Future projection of design storms using a GCM-informed weather generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KIm, T. W.; Wi, S.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Valdés, J. B.

2017-12-01

The rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are one of the most common tools used to provide planners with a description of the frequency of extreme rainfall events of various intensities and durations. Therefore deriving appropriate IDF estimates is important to avoid malfunctions of water structures that cause huge damage. Evaluating IDF estimates in the context of climate change has become more important because projections from climate models suggest that the frequency of intense rainfall events will increase in the future due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the Bartlett-Lewis (BL) stochastic rainfall model is employed to generate annual maximum series of various sub-daily durations for test basins of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) project, and to derive the IDF curves in the context of climate changes projected by the North American Regional Climate Change (NARCCAP) models. From our results, it has been found that the observed annual rainfall maximum series is reasonably represented by the synthetic annual maximum series generated by the BL model. The observed data is perturbed by change factors to incorporate the NARCCAP climate change scenarios into the IDF estimates. The future IDF curves show a significant difference from the historical IDF curves calculated for the period 1968-2000. Overall, the projected IDF curves show an increasing trend over time. The impacts of changes in extreme rainfall on the hydrologic response of the MOPEX basins are also explored. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS-NH-2015-79] through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.

On the asymmetric distribution of shear-relative typhoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Si; Zhai, Shunan; Li, Tim; Chen, Zhifan

2018-02-01

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 precipitation, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final analysis and the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo best-track data during 2000-2015 are used to compare spatial rainfall distribution associated with Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) with different vertical wind shear directions and investigate possible mechanisms. Results show that the maximum TC rainfall are all located in the downshear left quadrant regardless of shear direction, and TCs with easterly shear have greater magnitudes of rainfall than those with westerly shear, consistent with previous studies. Rainfall amount of a TC is related to its relative position and proximity from the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the intensity of water vapor transport, and low-level jet is favorable for water vapor transport. The maximum of vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (MFC) are located on the downshear side regardless of shear direction, and the contribution of wind convergence to the total MFC is far larger than that of moisture advection. The cyclonic displacement of the maximum rainfall relative to the maximum MFC is possibly due to advection of hydrometeors by low- and middle-level cyclonic circulation of TCs. The relationship between TC rainfall and the WPSH through water vapor transport and vertical wind shear implies that TC rainfall may be highly predictable given the high predictability of the WPSH.

Comparison of rainfall and stemflow peak intensities and infiltration patterns for a mature coastal forest in British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Meerveld, Ilja; Spencer, Sheena

2017-04-01

Most studies on stemflow have focused on the amount of stemflow in different forests or for different rainfall events. So far, few studies have looked at how stemflow intensity varies during rainfall events and how peak stemflow intensities compare to peak rainfall intensities. High stemflow intensities at the base of the tree, where roots and other preferential flow pathways are prevalent, may lead to faster and deeper infiltration of stemflow than rainfall and thus affect soil moisture dynamics and potentially also subsurface stormflow generation. We measured stemflow intensities for three Western hemlock, two Western red cedar, two Douglas-fir and one Birch tree in a mature coniferous forest in coastal British Columbia to determine how stemflow intensities were related to rainfall intensity. We sprayed a blue dye tracer on two Western hemlock trees (29 and 52 cm diameter at breast height (DBH)) to determine how stemflow water flows through the soil and to what depth it infiltrates. We also applied the blue dye tracer to an area between the trees to compare infiltration of stemflow with rainfall. Stemflow increased linearly with event total precipitation for all trees. The larger trees almost exclusively had funneling ratios (i.e. the volume of stemflow per unit basal area divided by the rainfall) smaller than one, regardless of species and event size. The funneling ratios for the small trees were generally larger for larger events (up to a funneling ratio of 20) but there was considerable scatter in this relation. Trees with a DBH <35 cm, which represent 24% of the total basal area of the study site, contributed 72% of the estimated total stemflow amount. Stemflow intensities (volume of stemflow per unit basal area per hour) often increased in a stepwise manner. When there were two precipitation bursts, stemflow intensity was usually highest during the second precipitation burst. However, when there were several hours of very low rainfall intensity between consecutive precipitation bursts, stemflow intensity was lower during the first burst after the break in rainfall. Peak stemflow intensities were higher than the maximum precipitation intensity. The blue dye that was applied to the tree stems was found more frequently at depth than near the soil surface. Stemflow flowed primarily through the 10 cm organic rich upper layer of the soil around the tree before flowing between or along live and dead roots, inside dead roots, around rocks and boulders deeper into the soil. Lateral flow was observed above a dense clay layer but where roots were able to penetrate the clay layer, the infiltrating water flowed deeper into the soil and (almost) reached the soil-bedrock interface. Stemflow appeared to infiltrate deeper (122 cm) than rainfall (85 cm) but this difference was in part due to variations in maximum soil depth. These results suggest that even though stemflow is only a minor component of the water balance, the double funnelling of stemflow may significantly affect soil moisture, recharge and runoff generation.

Regional extreme rainfalls observed globally with 17 years of the Tropical Precipitation Measurement Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takayabu, Yukari; Hamada, Atsushi; Mori, Yuki; Murayama, Yuki; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward

2015-04-01

While extreme rainfall has a huge impact upon human society, the characteristics of the extreme precipitation vary from region to region. Seventeen years of three dimensional precipitation measurements from the space-borne precipitation radar equipped with the Tropical Precipitation Measurement Mission satellite enabled us to describe the characteristics of regional extreme precipitation globally. Extreme rainfall statistics are based on rainfall events defined as a set of contiguous PR rainy pixels. Regional extreme rainfall events are defined as those in which maximum near-surface rainfall rates are higher than the corresponding 99.9th percentile in each 2.5degree x2.5degree horizontal resolution grid. First, regional extreme rainfall is characterized in terms of its intensity and event size. Regions of ''intense and extensive'' extreme rainfall are found mainly over oceans near coastal areas and are likely associated with tropical cyclones and convective systems associated with the establishment of monsoons. Regions of ''intense but less extensive'' extreme rainfall are distributed widely over land and maritime continents, probably related to afternoon showers and mesoscale convective systems. Regions of ''extensive but less intense'' extreme rainfall are found almost exclusively over oceans, likely associated with well-organized mesoscale convective systems and extratropical cyclones. Secondly, regional extremes in terms of surface rainfall intensity and those in terms of convection height are compared. Conventionally, extremely tall convection is considered to contribute the largest to the intense rainfall. Comparing probability density functions (PDFs) of 99th percentiles in terms of the near surface rainfall intensity in each regional grid and those in terms of the 40dBZ echo top heights, it is found that heaviest precipitation in the region is not associated with tallest systems, but rather with systems with moderate heights. Interestingly, this separation of extremely heavy precipitation from extremely tall convection is found to be quite universal, irrespective of regions. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Thus it is demonstrated that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection. Third, the size effect of rainfall events on the precipitation intensity is investigated. Comparisons of normalized PDFs of foot-print size rainfall intensity for different sizes of rainfall events show that footprint-scale extreme rainfall becomes stronger as the rainfall events get larger. At the same time, stratiform ratio in area as well as in rainfall amount increases with the size, confirming larger sized features are more organized systems. After all, it is statistically shown that organization of precipitation not only brings about an increase in extreme volumetric rainfall but also an increase in probability of the satellite footprint scale extreme rainfall.

The disparity between extreme rainfall events and rare floods - with emphasis on the semi-arid American West

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterkamp, W. R.; Friedman, J. M.

2000-10-01

Research beginning 40 years ago suggested that semi-arid lands of the USA have higher unit discharges for a given recurrence interval than occur in other areas. Convincing documentation and arguments for this suspicion, however, were not presented. Thus, records of measured rainfall intensities for specified durations and recurrence intervals, and theoretical depths of probable maximum precipitation for specified recurrence intervals and areal scales are considered here for comparing extreme rainfalls of semi-arid areas with those of other climatic areas. Runoff from semi-arid lands, as peaks of rare floods, is compared with that of other areas using various published records. Relative to humid areas, semi-arid parts of the conterminous USA have lower 100-year, 6-h rainfall intensities and smaller depths of 100-year probable maximum precipitation for 26-km2 areas. Nonetheless, maximum flood peaks, flash-flood potentials, and runoff potentials are generally larger in semi-arid areas than in more humid parts of the nation. Causes of this disparity between rainfall and runoff appear to be results of soil and vegetation that in humid areas absorb and intercept rainfall and attenuate runoff, but in semi-arid areas limit infiltration and enhance runoff from bare, crusted surfaces. These differences in soil and vegetation conditions are indicated by the relatively high curve numbers and drainage densities that are typical of semi-arid areas. Owing to soil and vegetation conditions, rare floods in semi-arid areas are more likely to cause landform change than are floods of similar magnitude elsewhere.

The disparity between extreme rainfall events and rare floods - with emphasis on the semi-arid American West

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osterkamp, W.R.; Friedman, J.M.

2000-01-01

Research beginning 40 years ago suggested that semi-arid lands of the USA have higher unit discharges for a given recurrence interval than occur in other areas. Convincing documentation and arguments for this suspicion, however, were not presented. Thus, records of measured rainfall intensities for specified durations and recurrence intervals, and theoretical depths of probable maximum precipitation for specified recurrence intervals and areal scales are considered here for comparing extreme rainfalls of semi-arid areas with those of other climatic areas. Runoff from semi-arid lands, as peaks of rare floods, is compared with that of other areas using various published records. Relative to humid areas, semi-arid parts of the conterminous USA have lower 100-year, 6-h rainfall intensities and smaller depths of 100-year probable maximum precipitation for 26-km2 areas. Nonetheless, maximum flood peaks, flash-flood potentials, and runoff potentials are generally larger in semi-arid areas than in more humid parts of the nation. Causes of this disparity between rainfall and runoff appear to be results of soil and vegetation that in humid areas absorb and intercept rainfall and attenuate runoff, but in semi-arid areas limit infiltration and enhance runoff from bare, crusted surfaces. These differences in soil and vegetation conditions are indicated by the relatively high curve numbers and drainage densities that are typical of semi-arid areas. Owing to soil and vegetation conditions, rare floods in semi-arid areas are more likely to cause landform change than are floods of similar magnitude elsewhere.

The evaluation of rainfall influence on combined sewer overflows characteristics: the Berlin case study.

PubMed

Sandoval, S; Torres, A; Pawlowsky-Reusing, E; Riechel, M; Caradot, N

2013-01-01

The present study aims to explore the relationship between rainfall variables and water quality/quantity characteristics of combined sewer overflows (CSOs), by the use of multivariate statistical methods and online measurements at a principal CSO outlet in Berlin (Germany). Canonical correlation results showed that the maximum and average rainfall intensities are the most influential variables to describe CSO water quantity and pollutant loads whereas the duration of the rainfall event and the rain depth seem to be the most influential variables to describe CSO pollutant concentrations. The analysis of partial least squares (PLS) regression models confirms the findings of the canonical correlation and highlights three main influences of rainfall on CSO characteristics: (i) CSO water quantity characteristics are mainly influenced by the maximal rainfall intensities, (ii) CSO pollutant concentrations were found to be mostly associated with duration of the rainfall and (iii) pollutant loads seemed to be principally influenced by dry weather duration before the rainfall event. The prediction quality of PLS models is rather low (R² < 0.6) but results can be useful to explore qualitatively the influence of rainfall on CSO characteristics.

Case study: Rainfall partitioning across a natural-to-urban forest gradient during an extreme rain event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akin, B. H.; Van Stan, J. T., II; Cote, J. F.; Jarvis, M. T.; Underwood, J.; Friesen, J.; Hildebrandt, A.; Maldonado, G.

2017-12-01

Trees' partitioning of rainfall is an important first process along the rainfall-to-runoff pathway that has economically significant influences on urban stormwater management. However, important knowledge gaps exist regarding (1) its role during extreme storms and (2) how this role changes as forest structure is altered by urbanization. Little research has been conducted on canopy rainfall partitioning during large, intense storms, likely because canopy water storage is rapidly overwhelmed (i.e., 1-3 mm) by short duration events exceeding, for example, 80 mm of rainfall. However, canopy structure controls more than just storage; it also affects the time for rain to drain to the surface (becoming throughfall) and the micrometeorological conditions that drive wet canopy evaporation. In fact, observations from an example extreme ( 100 mm with maximum 5-minute intensities exceeding 55 mm/h) storm across a urban-to-natural gradient in pine forests in southeast Georgia (USA), show that storm intensities were differentially dampened by 33% (tree row), 28% (forest fragment), and 17% (natural forests). In addition, maximum wet canopy evaporation rates were higher for the exposed tree row (0.18 mm/h) than for the partially-enclosed fragment canopy (0.14 mm/h) and the closed canopy natural forest site (0.11). This resulted in interception percentages decreasing from urban-to-natural stand structures (25% to 16%). A synoptic analysis of the extreme storm in this case study also shows that the mesoscale meteorological conditions that developed the heavy rainfall is expected to occur more often with projected climate changes.

Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones. Part I: contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flaounas, Emmanouil; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Gray, Suzanne L.; Rysman, Jean-François; Claud, Chantal

2018-04-01

In this study, we provide an insight to the role of deep convection (DC) and the warm conveyor belt (WCB) as leading processes to Mediterranean cyclones' heavy rainfall. To this end, we use reanalysis data, lighting and satellite observations to quantify the relative contribution of DC and the WCB to cyclone rainfall, as well as to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of these processes with respect to the cyclone centre and life cycle. Results for the period 2005-2015 show that the relationship between cyclone rainfall and intensity has high variability and demonstrate that even intense cyclones may produce low rainfall amounts. However, when considering rainfall averages for cyclone intensity bins, a linear relationship was found. We focus on the 500 most intense tracked cyclones (responsible for about 40-50% of the total 11-year Mediterranean rainfall) and distinguish between the ones producing high and low rainfall amounts. DC and the WCB are found to be the main cause of rainfall for the former (producing up to 70% of cyclone rainfall), while, for the latter, DC and the WCB play a secondary role (producing up to 50% of rainfall). Further analysis showed that rainfall due to DC tends to occur close to the cyclones' centre and to their eastern sides, while the WCBs tend to produce rainfall towards the northeast. In fact, about 30% of rainfall produced by DC overlaps with rainfall produced by WCBs but this represents only about 8% of rainfall produced by WCBs. This suggests that a considerable percentage of DC is associated with embedded convection in WCBs. Finally, DC was found to be able to produce higher rain rates than WCBs, exceeding 50 mm in 3-h accumulated rainfall compared to a maximum of the order of 40 mm for WCBs. Our results demonstrate in a climatological framework the relationship between cyclone intensity and processes that lead to heavy rainfall, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the Mediterranean. Therefore, we set perspectives for a deeper analysis of the favourable atmospheric conditions that yield high impact weather.

Rain rate intensity model for communication link design across the Indian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilaru, Aravind; Kotamraju, Sarat K.; Avlonitis, Nicholas; Sri Kavya, K. Ch.

2016-07-01

A study on rain statistical parameters such as one minute rain intensity, possible number of minute occurrences with respective percentage of time in a year has been evaluated for the purpose of communication link design at Ka, Q, V bands as well as at Free-Space Optical communication links (FSO). To understand possible outage period of a communication links due to rainfall and to investigate rainfall pattern, Automatic Weather Station (AWS) rainfall data is analysed due its ample presence across India. The climates of the examined AWS regions vary from desert to cold climate, heavy rainfall to variable rainfall regions, cyclone effective regions, mountain and coastal regions. In this way a complete and unbiased picture of the rainfall statistics for Indian region is evaluated. The analysed AWS data gives insight into yearly accumulated rainfall, maximum hourly accumulated rainfall, mean hourly accumulated rainfall, number of rainy days and number of rainy hours from 668 AWS locations. Using probability density function the one minute rainfall measurements at KL University is integrated with AWS measurements for estimating number of rain occurrences in terms of one minute rain intensity for annual rainfall accumulated between 100 mm and 5000 mm to give an insight into possible one minute accumulation pattern in an hour for comprehensive analysis of rainfall influence on a communication link for design engineers. So that low availability communications links at higher frequencies can be transformed into a reliable and economically feasible communication links for implementing High Throughput Services (HTS).

Variability in rainfall at monitoring stations and derivation of a long-term rainfall intensity record in the Grand Canyon Region, Arizona, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Caster, Joshua J.; Sankey, Joel B.

2016-04-11

In this study, we examine rainfall datasets of varying temporal length, resolution, and spatial distribution to characterize rainfall depth, intensity, and seasonality for monitoring stations along the Colorado River within Marble and Grand Canyons. We identify maximum separation distances between stations at which rainfall measurements might be most useful for inferring rainfall characteristics at other locations. We demonstrate a method for applying relations between daily rainfall depth and intensity, from short-term high-resolution data to lower-resolution longer-term data, to synthesize a long-term record of daily rainfall intensity from 1950–2012. We consider the implications of our spatio-temporal characterization of rainfall for understanding local landscape change in sedimentary deposits and archaeological sites, and for better characterizing past and present rainfall and its potential role in overland flow erosion within the canyons. We find that rainfall measured at stations within the river corridor is spatially correlated at separation distances of tens of kilometers, and is not correlated at the large elevation differences that separate stations along the Colorado River from stations above the canyon rim. These results provide guidance for reasonable separation distances at which rainfall measurements at stations within the Grand Canyon region might be used to infer rainfall at other nearby locations along the river. Like other rugged landscapes, spatial variability between rainfall measured at monitoring stations appears to be influenced by canyon and rim physiography and elevation, with preliminary results suggesting the highest elevation landform in the region, the Kaibab Plateau, may function as an important orographic influence. Stations at specific locations within the canyons and along the river, such as in southern (lower) Marble Canyon and eastern (upper) Grand Canyon, appear to have strong potential to receive high-intensity rainfall that can generate runoff which may erode alluvium. The characterization of past and present rainfall variability in this study will be useful for future studies that evaluate more spatially continuous datasets in order to better understand the rainfall dynamics within this, and potentially other, deep canyons.

Hydrological control of large hurricane-induced lahars: evidence from rainfall-runoff modeling, seismic and video monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capra, Lucia; Coviello, Velio; Borselli, Lorenzo; Márquez-Ramírez, Víctor-Hugo; Arámbula-Mendoza, Raul

2018-03-01

The Volcán de Colima, one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico, is commonly affected by tropical rains related to hurricanes that form over the Pacific Ocean. In 2011, 2013 and 2015 hurricanes Jova, Manuel and Patricia, respectively, triggered tropical storms that deposited up to 400 mm of rain in 36 h, with maximum intensities of 50 mm h -1. The effects were devastating, with the formation of multiple lahars along La Lumbre and Montegrande ravines, which are the most active channels in sediment delivery on the south-southwest flank of the volcano. Deep erosion along the river channels and several marginal landslides were observed, and the arrival of block-rich flow fronts resulted in damages to bridges and paved roads in the distal reaches of the ravines. The temporal sequence of these flow events is reconstructed and analyzed using monitoring data (including video images, seismic records and rainfall data) with respect to the rainfall characteristics and the hydrologic response of the watersheds based on rainfall-runoff numerical simulation. For the studied events, lahars occurred 5-6 h after the onset of rainfall, lasted several hours and were characterized by several pulses with block-rich fronts and a maximum flow discharge of 900 m3 s -1. Rainfall-runoff simulations were performer using the SCS-curve number and the Green-Ampt infiltration models, providing a similar result in the detection of simulated maximum watershed peaks discharge. Results show different behavior for the arrival times of the first lahar pulses that correlate with the simulated catchment's peak discharge for La Lumbre ravine and with the peaks in rainfall intensity for Montegrande ravine. This different behavior is related to the area and shape of the two watersheds. Nevertheless, in all analyzed cases, the largest lahar pulse always corresponds with the last one and correlates with the simulated maximum peak discharge of these catchments. Data presented here show that flow pulses within a lahar are not randomly distributed in time, and they can be correlated with rainfall peak intensity and/or watershed discharge, depending on the watershed area and shape. This outcome has important implications for hazard assessment during extreme hydro-meteorological events, as it could help in providing real-time alerts. A theoretical rainfall distribution curve was designed for Volcán de Colima based on the rainfall and time distribution of hurricanes Manuel and Patricia. This can be used to run simulations using weather forecasts prior to the actual event, in order to estimate the arrival time of main lahar pulses, usually characterized by block-rich fronts, which are responsible for most of the damage to infrastructure and loss of goods and lives.

New Indices to Evaluate the Effects of Rainfall Pattern on Runoff and Soil Loss under Different Vegetation in the Loess Plateau, China.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J.; Gao, G.; Jiao, L.; Fu, B.

2016-12-01

The rainfall amount, density and duration were commonly used to evaluate the influences of rainfall on runoff and soil loss, which could completely express the information of rainfall, especially rainfall pattern. In this study, the peak zone of rainfall intensity (PZRI) and intra-event intermittency of rainfall (IERI) were developed to detect the effects of rainfall pattern on runoff and soil loss under different land cover types in the Loess Plateau of China. The runoff and soil loss of three vegetation types (Prunus armeniaca, Artemisia sacrorum and Andropogon yunnanensis) and bare land were measured from 2012 to 2015. The PZRI was significantly correlated with average rainfall intensity (I) and maximum rainfall intensity in 30 minutes (I30). The runoff coefficient (RC) and soil loss were not significantly correlated with I, but they were significantly affected by I30 and PZRI (p<0.05). The greater value of IERI indicated more proportion of PZRI in rainfall duration, and there was positive correlation between IERI and RC. It was showed that the RC was most correlated with PZRI, whereas the correlation between soil loss and I30 was most significant under all cover types. This indicated that the changes of rainfall pattern had more effects on runoff than soil loss. In addition, the position of PZRI in the rainfall profile had an important role on runoff and soil loss. RC and soil loss under bare land was most sensitive to the occurrence period of rainfall peak, followed by Prunus armeniaca, Artemisia sacrorum and Andropogon yunnanensis.

Global intensification in observed short-duration rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Guerreiro, S.; Blenkinsop, S.; Barbero, R.; Westra, S.; Lenderink, G.; Li, X.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with a warming climate and this is currently driving extensive research. While daily rainfall extremes are widely thought to have increased globally in recent decades, changes in rainfall extremes on shorter timescales, often associated with flash flooding, have not been documented at global scale due to surface observational limitations and the lack of a global sub-daily rainfall database. The access to and use of such data remains a challenge. For the first time, we have synthesized across multiple data sources providing gauge-based sub-daily rainfall observations across the globe over the last 6 decades. This forms part of the INTENSE project (part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges (GEWEX) Hydroclimate Project cross-cut on sub-daily rainfall). A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community. Because of the physical connection between global warming and the moisture budget, we also sought to infer long-term changes in sub-daily rainfall extremes contingent on global mean temperature. Whereas the potential influence of global warming is uncertain at regional scales, where natural variability dominates, aggregating surface stations across parts of the world may increase the global warming-induced signal. Changes in terms of annual maximum rainfall across various resolutions ranging from 1-h to 24-h are presented and discussed.

Estimation of typhoon rainfall in GaoPing River: A Multivariate Maximum Entropy Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei-Jui, Wu; Hwa-Lung, Yu

2016-04-01

The heavy rainfall from typhoons is the main factor of the natural disaster in Taiwan, which causes the significant loss of human lives and properties. Statistically average 3.5 typhoons invade Taiwan every year, and the serious typhoon, Morakot in 2009, impacted Taiwan in recorded history. Because the duration, path and intensity of typhoon, also affect the temporal and spatial rainfall type in specific region , finding the characteristics of the typhoon rainfall type is advantageous when we try to estimate the quantity of rainfall. This study developed a rainfall prediction model and can be divided three parts. First, using the EEOF(extended empirical orthogonal function) to classify the typhoon events, and decompose the standard rainfall type of all stations of each typhoon event into the EOF and PC(principal component). So we can classify the typhoon events which vary similarly in temporally and spatially as the similar typhoon types. Next, according to the classification above, we construct the PDF(probability density function) in different space and time by means of using the multivariate maximum entropy from the first to forth moment statistically. Therefore, we can get the probability of each stations of each time. Final we use the BME(Bayesian Maximum Entropy method) to construct the typhoon rainfall prediction model , and to estimate the rainfall for the case of GaoPing river which located in south of Taiwan.This study could be useful for typhoon rainfall predictions in future and suitable to government for the typhoon disaster prevention .

Flood of September 12-13, 1982 in Gibson, Carroll, and Madison Counties, western Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, Clarence H.; Gamble, Charles R.; Bingham, Roy H.

1986-01-01

Intense rainfall on September 12-13, 1982, caused severe local flooding along many streams in Gibson County in western Tennessee. The rainfall resulted from remnants of Hurricane Chris combining with a cool front moving across the western half of the State. A maximum 1-hr rainfall intensity of 3.3 in was recorded at Humboldt. Peak discharge exceeded the 100-yr flood on many small streams. The floods caused three deaths and about 15.3 million dollars damage to crops, roads and bridges, businesses, and residential areas. Long-time residents of Gibson County reported that stream stages have not been as high since at least 1922. (USGS)

Linking runoff response to burn severity after a wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, J.A.; Martin, D.A.; Haire, S.L.; Kinner, D.A.

2008-01-01

Extreme floods often follow wildfire in mountainous watersheds. However, a quantitative relation between the runoff response and burn severity at the watershed scale has not been established. Runoff response was measured as the runoff coefficient C, which is equal to the peak discharge per unit drainage area divided by the average maximum 30 min rainfall intensity during each rain storm. The magnitude of the bum severity was expressed as the change in the normalized burn ratio. A new burn severity variable, hydraulic functional connectivity ?? was developed and incorporates both the magnitude of the burn severity and the spatial sequence of the bum severity along hillslope flow paths. The runoff response and the burn severity were measured in seven subwatersheds (0.24 to 0.85 km2) in the upper part of Rendija Canyon burned by the 2000 Cerro Grande Fire Dear Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA. A rainfall-discharge relation was determined for four of the subwatersheds with nearly the same bum severity. The peak discharge per unit drainage area Qupeak was a linear function of the maximum 30 min rainfall intensity I30. This function predicted a rainfall intensity threshold of 8.5 mm h-1 below which no runoff was generated. The runoff coefficient C = Qupeak/I30 was a linear function of the mean hydraulic functional connectivity of the subwatersheds. Moreover, the variability of the mean hydraulic functional connectivity was related to the variability of the mean runoff coefficient, and this relation provides physical insight into why the runoff response from the same subwatershed can vary for different rainstorms with the same rainfall intensity. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A new index quantifying the precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busuioc, Aristita; Baciu, Madalina; Stoica, Cerasela

2015-04-01

Events of extreme precipitation have a great impact on society. They are associated with flooding, erosion and landslides.Various indices have been proposed to quantify these extreme events and they are mainly related to daily precipitation amount, which are usually available for long periods in many places over the world. The climate signal related to changes in the characteristics of precipitation extremes is different over various regions and it is dependent on the season and the index used to quantify the precipitation extremes. The climate model simulations and empirical evidence suggest that warmer climates, due to increased water vapour, lead to more intense precipitation events, even when the total annual precipitation is slightly reduced. It was suggested that there is a shift in the nature of precipitation events towards more intense and less frequent rains and increases in heavy rains are expected to occur in most places, even when the mean precipitation is not increasing. This conclusion was also proved for the Romanian territory in a recent study, showing a significant increasing trend of the rain shower frequency in the warm season over the entire country, despite no significant changes in the seasonal amount and the daily extremes. The shower events counted in that paper refer to all convective rains, including torrential ones giving high rainfall amount in very short time. The problem is to find an appropriate index to quantify such events in terms of their highest intensity in order to extract the maximum climate signal. In the present paper, a new index is proposed to quantify the maximum precipitation intensity in an extreme precipitation event, which could be directly related to the torrential rain intensity. This index is tested at nine Romanian stations (representing various physical-geographical conditions) and it is based on the continuous rainfall records derived from the graphical registrations (pluviograms) available at National Meteorological Administration in Romania. These types of records contain the rainfall intensity (mm/minute) over various intervals for which it remains constant. The maximum intensity for each continuous rain over the May-August interval has been calculated for each year. The corresponding time series over the 1951-2008 period have been analysed in terms of their long term trends and shifts in the mean; the results have been compared to those resulted from other rainfall indices based on daily and hourly data, computed over the same interval such as: total rainfall amount, maximum daily amount, contribution of total hourly amounts exceeding 10mm/day, contribution of daily amounts exceeding the 90th percentile, the 90th, 99th and 99.9th percentiles of 1-hour data . The results show that the proposed index exhibit a coherent and stronger climate signal (significant increase) for all analysed stations compared to the other indices associated to precipitation extremes, which show either no significant change or weaker signal. This finding shows that the proposed index is most appropriate to quantify the climate change signal of the precipitation extremes. We consider that this index is more naturally connected to the maximum intensity of a real rainfall event. The results presented is this study were funded by the Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI) through the research project CLIMHYDEX, "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania", code PNII-ID-2011-2-0073 (http://climhydex.meteoromania.ro)

Rainfall control of debris-flow triggering in the Réal Torrent, Southern French Prealps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bel, Coraline; Liébault, Frédéric; Navratil, Oldrich; Eckert, Nicolas; Bellot, Hervé; Fontaine, Firmin; Laigle, Dominique

2017-08-01

This paper investigates the occurrence of debris flow due to rainfall forcing in the Réal Torrent, a very active debris flow-prone catchment in the Southern French Prealps. The study is supported by a 4-year record of flow responses and rainfall events, from three high-frequency monitoring stations equipped with geophones, flow stage sensors, digital cameras, and rain gauges measuring rainfall at 5-min intervals. The classic method of rainfall intensity-duration (ID) threshold was used, and a specific emphasis was placed on the objective identification of rainfall events, as well as on the discrimination of flow responses observed above the ID threshold. The results show that parameters used to identify rainfall events significantly affect the ID threshold and are likely to explain part of the threshold variability reported in the literature. This is especially the case regarding the minimum duration of rain interruption (MDRI) between two distinct rainfall events. In the Réal Torrent, a 3-h MDRI appears to be representative of the local rainfall regime. A systematic increase in the ID threshold with drainage area was also observed from the comparison of the three stations, as well as from the compilation of data from experimental debris-flow catchments. A logistic regression used to separate flow responses above the ID threshold, revealed that the best predictors are the 5-min maximum rainfall intensity, the 48-h antecedent rainfall, the rainfall amount and the number of days elapsed since the end of winter (used as a proxy of sediment supply). This emphasizes the critical role played by short intense rainfall sequences that are only detectable using high time-resolution rainfall records. It also highlights the significant influence of antecedent conditions and the seasonal fluctuations of sediment supply.

Trends in autumn rain of West China from 1961 to 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chi; Wang, Zunya; Zhou, Botao; Li, Yonghua; Tang, Hongyu; Xiang, Bo

2018-02-01

Autumn rain of West China is a typical climate phenomenon, which is characterized by continuous rainy days and large rainfall amounts and exerts profound impacts on the economic society. Based on daily precipitation data from 524 observation stations for the period of 1961-2014, this article comprehensively examined secular changes in autumn rain of West China, including its amount, frequency, intensity, and associated extremes. The results generally show a significant reduction of rainfall amount and rainy days and a significant enhancement of mean rainfall intensity for the average of West China during autumn (September-October) since 1961. Meanwhile, decreasing trends are consistently observed in the maximum daily rainfall, the longest consecutive rainy days, the greatest consecutive rainfall amount, and the frequencies of the extreme daily rainfall, consecutive rainfall, and consecutive rainfall process. Further analysis indicates that the decreases of autumn rainfall and related extremes in West China are associated with the decreases in both water vapor content and atmospheric unstable stratification during the past decades. On the regional scale, some differences exist in the changes of autumn rainfall between the eastern and western parts of West China. Besides, it is found that the autumn rainy season tends to start later and terminate earlier particularly in eastern West China.

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EPA Pesticide Factsheets

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Improving understanding of the underlying physical process of sediment wash-off from urban road surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthusamy, Manoranjan; Tait, Simon; Schellart, Alma; Beg, Md Nazmul Azim; Carvalho, Rita F.; de Lima, João L. M. P.

2018-02-01

Among the urban aquatic pollutants, the most common is sediment which also acts as a transport medium for many contaminants. Hence there is an increasing interest in being able to better predict the sediment wash-off from urban surfaces. The exponential wash-off model is the most widely used method to predict the sediment wash-off. Although a number of studies proposed various modifications to the original exponential wash-off equation, these studies mostly looked into one parameter in isolation thereby ignoring the interactions between the parameters corresponding to rainfall, catchment and sediment characteristics. Hence in this study we aim (a) to investigate the effect of rainfall intensity, surface slope and initial load on wash-off load in an integrated and systematic way and (b) to subsequently improve the exponential wash-off equation focusing on the effect of the aforementioned three parameters. A series of laboratory experiments were carried out in a full-scale setup, comprising of a rainfall simulator, a 1 m2 bituminous road surface, and a continuous wash-off measuring system. Five rainfall intensities ranging from 33 to 155 mm/h, four slopes ranging from 2 to 16% and three initial loads ranging from 50 to 200 g/m2 were selected based on values obtained from the literature. Fine sediment with a size range of 300-600 μm was used for all of the tests. Each test was carried out for one hour with at least 9 wash-off samples per test collected. Mass balance checks were carried out for all the tests as a quality control measure to make sure that there is no significant loss of sand during the tests. Results show that the washed off sediment load at any given time is proportional to initial load for a given combination of rainfall intensity and surface slope. This indicates the importance of dedicated modelling of build-up so as to subsequently predict wash-off load. It was also observed that the maximum fraction that is washed off from the surface increases with both rainfall intensity and the surface slope. This observation leads to the second part of the study where the existing wash-off model is modified by introducing a capacity factor which defines this maximum fraction. This capacity factor is derived as a function of wash-off coefficient, making use of the correlation between the maximum fraction and the wash-off rate. Values of the modified wash-off coefficient are presented for all combinations of rainfall intensities and surface slopes, which can be transferred to other urban catchments with similar conditions.

Soil erosion under multiple time-varying rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heng, B. C. Peter; Barry, D. Andrew; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Sander, Graham C.

2010-05-01

Soil erosion is a function of many factors and process interactions. An erosion event produces changes in surface soil properties such as texture and hydraulic conductivity. These changes in turn alter the erosion response to subsequent events. Laboratory-scale soil erosion studies have typically focused on single independent rainfall events with constant rainfall intensities. This study investigates the effect of multiple time-varying rainfall events on soil erosion using the EPFL erosion flume. The rainfall simulator comprises ten Veejet nozzles mounted on oscillating bars 3 m above a 6 m × 2 m flume. Spray from the nozzles is applied onto the soil surface in sweeps; rainfall intensity is thus controlled by varying the sweeping frequency. Freshly-prepared soil with a uniform slope was subjected to five rainfall events at daily intervals. In each 3-h event, rainfall intensity was ramped up linearly to a maximum of 60 mm/h and then stepped down to zero. Runoff samples were collected and analysed for particle size distribution (PSD) as well as total sediment concentration. We investigate whether there is a hysteretic relationship between sediment concentration and discharge within each event and how this relationship changes from event to event. Trends in the PSD of the eroded sediment are discussed and correlated with changes in sediment concentration. Close-up imagery of the soil surface following each event highlight changes in surface soil structure with time. This study enhances our understanding of erosion processes in the field, with corresponding implications for soil erosion modelling.

Effects of rainfall patterns and land cover on the subsurface flow generation of sloping Ferralsols in southern China

PubMed Central

Yang, Jie; Tang, Chongjun; Chen, Lihua; Liu, Yaojun; Wang, Lingyun

2017-01-01

Rainfall patterns and land cover are two important factors that affect the runoff generation process. To determine the surface and subsurface flows associated with different rainfall patterns on sloping Ferralsols under different land cover types, observational data related to surface and subsurface flows from 5 m × 15 m plots were collected from 2010 to 2012. The experiment was conducted to assess three land cover types (grass, litter cover and bare land) in the Jiangxi Provincial Soil and Water Conservation Ecological Park. During the study period, 114 natural rainfall events produced subsurface flow and were divided into four groups using k-means clustering according to rainfall duration, rainfall depth and maximum 30-min rainfall intensity. The results showed that the total runoff and surface flow values were highest for bare land under all four rainfall patterns and lowest for the covered plots. However, covered plots generated higher subsurface flow values than bare land. Moreover, the surface and subsurface flows associated with the three land cover types differed significantly under different rainfall patterns. Rainfall patterns with low intensities and long durations created more subsurface flow in the grass and litter cover types, whereas rainfall patterns with high intensities and short durations resulted in greater surface flow over bare land. Rainfall pattern I had the highest surface and subsurface flow values for the grass cover and litter cover types. The highest surface flow value and lowest subsurface flow value for bare land occurred under rainfall pattern IV. Rainfall pattern II generated the highest subsurface flow value for bare land. Therefore, grass or litter cover are able to convert more surface flow into subsurface flow under different rainfall patterns. The rainfall patterns studied had greater effects on subsurface flow than on total runoff and surface flow for covered surfaces, as well as a greater effect on surface flows associated with bare land. PMID:28792507

Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Zhou, Y. P.

2011-01-01

In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.

Online monitoring and conditional regression tree test: Useful tools for a better understanding of combined sewer network behavior.

PubMed

Bersinger, T; Bareille, G; Pigot, T; Bru, N; Le Hécho, I

2018-06-01

A good knowledge of the dynamic of pollutant concentration and flux in a combined sewer network is necessary when considering solutions to limit the pollutants discharged by combined sewer overflow (CSO) into receiving water during wet weather. Identification of the parameters that influence pollutant concentration and flux is important. Nevertheless, few studies have obtained satisfactory results for the identification of these parameters using statistical tools. Thus, this work uses a large database of rain events (116 over one year) obtained via continuous measurement of rainfall, discharge flow and chemical oxygen demand (COD) estimated using online turbidity for the identification of these parameters. We carried out a statistical study of the parameters influencing the maximum COD concentration, the discharge flow and the discharge COD flux. In this study a new test was used that has never been used in this field: the conditional regression tree test. We have demonstrated that the antecedent dry weather period, the rain event average intensity and the flow before the event are the three main factors influencing the maximum COD concentration during a rainfall event. Regarding the discharge flow, it is mainly influenced by the overall rainfall height but not by the maximum rainfall intensity. Finally, COD discharge flux is influenced by the discharge volume and the maximum COD concentration. Regression trees seem much more appropriate than common tests like PCA and PLS for this type of study as they take into account the thresholds and cumulative effects of various parameters as a function of the target variable. These results could help to improve sewer and CSO management in order to decrease the discharge of pollutants into receiving waters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Soil moisture status in a set of rain-fed cereal fields: application of the DR2 model at monthly scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Vicente, M.; Navas, A.

2012-04-01

One important issue in agricultural management and hydrological research is the assessment of water stored during a rainfall event. In this study, the new Distributed Rainfall-Runoff (DR2) model (López-Vicente and Navas, 2012) is used to estimate the volume of actual available water (Waa) and the soil moisture status (SMS) in a set of rain-fed cereal fields (65 ha) located in the Central Spanish Pre-Pyrenees. This model makes the most of GIS techniques (ArcMapTM 10.0) and distinguishes five configurations of the upslope contributing area, infiltration processes and climatic parameters. Results are presented on a monthly basis. The study site has a relatively long history (since the 10th century) of human occupation, agricultural practices and water management. The landscape is representative of the typical former rain-fed Mediterranean agro-ecosystem where small patches of natural and anthropogenic areas are heterogeneously distributed. Climate is continental Mediterranean with a dry summer with rainfall events of high intensity (I30max, higher than 30 mm / h between May and October). Average annual precipitation was 520 mm for the reference period (1961-1990), whereas the average precipitation during the last ten years (2001-2010) was 16% lower (439 mm). Measured antecedent topsoil moisture presented the highest values in autumn (18.3 vol.%) and the lowest in summer (11.2 vol.%). Values of potential overland flow per raster cell (Q0) during maximum rainfall intensity varied notably in terms of time and space. When rainfall intensity is high (May, August, September and October), potential runoff was predicted along the surface of the crops and variability of Q0 was very low, whereas areas with no runoff production appeared when rainfall intensity was low and variability of Q0 values was high. A variance components analysis shows that values of Q0 are mainly explained by variations in the values of saturated hydraulic conductivity (76% of the variability of Q0) and, to a lesser extent, by the values of the antecedent topsoil moisture (23%) and the volumetric content of water of the soil at saturation (1%). Maps of monthly actual available water after maximum rainfall intensity presented a significant spatial variability, though values varied as a function of total rainfall depth and infiltration, and the five different scenarios of cumulative processes considered on the DR2 model. The minimum value of Waa for each month was well correlated with the average values of precipitation (Pearson's r = 0.86), whereas the mean values of Waa showed a close correlation with the values of maximum rainfall intensity (Pearson's r = 0.92). Maps of SMS and their values were reclassified in seven wetness-dryness categories. Predominant wet conditions occurred in May, September, October, November and December, whereas dry conditions appeared in February, March and July. Drying-up conditions were identified in January and June and wetting-up conditions occurred in April and August. The new DR2 model seems to be of interest to monitor humidity variations and trends in time and space in Mediterranean agricultural systems and can provide valuable information for sustainable soil and water resource management in agro-climatic analysis.

Flash floods along the Italian coastal areas: examples from Pozzuoli city, Campania, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposito, Giuseppe; Grimaldi, Giuseppe; Matano, Fabio; Mazzola, Salvatore; Sacchi, Marco

2014-05-01

The Italian western coastal areas are the most exposed in the country to low-pressure systems coming from the central-western Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. In the last years, many Italian coastal villages were struck by floods and flow processes triggered by high-intensity and short-duration rainfall, typical of flash flood events. In the Campania region (SW Italy) a series of events has caused several fatalities and heavy damages in the last decades, i.e. the flash floods of Casamicciola - Ischia Island (10/11/2009 - 1 fatality) and Atrani (9/9/2010 - 1 fatality). In this work we describe the rainfall properties and the ground effects of the 2009, 2010 and 2011 flash floods which involved the city of Pozzuoli, along the Campi Flegrei coast, where a catastrophic flood event (13 fatalities) is reported in 1918 in the AVI Project database. Rainfall data were measured at a sampling rate of 10 minutes by a regional Civil Protection rain gauge located in the city of Pozzuoli near the areas struck by the flash flood effects. In order to analyze the extreme features of the rainstorms and compare them, we have considered the 1-hour maximum rainfall amount and the 10-min peak storm intensity value for each event. The first rainstorm occurred on 14 September 2009; it was characterized by a 1-hour maximum rainfall amount of 34.4 mm and a 10-min peak storm intensity of 57.6 mm/h. The second rainstorm occurred on 30 July 2010; it was characterized by a 1-hour maximum rainfall amount of 40.6 mm and a 10-min peak storm intensity of 126 mm/h. The third rainstorm occurred on 06 November 2011; it was characterized by a 1-hour maximum rainfall amount of 44.2 mm and a 10-min peak storm intensity of 67.2 mm/h. The three described rainstorms all triggered erosional processes and shallow landslides in the upper part of the Pozzuoli drainage basin that supplied sheet flows and hyperconcentrated flows downstream, with severe damage to the human structures built near or inside the main drainage channels. In this area, in fact, one of the most serious problems for the Civil Protection authorities is the intense urbanization that dramatically increases not only the volcanic and seismic risks but also the level of geo-hydrological risk. The high degree of damage within the basin was also caused by incautious man-made modification of sectors of the drainage network and the use of culverts and even concrete-walled channel segments that in some cases were used as paved roads for local transportation. In all the three cases no warnings were issued to citizens because of the lack of early-warning systems but, fortunately, no fatalities or injuries were reported after the events. The analysis of these flash flood episodes showed an interesting case of interaction between hydrological processes and the geologic setting of a highly urbanized area such as the Campi Flegrei district, where the occurrence of heavy rain coupled with abundance of loose pyroclastic material on the steep volcanic hillslopes is likely to produce high levels of geo-hydrological hazard and risk.

Streamflow and Erosion Response to Prolonged Intense Rainfall of November 1-2, 2000, Island of Hawaii, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, Richard A.; Hill, Barry R.

2002-01-01

A combination of several meteorologic and topographic factors produced extreme rainfall over the eastern part of the island of Hawaii on November 1-2, 2000. Storm rainfall was concentrated in two distinct areas, the Waiakea and Kapapala areas, where maximum rainfall totals of 32.47 and 38.97 inches were recorded. Resultant flooding caused damages in excess of 70 million dollars, among the highest totals associated with flooding in the State's history. Storm rainfall had recurrence intervals that ranged from 10 years or less for maximum 1-hour totals to 100 years or more for maximum 24-hour totals As part of this study, peak flow and/or erosion data were collected at 41 sites. Analyses of these data indicated that peak discharges of record occurred at 6 of 12 sites where historic data were available. Peak flows with estimated recurrence intervals from 50 to over 100 years were recorded at 4 of 11 sites. Peak flows were poorly correlated with total storm rainfall. Critical rainfall durations associated with peak flows ranged from 1 to 12 hours and were about 3 hours at most sites. Rainfall-runoff computations and field observations indicated that infiltration-excess overland flow alone was not sufficient to have caused the observed flood peaks and therefore saturation-excess overland flow and subsurface flow probably contributed to peak flows at most sites Most hillslope erosion associated with the storm took place along or near the Kaoiki Pali in the Kapapala area. Hillslope erosion was predominately caused by overland flow.

Regional intensity-duration-frequency analysis in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey, by using L-moments and regression analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghiaei, Farhad; Kankal, Murat; Anilan, Tugce; Yuksek, Omer

2018-01-01

The analysis of rainfall frequency is an important step in hydrology and water resources engineering. However, a lack of measuring stations, short duration of statistical periods, and unreliable outliers are among the most important problems when designing hydrology projects. In this study, regional rainfall analysis based on L-moments was used to overcome these problems in the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB) of Turkey. The L-moments technique was applied at all stages of the regional analysis, including determining homogeneous regions, in addition to fitting and estimating parameters from appropriate distribution functions in each homogeneous region. We studied annual maximum rainfall height values of various durations (5 min to 24 h) from seven rain gauge stations located in the EBSB in Turkey, which have gauging periods of 39 to 70 years. Homogeneity of the region was evaluated by using L-moments. The goodness-of-fit criterion for each distribution was defined as the ZDIST statistics, depending on various distributions, including generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type 3 (PE3), and generalized Pareto (GPA). GLO and GEV determined the best distributions for short (5 to 30 min) and long (1 to 24 h) period data, respectively. Based on the distribution functions, the governing equations were extracted for calculation of intensities of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years return periods (T). Subsequently, the T values for different rainfall intensities were estimated using data quantifying maximum amount of rainfall at different times. Using these T values, duration, altitude, latitude, and longitude values were used as independent variables in a regression model of the data. The determination coefficient ( R 2) value indicated that the model yields suitable results for the regional relationship of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF), which is necessary for the design of hydraulic structures in small and medium sized catchments.

Landslide triggering thresholds for Switzerland based on a new gridded precipitation dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonarduzzi, Elena; Molnar, Peter; McArdell, Brian W.

2017-04-01

In Switzerland floods are responsible for most of the damage caused by rainfall-triggered natural hazards (89%), followed by landslides (6%, ca. 520 M Euros) as reported in Hilker et al. (2009) for the period 1972-2007. The prediction of landslide occurrence is particularly challenging because of their wide distribution in space and the complex interdependence of predisposing and triggering factors. The overall goal of our research is to develop an Early Warning System for landsliding in Switzerland based on hydrological modelling and rainfall forecasts. In order to achieve this, we first analyzed rainfall triggering thresholds for landslides from a new gridded daily precipitation dataset (RhiresD, MeteoSwiss) for Switzerland combined with landslide events recorded in the Swiss Damage Database (Hilker et al.,2009). The high-resolution gridded precipitation dataset allows us to collocate rainfall and landslides accurately in space, which is an advantage over many previous studies. Each of the 2272 landslides in the database in the period 1972-2012 was assigned to the corresponding 2x2 km precipitation cell. For each of these cells, precipitation events were defined as series of consecutive rainy days and the following event parameters were computed: duration (day), maximum and mean daily intensity (mm/day), total rainfall depth (mm) and maximum daily intensity divided by Mean Daily Precipitation (MDP). The events were classified as triggering or non-triggering depending on whether a landslide was recorded in the cell during the event. This classification of observations was compared to predictions based on a threshold for each of the parameters. The predictive power of each parameter and the best threshold value were quantified by ROC analysis and statistics such as AUC and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). Event parameters based on rainfall intensity were found to have similarly high predictive power (TSS=0.54-0.59, AUC=0.85-0.86), while rainfall duration had a significantly lower predictive power (TSS=0.24 and AUC=0.65). Slightly better performances were obtained when considering a typical power law intensity-duration curve as threshold (TSS=0.6). The analysis was repeated for sub-regions of the country based on erosivity and climate, using MDP and erodibility (Kuehni and Pfiffner, 2001), or a combination thereof, in the classification. When defining regional maximum intensity thresholds, the performances were further improved in all cases: for erodibility (TSS +1.3%), for MDP (TSS +3%), and for a combination of the two (TSS +5.1%). The regional maximum daily intensity thresholds varied greatly among classes, with differences of up to 43 mm/day, and they increased with decreasing erodibility and increasing MDP. This result was confirmed by considering the conditional probability of a landslide, which showed that for a given rainfall intensity the probability of a landslide in a region with wetter climate (higher MDP) is lower than that in a drier climate (lower MDP). This suggests the existence of a landscape balance between climate, erosion and soil formation. In order to demonstrate the quality and robustness of the results, we also show reference cases obtained by randomization of landslides in space and time, and resampling the data to equal sample size between triggering and non-triggering events (prevalence). Hilker, N., Badoux, A., & Hegg, C. (2009). The swiss flood and landslide damage database 1972-2007. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 9(3), 913-925. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.183 Kühni, A., & Pfiffner, O. A. (2001). The relief of the Swiss Alps and adjacent areas and its relation to lithology and structure: Topographic analysis from a 250-m DEM. Geomorphology, 41(4), 285-307. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(01)00060-5

Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnone, E.; Pumo, D.; Viola, F.; Noto, L. V.; La Loggia, G.

2013-07-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles that can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood-prone areas. In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends, while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative. Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. In particular, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration, while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in terms of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations, especially for 1 h rainfall duration. Conversely, precipitation events of long durations have exhibited a decreased trend. Increase in short-duration precipitation has been observed especially in stations located along the coastline; however, no clear and well-defined spatial pattern has been outlined by the results. Outcomes of analysis for daily rainfall properties have showed that heavy-torrential precipitation events tend to be more frequent at regional scale, while light rainfall events exhibited a negative trend at some sites. Values of total annual precipitation events confirmed a significant negative trend, mainly due to the reduction during the winter season.

A two-parameter design storm for Mediterranean convective rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Bartual, Rafael; Andrés-Doménech, Ignacio

2017-05-01

The following research explores the feasibility of building effective design storms for extreme hydrological regimes, such as the one which characterizes the rainfall regime of the east and south-east of the Iberian Peninsula, without employing intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves as a starting point. Nowadays, after decades of functioning hydrological automatic networks, there is an abundance of high-resolution rainfall data with a reasonable statistic representation, which enable the direct research of temporal patterns and inner structures of rainfall events at a given geographic location, with the aim of establishing a statistical synthesis directly based on those observed patterns. The authors propose a temporal design storm defined in analytical terms, through a two-parameter gamma-type function. The two parameters are directly estimated from 73 independent storms identified from rainfall records of high temporal resolution in Valencia (Spain). All the relevant analytical properties derived from that function are developed in order to use this storm in real applications. In particular, in order to assign a probability to the design storm (return period), an auxiliary variable combining maximum intensity and total cumulated rainfall is introduced. As a result, for a given return period, a set of three storms with different duration, depth and peak intensity are defined. The consistency of the results is verified by means of comparison with the classic method of alternating blocks based on an IDF curve, for the above mentioned study case.

[Characteristics of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Losses in Longhong Ravine Basin of Westlake in Rainstorm Runoff].

PubMed

Yang, Fan; Jiang, Yi-feng; Wang, Cui-cui; Huang, Xiao-nan; Wu, Zhi-ying; Chen, Lin

2016-01-15

In order to understand the non-point source pollution status in Longhong ravine basin of Westlake, the characteristics of nutrient losses in runoff was investigated during three rainstorms in one year. The results showed that long duration rainstorm event generally formed several runoff peaks, and the time of its lag behind the peaks of rain intensity was dependent on the distribution of heavy rainfall. The first flush was related to the antecedent rainfall, and the less rainfall in the earlier period, the more total phosphorus (TP) and ammonia (NH4+ -N) in runoff was washed off. During the recession of runoff, more subsurface runoff would result in a concentration peak of total nitrogen (TN) and nitrogen (NO3- -N) . The event mean concentration (EMC) of runoff nitrogen had a negative correlation with rainfall, rainfall duration, maximum rain intensity and average rain intensity except for antecedent rainfall, whereas the change in TP EMC showed the opposite trend. The transport fluxes of nutrients increased with an elevation in runoffs, and Pearson analysis showed that the transport fluxes of TN and NO3- -N had good correlations with runoff depth. The average transport fluxes of TP, TN, NH4+ -N and NO3- -N were 34.10, 1195.55, 1006.62 and 52.38 g x hm(-2), respectively, and NO3- -N was the main nitrogen form and accounted for 84% of TN.

Dynamics of runoff from high-intensity, short-duration storms.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1985-01-01

The effects of several parameters on the behavior of a runoff hydrograph were analyzed. The temporal distribution of rainfall was simulated using three synthetic storm patterns where the temporal location of the maximum burst was modified; the antece...

[Effects of simulating acid rain on photosynthesis and chlorophyll fluorescence parameters of Quercus glauca Quercus glauca].

PubMed

Wang, Sai; Yi, Li-Ta; Yu, Shu-Quan; Zhang, Chao; Shi, Jing-Jing

2014-08-01

At three levels of simulated acid rainfall intensities with pH values of 2.5 (severe), 40 (medium) and 5.6 (light) respectively, the responses of chlorophyll fluorescence and photosynthetic parameters of Quercus glauca seedlings were studied in three acid rainfall treatments, i. e. only the aboveground of seedlings exposed to acid rain (T1), both of the seedlings and soil exposed to acid rain (T2), only the soil exposed to acid rain (T3) compared with blank control (CK). Under the severe acid rainfall, T1 significantly inhibited chlorophyll synthesis, and thus reduced the primary photochemical efficiency of PS II ( F(v)/F(m)), potential activity of PS II (F(v)/F(o)) , apparent quantum (Y), net photosynthetic rate (P(n)), and transpiration rate (T(r)), but increased the light compensation point (LCP) and dark respiration rate (R(d)) of Q. glauca seedlings. T2 inhibited, but T3 played a little enhancement on the aforementioned parameters of Q. glauca seedlings. Under the conditions of medium and light acid rainfall intensities, the above parameters in the three treatments were higher than that of CK, except with lower R(d). The chlorophyll fluorescence and photosynthetic parameters showed a similar tendency in the three treatments, i. e. T2>T3 >T1. It indicated that T1 had the strongest inhibition on seedlings in condition of the severe acid rainfall, while T2 had the most dramatic facilitating effect on seedlings under the medium and light acid rainfall. Intensity of acid rainfall had significant influences on SPAD, F(v)/F(m), F(v)/F(o), Y, P(n), T(r), and maximum photosynthetic rate (A(max)), whereas treatments of acid rainfall affected SPAD, F(v)/F(m), Y, P(n), T(r), A(max) and light saturation point (LSP). The interaction of acid rainfall intensities and treatments played significant effects on SPAD, F(v)/F(m), Y, P(n) and A(max).

Analysis of extreme rainfall events using attributes control charts in temporal rainfall processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villeta, María; Valencia, Jose Luis; Saá-Requejo, Antonio; María Tarquis, Ana

2015-04-01

The impacts of most intense rainfall events on agriculture and insurance industry can be very severe. This research focuses in the analysis of extreme rainfall events throughout the use of attributes control charts, which constitutes a usual tool in Statistical Process Control (SPC) but unusual in climate studios. Here, series of daily precipitations for the years 1931-2009 within a Spanish region are analyzed, based on a new type of attributes control chart that takes into account the autocorrelation between the extreme rainfall events. The aim is to conclude if there exist or not evidence of a change in the extreme rainfall model of the considered series. After adjusting seasonally the precipitation series and considering the data of the first 30 years, a frequency-based criterion allowed fixing specification limits in order to discriminate between extreme observed rainfall days and normal observed rainfall days. The autocorrelation amongst maximum precipitation is taken into account by a New Binomial Markov Extended Process obtained for each rainfall series. These modelling of the extreme rainfall processes provide a way to generate the attributes control charts for the annual fraction of rainfall extreme days. The extreme rainfall processes along the rest of the years under study can then be monitored by such attributes control charts. The results of the application of this methodology show evidence of change in the model of extreme rainfall events in some of the analyzed precipitation series. This suggests that the attributes control charts proposed for the analysis of the most intense precipitation events will be of practical interest to agriculture and insurance sectors in next future.

Estimation of Rainfall Erosivity via 1-Minute to Hourly Rainfall Data from Taipei, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ting-Yin; Yang, Ssu-Yao; Jan, Chyan-Deng

2017-04-01

Soil erosion is a natural process on hillslopes that threats people's life and properties, having a considerable environmental and economic implications for soil degradation, agricultural activity and water quality. The rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), composed of total kinetic energy (E) and the maximum 30-min rainfall intensity (I30), is widely used as an indicator to measure the potential risks of soil loss caused by rainfall at a regional scale. This R factor can represent the detachment and entrainment involved in climate conditions on hillslopes, but lack of 30-min rainfall intensity data usually lead to apply this factor more difficult in many regions. In recent years, fixed-interval, hourly rainfall data is readily available and widely used due to the development of automatic weather stations. Here we assess the estimations of R, E, and I30 based on 1-, 5-, 10-, 15-, 30-, 60-minute rainfall data, and hourly rainfall data obtained from Taipei weather station during 2004 to 2010. Results show that there is a strong correlation among R-factors estimated from different interval rainfall data. Moreover, the shorter time-interval rainfall data (e.g., 1-min) yields larger value of R-factor. The conversion factors of rainfall erosivity (ratio of values estimated from the resolution lower than 30-min rainfall data to those estimated from 60-min and hourly rainfall data, respectively) range from 1.85 to 1.40 (resp. from 1.89 to 1.02) for 60-min (resp. hourly) rainfall data as the time resolution increasing from 30-min to 1-min. This paper provides useful information on estimating R-factor when hourly rainfall data is only available.

Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves, for data series and climate projection in African cities.

PubMed

De Paola, Francesco; Giugni, Maurizio; Topa, Maria Elena; Bucchignani, Edoardo

2014-01-01

Changes in the hydrologic cycle due to increase in greenhouse gases cause variations in intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events. Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and adapting to them is one way to reduce urban vulnerability. Since rainfall characteristics are often used to design water structures, reviewing and updating rainfall characteristics (i.e., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves) for future climate scenarios is necessary (Reg Environ Change 13(1 Supplement):25-33, 2013). The present study regards the evaluation of the IDF curves for three case studies: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania) and Douala (Cameroon). Starting from daily rainfall observed data, to define the IDF curves and the extreme values in a smaller time window (10', 30', 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h), disaggregation techniques of the collected data have been used, in order to generate a synthetic sequence of rainfall, with statistical properties similar to the recorded data. Then, the rainfall pattern of the three test cities was analyzed and IDF curves were evaluated. In order to estimate the contingent influence of climate change on the IDF curves, the described procedure was applied to the climate (rainfall) simulations over the time period 2010-2050, provided by CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici). The evaluation of the IDF curves allowed to frame the rainfall evolution of the three case studies, considering initially only historical data, then taking into account the climate projections, in order to verify the changes in rainfall patterns. The same set of data and projections was also used for evaluating the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP).

Critical rainfall conditions for the initiation of torrential flows. Results from the Rebaixader catchment (Central Pyrenees)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abancó, Clàudia; Hürlimann, Marcel; Moya, José; Berenguer, Marc

2016-10-01

Torrential flows like debris flows or debris floods are fast movements formed by a mix of water and different amounts of unsorted solid material. They generally occur in steep torrents and pose high risk in mountainous areas. Rainfall is their most common triggering factor and the analysis of the critical rainfall conditions is a fundamental research task. Due to their wide use in warning systems, rainfall thresholds for the triggering of torrential flows are an important outcome of such analysis and are empirically derived using data from past events. In 2009, a monitoring system was installed in the Rebaixader catchment, Central Pyrenees (Spain). Since then, rainfall data of 25 torrential flows (;TRIG rainfalls;) were recorded, with a 5-min sampling frequency. Other 142 rainfalls that did not trigger torrential flows (;NonTRIG rainfalls;) were also collected and analyzed. The goal of this work was threefold: (i) characterize rainfall episodes in the Rebaixader catchment and compare rainfall data that triggered torrential flows and others that did not; (ii) define and test Intensity-Duration (ID) thresholds using rainfall data measured inside the catchment by with different techniques; (iii) analyze how the criterion used for defining the rainfall duration and the spatial variability of rainfall influences the value obtained for the thresholds. The statistical analysis of the rainfall characteristics showed that the parameters that discriminate better the TRIG and NonTRIG rainfalls are the rainfall intensities, the mean rainfall and the total rainfall amount. The antecedent rainfall was not significantly different between TRIG and NonTRIG rainfalls, as it can be expected when the source material is very pervious (a sandy glacial soil in the study site). Thresholds were derived from data collected at one rain gauge located inside the catchment. Two different methods were applied to calculate the duration and intensity of rainfall: (i) using total duration, Dtot, and mean intensity, Imean, of the rainfall event, and (ii) using floating durations, D, and intensities, Ifl, based on the maximum values over floating periods of different duration. The resulting thresholds are considerably different (Imean = 6.20 Dtot-0.36 and Ifl_90% = 5.49 D-0.75, respectively) showing a strong dependence on the applied methodology. On the other hand, the definition of the thresholds is affected by several types of uncertainties. Data from both rain gauges and weather radar were used to analyze the uncertainty associated with the spatial variability of the triggering rainfalls. The analysis indicates that the precipitation recorded by the nearby rain gauges can introduce major uncertainties, especially for convective summer storms. Thus, incorporating radar rainfall can significantly improve the accuracy of the measured triggering rainfall. Finally, thresholds were also derived according to three different criteria for the definition of the duration of the triggering rainfall: (i) the duration until the peak intensity, (ii) the duration until the end of the rainfall; and, (iii) the duration until the trigger of the torrential flow. An important contribution of this work is the assessment of the threshold relationships obtained using the third definition of duration. Moreover, important differences are observed in the obtained thresholds, showing that ID relationships are significantly dependent on the applied methodology.

Adjusting skewness and maximum 0.5 hour intensity in CLIGEN to improve extreme event and sub-daily intensity generation for assessing climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Both measured data and GCM/RCM projections show an general increasing trend in extreme rainfall events as temperature rises in US. Proper simulation of extreme events is particularly important for assessing climate change impacts on soil erosion and hydrology. The objective of this paper is to fin...

Characterization and disaggregation of daily rainfall in the Upper Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engida, Agizew N.; Esteves, Michel

2011-03-01

SummaryIn Ethiopia, available rainfall records are mainly limited to daily time steps. Though rainfall data at shorter time steps are important for various purposes like modeling of erosion processes and flood hydrographs, they are hardly available in Ethiopia. The objectives of this study were (i) to study the temporal characteristics of daily rains at two stations in the region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB) and (ii) to calibrate and evaluate a daily rainfall disaggregation model. The analysis was based on rainfall data of Bahir Dar and Gonder Meteorological Stations. The disaggregation model used was the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Model (MBLRPM). The mean daily rainfall intensity varied from about 4 mm in the dry season to 17 mm in the wet season with corresponding variation in raindays of 0.4-26 days. The observed maximum daily rainfall varied from 13 mm in the dry month to 200 mm in the wet month. The average wet/dry spell length varied from 1/21 days in the dry season to 6/1 days in the rainy season. Most of the rainfall occurs in the afternoon and evening periods of the day. Daily rainfall disaggregation using the MBLRPM alone resulted in poor match between the disaggregated and observed hourly rainfalls. Stochastic redistribution of the outputs of the model using Beta probability distribution function improved the agreement between observed and calculated hourly rain intensities. In areas where convective rainfall is dominant, the outputs of MBLRPM should be redistributed using relevant probability distributions to simulate the diurnal rainfall pattern.

Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

2015-12-01

The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

Characteristics and Preliminary Causes of Tropical Cyclone Extreme Rainfall Events over Hainan Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xianling; Ren, Fumin; Li, Yunjie; Qiu, Wenyu; Ma, Zhuguo; Cai, Qinbo

2018-05-01

The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) extreme rainfall events over Hainan Island from 1969 to 2014 are analyzed from the viewpoint of the TC maximum daily rainfall (TMDR) using daily station precipitation data from the Meteorological Information Center of the China Meteorological Administration, TC best-track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The frequencies of the TMDR reaching 50, 100 and 250 mm show a decreasing trend [-0.7 (10 yr)-1], a weak decreasing trend [-0.2 (10 yr)-1] and a weak increasing trend [0.1 (10 yr)-1], respectively. For seasonal variations, the TMDR of all intensity grades mainly occurs from July to October, with the frequencies of TMDR - 50 mm and - 100 mm peaking in September and the frequency of TMDR - 250 mm [TC extreme rainstorm (TCER) events] peaking in August and September. The western region (Changjiang) of the Island is always the rainfall center, independent of the intensity or frequencies of different intensity grades. The causes of TCERs are also explored and the results show that topography plays a key role in the characteristics of the rainfall events. TCERs are easily induced on the windward slopes of Wuzhi Mountain, with the coordination of TC tracks and TC wind structure. A slower speed of movement, a stronger TC intensity and a farther westward track are all conducive to extreme rainfall events. A weaker northwestern Pacific subtropical high is likely to make the 500-hPa steering flow weaker and results in slower TC movement, whereas a stronger South China Sea summer monsoon can carry a higher moisture flux. These two environmental factors are both favorable for TCERs.

Research on the Characteristics and Mechanism of the Cumulative Release of Antimony from an Antimony Smelting Slag Stacking Area under Rainfall Leaching

PubMed Central

Zhou, Yingying; Deng, Renjian

2017-01-01

We aimed to study the characteristics and the mechanism of the cumulative release of antimony at an antimony smelting slag stacking area in southern China. A series of dynamic and static leaching experiments to simulate the effects of rainfall were carried out. The results showed that the release of antimony from smelting slag increased with a decrease in the solid-liquid ratio, and the maximum accumulated release was found to be 42.13 mg Sb/kg waste and 34.26 mg Sb/kg waste with a solid/liquid ratio of 1 : 20; the maximum amount of antimony was released within 149–420 μm size fraction with 7.09 mg/L of the cumulative leaching. Also, the antimony release was the greatest and most rapid at pH 7.0 with the minimum release found at pH 4.0. With an increase in rainfall duration, the antimony release increased. The influence of variation in rainfall intensity on the release of antimony from smelting slag was small. PMID:28804669

The use of simulated rainfall to study the discharge process and the influence factors of urban surface runoff pollution loads.

PubMed

Qinqin, Li; Qiao, Chen; Jiancai, Deng; Weiping, Hu

2015-01-01

An understanding of the characteristics of pollutants on impervious surfaces is essential to estimate pollution loads and to design methods to minimize the impacts of pollutants on the environment. In this study, simulated rainfall equipment was constructed to investigate the pollutant discharge process and the influence factors of urban surface runoff (USR). The results indicated that concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) appeared to be higher in the early period and then decreased gradually with rainfall duration until finally stabilized. The capacity and particle size of surface dust, rainfall intensity and urban surface slopes affected runoff pollution loads to a variable extent. The loads of TP, TN and COD showed a positive relationship with the surface dust capacity, whereas the maximum TSS load appeared when the surface dust was 0.0317 g·cm⁻². Smaller particle sizes (<0.125 mm) of surface dust generated high TN, TP and COD loads. Increases in rainfall intensity and surface slope enhanced the pollution carrying capacity of runoff, leading to higher pollution loads. Knowledge of the influence factors could assist in the management of USR pollution loads.

Towards Near Real-time Convective Rainfall Observations over Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoedjes, Joost; Said, Mohammed; Becht, Robert; Kifugo, Shem; Kooiman, André; Limo, Agnes; Maathuis, Ben; Moore, Ian; Mumo, Mark; Nduhiu Mathenge, Joseph; Su, Bob; Wright, Iain

2013-04-01

The existing meteorological infrastructure in Kenya is poorly suited for the countrywide real-time monitoring of precipitation. Rainfall radar is not available, and the existing network of rain gauges is sparse and challenging to maintain. This severely restricts Kenya's capacity to warn for, and respond to, weather related emergencies. Furthermore, the lack of accurate rainfall observations severely limits Kenya's climate change adaptation capabilities. Over the past decade, the mobile telephone network in Kenya has expanded rapidly. This network makes extensive use of terrestrial microwave (MW) links, received signal level (RSL) data from which can be used for the calculation of rainfall intensities. We present a novel method for the near-real time observation of convective rainfall over Kenya, based on the combined use of MW RSL data and Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite data. In this study, the variable density rainfall information derived from several MW links is scaled up using MSG data to provide full rainfall information coverage for the region surrounding the links. Combining MSG data and MW link derived rainfall data for several adjacent MW links makes it possible to make the distinction between wet and dry pixels. This allows the disaggregation of the MW link derived rainfall intensities. With the distinction between wet and dry pixels made, and the MW derived rainfall intensities disaggregated, these data can then be used to develop instantaneous empirical relationships linking rainfall intensities to cloud physical properties. These relationships are then used to calculate rainfall intensities for the MSG scene. Since both the MSG and the MW data are available at the same temporal resolution, unique empirical coefficients can be determined for each interval. This approach ensures that changes in convective conditions from one interval to the next are taken into account. Initial results from a pilot study, which took place from November 2012 until January 2013, are presented. The work has been carried out in close cooperation with mobile telephone operator Safaricom, using RSL data from 15 microwave links in rain prone areas in Western Kenya (out of a total of 3000 MW links operated by Safaricom in Kenya). The data supplied by Safaricom consist of the mean, minimum and maximum RSL for each MW link over a 15 minute interval. For this pilot study, use has been made of the MSG Cloud Top Temperature data product from the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute's MSG Cloud Physical Properties database (http://msgcpp.knmi.nl/).

Centrifuge Modeling of Rainfall Induced Slope Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling, H.; Wu, M.

2006-12-01

Rainfall induces slope failure and debris flow which are considered as one of the major natural disasters. The scope of such failure is very large and it cannot be studied easily in the laboratory. Traditionally, small scale model tests are used to study such problem. Knowing that the behavior of soil is affected by the stress level, centrifuge modeling technique has been used to simulate more realistically full scale earth structures. In this study, two series of tests were conducted on slopes under the centrifugal field with and without the presence of rainfall. The soil used was a mixture of sand and 15 percent fines. The slopes of angle 60 degrees were prepared at optimum water content in order to achieve the maximum density. In the first series of tests, three different slope heights of 10 cm, 15 cm and 20 cm were used. The gravity was increased gradually until slope failure in order to obtain the prototype failure height. The slope model was cut after the test in order to obtain the configuration of failure surface. It was found that the slope geometry normalized by the height at failure provided unique results. Knowing the slope height or gravity at failure, the second series of tests with rainfall were conducted slightly below the critical height. That is, after attaining the desired gravity, the rainfall was induced in the centrifuge. Special nozzles were used and calibrated against different levels of gravity in order to obtain desired rainfall intensity. Five different rainfall intensities were used on the 15-cm slopes at 80g and 60g, which corresponded to 12 m and 9 m slope height, respectively. The duration until failure for different rainfall intensities was obtained. Similar to the first series of tests, the slope model was cut and investigated after the test. The results showed that the failure surface was not significantly affected by the rainfall. That is, the excess pore pressure induced by rainfall generated slope failure. The prediction curves of rainfall intensity versus duration were obtained from the test results. Such curves are extremely useful for disaster management. This study indicated feasibilities of using centrifuge modeling technique in simulating rainfall induced slope failure. The results obtained may also be used for validating numerical tools.

Set-up and calibration of an indoor nozzle-type rainfall simulator for soil erosion studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lassu, T.; Seeger, M.

2012-04-01

Rainfall simulation is one of the most prevalent methods used in soil erosion studies on agricultural land. In-situ simulators have been used to relate soil surface characteristics and management to runoff generation, infiltration and erosion, eg. the influence of different cultivation systems, and to parameterise erosion models. Laboratory rainfall simulators have been used to determine the impact of the soil surface characteristics such as micro-topography, surface roughness, and soil chemistry on infiltration and erosion rates, and to elucidate the processes involved. The purpose of the following study is to demonstrate the set-up and the calibration of a large indoor, nozzle-type rainfall simulator (RS) for soil erosion, surface runoff and rill development studies. This RS is part of the Kraijenhoff van de Leur Laboratory for Water and Sediment Dynamics in Wageningen University. The rainfall simulator consists from a 6 m long and 2,5 m wide plot, with metal lateral frame and one open side. Infiltration can be collected in different segments. The plot can be inclined up to 15.5° slope. From 3,85 m height above the plot 2 Lechler nozzles 460.788 are sprinkling the water onto the surface with constant intensity. A Zehnder HMP 450 pump provides the constant water supply. An automatic pressure switch on the pump keeps the pressure constant during the experiments. The flow rate is controlled for each nozzle by independent valves. Additionally, solenoid valves are mounted at each nozzle to interrupt water flow. The flow is monitored for each nozzle with flow meters and can be recorded within the computer network. For calibration of the RS we measured the rainfall distribution with 60 gauges equally distributed over the plot during 15 minutes for each nozzle independently and for a combination of 2 identical nozzles. The rainfall energy was recorded on the same grid by measuring drop size distribution and fall velocity with a laser disdrometer. We applied 2 different flow rates (4,5 l/min and 5,5 l/min), resulting in different rainfall intensities and made 2 repetitions each. The average rainfall intensity was 36,8 mm/h at the first and 37,6 mm/h at the second repetition with the lower flow rate (4,5 l/min). With the higher flow rate (5,5 l/min) at the first repetition it was 44,4 mm/h and 46 mm/h at the second one. The maximum and minimum values were 22 mm and 2 mm at the lower (4,5 l/min) flow rate, respectively 26 mm and 4 mm at the higher one (5,5 l/min). In this latter case, the resulting average kinetic energy reached 7 J m-2 mm-1, with a maximum 31,3 J m-2 mm-1 of and a minimum of 2,9 J m-2 mm-1. The Christiansen Uniformity coefficient (CU) for the lower intensities was 66% and 69%, respectively, with the higher intensities slightly better (70% and 72%). The data of the rainfall simulator in Wageningen make it a promising tool for research in soil erosion processes.

Technical note: Space-time analysis of rainfall extremes in Italy: clues from a reconciled dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libertino, Andrea; Ganora, Daniele; Claps, Pierluigi

2018-05-01

Like other Mediterranean areas, Italy is prone to the development of events with significant rainfall intensity, lasting for several hours. The main triggering mechanisms of these events are quite well known, but the aim of developing rainstorm hazard maps compatible with their actual probability of occurrence is still far from being reached. A systematic frequency analysis of these occasional highly intense events would require a complete countrywide dataset of sub-daily rainfall records, but this kind of information was still lacking for the Italian territory. In this work several sources of data are gathered, for assembling the first comprehensive and updated dataset of extreme rainfall of short duration in Italy. The resulting dataset, referred to as the Italian Rainfall Extreme Dataset (I-RED), includes the annual maximum rainfalls recorded in 1 to 24 consecutive hours from more than 4500 stations across the country, spanning the period between 1916 and 2014. A detailed description of the spatial and temporal coverage of the I-RED is presented, together with an exploratory statistical analysis aimed at providing preliminary information on the climatology of extreme rainfall at the national scale. Due to some legal restrictions, the database can be provided only under certain conditions. Taking into account the potentialities emerging from the analysis, a description of the ongoing and planned future work activities on the database is provided.

Occurrence and Transport of Agricultural Chemicals in Leary Weber Ditch Basin, Hancock County, Indiana, 2003-04

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, Nancy T.; Stone, Wesley W.; Wilson, John T.; Meyer, Michael T.

2006-01-01

Leary Weber Ditch Basin, Hancock County, Indiana, is one of seven first-order basins selected from across the United States as part of the Agricultural Chemicals: Source, Transport, and Fate study conducted by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. The nationwide study was designed to increase the understanding of the links between the sources of water and agricultural chemicals (nutrients and pesticides) and the transport and fate of these chemicals through the environment. Agricultural chemicals were detected in Leary Weber Ditch and in every associated hydrologic compartment sampled during 2003 and 2004. Pesticides were detected more frequently in samples collected from overland flow and from the ditch itself and less frequently in ground-water samples. The lowest concentrations of pesticides and nutrients were detected in samples of rain, soil water, and ground water. The highest concentrations of pesticides and nutrients were detected in samples of tile-drain water, overland flow, and water from Leary Weber Ditch. Samples collected from the tile drain, overland flow and Leary Weber Ditch soon after chemical applications to the fields and coincident with rainfall and increased streamflow had higher concentrations of pesticides and nutrients than samples collected a longer time after the chemicals were applied. A mass-balance mixing analysis based on potassium concentrations indicated that tile drains are the primary contributor of water to Leary Weber Ditch, but overland flow is also an important contributor during periods of high-intensity rainfall. When maximum rainfall intensity was 0.5 inches per hour or lower, overland flow contributed about 10 percent and tile drains contributed about 90 percent of the flow to Leary Weber Ditch. When maximum rainfall intensity was 0.75 inches per hour or greater, overland flow contributed about 40 percent and tile drains contributed about 60 percent of the flow to the ditch. Ground-water flow to Leary Weber Ditch was negligible. Tile drains are an important agricultural-chemical transport path to Leary Weber Ditch, based on the hydrologic contributions of overland flow and tile drains to the ditch. Overland flow is also an important agricultural-chemical transport pathway during high-intensity rainfall; however, storms with high-intensity rainfall are sporadic throughout the year. Tile drains and the soil water moving to the tile drains are the primary transport pathway for agricultural-chemical transport to Leary Weber Ditch during most storms as well as between storms.

A dimensionless approach for the runoff peak assessment: effects of the rainfall event structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnecco, Ilaria; Palla, Anna; La Barbera, Paolo

2018-02-01

The present paper proposes a dimensionless analytical framework to investigate the impact of the rainfall event structure on the hydrograph peak. To this end a methodology to describe the rainfall event structure is proposed based on the similarity with the depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves. The rainfall input consists of a constant hyetograph where all the possible outcomes in the sample space of the rainfall structures can be condensed. Soil abstractions are modelled using the Soil Conservation Service method and the instantaneous unit hydrograph theory is undertaken to determine the dimensionless form of the hydrograph; the two-parameter gamma distribution is selected to test the proposed methodology. The dimensionless approach is introduced in order to implement the analytical framework to any study case (i.e. natural catchment) for which the model assumptions are valid (i.e. linear causative and time-invariant system). A set of analytical expressions are derived in the case of a constant-intensity hyetograph to assess the maximum runoff peak with respect to a given rainfall event structure irrespective of the specific catchment (such as the return period associated with the reference rainfall event). Looking at the results, the curve of the maximum values of the runoff peak reveals a local minimum point corresponding to the design hyetograph derived according to the statistical DDF curve. A specific catchment application is discussed in order to point out the dimensionless procedure implications and to provide some numerical examples of the rainfall structures with respect to observed rainfall events; finally their effects on the hydrograph peak are examined.

Climatological determinants of woody cover in Africa.

PubMed

Good, Stephen P; Caylor, Kelly K

2011-03-22

Determining the factors that influence the distribution of woody vegetation cover and resolving the sensitivity of woody vegetation cover to shifts in environmental forcing are critical steps necessary to predict continental-scale responses of dryland ecosystems to climate change. We use a 6-year satellite data record of fractional woody vegetation cover and an 11-year daily precipitation record to investigate the climatological controls on woody vegetation cover across the African continent. We find that-as opposed to a relationship with only mean annual rainfall-the upper limit of fractional woody vegetation cover is strongly influenced by both the quantity and intensity of rainfall events. Using a set of statistics derived from the seasonal distribution of rainfall, we show that areas with similar seasonal rainfall totals have higher fractional woody cover if the local rainfall climatology consists of frequent, less intense precipitation events. Based on these observations, we develop a generalized response surface between rainfall climatology and maximum woody vegetation cover across the African continent. The normalized local gradient of this response surface is used as an estimator of ecosystem vegetation sensitivity to climatological variation. A comparison between predicted climate sensitivity patterns and observed shifts in both rainfall and vegetation during 2009 reveals both the importance of rainfall climatology in governing how ecosystems respond to interannual fluctuations in climate and the utility of our framework as a means to forecast continental-scale patterns of vegetation shifts in response to future climate change.

Constraining relationships between rainfall and landsliding with satellite derived rainfall measurements and landslide inventories.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marc, Odin; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Stumpf, Andre; Gosset, Marielle

2017-04-01

In mountainous and hilly regions, landslides are an important source of damage and fatalities. Landsliding correlates with extreme rainfall events and may increase with climate change. Still, how precipitation drives landsliding at regional scales is poorly understood quantitatively in part because constraining simultaneously landsliding and rainfall across large areas is challenging. By combining optical images acquired from satellite observation platforms and rainfall measurements from satellite constellations we are building a database of landslide events caused by with single storm events. We present results from storm-induced landslides from Brazil, Taiwan, Micronesia, Central America, Europe and the USA. We present scaling laws between rainfall metrics derived by satellites (total rainfall, mean intensity, antecedent rainfall, ...) and statistical descriptors of landslide events (total area and volume, size distribution, mean runout, ...). Total rainfall seems to be the most important parameter driving non-linearly the increase in total landslide number, and area and volume. The maximum size of bedrock landslides correlates with the total number of landslides, and thus with total rainfall, within the limits of available topographic relief. In contrast, the power-law scaling exponent of the size distribution, controlling the relative abundance of small and large landslides, appears rather independent of the rainfall metrics (intensity, duration and total rainfall). These scaling laws seem to explain both the intra-storm pattern of landsliding, at the scale of satellite rainfall measurements ( 25kmx25km), and the different impacts observed for various storms. Where possible, we evaluate the limits of standard rainfall products (TRMM, GPM, GSMaP) by comparing them to in-situ data. Then we discuss how slope distribution and other geomorphic factors (lithology, soil presence,...) modulate these scaling laws. Such scaling laws at the basin scale and based only on a-priori information (topography, lithology, …) and rainfall metrics available from meteorological forecast may allow to better anticipate and mitigates landsliding associated with extreme rainfall events.

Error threshold inference from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite rainfall data and interpolated ground-based rainfall measurements in Metro Manila

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ampil, L. J. Y.; Yao, J. G.; Lagrosas, N.; Lorenzo, G. R. H.; Simpas, J.

2017-12-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is a group of satellites that provides global observations of precipitation. Satellite-based observations act as an alternative if ground-based measurements are inadequate or unavailable. Data provided by satellites however must be validated for this data to be reliable and used effectively. In this study, the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Final Run v3 half-hourly product is validated by comparing against interpolated ground measurements derived from sixteen ground stations in Metro Manila. The area considered in this study is the region 14.4° - 14.8° latitude and 120.9° - 121.2° longitude, subdivided into twelve 0.1° x 0.1° grid squares. Satellite data from June 1 - August 31, 2014 with the data aggregated to 1-day temporal resolution are used in this study. The satellite data is directly compared to measurements from individual ground stations to determine the effect of the interpolation by contrast against the comparison of satellite data and interpolated measurements. The comparisons are calculated by taking a fractional root-mean-square error (F-RMSE) between two datasets. The results show that interpolation improves errors compared to using raw station data except during days with very small amounts of rainfall. F-RMSE reaches extreme values of up to 654 without a rainfall threshold. A rainfall threshold is inferred to remove extreme error values and make the distribution of F-RMSE more consistent. Results show that the rainfall threshold varies slightly per month. The threshold for June is inferred to be 0.5 mm, reducing the maximum F-RMSE to 9.78, while the threshold for July and August is inferred to be 0.1 mm, reducing the maximum F-RMSE to 4.8 and 10.7, respectively. The maximum F-RMSE is reduced further as the threshold is increased. Maximum F-RMSE is reduced to 3.06 when a rainfall threshold of 10 mm is applied over the entire duration of JJA. These results indicate that IMERG performs well for moderate to high intensity rainfall and that the interpolation remains effective only when rainfall exceeds a certain threshold value. Over Metro Manila, an F-RMSE threshold of 0.5 mm indicated better correspondence between ground measured and satellite measured rainfall.

Precipitation intensity probability distribution modelling for hydrological and construction design purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koshinchanov, Georgy; Dimitrov, Dobri

2008-11-01

The characteristics of rainfall intensity are important for many purposes, including design of sewage and drainage systems, tuning flood warning procedures, etc. Those estimates are usually statistical estimates of the intensity of precipitation realized for certain period of time (e.g. 5, 10 min., etc) with different return period (e.g. 20, 100 years, etc). The traditional approach in evaluating the mentioned precipitation intensities is to process the pluviometer's records and fit probability distribution to samples of intensities valid for certain locations ore regions. Those estimates further become part of the state regulations to be used for various economic activities. Two problems occur using the mentioned approach: 1. Due to various factors the climate conditions are changed and the precipitation intensity estimates need regular update; 2. As far as the extremes of the probability distribution are of particular importance for the practice, the methodology of the distribution fitting needs specific attention to those parts of the distribution. The aim of this paper is to make review of the existing methodologies for processing the intensive rainfalls and to refresh some of the statistical estimates for the studied areas. The methodologies used in Bulgaria for analyzing the intensive rainfalls and produce relevant statistical estimates: The method of the maximum intensity, used in the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology to process and decode the pluviometer's records, followed by distribution fitting for each precipitation duration period; As the above, but with separate modeling of probability distribution for the middle and high probability quantiles. Method is similar to the first one, but with a threshold of 0,36 mm/min of intensity; Another method proposed by the Russian hydrologist G. A. Aleksiev for regionalization of estimates over some territory, improved and adapted by S. Gerasimov for Bulgaria; Next method is considering only the intensive rainfalls (if any) during the day with the maximal annual daily precipitation total for a given year; Conclusions are drown on the relevance and adequacy of the applied methods.

Hydrometeorological Analysis of Tropical Storm Hermine and Central Texas Flash Flooding, September 2010.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furl, Chad; Sharif, Hatim; ElHassan, Almoutaz; Mazari, Newfel; Burtch, Daniel; Mullendore, Gretchen

2015-04-01

Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with Tropical Storm Hermine occurred 7-8 September 2010 across central Texas resulting in several fatalities and extensive property damage. The largest rainfall totals were received near Austin, TX and immediately north where twenty four hour accumulations reached a 500 year recurrence interval. Among the most heavily impacted drainage basins was the Bull Creek watershed (58 km2) in Austin, TX where peak flows exceeded 500 m3 s-1. The large flows were produced from a narrow band of intense storm cells training over the small watershed for approximately six hours. Meteorological analysis along with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations indicate a quasi-stationary synoptic feature slowing the storm, orographic enhancement from the Balcones Escarpment, and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico were important features producing the locally heavy rainfall. The effect from the Balcones Escarpment was explicitly tested by conducting simulations with and without the escarpment terrain. High resolution, gauge adjusted radar collected as part of a flash flood warning system was used to describe spatiotemporal rainfall patterns and force the Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. The radar dataset indicated the basin received nearly 300 mm of precipitation with maximum sustained intensities of 50 mm hr-1. Roughly 60 percent of storm totals fell during two periods lasting a combined five hours. Stream flow showed a highly non-linear response to two periods of intense rainfall. GSSHA simulations indicate this can be partially explained by the spatial organization of rainfall coupled with landscape retention.

Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

2017-12-01

The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up infrastructure against flood disasters in Upper Tapi Basin, India.

LADOTD 24-Hour rainfall frequency maps and I-D-F curves : summary report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1991-08-01

Maximum annual 24-hour maps and Intensity-Duration-Frequency (I-D-F) curves for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years were developed using hourly precipitation data. Data from 92 rain gauges for the period of 1948 to 1987 were compiled and...

Runoff Response at Three Spatial Scale from a Burned Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moody, J. A.; Kinner, D. A.

2007-12-01

The hypothesis that the magnitude and timing of runoff from burned watersheds are functions of the properties of flow paths at multiple scales was investigated at three nested spatial scales within an area burned by the 2005 Harvard Fire near Burbank, California. Water depths were measured using pressure sensors: at the outlet of a subwatershed (10000 m2); in 3-inch Parshall flumes near the outlets of three mini-watersheds (820-1780 m2) within the subwatershed; and by 12 overland-flow detectors in 6 micro-watersheds (~11-15 m2) within one of the mini-watersheds. Rainfall intensities were measured using recording raingages deployed around the perimeter of the mini-watersheds and at the subwatershed outlet. Time-to-concentration, TC, and lag time, TL, were computed for the 15 largest of 30 rainstorms (maximum 30- minute intensities were 3.3-13.0 mm/h) between December 2005 and April 2006. TC , elapsed time from the beginning of the rain until the first increase in water depth, averaged 1.0 hours at the micro-scale, 1.7 hours at the mini-scale, and 1.5 hours at the subwatershed scale. TL is the lag time that produced the maximum cross- correlation coefficient between the time series of rainfall intensities and the series of water depths. TL averaged 0.15 hours at the micro-scale, 0.35 hours at the mini-scale, and 0.39 hours at the subwatershed scale. The coefficient was >0.50 for 43% (N=168) of the measurements at the micro-scale, for 61% (N=54) at the mini- scale, and for 67% (N=6) at the subwatershed scale indicating the runoff response lagged but was often well correlated with the time-varying rainfall intensity.

Impacts of different rainfall patterns on hyporheic zone under transient conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, S.; Chui, T. F. M.

2017-12-01

The hyporheic zone (HZ), the region beneath or alongside a streambed, can play a vital role in stream ecology. Several previous studies have investigated the influential factors on the HZ in the steady state. However, the exchange between surface water and groundwater in the HZ can be dynamic and transient, during a transient event such as a storm. Therefore, this study investigates the changes of the HZ under the transient conditions of a storm, and examines the impacts of different rainfall patterns (i.e., intensity and duration) on the HZ. A two-dimensional groundwater-stream model is developed with a domain of 10-meter long and 2-meter deep. The streambed consists of a series of dunes that induce hyporheic exchanges. Brinkman-Darcy and Navier-Stokes equations are respectively employed for the subsurface and stream water, and the velocity and the pressure are coupled at the interface (i.e., the streambed). To compare the results from different rainfall patterns, the influential duration (IT) and the influential depth (ID) are proposed and evaluated. IT is the time required for the HZ to return to its intial stage, once it starts to change. ID is the maximum increment in the depth of the HZ. To accurately detect the region of the HZ in different situations, the moving split-window analysis method is used. The region of the HZ is found to vary significantly under different rainfall intensities. Rainfall intensity displays logarithmic relationships with both the IT and ID with high coefficients of determination (r2=0.98). The derived relationships can be used to predict the influrence of a rainfall event on the HZ. However, the influence of rainfall duration on the HZ depends on other factors such as groundwater response. Rainfall duration displays positive realionships with the IT and ID, but only between certain lower and upper thresholds of rainfall duration. If rainfall duration is shorter than the lower threshold value or longer than the upper value, the IT and ID will have little change with rainfall duration.

Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

PubMed

Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

2013-01-01

Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

[Effects of rainfall intensity on rainfall infiltration and redistribution in soil on Loess slope land].

PubMed

Li, Yi; Shao, Ming'an

2006-12-01

With simulation test, this paper studied the patterns of rainfall infiltration and redistribution in soil on typical Loess slope land, and analyzed the quantitative relations between the infiltration and redistribution and the movement of soil water and mass, with rainfall intensity as the main affecting factor. The results showed that rainfall intensity had significant effects on the rainfall infiltration and water redistribution in soil, and the microcosmic movement of soil water. The larger the rainfall intensity, the deeper the wetting front of rainfall infiltration and redistribution was, and the wetting front of soil water redistribution had a slower increase velocity than that of rainfall infiltration. The power function of the wetting front with time, and also with rainfall intensity, was fitted well. There was also a quantitative relation between the wetting front of rainfall redistribution and the duration of rainfall. The larger the rainfall intensity, the higher the initial and steady infiltration rates were, and the cumulative infiltration increased faster with time. Moreover, the larger the rainfall intensity, the smaller the wetting front difference was at the top and the end of the slope. With the larger rainfall intensity, both the difference of soil water content and its descending trend between soil layers became more obvious during the redistribution process on slope land.

Regionalization of monthly rainfall erosivity patternsin Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Simon; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos; Meusburger, Katrin

2016-10-01

One major controlling factor of water erosion is rainfall erosivity, which is quantified as the product of total storm energy and a maximum 30 min intensity (I30). Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). As rainfall erosivity is closely correlated with rainfall amount and intensity, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland can be expected to have a regional characteristic and seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This intra-annual variability was mapped by a monthly modeling approach to assess simultaneously spatial and monthly patterns of rainfall erosivity. So far only national seasonal means and regional annual means exist for Switzerland. We used a network of 87 precipitation gauging stations with a 10 min temporal resolution to calculate long-term monthly mean R-factors. Stepwise generalized linear regression (GLM) and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to select spatial covariates which explain the spatial and temporal patterns of the R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The monthly R-factor is mapped by summarizing the predicted R-factor of the regression equation and the corresponding residues of the regression, which are interpolated by ordinary kriging (regression-kriging). As spatial covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included such as snow depths, a combination product of hourly precipitation measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), daily Alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD), and monthly precipitation sums (RhiresM). Topographic parameters (elevation, slope) were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of the 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed a distinct seasonality with the highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) influenced by intense rainfall events. Winter months have the lowest rainfall erosivity. A proportion of 62 % of the total annual rainfall erosivity is identified within four months only (June-September). The highest erosion risk can be expected in July, where not only rainfall erosivity but also erosivity density is high. In addition to the intra-annual temporal regime, a spatial variability of this seasonality was detectable between different regions of Switzerland. The assessment of the dynamic behavior of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of susceptible seasons and regions.

Characterization and first flush analysis in road and roof runoff in Shenyang, China.

PubMed

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Gong, Jiping; Sun, Fengyun; Xu, Yanyan

2014-01-01

As urbanization increases, urban runoff is an increasingly important component of total urban non-point source pollution. In this study, the properties of urban runoff were examined in Shenyang, in northeastern China. Runoff samples from a tiled roof, a concrete roof and a main road were analyzed for key pollutants (total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), chemical oxygen demand (COD), Pb, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn). The event mean concentration, site mean concentration, M(V) curves (dimensionless cumulative curve of pollutant load with runoff volume), and mass first flush ratio (MFF30) were used to analyze the characteristics of pollutant discharge and first flush (FF) effect. For all events, the pollutant concentration peaks occurred in the first half-hour after the runoff appeared and preceded the flow peaks. TN is the main pollutant in roof runoff. TSS, TN, TP, Pb, and Cr are the main pollutants in road runoff in Shenyang. There was a significant correlation between TSS and other pollutants except TN in runoff, which illustrated that TSS was an important carrier of organic matter and heavy metals. TN had strong positive correlations with total rainfall (Pearson's r = 0.927), average rainfall (Pearson's r = 0.995), and maximum rainfall intensity (Pearson's r = 0.991). TP had a strong correlation with rainfall intensity (Pearson's r = 0.940). A significant positive correlation between COD and rainfall duration (Pearson's r = 0.902, significance level = 0.05) was found. The order of FF intensity in different surfaces was concrete roof > tile roof > road. Rainfall duration and the length of the antecedent dry period were positively correlated with the FF. TN tended to exhibit strong flush for some events. Heavy metals showed a substantially stronger FF than other pollutant.

A global dataset of sub-daily rainfall indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Blenkinsop, S.; Guerreiro, S.; Li, X.; Barbero, R.; Chan, S.; Lenderink, G.; Westra, S.

2017-12-01

It is still uncertain how hydrological extremes will change with global warming as we do not fully understand the processes that cause extreme precipitation under current climate variability. The INTENSE project is using a novel and fully-integrated data-modelling approach to provide a step-change in our understanding of the nature and drivers of global precipitation extremes and change on societally relevant timescales, leading to improved high-resolution climate model representation of extreme rainfall processes. The INTENSE project is in conjunction with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges Project (GEWEX) Science questions. A new global sub-daily precipitation dataset has been constructed (data collection is ongoing). Metadata for each station has been calculated, detailing record lengths, missing data, station locations. A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community.

Probability analysis for consecutive-day maximum rainfall for Tiruchirapalli City (south India, Asia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabarish, R. Mani; Narasimhan, R.; Chandhru, A. R.; Suribabu, C. R.; Sudharsan, J.; Nithiyanantham, S.

2017-05-01

In the design of irrigation and other hydraulic structures, evaluating the magnitude of extreme rainfall for a specific probability of occurrence is of much importance. The capacity of such structures is usually designed to cater to the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall during its lifetime. In this study, an extreme value analysis of rainfall for Tiruchirapalli City in Tamil Nadu was carried out using 100 years of rainfall data. Statistical methods were used in the analysis. The best-fit probability distribution was evaluated for 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 days of continuous maximum rainfall. The goodness of fit was evaluated using Chi-square test. The results of the goodness-of-fit tests indicate that log-Pearson type III method is the overall best-fit probability distribution for 1-day maximum rainfall and consecutive 2-, 3-, 4-, 5- and 6-day maximum rainfall series of Tiruchirapalli. To be reliable, the forecasted maximum rainfalls for the selected return periods are evaluated in comparison with the results of the plotting position.

Heavy rain prediction using deterministic and probabilistic models - the flash flood cases of 11-13 October 2005 in Catalonia (NE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrera, A.; Altava-Ortiz, V.; Llasat, M. C.; Barnolas, M.

2007-09-01

Between the 11 and 13 October 2005 several flash floods were produced along the coast of Catalonia (NE Spain) due to a significant heavy rainfall event. Maximum rainfall achieved values up to 250 mm in 24 h. The total amount recorded during the event in some places was close to 350 mm. Barcelona city was also in the affected area where high rainfall intensities were registered, but just a few small floods occurred, thanks to the efficient urban drainage system of the city. Two forecasting methods have been applied in order to evaluate their capability of prediction regarding extreme events: the deterministic MM5 model and a probabilistic model based on the analogous method. The MM5 simulation allows analysing accurately the main meteorological features with a high spatial resolution (2 km), like the formation of some convergence lines over the region that partially explains the maximum precipitation location during the event. On the other hand, the analogous technique shows a good agreement among highest probability values and real affected areas, although a larger pluviometric rainfall database would be needed to improve the results. The comparison between the observed precipitation and from both QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) methods shows that the analogous technique tends to underestimate the rainfall values and the MM5 simulation tends to overestimate them.

Rainfall characteristics and thresholds for periglacial debris flows in the Parlung Zangbo Basin, southeast Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Mingfeng; Chen, Ningsheng; Ding, Haitao

2018-02-01

The Parlung Zangbo Basin in the southeastern Tibet Plateau is affected by the summer monsoon from the Indian Ocean, which produces large rainfall gradients in the basin. Rainfall data during 2012-2015 from five new meteorological stations are used to analyse the rainfall characteristics. The daily rainfall, rainfall duration, mean rainfall intensity, and peak rainfall intensity are consistent, but sometimes contrasting. For example, these values decrease with increasing altitude, and the gradient is large downstream and small upstream, respectively. Moreover, the rainfall intensity peaks between 01:00 and 06:00 and increases during the afternoon. Based on the analysis of 14 debris flow cases in the basin, differences in the rainfall threshold differ depending on the location as sediment varieties. The sediment in the middle portions of the basin is wet and well structured; thus, long-duration, high-intensity rainfall is required to generate debris flows. Ravels in the upstream area are arid and not well structured, and short-duration rainfall is required to trigger debris flows. Between the above two locations, either long-duration, low-intensity rainfall or short-duration, high-intensity rainfall could provoke debris flows. Clearly, differences in rainfall characteristics and rainfall thresholds that are associated with the location must be considered in debris flow monitoring and warnings.

Hydraulic properties for interrill erosion on steep slopes using a portable rainfall simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Seung Sook; Hwang, Yoonhee; Deog Park, Sang; Yun, Minu; Park, Sangyeon

2017-04-01

The hydraulic parameters for sheet flow on steep slopes have been not frequently measured because the shallow flow depth and slow flow velocity are difficult to measure. In this study hydraulic values of sheet flow were analyzed to evaluate interrill erosion on steep slopes. A portable rainfall simulator was used to conduct interrill erosion test. The kinetic energy of rainfall simulator was obtained by disdrometer being capable of measuring the drop size distribution and velocity of falling raindrops. The sheet flow velocity was determined by the taken time for a dye transferring fixed points using video images. Surface runoff discharge and sediment yield increased with increase of rainfall intensity and kinetic energy and slope steepness. Especially sediment yield was strongly correlated with sheet flow velocity. The maximum velocity of sheet flow was 2.3cm/s under rainfall intensity of 126.8mm/h and slope steepness of 53.2%. The sheet flow was laminar and subcritical flow as the flow Reynolds number and Froude number are respectively the ranges of 10 22 and 0.05 0.25. The roughness coefficient (Manning's n) for sheet flow on steep slopes was relatively large compared to them on the gentle slope. Keywords: Sheet flow velocity; Rainfall simulator; Interrill erosion; Steep slope This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIP) (No. 2015R1C1A2A01055469).

Intrastorm scale rainfall interception dynamics in a mature coniferous forest stand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iida, Shin'ichi; Levia, Delphis F.; Shimizu, Akira; Shimizu, Takanori; Tamai, Koji; Nobuhiro, Tatsuhiko; Kabeya, Naoki; Noguchi, Shoji; Sawano, Shinji; Araki, Makoto

2017-05-01

Canopy interception of rainfall is an important process in the water balance of forests. The intrastorm dynamics of canopy interception is less well understood than event scale interception. Accordingly, armed with measurements of hourly interception intensity (i) from the field, this study is among the first to examine the differences in canopy interception dynamics between the first and second halves of rainfall events to quantify dynamic storage values for a coniferous forest in Japan. At this site, experimental results demonstrated that: (1) the relationship between interception loss (I) and gross rainfall (GR) at the event scale is better explained by a parabolic curve than a linear relationship, and there is a low correlation between rainfall intensity (gr) and i; (2) the ratio of accumulated i during the first half (IF) to that of gr (GRF) was larger than the second half (IS/GRS), with no significant correlations between potential evaporation during first half (PEF) vs IF or the second half (PES) vs IS; and (3) water storage capacity was similar to the magnitude of maximum I. By emphasizing the comparison between IF and IS, this study concludes that the water storage on tree surface is more important than losses by wet canopy evaporation and splash during rain. This study also adds insights into intrastorm interception dynamics of coniferous forests which are necessary to better model and forecast interception losses.

Models for estimating daily rainfall erosivity in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yun; Yin, Shui-qing; Liu, Bao-yuan; Nearing, Mark A.; Zhao, Ying

2016-04-01

The rainfall erosivity factor (R) represents the multiplication of rainfall energy and maximum 30 min intensity by event (EI30) and year. This rainfall erosivity index is widely used for empirical soil loss prediction. Its calculation, however, requires high temporal resolution rainfall data that are not readily available in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to parameterize models suitable for estimating erosivity from daily rainfall data, which are more widely available. One-minute resolution rainfall data recorded in sixteen stations over the eastern water erosion impacted regions of China were analyzed. The R-factor ranged from 781.9 to 8258.5 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1. A total of 5942 erosive events from one-minute resolution rainfall data of ten stations were used to parameterize three models, and 4949 erosive events from the other six stations were used for validation. A threshold of daily rainfall between days classified as erosive and non-erosive was suggested to be 9.7 mm based on these data. Two of the models (I and II) used power law functions that required only daily rainfall totals. Model I used different model coefficients in the cool season (Oct.-Apr.) and warm season (May-Sept.), and Model II was fitted with a sinusoidal curve of seasonal variation. Both Model I and Model II estimated the erosivity index for average annual, yearly, and half-month temporal scales reasonably well, with the symmetric mean absolute percentage error MAPEsym ranging from 10.8% to 32.1%. Model II predicted slightly better than Model I. However, the prediction efficiency for the daily erosivity index was limited, with the symmetric mean absolute percentage error being 68.0% (Model I) and 65.7% (Model II) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency being 0.55 (Model I) and 0.57 (Model II). Model III, which used the combination of daily rainfall amount and daily maximum 60-min rainfall, improved predictions significantly, and produced a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for daily erosivity index prediction of 0.93. Thus daily rainfall data was generally sufficient for estimating annual average, yearly, and half-monthly time scales, while sub-daily data was needed when estimating daily erosivity values.

Measuring dynamic infiltration rates during rainfall of fluctuating intensity: an approach using affine Horton equations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunkerley, David

2017-04-01

It is important to develop methods for determining infiltrability and infiltration rates under conditions of fluctuating rainfall intensity, since rainfall intensity rarely remains constant. During rain of fluctuating intensity, ponding deepens and dissipates, and the drivers of soil infiltration, including sorptivity, fluctuate in value. This has been explored on dryland soils in the field, using small plots and rainfall simulation, involving repeated changes in intensity as well as short and long hiatuses in rainfall. The field area was the Fowlers Gap Arid Zone Research Station, in western NSW, Australia. The field experiments used multiple 60 minute design rainfall events that all had the same total depth and average rainfall intensity, but which included intensity bursts at various positions within the event. These were based on the character of local rainfall events in the field area. Infiltration was found from plot runoff rates measured every 2 minutes, and rainfall intensities that were adjusted by computer-controlled pumps at 1 second intervals. Data were analysed by fitting a family of affine Horton equations, all having the same final infiltrability (about 6-7 mm/h) but having initial infiltrabilities and exponential decay constants that were permitted to recover during periods of very low intensity rain, or rainfall hiatuses. Results show that the terms in the Horton equation, f0, fc, and Kf, can all be estimated from field data of the kind collected. This is a considerable advance over 'steady-state' rainfall simulation methods, which typically only allow the estimation of the final infiltrability fc. This may rarely be reached owing to the occurrence of short rainfall events, or to changing intensity under natural rainfall, that prohibits the establishment of steady-state infiltration and runoff. Importantly, this method allows a focus on the recovery of infiltrability during periods of reduced rainfall intensity. Recovery of infiltrability is shown to proceed at rates of up to 1 mm/h per minute of hiatus time, or by 20 mm/h during a 20 minute period of low rainfall intensity.

Comparison between Pludix and impact/optical disdrometers during rainfall measurement campaigns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caracciolo, Clelia; Prodi, Franco; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2006-11-01

The performances of two couples of disdrometers based on different measuring principles are compared: a classical Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer and a recently developed device, called the Pludix tested in Ferrara, Italy, and Pludix and the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) tested in Cabauw, The Netherlands. First, the measuring principles of the different instruments are presented and compared. Secondly, the performances of the two pairs of disdrometers are analysed by comparing their rain amounts with nearby tipping bucket rain gauges and the inferred drop size distributions. The most important rainfall integral parameters (e.g. rain rate and radar reflectivity) and drop size distribution parameters are also analysed and compared. The data set for Ferrara comprises 13 rainfall events, with a total of 20 mm of rainfall and a maximum rain rate of 4 mm h - 1 . The data set for Cabauw consists of 9 events, with 25-50 mm of rainfall and a maximum rain rate of 20-40 mm h - 1 . The Pludix tends to underestimate slightly the bulk rainfall variables in less intense events, whereas it tends to overestimate with respect to the other instruments in heavier events. The correspondence of the inferred drop size distributions with those measured by the other disdrometers is reasonable, particularly with the Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer. Considering that the Pludix is still in a calibration and testing phase, the reported results are encouraging. A new signal inversion algorithm, which will allow the detection of rain drops throughout the entire diameter interval between 0.3 and 7.0 mm, is under development.

Soil Texture Mediates the Response of Tree Cover to Rainfall Intensity in African Savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Case, M. F.; Staver, A. C.

2017-12-01

Global circulation models predict widespread shifts in the frequency and intensity of rainfall, even where mean annual rainfall does not change. Resulting changes in soil moisture dynamics could have major consequences for plant communities and ecosystems, but the direction of potential vegetation responses can be challenging to predict. In tropical savannas, where tree and grasses coexist, contradictory lines of evidence have suggested that tree cover could respond either positively or negatively to less frequent, more intense rainfall. Here, we analyzed remote sensing data and continental-scale soils maps to examine whether soil texture or fire could explain heterogeneous responses of savanna tree cover to intra-annual rainfall variability across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that tree cover generally increases with mean wet-season rainfall, decreases with mean wet-season rainfall intensity, and decreases with fire frequency. However, soil sand content mediates these relationships: the response to rainfall intensity switches qualitatively depending on soil texture, such that tree cover decreases dramatically with less frequent, more intense rainfall on clay soils but increases with rainfall intensity on sandy soils in semi-arid savannas. We propose potential ecohydrological mechanisms for this heterogeneous response, and emphasize that predictions of savanna vegetation responses to global change should account for interactions between soil texture and changing rainfall patterns.

Rainfall intensity effects on removal of fecal indicator bacteria from solid dairy manure applied over grass-covered soil

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The rainfall-induced removal of pathogens and microbial indicators from land-applied manure with runoff and infiltration greatly contributes to the impairment of surface and groundwater resources. It has been assumed that rainfall intensity and changes in rainfall intensity during a rainfall event d...

Three Years of TRMM Precipitation Features. Part 1; Radar, Radiometric, and Lightning Characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cecil, Daniel J.; Goodman, Steven J.; Boccippio, Dennis J.; Zipser, Edward J.; Nesbitt, Stephen W.

2004-01-01

During its first three years, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed nearly six million precipitation features. The population of precipitation features is sorted by lightning flash rate, minimum brightness temperature, maximum radar reflectivity, areal extent, and volumetric rainfall. For each of these characteristics, essentially describing the convective intensity or the size of the features, the population is broken into categories consisting of the top 0.001%, top 0.01%, top 0.1%, top 1%, top 2.4%, and remaining 97.6%. The set of 'weakest / smallest' features comprises 97.6% of the population because that fraction does not have detected lightning, with a minimum detectable flash rate 0.7 fl/min. The greatest observed flash rate is 1351 fl/min; the lowest brightness temperatures are 42 K (85-GHz) and 69 K (37- GHz). The largest precipitation feature covers 335,000 sq km and the greatest rainfall from an individual precipitation feature exceeds 2 x 10(exp 12) kg of water. There is considerable overlap between the greatest storms according to different measures of convective intensity. The largest storms are mostly independent of the most intense storms. The set of storms producing the most rainfall is a convolution of the largest and the most intense storms. This analysis is a composite of the global tropics and subtropics. Significant variability is known to exist between locations, seasons, and meteorological regimes. Such variability will be examined in Part II. In Part I, only a crude land / Ocean separation is made. The known differences in bulk lightning flash rates over land and Ocean result from at least two differences in the precipitation feature population: the frequency of occurrence of intense storms, and the magnitude of those intense storms that do occur. Even when restricted to storms with the same brightness temperature, same size, or same radar reflectivity aloft, the storms over water are considerably less likely to produce lightning than are comparable storms over land.

Three Years of TRMM Precipitation Features. Part 1; Radar, Radiometric, and Lightning Characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cecil, Daniel J.; Goodman, Steven J.; Boccippio, Dennis J.; Zipser, Edward J.; Nesbitt, Stephen W.

2005-01-01

During its first three years, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed nearly six million precipitation features. The population of precipitation features is sorted by lightning flash rate, minimum brightness temperature, maximum radar reflectivity. areal extent, and volumetric rainfall. For each of these characteristics, essentially describing the convective intensity or the size of the features, the population is broken into categories consisting of the top 0.001%, top 0.01%, top 0.1%, top 1%, top 2.4%. and remaining 97.6%. The set of weakest/smallest features composes 97.6% of the population because that fraction does not have detected lightning, with a minimum detectable flash rate of 0.7 flashes (fl) per minute. The greatest observed flash rate is 1351 fl per minute; the lowest brightness temperatures are 42 K (85 GHz) and 69 K (37 GHz). The largest precipitation feature covers 335 000 square kilometers and the greatest rainfall from an individual precipitation feature exceeds 2 x 10 kg per hour of water. There is considerable overlap between the greatest storms according to different measures of convective intensity. The largest storms are mostly independent of the most intense storms. The set of storms producing the most rainfall is a convolution of the largest and the most intense storms. This analysis is a composite of the global Tropics and subtropics. Significant variability is known to exist between locations. seasons, and meteorological regimes. Such variability will be examined in Part II. In Part I, only a crude land-ocean separation is made. The known differences in bulk lightning flash rates over land and ocean result from at least two differences in the precipitation feature population: the frequency of occurrence of intense storms and the magnitude of those intense storms that do occur. Even when restricted to storms with the same brightness temperature, same size, or same radar reflectivity aloft, the storms over water are considerably less likely to produce lightning than are comparable storms over land.

Rainfall intensification in tropical semi-arid regions: the Sahelian case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthou, G.; Lebel, T.; Vischel, T.; Quantin, G.; Sane, Y.; Ba, A.; Ndiaye, O.; Diongue-Niang, A.; Diopkane, M.

2018-06-01

An anticipated consequence of ongoing global warming is the intensification of the rainfall regimes meaning longer dry spells and heavier precipitation when it rains, with potentially high hydrological and socio-economic impacts. The semi-arid regions of the intertropical band, such as the Sahel, are facing particularly serious challenges in this respect since their population is strongly vulnerable to extreme climatic events. Detecting long term trends in the Sahelian rainfall regime is thus of great societal importance, while being scientifically challenging because datasets allowing for such detection studies are rare in this region. This study addresses this challenge by making use of a large set of daily rain gauge data covering the Sahel (defined in this study as extending from 20°W–10°E and from 11°N–18°N) since 1950, combined with an unparalleled 5 minute rainfall observations available since 1990 over the AMMA-CATCH Niger observatory. The analysis of the daily data leads to the assertion that a hydro-climatic intensification is actually taking place in the Sahel, with an increasing mean intensity of rainy days associated with a higher frequency of heavy rainfall. This leads in turn to highlight that the return to wetter annual rainfall conditions since the beginning of the 2000s—succeeding the 1970–2000 drought—is by no mean a recovery towards the much smoother regime that prevailed during the 1950s and 1960s. It also provides a vision of the contrasts existing between the West Sahel and the East Sahel, the East Sahel experiencing a stronger increase of extreme rainfall. This regional vision is complemented by a local study at sub-daily timescales carried out thanks to the 5 minute rainfall series of the AMMA-CATCH Niger observatory (12000 km2). The increasing intensity of extreme rainfall is also visible at sub-daily timescales, the annual maximum intensities have increased at an average rate of 2%–6% per decade since 1990 for timescales ranging from 5 min to 1 hour. Both visions—regional/long term/daily on the one hand, and local/27/years/sub-daily, on the other—converge to the conclusion that, rather than a rainfall recovery, the Sahel is experiencing a new era of climate extremes that roughly started at the beginning of this century.

Experimental study of overland flow resistance coefficient model of grassland based on BP neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Peng; Yang, Er; Ni, Yong Xin

2018-06-01

The overland flow resistance on grassland slope of 20° was studied by using simulated rainfall experiments. Model of overland flow resistance coefficient was established based on BP neural network. The input variations of model were rainfall intensity, flow velocity, water depth, and roughness of slope surface, and the output variations was overland flow resistance coefficient. Model was optimized by Genetic Algorithm. The results show that the model can be used to calculate overland flow resistance coefficient, and has high simulation accuracy. The average prediction error of the optimized model of test set is 8.02%, and the maximum prediction error was 18.34%.

[Characteristics of rainfall and runoff in urban drainage based on the SWMM model.

PubMed

Xiong, Li Jun; Huang, Fei; Xu, Zu Xin; Li, Huai Zheng; Gong, Ling Ling; Dong, Meng Ke

2016-11-18

The characteristics of 235 rainfall and surface runoff events, from 2009 to 2011 in a typical urban drainage area in Shanghai were analyzed by using SWMM model. The results showed that the rainfall events in the region with high occurrence frequency were characterized by small rainfall amount and low intensity. The most probably occurred rainfall had total amount less than 10 mm, or mean intensity less than 5 mm·h -1 ,or peak intensity less than 10 mm·h -1 , accounting for 66.4%, 88.8% and 79.6% of the total rainfall events, respectively. The study was of great significance to apply low-impact development to reduce runoff and non-point source pollution under condition of less rainfall amount or low mean rainfall intensity in the area. The runoff generally increased with the increase of rainfall. The threshold of regional occurring runoff was controlled by not only rainfall amount, but also mean rainfall intensity and rainfall duration. In general, there was no surface runoff when the rainfall amount was less than 2 mm. When the rainfall amount was between 2 to 4 mm and the mean rainfall intensity was below 1.6 mm·h -1 , the runoff was less than 1 mm. When the rainfall exceeded 4 mm and the mean rainfall intensity was larger than 1.6 mm·h -1 , the runoff would occur generally. Based on the results of the SWMM simulation, three regression equations that were applicable to regional runoff amount and rainfall factors were established. The adjustment R 2 of the three equations were greater than 0.97. This indicated that the equations could reflect well the relationship between runoff and rainfall variables. The results provided the basis of calculations to plan low impact development and better reduce overflow pollution in local drainage area. It also could serve as a useful reference for runoff study in similar drainage areas.

Runoff process in the Miyake-jima Island after Eruption in 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tagata, Satoshi; Itoh, Takahiro; Miyamoto, Kuniaki; Ishizuka, Tadanori

2014-05-01

Hydrological environment in a basin can be changed completely due to volcanic eruption. Huge volume of tephra was yielded due to eruptions in 2000 in the Miyake-jima Island, Japan. Hydrological monitoring was conducted at four observation sites with several hundred m2 in a basin. Those were decided by the distribution of thickness and the grain size of the tephra. Rainfall intensity was measured by a tipping bucket type raingauge and flow discharge was calculated by the over flow depth in a flow gauging weir in the monitoring. However, the runoff rate did not relate to the grain size of tephra and the thickness of tephra deposition, according to measured data of rainfall intensity and runoff discharge. Supposing that if total runoff in one rainfall event is equal to the summation of rainfall over a threshold, the value of the threshold must be the loss rainfall intensity, the value of the threshold corresponds to the infiltration for the rainfall intensity. The relationships between loss rainfall intensity and the antecedent precipitation are calculated using measured rainfall and runoff data in every rainfall event, focusing on that the antecedent precipitation before occurrence of surface runoff approximately corresponds to the water contents under the slope surface. In present study, the results obtained through data analyses are summarized as follows: (1) There are some values for the threshold values, and the loss rainfall intensity approaches to some constant value if the value of the antecedent precipitation increases. The constant value corresponds to the saturated infiltration. (2) The loss rainfall intensity must be vertical unsaturated infiltration, and observed data for water runoff can express that the runoff is given by the excess rainfall intensity more than the loss rainfall intensity. (3) There are two antecedent times for rainfall with several hours and several days, and the saturation ratio before antecedent time at four observation sites can be predicted in the range from sixty to ninety percentages by the water retention curve.

Rainfall and runoff variability in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Billi, Paolo; Fazzini, Massimiliano; Tadesse Alemu, Yonas; Ciampalini, Rossano

2014-05-01

Rainfall and river flow variability have been deeply investigated and and the impact of climate change on both is rather well known in Europe (EEA, 2012) or in other industrialized countries. Reports of international organizations (IPCC, 2012) and the scientific literature provide results and outlooks that were found contrasting and spatially incoherent (Manton et al., 2001; Peterson et al., 2002; Griffiths et al., 2003; Herath and Ratnayake, 2004) or weakened by limitation of data quality and quantity. According to IPCC (2012), in East Africa precipitation there are contrasting regional and seasonal variations and trends, though Easterling et al. (2000) and Seleshi and Camberlin (2006) report decreasing trends in heavy precipitation over parts of Ethiopia during the period 1965-2002. Literature on the impact of climate change on river flow is scarce in Africa and IPCC Technical Paper VI (IPCC, 2008) concluded that no evidence, based on instrumental records, has been found for a climate-driven globally widespread change in the magnitude/frequency of floods during the last decades (Rosenzweig et al., 2007), though increases in runoff and increased risk of flood events in East Africa are expected. Some papers have faced issues regarding rainfall and river flow variability in Ethiopia (e.g. Seleshi and Demaree, 1995; Osman and Sauerborn, 2002; Seleshi and Zanke, 2004; Meze-Hausken, 2004; Korecha and Barnston, 2006; Cheung et al., 2008) but their investigations are commonly geographically limited or used a small number of rain and flow gauges with the most recent data bound to the beginning of the last decade. In this study an attempt to depict rainfall and river flow variability, considering the longer as possible time series for the largest as possible number of meteo-stations and flow gauge evenly distributed across Ethiopia, is presented. 25 meteo-stations and 21 flow gauges with as much as possible continuous data records were selected. The length of the time series ranges between 35 to 50 and 9 to 49 years for rainfall and river flow, respectively. In order to improve the poor linear correlation model to describe rainfall gradient with altitude a simple topographic parameter is introduced capable to better depict the spatial variability of annual rainfall and its coefficient of variation. The small rains (Belg) were found to be much more unpredictable than the long, monsoon-type rains (Kiremt) and hence much more out of phase with the variation of annual precipitation amount that is significantly influenced by the Kiremt rains. In order to investigate the long term trends, rainfall anomalies were calculated as Z score for annual, Belg and Kiremt precipitation for all the stations and average values are calculated and plotted against time. The three Z trend lines obtained show no marked deviation from the mean as only an almost negligible decreasing trend is observed. Rainfall intensity in 24 hours is analyzed and the trend line of the maximum intensity averaged over the maximum value of each year recorded at each meteo-station is constructed. These data indicate a general decrease in daily rainfall intensity across Ethiopia with clear exceptions in a few selected areas. The same procedure, based on the Z scores, used to analyze rainfall variability is applied also to the river flow data and a similar result is obtained. If compared with rainfall, annual runoff shows a much wider range of variation among the study rivers. This issue is discussed and possible explanations are presented.

Weak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms.

PubMed

Hamada, Atsushi; Takayabu, Yukari N; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward J

2015-02-24

Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall has been linked to the tallest, most intense convective storms. However, the global picture of the linkage between extreme rainfall and convection remains unclear. Here we analyse an 11-year record of spaceborne precipitation radar observations and establish that a relatively small fraction of extreme convective events produces extreme rainfall rates in any region of the tropics and subtropics. Robust differences between extreme rainfall and convective events are found in the rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions, irrespective of region; most extreme rainfall events are characterized by less intense convection with intense radar echoes not extending to extremely high altitudes. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Our results demonstrate that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection.

Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES): A product of a high temporal resolution rainfall data collection in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2016-04-01

The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the (R)USLE model. The R-factor is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minutes rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years) which are not readily available at European scale. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland in order to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,541 rainfall stations in 2014 and has been updated with 134 additional stations in 2015. The interpolation of those point R-factor values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511, 801-815). The intra-annual variability of rainfall erosivity is crucial for modelling soil erosion on a monthly and seasonal basis. The monthly feature of rainfall erosivity has been added in 2015 as an advancement of REDES and the respective mean annual R-factor map. Almost 19,000 monthly R-factor values of REDES contributed to the seasonal and monthly assessments of rainfall erosivity in Europe. According to the first results, more than 50% of the total rainfall erosivity in Europe takes place in the period from June to September. The spatial patterns of rainfall erosivity have significant differences between Northern and Southern Europe as summer is the most erosive period in Central and Northern Europe and autumn in the Mediterranean area. This spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall erosivity at European scale is very important for policy makers and farmers for soil conservation, optimization of agricultural land use and natural hazards prediction. REDES is also used in combination with future rainfall data from WorldClim to run climate change scenarios. The projection of REDES combined with climate change scenarios (HADGEM2, RCP4.5) and using a robust geo-statistical model resulted in a 10-20% increase of the R-factor in Europe till 2050.

Preliminary Investigation on the Behavior of Pore Air Pressure During Rainfall Infiltration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf Mohamad Ismail, Mohd; Min, Ng Soon; Hasliza Hamzah, Nur; Hazreek Zainal Abidin, Mohd; Madun, Aziman; Tajudin, Saiful Azhar Ahmad

2018-04-01

This paper focused on the preliminary investigation of pore air pressure behaviour during rainfall infiltration in order to substantiate the mechanism of rainfall induced slope failure. The actual behaviour or pore air pressure during infiltration is yet to be clearly understood as it is regularly assumed as atmospheric. Numerical modelling of one dimensional (1D) soil column was utilized in this study to provide a preliminary insight of this highlighted uncertainty. Parametric study was performed by using rainfall intensities of 1.85 x 10-3m/s and 1.16 x 10-4m/s applied on glass beads to simulate intense and modest rainfall conditions. Analysis results show that the high rainfall intensity causes more development of pore air pressure compared to low rainfall intensity. This is because at high rainfall intensity, the rainwater cannot replace the pore air smoothly thus confining the pore air. Therefore, the effect of pore air pressure has to be taken into consideration particularly during heavy rainfall.

Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staley, Dennis; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason

2016-04-01

Population expansion into fire-prone steeplands has resulted in an increase in post-fire debris-flow risk in the western United States. Logistic regression methods for determining debris-flow likelihood and the calculation of empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation represent two common approaches for characterizing hazard and reducing risk. Logistic regression models are currently being used to rapidly assess debris-flow hazard in response to design storms of known intensities (e.g. a 10-year recurrence interval rainstorm). Empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds comprise a major component of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) debris-flow early warning system at a regional scale in southern California. However, these two modeling approaches remain independent, with each approach having limitations that do not allow for synergistic local-scale (e.g. drainage-basin scale) characterization of debris-flow hazard during intense rainfall. The current logistic regression equations consider rainfall a unique independent variable, which prevents the direct calculation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood. Regional (e.g. mountain range or physiographic province scale) rainfall intensity-duration thresholds fail to provide insight into the basin-scale variability of post-fire debris-flow hazard and require an extensive database of historical debris-flow occurrence and rainfall characteristics. Here, we present a new approach that combines traditional logistic regression and intensity-duration threshold methodologies. This method allows for local characterization of both the likelihood that a debris-flow will occur at a given rainfall intensity, the direct calculation of the rainfall rates that will result in a given likelihood, and the ability to calculate spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned areas. Our approach synthesizes the two methods by incorporating measured rainfall intensity into each model variable (based on measures of topographic steepness, burn severity and surface properties) within the logistic regression equation. This approach provides a more realistic representation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood, as likelihood values asymptotically approach zero when rainfall intensity approaches 0 mm/h, and increase with more intense rainfall. Model performance was evaluated by comparing predictions to several existing regional thresholds. The model, based upon training data collected in southern California, USA, has proven to accurately predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for other areas in the western United States not included in the original training dataset. In addition, the improved logistic regression model shows promise for emergency planning purposes and real-time, site-specific early warning. With further validation, this model may permit the prediction of spatially-explicit intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in areas where empirically derived regional thresholds do not exist. This improvement would permit the expansion of the early-warning system into other regions susceptible to post-fire debris flow.

Susceptibility and triggering scenarios at a regional scale for shallow landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gullà, G.; Antronico, L.; Iaquinta, P.; Terranova, O.

2008-07-01

The work aims at identifying susceptible areas and pluviometric triggering scenarios at a regional scale in Calabria (Italy), with reference to shallow landsliding events. The proposed methodology follows a statistical approach and uses a database linked to a GIS that has been created to support the various steps of spatial data management and manipulation. The shallow landslide predisposing factors taken into account are derived from (i) the 40-m digital terrain model of the region, an ˜ 15,075 km 2 extension; (ii) outcropping lithology; (iii) soils; and (iv) land use. More precisely, a map of the slopes has been drawn from the digital terrain model. Two kinds of covers [prevalently coarse-grained (CG cover) or fine-grained (FG cover)] were identified, referring to the geotechnical characteristics of geomaterial covers and to the lithology map; soilscapes were drawn from soil maps; and finally, the land use map was employed without any prior processing. Subsequently, the inventory maps of some shallow landsliding events, totaling more than 30,000 instabilities of the past and detected by field surveys and photo aerial restitution, were employed to calibrate the relative importance of these predisposing factors. The use of single factors (first level analysis) therefore provides three different susceptibility maps. Second level analysis, however, enables better location of areas susceptible to shallow landsliding events by crossing the single susceptibility maps. On the basis of the susceptibility map obtained by the second level analysis, five different classes of susceptibility to shallow landsliding events have been outlined over the regional territory: 8.9% of the regional territory shows very high susceptibility, 14.3% high susceptibility, 15% moderate susceptibility, 3.6% low susceptibility, and finally, about 58% very low susceptibility. Finally, the maps of two significant shallow landsliding events of the past and their related rainfalls have been utilized to identify the relevant pluviometric triggering scenarios. By using 205 daily rainfall series, different triggering pluviometric scenarios have been identified with reference to CG and FG covers: a value of 365 mm of the total rainfall of the event and/or 170 mm/d of the rainfall maximum intensity and a value of 325 mm of the total rainfall of the event and/or 158 mm/d of the rainfall maximum intensity are able to trigger shallow landsliding events for CG and FG covers, respectively. The results obtained from this study can help administrative authorities to plan future development activities and mitigation measures in shallow landslide-prone areas. In addition, the proposed methodology can be useful in managing emergency situations at a regional scale for shallow landsliding events triggered by intense rainfalls; through this approach, the susceptibility and the pluviometric triggering scenario maps will be improved by means of finer calibration of the involved factors.

Infiltration and Runoff Measurements on Steep Burned Hillslopes Using a Rainfall Simulator with Variable Rain Intensities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kinner, David A.; Moody, John A.

2008-01-01

Multiple rainfall intensities were used in rainfall-simulation experiments designed to investigate the infiltration and runoff from 1-square-meter plots on burned hillslopes covered by an ash layer of varying thickness. The 1-square-meter plots were on north- and south-facing hillslopes in an area burned by the Overland fire northwest of Boulder near Jamestown on the Front Range of Colorado. A single-nozzle, wide-angle, multi-intensity rain simulator was developed to investigate the infiltration and runoff on steep (30- to 40-percent gradient) burned hillslopes covered with ash. The simulated rainfall was evaluated for spatial variability, drop size, and kinetic energy. Fourteen rainfall simulations, at three intensities (about 20 millimeters per hour [mm/h], 35 mm/h, and 50 mm/h), were conducted on four plots. Measurements during and after the simulations included runoff, rainfall, suspended-sediment concentrations, surface ash layer thickness, soil moisture, soil grain size, soil lost on ignition, and plot topography. Runoff discharge reached a steady state within 7 to 26 minutes. Steady infiltration rates with the 50-mm/h application rainfall intensity approached 20?35 mm/h. If these rates are projected to rainfall application intensities used in many studies of burned area runoff production (about 80 mm/h), the steady discharge rates are on the lower end of measurements from other studies. Experiments using multiple rainfall intensities (three) suggest that runoff begins at rainfall intensities around 20 mm/h at the 1-square-meter scale, an observation consistent with a 10-mm/h rainfall intensity threshold needed for runoff initiation that has been reported in the literature.

Characteristics of the overflow pollution of storm drains with inappropriate sewage entry.

PubMed

Yin, Hailong; Lu, Yi; Xu, Zuxin; Li, Huaizheng; Schwegler, Benedict R

2017-02-01

To probe the overflow pollution of separate storm drains with inappropriate sewage entries, in terms of the relationship between sewage entries and the corresponding dry-weather and wet-weather overflow, the monitoring activities were conducted in a storm drainage system in the Shanghai downtown area (374 ha). In this study site, samples from inappropriately entered dry-weather sewage and the overflow due to storm pumps operation on dry-weather and wet-weather days were collected and then monitored for six water quality constituents. It was found that overflow concentrations of dry-weather period could be higher than those of wet-weather period; under wet-weather period, the overflow concentrations of storm drains were close to or even higher than that of combined sewers. Relatively strong first flush mostly occurred under heavy rain that satisfied critical rainfall amount, maximum rainfall intensity, and maximum pumping discharge, while almost no first flush effect or only weak first flush effect was found for the other rainfall events. Such phenomenon was attributed to lower in-line pipe storage as compared to that of the combined sewers, and serious sediment accumulation within the storm pipes due to sewage entry. For this kind of system, treating a continuous overflow rate is a better strategy than treating the maximum amount of early part of the overflow. Correcting the key inappropriate sewage entries into storm drains should also be focused.

Strategy for introduction of rainwater management facility considering rainfall event applied on new apartment complex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KIM, H.; Lee, D. K.; Yoo, S.

2014-12-01

As regional torrential rains become frequent due to climate change, urban flooding happens very often. That is why it is necessary to prepare for integrated measures against a wide range of rainfall. This study proposes introduction of effective rainwater management facilities to maximize the rainwater runoff reductions and recover natural water circulation for unpredictable extreme rainfall in apartment complex scale. The study site is new apartment complex in Hanam located in east of Seoul, Korea. It has an area of 7.28ha and is analysed using the EPA-SWMM and STORM model. First, it is analyzed that green infrastructure(GI) had efficiency of flood reduction at the various rainfall events and soil characteristics, and then the most effective value of variables are derived. In case of rainfall event, Last 10 years data of 15 minutes were used for analysis. A comparison between A(686mm rainfall during 22days) and B(661mm/4days) knew that soil infiltration of A is 17.08% and B is 5.48% of the rainfall. Reduction of runoff after introduction of the GI of A is 24.76% and B is 6.56%. These results mean that GI is effective to small rainfall intensity, and artificial rainwater retarding reservoir is needed at extreme rainfall. Second, set of target year is conducted for the recovery of hydrological cycle at the predevelopment. And an amount of infiltration, evaporation, surface runoff of the target year and now is analysed on the basis of land coverage, and an arrangement of LID facilities. Third, rainwater management scenarios are established and simulated by the SWMM-LID. Rainwater management facilities include GI(green roof, porous pavement, vegetative swale, ecological pond, and raingarden), and artificial rainwater. Design scenarios are categorized five type: 1)no GI, 2)conventional GI design(current design), 3)intensive GI design, 4)GI design+rainwater retarding reservoir 5)maximized rainwater retarding reservoir. Intensive GI design is to have attribute value to obtain the maximum efficiency for each GI facility with in-depth experts interviews. Climate change scenario is also used to set the capacity of the rainwater management facilities considering the extreme precipitation. These all scenarios are not only simulated for calculating the hydrological balance but analysed the cost for each scenarios effect.

Time distribution of heavy rainfall events in south west of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghassabi, Zahra; kamali, G. Ali; Meshkatee, Amir-Hussain; Hajam, Sohrab; Javaheri, Nasrolah

2016-07-01

Accurate knowledge of rainfall time distribution is a fundamental issue in many Meteorological-Hydrological studies such as using the information of the surface runoff in the design of the hydraulic structures, flood control and risk management, and river engineering studies. Since the main largest dams of Iran are in the south-west of the country (i.e. South Zagros), this research investigates the temporal rainfall distribution based on an analytical numerical method to increase the accuracy of hydrological studies in Iran. The United States Soil Conservation Service (SCS) estimated the temporal rainfall distribution in various forms. Hydrology studies usually utilize the same distribution functions in other areas of the world including Iran due to the lack of sufficient observation data. However, we first used Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model to achieve the simulated rainfall results of the selected storms on south west of Iran in this research. Then, a three-parametric Logistic function was fitted to the rainfall data in order to compute the temporal rainfall distribution. The domain of the WRF model is 30.5N-34N and 47.5E-52.5E with a resolution of 0.08 degree in latitude and longitude. We selected 35 heavy storms based on the observed rainfall data set to simulate with the WRF Model. Storm events were scrutinized independently from each other and the best analytical three-parametric logistic function was fitted for each grid point. The results show that the value of the coefficient a of the logistic function, which indicates rainfall intensity, varies from the minimum of 0.14 to the maximum of 0.7. Furthermore, the values of the coefficient B of the logistic function, which indicates rain delay of grid points from start time of rainfall, vary from 1.6 in south-west and east to more than 8 in north and central parts of the studied area. In addition, values of rainfall intensities are lower in south west of IRAN than those of observed or proposed by the SCS values in the US.

Mechanisms for Diurnal Variability of Global Tropical Rainfall Observed from TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Smith, Eric A.

2004-01-01

The behavior and various controls of diurnal variability in tropical-subtropical rainfall are investigated using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation measurements retrieved from: (1) TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), (2) Precipitation Radar (PR), and (3) TMI/PR Combined, standard level 2 algorithms for the 1998 annual cycle. Results show that the diurnal variability characteristics of precipitation are consistent for all three algorithms, providing assurance that TRMM retrievals are providing consistent estimates of rainfall variability. As anticipated, most ocean areas exhibit more rainfall at night, while over most land areas rainfall peaks during daytime ,however, various important exceptions are found. The dominant feature of the oceanic diurnal cycle is a rainfall maximum in late-evening/early-morning (LE-EM) hours, while over land the dominant maximum occurs in the mid- to late-afternoon (MLA). In conjunction with these maxima are pronounced seasonal variations of the diurnal amplitudes. Amplitude analysis shows that the diurnal pattern and its seasonal evolution are closely related to the rainfall accumulation pattern and its seasonal evolution. In addition, the horizontal distribution of diurnal variability indicates that for oceanic rainfall there is a secondary MLA maximum, co-existing with the LE-EM maximum, at latitudes dominated by large scale convergence and deep convection. Analogously, there is a preponderance for an LE-EM maximum over land, co-existing with the stronger MLA maximum, although it is not evident that this secondary continental feature is closely associated with the large scale circulation. The ocean results clearly indicate that rainfall diurnal variability associated with large scale convection is an integral part of the atmospheric general circulation.

Benefits and limitations of using the weather radar for the definition of rainfall thresholds for debris flows. Case study from Catalonia (Spain).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abancó, C.; Hürlimann, M.; Sempere, D.; Berenguer, M.

2012-04-01

Torrential processes such as debris flows or hyperconcentrated flows are fast movements formed by a mix of water and different amounts of unsorted solid material. They occur in steep torrents and suppose a high risk for the human settlements. Rainfall is the most common triggering factor for debris flows. The rainfall threshold defines the rainfall conditions that, when reached or exceeded, are likely to provoke one or more events. Many different types of empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide triggering have been defined. Direct measurements of rainfall data are normally not available from a point next to or in the surroundings of the initiation area of the landslide. For this reason, most of the thresholds published for debris flows have been established by data measured at the nearest rain gauges (often located several km far from the landslide). Only in very few cases, the rainfall data to analyse the triggering conditions of the debris flows have been obtained by weather (Doppler) radar. Radar devices present certain limitations in mountainous regions due to undesired reboots, but their main advantage is that radar data can be obtained for any point of the territory. The objective of this work was to test the use of the weather radar data for the definition of rainfall thresholds for debris-flow triggering. Thus, rainfall data obtained from 3 to 5 rain gauges and from radar were compared for a dataset of events occurred in Catalonia (Spain). The goal was to determine in which cases the description of the rainfall episode (in particular the maximum intensity) had been more accurate. The analysed dataset consists of: 1) three events occurred in the Rebaixader debris-flow monitoring station (Axial Pyrenees) including two hyperconcentrated flows and one debris flow; 2) one debris-flow event occurred in the Port Ainé ski resort (Axial Pyrenees); 3) one debris-flow event in Montserrat (Mediterranean Coastal range). The comparison of the hyetographs from the different devices showed that the reliability of the radar is higher for short, high intensity storms more than for long lasting, medium intensity ones. Additionally, the best fit corresponds to the situations where the storm nucleus is located near the source area of the debris flow. The results of the comparison between different rain gauges show similar trends. The ones located in the same valley as the debris flow usually show good results, but if there are orographic elements in-between the debris-flow torrent and the rain gauge or the distance is large, the results can imply a great error in the definition of rainfall intensity. Therefore, we can state that the reliability of the use of the weather radar to define rainfall thresholds is strongly depending on the type of the storm and the distance between the source area and the nucleus of the storm.

Simulation of infiltration and redistribution of intense rainfall using Land Surface Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Anna; Verhoef, Anne; Cloke, Hannah

2016-04-01

Flooding from intense rainfall (FFIR) can cause widespread damage and disruption. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models provide distributed information about atmospheric conditions, such as precipitation, that can lead to a flooding event. Short duration, high intensity rainfall events are generally poorly predicted by NWP models, because of the high spatiotemporal resolution required and because of the way the convective rainfall is described in the model. The resolution of NWP models is ever increasing. Better understanding of complex hydrological processes and the effect of scale is important in order to improve the prediction of magnitude and duration of such events, in the context of disaster management. Working as part of the NERC SINATRA project, we evaluated how the Land Surface Model (LSM) components of NWP models cope with high intensity rainfall input and subsequent infiltration problems. Both in terms of the amount of water infiltrated in the soil store, as well as the timing and the amount of surface and subsurface runoff generated. The models investigated are SWAP (Soil Water Air Plant, Alterra, the Netherlands, van Dam 1997), JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator a component of Unified Model in UK Met Office, Best et al. 2011) and CHTESSEL (Carbon and Hydrology- Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land, Balsamo et al. 2009) We analysed the numerical aspects arising from discontinuities (or sharp gradients) in forcing and/or the model solution. These types of infiltration configurations were tested in the laboratory (Vachaud 1971), for some there are semi-analytical solutions (Philip 1957, Parlange 1972, Vanderborght 2005) or reference numerical solutions (Haverkamp 1977, van Dam 2000, Vanderborght 2005). The maximum infiltration by the surface, Imax, is in general dependent on atmospheric conditions, surface type, soil type, soil moisture content θ, and surface orographic factor σ. The models used differ in their approach to describe and deal with this top boundary condition definition. All three LSMs discretise the spatial derivative in the Richards equation (∂/∂z) using central finite differences, which is a 2nd order method, that according to Godunov's theorem is non-monotone. It is prone to producing non-physical oscillations in the solution. We performed a mesh and timestep dependence study for hypothetical soil columns and showed the presence of the oscillations in Jules and SWAP solutions. We also investigated the rainfall/runoff partition and redistribution in case of intense rainfall using these three models.

Flood risk reduction and flow buffering as ecosystem services - Part 2: Land use and rainfall intensity effects in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Noordwijk, Meine; Tanika, Lisa; Lusiana, Betha

2017-05-01

Watersheds buffer the temporal pattern of river flow relative to the temporal pattern of rainfall. This ecosystem service is inherent to geology and climate, but buffering also responds to human use and misuse of the landscape. Buffering can be part of management feedback loops if salient, credible and legitimate indicators are used. The flow persistence parameter Fp in a parsimonious recursive model of river flow (Part 1, van Noordwijk et al., 2017) couples the transmission of extreme rainfall events (1 - Fp), to the annual base-flow fraction of a watershed (Fp). Here we compare Fp estimates from four meso-scale watersheds in Indonesia (Cidanau, Way Besai and Bialo) and Thailand (Mae Chaem), with varying climate, geology and land cover history, at a decadal timescale. The likely response in each of these four to variation in rainfall properties (including the maximum hourly rainfall intensity) and land cover (comparing scenarios with either more or less forest and tree cover than the current situation) was explored through a basic daily water-balance model, GenRiver. This model was calibrated for each site on existing data, before being used for alternative land cover and rainfall parameter settings. In both data and model runs, the wet-season (3-monthly) Fp values were consistently lower than dry-season values for all four sites. Across the four catchments Fp values decreased with increasing annual rainfall, but specific aspects of watersheds, such as the riparian swamp (peat soils) in Cidanau reduced effects of land use change in the upper watershed. Increasing the mean rainfall intensity (at constant monthly totals for rainfall) around the values considered typical for each landscape was predicted to cause a decrease in Fp values by between 0.047 (Bialo) and 0.261 (Mae Chaem). Sensitivity of Fp to changes in land use change plus changes in rainfall intensity depends on other characteristics of the watersheds, and generalisations made on the basis of one or two case studies may not hold, even within the same climatic zone. A wet-season Fp value above 0.7 was achievable in forest-agroforestry mosaic case studies. Inter-annual variability in Fp is large relative to effects of land cover change. Multiple (5-10) years of paired-plot data would generally be needed to reject no-change null hypotheses on the effects of land use change (degradation and restoration). Fp trends over time serve as a holistic scale-dependent performance indicator of degrading/recovering watershed health and can be tested for acceptability and acceptance in a wider social-ecological context.

Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staley, Dennis M.; Negri, Jacquelyn A.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme L.; Tillery, Anne C.; Youberg, Ann M.

2017-02-01

Early warning of post-fire debris-flow occurrence during intense rainfall has traditionally relied upon a library of regionally specific empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds. Development of this library and the calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds often require several years of monitoring local rainfall and hydrologic response to rainstorms, a time-consuming approach where results are often only applicable to the specific region where data were collected. Here, we present a new, fully predictive approach that utilizes rainfall, hydrologic response, and readily available geospatial data to predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned locations in the western United States. Unlike the traditional approach to defining regional thresholds from historical data, the proposed methodology permits the direct calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for areas where no such data exist. The thresholds calculated by this method are demonstrated to provide predictions that are of similar accuracy, and in some cases outperform, previously published regional intensity-duration thresholds. The method also provides improved predictions of debris-flow likelihood, which can be incorporated into existing approaches for post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment. Our results also provide guidance for the operational expansion of post-fire debris-flow early warning systems in areas where empirically defined regional rainfall intensity-duration thresholds do not currently exist.

Runoff Response to Rainfall in Small Catchments Burned by the 2015 Valley Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenbrenner, J. W.; Coe, D. B. R.; Lindsay, D.

2016-12-01

Burned areas often produce runoff volumes and peak flows much larger than unburned forests. However, very few studies demonstrate the effect of burn severity on runoff responses, and post-fire data are especially sparse in California. We measured the effects of different degrees of burn severity on rainfall-runoff responses in six small catchments (0.15-0.65 ha) in the Northern Coast Ranges. Weirs and tipping bucket rain gages were installed after the 2015 Valley Fire and prior to any substantial rainfall. In the first wet season (Nov 2015-May 2016), one runoff event was recorded in the catchment with the lowest burn severity (42% bare soil), while 13 runoff events occurred in the catchment with the highest burn severity (68% bare soil). Preliminary results indicate the thirty minute maximum rainfall intensity that generated runoff ranged from 27 mm hr-1 in the lowest severity catchment to only 8.6 mm hr-1 in the highest severity catchment. Peak flow rates for the most intense event (27 mm hr-1), a two-year, 30-min storm, were 1.1 m3 s-1 km-2 in the lowest severity catchment and 17 m3 s-1 km-2 in the highest severity catchment. Longer duration, moderate intensity rain events produced runoff in the highest severity catchments but not the lowest severity catchments. These results are on the high end of the range of post-fire peak flow rates reported in the western US and provide an idea of potential post-fire flood potential to land and emergency management agencies.

Relating Convective and Stratiform Rain to Latent Heating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen; Zeng, Xiping; Shige, Shoichi; Takayabu, Yukari

2010-01-01

The relationship among surface rainfall, its intensity, and its associated stratiform amount is established by examining observed precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR). The results show that for moderate-high stratiform fractions, rain probabilities are strongly skewed toward light rain intensities. For convective-type rain, the peak probability of occurrence shifts to higher intensities but is still significantly skewed toward weaker rain rates. The main differences between the distributions for oceanic and continental rain are for heavily convective rain. The peak occurrence, as well as the tail of the distribution containing the extreme events, is shifted to higher intensities for continental rain. For rainy areas sampled at 0.58 horizontal resolution, the occurrence of conditional rain rates over 100 mm/day is significantly higher over land. Distributions of rain intensity versus stratiform fraction for simulated precipitation data obtained from cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations are quite similar to those from the satellite, providing a basis for mapping simulated cloud quantities to the satellite observations. An improved convective-stratiform heating (CSH) algorithm is developed based on two sources of information: gridded rainfall quantities (i.e., the conditional intensity and the stratiform fraction) observed from the TRMM PR and synthetic cloud process data (i.e., latent heating, eddy heat flux convergence, and radiative heating/cooling) obtained from CRM simulations of convective cloud systems. The new CSH algorithm-derived heating has a noticeably different heating structure over both ocean and land regions compared to the previous CSH algorithm. Major differences between the new and old algorithms include a significant increase in the amount of low- and midlevel heating, a downward emphasis in the level of maximum cloud heating by about 1 km, and a larger variance between land and ocean in the new CSH algorithm.

The experimental study of hydrodynamic characteristics of the overland flow on a slope with three-dimensional Geomat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guang-yue; Sun, Guo-rui; Li, Jian-kang; Li, Jiong

2018-02-01

The hydrodynamic characteristics of the overland flow on a slope with a three-dimensional Geomat are studied for different rainfall intensities and slope gradients. The rainfall intensity is adjusted in the rainfall simulation system. It is shown that the velocity of the overland flow has a strong positive correlation with the slope length and the rainfall intensity, the scour depth decreases with the increase of the slope gradient for a given rainfall intensity, and the scour depth increases with the increase of the rainfall intensity for a given slope gradient, the overland flow starts with a transitional flow on the top and finishes with a turbulent flow on the bottom on the slope with the three-dimensional Geomat for different rainfall intensities and slope gradients, the resistance coefficient and the turbulent flow Reynolds number are in positively related logarithmic functions, the resistance coefficient and the slope gradient are in positively related power functions, and the trend becomes leveled with the increase of the rainfall intensity. This study provides some important theoretical insight for further studies of the hydrodynamic process of the erosion on the slope surface with a three-dimensional Geomat.

A framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure in mitigating urban flood hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, Jochen E.; Burns, Matthew J.; Fletcher, Tim D.; Sanders, Brett F.

2017-10-01

This research outlines a framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure (GI) performance in mitigating flood hazard in small urban catchments. The urban hydrologic modeling tool (MUSIC) is coupled with a fine resolution 2D hydrodynamic model (BreZo) to test to what extent retrofitting an urban watershed with GI, rainwater tanks and infiltration trenches in particular, can propagate flood management benefits downstream and support intuitive flood hazard maps useful for communicating and planning with communities. The hydrologic and hydraulic models are calibrated based on current catchment conditions, then modified to represent alternative GI scenarios including a complete lack of GI versus a full implementation of GI. Flow in the hydrologic/hydraulic models is forced using a range of synthetic rainfall events with annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) between 1-63% and durations from 10 min to 24 h. Flood hazard benefits mapped by the framework include maximum flood depths and extents, flow intensity (m2/s), flood duration, and critical storm duration leading to maximum flood conditions. Application of the system to the Little Stringybark Creek (LSC) catchment shows that across the range of AEPs tested and for storm durations equal or less than 3 h, presently implemented GI reduces downstream flooded area on average by 29%, while a full implementation of GI would reduce downstream flooded area on average by 91%. A full implementation of GI could also lower maximum flow intensities by 83% on average, reducing the drowning hazard posed by urban streams and improving the potential for access by emergency responders. For storm durations longer than 3 h, a full implementation of GI lacks the capacity to retain the resulting rainfall depths and only reduces flooded area by 8% and flow intensity by 5.5%.

Relating rainfall characteristics to cloud top temperatures at different scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Cornelia; Belušić, Danijel; Taylor, Christopher

2017-04-01

Extreme rainfall from mesoscale convective systems (MCS) poses a threat to lives and livelihoods of the West African population through increasingly frequent devastating flooding and loss of crops. However, despite the significant impact of such extreme events, the dominant processes favouring their occurrence are still under debate. In the data-sparse West African region, rainfall radar data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) gives invaluable information on the distribution and frequency of extreme rainfall. The TRMM 2A25 product provides a 15-year dataset of snapshots of surface rainfall from 2-4 overpasses per day. Whilst this sampling captures the overall rainfall characteristics, it is neither long nor frequent enough to diagnose changes in MCS properties, which may be linked to the trend towards rainfall intensification in the region. On the other hand, Meteosat geostationary satellites provide long-term sub-hourly records of cloud top temperatures, raising the possibility of combining these with the high-quality rainfall data from TRMM. In this study, we relate TRMM 2A25 rainfall to Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) cloud top temperatures, which are available from 2004 at 15 minutes intervals, to get a more detailed picture of the structure of intense rainfall within the life cycle of MCS. We find TRMM rainfall intensities within an MCS to be strongly coupled with MSG cloud top temperatures: the probability for extreme rainfall increases from <10% for minimum temperatures warmer than -40°C to over 70% when temperatures drop below -70°C, confirming the potential in analysing cloud-top temperatures as a proxy for extreme rain. The sheer size of MCS raises the question which scales of sub-cloud structures are more likely to be associated with extreme rain than others. In the end, this information could help to associate scale changes in cloud top temperatures with processes that affect the probability of extreme rain. We use 2D continuous wavelets to decompose cloud top temperatures into power spectra at scales between 15 and 200km. From these, cloud sub-structures are identified as circular areas of respective scale with local power maxima in their centre. These areas are then mapped onto coinciding TRMM rainfall, allowing us to assign rainfall fields to sub-cloud features of different scales. We find a higher probability for extreme rainfall for cloud features above a scale of 30km, with features 100km contributing most to the number of extreme rainfall pixels. Over the average diurnal cycle, the number of smaller cloud features between 15-60km shows an increase between 15 - 1700UTC, gradually developing into larger ones. The maximum of extreme rainfall pixels around 1900UTC coincides with a peak for scales 100km, suggesting a dominant role of these scales for intense rain for the analysed cloud type. Our results demonstrate the suitability of 2D wavelet decomposition for the analysis of sub-cloud structures and their relation to rainfall characteristics, and help us to understand long-term changes in the properties of MCS.

Assessment of the GPM and TRMM Precipitation Products Using the Rain Gauge Network over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Sijia; Wang, Donghai; Qin, Zhengkun; Zheng, Yaoyao; Guo, Jianping

2018-04-01

Using high-quality hourly observations from national-level ground-based stations, the satellite-based rainfall products from both the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated MultisatellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and its predecessor, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), are statistically evaluated over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), with an emphasis on the diurnal variation. The results indicate that: (1) the half-hourly IMERG rainfall product can explicitly describe the diurnal variation over the TP, but with discrepancies in the timing of the greatest precipitation intensity and an overestimation of the maximum rainfall intensity over the whole TP. In addition, the performance of IMERG on the hourly timescale, in terms of the correlation coefficient and relative bias, is different for regions with sea level height below or above 3500 m; (2) the IMERG products, having higher correlation and lower root-mean-square error, perform better than the TMPA products on the daily and monthly timescales; and (3) the detection ability of IMERG is superior to that of TMPA, as corroborated by a higher Hanssen and Kuipers score, a higher probability of detection, a lower false alarm ratio, and a lower bias. Compared to TMPA, the IMERG products ameliorate the overestimation across the TP. In conclusion, GPM IMERG is superior to TRMM TMPA over the TP on multiple timescales.

Stochastic characteristics of different duration annual maximum rainfall and its spatial difference in China based on information entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Sang, Y. F.

2017-12-01

Mountain torrents, urban floods and other disasters caused by extreme precipitation bring great losses to the ecological environment, social and economic development, people's lives and property security. So there is of great significance to floods prevention and control by the study of its spatial distribution. Based on the annual maximum rainfall data of 60min, 6h and 24h, the paper generate long sequences following Pearson-III distribution, and then use the information entropy index to study the spatial distribution and difference of different duration. The results show that the information entropy value of annual maximum rainfall in the south region is greater than that in the north region, indicating more obvious stochastic characteristics of annual maximum rainfall in the latter. However, the spatial distribution of stochastic characteristics is different in different duration. For example, stochastic characteristics of 60min annual maximum rainfall in the Eastern Tibet is smaller than surrounding, but 6h and 24h annual maximum rainfall is larger than surrounding area. In the Haihe River Basin and the Huaihe River Basin, the stochastic characteristics of the 60min annual maximum rainfall was not significantly different from that in the surrounding area, and stochastic characteristics of 6h and 24h was smaller than that in the surrounding area. We conclude that the spatial distribution of information entropy values of annual maximum rainfall in different duration can reflect the spatial distribution of its stochastic characteristics, thus the results can be an importantly scientific basis for the flood prevention and control, agriculture, economic-social developments and urban flood control and waterlogging.

What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Kaiyu; Sultan, Benjamin; Biasutti, Michela; Baron, Christian; Lobell, David B.

2015-10-01

How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500 mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa.

Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Chan; Wu, Peili; Zhang, Lixia; Song, Lianchun

2016-12-01

Global warming increases the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and consequently the potential risks of extreme rainfall. Here we show that maximum hourly summer rainfall intensity has increased by about 11.2% on average, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971-2013 from 721 weather stations in China. The corresponding event accumulated precipitation has on average increased by more than 10% aided by a small positive trend in events duration. Linear regression of the 95th percentile daily precipitation intensity with daily mean surface air temperature shows a negative scaling of -9.6%/K, in contrast to a positive scaling of 10.6%/K for hourly data. This is made up of a positive scaling below the summer mean temperature and a negative scaling above. Using seasonal means instead of daily means, we find a consistent scaling rate for the region of 6.7-7%/K for both daily and hourly precipitation extremes, about 10% higher than the regional Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 6.1%/K based on a mean temperature of 24.6 °C. With up to 18% further increase in extreme precipitation under continuing global warming towards the IPCC’s 1.5 °C target, risks of flash floods will exacerbate on top of the current incapability of urban drainage systems in a rapidly urbanizing China.

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall Events in the South of France Using EURO-CORDEX Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luu, L. N.; Vautard, R.; Yiou, P.

2017-12-01

The Mediterranean region regularly undergoes episodes of intense precipitation in the fall season that exceed 300mm a day. This study focuses on the role of climate change on the dynamics of the events that occur in the South of France. We used an ensemble of 10 EURO-CORDEX model simulations with two horizontal resolutions (EUR-11: 0.11° and EUR-44: 0.44°) for the attribution of extreme rainfall in the fall in the Cevennes mountain range (South of France). The biases of the simulations were corrected with simple scaling adjustment and a quantile correction (CDFt). This produces five datasets including EUR-44 and EUR-11 with and without scaling adjustment and CDFt-EUR-11, on which we test the impact of resolution and bias correction on the extremes. Those datasets, after pooling all of models together, are fitted by a stationary Generalized Extreme Value distribution for several periods to estimate a climate change signal in the tail of distribution of extreme rainfall in the Cévenne region. Those changes are then interpreted by a scaling model that links extreme rainfall with mean and maximum daily temperature. The results show that higher-resolution simulations with bias adjustment provide a robust and confident increase of intensity and likelihood of occurrence of autumn extreme rainfall in the area in current climate in comparison with historical climate. The probability (exceedance probability) of 1-in-1000-year event in historical climate may increase by a factor of 1.8 under current climate with a confident interval of 0.4 to 5.3 following the CDFt bias-adjusted EUR-11. The change of magnitude appears to follow the Clausius-Clapeyron relation that indicates a 7% increase in rainfall per 1oC increase in temperature.

Use of radar QPE for the derivation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves in a range of climatic regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marra, Francesco; Morin, Efrat

2015-12-01

Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are widely used in flood risk management because they provide an easy link between the characteristics of a rainfall event and the probability of its occurrence. Weather radars provide distributed rainfall estimates with high spatial and temporal resolutions and overcome the scarce representativeness of point-based rainfall for regions characterized by large gradients in rainfall climatology. This work explores the use of radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for the identification of IDF curves over a region with steep climatic transitions (Israel) using a unique radar data record (23 yr) and combined physical and empirical adjustment of the radar data. IDF relationships were derived by fitting a generalized extreme value distribution to the annual maximum series for durations of 20 min, 1 h and 4 h. Arid, semi-arid and Mediterranean climates were explored using 14 study cases. IDF curves derived from the study rain gauges were compared to those derived from radar and from nearby rain gauges characterized by similar climatology, taking into account the uncertainty linked with the fitting technique. Radar annual maxima and IDF curves were generally overestimated but in 70% of the cases (60% for a 100 yr return period), they lay within the rain gauge IDF confidence intervals. Overestimation tended to increase with return period, and this effect was enhanced in arid climates. This was mainly associated with radar estimation uncertainty, even if other effects, such as rain gauge temporal resolution, cannot be neglected. Climatological classification remained meaningful for the analysis of rainfall extremes and radar was able to discern climatology from rainfall frequency analysis.

Predicting rainfall erosivity by momentum and kinetic energy in Mediterranean environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carollo, Francesco G.; Ferro, Vito; Serio, Maria A.

2018-05-01

Rainfall erosivity is an index that describes the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion and it is used around the world for assessing and predicting soil loss on agricultural lands. Erosivity can be represented in terms of both rainfall momentum and kinetic energy, both calculated per unit time and area. Contrasting results on the representativeness of these two variables are available: some authors stated that momentum and kinetic energy are practically interchangeable in soil loss estimation while other found that kinetic energy is the most suitable expression of rainfall erosivity. The direct and continuous measurements of momentum and kinetic energy by a disdrometer allow also to establish a relationship with rainfall intensity at the study site. At first in this paper a comparison between the momentum-rainfall intensity relationships measured at Palermo and El Teularet by an optical disdrometer is presented. For a fixed rainfall intensity the measurements showed that the rainfall momentum values measured at the two experimental sites are not coincident. However both datasets presented a threshold value of rainfall intensity over which the rainfall momentum assumes a quasi-constant value. Then the reliability of a theoretically deduced relationship, linking momentum, rainfall intensity and median volume diameter, is positively verified using measured raindrop size distributions. An analysis to assess which variable, momentum or kinetic energy per unit area and time, is the best predictor of erosivity in Italy and Spain was also carried out. This investigation highlighted that the rainfall kinetic energy per unit area and time can be substituted by rainfall momentum as index for estimating the rainfall erosivity, and this result does not depend on the site where precipitation occurs. Finally, rainfall intensity measurements and soil loss data collected from the bare plots equipped at Sparacia experimental area were used to verify the reliability of some rainfall erosivity indices and their ability to distinguish the type of involved soil erosion processes.

Extreme rainfall events in karst environments: the case study of September 2014 in the Gargano area (southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinotti, Maria Elena; Pisano, Luca; Trabace, Maria; Marchesini, Ivan; Peruccacci, Silvia; Rossi, Mauro; Amoruso, Giuseppe; Loiacono, Pierluigi; Vennari, Carmela; Vessia, Giovanna; Parise, Mario; Brunetti, Maria Teresa

2015-04-01

In the first week of September 2014, the Gargano Promontory (Apulia, SE Italy) was hit by an extreme rainfall event that caused several landslides, floods and sinkholes. As a consequence of the floods, two people lost their lives and severe socio-economic damages were reported. The highest peaks of rainfall were recorded between September 3rd and 6th at the Cagnano Varano and San Marco in Lamis rain gauges with a maximum daily rainfall (over 230 mm) that is about 30% the mean annual rainfall. The Gargano Promontory is characterized by complex orographic conditions, with the highest elevation of about 1000 m a.s.l. The geological setting consists of different types of carbonate deposits affected by intensive development of karst processes. The morphological and climatic settings of the area, associated with frequent extreme rainfall events can cause various types of geohazards (e.g., landslides, floods, sinkholes). A further element enhancing the natural predisposition of the area to the occurrence of landslides, floods and sinkholes is an intense human activity, characterized by an inappropriate land use and management. In order to obtain consistent and reliable data on the effects produced by the storm, a systematic collection of information through field observations, a critical analysis of newspaper articles and web-news, and a co-operation with the Regional Civil Protection and local geologists started immediately after the event. The information collected has been organized in a database including the location, the occurrence time and the type of geohazard documented with photographs. The September 2014 extreme rainfall event in the Gargano Promontory was also analyzed to validate the forecasts issued by the Italian national early-warning system for rainfall-induced landslides (SANF), developed by the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection (IRPI) for the Italian national Department for Civil Protection (DPC). SANF compares rainfall measurements and forecasts with empirical rainfall thresholds for the prediction of landslide occurrence. SANF forecasts were compared to the documented landslides and discussed.

[Characteristics of nutrient loss by runoff in sloping arable land of yellow-brown under different rainfall intensities].

PubMed

Chen, Ling; Liu, De-Fu; Song, Lin-Xu; Cui, Yu-Jie; Zhang, Gei

2013-06-01

In order to investigate the loss characteristics of N and P through surface flow and interflow under different rainfall intensities, a field experiment was conducted on the sloping arable land covered by typical yellow-brown soils inXiangxi River watershed by artificial rainfall. The results showed that the discharge of surface flow, total runoff and sediment increased with the increase of rain intensity, while the interflow was negatively correlated with rain intensity under the same total rainfall. TN, DN and DP were all flushed at the very beginning in surface flow underdifferent rainfall intensities; TP fluctuated and kept consistent in surface flow without obvious downtrend. While TN, DN and DP in interflow kept relatively stable in the whole runoff process, TP was high at the early stage, then rapidly decreased with time and kept steady finally. P was directly influenced by rainfall intensity, its concentration in the runoff increased with the increase of the rainfall intensity, the average concentration of N and P both exceeded the threshold of eutrophication of freshwater. The higher the amount of P loss was, the higher the rain intensity. The change of N loss was the opposite. The contribution rate of TN loss carried by surface flow increased from 36.5% to 57.6% with the increase of rainfall intensity, but surface flow was the primary form of P loss which contributed above 90.0%. Thus, it is crucial to control interflow in order to reduce N loss. In addition, measures should be taken to effectively manage soil erosion to mitigate P loss. The proportion of dissolved nitrogen in surface flow elevated with the decrease of rainfall intensity, but in interflow, dissolved form was predominant. P was exported mainly in the form of particulate under different rainfall intensities and runoff conditions.

The contribution of tropical cyclones to rainfall in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agustín Breña-Naranjo, J.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Pozos-Estrada, Oscar; Jiménez-López, Salma A.; López-López, Marco R.

Investigating the contribution of tropical cyclones to the terrestrial water cycle can help quantify the benefits and hazards caused by the rainfall generated from this type of hydro-meteorological event. Rainfall induced by tropical cyclones can enhance both flood risk and groundwater recharge, and it is therefore important to characterise its minimum, mean and maximum contributions to a region or country's water balance. This work evaluates the rainfall contribution of tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes across Mexico from 1998 to 2013 using the satellite-derived precipitation dataset TMPA 3B42. Additionally, the sensitivity of rainfall to other datasets was assessed: the national rain gauge observation network, real-time satellite rainfall and a merged product that combines rain gauges with non-calibrated space-borne rainfall measurements. The lower Baja California peninsula had the highest contribution from cyclonic rainfall in relative terms (∼40% of its total annual rainfall), whereas the contributions in the rest of the country showed a low-to-medium dependence on tropical cyclones, with mean values ranging from 0% to 20%. In quantitative terms, southern regions of Mexico can receive more than 2400 mm of cyclonic rainfall during years with significant TC activity. Moreover, (a) the number of tropical cyclones impacting Mexico has been significantly increasing since 1998, but cyclonic contributions in relative and quantitative terms have not been increasing, and (b) wind speed and rainfall intensity during cyclones are not highly correlated. Future work should evaluate the impacts of such contributions on surface and groundwater hydrological processes and connect the knowledge gaps between the magnitude of tropical cyclones, flood hazards, and economic losses.

High-Resolution Rainfall From Radar Reflectivity and Terrestrial Rain Gages for use in Estimating Debris-Flow Susceptibility in the Day Fire, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanshaw, M. N.; Schmidt, K. M.; Jorgensen, D. P.; Stock, J. D.

2007-12-01

Constraining the distribution of rainfall is essential to evaluating the post-fire mass-wasting response of steep soil-mantled landscapes. As part of a pilot early-warning project for flash floods and debris flows, NOAA deployed a portable truck-mounted Shared Mobile Atmospheric Research and Teaching Radar (SMART-R) to the 2006 Day fire in the Transverse Ranges of Southern California. In conjunction with a dense array of ground- based instruments, including 8 tipping-bucket rain gages located within an area of 170 km2, this C-band mobile Doppler radar provided 200-m grid cell estimates of precipitation data at fine temporal and spatial scales in burned steeplands at risk from hazardous flash floods and debris flows. To assess the utility of using this data in process models for flood and debris flow initiation, we converted grids of radar reflectivity to hourly time-steps of precipitation using an empirical relationship for convective storms, sampling the radar data at the locations of each rain gage as determined by GPS. The SMART-R was located 14 km from the farthest rain gage, but <10 km away from our intensive research area, where 5 gages are located within <1-2 km of each other. Analyses of the nine storms imaged by radar throughout the 2006/2007 winter produced similar cumulative rainfall totals between the gages and their SMART-R grid location over the entire season which correlate well on the high side, with gages recording the most precipitation agreeing to within 11% of the SMART-R. In contrast, on the low rainfall side, totals between the two recording systems are more variable, with a 62% variance between the minimums. In addition, at the scale of individual storms, a correlation between ground-based rainfall measurements and radar-based rainfall estimates is less evident, with storm totals between the gages and the SMART-R varying between 7 and 88%, a possible result of these being relatively small, fast-moving storms in an unusually dry winter. The SMART-R also recorded higher seasonal cumulative rainfall than the terrestrial gages, perhaps indicating that not all precipitation reached the ground. For one storm in particular, time-lapse photographs of the ground document snow. This could explain, in part, the discrepancy between storm-specific totals when the rain gages recorded significantly lower totals than the SMART-R. For example, during the storm where snow was observed, the SMART-R recorded a maximum of 66% higher rainfall than the maximum recorded by the gages. Unexpectedly, the highest elevation gage, located in a pre-fire coniferous vegetation community, consistently recorded the lowest precipitation, whereas gages in the lower elevation pre- fire chaparral community recorded the highest totals. The spatial locations of the maximum rainfall inferred by the SMART-R and the terrestrial gages are also offset by 1.6 km, with terrestrial values shifted easterly. The observation that the SMART-R images high rainfall intensities recorded by rain gages suggests that this technology has the ability to quantitatively estimate the spatial distribution over larger areas at a high resolution. Discrepancies on the storm scale, however, need to be investigated further, but we are optimistic that such high resolution data from the SMART-R and the terrestrial gages may lead to the effective application of a prototype debris-flow warning system where such processes put lives at risk.

Bias correction method for climate change impact assessment at a basin scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyunt, C.; Jaranilla-sanchez, P. A.; Yamamoto, A.; Nemoto, T.; Kitsuregawa, M.; Koike, T.

2012-12-01

Climate change impact studies are mainly based on the general circulation models GCM and these studies play an important role to define suitable adaptation strategies for resilient environment in a basin scale management. For this purpose, this study summarized how to select appropriate GCM to decrease the certain uncertainty amount in analysis. This was applied to the Pampanga, Angat and Kaliwa rivers in Luzon Island, the main island of Philippine and these three river basins play important roles in irrigation water supply, municipal water source for Metro Manila. According to the GCM scores of both seasonal evolution of Asia summer monsoon and spatial correlation and root mean squared error of atmospheric variables over the region, finally six GCM is chosen. Next, we develop a complete, efficient and comprehensive statistical bias correction scheme covering extremes events, normal rainfall and frequency of dry period. Due to the coarse resolution and parameterization scheme of GCM, extreme rainfall underestimation, too many rain days with low intensity and poor representation of local seasonality have been known as bias of GCM. Extreme rainfall has unusual characteristics and it should be focused specifically. Estimated maximum extreme rainfall is crucial for planning and design of infrastructures in river basin. Developing countries have limited technical, financial and management resources for implementing adaptation measures and they need detailed information of drought and flood for near future. Traditionally, the analysis of extreme has been examined using annual maximum series (AMS) adjusted to a Gumbel or Lognormal distribution. The drawback is the loss of the second, third etc, largest rainfall. Another approach is partial duration series (PDS) constructed using the values above a selected threshold and permit more than one event per year. The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) has been used to model PDS and it is the series of excess over a threshold. In this study, the lowest value of AMS of observed is selected as threshold and simultaneously same frequency is considered as extremes in corresponding GCM gridded series. After fitting to GP distribution, bias corrected GCM extreme is found by using the inverse function of observed extremes. The results show it can remove bias effectively. For projected climate, the same transfer function between historical observed and GCM was applied. Moreover, frequency analysis of maximum extreme intensity estimation was done for validation and then approximate for near future by using identical function as past. To fix the error in the number of no rain days of GCM, ranking order statistics is used and define in GCM same as the frequency of wet days in observed station. After this rank, GCM output will be zero and identify same threshold for future projection. Normal rainfall is classified as between threshold of extreme and no rain day. We assume monthly normal rainfall follow gamma distribution. Then, we mapped the CDF of GCM normal rainfall to station's one in each month and bias corrected rainfall is available. In summary, bias of GCM have been addressed efficiently and validated at point scale by seasonal climatology and at all stations for evaluating downscaled rainfall performance. The results show bias corrected and downscaled scheme is good enough for climate impact study.

The Influence of the East Asian Winter Monsoon on Indonesian Rainfall During the Past 60,000 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konecky, B. L.; Russell, J. M.; Vogel, H.; Bijaksana, S.; Huang, Y.

2013-12-01

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) invigorates the oceanic-atmospheric circulation in the tropics, with far-reaching climate impacts that extend into the high latitudes. A growing number of deglacial proxy reconstructions from the Maritime Continent and its surrounding seas have revealed the importance of both high- and low-latitude climate processes to IPWP rainfall during the deglaciation and the Holocene. However, few records extend beyond the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), making it difficult to assess regional rainfall characteristics and monsoon interactions under the glacial/interglacial boundary conditions of the Pleistocene. Proxy reconstructions of the oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition of rainfall (δ18O/δDprecip) have proven useful in understanding millennial to orbital scale changes in the climate of the Maritime Continent, but the tendency for δ18O/δDprecip in this region to reflect regional and/or remote climate processes has highlighted the need to reconstruct δ18O/δDprecip alongside independent proxies for continental rainfall amount. Here we present a reconstruction of δDprecip using leaf wax compounds preserved in the sediments of Lake Towuti, Central Sulawesi, from 60,000 years before present (kyr BP) to today. Our δDprecip reconstruction provides a precipitation isotopic counterpart to multi-proxy geochemical reconstructions of surface hydrology and vegetation characteristics from the same sediment cores, enabling for the first time an independent assessment of both continental rainfall intensity and δDprecip from this region on glacial/interglacial timescales. We find that orbital-scale variations in δDprecip and rainfall intensity are strongly tied to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), which is an important contributor to the band of convection over the Maritime Continent during austral summer. Unlike today, however, severely dry conditions in Central Sulawesi during the Last Glacial Maximum were accompanied by a strengthened EAWM and D-depleted precipitation. In contrast, wet conditions in Central Sulawesi during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) and during the early Holocene occurred when the EAWM was weakened. These findings support previous inferences based on Australian data that glacial boundary conditions modified the relationship between the EAWM and the Australian-Indonesian Summer Monsoon (AISM). However, previously proposed mechanisms for this modified EAWM/AISM relationship are not sufficient to explain our observations in Indonesia, and must be expanded. We propose revisions to these mechanisms in order to explain observations of Indonesian rainfall and δDprecip. Our findings provide important context for the circulation patterns that drove rainfall variations in Central Sulawesi during the past 60 kyr, and help to reconcile some of the disagreements among late Pleistocene records of surface runoff and δ18O/δDprecip from the IPWP region.

High-resolution stochastic generation of extreme rainfall intensity for urban drainage modelling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

Urban drainage response is highly dependent on the spatial and temporal structure of rainfall. Therefore, measuring and simulating rainfall at a high spatial and temporal resolution is a fundamental step to fully assess urban drainage system reliability and related uncertainties. This is even more relevant when considering extreme rainfall events. However, the current space-time rainfall models have limitations in capturing extreme rainfall intensity statistics for short durations. Here, we use the STREAP (Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) model, which is a novel stochastic rainfall generator for simulating high-resolution rainfall fields that preserve the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall and its statistical characteristics. The model enables a generation of rain fields at 102 m and minute scales in a fast and computer-efficient way matching the requirements for hydrological analysis of urban drainage systems. The STREAP model was applied successfully in the past to generate high-resolution extreme rainfall intensities over a small domain. A sub-catchment in the city of Luzern (Switzerland) was chosen as a case study to: (i) evaluate the ability of STREAP to disaggregate extreme rainfall intensities for urban drainage applications; (ii) assessing the role of stochastic climate variability of rainfall in flow response and (iii) evaluate the degree of non-linearity between extreme rainfall intensity and system response (i.e. flow) for a small urban catchment. The channel flow at the catchment outlet is simulated by means of a calibrated hydrodynamic sewer model.

Simulation of climate characteristics and extremes of the Volta Basin using CCLM and RCA regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darko, Deborah; Adjei, Kwaku A.; Appiah-Adjei, Emmanuel K.; Odai, Samuel N.; Obuobie, Emmanuel; Asmah, Ruby

2018-06-01

The extent to which statistical bias-adjusted outputs of two regional climate models alter the projected change signals for the mean (and extreme) rainfall and temperature over the Volta Basin is evaluated. The outputs from two regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Africa (CORDEX-Africa) are bias adjusted using the quantile mapping technique. Annual maxima rainfall and temperature with their 10- and 20-year return values for the present (1981-2010) and future (2051-2080) climates are estimated using extreme value analyses. Moderate extremes are evaluated using extreme indices (viz. percentile-based, duration-based, and intensity-based). Bias adjustment of the original (bias-unadjusted) models improves the reproduction of mean rainfall and temperature for the present climate. However, the bias-adjusted models poorly reproduce the 10- and 20-year return values for rainfall and maximum temperature whereas the extreme indices are reproduced satisfactorily for the present climate. Consequently, projected changes in rainfall and temperature extremes were weak. The bias adjustment results in the reduction of the change signals for the mean rainfall while the mean temperature signals are rather magnified. The projected changes for the original mean climate and extremes are not conserved after bias adjustment with the exception of duration-based extreme indices.

Simulated sensitivity of African terrestrial ecosystem photosynthesis to rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Kaiyu; Good, Stephen P.; Caylor, Kelly K.; Medvigy, David; Pan, Ming; Wood, Eric F.; Sato, Hisashi; Biasutti, Michela; Chen, Min; Ahlström, Anders; Xu, Xiangtao

2018-02-01

There is growing evidence of ongoing changes in the statistics of intra-seasonal rainfall variability over large parts of the world. Changes in annual total rainfall may arise from shifts, either singly or in a combination, of distinctive intra-seasonal characteristics -i.e. rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and rainfall seasonality. Understanding how various ecosystems respond to the changes in intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics is critical for predictions of future biome shifts and ecosystem services under climate change, especially for arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Here, we use an advanced dynamic vegetation model (SEIB-DGVM) coupled with a stochastic rainfall/weather simulator to answer the following question: how does the productivity of ecosystems respond to a given percentage change in the total seasonal rainfall that is realized by varying only one of the three rainfall characteristics (rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length)? We conducted ensemble simulations for continental Africa for a realistic range of changes (-20% ~ +20%) in total rainfall amount. We find that the simulated ecosystem productivity (measured by gross primary production, GPP) shows distinctive responses to the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics. Specifically, increase in rainfall frequency can lead to 28% more GPP increase than the same percentage increase in rainfall intensity; in tropical woodlands, GPP sensitivity to changes in rainy season length is ~4 times larger than to the same percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity. In contrast, shifts in the simulated biome distribution are much less sensitive to intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics than they are to total rainfall amount. Our results reveal three major distinctive productivity responses to seasonal rainfall variability—‘chronic water stress’, ‘acute water stress’ and ‘minimum water stress’ - which are respectively associated with three broad spatial patterns of African ecosystem physiognomy, i.e. savannas, woodlands, and tropical forests.

Stochastic generation of hourly rainstorm events in Johor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nojumuddin, Nur Syereena; Yusof, Fadhilah; Yusop, Zulkifli

2015-02-03

Engineers and researchers in water-related studies are often faced with the problem of having insufficient and long rainfall record. Practical and effective methods must be developed to generate unavailable data from limited available data. Therefore, this paper presents a Monte-Carlo based stochastic hourly rainfall generation model to complement the unavailable data. The Monte Carlo simulation used in this study is based on the best fit of storm characteristics. Hence, by using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Anderson Darling goodness-of-fit test, lognormal appeared to be the best rainfall distribution. Therefore, the Monte Carlo simulation based on lognormal distribution was usedmore » in the study. The proposed model was verified by comparing the statistical moments of rainstorm characteristics from the combination of the observed rainstorm events under 10 years and simulated rainstorm events under 30 years of rainfall records with those under the entire 40 years of observed rainfall data based on the hourly rainfall data at the station J1 in Johor over the period of 1972–2011. The absolute percentage error of the duration-depth, duration-inter-event time and depth-inter-event time will be used as the accuracy test. The results showed the first four product-moments of the observed rainstorm characteristics were close with the simulated rainstorm characteristics. The proposed model can be used as a basis to derive rainfall intensity-duration frequency in Johor.« less

Mathematical model of sediment and solute transport along slope land in different rainfall pattern conditions

PubMed Central

Tao, Wanghai; Wu, Junhu; Wang, Quanjiu

2017-01-01

Rainfall erosion is a major cause of inducing soil degradation, and rainfall patterns have a significant influence on the process of sediment yield and nutrient loss. The mathematical models developed in this study were used to simulate the sediment and nutrient loss in surface runoff. Four rainfall patterns, each with a different rainfall intensity variation, were applied during the simulated rainfall experiments. These patterns were designated as: uniform-type, increasing-type, increasing- decreasing -type and decreasing-type. The results revealed that changes in the rainfall intensity can have an appreciable impact on the process of runoff generation, but only a slight effect on the total amount of runoff generated. Variations in the rainfall intensity in a rainfall event not only had a significant effect on the process of sediment yield and nutrient loss, but also the total amount of sediment and nutrient produced, and early high rainfall intensity may lead to the most severe erosion and nutrient loss. In this study, the calculated data concur with the measured values. The model can be used to predict the process of surface runoff, sediment transport and nutrient loss associated with different rainfall patterns. PMID:28272431

Relationships between Rainy Days, Mean Daily Intensity, and Seasonal Rainfall over the Koyna Catchment during 1961–2005

PubMed Central

Nandargi, S.; Mulye, S. S.

2012-01-01

There are limitations in using monthly rainfall totals in studies of rainfall climatology as well as in hydrological and agricultural investigations. Variations in rainfall may be considered to result from frequency changes in the daily rainfall of the respective regime. In the present study, daily rainfall data of the stations inside the Koyna catchment has been analysed for the period of 1961–2005 to understand the relationship between the rain and rainy days, mean daily intensity (MDI) and seasonal rainfall over the catchment on monthly as well as seasonal scale. Considering the topographical location of the catchment, analysis of seasonal rainfall data of 8 stations suggests that a linear relationship fits better than the logarithmic relationship in the case of seasonal rainfall versus mean daily intensity. So far as seasonal rainfall versus number of rainy days is considered, the logarithmic relationship is found to be better. PMID:22654646

The influence of sea surface temperature on the intensity and associated storm surge of tropical cyclone Yasi: a sensitivity study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavender, Sally L.; Hoeke, Ron K.; Abbs, Deborah J.

2018-03-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) result in widespread damage associated with strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge. TC Yasi was one of the most powerful TCs to impact the Queensland coast since records began. Prior to Yasi, the SSTs in the Coral Sea were higher than average by 1-2 °C, primarily due to the 2010/2011 La Niña event. In this study, a conceptually simple idealised sensitivity analysis is performed using a high-resolution regional model to gain insight into the influence of SST on the track, size, intensity and associated rainfall of TC Yasi. A set of nine simulations with uniform SST anomalies of between -4 and 4 °C applied to the observed SSTs are analysed. The resulting surface winds and pressure are used to force a barotropic storm surge model to examine the influence of SST on the associated storm surge of TC Yasi. An increase in SST results in an increase in intensity, precipitation and integrated kinetic energy of the storm; however, there is little influence on track prior to landfall. In addition to an increase in precipitation, there is a change in the spatial distribution of precipitation as the SST increases. Decreases in SSTs result in an increase in the radius of maximum winds due to an increase in the asymmetry of the storm, although the radius of gale-force winds decreases. These changes in the TC characteristics also lead to changes in the associated storm surge. Generally, cooler (warmer) SSTs lead to reduced (enhanced) maximum storm surges. However, the increase in surge reaches a maximum with an increase in SST of 2 °C. Any further increase in SST does not affect the maximum surge but the total area and duration of the simulated surge increases with increasing upper ocean temperatures. A large decrease in maximum storm surge height occurs when a negative SST anomaly is applied, suggesting if TC Yasi had occurred during non-La Niña conditions the associated storm surge may have been greatly diminished, with a decrease in storm surge height of over 3 m when the SST is reduced by 2 °C. In summary, increases in SST lead to an increase in the potential destructiveness of TCs with regard to intensity, precipitation and storm surge, although this relationship is not linear.

Changes in intensity of precipitation extremes in Romania on very hight temporal scale and implications on the validity of the Clausius-Clapeyron relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busuioc, Aristita; Baciu, Madalina; Breza, Traian; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Stoica, Cerasela; Baghina, Nina

2016-04-01

Many observational, theoretical and based on climate model simulation studies suggested that warmer climates lead to more intense precipitation events, even when the total annual precipitation is slightly reduced. In this way, it was suggested that extreme precipitation events may increase at Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate under global warming and constraint of constant relative humidity. However, recent studies show that the relationship between extreme rainfall intensity and atmospheric temperature is much more complex than would be suggested by the CC relationship and is mainly dependent on precipitation temporal resolution, region, storm type and whether the analysis is conducted on storm events rather than fixed data. The present study presents the dependence between the very hight temporal scale extreme rainfall intensity and daily temperatures, with respect to the verification of the CC relation. To solve this objective, the analysis is conducted on rainfall event rather than fixed interval using the rainfall data based on graphic records including intensities (mm/min.) calculated over each interval with permanent intensity per minute. The annual interval with available a such data (April to October) is considered at 5 stations over the interval 1950-2007. For Bucuresti-Filaret station the analysis is extended over the longer interval (1898-2007). For each rainfall event, the maximum intensity (mm/min.) is retained and these time series are considered for the further analysis (abbreviated in the following as IMAX). The IMAX data were divided based on the daily mean temperature into bins 2oC - wide. The bins with less than 100 values were excluded. The 90th, 99th and 99.9th percentiles were computed from the binned data using the empirical distribution and their variability has been compared to the CC scaling (e.g. exponential relation given by a 7% increase per temperature degree rise). The results show a dependence close to double the CC relation for temperatures less than ~ 220C and negative scaling rates for higher temperatures. This behaviour is similar for all the 5 analysed stations over the common interval 1950-2007. This scaling is more exactly for the 90th percentile, while for the higher percentiles the rainfall intensity in response to warming exceeds sometimes the CC rate. For Bucuresti-Filaret station, the results are similar over a longer interval (1898-2007) showing that these findings are robust. Similar techniques has been previously applied to the hourly rainfall intensities recorded at 9 stations (including the 5 ones) and the results are slightly different: the 90th percentile shows dependence close to the CC relation for all temperatures; the 99th and 99.9th percentiles exhibit rates close to double the CC rate for temperatures between ~ 100C and ~ 220C and negative scaling rates for higher temperatures. In conclusion, these results show that the dependence between the extreme precipitation intensity and atmospheric temperature in Romania is mainly dependent on the temporal precipitation resolution and the degree of the extreme precipitation event (moderate or stronger); these findings are mainly in agreenment with the conclusions presented by previous international studies (mentioned above), with some regional specific features, showing the importance of the regional studies. The results presented is this study were funded by the Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI) through the research project CLIMHYDEX, "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania", code PNII-ID-2011-2-0073 (http://climhydex.meteoromania.ro).

Rainfall intensity effects on removal of fecal indicator bacteria from solid dairy manure applied over grass-covered soil.

PubMed

Blaustein, Ryan A; Hill, Robert L; Micallef, Shirley A; Shelton, Daniel R; Pachepsky, Yakov A

2016-01-01

The rainfall-induced release of pathogens and microbial indicators from land-applied manure and their subsequent removal with runoff and infiltration precedes the impairment of surface and groundwater resources. It has been assumed that rainfall intensity and changes in intensity during rainfall do not affect microbial removal when expressed as a function of rainfall depth. The objective of this work was to test this assumption by measuring the removal of Escherichia coli, enterococci, total coliforms, and chloride ion from dairy manure applied in soil boxes containing fescue, under 3, 6, and 9cmh(-1) of rainfall. Runoff and leachate were collected at increasing time intervals during rainfall, and post-rainfall soil samples were taken at 0, 2, 5, and 10cm depths. Three kinetic-based models were fitted to the data on manure-constituent removal with runoff. Rainfall intensity appeared to have positive effects on rainwater partitioning to runoff, and removal with this effluent type occurred in two stages. While rainfall intensity generally did not impact the parameters of runoff-removal models, it had significant, inverse effects on the numbers of bacteria remaining in soil after rainfall. As rainfall intensity and soil profile depth increased, the numbers of indicator bacteria tended to decrease. The cumulative removal of E. coli from manure exceeded that of enterococci, especially in the form of removal with infiltration. This work may be used to improve the parameterization of models for bacteria removal with runoff and to advance estimations of depths of bacteria removal with infiltration, both of which are critical to risk assessment of microbial fate and transport in the environment. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Descriptive Statistics and Cluster Analysis for Extreme Rainfall in Java Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E Komalasari, K.; Pawitan, H.; Faqih, A.

2017-03-01

This study aims to describe regional pattern of extreme rainfall based on maximum daily rainfall for period 1983 to 2012 in Java Island. Descriptive statistics analysis was performed to obtain centralization, variation and distribution of maximum precipitation data. Mean and median are utilized to measure central tendency data while Inter Quartile Range (IQR) and standard deviation are utilized to measure variation of data. In addition, skewness and kurtosis used to obtain shape the distribution of rainfall data. Cluster analysis using squared euclidean distance and ward method is applied to perform regional grouping. Result of this study show that mean (average) of maximum daily rainfall in Java Region during period 1983-2012 is around 80-181mm with median between 75-160mm and standard deviation between 17 to 82. Cluster analysis produces four clusters and show that western area of Java tent to have a higher annual maxima of daily rainfall than northern area, and have more variety of annual maximum value.

Contribution of raindrop impact to the change of soil physical properties and water erosion under semi-arid rainfalls.

PubMed

Vaezi, Ali Reza; Ahmadi, Morvarid; Cerdà, Artemi

2017-04-01

Soil erosion by water is a three-phase process that consists of detachment of soil particles from the soil mass, transportation of detached particles either by raindrop impact or surface water flow, and sedimentation. Detachment by raindrops is a key component of the soil erosion process. However, little information is available on the role of raindrop impact on soil losses in the semi-arid regions where vegetation cover is often poor and does not protect the soil from rainfall. The objective of this study is to determine the contribution of raindrop impact to changes in soil physical properties and soil losses in a semiarid weakly-aggregated agricultural soil. Soil losses were measured under simulated rainfalls of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70mmh -1 , and under two conditions: i) with raindrop impact; and, ii) without raindrop impact. Three replications at each rainfall intensity and condition resulted in a total of 42 microplots of 1m×1.4m installed on a 10% slope according to a randomized complete block design. The contribution of raindrop impact to soil loss was computed using the difference between soil loss with raindrop impact and without raindrop impact at each rainfall intensity. Soil physical properties (aggregate size, bulk density and infiltration rate) were strongly damaged by raindrop impact as rainfall intensity increased. Soil loss was significantly affected by rainfall intensity under both soil surface conditions. The contribution of raindrop impact to soil loss decreased steadily with increasing rainfall intensity. At the lower rainfall intensities (20-30mmh -1 ), raindrop impact was the dominant factor controlling soil loss from the plots (68%) while at the higher rainfall intensities (40-70mmh -1 ) soil loss was mostly affected by increasing runoff discharge. At higher rainfall intensities the sheet flow protected the soil from raindrop impact. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydro-Geological Hazard Temporal Evolution during the last seven decades in the Solofrana River Basin—Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longobardi, Antonia; Diodato, Nazzareno; Mobilia, Mirka

2017-04-01

Extremes precipitation events are frequently associated to natural disasters falling within the broad spectrum of multiple damaging hydrological events (MDHEs), defined as the simultaneously triggering of different types of phenomena, such as landslides and floods. The power of the rainfall (duration, magnitude, intensity), named storm erosivity, is an important environmental indicator of multiple damaging hydrological phenomena. At the global scale, research interest is actually devoted to the investigation of non-stationary features of extreme events, and consequently of MDHEs, which appear to be increasing in frequency and severity. The Mediterranean basin appears among the most vulnerable regions with an expected increase in occurring damages of about 100% by the end of the century. A high concentration of high magnitude and short duration rainfall events are, in fact, responsible for the largest rainfall erosivity and erosivity density values within Europe. The aim of the reported work is to investigate the relationship between the temporal evolution of severe geomorphological events and combined precipitation indices as a tool to improve understanding the hydro-geological hazard at the catchment scale. The case study is the Solofrana river basin, Southern Italy, which has been seriously and consistently in time affected by natural disasters. Data for about 45 MDH events, spanning on a decadal scale 1951-2014, have been collected and analyzed for this purpose. A preliminary monthly scale analysis of event occurrences highlights a pronounced seasonal characterization of the phenomenon, as about 60% of the total number of reported events take place during the period from September to November. Following, a statistical analysis clearly indicates a significant increase in the frequency of occurrences of MDHEs during the last decades. Such an increase appears to be related to non-stationary features of an average catchment scale rainfall-runoff erosivity index, which combines maximum monthly, maximum daily, and a proxy of maximum hourly precipitation data. The main findings of the reported study relate to the fact that climate evolving tendencies do not appear significant in most of the cases and that MDHEs occurred within the studied catchment also for rainfall events of very moderate intensity and/or severity. The illustrated results seems to indicate that climate variability has not assumed the main role in the large number of damaging event, and that the relative increase hazardous hydro-geological events in the last decade, is instead most likely caused by incorrect urban planning policies.

Future changes in Asian summer monsoon precipitation extremes as inferred from 20-km AGCM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lui, Yuk Sing; Tam, Chi-Yung; Lau, Ngar-Cheung

2018-04-01

This study examines the impacts of climate change on precipitation extremes in the Asian monsoon region during boreal summer, based on simulations from the 20-km Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model. The model can capture the summertime monsoon rainfall, with characteristics similar to those from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation. By comparing the 2075-2099 with the present-day climate simulations, there is a robust increase of the mean rainfall in many locations due to a warmer climate. Over southeastern China, the Baiu rainband, Bay of Bengal and central India, extreme precipitation rates are also enhanced in the future, which can be inferred from increases of the 95th percentile of daily precipitation, the maximum accumulated precipitation in 5 consecutive days, the simple daily precipitation intensity index, and the scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution. In these regions, with the exception of the Baiu rainband, most of these metrics give a fractional change of extreme rainfall per degree increase of the lower-tropospheric temperature of 5 to 8.5% K-1, roughly consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, over the Baiu area extreme precipitation change scales as 3.5% K-1 only. We have also stratified the rainfall data into those associated with tropical cyclones (TC) and those with other weather systems. The AGCM gives an increase of the accumulated TC rainfall over southeastern China, and a decrease in southern Japan in the future climate. The latter can be attributed to suppressed TC occurrence in southern Japan, whereas increased accumulated rainfall over southeastern China is due to more intense TC rain rate under global warming. Overall, non-TC weather systems are the main contributor to enhanced precipitation extremes in various locations. In the future, TC activities over southeastern China tend to further exacerbate the precipitation extremes, whereas those in the Baiu region lead to weaker changes of these extremes.

Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Zulkarnain; Haidir, Ahmad; Saad, Farah Naemah Mohd; Ayob, Afizah; Rahim, Mustaqqim Abdul; Ghazaly, Zuhayr Md.

2018-03-01

The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015) data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM), as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM). Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

Exploratory analysis of rainfall events in Coimbra, Portugal: variability of raindrop characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, S. C. P.; de Lima, M. I. P.; de Lima, J. L. M. P.

2012-04-01

Laser disdrometers can monitor efficiently rainfall characteristics at small temporal scales, providing data on rain intensity, raindrop diameter and fall speed, and raindrop counts over time. This type of data allows for the increased understanding of the rainfall structure at small time scales. Of particular interest for many hydrological applications is the characterization of the properties of extreme events, including the intra-event variability, which are affected by different factors (e.g. geographical location, rainfall generating mechanisms). These properties depend on the microphysical, dynamical and kinetic processes that interact to produce rain. In this study we explore rainfall data obtained during two years with a laser disdrometer installed in the city of Coimbra, in the centre region of mainland Portugal. The equipment was developed by Thies Clima. The data temporal resolution is one-minute. Descriptive statistics of time series of raindrop diameter (D), fall speed, kinetic energy, and rain rate were studied at the event scale; for different variables, the average, maximum, minimum, median, variance, standard deviation, quartile, coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis were determined. The empirical raindrop size distribution, N(D), was also calculated. Additionally, the parameterization of rainfall was attempted by investigating the applicability of different theoretical statistical distributions to fit the empirical data (e.g. exponential, gamma and lognormal distributions). As expected, preliminary results show that rainfall properties and structure vary with rainfall type and weather conditions over the year. Although only two years were investigated, already some insight into different rain events' structure was obtained.

Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2018-01-01

Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

Characteristics of Landslide Size Distribution in Response to Different Rainfall Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y.; Lan, H.; Li, L.

2017-12-01

There have long been controversies on the characteristics of landslide size distribution in response to different rainfall scenarios. For inspecting the characteristics, we have collected a large amount of data, including shallow landslide inventory with landslide areas and landslide occurrence times recorded, and a longtime daily rainfall series fully covering all the landslide occurrences. Three indexes were adopted to quantitatively describe the characteristics of landslide-related rainfall events, which are rainfall duration, rainfall intensity, and the number of rainy days. The first index, rainfall duration, is derived from the exceptional character of a landslide-related rainfall event, which can be explained in terms of the recurrence interval or return period, according to the extreme value theory. The second index, rainfall intensity, is the average rainfall in this duration. The third index is the number of rainy days in this duration. These three indexes were normalized using the standard score method to ensure that they are in the same order of magnitude. Based on these three indexes, landslide-related rainfall events were categorized by a k-means method into four scenarios: moderate rainfall, storm, long-duration rainfall, and long-duration intermittent rainfall. Then, landslides were in turn categorized into four groups according to the scenarios of rainfall events related to them. Inverse-gamma distribution was applied to characterize the area distributions of the four different landslide groups. A tail index and a rollover of the landslide size distribution can be obtained according to the parameters of the distribution. Characteristics of landslide size distribution show that the rollovers of the size distributions of landslides related to storm and long-duration rainfall are larger than those of landslides in the other two groups. It may indicate that the location of rollover may shift right with the increase of rainfall intensity and the extension of rainfall duration. In addition, higher rainfall intensities are prone to trigger larger rainfall-induced landslides since the tail index of landslide area distribution are smaller for higher rainfall intensities, which indicate higher probabilities of large landslides.

[Characteristics of soil phosphorus runoff under different rainfall intensities in the typical vegetable plot of Taihu Basin].

PubMed

Yang, Li-Xia; Yang, Gui-Shan; Yuan, Shao-Feng; Wu, Ye

2007-08-01

Experiments of field runoff plots, which were conducted at vegetable plots in Hongsheng town of Wuxi city--the typical region of Taihu Basin, were designed to assess the effects of different rainfall intensities on soil phosphorus runoff loss from vegetable plots by artificial rainfall simulations. Results showed that there was a relationship of power function between initial runoff-generation time and rainfall intensity. Runoff amount slowly increased under small rainfall intensity, but rapidly increased with rainfall intensity increase. The concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) and particulate phosphorus (PP) were higher at the early stage, then gradually decreased with time and finally reached a comparative steady stage under 0.83, 1.17 and 1.67 mm x min(-1). However they indicated no obvious trend except wavy undulation under 2.50 mm x min(-1). In the course of rainfall-runoff, dissolved phosphorus (DP) gently varied and accounted for 20% - 32% of TP. PP was 68% - 80% of TP and its change trend was consistent with TP. Therefore, PP was main loss form of soil phosphorus runoff. Comparison of different phosphorous loss rate under different rainfall intensities suggested that loss rate of TP and DP under 2.50 mm x min(-1) was 20 times and 33 times higher than that under 0.83 mm x min(-1), which showed that loss rate of PP and DP increased with the increase of rainfall intensities. Results indicated that lots of inorganic dissolved phosphorus (DIP) of phosphorous fertilizer was discharged into water environment by using fertilizer in soil surface before rainfall, which increased loss of DP and greatly aggravated degree of water eutrophication.

Symbiotic soil fungi enhance ecosystem resilience to climate change.

PubMed

Martínez-García, Laura B; De Deyn, Gerlinde B; Pugnaire, Francisco I; Kothamasi, David; van der Heijden, Marcel G A

2017-12-01

Substantial amounts of nutrients are lost from soils through leaching. These losses can be environmentally damaging, causing groundwater eutrophication and also comprise an economic burden in terms of lost agricultural production. More intense precipitation events caused by climate change will likely aggravate this problem. So far it is unresolved to which extent soil biota can make ecosystems more resilient to climate change and reduce nutrient leaching losses when rainfall intensity increases. In this study, we focused on arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, common soil fungi that form symbiotic associations with most land plants and which increase plant nutrient uptake. We hypothesized that AM fungi mitigate nutrient losses following intensive precipitation events (higher amount of precipitation and rain events frequency). To test this, we manipulated the presence of AM fungi in model grassland communities subjected to two rainfall scenarios: moderate and high rainfall intensity. The total amount of nutrients lost through leaching increased substantially with higher rainfall intensity. The presence of AM fungi reduced phosphorus losses by 50% under both rainfall scenarios and nitrogen losses by 40% under high rainfall intensity. Thus, the presence of AM fungi enhanced the nutrient interception ability of soils, and AM fungi reduced the nutrient leaching risk when rainfall intensity increases. These findings are especially relevant in areas with high rainfall intensity (e.g., such as the tropics) and for ecosystems that will experience increased rainfall due to climate change. Overall, this work demonstrates that soil biota such as AM fungi can enhance ecosystem resilience and reduce the negative impact of increased precipitation on nutrient losses. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Carbaryl washoff from soybean plants.

PubMed

Willis, G H; Smith, S; McDowell, L L; Southwick, L M

1996-08-01

Both the efficacy and fate of most foliar-applied pesticides may be affected by weather variables, especially rain. A multiple-intensity rainfall simulator was used to determine the effects of rainfall intensity and amount on concentrations of carbaryl (Sevin(R) XLS Plus) washed from soybean plants. Two hours after carbaryl was applied at 1.12 kg/ha, 25 mm of rain was applied at intensities of 13.0, 27.4, 53.8, or 105.1 mm/h. About 67% of the carbaryl on the plants was washed off by 25 mm of rain. Rainfall intensity affected carbaryl concentrations in washoff; higher concentrations occurred at lower intensities. Even though the experimental conditions were designed for "worst-case" conditions, washoff patterns suggested improved carbaryl rainfastness when compared to carbaryl (formulated as a wettable powder) washoff from cotton plants in earlier studies. Rainfall amount had a greater effect on carbaryl concentrations in washoff than rainfall intensity.

Comparison between intensity- duration thresholds and cumulative rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagomarsino, Daniela; Rosi, Ascanio; Rossi, Guglielmo; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo

2014-05-01

This work makes a quantitative comparison between the results of landslide forecasting obtained using two different rainfall threshold models, one using intensity-duration thresholds and the other based on cumulative rainfall thresholds in an area of northern Tuscany of 116 km2. The first methodology identifies rainfall intensity-duration thresholds by means a software called MaCumBA (Massive CUMulative Brisk Analyzer) that analyzes rain-gauge records, extracts the intensities (I) and durations (D) of the rainstorms associated with the initiation of landslides, plots these values on a diagram, and identifies thresholds that define the lower bounds of the I-D values. A back analysis using data from past events can be used to identify the threshold conditions associated with the least amount of false alarms. The second method (SIGMA) is based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering: the statistical distribution of the rainfall series is analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) are used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. The name of the model, SIGMA, reflects the central role of the standard deviations in the proposed methodology. The definition of intensity-duration rainfall thresholds requires the combined use of rainfall measurements and an inventory of dated landslides, whereas SIGMA model can be implemented using only rainfall data. These two methodologies were applied in an area of 116 km2 where a database of 1200 landslides was available for the period 2000-2012. The results obtained are compared and discussed. Although several examples of visual comparisons between different intensity-duration rainfall thresholds are reported in the international literature, a quantitative comparison between thresholds obtained in the same area using different techniques and approaches is a relatively undebated research topic.

The exceptionally wet year of 2014 over Greece: a statistical and synoptical-atmospheric analysis over the region of Thessaloniki

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolika, Konstantia; Maheras, Panagiotis; Anagnostopoulou, Christina

2018-05-01

The highest rainfall totals (912.2 mm) and the largest number of raindays (133 days), since 1958, were recorded in Thessaloniki during the year of 2014. Extreme precipitation heights were also observed on a seasonal, monthly and daily basis. The examined year presented the highest daily rainfall intensity, the maximum daily precipitation and the largest number of heavy precipitation days (greater than 10 mm), and it also exceeded the previous amounts of precipitation of very wet (95th percentile) and extremely wet (99th percentile) days. According to the automatic circulation type classification scheme that was used, it was found that during this exceptionally wet year, the frequency of occurrence of cyclonic types at the near surface geopotential level increases, while the same types decreased at a higher atmospheric level (500 hPa). The prevailing type was type C which is located at the centre of the study area (Greece), but several other cyclonic types changed during this year not only their frequency but also their percentage of rainfall as well as their daily precipitation intensity. It should be highlighted that these findings differentiated on the seasonal-scale analysis. Moreover, out of the three teleconnection patterns that were examined (Scandinavian Pattern, Eastern Mediterranean Teleconnection Pattern and North Sea-Caspian Pattern), the Scandinavian one (SCAND) was detected during the most of the months of 2014 meaning that it was highly associated with intense precipitation over Greece.

Response of Tropical Forests to Intense Climate Variability and Rainfall Anomaly over the Last Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saatchi, S.; Asefi, S.

2012-04-01

During the last decade, strong precipitation anomalies resulted from increased sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic, have caused extensive drying trends in rainforests of western Amazonia, exerting water stress, tree mortality, biomass loss, and large-scale fire disturbance. In contrast, there have been no reports on large-scale disturbance in rainforests of west and central Africa, though being exposed to similar intensity of climate variability. Using data from Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission (TRMM) (1999-2010), and time series of rainfall observations from meteorological stations (1971-2000), we show that both Amazonian and African rainforest experienced strong precipitation anomalies from 2005-2010. We monitored the response of forest to the climate variability by analyzing the canopy water content observed by SeaWinds Ku-band Scatterometer (QSCAT) (1999-2009) and found that more than 70 million ha of forests in western Amazonia experienced a strong water deficit during the dry season of 2005 and a closely corresponding decline in canopy backscatter that persisted until the next major drought in 2010. This decline in backscatter has been attributed to loss of canopy water content and large-scale tree mortality corroborated by ground and airborne observations. However, no strong impacts was observed on tropical forests of Africa, suggesting that the African rainforest may have more resilience to droughts. We tested this hypothesis by examining the seasonal rainfall patterns, maximum water deficit, and the surface temperature variations. Results show that there is a complex pattern of low annual rainfall, moderate seasonality, and lower surface temperature in Central Africa compared to Amazonia, indicating potentially a lower evapotranspiration circumventing strong water deficits

Response of Tropical Forests to Intense Climate Variability and Rainfall Anomaly of Last Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saatchi, S. S.; Asefi Najafabady, S.

2011-12-01

During the last decade, strong precipitation anomalies resulted from increased sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic, have caused extensive drying trends in rainforests of western Amazonia, exerting water stress, tree mortality, biomass loss, and large-scale fire disturbance. In contrast, there have been no reports on large-scale disturbance in rainforests of west and central Africa, though being exposed to similar intensity of climate variability. Using data from Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission (TRMM) (1999-2010), and time series of rainfall observations from meteorological stations (1971-2000), we show that both Amazonian and African rainforest experienced strong precipitation anomalies from 2005-2010. We monitored the response of forest to the climate variability by analyzing the canopy water content observed by SeaWinds Ku-band Scatterometer (QSCAT) (1999-2009) and found that more than 70 million ha of forests in western Amazonia experienced a strong water deficit during the dry season of 2005 and a closely corresponding decline in canopy backscatter that persisted until the next major drought in 2010. This decline in backscatter has been attributed to loss of canopy water content and large-scale tree mortality corroborated by ground and airborne observations. However, no strong impacts was observed on tropical forests of Africa, suggesting that the African rainforest may have more resilience to droughts. We tested this hypothesis by examining the seasonal rainfall patterns, maximum water deficit, and the surface temperature variations. Results show that there is a complex pattern of low annual rainfall, moderate seasonality, and lower surface temperature in Central Africa compared to Amazonia, indicating potentially a lower evapotranspiration circumventing strong water deficits.

Enhanced Orographic Tropical Rainfall: An Study of the Colombia's rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peñaranda, V. M.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Mesa, O. J.

2015-12-01

Convection in tropical regions may be enhanced by orographic barriers. The orographic enhancement is an intensification of rain rates caused by the forced lifting of air over a mountainous structure. Orographic heavy rainfall events, occasionally, comes along by flooding, debris flow and substantial amount of looses, either economics or human lives. Most of the heavy convective rainfall events, occurred in Colombia, have left a lot of victims and material damages by flash flooding. An urgent action is required by either scientific communities or society, helping to find preventive solutions against these kind of events. Various scientific literature reports address the feedback process between the convection and the local orographic structures. The orographic enhancement could arise by several physical mechanism: precipitation transport on leeward side, convection triggered by the forcing of air over topography, the seeder-feeder mechanism, among others. The identification of the physical mechanisms for orographic enhancement of rainfall has not been studied over Colombia. As far as we know, orographic convective tropical rainfall is just the main factor for the altitudinal belt of maximum precipitation, but the lack of detailed hydro-meteorological measurements have precluded a complete understanding of the tropical rainfall in Colombia and its complex terrain. The emergence of the multifractal theory for rainfall has opened a field of research which builds a framework for parsimonious modeling of physical process. Studies about the scaling behavior of orographic rainfall have found some modulating functions between the rainfall intensity probability distribution and the terrain elevation. The overall objective is to advance in the understanding of the orographic influence over the Colombian tropical rainfall based on observations and scaling-analysis techniques. We use rainfall maps, weather radars scans and ground-based rainfall data. The research strategy is the analysis of rainfall fields via first-order statistical properties, scaling functions, structure functions and spectral analysis, taking into account cloud-motion directions over mountainous slopes (windward/leeward side) and timing of the diurnal cycle. The analysis is developed for some Colombia's locations.

Overland flow connectivity in olive orchard plots with cover crops and conventional tillage, and under different rainfall scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Vicente, Manuel; García-Ruiz, Roberto; Guzmán, Gema; Vicente-Vicente, José Luis; Gómez, José Alfonso

2016-04-01

The study of overland flow connectivity (QC) allows understanding the redistribution dynamics of runoff and soil components as an emergent property of the spatio-temporal interactions of hydrological and geomorphic processes. However, very few studies have dealt with runoff connectivity in olive orchards. In this study we simulated QC in four olive orchard plots, located on the Santa Marta farm (37° 20' 33.6" N, 6° 13' 44" W), in Seville province (Andalusia) in SW Spain. The olive plantation was established in 1985 with trees planted at 8 m x 6 m. Each bounded plot is 8 m wide (between 2 tree lines) and 60 m long (total area of 480 m2), laid out with the longest dimension parallel to the maximum slope and to the tree lines. The slope is uniform, with an average steepness of 11%. Two plots (P2 and P4) were devoted to conventional tillage (CT) consisting of regular chisel plow passes depending on weed growth. Another set of two plots had two types of cover crops (CC) in the inter tree rows (the area outside the vertical olive canopy projection): uniform CC of Lolium multiflorum (P3) and a mixture of L. rigidum and L. multiflorum together with other species (P5). The tree rows were treated with herbicide to keep bare soil. We selected the Index of runoff and sediment Connectivity (IC) of Borselli et al. (2008) to simulate three rainfall scenarios: i) low rainfall intensity (Sc-LowInt) and using the MD flow accumulation algorithm; ii) moderate rainfall intensity (Sc-ModInt) and using MD8; and iii) high rainfall intensity (Sc-HighInt) and using D8. After analysing the values of rainfall intensity during two hydrological years (Oct'09-Sep'10 and Oct'10-Sep'11) we associated the three scenarios with the followings months: Sc-LowInt during the period Jan-Mar, that summarizes 42% of all annual rainfall events; Sc-ModInt during Oct-Nov and Apr-May (32% of all events); and Sc-HighInt during the period Jun-Sep and in December (26% of all events). Instead of using the C-RUSLE factor as it is indicated in the original version of the IC model, we chosen the product between the C (cover-management) and P (support-practices) factors. Previous studies in olive orchards (Gómez et al., 2003) demonstrated that this product is advisable in soil erosion studies. We distinguished four areas within the plots: inter-row-CC, inter-row-CT, olive trees and bare soil under the tree line. Values of the C-RUSLE factor were obtained from previous studies (e.g. Moreira-Madueño, 1991 in Andalusia; Panagos et al., 2015 in Europe). The minimum, mean and maximum values of connectivity in the two plots with CC were lower (-8% on average) than the corresponding values in the two plots under CT. This trend remained by using any of the three algorithms. CC efficiently reduced overland flow connectivity. Areas with low connectivity (deposition-prone areas) appeared more frequently in inter-row-CC in comparison with CT. The assessment of the C-RUSLE factor for each month according to the phenology of the CC and the sowing practices will be explored in further research.

Changing On Diurnal Cycle Of Rainfall In Northern Coastal Of West Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yulihastin, E.; Hadi, T. W.; Ningsih, N. S.

2017-12-01

The floods event in the north of Java was largely due to persistent of rainfall that occurred in the morning which indicated of deviation of diurnal pattern of rainfall. The shift of the phase of diurnal rainfall cycle using TRMM satellite hourly data of 3B41RT on the rainy period of 2000-2016 exhibits over land from Late Afternoon-Early Midnight (LA-EM) to morning. The peak of the cycle changes from diurnal to semidiurnal with a peak occurring in LA-EM and morning. Location of rainfall which usually occurs in the oceans shifted into near coastal area. The classification of diurnal rainfall cycles based on composite analysis shows four types: Normal (N) Type (45.6%) with one peak rainfall occurring in the afternoon until night, Diurnal (D) Type (26%) with one peak and phase opposite to normal type, Semidiurnal (SD) Type (6.5 %) with two peaks and the main peak occurring in the afternoon until night, Third Diurnal (TD) Type (21.7%) with three peaks and the main peak occurs in the morning. The classification was confirmed using the objective method of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and obtained three IMFs representing three diurnal cycle modes of Type TD (67.8%) with the main rain peak taking place in the afternoon, Type D with rain peak occurring in the early hours (18.9%), and SD type (9.9%) with the first peak occurred in the afternoon. For D Type, the results also prove that the diurnal cycle with significant deviations in amplitude occurred in February 2002, 2004, 2008, 2014, wich is the maximum rainfall occurs in the EM. It also seems that in those years, rainfall intensity is concentrated on the northern coast of West Java while in the Java Sea rainfall was minimum.

Design and application of a drip-type rainfall simulator adapted to steep topography and low intensity-rainfall characteristics in the Coastal Range of Southern Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohr, Christian; Anton, Huber

2010-05-01

Besides being adaptable for measuring infiltration, overland flow and sediment transport simultaneously, rainfall simulator systems allow the observation of the processes of runoff generation and soil erosion, too. This enables the assimilation of additional qualitative data and makes a rainfall simulator system a very valid method in the investigation of soil-hydrological response to precipitation events. In the present study a cheap, handy, transportable and easy to set up rainfall simulator applicable for the steep terrain conditions of the Southern Chilean Coastal range was designed based on Bowyer-Bower & Burt (1989). The used drip-type rainfall simulator had to fulfill two main requirements: adaptive to steep topography and little in water consumption. The used simulator is set up by a dismountable rectangular metal rack of 0.5x1.0m basal surface and 2.5m height. The metallic structure enables the attachment of plastic boards for wind protection. Fixable telescopic extensions allow a firm adjustment to slopes up to 45°. Horizontal metallic frames at different heights increase the stability of the structure and carry the devices of the rainfall simulator. On the uppermost frame, two containers provided with calibrated scales spend the water to a fast reacting receptacle assuring constant water supply and pressure by the Mariotte's principle. The rainfall intensity is adjusted by a control-panel according to the Bernoulli principle. This guarantees a constant water flow which was verified by the water-volume leaving the calibrated containers on top. Interchangeable glass-tubes of different diameters in the control-panel permit the generation of various precipitation intensities (4-60 mm/h; SD =0.16mm). The frame beneath carries an acrylic glass box with approx. 600 drop-formers (fishing line inside a 0.76mm Tygon-tube) at its bottom. 20 cm below, a framed 5mm-spacing-mesh serves as a raindrop randomizer. At the base of the simulator sheet metals avoid lateral leakage of overland flow leading the runoff to a cemented trough. The experiments were conducted until a steady state infiltration rate was observed or the runoff ceased. The runoff samples are taken manually in intervals of 5 or 10 min depending on the simulated intensity and amount of runoff. All bottled samples were filtered to determine the sediment concentration. To test the system's effectiveness a pilot-study was conducted in a granitic soil catchment. The obtained values of the infiltration rate indicate that soil physical properties in this area facilitate rapid infiltration and slope did not show main influence. The sediment concentration showed high variability due to heterogeneity of surface and soil characteristics. In a succeeding study 36 rainfall simulations prior to clear-cuts during dry summer-season and rainy winter-season were carried out to determine the effect of both silvicultural practices on micro-scale. Soil hydrological response showed preferential flow patterns and variable infiltration-rates due to topsoil disturbance in the course of previous timber-harvests and differences in soil depth, hydrophobic organic layers and imbedded rocks. Maximum steady state infiltration rates ranged between 7.3 and 32.3 mm/h. In contrast to the expected results, maximum infiltration occurred at steep slopes. Only little sediment transport was measured. Only under high precipitation on steep slopes a moderate sediment transport (0.074 g/l) was documented. Post clear-cut infiltration experiments will be conducted in Jan.-March 2010. Furthermore, a modified tipping-bucket-device will be installed as a runoff collector-device to gain better temporal resolution.

Throughfall under a teak plantation in Thailand: a multifactorial analysis on the effects of canopy phenology and meteorological conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, N.; Levia, D. F., Jr.; Igarashi, Y.; Nanko, K.; Yoshifuji, N.; Tanaka, K.; Chatchai, T.; Suzuki, M.; Kumagai, T.

2014-12-01

Teak (Tectona grandis Linn. f.) plantations cover vast areas throughout Southeast Asia and are of great economic importance. This study has sought to increase our understanding of throughfall inputs under teak by analyzing the abiotic and biotic factors governing throughfall amounts and throughfall ratios in relation to three canopy phenophases (leafless, leafing, and leafed). There is no rain during the brief leaf senescence phenophase. Daily data was available for both throughfall volumes and depths as well as leaf area index. Detailed meteorological data were available in situ every ten minutes. Leveraging this high-resolution field data, we employed boosted regression trees (BRT) analysis to identify the primary controls on throughfall amount and ratio during each of the three canopy phenophases. Whereas throughfall amounts were always dominated by the magnitude of rainfall (as expected), throughfall ratios were governed by a suite of predictor variables during each phenophase. The BRT analysis demonstrated that throughfall ratio in the leafless phase was most influenced (in descending order of importance) by air temperature, rainfall amount, maximum wind speed, and rainfall intensity. Throughfall ratio in the leafed phenophase was dominated by rainfall amount which exerted 54.0% of the relative influence. The leafing phenophase was an intermediate case where rainfall amount, air temperature, and vapor pressure deficit were most important. Our results highlight the fact that throughfall ratios are differentially influenced by a suite of meteorological variables during leafless, leafing, and leafed phenophases. Abiotic variables (rainfall amount, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and maximum wind speed) trumped leaf area index and stand density in their effect on throughfall ratio. The leafing phenophase, while transitional in nature and short in duration, has a detectable and unique impact on water inputs to teak plantations. Further work is clearly needed to better gauge the importance of the leaf emergence period to the stemflow hydrology and forest biogeochemistry of teak plantations.

Use of a large-scale rainfall simulator reveals novel insights into stemflow generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levia, D. F., Jr.; Iida, S. I.; Nanko, K.; Sun, X.; Shinohara, Y.; Sakai, N.

2017-12-01

Detailed knowledge of stemflow generation and its effects on both hydrological and biogoechemical cycling is important to achieve a holistic understanding of forest ecosystems. Field studies and a smaller set of experiments performed under laboratory conditions have increased our process-based knowledge of stemflow production. Building upon these earlier works, a large-scale rainfall simulator was employed to deepen our understanding of stemflow generation processes. The use of the large-scale rainfall simulator provides a unique opportunity to examine a range of rainfall intensities under constant conditions that are difficult under natural conditions due to the variable nature of rainfall intensities in the field. Stemflow generation and production was examined for three species- Cryptomeria japonica D. Don (Japanese cedar), Chamaecyparis obtusa (Siebold & Zucc.) Endl. (Japanese cypress), Zelkova serrata Thunb. (Japanese zelkova)- under both leafed and leafless conditions at several different rainfall intensities (15, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 100 mm h-1) using a large-scale rainfall simulator in National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (Tsukuba, Japan). Stemflow production and rates and funneling ratios were examined in relation to both rainfall intensity and canopy structure. Preliminary results indicate a dynamic and complex response of the funneling ratios of individual trees to different rainfall intensities among the species examined. This is partly the result of different canopy structures, hydrophobicity of vegetative surfaces, and differential wet-up processes across species and rainfall intensities. This presentation delves into these differences and attempts to distill them into generalizable patterns, which can advance our theories of stemflow generation processes and ultimately permit better stewardship of forest resources. ________________ Funding note: This research was supported by JSPS Invitation Fellowship for Research in Japan (Grant Award No.: S16088) and JSPS KAKENHI (Grant Award No.: JP15H05626).

Physical aspects of Hurricane Hugo in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scatena, F.N.; Larsen, Matthew C.

1991-01-01

On 18 September 1989 the western part ofHurricane Hugo crossed eastern Puerto Rico and the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF). Storm-facing slopes on the northeastern part of the island that were within 15 km of the eye and received greater than 200 mm of rain were most affected by the storm. In the LEF and nearby area, recurrence intervals associated with Hurricane Hugo were 50 yr for wind velocity, 10 to 31 yr for stream discharge, and 5 yr for rainfall intensity. To compare the magnitudes of the six hurricanes to pass over PuertoRico since 1899, 3 indices were developed using the standardized values of the product of: the maximum sustained wind speed at San Juan squared and storm duration; the square of the product of the maximum sustained wind velocity at San Juan and the ratio of the distance between the hurricane eye and San Juan to the distance between the eye and percentage of average annual rainfall delivered by the storm. Based on these indices, HurricaneHugo was of moderate intensity. However, because of the path of Hurricane Hugo, only one of these six storms (the 1932 storm) caused more damage to the LEF than Hurricane Hugo. Hurricanes of Hugo's magnitude are estimated to pass over the LEF once every 50-60 yr, on average. 

Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, John A.

2016-03-21

Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an area-averaged peak runoff coefficient for the September 2013 rain storms in Boulder County, and the 8.6 millimeters per hour to be the rainfall intensity corresponding to a soil moisture threshold that controls the soil infiltration rate. Peak discharge estimates based on the sediment transport effects were generally less than the ensemble average and indicated that sediment transport may be a mechanism that limits velocities in these types of mountain streams such that the Froude number fluctuates about 1 suggesting that this type of floodflow can be approximated as critical flow.

Evaluation of Surface Runoff Generation Processes Using a Rainfall Simulator: A Small Scale Laboratory Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danáčová, Michaela; Valent, Peter; Výleta, Roman

2017-12-01

Nowadays, rainfall simulators are being used by many researchers in field or laboratory experiments. The main objective of most of these experiments is to better understand the underlying runoff generation processes, and to use the results in the process of calibration and validation of hydrological models. Many research groups have assembled their own rainfall simulators, which comply with their understanding of rainfall processes, and the requirements of their experiments. Most often, the existing rainfall simulators differ mainly in the size of the irrigated area, and the way they generate rain drops. They can be characterized by the accuracy, with which they produce a rainfall of a given intensity, the size of the irrigated area, and the rain drop generating mechanism. Rainfall simulation experiments can provide valuable information about the genesis of surface runoff, infiltration of water into soil and rainfall erodibility. Apart from the impact of physical properties of soil, its moisture and compaction on the generation of surface runoff and the amount of eroded particles, some studies also investigate the impact of vegetation cover of the whole area of interest. In this study, the rainfall simulator was used to simulate the impact of the slope gradient of the irrigated area on the amount of generated runoff and sediment yield. In order to eliminate the impact of external factors and to improve the reproducibility of the initial conditions, the experiments were conducted in laboratory conditions. The laboratory experiments were carried out using a commercial rainfall simulator, which was connected to an external peristaltic pump. The pump maintained a constant and adjustable inflow of water, which enabled to overcome the maximum volume of simulated precipitation of 2.3 l, given by the construction of the rainfall simulator, while maintaining constant characteristics of the simulated precipitation. In this study a 12-minute rainfall with a constant intensity of 5 mm/min was used to irrigate a corrupted soil sample. The experiment was undertaken for several different slopes, under the condition of no vegetation cover. The results of the rainfall simulation experiment complied with the expectations of a strong relationship between the slope gradient, and the amount of surface runoff generated. The experiments with higher slope gradients were characterised by larger volumes of surface runoff generated, and by shorter times after which it occurred. The experiments with rainfall simulators in both laboratory and field conditions play an important role in better understanding of runoff generation processes. The results of such small scale experiments could be used to estimate some of the parameters of complex hydrological models, which are used to model rainfall-runoff and erosion processes at catchment scale.

The Estimation of Future Pump Capacity for the Urban Drainage System under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Narae; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Yonsoo; Lee, Jongso; Kim, Hungsoo

2013-04-01

In the recent years, flash flood and local heavy rainfall have been frequently occurred in Korea and this may be due to the climate change. Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) and IPCC AR5 reported new greenhouse gas scenario called RCPs(Representative concentration pathways) which are becoming an interesting subject in the field of water resources. These days, the urban areas in the Korean Peninsula have been suffered from the floods, almost every year, by the localized heavy rainfall and this abnormal rainfall may be due to the climate change. Also, the runoff in the urban area has increased due to the rapid urbanization and so the current design rainfall could not be proper any more for accommodating the abnormal runoff capacity. When we determine the frequency of drainage facilities, the maximum flood discharge from the recorded rainfall intensity is used as the design capacity of the facilities. However, there is a need to examine the future rainfall tendency for the re-establishment of the design criteria of the facilities under the climate change, since the recorded rainfall intensity does not reflect the trend of the abnormal rainfall which can be occurred. This study tries to analyze the variability and trend of future rainfall using RCP scenarios and estimate the future capacity at existing pumping station for the urban drainage system. The future projection periods are set to the next 90 years(2011-2100) and are divided into three cases; Target I : 2011~2040 yrs, Target II : 2041~2070 yrs, and Target III : 2071~2100 yrs. The study area is Incheon-city, Korea which has 9 pumping stations. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario which is the worst scenario of RCPs, the Target I design rainfall is increased by 20%, Target II increased by 33%, and Target III increased by 74% compared with the reference period(1970-2010). When considering the impact of climate change, 3 of 9 pumping stations are expected to have no difficulty in the future rainfall. But, the capacities of 6 pumping stations will not be sufficient for the future rainfall and runoff. Therefore, it is expected to construct more pumping stations allowable 6 times of existing pump capacity especially for Target III(2071-2100). ACKNOWLEDGMENT This research was supported by a grant 'The development of disaster risk assessment technique for flood prevention facilities considering the multi risk factors' [NEMA-NH-2010-33] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of Korea.

Impact of rainfall pattern on interrill erosion process

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The impact of rainfall pattern on the interrill erosion process is not fully understood despite its importance. Systematic rainfall simulation experiments involving different rain intensities, stages, intensity sequences, and surface cover conditions were conducted to investigate the impacts of rain...

Analysis of climate change scenarios in an olive orchard microcatchment in Spain using the model WIMMED

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzmán, Enrique; Aguilar, Cristina; José Polo, María; Taguas, Encarnación V.

2015-04-01

Olive orchards constitute traditional systems in the Mediterranean Basin. In Andalusia, Southern Spain, more than 1.5Mha are dedicated to olive crop land use, which represent a production of 1Mt of olive oil per year. This is a strategic economic sector with environmental and social relevance. In the context of climate change in Andalusia, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has highlighted that an increase of temperatures and rainfall intensities as well as the reduction of cumulated rainfall might be expected. This may mean serious detrimental economic and environmental risks associated to floods and the reduction of available water resources which would be convenient to quantify. The objective of this work is to analyse the rainfall-runoff relationships in an olive orchard catchment by the application of the distributed hydrological model WIMMED (Herrero et al., 2009) simulating the effects of climate change, with a special emphasis on extreme events. Firstly, the model was calibrated and validated with 9 maximum annual events of a datasets from 2005-2012 obtained in an olive orchard catchment in Spain (Taguas et al., 2010). In this stage, only the saturated hydraulic conductivity and soil moisture in saturation were adjusted after a sensitivity analysis where 68 simulations were carried out. A good agreement was obtained between observed and simulated hydrographs. The mean errors and the root mean square errors were 0.18 mm and 2.19 mm for the calibration and 0.18 and 1.94 mm, for the validation. Finally, the catchment response to the increase of intensity and temperature and the reduction of cumulated rainfall were simulated for the maximum event of the series. The results showed a rise of 11% of the runoff coefficient quantifying the possible impact of climate change. REFERENCES Herrero J, Polo M., Moñino A., Losada MA (2009). An energy balance snowmelt model in a Mediterranean site. J. Hydrol. 371, pp. 98-107 Taguas EV, Peña A, Ayuso JL, Yuan Y, Pérez R, Giráldez JV (2010). Rainfall variability and hydrological and erosive response of an olive tree microcatchment under no-tillage with a spontaneous grass cover in Spain. Earth Surf. Proces. Land., 35(7): 750-760.

A 507-year rainfall and runoff reconstruction for the Monsoonal North West, Australia derived from remote paleoclimate archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.; Hancock, Gregory R.; Lowry, John B.

2017-11-01

The Monsoonal North West (MNW) region of Australia faces a number of challenges adapting to anthropogenic climate change. These have the potential to impact on a range of industries, including agricultural, pastoral, mining and tourism. However future changes to rainfall regimes remain uncertain due to the inability of Global Climate Models to adequately capture the tropical weather/climate processes that are known to be important for this region. Compounding this is the brevity of the instrumental rainfall record for the MNW, which is unlikely to represent the full range of climatic variability. One avenue for addressing this issue (the focus of this paper) is to identify sources of paleoclimate information that can be used to reconstruct a plausible pre-instrumental rainfall history for the MNW. Adopting this approach we find that, even in the absence of local sources of paleoclimate data at a suitable temporal resolution, remote paleoclimate records can resolve 25% of the annual variability observed in the instrumental rainfall record. Importantly, the 507-year rainfall reconstruction developed using the remote proxies displays longer and more intense wet and dry periods than observed during the most recent 100 years. For example, the maximum number of consecutive years of below (above) average rainfall is 90% (40%) higher in the rainfall reconstruction than during the instrumental period. Further, implications for flood and drought risk are studied via a simple GR1A rainfall runoff model, which again highlights the likelihood of extremes greater than that observed in the limited instrumental record, consistent with previous paleoclimate studies elsewhere in Australia. Importantly, this research can assist in informing climate related risks to infrastructure, agriculture and mining, and the method can readily be applied to other regions in the MNW and beyond.

[Soil infiltration capacity under different vegetations in southern Ningxia Loess hilly region].

PubMed

Yang, Yong-Hui; Zhao, Shi-Wei; Lei, Ting-Wu; Liu, Han

2008-05-01

A new apparatus for measuring the run off-on-out under simulated rainfall conditions was used to study the soil infiltration capacity under different rainfall intensities and vegetations in loess hilly region of southern Ningxia, with the relationships between soil water-stable aggregate content and soil stable infiltration rate under different vegetations analyzed. The results showed that the regression equations between rainfall duration and soil infiltration rate under different vegetations all followed y = a + be(-cx), with R2 ranged from 0.9678 to 0.9969. With the increase of rainfall intensity, the soil stable infiltration rate on slope cropland decreased, while that on Medicago lupulina land, natural grassland, and Caragana korshinskii land increased. Under the rainfall intensity of 20 mm h(-1), the rainfall infiltration translation rate (RITR) was decreased in the order of M. lupulina land > slope cropland > natural grassland > C. korshinskii land; while under the rainfall intensity of 40 mm h(-1) and 56 mm h(-1), the RITR was in the sequence of M. lupulina land > natural grassland > slope cropland > C. korshinskii land, and decreased with increasing rainfall intensity. After the reversion of cropland to grassland and forest land, and with the increase of re-vegetation, the amount of >0.25 mm soil aggregates increased, and soil infiltration capacity improved. The revegetation in study area effectively improved soil structure and soil infiltration capacity, and enhanced the utilization potential of rainfall on slope.

Local influence of south-east France topography and land cover on the distribution and characteristics of intense rainfall cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renard, Florent

2017-04-01

The Greater Lyon area is strongly built up, grouping 58 communes and a population of 1.3 million in approximately 500 km2. The flood risk is high as the territory is crossed by two large watercourses and by streams with torrential flow. Floods may also occur in case of runoff after heavy rain or because of a rise in the groundwater level. The whole territory can therefore be affected, and it is necessary to possess in-depth knowledge of the depths, causes and consequences of rainfall to achieve better management of precipitation in urban areas and to reduce flood risk. This study is thus focused on the effects of topography and land cover on the occurrence, intensity and area of intense rainfall cells. They are identified by local radar meteorology (C-band) combined with a processing algorithm running in a geographic information system (GIS) which identified 109,979 weighted mean centres of them in a sample composed of the five most intense rainfall events from 2001 to 2005. First, analysis of spatial distribution at an overall scale is performed, completed by study at a more detailed scale. The results show that the distribution of high-intensity rainfall cells is spread in cluster form. Subsequently, comparison of intense rainfall cells with the topography shows that cell density is closely linked with land slope but that, above all, urbanised zones feature nearly twice as many rainfall cells as farm land or forest, with more intense intensity.

Coupling loss characteristics of runoff-sediment-adsorbed and dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus on bare loess slope.

PubMed

Wu, Lei; Qiao, Shanshan; Peng, Mengling; Ma, Xiaoyi

2018-05-01

Soil and nutrient loss is a common natural phenomenon but it exhibits unclear understanding especially on bare loess soil with variable rainfall intensity and slope gradient, which makes it difficult to design control measures for agricultural diffuse pollution. We employ 30 artificial simulated rainfalls (six rainfall intensities and five slope gradients) to quantify the coupling loss correlation of runoff-sediment-adsorbed and dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus on bare loess slope. Here, we show that effects of rainfall intensity on runoff yield was stronger than slope gradient with prolongation of rainfall duration, and the effect of slope gradient on runoff yield reduced gradually with increased rainfall intensity. But the magnitude of initial sediment yield increased significantly from an average value of 6.98 g at 5° to 36.08 g at 25° with increased slope gradient. The main factor of sediment yield would be changed alternately with the dual increase of slope gradient and rainfall intensity. Dissolved total nitrogen (TN) and dissolved total phosphorus (TP) concentrations both showed significant fluctuations with rainfall intensity and slope gradient, and dissolved TP concentration was far less than dissolved TN. Under the double influences of rainfall intensity and slope gradient, adsorbed TN concentration accounted for 7-82% of TN loss concentration with an average of 58.6% which was the main loss form of soil nitrogen, adsorbed TP concentration accounted for 91.8-98.7% of TP loss concentration with an average of 96.6% which was also the predominant loss pathway of soil phosphorus. Nitrate nitrogen (NO 3 - -N) accounted for 14.59-73.92% of dissolved TN loss, and ammonia nitrogen (NH 4 + -N) accounted for 1.48-18.03%. NO 3 - -N was the main loss pattern of TN in runoff. Correlation between dissolved TN, runoff yield, and rainfall intensity was obvious, and a significant correlation was also found between adsorbed TP, sediment yield, and slope gradient. Our results provide the underlying insights needed to guide the control of nitrogen and phosphorus loss on loess hills.

Influence of rainfall microstructure on rainfall interception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zabret, Katarina; Rakovec, Jože; Mikoš, Matjaž; Šraj, Mojca

2016-04-01

Rainfall interception is part of the hydrological cycle. Precipitation, which hits vegetation, is retained on the leaves and branches, from which it eventually evaporates into the atmosphere (interception) or reaches the ground by dripping from the canopy, falling through the gaps (throughfall) and running down the stems (stemflow). The process is influenced by various meteorological and vegetation parameters. Often neglected meteorological parameter influencing rainfall interception is also rainfall microstructure. Rain is a discrete process consisting of various numbers of individual raindrops with different sizes and velocities. This properties describe rainfall microstructure which is often neglected in hydrological analysis and replaced with rainfall intensity. Throughfall, stemflow and rainfall microstructure have been measured since the beginning of the year 2014 under two tree species (Betula pendula and Pinus nigra) on a study plot in Ljubljana, Slovenia. The preliminary analysis of the influence of rainfall microstructure on rainfall interception has been conducted using three events with different characteristics measured in May 2014. Event A is quite short with low rainfall amount and moderate rainfall intensity, whereas events B and C have similar length but low and high intensities, respectively. Event A was observed on the 1st of May 2014. It was 22 minutes long and delivered 1.2 mm of rainfall. The average rainfall intensity was equal to 3.27 mm/h. The event consisted of 1,350 rain drops with average diameter of 1.517 mm and average velocity of 5.110 m/s. Both Betula pendula and Pinus nigra intercepted similar amount of rainfall, 68 % and 69 %, respectively. Event B was observed in the night from the 7th to 8th of May 2014, it was 16 hours and 18 minutes long, and delivered 4.2 mm of rainfall with average intensity of 0.97 mm/h. There were 39,108 raindrops detected with average diameter of 0.858 mm and average velocity of 3.855 m/s. Betula pendula (23 %) has intercepted significantly less rainfall than Pinus nigra (85%). Event C was also observed in the night time between 11th and 12th of May 2014, it lasted 4 hours and 12 minutes and delivered 34.6 mm of rainfall with an average intensity equal to 8.24 mm/h. During the event 147,236 raindrops with average diameter of 1.020 mm and average velocity of 4.078 m/s were detected. Betula pendula has intercepted only 6 % of rainfall whereas Pinus nigra intercepted majority of rainfall, namely 85 %. In case of B. pendula rainfall interception is increasing with higher velocity whereas it is lower for medium diameters than for smaller or larger diameters. Rainfall interception under P. nigra is decreasing with higher velocities and behaving similar as under B. pendula for different diameters but with less obvious difference between diameter classes. We will continue with the measurements and further analysis of several rainfall events will be prepared.

Markov chain decomposition of monthly rainfall into daily rainfall: Evaluation of climate change impact

DOE PAGES

Yoo, Chulsang; Lee, Jinwook; Ro, Yonghun

2016-01-01

This paper evaluates the effect of climate change on daily rainfall, especially on the mean number of wet days and the mean rainfall intensity. Assuming that the mechanism of daily rainfall occurrences follows the first-order Markov chain model, the possible changes in the transition probabilities are estimated by considering the climate change scenarios. Also, the change of the stationary probabilities of wet and dry day occurrences and finally the change in the number of wet days are derived for the comparison of current (1x CO 2) and 2x CO 2conditions. As a result of this study, the increase or decreasemore » in the mean number of wet days was found to be not enough to explain all of the change in monthly rainfall amounts, so rainfall intensity should also be modified. The application to the Seoul weather station in Korea shows that about 30% of the total change in monthly rainfall amount can be explained by the change in the number of wet days and the remaining 70% by the change in the rainfall intensity. That is, as an effect of climate change, the increase in the rainfall intensity could be more significant than the increase in the wet days and, thus, the risk of flood will be much highly increased.« less

Effects of rainfall intensity and slope gradient on runoff and sediment yield characteristics of bare loess soil.

PubMed

Wu, Lei; Peng, Mengling; Qiao, Shanshan; Ma, Xiao-Yi

2018-02-01

Soil erosion is a universal phenomenon on the Loess Plateau but it exhibits complex and typical mechanism which makes it difficult to understand soil loss laws on slopes. We design artificial simulated rainfall experiments including six rainfall intensities (45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 120 mm/h) and five slopes (5°, 10°, 15°, 20°, 25°) to reveal the fundamental changing trends of runoff and sediment yield on bare loess soil. Here, we show that the runoff yield within the initial 15 min increased rapidly and its trend gradually became stable. Trends of sediment yield under different rainfall intensities are various. The linear correlation between runoff and rainfall intensity is obvious for different slopes, but the correlations between sediment yield and rainfall intensity are weak. Runoff and sediment yield on the slope surface both presents an increasing trend when the rainfall intensity increases from 45 mm/h to 120 mm/h, but the increasing trend of runoff yield is higher than that of sediment yield. The sediment yield also has an overall increasing trend when the slope changes from 5° to 25°, but the trend of runoff yield is not obvious. Our results may provide data support and underlying insights needed to guide the management of soil conservation planning on the Loess Plateau.

Range Atmospheric and Oceanic Environmental Support Capabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

Precipitation location/intensity, thunderstorm location/intensity, rainfall/flash flood warning, hydrometer characterization, wind warnings, and...intensity, lightning monitoring, rainfall and flash flood warning, hydrometer characterization, and wind warnings. b. Satellite: MTSAT, GOES-10

Comparison of Adaline and Multiple Linear Regression Methods for Rainfall Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutawinaya, IP; Astawa, INGA; Hariyanti, NKD

2018-01-01

Heavy rainfall can cause disaster, therefore need a forecast to predict rainfall intensity. Main factor that cause flooding is there is a high rainfall intensity and it makes the river become overcapacity. This will cause flooding around the area. Rainfall factor is a dynamic factor, so rainfall is very interesting to be studied. In order to support the rainfall forecasting, there are methods that can be used from Artificial Intelligence (AI) to statistic. In this research, we used Adaline for AI method and Regression for statistic method. The more accurate forecast result shows the method that used is good for forecasting the rainfall. Through those methods, we expected which is the best method for rainfall forecasting here.

Rainfall From Resolved Rather Than Parameterized Processes Better Represents the Present-Day and Climate Change Response of Moderate Rates in the Community Atmosphere Model

DOE PAGES

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Pritchard, Michael S.; O'Brien, Travis A.; ...

2018-04-01

Deficiencies in the parameterizations of convection used in global climate models often lead to a distorted representation of the simulated rainfall intensity distribution (i.e., too much rainfall from weak rain rates). While encouraging improvements in high percentile rainfall intensity have been found as the horizontal resolution of the Community Atmosphere Model is increased to ~25 km, we demonstrate no corresponding improvement in the moderate rain rates that generate the majority of accumulated rainfall. Using a statistical framework designed to emphasize links between precipitation intensity and accumulated rainfall beyond just the frequency distribution, we show that CAM cannot realistically simulate moderatemore » rain rates, and cannot capture their intensification with climate change, even as resolution is increased. However, by separating the parameterized convective and large-scale resolved contributions to total rainfall, we find that the intensity, geographic pattern, and climate change response of CAM's large-scale rain rates are more consistent with observations (TRMM 3B42), superparameterization, and theoretical expectations, despite issues with parameterized convection. Increasing CAM's horizontal resolution does improve the representation of total rainfall intensity, but not due to changes in the intensity of large-scale rain rates, which are surprisingly insensitive to horizontal resolution. Rather, improvements occur through an increase in the relative contribution of the large-scale component to the total amount of accumulated rainfall. Analysis of sensitivities to convective timescale and entrainment rate confirm the importance of these parameters in the possible development of scale-aware parameterizations, but also reveal unrecognized trade-offs from the entanglement of precipitation frequency and total amount.« less

Rainfall From Resolved Rather Than Parameterized Processes Better Represents the Present-Day and Climate Change Response of Moderate Rates in the Community Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Pritchard, Michael S.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Timmermans, Ben W.

2018-04-01

Deficiencies in the parameterizations of convection used in global climate models often lead to a distorted representation of the simulated rainfall intensity distribution (i.e., too much rainfall from weak rain rates). While encouraging improvements in high percentile rainfall intensity have been found as the horizontal resolution of the Community Atmosphere Model is increased to ˜25 km, we demonstrate no corresponding improvement in the moderate rain rates that generate the majority of accumulated rainfall. Using a statistical framework designed to emphasize links between precipitation intensity and accumulated rainfall beyond just the frequency distribution, we show that CAM cannot realistically simulate moderate rain rates, and cannot capture their intensification with climate change, even as resolution is increased. However, by separating the parameterized convective and large-scale resolved contributions to total rainfall, we find that the intensity, geographic pattern, and climate change response of CAM's large-scale rain rates are more consistent with observations (TRMM 3B42), superparameterization, and theoretical expectations, despite issues with parameterized convection. Increasing CAM's horizontal resolution does improve the representation of total rainfall intensity, but not due to changes in the intensity of large-scale rain rates, which are surprisingly insensitive to horizontal resolution. Rather, improvements occur through an increase in the relative contribution of the large-scale component to the total amount of accumulated rainfall. Analysis of sensitivities to convective timescale and entrainment rate confirm the importance of these parameters in the possible development of scale-aware parameterizations, but also reveal unrecognized trade-offs from the entanglement of precipitation frequency and total amount.

Rainfall From Resolved Rather Than Parameterized Processes Better Represents the Present‐Day and Climate Change Response of Moderate Rates in the Community Atmosphere Model

PubMed Central

Pritchard, Michael S.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Timmermans, Ben W.

2018-01-01

Abstract Deficiencies in the parameterizations of convection used in global climate models often lead to a distorted representation of the simulated rainfall intensity distribution (i.e., too much rainfall from weak rain rates). While encouraging improvements in high percentile rainfall intensity have been found as the horizontal resolution of the Community Atmosphere Model is increased to ∼25 km, we demonstrate no corresponding improvement in the moderate rain rates that generate the majority of accumulated rainfall. Using a statistical framework designed to emphasize links between precipitation intensity and accumulated rainfall beyond just the frequency distribution, we show that CAM cannot realistically simulate moderate rain rates, and cannot capture their intensification with climate change, even as resolution is increased. However, by separating the parameterized convective and large‐scale resolved contributions to total rainfall, we find that the intensity, geographic pattern, and climate change response of CAM's large‐scale rain rates are more consistent with observations (TRMM 3B42), superparameterization, and theoretical expectations, despite issues with parameterized convection. Increasing CAM's horizontal resolution does improve the representation of total rainfall intensity, but not due to changes in the intensity of large‐scale rain rates, which are surprisingly insensitive to horizontal resolution. Rather, improvements occur through an increase in the relative contribution of the large‐scale component to the total amount of accumulated rainfall. Analysis of sensitivities to convective timescale and entrainment rate confirm the importance of these parameters in the possible development of scale‐aware parameterizations, but also reveal unrecognized trade‐offs from the entanglement of precipitation frequency and total amount. PMID:29861837

Rainfall From Resolved Rather Than Parameterized Processes Better Represents the Present-Day and Climate Change Response of Moderate Rates in the Community Atmosphere Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Pritchard, Michael S.; O'Brien, Travis A.

Deficiencies in the parameterizations of convection used in global climate models often lead to a distorted representation of the simulated rainfall intensity distribution (i.e., too much rainfall from weak rain rates). While encouraging improvements in high percentile rainfall intensity have been found as the horizontal resolution of the Community Atmosphere Model is increased to ~25 km, we demonstrate no corresponding improvement in the moderate rain rates that generate the majority of accumulated rainfall. Using a statistical framework designed to emphasize links between precipitation intensity and accumulated rainfall beyond just the frequency distribution, we show that CAM cannot realistically simulate moderatemore » rain rates, and cannot capture their intensification with climate change, even as resolution is increased. However, by separating the parameterized convective and large-scale resolved contributions to total rainfall, we find that the intensity, geographic pattern, and climate change response of CAM's large-scale rain rates are more consistent with observations (TRMM 3B42), superparameterization, and theoretical expectations, despite issues with parameterized convection. Increasing CAM's horizontal resolution does improve the representation of total rainfall intensity, but not due to changes in the intensity of large-scale rain rates, which are surprisingly insensitive to horizontal resolution. Rather, improvements occur through an increase in the relative contribution of the large-scale component to the total amount of accumulated rainfall. Analysis of sensitivities to convective timescale and entrainment rate confirm the importance of these parameters in the possible development of scale-aware parameterizations, but also reveal unrecognized trade-offs from the entanglement of precipitation frequency and total amount.« less

Impact of an intense rainfall event on soil properties following a wildfire in a Mediterranean environment (North-East Spain).

PubMed

Francos, Marcos; Pereira, Paulo; Alcañiz, Meritxell; Mataix-Solera, Jorge; Úbeda, Xavier

2016-12-01

Intense rainfall events after severe wildfires can have an impact on soil properties, above all in the Mediterranean environment. This study seeks to examine the immediate impact and the effect after a year of an intense rainfall event on a Mediterranean forest affected by a high severity wildfire. The work analyses the following soil properties: soil aggregate stability, total nitrogen, total carbon, organic and inorganic carbon, the C/N ratio, carbonates, pH, electrical conductivity, extractable calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, available phosphorous and the sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR). We sampled soils in the burned area before, immediately after and one year after the rainfall event. The results showed that the intense rainfall event did not have an immediate impact on soil aggregate stability, but a significant difference was recorded one year after. The intense precipitation did not result in any significant changes in soil total nitrogen, total carbon, inorganic carbon, the C/N ratio and carbonates during the study period. Differences were only registered in soil organic carbon. The soil organic carbon content was significantly higher after the rainfall than in the other sampling dates. The rainfall event did increase soil pH, electrical conductivity, major cations, available phosphorous and the SPAR. One year after the fire, a significant decrease in soil aggregate stability was observed that can be attributed to high SPAR levels and human intervention, while the reduction in extractable elements can be attributed to soil leaching and vegetation consumption. Overall, the intense rainfall event, other post-fire rainfall events and human intervention did not have a detrimental impact on soil properties in all probability owing to the flat plot topography. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rainfall and Sheet Power Equation for Interrill Erosion on Steep Hillslope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, S.; Park, S.; Pierson, F. B.; Al-Hamdan, O. Z.; Williams, C. J.

2012-12-01

Splash and sheet erosion processes dominate on most undisturbed hillslopes of rangeland. Interrill soil erosion should consider the influence of both raindrop and sheet flow to work of soil particles detached by raindrop impact and transported by rainfall-disturbed sheet flow. Interrill erosion equations that combine the influence of both rainfall and runoff have been proposed by several researchers. However most approaches to modeling interrill erosion have been based on statistical relationships given the inherent complexity in derivation of broadly-applicable physically-based erosion parameters. In this study, a rainfall and sheet power equation to evaluate interrill sediment yields (Qs) was derived from the sum of rainfall power and sheet power expressed by rainfall intensity: Qs=a(cosθ/L){α sinθ ∑ I(t)^(11/9)+β tanθ^(1/2) ∑ (1-fr(t))^(5/3) I(t)^(5/3)}^b, where I(t) is rainfall intensity, θ is slope angle, fr(t) is infiltration rate, a, b, α, and β are coefficients, sinθ I(t)^(11/9) is the rainfall power term, and tanθ^(1/2) (1-fr(t))^(5/3) I(t)^(5/3) is the sheet power term. The rainfall power ratio and sheet power ratio decreased and increased with increased rainfall intensity, respectively. The sheet power term depended greatly on infiltration rate controlled by rainfall intensity, vegetation cover, and soil condition. The rainfall and sheet power equation assuming that α and β is 0 was evaluated using field data from plots on steep hillslopes and showed the better correlation with sediment yields than rainfall kinetic energy, runoff discharge, or interrill equations based on rainfall intensity and runoff discharge founded in the literature. This equation successfully explained physical processes for soil erosion that rainfall power is dominant under low rainfall and sheet power is dominant under heavy rainfall. Additional experimental data is needed to assess coefficients of the power equation to determine the relative quantities of rainfall power and sheet power and to evaluate the erosion efficiency of interactions between raindrop impact and sheet flow and soil erodibility. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by a grant (Code#'08 RTIP B-01) from Regional Technology Innovation Program funded by Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs of Korean government.;

Characterization of a Mediterranean flash flood event using rain gauges, radar, GIS and lightning data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnolas, M.; Atencia, A.; Llasat, M. C.; Rigo, T.

2008-06-01

Flash flood events are very common in Catalonia, generating a high impact on society, including losses in life almost every year. They are produced by the overflowing of ephemeral rivers in narrow and steep basins close to the sea. This kind of floods is associated with convective events producing high rainfall intensities. The aim of the present study is to analyse the 12 14 September 2006 flash flood event within the framework of the characteristics of flood events in the Internal Basins of Catalonia (IBC). To achieve this purpose all flood events occurred between 1996 and 2005 have been analysed. Rainfall and radar data have been introduced into a GIS, and a classification of the events has been done. A distinction of episodes has been made considering the spatial coverage of accumulated rainfall in 24 h, and the degree of the convective precipitation registered. The study case can be considered as a highly convective one, with rainfalls covering all the IBC on the 13th of September. In that day 215.9 mm/24 h were recorded with maximum intensities above 130 mm/h. A complete meteorological study of this event is also presented. In addition, as this is an episode with a high lightning activity it has been chosen to be studied into the framework of the FLASH project. In this way, a comparison between this information and raingauge data has been developed. All with the goal in mind of finding a relation between lightning density, radar echoes and amounts of precipitation. Furthermore, these studies improve our knowledge about thunderstorms systems.

Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vessia, G.; Parise, M.; Brunetti, M. T.; Peruccacci, S.; Rossi, M.; Vennari, C.; Guzzetti, F.

2014-04-01

Over the last 40 years, many contributions have been devoted to identifying the empirical rainfall thresholds (e.g. intensity vs. duration ID, cumulated rainfall vs. duration ED, cumulated rainfall vs. intensity EI) for the initiation of shallow landslides, based on local as well as worldwide inventories. Although different methods to trace the threshold curves have been proposed and discussed in literature, a systematic study to develop an automated procedure to select the rainfall event responsible for the landslide occurrence has rarely been addressed. Nonetheless, objective criteria for estimating the rainfall responsible for the landslide occurrence (effective rainfall) play a prominent role on the threshold values. In this paper, two criteria for the identification of the effective rainfall events are presented: (1) the first is based on the analysis of the time series of rainfall mean intensity values over one month preceding the landslide occurrence, and (2) the second on the analysis of the trend in the time function of the cumulated mean intensity series calculated from the rainfall records measured through rain gauges. The two criteria have been implemented in an automated procedure written in R language. A sample of 100 shallow landslides collected in Italy by the CNR-IRPI research group from 2002 to 2012 has been used to calibrate the proposed procedure. The cumulated rainfall E and duration D of rainfall events that triggered the documented landslides are calculated through the new procedure and are fitted with power law in the (D,E) diagram. The results are discussed by comparing the (D,E) pairs calculated by the automated procedure and the ones by the expert method.

Bivariate frequency analysis of rainfall intensity and duration for urban stormwater infrastructure design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, Changhyun; Qin, Xiaosheng; Gan, Thian Yew; Tung, Yeou-Koung; De Michele, Carlo

2017-10-01

This study presents a storm-event based bivariate frequency analysis approach to determine design rainfalls in which, the number, intensity and duration of actual rainstorm events were considered. To derive more realistic design storms, the occurrence probability of an individual rainstorm event was determined from the joint distribution of storm intensity and duration through a copula model. Hourly rainfall data were used at three climate stations respectively located in Singapore, South Korea and Canada. It was found that the proposed approach could give a more realistic description of rainfall characteristics of rainstorm events and design rainfalls. As results, the design rainfall quantities from actual rainstorm events at the three studied sites are consistently lower than those obtained from the conventional rainfall depth-duration-frequency (DDF) method, especially for short-duration storms (such as 1-h). It results from occurrence probabilities of each rainstorm event and a different angle for rainfall frequency analysis, and could offer an alternative way of describing extreme rainfall properties and potentially help improve the hydrologic design of stormwater management facilities in urban areas.

The capacity of radar, crowdsourced personal weather stations and commercial microwave links to monitor small scale urban rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uijlenhoet, R.; de Vos, L. W.; Leijnse, H.; Overeem, A.; Raupach, T. H.; Berne, A.

2017-12-01

For the purpose of urban rainfall monitoring high resolution rainfall measurements are desirable. Typically C-band radar can provide rainfall intensities at km grid cells every 5 minutes. Opportunistic sensing with commercial microwave links yields rainfall intensities over link paths within cities. Additionally, recent developments have made it possible to obtain large amounts of urban in situ measurements from weather amateurs in near real-time. With a known high resolution simulated rainfall event the accuracy of these three techniques is evaluated, taking into account their respective existing layouts and sampling methods. Under ideal measurement conditions, the weather station networks proves to be most promising. For accurate estimation with radar, an appropriate choice for Z-R relationship is vital. Though both the microwave links and the weather station networks are quite dense, both techniques will underestimate rainfall if not at least one link path / station captures the high intensity rainfall peak. The accuracy of each technique improves when considering rainfall at larger scales, especially by increasing time intervals, with the steepest improvements found in microwave links.

An evaluation of the uncertainty of extreme events statistics at the WMO/CIMO Lead Centre on precipitation intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colli, M.; Lanza, L. G.; La Barbera, P.

2012-12-01

Improving the quality of point-scale rainfall measurements is a crucial issue fostered in recent years by the WMO Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation (CIMO) by providing recommendations on the standardization of equipment and exposure, instrument calibration and data correction as a consequence of various comparative campaigns involving manufacturers and national meteorological services from the participating countries. The WMO/CIMO Lead Centre on Precipitation Intensity (LC) was recently constituted, in a joint effort between the Dep. of Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering of the University of Genova and the Italian Air Force Met Service, gathering the considerable asset of data and information achieved by the past infield and laboratory campaigns with the aim of researching novel methodologies for improving the accuracy of rainfall intensity (RI) measurement techniques. Among the ongoing experimental activities carried out by the LC laboratory particular attention is paid to the reliability evaluation of extreme rainfall events statistics , a common tool in the engineering practice for urban and non urban drainage system design, based on real world observations obtained from weighing gauges. Extreme events statistics were proven already to be highly affected by the traditional tipping-bucket rain gauge RI measurement inaccuracy (La Barbera et al., 2002) and the time resolution of the available RI series certainly constitutes another key-factor in the reliability of the derived hyetographs. The present work reports the LC laboratory efforts in assembling a rainfall simulation system to reproduce the inner temporal structure of the rainfall process by means of dedicated calibration and validation tests. This allowed testing of catching type rain gauges under non-steady flow conditions and quantifying, in a first instance, the dynamic behaviour of the investigated instruments. Considerations about the influence of the dynamic response on the uncertainty budget of modern rain gauges is also shown . The analysis proceeds with the laboratory simulation of the annual maximum rainfall events recorded for different durations at the Villa Cambiaso meteo-station (University of Genova) over the last two decades. Results are reported and discussed in a comparative form involving the derived extreme events statistics. REFERENCES La Barbera P., Lanza L.G. and Stagi L. (2002). Influence of systematic mechanical errors of tipping-bucket rain gauges on the statistics of rainfall extremes. Water Sci. Techn., 45(2), 1-9. Colli M., Lanza L.G., and Chan P.W. (2011). Co-located tipping-bucket and optical drop counter RI measurements and a simulated correction algorithm, Atmos. Res., doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.07.018 Colli M., Lanza L.G., La Barbera P. (2012). Weighing gauges measurement errors and the design rainfall for urban scale applications. 9th International workshop on precipitation in urban areas. St.Moritz, Switzerland, 6-9 December 2012 Lanza L.G. and Vuerich E. (2009). The WMO Field Intercomparison of Rain Intensity Gauges. Atmos. Res., 94, 534-543.

Effects of Cumulus Parameterization on the U.S. Summer Precipitation Prediction by the Regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting Model (CWRF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, F.; Liang, X.

2011-12-01

Accurate prediction of U.S. summer precipitation, including its geographic distribution, the occurrence frequency and intensity, and diurnal cycle, has been a long-standing problem for most climate and weather models. This study employs the Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) to investigate the effects of cumulus parameterization on prediction of these key precipitation features during the summers of 1993 and 2008 when severe floods occurred over the U.S. Midwest. Among the 12 widely-used cumulus schemes incorporated in the CWRF, the Ensemble Cumulus Parameterization modified from G3 (ECP) scheme and the Zhang-McFarland cumulus scheme modified by Liang (ZML) well reproduce the geographic distributions of observed 1993 and 2008 floods, albeit both slightly underestimating the maximum amount. However, the ZML scheme greatly overestimates the rainfall amount over the North American Monsoon region and Southeast U.S. while the ECP scheme has a better performance over the entire U.S. Compared to global general circulations models that tend to produce too frequent rainy events at reduced intensity, the CWRF better captures both frequency and intensity of extreme events (heavy rainfall and dry bells). However, most existing cumulus schemes in the CWRF are likely to convert atmospheric moisture into rainfall too fast, leading to less rainy days and stronger heavy rainfall events. A few cumulus schemes can depict the diurnal characteristics in certain but not all the regions over the U.S. For example, the Grell scheme shows its superiority in reproducing the eastward diurnal phase transition and the nocturnal peaks over the Great Plains, whereas the other schemes all fail in capturing this feature. By investigating the critical trigger function(s) that enable these cumulus schemes to capture the observed features, it provides opportunity to better understand the underlying mechanisms that drive the diurnal variation, and thus significantly improves the U.S. summer rainfall diurnal cycle prediction. These will be discussed. For an oral presentation at AGU Fall Meeting 2011 A15: Cloud, Convection, Precipitation, and Radiation: Observations and Modeling, San Francisco, California, USA, 5-9 December 2011.

Suitability of standard rain-gauge networks for recording maximum intensity of rainstorms. Examples from the Mediterranean area.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriele, Salvatore; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Iovine, Giulio; Mondini, Alessandro; Terranova, Oreste

2014-05-01

Heavy rainstorms often cause natural disasters with damage to the built up environment, injures and victims, strongly hampering social and economic development in the Mediterranean area. Accuracy in space and time of rainfall measurements is a pre-requisite for any attempt of hydrological modelling. Unfortunately, except for a few areas subject to experimentation, rain gauge networks are generally inadequate to describe the spatial distribution of the rainfall. Pluviometric data have hence to be integrated by considering other types of sources. Thanks to its characteristics, mainly in terms of spatial and temporal resolution, the METEOSAT of second generation (MSG) allows for an accurate observation of clouds, and then of the rainstorms, over the entire European territory. More in detail, origin and development of clouds associated to extreme events can be monitored, and the peculiar structures of severe convective rainstorms can be characterized. By the way, several studies pointed out correlations among physical parameters obtained from satellite images and rainstorm intensities. In the Mediterranean area, short rainstorm events are usually associated to cumulonimbus that exhibit a high vertical development. Their top may reach the stratosphere, at 12-13 km above the ground, where the the clouds diverge horizontally to form the typical "anvil". Such notable spreading of the anvil testifies a strong divergence, i.e. upwelling of the air, due to convection. Moreover, due to the limited size of the rainstorm cells (generally, in the order of few tens of km), the maximum intensity can only rarely be recorded by traditional rain gauge networks. Hydrological analyses commonly point out wrong return periods estimations, especially for highly localized and spatially variable events. Despite the huge amount of data, available computer power and storage capacity allow to include in a GIS environment all territorial information, including those derived from satellite images and from the rain gauge network. In the present study, examples of application of rainfall data obtained from satellite images and calibrated by means of traditional rain gauge records are discussed, concerning recent catastrophic rainstorms that affected the Italian territory.

Identification of trends in intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events in part of the Indian Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhardwaj, Alok; Ziegler, Alan D.; Wasson, Robert J.; Chow, Winston; Sharma, Mukat L.

2017-04-01

Extreme monsoon rainfall is the primary reason of floods and other secondary hazards such as landslides in the Indian Himalaya. Understanding the phenomena of extreme monsoon rainfall is therefore required to study the natural hazards. In this work, we study the characteristics of extreme monsoon rainfall including its intensity and frequency in the Garhwal Himalaya in India, with a focus on the Mandakini River Catchment, the site of devastating flood and multiple large landslides in 2013. We have used two long term rainfall gridded data sets: the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) product with daily rainfall data from 1951-2007 and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) product with daily rainfall data from 1901 to 2013. Two methods of Mann Kendall and Sen Slope estimator are used to identify the statistical significance and magnitude of trends in intensity and frequency of extreme monsoon rainfall respectively, at a significance level of 0.05. The autocorrelation in the time series of extreme monsoon rainfall is identified and reduced using the methods of: pre-whitening, trend-free pre-whitening, variance correction, and block bootstrap. We define extreme monsoon rainfall threshold as the 99th percentile of time series of rainfall values and any rainfall depth greater than 99th percentile is considered as extreme in nature. With the IMD data set, significant increasing trend in intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall with slope magnitude of 0.55 and 0.02 respectively was obtained in the north of the Mandakini Catchment as identified by all four methods. Significant increasing trend in intensity with a slope magnitude of 0.3 is found in the middle of the catchment as identified by all methods except block bootstrap. In the south of the catchment, significant increasing trend in intensity with a slope magnitude of 0.86 for pre-whitening method and 0.28 for trend-free pre-whitening and variance correction methods was obtained. Further, increasing trend in frequency with a slope magnitude of 0.01 was identified by three methods except block bootstrap in the south of the catchment. With the APHRODITE data set, we obtained significant increasing trend in intensity with a slope magnitude of 1.27 at the middle of the catchment as identified by all four methods. Collectively, both the datasets show signals of increasing intensity, and IMD shows results for increasing frequency in the Mandakini Catchment. The increasing occurrence of extreme events, as identified here, is becoming more disastrous because of rising human population and infrastructure in the Mandakini Catchment. For example, the 2013 flood due to extreme rainfall was catastrophic in terms of loss of human and animal lives and destruction of the local economy. We believe our results will help understand more about extreme rainfall events in the Mandakini Catchment and in the Indian Himalaya.

Effects of soil type and rainfall intensity on sheet erosion processes and sediment characteristics along the climatic gradient in central-south China.

PubMed

Wu, Xinliang; Wei, Yujie; Wang, Junguang; Xia, Jinwen; Cai, Chongfa; Wei, Zhiyuan

2018-04-15

Soil erosion poses a major threat to the sustainability of natural ecosystems. The main objective of this study was to investigate the effects of soil type and rainfall intensity on sheet erosion processes (hydrological, erosional processes and sediment characteristics) from temperate to tropical climate. Field plot experiments were conducted under pre-wetted bare fallow condition for five soil types (two Luvisols, an Alisol, an Acrisol and a Ferralsol) with heavy textures (silty clay loam, silty clay and clay) derived separately from loess deposits, quaternary red clays and basalt in central-south China. Rainfall simulations were performed at two rainfall intensities (45 and 90mmh -1 ) and lasted one hour after runoff generation. Runoff coefficient, sediment concentration, sediment yield rate and sediment effective size distribution were determined at 3-min intervals. Runoff temporal variations were similar at the high rainfall intensity, but exhibited a remarkable difference at the low rainfall intensity among soil types except for tropical Ferralsol. Illite was positively correlated with runoff coefficient (p<0.05). Rainfall intensity significantly contributed to the erosional process (p<0.001). Sediment concentration and yield rate were the smallest for the tropical Ferralsol and sediment concentration was the largest for the temperate Luvisol. The regimes (transport and detachment) limiting erosion varied under the interaction of rainfall characteristics (intensity and duration) and soil types, with amorphous iron oxides and bulk density jointly enhancing soil resistance to erosive forces (Adj-R 2 >88%, p<0.001). Sediment size was dominated by <0.1mm size fraction for the Luvisols and bimodally distributed with the peaks at <0.1mm and 1-0.5mm size for the other soil types. Exchangeable sodium decreased sediment size while rainfall intensity and clay content increased it (Adj-R 2 =96%, p<0.01). These results allow to better understand the climate effect on erosion processes at the spatial-temporal scale from the perspective of soil properties. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Selection of meteorological parameters affecting rainfall estimation using neuro-fuzzy computing methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashim, Roslan; Roy, Chandrabhushan; Motamedi, Shervin; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Petković, Dalibor; Gocic, Milan; Lee, Siew Cheng

2016-05-01

Rainfall is a complex atmospheric process that varies over time and space. Researchers have used various empirical and numerical methods to enhance estimation of rainfall intensity. We developed a novel prediction model in this study, with the emphasis on accuracy to identify the most significant meteorological parameters having effect on rainfall. For this, we used five input parameters: wet day frequency (dwet), vapor pressure (e̅a), and maximum and minimum air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as cloud cover (cc). The data were obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department for the Patna city, Bihar, India. Further, a type of soft-computing method, known as the adaptive-neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), was applied to the available data. In this respect, the observation data from 1901 to 2000 were employed for testing, validating, and estimating monthly rainfall via the simulated model. In addition, the ANFIS process for variable selection was implemented to detect the predominant variables affecting the rainfall prediction. Finally, the performance of the model was compared to other soft-computing approaches, including the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), extreme learning machine (ELM), and genetic programming (GP). The results revealed that ANN, ELM, ANFIS, SVM, and GP had R2 of 0.9531, 0.9572, 0.9764, 0.9525, and 0.9526, respectively. Therefore, we conclude that the ANFIS is the best method among all to predict monthly rainfall. Moreover, dwet was found to be the most influential parameter for rainfall prediction, and the best predictor of accuracy. This study also identified sets of two and three meteorological parameters that show the best predictions.

Probabilistic clustering of rainfall condition for landslide triggering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Mauro; Luciani, Silvia; Cesare Mondini, Alessandro; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Valigi, Daniela; Guzzetti, Fausto

2013-04-01

Landslides are widespread natural and man made phenomena. They are triggered by earthquakes, rapid snow melting, human activities, but mostly by typhoons and intense or prolonged rainfall precipitations. In Italy mostly they are triggered by intense precipitation. The prediction of landslide triggered by rainfall precipitations over large areas is commonly based on the exploitation of empirical models. Empirical landslide rainfall thresholds are used to identify rainfall conditions for the possible landslide initiation. It's common practice to define rainfall thresholds by assuming a power law lower boundary in the rainfall intensity-duration or cumulative rainfall-duration space above which landslide can occur. The boundary is defined considering rainfall conditions associated to landslide phenomena using heuristic approaches, and doesn't consider rainfall events not causing landslides. Here we present a new fully automatic method to identify the probability of landslide occurrence associated to rainfall conditions characterized by measures of intensity or cumulative rainfall and rainfall duration. The method splits the rainfall events of the past in two groups: a group of events causing landslides and its complementary, then estimate their probabilistic distributions. Next, the probabilistic membership of the new event to one of the two clusters is estimated. The method doesn't assume a priori any threshold model, but simple exploits the real empirical distribution of rainfall events. The approach was applied in the Umbria region, Central Italy, where a catalogue of landslide timing, were obtained through the search of chronicles, blogs and other source of information in the period 2002-2012. The approach was tested using rain gauge measures and satellite rainfall estimates (NASA TRMM-v6), allowing in both cases the identification of the rainfall condition triggering landslides in the region. Compared to the other existing threshold definition methods, the prosed one (i) largely reduces the subjectivity in the choice of the threshold model and in how it is calculated, and (ii) it can be easier set-up in other study areas. The proposed approach can be conveniently integrated in existing early-warning system to improve the accuracy of the estimation of the real landslide occurrence probability associated to rainfall events and its uncertainty.

Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

2000-10-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an 11-yr period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and interannual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important.To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444-km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain-rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared with those for nontropical cyclone systems.The main results of this study indicate that 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maximum tropical cyclone rainfall is poleward (5°-10° latitude depending on longitude) of the maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% off the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Niño years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Experimental study on influence of vegetation coverage on runoff in wind-water erosion crisscross region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jinhua; Zhang, Ronggang; Sun, Juan

2018-02-01

Using artificial rainfall simulation method, 23 simulation experiments were carried out in water-wind erosion crisscross region in order to analyze the influence of vegetation coverage on runoff and sediment yield. The experimental plots are standard plots with a length of 20m, width of 5m and slope of 15 degrees. The simulation experiments were conducted in different vegetation coverage experimental plots based on three different rainfall intensities. According to the experimental observation data, the influence of vegetation coverage on runoff and infiltration was analyzed. Vegetation coverage has a significant impact on runoff, and the higher the vegetation coverage is, the smaller the runoff is. Under the condition of 0.6mm/min rainfall intensity, the runoff volume from the experimental plot with 18% vegetation coverage was 1.2 times of the runoff from the experimental with 30% vegetation coverage. What’s more, the difference of runoff is more obvious in higher rainfall intensity. If the rainfall intensity reaches 1.32mm/min, the runoff from the experimental plot with 11% vegetation coverage is about 2 times as large as the runoff from the experimental plot with 53%vegetation coverage. Under the condition of small rainfall intensity, the starting time of runoff in the experimental plot with higher vegetation coverage is later than that in the experimental plot with low vegetation coverage. However, under the condition of heavy rainfall intensity, there is no obvious difference in the beginning time of runoff. In addition, the higher the vegetation coverage is, the deeper the rainfall infiltration depth is.The results can provide reference for ecological construction carried out in wind erosion crisscross region with serious soil erosion.

Seasonal variation and climate change impact in Rainfall Erosivity across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine; Ballabio, Cristiano

2017-04-01

Rainfall erosivity quantifies the climatic effect on water erosion and is of high importance for soil scientists, land use planners, agronomists, hydrologists and environmental scientists in general. The rainfall erosivity combines the influence of rainfall duration, magnitude, frequency and intensity. Rainfall erosivity is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years). The European Commission's Joint Research Centr(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,675 stations. The interpolation of those point erosivity values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511: 801-815). In 2016, REDES extended with a monthly component, which allowed developing monthly and seasonal erosivity maps and assessing rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally for European Union and Switzerland. The monthly erosivity maps have been used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315). Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year. Finally, the identification of the most erosive month allows recommending certain agricultural management practices (crop residues, reduced tillage) in regions with high erosivity. Besides soil erosion mapping, the intra-annual analysis of rainfall erosivity is an important step towards flood prevention, hazard mitigation, ecosystem services, land use change and agricultural production. The application of REDES in combination with moderate climate change scenarios scenario (HadGEM RCP 4.5) resulted in predictions of erosivity in 2050. The overall increase of rainfall erosivity in Europe by 18% until 2050 are in line with projected increases of 17% for the U.S.A. The predicted mean rise of erosivity is also expected to increase the threat of soil erosion in Europe. The most noticeable increase of erosivity is projected for North-Central Europe, the English Channel, The Netherlands and Northern France. On the contrary, the Mediterranean basin show mixed trends. The success story with the compilation of REDES and first rainfall erosivity map of Europe was a driver to implement a Global Rainfall Erosivity Database (GloREDa). During the last 3 years, JRC was leading an effort to collect high temporal resolution rainfall data worldwide. In collaboration with 50 scientists worldwide and 100+ Meteorological and environmental Organisations, we have developed a Global Erosivity Database. In this database, we managed to include calculated erosivity values for 3,625 stations covering 63 countries worldwide.

A stationary criterion to identify the duration of efficient rainfalls to trigger shallow landslide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vessia, G.; Parise, M.

2012-04-01

Even though rainfall is considered a well known trigger of natural slope instability, its effective role in initiating landsliding phenomena cannot be easily distinguished due to many time- and space- variable interactions among several factors (i.e. slope geometry, mechanical and hydraulic characters of superficial layers and the basin, etc.). A common approach to relate rainfall to the onset of shallow landslides is to plot effective rainfall intensity vs duration to draw intensity threshold lines. Since the earliest work by Caine (1980) on this topic, several researchers have tried to establish intensity thresholds by means of deterministic and probabilistic approaches from a number of worldwide and regional rainfall-landslide inventories. With respect to this intensity-duration threshold approach, information about rainfall-induced landslides are generally collected from chronicles or historical landslide time series, whilst no data about the hydraulic and geometric features of soils and rocks involved into the natural slope instability is commonly taken into account. On the contrary, rainfall heights at different time lag (even every 30 min) are available at different stations by rain gauges. As rain gauge measurements are concerned, these can suffer many problems such as temporary saturation, temporary lack of data transmission and anomalous geographical distribution of the rainfall. Recently, satellite data have been employed to quantify the rainfall event related to landslide occurrence but their correlation to the effective rainfall height at a site is not guaranteed yet. So far, rain gauge measures still represent the most used option. Moreover, the physical simplification introduced by such "rainfall based" approach on landslide prediction can be accepted due to the assumption that only shallow landslides are considered for drawing a regional intensity-duration threshold from the considered data. Starting from the above considerations, and within the framework of a nationwide project by CNR-IRPI, under funds from the National Civil Department, the authors propose in this article a new criterion to identify from rain gauge measures the duration of the rainfalls triggering shallow landslides. The new criterion represents an attempt to identify the duration of the "effective rainfall event" responsible for the landslide occurrence, as reported by newspaper clips and/or in real time web newspapers. At this regard, antecedent precipitations are not taken into account, since the model considers only that amount of rainfall that effectively triggers the slope failure. The model analyses the hourly rainfall time series for at least one month before occurrence of the shallow landslide, using a historical landslide archive covering the time range between 2002 and 2011 in the Lazio Region, central Italy. This archive was obtained by a procedure consisting of the following steps: i) critical scrutiny of chronicles, ii) identification of the landslide site, and iii) retrieval of the rainfall data from the nearest rain gauge station within the pluviometric network provided by the National Department of Civil Protection. The proposed method, for each reported landslide, uses the cumulative function of the rainfall heights and rainfall intensity calculated for different time lag. Then, in order to identify the beginning of the effective rainfall event, two conditions have to be satisfied: (1) the difference in rainfall intensity between two adjacent windows must be very low, and (2) the time series of lack of rainfall must be stationary. When these conditions are met, the initial time of the efficient rainfall necessary to trigger the landslide is established. Such criterion is statistically based according to the rainfall time distribution only. No assumption is needed on the probabilistic distributions of time series of rain/not rain. Such approach has been successfully applied to medium-to-long rainfalls, for which rain/not rain datasets are statistically significant. Very short rainfall durations (i.e. a few hours), due to the small number of data, are not suitable to this approach, but, on the other hand, their onset is generally easily recognizable by visual inspection of the height pluviometric trends.

Influence of meteorological variables on rainfall partitioning for deciduous and coniferous tree species in urban area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zabret, Katarina; Rakovec, Jože; Šraj, Mojca

2018-03-01

Rainfall partitioning is an important part of the ecohydrological cycle, influenced by numerous variables. Rainfall partitioning for pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) and birch (Betula pendula Roth.) trees was measured from January 2014 to June 2017 in an urban area of Ljubljana, Slovenia. 180 events from more than three years of observations were analyzed, focusing on 13 meteorological variables, including the number of raindrops, their diameter, and velocity. Regression tree and boosted regression tree analyses were performed to evaluate the influence of the variables on rainfall interception loss, throughfall, and stemflow in different phenoseasons. The amount of rainfall was recognized as the most influential variable, followed by rainfall intensity and the number of raindrops. Higher rainfall amount, intensity, and the number of drops decreased percentage of rainfall interception loss. Rainfall amount and intensity were the most influential on interception loss by birch and pine trees during the leafed and leafless periods, respectively. Lower wind speed was found to increase throughfall, whereas wind direction had no significant influence. Consideration of drop size spectrum properties proved to be important, since the number of drops, drop diameter, and median volume diameter were often recognized as important influential variables.

Quantification of agricultural drought occurrence as an estimate for insurance programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bannayan, M.; Hoogenboom, G.

2015-11-01

Temporal irregularities of rainfall and drought have major impacts on rainfed cropping systems. The main goal of this study was to develop an approach for realizing drought occurrence based on local winter wheat yield loss and rainfall. The domain study included 11 counties in the state of Washington that actively grow rainfed winter wheat and an uncertainty rainfall evaluation model using daily rainfall values from 1985 to 2007. An application was developed that calculates a rainfall index for insurance that was then used to determine the drought intensity for each study year and for each study site. Evaluation of the drought intensity showed that both the 1999-2000 and 2000-2001 growing seasons were stressful years for most of the study locations, while the 2005-2006 and the 2006-2007 growing seasons experienced the lowest drought intensity for all locations. Our results are consistent with local extension reports of drought occurrences. Quantification of drought intensity based on this application could provide a convenient index for insurance companies for determining the effect of rainfall and drought on crop yield loss under the varying weather conditions of semi-arid regions.

Potential aboveground biomass in drought-prone forest used for rangeland pastoralism.

PubMed

Fensham, R J; Fairfax, R J; Dwyer, J M

2012-04-01

The restoration of cleared dry forest represents an important opportunity to sequester atmospheric carbon. In order to account for this potential, the influences of climate, soils, and disturbance need to be deciphered. A data set spanning a region defined the aboveground biomass of mulga (Acacia aneura) dry forest and was analyzed in relation to climate and soil variables using a Bayesian model averaging procedure. Mean annual rainfall had an overwhelmingly strong positive effect, with mean maximum temperature (negative) and soil depth (positive) also important. The data were collected after a recent drought, and the amount of recent tree mortality was weakly positively related to a measure of three-year rainfall deficit, and maximum temperature (positive), soil depth (negative), and coarse sand (negative). A grazing index represented by the distance of sites to watering points was not incorporated by the models. Stark management contrasts, including grazing exclosures, can represent a substantial part of the variance in the model predicting biomass, but the impact of management was unpredictable and was insignificant in the regional data set. There was no evidence of density-dependent effects on tree mortality. Climate change scenarios represented by the coincidence of historical extreme rainfall deficit with extreme temperature suggest mortality of 30.1% of aboveground biomass, compared to 21.6% after the recent (2003-2007) drought. Projections for recovery of forest using a mapping base of cleared areas revealed that the greatest opportunities for restoration of aboveground biomass are in the higher-rainfall areas, where biomass accumulation will be greatest and droughts are less intense. These areas are probably the most productive for rangeland pastoralism, and the trade-off between pastoral production and carbon sequestration will be determined by market forces and carbon-trading rules.

Objective definition of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of post-fire debris flows in southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis; Kean, Jason W.; Cannon, Susan H.; Schmidt, Kevin M.; Laber, Jayme L.

2012-01-01

Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to predict the temporal occurrence of debris flows and shallow landslides. Typically, thresholds are subjectively defined as the upper limit of peak rainstorm intensities that do not produce debris flows and landslides, or as the lower limit of peak rainstorm intensities that initiate debris flows and landslides. In addition, peak rainstorm intensities are often used to define thresholds, as data regarding the precise timing of debris flows and associated rainfall intensities are usually not available, and rainfall characteristics are often estimated from distant gauging locations. Here, we attempt to improve the performance of existing threshold-based predictions of post-fire debris-flow occurrence by utilizing data on the precise timing of debris flows relative to rainfall intensity, and develop an objective method to define the threshold intensities. We objectively defined the thresholds by maximizing the number of correct predictions of debris flow occurrence while minimizing the rate of both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) errors. We identified that (1) there were statistically significant differences between peak storm and triggering intensities, (2) the objectively defined threshold model presents a better balance between predictive success, false alarms and failed alarms than previous subjectively defined thresholds, (3) thresholds based on measurements of rainfall intensity over shorter duration (≤60 min) are better predictors of post-fire debris-flow initiation than longer duration thresholds, and (4) the objectively defined thresholds were exceeded prior to the recorded time of debris flow at frequencies similar to or better than subjective thresholds. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain the timing and processes of initiation of landslides and debris flows for future threshold studies. In addition, the methods used to define rainfall thresholds in this study represent a computationally simple means of deriving critical values for other studies of nonlinear phenomena characterized by thresholds.

The canopy interception-landslide initiation conundrum: insight from a tropical secondary forest in northern Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidle, Roy C.; Ziegler, Alan D.

2017-01-01

The interception and smoothing effect of forest canopies on pulses of incident rainfall and its delivery to the soil has been suggested as a factor in moderating peak pore water pressure in soil mantles, thus reducing the risk of shallow landslides. Here we provide 3 years of rainfall and throughfall data in a tropical secondary dipterocarp forest characterized by few large trees in northern Thailand, along with selected soil moisture dynamics, to address this issue. Throughfall was an estimated 88 % of rainfall, varying from 86 to 90 % in individual years. Data from 167 events demonstrate that canopy interception was only weakly associated (via a nonlinear relationship) with total event rainfall, but not significantly correlated with duration, mean intensity, or antecedent 2-day precipitation (API2). Mean interception during small events (≤ 35 mm) was 17 % (n = 135 events) compared with only 7 % for large events (> 35 mm; n = 32). Examining small temporal intervals within the largest and highest intensity events that would potentially trigger landslides revealed complex patterns of interception. The tropical forest canopy had little smoothing effect on incident rainfall during the largest events. During events with high peak intensities, high wind speeds, and/or moderate-to-high pre-event wetting, measured throughfall was occasionally higher than rainfall during large event peaks, demonstrating limited buffering. However, in events with little wetting and low-to-moderate wind speed, early event rainfall peaks were buffered by the canopy. As rainfall continued during most large events, there was little difference between rainfall and throughfall depths. A comparison of both rainfall and throughfall depths to conservative mean intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation revealed that throughfall exceeded the threshold in 75 % of the events in which rainfall exceeded the threshold for both wet and dry conditions. Throughfall intensity for the 11 largest events (rainfall = 65-116 mm) plotted near or above the intensity-duration threshold for landslide initiation during wet conditions; 5 of the events were near or above the threshold for dry conditions. Soil moisture responses during large events were heavily and progressively buffered at depths of 1 to 2 m, indicating that the timescale of any short-term smoothing of peak rainfall inputs (i.e., ≤ 1 h) has little influence on peak pore water pressure at depths where landslides would initiate in this area. Given these findings, we conclude that canopy interception would have little effect on mitigating shallow landslide initiation during the types of monsoon rainfall conditions in this and similar tropical secondary forest sites.

First flush characteristics of rainfall runoff from a paddy field in the Taihu Lake watershed, China.

PubMed

Li, Songmin; Wang, Xiaoling; Qiao, Bin; Li, Jiansheng; Tu, Jiamin

2017-03-01

Nonpoint storm runoff remains a major threat to surface water quality in China. As a paddy matures, numerous fertilizers are needed, especially in the rainy seasons; the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus in rainfall runoff from farmland is much higher than at other times, and this poses a great threat to water bodies and is the main reason for water eutrophication, especially in high concentration drainages. To date, most studies regarding the characteristics of pollutants in rainfall runoff have mainly been concentrated on urban runoff and watershed runoff; therefore, it is particularly important to investigate the characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus loss in rainfall runoff from paddy fields. To study the characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus loss and whether the first flush effect exists, continuous monitoring of the rainfall runoff process of six rainfall events was conducted in 2013, of which four rainfall events during storm, high, middle, and low intensity rainfalls were analyzed, and runoff and quality parameters, such as suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (TN), ammonium nitrogen (NH 4 + -N), nitrate nitrogen (NO 3 - -N), total phosphorus (TP), and phosphate (PO 4 3- -P), were analyzed to determine the relationship between runoff and water quality. The paddy field is located north of Wuxi Lake Basin along the Hejia River upstream in Zhoutie town, Yixing city. An analysis of the load distribution during rainfall runoff was conducted. Event mean concentration (EMC) was used to evaluate the pollution situation of the paddy field's rainfall runoff. A curve of the dimensionless normalized cumulative load (L) vs. normalized cumulative flow (F) (L-F curve), the probability of the mass first flush (MFFn), and the pollutants carried by the initial 25% of runoff (FF 25 ) were used to analyze the first flush effect of the paddy field runoff, and different contaminants show different results: the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus fluctuate and follow a similar trend as runoff changes, NO 3 - -N concentration is lower in the early part of runoff and higher in the later, and TP mainly occurs in the particle state in storm runoff and mainly in the dissolved state when the rainfall intensity is smaller. Nitrogen and phosphorus losses from paddy fields are closely related to the average rainfall intensity and the max rainfall intensity, and the runoff loss of nitrogen and phosphorus is more severe when the rainfall intensity is large. Based on an analysis of multiple methodologies, TN and NH 4 + -N show a certain degree of a first flush effect, whereas the first flush effect of TP is not obvious. The first flush effect of SS is obvious in larger intensity rainfall and shows a slight secondary flush effect in smaller rainfall events.

Estimated probabilities, volumes, and inundation areas depths of potential postwildfire debris flows from Carbonate, Slate, Raspberry, and Milton Creeks, near Marble, Gunnison County, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stevens, Michael R.; Flynn, Jennifer L.; Stephens, Verlin C.; Verdin, Kristine L.

2011-01-01

During 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Gunnison County, initiated a study to estimate the potential for postwildfire debris flows to occur in the drainage basins occupied by Carbonate, Slate, Raspberry, and Milton Creeks near Marble, Colorado. Currently (2010), these drainage basins are unburned but could be burned by a future wildfire. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of postwildfire debris-flow occurrence and debris-flow volumes for drainage basins occupied by Carbonate, Slate, Raspberry, and Milton Creeks near Marble. Data for the postwildfire debris-flow models included drainage basin area; area burned and burn severity; percentage of burned area; soil properties; rainfall total and intensity for the 5- and 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration-rainfall; and topographic and soil property characteristics of the drainage basins occupied by the four creeks. A quasi-two-dimensional floodplain computer model (FLO-2D) was used to estimate the spatial distribution and the maximum instantaneous depth of the postwildfire debris-flow material during debris flow on the existing debris-flow fans that issue from the outlets of the four major drainage basins. The postwildfire debris-flow probabilities at the outlet of each drainage basin range from 1 to 19 percent for the 5-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, and from 3 to 35 percent for 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall. The largest probabilities for postwildfire debris flow are estimated for Raspberry Creek (19 and 35 percent), whereas estimated debris-flow probabilities for the three other creeks range from 1 to 6 percent. The estimated postwildfire debris-flow volumes at the outlet of each creek range from 7,500 to 101,000 cubic meters for the 5-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, and from 9,400 to 126,000 cubic meters for the 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall. The largest postwildfire debris-flow volumes were estimated for Carbonate Creek and Milton Creek drainage basins, for both the 5- and 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfalls. Results from FLO-2D modeling of the 5-year and 25-year recurrence, 1-hour rainfalls indicate that the debris flows from the four drainage basins would reach or nearly reach the Crystal River. The model estimates maximum instantaneous depths of debris-flow material during postwildfire debris flows that exceeded 5 meters in some areas, but the differences in model results between the 5-year and 25-year recurrence, 1-hour rainfalls are small. Existing stream channels or topographic flow paths likely control the distribution of debris-flow material, and the difference in estimated debris-flow volume (about 25 percent more volume for the 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall compared to the 5-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall) does not seem to substantially affect the estimated spatial distribution of debris-flow material. Historically, the Marble area has experienced periodic debris flows in the absence of wildfire. This report estimates the probability and volume of debris flow and maximum instantaneous inundation area depths after hypothetical wildfire and rainfall. This postwildfire debris-flow report does not address the current (2010) prewildfire debris-flow hazards that exist near Marble.

Modelling soil erosion in rainfed vineyards of northeast of Spain under climate change: effects of increasing rainfall intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Concepción Ramos, Maria

2017-04-01

This aim of the research was to analyse the effect of rainfall distribution and intensity on soil erosion in vines cultivated in the Mediterranean under the projected climate change scenario. The simulations were done at plot scale using the WEPP model. Climatic data for the period 1996-2014 were obtained from a meteorological station located 6km far from the plot. Soil characteristics such as texture, organic matter content, water retention capacity and infiltration were analysed. Runoff and soil losses were measured at four locations within the plot during 4 years and used to calibrate and validate the model. According to evidences recorded in the area, changes of rainfall intensities of 10 and 20% were considered for different rainfall distributions. The simulations were extended to the predicted changes for 2030, 2050 and 2070 based on the HadGEM2-CC under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 scenario. WEPP model provided a suitable prediction of the seasonal runoff and erosion as simulated relatively well the runoff and erosion of the most important events although some deficiencies were found for those events that produced low runoff. The simulation confirmed the contribution of the extreme events to annual erosion rates in 70%, on average. The model responded to changes in precipitation predicted under a climate change scenario with a decrease of runoff and erosion, and with higher erosion rates for an increase in rainfall intensity. A 10% increase may imply erosion rates up to 22% greater for the scenario 2030, and despite the predicted decrease in precipitation for the scenario 2050, soil losses may be up to 40% greater than at present for some rainfall distributions and intensity rainfall increases of 20%. These findings show the need of considering rainfall intensity as one of the main driven factors when soil erosion rates under climate change are predicted. Keywords: extreme events, rainfall distribution, runoff, soil losses, wines, WEPP.

Rainfall erosivity factor estimation in Republic of Moldova

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castraveš, Tudor; Kuhn, Nikolaus

2017-04-01

Rainfall erosivity represents a measure of the erosive force of rainfall. Typically, it is expressed as variable such as the R factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) (Wischmeier and Smith, 1965, 1978) or its derivates. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event (EI30) is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 minutes intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable for wide regions and countries. Usually, there are three issues regarding precipitation data: low temporal resolution, low spatial density and limited access to the data. This is especially true for some of postsoviet countries from Eastern Europe, such as Republic of Moldova, where soil erosion is a real and persistent problem (Summer, 2003) and where soils represents the main natural resource of the country. Consequently, researching and managing soil erosion is particularly important. The purpose of this study is to develop a model based on commonly available rainfall data, such as event, daily or monthly amounts, to calculate rainfall erosivity for the territory of Republic of Moldova. Rainfall data collected during 1994-2015 period at 15 meteorological stations in the Republic of Moldova, with 10 minutes temporal resolution, were used to develop and calibrate a model to generate an erosivity map of Moldova. References 1. Summer, W., (2003). Soil erosion in the Republic of Moldova — the importance of institutional arrangements. Erosion Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Integrating Methods and Techniques (Proceedings of symposium HS01 held during IUGG2003 at Sapporo. July 2003). IAHS Publ. no. 279. 2. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1965). Predicting rainfall-erosion losses from cropland east of the Rocky Mountains. Agr. Handbook No. 282, U.S. Dept. Agr., Washington, DC 3. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1978). Predicting rainfall erosion losses. Agr. handbook No. 537, U.S. Dept. of Agr., Science and Education Administration.

A pore-pressure diffusion model for estimating landslide-inducing rainfall

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reid, M.E.

1994-01-01

Many types of landslide movement are induced by large rainstorms, and empirical rainfall intensity/duration thresholds for initiating movement have been determined for various parts of the world. In this paper, I present a simple pressure diffusion model that provides a physically based hydrologic link between rainfall intensity/duration at the ground surface and destabilizing pore-water pressures at depth. The model approximates rainfall infiltration as a sinusoidally varying flux over time and uses physical parameters that can be determined independently. Using a comprehensive data set from an intensively monitored landslide, I demonstrate that the model is capable of distinguishing movement-inducing rainstorms. -Author

Impact of the rainfall pattern on synthetic pesticides and copper runoff from a vineyard catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payraudeau, Sylvain; Meite, Fatima; Wiegert, Charline; Imfeld, Gwenaël

2017-04-01

Runoff is a major process of pesticide transport from agricultural land to downstream aquatic ecosystems. The impact of rainfall characteristics on the transport of runoff-related pesticide is rarely evaluated at the catchment scale. Here, we evaluate the influence of rainfall pattern on the mobilization of synthetic pesticides and copper fungicides in runoff from a small vineyard catchment, both at the plot and catchment scales. During two vineyard growing seasons in 2015 and 2016 (from March to October), we monitored rainfall, runoff, and concentrations of copper and 20 fungicides and herbicides applied by winegrowers at the Rouffach vineyard catchment (France, Alsace; 42.5 ha). Rainfall data were recorded within the catchment while runoff measurement and flow-proportional water sampling were carried out at the outlet of the plot (1486 m2; 87.5 × 17 m) and the catchment. In total, discharges of the 14 runoff events were continuously monitored between March and October 2015 using bubbler flow modules combined with Venturi channels. Detailed and distributed dataset on pesticide applications were extracted from survey (copper formulations and type of pesticides, amount and application dates). Pools of copper and synthetic pesticides were quantified weekly in the topsoil (0-3 cm) by systematic sampling across the catchment. The concentrations of copper (10 mg.kg-1 dried soil) and synthetic pesticides (close to the quantification limit, i.e. 0.05 µg.L-1) available in the top soil for off-site transport largely differed over time. Between March and October, an accumulation of copper of 10% was observed in the top-soil while pesticide concentration decreased below the quantification limits after a few days or weeks following application, depending of the compounds. The average runoff generated at the plot scale was very low (0.13% ± 0.30). The maximum runoff reached 1.37% during the storm of July 22, 2015. Synthetic pesticides exported by runoff was less than 1‰ of the applications. The copper mass exported represented about 1% (i.e. 2,085 g at the plot's scale) of the seasonal input, and mainly occurred during the major storm event. Copper were mainly exported in association with suspended particulate matter (SPM) (>80% of the total load). The partitioning between dissolved and SPM phases differs for the synthetic pesticides as expected by their properties. The rainfall pattern influences concentrations and loads of copper and the pesticides. Dissolved pesticide loads normalized by the pesticide mass in soil varied with larger rainfall intensities, runoff discharges and volumes. Contrasted relationships between rainfall characteristics (i.e. intensity, duration and total amount) and the load exported suggest that mechanisms of contaminant delivery from the vineyard soil differs among the pesticides and for copper. The results support the idea that, even in small catchment areas, the rainfall pattern (i.e. rainfall intensity and duration) partly controls the transport of pesticide and copper loads in runoff. Though other factors, such as the chemical characteristics and the amount and timing of applications, are important drivers for pesticide runoff, the rainfall patterns also determine the transport of pesticides from catchment to downstream aquatic ecosystems, and thus the ecotoxicological risk.

Evaluation of empirical relationships between extreme rainfall and daily maximum temperature in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herath, Sujeewa Malwila; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Nguyen, Van Thanh Van

2018-01-01

Understanding the relationships between extreme daily and sub-daily rainfall events and their governing factors is important in order to analyse the properties of extreme rainfall events in a changing climate. Atmospheric temperature is one of the dominant climate variables which has a strong relationship with extreme rainfall events. In this study, a temperature-rainfall binning technique is used to evaluate the dependency of extreme rainfall on daily maximum temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation was found to describe the relationship between daily maximum temperature and a range of rainfall durations from 6 min up to 24 h for seven Australian weather stations, the stations being located in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. The analysis shows that the rainfall - temperature scaling varies with location, temperature and rainfall duration. The Darwin Airport station shows a negative scaling relationship, while the other six stations show a positive relationship. To identify the trend in scaling relationship over time the same analysis is conducted using data covering 10 year periods. Results indicate that the dependency of extreme rainfall on temperature also varies with the analysis period. Further, this dependency shows an increasing trend for more extreme short duration rainfall and a decreasing trend for average long duration rainfall events at most stations. Seasonal variations of the scale changing trends were analysed by categorizing the summer and autumn seasons in one group and the winter and spring seasons in another group. Most of 99th percentile of 6 min, 1 h and 24 h rain durations at Perth, Melbourne and Sydney stations show increasing trend for both groups while Adelaide and Darwin show decreasing trend. Furthermore, majority of scaling trend of 50th percentile are decreasing for both groups.

Rainfall Intensity and Frequency Explain Production Basis Risk in Cumulative Rain Index Insurance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus P.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Huffaker, Ray G.

2017-12-01

With minimal moral hazard and adverse selection, weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions through swift compensation at affordable premium. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing gives rise to production basis risk as the selected weather indexes do not sufficiently correspond to actual damages. To address this problem, we develop a stochastic yield model, built upon a stochastic soil moisture model driven by marked Poisson rainfall. Our analysis shows that even under similar temperature and rainfall amount yields can differ significantly; this was empirically supported by a 2-year field experiment in which rain-fed maize was grown under very similar total rainfall. Here, the year with more intense, less-frequent rainfall produces a better yield—a rare counter evidence to most climate change projections. Through a stochastic yield model, we demonstrate the crucial roles of rainfall intensity and frequency in determining the yield. Importantly, the model allows us to compute rainfall pattern-related basis risk inherent in cumulative rain index insurance. The model results and a case study herein clearly show that total rainfall is a poor indicator of yield, imposing unnecessary production basis risk on farmers and false-positive payouts on insurers. Incorporating rainfall intensity and frequency in the design of rain index insurance can offer farmers better protection, while maintaining the attractive features of the weather index insurance and thus fulfilling its promise of financial resilience.

Predictive performance of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides in Switzerland from gridded daily data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonarduzzi, Elena; Molnar, Peter; McArdell, Brian W.

2017-08-01

A high-resolution gridded daily precipitation data set was combined with a landslide inventory containing over 2000 events in the period 1972-2012 to analyze rainfall thresholds which lead to landsliding in Switzerland. We colocated triggering rainfall to landslides, developed distributions of triggering and nontriggering rainfall event properties, and determined rainfall thresholds and intensity-duration ID curves and validated their performance. The best predictive performance was obtained by the intensity-duration ID threshold curve, followed by peak daily intensity Imax and mean event intensity Imean. Event duration by itself had very low predictive power. A single country-wide threshold of Imax = 28 mm/d was extended into space by regionalization based on surface erodibility and local climate (mean daily precipitation). It was found that wetter local climate and lower erodibility led to significantly higher rainfall thresholds required to trigger landslides. However, we showed that the improvement in model performance due to regionalization was marginal and much lower than what can be achieved by having a high-quality landslide database. Reference cases in which the landslide locations and timing were randomized and the landslide sample size was reduced showed the sensitivity of the Imax rainfall threshold model. Jack-knife and cross-validation experiments demonstrated that the model was robust. The results reported here highlight the potential of using rainfall ID threshold curves and rainfall threshold values for predicting the occurrence of landslides on a country or regional scale with possible applications in landslide warning systems, even with daily data.

Combining spray nozzle simulators with meshes: characterization of rainfall intensity and drop properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, Sílvia C. P.; de Lima, João L. M. P.; de Lima, M. Isabel P.

2013-04-01

Rainfall simulators can be a powerful tool to increase our understanding of hydrological and geomorphological processes. Nevertheless, rainfall simulators' design and operation might be rather demanding, for achieving specific rainfall intensity distributions and drop characteristics. The pressurized simulators have some advantages over the non-pressurized simulators: drops do not rely on gravity to reach terminal velocity, but are sprayed out under pressure; pressurized simulators also yield a broad range of drop sizes in comparison with drop-formers simulators. The main purpose of this study was to explore in the laboratory the potential of combining spray nozzle simulators with meshes in order to change rainfall characteristics (rainfall intensity and diameters and fall speed of drops). Different types of spray nozzles were tested, such as single full-cone and multiple full-cone nozzles. The impact of the meshes on the simulated rain was studied by testing different materials (i.e. plastic and steel meshes), square apertures and wire thicknesses, and different vertical distances between the nozzle and the meshes underneath. The diameter and fall speed of the rain drops were measured using a Laser Precipitation Monitor (Thies Clima). The rainfall intensity range and coefficients of uniformity of the sprays and the drop size distribution, fall speed and kinetic energy were analysed. Results show that when meshes intercept drop trajectories the spatial distribution of rainfall intensity and the drop size distribution are affected. As the spray nozzles generate typically small drop sizes and narrow drop size distributions, meshes can be used to promote the formation of bigger drops and random their landing positions.

How effective is the new generation of GPM satellite precipitation in characterizing the rainfall variability over Malaysia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, Mohd Rizaludin; Hashim, Mazlan; Reba, Mohd Nadzri Mohd

2017-08-01

We investigated the potential of the new generation of satellite precipitation product from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) to characterize the rainfall in Malaysia. Most satellite precipitation products have limited ability to precisely characterize the high dynamic rainfall variation that occurred at both time and scale in this humid tropical region due to the coarse grid size to meet the physical condition of the smaller land size, sub-continent and islands. Prior to the status quo, an improved satellite precipitation was required to accurately measure the rainfall and its distribution. Subsequently, the newly released of GPM precipitation product at half-hourly and 0.1° resolution served an opportunity to anticipate the aforementioned conflict. Nevertheless, related evidence was not found and therefore, this study made an initiative to fill the gap. A total of 843 rain gauges over east (Borneo) and west Malaysia (Peninsular) were used to evaluate the rainfall the GPM rainfall data. The assessment covered all critical rainy seasons which associated with Asian Monsoon including northeast (Nov. - Feb.), southwest (May - Aug.) and their subsequent inter-monsoon period (Mar. - Apr. & Sep. - Oct.). The ability of GPM to provide quantitative rainfall estimates and qualitative spatial rainfall patterns were analysed. Our results showed that the GPM had good capacity to depict the spatial rainfall patterns in less heterogeneous rainfall patterns (Spearman's correlation, 0.591 to 0.891) compared to the clustered one (r = 0.368 to 0.721). Rainfall intensity and spatial heterogeneity that is largely driven by seasonal monsoon has significant influence on GPM ability to resolve local rainfall patterns. In quantitative rainfall estimation, large errors can be primarily associated with the rainfall intensity increment. 77% of the error variation can be explained through rainfall intensity particularly the high intensity (> 35 mm d-1). A strong relationship between GPM rainfall and error was found from heavy ( 35 mm d-1) to violent rain (160 mm d-1). The output of this study provides reference regarding the performance of GPM data for respective hydrology studies in this region.

Models are likely to underestimate increase in heavy rainfall in regions with high rainfall intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borodina, Aleksandra; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

2017-04-01

Model projections of heavy rainfall are uncertain. On timescales of few decades, internal variability plays an important role and therefore poses a challenge to detect robust model responses. We show that spatial aggregation across regions with intense heavy rainfall events, - defined as grid cells with high annual precipitation maxima (Rx1day), - allows to reduce the role of internal variability and thus to detect a robust signal during the historical period. This enables us to evaluate models with observational datasets and to constrain long-term projections of the intensification of heavy rainfall, i.e., to recalibrate full model ensemble consistent with observations resulting in narrower range of projections. In the regions of intense heavy rainfall, we found two present-day metrics that are related to a model's projection. The first metric is the observed relationship between the area-weighted mean of the annual precipitation maxima (Rx1day) and the global land temperatures. The second is the fraction of land exhibiting statistically significant relationships between local annual precipitation maxima (Rx1day) and global land temperatures over the historical period. The models that simulate high values in both metrics are those that are in better agreement with observations and show strong future intensification of heavy rainfall. This implies that changes in heavy rainfall are likely to be more intense than anticipated from the multi-model mean.

Rainfall-induced soil aggregate breakdown in field experiments at different rainfall intensities and initial soil moisture conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Pu; Thorlacius, Sigurdur; Keller, Thomas; Keller, Martin; Schulin, Rainer

2017-04-01

Soil aggregate breakdown under rainfall impact is an important process in interrill erosion, but is not represented explicitly in water erosion models. Aggregate breakdown not only reduces infiltration through surface sealing during rainfall, but also determines the size distribution of the disintegrated fragments and thus their availability for size-selective sediment transport and re-deposition. An adequate representation of the temporal evolution of fragment mass size distribution (FSD) during rainfall events and the dependence of this dynamics on factors such as rainfall intensity and soil moisture content may help improve mechanistic erosion models. Yet, little is known about the role of those factors in the dynamics of aggregate breakdown under field conditions. In this study, we conducted a series of artificial rainfall experiments on a field silt loam soil to investigate aggregate breakdown dynamics at different rainfall intensity (RI) and initial soil water content (IWC). We found that the evolution of FSD in the course of a rainfall event followed a consistent two-stage pattern in all treatments. The fragment mean weight diameter (MWD) drastically decreased in an approximately exponential way at the beginning of a rainfall event, followed by a further slow linear decrease in the second stage. We proposed an empirical model that describes this temporal pattern of MWD decrease during a rainfall event and accounts for the effects of RI and IWC on the rate parameters. The model was successfully tested using an independent dataset, showing its potential to be used in erosion models for the prediction of aggregate breakdown. The FSD at the end of the experimental rainfall events differed significantly among treatments, indicating that different aggregate breakdown mechanisms responded differently to the variation in initial soil moisture and rainfall intensity. These results provide evidence that aggregate breakdown dynamics needs to be considered in a case-specific manner in modelling sediment mobilization and transport during water erosion events.

Effects of variable regolith depth, hydraulic properties, and rainfall on debris-flow initiation during the September 2013 northern Colorado Front Range rainstorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, R. L.; Coe, J. A.; Kean, J. W.; Jones, E. S.; Godt, J.

2015-12-01

Heavy rainfall during 9 - 13 September 2013 induced about 1100 debris flows in the foothills and mountains of the northern Colorado Front Range. Weathered bedrock was partially exposed in the basal surfaces of many of the shallow source areas at depths ranging from 0.2 to 5 m. Typical values of saturated hydraulic conductivity of soils and regolith units mapped in the source areas range from about 10-4 - 10-6 m/s, with a median value of 2.8 x 10-5 m/s based on number of source areas in each map unit. Rainfall intensities varied spatially and temporally, from 0 to 2.5 x 10-5 m/s (90 mm/hour), with two periods of relatively heavy rainfall on September 12 - 13. The distribution of debris flows appears to correlate with total storm rainfall, and reported times of greatest landslide activity coincide with times of heaviest rainfall. Process-based models of rainfall infiltration and slope stability (TRIGRS) representing the observed ranges of regolith depth, hydraulic conductivity, and rainfall intensity, provide additional insights about the timing and distribution of debris flows from this storm. For example, small debris flows from shallower source areas (<2 m) occurred late on September 11 and in the early morning of September 12, whereas large debris flows from deeper (3 - 5 m) source areas in the western part of the affected area occurred late on September 12. Timing of these flows can be understood in terms of the time required for pore pressure rise depending on regolith depth and rainfall intensity. The variable hydraulic properties combined with variable regolith depth and slope angles account for much of the observed range in timing in areas of similar rainfall intensity and duration. Modeling indicates that the greatest and most rapid pore pressure rise likely occurred in areas of highest rainfall intensity and amount. This is consistent with the largest numbers of debris flows occurring on steep canyon walls in areas of high total storm rainfall.

Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sreekanth, T. S.

Large Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics begin{center} begin{center} Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) , and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar, Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT Micro-physical parameters of rainfall such as rain drop size & fall speed distribution, mass weighted mean diameter, Total no. of rain drops, Normalisation parameters for rain intensity, maximum & minimum drop diameter from different rain intensity ranges, from both stratiform and convective rain events were analysed. Convective -Stratiform classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill was also used. Events which cannot be included in both types are termed as 'mixed precipitation' and identified separately. For the three years 2011, 2012 & 2013, rain events from both convective & stratiform origin are identified from three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Micro-physical characterisation was done for each rain events and analysed. Ground based and radar observations were made and classification of stratiform and convective rainfall was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001). Radar bright band and non bright band analysis was done for confimation of stratifom and convective rain respectievely. Atmospheric electric field data from electric field mill is also used for confirmation of convection during convective events. Statistical analyses revealed that the standard deviation of rain drop size in higher rain rates are higher than in lower rain rates. Normalised drop size distribution is ploted for selected events from both forms. Inter relations between various precipitation parameters were analysed in three seasons.

Impacts of different rainfall patterns on hyporheic zone under transient conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Suning; Chui, Ting Fong May

2018-06-01

The hyporheic zone (HZ) plays an important role in stream ecology. Previous studies have mainly focused on the factors influencing the HZ in the steady state. However, the exchange between surface water and groundwater in the HZ can become transient during a storm. This study investigates the impacts of different rainfall patterns (varying in intensity and duration) on the HZ under transient conditions. A two-dimensional numerical model of a 10-m long and 2-m deep domain is developed, in which the streambed consists of a series of dunes. Brinkman-Darcy and Navier-Stokes equations are respectively solved for groundwater and surface water, and velocity and pressure are coupled at the interface (i.e., the streambed surface). To compare the results under different transient conditions, this study proposes two indicators, i.e., the influential time (IT, the time required for the HZ to return to its initial state once it starts to change) and the influential depth (ID, the maximum increment in the HZ depth). To detect the extent to which the HZ undergoes significant spatial changes, moving split-window and inflection point tests are conducted. The results indicate that rainfall intensity (RI) and rainfall duration (RD) both display logarithmic relationships with the IT and ID with high coefficients of determination, but only between certain lower and upper thresholds of the RI and RD. Moreover, the distributions of the IT and ID as a function of the RI and RD are mapped using the surface spline and kriging interpolation methods to facilitate future prediction of the IT and ID. In addition, it is observed that the IT has a linear negative correlation with the groundwater response while the ID is not affected by different groundwater responses. All of the derived relationships can be used to predict the impacts of a future rainfall event on the HZ.

Objective definition of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire flash floods and debris flows in the area burned by the Waldo Canyon fire, Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Kean, Jason W.

2015-01-01

We present an objectively defined rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) threshold for the initiation of flash floods and debris flows for basins recently burned in the 2012 Waldo Canyon fire near Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA. Our results are based on 453 rainfall records which include 8 instances of hazardous flooding and debris flow from 10 July 2012 to 14 August 2013. We objectively defined the thresholds by maximizing the number of correct predictions of debris flow or flood occurrence while minimizing the rate of both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) errors. The equation I = 11.6D−0.7 represents the I-D threshold (I, in mm/h) for durations (D, in hours) ranging from 0.083 h (5 min) to 1 h for basins burned by the 2012 Waldo Canyon fire. As periods of high-intensity rainfall over short durations (less than 1 h) produced all of the debris flow and flood events, real-time monitoring of rainfall conditions will result in very short lead times for early-warning. Our results highlight the need for improved forecasting of the rainfall rates during short-duration, high-intensity convective rainfall events.

Using rainfall radar data to improve interpolated maps of dose rate in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Hiemstra, Paul H; Pebesma, Edzer J; Heuvelink, Gerard B M; Twenhöfel, Chris J W

2010-12-01

The radiation monitoring network in the Netherlands is designed to detect and track increased radiation levels, dose rate more specifically, in 10-minute intervals. The network consists of 153 monitoring stations. Washout of radon progeny by rainfall is the most important cause of natural variations in dose rate. The increase in dose rate at a given time is a function of the amount of progeny decaying, which in turn is a balance between deposition of progeny by rainfall and radioactive decay. The increase in progeny is closely related to average rainfall intensity over the last 2.5h. We included decay of progeny by using weighted averaged rainfall intensity, where the weight decreases back in time. The decrease in weight is related to the half-life of radon progeny. In this paper we show for a rainstorm on the 20th of July 2007 that weighted averaged rainfall intensity estimated from rainfall radar images, collected every 5min, performs much better as a predictor of increases in dose rate than using the non-averaged rainfall intensity. In addition, we show through cross-validation that including weighted averaged rainfall intensity in an interpolated map using universal kriging (UK) does not necessarily lead to a more accurate map. This might be attributed to the high density of monitoring stations in comparison to the spatial extent of a typical rain event. Reducing the network density improved the accuracy of the map when universal kriging was used instead of ordinary kriging (no trend). Consequently, in a less dense network the positive influence of including a trend is likely to increase. Furthermore, we suspect that UK better reproduces the sharp boundaries present in rainfall maps, but that the lack of short-distance monitoring station pairs prevents cross-validation from revealing this effect. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of flood hazard in a combined sewer system in Reykjavik city centre.

PubMed

Hlodversdottir, Asta Osk; Bjornsson, Brynjolfur; Andradottir, Hrund Olof; Eliasson, Jonas; Crochet, Philippe

2015-01-01

Short-duration precipitation bursts can cause substantial property damage and pose operational risks for wastewater managers. The objective of this study was to assess the present and possible future flood hazard in the combined sewer system in Reykjavik city centre. The catchment is characterised by two hills separated by a plain. A large portion of the pipes in the aging network are smaller than the current minimum diameter of 250 mm. Runoff and sewer flows were modelled using the MIKE URBAN software package incorporating both historical precipitation and synthetic storms derived from annual maximum rainfall data. Results suggest that 3% of public network manholes were vulnerable to flooding during an 11-year long rainfall sequence. A Chicago Design Storm (CDS) incorporating a 10-minute rainfall burst with a 5-year return period predicted twice as many flooded manholes at similar locations. A 20% increase in CDS intensity increased the number of flooded manholes and surface flood volume by 70% and 80%, respectively. The flood volume tripled if rainfall increase were combined with urban re-development, leading to a 20% increase in the runoff coefficient. Results highlight the need for reducing network vulnerabilities, which include decreased pipe diameters and low or drastically varying pipe grades.

Analysis of Rainfall Infiltration Law in Unsaturated Soil Slope

PubMed Central

Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

2014-01-01

In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering the characteristics of slope and rainfall, the key factors affecting rainfall infiltration of slope, including hydraulic properties, water storage capacity (θ s - θ r), soil types, rainfall intensities, and antecedent and subsequent infiltration rates on unsaturated soil slope, are discussed by using theory analysis and numerical simulation technology. Based on critical factors changing, this paper presents three calculation models of rainfall infiltrability for unsaturated slope, including (1) infiltration model considering rainfall intensity; (2) effective rainfall model considering antecedent rainfall; (3) infiltration model considering comprehensive factors. Based on the technology of system response, the relationship of rainfall and infiltration is described, and the prototype of regression model of rainfall infiltration is given, in order to determine the amount of rain penetration during a rain process. PMID:24672332

Analysis of rainfall infiltration law in unsaturated soil slope.

PubMed

Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

2014-01-01

In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering the characteristics of slope and rainfall, the key factors affecting rainfall infiltration of slope, including hydraulic properties, water storage capacity (θs - θr), soil types, rainfall intensities, and antecedent and subsequent infiltration rates on unsaturated soil slope, are discussed by using theory analysis and numerical simulation technology. Based on critical factors changing, this paper presents three calculation models of rainfall infiltrability for unsaturated slope, including (1) infiltration model considering rainfall intensity; (2) effective rainfall model considering antecedent rainfall; (3) infiltration model considering comprehensive factors. Based on the technology of system response, the relationship of rainfall and infiltration is described, and the prototype of regression model of rainfall infiltration is given, in order to determine the amount of rain penetration during a rain process.

Natural and anthropogenic phenomena affecting the historical landslide trend in the Subappennino Dauno (southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lonigro, Teresa; Santaloia, Francesca; Polemio, Maurizio

2014-05-01

The aim of this work is to present a methodology, based both on the use methods of time series analyses and of geospatial analyses of monthly climatic data (rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, and temperature), annual maximum of short-duration rainfall (from 1 hour to 5 days), historical modification of land use, and population variations in order to characterise the effects of these variables on the occurrence of landsliding in Daunia area, located on the eastern margin of the Southern Apennines thrust belt (southern Italy). Rock strata (mainly) interbedded with clayey marls, clays and silty-clays outcrop in this area. Due to the intense strain history, these successions are found to be from stratified to deeply fractured, up to be disrupted and floating as blocks in a clayey matrix. In turn, the clay units are laminated to intensely fissured and characterised by very poor mechanical properties (Santaloia et al., 2012). The statistical analyses deal with data coming from published databases, integrated by public and private documents, referring to a wide time span. Climate data records from 1877 to 2008 were elaborated, in particular the data coming from sixteen rainfall gauges, ten of which were also thermometric. Moreover, some monthly indices of rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, temperature, and landslide occurrence were introduced to simplify the analysis of parameters, characterised by spatial and temporal variability. The population records are from the 19th century up to now while the time period of reference for the land use data is from 1930 up to now. As concerns the landslide events, they were collected from 1918 to 2006. The main source of these records is the AVI database, an existing Italian database that collects data about damaging floods and landslides from 1918 to 1996. This dataset was integrated up to 2006 by consulting newspapers, scientific publications, technical reports, written by the researchers of the CNR-IRPI for the Civil Protection, and also documents belonging to a research project (PS_119; Cotecchia et al. 2010). According to the landslide data collected, the landslide events resulted to be 175 in the study area. The trend analyses show that the landslide occurrence was increased with the time, despite of the rainfall and temperature data are not prone to landsliding. As a matter of fact, the trend of both the monthly rainfall and the rainfall intensity decreases, and the temperature and the wet days show a positive trend during the period of reference. The trend of the short-duration rainfall results generally to decrease. Not existing an evident relationship between climate variability and the increase of landslide occurrence, some other factors should be considered, as, for instance, the poor mechanical soil properties, the role of anthropogenic modifications and the mismanagement of risk-prone areas. In this regards, the preliminary results obtained from the data analyses of the land use and the populations could partly justify the increasing trend of landslide occurrence. More details on previous results of this research activity were recently published (Cotecchia et al., 2010; Polemio and Lonigro, 2011 and 2013; Santaloia et al., 2012). References Cotecchia F., Santaloia F., Lollino P., C. Vitone, G. Mitaritonna (2010) "Deterministic landslide hazard assessment at regional scale". Geoflorida 2010, : 3130-3139. Santaloia F, Cotecchia F, Vitone C (2012) "Applicazione dei metodi avanzati al fronte appenninico apulo-lucano: analisi di I livello. In: Cascini L. (Ed) "Criteri di zonazione della suscettibilità e della pericolosità da frane innescate da eventi estremi (piogge e sisma)"; 130-140, Padova:Composervice srl. Polemio M., Lonigro T. (2011) "Variabilità climatica e ricorrenza delle calamità idrogeologiche in Puglia". In: "Le modificazioni climatiche e i rischi naturali", Polemio M. (Ed.), CNR IRPI, Bari, pp. 13-16. Polemio M., Lonigro T. (2013) "Climate variability and landslide occurrence in Apulia (southern Italy)". In: C. Margottini et al. (eds.), Landslide Science and Practice, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 4: 37-41.

Rainfall continuous time stochastic simulation for a wet climate in the Cantabric Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rebole, Juan P.; Lopez, Jose J.; Garcia-Guzman, Adela

2010-05-01

Rain is the result of a series of complex atmospheric processes which are influenced by numerous factors. This complexity makes its simulation practically unfeasible from a physical basis, advising the use of stochastic diagrams. These diagrams, which are based on observed characteristics (Todorovic and Woolhiser, 1975), allow the introduction of renewal alternating processes, that account for the occurrence of rainfall at different time lapses (Markov chains are a particular case, where lapses can be described by exponential distributions). Thus, a sequential rainfall process can be defined as a temporal series in which rainfall events (periods in which rainfall is recorded) alternate with non rain events (periods in which no rainfall is recorded). The variables of a temporal rain sequence have been characterized (duration of the rainfall event, duration of the non rainfall event, average intensity of the rain in the rain event, and a temporal distribution of the amount of rain in the rain event) in a wet climate such as that of the coastal area of Guipúzcoa. The study has been performed from two series recorded at the meteorological stations of Igueldo-San Sebastián and Fuenterrabia / Airport (data every ten minutes and for its hourly aggregation). As a result of this work, the variables satisfactorily fitted the following distribution functions: the duration of the rain event to a exponential function; the duration of the dry event to a truncated exponential mixed distribution; the average intensity to a Weibull distribution; and the distribution of the rain fallen to the Beta distribution. The characterization was made for an hourly aggregation of the recorded interval of ten minutes. The parameters of the fitting functions were better obtained by means of the maximum likelihood method than the moment method. The parameters obtained from the characterization were used to develop a stochastic rainfall process simulation model by means of a three states Markov chain (Hutchinson, 1990), performed in an hourly basis by García-Guzmán (1993) and Castro et al. (1997, 2005 ). Simulation process results were valid in the hourly case for all the four described variables, with a slightly better response in Fuenterrabia than in Igueldo. In summary, all the variables were better simulated in Fuenterrabia than in Igueldo. Fuenterrabia data series is shorter and with longer sequences without missing data, compared to Igueldo. The latter shows higher number of missing data events, whereas its mean duration is longer in Fuenterrabia.

Extreme flood event analysis in Indonesia based on rainfall intensity and recharge capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narulita, Ida; Ningrum, Widya

2018-02-01

Indonesia is very vulnerable to flood disaster because it has high rainfall events throughout the year. Flood is categorized as the most important hazard disaster because it is causing social, economic and human losses. The purpose of this study is to analyze extreme flood event based on satellite rainfall dataset to understand the rainfall characteristic (rainfall intensity, rainfall pattern, etc.) that happened before flood disaster in the area for monsoonal, equatorial and local rainfall types. Recharge capacity will be analyzed using land cover and soil distribution. The data used in this study are CHIRPS rainfall satellite data on 0.05 ° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution, and GSMap satellite rainfall dataset operated by JAXA on 1-hour temporal resolution and 0.1 ° spatial resolution, land use and soil distribution map for recharge capacity analysis. The rainfall characteristic before flooding, and recharge capacity analysis are expected to become the important information for flood mitigation in Indonesia.

Seasonal Transitions and the Westerly Jet in the Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, W.; Chiang, J. C. H.

2015-12-01

The Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) was characterized by a trend to weaker monsoon intensity paced by orbital insolation. Here, we attribute the stronger EASM intensity in the early-mid Holocene to changes in the timing of the transition between the EASM seasonal stages - Spring, pre Mei- Yu, Mei-Yu, and Summer - during that time. Following the recent 'jet transition hypothesis' (Chiang et al., 2015), we explore the role of north-south displacement of the westerlies relative to the Tibetan Plateau that is hypothesized to control the downstream EASM seasonality changes across the Holocene. To this end, we analyze model simulations of the Holocene EASM, compare the simulated Holocene climate with the paleodata observations, and examine the role of atmospheric circulation and specifically the westerlies in modulating the East Asia summer climate. The PMIP3 climate model simulations suggest that, compared to the pre-industrial, the Mei-Yu onset and the transition from Mei-Yu to Summer rainfall occur earlier in the mid-Holocene. The advanced seasonal rainfall transition is accompanied by the weakened and northward-shifted upstream westerlies. In our atmospheric general circulation model (coupled to a slab ocean) simulations of various time periods across the Holocene (9ka, 6ka, 3ka, and pre-industrial), we quantitatively show that the timing and the length of each rainfall stage are closely related to the jet position over East Asia. We also show that the simulated changes in the maximum annual rainfall band and dust emission over East Asia largely agree with the paleo-proxy observations. In addition, we find that changes to the seasonal rainfall transitions, latitudinal westerly position, and stationary eddy activity over East Asia co-vary across the Holocene. In particular, we argue that the changes in the rainfall seasonal transitions are tied to an altered stationary wave pattern, resembling today's the so-called 'Silk Road Pattern', riding along the westerly jet. We end by discussing the mechanism that is proposed to explain the changed EASM seasonality across the Holocene.

Ensemble climate projections of mean and extreme rainfall over Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

2017-01-01

A systematic ensemble high resolution climate modelling study over Vietnam has been performed using the PRECIS model developed by the Hadley Center in UK. A 5 member subset of the 17-member Perturbed Physics Ensembles (PPE) of the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project were simulated and analyzed. The PRECIS model simulations were conducted at a horizontal resolution of 25 km for the baseline period 1961-1990 and a future climate period 2061-2090 under scenario A1B. The results of model simulations show that the model was able to reproduce the mean state of climate over Vietnam when compared to observations. The annual cycles and seasonal averages of precipitation over different sub-regions of Vietnam show the ability of the model in also reproducing the observed peak and magnitude of monthly rainfall. The climate extremes of precipitation were also fairly well captured. Projections of future climate show both increases and decreases in the mean climate over different regions of Vietnam. The analyses of future extreme rainfall using the STARDEX precipitation indices show an increase in 90th percentile precipitation (P90p) over the northern provinces (15-25%) and central highland (5-10%) and over southern Vietnam (up to 5%). The total number of wet days (Prcp) indicates a decrease of about 5-10% all over Vietnam. Consequently, an increase in the wet day rainfall intensity (SDII), is likely inferring that the projected rainfall would be much more severe and intense which have the potential to cause flooding in some regions. Risks due to extreme drought also exist in other regions where the number of wet days decreases. In addition, the maximum 5 day consecutive rainfall (R5d) increases by 20-25% over northern Vietnam but decreases in a similar range over the central and southern Vietnam. These results have strong implications for the management water resources, agriculture, bio diversity and economy and serve as some useful findings to be considered by the policy makers within a wider range of climate uncertainties.

Simulating transport of nitrogen and phosphorus in a Cambisol after natural and simulated intense rainfall.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Vander; Pinheiro, Adilson; Castro, Nilza Maria dos Reis

2014-05-01

Intense rainfall adversely affects agricultural areas, causing transport of pollutants. Physically-based hydrological models to simulate flows of water and chemical substances can be used to help decision-makers adopt measures which reduce such problems. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of SWAP and ANIMO models for simulating transport of water, nitrate and phosphorus nutrients, during intense rainfall events generated by a simulator, and during natural rainfall, on a volumetric drainage lysimeter. The models were calibrated and verified using daily time series and simulated rainfall measured at 10-minute intervals. For daily time-intervals, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.865 for the calibration period and 0.805 for verification. Under simulated rainfall, these coefficients were greater than 0.56. The pattern of both nitrate and phosphate concentrations in daily drainage flow under simulated rainfall was acceptably reproduced by the ANIMO model. In the simulated rainfall, loads of nitrate transported in surface runoff varied between 0.08 and 8.46 kg ha(-1), and in drainage form the lysimeter, between 2.44 and 112.57 kg ha(-1). In the case of phosphate, the loads transported in surface runoff varied between 0.002 and 0.504 kg ha(-1), and in drainage, between 0.005 and 1.107 kg ha(-1). The use of the two models SWAP and ANIMO shows the magnitudes of nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes transported by natural and simulated intense rainfall in an agricultural area with different soil management procedures, as required by decision makers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rainfall erosivity in Europe.

PubMed

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Klik, Andreas; Rousseva, Svetla; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Michaelides, Silas; Hrabalíková, Michaela; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Beguería, Santiago; Alewell, Christine

2015-04-01

Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based on the best available datasets. Data have been collected from 1541 precipitation stations in all European Union (EU) Member States and Switzerland, with temporal resolutions of 5 to 60 min. The R-factor values calculated from precipitation data of different temporal resolutions were normalised to R-factor values with temporal resolutions of 30 min using linear regression functions. Precipitation time series ranged from a minimum of 5 years to a maximum of 40 years. The average time series per precipitation station is around 17.1 years, the most datasets including the first decade of the 21st century. Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months, average temperature), elevation and latitude/longitude. The mean R-factor for the EU plus Switzerland is 722 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1), with the highest values (>1000 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Mediterranean and alpine regions and the lowest (<500 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Nordic countries. The erosivity density (erosivity normalised to annual precipitation amounts) was also the highest in Mediterranean regions which implies high risk for erosive events and floods. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validating and Improving Interrill Erosion Equations

PubMed Central

Zhang, Feng-Bao; Wang, Zhan-Li; Yang, Ming-Yi

2014-01-01

Existing interrill erosion equations based on mini-plot experiments have largely ignored the effects of slope length and plot size on interrill erosion rate. This paper describes a series of simulated rainfall experiments which were conducted according to a randomized factorial design for five slope lengths (0.4, 0.8, 1.2, 1.6, and 2 m) at a width of 0.4 m, five slope gradients (17%, 27%, 36%, 47%, and 58%), and five rainfall intensities (48, 62.4, 102, 149, and 170 mm h−1) to perform a systematic validation of existing interrill erosion equations based on mini-plots. The results indicated that the existing interrill erosion equations do not adequately describe the relationships between interrill erosion rate and its influencing factors with increasing slope length and rainfall intensity. Univariate analysis of variance showed that runoff rate, rainfall intensity, slope gradient, and slope length had significant effects on interrill erosion rate and that their interactions were significant at p = 0.01. An improved interrill erosion equation was constructed by analyzing the relationships of sediment concentration with rainfall intensity, slope length, and slope gradient. In the improved interrill erosion equation, the runoff rate and slope factor are the same as in the interrill erosion equation in the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP), with the weight of rainfall intensity adjusted by an exponent of 0.22 and a slope length term added with an exponent of −0.25. Using experimental data from WEPP cropland soil field interrill erodibility experiments, it has been shown that the improved interrill erosion equation describes the relationship between interrill erosion rate and runoff rate, rainfall intensity, slope gradient, and slope length reasonably well and better than existing interrill erosion equations. PMID:24516624

Nonstationary Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Drainge Infrastructure Coping with Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Byung Sik; Jeung, Se Jin; Lee, Dong Seop; Han, Woo Suk

2015-04-01

As the abnormal rainfall condition has been more and more frequently happen and serious by climate change and variabilities, the question whether the design of drainage system could be prepared with abnormal rainfall condition or not has been on the rise. Usually, the drainage system has been designed by rainfall I-D-F (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curve with assumption that I-D-F curve is stationary. The design approach of the drainage system has limitation not to consider the extreme rainfall condition of which I-D-F curve is non-stationary by climate change and variabilities. Therefore, the assumption that the I-D-F curve is stationary to design drainage system maybe not available in the climate change period, because climate change has changed the characteristics of extremes rainfall event to be non-stationary. In this paper, design rainfall by rainfall duration and non-stationary I-D-F curve are derived by the conditional GEV distribution considering non-stationary of rainfall characteristics. Furthermore, the effect of designed peak flow with increase of rainfall intensity was analyzed by distributed rainfall-runoff model, S-RAT(Spatial Runoff Assessment Tool). Although there are some difference by rainfall duration, the traditional I-D-F curves underestimates the extreme rainfall events for high-frequency rainfall condition. As a result, this paper suggest that traditional I-D-F curves could not be suitable for the design of drainage system under climate change condition. Keywords : Drainage system, Climate Change, non-stationary, I-D-F curves This research was supported by a grant 'Development of multi-function debris flow control technique considering extreme rainfall event' [NEMA-Natural-2014-74] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of KOREA

Daily rainfall statistics of TRMM and CMORPH: A case for trans-boundary Gandak River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Brijesh; Patra, Kanhu Charan; Lakshmi, Venkat

2016-07-01

Satellite precipitation products offer an opportunity to evaluate extreme events (flood and drought) for areas where rainfall data are not available or rain gauge stations are sparse. In this study, daily precipitation amount and frequency of TRMM 3B42V.7 and CMORPH products have been validated against daily rain gauge precipitation for the monsoon months (June-September or JJAS) from 2005-2010 in the trans-boundary Gandak River basin. The analysis shows that the both TRMM and CMORPH can detect rain and no-rain events, but they fail to capture the intensity of rainfall. The detection of precipitation amount is strongly dependent on the topography. In the plains areas, TRMM product is capable of capturing high-intensity rain events but in the hilly regions, it underestimates the amount of high-intensity rain events. On the other hand, CMORPH entirely fails to capture the high-intensity rain events but does well with low-intensity rain events in both hilly regions as well as the plain region. The continuous variable verification method shows better agreement of TRMM rainfall products with rain gauge data. TRMM fares better in the prediction of probability of occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events, but it underestimates intensity at high altitudes. This implies that TRMM precipitation estimates can be used for flood-related studies only after bias adjustment for the topography.

Modeling the probability distribution of peak discharge for infiltrating hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baiamonte, Giorgio; Singh, Vijay P.

2017-07-01

Hillslope response plays a fundamental role in the prediction of peak discharge at the basin outlet. The peak discharge for the critical duration of rainfall and its probability distribution are needed for designing urban infrastructure facilities. This study derives the probability distribution, denoted as GABS model, by coupling three models: (1) the Green-Ampt model for computing infiltration, (2) the kinematic wave model for computing discharge hydrograph from the hillslope, and (3) the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) model for computing design rainfall intensity. The Hortonian mechanism for runoff generation is employed for computing the surface runoff hydrograph. Since the antecedent soil moisture condition (ASMC) significantly affects the rate of infiltration, its effect on the probability distribution of peak discharge is investigated. Application to a watershed in Sicily, Italy, shows that with the increase of probability, the expected effect of ASMC to increase the maximum discharge diminishes. Only for low values of probability, the critical duration of rainfall is influenced by ASMC, whereas its effect on the peak discharge seems to be less for any probability. For a set of parameters, the derived probability distribution of peak discharge seems to be fitted by the gamma distribution well. Finally, an application to a small watershed, with the aim to test the possibility to arrange in advance the rational runoff coefficient tables to be used for the rational method, and a comparison between peak discharges obtained by the GABS model with those measured in an experimental flume for a loamy-sand soil were carried out.

New insights into debris-flow hazards from an extraordinary event in the Colorado Front Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coe, Jeffrey A.; Kean, Jason W.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Baum, Rex L.; Jones, Eric S.; Gochis, David; Anderson, Gregory S

2016-01-01

Rainfall on 9–13 September 2013 triggered at least 1,138 debris flows in a 3430 km2 area of the Colorado Front Range. The historical record reveals that the occurrence of these flows over such a large area in the interior of North America is highly unusual. Rainfall that triggered the debris flows began after ~75 mm of antecedent rain had fallen, a relatively low amount compared to other parts of the United States. Most flows were triggered in response to two intense rainfall periods, one 12.5-hour-long period on 11–12 September, and one 8-hour-long period on 12 September. The maximum 10 min. intensities during these periods were 67 and 39 mm/hr. Ninety-five percent of flows initiated in canyons and on hogbacks at elevations lower than a widespread erosion surface of low slope and relief (25°), predominantly south- and east-facing slopes with upslope contributing areas 3300 m2. Areal concentrations of debris flows revealed that colluvial soils formed on sedimentary rocks were more susceptible to flows than soils on crystalline rocks. This event should serve as an alert to government authorities, emergency responders, and residents in the Front Range and other interior continental areas with steep slopes. Widespread debris flows in these areas occur infrequently but may pose a greater risk than in areas with shorter return periods, because the public is typically unprepared for them.

Comparing and Linking Post-fire Hillslope Erosion and Channel Change for Different Storm Types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, Lee; Kampf, Stephanie; Brogan, Dan; Schmeer, Sarah; Nelson, Peter

2016-04-01

Moderate and high severity wildfires can greatly reduce infiltration rates, leading to orders of magnitude increases in hillslope-scale runoff and erosion rates. These increases can cause dramatic downstream channel change, with post-fire deposition being most common, but this depends on the number, magnitude and timing of storm events. The objective of this study is to compare post-fire hillslope erosion rates and downstream channel change from two distinct rainfall events approximately one year after burning. The first was a set of relatively typical, higher-intensity convective storms in June-August 2013, and the second was a highly unusual, week-long ~270 mm rainstorm in September 2013. The study was conducted in two ~15 km2 watersheds that had two-thirds of their area burned at high or moderate severity by 2012 High Park Fire in northcentral Colorado, USA. Hillslope erosion was measured with sediment fences at 29 sites grouped into five clusters, with each cluster having an associated tipping bucket rain gage. Downstream channel change was monitored at approximately ten cross-sections in each of the two watersheds, Skin Gulch and Hill Gulch. Twelve summer storms produced an overall mean hillslope erosion of 6 Mg ha-1, with higher rainfall intensities at lower elevations and in Skin Gulch causing higher sediment yields. The higher sediment yields in Skin Gulch caused substantial downstream deposition of up to 0.8 m at most cross-sections. Generally lower rainfall in Hill Gulch resulted in less Horton overland flow and hence lower erosion rates and much less downstream deposition. The September storm had roughly twice as much rainfall as the summer thunderstorms, but there were much lower peak rainfall intensities and hillslope-scale sediment yields except where shallow bedrock induced saturation overland flow. The much longer duration of the September storm resulted in sustained high flows, and these flows plus the lower hillslope erosion caused most of the cross-sections to incise rather than aggrade. Maximum mean bed incision was nearly one meter and some cross-sections also exhibited considerable lateral migration, removing much of the aggraded sediment from the previous two summer storm seasons. The results indicate that: 1) sediment yields are best correlated with the amount of precipitation above a given intensity threshold; 2) this threshold tends to increase over time with increasing surface cover; and 3) the standard trajectory of post-fire channel change can be completely altered by extreme storm events.

Assessment of measurement errors and dynamic calibration methods for three different tipping bucket rain gauges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shedekar, Vinayak S.; King, Kevin W.; Fausey, Norman R.; Soboyejo, Alfred B. O.; Harmel, R. Daren; Brown, Larry C.

2016-09-01

Three different models of tipping bucket rain gauges (TBRs), viz. HS-TB3 (Hydrological Services Pty Ltd.), ISCO-674 (Isco, Inc.) and TR-525 (Texas Electronics, Inc.), were calibrated in the lab to quantify measurement errors across a range of rainfall intensities (5 mm·h- 1 to 250 mm·h- 1) and three different volumetric settings. Instantaneous and cumulative values of simulated rainfall were recorded at 1, 2, 5, 10 and 20-min intervals. All three TBR models showed a substantial deviation (α = 0.05) in measurements from actual rainfall depths, with increasing underestimation errors at greater rainfall intensities. Simple linear regression equations were developed for each TBR to correct the TBR readings based on measured intensities (R2 > 0.98). Additionally, two dynamic calibration techniques, viz. quadratic model (R2 > 0.7) and T vs. 1/Q model (R2 = > 0.98), were tested and found to be useful in situations when the volumetric settings of TBRs are unknown. The correction models were successfully applied to correct field-collected rainfall data from respective TBR models. The calibration parameters of correction models were found to be highly sensitive to changes in volumetric calibration of TBRs. Overall, the HS-TB3 model (with a better protected tipping bucket mechanism, and consistent measurement errors across a range of rainfall intensities) was found to be the most reliable and consistent for rainfall measurements, followed by the ISCO-674 (with susceptibility to clogging and relatively smaller measurement errors across a range of rainfall intensities) and the TR-525 (with high susceptibility to clogging and frequent changes in volumetric calibration, and highly intensity-dependent measurement errors). The study demonstrated that corrections based on dynamic and volumetric calibration can only help minimize-but not completely eliminate the measurement errors. The findings from this study will be useful for correcting field data from TBRs; and may have major implications to field- and watershed-scale hydrologic studies.

Northward extent of East Asian monsoon covaries with intensity on orbital and millennial timescales.

PubMed

Goldsmith, Yonaton; Broecker, Wallace S; Xu, Hai; Polissar, Pratigya J; deMenocal, Peter B; Porat, Naomi; Lan, Jianghu; Cheng, Peng; Zhou, Weijian; An, Zhisheng

2017-02-21

The magnitude, rate, and extent of past and future East Asian monsoon (EAM) rainfall fluctuations remain unresolved. Here, late Pleistocene-Holocene EAM rainfall intensity is reconstructed using a well-dated northeastern China closed-basin lake area record located at the modern northwestern fringe of the EAM. The EAM intensity and northern extent alternated rapidly between wet and dry periods on time scales of centuries. Lake levels were 60 m higher than present during the early and middle Holocene, requiring a twofold increase in annual rainfall, which, based on modern rainfall distribution, requires a ∼400 km northward expansion/migration of the EAM. The lake record is highly correlated with both northern and southern Chinese cave deposit isotope records, supporting rainfall "intensity based" interpretations of these deposits as opposed to an alternative "water vapor sourcing" interpretation. These results indicate that EAM intensity and the northward extent covary on orbital and millennial timescales. The termination of wet conditions at 5.5 ka BP (∼35 m lake drop) triggered a large cultural collapse of Early Neolithic cultures in north China, and possibly promoted the emergence of complex societies of the Late Neolithic.

Northward extent of East Asian monsoon covaries with intensity on orbital and millennial timescales

PubMed Central

Goldsmith, Yonaton; Broecker, Wallace S.; Xu, Hai; Polissar, Pratigya J.; deMenocal, Peter B.; Porat, Naomi; Lan, Jianghu; Cheng, Peng; Zhou, Weijian; An, Zhisheng

2017-01-01

The magnitude, rate, and extent of past and future East Asian monsoon (EAM) rainfall fluctuations remain unresolved. Here, late Pleistocene–Holocene EAM rainfall intensity is reconstructed using a well-dated northeastern China closed-basin lake area record located at the modern northwestern fringe of the EAM. The EAM intensity and northern extent alternated rapidly between wet and dry periods on time scales of centuries. Lake levels were 60 m higher than present during the early and middle Holocene, requiring a twofold increase in annual rainfall, which, based on modern rainfall distribution, requires a ∼400 km northward expansion/migration of the EAM. The lake record is highly correlated with both northern and southern Chinese cave deposit isotope records, supporting rainfall “intensity based” interpretations of these deposits as opposed to an alternative “water vapor sourcing” interpretation. These results indicate that EAM intensity and the northward extent covary on orbital and millennial timescales. The termination of wet conditions at 5.5 ka BP (∼35 m lake drop) triggered a large cultural collapse of Early Neolithic cultures in north China, and possibly promoted the emergence of complex societies of the Late Neolithic. PMID:28167754

Northward extent of East Asian monsoon covaries with intensity on orbital and millennial timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldsmith, Yonaton; Broecker, Wallace S.; Xu, Hai; Polissar, Pratigya J.; deMenocal, Peter B.; Porat, Naomi; Lan, Jianghu; Cheng, Peng; Zhou, Weijian; An, Zhisheng

2017-02-01

The magnitude, rate, and extent of past and future East Asian monsoon (EAM) rainfall fluctuations remain unresolved. Here, late Pleistocene-Holocene EAM rainfall intensity is reconstructed using a well-dated northeastern China closed-basin lake area record located at the modern northwestern fringe of the EAM. The EAM intensity and northern extent alternated rapidly between wet and dry periods on time scales of centuries. Lake levels were 60 m higher than present during the early and middle Holocene, requiring a twofold increase in annual rainfall, which, based on modern rainfall distribution, requires a ˜400 km northward expansion/migration of the EAM. The lake record is highly correlated with both northern and southern Chinese cave deposit isotope records, supporting rainfall “intensity based” interpretations of these deposits as opposed to an alternative “water vapor sourcing” interpretation. These results indicate that EAM intensity and the northward extent covary on orbital and millennial timescales. The termination of wet conditions at 5.5 ka BP (˜35 m lake drop) triggered a large cultural collapse of Early Neolithic cultures in north China, and possibly promoted the emergence of complex societies of the Late Neolithic.

Rainfall Threshold Assessment Corresponding to the Maximum Allowable Turbidity for Source Water.

PubMed

Fan, Shu-Kai S; Kuan, Wen-Hui; Fan, Chihhao; Chen, Chiu-Yang

2016-12-01

  This study aims to assess the upstream rainfall thresholds corresponding to the maximum allowable turbidity of source water, using monitoring data and artificial neural network computation. The Taipei Water Source Domain was selected as the study area, and the upstream rainfall records were collected for statistical analysis. Using analysis of variance (ANOVA), the cumulative rainfall records of one-day Ping-lin, two-day Ping-lin, two-day Tong-hou, one-day Guie-shan, and one-day Tai-ping (rainfall in the previous 24 or 48 hours at the named weather stations) were found to be the five most significant parameters for downstream turbidity development. An artificial neural network model was constructed to predict the downstream turbidity in the area investigated. The observed and model-calculated turbidity data were applied to assess the rainfall thresholds in the studied area. By setting preselected turbidity criteria, the upstream rainfall thresholds for these statistically determined rain gauge stations were calculated.

Characteristics of Atmospheric Pollutants Distribution and Removal Effect of Rainfall on Atmospheric Pollutants in Mining Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen-feng, Tang; You-biao, Hu

2018-05-01

This paper studies the characteristics of atmospheric pollutant (SO2, NO2, PM2.5 and PM10) and the effects of rainfall on the removal of atmospheric pollutants. The results show atmospheric pollutants concentration vary in different seasons and functional area: atmospheric pollutants concentration in summer and autumn is lower than that in winter and spring; the concentration of SO2 and NO2 in coal-chemical industry areas and light industrial areas is higher, the concentration difference of PM2.5 and PM10 in different functional areas is very small, the removal efficiency of rainfall on atmospheric pollutant is gradually improved with the increasing of daily rainfall, rainfall intensity and rainfall duration, the ability of rainfall to remove pollutants tends to be stable after daily rainfall and rainfall intensity exceeds 30mm and 20mm/h respectively, the effect of rainfall on the removal of PM2.5 was slightly worse than the effect of rainfall on other atmospheric pollutants, the rainfall duration should be 60min, 60min and 80min respectively when the effect of rainfall on NO2, PM10 and SO2 tends to be stable.

Applications of high resolution rainfall radar data to quantify water temperature dynamics in urban catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croghan, Danny; Van Loon, Anne; Bradley, Chris; Sadler, Jon; Hannnah, David

2017-04-01

Studies relating rainfall events to river water quality are frequently hindered by the lack of high resolution rainfall data. Local studies are particularly vulnerable due to the spatial variability of precipitation, whilst studies in urban environments require precipitation data at high spatial and temporal resolutions. The use of point-source data makes identifying causal effects of storms on water quality problematic and can lead to erroneous interpretations. High spatial and temporal resolution rainfall radar data offers great potential to address these issues. Here we use rainfall radar data with a 1km spatial resolution and 5 minute temporal resolution sourced from the UK Met Office Nimrod system to study the effects of storm events on water temperature (WTemp) in Birmingham, UK. 28 WTemp loggers were placed over 3 catchments on a rural-urban land use gradient to identify trends in WTemp during extreme events within urban environments. Using GIS, the catchment associated with each logger was estimated, and 5 min. rainfall totals and intensities were produced for each sub-catchment. Comparisons of rainfall radar data to meteorological stations in the same grid cell revealed the high accuracy of rainfall radar data in our catchments (<5% difference for studied months). The rainfall radar data revealed substantial differences in rainfall quantity between the three adjacent catchments. The most urban catchment generally received more rainfall, with this effect greatest in the highest intensity storms, suggesting the possibility of urban heat island effects on precipitation dynamics within the catchment. Rainfall radar data provided more accurate sub-catchment rainfall totals allowing better modelled estimates of storm flow, whilst spatial fluctuations in both discharge and WTemp can be simply related to precipitation intensity. Storm flow inputs for each sub-catchment were estimated and linked to changes in WTemp. WTemp showed substantial fluctuations (>1 °C) over short durations (<30 minutes) during storm events in urbanised sub-catchments, however WTemp recovery times were more prolonged. Use of the rainfall radar data allowed increased accuracy in estimates of storm flow timings and rainfall quantities at each sub-catchment, from which the impact of storm flow on WTemp could be quantified. We are currently using the radar data to derive thresholds for rainfall amount and intensity at which these storm deviations occur for each logger, from which the relative effects of land use and other catchment characteristics in each sub-catchment can be assessed. Our use of the rainfall radar data calls into question the validity of using station based data for small scale studies, particularly in urban areas, with high variation apparent in rainfall intensity both spatially and temporally. Variation was particularly high within the heavily urbanised catchment. For water quality studies, high resolution rainfall radar can be implemented to increase the reliability of interpretations of the response of water quality variables to storm water inputs in urban catchments.

Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing Approach with Hydrologic Rational Model for Flood Event Analysis in Jakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aditya, M. R.; Hernina, R.; Rokhmatuloh

2017-12-01

Rapid development in Jakarta which generates more impervious surface has reduced the amount of rainfall infiltration into soil layer and increases run-off. In some events, continuous high rainfall intensity could create sudden flood in Jakarta City. This article used rainfall data of Jakarta during 10 February 2015 to compute rainfall intensity and then interpolate it with ordinary kriging technique. Spatial distribution of rainfall intensity then overlaid with run-off coefficient based on certain land use type of the study area. Peak run-off within each cell resulted from hydrologic rational model then summed for the whole study area to generate total peak run-off. For this study area, land use types consisted of 51.9 % industrial, 37.57% parks, and 10.54% residential with estimated total peak run-off 6.04 m3/sec, 0.39 m3/sec, and 0.31 m3/sec, respectively.

Hydrological Retrospective of floods and droughts: Case study in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Cauduro Dias de Paiva, Rodrigo; Carlo Espinoza Villar, Jhan; Collischonn, Walter

2017-04-01

Recent studies have reported an increase in intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in many regions of the Amazon basin over last decades, these events such as seasonal floods and droughts have originated a significant impact in human and natural systems. Recently, methodologies such as climatic reanalysis are being developed in order to create a coherent register of climatic systems, thus taking this notion, this research efforts to produce a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), that essentially simulate large rainfall datasets over hydrological models in order to develop a record over past hydrology, enabling the analysis of past floods and droughts. We developed our methodology on the Amazon basin, thus we used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) through a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH), after that HR products were validated against several in situ discharge gauges dispersed throughout Amazon basin, given focus in maximum and minimum events. For better HR results according performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts considering in-situ observations. Furthermore, statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and drought in the whole Amazon basin. Results indicate that better HR represented well most past extreme events registered by in-situ observed data and also showed coherent with many events cited by literature, thus we consider viable to use some large precipitation datasets as climatic reanalysis mainly based on land surface component and datasets based in merged products for represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events. On the other hand, an increase trend of intensity was realized for maximum annual discharges (related to floods) in north-western regions and for minimum annual discharges (related to drought) in central-south regions of the Amazon basin, these features were previously detected by other researches. In the whole basin, we estimated an upward trend of maximum annual discharges at Amazon River. In order to estimate better future hydrological behavior and their impacts on the society, HR could be used as a methodology to understand past extreme events occurrence in many places considering the global coverage of rainfall datasets.

Introducing hydrological information in rainfall intensity-duration thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greco, Roberto; Bogaard, Thom

2016-04-01

Regional landslide hazard assessment is mainly based on empirically derived precipitation-intensity-duration (PID) thresholds. Generally, two features of rainfall events are plotted to discriminate between observed occurrence and absence of occurrence of mass movements. Hereafter, a separation line is drawn in logarithmic space. Although successfully applied in many case studies, such PID thresholds suffer from many false positives as well as limited physical process insight. One of the main limitations is indeed that they do not include any information about the hydrological processes occurring along the slopes, so that the triggering is only related to rainfall characteristics. In order to introduce such an hydrological information in the definition of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide triggering assessment, in this study the introduction of non-dimensional rainfall characteristics is proposed. In particular, rain storm depth, intensity and duration are divided by a characteristic infiltration depth, a characteristic infiltration rate and a characteristic duration, respectively. These latter variables depend on the hydraulic properties and on the moisture state of the soil cover at the beginning of the precipitation. The proposed variables are applied to the case of a slope covered with shallow pyroclastic deposits in Cervinara (southern Italy), for which experimental data of hourly rainfall and soil suction were available. Rainfall thresholds defined with the proposed non-dimensional variables perform significantly better than those defined with dimensional variables, either in the intensity-duration plane or in the depth-duration plane.

Influence factors and prediction of stormwater runoff of urban green space in Tianjin, China: laboratory experiment and quantitative theory model.

PubMed

Yang, Xu; You, Xue-Yi; Ji, Min; Nima, Ciren

2013-01-01

The effects of limiting factors such as rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, grass type and vegetation coverage on the stormwater runoff of urban green space was investigated in Tianjin. The prediction equation of stormwater runoff was established by the quantitative theory with the lab experimental data of soil columns. It was validated by three field experiments and the relative errors between predicted and measured stormwater runoff are 1.41, 1.52 and 7.35%, respectively. The results implied that the prediction equation could be used to forecast the stormwater runoff of urban green space. The results of range and variance analysis indicated the sequence order of limiting factors is rainfall intensity > grass type > rainfall duration > vegetation coverage. The least runoff of green land in the present study is the combination of rainfall intensity 60.0 mm/h, duration 60.0 min, grass Festuca arundinacea and vegetation coverage 90.0%. When the intensity and duration of rainfall are 60.0 mm/h and 90.0 min, the predicted volumetric runoff coefficient is 0.23 with Festuca arundinacea of 90.0% vegetation coverage. The present approach indicated that green space is an effective method to reduce stormwater runoff and the conclusions are mainly applicable to Tianjin and the semi-arid areas with main summer precipitation and long-time interval rainfalls.

Analysis and stochastic modelling of Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationship from 88 years of 10 min rainfall data in North Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgado, Oihane; Campo-Bescós, Miguel A.; López, J. Javier

2017-04-01

Frequently, when we are trying to solve certain hydrological engineering problems, it is often necessary to know rain intensity values related to a specific probability or return period, T. Based on analyses of extreme rainfall events at different time scale aggregation, we can deduce the relationships among Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF), that are widely used in hydraulic infrastructure design. However, the lack of long time series of rainfall intensities for smaller time periods, minutes or hours, leads to use mathematical expressions to characterize and extend these curves. One way to deduce them is through the development of synthetic rainfall time series generated from stochastic models, which is evaluated in this work. From recorded accumulated rainfall time series every 10 min in the pluviograph of Igueldo (San Sebastian, Spain) for the time period between 1927-2005, their homogeneity has been checked and possible statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends have also been shown. Subsequently, two models have been calibrated: Bartlett-Lewis and Markov chains models, which are based on the successions of storms, composed for a series of rainfall events, separated by a short interval of time each. Finally, synthetic ten-minute rainfall time series are generated, which allow to estimate detailed IDF curves and compare them with the estimated IDF based on the recorded data.

Measurement accuracy of weighing and tipping-bucket rainfall intensity gauges under dynamic laboratory testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colli, M.; Lanza, L. G.; La Barbera, P.; Chan, P. W.

2014-07-01

The contribution of any single uncertainty factor in the resulting performance of infield rain gauge measurements still has to be comprehensively assessed due to the high number of real world error sources involved, such as the intrinsic variability of rainfall intensity (RI), wind effects, wetting losses, the ambient temperature, etc. In recent years the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) addressed these issues by fostering dedicated investigations, which revealed further difficulties in assessing the actual reference rainfall intensity in the field. This work reports on an extensive assessment of the OTT Pluvio2 weighing gauge accuracy when measuring rainfall intensity under laboratory dynamic conditions (time varying reference flow rates). The results obtained from the weighing rain gauge (WG) were also compared with a MTX tipping-bucket rain gauge (TBR) under the same test conditions. Tests were carried out by simulating various artificial precipitation events, with unsteady rainfall intensity, using a suitable dynamic rainfall generator. Real world rainfall data measured by an Ogawa catching-type drop counter at a field test site located within the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) were used as a reference for the artificial rain generation system. Results demonstrate that the differences observed between the laboratory and field performance of catching-type gauges are only partially attributable to the weather and operational conditions in the field. The dynamics of real world precipitation events is responsible for a large part of the measurement errors, which can be accurately assessed in the laboratory under controlled environmental conditions. This allows for new testing methodologies and the development of instruments with enhanced performance in the field.

Effect of Erosion on Productivity in Subtropical Red Soil Hilly Region: A Multi-Scale Spatio-Temporal Study by Simulated Rainfall

PubMed Central

Li, Zhongwu; Huang, Jinquan; Zeng, Guangming; Nie, Xiaodong; Ma, Wenming; Yu, Wei; Guo, Wang; Zhang, Jiachao

2013-01-01

The effects of water erosion (including long-term historical erosion and single erosion event) on soil properties and productivity in different farming systems were investigated. A typical sloping cropland with homogeneous soil properties was designed in 2009 and then protected from other external disturbances except natural water erosion. In 2012, this cropland was divided in three equally sized blocks. Three treatments were performed on these blocks with different simulated rainfall intensities and farming methods: (1) high rainfall intensity (1.5 - 1.7 mm min−1), no-tillage operation; (2) low rainfall intensity (0.5 - 0.7 mm min−1), no-tillage operation; and (3) low rainfall intensity, tillage operation. All of the blocks were divided in five equally sized subplots along the slope to characterize the three-year effects of historical erosion quantitatively. Redundancy analysis showed that the effects of long-term historical erosion significantly caused most of the variations in soil productivity in no-tillage and low rainfall erosion intensity systems. The intensities of the simulated rainfall did not exhibit significant effects on soil productivity in no-tillage systems. By contrast, different farming operations induced a statistical difference in soil productivity at the same single erosion intensity. Soil organic carbon (SOC) was the major limiting variable that influenced soil productivity. Most explanations of long-term historical erosion for the variation in soil productivity arose from its sharing with SOC. SOC, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus were found as the regressors of soil productivity because of tillage operation. In general, this study provided strong evidence that single erosion event could also impose significant constraints on soil productivity by integrating with tillage operation, although single erosion is not the dominant effect relative to the long-term historical erosion. Our study demonstrated that an effective management of organic carbon pool should be the preferred option to maintain soil productivity in subtropical red soil hilly region. PMID:24147090

First Evaluation of Rainfall Derived from Commercial Microwave Links in São Paulo, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uijlenhoet, R.; Rios Gaona, M. F.; Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Raupach, T.

2017-12-01

Rainfall estimation from commercial microwave link (CML) networks has gained a lot of attention from the hydrometeorological community in the last decade. Path-averaged rainfall intensities can be retrieved from the signal attenuation between cell phone towers. Such a technique offers rainfall retrievals at high spatiotemporal resolutions. High spatiotemporal rainfall measurements are highly important for urban hydrology, given the often deadly impact of flash floods to society. This study evaluates CML rainfall retrievals for a subtropical climate. Rainfall estimation for subtropical climates is highly relevant, since many countries with few surface rainfall observations are located in such areas. The evaluation is done for the Brazilian city of São Paulo. RAINLINK (the open-source algorithm) retrieves rainfall intensities from attenuation measurements. We evaluated CMLs in the São Paulo metropolitan area for 81 days between October 2014 and January 2015. The evaluation was done against a dense automatic gauge network. High correlations (>0.9) and low biases ( 30%) are obtained, especially for short CMLs.

Mesoscale Assimilation of TMI Rainfall Data with 4DVAR: Sensitivity Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Pu, Zhaoxia

2003-01-01

Sensitivity studies are performed on the assimilation of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) Microwave Imager (TMI) derived rainfall data into a mesoscale model using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technique. A series of numerical experiments is conducted to evaluate the impact of TMI rainfall data on the numerical simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). The results indicate that rainfall data assimilation is sensitive to the error characteristics of the data and the inclusion of physics in the adjoint and forward models. In addition, assimilating the rainfall data alone is helpful for producing a more realistic eye and rain bands in the hurricane but does not ensure improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts. Further study indicated that it is necessary to incorporate TMI rainfall data together with other types of data such as wind data into the model, in which case the inclusion of the rainfall data further improves the intensity forecast of the hurricane. This implies that proper constraints may be needed for rainfall assimilation.

A comparative modeling analysis of multiscale temporal variability of rainfall in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuel, Jos M.; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2008-07-01

The effects of long-term natural climate variability and human-induced climate change on rainfall variability have become the focus of much concern and recent research efforts. In this paper, we present the results of a comparative analysis of observed multiscale temporal variability of rainfall in the Perth, Newcastle, and Darwin regions of Australia. This empirical and stochastic modeling analysis explores multiscale rainfall variability, i.e., ranging from short to long term, including within-storm patterns, and intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities, using data taken from each of these regions. The analyses investigated how storm durations, interstorm periods, and average storm rainfall intensities differ for different climate states and demonstrated significant differences in this regard between the three selected regions. In Perth, the average storm intensity is stronger during La Niña years than during El Niño years, whereas in Newcastle and Darwin storm duration is longer during La Niña years. Increase of either storm duration or average storm intensity is the cause of higher average annual rainfall during La Niña years as compared to El Niño years. On the other hand, within-storm variability does not differ significantly between different ENSO states in all three locations. In the case of long-term rainfall variability, the statistical analyses indicated that in Newcastle the long-term rainfall pattern reflects the variability of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index, whereas in Perth and Darwin the long-term variability exhibits a step change in average annual rainfall (up in Darwin and down in Perth) which occurred around 1970. The step changes in Perth and Darwin and the switch in IPO states in Newcastle manifested differently in the three study regions in terms of changes in the annual number of rainy days or the average daily rainfall intensity or both. On the basis of these empirical data analyses, a stochastic rainfall time series model was developed that incorporates the entire range of multiscale variabilities observed in each region, including within-storm, intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal variability. Such ability to characterize, model, and synthetically generate realistic time series of rainfall intensities is essential for addressing many hydrological problems, including estimation of flood and drought frequencies, pesticide risk assessment, and landslide frequencies.

Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribes, Aurélien; Thao, Soulivanh; Vautard, Robert; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Somot, Samuel; Colin, Jeanne; Planton, Serge; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

2018-04-01

We examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall amounts observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series according to their dependence. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at + 22% (+ 7 to + 39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequency for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200 mm in 1 day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this change ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200 mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events over the last decades. We argue that it is difficult to explain the diagnosed trends without invoking the human influence on climate.

Effect of rainfall intensity and slope steepness on the development of soil erosion in the Southern Cis-Ural region (A model experiment)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobol, N. V.; Gabbasova, I. M.; Komissarov, M. A.

2017-09-01

The effect of rainfall intensity on the erosion of residual calcareous agrogray soils and clay-illuvial agrochernozems in the Southern Cis-Ural region on slopes of different inclination and vegetation type has been studied by simulating with a small-size sprinkler. It has been shown that soil loss linearly depends on rainfall intensity (2, 4, and 6 mm/min) and slope inclination (3° and 7°). When the rainfall intensity and duration, and the slope inclination increase, soil loss by erosion from agrogray soils increases higher than from agrochernozems. On the plowland with a slope of 3°, runoff begins 12, 10, and 5 min, on the average, after the beginning of rains at these intensities. When the slope increases to 7°, runoff begins earlier by 7, 6, and 4 min, respectively. After the beginning of runoff and with its increase by 1 mm, the soil loss from slopes of 3° and 7° reaches 4.2 and 25.7 t/ha on agrogray soils and 1.4 and 4.7 t/ha on agrochernozems, respectively. Fallow soils have higher erosion resistance, and the soil loss little depends on the slope gradient: it gradually increases to 0.3-1.0 t/ha per 1 mm of runoff with increasing rainfall intensity and duration. The content of physical clay in eroded material is higher than in the original soils. Fine fractions prevail in this material, which increases their humus content. The increase in rainfall intensity and duration to 4 and 6 mm/min results in the entrapment of coarse silt and sand by runoff.

Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

2016-02-01

Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as for most of the Australian continent, extreme rainfall is closely aligned with elevation, but in areas with high topographic relief the impacts of topography on rainfall extremes are more complex. The interpolated extreme rainfall statistics, using no data transformation, have been used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to produce new IDF data for the Australian continent. The comprehensive methods presented for the evaluation of gridded design rainfall statistics will be useful for similar studies, in particular the importance of balancing the need for a continentally-optimum solution that maintains sufficient definition at the local scale.

Estimating urban flood risk - uncertainty in design criteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newby, M.; Franks, S. W.; White, C. J.

2015-06-01

The design of urban stormwater infrastructure is generally performed assuming that climate is static. For engineering practitioners, stormwater infrastructure is designed using a peak flow method, such as the Rational Method as outlined in the Australian Rainfall and Runoff (AR&R) guidelines and estimates of design rainfall intensities. Changes to Australian rainfall intensity design criteria have been made through updated releases of the AR&R77, AR&R87 and the recent 2013 AR&R Intensity Frequency Distributions (IFDs). The primary focus of this study is to compare the three IFD sets from 51 locations Australia wide. Since the release of the AR&R77 IFDs, the duration and number of locations for rainfall data has increased and techniques for data analysis have changed. Updated terminology coinciding with the 2013 IFD release has also resulted in a practical change to the design rainfall. For example, infrastructure that is designed for a 1 : 5 year ARI correlates with an 18.13% AEP, however for practical purposes, hydraulic guidelines have been updated with the more intuitive 20% AEP. The evaluation of design rainfall variation across Australia has indicated that the changes are dependent upon location, recurrence interval and rainfall duration. The changes to design rainfall IFDs are due to the application of differing data analysis techniques, the length and number of data sets and the change in terminology from ARI to AEP. Such changes mean that developed infrastructure has been designed to a range of different design criteria indicating the likely inadequacy of earlier developments to the current estimates of flood risk. In many cases, the under-design of infrastructure is greater than the expected impact of increased rainfall intensity under climate change scenarios.

Modeling Channel Movement Response to Rainfall Variability and Potential Threats to Post-earthquake Reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, J.; Wang, M.; Liu, K.

2017-12-01

The 2008 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake caused overwhelming destruction to vast mountains areas in Sichuan province. Numerous seismic landslides damaged the forest and vegetation cover, and caused substantial loose sediment piling up in the valleys. The movement and fill-up of loose materials led to riverbeds aggradation, thus made the earthquake-struck area more susceptible to flash floods with increasing frequency and intensity of extreme rainfalls. This study investigated the response of sediment and river channel evolution to different rainfall scenarios after the Wenchuan earthquake. The study area was chosen in a catchment affected by the earthquake in Northeast Sichuan province, China. We employed the landscape evolution model CAESAR-lisflood to explore the material migration rules and then assessed the potential effects under two rainfall scenarios. The model parameters were calibrated using the 2013 extreme rainfall event, and the experimental rainfall scenarios were of different intensity and frequency over a 10-year period. The results indicated that CAESAR-lisflood was well adapted to replicate the sediment migration, particularly the fluvial processes after earthquake. With respect to the effects of rainfall intensity, the erosion severity in upstream gullies and the deposition severity in downstream channels, correspondingly increased with the increasing intensity of extreme rainfalls. The modelling results showed that buildings in the catchment suffered from flash floods increased by more than a quarter from the normal to the enhanced rainfall scenarios in ten years, which indicated a potential threat to the exposures nearby the river channel, in the context of climate change. Simulation on landscape change is of great significance, and contributes to early warning of potential geological risks after earthquake. Attention on the high risk area by local government and the public is highly suggested in our study.

Impacts of climate change on the trends of extreme rainfall indices and values of maximum precipitation at Olimpiyat Station, Istanbul, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigussie, Tewodros Assefa; Altunkaynak, Abdusselam

2018-03-01

In this study, extreme rainfall indices of Olimpiyat Station were determined from reference period (1971-2000) and future period (2070-2099) daily rainfall data projected using the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M global circulation models (GCMs) and downscaled by the RegCM4.3.4 regional model under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend statistics was used to detect trends in the indices of each group, and the nonparametric Wilcoxon signed ranks test was employed to identify the presence of differences among the values of the rainfall indices of the three groups. Moreover, the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method was used to undertake frequency analysis and estimate the maximum 24-h rainfall values of various return periods. The results of the M-K-based trend analyses showed that there are insignificant increasing trends in most of the extreme rainfall indices. However, based on the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the values of the extreme rainfall indices determined for the future period, particularly under RCP8.5, were found to be significantly different from the corresponding values determined for the reference period. The maximum 24-h rainfall amounts of the 50-year return period of the future period under RCP4.5 of the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M GCMs were found to be larger (by 5.85%) than the corresponding value of the reference period by 5.85 and 21.43%, respectively. The results also showed that the maximum 24-h rainfall amount under RCP8.5 of both the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M GCMs was found to be greater (34.33 and 12.18%, respectively, for the 50-year return period) than the reference period values. This may increase the risk of flooding in Ayamama Watershed, and thus, studying the effects of the predicted amount of rainfall under the RCP8.5 scenario on the flooding risk of Ayamama Watershed and devising management strategies are recommended to enhance the design and implementation of adaptation measures.

Combined effects of constant versus variable intensity simulated rainfall and reduced tillage management on cotton preemergence herbicide runoff.

PubMed

Potter, Thomas L; Truman, Clint C; Strickland, Timothy C; Bosch, David D; Webster, Theodore M; Franklin, Dorcas H; Bednarz, Craig W

2006-01-01

Pesticide runoff research relies heavily on rainfall simulation experiments. Most are conducted at a constant intensity, i.e., at a fixed rainfall rate; however, large differences in natural rainfall intensity is common. To assess implications we quantified runoff of two herbicides, fluometuron and pendimethalin, and applied preemergence after planting cotton on Tifton loamy sand. Rainfall at constant and variable intensity patterns representative of late spring thunderstorms in the Atlantic Coastal Plain region of Georgia (USA) were simulated on 6-m2 plots under strip- (ST) and conventional-tillage (CT) management. The variable pattern produced significantly higher runoff rates of both compounds from CT but not ST plots. However, on an event-basis, runoff totals (% applied) were not significantly different, with one exception: fluometuron runoff from CT plots. There was about 25% more fluometuron runoff with the variable versus the constant intensity pattern (P = 0.10). Study results suggest that conduct of simulations using variable intensity storm patterns may provide more representative rainfall simulation-based estimates of pesticide runoff and that the greatest impacts will be observed with CT. The study also found significantly more fluometuron in runoff from ST than CT plots. Further work is needed to determine whether this behavior may be generalized to other active ingredients with similar properties [low K(oc) (organic carbon partition coefficient) approximately 100 mL g(-1); high water solubility approximately 100 mg L(-1)]. If so, it should be considered when making tillage-specific herbicide recommendations to reduce runoff potential.

Continuous rainfall simulation for regional flood risk assessment - application in the Austrian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, Jose Luis; Nester, Thomas; Komma, Jürgen; Blöschl, Günter

2017-04-01

Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of the observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks. Furthermore, the replication of the observed rainfall spatial and temporal correlations allows to model important other hydrological features like antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events. In this work, we present an application in the Tirol region (Austrian alps) of a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is modeled on a station basis as a mutivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space, and then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space. For the sake of simplicity, the parameters of the Gamma distributions are assumed to vary monthly according to a sinusoidal function, and are calibrated trying to simultaneously reproduce i) mean annual rainfall, ii) mean daily rainfall amounts, iii) standard deviations of daily rainfall amounts, and iv) 24-hours intensity duration frequency curve. The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the intensity-duration-frequency curves aggregated at different spatial and temporal scales reproduce the measured ones. Bardossy, A., and E. J. Plate (1992), Space-time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation patterns, Water Resour. Res., 28(5), 1247-1259, doi:10.1029/91WR02589.

Storm and flood of July 31-August 1, 1976, in the Big Thompson River and Cache la Poudre River basins, Larimer and Weld Counties, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCain, Jerald F.; Shroba, R.R.

1979-01-01

PART A: Devastating flash floods swept through the canyon section of Larimer County in north-central Colorado during the night of July 31-August I, 1976, causing 139 deaths, 5 missing persons, and more than $35 million in total damages. The brunt of the storms occurred over the Big Thompson River basin between Drake and Estes Park with rainfall amounts as much as 12 inches being reported during the storm period. In the Cache la Poudre River basin to the north, a rainfall amount of 10 inches was reported for one locality while 6 inches fell over a widespread area near the central part of the basin. The storms developed when strong low-level easterly winds to the rear of a polar front pushed a moist, conditionally unstable airmass upslope into the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains. Orographic uplift released the convective instability, and light south-southeasterly winds at middle and upper levels allowed the storm complex to remain nearly stationary over the foothills for several hours. Minimal entrainment of relatively moist air at middle and upper levels, very low cloud bases, and a slightly tilted updraft structure contributed to a high precipitation efficiency. Intense rainfall began soon after 1900 MDT (Mountain Daylight Time) in the Big Thompson River and the North Fork Cache la Poudre River basins. A cumulative rainfall curve developed for Glen Comfort from radar data indicates that 7.5 inches of rain fell during the period 1930-2040 MDT on July 31. In the central part of the storm area west of Fort Collins, the heaviest rainfall began about 2200 MDT on July 31 and continued until 0100 MDT on August 1. Peak discharges were extremely large on many streams in the storm area-exceeding previously recorded maximum discharges at several locations. The peak discharge of the Big Thompson River at the gaging station at the canyon mouth, near Drake was 31,200 cubic feet per second or more than four times the previous maximum discharge of 7,600 cubic feet per second at the site during 88 years of flood history. At the gaging station on the North Fork Big Thompson River at Drake, the peak discharge on July 31 was 8,710 cubic feet per second as compared to the previous maximum discharge during 29 years of record of 1,290 cubic feet per second. Peak discharges for three small tributaries near the area of heaviest rainfall northeast of Estes Park exceeded previously recorded maximum discharges for basins of less than 4 square miles in Colorado. Stream velocities were rapid along the tributaries near the storm center and on the Big Thompson River in the canyon section, with average velocities of 20-25 feet per second being common. The flood crest on the Big Thompson River moved through the 7.7-mile reach between Drake and the canyon mouth in about 30 minutes for an average travel rate of 15 miles per hour, or about 23 feet per second. The peak discharge of the flood on the Big Thompson River at the canyon mouth exceeded the 100-year flood discharge for the site by a ratio of 1.8. Upstream in the Big Thompson River basin, the flood was even more rare being 3.8 times the estimated 100-year flood discharge at the site on the Big Thompson River just upstream from Drake. In the Cache la Poudre River basin, recurrence intervals were computed to be 100 years for the flood on Deadman Creek and 16 years for Rist Canyon and the Cache la Poudre River at the canyon mouth near Fort Collins. Although the rainfall and flood discharges were unusually large, they are not unprecedented for some areas along the eastern foothills and plains of Colorado. The May 1935 and June 1965 floods on some streams along the eastern plains greatly exceeded the 1976 flood peaks in the storm area. Prior floods on several other streams in the foothills have approximately equaled the 1976 peak discharges. PART B: Intense rainfall from the Big Thompson thunderstorm complex on the evening of July 31,1976, and the ensuing floods that evening and the fol

Effective application of optical sensing technology for sustainable liquid level sensing and rainfall measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afzal, Muhammad Hassan Bin

2015-05-01

Rainfall measurement is performed on regular basis to facilitate effectively the weather stations and local inhabitants. Different types of rain gauges are available with different measuring principle for rainfall measurement. In this research work, a novel optical rain sensor is designed, which precisely calculate the rainfall level according to rainfall intensity. This proposed optical rain sensor model introduced in this paper, which is basically designed for remote sensing of rainfall and it designated as R-ORMS (Remote Optical Rainfall Measurement sensor). This sensor is combination of some improved method of tipping bucket rain gauge and most of the optical hydreon rain sensor's principle. This optical sensor can detect the starting time and ending time of rain, rain intensity and rainfall level. An infrared beam from Light Emitting Diode (LED) through powerful convex lens can accurately determines the diameter of each rain drops by total internal reflection principle. Calculations of these accumulative results determine the rain intensity and rainfall level. Accurate rainfall level is determined by internal optical LED based sensor which is embedded in bucket wall. This internal sensor is also following the total internal reflection (TIR) principle and the Fresnel's law. This is an entirely novel design of optical sensing principle based rain sensor and also suitable for remote sensing rainfall level. The performance of this proposed sensor has been comprehensively compared with other sensors with similar attributes and it showed better and sustainable result. Future related works have been proposed at the end of this paper, to provide improved and enhanced performance of proposed novel rain sensor.

Evaluating rainfall kinetic energy - intensity relationships with observed disdrometric data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angulo-Martinez, Marta; Begueria, Santiago; Latorre, Borja

2016-04-01

Rainfall kinetic energy is required for determining erosivity, the ability of rainfall to detach soil particles and initiate erosion. Its determination relay on the use of disdrometers, i.e. devices capable of measuring the drop size distribution and velocity of falling raindrops. In the absence of such devices, rainfall kinetic energy is usually estimated with empirical expressions relating rainfall energy and intensity. We evaluated the performance of 14 rainfall energy equations in estimating one-minute rainfall energy and event total energy, in comparison with observed data from 821 rainfall episodes (more than 100 thousand one-minute observations) by means of an optical disdrometer. In addition, two sources of bias when using such relationships were evaluated: i) the influence of using theoretical terminal raindrop fall velocities instead of measured values; and ii) the influence of time aggregation (rainfall intensity data every 5-, 10-, 15-, 30-, and 60-minutes). Empirical relationships did a relatively good job when complete events were considered (R2 > 0.82), but offered poorer results for within-event (one-minute resolution) variation. Also, systematic biases where large for many equations. When raindrop size distribution was known, estimating the terminal fall velocities by empirical laws produced good results even at fine time resolution. The influence of time aggregation was very high in the estimated kinetic energy, although linear scaling may allow empirical correction. This results stress the importance of considering all these effects when rainfall energy needs to be estimated from more standard precipitation records. , and recommends the use of disdrometer data to locally determine rainfall kinetic energy.

Bioengineering Technology to Control River Soil Erosion using Vetiver (Vetiveria Zizaniodes)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sriwati, M.; Pallu, S.; Selintung, M.; Lopa, R.

2018-04-01

Erosion is the action of surface processes (such as water flow or wind) that removes soil, rock or dissolved material from one location on the earth’s crust, and then transport it away to another location. Bioengineering is an attempt to maximise the use of vegetation components along riverbanks to cope with landslides and erosion of river cliffs and another riverbank damage. This study aims to analyze the bioengineering of Vetiver as a surface layer for soil erosion control using slope of 100, 200, and 300. This study is conducted with 3 variations of rain intensity (I), at 103 mm/hour, 107 mm/hour, and 130 mm/hour by using rainfall simulator tool. In addition, the USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation) method is used in order to measure the rate of soil erosion. In this study, there are few USLE model parameters were used such as rainfall erosivity factor, soil erodibility factor, length-loss slope and stepness factor, cover management factor, and support practise factor. The results demonstrated that average of reduction of erosion rate using Vetiver, under 3 various rainfalls, namely rainfall intensity 103 mm/hr had reduced 84.971%, rainfall intensity 107 mm/hr had reduced 86.583 %, rainfall intensity 130 mm/hr had reduced 65.851%.

Effects of Crop Canopies on Rain Splash Detachment

PubMed Central

Ma, Bo; Yu, Xiaoling; Ma, Fan; Li, Zhanbin; Wu, Faqi

2014-01-01

Crops are one of the main factors affecting soil erosion in sloping fields. To determine the characteristics of splash erosion under crop canopies, corn, soybean, millet, and winter wheat were collected, and the relationship among splash erosion, rainfall intensity, and throughfall intensity under different crop canopies was analyzed through artificial rainfall experiments. The results showed that, the mean splash detachment rate on the ground surface was 390.12 g/m2·h, which was lower by 67.81% than that on bare land. The inhibiting effects of crops on splash erosion increased as the crops grew, and the ability of the four crops to inhibit splash erosion was in the order of winter wheat>corn>soybeans>millet. An increase in rainfall intensity could significantly enhance the occurrence of splash erosion, but the ability of crops to inhibit splash erosion was 13% greater in cases of higher rainfall intensity. The throughfall intensity under crop canopies was positively related to the splash detachment rate, and this relationship was more significant when the rainfall intensity was 40 mm/h. Splash erosion tended to occur intensively in the central row of croplands as the crop grew, and the non-uniformity of splash erosion was substantial, with splash erosion occurring mainly between the rows and in the region directly under the leaf margin. This study has provided a theoretical basis for describing the erosion mechanisms of cropland and for assisting soil erosion prediction as well as irrigation and fertilizer management in cultivated fields. PMID:24992386

Effects of crop canopies on rain splash detachment.

PubMed

Ma, Bo; Yu, Xiaoling; Ma, Fan; Li, Zhanbin; Wu, Faqi

2014-01-01

Crops are one of the main factors affecting soil erosion in sloping fields. To determine the characteristics of splash erosion under crop canopies, corn, soybean, millet, and winter wheat were collected, and the relationship among splash erosion, rainfall intensity, and throughfall intensity under different crop canopies was analyzed through artificial rainfall experiments. The results showed that, the mean splash detachment rate on the ground surface was 390.12 g/m2 · h, which was lower by 67.81% than that on bare land. The inhibiting effects of crops on splash erosion increased as the crops grew, and the ability of the four crops to inhibit splash erosion was in the order of winter wheat>corn>soybeans>millet. An increase in rainfall intensity could significantly enhance the occurrence of splash erosion, but the ability of crops to inhibit splash erosion was 13% greater in cases of higher rainfall intensity. The throughfall intensity under crop canopies was positively related to the splash detachment rate, and this relationship was more significant when the rainfall intensity was 40 mm/h. Splash erosion tended to occur intensively in the central row of croplands as the crop grew, and the non-uniformity of splash erosion was substantial, with splash erosion occurring mainly between the rows and in the region directly under the leaf margin. This study has provided a theoretical basis for describing the erosion mechanisms of cropland and for assisting soil erosion prediction as well as irrigation and fertilizer management in cultivated fields.

Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls through non-homogeneous Poissonian processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirangelo, B.; Ferrari, E.; de Luca, D. L.

2011-06-01

A stochastic model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process, characterised by a time-dependent intensity of rainfall occurrence, is employed to explain seasonal effects of daily rainfalls exceeding prefixed threshold values. The data modelling has been performed with a partition of observed daily rainfall data into a calibration period for parameter estimation and a validation period for checking on occurrence process changes. The model has been applied to a set of rain gauges located in different geographical areas of Southern Italy. The results show a good fit for time-varying intensity of rainfall occurrence process by 2-harmonic Fourier law and no statistically significant evidence of changes in the validation period for different threshold values.

Analysis of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the Eastern Pyrenees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portilla Gamboa, M.; Hürlimann, M.; Corominas, J.

2009-09-01

The inventory of rainfall-induced mass movements, rainfall data, and slope characteristics are considered the basis of the analysis determining appropriate rainfall thresholds for mass movements in a specific region. The rainfall-induced landslide thresholds established in the literature for the Catalan Pyrenees have been formulated referring to the rainfall events of November 1982, September 1992, December 1997, and others occurred after 1999. It has been shown that a rainfall intensity greater than 190 mm in 24 hours without antecedent rainfall would be necessary to produce mass movements (Corominas and Moya, 1999; Corominas et al, 2002) or 51mm in 24h with 61 mm of accumulated rainfall (Marco, 2007). Short duration-high intensity rainfalls have brought about several mass movements in some Catalonian regions throughout the course of twenty-first century (Berga, Bonaigua, Saldes, Montserrat, Port-Ainé, Riu Runer, and Sant Nicolau). Preliminary analysis of these events shows that it is necessary to review the thresholds defined so far and redo the existing inventory of mass movements for the Catalan Pyrenees. The present work shows the usefulness of aerial photographs in the reconstruction of the inventory of historic mass movements (Molló-Queralbs, 1940; Arties-Vielha, 1963; Barruera-Senet, 1940 and 1963, and Berga-Cercs, 1982, 1997 and 2008). Also, it highlights the treatment given to scarce and scattered rainfall data available inside these Catalonia’s regions, and the application of Geographic Information Systems (ArcGIS) in the management of the gathered information. The results acquired until now show that the historic rainfall events occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees have yielded many more mass movements than those reported in the literature. Besides, it can be said that the thresholds formulated for the Pyrenees are valid for longstanding regional rainfalls, and not for local downpours. In the latter cases it should be necessary to take into account the rainfall intensity of short duration (mm/h, mm/min.) and maybe the role played by the antecedent rainfall.

Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

2018-05-01

The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

Statistical Determination of Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity Indices for Single Storms in the Chinese Loess Plateau

PubMed Central

Zheng, Mingguo; Chen, Xiaoan

2015-01-01

Correlation analysis is popular in erosion- or earth-related studies, however, few studies compare correlations on a basis of statistical testing, which should be conducted to determine the statistical significance of the observed sample difference. This study aims to statistically determine the erosivity index of single storms, which requires comparison of a large number of dependent correlations between rainfall-runoff factors and soil loss, in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Data observed at four gauging stations and five runoff experimental plots were presented. Based on the Meng’s tests, which is widely used for comparing correlations between a dependent variable and a set of independent variables, two methods were proposed. The first method removes factors that are poorly correlated with soil loss from consideration in a stepwise way, while the second method performs pairwise comparisons that are adjusted using the Bonferroni correction. Among 12 rainfall factors, I 30 (the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity) has been suggested for use as the rainfall erosivity index, although I 30 is equally correlated with soil loss as factors of I 20, EI 10 (the product of the rainfall kinetic energy, E, and I 10), EI 20 and EI 30 are. Runoff depth (total runoff volume normalized to drainage area) is more correlated with soil loss than all other examined rainfall-runoff factors, including I 30, peak discharge and many combined factors. Moreover, sediment concentrations of major sediment-producing events are independent of all examined rainfall-runoff factors. As a result, introducing additional factors adds little to the prediction accuracy of the single factor of runoff depth. Hence, runoff depth should be the best erosivity index at scales from plots to watersheds. Our findings can facilitate predictions of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. Our methods provide a valuable tool while determining the predictor among a number of variables in terms of correlations. PMID:25781173

Statistical determination of rainfall-runoff erosivity indices for single storms in the Chinese Loess Plateau.

PubMed

Zheng, Mingguo; Chen, Xiaoan

2015-01-01

Correlation analysis is popular in erosion- or earth-related studies, however, few studies compare correlations on a basis of statistical testing, which should be conducted to determine the statistical significance of the observed sample difference. This study aims to statistically determine the erosivity index of single storms, which requires comparison of a large number of dependent correlations between rainfall-runoff factors and soil loss, in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Data observed at four gauging stations and five runoff experimental plots were presented. Based on the Meng's tests, which is widely used for comparing correlations between a dependent variable and a set of independent variables, two methods were proposed. The first method removes factors that are poorly correlated with soil loss from consideration in a stepwise way, while the second method performs pairwise comparisons that are adjusted using the Bonferroni correction. Among 12 rainfall factors, I30 (the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity) has been suggested for use as the rainfall erosivity index, although I30 is equally correlated with soil loss as factors of I20, EI10 (the product of the rainfall kinetic energy, E, and I10), EI20 and EI30 are. Runoff depth (total runoff volume normalized to drainage area) is more correlated with soil loss than all other examined rainfall-runoff factors, including I30, peak discharge and many combined factors. Moreover, sediment concentrations of major sediment-producing events are independent of all examined rainfall-runoff factors. As a result, introducing additional factors adds little to the prediction accuracy of the single factor of runoff depth. Hence, runoff depth should be the best erosivity index at scales from plots to watersheds. Our findings can facilitate predictions of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. Our methods provide a valuable tool while determining the predictor among a number of variables in terms of correlations.

Erosive effects of the storms HELENA (1963) and HUGO (1989) on Basse-Terre island (Guadeloupe - Lesser Antilles Arc).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Bivic, Rejanne; Allemand, Pascal; Delacourt, Christophe; Quiquerez, Amélie

2014-05-01

Basse-Terre is a volcanic island which belongs to the archipelago of Guadeloupe located in the Lesser Antilles Arc (Caribbean Sea). As a mountainous region in the tropical belt, Basse-Terre is affected by intense sediment transport due to extreme meteorological events. During the last fifty years, eight major tropical storms and hurricanes with intense rainfalls induced landslides and scars in the weathered layers. The purpose of this study is to compare two major meteorological events within a period of 26 years (HELENA in 10/1963 and HUGO in 09/1989) in order to qualify the parameters responsible of the spatial distribution of landslides and scars. The storm HELENA affected Basse-Terre between the 23rd and the 25th of October, 1963. The maximal daily rainfall reached 300 mm in Baillif which is located on the leeward coast at the altitude of 650 m while the maximum wind velocity reached 50 km/h. A similar exceptional event happened when the hurricane HUGO slammed the island in September 17, 1989. The maximum daily rainfall recorded in Sainte-Rose (on the northern coast) was 250 mm while it reached 208 mm in Petit-Bourg and the maximum wind speed was 60 km/h. Aerial images were acquired by the IGN (French Geographical Institute) before and a few weeks after the extreme events: less than three months after the event HELENA and less than a month after the event HUGO. Those images have been orthorectified at a metric resolution and combined in a GIS with a 10 m resolution DEM. Scars and landslides were digitalized and their surface area and mean slope were measured for both HELENA and HUGO. This work confirms several results proposed by a previous study related to the HELENA event: (1) the landslides occurred mainly in the center of the island and (2) the slope is the main parameter for the initiation of landslides, since all of them occurred with a slope superior to 30°. Furthermore, the resiliency of the surface affected by the landslides induced by HELENA was studied from 1963 to 1989 through historical aerial images acquired by the IGN in 1963, 1969, 1984 and 1989. Landslide areas were covered with new vegetation within 6 years after a hurricane, due to the opportune weather conditions of heavy rainfalls and high temperature. The comparison between the landslides mapped after two similar events also shows that the zones affected by landslides are set apart. One can conclude that there are no weak zones which are likely to collapse during every meteorological event. These results are particularly relevant for landslide risk management.

Tracer and hydrometric study of preferential flow in large undisturbed soil cores from the Georgia Piedmont, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

McIntosh, Janice; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.; Peters, Norman E.

1999-01-01

We studied the temporal patterns of tracer throughput in the outflow of large (30 cm diameter by 38 cm long) undisturbed cores from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, Georgia. Tracer breakthrough was affected by soil structure and rainfall intensity. Two rainfall intensities (20 and 40 mm hr-1) for separate Cl- and Br- amended solutions were applied to two cores (one extracted from a hillslope soil and one extracted from a residual clay soil on the ridge). For both low and high rainfall intensity experiments, preferential flow occurred in the clay core, but not in the hillslope core. The preferential flow is attributed to well-developed interpedal macrochannels that are commonly found in structured clay soils, characteristic of the ridge site. However, each rainfall intensity exceeded the matrix infiltration capacity at the top of the hillslope core, but did not exceed the matrix infiltration capacity at the middle and bottom of the hillslope core and at all levels in the clay core. Localized zones of saturation created when rainfall intensity exceeds the matrix infiltration capacity may cause water and tracer to overflow from the matrix into macrochannels, where preferential flow occurs to depth in otherwise unsaturated soil. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluation of the Potential of NASA Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis in Global Landslide Hazard Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.

2007-01-01

Landslides are one of the most widespread natural hazards on Earth, responsible for thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in property damage every year. In the U.S. alone landslides occur in every state, causing an estimated $2 billion in damage and 25- 50 deaths each year. Annual average loss of life from landslide hazards in Japan is 170. The situation is much worse in developing countries and remote mountainous regions due to lack of financial resources and inadequate disaster management ability. Recently, a landslide buried an entire village on the Philippines Island of Leyte on Feb 17,2006, with at least 1800 reported deaths and only 3 houses left standing of the original 300. Intense storms with high-intensity , long-duration rainfall have great potential to trigger rapidly moving landslides, resulting in casualties and property damage across the world. In recent years, through the availability of remotely sensed datasets, it has become possible to conduct global-scale landslide hazard assessment. This paper evaluates the potential of the real-time NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) system to advance our understanding of and predictive ability for rainfall-triggered landslides. Early results show that the landslide occurrences are closely associated with the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of rainfall characteristics. Particularly, the number of landslide occurrences and the relative importance of rainfall in triggering landslides rely on the influence of rainfall attributes [e.g. rainfall climatology, antecedent rainfall accumulation, and intensity-duration of rainstorms). TMPA precipitation data are available in both real-time and post-real-time versions, which are useful to assess the location and timing of rainfall-triggered landslide hazards by monitoring landslide-prone areas while receiving heavy rainfall. For the purpose of identifying rainfall-triggered landslides, an empirical global rainfall intensity-duration threshold is developed by examining a number of landslide occurrences and their corresponding TMPA precipitation characteristics across the world. These early results , in combination with TRMM real-time precipitation estimation system, may form a starting point for developing an operational early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides around the globe.

The northward shift of Meiyu rain belt and its possible association with rainfall intensity changes and the Pacific-Japan pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Qingjiu; Sun, Yuting; You, Qinglong

2016-12-01

The meridional location change of Meiyu rain belt and its relationship with the rainfall intensity and circulation background changes for the period 1958-2009 are examined using daily rainfall datasets from 756 stations in China, the 6-h ERA-Interim reanalyses, CRU monthly temperature and daily outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The results indicate that the Meiyu rain belt experienced a northward shift in the late 1990s in response to global warming. Moreover, the intensity of interannual and day-to-day variability of rainfall within Meiyu period has been increasing in the warming climate. The amplification of the variability within Meiyu period over the northern Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHRV) is much larger than that of the southern YHRV. The large difference in the trends of variance within the Meiyu period between these two regions induces a spatial varying for different rainfall categories in terms of intensity. More significant positive trends in heavy and extreme heavy rainfall occur over northern YHRV compared with southern YHRV, which is a crucial indicator of changes in the rain band, despite the observation of an increase in heavy and very heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events throughout the entire YHRV. A composite of the atmospheric circulation indicates that intense northward horizontal transport and the convergence of water vapor fluxes are the immediate causes of the rain band shift. Besides, through forcing a northward extended convection over the tropics, the Pacific-Japan (P-J) pattern induces a northward expansion of western Pacific Subtropical High, leading to intensified convergence and enhanced rainfall over Northern YHRV.

Rainfall intensity and phosphorus source effects on phosphorus transport in surface runoff from soil trays.

PubMed

Shigaki, Francirose; Sharpley, Andrew; Prochnow, Luis Ignacio

2007-02-01

Phosphorus runoff from agricultural fields amended with mineral fertilizers and manures has been linked to freshwater eutrophication. A rainfall simulation study was conducted to evaluate the effects of different rainfall intensities and P sources differing in water soluble P (WSP) concentration on P transport in runoff from soil trays packed with a Berks loam and grassed with annual ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.). Triple superphosphate (TSP; 79% WSP), low-grade super single phosphate (LGSSP; 50% WSP), North Carolina rock phosphate (NCRP; 0.5% WSP) and swine manure (SM; 70% WSP), were broadcast (100 kg total P ha-1) and rainfall applied at 25, 50 and 75 mm h-1 1, 7, 21, and 56 days after P source application. The concentration of dissolved reactive (DRP), particulate (PP), and total P (TP) was significantly (P<0.01) greater in runoff with a rainfall intensity of 75 than 25 mm h-1 for all P sources. Further, runoff DRP increased as P source WSP increased, with runoff from a 50 mm h-1 rain 1 day after source application having a DRP concentration of 0.25 mg L-1 for NCRP and 28.21 mg L-1 for TSP. In contrast, the proportion of runoff TP as PP was greater with low (39% PP for NCRP) than high WSP sources (4% PP for TSP) averaged for all rainfall intensities. The increased PP transport is attributed to the detachment and transport of undissolved P source particles during runoff. These results show that P source water solubility and rainfall intensity can influence P transport in runoff, which is important in evaluating the long-term risks of P source application on P transport in surface runoff.

Spatial and temporal features of heavy rainstorm events in Calabria, Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terranova, Oreste Giuseppe; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Greco, Raffaele

2015-04-01

Heavy rainstorms often induce flash floods, shallow landslides and debris flows, which cause several damage to manmade infrastructures and loss of lives. The analysis of spatial distribution and temporal features of intense rainfall events is a fundamental step for a better understanding of the phenomena and for its possible prediction. The present study is an attempt to improve, from a statistical point of view, the understanding at sub-hourly scale of the temporal and spatial structure of intense rainfall events, by examining those that have hit Calabria (Southern Italy) in the years 1998-2008. More in detail, a considerable amount of series with high temporal detail (5 min) related to 155 sites (one rain gauge per less than 100 sq km), were analysed. First, more than 152 thousands rainfall events, separated by at least 6 hours of dry weather, were recognized. Then, less than a third (45,533) were selected, since denoted as erosive. Finally, several heavy rainstorm events (HREs) were chosen by considering the rainfall events recorded simultaneously at different rain gauges, even non-contiguous, within the region. In particular, this further selection was conducted, based on heuristic threshold values of cumulated rainfall (≥ 100 mm), maximum intensity (≥ 50 mm/h), and kinetic energy (≥ 29 MJ/ha). Therefore, 25 distinct HREs, including all the well-known catastrophic geo-hydrological events, were subjected to thorough investigation. The obtained HREs, automatically classified according to their structure in time, were analysed as regards both spatial and temporal evolution. At this end, the 25 HREs were distinguished as widespread (17) or localized (8), if the affected area is ≥ 500 sq km or < 500 sq km, respectively. In particular, the temporal storm structure was described by means of the standardized rainfall profile (rainfall amount vs. duration, in terms on cumulative percentages). Then, a 4-digit binary shape code was adopted to automatically identify the shape of the profile (Terranova and Iaquinta, 2011; Terranova and Gariano, 2014). HREs have different spatial extents and temporal patterns. A wide spatial extent of the events does not imply damage proportionally high. Generally, a peak at the beginning of the event (thunderstorm-type) characterizes localized events. On the contrary, widespread events present mixed temporal structures with peaks localized in the last half of their duration. The proposed method improves the knowledge regarding the input of rainfall-runoff watershed models. These models can benefit from design storms, based on the synthesis of recorded rainstorms, having a time structure integrated with the results of the spatial analysis. The notable size of the employed sample, including data with a very detailed time resolution that relate to several rain gauges well distributed throughout the region, gives robustness to the obtained results. References O.G. Terranova, and P. Iaquinta.: Temporal properties of rainfall events in Calabria (southern Italy). Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 751-757, 2011. O.G. Terranova, and S.L. Gariano.: Rainstorms able to induce flash floods in a Mediterranean-climate region (Calabria, southern Italy). Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2423-2434, 2014.

Natural variability of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index in the Hawaiian Islands

Treesearch

Klaus Dolling; Pao-Shin Chu; Francis Fujioka

2009-01-01

The Hawaiian Islands experience damaging wildfires on a yearly basis. Soil moisture or lack thereof influences the amount and flammability of vegetation. Incorporating daily maximum temperatures and daily rainfall amounts, the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI) estimates the amount of soil moisture by tracking daily maximum temperatures and rainfall. A previous study...

Rainfall erosivity in Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonilla, Carlos A.; Vidal, Karim L.

2011-11-01

SummaryOne of the most widely used indicators of potential water erosion risk is the rainfall-runoff erosivity factor ( R) of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). R is traditionally determined by calculating a long-term average of the annual sum of the product of a storm's kinetic energy ( E) and its maximum 30-min intensity ( I30), known as the EI30. The original method used to calculate EI30 requires pluviograph records for at most 30-min time intervals. Such high resolution data is difficult to obtain in many parts of the world, and processing it is laborious and time-consuming. In Chile, even though there is a well-distributed rain gauge network, there is no systematic characterization of the territory in terms of rainfall erosivity. This study presents a rainfall erosivity map for most of the cultivated land in the country. R values were calculated by the prescribed method for 16 stations with continuous graphical record rain gauges in Central Chile. The stations were distributed along 800 km (north-south), and spanned a precipitation gradient of 140-2200 mm yr -1. More than 270 years of data were used, and 5400 storms were analyzed. Additionally, 241 spatially distributed R values were generated by using an empirical procedure based on annual rainfall. Point estimates generated by both methods were interpolated by using kriging to create a map of rainfall erosivity for Central Chile. The results show that the empirical procedure used in this study predicted the annual rainfall erosivity well (model efficiency = 0.88). Also, an increment in the rainfall erosivities was found as a result of the rainfall depths, a regional feature determined by elevation and increasing with latitude from north to south. R values in the study area range from 90 MJ mm ha -1 h -1 yr -1 in the north up to 7375 MJ mm ha -1 h -1 yr -1 in the southern area, at the foothills of the Andes Mountains. Although the map and the estimates could be improved in the future by generating additional data points, the erosivity map should prove to be a good tool for land-use planners in Chile and other areas with similar rainfall characteristics.

Early-Holocene intensified Indian summer monsoon and its impact on vegetation: study based on hydrogen and carbon isotope values in long chain alkane from relict lake sediments in the Central Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanyal, P.; Ghosh, S.; Bhushan, R.; Juyal, N.

2017-12-01

The early Holocene was characterized by intensified monsoon, however none of the paleoclimatic records showed the magnitude required to shape the observed landform in the Ganges plain and sediment discharge in the Bay of Bengal. The Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission data suggests that the Central Himalaya ( 2 km altitude) is characterized by high rainfall and hence paleoclimate proxies from this region would provide excellent opportunity to reconstruct the Holocene monsoon. An attempt has been made, for the first time, to reconstruct the Holocene monsoon using n-alkane δDC29 values of lake sediments from Benital area in the Central Himalaya which receives ca. 80% of the mean annual rainfall during summer monsoon. The n-alkane δDC29 values indicated that early Holocene (ca. 9 ka) was characterised by a wet phase with 70% increase in the rainfall followed by the dry middle-late Holocene which is in agreement with existing continental records. However, the change in intensity as inferred in the present study is maximum compared to the existing records. The comparison of δDC29values and the solar insolation data at 30 °N latitude suggested that migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone controlled the variation in monsoonal rainfall. Comparison with the modern plants, the δ13CC29 values indicated that during ca. pre and post 7 ka the lake catchment was dominated by woody and non-woody plants, respectively. The cross plot between δDC29 and δ13CC29 indicated that at higher rainfall, the δ13CC29 values of catchment vegetation were less-responsive.

Convective and Stratiform Precipitation Processes and their Relationship to Latent Heating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Steve; Zeng, Xiping; Shige, Shoichi; Takayabu, Yukari

2009-01-01

The global hydrological cycle is central to the Earth's climate system, with rainfall and the physics of its formation acting as the key links in the cycle. Two-thirds of global rainfall occurs in the Tropics. Associated with this rainfall is a vast amount of heat, which is known as latent heat. It arises mainly due to the phase change of water vapor condensing into liquid droplets; three-fourths of the total heat energy available to the Earth's atmosphere comes from tropical rainfall. In addition, fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability exerts a large impact upon the structure and motions of the upper ocean layer. An improved convective -stratiform heating (CSH) algorithm has been developed to obtain the 3D structure of cloud heating over the Tropics based on two sources of information: 1) rainfall information, namely its amount and the fraction due to light rain intensity, observed directly from the Precipitation Radar (PR) on board the TRMM satellite and 2) synthetic cloud physics information obtained from cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of cloud systems. The cloud simulations provide details on cloud processes, specifically latent heating, eddy heat flux convergence and radiative heating/cooling, that. are not directly observable by satellite. The new CSH algorithm-derived heating has a noticeably different heating structure over both ocean and land regions compared to the previous CSH algorithm. One of the major differences between new and old algorithms is that the level of maximum cloud heating occurs 1 to 1.5 km lower in the atmosphere in the new algorithm. This can effect the structure of the implied air currents associated with the general circulation of the atmosphere in the Tropics. The new CSH algorithm will be used provide retrieved heating data to other heating algorithms to supplement their performance.

[A field experiment of runoff and sediment yielding processes from residues in Shenfu-Dongsheng Coalfield].

PubMed

Li, Jian-Ming; Wang, Wen-Long; Wang, Zhen; Luo, Ting; Li, Hong-Wei; Jin, Jian

2013-12-01

The processes of runoff and sediment yields from and the benefits of water and sediment reductions by the residues produced in the Shenfu-Dongsheng Coalfield were investigated by a simulated field rainfall experiment. The runoff generation time generally presented a decreasing trend with increasing rainfall intensity, but varied widely with the change of residue compositions. Runoff from the slag reached a steady velocity faster than that from the spoil, and the average velocities of runoff from the residues were gradually decreased in the spoil, the slag with more sand and less stone, and the slag with less sand and more stone. Runoff rates for the residues reached a steady rate 6 min after runoff generation, and were significantly correlated with the rainfall intensities. Erosion on the residues mainly occurred in the first 6 min after runoff generation. Average sediment concentrations in the first 6 min were 0.43-4.27 times of those thereafter for the spoil, and 1.43-54.93 times for the slag. The runoff volume was a linear function of the rainfall intensity for the spoil and the slag with more sand and less stone, and was a power function of rainfall intensity for the slag with less sand and more stone. The relationships between single erosion and rainfall intensity for the spoil and the slag with less sand and more stone can be described by exponential and power functions, respectively. For the spoil, the erosion rate was a linear function of the runoff volume. When fish-scale pits and vegetation coverage were adopted on the surface of the slag, the generation of runoff lagged 24 min behind initial rainfall applications at intensities of 1.0 and 1.5 mm x min(-1), and the runoff and sediment yields were reduced by 29.5%-52.9% and 85.7%-97.9%, respectively.

Analysis of water-level fluctuations of the US Highway 90 retention pond, Madison, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bridges, W.C.

1985-01-01

A closed basin stormwater retention pond, located 1 mile west of Madison, Florida, has a maximum storage capacity of 134.1 acre-feet at the overtopping altitude of 100.2 feet. The maximum observed altitude (July 1982 to March 1984) was 99.52 feet (126.7 acre-feet) on March 28, 1984. This report provides a technique for simulating net monthly change-in-altitude in response to rainfall and evaporation. A regression equation was developed which relates net monthly change in altitude (dependent variable) to rainfall and evaporation (independent variables). Rainfall frequency curves were developed using a log-Pearson Type III distribution of the annual, January through April, June through August, and July monthly rainfall totals for the years 1908-72, 1974, 1976-82. The altitude of the retention pond increased almost 7 feet during the 4-month period January through April 1983. The rainfall total was 35.1 inches, and the recurrence interval exceeded the 100-year January-April rainfall. (USGS)

Synergistic effects of seasonal rainfall, parasites and demography on fluctuations in springbok body condition

PubMed Central

Turner, Wendy C.; Versfeld, Wilferd D.; Kilian, J. Werner; Getz, Wayne M.

2011-01-01

Summary 1. Seasonality of rainfall can exert a strong influence on animal condition and on host-parasite interactions. The body condition of ruminants fluctuates seasonally in response to changes in energy requirements, foraging patterns and resource availability, and seasonal variation in parasite infections may further alter ruminant body condition. 2. This study disentangles effects of rainfall and gastrointestinal parasite infections on springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis) body condition and determines how these factors vary among demographic groups. 3. Using data from four years and three study areas, we investigated i) the influence of rainfall variation, demographic factors and parasite interactions on parasite prevalence or infection intensity, ii) whether parasitism or rainfall is a more important predictor of springbok body condition and iii) how parasitism and condition vary among study areas along a rainfall gradient. 4. We found that increased parasite intensity is associated with reduced body condition only for adult females. For all other demographic groups, body condition was significantly related to prior rainfall and not to parasitism. Rainfall lagged by two months had a positive effect on body condition. 5. Adult females showed evidence of a “periparturient rise” in parasite intensity, and had higher parasite intensity and lower body condition than adult males after parturition and during early lactation. After juveniles were weaned, adult females had lower parasite intensity than adult males. Sex differences in parasitism and condition may be due to differences between adult females and males in the seasonal timing of reproductive effort and its effects on host immunity, as well as documented sex differences in vulnerability to predation. 6. Our results highlight that parasites and the environment can synergistically affect host populations, but that these interactions might be masked by their interwoven relationships, their differential impacts on demographic groups, and the different time scales at which they operate. PMID:21831195

Systematic errors in the simulation of the Asian summer monsoon: the role of rainfall variability on a range of time and space scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Gill; Levine, Richard; Klingaman, Nicholas; Bush, Stephanie; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven

2015-04-01

Despite considerable efforts worldwide to improve model simulations of the Asian summer monsoon, significant biases still remain in climatological seasonal mean rainfall distribution, timing of the onset, and northward and eastward extent of the monsoon domain (Sperber et al., 2013). Many modelling studies have shown sensitivity to convection and boundary layer parameterization, cloud microphysics and land surface properties, as well as model resolution. Here we examine the problems in representing short-timescale rainfall variability (related to convection parameterization), problems in representing synoptic-scale systems such as monsoon depressions (related to model resolution), and the relationship of each of these with longer-term systematic biases. Analysis of the spatial distribution of rainfall intensity on a range of timescales ranging from ~30 minutes to daily, in the MetUM and in observations (where available), highlights how rainfall biases in the South Asian monsoon region on different timescales in different regions can be achieved in models through a combination of the incorrect frequency and/or intensity of rainfall. Over the Indian land area, the typical dry bias is related to sub-daily rainfall events being too infrequent, despite being too intense when they occur. In contrast, the wet bias regions over the equatorial Indian Ocean are mainly related to too frequent occurrence of lower-than-observed 3-hourly rainfall accumulations which result in too frequent occurrence of higher-than-observed daily rainfall accumulations. This analysis sheds light on the model deficiencies behind the climatological seasonal mean rainfall biases that many models exhibit in this region. Changing physical parameterizations alters this behaviour, with associated adjustments in the climatological rainfall distribution, although the latter is not always improved (Bush et al., 2014). This suggests a more complex interaction between the diabatic heating and the large-scale circulation than is indicated by the intensity and frequency of rainfall alone. Monsoon depressions and low pressure systems are important contributors to monsoon rainfall over central and northern India, areas where MetUM climate simulations typically show deficient monsoon rainfall. Analysis of MetUM climate simulations at resolutions ranging from N96 (~135km) to N512 (~25km) suggests that at lower resolution the numbers and intensities of monsoon depressions and low pressure systems and their associated rainfall are very low compared with re-analyses/observations. We show that there are substantial increases with horizontal resolution, but resolution is not the only factor. Idealised simulations, either using nudged atmospheric winds or initialised coupled hindcasts, which improve (strengthen) the mean state monsoon and cyclonic circulation over the Indian peninsula, also result in a substantial increase in monsoon depressions and associated rainfall. This suggests that a more realistic representation of monsoon depressions is possible even at lower resolution if the larger-scale systematic error pattern in the monsoon is improved.

An improved rainfall disaggregation technique for GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onof, C.; Mackay, N. G.; Oh, L.; Wheater, H. S.

1998-08-01

Meteorological models represent rainfall as a mean value for a grid square so that when the latter is large, a disaggregation scheme is required to represent the spatial variability of rainfall. In general circulation models (GCMs) this is based on an assumption of exponentiality of rainfall intensities and a fixed value of areal rainfall coverage, dependent on rainfall type. This paper examines these two assumptions on the basis of U.K. and U.S. radar data. Firstly, the coverage of an area is strongly dependent on its size, and this dependence exhibits a scaling law over a range of sizes. Secondly, the coverage is, of course, dependent on the resolution at which it is measured, although this dependence is weak at high resolutions. Thirdly, the time series of rainfall coverages has a long-tailed autocorrelation function which is comparable to that of the mean areal rainfalls. It is therefore possible to reproduce much of the temporal dependence of coverages by using a regression of the log of the mean rainfall on the log of the coverage. The exponential assumption is satisfactory in many cases but not able to reproduce some of the long-tailed dependence of some intensity distributions. Gamma and lognormal distributions provide a better fit in these cases, but they have their shortcomings and require a second parameter. An improved disaggregation scheme for GCMs is proposed which incorporates the previous findings to allow the coverage to be obtained for any area and any mean rainfall intensity. The parameters required are given and some of their seasonal behavior is analyzed.

Enhancement of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks on the Australian summer monsoon by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notaro, Michael

2018-01-01

A regional climate modeling analysis of the Australian monsoon system reveals a substantial modulation of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), both of which operate at similar sub-seasonal time scales, as evidence that the intensity of land-atmosphere interactions is sensitive to the background atmospheric state. Based on ensemble experiments with imposed modification of northern Australian leaf area index (LAI), the atmospheric responses to LAI anomalies are composited for negative and positive modes of the propagating MJO. In the regional climate model (RCM), northern Australian vegetation feedbacks are characterized by evapotranspiration (ET)-driven rainfall responses, with the moisture feedback mechanism dominating over albedo and roughness feedback mechanisms. During November-April, both Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and RCM data reveal MJO's pronounced influence on rainfall patterns across northern Australia, tropical Indian Ocean, Timor Sea, Arafura Sea, and Gulf of Carpentaria, with the MJO dominating over vegetation feedbacks in terms of regulating monsoon rainfall variability. Convectively-active MJO phases support an enhancement of positive vegetation feedbacks on monsoon rainfall. While the MJO imposes minimal regulation of ET responses to LAI anomalies, the vegetation feedback-induced responses in precipitable water, cloud water, and rainfall are greatly enhanced during convectively-active MJO phases over northern Australia, which are characterized by intense low-level convergence and efficient precipitable water conversion. The sub-seasonal response of vegetation-rainfall feedback intensity to the MJO is complex, with significant enhancement of rainfall responses to LAI anomalies in February during convectively-active MJO phases compared to minimal modulation by the MJO during prior and subsequent calendar months.

Evaluation of high intensity precipitation from 16 Regional climate models over a meso-scale catchment in the Midlands Regions of England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetterhall, F.; He, Y.; Cloke, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Freer, J.; Wilson, M.; McGregor, G.

2009-04-01

Local flooding events are often triggered by high-intensity rain-fall events, and it is important that these can be correctly modelled by Regional Climate Models (RCMs) if the results are to be used in climate impact assessment. In this study, daily precipitation from 16 RCMs was compared with observations over a meso-scale catchment in the Midlands Region of England. The RCM data was provided from the European research project ENSEMBLES and the precipitation data from the UK MetOffice. The RCMs were all driven by reanalysis data from the ERA40 dataset over the time period 1961-2000. The ENSEMBLES data is on the spatial scale of 25 x 25 km and it was disaggregated onto a 5 x 5 km grid over the catchment and compared with interpolated observational data with the same resolution. The mean precipitation was generally underestimated by the ENSEMBLES data, and the maximum and persistence of high intensity rainfall was even more underestimated. The inter-annual variability was not fully captured by the RCMs, and there was a systematic underestimation of precipitation during the autumn months. The spatial pattern in the modelled precipitation data was too smooth in comparison with the observed data, especially in the high altitudes in the western part of the catchment where the high precipitation usually occurs. The RCM outputs cannot reproduce the current high intensity precipitation events that are needed to sufficiently model extreme flood events. The results point out the discrepancy between climate model output and the high intensity precipitation input needs for hydrological impact modelling.

Rainfall-induced landslides in Puerto Rico: An overview

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pando, M.A.; Ruiz, M.E.; Larsen, M.C.

2005-01-01

Rainfall-induced landslides are common in Puerto Rico (PR). The presence of steep slopes in mountainous terrain, coupled with weathered soils and intense rainfall, leads to severe slope-stability problems throughout the island. Episodic triggering events such as hurricanes and earthquakes further exacerbate these problems. All physiographic provinces of the island have experienced landslides. The stability of natural and man-made slopes is a serious concern for government authorities and the civil engineering community in Puerto Rico. This paper presents an overview of the rainfall induced landslide problem in PR, a summary of literature published on this subject, and proposes a rainfall intensity landslide threshold based on landslide events data from 1959 to 2003. This threshold can be used as part of a potential landslide warning system.

Observed changes in extremes of daily rainfall and temperature in Jemma Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worku, Gebrekidan; Teferi, Ermias; Bantider, Amare; Dile, Yihun T.

2018-02-01

Climate variability has been a threat to the socio-economic development of Ethiopia. This paper examined the changes in rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature extremes of Jemma Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin for the period of 1981 to 2014. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, seasonal Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate annual trends. Ten rainfall and 12 temperature indices were used to study changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. The results showed an increasing trend of annual and summer rainfall in more than 78% of the stations and a decreasing trend of spring rainfall in most of the stations. An increase in rainfall extreme events was detected in the majority of the stations. Several rainfall extreme indices showed wetting trends in the sub-basin, whereas limited indices indicated dryness in most of the stations. Annual maximum and minimum temperature and extreme temperature indices showed warming trend in the sub-basin. Presence of extreme rainfall and a warming trend of extreme temperature indices may suggest signs of climate change in the Jemma Sub-Basin. This study, therefore, recommended the need for exploring climate induced risks and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Multi-decadal Hydrological Retrospective: Case study of Amazon floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de; Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Collischonn, Walter

2017-06-01

Recently developed methodologies such as climate reanalysis make it possible to create a historical record of climate systems. This paper proposes a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), which essentially simulates large rainfall datasets, using this as input into hydrological models to develop a record of past hydrology, making it possible to analyze past floods and droughts. We developed a methodology for the Amazon basin, where studies have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in recent decades. We used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) as input for a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH). HR products were then validated against several in situ discharge gauges controlling the main Amazon sub-basins, focusing on maximum and minimum events. For the most accurate HR, based on performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts, comparing the results with in-situ observations. A statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and droughts in the entire Amazon basin. Results indicate that HR could represent most past extreme events well, compared with in-situ observed data, and was consistent with many events reported in literature. Because of their flow duration, some minor regional events were not reported in literature but were captured by HR. To represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events, we believe it is feasible to use some large precipitation datasets such as i) climate reanalysis, which is mainly based on a land surface component, and ii) datasets based on merged products. A significant upward trend in intensity was seen in maximum annual discharge (related to floods) in western and northwestern regions and for minimum annual discharge (related to droughts) in south and central-south regions of the Amazon basin. Because of the global coverage of rainfall datasets, this methodology can be transferred to other regions for better estimation of future hydrological behavior and its impact on society.

Initial hydrologic and geomorphic response following a wildfire in the Colorado front range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, J.A.; Martin, D.A.

2001-01-01

A wildfire in May 1996 burned 4690 hectares in two watersheds forested by ponderosa pine and Douglas fir in a steep, mountainous landscape with a summer, convective thunderstorm precipitation regime. The wildfire lowered the erosion threshold in the watersheds, and consequently amplified the subsequent erosional response to shorter time interval episodic rainfall and created both erosional and depositional features in a complex pattern throughout the watersheds. The initial response during the first four years was an increase in runoff and erosion rates followed by decreases toward pre-fire rates. The maximum unit-area peak discharge was 24 m3 s-1 km-2 for a rainstorm in 1996 with a rain intensity of 90 mm h-1. Recovery to pre-fire conditions seems to have occured by 2000 because for a maximum 30-min rainfall intensity of 50 mm h-1, the unit-area peak discharge in 1997 was 6.6 m3 s-1 km-2, while in 2000 a similar intensity produced only 0.11 m3 s-1 km-2. Rill erosion accounted for 6 per cent, interrill erosion for 14 per cent, and drainage erosion for 80 per cent of the initial erosion in 1996. This represents about a 200-fold increase in erosion rates on hillslopes which had a recovery or relaxation time of about three years. About 67 per cent of the initially eroded sediment is still stored in the watersheds after four years with an estimated residence time greater than 300 years. This residence time is much greater than the fire recurrence interval so erosional and depositional features may become legacies from the wildfire and may affect landscape evolution by acting as a new set of initial conditions for subsequent wildfire and flood sequences. Published in 2001 by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Physically-based quantitative analysis of soil erosion induced by heavy rainfall on steep slopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Della Sala, Maria; Cuomo, Sabatino; Novità, Antonio

2014-05-01

Heavy rainstorms cause either shallow landslides or soil superficial erosion in steep hillslopes covered by coarse unsaturated soils (Cascini et al., 2013), even over large areas (Cuomo and Della Sala, 2013a). The triggering stage of both phenomena is related to ground infiltration, runoff and overland flow (Cuomo and Della Sala, 2013), which are key processes to be investigated. In addition, the mobilization of solid particles deserves a proper physical-based modeling whether a quantitative estimation of solid particles discharge at the outlet of mountain basin is required. In this work, the approaches for soil superficial erosion analysis are firstly reviewed; then, a relevant case study of two medium-sized mountain basins, affected by flow-like phenomena with huge consequences (Cascini et al., 2009) is presented, which motivates a parametric numerical analysis with a physically-based model carried out for a wide class of soil properties and rainfall scenarios (Cuomo et al., 2013b). The achieved results outline that the peak discharge of water and solid particles driven by overland flow depends on rainfall intensity while volumetric solid concentration within the washout is related to the morphometric features of the whole mountain basin. Furthermore, soil suction is outlined as a key factor for the spatial-temporal evolution of infiltration and runoff in the basin, also affecting the discharge of water and solid particles at the outlet of the basin. Based on these insights, selected cases are analyzed aimed to provide a wide class of possible slope erosion scenarios. It is shown that, provided the same amount of cumulated rainfall, the sequence of high and low intensity rainfall events strongly affects the time-discharge at the outlet of the basin without significant variations of the maximum volumetric solid concentration. References Cascini, L., Cuomo, S., Ferlisi, S., Sorbino, G. (2009). Detection of mechanisms for destructive landslides in Campania region-southern Italy. Proc. of the first Italian Workshop on Landslides, 8-10 June 2009 Naples, Italy, vol 1. Studio Editoriale Doppiavoce, Naples, pp 43-51. Cascini, L., Sorbino, G., Cuomo, S., Ferlisi, S. (2013). Seasonal effects of rainfall on the shallow pyroclastic deposits of the Campania region (southern Italy). Landslides, 1-14, DOI: 10.1007/s10346-013-0395-3. Cuomo S., Della Sala M. (2013a). Spatially distributed analysis of shallow landslides and soil erosion induced by rainfall. (submitted to Natural Hazards). Cuomo, S., Della Sala, M. (2013b). Rainfall-induced infiltration, runoff and failure in steep unsaturated shallow soil deposits. Engineering Geology. 162, 118-127. Cuomo, S., Della Sala, M., Novità A. (2013). Physically-based modeling of soil erosion induced by rainfall on steep slopes. (submitted to Geomorphology).

Revision of the Rainfall-intensity Duration Curves for the commonwealth of Kentucky.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-06-01

The purpose of this study was to revise and update the existing Rainfall Intensity- Duration-Frequency (IDF) Curves for the Commonwealth of Kentucky. The nine curves that currently govern Kentucky are based on data from First-Order Weather Stations i...

Large Salt Dust Storms Follow a 30-Year Rainfall Cycle in the Mar Chiquita Lake (Córdoba, Argentina)

PubMed Central

Stein, Ariel F.

2016-01-01

Starting in 2006, a new source of intense salt dust storms developed in Mar Chiquita (Córdoba, Argentina), the largest saline lake in South America. Storms originate from vast mudflats left by a 30-year expansion-retreat cycle of the lake due to changes in the regional rainfall regime. The annual frequency of salt dust storms correlated with the size of the salt mudflats. Events were restricted to the coldest months, and reached up to 800 km from the source. Occurrence of dust storms was associated with specific surface colors and textures easily identifiable in satellite images. High-emission surfaces were characterized by the presence of sodium sulfate hydrous/anhydrous crystals (mirabilite and thenardite), and a superficial and variable water table, which may result in the periodic development of a characteristic “fluffy” surface derived from salt precipitation-dissolution processes. HYSPLIT model simulation estimates a deposition maximum near the sources (of about 2.5 kg/ha/yr), and a decreasing trend from the emission area outwards, except for the relative secondary maximum modeled over the mountain ranges in southern Bolivia and northern Argentina due to an orographic effect. The 2009 total deposition of salt dust generated in Mar Chiquita was estimated at 6.5 million tons. PMID:27258088

Large Salt Dust Storms Follow a 30-Year Rainfall Cycle in the Mar Chiquita Lake (Córdoba, Argentina).

PubMed

Bucher, Enrique H; Stein, Ariel F

2016-01-01

Starting in 2006, a new source of intense salt dust storms developed in Mar Chiquita (Córdoba, Argentina), the largest saline lake in South America. Storms originate from vast mudflats left by a 30-year expansion-retreat cycle of the lake due to changes in the regional rainfall regime. The annual frequency of salt dust storms correlated with the size of the salt mudflats. Events were restricted to the coldest months, and reached up to 800 km from the source. Occurrence of dust storms was associated with specific surface colors and textures easily identifiable in satellite images. High-emission surfaces were characterized by the presence of sodium sulfate hydrous/anhydrous crystals (mirabilite and thenardite), and a superficial and variable water table, which may result in the periodic development of a characteristic "fluffy" surface derived from salt precipitation-dissolution processes. HYSPLIT model simulation estimates a deposition maximum near the sources (of about 2.5 kg/ha/yr), and a decreasing trend from the emission area outwards, except for the relative secondary maximum modeled over the mountain ranges in southern Bolivia and northern Argentina due to an orographic effect. The 2009 total deposition of salt dust generated in Mar Chiquita was estimated at 6.5 million tons.

Effects on run-off water quantity and quality of urban organic wastes applied in a degraded semi-arid ecosystem.

PubMed

Martínez, F; Casermeiro, M A; Morales, D; Cuevas, G; Walter, Ingrid

2003-04-15

Biosolids and composted municipal solid wastes were surface-applied (0 and 80 Mg ha(-1)) to a degraded soil in a semi-arid environment to determine their effects on the quantity and quality of run-off water. Three and 4 years after application, a simulated rainfall was performed (intensity=942.5 ml min(-1) and kinetic energy=3.92 J m(-2)) on 0.078 m(2) plots using a portable rainfall simulator. The run-off from the different treatment plots was collected and analysed. The type of treatment was highly related to infiltration, run-off and sediment production. The biosolid-treated plots showed the minimum value of total run-off, maximum time to the beginning of run-off and maximum run-off ratio (the relationship between total rainfall and run-off). The MSW-treated plots showed values intermediate between biosolid-treated plots and control plots. Soil losses were also closely related to treatment type. Control plots showed the maximum sediment yield, MSW-treated plots showed intermediate values, and biosolid plots the minimum values for washout. The concentrations of NH(4)-N and PO(4)-P in the run-off water were significantly higher in the treated plots than in control plots. The highest PO(4)-P value, 0.73 mg l(-1), was obtained in the soil treated with biosolids; NO(3)-N concentration also increased significantly with respect to the control and MSW treatments. NH(4)-N concentrations of 15.6 and 15.0 mg l(-1) were recorded in the soils treated with biosolids and MSW, respectively, values approximately five times higher than those obtained in run-off water from untreated soil. However, the concentrations of all these constituents were lower than threshold limits cited in water quality standards for agricultural use. With the exception of Cu, all trace metals analysed in the run-off water were below detection limits.

Assessing the accuracy of weather radar to track intense rain cells in the Greater Lyon area, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renard, Florent; Chapon, Pierre-Marie; Comby, Jacques

2012-01-01

The Greater Lyon is a dense area located in the Rhône Valley in the south east of France. The conurbation counts 1.3 million inhabitants and the rainfall hazard is a great concern. However, until now, studies on rainfall over the Greater Lyon have only been based on the network of rain gauges, despite the presence of a C-band radar located in the close vicinity. Consequently, the first aim of this study was to investigate the hydrological quality of this radar. This assessment, based on comparison of radar estimations and rain-gauges values concludes that the radar data has overall a good quality since 2006. Given this good accuracy, this study made a next step and investigated the characteristics of intense rain cells that are responsible of the majority of floods in the Greater Lyon area. Improved knowledge on these rainfall cells is important to anticipate dangerous events and to improve the monitoring of the sewage system. This paper discusses the analysis of the ten most intense rainfall events in the 2001-2010 period. Spatial statistics pointed towards straight and linear movements of intense rainfall cells, independently on the ground surface conditions and the topography underneath. The speed of these cells was found nearly constant during a rainfall event, but depend from event to ranges on average from 25 to 66 km/h.

Sub-seasonal behaviour of Asian summer monsoon under a changing climate: assessments using CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sooraj, K. P.; Terray, Pascal; Xavier, Prince

2016-06-01

Numerous global warming studies show the anticipated increase in mean precipitation with the rising levels of carbon dioxide concentration. However, apart from the changes in mean precipitation, the finer details of daily precipitation distribution, such as its intensity and frequency (so called daily rainfall extremes), need to be accounted for while determining the impacts of climate changes in future precipitation regimes. Here we examine the climate model projections from a large set of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 models, to assess these future aspects of rainfall distribution over Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region. Our assessment unravels a north-south rainfall dipole pattern, with increased rainfall over Indian subcontinent extending into the western Pacific region (north ASM region, NASM) and decreased rainfall over equatorial oceanic convergence zone over eastern Indian Ocean region (south ASM region, SASM). This robust future pattern is well conspicuous at both seasonal and sub-seasonal time scales. Subsequent analysis, using daily rainfall events defined using percentile thresholds, demonstrates that mean rainfall changes over NASM region are mainly associated with more intense and more frequent extreme rainfall events (i.e. above 95th percentile). The inference is that there are significant future changes in rainfall probability distributions and not only a uniform shift in the mean rainfall over the NASM region. Rainfall suppression over SASM seems to be associated with changes involving multiple rainfall events and shows a larger model spread, thus making its interpretation more complex compared to NASM. Moisture budget diagnostics generally show that the low-level moisture convergence, due to stronger increase of water vapour in the atmosphere, acts positively to future rainfall changes, especially for heaviest rainfall events. However, it seems that the dynamic component of moisture convergence, associated with vertical motion, shows a strong spatial and rainfall category dependency, sometimes offsetting the effect of the water vapour increase. Additionally, we found that the moisture convergence is mainly dominated by the climatological vertical motion acting on the humidity changes and the interplay between all these processes proves to play a pivotal role for regulating the intensities of various rainfall events in the two domains.

Some Advances in Downscaling Probabilistic Climate Forecasts for Agricultural Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, E.; Ines, A.

2015-12-01

Seasonal climate forecasts, commonly provided in tercile-probabilities format (below-, near- and above-normal), need to be translated into more meaningful information for decision support of practitioners in agriculture. In this paper, we will present two new novel approaches to temporally downscale probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts: one non-parametric and another parametric method. First, the non-parametric downscaling approach called FResampler1 uses the concept of 'conditional block sampling' of weather data to create daily weather realizations of a tercile-based seasonal climate forecasts. FResampler1 randomly draws time series of daily weather parameters (e.g., rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and solar radiation) from historical records, for the season of interest from years that belong to a certain rainfall tercile category (e.g., being below-, near- and above-normal). In this way, FResampler1 preserves the covariance between rainfall and other weather parameters as if conditionally sampling maximum and minimum temperature and solar radiation if that day is wet or dry. The second approach called predictWTD is a parametric method based on a conditional stochastic weather generator. The tercile-based seasonal climate forecast is converted into a theoretical forecast cumulative probability curve. Then the deviates for each percentile is converted into rainfall amount or frequency or intensity to downscale the 'full' distribution of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts. Those seasonal deviates are then disaggregated on a monthly basis and used to constrain the downscaling of forecast realizations at different percentile values of the theoretical forecast curve. As well as the theoretical basis of the approaches we will discuss sensitivity analysis (length of data and size of samples) of them. In addition their potential applications for managing climate-related risks in agriculture will be shown through a couple of case studies based on actual seasonal climate forecasts for: rice cropping in the Philippines and maize cropping in India and Kenya.

Spatial Precipitation Frequency of an Extreme Event: the July 2006 Mesoscale Convective Complexes and Debris Flows in Southeastern Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, P. G.; Webb, W. H.; Magirl, C. S.; Pytlak, E.

2008-12-01

An extreme, multi-day rainfall event over southeastern Arizona during 27-31 July 2006 culminated in an historically unprecedented spate of 435 slope failures and associated debris flows in the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson. Previous to this occurrence, only twenty small debris flows had been observed in this region over the past 100 years. Although intense orographic precipitation is routinely delivered by single- cell thunderstorms to the Santa Catalinas during the North American monsoon, in this case repeated nocturnal mesoscale convective systems were induced over southeastern Arizona by an upper-level low- pressure system centered over the Four Corners region for five continuous days, generating five-day rainfall totals up to 360 mm. Calibrating weather radar data with point rainfall data collected at 31 rain gages, mean-area storms totals for the southern Santa Catalina Mountains were calculated for 754 radar grid cells at a resolution of approximately 1 km2 to provide a detailed picture of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall during the event. Precipitation intensity for the 31 July storms was typical for monsoonal precipitation in this region, with peak 15-minute rainfall averaging 17 mm/hr for a recurrence interval (RI) < 1 yr. However, RI > 50 yrs for four-day rainfall totals overall, RI > 100 yrs where slope failures occurred, and RI > 1000 yrs for individual grid cells in the heart of the slope failure zone. A comparison of rainfall at locations where debris-flows did and did not occur suggests an intensity (I)-duration (D) threshold for debris flow occurrence for the Santa Catalina Mountains of I = 14.82D-0.39(I in mm/hr). This threshold falls slightly higher than the 1000-year rainfall predicted for this area. The relatively large exponent reflects the high frequency of short-duration, high-intensity rainfall and the relative rarity of the long-duration rainfall that triggered these debris flows. Analysis of the rainfall/runoff ratio in the drainage basin at the heart of the debris flows confirms that sediments were nearly saturated before debris flows were initiated on July 31.

Response mechanism of post-earthquake slopes under heavy rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Hong-zhi; Kong, Ji-ming; Wang, Ren-chao; Cui, Yun; Huang, Sen-wang

2017-07-01

This paper uses the catastrophic landslide that occurred in Zhongxing Town, Dujiangyan City, as an example to study the formation mechanism of landslides induced by heavy rainfall in the post-Wenchuan earthquake area. The deformation characteristics of a slope under seismic loading were investigated via a shaking table test. The results show that a large number of cracks formed in the slope due to the tensile and shear forces of the vibrations, and most of the cracks had angles of approximately 45° with respect to the horizontal. A series of flume tests were performed to show how the duration and intensity of rainfall influence the responses of the shaken and non-shaken slopes. Wetting fronts were recorded under different rainfall intensities, and the depth of rainfall infiltration was greater in the shaken slope than in the non-shaken slope because the former experienced a greater extreme rainfall intensity under the same early rainfall and rainfall duration conditions. At the beginning of the rainfall infiltration experiment, the pore water pressure in the slope was negative, and settling occurred at the top of the slope. With increasing rainfall, the pore water pressure changed from negative to positive, and cracks were observed on the back surface of the slope and the shear outlet of the landslide on the front of the slope. The shaken slope was more susceptible to crack formation than the non-shaken slope under the same rainfall conditions. A comparison of the responses of the shaken and non-shaken slopes under heavy rainfall revealed that cracks formed by earthquakes provided channels for infiltration. Soil particles in the cracks of slopes were washed away, and the pore water pressure increased rapidly, especially the transient pore water pressure in the slope caused by short-term concentrated rainfall which decreased rock strength and slope stability.

Influences of Hydrological Regime on Runoff Quality and Pollutant Loadings in Tropical Urban Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, M.; Yusop, Z.

2011-12-01

Experience in many developed countries suggests that non point source (NPS) pollution is still the main contributor to pollutant loadings into water bodies in urban areas. However, the mechanism of NPS pollutant transport and the influences of hydrologic regime on the pollutant loading are still unclear. Understanding these interactions will be useful for improving design criteria and strategies for controlling NPS pollution in urban areas. This issue is also extremely relevant in tropical environment because its rainfall and the runoff generation processes are so different from the temperate regions where most of the studies on NPS pollutant have been carried out. In this regard, an intensive study to investigate the extent of this pollution was carried out in Skudai, Johor, Malaysia. Three small catchments, each represents commercial, residential and industrial land use were selected. Stormwater samples and flow rate data were collected at these catchments over 52 storm events from year 2008 to 2009. Samples were analyzed for ten water quality constituents including total suspended solids, 5-day biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, oil and grease, nitrate nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, soluble phosphorus, total phosphorus and zinc. Quality of stormwater runoff is estimated using Event Mean Concentration (EMC) value. The storm characteristics analyzed included rainfall depth, rainfall duration, mean intensity, max 5 minutes intensity, antecedent dry day, runoff volume and peak flow. Correlation coefficients were determined between storm parameters and EMCs for the residential, commercial and industrial catchments. Except for the antecedent storm mean intensity and antecedent dry days, the other rainfall and runoff variables were negatively correlated with EMCs of most pollutants. This study reinforced the earlier findings on the importance of antecedent dry days for causing greater EMC values with exceptions for oil and grease, nitrate nitrogen, total phosphorus and zinc. There is no positive correlation between rainfall intensity and EMC of constituents in all the studied catchments. In contrast, the pollutant loadings are influenced primarily by the rainfall and runoff characteristics. Rainfall depth, mean intensity, max 5 minute intensity, runoff volume and peak flow were positively correlated with the loadings of most of the constituents. Antecedent storm mean intensity and antecedent dry days seemed to be less important for estimating the pollutant loadings. Such study should be further conducted for acquiring a long term monitoring data related to storm runoff quality during rainfall, in order to have a better understanding on NPS pollution in urban areas.

Determination of the components of stormflow using water chemistry and environmental isotopes, Mattole River basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, V.C.; Kendall, C.; Zellweger, G.W.; Wyerman, T.A.; Avanzino, R.J.

1986-01-01

The chemical and isotopic composition of rainfall and stream water was monitored during a storm in the Mattole River basin of northwestern California. About 250 mm of rain fell during 6 days (???80% within a 42 h period) in late January, 1972, following 24 days of little or no precipitation. River discharge near Petrolia increased from 22 m3 s-1 to a maximum of 1300 m3 s-1 while chloride and silica concentrations decreased only from 3.2 to 2.1 and 11.5 to 8.6 mgl-1, respectively. Meanwhile, the isotopic composition of the river changed from ??D = - 42???, ??180 = - 6.8??? and 40 tritium units (T.U.) to extreme values at highest flow of ??D = - 35???, ??180 = - 5.9??? and 25 T.U. in response to volume-weighted rainfall averaging ??D = - 19.5???, ??180 = - 3.1??? and 18 T.U. Despite much rainfall of a composition quite different from that of the prestorm river water, "buffering" processes in the watershed greatly restricted changes in the chemical and isotopic content of the river during storm runoff. Because of the physical and hydrologic characteristics of the watershed, major contributions of groundwater to stormflow are very unlikely. The large increase in dissolved chemical load observed at maximum river discharge required that extensive interaction with, and presumably penetration of, soils occurred within a few hours time. Such a large increase in chemical load also required subsurface stormflow throughout a high proportion of the watershed. Chemical and isotopic stabilization of stormflow is believed to be due mainly to displacement of prestorm soil water, with some effects on river chemistry due to rapid rain-soil interactions. The isotopic and chemical composition of prestorm soil moisture cannot readily be predicted a priori because of possible variability in rainfall composition, evaporation, and exchange with atmospheric moisture, nor can it be assumed that baseflow has a predictable relation to the chemical or isotopic composition of water displaced from soils during storms. Therefore, it seems inappropriate to draw conclusions as to the relative proportions of groundwater and rainfall in runoff from a particular storm based only on the average compositions of rainfall, stormflow, and prestorm river water, as has been done in most previous isotope hydrograph studies. Given the great variation in hydrology, topography, soil characteristics, rainfall intensity and quantity, etc. from place to place, the relative amount of overland flow, subsurface flow from the unsaturated zone and of groundwater in stormflow can vary greatly in time and space. ?? 1986.

Capturing the Initiation and Spatial Variability of Runoff on Soils Affected by Wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, D. A.; Wickert, A. D.; Moody, J. A.

2011-12-01

Rainfall after wildfire often leads to intense runoff and erosion, since fire removes ground cover that impedes overland flow and water is unable to efficiently infiltrate into the fire-affected soils. In order to understand the relation between rainfall, infiltration, and runoff, we modified a camera to be triggered by a rain gage to take time-lapse photographs of the ground surface every 10 seconds until the rain stops. This camera allows us to observe directly the patterns of ground surface ponding, the initiation of overland flow, and erosion/deposition during single rainfall events. The camera was deployed on a hillslope (average slope = 23 degrees) that was severely burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire near Boulder, Colorado. The camera's field of view is approximately 3 m2. We integrate the photographs with rainfall and overland flow measurements to determine thresholds for the initiation of overland flow and erosion. We have recorded the spatial variability of wetted patches of ground and the connection of these patches together to initiate overland flow. To date we have recorded images for rain storms with 30-minute maximum intensities ranging from 5 mm/h (our threshold to trigger continuous photographs) to 32 mm/h. In the near future we will update the camera's control system to 1) include a clock to enable time-lapse photographs at a lower frequency in addition to the event-triggered images, and 2) to add a radio to allow the camera to be triggered remotely. Radio communication will provide a means of starting the camera in response to non-local events, allowing us to capture images or video of flash flood surge fronts and debris flows, and to synchronize the operations of multiple cameras in the field. Schematics and instructions to build this camera station, which can be used to take either photos or video, are open-source licensed and are available online at http://instaar.colorado.edu/~wickert/atvis. It is our hope that this tool can be used by other researchers to better understand processes in burned watersheds and other sensitive areas that are likely to respond rapidly to rainfall.

The oscillating fringe and paleo-intensity of the East Asian monsoon reconstructed using closed-basin lake-area and dDwax

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldsmith, Y.; Broecker, W. S.; Polissar, P. J.; Xu, H.; Lan, J.; Zhou, W.; An, Z.; deMenocal, P. B.

2016-12-01

The magnitude, rate and extent of East Asian Monsoon (EAM) rainfall changes during the late Pleistocene-Holocene is reconstructed using the first well-dated northeastern China lake-area record from a closed-lake basin, which enables reconstructing quantitative absolute paleo-rainfall amounts. In addition, compound specific hydrogen isotopes (dDwax) from lake-sediments are used to reconstruct the isotopic composition of rainwater (dP). Lake-levels were 60m higher than present during the early and middle Holocene. Requiring an absolute increase in mean annual rainfall to at least two times higher than today and a 400 km northward expansion. The EAM intensity and northern extent alternated abruptly between wet and dry periods on time scales of a few centuries. Both the onset ( 60 m rise at 11.5 ka BP) and termination ( 35 m drop at 5.5 ka BP) of the Holocene humid period occurred abruptly, within centuries. dDwax is negatively correlated with the lake area record (R2=0.77), showing for the first time, the co-evolution of dP and local rainfall amount. Lake level is also highly correlated with Both North and South Chinese stalagmite records. These results indicate that local distillation is a significant control on dP in East China, and that local rainfall amount is correlated with the intensity of the large EAM system. These results resolve a current debate regarding the use of dP as a proxy for rainfall amount and validate the "intensity-based" interpretations of the Chinese cave deposit records. The lake is located at the modern NW boundary of the EAM, therefore, lake level is governed by the northward extent of the EAM. The covariation of lake level and the intensity of the monsoon indicate that intensity and northward expansion of the EAM are linked and that during intense (weak) EAM periods the EAM northwestern boundary shifts northward (southward).

Effect of intense short rainfall events on coastal water quality parameters from remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbari, Chiara; Lassini, Fabio; Mancini, Marco

2016-07-01

Strong rainfall events, especially during summer, in small river basins cause spills in the sea that often compromise the quality of coastal waters. The goal of this paper is then to study the changes of coastal waters quality as a result of intense rainfall events during the bathing season through the use of remote sensing data. These analyses are performed at the outlets of small watersheds which are not usually affected by high sediment transport as in the case of large basins which are persistently affected by intense solid transport which does not allow retrieving a reliable correlation between rainfall events and water quality parameters. Four small watersheds in different Italian regions on the Mediterranean Sea are selected for this study. The remotely sensed parameters of turbidity, total suspend solids and secchi disk depth, are retrieved from MODIS data. Secchi disk depths are also compared to available ground data during the summer seasons between 2003 and 2006 showing good correlations. Then the spatial and temporal changes of these parameters are analyzed after intense short storm events. Increases of turbidity and total suspend solids are found to be around 35 NTU and 20 mg L-1 respectively depending on the intensity of the rainfall event and on the distance from the shoreline. Moreover the recovery of water quality after the rain event is reached after two or three days.

Impact of rainfall intensity on the transport of two herbicides in undisturbed grassed filter strip soil cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pot, V.; Šimůnek, J.; Benoit, P.; Coquet, Y.; Yra, A.; Martínez-Cordón, M.-J.

2005-12-01

Two series of displacement experiments with isoproturon and metribuzin herbicides were performed on two undisturbed grassed filter strip soil cores, under unsaturated steady-state flow conditions. Several rainfall intensities (0.070, 0.147, 0.161, 0.308 and 0.326 cm h - 1 ) were used. A water tracer (bromide) was simultaneously injected in each displacement experiment. A descriptive analysis of experimental breakthrough curves of bromide and herbicides combined with a modeling analysis showed an impact of rainfall intensity on the solute transport. Two contrasting physical non-equilibrium transport processes occurred. Multiple (three) porosity domains contributed to flow at the highest rainfall intensities, including preferential flow through macropore pathways. Macropores were not active any longer at intermediate and lowest velocities, and the observed preferential transport was described using dual-porosity-type models with a zero or low flow in the matrix domain. Chemical non-equilibrium transport of herbicides was found at all rainfall intensities. Significantly higher estimated values of degradation rate parameters as compared to batch data were correlated with the degree of non-equilibrium sorption. Experimental breakthrough curves were analyzed using different physical and chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium transport models: convective-dispersive model (CDE), dual-porosity model (MIM), dual-permeability model (DP), triple-porosity, dual permeability model (DP-MIM); each combined with both chemical instantaneous and kinetic sorption.

Changes in Intense Precipitation Events in West Africa and the central U.S. under Global Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward

The purpose of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the physical processes and large-scale connectivity of changes in intense precipitation events (high rainfall rates) under global warming in West Africa and the central U.S., including relationships with low-frequency modes of variability. This is in response to the requested subject area #2 “simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate … to better quantify the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events under climate change and elucidate the role of low frequency climate variability in modulating extremes.” We will use a regional climate model and emphasize an understandingmore » of the physical processes that lead to an intensification of rainfall. The project objectives are as follows: 1. Understand the processes responsible for simulated changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency over West Africa and the Central U.S. associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming 2. Understand the relationship between changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency, which generally occur on regional space scales, and the larger-scale global warming signal by considering modifications of low-frequency modes of variability. 3. Relate changes simulated on regional space scales to global-scale theories of how and why atmospheric moisture levels and rainfall should change as climate warms.« less

Drought analysis in the Tons River Basin, India during 1969-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Gautam, Randhir; Kahya, Ercan

2018-05-01

The primary focus of this study is the analysis of droughts in the Tons River Basin during the period 1969-2008. Precipitation data observed at four gauging stations are used to identify drought over the study area. The event of drought is derived from the standardized precipitation index (SPI) on a 3-month scale. Our results indicated that severe drought occurred in the Allahabad, Rewa, and Satna stations in the years 1973 and 1979. The droughts in this region had occurred mainly due to erratic behavior in monsoons, especially due to long breaks between monsoons. During the drought years, the deficiency of the annual rainfall in the analysis of annual rainfall departure had varied from -26% in 1976 to -60% in 1973 at Allahabad station in the basin. The maximum deficiency of annual and seasonal rainfall recorded in the basin is 60%. The maximum seasonal rainfall departure observed in the basin is in the order of -60% at Allahabad station in 1973, while maximum annual rainfall departure had been recorded as -60% during 1979 at the Satna station. Extreme dry events ( z score <-2) were detected during July, August, and September. Moreover, severe dry events were observed in August, September, and October. The drought conditions in the Tons River Basin are dominantly driven by total rainfall throughout the period between June and November.

Impacts of Different Soil Texture and Organic Content on Hydrological Performance of Bioretention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gülbaz, Sezar; Melek Kazezyilmaz Alhan, Cevza

2015-04-01

The land development and increase in urbanization in a watershed has adverse effects such as flooding and water pollution on both surface water and groundwater resources. Low Impact Development (LID) Best Management Practices (BMPs) such as bioretentions, vegetated rooftops, rain barrels, vegetative swales and permeable pavements have been implemented in order to diminish adverse effects of urbanization. LID-BMP is a land planning method which is used to manage storm water runoff by reducing peak flows as well as simultaneously improving water quality. The aim of this study is developing a functional experimental setup called as Rainfall-Watershed-Bioretention (RWB) System in order to investigate and quantify the hydrological performance of bioretention. RWB System is constructed on the Istanbul University Campus and includes an artificial rainfall system, which allows for variable rainfall intensity, drainage area, which has controllable size and slope, and bioretention columns with different soil ratios. Four bioretention columns with different soil textures and organic content are constructed in order to investigate their effects on water quantity. Using RWB System, the runoff volume, hydrograph, peak flow rate and delay in peak time at the exit of bioretention columns may be quantified under various rainfalls in order to understand the role of soil types used in bioretention columns and rainfall intensities. The data obtained from several experiments conducted in RWB System are employed in establishing a relation among rainfall, surface runoff and flow reduction after bioretention. Moreover, the results are supported by mathematical models in order to explain the physical mechanism of bioretention. Following conclusions are reached based on the analyses carried out in this study: i) Results show that different local soil types in bioretention implementation affect surface runoff and peak flow considerably. ii) Rainfall intensity and duration affect peak flow reduction and arrival time and shape of the hydrograph. iii) A mathematical representation of the relation among the rainfall, surface runoff over the watershed and outflow from the bioretention is developed by incorporating kinematic wave equation into the modified Green-Ampt Method. The rainfall intensity in modified Green-Ampt method is represented by the inflow per unit surface area of bioretention which may be obtained from kinematic wave solution using the measured rainfall data. Variable rainfall cases may be taken into account by using the modified Green-Ampt method. Thus, employing the modified Green-Ampt method helps significantly in understanding and explaining the hydrological mechanism of a bioretention cell where the Darcy law or the classical Green-Ampt method is inadequate which works under constant rainfall intensities. Consequently, the rainfall is directly related with the outflow through the bioretention. This study discusses only the water quantity of bioretention.

The use of distributed hydrological models for the Gard 2002 flash flood event: Analysis of associated hydrological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braud, Isabelle; Roux, Hélène; Anquetin, Sandrine; Maubourguet, Marie-Madeleine; Manus, Claire; Viallet, Pierre; Dartus, Denis

2010-11-01

SummaryThis paper presents a detailed analysis of the September 8-9, 2002 flash flood event in the Gard region (southern France) using two distributed hydrological models: CVN built within the LIQUID® hydrological platform and MARINE. The models differ in terms of spatial discretization, infiltration and water redistribution representation, and river flow transfer. MARINE can also account for subsurface lateral flow. Both models are set up using the same available information, namely a DEM and a pedology map. They are forced with high resolution radar rainfall data over a set of 18 sub-catchments ranging from 2.5 to 99 km2 and are run without calibration. To begin with, models simulations are assessed against post field estimates of the time of peak and the maximum peak discharge showing a fair agreement for both models. The results are then discussed in terms of flow dynamics, runoff coefficients and soil saturation dynamics. The contribution of the subsurface lateral flow is also quantified using the MARINE model. This analysis highlights that rainfall remains the first controlling factor of flash flood dynamics. High rainfall peak intensities are very influential of the maximum peak discharge for both models, but especially for the CVN model which has a simplified overland flow transfer. The river bed roughness also influences the peak intensity and time. Soil spatial representation is shown to have a significant role on runoff coefficients and on the spatial variability of saturation dynamics. Simulated soil saturation is found to be strongly related with soil depth and initial storage deficit maps, due to a full saturation of most of the area at the end of the event. When activated, the signature of subsurface lateral flow is also visible in the spatial patterns of soil saturation with higher values concentrating along the river network. However, the data currently available do not allow the assessment of both patterns. The paper concludes with a set of recommendations for enhancing field observations in order to progress in process understanding and gather a larger set of data to improve the realism of distributed models.

Using rainfall simulations to understand the relationship between precipitation, soil crust and infiltration in four agricultural soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angulo-Martinez, Marta; Alastrué, Juan; Moret-Fernández, David; Beguería, Santiago; López, Mariví; Navas, Ana

2017-04-01

Rainfall simulation experiments were carried out in order to study soil crust formation and its relation with soil infiltration parameters—sorptivity (S) and hydraulic conductivity (K)—on four common agricultural soils with contrasted properties; namely, Cambisol, Gypsisol, Solonchak, and Solonetz. Three different rainfall simulations, replicated three times each of them, were performed over the soils. Prior to rainfall simulations all soils were mechanically tilled with a rototiller to create similar soil surface conditions and homogeneous soils. Rainfall simulation parameters were monitored in real time by a Thies Laser Precipitation Monitor, allowing a complete characterization of simulated rainfall microphysics (drop size and velocity distributions) and integrated variables (accumulated rainfall, intensity and kinetic energy). Once soils dried after the simulations, soil penetration resistance was measured and soil hydraulic parameters, S and K, were estimated using the disc infiltrometry technique. There was little variation in rainfall parameters among simulations. Mean intensity and mean median diameter (D50) varied in simulations 1 ( 0.5 bar), 2 ( 0.8 bar) and 3 ( 1.2 bar) from 26.5 mm h-1 and 0.43 mm (s1) to 40.5 mm h-1 and 0.54 mm (s2) and 41.1 mm h-1 and 0.56 mm for (s3), respectively. Crust formation by soil was explained by D50 and subsequently by the total precipitation amount and the percentage of silt and clay in soil, being Cambisol and Gypsisol the soils that showed more increase in penetration resistance by simulation. All soils showed similar S values by simulations which were explained by rainfall intensity. Different patterns of K were shown by the four soils, which were explained by the combined effect of D50 and intensity, together with soil physico-chemical properties. This study highlights the importance of monitoring all precipitation parameters to determine their effect on different soil processes.

Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wiel, K.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Sebastian, A.; Singh, R.; Arrighi, J.; Otto, F. E. L.; Haustein, K.; Li, S.; Vecchi, G.; Cullen, H. M.

2017-12-01

During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation over Houston and the surrounding area, particularly on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. Using observational datasets and high-resolution global climate model experiments we investigate the return period of this event and to what extent anthropogenic climate change influenced the likelihood and intensity of this type of events. The event definition for the attribution is set by the main impact, flooding in the city of Houston. Most rivers crested on August 28 or 29, driven by intensive rainfall on August 26-28. We therefore use the annual maximum of three-day average precipitation as the event definition. Station data (GHCN-D) and a gridded precipitation product (CPC unified analysis) are used to find the return period of the event and changes in the observed record. To attribute changes to anthropogenic climate change we use time-slice experiments from two high-resolution global climate models (EC-Earth 2.3 and GFDL HiFLOR, both integrated at approximately 25 km). A regional model (HadRM3P) was rejected because of unrealistic modelled extremes. Finally we put the attribution results in context, given local vulnerability and exposure.

A Web-based Data Intensive Visualization of Real-time River Drainage Network Response to Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.

2012-04-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to and visualization of flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, and other flood-related data for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS streams rainfall data from NEXRAD radar, and provides three interfaces including animation for rainfall intensity, daily rainfall totals and rainfall accumulations for past 14 days for Iowa. A real-time interactive visualization interface is developed using past rainfall intensity data. The interface creates community-based rainfall products on-demand using watershed boundaries of each community as a mask. Each individual rainfall pixel is tracked in the interface along the drainage network, and the ones drains to same pixel location are accumulated. The interface loads recent rainfall data in five minute intervals that are combined with current values. Latest web technologies are utilized for the development of the interface including HTML 5 Canvas, and JavaScript. The performance of the interface is optimized to run smoothly on modern web browsers. The interface controls allow users to change internal parameters of the system, and operation conditions of the animation. The interface will help communities understand the effects of rainfall on water transport in stream and river networks and make better-informed decisions regarding the threat of floods. This presentation provides an overview of a unique visualization interface and discusses future plans for real-time dynamic presentations of streamflow forecasting.

Problems and Prospects of SWAT Model Application on an Arid/Semi-Arid Watershed in Arizona

EPA Science Inventory

In arid/semi-arid regions, precipitation mainly occurs during two periods: long-duration, low-intensity rainfall in winter; and short-duration, high-intensity rainfall in summer. Watersheds in arid/semi-arid regions often release water almost immediately after a storm due to spa...

Simulation of Tornado over Brahmanbaria on 22 March 2013 using Doppler Weather Radar and WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, M. K.; Chowdhury, M.; Das, S.

2013-12-01

A tornado accompanied with thunderstorm, rainfall and hailstorm affected Brahmanbaria of Bangladesh in the afternoon of 22 March 2013. The tornadic storms are studied based on field survey, ground and radar observations. Low level moisture influx by southerly flow from the Bay of Bengal coupled with upper level westerly jet stream causing intense instability and shear in the wind fields triggered a series of storms for the day. The exact time and locations of the storms are investigated by using the Agartala and Cox's Bazar Doppler Weather Radar (DWR). Subsequently, the storms are simulated by using the WRF-ARW model at 1 km horizontal resolution based on 6 hourly analyses and boundary conditions of NCEP-FNL. Among the typical characteristics of the storms, the CAPE, surface wind speed, flow patterns, T-Φ gram, rainfall, sea level pressure, vorticity and vertical velocity are studied. Results show that while there are differences of 2-3 hours between the observed and simulated time of the storms, the distances between observed and simulated locations of the storms are several tens of kilometers. The maximum CAPE was generally above 2400 J kg-1 in the case. The maximum intensity of surface wind speed simulated by the model was only 38 m sec-1. This seems to be underestimated. The highest vertical velocity (updraft) simulated by the model was 250 m sec-1 around 800-950 hPa. The updraft reached up to 150 hPa. It seems that the funnel vortex reached the ground, and might have passed some places a few meters above the surface. According to the Fujita Pearson scale, this tornado can be classified as F-2 with estimated wind speed of 50-70 ms-1. Keywords: Tornado, DWR, NCEP-FNL, T-Φ gram, CAPE.

Comparisons of Rain Estimates from Ground Radar and Satellite Over Mountainous Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Xin; Kidd, Chris; Tao, Jing; Barros, Ana

2016-01-01

A high-resolution rainfall product merging surface radar and an enhanced gauge network is used as a reference to examine two operational surface radar rainfall products over mountain areas. The two operational rainfall products include radar-only and conventional-gauge-corrected radar rainfall products. Statistics of rain occurrence and rain amount including their geographical, seasonal, and diurnal variations are examined using 3-year data. It is found that the three surface radar rainfall products in general agree well with one another over mountainous regions in terms of horizontal mean distributions of rain occurrence and rain amount. Frequency of rain occurrence and fraction of rain amount also indicate similar distribution patterns as a function of rain intensity. The diurnal signals of precipitation over mountain ridges are well captured and joint distributions of coincident raining samples indicate reasonable correlations during both summer and winter. Factors including undetected low-level precipitation, limited availability of gauges for correcting the Z-R relationship over the mountains, and radar beam blocking by mountains are clearly noticed in the two conventional radar rainfall products. Both radar-only and conventional-gauge-corrected radar rainfall products underestimate the rain occurrence and fraction of rain amount at intermediate and heavy rain intensities. Comparison of PR and TMI against a surface radar-only rainfall product indicates that the PR performs equally well with the high-resolution radar-only rainfall product over complex terrains at intermediate and heavy rain intensities during the summer and winter. TMI, on the other hand, requires improvement to retrieve wintertime precipitation over mountain areas.

Study on the response of unsaturated soil slope based on the effects of rainfall intensity and slope angle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Mohd Ashraf Mohamad; Hamzah, Nur Hasliza

2017-07-01

Rainfall has been considered as the major cause of the slope failure. The mechanism leading to slope failures included the infiltration process, surface runoff, volumetric water content and pore-water pressure of the soil. This paper describes a study in which simulated rainfall events were used with 2-dimensional soil column to study the response of unsaturated soil behavior based on different slope angle. The 2-dimensional soil column is used in order to demonstrate the mechanism of the slope failure. These unsaturated soil were tested with four different slope (15°, 25°, 35° and 45°) and subjected to three different rainfall intensities (maximum, mean and minimum). The following key results were obtained: (1) the stability of unsaturated soil decrease as the rainwater infiltrates into the soil. Soil that initially in unsaturated state will start to reach saturated state when rainwater seeps into the soil. Infiltration of rainwater will reduce the matric suction in the soil. Matric suction acts in controlling soil shear strength. Reduction in matric suction affects the decrease in effective normal stress, which in turn diminishes the available shear strength to a point where equilibrium can no longer be sustained in the slope. (2) The infiltration rate of rainwater decreases while surface runoff increase when the soil nearly achieve saturated state. These situations cause the soil erosion and lead to slope failure. (3) The steepness of the soil is not a major factor but also contribute to slope failures. For steep slopes, rainwater that fall on the soil surface will become surface runoff within a short time compare to the water that infiltrate into the soil. While for gentle slopes, water that becomes surface runoff will move slowly and these increase the water that infiltrate into the soil.

On the occurrence of rainstorm damage based on home insurance and weather data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spekkers, M. H.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

2014-08-01

Rainstorm damage caused by malfunctioning of urban drainage systems and water intrusion due to defects in the building envelope can be considerable. Little research on this topic focused on the collection of damage data, the understanding of damage mechanisms and the deepening of data analysis methods. In this paper, the relative contribution of different failure mechanisms to the occurrence of rainstorm damage are investigated, as well as the extent to which these mechanisms relate to weather variables. For a case study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, a property level home insurance database of around 3100 water-related damage claims was analysed. Records include comprehensive transcripts of communication between insurer, insured and damage assessment experts, which allowed claims to be classified according to their actual damage cause. Results show that roof and wall leakage is the most frequent failure mechanism causing precipitation-related claims, followed by blocked roof gutters, melting snow and sewer flooding. Claims related to sewer flooding were less present in the data, but are associated with significantly larger claim sizes than claims in the majority class, i.e. roof and wall leakages. Rare events logistic regression analysis revealed that maximum rainfall intensity and rainfall volume are significant predictors for the occurrence probability of precipitation-related claims. Moreover, it was found that claims associated with rainfall intensities smaller than 7-8 mm in a 60 min window are mainly related to failures processes in the private domain, such as roof and wall leakages. For rainfall events that exceed the 7-8 mm h-1 threshold, failure of systems in the public domain, such as sewer systems, start to contribute considerably to the overall occurrence probability of claims. The communication transcripts, however, lacked information to be conclusive about to extent to which sewer-related claims were caused by overloading of sewer systems or failure of system components.

On the occurrence of rainstorm damage based on home insurance and weather data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spekkers, M. H.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

2015-02-01

Rainstorm damage caused by the malfunction of urban drainage systems and water intrusion due to defects in the building envelope can be considerable. Little research on this topic focused on the collection of damage data, the understanding of damage mechanisms and the deepening of data analysis methods. In this paper, the relative contribution of different failure mechanisms to the occurrence of rainstorm damage is investigated, as well as the extent to which these mechanisms relate to weather variables. For a case study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, a property level home insurance database of around 3100 water-related damage claims was analysed. The records include comprehensive transcripts of communication between insurer, insured and damage assessment experts, which allowed claims to be classified according to their actual damage cause. The results show that roof and wall leakage is the most frequent failure mechanism causing precipitation-related claims, followed by blocked roof gutters, melting snow and sewer flooding. Claims related to sewer flooding were less present in the data, but are associated with significantly larger claim sizes than claims in the majority class, i.e. roof and wall leakages. Rare events logistic regression analysis revealed that maximum rainfall intensity and rainfall volume are significant predictors for the occurrence probability of precipitation-related claims. Moreover, it was found that claims associated with rainfall intensities smaller than 7-8 mm in a 60-min window are mainly related to failure processes in the private domain, such as roof and wall leakages. For rainfall events that exceed the 7-8 mm h-1 threshold, the failure of systems in the public domain, such as sewer systems, start to contribute considerably to the overall occurrence probability of claims. The communication transcripts, however, lacked information to be conclusive about to which extent sewer-related claims were caused by overloading of sewer systems or failure of system components.

Landslide triggering by rain infiltration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, Richard M.

2000-01-01

Landsliding in response to rainfall involves physical processes that operate on disparate timescales. Relationships between these timescales guide development of a mathematical model that uses reduced forms of Richards equation to evaluate effects of rainfall infiltration on landslide occurrence, timing, depth, and acceleration in diverse situations. The longest pertinent timescale is A/D0, where D0 is the maximum hydraulic diffusivity of the soil and A is the catchment area that potentially affects groundwater pressures at a prospective landslide slip surface location with areal coordinates x, y and depth H. Times greater than A/D0 are necessary for establishment of steady background water pressures that develop at (x, y, H) in response to rainfall averaged over periods that commonly range from days to many decades. These steady groundwater pressures influence the propensity for landsliding at (x, y, H), but they do not trigger slope failure. Failure results from rainfall over a typically shorter timescale H2/D0 associated with transient pore pressure transmission during and following storms. Commonly, this timescale ranges from minutes to months. The shortest timescale affecting landslide responses to rainfall is √(H/g), where g is the magnitude of gravitational acceleration. Postfailure landslide motion occurs on this timescale, which indicates that the thinnest landslides accelerate most quickly if all other factors are constant. Effects of hydrologic processes on landslide processes across these diverse timescales are encapsulated by a response function, R(t*) = √(t*/π) exp (-1/t*) - erfc (1/√t*), which depends only on normalized time, t*. Use of R(t*) in conjunction with topographic data, rainfall intensity and duration information, an infinite-slope failure criterion, and Newton's second law predicts the timing, depth, and acceleration of rainfall-triggered landslides. Data from contrasting landslides that exhibit rapid, shallow motion and slow, deep-seated motion corroborate these predictions.

Long term high resolution rainfall runoff observations for improved water balance uncertainty and database QA-QC in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bitew, M. M.; Goodrich, D. C.; Demaria, E.; Heilman, P.; Kautz, M. A.

2017-12-01

Walnut Gulch is a semi-arid environment experimental watershed and Long Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) site managed by USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center for which high-resolution long-term hydro-climatic data are available across its 150 km2 drainage area. In this study, we present the analysis of 50 years of continuous hourly rainfall data to evaluate runoff control and generation processes for improving the QA-QC plans of Walnut Gulch to create high-quality data set that is critical for reducing water balance uncertainties. Multiple linear regression models were developed to relate rainfall properties, runoff characteristics and watershed properties. The rainfall properties were summarized to event based total depth, maximum intensity, duration, the location of the storm center with respect to the outlet, and storm size normalized to watershed area. We evaluated the interaction between the runoff and rainfall and runoff as antecedent moisture condition (AMC), antecedent runoff condition (ARC) and, runoff depth and duration for each rainfall events. We summarized each of the watershed properties such as contributing area, slope, shape, channel length, stream density, channel flow area, and percent of the area of retention stock ponds for each of the nested catchments in Walnut Gulch. The evaluation of the model using basic and categorical statistics showed good predictive skill throughout the watersheds. The model produced correlation coefficients ranging from 0.4-0.94, Nash efficiency coefficients up to 0.77, and Kling-Gupta coefficients ranging from 0.4 to 0.98. The model predicted 92% of all runoff generations and 98% of no-runoff across all sub-watersheds in Walnut Gulch. The regression model also indicated good potential to complement the QA-QC procedures in place for Walnut Gulch dataset publications developed over the years since the 1960s through identification of inconsistencies in rainfall and runoff relations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Eugene; Pierce, Julia; Mahat, Vinod

This project is a part of the Regional Resiliency Assessment Program, led by the Department of Homeland Security, to address flooding hazards of regional significance for Portland, Maine. The pilot study was performed by Argonne National Laboratory to identify differences in spatial rainfall distributions between the radar-derived and rain-gauge rainfall datasets and to evaluate their impacts on urban flooding. The flooding impact analysis utilized a high-resolution 2-dimensional (2-D) hydrodynamic model (15 ft by 15 ft) incorporating the buildings, streets, stream channels, hydraulic structures, an existing city storm drain system, and assuming a storm surge along the coast coincident with amore » heavy rainfall event. Two historical storm events from April 16, 2007, and September 29, 2015, were selected for evaluation. The radar-derived rainfall data at a 200-m resolution provide spatially-varied rainfall patterns with a wide range of intensities for each event. The resultant maximum flood depth using data from a single rain gauge within the study area could be off (either under- or over-estimated) by more than 10% in the 2007 storm and more than 60% in the 2015 storm compared to the radar-derived rainfall data. The model results also suggest that the inundation area with a flow depth at or greater than 0.5 ft could reach 11% (2007 storm) and 17% (2015 storm) of the total study area, respectively. The lowland areas within the neighborhoods of North Deering, East Deering, East and West Baysides and northeastern Parkside, appear to be more vulnerable to the flood hazard in both storm events. The high-resolution 2-D hydrodynamic model with high-resolution radar-derived rainfall data provides an excellent tool for detailed urban flood analysis and vulnerability assessment. The model developed in this study could be potentially used to evaluate any proposed mitigation measures and optimize their effects in the future for Portland, ME.« less

How extreme was the October 2015 flood in the Carolinas? An assessment of flood frequency analysis and distribution tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, R. C.; Samadi, S. Z.; Meadows, M. E.

2018-07-01

This paper examines the frequency, distribution tails, and peak-over-threshold (POT) of extreme floods through analysis that centers on the October 2015 flooding in North Carolina (NC) and South Carolina (SC), United States (US). The most striking features of the October 2015 flooding were a short time to peak (Tp) and a multi-hour continuous flood peak which caused intensive and widespread damages to human lives, properties, and infrastructure. The 2015 flooding was produced by a sequence of intense rainfall events which originated from category 4 hurricane Joaquin over a period of four days. Here, the probability distribution and distribution parameters (i.e., location, scale, and shape) of floods were investigated by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of the annual maximum flood (AMF) and POT with light- to heavy- theoretical tails: Fréchet, Pareto, Gumbel, Weibull, Beta, and Exponential. Specifically, four sets of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauging data from the central Carolinas with record lengths from approximately 65-125 years were used. Analysis suggests that heavier-tailed distributions are in better agreement with the POT and somewhat AMF data than more often used exponential (light) tailed probability distributions. Further, the threshold selection and record length affect the heaviness of the tail and fluctuations of the parent distributions. The shape parameter and its evolution in the period of record play a critical and poorly understood role in determining the scaling of flood response to intense rainfall.

Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

2015-02-01

In this study, two series of data for extreme rainfall events are generated based on Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Methods, derived from 102 rain-gauge stations in Peninsular from 1982-2012. To determine the optimal threshold for each station, several requirements must be satisfied and Adapted Hill estimator is employed for this purpose. A semi-parametric bootstrap is then used to estimate the mean square error (MSE) of the estimator at each threshold and the optimal threshold is selected based on the smallest MSE. The mean annual frequency is also checked to ensure that it lies in the range of one to five and the resulting data is also de-clustered to ensure independence. The two data series are then fitted to Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions for annual maximum and partial duration series, respectively. The parameter estimation methods used are the Maximum Likelihood and the L-moment methods. Two goodness of fit tests are then used to evaluate the best-fitted distribution. The results showed that the Partial Duration series with Generalized Pareto distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation provides the best representation for extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia for majority of the stations studied. Based on these findings, several return values are also derived and spatial mapping are constructed to identify the distribution characteristic of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia.

An investigation of wash-off controlling parameters at urban and commercial monitoring sites.

PubMed

Berretta, C; Gnecco, I; Lanza, L G; La Barbera, P

2007-01-01

The relationship between the parameters of the wash-off function and the controlling hydrologic variables are investigated in this paper, assuming that the pollutant generation process basically depends on the watershed rainfall-runoff response characteristics. Data collected during an intense monitoring program carried out by the Department of Environmental Engineering of the University of Genova (Italy) within a residential area, an auto dismantler facility, a tourism terminal and a urban waste truck depot are used to this aim. The observed runoff events are classified into different TSS mass delivery processes and the occurrence of the first flush phenomenon is also investigated. The correlation between the mathematical parameters describing the exponential process and the hydrological parameters of the corresponding rainfall-runoff event is analysed: runoff parameters and in particular the maximum flow discharge over the time of concentration of the drainage network are proposed as the controlling factor for the total mass of pollutant that is made available for wash-off during each runoff event.

Rainfall characteristics associated to the triggering of fast- and slow-moving landslides - a comparison between the South French Alps and Lower Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remaitre, Alexandre; Wallner, Stefan; Promper, Catrin; Glade, Thomas; Malet, Jean-Philippe

2013-04-01

Rainfall is worldwide a recognized trigger of landslides. Numerous studies were conducted in order to define the relationships between the precipitations and the triggering or the reactivation of landslides. Hydrological triggering of landslides can be divided in three general types: (1) development of local perched water tables in the subsoil leading to shallow slope instabilities and possible gravitational flows, (2) long-lasting rise in permanent water tables leading to more deep-seated slope instabilities, and (3) intense runoff causing channel-bed erosion and debris flows. Types (1) and (3) are usually observed during high rainfall intensities (hourly and daily rainfall) associated to heavy storms; type (2) is usually observed through increasing water content in the subsoil due to antecedent rainfalls (weekly or monthly rainfall) and/or massive snowmelt. Many investigations have been carried out to determine the amount of precipitation needed to trigger slopes failures. For rainfall-induced landslides a threshold may be define the rainfall, soil moisture or hydrological conditions that, when reached or exceeded, are likely to trigger landslides. Usually rainfall thresholds can be defined on physical process-based or conceptual models or empirical, historical and statistical bases. Nevertheless, both the large variety of landslides and to the extreme variety of climatic conditions leading to the triggering or the reactivation of a landslide lead to a regional definition of relationships between landslide occurrence and associated climatic conditions. The purpose of this case study is to analyze the relationships between the triggering of three types of landslides, debris flows, shallow landslides and deep-seated mudslides, and different patterns of rainfall in two study sites with different physiographic and climatic characteristics: the Barcelonnette basin in the South French Alps and the Waidhofen an der Ybbs area in Lower Austria. For this purpose, we exploit for the two test sites a landslide catalogue and rainfall data series to define a typology of rainfall induced-landslides for the relevant landslide types. Results from an analysis of the rainfall conditions associated to these events at different time scale (yearly, monthly, daily and hourly) show a clear distinction between these landslides. Slow-moving landslides are often associated to persistent rainstorms with low intensities during long periods causing the saturation of the soils while fast-moving landslides are usually triggered by short rainfall events with high intensities that occur in summer.

Influence of high resolution rainfall data on the hydrological response of urban flat catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristiano, Elena; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van de Giesen, Nick

2016-04-01

In the last decades, cities have become more and more urbanized and population density in urban areas is increased. At the same time, due to the climate changes, rainfall events present higher intensity and shorter duration than in the past. The increase of imperviousness degree, due to urbanization, combined with short and intense rainfall events, determinates a fast hydrological response of the urban catchment and in some cases it can lead to flooding. Urban runoff processes are sensitive to rainfall spatial and temporal variability and, for this reason, high resolution rainfall data are required as input for the hydrological model. A better knowledge of the hydrological response of system can help to prevent damages caused by flooding. This study aims to evaluate the sensitivity of urban hydrological response to spatial and temporal rainfall variability in urban areas, focusing especially on understanding the hydrological behaviour in lowland areas. In flat systems, during intense rainfall events, the flow in the sewer network can be pressurized and it can change direction, depending on the setting of pumping stations and CSOs (combined sewer overflow). In many cases these systems are also looped and it means that the water can follow different paths, depending on the pipe filling process. For these reasons, hydrological response of flat and looped catchments is particularly complex and it can be difficult characterize and predict it. A new dual polarimetric X-band weather radar, able to measure rainfall with temporal resolution of 1 min and spatial resolution of 100mX100m, was recently installed in the city of Rotterdam (NL). With this instrument, high resolution rainfall data were measured and used, in this work, as input for the hydrodynamic model. High detailed, semi-distributed hydrodynamic models of some districts of Rotterdam were used to investigate the hydrological response of flat catchments to high resolution rainfall data. In particular, the hydrological response of some subcatchments of the district of Kralingen was studied. Rainfall data were combined with level and discharge measurements at the pumping station that connects the sewer system with the waste water treatment plane. Using this data it was possible to study the water balance and to have a better idea of the amount of water that leave the system during a specific rainfall events. Results show that the hydrological response of flat and looped catchments is sensitive to spatial and temporal rainfall variability and it can be strongly influenced by rainfall event characteristics, such as intensity, velocity and intermittency of the storm.

Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Robbie; Manville, Vern; Peakall, Jeff; Froude, Melanie J.; Odbert, Henry M.

2017-12-01

Rain-triggered lahars are a significant secondary hydrological and geomorphic hazard at volcanoes where unconsolidated pyroclastic material produced by explosive eruptions is exposed to intense rainfall, often occurring for years to decades after the initial eruptive activity. Previous studies have shown that secondary lahar initiation is a function of rainfall parameters, source material characteristics and time since eruptive activity. In this study, probabilistic rain-triggered lahar forecasting models are developed using the lahar occurrence and rainfall record of the Belham River valley at the Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat, collected between April 2010 and April 2012. In addition to the use of peak rainfall intensity (PRI) as a base forecasting parameter, considerations for the effects of rainfall seasonality and catchment evolution upon the initiation of rain-triggered lahars and the predictability of lahar generation are also incorporated into these models. Lahar probability increases with peak 1 h rainfall intensity throughout the 2-year dataset and is higher under given rainfall conditions in year 1 than year 2. The probability of lahars is also enhanced during the wet season, when large-scale synoptic weather systems (including tropical cyclones) are more common and antecedent rainfall and thus levels of deposit saturation are typically increased. The incorporation of antecedent conditions and catchment evolution into logistic-regression-based rain-triggered lahar probability estimation models is shown to enhance model performance and displays the potential for successful real-time prediction of lahars, even in areas featuring strongly seasonal climates and temporal catchment recovery.

A field evaluation of a satellite microwave rainfall sensor network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caridi, Andrea; Caviglia, Daniele D.; Colli, Matteo; Delucchi, Alessandro; Federici, Bianca; Lanza, Luca G.; Pastorino, Matteo; Randazzo, Andrea; Sguerso, Domenico

2017-04-01

An innovative environmental monitoring system - Smart Rainfall System (SRS) - that estimates rainfall in real-time by means of the analysis of the attenuation of satellite signals (DVB-S in the microwave Ku band) is presented. Such a system consists in a set of peripheral microwave sensors placed on the field of interest, and connected to a central processing and analysis node. It has been developed jointly by the University of Genoa, with its departments DITEN and DICCA and the Genoese SME "Darts Engineering Srl". This work discusses the rainfall intensity measurements accuracy and sensitivity performance of SRS, based on preliminary results from a field comparison experiment at the urban scale. The test-bed is composed by a set of preliminary measurement sites established from Autumn 2016 in the Genoa (Italy) municipality and the data collected from the sensors during a selection of rainfall events is studied. The availability of point-scale rainfall intensity measurements made by traditional tipping-bucket rain gauges and radar areal observations allows a comparative analysis of the SRS performance. The calibration of the reference rain gauges has been carried out at the laboratories of DICCA using a rainfall simulator and the measurements have been processed taking advantage of advanced algorithms to reduce counting errors. The experimental set-up allows a fine tuning of the retrieval algorithm and a full characterization of the accuracy of the rainfall intensity estimates from the microwave signal attenuation as a function of different precipitation regimes.

Prediction of Rainfall-Induced Landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadim, F.; Sandersen, F.

2009-12-01

Rainfall-induced landslides can be triggered by two main mechanisms: shear failure due to build-up of pore water pressure and erosion by surface water runoff when flow velocity exceeds a critical value. Field measurements indicate that, in the initial phase, the slip surface of a landslide often occurs along the top of a relatively impermeable layer located at some depth within the soil profile, e.g. at the contact with a shallow underlying bedrock or parent rock. The shear strength along this surface and hence the stability of the slope is governed by the pore water pressure. The pore pressure is in turn controlled by water seepage through the slope, either from infiltrated rain, or from groundwater that follows bedrock joints and soil layers with high permeability. When the infiltration rate of the underlying layer is too low for further downward penetration of water or when a wetting front is produced, pore water pressure builds up, reducing the soil shear strength. During high intensity rainfall, surface water runoff will exert shear stresses on the bed material. De-pending on the grain size distribution and specific gravity of the material, erosion might occur when the flow velocity exceeds a critical value. As erosion progresses and sediment concentration increases, the flow regime may become unstable with heavy erosion at high flow velocity locations triggering a debris flow. In many cases, previous landslides along steep gully walls have fed an abundance of loose soil material into the gullies. Landslides along gully walls that obstruct the water transport may also trigger debris flows when the landslide-dam collapses, creating a surge downstream. Both the long-duration (1 or more days) and short-duration precipitation (of the order of 1 hour) are significant in the triggering of shallow landslides, since the critical short-duration rainfall intensity reduces as the antecedent accumulated rainfall increases. Experiences in Norway indicate that the maxi-mum intensity of rain within a short period of time (1-3 hours) during a storm is most critical for triggering of debris flows. Therefore empirical methods developed for prediction of initiation of debris flows include both long-duration and short-duration rain-fall. More recent research has focused on the spatial distribution of unstable areas and on better spatial resolution of the occurrence of landslide-triggering precipitation events. Spatial distribution can be assessed by analyzing the stability conditions for shallow landslides if reasonable estimates of strength parameters are available. In general, two different approaches may be adopted for the assessment of threshold values for rainfall-induced landslides: empirical methods that are based on past observations and statistical analyses, and numerical analyses that are based on geo-mechanical modelling. The former approach together with very short-term weather forecasting (now-casting) are commonly used in the design of early warning systems for debris flows.

Stemflow in low-density and hedgerow olive orchards in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, Pedro D.; Valente, Fernanda; Pereira, Fernando L.; Abreu, Francisco G.

2015-04-01

Stemflow (Sf) is responsible for a localized water and solute input to soil around tree's trunks, playing an important eco-hydrological role in forest and agricultural ecosystems. Sf was monitored for seven months in 25 Olea europaea L. trees distributed in three orchards managed in two different ways, traditional low-density and super high density hedgerow. The orchards were located in central Portugal in the regions of Santarém (Várzea and Azóia) and Lisboa (Tapada). Seven olive varieties were analysed: Arbequina, Galega, Picual, Maçanilha, Cordovil, Azeiteira, Negrinha and Blanqueta. Measured Sf ranged from 7.5 to 87.2 mm (relative to crown-projected area), corresponding to 1.2 and 16.7% of gross rainfall (Pg). To understand better the variables that affect Sf and to be able to predict its value, linear regression models were fitted to these data. Whenever possible, the linear models were simplified using the backward stepwise algorithm based on the Akaike information criterion. For each tree, multiple linear regressions were adjusted between Sf and the duration, volume and intensity of rainfall episodes and maximum evaporation rate. In the low-density Várzea grove the more relevant explanatory variables were the three rainfall characteristics. In the super high density Azóia orchard only rainfall volume and intensity were considered relevant. In the low-density Tapada's grove all trees had a different sub-model with Pg being the only common variable. To try to explain differences between trees and to improve the quality of the modeling in each orchard, another set of explanatory variables was added: canopy volume, tree and trunk heights and trunk perimeter at the height of the first branches. The variables present in all sub-models were rainfall volume and intensity and the tree and trunk heights. Canopy volume and rainfall duration were also present in the sub-models of the two low-density groves (Tapada and Várzea). The determination coefficient (R2) of all models ranged from 0.5 to 0.76. The size of leaves was also analysed. Although there were significant differences between varieties and between trees of the same variety, they did not seem to affect the amount of Sf generated. Through analysis of bark storage capacity, it was found that older trees, with rough and thick bark, had higher trunk storage capacity and, therefore, originated less Sf. The results confirm the need for considering the contribution of stemflow when trying to correctly assess interception loss in olive orchards. Although the use of simple and general statistical models may be an attractive option, their precision may be small, making direct measurements or conceptual modelling preferable methods.

Thirty-one years of debris-flow observation and monitoring near La Honda, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, G.F.; Wilson, R.C.; Ellen, S.D.; Reid, M.E.; Jayko, A.S.

2007-01-01

From 1975 until 2006,18 intense storms triggered at least 248 debris flows within 10 km2 northwest of the town of La Honda within the Santa Cruz Mountains, California. In addition to mapping debris flows and other types of landslides, studies included soil sampling and geologic mapping, piezometric and tensiometer monitoring, and rainfall measurement and recording. From 1985 until 1995, a system with radio telemetered rain gages and piezometers within the La Honda region was used for issuing six debris-flow warnings within the San Francisco Bay region through the NOAA ALERT system. Depending upon the relative intensity of rainfall during storms, debris flows were generated from deep slumps, shallow slumps, shallow slides in colluvium and shallow slides over bedrock. Analysis shows the storms with abundant antecedent rainfall followed by several days of steady heavy intense rainfall triggered the most abundant debris flows. ?? 2007 millpress.

Summer Leeside Rainfall Maxima over the Island of Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y. F.; Chen, Y. L.

2016-12-01

The Kona area on the leeside in the island of Hawaii has distinctive summer rainfall maxima. The primary physical processes for the summer rainfall maxima in Kona are analyzed by comparing it with the winter rainfall. The annual and diurnal cycles there are investigated by employing the Fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model coupled with the advanced land surface model from June 2004 and February 2010. During the summer, the nocturnal rainfall maximum adjacent to the Kona coast is larger than in winter because of the stronger, moister westerly reversed flow and offshore flow in summer. Comparisons between winter trade-wind days and winter mean show that the leeside Kona rainfall offshore in winter mainly occurs under trade-wind conditions. Moreover, the model results also attest to the impact of moisture content on the Kona leeside rainfall offshore. Comparisons between winter and summer trade-wind days indicate that upslope flows on the Kona slopes are stronger and the moisture content from the westerly reversed flow is higher in summer than in winter. The rainfall maximum on the lower Kona slopes is more pronounced in summer than in winter as a result of enhanced orographic lifting due to stronger upslope flow in the afternoon hours and the moister westerly reversed flow offshore, which merges with the upslope flow inland.

Ten-Year Climatology of Summertime Diurnal Rainfall Rate Over the Conterminous U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matsui, Toshihisa; Mocko, David; Lee, Myong-In; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Suarez, Max J.; Pielke, Roger A., Sr.

2010-01-01

Diurnal cycles of summertime rainfall rates are examined over the conterminous United States, using radar-gauge assimilated hourly rainfall data. As in earlier studies, rainfall diurnal composites show a well-defined region of rainfall propagation over the Great Plains and an afternoon maximum area over the south and eastern portion of the United States. Zonal phase speeds of rainfall in three different small domains are estimated, and rainfall propagation speeds are compared with background zonal wind speeds. Unique rainfall propagation speeds in three different regions can be explained by the evolution of latent-heat theory linked to the convective available potential energy, than by gust-front induced or gravity wave propagation mechanisms.

Fire season and intensity affect shrub recruitment in temperate sclerophyllous woodlands.

PubMed

Knox, K J E; Clarke, P J

2006-10-01

The season in which a fire occurs may regulate plant seedling recruitment because of: (1) the interaction of season and intensity of fire and the temperature requirements for seed release, germination and growth; (2) post-fire rainfall and temperature patterns affecting germination; (3) the interaction of post-fire germination conditions and competition from surrounding vegetation; and (4) the interaction of post-fire germination conditions and seed predators and/or seedling herbivores. This study examined the effects of different fire intensities and fire seasons on the emergence and survival of shrubs representing a range of fire response syndromes from a summer rainfall cool climate region. Replicated experimental burns were conducted in two seasons (spring and autumn) in 2 consecutive years and fuel loads were increased to examine the effects of fire intensity (low intensity and moderate intensity). Post-fire watering treatments partitioned the effects of seasonal temperature from soil moisture. Higher intensity fires resulted in enhanced seedling emergence for hard-seeded species but rarely influenced survival. Spring fires enhanced seedling emergence across all functional groups. Reduced autumn recruitment was related to seasonal temperature inhibiting germination rather than a lack of soil moisture or competition. In Mediterranean-type climate regions, seedling emergence has been related to post-fire rainfall and exposure of seeds to seed predators. We think a similar model may operate in temperate summer rainfall regions where cold-induced dormancy over winter exposes seeds to predators for a longer time and subsequently results in recruitment failure. Our results support the theory that the effect of fire season is more predictable where there are strong seasonal patterns in climate. In this study seasonal temperature rather than rainfall appears to be more influential.

Precipitation interannual variability and predictions for West Africa from the National Multi-Model Ensemble dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiaw, W. M.

2013-12-01

The ability of coupled climate models from the national multi-model ensemble (NMME) dataset to reproduce the basic state and interannual variability of precipitation in West Africa and associated teleconnections is examined. The analysis is for the period 1982-2010 for most of the models, which corresponds to the NMME hindcast period, except for the CFS version 1 (CFSv1) which covers the period 1981-2009. The satellite based CPC African Rainfall Climatology (ARC2) data is used as proxy for observed rainfall and to validate the models. We examine rainfall patterns throughout the year. Models are able to reproduce the north-south migration of precipitation from winter and spring when the area of maximum precipitation is located in Central Africa and the Gulf of Guinea region to the summer when it is in northern Sub-Saharan Africa, and the later return to the south. Models also appropriately place precipitation over the Gulf of Guinea region during the equinoxes in MAM and OND. However, there are considerable differences in the representation of the intensities and locations of the rainfall. Three of the models including the two versions of the NCEP CFS and the NASA models also have a systematic dry (wet) bias over the Sahel (Gulf of Guinea region) during the summer rainfall season, while the others show alternating wet and dry biases across West Africa. All models have spatially averaged values of standard deviation lower than that observed. Models are also able to reproduce to some extent the main features of the precipitation variability maximum, but again with deficiencies in the amplitudes and locations. The areas of highest variability are generally depicted, but there are significant differences among the models, and even between the two versions of the CFS. Teleconnections in the models are investigated by first conducting an EOF in the precipitation anomaly fields and then perform a regression of the first or second EOF time series onto the global SST. Focusing on JAS rainfall season, only the CFSv1 and the NASA models were able to depict the dipole pattern between the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea rainfall. However, none of the models was able to reproduce the observed upward trend of Sahel rainfall in the last decade. The relationship to SST is also examined. The observed influence of tropical north Atlantic SST on the Sahel rainfall is only partially represented even in the CFSv1, while the NASA model inconsistently emphasizes the role of the tropical South Atlantic. A majority of the models show a partial ENSO teleconnection combined with the tropical south Atlantic mode. However, observations indicate that the influence of ENSO on northern Sub-Saharan summer rainfall has been very weak over the past 30 years. Results for MAM, and OND are also presented. The influence of model errors on the predictions of African rainfall is presented. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is employed to correct the model simulations. A new ensemble based on models corrected forecasts is then formed and the results are presented.

Fuzzy neural network for flow estimation in sewer systems during wet weather.

PubMed

Shen, Jun; Shen, Wei; Chang, Jian; Gong, Ning

2006-02-01

Estimation of the water flow from rainfall intensity during storm events is important in hydrology, sewer system control, and environmental protection. The runoff-producing behavior of a sewer system changes from one storm event to another because rainfall loss depends not only on rainfall intensities, but also on the state of the soil and vegetation, the general condition of the climate, and so on. As such, it would be difficult to obtain a precise flowrate estimation without sufficient a priori knowledge of these factors. To establish a model for flow estimation, one can also use statistical methods, such as the neural network STORMNET, software developed at Lyonnaise des Eaux, France, analyzing the relation between rainfall intensity and flowrate data of the known storm events registered in the past for a given sewer system. In this study, the authors propose a fuzzy neural network to estimate the flowrate from rainfall intensity. The fuzzy neural network combines four STORMNETs and fuzzy deduction to better estimate the flowrates. This study's system for flow estimation can be calibrated automatically by using known storm events; no data regarding the physical characteristics of the drainage basins are required. Compared with the neural network STORMNET, this method reduces the mean square error of the flow estimates by approximately 20%. Experimental results are reported herein.

RAINLINK: Retrieval algorithm for rainfall monitoring employing microwave links from a cellular communication network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uijlenhoet, R.; Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Rios Gaona, M. F.

2017-12-01

The basic principle of rainfall estimation using microwave links is as follows. Rainfall attenuates the electromagnetic signals transmitted from one telephone tower to another. By measuring the received power at one end of a microwave link as a function of time, the path-integrated attenuation due to rainfall can be calculated, which can be converted to average rainfall intensities over the length of a link. Microwave links from cellular communication networks have been proposed as a promising new rainfall measurement technique for one decade. They are particularly interesting for those countries where few surface rainfall observations are available. Yet to date no operational (real-time) link-based rainfall products are available. To advance the process towards operational application and upscaling of this technique, there is a need for freely available, user-friendly computer code for microwave link data processing and rainfall mapping. Such software is now available as R package "RAINLINK" on GitHub (https://github.com/overeem11/RAINLINK). It contains a working example to compute link-based 15-min rainfall maps for the entire surface area of The Netherlands for 40 hours from real microwave link data. This is a working example using actual data from an extensive network of commercial microwave links, for the first time, which will allow users to test their own algorithms and compare their results with ours. The package consists of modular functions, which facilitates running only part of the algorithm. The main processings steps are: 1) Preprocessing of link data (initial quality and consistency checks); 2) Wet-dry classification using link data; 3) Reference signal determination; 4) Removal of outliers ; 5) Correction of received signal powers; 6) Computation of mean path-averaged rainfall intensities; 7) Interpolation of rainfall intensities ; 8) Rainfall map visualisation. Some applications of RAINLINK will be shown based on microwave link data from a temperate climate (the Netherlands), and from a subtropical climate (Brazil). We hope that RAINLINK will promote the application of rainfall monitoring using microwave links in poorly gauged regions around the world. We invite researchers to contribute to RAINLINK to make the code more generally applicable to data from different networks and climates.

Reclaimed mineland curve number response to temporal distribution of rainfall

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warner, R.C.; Agouridis, C.T.; Vingralek, P.T.; Fogle, A.W.

2010-01-01

The curve number (CN) method is a common technique to estimate runoff volume, and it is widely used in coal mining operations such as those in the Appalachian region of Kentucky. However, very little CN data are available for watersheds disturbed by surface mining and then reclaimed using traditional techniques. Furthermore, as the CN method does not readily account for variations in infiltration rates due to varying rainfall distributions, the selection of a single CN value to encompass all temporal rainfall distributions could lead engineers to substantially under- or over-size water detention structures used in mining operations or other land uses such as development. Using rainfall and runoff data from a surface coal mine located in the Cumberland Plateau of eastern Kentucky, CNs were computed for conventionally reclaimed lands. The effects of temporal rainfall distributions on CNs was also examined by classifying storms as intense, steady, multi-interval intense, or multi-interval steady. Results indicate that CNs for such reclaimed lands ranged from 62 to 94 with a mean value of 85. Temporal rainfall distributions were also shown to significantly affect CN values with intense storms having significantly higher CNs than multi-interval storms. These results indicate that a period of recovery is present between rainfall bursts of a multi-interval storm that allows depressional storage and infiltration rates to rebound. ?? 2010 American Water Resources Association.

The hydrological behaviour of extensive and intensive green roofs in a dry climate.

PubMed

Razzaghmanesh, M; Beecham, S

2014-11-15

This paper presents the results of a hydrological investigation of four medium scale green roofs that were set up at the University of South Australia. In this study, the potential of green roofs as a source control device was investigated over a 2 year period using four medium size green roof beds comprised of two growth media types and two media depths. During the term of this study, 226 rainfall events were recorded and these were representative of the Adelaide climate. In general, there were no statistically significant differences between the rainfall and runoff parameters for the intensive and extensive beds except for peak attenuation and peak runoff delay, for which higher values were recorded in the intensive beds. Longer dry periods generally resulted in higher retention coefficients and higher retention was also recorded in warmer seasons. The average retention coefficient for intensive systems (89%) was higher than for extensive systems (74%). It was shown that rainfall depth, intensity, duration and also average dry weather period between events can change the retention performance and runoff volume of the green roofs. Comparison of green and simulated conventional roofs indicated that the former were able to mitigate the peak of runoff and could delay the start of runoff. These characteristics are important for most source control measures. The recorded rainfall and runoff data displayed a non-linear relationship. Also, the results indicated that continuous time series modelling would be a more appropriate technique than using peak rainfall intensity methods for green roof design and simulation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mobilization and distribution of lead originating from roof dust and wet deposition in a roof runoff system.

PubMed

Yu, Jianghua; Yu, Haixia; Huang, Xiaogu

2015-12-01

In this research, the mobilization and distribution of lead originating in roof dust and wet deposition were investigated within a roof dust-rooftop-runoff system. The results indicated that lead from roof dust and wet deposition showed different transport dynamics in runoff system and that this process was significantly influenced by the rainfall intensity. Lead present in the roof dust could be easily washed off into the runoff, and nearly 60 % of the total lead content was present in particulate form. Most of the lead from the roof dust was transported during the late period of rainfall; however, the lead concentration was higher for several minutes at the rainfall beginning. Even though some of the lead from wet deposition, simulated with a standard isotope substance, was adsorbed onto adhered roof dust and/or retained on rooftop in runoff system, most of it (50-82 %) remained as dissolved lead in the runoff for rainfall events of varying intensity. Regarding the distribution of lead in the runoff system, the results indicated that it could be carried in the runoff in dissolved and particulate form, be adsorbed to adhered roof dust, or remain on the rooftop because of adsorption to the roof material. Lead from the different sources showed different distribution patterns that were also related to the rainfall intensity. Higher rainfall intensity resulted in a higher proportion of lead in the runoff and a lower proportion of lead remaining on the rooftop.

Soil organic carbon loss and selective transportation under field simulated rainfall events.

PubMed

Nie, Xiaodong; Li, Zhongwu; Huang, Jinquan; Huang, Bin; Zhang, Yan; Ma, Wenming; Hu, Yanbiao; Zeng, Guangming

2014-01-01

The study on the lateral movement of soil organic carbon (SOC) during soil erosion can improve the understanding of global carbon budget. Simulated rainfall experiments on small field plots were conducted to investigate the SOC lateral movement under different rainfall intensities and tillage practices. Two rainfall intensities (High intensity (HI) and Low intensity (LI)) and two tillage practices (No tillage (NT) and Conventional tillage (CT)) were maintained on three plots (2 m width × 5 m length): HI-NT, LI-NT and LI-CT. The rainfall lasted 60 minutes after the runoff generated, the sediment yield and runoff volume were measured and sampled at 6-min intervals. SOC concentration of sediment and runoff as well as the sediment particle size distribution were measured. The results showed that most of the eroded organic carbon (OC) was lost in form of sediment-bound organic carbon in all events. The amount of lost SOC in LI-NT event was 12.76 times greater than that in LI-CT event, whereas this measure in HI-NT event was 3.25 times greater than that in LI-NT event. These results suggest that conventional tillage as well as lower rainfall intensity can reduce the amount of lost SOC during short-term soil erosion. Meanwhile, the eroded sediment in all events was enriched in OC, and higher enrichment ratio of OC (ERoc) in sediment was observed in LI events than that in HI event, whereas similar ERoc curves were found in LI-CT and LI-NT events. Furthermore, significant correlations between ERoc and different size sediment particles were only observed in HI-NT event. This indicates that the enrichment of OC is dependent on the erosion process, and the specific enrichment mechanisms with respect to different erosion processes should be studied in future.

Soil Organic Carbon Loss and Selective Transportation under Field Simulated Rainfall Events

PubMed Central

Nie, Xiaodong; Li, Zhongwu; Huang, Jinquan; Huang, Bin; Zhang, Yan; Ma, Wenming; Hu, Yanbiao; Zeng, Guangming

2014-01-01

The study on the lateral movement of soil organic carbon (SOC) during soil erosion can improve the understanding of global carbon budget. Simulated rainfall experiments on small field plots were conducted to investigate the SOC lateral movement under different rainfall intensities and tillage practices. Two rainfall intensities (High intensity (HI) and Low intensity (LI)) and two tillage practices (No tillage (NT) and Conventional tillage (CT)) were maintained on three plots (2 m width × 5 m length): HI-NT, LI-NT and LI-CT. The rainfall lasted 60 minutes after the runoff generated, the sediment yield and runoff volume were measured and sampled at 6-min intervals. SOC concentration of sediment and runoff as well as the sediment particle size distribution were measured. The results showed that most of the eroded organic carbon (OC) was lost in form of sediment-bound organic carbon in all events. The amount of lost SOC in LI-NT event was 12.76 times greater than that in LI-CT event, whereas this measure in HI-NT event was 3.25 times greater than that in LI-NT event. These results suggest that conventional tillage as well as lower rainfall intensity can reduce the amount of lost SOC during short-term soil erosion. Meanwhile, the eroded sediment in all events was enriched in OC, and higher enrichment ratio of OC (ERoc) in sediment was observed in LI events than that in HI event, whereas similar ERoc curves were found in LI-CT and LI-NT events. Furthermore, significant correlations between ERoc and different size sediment particles were only observed in HI-NT event. This indicates that the enrichment of OC is dependent on the erosion process, and the specific enrichment mechanisms with respect to different erosion processes should be studied in future. PMID:25166015

Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

2014-05-01

Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government through its AHRF program.

The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue transmission: a multi-level modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chen, Tzu-Hsin

2017-04-01

Dengue fever is one of potentially life-threatening mosquito-borne diseases and IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has confirmed that dengue incidence is sensitive to the critical weather conditions, such as effects of temperature. However, previous literature focused on the effects of monthly or weekly average temperature or accumulative precipitation on dengue incidence. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue outbreak is under investigated. The purpose of the study focuses on measuring the effect of the intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation on dengue outbreaks. We developed the indices of intra-annual temperature variability are maximum continuity, intermittent, and accumulation of most suitable temperature (MST) for dengue vectors; and also the indices of intra-annual precipitation variability, including the measure of continuity of wetness or dryness during a pre-epidemic period; and rainfall intensity during an epidemic period. We used multi-level modeling to investigate the intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998-2015. Our results indicate that accumulation and maximum continuity of MST are more significant than average temperature on dengue outbreaks. The effect of continuity of wetness during the pre-epidemic period is significantly more positive on promoting dengue outbreaks than the rainfall effect during the epidemic period. Meanwhile, extremely high or low rainfall density during an epidemic period do not promote the spread of dengue epidemics. Our study differentiates the effects of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks and also provides policy implications for further dengue control under the threats of climate change. Keywords: dengue fever, meteorological variations, multi-level model

Universal inverse power-law distribution for temperature and rainfall in the UK region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvam, A. M.

2014-06-01

Meteorological parameters, such as temperature, rainfall, pressure, etc., exhibit selfsimilar space-time fractal fluctuations generic to dynamical systems in nature such as fluid flows, spread of forest fires, earthquakes, etc. The power spectra of fractal fluctuations display inverse power-law form signifying long-range correlations. A general systems theory model predicts universal inverse power-law form incorporating the golden mean for the fractal fluctuations. The model predicted distribution was compared with observed distribution of fractal fluctuations of all size scales (small, large and extreme values) in the historic month-wise temperature (maximum and minimum) and total rainfall for the four stations Oxford, Armagh, Durham and Stornoway in the UK region, for data periods ranging from 92 years to 160 years. For each parameter, the two cumulative probability distributions, namely cmax and cmin starting from respectively maximum and minimum data value were used. The results of the study show that (i) temperature distributions (maximum and minimum) follow model predicted distribution except for Stornowy, minimum temperature cmin. (ii) Rainfall distribution for cmin follow model predicted distribution for all the four stations. (iii) Rainfall distribution for cmax follows model predicted distribution for the two stations Armagh and Stornoway. The present study suggests that fractal fluctuations result from the superimposition of eddy continuum fluctuations.

Regional maximum rainfall analysis using L-moments at the Titicaca Lake drainage, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Palomino, Carlos Antonio; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo Sven

2017-08-01

The present study investigates the application of the index flood L-moments-based regional frequency analysis procedure (RFA-LM) to the annual maximum 24-h rainfall (AM) of 33 rainfall gauge stations (RGs) to estimate rainfall quantiles at the Titicaca Lake drainage (TL). The study region was chosen because it is characterised by common floods that affect agricultural production and infrastructure. First, detailed quality analyses and verification of the RFA-LM assumptions were conducted. For this purpose, different tests for outlier verification, homogeneity, stationarity, and serial independence were employed. Then, the application of RFA-LM procedure allowed us to consider the TL as a single, hydrologically homogeneous region, in terms of its maximum rainfall frequency. That is, this region can be modelled by a generalised normal (GNO) distribution, chosen according to the Z test for goodness-of-fit, L-moments (LM) ratio diagram, and an additional evaluation of the precision of the regional growth curve. Due to the low density of RG in the TL, it was important to produce maps of the AM design quantiles estimated using RFA-LM. Therefore, the ordinary Kriging interpolation (OK) technique was used. These maps will be a useful tool for determining the different AM quantiles at any point of interest for hydrologists in the region.

Rainfall and tillage effects on transport of fecal bacteria and sex hormones 17beta-estradiol and testosterone from broiler litter applications to a Georgia Piedmont Ultisol.

PubMed

Jenkins, Michael B; Truman, Clint C; Siragusa, Gregory; Line, Eric; Bailey, J Stan; Frye, Jonathan; Endale, Dinku M; Franklin, Dorcas H; Schomberg, Harry H; Fisher, Dwight S; Sharpe, Ronald R

2008-09-15

Poultry litter provides nutrients for crop and pasture production; however, it also contains fecal bacteria, sex hormones (17beta-estradiol and testosterone) and antibiotic residues that may contaminate surface waters. Our objective was to quantify transport of fecal bacteria, estradiol, testosterone and antibiotic residues from a Cecil sandy loam managed since 1991 under no-till (NT) and conventional tillage (CT) to which either poultry litter (PL) or conventional fertilizer (CF) was applied based on the nitrogen needs of corn (Zea mays L) in the Southern Piedmont of NE Georgia. Simulated rainfall was applied for 60 min to 2 by 3-m field plots at a constant rate in 2004 and variable rate in 2005. Runoff was continuously measured and subsamples taken for determining flow-weighted concentrations of fecal bacteria, hormones, and antibiotic residues. Neither Salmonella, nor Campylobacter, nor antimicrobial residues were detected in litter, soil, or runoff. Differences in soil concentrations of fecal bacteria before and after rainfall simulations were observed only for Escherichia coli in the constant rainfall intensity experiment. Differences in flow-weighted concentrations were observed only for testosterone in both constant and variable intensity rainfall experiments, and were greatest for treatments that received poultry litter. Total loads of E. coli and fecal enterococci, were largest for both tillage treatments receiving poultry litter for the variable rainfall intensity. Load of testosterone was greatest for no-till plots receiving poultry litter under variable rainfall intensity. Poultry litter application rates commensurate for corn appeared to enhance only soil concentrations of E. coli, and runoff concentrations of testosterone above background levels.

Surface Runoff Threshold Responses to Rainfall Intensity, Scale, and Land Use Type, Change and Disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaskar, A.; Kampf, S. K.; Green, T. R.; Wilson, C.; Wagenbrenner, J.; Erksine, R. H.

2017-12-01

The dominance of infiltration-excess (Hortonian) overland flow can be determined by how well a rainfall intensity threshold predicts streamflow response. Areas in which we would expect infiltration-excess overland flow to dominate include urban, bedrock, desert pavement, and lands disturbed by vegetation removal (e.g., after a fire burn or fallow agricultural lands). Using a transferable method of identifying the existence of thresholds, we compare the following sites to investigate their hydrologic responses to 60-minute rainfall intensities: desert pavement sites in Arizona (Walnut Gulch and Yuma Proving Ground), post-fire sites in a forested, mountainous burn area in north-central Colorado (High Park Fire), an area of northeastern Colorado Plains that has transitioned from dryland agriculture to conservation reserve (Drake Farm), and watersheds in suburban Baltimore, Maryland which range from less than 5% to over 50% impervious surface cover. We observed that at desert sites, the necessary threshold of rainfall intensity to produce flow increased with watershed size. In burned watersheds, watershed size did not have a clear effect on rainfall thresholds, but thresholds increased with time after burning, with streamflow no longer exhibiting clear threshold responses after the third year post-fire. At the agricultural site, the frequency of runoff events decreased during the transition from cultivated crops to mixed perennial native grasses. In an area where the natural land cover (forested) would be not dominated by infiltration-excess overland flow, urbanization greatly lowered the rainfall thresholds needed for hydrologic response. This work contributes to building a predictive framework for identifying what naturally-occurring landscapes are dominated by infiltration-excess overland flow, and how land use change could shift the dominance of infiltration-excess overland flow. Characterizing the driving mechanism for streamflow generation will allow better prediction of hydrologic response to rainfall events.

Infrared Data for Storm Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, R.

1982-01-01

The papers in this section include: 1) 'Thunderstorm Top Structure Observed by Aircraft Overflights with an Infrared Radiometer'; 2) 'Thunderstorm Intensity as Determined from Satellite Data'; 3) 'Relation of Satellite-Based Thunderstorm Intensity to Radar-Estimated Rainfall'; 4) 'A Simple Physical Basis for Relating Geosynchronous Satellite Infrared Observations to Thunderstorm Rainfall'; 5) 'Satellite-Observed Cloud-Top Height Changes in Tornadic Thunderstorms'; 6) 'Predicting Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using Satellite-Measured Equivalent Blackbody Temperatures of Cloud Tops'.

Convective and microphysics parameterization impact on simulating heavy rainfall in Semarang (case study on February 12th, 2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faridatussafura, Nurzaka; Wandala, Agie

2018-05-01

The meteorological model WRF-ARW version 3.8.1 is used for simulating the heavy rainfall in Semarang that occurred on February 12th, 2015. Two different convective schemes and two different microphysics scheme in a nested configuration were chosen. The sensitivity of those schemes in capturing the extreme weather event has been tested. GFS data were used for the initial and boundary condition. Verification on the twenty-four hours accumulated rainfall using GSMaPsatellite data shows that Kain-Fritsch convective scheme and Lin microphysics scheme is the best combination scheme among the others. The combination also gives the highest success ratio value in placing high intensity rainfall area. Based on the ROC diagram, KF-Lin shows the best performance in detecting high intensity rainfall. However, the combination still has high bias value.

Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls by using non-homogeneous Poissonian processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirangelo, B.; Ferrari, E.; de Luca, D. L.

2009-09-01

In recent years several temporally homogeneous stochastic models have been applied to describe the rainfall process. In particular stochastic analysis of daily rainfall time series may contribute to explain the statistic features of the temporal variability related to the phenomenon. Due to the evident periodicity of the physical process, these models have to be used only to short temporal intervals in which occurrences and intensities of rainfalls can be considered reliably homogeneous. To this aim, occurrences of daily rainfalls can be considered as a stationary stochastic process in monthly periods. In this context point process models are widely used for at-site analysis of daily rainfall occurrence; they are continuous time series models, and are able to explain intermittent feature of rainfalls and simulate interstorm periods. With a different approach, periodic features of daily rainfalls can be interpreted by using a temporally non-homogeneous stochastic model characterized by parameters expressed as continuous functions in the time. In this case, great attention has to be paid to the parsimony of the models, as regards the number of parameters and the bias introduced into the generation of synthetic series, and to the influence of threshold values in extracting peak storm database from recorded daily rainfall heights. In this work, a stochastic model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process, characterized by a time-dependent intensity of rainfall occurrence, is employed to explain seasonal effects of daily rainfalls exceeding prefixed threshold values. In particular, variation of rainfall occurrence intensity ? (t) is modelled by using Fourier series analysis, in which the non-homogeneous process is transformed into a homogeneous and unit one through a proper transformation of time domain, and the choice of the minimum number of harmonics is evaluated applying available statistical tests. The procedure is applied to a dataset of rain gauges located in different geographical zones of Mediterranean area. Time series have been selected on the basis of the availability of at least 50 years in the time period 1921-1985, chosen as calibration period, and of all the years of observation in the subsequent validation period 1986-2005, whose daily rainfall occurrence process variability is under hypothesis. Firstly, for each time series and for each fixed threshold value, parameters estimation of the non-homogeneous Poisson model is carried out, referred to calibration period. As second step, in order to test the hypothesis that daily rainfall occurrence process preserves the same behaviour in more recent time periods, the intensity distribution evaluated for calibration period is also adopted for the validation period. Starting from this and using a Monte Carlo approach, 1000 synthetic generations of daily rainfall occurrences, of length equal to validation period, have been carried out, and for each simulation sample ?(t) has been evaluated. This procedure is adopted because of the complexity of determining analytical statistical confidence limits referred to the sample intensity ?(t). Finally, sample intensity, theoretical function of the calibration period and 95% statistical band, evaluated by Monte Carlo approach, are matching, together with considering, for each threshold value, the mean square error (MSE) between the theoretical ?(t) and the sample one of recorded data, and his correspondent 95% one tail statistical band, estimated from the MSE values between the sample ?(t) of each synthetic series and the theoretical one. The results obtained may be very useful in the context of the identification and calibration of stochastic rainfall models based on historical precipitation data. Further applications of the non-homogeneous Poisson model will concern the joint analyses of the storm occurrence process with the rainfall height marks, interpreted by using a temporally homogeneous model in proper sub-year intervals.

Does the GPM mission resolve the systematic error dependence with climatology and topography - a statistical and hydrologic evaluation over India?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beria, H.; Nanda, T., Sr.; Bisht, D. S.; Chatterjee, C.

2016-12-01

Increasing hydrologic extremes in a changing climate with lack of quality rainfall forcings have inspired the development of a number of satellite and reanalysis based precipitation products in the past decade. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has emerged as the front runner in this race, providing high quality precipitation forcings in the tropical part of the world. However, TRMM is known to suffer from its poor sensitivity to low rainfall intensities due to limited resolving power of its sensors, and is also not known to accurately resolve topography in its rainfall estimates. The Global Precipitation Mission (GPM), a follow-up mission of TRMM, promises enhanced spatio-temporal resolution along with upgrades in sensors and rainfall estimation techniques. In this study, the rainfall estimates of Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), was compared with those of TRMM for the major basins in India for the year 2014. IMERG depicted higher skill (in terms of correlation) for the majority of basins at all rainfall intensities, with a drastic improvement in low rainfall estimates (smaller biases in 75 out of 86 basins). IMERG was found to improve the topographic resolution, with lower error in high elevation basins. IMERG could better resolve the sharp topographic gradient in the Western Ghat region of India. However, IMERG suffered from poor skill in the semi-arid basins of Rajasthan, at all rainfall intensities. Rainfall-runoff exercise over Mahanadi River basin (a flood prone basin on the Eastern coast of India) using Variable Infiltration Capacity Model (VIC) showed better simulations with TRMM, mainly due to the overestimation of low rainfall events by IMERG. Also, the calibration scheme could be put to fault as the period of availability of IMERG is rather small, and more in-depth hydrologic analysis could only be carried out with sufficiently longer time series. Overall, the fine spatial and temporal resolution along with improved accuracy, promises new horizons in hydrologic forecasting under data scarcity.

Monsoon Rainfall and Landslides in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahal, R. K.; Hasegawa, S.; Bhandary, N. P.; Yatabe, R.

2009-12-01

A large number of human settlements on the Nepal Himalayas are situated either on old landslide mass or on landslide-prone areas. As a result, a great number of people are affected by large- and small-scale landslides all over the Himalayas especially during monsoon periods. In Nepal, only in the half monsoon period (June 10 to August 15), 70, 50 and 68 people were killed from landslides in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. In this context, this paper highlights monsoon rainfall and their implications in the Nepal Himalaya. In Nepal, monsoon is major source of rainfall in summer and approximately 80% of the annual total rainfall occurs from June to September. The measured values of mean annual precipitation in Nepal range from a low of approximately 250 mm at area north of the Himalaya to many areas exceeding 6,000 mm. The mean annual rainfall varying between 1500 mm and 2500 mm predominate over most of the country. In Nepal, the daily distribution of precipitation during rainy season is also uneven. Sometime 10% of the total annual precipitation can occur in a single day. Similarly, 50% total annual rainfall also can occur within 10 days of monsoon. This type of uneven distribution plays an important role in triggering many landslides in Nepal. When spatial distribution of landslides was evaluated from record of more than 650 landslides, it is found that more landslides events were concentrated at central Nepal in the area of high mean annual rainfall. When monsoon rainfall and landslide relationship was taken into consideration, it was noticed that a considerable number of landslides were triggered in the Himalaya by continuous rainfall of 3 to 90 days. It has been noticed that continuous rainfall of few days (5 days or 7 days or 10 days) are usually responsible for landsliding in the Nepal Himalaya. Monsoon rains usually fall with interruptions of 2-3 days and are generally characterized by low intensity and long duration. Thus, there is a strong role of antecedent rainfall in triggering landslides. It is noticed that a moderate correlation exists between the antecedent rainfalls of 3 to 10 days and the daily rainfall at failure in the Nepal Himalaya. The rainfall thresholds are utilized to develop early warning systems. Taking reference of the intensity-duration threshold and normalized rainfall intensity threshold, two proto-type models of early warning systems (RIEWS and N-RIEWS) are proposed. Early warning models show less time for evacuation in the case of short duration and high intensity rainfall, whereas for long duration rainfall, warning time is enough and when warning information disseminate to the people, people will aware to possible landslide risk. In the meantime, they will be mentally ready to tackle with possible disaster of coming hours or days and will avoid the consequences. On the basis of coarse hydro-meteorological data of developing country like Nepal, this simple and rather easy model of early warning will certainly help to reduce fatalities from landslides.

Application of modified export coefficient method on the load estimation of non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus pollution of soil and water loss in semiarid regions.

PubMed

Wu, Lei; Gao, Jian-en; Ma, Xiao-yi; Li, Dan

2015-07-01

Chinese Loess Plateau is considered as one of the most serious soil loss regions in the world, its annual sediment output accounts for 90 % of the total sediment loads of the Yellow River, and most of the Loess Plateau has a very typical characteristic of "soil and water flow together", and water flow in this area performs with a high sand content. Serious soil loss results in nitrogen and phosphorus loss of soil. Special processes of water and soil in the Loess Plateau lead to the loss mechanisms of water, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus are different from each other, which are greatly different from other areas of China. In this study, the modified export coefficient method considering the rainfall erosivity factor was proposed to simulate and evaluate non-point source (NPS) nitrogen and phosphorus loss load caused by soil and water loss in the Yanhe River basin of the hilly and gully area, Loess Plateau. The results indicate that (1) compared with the traditional export coefficient method, annual differences of NPS total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) load after considering the rainfall erosivity factor are obvious; it is more in line with the general law of NPS pollution formation in a watershed, and it can reflect the annual variability of NPS pollution more accurately. (2) Under the traditional and modified conditions, annual changes of NPS TN and TP load in four counties (districts) took on the similar trends from 1999 to 2008; the load emission intensity not only is closely related to rainfall intensity but also to the regional distribution of land use and other pollution sources. (3) The output structure, source composition, and contribution rate of NPS pollution load under the modified method are basically the same with the traditional method. The average output structure of TN from land use and rural life is about 66.5 and 17.1 %, the TP is about 53.8 and 32.7 %; the maximum source composition of TN (59 %) is farmland; the maximum source composition of TP (38.1 %) is rural life; the maximum contribution rates of TN and TP in Baota district are 36.26 and 39.26 %, respectively. Results may provide data support for NPS pollution prevention and control in the loess hilly and gully region and also provide scientific reference for the protection of ecological environment of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi.

Installation Restoration Program. 156th Tactical Fighter Group, Puerto Rico ANG, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, San Juan, Puerto Rico; 140th Aircraft Control and Warning Squadron, Puerto Rico ANG, Toa Baja, Puerto Rico; and 141st Aircraft Control and Warning Squadron, Puerto Rico ANG, Aguadilla, Puerto Rico

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-10-01

SETTING. .. .. .... .... .... .... .... -1 A. Meteorology .. .. ..... .... .... .... ....... -1 B. Geology .. .. ..... .... .... .... .... ..... -1 C...2a.’~1 quadrangles, San Lcto a fte16hTG uroRcJuan and Carolina, Lcto a fte16hTG uroRcPuerto Rica . Air National Guard, San Juan, Puerto Rico.3 Boca de...precipitation in this area is negative 27.8 inches per year and maximum rainfall intensity is approximately 9 inches. B. Geology Puerto Rico is the

Determination of first flush criteria using dynamic EMCs (event mean concentrations) on highway stormwater runoff.

PubMed

Kim, L H; Jeong, S M; Ko, S O

2007-01-01

Recently the Ministry of Environment in Korea has developed the total maximum daily load program in accordance with the target pollutant and its concentration goal on four major large rivers. Since the program is largely related to regional development, nonpoint source control is both important and topical. Of the various nonpoint sources, highways are stormwater intensive land uses since they are impervious and have high pollutant mass emissions from vehicular activity. The event mean concentration (EMC) is useful in estimating the loadings to receiving water bodies. However, the EMC does not provide information on the time varying changes in pollutant concentration or mass emissions, which are often important for best management practice development, or understanding shock loads. Therefore, in this study a new concept, the dynamic EMC determination method, will be introduced to clearly verify the relationship between EMC and the first flush effect. Three monitoring sites in Daejeon metropolitan city areas were equipped with an automatic rainfall gauge and a flow meter for accumulating the data such as rainfall and runoff flow. The dynamic EMC method was applied to more than 17 events, and the improved first flush criteria were determined on the ranges of storm duration and accumulated rainfall.

A hybrid hydrologically complemented warning model for shallow landslides induced by extreme rainfall in Korean Mountain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh Pradhan, Ananta Man; Kang, Hyo-Sub; Kim, Yun-Tae

2016-04-01

This study uses a physically based approach to evaluate the factor of safety of the hillslope for different hydrological conditions, in Mt Umyeon, south of Seoul. The hydrological conditions were determined using intensity and duration of whole Korea of known landslide inventory data. Quantile regression statistical method was used to ascertain different probability warning levels on the basis of rainfall thresholds. Physically based models are easily interpreted and have high predictive capabilities but rely on spatially explicit and accurate parameterization, which is commonly not possible. Statistical probabilistic methods can include other causative factors which influence the slope stability such as forest, soil and geology, but rely on good landslide inventories of the site. In this study a hybrid approach has described that combines the physically-based landslide susceptibility for different hydrological conditions. A presence-only based maximum entropy model was used to hybrid and analyze relation of landslide with conditioning factors. About 80% of the landslides were listed among the unstable sites identified in the proposed model, thereby presenting its effectiveness and accuracy in determining unstable areas and areas that require evacuation. These cumulative rainfall thresholds provide a valuable reference to guide disaster prevention authorities in the issuance of warning levels with the ability to reduce losses and save lives.

Map of debris flows caused by rainfall during 1996 in parts of the Reedsport and Deer Head Point quadrangles, Douglas County, southern Coast Range, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coe, Jeffrey A.; Michael, John A.; Burgos, Marianela Mercado

2011-01-01

This 1:12,000-scale map shows an inventory of debris flows caused by rainfall during 1996 in a 94.4 km2 area in the southern Coast Range of Oregon. This map and associated digital data are part of a larger U.S. Geological Survey study of debris flows in the southern Coast Range. Available evidence indicates that the flows were triggered by a rain storm that occurred between November 17 and 19. The closest rain gage in the Coast Range (Goodwin Peak) recorded 245 mm during the storm. Maximum rainfall intensity during the storm was 13.2 mm/hr on November 18. Debris flows were photogrammetrically mapped from 1:12,000-scale aerial photographs flown in May, 1997. The inventory is presented on imagery derived from LiDAR data acquired in 2008. We classified mapped debris flows into four categories based on the type of debris-flow activity: (1) discrete slide source areas, (2) predominantly erosion, (3) predominantly transport or mixed erosion and deposition, and (4) predominantly deposition. Locations of woody-debris jams are also shown on the map. The area encompassed by debris flows is 2.1 percent of the 94.4 km2 map area.

[Sediment-yielding process and its mechanisms of slope erosion in wind-water erosion crisscross region of Loess Plateau, Northwest China].

PubMed

Tuo, Deng-Feng; Xu, Ming-Xiang; Zheng, Shi-Qing; Li, Qiang

2012-12-01

Due to the coupling effects of wind and water erosions in the wind-water erosion crisscross region of Loess Plateau, the slope erosion in the region was quite serious, and the erosion process was quite complicated. By using wind tunnel combined with simulated rainfall, this paper studied the sediment-yielding process and its mechanisms of slope erosion under the effects of wind-water alternate erosion, and quantitatively analyzed the efffects of wind erosion on water erosion and the relationships between wind and water erosions. There was an obvious positive interaction between wind and water erosions. Wind erosion promoted the development of microtopography, and altered the quantitative relationship between the sediment-yielding under water erosion and the variation of rainfall intensity. At the rainfall intensity of 60 and 80 mm x h(-1), the sediment-yielding without wind erosion decreased with the duration of rainfall and tended to be stable, but the sediment-yielding with wind erosion decreased to a certain valley value first, and then showed an increasing trend. At the rainfall intensity of 60, 80, and 100 mm x h(-1), the sediment-yielding with the wind erosion at speeds of 11 and 14 m x s(-1) increased by 7.3%-27.9% and 23.2%-39.0%, respectively, as compared with the sediment-yielding without wind erosion. At the rainfall intensity of 120 and 150 mm x h(-1) and in the rainfall duration of 15 minutes, the sediment-yielding with and without wind erosion presented a decreasing trend, but, with the increase of rainfall duration, the sediment-yielding with wind erosion showed a trend of decreasing first and increasing then, as compared with the sediment-yielding without wind erosion. The mechanisms of wind-water alternate erosion were complicated, reflecting in the mutual relation and mutual promotion of wind erosion and water erosion in the aspects of temporal-spatial distribution, energy supply, and action mode of erosion forces.

Estimating impact of rainfall change on hydrological processes in Jianfengling rainforest watershed, China using BASINS-HSPF-CAT modeling system

Treesearch

Zhang Zhou; Ying Ouyang; Yide Li; Zhijun Qiu; Matt Moran

2017-01-01

Climate change over the past several decades has resulted in shifting rainfall pattern and modifying rain-fall intensity, which has exacerbated hydrological processes and added the uncertainty and instability tothese processes. This study ascertained impacts of potential future rainfall change on hydrological pro-cesses at the Jianfengling (JFL) tropical mountain...

High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part 1; The Organization of Vertical Motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Pu, Zhaoxia

2003-01-01

Hurricanes are well known for their strong winds and heavy rainfall, particularly in the intense rainband (eyewall) surrounding the calmer eye of the storm. In some hurricanes, the rainfall is distributed evenly around the eye so that it has a donut shape on radar images. In other cases, the rainfall is concentrated on one side of the eyewall and nearly absent on the other side and is said to be asymmetric. This study examines how the vertical air motions that produce the rainfall are distributed within the eyewall of an asymmetric hurricane and the factors that cause this pattern of rainfall. We use a sophisticated numerical forecast model to simulate Hurricane Bonnie, which occurred in late August of 1998 during a special NASA field experiment designed to study hurricanes. The simulation results suggest that vertical wind shear (a rapid change in wind speed or direction with height) caused the asymmetric rainfall and vertical air motion patterns by tilting the hurricane vortex and favoring upward air motions in the direction of tilt. Although the rainfall in the hurricane eyewall may surround more than half of the eye, the updrafts that produce the rainfall are concentrated in very small-scale, intense updraft cores that occupy only about 10% of the eyewall area. The model simulation suggests that the timing and location of individual updraft cores are controlled by intense, small-scale vortices (regions of rapidly swirling flow) in the eyewall and that the updrafts form when the vortices encounter low-level air moving into the eyewall.

Soil erosion assessment of a Himalayan river basin using TRMM data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, A.; Mishra, S. K.; Gautam, A. K.; Kumar, D.

2015-04-01

In this study, an attempt has been made to assess the soil erosion of a Himalayan river basin, the Karnali basin, Nepal, using rainfall erosivity (R-factor) derived from satellite-based rainfall estimates (TRMM-3B42 V7). Average annual sediment yield was estimated using the well-known Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). The eight-year annual average rainfall erosivity factor (R) for the Karnali River basin was found to be 2620.84 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 year-1. Using intensity-erosivity relationships and eight years of the TRMM daily rainfall dataset (1998-2005), average annual soil erosion was also estimated for Karnali River basin. The minimum and maximum values of the rainfall erosivity factor were 1108.7 and 4868.49 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 year-1, respectively, during the assessment period. The average annual soil loss of the Karnali River basin was found to be 38.17 t ha-1 year-1. Finally, the basin area was categorized according to the following scale of erosion severity classes: Slight (0 to 5 t ha-1 year-1), Moderate (5 to 10 t ha-1 year-1), High (10 to 20 t ha-1 year-1), Very High (20 to 40 t ha-1 year-1), Severe (40 to 80 t ha-1 year-1) and Very Severe (>80 t ha-1 year-1). About 30.86% of the river basin area was found to be in the slight erosion class. The areas covered by the moderate, high, very high, severe and very severe erosion potential zones were 13.09%, 6.36%, 11.09%, 22.02% and 16.64% respectively. The study revealed that approximately 69% of the Karnali River basin needs immediate attention from a soil conservation point of view.

Intra-event variability of Escherichia coli and total suspended solids in urban stormwater runoff.

PubMed

McCarthy, D T; Hathaway, J M; Hunt, W F; Deletic, A

2012-12-15

Sediment levels are important for environmental health risk assessments of surface water bodies, while faecal pollution can introduce significant public health risks for users of these systems. Urban stormwater is one of the largest sources of contaminants to surface waters, yet the fate and transport of these contaminants (especially those microbiological) have received little attention in the literature. Stormwater runoff from five urbanized catchments were monitored for pathogen indicator bacteria and total suspended solids in two developed countries. Multiple discrete samples were collected during each storm event, allowing an analysis of intra-event characteristics such as initial concentration, peak concentration, maximum rate of change, and relative confidence interval. The data suggest that a catchment's area influences pollutant characteristics, as larger catchments have more complex stormwater infrastructure and more variable pollutant sources. The variability of total suspended solids for many characteristics was similar to Escherichia coli, indicating that the variability of E. coli may not be substantially higher than that of other pollutants as initially speculated. Further, variations in E. coli appeared to be more commonly correlated to antecedent climate, while total suspended solids were more highly correlated to rainfall/runoff characteristics. This emphasizes the importance of climate on microbial persistence and die off in urban systems. Discrete intra-event concentrations of total suspended solids and, to a lesser extent E. coli, were correlated to flow, velocity, and rainfall intensity (adjusted by time of concentrations). Concentration changes were found to be best described by adjusted rainfall intensity, as shown by other researchers. This study has resulted in an increased understanding of the magnitude of intra-event variations of total suspended solids and E. coli and what physical and climatic parameters influence these variations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of storm response of streams in small, unmined and valley-filled watersheds, 1999-2001, Ballard fork, West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Messinger, Terence

2003-01-01

During storms when rainfall intensity exceeded about 1 inch per hour, peak unit runoff from the Unnamed Tributary (surface-mined and filled) Watershed exceeded peak unit runoff from the Spring Branch (unmined) Watershed in the Ballard Fork Watershed in southern West Virginia. During most storms, those with intensity less than about 1 inch per hour, peak unit (area-normalized) flows were greater from the Spring Branch Watershed than the Unnamed Tributary Watershed. One storm that produced less than an inch of rain before flow from the previous storm had receded caused peak unit flow from the Unnamed Tributary Watershed to exceed peak unit flow from the Spring Branch Watershed. Peak unit flow was usually similar in Spring Branch and Ballard Fork. Peak unit flows are expected to decrease with increasing watershed size in homogeneous watersheds; drainage area and proportion of the three watersheds covered by valley fills are 0.19 square mile (mi?) and 44 percent for the Unnamed Tributary Watershed, 0.53 mi? and 0 percent for the Spring Branch Watershed, and 2.12 mi? and 12 percent for the Ballard Fork Watershed. Following all storms with sufficient rainfall intensity, about 0.25 inches per hour, the storm hydrograph from the Unnamed Tributary Watershed showed a double peak, as a sharp initial rise was followed by a decrease in flow and then a delayed secondary peak of water that had apparently flowed through the valley fill. Hortonian (excess overland) flow may be important in the Unnamed Tributary Watershed during intense storms, and may cause the initial peak on the rising arm of storm hydrographs; the water composing the initial peaks may be conveyed by drainage structures on the mine. Ballard Fork and Spring Branch had hydrographs with single peaks, typical of elsewhere in West Virginia. During all storms with 1-hour rainfall greater than 0.75 inches or 24-hour rainfall greater than 1.75 inches during which all stream gages recorded a complete record, the Unnamed Tributary yielded the most total unit flow. In three selected major storms, total unit flow from the Unnamed Tributary during recessions exceeded storm flow, and its total unit flow was greatest among the streams during all three recessions. Runoff patterns from the mined watershed are influenced by the compaction of soils on the mine, the apparent low maximum rate of infiltration into the valley fill compared to that in the unmined, forested watershed, storage of water in the valley fill, and the absence of interception from trees and leaf litter. No storms during this study produced 1-hour or 24-hour rainfall in excess of the 5-year return period, and streamflow during this study never exceeded a magnitude equivalent to the 1.5-year return period; relative peak unit flow among the three streams in this study could be different in larger storms. Rainfall-runoff relations on altered landscapes are site-specific, and aspects of mining and reclamation practice that affect storm response may vary among mines.

Hydroclimate temporal variability in a coastal Mediterranean watershed: the Tafna basin, North-West Algeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulariah, Ouafik; Longobardi, Antonia; Meddi, Mohamed

2017-04-01

One of the major challenges scientists, practitioners and stakeholders are nowadays involved in, is to provide the worldwide population with reliable water supplies, protecting, at the same time, the freshwater ecosystems quality and quantity. Climate and land use changes undermine the balance between water demand and water availability, causing alteration of rivers flow regime. Knowledge of hydro-climate variables temporal and spatial variability is clearly helpful to plan drought and flood hazard mitigation strategies but also to adapt them to future environmental scenarios. The present study relates to the coastal semi-arid Tafna catchment, located in the North-West of Algeria, within the Mediterranean basin. The aim is the investigation of streamflow and rainfall indices temporal variability in six sub-basins of the large catchment Tafna, attempting to relate streamflow and rainfall changes. Rainfall and streamflow time series have been preliminary tested for data quality and homogeneity, through the coupled application of two-tailed t test, Pettitt test and Cumsum tests (significance level of 0.1, 0.05 and 0.01). Subsequently maximum annual daily rainfall and streamflow and average daily annual rainfall and streamflow time series have been derived and tested for temporal variability, through the application of the Mann Kendall and Sen's test. Overall maximum annual daily streamflow time series exhibit a negative trend which is however significant for only 30% of the station. Maximum annual daily rainfall also e exhibit a negative trend which is intend significant for the 80% of the stations. In the case of average daily annual streamflow and rainfall, the tendency for decrease in time is unclear and, in both cases, appear significant for 60% of stations.

Comparative analysis of rainfall and landslide damage for landslide susceptibility zonation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrucci, O.; Pasqua, A. A.

2009-04-01

In the present work we applied a methodology tested in previous works to a regional sector of Calabria (Southern Italy), aiming to obtain a zonation of this area according to the susceptibility to develop landslides, as inferred from the combined analysis of past landslide events and cumulate rainfall which triggered them. The complete series of both historical landslides and daily rainfall have been organised in two databases. For each landslide event, damage, mainly defined in relation to the reimbursement requests sent to the Department of Public Works, has been quantified using a procedure based on a Local Damage Index. Rainfall has been described by the Maximum Return Period of cumulative rainfall recorded during the landslide events. Damage index and population density, presumed to represent the location of vulnerable elements, have been referred to Thiessen polygons associated to rain gauges working at the time of the event. The procedure allowed us to carry out a classification of the polygons composing the study area according to their susceptibility to damage during DHEs. In high susceptibility polygons, severe damage occurs during rainfall characterised by low return periods; in medium susceptibility polygons, maximum return period rainfall and induced damage show equal levels of exceptionality; in low susceptibility polygons, high return period rainfall induces a low level of damage. The results can prove useful in establishing civil defence plans, emergency management, and prioritizing hazard mitigation measures.

Annual Rainfall Maxima: Theoretical Estimation of the GEV Shape Parameter k Using Multifractal Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veneziano, D.; Langousis, A.; Lepore, C.

2009-12-01

The annual maximum of the average rainfall intensity in a period of duration d, Iyear(d), is typically assumed to have generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The shape parameter k of that distribution is especially difficult to estimate from either at-site or regional data, making it important to constraint k using theoretical arguments. In the context of multifractal representations of rainfall, we observe that standard theoretical estimates of k from extreme value (EV) and extreme excess (EE) theories do not apply, while estimates from large deviation (LD) theory hold only for very small d. We then propose a new theoretical estimator based on fitting GEV models to the numerically calculated distribution of Iyear(d). A standard result from EV and EE theories is that k depends on the tail behavior of the average rainfall in d, I(d). This result holds if Iyear(d) is the maximum of a sufficiently large number n of variables, all distributed like I(d); therefore its applicability hinges on whether n = 1yr/d is large enough and the tail of I(d) is sufficiently well known. One typically assumes that at least for small d the former condition is met, but poor knowledge of the upper tail of I(d) remains an obstacle for all d. In fact, in the case of multifractal rainfall, also the first condition is not met because, irrespective of d, 1yr/d is too small (Veneziano et al., 2009, WRR, in press). Applying large deviation (LD) theory to this multifractal case, we find that, as d → 0, Iyear(d) approaches a GEV distribution whose shape parameter kLD depends on a region of the distribution of I(d) well below the upper tail, is always positive (in the EV2 range), is much larger than the value predicted by EV and EE theories, and can be readily found from the scaling properties of I(d). The scaling properties of rainfall can be inferred also from short records, but the limitation remains that the result holds under d → 0 not for finite d. Therefore, for different reasons, none of the above asymptotic theories applies to Iyear(d). In practice, one is interested in the distribution of Iyear(d) over a finite range of averaging durations d and return periods T. Using multifractal representations of rainfall, we have numerically calculated the distribution of Iyear(d) and found that, although not GEV, the distribution can be accurately approximated by a GEV model. The best-fitting parameter k depends on d, but is insensitive to the scaling properties of rainfall and the range of return periods T used for fitting. We have obtained a default expression for k(d) and compared it with estimates from historical rainfall records. The theoretical function tracks well the empirical dependence on d, although it generally overestimates the empirical k values, possibly due to deviations of rainfall from perfect scaling. This issue is under investigation.

Rainfall Modification by Major Urban Areas: Observations from Spaceborne Rain Radar on the TRMM Satellite.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Pierce, Harold; Negri, Andrew J.

2002-07-01

Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite's precipitation radar (PR) were employed to identify warm-season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Georgia; Montgomery, Alabama; Nashville, Tennessee; and San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas, Texas. Results reveal an average increase of about 28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 km downwind of the metropolis, with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48%-116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with the Metropolitan Meteorological Experiment (METROMEX) studies of St. Louis, Missouri, almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. The study establishes the possibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.

Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashid, Md. Mamunur; Beecham, Simon; Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir

2017-10-01

In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate extreme rainfall indices and annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) when downscaled daily rainfall from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCM) (four GCMs and two scenarios) output datasets and then their changes were estimated for the future period 2041-2060. The model was able to reproduce the monthly variations in the extreme rainfall indices reasonably well when forced by the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping (FAQM) was used to remove bias in the simulated daily rainfall when forced by CMIP5 GCMs, which reduced the discrepancy between observed and simulated extreme rainfall indices. Although the observed AMDR were within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated AMDR, the model consistently under-predicted the inter-annual variability of AMDR. A non-stationary model was developed using the generalized linear model for local, shape and scale to estimate the AMDR with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. The study shows that in general, AMDR is likely to decrease in the future. The Onkaparinga catchment will also experience drier conditions due to an increase in consecutive dry days coinciding with decreases in heavy (>long term 90th percentile) rainfall days, empirical 90th quantile of rainfall and maximum 5-day consecutive total rainfall for the future period (2041-2060) compared to the base period (1961-2000).

Identification of trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall over subtropical Assam in Northeast India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jhajharia, Deepak; Yadav, Brijesh K.; Maske, Sunil; Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Kar, Anil K.

2012-01-01

Trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall are investigated using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test at twenty-four sites of subtropical Assam located in the northeastern region of India. The trends are statistically confirmed by both the parametric and non-parametric methods and the magnitudes of significant trends are obtained through the linear regression test. In Assam, the average monsoon rainfall (rainy days) during the monsoon months of June to September is about 1606 mm (70), which accounts for about 70% (64%) of the annual rainfall (rainy days). On monthly time scales, sixteen and seventeen sites (twenty-one sites each) witnessed decreasing trends in the total rainfall (rainy days), out of which one and three trends (seven trends each) were found to be statistically significant in June and July, respectively. On the other hand, seventeen sites witnessed increasing trends in rainfall in the month of September, but none were statistically significant. In December (February), eighteen (twenty-two) sites witnessed decreasing (increasing) trends in total rainfall, out of which five (three) trends were statistically significant. For the rainy days during the months of November to January, twenty-two or more sites witnessed decreasing trends in Assam, but for nine (November), twelve (January) and eighteen (December) sites, these trends were statistically significant. These observed changes in rainfall, although most time series are not convincing as they show predominantly no significance, along with the well-reported climatic warming in monsoon and post-monsoon seasons may have implications for human health and water resources management over bio-diversity rich Northeast India.

Predictive susceptibility analysis of typhoon induced landslides in Central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shou, Keh-Jian; Lin, Zora

2017-04-01

Climate change caused by global warming affects Taiwan significantly for the past decade. The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, in which concentrated and intensive rainfalls generally cause geohazards including landslides and debris flows. The extraordinary, such as 2004 Mindulle and 2009 Morakot, hit Taiwan and induced serious flooding and landslides. This study employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to understand the temporal rainfall trends, distributions, and intensities in the adopted Wu River watershed in Central Taiwan. To assess the spatial hazard of the landslides, landslide susceptibility analysis was also applied. Different types of rainfall factors were tested in the susceptibility models for a better accuracy. In addition, the routes of typhoons were also considered in the predictive analysis. The results of predictive analysis can be applied for risk prevention and management in the study area.

Rainfall characteristics for shallow landsliding in Seattle, Washington, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Godt, J.W.; Baum, R.L.; Chleborad, A.F.

2006-01-01

Shallow landsliding in the Seattle, Washington, area, has caused the occasional loss of human life and millions of dollars in damage to property. The effective management of the hazzard requires an understanding of the rainfall conditions that result in landslides. We present an empirical approach to quantify the antecedent moisture conditions and rainstorm intensity and duration that have triggered shallow landsliding using 25 years of hourly rainfull data and a complementary record of landslide occurrence. Our approach combines a simple water balance to estimate the antecedent moisture conditions of hillslope materials and a rainfall intensity-duration threshold to identify periods when shallow landsliding can be expected. The water balance is calibrated with field-monitoring data and combined with the rainfall intensity-duration threshold using a decision tree. Results are cast in terms of a hypothetical landslide warning system. Two widespread landslide events are correctly identified by the warning scheme; however, it is less accurate for more isolated landsliding. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of rainfall spatial variability and intermittency on shallow landslide triggering patterns at a catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Ruette, J.; Lehmann, P.; Or, D.

2014-10-01

The occurrence of shallow landslides is often associated with intense and prolonged rainfall events, where infiltrating water reduces soil strength and may lead to abrupt mass release. Despite general understanding of the role of rainfall water in slope stability, the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides remains a challenge due to natural heterogeneity that affect hydrologic loading patterns and the largely unobservable internal progressive failures. An often overlooked and potentially important factor is the role of rainfall variability in space and time on landslide triggering that is often obscured by coarse information (e.g., hourly radar data at spatial resolution of a few kilometers). To quantify potential effects of rainfall variability on failure dynamics, spatial patterns, landslide numbers and volumes, we employed a physically based "Catchment-scale Hydromechanical Landslide Triggering" (CHLT) model for a study area where a summer storm in 2002 triggered 51 shallow landslides. In numerical experiments based on the CHLT model, we applied the measured rainfall amount of 53 mm in different artificial spatiotemporal rainfall patterns, resulting in between 30 and 100 landslides and total released soil volumes between 3000 and 60,000 m3 for the various scenarios. Results indicate that low intensity rainfall below soil's infiltration capacity resulted in the largest mechanical perturbation. This study illustrates how small-scale rainfall variability that is often overlooked by present operational rainfall data may play a key role in shaping landslide patterns.

Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen

2018-05-01

Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976-2005, future changes (2070-2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.

Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor

2018-03-01

The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.

Pattern Analysis of El Nino and La Nina Phenomenon Based on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Rainfall Intensity using Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) in West Java Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasetyo, Yudo; Nabilah, Farras

2017-12-01

Climate change occurs in 1998-2016 brings significant alteration in the earth surface. It is affects an extremely anomaly temperature such as El Nino and La Nina or mostly known as ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). West Java is one of the regions in Indonesia that encounters the impact of this phenomenon. Climate change due to ENSO also affects food production and other commodities. In this research, processing data method is conducted using programming language to process SST data and rainfall data from 1998 to 2016. The data are sea surface temperature from NOAA satellite, SST Reynolds (Sea Surface Temperature) and daily rainfall temperature from TRMM satellite. Data examination is done using analysis of rainfall spatial pattern and sea surface temperature (SST) where is affected by El Nino and La Nina phenomenon. This research results distribution map of SST and rainfall for each season to find out the impacts of El Nino and La Nina around West Java. El Nino and La Nina in Java Sea are occurring every August to February. During El Nino, sea surface temperature is between 27°C - 28°C with average temperature on 27.71°C. Rainfall intensity is 1.0 mm/day - 2.0 mm/day and the average are 1.63 mm/day. During La Nina, sea surface temperature is between 29°C - 30°C with average temperature on 29.06°C. Rainfall intensity is 9.0 mm/day - 10 mm/day, and the average is 9.74 mm/day. The correlation between rainfall and SST is 0,413 which is expresses a fairly strong correlation between parameters. The conclusion is, during La Nina SST and rainfall increase. While during El Nino SST and rainfall decrease. Hopefully this research could be a guideline to plan disaster mitigation in West Java region that is related extreme climate change.

Simulation of rainfall-runoff for major flash flood events in Karachi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zafar, Sumaira

2016-07-01

Metropolitan city Karachi has strategic importance for Pakistan. With the each passing decade the city is facing urban sprawl and rapid population growth. These rapid changes directly affecting the natural resources of city including its drainage pattern. Karachi has three major cities Malir River with the catchment area of 2252 sqkm and Lyari River has catchment area about 470.4 sqkm. These are non-perennial rivers and active only during storms. Change of natural surfaces into hard pavement causing an increase in rainfall-runoff response. Curve Number is increased which is now causing flash floods in the urban locality of Karachi. There is only one gauge installed on the upstream of the river but there no record for the discharge. Only one gauge located at the upstream is not sufficient for discharge measurements. To simulate the maximum discharge of Malir River rainfall (1985 to 2014) data were collected from Pakistan meteorological department. Major rainfall events use to simulate the rainfall runoff. Maximum rainfall-runoff response was recorded in during 1994, 2007 and 2013. This runoff causes damages and inundation in floodplain areas of Karachi. These flash flooding events not only damage the property but also cause losses of lives

Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin.

PubMed

Abah, Roland Clement; Petja, Brilliant Mareme

2016-12-01

Agriculture in the Lower Benue River Basin faces several challenges which threaten the future of agricultural development. This study was an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin. Through analysis of physical and socioeconomic parameters, the study adapted an impact assessment model to rank potential impacts on agricultural development in the study area. Rainfall intensity seemed to be increasing with a gradual reduction in the number of rainy days. The average discharge at Makurdi hydrological station was 3468.24 cubic metres per second (m 3  s -1 ), and the highest peak flow discharge was 16,400 m 3  s -1 . The daily maximum temperature and annual temperature averages for the study area are gradually rising leading to increased heat stress. Physical and chemical analyses showed that the soils are moderately fertile but require effective application of inorganic and organic fertilisers. The main occupational activities in the study area are agricultural based. The identified potential impacts of climate change on agriculture were categorised under atmospheric carbon dioxides and oxides, rainfall intensity, frequency of floods and droughts, temperature intensity and variation, heat stress, surface water trends, and soil quality and fertility. The identified potential impacts related to population dynamics on agriculture were categorised under population growth, rural-urban migration, household income and infectious diseases and HIV and AIDS. Community-level mitigation strategies were proffered. Policy makers are advised to promote irrigation farming, support farmers with farm inputs and credit facilities and establish active agricultural extension services to support the sustainable development of agriculture.

Mixed memory, (non) Hurst effect, and maximum entropy of rainfall in the tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poveda, Germán

2011-02-01

Diverse linear and nonlinear statistical parameters of rainfall under aggregation in time and the kind of temporal memory are investigated. Data sets from the Andes of Colombia at different resolutions (15 min and 1-h), and record lengths (21 months and 8-40 years) are used. A mixture of two timescales is found in the autocorrelation and autoinformation functions, with short-term memory holding for time lags less than 15-30 min, and long-term memory onwards. Consistently, rainfall variance exhibits different temporal scaling regimes separated at 15-30 min and 24 h. Tests for the Hurst effect evidence the frailty of the R/ S approach in discerning the kind of memory in high resolution rainfall, whereas rigorous statistical tests for short-memory processes do reject the existence of the Hurst effect. Rainfall information entropy grows as a power law of aggregation time, S( T) ˜ Tβ with < β> = 0.51, up to a timescale, TMaxEnt (70-202 h), at which entropy saturates, with β = 0 onwards. Maximum entropy is reached through a dynamic Generalized Pareto distribution, consistently with the maximum information-entropy principle for heavy-tailed random variables, and with its asymptotically infinitely divisible property. The dynamics towards the limit distribution is quantified. Tsallis q-entropies also exhibit power laws with T, such that Sq( T) ˜ Tβ( q) , with β( q) ⩽ 0 for q ⩽ 0, and β( q) ≃ 0.5 for q ⩾ 1. No clear patterns are found in the geographic distribution within and among the statistical parameters studied, confirming the strong variability of tropical Andean rainfall.

Towards a Quasi-global precipitation-induced Landslide Detection System using Remote Sensing Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adler, B.; Hong, Y.; Huffman, G.; Negri, A.; Pando, M.

2006-05-01

Landslides and debris flows are one of the most widespread natural hazards on Earth, responsible for thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in property damage per year. Currently, no system exists at either a national or a global scale to monitor or detect rainfall conditions that may trigger landslides. In this study, global landslide susceptibility is mapped using USGS GTOPO30 Digital Elevation, hydrological derivatives (slopes and wetness index etc.) from HYDRO1k data, soil type information downscaled from Digital Soil Map of the World (Sand, Loam, Silt, or Clay etc.), and MODIS land cover/use classification data. These variables are then combined with empirical landslide inventory data, if available, to derive a global landslide susceptibility map at elemental resolution of 1 x 1 km. This map can then be overlain with the driving force, namely rainfall estimates from the TRMM-based Multiple-satellite Precipitation Analysis to identify when areas with significant landslide potential receive heavy rainfall. The relations between rainfall intensity and rainstorm duration are regionally specific and often take the form of a power-law relation. Several empirical landslide-triggering Rainfall Intensity-Duration thresholds are implemented regionally using the 8-year TRMM-based precipitation with or without the global landslide susceptibility map at continuous space and time domain. Finally, the effectiveness of this system is validated by studying several recent deadly landslide/mudslide events. This study aims to build up a prototype quasi-global potential landslide warning system. Spatially-distributed landslide susceptibility maps and regional empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds, in combination with real-time rainfall measurements from space and rainfall forecasts from models, will be the basis for this experimental system.

A Bayesian beta distribution model for estimating rainfall IDF curves in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Jin-Young

2016-09-01

The estimation of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for rainfall data comprises a classical task in hydrology studies to support a variety of water resources projects, including urban drainage and the design of flood control structures. In a changing climate, however, traditional approaches based on historical records of rainfall and on the stationary assumption can be inadequate and lead to poor estimates of rainfall intensity quantiles. Climate change scenarios built on General Circulation Models offer a way to access and estimate future changes in spatial and temporal rainfall patterns at the daily scale at the utmost, which is not as fine temporal resolution as required (e.g. hours) to directly estimate IDF curves. In this paper we propose a novel methodology based on a four-parameter beta distribution to estimate IDF curves conditioned on the observed (or simulated) daily rainfall, which becomes the time-varying upper bound of the updated nonstationary beta distribution. The inference is conducted in a Bayesian framework that provides a better way to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters when building the IDF curves. The proposed model is tested using rainfall data from four stations located in South Korea and projected climate change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios 6 and 8.5 from the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM3-RA model. The results show that the developed model fits the historical data as good as the traditional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution but is able to produce future IDF curves that significantly differ from the historically based IDF curves. The proposed model predicts for the stations and RCPs scenarios analysed in this work an increase in the intensity of extreme rainfalls of short duration with long return periods.

Estimation of extremely high runoff of the Sel\\vska Sora River after the storm of 18 September 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobold, M.; Brilly, M.

2009-04-01

Extremely high runoff occurred on 18 September 2007 on the Sel\\vska Sora catchment with drainage area of 104 km2 due to the heavy and intense rainfall which fell in just a few hours. The catchment lies in the north-western hilly part of Slovenia where precipitation started early in the morning. Meteorological forecast predicted precipitation for the September 18, but not in the quantity and intensity as it happened. More than 300 mm of the daily sum of the rainfall was recorded on some rain gauging stations, but the amount of precipitation fell mainly within six hours. The precipitation rates reached up to 70 mm/h and 100 mm in 2 hours on the most affected area along Sel\\vska Sora river upstream the town of Železniki. High differences in the amount of precipitation were detected at small distances. Under the influence of the very intense precipitation streams from the catchments of northwest Slovenia started to rise very quickly. Flash floods caused destruction and enormous material damage, the most in villages Davča and Železniki where three people lost their lives. Unfortunately the equipment on the water gauging station at Železniki stopped working during the flood and the flood wave was not recorded entirely. The highest water level 551 cm was determined after the flood according to the flood trace. The peak discharge was estimated to approximately 300 m3/s by extrapolation of rating curve and it exceeded the highest discharge from the period of observation 1991-2006 two times. The WMS system and HEC-1 hydrological model was used for the simulation of the hydrograph. According to the modelling results the peak of flood wave is estimated to 278 m3/s, what means 2670 l/s/km2 of maximum specific runoff. The results of analysis give the cumulative areal precipitation for the Sel\\vska Sora catchment to Železniki 219 mm, while the effective precipitation which caused direct runoff is only 57 mm. The runoff coefficient is rather low considering the high rainfall intensities for the short periods of few hours. However, the spatial distribution of the rainfall in the area was highly variable and spatial positioning of rain gauges is obviously inadequate for proper representation of the actual spatial amount of rainfall. Regarding to small antecedent soil moisture and consequently low flows before flood event, the infiltration into the soil was very high. The geological structure of the catchment is not uniform; the northern part of the catchment is more permeable whereas the southern part is much less permeable leading to non-uniform hydrological response of the catchment. According to the meteorological and hydrological situation, the flash flood event in Železniki has typical characteristics which make the analysis of the flash flood events difficult, not even mentioning the possibilities to make a prediction of the occurrence of such event in advance.

Estimation and prediction of maximum daily rainfall at Sagar Island using best fit probability models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, S.; Choudhury, B. U.

2015-07-01

Sagar Island, setting on the continental shelf of Bay of Bengal, is one of the most vulnerable deltas to the occurrence of extreme rainfall-driven climatic hazards. Information on probability of occurrence of maximum daily rainfall will be useful in devising risk management for sustaining rainfed agrarian economy vis-a-vis food and livelihood security. Using six probability distribution models and long-term (1982-2010) daily rainfall data, we studied the probability of occurrence of annual, seasonal and monthly maximum daily rainfall (MDR) in the island. To select the best fit distribution models for annual, seasonal and monthly time series based on maximum rank with minimum value of test statistics, three statistical goodness of fit tests, viz. Kolmogorove-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson Darling test ( A 2 ) and Chi-Square test ( X 2) were employed. The fourth probability distribution was identified from the highest overall score obtained from the three goodness of fit tests. Results revealed that normal probability distribution was best fitted for annual, post-monsoon and summer seasons MDR, while Lognormal, Weibull and Pearson 5 were best fitted for pre-monsoon, monsoon and winter seasons, respectively. The estimated annual MDR were 50, 69, 86, 106 and 114 mm for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 25 years, respectively. The probability of getting an annual MDR of >50, >100, >150, >200 and >250 mm were estimated as 99, 85, 40, 12 and 03 % level of exceedance, respectively. The monsoon, summer and winter seasons exhibited comparatively higher probabilities (78 to 85 %) for MDR of >100 mm and moderate probabilities (37 to 46 %) for >150 mm. For different recurrence intervals, the percent probability of MDR varied widely across intra- and inter-annual periods. In the island, rainfall anomaly can pose a climatic threat to the sustainability of agricultural production and thus needs adequate adaptation and mitigation measures.

Numerical modeling of rainfall thresholds for shallow landsliding in the Seattle, Washington, area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Godt, Jonathan W.; McKenna, Jonathan P.

2008-01-01

The temporal forecasting of landslide hazard has typically relied on empirical relations between rainfall characteristics and landslide occurrence to identify conditions that may cause shallow landslides. Here, we describe an alternate, deterministic approach to define rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in the Seattle, Washington, area. This approach combines an infinite slope-stability model with a variably saturated flow model to determine the rainfall intensity and duration that leads to shallow failure of hillside colluvium. We examine the influence of variation in particle-size distribution on the unsaturated hydraulic properties of the colluvium by performing capillary-rise tests on glacial outwash sand and three experimental soils with increasing amounts of fine-grained material. Observations of pore-water response to rainfall collected as part of a program to monitor the near-surface hydrology of steep coastal bluffs along Puget Sound were used to test the numerical model results and in an inverse modeling procedure to determine the in situ hydraulic properties. Modeling results are given in terms of a destabilizing rainfall intensity and duration, and comparisons with empirical observations of landslide occurrence and triggering rainfall indicate that the modeling approach may be useful for forecasting landslide occurrence.

Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme L.; Tillery, Anne C.; Youberg, Ann M.

2017-01-01

Early warning of post-fire debris-flow occurrence during intense rainfall has traditionally relied upon a library of regionally specific empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds. Development of this library and the calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds often require several years of monitoring local rainfall and hydrologic response to rainstorms, a time-consuming approach where results are often only applicable to the specific region where data were collected. Here, we present a new, fully predictive approach that utilizes rainfall, hydrologic response, and readily available geospatial data to predict rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned locations in the western United States. Unlike the traditional approach to defining regional thresholds from historical data, the proposed methodology permits the direct calculation of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for areas where no such data exist. The thresholds calculated by this method are demonstrated to provide predictions that are of similar accuracy, and in some cases outperform, previously published regional intensity–duration thresholds. The method also provides improved predictions of debris-flow likelihood, which can be incorporated into existing approaches for post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment. Our results also provide guidance for the operational expansion of post-fire debris-flow early warning systems in areas where empirically defined regional rainfall intensity–duration thresholds do not currently exist.

Variability in the microcanonical cascades parameters among gauges of urban precipitation monitoring network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Licznar, Paweł; Rupp, David; Adamowski, Witold

2013-04-01

In the fall of 2008, Municipal Water Supply and Sewerage Company (MWSSC) in Warsaw began operating the first large precipitation monitoring network dedicated to urban hydrology in Poland. The process of establishing the network as well as the preliminary phase of its operation, raised a number of questions concerning optimal gauge location and density and revealed the urgent need for new data processing techniques. When considering the full-field precipitation as input to hydrodynamic models of stormwater and combined sewage systems, standard processing techniques developed previously for single gauges and concentrating mainly on the analysis of maximum rainfall rates and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves development were found inadequate. We used a multifractal rainfall modeling framework based on microcanonical multiplicative random cascades to analyze properties of Warsaw precipitation. We calculated breakdown coefficients (BDC) for the hierarchy of timescales from λ=1 (5-min) up to λ=128 (1280-min) for all 25 gauges in the network. At small timescales histograms of BDCs were strongly deformed due to the recording precision of rainfall amounts. A randomization procedure statistically removed the artifacts due to precision errors in the original series. At large timescales BDC values were sparse due to relatively short period of observations (2008-2011). An algorithm with a moving window was proposed to increase the number of BDC values at large timescales and to smooth their histograms. The resulting empirical BDC histograms were modeled by a theoretical "2N-B" distribution, which combined 2 separate normal (N) distributions and one beta (B) distribution. A clear evolution of BDC histograms from a 2N-B distribution for small timescales to a N-B distributions for intermediate timescales and finally to a single beta distributions for large timescales was observed for all gauges. Cluster analysis revealed close patterns of BDC distributions among almost all gauges and timescales with exception of two gauges located at the city limits (one gauge was located on the Okęcie airport). We evaluated the performance of the microcanonical cascades at disaggregating 1280-min (quasi daily precipitation totals) into 5-min rainfall data for selected gauges. Synthetic time series were analyzed with respect to their intermittency and variability of rainfall intensities and compared to observational series. We showed that microcanonical cascades models could be used in practice for generating synthetic rainfall time series suitable as input to urban hydrology models in Warsaw.

Is convective precipitation increasing? The case of Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llasat, M. C.; Marcos, R.; Turco, M.

2012-04-01

A recent work (Turco and Llasat, 2011) has been performed to analyse the trends of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003, calculated from a interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution. This work has showed that no general trends at a regional scale have been observed, considering the annual and the seasonal regional values, and only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern. Simultaneously, Llasat et al (2009, 2010) have showed an important increase of flash-flood events in the same region. Although aspects related with vulnerability, exposure and changes in uses of soil have been found as the main responsible of this increase, a major knowledge on the evolution of high rainfall events is mandatory. Heavy precipitation is usually associated to convective precipitation and therefore the analysis of the latter is a good indicator of it. Particularly, in Catalonia, funding was raised to define a parameter, designated as β, related with the greater or lesser convective character of the precipitation (Llasat, 2001). This parameter estimates the contribution of convective precipitation to total precipitation using 1-min or 5-min rainfall intensities usually estimated by rain gauges and it can be also analysed by means of the meteorological radar (Llasat et al, 2007). Its monthly distribution shows a maximum in August, followed by September, which are the months with the major number of flash-floods in Catalonia. This parameter also allows distinguishing between different kinds of precipitation events taking into account the degree of convective contribution. The main problem is the lack of long rainfall rate series that allow analysing trends in convective precipitation. The second one is related with its heterogeneous spatial and temporal distribution. To deal with both questions the 1-min rainfall intensity provided by the Jardí pluviograph (Barcelona, Spain) and the 5-min rainfall intensity from the SAIH network have been used. The first is situated in the Fabra observatory, at an altitude of 414 ma.s.l. and at a distance of 7.5 km from the sea, inland from the city of Barcelona. It started functioning in 1921 (Jardí, 1921), although only the series corresponding to the period 1927-1979 can be considered reliable (Burgueño et al, 1987), for this reason this series will be completed with information from other rain agues. The SAIH network from the Internal Basins of Catalonia is constituted by 126 rain gauges and provides information since 1996 (Llasat et al, 2007). Thanks to this information is possible to see that more than 70% of the population of Catalonia lives in regions where the convective contribution to the total rainfall between May and November is above 50%. Consequently, any change in its distribution can have an important social impact.

Estimation of debris flow critical rainfall thresholds by a physically-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papa, M. N.; Medina, V.; Ciervo, F.; Bateman, A.

2012-11-01

Real time assessment of debris flow hazard is fundamental for setting up warning systems that can mitigate its risk. A convenient method to assess the possible occurrence of a debris flow is the comparison of measured and forecasted rainfall with rainfall threshold curves (RTC). Empirical derivation of the RTC from the analysis of rainfall characteristics of past events is not possible when the database of observed debris flows is poor or when the environment changes with time. For landslides triggered debris flows, the above limitations may be overcome through the methodology here presented, based on the derivation of RTC from a physically based model. The critical RTC are derived from mathematical and numerical simulations based on the infinite-slope stability model in which land instability is governed by the increase in groundwater pressure due to rainfall. The effect of rainfall infiltration on landside occurrence is modelled trough a reduced form of the Richards equation. The simulations are performed in a virtual basin, representative of the studied basin, taking into account the uncertainties linked with the definition of the characteristics of the soil. A large number of calculations are performed combining different values of the rainfall characteristics (intensity and duration of event rainfall and intensity of antecedent rainfall). For each combination of rainfall characteristics, the percentage of the basin that is unstable is computed. The obtained database is opportunely elaborated to derive RTC curves. The methodology is implemented and tested on a small basin of the Amalfi Coast (South Italy).

Rainfall: State of the Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Testik, Firat Y.; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

Rainfall: State of the Science offers the most up-to-date knowledge on the fundamental and practical aspects of rainfall. Each chapter, self-contained and written by prominent scientists in their respective fields, provides three forms of information: fundamental principles, detailed overview of current knowledge and description of existing methods, and emerging techniques and future research directions. The book discusses • Rainfall microphysics: raindrop morphodynamics, interactions, size distribution, and evolution • Rainfall measurement and estimation: ground-based direct measurement (disdrometer and rain gauge), weather radar rainfall estimation, polarimetric radar rainfall estimation, and satellite rainfall estimation • Statistical analyses: intensity-duration-frequency curves, frequency analysis of extreme events, spatial analyses, simulation and disaggregation, ensemble approach for radar rainfall uncertainty, and uncertainty analysis of satellite rainfall products The book is tailored to be an indispensable reference for researchers, practitioners, and graduate students who study any aspect of rainfall or utilize rainfall information in various science and engineering disciplines.

On Rainfall Modification by Major Urban Areas. Part 1; Observations from Space-borne Rain Radar on TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Pierce, Harold; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This study represents one of the first published attempts to identify rainfall modification by urban areas using satellite-based rainfall measurements. Data from the first space-based rain-radar, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, are employed. Analysis of the data enables identification of rainfall patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas during the warm season. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage chances are relative to an upwind CONTROL area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area can exceed the mean value in the upwind CONTROL area by 48%-116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. These results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work will investi(yate hypothesized factors causing rainfall modification by urban areas. Additional work is also needed to provide more robust validation of space-based rain estimates near major urban areas. Such research has implications for urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment.

A satellite rainfall retrieval technique over northern Algeria based on the probability of rainfall intensities classification from MSG-SEVIRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazri, Mourad; Ameur, Soltane

2016-09-01

In this paper, an algorithm based on the probability of rainfall intensities classification for rainfall estimation from Meteosat Second Generation/Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (MSG-SEVIRI) has been developed. The classification scheme uses various spectral parameters of SEVIRI that provide information about cloud top temperature and optical and microphysical cloud properties. The presented method is developed and trained for the north of Algeria. The calibration of the method is carried out using as a reference rain classification fields derived from radar for rainy season from November 2006 to March 2007. Rainfall rates are assigned to rain areas previously identified and classified according to the precipitation formation processes. The comparisons between satellite-derived precipitation estimates and validation data show that the developed scheme performs reasonably well. Indeed, the correlation coefficient presents a significant level (r:0.87). The values of POD, POFD and FAR are 80%, 13% and 25%, respectively. Also, for a rainfall estimation of about 614 mm, the RMSD, Bias, MAD and PD indicate 102.06(mm), 2.18(mm), 68.07(mm) and 12.58, respectively.

Calibration and verification of a rainfall-runoff model and a runoff-quality model for several urban basins in the Denver metropolitan area, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindner-Lunsford, J. B.; Ellis, S.R.

1984-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey 's Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model--Version II was calibrated and verified for five urban basins in the Denver metropolitan area. Land-use types in the basins were light commerical, multifamily housing, single-family housing, and a shopping center. The overall accuracy of model predictions of peak flows and runoff volumes was about 15 percent for storms with rainfall intensities of less than 1 inch per hour and runoff volume of greater than 0.01 inch. Predictions generally were unsatisfactory for storm having a rainfall intensity of more than 1 inch per hour, or runoff of 0.01 inch or less. The Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model-Quality, a multievent runoff-quality model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, was calibrated and verified on four basins. The model was found to be most useful in the prediction of seasonal loads of constituents in the runoff resulting from rainfall. The model was not very accurate in the prediction of runoff loads of individual constituents. (USGS)

Climate Change Impact on Variability of Rainfall Intensity in Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worku, L. Y.

2015-12-01

Extreme rainfall events are major problems in Ethiopia with the resulting floods that usually could cause significant damage to agriculture, ecology, infrastructure, disruption to human activities, loss of property, loss of lives and disease outbreak. The aim of this study was to explore the likely changes of precipitation extreme changes due to future climate change. The study specifically focuses to understand the future climate change impact on variability of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency in Upper Blue Nile basin. Precipitations data from two Global Climate Models (GCMs) have been used in the study are HadCM3 and CGCM3. Rainfall frequency analysis was carried out to estimate quantile with different return periods. Probability Weighted Method (PWM) selected estimation of parameter distribution and L-Moment Ratio Diagrams (LMRDs) used to find the best parent distribution for each station. Therefore, parent distributions for derived from frequency analysis are Generalized Logistic (GLOG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Gamma & Pearson III (P3) parent distribution. After analyzing estimated quantile simple disaggregation model was applied in order to find sub daily rainfall data. Finally the disaggregated rainfall is fitted to find IDF curve and the result shows in most parts of the basin rainfall intensity expected to increase in the future. As a result of the two GCM outputs, the study indicates there will be likely increase of precipitation extremes over the Blue Nile basin due to the changing climate. This study should be interpreted with caution as the GCM model outputs in this part of the world have huge uncertainty.

In situ measurements of post-fire debris flows in southern California: Comparisons of the timing and magnitude of 24 debris-flow events with rainfall and soil moisture conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kean, J.W.; Staley, D.M.; Cannon, S.H.

2011-01-01

Debris flows often occur in burned steeplands of southern California, sometimes causing property damage and loss of life. In an effort to better understand the hydrologic controls on post-fire debris-flow initiation, timing and magnitude, we measured the flow stage, rainfall, channel bed pore fluid pressure and hillslope soil-moisture accompanying 24 debris flows recorded in five different watersheds burned in the 2009 Station and Jesusita Fires (San Gabriel and Santa Ynez Mountains). The measurements show substantial differences in debris-flow dynamics between sites and between sequential events at the same site. Despite these differences, the timing and magnitude of all events were consistently associated with local peaks in short duration (< = 30 min) rainfall intensity. Overall, debris-flow stage was best cross-correlated with time series of 5-min rainfall intensity, and lagged the rainfall by an average of just 5 min. An index of debris-flow volume was also best correlated with short-duration rainfall intensity, but found to be poorly correlated with storm cumulative rainfall and hillslope soil water content. Post-event observations of erosion and slope stability modeling suggest that the debris flows initiated primarily by processes related to surface water runoff, rather than shallow landslides. By identifying the storm characteristics most closely associated with post-fire debris flows, these measurements provide valuable guidance for warning operations and important constraints for developing and testing models of post-fire debris flows. copyright. 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Temporal sequencing of throughfall drop generation as revealed by use of a large-scale rainfall simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanko, K.; Levia, D. F., Jr.; Iida, S.; SUN, X.; Shinohara, Y.; Sakai, N.

2017-12-01

Scientists have been interested in throughfall drop size and its distribution because of its importance to soil erosion and the forest water balance. An indoor experiment was employed to deepen our understanding of throughfall drop generation processes to promote better management of forested ecosystems. The indoor experiment provides a unique opportunity to examine an array of constant rainfall intensities that are ideal conditions to pick up the effect of changing intensities and not found in the fields. Throughfall drop generation was examined for three species- Cryptomeria japonica D. Don (Japanese cedar), Chamaecyparis obtusa (Siebold & Zucc.) Endl. (Japanese cypress), and Zelkova serrata Thunb. (Japanese zelkova)- under both leafed and leafless conditions in the large-scale rainfall simulator in the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (Tsukuba, Japan) at varying rainfall intensities ranging from15 to 100 mm h-1. Drop size distributions of the applied rainfall and throughfall were measured simultaneously by 20 laser disdrometers. Utilizing the drop size dataset, throughfall was separated into three components: free throughfall, canopy drip, and splash throughfall. The temporal sequencing of the throughfall components were analyzed on a 1-min interval during each experimental run. The throughfall component percentage and drop size of canopy drip differed among tree species and rainfall intensities and by elapsed time from the beginning of the rainfall event. Preliminary analysis revealed that the time differences to produce branch drip as compared to leaf (or needle) drip was partly due to differential canopy wet-up processes and the disappearance of branch drips due to canopy saturation, leading to dissimilar throughfall drop size distributions beneath the various tree species examined. This research was supported by JSPS Invitation Fellowship for Research in Japan (Grant No.: S16088) and JSPS KAKENHI (Grant No.: JP15H05626).

On the stationarity of Floods in west African rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

NKA, B. N.; Oudin, L.; Karambiri, H.; Ribstein, P.; Paturel, J. E.

2014-12-01

West Africa undergoes a big change since the years 1970-1990, characterized by very low precipitation amounts, leading to low stream flows in river basins, except in the Sahelian region where the impact of human activities where pointed out to justify the substantial increase of floods in some catchments. More recently, studies showed an increase in the frequency of intense rainfall events, and according to observations made over the region, increase of flood events is also noticeable during the rainy season. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity on flood events is questionable and the reliability of flood evolution and climatic patterns is justified. In this work, we analyzed the trends of floods events for several catchments in the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of Burkina Faso. We used thirteen tributaries of large river basins (Niger, Nakambe, Mouhoun, Comoé) for which daily rainfall and flow data were collected from national hydrological and meteorological services of the country. We used Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests to detect trends and break points in the annual time series of 8 rainfall indices and the annual maximum discharge records. We compare the trends of precipitation indices and flood size records to analyze the possible causality link between floods size and rainfall pattern. We also analyze the stationary of the frequency of flood exceeding the ten year return period level. The samples were extracted by a Peak over threshold method and the quantification of change in flood frequency was assessed by using a test developed by Lang M. (1995). The results exhibit two principal behaviors. Generally speaking, no trend is detected on catchments annual maximum discharge, but positive break points are pointed out in a group of three right bank tributaries of the Niger river that are located in the sahelian region between 300mm to 650mm. These same catchments show as well an increase of the yearly number of flood greater than the ten year flood since 1980. However, there is no consistency between rain fall pattern and flood size pattern in the entire region.

How important is the spatiotemporal structure of a rainfall field when generating a streamflow hydrograph? An investigation using Reverse Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretzschmar, Ann; Tych, Wlodek; Beven, Keith; Chappell, Nick

2017-04-01

Flooding is the most widely occurring natural disaster affecting thousands of lives and businesses worldwide each year, and the size and frequency of flood-events are predicted to increase with climate change. The main input-variable for models used in flood prediction is rainfall. Estimating the rainfall input is often based on a sparse network of raingauges, which may or may not be representative of the salient rainfall characteristics responsible for generating of storm-hydrographs. A method based on Reverse Hydrology (Kretzschmar et al 2014 Environ Modell Softw) has been developed and is being tested using the intensively-instrumented Brue catchment (Southwest England) to explore the spatiotemporal structure of the rainfall-field (using 23 rain gauges over the 135.2 km2 basin). We compare how well the rainfall measured at individual gauges, or averaged over the basin, represent the rainfall inferred from the streamflow signal. How important is it to get the detail of the spatiotemporal rainfall structure right? Rainfall is transformed by catchment processes as it moves to streams, so exact duplication of the structure may not be necessary. 'True' rainfall estimated using 23 gauges / 135.2 km2 is likely to be a good estimate of the overall-catchment-rainfall, however, the integration process 'smears' the rainfall patterns in time, i.e. reduces the number of and lengthens rain-events as they travel across the catchment. This may have little impact on the simulation of stream-hydrographs when events are extensive across the catchment (e.g., frontal rainfall events) but may be significant for high-intensity, localised convective events. The Reverse Hydrology approach uses the streamflow record to infer a rainfall sequence with a lower time-resolution than the original input time-series. The inferred rainfall series is, however, able simulate streamflow as well as the observed, high resolution rainfall (Kretzschmar et al 2015 Hydrol Res). Most gauged catchments in the UK of a similar size would only have data available for 1 to 3 raingauges. The high density of the Brue raingauge network allows a good estimate of the 'True' catchment rainfall to be made and compared with data from an individual raingauge as if that was the only data available. In addition the rainfall from each raingauge is compared with rainfall inferred from streamflow using data from the selected individual raingauge, and also inferred from the full catchment network. The stochastic structure of the rainfall from all of these datasets is compared using a combination of traditional statistical measures, i.e., the first 4 moments of rainfall totals and its residuals; plus the number, length and distribution of wet and dry periods; rainfall intensity characteristics; and their ability to generate the observed stream hydrograph. Reverse Hydrology, which utilises information present in both the input rainfall and the output hydrograph, has provided a method of investigating the quality of the information each gauge adds to the catchment-average (Kretzschmar et al 2016 Procedia Eng.). Further, it has been used to ascertain how important reproducing the detailed rainfall structure really is, when used for flow prediction.

Large-scale assessment of soil erosion in Africa: satellites help to jointly account for dynamic rainfall and vegetation cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vrieling, Anton; Hoedjes, Joost C. B.; van der Velde, Marijn

2015-04-01

Efforts to map and monitor soil erosion need to account for the erratic nature of the soil erosion process. Soil erosion by water occurs on sloped terrain when erosive rainfall and consequent surface runoff impact soils that are not well-protected by vegetation or other soil protective measures. Both rainfall erosivity and vegetation cover are highly variable through space and time. Due to data paucity and the relative ease of spatially overlaying geographical data layers into existing models like USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation), many studies and mapping efforts merely use average annual values for erosivity and vegetation cover as input. We first show that rainfall erosivity can be estimated from satellite precipitation data. We obtained average annual erosivity estimates from 15 yr of 3-hourly TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data (1998-2012) using intensity-erosivity relationships. Our estimates showed a positive correlation (r = 0.84) with long-term annual erosivity values of 37 stations obtained from literature. Using these TMPA erosivity retrievals, we demonstrate the large interannual variability, with maximum annual erosivity often exceeding two to three times the mean value, especially in semi-arid areas. We then calculate erosivity at a 10-daily time-step and combine this with vegetation cover development for selected locations in Africa using NDVI - normalized difference vegetation index - time series from SPOT VEGETATION. Although we do not integrate the data at this point, the joint analysis of both variables stresses the need for joint accounting for erosivity and vegetation cover for large-scale erosion assessment and monitoring.

Rainstorms able to induce flash floods in a Mediterranean-climate region (Calabria, southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terranova, O. G.; Gariano, S. L.

2014-03-01

Heavy rainstorms often induce flash flooding, one of the natural disasters most responsible for damage to man-made infrastructure and loss of lives, adversely affecting also the opportunities for socio-economic development of Mediterranean Countries. The frequently dramatic damage of flash floods are often detected with sufficient accuracy by post-event surveys, but rainfall causing them are still only roughly characterized. With the aim of improving the understanding of the temporal structure and spatial distribution of heavy rainstorms in the Mediterranean context, a statistical analysis was carried out in Calabria (southern Italy) concerning rainstorms that mainly induced flash floods, but also shallow landslides and debris-flows. Thus a method is proposed - based on the overcoming of heuristically predetermined threshold values of cumulated rainfall, maximum intensity, and kinetic energy of the rainfall event - to select and characterize the rainstorms able to induce flash floods in the Mediterranean-climate Countries. Therefore the obtained (heavy) rainstorms were automatically classified and studied according to their structure in time, localization and extension. Rainfall-runoff watershed models can consequently benefit from the enhanced identification of design storms, with a realistic time structure integrated with the results of the spatial analysis. A survey of flash flood events recorded in the last decades provides a preliminary validation of the method proposed to identify the heavy rainstorms and synthetically describe their characteristics. The notable size of the employed sample, including data with a very detailed resolution in time, that relate to several rain gauges well-distributed throughout the region, give robustness to the obtained results.

Rainstorms able to induce flash floods in a Mediterranean-climate region (Calabria, southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terranova, O. G.; Gariano, S. L.

2014-09-01

Heavy rainstorms often induce flash flooding, one of the natural disasters most responsible for damage to man-made infrastructures and loss of lives, also adversely affecting the opportunities for socio-economic development of Mediterranean countries. The frequently dramatic damage of flash floods are often detected, with sufficient accuracy, by post-event surveys, but rainfall causing them are still only roughly characterized. With the aim of improving the understanding of the temporal structure and spatial distribution of heavy rainstorms in the Mediterranean context, a statistical analysis was carried out in Calabria (southern Italy) concerning rainstorms that mainly induced flash floods, but also shallow landslides and debris flows. Thus, a method is proposed - based on the overcoming of heuristically predetermined threshold values of cumulated rainfall, maximum intensity, and kinetic energy of the rainfall event - to select and characterize the rainstorms able to induce flash floods in the Mediterranean-climate countries. Therefore, the obtained (heavy) rainstorms were automatically classified and studied according to their structure in time, localization, and extension. Rainfall-runoff watershed models can consequently benefit from the enhanced identification of design storms, with a realistic time structure integrated with the results of the spatial analysis. A survey of flash flood events recorded in the last decades provides a preliminary validation of the method proposed to identify the heavy rainstorms and synthetically describe their characteristics. The notable size of the employed sample, including data with a very detailed resolution in time that relate to several rain gauges well-distributed throughout the region, gives robustness to the obtained results.

Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle as Observed by TRMM

PubMed Central

Leppert, Kenneth D.; Cecil, Daniel J.

2018-01-01

Previous work has indicated a clear, consistent diurnal cycle in rainfall and cold cloudiness coverage around tropical cyclones. This cycle may have important implications for structure and intensity changes of these storms and the forecasting of such changes. The goal of this paper is to use passive and active microwave measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR), respectively, to better understand the tropical cyclone diurnal cycle throughout a deep layer of a tropical cyclone’s clouds. The composite coverage by PR reflectivity ≥20 dBZ at various heights as a function of local standard time (LST) and radius suggests the presence of a diurnal signal for radii <500 km through a deep layer (2–10 km height) of the troposphere using 1998–2011 Atlantic tropical cyclones of at least tropical storm strength. The area covered by reflectivity ≥20 dBZ at radii 100–500 km peaks in the morning (0130–1030 LST) and reaches a minimum 1030–1930 LST. Radii between 300–500 km tend to reach a minimum in coverage closer to 1200 LST before reaching another peak at 2100 LST. The inner core (0–100 km) appears to be associated with a single-peaked diurnal cycle only at upper levels (8–10 km) with a maximum at 2230−0430 LST. The TMI rainfall composites suggest a clear diurnal cycle at all radii between 200 and 1000 km with peak rainfall coverage and rain rate occurring in the morning (0130−0730 LST). PMID:29371745

Impervious surfaces and sewer pipe effects on stormwater runoff temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabouri, F.; Gharabaghi, B.; Mahboubi, A. A.; McBean, E. A.

2013-10-01

The warming effect of the impervious surfaces in urban catchment areas and the cooling effect of underground storm sewer pipes on stormwater runoff temperature are assessed. Four urban residential catchment areas in the Cities of Guelph and Kitchener, Ontario, Canada were evaluated using a combination of runoff monitoring and modelling. The stormwater level and water temperature were monitored at 10 min interval at the inlet of the stormwater management ponds for three summers 2009, 2010 and 2011. The warming effect of the ponds is also studied, however discussed in detail in a separate paper. An artificial neural network (ANN) model for stormwater temperature was trained and validated using monitoring data. Stormwater runoff temperature was most sensitive to event mean temperature of the rainfall (EMTR) with a normalized sensitivity coefficient (Sn) of 1.257. Subsequent levels of sensitivity corresponded to the longest sewer pipe length (LPL), maximum rainfall intensity (MI), percent impervious cover (IMP), rainfall depth (R), initial asphalt temperature (AspT), pipe network density (PND), and rainfall duration (D), respectively. Percent impervious cover of the catchment area (IMP) was the key parameter that represented the warming effect of the paved surfaces; sensitivity analysis showed IMP increase from 20% to 50% resulted in runoff temperature increase by 3 °C. The longest storm sewer pipe length (LPL) and the storm sewer pipe network density (PND) are the two key parameters that control the cooling effect of the underground sewer system; sensitivity analysis showed LPL increase from 345 to 966 m, resulted in runoff temperature drop by 2.5 °C.

Vegetation response to rainfall seasonality and interannual variability in tropical dry forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Silva Souza, R. M.; Souza, E.; Antonino, A.; Montenegro, S.; Porporato, A. M.

2015-12-01

We analyzed the response of tropical dry forests to seasonal and interannual rainfall variability, focusing on the caatinga biome in semi-arid in Northeast Brazil. We selected four sites across a gradient of rainfall amount and seasonality and analyzed daily rainfall and biweekly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the period 2000-2014. The seasonal and interannual rainfall statistics were characterized using recently developed metrics describing duration, location, and intensity of wet season and compared them with those of NDVI time series and modelled soil moisture. A model of NDVI was also developed and forced by different rainfall scenarios (combination amount of rainfall and duration of wet season). The results show that the caatinga tends to have a more stable response characterized by longer and less variable growing seasons (of duration 3.1±0.1 months) compared to the rainfall wet seasons (2.0±0.5 months). Even for more extreme rainfall conditions, the ecosystem shows very little sensitivity to duration of wet season in relation to the amount of rainfall, however the duration of wet season is most evident for wetter sites. This ability of the ecosystem in buffering the interannual variability of rainfall is corroborated by the stability of the centroid location of the growing season compared to the wet season for all sites. The maximal biomass production was observed at intermediate levels of seasonality, suggesting a possible interesting trade-off in the effects of intensity (i.e., amount) and duration of the wet season on vegetation growth.

Precipitation Climatology over Mediterranean Basin from Ten Years of TRMM Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehta, Amita V.; Yang, Song

2008-01-01

Climatological features of mesoscale rain activities over the Mediterranean region between 5 W-40 E and 28 N-48 N are examined using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 and 2A25 rain products. The 3B42 rainrates at 3-hourly, 0.25 deg x 0.25 deg spatial resolution for the last 10 years (January 1998 to July 2007) are used to form and analyze the 5-day mean and monthly mean climatology of rainfall. Results show considerable regional and seasonal differences of rainfall over the Mediterranean Region. The maximum rainfall (3-5 mm/day) occurs over the mountain regions of Europe, while the minimum rainfall is observed over North Africa (approximately 0.5 mm/day). The main rainy season over the Mediterranean Sea extends from October to March, with maximum rainfall occurring during November-December. Over the Mediterranean Sea, an average rainrate of approximately 1-2 mm/day is observed, but during the rainy season there is 20% larger rainfall over the western Mediterranean Sea than that over the eastern Mediterranean Sea. During the rainy season, mesoscale rain systems generally propagate from west to east and from north to south over the Mediterranean region, likely to be associated with Mediterranean cyclonic disturbances resulting from interactions among large-scale circulation, orography, and land-sea temperature contrast.

Rainfall Modification by Urban Areas: New Perspectives from TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Pierce, Harold F.; Negri, Andrew

2002-01-01

Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) were employed to identify warm season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48% - 116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work is extending the investigation to Phoenix, Arizona, an arid U.S. city, and several international cities like Mexico City, Johannesburg, and Brasilia. The study establishes the possibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.

Spatio-temporal trends of rainfall across Indian river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisht, Deepak Singh; Chatterjee, Chandranath; Raghuwanshi, Narendra Singh; Sridhar, Venkataramana

2018-04-01

Daily gridded high-resolution rainfall data of India Meteorological Department at 0.25° spatial resolution (1901-2015) was analyzed to detect the trend in seasonal, annual, and maximum cumulative rainfall for 1, 2, 3, and 5 days. The present study was carried out for 85 river basins of India during 1901-2015 and pre- and post-urbanization era, i.e., 1901-1970 and 1971-2015, respectively. Mann-Kendall ( α = 0.05) and Theil-Sen's tests were employed for detecting the trend and percentage of change over the period of time, respectively. Daily extreme rainfall events, above 95 and 99 percentile threshold, were also analyzed to detect any trend in their magnitude and number of occurrences. The upward trend was found for the majority of the sub-basins for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-day maximum cumulative rainfall during the post-urbanization era. The magnitude of extreme threshold events is also found to be increasing in the majority of the river basins during the post-urbanization era. A 30-year moving window analysis further revealed a widespread upward trend in a number of extreme threshold rainfall events possibly due to urbanization and climatic factors. Overall trends studied against intra-basin trend across Ganga basin reveal the mixed pattern of trends due to inherent spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, therefore, highlighting the importance of scale for such studies.

Accessing the capability of TRMM 3B42 V7 to simulate streamflow during extreme rain events: Case study for a Himalayan River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Brijesh; Lakshmi, Venkat

2018-03-01

The paper examines the quality of Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 V7 precipitation product to simulate the streamflow using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for various rainfall intensities over the Himalayan region. The SWAT model has been set up for Gandak River Basin with 41 sub-basins and 420 HRUs. Five stream gauge locations are used to simulate the streamflow for a time span of 10 years (2000-2010). Daily streamflow for the simulation period is collected from Central Water Commission (CWC), India and Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Nepal. The simulation results are found good in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) {>}0.65, coefficient of determination (R2) {>}0.67 and Percentage Bias (PBIAS){<}15%, at each stream gauge sites. Thereafter, we have calculated the PBIAS and RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) statistics between TRMM simulated and observed streamflow for various rainfall intensity classes, viz., light ({<}7.5 mm/d), moderate (7.5 to 35.4 mm/d), heavy (35.5 to 124.4 mm/d) and extremely heavy ({>}124.4 mm/d). The PBIAS and RSR show that TRMM simulated streamflow is suitable for moderate to heavy rainfall intensities. However, it does not perform well for light- and extremely-heavy rainfall intensities. The finding of the present work is useful for the problems related to water resources management, irrigation planning and hazard analysis over the Himalayan regions.

Process-based rainfall interception by small trees in Northern China: The effect of rainfall traits and crown structure characteristics

Treesearch

Xiang Li; Qingfu Xiao; Jianzhi Niu; Salli Dymond; Natalie S. van Doorn; Xinxiao Yu; Baoyuan Xie; Xizhi Lv; Kebin Zhang; Jiao Li

2016-01-01

Rainfall interception by a tree's crown is one of the most important hydrological processes in an ecosystem, yet the mechanisms of interception are not well understood. A process-based experiment was conducted under five simulated rainfall intensities (from 10 to 150 mm h−1) to directly quantify tree crown interception and examine the effect...

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

2015-04-01

To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a regional level. This is done for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy, i.e. the Flumendosa catchment, using climate model rainfall and atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com). In doing so, we split the historical rainfall record of mean areal precipitation (MAP) in 15-year calibration and 45-year validation periods, and compare the historical rainfall statistics to those obtained from: a) Q-Q corrected climate model rainfall products, and b) synthetic rainfall series generated by the suggested downscaling scheme. To our knowledge, this is the first time that climate model rainfall and statistically downscaled precipitation are compared to catchment-averaged MAP at a daily resolution. The obtained results are promising, since the proposed downscaling scheme is more accurate and robust in reproducing a number of historical rainfall statistics, independent of the climate model used and the length of the calibration period. This is particularly the case for the yearly rainfall maxima, where direct statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs shows increased sensitivity to the length of the calibration period and the climate model used. The robustness of the suggested downscaling scheme in modeling rainfall extremes at a daily resolution, is a notable feature that can effectively be used to assess hydrologic risk at a regional level under changing climatic conditions. Acknowledgments The research project is implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General Secretariat for Research and Technology), and is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Greek State. CRS4 highly acknowledges the contribution of the Sardinian regional authorities.

Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

2017-04-01

This study explores the potential added value from including loss and damage data to understand the risks from high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation events. Projected increases in these events are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows, and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to this, not only are extreme events rare, but such small-scale events are likely to be underreported where they do not coincide with the observation network. Reports of private loss and damage on a local administrative unit scale (LAU 2 level) are used to explore the relationship between observed rainfall events and damages reportedly related to hydro-meteorological processes. With 480 Austrian municipalities located within our south-eastern Alpine study region, the damage data are available on a much smaller scale than the available rainfall data. Precipitation is recorded daily at 185 gauges and 52% of these stations additionally deliver sub-hourly rainfall information. To obtain physically plausible information, damage and rainfall data are grouped and analyzed on a catchment scale. The data indicate that rainfall intensities are higher on days that coincide with a damage claim than on days for which no damage was reported. However, approximately one third of the damages related to hydro-meteorological hazards were claimed on days for which no rainfall was recorded at any gauge in the respective catchment. Our goal is to assess whether these events indicate potential extreme events missing in the observations. Damage always is a consequence of an asset being exposed and susceptible to a hazardous process, and naturally, many factors influence whether an extreme rainfall event causes damage. We set up a statistical model to test whether the relationship between extreme rainfall events and damages is robust enough to estimate a potential underrepresentation of high intensity rainfall events in ungauged areas. Risk-relevant factors of socio-economic vulnerability, land cover, streamflow data, and weather type information are included to improve and sharpen the analysis. Within this study, we first aim to identify which rainfall events are most damaging and which factors affect the damages - seen as a proxy for the vulnerability - related to summer convective rainfall extremes in different catchment types. Secondly, we aim to detect potentially unreported damaging rainfall events and estimate the likelihood of such cases. We anticipate this damage perspective on summertime extreme convective precipitation to be beneficial for risk assessment, uncertainty management, and decision making with respect to weather and climate extremes on the regional-to-local level.

Changing pattern of natural hazards due to extreme hydro-meteorological conditions (Apulia, southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polemio, Maurizio; Lonigro, Teresa

2013-04-01

Recent international researches have underlined the evidences of climate changes throughout the world. Among the consequences of climate change, there is the increase in the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters, such as droughts, windstorms, heat waves, landslides, floods and secondary floods (i.e. rapid accumulation or pounding of surface water with very low flow velocity). The Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) can be defined as the occurrence of one or more simultaneous aforementioned phenomena causing damages. They represent a serious problem, especially in DHE-prone areas with growing urbanisation. In these areas the increasing frequency of extreme hydrological events could be related to climate variations and/or urban development. The historical analysis of DHEs can support decision making and land-use planning, ultimately reducing natural risks. The paper proposes a methodology, based on both historical and time series approaches, used for describing the influence of climatic variability on the number of phenomena observed. The historical approach is finalised to collect phenomenon historical data. The historical flood and landslide data are important for the comprehension of the evolution of a study area and for the estimation of risk scenarios as a basis for civil protection purposes. Phenomenon historical data is useful for expanding the historical period of investigation in order to assess the occurrence trend of DHEs. The time series approach includes the collection and the statistical analysis of climatic and rainfall data (monthly rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, and temperature data together with the annual maximum of short-duration rainfall data, from 1 hour to 5 days), which are also used as a proxy for floods and landslides. The climatic and rainfall data are useful to characterise the climate variations and trends and to roughly assess the effects of these trends on river discharge and on the triggering of landslides. The time series approach is completed by tools to analyse simultaneously all data types. The methodology was tested considering a selected Italian region (Apulia, southern Italy). The data were collected in two databases: a damaging hydrogeological event database (1186 landslides and floods since 1918) and a climate database (from 1877; short-duration rainfall from 1921). A statistically significant decreasing trend of rainfall intensity and an increasing trend of temperature, landslides, and DHEs were observed. A generalised decreasing trend of short-duration rainfall was observed. If there is not an evident relationship between climate variability and the variability of DHE occurrences, the role of anthropogenic modifications (increasing use or misuse of flood- and landslide-prone areas) could be hypothesized to justify the increasing occurrences of floods and landslides.. This study identifies the advantages of a simplifying approach to reduce the intrinsic complexities of the spatial-temporal analysis of climate variability, permitting the simultaneous analysis of the modification of flood and landslide occurrences.

Assessing the seasonal variability of ephemeral gully erosion using high-frequency monitoring: case study in a fully cultivated catchment (The Pommeroye, Northern France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patault, E.; Alary, C.; Franke, C.; Gauthier, A.; Abriak, N. E.

2017-12-01

Gully erosion results in on-site and off-site problems including the loss of cultivated soils, the silting of riverbeds and dams as well as infrastructure and property damage by muddy floods. Regions of intensive agricultural production situated on the European loess belt are particularly affected. Recently a growing interest has focused on ephemeral gullies since there have been recognized as a major contributor to the sediment yield in small agricultural catchment in this area. The aims of this case study are (i) to quantify the sediment yield transported by ephemeral gullies, (ii) to identify parameters that control the function of the hydro-sedimentary response and (iii) to evaluate the influence of seasonal variability on the ephemeral gully erosion. For this study a high-frequency monitoring station was implemented. For each flood event, 8 variables related to hydro-sedimentary and rainfall dynamics are calculated and the relationships between these variables are analyzed using the Pearson correlation matrix and Principal Component Analysis. During the first year of monitoring (03/2016-03/2017), 22 flood events were recorded of which 75% occurred in spring and winter. The specific sediment yield was evaluated to 30 t km-2 yr-1 which is conventional for the study region but the results show a highly variable seasonal distribution; 90% of the sedimentary transfer occurred in winter and autumn. The main reasons were a high cumulative rainfall and a long duration for the events. The maximum suspended sediment concentration at the catchment outlet was observed in spring, likely due to maximum rainfall intensities in that season. Also, a huge variability between the events is observed; e.g. one exceptional rain storm in 11/2016 represents 45% of the total sediment yield of the study period. For the monitored 22 events, 2 different types of hysteresis behavior were observed: (i) clockwise and (ii) complex. In winter, only clockwise hysteresis was observed. These results suggest that other factors have to be considered to better explain the variability of gully erosion, such as the soil surface characteristics (crop cover, crusting stage, roughness). A monitoring of these parameters on experimental plots is in progress.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Jin -Ho

Amazon rainfall is subject to year-to-year fluctuation resulting in drought and flood in various intensities. A major climatic driver of the interannual variation of the Amazon rainfall is El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Also, the Sea Surface Temperature over the Atlantic Ocean is identified as an important climatic driver on the Amazon water cycle. Previously, observational datasets were used to support the Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall. Furthermore, it is found that multiple global climate models do reproduce the Atlantic-Amazon link robustly. However, there exist differences in rainfall response, which primarily depends on the climatological rainfall amount.

Full-scale physical model of landslide triggering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lora, M.; Camporese, M.; Salandin, P.

2013-12-01

Landslide triggering induced by high-intensity rainfall infiltration in hillslopes is a complex phenomenon that involves hydrological processes operating at different spatio-temporal scales. Empirical methods give rough information about landslide-prone areas, without investigating the theoretical framework needed to achieve an in-depth understanding of the involved physical processes. In this study, we tackle this issue through physical experiments developed in an artificial hillslope realized in the Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering of the University of Padua. The structure consists of a reinforced concrete box containing a soil prism with the following maximum dimensions: 3.5 m high, 6 m long, and 2 m wide. In order to analyze and examine the triggered failure state, the experiments are carried out with intensive monitoring of pore water pressure and moisture content response. Subsurface monitoring instruments are installed at several locations and depths to measure downward infiltration and/or a rising groundwater table. We measure the unsaturated soil water pressure as well as positive pore pressures preceding failure in each experiments with six tensiometers. The volumetric water content is determined through six Time Domain Reflectometry probes. Two pressure transducers are located in observation wells to determine the position of the water table in time. Two stream gauges are positioned at the toeslope, for measuring both runoff and subsurface outflow. All data are collected and recorded by an acquisition data system from Campbell Scientific. The artificial hillslope is characterized by well-known and controlled conditions, which are designed to reproduce an ideal set-up susceptible to heavy rainfall landslide. The hydrologic forcing is generated by a rainfall simulator realized with nozzles from Sprying System and. specifically designed to produce a spatially uniform rainfall of intensity ranging from 50 to 150 mm/h. The aim of our experiments is to reproduce the instability trigger that occurs in saturated or partially unsaturated conditions depending on the specific characteristics of the soil and its initial conditions; the retention curve of fine sand and the initial porosity are taken into account to highlight the hydrological condition of the surface layer during the trigger occurrence. Through our experimental setup we can investigate the succession of phases and their magnitude that cause the landslide trigger, in order to understand the instability mechanism that heavy rainfall can induce in fine sandy hillslopes. Particular attention is given on the role of water pressure head, not only with respect to the violation of Coulomb failure within a sloping soil, but also with respect to the subsequent deformation that involves the upper hillslope layers. In particular, we report here on the characterization of the sandy terrain used in the experiments and the preliminary results, together with a first discussion of the observed data.

Eddy-induced salinity pattern in the North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, H.; Ebuchi, N.; Ueno, H.; Ishiyama, H.; Matsumura, Y.

2017-12-01

This research examines spatio-temporal behavior of sea surface salinity (SSS) after intense rainfall events using observed data from Aquarius. Aquarius SSS in the North Pacific reveals one notable event in which SSS is locally freshened by intense rainfall. Although SSS pattern shortly after the rainfall reflects atmospheric pattern, its final form reflects ocean dynamic structure; an anticyclonic eddy. Since this anticyclonic eddy was located at SSS front created by precipitation, this eddy stirs the water in a clockwise direction. This eddy stirring was visible for several months. It is expected horizontal transport by mesoscale eddies would play significant role in determining upper ocean salinity structure.

The impact of environmental factors on marine turtle stranding rates

PubMed Central

Flint, Mark; Limpus, Colin J.; Mills, Paul C.

2017-01-01

Globally, tropical and subtropical regions have experienced an increased frequency and intensity in extreme weather events, ranging from severe drought to protracted rain depressions and cyclones, these coincided with an increased number of marine turtles subsequently reported stranded. This study investigated the relationship between environmental variables and marine turtle stranding. The environmental variables examined in this study, in descending order of importance, were freshwater discharge, monthly mean maximum and minimum air temperatures, monthly average daily diurnal air temperature difference and rainfall for the latitudinal hotspots (-27°, -25°, -23°, -19°) along the Queensland coast as well as for major embayments within these blocks. This study found that marine turtle strandings can be linked to these environmental variables at different lag times (3–12 months), and that cumulative (months added together for maximum lag) and non-cumulative (single month only) effects cause different responses. Different latitudes also showed different responses of marine turtle strandings, both in response direction and timing.Cumulative effects of freshwater discharge in all latitudes resulted in increased strandings 10–12 months later. For latitudes -27°, -25° and -23° non-cumulative effects for discharge resulted in increased strandings 7–12 months later. Latitude -19° had different results for the non-cumulative bay with strandings reported earlier (3–6 months). Monthly mean maximum and minimum air temperatures, monthly average daily diurnal air temperature difference and rainfall had varying results for each examined latitude. This study will allow first responders and resource managers to be better equipped to deal with increased marine turtle stranding rates following extreme weather events. PMID:28771635

High frequency monitoring of pesticides in runoff water to improve understanding of their transport and environmental impacts.

PubMed

Lefrancq, Marie; Jadas-Hécart, Alain; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Landry, David; Payraudeau, Sylvain

2017-06-01

Rainfall-induced peaks in pesticide concentrations can occur rapidly. Low frequency sampling may therefore largely underestimate maximum pesticide concentrations and fluxes. Detailed storm-based sampling of pesticide concentrations in runoff water to better predict pesticide sources, transport pathways and toxicity within the headwater catchments is lacking. High frequency monitoring (2min) of seven pesticides (Dimetomorph, Fluopicolide, Glyphosate, Iprovalicarb, Tebuconazole, Tetraconazole and Triadimenol) and one degradation product (AMPA) were assessed for 20 runoff events from 2009 to 2012 at the outlet of a vineyard catchment in the Layon catchment in France. The maximum pesticide concentrations were 387μgL -1 . Samples from all of the runoff events exceeded the legal limit of 0.1μgL -1 for at least one pesticide (European directive 2013/39/EC). High resolution sampling used to detect the peak pesticide levels revealed that Toxic Units (TU) for algae, invertebrates and fish often exceeded the European Uniform principles (25%). The point and average (time or discharge-weighted) concentrations indicated up to a 30- or 4-fold underestimation of the TU obtained when measuring the maximum concentrations, respectively. This highlights the important role of sampling methods for assessing peak exposure. High resolution sampling combined with concentration-discharge hysteresis analyses revealed that clockwise responses were predominant (52%), indicating that Hortonian runoff is the prevailing surface runoff trigger mechanism in the study catchment. The hysteresis patterns for suspended solids and pesticides were highly dynamic and storm- and chemical-dependent. Intense rainfall events induced stronger C-Q hysteresis (magnitude). This study provides new insights into the complexity of pesticide dynamics in runoff water and highlights the ability of hysteresis analysis to improve understanding of pesticide supply and transport. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rainfall and Erosion Response Following a Southern California Wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wohlgemuth, P. M.; Robichaud, P. R.; Brown, R. E.

2011-12-01

Wildfire renders landscapes susceptible to flooding and accelerated surface erosion. Consumption of the vegetation canopy and the litter or duff layer removes resistances to the agents of erosion. Moreover, changes in soil properties can restrict infiltration, increasing the effectiveness of the driving forces of rainsplash and surface runoff. However, it is unclear whether surface erosion varies linearly with rainfall amounts and intensities or if thresholds exist beyond which erosion increases in a different trajectory. The Santiago Fire burned over 11000 ha in northeastern Orange County, California in October 2007. The burn area consists of a deeply dissected mountain block underlain by sedimentary and metamorphic rocks that produce erosive soils. Regional erosion and sediment transport is triggered by winter cyclonic storms. Recording raingages were deployed across a vertical gradient within the burned area and silt fences were constructed to monitor hillslope erosion. During the study period initial storms were characterized by moderate rainfall (amounts less than 25 mm with peak 10-minute intensities of less than 10 mm per hr). Surface erosion was concomitantly minor, less than 0.4 Mg per ha. However, an unusual thunderstorm in late May 2008 produced spatially variable rainfall and consequent surface erosion across the study area. The raingage at a lower elevation site measured 41.4 mm of rain for this storm with a peak 10-minute intensity of 81 mm per hr. The silt fences were overtopped, yielding a minimum value of 18.5 Mg per ha. In contrast, the raingage at an upper elevation site recorded 19.6 mm of rain with a peak 10-minute intensity of 50 mm per hr. Surface erosion in the higher elevation sites was negligible (0.1 Mg per ha). Subsequently, individual storms exceeded 100 mm of rainfall but peak 10-minute intensities never approached those of the May thunderstorm. Erosion was moderate (mostly less than 5 Mg per ha), albeit influenced by the presence of regrowing vegetation. We therefore believe that surface erosion in the immediate postfire environment is more related to storm intensity than rainfall amount. Even allowing for site-to-site differences and site changes over the first postfire winter season, it is clear that some threshold in erosion response was crossed at the lower elevation sites during the May 2008 thunderstorm. We suggest that this represents a threshold of peak 10-minute intensity of between 50 and 80 mm per hr.

A laboratory assessment of the measurement accuracy of weighing type rainfall intensity gauges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colli, M.; Chan, P. W.; Lanza, L. G.; La Barbera, P.

2012-04-01

In recent years the WMO Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation (CIMO) fostered noticeable advancements in the accuracy of precipitation measurement issue by providing recommendations on the standardization of equipment and exposure, instrument calibration and data correction as a consequence of various comparative campaigns involving manufacturers and national meteorological services from the participating countries (Lanza et al., 2005; Vuerich et al., 2009). Extreme events analysis is proven to be highly affected by the on-site RI measurement accuracy (see e.g. Molini et al., 2004) and the time resolution of the available RI series certainly constitutes another key-factor in constructing hyetographs that are representative of real rain events. The OTT Pluvio2 weighing gauge (WG) and the GEONOR T-200 vibrating-wire precipitation gauge demonstrated very good performance under previous constant flow rate calibration efforts (Lanza et al., 2005). Although WGs do provide better performance than more traditional Tipping Bucket Rain gauges (TBR) under continuous and constant reference intensity, dynamic effects seem to affect the accuracy of WG measurements under real world/time varying rainfall conditions (Vuerich et al., 2009). The most relevant is due to the response time of the acquisition system and the derived systematic delay of the instrument in assessing the exact weight of the bin containing cumulated precipitation. This delay assumes a relevant role in case high resolution rain intensity time series are sought from the instrument, as is the case of many hydrologic and meteo-climatic applications. This work reports the laboratory evaluation of Pluvio2 and T-200 rainfall intensity measurements accuracy. Tests are carried out by simulating different artificial precipitation events, namely non-stationary rainfall intensity, using a highly accurate dynamic rainfall generator. Time series measured by an Ogawa drop counter (DC) at a field test site located within the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) were aggregated at a 1-minute scale and used as reference for the artificial rain generation (Colli et al., 2012). The preliminary development and validation of the rainfall simulator for the generation of variable time steps reference intensities is also shown. The generator is characterized by a sufficiently short time response with respect to the expected weighing gauges behavior in order to ensure effective comparison of the measured/reference intensity at very high resolution in time.

Deterministic estimation of hydrological thresholds for shallow landslide initiation and slope stability models: case study from the Somma-Vesuvius area of southern Italy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baum, Rex L.; Godt, Jonathan W.; De Vita, P.; Napolitano, E.

2012-01-01

Rainfall-induced debris flows involving ash-fall pyroclastic deposits that cover steep mountain slopes surrounding the Somma-Vesuvius volcano are natural events and a source of risk for urban settlements located at footslopes in the area. This paper describes experimental methods and modelling results of shallow landslides that occurred on 5–6 May 1998 in selected areas of the Sarno Mountain Range. Stratigraphical surveys carried out in initiation areas show that ash-fall pyroclastic deposits are discontinuously distributed along slopes, with total thicknesses that vary from a maximum value on slopes inclined less than 30° to near zero thickness on slopes inclined greater than 50°. This distribution of cover thickness influences the stratigraphical setting and leads to downward thinning and the pinching out of pyroclastic horizons. Three engineering geological settings were identified, in which most of the initial landslides that triggered debris flows occurred in May 1998 can be classified as (1) knickpoints, characterised by a downward progressive thinning of the pyroclastic mantle; (2) rocky scarps that abruptly interrupt the pyroclastic mantle; and (3) road cuts in the pyroclastic mantle that occur in a critical range of slope angle. Detailed topographic and stratigraphical surveys coupled with field and laboratory tests were conducted to define geometric, hydraulic and mechanical features of pyroclastic soil horizons in the source areas and to carry out hydrological numerical modelling of hillslopes under different rainfall conditions. The slope stability for three representative cases was calculated considering the real sliding surface of the initial landslides and the pore pressures during the infiltration process. The hydrological modelling of hillslopes demonstrated localised increase of pore pressure, up to saturation, where pyroclastic horizons with higher hydraulic conductivity pinch out and the thickness of pyroclastic mantle reduces or is interrupted. These results lead to the identification of a comprehensive hydrogeomorphological model of susceptibility to initial landslides that links morphological, stratigraphical and hydrological conditions. The calculation of intensities and durations of rainfall necessary for slope instability allowed the identification of deterministic hydrological thresholds that account for uncertainty in properties and observed rainfall intensities.

Temperature and rainfall are related to fertility rate after spring artificial insemination in small ruminants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abecia, J. A.; Arrébola, F.; Macías, A.; Laviña, A.; González-Casquet, O.; Benítez, F.; Palacios, C.

2016-10-01

A total number of 1092 artificial inseminations (AIs) performed from March to May were documented over four consecutive years on 10 Payoya goat farms (36° N) and 19,392 AIs on 102 Rasa Aragonesa sheep farms (41° N) over 10 years. Mean, maximum, and minimum ambient temperatures, mean relative humidity, mean solar radiation, and total rainfall on each insemination day were recorded. Overall, fertility rates were 58 % in goats and 45 % in sheep. The fertility rates of the highest and lowest deciles of each of the meteorological variables indicated that temperature and rainfall had a significant effect on fertility in goats. Specifically, inseminations that were performed when mean (68 %), maximum (68 %), and minimum (66 %) temperatures were in the highest decile, and rainfall was in the lowest decile (59 %), had a significantly ( P < 0.0001) higher proportion of does that became pregnant than did the ewes in the lowest decile (56, 54, 58, and 49 %, respectively). In sheep, the fertility rates of the highest decile of mean (62 %), maximum (62 %), and minimum (52 %) temperature, RH (52 %), THI (53 %), and rainfall (45 %) were significantly higher ( P < 0.0001) than were the fertility rates among ewes in the lowest decile (46, 45, 45, 45, 46, and 43 %, respectively). In conclusion, weather was related to fertility in small ruminants after AI in spring. It remains to be determined whether scheduling the dates of insemination based on forecasted temperatures can improve the success of AI in goats and sheep.

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) over mountainous region of Cameron Highlands- Batang Padang Catchment of Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidek, L. M.; Mohd Nor, M. D.; Rakhecha, P. R.; Basri, H.; Jayothisa, W.; Muda, R. S.; Ahmad, M. N.; Razad, A. Z. Abdul

2013-06-01

The Cameron Highland Batang Padang (CHBP) catchment situated on the main mountain range of Peninsular Malaysia is of large economical importance where currently a series of three dams (Sultan Abu Bakar, Jor and Mahang) exist in the development of water resources and hydropower. The prediction of the design storm rainfall values for different return periods including PMP values can be useful to review the adequacy of the current spillway capacities of these dams. In this paper estimates of the design storm rainfalls for various return periods and also the PMP values for rainfall stations in the CHBP catchment have been computed for the three different durations of 1, 3 & 5 days. The maximum values for 1 day, 3 days and 5 days PMP values are found to be 730.08mm, 966.17mm and 969.0mm respectively at Station number 4513033 Gunung Brinchang. The PMP values obtained were compared with previous study results undertaken by NAHRIM. However, the highest ratio of 1 day, 3 day and 5 day PMP to highest observed rainfall are found to be 2.30, 1.94 and 1.82 respectively. This shows that the ratio tend to decrease as the duration increase. Finally, the temporal pattern for 1 day, 3day and 5 days have been developed based on observed extreme rainfall at station 4513033 Gunung Brinchang for the generation of Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) in dam break analysis.

Continuous Sub-daily Rainfall Simulation for Regional Flood Risk Assessment - Modelling of Spatio-temporal Correlation Structure of Extreme Precipitation in the Austrian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, J. L.; Nester, T.; Komma, J.; Bloeschl, G.

2017-12-01

Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, and spatial and temporal correlations is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks, by reproducing antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events, and joint probability of flood waves at confluences. In this work, a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is first modeled on a station basis as a multivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space. The spatial and temporal correlation structures are imposed in the Normal space, allowing for a different temporal autocorrelation parameter for each station, and simultaneously ensuring the positive-definiteness of the correlation matrix of the mAr errors. The Normal rainfall is then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space, with parameters varying monthly according to a sinusoidal function, in order to adapt to the observed rainfall seasonality. One of the main differences with the original model is the simulation time-step, reduced from 24h to 6h. Due to a larger availability of daily rainfall data, as opposite to sub-daily (e.g. hourly), the parameters of the Gamma distributions are calibrated to reproduce simultaneously a series of daily rainfall characteristics (mean daily rainfall, standard deviations of daily rainfall, and 24h intensity-duration-frequency [IDF] curves), as well as other aggregated rainfall measures (mean annual rainfall, and monthly rainfall). The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the catchment-averaged IDF curves aggregated at different temporal scales fit the measured ones. The rainfall model is used to generate 10.000 years of synthetic precipitation, fed into a rainfall-runoff model to derive the flood frequency in the Tirolean Alps in Austria. Given the number of generated events, the simulation framework is able to generate a large variety of rainfall patterns, as well as reproduce the variograms of relevant extreme rainfall events in the region of interest.

Rainfall and streamflow from small tree-covered and fern-covered and burned watersheds in Hawaii

Treesearch

H. W. Anderson; P. D. Duffy; Teruo Yamamoto

1966-01-01

Streamflow from two 30-acre watersheds near Honolulu was studied by using principal components regression analysis. Models using data on monthly, storm, and peak discharges were tested against several variables expressing amount and intensity of rainfall, and against variables expressing antecedent rainfall. Explained variation ranged from 78 to 94 percent. The...

Intensity-duration threshold of rainfall-triggered debris flows in the Wenchuan Earthquake affected area, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Xiaojun; Cui, Peng; Li, Yong; Ma, Li; Ge, Yonggang; Mahoney, William B.

2016-01-01

The Ms 8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake has greatly altered the rainfall threshold for debris flows in the affected areas. This study explores the local intensity-duration (I-D) relationship based on 252 post-earthquake debris flows. It was found that I = 5.25 D-0.76 accounts for more than 98% of the debris flow occurrences with rainfall duration between 1 and 135 h; therefore the curve defines the threshold for debris flows in the study area. This gives much lower thresholds than those proposed by the previous studies, suggesting that the earthquake has greatly decreased the thresholds in the past years. Moreover, the rainfall thresholds appear to increase annually in the period of 2008-2013, and present a logarithmic increasing tendency, indicating that the thresholds will recover in the future decades.

A monitor for continuous measurement of temperature, pH, and conductance of wet precipitation: Preliminary results from the Adirondack Mountains, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnsson, P.A.; Reddy, M.M.

1990-01-01

This report describes a continuous wet-only precipitation monitor designed by the U.S. Geological Survey to record variations in rainfall temperature, pH, and specific conductance at 1-min intervals over the course of storms. Initial sampling in the Adirondack Mountains showed that rainfall acidity varied over the course of summer storms, with low initial pH values increasing as storm intensity increased.This report describes a continuous wet-only precipitation monitor designed by the U.S. Geological Survey to record variations in rainfall temperature, pH, and specific conductance at 1-min intervals over the course of storms. Initial sampling in the Adirondack Mountains showed that rainfall acidity varied over the course of summer storms, with low initial pH values increasing as storm intensity increased.

Hydrologic system state at debris flow initiation in the Pitztal catchment, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mostbauer, Karin; Hrachowitz, Markus; Prenner, David; Kaitna, Roland

2017-04-01

Debris flows represent a severe hazard in mountain regions. Though significant effort has been made to forecast such events, the trigger conditions as well as the hydrologic disposition of a watershed at the time of debris flow occurrence are not well understood. To improve our knowledge on the connection between debris flow initiation and the hydrologic system, this study applies a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model, linking different system state variables such as soil moisture, snowmelt, or runoff with documented debris flow events in the Pitztal watershed, western Austria. The hydrologic modelling was performed on a daily basis between 1953 and 2012. High-intensity rainfall could be identified as the dominant trigger (31 out of 43 debris flows), while triggering exclusively by low-intensity, long-lasting rainfall was only observed in one single case. The remaining events were related to snowmelt; whether all of these events where triggered by rain-on-snow, or whether some of these events were actually triggered by snowmelt only, remains unclear since the occurrence of un- resp. underrecorded rainfall was detected frequently. The usage of a conceptual hydrological model for investigating debris flow initiation constitutes a novel approach in debris flow research and was assessed as very valuable. For future studies, it is recommended to evaluate also sub-daily information. As antecedent snowmelt was found to be much more important to debris flow initiation than antecedent rainfall, it might prove beneficial to include snowmelt in the commonly used rainfall intensity-duration thresholds.

Multi-model analysis of the Atlantic influence on Southern Amazon rainfall

DOE PAGES

Yoon, Jin -Ho

2015-12-07

Amazon rainfall is subject to year-to-year fluctuation resulting in drought and flood in various intensities. A major climatic driver of the interannual variation of the Amazon rainfall is El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Also, the Sea Surface Temperature over the Atlantic Ocean is identified as an important climatic driver on the Amazon water cycle. Previously, observational datasets were used to support the Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall. Furthermore, it is found that multiple global climate models do reproduce the Atlantic-Amazon link robustly. However, there exist differences in rainfall response, which primarily depends on the climatological rainfall amount.

Soil seal development under simulated rainfall: Structural, physical and hydrological dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armenise, Elena; Simmons, Robert W.; Ahn, Sujung; Garbout, Amin; Doerr, Stefan H.; Mooney, Sacha J.; Sturrock, Craig J.; Ritz, Karl

2018-01-01

This study delivers new insights into rainfall-induced seal formation through a novel approach in the use of X-ray Computed Tomography (CT). Up to now seal and crust thickness have been directly quantified mainly through visual examination of sealed/crusted surfaces, and there has been no quantitative method to estimate this important property. X-ray CT images were quantitatively analysed to derive formal measures of seal and crust thickness. A factorial experiment was established in the laboratory using open-topped microcosms packed with soil. The factors investigated were soil type (three soils: silty clay loam - ZCL, sandy silt loam - SZL, sandy loam - SL) and rainfall duration (2-14 min). Surface seal formation was induced by applying artificial rainfall events, characterised by variable duration, but constant kinetic energy, intensity, and raindrop size distribution. Soil porosities derived from CT scans were used to quantify the thickness of the rainfall-induced surface seals and reveal temporal seal micro-morphological variations with increasing rainfall duration. In addition, the water repellency and infiltration dynamics of the developing seals were investigated by measuring water drop penetration time (WDPT) and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity (Kun). The range of seal thicknesses detected varied from 0.6 to 5.4 mm. Soil textural characteristics and OM content played a central role in the development of rainfall-induced seals, with coarser soil particles and lower OM content resulting in thicker seals. Two different trends in soil porosity vs. depth were identified: i) for SL soil porosity was lowest at the immediate soil surface, it then increased constantly with depth till the median porosity of undisturbed soil was equalled; ii) for ZCL and SL the highest reduction in porosity, as compared to the median porosity of undisturbed soil, was observed in a well-defined zone of maximum porosity reduction c. 0.24-0.48 mm below the soil surface. This contrasting behaviour was related to different dynamics and processes of seal formation which depended on the soil properties. The impact of rainfall-induced surface sealing on the hydrological behaviour of soil (as represented by WDTP and Kun) was rapid and substantial: an average 60% reduction in Kun occurred for all soils between 2 and 9 min rainfall, and water repellent surfaces were identified for SZL and ZCL. This highlights that the condition of the immediate surface of agricultural soils involving rainfall-induced structural seals has a strong impact in the overall ability of soil to function as water reservoir.

The analysis of the possibility of using 10-minute rainfall series to determine the maximum rainfall amount with 5 minutes duration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaźmierczak, Bartosz; Wartalska, Katarzyna; Wdowikowski, Marcin; Kotowski, Andrzej

2017-11-01

Modern scientific research in the area of heavy rainfall analysis regarding to the sewerage design indicates the need to develop and use probabilistic rain models. One of the issues that remains to be resolved is the length of the shortest amount of rain to be analyzed. It is commonly believed that the best time is 5 minutes, while the least rain duration measured by the national services is often 10 or even 15 minutes. Main aim of this paper is to present the difference between probabilistic rainfall models results given from rainfall time series including and excluding 5 minutes rainfall duration. Analysis were made for long-time period from 1961-2010 on polish meteorological station Legnica. To develop best fitted to measurement rainfall data probabilistic model 4 probabilistic distributions were used. Results clearly indicates that models including 5 minutes rainfall duration remains more appropriate to use.

Rainwater runoff retention on an aged intensive green roof.

PubMed

Speak, A F; Rothwell, J J; Lindley, S J; Smith, C L

2013-09-01

Urban areas are characterised by large proportions of impervious surfaces which increases rainwater runoff and the potential for surface water flooding. Increased precipitation is predicted under current climate change projections, which will put further pressure on urban populations and infrastructure. Roof greening can be used within flood mitigation schemes to restore the urban hydrological balance of cities. Intensive green roofs, with their deeper substrates and higher plant biomass, are able to retain greater quantities of runoff, and there is a need for more studies on this less common type of green roof which also investigate the effect of factors such as age and vegetation composition. Runoff quantities from an aged intensive green roof in Manchester, UK, were analysed for 69 rainfall events, and compared to those on an adjacent paved roof. Average retention was 65.7% on the green roof and 33.6% on the bare roof. A comprehensive soil classification revealed the substrate, a mineral soil, to be in good general condition and also high in organic matter content which can increase the water holding capacity of soils. Large variation in the retention data made the use of predictive regression models unfeasible. This variation arose from complex interactions between Antecedant Dry Weather Period (ADWP), season, monthly weather trends, and rainfall duration, quantity and peak intensity. However, significantly lower retention was seen for high rainfall events, and in autumn, which had above average rainfall. The study period only covers one unusually wet year, so a longer study may uncover relationships to factors which can be applied to intensive roofs elsewhere. Annual rainfall retention for Manchester city centre could be increased by 2.3% by a 10% increase in intensive green roof construction. The results of this study will be of particular interest to practitioners implementing greenspace adaptation in temperate and cool maritime climates. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The partitioning of litter carbon during litter decomposition under different rainfall patterns: a laboratory study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, X.; Szlavecz, K. A.; Langley, J. A.; Pitz, S.; Chang, C. H.

2017-12-01

Quantifying litter C into different C fluxes during litter decomposition is necessary to understand carbon cycling under changing climatic conditions. Rainfall patterns are predicted to change in the future, and their effects on the fate of litter carbon are poorly understood. Soils from deciduous forests in Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC) in Maryland, USA were collected to reconstruct soil columns in the lab. 13C labeled tulip poplar leaf litter was used to trace carbon during litter decomposition. Top 1% and the mean of 15-minute historical precipitation data from nearby weather stations were considered as extreme and control rainfall intensity, respectively. Both intensity and frequency of rainfall were manipulated, while the total amount was kept constant. A pulse of CO2 efflux was detected right after each rainfall event in the soil columns with leaf litter. After the first event, CO2 efflux of the control rainfall treatment soils increased to threefold of the CO2 efflux before rain event and that of the extreme treatment soils increased to fivefold. However, in soils without leaf litter, CO2 efflux was suppressed right after rainfall events. After each rainfall event, the leaf litter contribution to CO2 efflux first showed an increase, decreased sharply in the following two days, and then stayed relatively constant. In soil columns with leaf litter, the order of cumulative CO2 efflux was control > extreme > intermediate. The order of cumulative CO2 efflux in the bare soil treatment was extreme > intermediate > control. The order of volume of leachate from different treatments was extreme > intermediate > control. Our initial results suggest that more intense rainfall events result in larger pulses of CO2, which is rarely measured in the field. Additionally, soils with and without leaf litter respond differently to precipitation events. This is important to consider in temperate regions where leaf litter cover changes throughout the year. Including the rainfall pattern as a parameter to the partitioning of litter carbon could help better project soil carbon cycling in the Mid-Atlantic region.

Impacts of the seasonal distribution of rainfall on vegetation productivity across the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenmin; Brandt, Martin; Tong, Xiaoye; Tian, Qingjiu; Fensholt, Rasmus

2018-01-01

Climate change in drylands has caused alterations in the seasonal distribution of rainfall including increased heavy-rainfall events, longer dry spells, and a shifted timing of the wet season. Yet the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in drylands is usually explained by annual-rainfall sums, disregarding the influence of the seasonal distribution of rainfall. This study tested the importance of rainfall metrics in the wet season (onset and cessation of the wet season, number of rainy days, rainfall intensity, number of consecutive dry days, and heavy-rainfall events) for growing season ANPP. We focused on the Sahel and northern Sudanian region (100-800 mm yr-1) and applied daily satellite-based rainfall estimates (CHIRPS v2.0) and growing-season-integrated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; MODIS) as a proxy for ANPP over the study period: 2001-2015. Growing season ANPP in the arid zone (100-300 mm yr-1) was found to be rather insensitive to variations in the seasonal-rainfall metrics, whereas vegetation in the semi-arid zone (300-700 mm yr-1) was significantly impacted by most metrics, especially by the number of rainy days and timing (onset and cessation) of the wet season. We analysed critical breakpoints for all metrics to test if vegetation response to changes in a given rainfall metric surpasses a threshold beyond which vegetation functioning is significantly altered. It was shown that growing season ANPP was particularly negatively impacted after > 14 consecutive dry days and that a rainfall intensity of ˜ 13 mm day-1 was detected for optimum growing season ANPP. We conclude that the number of rainy days and the timing of the wet season are seasonal-rainfall metrics that are decisive for favourable vegetation growth in the semi-arid Sahel and need to be considered when modelling primary productivity from rainfall in the drylands of the Sahel and elsewhere.

Landslides, floods and sinkholes in a karst environment: the 1-6 September 2014 Gargano event, southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinotti, Maria Elena; Pisano, Luca; Marchesini, Ivan; Rossi, Mauro; Peruccacci, Silvia; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Melillo, Massimo; Amoruso, Giuseppe; Loiacono, Pierluigi; Vennari, Carmela; Vessia, Giovanna; Trabace, Maria; Parise, Mario; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-03-01

In karst environments, heavy rainfall is known to cause multiple geohydrological hazards, including inundations, flash floods, landslides and sinkholes. We studied a period of intense rainfall from 1 to 6 September 2014 in the Gargano Promontory, a karst area in Puglia, southern Italy. In the period, a sequence of torrential rainfall events caused severe damage and claimed two fatalities. The amount and accuracy of the geographical and temporal information varied for the different hazards. The temporal information was most accurate for the inundation caused by a major river, less accurate for flash floods caused by minor torrents and even less accurate for landslides. For sinkholes, only generic information on the period of occurrence of the failures was available. Our analysis revealed that in the promontory, rainfall-driven hazards occurred in response to extreme meteorological conditions and that the karst landscape responded to the torrential rainfall with a threshold behaviour. We exploited the rainfall and the landslide information to design the new ensemble-non-exceedance probability (E-NEP) algorithm for the quantitative evaluation of the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides and of related geohydrological hazards. The ensemble of the metrics produced by the E-NEP algorithm provided better diagnostics than the single metrics often used for landslide forecasting, including rainfall duration, cumulated rainfall and rainfall intensity. We expect that the E-NEP algorithm will be useful for landslide early warning in karst areas and in other similar environments. We acknowledge that further tests are needed to evaluate the algorithm in different meteorological, geological and physiographical settings.

Reply to the comment on "Rainfall erosivity in Europe" by Auerswald et al.

PubMed

Panagos, Panos; Meusburger, Katrin; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Beguería, Santiago; Klik, Andreas; Rymszewicz, Anna; Michaelides, Silas; Olsen, Preben; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Rousseva, Svetla; Montanarella, Luca; Alewell, Christine

2015-11-01

Recently, in the Auerswald et al. (2015) comment on "Rainfall erosivity in Europe", 5 criticisms were addressed: i) the neglect of seasonal erosion indices, ii) the neglect of published studies and data, iii) the low temporal resolution of the data, especially of the maximum rain intensity, iv) the use of precipitation data instead of rain data and the subsequent deviation of the R-factor in Germany and Austria compared with previous studies, and v) the differences in considered time periods between countries. We reply as follows: (i) An evaluation of the seasonal erosion index at the European scale is, to our knowledge, not achievable at present with the available data but would be a future goal. Synchronous publication of the seasonal erosion index is not mandatory, specifically because seasonal soil loss ratios are not available at this scale to date. We are looking forward to the appropriate study by the authors of the comment, who assert that they have access to the required data. (ii) We discuss and evaluate relevant studies in our original work and in this reply; however, we cannot consider what is not available to the scientific community. (iii) The third point of critique was based on a misunderstanding by Auerswald et al. (2015), as we did indeed calculate the maximum intensity with the highest resolution of data available. (iv) The low R-factor values in Germany and the higher values in Austria compared with previous studies are not due to the involvement of snow but are rather due to a Pan-European interpolation. We argue that an interpolation across the borders of Austria creates a more reliable data set. (v) We agree that the use of a short time series or time series from different periods is generally a problem in all large-scale studies and requires improvement in the future. However, because this affects countries with a rather low variability of the R-factor in our study, we are confident that the overall results of the map are not biased. In conclusion, the Pan-European rainfall data compilation (REDES) was a great success and yielded data from 1541 stations with an average length of 17.1years and a temporal resolution of <60min. However, a Pan-European data collection will never be complete without the help and supply of data from its users. Thus, we invite the authors of the comment to share their data in the open REDES to help build even better rainfall-erosivity maps at regional or European scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Four Downscaling Techniques to Characterize Uncertainty in Updating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, L. M.; Samaras, C.; McGinnis, S. A.

2017-12-01

Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are a common input to urban drainage design, and are used to represent extreme rainfall in a region. As rainfall patterns shift into a non-stationary regime as a result of climate change, these curves will need to be updated with future projections of extreme precipitation. Many regions have begun to update these curves to reflect the trends from downscaled climate models; however, few studies have compared the methods for doing so, as well as the uncertainty that results from the selection of the native grid scale and temporal resolution of the climate model. This study examines the variability in updated IDF curves for Pittsburgh using four different methods for adjusting gridded regional climate model (RCM) outputs into station scale precipitation extremes: (1) a simple change factor applied to observed return levels, (2) a naïve adjustment of stationary and non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters, (3) a transfer function of the GEV parameters from the annual maximum series, and (4) kernel density distribution mapping bias correction of the RCM time series. Return level estimates (rainfall intensities) and confidence intervals from these methods for the 1-hour to 48-hour duration are tested for sensitivity to the underlying spatial and temporal resolution of the climate ensemble from the NA-CORDEX project, as well as, the future time period for updating. The first goal is to determine if uncertainty is highest for: (i) the downscaling method, (ii) the climate model resolution, (iii) the climate model simulation, (iv) the GEV parameters, or (v) the future time period examined. Initial results of the 6-hour, 10-year return level adjusted with the simple change factor method using four climate model simulations of two different spatial resolutions show that uncertainty is highest in the estimation of the GEV parameters. The second goal is to determine if complex downscaling methods and high-resolution climate models are necessary for updating, or if simpler methods and lower resolution climate models will suffice. The final results can be used to inform the most appropriate method and climate model resolutions to use for updating IDF curves for urban drainage design.

Assessing acid rain and climate effects on the temporal variation of dissolved organic matter in the unsaturated zone of a karstic system from southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Jin; Hu, Chaoyong; Wang, Miao; Li, Xiuli; Ruan, Jiaoyang; Zhu, Ying; Fairchild, Ian J.; Hartland, Adam

2018-01-01

Acid rain has the potential to significantly impact the quantity and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) leached from soil to groundwater. Yet, to date, the effects of acid rain have not been investigated in karstic systems, which are expected to strongly buffer the pH of atmospheric rainfall. This study presents a nine-year DOM fluorescence dataset from a karst unsaturated zone collected from two drip sites (HS4, HS6) in Heshang Cave, southern China between 2005 and 2014. Cross-correlograms show that fluorescence intensity of both dripwaters lagged behind rainfall by ∼1 year (∼11 months lag for HS4, and ∼13 months for HS6), whereas drip rates responded quite quickly to rainfall (0 months lag for HS4, and ∼3 months for HS6), based on optimal correlation coefficients. The rapid response of drip rates to rainfall is related to the change of reservoir head pressure in summer, associated with higher rainfall. In winter, low rainfall has a limited effect on head pressure, and drip rates gradually slow to a constant value associated with base flow from the overlying reservoir- this effect being most evident on inter-annual timescales (R2 = 0.80 for HS4 and R2 = 0.86 for HS6, n = 9, p < 0.01). We ascribed the ∼1 year lag of fluorescence intensity to the effect of the soil moisture deficit and the karst process on delaying water and solute transport. After eliminating the one year lag, the congruent seasonal pacing and amplitude between fluorescence intensity and rainfall observed suggests that the seasonality of fluorescence intensity was mainly controlled by the monsoonal rains which can govern the output of DOM from the soil, as well as the residence time of water in the unsaturated zone. On inter-annual timescales, a robust linear relationship between fluorescence intensity and annual (effective) precipitation amount (R2 = 0.86 for HS4 and R2 = 0.77 for HS6, n = 9, p < 0.01) was identified, implying that annual (effective) precipitation is the main determinant of DOM concentration in the aquifer. Conversely, the insensitivity of fluorescence intensity and fluorescence wavelength maxima to variations in the pH of local rainfall suggests that acid rain over the study period (∼pH 5.6 to ∼ 4.5) had no discernable effect on the quantity and quality of DOM in karst soil and soil solution, likely being strongly buffered by soil carbonates. Therefore, despite large increases in anthropogenic acid rain in recent Chinese history, hydrologic forcing is the predominant factor driving variations in DOM in karst aquifers.

Application of Radar-Based Accumulated Rainfall Products for Early Detection of Heavy Rainfall Occurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishiyama, K.; Wakimizu, K.; Yokota, I.; Tsukahara, K.; Moriyama, T.

2016-12-01

In Japan, river and debris flow disasters have been frequently caused by heavy rainfall occurrence under the influence of the activity of a stationary front and associated inflow of a large amount of moisture into the front. However, it is very difficult to predict numerically-based heavy rainfall and associated landslide accurately. Therefore, the use of meteorological radar information is required for enhancing decision-making ability to urge the evacuation of local residents by local government staffs prior to the occurrence of the heavy rainfall disaster. It is also desirable that the local residents acquire the ability to determine the evacuation immediately after confirming radar information by themselves. Actually, it is difficult for untrained local residents and local government staffs to easily recognize where heavy rainfall occurs locally for a couple of hours. This reason is that the image of radar echoes is equivalent to instant electromagnetic distribution measured per a couple of minutes, and the distribution of the radar echoes moves together with the movement of a synoptic system. Therefore, in this study, considering that the movement of radar echoes also may stop in a specific area if stationary front system becomes dominant, radar-based accumulated rainfall information is defined here. The rainfall product is derived by the integration of radar intensity measured every ten minutes during previous 1 hours. Using this product, it was investigated whether and how the radar-based accumulated rainfall displayed at an interval of ten minutes can be applied for early detection of heavy rainfall occurrence. The results are summarized as follows. 1) Radar-based accumulated rainfall products could confirm that some of stationary heavy rainfall systems had already appeared prior to disaster occurrence, and clearly identify the movement of heavy rainfall area. 2) Moreover, accumulated area of rainfall could be visually and easily identified, compared with time-series (movie) of real-time radar-based rainfall intensity. Therefore, the accumulated rainfall distribution provides effective information for early detection of heavy rainfall causing disasters through the training of local residents and local government staffs who have no meteorologically-technical knowledge.

Derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide in Sicily

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caracciolo, Domenico; Arnone, Elisa; Noto, Leonardo V.

2015-04-01

Rainfall is the primary trigger of shallow landslides that can cause fatalities, damage to properties and economic losses in many areas of the world. For this reason, determining the rainfall amount/intensity responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to mitigate the related risk and save lives. Efforts have been made in different countries to investigate triggering conditions in order to define landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. The rainfall thresholds are generally described by a functional relationship of power in terms of cumulated or intensity event rainfall-duration, whose parameters are estimated empirically from the analysis of historical rainfall events that triggered landslides. The aim of this paper is the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy, by focusing particularly on the role of the antecedent wet conditions. The creation of the appropriate landslide-rainfall database likely represents one of main efforts in this type of analysis. For this work, historical landslide events occurred in Sicily from 1919 to 2001 were selected from the archive of the Sistema Informativo sulle Catastrofi Idrogeologiche, developed under the project Aree Vulnerabili Italiane. The corresponding triggering precipitations were screened from the raingauges network in Sicily, maintained by the Osservatorio delle Acque - Agenzia Regionale per i Rifiuti e le Acque. In particular, a detailed analysis was carried out to identify and reconstruct the hourly rainfall events that caused the selected landslides. A bootstrapping statistical technique has been used to determine the uncertainties associated with the threshold parameters. The rainfall thresholds at different exceedance probability levels, from 1% to 10%, were defined in terms of cumulated event rainfall, E, and rainfall duration, D. The role of rainfall prior to the damaging events was taken into account by including in the analysis the rainfall fallen 6, 15 and 30 days before each landslide. The antecedent rainfall turned out to be particularly important in triggering landslides. The rainfall thresholds obtained for the Sicily were compared with the regional curves proposed by various authors confirming a good agreement with these.

Merging of rain gauge and radar data for urban hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berndt, Christian; Haberlandt, Uwe

2015-04-01

Urban hydrological processes are generally characterised by short response times and therefore rainfall data with a high resolution in space and time are required for their modelling. In many smaller towns, no recordings of rainfall data exist within the urban catchment. Precipitation radar helps to provide extensive rainfall data with a temporal resolution of five minutes, but the rainfall amounts can be highly biased and hence the data should not be used directly as a model input. However, scientists proposed several methods for adjusting radar data to station measurements. This work tries to evaluate rainfall inputs for a hydrological model regarding the following two different applications: Dimensioning of urban drainage systems and analysis of single event flow. The input data used for this analysis can be divided into two groups: Methods, which rely on station data only (Nearest Neighbour Interpolation, Ordinary Kriging), and methods, which incorporate station as well as radar information (Conditional Merging, Bias correction of radar data based on quantile mapping with rain gauge recordings). Additionally, rainfall intensities that were directly obtained from radar reflectivities are used. A model of the urban catchment of the city of Brunswick (Lower Saxony, Germany) is utilised for the evaluation. First results show that radar data cannot help with the dimensioning task of sewer systems since rainfall amounts of convective events are often overestimated. Gauges in catchment proximity can provide more reliable rainfall extremes. Whether radar data can be helpful to simulate single event flow depends strongly on the data quality and thus on the selected event. Ordinary Kriging is often not suitable for the interpolation of rainfall data in urban hydrology. This technique induces a strong smoothing of rainfall fields and therefore a severe underestimation of rainfall intensities for convective events.

The Role of Gravity Waves in the Formation and Organization of Clouds during TWPICE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reeder, Michael J.; Lane, Todd P.; Hankinson, Mai Chi Nguyen

2013-09-27

All convective clouds emit gravity waves. While it is certain that convectively-generated waves play important parts in determining the climate, their precise roles remain uncertain and their effects are not (generally) represented in climate models. The work described here focuses mostly on observations and modeling of convectively-generated gravity waves, using the intensive observations from the DoE-sponsored Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE), which took place in Darwin, from 17 January to 13 February 2006. Among other things, the research has implications the part played by convectively-generated gravity waves in the formation of cirrus, in the initiation and organization ofmore » further convection, and in the subgrid-scale momentum transport and associated large-scale stresses imposed on the troposphere and stratosphere. The analysis shows two groups of inertia-gravity waves are detected: group L in the middle stratosphere during the suppressed monsoon period, and group S in the lower stratosphere during the monsoon break period. Waves belonging to group L propagate to the south-east with a mean intrinsic period of 35 h, and have vertical and horizontal wavelengths of about 5-6 km and 3000-6000 km, respectively. Ray tracing calculations indicate that these waves originate from a deep convective region near Indonesia. Waves belonging to group S propagate to the south-south-east with an intrinsic period, vertical wavelength and horizontal wavelength of about 45 h, 2 km and 2000-4000 km, respectively. These waves are shown to be associated with shallow convection in the oceanic area within about 1000 km of Darwin. The intrinsic periods of high-frequency waves are estimated to be between 20-40 minutes. The high-frequency wave activity in the stratosphere, defined by mass-weighted variance of the vertical motion of the sonde, has a maximum following the afternoon local convection indicating that these waves are generated by local convection. The wave activity is strongest in the lower stratosphere below 22 km and, during the suppressed monsoon period, is modulated with a 3-4-day period. The concentration of the wave activity in the lower stratosphere is consistent with the properties of the environment in which these waves propagate, whereas its 3-4-day modulation is explained by the variation of the convection activity in the TWP-ICE domain. At low rainfall intensity the wave activity increases as rainfall intensity increases. At high values of rainfall intensity, however, the wave activity associated with deep convective clouds is independent of the rainfall intensity. The convection and gravity waves observed during TWP-ICE are simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. These simulations are compared with radiosonde observations described above and are used to determine some of the properties of convectively generated gravity waves. The gravity waves appear to be well simulated by the model. The model is used to explore the relationships between the convection, the gravity waves and cirrus.« less

Effect of initial conditions and of intra-event rainfall intensity variability on shallow landslide triggering return period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peres, David Johnny; Cancelliere, Antonino

2016-04-01

Assessment of shallow landslide hazard is important for appropriate planning of mitigation measures. Generally, return period of slope instability is assumed as a quantitative metric to map landslide triggering hazard on a catchment. The most commonly applied approach to estimate such return period consists in coupling a physically-based landslide triggering model (hydrological and slope stability) with rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Among the drawbacks of such an approach, the following assumptions may be mentioned: (1) prefixed initial conditions, with no regard to their probability of occurrence, and (2) constant intensity-hyetographs. In our work we propose the use of a Monte Carlo simulation approach in order to investigate the effects of the two above mentioned assumptions. The approach is based on coupling a physically based hydrological and slope stability model with a stochastic rainfall time series generator. By this methodology a long series of synthetic rainfall data can be generated and given as input to a landslide triggering physically based model, in order to compute the return period of landslide triggering as the mean inter-arrival time of a factor of safety less than one. In particular, we couple the Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses model for hourly rainfall generation and the TRIGRS v.2 unsaturated model for the computation of transient response to individual rainfall events. Initial conditions are computed by a water table recession model that links initial conditions at a given event to the final response at the preceding event, thus taking into account variable inter-arrival time between storms. One-thousand years of synthetic hourly rainfall are generated to estimate return periods up to 100 years. Applications are first carried out to map landslide triggering hazard in the Loco catchment, located in highly landslide-prone area of the Peloritani Mountains, Sicily, Italy. Then a set of additional simulations are performed in order to compare the results obtained by the traditional IDF-based method with the Monte Carlo ones. Results indicate that both variability of initial conditions and of intra-event rainfall intensity significantly affect return period estimation. In particular, the common assumption of an initial water table depth at the base of the pervious strata may lead in practice to an overestimation of return period up to one order of magnitude, while the assumption of constant-intensity hyetographs may yield an overestimation by a factor of two or three. Hence, it may be concluded that the analysed simplifications involved in the traditional IDF-based approach generally imply a non-conservative assessment of landslide triggering hazard.

Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

2016-08-01

This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

Early warning of orographically induced floods and landslides in Western Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leine, Ann-Live; Wang, Thea; Boje, Søren

2017-04-01

In Western Norway, landslides and debris flows are commonly initiated by short-term orographic rainfall or intensity peaks during a prolonged rainfall event. In recent years, the flood warning service in Norway has evolved from being solely a flood forecasting service to also integrating landslides into its early warning systems. As both floods and landslides are closely related to the same hydrometeorological processes, particularly in small catchments, there is a natural synergy between monitoring flood and landslide risk. The Norwegian Flood and Landslide Hazard Forecasting and Warning Service issues regional landslide hazard warnings based on hydrological models, threshold values, observations and weather forecasts. Intense rainfall events and/or orographic precipitation that, under certain topographic conditions, significantly increase the risk of debris avalanches and debris floods are lately receiving more research focus from the Norwegian warning service. Orographic precipitation is a common feature in W-Norway, when moist and relatively mild air arrives from the Atlantic. Steep mountain slopes covered by glacial till makes the region prone to landslides, as well as flooding. The operational early warning system in Norway requires constant improvement, especially with the enhanced number of intense rainfall events that occur in a warming climate. Here, we examine different cases of intense rainfall events which have lead to landslides and debris flows, as well as increased runoff in fast responding small catchments. The main objective is to increase the understanding of the hydrometeorological conditions related to these events, in order to make priorities for the future development of the warning service.

Analyzing the occurrence of debris flows and floods in a small watershed two years after a wildfire, San Gabriel Mountains, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leeper, R. J.; Barth, N. C.; Gray, A. B.

2016-12-01

The frontal range of the San Gabriel Mountains immediately abuts the Los Angeles basin for approximately 110 km. Along this wildland-urban interface and throughout the mountain range multiple overlapping natural hazards can occur, the most frequent of which are postfire debris flows and floods triggered by intense rainfall events. Recent studies in southern California of burned basins with steep slopes show that the timing of postfire debris flows and floods during the first winter following a wildfire is closely tied to high-intensity rainfall events. Here, we explore short-term (seasonal/annual) controls on sediment production and flux after the 2014 Colby Fire, which burned 8 km2 of the southern San Gabriel front directly above the city of Glendora, CA. To understand how sediment flux changes as a basin recovers following a wildfire, we installed and monitored a dense network of rain gages and pressure transducers within the Englewild watershed ( 1 km2) during the second winter following the Colby Fire. Site visits were made following each rainstorm to download pressure transducer and rainfall data and analyze the geomorphic response within the channel network. Preliminary results indicate that rainfall intensity-duration thresholds (5-min) previously identified as postfire debris flow triggers were exceeded multiple times throughout the winter. However, we only one documented one debris flow. Understanding changes in the rainfall intensity thresholds relative to debris flow timing and occurrence with system rebound after wildfire is important to help reduce risk and increase hazard resilience.

Optimization of typical diffuse herbicide pollution control by soil amendment configurations under four levels of rainfall intensities.

PubMed

Ouyang, Wei; Huang, Weijia; Wei, Peng; Hao, Fanghua; Yu, Yongyong

2016-06-15

Herbicides are a main source of agricultural diffuse pollution due to their wide application in tillage practices. The aim of this study is to optimize the control efficiency of the herbicide atrazine with the aid of modified soil amendments. The soil amendments were composed of a combination of biochar and gravel. The biochar was created from corn straw with a catalytic pyrolysis of ammonium dihydrogen phosphate. The leaching experiments under four rainfall conditions were measured for the following designs: raw soil, soil amended with gravel, biochar individually and together with gravel. The control efficiency of each design was also identified. With the designed equipment, the atrazine content in the contaminant load layer, gravel substrate layer, biochar amendment layer and soil layer was measured under four types of rainfall intensities (1.25 mm/h, 2.50 mm/h, 5.00 mm/h and 10.00 mm/h). Furthermore, the vertical distribution of atrazine in the soil sections was also monitored. The results showed that the herbicide leaching load increased under the highest rainfall intensity in all designs. The soil with the combination of gravel and biochar provided the highest control efficiency of 87.85% on atrazine when the additional proportion of biochar was 3.0%. The performance assessment under the four kinds of rainfall intensity conditions provided the guideline for the soil amendment configuration. The combination of gravel and biochar is recommended as an efficient method for controlling diffuse herbicide pollution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rainfall simulators - innovations seeking rainfall uniformity and automatic flow rate measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, Miroslav; Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Luděk; Dostál, Tomáš; Krása, Josef

2016-04-01

Field rainfall simulators are used worldwide for many experimental purposes, such as runoff generation and soil erosion research. At CTU in Prague a laboratory simulator with swinging nozzles VeeJet has been operated since 2001. Since 2012 an additional terrain simulator is being used with 4 fixed FullJet 40WSQ nozzles with 2,4 m spacing and operating over two simultaneously sprinkled experimental plots sizing 8x2 and 1x1 m. In parallel to other research projects a specific problem was solved: improving rainfall spatial uniformity and overall intensity and surface runoff measurements. These fundamental variables significantly affect investigated processes as well as resulting water balance of the plot, therefore they need to be determined as accurately as possible. Although the original nozzles setting produced (commonly used) Christiansen uniformity index CU over 80 %, detailed measurements proved this index insufficient and showed many unrequired rainfall extremes within the plot. Moreover the number of rainfall intensity scenarios was limited and some of them required problematic multi-pressure operation of the water distribution system. Therefore the simulator was subjected to many substantial changes in 2015. Innovations ranged from pump intensification to control unit upgrade. As essential change was considered increase in number of nozzles to 9 in total and reducing their spacing to 1,2 m. However new uniformity measurements did not bring any significant improvement. Tested scenarios showed equal standard deviations of interpolated intensity rasters and equal or slightly lower CU index. Imperfections of sprinkling nozzles were found to be the limiting factor. Still many other benefits were brought with the new setup. Whole experimental plot 10x2 m is better covered with the rainfall while the water consumption is retained. Nozzles are triggered in triplets, which enables more rainfall intensity scenarios. Water distribution system is more stable due to single pressure operating mode, which is ensured by the pressure probe controlled electromagnetic valve. Previous experiments implied the need of automatic continuous measurements of selected variables. To this end the control unit was equipped with a datalogger. In a several seconds time step it collects the values of water pressure, nozzle-valves operation, control point rainfall intensity from a tipping bucket rain gauge, topsoil moisture from several Theta ML2x probes and most recently the plot outlet runoff rate. For a continuous runoff rate measurement a 0,4-foot HS-flume was constructed and equipped with S18U ultrasonic sensor. Assemble setting was optimised both in flow rate laboratory flume and in laboratory rainfall simulator. Namely the rating curves for particular flume bottom slopes were derived. Employment of the flume in the terrain is scheduled for the experimental season 2016, but laboratory results already show sufficient measurement accuracy and are promising in terms of experimental campaigns simplification. The abovementioned activities have been supported by the research grants SGS14/180/OHK1/3T/11, QJ1530181, QJ1520265 and QJ1330118.

Parameter Estimation for a Model of Space-Time Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James A.; Karr, Alan F.

1985-08-01

In this paper, parameter estimation procedures, based on data from a network of rainfall gages, are developed for a class of space-time rainfall models. The models, which are designed to represent the spatial distribution of daily rainfall, have three components, one that governs the temporal occurrence of storms, a second that distributes rain cells spatially for a given storm, and a third that determines the rainfall pattern within a rain cell. Maximum likelihood and method of moments procedures are developed. We illustrate that limitations on model structure are imposed by restricting data sources to rain gage networks. The estimation procedures are applied to a 240-mi2 (621 km2) catchment in the Potomac River basin.

Precipitation thresholds for triggering floods in Corgo hydrographic basin (Northern Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Monica; Fragoso, Marcelo

2016-04-01

The precipitation is a major cause of natural hazards and is therefore related to the flood events (Borga et al., 2011; Gaál et al., 2014; Wilhelmi & Morss, 2013). The severity of a precipitation event and their potential damage is dependent on the total amount of rain but also on the intensity and duration event (Gaál et al., 2014). In this work, it was established thresholds based on critical combinations: amount / duration of flood events with daily rainfall data for Corgo hydrographic basin, in northern Portugal. In Corgo basin are recorded 31 floods events between 1865 and 2011 (Santos et al., 2015; Zêzere et al., 2014). We determined the minimum, maximum and pre-warning thresholds that define the boundaries so that an event may occur. Additionally, we applied these thresholds to different flood events occurred in the past in the study basin. The results show that the ratio between the flood events and precipitation events that occur above the minimum threshold has relatively low probability of a flood happen. These results may be related to the reduced number of floods events (only those that caused damage reported by the media and produced some type of damage). The maximum threshold is not useful for floods forecasting, since the majority of true positives are below this limit. The retrospective analysis of the thresholds defined suggests that the minimum and pre warning thresholds are well adjusted. The application of rainfall thresholds contribute to minimize possible situations of pre-crisis or immediate crisis, reducing the consequences and the resources involved in emergency response of flood events. References Borga, M., Anagnostou, E. N., Blöschl, G., & Creutin, J. D. (2011). Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project. Environmental Science & Policy, 14(7), 834-844. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2011.05.017 Gaál, L., Molnar, P., & Szolgay, J. (2014). Selection of intense rainfall events based on intensity thresholds and lightning data in Switzerland. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18(5), 1561-1573. doi: 10.5194/hess-18-1561-2014 Santos, M., Santos, J. A., & Fragoso, M. (2015). Historical damaging flood records for 1871-2011 in Northern Portugal and underlying atmospheric forcings. Journal of Hydrology, 530, 591-603. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.10.011 Wilhelmi, O. V., & Morss, R. E. (2013). Integrated analysis of societal vulnerability in an extreme precipitation event: A Fort Collins case study. Environmental Science & Policy, 26, 49-62. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2012.07.005 Zêzere, J. L., Pereira, S., Tavares, A. O., Bateira, C., Trigo, R. M., Quaresma, I., Santos, P. P., Santos, M., & Verde, J. (2014). DISASTER: a GIS database on hydro-geomorphologic disasters in Portugal. Nat. Hazards, 1-30. doi: 10.1007/s11069-013-1018-y

A gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK applied to a national physically-based modelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Elizabeth; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Quinn, Niall; Freer, Jim; Coxon, Gemma; Woods, Ross; Bates, Paul; Fowler, Hayley

2016-04-01

An hourly gridded rainfall product has great potential for use in many hydrological applications that require high temporal resolution meteorological data. One important example of this is flood risk management, with flooding in the UK highly dependent on sub-daily rainfall intensities amongst other factors. Knowledge of sub-daily rainfall intensities is therefore critical to designing hydraulic structures or flood defences to appropriate levels of service. Sub-daily rainfall rates are also essential inputs for flood forecasting, allowing for estimates of peak flows and stage for flood warning and response. In addition, an hourly gridded rainfall dataset has significant potential for practical applications such as better representation of extremes and pluvial flash flooding, validation of high resolution climate models and improving the representation of sub-daily rainfall in weather generators. A new 1km gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK has been created by disaggregating the daily Gridded Estimates of Areal Rainfall (CEH-GEAR) dataset using comprehensively quality-controlled hourly rain gauge data from over 1300 observation stations across the country. Quality control measures include identification of frequent tips, daily accumulations and dry spells, comparison of daily totals against the CEH-GEAR daily dataset, and nearest neighbour checks. The quality control procedure was validated against historic extreme rainfall events and the UKCP09 5km daily rainfall dataset. General use of the dataset has been demonstrated by testing the sensitivity of a physically-based hydrological modelling system for Great Britain to the distribution and rates of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Of the sensitivity tests undertaken, the largest improvements in model performance were seen when an hourly gridded rainfall dataset was combined with potential evapotranspiration disaggregated to hourly intervals, with 61% of catchments showing an increase in NSE between observed and simulated streamflows as a result of more realistic sub-daily meteorological forcing.

Climatology and Interannual Variability of Quasi-Global Intense Precipitation Using Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricko, Martina; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.

2016-01-01

Climatology and variations of recent mean and intense precipitation over a near-global (50 deg. S 50 deg. N) domain on a monthly and annual time scale are analyzed. Data used to derive daily precipitation to examine the effects of spatial and temporal coverage of intense precipitation are from the current Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 version 7 precipitation product, with high spatial and temporal resolution during 1998 - 2013. Intense precipitation is defined by several different parameters, such as a 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation, a mean precipitation that exceeds that percentile, or a fixed threshold of daily precipitation value [e.g., 25 and 50 mm day(exp -1)]. All parameters are used to identify the main characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of intense precipitation. High correlations between examined parameters are observed, especially between climatological monthly mean precipitation and intense precipitation, over both tropical land and ocean. Among the various parameters examined, the one best characterizing intense rainfall is a fraction of daily precipitation Great than or equal to 25 mm day(exp. -1), defined as a ratio between the intense precipitation above the used threshold and mean precipitation. Regions that experience an increase in mean precipitation likely experience a similar increase in intense precipitation, especially during the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Improved knowledge of this intense precipitation regime and its strong connection to mean precipitation given by the fraction parameter can be used for monitoring of intense rainfall and its intensity on a global to regional scale.

Uncertainties on the definition of critical rainfall patterns for debris-flows triggering. Results from the Rebaixader monitoring site (Central Pyrenees)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hürlimann, Marcel; Abancó, Clàudia; Moya, Jose; Berenguer, Marc

2015-04-01

Empirical rainfall thresholds are a widespread technique in debris-flow hazard assessment and can be established by statistical analysis of historic data. Typically, data from one or several rain gauges located nearby the affected catchment is used to define the triggering conditions. However, this procedure has been demonstrated not to be accurate enough due to the spatial variability of convective rainstorms. In 2009, a monitoring system was installed in the Rebaixader catchment, Central Pyrenees (Spain). Since then, 28 torrential flows (debris flows and debris floods) have occurred and rainfall data of 25 of them are available with a 5-minutes frequency of recording ("event rainfalls"). Other 142 rainfalls that did not trigger events ("no event rainfalls) were also collected and analysed. The goal of this work was threefold: a) characterize rainfall episodes in the Rebaixader catchment and compare rainfall data that triggered torrential events and others that did not; b) define and test Intensity-Duration (ID) thresholds using rainfall data measured inside the catchment; c) estimate the uncertainty derived from the use of rain gauges located outside the catchment based on the spatial correlation depicted by radar rainfall maps. The results of the statistical analysis showed that the parameters that more distinguish between the two populations of rainfalls are the rainfall intensities, the mean rainfall and the total precipitation. On the other side, the storm duration and the antecedent rainfall are not significantly different between "event rainfalls" and "no event rainfalls". Four different ID rainfall thresholds were derived based on the dataset of the first 5 years and tested using the 2014 dataset. The results of the test indicated that the threshold corresponding to the 90% percentile showed the best performance. Weather radar data was used to analyse the spatial variability of the triggering rainfalls. The analysis indicates that rain gauges outside the catchment may be considered useful or not to describe the rainfall depending on the type of rainfall. For widespread rainfalls, further rain gauges can give a reliable measurement, because the spatial correlation decreases slowly with the distance between the rain gauge and the debris-flow initiation area. Contrarily, local storm cells show higher space-time variability and, therefore, representative rainfall measurements are obtained only by the closest rain gauges. In conclusion, the definition of rainfall thresholds is a delicate task. When the rainfall records are coming from gauges that are outside the catchment under consideration, the data should be carefully analysed and crosschecked with radar data (especially for small convective cells).

State-space adjustment of radar rainfall and skill score evaluation of stochastic volume forecasts in urban drainage systems.

PubMed

Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Rasmussen, Michael R; Madsen, Henrik

2013-01-01

Merging of radar rainfall data with rain gauge measurements is a common approach to overcome problems in deriving rain intensities from radar measurements. We extend an existing approach for adjustment of C-band radar data using state-space models and use the resulting rainfall intensities as input for forecasting outflow from two catchments in the Copenhagen area. Stochastic grey-box models are applied to create the runoff forecasts, providing us with not only a point forecast but also a quantification of the forecast uncertainty. Evaluating the results, we can show that using the adjusted radar data improves runoff forecasts compared with using the original radar data and that rain gauge measurements as forecast input are also outperformed. Combining the data merging approach with short-term rainfall forecasting algorithms may result in further improved runoff forecasts that can be used in real time control.

Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endris, Hussen Seid; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Artan, Guleid A.

2018-05-01

This study examines the projected changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in terms of mean state, intensity and frequency, and associated rainfall anomalies over eastern Africa. Two regional climate models driven by the same four global climate models (GCMs) and the corresponding GCM simulations are used to investigate projected changes in teleconnection patterns and East African rainfall. The period 1976-2005 is taken as the reference for present climate and the far-future climate (2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) is analyzed for projected change. Analyses of projections based on GCMs indicate an El Niño-like (positive IOD-like) warming pattern over the tropical Pacific (Indian) Ocean. However, large uncertainties remain in the projected future changes in ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity with some GCMs show increase of ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity, and others a decrease or no/small change. Projected changes in mean rainfall over eastern Africa based on the GCM and RCM data indicate a decrease in rainfall over most parts of the region during JJAS and MAM seasons, and an increase in rainfall over equatorial and southern part of the region during OND, with the greatest changes in equatorial region. During ENSO and IOD years, important changes in the strength of the teleconnections are found. During JJAS, when ENSO is an important driver of rainfall variability over the region, both GCM and RCM projections show an enhanced La Niña-related rainfall anomaly compared to the present period. Although the long rains (MAM) have little association with ENSO in the reference period, both GCMs and RCMs project stronger ENSO teleconnections in the future. On the other hand, during the short rains (OND), a dipole future change in rainfall teleconnection associated with ENSO and IOD is found, with a stronger ENSO/IOD related rainfall anomaly over the eastern part of the domain, but a weaker ENSO/IOD signal over the southern part of the region. This signal is consistent and robust in all global and regional model simulations. The projected increase in OND rainfall over the eastern horn of Africa might be linked with the mean changes in SST over Indian and Pacific Ocean basins and the associated Walker circulations.

A laboratory rainfall simulator to study the soil erosion and runoff water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cancelo González, Javier; Rial, M. E.; Díaz-Fierros, Francisco

2010-05-01

The soil erosion and the runoff water composition in some areas affected by forest fires or submitted to intensive agriculture are an important factor to keep an account, particularly in sensitive areas like estuary and rias that have a high importance in the socioeconomic development of some regions. An understanding of runoff production indicates the processes by which pollutants reach streams and also indicates the management techniques that might be uses to minimize the discharge of these materials into surface waters. One of the most methodology implemented in the soil erosion studies is a rainfall simulation. This method can reproduce the natural soil degradation processes in field or laboratory experiences. With the aim of improve the rainfall-runoff generation, a laboratory rainfall simulator which incorporates a fan-like intermittent water jet system for rainfall generation were modified. The major change made to the rainfall simulator consist in a system to coupling stainless steel boxes, whose dimensions are 12 x 20 x 45 centimeters, and it allows to place soil samples under the rainfall simulator. Previously these boxes were used to take soil samples in field with more of 20 centimeters of depth, causing the minimum disturbance in their properties and structure. These new implementations in the rainfall simulator also allow collect water samples of runoff in two ways: firstly, the rain water that constituted the overland flow or direct runoff and besides the rain water seeps into the soil by the process of infiltration and contributed to the subsurface runoff. Among main the variables controlled in the rainfall simulations were the soil slope and the intensity and duration of rainfall. With the aim of test the prototype, six soil samples were collected in the same sampling point and subjected to rainfall simulations in laboratory with the same intensity and duration. Two samples will constitute the control test, and they were fully undisturbed, and four samples were subjected to controlled burnings with different fire severity: two samples burnt to 250°C and the other two samples burnt to 450°C. Preliminary laboratory data of soil erosion and surface and subsurface runoff were obtained. The water parameters analysed were: pH, electrical conductivity, temperature (in the moment of sampling) and suspended sediments, ammonium, nitrates, total nitrogen (Kjeldahl method), within 24 hours after sampling.

Hydrologic behavior of a steep forested slope prone to shallow landsliding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berti, Matteo; Simoni, Alessandro

2015-04-01

Over the past ten years, the frequency of debris flows in the Northern Apennines of Italy has significantly increased. Gravitational movements in the area are dominated by slow-moving landslides involving fine-grained soils and, to a lesser extent, by shallow slips in weathered arenaceous rocks. During the past 5 years, at least 20 debris flow events were triggered by exceptional rainfall events. Although no fatalities of injuries resulted from these landslides, the appearance of this new danger generated great concern among local communities. The Civil Protection Agency of the Emilia-Romagna region therefore decided to produce a debris flow susceptibility map to target high-risk zones and to help local authorities in emergency planning. This task, however, is particularly difficult due to the lack of historical data required to apply heuristic or statistical methods. In this context we installed a monitoring system on a representative slope in order to investigate the hydrologic response to rainfall and to support the choice of a suitable deterministic model. The selected slope is close to the village of Porretta Terme (Province of Bologna, Italy) at an elevation of 510 m asl. The slope has an inclination of about 30° and consists of a thin soil cover (0.5-1 thickness) lying over a fractured arenaceous bedrock. The soil is a well-graded sand with silt, gravel, cobbles, and weathered rock blocks. The slope is densely vegetated with grass, shrubs and mature trees. Part of the slope failed on the 30th November 2008 after a rainfall of 140 mm in 24 hours. A shallow slide of the soil mantle rapidly mobilized into debris flow leaving the bedrock exposed in the source area. The monitoring system is located on an unfailed slope close to the initiation area. The system consists of three stations aligned along the maximum slope at a distance of 15-20 m. Each station is equipped with: i) an open-standpipe piezometer installed near the soil-rock interface (1 m deep); ii) three tensiometers installed in the soil cover at different depths (0.2, 0.5 and 0.8 m); iii) three soil moisture capacitance sensors installed beside the tensiometer probes. The uphill station also includes an ultrasonic sensor for measuring snow depth and a barometric/temperature sensor. A tipping-bucket rain gage is installed in an area free of tree vegetation located 50 m further uphill. All the data are recorded every 10 minutes and stored on site. The monitoring system was installed in September 2012 and the first two years of data provide a consistent picture of slope hydrology. During all the dry season (from June to September) the sandy soil is essentially dry with strong negative pore pressures (less than -80 kPa). Occasional summer rainfall causes the infiltration of water into the unsaturated soil but the soil never approaches the saturation, nor groundwater is accumulated at the soil-rock interface. With the start of the wet season (around October) the soil water content progressively increases and the pore pressure rises to values detectable by the tensiometers (higher than 80 kPa). The soil, however, remains generally unsaturated with negative pore pressures in the order of -20/-30 kPa. Full saturation is temporarily reached in response to intense rainfall events. Rainfall water induce fast, transient pore pressure increases in the soil mantle and moves vertically toward the soil-rock interface, eventually leading to the development of a transient perched water table during the heaviest rainfall events. The thickness of the perched water table is clearly related to rainfall intensity (very intense rainfall may saturate up to 80% of the soil profile) while the contribution of lateral flow is less evident probably because it is dominated by macropores or because because bedrock fractures favour deeper circulation.

[Hydrology and pollution characteristics of urban runoff: Beijing as a sample].

PubMed

Dong, Xin; Du, Peng-Fei; Li, Zhi-Yi; Yu, Zheng-Rong; Wang, Rui; Huang, Jin-Liang

2008-03-01

The purpose of this study is identification and characterization of hydrological process of urban runoff, as well as concentration variation of pollutants in it. Samples were collected in 4 rainfall events in Beijing from Jun. 2006 to Aug. 2006. Hydrology and pollution of the rainfall-runoff process were analyzed on roof and road. Study results show that the shapes of hydrological curves of runoff, despite for a 5 - 20 min delay and a milder tendency, are similar to rainfall curves. Runoff coefficients of roof are 0.80 - 0.98, while 0.87 - 0.97 of road. Event mean concentrations (EMC) of pollutants are influenced by build-up and wash-off features, which leads to a higher concentration in road runoff than in roof runoff. Major pollutants that excess the water quality standards are COD, TN, and TP. Evident correlations (> 0.1) are found between pollutants. Correlation with particles are higher for COD and SO4(2-) (> 0.5), while lower for nutrients (<0.5). First flush effects (FFE) are found and affected by several factors, such as pollutant variety, types of land covers, and rainfall intensity. FFE are found more intense in SS, more frequently in road runoff, and more difficult to form for COD and nutrients with low rainfall intensity. Therefore, control of first period of runoff would be an effective approach for runoff management in Beijing.

Difference infiltrometer: a method to measure temporally variable infiltration rates during rainstorms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, John A.; Ebel, Brian A.

2012-01-01

We developed a difference infiltrometer to measure time series of non-steady infiltration rates during rainstorms at the point scale. The infiltrometer uses two, tipping bucket rain gages. One gage measures rainfall onto, and the other measures runoff from, a small circular plot about 0.5-m in diameter. The small size allows the infiltration rate to be computed as the difference of the cumulative rainfall and cumulative runoff without having to route water through a large plot. Difference infiltrometers were deployed in an area burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire near Boulder, Colorado, USA, and data were collected during the summer of 2011. The difference infiltrometer demonstrated the capability to capture different magnitudes of infiltration rates and temporal variability associated with convective (high intensity, short duration) and cyclonic (low intensity, long duration) rainstorms. Data from the difference infiltrometer were used to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity of soil affected by the heat from a wildfire. The difference infiltrometer is portable and can be deployed in rugged, steep terrain and does not require the transport of water, as many rainfall simulators require, because it uses natural rainfall. It can be used to assess infiltration models, determine runoff coefficients, identify rainfall depth or rainfall intensity thresholds to initiate runoff, estimate parameters for infiltration models, and compare remediation treatments on disturbed landscapes. The difference infiltrometer can be linked with other types of soil monitoring equipment in long-term studies for detecting temporal and spatial variability at multiple time scales and in nested designs where it can be linked to hillslope and basin-scale runoff responses.

Numerical simulation of trace element transport on subsurface environment pollution in coal mine spoil.

PubMed

Qiang, Xue; Bing, Liang; Hui-yun, Wang; Lei, Liu

2006-01-01

An understanding of the dynamic behavior of trace elements leaching from coal mine spoil is important in predicting the groundwater quality. The relationship between trace element concentrations and leaching times, pH values of the media is studied. Column leaching tests conducted in the laboratory showed that there was a close correlation between pH value and trace element concentrations. The longer the leaching time, the higher the trace element concentrations. Different trace elements are differently affected by pH values of leaching media. A numerical model for water flow and trace element transport has been developed based on analyzing the characteristics of migration and transformation of trace elements leached from coal mine spoil. Solutions to the coupled model are accomplished by Eulerian-Lagrangian localized adjoint method. Numerical simulation shows that rainfall intensity determined maximum leaching depth. As rainfall intensity is 3.6ml/s, the outflow concentrations indicate a breakthrough of trace elements beyond the column base, with peak concentration at 90cm depth. And the subsurface pollution range has a trend of increase with time. The model simulations are compared to experimental results of trace element concentrations, with reasonable agreement between them. The analysis and modeling of trace elements suggested that the infiltration of rainwater through the mine spoil might lead to potential groundwater pollution. It provides theoretical evidence for quantitative assessment soil-water quality of trace element transport on environment pollution.

Temperature and rainfall are related to fertility rate after spring artificial insemination in small ruminants.

PubMed

Abecia, J A; Arrébola, F; Macías, A; Laviña, A; González-Casquet, O; Benítez, F; Palacios, C

2016-10-01

A total number of 1092 artificial inseminations (AIs) performed from March to May were documented over four consecutive years on 10 Payoya goat farms (36° N) and 19,392 AIs on 102 Rasa Aragonesa sheep farms (41° N) over 10 years. Mean, maximum, and minimum ambient temperatures, mean relative humidity, mean solar radiation, and total rainfall on each insemination day were recorded. Overall, fertility rates were 58 % in goats and 45 % in sheep. The fertility rates of the highest and lowest deciles of each of the meteorological variables indicated that temperature and rainfall had a significant effect on fertility in goats. Specifically, inseminations that were performed when mean (68 %), maximum (68 %), and minimum (66 %) temperatures were in the highest decile, and rainfall was in the lowest decile (59 %), had a significantly (P < 0.0001) higher proportion of does that became pregnant than did the ewes in the lowest decile (56, 54, 58, and 49 %, respectively). In sheep, the fertility rates of the highest decile of mean (62 %), maximum (62 %), and minimum (52 %) temperature, RH (52 %), THI (53 %), and rainfall (45 %) were significantly higher (P < 0.0001) than were the fertility rates among ewes in the lowest decile (46, 45, 45, 45, 46, and 43 %, respectively). In conclusion, weather was related to fertility in small ruminants after AI in spring. It remains to be determined whether scheduling the dates of insemination based on forecasted temperatures can improve the success of AI in goats and sheep.

A Method for Partitioning Surface and Subsurface Flow Using Rainfall Simulaton and Two-Dimensional Surface Electrical Resistivity Imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, A. M.; Paige, G. B.; Miller, S. N.; Carr, B. J.; Holbrook, W. S.

2014-12-01

In semi-arid rangeland environments understanding how surface and subsurface flow processes and their interactions are influenced by watershed and rainfall characteristics is critical. However, it is difficult to resolve the temporal variations between mechanisms controlling these processes and challenging to obtain field measurements that document their interactions. Better insight into how these complex systems respond hydrologically is necessary in order to refine hydrologic models and decision support tools. We are conducting field studies integrating high resolution, two-dimensional surface electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) with variable intensity rainfall simulation, to quantify real-time partitioning of rainfall into surface and subsurface response. These studies are being conducted at the hillslope scale on long-term runoff plots on four different ecological sites in the Upper Crow Creek Watershed in southeastern Wyoming. Variable intensity rainfall rates were applied using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator in which intensities were increased incrementally from 49 to 180 mm hr-1 and steady-state runoff rates for each intensity were measured. Two 13.5 m electrode arrays at 0.5 m spacing were positioned on the surface perpendicular to each plot and potentials were measured at given time intervals prior to, during and following simulations using a dipole-dipole array configuration. The configuration allows for a 2.47 m depth of investigation in which magnitude and direction of subsurface flux can be determined. We used the calculated steady state infiltration rates to quantify the variability in the partial area runoff response on the ecological sites. Coupling this information with time-lapse difference inversions of ERI data, we are able to track areas of increasing and decreasing resistivity in the subsurface related to localized areas of infiltration during and following rainfall events. We anticipate implementing this method across a variety of ecological sites in the Upper Crow Creek in order to characterize the variable hydrologic response of this complex rangeland watershed. This information is being used to refine current physically based hydrologic models and watershed assessment tools.

Site-specific climate analysis elucidates revegetation challenges for post-mining landscapes in eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Audet, P.; Arnold, S.; Lechner, A. M.; Baumgartl, T.

2013-10-01

In eastern Australia, the availability of water is critical for the successful rehabilitation of post-mining landscapes and climatic characteristics of this diverse geographical region are closely defined by factors such as erratic rainfall and periods of drought and flooding. Despite this, specific metrics of climate patterning are seldom incorporated into the initial design of current post-mining land rehabilitation strategies. Our study proposes that a few common rainfall parameters can be combined and rated using arbitrary rainfall thresholds to characterise bioregional climate sensitivity relevant to the rehabilitation these landscapes. This approach included assessments of annual rainfall depth, average recurrence interval of prolonged low intensity rainfall, average recurrence intervals of short or prolonged high intensity events, median period without rain (or water-deficit) and standard deviation for this period in order to address climatic factors such as total water availability, seasonality and intensity - which were selected as potential proxies of both short- and long-term biological sensitivity to climate within the context of post-disturbance ecological development and recovery. Following our survey of available climate data, we derived site "climate sensitivity" indexes and compared the performance of 9 ongoing mine sites: Weipa, Mt. Isa and Cloncurry, Eromanga, Kidston, the Bowen Basin (Curragh), Tarong, North Stradbroke Island, and the Newnes Plateau. The sites were then ranked from most-to-least sensitive and compared with natural bioregional patterns of vegetation density using mean NDVI. It was determined that regular rainfall and relatively short periods of water-deficit were key characteristics of sites having less sensitivity to climate - as found among the relatively more temperate inland mining locations. Whereas, high rainfall variability, frequently occurring high intensity events, and (or) prolonged seasonal drought were primary indicators of sites having greater sensitivity to climate - as found among the semi-arid central-inland sites. Overall, the manner in which these climatic factors are identified and ultimately addressed by land managers and rehabilitation practitioners could be a key determinant of achievable success at given locations at the planning stages of rehabilitation design.

Stable Isotope Anatomy of Tropical Cyclone Ita, North-Eastern Australia, April 2014

PubMed Central

Munksgaard, Niels C.; Zwart, Costijn; Kurita, Naoyuki; Bass, Adrian; Nott, Jon; Bird, Michael I.

2015-01-01

The isotope signatures registered in speleothems during tropical cyclones (TC) provides information about the frequency and intensity of past TCs but the precise relationship between isotopic composition and the meteorology of TCs remain uncertain. Here we present continuous δ18O and δ2H data in rainfall and water vapour, as well as in discrete rainfall samples, during the passage of TC Ita and relate the evolution in isotopic compositions to local and synoptic scale meteorological observations. High-resolution data revealed a close relationship between isotopic compositions and cyclonic features such as spiral rainbands, periods of stratiform rainfall and the arrival of subtropical and tropical air masses with changing oceanic and continental moisture sources. The isotopic compositions in discrete rainfall samples were remarkably constant along the ~450 km overland path of the cyclone when taking into account the direction and distance to the eye of the cyclone at each sampling time. Near simultaneous variations in δ18O and δ2H values in rainfall and vapour and a near-equilibrium rainfall-vapour isotope fractionation indicates strong isotopic exchange between rainfall and surface inflow of vapour during the approach of the cyclone. In contrast, after the passage of spiral rainbands close to the eye of the cyclone, different moisture sources for rainfall and vapour are reflected in diverging d-excess values. High-resolution isotope studies of modern TCs refine the interpretation of stable isotope signatures found in speleothems and other paleo archives and should aim to further investigate the influence of cyclone intensity and longevity on the isotopic composition of associated rainfall. PMID:25742628

A Prototype Visualization of Real-time River Drainage Network Response to Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.

2011-12-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to and visualization of flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, and other flood-related data for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS streams rainfall data from NEXRAD radar, and provides three interfaces including animation for rainfall intensity, daily rainfall totals and rainfall accumulations for past 14 days for Iowa. A real-time interactive visualization interface is developed using past rainfall intensity data. The interface creates community-based rainfall products on-demand using watershed boundaries of each community as a mask. Each individual rainfall pixel is tracked in the interface along the drainage network, and the ones drains to same pixel location are accumulated. The interface loads recent rainfall data in five minute intervals that are combined with current values. Latest web technologies are utilized for the development of the interface including HTML 5 Canvas, and JavaScript. The performance of the interface is optimized to run smoothly on modern web browsers. The interface controls allow users to change internal parameters of the system, and operation conditions of the animation. The interface will help communities understand the effects of rainfall on water transport in stream and river networks and make better-informed decisions regarding the threat of floods. This presentation provides an overview of a unique visualization interface and discusses future plans for real-time dynamic presentations of streamflow forecasting.

Geophysical Factor Resolving of Rainfall Mechanism for Super Typhoons by Using Multiple Spatiotemporal Components Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chien-Lin; Hsu, Nien-Sheng

2016-04-01

This study develops a novel methodology to resolve the geophysical cause of typhoon-induced rainfall considering diverse dynamic co-evolution at multiple spatiotemporal components. The multi-order hidden patterns of complex hydrological process in chaos are detected to understand the fundamental laws of rainfall mechanism. The discovered spatiotemporal features are utilized to develop a state-of-the-art descriptive statistical model for mechanism validation, modeling and further prediction during typhoons. The time series of hourly typhoon precipitation from different types of moving track, atmospheric field and landforms are respectively precede the signal analytical process to qualify each type of rainfall cause and to quantify the corresponding affected degree based on the measured geophysical atmospheric-hydrological variables. This study applies the developed methodology in Taiwan Island which is constituted by complex diverse landform formation. The identified driving-causes include: (1) cloud height to ground surface; (2) co-movement effect induced by typhoon wind field with monsoon; (3) stem capacity; (4) interaction between typhoon rain band and terrain; (5) structural intensity variance of typhoon; and (6) integrated cloudy density of rain band. Results show that: (1) for the central maximum wind speed exceeding 51 m/sec, Causes (1) and (3) are the primary ones to generate rainfall; (2) for the typhoon moving toward the direction of 155° to 175°, Cause (2) is the primary one; (3) for the direction of 90° to 155°, Cause (4) is the primary one; (4) for the typhoon passing through mountain chain which above 3500 m, Cause (5) is the primary one; and (5) for the moving speed lower than 18 km/hr, Cause (6) is the primary one. Besides, the multiple geophysical component-based precipitation modeling can achieve 81% of average accuracy and 0.732 of average correlation coefficient (CC) within average 46 hours of duration, that improve their predictability.

Decision tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spekkers, M. H.; Kok, M.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

2014-04-01

Flood damage prediction models are essential building blocks in flood risk assessments. Little research has been dedicated so far to damage of small-scale urban floods caused by heavy rainfall, while there is a need for reliable damage models for this flood type among insurers and water authorities. The aim of this paper is to investigate a wide range of damage-influencing factors and their relationships with rainfall-related damage, using decision tree analysis. For this, district-aggregated claim data from private property insurance companies in the Netherlands were analysed, for the period of 1998-2011. The databases include claims of water-related damage, for example, damages related to rainwater intrusion through roofs and pluvial flood water entering buildings at ground floor. Response variables being modelled are average claim size and claim frequency, per district per day. The set of predictors include rainfall-related variables derived from weather radar images, topographic variables from a digital terrain model, building-related variables and socioeconomic indicators of households. Analyses were made separately for property and content damage claim data. Results of decision tree analysis show that claim frequency is most strongly associated with maximum hourly rainfall intensity, followed by real estate value, ground floor area, household income, season (property data only), buildings age (property data only), ownership structure (content data only) and fraction of low-rise buildings (content data only). It was not possible to develop statistically acceptable trees for average claim size, which suggest that variability in average claim size is related to explanatory variables that cannot be defined at the district scale. Cross-validation results show that decision trees were able to predict 22-26% of variance in claim frequency, which is considerably better compared to results from global multiple regression models (11-18% of variance explained). Still, a large part of the variance in claim frequency is left unexplained, which is likely to be caused by variations in data at subdistrict scale and missing explanatory variables.

Link between Indian monsoon rainfall and physical erosion in the Himalayan system during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joussain, Ronan; Liu, Zhifei; Colin, Christophe; Duchamp-Alphonse, Stéphanie; Yu, Zhaojie; Moréno, Eva; Fournier, Léa.; Zaragosi, Sébastien; Dapoigny, Arnaud; Meynadier, Laure; Bassinot, Franck

2017-09-01

Mineralogical and geochemical analyses conducted on cores located on the active channel-levee system of the northern Bengal Fan are used to establish changes in the weathering pattern and the sediment transport of the Himalayan system, and evaluate the effect of Indian summer monsoon rainfall during the Holocene. Our data indicate that during the Holocene, sediments from the northern Bengal Fan originate mainly from the G-B river system without any significant changes in the relative contribution of these rivers. From 9.8 to around 6 ka, relatively low smectite/(illite+chlorite) ratios and relatively high K/Si* ratios indicate high physical denudation rates of the Himalayan highlands together with a rapid transfer of the detrital material to the Bengal Fan. The period between 9.2 and 7 ka is associated to lower values of K/Si* and corresponds to the maximum of Indian monsoon rainfall which indicates a more important chemical weathering material that rapidly transits by the G-B river system without a long storage in the Indo-Gangetic plain. From 6.0 ka to present day, higher smectite/(illite+chlorite) ratio and lower K/Si* ratio document a gradual increase of sediments originated from the Indo-Gangetic plain, characterized by higher degree of chemical weathering. During the last 2.5 ka, the drastic increase in the smectite/(illite+chlorite) ratio could be associated to enhanced alteration of the plain soils due to anthropogenic activity. The comparison of mineralogical and geochemical data with previous reconstructions of the Indian monsoon dynamic indicates a rapid response of erosion and sediment transfer of the G-B river system to changes of monsoon rainfall intensity.

Coupling of Indian and East Asian Monsoon Precipitation in July-August

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. A.; Fung, I. Y.; Risi, C. M.

2014-12-01

Recent work suggests that summer rainfall in the Indian and East Asian monsoons results from different mechanisms. The onset of intense convection in India is mediated by Hadley Cell transitions, whereas frontal rainfall in China (most notably during Meiyu season in June) arises from forced meridional convergence and zonal heat transport in the wake of the Tibetan Plateau. However, the leading mode of July-August interannual rainfall variability for All-Asia (defined as the region within 68E-140E and 5N-45N) demonstrates a statistically significant coupling between monthly anomalies in India and China. In particular, positive anomalies along the Himalayan Foothills are associated with positive anomalies along the Yangtze River, and also with negative anomalies over central India and northern and southern China. The entire pattern reverses in dry years over the Himalayan Foothills. This coupling is not significantly correlated with ENSO, the leading mode of global interannual variability. We propose that a channel of moisture transport links the Bay of Bengal to the Yangtze River valley across the high terrain of the Yunnan Plateau, on the southeast edge of the Tibetan Plateau. This channel only activates in July, when the maximum of moist static energy (MSE) shifts to land, and weakens in September with the cooling of Bay of Bengal SST. Our mechanism is substantiated by analysis of output from the LMDZ5 model, which includes a high-resolution nested grid nudged to reanalysis, improving the simulation of the Indian Monsoon and performance near high topography. Potential changes in moisture transport across the Yunnan Plateau under 21st century warming conditions may lead to modified interannual variability of Asian rainfall.

Modelling urban rainfall-runoff responses using an experimental, two-tiered physical modelling environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Daniel; Pattison, Ian; Yu, Dapeng

2016-04-01

Surface water (pluvial) flooding occurs when rainwater from intense precipitation events is unable to infiltrate into the subsurface or drain via natural or artificial drainage channels. Surface water flooding poses a serious hazard to urban areas across the world, with the UK's perceived risk appearing to have increased in recent years due to surface water flood events seeming more severe and frequent. Surface water flood risk currently accounts for 1/3 of all UK flood risk, with approximately two million people living in urban areas at risk of a 1 in 200-year flood event. Research often focuses upon using numerical modelling techniques to understand the extent, depth and severity of actual or hypothetical flood scenarios. Although much research has been conducted using numerical modelling, field data available for model calibration and validation is limited due to the complexities associated with data collection in surface water flood conditions. Ultimately, the data which numerical models are based upon is often erroneous and inconclusive. Physical models offer a novel, alternative and innovative environment to collect data within, creating a controlled, closed system where independent variables can be altered independently to investigate cause and effect relationships. A physical modelling environment provides a suitable platform to investigate rainfall-runoff processes occurring within an urban catchment. Despite this, physical modelling approaches are seldom used in surface water flooding research. Scaled laboratory experiments using a 9m2, two-tiered 1:100 physical model consisting of: (i) a low-cost rainfall simulator component able to simulate consistent, uniformly distributed (>75% CUC) rainfall events of varying intensity, and; (ii) a fully interchangeable, modular plot surface have been conducted to investigate and quantify the influence of a number of terrestrial and meteorological factors on overland flow and rainfall-runoff patterns within a modelled urban setting. Terrestrial factors investigated include altering the physical model's catchment slope (0°- 20°), as well as simulating a number of spatially-varied impermeability and building density/configuration scenarios. Additionally, the influence of different storm dynamics and intensities were investigated. Preliminary results demonstrate that rainfall-runoff responses in the physical modelling environment are highly sensitive to slight increases in catchment gradient and rainfall intensity and that more densely distributed building layouts significantly increase peak flows recorded at the physical model outflow when compared to sparsely distributed building layouts under comparable simulated rainfall conditions.

Assessing the risk posed by high-turbidity water to water supplies.

PubMed

Chang, Chia-Ling; Liao, Chung-Sheng

2012-05-01

The objective of this study is to assess the risk of insufficient water supply posed by high-turbidity water. Several phenomena can pose risks to the sufficiency of a water supply; this study concerns risks to water treatment plants from particular properties of rainfall and raw water turbidity. High-turbidity water can impede water treatment plant operations; rainfall properties can influence the degree of soil erosion. Thus, water turbidity relates to rainfall characteristics. Exceedance probabilities are presented for different rainfall intensities and turbidities of water. When the turbidity of raw water is higher than 5,000 NTU, it can cause operational problems for a water treatment plant. Calculations show that the turbidity of raw water at the Ban-Sin water treatment plant will be higher than 5,000 NTU if the rainfall intensity is larger than 165 mm/day. The exceedance probability of high turbidity (turbidity >5,000 NTU) in the Ban-Sin water treatment plant is larger than 10%. When any water treatment plant cannot work regularly, its ability to supply water to its customers is at risk.

Predictive performance of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide triggering in Switzerland from daily gridded precipitation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonarduzzi, E.; Molnar, P.; McArdell, B. W.

2017-12-01

In Switzerland floods are responsible for most of the damage caused by rainfall-triggered natural hazards (89%), followed by landslides (6%, almost 600 M USD) as reported in Hilker et al. (2009) for the period 1972-2007. A high-resolution gridded daily precipitation dataset is combined with a landslide inventory containing over 2000 events in the period 1972-2012 to analyze rainfall thresholds that lead to landsliding in Switzerland. First triggering rainfall and landslides are co-located obtaining the distributions of triggering and non-triggering rainfall event properties at the scale of the precipitation data (2*2 km2) and considering 1 day as the interarrival time to separate events. Then rainfall thresholds are obtained by maximizing true positives (accurate predictions) while minimizing false negatives (false alarms), using the True Skill Statistic. The best predictive performance is obtained by the intensity-duration ID threshold curve, followed by peak daily intensity (Imax) and mean event intensity (Imean). Event duration by itself has very low predictive power. In addition to country-wide thresholds, local ones are also defined by regionalization based on surface erodibility and local long-term climate (mean daily precipitation). Different Imax thresholds are determined for each of the regions separately. It is found that wetter local climate and lower erodibility lead to significantly higher rainfall thresholds required to trigger landslides. However, the improvement in model performance due to regionalization is marginal and much lower than what can be achieved by having a high quality landslide database. In order to validate the performance of the Imax rainfall threshold model, reference cases will be presented in which the landslide locations and timing are randomized and the landslide sample size is reduced. Jack-knife and cross-validation experiments demonstrate that the model is robust. The results highlight the potential of using rainfall I-D threshold curves and Imax threshold values for predicting the occurrence of landslides on a country or regional scale even with daily precipitation data, with possible applications in landslide warning systems.

A lightning-based nowcast-warning approach for short-duration rainfall events: Development and testing over Beijing during the warm seasons of 2006-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin

2018-06-01

Nowcasting short-duration (i.e., <6 h) rainfall (SDR) events is examined using total [i.e., cloud-to-ground (CG) and intra-cloud (IC)] lightning observations over the Beijing Metropolitan Region (BMR) during the warm seasons of 2006-2007. A total of 928 moderate and 554 intense SDR events, i.e., with the respective hourly rainfall rates (HRR) of 10-20 and ≥20 mm h-1, are utilized to estimate sharp-increasing rates in rainfall and lightning flash, termed as rainfall and lightning jumps, respectively. By optimizing the parameters in a lightning jump and a rainfall jump algorithm, their different jump intensity grades are verified for the above two categories of SDR events. Then, their corresponding graded nowcast-warning models are developed for the moderate and intense SDR events, respectively, with a low-grade warning for hitting more SDR events and a high-grade warning for reducing false alarms. Any issued warning in the nowcast-warning models is designed to last for 2 h after the occurrence of a lightning jump. It is demonstrated that the low-grade warnings can have the probability of detection (POD) of 67.8% (87.0%) and the high-grade warnings have the false alarms ratio (FAR) of 27.0% (22.2%) for the moderate (intense) SDR events, with an averaged lead time of 36.7 (52.0) min. The nowcast-warning models are further validated using three typical heavy-rain-producing storms that are independent from those used to develop the models. Results show that the nowcast-warning models can provide encouraging early warnings for the associated SDR events from the regional to meso-γ scales, indicating that they have a great potential in being applied to the other regions where high-resolution total lightning observations are available.

Climate change impacts on rainfall and temperature in sugarcane growing Upper Gangetic Plains of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Ram Ratan; Srivastava, Tapendra Kumar; Singh, Pushpa

2018-01-01

Assessment of variability in climate extremes is crucial for managing their aftermath on crops. Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), a major C4 crop, dominates the Upper Gangetic Plain (UGP) in India and is vulnerable to both direct and indirect effects of changes in temperature and rainfall. The present study was taken up to assess the weekly, monthly, seasonal, and annual trends of rainfall and temperature variability during the period 1956-2015 (60 years) for envisaging the probabilities of different levels of rainfall suitable for sugarcane in UGP in the present climate scenario. The analysis revealed that 87% of total annual rainfall was received during southwest monsoon months (June-September) while post-monsoon (October to February) and pre-monsoon months (March-May) accounted for only 9.4 and 3.6%, respectively. There was a decline in both monthly and annual normal rainfall during the period 1986-2015 as compared to 1956-1985, and an annual rainfall deficiency of 205.3 mm was recorded. Maximum monthly normal rainfall deficiencies of 52.8, 84.2, and 54.0 mm were recorded during the months of July, August, and September, respectively, while a minimum rainfall deficiency of 2.2 mm was observed in November. There was a decline by 196.3 mm in seasonal normal rainfall during June-September (kharif). The initial probability of a week going dry was higher (> 70%) from the 1st to the 25th week; however, standard meteorological weeks (SMW) 26 to 37 had more than 50% probability of going wet. The normal annual maximum temperature (Tmax) decreased by 0.4 °C while normal annual minimum temperatures (Tmin) increased by 0.21 °C. Analysis showed that there was an increase in frequency of drought from 1986 onwards in the zone and a monsoon rainfall deficit by about 21.25% during June-September which coincided with tillering and grand growth stage of sugarcane. The imposed drought during the growth and elongation phase is emerging as a major constraint in realizing high cane productivity in the zone. Strategies for mitigating the negative impacts of rainfall and temperature variability on sugarcane productivity through improvement in existing adaptation strategies are proposed.

Decadal features of heavy rainfall events in eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Huopo; Sun, Jianqi; Fan, Ke

2012-06-01

Based on daily precipitation data, the spatial-temporal features of heavy rainfall events (HREs) during 1960-2009 are investigated. The results indicate that the HREs experienced strong decadal variability in the past 50 years, and the decadal features varied across regions. More HRE days are observed in the 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s over Northeast China (NEC); in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1990s over North China (NC); in the early 1960s, 1980s, and 2000s over the Huaihe River basin (HR); in the 1970s-1990s over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YR); and in the 1970s and 1990s over South China (SC). These decadal changes of HRE days in eastern China are closely associated with the decadal variations of water content and stratification stability of the local atmosphere. The intensity of HREs in each sub-region is also characterized by strong decadal variability. The HRE intensity and frequency co-vary on the long-term trend, and show consistent variability over NEC, NC, and YR, but inconsistent variability over SC and HR. Further analysis of the relationships between the annual rainfall and HRE frequency as well as intensity indicates that the HRE frequency is the major contributor to the total rainfall variability in eastern China, while the HRE intensity shows only relative weak contribution.

Magnified Sediment Export of Small Mountainous Rivers in Taiwan: Chain Reactions from Increased Rainfall Intensity under Global Warming.

PubMed

Lee, Tsung-Yu; Huang, Jr-Chuan; Lee, Jun-Yi; Jien, Shih-Hao; Zehetner, Franz; Kao, Shuh-Ji

2015-01-01

Fluvial sediment export from small mountainous rivers in Oceania has global biogeochemical significance affecting the turnover rate and export of terrestrial carbon, which might be speeding up at the recognized conditions of increased rainfall intensity. In this study, the historical runoff and sediment export from 16 major rivers in Taiwan are investigated and separated into an early stage (1970-1989) and a recent stage (1990-2010) to illustrate the changes of both runoff and sediment export. The mean daily sediment export from Taiwan Island in the recent stage significantly increased by >80% with subtle increase in daily runoff, indicating more sediment being delivered to the ocean per unit of runoff in the recent stage. The medians of the runoff depth and sediment yield extremes (99.0-99.9 percentiles) among the 16 rivers increased by 6.5%-37% and 62%-94%, respectively, reflecting the disproportionately magnified response of sediment export to the increased runoff. Taiwan is facing increasing event rainfall intensity which has resulted in chain reactions on magnified runoff and sediment export responses. As the globe is warming, rainfall extremes, which are proved to be temperature-dependent, very likely intensify runoff and trigger more sediment associated hazards. Such impacts might occur globally because significant increases of high-intensity precipitation have been observed not only in Taiwan but over most land areas of the globe.

Slope-velocity equilibrium and evolution of surface roughness on a stony hillslope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, Mark A.; Polyakov, Viktor O.; Nichols, Mary H.; Hernandez, Mariano; Li, Li; Zhao, Ying; Armendariz, Gerardo

2017-06-01

Slope-velocity equilibrium is hypothesized as a state that evolves naturally over time due to the interaction between overland flow and surface morphology, wherein steeper areas develop a relative increase in physical and hydraulic roughness such that flow velocity is a unique function of overland flow rate independent of slope gradient. This study tests this hypothesis under controlled conditions. Artificial rainfall was applied to 2 m by 6 m plots at 5, 12, and 20 % slope gradients. A series of simulations were made with two replications for each treatment with measurements of runoff rate, velocity, rock cover, and surface roughness. Velocities measured at the end of each experiment were a unique function of discharge rates, independent of slope gradient or rainfall intensity. Physical surface roughness was greater at steeper slopes. The data clearly showed that there was no unique hydraulic coefficient for a given slope, surface condition, or rainfall rate, with hydraulic roughness greater at steeper slopes and lower intensities. This study supports the hypothesis of slope-velocity equilibrium, implying that use of hydraulic equations, such as Chezy and Manning, in hillslope-scale runoff models is problematic because the coefficients vary with both slope and rainfall intensity.

Radar Detected Rainfall Intensity As An Input For Shallow Landslides Slope Stability Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leoni, L.; Rossi, G.; Catani, F.; Righini, G.; Rudari, R.

2008-12-01

The term "shallow landslides" is widely used in literature to describe a slope movement of limited size that mainly develops in soils up to a maximum of a few meters. Shallow landslides are usually triggered by heavy rainfall because, as the water starts to infiltrate in the soil, the pore-water pressure increases so that the shear strength of the soil is reduced leading to slope failure. For this work we have developed a distributed hydrological-geotechnical model for the forecasting of the temporal and spatial distribution of shallow landslide to be used as a warning system for civil protection purpose. The main goal of this work is the use of radar detected rainfall intensity as the input for the hydrological simulation of the infiltration. Using the rainfall pattern detected by the radar is in fact possible to dynamically control the redistribution of groundwater pressure associated with transient infiltration of rain so as to infer the slope stability of the studied area. The model deals with both saturated and unsaturated conditions. Two pilot sites have been chosen to develop and test this model: the Armea basin (Liguria, Italy) and the Ischia Island (Campania, Italy). In recent years several severe rainstorms have occurred in both these areas. In at least two cases these have triggered numerous shallow landslides that have caused victims and damaged roads, buildings and agricultural activities. In its current stage the basic basin-scale model applied for predicting the probable location of shallow landslides involves several stand-alone components. A module for estimating the groundwater pressure head distribution according to radar detected rainfall intensity, a soil depth prediction scheme and a limit-equilibrium infinite slope stability algorithm which produces a factor of safety (FS). The additional ancillary data required have been collected during the field work. The single components are seamlessly integrated into a system that automatically publishes constantly updated FS values to a WebGIS in near-real- time so that local administrators responsible for public safety can access and download the data from the internet. This system has been running for a few months and is now being validated. Several types of problems hinder a correct validation of the system. One major obstacle was overcome when major storms triggered several tens of soil slips in December 2006 for the Armea basin and in April 2006 for Ischia. This events provided both the necessary rainfall data for the soil saturation component, which until then for previous occurred landslides was lacking, and a new landslide inventory for comparison with the FS produced by the slope stability model for the same event. The inventory was derived from a newly acquired VHR satellite image. Another important aspect of the research being performed regards the assessment of the relative importance of the different parameters involved in the limit-equilibrium infinite slope stability model. This statistical sensitivity analysis has the aim of determining which errors in the input variables slope gradient, soil depth, soil saturation, cohesion and angle of internal friction produce the largest errors in the output FS values. Preliminary results indicate the importance of topographic attributes and of soil depth.

Effect of forest clear-cutting on landslide occurrences: Analysis of rainfall thresholds at Mt. Ichifusa, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Hitoshi; Murakami, Wataru; Daimaru, Hiromu; Oguchi, Takashi

2017-01-01

Vegetation cover is an important factor for rainfall-induced landslides. We analyzed the effect of forest clear-cutting on the initiation of landslides using empirical rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds at Mt. Ichifusa, Japan, which is characterized by granitic rocks. Extensive clear-cutting was conducted for the forest industry during the late 1960s in the northern part of Mt. Ichifusa. This single episode of clear-cutting caused frequent shallow landslides triggered by rainfall. We interpreted orthorectified aerial photographs from 1969, 1976, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 1999, and 2005 using GIS and mapped landslides based on these photographs. We then analyzed all rainfall events of the warm seasons (Apr.-Oct.) of 1952-2011 (60 years) based on hourly rain gauge data. We used basic rainfall parameters such as mean rainfall intensity (I, mm/h) and duration (D, h) and estimated the return periods of these rainfall conditions. We investigated rainfall I-D thresholds for landslide occurrences in each period represented by the aerial photographs and assessed the relationships between landslide occurrences and topographic characteristics from 10-m DEMs. The results show that several landslides occurred after clear-cutting before 1976 but that they have occurred most frequently during the periods 1976-1980, 1980-1985, and 1990-1995. Numerous landslides occurred in these years at steeper and gentler slopes in the clear-cut area, but few landslides occurred in the non-clear-cut area. Rainfall analysis demonstrates that rainfall I-D thresholds after clear-cutting declined to half of those of the non-clear-cut area. The return periods of these rainfall I-D thresholds also declined to 1 year for short durations of < 12 h and to < 3 years for 72 h in the clear-cut area. Our findings underscore the substantial hysteresis effects between clear-cutting and landslide occurrences at Mt. Ichifusa.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, Narendra; Solanki, Raman; Ojha, N.

We present the measurements of cloud-base height variations over Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Science, Nainital (79.45 degrees E, 29.37 degrees N, 1958 m amsl) obtained from Vaisala Ceilometer, during the nearly year-long Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX). The cloud-base measurements are analysed in conjunction with collocated measurements of rainfall, to study the possible contributions from different cloud types to the observed monsoonal rainfall during June to September 2011. The summer monsoon of 2011 was a normal monsoon year with total accumulated rainfall of 1035.8 mm during June-September with a maximum during July (367.0 mm) and minimum during September (222.3more » mm). The annual mean monsoon rainfall over Nainital is 1440 +/- 430 mm. The total rainfall measured during other months (October 2011-March 2012) was only 9% of that observed during the summer monsoon. The first cloud-base height varied from about 31 m above ground level (AGL) to a maximum of 7.6 km AGL during the summer monsoon period of 2011. It is found that about 70% of the total rain is observed only when the first cloud-base height varies between surface and 2 km AGL, indicating that most of the rainfall at high altitude stations such as Nainital is associated with stratiform low-level clouds. However, about 25% of the total rainfall is being contributed by clouds between 2 and 6 km. The occurrences of high-altitude cumulus clouds are observed to be only 2-4%. This study is an attempt to fill a major gap of measurements over the topographically complex and observationally sparse northern Indian region providing the evaluation data for atmospheric models and therefore, have implications towards the better predictions of monsoon rainfall and the weather components over this region.« less

Climate signature of Northwest U.S. precipitation Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushnir, Y.; Nakamura, J.

2017-12-01

The climate signature of precipitation extremes in the Northwest U.S. - the region that includes Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming - is studied using composite analysis of atmospheric fields leading to and associated with extreme rainfall events. A K-Medoids cluster analysis is applied to winter (November-February) months, maximum 5-day precipitation amounts calculated from 1-degree gridded daily rainfall between 1950/51 and 2013/14. The clustering divides the region into three sub-regions: one over the far eastern part of the analysis domain, includeing most of Montana and Wyoming. Two other sub-regions are in the west, lying north and south of the latitude of 45N. Using the time series corresponding to the Medoid centers, we extract the largest (top 5%) monthly extreme events to form the basis for the composite analysis. The main circulation feature distinguishing a 5-day extreme precipitation event in the two western sub-regions of the Northwest is the presence of a large, blocking, high pressure anomaly over the Gulf of Alaska about a week before the beginning of the 5-day intense precipitation event. The high pressure center intensifies considerably with time, drifting slowly westward, up to a day before the extreme event. During that time, a weak low pressure centers appears at 30N, to the southwest of the high, deepening as it moves east. As the extreme rainfall event is about to begin, the now deep low is encroaching on the Northwest coast while its southern flank taps well south into the subtropical Pacific, drawing moisture from as south as 15N. During the 5-day extreme precipitation event the high pressure center moves west and weakens while the now intense low converges large amounts of subtropical moisture to precipitate over the western Northwest. The implication of this analysis for extended range prediction is assessed.

Strategies to take into account variations in extreme rainfall events for design storms in urban area: an example over Naples (Southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercogliano, P.; Rianna, G.

2017-12-01

Eminent works highlighted how available observations display ongoing increases in extreme rainfall events while climate models assess them for future. Although the constraints in rainfall networks observations and uncertainties in climate modelling currently affect in significant way investigations, the huge impacts potentially induced by climate changes (CC) suggest adopting effective adaptation measures in order to take proper precautions. In this regard, design storms are used by engineers to size hydraulic infrastructures potentially affected by direct (e.g. pluvial/urban flooding) and indirect (e.g. river flooding) effects of extreme rainfall events. Usually they are expressed as IDF curves, mathematical relationships between rainfall Intensity, Duration, and the return period (frequency, F). They are estimated interpreting through Extreme Theories Statistical Theories (ETST) past rainfall records under the assumption of steady conditions resulting then unsuitable under climate change. In this work, a methodology to estimate future variations in IDF curves is presented and carried out for the city of Naples (Southern Italy). In this regard, the Equidistance Quantile Matching Approach proposed by Sivrastav et al. (2014) is adopted. According it, daily-subdaily maximum precipitation observations [a] and the analogous daily data provided by climate projections on current [b] and future time spans [c] are interpreted in IDF terms through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) approach. After, quantile based mapping approach is used to establish a statistical relationship between cumulative distribution functions resulting by GEV of [a] and [b] (spatial downscaling) and [b] and [c] functions (temporal downscaling). Coupling so-obtained relations permits generating IDF curves under CC assumption. To account for uncertainties in future projections, all climate simulations available for the area in Euro-Cordex multimodel ensemble at 0.11° (about 12 km) are considered under three different concentration scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results appear largely influenced by models, RCPs and time horizon of interest; nevertheless, clear indications of increases are detectable although with different magnitude on the different precipitation durations.

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Flood Frequency Analysis for Transportation Design

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

Planning for construction of roads and bridges over rivers or floodplains includes a hydrologic analysis of rainfall amount and intensity : for a defined period. Infrastructure design must be based on accurate rainfall estimates how much (intensi...

Factors of the Development of Water Erosion in the Zone of Recreation Activity in the Ol'khon Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Znamenskaya, T. I.; Vanteeva, J. V.; Solodyankina, S. V.

2018-02-01

Specific features of water erosion of thin soils under conditions of nonpercolative water regime and intense recreational loads were studied in the Ol'khon region (Irkutsk oblast). An experiment on the transfer of terrigenous particles under the impact of rainfall simulation was performed. A thorough description of landscape characteristics affecting water erosion development was made. As a result, a multiple regression equation linking the transported matter with the slope steepness, projective cover of vegetation, the degree of vegetation degradation, and the fine sand content in the upper soil horizon was developed; the multiple correlation coefficient R reached 0.86. On this basis, the map of water erosion assessment for the study area was compiled with the use of landscape and topographic maps. The maximum intensity of water erosion is typical of the anthropogenically transformed landscapes on steep slopes with the low vegetative cover on the mountainous noncalcareous steppe soils and on thin loamy sandy surface-gravelly chestnut-like soils.

Performance of post-processing algorithms for rainfall intensity using measurements from tipping-bucket rain gauges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagnaro, Mattia; Colli, Matteo; Lanza, Luca Giovanni; Chan, Pak Wai

2016-11-01

Eight rainfall events recorded from May to September 2013 at Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) have been selected to investigate the performance of post-processing algorithms used to calculate the rainfall intensity (RI) from tipping-bucket rain gauges (TBRGs). We assumed a drop-counter catching-type gauge as a working reference and compared rainfall intensity measurements with two calibrated TBRGs operated at a time resolution of 1 min. The two TBRGs differ in their internal mechanics, one being a traditional single-layer dual-bucket assembly, while the other has two layers of buckets. The drop-counter gauge operates at a time resolution of 10 s, while the time of tipping is recorded for the two TBRGs. The post-processing algorithms employed for the two TBRGs are based on the assumption that the tip volume is uniformly distributed over the inter-tip period. A series of data of an ideal TBRG is reconstructed using the virtual time of tipping derived from the drop-counter data. From the comparison between the ideal gauge and the measurements from the two real TBRGs, the performances of different post-processing and correction algorithms are statistically evaluated over the set of recorded rain events. The improvement obtained by adopting the inter-tip time algorithm in the calculation of the RI is confirmed. However, by comparing the performance of the real and ideal TBRGs, the beneficial effect of the inter-tip algorithm is shown to be relevant for the mid-low range (6-50 mmh-1) of rainfall intensity values (where the sampling errors prevail), while its role vanishes with increasing RI in the range where the mechanical errors prevail.

Development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves at ungauged sites: risk management under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liew, San Chuin; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Liong, Shie-Yui

2014-12-01

The impact of a changing climate is already being felt on several hydrological systems both on a regional and sub-regional scale of the globe. Southeast Asia is one of the regions strongly affected by climate change. With climate change, one of the anticipated impacts is an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall which further increase the region's flood catastrophes, human casualties and economic loss. Optimal mitigation measures can be undertaken only when stormwater systems are designed using rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves derived from a long and good quality rainfall data. Developing IDF curves for the future climate can be even more challenging especially for ungauged sites. The current practice to derive current climate's IDF curves for ungauged sites is, for example, to `borrow' or `interpolate' data from regions of climatologically similar characteristics. Recent measures to derive IDF curves for present climate was performed by extracting rainfall data from a high spatial resolution Regional Climate Model driven by ERA-40 reanalysis dataset. This approach has been demonstrated on an ungauged site (Java, Indonesia) and the results were quite promising. In this paper, the authors extend the application of the approach to other ungauged sites particularly in Peninsular Malaysia. The results of the study undoubtedly have significance contribution in terms of local and regional hydrology (Malaysia and Southeast Asian countries). The anticipated impacts of climate change especially increase in rainfall intensity and its frequency appreciates the derivation of future IDF curves in this study. It also provides policy makers better information on the adequacy of storm drainage design, for the current climate at the ungauged sites, and the adequacy of the existing storm drainage to cope with the impacts of climate change.

The effect of leaf litter cover on surface runoff and soil erosion in Northern China.

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Niu, Jianzhi; Xie, Baoyuan

2014-01-01

The role of leaf litter in hydrological processes and soil erosion of forest ecosystems is poorly understood. A field experiment was conducted under simulated rainfall in runoff plots with a slope of 10%. Two common types of litter in North China (from Quercus variabilis, representing broadleaf litter, and Pinus tabulaeformis, representing needle leaf litter), four amounts of litter, and five rainfall intensities were tested. Results revealed that the litter reduced runoff and delayed the beginning of runoff, but significantly reduced soil loss (p<0.05). Average runoff yield was 29.5% and 31.3% less than bare-soil plot, and for Q. variabilis and P. tabulaeformis, respectively, and average sediment yield was 85.1% and 79.9% lower. Rainfall intensity significantly affected runoff (R = 0.99, p<0.05), and the efficiency in runoff reduction by litter decreased considerably. Runoff yield and the runoff coefficient increased dramatically by 72.9 and 5.4 times, respectively. The period of time before runoff appeared decreased approximately 96.7% when rainfall intensity increased from 5.7 to 75.6 mm h-1. Broadleaf and needle leaf litter showed similarly relevant effects on runoff and soil erosion control, since no significant differences (p≤0.05) were observed in runoff and sediment variables between two litter-covered plots. In contrast, litter mass was probably not a main factor in determining runoff and sediment because a significant correlation was found only with sediment in Q. variabilis litter plot. Finally, runoff yield was significantly correlated (p<0.05) with sediment yield. These results suggest that the protective role of leaf litter in runoff and erosion processes was crucial, and both rainfall intensity and litter characteristics had an impact on these processes.

The Effect of Leaf Litter Cover on Surface Runoff and Soil Erosion in Northern China

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang; Niu, Jianzhi; Xie, Baoyuan

2014-01-01

The role of leaf litter in hydrological processes and soil erosion of forest ecosystems is poorly understood. A field experiment was conducted under simulated rainfall in runoff plots with a slope of 10%. Two common types of litter in North China (from Quercus variabilis, representing broadleaf litter, and Pinus tabulaeformis, representing needle leaf litter), four amounts of litter, and five rainfall intensities were tested. Results revealed that the litter reduced runoff and delayed the beginning of runoff, but significantly reduced soil loss (p<0.05). Average runoff yield was 29.5% and 31.3% less than bare-soil plot, and for Q. variabilis and P. tabulaeformis, respectively, and average sediment yield was 85.1% and 79.9% lower. Rainfall intensity significantly affected runoff (R = 0.99, p<0.05), and the efficiency in runoff reduction by litter decreased considerably. Runoff yield and the runoff coefficient increased dramatically by 72.9 and 5.4 times, respectively. The period of time before runoff appeared decreased approximately 96.7% when rainfall intensity increased from 5.7 to 75.6 mm h−1. Broadleaf and needle leaf litter showed similarly relevant effects on runoff and soil erosion control, since no significant differences (p≤0.05) were observed in runoff and sediment variables between two litter-covered plots. In contrast, litter mass was probably not a main factor in determining runoff and sediment because a significant correlation was found only with sediment in Q. variabilis litter plot. Finally, runoff yield was significantly correlated (p<0.05) with sediment yield. These results suggest that the protective role of leaf litter in runoff and erosion processes was crucial, and both rainfall intensity and litter characteristics had an impact on these processes. PMID:25232858

[Comparative study of N, P output and eutrophication risk in runoff water in cross ridge and longitudinal ridge].

PubMed

Yu, Xing-Xiu; Ma, Qian; Liu, Qian-Jin; Lü, Guo-An

2011-02-01

Field in-situ rainfall simulation tests with two rainfall intensities (40 mm x h(-1) and 70 mm x h(-1)), which were conducted at typical sloping cropland in Yimeng mountainous area, were designed to analyze the output characteristics of dissolved inorganic nitrogen, Inorganic-N (NO3(-)-N, NH4(+) -N) and dissolved phosphorus (DP) in runoff water, as well as to compare the eutrophication risk in this water by calculating three ratios of Inorganic-N/DP, NO3(-) -N/DP, and NH4(+)-N/DP, respectively, in cross ridge and longitudinal ridge tillage methods. Results showed that, under the same rainfall intensity, the DP level in runoff water was higher in cross ridge than longitudinal ridge, while the change of different Inorganic-N level between the two tillage methods were not consistent. Cross ridge could effectively reduce runoff and the output rate of Inorganic-N and DP when compared to the longitudinal ridge tillage, which would be more outstanding with the increases of rainfall intensities. The losses of Inorganic-N and DP in runoff water were 43% and 5% less, respectively, in cross ridge than longitudinal ridge at the 40 mm x h(-1) rainfall intensity, and were 68% and 55%, respectively, at 70 mm x h(-1). The higher Inorganic-N/DP and NO3(-) -N/DP ratios suggest that runoff water from either cross ridge or longitudinal ridge tillage have a certain eutrophication risk, which present an increasing trend during the precipitation-runoff process. Compared with longitudinal ridge, cross ridge can not only hinder the increasing trend of eutrophication risk, but also can significantly lower it, and thus effectively reduce the effect of sloping cropland runoff on the eutrophication processes of receiving waters.

Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, S.H.; Gartner, J.E.; Wilson, R.C.; Bowers, J.C.; Laber, J.L.

2008-01-01

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings. Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10??min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3??h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1??h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0??mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D-??0.7 and I = 9.5D-??0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours). Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16??h, of low-intensity (2-10??mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33??h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4??mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D-0.4, and I = 7.2D-0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D-0.5 is approximately 25??mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires. The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes. Crown Copyright ?? 2007.

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2018-03-01

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

Untreated runoff quality from roof and road surfaces in a low intensity rainfall climate.

PubMed

Charters, Frances J; Cochrane, Thomas A; O'Sullivan, Aisling D

2016-04-15

Sediment and heavy metals in stormwater runoff are key pollutants of urban waterways, and their presence in stormwater is driven by climatic factors such as rainfall intensity. This study describes the total suspended solids (TSS) and heavy metal concentrations found in runoff from four different urban surfaces within a residential/institutional catchment, in a climate where rainfall is typically of low intensity (<5.1mm·h(-1)). The results were compared to untreated runoff quality from a compilation of international studies. The road runoff had the highest TSS concentrations, while copper and galvanized roof runoff had the highest copper and zinc concentrations, respectively. Pollutant concentrations were found to be significantly different between surfaces; quantification and prediction of pollutant contributions from urban surfaces should thus take account of the different surface materials, instead of being aggregated into more generalized categories such as land use. The TSS and heavy metal concentrations were found to be at the low to medium end of ranges observed internationally, except for total copper and zinc concentrations generated by dissolution of copper and galvanized roofing material respectively; these concentrations were at least as high as those reported internationally. TSS wash-off from the roofs was seen to be a source-limited process, where all available TSS is washed off during the rain event despite the low intensity rainfall, whereas both road TSS and heavy metals wash-off from roof and road surfaces appeared to all be transport-limited and therefore some carryover of pollutants occurs between rain events. A first flush effect was seen from most surfaces for TSS, but not for heavy metals. This study demonstrates that in low intensity rainfall climates, quantification of untreated runoff quality from key individual surface types in a catchment are needed to enable development of targeted and appropriately sized stormwater treatment systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.