage groups were employed, and population size, linkage cutoff criterion, marker spacing pattern (even or uneven), and marker spacing distance (close or loose) were considered for obtaining acceptable grouping powers. Simulation results indicated that the grouping power was related to population size, marker spacing distance, and cutoff criterion. Generally, a large population size provided higher grouping power than small population size, and closely linked markers provided higher grouping power than loosely linked markers. The cutoff criterion range for achieving acceptable grouping power and ordering power differed for varying cases; however, combining all situations in this study, a cutoff criterion ranging from 50 cM to 60 cM was recommended for achieving acceptable grouping power and ordering power for different cases.

A morphological and functional basis for maximum prey size in piscivorous fishes

PubMed Central

Bellwood, David R.

2017-01-01

Fish predation is important in shaping populations and community structure in aquatic systems. These predator-prey interactions can be influenced by environmental, behavioural and morphological factors. Morphological constraints influence the feeding performance of species, and interspecific differences can thus affect patterns of resource use. For piscivorous fishes that swallow prey whole, feeding performance has traditionally been linked to three key morphological constraints: oral gape, pharyngeal gape, and the cleithral gape. However, other constraints may be important. We therefore examine 18 potential morphological constraints related to prey capture and processing, on four predatory species (Cephalopholis urodeta, Paracirrhites forsteri, Pterois volitans, Lates calcarifer). Aquarium-based experiments were then carried out to determine capture and processing behaviour and maximum prey size in two focal species, C. urodeta and P. forsteri. All four species showed a progressive decrease in gape measurements from anterior to posterior with oral gape ≥ buccal ≥ pharyngeal ≥ pectoral girdle ≥ esophagus ≥ stomach. C. urodeta was able to process prey with a maximum depth of 27% of the predators’ standard length; for P. forsteri it was 20%. C. urodeta captured prey head-first in 79% of successful strikes. In P. forsteri head-first was 16.6%, mid-body 44.4%, and tail-first 38.8%. Regardless of capture mode, prey were almost always swallowed head first and horizontally in both focal species. Most internal measurements appeared too small for prey to pass through. This may reflect the compressibility of prey, i.e. their ability to be dorsoventrally compressed during swallowing movements. Despite examining all known potential morphological constraints on prey size, horizontal maxillary oral gape in a mechanically stretched position appears to be the main morphological variable that is likely to affect maximum prey size and resource use by these predatory species. PMID:28886161

Atypical reproductive cycles in a population of Sceloporus grammicus (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae) from the Mexican Plateau

PubMed Central

Ramírez-Bautista, Aurelio; Stephenson, Barry P; Lozano, Abraham; Uribe-Rodríguez, Héctor; Leyte Manrique, Adrian

2012-01-01

The spiny lizard Sceloporus grammicus (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae) is a small reptile from central México and the southern United States, occurring in a wide geographic area characterized by extensive variation in topographic and climatic regimes. Genetic variation among lineages from central México is substantial, though the extent to which this variation corresponds with life-history traits remains obscure. To address part of this puzzle, we studied a population of S. grammicus from Tepeapulco, Hidalgo, México. Male-biased sexual dimorphism was extensive in this population; males were larger than females overall, and expressed proportionately larger heads and longer limbs. Minimum size at sexual maturity was similar in the sexes (males: 43 mm; females: 42 mm). In contrast to other populations from the Central Plateau, reproductive activity of males and females was synchronous. Testicular recrudescence of adult males was initiated in October–November, and maximum testis size maintained from December to July. Female reproductive activity showed no clear seasonal pattern: females had vitellogenic follicles from October to July, and pregnant females were found throughout the year. Female body size was not related to litter size. Neither male nor female gonadal mass was correlated with any abiotic environmental variable examined. Differences in reproductive characteristics among populations of S. grammicus might be indicative of plasticity in response to local environmental conditions, local adaptation, or complex gene × environment interactions. We consider these results in the context of previously studied populations of S. grammicus from the Central Plateau and elsewhere, and propose directions for future research. PMID:22957191

Temperature-stress resistance and tolerance along a latitudinal cline in North American Arabidopsis lyrata.

PubMed

Wos, Guillaume; Willi, Yvonne

2015-01-01

The study of latitudinal gradients can yield important insights into adaptation to temperature stress. Two strategies are available: resistance by limiting damage, or tolerance by reducing the fitness consequences of damage. Here we studied latitudinal variation in resistance and tolerance to frost and heat and tested the prediction of a trade-off between the two strategies and their costliness. We raised plants of replicate maternal seed families from eight populations of North American Arabidopsis lyrata collected along a latitudinal gradient in climate chambers and exposed them repeatedly to either frost or heat stress, while a set of control plants grew under standard conditions. When control plants reached maximum rosette size, leaf samples were exposed to frost and heat stress, and electrolyte leakage (PEL) was measured and treated as an estimate of resistance. Difference in maximum rosette size between stressed and control plants was used as an estimate of tolerance. Northern populations were more frost resistant, and less heat resistant and less heat tolerant, but-unexpectedly-they were also less frost tolerant. Negative genetic correlations between resistance and tolerance to the same and different thermal stress were generally not significant, indicating only weak trade-offs. However, tolerance to frost was consistently accompanied by small size under control conditions, which may explain the non-adaptive latitudinal pattern for frost tolerance. Our results suggest that adaptation to frost and heat is not constrained by trade-offs between them. But the cost of frost tolerance in terms of plant size reduction may be important for the limits of species distributions and climate niches.

Food intake and growth of Sarsia tubulosa (SARS, 1835), with quantitative estimates of predation on copepod populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daan, Rogier

In laboratory tests food intake by the hydromedusa Sarsia tubulosa, which feeds on copepods, was quantified. Estimates of maximum predation are presented for 10 size classes of Sarsia. Growth rates, too, were determined in the laboratory, at 12°C under ad libitum food conditions. Mean gross food conversion for all size classes averaged 12%. From the results of a frequent sampling programme, carried out in the Texelstroom (a tidal inlet of the Dutch Wadden Sea) in 1983, growth rates of Sarsia in the field equalled maximum growth under experimental conditions, which suggests that Sarsia in situ can feed at an optimum level. Two estimates of predation pressure in the field matched very closely and lead to the conclusion that the impact of Sarsia predation on copepod standing stocks in the Dutch coastal area, including the Wadden Sea, is generally negligible.

Selective fishing induces density-dependent growth.

PubMed

Svedäng, Henrik; Hornborg, Sara

2014-06-12

Over the last decades, views on fisheries management have oscillated between alarm and trust in management progress. The predominant policy for remedying the world fishing crisis aims at maximum sustainable yield (MSY) by adjusting gear selectivity and fishing effort. Here we report a case study on how striving for higher yields from the Eastern Baltic cod stock by increasing selectivity has become exceedingly detrimental for its productivity. Although there is a successive increase in numbers of undersized fish, growth potential is severely reduced, and fishing mortality in fishable size has increased. Once density-dependent growth is introduced, the process is self-enforcing as long as the recruitment remains stable. Our findings suggest that policies focusing on maximum yield while targeting greater sizes are risky and should instead prioritize catch rates over yield. Disregarding the underlying population structure may jeopardize stock productivity, with dire consequences for the fishing industry and ecosystem structure and function.

Estimates of effective population size and inbreeding in South African indigenous chicken populations: implications for the conservation of unique genetic resources.

PubMed

Mtileni, Bohani; Dzama, Kennedy; Nephawe, Khathutshelo; Rhode, Clint

2016-06-01

Conservation of locally adapted indigenous livestock breeds has become an important objective in sustainable animal breeding, as these breeds represent a unique genetic resource. Therefore, the Agricultural Research Council of South Africa initiated a conservation programme for four South African indigenous chicken breeds. The evaluation and monitoring of the genetic constitution of these conservation flocks is important for proper management of the conservation programme. Using molecular genetic analyses, the effective population sizes and relatedness of these conservation flocks were compared to village (field) chicken populations from which they were derived. Genetic diversity within and between these populations are further discussed within the context of population size. The conservation flocks for the respective breeds had relatively small effective population sizes (point estimate range 38.6-78.6) in comparison to the field populations (point estimate range 118.9-580.0). Furthermore, evidence supports a transient heterozygous excess, generally associated with the occurrence of a recent population bottleneck. Genetic diversity, as measured by the number of alleles, heterozygosity and information index, was also significantly reduced in the conservation flocks. The average relatedness amongst the conservation flocks was high, whilst it remained low for the field populations. There was also significant evidence for population differentiation between field and conservation populations. F st estimates for conservation flocks were moderate to high with a maximum reached between VD_C and VD_F (0.285). However, F st estimates for field population were excessively low between the NN_C and EC_F (0.007) and between EC_F and OV_F (0.009). The significant population differentiation of the conservation flocks from their geographically correlated field populations of origin is further supported by the analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), with 10.51 % of genetic diversity ascribed to population differences within groups (F SC = 0.106). The results suggest that significant genetic erosion has occurred within the conservation flocks due to inbreeding, pronounced effects of random drift and selection. It might be necessary to introduce new breeding individuals from the respective field populations in order to increase the effective population sizes of the conservation flocks and counter the effects of genetic erosion.

Population Structure of Montastraea cavernosa on Shallow versus Mesophotic Reefs in Bermuda

PubMed Central

Goodbody-Gringley, Gretchen; Marchini, Chiara; Chequer, Alex D.; Goffredo, Stefano

2015-01-01

Mesophotic coral reef ecosystems remain largely unexplored with only limited information available on taxonomic composition, abundance and distribution. Yet, mesophotic reefs may serve as potential refugia for shallow-water species and thus understanding biodiversity, ecology and connectivity of deep reef communities is integral for resource management and conservation. The Caribbean coral, Montastraea cavernosa, is considered a depth generalist and is commonly found at mesophotic depths. We surveyed abundance and size-frequency of M. cavernosa populations at six shallow (10m) and six upper mesophotic (45m) sites in Bermuda and found population structure was depth dependent. The mean surface area of colonies at mesophotic sites was significantly smaller than at shallow sites, suggesting that growth rates and maximum colony surface area are limited on mesophotic reefs. Colony density was significantly higher at mesophotic sites, however, resulting in equal contributions to overall percent cover. Size-frequency distributions between shallow and mesophotic sites were also significantly different with populations at mesophotic reefs skewed towards smaller individuals. Overall, the results of this study provide valuable baseline data on population structure, which indicate that the mesophotic reefs of Bermuda support an established population of M. cavernosa. PMID:26544963

Population Structure of Montastraea cavernosa on Shallow versus Mesophotic Reefs in Bermuda.

PubMed

Goodbody-Gringley, Gretchen; Marchini, Chiara; Chequer, Alex D; Goffredo, Stefano

2015-01-01

Mesophotic coral reef ecosystems remain largely unexplored with only limited information available on taxonomic composition, abundance and distribution. Yet, mesophotic reefs may serve as potential refugia for shallow-water species and thus understanding biodiversity, ecology and connectivity of deep reef communities is integral for resource management and conservation. The Caribbean coral, Montastraea cavernosa, is considered a depth generalist and is commonly found at mesophotic depths. We surveyed abundance and size-frequency of M. cavernosa populations at six shallow (10m) and six upper mesophotic (45m) sites in Bermuda and found population structure was depth dependent. The mean surface area of colonies at mesophotic sites was significantly smaller than at shallow sites, suggesting that growth rates and maximum colony surface area are limited on mesophotic reefs. Colony density was significantly higher at mesophotic sites, however, resulting in equal contributions to overall percent cover. Size-frequency distributions between shallow and mesophotic sites were also significantly different with populations at mesophotic reefs skewed towards smaller individuals. Overall, the results of this study provide valuable baseline data on population structure, which indicate that the mesophotic reefs of Bermuda support an established population of M. cavernosa.

[On the maximum population size of a modernized China from the perspective of food resources].

PubMed

Song, J; Sun, Y

1981-04-25

The yearly per capita amounts of protein consumption between China, France, Japan, and the US are compared. Based on human dietary protein requirements and using quantitative methods and a mathematical model, the maximum population that can be supported by China's 9.6 million sq km of land after 2000 is calculated. The mathematical equation used is: ZGB + DBG = H; where ZGB is the ratio of plant protein over total protein required by the body consumed per unit time, and DGB is the ratio of animal protein over total protein required by the body consumed per unit time. H 1 means an excessive, H = 1 a balanced, and H 1 a deficient protein supply. Based on an average per capita daily energy requirement of 2,272 kcal, ZGB, DGB, and H are calculated for China, France, Japan and the US. The values between China and the US represent the extremes, with ZGB = 0.5776, DGB = 0.0813, and H = 0.6589 for China and ZGB = 0.2559, DGB = 0.8266, and H = 1.0825 for the US. Under the same conditions of land mass and unit production, the larger the H and DGB, the smaller a population that can be sustained. Conversely, the smaller the H and DGB, the larger the population that can be sustained. Using the values calculated by this equation, in order for China to attain a dietary level within 100 years comparable to that of the current US level, the Chinese population would have to be controlled to a size of about 680 million. A mathematical model for a balanced diet is given as an appendix.

Modelling size-dependent cannibalism in barramundi Lates calcarifer: cannibalistic polyphenism and its implication to aquaculture.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Flavio F; Qin, Jian G

2013-01-01

This study quantified size-dependent cannibalism in barramundi Lates calcarifer through coupling a range of prey-predator pairs in a different range of fish sizes. Predictive models were developed using morphological traits with the alterative assumption of cannibalistic polyphenism. Predictive models were validated with the data from trials where cannibals were challenged with progressing increments of prey sizes. The experimental observations showed that cannibals of 25-131 mm total length could ingest the conspecific prey of 78-72% cannibal length. In the validation test, all predictive models underestimate the maximum ingestible prey size for cannibals of a similar size range. However, the model based on the maximal mouth width at opening closely matched the empirical observations, suggesting a certain degree of phenotypic plasticity of mouth size among cannibalistic individuals. Mouth size showed allometric growth comparing with body depth, resulting in a decreasing trend on the maximum size of ingestible prey as cannibals grow larger, which in parts explains why cannibalism in barramundi is frequently observed in the early developmental stage. Any barramundi has the potential to become a cannibal when the initial prey size was <50% of the cannibal body length, but fish could never become a cannibal when prey were >58% of their size, suggesting that 50% of size difference can be the threshold to initiate intracohort cannibalism in a barramundi population. Cannibalistic polyphenism was likely to occur in barramundi that had a cannibalistic history. An experienced cannibal would have a greater ability to stretch its mouth size to capture a much larger prey than the models predict. The awareness of cannibalistic polyphenism has important application in fish farming management to reduce cannibalism.

Modelling Size-Dependent Cannibalism in Barramundi Lates calcarifer: Cannibalistic Polyphenism and Its Implication to Aquaculture

PubMed Central

Ribeiro, Flavio F.; Qin, Jian G.

2013-01-01

This study quantified size-dependent cannibalism in barramundi Lates calcarifer through coupling a range of prey-predator pairs in a different range of fish sizes. Predictive models were developed using morphological traits with the alterative assumption of cannibalistic polyphenism. Predictive models were validated with the data from trials where cannibals were challenged with progressing increments of prey sizes. The experimental observations showed that cannibals of 25–131 mm total length could ingest the conspecific prey of 78–72% cannibal length. In the validation test, all predictive models underestimate the maximum ingestible prey size for cannibals of a similar size range. However, the model based on the maximal mouth width at opening closely matched the empirical observations, suggesting a certain degree of phenotypic plasticity of mouth size among cannibalistic individuals. Mouth size showed allometric growth comparing with body depth, resulting in a decreasing trend on the maximum size of ingestible prey as cannibals grow larger, which in parts explains why cannibalism in barramundi is frequently observed in the early developmental stage. Any barramundi has the potential to become a cannibal when the initial prey size was <50% of the cannibal body length, but fish could never become a cannibal when prey were >58% of their size, suggesting that 50% of size difference can be the threshold to initiate intracohort cannibalism in a barramundi population. Cannibalistic polyphenism was likely to occur in barramundi that had a cannibalistic history. An experienced cannibal would have a greater ability to stretch its mouth size to capture a much larger prey than the models predict. The awareness of cannibalistic polyphenism has important application in fish farming management to reduce cannibalism. PMID:24349295

Molecular dynamics of liquid SiO2 under high pressure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rustad, James R.; Yuen, David A.; Spera, Frank J.

1990-01-01

The molecular dynamics of pure SiO2 liquids was investigated up to pressures of 20 GPa at 4000 K using 252, 498, 864, and 1371 particles. The results obtained suggest that the pressure-induced maxima in the self-diffusion coefficients of both oxygen and silicon are dependent on the system size. In the case of larger systems, the maximum decreases and shifts to lower pressures. Changes in the velocity autocorrelation function with increasing pressure are described. The populations of anomalously coordinated silicon and oxygen are then discussed as a function of pressure and system size.

The search for valved conduit tissue grafts for adults (>22 mm): an ultrasonographic study of jugular vein diameters of horses and cattle

PubMed Central

Schwarzwald, Colin C; Jenni, Rolf

2009-01-01

Background Natural heterologous valved conduits with a diameter greater than 22 mm that can be used for right ventricular outflow tract reconstruction in adults are not commercially available. The purpose of this study was to measure by ultrasonography the maximum diameter of the distended jugular veins of horses and cattle, respectively, to identify a population of animals that would be suitable for post-mortem collection of jugular veins at sizes greater than 22 mm. Methods The study population included 60 Warmblood horses, 25 Freiberger horses, 20 Brown Swiss cows, and 20 Holstein cows (including 10 Holstein and 10 Red Holstein). The maximum cross-sectional diameter of the distended jugular veins was measured at a location half-way between the mandibular angle and the thoracic inlet. The thoracic circumference (heart girth length) was used as a surrogate of body size. The jugular vein diameters of the different populations were compared by analysis of variance and the association between heart girth length and jugular vein diameter was determined in each of the four study populations by linear regression analysis. Results There was considerable individual variation of jugular vein diameters within each of the four study populations. There was no statistically significant relationship between thoracic circumference and jugular vein diameter in any of the populations. The jugular vein diameters of Brown Swiss cows were significantly larger than those of any of the other populations. Warmblood horses had significantly larger jugular vein diameters compared to Freiberger horses. Conclusion The results of this study suggest that the production of bovine or equine xenografts with diameters of greater than 22 mm would be feasible. Differences between species and breeds need to be considered. However, prediction of the jugular vein diameter based on breed and heart girth length in an individual animal is inaccurate. PMID:19678940

Body size, performance and fitness in galapagos marine iguanas.

PubMed

Wikelski, Martin; Romero, L Michael

2003-07-01

Complex organismal traits such as body size are influenced by innumerable selective pressures, making the prediction of evolutionary trajectories for those traits difficult. A potentially powerful way to predict fitness in natural systems is to study the composite response of individuals in terms of performance measures, such as foraging or reproductive performance. Once key performance measures are identified in this top-down approach, we can determine the underlying physiological mechanisms and gain predictive power over long-term evolutionary processes. Here we use marine iguanas as a model system where body size differs by more than one order of magnitude between island populations. We identified foraging efficiency as the main performance measure that constrains body size. Mechanistically, foraging performance is determined by food pasture height and the thermal environment, influencing intake and digestion. Stress hormones may be a flexible way of influencing an individual's response to low-food situations that may be caused by high population density, famines, or anthropogenic disturbances like oil spills. Reproductive performance, on the other hand, increases with body size and is mediated by higher survival of larger hatchlings from larger females and increased mating success of larger males. Reproductive performance of males may be adjusted via plastic hormonal feedback mechanisms that allow individuals to assess their social rank annually within the current population size structure. When integrated, these data suggest that reproductive performance favors increased body size (influenced by reproductive hormones), with an overall limit imposed by foraging performance (influenced by stress hormones). Based on our mechanistic understanding of individual performances we predicted an evolutionary increase in maximum body size caused by global warming trends. We support this prediction using specimens collected during 1905. We also show in a common-garden experiment that body size may have a genetic component in iguanids. This 'performance paradigm' allows predictions about adaptive evolution in natural populations.

Moderate climate signature in cranial anatomy of late holocene human populations from Southern South America.

PubMed

Paula Menéndez, Lumila

2018-02-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the association between cranial variation and climate in order to discuss their role during the diversification of southern South American populations. Therefore, the specific objectives are: (1) to explore the spatial pattern of cranial variation with regard to the climatic diversity of the region, and (2) to evaluate the differential impact that the climatic factors may have had on the shape and size of the diverse cranial structures studied. The variation in shape and size of 361 crania was studied, registering 62 3D landmarks that capture shape and size variation in the face, cranial vault, and base. Mean, minimum, and maximum annual temperature, as well as mean annual precipitation, but also diet and altitude, were matched for each population sample. A PCA, as well as spatial statistical techniques, including kriging, regression, and multimodel inference were employed. The facial skeleton size presents a latitudinal pattern which is partially associated with temperature diversity. Both diet and altitude are the variables that mainly explain the skull shape variation, although mean annual temperature also plays a role. The association between climate factors and cranial variation is low to moderate, mean annual temperature explains almost 40% of the entire skull, facial skeleton and cranial vault shape variation, while annual precipitation and minimum annual temperature only contribute to the morphological variation when considered together with maximum annual temperature. The cranial base is the structure less associated with climate diversity. These results suggest that climate factors may have had a partial impact on the facial and vault shape, and therefore contributed moderately to the diversification of southern South American populations, while diet and altitude might have had a stronger impact. Therefore, cranial variation at the southern cone has been shaped both by random and nonrandom factors. Particularly, the influence of climate on skull shape has probably been the result of directional selection. This study supports that, although cranial vault is the cranial structure more associated to mean annual temperature, the impact of climate signature on morphology decreases when populations from extreme cold environments are excluded from the analysis. Additionally, it shows that the extent of the geographical scales analyzed, as well as differential sampling may lead to different results regarding the role of ecological factors and evolutionary processes on cranial morphology. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Optimizing the design of small-sized nucleus breeding programs for dairy cattle with minimal performance recording.

PubMed

Kariuki, C M; Komen, H; Kahi, A K; van Arendonk, J A M

2014-12-01

Dairy cattle breeding programs in developing countries are constrained by minimal and erratic pedigree and performance recording on cows on commercial farms. Small-sized nucleus breeding programs offer a viable alternative. Deterministic simulations using selection index theory were performed to determine the optimum design for small-sized nucleus schemes for dairy cattle. The nucleus was made up of 197 bulls and 243 cows distributed in 8 non-overlapping age classes. Each year 10 sires and 100 dams were selected to produce the next generation of male and female selection candidates. Conception rates and sex ratio were fixed at 0.90 and 0.50, respectively, translating to 45 male and 45 female candidates joining the nucleus per year. Commercial recorded dams provided information for genetic evaluation of selection candidates (bulls) in the nucleus. Five strategies were defined: nucleus records only [within-nucleus dam performance (DP)], progeny records in addition to nucleus records [progeny testing (PT)], genomic information only [genomic selection (GS)], dam performance records in addition to genomic information (GS+DP), and progeny records in addition to genomic information (GS+PT). Alternative PT, GS, GS+DP, and GS+PT schemes differed in the number of progeny per sire and size of reference population. The maximum number of progeny records per sire was 30, and the maximum size of the reference population was 5,000. Results show that GS schemes had higher responses and lower accuracies compared with other strategies, with the higher response being due to shorter generation intervals. Compared with similar sized progeny-testing schemes, genomic-selection schemes would have lower accuracies but these are offset by higher responses per year, which might provide additional incentive for farmers to participate in recording. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating population genetic parameters and comparing model goodness-of-fit using DNA sequences with error

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaoming; Fu, Yun-Xin; Maxwell, Taylor J.; Boerwinkle, Eric

2010-01-01

It is known that sequencing error can bias estimation of evolutionary or population genetic parameters. This problem is more prominent in deep resequencing studies because of their large sample size n, and a higher probability of error at each nucleotide site. We propose a new method based on the composite likelihood of the observed SNP configurations to infer population mutation rate θ = 4Neμ, population exponential growth rate R, and error rate ɛ, simultaneously. Using simulation, we show the combined effects of the parameters, θ, n, ɛ, and R on the accuracy of parameter estimation. We compared our maximum composite likelihood estimator (MCLE) of θ with other θ estimators that take into account the error. The results show the MCLE performs well when the sample size is large or the error rate is high. Using parametric bootstrap, composite likelihood can also be used as a statistic for testing the model goodness-of-fit of the observed DNA sequences. The MCLE method is applied to sequence data on the ANGPTL4 gene in 1832 African American and 1045 European American individuals. PMID:19952140

Status and Natural History of Emballonura Semicaudata Rotensis on Aguiguan, Mariana Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiles, Gary J.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Worthington, David J.; Esselstyn, Jacob A.; Valdez, Ernest W.

2011-01-01

Pacific sheath-tailed bats (Emballonura semicaudata rotensis) in the Mariana Islands declined greatly in abundance and distribution during the 20th century. The small island of Aguiguan now supports the only persisting population. We studied abundance and natural history of this population from 1995–2008. There was a likely population increase during the study, with 359–466 (minimum and maximum) bats counted at caves in 2008. Bats roosted only in caves, primarily those of relatively larger size. Bats were detected in only seven of 95 caves; three caves were always occupied when surveyed. One cave consistently had the largest colony ( ± SD = 333 ± 33.6 in 2008). Others held 1–64 bats. Cave environments showed no complexities in temperature or humidity. Preliminary observations indicate a litter size of one and the possibility of birthing timed to coincide with the transitional period leading into the rainy season (June–July). We review potential threats to E. s. rotensis on Aguiguan and make suggestions for conservation.

Managing the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaque population: The role of density.

PubMed

Hernandez-Pacheco, Raisa; Delgado, Diana L; Rawlins, Richard G; Kessler, Matthew J; Ruiz-Lambides, Angelina V; Maldonado, Elizabeth; Sabat, Alberto M

2016-01-01

Cayo Santiago is the oldest continuously operating free-ranging rhesus monkey colony in the world. Population control of this colony has historically been carried out by periodic live capture and removal of animals. However, the effect of such a strategy on the size, growth rate, age structure, and sex ratio of the population has not been analyzed. This study reviews past removal data and uses a population projection model to simulate the effects of different removal schemes based on Cayo Santiago demographic data from 2000-2012. The model incorporates negative density-dependence in female fertility, as well as male and female survival rates, to determine the population-level effects of selective removal by age and sex. Modeling revealed that removal of sexually immature individuals has negligible effects on the population dynamics explaining why with an initial population of 1309 in 2000 and annual removals of immature monkeys a mean annual population growth rate of 12% and a final population size of ∼1,435 individuals by 2012 (∼0.009 animal/m(2) ) was observed. With no removals, the population is expected to exhibit dampened oscillations until reaching equilibrium at ∼1,690 individuals (∼0.0111 animal/m(2) ) in 2,100. In contrast, removal of adult females (≥4 yrs) would significantly reduce the population size, but would also promote an increase in population growth rate due to density feedback. A maximum annual production of 275 births is expected when 550 adult females are present in the population. Sensitivity analyses showed that removing females, in contrast to controlling their fertility through invasive treatments would contribute the most to changes in population growth rate. Given the density compensation on fertility, stabilizing the population would require removing ∼80% of the current population of adult females. This study highlights the importance of addressing the population-level density effects, as well as sensitivity analyses, to optimize management strategies. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Killer whales (Orcinus orca) produce ultrasonic whistles.

PubMed

Samarra, Filipa I P; Deecke, Volker B; Vinding, Katja; Rasmussen, Marianne H; Swift, René J; Miller, Patrick J O

2010-11-01

This study reports that killer whales, the largest dolphin, produce whistles with the highest fundamental frequencies ever reported in a delphinid. Using wide-band acoustic sampling from both animal-attached (Dtag) and remotely deployed hydrophone arrays, ultrasonic whistles were detected in three Northeast Atlantic populations but not in two Northeast Pacific populations. These results are inconsistent with analyses suggesting a correlation of maximum frequency of whistles with body size in delphinids, indicate substantial intraspecific variation in whistle production in killer whales, and highlight the importance of appropriate acoustic sampling techniques when conducting comparative analyses of sound repertoires.

Growth, size and age at maturity of the agile frog (Rana dalmatina) in an Iberian Peninsula population.

PubMed

Sarasola-Puente, Vanessa; Gosá, Alberto; Oromí, Neus; Madeira, María José; Lizana, Miguel

2011-06-01

The mean age of a population of agile frogs (Rana dalmatina) from the Iberian Peninsula was estimated using mark and recapture and skeletochronology. Life-history parameters, including growth rate, body length, age and size at maturity, sexual dimorphism and longevity, were studied. The regression between age and snout-vent length (SVL) was highly significant in both sexes. Males reached sexual maturity at two years of age, although sometimes they can reach it at only one year of age. The average SVL at maturity was 51.75 mm (standard error (SE)=0.71; n=45). Females reached sexual maturity at two years of age with an average SVL of 62.14 mm (SE=2.20; n=14). A subset of the female population reached sexual maturity at three years of age. Growth was rapid until sexual maturity was reached. There was an overlap of SVL between different age classes. Growth was continuous, fulfilling the conditions of Von Bertalanffy's model. The growth coefficient (K) was 0.840 in males and 0.625 in females. The maximum SVL was greater in females (73.00 mm) than in males (59.50mm). Sexual dimorphism was significantly biased towards females in all age classes. The maximum longevity observed was 6 years in females and 8 years in males. Management strategies for agile frogs should take into account factors such as these life-history characteristics. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Biased phylodynamic inferences from analysing clusters of viral sequences

PubMed Central

Xiang, Fei; Frost, Simon D. W.

2017-01-01

Abstract Phylogenetic methods are being increasingly used to help understand the transmission dynamics of measurably evolving viruses, including HIV. Clusters of highly similar sequences are often observed, which appear to follow a ‘power law’ behaviour, with a small number of very large clusters. These clusters may help to identify subpopulations in an epidemic, and inform where intervention strategies should be implemented. However, clustering of samples does not necessarily imply the presence of a subpopulation with high transmission rates, as groups of closely related viruses can also occur due to non-epidemiological effects such as over-sampling. It is important to ensure that observed phylogenetic clustering reflects true heterogeneity in the transmitting population, and is not being driven by non-epidemiological effects. We qualify the effect of using a falsely identified ‘transmission cluster’ of sequences to estimate phylodynamic parameters including the effective population size and exponential growth rate under several demographic scenarios. Our simulation studies show that taking the maximum size cluster to re-estimate parameters from trees simulated under a randomly mixing, constant population size coalescent process systematically underestimates the overall effective population size. In addition, the transmission cluster wrongly resembles an exponential or logistic growth model 99% of the time. We also illustrate the consequences of false clusters in exponentially growing coalescent and birth-death trees, where again, the growth rate is skewed upwards. This has clear implications for identifying clusters in large viral databases, where a false cluster could result in wasted intervention resources. PMID:28852573

A general unified framework to assess the sampling variance of heritability estimates using pedigree or marker-based relationships.

PubMed

Visscher, Peter M; Goddard, Michael E

2015-01-01

Heritability is a population parameter of importance in evolution, plant and animal breeding, and human medical genetics. It can be estimated using pedigree designs and, more recently, using relationships estimated from markers. We derive the sampling variance of the estimate of heritability for a wide range of experimental designs, assuming that estimation is by maximum likelihood and that the resemblance between relatives is solely due to additive genetic variation. We show that well-known results for balanced designs are special cases of a more general unified framework. For pedigree designs, the sampling variance is inversely proportional to the variance of relationship in the pedigree and it is proportional to 1/N, whereas for population samples it is approximately proportional to 1/N(2), where N is the sample size. Variation in relatedness is a key parameter in the quantification of the sampling variance of heritability. Consequently, the sampling variance is high for populations with large recent effective population size (e.g., humans) because this causes low variation in relationship. However, even using human population samples, low sampling variance is possible with high N. Copyright © 2015 by the Genetics Society of America.

The Discovery of Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms—and Inferences about Human Demographic History

PubMed Central

Wakeley, John; Nielsen, Rasmus; Liu-Cordero, Shau Neen; Ardlie, Kristin

2001-01-01

A method of historical inference that accounts for ascertainment bias is developed and applied to single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data in humans. The data consist of 84 short fragments of the genome that were selected, from three recent SNP surveys, to contain at least two polymorphisms in their respective ascertainment samples and that were then fully resequenced in 47 globally distributed individuals. Ascertainment bias is the deviation, from what would be observed in a random sample, caused either by discovery of polymorphisms in small samples or by locus selection based on levels or patterns of polymorphism. The three SNP surveys from which the present data were derived differ both in their protocols for ascertainment and in the size of the samples used for discovery. We implemented a Monte Carlo maximum-likelihood method to fit a subdivided-population model that includes a possible change in effective size at some time in the past. Incorrectly assuming that ascertainment bias does not exist causes errors in inference, affecting both estimates of migration rates and historical changes in size. Migration rates are overestimated when ascertainment bias is ignored. However, the direction of error in inferences about changes in effective population size (whether the population is inferred to be shrinking or growing) depends on whether either the numbers of SNPs per fragment or the SNP-allele frequencies are analyzed. We use the abbreviation “SDL,” for “SNP-discovered locus,” in recognition of the genomic-discovery context of SNPs. When ascertainment bias is modeled fully, both the number of SNPs per SDL and their allele frequencies support a scenario of growth in effective size in the context of a subdivided population. If subdivision is ignored, however, the hypothesis of constant effective population size cannot be rejected. An important conclusion of this work is that, in demographic or other studies, SNP data are useful only to the extent that their ascertainment can be modeled. PMID:11704929

Population characteristics and assessment of overfishing for an exploited paddlefish population in the lower Tennessee River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scholten, G.D.; Bettoli, P.W.

2005-01-01

Paddlefish Polyodon spathula (n = 576) were collected from Kentucky Lake, Kentucky-Tennessee, with experimental gill nets in 2003-2004 to assess population characteristics and the potential for commercial overfishing. Additional data were collected from 1,039 paddlefish caught by commercial gillnetters in this impoundment. Since the most recent study in 1991, size and age structure have been reduced and annual mortality has tripled. In the 1991 study, 37% of the fish collected were older than the maximum age we observed (age 11), and in 2003 annual mortality for paddlefish age 7 and older was high (A = 68%). Natural mortality is presumably low (<10%) for paddlefish; therefore, exploitation in recent years is high. Estimates of total annual mortality were negatively related to river discharge in the years preceding each estimate. The number of paddlefish harvested since 1999 was also negatively related to river discharge because gill nets cannot be easily deployed when discharge exceeds approximately 850 m3/s. Large females spawn annually because all females longer than 1,034 mm eye-fork length (EFL) were gravid. No mature females were protected by the current 864-mm minimum EFL limit. At a low natural mortality rate, higher size limits when exploitation was high (40-70%) increased simulated flesh yields by 10-20%. Even at low levels of exploitation (21%), spawning potential ratios (SPRs) under the current 864-mm minimum EFL size limit fell below 20%. If the size limit was raised to 1,016 mm EFL, the population could withstand up to 62% exploitation before the SPR falls below 20%. An analysis of annual mortality caps indicated that the best way to increase the average size of harvested fish is to increase the minimum size limit. Recruitment overfishing probably occurs during drought years; however, variation in river discharge has prevented the population from being exploited at unsustainable rates in the past. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

Optimizing the maximum reported cluster size in the spatial scan statistic for ordinal data.

PubMed

Kim, Sehwi; Jung, Inkyung

2017-01-01

The spatial scan statistic is an important tool for spatial cluster detection. There have been numerous studies on scanning window shapes. However, little research has been done on the maximum scanning window size or maximum reported cluster size. Recently, Han et al. proposed to use the Gini coefficient to optimize the maximum reported cluster size. However, the method has been developed and evaluated only for the Poisson model. We adopt the Gini coefficient to be applicable to the spatial scan statistic for ordinal data to determine the optimal maximum reported cluster size. Through a simulation study and application to a real data example, we evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. With some sophisticated modification, the Gini coefficient can be effectively employed for the ordinal model. The Gini coefficient most often picked the optimal maximum reported cluster sizes that were the same as or smaller than the true cluster sizes with very high accuracy. It seems that we can obtain a more refined collection of clusters by using the Gini coefficient. The Gini coefficient developed specifically for the ordinal model can be useful for optimizing the maximum reported cluster size for ordinal data and helpful for properly and informatively discovering cluster patterns.

Optimizing the maximum reported cluster size in the spatial scan statistic for ordinal data

PubMed Central

Kim, Sehwi

2017-01-01

The spatial scan statistic is an important tool for spatial cluster detection. There have been numerous studies on scanning window shapes. However, little research has been done on the maximum scanning window size or maximum reported cluster size. Recently, Han et al. proposed to use the Gini coefficient to optimize the maximum reported cluster size. However, the method has been developed and evaluated only for the Poisson model. We adopt the Gini coefficient to be applicable to the spatial scan statistic for ordinal data to determine the optimal maximum reported cluster size. Through a simulation study and application to a real data example, we evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. With some sophisticated modification, the Gini coefficient can be effectively employed for the ordinal model. The Gini coefficient most often picked the optimal maximum reported cluster sizes that were the same as or smaller than the true cluster sizes with very high accuracy. It seems that we can obtain a more refined collection of clusters by using the Gini coefficient. The Gini coefficient developed specifically for the ordinal model can be useful for optimizing the maximum reported cluster size for ordinal data and helpful for properly and informatively discovering cluster patterns. PMID:28753674

Comparing methods to estimate Reineke’s maximum size-density relationship species boundary line slope

Treesearch

Curtis L. VanderSchaaf; Harold E. Burkhart

2010-01-01

Maximum size-density relationships (MSDR) provide natural resource managers useful information about the relationship between tree density and average tree size. Obtaining a valid estimate of how maximum tree density changes as average tree size changes is necessary to accurately describe these relationships. This paper examines three methods to estimate the slope of...

Understanding stable bi-female grouping in gibbons: feeding competition and reproductive success.

PubMed

Fan, Peng-Fei; Bartlett, Thad Q; Fei, Han-Lan; Ma, Chang-Yong; Zhang, Wen

2015-01-01

Species of the order Primates are highly gregarious with most species living in permanent heterosexual social groups. According to theory in socioecology maximum social group size is limited by rates of intra-group feeding competition and associated increases in travel costs. Unlike other hylobatids, which are predominantly pair living, cao vit gibbons (Nomascus nasutus), and two other species of crested gibbon (Nomascus spp.) living in northern seasonal forest, regularly exhibit larger bi-female groups. To better understand the ability of northern gibbons to live in stable bi-female groups, we examined food distribution, feeding competition and reproductive success over a period of six years in a small cao vit gibbon population at Bangliang, Guangxi, China. In general, we found weak evidences for within-group contest or scramble competition in our two study groups, which we attribute to high spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the distribution of their important food species. Nevertheless, the larger of the two groups studied increased feeding time and group spread during lean periods, factors that may limit cao vit gibbon group size to a maximum of two breeding females. Relative to tropical pair-living gibbons, there is no evidence that cao vit gibbons travel farther or spend more time feeding, but they did consume more leaves and buds and less fruit and figs. Despite their highly folivorous diet, the average inter-birth interval is comparable to tropical gibbon populations, and the survival rate of infants and juveniles in our study groups is high. Cao vit gibbons do not suffer obvious costs in terms of feeding competition and reproductive success by living in bi-female groups, but within-group feeding competition may determine the upper the limit of cao vit gibbon group size to a maximum of two breeding females. These findings contribute to a growing body of evidence that bi-female grouping can be a stable grouping pattern of gibbons in certain habitats and further emphasize the flexibility of gibbon social organization.

Prey life-history and bioenergetic responses across a predation gradient.

PubMed

Rennie, M D; Purchase, C F; Shuter, B J; Collins, N C; Abrams, P A; Morgan, G E

2010-10-01

To evaluate the importance of non-consumptive effects of predators on prey life histories under natural conditions, an index of predator abundance was developed for naturally occurring populations of a common prey fish, the yellow perch Perca flavescens, and compared to life-history variables and rates of prey energy acquisition and allocation as estimated from mass balance models. The predation index was positively related to maximum size and size at maturity in both male and female P. flavescens, but not with life span or reproductive investment. The predation index was positively related to size-adjusted specific growth rates and growth efficiencies but negatively related to model estimates of size-adjusted specific consumption and activity rates in both vulnerable (small) and invulnerable (large) size classes of P. flavescens. These observations suggest a trade-off between growth and activity rates, mediated by reduced activity in response to increasing predator densities. Lower growth rates and growth efficiencies in populations with fewer predators, despite increased consumption suggests either 1) a reduction in prey resources at lower predator densities or 2) an intrinsic cost of rapid prey growth that makes it unfavourable unless offset by a perceived threat of predation. This study provides evidence of trade-offs between growth and activity rates induced by predation risk in natural prey fish populations and illustrates how behavioural modification induced through predation can shape the life histories of prey fish species. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Lesser devil rays Mobula cf. hypostoma from Venezuela are almost twice their previously reported maximum size and may be a new sub-species.

PubMed

Ehemann, N R; González-González, L V; Trites, A W

2017-03-01

Three rays opportunistically obtained near Margarita Island, Venezuela, were identified as lesser devil rays Mobula cf. hypostoma, but their disc widths were between 207 and 230 cm, which is almost double the reported maximum disc width of 120 cm for this species. These morphometric data suggest that lesser devil rays are either larger than previously recognized or that these specimens belong to an unknown sub-species of Mobula in the Caribbean Sea. Better data are needed to describe the distribution, phenotypic variation and population structure of this poorly known species. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Density-dependent regulation of population size in colonial breeders: Allee and buffer effects in the migratory Montagu's harrier.

PubMed

Soutullo, Alvaro; Limiñana, Rubén; Urios, Vicente; Surroca, Martín; A Gill, Jennifer

2006-09-01

Expanding populations offer an opportunity to uncover the processes driving spatial variation in distribution and abundance. Individual settlement decisions will be influenced by the availability and relative quality of patches, and by how these respond to changes in conspecific density. For example, conspecific presence can alter patch suitability through reductions in resource availability or territorial exclusion, leading to buffer effect patterns of disproportionate population expansion into poorer quality areas. However, conspecific presence can also enhance patch suitability through Allee effect processes, such as transmission of information about resources or improved predator detection and deterrence. Here, we explore the factors underlying the settlement pattern of a growing population of Montagu's harriers (Circus pygargus) in Spain. The population increased exponentially between 1981 and 2001, but stabilised between 2001 and 2004. This population increase occurred alongside a remarkable spatial expansion, with novel site use occurring prior to maximum densities in occupied sites being reached. However, no temporal trends in fecundity were observed and, within sites, average fecundity did not decline with increasing density. Across the population, variance in productivity did increase with population size, suggesting a complex pattern of density-dependent costs and benefits. We suggest that both Allee and buffer effects are operating in this system, with the benefits of conspecific presence counteracting density-dependent declines in resource availability or quality.

How much habitat management is needed to meet mallard production objectives?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cowardin, L.M.; Shaffer, T.L.; Kraft, K.M.

1995-01-01

We used results from simulation models to demonstrate the benefit-cost ratios of habitat management to increase the number of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) recruits produced. The models were applied to hypothetical 2-habitat landscapes comprised of managed and unmanaged habitat. Managed habitats were predator barrier fencing and CRP cover; unmanaged habitat was grassland. As the amount of managed cover increased, the production curve rose rapidly and leveled off. If 2 managed habitats are added to a landscape, the cover can compete for available nesting hens, thus negating the benefits of 1 of the covers. After converting benefits and costs to dollars, we determined the point at which maximum net benefit occurs. We present an equation that can be used to determine the maximum net benefit of a management treatment given the size of the breeding population and the values of costs and benefits. Our examples demonstrate that, on local areas, it is inefficient to spend money for habitat management once maximum net benefit has been attained. If desired production can not be attained efficiently on an area, the manager can invest effort on alternative areas with greater management potential. If recruitment is inadequate to maintain a stable population, managers should manage to increase recruitment before attempting to attract additional breeding pairs. If recruitment more than maintains the breeding population, managers should attempt to attract additional breeding pairs to the area.

Rapid and repeated origin of insular gigantism and dwarfism in Australian tiger snakes.

PubMed

Keogh, J Scott; Scott, Ian A W; Hayes, Christine

2005-01-01

It is a well-known phenomenon that islands can support populations of gigantic or dwarf forms of mainland conspecifics, but the variety of explanatory hypotheses for this phenomenon have been difficult to disentangle. The highly venomous Australian tiger snakes (genus Notechis) represent a well-known and extreme example of insular body size variation. They are of special interest because there are multiple populations of dwarfs and giants and the age of the islands and thus the age of the tiger snake populations are known from detailed sea level studies. Most are 5000-7000 years old and all are less than 10,000 years old. Here we discriminate between two competing hypotheses with a molecular phylogeography dataset comprising approximately 4800 bp of mtDNA and demonstrate that populations of island dwarfs and giants have evolved five times independently. In each case the closest relatives of the giant or dwarf populations are mainland tiger snakes, and in four of the five cases, the closest relatives are also the most geographically proximate mainland tiger snakes. Moreover, these body size shifts have evolved extremely rapidly and this is reflected in the genetic divergence between island body size variants and mainland snakes. Within south eastern Australia, where populations of island giants, populations of island dwarfs, and mainland tiger snakes all occur, the maximum genetic divergence is only 0.38%. Dwarf tiger snakes are restricted to prey items that are much smaller than the prey items of mainland tiger snakes and giant tiger snakes are restricted to seasonally available prey items that are up three times larger than the prey items of mainland tiger snakes. We support the hypotheses that these body size shifts are due to strong selection imposed by the size of available prey items, rather than shared evolutionary history, and our results are consistent with the notion that adaptive plasticity also has played an important role in body size shifts. We suggest that plasticity displayed early on in the occupation of these new islands provided the flexibility necessary as the island's available prey items became more depauperate, but once the size range of available prey items was reduced, strong natural selection followed by genetic assimilation worked to optimize snake body size. The rate of body size divergence in haldanes is similar for dwarfs (h(g) = 0.0010) and giants (h(g) = 0.0020-0.0025) and is in line with other studies of rapid evolution. Our data provide strong evidence for rapid and repeated morphological divergence in the wild due to similar selective pressures acting in different directions.

Selective toxin effects on faster and slower growing individuals in the formation of hormesis at the population level - A case study with Lactuca sativa and PCIB.

PubMed

Belz, Regina G; Sinkkonen, Aki

2016-10-01

Natural plant populations have large phenotypic plasticity that enhances acclimation to local stress factors such as toxin exposures. While consequences of high toxin exposures are well addressed, effects of low-dose toxin exposures on plant populations are seldom investigated. In particular, the importance of 'selective low-dose toxicity' and hormesis, i.e. stimulatory effects, has not been studied simultaneously. Since selective toxicity can change the size distribution of populations, we assumed that hormesis alters the size distribution at the population level, and investigated whether and how these two low-dose phenomena coexist. The study was conducted with Lactuca sativa L. exposed to the auxin-inhibitor 2-(p-chlorophenoxy)-2-methylpropionic acid (PCIB) in vitro. In two separate experiments, L. sativa was exposed to 12 PCIB doses in 24 replicates (50 plants/replicate). Shoot/root growth responses at the population level were compared to the fast-growing (≥90% percentile) and the slow-growing subpopulations (≤10% percentile) by Mann-Whitney U testing and dose-response modelling. In the formation of pronounced PCIB hormesis at the population level, low-dose effects proved selective, but widely stimulatory which seems to counteract low-dose selective toxicity. The selectivity of hormesis was dose- and growth rate-dependent. Stimulation occurred at lower concentrations and stimulation percentage was higher among slow-growing individuals, but partly or entirely masked at the population level by moderate or negligible stimulation among the faster growing individuals. We conclude that the hormetic effect up to the maximum stimulation may be primarily facilitated by an increase in size of the most slow-growing individuals, while thereafter it seems that mainly the fast-growing individuals contributed to the observed hormesis at the population level. As size distribution within a population is related to survival, our study hints that selective effects on slow- and fast-growing individuals may change population dynamics, providing that similar effects can be repeated under field conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Response to selection while maximizing genetic variance in small populations.

PubMed

Cervantes, Isabel; Gutiérrez, Juan Pablo; Meuwissen, Theo H E

2016-09-20

Rare breeds represent a valuable resource for future market demands. These populations are usually well-adapted, but their low census compromises the genetic diversity and future of these breeds. Since improvement of a breed for commercial traits may also confer higher probabilities of survival for the breed, it is important to achieve good responses to artificial selection. Therefore, efficient genetic management of these populations is essential to ensure that they respond adequately to genetic selection in possible future artificial selection scenarios. Scenarios that maximize the maximum genetic variance in a unique population could be a valuable option. The aim of this work was to study the effect of the maximization of genetic variance to increase selection response and improve the capacity of a population to adapt to a new environment/production system. We simulated a random scenario (A), a full-sib scenario (B), a scenario applying the maximum variance total (MVT) method (C), a MVT scenario with a restriction on increases in average inbreeding (D), a MVT scenario with a restriction on average individual increases in inbreeding (E), and a minimum coancestry scenario (F). Twenty replicates of each scenario were simulated for 100 generations, followed by 10 generations of selection. Effective population size was used to monitor the outcomes of these scenarios. Although the best response to selection was achieved in scenarios B and C, they were discarded because they are unpractical. Scenario A was also discarded because of its low response to selection. Scenario D yielded less response to selection and a smaller effective population size than scenario E, for which response to selection was higher during early generations because of the moderately structured population. In scenario F, response to selection was slightly higher than in Scenario E in the last generations. Application of MVT with a restriction on individual increases in inbreeding resulted in the largest response to selection during early generations, but if inbreeding depression is a concern, a minimum coancestry scenario is then a valuable alternative, in particular for a long-term response to selection.

Bivariate mass-size relation as a function of morphology as determined by Galaxy Zoo 2 crowdsourced visual classifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Melanie; Scarlata, Claudia; Fortson, Lucy; Willett, Kyle; Galloway, Melanie

2016-01-01

It is well known that the mass-size distribution evolves as a function of cosmic time and that this evolution is different between passive and star-forming galaxy populations. However, the devil is in the details and the precise evolution is still a matter of debate since this requires careful comparison between similar galaxy populations over cosmic time while simultaneously taking into account changes in image resolution, rest-frame wavelength, and surface brightness dimming in addition to properly selecting representative morphological samples.Here we present the first step in an ambitious undertaking to calculate the bivariate mass-size distribution as a function of time and morphology. We begin with a large sample (~3 x 105) of SDSS galaxies at z ~ 0.1. Morphologies for this sample have been determined by Galaxy Zoo crowdsourced visual classifications and we split the sample not only by disk- and bulge-dominated galaxies but also in finer morphology bins such as bulge strength. Bivariate distribution functions are the only way to properly account for biases and selection effects. In particular, we quantify the mass-size distribution with a version of the parametric Maximum Likelihood estimator which has been modified to account for measurement errors as well as upper limits on galaxy sizes.

Ancestral Relationships Using Metafounders: Finite Ancestral Populations and Across Population Relationships

PubMed Central

Legarra, Andres; Christensen, Ole F.; Vitezica, Zulma G.; Aguilar, Ignacio; Misztal, Ignacy

2015-01-01

Recent use of genomic (marker-based) relationships shows that relationships exist within and across base population (breeds or lines). However, current treatment of pedigree relationships is unable to consider relationships within or across base populations, although such relationships must exist due to finite size of the ancestral population and connections between populations. This complicates the conciliation of both approaches and, in particular, combining pedigree with genomic relationships. We present a coherent theoretical framework to consider base population in pedigree relationships. We suggest a conceptual framework that considers each ancestral population as a finite-sized pool of gametes. This generates across-individual relationships and contrasts with the classical view which each population is considered as an infinite, unrelated pool. Several ancestral populations may be connected and therefore related. Each ancestral population can be represented as a “metafounder,” a pseudo-individual included as founder of the pedigree and similar to an “unknown parent group.” Metafounders have self- and across relationships according to a set of parameters, which measure ancestral relationships, i.e., homozygozities within populations and relationships across populations. These parameters can be estimated from existing pedigree and marker genotypes using maximum likelihood or a method based on summary statistics, for arbitrarily complex pedigrees. Equivalences of genetic variance and variance components between the classical and this new parameterization are shown. Segregation variance on crosses of populations is modeled. Efficient algorithms for computation of relationship matrices, their inverses, and inbreeding coefficients are presented. Use of metafounders leads to compatibility of genomic and pedigree relationship matrices and to simple computing algorithms. Examples and code are given. PMID:25873631

The Effect of Latitudinal Variation on Shrimp Reproductive Strategies.

PubMed

van de Kerk, Madelon; Jones Littles, Chanda; Saucedo, Omar; Lorenzen, Kai

2016-01-01

Reproductive strategies comprise the timing and frequency of reproductive events and the number of offspring per reproductive event, depending on factors such as climate conditions. Therefore, species that exhibit plasticity in the allocation of reproductive effort can alter their behavior in response to climate change. Studying how the reproductive strategy of species varies along the latitudinal gradient can help us understand and predict how they will respond to climate change. We investigated the effects of the temporal allocation of reproductive effort on the population size of brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus) along a latitudinal gradient. Multiple shrimp species exhibit variation in their reproductive strategies, and given the economic importance of brown shrimp to the commercial fishing sector of the Unites States, changes in the timing of their reproduction could have significant economic and social consequences. We used a stage-based, density-dependent matrix population model tailored to the life history of brown shrimp. Shrimp growth rates and environmental carrying capacity were varied based on the seasonal climate conditions at different latitudes, and we estimated the population size at equilibrium. The length of the growing season increased with decreasing latitude and the reproductive strategy leading to the highest population size changed from one annual birth pulse with high reproductive output to continuous low-output reproduction. Hence, our model confirms the classical paradigm of continuous reproduction at low latitudes, with increased seasonality of the breeding period towards the poles. Our results also demonstrate the potential for variation in climate to affect the optimal reproductive strategy for achieving maximum population sizes. Certainly, understanding these dynamics may inform more comprehensive management strategies for commercially important species like brown shrimp.

Variation of thermal parameters in two different color morphs of a diurnal poison toad, Melanophryniscus rubriventris (Anura: Bufonidae).

PubMed

Sanabria, Eduardo A; Vaira, Marcos; Quiroga, Lorena B; Akmentins, Mauricio S; Pereyra, Laura C

2014-04-01

We study the variation in thermal parameters in two contrasting populations Yungas Redbelly Toads (Melanophryniscus rubriventris) with different discrete color phenotypes comparing field body temperatures, critical thermal maximum and heating rates. We found significant differences in field body temperatures of the different morphs. Temperatures were higher in toads with a high extent of dorsal melanization. No variation was registered in operative temperatures between the study locations at the moment of capture and processing. Critical thermal maximum of toads was positively related with the extent of dorsal melanization. Furthermore, we founded significant differences in heating rates between morphs, where individuals with a high extent of dorsal melanization showed greater heating rates than toads with lower dorsal melanization. The color pattern-thermal parameter relationship observed may influence the activity patterns and body size of individuals. Body temperature is a modulator of physiological and behavioral functions in amphibians, influencing daily and seasonal activity, locomotor performance, digestion rate and growth rate. It is possible that some growth constraints may arise due to the relationship of color pattern-metabolism allowing different morphs to attain similar sizes at different locations instead of body-size clines. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

High genetic diversity in a small population: the case of Chilean blue whales

PubMed Central

Torres-Florez, Juan P; Hucke-Gaete, Rodrigo; Rosenbaum, Howard; Figueroa, Christian C

2014-01-01

It is generally assumed that species with low population sizes have lower genetic diversities than larger populations and vice versa. However, this would not be the case for long-lived species with long generation times, and which populations have declined due to anthropogenic effects, such as the blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus). This species was intensively decimated globally to near extinction during the 20th century. Along the Chilean coast, it is estimated that at least 4288 blue whales were hunted from an apparently pre-exploitation population size (k) of a maximum of 6200 individuals (Southeastern Pacific). Thus, here, we describe the mtDNA (control region) and nDNA (microsatellites) diversities of the Chilean blue whale aggregation site in order to verify the expectation of low genetic diversity in small populations. We then compare our findings with other blue whale aggregations in the Southern Hemisphere. Interestingly, although the estimated population size is small compared with the pre-whaling era, there is still considerable genetic diversity, even after the population crash, both in mitochondrial (N = 46) and nuclear (N = 52) markers (Hd = 0.890 and Ho = 0.692, respectively). Our results suggest that this diversity could be a consequence of the long generation times and the relatively short period of time elapsed since the end of whaling, which has been observed in other heavily-exploited whale populations. The genetic variability of blue whales on their southern Chile feeding grounds was similar to that found in other Southern Hemisphere blue whale feeding grounds. Our phylogenetic analysis of mtDNA haplotypes does not show extensive differentiation of populations among Southern Hemisphere blue whale feeding grounds. The present study suggests that although levels of genetic diversity are frequently used as estimators of population health, these parameters depend on the biology of the species and should be taken into account in a monitoring framework study to obtain a more complete picture of the conservation status of a population. PMID:24834336

Intrapopulational body size variation and cranial capacity variation in Middle Pleistocene humans: the Sima de los Huesos sample (Sierra de Atapuerca, Spain).

PubMed

Lorenzo, C; Carretero, J M; Arsuaga, J L; Gracia, A; Martínez, I

1998-05-01

A sexual dimorphism more marked than in living humans has been claimed for European Middle Pleistocene humans, Neandertals and prehistoric modern humans. In this paper, body size and cranial capacity variation are studied in the Sima de los Huesos Middle Pleistocene sample. This is the largest sample of non-modern humans found to date from one single site, and with all skeletal elements represented. Since the techniques available to estimate the degree of sexual dimorphism in small palaeontological samples are all unsatisfactory, we have used the bootstraping method to asses the magnitude of the variation in the Sima de los Huesos sample compared to modern human intrapopulational variation. We analyze size variation without attempting to sex the specimens a priori. Anatomical regions investigated are scapular glenoid fossa; acetabulum; humeral proximal and distal epiphyses; ulnar proximal epiphysis; radial neck; proximal femur; humeral, femoral, ulnar and tibial shaft; lumbosacral joint; patella; calcaneum; and talar trochlea. In the Sima de los Huesos sample only the humeral midshaft perimeter shows an unusual high variation (only when it is expressed by the maximum ratio, not by the coefficient of variation). In spite of that the cranial capacity range at Sima de los Huesos almost spans the rest of the European and African Middle Pleistocene range. The maximum ratio is in the central part of the distribution of modern human samples. Thus, the hypothesis of a greater sexual dimorphism in Middle Pleistocene populations than in modern populations is not supported by either cranial or postcranial evidence from Sima de los Huesos.

Distribution and life strategies of two bacterial populations in a eutrophic lake

PubMed

Weinbauer; Hofle

1998-10-01

Monoclonal antibodies and epifluorescence microscopy were used to determine the depth distribution of two indigenous bacterial populations in the stratified Lake Plusssee and characterize their life strategies. Populations of Comamonas acidovorans PX54 showed a depth distribution with maximum abundances in the oxic epilimnion, whereas Aeromonas hydrophila PU7718 showed a depth distribution with maximum abundances in the anoxic thermocline layer (metalimnion), i. e., in the water layer with the highest microbial activity. Resistance of PX54 to protist grazing and high metabolic versatility and growth rate of PU7718 were the most important life strategy traits for explaining the depth distribution of the two bacterial populations. Maximum abundance of PX54 was 16,000 cells per ml, and maximum abundance of PU7718 was 20,000 cells per ml. Determination of bacterial productivity in dilution cultures with different-size fractions of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from lake water indicates that low-molecular-weight (LMW) DOM is less bioreactive than total DOM (TDOM). The abundance and growth rate of PU7718 were highest in the TDOM fractions, whereas those of PX54 were highest in the LMW DOM fraction, demonstrating that PX54 can grow well on the less bioreactive DOM fraction. We estimated that 13 to 24% of the entire bacterial community and 14% of PU7718 were removed by viral lysis, whereas no significant effect of viral lysis on PX54 could be detected. Growth rates of PX54 (0.11 to 0.13 h-1) were higher than those of the entire bacterial community (0.04 to 0.08 h-1) but lower than those of PU7718 (0.26 to 0.31 h-1). In undiluted cultures, the growth rates were significantly lower, pointing to density effects such as resource limitation or antibiosis, and the effects were stronger for PU7718 and the entire bacterial community than for PX54. Life strategy characterizations based on data from literature and this study revealed that the fast-growing and metabolically versatile A. hydrophila PU7718 is an r-strategist or opportunistic population in Lake Plusssee, whereas the grazing-resistant C. acidovorans PX54 is rather a K-strategist or equilibrium population.

Population expansions dominate demographic histories of endemic and widespread Pacific reef fishes.

PubMed

Delrieu-Trottin, Erwan; Mona, Stefano; Maynard, Jeffrey; Neglia, Valentina; Veuille, Michel; Planes, Serge

2017-01-16

Despite the unique nature of endemic species, their origin and population history remain poorly studied. We investigated the population history of 28 coral reef fish species, close related, from the Gambier and Marquesas Islands, from five families, with range size varying from widespread to small-range endemic. We analyzed both mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data using neutrality test and Bayesian analysis (EBSP and ABC). We found evidence for demographic expansions for most species (24 of 28), irrespective of range size, reproduction strategy or archipelago. The timing of the expansions varied greatly among species, from 8,000 to 2,000,000 years ago. The typical hypothesis for reef fish that links population expansions to the Last Glacial Maximum fit for 14 of the 24 demographic expansions. We propose two evolutionary processes that could lead to expansions older than the LGM: (a) we are retrieving the signature of an old colonization process for widespread, large-range endemic and paleoendemic species or (b) speciation; the expansion reflects the birth of the species for neoendemic species. We show for the first time that the demographic histories of endemic and widespread reef fish are not distinctly different and suggest that a number of processes drive endemism.

Empirical links between natural mortality and recovery in marine fishes.

PubMed

Hutchings, Jeffrey A; Kuparinen, Anna

2017-06-14

Probability of species recovery is thought to be correlated with specific aspects of organismal life history, such as age at maturity and longevity, and how these affect rates of natural mortality ( M ) and maximum per capita population growth ( r max ). Despite strong theoretical underpinnings, these correlates have been based on predicted rather than realized population trajectories following threat mitigation. Here, we examine the level of empirical support for postulated links between a suite of life-history traits (related to maturity, age, size and growth) and recovery in marine fishes. Following threat mitigation (medium time since cessation of overfishing = 20 years), 71% of 55 temperate populations had fully recovered, the remainder exhibiting, on average, negligible change (impaired recovery). Singly, life-history traits did not influence recovery status. In combination, however, those that jointly reflect length-based mortality at maturity, M α , revealed that recovered populations have higher M α , which we hypothesize to reflect local adaptations associated with greater r max But, within populations, the smaller sizes at maturity generated by overfishing are predicted to increase M α , slowing recovery and increasing its uncertainty. We conclude that recovery potential is greater for populations adapted to high M but that temporal increases in M concomitant with smaller size at maturity will have the opposite effect. The recovery metric documented here ( M α ) has a sound theoretical basis, is significantly correlated with direct estimates of M that directly reflect r max , is not reliant on data-intensive time series, can be readily estimated, and offers an empirically defensible correlate of recovery, given its clear links to the positive and impaired responses to threat mitigation that have been observed in fish populations over the past three decades. © 2017 The Author(s).

The population dynamics of the parasitic copepode Lernaeocera lusci (Bassett-Smith, 1896) on its definitive host

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Damme, P. A.; Hamerlynck, O.; Ollevier, F.

1996-06-01

The mesoparasitic copepod Lernaeocera lusci (Bassett-Smith, 1896) was recovered from first-year bib ( Trisopterus luscus L.) in the Voordelta (Southern Bight of the North Sea) from May until December 1989. Analysis of the seasonal abundance and of the population structure showed that transmission of infective stages to bib mainly occurred from June to September. From September to December the overall prevalence fluctuated around 70%. Maximum parasite population size (47/104m2) and the highest total egg number were recorded in September and October, respectively. It was found that total parasite mortality was significantly influenced by mortality of hosts carrying parasites. Natural mortality probably contributed a small percentage to total parasite mortality. Calculation of the temporal mean-variance regression equation revealed that the parasites were aggregated within the definitive host population.

Functional traits help predict post-disturbance demography of tropical trees.

PubMed

Flores, Olivier; Hérault, Bruno; Delcamp, Matthieu; Garnier, Éric; Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie

2014-01-01

How tropical tree species respond to disturbance is a central issue of forest ecology, conservation and resource management. We define a hierarchical model to investigate how functional traits measured in control plots relate to the population change rate and to demographic rates for recruitment and mortality after disturbance by logging operations. Population change and demographic rates were quantified on a 12-year period after disturbance and related to seven functional traits measured in control plots. The model was calibrated using a Bayesian Network approach on 53 species surveyed in permanent forest plots (37.5 ha) at Paracou in French Guiana. The network analysis allowed us to highlight both direct and indirect relationships among predictive variables. Overall, 89% of interspecific variability in the population change rate after disturbance were explained by the two demographic rates, the recruitment rate being the most explicative variable. Three direct drivers explained 45% of the variability in recruitment rates, including leaf phosphorus concentration, with a positive effect, and seed size and wood density with negative effects. Mortality rates were explained by interspecific variability in maximum diameter only (25%). Wood density, leaf nitrogen concentration, maximum diameter and seed size were not explained by variables in the analysis and thus appear as independent drivers of post-disturbance demography. Relationships between functional traits and demographic parameters were consistent with results found in undisturbed forests. Functional traits measured in control conditions can thus help predict the fate of tropical tree species after disturbance. Indirect relationships also suggest how different processes interact to mediate species demographic response.

Population characteristics of a recovering US Virgin Islands red hind spawning aggregation following protection

PubMed Central

Nemeth, Richard S.

2006-01-01

Many species of groupers form spawning aggregations, dramatic events where 100s to 1000s of individuals gather annually at specific locations for reproduction. Spawning aggregations are often targeted by local fishermen, making them extremely vulnerable to over fishing. The Red Hind Bank Marine Conservation District located in St. Thomas, United States Virgin Islands, was closed seasonally in 1990 and closed permanently in 1999 to protect an important red hind Epinephelus guttatus spawning site. This study provides some of the first information on the population response of a spawning aggregation located within a marine protected area. Tag-and-release fishing and fish transects were used to evaluate population characteristics and habitat utilization patterns of a red hind spawning aggregation between 1999 and 2004. Compared with studies conducted before the permanent closure, the average size of red hind increased mostly during the seasonal closure period (10 cm over 12 yr), but the maximum total length of male red hind increased by nearly 7 cm following permanent closure. Average density and biomass of spawning red hind increased by over 60% following permanent closure whereas maximum spawning density more than doubled. Information from tag returns indicated that red hind departed the protected area following spawning and migrated 6 to 33 km to a ca. 500 km2 area. Protection of the spawning aggregation site may have also contributed to an overall increase in the size of red hind caught in the commercial fishery, thus increasing the value of the grouper fishery for local fishermen. PMID:16612415

39 CFR 3010.28 - Maximum size of unused rate adjustment authority rate adjustments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Maximum size of unused rate adjustment authority rate adjustments. 3010.28 Section 3010.28 Postal Service POSTAL REGULATORY COMMISSION PERSONNEL REGULATION OF RATES FOR MARKET DOMINANT PRODUCTS Rules for Applying the Price Cap § 3010.28 Maximum size of...

A critical assessment of estimating census population size from genetic population size (or vice versa) in three fishes.

PubMed

Yates, Matthew Carl; Bernos, Thais A; Fraser, Dylan J

2017-10-01

Technological and methodological advances have facilitated the use of genetic data to infer census population size (N c ) in natural populations, particularly where traditional mark-and-recapture is challenging. The effective number of breeders (N b ) describes how many adults effectively contribute to a cohort and is often correlated with N c . Predicting N c from N b or vice versa in species with overlapping generations has important implications for conservation by permitting (i) estimation of the more difficult to quantify variable and (ii) inferences of N b /N c relationships in related species lacking data. We quantitatively synthesized N b /N c relationships in three salmonid fishes where sufficient data have recently accumulated. Mixed-effects models were analysed in which each variable was included as a dependent variable or predictor term (N b from N c and vice versa). Species-dependent N b /N c slope estimates were significantly positive in two of three species. Variation in species slopes was likely due to varying life histories and reinforce caution when inferring N b /N c from taxonomically related species. Models provided maximum probable estimates for N b and N c for two species. However, study, population and year effects explained substantial amounts of variation (39%-57%). Consequently, prediction intervals were wide and included or were close to zero for all population sizes and species; model predictive utility was limited. Cost-benefit trade-offs when estimating N b and/or N c were also discussed using a real-world system example. Our findings based on salmonids suggest that no short cuts currently exist when estimating population size and researchers should focus on quantifying the variable of interest or be aware of caveats when inferring the desired variable because of cost or logistics. We caution that the salmonid species examined share life-history traits that may obscure relationships between N b and N c . Sufficient data on other taxa were unavailable; additional research examining N b /N c relationships in species with potentially relevant life-history trait differences (e.g., differing survival curves) is needed.

Spatiotemporal analysis and mapping of oral cancer risk in changhua county (taiwan): an application of generalized bayesian maximum entropy method.

PubMed

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chiang, Chi-Ting; Lin, Shu-De; Chang, Tsun-Kuo

2010-02-01

Incidence rate of oral cancer in Changhua County is the highest among the 23 counties of Taiwan during 2001. However, in health data analysis, crude or adjusted incidence rates of a rare event (e.g., cancer) for small populations often exhibit high variances and are, thus, less reliable. We proposed a generalized Bayesian Maximum Entropy (GBME) analysis of spatiotemporal disease mapping under conditions of considerable data uncertainty. GBME was used to study the oral cancer population incidence in Changhua County (Taiwan). Methodologically, GBME is based on an epistematics principles framework and generates spatiotemporal estimates of oral cancer incidence rates. In a way, it accounts for the multi-sourced uncertainty of rates, including small population effects, and the composite space-time dependence of rare events in terms of an extended Poisson-based semivariogram. The results showed that GBME analysis alleviates the noises of oral cancer data from population size effect. Comparing to the raw incidence data, the maps of GBME-estimated results can identify high risk oral cancer regions in Changhua County, where the prevalence of betel quid chewing and cigarette smoking is relatively higher than the rest of the areas. GBME method is a valuable tool for spatiotemporal disease mapping under conditions of uncertainty. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A reduced number of mtSNPs saturates mitochondrial DNA haplotype diversity of worldwide population groups.

PubMed

Salas, Antonio; Amigo, Jorge

2010-05-03

The high levels of variation characterising the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) molecule are due ultimately to its high average mutation rate; moreover, mtDNA variation is deeply structured in different populations and ethnic groups. There is growing interest in selecting a reduced number of mtDNA single nucleotide polymorphisms (mtSNPs) that account for the maximum level of discrimination power in a given population. Applications of the selected mtSNP panel range from anthropologic and medical studies to forensic genetic casework. This study proposes a new simulation-based method that explores the ability of different mtSNP panels to yield the maximum levels of discrimination power. The method explores subsets of mtSNPs of different sizes randomly chosen from a preselected panel of mtSNPs based on frequency. More than 2,000 complete genomes representing three main continental human population groups (Africa, Europe, and Asia) and two admixed populations ("African-Americans" and "Hispanics") were collected from GenBank and the literature, and were used as training sets. Haplotype diversity was measured for each combination of mtSNP and compared with existing mtSNP panels available in the literature. The data indicates that only a reduced number of mtSNPs ranging from six to 22 are needed to account for 95% of the maximum haplotype diversity of a given population sample. However, only a small proportion of the best mtSNPs are shared between populations, indicating that there is not a perfect set of "universal" mtSNPs suitable for all population contexts. The discrimination power provided by these mtSNPs is much higher than the power of the mtSNP panels proposed in the literature to date. Some mtSNP combinations also yield high diversity values in admixed populations. The proposed computational approach for exploring combinations of mtSNPs that optimise the discrimination power of a given set of mtSNPs is more efficient than previous empirical approaches. In contrast to precedent findings, the results seem to indicate that only few mtSNPs are needed to reach high levels of discrimination power in a population, independently of its ancestral background.

A Reduced Number of mtSNPs Saturates Mitochondrial DNA Haplotype Diversity of Worldwide Population Groups

PubMed Central

Salas, Antonio; Amigo, Jorge

2010-01-01

Background The high levels of variation characterising the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) molecule are due ultimately to its high average mutation rate; moreover, mtDNA variation is deeply structured in different populations and ethnic groups. There is growing interest in selecting a reduced number of mtDNA single nucleotide polymorphisms (mtSNPs) that account for the maximum level of discrimination power in a given population. Applications of the selected mtSNP panel range from anthropologic and medical studies to forensic genetic casework. Methodology/Principal Findings This study proposes a new simulation-based method that explores the ability of different mtSNP panels to yield the maximum levels of discrimination power. The method explores subsets of mtSNPs of different sizes randomly chosen from a preselected panel of mtSNPs based on frequency. More than 2,000 complete genomes representing three main continental human population groups (Africa, Europe, and Asia) and two admixed populations (“African-Americans” and “Hispanics”) were collected from GenBank and the literature, and were used as training sets. Haplotype diversity was measured for each combination of mtSNP and compared with existing mtSNP panels available in the literature. The data indicates that only a reduced number of mtSNPs ranging from six to 22 are needed to account for 95% of the maximum haplotype diversity of a given population sample. However, only a small proportion of the best mtSNPs are shared between populations, indicating that there is not a perfect set of “universal” mtSNPs suitable for all population contexts. The discrimination power provided by these mtSNPs is much higher than the power of the mtSNP panels proposed in the literature to date. Some mtSNP combinations also yield high diversity values in admixed populations. Conclusions/Significance The proposed computational approach for exploring combinations of mtSNPs that optimise the discrimination power of a given set of mtSNPs is more efficient than previous empirical approaches. In contrast to precedent findings, the results seem to indicate that only few mtSNPs are needed to reach high levels of discrimination power in a population, independently of its ancestral background. PMID:20454657

Selection of the Maximum Spatial Cluster Size of the Spatial Scan Statistic by Using the Maximum Clustering Set-Proportion Statistic.

PubMed

Ma, Yue; Yin, Fei; Zhang, Tao; Zhou, Xiaohua Andrew; Li, Xiaosong

2016-01-01

Spatial scan statistics are widely used in various fields. The performance of these statistics is influenced by parameters, such as maximum spatial cluster size, and can be improved by parameter selection using performance measures. Current performance measures are based on the presence of clusters and are thus inapplicable to data sets without known clusters. In this work, we propose a novel overall performance measure called maximum clustering set-proportion (MCS-P), which is based on the likelihood of the union of detected clusters and the applied dataset. MCS-P was compared with existing performance measures in a simulation study to select the maximum spatial cluster size. Results of other performance measures, such as sensitivity and misclassification, suggest that the spatial scan statistic achieves accurate results in most scenarios with the maximum spatial cluster sizes selected using MCS-P. Given that previously known clusters are not required in the proposed strategy, selection of the optimal maximum cluster size with MCS-P can improve the performance of the scan statistic in applications without identified clusters.

Selection of the Maximum Spatial Cluster Size of the Spatial Scan Statistic by Using the Maximum Clustering Set-Proportion Statistic

PubMed Central

Ma, Yue; Yin, Fei; Zhang, Tao; Zhou, Xiaohua Andrew; Li, Xiaosong

2016-01-01

Spatial scan statistics are widely used in various fields. The performance of these statistics is influenced by parameters, such as maximum spatial cluster size, and can be improved by parameter selection using performance measures. Current performance measures are based on the presence of clusters and are thus inapplicable to data sets without known clusters. In this work, we propose a novel overall performance measure called maximum clustering set–proportion (MCS-P), which is based on the likelihood of the union of detected clusters and the applied dataset. MCS-P was compared with existing performance measures in a simulation study to select the maximum spatial cluster size. Results of other performance measures, such as sensitivity and misclassification, suggest that the spatial scan statistic achieves accurate results in most scenarios with the maximum spatial cluster sizes selected using MCS-P. Given that previously known clusters are not required in the proposed strategy, selection of the optimal maximum cluster size with MCS-P can improve the performance of the scan statistic in applications without identified clusters. PMID:26820646

Reduction of Growth Rate as the Major Process in the Miniaturization of the Sand Dollar Sinaechinocyamus mai.

PubMed

Chen, C P; Chao, C M

1997-08-01

Sinaechinocyamus mai is an extremely small sand dollar, the maximum size being 10.9 mm. It has been suggested that Sinaechinocyamus is a miniaturized progenetic sand dollar that closely resembles the juveniles of Scaphechinus. In this study, we investigated the mechanisms responsible for the miniaturization. Our analysis of population dynamics, maturity, and annual reproductive cycles suggests that the growth rates of S. mai are about 19% the growth rates of Scaphechinus mirabilis, which reaches a maximum size of 88 mm. The developmental stages of oral and aboral surfaces were defined on the basis of the number of discontinuous interambulacral plates and the number of tube-foot porepairs, pairs, respectively. The patterns of the oral and aboral surfaces of the two species were compared, both at original size and after the Scaphechinus mirabilis pattern had been reduced to a size proportional to that of S. mai (i.e., to 19% original). On the oral surface, the patterns were different at the original sizes, but similar when the proportional sizes were compared; this indicates that the development of the oral plates is age-dependent in S. mai. On the aboral surface, the patterns were similar at the original sizes, but different in the proportional comparison, indicating that the development of the aboral plates is size-dependent in S. mai. S. mai becomes sexually mature at the age of 2 years, and Scaphechinus mirabilis matures probably at about the same age. Our data suggest that the reduction of growth rate (neoteny) is a more important mechanism of miniaturization in S. mai than is precocious cessation (progenesis).

Genetic signature of Last Glacial Maximum regional refugia in a circum-Antarctic sea spider

PubMed Central

Soler-Membrives, Anna; Linse, Katrin; Miller, Karen J.

2017-01-01

The evolutionary history of Antarctic organisms is becoming increasingly important to understand and manage population trajectories under rapid environmental change. The Antarctic sea spider Nymphon australe, with an apparently large population size compared with other sea spider species, is an ideal target to look for molecular signatures of past climatic events. We analysed mitochondrial DNA of specimens collected from the Antarctic continent and two Antarctic islands (AI) to infer past population processes and understand current genetic structure. Demographic history analyses suggest populations survived in refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum. The high genetic diversity found in the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctic (EA) seems related to multiple demographic contraction–expansion events associated with deep-sea refugia, while the low genetic diversity in the Weddell Sea points to a more recent expansion from a shelf refugium. We suggest the genetic structure of N. australe from AI reflects recent colonization from the continent. At a local level, EA populations reveal generally low genetic differentiation, geographically and bathymetrically, suggesting limited restrictions to dispersal. Results highlight regional differences in demographic histories and how these relate to the variation in intensity of glaciation–deglaciation events around Antarctica, critical for the study of local evolutionary processes. These are valuable data for understanding the remarkable success of Antarctic pycnogonids, and how environmental changes have shaped the evolution and diversification of Southern Ocean benthic biodiversity. PMID:29134072

Genetic signature of Last Glacial Maximum regional refugia in a circum-Antarctic sea spider

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soler-Membrives, Anna; Linse, Katrin; Miller, Karen J.; Arango, Claudia P.

2017-10-01

The evolutionary history of Antarctic organisms is becoming increasingly important to understand and manage population trajectories under rapid environmental change. The Antarctic sea spider Nymphon australe, with an apparently large population size compared with other sea spider species, is an ideal target to look for molecular signatures of past climatic events. We analysed mitochondrial DNA of specimens collected from the Antarctic continent and two Antarctic islands (AI) to infer past population processes and understand current genetic structure. Demographic history analyses suggest populations survived in refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum. The high genetic diversity found in the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctic (EA) seems related to multiple demographic contraction-expansion events associated with deep-sea refugia, while the low genetic diversity in the Weddell Sea points to a more recent expansion from a shelf refugium. We suggest the genetic structure of N. australe from AI reflects recent colonization from the continent. At a local level, EA populations reveal generally low genetic differentiation, geographically and bathymetrically, suggesting limited restrictions to dispersal. Results highlight regional differences in demographic histories and how these relate to the variation in intensity of glaciation-deglaciation events around Antarctica, critical for the study of local evolutionary processes. These are valuable data for understanding the remarkable success of Antarctic pycnogonids, and how environmental changes have shaped the evolution and diversification of Southern Ocean benthic biodiversity.

Fire and ice: volcanic and glacial impacts on the phylogeography of the New Zealand forest fern Asplenium hookerianum.

PubMed

Shepherd, Lara D; Perrie, Leon R; Brownsey, Patrick J

2007-11-01

In the Southern Hemisphere there has been little phylogeographical investigation of forest refugia sites during the last glacial. Hooker's spleenwort, Asplenium hookerianum, is a fern that is found throughout New Zealand. It is strongly associated with forest and is a proxy for the survival of woody vegetation during the last glacial maximum. DNA sequence data from the chloroplast trnL-trnF locus were obtained from 242 samples, including c. 10 individuals from each of 21 focal populations. Most populations contained multiple, and in many cases unique, haplotypes, including those neighbouring formerly glaciated areas, while the predominant inference from nested clade analysis was restricted gene flow with isolation by distance. These results suggest that A. hookerianum survived the last glacial maximum in widespread populations of sufficient size to retain the observed phylogeography, and therefore that the sheltering woody vegetation must have been similarly abundant. This is consistent with palynological interpretations for the survival in New Zealand of thermophilous forest species at considerably smaller distances from the ice sheets than recorded for the Northern Hemisphere. Eastern and central North Island populations of A. hookerianum were characterized by a different subset of haplotypes to populations from the remainder of the country. A similar east-west phylogeographical pattern has been detected in a diverse array of taxa, and has previously been attributed to recurrent vulcanism in the central North Island.

The global distribution of magnitude 9 earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaffrey, R.

2011-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku M9 earthquake once again caught some in the earthquake community by surprise. The expectation of these massive quakes has been driven in the past by the over-reliance on our short, incomplete history of earthquakes and causal relationships derived from it. The logic applied is that if a great earthquake has not happened in the past, that we know of, one cannot happen in the future. Using the ~100-year global earthquake history, seismologists have promoted relationships between maximum earthquake sizes and other properties of subduction zones, leading to the notion that some subduction zones, like the Japan Trench, would never produce a magnitude ~9 event. The 2004 Andaman Mw = 9.2 earthquake, that occurred where there is slow subduction of old crust and a history of only moderate-sized earthquakes, seriously undermined such ideas. Given multi-century return times of the greatest earthquakes, ignorance of those return times and our very limited observation span, I suggest that we cannot yet make such determinations. Alternatively, using the length of a subduction zone that is available for slip as the predominant factor in determining maximum earthquake size, we cannot rule out that any subduction zone of a few hundred kilometers or more in length may be capable of producing a magnitude 9 or larger earthquake. Based on this method, the expected maximum size for the Japan Trench was 9.0 (McCaffrey, Geology, p. 263, 2008). The same approach portends a M > 9 for Java, with twice the population density as Honshu and much lower building standards. The Java Trench, and others where old crust subducts (Hikurangi, Marianas, Tonga, Kermadec), require increased awareness of the possibility for a great earthquake.

Assessing size and strength of the clavicle for its usefulness for sex estimation in a British medieval sample.

PubMed

Atterton, Thomas; De Groote, Isabelle; Eliopoulos, Constantine

2016-10-01

The construction of the biological profile from human skeletal remains is the foundation of anthropological examination. However, remains may be fragmentary and the elements usually employed, such as the pelvis and skull, are not available. The clavicle has been successfully used for sex estimation in samples from Iran and Greece. In the present study, the aim was to test the suitability of the measurements used in those previous studies on a British Medieval population. In addition, the project tested whether discrimination between sexes was due to size or clavicular strength. The sample consisted of 23 females and 25 males of pre-determined sex from two medieval collections: Poulton and Gloucester. Six measurements were taken using an osteometric board, sliding calipers and graduated tape. In addition, putty rings and bi-planar radiographs were made and robusticity measures calculated. The resulting variables were used in stepwise discriminant analyses. The linear measurements allowed correct sex classification in 89.6% of all individuals. This demonstrates the applicability of the clavicle for sex estimation in British populations. The most powerful discriminant factor was maximum clavicular length and the best combination of factors was maximum clavicular length and circumference. This result is similar to that obtained by other studies. To further investigate the extent of sexual dimorphism of the clavicle, the biomechanical properties of the polar second moment of area J and the ratio of maximum to minimum bending rigidity are included in the analysis. These were found to have little influence when entered into the discriminant function analysis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Harvesting wildlife affected by climate change: a modelling and management approach for polar bears.

PubMed

Regehr, Eric V; Wilson, Ryan R; Rode, Karyn D; Runge, Michael C; Stern, Harry L

2017-10-01

The conservation of many wildlife species requires understanding the demographic effects of climate change, including interactions between climate change and harvest, which can provide cultural, nutritional or economic value to humans.We present a demographic model that is based on the polar bear Ursus maritimus life cycle and includes density-dependent relationships linking vital rates to environmental carrying capacity ( K ). Using this model, we develop a state-dependent management framework to calculate a harvest level that (i) maintains a population above its maximum net productivity level (MNPL; the population size that produces the greatest net increment in abundance) relative to a changing K , and (ii) has a limited negative effect on population persistence.Our density-dependent relationships suggest that MNPL for polar bears occurs at approximately 0·69 (95% CI = 0·63-0·74) of K . Population growth rate at MNPL was approximately 0·82 (95% CI = 0·79-0·84) of the maximum intrinsic growth rate, suggesting relatively strong compensation for human-caused mortality.Our findings indicate that it is possible to minimize the demographic risks of harvest under climate change, including the risk that harvest will accelerate population declines driven by loss of the polar bear's sea-ice habitat. This requires that (i) the harvest rate - which could be 0 in some situations - accounts for a population's intrinsic growth rate, (ii) the harvest rate accounts for the quality of population data (e.g. lower harvest when uncertainty is large), and (iii) the harvest level is obtained by multiplying the harvest rate by an updated estimate of population size. Environmental variability, the sex and age of removed animals and risk tolerance can also affect the harvest rate. Synthesis and applications . We present a coupled modelling and management approach for wildlife that accounts for climate change and can be used to balance trade-offs among multiple conservation goals. In our example application to polar bears experiencing sea-ice loss, the goals are to maintain population viability while providing continued opportunities for subsistence harvest. Our approach may be relevant to other species for which near-term management is focused on human factors that directly influence population dynamics within the broader context of climate-induced habitat degradation.

Harvesting wildlife affected by climate change: a modelling and management approach for polar bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, Eric V.; Wilson, Ryan R.; Rode, Karyn D.; Runge, Michael C.; Stern, Harry

2017-01-01

The conservation of many wildlife species requires understanding the demographic effects of climate change, including interactions between climate change and harvest, which can provide cultural, nutritional or economic value to humans.We present a demographic model that is based on the polar bear Ursus maritimus life cycle and includes density-dependent relationships linking vital rates to environmental carrying capacity (K). Using this model, we develop a state-dependent management framework to calculate a harvest level that (i) maintains a population above its maximum net productivity level (MNPL; the population size that produces the greatest net increment in abundance) relative to a changing K, and (ii) has a limited negative effect on population persistence.Our density-dependent relationships suggest that MNPL for polar bears occurs at approximately 0·69 (95% CI = 0·63–0·74) of K. Population growth rate at MNPL was approximately 0·82 (95% CI = 0·79–0·84) of the maximum intrinsic growth rate, suggesting relatively strong compensation for human-caused mortality.Our findings indicate that it is possible to minimize the demographic risks of harvest under climate change, including the risk that harvest will accelerate population declines driven by loss of the polar bear's sea-ice habitat. This requires that (i) the harvest rate – which could be 0 in some situations – accounts for a population's intrinsic growth rate, (ii) the harvest rate accounts for the quality of population data (e.g. lower harvest when uncertainty is large), and (iii) the harvest level is obtained by multiplying the harvest rate by an updated estimate of population size. Environmental variability, the sex and age of removed animals and risk tolerance can also affect the harvest rate.Synthesis and applications. We present a coupled modelling and management approach for wildlife that accounts for climate change and can be used to balance trade-offs among multiple conservation goals. In our example application to polar bears experiencing sea-ice loss, the goals are to maintain population viability while providing continued opportunities for subsistence harvest. Our approach may be relevant to other species for which near-term management is focused on human factors that directly influence population dynamics within the broader context of climate-induced habitat degradation.

Evolution of a predator-induced, nonlinear reaction norm.

PubMed

Carter, Mauricio J; Lind, Martin I; Dennis, Stuart R; Hentley, William; Beckerman, Andrew P

2017-08-30

Inducible, anti-predator traits are a classic example of phenotypic plasticity. Their evolutionary dynamics depend on their genetic basis, the historical pattern of predation risk that populations have experienced and current selection gradients. When populations experience predators with contrasting hunting strategies and size preferences, theory suggests contrasting micro-evolutionary responses to selection. Daphnia pulex is an ideal species to explore the micro-evolutionary response of anti-predator traits because they face heterogeneous predation regimes, sometimes experiencing only invertebrate midge predators and other times experiencing vertebrate fish and invertebrate midge predators. We explored plausible patterns of adaptive evolution of a predator-induced morphological reaction norm. We combined estimates of selection gradients that characterize the various habitats that D. pulex experiences with detail on the quantitative genetic architecture of inducible morphological defences. Our data reveal a fine scale description of daphnid defensive reaction norms, and a strong covariance between the sensitivity to cues and the maximum response to cues. By analysing the response of the reaction norm to plausible, predator-specific selection gradients, we show how in the context of this covariance, micro-evolution may be more uniform than predicted from size-selective predation theory. Our results show how covariance between the sensitivity to cues and the maximum response to cues for morphological defence can shape the evolutionary trajectory of predator-induced defences in D. pulex . © 2017 The Authors.

50 CFR 697.21 - Gear identification and marking, escape vent, maximum trap size, and ghost panel requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... vent, maximum trap size, and ghost panel requirements. 697.21 Section 697.21 Wildlife and Fisheries... identification and marking, escape vent, maximum trap size, and ghost panel requirements. (a) Gear identification... Administrator finds to be consistent with paragraph (c) of this section. (d) Ghost panel. (1) Lobster traps not...

50 CFR 697.21 - Gear identification and marking, escape vent, maximum trap size, and ghost panel requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... vent, maximum trap size, and ghost panel requirements. 697.21 Section 697.21 Wildlife and Fisheries... identification and marking, escape vent, maximum trap size, and ghost panel requirements. (a) Gear identification... Administrator finds to be consistent with paragraph (c) of this section. (d) Ghost panel. (1) Lobster traps not...

50 CFR 697.21 - Gear identification and marking, escape vent, maximum trap size, and ghost panel requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... vent, maximum trap size, and ghost panel requirements. 697.21 Section 697.21 Wildlife and Fisheries... identification and marking, escape vent, maximum trap size, and ghost panel requirements. (a) Gear identification... Administrator finds to be consistent with paragraph (c) of this section. (d) Ghost panel. (1) Lobster traps not...

Age, differential growth and mortality rates in unexploited populations of Florida gar, an apex predator in the Florida Everglades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murie, D.J.; Parkyn, D.C.; Nico, L.G.; Herod, J.J.; Loftus, W.F.

2009-01-01

Florida gar, Lepisosteus platyrhincus DeKay, were sampled in two canal systems in south Florida during 2000-2001 to estimate age, growth and mortality as part of the Everglades ecosystem-restoration effort. Tamiami (C-4) and L-31W canal systems had direct connections to natural wetlands of the Everglades and harboured large Florida gar populations. Of 476 fish aged, maximum ages were 19 and 10years for females and males, respectively. Maximum sizes were also larger for females compared with males (817 vs 602 mm total length). Overall, female Florida gar from both Tamiami and L-31W were larger at age than males from L-31W that, in turn, were larger at any given age than males from Tamiami. Females also had lower rates of annual mortality (Z = 0.21) than males from L-31W (Z = 0.31) or males from Tamiami (Z = 0.54). As a large and long-lived apex predator in the Everglades, Florida gar may structure lower trophic levels. Regional- and sex-specific population parameters for Florida gar will contribute to the simulation models designed to evaluate Everglades restoration alternatives. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Comparison of Maximum Stretch Forces between Femtosecond Laser-Assisted Capsulotomy and Continuous Curvilinear Capsulorhexis

PubMed Central

Ichikawa, Kei; Tanaka, Yoshiki; Kato, Yukihito; Horai, Rie; Tamaoki, Akeno; Ichikawa, Kazuo

2017-01-01

The current study reports comparing the postoperative mechanical properties of the anterior capsule between femtosecond laser capsulotomy (FLC) and continuous curvilinear capsulorhexis (CCC) of variable size and shape in porcine eyes. All CCCs were created using capsule forceps. Irregular or eccentric CCCs were also created to simulate real cataract surgery. For FLC, capsulotomies 5.3 mm in diameter were created using the LenSx® (Alcon) platform. Fresh porcine eyes were used in all experiments. The edges of the capsule openings were pulled at a constant speed using two L-shaped jigs. Stretch force and distance were recorded over time, and the maximum values in this regard were defined as those that were recorded when the capsule broke. There was no difference in maximum stretch force between CCC and FLC. There were no differences in circularity between FLC and same-sized CCC. However, same-sized CCC did show significantly higher maximum stretch forces than FLC. Teardrop-shaped CCC showed lower maximum stretch forces than same-sized CCC and FLC. Heart-shaped CCC showed lower maximum stretch forces than same-sized CCC. Conclusively, while capsule edge strength after CCC varied depending on size or irregularities, FLC had the advantage of stable maximum stretch forces. PMID:28210504

Comparison of Maximum Stretch Forces between Femtosecond Laser-Assisted Capsulotomy and Continuous Curvilinear Capsulorhexis.

PubMed

Takagi, Mari; Kojima, Takashi; Ichikawa, Kei; Tanaka, Yoshiki; Kato, Yukihito; Horai, Rie; Tamaoki, Akeno; Ichikawa, Kazuo

2017-01-01

The current study reports comparing the postoperative mechanical properties of the anterior capsule between femtosecond laser capsulotomy (FLC) and continuous curvilinear capsulorhexis (CCC) of variable size and shape in porcine eyes. All CCCs were created using capsule forceps. Irregular or eccentric CCCs were also created to simulate real cataract surgery. For FLC, capsulotomies 5.3 mm in diameter were created using the LenSx® (Alcon) platform. Fresh porcine eyes were used in all experiments. The edges of the capsule openings were pulled at a constant speed using two L-shaped jigs. Stretch force and distance were recorded over time, and the maximum values in this regard were defined as those that were recorded when the capsule broke. There was no difference in maximum stretch force between CCC and FLC. There were no differences in circularity between FLC and same-sized CCC. However, same-sized CCC did show significantly higher maximum stretch forces than FLC. Teardrop-shaped CCC showed lower maximum stretch forces than same-sized CCC and FLC. Heart-shaped CCC showed lower maximum stretch forces than same-sized CCC. Conclusively, while capsule edge strength after CCC varied depending on size or irregularities, FLC had the advantage of stable maximum stretch forces.

Tests of ecogeographical relationships in a non-native species: what rules avian morphology?

PubMed

Cardilini, Adam P A; Buchanan, Katherine L; Sherman, Craig D H; Cassey, Phillip; Symonds, Matthew R E

2016-07-01

The capacity of non-native species to undergo rapid adaptive change provides opportunities to research contemporary evolution through natural experiments. This capacity is particularly true when considering ecogeographical rules, to which non-native species have been shown to conform within relatively short periods of time. Ecogeographical rules explain predictable spatial patterns of morphology, physiology, life history and behaviour. We tested whether Australian populations of non-native starling, Sturnus vulgaris, introduced to the country approximately 150 years ago, exhibited predicted environmental clines in body size, appendage size and heart size (Bergmann's, Allen's and Hesse's rules, respectively). Adult starlings (n = 411) were collected from 28 localities from across eastern Australia from 2011 to 2012. Linear models were constructed to examine the relationships between morphology and local environment. Patterns of variation in body mass and bill surface area were consistent with Bergmann's and Allen's rules, respectively (small body size and larger bill size in warmer climates), with maximum summer temperature being a strongly weighted predictor of both variables. In the only intraspecific test of Hesse's rule in birds to date, we found no evidence to support the idea that relative heart size will be larger in individuals which live in colder climates. Our study does provide evidence that maximum temperature is a strong driver of morphological adaptation for starlings in Australia. The changes in morphology presented here demonstrate the potential for avian species to make rapid adaptive changes in relation to a changing climate to ameliorate the effects of heat stress.

Longevity of clonal plants: why it matters and how to measure it

PubMed Central

de Witte, Lucienne C.; Stöcklin, Jürg

2010-01-01

Background Species' life-history and population dynamics are strongly shaped by the longevity of individuals, but life span is one of the least accessible demographic traits, particularly in clonal plants. Continuous vegetative reproduction of genets enables persistence despite low or no sexual reproduction, affecting genet turnover rates and population stability. Therefore, the longevity of clonal plants is of considerable biological interest, but remains relatively poorly known. Scope Here, we critically review the present knowledge on the longevity of clonal plants and discuss its importance for population persistence. Direct life-span measurements such as growth-ring analysis in woody plants are relatively easy to take, although, for many clonal plants, these methods are not adequate due to the variable growth pattern of ramets and difficult genet identification. Recently, indirect methods have been introduced in which genet size and annual shoot increments are used to estimate genet age. These methods, often based on molecular techniques, allow the investigation of genet size and age structure of whole populations, a crucial issue for understanding their viability and persistence. However, indirect estimates of clonal longevity are impeded because the process of ageing in clonal plants is still poorly understood and because their size and age are not always well correlated. Alternative estimators for genet life span such as somatic mutations have recently been suggested. Conclusions Empirical knowledge on the longevity of clonal species has increased considerably in the last few years. Maximum age estimates are an indicator of population persistence, but are not sufficient to evaluate turnover rates and the ability of long-lived clonal plants to enhance community stability and ecosystem resilience. In order to understand the dynamics of populations it will be necessary to measure genet size and age structure, not only life spans of single individuals, and to use such data for modelling of genet dynamics. PMID:20880935

Population structure and life history of Hemimysis lamornae mediterranea (Malacostraca: Mysida) in the Ebro Delta (NW Mediterranean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgado, L.; Guerao, G.; Vicente, C. San; Ribera, C.

2013-10-01

Hemimysis lamornae mediterraneaBacescu, 1936 has been recently reported in the Ebro Delta (Spain, NW Mediterranean). Little is known about the biology and ecology of this mysid and we provide the first information about its population biology. H. l. mediterranea were collected from Sant Carles de la Ràpita harbor from June 2010 to March 2012 at night. The H. l. mediterranea population was composed of two main individual size categories: larger-sized winter/spring individuals and smaller-sized spring/summer individuals. The overall sex ratio is highly skewed; mature females are 2.5 times more abundant than mature males. Reproductive activity was higher during late winter and spring but was almost continuous throughout the year. The intra-marsupial development and growth of juveniles has been studied in the laboratory. The mean duration of incubation period (intra-marsupial stages) in laboratory conditions was 11 days (20 °C) and the age at first maturity ranged from14 to 20 days. The growth rate was faster in early juveniles and declined with age, showing a maximum of 0.152 mm d- 1. The laboratory results and demographic data suggest that H. l. mediterranea will produce several generations per year in the Ebro Delta. H. l. mediterranea was characterized by a combination of early maturation of individuals (short juvenile period), rapid growth, small adult size, a continuous reproduction all year round, iteroparous females, a relatively high fecundity and a high number of generations per year.

Ancestral Relationships Using Metafounders: Finite Ancestral Populations and Across Population Relationships.

PubMed

Legarra, Andres; Christensen, Ole F; Vitezica, Zulma G; Aguilar, Ignacio; Misztal, Ignacy

2015-06-01

Recent use of genomic (marker-based) relationships shows that relationships exist within and across base population (breeds or lines). However, current treatment of pedigree relationships is unable to consider relationships within or across base populations, although such relationships must exist due to finite size of the ancestral population and connections between populations. This complicates the conciliation of both approaches and, in particular, combining pedigree with genomic relationships. We present a coherent theoretical framework to consider base population in pedigree relationships. We suggest a conceptual framework that considers each ancestral population as a finite-sized pool of gametes. This generates across-individual relationships and contrasts with the classical view which each population is considered as an infinite, unrelated pool. Several ancestral populations may be connected and therefore related. Each ancestral population can be represented as a "metafounder," a pseudo-individual included as founder of the pedigree and similar to an "unknown parent group." Metafounders have self- and across relationships according to a set of parameters, which measure ancestral relationships, i.e., homozygozities within populations and relationships across populations. These parameters can be estimated from existing pedigree and marker genotypes using maximum likelihood or a method based on summary statistics, for arbitrarily complex pedigrees. Equivalences of genetic variance and variance components between the classical and this new parameterization are shown. Segregation variance on crosses of populations is modeled. Efficient algorithms for computation of relationship matrices, their inverses, and inbreeding coefficients are presented. Use of metafounders leads to compatibility of genomic and pedigree relationship matrices and to simple computing algorithms. Examples and code are given. Copyright © 2015 by the Genetics Society of America.

Broad-scale sampling of primary freshwater fish populations reveals the role of intrinsic traits, inter-basin connectivity, drainage area and latitude on shaping contemporary patterns of genetic diversity

PubMed Central

Robalo, Joana I.; Pereira, Ana M.; Branco, Paulo; Santos, José Maria; Ferreira, Maria Teresa; Sousa, Mónica; Doadrio, Ignacio

2016-01-01

Background. Worldwide predictions suggest that up to 75% of the freshwater fish species occurring in rivers with reduced discharge could be extinct by 2070 due to the combined effect of climate change and water abstraction. The Mediterranean region is considered to be a hotspot of freshwater fish diversity but also one of the regions where the effects of climate change will be more severe. Iberian cyprinids are currently highly endangered, with over 68% of the species raising some level of conservation concern. Methods. During the FISHATLAS project, the Portuguese hydrographical network was extensively covered (all the 34 river basins and 47 sub-basins) in order to contribute with valuable data on the genetic diversity distribution patterns of native cyprinid species. A total of 188 populations belonging to 16 cyprinid species of Squalius, Luciobarbus, Achondrostoma, Iberochondrostoma, Anaecypris and Pseudochondrostoma were characterized, for a total of 3,678 cytochrome b gene sequences. Results. When the genetic diversity of these populations was mapped, it highlighted differences among populations from the same species and between species with identical distribution areas. Factors shaping the contemporary patterns of genetic diversity were explored and the results revealed the role of latitude, inter-basin connectivity, migratory behaviour, species maximum size, species range and other species intrinsic traits in determining the genetic diversity of sampled populations. Contrastingly, drainage area and hydrological regime (permanent vs. temporary) seem to have no significant effect on genetic diversity. Species intrinsic traits, maximum size attained, inter-basin connectivity and latitude explained over 30% of the haplotype diversity variance and, generally, the levels of diversity were significantly higher for smaller sized species, from connected and southerly river basins. Discussion. Targeting multiple co-distributed species of primary freshwater fish allowed us to assess the relative role of historical versus contemporary factors affecting genetic diversity. Since different patterns were detected for species with identical distribution areas we postulate that contemporary determinants of genetic diversity (species’ intrinsic traits and landscape features) must have played a more significant role than historical factors. Implications for conservation in a context of climate change and highly disturbed habitats are detailed, namely the need to focus management and conservation actions on intraspecific genetic data and to frequently conduct combined genetic and demographic surveys. PMID:26966653

Extensive long-distance pollen dispersal and highly outcrossed mating in historically small and disjunct populations of Acacia woodmaniorum (Fabaceae), a rare banded iron formation endemic.

PubMed

Millar, Melissa A; Coates, David J; Byrne, Margaret

2014-10-01

Understanding patterns of pollen dispersal and variation in mating systems provides insights into the evolutionary potential of plant species and how historically rare species with small disjunct populations persist over long time frames. This study aims to quantify the role of pollen dispersal and the mating system in maintaining contemporary levels of connectivity and facilitating persistence of small populations of the historically rare Acacia woodmaniorum. Progeny arrays of A. woodmaniorum were genotyped with nine polymorphic microsatellite markers. A low number of fathers contributed to seed within single pods; therefore, sampling to remove bias of correlated paternity was implemented for further analysis. Pollen immigration and mating system parameters were then assessed in eight populations of varying size and degree of isolation. Pollen immigration into small disjunct populations was extensive (mean minimum estimate 40 % and mean maximum estimate 57 % of progeny) and dispersal occurred over large distances (≤1870m). Pollen immigration resulted in large effective population sizes and was sufficient to ensure adaptive and inbreeding connectivity in small disjunct populations. High outcrossing (mean tm = 0·975) and a lack of apparent inbreeding suggested that a self-incompatibility mechanism is operating. Population parameters, including size and degree of geographic disjunction, were not useful predictors of pollen dispersal or components of the mating system. Extensive long-distance pollen dispersal and a highly outcrossed mating system are likely to play a key role in maintaining genetic diversity and limiting negative genetic effects of inbreeding and drift in small disjunct populations of A. woodmaniorum. It is proposed that maintenance of genetic connectivity through habitat and pollinator conservation will be a key factor in the persistence of this and other historically rare species with similar extensive long-distance pollen dispersal and highly outcrossed mating systems. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

On the Importance of Cycle Minimum in Sunspot Cycle Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

1996-01-01

The characteristics of the minima between sunspot cycles are found to provide important information for predicting the amplitude and timing of the following cycle. For example, the time of the occurrence of sunspot minimum sets the length of the previous cycle, which is correlated by the amplitude-period effect to the amplitude of the next cycle, with cycles of shorter (longer) than average length usually being followed by cycles of larger (smaller) than average size (true for 16 of 21 sunspot cycles). Likewise, the size of the minimum at cycle onset is correlated with the size of the cycle's maximum amplitude, with cycles of larger (smaller) than average size minima usually being associated with larger (smaller) than average size maxima (true for 16 of 22 sunspot cycles). Also, it was found that the size of the previous cycle's minimum and maximum relates to the size of the following cycle's minimum and maximum with an even-odd cycle number dependency. The latter effect suggests that cycle 23 will have a minimum and maximum amplitude probably larger than average in size (in particular, minimum smoothed sunspot number Rm = 12.3 +/- 7.5 and maximum smoothed sunspot number RM = 198.8 +/- 36.5, at the 95-percent level of confidence), further suggesting (by the Waldmeier effect) that it will have a faster than average rise to maximum (fast-rising cycles have ascent durations of about 41 +/- 7 months). Thus, if, as expected, onset for cycle 23 will be December 1996 +/- 3 months, based on smoothed sunspot number, then the length of cycle 22 will be about 123 +/- 3 months, inferring that it is a short-period cycle and that cycle 23 maximum amplitude probably will be larger than average in size (from the amplitude-period effect), having an RM of about 133 +/- 39 (based on the usual +/- 30 percent spread that has been seen between observed and predicted values), with maximum amplitude occurrence likely sometime between July 1999 and October 2000.

Monitoring planktivorous seabird populations: Validating surface counts of crevice-nesting auklets using mark-resight techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sheffield, L.M.; Gall, Adrian E.; Roby, D.D.; Irons, D.B.; Dugger, K.M.

2006-01-01

Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla (Pallas, 1811)) are the most abundant species of seabird in the Bering Sea and offer a relatively efficient means of monitoring secondary productivity in the marine environment. Counting auklets on surface plots is the primary method used to track changes in numbers of these crevice-nesters, but counts can be highly variable and may not be representative of the number of nesting individuals. We compared average maximum counts of Least Auklets on surface plots with density estimates based on mark–resight data at a colony on St. Lawrence Island, Alaska, during 2001–2004. Estimates of breeding auklet abundance from mark–resight averaged 8 times greater than those from maximum surface counts. Our results also indicate that average maximum surface counts are poor indicators of breeding auklet abundance and do not vary consistently with auklet nesting density across the breeding colony. Estimates of Least Auklet abundance from mark–resight were sufficiently precise to meet management goals for tracking changes in seabird populations. We recommend establishing multiple permanent banding plots for mark–resight studies on colonies selected for intensive long-term monitoring. Mark–resight is more likely to detect biologically significant changes in size of auklet breeding colonies than traditional surface count techniques.

Estimating numbers of greater prairie-chickens using mark-resight techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clifton, A.M.; Krementz, D.G.

2006-01-01

Current monitoring efforts for greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) populations indicate that populations are declining across their range. Monitoring the population status of greater prairie-chickens is based on traditional lek surveys (TLS) that provide an index without considering detectability. Estimators, such as immigration-emigration joint maximum-likelihood estimator from a hypergeometric distribution (IEJHE), can account for detectability and provide reliable population estimates based on resightings. We evaluated the use of mark-resight methods using radiotelemetry to estimate population size and density of greater prairie-chickens on 2 sites at a tallgrass prairie in the Flint Hills of Kansas, USA. We used average distances traveled from lek of capture to estimate density. Population estimates and confidence intervals at the 2 sites were 54 (CI 50-59) on 52.9 km 2 and 87 (CI 82-94) on 73.6 km2. The TLS performed at the same sites resulted in population ranges of 7-34 and 36-63 and always produced a lower population index than the mark-resight population estimate with a larger range. Mark-resight simulations with varying male:female ratios of marks indicated that this ratio was important in designing a population study on prairie-chickens. Confidence intervals for estimates when no marks were placed on females at the 2 sites (CI 46-50, 76-84) did not overlap confidence intervals when 40% of marks were placed on females (CI 54-64, 91-109). Population estimates derived using this mark-resight technique were apparently more accurate than traditional methods and would be more effective in detecting changes in prairie-chicken populations. Our technique could improve prairie-chicken management by providing wildlife biologists and land managers with a tool to estimate the population size and trends of lekking bird species, such as greater prairie-chickens.

How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne

2016-01-01

In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected. PMID:27129737

Empirical tests of harvest-induced body-size evolution along a geographic gradient in Australian macropods.

PubMed

Prowse, Thomas A A; Correll, Rachel A; Johnson, Christopher N; Prideaux, Gavin J; Brook, Barry W

2015-01-01

Life-history theory predicts the progressive dwarfing of animal populations that are subjected to chronic mortality stress, but the evolutionary impact of harvesting terrestrial herbivores has seldom been tested. In Australia, marsupials of the genus Macropus (kangaroos and wallabies) are subjected to size-selective commercial harvesting. Mathematical modelling suggests that harvest quotas (c. 10-20% of population estimates annually) could be driving body-size evolution in these species. We tested this hypothesis for three harvested macropod species with continental-scale distributions. To do so, we measured more than 2000 macropod skulls sourced from wildlife collections spanning the last 130 years. We analysed these data using spatial Bayesian models that controlled for the age and sex of specimens as well as environmental drivers and island effects. We found no evidence for the hypothesized decline in body size for any species; rather, models that fit trend terms supported minor body size increases over time. This apparently counterintuitive result is consistent with reduced mortality due to a depauperate predator guild and increased primary productivity of grassland vegetation following European settlement in Australia. Spatial patterns in macropod body size supported the heat dissipation limit and productivity hypotheses proposed to explain geographic body-size variation (i.e. skull size increased with decreasing summer maximum temperature and increasing rainfall, respectively). There is no empirical evidence that size-selective harvesting has driven the evolution of smaller body size in Australian macropods. Bayesian models are appropriate for investigating the long-term impact of human harvesting because they can impute missing data, fit nonlinear growth models and account for non-random spatial sampling inherent in wildlife collections. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Achieving temperature-size changes in a unicellular organism

PubMed Central

Forster, Jack; Hirst, Andrew G; Esteban, Genoveva F

2013-01-01

The temperature-size rule (TSR) is an intraspecific phenomenon describing the phenotypic plastic response of an organism size to the temperature: individuals reared at cooler temperatures mature to be larger adults than those reared at warmer temperatures. The TSR is ubiquitous, affecting >80% species including uni- and multicellular groups. How the TSR is established has received attention in multicellular organisms, but not in unicells. Further, conceptual models suggest the mechanism of size change to be different in these two groups. Here, we test these theories using the protist Cyclidium glaucoma. We measure cell sizes, along with population growth during temperature acclimation, to determine how and when the temperature-size changes are achieved. We show that mother and daughter sizes become temporarily decoupled from the ratio 2:1 during acclimation, but these return to their coupled state (where daughter cells are half the size of the mother cell) once acclimated. Thermal acclimation is rapid, being completed within approximately a single generation. Further, we examine the impact of increased temperatures on carrying capacity and total biomass, to investigate potential adaptive strategies of size change. We demonstrate no temperature effect on carrying capacity, but maximum supported biomass to decrease with increasing temperature. PMID:22832346

Position Information Encoded by Population Activity in Hierarchical Visual Areas

PubMed Central

Majima, Kei; Horikawa, Tomoyasu

2017-01-01

Abstract Neurons in high-level visual areas respond to more complex visual features with broader receptive fields (RFs) compared to those in low-level visual areas. Thus, high-level visual areas are generally considered to carry less information regarding the position of seen objects in the visual field. However, larger RFs may not imply loss of position information at the population level. Here, we evaluated how accurately the position of a seen object could be predicted (decoded) from activity patterns in each of six representative visual areas with different RF sizes [V1–V4, lateral occipital complex (LOC), and fusiform face area (FFA)]. We collected functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) responses while human subjects viewed a ball randomly moving in a two-dimensional field. To estimate population RF sizes of individual fMRI voxels, RF models were fitted for individual voxels in each brain area. The voxels in higher visual areas showed larger estimated RFs than those in lower visual areas. Then, the ball’s position in a separate session was predicted by maximum likelihood estimation using the RF models of individual voxels. We also tested a model-free multivoxel regression (support vector regression, SVR) to predict the position. We found that regardless of the difference in RF size, all visual areas showed similar prediction accuracies, especially on the horizontal dimension. Higher areas showed slightly lower accuracies on the vertical dimension, which appears to be attributed to the narrower spatial distributions of the RF centers. The results suggest that much position information is preserved in population activity through the hierarchical visual pathway regardless of RF sizes and is potentially available in later processing for recognition and behavior. PMID:28451634

Displaced phylogeographic signals from Gyrodactylus arcuatus, a parasite of the three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus, suggest freshwater glacial refugia in Europe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lumme, Jaakko; Mäkinen, Hannu; Ermolenko, Alexey V.; Gregg, Jacob L.; Ziętara, Marek S.

2016-01-01

We examined the global mitochondrial phylogeography of Gyrodactylus arcuatus, a flatworm ectoparasite of three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus. In accordance with the suggested high divergence rate of 13%/million years, the genetic variation of the parasite was high: haplotype diversity h = 0.985 and nucleotide diversity π = 0.0161. The differentiation among the parasite populations was substantial (Φst = 0.759), with two main allopatric clades (here termed Euro and North) accounting for 54% of the total genetic variation. The diversity center of the Euro clade was in the Baltic Sea, while the North clade was spread across the Barents and White Seas. A single haplotype within the North clade was found in the western and eastern Pacific Ocean. Divergence of main clades was estimated to be circa 200 thousand years ago. Each main clade was further divided into six distinct subclades, estimated to have diverged in isolation since 135 thousand years ago. This second division corresponds approximately to the Eemian interglacial predating the last glacial maximum. A demographic expansion of the subclades is associated with colonisation of northern Europe since the last glacial maximum, circa 15–40 thousand years ago. The parasite phylogeny is most likely explained by sequential isolated bottlenecks and expansions in numerous allopatric refugia. The postglacial intermingling and high variation in the marine parasite populations, separately in the Baltic and Barents Seas, suggest low competition of divergent parasite matrilines, coupled with a large population size and high rate of dispersal of hosts. The genetic contribution of the assumed refugial fish populations maintaining the parasite during the last glacial maximum was not detected among the marine sticklebacks, which perhaps were infected after range expansion.

Displaced phylogeographic signals from Gyrodactylus arcuatus, a parasite of the three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus, suggest freshwater glacial refugia in Europe.

PubMed

Lumme, Jaakko; Mäkinen, Hannu; Ermolenko, Alexey V; Gregg, Jacob L; Ziętara, Marek S

2016-08-01

We examined the global mitochondrial phylogeography of Gyrodactylus arcuatus, a flatworm ectoparasite of three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus. In accordance with the suggested high divergence rate of 13%/million years, the genetic variation of the parasite was high: haplotype diversity h=0.985 and nucleotide diversity π=0.0161. The differentiation among the parasite populations was substantial (Φst=0.759), with two main allopatric clades (here termed Euro and North) accounting for 54% of the total genetic variation. The diversity center of the Euro clade was in the Baltic Sea, while the North clade was spread across the Barents and White Seas. A single haplotype within the North clade was found in the western and eastern Pacific Ocean. Divergence of main clades was estimated to be circa 200 thousand years ago. Each main clade was further divided into six distinct subclades, estimated to have diverged in isolation since 135 thousand years ago. This second division corresponds approximately to the Eemian interglacial predating the last glacial maximum. A demographic expansion of the subclades is associated with colonisation of northern Europe since the last glacial maximum, circa 15-40 thousand years ago. The parasite phylogeny is most likely explained by sequential isolated bottlenecks and expansions in numerous allopatric refugia. The postglacial intermingling and high variation in the marine parasite populations, separately in the Baltic and Barents Seas, suggest low competition of divergent parasite matrilines, coupled with a large population size and high rate of dispersal of hosts. The genetic contribution of the assumed refugial fish populations maintaining the parasite during the last glacial maximum was not detected among the marine sticklebacks, which perhaps were infected after range expansion. Copyright © 2016 Australian Society for Parasitology. All rights reserved.

Population demographic history of a temperate shrub, Rhododendron weyrichii (Ericaceae), on continental islands of Japan and South Korea.

PubMed

Yoichi, Watanabe; Tamaki, Ichiro; Sakaguchi, Shota; Song, Jong-Suk; Yamamoto, Shin-Ichi; Tomaru, Nobuhiro

2016-12-01

Continental islands provide opportunities for testing the effects of isolation and migration on genetic variation in plant populations. In characteristic of continental islands is that the geographic connections between these islands, which are currently distinguished by seaways, have experienced fluctuations caused by sea-level changes due to climate oscillations during the Quaternary. Plant populations on the islands have migrated between these islands via the exposed seafloors or been isolated. Here, we examined the demographic history of a temperate shrub, Rhododendron weyrichii , which is distributed in the southwestern parts of the Japanese archipelago and on an island of South Korea, using statistical phylogeographic approaches based on the DNA sequences of two chloroplast and eight nuclear loci in samples analyzed from 18 populations on eight continental islands, and palaeodistribution modeling. Time estimates for four island populations indicate that the durations of vicariance history are different between these populations, and these events have continued since the last glacial or may have predated the last glacial. The constancy or expansion of population sizes on the Japanese islands, and in contrast a bottleneck in population size on the Korean island Jeju, suggests that these islands may have provided different conditions for sustaining populations. The result of palaeodistribution modeling indicates that the longitudinal range of the species as a whole has not changed greatly since the last glacial maximum. These results indicate that exposed seafloors during the glacial period formed both effective and ineffective migration corridors. These findings may shed light on the effects of seafloor exposure on the migration of plants distributed across continental islands.

Growth and Maximum Size of Tiger Sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier) in Hawaii

PubMed Central

Meyer, Carl G.; O'Malley, Joseph M.; Papastamatiou, Yannis P.; Dale, Jonathan J.; Hutchinson, Melanie R.; Anderson, James M.; Royer, Mark A.; Holland, Kim N.

2014-01-01

Tiger sharks (Galecerdo cuvier) are apex predators characterized by their broad diet, large size and rapid growth. Tiger shark maximum size is typically between 380 & 450 cm Total Length (TL), with a few individuals reaching 550 cm TL, but the maximum size of tiger sharks in Hawaii waters remains uncertain. A previous study suggested tiger sharks grow rather slowly in Hawaii compared to other regions, but this may have been an artifact of the method used to estimate growth (unvalidated vertebral ring counts) compounded by small sample size and narrow size range. Since 1993, the University of Hawaii has conducted a research program aimed at elucidating tiger shark biology, and to date 420 tiger sharks have been tagged and 50 recaptured. All recaptures were from Hawaii except a single shark recaptured off Isla Jacques Cousteau (24°13′17″N 109°52′14″W), in the southern Gulf of California (minimum distance between tag and recapture sites  =  approximately 5,000 km), after 366 days at liberty (DAL). We used these empirical mark-recapture data to estimate growth rates and maximum size for tiger sharks in Hawaii. We found that tiger sharks in Hawaii grow twice as fast as previously thought, on average reaching 340 cm TL by age 5, and attaining a maximum size of 403 cm TL. Our model indicates the fastest growing individuals attain 400 cm TL by age 5, and the largest reach a maximum size of 444 cm TL. The largest shark captured during our study was 464 cm TL but individuals >450 cm TL were extremely rare (0.005% of sharks captured). We conclude that tiger shark growth rates and maximum sizes in Hawaii are generally consistent with those in other regions, and hypothesize that a broad diet may help them to achieve this rapid growth by maximizing prey consumption rates. PMID:24416287

Growth and maximum size of tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier) in Hawaii.

PubMed

Meyer, Carl G; O'Malley, Joseph M; Papastamatiou, Yannis P; Dale, Jonathan J; Hutchinson, Melanie R; Anderson, James M; Royer, Mark A; Holland, Kim N

2014-01-01

Tiger sharks (Galecerdo cuvier) are apex predators characterized by their broad diet, large size and rapid growth. Tiger shark maximum size is typically between 380 & 450 cm Total Length (TL), with a few individuals reaching 550 cm TL, but the maximum size of tiger sharks in Hawaii waters remains uncertain. A previous study suggested tiger sharks grow rather slowly in Hawaii compared to other regions, but this may have been an artifact of the method used to estimate growth (unvalidated vertebral ring counts) compounded by small sample size and narrow size range. Since 1993, the University of Hawaii has conducted a research program aimed at elucidating tiger shark biology, and to date 420 tiger sharks have been tagged and 50 recaptured. All recaptures were from Hawaii except a single shark recaptured off Isla Jacques Cousteau (24°13'17″N 109°52'14″W), in the southern Gulf of California (minimum distance between tag and recapture sites  =  approximately 5,000 km), after 366 days at liberty (DAL). We used these empirical mark-recapture data to estimate growth rates and maximum size for tiger sharks in Hawaii. We found that tiger sharks in Hawaii grow twice as fast as previously thought, on average reaching 340 cm TL by age 5, and attaining a maximum size of 403 cm TL. Our model indicates the fastest growing individuals attain 400 cm TL by age 5, and the largest reach a maximum size of 444 cm TL. The largest shark captured during our study was 464 cm TL but individuals >450 cm TL were extremely rare (0.005% of sharks captured). We conclude that tiger shark growth rates and maximum sizes in Hawaii are generally consistent with those in other regions, and hypothesize that a broad diet may help them to achieve this rapid growth by maximizing prey consumption rates.

Smaller predator-prey body size ratios in longer food chains.

PubMed Central

Jennings, Simon; Warr, Karema J

2003-01-01

Maximum food-chain length has been correlated with resource availability, ecosystem size, environmental stability and colonization history. Some of these correlations may result from environmental effects on predator-prey body size ratios. We investigate relationships between maximum food-chain length, predator-prey mass ratios, primary production and environmental stability in marine food webs with a natural history of community assembly. Our analyses provide empirical evidence that smaller mean predator-prey body size ratios are characteristic of more stable environments and that food chains are longer when mean predator-prey body size ratios are small. We conclude that environmental effects on predator-prey body size ratios contribute to observed differences in maximum food-chain length. PMID:12965034

Movement patterns and population characteristics of the Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis) at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knutson, Randy L.; Kwilosz, John R.; Grundel, Ralph

1999-01-01

We conducted a three-year mark-release-recapture study of the endangered Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis Nabokov) at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore to describe the butterfly's movement patterns and to assess seasonal changes in the Karner blue's population structure. Estimated mean Karner blue adult life span was less than 3.5 days. Populations exhibited protandry and about a 2:1 male:female sex ratio at population peak within a brood. Ranges, or maximum distances moved by individual butterflies, were typically less than 100 m. Maximum ranges were less than 1 km. These distances are similar to those reported for other lycaenid butterflies and from other studies of the Karner blue in the midwestern United States. At two sites, fewer than 2% of adults had ranges greater than 300 m, while at a third site 4.3% of adults had ranges greater than 300 m. Given typical subpopulation sizes these movement percentages suggest that few adults per generation will move between subpopulations separated by more than 300 m. Movement of individuals between subpopulation sites is important for maintaining genetic diversity within a metapopulation and for recolonizing areas following local extinctions. Therefore, prudent conservation planning should aim for a landscape with habitat patches suitable for Karner blue butterfly occupancy separated by less than 300 m.

Population variables and life-history characteristics of the alligator pipefish Syngnathoides biaculeatus, in Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Barrows, A P W; Martin-Smith, K M; Baine, M S P

2009-03-01

Population structure and life-history variables of the widely distributed alligator pipefish Syngnathoides biaculeatus were characterized in Bootless Bay, Papua New Guinea over the course of 11 months. There was little evidence of seasonality with four focal populations showing no significant change in abundance. Similarly, the sex ratio remained 1:1 for all but 1 month. Reproductive males carrying eggs (148-278 mm in total length, L(T)) were found in all months. Brood size was significantly, positively related to male L(T) for newly laid broods only. Maximum observed brood size was 351 and mean +/-s.d. brood size was 238 +/- 57 for newly laid broods. Juveniles and males showed no change in mean L(T) over the year while slightly smaller females were captured in November 2006 and September 2007. Males were significantly longer than females so von Bertalanffy growth coefficients were estimated separately for each sex: males L(infinity)= 285 mm, K = 0.82 year(-1) and females L(infinity)= 261 mm, K = 1.10 year(-1). These estimates suggest that this species grows rapidly and has a short-life span. In the context of growing concern about overexploitation of syngnathids, a rapid growth rate combined with year round reproductive activity suggests that the tropical S. biaculeatus may be relatively resilient with regard to fishing pressure.

Limits on great earthquake size at subduction zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaffrey, R.

2012-12-01

Subduction zones are where the world's greatest earthquakes occur due to the large fault area available to slip. Yet some subduction zones are thought to be immune from these massive events, where quake size is limited by some physical processes or properties. Accordingly, the size of the 2011 Tohoku-oki Mw 9.0 earthquake caught some in the earthquake research community by surprise. The expectations of these massive quakes have been driven in the past by reliance on our short, incomplete history of earthquakes and causal relationships derived from it. The logic applied is that if a great earthquake has not happened in the past, that we know of, one cannot happen in the future. Using the ~100-year global earthquake seismological history, and in some cases extended with geologic observations, relationships between maximum earthquake sizes and other properties of subduction zones are suggested, leading to the notion that some subduction zones, like the Japan Trench, would never produce a magnitude ~9 event. Empirical correlations of earthquake behavior with other subduction parameters can give false positive results when the data are incomplete or incorrect, of small numbers and numerous attributes are examined. Given multi-century return times of the greatest earthquakes, ignorance of those return times and our relatively limited temporal observation span (in most places), I suggest that we cannot yet rule out great earthquakes at any subduction zones. Alternatively, using the length of a subduction zone that is available for slip as the predominant factor in determining maximum earthquake size, we cannot rule out that any subduction zone of a few hundred kilometers or more in length may be capable of producing a magnitude 9 or larger earthquake. Based on this method, the expected maximum size for the Japan Trench was 9.0 (McCaffrey, Geology, p. 263, 2008). The same approach indicates that a M > 9 off Java, with twice the population density as Honshu and much lower building standards, is possible. The Java Trench, and others that are considered of the low-coupling type (i.e., Hikurangi, Marianas, Tonga, Kermadec), require increased awareness of the possibility for a great earthquake and tsunami.

Reproductive characteristics and population decline of four species of skate (Rajidae) off the eastern coast of Canada.

PubMed

Mcphie, R P; Campana, S E

2009-07-01

Four of the most common species of skate (Rajidae) were studied off eastern Canada to determine if their reproductive characteristics were linked to their population trajectories. The fecundity of the winter skate Leucoraja ocellata, the little skate Leucoraja erinacea, the thorny skate Amblyraja radiata and the smooth skate Malacoraja senta averaged between 41 and 56 egg cases per year for each species. For all species but L. ocellata, males matured at larger sizes and at later ages than females. Theoretical rates of population increase for non-equilibrium populations of L. ocellata (c. 0.07), M. senta (c. 0.14) and L. erinacea and A. radiata (c. 0.20) were low compared to most fishes, indicating that north-west Atlantic skates are intrinsically unproductive, yet are theoretically capable of supporting low-level fisheries. Nevertheless, the results of 36 years of research surveys indicate that the abundance of mature L. ocellata, A. radiata and M. senta all decreased by >90% since 1970, indicating that past fishing mortality (both directed and undirected) has outstripped the net productivity of the skate populations on the eastern Scotian Shelf. The relationship between maximum age (t(max)) and age of maturity (t(mat)) was a better predictor of population growth rate than was body size, with the species exhibiting the highest ratios of t(mat) :t(max) (L. ocellata = 0.68, M. senta = 0.66) having the lowest predicted population growth rates. L. ocellata appears to have the lowest productivity and has experienced the greatest population decline, thus raising concerns over its future status.

Clustering and phase transitions on a neutral landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Adam D.; King, Dawn M.; Marić, Nevena; Bahar, Sonya

2013-06-01

Recent computational studies have shown that speciation can occur under neutral conditions, i.e., when the simulated organisms all have identical fitness. These works bear comparison with mathematical studies of clustering on neutral landscapes in the context of branching and coalescing random walks. Here, we show that sympatric clustering/speciation can occur on a neutral landscape whose dimensions specify only the simulated organisms’ phenotypes. We demonstrate that clustering occurs not only in the case of assortative mating, but also in the case of asexual fission; it is not observed in the control case of random mating. We find that the population size and the number of clusters undergo a second-order non-equilibrium phase transition as the maximum mutation size is varied.

Killer whale nuclear genome and mtDNA reveal widespread population bottleneck during the last glacial maximum.

PubMed

Moura, Andre E; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P J Nico; Worley, Kim C; Gibbs, Richard A; Dahlheim, Marilyn E; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-05-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline.

Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data.

PubMed

González, Edgar J; Martorell, Carlos

2013-07-01

Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with artificial and real data. The former involved simulated species with widely different demographic behaviors. The latter used a chronosequence of populations of an endangered cactus subject to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. In our simulations, the vital rates and their change were always reconstructed accurately. Nevertheless, the model frequently produced alternative results. The use of coarse knowledge of the species' biology (whether vital rates increase or decrease with size or their plausible values) allowed the correct rates to be identified with a 90% success rate. With real data, the model correctly reconstructed the effects of disturbance on vital rates. These effects were previously known from two populations for which demographic data were available. Our procedure seems robust, as the data violated several of the model's assumptions. Thus, time series of size structures and densities contain the necessary information to reconstruct changing vital rates. However, additional biological knowledge may be required to provide reliable results. Because time series of size structures and densities are available for many species or can be rapidly generated, our model can contribute to understand populations that face highly pressing environmental problems.

Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data

PubMed Central

González, Edgar J; Martorell, Carlos

2013-01-01

Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with artificial and real data. The former involved simulated species with widely different demographic behaviors. The latter used a chronosequence of populations of an endangered cactus subject to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. In our simulations, the vital rates and their change were always reconstructed accurately. Nevertheless, the model frequently produced alternative results. The use of coarse knowledge of the species' biology (whether vital rates increase or decrease with size or their plausible values) allowed the correct rates to be identified with a 90% success rate. With real data, the model correctly reconstructed the effects of disturbance on vital rates. These effects were previously known from two populations for which demographic data were available. Our procedure seems robust, as the data violated several of the model's assumptions. Thus, time series of size structures and densities contain the necessary information to reconstruct changing vital rates. However, additional biological knowledge may be required to provide reliable results. Because time series of size structures and densities are available for many species or can be rapidly generated, our model can contribute to understand populations that face highly pressing environmental problems. PMID:23919169

Parallel responses of bees to Pleistocene climate change in three isolated archipelagos of the southwestern Pacific.

PubMed

Groom, Scott V C; Stevens, Mark I; Schwarz, Michael P

2014-06-22

The impacts of glacial cycles on the geographical distribution and size of populations have been explored for numerous terrestrial and marine taxa. However, most studies have focused on high latitudes, with only a few focused on the response of biota to the last glacial maximum (LGM) in equatorial regions. Here, we examine how population sizes of key bee fauna in the southwest Pacific archipelagos of Fiji, Vanuatu and Samoa have fluctuated over the Quaternary. We show that all three island faunas suffered massive population declines, roughly corresponding in time to the LGM, followed by rapid expansion post-LGM. Our data therefore suggest that Pleistocene climate change has had major impacts across a very broad tropical region. While other studies indicate widespread Holarctic effects of the LGM, our data suggest a much wider range of latitudes, extending to the tropics, where these climate change repercussions were important. As key pollinators, the inferred changes in these bee faunas may have been critical in the development of the diverse Pacific island flora. The magnitude of these responses indicates future climate change scenarios may have alarming consequences for Pacific island systems involving pollinator-dependent plant communities and agricultural crops.

Progressive disability in elderly population among tribals of Telangana: a cross sectional study.

PubMed

Katta, Ajitha; Krishna, Anil Kumar Indira; M, Bagavandas; Anegawa, Tomofumi; Munuswamy, Suresh

2017-06-19

The tribal population of Telangana, India, lives in remote and difficult conditions. This study was carried out to find out estimate, the prevalence and progression of disability in elderly population among tribals of Khammam District, Telangana state, India. A population based cross sectional survey was conducted in villages of Tribal Sub Plan area. Elderly people who are 60 years or older were chosen with a two stage sampling procedure: (1) probability proportion to size was used to select clusters and (2) in each selected cluster households were selected by systematic random sampling. The participants were interviewed with the 36 item Telugu version of the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS 2.0) questionnaire. Socio- demographic information, behavioral measurements, health and social benefit indicators were also assessed. Descriptive analytical methods were used for prevalence estimation and logistic regression was used to examine the associations of progressive age over disability among elderly. A total of 506 elderly people from 1349 households in 20 villages across 31mandals of Khammam were interviewed. Majority of elderly population among tribals were illiterate (men 88.94%; women 99.33%), used tobacco (men 81.25%; women 57.72%), consumed alcohol (men 80.77%; women 47.32%) and were hypertensive (men 53.85%; women 63.42%). The prevalence of disability was higher in women. Maximum disability in the interviewed elderly population was seen in domains of performing house hold activities, and mobility. In comparison with men, women expressed more disability for majority of domains. As age progressed, the disability for self-care domain increased to a maximum of 2.6 times in men and 6.6 times in women and for mobility domain increased to a maximum of 9.7 times in men and 7.2 times in women. Although present disability modifying mobility Assistive Devices (AD) can help elderly in overcoming disability, these are primarily designed for built environments. As the needs, cultural sensitivities, and living environment of elderly population in tribals are unique, newer innovative assistive devices should be designed and developed.

Connectivity of Tiger (Panthera tigris) Populations in the Human-Influenced Forest Mosaic of Central India

PubMed Central

Joshi, Aditya; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Mondol, Samrat; Edgaonkar, Advait; Ramakrishnan, Uma

2013-01-01

Today, most wild tigers live in small, isolated Protected Areas within human dominated landscapes in the Indian subcontinent. Future survival of tigers depends on increasing local population size, as well as maintaining connectivity between populations. While significant conservation effort has been invested in increasing tiger population size, few initiatives have focused on landscape-level connectivity and on understanding the effect different landscape elements have on maintaining connectivity. We combined individual-based genetic and landscape ecology approaches to address this issue in six protected areas with varying tiger densities and separation in the Central Indian tiger landscape. We non-invasively sampled 55 tigers from different protected areas within this landscape. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian genetic assignment tests indicate long-range tiger dispersal (on the order of 650 km) between protected areas. Further geo-spatial analyses revealed that tiger connectivity was affected by landscape elements such as human settlements, road density and host-population tiger density, but not by distance between populations. Our results elucidate the importance of landscape and habitat viability outside and between protected areas and provide a quantitative approach to test functionality of tiger corridors. We suggest future management strategies aim to minimize urban expansion between protected areas to maximize tiger connectivity. Achieving this goal in the context of ongoing urbanization and need to sustain current economic growth exerts enormous pressure on the remaining tiger habitats and emerges as a big challenge to conserve wild tigers in the Indian subcontinent. PMID:24223132

Connectivity of tiger (Panthera tigris) populations in the human-influenced forest mosaic of Central India.

PubMed

Joshi, Aditya; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Mondol, Samrat; Edgaonkar, Advait; Ramakrishnan, Uma

2013-01-01

Today, most wild tigers live in small, isolated Protected Areas within human dominated landscapes in the Indian subcontinent. Future survival of tigers depends on increasing local population size, as well as maintaining connectivity between populations. While significant conservation effort has been invested in increasing tiger population size, few initiatives have focused on landscape-level connectivity and on understanding the effect different landscape elements have on maintaining connectivity. We combined individual-based genetic and landscape ecology approaches to address this issue in six protected areas with varying tiger densities and separation in the Central Indian tiger landscape. We non-invasively sampled 55 tigers from different protected areas within this landscape. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian genetic assignment tests indicate long-range tiger dispersal (on the order of 650 km) between protected areas. Further geo-spatial analyses revealed that tiger connectivity was affected by landscape elements such as human settlements, road density and host-population tiger density, but not by distance between populations. Our results elucidate the importance of landscape and habitat viability outside and between protected areas and provide a quantitative approach to test functionality of tiger corridors. We suggest future management strategies aim to minimize urban expansion between protected areas to maximize tiger connectivity. Achieving this goal in the context of ongoing urbanization and need to sustain current economic growth exerts enormous pressure on the remaining tiger habitats and emerges as a big challenge to conserve wild tigers in the Indian subcontinent.

Examining the Prey Mass of Terrestrial and Aquatic Carnivorous Mammals: Minimum, Maximum and Range

PubMed Central

Tucker, Marlee A.; Rogers, Tracey L.

2014-01-01

Predator-prey body mass relationships are a vital part of food webs across ecosystems and provide key information for predicting the susceptibility of carnivore populations to extinction. Despite this, there has been limited research on the minimum and maximum prey size of mammalian carnivores. Without information on large-scale patterns of prey mass, we limit our understanding of predation pressure, trophic cascades and susceptibility of carnivores to decreasing prey populations. The majority of studies that examine predator-prey body mass relationships focus on either a single or a subset of mammalian species, which limits the strength of our models as well as their broader application. We examine the relationship between predator body mass and the minimum, maximum and range of their prey's body mass across 108 mammalian carnivores, from weasels to baleen whales (Carnivora and Cetacea). We test whether mammals show a positive relationship between prey and predator body mass, as in reptiles and birds, as well as examine how environment (aquatic and terrestrial) and phylogenetic relatedness play a role in this relationship. We found that phylogenetic relatedness is a strong driver of predator-prey mass patterns in carnivorous mammals and accounts for a higher proportion of variance compared with the biological drivers of body mass and environment. We show a positive predator-prey body mass pattern for terrestrial mammals as found in reptiles and birds, but no relationship for aquatic mammals. Our results will benefit our understanding of trophic interactions, the susceptibility of carnivores to population declines and the role of carnivores within ecosystems. PMID:25162695

Examining the prey mass of terrestrial and aquatic carnivorous mammals: minimum, maximum and range.

PubMed

Tucker, Marlee A; Rogers, Tracey L

2014-01-01

Predator-prey body mass relationships are a vital part of food webs across ecosystems and provide key information for predicting the susceptibility of carnivore populations to extinction. Despite this, there has been limited research on the minimum and maximum prey size of mammalian carnivores. Without information on large-scale patterns of prey mass, we limit our understanding of predation pressure, trophic cascades and susceptibility of carnivores to decreasing prey populations. The majority of studies that examine predator-prey body mass relationships focus on either a single or a subset of mammalian species, which limits the strength of our models as well as their broader application. We examine the relationship between predator body mass and the minimum, maximum and range of their prey's body mass across 108 mammalian carnivores, from weasels to baleen whales (Carnivora and Cetacea). We test whether mammals show a positive relationship between prey and predator body mass, as in reptiles and birds, as well as examine how environment (aquatic and terrestrial) and phylogenetic relatedness play a role in this relationship. We found that phylogenetic relatedness is a strong driver of predator-prey mass patterns in carnivorous mammals and accounts for a higher proportion of variance compared with the biological drivers of body mass and environment. We show a positive predator-prey body mass pattern for terrestrial mammals as found in reptiles and birds, but no relationship for aquatic mammals. Our results will benefit our understanding of trophic interactions, the susceptibility of carnivores to population declines and the role of carnivores within ecosystems.

The influence of maximum running speed on eye size: a test of Leuckart's Law in mammals.

PubMed

Heard-Booth, Amber N; Kirk, E Christopher

2012-06-01

Vertebrate eye size is influenced by many factors, including body or head size, diet, and activity pattern. Locomotor speed has also been suggested to influence eye size in a relationship known as Leuckart's Law. Leuckart's Law proposes that animals capable of achieving fast locomotor speeds require large eyes to enhance visual acuity and avoid collisions with environmental obstacles. The selective influence of rapid flight has been invoked to explain the relatively large eyes of birds, but Leuckart's Law remains untested in nonavian vertebrates. This study investigates the relationship between eye size and maximum running speed in a diverse sample of mammals. Measures of axial eye diameter, maximum running speed, and body mass were collected from the published literature for 50 species from 10 mammalian orders. This analysis reveals that absolute eye size is significantly positively correlated with maximum running speed in mammals. Moreover, the relationship between eye size and running speed remains significant when the potentially confounding effects of body mass and phylogeny are statistically controlled. The results of this analysis are therefore consistent with the expectations of Leuckart's Law and demonstrate that faster-moving mammals have larger eyes than their slower-moving close relatives. Accordingly, we conclude that maximum running speed is one of several key selective factors that have influenced the evolution of eye size in mammals. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Morphological adaptation to climate in modern Homo sapiens crania: the importance of basicranial breadth.

PubMed

Nowaczewska, Wioletta; Dabrowski, Paweł; Kuźmiński, Łukasz

2011-09-01

The aim of this study is to investigate whether the variation in breadth of the cranial base among modern human populations that inhabit different regions of the world is linked with climatic adaptation. This work provides an examination of two hypotheses. The first hypothesis is that the correlation between basicranial breadth and ambient temperature is stronger than the correlation between temperature and other neurocranial variables, such as maximum cranial breadth, maximum neurocranial length, and the endocranial volume. The second hypothesis is that the correlation between the breadth of the cranial base and the ambient temperature is significant even when other neurocranial features used in this study (including the size of the neurocranium) are constant. For the sake of this research, the necessary neurocranial variables for fourteen human populations living in diverse environments were obtained from Howells' data (except for endocranial volume which was obtained by means of estimation). The ambient temperature (more precisely, the mean yearly temperature) of the environments inhabited by these populations was used as a major climatic factor. Data were analysed using Pearson correlation coefficients, linear regression and partial correlation analyses. The results supported the two hypotheses, thus suggesting that ambient temperature may contribute to the observed differences in the breadth of the cranial base in the studied modern humans.

Variability of the occurrence frequency of solar flares as a function of peak hard X-ray rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bai, T.

1993-01-01

We study the occurrence frequency of solar flares as a function of the hard X-ray peak count rate, using observations of the Solar Maximum Mission. The size distributions are well represented by power-law distributions with negative indices. As a better alternative to the conventional method, we devise a maximum likelihood method of determining the power-law index of the size distribution. We find that the power-law index of the size distribution changes with time and with the phase of the 154-day periodicity. The size distribution is steeper during the maximum years of solar cycle 21 (1980 and 1981) than during the declining phase (1982-1984). The size distribution, however, is flatter during the maximum phase of the 154-day periodicity than during the minimum phase. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.

2008-01-01

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.

2012-01-01

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Atlantic Bluefin Tuna: A Novel Multistock Spatial Model for Assessing Population Biomass

PubMed Central

Taylor, Nathan G.; McAllister, Murdoch K.; Lawson, Gareth L.; Carruthers, Tom; Block, Barbara A.

2011-01-01

Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) is considered to be overfished, but the status of its populations has been debated, partly because of uncertainties regarding the effects of mixing on fishing grounds. A better understanding of spatial structure and mixing may help fisheries managers to successfully rebuild populations to sustainable levels while maximizing catches. We formulate a new seasonally and spatially explicit fisheries model that is fitted to conventional and electronic tag data, historic catch-at-age reconstructions, and otolith microchemistry stock-composition data to improve the capacity to assess past, current, and future population sizes of Atlantic bluefin tuna. We apply the model to estimate spatial and temporal mixing of the eastern (Mediterranean) and western (Gulf of Mexico) populations, and to reconstruct abundances from 1950 to 2008. We show that western and eastern populations have been reduced to 17% and 33%, respectively, of 1950 spawning stock biomass levels. Overfishing to below the biomass that produces maximum sustainable yield occurred in the 1960s and the late 1990s for western and eastern populations, respectively. The model predicts that mixing depends on season, ontogeny, and location, and is highest in the western Atlantic. Assuming that future catches are zero, western and eastern populations are predicted to recover to levels at maximum sustainable yield by 2025 and 2015, respectively. However, the western population will not recover with catches of 1750 and 12,900 tonnes (the “rebuilding quotas”) in the western and eastern Atlantic, respectively, with or without closures in the Gulf of Mexico. If future catches are double the rebuilding quotas, then rebuilding of both populations will be compromised. If fishing were to continue in the eastern Atlantic at the unregulated levels of 2007, both stocks would continue to decline. Since populations mix on North Atlantic foraging grounds, successful rebuilding policies will benefit from trans-Atlantic cooperation. PMID:22174745

Gauging the Nearness and Size of Cycle Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2003-01-01

A simple method for monitoring the nearness and size of conventional cycle maximum for an ongoing sunspot cycle is examined. The method uses the observed maximum daily value and the maximum monthly mean value of international sunspot number and the maximum value of the 2-mo moving average of monthly mean sunspot number to effect the estimation. For cycle 23, a maximum daily value of 246, a maximum monthly mean of 170.1, and a maximum 2-mo moving average of 148.9 were each observed in July 2000. Taken together, these values strongly suggest that conventional maximum amplitude for cycle 23 would be approx. 124.5, occurring near July 2002 +/-5 mo, very close to the now well-established conventional maximum amplitude and occurrence date for cycle 23-120.8 in April 2000.

Promoting effects on reproduction increase population vulnerability of Daphnia magna.

PubMed

Agatz, Annika; Hammers-Wirtz, Monika; Gabsi, Faten; Ratte, Hans Toni; Brown, Colin D; Preuss, Thomas G

2012-07-01

Environmental risk assessment of chemicals is based on single species tests at the individual level with single compounds. However, the protection goal is the sustainability of a population, which faces several natural stressors and mixtures of chemicals in the environment. Therefore, experiments were undertaken to quantify the combined effects of chemicals with different modes of action on Daphnia magna populations. Populations continuously exposed to dispersogen A and at abundance equilibrium were treated with a 2-d pulse of p353-nonylphenol. In previous studies, dispersogen A was shown to act as a natural info-chemical, promoting the reproduction of daphnids (higher offspring quantity) coupled with reduced offspring fitness, whereas nonylphenol in pulsed-exposure caused size-selective mortality. Dispersogen A caused accelerated population growth to maximum abundance, shifted the population structure towards smaller individuals, and increased the population sensitivity to nonylphenol. The authors showed that a positive effect observed at the individual level can be transposed to a negative effect when monitored at the population level. So far, positive effects are not addressed in environmental risk assessment, and even in higher-tier testing, population structure is not quantified. Both factors indicate a potential mismatch between protection aim and risk assessment practice. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Duplication and population dynamics shape historic patterns of selection and genetic variation at the major histocompatibility complex in rodents

PubMed Central

Winternitz, Jamie C; Wares, John P

2013-01-01

Genetic variation at the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is vitally important for wildlife populations to respond to pathogen threats. As natural populations can fluctuate greatly in size, a key issue concerns how population cycles and bottlenecks that could reduce genetic diversity will influence MHC genes. Using 454 sequencing, we characterized genetic diversity at the DRB Class II locus in montane voles (Microtus montanus), a North American rodent that regularly undergoes high-amplitude fluctuations in population size. We tested for evidence of historic balancing selection, recombination, and gene duplication to identify mechanisms maintaining allelic diversity. Counter to our expectations, we found strong evidence of purifying selection acting on the DRB locus in montane voles. We speculate that the interplay between population fluctuations and gene duplication might be responsible for the weak evidence of historic balancing selection and strong evidence of purifying selection detected. To further explore this idea, we conducted a phylogenetically controlled comparative analysis across 16 rodent species with varying demographic histories and MHC duplication events (based on the maximum number of alleles detected per individual). On the basis of phylogenetic generalized linear model-averaging, we found evidence that the estimated number of duplicated loci was positively related to allelic diversity and, surprisingly, to the strength of purifying selection at the DRB locus. Our analyses also revealed that species that had undergone population bottlenecks had lower allelic richness than stable species. This study highlights the need to consider demographic history and genetic structure alongside patterns of natural selection to understand resulting patterns of genetic variation at the MHC. PMID:23789067

Molecular insights into the historic demography of bowhead whales: understanding the evolutionary basis of contemporary management practices

PubMed Central

Phillips, C D; Hoffman, J I; George, J C; Suydam, R S; Huebinger, R M; Patton, J C; Bickham, J W

2013-01-01

Patterns of genetic variation observed within species reflect evolutionary histories that include signatures of past demography. Understanding the demographic component of species' history is fundamental to informed management because changes in effective population size affect response to environmental change and evolvability, the strength of genetic drift, and maintenance of genetic variability. Species experiencing anthropogenic population reductions provide valuable case studies for understanding the genetic response to demographic change because historic changes in the census size are often well documented. A classic example is the bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, which experienced dramatic population depletion due to commercial whaling in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Consequently, we analyzed a large multi-marker dataset of bowhead whales using a variety of analytical methods, including extended Bayesian skyline analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, to characterize genetic signatures of both ancient and contemporary demographic histories. No genetic signature of recent population depletion was recovered through any analysis incorporating realistic mutation assumptions, probably due to the combined influences of long generation time, short bottleneck duration, and the magnitude of population depletion. In contrast, a robust signal of population expansion was detected around 70,000 years ago, followed by a population decline around 15,000 years ago. The timing of these events coincides to a historic glacial period and the onset of warming at the end of the last glacial maximum, respectively. By implication, climate driven long-term variation in Arctic Ocean productivity, rather than recent anthropogenic disturbance, appears to have been the primary driver of historic bowhead whale demography. PMID:23403722

An improved maximum power point tracking method for a photovoltaic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouoba, David; Fakkar, Abderrahim; El Kouari, Youssef; Dkhichi, Fayrouz; Oukarfi, Benyounes

2016-06-01

In this paper, an improved auto-scaling variable step-size Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) method for photovoltaic (PV) system was proposed. To achieve simultaneously a fast dynamic response and stable steady-state power, a first improvement was made on the step-size scaling function of the duty cycle that controls the converter. An algorithm was secondly proposed to address wrong decision that may be made at an abrupt change of the irradiation. The proposed auto-scaling variable step-size approach was compared to some various other approaches from the literature such as: classical fixed step-size, variable step-size and a recent auto-scaling variable step-size maximum power point tracking approaches. The simulation results obtained by MATLAB/SIMULINK were given and discussed for validation.

Comparing fishers' and scientific estimates of size at maturity and maximum body size as indicators for overfishing.

PubMed

Mclean, Elizabeth L; Forrester, Graham E

2018-04-01

We tested whether fishers' local ecological knowledge (LEK) of two fish life-history parameters, size at maturity (SAM) at maximum body size (MS), was comparable to scientific estimates (SEK) of the same parameters, and whether LEK influenced fishers' perceptions of sustainability. Local ecological knowledge was documented for 82 fishers from a small-scale fishery in Samaná Bay, Dominican Republic, whereas SEK was compiled from the scientific literature. Size at maturity estimates derived from LEK and SEK overlapped for most of the 15 commonly harvested species (10 of 15). In contrast, fishers' maximum size estimates were usually lower than (eight species), or overlapped with (five species) scientific estimates. Fishers' size-based estimates of catch composition indicate greater potential for overfishing than estimates based on SEK. Fishers' estimates of size at capture relative to size at maturity suggest routine inclusion of juveniles in the catch (9 of 15 species), and fishers' estimates suggest that harvested fish are substantially smaller than maximum body size for most species (11 of 15 species). Scientific estimates also suggest that harvested fish are generally smaller than maximum body size (13 of 15), but suggest that the catch is dominated by adults for most species (9 of 15 species), and that juveniles are present in the catch for fewer species (6 of 15). Most Samaná fishers characterized the current state of their fishery as poor (73%) and as having changed for the worse over the past 20 yr (60%). Fishers stated that concern about overfishing, catching small fish, and catching immature fish contributed to these perceptions, indicating a possible influence of catch-size composition on their perceptions. Future work should test this link more explicitly because we found no evidence that the minority of fishers with more positive perceptions of their fishery reported systematically different estimates of catch-size composition than those with the more negative majority view. Although fishers' and scientific estimates of size at maturity and maximum size parameters sometimes differed, the fact that fishers make routine quantitative assessments of maturity and body size suggests potential for future collaborative monitoring efforts to generate estimates usable by scientists and meaningful to fishers. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

DNA SYNTHETIC RATES AND CHROMOSOME REPLICATION IN GENERATING MARROW CELLS,

DTIC Science & Technology

The normally dividing bone marrow cells of the domestic cat provede suitable material for the examination of DNA replication patterns in individual chromosomes. Autoradiographic studies of chromosomes labeled with tritiated thymidine indicate a direct relation of chromosome size to duration of DNA synthetic activity of the 10 hours of the S period studied. In this same period dividing cells achieved a maximum labeling of 80%. This suggests that a portion of the normally dividing cell population undergoes an arrest of considerable length in the G2 period. (Author)

Growth parameters and density variation of a queen conch, Strombus gigas (Neotaenioglossa: Strombidae), population from Xel-Ha park, a marine protected area.

PubMed

Baqueiro Cárdenas, Erick; Aldana Aranda, Dalila

2014-03-01

The queen conch, Strombus gigas, is a gastropod of commercial importance in the Caribbean. Population studies are based on size frequency analysis, using either length or weight parameters for the whole live organism. This contribution used mark-recapture data to estimate the Von Bertalanffy equation parameters and population number variation within a non harvest population from a protected area, to clarify the biometric parameters that better suit for the whole population, or for the juvenile and adult fractions. Conchs from Xel-Ha Park were monthly sampled from November 2001 to August 2005. Every conch found was measured and marked with a numbered tag that identified month and locality; and monthly abundance was estimated with Jolly's method. Length, lip thickness and weight increments were used to estimate the Von Bertalanffy growth equation parameters with Appeldoorn's subroutine of FISAT program. The population number varied through the study, with a minimum of 49 in April 2003 and maximum of 9 848 during June 2005. Conchs make only temporary use of Xel-Ha cove. Shell length gave the best fit for the juvenile fraction: L(infinity)=251, K=0.3, C=0.8 Wp=0.3; and lip thickness for adults: L(infinity)=47.78, K=0.17, C=0.1, Wp=0.86, while, the whole population was better represented by weight: L(infinity)=3850, K=0.36, C=0.8, Wp=0.3. A maximum age of 19 years was estimated from the population. Natural mortality was 0.49/year for juveniles and 0.29/year for adults. There were two pulses of recruitment: fall-winter and summer. It is concluded that population studies from length frequency data, should be analyzed independently in two groups, shell for the juvenile fraction and lip thickness for the adult fraction, or if it is not possible to analyze the population fractions separately, weight should be used to avoid miss calculation of the age structure.

Mammalian energetics. Flexible energetics of cheetah hunting strategies provide resistance against kleptoparasitism.

PubMed

Scantlebury, David M; Mills, Michael G L; Wilson, Rory P; Wilson, John W; Mills, Margaret E J; Durant, Sarah M; Bennett, Nigel C; Bradford, Peter; Marks, Nikki J; Speakman, John R

2014-10-03

Population viability is driven by individual survival, which in turn depends on individuals balancing energy budgets. As carnivores may function close to maximum sustained power outputs, decreased food availability or increased activity may render some populations energetically vulnerable. Prey theft may compromise energetic budgets of mesopredators, such as cheetahs and wild dogs, which are susceptible to competition from larger carnivores. We show that daily energy expenditure (DEE) of cheetahs was similar to size-based predictions and positively related to distance traveled. Theft at 25% only requires cheetahs to hunt for an extra 1.1 hour per day, increasing DEE by just 12%. Therefore, not all mesopredators are energetically constrained by direct competition. Other factors that increase DEE, such as those that increase travel, may be more important for population viability. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Is There a Maximum Size of Water Drops in Nature?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vollmer, Michael; Mollmann, Klaus-Peter

2013-01-01

In nature, water drops can have a large variety of sizes and shapes. Small droplets with diameters of the order of 5 to 10 µm are present in fog and clouds. This is not sufficiently large for gravity to dominate their behavior. In contrast, raindrops typically have sizes of the order of 1 mm, with observed maximum sizes in nature of around 5 mm in…

First assembly times and equilibration in stochastic coagulation-fragmentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D’Orsogna, Maria R.; Department of Mathematics, CSUN, Los Angeles, California 91330-8313; Lei, Qi

2015-07-07

We develop a fully stochastic theory for coagulation and fragmentation (CF) in a finite system with a maximum cluster size constraint. The process is modeled using a high-dimensional master equation for the probabilities of cluster configurations. For certain realizations of total mass and maximum cluster sizes, we find exact analytical results for the expected equilibrium cluster distributions. If coagulation is fast relative to fragmentation and if the total system mass is indivisible by the mass of the largest allowed cluster, we find a mean cluster-size distribution that is strikingly broader than that predicted by the corresponding mass-action equations. Combinations ofmore » total mass and maximum cluster size under which equilibration is accelerated, eluding late-stage coarsening, are also delineated. Finally, we compute the mean time it takes particles to first assemble into a maximum-sized cluster. Through careful state-space enumeration, the scaling of mean assembly times is derived for all combinations of total mass and maximum cluster size. We find that CF accelerates assembly relative to monomer kinetic only in special cases. All of our results hold in the infinite system limit and can be only derived from a high-dimensional discrete stochastic model, highlighting how classical mass-action models of self-assembly can fail.« less

Precipitation and Temperature Effects on Populations of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae): Implications for Range Expansion

PubMed Central

ALTO, BARRY W.; JULIANO, STEVEN A.

2008-01-01

We investigated how temperature and precipitation regime encountered over the life cycle of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) affects populations. Caged populations of A. albopictus were maintained at 22, 26, and 30°C. Cages were equipped with containers that served as sites for oviposition and larval development. All cages were assigned to one of three simulated precipitation regimes: (1) low fluctuation regime - water within the containers was allowed to evaporate to 90% of its maximum before being refilled, (2) high fluctuation regime - water was allowed to evaporate to 25% of its maximum before being refilled, and (3) drying regime - water was allowed to evaporate to complete container dryness before being refilled. Greater temperature and the absence of drying resulted in greater production of adults. Greater temperature in combination with drying were detrimental to adult production. These precipitation effects on adult production were absent at 22°C. Greater temperatures and drying treatments yielded higher and lower eclosion rates, respectively and, both yielded greater mortality. Development time and size of adults decreased with increased temperatures, and drying produced larger adults. Greater temperatures resulted in greater egg mortality. These results suggest that populations occurring in warmer regions are likely to produce more adults as long as containers do not dry completely. Populations in cooler regions are likely to produce fewer adults with the variability of precipitation contributing less to variation in adult production. Predicted climate change in North America is likely to extend the northern distribution of A. albopictus and to limit further its establishment in arid regions. PMID:11580037

From the Cover: Environmental and biotic controls on the evolutionary history of insect body size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clapham, Matthew E.; Karr, Jered A.

2012-07-01

Giant insects, with wingspans as large as 70 cm, ruled the Carboniferous and Permian skies. Gigantism has been linked to hyperoxic conditions because oxygen concentration is a key physiological control on body size, particularly in groups like flying insects that have high metabolic oxygen demands. Here we show, using a dataset of more than 10,500 fossil insect wing lengths, that size tracked atmospheric oxygen concentrations only for the first 150 Myr of insect evolution. The data are best explained by a model relating maximum size to atmospheric environmental oxygen concentration (pO2) until the end of the Jurassic, and then at constant sizes, independent of oxygen fluctuations, during the Cretaceous and, at a smaller size, the Cenozoic. Maximum insect size decreased even as atmospheric pO2 rose in the Early Cretaceous following the evolution and radiation of early birds, particularly as birds acquired adaptations that allowed more agile flight. A further decrease in maximum size during the Cenozoic may relate to the evolution of bats, the Cretaceous mass extinction, or further specialization of flying birds. The decoupling of insect size and atmospheric pO2 coincident with the radiation of birds suggests that biotic interactions, such as predation and competition, superseded oxygen as the most important constraint on maximum body size of the largest insects.

Change-in-ratio estimators for populations with more than two subclasses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

1991-01-01

Change-in-ratio methods have been developed to estimate the size of populations with two or three population subclasses. Most of these methods require the often unreasonable assumption of equal sampling probabilities for individuals in all subclasses. This paper presents new models based on the weaker assumption that ratios of sampling probabilities are constant over time for populations with three or more subclasses. Estimation under these models requires that a value be assumed for one of these ratios when there are two samples. Explicit expressions are given for the maximum likelihood estimators under models for two samples with three or more subclasses and for three samples with two subclasses. A numerical method using readily available statistical software is described for obtaining the estimators and their standard errors under all of the models. Likelihood ratio tests that can be used in model selection are discussed. Emphasis is on the two-sample, three-subclass models for which Monte-Carlo simulation results and an illustrative example are presented.

Preliminarily study on the maximum handling size, prey size and species selectivity of growth hormone transgenic and non-transgenic common carp Cyprinus carpio when foraging on gastropods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Tingbing; Zhang, Lihong; Zhang, Tanglin; Wang, Yaping; Hu, Wei; Olsen, Rolf Eric; Zhu, Zuoyan

2017-10-01

The present study preliminarily examined the differences in maximum handling size, prey size and species selectivity of growth hormone transgenic and non-transgenic common carp Cyprinus carpio when foraging on four gastropods species (Bellamya aeruginosa, Radix auricularia, Parafossarulus sinensis and Alocinma longicornis) under laboratory conditions. In the maximum handling size trial, five fish from each age group (1-year-old and 2-year-old) and each genotype (transgenic and non-transgenic) of common carp were individually allowed to feed on B. aeruginosa with wide shell height range. The results showed that maximum handling size increased linearly with fish length, and there was no significant difference in maximum handling size between the two genotypes. In the size selection trial, three pairs of 2-year-old transgenic and non-transgenic carp were individually allowed to feed on three size groups of B. aeruginosa. The results show that the two genotypes of C. carpio favored the small-sized group over the large-sized group. In the species selection trial, three pairs of 2-year-old transgenic and non-transgenic carp were individually allowed to feed on thin-shelled B. aeruginosa and thick-shelled R. auricularia, and five pairs of 2-year-old transgenic and non-transgenic carp were individually allowed to feed on two gastropods species (P. sinensis and A. longicornis) with similar size and shell strength. The results showed that both genotypes preferred thin-shelled Radix auricularia rather than thick-shelled B. aeruginosa, but there were no significant difference in selectivity between the two genotypes when fed on P. sinensis and A. longicornis. The present study indicates that transgenic and non-transgenic C. carpio show similar selectivity of predation on the size- and species-limited gastropods. While this information may be useful for assessing the environmental risk of transgenic carp, it does not necessarily demonstrate that transgenic common carp might have lesser environmental impacts than non-transgenic carp.

Efficient design and inference for multistage randomized trials of individualized treatment policies.

PubMed

Dawson, Ree; Lavori, Philip W

2012-01-01

Clinical demand for individualized "adaptive" treatment policies in diverse fields has spawned development of clinical trial methodology for their experimental evaluation via multistage designs, building upon methods intended for the analysis of naturalistically observed strategies. Because often there is no need to parametrically smooth multistage trial data (in contrast to observational data for adaptive strategies), it is possible to establish direct connections among different methodological approaches. We show by algebraic proof that the maximum likelihood (ML) and optimal semiparametric (SP) estimators of the population mean of the outcome of a treatment policy and its standard error are equal under certain experimental conditions. This result is used to develop a unified and efficient approach to design and inference for multistage trials of policies that adapt treatment according to discrete responses. We derive a sample size formula expressed in terms of a parametric version of the optimal SP population variance. Nonparametric (sample-based) ML estimation performed well in simulation studies, in terms of achieved power, for scenarios most likely to occur in real studies, even though sample sizes were based on the parametric formula. ML outperformed the SP estimator; differences in achieved power predominately reflected differences in their estimates of the population mean (rather than estimated standard errors). Neither methodology could mitigate the potential for overestimated sample sizes when strong nonlinearity was purposely simulated for certain discrete outcomes; however, such departures from linearity may not be an issue for many clinical contexts that make evaluation of competitive treatment policies meaningful.

An online detection system for aggregate sizes and shapes based on digital image processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jianhong; Chen, Sijia

2017-02-01

Traditional aggregate size measuring methods are time-consuming, taxing, and do not deliver online measurements. A new online detection system for determining aggregate size and shape based on a digital camera with a charge-coupled device, and subsequent digital image processing, have been developed to overcome these problems. The system captures images of aggregates while falling and flat lying. Using these data, the particle size and shape distribution can be obtained in real time. Here, we calibrate this method using standard globules. Our experiments show that the maximum particle size distribution error was only 3 wt%, while the maximum particle shape distribution error was only 2 wt% for data derived from falling aggregates, having good dispersion. In contrast, the data for flat-lying aggregates had a maximum particle size distribution error of 12 wt%, and a maximum particle shape distribution error of 10 wt%; their accuracy was clearly lower than for falling aggregates. However, they performed well for single-graded aggregates, and did not require a dispersion device. Our system is low-cost and easy to install. It can successfully achieve online detection of aggregate size and shape with good reliability, and it has great potential for aggregate quality assurance.

The Invisible Cliff: Abrupt Imposition of Malthusian Equilibrium in a Natural-Fertility, Agrarian Society

PubMed Central

Puleston, Cedric; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Winterhalder, Bruce

2014-01-01

Analysis of a natural fertility agrarian society with a multi-variate model of population ecology isolates three distinct phases of population growth following settlement of a new habitat: (1) a sometimes lengthy copial phase of surplus food production and constant vital rates; (2) a brief transition phase in which food shortages rapidly cause increased mortality and lessened fertility; and (3) a Malthusian phase of indefinite length in which vital rates and quality of life are depressed, sometimes strikingly so. Copial phase duration declines with increases in the size of the founding group, maximum life expectancy and fertility; it increases with habitat area and yield per hectare; and, it is unaffected by the sensitivity of vital rates to hunger. Transition phase duration is unaffected by size of founding population and area of settlement; it declines with yield, life expectancy, fertility and the sensitivity of vital rates to hunger. We characterize the transition phase as the Malthusian transition interval (MTI), in order to highlight how little time populations generally have to adjust. Under food-limited density dependence, the copial phase passes quickly to an equilibrium of grim Malthusian constraints, in the manner of a runner dashing over an invisible cliff. The three-phase pattern diverges from widely held intuitions based on standard Lotka-Verhulst approaches to population regulation, with implications for the analysis of socio-cultural evolution, agricultural intensification, bioarchaeological interpretation of food stress in prehistoric societies, and state-level collapse. PMID:24498131

Double-observer approach to estimating egg mass abundance of vernal pool breeding amphibians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Jung, R.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2005-01-01

Interest in seasonally flooded pools, and the status of associated amphibian populations, has initiated programs in the northeastern United States to document and monitor these habitats. Counting egg masses is an effective way to determine the population size of pool-breeding amphibians, such as wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum). However, bias is associated with counts if egg masses are missed. Counts unadjusted for the proportion missed (i.e., without adjustment for detection probability) could lead to false assessments of population trends. We used a dependent double-observer method in 2002-2003 to estimate numbers of wood frog and spotted salamander egg masses at seasonal forest pools in 13 National Wildlife Refuges, 1 National Park, 1 National Seashore, and 1 State Park in the northeastern United States. We calculated detection probabilities for egg masses and examined whether detection probabilities varied by species, observers, pools, and in relation to pool characteristics (pool area, pool maximum depth, within-pool vegetation). For the 2 years, model selection indicated that no consistent set of variables explained the variation in data sets from individual Refuges and Parks. Because our results indicated that egg mass detection probabilities vary spatially and temporally, we conclude that it is essential to use estimation procedures, such as double-observer methods with egg mass surveys, to determine population sizes and trends of these species.

Reproductive biology of the brown tree snake, Boiga irregularis (Reptilia: Colubridae), during colonization of Guam and comparison with that in their native range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savidge, J.A.; Qualls, F.J.; Rodda, G.H.

2007-01-01

Since their introduction to Guam shortly after World War II, brown tree snakes, Boiga irregularis (Merrem), have seriously impacted the biota and human population of the island. Understanding the biology of this exotic species will likely be important to the success of control programs. We compared the reproductive biology of 782 B. irregularis caught on Guam during the 1980s with results from published studies of native-range populations. Average and maximum sizes of mature snakes on Guam were larger than those from Australian populations. The majority of female brown tree snakes matured at snoutvent lengths (SVLs) of 910-1,025 mm, and most males matured at SVLs of 940-1,030 mm. on Guam. Based on growth rates from the early 1990s on Guam, sexual maturity is estimated to occur during a snake's third or fourth year. Only one female (0.3%) in our data set had oviductal eggs. Clutch size was estimated at 4.3 (SD = 2.2), based on large vitellogenic ovarian follicle (???30 mm in length) and oviductal egg counts. Unlike their Australian counterparts, the Guam population reproduced year-round. Our data offer insights into the likely reproductive patterns of brown tree snakes should they infest other islands in the Pacific region. ?? 2007 by University of Hawai'i Press. All rights reserved.

Evolution of population structure in a highly social top predator, the killer whale.

PubMed

Hoelzel, A Rus; Hey, Jody; Dahlheim, Marilyn E; Nicholson, Colin; Burkanov, Vladimir; Black, Nancy

2007-06-01

Intraspecific resource partitioning and social affiliations both have the potential to structure populations, though it is rarely possible to directly assess the impact of these mechanisms on genetic diversity and population divergence. Here, we address this for killer whales (Orcinus orca), which specialize on prey species and hunting strategy and have long-term social affiliations involving both males and females. We used genetic markers to assess the structure and demographic history of regional populations and test the hypothesis that known foraging specializations and matrifocal sociality contributed significantly to the evolution of population structure. We find genetic structure in sympatry between populations of foraging specialists (ecotypes) and evidence for isolation by distance within an ecotype. Fitting of an isolation with migration model suggested ongoing, low-level migration between regional populations (within and between ecotypes) and small effective sizes for extant local populations. The founding of local populations by matrifocal social groups was indicated by the pattern of fixed mtDNA haplotypes in regional populations. Simulations indicate that this occurred within the last 20,000 years (after the last glacial maximum). Our data indicate a key role for social and foraging behavior in the evolution of genetic structure among conspecific populations of the killer whale.

Circuit-level optimisation of a:Si TFT-based AMOLED pixel circuits for maximum hold current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foroughi, Aidin; Mehrpoo, Mohammadreza; Ashtiani, Shahin J.

2013-11-01

Design of AMOLED pixel circuits has manifold constraints and trade-offs which provides incentive for circuit designers to seek optimal solutions for different objectives. In this article, we present a discussion on the viability of an optimal solution to achieve the maximum hold current. A compact formula for component sizing in a conventional 2T1C pixel is, therefore, derived. Compared to SPICE simulation results, for several pixel sizes, our predicted optimum sizing yields maximum currents with errors less than 0.4%.

Life history and past demography maintain genetic structure, outcrossing rate, contemporary pollen gene flow of an understory herb in a highly fragmented rainforest

PubMed Central

Suárez-Montes, Pilar; Chávez-Pesqueira, Mariana

2016-01-01

Introduction Theory predicts that habitat fragmentation, by reducing population size and increasing isolation among remnant populations, can alter their genetic diversity and structure. A cascade of effects is expected: genetic drift and inbreeding after a population bottleneck, changes in biotic interactions that may affect, as in the case of plants, pollen dynamics, mating system, reproductive success. The detection of the effects of contemporary habitat fragmentation on the genetic structure of populations are conditioned by the magnitude of change, given the few number of generations since the onset of fragmentation, especially for long-lived organisms. However, the present-day genetic structure of populations may bear the signature of past demography events. Here, we examine the effects of rainforest fragmentation on the genetic diversity, population structure, mating system (outcrossing rate), indirect gene flow and contemporary pollen dynamics in the understory herb Aphelandra aurantiaca. Also, we assessed its present-day genetic structure under different past demographic scenarios. Methods Twelve populations of A. aurantiaca were sampled in large (4), medium (3), and small (5) forest fragments in the lowland tropical rainforest at Los Tuxtlas region. Variation at 11 microsatellite loci was assessed in 28–30 reproductive plants per population. In two medium- and two large-size fragments we estimated the density of reproductive plants, and the mating system by analyzing the progeny of different mother plants per population. Results Despite prevailing habitat fragmentation, populations of A. aurantiaca possess high genetic variation (He = 0.61), weak genetic structure (Rst = 0.037), and slight inbreeding in small fragments. Effective population sizes (Ne) were large, but slightly lower in small fragments. Migrants derive mostly from large and medium size fragments. Gene dispersal is highly restricted but long distance gene dispersal events were detected. Aphelandra aurantiaca shows a mixed mating system (tm = 0.81) and the outcrossing rate have not been affected by habitat fragmentation. A strong pollen pool structure was detected due to few effective pollen donors (Nep) and low distance pollen movement, pointing that most plants received pollen from close neighbors. Past demographic fluctuations may have affected the present population genetic structure as Bayesian coalescent analysis revealed the signature of past population expansion, possibly during warmer conditions after the last glacial maximum. Discussion Habitat fragmentation has not increased genetic differentiation or reduced genetic diversity of A. aurantiaca despite dozens of generations since the onset of fragmentation in the region of Los Tuxtlas. Instead, past population expansion is compatible with the lack of observed genetic structure. The predicted negative effects of rainforest fragmentation on genetic diversity and population structure of A. aurantiaca seem to have been buffered owing to its large effective populations and long-distance dispersal events. In particular, its mixed-mating system, mostly of outcrossing, suggests high efficiency of pollinators promoting connectivity and reducing inbreeding. However, some results point that the effects of fragmentation are underway, as two small fragments showed higher membership probabilities to their population of origin, suggesting genetic isolation. Our findings underscore the importance of fragment size to maintain genetic connectivity across the landscape. PMID:28028460

Games of multicellularity.

PubMed

Kaveh, Kamran; Veller, Carl; Nowak, Martin A

2016-08-21

Evolutionary game dynamics are often studied in the context of different population structures. Here we propose a new population structure that is inspired by simple multicellular life forms. In our model, cells reproduce but can stay together after reproduction. They reach complexes of a certain size, n, before producing single cells again. The cells within a complex derive payoff from an evolutionary game by interacting with each other. The reproductive rate of cells is proportional to their payoff. We consider all two-strategy games. We study deterministic evolutionary dynamics with mutations, and derive exact conditions for selection to favor one strategy over another. Our main result has the same symmetry as the well-known sigma condition, which has been proven for stochastic game dynamics and weak selection. For a maximum complex size of n=2 our result holds for any intensity of selection. For n≥3 it holds for weak selection. As specific examples we study the prisoner's dilemma and hawk-dove games. Our model advances theoretical work on multicellularity by allowing for frequency-dependent interactions within groups. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phylodynamic Analysis Revealed That Epidemic of CRF07_BC Strain in Men Who Have Sex with Men Drove Its Second Spreading Wave in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Min; Jia, Dijing; Li, Hanping; Gui, Tao; Jia, Lei; Wang, Xiaolin; Li, Tianyi; Liu, Yongjian; Bao, Zuoyi; Liu, Siyang; Zhuang, Daomin; Li, Jingyun; Li, Lin

2017-10-01

CRF07_BC was originally formed in Yunnan province of China in 1980s and spread quickly in injecting drug users (IDUs). In recent years, it has been introduced into men who have sex with men (MSM) and become the most dominant strain in China. In this study, we performed a comprehensively phylodynamic analysis of CRF07_BC sequences from China. All CRF07_BC sequences identified in China were retrieved from database. More sequences obtained in our laboratory were added to make the dataset more representative. A maximum-likelihood (ML) tree was constructed with PhyML3.0. Maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree and effective population size were predicted by using Markov Chains Monte Carlo sampling method with Beast software. A total of 610 CRF07_BC sequences coving 1,473 bp of the gag gene (from 817 to 2,289 according to HXB2 calculator) were included into the dataset. Three epidemic clusters were identified; two clusters comprised sequences from IDUs, while one cluster mainly contained sequences from MSMs. The time of the most recent common ancestor of clusters that composed of sequences from MSMs was estimated to be in 2000. Two rapid spreading waves of effective population size of CRF07_BC infections were identified in the skyline plot. The second wave coincided with the expanding of MSM cluster. The results indicated that the control of CRF07_BC infections in MSMs would help to decrease its epidemic in China.

Two disjunct Pleistocene populations and anisotropic postglacial expansion shaped the current genetic structure of the relict plant Amborella trichopoda

PubMed Central

Tournebize, Rémi; Manel, Stéphanie; Vigouroux, Yves; Munoz, François; de Kochko, Alexandre

2017-01-01

Past climate fluctuations shaped the population dynamics of organisms in space and time, and have impacted their present intra-specific genetic structure. Demo-genetic modelling allows inferring the way past demographic and migration dynamics have determined this structure. Amborella trichopoda is an emblematic relict plant endemic to New Caledonia, widely distributed in the understory of non-ultramafic rainforests. We assessed the influence of the last glacial climates on the demographic history and the paleo-distribution of 12 Amborella populations covering the whole current distribution. We performed coalescent genetic modelling of these dynamics, based on both whole-genome resequencing and microsatellite genotyping data. We found that the two main genetic groups of Amborella were shaped by the divergence of two ancestral populations during the last glacial maximum. From 12,800 years BP, the South ancestral population has expanded 6.3-fold while the size of the North population has remained stable. Recent asymmetric gene flow between the groups further contributed to the phylogeographical pattern. Spatially explicit coalescent modelling allowed us to estimate the location of ancestral populations with good accuracy (< 22 km) and provided indications regarding the mid-elevation pathways that facilitated post-glacial expansion. PMID:28820899

Killer Whale Nuclear Genome and mtDNA Reveal Widespread Population Bottleneck during the Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Moura, Andre E.; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B.; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P.J. Nico; Worley, Kim C.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Dahlheim, Marilyn E.; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-01-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline. PMID:24497033

Optimal control of multiplicative control systems arising from cancer therapy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bahrami, K.; Kim, M.

1975-01-01

This study deals with ways of curtailing the rapid growth of cancer cell populations. The performance functional that measures the size of the population at the terminal time as well as the control effort is devised. With use of the discrete maximum principle, the Hamiltonian for this problem is determined and the condition for optimal solutions are developed. The optimal strategy is shown to be a bang-bang control. It is shown that the optimal control for this problem must be on the vertices of an N-dimensional cube contained in the N-dimensional Euclidean space. An algorithm for obtaining a local minimum of the performance function in an orderly fashion is developed. Application of the algorithm to the design of antitumor drug and X-irradiation schedule is discussed.

Population structure and reproductive biology of Atlantoscia floridana (van Name, 1940) (Crustacea, Isopoda, Oniscidea) in southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araujo, Paula Beatriz; Bond-Buckup, Georgina

2005-11-01

Data were obtained on the population structure and reproduction of Atlantoscia floridana, one of the most common species of terrestrial isopods in the restinga (coastal dune) forests of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, southern Brazil. During a 19-month period, a total of 7833 individuals were sampled: 2792 males, 3400 females and 1691 mancas. There was a significant difference between the size of both males and females collected in 2000 and 2001: the mean size was smaller in the second year when individuals in the larger size classes were lacking. Population density varied with season. The minimum population was 131 ind per m 2 individuals, the maximum 1040 ind per m 2 and the mean 450 per m 2. While the overall sex ratio was clearly female biased, the operational sex ratio favored males, and showed no changes with season. Because both ovigerous and post-ovigerous females were present throughout the year, reproduction is considered continuous; however, reproduction peaked during autumn and spring. Ovigerous females were measured (CW = cephalothorax width) and the number of eggs was counted. Fecundity (F) varied from 5 to 23 eggs ( x¯ = 11.18 ± 4) per female, and was expressed by the regression F = -18.48 + 22.59 CW, with the female cephalothorax width varying from 1.04 to 1.68 mm. Marsupial mortality was only 0.9%. Egg production was 588 eggs per m 2 in spring and 660 eggs per m 2 in autumn. Recruitment occurred in all months, and eggs, embryos and marsupial mancas were also present year-round. A. floridana is the dominant species of terrestrial isopod in the study area. Its most remarkable characteristic is its high reproductive investment.

Maximum inflation of the type 1 error rate when sample size and allocation rate are adapted in a pre-planned interim look.

PubMed

Graf, Alexandra C; Bauer, Peter

2011-06-30

We calculate the maximum type 1 error rate of the pre-planned conventional fixed sample size test for comparing the means of independent normal distributions (with common known variance) which can be yielded when sample size and allocation rate to the treatment arms can be modified in an interim analysis. Thereby it is assumed that the experimenter fully exploits knowledge of the unblinded interim estimates of the treatment effects in order to maximize the conditional type 1 error rate. The 'worst-case' strategies require knowledge of the unknown common treatment effect under the null hypothesis. Although this is a rather hypothetical scenario it may be approached in practice when using a standard control treatment for which precise estimates are available from historical data. The maximum inflation of the type 1 error rate is substantially larger than derived by Proschan and Hunsberger (Biometrics 1995; 51:1315-1324) for design modifications applying balanced samples before and after the interim analysis. Corresponding upper limits for the maximum type 1 error rate are calculated for a number of situations arising from practical considerations (e.g. restricting the maximum sample size, not allowing sample size to decrease, allowing only increase in the sample size in the experimental treatment). The application is discussed for a motivating example. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantifying the entropic cost of cellular growth control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Martino, Daniele; Capuani, Fabrizio; De Martino, Andrea

2017-07-01

Viewing the ways a living cell can organize its metabolism as the phase space of a physical system, regulation can be seen as the ability to reduce the entropy of that space by selecting specific cellular configurations that are, in some sense, optimal. Here we quantify the amount of regulation required to control a cell's growth rate by a maximum-entropy approach to the space of underlying metabolic phenotypes, where a configuration corresponds to a metabolic flux pattern as described by genome-scale models. We link the mean growth rate achieved by a population of cells to the minimal amount of metabolic regulation needed to achieve it through a phase diagram that highlights how growth suppression can be as costly (in regulatory terms) as growth enhancement. Moreover, we provide an interpretation of the inverse temperature β controlling maximum-entropy distributions based on the underlying growth dynamics. Specifically, we show that the asymptotic value of β for a cell population can be expected to depend on (i) the carrying capacity of the environment, (ii) the initial size of the colony, and (iii) the probability distribution from which the inoculum was sampled. Results obtained for E. coli and human cells are found to be remarkably consistent with empirical evidence.

Using population models to evaluate management alternatives for Gulf Striped Bass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aspinwall, Alexander P.; Irwin, Elise R.; Lloyd, M. Clint

2017-01-01

Interstate management of Gulf Striped Bass Morone saxatilis has involved a thirty-year cooperative effort involving Federal and State agencies in Georgia, Florida and Alabama (Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint Gulf Striped Bass Technical Committee). The Committee has recently focused on developing an adaptive framework for conserving and restoring Gulf Striped Bass in the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint River (ACF) system. To evaluate the consequences and tradeoffs among management activities, population models were used to inform management decisions. Stochastic matrix models were constructed with varying recruitment and stocking rates to simulate effects of management alternatives on Gulf Striped Bass population objectives. An age-classified matrix model that incorporated stock fecundity estimates and survival estimates was used to project population growth rate. In addition, combinations of management alternatives (stocking rates, Hydrilla control, harvest regulations) were evaluated with respect to how they influenced Gulf Striped Bass population growth. Annual survival and mortality rates were estimated from catch-curve analysis, while fecundity was estimated and predicted using a linear least squares regression analysis of fish length versus egg number from hatchery brood fish data. Stocking rates and stocked-fish survival rates were estimated from census data. Results indicated that management alternatives could be an effective approach to increasing the Gulf Striped Bass population. Population abundance was greatest under maximum stocking effort, maximum Hydrilla control and a moratorium. Conversely, population abundance was lowest under no stocking, no Hydrilla control and the current harvest regulation. Stocking rates proved to be an effective management strategy; however, low survival estimates of stocked fish (1%) limited the potential for population growth. Hydrilla control increased the survival rate of stocked fish and provided higher estimates of population abundances than maximizing the stocking rate. A change in the current harvest regulation (50% harvest regulation) was not an effective alternative to increasing the Gulf Striped Bass population size. Applying a moratorium to the Gulf Striped Bass fishery increased survival rates from 50% to 74% and resulted in the largest population growth of the individual management alternatives. These results could be used by the Committee to inform management decisions for other populations of Striped Bass in the Gulf Region.

Estimation of Reineke and Volume-Based Maximum Size-Density Lines For Shortleaf Pine

Treesearch

Thomas B. Lynch; Robert F. Wittwer; Douglas J. Stevenson

2004-01-01

Maximum size-density relationships for Reineke's stand density index as well as for a relationship based on average tree volume were fitted to data from more than a decade of annual remeasurements of plots in unthinned naturally occurring shor tleaf pine in southeaster n Oklahoma. Reineke's stand density index is based on a maximum line of the form log(N) = a...

Sizing ocean giants: patterns of intraspecific size variation in marine megafauna

PubMed Central

Balk, Meghan A.; Benfield, Mark C.; Branch, Trevor A.; Chen, Catherine; Cosgrove, James; Dove, Alistair D.M.; Gaskins, Lindsay C.; Helm, Rebecca R.; Hochberg, Frederick G.; Lee, Frank B.; Marshall, Andrea; McMurray, Steven E.; Schanche, Caroline; Stone, Shane N.; Thaler, Andrew D.

2015-01-01

What are the greatest sizes that the largest marine megafauna obtain? This is a simple question with a difficult and complex answer. Many of the largest-sized species occur in the world’s oceans. For many of these, rarity, remoteness, and quite simply the logistics of measuring these giants has made obtaining accurate size measurements difficult. Inaccurate reports of maximum sizes run rampant through the scientific literature and popular media. Moreover, how intraspecific variation in the body sizes of these animals relates to sex, population structure, the environment, and interactions with humans remains underappreciated. Here, we review and analyze body size for 25 ocean giants ranging across the animal kingdom. For each taxon we document body size for the largest known marine species of several clades. We also analyze intraspecific variation and identify the largest known individuals for each species. Where data allows, we analyze spatial and temporal intraspecific size variation. We also provide allometric scaling equations between different size measurements as resources to other researchers. In some cases, the lack of data prevents us from fully examining these topics and instead we specifically highlight these deficiencies and the barriers that exist for data collection. Overall, we found considerable variability in intraspecific size distributions from strongly left- to strongly right-skewed. We provide several allometric equations that allow for estimation of total lengths and weights from more easily obtained measurements. In several cases, we also quantify considerable geographic variation and decreases in size likely attributed to humans. PMID:25649000

Selective pinning control of the average disease transmissibility in an HIV contact network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

du Toit, E. F.; Craig, I. K.

2015-07-01

Medication is applied to the HIV-infected nodes of high-risk contact networks with the aim of controlling the spread of disease to a predetermined maximum level. This intervention, known as pinning control, is performed both selectively and randomly in the network. These strategies are applied to 300 independent realizations per reference level of incidence on connected undirectional networks without isolated components and varying in size from 100 to 10 000 nodes per network. It is shown that a selective on-off pinning control strategy can control the networks studied with limited steady-state error and, comparing the medians of the doses from both strategies, uses 51.3% less medication than random pinning of all infected nodes. Selective pinning could possibly be used by public health specialists to identify the maximum level of HIV incidence in a population that can be achieved in a constrained funding environment.

A preliminary report on the study of the impact sites and particles of the solar maximum satellite thermal blanket

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zook, H. A.

1985-01-01

A preliminary study of the work on examination of the impact pits in, or penetrations through, the thermal blankets of the Solar Maximum Satellite is presented. The three largest pieces of the thermal blanket were optically scanned with a total surface area of about one half square meter. Over 1500 impact sites of all sizes, including 432 impacts larger than 40 microns in diameter, have been documented. Craters larger in diameter than about 100 microns found on the 75 micron thick Kapton first sheet of the main electronics box blanket are actually holes and constitute perforations through the blanket. A summary of the impact pit population that were found is given. The chemical study of these craters is only in the initial stages, with only about 250 chemical spectra of particles observed in or around impact pits or in the debris pattern being recorded.

Comparison between maximum radial expansion of ultrasound contrast agents and experimental postexcitation signal results.

PubMed

King, Daniel A; O'Brien, William D

2011-01-01

Experimental postexcitation signal data of collapsing Definity microbubbles are compared with the Marmottant theoretical model for large amplitude oscillations of ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs). After taking into account the insonifying pulse characteristics and size distribution of the population of UCAs, a good comparison between simulated results and previously measured experimental data is obtained by determining a threshold maximum radial expansion (Rmax) to indicate the onset of postexcitation. This threshold Rmax is found to range from 3.4 to 8.0 times the initial bubble radius, R0, depending on insonification frequency. These values are well above the typical free bubble inertial cavitation threshold commonly chosen at 2R0. The close agreement between the experiment and models suggests that lipid-shelled UCAs behave as unshelled bubbles during most of a large amplitude cavitation cycle, as proposed in the Marmottant equation.

The time-evolution of DCIS size distributions with applications to breast cancer growth and progression.

PubMed

Dowty, James G; Byrnes, Graham B; Gertig, Dorota M

2014-12-01

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) lesions are non-invasive tumours of the breast that are thought to precede most invasive breast cancers (IBCs). As individual DCIS lesions are initiated, grow and invade (i.e. become IBC), the size distribution of the DCIS lesions present in a given human population will evolve. We derive a differential equation governing this evolution and show, for given assumptions about growth and invasion, that there is a unique distribution which does not vary with time. Further, we show that any initial distribution converges to this stationary distribution exponentially quickly. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the stationary distribution governs the size of DCIS lesions in human populations which are relatively stable with respect to the determinants of breast cancer. Based on this assumption and the size data of 110 DCIS lesions detected in a mammographic screening programme between 1993 and 2000, we produce maximum likelihood estimates for certain growth and invasion parameters. Assuming that DCIS size is proportional to a positive power p of the time since tumour initiation, we estimate p to be 0.50 with a 95% confidence interval of (0.35, 0.71). Therefore, we estimate that DCIS lesions follow a square-root growth law and hence that they grow rapidly when small and relatively slowly when large. Our approach and results should be useful for other mathematical studies of cancer, especially those investigating biological mechanisms of invasion. © The Authors 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

Estimating the Rate of Occurrence of Renal Stones in Astronauts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, J.; Goodenow, D.; Gokoglu, S.; Kassemi, M.

2016-01-01

Changes in urine chemistry, during and post flight, potentially increases the risk of renal stones in astronauts. Although much is known about the effects of space flight on urine chemistry, no inflight incidence of renal stones in US astronauts exists and the question "How much does this risk change with space flight?" remains difficult to accurately quantify. In this discussion, we tackle this question utilizing a combination of deterministic and probabilistic modeling that implements the physics behind free stone growth and agglomeration, speciation of urine chemistry and published observations of population renal stone incidences to estimate changes in the rate of renal stone presentation. The modeling process utilizes a Population Balance Equation based model developed in the companion IWS abstract by Kassemi et al. (2016) to evaluate the maximum growth and agglomeration potential from a specified set of urine chemistry values. Changes in renal stone occurrence rates are obtained from this model in a probabilistic simulation that interrogates the range of possible urine chemistries using Monte Carlo techniques. Subsequently, each randomly sampled urine chemistry undergoes speciation analysis using the well-established Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS) code to calculate critical values, such as ionic strength and relative supersaturation. The Kassemi model utilizes this information to predict the mean and maximum stone size. We close the assessment loop by using a transfer function that estimates the rate of stone formation from combining the relative supersaturation and both the mean and maximum free stone growth sizes. The transfer function is established by a simulation analysis which combines population stone formation rates and Poisson regression. Training this transfer function requires using the output of the aforementioned assessment steps with inputs from known non-stone-former and known stone-former urine chemistries. Established in a Monte Carlo system, the entire renal stone analysis model produces a probability distribution of the stone formation rate and an expected uncertainty in the estimate. The utility of this analysis will be demonstrated by showing the change in renal stone occurrence predicted by this method using urine chemistry distributions published in Whitson et al. 2009. A comparison to the model predictions to previous assessments of renal stone risk will be used to illustrate initial validation of the model.

Effects of habitat and time of day on flock size of Turkey Vultures in Cuba (Cathartes aura).

PubMed

Tryjanowski, Piotr; Morelli, Federico

2018-01-01

In agricultural landscapes, the Turkey Vulture Cathartes aura feeds mainly on carcases of domestic animals. In spring 2017, data on 214 flocks of Turkey vultures were collected in a road survey in Cuba (in total 2384 km). Turkey Vultures were found to be common accross Cuba, but flock size varied between habitats, reaching a maximum of 43 in valleys and 31 in agricultural landscapes with domestic animal farms. Vultures were active throughout the day, but the time of day did not significantly affect flock size. This study corroborates previous studies which suggested that carrion resources located in agricultural habitats and river valleys is crucial for the continued survival of this still abundant species. Changes in Cuba's socio-political system in the near future will likely impact agricultural practices, and this in turn will likely affect Turkey Vultures. Our study may serve as a baseline against which future population changes and flocking behaviour of Turkey Vultures can be compared.

Mechanisms behind overshoots in mean cluster size profiles in aggregation-breakup processes.

PubMed

Sadegh-Vaziri, Ramiar; Ludwig, Kristin; Sundmacher, Kai; Babler, Matthaus U

2018-05-26

Aggregation and breakup of small particles in stirred suspensions often shows an overshoot in the time evolution of the mean cluster size: Starting from a suspension of primary particles the mean cluster size first increases before going through a maximum beyond which a slow relaxation sets in. Such behavior was observed in various systems, including polymeric latices, inorganic colloids, asphaltenes, proteins, and, as shown by independent experiments in this work, in the flocculation of microalgae. This work aims at investigating possible mechanism to explain this phenomenon using detailed population balance modeling that incorporates refined rate models for aggregation and breakup of small particles in turbulence. Four mechanisms are considered: (1) restructuring, (2) decay of aggregate strength, (3) deposition of large clusters, and (4) primary particle aggregation where only aggregation events between clusters and primary particles are permitted. We show that all four mechanisms can lead to an overshoot in the mean size profile, while in contrast, aggregation and breakup alone lead to a monotonic, "S"-shaped size evolution profile. In order to distinguish between the different mechanisms simple protocols based on variations of the shear rate during the aggregation-breakup process are proposed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decision on Some Policies for Stronger Development of the Implementation of Family Planning, Council of Ministers, 15 September 1986.

PubMed

1987-01-01

This document contains the text of Viet Nam's 1986 Decision on family planning policies that sought to reduce the population growth rate to 1.7% by 1990. The decision called for a maximum of 2 children per family with a 5-year space between each child. Urban women should be at least 22 years old before giving birth, and rural women should be at least 20. If a first birth consists of twins, then the family size is counted as 2. If a second birth consists of twins or triplets, the family size is still counted as 2. Incentives in the form of cash or holidays are provided to individuals practicing family planning, and families with more than 2 children must pay rent at a more expensive rate.

Strength of Virginia's 1.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-01-01

This study was undertaken to measure what, if any, differences exist in strength between mixtures made with 3/4-in (19-mm) maximum size aggregate and those made with 1/2-in (13-mm) maximum size aggregate. In order to make a comparison, a definition o...

Population structure in Japanese rice population

PubMed Central

Yamasaki, Masanori; Ideta, Osamu

2013-01-01

It is essential to elucidate genetic diversity and relationships among even related individuals and populations for plant breeding and genetic analysis. Since Japanese rice breeding has improved agronomic traits such as yield and eating quality, modern Japanese rice cultivars originated from narrow genetic resource and closely related. To resolve the population structure and genetic diversity in Japanese rice population, we used a total of 706 alleles detected by 134 simple sequence repeat markers in a total of 114 cultivars composed of 94 improved varieties and 20 landraces, which are representative and important for Japanese rice breeding. The landraces exhibit greater gene diversity than improved lines, suggesting that landraces can provide additional genetic diversity for future breeding. Model-based Bayesian clustering analysis revealed six subgroups and admixture situation in the cultivars, showing good agreement with pedigree information. This method could be superior to phylogenetic method in classifying a related population. The leading Japanese rice cultivar, Koshihikari is unique due to the specific genome constitution. We defined Japanese rice diverse sets that capture the maximum number of alleles for given sample sizes. These sets are useful for a variety of genetic application in Japanese rice cultivars. PMID:23641181

[Population and distribution of the Siberian crane (Grus leucogeranus) wintering in the Poyang lakes over the past decade].

PubMed

Shan, Ji-Hong; Ma, Jian-Zhang; Li, Yan-Kuo; Qian, Fa-Wen; Tu, Xiao-Bin

2012-08-01

Using simultaneous land surveys, we monitored the population size and spatial distribution of wintering Siberian cranes at 64 lakes around Poyang Lake between 1998 and 2010. The results showed that 46 lakes were inhabited by wintering cranes, and in 25 of those, the number of wintering cranes accounted for more than 1% of the Siberian cranes' global population. The lakes where over 40.0% of the global population, e.g. 1 280 individuals, included Dachahu Lake in Jiujiang region, and Banghu Lake and Candouhu Lake in the Poyang Lake Nature Reserve. The average yearly population of the wintering Siberian crane in the Poyang lakes was 3 108±849, with the maximum of 4 004 individuals in winter 2002. On the whole, there was no drastic fluctuation, but population numbers have shown considerable fluctuation since 2003. We also found the Poyang Lake Nature Reserve was the major wintering area of the Siberian crane, with over 60% of Siberian cranes wintering in the reserve since 2002 (except in 2006). Most of the inhabited lakes are covered in existing nature reserves, though some lakes outside the reserve were also considerably used by Siberian cranes.

Estimating abundance and density of Amur tigers along the Sino-Russian border.

PubMed

Xiao, Wenhong; Feng, Limin; Mou, Pu; Miquelle, Dale G; Hebblewhite, Mark; Goldberg, Joshua F; Robinson, Hugh S; Zhao, Xiaodan; Zhou, Bo; Wang, Tianming; Ge, Jianping

2016-07-01

As an apex predator the Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) could play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of forest ecosystems in Northeast Asia. Due to habitat loss and harvest over the past century, tigers rapidly declined in China and are now restricted to the Russian Far East and bordering habitat in nearby China. To facilitate restoration of the tiger in its historical range, reliable estimates of population size are essential to assess effectiveness of conservation interventions. Here we used camera trap data collected in Hunchun National Nature Reserve from April to June 2013 and 2014 to estimate tiger density and abundance using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods. A minimum of 8 individuals were detected in both sample periods and the documentation of marking behavior and reproduction suggests the presence of a resident population. Using Bayesian SECR modeling within the 11 400 km(2) state space, density estimates were 0.33 and 0.40 individuals/100 km(2) in 2013 and 2014, respectively, corresponding to an estimated abundance of 38 and 45 animals for this transboundary Sino-Russian population. In a maximum likelihood framework, we estimated densities of 0.30 and 0.24 individuals/100 km(2) corresponding to abundances of 34 and 27, in 2013 and 2014, respectively. These density estimates are comparable to other published estimates for resident Amur tiger populations in the Russian Far East. This study reveals promising signs of tiger recovery in Northeast China, and demonstrates the importance of connectivity between the Russian and Chinese populations for recovering tigers in Northeast China. © 2016 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

The numerical evaluation of maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions from partially identified samples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, H. F.

1976-01-01

Likelihood equations determined by the two types of samples which are necessary conditions for a maximum-likelihood estimate are considered. These equations, suggest certain successive-approximations iterative procedures for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates. These are generalized steepest ascent (deflected gradient) procedures. It is shown that, with probability 1 as N sub 0 approaches infinity (regardless of the relative sizes of N sub 0 and N sub 1, i=1,...,m), these procedures converge locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimates whenever the step size is between 0 and 2. Furthermore, the value of the step size which yields optimal local convergence rates is bounded from below by a number which always lies between 1 and 2.

75 FR 68657 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-08

... LLC To Increase the Maximum Order Size Accepted by Floor Broker Systems From 25,000,000 Shares to 99... order size accepted by Floor broker systems from 25,000,000 shares to 99,000,000 shares. The text of the... systems shall accept a maximum order size of 99,000,000, an increase from the current 25,000,000 share...

Coupling Developmental Physiology, Photoperiod, and Temperature to Model Phenology and Dynamics of an Invasive Heteropteran, Halyomorpha halys

PubMed Central

Nielsen, Anne L.; Chen, Shi; Fleischer, Shelby J.

2016-01-01

We developed an agent-based stochastic model expressing stage-specific phenology and population dynamics for an insect species across geographic regions. We used the invasive pentatomid, Halyomorpha halys, as the model organism because gaps in knowledge exist regarding its developmental physiology, it is expanding its global distribution, and it is of significant economic importance. Model predictions were compared against field observations over 3 years, and the parameter set that enables the largest population growth was applied to eight locations over 10 years, capturing the variation in temperature and photoperiod profiles of significant horticultural crop production that could be affected by H. halys in the US. As a species that overwinters as adults, critical photoperiod significantly impacted H. halys seasonality and population size through its influence on diapause termination and induction, and this may impact other insects with similar life-histories. Photoperiod and temperature interactions influenced life stage synchrony among years, resulting in an order of magnitude difference, for occurrence of key life stages. At all locations, there was a high degree of overlap among life stages and generation. Although all populations produced F2 adults and thus could be characterized as bivoltine, the size and relative contribution of each generation to the total, or overwintering, adult population also varied dramatically. In about half of the years in two locations (Geneva, NY and Salem, OR), F1 adults comprised half or more of the adult population at the end of the year. Yearly degree-day accumulation was a significant covariate influencing variation in population growth, and average maximum adult population size varied by 10-fold among locations. Average final population growth was positive (Asheville, NC, Homestead, FL, Davis, CA) or marginal (Geneva, NY, Bridgeton, NJ, Salem, OR, Riverside, CA), but was negative in one location (Wenatchee WA) due to cooler temperatures coupled with timing of vitellogenesis of F2 adults. Years of the highest population growth in the mid-Atlantic site coincided with years of highest crop damage reports. We discuss these results with respect to assumptions and critical knowledge gaps, the ability to realistically model phenology of species with strongly overlapping life stage and which diapause as adults. PMID:27242539

Sedimentary record on the Indian Summer Monsoon since the Last Glacial Maximum: Evidence from the southeastern Andaman Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Xuefa; Liu, Shengfa; Cao, Peng; Khokiattiwong, Somkiat; Kornkanitnan, Narumol

2016-04-01

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) generated by across-equatorial pressure gradient between the Asian continent and the southern Indian Ocean is a major component of the Asian monsoon system and establishes interactions among the ocean, land and atmosphere. Provenance and paleoclimate changes in the Andaman Sea during the last 26 ka were reconstructed from high-resolution records of grain-size, major elements and Sr-Nd isotopes in core ADM-9. The values of ɛNd(0) and 87Sr/86Sr were in good agreement with those of Irrawaddy River sediments, indicating a common source of origin. Two sensitive grain-size intervals (3.4-7.5 and 16.8-21.2 μm) were identified; the former was controlled primarily by sea-level change, whereas the latter was related to Irrawaddy River discharge and South-west Current transport driven by the ISM. Proxies of chemical weathering (K/Al) and terrigenous input (Ti/Ca) coupled with sensitive grain-size interval (16.8-21.2 μm population) revealed that the ISM was weak during ~15-26 ka BP and then strengthened gradually to a maximum during ~7-9 ka BP; subsequently, the ISM exhibited a generally declining trend to ~2 ka BP. The variation of the ISM recorded in this work is consistent with ISM variations observed in an open area in the northern Indian Ocean and in adjacent continents, implying the evolution of the Asia summer monsoon since 26 ka.

Three-dimensional workstation is useful for measuring the correct size of abdominal aortic aneurysm diameters.

PubMed

Ihara, Tsutomu; Komori, Kimihiro; Yamamoto, Kiyohito; Kobayashi, Masayoshi; Banno, Hiroshi; Kodama, Akio

2013-02-01

Abdominal aortic aneurysm diameter is usually measured by the maximum minor-axis diameter on axial computed tomography (CT). However, this "traditional" diameter may underestimate the real size, as the aorta is not always straight and the aneurysm shape is sometimes in the form of an ellipse along the cross section. Therefore, we measured maximum major-axis diameters using a three-dimensional (3D) workstation and compared them with the traditional maximum minor-axis diameters measured using thin-slice axial CT. CT data of 141 AAA patients (with fusiform aneurysms) were stored in a 3D workstation. These thin-slice CT images were reviewed on the 3D workstation to obtain curved multiplanar reconstruction images (CPR images). Using the CPR images, we measured the maximum major-axis and minor-axis diameters on CPR and the angle of the aneurysms to the body axis. The mean traditional maximum minor-axis diameter was 51.2 ± 8.2 mm, whereas the mean maximum major-axis diameter on CPR was 54.7 ± 10.1 mm. Sixty eight patients had a mean aneurysm size of <50 mm when measured by the traditional minor-axis diameter. Among these patients, five (7.4%) had a major-axis diameter >55 mm on CPR. The measurement of the traditional maximum minor-axis diameter of aneurysms is useful in the case of most patients. However, the traditional maximum minor-axis diameter may underestimate the real aneurysmal diameter, particularly in patients with an ellipse-shaped aneurysm. The maximum major-axis diameter as measured using CPR images is effective for representing the real aneurysmal size. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of mixing state and hygroscopicity on CCN activity of biomass burning aerosol in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez Gácita, Madeleine; Longo, Karla M.; Freire, Julliana L. M.; Freitas, Saulo R.; Martin, Scot T.

2017-02-01

Smoke aerosols prevail throughout Amazonia because of widespread biomass burning during the dry season, and external mixing, low variability in the particle size distribution and low particle hygroscopicity are typical. There can be profound effects on cloud properties. This study uses an adiabatic cloud model to simulate the activation of smoke particles as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) for three hypothetical case studies, chosen as to resemble biomass burning aerosol observations in Amazonia. The relative importance of variability in hygroscopicity, mixing state, and activation kinetics for the activated fraction and maximum supersaturation is assessed. For a population with κp = 0.04, an overestimation of the cloud droplet number concentration Nd for the three selected case studies between 22.4 ± 1.4 and 54.3 ± 3.7 % was obtained when assuming a hygroscopicity parameter κp = 0.20. Assuming internal mixing of the aerosol population led to overestimations of up to 20 % of Nd when a group of particles with medium hygroscopicity was present in the externally mixed population cases. However, the overestimations were below 10 % for external mixtures between very low and low-hygroscopicity particles, as seems to be the case for Amazon smoke particles. Kinetic limitations were significant for medium- and high-hygroscopicity particles, and much lower for very low and low-hygroscopicity particles. When particles were assumed to be at equilibrium and to respond instantly to changes in the air parcel supersaturation, the overestimation of the droplet concentration was up to ˜ 100 % in internally mixed populations, and up to ˜ 250 % in externally mixed ones, being larger for the higher values of hygroscopicity. In addition, a perceptible delay between the times when maximum supersaturation and maximum aerosol activated fraction are reached was noticed and, for aerosol populations with effective hygroscopicity κpeff higher than a certain threshold value, the delay in particle activation was such that no particles were activated at the time of maximum supersaturation. Considering internally mixed populations, for an updraft velocity W = 0.5 m s-1 this threshold of no activation varied between κpeff = 0.35 and κpeff = 0.5 for the different case studies. However, for low hygroscopicity, kinetic limitations played a weaker role for CCN activation of particles, even when taking into account the large aerosol mass and number concentrations. For the very low range of hygroscopicities, the overestimation of the droplet concentration due to the equilibrium assumption was lowest and the delay between the times when maximum supersaturation and maximum activated fraction were reached was greatly reduced or no longer observed (depending on the case study). These findings on uncertainties and sensitivities provide guidance on appropriate simplifications that can be used for modeling of smoke aerosols within general circulation models. The use of medium values of hygroscopicity representative of smoke aerosols for other biomass burning regions on Earth can lead to significant errors compared to the use of low hygroscopicity for Amazonia (between 0.05 and 0.13, according to available observations). Also in this region, consideration of the biomass burning population as internally mixed will lead to small errors in the droplet concentration, while significantly increasing the computational burden. Regardless of the large smoke aerosol loads in the region during the dry season, kinetic limitations are expected to be low.

How Much Can Remotely-Sensed Natural Resource Inventories Benefit from Finer Spatial Resolutions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Z.; Xu, Q.; McRoberts, R. E.; Ståhl, G.; Greenberg, J. A.

2017-12-01

For remote sensing facilitated natural resource inventories, the effects of spatial resolution in the form of pixel size and the effects of subpixel information on estimates of population parameters were evaluated by comparing results obtained using Landsat 8 and RapidEye auxiliary imagery. The study area was in Burkina Faso, and the variable of interest was the stem volume (m3/ha) convertible to the woodland aboveground biomass. A sample consisting of 160 field plots was selected and measured from the population following a two-stage sampling design. Models were fit using weighted least squares; the population mean, mu, and the variance of the estimator of the population mean, Var(mu.hat), were estimated in two inferential frameworks, model-based and model-assisted, and compared; for each framework, Var(mu.hat) was estimated both analytically and empirically. Empirical variances were estimated with bootstrapping that for resampling takes clustering effects into account. The primary results were twofold. First, for the effects of spatial resolution and subpixel information, four conclusions are relevant: (1) finer spatial resolution imagery indeed contributes to greater precision for estimators of population parameter, but this increase is slight at a maximum rate of 20% considering that RapidEye data are 36 times finer resolution than Landsat 8 data; (2) subpixel information on texture is marginally beneficial when it comes to making inference for population of large areas; (3) cost-effectiveness is more favorable for the free of charge Landsat 8 imagery than RapidEye imagery; and (4) for a given plot size, candidate remote sensing auxiliary datasets are more cost-effective when their spatial resolutions are similar to the plot size than with much finer alternatives. Second, for the comparison between estimators, three conclusions are relevant: (1) model-based variance estimates are consistent with each other and about half as large as stabilized model-assisted estimates, suggesting superior effectiveness of model-based inference to model-assisted inference; (2) bootstrapping is an effective alternative to analytical variance estimators; and (3) prediction accuracy expressed by RMSE is useful for screening candidate models to be used for population inferences.

Assessing allowable take of migratory birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, M.C.; Sauer, J.R.; Avery, M.L.; Blackwell, B.F.; Koneff, M.D.

2009-01-01

Legal removal of migratory birds from the wild occurs for several reasons, including subsistence, sport harvest, damage control, and the pet trade. We argue that harvest theory provides the basis for assessing the impact of authorized take, advance a simplified rendering of harvest theory known as potential biological removal as a useful starting point for assessing take, and demonstrate this approach with a case study of depredation control of black vultures (Coragyps atratus) in Virginia, USA. Based on data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and other sources, we estimated that the black vulture population in Virginia was 91,190 (95% credible interval = 44,520?212,100) in 2006. Using a simple population model and available estimates of life-history parameters, we estimated the intrinsic rate of growth (rmax) to be in the range 7?14%, with 10.6% a plausible point estimate. For a take program to seek an equilibrium population size on the conservative side of the yield curve, the rate of take needs to be less than that which achieves a maximum sustained yield (0.5 x rmax). Based on the point estimate for rmax and using the lower 60% credible interval for population size to account for uncertainty, these conditions would be met if the take of black vultures in Virginia in 2006 was < 3,533 birds. Based on regular monitoring data, allowable harvest should be adjusted annually to reflect changes in population size. To initiate discussion about how this assessment framework could be related to the laws and regulations that govern authorization of such take, we suggest that the Migratory Bird Treaty Act requires only that take of native migratory birds be sustainable in the long-term, that is, sustained harvest rate should be < rmax. Further, the ratio of desired harvest rate to 0.5 x rmax may be a useful metric for ascertaining the applicability of specific requirements of the National Environmental Protection Act.

Population genetics inference for longitudinally-sampled mutants under strong selection.

PubMed

Lacerda, Miguel; Seoighe, Cathal

2014-11-01

Longitudinal allele frequency data are becoming increasingly prevalent. Such samples permit statistical inference of the population genetics parameters that influence the fate of mutant variants. To infer these parameters by maximum likelihood, the mutant frequency is often assumed to evolve according to the Wright-Fisher model. For computational reasons, this discrete model is commonly approximated by a diffusion process that requires the assumption that the forces of natural selection and mutation are weak. This assumption is not always appropriate. For example, mutations that impart drug resistance in pathogens may evolve under strong selective pressure. Here, we present an alternative approximation to the mutant-frequency distribution that does not make any assumptions about the magnitude of selection or mutation and is much more computationally efficient than the standard diffusion approximation. Simulation studies are used to compare the performance of our method to that of the Wright-Fisher and Gaussian diffusion approximations. For large populations, our method is found to provide a much better approximation to the mutant-frequency distribution when selection is strong, while all three methods perform comparably when selection is weak. Importantly, maximum-likelihood estimates of the selection coefficient are severely attenuated when selection is strong under the two diffusion models, but not when our method is used. This is further demonstrated with an application to mutant-frequency data from an experimental study of bacteriophage evolution. We therefore recommend our method for estimating the selection coefficient when the effective population size is too large to utilize the discrete Wright-Fisher model. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

Quartz c-axis orientation patterns in fracture cement as a measure of fracture opening rate and a validation tool for fracture pattern models

DOE PAGES

Ukar, Estibalitz; Laubach, Stephen E.; Marrett, Randall

2016-03-09

Here, we evaluate a published model for crystal growth patterns in quartz cement in sandstone fractures by comparing crystal fracture-spanning predictions to quartz c-axis orientation distributions measured by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) of spanning quartz deposits. Samples from eight subvertical opening-mode fractures in four sandstone formations, the Jurassic– Cretaceous Nikanassin Formation, northwestern Alberta Foothills (Canada), Cretaceous Mesaverde Group (USA; Cozzette Sandstone Member of the Iles Formation), Piceance Basin, Colorado (USA), and upper Jurassic–lower Cretaceous Cotton Valley Group (Taylor sandstone) and overlying Travis Peak Formation, east Texas, have similar quartzose composition and grain size but contain fractures with different temperature historiesmore » and opening rates based on fluid inclusion assemblages and burial history. Spherical statistical analysis shows that, in agreement with model predictions, bridging crystals have a preferred orientation with c-axis orientations at a high angle to fracture walls. The second form of validation is for spanning potential that depends on the size of cut substrate grains. Using measured cut substrate grain sizes and c-axis orientations of spanning bridges, we calculated the required orientation for the smallest cut grain to span the maximum gap size and the required orientation of the crystal with the least spanning potential to form overgrowths that span across maximum measured gap sizes. We find that within a 10° error all spanning crystals conform to model predictions. Using crystals with the lowest spanning potential based on crystallographic orientation (c-axis parallel to fracture wall) and a temperature range for fracture opening measured from fluid inclusion assemblages, we calculate maximum fracture opening rates that allow crystals to span. These rates are comparable to those derived independently from fracture temperature histories based on burial history and multiple sequential fluid inclusion assemblages. Results support the R. Lander and S. Laubach model, which predicts that for quartz deposited synchronously with fracture opening, spanning potential, or likelihood of quartz deposits that are thick enough to span between fracture walls, depends on temperature history, fracture opening rate, size of opening increments, and size, mineralogy, and crystallographic orientation of substrates in the fracture wall (transected grains). Results suggest that EBSD maps, which can be more rapidly acquired than measurement of tens to hundreds of fluid inclusion assemblages, can provide a useful measure of relative opening rates within populations of quartz-filled fractures formed under sedimentary basin conditions. Such data are useful for evaluating fracture pattern development models.« less

Quartz c-axis orientation patterns in fracture cement as a measure of fracture opening rate and a validation tool for fracture pattern models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ukar, Estibalitz; Laubach, Stephen E.; Marrett, Randall

Here, we evaluate a published model for crystal growth patterns in quartz cement in sandstone fractures by comparing crystal fracture-spanning predictions to quartz c-axis orientation distributions measured by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) of spanning quartz deposits. Samples from eight subvertical opening-mode fractures in four sandstone formations, the Jurassic– Cretaceous Nikanassin Formation, northwestern Alberta Foothills (Canada), Cretaceous Mesaverde Group (USA; Cozzette Sandstone Member of the Iles Formation), Piceance Basin, Colorado (USA), and upper Jurassic–lower Cretaceous Cotton Valley Group (Taylor sandstone) and overlying Travis Peak Formation, east Texas, have similar quartzose composition and grain size but contain fractures with different temperature historiesmore » and opening rates based on fluid inclusion assemblages and burial history. Spherical statistical analysis shows that, in agreement with model predictions, bridging crystals have a preferred orientation with c-axis orientations at a high angle to fracture walls. The second form of validation is for spanning potential that depends on the size of cut substrate grains. Using measured cut substrate grain sizes and c-axis orientations of spanning bridges, we calculated the required orientation for the smallest cut grain to span the maximum gap size and the required orientation of the crystal with the least spanning potential to form overgrowths that span across maximum measured gap sizes. We find that within a 10° error all spanning crystals conform to model predictions. Using crystals with the lowest spanning potential based on crystallographic orientation (c-axis parallel to fracture wall) and a temperature range for fracture opening measured from fluid inclusion assemblages, we calculate maximum fracture opening rates that allow crystals to span. These rates are comparable to those derived independently from fracture temperature histories based on burial history and multiple sequential fluid inclusion assemblages. Results support the R. Lander and S. Laubach model, which predicts that for quartz deposited synchronously with fracture opening, spanning potential, or likelihood of quartz deposits that are thick enough to span between fracture walls, depends on temperature history, fracture opening rate, size of opening increments, and size, mineralogy, and crystallographic orientation of substrates in the fracture wall (transected grains). Results suggest that EBSD maps, which can be more rapidly acquired than measurement of tens to hundreds of fluid inclusion assemblages, can provide a useful measure of relative opening rates within populations of quartz-filled fractures formed under sedimentary basin conditions. Such data are useful for evaluating fracture pattern development models.« less

An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

1978-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of obtaining numerically maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions. In recent literature, a certain successive-approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, was shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, we introduce a general iterative procedure, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. We show that, with probability 1 as the sample size grows large, this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. We also show that the step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the 'separation' of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.

An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions, 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

1976-01-01

The problem of obtaining numerically maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions is addressed. In recent literature, a certain successive approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, is shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, a general iterative procedure is introduced, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. With probability 1 as the sample size grows large, it is shown that this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. The step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the separation of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.

Using a genetic mixture model to study phenotypic traits: Differential fecundity among Yukon river Chinook Salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; Evenson, D.F.; McLain, T.H.; Flannery, B.G.

2011-01-01

Fecundity is a vital population characteristic that is directly linked to the productivity of fish populations. Historic data from Yukon River (Alaska) Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha suggest that length‐adjusted fecundity differs among populations within the drainage and either is temporally variable or has declined. Yukon River Chinook salmon have been harvested in large‐mesh gill‐net fisheries for decades, and a decline in fecundity was considered a potential evolutionary response to size‐selective exploitation. The implications for fishery conservation and management led us to further investigate the fecundity of Yukon River Chinook salmon populations. Matched observations of fecundity, length, and genotype were collected from a sample of adult females captured from the multipopulation spawning migration near the mouth of the Yukon River in 2008. These data were modeled by using a new mixture model, which was developed by extending the conditional maximum likelihood mixture model that is commonly used to estimate the composition of multipopulation mixtures based on genetic data. The new model facilitates maximum likelihood estimation of stock‐specific fecundity parameters without first using individual assignment to a putative population of origin, thus avoiding potential biases caused by assignment error. The hypothesis that fecundity of Chinook salmon has declined was not supported; this result implies that fecundity exhibits high interannual variability. However, length‐adjusted fecundity estimates decreased as migratory distance increased, and fecundity was more strongly dependent on fish size for populations spawning in the middle and upper portions of the drainage. These findings provide insights into potential constraints on reproductive investment imposed by long migrations and warrant consideration in fisheries management and conservation. The new mixture model extends the utility of genetic markers to new applications and can be easily adapted to study any observable trait or condition that may vary among populations.

Destruction of a Holothuria scabra population by overfishing at Abu Rhamada Island in the Red Sea.

PubMed

Hasan, Mohamed Hamza

2005-10-01

Populations of Holothuria scabra at Abu Rhamada Island were investigated during 52 months, from July 1999 to October 2003. During the first 23 months (July, 1999-May, 2001) the Island had a robust population with a tri-modal size frequency distribution curve, very high densities (85.7-95.1 ind./100 m2 at the sandy habitat), high abundance (3362-3110 individuals) and biomass (46.7-34.3 kg/100 m2). Also, during this period most individuals were at depths between 4 and 6m and no individuals were recorded deeper than 15m. The population declined after harvesting began (June, 2001) and by March, 2002 the size frequency distribution showed a bimodal pattern with an obvious decrease in abundance of large individuals. There was also a slight reduction in densities (73.2-60.1 ind./100 m2 at the sandy habitat), abundance (2292-1682 individuals) and biomass (21.6-11.3 kg/100 m2), and a marked shift towards deeper waters. Overfishing reached its maximum during the final 19 months of the study, and by October, 2003, density (30.7-0.4 ind./100 m2 at the sandy habitat), abundance (802-10 individuals) and biomass (6.9-0.1 kg/100 m2) were all greatly reduced. The size frequency distribution of the population became unimodal, large animals disappeared and no recruits were seen. During this period, individuals were found at very deep depths (30 to >40 m). The study also showed that sandy substrate was the preferred habitat for H. scabra, accommodating the largest number of individuals. The population of H. scabra at Abu Rhamada Island was found to spawn biannually from 1999 to 2001, then only once during 2002 when high fishing pressure occurred, and ceased completely in 2003. The sex ratio was not significantly different from 1:1 before fishing begun, but shifted to an increasing male bias reaching 93% males by January 2003. None of the small animals remaining after January, 2003 could be sexed. Size at sexual maturity decreased from prefishing (185 mm for females and 160 mm for males) to 155 mm for females and 125 mm for males in January 2003. There was a positive relationship between fecundity and size. And oocyte/female was highest in 1999 (0.73-1.7 million) and 2000 (0.75-1.72 million), decreased during 2001 (0.2-0.85 million) to reach its minimum at 2002 (0.28-0.29 million).

Maximum plant height and the biophysical factors that limit it.

PubMed

Niklas, Karl J

2007-03-01

Basic engineering theory and empirically determined allometric relationships for the biomass partitioning patterns of extant tree-sized plants show that the mechanical requirements for vertical growth do not impose intrinsic limits on the maximum heights that can be reached by species with woody, self-supporting stems. This implies that maximum tree height is constrained by other factors, among which hydraulic constraints are plausible. A review of the available information on scaling relationships observed for large tree-sized plants, nevertheless, indicates that mechanical and hydraulic requirements impose dual restraints on plant height and thus, may play equally (but differentially) important roles during the growth of arborescent, large-sized species. It may be the case that adaptations to mechanical and hydraulic phenomena have optimized growth, survival and reproductive success rather than longevity and mature size.

Estimating landscape carrying capacity through maximum clique analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donovan, Therese; Warrington, Greg; Schwenk, W. Scott; Dinitz, Jeffrey H.

2012-01-01

Habitat suitability (HS) maps are widely used tools in wildlife science and establish a link between wildlife populations and landscape pattern. Although HS maps spatially depict the distribution of optimal resources for a species, they do not reveal the population size a landscape is capable of supporting--information that is often crucial for decision makers and managers. We used a new approach, "maximum clique analysis," to demonstrate how HS maps for territorial species can be used to estimate the carrying capacity, N(k), of a given landscape. We estimated the N(k) of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus) and bobcats (Lynx rufus) in an 1153-km2 study area in Vermont, USA. These two species were selected to highlight different approaches in building an HS map as well as computational challenges that can arise in a maximum clique analysis. We derived 30-m2 HS maps for each species via occupancy modeling (Ovenbird) and by resource utilization modeling (bobcats). For each species, we then identified all pixel locations on the map (points) that had sufficient resources in the surrounding area to maintain a home range (termed a "pseudo-home range"). These locations were converted to a mathematical graph, where any two points were linked if two pseudo-home ranges could exist on the landscape without violating territory boundaries. We used the program Cliquer to find the maximum clique of each graph. The resulting estimates of N(k) = 236 Ovenbirds and N(k) = 42 female bobcats were sensitive to different assumptions and model inputs. Estimates of N(k) via alternative, ad hoc methods were 1.4 to > 30 times greater than the maximum clique estimate, suggesting that the alternative results may be upwardly biased. The maximum clique analysis was computationally intensive but could handle problems with < 1500 total pseudo-home ranges (points). Given present computational constraints, it is best suited for species that occur in clustered distributions (where the problem can be broken into several, smaller problems), or for species with large home ranges relative to grid scale where resampling the points to a coarser resolution can reduce the problem to manageable proportions.

50 CFR 403.02 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... largest supportable within the ecosystem to the population level that results in maximum net productivity. Maximum net productivity is the greatest net annual increment in population numbers or biomass resulting...

Bicriteria Network Optimization Problem using Priority-based Genetic Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gen, Mitsuo; Lin, Lin; Cheng, Runwei

Network optimization is being an increasingly important and fundamental issue in the fields such as engineering, computer science, operations research, transportation, telecommunication, decision support systems, manufacturing, and airline scheduling. In many applications, however, there are several criteria associated with traversing each edge of a network. For example, cost and flow measures are both important in the networks. As a result, there has been recent interest in solving Bicriteria Network Optimization Problem. The Bicriteria Network Optimization Problem is known a NP-hard. The efficient set of paths may be very large, possibly exponential in size. Thus the computational effort required to solve it can increase exponentially with the problem size in the worst case. In this paper, we propose a genetic algorithm (GA) approach used a priority-based chromosome for solving the bicriteria network optimization problem including maximum flow (MXF) model and minimum cost flow (MCF) model. The objective is to find the set of Pareto optimal solutions that give possible maximum flow with minimum cost. This paper also combines Adaptive Weight Approach (AWA) that utilizes some useful information from the current population to readjust weights for obtaining a search pressure toward a positive ideal point. Computer simulations show the several numerical experiments by using some difficult-to-solve network design problems, and show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Metapopulation dynamics and total biomass: Understanding the effects of diffusion in complex networks.

PubMed

Ruiz-Herrera, Alfonso

2018-05-01

In this study, I explored the impact of constructing a new dispersal route between two different patches in a metapopulation. My results indicated that its success/failure on the population abundance greatly depends on the patches directly involved and negligibly on the network topology. Specifically, constructing a dispersal route is highly recommended if it connects a source to a source that is close to becoming a sink or a sink that is close to becoming a source. This biological property is the basis for understanding the influence of the network topology on the population abundance. According to some thresholds discussed in this manuscript, I identified when a given route has a positive or negative effect on the population size. Consequently, as a simple rule of thumb, managers should look for metapopulations that have the maximum (resp. minimum) number paths with a positive (resp. negative) effect on the population abundance. As emphasized, the biological results of this paper do not depend on the model formulation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Equivalence of truncated count mixture distributions and mixtures of truncated count distributions.

PubMed

Böhning, Dankmar; Kuhnert, Ronny

2006-12-01

This article is about modeling count data with zero truncation. A parametric count density family is considered. The truncated mixture of densities from this family is different from the mixture of truncated densities from the same family. Whereas the former model is more natural to formulate and to interpret, the latter model is theoretically easier to treat. It is shown that for any mixing distribution leading to a truncated mixture, a (usually different) mixing distribution can be found so that the associated mixture of truncated densities equals the truncated mixture, and vice versa. This implies that the likelihood surfaces for both situations agree, and in this sense both models are equivalent. Zero-truncated count data models are used frequently in the capture-recapture setting to estimate population size, and it can be shown that the two Horvitz-Thompson estimators, associated with the two models, agree. In particular, it is possible to achieve strong results for mixtures of truncated Poisson densities, including reliable, global construction of the unique NPMLE (nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator) of the mixing distribution, implying a unique estimator for the population size. The benefit of these results lies in the fact that it is valid to work with the mixture of truncated count densities, which is less appealing for the practitioner but theoretically easier. Mixtures of truncated count densities form a convex linear model, for which a developed theory exists, including global maximum likelihood theory as well as algorithmic approaches. Once the problem has been solved in this class, it might readily be transformed back to the original problem by means of an explicitly given mapping. Applications of these ideas are given, particularly in the case of the truncated Poisson family.

The simulation of the outer Oort cloud formation. The first giga-year of the evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dybczyński, P. A.; Leto, G.; Jakubík, M.; Paulech, T.; Neslušan, L.

2008-08-01

Aims: Considering a model of an initial disk of planetesimals that consists of 10 038 test particles, we simulate the formation of distant-comet reservoirs for the first 1 Gyr. Since only the outer part of the Oort cloud can be formed within this period, we analyse the efficiency of the formation process and describe approximately the structure of the part formed. Methods: The dynamical evolution of the particles is followed by numerical integration of their orbits. We consider the perturbations by four giant planets on their current orbits and with their current masses, in addition to perturbations by the Galactic tide and passing stars. Results: In our simulation, the population size of the outer Oort cloud reaches its maximum value at about 210 Myr. After a subsequent, rapid decrease, it becomes almost stable (with only a moderate decrease) from about 500 Myr. At 1 Gyr, the population size decreases to about 40% of its maximum value. The efficiency of the formation is low. Only about 0.3% of the particles studied still reside in the outer Oort cloud after 1 Gyr. The space density of particles in the comet cloud, beyond the heliocentric distance, r, of 25 000 AU is proportional to r-s, where s = 4.08 ± 0.34. From about 50 Myr to the end of the simulation, the orbits of the Oort cloud comets are not distributed randomly, but high galactic inclinations of the orbital planes are strongly dominant. Among all of the outer perturbers considered, this is most likely caused by the dominant, disk component of the Galactic tide. Movies (cf. caption to Fig. 1) are only available at http://www.aanda.org

A function accounting for training set size and marker density to model the average accuracy of genomic prediction.

PubMed

Erbe, Malena; Gredler, Birgit; Seefried, Franz Reinhold; Bapst, Beat; Simianer, Henner

2013-01-01

Prediction of genomic breeding values is of major practical relevance in dairy cattle breeding. Deterministic equations have been suggested to predict the accuracy of genomic breeding values in a given design which are based on training set size, reliability of phenotypes, and the number of independent chromosome segments ([Formula: see text]). The aim of our study was to find a general deterministic equation for the average accuracy of genomic breeding values that also accounts for marker density and can be fitted empirically. Two data sets of 5'698 Holstein Friesian bulls genotyped with 50 K SNPs and 1'332 Brown Swiss bulls genotyped with 50 K SNPs and imputed to ∼600 K SNPs were available. Different k-fold (k = 2-10, 15, 20) cross-validation scenarios (50 replicates, random assignment) were performed using a genomic BLUP approach. A maximum likelihood approach was used to estimate the parameters of different prediction equations. The highest likelihood was obtained when using a modified form of the deterministic equation of Daetwyler et al. (2010), augmented by a weighting factor (w) based on the assumption that the maximum achievable accuracy is [Formula: see text]. The proportion of genetic variance captured by the complete SNP sets ([Formula: see text]) was 0.76 to 0.82 for Holstein Friesian and 0.72 to 0.75 for Brown Swiss. When modifying the number of SNPs, w was found to be proportional to the log of the marker density up to a limit which is population and trait specific and was found to be reached with ∼20'000 SNPs in the Brown Swiss population studied.

Weather radar data correlate to hail-induced mortality in grassland birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carver, Amber; Ross, Jeremy D.; Augustine, David J.; Skagen, Susan K.; Dwyer, Angela M.; Tomback, Diana F.; Wunder, Michael B.

2017-01-01

Small-bodied terrestrial animals such as songbirds (Order Passeriformes) are especially vulnerable to hail-induced mortality; yet, hail events are challenging to predict, and they often occur in locations where populations are not being studied. Focusing on nesting grassland songbirds, we demonstrate a novel approach to estimate hail-induced mortality. We quantify the relationship between the probability of nests destroyed by hail and measured Level-III Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) data, including atmospheric base reflectivity, maximum estimated size of hail and maximum estimated azimuthal wind shear. On 22 June 2014, a hailstorm in northern Colorado destroyed 102 out of 203 known nests within our research site. Lark bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) nests comprised most of the sample (n = 186). Destroyed nests were more likely to be found in areas of higher storm intensity, and distributions of NEXRAD variables differed between failed and surviving nests. For 133 ground nests where nest-site vegetation was measured, we examined the ameliorative influence of woody vegetation, nest cover and vegetation density by comparing results for 13 different logistic regression models incorporating the independent and additive effects of weather and vegetation variables. The most parsimonious model used only the interactive effect of hail size and wind shear to predict the probability of nest survival, and the data provided no support for any of the models without this predictor. We conclude that vegetation structure may not mitigate mortality from severe hailstorms and that weather radar products can be used remotely to estimate potential for hail mortality of nesting grassland birds. These insights will improve the efficacy of grassland bird population models under predicted climate change scenarios.

Biodiversity and body size are linked across metazoans

PubMed Central

McClain, Craig R.; Boyer, Alison G.

2009-01-01

Body size variation across the Metazoa is immense, encompassing 17 orders of magnitude in biovolume. Factors driving this extreme diversification in size and the consequences of size variation for biological processes remain poorly resolved. Species diversity is invoked as both a predictor and a result of size variation, and theory predicts a strong correlation between the two. However, evidence has been presented both supporting and contradicting such a relationship. Here, we use a new comprehensive dataset for maximum and minimum body sizes across all metazoan phyla to show that species diversity is strongly correlated with minimum size, maximum size and consequently intra-phylum variation. Similar patterns are also observed within birds and mammals. The observations point to several fundamental linkages between species diversification and body size variation through the evolution of animal life. PMID:19324730

Small size transformer provides high power regulation with low ripple and maximum control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manoli, R.; Ulrich, B. R.

1971-01-01

Single, variable, transformer/choke device does work of several. Technique reduces drawer assembly physical size and design and manufacturing cost. Device provides power, voltage current and impedance regulation while maintaining maximum control of linearity and ensuring extremely low ripple. Nulling is controlled to very fine degree.

Reproductive traits of tropical deep-water pandalid shrimps ( Heterocarpus ensifer) from the SW Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briones-Fourzán, Patricia; Barradas-Ortíz, Cecilia; Negrete-Soto, Fernando; Lozano-Álvarez, Enrique

2010-08-01

Heterocarpus ensifer is a tropical deep-water pandalid shrimp whose reproductive features are poorly known. We examined reproductive traits of a population of H. ensifer inhabiting the continental slope (311-715 m in depth) off the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico (SW Gulf of Mexico). Size range of the total sample ( n=816) was 10.4-38.9 mm carapace length. Females grow larger than males, but both sexes mature at 57% of their maximum theoretical size and at ˜30% of their total lifespan. Among adult females, the proportion of ovigerous females was high in all seasons, indicating year-round reproduction. Most females carrying embryos in advanced stages of development had ovaries in advanced stages of maturation, indicating production of successive spawns. In the autumn, however, the proportion of ovigerous females and the condition index of these females were lower compared to other seasons. This pattern potentially reflects a reduction in food resources following the summer minimum in particulate organic carbon flux to the deep benthos, as reported in previous studies. Spawns consisting of large numbers (16024±5644, mean±SD) of small eggs (0.045±0.009 mm 3) are consistent with extended planktotrophic larval development, an uncommon feature in deep-water carideans. Egg number increased as a power function of female size but with substantial variability, and egg size varied widely within and between females. There was no apparent trade-off between egg number and egg size and neither of these two variables was influenced by female condition. These results indicate iteroparity and a high and variable reproductive effort, reflecting a reproductive strategy developed to compensate for high larval mortality. The present study provides a baseline to compare reproductive traits between Atlantic populations of this tropical deep-water pandalid.

Inbreeding and reproduction in endangered ungulates: preservation of genetic variation through the Organization of Genetic Resource Banks.

PubMed

Roldan, E R S; Gomendio, M; Garde, J J; Espeso, G; Ledda, S; Berlinguer, F; del Olmo, A; Soler, A J; Arregui, L; Crespo, C; González, R

2006-10-01

There is a constant increase in the number of species suffering marked reductions in population size. This reduction in size and the lack of genetic flow may lead to a decrease in genetic variability and to matings between close relatives (i.e. inbreeding) with an ensuing reduction in fitness. It is thus important to understand the mechanism underlying the deleterious effects of inbreeding and to develop reproductive biotechnologies that will allow the reduction of inbreeding depression by facilitating gene exchange between populations. The study of three endangered species of gazelles, Cuvier's gazelle (Gazella cuvieri), Mohor gazelle (Gazella dama mhorr) and dorcas gazelle (Gazella dorcas neglecta) has revealed that inbreeding negatively affects several semen parameters (motility, sperm morphology, acrosome integrity). Semen cryopreservation has been achieved in the three species but success varies depending on the diluent employed and the level of inbreeding. Artificial insemination of Mohor gazelles have led to the birth of the first gazelle born using frozen-thawed semen but improvements are needed before this technology can be applied on a routine basis for the genetic management of the populations. Collection of oocytes after ovarian stimulation, followed by in vitro maturation, fertilization and culture has met with some initial success in the Mohor gazelle. These, together with other reproductive technologies, will offer an invaluable help in preserving the maximum of genetic diversity of these and related endangered ungulate species.

Constraints on the frequency-magnitude relation and maximum magnitudes in the UK from observed seismicity and glacio-isostatic recovery rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Main, Ian; Irving, Duncan; Musson, Roger; Reading, Anya

1999-05-01

Earthquake populations have recently been shown to have many similarities with critical-point phenomena, with fractal scaling of source sizes (energy or seismic moment) corresponding to the observed Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) frequency-magnitude law holding at low magnitudes. At high magnitudes, the form of the distribution depends on the seismic moment release rate Msolar and the maximum magnitude m_max . The G-R law requires a sharp truncation at an absolute maximum magnitude for finite Msolar. In contrast, the gamma distribution has an exponential tail which allows a soft or `credible' maximum to be determined by negligible contribution to the total seismic moment release. Here we apply both distributions to seismic hazard in the mainland UK and its immediate continental shelf, constrained by a mixture of instrumental, historical and neotectonic data. Tectonic moment release rates for the seismogenic part of the lithosphere are calculated from a flexural-plate model for glacio-isostatic recovery, constrained by vertical deformation rates from tide-gauge and geomorphological data. Earthquake focal mechanisms in the UK show near-vertical strike-slip faulting, with implied directions of maximum compressive stress approximately in the NNW-SSE direction, consistent with the tectonic model. Maximum magnitudes are found to be in the range 6.3-7.5 for the G-R law, or 7.0-8.2 m_L for the gamma distribution, which compare with a maximum observed in the time period of interest of 6.1 m_L . The upper bounds are conservative estimates, based on 100 per cent seismic release of the observed vertical neotectonic deformation. Glacio-isostatic recovery is predominantly an elastic rather than a seismic process, so the true value of m_max is likely to be nearer the lower end of the quoted range.

How many Laysan Teal Anas laysanensis are on Midway Atoll? Methods for monitoring abundance after reintroduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Michelle H.; Courtot, Karen; Hatfield, Jeffrey

2017-01-01

Wildlife managers often request a simple approach to monitor the status of species of concern. In response to that need, we used eight years of monitoring data to estimate population size and test the validity of an index for monitoring accurately the abundance of reintroduced, endangered Laysan Teal Anas laysanensis. The population was established at Midway Atoll in the Hawaiian archipelago after 42 wild birds were translocated from Laysan Island during 2004–2005. We fitted 587 birds with unique markers during 2004–2015, recorded 21,309 sightings until March 2016, and conducted standardised survey counts during 2007–2015. A modified Lincoln-Petersen mark-resight estimator and ANCOVA models were used to test the relationship between survey counts, seasonal detectability, and population abundance. Differences were found between the breeding and non-breeding seasons in detection and how maximum counts recorded related to population estimates. The results showed strong, positive correlations between the seasonal maximum counts and population estimates. The ANCOVA models supported the use of standardised bi-monthly counts of unmarked birds as a valid index to monitor trends among years within a season at Midway Atoll. The translocated population increased to 661 adult and juvenile birds (95% CI = 608–714) by 2010, then declined by 38% between 2010 and 2012 after the Toˉhoku Japan earthquake-generated tsunami inundated 41% of the atoll and triggered an Avian Botulism type C Clostridium botulinum outbreak. Following another severe botulism outbreak during 2015, the population experienced a 37% decline. Data indicated that the Midway Atoll population, like the founding Laysan Island population, is susceptible to catastrophic population declines. Consistent standardised monitoring using simple counts, in place of mark-recapture and resightings surveys, can be used to evaluate population status over the long-term. We estimate there were 314–435 Laysan Teal (95% CI for population estimate; point estimate = 375 individuals) at Midway Atoll in 2015; c. 50% of the global population. In comparison, the most recent estimate for numbers on Laysan Island was of 339 individuals in 2012 (95% CI = 265–413). We suggest that this approach can be used to validate a survey index for any marked, reintroduced resident wildlife population.

Finite mixture model: A maximum likelihood estimation approach on time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yen, Phoong Seuk; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Hamzah, Firdaus Mohamad

2014-09-01

Recently, statistician emphasized on the fitting of finite mixture model by using maximum likelihood estimation as it provides asymptotic properties. In addition, it shows consistency properties as the sample sizes increases to infinity. This illustrated that maximum likelihood estimation is an unbiased estimator. Moreover, the estimate parameters obtained from the application of maximum likelihood estimation have smallest variance as compared to others statistical method as the sample sizes increases. Thus, maximum likelihood estimation is adopted in this paper to fit the two-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and exchange rate for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Results described that there is a negative effect among rubber price and exchange rate for all selected countries.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pokharel, S; Rana, S

Purpose: purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of grid size in Eclipse AcurosXB dose calculation algorithm for SBRT lung. Methods: Five cases of SBRT lung previously treated have been chosen for present study. Four of the plans were 5 fields conventional IMRT and one was Rapid Arc plan. All five cases have been calculated with five grid sizes (1, 1.5, 2, 2.5 and 3mm) available for AXB algorithm with same plan normalization. Dosimetric indices relevant to SBRT along with MUs and time have been recorded for different grid sizes. The maximum difference was calculated as a percentagemore » of mean of all five values. All the plans were IMRT QAed with portal dosimetry. Results: The maximum difference of MUs was within 2%. The time increased was as high as 7 times from highest 3mm to lowest 1mm grid size. The largest difference of PTV minimum, maximum and mean dose were 7.7%, 1.5% and 1.6% respectively. The highest D2-Max difference was 6.1%. The highest difference in ipsilateral lung mean, V5Gy, V10Gy and V20Gy were 2.6%, 2.4%, 1.9% and 3.8% respectively. The maximum difference of heart, cord and esophagus dose were 6.5%, 7.8% and 4.02% respectively. The IMRT Gamma passing rate at 2%/2mm remains within 1.5% with at least 98% points passing with all grid sizes. Conclusion: This work indicates the lowest grid size of 1mm available in AXB is not necessarily required for accurate dose calculation. The IMRT passing rate was insignificant or not observed with the reduction of grid size less than 2mm. Although the maximum percentage difference of some of the dosimetric indices appear large, most of them are clinically insignificant in absolute dose values. So we conclude that 2mm grid size calculation is best compromise in light of dose calculation accuracy and time it takes to calculate dose.« less

7 CFR 51.1995 - U.S. No. 1.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

...) Well formed; and, (2) Clean and bright. (3) Free from: (i) Blanks; and, (ii) Broken or split shells. (4... minimum diameter, minimum and maximum diameters, or in accordance with one of the size classifications in Table I. Table I Size classifications Maximum size—Will pass through a round opening of the following...

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process

PubMed Central

Haines, Aaron M.; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J. Michael; Goble, Dale D.; Rachlow, Janet L.

2013-01-01

Simple Summary The objective of our study was to evaluate the mention of uncertainty (i.e., variance) associated with population size estimates within U.S. recovery plans for endangered animals. To do this we reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species. We found that more recent recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. We recommend that updated recovery plans combine uncertainty of population size estimates with a minimum detectable difference to aid in successful recovery. Abstract United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data. PMID:26479531

Application of the Maximum Amplitude-Early Rise Correlation to Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2004-01-01

On the basis of the maximum amplitude-early rise correlation, cycle 23 could have been predicted to be about the size of the mean cycle as early as 12 mo following cycle minimum. Indeed, estimates for the size of cycle 23 throughout its rise consistently suggested a maximum amplitude that would not differ appreciably from the mean cycle, contrary to predictions based on precursor information. Because cycle 23 s average slope during the rising portion of the solar cycle measured 2.4, computed as the difference between the conventional maximum (120.8) and minimum (8) amplitudes divided by the ascent duration in months (47), statistically speaking, it should be a cycle of shorter period. Hence, conventional sunspot minimum for cycle 24 should occur before December 2006, probably near July 2006 (+/-4 mo). However, if cycle 23 proves to be a statistical outlier, then conventional sunspot minimum for cycle 24 would be delayed until after July 2007, probably near December 2007 (+/-4 mo). In anticipation of cycle 24, a chart and table are provided for easy monitoring of the nearness and size of its maximum amplitude once onset has occurred (with respect to the mean cycle and using the updated maximum amplitude-early rise relationship).

Role of step size and max dwell time in anatomy based inverse optimization for prostate implants

PubMed Central

Manikandan, Arjunan; Sarkar, Biplab; Rajendran, Vivek Thirupathur; King, Paul R.; Sresty, N.V. Madhusudhana; Holla, Ragavendra; Kotur, Sachin; Nadendla, Sujatha

2013-01-01

In high dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy, the source dwell times and dwell positions are vital parameters in achieving a desirable implant dose distribution. Inverse treatment planning requires an optimal choice of these parameters to achieve the desired target coverage with the lowest achievable dose to the organs at risk (OAR). This study was designed to evaluate the optimum source step size and maximum source dwell time for prostate brachytherapy implants using an Ir-192 source. In total, one hundred inverse treatment plans were generated for the four patients included in this study. Twenty-five treatment plans were created for each patient by varying the step size and maximum source dwell time during anatomy-based, inverse-planned optimization. Other relevant treatment planning parameters were kept constant, including the dose constraints and source dwell positions. Each plan was evaluated for target coverage, urethral and rectal dose sparing, treatment time, relative target dose homogeneity, and nonuniformity ratio. The plans with 0.5 cm step size were seen to have clinically acceptable tumor coverage, minimal normal structure doses, and minimum treatment time as compared with the other step sizes. The target coverage for this step size is 87% of the prescription dose, while the urethral and maximum rectal doses were 107.3 and 68.7%, respectively. No appreciable difference in plan quality was observed with variation in maximum source dwell time. The step size plays a significant role in plan optimization for prostate implants. Our study supports use of a 0.5 cm step size for prostate implants. PMID:24049323

Ecological assessment of the marine ecosystems of Barbuda, West Indies: Using rapid scientific assessment to inform ocean zoning and fisheries management.

PubMed

Ruttenberg, Benjamin; Caselle, Jennifer E; Estep, Andrew J; Johnson, Ayana Elizabeth; Marhaver, Kristen L; Richter, Lee J; Sandin, Stuart A; Vermeij, Mark J A; Smith, Jennifer E; Grenda, David; Cannon, Abigail

2018-01-01

To inform a community-based ocean zoning initiative, we conducted an intensive ecological assessment of the marine ecosystems of Barbuda, West Indies. We conducted 116 fish and 108 benthic surveys around the island, and measured the abundance and size structure of lobsters and conch at 52 and 35 sites, respectively. We found that both coral cover and fish biomass were similar to or lower than levels observed across the greater Caribbean; live coral cover and abundance of fishery target species, such as large snappers and groupers, was generally low. However, Barbuda lacks many of the high-relief forereef areas where similar work has been conducted in other Caribbean locations. The distribution of lobsters was patchy, making it difficult to quantify density at the island scale. However, the maximum size of lobsters was generally larger than in other locations in the Caribbean and similar to the maximum size reported 40 years ago. While the lobster population has clearly been heavily exploited, our data suggest that it is not as overexploited as in much of the rest of the Caribbean. Surveys of Barbuda's Codrington Lagoon revealed many juvenile lobsters, but none of legal size (95 mm carapace length), suggesting that the lagoon functions primarily as nursery habitat. Conch abundance and size on Barbuda were similar to that of other Caribbean islands. Our data suggest that many of the regional threats observed on other Caribbean islands are present on Barbuda, but some resources-particularly lobster and conch-may be less overexploited than on other Caribbean islands. Local management has the potential to provide sustainability for at least some of the island's marine resources. We show that a rapid, thorough ecological assessment can reveal clear conservation opportunities and facilitate rapid conservation action by providing the foundation for a community-driven policymaking process at the island scale.

Ecological assessment of the marine ecosystems of Barbuda, West Indies: Using rapid scientific assessment to inform ocean zoning and fisheries management

PubMed Central

Caselle, Jennifer E.; Estep, Andrew J.; Johnson, Ayana Elizabeth; Marhaver, Kristen L.; Richter, Lee J.; Sandin, Stuart A.; Vermeij, Mark J. A.; Smith, Jennifer E.; Grenda, David; Cannon, Abigail

2018-01-01

To inform a community-based ocean zoning initiative, we conducted an intensive ecological assessment of the marine ecosystems of Barbuda, West Indies. We conducted 116 fish and 108 benthic surveys around the island, and measured the abundance and size structure of lobsters and conch at 52 and 35 sites, respectively. We found that both coral cover and fish biomass were similar to or lower than levels observed across the greater Caribbean; live coral cover and abundance of fishery target species, such as large snappers and groupers, was generally low. However, Barbuda lacks many of the high-relief forereef areas where similar work has been conducted in other Caribbean locations. The distribution of lobsters was patchy, making it difficult to quantify density at the island scale. However, the maximum size of lobsters was generally larger than in other locations in the Caribbean and similar to the maximum size reported 40 years ago. While the lobster population has clearly been heavily exploited, our data suggest that it is not as overexploited as in much of the rest of the Caribbean. Surveys of Barbuda’s Codrington Lagoon revealed many juvenile lobsters, but none of legal size (95 mm carapace length), suggesting that the lagoon functions primarily as nursery habitat. Conch abundance and size on Barbuda were similar to that of other Caribbean islands. Our data suggest that many of the regional threats observed on other Caribbean islands are present on Barbuda, but some resources—particularly lobster and conch—may be less overexploited than on other Caribbean islands. Local management has the potential to provide sustainability for at least some of the island’s marine resources. We show that a rapid, thorough ecological assessment can reveal clear conservation opportunities and facilitate rapid conservation action by providing the foundation for a community-driven policymaking process at the island scale. PMID:29309413

Life-history strategies of the rock hind grouper Epinephelus adscensionis at Ascension Island.

PubMed

Nolan, E T; Downes, K J; Richardson, A; Arkhipkin, A; Brickle, P; Brown, J; Mrowicki, R J; Shcherbich, Z; Weber, N; Weber, S B

2017-12-01

Epinephelus adscensionis sampled from Ascension Island, South Atlantic Ocean, exhibits distinct life-history traits, including larger maximum size and size at sexual maturity than previous studies have demonstrated for this species in other locations. Otolith analysis yielded a maximum estimated age of 25 years, with calculated von Bertalanffy growth parameters of: L ∞  = 55·14, K = 0·19, t 0  = -0·88. Monthly gonad staging and analysis of gonad-somatic index (I G ) provide evidence for spawning from July to November with an I G peak in August (austral winter), during which time somatic growth is also suppressed. Observed patterns of sexual development were supportive of protogyny, although further work is needed to confirm this. Mean size at sexual maturity for females was 28·9 cm total length (L T ; 95% C.I. 27·1-30·7 cm) and no females were found >12 years and 48·0 cm L T , whereas all confirmed males sampled were mature, >35·1 cm L T with an age range from 3 to 18 years. The modelled size at which 50% of individuals were male was 41·8 cm (95% C.I. 40·4-43·2 cm). As far as is known, this study represents the first comprehensive investigation into the growth and reproduction of E. adscensionis at its type locality of Ascension Island and suggests that the population may be affected less by fisheries than elsewhere in its range. Nevertheless, improved regulation of the recreational fishery and sustained monitoring of abundance, length frequencies and life-history parameters are needed to inform long-term management measures, which could include the creation of marine reserves, size or temporal catch limits and stricter export controls. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

The effect of crystal shape, size and bimodality on the maximum packing and the rheology of crystal bearing magma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moitra, Pranabendu; Gonnermann, Helge

2014-05-01

Magma often contains crystals of various shapes and sizes. We present experimental results on the effect of the shape- and size-distribution of solid particles on the rheological properties of solid-liquid suspensions, which are hydrodynamically analogous to crystal-bearing magmas. The suspensions were comprised of either a single particle shape and size (unimodal) or a mixture of two different particle shapes and sizes (bimodal). For each type of suspension we characterized the dry maximum packing fraction of the particle mixture using the tap density method. We then systematically varied the total volume fraction of particles in the suspension, as well as the relative proportion of the two different particle types in the bimodal suspensions. For each of the resultant mixtures (suspensions) we performed controlled shear stress experiments using a rotational rheometer in parallel-plate geometry spanning 4 orders of magnitude in shear stress. The resultant data curves of shear stress as a function of shear rate were fitted using a Herschel-Bulkley rheological model. We find that the dry maximum packing decreases with increasing particle aspect ratio (ar) and decreasing particle size ratio (Λ). The highest dry maximum packing was obtained at 60-75% volume of larger particles for bimodal spherical particle mixture. Normalized consistency, Kr, defined as the ratio of the consistency of the suspension and the viscosity of the suspending liquid, was fitted using a Krieger-Dougherty model as a function of the total solid volume fraction (φ). The maximum packing fractions (φm) obtained from the shear experimental data fitting of the unimodal suspensions were similar in magnitude with the dry maximum packing fractions of the unimodal particles. Subsequently, we used the dry maximum packing fractions of the bimodal particle mixtures to fit Kr as a function of φ for the bimodal suspensions. We find that Kr increases rapidly for suspensions with larger ar and smaller Λ. We also find that both the apparent yield stress and the shear thinning behavior of the suspensions increase with increasing ar and become significant at φ/φm ≥ 0.4.

Correlation analysis of the optics of progressive addition lenses.

PubMed

Sheedy, James E

2004-05-01

To investigate the relations between selected key optical parameters and the sizes of the clear viewing areas of progressive addition lenses (PALs). The optics of 28 PALs (plano with +2.00 D add) currently on the market were measured with a Rotlex Class Plus lens analyzer. Horizontal cross sections were analyzed in 1 mm vertical steps with respect to the fitting cross. Distance, intermediate, and near viewing zone widths and areas were calculated from the measurements. The maximum amount of unwanted astigmatism, minimum zone width (0.50 DC limit), and maximum power rate in the corridor were also recorded for each lens. Correlation coefficients were determined for all relations. Each of the three viewing zone areas had a significant negative relation with the other (r of -0.4 to -0.8), indicating design tradeoff. Maximum power rate was significantly related to minimum zone width (r = -0.695), which was significantly related to maximum astigmatism (r = -0.616), but there was not a significant relation between maximum power rate and maximum astigmatism. Higher power rates and narrower minimum zones were significantly related to smaller intermediate and larger near zones (r = 0.4 to 0.9). Maximum astigmatism was related to distance zone width (r = 0.42) and to intermediate zone size (r = -0.4 to -0.56), but not significantly related to near viewing zone. Power rate and astigmatism each vary relatively uniformly across each lens. The fundamental relation appears to be between power rate and zone width, each of which is highly related to sizes of the intermediate and near viewing zones. The maximum amount of astigmatism is related to zone width, but not to maximum power rate. The amount of astigmatism is unrelated to the size of the near zone. The pattern of correlations between the optical and viewing zone parameters help identify the underlying optical relations of PALs.

Role of patch size, disease, and movement in rapid extinction of bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, F.J.; Zeigenfuss, L.C.; Spicer, L.

2001-01-01

The controversy (Berger 1990, 1999; Wehausen 1999) over rapid extinction in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) has focused on population size alone as a correlate to persistence time. We report on the persistence and population performance of 24 translocated populations of bighorn sheep. Persistence in these sheep was strongly correlated with larger patch sizes, greater distance to domestic sheep, higher population growth rates, and migratory movements, as well as to larger population sizes. Persistence was also positively correlated with larger average home-range size (p = 0.058, n = 10 translocated populations) and home-range size of rams (p = 0.087, n = 8 translocated populations). Greater home-range size and dispersal rates of bighorn sheep were positively correlated to larger patches. We conclude that patch size and thus habitat carrying capacity, not population size per se, is the primary correlate to both population performance and persistence. Because habitat carrying capacity defines the upper limit to population size, clearly the amount of suitable habitat in a patch is ultimately linked to population size. Larger populations (250+ animals) were more likely to recover rapidly to their pre-epizootic survey number following an epizootic (p = 0.019), although the proportion of the population dying in the epizootic also influenced the probability of recovery (p = 0.001). Expensive management efforts to restore or increase bighorn sheep populations should focus on large habitat patches located ≥23 km from domestic sheep, and less effort should be expended on populations in isolated, small patches of habitat.

Optimal control of population and coherence in three-level Λ systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Praveen; Malinovskaya, Svetlana A.; Malinovsky, Vladimir S.

2011-08-01

Optimal control theory (OCT) implementations for an efficient population transfer and creation of maximum coherence in a three-level system are considered. We demonstrate that the half-stimulated Raman adiabatic passage scheme for creation of the maximum Raman coherence is the optimal solution according to the OCT. We also present a comparative study of several implementations of OCT applied to the complete population transfer and creation of the maximum coherence. Performance of the conjugate gradient method, the Zhu-Rabitz method and the Krotov method has been analysed.

Life history and ecology of the elusive European short-snouted seahorse Hippocampus hippocampus.

PubMed

Curtis, J M R; Santos, S V; Nadeau, J L; Gunn, B; Bigney Wilner, K; Balasubramanian, H; Overington, S; Lesage, C-M; D'entremont, J; Wieckowski, K

2017-12-01

To improve the understanding of the life history and ecology of one of Europe's most elusive fishes, the short-snouted seahorse Hippocampus hippocampus, data from wild populations in a shallow coastal lagoon in southern Portugal were analysed. The data were collected from 17 tagged seahorses on a focal-study grid as well as from >350 seahorses encountered during underwater visual surveys and a fishery-independent study using beach seines. These populations of settled juveniles and adults had a mean population density of 0·009 m -2 . During the study period (2000-2004), reproduction peaked in July and August. Juveniles recruited to the lagoon at c. 66 mm standard length (L S ) and 0·5 years of age and established small home ranges (0·8 to 18·2 m 2 ). First reproduction was estimated at 100 mm and 1 year of age. Based on a fitted von Bertalanffy model, H. hippocampus grew quickly (growth coefficient K = 0·93) to a maximum theoretical size L ∞  = 150 mm and have a maximum lifespan of c. 3·2 years. Courtship behaviours were consistent with the maintenance of pair bonds and males brooded multiple batches of young per year. Estimated annual reproductive output averaged 871 young (±632). Together these analyses provide the first life-history parameters for this species and indicate that H. hippocampus bears characteristics of opportunist and intermediate strategists. Such populations are predicted to exhibit large fluctuations in abundance, making them vulnerable to extended periods of poor recruitment. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Discriminant function sexing of fragmentary and complete femora: standards for contemporary Croatia.

PubMed

Slaus, Mario; Strinović, Davor; Skavić, Josip; Petrovecki, Vedrana

2003-05-01

Determining sex is one of the first and most important steps in identifying decomposed corpses or skeletal remains. Previous studies have demonstrated that populations differ from each other in size and proportion and that these differences can affect metric assessment of sex. This paper establishes standards for determining sex from fragmentary and complete femurs in a modern Croatian population. The sample is composed of 195 femora (104 male and 91 female) from positively identified victims of the 1991 War in Croatia. Six discriminant functions were generated. one using seven variables, three using two variables, and two employing one variable. Results show that complete femora can be sexed with 94.4% accuracy. The same overall accuracy, with slight differences in male/female accuracy, was achieved using a combination of two variables defining the epiphyses, and with the variable maximum diameter of the femoral head.

Population size of Cuban Parrots Amazona leucocephala and Sandhill Cranes Grus canadensis and community involvement in their conservation in northern Isla de la Juventud, Cuba

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aguilera, X.G.; Alvarez, V.B.; Wiley, J.W.; Rosales, J.R.

1999-01-01

The Cuban Sandhill Crane Grus canadensis nesiotes and Cuban Parrot Amazona leucocephala palmarum are considered endangered species in Cuba and the Isla de la Juventud (formerly Isla de Pinos). Coincident with a public education campaign, a population survey for these species was conducted in the northern part of the Isla de la Juventud on 17 December 1995, from 06hoo to 10hoo. Residents from throughout the island participated, manning 98 stations, with 1-4 observers per station. Parrots were observed at 60 (61.2%) of the stations with a total of 1320, maximum (without correction for duplicate observations), and 1100, minimum (corrected), individuals counted. Sandhill cranes were sighted at 38 (38.8%) of the stations, with a total of 115 individuals. Cranes and parrots co-occurred at 20 (20.4%) of the stations.

An Upper Limit on the Functional Fraction of the Human Genome.

PubMed

Graur, Dan

2017-07-01

For the human population to maintain a constant size from generation to generation, an increase in fertility must compensate for the reduction in the mean fitness of the population caused, among others, by deleterious mutations. The required increase in fertility due to this mutational load depends on the number of sites in the genome that are functional, the mutation rate, and the fraction of deleterious mutations among all mutations in functional regions. These dependencies and the fact that there exists a maximum tolerable replacement level fertility can be used to put an upper limit on the fraction of the human genome that can be functional. Mutational load considerations lead to the conclusion that the functional fraction within the human genome cannot exceed 25%, and is probably considerably lower. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

7 CFR 51.344 - Size.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Standards for Grades of Apples for Processing Size § 51.344 Size. (a) The minimum and maximum sizes or range... the apples determined by the smallest opening through which it will pass. Application of Standards ...

7 CFR 51.344 - Size.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Standards for Grades of Apples for Processing Size § 51.344 Size. (a) The minimum and maximum sizes or range... the apples determined by the smallest opening through which it will pass. Application of Standards ...

7 CFR 51.344 - Size.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... Standards for Grades of Apples for Processing Size § 51.344 Size. (a) The minimum and maximum sizes or range... the apples determined by the smallest opening through which it will pass. Application of Standards ...

Optimizing Mississippi aggregates for concrete bridge decks.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-12-01

AASHTO M 43 Standard Specification for Sizes of Aggregate for Road and Bridge Construction : addresses particle size distribution of material included in various maximum nominal size aggregates. This : particle size distribution requires additi...

Use of electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry for size profiling of gold and silver nanoparticles.

PubMed

Panyabut, Teerawat; Sirirat, Natnicha; Siripinyanond, Atitaya

2018-02-13

Electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry (ETAAS) was applied to investigate the atomization behaviors of gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) and silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) in order to relate with particle size information. At various atomization temperatures from 1400 °C to 2200 °C, the time-dependent atomic absorption peak profiles of AuNPs and AgNPs with varying sizes from 5 nm to 100 nm were examined. With increasing particle size, the maximum absorbance was observed at the longer time. The time at maximum absorbance was found to linearly increase with increasing particle size, suggesting that ETAAS can be applied to provide the size information of nanoparticles. With the atomization temperature of 1600 °C, the mixtures of nanoparticles containing two particle sizes, i.e., 5 nm tannic stabilized AuNPs with 60, 80, 100 nm citrate stabilized AuNPs, were investigated and bimodal peaks were observed. The particle size dependent atomization behaviors of nanoparticles show potential application of ETAAS for providing size information of nanoparticles. The calibration plot between the time at maximum absorbance and the particle size was applied to estimate the particle size of in-house synthesized AuNPs and AgNPs and the results obtained were in good agreement with those from flow field-flow fractionation (FlFFF) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) techniques. Furthermore, the linear relationship between the activation energy and the particle size was observed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial distribution of limited resources and local density regulation in juvenile Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Finstad, Anders G; Einum, Sigurd; Ugedal, Ola; Forseth, Torbjørn

2009-01-01

1. Spatial heterogeneity of resources may influence competition among individuals and thus have a fundamental role in shaping population dynamics and carrying capacity. In the present study, we identify shelter opportunities as a limiting resource for juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). Experimental and field studies are combined in order to demonstrate how the spatial distribution of shelters may influence population dynamics on both within and among population scales. 2. In closed experimental streams, fish performance scaled negatively with decreasing shelter availability and increasing densities. In contrast, the fish in open stream channels dispersed according to shelter availability and performance of fish remaining in the streams did not depend on initial density or shelters. 3. The field study confirmed that spatial variation in densities of 1-year-old juveniles was governed both by initial recruit density and shelter availability. Strength of density-dependent population regulation, measured as carrying capacity, increased with decreasing number of shelters. 4. Nine rivers were surveyed for spatial variation in shelter availability and increased shelter heterogeneity tended to decrease maximum observed population size (measured using catch statistics of adult salmon as a proxy). 5. Our studies highlight the importance of small-scale within-population spatial structure in population dynamics and demonstrate that not only the absolute amount of limiting resources but also their spatial arrangement can be an important factor influencing population carrying capacity.

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process.

PubMed

Haines, Aaron M; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J Michael; Goble, Dale D; Rachlow, Janet L

2013-08-13

United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhattacharya, Sourav; Dialektopoulos, Konstantinos F.; Romano, Antonio Enea

The maximum size of a cosmic structure is given by the maximum turnaround radius—the scale where the attraction due to its mass is balanced by the repulsion due to dark energy. We derive generic formulae for the estimation of the maximum turnaround radius in any theory of gravity obeying the Einstein equivalence principle, in two situations: on a spherically symmetric spacetime and on a perturbed Friedman-Robertson-Walker spacetime. We show that the two formulae agree. As an application of our formula, we calculate the maximum turnaround radius in the case of the Brans-Dicke theory of gravity. We find that for thismore » theory, such maximum sizes always lie above the ΛCDM value, by a factor 1 + 1/3ω, where ω>> 1 is the Brans-Dicke parameter, implying consistency of the theory with current data.« less

Craniometric analysis of European Upper Palaeolithic and Mesolithic samples supports discontinuity at the Late Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Brewster, Ciarán; Meiklejohn, Christopher; von Cramon-Taubadel, Noreen; Pinhasi, Ron

2014-01-01

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) represents the most significant climatic event since the emergence of anatomically modern humans (AMH). In Europe, the LGM may have played a role in changing morphological features as a result of adaptive and stochastic processes. We use craniometric data to examine morphological diversity in pre- and post-LGM specimens. Craniometric variation is assessed across four periods—pre-LGM, late glacial, Early Holocene and Middle Holocene—using a large, well-dated, dataset. Our results show significant differences across the four periods, using a MANOVA on size-adjusted cranial measurements. A discriminant function analysis shows separation between pre-LGM and later groups. Analyses repeated on a subsample, controlled for time and location, yield similar results. The results are largely influenced by facial measurements and are most consistent with neutral demographic processes. These findings suggest that the LGM had a major impact on AMH populations in Europe prior to the Neolithic. PMID:24912847

Maximum size-density relationships for mixed-hardwood forest stands in New England

Treesearch

Dale S. Solomon; Lianjun Zhang

2000-01-01

Maximum size-density relationships were investigated for two mixed-hardwood ecological types (sugar maple-ash and beech-red maple) in New England. Plots meeting type criteria and undergoing self-thinning were selected for each habitat. Using reduced major axis regression, no differences were found between the two ecological types. Pure species plots (the species basal...

Determining the effect of grain size and maximum induction upon coercive field of electrical steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landgraf, Fernando José Gomes; da Silveira, João Ricardo Filipini; Rodrigues-Jr., Daniel

2011-10-01

Although theoretical models have already been proposed, experimental data is still lacking to quantify the influence of grain size upon coercivity of electrical steels. Some authors consider a linear inverse proportionality, while others suggest a square root inverse proportionality. Results also differ with regard to the slope of the reciprocal of grain size-coercive field relation for a given material. This paper discusses two aspects of the problem: the maximum induction used for determining coercive force and the possible effect of lurking variables such as the grain size distribution breadth and crystallographic texture. Electrical steel sheets containing 0.7% Si, 0.3% Al and 24 ppm C were cold-rolled and annealed in order to produce different grain sizes (ranging from 20 to 150 μm). Coercive field was measured along the rolling direction and found to depend linearly on reciprocal of grain size with a slope of approximately 0.9 (A/m)mm at 1.0 T induction. A general relation for coercive field as a function of grain size and maximum induction was established, yielding an average absolute error below 4%. Through measurement of B50 and image analysis of micrographs, the effects of crystallographic texture and grain size distribution breadth were qualitatively discussed.

Preparation of narrow dispersity gold nanorods by asymmetrical flow field-flow fractionation and investigation of surface plasmon resonance.

PubMed

Runyon, J Ray; Goering, Adam; Yong, Ken-Tye; Williams, S Kim Ratanathanawongs

2013-01-15

The development of an asymmetrical field-flow fractionation (AsFlFFF) method for separating gold nanorods (GNR) is reported. Collected fractions containing GNR subpopulations with aspect ratios, sizes, and shapes which are more narrowly dispersed than the original population were further characterized by UV-vis spectroscopy and transmission electron microscopy. This ability to obtain different sizes and shapes of nanoparticles enabled the evaluation of a new approach to estimating the retention time and hydrodynamic size of nanorods and the investigation of GNR optical properties at a previously unattainable level of detail. Experimental results demonstrate that the longitudinal surface plasmon absorption maximum of GNRs is correlated with the effective particle radius in addition to the aspect ratio. This may account for some of the variabilities reported in published empirical data from different research groups and supports reports of simulated absorption spectra of GNRs of different physical dimensions. The use of AsFlFFF with dual UV-vis detection to rapidly assess relative changes in GNR subpopulations was demonstrated for irregularly shaped gold nanoparticles formed at different synthesis temperatures.

Timing and Order of Transmission Events Is Not Directly Reflected in a Pathogen Phylogeny

PubMed Central

Romero-Severson, Ethan; Skar, Helena; Bulla, Ingo; Albert, Jan; Leitner, Thomas

2014-01-01

Pathogen phylogenies are often used to infer spread among hosts. There is, however, not an exact match between the pathogen phylogeny and the host transmission history. Here, we examine in detail the limitations of this relationship. First, all splits in a pathogen phylogeny of more than 1 host occur within hosts, not at the moment of transmission, predating the transmission events as described by the pretransmission interval. Second, the order in which nodes in a phylogeny occur may be reflective of the within-host dynamics rather than epidemiologic relationships. To investigate these phenomena, motivated by within-host diversity patterns, we developed a two-phase coalescent model that includes a transmission bottleneck followed by linear outgrowth to a maximum population size followed by either stabilization or decline of the population. The model predicts that the pretransmission interval shrinks compared with predictions based on constant population size or a simple transmission bottleneck. Because lineages coalesce faster in a small population, the probability of a pathogen phylogeny to resemble the transmission history depends on when after infection a donor transmits to a new host. We also show that the probability of inferring the incorrect order of multiple transmissions from the same host is high. Finally, we compare time of HIV-1 infection informed by genetic distances in phylogenies to independent biomarker data, and show that, indeed, the pretransmission interval biases phylogeny-based estimates of when transmissions occurred. We describe situations where caution is needed not to misinterpret which parts of a phylogeny that may indicate outbreaks and tight transmission clusters. PMID:24874208

7 CFR 51.2836 - Size classifications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Size classifications. 51.2836 Section 51.2836...) Size Classifications § 51.2836 Size classifications. The size of onions may be specified in accordance with one of the following classifications. Size designation Minimum diameter Inches Millimeters Maximum...

7 CFR 51.2836 - Size classifications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Size classifications. 51.2836 Section 51.2836...) Size Classifications § 51.2836 Size classifications. The size of onions may be specified in accordance with one of the following classifications. Size designation Minimum diameter Inches Millimeters Maximum...

7 CFR 51.2836 - Size classifications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Size classifications. 51.2836 Section 51.2836...) Size Classifications § 51.2836 Size classifications. The size of onions may be specified in accordance with one of the following classifications. Size designation Minimum diameter Inches Millimeters Maximum...

Phylogeographic structure across one of the largest intact tropical savannahs: Molecular and morphological analysis of Australia's iconic frilled lizard Chlamydosaurus kingii.

PubMed

Pepper, Mitzy; Hamilton, David G; Merkling, Thomas; Svedin, Nina; Cser, Bori; Catullo, Renee A; Pryke, Sarah R; Keogh, J Scott

2017-01-01

The spectacular threat display of the savannah specialist Australo-Papuan frilled lizards has made them one of the world's most iconic reptiles. They are increasingly used as a model system for research in evolutionary biology and ecology but little is known of their population structure. Their distribution across northern Australia and southern New Guinea also provides an opportunity to examine biogeographic patterns as they relate to the large-scale movement of savannah habitat during the Plio/Pleistocene and the associated increase in aridity. We generated sequence data for one mitochondrial and four nuclear DNA loci (5052 base pairs) for 83 frilled lizards sampled throughout their range. We also quantified body proportion variation for 279 individuals. Phylogenetic analyses based on maximum likelihood and Bayesian species-tree methods revealed three shallow clades that replace each other across the monsoon tropics. We found the expected pattern of male biased sexual size dimorphism in both maximum body size and head size but there was no sexual dimorphism in overall body shape or in frill size, relative to head size, supporting the hypothesis that the frill is used primarily as a threat display rather than a sexual display. The genetic clades are broadly consistent with known clinal variation in frill color that gradually shifts from west to east (red, orange, yellow/white) but otherwise show little morphological differentiation in body proportion measures. The biogeographic breaks between clades occur at the Carpentaria Gap and the lowlands surrounding the Ord River, and our ecological niche modeling predicts lower habitat suitability for C. kingii in these regions. While this biogeographic pattern is consistent with numerous other taxonomic groups in northern Australia, the overall low genetic diversity in frilled lizards across the entire monsoon tropics and southern New Guinea contrasts starkly to patterns seen in other terrestrial vertebrates. Extremely low intra-clade genetic diversity over vast geographic areas is indicative of recent gene flow that would likely have been facilitated by widespread savannah during interglacials, or alternatively may reflect population bottlenecks induced by extreme aridity during Pleistocene glacials. The shallow divergence between Australian and New Guinean samples is consistent with recent connectivity between Australia and New Guinea that would have been possible via a savannah corridor across the Torres Strait. Based on our molecular and morphological data, we do not support taxonomic recognition of any of the frilled lizard clades and instead consider C. kingii a single species with shallow phylogeographic structure and clinal variation in frill color. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of Response Surface Methods To Determine Conditions for Optimal Genomic Prediction

PubMed Central

Howard, Réka; Carriquiry, Alicia L.; Beavis, William D.

2017-01-01

An epistatic genetic architecture can have a significant impact on prediction accuracies of genomic prediction (GP) methods. Machine learning methods predict traits comprised of epistatic genetic architectures more accurately than statistical methods based on additive mixed linear models. The differences between these types of GP methods suggest a diagnostic for revealing genetic architectures underlying traits of interest. In addition to genetic architecture, the performance of GP methods may be influenced by the sample size of the training population, the number of QTL, and the proportion of phenotypic variability due to genotypic variability (heritability). Possible values for these factors and the number of combinations of the factor levels that influence the performance of GP methods can be large. Thus, efficient methods for identifying combinations of factor levels that produce most accurate GPs is needed. Herein, we employ response surface methods (RSMs) to find the experimental conditions that produce the most accurate GPs. We illustrate RSM with an example of simulated doubled haploid populations and identify the combination of factors that maximize the difference between prediction accuracies of best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) and support vector machine (SVM) GP methods. The greatest impact on the response is due to the genetic architecture of the population, heritability of the trait, and the sample size. When epistasis is responsible for all of the genotypic variance and heritability is equal to one and the sample size of the training population is large, the advantage of using the SVM method vs. the BLUP method is greatest. However, except for values close to the maximum, most of the response surface shows little difference between the methods. We also determined that the conditions resulting in the greatest prediction accuracy for BLUP occurred when genetic architecture consists solely of additive effects, and heritability is equal to one. PMID:28720710

So Long and Thanks for All the Fish: Overexploitation of the Regionally Endemic Galapagos Grouper Mycteroperca olfax (Jenyns, 1840).

PubMed

Usseglio, Paolo; Friedlander, Alan M; Koike, Haruko; Zimmerhackel, Johanna; Schuhbauer, Anna; Eddy, Tyler; Salinas-de-León, Pelayo

2016-01-01

The regionally endemic Galapagos Grouper, locally known as bacalao, is one of the most highly prized finfish species within the Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR). Concerns of overfishing, coupled with a lack of fishing regulations aimed at this species raises concerns about the current population health. We assessed changes in population health over a 30-year period using three simple indicators: (1) percentage of fish below reproductive size (Lm); (2) percentage of fish within the optimum length interval (Lopt); and (3) percentage of mega-spawners in the catch. Over the assessed period, none of the indicators reached values associated with healthy populations, with all indicators declining over time. Furthermore, the most recent landings data show that the vast majority of the bacalao caught (95.7%,) were below Lm, the number of fish within the Lopt interval was extremely low (4.7%), and there were virtually no mega-spawners (0.2%). Bacalao fully recruit to the fishery 15 cm below the size at which 50% of the population matures. The Spawning Potential Ratio is currently 5% of potential unfished fecundity, strongly suggesting severe overfishing. Our results suggest the need for bacalao-specific management regulations that should include minimum (65 cm TL) and maximum (78 cm TL) landing sizes, slot limits (64-78 cm TL), as well as a closed season during spawning from October to January. It is recognized that these regulations are harsh and will certainly have negative impacts on the livelihoods of fishers in the short term, however, continued inaction will likely result in a collapse of this economically and culturally valuable species. Alternative sources of income should be developed in parallel with the establishment of fishing regulations to limit the socio-economic disruption to the fishing community during the transition to a more sustainable management regime.

So Long and Thanks for All the Fish: Overexploitation of the Regionally Endemic Galapagos Grouper Mycteroperca olfax (Jenyns, 1840)

PubMed Central

Friedlander, Alan M.; Koike, Haruko; Zimmerhackel, Johanna; Schuhbauer, Anna; Eddy, Tyler; Salinas-de-León, Pelayo

2016-01-01

The regionally endemic Galapagos Grouper, locally known as bacalao, is one of the most highly prized finfish species within the Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR). Concerns of overfishing, coupled with a lack of fishing regulations aimed at this species raises concerns about the current population health. We assessed changes in population health over a 30-year period using three simple indicators: (1) percentage of fish below reproductive size (Lm); (2) percentage of fish within the optimum length interval (Lopt); and (3) percentage of mega-spawners in the catch. Over the assessed period, none of the indicators reached values associated with healthy populations, with all indicators declining over time. Furthermore, the most recent landings data show that the vast majority of the bacalao caught (95.7%,) were below Lm, the number of fish within the Lopt interval was extremely low (4.7%), and there were virtually no mega-spawners (0.2%). Bacalao fully recruit to the fishery 15 cm below the size at which 50% of the population matures. The Spawning Potential Ratio is currently 5% of potential unfished fecundity, strongly suggesting severe overfishing. Our results suggest the need for bacalao-specific management regulations that should include minimum (65 cm TL) and maximum (78 cm TL) landing sizes, slot limits (64–78 cm TL), as well as a closed season during spawning from October to January. It is recognized that these regulations are harsh and will certainly have negative impacts on the livelihoods of fishers in the short term, however, continued inaction will likely result in a collapse of this economically and culturally valuable species. Alternative sources of income should be developed in parallel with the establishment of fishing regulations to limit the socio-economic disruption to the fishing community during the transition to a more sustainable management regime. PMID:27780213

Pelagic larval duration and settlement size of a reef fish are spatially consistent, but post-settlement growth varies at the reef scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leahy, Susannah M.; Russ, Garry R.; Abesamis, Rene A.

2015-12-01

Recent research has demonstrated that, despite a pelagic larval stage, many coral reef fishes disperse over relatively small distances, leading to well-connected populations on scales of 0-30 km. Although variation in key biological characteristics has been explored on the scale of 100-1000 s of km, it has rarely been explored at the scale relevant to actual larval dispersal and population connectivity on ecological timescales. In this study, we surveyed the habitat and collected specimens ( n = 447) of juvenile butterflyfish, Chaetodon vagabundus, at nine sites along an 80-km stretch of coastline in the central Philippines to identify variation in key life history parameters at a spatial scale relevant to population connectivity. Mean pelagic larval duration (PLD) was 24.03 d (SE = 0.16 d), and settlement size was estimated to be 20.54 mm total length (TL; SE = 0.61 mm). Both traits were spatially consistent, although this PLD is considerably shorter than that reported elsewhere. In contrast, post-settlement daily growth rates, calculated from otolith increment widths from 1 to 50 d post-settlement, varied strongly across the study region. Elevated growth rates were associated with rocky habitats that this species is known to recruit to, but were strongly negatively correlated with macroalgal cover and exhibited negative density dependence with conspecific juveniles. Larger animals had lower early (first 50 d post-settlement) growth rates than smaller animals, even after accounting for seasonal variation in growth rates. Both VBGF and Gompertz models provided good fits to post-settlement size-at-age data ( n = 447 fish), but the VBGF's estimate of asymptotic length ( L ∞ = 168 mm) was more consistent with field observations of maximum fish length. Our findings indicate that larval characteristics are consistent at the spatial scale at which populations are likely well connected, but that site-level biological differences develop post-settlement, most likely as a result of key differences in quality of recruitment habitat.

78 FR 19002 - Marine Mammal Protection Act; Draft Revised Stock Assessment Reports for Two Stocks of West...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-28

... optimum sustainable population level (OSP). OSP is defined under the MMPA as '' * * * the number of animals which will result in the maximum productivity of the population or the species, keeping in mind... include: 1. A description of the stock and its geographic range; 2. A minimum population estimate, maximum...

Stability numerical analysis of soil cave in karst area to drawdown of underground water level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Yizheng; Xiao, Rencheng; Deng, Zongwei

2018-05-01

With the underground water level falling, the reliable estimates of the stability and deformation characteristics of soil caves in karst region area are required for analysis used for engineering design. Aimed at this goal, combined with practical engineering and field geotechnical test, detail analysis on vertical maximum displacement of top, vertical maximum displacement of surface, maximum principal stress and maximum shear stress were conducted by finite element software, with an emphasis on two varying factors: the size and the depth of soil cave. The calculations on the soil cave show that, its stability of soil cave is affected by both the size and depth, and only when extending a certain limit, the collapse occurred along with the falling of underground water; Additionally, its maximum shear stress is in arch toes, and its deformation curve trend of maximum displacement is similar to the maximum shear stress, which further verified that the collapse of soil cave was mainly due to shear-failure.

Introgression Makes Waves in Inferred Histories of Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Hawks, John

2017-01-01

Human populations have a complex history of introgression and of changing population size. Human genetic variation has been affected by both these processes, so inference of past population size depends upon the pattern of gene flow and introgression among past populations. One remarkable aspect of human population history as inferred from genetics is a consistent "wave" of larger effective population sizes, found in both African and non-African populations, that appears to reflect events prior to the last 100,000 years. I carried out a series of simulations to investigate how introgression and gene flow from genetically divergent ancestral populations affect the inference of ancestral effective population size. Both introgression and gene flow from an extinct, genetically divergent population consistently produce a wave in the history of inferred effective population size. The time and amplitude of the wave reflect the time of origin of the genetically divergent ancestral populations and the strength of introgression or gene flow. These results demonstrate that even small fractions of introgression or gene flow from ancient populations may have visible effects on the inference of effective population size.

Local extinction and recolonization, species effective population size, and modern human origins.

PubMed

Eller, Elise; Hawks, John; Relethford, John H

2004-10-01

A primary objection from a population genetics perspective to a multiregional model of modern human origins is that the model posits a large census size, whereas genetic data suggest a small effective population size. The relationship between census size and effective size is complex, but arguments based on an island model of migration show that if the effective population size reflects the number of breeding individuals and the effects of population subdivision, then an effective population size of 10,000 is inconsistent with the census size of 500,000 to 1,000,000 that has been suggested by archeological evidence. However, these models have ignored the effects of population extinction and recolonization, which increase the expected variance among demes and reduce the inbreeding effective population size. Using models developed for population extinction and recolonization, we show that a large census size consistent with the multiregional model can be reconciled with an effective population size of 10,000, but genetic variation among demes must be high, reflecting low interdeme migration rates and a colonization process that involves a small number of colonists or kin-structured colonization. Ethnographic and archeological evidence is insufficient to determine whether such demographic conditions existed among Pleistocene human populations, and further work needs to be done. More realistic models that incorporate isolation by distance and heterogeneity in extinction rates and effective deme sizes also need to be developed. However, if true, a process of population extinction and recolonization has interesting implications for human demographic history.

Genetic Diversity in Introduced Populations with an Allee Effect

PubMed Central

Wittmann, Meike J.; Gabriel, Wilfried; Metzler, Dirk

2014-01-01

A phenomenon that strongly influences the demography of small introduced populations and thereby potentially their genetic diversity is the demographic Allee effect, a reduction in population growth rates at small population sizes. We take a stochastic modeling approach to investigate levels of genetic diversity in populations that successfully overcame either a strong Allee effect, in which populations smaller than a certain critical size are expected to decline, or a weak Allee effect, in which the population growth rate is reduced at small sizes but not negative. Our results indicate that compared to successful populations without an Allee effect, successful populations with a strong Allee effect tend to (1) derive from larger founder population sizes and thus have a higher initial amount of genetic variation, (2) spend fewer generations at small population sizes where genetic drift is particularly strong, and (3) spend more time around the critical population size and thus experience more genetic drift there. In the case of multiple introduction events, there is an additional increase in diversity because Allee-effect populations tend to derive from a larger number of introduction events than other populations. Altogether, a strong Allee effect can either increase or decrease genetic diversity, depending on the average founder population size. By contrast, a weak Allee effect tends to decrease genetic diversity across the entire range of founder population sizes. Finally, we show that it is possible in principle to infer critical population sizes from genetic data, although this would require information from many independently introduced populations. PMID:25009147

Photochemical formation of chitosan-stabilized near-infrared-absorbing silver Nanoworms: A "Green" synthetic strategy and activity on Gram-negative pathogenic bacteria.

PubMed

Marpu, Sreekar; Kolailat, Samar S; Korir, Daniel; Kamras, Brian L; Chaturvedi, Ratnesh; Joseph, Abel; Smith, Christopher M; Palma, Misael C; Shah, Jyoti; Omary, Mohammad A

2017-12-01

A facile, single-step, non-seeded photochemical protocol for producing a new type of anisotropic silver nanostructure, "nanoworms", with curved longer dimensions and smooth, rounded edges. The nanoworms exhibit surface plasmon resonance (SPR) absorption in the near-infrared window (NIRW) region and are stabilized using biocompatible polymer chitosan, rendering biocompatibility and amplified safety for biological utility of the composition. Both NIRW-absorbing nanoworms and visible-absorbing nanospheres herein are attained exclusively by employing green chemistry principles. Contrary to seed-mediated or polyol techniques, the protocol demonstrates the feasibility to selectively synthesize NIRW-absorbing silver nanostructures in a single step and in complete absence of any known reducing agent. The effect of irradiation, pH, and concentration of starting materials on the formation of nanoworms vs nanospheres is investigated in detail and analyzed by optical spectroscopy and electron microscopy. The dominant SPR obtained in the NIRW region of the nanoworms results from anisotropic AgNPs, as opposed to agglomeration. From TEM images, it is also very clear that a strong correlation exists between the SPR peak maximum and the size distribution of the anisotropic nanoworm structures, with SPR peak maximum exhibiting red shift with the increase in the size of the nanoworm population. Although there is significant size variation of different nanoworms of a given population, all samples exhibit remarkable stability. The nanoworms retained their NIRW-absorbing features even at physiological pH and at a constant ionic strength. The nanodispersions also retained their SPR features in King's B medium. Antipathogenic assays reveal that the anisotropic NIRW-absorbing nanoworms exhibit the highest growth inhibition compared to other spherical nanosilver and molecular silver forms on Gram-negative pathogenic bacteria, Pseudomonas syringae pv. maculicola ES4326 and P. syringae pv. tomato DC3000. These results underscore shape effects of AgNPs and suggest that nanoworms favor the adhesion to (curved) rod-shaped Gram-negative bacteria, resulting in the highest inhibition compared to isotropic AgNPs (smaller spheres), sulfa antibiotics (silver sulfadiazine), and silver ions (AgNO 3 ). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effective population size of korean populations.

PubMed

Park, Leeyoung

2014-12-01

Recently, new methods have been developed for estimating the current and recent changes in effective population sizes. Based on the methods, the effective population sizes of Korean populations were estimated using data from the Korean Association Resource (KARE) project. The overall changes in the population sizes of the total populations were similar to CHB (Han Chinese in Beijing, China) and JPT (Japanese in Tokyo, Japan) of the HapMap project. There were no differences in past changes in population sizes with a comparison between an urban area and a rural area. Age-dependent current and recent effective population sizes represent the modern history of Korean populations, including the effects of World War II, the Korean War, and urbanization. The oldest age group showed that the population growth of Koreans had already been substantial at least since the end of the 19th century.

Estimating the size of hidden populations using respondent-driven sampling data: Case examples from Morocco

PubMed Central

Johnston, Lisa G; McLaughlin, Katherine R; Rhilani, Houssine El; Latifi, Amina; Toufik, Abdalla; Bennani, Aziza; Alami, Kamal; Elomari, Boutaina; Handcock, Mark S

2015-01-01

Background Respondent-driven sampling is used worldwide to estimate the population prevalence of characteristics such as HIV/AIDS and associated risk factors in hard-to-reach populations. Estimating the total size of these populations is of great interest to national and international organizations, however reliable measures of population size often do not exist. Methods Successive Sampling-Population Size Estimation (SS-PSE) along with network size imputation allows population size estimates to be made without relying on separate studies or additional data (as in network scale-up, multiplier and capture-recapture methods), which may be biased. Results Ten population size estimates were calculated for people who inject drugs, female sex workers, men who have sex with other men, and migrants from sub-Sahara Africa in six different cities in Morocco. SS-PSE estimates fell within or very close to the likely values provided by experts and the estimates from previous studies using other methods. Conclusions SS-PSE is an effective method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations that leverages important information within respondent-driven sampling studies. The addition of a network size imputation method helps to smooth network sizes allowing for more accurate results. However, caution should be used particularly when there is reason to believe that clustered subgroups may exist within the population of interest or when the sample size is small in relation to the population. PMID:26258908

Abundance of adult saugers across the Wind River watershed, Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amadio, C.J.; Hubert, W.A.; Johnson, K.; Oberlie, D.; Dufek, D.

2006-01-01

The abundance of adult saugers Sander canadensis was estimated over 179 km of continuous lotic habitat across a watershed on the western periphery of their natural distribution in Wyoming. Three-pass depletions with raft-mounted electrofishing gear were conducted in 283 pools and runs among 19 representative reaches totaling 51 km during the late summer and fall of 2002. From 2 to 239 saugers were estimated to occur among the 19 reaches of 1.6-3.8 km in length. The estimates were extrapolated to a total population estimate (mean ?? 95% confidence interval) of 4,115 ?? 308 adult saugers over 179 km of lotie habitat. Substantial variation in mean density (range = 1.0-32.5 fish/ha) and mean biomass (range = 0.5-16.8 kg/ha) of adult saugers in pools and runs was observed among the study reaches. Mean density and biomass were highest in river reaches with pools and runs that had maximum depths of more than 1 m, mean daily summer water temperatures exceeding 20??C, and alkalinity exceeding 130 mg/L. No saugers were captured in the 39 pools or runs with maximum water depths of 0.6 m or less. Multiple-regression analysis and the information-theoretic approach were used to identify watershed-scale and instream habitat features accounting for the variation in biomass among the 244 pools and runs across the watershed with maximum depths greater than 0.6 m. Sauger biomass was greater in pools than in runs and increased as mean daily summer water temperature, maximum depth, and mean summer alkalinity increased and as dominant substrate size decreased. This study provides an estimate of adult sauger abundance and identifies habitat features associated with variation in their density and biomass across a watershed, factors important to the management of both populations and habitat. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Maximum size-density relationships for mixed softwoods in the northeastern USA

Treesearch

Dale S. Solomon; Lianjun Zhang

2002-01-01

The maximum size-density relationships or self-thinning lines were developed for three mix .ed-softwood climax forest habitats (hemlock-red spruce, spruce-fir, and cedar-black spruce) in the northeastern USA. The plot data were collected from an extensive data base used in growth studies from 1950 to 1970, and represented a wide range of species compositions, sites,...

Determining size and dispersion of minimum viable populations for land management planning and species conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmkuhl, John F.

1984-03-01

The concept of minimum populations of wildlife and plants has only recently been discussed in the literature. Population genetics has emerged as a basic underlying criterion for determining minimum population size. This paper presents a genetic framework and procedure for determining minimum viable population size and dispersion strategies in the context of multiple-use land management planning. A procedure is presented for determining minimum population size based on maintenance of genetic heterozygosity and reduction of inbreeding. A minimum effective population size ( N e ) of 50 breeding animals is taken from the literature as the minimum shortterm size to keep inbreeding below 1% per generation. Steps in the procedure adjust N e to account for variance in progeny number, unequal sex ratios, overlapping generations, population fluctuations, and period of habitat/population constraint. The result is an approximate census number that falls within a range of effective population size of 50 500 individuals. This population range defines the time range of short- to long-term population fitness and evolutionary potential. The length of the term is a relative function of the species generation time. Two population dispersion strategies are proposed: core population and dispersed population.

Minimizing the Maximum Expected Sample Size in Two-Stage Phase II Clinical Trials with Continuous Outcomes

PubMed Central

Wason, James M. S.; Mander, Adrian P.

2012-01-01

Two-stage designs are commonly used for Phase II trials. Optimal two-stage designs have the lowest expected sample size for a specific treatment effect, for example, the null value, but can perform poorly if the true treatment effect differs. Here we introduce a design for continuous treatment responses that minimizes the maximum expected sample size across all possible treatment effects. The proposed design performs well for a wider range of treatment effects and so is useful for Phase II trials. We compare the design to a previously used optimal design and show it has superior expected sample size properties. PMID:22651118

The rise of ocean giants: maximum body size in Cenozoic marine mammals as an indicator for productivity in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

PubMed

Pyenson, Nicholas D; Vermeij, Geerat J

2016-07-01

Large consumers have ecological influence disproportionate to their abundance, although this influence in food webs depends directly on productivity. Evolutionary patterns at geologic timescales inform expectations about the relationship between consumers and productivity, but it is very difficult to track productivity through time with direct, quantitative measures. Based on previous work that used the maximum body size of Cenozoic marine invertebrate assemblages as a proxy for benthic productivity, we investigated how the maximum body size of Cenozoic marine mammals, in two feeding guilds, evolved over comparable temporal and geographical scales. First, maximal size in marine herbivores remains mostly stable and occupied by two different groups (desmostylians and sirenians) over separate timeframes in the North Pacific Ocean, while sirenians exclusively dominated this ecological mode in the North Atlantic. Second, mysticete whales, which are the largest Cenozoic consumers in the filter-feeding guild, remained in the same size range until a Mio-Pliocene onset of cetacean gigantism. Both vertebrate guilds achieved very large size only recently, suggesting that different trophic mechanisms promoting gigantism in the oceans have operated in the Cenozoic than in previous eras. © 2016 The Authors.

Relating Linear and Volumetric Variables Through Body Scanning to Improve Human Interfaces in Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Margerum, Sarah E.; Ferrer, Mike A.; Young, Karen S.; Rajulu, Sudhakar

2010-01-01

Designing space suits and vehicles for the diverse human population present unique challenges for the methods of traditional anthropometry. Space suits are bulky and allow the operator to shift position within the suit and inhibit the ability to identify body landmarks. Limited suit sizing options also cause variability in fit and performance between similarly sized individuals. Space vehicles are restrictive in volume in both the fit and the ability to collect data. NASA's Anthropometric and Biomechanics Facility (ABF) has utilized 3D scanning to shift from traditional linear anthropometry to explore and examine volumetric capabilities to provide anthropometric solutions for design. Overall, the key goals are to improve the human-system performance and develop new processes to aid in the design and evaluation of space systems. Four case studies are presented that illustrate the shift from purely linear analyses to an augmented volumetric toolset to predict and analyze the human within the space suit and vehicle. The first case study involves the calculation of maximal head volume to estimate total free volume in the helmet for proper air exchange. Traditional linear measurements resulted in an inaccurate representation of the head shape, yet limited data exists for the determination of a large head volume. Steps were first taken to identify and classify a maximum head volume and the resulting comparisons to the estimate are presented in this paper. This study illustrates the gap between linear components of anthropometry and the need for overall volume metrics in order to provide solutions. A second case study examines the overlay of the space suit scans and components onto scanned individuals to quantify fit and clearance to aid in sizing the suit to the individual. Restrictions in space suit size availability present unique challenges to optimally fit the individual within a limited sizing range while maintaining performance. Quantification of the clearance and fit between similarly sized individuals is critical in providing a greater understanding of the human body's function within the suit. The third case study presented in this paper explores the development of a conformal seat pan using scanning techniques, and details the challenges of volumetric analyses that were overcome in order to develop a universal seat pan that can be utilized across the entire user population. The final case study explores expanding volumetric capabilities through generation of boundary manikins. Boundary manikins are representative individuals from the population of interest that represent the extremes of the population spectrum. The ABF developed a technique to take three-dimensional scans of individuals and manipulate the scans to reflect the boundary manikins' anthropometry. In essence, this process generates a representative three-dimensional scan of an individual from anthropometry, using another individual's scanned image. The results from this process can be used in design process modeling and initial suit sizing work as a three dimensional, realistic example of individuals from the population, maintaining the variability between and correlation to the relevant dimensions of interest.

Reduced fecundity in small populations of the rare plant Gentianopsis ciliate (Gentianaceae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Matthies, D.

2004-01-01

Habitat destruction is the main cause for the biodiversity crisis. Surviving populations are often fragmented, i.e., small and isolated from each other. Reproduction of plants in small populations is often reduced, and this has been attributed to inbreeding depression, reduced attractiveness for pollinators, and reduced habitat quality in small populations. Here we present data on the effects of fragmentation on the rare, self-compatible perennial herb Gentianopsis ciliata (Gentianaceae), a species with very small and presumably well-dispersed seeds. We studied the relationship between population size, plant size, and the number of flowers produced in 63 populations from 1996-1998. In one of the years, leaf and flower size and the number of seeds produced per fruit was studied in a subset of 25 populations. Plant size, flower size, and the number of seeds per fruit and per plant increased with population size, whereas leaf length and the number of flowers per plant did not. The effects of population size on reproduction and on flower size remained significant if the effects were adjusted for differences in plant size, indicating that they could not be explained by differences in habitat quality. The strongly reduced reproduction in small populations may be due to pollination limitation, while the reduced flower size could indicate genetic effects.

Reduced fecundity in small populations of the rare plant Gentianopsis ciliate (Gentianaceae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, C.S.

1983-01-01

Habitat destruction is the main cause for the biodiversity crisis. Surviving populations are often fragmented, i.e., small and isolated from each other. Reproduction of plants in small populations is often reduced, and this has been attributed to inbreeding depression, reduced attractiveness for pollinators, and reduced habitat quality in small populations. Here we present data on the effects of fragmentation on the rare, self-compatible perennial herb Gentianopsis ciliata (Gentianaceae), a species with very small and presumably well-dispersed seeds. We studied the relationship between population size, plant size, and the number of flowers produced in 63 populations from 1996-1998. In one of the years, leaf and flower size and the number of seeds produced per fruit was studied in a subset of 25 populations. Plant size, flower size, and the number of seeds per fruit and per plant increased with population size, whereas leaf length and the number of flowers per plant did not. The effects of population size on reproduction and on flower size remained significant if the effects were adjusted for differences in plant size, indicating that they could not be explained by differences in habitat quality. The strongly reduced reproduction in small populations may be due to pollination limitation, while the reduced flower size could indicate genetic effects.

Using maximum entropy to predict suitable habitat for the endangered dwarf wedgemussel in the Maryland Coastal Plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Cara; Hilderbrand, Robert H.

2017-01-01

Species distribution modelling can be useful for the conservation of rare and endangered species. Freshwater mussel declines have thinned species ranges producing spatially fragmented distributions across large areas. Spatial fragmentation in combination with a complex life history and heterogeneous environment makes predictive modelling difficult.A machine learning approach (maximum entropy) was used to model occurrences and suitable habitat for the federally endangered dwarf wedgemussel, Alasmidonta heterodon, in Maryland's Coastal Plain catchments. Landscape-scale predictors (e.g. land cover, land use, soil characteristics, geology, flow characteristics, and climate) were used to predict the suitability of individual stream segments for A. heterodon.The best model contained variables at three scales: minimum elevation (segment scale), percentage Tertiary deposits, low intensity development, and woody wetlands (sub-catchment), and percentage low intensity development, pasture/hay agriculture, and average depth to the water table (catchment). Despite a very small sample size owing to the rarity of A. heterodon, cross-validated prediction accuracy was 91%.Most predicted suitable segments occur in catchments not known to contain A. heterodon, which provides opportunities for new discoveries or population restoration. These model predictions can guide surveys toward the streams with the best chance of containing the species or, alternatively, away from those streams with little chance of containing A. heterodon.Developed reaches had low predicted suitability for A. heterodon in the Coastal Plain. Urban and exurban sprawl continues to modify stream ecosystems in the region, underscoring the need to preserve existing populations and to discover and protect new populations.

The importance of environmental variability and management control error to optimal harvest policies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunter, C.M.; Runge, M.C.

2004-01-01

State-dependent strategies (SDSs) are the most general form of harvest policy because they allow the harvest rate to depend, without constraint, on the state of the system. State-dependent strategies that provide an optimal harvest rate for any system state can be calculated, and stochasticity can be appropriately accommodated in this optimization. Stochasticity poses 2 challenges to harvest policies: (1) the population will never be at the equilibrium state; and (2) stochasticity induces uncertainty about future states. We investigated the effects of 2 types of stochasticity, environmental variability and management control error, on SDS harvest policies for a white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) model, and contrasted these with a harvest policy based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Increasing stochasticity resulted in more conservative SDSs; that is, higher population densities were required to support the same harvest rate, but these effects were generally small. As stochastic effects increased, SDSs performed much better than MSY. Both deterministic and stochastic SDSs maintained maximum mean annual harvest yield (AHY) and optimal equilibrium population size (Neq) in a stochastic environment, whereas an MSY policy could not. We suggest 3 rules of thumb for harvest management of long-lived vertebrates in stochastic systems: (1) an SDS is advantageous over an MSY policy, (2) using an SDS rather than an MSY is more important than whether a deterministic or stochastic SDS is used, and (3) for SDSs, rankings of the variability in management outcomes (e.g., harvest yield) resulting from parameter stochasticity can be predicted by rankings of the deterministic elasticities.

Does source population size affect performance in new environments?

PubMed Central

Yates, Matthew C; Fraser, Dylan J

2014-01-01

Small populations are predicted to perform poorly relative to large populations when experiencing environmental change. To explore this prediction in nature, data from reciprocal transplant, common garden, and translocation studies were compared meta-analytically. We contrasted changes in performance resulting from transplantation to new environments among individuals originating from different sized source populations from plants and salmonids. We then evaluated the effect of source population size on performance in natural common garden environments and the relationship between population size and habitat quality. In ‘home-away’ contrasts, large populations exhibited reduced performance in new environments. In common gardens, the effect of source population size on performance was inconsistent across life-history stages (LHS) and environments. When transplanted to the same set of new environments, small populations either performed equally well or better than large populations, depending on life stage. Conversely, large populations outperformed small populations within native environments, but only at later life stages. Population size was not associated with habitat quality. Several factors might explain the negative association between source population size and performance in new environments: (i) stronger local adaptation in large populations and antagonistic pleiotropy, (ii) the maintenance of genetic variation in small populations, and (iii) potential environmental differences between large and small populations. PMID:25469166

Comparison of Fluoroscopy and Computed Tomography for Tracheal Lumen Diameter Measurement and Determination of Intraluminal Stent Size in Healthy Dogs

PubMed Central

Williams, Jackie M.; Krebs, Ingar A.; Riedesel, Elizabeth A.; Zhao, Qianqian

2015-01-01

Tracheal collapse is a progressive airway disease that can ultimately result in complete airway obstruction. Intraluminal tracheal stents are a minimally invasive and viable treatment for tracheal collapse once the disease becomes refractory to medical management. Intraluminal stent size is chosen based on the maximum measured tracheal diameter during maximum inflation. The purpose of this prospective, cross-sectional study was to compare tracheal lumen diameter measurements and subsequent selected stent size using both fluoroscopy and CT and to evaluate inter- and intraobserver variability of the measurements. Seventeen healthy Beagles were anesthetized and imaged with fluoroscopy and CT with positive pressure ventilation to 20 cm H2O. Fluoroscopic and CT maximum tracheal diameters were measured by 3 readers. Three individual measurements were made at 8 pre-determined tracheal sites for dorsoventral (height) and laterolateral (width) dimensions. Tracheal diameters and stent sizes (based on the maximum tracheal diameter + 10%) were analyzed using a linear mixed model. CT tracheal lumen diameters were larger compared to fluoroscopy at all locations. When comparing modalities, fluoroscopic and CT stent sizes were statistically different. Greater overall variation in tracheal diameter measurement (height or width) existed for fluoroscopy compared to CT, both within and among observers. The greater tracheal diameter and lower measurement variability supported the use of CT for appropriate stent selection to minimize complications in veterinary patients. PMID:26784924

Inference of Epidemiological Dynamics Based on Simulated Phylogenies Using Birth-Death and Coalescent Models

PubMed Central

Boskova, Veronika; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian; Stadler, Tanja

2014-01-01

Quantifying epidemiological dynamics is crucial for understanding and forecasting the spread of an epidemic. The coalescent and the birth-death model are used interchangeably to infer epidemiological parameters from the genealogical relationships of the pathogen population under study, which in turn are inferred from the pathogen genetic sequencing data. To compare the performance of these widely applied models, we performed a simulation study. We simulated phylogenetic trees under the constant rate birth-death model and the coalescent model with a deterministic exponentially growing infected population. For each tree, we re-estimated the epidemiological parameters using both a birth-death and a coalescent based method, implemented as an MCMC procedure in BEAST v2.0. In our analyses that estimate the growth rate of an epidemic based on simulated birth-death trees, the point estimates such as the maximum a posteriori/maximum likelihood estimates are not very different. However, the estimates of uncertainty are very different. The birth-death model had a higher coverage than the coalescent model, i.e. contained the true value in the highest posterior density (HPD) interval more often (2–13% vs. 31–75% error). The coverage of the coalescent decreases with decreasing basic reproductive ratio and increasing sampling probability of infecteds. We hypothesize that the biases in the coalescent are due to the assumption of deterministic rather than stochastic population size changes. Both methods performed reasonably well when analyzing trees simulated under the coalescent. The methods can also identify other key epidemiological parameters as long as one of the parameters is fixed to its true value. In summary, when using genetic data to estimate epidemic dynamics, our results suggest that the birth-death method will be less sensitive to population fluctuations of early outbreaks than the coalescent method that assumes a deterministic exponentially growing infected population. PMID:25375100

Demography and ecology of mangrove diamondback terrapins in a wilderness area of Everglades National Park, Florida, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hart, K.M.; McIvor, C.C.

2008-01-01

Diamondback Terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) are distributed in brackish water habitats along the U.S. east coast from Massachusetts to Texas, but many populations may be in decline. Whereas ample morphological, behavioral, and reproductive information has been collected for terrapins living in temperate salt marsh habitats, comparatively little is known about mangrove terrapins. To understand population structure of mangrove M. terrapin living in a wilderness area, we conducted a capture-recapture study in the remote, protected Big Sable Creek complex of Everglades National Park, Florida. The goals of the study were to collect baseline demographic data and to compare population structure and growth rates of mangrove terrapins with what is known for more well studied salt marsh terrapins in locations that experience human-imposed threats. We marked 300 terrapins; the sex ratio was 1 female:1.2 males. Considerable sexual size dimorphism was apparent, with reproductively mature females three times larger (by mass) than mature males. Eighty percent of females and 94% of males were classified as mature, based on straight plastron length (SPL). For a subset of terrapins not yet at maximum size (n = 39), we measured growth as a change in straight carapace length over time of 0.3-26.4 mm/yr for females (n = 26) and 0.9-14.5 mm/yr for males (n = 13). Our study presents the first demographic data on mangrove M. terrapin in the coastal Everglades. ?? 2008 by the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists.

Impaired reproduction and individual growth of the water flea Daphnia magna as consequence of exposure to the non-ester pyrethroid etofenprox.

PubMed

Sancho, Encarna; Banegas, Sandra; Villarroel, María José; Ferrando, Dolores

2018-03-01

The effect of the pesticide etofenprox (0.76, 0.95, 1.18, 1.48, and 1.85 μg L -1 ) on survival, reproduction, and growth of Daphnia magna organisms was monitored using 21-day exposure tests. In order to test pesticide effects on D. magna, survival, length, mean total neonates per female, mean brood size, time to first reproduction, mean number broods per female, cumulative molting, and the population parameter intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) were used. Reproduction was seriously affected by etofenprox. Concentrations of etofenprox higher than 1.18 μg L -1 affected all the reproductive parameters analyzed as well as individual length. However, daphnids' survival after 21 days of pesticide exposure did not exhibited differences among experimental and control groups. The no observed effect concentration (NOEC), the lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC), and the maximum acceptable toxicant concentration (MATC) were calculated for the different parameters. A MATC estimation of 1.32 μg L -1 was calculated for mean brood size, mean number of broods per female, mean number of neonates per female, and the intrinsic rate of growth population. Etofenprox effect on the algae Nannochloris oculata was also evaluated. The selected etofenprox concentrations did not affect algal growth rate (μ) after 24 h; however, N. oculata exposed during 48 and 72 h to the highest etofenprox concentration showed a decreased in its population rate.

Common iliac artery aneurysms in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Armon, M P; Wenham, P W; Whitaker, S C; Gregson, R H; Hopkinson, B R

1998-03-01

To determine the incidence of common iliac artery (CIA) aneurysms in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) and to evaluate the relationship between AAA and CIA diameter. Spiral CT angiography was used to measure the maximum diameters of the abdominal aorta and the common iliac arteries of 215 patients with AAA. The median CIA diameter was 1.7 cm--significantly greater than the published mean of 1.25 (2 S.D. = 0.85-1.65) cm of an age-matched, non-vascular population. Thirty-four patients (16%) had unilateral and 26 patients (12%) bilateral CIA aneurysms > or = 2.4 cm diameter. Eight-six vessels (20%) were affected. Right CIA diameters were wider than left CIA diameters (p < 0.0001, Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed rank test). The correlation between AAA size and CIA diameter was weak. The AAA population has abnormally dilated common iliac arteries. In this population, common iliac artery aneurysms should be defined as those greater than 2.4 cm diameter. 20% of CIAs in patients with AAA are aneurysmal according to this definition.

A preliminary study of the Caprella scaura amphipod culture for potential use in aquaculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baeza-Rojano, Elena; Calero-Cano, Sandra; Hachero-Cruzado, Ismael; Guerra-García, José Manuel

2013-10-01

The caprellid amphipod Caprella scaura Templeton, 1836 was investigated as a mass culture organism, for potential use as natural prey in aquaculture. C. scaura showed good population growth during 3 months of culturing with nauplii of Artemia sp. and microalgae as food source. A final mean population size of 12,510.67 individuals/tank and a maximum density of 10,460 individuals m- 2 were obtained; a 50-fold increase of the initial population was observed. Juveniles were the most abundant stage in the culture (86.0% of total), followed by mature females (5.4%) and immature males (3.1%). Three kinds of plastic mesh with different complexity levels were used as artificial substrates for amphipods to attach to and shelter. There were no significant differences in the total number of individuals present on each kind of mesh, although female and male adults were more abundant in folded meshes with larger pore diameter. This research demonstrated that the caprellid amphipod C. scaura may be readily cultured at high densities with a variety of mesh morphologies allowing more efficient use of tank volume and improved handling.

Population demographics and genetic diversity in remnant and translocated populations of sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Cronin, M.A.; Scribner, K.T.

1999-01-01

The effects of small population size on genetic diversity and subsequent population recovery are theoretically predicted, but few empirical data are available to describe those relations. We use data from four remnant and three translocated sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations to examine relations among magnitude and duration of minimum population size, population growth rates, and genetic variation. Metochondrial (mt)DNA haplotype diversity was correlated with the number of years at minimum population size (r = -0.741, p = 0.038) and minimum population size (r = 0.709, p = 0.054). We found no relation between population growth and haplotype diversity, altough growth was significantly greater in translocated than in remnant populations. Haplotype diversity in populations established from two sources was higher than in a population established from a single source and was higher than in the respective source populations. Haplotype frequencies in translocated populations of founding sizes of 4 and 28 differed from expected, indicating genetic drift and differential reproduction between source populations, whereas haplotype frequencies in a translocated population with a founding size of 150 did not. Relations between population demographics and genetic characteristics suggest that genetic sampling of source and translocated populations can provide valuable inferences about translocations.

Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution.

PubMed

Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Visser, Marcel E; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar

2016-04-27

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size. © 2016 The Author(s).

Origins and spread of agriculture in Italy: a nonmetric dental analysis.

PubMed

Coppa, A; Cucina, A; Lucci, M; Mancinelli, D; Vargiu, R

2007-07-01

Dental morphological traits were employed in this study as direct indicators of biological affinities among the populations that inhabited the Italian peninsula from the Upper Paleolithic-Mesolithic to Medieval times. Our analysis aims at contributing to the ongoing debate regarding the origin and spread of agriculture in the peninsula by contrasting the dental evidence of archaeological and modern molecular samples. It is not possible to generalize given the complex and dynamic nature of these populations. However, the results from the principal component analysis, maximum likelihood, mean measure of divergence, and multidimensional scaling do indicate a net separation of the Paleo-Mesolithic sample from the other groups that is not related to dental reduction. This suggests that the shift in dental morphology was the product of Neolithic populations migrating into the peninsula from other areas. Nonetheless, the Paleo-Mesolithic populations share several discriminative traits with the Neolithic group. The biological relevance of such evidence suggests that, to some minor extent, the spread of agriculture did not occur by total population replacement. Because of regional small sample sizes, this hypothesis cannot be tested on a micro-regional scale. It is, however, feasible to depict a scenario where processes of genetic mixture or replacement probably took place at different rates on a macro-regional level. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Climate, not Aboriginal landscape burning, controlled the historical demography and distribution of fire-sensitive conifer populations across Australia

PubMed Central

Sakaguchi, Shota; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Prior, Lynda D.; Crisp, Michael D.; Linde, Celeste C.; Tsumura, Yoshihiko; Isagi, Yuji

2013-01-01

Climate and fire are the key environmental factors that shape the distribution and demography of plant populations in Australia. Because of limited palaeoecological records in this arid continent, however, it is unclear as to which factor impacted vegetation more strongly, and what were the roles of fire regime changes owing to human activity and megafaunal extinction (since ca 50 kya). To address these questions, we analysed historical genetic, demographic and distributional changes in a widespread conifer species complex that paradoxically grows in fire-prone regions, yet is very sensitive to fire. Genetic demographic analysis showed that the arid populations experienced strong bottlenecks, consistent with range contractions during the Last Glacial Maximum (ca 20 kya) predicted by species distribution models. In southern temperate regions, the population sizes were estimated to have been mostly stable, followed by some expansion coinciding with climate amelioration at the end of the last glacial period. By contrast, in the flammable tropical savannahs, where fire risk is the highest, demographic analysis failed to detect significant population bottlenecks. Collectively, these results suggest that the impact of climate change overwhelmed any modifications to fire regimes by Aboriginal landscape burning and megafaunal extinction, a finding that probably also applies to other fire-prone vegetation across Australia. PMID:24174110

Food resource effects on diel movements and body size of cisco in north-temperate lakes.

PubMed

Ahrenstorff, Tyler D; Hrabik, Thomas R; Jacobson, Peter C; Pereira, Donald L

2013-12-01

The movement patterns and body size of fishes are influenced by a host of physical and biological conditions, including temperature and oxygen, prey densities and foraging potential, growth optimization, and predation risk. Our objectives were to (1) investigate variability in vertical movement patterns of cisco (Coregonus artedi) in a variety of inland lakes using hydroacoustics, (2) explore the causal mechanisms influencing movements through the use of temperature/oxygen, foraging, growth, and predation risk models, and (3) examine factors that may contribute to variations in cisco body size by considering all available information. Our results show that cisco vertical movements vary substantially, with different populations performing normal diel vertical migrations (DVM), no DVM, and reverse DVM in lakes throughout Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, USA. Cisco populations with the smallest body size were found in lakes with lower zooplankton densities. These smaller fish showed movements to areas of highest foraging or growth potential during the day and night, despite moving out of preferred temperature and oxygen conditions and into areas of highest predation risk. In lakes with higher zooplankton densities, cisco grew larger and had movements more consistent with behavioral thermoregulation and predator avoidance, while remaining in areas with less than maximum foraging and growth potential. Furthermore, the composition of potential prey items present in each lake was also important. Cisco that performed reverse DVM consumed mostly copepods and cladocerans, while cisco that exhibited normal DVM or no migration consumed proportionally more macro-zooplankton species. Overall, our results show previously undocumented variation in migration patterns of a fish species, the mechanisms underlying those movements, and the potential impact on their growth potential.

On the size and distribution of rings and coherent vortices in the Sargasso Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luce, David L.; Rossby, Tom

2008-05-01

The container motor vessel CMV Oleander, which operates between New Jersey and Bermuda, crosses the Gulf Stream and Sargasso Sea all year round on a semiweekly schedule. Using an acoustic Doppler current profiler, measurements of upper ocean currents have been made on a regular basis since the fall of 1992. In this paper we examine the database for evidence of axisymmetric coherent vortices including the distribution and intensity of cold core rings. To detect the existence of coherent vortices, the patterns of current vectors averaged between 40 and 80 m depth were fit to an axisymmetric Gaussian vortex model. The parameters of the model were axis location, maximum tangential, or swirl, speed, and radius at which the maximum swirl was measured. We were able to distinguish between the well-known cold core "rings" (CCRs) pinched from the Gulf Stream, and a population of cyclonic and anticyclonic "vortices" in the Sargasso Sea. Both the rings and the Sargasso Sea vortices showed radii of 64 ± 18 km, albeit with different swirl speeds. The rings, close to the Gulf Stream, exhibited a typical maximum swirl speed of 0.98 ± 0.40 m s-1 and a center relative vorticity of 0.64 ± 0.35 × 10-4 s-1, almost 80% of the planetary vorticity for the region. The more uniform population of Sargasso Sea vortices contained approximately equal numbers of cyclones and anticyclones, with mean speeds of +0.43 and -0.55 m s-1, and center relative vorticities of +0.24 × 10-4 s-1 and -0.29 × 10-4 s-1, respectively.

Measuring the Strength of the Horned Passalus Beetle, Odontotaenius disjunctus: Revisiting an Old Topic with Modern Technology

PubMed Central

Davis, Andrew K.; Attarha, Barrett; Piefke, Taylor J.

2013-01-01

Over a century ago, a pioneering researcher cleverly devised a means to measure how much weight the horned passalus beetle, Odontotaenius disjunctus (Illiger) (Coleoptera: Passalidae), could pull using a series of springs, pulleys, and careful observation. The technology available in modern times now allows for more rigorous data collection on this topic, which could have a number of uses in scientific investigations. In this study, an apparatus was constructed using a dynamometer and a data logger in an effort to ascertain the pulling strength of this species. By allowing beetles to pull for 10 min, each beetle's mean and maximum pulling force (in Newtons) were obtained for analyses, and whether these measures are related was determined. Then, whether factors such as body length, thorax size, horn size, or gender affect either measure of strength was investigated. Basic body measurements, including horn size, of males versus females were compared. The measurements of 38 beetles (20 females, 18 males) showed there was no difference in overall body length between sexes, but females had greater girth (thorax width) than males, which could translate into larger muscle mass. A total of 21 beetles (10 females, 11 males) were tested for pulling strength. The grand mean pulling force was 0.14 N, and the grand mean maximum was 0.78 N. Despite the fact that beetles tended to pull at 20% of their maximum capacity most of the time, and that maximum force was over 5 times larger than the mean force, the 2 measures were highly correlated, suggesting they may be interchangeable for research purposes. Females had twice the pulling strength (both maximum and mean force) as males in this species overall, but when the larger thorax size of females was considered, the effect of gender was not significant. Beetle length was not a significant predictor of pulling force, but horn size was associated with maximum force. The best predictor of both measures of strength appeared to be thorax size. There are a multitude of interesting scientific questions that could be addressed using data on beetle pulling strength, and this project serves as a starting point for such work. PMID:24735074

[Effect of gap size between tooth and restorative materials on microbiolism based caries in vitro].

PubMed

Lu, Wen-bin; Li, Yun

2012-05-01

To evaluate the effect of gap size between tooth and restorative materials on microbiolism based caries in vitro. Tooth blocks made of human molars without caries and the same size composite resin blocks were selected and prepared. Tooth-resin matrix was mounted on resin base with a gap size of 0, 25, 50, 100, 190, 250 µm and a control group was dealed with adhesive system. Six experimental groups and one control group were included, with 8 samples in one group and a total of 56 samples. The samples were cultured by a 14-day sequential batch culture technique. The development of outer surface lesion and wall lesion was assessed with confocal laser scanning microscope (CLSM) by measuring the maximum lesion depth, fluorescence areas and average fluorescence value. The data were collected and statistically analyzed. The deposits of the tooth-restoration interface and the development of the carious lesion were observed by scanning electron microscope (SEM). Most groups showed outer surface lesion and wall surface lesions observed by CLSM and SEM except 2 samples in control group. There was no significant difference on the outer surface lesion (P > 0.05). The maximum lesion depth [(1145.37 ± 198.98), (1190.12 ± 290.80) µm respectively], the maximum lesion length, fluorescence areas and average fluorescence value of 190 and 250 µm groups' wall lesions were significantly higher than the 0, 25, 50 and 100 µm groups [the maximum lesion depth was (205.25 ± 122.61), (303.87 ± 118.80), (437.75 ± 154.88), (602.87 ± 269.13) µm respectively], P < 0.01. With the increase of the gap size, the demineralization developed more seriously. While the maximum lesion depth, the maximum lesion length and fluorescence areas of 0, 25, 50 µm groups' wall lesions were of no significant difference. There was close relationship between gap size and wall lesion when the gap was above 100 µm at tooth-composite resin interface. The existence of gap was the main influencing factor on the development of microbiolism based caries lesion.

Present-Day Genetic Structure of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) in Icelandic Rivers and Ice-Cap Retreat Models

PubMed Central

Olafsson, Kristinn; Pampoulie, Christophe; Hjorleifsdottir, Sigridur; Gudjonsson, Sigurdur; Hreggvidsson, Gudmundur O.

2014-01-01

Due to an improved understanding of past climatological conditions, it has now become possible to study the potential concordance between former climatological models and present-day genetic structure. Genetic variability was assessed in 26 samples from different rivers of Atlantic salmon in Iceland (total of 2,352 individuals), using 15 microsatellite loci. F-statistics revealed significant differences between the majority of the populations that were sampled. Bayesian cluster analyses using both prior information and no prior information on sampling location revealed the presence of two distinguishable genetic pools - namely, the Northern (Group 1) and Southern (Group 2) regions of Iceland. Furthermore, the random permutation of different allele sizes among allelic states revealed a significant mutational component to the genetic differentiation at four microsatellite loci (SsaD144, Ssa171, SSsp2201 and SsaF3), and supported the proposition of a historical origin behind the observed variation. The estimated time of divergence, using two different ABC methods, suggested that the observed genetic pattern originated from between the Last Glacial Maximum to the Younger Dryas, which serves as additional evidence of the relative immaturity of Icelandic fish populations, on account of the re-colonisation of this young environment following the Last Glacial Maximum. Additional analyses suggested the presence of several genetic entities which were likely to originate from the original groups detected. PMID:24498283

GpIIb/IIIa+ subpopulation of rat megakaryocyte progenitor cells exhibits high responsiveness to human thrombopoietin.

PubMed

Kato, T; Horie, K; Hagiwara, T; Maeda, E; Tsumura, H; Ohashi, H; Miyazaki, H

1996-08-01

The recently cloned factor thrombopoietin (TPO) has been shown to exhibit megakaryocyte colony-stimulating activity in vitro. In this investigation, to further evaluate the action of TPO on megakaryocyte progenitor cells (colony-forming units-megakaryocyte [CFU-MK]), GpIIb/IIIa+ and GpIIb/IIIa- populations of CFU-MK were prepared from rat bone marrow cells based on their reactivity with P55 antibody, a monoclonal antibody against rat GpIIb/IIIa, and their responsiveness to recombinant human TPO (rhTPO) and recombinant rat interleukin-3 (rrIL-3) was examined using a megakaryocyte colony-forming assay (Meg-CSA). rhTPO supported only megakaryocyte colony growth from both fractions in a dose-dependent fashion. The mean colony size observed with the GpIIb/IIIa+ population was smaller than that seen with the GpIIb/IIIa- population. With the optimal concentration of either rhTPO or rrIL-3, similar numbers of megakaryocyte colonies were formed from the GpIIb/IIIa+ population previously shown to be highly enriched for CFU-MK. In contrast, the maximum number of megakaryocyte colonies from the GpIIb/IIIa- population stimulated by rhTPO was only 24.2% of that achieved with rrIL-3. Morphologic analysis of rhTPO-promoted megakaryocyte colonies from the GpIIb/IIIa+ population showed that the average colony size was smaller but that the mean diameter of individual megakaryocytes was larger than in megakaryocyte colonies promoted with rrIL-3. rhTPO plus rrIL-3, each at suboptimal concentrations, had an additive effect on proliferation of CFU-MK in the GpIIb/IIIa+ fraction, whereas rhTPO plus murine IL-6 or murine granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (mG-M-CSF) modestly but significantly reduced megakaryocyte colony growth. These results indicate that TPO preferentially acts on GpIIb/IIIa+ late CFU-MK with lower proliferative capacity and interacts with some other cytokines in CFU-MK development.

Growth of the eye lens: II. Allometric studies.

PubMed

Augusteyn, Robert C

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the ontogeny and phylogeny of lens growth in a variety of species using allometry. Data on the accumulation of wet and/or dry lens weight as a function of bodyweight were obtained for 40 species and subjected to allometric analysis to examine ontogenic growth and compaction. Allometric analysis was also used to compare the maximum adult lens weights for 147 species with the maximum adult bodyweight and to compare lens volumes calculated from wet and dry weights with eye volumes calculated from axial length. Linear allometric relationships were obtained for the comparison of ontogenic lens and bodyweight accumulation. The body mass exponent (BME) decreased with increasing animal size from around 1.0 in small rodents to 0.4 in large ungulates for both wet and dry weights. Compaction constants for the ontogenic growth ranged from 1.00 in birds and reptiles up to 1.30 in mammals. Allometric comparison of maximum lens wet and dry weights with maximum bodyweights also yielded linear plots with a BME of 0.504 for all warm blooded species except primates which had a BME of 0.25. When lens volumes were compared with eye volumes, all species yielded a scaling constant of 0.75 but the proportionality constants for primates and birds were lower. Ontogenic lens growth is fastest, relative to body growth, in small animals and slowest in large animals. Fiber cell compaction takes place throughout life in most species, but not in birds and reptiles. Maximum adult lens size scales with eye size with the same exponent in all species, but birds and primates have smaller lenses relative to eye size than other species. Optical properties of the lens are generated through the combination of variations in the rate of growth, rate of compaction, shape and size.

On the absence of a correlation between population size and 'toolkit size' in ethnographic hunter-gatherers.

PubMed

Aoki, Kenichi

2018-04-05

In apparent contradiction to the theoretically predicted effect of population size on the quality/quantity of material culture, statistical analyses on ethnographic hunter-gatherers have shown an absence of correlation between population size and toolkit size. This has sparked a heated, if sometimes tangential, debate as to the usefulness of the theoretical models and as to what modes of cultural transmission humans are capable of and hunter-gatherers rely on. I review the directly relevant theoretical literature and argue that much of the confusion is caused by a mismatch between the theoretical variable and the empirical observable. I then confirm that a model incorporating the appropriate variable does predict a positive association between population size and toolkit size for random oblique, vertical, best-of- K , conformist, anticonformist, success bias and one-to-many cultural transmission, with the caveat that for all populations sampled, the population size has remained constant and toolkit size has reached the equilibrium for this population size. Finally, I suggest three theoretical scenarios, two of them involving variable population size, that would attenuate or eliminate this association and hence help to explain the empirical absence of correlation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Population size is weakly related to quantitative genetic variation and trait differentiation in a stream fish.

PubMed

Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Tezel, Defne; Joyal, Destin; Fraser, Dylan J

2015-09-01

How population size influences quantitative genetic variation and differentiation among natural, fragmented populations remains unresolved. Small, isolated populations might occupy poor quality habitats and lose genetic variation more rapidly due to genetic drift than large populations. Genetic drift might furthermore overcome selection as population size decreases. Collectively, this might result in directional changes in additive genetic variation (VA ) and trait differentiation (QST ) from small to large population size. Alternatively, small populations might exhibit larger variation in VA and QST if habitat fragmentation increases variability in habitat types. We explored these alternatives by investigating VA and QST using nine fragmented populations of brook trout varying 50-fold in census size N (179-8416) and 10-fold in effective number of breeders, Nb (18-135). Across 15 traits, no evidence was found for consistent differences in VA and QST with population size and almost no evidence for increased variability of VA or QST estimates at small population size. This suggests that (i) small populations of some species may retain adaptive potential according to commonly adopted quantitative genetic measures and (ii) populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions in nature, however extremely large studies are likely required before any firm conclusions can be made. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Making It Count: Improving Estimates of the Size of Transgender and Gender Nonconforming Populations.

PubMed

Deutsch, Madeline B

2016-06-01

An accurate estimate of the number of transgender and gender nonconforming people is essential to inform policy and funding priorities and decisions. Historical reports of population sizes of 1 in 4000 to 1 in 50,000 have been based on clinical populations and likely underestimate the size of the transgender population. More recent population-based studies have found a 10- to 100-fold increase in population size. Studies that estimate population size should be population based, employ the two-step method to allow for collection of both gender identity and sex assigned at birth, and include measures to capture the range of transgender people with nonbinary gender identities.

The effect of seasonal harvesting on stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Tang, Sanyi; Chen, Lansun

2004-04-01

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose an exploited single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a fish population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Since birth pulse populations are often characterized with a discrete time dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under seasonal dependence and obtain threshold conditions for their stability, and show that the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the persistence of the fish population, on the volume of mature fish stock and on the maximum annual-sustainable yield. Moreover, our results imply that the population can sustain much higher harvest rates if the mature fish is removed as early in the season (after the birth pulse) as possible. Further, the effects of harvesting effort and harvest timing on the dynamical complexity are also investigated. Bifurcation diagrams are constructed with the birth rate (or harvesting effort or harvest timing) as the bifurcation parameter, and these are observed to display rich structure, including chaotic bands with periodic windows, pitch-fork and tangent bifurcations, non-unique dynamics (meaning that several attractors coexist) and attractor crisis. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that makes the dynamical behavior more complex.

Comparing methods of analysing datasets with small clusters: case studies using four paediatric datasets.

PubMed

Marston, Louise; Peacock, Janet L; Yu, Keming; Brocklehurst, Peter; Calvert, Sandra A; Greenough, Anne; Marlow, Neil

2009-07-01

Studies of prematurely born infants contain a relatively large percentage of multiple births, so the resulting data have a hierarchical structure with small clusters of size 1, 2 or 3. Ignoring the clustering may lead to incorrect inferences. The aim of this study was to compare statistical methods which can be used to analyse such data: generalised estimating equations, multilevel models, multiple linear regression and logistic regression. Four datasets which differed in total size and in percentage of multiple births (n = 254, multiple 18%; n = 176, multiple 9%; n = 10 098, multiple 3%; n = 1585, multiple 8%) were analysed. With the continuous outcome, two-level models produced similar results in the larger dataset, while generalised least squares multilevel modelling (ML GLS 'xtreg' in Stata) and maximum likelihood multilevel modelling (ML MLE 'xtmixed' in Stata) produced divergent estimates using the smaller dataset. For the dichotomous outcome, most methods, except generalised least squares multilevel modelling (ML GH 'xtlogit' in Stata) gave similar odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals within datasets. For the continuous outcome, our results suggest using multilevel modelling. We conclude that generalised least squares multilevel modelling (ML GLS 'xtreg' in Stata) and maximum likelihood multilevel modelling (ML MLE 'xtmixed' in Stata) should be used with caution when the dataset is small. Where the outcome is dichotomous and there is a relatively large percentage of non-independent data, it is recommended that these are accounted for in analyses using logistic regression with adjusted standard errors or multilevel modelling. If, however, the dataset has a small percentage of clusters greater than size 1 (e.g. a population dataset of children where there are few multiples) there appears to be less need to adjust for clustering.

Theory of the intermediate stage of crystal growth with applications to insulin crystallization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlow, D. A.

2017-07-01

A theory for the intermediate stage of crystal growth, where two defining equations one for population continuity and another for mass-balance, is used to study the kinetics of the supersaturation decay, the homogeneous nucleation rate, the linear growth rate and the final distribution of crystal sizes for the crystallization of bovine and porcine insulin from solution. The cited experimental reports suggest that the crystal linear growth rate is directly proportional to the square of the insulin concentration in solution for bovine insulin and to the cube of concentration for porcine. In a previous work, it was shown that the above mentioned system could be solved for the case where the growth rate is directly proportional to the normalized supersaturation. Here a more general solution is presented valid for cases where the growth rate is directly proportional to the normalized supersaturation raised to the power of any positive integer. The resulting expressions for the time dependent normalized supersaturation and crystal size distribution are compared with experimental reports for insulin crystallization. An approximation for the maximum crystal size at the end of the intermediate stage is derived. The results suggest that the largest crystal size in the distribution at the end of the intermediate stage is maximized when nucleation is restricted to be only homogeneous. Further, the largest size in the final distribution depends only weakly upon the initial supersaturation.

Plant Size and Competitive Dynamics along Nutrient Gradients.

PubMed

Goldberg, Deborah E; Martina, Jason P; Elgersma, Kenneth J; Currie, William S

2017-08-01

Resource competition theory in plants has focused largely on resource acquisition traits that are independent of size, such as traits of individual leaves or roots or proportional allocation to different functions. However, plants also differ in maximum potential size, which could outweigh differences in module-level traits. We used a community ecosystem model called mondrian to investigate whether larger size inevitably increases competitive ability and how size interacts with nitrogen supply. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that bigger is better, we found that invader success and competitive ability are unimodal functions of maximum potential size, such that plants that are too large (or too small) are disproportionately suppressed by competition. Optimal size increases with nitrogen supply, even when plants compete for nitrogen only in a size-symmetric manner, although adding size-asymmetric competition for light does substantially increase the advantage of larger size at high nitrogen. These complex interactions of plant size and nitrogen supply lead to strong nonlinearities such that small differences in nitrogen can result in large differences in plant invasion success and the influence of competition along productivity gradients.

The influence of synaptic size on AMPA receptor activation: a Monte Carlo model.

PubMed

Montes, Jesus; Peña, Jose M; DeFelipe, Javier; Herreras, Oscar; Merchan-Perez, Angel

2015-01-01

Physiological and electron microscope studies have shown that synapses are functionally and morphologically heterogeneous and that variations in size of synaptic junctions are related to characteristics such as release probability and density of postsynaptic AMPA receptors. The present article focuses on how these morphological variations impact synaptic transmission. We based our study on Monte Carlo computational simulations of simplified model synapses whose morphological features have been extracted from hundreds of actual synaptic junctions reconstructed by three-dimensional electron microscopy. We have examined the effects that parameters such as synaptic size or density of AMPA receptors have on the number of receptors that open after release of a single synaptic vesicle. Our results indicate that the maximum number of receptors that will open after the release of a single synaptic vesicle may show a ten-fold variation in the whole population of synapses. When individual synapses are considered, there is also a stochastical variability that is maximal in small synapses with low numbers of receptors. The number of postsynaptic receptors and the size of the synaptic junction are the most influential parameters, while the packing density of receptors or the concentration of extrasynaptic transporters have little or no influence on the opening of AMPA receptors.

The Influence of Synaptic Size on AMPA Receptor Activation: A Monte Carlo Model

PubMed Central

Montes, Jesus; Peña, Jose M.; DeFelipe, Javier; Herreras, Oscar; Merchan-Perez, Angel

2015-01-01

Physiological and electron microscope studies have shown that synapses are functionally and morphologically heterogeneous and that variations in size of synaptic junctions are related to characteristics such as release probability and density of postsynaptic AMPA receptors. The present article focuses on how these morphological variations impact synaptic transmission. We based our study on Monte Carlo computational simulations of simplified model synapses whose morphological features have been extracted from hundreds of actual synaptic junctions reconstructed by three-dimensional electron microscopy. We have examined the effects that parameters such as synaptic size or density of AMPA receptors have on the number of receptors that open after release of a single synaptic vesicle. Our results indicate that the maximum number of receptors that will open after the release of a single synaptic vesicle may show a ten-fold variation in the whole population of synapses. When individual synapses are considered, there is also a stochastical variability that is maximal in small synapses with low numbers of receptors. The number of postsynaptic receptors and the size of the synaptic junction are the most influential parameters, while the packing density of receptors or the concentration of extrasynaptic transporters have little or no influence on the opening of AMPA receptors. PMID:26107874

Lake sturgeon population characteristics in Rainy Lake, Minnesota and Ontario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, W.E.; Kallemeyn, L.W.; Willis, D.W.

2006-01-01

Rainy Lake contains a native population of lake sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens that has been largely unstudied. The aims of this study were to document the population characteristics of lake sturgeon in Rainy Lake and to relate environmental factors to year-class strength for this population. Gill-netting efforts throughout the study resulted in the capture of 322 lake sturgeon, including 50 recaptures. Lake sturgeon in Rainy Lake was relatively plump and fast growing compared with a 32-population summary. Population samples were dominated by lake sturgeon between 110 and 150 cm total length. Age–structure analysis of the samples indicated few younger (<10 years) lake sturgeon, but the smallest gill net mesh size used for sampling was 102 mm (bar measure) and would not retain small sturgeon. Few lake sturgeon older than age 50 years were captured, and maximum age of sampled fish was 59 years. Few correlations existed between lake sturgeon year-class indices and both annual and monthly climate variables, except that mean June air temperature was positively correlated with year-class strength. Analysis of Rainy Lake water elevation and resulting lake sturgeon year-class strength indices across years yielded consistent but weak negative correlations between late April and early June, when spawning of lake sturgeon occurs. The baseline data collected in this study should allow Rainy Lake biologists to establish more specific research questions in the future.

Climate variables explain neutral and adaptive variation within salmonid metapopulations: The importance of replication in landscape genetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hand, Brian K.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Wade, Alisa A.; Kovach, Ryan; Whited, Diane C.; Narum, Shawn R.; Matala, Andrew P.; Ackerman, Michael W.; Garner, B. A.; Kimball, John S; Stanford, Jack A.; Luikart, Gordon

2016-01-01

Understanding how environmental variation influences population genetic structure is important for conservation management because it can reveal how human stressors influence population connectivity, genetic diversity and persistence. We used riverscape genetics modelling to assess whether climatic and habitat variables were related to neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation (population-specific and pairwise FST) within five metapopulations (79 populations, 4583 individuals) of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Columbia River Basin, USA. Using 151 putatively neutral and 29 candidate adaptive SNP loci, we found that climate-related variables (winter precipitation, summer maximum temperature, winter highest 5% flow events and summer mean flow) best explained neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation within metapopulations, suggesting that climatic variation likely influences both demography (neutral variation) and local adaptation (adaptive variation). However, we did not observe consistent relationships between climate variables and FST across all metapopulations, underscoring the need for replication when extrapolating results from one scale to another (e.g. basin-wide to the metapopulation scale). Sensitivity analysis (leave-one-population-out) revealed consistent relationships between climate variables and FST within three metapopulations; however, these patterns were not consistent in two metapopulations likely due to small sample sizes (N = 10). These results provide correlative evidence that climatic variation has shaped the genetic structure of steelhead populations and highlight the need for replication and sensitivity analyses in land and riverscape genetics.

Radiation-induced rib fracture after stereotactic body radiotherapy with a total dose of 54-56 Gy given in 9-7 fractions for patients with peripheral lung tumor: impact of maximum dose and fraction size.

PubMed

Aoki, Masahiko; Sato, Mariko; Hirose, Katsumi; Akimoto, Hiroyoshi; Kawaguchi, Hideo; Hatayama, Yoshiomi; Ono, Shuichi; Takai, Yoshihiro

2015-04-22

Radiation-induced rib fracture after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for lung cancer has been recently reported. However, incidence of radiation-induced rib fracture after SBRT using moderate fraction sizes with a long-term follow-up time are not clarified. We examined incidence and risk factors of radiation-induced rib fracture after SBRT using moderate fraction sizes for the patients with peripherally located lung tumor. During 2003-2008, 41 patients with 42 lung tumors were treated with SBRT to 54-56 Gy in 9-7 fractions. The endpoint in the study was radiation-induced rib fracture detected by CT scan after the treatment. All ribs where the irradiated doses were more than 80% of prescribed dose were selected and contoured to build the dose-volume histograms (DVHs). Comparisons of the several factors obtained from the DVHs and the probabilities of rib fracture calculated by Kaplan-Meier method were performed in the study. Median follow-up time was 68 months. Among 75 contoured ribs, 23 rib fractures were observed in 34% of the patients during 16-48 months after SBRT, however, no patients complained of chest wall pain. The 4-year probabilities of rib fracture for maximum dose of ribs (Dmax) more than and less than 54 Gy were 47.7% and 12.9% (p = 0.0184), and for fraction size of 6, 7 and 8 Gy were 19.5%, 31.2% and 55.7% (p = 0.0458), respectively. Other factors, such as D2cc, mean dose of ribs, V10-55, age, sex, and planning target volume were not significantly different. The doses and fractionations used in this study resulted in no clinically significant rib fractures for this population, but that higher Dmax and dose per fraction treatments resulted in an increase in asymptomatic grade 1 rib fractures.

The theoretical and political framing of the population factor in development

PubMed Central

Campbell, Martha; Bedford, Kathleen

2009-01-01

The silence about population growth in recent decades has hindered the ability of those concerned with ecological change, resource scarcity, health and educational systems, national security, and other global challenges to look with maximum objectivity at the problems they confront. Two central questions about population—(i) is population growth a problem? and (2) what causes fertility decline?—are often intertwined; if people think the second question implies possible coercion, or fear of upsetting cultures, they can be reluctant to talk about the first. The classic and economic theories explaining the demographic transition assume that couples want many children and they make decisions to have a smaller family when some socio-economic change occurs. However, there are numerous anomalies to this explanation. This paper suggests that the societal changes are neither necessary nor sufficient for family size to fall. Many barriers of non-evidence-based restrictive medical rules, cost, misinformation and social traditions exist between women and the fertility regulation methods and correct information they need to manage their family size. When these barriers are reduced, birth rates tend to decline. Many of the barriers reflect a patriarchal desire to control women, which can be largely explained by evolutionary biology. The theoretical explanations of fertility should (i) attach more weight to the many barriers to voluntary fertility regulation, (ii) recognize that a latent desire to control fertility may be far more prevalent among women than previously understood, and (iii) appreciate that women implicitly and rationally make benefit–cost analyses based on the information they have, wanting modern family planning only after they understand it is a safe option. Once it is understood that fertility can be lowered by purely voluntary means, comfort with talking about the population factor in development will rise. PMID:19770159

Effects of environmental covariates and density on the catchability of fish populations and interpretation of catch per unit effort trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Korman, Josh; Yard, Mike

2017-01-01

Article for outlet: Fisheries Research. Abstract: Quantifying temporal and spatial trends in abundance or relative abundance is required to evaluate effects of harvest and changes in habitat for exploited and endangered fish populations. In many cases, the proportion of the population or stock that is captured (catchability or capture probability) is unknown but is often assumed to be constant over space and time. We used data from a large-scale mark-recapture study to evaluate the extent of spatial and temporal variation, and the effects of fish density, fish size, and environmental covariates, on the capture probability of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Colorado River, AZ. Estimates of capture probability for boat electrofishing varied 5-fold across five reaches, 2.8-fold across the range of fish densities that were encountered, 2.1-fold over 19 trips, and 1.6-fold over five fish size classes. Shoreline angle and turbidity were the best covariates explaining variation in capture probability across reaches and trips. Patterns in capture probability were driven by changes in gear efficiency and spatial aggregation, but the latter was more important. Failure to account for effects of fish density on capture probability when translating a historical catch per unit effort time series into a time series of abundance, led to 2.5-fold underestimation of the maximum extent of variation in abundance over the period of record, and resulted in unreliable estimates of relative change in critical years. Catch per unit effort surveys have utility for monitoring long-term trends in relative abundance, but are too imprecise and potentially biased to evaluate population response to habitat changes or to modest changes in fishing effort.

Nanomesh phononic structures for low thermal conductivity and thermoelectric energy conversion materials

DOEpatents

Yu, Jen-Kan; Mitrovic, Slobodan; Heath, James R.

2016-08-16

A nanomesh phononic structure includes: a sheet including a first material, the sheet having a plurality of phononic-sized features spaced apart at a phononic pitch, the phononic pitch being smaller than or equal to twice a maximum phonon mean free path of the first material and the phononic size being smaller than or equal to the maximum phonon mean free path of the first material.

Microbiological Quality of Panicum maximum Grass Silage with Addition of Lactobacillus sp. as Starter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumarsih, S.; Sulistiyanto, B.; Utama, C. S.

2018-02-01

The aim of the research was to evaluate microbiological quality of Panicum maximum grass silage with addition Lactobacillus sp as starter. The completely randomized design was been used on this research with 4 treaments and 3 replications. The treatments were P0 ( Panicum maximum grass silage without addition Lactobacillus sp ), P1 ( Panicum maximum grass silage with 2% addition Lactobacillus sp), P2 (Panicum maximum grass silage with 4% addition Lactobacillus sp) and P3 (Panicum maximum grass silage with 6% addition Lactobacillus sp).The parameters were microbial populations of Panicum maximum grass silage (total lactic acid bacteria, total bacteria, total fungi, and Coliform bacteria. The data obtained were analyzed variance (ANOVA) and further tests performed Duncan’s Multiple Areas. The population of lactic acid bacteria was higher (P<0.05) and the total bacteria, fungi and Coliform were lower (P<0.05) with addition Lactobacillus sp. Microbiological quality of Panicum maximum grass silage with addition Lactobacillus sp was better than no addition Lactobacillus sp.

Gunnison sage-grouse lek site suitability modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ouren, Douglas S.; Ignizio, Drew A.; Siders, Melissa; Childers, Theresa; Tucker, Karen; Seward, Nathan

2014-01-01

In order to better understand and protect species with minimal or decreasing populations, it is imperative to determine their actual existing population size. The focal species for this project is the Gunnison sage-grouse (GUSG), which became a proposed endangered species under the Endangered Species Act, thus confirming the need for better population estimates. Lek site counting during mating season has historically been the primary method for estimating population size since the grouse are very difficult to count at other times of the year. The objective of this project was to use historical data and available technology to identify additional potential lekking sites. This was done by determining areas throughout the study area that have the same landscape characteristics as those where known lekking activities occur. More accurate population counts could be the outcome of locating more lek sites. One of the remaining seven GUSG populations, the Crawford population (estimated at 128 individuals) exists in an area that includes the Gunnison Gorge National Conservation Area and the northern portion of the Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park (our study area). While the Crawford population is small, it is still considered a self-sustaining population; the persistence and growth of this population directly contribute to genetic diversity conservation of this declining species. To date, only observational and anecdotal information about the Crawford population’s range, movements, and seasonal habitat use exist. From 1978 to the present, GUSG population monitoring has been accomplished through annual lek counts conducted each spring during GUSG mating season. Although this method has provided information on GUSG population trends, it is somewhat limited because counts are based only on known lekking sites and historically minimal efforts have been made to identify additional lek sites. To meet the objective of locating more potential lekking sites, we used a suite of spatial data, geographic information system tools, and maximum entropy species distribution tools. Based on expert knowledge and landscape variables, the modeling process evolved into a hybrid approach for delineating areas that would have a significant probability for supporting GUSG lekking activities. Based on model results, a sampling protocol was developed for model verification. The results of this project provide wildlife managers with a more sophisticated methodology to evaluate GUSG habitat for potential lekking sites.

A Systematic Review of Published Respondent-Driven Sampling Surveys Collecting Behavioral and Biologic Data.

PubMed

Johnston, Lisa G; Hakim, Avi J; Dittrich, Samantha; Burnett, Janet; Kim, Evelyn; White, Richard G

2016-08-01

Reporting key details of respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey implementation and analysis is essential for assessing the quality of RDS surveys. RDS is both a recruitment and analytic method and, as such, it is important to adequately describe both aspects in publications. We extracted data from peer-reviewed literature published through September, 2013 that reported collected biological specimens using RDS. We identified 151 eligible peer-reviewed articles describing 222 surveys conducted in seven regions throughout the world. Most published surveys reported basic implementation information such as survey city, country, year, population sampled, interview method, and final sample size. However, many surveys did not report essential methodological and analytical information for assessing RDS survey quality, including number of recruitment sites, seeds at start and end, maximum number of waves, and whether data were adjusted for network size. Understanding the quality of data collection and analysis in RDS is useful for effectively planning public health service delivery and funding priorities.

A new tool called DISSECT for analysing large genomic data sets using a Big Data approach

PubMed Central

Canela-Xandri, Oriol; Law, Andy; Gray, Alan; Woolliams, John A.; Tenesa, Albert

2015-01-01

Large-scale genetic and genomic data are increasingly available and the major bottleneck in their analysis is a lack of sufficiently scalable computational tools. To address this problem in the context of complex traits analysis, we present DISSECT. DISSECT is a new and freely available software that is able to exploit the distributed-memory parallel computational architectures of compute clusters, to perform a wide range of genomic and epidemiologic analyses, which currently can only be carried out on reduced sample sizes or under restricted conditions. We demonstrate the usefulness of our new tool by addressing the challenge of predicting phenotypes from genotype data in human populations using mixed-linear model analysis. We analyse simulated traits from 470,000 individuals genotyped for 590,004 SNPs in ∼4 h using the combined computational power of 8,400 processor cores. We find that prediction accuracies in excess of 80% of the theoretical maximum could be achieved with large sample sizes. PMID:26657010

Effect of bio-column composed of aged refuse on methane abatement--a novel configuration of biological oxidation in refuse landfill.

PubMed

Han, Dan; Zhao, Youcai; Xue, Binjie; Chai, Xiaoli

2010-01-01

An experimental bio-column composed of aged refuse was installed around the exhaust pipe as a new way to mitigate methane in refuse landfill. One of the objectives of this work was to assess the effect of aged refuse thickness in bio-column on reducing CH4 emissions. Over the study period, methane oxidation was observed at various thicknesses, 5 cm (small size), 10 cm (middle size) and 15 cm (large size), representing one to three times of pipeline diameters. The middle and large size both showed over 90% methane conversion, and the highest methane conversion rate of above 95% occurred in the middle-size column cell. Michaelis-Menten equation addressed the methanotrophs diffusion in different layers of the bio-columns. Maximum methanotrophic activity (Vmax) measured at the three thicknesses ranged from 6.4 x 10(-3) to 15.6 x 10(-3) units, and the half-saturation value (K(M)) ranged from 0.85% to 1.67%. Both the highest Vmax and K(M) were observed at the middle-size of the bio-column, as well as the largest methanotrophs population, suggesting a significant efficiency of methane mitigation happened in the optimum zone with greatest affinity and methanotrophic bacteria activities. Therefore, bio-column is a potential style for methane abatement in landfill, and the aged refuse both naturally formed and artificially placed in the column plays a critical role in CH4 emission.

Genome size variation in Corchorus olitorius (Malvaceae s.l.) and its correlation with elevation and phenotypic traits.

PubMed

Benor, Solomon; Fuchs, Jörg; Blattner, Frank R

2011-07-01

In this study, we report genome size variations in Corchorus olitorius L. (Malvaceae s.l.), a crop species known for its morphological plasticity and broad geographical distribution, and Corchorus capsularis L., the second widely cultivated species in the genus. Flow cytometric analyses were conducted with several tissues and nuclei isolation buffers using 69 accessions of C. olitorius and 4 accessions of C. capsularis, representing different habitats and geographical origins. The mean 2C nuclear DNA content (± SD) of C. olitorius was estimated to be 0.918 ± 0.011 pg, with a minimum of 0.882 ± 0.004 pg, and a maximum of 0.942 ± 0.004 pg. All studied plant materials were found to be diploid with 2n = 14. The genome size is negatively correlated with days to flowering (r = -0.29, p < 0.05) and positively with seed surface area (r = 0.38, p < 0.05). Moreover, a statistically significant positive correlation was detected between genome size and growing elevation (r = 0.59, p < 0.001) in wild populations. The mean 2C nuclear DNA content of C. capsularis was estimated to be 0.802 ± 0.008 pg. In comparison to other economically important crop species, the genome sizes of C. olitorius and C. capsularis are much smaller, and therewith closer to that of rice. The relatively small genome sizes will be of general advantage for any efforts into genomics or sequencing approaches of these species.

9 CFR 318.303 - Critical factors and the application of the process schedule.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... container; (3) Container orientation during thermal processing; (4) Product formulation; (5) Particle size; (6) Maximum thickness for flexible, and to some extent semirigid containers during thermal processing; (7) Maximum pH; (8) Percent salt; (9) Ingoing (or formulated) nitrite level (ppm); (10) Maximum water...

Temperature-dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Lindmark, Max; Huss, Magnus; Ohlberger, Jan; Gårdmark, Anna

2018-02-01

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature- and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage-structured consumer-resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage-specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage-structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size-temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size-temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size-specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Altitudinal variation in age and body size in Yunnan pond frog (Pelophylax pleuraden).

PubMed

Lou, Shang Ling; Jin, Long; Liu, Yan Hong; Mi, Zhi Ping; Tao, Gang; Tang, Yu Mei; Liao, Wen Bo

2012-08-01

Large-scale systematic patterns of body size are a basic concern of evolutionary biology. Identifying body size variation along altitudinal gradients may help us to understand the evolution of life history of animals. In this study, we investigated altitudinal variation in body size, age and growth rate in Chinese endemic frog, Pelophylax pleuraden. Data sampled from five populations covering an altitudinal span of 1413 to 1935 m in Sichuan province revealed that body size from five populations did not co-vary with altitudes, not following Bergmann's rule. Average adult SVL differed significantly among populations in males, but not in females. For both sexes, average adult age differed significantly among populations. Post-metamorphic growth rate did not co-vary with altitude, and females grew faster than males in all populations. When controlling the effect of age, body size did not differ among populations in both sexes, suggesting that age did not affect variation in body size among populations. For females, there may be other factors, such as the allocation of energy between growth and reproduction, that eliminated the effect of age on body size. To our minds, the major reason of body size variation among populations in male frogs may be related to individual longevity. Our findings also suggest that factors other than age and growth rate may contribute to size differences among populations.

Detecting negative selection on recurrent mutations using gene genealogy

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Whether or not a mutant allele in a population is under selection is an important issue in population genetics, and various neutrality tests have been invented so far to detect selection. However, detection of negative selection has been notoriously difficult, partly because negatively selected alleles are usually rare in the population and have little impact on either population dynamics or the shape of the gene genealogy. Recently, through studies of genetic disorders and genome-wide analyses, many structural variations were shown to occur recurrently in the population. Such “recurrent mutations” might be revealed as deleterious by exploiting the signal of negative selection in the gene genealogy enhanced by their recurrence. Results Motivated by the above idea, we devised two new test statistics. One is the total number of mutants at a recurrently mutating locus among sampled sequences, which is tested conditionally on the number of forward mutations mapped on the sequence genealogy. The other is the size of the most common class of identical-by-descent mutants in the sample, again tested conditionally on the number of forward mutations mapped on the sequence genealogy. To examine the performance of these two tests, we simulated recurrently mutated loci each flanked by sites with neutral single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), with no recombination. Using neutral recurrent mutations as null models, we attempted to detect deleterious recurrent mutations. Our analyses demonstrated high powers of our new tests under constant population size, as well as their moderate power to detect selection in expanding populations. We also devised a new maximum parsimony algorithm that, given the states of the sampled sequences at a recurrently mutating locus and an incompletely resolved genealogy, enumerates mutation histories with a minimum number of mutations while partially resolving genealogical relationships when necessary. Conclusions With their considerably high powers to detect negative selection, our new neutrality tests may open new venues for dealing with the population genetics of recurrent mutations as well as help identifying some types of genetic disorders that may have escaped identification by currently existing methods. PMID:23651527

Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2010-01-07

Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late Quaternary period were related to climate change. [Coalescent; effective population size; Gaussian Markov random fields; phylodynamics; phylogenetics; population genetics. PMID:27368344

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

PubMed Central

Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Genome size differentiates co-occurring populations of the planktonic diatom Ditylum brightwellii (Bacillariophyta)

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Diatoms are one of the most species-rich groups of eukaryotic microbes known. Diatoms are also the only group of eukaryotic micro-algae with a diplontic life history, suggesting that the ancestral diatom switched to a life history dominated by a duplicated genome. A key mechanism of speciation among diatoms could be a propensity for additional stable genome duplications. Across eukaryotic taxa, genome size is directly correlated to cell size and inversely correlated to physiological rates. Differences in relative genome size, cell size, and acclimated growth rates were analyzed in isolates of the diatom Ditylum brightwellii. Ditylum brightwellii consists of two main populations with identical 18s rDNA sequences; one population is distributed globally at temperate latitudes and the second appears to be localized to the Pacific Northwest coast of the USA. These two populations co-occur within the Puget Sound estuary of WA, USA, although their peak abundances differ depending on local conditions. Results All isolates from the more regionally-localized population (population 2) possessed 1.94 ± 0.74 times the amount of DNA, grew more slowly, and were generally larger than isolates from the more globally distributed population (population 1). The ITS1 sequences, cell sizes, and genome sizes of isolates from New Zealand were the same as population 1 isolates from Puget Sound, but their growth rates were within the range of the slower-growing population 2 isolates. Importantly, the observed genome size difference between isolates from the two populations was stable regardless of time in culture or the changes in cell size that accompany the diatom life history. Conclusions The observed two-fold difference in genome size between the D. brightwellii populations suggests that whole genome duplication occurred within cells of population 1 ultimately giving rise to population 2 cells. The apparent regional localization of population 2 is consistent with a recent divergence between the populations, which are likely cryptic species. Genome size variation is known to occur in other diatom genera; we hypothesize that genome duplication may be an active and important mechanism of genetic and physiological diversification and speciation in diatoms. PMID:20044934

Volume effects of late term normal tissue toxicity in prostate cancer radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonta, Dacian Viorel

Modeling of volume effects for treatment toxicity is paramount for optimization of radiation therapy. This thesis proposes a new model for calculating volume effects in gastro-intestinal and genito-urinary normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) following radiation therapy for prostate carcinoma. The radiobiological and the pathological basis for this model and its relationship to other models are detailed. A review of the radiobiological experiments and published clinical data identified salient features and specific properties a biologically adequate model has to conform to. The new model was fit to a set of actual clinical data. In order to verify the goodness of fit, two established NTCP models and a non-NTCP measure for complication risk were fitted to the same clinical data. The method of fit for the model parameters was maximum likelihood estimation. Within the framework of the maximum likelihood approach I estimated the parameter uncertainties for each complication prediction model. The quality-of-fit was determined using the Aikaike Information Criterion. Based on the model that provided the best fit, I identified the volume effects for both types of toxicities. Computer-based bootstrap resampling of the original dataset was used to estimate the bias and variance for the fitted parameter values. Computer simulation was also used to estimate the population size that generates a specific uncertainty level (3%) in the value of predicted complication probability. The same method was used to estimate the size of the patient population needed for accurate choice of the model underlying the NTCP. The results indicate that, depending on the number of parameters of a specific NTCP model, 100 (for two parameter models) and 500 patients (for three parameter models) are needed for accurate parameter fit. Correlation of complication occurrence in patients was also investigated. The results suggest that complication outcomes are correlated in a patient, although the correlation coefficient is rather small.

Effects of fasting and semistarvation on the kinetics of active and passive sugar absorption across the small intestine in vivo.

PubMed Central

Debnam, E S; Levin, R J

1975-01-01

The effects of dietary restriction on the kinetics of absorption in vivo of glucose, galactose and alpha-methyl glucoside were assessed by electrical and chemical methods in the rat jejunum. 2. The 'apparent Km', maximum absorption or Vmax (mu-mole/10 cm. 15 min) and maximum potential difference (p.d.max) were obtained for the jejunal electrogenic active transfer mechanism from the transfer p.d.s and the chemical absorption data corrected for diffusion using various graphical kinetic plots. 3. Fasting for 3 days greatly decreased the 'apparent Kms', obtained from electrical or chemical data, for all the sugars but had no effect on those for L-valine or L-methionine. Semistarvation caused a less pronounced reduction of the 'apparent Kms' for the sugars. The dietary-induced change in 'apparent Km' for glucose was also observed in the fasted hamster. One interpretation of these changes is that the affinity of the carriers for sugars increases during dietary restriction; the greater the level of restriction the greater the increase. 4. Fasting and semistarvation caused large reductions in the Vmax. These reductions were correlated with a reduced enterocyte population estimated by changes in enterocyte column size. 5. The reduction in the Vmax for galactose was mainly accounted for by the decrease in enterocyte population. In the case of glucose, other factors such as reduced enterocyte metabolism or changes in the carriers must be involved to explain the discrepancy between the large decrease in Vmax and the enterocyte column size. 6. Fasting and semi-starvation had complex, differential actions on the p.d.max for glucose, galactose and alpha-methyl glucoside. These changes did not correlate with those observed in the Vmax measured chemically. 7. A standard diet obtained from two commercial sources was found to differ greatly in its effect on the electrogenic transfer system for alpha-methyl glucoside but had no effect on those for galactose and glucose. PMID:1206572

Mating system and pollen dispersal in Eugenia dysenterica (Myrtaceae) germplasm collection: tools for conservation and domestication.

PubMed

Rodrigues, Eduardo B; Collevatti, Rosane G; Chaves, Lázaro J; Moreira, Lucas R; Telles, Mariana P C

2016-04-01

Eugenia dysenterica DC. (Myrtaceae) is a perennial tree producing edible fruits and ornamental flowers of potential value widely distributed in Brazilian "Cerrados" (savannas), but available genetic resources and potential for future breeding programs must be evaluated. Here we evaluated the reproductive system and pollen-mediated gene flow in one generation of Eugenia dysenterica germplasm collection of Agronomy School, Federal University of Goiás (in Goiânia city, Central Brazil). We collected leaves from all adults from the germplasm collection (682 plants) and seeds (542) from 23 mother-trees. Genotypes were obtained for seven microsatellite loci. Genetic diversity was high and did not significantly differ between adults (H e = 0.777) and progeny arrays (H e = 0.617). Our results showed that E. dysenterica has an allogamous mating system in the germplasm collection (t m = 0.957), but with high and significant biparental inbreeding (t m - t s = 0.109). Because sibs are very close to each other, mating between closely related individuals is likely. Paternity correlation was also relatively high, indicating a 11.9 % probability that a randomly chosen pair of outcrossed progeny from the same array are full sibs. The maximum pollen dispersal distance (224 m), estimated using assignment test, corresponded to the boundaries of the orchard. We were able to assign the paternity to only 64 % of the 349 seeds analyzed, indicating potential pollen immigration to the germplasm collection. The variance effective population size estimated for one maternal family in the germplasm collection (N ev = 3.42) is very close to the theoretical maximum value for half-sibs (Nev = 4.0). Because E. dysenterica has a long life cycle and generation time, the maintenance of an effective population size of at least 100 in the germplasm collection is suggested, which can be achieved by maintaining a seed-trees number around 30 individuals.

Relations between conspecific density and effects of ultraviolet-b radiation on tadpole size in the striped marsh frog.

PubMed

Mitchell, Toby; Alton, Lesley A; White, Craig R; Franklin, Craig E

2012-12-01

Global increases in ultraviolet-B radiation (UVBR) associated with stratospheric ozone depletion are potentially contributing to the decline of numerous amphibian species around the world. Exposure to UVBR alone reduces survival and induces a range of sublethal effects in embryonic and larval amphibians. When additional environmental stressors are present, UVBR can have compounding negative effects. Thus, examination of the effects of UVBR in the absence of other stressors may substantially underestimate its potential to affect amphibians in natural habitats. We examined the independent and interactive effects of increased UVBR and high conspecific density would have embryonic and larval striped marsh frogs (Limnodynastes peronii). We exposed individuals to a factorial combination of low and high UVBR levels and low, medium, and high densities of striped marsh frog tadpoles. The response variables were time to hatching, hatching success, posthatch survival, burst-swimming performance of tadpoles (maximum instantaneous swim speed following an escape response), and size and morphology of tadpoles. Consistent with results of previous studies, we found that exposure to UVBR alone increased the time to hatching of embryos and reduced the burst-swimming performance and size of tadpoles. Similarly, increasing conspecific density increased the time to hatching of embryos and reduced the size of tadpoles, but had no effect on burst-swimming performance. The negative effect of UVBR on tadpole size was not apparent at high densities of tadpoles. This result suggests that tadpoles living at higher densities may invest relatively less energy in growth and thus have more energy to repair UVBR-induced damage. Lower densities of conspecifics increased the negative effects of UVBR on developing amphibians. Thus, low-density populations, which may include declining populations, may be particularly susceptible to the detrimental effects of increased UVBR and thus may be driven toward extinction faster than might be expected on the basis of results from single-factor studies. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Adaptively resizing populations: Algorithm, analysis, and first results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Robert E.; Smuda, Ellen

1993-01-01

Deciding on an appropriate population size for a given Genetic Algorithm (GA) application can often be critical to the algorithm's success. Too small, and the GA can fall victim to sampling error, affecting the efficacy of its search. Too large, and the GA wastes computational resources. Although advice exists for sizing GA populations, much of this advice involves theoretical aspects that are not accessible to the novice user. An algorithm for adaptively resizing GA populations is suggested. This algorithm is based on recent theoretical developments that relate population size to schema fitness variance. The suggested algorithm is developed theoretically, and simulated with expected value equations. The algorithm is then tested on a problem where population sizing can mislead the GA. The work presented suggests that the population sizing algorithm may be a viable way to eliminate the population sizing decision from the application of GA's.

Effect of Stemming to Burden Ratio and Powder Factor on Blast Induced Rock Fragmentation- A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, Sandeep; Choudhary, B. S.; Mishra, A. K.

2017-08-01

Rock fragmentation size is very important parameters for economical point of view in any surface mining. Rock fragment size direct effects on the costs of drilling, blasting, loading, secondary blasting and crushing. The main purpose of this study is to investigate effect of blast design parameters such as burden, blast hole length, stemming length, and powder factor on rock fragmentation. The fragment sizes (MFS, K50, m), and maximum fragment size (K95, m) of rock were determined by using the computer software. For every blast, after blasting operation, the images of whole muck pile are captured and there images were used for fragmentation analysis by using the Fragalyst software. It was observed that the optimal fragment size (MFS, K50, m and maximum fragment size, K95, m) of rock depends strongly on the blast design parameters and explosive parameters.

Effect of freeze-thaw cycling on grain size of biochar.

PubMed

Liu, Zuolin; Dugan, Brandon; Masiello, Caroline A; Wahab, Leila M; Gonnermann, Helge M; Nittrouer, Jeffrey A

2018-01-01

Biochar may improve soil hydrology by altering soil porosity, density, hydraulic conductivity, and water-holding capacity. These properties are associated with the grain size distributions of both soil and biochar, and therefore may change as biochar weathers. Here we report how freeze-thaw (F-T) cycling impacts the grain size of pine, mesquite, miscanthus, and sewage waste biochars under two drainage conditions: undrained (all biochars) and a gravity-drained experiment (mesquite biochar only). In the undrained experiment plant biochars showed a decrease in median grain size and a change in grain-size distribution consistent with the flaking off of thin layers from the biochar surface. Biochar grain size distribution changed from unimodal to bimodal, with lower peaks and wider distributions. For plant biochars the median grain size decreased by up to 45.8% and the grain aspect ratio increased by up to 22.4% after 20 F-T cycles. F-T cycling did not change the grain size or aspect ratio of sewage waste biochar. We also observed changes in the skeletal density of biochars (maximum increase of 1.3%), envelope density (maximum decrease of 12.2%), and intraporosity (porosity inside particles, maximum increase of 3.2%). In the drained experiment, mesquite biochar exhibited a decrease of median grain size (up to 4.2%) and no change of aspect ratio after 10 F-T cycles. We also document a positive relationship between grain size decrease and initial water content, suggesting that, biochar properties that increase water content, like high intraporosity and pore connectivity large intrapores, and hydrophilicity, combined with undrained conditions and frequent F-T cycles may increase biochar breakdown. The observed changes in biochar particle size and shape can be expected to alter hydrologic properties, and thus may impact both plant growth and the hydrologic cycle.

Effect of freeze-thaw cycling on grain size of biochar

PubMed Central

Dugan, Brandon; Masiello, Caroline A.; Wahab, Leila M.; Gonnermann, Helge M.; Nittrouer, Jeffrey A.

2018-01-01

Biochar may improve soil hydrology by altering soil porosity, density, hydraulic conductivity, and water-holding capacity. These properties are associated with the grain size distributions of both soil and biochar, and therefore may change as biochar weathers. Here we report how freeze-thaw (F-T) cycling impacts the grain size of pine, mesquite, miscanthus, and sewage waste biochars under two drainage conditions: undrained (all biochars) and a gravity-drained experiment (mesquite biochar only). In the undrained experiment plant biochars showed a decrease in median grain size and a change in grain-size distribution consistent with the flaking off of thin layers from the biochar surface. Biochar grain size distribution changed from unimodal to bimodal, with lower peaks and wider distributions. For plant biochars the median grain size decreased by up to 45.8% and the grain aspect ratio increased by up to 22.4% after 20 F-T cycles. F-T cycling did not change the grain size or aspect ratio of sewage waste biochar. We also observed changes in the skeletal density of biochars (maximum increase of 1.3%), envelope density (maximum decrease of 12.2%), and intraporosity (porosity inside particles, maximum increase of 3.2%). In the drained experiment, mesquite biochar exhibited a decrease of median grain size (up to 4.2%) and no change of aspect ratio after 10 F-T cycles. We also document a positive relationship between grain size decrease and initial water content, suggesting that, biochar properties that increase water content, like high intraporosity and pore connectivity large intrapores, and hydrophilicity, combined with undrained conditions and frequent F-T cycles may increase biochar breakdown. The observed changes in biochar particle size and shape can be expected to alter hydrologic properties, and thus may impact both plant growth and the hydrologic cycle. PMID:29329343

Stock assessment of fishery target species in Lake Koka, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Tesfaye, Gashaw; Wolff, Matthias

2015-09-01

Effective management is essential for small-scale fisheries to continue providing food and livelihoods for households, particularly in developing countries where other options are often limited. Studies on the population dynamics and stock assessment on fishery target species are thus imperative to sustain their fisheries and the benefits for the society. In Lake Koka (Ethiopia), very little is known about the vital population parameters and exploitation status of the fishery target species: tilapia Oreochromis niloticus, common carp Cyprinus carpio and catfish Clarias gariepinus. Our study, therefore, aimed at determining the vital population parameters and assessing the status of these target species in Lake Koka using length frequency data collected quarterly from commercial catches from 2007-2012. A total of 20,097 fish specimens (distributed as 7,933 tilapia, 6,025 catfish and 6,139 common carp) were measured for the analysis. Von Bertalarffy growth parameters and their confidence intervals were determined from modal progression analysis using ELEFAN I and applying the jackknife technique. Mortality parameters were determined from length-converted catch curves and empirical models. The exploitation status of these target species were then assessed by computing exploitation rates (E) from mortality parameters as well as from size indicators i.e., assessing the size distribution of fish catches relative to the size at maturity (Lm), the size that provides maximum cohort biomass (Lopt) and the abundance of mega-spawners. The mean value of growth parameters L∞, K and the growth performance index ø' were 44.5 cm, 0.41/year and 2.90 for O. niloticus, 74.1 cm, 0.28/year and 3.19 for C. carpio and 121.9 cm, 0.16/year and 3.36 for C. gariepinus, respectively. The 95 % confidence intervals of the estimates were also computed. Total mortality (Z) estimates were 1.47, 0.83 and 0.72/year for O. niloticus, C. carpio and C. gariepinus, respectively. Our study suggest that O. niloticus is in a healthy state, while C. gariepinus show signs of growth overfishing (when both exploitation rate (E) and size indicators were considered). In case of C. carpio, the low exploitation rate encountered would point to underfishing, while the size indicators of the catches would suggest that too small fish are harvested leading to growth overfishing. We concluded that fisheries production in Lake Koka could be enhanced by increasing E toward optimum level of exploitation (Eopt) for the underexploited C. carpio and by increasing the size at first capture (Lc) toward the Lopt, range for all target species.

Go big or … don't? A field-based diet evaluation of freshwater piscivore and prey fish size relationships

PubMed Central

Ahrenstorff, Tyler D.; Diana, James S.; Fetzer, William W.; Jones, Thomas S.; Lawson, Zach J.; McInerny, Michael C.; Santucci, Victor J.; Vander Zanden, M. Jake

2018-01-01

Body size governs predator-prey interactions, which in turn structure populations, communities, and food webs. Understanding predator-prey size relationships is valuable from a theoretical perspective, in basic research, and for management applications. However, predator-prey size data are limited and costly to acquire. We quantified predator-prey total length and mass relationships for several freshwater piscivorous taxa: crappie (Pomoxis spp.), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), muskellunge (Esox masquinongy), northern pike (Esox lucius), rock bass (Ambloplites rupestris), smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and walleye (Sander vitreus). The range of prey total lengths increased with predator total length. The median and maximum ingested prey total length varied with predator taxon and length, but generally ranged from 10–20% and 32–46% of predator total length, respectively. Predators tended to consume larger fusiform prey than laterally compressed prey. With the exception of large muskellunge, predators most commonly consumed prey between 16 and 73 mm. A sensitivity analysis indicated estimates can be very accurate at sample sizes greater than 1,000 diet items and fairly accurate at sample sizes greater than 100. However, sample sizes less than 50 should be evaluated with caution. Furthermore, median log10 predator-prey body mass ratios ranged from 1.9–2.5, nearly 50% lower than values previously reported for freshwater fishes. Managers, researchers, and modelers could use our findings as a tool for numerous predator-prey evaluations from stocking size optimization to individual-based bioenergetics analyses identifying prey size structure. To this end, we have developed a web-based user interface to maximize the utility of our models that can be found at www.LakeEcologyLab.org/pred_prey. PMID:29543856

Go big or … don't? A field-based diet evaluation of freshwater piscivore and prey fish size relationships.

PubMed

Gaeta, Jereme W; Ahrenstorff, Tyler D; Diana, James S; Fetzer, William W; Jones, Thomas S; Lawson, Zach J; McInerny, Michael C; Santucci, Victor J; Vander Zanden, M Jake

2018-01-01

Body size governs predator-prey interactions, which in turn structure populations, communities, and food webs. Understanding predator-prey size relationships is valuable from a theoretical perspective, in basic research, and for management applications. However, predator-prey size data are limited and costly to acquire. We quantified predator-prey total length and mass relationships for several freshwater piscivorous taxa: crappie (Pomoxis spp.), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), muskellunge (Esox masquinongy), northern pike (Esox lucius), rock bass (Ambloplites rupestris), smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and walleye (Sander vitreus). The range of prey total lengths increased with predator total length. The median and maximum ingested prey total length varied with predator taxon and length, but generally ranged from 10-20% and 32-46% of predator total length, respectively. Predators tended to consume larger fusiform prey than laterally compressed prey. With the exception of large muskellunge, predators most commonly consumed prey between 16 and 73 mm. A sensitivity analysis indicated estimates can be very accurate at sample sizes greater than 1,000 diet items and fairly accurate at sample sizes greater than 100. However, sample sizes less than 50 should be evaluated with caution. Furthermore, median log10 predator-prey body mass ratios ranged from 1.9-2.5, nearly 50% lower than values previously reported for freshwater fishes. Managers, researchers, and modelers could use our findings as a tool for numerous predator-prey evaluations from stocking size optimization to individual-based bioenergetics analyses identifying prey size structure. To this end, we have developed a web-based user interface to maximize the utility of our models that can be found at www.LakeEcologyLab.org/pred_prey.

Rapid population divergence in thermal reaction norms for an invading species: breaking the temperature-size rule.

PubMed

Kingsolver, J G; Massie, K R; Ragland, G J; Smith, M H

2007-05-01

The temperature-size rule is a common pattern of phenotypic plasticity in which higher temperature during development results in a smaller adult body size (i.e. a thermal reaction norm with negative slope). Examples and exceptions to the rule are known in multiple groups of organisms, but rapid population differentiation in the temperature-size rule has not been explored. Here we examine the genetic and parental contributions to population differentiation in thermal reaction norms for size, development time and survival in the Cabbage White Butterfly Pieris rapae, for two geographical populations that have likely diverged within the past 150 years. We used split-sibship experiments with two temperature treatments (warm and cool) for P. rapae from Chapel Hill, NC, and from Seattle, WA. Mixed-effect model analyses demonstrate significant genetic differences between NC and WA populations for adult size and for thermal reaction norms for size. Mean adult mass was 12-24% greater in NC than in WA populations for both temperature treatments; mean size was unaffected or decreased with temperature (the temperature-size rule) for the WA population, but size increased with temperature for the NC population. Our study shows that the temperature-size rule and related thermal reaction norms can evolve rapidly within species in natural field conditions. Rapid evolutionary divergence argues against the existence of a simple, general mechanistic constraint as the underlying cause of the temperature-size rule.

Parabolic replicator dynamics and the principle of minimum Tsallis information gain

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Non-linear, parabolic (sub-exponential) and hyperbolic (super-exponential) models of prebiological evolution of molecular replicators have been proposed and extensively studied. The parabolic models appear to be the most realistic approximations of real-life replicator systems due primarily to product inhibition. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the distribution of individual frequencies in an evolving parabolic population is not described by the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Principle in its traditional form, whereby the distribution with the maximum Shannon entropy is chosen among all the distributions that are possible under the given constraints. We sought to identify a more general form of the MaxEnt principle that would be applicable to parabolic growth. Results We consider a model of a population that reproduces according to the parabolic growth law and show that the frequencies of individuals in the population minimize the Tsallis relative entropy (non-additive information gain) at each time moment. Next, we consider a model of a parabolically growing population that maintains a constant total size and provide an “implicit” solution for this system. We show that in this case, the frequencies of the individuals in the population also minimize the Tsallis information gain at each moment of the ‘internal time” of the population. Conclusions The results of this analysis show that the general MaxEnt principle is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of replicator systems including not only exponential but also parabolic and hyperbolic systems. The choice of the appropriate entropy (information) function depends on the growth dynamics of a particular class of systems. The Tsallis entropy is non-additive for independent subsystems, i.e. the information on the subsystems is insufficient to describe the system as a whole. In the context of prebiotic evolution, this “non-reductionist” nature of parabolic replicator systems might reflect the importance of group selection and competition between ensembles of cooperating replicators. Reviewers This article was reviewed by Viswanadham Sridhara (nominated by Claus Wilke), Puushottam Dixit (nominated by Sergei Maslov), and Nick Grishin. For the complete reviews, see the Reviewers’ Reports section. PMID:23937956

Ontogeny of energy allocation reveals selective pressure promoting risk-taking behaviour in young fish cohorts

PubMed Central

Biro, Peter A; Post, John R; Abrahams, Mark V

2005-01-01

Given limited food, prey fishes in a temperate climate must take risks to acquire sufficient reserves for winter and/or to outgrow vulnerability to predation. However, how can we distinguish which selective pressure promotes risk-taking when larger body size is always beneficial? To address this question, we examined patterns of energy allocation in populations of age-0 trout to determine if greater risk-taking corresponds with energy allocation to lipids or to somatic growth. Trout achieved maximum growth rates in all lakes and allocated nearly all of their acquired energy to somatic growth when small in early summer. However, trout in low-food lakes took greater risks to achieve this maximal growth, and therefore incurred high mortality. By late summer, age-0 trout allocated considerable energy to lipids and used previously risky habitats in all lakes. These results indicate that: (i) the size-dependent risk of predation (which is independent of behaviour) promotes risk-taking behaviour of age-0 trout to increase growth and minimize time spent in vulnerable sizes; and (ii) the physiology of energy allocation and behaviour interact to mediate growth/mortality trade-offs for young animals at risk of predation and starvation. PMID:16011918

Stimulus-dependent Maximum Entropy Models of Neural Population Codes

PubMed Central

Segev, Ronen; Schneidman, Elad

2013-01-01

Neural populations encode information about their stimulus in a collective fashion, by joint activity patterns of spiking and silence. A full account of this mapping from stimulus to neural activity is given by the conditional probability distribution over neural codewords given the sensory input. For large populations, direct sampling of these distributions is impossible, and so we must rely on constructing appropriate models. We show here that in a population of 100 retinal ganglion cells in the salamander retina responding to temporal white-noise stimuli, dependencies between cells play an important encoding role. We introduce the stimulus-dependent maximum entropy (SDME) model—a minimal extension of the canonical linear-nonlinear model of a single neuron, to a pairwise-coupled neural population. We find that the SDME model gives a more accurate account of single cell responses and in particular significantly outperforms uncoupled models in reproducing the distributions of population codewords emitted in response to a stimulus. We show how the SDME model, in conjunction with static maximum entropy models of population vocabulary, can be used to estimate information-theoretic quantities like average surprise and information transmission in a neural population. PMID:23516339

Estimating population sizes for elusive animals: the forest elephants of Kakum National Park, Ghana.

PubMed

Eggert, L S; Eggert, J A; Woodruff, D S

2003-06-01

African forest elephants are difficult to observe in the dense vegetation, and previous studies have relied upon indirect methods to estimate population sizes. Using multilocus genotyping of noninvasively collected samples, we performed a genetic survey of the forest elephant population at Kakum National Park, Ghana. We estimated population size, sex ratio and genetic variability from our data, then combined this information with field observations to divide the population into age groups. Our population size estimate was very close to that obtained using dung counts, the most commonly used indirect method of estimating the population sizes of forest elephant populations. As their habitat is fragmented by expanding human populations, management will be increasingly important to the persistence of forest elephant populations. The data that can be obtained from noninvasively collected samples will help managers plan for the conservation of this keystone species.

Incentive payments are not related to expected health gain in the pay for performance scheme for UK primary care: cross-sectional analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The General Medical Services primary care contract for the United Kingdom financially rewards performance in 19 clinical areas, through the Quality and Outcomes Framework. Little is known about how best to determine the size of financial incentives in pay for performance schemes. Our aim was to test the hypothesis that performance indicators with larger population health benefits receive larger financial incentives. Methods We performed cross sectional analyses to quantify associations between the size of financial incentives and expected health gain in the 2004 and 2006 versions of the Quality and Outcomes Framework. We used non-parametric two-sided Spearman rank correlation tests. Health gain was measured in expected lives saved in one year and in quality adjusted life years. For each quality indicator in an average sized general practice we tested for associations first, between the marginal increase in payment and the health gain resulting from a one percent point improvement in performance and second, between total payment and the health gain at the performance threshold for maximum payment. Results Evidence for lives saved or quality adjusted life years gained was found for 28 indicators accounting for 41% of the total incentive payments. No statistically significant associations were found between the expected health gain and incentive gained from a marginal 1% increase in performance in either the 2004 or 2006 version of the Quality and Outcomes Framework. In addition no associations were found between the size of financial payment for achievement of an indicator and the expected health gain at the performance threshold for maximum payment measured in lives saved or quality adjusted life years. Conclusions In this subgroup of indicators the financial incentives were not aligned to maximise health gain. This disconnection between incentive and expected health gain risks supporting clinical activities that are only marginally effective, at the expense of more effective activities receiving lower incentives. When designing pay for performance programmes decisions about the size of the financial incentive attached to an indicator should be informed by information on the health gain to be expected from that indicator. PMID:22507660

Energetic and biomechanical constraints on animal migration distance.

PubMed

Hein, Andrew M; Hou, Chen; Gillooly, James F

2012-02-01

Animal migration is one of the great wonders of nature, but the factors that determine how far migrants travel remain poorly understood. We present a new quantitative model of animal migration and use it to describe the maximum migration distance of walking, swimming and flying migrants. The model combines biomechanics and metabolic scaling to show how maximum migration distance is constrained by body size for each mode of travel. The model also indicates that the number of body lengths travelled by walking and swimming migrants should be approximately invariant of body size. Data from over 200 species of migratory birds, mammals, fish, and invertebrates support the central conclusion of the model - that body size drives variation in maximum migration distance among species through its effects on metabolism and the cost of locomotion. The model provides a new tool to enhance general understanding of the ecology and evolution of migration. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Body size, swimming speed, or thermal sensitivity? Predator-imposed selection on amphibian larvae.

PubMed

Gvoždík, Lumír; Smolinský, Radovan

2015-11-02

Many animals rely on their escape performance during predator encounters. Because of its dependence on body size and temperature, escape velocity is fully characterized by three measures, absolute value, size-corrected value, and its response to temperature (thermal sensitivity). The primary target of the selection imposed by predators is poorly understood. We examined predator (dragonfly larva)-imposed selection on prey (newt larvae) body size and characteristics of escape velocity using replicated and controlled predation experiments under seminatural conditions. Specifically, because these species experience a wide range of temperatures throughout their larval phases, we predict that larvae achieving high swimming velocities across temperatures will have a selective advantage over more thermally sensitive individuals. Nonzero selection differentials indicated that predators selected for prey body size and both absolute and size-corrected maximum swimming velocity. Comparison of selection differentials with control confirmed selection only on body size, i.e., dragonfly larvae preferably preyed on small newt larvae. Maximum swimming velocity and its thermal sensitivity showed low group repeatability, which contributed to non-detectable selection on both characteristics of escape performance. In the newt-dragonfly larvae interaction, body size plays a more important role than maximum values and thermal sensitivity of swimming velocity during predator escape. This corroborates the general importance of body size in predator-prey interactions. The absence of an appropriate control in predation experiments may lead to potentially misleading conclusions about the primary target of predator-imposed selection. Insights from predation experiments contribute to our understanding of the link between performance and fitness, and further improve mechanistic models of predator-prey interactions and food web dynamics.

Spatial-temporal characteristics of lightning flash size in a supercell storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhixiao; Zheng, Dong; Zhang, Yijun; Lu, Gaopeng

2017-11-01

The flash sizes of a supercell storm, in New Mexico on October 5, 2004, are studied using the observations from the New Mexico Lightning Mapping Array and the Albuquerque, New Mexico, Doppler radar (KABX). First, during the temporal evolution of the supercell, the mean flash size is anti-correlated with the flash rate, following a unary power function, with a correlation coefficient of - 0.87. In addition, the mean flash size is linearly correlated with the area of reflectivity > 30 dBZ at 5 km normalized by the flash rate, with a correlation coefficient of 0.88. Second, in the horizontal, flash size increases along the direction from the region near the convection zone to the adjacent forward anvil. The region of minimum flash size usually corresponds to the region of maximum flash initiation and extent density. The horizontal correspondence between the mean flash size and the flash extent density can also be fitted by a unary power function, and the correlation coefficient is > 0.5 in 50% of the radar volume scans. Furthermore, the quality of fit is positively correlated to the convective intensity. Third, in the vertical direction, the height of the maximum flash initiation density is close to the height of maximum flash extent density, but corresponds to the height where the mean flash size is relatively small. In the discussion, the distribution of the small and dense charge regions when and where convection is vigorous in the storm, is deduced to be responsible for the relationship that flash size is temporally and spatially anti-correlated with flash rate and density, and the convective intensity.

Maximum type I error rate inflation from sample size reassessment when investigators are blind to treatment labels.

PubMed

Żebrowska, Magdalena; Posch, Martin; Magirr, Dominic

2016-05-30

Consider a parallel group trial for the comparison of an experimental treatment to a control, where the second-stage sample size may depend on the blinded primary endpoint data as well as on additional blinded data from a secondary endpoint. For the setting of normally distributed endpoints, we demonstrate that this may lead to an inflation of the type I error rate if the null hypothesis holds for the primary but not the secondary endpoint. We derive upper bounds for the inflation of the type I error rate, both for trials that employ random allocation and for those that use block randomization. We illustrate the worst-case sample size reassessment rule in a case study. For both randomization strategies, the maximum type I error rate increases with the effect size in the secondary endpoint and the correlation between endpoints. The maximum inflation increases with smaller block sizes if information on the block size is used in the reassessment rule. Based on our findings, we do not question the well-established use of blinded sample size reassessment methods with nuisance parameter estimates computed from the blinded interim data of the primary endpoint. However, we demonstrate that the type I error rate control of these methods relies on the application of specific, binding, pre-planned and fully algorithmic sample size reassessment rules and does not extend to general or unplanned sample size adjustments based on blinded data. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Determination of the optimal sample size for a clinical trial accounting for the population size.

PubMed

Stallard, Nigel; Miller, Frank; Day, Simon; Hee, Siew Wan; Madan, Jason; Zohar, Sarah; Posch, Martin

2017-07-01

The problem of choosing a sample size for a clinical trial is a very common one. In some settings, such as rare diseases or other small populations, the large sample sizes usually associated with the standard frequentist approach may be infeasible, suggesting that the sample size chosen should reflect the size of the population under consideration. Incorporation of the population size is possible in a decision-theoretic approach either explicitly by assuming that the population size is fixed and known, or implicitly through geometric discounting of the gain from future patients reflecting the expected population size. This paper develops such approaches. Building on previous work, an asymptotic expression is derived for the sample size for single and two-arm clinical trials in the general case of a clinical trial with a primary endpoint with a distribution of one parameter exponential family form that optimizes a utility function that quantifies the cost and gain per patient as a continuous function of this parameter. It is shown that as the size of the population, N, or expected size, N∗ in the case of geometric discounting, becomes large, the optimal trial size is O(N1/2) or O(N∗1/2). The sample size obtained from the asymptotic expression is also compared with the exact optimal sample size in examples with responses with Bernoulli and Poisson distributions, showing that the asymptotic approximations can also be reasonable in relatively small sample sizes. © 2016 The Author. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Phenotypic plasticity in clutch size regulation among populations of a potential invasive fruit fly from environments that vary in host heterogeneity and isolation.

PubMed

Aluja, M; Birke, A; Díaz-Fleischer, F; Rull, J

2018-05-21

Phenotypic plasticity is thought to evolve in response to environmental unpredictability and can shield genotypes from selection. However, selection can also act on plastic traits. Egg-laying behaviour, including clutch size regulation, is a plastic behavioural trait among tephritid fruit flies. We compared plasticity in clutch size regulation among females of Anastrepha ludens populations stemming from environments that differed in the degree of predictability in egg-laying opportunities. Clutch size regulation in response to hosts of different sizes was compared among flies from (a) a wild, highly isolated population, (b) a wild population that switches seasonally from a small wild host fruit that varies greatly in abundance to an abundant large-sized commercial host, and (c) a laboratory population. Flies from all three populations adjusted clutch number and size according to host size. However, flies from the heterogeneous wild environment were more plastic in adjusting clutch size than flies from agricultural settings that also laid fewer eggs; yet both populations were more plastic in adjusting clutch size in line with host size when compared with laboratory females. When wild and orchard females encountered the largest host, clutch size was extremely variable and egg regulation did not follow the same trend. Heterogeneity in host availability in space and time appears to be as important as seasonal variation in host size in maintaining plastic clutch size regulation behaviour. In stable environments, there was a clear reduction in the plasticity of these traits.

Natural range expansion and local extirpation of an exotic psittacine--an unsuccessful colonization attempt

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, J.W.

1993-01-01

The Brown-throated Parakeet Aratinga pertinax is native to Panama, northern South America, and the islands off the northern coast of Venezuela. It is widely believed that the parakeet was introduced to St. Thomas, Virgin Islands, from Curacao before the mid-19th century, although no records exist as to when and how this may have occurred. The parakeet was not recorded from Vieques or Culebra islands or mainland Puerto Rico before 1975. However, in that year A. pertinax underwent an apparent natural range expansion from St. Thomas into each of these sites. The 5 birds in the eastern Puerto Rico population made 5 breeding attempts and fledged 11 young since their discovery in April1975. That population grew to a maximum size of 10 birds in June 1979. However there was only 1 bird left by July 1980, and the population no longer existed at the beginning of what would have been the 1982 breeding season. The populations on Culebra and Vieques islands were apparently extirpated by 1976. Losses in the eastern Puerto Rico population were low during the first four years of colonization, when reproduction was adequate and the mortality was low. However, between 1978 and the time of population disappearance in 1982, the expected extirpation was 0.999. Habitat use, general behavior, breeding biology, competitors and predators of the colonizing population in eastern Puerto Rico are described. Biogeographic, evolutionary, and conservation implications of these observations are discussed.

Single Cell Analysis Linking Ribosomal (r)DNA and rRNA Copy Numbers to Cell Size and Growth Rate Provides Insights into Molecular Protistan Ecology.

PubMed

Fu, Rao; Gong, Jun

2017-11-01

Ribosomal (r)RNA and rDNA have been golden molecular markers in microbial ecology. However, it remains poorly understood how ribotype copy number (CN)-based characteristics are linked with diversity, abundance, and activity of protist populations and communities observed at organismal levels. Here, we applied a single-cell approach to quantify ribotype CNs in two ciliate species reared at different temperatures. We found that in actively growing cells, the per-cell rDNA and rRNA CNs scaled with cell volume (CV) to 0.44 and 0.58 powers, respectively. The modeled rDNA and rRNA concentrations thus appear to be much higher in smaller than in larger cells. The observed rRNA:rDNA ratio scaled with CV 0.14 . The maximum growth rate could be well predicted by a combination of per-cell ribotype CN and temperature. Our empirical data and modeling on single-cell ribotype scaling are in agreement with both the metabolic theory of ecology and the growth rate hypothesis, providing a quantitative framework for linking cellular rDNA and rRNA CNs with body size, growth (activity), and biomass stoichiometry. This study also demonstrates that the expression rate of rRNA genes is constrained by cell size, and favors biomass rather than abundance-based interpretation of quantitative ribotype data in population and community ecology of protists. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Eukaryotic Microbiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society of Protistologists.

Isolation of a spontaneous CHO amino acid transport mutant by a combination of tritium suicide and replica plating

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dantzig, A.H.; Slayman, C.W.; Adelberg, E.A.

A spontaneous transport mutant of Chinese hamster ovary cells, CHY-1, was isolated by a combination of (/sup 3/H)proline suicide and replica plating. The mutant took up less tritium than the parent, resulting in a lower killing rate during storage. Transport by four separate amino acid transport systems (A, ASC, L, Ly+) was examined. The CHY-1 mutant exhibited normal uptake via the ASC, L, and Ly+ systems. By contrast, uptake of the most specific substrate of the A system, 2-(methylamino)-isobutyric acid, was significantly reduced at low, but not high, concentrations, due to a 3.5-fold increase in Km and a 1.5-fold increasemore » in Vmax. Taken together, these data suggest that the CHY-1 mutation may be in the structural gene coding for the A transport protein. The tritium suicide procedure is discussed, and general equations are derived to predict the maximum storage time for the survival of one mutant cell and the optimum size of the cell population for maximum mutant enrichment.« less

Anthropometric Accommodation in Space Suit Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajulu, Sudhakar; Thaxton, Sherry

2007-01-01

Design requirements for next generation hardware are in process at NASA. Anthropometry requirements are given in terms of minimum and maximum sizes for critical dimensions that hardware must accommodate. These dimensions drive vehicle design and suit design, and implicitly have an effect on crew selection and participation. At this stage in the process, stakeholders such as cockpit and suit designers were asked to provide lists of dimensions that will be critical for their design. In addition, they were asked to provide technically feasible minimum and maximum ranges for these dimensions. Using an adjusted 1988 Anthropometric Survey of U.S. Army (ANSUR) database to represent a future astronaut population, the accommodation ranges provided by the suit critical dimensions were calculated. This project involved participation from the Anthropometry and Biomechanics facility (ABF) as well as suit designers, with suit designers providing expertise about feasible hardware dimensions and the ABF providing accommodation analysis. The initial analysis provided the suit design team with the accommodation levels associated with the critical dimensions provided early in the study. Additional outcomes will include a comparison of principal components analysis as an alternate method for anthropometric analysis.

Anomaloglossus meansi sp. n., a new Pantepui species of the Anomaloglossus beebei group (Anura, Aromobatidae).

PubMed

Kok, Philippe J R; Nicolaï, Michaël P J; Lathrop, Amy; MacCulloch, Ross D

2018-01-01

Recent extinctions and drastic population declines have been documented in the Guiana Shield endemic frog genus Anomaloglossus , hence the importance to resolve its alpha-taxonomy. Based on molecular phylogenies, the literature has long reported the occurrence of an undescribed species in the Pakaraima Mountains of Guyana in the Pantepui region. We here describe this new taxon and demonstrate that in addition to divergence at the molecular level the new species differs from congeners by a unique combination of morphological characters, notably a small size (maximum SVL in males 18.86 mm, maximum SVL in females 21.26 mm), Finger I = Finger II when fingers adpressed, Finger III swollen in breeding males, fringes on fingers absent, toes basally webbed but lacking fringes, in life presence of a thin dorsolateral stripe from tip of snout to tip of urostyle, and a black throat in preserved males (immaculate cream in females). Virtually nothing is known about the ecology of the new species. We suggest the new species to be considered as Data Deficient according to IUCN standards.

Disk stars in the Milky Way detected beyond 25 kpc from its center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Corredoira, M.; Allende Prieto, C.; Garzón, F.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.; Deng, L.

2018-05-01

Context. The maximum size of the Galactic stellar disk is not yet known. Some studies have suggested an abrupt drop-off of the stellar density of the disk at Galactocentric distances R ≳ 15 kpc, which means that in practice no disk stars or only very few of them should be found beyond this limit. However, stars in the Milky Way plane are detected at larger distances. In addition to the halo component, star counts have placed the end of the disk beyond 20 kpc, although this has not been spectroscopically confirmed so far. Aims: Here, we aim to spectroscopically confirm the presence of the disk stars up to much larger distances. Methods: With data from the LAMOST and SDSS-APOGEE spectroscopic surveys, we statistically derived the maximum distance at which the metallicity distribution of stars in the Galactic plane is distinct from that of the halo populations. Results: Our analysis reveals the presence of disk stars at R > 26 kpc (99.7% C.L.) and even at R > 31 kpc (95.4% C.L.).

Three-dimensional Characterization of Resorption Cavity Size and Location in Human Vertebral Trabecular Bone

PubMed Central

Goff, M.G.; Slyfield, C.R.; Kummari, S.R.; Tkachenko, E.V.; Fischer, S. E.; Yi, Y.H.; Jekir, M.; Keaveny, T.M.; Hernandez, C.J.

2012-01-01

The number and size of resorption cavities in cancellous bone are believed to influence rates of bone loss, local tissue stress and strain and potentially whole bone strength. Traditional two-dimensional approaches to measuring resorption cavities in cancellous bone report the percent of the bone surface covered by cavities or osteoclasts, but cannot measure cavity number or size. Here we use three-dimensional imaging (voxel size 0.7 × 0.7 × 5.0 μm) to characterize resorption cavity location, number and size in human vertebral cancellous bone from nine elderly donors (7 male, 2 female, ages 47–80 years). Cavities were 30.10 ± 8.56 μm in maximum depth, 80.60 ± 22.23 *103 μm2 in surface area and 614.16 ± 311.93 *103 μm3 in volume (mean ± SD). The average number of cavities per unit tissue volume (N.Cv/TV) was 1.25 ± 0.77 mm−3. The ratio of maximum cavity depth to local trabecular thickness was 30.46 ± 7.03 % and maximum cavity depth was greater on thicker trabeculae (p < 0.05, r2 = 0.14). Half of the resorption cavities were located entirely on nodes (the intersection of two or more trabeculae) within the trabecular structure. Cavities that were not entirely on nodes were predominately on plate-like trabeculae oriented in the cranial-caudal (longitudinal) direction. Cavities on plate-like trabeculae were larger in maximum cavity depth, cavity surface area and cavity volume than cavities on rod-like trabeculae (p < 0.05). We conclude from these findings that cavity size and location are related to local trabecular microarchitecture. PMID:22507299

Homoplasy and mutation model at microsatellite loci and their consequences for population genetics analysis.

PubMed

Estoup, Arnaud; Jarne, Philippe; Cornuet, Jean-Marie

2002-09-01

Homoplasy has recently attracted the attention of population geneticists, as a consequence of the popularity of highly variable stepwise mutating markers such as microsatellites. Microsatellite alleles generally refer to DNA fragments of different size (electromorphs). Electromorphs are identical in state (i.e. have identical size), but are not necessarily identical by descent due to convergent mutation(s). Homoplasy occurring at microsatellites is thus referred to as size homoplasy. Using new analytical developments and computer simulations, we first evaluate the effect of the mutation rate, the mutation model, the effective population size and the time of divergence between populations on size homoplasy at the within and between population levels. We then review the few experimental studies that used various molecular techniques to detect size homoplasious events at some microsatellite loci. The relationship between this molecularly accessible size homoplasy size and the actual amount of size homoplasy is not trivial, the former being considerably influenced by the molecular structure of microsatellite core sequences. In a third section, we show that homoplasy at microsatellite electromorphs does not represent a significant problem for many types of population genetics analyses realized by molecular ecologists, the large amount of variability at microsatellite loci often compensating for their homoplasious evolution. The situations where size homoplasy may be more problematic involve high mutation rates and large population sizes together with strong allele size constraints.

Initial drop size and velocity distributions for airblast coaxial atomizers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eroglu, H.; Chigier, N.

1991-01-01

Phase Doppler measurements were used to determine initial drop size and velocity distributions after a complete disintegration of coaxial liquid jets. The Sauter mean diameter (SMD) distribution was found to be strongly affected by the structure and behavior of the preceding liquid intact jet. The axial measurement stations were determined from the photographs of the coaxial liquid jet at very short distances (1-2 mm) downstream of the observed break-up locations. Minimum droplet mean velocities were found at the center, and maximum velocities were near the spray boundary. Size-velocity correlations show that the velocity of larger drops did not change with drop size. Drop rms velocity distributions have double peaks whose radial positions coincide with the maximum mean velocity gradients.

No support for Heincke's law in hagfish (Myxinidae): lack of an association between body size and the depth of species occurrence.

PubMed

Schumacher, E L; Owens, B D; Uyeno, T A; Clark, A J; Reece, J S

2017-08-01

This study tests for interspecific evidence of Heincke's law among hagfishes and advances the field of research on body size and depth of occurrence in fishes by including a phylogenetic correction and by examining depth in four ways: maximum depth, minimum depth, mean depth of recorded specimens and the average of maximum and minimum depths of occurrence. Results yield no evidence for Heincke's law in hagfishes, no phylogenetic signal for the depth at which species occur, but moderate to weak phylogenetic signal for body size, suggesting that phylogeny may play a role in determining body size in this group. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Growth rates and variances of unexploited wolf populations in dynamic equilibria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

2015-01-01

Several states have begun harvesting gray wolves (Canis lupus), and these states and various European countries are closely monitoring their wolf populations. To provide appropriate perspective for determining unusual or extreme fluctuations in their managed wolf populations, we analyzed natural, long-term, wolf-population-density trajectories totaling 130 years of data from 3 areas: Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA; the east-central Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota, USA; and Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. Ratios between minimum and maximum annual sizes for 2 mainland populations (n = 28 and 46 yr) varied from 2.5–2.8, whereas for Isle Royale (n = 56 yr), the ratio was 6.3. The interquartile range (25th percentile, 75th percentile) for annual growth rates, Nt+1/Nt, was (0.88, 1.14), (0.92, 1.11), and (0.86, 1.12) for Denali, Superior National Forest, and Isle Royale respectively. We fit a density-independent model and a Ricker model to each time series, and in both cases we considered the potential for observation error. Mean growth rates from the density-independent model were close to 0 for all 3 populations, with 95% credible intervals including 0. We view the estimated model parameters, including those describing annual variability or process variance, as providing useful summaries of the trajectories of these populations. The estimates of these natural wolf population parameters can serve as benchmarks for comparison with those of recovering wolf populations. Because our study populations were all from circumscribed areas, fluctuations in them represent fluctuations in densities (i.e., changes in numbers are not confounded by changes in occupied area as would be the case with populations expanding their range, as are wolf populations in many states).

Effects of exposure to ultraviolet light on the development of Rana pipiens, the northern leopard frog

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, J.J.; Wofford, H.W.

1996-10-01

The increase in ultraviolet light intensity levels due to ozone depletion recently has been linked to the decline in amphibian population. In this experiment, eggs and larvae of Rana pipiens were subjected to differing amounts of ultraviolet radiation to determine the effects of ultraviolet light on the development of amphibian tadpoles. The total length, length of body without tail, and maximum width of each specimen was recorded for a month of the tadpoles` development, including several measurements after the ultraviolet exposures were concluded. It was found that ultraviolet exposure significantly reduced the size of the organisms in comparison with themore » control group in all three measured areas. Ultraviolet radiation altered the health and appearance of the exposed organisms and was lethal at large amounts. This experiment showed that ultraviolet radiation could cause many problems in developing amphibians. By slowing their development and physically weakening predation, thus contributing to a decline in overall population levels.« less

Research on Grid Size Suitability of Gridded Population Distribution in Urban Area: A Case Study in Urban Area of Xuanzhou District, China.

PubMed

Dong, Nan; Yang, Xiaohuan; Cai, Hongyan; Xu, Fengjiao

2017-01-01

The research on the grid size suitability is important to provide improvement in accuracies of gridded population distribution. It contributes to reveal the actual spatial distribution of population. However, currently little research has been done in this area. Many well-modeled gridded population dataset are basically built at a single grid scale. If the grid cell size is not appropriate, it will result in spatial information loss or data redundancy. Therefore, in order to capture the desired spatial variation of population within the area of interest, it is necessary to conduct research on grid size suitability. This study summarized three expressed levels to analyze grid size suitability, which include location expressed level, numeric information expressed level, and spatial relationship expressed level. This study elaborated the reasons for choosing the five indexes to explore expression suitability. These five indexes are consistency measure, shape index rate, standard deviation of population density, patches diversity index, and the average local variance. The suitable grid size was determined by constructing grid size-indicator value curves and suitable grid size scheme. Results revealed that the three expressed levels on 10m grid scale are satisfying. And the population distribution raster data with 10m grid size provide excellent accuracy without loss. The 10m grid size is recommended as the appropriate scale for generating a high-quality gridded population distribution in our study area. Based on this preliminary study, it indicates the five indexes are coordinated with each other and reasonable and effective to assess grid size suitability. We also suggest choosing these five indexes in three perspectives of expressed level to carry out the research on grid size suitability of gridded population distribution.

Research on Grid Size Suitability of Gridded Population Distribution in Urban Area: A Case Study in Urban Area of Xuanzhou District, China

PubMed Central

Dong, Nan; Yang, Xiaohuan; Cai, Hongyan; Xu, Fengjiao

2017-01-01

The research on the grid size suitability is important to provide improvement in accuracies of gridded population distribution. It contributes to reveal the actual spatial distribution of population. However, currently little research has been done in this area. Many well-modeled gridded population dataset are basically built at a single grid scale. If the grid cell size is not appropriate, it will result in spatial information loss or data redundancy. Therefore, in order to capture the desired spatial variation of population within the area of interest, it is necessary to conduct research on grid size suitability. This study summarized three expressed levels to analyze grid size suitability, which include location expressed level, numeric information expressed level, and spatial relationship expressed level. This study elaborated the reasons for choosing the five indexes to explore expression suitability. These five indexes are consistency measure, shape index rate, standard deviation of population density, patches diversity index, and the average local variance. The suitable grid size was determined by constructing grid size-indicator value curves and suitable grid size scheme. Results revealed that the three expressed levels on 10m grid scale are satisfying. And the population distribution raster data with 10m grid size provide excellent accuracy without loss. The 10m grid size is recommended as the appropriate scale for generating a high-quality gridded population distribution in our study area. Based on this preliminary study, it indicates the five indexes are coordinated with each other and reasonable and effective to assess grid size suitability. We also suggest choosing these five indexes in three perspectives of expressed level to carry out the research on grid size suitability of gridded population distribution. PMID:28122050

Investigation of maximum local specific absorption rate in 7 T magnetic resonance with respect to load size by use of electromagnetic simulations.

PubMed

Tiberi, Gianluigi; Fontana, Nunzia; Costagli, Mauro; Stara, Riccardo; Biagi, Laura; Symms, Mark Roger; Monorchio, Agostino; Retico, Alessandra; Cosottini, Mirco; Tosetti, Michela

2015-07-01

Local specific absorption rate (SAR) evaluation in ultra high field (UHF) magnetic resonance (MR) systems is a major concern. In fact, at UHF, radiofrequency (RF) field inhomogeneity generates hot-spots that could cause localized tissue heating. Unfortunately, local SAR measurements are not available in present MR systems; thus, electromagnetic simulations must be performed for RF fields and SAR analysis. In this study, we used three-dimensional full-wave numerical electromagnetic simulations to investigate the dependence of local SAR at 7.0 T with respect to subject size in two different scenarios: surface coil loaded by adult and child calves and quadrature volume coil loaded by adult and child heads. In the surface coil scenario, maximum local SAR decreased with decreasing load size, provided that the RF magnetic fields for the different load sizes were scaled to achieve the same slice average value. On the contrary, in the volume coil scenario, maximum local SAR was up to 15% higher in children than in adults. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Probing RFP Density Limits and the Interaction of Pellet Fueling and NBI Heating on MST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caspary, K. J.; Chapman, B. E.; Anderson, J. K.; Limbach, S. T.; Oliva, S. P.; Sarff, J. S.; Waksman, J.; Combs, S. K.; Foust, C. R.

2013-10-01

Pellet fueling on MST has previously achieved Greenwald fractions of up to 1.5 in 200 kA improved confinement discharges. Additionally, pellet fueling to densities above the Greenwald limit in 200 kA standard discharges resulted in early termination of the plasma, but pellet size was insufficient to exceed the limit for higher current discharges. To this end, the pellet injector on MST has been upgraded to increase the maximum fueling capability by increasing the size of the pellet guide tubes, which constrain the lateral motion of the pellet in flight, to accommodate pellets of up to 4.0 mm in diameter. These 4.0 mm pellets are capable of triggering density limit terminations for MST's peak current of 600 kA. An unexpected improvement in the pellet speed and mass control was also observed compared to the smaller diameter pellets. Exploring the effect of increased density on NBI particle and heat deposition shows that for MST's 1 MW tangential NBI, core deposition of 25 keV neutrals is optimized for densities of 2-3 × 1019 m-3. This is key for beta limit studies in pellet fueled discharges with improved confinement where maximum NBI heating is desired. An observed toroidal deflection of pellets injected into NBI heated discharges is consistent with asymmetric ablation due to the fast ion population. In 200 kA improved confinement plasmas with NBI heating, pellet fueling has achieved a Greenwald fraction of 2.0. Work supported by US DoE.

Population growth enhances the mean fixation time of neutral mutations and the persistence of neutral variation.

PubMed

Waxman, D

2012-06-01

A fundamental result of population genetics states that a new mutation, at an unlinked neutral locus in a randomly mating diploid population, has a mean time of fixation of ∼4N(e) generations, where N(e) is the effective population size. This result is based on an assumption of fixed population size, which does not universally hold in natural populations. Here, we analyze such neutral fixations in populations of changing size within the framework of the diffusion approximation. General expressions are derived for the mean and variance of the fixation time in changing populations. Some explicit results are given for two cases: (i) the effective population size undergoes a sudden change, representing a sudden population expansion or a sudden bottleneck; (ii) the effective population changes linearly for a limited period of time and then remains constant. Additionally, a lower bound for the mean time of fixation is obtained for an effective population size that increases with time, and this is applied to exponentially growing populations. The results obtained in this work show, among other things, that for populations that increase in size, the mean time of fixation can be enhanced, sometimes substantially so, over 4N(e,0) generations, where N(e,0) is the effective population size at the time the mutation arises. Such an enhancement is associated with (i) an increased probability of neutral polymorphism in a population and (ii) an enhanced persistence of high-frequency neutral variation, which is the variation most likely to be observed.

Estimating the Size and Timing of Maximum Amplitude for Cycle 23 from Its Early Cycle Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

1998-01-01

On the basis of the lowest observed smoothed monthly mean sunspot number, cycle 23 appears to have conventionally begun in May 1996, in conjunction with the first appearance of a new cycle, high-latitude spot-group. Such behavior, however, is considered rather unusual, since, previously (based upon the data- available cycles 12-22), the first appearance of a new cycle, high-latitude spot- group has always preceded conventional onset by at least 3 months. Furthermore, accepting May 1996 as the official start for cycle 23 poses a dilemma regarding its projected size and timing of maximum amplitude. Specifically, from the max-min and amplitude-period relationships we infer that cycle 23 should be above average in size and a fast riser, with maximum amplitude occurring before May 2000 (being in agreement with projections for cycle 23 based on precursor information), yet from its initial languid rate of rise (during the first 6 months of the cycle) we infer that it should be below average in size and a slow riser, with maximum amplitude occurring after May 2000. The dilemma vanishes, however, when we use a slightly later-occurring onset. For example, using August 1996, a date associated with a local secondary minimum prior to the rapid rise that began shortly thereafter (in early 1997), we infer that cycle 23's rate of rise is above that for the mean of cycles 1-22, the mean of cycles 10-22 (the modern era cycles), the mean of the modern era'fast risers,' and the largest of the modern era 'slow risers' (i.e., cycle 20), thereby, suggesting that cycle 23 will be both fast-rising and above average in size, peaking before August 2000. Additionally, presuming cycle 23 to be a well- behaved fast-rising cycle (regardless of whichever onset date is used), we also infer that its maximum amplitude likely will measure about 144.0 q+/- 28.8 (from the general behavior found for the bulk of modern era fast risers; i.e., 5 of 7 have had their maximum amplitude to lie within 20% of the mean curve for modern era fast risers). It is apparent, then, that sunspot number growth during 1998 will prove crucial for correctly establishing the size and shape of cycle 23.

Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2001-01-01

One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

Parametric modelling of cost data in medical studies.

PubMed

Nixon, R M; Thompson, S G

2004-04-30

The cost of medical resources used is often recorded for each patient in clinical studies in order to inform decision-making. Although cost data are generally skewed to the right, interest is in making inferences about the population mean cost. Common methods for non-normal data, such as data transformation, assuming asymptotic normality of the sample mean or non-parametric bootstrapping, are not ideal. This paper describes possible parametric models for analysing cost data. Four example data sets are considered, which have different sample sizes and degrees of skewness. Normal, gamma, log-normal, and log-logistic distributions are fitted, together with three-parameter versions of the latter three distributions. Maximum likelihood estimates of the population mean are found; confidence intervals are derived by a parametric BC(a) bootstrap and checked by MCMC methods. Differences between model fits and inferences are explored.Skewed parametric distributions fit cost data better than the normal distribution, and should in principle be preferred for estimating the population mean cost. However for some data sets, we find that models that fit badly can give similar inferences to those that fit well. Conversely, particularly when sample sizes are not large, different parametric models that fit the data equally well can lead to substantially different inferences. We conclude that inferences are sensitive to choice of statistical model, which itself can remain uncertain unless there is enough data to model the tail of the distribution accurately. Investigating the sensitivity of conclusions to choice of model should thus be an essential component of analysing cost data in practice. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size

PubMed Central

Ragsdale, Alexandria K.; McCoy, Earl D.; Mushinsky, Henry R.

2016-01-01

Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. PMID:26976940

Surviving historical Patagonian landscapes and climate: molecular insights from Galaxias maculatus

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The dynamic geological and climatic histories of temperate South America have played important roles in shaping the contemporary distributions and genetic diversity of endemic freshwater species. We use mitochondria and nuclear sequence variation to investigate the consequences of mountain barriers and Quaternary glacial cycles for patterns of genetic diversity in the diadromous fish Galaxias maculatus in Patagonia (~300 individuals from 36 locations). Results Contemporary populations of G. maculatus, east and west of the Andes in Patagonia, represent a single monophyletic lineage comprising several well supported groups. Mantel tests using control region data revealed a strong positive relationship when geographic distance was modeled according to a scenario of marine dispersal. (r = 0.69, P = 0.055). By contrast, direct distance between regions was poorly correlated with genetic distance (r = -0.05, P = 0.463). Hierarchical AMOVAs using mtDNA revealed that pooling samples according to historical (pre-LGM) oceanic drainage (Pacific vs. Atlantic) explained approximately four times more variance than pooling them into present-day drainage (15.6% vs. 3.7%). Further post-hoc AMOVA tests revealed additional genetic structure between populations east and west of the Chilean Coastal Cordillera (coastal vs. interior). Overall female effective population size appears to have remained relatively constant until roughly 0.5 Ma when population size rapidly increased several orders of magnitude [100× (60×-190×)] to reach contemporary levels. Maximum likelihood analysis of nuclear alleles revealed a poorly supported gene tree which was paraphyletic with respect to mitochondrial-defined haplogroups. Conclusions First diversifying in the central/north-west region of Patagonia, G. maculatus extended its range into Argentina via the southern coastal regions that join the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. More recent gene flow between northern populations involved the most ancient and most derived lineages, and was likely facilitated by drainage reversal(s) during one or more cooling events of the late Pleistocene. Overall female effective population size represents the end result of a widespread and several hundred-fold increase over approximately 0.5 Ma, spanning several climatic fluctuations of the Pleistocene. The minor influence of glacial cycles on the genetic structure and diversity of G. maculatus likely reflects the access to marine refugia during repeated bouts of global cooling. Evidence of genetic structure that was detected on a finer scale between lakes/rivers is most likely the result of both biological attributes (i.e., resident non-migratory behavior and/or landlocking and natal homing in diadromous populations), and the Coastal Cordillera as a dispersal barrier. PMID:20211014

Absence of geographical structure of chloroplast DNA variation in sallow, Salix caprea L.

PubMed

Palmé, A E; Semerikov, V; Lascoux, M

2003-11-01

In the present study, we have used PCR-RFLP markers to investigate the chloroplast DNA variation in 24 European populations of Salix caprea L. A subset of these populations has also been analysed with chloroplast microsatellites. The main feature of both markers is the absence of a clear geographic structure (G(ST(PCR-RFLP))=0.090, G(ST(microsatellites))=-0.017) and high levels of variation within populations. This lack of phylogeographic structure in S. caprea is suggested to be the consequence of the joint action of several factors: (i) presence of intermediate latitude refugia with large population sizes during the last glacial maximum, (ii) a high speed of recolonisation and dispersal ability, (iii) a high mutation rate and (iv) extensive hybridisation with other willow species. In addition to the S. caprea samples, a limited number of individuals from several other Salix species were also analysed with PCR-RFLP: S. cinerea, S. aurita, S. purpurea, S. atrocinerea, S. appendiculata, S. elaeagnos, S. fragilis and S. alba. Many of the haplotypes found in Salix caprea were also detected in S. cinerea, S. aurita, S. purpurea, S. atrocinerea and/ or S. appendiculata but not in S. alba, S. elaeagnos or S. fragilis. Our data suggest that hybridisation and gene flow have occurred within these two groups but not between them.

Influence of space use on fitness and the reintroduction success of the Laysan teal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, M.H.; Hatfield, J.S.; Laniawe, L.P.; Vekasy, M.S.; Klavitter, J.L.; Berkowitz, P.; Crampton, L.H.; Walters, J.R.

2012-01-01

Translocation is an important tool for wildlife conservation and biodiversity restoration, but an inefficient one because of the unpredictability of success. Predictors of success such as habitat quality of the release site and number of individuals released have been identified, but the dynamics of successful translocations remain poorly understood. In particular, little is known about the relationship of individual post-release movements to population establishment. In 2004, Laysan teal Anas laysanensis were reintroduced by translocating 20 wild birds from Laysan Island to Midway Atoll. Twenty-two additional wild founders were brought the next year. We monitored the survival, reproductive success and movements of the 42 translocated individuals and their offspring for 4 years. Additionally, we monitored population size from 2004 to 2010. Unlike most translocations, we did not observe elevated post-release mortality despite flight-feather trimming to prevent immediate dispersal off-island: first year survival was > 90% and survival rates until 2009 were 0.65±0.08 for founding adults. Laysan teal flew between the two main islands of Midway Atoll, and offspring had significantly larger maximum movement distances than founders. We monitored 84 nests and observed a significant, negative relationship of home range size to productivity for founding females. Flightless founders did not show fidelity to their release sites, but had strong fidelity to annual home ranges after attaining flight. Although we observed a component Allee effect on mate-finding, this did not translate into a demographic Allee effect, and generally, the high fitness of founders contributed substantially to successful population establishment. Laysan teal abundance increased linearly until 2009, but showed evidence of population regulation afterwards. The population estimate was 473 (95% confidence interval 439–508) in 2010. On the much larger main Hawaiian Islands, we expect greater post-release movement, a stronger component Allee effect, lower survival and lower reproductive rates because of predation to preclude successful reintroductions of this species to sites without predator management.

Recent advances in life history of Gulf of Mexico sturgeon, Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi, in the Suwannee River, Florida, USA: A synopsis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sulak, K.J.; Clugston, James P.

1999-01-01

Gulf sturgeon spawn on portions of three sites in the upper Suwannee River, which may appropriately be described as spawning reefs. The same areas are utilized from year to year. Habitat factors important in spawning site determination include gravel/cobble substrate, the presence of eddy fields, a neutral to slightly alkaline pH, and an empirically observed range in calcium ion content (6-18 mg/L Ca++, corresponding to a conductivity range of 40-110??S). Eggs are deposited contagiously within a small area ( 3 m) when water temperatures drop in mid-December, but final destinations in mid-winter remain unknown. Age-2 through 6 juveniles remain in the river mouth estuary over winter. In late January through early February YOY migrate downriver for the first time, joining larger juveniles to overwinter and feed. Tag and recapture data yield a Suwannee River population of Gulf sturgeon estimated at 7,650 individuals, with an annual turnover rate of 16%. Based on stability in cumulative recapture rates from 1991-1998, population size is stable with an effective balance between recruitment and mortality. However, population structure is dynamic, controlled by the juxtaposition, conjunction, and summation of successive strong and weak year classes. Length/age frequency distributions for 1995 and 1998 populations censuses are very different. The 1995 distribution is bimodal with a dominant mode of 9-14 year old subadults/adults, and a sub-dominant of mode of 2-4 year old juveniles. The 1998 distribution is trimodal, but overwhelmingly dominated by 6-9 year old subadults. Erosion by 1998 of the major subadult/adult mode from the 1995 census illustrates that large adults encounter the same high mortality as smaller fish. Ultimate adult size in the population has remained constant at 2.2 cm TL over 13 years, indicating a maximum life expectancy of 25 years for Suwannee River Gulf sturgeon.

Constraining the phantom braneworld model from cosmic structure sizes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Sourav; Kousvos, Stefanos R.

2017-11-01

We consider the phantom braneworld model in the context of the maximum turnaround radius, RTA ,max, of a stable, spherical cosmic structure with a given mass. The maximum turnaround radius is the point where the attraction due to the central inhomogeneity gets balanced with the repulsion of the ambient dark energy, beyond which a structure cannot hold any mass, thereby giving the maximum upper bound on the size of a stable structure. In this work we derive an analytical expression of RTA ,max for this model using cosmological scalar perturbation theory. Using this we numerically constrain the parameter space, including a bulk cosmological constant and the Weyl fluid, from the mass versus observed size data for some nearby, nonvirial cosmic structures. We use different values of the matter density parameter Ωm, both larger and smaller than that of the Λ cold dark matter, as the input in our analysis. We show in particular, that (a) with a vanishing bulk cosmological constant the predicted upper bound is always greater than what is actually observed; a similar conclusion holds if the bulk cosmological constant is negative (b) if it is positive, the predicted maximum size can go considerably below than what is actually observed and owing to the involved nature of the field equations, it leads to interesting constraints on not only the bulk cosmological constant itself but on the whole parameter space of the theory.

Debris Flux Comparisons From The Goldstone Radar, Haystack Radar, and Hax Radar Prior, During, and After the Last Solar Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stokely, C. L.; Stansbery, E. G.; Goldstein, R. M.

2006-01-01

The continual monitoring of low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment using highly sensitive radars is essential for an accurate characterization of these dynamic populations. Debris populations are continually evolving since there are new debris sources, previously unrecognized debris sources, and debris loss mechanisms that are dependent on the dynamic space environment. Such radar data are used to supplement, update, and validate existing orbital debris models. NASA has been utilizing radar observations of the debris environment for over a decade from three complementary radars: the NASA JPL Goldstone radar, the MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) Long Range Imaging Radar (known as the Haystack radar), and the MIT/LL Haystack Auxiliary radar (HAX). All of these systems are highly sensitive radars that operate in a fixed staring mode to statistically sample orbital debris in the LEO environment. Each of these radars is ideally suited to measure debris within a specific size region. The Goldstone radar generally observes objects with sizes from 2 mm to 1 cm. The Haystack radar generally measures from 5 mm to several meters. The HAX radar generally measures from 2 cm to several meters. These overlapping size regions allow a continuous measurement of cumulative debris flux versus diameter from 2 mm to several meters for a given altitude window. This is demonstrated for all three radars by comparing the debris flux versus diameter over 200 km altitude windows for 3 nonconsecutive years from 1998 through 2003. These years correspond to periods before, during, and after the peak of the last solar cycle. Comparing the year to year flux from Haystack for each of these altitude regions indicate statistically significant changes in subsets of the debris populations. Potential causes of these changes are discussed. These analysis results include error bars that represent statistical sampling errors, and are detailed in this paper.

Genetic Diversity Strategy for the Management and Use of Rubber Genetic Resources: More than 1,000 Wild and Cultivated Accessions in a 100-Genotype Core Collection

PubMed Central

Cerqueira-Silva, Carlos Bernardo Moreno; Silva, Carla Cristina; Mantello, Camila Campos; Conson, Andre Ricardo Oliveira; Vianna, João Paulo Gomes; Zucchi, Maria Imaculada; Scaloppi Junior, Erivaldo José; Fialho, Josefino de Freitas; de Moraes, Mario Luis Teixeira; Gonçalves, Paulo de Souza; de Souza, Anete Pereira

2015-01-01

The rubber tree [Hevea brasiliensis (Willd. ex Adr. de Juss.) Muell. Arg.] is the only plant species worldwide that is cultivated for the commercial production of natural rubber. This study describes the genetic diversity of the Hevea spp. complex that is available in the main ex situ collections of South America, including Amazonian populations that have never been previously described. Genetic data were analyzed to determine the genetic structure of the wild populations, quantify the allelic diversity and suggest the composition of a core collection to capture the maximum genetic diversity within a minimal sample size. A total of 1,117 accessions were genotyped with 13 microsatellite markers. We identified a total of 408 alleles, 319 of which were shared between groups and 89 that were private in different groups of accessions. In a population structure and principal component analysis, the level of clustering reflected a primary division into the following two subgroups: cluster 1, which consisted of varieties from the advanced breeding germplasm that originated from the Wickham and Mato Grosso accessions; and cluster 2, which consisted of the wild germplasm from the Acre, Amazonas, Pará and Rondônia populations and Hevea spp. The analyses revealed a high frequency of gene flow between the groups, with the genetic differentiation coefficient (GST) estimated to be 0.018. Additionally, no distinct separation among the H. brasiliensis accessions and the other species from Amazonas was observed. A core collection of 99 accessions was identified that captured the maximum genetic diversity. Rubber tree breeders can effectively utilize this core collection for cultivar improvement. Furthermore, such a core collection could provide resources for forming an association panel to evaluate traits with agronomic and commercial importance. Our study generated a molecular database that should facilitate the management of the Hevea germplasm and its use for subsequent genetic and genomic breeding. PMID:26225861

Structure of the population and secondary production of Hediste diversicolor (O.F. Müller, 1776), (Polychaeta, Nereidae) in the Loire estuary, Atlantic Coast, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillet, P.; Torresani, S.

2003-03-01

A survey was carried out from April 1998 to June 2000 to study the structure of the population and the secondary production of Hediste diversicolor (Copenhagen 32 (1776) 274) in the Loire estuary, Atlantic coast of France. Each month, samples were collected in the intertidal zone of the Mindin harbour. In 1999, the mean annual density was 900±594 individuals (ind.) m -2 with a minimum of 304 ind. m -2 in February and a maximum of 2560 ind. m -2 in April. The mean annual biomass (dry weight) was B¯=9.1 g m -2 with a minimum of 1.2 g m -2 in January and a maximum of 26.0 g m -2 in July 1999. The density and the biomass of the population of H. diversicolor decreased during winter and increased during spring/summer. Size frequency histograms allowed the analysis of cohorts and gave the growth curves. Two recruitment periods were detected each year, in June/July and October. The secondary production was estimated by the method of Crisp (Methods for the study of marine benthos, Blackwell, Oxford, 1971). From June 1998 to May 1999, P=5.1 g m-2 with B¯=4.6 g m-2 and the ratio P/ B¯=1.1 and from June 1999 to May 2000, P=34.4 g m-2 with B¯=9.6 g m-2 and P/ B¯=3.6 . The annual secondary production in 1999 was P=32.5 g m-2 with B¯=9.1 g m-2 and P/ B¯=3.6 . The differences observed between the 1986-1988 and 1998-2000 populations of H. diversicolor in the Loire estuary are discussed and could be explained by environmental changes, as competition or by migration of individuals.

Revising the archaeological record of the Upper Pleistocene Arctic Siberia: Human dispersal and adaptations in MIS 3 and 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitulko, Vladimir; Pavlova, Elena; Nikolskiy, Pavel

2017-06-01

As the main external driver, environmental changes largely predetermine human population distribution, especially in the Arctic, where environmental conditions were often too extreme for human survival. Not that long ago the only evidence of human presence here was the Berelekh site in the lower reaches of the Indighirka River. This landmark dates to 13,000-12,000 years ago but it was widely accepted as documentation of the earliest stage of human dispersal in the Arctic. New research discussed here, shows that humans began colonizing the Siberian Arctic at least by the end of the early stage of MIS 3 at around 45,000 years ago. For now, this earliest known stage of human occupation in the arctic regions is documented by the evidence of human hunting. The archaeological record of continued human occupation is fragmentary; nevertheless, evidence exists for each significant phase including the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Siberian Arctic human populations were likely supported by the local mammoth population, which provided humans with food and raw material in the form of mammoth tusks. Processing of mammoth ivory is recognized widely as one of the most important peculiarities of the material culture of ancient humans. In fact, ivory tool manufacturing is one of the most important innovations of the Upper Palaeolithic in northern Eurasia. Technology that allowed manufacturing of long ivory shafts - long points and full-size spears - was critical in the tree-less open landscapes of Eurasian mammoth steppe belt. These technological skills reach their greatest extent and development shortly before the Last Glacial Maximum but are recognizable until the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary across Northern Eurasia in all areas populated by mammoths and humans. Loss of this stable source of raw material due to the late Pleistocene mammoth extinction may have provoked a shift in post-LGM Siberia to the Beringian microblade tradition. This paper reviews the most important archaeological findings made in arctic Siberia over the last twenty years.

How to plan reintroductions of long-lived birds

PubMed Central

Ferrer, Miguel

2017-01-01

Reintroductions have been increasingly used for species restoration and it seems that this conservation tool is going to be more used in the future. Nevertheless, there is not a clear consensus about the better procedure for that, consequently a better knowledge of how to optimize this kind of management is needed. Here we examined the dynamics of released long-lived bird populations (lesser kestrel, Falco naumanni, Bonelli's eagle Aquila fasciata, and bearded vulture Gypaetus barbatus) in object-oriented simulated reintroduction programs. To do that, number of young per year and number of years of released necessary to achieve a successful reintroduced population were calculated. We define a successful reintroduction as one in which when the probability of extinction during two times the maximum live-span period for the species (20, 50, and 64 years respectively) was less than 0.001 (P<0.001) and they showed a positive trend in population size (r>0.00). Results showed that a similar total number of young (mean 98.33±5.26) must be released in all the species in all the scenarios in order to get a successful reintroduction. Consequently, as more young per year are released the new population is going to be larger at the end of the simulations, the lesser the negative effects in the donor population and the lowest the total budget needed will be. PMID:28445473

Multilocus patterns of nucleotide polymorphism and demographic change in Taxodium distichum (Cupressaceae) in the lower Mississippi River alluvial valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kusumi, J.; Zidong, L.; Kado, T.; Tsumura, Y.; Middleton, B.A.; Tachida, H.

2010-01-01

Premise of the Study: Studies of the geographic patterns of genetic variation can give important insights into the past population structure of species. Our study species, Taxodium distichum L. (bald-cypress), prefers riparian and wetland habitats and is widely distributed in southeastern North America and Mexico. We compared the genetic variation of T. distichum with that of its close relative, Cryptomeria japonica, which is endemic to Japan. Methods: Nucleotide polymorphisms of T. distichum in the lower Mississippi River alluvial valley, USA, were examined at 10 nuclear loci. Key Results: The average nucleotide diversity at silent sites, 7sil, across the 10 loci in T. distichum was higher than that of C. japonica (7sil = 0.00732 and 0.00322, respectively). In T. distichum, Tajima's D values were each negative at 9 out of 10 loci, which suggests a recent population expansion. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian estimations of the exponential population growth rate (g) of T. distichum populations indicated that this species had expanded approximately at the rate of 1.7 - 1.0 10 -6 per year in the past. Conclusions: Taxodium distichum had signifi cantly higher nucleotide variation than C. japonica, and its patterns of polymorphism contrasted strikingly with those of the latter, which previously has been inferred to have experienced a reduction in population size.

mtDNA variation predicts population size in humans and reveals a major Southern Asian chapter in human prehistory.

PubMed

Atkinson, Quentin D; Gray, Russell D; Drummond, Alexei J

2008-02-01

The relative timing and size of regional human population growth following our expansion from Africa remain unknown. Human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) diversity carries a legacy of our population history. Given a set of sequences, we can use coalescent theory to estimate past population size through time and draw inferences about human population history. However, recent work has challenged the validity of using mtDNA diversity to infer species population sizes. Here we use Bayesian coalescent inference methods, together with a global data set of 357 human mtDNA coding-region sequences, to infer human population sizes through time across 8 major geographic regions. Our estimates of relative population sizes show remarkable concordance with the contemporary regional distribution of humans across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas, indicating that mtDNA diversity is a good predictor of population size in humans. Plots of population size through time show slow growth in sub-Saharan Africa beginning 143-193 kya, followed by a rapid expansion into Eurasia after the emergence of the first non-African mtDNA lineages 50-70 kya. Outside Africa, the earliest and fastest growth is inferred in Southern Asia approximately 52 kya, followed by a succession of growth phases in Northern and Central Asia (approximately 49 kya), Australia (approximately 48 kya), Europe (approximately 42 kya), the Middle East and North Africa (approximately 40 kya), New Guinea (approximately 39 kya), the Americas (approximately 18 kya), and a second expansion in Europe (approximately 10-15 kya). Comparisons of relative regional population sizes through time suggest that between approximately 45 and 20 kya most of humanity lived in Southern Asia. These findings not only support the use of mtDNA data for estimating human population size but also provide a unique picture of human prehistory and demonstrate the importance of Southern Asia to our recent evolutionary past.

Influence of Population Density on Offspring Number and Size in Burying Beetles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rauter, Claudia M.

2010-01-01

This laboratory exercise investigates the influence of population density on offspring number and size in burying beetles. Students test the theoretical predictions that brood size declines and offspring size increases when competition over resources becomes stronger with increasing population density. Students design the experiment, collect and…

Global-scale relationships between colonization ability and range size in marine and freshwater fish.

PubMed

Strona, Giovanni; Galli, Paolo; Montano, Simone; Seveso, Davide; Fattorini, Simone

2012-01-01

Although fish range sizes are expected to be associated with species dispersal ability, several studies failed to find a clear relationship between range size and duration of larval stage as a measure of dispersal potential. We investigated how six characteristics of the adult phase of fishes (maximum body length, growth rate, age at first maturity, life span, trophic level and frequency of occurrence) possibly associated with colonization ability correlate with range size in both freshwater and marine species at global scale. We used more than 12 million point records to estimate range size of 1829 freshwater species and 10068 marine species. As measures of range size we used both area of occupancy and extent of occurrence. Relationships between range size and species traits were assessed using Canonical Correlation Analysis. We found that frequency of occurrence and maximum body length had a strong influence on range size measures, which is consistent with patterns previously found (at smaller scales) in several other taxa. Freshwater and marine fishes showed striking similarities, suggesting the existence of common mechanisms regulating fish biogeography in the marine and freshwater realms.

Tigers of Sundarbans in India: is the population a separate conservation unit?

PubMed

Singh, Sujeet Kumar; Mishra, Sudhanshu; Aspi, Jouni; Kvist, Laura; Nigam, Parag; Pandey, Puneet; Sharma, Reeta; Goyal, Surendra Prakash

2014-01-01

The Sundarbans tiger inhabits a unique mangrove habitat and are morphologically distinct from the recognized tiger subspecies in terms of skull morphometrics and body size. Thus, there is an urgent need to assess their ecological and genetic distinctiveness and determine if Sundarbans tigers should be defined and managed as separate conservation unit. We utilized nine microsatellites and 3 kb from four mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genes to estimate genetic variability, population structure, demographic parameters and visualize historic and contemporary connectivity among tiger populations from Sundarbans and mainland India. We also evaluated the traits that determine exchangeability or adaptive differences among tiger populations. Data from both markers suggest that Sundarbans tiger is not a separate tiger subspecies and should be regarded as Bengal tiger (P. t. tigris) subspecies. Maximum likelihood phylogenetic analyses of the mtDNA data revealed reciprocal monophyly. Genetic differentiation was found stronger for mtDNA than nuclear DNA. Microsatellite markers indicated low genetic variation in Sundarbans tigers (He= 0.58) as compared to other mainland populations, such as northern and Peninsular (Hebetween 0.67- 0.70). Molecular data supports migration between mainland and Sundarbans populations until very recent times. We attribute this reduction in gene flow to accelerated fragmentation and habitat alteration in the landscape over the past few centuries. Demographic analyses suggest that Sundarbans tigers have diverged recently from peninsular tiger population within last 2000 years. Sundarbans tigers are the most divergent group of Bengal tigers, and ecologically non-exchangeable with other tiger populations, and thus should be managed as a separate "evolutionarily significant unit" (ESU) following the adaptive evolutionary conservation (AEC) concept.

Climate adaptation is not enough: warming does not facilitate success of southern tundra plant populations in the high Arctic.

PubMed

Bjorkman, Anne D; Vellend, Mark; Frei, Esther R; Henry, Gregory H R

2017-04-01

Rapidly rising temperatures are expected to cause latitudinal and elevational range shifts as species track their optimal climate north and upward. However, a lack of adaptation to environmental conditions other than climate - for example photoperiod, biotic interactions, or edaphic conditions - might limit the success of immigrants in a new location despite hospitable climatic conditions. Here, we present one of the first direct experimental tests of the hypothesis that warmer temperatures at northern latitudes will confer a fitness advantage to southern immigrants relative to native populations. As rates of warming in the Arctic are more than double the global average, understanding the impacts of warming in Arctic ecosystems is especially urgent. We established experimentally warmed and nonwarmed common garden plots at Alexandra Fiord, Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic with seeds of two forb species (Oxyria digyna and Papaver radicatum) originating from three to five populations at different latitudes across the Arctic. We found that plants from the local populations generally had higher survival and obtained a greater maximum size than foreign individuals, regardless of warming treatment. Phenological traits varied with latitude of the source population, such that southern populations demonstrated substantially delayed leaf-out and senescence relative to northern populations. Our results suggest that environmental conditions other than temperature may influence the ability of foreign populations and species to establish at more northerly latitudes as the climate warms, potentially leading to lags in northward range shifts for some species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Marginal Maximum A Posteriori Item Parameter Estimation for the Generalized Graded Unfolding Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, James S.; Thompson, Vanessa M.

2011-01-01

A marginal maximum a posteriori (MMAP) procedure was implemented to estimate item parameters in the generalized graded unfolding model (GGUM). Estimates from the MMAP method were compared with those derived from marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedures in a recovery simulation that varied sample size,…

The Determinants of Parental Effort in Education Production: Do Parents Respond to Changes in Class Size?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonesronning, Hans

2004-01-01

The present paper supplements the traditional class size literature by exploring the causal relationship between class size and parental effort in education production. Class size variation that is exogenous to parental effort comes from interaction between enrollment and a maximum class size rule of 30 students in the lower secondary school in…

Size distribution and growth rate of crystal nuclei near critical undercooling in small volumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kožíšek, Z.; Demo, P.

2017-11-01

Kinetic equations are numerically solved within standard nucleation model to determine the size distribution of nuclei in small volumes near critical undercooling. Critical undercooling, when first nuclei are detected within the system, depends on the droplet volume. The size distribution of nuclei reaches the stationary value after some time delay and decreases with nucleus size. Only a certain maximum size of nuclei is reached in small volumes near critical undercooling. As a model system, we selected recently studied nucleation in Ni droplet [J. Bokeloh et al., Phys. Rev. Let. 107 (2011) 145701] due to available experimental and simulation data. However, using these data for sample masses from 23 μg up to 63 mg (corresponding to experiments) leads to the size distribution of nuclei, when no critical nuclei in Ni droplet are formed (the number of critical nuclei < 1). If one takes into account the size dependence of the interfacial energy, the size distribution of nuclei increases to reasonable values. In lower volumes (V ≤ 10-9 m3) nucleus size reaches some maximum extreme size, which quickly increases with undercooling. Supercritical clusters continue their growth only if the number of critical nuclei is sufficiently high.

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

PubMed

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk

PubMed Central

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

Growth of the eye lens: II. Allometric studies

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to examine the ontogeny and phylogeny of lens growth in a variety of species using allometry. Methods Data on the accumulation of wet and/or dry lens weight as a function of bodyweight were obtained for 40 species and subjected to allometric analysis to examine ontogenic growth and compaction. Allometric analysis was also used to compare the maximum adult lens weights for 147 species with the maximum adult bodyweight and to compare lens volumes calculated from wet and dry weights with eye volumes calculated from axial length. Results Linear allometric relationships were obtained for the comparison of ontogenic lens and bodyweight accumulation. The body mass exponent (BME) decreased with increasing animal size from around 1.0 in small rodents to 0.4 in large ungulates for both wet and dry weights. Compaction constants for the ontogenic growth ranged from 1.00 in birds and reptiles up to 1.30 in mammals. Allometric comparison of maximum lens wet and dry weights with maximum bodyweights also yielded linear plots with a BME of 0.504 for all warm blooded species except primates which had a BME of 0.25. When lens volumes were compared with eye volumes, all species yielded a scaling constant of 0.75 but the proportionality constants for primates and birds were lower. Conclusions Ontogenic lens growth is fastest, relative to body growth, in small animals and slowest in large animals. Fiber cell compaction takes place throughout life in most species, but not in birds and reptiles. Maximum adult lens size scales with eye size with the same exponent in all species, but birds and primates have smaller lenses relative to eye size than other species. Optical properties of the lens are generated through the combination of variations in the rate of growth, rate of compaction, shape and size. PMID:24715759

A simple approach to lifetime learning in genetic programming-based symbolic regression.

PubMed

Azad, Raja Muhammad Atif; Ryan, Conor

2014-01-01

Genetic programming (GP) coarsely models natural evolution to evolve computer programs. Unlike in nature, where individuals can often improve their fitness through lifetime experience, the fitness of GP individuals generally does not change during their lifetime, and there is usually no opportunity to pass on acquired knowledge. This paper introduces the Chameleon system to address this discrepancy and augment GP with lifetime learning by adding a simple local search that operates by tuning the internal nodes of individuals. Although not the first attempt to combine local search with GP, its simplicity means that it is easy to understand and cheap to implement. A simple cache is added which leverages the local search to reduce the tuning cost to a small fraction of the expected cost, and we provide a theoretical upper limit on the maximum tuning expense given the average tree size of the population and show that this limit grows very conservatively as the average tree size of the population increases. We show that Chameleon uses available genetic material more efficiently by exploring more actively than with standard GP, and demonstrate that not only does Chameleon outperform standard GP (on both training and test data) over a number of symbolic regression type problems, it does so by producing smaller individuals and it works harmoniously with two other well-known extensions to GP, namely, linear scaling and a diversity-promoting tournament selection method.

The evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting extends from genes to populations

PubMed Central

Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Whiteley, Andrew R; Kuparinen, Anna; Matsumura, Shuichi; Venturelli, Paul A; Wolter, Christian; Slate, Jon; Primmer, Craig R; Meinelt, Thomas; Killen, Shaun S; Bierbach, David; Polverino, Giovanni; Ludwig, Arne; Arlinghaus, Robert

2015-01-01

Size-selective harvesting is assumed to alter life histories of exploited fish populations, thereby negatively affecting population productivity, recovery, and yield. However, demonstrating that fisheries-induced phenotypic changes in the wild are at least partly genetically determined has proved notoriously difficult. Moreover, the population-level consequences of fisheries-induced evolution are still being controversially discussed. Using an experimental approach, we found that five generations of size-selective harvesting altered the life histories and behavior, but not the metabolic rate, of wild-origin zebrafish (Danio rerio). Fish adapted to high positively size selective fishing pressure invested more in reproduction, reached a smaller adult body size, and were less explorative and bold. Phenotypic changes seemed subtle but were accompanied by genetic changes in functional loci. Thus, our results provided unambiguous evidence for rapid, harvest-induced phenotypic and evolutionary change when harvesting is intensive and size selective. According to a life-history model, the observed life-history changes elevated population growth rate in harvested conditions, but slowed population recovery under a simulated moratorium. Hence, the evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting includes populations that are productive under exploited conditions, but selectively disadvantaged to cope with natural selection pressures that often favor large body size. PMID:26136825

Spatial variation in egg size of a top predator: Interplay of body size and environmental factors?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louzao, Maite; Igual, José M.; Genovart, Meritxell; Forero, Manuela G.; Hobson, Keith A.; Oro, Daniel

2008-09-01

It is expected that nearby populations are constrained by the same ecological features shaping in turn similarity in their ecological traits. Here, we studied the spatio-temporal variability in egg size among local populations of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus, a top marine predator endemic to the western Mediterranean region. Specifically we assessed whether this trait was influenced by maternal body size, as an indicator of a genetic component, and feeding ecology (through stable-carbon and nitrogen-isotope measurements), as an indicator of environmental factors. We found that egg size varied among local populations, an unexpected result at such a small spatial scale. Body size differences at the local population level only partially explained such differences. Blood isotope measurements also differed among local populations. Values of δ 15N suggested inter-population differences in trophic level, showing a similar general pattern with egg size, and suggesting a nutritional link between them whereby egg size was affected by differences in feeding resources and/or behaviour. Values of δ 13C suggested that local populations did not differ in foraging habits with respect to benthic- vs. pelagic-based food-webs. Egg size did not vary among years as did breeding performance, suggesting that a differential temporal window could affect both breeding parameters in relation to food availability. The absence of a relationship between breeding performance and egg size suggested that larger eggs might only confer an advantage during harsh conditions. Alternatively parental quality could greatly affect breeding performance. We showed that inter-population differences in egg size could be influenced by both body size and environmental factors.

Mechanical limits to maximum weapon size in a giant rhinoceros beetle.

PubMed

McCullough, Erin L

2014-07-07

The horns of giant rhinoceros beetles are a classic example of the elaborate morphologies that can result from sexual selection. Theory predicts that sexual traits will evolve to be increasingly exaggerated until survival costs balance the reproductive benefits of further trait elaboration. In Trypoxylus dichotomus, long horns confer a competitive advantage to males, yet previous studies have found that they do not incur survival costs. It is therefore unlikely that horn size is limited by the theoretical cost-benefit equilibrium. However, males sometimes fight vigorously enough to break their horns, so mechanical limits may set an upper bound on horn size. Here, I tested this mechanical limit hypothesis by measuring safety factors across the full range of horn sizes. Safety factors were calculated as the ratio between the force required to break a horn and the maximum force exerted on a horn during a typical fight. I found that safety factors decrease with increasing horn length, indicating that the risk of breakage is indeed highest for the longest horns. Structural failure of oversized horns may therefore oppose the continued exaggeration of horn length driven by male-male competition and set a mechanical limit on the maximum size of rhinoceros beetle horns. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Comparing models on the genealogical relationships among Neandertal, Cro-Magnoid and modern Europeans by serial coalescent simulations.

PubMed

Belle, E M S; Benazzo, A; Ghirotto, S; Colonna, V; Barbujani, G

2009-03-01

Populations of anatomically archaic (Neandertal) and early modern (Cro-Magnoid) humans are jointly documented in the European fossil record, in the period between 40 000 and 25 000 years BP, but the large differences between their cultures, morphologies and DNAs suggest that the two groups were not close relatives. However, it is still unclear whether any genealogical continuity between them can be ruled out. Here, we simulated a broad range of demographic scenarios by means of a serial coalescence algorithm in which Neandertals, Cro-Magnoids and modern Europeans were either part of the same mitochondrial genealogy or of two separate genealogies. Mutation rates, population sizes, population structure and demographic growth rates varied across simulations. All models in which anatomically modern (that is, Cro-Magnoid and current) Europeans belong to a distinct genealogy performed better than any model in which the three groups were assigned to the same mitochondrial genealogy. The maximum admissible level of gene flow between Neandertals and the ancestors of current Europeans is 0.001% per generation, one order of magnitude lower than estimated in previous studies not considering genetic data on Cro-Magnoid people.

Species profiles: Life histories and environmental requirements of coastal fishes and invertebrates (south Florida): Long-spined Black Sea urchin. [Diadema antillarum

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ogden, J.C.; Carpenter, R.C.

1987-08-01

The long-spined black sea urchin, Diadema antillarum, is one of the most common marine invertebrates in the South Florida and Caribbean regions. Diadema is gregarious and is found in large groups on hard bottom in shallow waters. Spawning is year-round, concentrated in late winter to early summer, and the larvae spend an unknown period in the plankton. Following settlement, growth is rapid, to a maximum size of about 10 cm in 3 to 4 years. Diadema is a grazer, feeding on small algal filaments and on seagrass, and tends to be active at night. Grazing activities can produce grazed halosmore » around patch reefs in the vicinity of seagrass beds. Many experiments have indicated the importance of this grazing in the coexistence of species on the reef and in maintaining high biological productivity. In 1983-84, Diadema suffered an unprecedented mass mortality and its populations were reduced by up to 98% throughout its range. The elimination of Diadema has affected algal biomass, reef productivity, and fish populations. Diadema populations are slowly beginning to increase, but complete recovery may take years.« less

Using genetic data to estimate diffusion rates in heterogeneous landscapes.

PubMed

Roques, L; Walker, E; Franck, P; Soubeyrand, S; Klein, E K

2016-08-01

Having a precise knowledge of the dispersal ability of a population in a heterogeneous environment is of critical importance in agroecology and conservation biology as it can provide management tools to limit the effects of pests or to increase the survival of endangered species. In this paper, we propose a mechanistic-statistical method to estimate space-dependent diffusion parameters of spatially-explicit models based on stochastic differential equations, using genetic data. Dividing the total population into subpopulations corresponding to different habitat patches with known allele frequencies, the expected proportions of individuals from each subpopulation at each position is computed by solving a system of reaction-diffusion equations. Modelling the capture and genotyping of the individuals with a statistical approach, we derive a numerically tractable formula for the likelihood function associated with the diffusion parameters. In a simulated environment made of three types of regions, each associated with a different diffusion coefficient, we successfully estimate the diffusion parameters with a maximum-likelihood approach. Although higher genetic differentiation among subpopulations leads to more accurate estimations, once a certain level of differentiation has been reached, the finite size of the genotyped population becomes the limiting factor for accurate estimation.

Coulomb explosion of hydrogen clusters irradiated by an ultrashort intense laser pulse

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li Hongyu; Liu Jiansheng; Wang Cheng

The explosion dynamics of hydrogen clusters driven by an ultrashort intense laser pulse has been analyzed analytically and numerically by employing a simplified Coulomb explosion model. The dependence of average and maximum proton kinetic energy on cluster size, pulse duration, and laser intensity has been investigated respectively. The existence of an optimum cluster size allows the proton energy to reach the maximum when the cluster size matches with the intensity and the duration of the laser pulse. In order to explain our experimental results such as the measured proton energy spectrum and the saturation effect of proton energy, the effectsmore » of cluster size distribution as well as the laser intensity distribution on the focus spot should be considered. A good agreement between them is obtained.« less

Coulomb explosion of hydrogen clusters irradiated by an ultrashort intense laser pulse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongyu; Liu, Jiansheng; Wang, Cheng; Ni, Guoquan; Li, Ruxin; Xu, Zhizhan

2006-08-01

The explosion dynamics of hydrogen clusters driven by an ultrashort intense laser pulse has been analyzed analytically and numerically by employing a simplified Coulomb explosion model. The dependence of average and maximum proton kinetic energy on cluster size, pulse duration, and laser intensity has been investigated respectively. The existence of an optimum cluster size allows the proton energy to reach the maximum when the cluster size matches with the intensity and the duration of the laser pulse. In order to explain our experimental results such as the measured proton energy spectrum and the saturation effect of proton energy, the effects of cluster size distribution as well as the laser intensity distribution on the focus spot should be considered. A good agreement between them is obtained.

On Determining the Rise, Size, and Duration Classes of a Sunspot Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

1996-09-01

The behavior of ascent duration, maximum amplitude, and period for cycles 1 to 21 suggests that they are not mutually independent. Analysis of the resultant three-dimensional contingency table for cycles divided according to rise time (ascent duration), size (maximum amplitude), and duration (period) yields a chi-square statistic (= 18.59) that is larger than the test statistic (= 9.49 for 4 degrees-of-freedom at the 5-percent level of significance), thereby, inferring that the null hypothesis (mutual independence) can be rejected. Analysis of individual 2 by 2 contingency tables (based on Fisher's exact test) for these parameters shows that, while ascent duration is strongly related to maximum amplitude in the negative sense (inverse correlation) - the Waldmeier effect, it also is related (marginally) to period, but in the positive sense (direct correlation). No significant (or marginally significant) correlation is found between period and maximum amplitude. Using cycle 22 as a test case, we show that by the 12th month following conventional onset, cycle 22 appeared highly likely to be a fast-rising, larger-than-average-size cycle. Because of the inferred correlation between ascent duration and period, it also seems likely that it will have a period shorter than average length.

On Determining the Rise, Size, and Duration Classes of a Sunspot Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

1996-01-01

The behavior of ascent duration, maximum amplitude, and period for cycles 1 to 21 suggests that they are not mutually independent. Analysis of the resultant three-dimensional contingency table for cycles divided according to rise time (ascent duration), size (maximum amplitude), and duration (period) yields a chi-square statistic (= 18.59) that is larger than the test statistic (= 9.49 for 4 degrees-of-freedom at the 5-percent level of significance), thereby, inferring that the null hypothesis (mutual independence) can be rejected. Analysis of individual 2 by 2 contingency tables (based on Fisher's exact test) for these parameters shows that, while ascent duration is strongly related to maximum amplitude in the negative sense (inverse correlation) - the Waldmeier effect, it also is related (marginally) to period, but in the positive sense (direct correlation). No significant (or marginally significant) correlation is found between period and maximum amplitude. Using cycle 22 as a test case, we show that by the 12th month following conventional onset, cycle 22 appeared highly likely to be a fast-rising, larger-than-average-size cycle. Because of the inferred correlation between ascent duration and period, it also seems likely that it will have a period shorter than average length.

Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Schrey, Aaron W; Ragsdale, Alexandria K; McCoy, Earl D; Mushinsky, Henry R

2016-07-01

Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. © The American Genetic Association. 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Adapting to an invasive species: toxic cane toads induce morphological change in Australian snakes.

PubMed

Phillips, Ben L; Shine, Richard

2004-12-07

The arrival of invasive species can devastate natural ecosystems, but the long-term effects of invasion are less clear. If native organisms can adapt to the presence of the invader, the severity of impact will decline with time. In Australia, invasive cane toads (Bufo marinus) are highly toxic to most snakes that attempt to eat them. Because snakes are gape-limited predators with strong negative allometry for head size, maximum relative prey mass (and thus, the probability of eating a toad large enough to be fatal) decreases with an increase in snake body size. Thus, the arrival of toads should exert selection on snake morphology, favoring an increase in mean body size and a decrease in relative head size. We tested these predictions with data from specimens of four species of Australian snakes, collected over >80 years. Geographic information system layers provided data on the duration of toad exposure for each snake population, as well as environmental variables (latitude, precipitation, and temperature). As predicted, two toad-vulnerable species (Pseudechis porphyriacus and Dendrelaphis punctulatus) showed a steady reduction in gape size and a steady increase in body length with time since exposure to toads. In contrast, two species at low risk from toads (Hemiaspis signata and Tropidonophis mairii) showed no consistent change in these morphological traits as a function of the duration of toad exposure. These results provide strong evidence of adaptive changes in native predators as a result of the invasion of toxic prey.

Population size dependency of measles epidemic that was scalable from Japanese prefectures to European countries.

PubMed

Yoshikura, Hiroshi

2018-04-27

Relation between number of measles patients (y) and population size (x) was expressed by an equation y = ax s , where a is a constant and s the slope of the plot; s was 2.04-2.17 for prefectures in Japan, i.e., the number of patients was proportional to square of the prefecture population size. For European countries that joined European Union no later than 2009, the slope was 1.43-1.87. The measles' population dependency found among prefectures in Japan was thus scalable up to European countries. It was surprising because, unlike Japan, population density in EU countries was not uniform and not proportional to the population size. The population size dependency was not observed among Western Pacific and South-East Asian countries probably on account of confounding interacting socioeconomic factors. Correlation between measles incidence and birth rate, infant mortality or GDP per capita was almost insignificant.Size distribution of local infection clusters (LICs) of measles and rubella in Japan followed power law. For measles, though the population dependency remained unchanged after "elimination", there was change in the Zipf-type plot of LIC sizes. After the "elimination", LICs linked to importation-related outbreaks in less populated prefectures emerged as the top-ranked LICs.

A New Method for Estimating the Effective Population Size from Allele Frequency Changes

PubMed Central

Pollak, Edward

1983-01-01

A new procedure is proposed for estimating the effective population size, given that information is available on changes in frequencies of the alleles at one or more independently segregating loci and the population is observed at two or more separate times. Approximate expressions are obtained for the variances of the new statistic, as well as others, also based on allele frequency changes, that have been discussed in the literature. This analysis indicates that the new statistic will generally have a smaller variance than the others. Estimates of effective population sizes and of the standard errors of the estimates are computed for data on two fly populations that have been discussed in earlier papers. In both cases, there is evidence that the effective population size is very much smaller than the minimum census size of the population. PMID:17246147

Colonial, more widely distributed and less abundant bird species undergo wider population fluctuations independent of their population trend

PubMed Central

Møller, Anders P.

2017-01-01

Understanding temporal variability in population size is important for conservation biology because wide population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction. Previous studies suggested that certain ecological, demographic, life-history and genetic characteristics of species might be related to the degree of their population fluctuations. We checked whether that was the case in a large sample of 231 European breeding bird species while taking a number of potentially confounding factors such as population trends or similarities among species due to common descent into account. When species-specific characteristics were analysed one by one, the magnitude of population fluctuations was positively related to coloniality, habitat, total breeding range, heterogeneity of breeding distribution and natal dispersal, and negatively related to urbanisation, abundance, relative number of subspecies, parasitism and proportion of polymorphic loci. However, when abundance (population size) was included in the analyses of the other parameters, only coloniality, habitat, total breeding range and abundance remained significantly related to population fluctuations. The analysis including all these predictors simultaneously showed that population size fluctuated more in colonial, less abundant species with larger breeding ranges. Other parameters seemed to be related to population fluctuations only because of their association with abundance or coloniality. The unexpected positive relationship between population fluctuations and total breeding range did not seem to be mediated by abundance. The link between population fluctuations and coloniality suggests a previously unrecognized cost of coloniality. The negative relationship between population size and population fluctuations might be explained by at least three types of non-mutually exclusive stochastic processes: demographic, environmental and genetic stochasticity. Measurement error in population indices, which was unknown, may have contributed to the negative relationship between population size and fluctuations, but apparently only to a minor extent. The association between population size and fluctuations suggests that populations might be stabilized by increasing population size. PMID:28253345

Measurement and relevance of maximum metabolic rate in fishes.

PubMed

Norin, T; Clark, T D

2016-01-01

Maximum (aerobic) metabolic rate (MMR) is defined here as the maximum rate of oxygen consumption (M˙O2max ) that a fish can achieve at a given temperature under any ecologically relevant circumstance. Different techniques exist for eliciting MMR of fishes, of which swim-flume respirometry (critical swimming speed tests and burst-swimming protocols) and exhaustive chases are the most common. Available data suggest that the most suitable method for eliciting MMR varies with species and ecotype, and depends on the propensity of the fish to sustain swimming for extended durations as well as its capacity to simultaneously exercise and digest food. MMR varies substantially (>10 fold) between species with different lifestyles (i.e. interspecific variation), and to a lesser extent (

Reproduction of the giant jellyfish, Nemopilema nomurai (Scyphozoa: Rhizostomeae), in 2006-2008 as peripherally-transported populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iguchi, Naoki; Lee, Hye Eun; Yoon, Won Duk; Kim, Suam

2010-06-01

This study investigated the sexual maturation process, release of spermatozoa or eggs and oocyte diameter of the rhizostomid medusae Nemopilema nomurai using samples collected from August 2006 to June 2008 from the waters around Korea and Japan, including peripheral areas outside the species’ usual habitat. Immature medusae were observed from June to October only in the western sector of the study area. The onset of spermatozoa and egg release occurred in September and October, respectively, and peaked in December and January. Medusae migrated eastward from source areas with the Tsushima Warm Current, where they formed gametes and spawned. Peak position and maximum oocyte diameter increased as the gonads developed according to the size-frequency distribution of oocytes. No fertilized eggs or embryos were found in the gonads. The correlation was analyzed with bell diameter, maximum oocyte diameter, sampling date, surface water temperature and gonad color to estimate which environmental factors and maturation indices were related to the maturation stage of females. Maturation stage correlated well with maximum oocyte diameter, which correlated negatively with surface water temperature. There was no significant correlation between bell diameter and maturation stage. Therefore, bell diameter was inappropriate for determining maturation index. Sex could not be distinguished clearly by gonad color. However, light pink gonads were more prevalent in males and various deep colors such as orange and brown were more frequent in female medusae.

Cooperative 3D Path Optimization (C3PO) Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-10

is the starting point for the path. As branches are added, they are checked to make sure they meet the requirements that the unmanned vehicle (UV...tune the maximum branch size for the tree to get longer branches. It makes sense that in open space this would lead to smaller (by number of nodes...starting with very high maximum branch size and gradually make it smaller as suitable paths can’t be found. The authors would also like to try this

Hierarchical complexity and the size limits of life.

PubMed

Heim, Noel A; Payne, Jonathan L; Finnegan, Seth; Knope, Matthew L; Kowalewski, Michał; Lyons, S Kathleen; McShea, Daniel W; Novack-Gottshall, Philip M; Smith, Felisa A; Wang, Steve C

2017-06-28

Over the past 3.8 billion years, the maximum size of life has increased by approximately 18 orders of magnitude. Much of this increase is associated with two major evolutionary innovations: the evolution of eukaryotes from prokaryotic cells approximately 1.9 billion years ago (Ga), and multicellular life diversifying from unicellular ancestors approximately 0.6 Ga. However, the quantitative relationship between organismal size and structural complexity remains poorly documented. We assessed this relationship using a comprehensive dataset that includes organismal size and level of biological complexity for 11 172 extant genera. We find that the distributions of sizes within complexity levels are unimodal, whereas the aggregate distribution is multimodal. Moreover, both the mean size and the range of size occupied increases with each additional level of complexity. Increases in size range are non-symmetric: the maximum organismal size increases more than the minimum. The majority of the observed increase in organismal size over the history of life on the Earth is accounted for by two discrete jumps in complexity rather than evolutionary trends within levels of complexity. Our results provide quantitative support for an evolutionary expansion away from a minimal size constraint and suggest a fundamental rescaling of the constraints on minimal and maximal size as biological complexity increases. © 2017 The Author(s).

Drought survival and reproduction impose contrasting selection pressures on maximum body size and sexual size dimorphism in a snake, Seminatrix pygaea.

PubMed

Winne, Christopher T; Willson, John D; Whitfield Gibbons, J

2010-04-01

The causes and consequences of body size and sexual size dimorphism (SSD) have been central questions in evolutionary ecology. Two, often opposing selective forces are suspected to act on body size in animals: survival selection and reproductive (fecundity and sexual) selection. We have recently identified a system where a small aquatic snake species (Seminatrix pygaea) is capable of surviving severe droughts by aestivating within dried, isolated wetlands. We tested the hypothesis that the lack of aquatic prey during severe droughts would impose significant survivorship pressures on S. pygaea, and that the largest individuals, particularly females, would be most adversely affected by resource limitation. Our findings suggest that both sexes experience selection against large body size during severe drought when prey resources are limited, as nearly all S. pygaea are absent from the largest size classes and maximum body size and SSD are dramatically reduced following drought. Conversely, strong positive correlations between maternal body size and reproductive success in S. pygaea suggest that females experience fecundity selection for large size during non-drought years. Collectively, our study emphasizes the dynamic interplay between selection pressures that act on body size and supports theoretical predictions about the relationship between body size and survivorship in ectotherms under conditions of resource limitation.

Respiratory symptoms following wildfire smoke exposure: airway size as a susceptibility factor.

PubMed

Mirabelli, Maria C; Künzli, Nino; Avol, Edward; Gilliland, Frank D; Gauderman, W James; McConnell, Rob; Peters, John M

2009-05-01

Associations between exposure to smoke during wildfire events and respiratory symptoms are well documented, but the role of airway size remains unclear. We conducted this analysis to assess whether small airway size modifies these relationships. We analyzed data from 465 nonasthmatic 16- to 19-year-old participants in the Children's Health Study. Following an outbreak of wildfires in 2003, each student completed a questionnaire about smoke exposure, dry and wet cough, wheezing, and eye symptoms. We used log-binomial regression to evaluate associations between smoke exposure and fire-related health symptoms, and to assess modification of the associations by airway size. As a marker of airway size, we used the ratio of maximum midexpiratory flow to forced vital capacity. Forty percent (186 of 465) of this population (including students from 11 of 12 surveyed communities) reported the odor of wildfire smoke at home. We observed increased respiratory and eye symptoms with increasing frequency of wildfire smoke exposure. Associations between smoke exposure and having any of 4 respiratory symptoms were stronger in the lowest quartile of the lung function ratio (eg, fire smoke 6+ days: prevalence ratio: 3.8; 95% confidence interval (CI = 2.0-7.2), compared with the remaining quartiles (fire smoke 6+ days: prevalence ratio = 2.0; 1.2-3.2). Analysis of individual symptoms suggests that this interaction may be strongest for effects on wheezing. Small airways may serve as a marker of susceptibility to effects of wildfire smoke. Future studies should investigate the role of airway size for more common exposures and should include persons with asthma.

Accounting for patient size in the optimization of dose and image quality of pelvis cone beam CT protocols on the Varian OBI system.

PubMed

Wood, Tim J; Moore, Craig S; Horsfield, Carl J; Saunderson, John R; Beavis, Andrew W

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop size-based radiotherapy kilovoltage cone beam CT (CBCT) protocols for the pelvis. Image noise was measured in an elliptical phantom of varying size for a range of exposure factors. Based on a previously defined "small pelvis" reference patient and CBCT protocol, appropriate exposure factors for small, medium, large and extra-large patients were derived which approximate the image noise behaviour observed on a Philips CT scanner (Philips Medical Systems, Best, Netherlands) with automatic exposure control (AEC). Selection criteria, based on maximum tube current-time product per rotation selected during the radiotherapy treatment planning scan, were derived based on an audit of patient size. It has been demonstrated that 110 kVp yields acceptable image noise for reduced patient dose in pelvic CBCT scans of small, medium and large patients, when compared with manufacturer's default settings (125 kVp). Conversely, extra-large patients require increased exposure factors to give acceptable images. 57% of patients in the local population now receive much lower radiation doses, whereas 13% require higher doses (but now yield acceptable images). The implementation of size-based exposure protocols has significantly reduced radiation dose to the majority of patients with no negative impact on image quality. Increased doses are required on the largest patients to give adequate image quality. The development of size-based CBCT protocols that use the planning CT scan (with AEC) to determine which protocol is appropriate ensures adequate image quality whilst minimizing patient radiation dose.

Population estimates of Nearctic shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2000-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fell in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500,000. Population size was inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log (population size) and log (mass). Two outlying groups were evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, included species considered either to be "at risk" or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, included two species that are hunted. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada, and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Estimates of shorebird populations in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2001-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fall in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500 000. Population size is inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log(population size) and log(mass). Two outlying groups are evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, includes species considered to be either “at risk” or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, includes two species that are hunted. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration, and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Maturation and sexual ontogeny in the spangled emperor Lethrinus nebulosus.

PubMed

Marriott, R J; Jarvis, N D C; Adams, D J; Gallash, A E; Norriss, J; Newman, S J

2010-04-01

The reproductive development and sexual ontogeny of spangled emperor Lethrinus nebulosus populations in the Ningaloo Marine Park (NMP) were investigated to obtain an improved understanding of its evolved reproductive strategy and data for fisheries management. Evidence derived from (1) analyses of histological data and sampled sex ratios with size and age, (2) the identification of residual previtellogenic oocytes in immature and mature testes sampled during the spawning season and (3) observed changes in testis internal structure with increasing fish size and age, demonstrated a non-functional protogynous hermaphroditic strategy (or functional gonochorism). All the smallest and youngest fish sampled were female until they either changed sex to male at a mean 277.5 mm total length (L(T)) and 2.3 years old or remained female and matured at a larger mean L(T) (392.1 mm) and older age (3.5 years). Gonad masses were similar for males and females over the size range sampled and throughout long reproductive lives (up to a maximum estimated age of c. 31 years), which was another correlate of functional gonochorism. That the mean L(T) at sex change and female maturity were below the current minimum legal size (MLS) limit (410 mm) demonstrated that the current MLS limit is effective for preventing recreational fishers in the NMP retaining at least half of the juvenile males and females in their landed catches.

Nutritional effects of culture media on mycoplasma cell size and removal by filtration.

PubMed

Folmsbee, Martha; Howard, Glenn; McAlister, Morven

2010-03-01

Careful media filtration prior to use is an important part of a mycoplasma contamination prevention program. This study was conducted to increase our knowledge of factors that influence efficient filtration of mycoplasma. The cell size of Acholeplasma laidlawii was measured after culture in various nutritional conditions using scanning electron microscopy. The maximum cell size changed, but the minimum cell size remained virtually unchanged and all tested nutritional conditions resulted in a population of cells smaller than 0.2 microm. Culture in Tryptic Soy Broth (TSB) resulted in an apparent increase in the percentage of very small cells which was not reflected in increased penetration of non-retentive 0.2 microm rated filters. A. laidlawii cultured in selected media formulations was used to challenge 0.2 microm rated filters using mycoplasma broth base as the carrier fluid. We used 0.2 microm rated filters as an analytical tool because A. laidlawii is known to penetrate 0.2 microm filters and the degrees of penetration can be compared. Culture of A. laidlawii in TSB resulted in cells that did not penetrate 0.2 microm rated filters to the same degree as cells cultured in other media such as mycoplasma broth or in TSB supplemented with 10% horse serum. (c) 2009 The International Association for Biologicals. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperatures in Excess of Critical Thresholds Threaten Nestling Growth and Survival in A Rapidly-Warming Arid Savanna: A Study of Common Fiscals

PubMed Central

Cunningham, Susan J.; Martin, Rowan O.; Hojem, Carryn L.

2013-01-01

Frequency, duration, and intensity of hot-weather events are all predicted to increase with climate warming. Despite this, mechanisms by which temperature increases affect individual fitness and drive population-level changes are poorly understood. We investigated the link between daily maximum air temperature (tmax) and breeding success of Kalahari common fiscals (Lanius collaris) in terms of the daily effect on nestling body-mass gain, and the cumulative effect on size and age of fledglings. High tmax reduced mass gain of younger, but not older nestlings and average nestling-period tmax did not affect fledgling size. Instead, the frequency with which tmax exceeded critical thresholds (tcrits) significantly reduced fledging body mass (tcrit = 33°C) and tarsus length (tcrit = 37°C), as well as delaying fledging (tcrit = 35°C). Nest failure risk was 4.2% per day therefore delays reduced fledging probability. Smaller size at fledging often correlates with reduced lifetime fitness and might also underlie documented adult body-size reductions in desert birds in relation to climate warming. Temperature thresholds above which organisms incur fitness costs are probably common, as physiological responses to temperature are non-linear. Understanding the shape of the relationship between temperature and fitness has implications for our ability to predict species’ responses to climate change. PMID:24040296

The extreme risk of personal data breaches and the erosion of privacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheatley, Spencer; Maillart, Thomas; Sornette, Didier

2016-01-01

Personal data breaches from organisations, enabling mass identity fraud, constitute an extreme risk. This risk worsens daily as an ever-growing amount of personal data are stored by organisations and on-line, and the attack surface surrounding this data becomes larger and harder to secure. Further, breached information is distributed and accumulates in the hands of cyber criminals, thus driving a cumulative erosion of privacy. Statistical modeling of breach data from 2000 through 2015 provides insights into this risk: A current maximum breach size of about 200 million is detected, and is expected to grow by fifty percent over the next five years. The breach sizes are found to be well modeled by an extremely heavy tailed truncated Pareto distribution, with tail exponent parameter decreasing linearly from 0.57 in 2007 to 0.37 in 2015. With this current model, given a breach contains above fifty thousand items, there is a ten percent probability of exceeding ten million. A size effect is unearthed where both the frequency and severity of breaches scale with organisation size like s0.6. Projections indicate that the total amount of breached information is expected to double from two to four billion items within the next five years, eclipsing the population of users of the Internet. This massive and uncontrolled dissemination of personal identities raises fundamental concerns about privacy.

Spatio-temporal spawning and larval dynamics of a zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) population in a North Texas Reservoir: implications for invasions in the southern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Churchill, Christopher John

2013-01-01

Zebra mussels were first observed in Texas in 2009 in a reservoir (Lake Texoma) on the Texas-Oklahoma border. In 2012, an established population was found in a near-by reservoir, Ray Roberts Lake, and in June 2013, settled mussels were detected in a third north Texas reservoir, Lake Lewisville. An established population was detected in Belton Lake in September 2013. With the exception of Louisiana, these occurrences in Texas mark the current southern extent of the range of this species in the United States. Previous studies indicate that zebra mussel populations could be affected by environmental conditions, especially increased temperatures and extreme droughts, which are characteristic of surface waters of the southern and southwestern United States. Data collected during the first three years (2010–12) of a long-term monitoring program were analyzed to determine if spatio-temporal zebra mussel spawning and larval dynamics were related to physicochemical water properties in Lake Texoma. Reproductive output of the local population was significantly related to water temperature and lake elevation. Estimated mean date of first spawn in Lake Texoma was approximately 1.5 months earlier and peak veliger densities were observed two months earlier than in Lake Erie. Annual maximum veliger density declined significantly during the study period (p < 0.0001). A population crash occurred as a result of thermal stress and variability of lake elevation. In summer 2011, water temperatures peaked at 34.3°C and lake elevation declined to the lowest level recorded during the previous 18 years, which resulted in desiccation of substantial numbers of settled mussels in littoral zones. Veliger spatial distributions were associated with physicochemical stratification characteristics. Veligers were observed in the deepest oxygenated water after lake stratification, which occurred in late spring. Results of this study indicate environmental conditions can influence variability of population sizes and spatial distributions of zebra mussels along the current southern frontier of their geographic range. Although the future population size trajectory and geographic range are uncertain, increased temperatures and intermittent, extreme droughts likely will affect spatio-temporal dynamics of established populations if zebra mussels spread farther into the southern and southwestern United States.

Population size estimation of men who have sex with men through the network scale-up method in Japan.

PubMed

Ezoe, Satoshi; Morooka, Takeo; Noda, Tatsuya; Sabin, Miriam Lewis; Koike, Soichi

2012-01-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods.

75 FR 48815 - Medicaid Program and Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP); Revisions to the Medicaid...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-11

... size may be reduced by the finite population correction factor. The finite population correction is a statistical formula utilized to determine sample size where the population is considered finite rather than... program may notify us and the annual sample size will be reduced by the finite population correction...

Estimation of census and effective population sizes: the increasing usefulness of DNA-based approaches

Treesearch

Gordon Luikart; Nils Ryman; David A. Tallmon; Michael K. Schwartz; Fred W. Allendorf

2010-01-01

Population census size (NC) and effective population sizes (Ne) are two crucial parameters that influence population viability, wildlife management decisions, and conservation planning. Genetic estimators of both NC and Ne are increasingly widely used because molecular markers are increasingly available, statistical methods are improving rapidly, and genetic estimators...

Founder representation and effective population size in old versus young breeds-genetic diversity of Finnish and Nordic Spitz.

PubMed

Kumpulainen, M; Anderson, H; Svevar, T; Kangasvuo, I; Donner, J; Pohjoismäki, J

2017-10-01

Finnish Spitz is 130-year-old breed and has been highly popular in Finland throughout its history. Nordic Spitz is very similar to Finnish Spitz by origin and use, but is a relatively recent breed with much smaller population size. To see how breed age and breeding history have influenced the current population, we performed comprehensive population genetic analysis using pedigree data of 28,119 Finnish and 9,009 Nordic Spitzes combined with genomewide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data from 135 Finnish and 110 Nordic Spitzes. We found that the Finnish Spitz has undergone repeated male bottlenecks resulting in dramatic loss of genetic diversity, reflected by 20 effective founders (f a ) and mean heterozygosity (Hz) of 0.313. The realized effective population size in the breed based on pedigree analysis (N¯ec) is 168, whereas the genetic effective population size (N eg ) computed the decay of linkage disequilibrium (r 2 ) is only 57 individuals. Nordic Spitz, although once been near extinction, has not been exposed to similar repeated bottlenecks than Finnish Spitz and had f a of 27 individuals. However, due to the smaller total population size, the breed has also smaller effective population size than Finnish Spitz (N¯ec = 98 and N eg  = 49). Interestingly, the r 2 data show that the effective population size has contracted dramatically since the establishment of the breed, emphasizing the role of breed standards as constrains for the breeding population. Despite the small population size, Nordic Spitz still maintains SNP heterozygosity levels similar to mixed breed dogs (mean Hz = 0.409). Our study demonstrates that although pedigree analyses cannot provide estimates of the present diversity within a breed, the effective population sizes inferred from them correlate with the genotyping results. The genetic relationships of the northern Spitz breeds and the benefits of the open breed registry are discussed. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Nonparametric evaluation of quantitative traits in population-based association studies when the genetic model is unknown.

PubMed

Konietschke, Frank; Libiger, Ondrej; Hothorn, Ludwig A

2012-01-01

Statistical association between a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype and a quantitative trait in genome-wide association studies is usually assessed using a linear regression model, or, in the case of non-normally distributed trait values, using the Kruskal-Wallis test. While linear regression models assume an additive mode of inheritance via equi-distant genotype scores, Kruskal-Wallis test merely tests global differences in trait values associated with the three genotype groups. Both approaches thus exhibit suboptimal power when the underlying inheritance mode is dominant or recessive. Furthermore, these tests do not perform well in the common situations when only a few trait values are available in a rare genotype category (disbalance), or when the values associated with the three genotype categories exhibit unequal variance (variance heterogeneity). We propose a maximum test based on Marcus-type multiple contrast test for relative effect sizes. This test allows model-specific testing of either dominant, additive or recessive mode of inheritance, and it is robust against variance heterogeneity. We show how to obtain mode-specific simultaneous confidence intervals for the relative effect sizes to aid in interpreting the biological relevance of the results. Further, we discuss the use of a related all-pairwise comparisons contrast test with range preserving confidence intervals as an alternative to Kruskal-Wallis heterogeneity test. We applied the proposed maximum test to the Bogalusa Heart Study dataset, and gained a remarkable increase in the power to detect association, particularly for rare genotypes. Our simulation study also demonstrated that the proposed non-parametric tests control family-wise error rate in the presence of non-normality and variance heterogeneity contrary to the standard parametric approaches. We provide a publicly available R library nparcomp that can be used to estimate simultaneous confidence intervals or compatible multiplicity-adjusted p-values associated with the proposed maximum test.

Ecological and evolutionary influences on body size and shape in the Galápagos marine iguana (Amblyrhynchus cristatus).

PubMed

Chiari, Ylenia; Glaberman, Scott; Tarroso, Pedro; Caccone, Adalgisa; Claude, Julien

2016-07-01

Oceanic islands are often inhabited by endemic species that have undergone substantial morphological evolutionary change due to processes of multiple colonizations from various source populations, dispersal, and local adaptation. Galápagos marine iguanas are an example of an island endemic exhibiting high morphological diversity, including substantial body size variation among populations and sexes, but the causes and magnitude of this variation are not well understood. We obtained morphological measurements from marine iguanas throughout their distribution range. These data were combined with genetic and local environmental data from each population to investigate the effects of evolutionary history and environmental conditions on body size and shape variation and sexual dimorphism. Our results indicate that body size and shape are highly variable among populations. Sea surface temperature and island perimeter, but not evolutionary history as depicted by phylogeographic patterns in this species, explain variation in body size among populations. Conversely, evolutionary history, but not environmental parameters or island size, was found to influence variation in body shape among populations. Finally, in all populations except one, we found strong sexual dimorphism in body size and shape in which males are larger, with higher heads than females, while females have longer heads than males. Differences among populations suggest that plasticity and/or genetic adaptation may shape body size and shape variation in marine iguanas. This study will help target future investigations to address the contribution of plasticity versus genetic adaptation on size and shape variation in marine iguanas.

Hierarchical Star Formation in Turbulent Media: Evidence from Young Star Clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasha, K.; Elmegreen, B. G.; Calzetti, D.; Adamo, A.; Aloisi, A.; Bright, S. N.; Cook, D. O.; Dale, D. A.; Fumagalli, M.; Gallagher, J. S., III; Gouliermis, D. A.; Grebel, E. K.; Kahre, L.; Kim, H.; Krumholz, M. R.; Lee, J. C.; Messa, M.; Ryon, J. E.; Ubeda, L.

2017-06-01

We present an analysis of the positions and ages of young star clusters in eight local galaxies to investigate the connection between the age difference and separation of cluster pairs. We find that star clusters do not form uniformly but instead are distributed so that the age difference increases with the cluster pair separation to the 0.25-0.6 power, and that the maximum size over which star formation is physically correlated ranges from ˜200 pc to ˜1 kpc. The observed trends between age difference and separation suggest that cluster formation is hierarchical both in space and time: clusters that are close to each other are more similar in age than clusters born further apart. The temporal correlations between stellar aggregates have slopes that are consistent with predictions of turbulence acting as the primary driver of star formation. The velocity associated with the maximum size is proportional to the galaxy’s shear, suggesting that the galactic environment influences the maximum size of the star-forming structures.

On the number of New World founders: a population genetic portrait of the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Hey, Jody

2005-06-01

The founding of New World populations by Asian peoples is the focus of considerable archaeological and genetic research, and there persist important questions on when and how these events occurred. Genetic data offer great potential for the study of human population history, but there are significant challenges in discerning distinct demographic processes. A new method for the study of diverging populations was applied to questions on the founding and history of Amerind-speaking Native American populations. The model permits estimation of founding population sizes, changes in population size, time of population formation, and gene flow. Analyses of data from nine loci are consistent with the general portrait that has emerged from archaeological and other kinds of evidence. The estimated effective size of the founding population for the New World is fewer than 80 individuals, approximately 1% of the effective size of the estimated ancestral Asian population. By adding a splitting parameter to population divergence models it becomes possible to develop detailed portraits of human demographic history. Analyses of Asian and New World data support a model of a recent founding of the New World by a population of quite small effective size.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

PubMed

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Influence of the Quantity of Aortic Valve Calcium on the Agreement Between Automated 3-Dimensional Transesophageal Echocardiography and Multidetector Row Computed Tomography for Aortic Annulus Sizing.

PubMed

Podlesnikar, Tomaz; Prihadi, Edgard A; van Rosendael, Philippe J; Vollema, E Mara; van der Kley, Frank; de Weger, Arend; Ajmone Marsan, Nina; Naji, Franjo; Fras, Zlatko; Bax, Jeroen J; Delgado, Victoria

2018-01-01

Accurate aortic annulus sizing is key for selection of appropriate transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) prosthesis size. The present study compared novel automated 3-dimensional (3D) transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) software and multidetector row computed tomography (MDCT) for aortic annulus sizing and investigated the influence of the quantity of aortic valve calcium (AVC) on the selection of TAVI prosthesis size. A total of 83 patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVI were evaluated. Maximal and minimal aortic annulus diameter, perimeter, and area were measured. AVC was assessed with computed tomography. The low and high AVC burden groups were defined according to the median AVC score. Overall, 3D TEE measurements slightly underestimated the aortic annulus dimensions as compared with MDCT (mean differences between maximum, minimum diameter, perimeter, and area: -1.7 mm, 0.5 mm, -2.7 mm, and -13 mm 2 , respectively). The agreement between 3D TEE and MDCT on aortic annulus dimensions was superior among patients with low AVC burden (<3,025 arbitrary units) compared with patients with high AVC burden (≥3,025 arbitrary units). The interobserver variability was excellent for both methods. 3D TEE and MDCT led to the same prosthesis size selection in 88%, 95%, and 81% of patients in the total population, the low, and the high AVC burden group, respectively. In conclusion, the novel automated 3D TEE imaging software allows accurate and highly reproducible measurements of the aortic annulus dimensions and shows excellent agreement with MDCT to determine the TAVI prosthesis size, particularly in patients with low AVC burden. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analytical template protection performance and maximum key size given a Gaussian-modeled biometric source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelkboom, Emile J. C.; Breebaart, Jeroen; Buhan, Ileana; Veldhuis, Raymond N. J.

2010-04-01

Template protection techniques are used within biometric systems in order to protect the stored biometric template against privacy and security threats. A great portion of template protection techniques are based on extracting a key from or binding a key to a biometric sample. The achieved protection depends on the size of the key and its closeness to being random. In the literature it can be observed that there is a large variation on the reported key lengths at similar classification performance of the same template protection system, even when based on the same biometric modality and database. In this work we determine the analytical relationship between the system performance and the theoretical maximum key size given a biometric source modeled by parallel Gaussian channels. We consider the case where the source capacity is evenly distributed across all channels and the channels are independent. We also determine the effect of the parameters such as the source capacity, the number of enrolment and verification samples, and the operating point selection on the maximum key size. We show that a trade-off exists between the privacy protection of the biometric system and its convenience for its users.

Assessing the roles of population density and predation risk in the evolution of offspring size in populations of a placental fish

PubMed Central

Schrader, Matthew; Travis, Joseph

2012-01-01

Population density is an ecological variable that is hypothesized to be a major agent of selection on offspring size. In high-density populations, high levels of intraspecific competition are expected to favor the production of larger offspring. In contrast, lower levels of intraspecific competition and selection for large offspring should be weaker and more easily overridden by direct selection for increased fecundity in low-density populations. Some studies have found associations between population density and offspring size consistent with this hypothesis. However, their interpretations are often clouded by a number of issues. Here, we use data from a 10-year study of nine populations of the least killifish, Heterandria formosa, to describe the associations of offspring size with habitat type, population density, and predation risk. We found that females from spring populations generally produced larger offspring than females from ponds; however, the magnitude of this difference varied among years. Across all populations, larger offspring were associated with higher densities and lower risks of predation. Interestingly, the associations between the two ecological variables (density and predation risk) and offspring size were largely independent of one another. Our results suggest that previously described genetic differences in offspring size are due to density-dependent natural selection. PMID:22957156

Directionality theory and the evolution of body size.

PubMed

Demetrius, L

2000-12-07

Directionality theory, a dynamic theory of evolution that integrates population genetics with demography, is based on the concept of evolutionary entropy, a measure of the variability in the age of reproducing individuals in a population. The main tenets of the theory are three principles relating the response to the ecological constraints a population experiences, with trends in entropy as the population evolves under mutation and natural selection. (i) Stationary size or fluctuations around a stationary size (bounded growth): a unidirectional increase in entropy; (ii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), large population size: a unidirectional decrease in entropy; and (iii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), small population size: random, non-directional change in entropy. We invoke these principles, together with an allometric relationship between entropy, and the morphometric variable body size, to provide evolutionary explanations of three empirical patterns pertaining to trends in body size, namely (i) Cope's rule, the tendency towards size increase within phyletic lineages; (ii) the island rule, which pertains to changes in body size that occur as species migrate from mainland populations to colonize island habitats; and (iii) Bergmann's rule, the tendency towards size increase with increasing latitude. The observation that these ecotypic patterns can be explained in terms of the directionality principles for entropy underscores the significance of evolutionary entropy as a unifying concept in forging a link between micro-evolution, the dynamics of gene frequency change, and macro-evolution, dynamic changes in morphometric variables.

Forecasting the viability of sea turtle eggs in a warming world.

PubMed

Pike, David A

2014-01-01

Animals living in tropical regions may be at increased risk from climate change because current temperatures at these locations already approach critical physiological thresholds. Relatively small temperature increases could cause animals to exceed these thresholds more often, resulting in substantial fitness costs or even death. Oviparous species could be especially vulnerable because the maximum thermal tolerances of incubating embryos is often lower than adult counterparts, and in many species mothers abandon the eggs after oviposition, rendering them immobile and thus unable to avoid extreme temperatures. As a consequence, the effects of climate change might become evident earlier and be more devastating for hatchling production in the tropics. Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) have the widest nesting range of any living reptile, spanning temperate to tropical latitudes in both hemispheres. Currently, loggerhead sea turtle populations in the tropics produce nearly 30% fewer hatchlings per nest than temperate populations. Strong correlations between empirical hatching success and habitat quality allowed global predictions of the spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on this fitness trait. Under climate change, many sea turtle populations nesting in tropical environments are predicted to experience severe reductions in hatchling production, whereas hatching success in many temperate populations could remain unchanged or even increase with rising temperatures. Some populations could show very complex responses to climate change, with higher relative hatchling production as temperatures begin to increase, followed by declines as critical physiological thresholds are exceeded more frequently. Predicting when, where, and how climate change could impact the reproductive output of local populations is crucial for anticipating how a warming world will influence population size, growth, and stability.

Genetic structure, nestmate recognition and behaviour of two cryptic species of the invasive big-headed ant Pheidole megacephala.

PubMed

Fournier, Denis; Tindo, Maurice; Kenne, Martin; Mbenoun Masse, Paul Serge; Van Bossche, Vanessa; De Coninck, Eliane; Aron, Serge

2012-01-01

Biological invasions are recognized as a major cause of biodiversity decline and have considerable impact on the economy and human health. The African big-headed ant Pheidole megacephala is considered one of the world's most harmful invasive species. To better understand its ecological and demographic features, we combined behavioural (aggression tests), chemical (quantitative and qualitative analyses of cuticular lipids) and genetic (mitochondrial divergence and polymorphism of DNA microsatellite markers) data obtained for eight populations in Cameroon. Molecular data revealed two cryptic species of P. megacephala, one inhabiting urban areas and the other rainforests. Urban populations belong to the same phylogenetic group than those introduced in Australia and in other parts of the world. Behavioural analyses show that the eight populations sampled make up four mutually aggressive supercolonies. The maximum distance between nests from the same supercolony was 49 km and the closest distance between two nests belonging to two different supercolonies was 46 m. The genetic data and chemical analyses confirmed the behavioural tests as all of the nests were correctly assigned to their supercolony. Genetic diversity appears significantly greater in Africa than in introduced populations in Australia; by contrast, urban and Australian populations are characterized by a higher chemical diversity than rainforest ones. Overall, our study shows that populations of P. megacephala in Cameroon adopt a unicolonial social structure, like invasive populations in Australia. However, the size of the supercolonies appears several orders of magnitude smaller in Africa. This implies competition between African supercolonies and explains why they persist over evolutionary time scales.

Weeds, as ancillary hosts, pose disproportionate risk for virulent pathogen transfer to crops.

PubMed

Linde, Celeste C; Smith, Leon M; Peakall, Rod

2016-05-12

The outcome of the arms race between hosts and pathogens depends heavily on the interactions between their genetic diversity, population size and transmission ability. Theory predicts that genetically diverse hosts will select for higher virulence and more diverse pathogens than hosts with low genetic diversity. Cultivated hosts typically have lower genetic diversity and thus small effective population sizes, but can potentially harbour large pathogen population sizes. On the other hand, hosts, such as weeds, which are genetically more diverse and thus have larger effective population sizes, usually harbour smaller pathogen population sizes. Large pathogen population sizes may lead to more opportunities for mutation and hence more diverse pathogens. Here we test the predictions that pathogen neutral genetic diversity will increase with large pathogen population sizes and host diversity, whereas diversity under selection will increase with host diversity. We assessed and compared the diversity of a fungal pathogen, Rhynchosporium commune, on weedy barley grass (which have a large effective population size) and cultivated barley (low genetic diversity) using microsatellites, effector locus nip1 diversity and pathogen aggressiveness in order to assess the importance of weeds in the evolution of the neutral and selected diversity of pathogens. The findings indicated that the large barley acreage and low host diversity maintains higher pathogen neutral genetic diversity and lower linkage disequilibrium, while the weed maintains more pathotypes and higher virulence diversity at nip1. Strong evidence for more pathogen migration from barley grass to barley suggests transmission of virulence from barley grass to barley is common. Pathogen census population size is a better predictor for neutral genetic diversity than host diversity. Despite maintaining a smaller pathogen census population size, barley grass acts as an important ancillary host to R. commune, harbouring highly virulent pathogen types capable of transmission to barley. Management of disease on crops must therefore include management of weedy ancillary hosts, which may harbour disproportionate supplies of virulent pathogen strains.

Regulation of water flux through tropical forest canopy trees: do universal rules apply?

PubMed

Meinzer, F C; Goldstein, G; Andrade, J L

2001-01-01

Tropical moist forests are notable for their richness in tree species. The presence of such a diverse tree flora presents potential problems for scaling up estimates of water use from individual trees to entire stands and for drawing generalizations about physiological regulation of water use in tropical trees. We measured sapwood area or sap flow, or both, in 27 co-occurring canopy species in a Panamanian forest to determine the extent to which relationships between tree size, sapwood area and sap flow were species-specific, or whether they were constrained by universal functional relationships between tree size, conducting xylem area, and water use. For the 24 species in which active xylem area was estimated over a range of size classes, diameter at breast height (DBH) accounted for 98% of the variation in sapwood area and 67% of the variation in sapwood depth when data for all species were combined. The DBH alone also accounted for > or = 90% of the variation in both maximum and total daily sap flux density in the outermost 2 cm of sapwood for all species taken together. Maximum sap flux density measured near the base of the tree occurred at about 1,400 h in the largest trees and 1,130 h in the smallest trees studied, and DBH accounted for 93% of the variation in the time of day at which maximum sap flow occurred. The shared relationship between tree size and time of maximum sap flow at the base of the tree suggests that a common relationship between diurnal stem water storage capacity and tree size existed. These results are consistent with a recent hypothesis that allometric scaling of plant vascular systems, and therefore water use, is universal.

Probabilistic Estimation of Critical Flaw Sizes in the Primary Structure Welds of the Ares I-X Launch Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Hoge, Peter A.; Patel, B. M.; Nagpal, Vinod K.

2009-01-01

The primary structure of the Ares I-X Upper Stage Simulator (USS) launch vehicle is constructed of welded mild steel plates. There is some concern over the possibility of structural failure due to welding flaws. It was considered critical to quantify the impact of uncertainties in residual stress, material porosity, applied loads, and material and crack growth properties on the reliability of the welds during its pre-flight and flight. A criterion--an existing maximum size crack at the weld toe must be smaller than the maximum allowable flaw size--was established to estimate the reliability of the welds. A spectrum of maximum allowable flaw sizes was developed for different possible combinations of all of the above listed variables by performing probabilistic crack growth analyses using the ANSYS finite element analysis code in conjunction with the NASGRO crack growth code. Two alternative methods were used to account for residual stresses: (1) The mean residual stress was assumed to be 41 ksi and a limit was set on the net section flow stress during crack propagation. The critical flaw size was determined by parametrically increasing the initial flaw size and detecting if this limit was exceeded during four complete flight cycles, and (2) The mean residual stress was assumed to be 49.6 ksi (the parent material s yield strength) and the net section flow stress limit was ignored. The critical flaw size was determined by parametrically increasing the initial flaw size and detecting if catastrophic crack growth occurred during four complete flight cycles. Both surface-crack models and through-crack models were utilized to characterize cracks in the weld toe.

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Whitebark Pine, Population Density, and Home-Range Size of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size. PMID:24520354