High-frequency daily temperature variability in China and its relationship to large-scale circulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Fu-Ting; Fu, Congbin; Qian, Yun

Two measures of intra-seasonal variability, indicated respectively by standard deviations (SD) and day-to-day (DTD) fluctuations denoted by absolute differences between adjacent 2-day periods, as well as their relationships with large-scale circulation patterns were investigated in China during 1962–2008 on the basis of homogenized daily temperature records from 549 local stations and reanalysis data. Our results show that both the SD and DTD of daily minimum temperatures (Tmin) in summer as well as the minimum and maximum temperatures in winter have been decreasing, while the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) variability in summer is fluctuating more, especially over southern China. In summer,more » an attribution analysis indicates that the intensity of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and high-level East Asian Subtropical Jet stream (EASJ) are positively correlated with both SD and DTD, but the correlation coefficients are generally greater with the SD than with the DTD of the daily maximum temperature, Tmax. In contrast, the location of the EASJ shows the opposite correlation pattern, with intensity regarding the correlation with both SD and DTD. In winter, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is negatively correlated with both the SD and DTD of the daily minimum temperature, but its intra-seasonal variability exhibits good agreement with the SD of the Tmin. The Siberian High acts differently with respect to the SD and DTD of the Tmin, demonstrating a regionally consistent positive correlation with the SD. Overall, the large-scale circulation can well explain the intra-seasonal SD, but DTD fluctuations may be more local and impacted by local conditions, such as changes in the temperature itself, the land surface, and so on.« less

Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

2012-04-01

In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

Drivers of Intra-Summer Seasonality and Daily Variability of Coastal Low Cloudiness in California Subregions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, R. E.; Iacobellis, S.; Gershunov, A.; Williams, P.; Cayan, D. R.

2014-12-01

Summertime low cloud intrusion into the terrestrial west coast of North America impacts human, ecological, and logistical systems. Over a broad region of the West Coast, summer (May - September) coastal low cloudiness (CLC) varies coherently on interannual to interdecadal timescales and has been found to be organized by North Pacific sea surface temperature. Broad-scale studies of low stratiform cloudiness over ocean basins also find that the season of maximum low stratus corresponds to the season of maximum lower tropospheric stability (LTS) or estimated inversion strength. We utilize a 18-summer record of CLC derived from NASA/NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) at 4km resolution over California (CA) to make a more nuanced spatial and temporal examination of intra-summer variability in CLC and its drivers. We find that uniform spatial coherency over CA is not apparent for intra-summer variability in CLC. On monthly to daily timescales, at least two distinct subregions of coastal California (CA) can be identified, where relationships between meteorology and stratus variability appear to change throughout summer in each subregion. While north of Point Conception and offshore the timing of maximum CLC is closely coincident with maximum LTS, in the Southern CA Bight and northern Baja region, maximum CLC occurs up to about a month before maximum LTS. It appears that summertime CLC in this southern region is not as strongly related as in the northern region to LTS. In particular, although the relationship is strong in May and June, starting in July the daily relationship between LTS and CLC in the south begins to deteriorate. Preliminary results indicate a moderate association between decreased CLC in the south and increased precipitable water content above 850 hPa on daily time scales beginning in July. Relationships between daily CLC variability and meteorological variables including winds, inland temperatures, relative humidity, and geopotential heights within and above the marine boundary layer are investigated and dissected by month, CA subregion, and cloud height. The rich spatial detail of the satellite derived CLC record is utilized to examine the propagation in time and space of CLC on synoptic scales within and among subregions.

Variability of AVHRR-Derived Clear-Sky Surface Temperature over the Greenland Ice Sheet.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, Julienne; Steffen, Konrad

1998-01-01

The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer is used to derive surface temperatures for one satellite pass under clear skies over the Greenland ice sheet from 1989 through 1993. The results of these temperatures are presented as monthly means, and their spatial and temporal variability are discussed. Accuracy of the dry snow surface temperatures is estimated to be better than 1 K during summer. This error is expected to increase during polar night due to problems in cloud identification. Results indicate the surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is strongly dominated by topography, with minimum surface temperatures associated with the high elevation regions. In the summer, maximum surface temperatures occur during July along the western coast and southern tip of the ice sheet. Minimum temperatures are found at the summit during summer and move farther north during polar night. Large interannual variability in surface temperatures occurs during winter associated with katabatic storm events. Summer temperatures show little variation, although 1992 stands out as being colder than the other years. The reason for the lower temperatures during 1992 is believed to be a result of the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo.

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and humidex index in the United Arab Emirates over 1948-2014.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H. W.; Ouarda, T.

2015-12-01

This study deals with the analysis of the characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Middle East, using NCEP reanalysis gridded data, for the summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) seasons. Trends in the occurrences of three types of heat spells during 1948-2014 are studied by both Linear Regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are also investigated. To better understand the effects of heat spells on public health, the Humidex, a combination index of ambient temperature and relative humidity, is also used. Using percentile threshold, temperature (Humidex) Type-A and Type-B heat spells are defined respectively by daily maximum and minimum temperature (Humidex). Type-C heat spells are defined as the joint occurrence of Type-A and Type-B heat spells at the same time. In the Middle East, it is found that no coherent trend in temperature Type-A heat spells is observed. However, the occurrences of temperature Type-B and C heat spells have consistently increased since 1948. For Humidex heat spells, coherently increased activities of all three types of heat spells are observed in the area. During the summer, the magnitude of the positive trends in Humidex heat spells are generally stronger than temperature heat spells. More than half of the locations in the area show significantly negative DTR trends in the summer, but the trends vary according to the region in the winter. Annual mean temperature has increased an average by 0.5°C, but it is mainly associated with the daily minimum temperature which has warmed up by 0.84°C.Daily maximum temperature showed no significant trends. The warming is hence stronger in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures resulting in a decrease in DTR by 0.16 °C per decade. This study indicates hence that the UAE has not become hotter, but it has become less cold during 1948 to 2014.

Warm Mediterranean mid-Holocene summers inferred from fossil midge assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samartin, Stéphanie; Heiri, Oliver; Joos, Fortunat; Renssen, Hans; Franke, Jörg; Brönnimann, Stefan; Tinner, Willy

2017-02-01

Understanding past climate trends is key for reliable projections of global warming and associated risks and hazards. Uncomfortably large discrepancies between vegetation-based summer temperature reconstructions (mainly based on pollen) and climate model results have been reported for the current interglacial, the Holocene. For the Mediterranean region these reconstructions indicate cooler-than-present mid-Holocene summers, in contrast with expectations based on climate models and long-term changes in summer insolation. We present new quantitative and replicated Holocene summer temperature reconstructions based on fossil chironomid midges from the northern central Mediterranean region. The Holocene thermal maximum is reconstructed 9,000-5,000 years ago and estimated to have been 1-2 °C warmer in mean July temperature than the recent pre-industrial period, consistent with glacier and marine records, and with transient climate model runs. This combined evidence implies that widely used pollen-based summer temperature reconstructions in the Mediterranean area are significantly biased by precipitation or other forcings such as early land use. Our interpretation can resolve the previous discrepancy between climate models and quantitative palaeotemperature records for millennial-scale Holocene summer temperature trends in the Mediterranean region. It also suggests that pollen-based evidence for cool mid-Holocene summers in other semi-arid to arid regions of the Northern Hemisphere may have to be reconsidered, with potential implications for global-scale reconstructions.

Spring and Summer Proliferation of Floating Macroalgae in a Mediterranean Coastal Lagoon (Tancada Lagoon, Ebro Delta, NE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menéndez, M.; Comín, F. A.

2000-08-01

During the last 10 years, a drastic change in the structure of the community of primary producers has been observed in Tancada Lagoon (Ebro Delta, NE Spain). This consisted of a decrease in the abundance of submerged rooted macrophyte cover and a spring and summer increase in floating macroalgae. Two spatial patterns have been observed. In the west part of the lagoon, Chaetomorpha linum Kützing, dominated during winter and decreased progressively in spring when Cladophora sp. reached its maximum development. In the east part of the lagoon, higher macroalgal diversity was observed, together with lower cover in winter and early spring. Cladophora sp., Gracilaria verrucosa Papenfuss and Chondria tenuissima Agardh, increased cover and biomass in summer. Maximum photosynthetic production was observed in spring for G. verrucosa (10·9 mg O 2 g -1 DW h -1) and C. tenuissima (19·0 mg O 2 g -1 DW h -1) in contrast with Cladophora sp. (15·9 mg O 2 g -1 DW h -1) and Chaetomorpha linum (7·2 mg O 2 g -1 DW h -1) which reached maximum production in summer. Increased conductivity from reduced freshwater inflow, and higher water temperatures during periods of lagoon isolation, mainly in summer, were the main physical factors associated with an increase in floating macroalgal biomass across the lagoon. Reduced nitrogen availability and temperature-related changes in carbon availability during summer were related to a decrease in abundance of C. linum and increases in G. verrucosa and Cladophora sp.

Mainstem Clearwater River Study: Assessment for Salmonid Spawning, Incubation, and Rearing.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conner, William P.

1989-01-01

Chinook salmon reproduced naturally in the Clearwater River until damming of the lower mainstem in 1927 impeded upstream spawning migrations and decimated the populations. Removal of the Washington Water Power Dam in 1973 reopened upriver passage. This study was initiated to determine the feasibility of re-introducing chinook salmon into the lower mainstem Clearwater River based on the temperature and flow regimes, water quality, substrate, and invertebrate production since the completion of Dworshak Dam in 1972. Temperature data obtained from the United States Geological Survey gaging stations at Peck and Spalding, Idaho, were used to calculate average minimum and maximum watermore » temperature on a daily, monthly and yearly basis. The coldest and warmest (absolute minimum and maximum) temperatures that have occurred in the past 15 years were also identified. Our analysis indicates that average lower mainstem Clearwater River water temperatures are suitable for all life stages of chinook salmon, and also for steelhead trout rearing. In some years absolute maximum water temperatures in late summer may postpone adult staging and spawning. Absolute minimum temperatures have been recorded that could decrease overwinter survival of summer chinook juveniles and fall chinook eggs depending on the quality of winter hiding cover and the prevalence of intra-gravel freezing in the lower mainstem Clearwater River.« less

Relationships between water temperatures and upstream migration, cold water refuge use, and spawning of adult bull trout from the Lostine River, Oregon, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, P.J.; Dunham, J.B.; Sankovich, P.M.

2010-01-01

Understanding thermal habitat use by migratory fish has been limited by difficulties in matching fish locations with water temperatures. To describe spatial and temporal patterns of thermal habitat use by migratory adult bull trout, Salvelinus confluentus, that spawn in the Lostine River, Oregon, we employed a combination of archival temperature tags, radio tags, and thermographs. We also compared temperatures of the tagged fish to ambient water temperatures to determine if the fish were using thermal refuges. The timing and temperatures at which fish moved upstream from overwintering areas to spawning locations varied considerably among individuals. The annual maximum 7-day average daily maximum (7DADM) temperatures of tagged fish were 16-18 ??C and potentially as high as 21 ??C. Maximum 7DADM ambient water temperatures within the range of tagged fish during summer were 18-25 ??C. However, there was no evidence of the tagged fish using localized cold water refuges. Tagged fish appeared to spawn at 7DADM temperatures of 7-14 ??C. Maximum 7DADM temperatures of tagged fish and ambient temperatures at the onset of the spawning period in late August were 11-18 ??C. Water temperatures in most of the upper Lostine River used for spawning and rearing appear to be largely natural since there has been little development, whereas downstream reaches used by migratory bull trout are heavily diverted for irrigation. Although the population effects of these temperatures are unknown, summer temperatures and the higher temperatures observed for spawning fish appear to be at or above the upper range of suitability reported for the species. Published 2009. This article is a US Governmentwork and is in the public domain in the USA.

Association between weather conditions and the number of patients at the emergency room in an Argentine hospital

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusticucci, Matilde; Bettolli, Laura M.; de los Angeles Harris, M.

2002-02-01

The aim of this paper is to study the relationships between hospital emergencies and weather conditions by analysing summer and winter cases of patients requiring attention at the emergency room of a hospital in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Hospital data have been sorted into seven different diagnostic groups as follows: (1) respiratory, cardiovascular and chest-pain complaints; (2) digestive, genitourinary and abdominal complaints; (3) neurological and psychopathological disorders; (4) infections; (5) contusion and crushing, bone and muscle complaints; (6) skin and allergies and (7) miscellaneous complaints. In general, there is an increase of 16.7% in winter while, for group 2 and group 6, there are more patients in summer, 54% and 75% respectively. In summer, the total number of patients for group 6 shows a significant positive correlation with temperature and dew-point temperature, and a negative correlation with the sea-level pressure for the same day. In winter, the same relationship exists, however its correlation is not as strong. The lags observed between these three variables: maximum dew-point temperature, maximum temperature, minimum air pressure and the peaks in admissions are 1, 2 and 4 days respectively. In winter, increases in temperature and dew point and decreases in pressure are followed by a peak in admissions for group 2. In winter, there are significantly more cases in group 5 on warm, dry days and on warm, wet days in the summer.

The impact of summer rainfall on the temperature gradient along the United States-Mexico border

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balling, Robert C., Jr.

1989-01-01

The international border running through the Sonoran Desert in southern Arizona and northern Sonora is marked by a sharp discontinuity in albedo and grass cover. The observed differences in surface properties are a result of long-term, severe overgrazing of the Mexican lands. Recently, investigators have shown the Mexican side of the border to have higher surface and air temperatures when compared to adjacent areas in the United State. The differences in temperatures appear to be more associated with differential evapotranspiration rates than with albedo changes along the border. In this study, the impact of summer rainfall on the observed seasonal and daily gradient in maximum temperature is examined. On a seasonal time scale, the temperature gradient increases with higher moisture levels, probably due to a vegetative response on the United States' side of the border; at the daily level, the gradient in maximum temperature decreases after a rain event as evaporation rates equalize between the countries. The results suggest that temperature differences between vegetated and overgrazed landscapes in arid areas are highly dependent upon the amount of moisture available for evapotranspiration.

Comparison of MODIS Land Surface Temperature and Air Temperature over the Continental USA Meteorological Stations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Ping; Bounoua, Lahouari; Imhoff, Marc L.; Wolfe, Robert E.; Thome, Kurtis

2014-01-01

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Impervious Surface Area (ISA) and MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) are used in a spatial analysis to assess the surface-temperature-based urban heat island's (UHIS) signature on LST amplitude over the continental USA and to make comparisons to local air temperatures. Air-temperature-based UHIs (UHIA), calculated using the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) daily air temperatures, are compared with UHIS for urban areas in different biomes during different seasons. NLCD ISA is used to define urban and rural temperatures and to stratify the sampling for LST and air temperatures. We find that the MODIS LST agrees well with observed air temperature during the nighttime, but tends to overestimate it during the daytime, especially during summer and in nonforested areas. The minimum air temperature analyses show that UHIs in forests have an average UHIA of 1 C during the summer. The UHIS, calculated from nighttime LST, has similar magnitude of 1-2 C. By contrast, the LSTs show a midday summer UHIS of 3-4 C for cities in forests, whereas the average summer UHIA calculated from maximum air temperature is close to 0 C. In addition, the LSTs and air temperatures difference between 2006 and 2011 are in agreement, albeit with different magnitude.

Behavioral thermoregulation by juvenile spring and fall chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, during smoltification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauter, S.T.; Crawshaw, L.I.; Maule, A.G.

2001-01-01

Fall chinook salmon evolved to emigrate during the summer months. The shift in the temperature preference we observed in smolting fall chinook but not spring chinook salmon may reflect a phylogenetic adaptation to summer emigration by (1) providing directional orientation as fall chinook salmon move into the marine environment, (2) maintaining optimal gill function during emigration and seawater entry, and/or (3) resetting thermoregulatory set-points to support physiological homeostasis once smolted fish enter the marine environment. Phylogenetically determined temperature adaptations and responses to thermal stress may not protect fall chinook salmon from the recent higher summer water temperatures, altered annual thermal regimes, and degraded cold water refugia that result from hydropower regulation of the Columbia and Snake rivers. The long-term survival of fall chinook salmon will likely require restoration of normal annual thermographs and rigorous changes in land use practices to protect critical thermal refugia and control maximum summer water temperatures in reservoirs.

Effect of summer outdoor temperatures on work-related injuries in Quebec (Canada).

PubMed

Adam-Poupart, Ariane; Smargiassi, Audrey; Busque, Marc-Antoine; Duguay, Patrice; Fournier, Michel; Zayed, Joseph; Labrèche, France

2015-05-01

To quantify the associations between occupational injury compensations and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures in Quebec (Canada). The relationship between 374,078 injuries compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board (WCB) (between May and September, 2003-2010) and maximum daily outdoor temperatures was modelled using generalised linear models with negative binomial distributions. Pooled effect sizes for all 16 health regions of Quebec were estimated with random-effect models for meta-analyses for all compensations and by sex, age group, mechanism of injury, industrial sector and occupations (manual vs other) within each sector. Time lags and cumulative effect of temperatures were also explored. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures reached statistical significance for three health regions. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily compensations per 1°C increase was 1.002 (95% CI 1.002 to 1.003) for all health regions combined. Statistically significant positive associations were observed for men, workers aged less than 45 years, various industrial sectors with both indoor and outdoor activities, and for slips/trips/falls, contact with object/equipment and exposure to harmful substances/environment. Manual occupations were not systematically at higher risk than non-manual and mixed ones. This study is the first to quantify the association between work-related injury compensations and exposure to summer temperatures according to physical demands of the occupation and this warrants further investigations. In the context of global warming, results can be used to estimate future impacts of summer outdoor temperatures on workers, as well as to plan preventive interventions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Cross-correlation map analyses show weather variation influences on mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, Michigan, 1989-2005.

PubMed

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Ionides, Edward L; Knepper, Randall G; Stanuszek, William W; Walker, Edward D; Wilson, Mark L

2012-07-01

Weather is important determinant of mosquito abundance that, in turn, influences vectorborne disease dynamics. In temperate regions, transmission generally is seasonal as mosquito abundance and behavior varies with temperature, precipitation, and other meteorological factors. We investigated how such factors affected species-specific mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, MI, during a 17-yr period. Systematic sampling was undertaken at 22 trapping sites from May to September, during 1989-2005, for 19,228 trap-nights and 300,770 mosquitoes in total. Aedes vexans (Meigen), Culex pipiens L. and Culex restuans Theobald, the most abundant species, were analyzed. Weather data included local daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, total precipitation, and average relative humidity. In addition to standard statistical methods, cross-correlation mapping was used to evaluate temporal associations with various lag periods between weather variables and species-specific mosquito abundances. Overall, the average number of mosquitoes was 4.90 per trap-night for Ae. vexans, 2.12 for Cx. pipiens, and 1.23 for Cx. restuans. Statistical analysis of the considerable temporal variability in species-specific abundances indicated that precipitation and relative humidity 1 wk prior were significantly positively associated with Ae. vexans, whereas elevated maximum temperature had a negative effect during summer. Cx. pipiens abundance was positively influenced by the preceding minimum temperature in the early season but negatively associated with precipitation during summer and with maximum temperature in July and August. Cx. restuans showed the least weather association, with only relative humidity 2-24 d prior being linked positively during late spring-early summer. The recently developed analytical method applied in this study could enhance our understanding of the influences of weather variability on mosquito population dynamics.

Analysis of Summer 2002 Melt Extent on the Greenland Ice Sheet using MODIS and SSM/I Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Williams, Richard S., Jr.; Steffen, Konrad; Chien, Y. L.; Foster, James L.; Robinson, David A.; Riggs, George A.

2004-01-01

Previous work has shown that the summer of 2002 had the greatest area of snow melt extent on the Greenland ice sheet ever recorded using passive-microwave data. In this paper, we compare the 0 degree isotherm derived from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, with Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-derived melt, at the time of the maximum melt extent in 2002. To validate the MODIS-derived land-surface temperatures (LSTs), we compared the MODIS LSTs with air temperatures from nine stations (using 11 different data points) and found that they agreed to within 2.3 plus or minus 2.09 C, with station temperatures consistently lower than the MODIS LSTs. According to the MODIS LST, the maximum surface melt extended to approximately 2300 m in southern Greenland; while the SSM/I measurements showed that the maximum melt extended to nearly 2700 m in southeastern Greenland. The MODIS and SSM/I data are complementary in providing detailed information about the progression of surface and near-surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet.

Analysis of Summer 2002 Melt Extent on the Greenland Ice Sheet using MODIS and SSM/I Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Williams, Richard S.; Steffen, Konrad; Chien, Janet Y. L.

2004-01-01

Previous work has shown that the summer of 2002 had the greatest area of snow melt extent on the Greenland ice sheet ever recorded using passive-microwave data. In this paper, we compare the 0 deg. isotherm derived from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, with Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-derived melt, at the time of the maximum melt extent in 2002. To validate the MODIS derived land-surface temperatures (LSTs), we compared the MODIS LSTs with air temperatures from nine stations (using 11 different data points) and found that they agreed to within 2.3 +/- 2.09 C, with station temperatures consistently lower than the MODIS LSTs. According to the MODIS LST, the maximum surface melt extended to approx. 2300 m in southern Greenland; while the SSM/I measurements showed that the maximum melt extended to nearly 2700 m in southeastern Greenland. The MODIS and SSM/I data are complementary in providing detailed information about the progression of surface and near- surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet.

Analysis of summer 2002 melt extent on the Greenland ice sheet using MODIS and SSM/I data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, D.K.; Williams, R.S.; Steffen, K.; Chien, Janet Y.L.

2004-01-01

Previous work has shown that the summer of 2002 had the greatest area of snow melt extent on the Greenland ice sheet ever recorded using passive-microwave data. In this paper, we compare the 0?? isotherm derived from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, with Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-derived melt, at the time of the maximum melt extent in 2002. To validate the MODIS-derived land-surface temperatures (LSTs), we compared the MODIS LSTs with air temperatures from nine stations (using 11 different data points) and found that they agreed to within 2.3??2.09??C, with station temperatures consistently lower than the MODIS LSTs. According to the MODIS LST, the maximum surface melt extended to ???2300 m in southern Greenland; while the SSM/I measurements showed that the maximum melt extended to nearly 2700 m in southeastern Greenland. The MODIS and SSM/I data are complementary in providing detailed information about the progression of surface and near-surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet.

Analysis of summer 2002 melt extent on the Greenland ice sheet using MODIS and SSM/I data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, D. K.; Williams, R.S.; Steffen, K.; Chien, Janet Y.L.

2004-01-01

Previous work has shown that the summer of 2002 had the greatest area of snow melt extent on the Greenland ice sheet ever recorded using passive-microwave data. In this paper, we compare the 0deg isotherm derived from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, with Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-derived melt, at the time of the maximum melt extent in 2002. To validate the MODIS-derived land-surface temperatures (LSTs), we compared the MODIS LSTs with air temperatures from nine stations (using 11 different data points) and found that they agreed to within 2.3 plusmn 2.09 degC, with station temperatures consistently lower than the MODIS LSTs. According to the MODIS LST, the maximum surface melt extended to ~2300 m in southern Greenland; while the SSM/I measurements showed that the maximum melt extended to nearly 2700 m in southeastern Greenland. The MODIS and SSM/I data are complementary in providing detailed information about the progression of surface and near-surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet.

Plant macrofossil evidence for an early onset of the Holocene summer thermal maximum in northernmost Europe

PubMed Central

Väliranta, M.; Salonen, J. S.; Heikkilä, M.; Amon, L.; Helmens, K.; Klimaschewski, A.; Kuhry, P.; Kultti, S.; Poska, A.; Shala, S.; Veski, S.; Birks, H. H.

2015-01-01

Holocene summer temperature reconstructions from northern Europe based on sedimentary pollen records suggest an onset of peak summer warmth around 9,000 years ago. However, pollen-based temperature reconstructions are largely driven by changes in the proportions of tree taxa, and thus the early-Holocene warming signal may be delayed due to the geographical disequilibrium between climate and tree populations. Here we show that quantitative summer-temperature estimates in northern Europe based on macrofossils of aquatic plants are in many cases ca. 2 °C warmer in the early Holocene (11,700–7,500 years ago) than reconstructions based on pollen data. When the lag in potential tree establishment becomes imperceptible in the mid-Holocene (7,500 years ago), the reconstructed temperatures converge at all study sites. We demonstrate that aquatic plant macrofossil records can provide additional and informative insights into early-Holocene temperature evolution in northernmost Europe and suggest further validation of early post-glacial climate development based on multi-proxy data syntheses. PMID:25858780

Factors affecting the occurrence of saugers in small, high-elevation rivers near the western edge of the species' natural distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amadio, C.J.; Hubert, W.A.; Johnson, Kevin; Oberlie, D.; Dufek, D.

2005-01-01

Factors affecting the occurrence of saugers Sander canadensis were studied throughout the Wind River basin, a high-elevation watershed (> 1,440 m above mean sea level) on the western periphery of the species' natural distribution in central Wyoming. Adult saugers appeared to have a contiguous distribution over 170 km of streams among four rivers in the watershed. The upstream boundaries of sauger distribution were influenced by summer water temperatures and channel slopes in two rivers and by water diversion dams that created barriers to upstream movement in the other two rivers. Models that included summer water temperature, maximum water depth, habitat type (pool or run), dominant substrate, and alkalinity accounted for the variation in sauger occurrence across the watershed within the areas of sauger distribution. Water temperature was the most important basin-scale habitat feature associated with sauger occurrence, and maximum depth was the most important site-specific habitat feature. Saugers were found in a larger proportion of pools than runs in all segments of the watershed and occurred almost exclusively in pools in upstream segments of the watershed. Suitable summer water temperatures and deep, low-velocity habitat were available to support saugers over a large portion of the Wind River watershed. Future management of saugers in the Wind River watershed, as well as in other small river systems within the species' native range, should involve (1) preserving natural fluvial processes to maintain the summer water temperatures and physical habitat features needed by saugers and (2) assuring that barriers to movement do not reduce upstream boundaries of populations.

Nature-based solutions to promote human resilience and wellbeing in cities during increasingly hot summers.

PubMed

Panno, Angelo; Carrus, Giuseppe; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Mariani, Luigi; Sanesi, Giovanni

2017-11-01

Air temperatures are increasing because of global climate change. A warming phenomenon strongly related to global climate change is the urban heat island. It has been shown that the hotter temperatures occurring in cities during the summer negatively affect human wellbeing, but little is known about the potential mechanisms underlying the relationships between hotter temperatures, cognitive psychological resources and wellbeing. The aim of the present research is to understand whether, and how, spending time in urban green spaces, which can be considered as a specific kind of Nature-Based Solution (NBS), helps the recovery of cognitive resources and wellbeing. The main hypothesis is that contact with urban green is related to wellbeing through the depletion of cognitive resources (i.e., ego depletion). Moreover, we expected that individuals showing higher scores of ego depletion also report a higher estimate of the maximum temperature reached during the summer. The results of a survey (N = 115) conducted among visitors to Parco Nord Milano, a large urban park located in Milan (Italy), point out that people visiting the park during the summer show a higher level of wellbeing as well as a lower level of ego depletion. A mediation analysis shows that visiting urban green spaces is associated with greater wellbeing through less ego depletion. Our results also point out that, as expected, people showing a higher level of ego depletion tend to overestimate the maximum air temperature. Implications for future studies and applied interventions regarding the role of NBS to promote human wellbeing are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Seasonal modeling of hand, foot, and mouth disease as a function of meteorological variations in Chongqing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pin; Zhao, Han; You, Fangxin; Zhou, Hailong; Goggins, William B.

2017-08-01

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-induced infectious disease, mainly affecting children under 5 years old. Outbreaks of HFMD in recent years indicate the disease interacts with both the weather and season. This study aimed to investigate the seasonal association between HFMD and weather variation in Chongqing, China. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models based on a maximum lag of 14 days, with negative binomial distribution assumed to account for overdispersion, were constructed to model the association between reporting HFMD cases from 2009 to 2014 and daily mean temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall and sun duration, adjusting for trend, season, and day of the week. The year-round temperature and relative humidity, rainfall in summer, and sun duration in winter were all significantly associated with HFMD. An inverted-U relationship was found between mean temperature and HFMD above 19 °C in summer, with a maximum morbidity at 27 °C, while the risk increased linearly with the temperature in winter. A hockey-stick association was found for relative humidity in summer with increasing risks over 60%. Heavy rainfall, relative to no rain, was found to be associated with reduced HFMD risk in summer and 2 h of sunshine could decrease the risk by 21% in winter. The present study showed meteorological variables were differentially associated with HFMD incidence in two seasons. Short-term weather variation surveillance and forecasting could be employed as an early indicator for potential HFMD outbreaks.

Influences of wildfire and channel reorganization on spatial and temporal variation in stream temperature and the distribution of fish and amphibians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, J.B.; Rosenberger, A.E.; Luce, C.H.; Rieman, B.E.

2007-01-01

Wildfire can influence a variety of stream ecosystem properties. We studied stream temperatures in relation to wildfire in small streams in the Boise River Basin, located in central Idaho, USA. To examine the spatio-temporal aspects of temperature in relation to wildfire, we employed three approaches: a pre-post fire comparison of temperatures between two sites (one from a burned stream and one unburned) over 13 years, a short-term (3 year) pre-post fire comparison of a burned and unburned stream with spatially extensive data, and a short-term (1 year) comparative study of spatial variability in temperatures using a "space for time" substitutive design across 90 sites in nine streams (retrospective comparative study). The latter design included streams with a history of stand-replacing wildfire and streams with severe post-fire reorganization of channels due to debris flows and flooding. Results from these three studies indicated that summer maximum water temperatures can remain significantly elevated for at least a decade following wildfire, particularly in streams with severe channel reorganization. In the retrospective comparative study we investigated occurrence of native rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and tailed frog larvae (Ascaphus montanus) in relation to maximum stream temperatures during summer. Both occurred in nearly every site sampled, but tailed frog larvae were found in much warmer water than previously reported in the field (26.6??C maximum summer temperature). Our results show that physical stream habitats can remain altered (for example, increased temperature) for many years following wildfire, but that native aquatic vertebrates can be resilient. In a management context, this suggests wildfire may be less of a threat to native species than human influences that alter the capacity of stream-living vertebrates to persist in the face of natural disturbance. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snyder, M.A.; Kueppers, L.M.; Sloan, L.C.

In the western United States, more than 30,500 square miles has been converted to irrigated agriculture and urban areas. This study compares the climate responses of four regional climate models (RCMs) to these past land-use changes. The RCMs used two contrasting land cover distributions: potential natural vegetation, and modern land cover that includes agriculture and urban areas. Three of the RCMs represented irrigation by supplementing soil moisture, producing large decreases in August mean (-2.5 F to -5.6 F) and maximum (-5.2 F to -10.1 F) 2-meter temperatures where natural vegetation was converted to irrigated agriculture. Conversion to irrigated agriculture alsomore » resulted in large increases in relative humidity (9 percent 36 percent absolute change). Only one of the RCMs produced increases in summer minimum temperature. Converting natural vegetation to urban land cover produced modest but discernable climate effects in all models, with the magnitude of the effects dependent upon the preexisting vegetation type. Overall, the RCM results indicate that land use change impacts are most pronounced during the summer months, when surface heating is strongest and differences in surface moisture between irrigated land and natural vegetation are largest. The irrigation effect on summer maximum temperatures is comparable in magnitude (but opposite in sign) to predicted future temperature change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.« less

Seasonal variation in thermal tolerance, oxygen consumption, antioxidative enzymes and non-specific immune indices of Indian hill trout, Barilius bendelisis (Hamilton, 1807) from central Himalaya, India.

PubMed

Sharma, Neeraj Kumar; Akhtar, M S; Pandey, Nityanand; Singh, Ravindra; Singh, Atul Kumar

2015-08-01

We studied the season dependent thermal tolerance, oxygen consumption, respiratory burst response and antioxidative enzyme activities in juveniles of Barilius bendelisis. The critical thermal maximum (CTmax), lethal thermal maximum (LTmax), critical thermal minimum (CTmin) and lethal thermal minimum (LTmin) were significantly different at five different seasons viz. winter (10.64°C), spring (16.25°C), summer (22.11°C), rainy (20.87°C) and autumn (17.77°C). The highest CTmax was registered in summer (36.02°C), and lowest CTmin was recorded during winter (2.77°C). Water temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH were strongly related to CTmax, LTmax, CTmin and LTmin suggesting seasonal acclimatization of B. bendelisis. The thermal tolerance polygon area of the B. bendelisis juveniles within the range of seasonal temperature (10.64-22.11°C) was calculated as 470.92°C(2). Oxygen consumption rate was significantly different (p<0.05) between seasons with maximum value during summer (57.66mgO2/kg/h) and lowest in winter (32.60mgO2/kg/h). Total white blood cell count including neutrophil and monocytes also showed significant difference (p<0.05) between seasons with maximum value during summer and minimum number in winter and were found correlated to temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH and respiratory burst activity. Respiratory burst activity of blood phagocytes significantly differed (p<0.05) among seasons with higher value during summer (0.163 OD540nm) and minimum in winter season (0.054 OD540nm). The activity of superoxide dismutase, catalase and glutathione-s-transferase both in liver and gill, also varied significantly (p<0.05) during different seasons. Overall results of this study suggest that multiple environmental factors play a role in seasonal acclimation in B. bendelisis, which modulate the thermal tolerance, oxygen consumption, respiratory burst activity and status of anti-oxidative potential in wild environment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A chironomid-based reconstruction of summer temperatures in NW Iceland since AD 1650

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langdon, P. G.; Caseldine, C. J.; Croudace, I. W.; Jarvis, S.; Wastegård, S.; Crowford, T. C.

2011-05-01

Few studies currently exist that aim to validate a proxy chironomid-temperature reconstruction with instrumental temperature measurements. We used a reconstruction from a chironomid percentage abundance data set to produce quantitative summer temperature estimates since AD 1650 for NW Iceland through a transfer function approach, and validated the record against instrumental temperature measurements from Stykkishólmur in western Iceland. The core was dated through Pb-210, Cs-137 and tephra analyses (Hekla 1693) which produced a well-constrained dating model across the whole study period. Little catchment disturbance, as shown through geochemical (Itrax) and loss-on-ignition data, throughout the period further reinforce the premise that the chironomids were responding to temperature and not other catchment or within-lake variables. Particularly cold phases were identified between AD 1683-1710, AD 1765-1780 and AD 1890-1917, with relative drops in summer temperatures in the order of 1.5-2°C. The timing of these cold phases agree well with other evidence of cooler temperatures, notably increased extent of Little Ice Age (LIA) glaciers. Our evidence suggests that the magnitude of summer temperature cooling (1.5-2°C) was enough to force LIA Icelandic glaciers into their maximum Holocene extent, which is in accordance with previous modelling experiments for an Icelandic ice cap (Langjökull).

The characteristics on spatiotemporal variations of summer heatwaves in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qixiang, C.; Wang, L.; Wu, S., II; Li, Y.

2016-12-01

Summer heatwaves in China have impacts on forestry, agriculture resource, infrastructure, and heat -related illness and mortality. Based on daily air temperature and relative humidity from the Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, the spatial distribution and trends of the intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwaves in China during 1960-2015 were analyzed. Considering climatic variability, we defined a heatwave as a spell of consecutive days with maximum temperatures exceeding the relative threshold (temperature percentile) .We also consider a indices combined hot days and tropical nights (CHT), and the humidity-corrected apparent temperature (AT) to analyze the health impacts of hot days in summer. This study shows that while the average frequency and duration of heatwaves has an increasing trend since 1990s, the North China Plain has a decreasing trend. This study also shows that the largest CHT values occur in southeast China, and the largest AT values occur in South China.

Five centuries of Central European temperature extremes reconstructed from tree-ring density and documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battipaglia, G.; Frank, D.; Buentgen, U.; Dobrovolný, P.; Brázdil, R.; Pfister, C.; Esper, J.

2009-09-01

In this project three different summer temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies across the European Alpine region were compiled and analyzed to make a calendar of extreme warm and cold summers. We identified 100 extreme events during the past millennium from the tree ring data, and 44 extreme years during the 1550-2003 period based upon tree-ring, documentary and instrumental evidence. Comparisons with long instrumental series and documentary evidence verify the tree-ring extremes and indicate the possibility to use this dataset towards a better understanding of the characteristics prior to the instrumental period. Potential links between the occurrence of extreme events over Alps and anomalous large-scale patterns were explored and indicate that the average pattern of the 20 warmest summers (over the 1700-2002 period) describes maximum positive anomalies over Central Europe, whereas the average pattern of the 20 coldest summers shows maximum negative anomalies over Western Europe. Challenges with the present approach included determining an appropriate classification scheme for extreme events and the development of a methodology able to identify and characterize the occurrence of extreme episodes back in time. As a future step, our approach will be extended to help verify the sparse documentary data from the beginning of the past millennium and will be used in conjunction with climate models to assess model capabilities in reproducing characteristics of temperature extremes.

Little Ice Age Summer Temperatures on Pindos Mountains, Greece, From a 750 Year Long Pinus Nigra Tree-Ring Chronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutavas, A.; Dimitrakopoulos, A. P.

2015-12-01

We present a 750-year long tree-ring chronology from black pines (Pinus nigra) in Valia Kalda National Park, Pindos Mountains, Greece. The chronology shows a strong climate signal which consists of significant negative correlation (R=-0.5) with summer temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug-Sep), and positive correlation with summer precipitation. We exploit these relationships to reconstruct summer climate from ~1250 CE to present. In particular we investigate the character of the Little Ice Age (LIA) on mountainous Greece. We find evidence for cooler/wetter summers during the 18th and 19th centuries, but warmer/drier summers during the 14th through 17th centuries, during some of the coldest periods of the LIA in Northern Europe including the Maunder Minimum. This counter-intuitive pattern suggests the LIA had distinct signatures in the Easter Mediterranean, diverging from those of Northern Europe. The temperature pattern reconstructed here is remarkably similar to a recent reconstruction of summer temperatures from maximum latewood density (MXD) of Pinus heldreichii on Mount Olympus, just 150 km east of our site. However, because of the ambivalence of the climate signal with respect to temperature vs. precipitation in both of these reconstructions, there remains uncertainty as to whether the LIA was primarily warm, or dry, or some combination. We advocate for further reconstructions of LIA climate in the Balkan Peninsula and Eastern Mediterranean to explore relationships with Northern Europe and elucidate the broader climatic pattern and dynamical connections.

Extreme Marine Warming Across Tropical Australia During Austral Summer 2015-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benthuysen, Jessica A.; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Feng, Ming; Marshall, Andrew G.

2018-02-01

During austral summer 2015-2016, prolonged extreme ocean warming events, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), occurred in the waters around tropical Australia. MHWs arose first in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean in November 2015, emerging progressively east until March 2016, when all waters from the North West Shelf to the Coral Sea were affected. The MHW maximum intensity tended to occur in March, coinciding with the timing of the maximum sea surface temperature (SST). Large areas were in a MHW state for 3-4 months continuously with maximum intensities over 2°C. In 2016, the Indonesian-Australian Basin and areas including the Timor Sea and Kimberley shelf experienced the longest and most intense MHW from remotely sensed SST dating back to 1982. In situ temperature data from temperature loggers at coastal sites revealed a consistent picture, with MHWs appearing from west to east and peaking in March 2016. Temperature data from moorings, an Argo float, and Slocum gliders showed the extent of warming with depth. The events occurred during a strong El Niño and weakened monsoon activity, enhanced by the extended suppressed phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Reduced cloud cover in January and February 2016 led to positive air-sea heat flux anomalies into the ocean, predominantly due to the shortwave radiation contribution with a smaller additional contribution from the latent heat flux anomalies. A data-assimilating ocean model showed regional changes in the upper ocean circulation and a change in summer surface mixed layer depths and barrier layer thicknesses consistent with past El Niño events.

Tracing the Inter-Hemispheric Coupling During Polar Summer Periods of 2002-2010 Using TIMED/SABER Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Richard; Feoflow, Artem; Pesnell, Dean; Kutepov, Alexander

2010-01-01

It has been found that for more than one polar summer season between 2002-2010, the northern polar mesospheric region near and above the mesospheric maximum was warmer than normal. The strongest warming effect of this type was observed to occur during northern summer 2002. Theoretical studies have implied that these "anomalies" were preceded by unusual dynamical processes occurring in the southern hemisphere. We have analyzed temperature distributions measured by the SABER limb scanning infrared radiometer aboard the NASA TIMED satellite between 2002-2010 at altitudes from 15 to 110 km and for latitudes between 83 deg. S to 83 deg. N. We describe the approach to trace the inter-hemispheric temperature correlatoins and to identify the global features that were unique for the "anomalous" northern polar summers.

Analysis of trends in climate, streamflow, and stream temperature in north coastal California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madej, Mary Ann; Medley, C. Nicholas; Patterson, Glenn; Parker, Melanie J.

2011-01-01

As part of a broader project analyzing trends in climate, streamflow, vegetation, salmon, and ocean conditions in northern California national park units, we compiled average monthly air temperature and precipitation data from 73 climate stations, streamflow data from 21 river gaging stations, and limited stream temperature data from salmon-bearing rivers in north coastal California. Many climate stations show a statistically significant increase in both average maximum and average minimum air temperature in early fall and midwinter during the last century. Concurrently, average September precipitation has decreased. In many coastal rivers, summer low flow has decreased and summer stream temperatures have increased, which affects summer rearing habitat for salmonids. Nevertheless, because vegetative cover has also changed during this time period, we cannot ascribe streamflow changes to climate change without first assessing water budgets. Although shifts in the timing of the centroid of runoff have been documented in snowmelt-dominated watersheds in the western United States, this was not the case in lower elevation coastal rivers analyzed in this study.

Deglacial Warming and Wetting of Northern Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, W.; Russell, J. M.; Longo, W. M.; Giblin, A. E.; Holland-Stergar, P.; Morrill, C.; Huang, Y.

2015-12-01

Aeolian sand dunes swept across northern Alaska during the last glacial maximum. Today, summer temperatures are moderate and soils can remain waterlogged all summer long. How did the transition from a cold and dry glacial to a warm and wet interglacial take place? To answer this question we reconstructed temperature and precipitation changes during the last deglaciation using biomarker hydrogen isotopes from a new 28,000 year-long sediment core from Lake E5, located in the central Brooks Range of Alaska. We use terrestrial leaf waxes (dDterr, C28-acid), informed by dD measurements of modern vegetation, to infer dD of precipitation, an indicator of relative temperature change. Biomarkers from aquatic organisms (dDaq, C18-acid) are used as a proxy for lake water isotopes. The offset between the two (eterr-aq) is used to infer relative changes in evaporative enrichment of lake water, and by extension, moisture balance. dDterr during the last glacial period was -282‰ compared to -258‰ during the Holocene, suggesting a 5.6 ± 2.7 °C increase in summer temperature using the modern local temperature-dD relationship. Gradual warming began at ~18.5 ka, and temperature increased abruptly at 11.5 ka, at the end of the Younger Dryas. Warming peaked in the early Holocene from 11.5 to 9.1 ka, indicating a Holocene thermal maximum associated with peak summer insolation. The eterr-aq supports a dry LGM and moist Holocene. Other sediment proxies (TIC, TOC, redox-sensitive elements) support the eterr-aq, and reveal a shift to more positive P-E beginning around 17 ka, suggesting rising temperature led increases in precipitation during the last deglaciation. Moreover, differing patterns of dDterr and eterr-aq during the deglaciation suggest that the relationship between temperature and precipitation changed through time. Such decoupling, likely due to regional atmospheric reorganization as the Laurentide ice sheet waned, illustrates the importance of atmospheric dynamics in controlling Alaskan climate.

Towards bridging the gap between climate change projections and maize producers in South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landman, Willem A.; Engelbrecht, Francois; Hewitson, Bruce; Malherbe, Johan; van der Merwe, Jacobus

2018-05-01

Multi-decadal regional projections of future climate change are introduced into a linear statistical model in order to produce an ensemble of austral mid-summer maximum temperature simulations for southern Africa. The statistical model uses atmospheric thickness fields from a high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) reanalysis-forced simulation as predictors in order to develop a linear recalibration model which represents the relationship between atmospheric thickness fields and gridded maximum temperatures across the region. The regional climate model, the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM), projects maximum temperatures increases over southern Africa to be in the order of 4 °C under low mitigation towards the end of the century or even higher. The statistical recalibration model is able to replicate these increasing temperatures, and the atmospheric thickness-maximum temperature relationship is shown to be stable under future climate conditions. Since dry land crop yields are not explicitly simulated by climate models but are sensitive to maximum temperature extremes, the effect of projected maximum temperature change on dry land crops of the Witbank maize production district of South Africa, assuming other factors remain unchanged, is then assessed by employing a statistical approach similar to the one used for maximum temperature projections.

Seasonal and geographical variation in heat tolerance and evaporative cooling capacity in a passerine bird.

PubMed

Noakes, Matthew J; Wolf, Blair O; McKechnie, Andrew E

2016-03-01

Intraspecific variation in avian thermoregulatory responses to heat stress has received little attention, despite increasing evidence that endothermic animals show considerable physiological variation among populations. We investigated seasonal (summer versus winter) variation in heat tolerance and evaporative cooling in an Afrotropical ploceid passerine, the white-browed sparrow-weaver (Plocepasser mahali; ∼ 47 g) at three sites along a climatic gradient with more than 10 °C variation in mid-summer maximum air temperature (Ta). We measured resting metabolic rate (RMR) and total evaporative water loss (TEWL) using open flow-through respirometry, and core body temperature (Tb) using passive integrated transponder tags. Sparrow-weavers were exposed to a ramped profile of progressively higher Ta between 30 and 52 °C to elicit maximum evaporative cooling capacity (N=10 per site per season); the maximum Ta birds tolerated before the onset of severe hyperthermia (Tb ≈ 44 °C) was considered to be their hyperthermia threshold Ta (Ta,HT). Our data reveal significant seasonal acclimatisation of heat tolerance, with a desert population of sparrow-weavers reaching significantly higher Ta in summer (49.5 ± 1.4 °C, i.e. higher Ta,HT) than in winter (46.8 ± 0.9 °C), reflecting enhanced evaporative cooling during summer. Moreover, desert sparrow-weavers had significantly higher heat tolerance and evaporative cooling capacity during summer compared with populations from more mesic sites (Ta,HT=47.3 ± 1.5 and 47.6 ± 1.3 °C). A better understanding of the contributions of local adaptation versus phenotypic plasticity to intraspecific variation in avian heat tolerance and evaporative cooling capacity is needed for modelling species' responses to changing climates. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Meteorological variables affect fertility rate after intrauterine artificial insemination in sheep in a seasonal-dependent manner: a 7-year study.

PubMed

Palacios, C; Abecia, J A

2015-05-01

A total number of 48,088 artificial inseminations (AIs) have been controlled during seven consecutive years in 79 dairy sheep Spanish farms (41° N). Mean, maximum and minimum ambient temperatures (Ts), temperature amplitude (TA), mean relative humidity (RH), mean solar radiation (SR) and total rainfall of each insemination day and 15 days later were recorded. Temperature-humidity index (THI) and effective temperature (ET) have been calculated. A binary logistic regression model to estimate the risk of not getting pregnant compared to getting pregnant, through the odds ratio (OR), was performed. Successful winter inseminations were carried out under higher SR (P < 0.01) and summer inseminations under lower SR values (P < 0.05). Successful inseminations during the summer were performed under significantly lower maximum T (P < 0.01), while winter inseminations resulted in pregnancy when they were carried out under higher maximum (P < 0.05) and minimum Ts (P < 0.01). Up to five meteorological variables presented OR >1 (maximum T, ET and rainfall on AI day, and ET and rainfall on day 15), and two variables presented OR <1 (SR on AI day and maximum T on day 15). However, the effect of meteorological factors affected fertility in opposite ways, so T becomes a protective or risk factor on fertility depending on season. In conclusion, the percentage of pregnancy after AI in sheep is significantly affected by meteorological variables in a seasonal-dependent manner, so the parameters such as temperature reverse their effects in the hot or cold seasons. A forecast of the meteorological conditions could be a useful tool when AI dates are being scheduled.

Meteorological variables affect fertility rate after intrauterine artificial insemination in sheep in a seasonal-dependent manner: a 7-year study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palacios, C.; Abecia, J. A.

2015-05-01

A total number of 48,088 artificial inseminations (AIs) have been controlled during seven consecutive years in 79 dairy sheep Spanish farms (41° N). Mean, maximum and minimum ambient temperatures ( Ts), temperature amplitude (TA), mean relative humidity (RH), mean solar radiation (SR) and total rainfall of each insemination day and 15 days later were recorded. Temperature-humidity index (THI) and effective temperature (ET) have been calculated. A binary logistic regression model to estimate the risk of not getting pregnant compared to getting pregnant, through the odds ratio (OR), was performed. Successful winter inseminations were carried out under higher SR ( P < 0.01) and summer inseminations under lower SR values ( P < 0.05). Successful inseminations during the summer were performed under significantly lower maximum T ( P < 0.01), while winter inseminations resulted in pregnancy when they were carried out under higher maximum ( P < 0.05) and minimum Ts ( P < 0.01). Up to five meteorological variables presented OR >1 (maximum T, ET and rainfall on AI day, and ET and rainfall on day 15), and two variables presented OR <1 (SR on AI day and maximum T on day 15). However, the effect of meteorological factors affected fertility in opposite ways, so T becomes a protective or risk factor on fertility depending on season. In conclusion, the percentage of pregnancy after AI in sheep is significantly affected by meteorological variables in a seasonal-dependent manner, so the parameters such as temperature reverse their effects in the hot or cold seasons. A forecast of the meteorological conditions could be a useful tool when AI dates are being scheduled.

Are winter-active species vulnerable to climate warming? A case study with the wintergreen terrestrial orchid, Tipularia discolor.

PubMed

Marchin, Renée M; Dunn, Robert R; Hoffmann, William A

2014-12-01

In the eastern United States, winter temperature has been increasing nearly twice as fast as summer temperature, but studies of warming effects on plants have focused on species that are photosynthetically active in summer. The terrestrial orchid Tipularia discolor is leafless in summer and acquires C primarily in winter. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis in T. discolor is higher than the maximum temperature throughout most of its growing season, and therefore growth can be expected to increase with warming. Contrary to this hypothesis, experimental warming negatively affected reproductive fitness (number of flowering stalks, flowers, fruits) and growth (change in leaf area from 2010 to 2012) in T. discolor. Temperature in June-July was critical for flowering, and mean July temperature greater than 29 °C (i.e., 2.5 °C above ambient) eliminated reproduction. Warming of 1.2 °C delayed flowering by an average of 10 days and fruiting by an average of 5 days. Warming of 4.4 °C reduced relative growth rates by about 60%, which may have been partially caused by the direct effects of temperature on photosynthesis and respiration. Warming indirectly increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by 0.2-0.5 kPa, and leaf-to-air VPD over 1.3 kPa restricted stomatal conductance of T. discolor to 10-40% of maximum conductance. These results highlight the need to account for changes in VPD when estimating temperature responses of plant species under future warming scenarios. Increasing temperature in the future will likely be an important limiting factor to the distribution of T. discolor, especially along the southern edge of its range.

Photosynthetic response of Persian Gulf acroporid corals to summer versus winter temperature deviations

PubMed Central

Saleh, Abolfazl; Mehdinia, Ali; Shirvani, Arash; Kayal, Mohsen

2015-01-01

With on-going climate change, coral susceptibility to thermal stress constitutes a central concern in reefconservation. In the Persian Gulf, coral reefs are confronted with a high seasonal variability in water temperature, and both hot and cold extremes have been associated with episodes of coral bleaching and mortality. Using physiological performance as a measure of coral health, we investigated the thermal susceptibility of the common acroporid, Acropora downingi, near Hengam Island where the temperature oscillates seasonally in the range 20.2–34.2 °C. In a series of two short-term experiments comparing coral response in summer versus winter conditions, we exposed corals during each season (1) to the corresponding seasonal average and extreme temperature levels in a static thermal environment, and (2) to a progressive temperature deviation from the annual mean toward the corresponding extreme seasonal value and beyond in a dynamic thermal environment. We monitored four indictors of coral physiological performance: net photosynthesis (Pn), dark respiration (R), autotrophic capability (Pn/R), and survival. Corals exposed to warming during summer showed a decrease in net photosynthesis and ultimately died, while corals exposed to cooling during winter were not affected in their photosynthetic performance and survival. Coral autotrophic capability Pn/R was lower at the warmer thermal level within eachseason, and during summer compared to winter. Corals exposed to the maximum temperature of summer displayed Pn/R < 1, inferring that photosynthetic performance could not support basal metabolic needs under this environment. Our results suggest that the autotrophic performance of the Persian Gulf A. downingi is sensitive to the extreme temperatures endured in summer, and therefore its populations may be impacted by future increases in water temperature. PMID:26157627

Photosynthetic response of Persian Gulf acroporid corals to summer versus winter temperature deviations.

PubMed

Vajed Samiei, Jahangir; Saleh, Abolfazl; Mehdinia, Ali; Shirvani, Arash; Kayal, Mohsen

2015-01-01

With on-going climate change, coral susceptibility to thermal stress constitutes a central concern in reefconservation. In the Persian Gulf, coral reefs are confronted with a high seasonal variability in water temperature, and both hot and cold extremes have been associated with episodes of coral bleaching and mortality. Using physiological performance as a measure of coral health, we investigated the thermal susceptibility of the common acroporid, Acropora downingi, near Hengam Island where the temperature oscillates seasonally in the range 20.2-34.2 °C. In a series of two short-term experiments comparing coral response in summer versus winter conditions, we exposed corals during each season (1) to the corresponding seasonal average and extreme temperature levels in a static thermal environment, and (2) to a progressive temperature deviation from the annual mean toward the corresponding extreme seasonal value and beyond in a dynamic thermal environment. We monitored four indictors of coral physiological performance: net photosynthesis (Pn), dark respiration (R), autotrophic capability (Pn/R), and survival. Corals exposed to warming during summer showed a decrease in net photosynthesis and ultimately died, while corals exposed to cooling during winter were not affected in their photosynthetic performance and survival. Coral autotrophic capability Pn/R was lower at the warmer thermal level within eachseason, and during summer compared to winter. Corals exposed to the maximum temperature of summer displayed Pn/R < 1, inferring that photosynthetic performance could not support basal metabolic needs under this environment. Our results suggest that the autotrophic performance of the Persian Gulf A. downingi is sensitive to the extreme temperatures endured in summer, and therefore its populations may be impacted by future increases in water temperature.

A Subambient Open Roof Surface under the Mid-Summer Sun.

PubMed

Gentle, Angus R; Smith, Geoff B

2015-09-01

A novel material open to warm air stays below ambient temperature under maximum solar intensities of mid-summer. It is found to be 11 °C cooler than a commercial white cool roof nearby. A combination of specially chosen polymers and a silver thin film yields values near 100% for both solar reflectance, and thermal emittance at infrared wavelengths from 7.9 to 13 μm.

Vegetative Succession in Recently Deglaciated Land in Kenai Fjords National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, C.; Klein, A. G.; Cairns, D. M.

2017-12-01

Poleward vegetation expansion has affected Alaska for decades and due to recently increased rates of warming, the expansion will accelerate. Glacial recession in Kenai Fjords National Park has exposed previously ice-covered land with vegetation succession occurring just a few years following glacial retreat. Land cover changes in recently deglaciated areas are affected by surface-air interactions, temperature gradients, and ecosystem development. Using satellite images from Landsat 5, 7, and 8 and the previous extents of four retreating glaciers from 1985 to 2015 within Kenai Fjords National Park, this study examines the relationship between deglaciation rates and vegetation greening. The glaciers, Exit (-15.04 m/yr), Petrof (-31.12 m/yr), Lowell (-33.14 m/yr), and Yalik (-51.32 m/yr) were selected based on their location, whether they were land or lake terminating, and their average retreat rate measured between 1985 and 2015. These glaciers have also been extensively studied. Combining historic glacier extents with 371 summer (JJA) Landsat images gathered from Google's Earth Engine platform we identified annual summer changes in NDVI of locations that were deglaciated between 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015. Summer temperature maximums were determined to be more correlated with deglaciation, as measured using NDSI, than mean summer temperatures. Using NDVI, heightened deglaciation rates were found to be reasonably correlated with vegetation succession. The faster retreating glaciers, Lowell and Yalik, exhibited higher mean and maximum rates of increase of NDVI in their terminus areas than Exit and Petrof, the two slower retreating glaciers.

Climatic context and ecological implications of summer fog decline in the coast redwood region

PubMed Central

Johnstone, James A.; Dawson, Todd E.

2010-01-01

Biogeographical, physiological, and paleoecological evidence suggests that the coast redwood [Sequoia sempervirens (D. Don) Endl.] is closely associated with the presence of summer marine fog along the Pacific coast of California. Here we present a novel record of summer fog frequency in the coast redwood region upon the basis of direct hourly measurements of cloud ceiling heights from 1951 to 2008. Our analysis shows that coastal summer fog frequency is a remarkably integrative measure of United States Pacific coastal climate, with strong statistical connections to the wind-driven upwelling system of the California Current and the broad ocean temperature pattern known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. By using a long-term index of daily maximum land temperatures, we infer a 33% reduction in fog frequency since the early 20th century. We present tree physiological data suggesting that coast redwood and other ecosystems along the United States west coast may be increasingly drought stressed under a summer climate of reduced fog frequency and greater evaporative demand. PMID:20160112

Climatic context and ecological implications of summer fog decline in the coast redwood region.

PubMed

Johnstone, James A; Dawson, Todd E

2010-03-09

Biogeographical, physiological, and paleoecological evidence suggests that the coast redwood [Sequoia sempervirens (D. Don) Endl.] is closely associated with the presence of summer marine fog along the Pacific coast of California. Here we present a novel record of summer fog frequency in the coast redwood region upon the basis of direct hourly measurements of cloud ceiling heights from 1951 to 2008. Our analysis shows that coastal summer fog frequency is a remarkably integrative measure of United States Pacific coastal climate, with strong statistical connections to the wind-driven upwelling system of the California Current and the broad ocean temperature pattern known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. By using a long-term index of daily maximum land temperatures, we infer a 33% reduction in fog frequency since the early 20th century. We present tree physiological data suggesting that coast redwood and other ecosystems along the United States west coast may be increasingly drought stressed under a summer climate of reduced fog frequency and greater evaporative demand.

May–June Maximum Temperature Reconstruction from Mean Earlywood Density in North Central China and Its Linkages to the Summer Monsoon Activities

PubMed Central

Chen, Feng; Yuan, Yujiang

2014-01-01

Cores of Pinus tabulaformis from Tianshui were subjected to densitometric analysis to obtain mean earlywood density data. Climate response analysis indicates that May–June maximum temperature is the main factor limiting the mean earlywood density (EWD) of Chinese pine trees in the Shimen Mountains. Based on the EWD chronology, we have reconstructed May–June maximum temperature 1666 to 2008 for Tianshui, north central China. The reconstruction explains 40.1% of the actual temperature variance during the common period 1953–2008. The temperature reconstruction is representative of temperature conditions over a large area to the southeast and northwest of the sampling site. Preliminary analysis of links between large-scale climatic variation and the temperature reconstruction shows that there is a relationship between extremes in spring temperature and anomalous atmospheric circulation in the region. It is thus revealed that the mean earlywood density chronology of Pinus tabulaformis has enough potential to reconstruct the temperature variability further into the past. PMID:25207554

Analysis of temperature trends in Northern Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosic, Ivana; Gavrilov, Milivoj; Unkašević, Miroslava; Marković, Slobodan; Petrović, Predrag

2017-04-01

An analysis of air temperature trends in Northern Serbia for the annual and seasonal time series is performed for two periods: 1949-2013 and 1979-2013. Three data sets of surface air temperatures: monthly mean temperatures, monthly maximum temperatures, and monthly minimum temperatures are analyzed at 9 stations that have altitudes varying between 75 m and 102 m. Monthly mean temperatures are obtained as the average of the daily mean temperatures, while monthly maximum (minimum) temperatures are the maximum (minimum) values of daily temperatures in corresponding month. Positive trends were found in 29 out of 30 time series, and the negative trend was found only in winter during the period 1979-2013. Applying the Mann-Kendall test, significant positive trends were found in 15 series; 7 in the period 1949-2013 and 8 in the period 1979-2013; and no significant trend was found in 15 series. Significant positive trends are dominated during the year, spring, and summer, where it was found in 14 out of 18 cases. Significant positive trends were found 7, 5, and 3 times in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. It was found that the positive temperature trends are dominant in Northern Serbia.

Contribution of urban expansion and a changing climate to decline of a butterfly fauna.

PubMed

Casner, Kayce L; Forister, Matthew L; O'Brien, Joshua M; Thorne, James; Waetjen, David; Shapiro, Arthur M

2014-06-01

Butterfly populations are naturally patchy and undergo extinctions and recolonizations. Analyses based on more than 2 decades of data on California's Central Valley butterfly fauna show a net loss in species richness through time. We analyzed 22 years of phenological and faunistic data for butterflies to investigate patterns of species richness over time. We then used 18-22 years of data on changes in regional land use and 37 years of seasonal climate data to develop an explanatory model. The model related the effects of changes in land-use patterns, from working landscapes (farm and ranchland) to urban and suburban landscapes, and of a changing climate on butterfly species richness. Additionally, we investigated local trends in land use and climate. A decline in the area of farmland and ranchland, an increase in minimum temperatures during the summer and maximum temperatures in the fall negatively affected net species richness, whereas increased minimum temperatures in the spring and greater precipitation in the previous summer positively affected species richness. According to the model, there was a threshold between 30% and 40% working-landscape area below which further loss of working-landscape area had a proportionally greater effect on butterfly richness. Some of the isolated effects of a warming climate acted in opposition to affect butterfly richness. Three of the 4 climate variables that most affected richness showed systematic trends (spring and summer mean minimum and fall mean maximum temperatures). Higher spring minimum temperatures were associated with greater species richness, whereas higher summer temperatures in the previous year and lower rainfall were linked to lower richness. Patterns of land use contributed to declines in species richness (although the pattern was not linear), but the net effect of a changing climate on butterfly richness was more difficult to discern. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Seasonal variation in carcass characteristics of korean cattle steers.

PubMed

Piao, M Y; Baik, M

2015-03-01

Climate temperature affects animal production. This study was conducted to evaluate whether climatic conditions affect beef carcass characteristics of Korean cattle steers. The monthly carcass characteristics of Korean cattle steers (n = 2,182,415) for 8 yr (2006 through 2013) were collected from the Korean Institute for Animal Products Quality Evaluation. Daily climate temperature (CT) and relative humidity (RH) data were collected from the Korean Meteorological Administration. Weather conditions in South Korea during summer were hot and humid, with a maximum temperature of 28.4°C and a maximum RH of 91.4%. The temperature-humidity index (THI), calculated based on CT and RH, ranges from 73 to 80 during summer. Winter in South Korea was cold, with a minimum temperature of -4.0°C and a wind-chill temperature of -6.2°C. Both marbling score (MS) and quality grade (QG) of Korean cattle steer carcasses were generally best (p<0.05) in autumn and worst in spring. A correlation analysis showed that MS and QG frequencies were not associated (p>0.05) with CT. Yield grade (YG) of Korean cattle steer carcasses was lowest (p<0.05) in winter (November to January) and highest in spring and summer (May to September). A correlation analysis revealed that YG frequency was strongly correlated (r≥0.71; p<0.01) with CT and THI values. The rib eye area, a positive YG parameter, was not associated with CT. Backfat thickness (BT), a negative YG factor, was highest in winter (November and December). The BT was strongly negatively correlated (r≤-0.74; p<0.01) with CTs. Therefore, the poor YG during winter is likely due in part to the high BT. In conclusion, YG in Korean cattle steer carcasses was worst in winter. QGs were not associated with winter or summer climatic conditions.

Seasonal Variation in Carcass Characteristics of Korean Cattle Steers

PubMed Central

Piao, M. Y.; Baik, M.

2015-01-01

Climate temperature affects animal production. This study was conducted to evaluate whether climatic conditions affect beef carcass characteristics of Korean cattle steers. The monthly carcass characteristics of Korean cattle steers (n = 2,182,415) for 8 yr (2006 through 2013) were collected from the Korean Institute for Animal Products Quality Evaluation. Daily climate temperature (CT) and relative humidity (RH) data were collected from the Korean Meteorological Administration. Weather conditions in South Korea during summer were hot and humid, with a maximum temperature of 28.4°C and a maximum RH of 91.4%. The temperature-humidity index (THI), calculated based on CT and RH, ranges from 73 to 80 during summer. Winter in South Korea was cold, with a minimum temperature of −4.0°C and a wind-chill temperature of −6.2°C. Both marbling score (MS) and quality grade (QG) of Korean cattle steer carcasses were generally best (p<0.05) in autumn and worst in spring. A correlation analysis showed that MS and QG frequencies were not associated (p>0.05) with CT. Yield grade (YG) of Korean cattle steer carcasses was lowest (p<0.05) in winter (November to January) and highest in spring and summer (May to September). A correlation analysis revealed that YG frequency was strongly correlated (r≥0.71; p<0.01) with CT and THI values. The rib eye area, a positive YG parameter, was not associated with CT. Backfat thickness (BT), a negative YG factor, was highest in winter (November and December). The BT was strongly negatively correlated (r≤−0.74; p<0.01) with CTs. Therefore, the poor YG during winter is likely due in part to the high BT. In conclusion, YG in Korean cattle steer carcasses was worst in winter. QGs were not associated with winter or summer climatic conditions. PMID:25656196

Thermoregulatory challenges in the habitat of the world's smallest tortoise, Chersobius signatus.

PubMed

Loehr, Victor J T

2018-01-01

Ectotherms have various means of dealing with low environmental temperatures, but relatively few species have been rigorously investigated. Consequently, we have little information to predict how ectotherm populations might respond to global temperature changes. Tortoises from temperate and subtropical regions often overcome periodically cool conditions by hibernation, but speckled dwarf tortoises (Chersobius signatus) need to remain active to exploit ephemeral resources in their arid winter-rainfall habitat. This study investigated how dwarf tortoises cope with low temperatures in winter and spring, by measuring thermal habitat quality and thermoregulation based on differently-sized operative temperature models in sun, shade, and in deep crevices. Investigations continued in summer and autumn to obtain a year-round picture of thermoregulatory challenges. Although large models (i.e., larger than dwarf tortoises) were expected to have lower operative temperatures than smaller models, due to the former's larger thermal inertia, all model sizes had similar temperatures. Hence, the species' small body size does not appear constrained by obtainable body temperatures in cool seasons. Nevertheless, low operative temperatures in winter posed a challenge for the tortoises, which reached their field-preferred body temperature for an average of only 0.8-0.9h per day. Moreover, a low thermoregulation effectiveness suggested that tortoises traded-off physiological benefits of favourable body temperatures against predation risk. Spring and autumn provided higher temperatures, but summer caused the greatest thermoregulatory challenge. Although summer body temperatures were closer to field-preferred body temperature than in any other season, tortoises required rock crevices to avoid overheating. The small size of dwarf tortoises might help them utilise crevices. In summer, maximum operative temperatures in crevices were similar to field-preferred body temperature, indicating that an increase in environmental temperatures might be detrimental to dwarf tortoises. In light of projected temperature rises, future studies should assess if dwarf tortoises can cope with higher environmental temperatures in summer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shearing at the end of summer affects body temperature of free-living Angora goats ( Capra aegagrus) more than does shearing at the end of winter.

PubMed

Hetem, R S; de Witt, B A; Fick, L G; Fuller, A; Kerley, G I H; Maloney, S K; Meyer, L C R; Mitchell, D

2009-07-01

Angora goats are known to be vulnerable to cold stress, especially after shearing, but their thermoregulatory responses to shearing have not been measured. We recorded activity, and abdominal and subcutaneous temperatures, for 10 days pre-shearing and post-shearing, in 10 Angora goats inhabiting the succulent thicket of the Eastern Cape, South Africa, in both March (late summer) and September (late winter). Within each season, environmental conditions were similar pre-shearing and post-shearing, but September was an average 5°C colder than March. Shearing resulted in a decreased mean (P < 0.0001), minimum (P < 0.0001) and maximum daily abdominal temperature (P < 0.0001). Paradoxically, the decrease in daily mean (P = 0.03) and maximum (P = 0.01) abdominal temperatures, from pre-shearing to post-shearing, was greater in March than in September. Daily amplitude of body temperature rhythm (P < 0.0001) and the maximum rate of abdominal temperature rise (P < 0.0001) increased from pre-shearing to post-shearing, resulting in an earlier diurnal peak in abdominal temperature (P = 0.001) post-shearing. These changes in amplitude, rate of abdominal temperature rise and time of diurnal peak in abdominal temperature suggest that the goats' thermoregulatory system was more labile after shearing. Mean daily subcutaneous temperatures also decreased post-shearing (P < 0.0001), despite our index goat selecting more stable microclimates after shearing in March (P = 0.03). Following shearing, there was an increased difference between abdominal and subcutaneous temperatures (P < 0.0001) at night, suggesting that the goats used peripheral vasoconstriction to limit heat loss. In addition to these temperature changes, mean daily activity increased nearly two-fold after March shearing, but not September shearing. This increased activity after March shearing was likely the result of an increased foraging time, food intake and metabolic rate, as suggested by the increased water influx (P = 0.0008). Thus, Angora goats entered a heat conservation mode after shearing in both March and September. That the transition from the fleeced to the shorn state had greater thermoregulatory consequences in March than in September may provide a mechanistic explanation for Angora goats' vulnerability to cold in summer.

Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonelli, Giovanni; Coppola, Anna; Salvatore, Maria Cristina; Baroni, Carlo; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Gentilesca, Tiziana; Ripullone, Francesco; Borghetti, Marco; Conte, Emanuele; Tognetti, Roberto; Marchetti, Marco; Lombardi, Fabio; Brunetti, Michele; Maugeri, Maurizio; Pelfini, Manuela; Cherubini, Paolo; Provenzale, Antonello; Maggi, Valter

2017-11-01

A first assessment of the main climatic drivers that modulate the tree-ring width (RW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) along the Italian Peninsula and northeastern Sicily was performed using 27 forest sites, which include conifers (RW and MXD) and broadleaves (only RW). Tree-ring data were compared using the correlation analysis of the monthly and seasonal variables of temperature, precipitation and standardized precipitation index (SPI, used to characterize meteorological droughts) against each species-specific site chronology and against the highly sensitive to climate (HSTC) chronologies (based on selected indexed individual series). We find that climate signals in conifer MXD are stronger and more stable over time than those in conifer and broadleaf RW. In particular, conifer MXD variability is directly influenced by the late summer (August, September) temperature and is inversely influenced by the summer precipitation and droughts (SPI at a timescale of 3 months). The MXD sensitivity to August-September (AS) temperature and to summer drought is mainly driven by the latitudinal gradient of summer precipitation amounts, with sites in the northern Apennines showing stronger climate signals than sites in the south. Conifer RW is influenced by the temperature and drought of the previous summer, whereas broadleaf RW is more influenced by summer precipitation and drought of the current growing season. The reconstruction of the late summer temperatures for the Italian Peninsula for the past 300 years, based on the HSTC chronology of conifer MXD, shows a stable model performance that underlines periods of climatic cooling (and likely also wetter conditions) in 1699, 1740, 1814, 1914 and 1938, and follows well the variability of the instrumental record and of other tree-ring-based reconstructions in the region. Considering a 20-year low-pass-filtered series, the reconstructed temperature record consistently deviates < 1 °C from the instrumental record. This divergence may also be due to the precipitation patterns and drought stresses that influence the tree-ring MXD at our study sites. The reconstructed late summer temperature variability is also linked to summer drought conditions and it is valid for the west-east oriented region including Sardinia, Sicily, the Italian Peninsula and the western Balkan area along the Adriatic coast.

Impact of recharge water temperature on bioclogging during managed aquifer recharge: a laboratory study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Lu; Gao, Zongjun; Zheng, Xilai; Wei, Jiuchuan

2018-04-01

To investigate the effect of recharge water temperature on bioclogging processes and mechanisms during seasonal managed aquifer recharge (MAR), two groups of laboratory percolation experiments were conducted: a winter test and a summer test. The temperatures were controlled at 5±2 and 15±3 °C, and the tests involved bacterial inoculums acquired from well water during March 2014 and August 2015, for the winter and summer tests, respectively. The results indicated that the sand columns clogged 10 times faster in the summer test due to a 10-fold larger bacterial growth rate. The maximum concentrations of total extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) in the winter test were approximately twice those in the summer test, primarily caused by a 200 μg/g sand increase of both loosely bound EPS (LB-EPS) and tightly bound EPS (TB-EPS). In the first half of the experimental period, the accumulation of bacteria cells and EPS production induced rapid bioclogging in both the winter and summer tests. Afterward, increasing bacterial growth dominated the bioclogging in the summer test, while the accumulation of LB-EPS led to further bioclogging in the winter test. The biological analysis determined that the dominant bacteria in experiments for both seasons were different and the bacterial community diversity was 50% higher in the winter test than that for summer. The seasonal inoculums could lead to differences in the bacterial community structure and diversity, while recharge water temperature was considered to be a major factor influencing the bacterial growth rate and metabolism behavior during the seasonal bioclogging process.

Climatic indicators over Catalonia during the last century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busto, M.; Prohom, M.

2010-09-01

The Meteorological Service of Catalonia releases a yearly bulletin whose main objective is to try to detect climate trends over Catalonia during the last decades. Climate indicators are obtained from the analysis of historical daily air temperature, sea temperature and rainfall series. Those series have been first completed, analyzed for quality control and homogenized to ensure its final reliability. Regarding homogenization, monthly air temperature series have been tested and corrected according to the methodology proposed by Caussinus and Mestre (2004). For the two longest air temperature series, the calculated correction factors have been transferred to the daily values following Vincent et al. (2002) recommendations, while no significant inhomogeneities have been detected for precipitation series. The analysis of temperature trends, for the period 1950-2010, of 17 selected climatic series spread across the territory shows a common temperature increase between +0.19 to +0.24 °C/decade. This warming trend is uniform and no specific sub-regional trends are detected. Furthermore, the seasonal approach reveals that mean maximum temperature increases at a higher rate than mean minimum temperature. The summer temperature rise is the most significant, between +0.32 and +0.44 °C/decade, while autumn is the only season showing no significant positive trend. The summer maximum temperature shows the highest increase, exceeding +0.39 °C/decade in all the 17 series. The climatic extremes analysis of the longest Catalan series (Ebre Observatory in Roquetes, Tarragona, since 1905 and Fabra Observatory in Barcelona since 1913) reveals an increase in the number of summer days, tropical nights, minimum of maximum temperature, warm days and warm nights, and a decrease in the number of frost days, cold nights, cold days and cold spell duration indicator. Concerning precipitation, the only significant trend is the reduction of snow days. These trends were calculated according to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The sea temperature trend in l'Estartit (NE coast of Catalonia, Costa Brava) since 1974 shows a steady increment in all the measured levels (surface, -20 m, -50 m and -80 m) of +0,33 °C/decade on average. Temperature increment is maximum at -20 m, with +0.36 °C/decade variation. Moreover, there is an increase in the sea level of +3.35 cm/decade. CAUSSINUS, H. and MESTRE, O. (2004): Detection and correction of artificial shifts in climate series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C - Applied Statistics, 53, 405-425. VINCENT, L.A., ZHANG, X., BONSAL, B.R., HOGG, W.D. (2002): Homogenization of daily temperatures over Canada. Journal of Climate, 15, 1322-1334

Oxygen and carbon stable isotopes in coast redwood tree rings respond to spring and summer climate signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnstone, James A.; Roden, John S.; Dawson, Todd E.

2013-12-01

variability in the oxygen and carbon isotope composition of tree ring cellulose was investigated in coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) from three sites in coastal Northern California. Middle and late wood samples from annual tree rings were compared to regional climate indices and gridded ocean-atmosphere fields for the years 1952-2003. The strongest climate-isotope relationship (r = 0.72) was found with summer (June-September) daily maximum temperature and middle wood δ13, which also responds positively to coastal sea surface temperature and negatively to summer low cloud frequency. Late wood δ18O reflects a balance between 18O-enriched summer fog drip and depleted summer rainwater, while a combined analysis of late wood δ18O and δ13C revealed sensitivity to the sign of summer precipitation anomalies. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of regional summer climate indices and coast redwood stable isotopes identified multivariate isotopic responses to summer fog and drought that correspond to atmospheric circulation anomalies over the NE Pacific and NW U.S. The presence of regional climate signals in coast redwood stable isotope composition, consistent with known mechanistic processes and prior studies, offers the potential for high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions of the California current system from this long-lived tree species.

Probabilistic properties of the date of maximum river flow, an approach based on circular statistics in lowland, highland and mountainous catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutkowska, Agnieszka; Kohnová, Silvia; Banasik, Kazimierz

2018-04-01

Probabilistic properties of dates of winter, summer and annual maximum flows were studied using circular statistics in three catchments differing in topographic conditions; a lowland, highland and mountainous catchment. The circular measures of location and dispersion were used in the long-term samples of dates of maxima. The mixture of von Mises distributions was assumed as the theoretical distribution function of the date of winter, summer and annual maximum flow. The number of components was selected on the basis of the corrected Akaike Information Criterion and the parameters were estimated by means of the Maximum Likelihood method. The goodness of fit was assessed using both the correlation between quantiles and a version of the Kuiper's and Watson's test. Results show that the number of components varied between catchments and it was different for seasonal and annual maxima. Differences between catchments in circular characteristics were explained using climatic factors such as precipitation and temperature. Further studies may include circular grouping catchments based on similarity between distribution functions and the linkage between dates of maximum precipitation and maximum flow.

Holocene evolution of aquatic bioactivity and terrestrial erosion inferred from Skorarvatn, Vestfirðir, Iceland: Where is the Little Ice Age?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harning, D.; Geirsdottir, A.; Miller, G. H.

2016-12-01

Icelandic lake sediment is well suited to provide high-resolution, well-dated continuous archives of North Atlantic climate variability. We provide new insight into the Holocene climate evolution of Vestfirðir, NW Iceland, from a 10.3 ka multi-proxy lake sediment record from non-glacial lake Skorarvatn. Age control is derived from a combination of tephrochronology and 14C-dated macrofossils. Sediment samples were analyzed for both physical (MS, density) and biological (TC, TN, δ13C, δ15N, C/N, BSi) climate proxies, providing a sub-centennial record of aquatic bioactivity and terrestrial landscape stability, and hence, summer temperature. The lake basin was ice free by at least 10.3 ka yet the waning Icelandic Ice Sheet persisted in the catchment until 9.3 ka. The local Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), inferred from maximum aquatic bioactivity, spans 8.9 to 7.2 ka but was interrupted by significant cooling at 8.2 ka. In accordance with other Icelandic climate records documenting progressively cooler summers following the HTM, our record reveals reduced aquatic productivity and elevated terrestrial erosion toward the present. Superimposed on this 1st order trend are abrupt episodes of cooling, inferred from low aquatic bioactivity and/or enhanced landscape instability, at 6.4, 4.2, 3, 2.5 and 1.5 ka. Surprisingly, there is no clear indication of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in our record despite evidence for the local ice cap, Drangajökull, attaining maximum areal coverage at this time. Persistently low temperatures inferred from reduced aquatic productivity plateau at 2 ka whereas increasing terrestrial erosion ceases at 1 ka. Lack of a catchment erosion signal during the LIA may be the result of depleted catchment soils and/or perennially frozen ground preventing the mobilization of soil and vegetation. With the exception of the LIA, Skorarvatn's qualitative summer temperature record corresponds closely to summer sea surface temperature and sea ice records on the North Iceland Shelf, supporting previous evidence that the North Atlantic imparts a significant impact of the state of Iceland's terrestrial climate.

Abundance of adult saugers across the Wind River watershed, Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amadio, C.J.; Hubert, W.A.; Johnson, K.; Oberlie, D.; Dufek, D.

2006-01-01

The abundance of adult saugers Sander canadensis was estimated over 179 km of continuous lotic habitat across a watershed on the western periphery of their natural distribution in Wyoming. Three-pass depletions with raft-mounted electrofishing gear were conducted in 283 pools and runs among 19 representative reaches totaling 51 km during the late summer and fall of 2002. From 2 to 239 saugers were estimated to occur among the 19 reaches of 1.6-3.8 km in length. The estimates were extrapolated to a total population estimate (mean ?? 95% confidence interval) of 4,115 ?? 308 adult saugers over 179 km of lotie habitat. Substantial variation in mean density (range = 1.0-32.5 fish/ha) and mean biomass (range = 0.5-16.8 kg/ha) of adult saugers in pools and runs was observed among the study reaches. Mean density and biomass were highest in river reaches with pools and runs that had maximum depths of more than 1 m, mean daily summer water temperatures exceeding 20??C, and alkalinity exceeding 130 mg/L. No saugers were captured in the 39 pools or runs with maximum water depths of 0.6 m or less. Multiple-regression analysis and the information-theoretic approach were used to identify watershed-scale and instream habitat features accounting for the variation in biomass among the 244 pools and runs across the watershed with maximum depths greater than 0.6 m. Sauger biomass was greater in pools than in runs and increased as mean daily summer water temperature, maximum depth, and mean summer alkalinity increased and as dominant substrate size decreased. This study provides an estimate of adult sauger abundance and identifies habitat features associated with variation in their density and biomass across a watershed, factors important to the management of both populations and habitat. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

The oasis effect and summer temperature rise in arid regions - case study in Tarim Basin

PubMed Central

Hao, Xingming; Li, Weihong; Deng, Haijun

2016-01-01

This study revealed the influence of the oasis effect on summer temperatures based on MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and meteorological data. The results showed that the oasis effect occurs primarily in the summer. For a single oasis, the maximum oasis cold island intensity based on LST (OCILST) was 3.82 °C and the minimum value was 2.32 °C. In terms of the annual change in OCILST, the mean value of all oases ranged from 2.47 °C to 3.56 °C from 2001 to 2013. Net radiation (Rn) can be used as a key predictor of OCILST and OCItemperature (OCI based on air temperature). On this basis, we reconstructed a long time series (1961–2014) of OCItemperature and Tbase(air temperature without the disturbance of oasis effect). Our results indicated that the reason for the increase in the observed temperatures was the significant decrease in the OCItemperature over the past 50 years. In arid regions, the data recorded in weather stations not only underestimated the mean temperature of the entire study area but also overestimated the increasing trend of the temperature. These discrepancies are due to the limitations in the spatial distribution of weather stations and the disturbance caused by the oasis effect. PMID:27739500

Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Ying; Wang, Guiling; Gao, Xuejie

2017-11-01

This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875° × 1.25° degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 °C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days' total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to homogeneous forcing (in this case greenhouse gas concentration changes).

Heat waves and heat days in an arid city in the northwest of México: current trends and in climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Cueto, Rafael O García; Martínez, Adalberto Tejeda; Ostos, Ernesto Jáuregui

2010-07-01

The aim of this work is to study heat waves (HWs) in Mexicali, Mexico, because numerous deaths have been reported in this city, caused by heatstroke. This research acquires relevancy because several studies have projected that the health impacts of HWs could increase under various climate change scenarios, especially in countries with low adaptive capacity, as is our case. This paper has three objectives: first, to analyze the observed change in the summer (1 June to 15 September) daily maximum temperature during the period from 1951 to 2006; secondly, to characterize the annual and monthly evolution of frequency, duration and intensity of HWs; and finally, to generate scenarios of heat days (HDs) by means of a statistical downscaling model, in combination with a global climate model (HadCM3), for the 2020 s, 2050 s, and 2080 s. The results show summer maximum temperatures featured warming and cooling periods from 1951 until the mid-1980s and, later, a rising tendency, which prevailed until 2006. The duration and intensity of HWs have increased for all summer months, which is an indicator of the severity of the problem; in fact, there are 2.3 times more HWs now than in the decade of the 1970s. The most appropriate distribution for modeling the occurrence of HDs was the Weibull, with the maximum temperature as co-variable. For the 2020 s, 2050 s, and 2080 s, HDs under a medium-high emissions scenario (A2) could increase relative to 1961-1990, by 2.1, 3.6, and 5.1 times, respectively, whereas under a medium-low emissions scenario (B2), HDs could increase by 2.4, 3.4, and 4.0, for the same projections of time.

Heat waves and heat days in an arid city in the northwest of México: current trends and in climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cueto, Rafael O. García; Martínez, Adalberto Tejeda; Ostos, Ernesto Jáuregui

2010-07-01

The aim of this work is to study heat waves (HWs) in Mexicali, Mexico, because numerous deaths have been reported in this city, caused by heatstroke. This research acquires relevancy because several studies have projected that the health impacts of HWs could increase under various climate change scenarios, especially in countries with low adaptive capacity, as is our case. This paper has three objectives: first, to analyze the observed change in the summer (1 June to 15 September) daily maximum temperature during the period from 1951 to 2006; secondly, to characterize the annual and monthly evolution of frequency, duration and intensity of HWs; and finally, to generate scenarios of heat days (HDs) by means of a statistical downscaling model, in combination with a global climate model (HadCM3), for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The results show summer maximum temperatures featured warming and cooling periods from 1951 until the mid-1980s and, later, a rising tendency, which prevailed until 2006. The duration and intensity of HWs have increased for all summer months, which is an indicator of the severity of the problem; in fact, there are 2.3 times more HWs now than in the decade of the 1970s. The most appropriate distribution for modeling the occurrence of HDs was the Weibull, with the maximum temperature as co-variable. For the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, HDs under a medium-high emissions scenario (A2) could increase relative to 1961-1990, by 2.1, 3.6, and 5.1 times, respectively, whereas under a medium-low emissions scenario (B2), HDs could increase by 2.4, 3.4, and 4.0, for the same projections of time.

How changes of climate extremes affect summer and winter crop yields and water productivity in the southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Cammarano, D.

2017-12-01

Modeling changes of crop production at regional scale is important to make adaptation measures for sustainably food supply under global change. In this study, we explore how changing climate extremes in the 20th and 21st century affect maize (summer crop) and wheat (winter crop) yields in an agriculturally important region: the southeast United States. We analyze historical (1950-1999) and projected (2006-2055) precipitation and temperature extremes by calculating the changes of 18 climate extreme indices using the statistically downscaled CMIP5 data from 10 general circulation models (GCMs). To evaluate how these climate extremes affect maize and wheat yields, historical baseline and projected maize and wheat yields under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are simulated using the DSSAT-CERES maize and wheat models driven by the same downscaled GCMs data. All of the changes are examined at 110 locations over the study region. The results show that most of the precipitation extreme indices do not have notable change; mean precipitation, precipitation intensity, and maximum 1-day precipitation are generally increased; the number of rainy days is decreased. The temperature extreme indices mostly showed increased values on mean temperature, number of high temperature days, diurnal temperature range, consecutive high temperature days, maximum daily maximum temperature, and minimum daily minimum temperature; the number of low temperature days and number of consecutive low temperature days are decreased. The conditional probabilistic relationships between changes in crop yields and changes in extreme indices suggested different responses of crop yields to climate extremes during sowing to anthesis and anthesis to maturity periods. Wheat yields and crop water productivity for wheat are increased due to an increased CO2 concentration and minimum temperature; evapotranspiration, maize yields, and crop water productivity for wheat are decreased owing to the increased temperature extremes. We found the effects of precipitation changes on both yields are relatively uncertain.

Modeling changes in summer temperature of the Fraser River during the next century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrari, Michael R.; Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.

2007-09-01

SummaryThe Fraser River basin in British Columbia has significant environmental, economic and cultural importance. Healthy river conditions through sufficient flows and optimal temperatures are of paramount importance for the survival of Pacific salmon, which migrate upriver toward the headwaters to spawn near the end of their lives. Trends have been detected which indicate that the annual flow and summer temperature have been increasing since the middle of the last century. In this study we examine the observed trend in summer temperature of the Fraser River and compare it with temperatures calculated as part of a global climate model (GCM) simulation in which atmospheric greenhouse gases are increasing. We then use the GCM to consider how these trends might continue through the present century. Both the observations and model indicate that during the last half of the 20th century, the summer temperature near the river mouth has been increasing at a rate of approximately 0.12 °C per decade in August. In this study we use an online method in which river temperatures are calculated directly as part of a GCM simulation and project how summer temperature near the mouth of the Fraser River might change by the end of the present century. The results indicate that between 2000 and 2100 river temperatures will increase in all summer months with a maximum increase of 0.14 °C per decade in August. This result is consistent with an offline modeling study by [Morrison, J., Quick, M.C., Goreman, M.G.G. 2002. Climate change in the Fraser River watershed: flow and temperature projections. Journal of Hydrology, 263, 230-244] in which they used output from two GCMS to drive a hydrologic model and predict future changes in river temperature and supports their contention that the timing and magnitude of the increase could be crucial for salmon migration. Future work can extend this analysis to other river systems in an effort to project the potential effects of climate change on the behavior of the world's large river basins, as well as identify the potential biological effects that may accompany these changes.

"Cold" and "hot" thermal anomalies/events during spring and autumn in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graczyk, Dariusz; Szwed, Małgorzata; Choryński, Adam

2014-05-01

Regular air temperatures' changes, as an effect of succession of the seasons, are a part of people's everyday life. When winters and summers are not characterised by extreme thermal conditions, people are well prepared and there are no losses for agriculture and economy or human health consequences observed. A similar situation takes place in case of typical springs and autumns, where normally no too low or too high air temperatures occur. The situation becomes totally different when the air temperature significantly exceeds frames of typical temperature for particular months or seasons. Appearance of winter conditions during months in which they are not expected may lead to losses in different branches of the economy e.g. transport or agriculture. Heat in non-summer months potentially brings less damages for the economy, but it might be a great threat for human health, especially for those with cardiological diseases, and it may result in thermal discomfort. If these conditions last for sufficient period of time, they may cause disorders in plant vegetation cycles. One element of the discussion held on the global warming which has been observed since the half of the twentieth century, is the question of how this effects the occurrence of climatic anomalies. Does it result in an decrease of "cold" thermal anomalies and in an increase of frequency of "hot" anomalies? Or does it increase the occurrence of both types of these events? In this research there will be performed an analysis of the occurrence of conditions typical for winter months, outside the climatic winter (December, January, February) at ten locations in the area of Poland. During the months directly close to this period (November and March) the threshold for winter conditions will be maximum temperature below 0 oC which means occurrence of frost all day long. For other non-summer months the threshold will be mean daily temperature below 0 oC meaning low temperatures during the day, not only morning frosts. A similar procedure will be used for summer conditions outside the climatic summer (June, July, August), where for months close to climatic summer (May and September) the thresholds will be set at maximum temperature higher than 30 oC and 25 oC for other spring and autumn months. In order to assess if, and to what extent , the occurrence of anomalies and rare thermal events changes, their number will be compared in three sub-periods: 1951-1980; 1961-1990; 1991-2013 (the period after 1990, where warming in Poland is observed). The final stage of the analysis will be detection of trend of anomalies calculated for ten meteorological stations in the multi-year period of 1951-2013, using statistical tests in time series.

Modeling The Urban Impact On Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study In Marrakesh, Morocco

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Messouli, Mohamed

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

Modeling the Urban Impact on Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study in Marrakech, Morocco

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Moussouli, Mohamed

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

Global characteristics in the diurnal variations of the thermospheric temperature and composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, H. G.; Hedin, A. E.; Reber, C. A.; Carignan, G. R.

1973-01-01

Global characteristics in the diurnal components of OGO-6 neutral mass spectrometer measurements near 450 km are discussed qualitatively as well as quantitatively on the basis of a theoretical model. Observations and conclusion are summarized: (1) During equinox the temperature maximum occurs after 1600 LT at the equator and shifts toward 1500 LT at the poles, while the oxygen concentration at 450 km peaks about one hour earlier. (2) There is general agreement between the magnitudes and phases of the diurnal, semidiurnal and terdiuranal temperature components at 450 km from theory as well as OGO-6 and radar backscatter measurements. (3) The maximum in the diurnal variation of He is observed near 1030 LT consistent with theoretical results which further emphasize the importance of dynamics and diffusion. (4) During solstice conditions the diurnal temperature maximum shifts toward later local times, in substantial agreement with radar temperature measurements. (5) the temperature-oxygen density phase difference at 450 km is observed to decrease with latitude from the winter toward the summer hemisphere, where oxygen may even peak after the temperature at high latitudes.

Assessment of air quality in a commercial cattle transport vehicle in Swedish summer and winter conditions.

PubMed

Wikner, I; Gebresenbet, G; Nilsson, C

2003-03-01

Transport by road can induce significant stress in cattle. Thermal stress is among the main stress producing factors during transport. The provision of ventilation in livestock transport vehicles is usually through openings along the sides of the vehicle. The incoming air will affect air quality inside by regulating temperature, relative humidity, gas levels and levels of other contaminants. The aim of the present investigation was to map out the air quality in a commercial cattle transport vehicle under various climatic conditions and with varying stocking densities and transport times. Distributions of air temperature, relative humidity and concentrations of ammonia, carbon dioxide, oxygen and methane have been determined during 35 experimental journeys. In average the mean temperature inside the compartment was about 3 degrees C and 6 degrees C higher than outside temperature in summer (+7.8(-)+24.0 degrees C) and winter (-24.3(-)+12.7 degrees C) conditions respectively. The temperature increment inside, as could be expected from theory, increased with reduced ventilation and increased animal density. Many stops to load new animals lowered the temperature increment and relative humidity in winter time. In summer more stops made the compartment temperature and relative humidity increase. The inside temperature distribution was less than about 3 degrees C during both summer and winter season. Average ammonia level varied between 3 and 6 ppm depending on stocking density and number of stops with a maximum value of 18 ppm. No detectable methane levels could be found inside the compartment at any time.

Aquatic metabolism response to the hydrologic alteration in the Yellow River estuary, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Xiaomei; Sun, Tao; Liu, Fangfang; Xu, Jing; Pang, Aiping

2015-06-01

Successful artificial hydrologic regulation and environmental flow assessments for the ecosystem protection require an accurate understanding of the linkages between flow events and biotic responses. To explore an ecosystem's functional responses to hydrologic alterations, we analysed spatial and temporal variations in aquatic metabolism and the main factors influenced by artificial hydrologic alterations based on the data collected from 2009 to 2012 in the Yellow River estuary, China. Gross primary production (GPP) ranged from 0.002 to 8.488 mg O2 L-1 d-1. Ecosystem respiration (ER) ranged from 0.382 to 8.968 mg O2 L-1 d-1. Net ecosystem production (NEP) ranged from -5.792 to 7.293 mg O2 L-1 d-1 and the mean of NEP was -0.506 mg O2 L-1 d-1, which means that the trophic status of entire estuary was near to balance. The results showed that seasonal variations in the aquatic metabolism are influenced by the hydrologic alteration in the estuary. High water temperature and solar radiation in summer are associated with low turbidity and consequently high rates of GPP and ER, making the estuary net autotrophic in summer, and that also occurred after water-sediment regulation in August. Turbidity and water temperature were identified as two particularly important factors that influenced the variation in the metabolic balance. As a result, metabolism rate did not decrease but increased after the regulation. ER increased significantly in summer and autumn and reached a maximum after the water-sediment regulation in September. GPP and NEP reached a maximum value after the water-sediment regulation in August, and then decreased in autumn. Estuarine ecosystem shifted from net heterotrophy in spring to net autotrophy in summer, and then to net heterotrophy in autumn. Our study indicated that estuarine metabolism may recover to a high level faster in summer than that in other seasons after the short-term water-sediment regulation due to higher water temperature and nutrients.

Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum - a model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, F.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Kučera, M.; Grimm, R.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Schmiedl, G.; Emeis, K.-C.

2011-10-01

Nine thousand years ago (9 ka BP), the Northern Hemisphere experienced enhanced seasonality caused by an orbital configuration close to the minimum of the precession index. To assess the impact of this "Holocene Insolation Maximum" (HIM) on the Mediterranean Sea, we use a regional ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric input derived from global simulations. A stronger seasonal cycle is simulated by the model, which shows a relatively homogeneous winter cooling and a summer warming with well-defined spatial patterns, in particular, a subsurface warming in the Cretan and western Levantine areas. The comparison between the SST simulated for the HIM and a reconstruction from planktonic foraminifera transfer functions shows a poor agreement, especially for summer, when the vertical temperature gradient is strong. As a novel approach, we propose a reinterpretation of the reconstruction, to consider the conditions throughout the upper water column rather than at a single depth. We claim that such a depth-integrated approach is more adequate for surface temperature comparison purposes in a situation where the upper ocean structure in the past was different from the present-day. In this case, the depth-integrated interpretation of the proxy data strongly improves the agreement between modelled and reconstructed temperature signal with the subsurface summer warming being recorded by both model and proxies, with a small shift to the south in the model results. The mechanisms responsible for the peculiar subsurface pattern are found to be a combination of enhanced downwelling and wind mixing due to strengthened Etesian winds, and enhanced thermal forcing due to the stronger summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Together, these processes induce a stronger heat transfer from the surface to the subsurface during late summer in the western Levantine; this leads to an enhanced heat piracy in this region, a process never identified before, but potentially characteristic of time slices with enhanced insolation.

Corrigendum to "Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum - a model study" published in Clim. Past, 7, 1103-1122, 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, F.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Kučera, M.; Grimm, R.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Schmiedl, G.; Emeis, K.-C.

2011-11-01

Nine thousand years ago (9 ka BP), the Northern Hemisphere experienced enhanced seasonality caused by an orbital configuration close to the minimum of the precession index. To assess the impact of this "Holocene Insolation Maximum" (HIM) on the Mediterranean Sea, we use a regional ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric input derived from global simulations. A stronger seasonal cycle is simulated by the model, which shows a relatively homogeneous winter cooling and a summer warming with well-defined spatial patterns, in particular, a subsurface warming in the Cretan and western Levantine areas. The comparison between the SST simulated for the HIM and a reconstruction from planktonic foraminifera transfer functions shows a poor agreement, especially for summer, when the vertical temperature gradient is strong. As a novel approach, we propose a reinterpretation of the reconstruction, to consider the conditions throughout the upper water column rather than at a single depth. We claim that such a depth-integrated approach is more adequate for surface temperature comparison purposes in a situation where the upper ocean structure in the past was different from the present-day. In this case, the depth-integrated interpretation of the proxy data strongly improves the agreement between modelled and reconstructed temperature signal with the subsurface summer warming being recorded by both model and proxies, with a small shift to the south in the model results. The mechanisms responsible for the peculiar subsurface pattern are found to be a combination of enhanced downwelling and wind mixing due to strengthened Etesian winds, and enhanced thermal forcing due to the stronger summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Together, these processes induce a stronger heat transfer from the surface to the subsurface during late summer in the western Levantine; this leads to an enhanced heat piracy in this region, a process never identified before, but potentially characteristic of time slices with enhanced insolation.

Properties, formation, and dissipation of the North Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water and its impact on interannual spiciness anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katsura, Shota

2018-03-01

The properties, formation, and dissipation of the North Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (ESTMW), their interannual variability, and impact on spiciness anomalies in the upper permanent pycnocline were investigated using Argo profiling float data in 2005-2015. The core temperature and salinity of ESTMWs were horizontally compensated to a constant density, and core potential density concentrates in a range of 24.5-25.2 kg m-3 with two distinct peaks. ESTMWs showed different spatial distribution and persistence for its core potential density. Denser ESTMWs with a potential density of 24.9-25.2 kg m-3 were formed in winter mixed layer depth maximum centered at 30°N, 140°W and lighter ESTMWs of 24.5-24.9 kg m-3 were formed south and east of it. After formation through shoaling of the winter mixed layer, the former persisted until the following autumn and a small part of it subducted in winter, while the latter dissipated in summer. The formation region of ESTMW corresponded to the summer sea surface density maximum resulting from its poleward sea surface salinity front. Sea surface density maximum maintains weak stratification during summer, preconditioning the deepening of the winter mixed layer and hence the formation of ESTMWs. A relationship between the ESTMW formation region and the summer sea surface density maximum was also found in the North Atlantic and the South Pacific, implying the importance of sea surface salinity fronts and the associated summer sea surface density maximum to ESTMW formation. Interannual variations of ESTMW reflected that of the winter mixed layer in its formation region, and the thickness of ESTMW was related to the Pacific decadal oscillation. ESTMW contributed to the occurrence of spice injection and affected spiciness anomalies in the upper permanent pycnocline through its formation and dissipation.

Climatic significance of the ostracode fauna from the Pliocene Kap Kobenhavn Formation, north Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brouwers, E.M.; Jorgensen, N.O.; Cronin, T. M.

1991-01-01

The Kap Kobenhavn Formation crops out in Greenland at 80??N latitude and marks the most northerly onshore Pliocene locality known. The sands and silts that comprise the formation were deposited in marginal marine and shallow marine environments. An abundant and diverse vertebrate and invertebrate fauna and plant megafossil flora provide age and paleoclimatic constraints. The age estimated for the Kap Kobenhavn ranges from 2.0 to 3.0 million years old. Winter and summer bottom water paleotemperatures were estimated on the basis of the ostracode assemblages. The marine ostracode fauna in units B1 and B2 indicate a subfrigid to frigid marine climate, with estimated minimum sea bottom temperatures (SBT) of -2??C and estimated maximum SBT of 6-8??C. Sediments assigned to unit B2 at locality 72 contain a higher proportion of warm water genera, and the maximum SBT is estimated at 9-10??C. The marginal marine fauna in the uppermost unit B3 (locality 68) indicates a cold temperate to subfrigid marine climate, with an estimated minimum SBT of -2??C and an estimated maximum SBT ranging as high as 12-14??C. These temperatures indicated that, on the average, the Kap Kobenhavn winters in the late Pliocene were similar to or perhaps 1-2??C warmer than winters today and that summer temperatures were 7-8??C warmer than today. -from Authors

Fog as an ecosystem service: Quantifying fog-mediated reductions in maximum temperature across coastal to inland transects in northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torregrosa, A.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Combs, C.; Peters, J.

2013-12-01

Several studies have documented the human benefits of temperature cooling derived from coastal fog such as the reduction in the number of hospital visits/emergency response requests from heat stress-vulnerable population sectors or decreased energy consumption during periods when summer maximum temperatures are lower than normal. In this study we quantify the hourly, daily, monthly and seasonal thermal effect of fog and low clouds (FLC) hours on maximum summer temperatures across a northern California landscape. The FLC data summaries are calculated from the CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) 10 year archive that were derived from hourly night and day images using channels 1 (Visible), 2 (3.6 μm) and 4 (10.7 μm) NOAA GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite). The FLC summaries were analyzed with two sets of site based data, meteorological (met) station-based measurements and downscaled interpolated PRISM data for selected point locations spanning a range of coastal to inland geographic conditions and met station locations. In addition to finding a 0.4 degree C per hour of FLC effect, our results suggest variability related to site specific thermal response. For example, sites closest to the coast have less thermal variability between low cloud and sunny days than sites further from the coast suggesting a much stronger influence of ocean temperature than of FLC thermal dynamics. The thermal relief provided by summertime FLC is equivalent in magnitude to the temperature increase projected by the driest and hottest of regional downscaled climate models using the A2 ('worst') IPCC scenario. Extrapolating these thermal calculations can facilitate future quantifications of the ecosystem service provided by summertime low clouds and fog.

The Choptank Basin in transition: intensifying agriculture, slow urbanization, and estuarine eutrophication

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Choptank basin and estuary are located on the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain on the Delmarva Peninsula. The regional hydrology is characterized by nearly uniform rainfall, but large seasonal variations in temperature and evapotranspiration (maximum in summer) drive large seasonal changes in groundwa...

Effects of increasing aerosol on regional climate change in China: Observation and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Y.; Leung, L.; Ghan, S. J.

2002-12-01

We present regional simulations of climate, aerosol properties, and direct radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosol and analyze the pollutant emissions and observed climatic data during the latter decades of last century in China. The regional model generally captures the spatial distributions and seasonal pattern of temperature and precipitation. Aerosol extinction coefficient and aerosol optical depth are generally well simulated in both magnitude and spatial distribution, which provides a reliable foundation for estimating the radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosol. The radiative forcing of aerosol is in the range of -1 to -14 W m-2 in autumn and summer and -1 to -9 W m-2 in spring and winter, with substantial spatial variability at the sub-regional scale. A strong maximum in negative radiative forcing corresponding to the maximum optical depth is found over the Sichuan Basin, where emission as well as relative humidity are high, and stagnant atmospheric conditions inhibit pollutants dispersion. Negative radiative forcing of aerosol induces a surface cooling, which is stronger in the range of -0.6 to -1.2oC in autumn and winter than in spring (-0.3 to -0.6oC) and summer (0.0 to -0.9oC) over the Sichuan Basin and East China due to more significant effects of cloud and precipitation in the summer and spring. Aerosol-induced cooling is mainly contributed by cooling in the daytime temperature. The cooling reaches a maximum and is statistically significant in the Sichuan Basin. The effect of aerosol on precipitation is not evident in our simulations. The temporal and spatial patterns of temperature trends observed in the second half of the twentieth century, including the asymmetric daily maximum and minimum temperature trends, are at least qualitatively consistent with the simulated aerosol-induced cooling over the Sichuan Basin and East China. It supports the hypothesis that the observed temperature trends during the latter decades of the twentieth century, especially the cooling trends over the Sichuan Basin and some parts of East China, which are exceptions to the large scale warming trend in the northern hemisphere, are at least partly related to the cooling induced by atmospheric aerosol loading that has been increasing since the middle of the last century.

Seasonal changes in the thermoenergetics of the marsupial sugar glider, Petaurus breviceps.

PubMed

Holloway, J C; Geiser, F

2001-11-01

Little information is available on seasonal changes in thermal physiology and energy expenditure in marsupials. To provide new information on the subject, we quantified how body mass, body composition, metabolic rate, maximum heat production, body temperature and thermal conductance change with season in sugar gliders (Petaurus breviceps) held in outdoor aviaries. Sugar gliders increased body mass in autumn to a peak in May/June, which was caused to a large extent by an increase in body fat content. Body mass then declined to minimum values in August/September. Resting metabolic rate both below and above the thermoneutral zone (TNZ) was higher in summer than in winter and the lower critical temperature of the TNZ occurred at a higher ambient temperature (Ta) in summer. The basal metabolic rate was as much as 45% below that predicted from allometric equations for placental mammals and was about 15% lower in winter than in summer. In contrast, maximum heat production was raised significantly by about 20% in winter. This, together with an approximately 20% decrease in thermal conductance, resulted in a 13 degrees C reduction of the minimum effective Ta gliders were able to withstand. Our study provides the first evidence that, despite the apparent lack of functional brown adipose tissue, sugar gliders are able to significantly increase heat production in winter. Moreover, the lower thermoregulatory heat production at most TaS in winter, when food in the wild is scarce, should allow them to reduce energy expenditure.

Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

2005-01-01

During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

Chironomid-based reconstructions of summer air temperature from lake deposits in Lyndon Stream, New Zealand spanning the MIS 3/2 transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodward, C. A.; Shulmeister, J.

2007-01-01

We present chironomid-based temperature reconstructions from lake sediments deposited between ca 26,600 cal yr BP and 24,500 cal yr BP from Lyndon Stream, South Island, New Zealand. Summer (February mean) temperatures averaged 1 °C cooler, with a maximum inferred cooling of 3.7 °C. These estimates corroborate macrofossil and beetle-based temperature inferences from the same site and suggest climate amelioration (an interstadial) at this time. Other records from the New Zealand region also show a large degree of variability during the late Otiran glacial sequence (34,000-18,000 cal yr BP) including a phase of warming at the MIS 2/3 transition and a maximum cooling that did not occur until the global LGM (ca 20,000 cal yr BP). The very moderate cooling identified here at the MIS 2/3 transition confirms and enhances the long-standing discrepancy in New Zealand records between pollen and other proxies. Low abundances (<20%) of canopy tree pollen in records from late MIS 3 to the end of MIS 2 cannot be explained by the minor (<5 °C) cooling inferred from this and other studies unless other environmental parameters are considered. Further work is required to address this critical issue.

Thermoregulation of alpacas bred in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattiello, Silvana; Formis, Elena; Barbieri, Sara

2011-03-01

The present study monitored daily and seasonal variations of rectal temperature in response to different environmental temperatures in alpacas bred in the Italian Apennines at 300 m a.s.l. In each season, the rectal temperature of 33 clinically healthy alpacas was measured three times/day (morning, midday, afternoon). Ambient temperatures were also recorded. Rectal temperatures ranged from a minimum value of 35.1 to a maximum of 39.4°C, with a maximum daily thermal excursion (ΔTrec) of 3.2°C. Temperatures increased throughout the day, with highly significant differences recorded in both young and adult animals between all the time bands ( P < 0.001). These differences were particularly dramatic for adults in summer, when the mean rectal temperature in the morning was 36.3 ± 0.13°C, probably as a consequence of recent shearing. Significant ΔTrec differences were recorded depending on the season in both young and adult animals ( P < 0.001), with the highest ΔTrec values recorded in summer (although the highest daily ambient excursion value was recorded in winter). In conclusion, similarly to alpacas bred in their natural environment, alpacas bred in Italy show a wide thermal neutrality zone, which is probably an adaptive response, that allows the animals to save energy. In the Italian Apennines, in order to prevent situations of hypothermia, with possible detrimental effects on alpacas' health and welfare, shearing should be carried out only in warm seasons.

Climate change and the northern Russian treeline zone.

PubMed

MacDonald, G M; Kremenetski, K V; Beilman, D W

2008-07-12

The Russian treeline is a dynamic ecotone typified by steep gradients in summer temperature and regionally variable gradients in albedo and heat flux. The location of the treeline is largely controlled by summer temperatures and growing season length. Temperatures have responded strongly to twentieth-century global warming and will display a magnified response to future warming. Dendroecological studies indicate enhanced conifer recruitment during the twentieth century. However, conifers have not yet recolonized many areas where trees were present during the Medieval Warm period (ca AD 800-1,300) or the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; ca 10,000-3,000 years ago). Reconstruction of tree distributions during the HTM suggests that the future position of the treeline due to global warming may approximate its former Holocene maximum position. An increased dominance of evergreen tree species in the northern Siberian forests may be an important difference between past and future conditions. Based on the slow rates of treeline expansion observed during the twentieth century, the presence of steep climatic gradients associated with the current Arctic coastline and the prevalence of organic soils, it is possible that rates of treeline expansion will be regionally variable and transient forest communities with species abundances different from today's may develop.

Historical Changes in Water Quality, Temperature Regimes, and Cyanobacteria Densities of 20 Midwestern USA Reservoirs

EPA Science Inventory

Water quality and cyanobacteria densities from 1989-2015 were compiled for 20 Midwestern USA reservoirs. Maximum summer cyanobacteria densities increased over the last 7-15 years of the record, with greatest increases typically observed in reservoirs with low watershed forest cov...

Evidence of the Lower Thermospheric Winter-to-Summer Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, L.; Burns, A. G.; Yue, J.

2017-12-01

Numerical studies showed that the lower thermospheric winter-to-summer circulation is driven by wave dissipation, and it plays a significant role in trace gas distributions in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and in the composition of the thermosphere. Direct observations of this circulation are difficult. However, it leaves clear signatures in tracer distributions. Recent analysis of CO2 observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) onboard the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite showed dynamically driven dense isolines of CO2 at summer high latitudes. We conduct modeling and observational studies to understand the CO2 distribution and circulation patterns in the MLT. We found that there exists maximum vertical gradient of CO2 at summer high latitudes, driven by the convergence of the upwelling of the mesospheric circulation and the downwelling of the lower thermospheric circulation; this maximum vertical gradient of CO2 is located at a higher altitude in the winter hemisphere, driven by the convergence of the upwelling of the lower thermospheric circulation and the downwelling of the solar-driven thermospheric circulation. Based on SABER CO2 distribution, the bottom of the lower thermospheric circulation is located between 95 km and 100 km, and it has a vertical extent of 10 km. Analysis of the SABER CO2 and temperature at summer high latitudes showed that the bottom of this circulation is consistently higher than the mesopause height by 10 km; and its location does not change much between solar maximum and solar minimum.

Mid-depth temperature maximum in an estuarine lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepanenko, V. M.; Repina, I. A.; Artamonov, A. Yu; Gorin, S. L.; Lykossov, V. N.; Kulyamin, D. V.

2018-03-01

The mid-depth temperature maximum (TeM) was measured in an estuarine Bol’shoi Vilyui Lake (Kamchatka peninsula, Russia) in summer 2015. We applied 1D k-ɛ model LAKE to the case, and found it successfully simulating the phenomenon. We argue that the main prerequisite for mid-depth TeM development is a salinity increase below the freshwater mixed layer, sharp enough in order to increase the temperature with depth not to cause convective mixing and double diffusion there. Given that this condition is satisfied, the TeM magnitude is controlled by physical factors which we identified as: radiation absorption below the mixed layer, mixed-layer temperature dynamics, vertical heat conduction and water-sediments heat exchange. In addition to these, we formulate the mechanism of temperature maximum ‘pumping’, resulting from the phase shift between diurnal cycles of mixed-layer depth and temperature maximum magnitude. Based on the LAKE model results we quantify the contribution of the above listed mechanisms and find their individual significance highly sensitive to water turbidity. Relying on physical mechanisms identified we define environmental conditions favouring the summertime TeM development in salinity-stratified lakes as: small-mixed layer depth (roughly, ~< 2 m), transparent water, daytime maximum of wind and cloudless weather. We exemplify the effect of mixed-layer depth on TeM by a set of selected lakes.

Drought-induced weakening of growth-temperature associations in high-elevation Iberian pines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diego Galván, J.; Büntgen, Ulf; Ginzler, Christian; Grudd, Håkan; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Labuhn, Inga; Julio Camarero, J.

2015-01-01

The growth/climate relationship of theoretically temperature-controlled high-elevation forests has been demonstrated to weaken over recent decades. This is likely due to new tree growth limiting factors, such as an increasing drought risk for ecosystem functioning and productivity across the Mediterranean Basin. In addition, declining tree growth sensitivity to spring temperature may emerge in response to increasing drought stress. Here, we evaluate these ideas by assessing the growth/climate sensitivity of 1500 tree-ring width (TRW) and 102 maximum density (MXD) measurement series from 711 and 74 Pinus uncinata trees, respectively, sampled at 28 high-elevation forest sites across the Pyrenees and two relict populations of the Iberian System. Different dendroclimatological standardization and split period approaches were used to assess the high- to low-frequency behavior of 20th century tree growth in response to temperature means, precipitation totals and drought indices. Long-term variations in TRW track summer temperatures until about 1970 but diverge afterwards, whereas MXD captures the recent temperature increase in the low-frequency domain fairly well. On the other hand summer drought has increasingly driven TRW along the 20th century. Our results suggest fading temperature sensitivity of Iberian high-elevation P. uncinata forest growth, and reveal the importance of summer drought that is becoming the emergent limiting factor of tree ring width formation in many parts of the Mediterranean Basin.

Effects of seasonal acclimatization on temperature dependence of cardiac excitability in the roach, Rutilus rutilus.

PubMed

Badr, A; El-Sayed, M F; Vornanen, M

2016-05-15

Temperature sensitivity of electrical excitability is a potential limiting factor for performance level and thermal tolerance of excitable tissues in ectothermic animals. To test whether the rate and rhythm of the heart acclimatize to seasonal temperature changes, thermal sensitivity of cardiac excitation in a eurythermal teleost, the roach (Rutilus rutilus), was examined. Excitability of the heart was determined from in vivo electrocardiograms and in vitro microelectrode recordings of action potentials (APs) from winter and summer roach acclimatized to 4 and 18°C, respectively. Under heat ramps (3°C h(-1)), starting from the acclimatization temperatures of the fish, heart rate increased to maximum values of 78±5 beats min(-1) (at 19.8±0.5°C) and 150±7 beats min(-1) (at 28.1±0.5°C) for winter and summer roach, respectively, and then declined in both groups. Below 20°C, heart rate was significantly higher in winter than in summer roach (P<0.05), indicating positive thermal compensation. Cardiac arrhythmias appeared with rising temperature as missing QRS complexes, increase in variability of heart rate, episodes of atrial tachycardia, ventricular bradycardia and complete cessation of the heartbeat (asystole) in both winter and summer roach. Unlike winter roach, atrial APs of summer roach had a distinct early repolarization phase, which appeared as shorter durations of atrial AP at 10% and 20% repolarization levels in comparison to winter roach (P<0.05). In contrast, seasonal acclimatization had only subtle effects on ventricular AP characteristics. Plasticity of cardiac excitation appears to be necessary for seasonal improvements in performance level and thermal resilience of the roach heart. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Linking climate change and biological invasions: Ocean warming facilitates nonindigenous species invasions.

PubMed

Stachowicz, John J; Terwin, Jeffrey R; Whitlatch, Robert B; Osman, Richard W

2002-11-26

The spread of exotic species and climate change are among the most serious global environmental threats. Each independently causes considerable ecological damage, yet few data are available to assess whether changing climate might facilitate invasions by favoring introduced over native species. Here, we compare our long-term record of weekly sessile marine invertebrate recruitment with interannual variation in water temperature to assess the likely effect of climate change on the success and spread of introduced species. For the three most abundant introduced species of ascidian (sea squirt), the timing of the initiation of recruitment was strongly negatively correlated with winter water temperature, indicating that invaders arrived earlier in the season in years with warmer winters. Total recruitment of introduced species during the following summer also was positively correlated with winter water temperature. In contrast, the magnitude of native ascidian recruitment was negatively correlated with winter temperature (more recruitment in colder years) and the timing of native recruitment was unaffected. In manipulative laboratory experiments, two introduced compound ascidians grew faster than a native species, but only at temperatures near the maximum observed in summer. These data suggest that the greatest effects of climate change on biotic communities may be due to changing maximum and minimum temperatures rather than annual means. By giving introduced species an earlier start, and increasing the magnitude of their growth and recruitment relative to natives, global warming may facilitate a shift to dominance by nonnative species, accelerating the homogenization of the global biota.

Low summer water temperatures influence occurrence of naturalized salmonids across a mountain watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mullner, S.A.; Hubert, W.A.

2005-01-01

We investigated relationships between the absence of salmonids and low summer water temperatures across a 150-km2 Rocky Mountain watershed. A model predicting maximum July water temperature (MJT) from measurements of perennial stream length, wetted width, and midrange basin elevation was developed from temperature data obtained at 20 sites across the watershed. The model was used to predict MJT in 75 reaches across the watershed where salmonids were sampled. The lowest predicted MJT in reaches where age-0 and juvenile-adult brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis were observed was 9??C. The lowest predicted MJT in reaches where age-0 progeny of the genus Oncorhynchus spp. (i.e., rainbow trout O. mykiss or cutthroat trout O. clarkii) were observed was 13??C and where Oncorhynchus spp. adults where observed was 12??C. The probability of occurrence of both age-0 and adult brook trout and Oncorhynchus spp. increased as MJT increased above these thresholds. Our results indicate that low MJT in some portions of a mountain watershed can be related to the absence of salmonids. Consequently, data on MJT may provide managers with a means of assessing where summer water temperatures are not suitable for establishment of naturalized salmonid populations. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

Climate trends of the North American prairie pothole region 1906-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millett, B.; Johnson, W.C.; Guntenspergen, G.

2009-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1°C in the north to nearly 10°C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally has been getting warmer and wetter and the diurnal temperature range has decreased. Minimum daily temperatures warmed by 1.0°C, while maximum daily temperatures cooled by 0.15°C. Minimum temperature warmed more in winter than in summer, while maximum temperature cooled in summer and warmed in winter. Average annual precipitation increased by 49 mm or 9%. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) trends reflected increasing moisture availability for most weather stations; however, several stations in the western Canadian Prairies recorded effectively drier conditions. The east-west moisture gradient steepened during the twentieth century with stations in the west becoming drier and stations in the east becoming wetter. If the moisture gradient continues to steepen, the area of productive wetland ecosystems will shrink. Consequences for wetlands would be especially severe if the future climate does not provide supplemental moisture to offset higher evaporative demand.

Using Multiple Metrics to Analyze Trends and Sensitivity of Climate Variability in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Towey, K.; Booth, J. F.; Baez, S. D.

2017-12-01

As the overall temperature of Earth continues to warm, changes in the Earth's climate are being observed through extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation events and heat waves. This study examines the daily precipitation and temperature record of the greater New York City region during the 1979-2014 period. Daily station observations from three greater New York City airports: John F. Kennedy (JFK), LaGuardia (LGA) and Newark (EWR), are used in this study. Multiple statistical metrics are used in this study to analyze trends and variability in temperature and precipitation in the greater New York City region. The temperature climatology reveals a distinct seasonal cycle, while the precipitation climatology exhibits greater annual variability. Two types of thresholds are used to examine the variability of extreme events: extreme threshold and daily anomaly threshold. The extreme threshold indicates how the strength of the overall maximum is changing whereas the daily anomaly threshold indicates if the strength of the daily maximum is changing over time. We observed an increase in the frequency of anomalous daily precipitation events over the last 36 years, with the greatest frequency occurring in 2011. The most extreme precipitation events occur during the months of late summer through early fall, with approximately four expected extreme events occurring per year during the summer and fall. For temperature, the greatest frequency and variation in temperature anomalies occur during winter and spring. In addition, temperature variance is also analyzed to determine if there is greater day-to-day temperature variability today than in the past.

High temperature impact on fatigue life of asphalt mixture in Slovakia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandula, Ján; Olexa, Tomáš

2017-09-01

Temperature dependence of materials bonded with bitumen is a well-known fact. The impact of temperature changes the behaviour of asphalt mixtures from elastic to viscous state, and it also influences the complex modulus, phase angle and other properties of asphalt mixtures. This study observed the summer temperature influence on fatigue behaviour of an asphalt mixture for the surface course of roads in conditions of Slovakia. Measurements were made using the four-point bending method on the asphalt mixture with maximum grain size of 11 mm bonded with polymer modified bitumen. Summer conditions were represented by environmental temperature of 27 °C according to the Slovakian pavement design method. Ordinary temperatures for fatigue measurements are 10 °C, 15 °C and 20 °C according to European standards for asphalt mixture testing. Structural changes in the material were observed by dissipation energy calculations for each loading cycle. The aim of the study was to find out if the influence of high environmental temperature is positive or negative for the lifespan of asphalt mixtures.

Holocene temperature history of northern Iceland inferred from subfossil midges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Yarrow; Miller, Gifford H.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Langdon, Peter G.

2007-12-01

The Holocene temperature history of Iceland is not well known, despite Iceland's climatically strategic location at the intersection of major surface currents in the high-latitude North Atlantic. Existing terrestrial records reveal spatially heterogeneous changes in Iceland's glacier extent, vegetation cover, and climate over the Holocene, but these records are temporally discontinuous and mostly qualitative. This paper presents the first quantitative estimates of temperatures throughout the entire Holocene on Iceland. Mean July temperatures are inferred based upon subfossil midge (Chironomidae) assemblages from three coastal lakes in northern Iceland. Midge data from each of the three lakes indicate broadly similar temperature trends, and suggest that the North Icelandic coast experienced relatively cool early Holocene summers and gradual warming throughout the Holocene until after 3 ka. This contrasts with many sites on Iceland and around the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere that experienced an early to mid-Holocene "thermal maximum" in response to enhanced summer insolation forcing. Our results suggest a heightened temperature gradient across Iceland in the early Holocene, with suppressed terrestrial temperatures along the northern coastal fringe, possibly as a result of sea surface conditions on the North Iceland shelf.

Decadal Variation of the Relationship between Western Pacific Subtropical High and Summer Heatwaves in East China Modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Q.; Fu, C.; Zhou, T.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the relationship between Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and summer heatwaves over Eastern China in interannual scale during the period of 1959-2016. Based on surface daily maximum temperature of 654 monitoring stations over China and meteorological variables in reanalysis data, we calculate the number of heatwave days (NHD) (one heatwave day was defined as one day with its daily maximum temperature greater than 35 degrees centigrade) as well as WPSH index and then examine their interannual relationship. Although the high-NHD-related 850hPa horizontal wind structure was shared by that of high WPSH and decaying El Niño summer, a decadal oscillation emerges for the correlation between interannual WPSH and NHD after removing their interdecadal variability by Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method. The correlation coefficient can reach up to as high as 0.69 and as low as 0.17 and assembles the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) pretty well. Compositing analysis demonstrates that unstable WPSH-NHD relationship is mainly attributed to the spatial structure distinction of WPSH and surface warming in the El Niño decaying summer of different PDO phases. In the El Niño decaying summer of positive PDO phases, remarkable enhanced warming over majority of Southeastern China matches well with the noticeable westward extension of WPSH, which seems to be forced by the cyclonic circulation anomaly over Japan. The warmer Pacific-Indian Ocean Warm Pool intensifies the Matsuno-Gill pattern over Maritime Continent, stimulating this cyclonic circulation anomaly via the northward propagation of Rossby wave. In the El Niño decaying summer of negative PDO phases, the cooler East China Sea enhances WPSH in North China and South China Sea, and thereby leads to a local cyclonic circulation anomaly over Eastern China, which would cause a large scope of cooling and out-of-phase WPSH-NHD relationship.

Vegetation placement for summer built surface temperature moderation in an urban microclimate.

PubMed

Millward, Andrew A; Torchia, Melissa; Laursen, Andrew E; Rothman, Lorne D

2014-06-01

Urban vegetation can mitigate increases in summer air temperature by reducing the solar gain received by buildings. To quantify the temperature-moderating influence of city trees and vine-covered buildings, a total of 13 pairs of temperature loggers were installed on the surfaces of eight buildings in downtown Toronto, Canada, for 6 months during the summer of 2008. One logger in each pair was shaded by vegetation while the other measured built surface temperature in full sunlight. We investigated the temperature-moderating benefits of solitary mature trees, clusters of trees, and perennial vines using a linear-mixed model and a multiple regression analysis of degree hour difference. We then assessed the temperature-moderating effect of leaf area, plant size and proximity to building, and plant location relative to solar path. During a period of high solar intensity, we measured an average temperature differential of 11.7 °C, with as many as 10-12 h of sustained cooler built surface temperatures. Vegetation on the west-facing aspect of built structures provided the greatest temperature moderation, with maximum benefit (peak temperature difference) occurring late in the afternoon. Large mature trees growing within 5 m of buildings showed the greatest ability to moderate built surface temperature, with those growing in clusters delivering limited additional benefit compared with isolated trees. Perennial vines proved as effective as trees at moderating rise in built surface temperature to the south and west sides of buildings, providing an attractive alternative to shade trees where soil volume and space are limited.

Vegetation Placement for Summer Built Surface Temperature Moderation in an Urban Microclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millward, Andrew A.; Torchia, Melissa; Laursen, Andrew E.; Rothman, Lorne D.

2014-06-01

Urban vegetation can mitigate increases in summer air temperature by reducing the solar gain received by buildings. To quantify the temperature-moderating influence of city trees and vine-covered buildings, a total of 13 pairs of temperature loggers were installed on the surfaces of eight buildings in downtown Toronto, Canada, for 6 months during the summer of 2008. One logger in each pair was shaded by vegetation while the other measured built surface temperature in full sunlight. We investigated the temperature-moderating benefits of solitary mature trees, clusters of trees, and perennial vines using a linear-mixed model and a multiple regression analysis of degree hour difference. We then assessed the temperature-moderating effect of leaf area, plant size and proximity to building, and plant location relative to solar path. During a period of high solar intensity, we measured an average temperature differential of 11.7 °C, with as many as 10-12 h of sustained cooler built surface temperatures. Vegetation on the west-facing aspect of built structures provided the greatest temperature moderation, with maximum benefit (peak temperature difference) occurring late in the afternoon. Large mature trees growing within 5 m of buildings showed the greatest ability to moderate built surface temperature, with those growing in clusters delivering limited additional benefit compared with isolated trees. Perennial vines proved as effective as trees at moderating rise in built surface temperature to the south and west sides of buildings, providing an attractive alternative to shade trees where soil volume and space are limited.

Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xuebin; Aguilar, Enric; Sensoy, Serhat; Melkonyan, Hamlet; Tagiyeva, Umayra; Ahmed, Nader; Kutaladze, Nato; Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Taghipour, Afsaneh; Hantosh, T. H.; Albert, Pinhas; Semawi, Mohammed; Karam Ali, Mohammad; Said Al-Shabibi, Mansoor Halal; Al-Oulan, Zaid; Zatari, Taha; Al Dean Khelet, Imad; Hamoud, Saleh; Sagir, Ramazan; Demircan, Mesut; Eken, Mehmet; Adiguzel, Mustafa; Alexander, Lisa; Peterson, Thomas C.; Wallis, Trevor

2005-11-01

A climate change workshop for the Middle East brought together scientists and data for the region to produce the first area-wide analysis of climate extremes for the region. This paper reports trends in extreme precipitation and temperature indices that were computed during the workshop and additional indices data that became available after the workshop. Trends in these indices were examined for 1950-2003 at 52 stations covering 15 countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey. Results indicate that there have been statistically significant, spatially coherent trends in temperature indices that are related to temperature increases in the region. Significant, increasing trends have been found in the annual maximum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the annual minimum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the number of summer nights, and the number of days where daily temperature has exceeded its 90th percentile. Significant negative trends have been found in the number of days when daily temperature is below its 10th percentile and daily temperature range. Trends in precipitation indices, including the number of days with precipitation, the average precipitation intensity, and maximum daily precipitation events, are weak in general and do not show spatial coherence. The workshop attendees have generously made the indices data available for the international research community.

Temperature induced changes in size dependent distributions of two boreal and three Lusitanian flatfish species: A comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Hal, Ralf; van Kooten, Tobias; Rijnsdorp, Adriaan D.

2016-01-01

Changes in spatial distribution in several fish species have been related to recent increase in global temperature. In the North Sea, both a poleward shift and a shift to deeper water have been observed. Here, we study the underlying mechanism of these shifts in a comparative study of the changes in distribution of two boreal flatfish species (plaice Pleuronectes platessa and dab Limanda limanda) and three Lusitanian flatfish species (sole Solea solea, solenette Buglossidium luteum, and scaldfish Arnoglossus laterna) as recorded in annual bottom trawl surveys carried out in the North Sea in late summer since 1985. The distribution is analysed in relation to the bottom temperature at the time of the survey as well as to the seasonal maximum bottom temperature earlier in the year. It is shown that the boreal species plaice and dab moved to deeper water and maintained the seasonal maximum temperature that they experienced in earlier periods, while the Lusitanian species sole, solenette, and scaldfish experienced an increase in the seasonal maximum temperature that they experienced while maintaining their depth distribution. This overall response varied between length classes, reflecting a preference for higher temperature of the smaller length classes. The results lend support to the hypothesis that the fish displayed a direct response to the maximum temperature that occurred during the growth season before the time of sampling.

Applications of a New England stream temperature model to evaluate distribution of thermal regimes and sensitivity to change in riparian condition

EPA Science Inventory

We have applied a statistical stream network (SSN) model to predict stream thermal metrics (summer monthly medians, growing season maximum magnitude and timing, and daily rates of change) across New England nontidal streams and rivers, excluding northern Maine watersheds that ext...

Enhanced growth of Juniperus thurifera under a warmer climate is explained by a positive carbon gain under cold and drought.

PubMed

Gimeno, Teresa E; Camarero, J Julio; Granda, Elena; Pías, Beatriz; Valladares, Fernando

2012-03-01

Juniperus thurifera L. is an endemic conifer of the western Mediterranean Basin where it is subjected to a severe climatic stress characterized by low winter temperatures and summer drought. Given the trend of increased warming-induced drought stress in this area and the climatic sensitivity of this species, we expect a negative impact of climate change on growth and ecophysiological performance of J. thurifera in the harsh environments where it dominates. To evaluate this, we measured long- and short-term radial growth using dendrochronology, photosynthesis and water-use efficiency in males, females and juveniles in three sites in Central Spain. Climate was monitored and completed with historical records. Mean annual temperature has increased +0.2 °C per decade in the study area, and the main warming trends corresponded to spring (+0.2 °C per decade) and summer (+0.3 °C per decade). Radial growth and maximum photosynthesis peaked in spring and autumn. Positive photosynthetic rates were maintained all year long, albeit at reduced rates in winter and summer. Radial growth was enhanced by wet conditions in the previous autumn and by warm springs and high precipitation in summer of the year of tree-ring formation. Cloud cover during the summer increased growth, while cloudy winters led to impaired carbon gain and reduced growth in the long term. We argue that maintenance of carbon gain under harsh conditions (low winter temperatures and dry summer months) and plastic xylogenesis underlie J. thurifera's ability to profit from changing climatic conditions such as earlier spring onset and erratic summer rainfall. Our results highlight that not only the magnitude but also the sign of the impact of climate change on growth and persistence of Mediterranean trees is species specific.

Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum - a model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, F.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Kucera, M.; Grimm, R.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Schmiedl, G.; Emeis, K.

2011-05-01

Nine thousand years ago, the Northern Hemisphere experienced enhanced seasonality caused by an orbital configuration with a minimum of the precession index. To assess the impact of the "Holocene Insolation Maximum" (HIM) on the Mediterranean Sea, we use a regional ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric input derived from global simulations. A stronger seasonal cycle is simulated in the model, which shows a relatively homogeneous winter cooling and a summer warming with well-defined spatial patterns, in particular a subsurface warming in the Cretan and Western Levantine areas. The comparison between the SST simulated for the HIM and the reconstructions from planktonic foraminifera transfer functions shows a poor agreement, especially for summer, when the vertical temperature gradient is strong. However, a reinterpretation of the reconstructions is proposed, to consider the conditions throughout the upper water column. Such a depth-integrated approach accounts for the vertical range of preferred habitat depths of the foraminifera used for the reconstructions and strongly improves the agreement between modelled and reconstructed temperature signal. The subsurface warming is recorded by both model and proxies, with a light shift to the south in the model results. The mechanisms responsible for the peculiar subsurface pattern are found to be a combination of enhanced downwelling and wind mixing due to strengthened Etesian winds, and enhanced thermal forcing due to the stronger summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Together, these processes induce a stronger heat transfer from the surface to the subsurface during late summer in the Western Levantine; this leads to an enhanced heat piracy in this region.

Climate impacts of the NAO are sensitive to how the NAO is defined

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokorná, Lucie; Huth, Radan

2015-02-01

We analyze the sensitivity of the effects the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts on surface temperature and precipitation in Europe to the definition of the NAO index. Seven different NAO indices are examined: two based on station sea level pressure (SLP) data, two based on action centers, and three based on correlation/covariance structures described by principal component analysis (PCA). The analysis is based on monthly mean data; winter and summer seasons are analyzed separately. Temporal correlations between indices are weaker in summer than in winter for most pairs of indices. In particular, low correlations are found between station indices on the one hand and PCA-based indices on the other hand. The NAO effects are quantified by correlations between the indices and station data in Europe. Effects of the NAO on precipitation amount and wet day probability are very similar, while NAO effects on maximum temperature are stronger than those on minimum temperature. The sensitivity of the NAO effects on both surface temperature and precipitation to the choice of the NAO index is considerably higher in summer. Correlations differ among the NAO indices not only in their magnitude but in some regions in summer also in their sign. These effects can be explained by a northward shift of the whole NAO pattern and its action centers in summer, away from the sites on which the station indices are based, and by a decoupling of the Azores high and Icelandic low from the centers of high covariability, identified by PCA. Considerable differences in SLP anomaly patterns associated to individual NAO indices also contribute to different responses in temperature and precipitation. Finally, we formulate two recommendations to future analyses of NAO effects on surface climate: use several different NAO indices instead of a single one, and for summer do not use station indices because they do not represent the circulation variability related to the NAO.

Photosynthetic temperature adaptation of Pinus cembra within the timberline ecotone of the Central Austrian Alps

PubMed Central

Wieser, Gerhard; Oberhuber, Walter; Walder, Lisa; Spieler, Daniela; Gruber, Andreas

2011-01-01

Temperature is suggested to determine the upper limit of tree life. Therefore, future climate warming may be of importance for tree distribution within the European Alps, where low temperatures limit carbon metabolism. We focused on the effects of air and soil temperature on net photosynthesis (Pn) of Pinus cembra an evergreen climax species of the timberline ecotone of the Central Austrian Alps. Light response and temperature response curves were estimated along an altitudinal gradient ranging from the forest limit up to the krummholz limit in both summer and fall. In general, Pn was significantly lower in fall as compared to summer. Nevertheless, independent from season mean Pn values tended to increase with elevation and were positively correlated with root zone temperatures. The specific leaf area by contrast declined with increasing elevation. Furthermore, the temperature optimum of net photosynthesis declined with increasing elevation and was positively correlated with the mean maximum air temperature of the 10 days prior the date of measurement. Thus, our findings appear to reflect a long-term adaptation of the photosynthetic apparatus of Pinus cembra to the general temperature conditions with respect to elevation combined with a short term acclimation to the prevailing temperature regime. PMID:21379394

Why the Australian Monsoon Strengthened During the Cold Last Glacial Maximum?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, M.; Wang, B.; Liu, J.; Ning, L.

2017-12-01

The multi-model ensemble simulation suggests that the global monsoon and most sub-monsoons are weakened during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) due to the lower green-house gases concentration, the presence of the ice-sheets and the weakened seasonal distribution of insolation. In contrast, the Australian monsoon is strengthened during the LGM. The precipitation there increases in austral summer and decreases in austral winter, so that the annual range or monsoonality increases. The strengthened monsoonality is mainly due to the decreased precipitation in austral winter, which is primarily caused by circulation changes, although the reduced atmospheric water vapor also has a moderate contribution. On the other hand, the strengthened Australian summer monsoon rainfall is likely caused by the change of land-sea thermal contrast due to the alteration of land-sea configuration and by the asymmetric change in sea surface temperature (SST) over Indo-Pacific warm pool region. The strengthened land-sea thermal contrast and Western Pacific-Eastern Indian Ocean thermal gradients in the pre-summer monsoon season triggers a cyclonic wind anomaly that is maintained to the monsoon season, thereby increasing summer precipitation. The increased summer precipitation is associated with the increased cloud cover over the land and decreased cloud cover over the ocean. This may weaken the land-sea thermal contrast, which agrees with the paleoclimate reconstruction. The biases between different models are likely related to the different responses of SST over the North Atlantic Ocean in the pre-summer monsoon season.

Contribution of different generations of the brown shrimp Crangon crangon (L.) in the Dutch Wadden Sea to commercial fisheries: A dynamic energy budget approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos, Joana; Van der Veer, Henk W.; Freitas, Vânia; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

2009-08-01

In this paper a contribution is made to the ongoing debate on which brown shrimp generation mostly sustains the autumn peak in coastal North Sea commercial fisheries: the generation born in summer, or the winter one. Since the two perspectives are based on different considerations on the growth timeframe from settlement till commercial size, the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory was applied to predict maximum possible growth under natural conditions. First, the parameters of the standard DEB model for Crangon crangon L. were estimated using available data sets. These were insufficient to allow a direct estimation, requiring a special protocol to achieve consistency between parameters. Next, the DEB model was validated by comparing simulations with published experimental data on shrimp growth in relation to water temperatures. Finally, the DEB model was applied to simulate growth under optimal food conditions using the prevailing water temperature conditions in the Wadden Sea. Results show clear differences between males and females whereby the fastest growth rates were observed in females. DEB model simulations of maximum growth in the Wadden Sea suggest that it is not the summer brood from the current year as Boddeke claimed, nor the previous winter generation as Kuipers and Dapper suggested, but more likely the summer generation from the previous year which contributes to the bulk of the fisheries recruits in autumn.

Possible combined influences of absorbing aerosols and anomalous atmospheric circulation on summertime diurnal temperature range variation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Jiaxi; Guan, Zhaoyong; Ma, Fenhua

2016-12-01

Based on the temperature data from the China Meteorological Administration, NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, and the TOMS Aerosol Index (AI), we analyze the variations in the summertime diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature maxima in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in China. The possible relationships between the direct warming effect of the absorbing aerosol and temperature variations are further investigated, although with some uncertainties. It is found that the summertime DTR exhibits a decreasing trend over the most recent 50 years, along with a slight increasing tendency since the 1980s. The trend of the maximum temperature is in agreement with those of the DTR and the absorbing aerosols. To investigate the causes of the large anomalies in the temperature maxima, composite analyses of the circulation anomalies are performed. When anomalous AI and anomalous maximum temperature over the MLRYR have the same sign, an anomalous circulation with a quasi-barotropic structure occurs there. This anomalous circulation is modulated by the Rossby wave energy propagations from the regions northwest of the MLRYR and influences the northwestern Pacific subtropical high over the MLRYR. In combination with aerosols, the anomalous circulation may increase the maximum temperature in this region. Conversely, when the anomalous AI and anomalous maximum temperature in the MLRYR have opposite signs, the anomalous circulation is not equivalently barotropic, which possibly offsets the warming effect of aerosols on the maximum temperature changes in this region. These results are helpful for a better understanding of the DTR changes and the occurrences of temperature extremes in the MLRYR region during boreal summer.

Late Quaternary paleoclimate of western Alaska inferred from fossil chironomids and its relation to vegetation histories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kurek, Joshua; Cwynar, Les C.; Ager, Thomas A.; Abbott, Mark B.; Edwards, Mary E.

2009-01-01

Fossil Chironomidae assemblages (with a few Chaoboridae and Ceratopogonidae) from Zagoskin and Burial Lakes in western Alaska provide quantitative reconstructions of mean July air temperatures for periods of the late-middle Wisconsin (~39,000-34,000 cal yr B.P.) to the present. Inferred temperatures are compared with previously analyzed pollen data from each site summarized here by indirect ordination. Paleotemperature trends reveal substantial differences in the timing of climatic warming following the late Wisconsin at each site, although chronological uncertainty exists. Zagoskin Lake shows early warming beginning at about 21,000 cal yr B.P., whereas warming at Burial Lake begins ~4000 years later. Summer climates during the last glacial maximum (LGM) were on average ~3.5C° below the modern temperatures at each site. Major shifts in vegetation occurred from ~19,000 to 10,000 cal yr B.P. at Zagoskin Lake and from ~17,000 to 10,000 cal yr B.P. at Burial Lake. Vegetation shifts followed climatic warming, when temperatures neared modern values. Both sites provide evidence of an early postglacial thermal maximum at ~12,300 cal yr B.P. These chironomid records, combined with other insect-based climatic reconstructions from Beringia, indicate that during the LGM: (1) greater continentality likely influenced regions adjacent to the Bering Land Bridge and (2) summer climates were, at times, not dominated by severe cold.

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over homogeneous regions of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patwardhan, Savita; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Rao, K. Koteswara

2018-01-01

The impact of climate change on the characteristics of seasonal maximum and minimum temperature and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall is assessed over five homogeneous regions of India using a high-resolution regional climate model. Providing REgional Climate for Climate Studies (PRECIS) is developed at Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK. The model simulations are carried out over South Asian domain for the continuous period of 1961-2098 at 50-km horizontal resolution. Here, three simulations from a 17-member perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) produced using HadCM3 under the Quantifying Model Uncertainties in Model Predictions (QUMP) project of Hadley Centre, Met. Office, UK, have been used as lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the 138-year simulations of the regional climate model under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. The projections indicate the increase in the summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall over all the homogeneous regions (15 to 19%) except peninsular India (around 5%). There may be marginal change in the frequency of medium and heavy rainfall events (>20 mm) towards the end of the present century. The analysis over five homogeneous regions indicates that the mean maximum surface air temperatures for the pre-monsoon season (March-April-May) as well as the mean minimum surface air temperature for winter season (January-February) may be warmer by around 4 °C towards the end of the twenty-first century.

Seasonal divergence in the interannual responses of Northern Hemisphere vegetation activity to variations in diurnal climate.

PubMed

Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Liang, Eryuan; Beck, Pieter S A; Huang, Yongmei

2016-01-11

Seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the daytime and nighttime climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is well documented, but its consequences for vegetation activity remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the interannual responses of vegetation activity to variations of seasonal mean daytime and nighttime climate in NH (>30 °N) during the past decades using remote sensing retrievals, FLUXNET and tree ring data. Despite a generally significant and positive response of vegetation activity to seasonal mean maximum temperature (Tmax) in ~22-25% of the boreal (>50 °N) NH between spring and autumn, spring-summer progressive water limitations appear to decouple vegetation activity from the mean summer Tmax, particularly in climate zones with dry summers. Drought alleviation during autumn results in vegetation recovery from the marked warming-induced drought limitations observed in spring and summer across 24-26% of the temperate NH. Vegetation activity exhibits a pervasively negative correlation with the autumn mean minimum temperature, which is in contrast to the ambiguous patterns observed in spring and summer. Our findings provide new insights into how seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the mean daytime and nighttime climate interacts with water limitations to produce spatiotemporally variable responses of vegetation growth.

Seasonal divergence in the interannual responses of Northern Hemisphere vegetation activity to variations in diurnal climate

PubMed Central

Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Liang, Eryuan; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Huang, Yongmei

2016-01-01

Seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the daytime and nighttime climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is well documented, but its consequences for vegetation activity remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the interannual responses of vegetation activity to variations of seasonal mean daytime and nighttime climate in NH (>30 °N) during the past decades using remote sensing retrievals, FLUXNET and tree ring data. Despite a generally significant and positive response of vegetation activity to seasonal mean maximum temperature () in ~22–25% of the boreal (>50 °N) NH between spring and autumn, spring-summer progressive water limitations appear to decouple vegetation activity from the mean summer , particularly in climate zones with dry summers. Drought alleviation during autumn results in vegetation recovery from the marked warming-induced drought limitations observed in spring and summer across 24–26% of the temperate NH. Vegetation activity exhibits a pervasively negative correlation with the autumn mean minimum temperature, which is in contrast to the ambiguous patterns observed in spring and summer. Our findings provide new insights into how seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the mean daytime and nighttime climate interacts with water limitations to produce spatiotemporally variable responses of vegetation growth. PMID:26751166

Effects of extremely hot days on people older than 65 years in Seville (Spain) from 1986 to 1997

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz, J.; García, R.; Velázquez de Castro, F.; Hernández, E.; López, C.; Otero, A.

2002-04-01

The effects of heat waves on the population have been described by different authors and a consistent relationship between mortality and temperature has been found, especially in elderly subjects. The present paper studies this effect in Seville, a city in the south of Spain, known for its climate of mild winters and hot summers, when the temperature frequently exceeds 40 °C. This study focuses on the summer months (June to September) for the years from 1986 to 1997. The relationships between total daily mortality and different specific causes for persons older than 65 and 75 years, of each gender, were analysed. Maximum daily temperature and relative humidity at 7.00 a.m. were introduced as environmental variables. The possible confounding effect of different atmospheric pollutants, particularly ozone, were considered. The methodology employed was time series analysis using Box-Jenkins models with exogenous variables. On the basis of dispersion diagrams, we defined extremely hot days as those when the maximum daily temperature surpassed 41 °C. The ARIMA model clearly shows the relationship between temperature and mortality. Mortality for all causes increased up to 51% above the average in the group over 75 years for each degree Celsius beyond 41 °C. The effect is more noticeable for cardiovascular than for respiratory diseases, and more in women than in men. Among the atmospheric pollutants, a relation was found between mortality and concentrations of ozone, especially for men older than 75.

Analysis and modeling of extreme temperatures in several cities in northwestern Mexico under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Cueto, O. Rafael; Cavazos, M. Tereza; de Grau, Pamela; Santillán-Soto, Néstor

2014-04-01

The generalized extreme value distribution is applied in this article to model the statistical behavior of the maximum and minimum temperature distribution tails in four cities of Baja California in northwestern Mexico, using data from 1950-2010. The approach used of the maximum of annual time blocks. Temporal trends were included as covariates in the location parameter (μ), which resulted in significant improvements to the proposed models, particularly for the extreme maximum temperature values in the cities of Mexicali, Tijuana, and Tecate, and the extreme minimum temperature values in Mexicali and Ensenada. These models were used to estimate future probabilities over the next 100 years (2015-2110) for different time periods, and they were compared with changes in the extreme (P90th and P10th) percentiles of maximum and minimum temperature scenarios for a set of six general circulation models under low (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) radiative forcings. By the end of the twenty-first century, the scenarios of the changes in extreme maximum summer temperature are of the same order in both the statistical model and the high radiative scenario (increases of 4-5 °C). The low radiative scenario is more conservative (increases of 2-3 °C). The winter scenario shows that minimum temperatures could be less severe; the temperature increases suggested by the probabilistic model are greater than those projected for the end of the century by the set of global models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The likely impacts on the region are discussed.

Spatial and temporal variation of correlation between the Arctic total ozone and atmospheric temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Fuxiang; Ren, suling; Han, Shuangshuang; Zheng, xiangdong; Deng, xuejiao

2017-04-01

Daily total ozone and atmospheric temperature profile data in 2015 from the AIRS are used to investigate the spatial and temporal variation of the correlation between the Arctic atmospheric ozone and temperature. In the study, 11 lays atmospheric temperature profiles from the troposphere to the stratosphere are investigated. These layer heights are 20, 50, 70, 100, 200, 250, 300, 400, 500, 600 and 700 hPa respectively. The results show that a significant seasonal split exists in the correlation between the Arctic ozone and atmospheric temperature. Figure 1 shows the spatial and temporal variation of the coefficient between the atmospheric ozone and temperature at 50hPa. It can be seen from the figure that an obvious spatiotemporal difference exists in the correlation between the Arctic total ozone and atmospheric temperature in the lower stratosphere. First, the seasonal difference is very remarkable, which is shown as a significant positive correlation in most regions during winter and summer, while no correlation in the majority of regions occurs during spring and autumn, with a weak positive or negative correlation in a small number regions. Second, the spatial differences are also very obvious. The summer maximum correlation coefficient occurs in the Barents Sea and other locations at 0.8 and above, while the winter maximum occurs in the Baffin Bay area at 0.6 to 0.8. However, in a small number of regions, such as the land to the west of the Bering Strait in winter and the Arctic Ocean core area in summer, the correlation coefficients were unable to pass the significance test to show no correlation. At the same time, in spring and autumn, a positive correlation only occurs over a few low-latitude land areas, while over other Arctic areas, weak negative correlation exists. The differences in horizontal position are clearly related to the land-sea distribution, underlying surface characteristics, glacial melting, and other factors. In the troposphere, the ozone and temperature have a strong negative correlation in spring and autumn, while presenting a weak negative correlation or no correlation in winter and summer. Figure 2 shows the spatial and temporal variation of the correlation coefficient between the atmospheric ozone and temperature at 500hPa. From figure 2, it can be seen that in the Arctic troposphere, the atmospheric ozone and tropospheric temperature mainly have a negative correlation. In winter and summer, a weak negative correlation is shown overall, but more than a third of the regions show no correlation. In spring, the negative correlation is the strongest between the ozone and temperature. Especially in Greenland - Queen Elizabeth Islands and southern New Siberian Islands, the correlation is the highest, with a correlation coefficient of -0.9 and above, followed by a negative correlation in autumn. Except for a small number of low-latitude scattered regions with weak correlation, the correlation coefficients of most regions are ranged between -0.5 and -0.7. At 300 hPa near the tropopause, the horizontal distribution and seasonal change of the correlation between the Arctic total ozone and atmospheric temperature are as shown in Fig. 3.At the height near the Arctic tropopause, the atmospheric ozone mainly has no correlation to temperature, especially in winter and summer, when no correlation exists in the majority of regions, while weak positive or negative correlation occurs in a small number of areas. In the majority of regions during spring, a weak negative correlation is shown, while no correlation appears in Western Greenland - Queen Elizabeth Islands. In autumn, most regions show no correlation, while weak negative correlation is presented in Eastern Greenland, Norwegian Sea - Barents Sea, and other locations. From figure 1-3, we can see a significant difference exists from the common law of positive correlation in the lower stratosphere and negative correlation in the troposphere at mid-low latitudes. The Arctic atmospheric ozone has a relation with temperature, showing significant spatial and temporal variation characteristics. In the stratosphere, winter and summer atmospheric temperatures mainly have a positive correlation to ozone. The summer maximum occurs in the Barents Sea to achieve 0.8 and above, while the winter maximum is 0.6 to 0.8 in the Baffin Bay area. In the troposphere, the autumn and spring atmospheric temperatures mainly have a negative correlation to the ozone. The spring correlation coefficient in Greenland to the Queen Elizabeth Islands reaches up to -0.9 and above, while the autumn value is -0.5 to -0.7. At about 300 hPa, the tropopause value is reduced to 0, and further decreased in the troposphere, to show a strong negative correlation. Based on the comprehensive analysis of various influence factors, the possible action mechanism of the spatiotemporal variation pattern of the correlation between the Arctic atmospheric ozone and temperature is discussed based on the seasonal differences of various influence factors. The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the correlation between the Arctic atmospheric ozone and temperature are determined by the seasonal variation of various influencing factors of the Arctic atmospheric ozone and temperature. These factors include the atmospheric heating effect from the ozone matching with the Arctic sunshine conditions, the influence of dynamic delivery on the ozone and heat, the impact of underlying-surface glacial melting on atmospheric radiation and heat budget, and so on. At different heights in each season, the different effects from all kinds of factors on the ozone and temperature determine the spatiotemporal variation of the correlation between the ozone and temperature.

The Effects of Data Gaps on the Calculated Monthly Mean Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in the Continental United States: A Spatial and Temporal Study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stooksbury, David E.; Idso, Craig D.; Hubbard, Kenneth G.

1999-05-01

Gaps in otherwise regularly scheduled observations are often referred to as missing data. This paper explores the spatial and temporal impacts that data gaps in the recorded daily maximum and minimum temperatures have on the calculated monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures. For this analysis 138 climate stations from the United States Historical Climatology Network Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data set were selected. The selected stations had no missing maximum or minimum temperature values during the period 1951-80. The monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures were calculated for each station for each month. For each month 1-10 consecutive days of data from each station were randomly removed. This was performed 30 times for each simulated gap period. The spatial and temporal impact of the 1-10-day data gaps were compared. The influence of data gaps is most pronounced in the continental regions during the winter and least pronounced in the southeast during the summer. In the north central plains, 10-day data gaps during January produce a standard deviation value greater than 2°C about the `true' mean. In the southeast, 10-day data gaps in July produce a standard deviation value less than 0.5°C about the mean. The results of this study will be of value in climate variability and climate trend research as well as climate assessment and impact studies.

Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention.

PubMed

Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Diaz, Julio; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lauwaet, Dirk; De Ridder, Koen; Linares, Cristina; Carmona, Rocio; Ortiz, Cristina; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Aerts, Raf; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Dunbar, Maria Bekker-Nielsen

2018-02-01

Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence. We modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986-2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026-2045) and one in the far future (2081-2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009-2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature. During the sample period 2009-2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26°C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95% CI: 3.8-23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1deaths/year CI 95%: 6.78-41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38deaths/year CI 95%: 17.00-105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Analytical Assessment of the Relationship between 100MWp Large-scale Grid-connected Photovoltaic Plant Performance and Meteorological Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Jie; Zhu, Qiaoming; Cao, Shijie; You, Yang

2017-05-01

This paper helps in study of the relationship between the photovoltaic power generation of large scale “fishing and PV complementary” grid-tied photovoltaic system and meteorological parameters, with multi-time scale power data from the photovoltaic power station and meteorological data over the same period of a whole year. The result indicates that, the PV power generation has the most significant correlation with global solar irradiation, followed by diurnal temperature range, sunshine hours, daily maximum temperature and daily average temperature. In different months, the maximum monthly average power generation appears in August, which related to the more global solar irradiation and longer sunshine hours in this month. However, the maximum daily average power generation appears in October, this is due to the drop in temperature brings about the improvement of the efficiency of PV panels. Through the contrast of monthly average performance ratio (PR) and monthly average temperature, it is shown that, the larger values of monthly average PR appears in April and October, while it is smaller in summer with higher temperature. The results concluded that temperature has a great influence on the performance ratio of large scale grid-tied PV power system, and it is important to adopt effective measures to decrease the temperature of PV plant properly.

An analysis of influential factors on outdoor thermal comfort in summer.

PubMed

Yin, JiFu; Zheng, YouFei; Wu, RongJun; Tan, JianGuo; Ye, DianXiu; Wang, Wei

2012-09-01

A variety of research has linked high temperature to outdoor thermal comfort in summer, but it remains unclear how outdoor meteorological environments influence people's thermal sensation in subtropical monsoon climate areas, especially in China. In order to explain the process, and to better understand the related influential factors, we conducted an extensive survey of thermally comfortable conditions in open outdoor spaces. The goal of this study was to gain an insight into the subjects' perspectives on weather variables and comfort levels, and determine the factors responsible for the varying human thermal comfort response in summer. These perceptions were then compared to actual ambient conditions. The database consists of surveys rated by 205 students trained from 6:00 am to 8:00 pm outdoors from 21 to 25 August 2009, at Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, China. The multiple regression approach and simple factor analysis of variance were used to investigate the relationships between thermal comfort and meteorological environment, taking into consideration individual mood, gender, level of regular exercise, and previous environmental experiences. It was found that males and females have similar perceptions of maximum temperature; in the most comfortable environment, mood appears to have a significant influence on thermal comfort, but the influence of mood diminishes as the meteorological environment becomes increasingly uncomfortable. In addition, the study confirms the strong relationship between thermal comfort and microclimatic conditions, including solar radiation, atmospheric pressure, maximum temperature, wind speed and relative humidity, ranked by importance. There are also strong effects of illness, clothing and exercise, all of which influence thermal comfort. We also find that their former place of residence influences people's thermal comfort substantially by setting expectations. Finally, some relationships between thermal perception and amount of exercise, thermal experience, mood, clothing, illness and microclimate, etc., are established. Our findings also shed light on how to resist or adapt to outdoor hyperthermic conditions during summer in subtropical monsoon climate areas.

An analysis of influential factors on outdoor thermal comfort in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, JiFu; Zheng, YouFei; Wu, RongJun; Tan, JianGuo; Ye, DianXiu; Wang, Wei

2012-09-01

A variety of research has linked high temperature to outdoor thermal comfort in summer, but it remains unclear how outdoor meteorological environments influence people's thermal sensation in subtropical monsoon climate areas, especially in China. In order to explain the process, and to better understand the related influential factors, we conducted an extensive survey of thermally comfortable conditions in open outdoor spaces. The goal of this study was to gain an insight into the subjects' perspectives on weather variables and comfort levels, and determine the factors responsible for the varying human thermal comfort response in summer. These perceptions were then compared to actual ambient conditions. The database consists of surveys rated by 205 students trained from 6:00 am to 8:00 pm outdoors from 21 to 25 August 2009, at Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, China. The multiple regression approach and simple factor analysis of variance were used to investigate the relationships between thermal comfort and meteorological environment, taking into consideration individual mood, gender, level of regular exercise, and previous environmental experiences. It was found that males and females have similar perceptions of maximum temperature; in the most comfortable environment, mood appears to have a significant influence on thermal comfort, but the influence of mood diminishes as the meteorological environment becomes increasingly uncomfortable. In addition, the study confirms the strong relationship between thermal comfort and microclimatic conditions, including solar radiation, atmospheric pressure, maximum temperature, wind speed and relative humidity, ranked by importance. There are also strong effects of illness, clothing and exercise, all of which influence thermal comfort. We also find that their former place of residence influences people's thermal comfort substantially by setting expectations. Finally, some relationships between thermal perception and amount of exercise, thermal experience, mood, clothing, illness and microclimate, etc., are established. Our findings also shed light on how to resist or adapt to outdoor hyperthermic conditions during summer in subtropical monsoon climate areas.

Operations and Maintenance April Newsletter | Poster

Cancer.gov

Summertime is coming and with it warmer temperatures, so get out there and enjoy it. The Operations and Maintenance (O&M) department has talented individuals dedicated to maintaining your air conditioning equipment for maximum efficiency. Our staff are always ready to address issues even in the dog days of summer. Please be assured that we are working diligently to keep you

Vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of selected southwestern crops to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

By the middle of the 21st Century, maximum annual temperatures in the Southwest (SW) are expected to increase by 2-4 C with the highest increases occurring in the summer months of Jun-Aug. While annual precipitation may remain similar to 1971-2000 values, Mar-May precipitation in the SW may decline ...

Coldwater fish in wadeable streams [Chapter 8

Treesearch

Jason B. Dunham; Amanda E. Rosenberger; Russell F. Thurow; C. Andrew Dolloff; Philip J. Howell

2009-01-01

Small, wadeable streams comprise the majority of habitats available to fishes in fluvial networks. Wadeable streams are generally less than 1 m deep, and fish can be sampled without the use of water craft. Cold waters are defined as having mean 7-d summer maximum water temperatures of less than 20°C and providing habitat for coldwater fishes.

Coherent variability between seasonal temperatures and rainfalls in the Iberian Peninsula, 1951-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.

2018-02-01

In this work trends of seasonal mean of daily minimum (TN), maximum (TX), mean (TM) temperatures, daily range of temperature (DTR), and total seasonal rainfall (R) in 35 Iberian stations since mid-twentieth century are studied. The interest is focused on the relationships between temperature variables and rainfall, taking into account the correlation coefficients between R and the temperature variables. The negative link between rainfall and temperatures is detected in the four seasons of the year, except in western stations in winter for TN and TM, and in autumn for TN (for this variable a certain annual cycle is detected, with predominance of positive correlation in winter, negative in spring and summer, and the autumn as transition season). The role of cloud cover is confirmed in those stations with total cloud cover data. Using an average peninsular series, the relationship between nighttime temperature and rainfall related to long wave radiation is confirmed for the four seasons of the year, although in spring and summer has minor importance than in the cold half year. The relationships between R, TN, and TX are in general terms stable after a moving correlation analysis, although the negative correlation between TX and R seems be weakened in spring and autumn and reinforced in summer. The role of convective precipitation in autumn is discussed. The analysis of combined extreme indices in four representative stations shows an increase of warm and dry days, and a decrease of cold and wet days.

Intra- and interannual dynamics of dinoflagellate bloom species in the James River, an urban tidal estuary in Virginia, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echevarria, M. A.; Mulholland, M. R.; Filippino, K.; Egerton, T.

2016-02-01

Algal blooms occur throughout the year in the tidal tributaries of Chesapeake Bay. The James River is the largest river in Virginia and third largest tributary of the Bay. Of the nearly 1500 species found in the estuary, two dinoflagellates; Heterocapsa triquetra and Cochlodinium polykrikoides have historically formed large seasonal algal blooms in spring and summer respectively, lasting several weeks to months annually. Additionally, the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium monilatum has emerged as an annual late summer bloom producer with increasing abundance in the region over the last nine years. These blooms have occurred in the lower James River, including meso- and polyhaline waters. Presented here are comparisons of the temporal and spatial extent and magnitude of these three dinoflagellate species over a two-year period (2014-2015). In 2014 dinoflagellate abundance was low compared to prior years. In contrast, massive spring and summer blooms occurred in 2015 with extended durations. In 2015, H. triquetra reached a maximum concentration of >84,000 cells/ml, with densities >103 cells/mL observed over a six week period, compared to no visible bloom the year before and a maximum of only 6200 cells/ml. Similarly in 2015, C. polykrikoides reached maximum cell densities of >41,000 cells/ml, with densities >103 cells/mL observed over a seven week period, compared to a maximum the year before of <11,000 cells/ml. A. monilatum reached a maximum of >7,500 cells/ml over a three week period in August 2015, with no bloom recorded in 2014. Multiple environmental parameters likely contributed to the interannual variability in bloom formation and duration. Temperature appeared to be a significant factor, with cooler than average surface water during the summer of 2014. In addition, the effect of prevailing wind patterns, precipitation, salinity, nutrient concentrations and sediment re-suspension were examined.

Exospheric temperature and composition from satellite beacon measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Titheridge, J. E.

1974-01-01

Routine measurements of the slab thickness of the ionosphere, from 1965 to 1971, are used to infer the changes in neutral temperature and ion composition at a mean latitude of 40 S. Values of neutral temperature at solar maximum are 5 to 10% above Northern Hemisphere backscatter results. The diurnal and seasonal changes agree closely with satellite drag and backscatter measurements, except that the maximum temperature occurs after sunset in winter. Winter night-time values of the O(+)/H(+) transition height were 500 km in 1965-1966, 800 km in 1968-1969, and 700 km in 1971. Changes in the transition height lag about six months behind the changes in solar flux. Diurnal variations have a minimum just before sunrise and a maximum 1 to 3 hr after noon. On winter nights the transition height descends to the level set by chemical equilibrium. On summer nights the transition height is always above this level, giving a continual production of H(+) which serves as an additional source for maintaining the night-time ionosphere in the winter hemisphere.

A 100 000-year record of annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature for northwestern Australia based on a pollen record obtained offshore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Kaars, Sander; de Deckker, Patrick; Gingele, Franz X.

2006-12-01

Pollen recovered from core tops of deep-sea cores from offshore northwestern Western Australia were used to build climatic transfer functions applied to sediment samples from major rivers bordering the ocean in the same region and a deep-sea core offshore Northwest Cape. Results show for the last 100 000 years, with a gap in the record spanning the 64 000 to 46 000 years interval, that from about 100 000 to 82 000 yr BP, climatic conditions represented by rainfall, temperature and number of humid months, were significantly higher than today's values. For the entire record, the coldest period occurred about 43 000 to 39 000 yr BP but it was wetter than today, whereas the Last Glacial Maximum saw a significant reduction in summer rainfall, interpreted as a result of the absence of monsoonal activity in the region. The Holocene can be divided into two distinct phases: one peaking around 6000 cal. yr BP with highest rainfall and summer temperatures; the second one commencing at 5000 cal. yr BP and showing a progressive decrease in summer rainfall in contrast to an increase in winter rainfall, paralleled by a progressive decrease in temperatures. Copyright

The effect of seasons on behaviour during milking in buffaloes ( Bos bubalis)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangwar, P. C.

1982-06-01

An investigation on behaviour during milking involving 200 buffaloes was carried out to study the effect of climate on milking behaviour for a period of four years. The results obtained were: (1) In extremely docile animals (temperament score I) the mean distribution was least (33.5) in hot-dry summer as compared to winter (39.2) and hot-humid summer. (2) The number of buffaloes milked after oxytocin injections was maximum (11.1%) during the hot-dry summer against other seasons for the temperament score I over temperament scores III and IV, where all buffaloes were milked with oxytocin injections. (3) The mean flow rate was least in hot-dry summer in each temperament score. (4) Milking time was higher in all the temperament scored buffaloes during the hot-dry summer than during the other seasons. It is concluded that as environmental temperature increases, there occurs an increase in thermal stress, the milking behaviour changes and animals become more hostile and excited which leads to a decrease in milk production.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE PAGES

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; ...

2017-11-20

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbas, Farhat; Rehman, Iqra; Adrees, Muhammad; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Saleem, Farhan; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Salik, Muhammad Raza

2018-02-01

This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region's economy.

Changes in atmospheric circulation between solar maximum and minimum conditions in winter and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae Nyung

2008-10-01

Statistically significant climate responses to the solar variability are found in Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and in the tropical circulation. This study is based on the statistical analysis of numerical simulations with ModelE version of the chemistry coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The low frequency large scale variability of the winter and summer circulation is described by the NAM, the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of geopotential heights. The newly defined seasonal annular modes and its dynamical significance in the stratosphere and troposphere in the GISS ModelE is shown and compared with those in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both the model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GISS GCM, the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant. The difference of the downward propagation of NAM between solar maximum and solar minimum is shown with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For the winter NAM, a much greater fraction of stratospheric circulation perturbations penetrate to the surface in solar maximum conditions than in minimum conditions. This difference is more striking when the zonal wind direction in the tropics is from the west: when equatorial 50 hPa winds are from the west, no stratospheric signals reach the surface under solar minimum conditions, while over 50 percent reach the surface under solar maximum conditions. This work also studies the response of the tropical circulation to the solar forcing in combination with different atmospheric compositions and with different ocean modules. Four model experiments have been designed to investigate the role of solar forcing in the tropical circulation: one with the present day (PD) greenhouse gases and aerosol conditions, one with the preindustrial (PI) conditions, one with the doubled minimum solar forcing, and finally one with the hybrid-isopycnic ocean model (HYCOM). The response patterns in the tropical humidity and in the vertical motion due to solar forcing are season dependent and spatially heterogeneous. The tropical humidity response from the model experiments are compared with the corresponding differences obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with all years and with non-ENSO years. Both the model and the reanalysis consistently show that the specific humidity is significantly greater in the convective region in solar maximum compared to solar minimum for January and July. The column integrated humidity in all the model experiments with different composition, different solar forcing, and different ocean module, increased with solar forcing in the tropical band over the Atlantic sector in both seasons. The model's humidity response pattern is generally consistent with the paleoclimate records indicating increased precipitation near the equator that decreases at subtropical to middle latitudes with increased solar output. The differences in the zonally averaged vertical velocities indicate that the ascending branch of the Hadley cell is enhanced and shifted northward, and that the descending branch is weakened and shifted northward in the solar MAX simulation in January. The downward branch of the Hadley cell is strengthened in MAX in July. A possible link of climate response in midlatitudes to solar forcing is also presented by showing changes in zonal mean wind, changes in temperature gradient, and changes in E-P flux.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosling, Simon N.; McGregor, Glenn R.; Páldy, Anna

2007-08-01

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature ( T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature-mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature-mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

Causes and Consequences of Past and Projected Scandinavian Summer Temperatures, 500–2100 AD

PubMed Central

Büntgen, Ulf; Raible, Christoph C.; Frank, David; Helama, Samuli; Cunningham, Laura; Hofer, Dominik; Nievergelt, Daniel; Verstege, Anne; Timonen, Mauri; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Esper, Jan

2011-01-01

Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years. PMID:21966436

Upper Stratospheric Temperature Climatology Derived from SAGE II Observations: Preliminary Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, P.-H.; Cunnold, D. M.; Wang, H. J.; Chu, W. P.; Thomason, L. W.

2002-01-01

This study shows that the temperature information in the upper stratosphere can be derived from the SAGE II 385-mn observations. The preliminary results indicate that the zonal mean temperature increases with altitude below 50 km and decreases above 50 km. At 50 km, a regional maximum of 263 K is located in the tropics, and a minimum of 261 K occurs in the subtropics in both hemispheres. The derived long-term temperature changes from 1985 to 1997 reveal a statistically significant negative trend of -2 to -2.5 K/decade in the tropical upper stratosphere and about -2 K/decade in the subtropics near the stratopause. At latitudes poleward of 50, the results show a statistically significant positive trend of about 1 K/decade in the upper stratosphere. The preliminary results also show large annual temperature oscillations in the extratropics with a maximum amplitude of approx. 8 K located at about 44 km near 50 in both hemispheres during local summer. In addition, the semiannual oscillation is found to be a maximum in the tropics with a peak amplitude of approx. 3.3 K located at about 42 km during the equinox.

Thermal characteristics of soil and water during summer at King Sejong Station, King George Island, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, H. S.; Lee, J. Y.; Yoon, H.

2016-12-01

Soil temperatures, water temperatures, and weather parameters were monitored at a variety of locations in the vicinity of King Sejong station, King George Island, Antarctica, during summer 2010-2011. Thermal characteristics of soil and water were analysed using time-series analyses, apparent thermal diffusivity (ATD), and active layer thickness. The temperatures of pond water and nearby seawater showed the distinctive diurnal variations and correlated strongly with solar radiation (r = 0.411-0.797). Soil temperature (0.1-0.3 m depth) also showed diurnal fluctuations that decreased with depth and were directly linked to air temperature (r = 0.513-0.783) rather than to solar radiation; correlation decreased with depth and the time lag in the response increased by 2-3 hours per 0.1 m of soil depth. Owing to the lack of snow cover, summertime soil temperature was not decoupled from air temperature. Estimated ATD was between 0.022 and 29.209 mm2/sec, showed temporal and spatial variations, and correlated strongly with soil moisture content. The maximum estimated active layer thickness in the study area was a 41-70 cm, which is consistent with values reported in the previous work.

Recurrence of July Joklhlaup Flooding in the Mendenhall Glacier Watershed is Driven by Record Breaking Precipitation, Regional Warming, and the Collapse of a Tributary Glacier near Juneau, AK USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Connor, C. L.; Hood, E. W.; Hekkers, M.; Kugler, N.

2012-12-01

During the summer of 2012, the U.S. Weather Service Station in Juneau, AK (located at 24 m asl and near the 1769 Little Ice Age terminal moraine of the Mendenhall Glacier), recorded the lowest daily average maximum May to July temperature of 12.2oC (54.9o F), [2.4oC (-4.4o F) below normal] over 69 years of record. This year's summer temperature anomalies contrast with an overall Juneau trend of warming 1.6oC, (2.88oF) since 1943. The rising temperature parallels glacier ice reduction by thinning at a rate of >2m/yr and ice terminus retreat of 3.86 km between 1909 and 2011. Mendenhall Lake which began forming after 1930 has increased from 3.9 to 4.2 km2 in area and 0.05-0.09 km3 in volume between 2000 and 2011 as the glacier retreated. Since 2000, maximum lake depth has increased from 70 to 90m at the lakefront terminus. Northeast and 3.6 km above the glacier terminus, the Suicide Basin Ice Fall no longer flows into Mendenhall glacier, which has created a large ice-marginal basin that can hold a substantial volume of water. Once rare, mid-summer flooding has recently been caused by abrupt subglacial releases of rain water stored in this tributary cirque basin. Large water volumes are lifting and flowing under the surviving main trunk of the Mendenhall Glacier. These glacial outburst floods have raised Mendenhall Lake levels and increased discharge into the outlet Mendenhall River. On July 19-22, 2011 an estimated subglacial discharge of 37,000,000 m3 (1,306,642,650 ft3) raised proglacial Mendenhall Lake level by 1.67m (5.5 ft) and increased discharge on the Mendenhall River from 79 to 453 m3/s (2,800-16,000 f3/s). Temperature sensor strings on buoys in the lake have captured lake bottom (-49m) temperature drops of ~ 1oC as cold waves of subglacially released water move at depth from the glacier base into the river. Lake temperature data from summer 2012 sensors will be presented at this meeting. During summer 2012, a repeat joklhlaup event occurred July 3-6, rising lake level from 1.37m to 2.54m (4.5-8.35 feet), just below flood stage at 2.74m (9 ft) and increased river discharge from 58 to 259 m3/sec (1,900 to 9,150 ft3/s). Over the 46 years of record of Mendenhall River hydrologic monitoring by the USGS Water Resources Division, only 5 events of mid-summer elevated water stages have been recorded with two of them in 2011 and 2012.

Modeling of Future Changes in Seasonal Snowpack and Impacts on Summer Low Flows in Alpine Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenicek, Michal; Seibert, Jan; Staudinger, Maria

2018-01-01

It is expected that an increasing proportion of the precipitation will fall as rain in alpine catchments in the future. Consequently, snow storage is expected to decrease, which, together with changes in snowmelt rates and timing, might cause reductions in spring and summer low flows. The objectives of this study were (1) to simulate the effect of changing snow storage on low flows during the warm seasons and (2) to relate drought sensitivity to the simulated snow storage changes at different elevations. The Swiss Climate Change Scenarios 2011 data set was used to derive future changes in air temperature and precipitation. A typical bucket-type catchment model, HBV-light, was applied to 14 mountain catchments in Switzerland to simulate streamflow and snow in the reference period and three future periods. The largest relative decrease in annual maximum SWE was simulated for elevations below 2,200 m a.s.l. (60-75% for the period 2070-2099) and the snowmelt season shifted by up to 4 weeks earlier. The relative decrease in spring and summer minimum runoff that was caused by the relative decrease in maximum SWE (i.e., elasticity), reached 40-90% in most of catchments for the reference period and decreased for the future periods. This decreasing elasticity indicated that the effect of snow on summer low flows is reduced in the future. The fraction of snowmelt runoff in summer decreased by more than 50% at the highest elevations and almost disappeared at the lowest elevations. This might have large implications on water availability during the summer.

Thermal ecology of the Australian agamid Pogona barbata.

PubMed

Schäuble, Chloe S; Grigg, Gordon C

1998-05-01

This study compares the thermal ecology of male bearded dragon lizards (Pogona barbata) from south-east Queensland across two seasons: summer (1994-1995) and autumn (1995). Seasonal patterns of body temperature (T b ) were explored in terms of changes in the physical properties of the thermal environment and thermoregulatory effort. To quantify thermoregulatory effort, we compared behavioral and physiological variables recorded for observed lizards with those estimated for a thermoconforming lizard. The study lizards' field T b s varied seasonally (summer: grand daily mean (GDM) 34.6 ± 0.6°C, autumn: GDM 27.5 ± 0.3°C) as did maximum and minimum available operative temperatures (summer: GDM T max 42.1 ± 1.7°C, T min 32.2 ± 1.0°C, autumn: GDM T max 31.7 ± 1.2°C, T min 26.4 ± 0.5°C). Interestingly, the range of temperatures that lizards selected in a gradient (selected range) did not change seasonally. However, P. barbata thermoregulated more extensively and more accurately in summer than in autumn; lizards generally displayed behaviors affecting heat load nonrandomly in summer and randomly in autumn, leading to the GDM of the mean deviations of lizards' field T b s from their selected ranges being only 2.1 ± 0.5°C in summer, compared to 4.4 ± 0.5°C in autumn. This seasonal difference was not a consequence of different heat availability in the two seasons, because the seasonally available ranges of operative temperatures rarely precluded lizards from attaining field T b s within their selected range, should that have been the goal. Rather, thermal microhabitat distribution and social behavior appear to have had an important influence on seasonal levels of thermoregulatory effort.

Effect of season and ambient temperature on outcome of guaiac-based faecal occult blood tests performed for colorectal cancer screening.

PubMed

Hunter, J P; Saratzis, A; Froggatt, P; Harmston, C

2012-09-01

Guaiac-based faecal occult blood tests (gFOBTs) are used in the colorectal cancer screening programme. Recent data suggested that the immunological faecal occult blood test illustrated a variation in positivity according to season and ambient temperature. Our aim was to assess the effect of season and ambient temperature on the positivity rates of the gFOBT during pilot screening for colorectal cancer. Data from the first year of round 1 of the pilot screening programme in Coventry and Warwickshire were analysed. Patients with positive and negative gFOBT samples were included. Patients with spoilt samples or incomplete data were excluded. Of the total of 59513 patients, 30311 were men and 29202 women. Mean age was 56 years. Daily temperature data were provided by the meteorological office. Median exposure of the gFOBT test card was 6 days (range 1-17). Median daily maximum temperature was 14°C. Spring and summer illustrated significantly decreased positivity rates compared with autumn and winter (Pearson's chi-squared test, P<0.001). Mean daily maximum temperature for the test card exposure showed no significant difference in positivity rates (P=0.53). Subgroup analysis revealed a significant reduction in positive samples in the >25°C subgroup (P=0.045). There is a seasonal variation in positivity rates of gFOBTs with increased positivity in spring and summer months. There is no difference in positivity rates in relation to ambient temperature except in subgroup analysis where there is a significant reduction in positivity rates above 25°C. © 2011 The Authors. Colorectal Disease © 2011 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

Photosynthetic temperature adaptation of Pinus cembra within the timberline ecotone of the Central Austrian Alps.

PubMed

Wieser, Gerhard; Oberhuber, Walter; Walder, Lisa; Spieler, Daniela; Gruber, Andreas

2010-04-01

Temperature is suggested to determine the upper limit of tree life. Therefore, future climate warming may be of importance for tree distribution within the European Alps, where low temperatures limit carbon metabolism.We focused on the effects of air and soil temperature on net photosynthesis (P(n)) of Pinus cembra an evergreen climax species of the timberline ecotone of the Central Austrian Alps. Light response and temperature response curves were estimated along an altitudinal gradient ranging from the forest limit up to the krummholz limit in both summer and fall.In general, P(n) was significantly lower in fall as compared to summer. Nevertheless, independent from season mean P(n) values tended to increase with elevation and were positively correlated with root zone temperatures. The specific leaf area by contrast declined with increasing elevation. Furthermore, the temperature optimum of net photosynthesis declined with increasing elevation and was positively correlated with the mean maximum air temperature of the 10 days prior the date of measurement.Thus, our findings appear to reflect a long-term adaptation of the photosynthetic apparatus of Pinus cembra to the general temperature conditions with respect to elevation combined with a short term acclimation to the prevailing temperature regime.

Operations and Maintenance April Newsletter | Poster

Cancer.gov

Summertime is coming and with it warmer temperatures, so get out there and enjoy it. The Operations and Maintenance (O&M) department has talented individuals dedicated to maintaining your air conditioning equipment for maximum efficiency. Our staff are always ready to address issues even in the dog days of summer. Please be assured that we are working diligently to keep you comfortable.

Spatial and temporal variations in high turbidity surface water off the Thule region, northwestern Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohashi, Yoshihiko; Iida, Takahiro; Sugiyama, Shin; Aoki, Shigeru

2016-09-01

Glacial meltwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet and ice caps forms high turbidity water in the proglacial ocean off the Greenland coast. Although the timing and magnitude of high turbidity water export affect the coastal marine environment, for example, through impacts on biological productivity, little is known about the characteristics of this high turbidity water. In this paper, we therefore report on the spatial and temporal variations in high turbidity water off the Thule region in northwestern Greenland, based on remote sensing reflectance data at a wavelength of 555 nm (Rrs555). The high turbidity area, identified on the basis of high reflectivity (Rrs555 ≥ 0.0070 sr-1), was generally distributed near the coast, where many outlet glaciers terminate in the ocean and on land. The extent of the high turbidity area exhibited substantial seasonal and interannual variability, and its annual maximum extent was significantly correlated with summer air temperature. Assuming a linear relationship between the high turbidity area and summer temperature, annual maximum extent increases under the influence of increasing glacial meltwater discharge, as can be inferred from present and predicted future warming trends.

Seasonal variation of sudden infant death syndrome in Hawaii.

PubMed

Mage, David T

2004-11-01

To test whether the sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) rate displays the universal winter maximum and summer minimum in Hawaii where there is no appreciable seasonal variation of temperature. The null hypothesis is tested that there is no seasonal variation of necropsied SIDS in Hawaii. The numbers of live births and SIDS cases by month for the years 1979 to 2002 were collected and the monthly SIDS distribution is predicted based on the age at death distribution. The state of Hawaii, located in the midst of the Pacific Ocean, has a semi-tropical climate with temperatures fluctuating diurnally as 25 +/- 5 degrees C throughout the year. Therefore homes are unheated and infants are not excessively swaddled. The Hawaii State Department of Health maintains vital statistics of all infant births and deaths. The results reject the null hypothesis of no seasonal variation of SIDS (p = 0.026). An explanation for the seasonal effect of the winter maximum and summer minimum for Hawaiian SIDS is that it arises from the cycle of the school session and summer vacation periods that represent variable intensity of a possible viral infection vector. SIDS rates in both Hawaii and the United States increase with parity, also indicating a possible role of school age siblings as carriers. The winter peak of the SIDS in Hawaii is support for the hypothesis that a low grade viral infection, insufficient by itself to be a visible cause of death at necropsy, may be implicated as contributing to SIDS in vulnerable infants.

Secular Trend of Surface Temperature at an Elevated Observatory in the Pyrenees.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bücher, A.; Dessens, J.

1991-08-01

Surface temperature was measured at the Pic du Midi de Bigorre, 2862 m MSL, from the foundation of the Observatory in 1878 until the closing of the meteorological station in 1984. After testing the homogeneity of the series with the annual mean temperatures in western Europe and in southwestern France, the period 1882-1970 was retained for trend analysis.The mean annual temperature increased 0.83°C during the 89-yr period. This increase is the sum of a very significant increase in the daily minimum temperature (+ 2.11°C) and a decrease in the maximum temperature ( 0.45°C). In consequence, the most dramatic change in the temperature regime was the difference between maximum and minimum; this decreased from 8.05°C in 1882 to 5.49°C in 1970. A mean increase is observed in all seasons, but, as for western Europe, it is stronger in spring and fall than in winter and summer.Analysis of cloudiness data for the same period shows a 15% increase in annual mean cloudiness and also significant year-to-year correlations between cloudiness and the maximum and minimum temperature. In consequence, the change in the temperature regime observed at the Pic du Midi since the end of last century is most probably the result of a climatic change involving an increase in cloud cover and, maybe, an increasing greenhouse effect.

Photothermal performance of an amorphous silicon photovoltaic panel integrated in a membrane structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Bing; Hu, Jianhui; Chen, Wujun; Qiu, Zhenyu; Zhou, Jinyu; Qu, Yegao; Ge, Binbin

2016-10-01

The amorphous silicon photovoltaic (a-Si PV) cells are widely used for electricity generation from solar energy. When the a-Si PV cells are integrated into building roofs, such as ETFE (ethylene-tetrafouoroethylene) cushions, the temperature characteristics are indispensible for evaluating the thermal performances of a-Si PV and its constructions. This temperature value is directly dependent on the solar irradiance, wind velocity, ambient temperature and installation form. This paper concerns the field experiments and numerical modeling on the temperature characteristics and temperature value of the a-Si PV integrated in a double-layer ETFE cushion structure. To this end, an experimental model composed of two a-Si PV cells and a double-layer ETFE cushion was developed, and the corresponding experiments were carried out under two typical weather conditions (summer sunny and summer cloudy). The theoretical thermal model was developed based on an energy balance equation taking the short wave radiation, long wave radiation, convection and generated power into account. The measured solar irradiance and air temperature were used as real weather conditions for the thermal model. The corresponding differential equation of the a-Si PV temperature varying with the solar irradiance and air temperature was solved by a newly developed program based on the numerical method. The measured results show that the influence of solar irradiance on the temperature is much more significant than the other parameters, and the maximum temperature variation under sunny conditions is greater than that under cloudy conditions. The comparative study between the experimental and numerical results shows the correct predictions of the a-Si PV temperature under the sunny and cloudy conditions. The maximum difference is 3.9 °C with the acceptable reasons of the solar irradiance fluctuation and the PV thermal response time. These findings will provide useful observations and explanations for evaluating the PV and building performances in relation to temperature.

Late Quaternary paleoclimate of western Alaska inferred from fossil chironomids and its relation to vegetation histories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurek, Joshua; Cwynar, Les C.; Ager, Thomas A.; Abbott, Mark B.; Edwards, Mary E.

2009-05-01

Fossil Chironomidae assemblages (with a few Chaoboridae and Ceratopogonidae) from Zagoskin and Burial Lakes in western Alaska provide quantitative reconstructions of mean July air temperatures for periods of the late-middle Wisconsin (˜39,000-34,000 cal yr B.P.) to the present. Inferred temperatures are compared with previously analyzed pollen data from each site summarized here by indirect ordination. Paleotemperature trends reveal substantial differences in the timing of climatic warming following the late Wisconsin at each site, although chronological uncertainty exists. Zagoskin Lake shows early warming beginning at about 21,000 cal yr B.P., whereas warming at Burial Lake begins ˜4000 years later. Summer climates during the last glacial maximum (LGM) were on average ˜3.5 °C below the modern temperatures at each site. Major shifts in vegetation occurred from ˜19,000 to 10,000 cal yr B.P. at Zagoskin Lake and from ˜17,000 to 10,000 cal yr B.P. at Burial Lake. Vegetation shifts followed climatic warming, when temperatures neared modern values. Both sites provide evidence of an early postglacial thermal maximum at ˜12,300 cal yr B.P. These chironomid records, combined with other insect-based climatic reconstructions from Beringia, indicate that during the LGM: (1) greater continentality likely influenced regions adjacent to the Bering Land Bridge and (2) summer climates were, at times, not dominated by severe cold.

Observations of the summer Red Sea circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, Sarantis S.; Johns, William E.

2007-06-01

Aiming at exploring and understanding the summer circulation in the Red Sea, a cruise was conducted in the basin during the summer of 2001 involving hydrographic, meteorological, and direct current observations. The most prominent feature, characteristic of the summer circulation and exchange with the Indian Ocean, is a temperature, salinity, and oxygen minimum located around a depth of 75 m at the southern end of the basin, associated with Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water inflowing from the Gulf of Aden during the summer season as an intruding subsurface layer. Stirring and mixing with ambient waters lead to marked increases in temperature (from 16.5 to almost 33°C) and salinity (from 35.7 to more than 38 psu) in this layer by the time it reaches midbasin. The observed circulation presents a very vigorous pattern with strong variability and intense features that extend the width of the basin. A permanent cyclone, detected in the northern Red Sea, verifies previous observations and modeling studies, while in the central sector of the basin a series of very strong anticyclones were observed with maximum velocities exceeding 1 m/s. The three-layer flow pattern, representative of the summer exchange between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, is observed in the strait of Bab el Mandeb. In the southern part of the basin the layer flow is characterized by strong banking of the inflows and outflows against the coasts. Both surface and intermediate water masses involved in the summer Red Sea circulation present prominent spatial variability in their characteristics, indicating that the eddy field and mixing processes play an important role in the summer Red Sea circulation.

Soil surface temperatures reveal moderation of the urban heat island effect by trees and shrubs

PubMed Central

Edmondson, J. L.; Stott, I.; Davies, Z. G.; Gaston, K. J.; Leake, J. R.

2016-01-01

Urban areas are major contributors to air pollution and climate change, causing impacts on human health that are amplified by the microclimatological effects of buildings and grey infrastructure through the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Urban greenspaces may be important in reducing surface temperature extremes, but their effects have not been investigated at a city-wide scale. Across a mid-sized UK city we buried temperature loggers at the surface of greenspace soils at 100 sites, stratified by proximity to city centre, vegetation cover and land-use. Mean daily soil surface temperature over 11 months increased by 0.6 °C over the 5 km from the city outskirts to the centre. Trees and shrubs in non-domestic greenspace reduced mean maximum daily soil surface temperatures in the summer by 5.7 °C compared to herbaceous vegetation, but tended to maintain slightly higher temperatures in winter. Trees in domestic gardens, which tend to be smaller, were less effective at reducing summer soil surface temperatures. Our findings reveal that the UHI effects soil temperatures at a city-wide scale, and that in their moderating urban soil surface temperature extremes, trees and shrubs may help to reduce the adverse impacts of urbanization on microclimate, soil processes and human health. PMID:27641002

Soil surface temperatures reveal moderation of the urban heat island effect by trees and shrubs.

PubMed

Edmondson, J L; Stott, I; Davies, Z G; Gaston, K J; Leake, J R

2016-09-19

Urban areas are major contributors to air pollution and climate change, causing impacts on human health that are amplified by the microclimatological effects of buildings and grey infrastructure through the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Urban greenspaces may be important in reducing surface temperature extremes, but their effects have not been investigated at a city-wide scale. Across a mid-sized UK city we buried temperature loggers at the surface of greenspace soils at 100 sites, stratified by proximity to city centre, vegetation cover and land-use. Mean daily soil surface temperature over 11 months increased by 0.6 °C over the 5 km from the city outskirts to the centre. Trees and shrubs in non-domestic greenspace reduced mean maximum daily soil surface temperatures in the summer by 5.7 °C compared to herbaceous vegetation, but tended to maintain slightly higher temperatures in winter. Trees in domestic gardens, which tend to be smaller, were less effective at reducing summer soil surface temperatures. Our findings reveal that the UHI effects soil temperatures at a city-wide scale, and that in their moderating urban soil surface temperature extremes, trees and shrubs may help to reduce the adverse impacts of urbanization on microclimate, soil processes and human health.

Soil surface temperatures reveal moderation of the urban heat island effect by trees and shrubs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edmondson, J. L.; Stott, I.; Davies, Z. G.; Gaston, K. J.; Leake, J. R.

2016-09-01

Urban areas are major contributors to air pollution and climate change, causing impacts on human health that are amplified by the microclimatological effects of buildings and grey infrastructure through the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Urban greenspaces may be important in reducing surface temperature extremes, but their effects have not been investigated at a city-wide scale. Across a mid-sized UK city we buried temperature loggers at the surface of greenspace soils at 100 sites, stratified by proximity to city centre, vegetation cover and land-use. Mean daily soil surface temperature over 11 months increased by 0.6 °C over the 5 km from the city outskirts to the centre. Trees and shrubs in non-domestic greenspace reduced mean maximum daily soil surface temperatures in the summer by 5.7 °C compared to herbaceous vegetation, but tended to maintain slightly higher temperatures in winter. Trees in domestic gardens, which tend to be smaller, were less effective at reducing summer soil surface temperatures. Our findings reveal that the UHI effects soil temperatures at a city-wide scale, and that in their moderating urban soil surface temperature extremes, trees and shrubs may help to reduce the adverse impacts of urbanization on microclimate, soil processes and human health.

Evidence of increased toxic Alexandrium tamarense dinoflagellate blooms in the eastern Bering Sea in the summers of 2004 and 2005.

PubMed

Natsuike, Masafumi; Saito, Rui; Fujiwara, Amane; Matsuno, Kohei; Yamaguchi, Atsushi; Shiga, Naonobu; Hirawake, Toru; Kikuchi, Takashi; Nishino, Shigeto; Imai, Ichiro

2017-01-01

The eastern Bering Sea has a vast continental shelf, which contains various endangered marine mammals and large fishery resources. Recently, high numbers of toxic A. tamarense resting cysts were found in the bottom sediment surface of the eastern Bering Sea shelf, suggesting that the blooms have recently occurred. However, little is known about the presence of A. tamarense vegetative cells in the eastern Bering Sea. This study's goals were to detect the occurrence of A. tamarense vegetative cells on the eastern Bering Sea shelf and to find a relationship between environmental factors and their presence. Inter-annual field surveys were conducted to detect A. tamarense cells and environmental factors, such as nutrients, salinity, chlorophyll a, and water temperature, along a transect line on the eastern Bering Sea shelf during the summers of 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2013. A. tamarense vegetative cells were detected during every sampling year, and their quantities varied greatly from year to year. The maximum cell densities of A. tamarense observed during the summers of 2004 and 2005 were much higher than the Paralytic shellfish poisoning warning levels, which are greater than 100-1,000 cells L-1, in other subarctic areas. Lower quantities of the species occurred during the summers of 2009, 2012, and 2013. A significant positive correlation between A. tamarense quantity and water temperature and significant negative correlations between A. tamarense quantity and nutrient concentrations (of phosphate, silicate, and nitrite and nitrate) were detected in every sampling period. The surface- and bottom-water temperatures varied significantly from year to year, suggesting that water temperatures, which have been known to affect the cell growth and cyst germination of A. tamarense, might have affected the cells' quantities in the eastern Bering Sea each summer. Thus, an increase in the Bering Sea shelf's water temperature during the summer will increase the frequency and scale of toxic blooms and the toxin contamination of plankton feeders. This poses serious threats to humans and the marine ecosystem.

The European 2015 drought from a climatological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita, Monica; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Kingston, Daniel G.; Stagge, James H.; Laaha, Gregor; Van Lanen, Henny A. J.; Scholz, Patrick; Chelcea, Silvia M.; Haslinger, Klaus

2017-03-01

The summer drought of 2015 affected a large portion of continental Europe and was one of the most severe droughts in the region since summer 2003. The summer of 2015 was characterized by exceptionally high temperatures in many parts of central and eastern Europe, with daily maximum temperatures 2 °C higher than the seasonal mean (1971-2000) over most of western Europe, and more than 3 °C higher in the east. It was the hottest and climatologically driest summer over the 1950-2015 study period for an area stretching from the eastern Czech Republic to Ukraine. For Europe, as a whole, it is among the six hottest and driest summers since 1950. High evapotranspiration rates combined with a lack of precipitation affected soil moisture and vegetation and led to record low river flows in several major rivers, even beyond the drought-hit region. The 2015 drought developed rather rapidly over the Iberian Peninsula, France, southern Benelux and central Germany in May and reached peak intensity and spatial extent by August, affecting especially the eastern part of Europe. Over the summer period, there were four heat wave episodes, all associated with persistent blocking events. Upper-level atmospheric circulation over Europe was characterized by positive 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies flanked by a large negative anomaly to the north and west (i.e., over the central North Atlantic Ocean extending to northern Fennoscandia) and another center of positive geopotential height anomalies over Greenland and northern Canada. Simultaneously, the summer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were characterized by large negative anomalies in the central North Atlantic Ocean and large positive anomalies in the Mediterranean basin. Composite analysis shows that the western Mediterranean SST is strongly related to the occurrence of dry and hot summers over the last 66 years (especially over the eastern part of Europe). The lagged relationship between the Mediterranean SST and summer drought conditions established in this study can provide valuable skill for the prediction of drought conditions over Europe on interannual to decadal timescales.

Couplings between the seasonal cycles of surface thermodynamics and radiative fluxes in the semi-arid Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guichard, F.; Kergoat, L.; Mougin, E.; Timouk, F.; Bock, O.; Hiernaux, P.

2009-04-01

A good knowledge of surface fluxes and atmospheric low levels is central to improving our understanding of the West African monsoon. This study provides a quantitative analysis of the peculiar seasonal and diurnal cycles of surface thermodynamics and radiative fluxes encountered in Central Sahel. It is based on a multi-year dataset collected in the Malian Gourma over a sandy soil at 1.5°W-15.3°N (a site referred to as Agoufou) with an automated weather station and a sunphotometer (AERONET), complemented by observations from the AMMA field campaign. The seasonal cycle of this Tropical region is characterized by a broad maximum of temperature in May, following the first minimum of the solar zenith angle by a few weeks, when Agoufou lies within the West African Heat-Low, and a late summer maximum of equivalent potential temperature within the core of the monsoon season, around the second yearly maximum of solar zenith angle, as the temperature reaches its Summer minimum. More broadly, subtle balances between surface air temperature and moisture fields are found on a range of scales. For instance, during the monsoon, apart from August, their opposite daytime fluctuations (warming, drying) lead to an almost flat diurnal cycle of the equivalent potential temperature at the surface. This feature stands out in contrast to other more humid continental regions. Here, the strong dynamics associated with the transition from a drier hot Spring to a brief cooler wet tropical Summer climate involves very large transformations of the diurnal cycles. The Summer increase of surface net radiation, Rnet, is also strong; typically 10-day mean Rnet reaches about 5 times its Winter minimum (~30 W.m-2) in August (~150 W.m-2). A major feature revealed by observations is that this increase is mostly driven by modifications of the surface upwelling fluxes shaped by rainfall events and vegetation phenology (surface cooling and darkening), while the direct impact of atmospheric changes on the total incoming radiation is limited to shorter time scales in Summer over this Central Sahelian location. However, observations also reveal astonishing radiative signatures of the monsoon on the surface incoming radiative flux. The incoming longwave flux does not reach its maximum during the monsoon season when the atmosphere is the most cloudy and humid, but earlier, prior to the onset of rainfall, as the dry and warmer atmosphere suddenly becomes moist. This feature points to the significance of the atmospheric cooling during the monsoon season and of the aerosol amounts in Spring. It also reveals that prior to the rainfall onset, the monsoon flow plays a major role on the diurnal cycle of the low-level temperature, due to its radiative properties. Conversely, the incoming solar radiation at the surface increases slightly from late Spring to the core monsoon season even though the atmosphere becomes moister and cloudier; this again involves the high aerosol optical thickness prevailing in late Spring and early Summer against a weaker shortwave forcing by monsoon clouds. The climatological combination of thermodynamic and radiative variations taking place during the monsoon eventually leads to a positive correlation between the equivalent potential temperature and Rnet. This correlation is, in turn, broadly consistent with an overall positive soil moisture rainfall feedback at this scale. Beyond these Sahelian-specific features, and in agreement with some previous studies, strong links are found between the atmospheric humidity and the net longwave flux, LWnet at the surface all year long, even across the much lower humidity ranges encountered in this region. They point to, and locally quantify the major control of water vapour and water-related processes on the surface-atmosphere thermal coupling as measured by LWnet. Namely, they are found to be more tightly coupled (LWnet closer to 0) when the atmosphere is moister and cloudier. Observational results such as presented here provide valuable ground truth for assessing models over a continental area displaying a challenging variety of surface-atmosphere regimes throughout the year, from a desert-like to a rainy tropical-like climate during the core of the monsoon. Indeed, the mechanisms emphasized by these data do not all comply to existing conceptual schemes.

Presunrise ion temperature enhancement observed at 600 km low- and mid-latitude ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chao, C. K.; Su, S.-Y.; Yeh, H. C.

2003-02-01

The quiet-time low- and mid-latitude topside ionospheric ion temperature measured with ROCSAT-1/IPEI instrument is studied for local time, longitudinal, latitudinal, and seasonal variations for the solar maximum year of 2000. The statistical result shows two significant observations at the presunrise sector. Namely, the earliest presunrise ion temperature increase at 600 km low- and mid-latitude ionosphere always starts in the winter hemisphere for both summer and winter seasons; and the strongest presunrise ion-heating region is located in the longitudinal region between 165° and 195° during June summer and between 285° and 345° during December winter. Our simple calculation indicates that the temperature increase at the satellite altitude results from the heating process of photoelectrons that are produced at the magnetic conjugate-point where sunrise is at an earlier time. However, the mechanism to enhance the photoelectron heating at the strongest presunrise ion-heating region is still not clear, because the observed ion density and the field flow data fail to lend a clear support to the proposed heating mechanism for the current observations.

Temporal variation in the effect of heat and the role of the Italian heat prevention plan.

PubMed

de'Donato, F; Scortichini, M; De Sario, M; de Martino, A; Michelozzi, P

2018-05-08

The aim of the article is to evaluate the temporal change in the effect of heat on mortality in Italy in the last 12 years after the introduction of the national heat plan. Time series analysis. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the association between maximum apparent temperature and mortality in 23 Italian cities included in the national heat plan in four study periods (before the introduction of the heat plan and three periods after the plan was in place between 2005 and 2016). The effect (relative risks) and impact (attributable fraction [AF] and number of heat-related deaths) were estimated for mild summer temperatures (20th and 75th percentile maximum apparent temperature [Tappmax]) and extreme summer temperatures (75th and 99th percentile Tappmax) in each study period. A survey of the heat preventive measures adopted over time in the cities included in the Italian heat plan was carried out to better describe adaptation measures and response. Although heat still has an impact on mortality in Italian cities, a reduction in heat-related mortality is observed progressively over time. In terms of the impact, the heat AF related to extreme temperatures declined from 6.3% in the period 1999-2002 to 4.1% in 2013-2016. Considering the entire temperature range (20th vs 99th percentile), the total number of heat-related deaths spared over the entire study period was 1900. Considering future climate change and the health burden associated to heat waves, it is important to promote adaptation measures by showing the potential effectiveness of heat prevention plans. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mean and extreme temperatures in a warming climate: EURO CORDEX and WRF regional climate high-resolution projections for Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Lima, Daniela C. A.; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

2018-02-01

Large temperature spatio-temporal gradients are a common feature of Mediterranean climates. The Portuguese complex topography and coastlines enhances such features, and in a small region large temperature gradients with high interannual variability is detected. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate simulations (0.11° and 0.44° resolutions) are used to investigate the maximum and minimum temperature projections across the twenty-first century according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. An additional WRF simulation with even higher resolution (9 km) for RCP8.5 scenario is also examined. All simulations for the historical period (1971-2000) are evaluated against the available station observations and the EURO-CORDEX model results are ranked in order to build multi-model ensembles. In present climate models are able to reproduce the main topography/coast related temperature gradients. Although there are discernible differences between models, most present a cold bias. The multi-model ensembles improve the overall representation of the temperature. The ensembles project a significant increase of the maximum and minimum temperatures in all seasons and scenarios. Maximum increments of 8 °C in summer and autumn and between 2 and 4 °C in winter and spring are projected in RCP8.5. The temperature distributions for all models show a significant increase in the upper tails of the PDFs. In RCP8.5 more than half of the extended summer (MJJAS) has maximum temperatures exceeding the historical 90th percentile and, on average, 60 tropical nights are projected for the end of the century, whilst there are only 7 tropical nights in the historical period. Conversely, the number of cold days almost disappears. The yearly average number of heat waves increases by seven to ninefold by 2100 and the most frequent length rises from 5 to 22 days throughout the twenty-first century. 5% of the longest events will last for more than one month. The amplitude is overwhelming larger, reaching values which are not observed in the historical period. More than half of the heat waves will be stronger than the extreme heat wave of 2003 by the end of the century. The future heatwaves will also enclose larger areas, approximately 100 events in the 2071-2100 period (more than 3 per year) will cover the whole country. The RCP4.5 scenario has in general smaller magnitudes.

Exploring the association between heat and mortality in Switzerland between 1995 and 2013.

PubMed

Ragettli, Martina S; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Schindler, Christian; Röösli, Martin

2017-10-01

Designing effective public health strategies to prevent adverse health effect of hot weather is crucial in the context of global warming. In Switzerland, the 2003 heat have caused an estimated 7% increase in all-cause mortality. As a consequence, the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health developed an information campaign to raise public awareness on heat threats. For a better understanding on how hot weather affects daily mortality in Switzerland, we assessed the effect of heat on daily mortality in eight Swiss cities and population subgroups from 1995 to 2013 using different temperature metrics (daily mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) and maximum apparent temperature (Tappmax)), and aimed to evaluate variations of the heat effect after 2003 (1995-2002 versus 2004-2013). We applied conditional quasi-Poisson regression models with non-linear distributed lag functions to estimate temperature-mortality associations over all cities (1995-2013) and separately for two time periods (1995-2002, 2004-2013). Relative risks (RR) of daily mortality were estimated for increases in temperature from the median to the 98th percentile of the warm season temperature distribution. Over the whole time period, significant temperature-mortality relationships were found for all temperature indicators (RR (95% confidence interval): Tappmax: 1.12 (1.05; 1.18); Tmax: 1.15 (1.08-1.22); Tmean: 1.16 (1.09-1.23); Tmin 1.23 (1.15-1.32)). Mortality risks were higher at the beginning of the summer, especially for Tmin. In the more recent time period, we observed a non-significant reduction in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, with the age group > 74 years remaining the population at highest risk. High temperatures continue to be a considerable risk factor for human health in Switzerland after 2003. More effective public health measures targeting the elderly should be promoted with increased attention to the first heat events in summer and considering both high day-time and night-time temperatures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Tilinina, Natalia; Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib

2016-08-01

The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970-1999 and 2000-2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000-2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970-1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes.

High latitude field aligned light ion flows in the topside ionosphere deduced from ion composition and plasma temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grebowsky, J. M.; Hoegy, W. R.; Chen, T. C.

1993-01-01

Using a comprehensive ionospheric data set comprised of all available ion composition and plasma temperature measurements from satellites, the vertical distributions of ion composition and plasma temperatures are defined from middle latitudes up into the polar cap for summer conditions for altitudes below about 1200 km. These data are sufficient to allow a numerical estimation of the latitudinal variation of the light ion outflows from within the plasmasphere to the polar wind regions. The altitude at which significant light ion outflow begins is found to be lower during solar minimum conditions than during solar maximum. The H(+) outward speeds are of the order of 1 km/s near 1100 km during solar maximum but attain several km/s speeds for solar minimum. He(+) shows a similar altitude development of flow but attains polar cap speeds much less than 1 km/s at altitudes below 1100 km, particularly under solar maximum conditions. Outward flows are also found in the topside F-region for noontime magnetic flux tubes within the plasmasphere.

Hydrothermal extremes at the South-West Pribaikalie during the current climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voropay, Nadezhda

2017-04-01

Climatic extremes of air temperature and precipitation were analyzed for the Tunka Intermountain Depression (South-West Pribaikalie, Buryatia, Russian Federation). Intermountain depressions occupy a quarter of the territory of the Baikal region. The specific climatic conditions in the depressions are formed due to the geographic location and the influence of latitudinal zonation and altitudinal gradients. Air temperature and precipitation data records from at weather stations for the period 1940-2015 were analyzed. Long-term average annual temperature is negative and varies from -0.8 °C to -2.4 °C. Air temperature absolute minimum is -48 °C, absolute maximum is +36 °C. The long-term average annual precipitation is 370-480 mm, but in some years annual precipitation reach 760 mm. The summer months have about 70% of the total annual precipitation, in July and August the sum may reach 340 mm. Maximum daily sum of rainfalls is 80 mm. The contribution of the global and regional circulation characteristics into the variability of regional climatic characteristics was estimated.

Consequences of seasonal variation in reservoir water level for predatory fishes: linking visual foraging and prey densities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klobucar, Stephen L.; Budy, Phaedra

2016-01-01

In reservoirs, seasonal drawdown can alter the physical environment and may influence predatory fish performance. We investigated the performance of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in a western reservoir by coupling field measurements with visual foraging and bioenergetic models at four distinct states (early summer, mid-summer, late summer, and fall). The models suggested that lake trout prey, juvenile kokanee (Oncorhynchus nerka), are limited seasonally by suitable temperature and dissolved oxygen. Accordingly, prey densities were greatest in late summer when reservoir volume was lowest and fish were concentrated by stratification. Prey encounter rates (up to 68 fish·day−1) and predator consumption are also predicted to be greatest during late summer. However, our models suggested that turbidity negatively correlates with prey detection and consumption across reservoir states. Under the most turbid conditions, lake trout did not meet physiological demands; however, during less turbid periods, predator consumption reached maximum bioenergetic efficiency. Overall, our findings demonstrate that rapid reservoir fluctuations and associated abiotic conditions can influence predator–prey interactions, and our models describe the potential impacts of water level fluctuation on valuable sport fishes.

Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lei; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yaocun

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation,more » the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.« less

Seasonal and Interannual Variations of Ice Sheet Surface Elevation at the Summit of Greenland: Observed and Modeled

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Jun, Li; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Observed seasonal and interannual variations in the surface elevation over the summit of the Greenland ice sheet are modeled using a new temperature-dependent formulation of firn-densification and observed accumulation variations. The observed elevation variations are derived from ERS (European Remote Sensing)-1 and ERS-2 radar altimeter data for the period between April 1992 and April 1999. A multivariate linear/sine function is fitted to an elevation time series constructed from elevation differences measured by radar altimetry at orbital crossovers. The amplitude of the seasonal elevation cycle is 0.25 m peak-to-peak, with a maximum in winter and a minimum in summer. Inter-annually, the elevation decreases to a minimum in 1995, followed by an increase to 1999, with an overall average increase of 4.2 cm a(exp -1) for 1992 to 1999. Our densification formulation uses an initial field-density profile, the AWS (automatic weather station) surface temperature record, and a temperature-dependent constitutive relation for the densification that is based on laboratory measurements of crystal growth rates. The rate constant and the activation energy commonly used in the Arrhenius-type constitutive relation for firn densification are also temperature dependent, giving a stronger temperature and seasonal amplitudes about 10 times greater than previous densification formulations. Summer temperatures are most important, because of the strong non-linear dependence on temperature. Much of firn densification and consequent surface lowering occurs within about three months of the summer season, followed by a surface build-up from snow accumulation until spring. Modeled interannual changes of the surface elevation, using the AWS measurements of surface temperature and accumulation and results of atmospheric modeling of precipitation variations, are in good agreement with the altimeter observations. In the model, the surface elevation decreases about 20 cm over the seven years due to more compaction driven by increasing summer temperatures. The minimum elevation in 1995 is driven mainly by a temporary accumulation decrease and secondarily by warmer temperatures. However, the overall elevation increase over the seven years is dominated by the accumulation increase in the later years.

Quantitative summer and winter temperature reconstructions from pollen and chironomid data in the Baltic-Belarus area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veski, Siim; Seppä, Heikki; Stančikaitė, Migle; Zernitskaya, Valentina; Reitalu, Triin; Gryguc, Gražyna; Heinsalu, Atko; Stivrins, Normunds; Amon, Leeli; Vassiljev, Jüri; Heiri, Oliver

2015-04-01

Quantitative reconstructions based on fossil pollen and chironomids are widely used and useful for long-term climate variability estimations. The Lateglacial and early Holocene period (15-8 ka BP) in the Baltic-Belarus (BB) area between 60°-51° N was characterized by sudden shifts in climate due to various climate forcings affecting the climate of the northern hemisphere and North Atlantic, including the proximity of receding ice sheets. Climate variations in BB during the LG were eminent as the southern part of the region was ice free during the Last Glacial Maximum over 19 ka BP, whereas northern Estonia became ice free no sooner than 13 ka BP. New pollen based reconstructions of summer (May-to-August) and winter (December-to-February) temperatures between 15-8 ka BP along a S-N transect in the BB area display trends in temporal and spatial changes in climate variability. These results are completed by two chironomid-based July mean temperature reconstructions (Heiri et al. 2014). The magnitude of change compared with modern temperatures was more prominent in the northern part of BB area than in the southern part. The 4 °C winter and 2 °C summer warming at the start of GI-1 was delayed in the BB area and Lateglacial maximum temperatures were reached at ca 13.6 ka BP, being 4 °C colder than the modern mean. The Younger Dryas cooling in the area was 5 °C colder than present as inferred by all proxies (Veski et al. in press). In addition, our analyses show an early Holocene divergence in winter temperature trends with modern values reaching 1 ka earlier (10 ka BP) in southern BB compared to the northern part of the region (9 ka BP). Heiri, O., Brooks, S.J., Renssen, H., Bedford, A., Hazekamp, M., Ilyashuk, B., Jeffers, E.S., Lang, B., Kirilova, E., Kuiper, S., Millet, L., Samartin, S., Toth, M., Verbruggen, F., Watson, J.E., van Asch, N., Lammertsma, E., Amon, L., Birks, H.H., Birks, J.B., Mortensen, M.F., Hoek, W.Z., Magyari, E., Muñoz Sobrino, C., Seppä, H., Tinner, W., Tonkov, S., Veski, S., Lotter, A.F., 2014. Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe. Nature Communications 5:4914, doi: 10.1038/ncomms5914 Veski, S., Seppä, H., Stančikaitė, M., Zernitskaya, V., Reitalu, T., Gryguc, G., Heinsalu, A., Stivrins, N., Amon, L., Vassiljev, J., Heiri, O. (in press). Quantitative summer and winter temperature reconstructions from pollen and chironomid data between 15 and 8 ka BP in the Baltic-Belarus area. Quaternary International. doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2014.10.059

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2018-03-01

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

Instream habitat restoration and stream temperature reduction in a whirling disease-positive Spring Creek in the Blackfoot River Basin, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierce, Ron; Podner, Craig; Marczak, Laurie B; Jones, Leslie A.

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic warming of stream temperature and the presence of exotic diseases such as whirling disease are both contemporary threats to coldwater salmonids across western North America. We examined stream temperature reduction over a 15-year prerestoration and postrestoration period and the severity of Myxobolus cerebralisinfection (agent of whirling disease) over a 7-year prerestoration and postrestoration period in Kleinschmidt Creek, a fully reconstructed spring creek in the Blackfoot River basin of western Montana. Stream restoration increased channel length by 36% and reduced the wetted surface area by 69% by narrowing and renaturalizing the channel. Following channel restoration, average maximum daily summer stream temperatures decreased from 15.7°C to 12.5°C, average daily temperature decreased from 11.2°C to 10.0°C, and the range of daily temperatures narrowed by 3.3°C. Despite large changes in channel morphology and reductions in summer stream temperature, the prevalence and severity of M. cerebralis infection for hatchery Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss remained high (98–100% test fish with grade > 3 infection) versus minimal for hatchery Brown Trout Salmo trutta (2% of test fish with grade-1 infection). This study shows channel renaturalization can reduce summer stream temperatures in small low-elevation, groundwater-dominated streams in the Blackfoot basin to levels more suitable to native trout. However, because of continuous high infections associated with groundwater-dominated systems, the restoration of Kleinschmidt Creek favors brown trout Salmo trutta given their innate resistance to the parasite and the higher relative susceptibility of other salmonids.

Hotter nests produce hatchling lizards with lower thermal tolerance.

PubMed

Dayananda, Buddhi; Murray, Brad R; Webb, Jonathan K

2017-06-15

In many regions, the frequency and duration of summer heatwaves is predicted to increase in future. Hotter summers could result in higher temperatures inside lizard nests, potentially exposing embryos to thermally stressful conditions during development. Potentially, developmentally plastic shifts in thermal tolerance could allow lizards to adapt to climate warming. To determine how higher nest temperatures affect the thermal tolerance of hatchling geckos, we incubated eggs of the rock-dwelling velvet gecko, Amalosia lesueurii , at two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current nest temperatures (mean 23.2°C, range 10-33°C, 'cold') and future nest temperatures (mean 27.0°C, range 14-37°C, 'hot'). Hatchlings from the hot incubation group hatched 27 days earlier and had a lower critical thermal maximum (CT max 38.7°C) and a higher critical thermal minimum (CT min 6.2°C) than hatchlings from cold incubation group (40.2 and 5.7°C, respectively). In the field, hatchlings typically settle under rocks near communal nests. During the hatching period, rock temperatures ranged from 13 to 59°C, and regularly exceeded the CT max of both hot- and cold-incubated hatchlings. Because rock temperatures were so high, the heat tolerance of lizards had little effect on their ability to exploit rocks as retreat sites. Instead, the timing of hatching dictated whether lizards could exploit rocks as retreat sites; that is, cold-incubated lizards that hatched later encountered less thermally stressful environments than earlier hatching hot-incubated lizards. In conclusion, we found no evidence that CT max can shift upwards in response to higher incubation temperatures, suggesting that hotter summers may increase the vulnerability of lizards to climate warming. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Methodology and results of calculating central California surface temperature trends: Evidence of human-induced climate change?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christy, J.R.; Norris, W.B.; Redmond, K.; Gallo, K.P.

2006-01-01

A procedure is described to construct time series of regional surface temperatures and is then applied to interior central California stations to test the hypothesis that century-scale trend differences between irrigated and nonirrigated regions may be identified. The procedure requires documentation of every point in time at which a discontinuity in a station record may have occurred through (a) the examination of metadata forms (e.g., station moves) and (b) simple statistical tests. From this "homogeneous segments" of temperature records for each station are defined. Biases are determined for each segment relative to all others through a method employing mathematical graph theory. The debiased segments are then merged, forming a complete regional time series. Time series of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for stations in the irrigated San Joaquin Valley (Valley) and nearby nonirrigated Sierra Nevada (Sierra) were generated for 1910-2003. Results show that twentieth-century Valley minimum temperatures are warming at a highly significant rate in all seasons, being greatest in summer and fall (> +0.25??C decade-1). The Valley trend of annual mean temperatures is +0.07?? ?? 0.07??C decade-1. Sierra summer and fall minimum temperatures appear to be cooling, but at a less significant rate, while the trend of annual mean Sierra temperatures is an unremarkable -0.02?? ?? 0.10??C decade-1. A working hypothesis is that the relative positive trends in Valley minus Sierra minima (>0.4??C decade-1 for summer and fall) are related to the altered surface environment brought about by the growth of irrigated agriculture, essentially changing a high-albedo desert into a darker, moister, vegetated plain. ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

Variation of maximum tree height and annual shoot growth of Smith fir at various elevations in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Wang, Yafeng; Čufar, Katarina; Eckstein, Dieter; Liang, Eryuan

2012-01-01

Little is known about tree height and height growth (as annual shoot elongation of the apical part of vertical stems) of coniferous trees growing at various altitudes on the Tibetan Plateau, which provides a high-elevation natural platform for assessing tree growth performance in relation to future climate change. We here investigated the variation of maximum tree height and annual height increment of Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii) in seven forest plots (30 m×40 m) along two altitudinal transects between 3,800 m and 4,200/4,390 m above sea level (a.s.l.) in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Four plots were located on north-facing slopes and three plots on southeast-facing slopes. At each site, annual shoot growth was obtained by measuring the distance between successive terminal bud scars along the main stem of 25 trees that were between 2 and 4 m high. Maximum/mean tree height and mean annual height increment of Smith fir decreased with increasing altitude up to the tree line, indicative of a stress gradient (the dominant temperature gradient) along the altitudinal transect. Above-average mean minimum summer (particularly July) temperatures affected height increment positively, whereas precipitation had no significant effect on shoot growth. The time series of annual height increments of Smith fir can be used for the reconstruction of past climate on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. In addition, it can be expected that the rising summer temperatures observed in the recent past and anticipated for the future will enhance Smith fir's growth throughout its altitudinal distribution range.

Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, G.T.; Fagre, D.B.; Gray, S.T.; Graumlich, L.J.

2004-01-01

Little Ice Age (14th-19th centuries A.D.) glacial maxima and 20th century retreat have been well documented in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. However, the influence of regional and Pacific Basin driven climate variability on these events is poorly understood. We use tree-ring reconstructions of North Pacific surface temperature anomalies and summer drought as proxies for winter glacial accumulation and summer ablation, respectively, over the past three centuries. These records show that the 1850's glacial maximum was likely produced by ???70 yrs of cool/wet summers coupled with high snowpack. Post 1850, glacial retreat coincides with an extended period (>50 yr) of summer drought and low snowpack culminating in the exceptional events of 1917 to 1941 when retreat rates for some glaciers exceeded 100 m/yr. This research highlights potential local and ocean-based drivers of glacial dynamics, and difficulties in separating the effects of global climate change from regional expressions of decadal-scale climate variability. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Latitudinal patterns in the life-history traits of three isolated Atlantic populations of the deep-water shrimp Plesionika edwardsii (Decapoda, Pandalidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, José A.; Pajuelo, José G.; Triay-Portella, Raül; Ruiz-Díaz, Raquel; Delgado, João; Góis, Ana R.; Martins, Albertino

2016-11-01

Patterns in the life-history traits of the pandalid shrimp Plesionika edwardsii are studied for the first time in three isolated Atlantic populations (Madeira, Canaries and Cape Verde Islands) to gain an understanding of their latitudinal variations. The maximum carapace size of the populations studied, as well as the maximum weight, showed clear latitudinal patterns. The patterns observed may be a consequence of the temperature experienced by shrimps during development, 1.37 ° C higher in the Canaries and 5.96 ° C higher in the Cape Verde Islands than in Madeira. These temperature differences among populations may have induced phenotypic plasticity because the observed final body size decreased as the temperature increased. A latitudinal north-south pattern was also observed in the maximum size of ovigerous females, with larger sizes found in the Madeira area and lower sizes observed in the Cape Verde Islands. A similar pattern was observed in the brood size and maximum egg size. Females of P. edwardsii produced smaller eggs in the Cape Verde Islands than did those at the higher latitude in Madeira. P. edwardsii was larger at sexual maturity in Madeira than in the Cape Verde Islands. The relative size at sexual maturity is not affected by latitude or environmental factors and is the same in the three areas studied, varying slightly between 0.568 and 0.585. P. edwardsii had a long reproductive season with ovigerous females observed all year round, although latitudinal variations were observed. Seasonally, there were more ovigerous females in spring and summer in Madeira and from winter to summer in the Cape Verde Islands. P. edwardsii showed a latitudinal pattern in size, with asymptotic size and growth rate showing a latitudinal compensation gradient as a result of an increased growth performance in the Madeira population compared to that of the Cape Verde Islands.

Experimental temperature analysis of simple & hybrid earth air tunnel heat exchanger in series connection at Bikaner Rajasthan India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakhar, O. P.; Sharma, Chandra Shekhar; Kukana, Rajendra

2018-05-01

The Earth Air Tunnel Heat Exchanger System is a passive air-conditioning system which has no side effect on earth climate and produces better cooling effect and heating effect comfortable to human body. It produces heating effect in winter and cooling effect in summer with the minimum power consumption of energy as compare to other air-conditioning devices. In this research paper Temperature Analysis was done on the two systems of Earth Air Tunnel Heat Exchanger experimentally for summer cooling purpose. Both the system was installed at Mechanical Engineering Department Government Engineering College Bikaner Rajasthan India. Experimental results concludes that the Average Air Temperature Difference was found as 11.00° C and 16.27° C for the Simple and Hybrid Earth Air Tunnel Heat Exchanger in Series Connection System respectively. The Maximum Air Temperature Difference was found as 18.10° C and 23.70° C for the Simple and Hybrid Earth Air Tunnel Heat Exchanger in Series Connection System respectively. The Minimum Air Temperature Difference was found as 5.20° C and 11.70° C for the Simple and Hybrid Earth Air Tunnel Heat Exchanger in Series Connection System respectively.

The impact of thermal pollution on benthic foraminiferal assemblages in the SE Mediterranean shore (Israel) as an analog to global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arieli, Ruthie Nina; Almogi-Labin, Ahuva; Abramovich, Sigal; Herut, Barak

2010-05-01

Scientific and public awareness to global warming increased significantly lately. In the Mediterranean Sea the current rate of warming stands at 0.028 °C/year in accordance with the forecast of global warming of 0.2 °C per decade. The aim of this study is to examine the effects of locally elevated vs. natural SST on benthic foraminifera, which are known to be sensitive bioindicators of environmental change. The thermal patch originating from the "Orot Rabin" power plant off the coast of Israel was chosen as a sampling area for this research since it presents a unique small-scale analog for expected future rise in SST. Ten monthly sampling campaigns were performed during a period of one year in 4 stations located along a temperature gradient of approximately 10 °C, from the discharge site of the heated seawater to a few kilometers south. Benthic foraminifera were collected from a shoreface complex of macroalgae and sediments trapped within. The SST varied between winter, 25/18 °C and summer, 36/31 °C along the transect. During the summer, the addition of the temperature anomaly to the already extreme summer temperatures becomes a biologically threat. The natural seasonal variability, depicted best by station 4 located beyond the thermal patch, shows that foraminifera reach maximal abundance in winter and spring. A significant negative correlation was found between SST in all stations and benthic foraminiferal assemblage characteristics. The abundance, species richness and species diversity show negative correlation with the SST anomaly throughout most of the sampling period, though the species diversity was not as significant as the abundance. The total foraminiferal abundance was significantly lower at the thermally polluted stations, especially during the summer, but also throughout the entire year, indicating that the thermal pollution has a detrimental effect on benthic foraminifera, irrelevant to the natural cyclic changes in SST. The foraminiferal abundances decrease drastically as the SST rises, reaching minimal abundances when the SST rises above 30 °C, indicating that this temperature may be a critical threshold above which foraminiferal growth and reproduction are severely retarded. Species richness reached extremely low values at the thermally polluted stations during the summer, with a minimum of 3 species compared to a maximum of 24 in the natural, unaffected station 4. This indicates that some species have adapted to the elevated temperatures better than others. The foraminiferal assemblage, composed mostly of epiphytic species, contains a total of 42 species with six species dominating the assemblage. Out of the six dominant species Rosalina globularis, Tretomphalus bulloides and Textularia agglutinans show a clear preference to the winter months, while species belonging Lachlanella reach maximum abundances in spring and Pararotalia spinigera in summer. The miliolids, Lachlanella sp. 1 and sp. 2 seem to have high tolerance to the elevated SST and even survived the most extreme summer temperatures at the thermally polluted stations. In this research we show that even a rise, as small as 2 °C, in SST can have serious ramifications on the benthic community characteristics living in the near shore environment. If foraminifera are affected to such an extent it is not unlikely that other more developed marine creatures will be negatively affected as well, either directly by the rise in SST or via the decrease in organisms lower down the marine food chain, such as foraminifera.

Changing stream temperatures in a changing world: evaluating spatio-temporal patterns and trends across the eastern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelleher, C.; Archfield, S. A.

2016-12-01

Stream temperatures drive biogeochemical processes and influence ecosystem health and extent, with patterns of stream temperature arising from complex interactions between climate, land cover, and in-stream diversions and dams. While each of these individual drivers may have well-understood implications for changing stream temperatures, considering the concomitant impacts of these drivers along the stream network is much more difficult. This is true especially for the eastern United States, where downstream temperature integrates many different upstream impacts. To begin to decipher the influence of these different drivers on changing stream temperatures and how these impacts may manifest through time, we examined trends for 66 sites with continuous stream temperature measurements across the eastern United States. Stream temperature records were summarized as daily mean, maximum, and mimimum values, and sites consisting of 15 or more years of data were selected for analysis. While annual stream temperatures at 53 locations were warming, a few sites on larger rivers (n = 13) have been cooling. To explore the timing of these changes as well as their implications for aquatic species, we calculated trends for seasonal extremes (average of the five warmest and coolest daily stream temperatures) during spring, summer, and fall. Interestingly, while some streams displayed strong warming trends in peak summer temperatures (n = 43), many streams also displayed cooling trends (n = 23). We also found that peak stream temperatures were warming faster in fall than in summer for many locations (n = 36). Results of this analysis show that warming (and cooling) happens at different times in different places, as a function of climate and anthropogenic impacts. Finally, we explore potential drivers of these different patterns, to determine the relative impacts of climate, land cover, and in-stream water diversions on stream temperature change. Given that the number of regulated stream miles is only increasing, improving our understanding of linkages between landscape drivers and stream temperature variation may have important outcomes for river management in a changing world.

Time trends in minimum mortality temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (Central Spain): 1975-2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miron, Isidro J.; Criado-Alvarez, Juan José; Diaz, Julio; Linares, Cristina; Mayoral, Sheila; Montero, Juan Carlos

2008-03-01

The relationship between air temperature and human mortality is described as non-linear, with mortality tending to rise in response to increasingly hot or cold ambient temperatures from a given minimum mortality or optimal comfort temperature, which varies from some areas to others according to their climatic and socio-demographic characteristics. Changes in these characteristics within any specific region could modify this relationship. This study sought to examine the time trend in the maximum temperature of minimum organic-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha, from 1975 to 2003. The analysis was performed by using daily series of maximum temperatures and organic-cause mortality rates grouped into three decades (1975-1984, 1985-1994, 1995-2003) to compare confidence intervals ( p < 0.05) obtained by estimating the 10-yearly mortality rates corresponding to the maximum temperatures of minimum mortality calculated for each decade. Temporal variations in the effects of cold and heat on mortality were ascertained by means of ARIMA models (Box-Jenkins) and cross-correlation functions (CCF) at seven lags. We observed a significant decrease in comfort temperature (from 34.2°C to 27.8°C) between the first two decades in the Province of Toledo, along with a growing number of significant lags in the summer CFF (1, 3 and 5, respectively). The fall in comfort temperature is attributable to the increase in the effects of heat on mortality, due, in all likelihood, to the percentage increase in the elderly population.

Reproductive patterns in demersal crustaceans from the upper boundary of the OMZ off north-central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallardo, María de los Ángeles; González López, Andrés E.; Ramos, Marcel; Mujica, Armando; Muñoz, Praxedes; Sellanes, Javier; Yannicelli, Beatriz

2017-06-01

Pleuroncodes monodon (Crustacea: Munididae) supports one of the main trawling fisheries over the continental shelf off Chile between 25°S and 37°S within the upper boundary of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). Although the reproductive cycle of P. monodon has been described, the relationship between this key biological process and the variability of the OMZ has not been comprehensibly addressed neither for P. monodon nor for other OMZ resident species. In this study a set of 14 quasi-monthly oceanographic cruises carried out between June 2010 and November 2011 were conducted over the continental shelf off Coquimbo (30°S) to investigate the temporal variability of: i) dissolved oxygen concentration, temperature and chlorophyll-a at relevant depths ii) the presence and proportion of occurrence of P. monodon ovigerous females and juveniles from benthic trawls; iii) the presence of different stage larvae in the plankton, and iv) similar biological data for other species from the OMZ and shallower depths crustaceans. During summer months oxygen levels and bottom temperature were lower than in winter, while chlorophyll-a concentration was maximum in summer coinciding with an active (but not maximum) upwelling season. P. monodon maximum egg carrying occurred in winter during periods of increased oxygenation. Egg carrying females were never found at depths where oxygen concentration was below 0.5 ml L-1, while over 50% of the autumn and spring cohorts of juveniles occurred at oxygen concentrations below that level. The depth range occupied by ovigerous females was more restricted than the rest of the population and their depth of occurrence followed the variability of the upper OMZ. The larval release period of OMZ resident species extends over late winter and spring, and its main peak precedes that of coastal species (spring) and the spring-summer chlorophyll-a maximum. We propose that for OMZ resident species, brood carrying during warmer and more oxygenated conditions in the adult benthic environment, might favor embryonic development, so OMZ seasonal variability could be acting as a selective pressure to synchronize reproductive periods.

Effects of climate change on daily minimum and maximum temperatures and cloudiness in the Shikoku region: a statistical downscaling model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatsumi, Kenichi; Oizumi, Tsutao; Yamashiki, Yosuke

2015-04-01

In this study, we present a detailed analysis of the effect of changes in cloudiness (CLD) between a future period (2071-2099) and the base period (1961-1990) on daily minimum temperature (TMIN) and maximum temperature (TMAX) in the same period for the Shikoku region, Japan. This analysis was performed using climate data obtained with the use of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). We calibrated the SDSM using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the SDSM input and daily time series of temperature and CLD from 10 surface data points (SDP) in Shikoku. Subsequently, we validated the SDSM outputs, specifically, TMIN, TMAX, and CLD, obtained with the use of the NCEP reanalysis dataset and general circulation model (GCM) data against the SDP. The GCM data used in the validation procedure were those from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios and from the third generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios. Finally, the validated SDSM was run to study the effect of future changes in CLD on TMIN and TMAX. Our analysis showed that (1) the negative linear fit between changes in TMAX and those in CLD was statistically significant in winter while the relationship between the two changes was not evident in summer, (2) the dependency of future changes in TMAX and TMIN on future changes in CLD were more evident in winter than in other seasons with the present SDSM, (3) the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased in the southern part of Shikoku in summer in all the SDSM projections while DTR increased in the northern part of Shikoku in the same season in these projections, (4) the dependencies of changes in DTR on changes in CLD were unclear in summer and winter. Results of the SDSM simulations performed for climate change scenarios such as those from this study contribute to local-scale agricultural and hydrological simulations and development of agricultural and hydrological models.

Changing Seasonality of Tundra Vegetation and Associated Climatic Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Raynolds, M. K.; Bieniek, P.; Epstein, H. E.; Comiso, J. C.; Pinzon, J.; Tucker, C. J.; Steele, M.; Ermold, W. S.; Zhang, J.

2014-12-01

This study documents changes in the seasonality of tundra vegetation productivity and its associated climate variables using long-term data sets. An overall increase of Pan-Arctic tundra greenness potential corresponds to increased land surface temperatures and declining sea ice concentrations. While sea ice has continued to decline, summer land surface temperature and vegetation productivity increases have stalled during the last decade in parts of the Arctic. To understand the processes behind these features we investigate additional climate parameters. This study employs remotely sensed weekly 25-km sea ice concentration, weekly surface temperature, and bi-weekly NDVI from 1982 to 2013. Maximum NDVI (MaxNDVI, Maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), Time Integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI), Summer Warmth Index (SWI, sum of degree months above freezing during May-August), ocean heat content (PIOMAS, model incorporating ocean data assimilation), and snow water equivalent (GlobSnow, assimilated snow data set) are explored. We analyzed the data for the full period (1982-2013) and for two sub-periods (1982-1998 and 1999-2013), which were chosen based on the declining Pan-Arctic SWI since 1998. MaxNDVI has increased from 1982-2013 over most of the Arctic but has declined from 1999 to 2013 over western Eurasia, northern Canada, and southwest Alaska. TI-NDVI has trends that are similar to those for MaxNDVI for the full period but displays widespread declines over the 1999-2013 period. Therefore, as the MaxNDVI has continued to increase overall for the Arctic, TI-NDVI has been declining since 1999. SWI has large relative increases over the 1982-2013 period in eastern Canada and Greenland and strong declines in western Eurasia and southern Canadian tundra. Weekly Pan-Arctic tundra land surface temperatures warmed throughout the summer during the 1982-1998 period but display midsummer declines from 1999-2013. Weekly snow water equivalent over Arctic tundra has declined over most seasons but shows slight increases in spring in North America and during fall over Eurasia. Later spring or earlier fall snow cover can both lead to reductions in TI-NDVI. The time-varying spatial patterns of NDVI trends can be largely explained using either snow cover or land surface temperature trends.

Evidence of the Lower Thermospheric Winter-to-Summer Circulation From SABER CO2 Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Liying; Burns, Alan; Yue, Jia

2017-10-01

Numerical studies have shown that there is a lower thermospheric winter-to-summer circulation that is driven by wave dissipation and that it plays a significant role in trace gas distributions in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, and in the composition of the thermosphere. However, the characteristics of this circulation are poorly known. Direct observations of it are difficult, but it leaves clear signatures in tracer distributions. The Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) onboard the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite has obtained CO2 concentration from 2002 to present. This data set, combined with simulations by the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, provides an unprecedented opportunity to infer the morphology of this circulation in both the summer and winter hemispheres. Our study show that there exists a maximum vertical gradient of CO2 at summer high latitudes, driven by the convergence of the upwelling of the mesospheric circulation and the downwelling of the lower thermospheric circulation; in the winter hemisphere, the maximum vertical gradient of CO2 is located at a higher altitude, driven by the convergence of the upwelling of the lower thermospheric circulation and the downwelling of the solar-driven thermospheric circulation; the bottom of the lower thermospheric circulation is located between 95 km and 100 km, and it has a vertical extent of 10 km. Analysis of the SABER CO2 and temperature at summer high latitudes showed that the bottom of this circulation is consistently higher than the mesopause height by 10 km.

A dynamic growth model of macroalgae: Application in an estuary recovering from treated wastewater and earthquake-driven eutrophication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Jeffrey S.; Barr, Neill G.; Scheuer, Kristin; Schiel, David R.; Zeldis, John

2014-07-01

A dynamic growth model of macroalgae was developed to predict growth of the green macroalga Ulva sp. in response to changes in environmental variables. The model is based on common physiological behaviour of macroalgae and hence has general applicability to macroalgae. Three state variables (nitrogen, carbon and phosphorus) were used to describe physiological processes and functional differences between nutrient and carbon uptakes. Carbon uptake is modelled as a function of temperature, light, algal internal state and water current, while nutrient uptake depends on internal state, temperature and environmental nutrient level. Growth can only occur when nutrients in the environment and in the internal storage pools (N-quota and P-quota) reach threshold levels. Physiological rates follow the Arrhenius relationship and increase exponentially with increasing temperature within the temperature tolerance range of a species. When parameterised and applied to Ulva sp. in the eutrophic Avon-Heathcote Estuary, New Zealand, the model generally reproduced field observations of Ulva sp. growth and abundance. Growth followed a clear seasonal cycle with biomass increasing from early-middle summer, reaching peak values in early autumn and then decreasing. Conversely, N-quotient levels were maximal during the winter months, declining during summer peak growth. These seasonal patterns were collectively driven by temperature, light intensity and nutrients. The model captured the N-quota and growth responses of Ulva sp. to the N-reduction arising from diversion of treated wastewater from the Avon-Heathcote Estuary to an offshore outfall in 2010, and of raw sewage N-discharges resulting from wastewater infrastructure damage caused by the Canterbury earthquakes in 2011. Sensitivity analyses revealed that temperature-related parameters and maximum uptake rate of C were among the most sensitive parameters in predicting biomass. In addition, the earthquake-derived changes in reduction of immersion time and decrease in the start biomass prior to summer blooms were shown to drive considerable declines in summer growth and biomass of Ulva sp.

Biophysical drivers of seasonal variability in Sphagnum gross primary production in a northern temperate bog

DOE PAGES

Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Norby, Richard J.; Hanson, Paul J.; ...

2017-04-18

Sphagnum mosses are the keystone species of peatland ecosystems. With rapid rates of climate change occurring in high latitudes, vast reservoirs of carbon accumulated over millennia in peatland ecosystems are potentially vulnerable to rising temperature and changing precipitation. We investigate the seasonal drivers of Sphagnum gross primary production (GPP)—the entry point of carbon into wetland ecosystems. Continuous flux measurements and flux partitioning show a seasonal cycle of Sphagnum GPP that peaked in the late summer, well after the peak in photosynthetically active radiation. Wavelet analysis showed that water table height was the key driver of weekly variation in Sphagnum GPPmore » in the early summer and that temperature was the primary driver of GPP in the late summer and autumn. Flux partitioning and a process-based model of Sphagnum photosynthesis demonstrated the likelihood of seasonally dynamic maximum rates of photosynthesis and a logistic relationship between the water table and photosynthesizing tissue area when the water table was at the Sphagnum surface. Here, the model also suggested that variability in internal resistance to CO 2 transport, a function of Sphagnum water content, had minimal effect on GPP. To accurately model Sphagnum GPP, we recommend the following: (1) understanding seasonal photosynthetic trait variation and its triggers in Sphagnum; (2) characterizing the interaction of Sphagnum photosynthesizing tissue area with water table height; (3) modeling Sphagnum as a “soil” layer for consistent simulation of water dynamics; and (4) measurement of Sphagnum “canopy” properties: extinction coefficient (k), clumping (Ω), and maximum stem area index (SAI).« less

Biophysical drivers of seasonal variability in Sphagnum gross primary production in a northern temperate bog

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Norby, Richard J.; Hanson, Paul J.

Sphagnum mosses are the keystone species of peatland ecosystems. With rapid rates of climate change occurring in high latitudes, vast reservoirs of carbon accumulated over millennia in peatland ecosystems are potentially vulnerable to rising temperature and changing precipitation. We investigate the seasonal drivers of Sphagnum gross primary production (GPP)—the entry point of carbon into wetland ecosystems. Continuous flux measurements and flux partitioning show a seasonal cycle of Sphagnum GPP that peaked in the late summer, well after the peak in photosynthetically active radiation. Wavelet analysis showed that water table height was the key driver of weekly variation in Sphagnum GPPmore » in the early summer and that temperature was the primary driver of GPP in the late summer and autumn. Flux partitioning and a process-based model of Sphagnum photosynthesis demonstrated the likelihood of seasonally dynamic maximum rates of photosynthesis and a logistic relationship between the water table and photosynthesizing tissue area when the water table was at the Sphagnum surface. Here, the model also suggested that variability in internal resistance to CO 2 transport, a function of Sphagnum water content, had minimal effect on GPP. To accurately model Sphagnum GPP, we recommend the following: (1) understanding seasonal photosynthetic trait variation and its triggers in Sphagnum; (2) characterizing the interaction of Sphagnum photosynthesizing tissue area with water table height; (3) modeling Sphagnum as a “soil” layer for consistent simulation of water dynamics; and (4) measurement of Sphagnum “canopy” properties: extinction coefficient (k), clumping (Ω), and maximum stem area index (SAI).« less

Biophysical drivers of seasonal variability in Sphagnum gross primary production in a northern temperate bog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, Anthony P.; Carter, Kelsey R.; Gu, Lianhong; Hanson, Paul J.; Malhotra, Avni; Norby, Richard J.; Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Weston, David J.

2017-05-01

Sphagnum mosses are the keystone species of peatland ecosystems. With rapid rates of climate change occurring in high latitudes, vast reservoirs of carbon accumulated over millennia in peatland ecosystems are potentially vulnerable to rising temperature and changing precipitation. We investigate the seasonal drivers of Sphagnum gross primary production (GPP)—the entry point of carbon into wetland ecosystems. Continuous flux measurements and flux partitioning show a seasonal cycle of Sphagnum GPP that peaked in the late summer, well after the peak in photosynthetically active radiation. Wavelet analysis showed that water table height was the key driver of weekly variation in Sphagnum GPP in the early summer and that temperature was the primary driver of GPP in the late summer and autumn. Flux partitioning and a process-based model of Sphagnum photosynthesis demonstrated the likelihood of seasonally dynamic maximum rates of photosynthesis and a logistic relationship between the water table and photosynthesizing tissue area when the water table was at the Sphagnum surface. The model also suggested that variability in internal resistance to CO2 transport, a function of Sphagnum water content, had minimal effect on GPP. To accurately model Sphagnum GPP, we recommend the following: (1) understanding seasonal photosynthetic trait variation and its triggers in Sphagnum; (2) characterizing the interaction of Sphagnum photosynthesizing tissue area with water table height; (3) modeling Sphagnum as a "soil" layer for consistent simulation of water dynamics; and (4) measurement of Sphagnum "canopy" properties: extinction coefficient (k), clumping (Ω), and maximum stem area index (SAI).

Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn; Monaghan, Andrew; Hayden, Mary; Wilhelmi, Olga

2016-01-01

Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum heat index (HImax) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin) and 7.3°C (HImax) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin) and 2.5°C (HImax), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin) and 8.3°C (HImax), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat. PMID:26863298

The effect of hot days on occupational heat stress in the manufacturing industry: implications for workers' well-being and productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pogačar, Tjaša; Casanueva, Ana; Kozjek, Katja; Ciuha, Urša; Mekjavić, Igor B.; Kajfež Bogataj, Lučka; Črepinšek, Zalika

2018-03-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate heat stress at the workplace in temperate regions, such as Slovenia. It is therefore of paramount importance to study present and future summer heat conditions and analyze the impact of heat on workers. A set of climate indices based on summer mean (Tmean) and maximum (Tmax) air temperatures, such as the number of hot days (HD: Tmax above 30 °C), and Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) were used to account for heat conditions in Slovenia at six locations in the period 1981-2010. Observed trends (1961-2011) of Tmean and Tmax in July were positive, being larger in the eastern part of the country. Climate change projections showed an increase up to 4.5 °C for mean temperature and 35 days for HD by the end of the twenty-first century under the high emission scenario. The increase in WBGT was smaller, although sufficiently high to increase the frequency of days with a high risk of heat stress up to an average of a third of the summer days. A case study performed at a Slovenian automobile parts manufacturing plant revealed non-optimal working conditions during summer 2016 (WBGT mainly between 20 and 25 °C). A survey conducted on 400 workers revealed that 96% perceived the temperature conditions as unsuitable, and 56% experienced headaches and fatigue. Given these conditions and climate change projections, the escalating problem of heat is worrisome. The European Commission initiated a program of research within the Horizon 2020 program to develop a heat warning system for European workers and employers, which will incorporate case-specific solutions to mitigate heat stress.

The effect of hot days on occupational heat stress in the manufacturing industry: implications for workers' well-being and productivity.

PubMed

Pogačar, Tjaša; Casanueva, Ana; Kozjek, Katja; Ciuha, Urša; Mekjavić, Igor B; Kajfež Bogataj, Lučka; Črepinšek, Zalika

2018-03-30

Climate change is expected to exacerbate heat stress at the workplace in temperate regions, such as Slovenia. It is therefore of paramount importance to study present and future summer heat conditions and analyze the impact of heat on workers. A set of climate indices based on summer mean (Tmean) and maximum (Tmax) air temperatures, such as the number of hot days (HD: Tmax above 30 °C), and Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) were used to account for heat conditions in Slovenia at six locations in the period 1981-2010. Observed trends (1961-2011) of Tmean and Tmax in July were positive, being larger in the eastern part of the country. Climate change projections showed an increase up to 4.5 °C for mean temperature and 35 days for HD by the end of the twenty-first century under the high emission scenario. The increase in WBGT was smaller, although sufficiently high to increase the frequency of days with a high risk of heat stress up to an average of a third of the summer days. A case study performed at a Slovenian automobile parts manufacturing plant revealed non-optimal working conditions during summer 2016 (WBGT mainly between 20 and 25 °C). A survey conducted on 400 workers revealed that 96% perceived the temperature conditions as unsuitable, and 56% experienced headaches and fatigue. Given these conditions and climate change projections, the escalating problem of heat is worrisome. The European Commission initiated a program of research within the Horizon 2020 program to develop a heat warning system for European workers and employers, which will incorporate case-specific solutions to mitigate heat stress.

Spring Soil Temperature Anomalies over Northwest U.S. and later Spring-Summer Droughts/Floods over Southern Plains and Adjacent Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Y.; Diallo, I.; Li, W.; Neelin, J. D.; Chu, P. C.; Vasic, R.; Zhu, Y.; LI, Q.; Robinson, D. A.

2017-12-01

Recurrent droughts/floods are high-impact meteorological events. Many studies have attributed these episodes to variability and anomaly of global sea surface temperatures (SST). However, studies have consistently shown that SST along is unable to fully explain the extreme climate events. Remote effects of large-scale spring land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature (SUBT) variability in Northwest U.S. over the Rocky Mountain area on later spring-summer droughts/floods over the Southern Plains and adjacent areas, however, have been largely ignored. In this study, evidence from climate observations and model simulations addresses these effects. The Maximum Covariance Analysis of observational data identifies that a pronounce spring LST anomaly pattern over Northwest U.S. is closely associated with summer precipitation anomalies in Southern Plains: negative/positive spring LST anomaly is associated with the summer drought/flood over the Southern Plains. The global and regional weather forecast models were used to demonstrate a causal relationship. The modeling study suggests that the observed LST and SUBT anomalies produced about 29% and 31% of observed May 2015 heavy precipitation and June 2011 precipitation deficit, respectively. The analyses discovered that the LST/SUBT's downstream effects are associated with a large-scale atmospheric stationary wave extending eastward from the LST/SUBT anomaly region. For comparison, the SST effect was also tested and produced about 31% and 45% of the May 2015 heavy precipitation and June 2011 drought conditions, respectively. This study suggests that consideration of both SST and LST/SUBT anomalies are able to explain a substantial amount of variance in precipitation at sub-seasonal scale and inclusion of the LST/SUBT effect is essential to make reliable sub-seasonal and seasonal North American drought/flood predictions.

Strong impacts of daily minimum temperature on the green-up date and summer greenness of the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Shen, Miaogen; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Xiaoqiu; An, Shuai; Fu, Yongshuo H; Wang, Shiping; Cong, Nan; Janssens, Ivan A

2016-09-01

Understanding vegetation responses to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) helps in elucidating the land-atmosphere energy exchange, which affects air mass movement over and around the TP. Although the TP is one of the world's most sensitive regions in terms of climatic warming, little is known about how the vegetation responds. Here, we focus on how spring phenology and summertime greenness respond to the asymmetric warming, that is, stronger warming during nighttime than during daytime. Using both in situ and satellite observations, we found that vegetation green-up date showed a stronger negative partial correlation with daily minimum temperature (Tmin ) than with maximum temperature (Tmax ) before the growing season ('preseason' henceforth). Summer vegetation greenness was strongly positively correlated with summer Tmin , but negatively with Tmax . A 1-K increase in preseason Tmin advanced green-up date by 4 days (P < 0.05) and in summer enhanced greenness by 3.6% relative to the mean greenness during 2000-2004 (P < 0.01). In contrast, increases in preseason Tmax did not advance green-up date (P > 0.10) and higher summer Tmax even reduced greenness by 2.6% K(-1) (P < 0.05). The stimulating effects of increasing Tmin were likely caused by reduced low temperature constraints, and the apparent negative effects of higher Tmax on greenness were probably due to the accompanying decline in water availability. The dominant enhancing effect of nighttime warming indicates that climatic warming will probably have stronger impact on TP ecosystems than on apparently similar Arctic ecosystems where vegetation is controlled mainly by Tmax . Our results are crucial for future improvements of dynamic vegetation models embedded in the Earth System Models which are being used to describe the behavior of the Asian monsoon. The results are significant because the state of the vegetation on the TP plays an important role in steering the monsoon. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Methane Emissions from Small Lakes: Dynamics and Distribution Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Encinas Fernández, J. M.; Peeters, F.; Hofmann, H.

2014-12-01

The dynamics of dissolved methane were measured during three years in five small lakes with different surface areas and maximum water depth. We analyze and compare the horizontal and vertical distribution of dissolved methane within these lakes during different time periods: the stratified period in summer, the autumn overturn, the winter mixing period, and the period from spring to summer stratification. The horizontal distributions of dissolved methane within the lakes suggest that the relation between surface area and maximum water-depth is a key factor determining the heterogeneity of methane concentrations in the surface water. During most of the year littoral zones are the main source of the methane that is emitted to the atmosphere except for the overturn periods. The vertical distributions of temperature and dissolved oxygen within the different seasons affect the vertical distribution of dissolved methane and thus the methane budget within lakes. Anoxic conditions in the hypolimnion and the intense mixing during overturn periods are key factors for the overall annual methane emissions from lakes.

Estimating future temperature maxima in lakes across the United States using a surrogate modeling approach

PubMed Central

Zi, Tan; Schmidt, Michelle; Johnson, Thomas E.; Nover, Daniel M.; Clark, Christopher M.

2017-01-01

A warming climate increases thermal inputs to lakes with potential implications for water quality and aquatic ecosystems. In a previous study, we used a dynamic water column temperature and mixing simulation model to simulate chronic (7-day average) maximum temperatures under a range of potential future climate projections at selected sites representative of different U.S. regions. Here, to extend results to lakes where dynamic models have not been developed, we apply a novel machine learning approach that uses Gaussian Process regression to describe the model response surface as a function of simplified lake characteristics (depth, surface area, water clarity) and climate forcing (winter and summer air temperatures and potential evapotranspiration). We use this approach to extrapolate predictions from the simulation model to the statistical sample of U.S. lakes in the National Lakes Assessment (NLA) database. Results provide a national-scale scoping assessment of the potential thermal risk to lake water quality and ecosystems across the U.S. We suggest a small fraction of lakes will experience less risk of summer thermal stress events due to changes in stratification and mixing dynamics, but most will experience increases. The percentage of lakes in the NLA with simulated 7-day average maximum water temperatures in excess of 30°C is projected to increase from less than 2% to approximately 22% by the end of the 21st century, which could significantly reduce the number of lakes that can support cold water fisheries. Site-specific analysis of the full range of factors that influence thermal profiles in individual lakes is needed to develop appropriate adaptation strategies. PMID:29121058

Development of relative thermal stress index (RTSI) for Monitoring and Management of Dry Deciduous Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, R. K.; Vijayan, D.

Gir wildlife sanctuary located between 20 r 57 to 21 r 20 N and 70 r 28 to 71 r 13 E is the last home of Asiatic lions Its biodiversity comprises of 450 recorded flowering plant species 32 species of mammals 26 species of reptiles about 300 species of birds and more than 2000 species of insects As per 1995 census it has 304 lions and 268 leopards The movement of wildlife to thermally comfortable zones to reduce stress conditions forces the changes in management plan with reference to change in localized water demand This necessitates the use of space based thermal data available from AVHRR MODIS etc to monitor temperature of Gir-ecosystem for meso-scale level operational utility As the time scale of the variability of NDVI parameter is much higher than that for lower boundary temperature LBT the dense patch in riverine forest having highest NDVI value would not experience change in its vigour with the change in the season NDVI value of such patch would be near invariant over the year and temperature of this pixel could serve as reference temperature for developing the concept of relative thermal stress index RTSI which is defined as RTSI T p -T r T max -T r wherein T r T max and T p refer to LBT over the maximum NDVI reference point maximum LBT observed in the Gir ecosystem and the temperature of the pixel in the image respectively RTSI images were computed from AVHRR images for post-monsoon leaf-shedded and summer seasons Scatter plot between RTSI and NDVI for summer seasons

NPP estimation and seasonal change research of Gansu province in northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Tao; Wang, Dawei; Hao, Xiaocui; Jiang, Youyan

2018-03-01

Based on GIS and remote sensing technology, this paper estimates the NPP of the 2015 year-round and every season of Gansu province in northwest China by using the CASA(Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) light energy utilization model. The result shows that the total annual NPP of Gansu province gradually decline from southeast to northwest in the space, which is in accordance with the water and heat condition in Gansu province. The results show that the summer NPP in Gansu Province is the maximum in each season. The maximum value of summer NPP in Gansu Province reached 695 (gCm-2•season-1), and the maximum value was 473 in spring, and 288 in the autumn, and the NPP in the winter in Gansu province were under 60. The fluctuation range of NPP value is large, this is due to the diversity of ecosystem types in Gansu province, including desert, grassland, farmland and forest, among them, the grassland area is the largest, and the grassland type is very diverse, the grassland coverage is obviously different, especially the low coverage grassland growth is affected by precipitation and temperature and other meteorological factors obviously.

Long-Range Forecasting of Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation for the Korean Peninsula

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

tropics and extratropics and tend to produce their maximum extratropical impacts in the winter hemisphere. For example, ENLN have been shown to...convection anomalies during the summer that can extend across large portions of the extratropics (Figure 3). This tropical convection is significantly...anomalously frequent (less frequent) and strong (weak) extratropical cyclones tracking in a more northerly (southerly) path across the North Atlantic

Influence of four tree shelter types on microclimate and seedling performance of Oregon white oak and western redcedar.

Treesearch

Warren D. Devine; Constance A. Harrington

2008-01-01

Four types of tree shelters were evaluated in southwestern Washington for their effects on seedling microenvironment and performance of two tree species. Shelter types were fine-mesh fabric shelters, solid-walled white shelters with and without vent holes, and solid-walled blue unvented shelters. Summer mean and daily maximum air temperatures were increased by 0.8 °C...

Recent variability in the Atlantic water intrusion and water masses in Kongsfjorden, an Arctic fjord

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divya, David T.; Krishnan, K. P.

2017-03-01

The present study reports high inter-annual variability in the water masses and in the intrusion of Atlantic origin waters in Kongsfjorden from 2000 to 2013 using both the historical (2000-2010 summers) and recent CTD measurements (2011-2013 summer/fall). An earlier intrusion of Atlantic Water (AW) into Kongsfjorden was observed in the contemporary years. An overall summertime subsurface warming is evident from the maximum September AW temperature in 2011 (4.8 °C), 2012 (5.8 °C) and 2013 (7 °C). The combination of a compensating surface flow to the subsurface intrusion of AW and the strong southeasterly surface winds during the peak summer, resulted in a corresponding net outflow of the surface fresh water layer from Kongsfjorden. This led to the decreased freshwater volume inside the fjord during 2013 (1 km3) compared to 2011 (3.1 km3) and 2012 (2.3 km3).

Changes in heat waves indices in Romania over the period 1961-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Piticar, Adrian; Ciupertea, Antoniu-Flavius; Roşca, Cristina Florina

2016-11-01

In the last two decades many climate change studies have focused on extreme temperatures as they have a significant impact on environment and society. Among the weather events generated by extreme temperatures, heat waves are some of the most harmful. The main objective of this study was to detect and analyze changes in heat waves in Romania based on daily observation data (maximum and minimum temperature) over the extended summer period (May-Sept) using a set of 10 indices and to explore the spatial patterns of changes. Heat wave data series were derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature data sets recorded in 29 weather stations across Romania over a 55-year period (1961-2015). In this study, the threshold chosen was the 90th percentile calculated based on a 15-day window centered on each calendar day, and for three baseline periods (1961-1990, 1971-2000, and 1981-2010). Two heat wave definitions were considered: at least three consecutive days when maximum temperature exceeds 90th percentile, and at least three consecutive days when minimum temperature exceeds 90th percentile. For each of them, five variables were calculated: amplitude, magnitude, number of events, duration, and frequency. Finally, 10 indices resulted for further analysis. The main results are: most of the indices have statistically significant increasing trends; only one index for one weather station indicated statistically significant decreasing trend; the changes are more intense in case of heat waves detected based on maximum temperature compared to those obtained for heat waves identified based on minimum temperature; western and central regions of Romania are the most exposed to increasing heat waves.

Short communication: Changes in body temperature of calves up to 2 months of age as affected by time of day, age, and ambient temperature.

PubMed

Hill, T M; Bateman, H G; Suarez-Mena, F X; Dennis, T S; Schlotterbeck, R L

2016-11-01

Extensive measurements of calf body temperature are limited in the literature. In this study, body temperatures were collected by taping a data logger to the skin over the tail vein opposing the rectum of Holstein calves between 4 and 60d of age during 3 different periods of the summer and fall. The summer period was separated into moderate (21-33°C average low to high) and hot (25-37°C) periods, whereas the fall exhibited cool (11-19°C) ambient temperatures. Tail temperatures were compared in a mixed model ANOVA using ambient temperature, age of calf, and time of day (10-min increments) as fixed effects and calf as a random effect. Measures within calf were modeled as repeated effects of type autoregressive 1. Calf temperature increased 0.0325°C (±0.00035) per 1°C increase in ambient temperature. Body temperature varied in a distinct, diurnal pattern with time of day, with body temperatures being lowest around 0800h and highest between 1700 and 2200h. During periods of hot weather, the highest calf temperature was later in the day (~2200h). Calf minimum, maximum, and average body temperatures were all higher in hot than in moderate periods and higher in moderate than in cool periods. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lethal and sub-lethal responses of the biogenic reef forming polychaete Sabellaria alveolata to aqueous chlorine and temperature.

PubMed

Last, K S; Hendrick, V J; Beveridge, C M; Roberts, D A; Wilding, T A

2016-06-01

Sabellaria alveolata, a reef-forming marine polychaete, was exposed to aqueous chlorine which is routinely used as an anti-fouling agent in power station cooling water. Worms were treated to a range of chlorination levels (0, 0.02, 0.1 and 0.5 mg l(-1) Total Residual Oxidant referred to as control, low, intermediate and high TRO) at mean and maximum summer temperatures (18 and 23 °C respectively). Overall mortality was relatively low, however a combination of high temperature and intermediate and high TRO resulted in a significant increase in mortality compared to the control and low TRO treatments. In contrast the extension of dwelling tubes was reduced at high TRO, but increased at low and intermediate TRO levels relative to the controls independent of temperature. Finally, tube strength was found to decrease with increasing TRO, again independent of temperature. On the basis of these findings, S. alveolata can be considered tolerant of one month exposures to low TRO at water temperatures up to and including the summer maxima for southern UK waters. However, at higher TRO levels and during warm weather, high mortality would be predicted. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Response of the Asian summer monsoons to idealized precession and obliquity forcing in a set of GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosmans, J. H. C.; Erb, M. P.; Dolan, A. M.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Tuenter, E.; Hilgen, F. J.; Edge, D.; Pope, J. O.; Lourens, L. J.

2018-05-01

We examine the response of the Indian and East Asian summer monsoons to separate precession and obliquity forcing, using a set of fully coupled high-resolution models for the first time: EC-Earth, GFDL CM2.1, CESM and HadCM3. We focus on the effect of insolation changes on monsoon precipitation and underlying circulation changes, and find strong model agreement despite a range of model physics, parameterization, and resolution. Our results show increased summer monsoon precipitation at times of increased summer insolation, i.e. minimum precession and maximum obliquity, accompanied by a redistribution of precipitation and convection from ocean to land. Southerly monsoon winds over East Asia are strengthened as a consequence of an intensified land-sea pressure gradient. The response of the Indian summer monsoon is less straightforward. Over south-east Asia low surface pressure is less pronounced and winds over the northern Indian Ocean are directed more westward. An Indian Ocean Dipole pattern emerges, with increased precipitation and convection over the western Indian Ocean. Increased temperatures occur during minimum precession over the Indian Ocean, but not during maximum obliquity when insolation is reduced over the tropics and southern hemisphere during northern hemisphere summer. Evaporation is reduced over the northern Indian Ocean, which together with increased precipitation over the western Indian Ocean dampens the increase of monsoonal precipitation over the continent. The southern tropical Indian Ocean as well as the western tropical Pacific (for precession) act as a moisture source for enhanced monsoonal precipitation. The models are in closest agreement for precession-induced changes, with more model spread for obliquity-induced changes, possibly related to a smaller insolation forcing. Our results indicate that a direct response of the Indian and East Asian summer monsoons to insolation forcing is possible, in line with speleothem records but in contrast to what most marine proxy climate records suggest.

Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, Saleem A.; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Al-Abadi, Alaa M.

2017-12-01

The existence of long-term persistence (LTP) in hydro-climatic time series can lead to considerable change in significance of trends. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider LTP became a disputable issue. A study has been conducted to assess the trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Iraq in recent years (1965-2015) using both ordinary Mann-Kendal (MK) test; and the modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can differentiate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. Trends in annual and seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature range (DTR), and 14 temperature-related extremes were assessed. MK test detected the significant increases in minimum and maximum temperature at all stations, where m-MK test detected at 86% and 80% of all stations, respectively. The temperature in Iraq is increasing 2 to 7 times faster than global temperature rise. The minimum temperature is increasing more (0.48-1.17 °C/decade) than maximum temperature (0.25-1.01 °C/decade). Temperature rise is higher in northern Iraq and in summer. The hot extremes particularly warm nights are increasing all over Iraq at a rate of 2.92-10.69 days/decade, respectively. On the other hand, numbers of cold days are decreasing at some stations at a rate of - 2.65 to - 8.40 days/decade. The use of m-MK test along with MK test confirms the significant increase in temperature and some of the temperature extremes in Iraq. This study suggests that trends in many temperature extremes in the region estimated in previous studies using MK test may be due to natural variability of climate, which empathizes the need for validation of the trends by considering LTP in time series.

[Analysis on concentration variety characteristics of atmospheric ozone under the boundary layer in Beijing].

PubMed

Zong, Xue-Mei; Wang, Geng-Chen; Chen, Hong-Bin; Wang, Pu-Cai; Xuan, Yue-Jian

2007-11-01

Based on the atmospheric ozone sounding data, the average monthly and seasonal variety principles of atmospheric ozone concentration during six years are analyzed under the boundary layer in Beijing. The results show that the monthly variation of atmospheric ozone are obvious that the minimum values appear in January from less than 10 x 10(-9) on ground to less than 50 x 10(-9) on upper layer (2 km), but the maximum values appear in June from 85 x 10(-9) on ground to more than 90 x 10(-9) on upper layer. The seasonal variation is also clear that the least atmospheric ozone concentration is in winter and the most is in summer, but variety from ground to upper layer is largest in winter and least in summer. According to the type of outline, the outline of ozone concentration is composite of three types which are winter type, summer type and spring-autumn type. The monthly ozone concentration in different heights is quite different. After analyzing the relationship between ozone concentration and meteorological factors, such as temperature and humidity, we find ozone concentration on ground is linear with temperature and the correlation coefficient is more than 85 percent.

Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rounds, Stewart A.

2010-01-01

Methods were developed to assess the effects of dams on streamflow and water temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries. These methods were used to estimate the flows and temperatures that would occur at 14 dam sites in the absence of upstream dams, and river models were applied to simulate downstream flows and temperatures under a no-dams scenario. The dams selected for this study include 13 dams built and operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) as part of the Willamette Project, and 1 dam on the Clackamas River owned and operated by Portland General Electric (PGE). Streamflows in the absence of upstream dams for 2001-02 were estimated for USACE sites on the basis of measured releases, changes in reservoir storage, a correction for evaporative losses, and an accounting of flow effects from upstream dams. For the PGE dam, no-project streamflows were derived from a previous modeling effort that was part of a dam-relicensing process. Without-dam streamflows were characterized by higher peak flows in winter and spring and much lower flows in late summer, as compared to with-dam measured flows. Without-dam water temperatures were estimated from measured temperatures upstream of the reservoirs (the USACE sites) or derived from no-project model results (the PGE site). When using upstream data to estimate without-dam temperatures at dam sites, a typical downstream warming rate based on historical data and downstream river models was applied over the distance from the measurement point to the dam site, but only for conditions when the temperature data indicated that warming might be expected. Regressions with measured temperatures from nearby or similar sites were used to extend the without-dam temperature estimates to the entire 2001-02 time period. Without-dam temperature estimates were characterized by a more natural seasonal pattern, with a maximum in July or August, in contrast to the measured patterns at many of the tall dam sites where the annual maximum temperature typically occurred in September or October. Without-dam temperatures also tended to have more daily variation than with-dam temperatures. Examination of the without-dam temperature estimates indicated that dam sites could be grouped according to the amount of streamflow derived from high-elevation, spring-fed, and snowmelt-driven areas high in the Cascade Mountains (Cougar, Big Cliff/Detroit, River Mill, and Hills Creek Dams: Group A), as opposed to flow primarily derived from lower-elevation rainfall-driven drainages (Group B). Annual maximum temperatures for Group A ranged from 15 to 20 degree(s)C, expressed as the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADM), whereas annual maximum 7dADM temperatures for Group B ranged from 21 to 25 degrees C. Because summertime stream temperature is at least somewhat dependent on the upstream water source, it was important when estimating without-dam temperatures to use correlations to sites with similar upstream characteristics. For that reason, it also is important to maintain long-term, year-round temperature measurement stations at representative sites in each of the Willamette River basin's physiographic regions. Streamflow and temperature estimates downstream of the major dam sites and throughout the Willamette River were generated using existing CE-QUAL-W2 flow and temperature models. These models, originally developed for the Willamette River water-temperature Total Maximum Daily Load process, required only a few modifications to allow them to run under the greatly reduced without-dam flow conditions. Model scenarios both with and without upstream dams were run. Results showed that Willamette River streamflow without upstream dams was reduced to levels much closer to historical pre-dam conditions, with annual minimum streamflows approximately one-half or less of dam-augmented levels. Thermal effects of the dams varied according to the time of year, from cooling in mid-summer to warm

Thermal conditions within tree cavities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests: potential implications for cavity users.

PubMed

Vierling, Kerri T; Lorenz, Teresa J; Cunningham, Patrick; Potterf, Kelsi

2018-04-01

Tree cavities provide critical roosting and breeding sites for multiple species, and thermal environments in these cavities are important to understand. Our objectives were to (1) describe thermal characteristics in cavities between June 3 and August 9, 2014, and (2) investigate the environmental factors that influence cavity temperatures. We placed iButtons in 84 different cavities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in central Washington, and took hourly measurements for at least 8 days in each cavity. Temperatures above 40 °C are generally lethal to developing avian embryos, and ~ 18% of the cavities had internal temperatures of ≥ 40 °C for at least 1 h of each day. We modeled daily maximum cavity temperature, the amplitude of daily cavity temperatures, and the difference between the mean internal cavity and mean ambient temperatures as a function of several environmental variables. These variables included canopy cover, tree diameter at cavity height, cavity volume, entrance area, the hardness of the cavity body, the hardness of the cavity sill (which is the wood below the cavity entrance which forms the barrier between the cavity and the external environment), and sill width. Ambient temperature had the largest effect size for maximum cavity temperature and amplitude. Larger trees with harder sills may provide more thermally stable cavity environments, and decayed sills were positively associated with maximum cavity temperatures. Summer temperatures are projected to increase in this region, and additional research is needed to determine how the thermal environments of cavities will influence species occupancy, breeding, and survival.

Thermal conditions within tree cavities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests: potential implications for cavity users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vierling, Kerri T.; Lorenz, Teresa J.; Cunningham, Patrick; Potterf, Kelsi

2017-11-01

Tree cavities provide critical roosting and breeding sites for multiple species, and thermal environments in these cavities are important to understand. Our objectives were to (1) describe thermal characteristics in cavities between June 3 and August 9, 2014, and (2) investigate the environmental factors that influence cavity temperatures. We placed iButtons in 84 different cavities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in central Washington, and took hourly measurements for at least 8 days in each cavity. Temperatures above 40 °C are generally lethal to developing avian embryos, and 18% of the cavities had internal temperatures of ≥ 40 °C for at least 1 h of each day. We modeled daily maximum cavity temperature, the amplitude of daily cavity temperatures, and the difference between the mean internal cavity and mean ambient temperatures as a function of several environmental variables. These variables included canopy cover, tree diameter at cavity height, cavity volume, entrance area, the hardness of the cavity body, the hardness of the cavity sill (which is the wood below the cavity entrance which forms the barrier between the cavity and the external environment), and sill width. Ambient temperature had the largest effect size for maximum cavity temperature and amplitude. Larger trees with harder sills may provide more thermally stable cavity environments, and decayed sills were positively associated with maximum cavity temperatures. Summer temperatures are projected to increase in this region, and additional research is needed to determine how the thermal environments of cavities will influence species occupancy, breeding, and survival.

Non-methane hydrocarbons at a high-altitude rural site in the Mediterranean (Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moschonas, Nektarios; Glavas, Sotirios

Acetylene, C 3-C 10 paraffins, olefins, aromatic hydrocarbons and the biogenic isoprene, were determined in six sampling periods from May to October in 1996-1997. The concentrations of the determined species were generally lower than those measured in southeastern US and western France, but higher than those measured in more remote regions. Acetylene and C 3-C 5 hydrocarbons exhibited seasonal variation with higher concentrations in the late October sampling period. The aromatic hydrocarbons, except benzene, exhibited maximum concentrations in the summer. Isoprene had maximum concentrations in the summer, with its concentration linearly increasing as a function of the logarithm of temperature, in agreement with past studies. Its emission flux was calculated to be on the lower end of similar studies in US. The main destruction route of all hydrocarbons was determined to be due to their photochemical reactions. The photochemical reactivity, calculated in terms of propylene equivalent concentration, was in the summer dominated by isoprene which accounts for 69% of the total, aromatics with 16%, olefins with 11% and paraffins with 4%. In the May and October periods, the aromatics contributed the most (˜37%) to the photochemical reactivity. Air mass back trajectories indicated higher concentrations when air masses arrived from northwestern and northeastern, compared to southern, directions.

Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe

PubMed Central

Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Tilinina, Natalia; Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib

2016-01-01

The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970–1999 and 2000–2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000–2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970–1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes. PMID:27573802

A montane Mediterranean climate supports year-round photosynthesis and high forest biomass.

PubMed

Kelly, Anne E; Goulden, Michael L

2016-04-01

The mid-elevation forest of California's Sierra Nevada poses a bioclimatic paradox. Mid-elevation trees experience a montane Mediterranean climate, with near-freezing winter days and rain-free summers. The asynchrony between warmth and water input suggests low primary production, limited by photosynthetic dormancy in winter cold, and again in summer and early autumn with drought, yet this forest is characterized by tall trees and high biomass. We used eddy covariance in a mid-elevation Sierra stand to understand how winter cold and summer drought limit canopy photosynthesis and production. The trees exhibited canopy photosynthesis year-round. Trees avoided winter dormancy, and daytime CO2uptake continued despite a deep snowpack and near-freezing temperatures. Photosynthesis on sunny days continued at half of maximum rates when air temperature was 0 °C. Likewise, the vegetation avoided summer drought dormancy, and high rates of daytime CO2uptake and transpiration continued despite a 5-month period with only negligible water input. We attribute this drought avoidance to deep rooting and availability of deep soil water. Year-round photosynthesis helps explain the large biomass observed in the Sierra Nevada, and implies adaptive strategies that may contribute to the resiliency or vulnerability of Sierran vegetation to climate change. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

[Tree-ring growth responses of Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) to climate change in southern northeast: a case study in Qianshan Mountains].

PubMed

Teng, Li; Xing-Yuan, He; Zhen-Ju, Chen

2014-07-01

Mongolian oak is one of the most important broad-leaved tree species in forests, Northeast China. Based on the methodology of dendrochronology, the variations of tree ring radial growth of Mongolian oak in Qianshan Mountains, south of Northeast China, were analyzed. Combined with the temperature and precipitation data from meteorological stations since 1951, the relationships between standardized tree ring width chronology and main climatic factors were analyzed. In this region, the precipitation between April and July of the current year had an significant relationship with the tree ring width of Mongolian oak, and was the main factor limiting the radial growth. The extreme maximum temperature of May was also a key factor influencing the tree ring width, which had a significant on the tree ring width of Mongolian oak. The precipitation in April had a significant and stable relationship with the growth of Mongolian oak since the 1950s. The 'divergence problem' was found in the study area, which the sensitivity of tree growth to summer temperature reduced since the 1980s. The tree growth response to temperature showed a seasonal change from summer to spring.

The slab thickness of the mid-latitude ionosphere.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Titheridge, J. E.

1973-01-01

The thickness of the peak of the ionosphere depends primarily on the temperature T sub n of the neutral gas, and corresponds approximately to an alpha-Chapman layer at a temperature of 0.87T sub n. The overall slab thickness, as given by Faraday rotation measurements, is then tau = 0.22T sub n + 7 km. Expansion of the topside ionosphere, and changes in the E- and F1-regions increase tau by about 20 km during the day in summer. Near solar minimum, tau is increased by a lowering of the O(+)/H(+) transition height; if the neutral temperature T sub n is estimated, this height can be obtained from observed values of tau. Hourly values of slab thickness were determined over a period of 6 yr at 34 and 42 S. Near solar maximum the nighttime values were about 260 km in all seasons. The corresponding neutral temperatures agree with satellite drag values; they show a semiannual variation of 14% and a seasonal change of 5%. Daytime values of tau were about 230 km in winter and 320 km in summer, implying a seasonal change of 30% in T sub n.

The Effect of the Ionosphere on Radiowave Signals and Systems Performance Based on Ionospheric Effects Symposium Held on 1-3 May 1990

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-05-03

winter and a minimum in summer ; in contrast, at sunspot maximum the seasonal peaks tend to occur around the equinoxes and the minima in summer . ’riis is...more clearly seen in Figures 4(b) ahnd 4(c). Note that around sunspot maximum the summer noon value may be less than the summer midnight value. (3) The...seasonal variation of the midnight values show summer peaks and winter minima with high values near the peaks of the sunspot cycles and low values

Beyond peak summer temperatures, branching corals in the Gulf of Aqaba are resilient to thermal stress but sensitive to high light

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellworthy, Jessica; Fine, Maoz

2017-12-01

Despite rapidly rising sea surface temperatures and recurrent positive temperature anomalies, corals in the Gulf of Aqaba (GoA) rarely experience thermal bleaching. Elsewhere, mass coral bleaching has been observed in corals when the water temperature exceeds 1-2 °C above the local maximum monthly mean (MMM). This threshold value or "bleaching rule" has been used to create predictive models of bleaching from satellite sea surface temperature observations, namely the "degree heating week" index. This study aimed to characterize the physiological changes of dominant reef building corals from the GoA in response to a temperature and light stress gradient. Coral collection and experiments began after a period of 14 consecutive days above MMM in the field. Stylophora pistillata showed negligible changes in symbiont and host physiology parameters after accumulating up to 9.4 degree heating weeks during peak summer temperatures, for which the index predicts widespread bleaching and some mortality. This result demonstrates acute thermal tolerance in S. pistillata from the GoA and deviation from the bleaching rule. In a second experiment after 4 weeks at 4 °C above peak summer temperatures, S. pistillata and Acropora eurystoma in the high-light treatment visibly paled and suffered greater midday and afternoon photoinhibition compared to corals under low-light conditions (35% of high-light treatment). However, light, not temperature (alone or in synergy with light), was the dominant factor in causing paling and the effective quantum yield of corals at 4 °C above ambient was indistinguishable from those in the ambient control. This result highlights the exceptional, atypical thermal tolerance of dominant GoA branching corals. Concomitantly, it validates the efficacy of protecting GoA reefs from local stressors if they are to serve as a coral refuge in the face of global sea temperature rise.

An approach of surface coal fire detection from ASTER and Landsat-8 thermal data: Jharia coal field, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Priyom; Guha, Arindam; Kumar, K. Vinod

2015-07-01

Radiant temperature images from thermal remote sensing sensors are used to delineate surface coal fires, by deriving a cut-off temperature to separate coal-fire from non-fire pixels. Temperature contrast of coal fire and background elements (rocks and vegetation etc.) controls this cut-off temperature. This contrast varies across the coal field, as it is influenced by variability of associated rock types, proportion of vegetation cover and intensity of coal fires etc. We have delineated coal fires from background, based on separation in data clusters in maximum v/s mean radiant temperature (13th band of ASTER and 10th band of Landsat-8) scatter-plot, derived using randomly distributed homogeneous pixel-blocks (9 × 9 pixels for ASTER and 27 × 27 pixels for Landsat-8), covering the entire coal bearing geological formation. It is seen that, for both the datasets, overall temperature variability of background and fires can be addressed using this regional cut-off. However, the summer time ASTER data could not delineate fire pixels for one specific mine (Bhulanbararee) as opposed to the winter time Landsat-8 data. The contrast of radiant temperature of fire and background terrain elements, specific to this mine, is different from the regional contrast of fire and background, during summer. This is due to the higher solar heating of background rocky outcrops, thus, reducing their temperature contrast with fire. The specific cut-off temperature determined for this mine, to extract this fire, differs from the regional cut-off. This is derived by reducing the pixel-block size of the temperature data. It is seen that, summer-time ASTER image is useful for fire detection but required additional processing to determine a local threshold, along with the regional threshold to capture all the fires. However, the winter Landsat-8 data was better for fire detection with a regional threshold.

A 650-year record of past summer temperatures from Pirin, Bulgaria tree-ring density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meko, M. D.; Trouet, V.; Panayotov, M.; Frank, D. C.

2017-12-01

New proxy records of past climate provide valuable data essential to enhance spatial and temporal coverage of the global paleoclimate record - the context against which ongoing climate change and climate-model forcing is examined and evaluated. We present a new 650-year record of past summer temperatures in southeastern (SE) Europe derived from tree-ring maximum-latewood-density (MXD) data measured from Bosnian pine (Pinus heldreichii) growing at high elevations in the Pirin Mountains, Bulgaria (PRN). The PRN collection is well-replicated, with 64 trees contributing MXD series ranging in length from 113 to 865 years (median series length = 480 years) spanning the years 1143-2009. The PRN chronology shows a significant (p < 0.05) relationship with summer (JAS) temperatures across a broad geographical area of SE Europe, including the entire Balkan peninsula, southern Italy, and southwestern Anatolia. Our temperature reconstruction, produced by multiple regression utilizing lagged predictors and calibrated against Sofia, Bulgaria meteorological observations, explains nearly 60% of target variance and reveals variability across decadal, centennial, and longer timescales over the 1350-2009 reconstruction interval. Relative to the instrumental 1900-1980 mean, our record shows multidecadal cool anomalies spanning the first half of the 19th century and the late 17th century, and warm periods spanning the 18th century, 16th and early-to-mid 17th centuries, and late 14th to early 15th century. A comparison of the PRN reconstruction with existing reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures reveal intervals of asynchrony between local and hemisphere-scale decadal temperature variability, with marked asynchrony in the late 16th-early 17th centuries, and unprecedented asynchrony in the late 20th-to early 21st century.

Blue intensity and density from northern Fennoscandian tree rings, exploring the potential to improve summer temperature reconstructions with earlywood information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Björklund, J. A.; Gunnarson, B. E.; Seftigen, K.; Esper, J.; Linderholm, H. W.

2014-04-01

Here we explore two new tree-ring parameters, derived from measurements of wood density and blue intensity (BI). The new proxies show an increase in the interannual summer temperature signal compared to established proxies, and present the potential to improve long-term performance. At high latitudes, where tree growth is mainly limited by low temperatures, radiodensitometric measurements of wood density, specifically maximum latewood density (MXD), provides a temperature proxy that is superior to that of tree-ring widths. The high cost of developing MXD has led to experimentation with a less expensive method using optical flatbed scanners to produce a new proxy, herein referred to as maximum latewood blue absorption intensity (abbreviated MXBI). MXBI is shown to be very similar to MXD on annual timescales but less accurate on centennial timescales. This is due to the fact that extractives, such as resin, stain the wood differentially from tree to tree and from heartwood to sapwood. To overcome this problem, and to address similar potential problems in radiodensitometric measurements, the new parameters Δblue intensity (ΔBI) and Δdensity are designed by subtracting the ambient BI/density in the earlywood, as a background value, from the latewood measurements. As a case-study, based on Scots pine trees from Northern Sweden, we show that Δdensity can be used as a quality control of MXD values and that the reconstructive performance of warm-season mean temperatures is more focused towards the summer months (JJA - June, July, August), with an increase by roughly 20% when also utilising the interannual information from the earlywood. However, even though the new parameter ΔBI experiences an improvement as well, there are still puzzling dissimilarities between Δdensity and ΔBI on multicentennial timescales. As a consequence, temperature reconstructions based on ΔBI will presently only be able to resolve information on decadal-to-centennial timescales. The possibility of trying to calibrate BI into a measure of lignin content or density, similarly to how radiographic measurements are calibrated into density, could be a solution. If this works, only then can ΔBI be used as a reliable proxy in multicentennial-scale climate reconstructions.

Evaluating Changes in Distributions of Summer Stream Temperature following Forest Harvest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, S. L.; Reiter, M.; Jones, J.

2016-12-01

Stream temperature heat budgets are influenced by numerous processes; changes in incoming radiation have been shown to be a major driver of increased stream temperatures. Maximum daily temperature is a commonly used metric for evaluating stream temperature responses to land use. However, single metrics are not able to fully represent the magnitude and duration of temperatures experienced by instream biota. Analyses that make use of all the data: a) more accurately characterize shifts in summer stream temperature regimes, b) quantify potential exposure to critical and non-critical temperatures, and c) help researchers and managers to better understand stream temperature responses to manipulation of streamside and watershed vegetation. Here we examine the distributions of summer stream temperatures before and after forest harvest in the Trask River Watershed Study, in northwestern Oregon. We studied 15 small streams for 10 years; half of the sites had their catchments clearcut harvested in 2012. Four sites had no buffers, with some leave trees, and three sites had 25 ft buffers on both sides. Temperatures were measured during at 30min intervals. Even though these streams are generally cold, we observed high spatial and temporal variation among sites and years, with some sites having normally distributed temperatures, while others showed skewed distributions and long tails. Forest cover, aspect or elevation were not good predictors of temperature distributions pre-harvest. Preliminary analyses using travel time of the stream water suggest that sites with hyporheic flows had narrower distributions of temperatures. After harvest, sites without buffers showed the greatest shift in distributions of temperatures and widest temperature ranges, while sites with narrow buffers showed little change. We are exploring the implications of shifts in temperature distributions before and after harvest against the known thermal tolerances for the dominant resident species (Ascaphus truei; tailed frog tadpoles) in these headwater streams. Rarely in forested mountain landscapes do stream temperatures exceed lethal thresholds for cold water biota; with these analyses, we are quantifying chronic exposure, which could subsequently result in shifts in phenology or community structure.

Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Chan; Wu, Peili; Zhang, Lixia; Song, Lianchun

2016-12-01

Global warming increases the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and consequently the potential risks of extreme rainfall. Here we show that maximum hourly summer rainfall intensity has increased by about 11.2% on average, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971-2013 from 721 weather stations in China. The corresponding event accumulated precipitation has on average increased by more than 10% aided by a small positive trend in events duration. Linear regression of the 95th percentile daily precipitation intensity with daily mean surface air temperature shows a negative scaling of -9.6%/K, in contrast to a positive scaling of 10.6%/K for hourly data. This is made up of a positive scaling below the summer mean temperature and a negative scaling above. Using seasonal means instead of daily means, we find a consistent scaling rate for the region of 6.7-7%/K for both daily and hourly precipitation extremes, about 10% higher than the regional Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 6.1%/K based on a mean temperature of 24.6 °C. With up to 18% further increase in extreme precipitation under continuing global warming towards the IPCC’s 1.5 °C target, risks of flash floods will exacerbate on top of the current incapability of urban drainage systems in a rapidly urbanizing China.

Synoptic-scale characteristics and atmospheric controls of summer heat waves in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiwen; Zhou, Wen; Li, Xiuzhen; Wang, Xin; Wang, Dongxiao

2016-05-01

Summer heat waves with persistent extreme high temperatures have been occurring with increasing frequency in recent decades. These extreme events have disastrous consequences for human health, economies, and ecosystems. In this study, we examine three summers with intense and protracted heat waves: the summers of 2003, 2006, and 2013, with high temperatures located mainly in southeastern, southwestern, and eastern China, respectively. The synoptic-scale characteristics of these heat waves and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies are investigated. In the early heat wave episode of 2003, a heat center was located in the southeast coastal provinces during the first 20 days of July. The maximum southward displacement of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) induced anticyclonic anomalies to the south, associated with southwestward intensification of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), and extreme high temperatures were found only to the south of the Yangtze River. In the later episode, a poleward displacement of the EAJS and an enhanced WNPSH over the midlatitudes of eastern China resulted in a "heat dome" over the region, and the heat wave extended northward to cover a larger area of eastern China. The coupling between the westward-enhanced WNPSH and poleward-displaced EAJS was found in the East China heat wave of 2013 as well. But the area of high temperatures reached far to the north in August 2013, with below-normal temperatures located in a small region of South China. In the 2006 southwestern drought and heat wave, extreme poleward displacement of the EAJS, associated with extraordinary westward extension of the WNSPH, resulted in further blocking of the moisture supply from the southwest monsoon. Large-scale moisture deficiencies, dry conditions, and downslope winds were common features of all investigated heat wave episodes. But in 2006, low-level heat lows associated with a well-mixed layer due to intensive daytime heating and atmospheric turbulence were emphasized.

Lidar measurements of mesospheric temperature inversion at a low latitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siva Kumar, V.; Bhavani Kumar, Y.; Raghunath, K.; Rao, P. B.; Krishnaiah, M.; Mizutani, K.; Aoki, T.; Yasui, M.; Itabe, T.

2001-08-01

The Rayleigh lidar data collected on 119 nights from March 1998 to February 2000 were used to study the statistical characteristics of the low latitude mesospheric temperature inversion observed over Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), India. The occurrence frequency of the inversion showed semiannual variation with maxima in the equinoxes and minima in the summer and winter, which was quite different from that reported for the mid-latitudes. The peak of the inversion layer was found to be confined to the height range of 73 to 79 km with the maximum occurrence centered around 76 km, with a weak seasonal dependence that fits well to an annual cycle with a maximum in June and a minimum in December. The magnitude of the temperature deviation associated with the inversion was found to be as high as 32 K, with the most probable value occurring at about 20 K. Its seasonal dependence seems to follow an annual cycle with a maximum in April and a minimum in October. The observed characteristics of the inversion layer are compared with that of the mid-latitudes and discussed in light of the current understanding of the source mechanisms.

Climate change and health: Indoor heat exposure in vulnerable populations☆

PubMed Central

White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; Sánchez, Brisa N.; Jolliet, Olivier; Zhang, Zhenzhen; Parker, Edith A.; Dvonch, J. Timothy; O'Neill, Marie S.

2015-01-01

Introduction Climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves and hot weather in many urban environments. Older people are more vulnerable to heat exposure but spend most of their time indoors. Few published studies have addressed indoor heat exposure in residences occupied by an elderly population. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between outdoor and indoor temperatures in homes occupied by the elderly and determine other predictors of indoor temperature. Materials and methods We collected hourly indoor temperature measurements of 30 different homes; outdoor temperature, dewpoint temperature, and solar radiation data during summer 2009 in Detroit, MI. We used mixed linear regression to model indoor temperatures’ responsiveness to weather, housing and environmental characteristics, and evaluated our ability to predict indoor heat exposures based on outdoor conditions. Results Average maximum indoor temperature for all locations was 34.85 °C, 13.8 °C higher than average maximum outdoor temperature. Indoor temperatures of single family homes constructed of vinyl paneling or wood siding were more sensitive than brick homes to outdoor temperature changes and internal heat gains. Outdoor temperature, solar radiation, and dewpoint temperature predicted 38% of the variability of indoor temperatures. Conclusions Indoor exposures to heat in Detroit exceed the comfort range among elderly occupants, and can be predicted using outdoor temperatures, characteristics of the housing stock and surroundings PMID:22071034

An assessment of precipitation and surface air temperature over China by regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xueyuan; Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu

2016-12-01

An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interannual variability, linear trends, and extremes are examined, with focus on precipitation and near surface air temperature. The models are able to reproduce the basic features of the observed summer mean precipitation and temperature over China and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. Overall, the model performance is better for temperature than that of precipitation. The models reasonably grasp the major anomalies and standard deviations over China and the five subregions studied. The models generally reproduce the spatial pattern of high interannual variability over wet regions, and low variability over the dry regions. The models also capture well the variable temperature gradient increase to the north by latitude. Both the observed and simulated linear trend of precipitation shows a drying tendency over the Yangtze River Basin and wetting over South China. The models capture well the relatively small temperature trends in large areas of China. The models reasonably simulate the characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of heavy rain days and heavy precipitation fraction. Most of the models also performed well in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China.

Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basha, Ghouse; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2015-10-01

In this study, we report for the first time, the upper air temperature climatology, and trends over the Middle East, which seem to be significantly affected by the changes associated with hot summer and low precipitation. Long term (1985-2012) radiosonde data from 12 stations are used to derive the mean temperature climatology and vertical trends. The study was performed by analyzing the data at different latitudes. The vertical profiles of air temperature show distinct behavior in terms of vertical and seasonal variability at different latitudes. The seasonal cycle of temperature at the 100 hPa, however, shows an opposite pattern compared to the 200 hPa levels. The temperature at 100 hPa shows a maximum during winter and minimum in summer. Spectral analysis shows that the annual cycle is dominant in comparison with the semiannual cycle. The time-series of temperature data was analyzed using the Bayesian change point analysis and cumulative sum method to investigate the changes in temperature trends. Temperature shows a clear change point during the year 1999 at all stations. Further, Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to study the vertical trend, and analysis shows statistically significant lower tropospheric warming and cooling in upper troposphere after the year 1999. In general, the magnitude of the trend decreases with altitude in the troposphere. In all the latitude bands in lower troposphere, significant warming is observed, whereas at higher altitudes cooling is noticed based on 28 years temperature observations over the Middle East.

Parameterization of the response of calcification to temperature and pCO2 in the coral Acropora pulchra and the alga Lithophyllum kotschyanum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comeau, S.; Carpenter, R. C.; Lantz, C. A.; Edmunds, P. J.

2016-09-01

The response of tropical corals and calcifying algae to ocean acidification (OA) and warming has received much attention in the past decade. However, most studies have evaluated the response of organisms to two or three temperature treatments, which does not allow the functional relationship between calcification and temperature under ambient and future pCO2 to be determined. This study tested the hypothesis that the relationship between calcification and temperature is affected by OA in the coral Acropora pulchra and the calcified alga Lithophyllum kotschyanum. Pieces of each organism were incubated under five (24-30 °C) or six (24-31.5 °C) temperatures crossed with two pCO2 levels (400 and 1000 μatm), and calcification was assessed in trials conducted in the spring and summer. The response of coral calcification to temperature was a positive asymmetric parabola with a maximum at ~28 °C under both pCO2 levels and in both seasons; the effects of pCO2 on calcification were largest at ~28 °C and lowest in both cool and warm temperatures. In contrast, calcification of the alga at both levels of pCO2 was unaffected by temperature in spring, but declined linearly with temperature in summer. This study demonstrates that the calcification response of coral reef organisms to the crossed effect of warming and OA is complex and cannot be fully assessed without using multiple temperature treatments that are ecologically relevant.

Characterization of shallow groundwater quality in the Lower St. Johns River Basin: a case study.

PubMed

Ouyang, Ying; Zhang, Jia-En; Parajuli, Prem

2013-12-01

Characterization of groundwater quality allows the evaluation of groundwater pollution and provides information for better management of groundwater resources. This study characterized the shallow groundwater quality and its spatial and seasonal variations in the Lower St. Johns River Basin, Florida, USA, under agricultural, forest, wastewater, and residential land uses using field measurements and two-dimensional kriging analysis. Comparison of the concentrations of groundwater quality constituents against the US EPA's water quality criteria showed that the maximum nitrate/nitrite (NO x ) and arsenic (As) concentrations exceeded the EPA's drinking water standard limits, while the maximum Cl, SO 4 (2-) , and Mn concentrations exceeded the EPA's national secondary drinking water regulations. In general, high kriging estimated groundwater NH 4 (+) concentrations were found around the agricultural areas, while high kriging estimated groundwater NO x concentrations were observed in the residential areas with a high density of septic tank distribution. Our study further revealed that more areas were found with high estimated NO x concentrations in summer than in spring. This occurred partially because of more NO x leaching into the shallow groundwater due to the wetter summer and partially because of faster nitrification rate due to the higher temperature in summer. Large extent and high kriging estimated total phosphorus concentrations were found in the residential areas. Overall, the groundwater Na and Mg concentration distributions were relatively more even in summer than in spring. Higher kriging estimated groundwater As concentrations were found around the agricultural areas, which exceeded the EPA's drinking water standard limit. Very small variations in groundwater dissolved organic carbon concentrations were observed between spring and summer. This study demonstrated that the concentrations of groundwater quality constituents varied from location to location, and impacts of land uses on groundwater quality variation were profound.

Climate Change in the Russian Altai Mountains and its Influence on Tree Line and Glacier Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syromyatina, M.; Moskalenko, I.; Ganushkin, D.; Chistyakov, K.

2011-12-01

The mountain ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate changes. The Russian Altai Mountains are located in the Inner Asia on the border of Russia, Mongolia, China and Kazakhstan. The Department of Geography and Geoecology of SPbSU has been organizing annual field expeditions to this region during the last 20 yrs. The uniqueness of the Altai landscapes lies in its great variety as these mountains are higher than 4 km and located on the zonal border between steppes and semi-deserts and between continental and sharply continental climates. This research deals with space-time features of regional climate changes and the dynamics of high-altitude landscapes. The 1940-2004 time series of seasonal air temperature and precipitation from 14 weather stations from 300 to 2600 m a.s.l. were statistically analyzed applying regression, correlation, spectral and cluster analyses. To extend time series over the past 350-400 yrs, mean summer temperature and precipitation were reconstructed applying dendroclimatological methods and using the WSL Dendro data base. Comparing to the Northern Hemisphere tendency of temperature increase in the second half of the 20th century over the Altai has been observed generally earlier, since 1950s. Maximum warming rate in the last quarter of the 20th century is typical to winter in the Altai (0,85°/10 yrs) as well as the entire Northern Hemisphere. Synchronous changes in the Altai and the Northern Hemisphere are observed in all seasons only in 1975-2004. At the turn of the XX-XXI centuries warming rates slow down in the region while temperature level is still high. These changes are partly associated with circulation epochs. Spectral analysis revealed important role of natural cyclical recurrence in climate changes, for example quasi-biennial, solar and Brückner cycles. According to dendrochronological reconstruction mean summer temperature increased from the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) to its maximum in the 1990s by approximately 2°C, to the average for the period 1986-2004 - about 1,3°C. As tree line against the other belt borders strongly limited by summer temperature its eventual dynamics since the end of the LIA over the Altai were estimated and tree line position at different stages of modern regional warming was reconstructed. Theoretical evaluation shows that mean summer temperature increase of 1.3°C from the end of the LIA causes tree line to rise maximum by 180-280 m in different localities of the Altai. Glacial complexes of mountain massifs Mongun-Taiga, Tavan-Boghd-Ola, Turgeni-Nuru and Harhira-Nuru located in the South-Eastern Altai are represented by small glaciers mostly on northern and eastern leeward slopes. Being situated in region with dry climatic conditions (250-400 mm/year) glaciers survive only in negative forms of relief with high concentration of snow. Accumulation coefficient is mainly from 2 to 3, and on cirque glaciers is from 6 to 8. Now glaciers retreat rapidly (17% of area loss for the period of 1995-2010 for Mongun-Taiga, 12% in 2002-2009 for Tavan-Boghd-Ola), especially valley glaciers (2-10 m/yr), the number of glaciers increase due to disintegration of larger glaciers. Small forms of glaciation disappear or transform into snow patches and rock glaciers.

A Data-Model Comparison over Europe using a new 2000-yr Summer Temperature Reconstruction from the PAGES 2k Regional Network and Last-Millennium GCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerdon, Jason; Werner, Johannes; Fernandez-Donado, Laura; Buntgen, Ulf; Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Esper, Jan; Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco, J.; Luterbacher, Juerg; McCarroll, Danny; Wagner, Sebastian; Wahl, Eugene; Wanner, Heinz; Zorita, Eduardo

2013-04-01

A new reconstruction of European summer (JJA) land temperatures is presented and compared to 37 forced transient simulations of the last millennium from coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). The reconstructions are derived from eleven annually resolved tree-ring and documentary records from ten European countries/regions, compiled as part of the Euro_Med working group contribution to the PAGES 2k Regional Network. Records were selected based upon their summer temperature signal, annual resolution, and time-continuous sampling. All tree-ring data were detrended using the Regional Curve Standardization (RCS) method to retain low-frequency variance in the resulting mean chronologies. A nested Composite-Plus-Scale (CPS) mean temperature reconstruction extending from 138 B.C.E. to 2003 C.E. was derived using nine nests reflecting the availability of predictors back in time. Each nest was calculated using a weighted composite based on the correlation of each proxy with the CRUTEM4v mean European JJA land temperature (35°-70°N, 10°W-40°E). The CPS methodology was implemented using a sliding calibration period, initially extending from 1850-1953 C.E. and incrementing by one year until reaching the final period of 1900-2003 C.E. Within each calibration step, the 50 years excluded from calibration were used for validation. Validation statistics across all reconstruction ensemble members within each nest indicate skillful reconstructions (RE: 0.42-0.64; CE: 0.26-0.54) and are all above the maximum validation statistics achieved in an ensemble of red noise benchmarking experiments. A gridded (5°x5°) European summer (JJA) temperature reconstruction back to 750 C.E. was derived using Bayesian inference together with a localized stochastic description of the underlying processes. Instrumental data are JJA means from the 5° European land grid cells in the CRUTEM4v dataset. Predictive experiments using the full proxy data were made, resulting in a multivariate distribution of temperature reconstructions from 750-2003 C.E. The mean of this distribution is the optimal estimate of the gridded JJA temperature anomalies and its width provides objective reconstruction uncertainties. The derived reconstruction is compared to withheld instrumental and proxy data to evaluate reconstruction skill on decadal-to-centennial time scales. A comparison between the mean Bayesian and CPS reconstructions indicates remarkable agreement, with a correlation during their period of overlap of 0.95. In both the Bayesian and CPS reconstructions, warm periods during the 1st, 2nd, and 7th-12th centuries compare to similar warm summer temperatures during the mid 20th century, although the 2003 summer remains the warmest single summer over the duration of the reconstructions. A relative period of cold summer temperatures is also noted from the 14th-19th centuries, consistent with the expected timing of the Little Ice Age. Comparisons between the reconstructions and the 37-member ensemble of millennium-length forced transient simulations from CGCMs, including eleven simulations from the collection of CMIP5/PMIP3 last-millennium experiments, indicate good regional agreement between reconstructions and models. Based on the separation of simulations into strong or weak scaling of total solar irradiance (TSI) forcing over the last millennium, there is some evidence that there is better agreement with the ensemble using strong TSI as forcing.

Estimation of Surface Air Temperature Over Central and Eastern Eurasia from MODIS Land Surface Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.

2011-01-01

Surface air temperature (T(sub a)) is a critical variable in the energy and water cycle of the Earth.atmosphere system and is a key input element for hydrology and land surface models. This is a preliminary study to evaluate estimation of T(sub a) from satellite remotely sensed land surface temperature (T(sub s)) by using MODIS-Terra data over two Eurasia regions: northern China and fUSSR. High correlations are observed in both regions between station-measured T(sub a) and MODIS T(sub s). The relationships between the maximum T(sub a) and daytime T(sub s) depend significantly on land cover types, but the minimum T(sub a) and nighttime T(sub s) have little dependence on the land cover types. The largest difference between maximum T(sub a) and daytime T(sub s) appears over the barren and sparsely vegetated area during the summer time. Using a linear regression method, the daily maximum T(sub a) were estimated from 1 km resolution MODIS T(sub s) under clear-sky conditions with coefficients calculated based on land cover types, while the minimum T(sub a) were estimated without considering land cover types. The uncertainty, mean absolute error (MAE), of the estimated maximum T(sub a) varies from 2.4 C over closed shrublands to 3.2 C over grasslands, and the MAE of the estimated minimum Ta is about 3.0 C.

Resolving the Strange Behavior of Extraterrestrial Potassium in the Upper Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plane, J. M. C.; Feng, W.; Dawkins, E.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Hoeffner, J.; Janches, D.; Marsh, D. R.

2014-01-01

It has been known since the 1960s that the layers of Na and K atoms, which occur between 80 and 105km in the Earth's atmosphere as a result of meteoric ablation, exhibit completely different seasonal behavior. In the extratropics Na varies annually, with a pronounced wintertime maximum and summertime minimum. However, K varies semiannually with a small summertime maximum and minima at the equinoxes. This contrasting behavior has never been satisfactorily explained. Here we use a combination of electronic structure and chemical kinetic rate theory to determine two key differences in the chemistries of K and Na. First, the neutralization of K+ ions is only favored at low temperatures during summer. Second, cycling between K and its major neutral reservoir KHCO3 is essentially temperature independent. A whole atmosphere model incorporating this new chemistry, together with a meteor input function, now correctly predicts the seasonal behavior of the K layer.

Climatic change on the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America) using two-step statistical downscaling of CMIP5 model outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribalaygua, Jaime; Gaitán, Emma; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert

2018-05-01

A two-step statistical downscaling method has been reviewed and adapted to simulate twenty-first-century climate projections for the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America, Pacific Coast) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models. The downscaling methodology is adjusted after looking for good predictor fields for this area (where the geostrophic approximation fails and the real wind fields are the most applicable). The method's performance for daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature is analysed and revealed suitable results for all variables. For instance, the method is able to simulate the characteristic cycle of the wet season for this area, which includes a mid-summer drought between two peaks. Future projections show a gradual temperature increase throughout the twenty-first century and a change in the features of the wet season (the first peak and mid-summer rainfall being reduced relative to the second peak, earlier onset of the wet season and a broader second peak).

Pricing the urban cooling benefits of solar panel deployment in Sydney, Australia

PubMed Central

Ma, S.; Goldstein, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Haghdadi, N.; MacGill, I.

2017-01-01

Cities import energy, which in combination with their typically high solar absorption and low moisture availability generates the urban heat island effect (UHI). The UHI, combined with human-induced warming, makes our densely populated cities particularly vulnerable to climate change. We examine the utility of solar photovoltaic (PV) system deployment on urban rooftops to reduce the UHI, and we price one potential value of this impact. The installation of PV systems over Sydney, Australia reduces summer maximum temperatures by up to 1 °C because the need to import energy is offset by local generation. This offset has a direct environmental benefit, cooling local maximum temperatures, but also a direct economic value in the energy generated. The indirect benefit associated with the temperature changes is between net AUD$230,000 and $3,380,000 depending on the intensity of PV systems deployment. Therefore, even very large PV installations will not offset global warming, but could generate enough energy to negate the need to import energy, and thereby reduce air temperatures. The energy produced, and the benefits of cooling beyond local PV installation sites, would reduce the vulnerability of urban populations and infrastructure to temperature extremes. PMID:28262843

Pricing the urban cooling benefits of solar panel deployment in Sydney, Australia.

PubMed

Ma, S; Goldstein, M; Pitman, A J; Haghdadi, N; MacGill, I

2017-03-06

Cities import energy, which in combination with their typically high solar absorption and low moisture availability generates the urban heat island effect (UHI). The UHI, combined with human-induced warming, makes our densely populated cities particularly vulnerable to climate change. We examine the utility of solar photovoltaic (PV) system deployment on urban rooftops to reduce the UHI, and we price one potential value of this impact. The installation of PV systems over Sydney, Australia reduces summer maximum temperatures by up to 1 °C because the need to import energy is offset by local generation. This offset has a direct environmental benefit, cooling local maximum temperatures, but also a direct economic value in the energy generated. The indirect benefit associated with the temperature changes is between net AUD$230,000 and $3,380,000 depending on the intensity of PV systems deployment. Therefore, even very large PV installations will not offset global warming, but could generate enough energy to negate the need to import energy, and thereby reduce air temperatures. The energy produced, and the benefits of cooling beyond local PV installation sites, would reduce the vulnerability of urban populations and infrastructure to temperature extremes.

Observed changes in extremes of daily rainfall and temperature in Jemma Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worku, Gebrekidan; Teferi, Ermias; Bantider, Amare; Dile, Yihun T.

2018-02-01

Climate variability has been a threat to the socio-economic development of Ethiopia. This paper examined the changes in rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature extremes of Jemma Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin for the period of 1981 to 2014. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, seasonal Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate annual trends. Ten rainfall and 12 temperature indices were used to study changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. The results showed an increasing trend of annual and summer rainfall in more than 78% of the stations and a decreasing trend of spring rainfall in most of the stations. An increase in rainfall extreme events was detected in the majority of the stations. Several rainfall extreme indices showed wetting trends in the sub-basin, whereas limited indices indicated dryness in most of the stations. Annual maximum and minimum temperature and extreme temperature indices showed warming trend in the sub-basin. Presence of extreme rainfall and a warming trend of extreme temperature indices may suggest signs of climate change in the Jemma Sub-Basin. This study, therefore, recommended the need for exploring climate induced risks and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

An analysis on the generation of Rossby waves and gravity waves in the MLT region based on satellite and whole atmosphere model data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasui, R.; Sato, K.; Miyoshi, Y.

2016-12-01

In the middle atmosphere, gravity waves (GWs), tides (TWs) and Rossby waves (RWs) are dominant. By interacting with the mean flow and driving the atmospheric global circulation, these waves maintain the thermal structure which is partly much different from that expected from a radiative balance. GWs are mainly generated in the troposphere and play important roles in the mesosphere. Planetary-scale RWs are dominant in the mesosphere, which are called quasi-two day waves in the summer hemisphere or 4-day waves in the winter hemisphere. However, the momentum budget of the middle atmosphere has not thoroughly examined particularly for the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). In this study, the momentum budget in the MLT region is examined in terms of respective contribution by these waves by using a satellite data and a whole atmosphere model data. Analyzed data are the temperature and geopotential height data from Aura MLS observation as a satellite data and the neutral atmosphere data from the Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA), which is a whole atmosphere model. The analyzed period is about 11 years from 8 August 2004 to 19 June 2015. For the RW component, EPFD is significantly positive in the summer mesosphere. Strong upward EPF above the positive EPFD region is extended up to 110 km in the lower thermosphere. By potential vorticity (PV) analysis, it seems that RWs associated with this strong upward EPF are radiated from the PV maximum in the summer mesosphere. This PV maximum is caused by increase in both static stability and relative vorticity due to parameterized GW forcing in GAIA model. Interestingly, there are significant resolved GW components having strong EPF and EPFD. In the summer MLT region, eastward GWs with downward EPF are dominant particularly above the PV maximum. The frequency of Richardson number (Ri) smaller than 1/4 is higher in this region, suggesting that the GW are generated by shear instability in the summer MLT region.

Testing the metabolic theory of ecology with marine bacteria: different temperature sensitivity of major phylogenetic groups during the spring phytoplankton bloom.

PubMed

Arandia-Gorostidi, Nestor; Huete-Stauffer, Tamara Megan; Alonso-Sáez, Laura; G Morán, Xosé Anxelu

2017-11-01

Although temperature is a key driver of bacterioplankton metabolism, the effect of ocean warming on different bacterial phylogenetic groups remains unclear. Here, we conducted monthly short-term incubations with natural coastal bacterial communities over an annual cycle to test the effect of experimental temperature on the growth rates and carrying capacities of four phylogenetic groups: SAR11, Rhodobacteraceae, Gammaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes. SAR11 was the most abundant group year-round as analysed by CARD-FISH, with maximum abundances in summer, while the other taxa peaked in spring. All groups, including SAR11, showed high temperature-sensitivity of growth rates and/or carrying capacities in spring, under phytoplankton bloom or post-bloom conditions. In that season, Rhodobacteraceae showed the strongest temperature response in growth rates, estimated here as activation energy (E, 1.43 eV), suggesting an advantage to outcompete other groups under warmer conditions. In summer E values were in general lower than 0.65 eV, the value predicted by the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE). Contrary to MTE predictions, carrying capacity tended to increase with warming for all bacterial groups. Our analysis confirms that resource availability is key when addressing the temperature response of heterotrophic bacterioplankton. We further show that even under nutrient-sufficient conditions, warming differentially affected distinct bacterioplankton taxa. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

United States Air Force Summer Faculty Research Program (1987). Program Technical Report. Volume 2.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-12-01

the area of statistical inference, distribution theory and stochastic * •processes. I have taught courses in random processes and sample % j .functions...controlled phase separation of isotropic, binary mixtures, the theory of spinodal decomposition has been developed by Cahn and Hilliard.5 ,6 This theory is...peak and its initial rate of growth at a given temperature are predicted by the spinodal theory . The angle of maximum intensity is then determined by

Characterizing the effect of summer temperature on heatstroke-related emergency ambulance dispatches in the Kanto area of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Ueda, Kayo; Ono, Masaji; Nitta, Hiroshi; Takami, Akinori

2014-07-01

Despite rising concern on the impact of heat on human health, the risk of high summer temperature on heatstroke-related emergency dispatches is not well understood in Japan. A time-series study was conducted to examine the association between apparent temperature and daily heatstroke-related ambulance dispatches (HSAD) within the Kanto area of Japan. A total of 12,907 HSAD occurring from 2000 to 2009 in five major cities—Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kawasaki, and Yokohama—were analyzed. Generalized additive models and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used to estimate the effects of daily maximum three-hour apparent temperature (AT) on dispatch frequency from May to September, with adjustment for seasonality, long-term trend, weekends, and public holidays. Linear and non-linear exposure effects were considered. Effects on days when AT first exceeded its summer median were also investigated. City-specific estimates were combined using random effects meta-analyses. Exposure-response relationship was found to be fairly linear. Significant risk increase began from 21 °C with a combined relative risk (RR) of 1.22 (95 % confidence interval, 1.03-1.44), increasing to 1.49 (1.42-1.57) at peak AT. When linear exposure was assumed, combined RR was 1.43 (1.37-1.50) per degree Celsius increment. Overall association was significant the first few times when median AT was initially exceeded in a particular warm season. More than two-thirds of these initial hot days were in June, implying the harmful effect of initial warming as the season changed. Risk increase that began early at the fairly mild perceived temperature implies the need for early precaution.

Characterizing the effect of summer temperature on heatstroke-related emergency ambulance dispatches in the Kanto area of Japan.

PubMed

Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Ueda, Kayo; Ono, Masaji; Nitta, Hiroshi; Takami, Akinori

2014-07-01

Despite rising concern on the impact of heat on human health, the risk of high summer temperature on heatstroke-related emergency dispatches is not well understood in Japan. A time-series study was conducted to examine the association between apparent temperature and daily heatstroke-related ambulance dispatches (HSAD) within the Kanto area of Japan. A total of 12,907 HSAD occurring from 2000 to 2009 in five major cities-Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kawasaki, and Yokohama-were analyzed. Generalized additive models and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used to estimate the effects of daily maximum three-hour apparent temperature (AT) on dispatch frequency from May to September, with adjustment for seasonality, long-term trend, weekends, and public holidays. Linear and non-linear exposure effects were considered. Effects on days when AT first exceeded its summer median were also investigated. City-specific estimates were combined using random effects meta-analyses. Exposure-response relationship was found to be fairly linear. Significant risk increase began from 21 °C with a combined relative risk (RR) of 1.22 (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.44), increasing to 1.49 (1.42-1.57) at peak AT. When linear exposure was assumed, combined RR was 1.43 (1.37-1.50) per degree Celsius increment. Overall association was significant the first few times when median AT was initially exceeded in a particular warm season. More than two-thirds of these initial hot days were in June, implying the harmful effect of initial warming as the season changed. Risk increase that began early at the fairly mild perceived temperature implies the need for early precaution.

Modeling tree growth and stable isotope ratios of white spruce in western Alaska.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucher, Etienne; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Field, Robert; Oelkers, Rose; D'Arrigo, Rosanne

2017-04-01

Summer temperatures are assumed to exert a dominant control on physiological processes driving forest productivity in interior Alaska. However, despite the recent warming of the last few decades, numerous lines of evidence indicate that the enhancing effect of summer temperatures on high latitude forest populations has been weakening. First, satellite-derived indices of photosynthetic activity, such as the Normalized-Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, 1982-2005), show overall declines in productivity in the interior boreal forests. Second, some white spruce tree ring series strongly diverge from summer temperatures during the second half of the 20th century, indicating a persistent loss of temperature sensitivity of tree ring proxies. Thus, the physiological response of treeline forests to ongoing climate change cannot be accurately predicted, especially from correlation analysis. Here, we make use of a process-based dendroecological model (MAIDENiso) to elucidate the complex linkages between global warming and increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] with the response of treeline white spruce stands in interior Alaska (Seward). In order to fully capture the array of processes controlling tree growth in the area, multiple physiological indicators of white spruce productivity are used as target variables: NDVI images, ring widths (RW), maximum density (MXD) and newly measured carbon and oxygen stable isotope ratios from ring cellulose. Based on these data, we highlight the processes and mechanisms responsible for the apparent loss of sensitivity of white spruce trees to recent climate warming and [CO2] increase in order to elucidate the sensitivity and vulnerability of these trees to climate change.

River Temperature Dynamics and Habitat Characteristics as Predictors of Salmonid Abundance using Fiber-Optic Distributed Temperature Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gryczkowski, L.; Gallion, D.; Haeseker, S.; Bower, R.; Collier, M.; Selker, J. S.; Scherberg, J.; Henry, R.

2011-12-01

Salmonids require cool water for all life stages, including spawning and growth. Excessive water temperature causes reduced growth and increased disease and mortality. During the summer, salmonids seek local zones of cooler water as a refuge from elevated temperatures. They also prefer specific habitat features such as boulders and overhanging vegetation. The purpose of this study is to determine whether temperature dynamics or commonly measured fish habitat metrics best explain salmonid abundance. The study site was a 2-kilometer reach of the Walla Walla River near Milton-Freewater, OR, USA, which provides habitat for the salmonids chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), steelhead/rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni), and the endangered bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). The Walla Walla River is listed as an impaired water body under section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act due to temperature. The associated total maximum daily load (TMDL) calls for temperatures to be below 18 °C at all times for salmonid rearing and migration; however, river temperatures surpassed 24 °C in parts of the study reach in 2009. The two largest factors contributing to the warmer water are reduced riparian vegetation, which decreases shading and increases direct solar radiation, and decreased summer flows caused by diversions and irrigation for agriculture. Fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing has emerged as a unique and powerful tool for ecological applications because of its high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, meter-scale temperature measurements were obtained at 15-minute intervals along the length of the study reach, allowing for the detection and quantification of cold water inflows during the summer of 2009. The cold water inflows were classified as groundwater or hyporheic sources based on the diurnal temperature patterns. Snorkel surveys were conducted in mid-July and mid-August, 2009 to enumerate salmonid abundance in 23 pools. Fish habitat metrics were quantified for each pool by visual estimation. Regression analysis suggests that temperature-related variables explain fish abundance better than habitat variables, and that salmonids' affinity for cold water refuge may be enhanced following periods of high temperature approaching the lethal threshold.

Austrian glaciers in historical documents of the last 400 years: implications for historical hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Andrea; Seiser, Bernd

2014-05-01

First documentations of Austrian glaciers date from as early as 1601. Early documentations were triggered by glacier advances that created glacier-dammed lakes that caused floods whenever the dam collapsed . Since then, Austrian glaciers have been documented in drawings, descriptions and later on in maps and photography. These data are stored in historical archives but today only partly exploited for historical glaciology. They are of special interest for historical hydrology in glacier-covered basins, as the extent of the snow, firn and ice cover and its elevation affect the hydrological response of the basin to precipitation events in several ways: - Firn cover: the more area is covered by firn, the higher is the capacity for retention or even refreezing of liquid precipitation and melt water. - Ice cover: the area covered by glaciers can be affected by melt and contributes to a peak discharge on summer afternoons. - Surface elevation and temperatures: in case of precipitation events, the lower surface temperatures and higher surface elevation of the glaciers compared to ice-free ground have some impact on the capacity to store precipitation. - Glacier floods: for the LIA maximum around 1850, a number of advancing glaciers dammed lakes which emptied during floods. These parameters show different variability with time: glacier area varies only by about 60% to 70% between the LIA maximum and today. The variability of the maximum meltwater peak changes much more than the area. Even during the LIA maximum, several years were extremely warm, so that more than twice the size of today's glacier area was subject to glacier melt. The minimum elevations of large glaciers were several hundred meters lower than today, so that in terms of today's summer mean temperatures, the melt water production from ice ablation would have been much higher than today. A comparison of historical glacier images and description with today's makes it clear that the extent of the snow cover and thus the albedo of the glacier surface has been highly variable. This has significant impact on the meltwater production. These historical glacier data complement the first available runoff data from the early 20th century taken close to the glacier tongues.

A 2000-year European Mean Summer Temperature Reconstruction from the PAGES 2k Regional Network and Comparison to Millennium-Length Forced Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerdon, J. E.; Büntgen, U.; Ljungqvist, F. C.; Esper, J.; Fernández-Donado, L.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F. J.; Luterbacher, J.; McCarroll, D.; Wagner, S.; Wahl, E. R.; Wanner, H.; Werner, J.; Zorita, E.

2012-12-01

A reconstruction of mean European summer (JJA) land temperatures from 138 B.C.E. to 2003 C.E. is presented and compared to 37 forced transient simulations of the last millennium from coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). Eleven annually resolved tree-ring and documentary records from ten European countries/regions were used for the reconstruction and compiled as part of the Euro_Med working group contribution to the PAGES 2k Regional Network. Records were selected based upon their summer temperature signal, annual resolution, and time-continuous sampling. All tree-ring data were detrended using the Regional Curve Standardization (RCS) method to retain low-frequency variance in the resulting mean chronologies. The calibration time series was the area-weighted JJA temperature computed from the CRUTEM4v dataset over a European land domain (35°-70°N, 10°W-40°E). A nested 'Composite-Plus-Scale' reconstruction was derived using nine nests reflecting the availability of predictors back in time. Each nest was calculated by standardizing the available predictor series over the calibration interval, and subsequently calculating a weighted composite in which each proxy was multiplied by its correlation with the target index. The CPS methodology was implemented using a resampling scheme that uses 104 years for calibration. The initial calibration period extended from 1850-1953 C.E. and was incremented by one year until reaching the final period of 1900-2003 C.E., yielding a total of 51 reconstructions for each nest. Within each calibration step, the 50 years excluded from calibration were used for validation. Validation statistics across all reconstruction ensemble members within each nest indicate skillful reconstructions (RE: 0.42-0.64; CE: 0.26-0.54) and are all above the maximum validation statistics achieved in an ensemble of red noise benchmarking experiments. Warm periods in the derived reconstruction during the 1st, 2nd, and 7th-12th centuries compare to similar warm summer temperatures during the mid 20th century, although the 2003 summer remains the warmest single summer over the duration of the reconstruction. A relative period of cold summer temperatures is also noted from the 14th-19th centuries, consistent with the expected timing of the Little Ice Age. The nested CPS reconstruction is also compared to a 37-member ensemble of millennium-length forced transient simulations from CGCMs, including eleven simulations from the collection of CMIP5/PMIP3 last-millennium experiments. The simulations are separated based on their use of strong or weak scaling of total solar irradiance (TSI) forcing over the last millennium. Although both ensembles of simulated mean European temperatures compare well with the nested CPS reconstruction, there is some evidence that there is better agreement with the ensemble using strong TSI as forcing.

Has the Temperature Climate of the United States Become More Extreme?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, L. E.; Kunkel, K.; Vose, R. S.; Knight, R. W.

2014-12-01

Extreme heat has affected parts of the United States during recent summers, particularly 2011 and 2012. Severe cold has also occurred in recent years. This has created a perception that the temperature climate of the U.S. has become more extreme. Is this the case? We address this question by computing probability distribution functions (PDFs) for each season and evaluating temporal changes for the 20th and early 21st centuries using a new gridded monthly temperature data set. We examine changes in the mean, width, and shape of the PDFs for seven U.S. regions, as defined in the third National Climate Assessment. During the past 2-3 decades, there has been a shift toward more frequent very warm months, but this has been accompanied by a decrease in the occurrence of very cold months. Thus, overall we determine that the temperature climate of the U.S. has not become more extreme. The 1930s were an earlier period of frequent very warm months, but this was primarily a result of very warm daytime temperatures, while the occurrence of months with very high nighttime temperatures was not unusually large during that period. There are important regional variations in these results. In particular, the shift to more frequent very warm months is not predominant in the southeast U.S. annually or in parts of the central U.S. in the summer. This lack of warming is a feature of daytime maximum temperature, not nighttime minimum temperature.

Modeling the effects of climate on date palm scale ( Parlatoria blanchardi) population dynamics during different phenological stages of life history under hot arid conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idder-Ighili, Hakima; Idder, Mohamed Azzedine; Doumandji-Mitiche, Bahia; Chenchouni, Haroun

2015-10-01

The date palm scale (DPS) Parlatoria blanchardi is a serious pest due to the damage it inflicts on its host tree ( Phoenix dactylifera). To develop an effective control against DPS in arid regions, it is essential to know its bio-ecology including population dynamics and climatic factors influencing the duration and timing of life history and also the densities of different phenological stages (crawlers, first and second instars nymphs, adult males, and adult females). Monitoring of biological cycle and population dynamics of the pest were achieved through weekly counts of DPS densities on leaflets sampled at different position of date palm trees in an oasis of Ouargla region (Algerian Sahara Desert). Within this hyper-arid region, DPS established four generations per year, the most important was the spring generation. Two overlapping generations occurred in spring-early summer and two in autumn-early winter; these two pairs of generations were interspersed by two phases of high-mortality rates, the first corresponds to winter cold and the second refers to the extreme heat of summer. Statistical analysis of the effects of the studied climatic conditions (minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind, rain days, and climatic indices) on the DPS densities at different phenological stages showed great variability from one stage to another. Among these, adult females were the most affected by climate factors. For the total DPS population, high values of minimum temperatures negatively affected population density, while high maximum temperatures, hygrometry, and De Martonne aridity index showed a positive influence.

Modeling the effects of climate on date palm scale (Parlatoria blanchardi) population dynamics during different phenological stages of life history under hot arid conditions.

PubMed

Idder-Ighili, Hakima; Idder, Mohamed Azzedine; Doumandji-Mitiche, Bahia; Chenchouni, Haroun

2015-10-01

The date palm scale (DPS) Parlatoria blanchardi is a serious pest due to the damage it inflicts on its host tree (Phoenix dactylifera). To develop an effective control against DPS in arid regions, it is essential to know its bio-ecology including population dynamics and climatic factors influencing the duration and timing of life history and also the densities of different phenological stages (crawlers, first and second instars nymphs, adult males, and adult females). Monitoring of biological cycle and population dynamics of the pest were achieved through weekly counts of DPS densities on leaflets sampled at different position of date palm trees in an oasis of Ouargla region (Algerian Sahara Desert). Within this hyper-arid region, DPS established four generations per year, the most important was the spring generation. Two overlapping generations occurred in spring-early summer and two in autumn-early winter; these two pairs of generations were interspersed by two phases of high-mortality rates, the first corresponds to winter cold and the second refers to the extreme heat of summer. Statistical analysis of the effects of the studied climatic conditions (minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind, rain days, and climatic indices) on the DPS densities at different phenological stages showed great variability from one stage to another. Among these, adult females were the most affected by climate factors. For the total DPS population, high values of minimum temperatures negatively affected population density, while high maximum temperatures, hygrometry, and De Martonne aridity index showed a positive influence.

Evidence of nonlinear interaction between quasi 2 day wave and quasi-stationary wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Sheng-Yang; Liu, Han-Li; Li, Tao; Dou, Xiankang; Wu, Qian; Russell, James M.

2015-02-01

The nonlinear interaction between the westward quasi 2 day wave (QTDW) with zonal wave number s = 3 (W3) and stationary planetary wave with s = 1 (SPW1) is first investigated using both Thermosphere, Ionosphere, and Mesosphere Electric Dynamics (TIMED) satellite observations and the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) simulations. A QTDW with westward s = 2 (W2) is identified in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region in TIMED/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature and TIMED/TIMED Doppler Imager (TIDI) wind observations during 2011/2012 austral summer period, which coincides with a strong SPW1 episode at high latitude of the northern winter hemisphere. The temperature perturbation of W2 QTDW reaches a maximum amplitude of ~8 K at ~30°S and ~88 km in the Southern Hemisphere, with a smaller amplitude in the Northern Hemisphere at similar latitude and minimum amplitude at the equator. The maximum meridional wind amplitude of the W2 QTDW is observed to be ~40 m/s at 95 km in the equatorial region. The TIME-GCM is utilized to simulate the nonlinear interactions between W3 QTDW and SPW1 by specifying both W3 QTDW and SPW1 perturbations at the lower model boundary. The model results show a clear W2 QTDW signature in the MLT region, which agrees well with the TIMED/SABER temperature and TIMED/TIDI horizontal wind observations. We conclude that the W2 QTDW during the 2011/2012 austral summer period results from the nonlinear interaction between W3 QTDW and SPW1.

High Arctic summer warming tracked by increased Cassiope tetragona growth in the world's northernmost polar desert.

PubMed

Weijers, Stef; Buchwal, Agata; Blok, Daan; Löffler, Jörg; Elberling, Bo

2017-11-01

Rapid climate warming has resulted in shrub expansion, mainly of erect deciduous shrubs in the Low Arctic, but the more extreme, sparsely vegetated, cold and dry High Arctic is generally considered to remain resistant to such shrub expansion in the next decades. Dwarf shrub dendrochronology may reveal climatological causes of past changes in growth, but is hindered at many High Arctic sites by short and fragmented instrumental climate records. Moreover, only few High Arctic shrub chronologies cover the recent decade of substantial warming. This study investigated the climatic causes of growth variability of the evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona between 1927 and 2012 in the northernmost polar desert at 83°N in North Greenland. We analysed climate-growth relationships over the period with available instrumental data (1950-2012) between a 102-year-long C. tetragona shoot length chronology and instrumental climate records from the three nearest meteorological stations, gridded climate data, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices. July extreme maximum temperatures (JulT emx ), as measured at Alert, Canada, June NAO, and previous October AO, together explained 41% of the observed variance in annual C. tetragona growth and likely represent in situ summer temperatures. JulT emx explained 27% and was reconstructed back to 1927. The reconstruction showed relatively high growing season temperatures in the early to mid-twentieth century, as well as warming in recent decades. The rapid growth increase in C. tetragona shrubs in response to recent High Arctic summer warming shows that recent and future warming might promote an expansion of this evergreen dwarf shrub, mainly through densification of existing shrub patches, at High Arctic sites with sufficient winter snow cover and ample water supply during summer from melting snow and ice as well as thawing permafrost, contrasting earlier notions of limited shrub growth sensitivity to summer warming in the High Arctic. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Summer diapause induced by high temperatures in the oriental tobacco budworm: ecological adaptation to hot summers.

PubMed

Liu, Zhudong; Xin, Yucui; Zhang, Yanan; Fan, Jianting; Sun, Jianghua

2016-06-07

Summer diapause in Helicoverpa assulta (Hübner), which prolongs the pupal stage, particularly in males, is induced by high temperatures. In the laboratory, 3(rd)-, 4(th)-, 6(th)-instar and prepupal larvae were exposed to high temperatures - 33 and 35 °C with a photoperiod of LD16:8 - until pupation to induce summer diapause. The results showed that the incidence of summer diapause was influenced by temperature, stage exposed, and sex. The higher the temperature, the more often summer diapause was attained. Sixth-instar and prepupal larvae were the sensitive stages for summer diapause induction. H. assulta summer-diapausing pupae needed diapause development to resume development when temperatures became favorable. Furthermore, both body mass and energy storage capacity (lipid and glycogen) were significantly affected by diapause rather than sex, and were significantly higher in summer-diapausing pupae than in non-diapausing pupae. In addition, the body mass loss and respiration rate showed that the rate of metabolism in the summer-diapausing pupae was consistently lower than in non-diapausing pupae, which were significantly affected by diapause and pupal age. We conclude that summer diapause in H. assulta is a true diapause, and H. assulta has evolved mechanisms to accumulate energy storage and to lower its metabolism to adapt to hot summers.

Early meteorological results from the viking 2 lander.

PubMed

Hess, S L; Henry, R M; Leovy, C B; Mitchell, J L; Ryan, J A; Tillman, J E

1976-12-11

Early results from the meteorological instruments on the Viking 2 lander are presented. As on lander 1, the daily patterns of temperature, wind, and pressure have been highly repetitive during the early summer period. The average daily maximum temperature was 241 degrees K and the diurnal minimum was 191 degrees K. The wind has a vector mean of 0.7 meter per second from the southeast with a diurnal amplitude of 3 meters per second. Pressure exhibits both diurnal and semidiurnal oscillations, although of substantially smaller amplitude than those of lander 1. Departures from the repetitive diurnal patterns begin to appear on sol 37.

Climate change and health: Indoor heat exposure in vulnerable populations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White-Newsome, Jalonne L., E-mail: jalonne@umich.edu; Sanchez, Brisa N., E-mail: brisa@umich.edu; Jolliet, Olivier, E-mail: ojolliet@umich.edu

2012-01-15

Introduction: Climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves and hot weather in many urban environments. Older people are more vulnerable to heat exposure but spend most of their time indoors. Few published studies have addressed indoor heat exposure in residences occupied by an elderly population. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between outdoor and indoor temperatures in homes occupied by the elderly and determine other predictors of indoor temperature. Materials and methods: We collected hourly indoor temperature measurements of 30 different homes; outdoor temperature, dewpoint temperature, and solar radiation data during summer 2009 inmore » Detroit, MI. We used mixed linear regression to model indoor temperatures' responsiveness to weather, housing and environmental characteristics, and evaluated our ability to predict indoor heat exposures based on outdoor conditions. Results: Average maximum indoor temperature for all locations was 34.85 Degree-Sign C, 13.8 Degree-Sign C higher than average maximum outdoor temperature. Indoor temperatures of single family homes constructed of vinyl paneling or wood siding were more sensitive than brick homes to outdoor temperature changes and internal heat gains. Outdoor temperature, solar radiation, and dewpoint temperature predicted 38% of the variability of indoor temperatures. Conclusions: Indoor exposures to heat in Detroit exceed the comfort range among elderly occupants, and can be predicted using outdoor temperatures, characteristics of the housing stock and surroundings to improve heat exposure assessment for epidemiological investigations. Weatherizing homes and modifying home surroundings could mitigate indoor heat exposure among the elderly.« less

Cool North European summers and possible links to explosive volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, P. D.; Melvin, T. M.; Harpham, C.; Grudd, H.; Helama, S.

2013-06-01

Exactly dated tree-ring measurements such as ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD), which are sensitive to summer temperatures, can provide possible routes to investigate the occurrence of hemispheric-wide cool summers that might be linked to explosive tropical volcanic eruptions. These measurements can provide much longer records than the instrumental period, enabling much longer periods to be assessed and offers the potential to look at much larger eruptions than recorded over the last 200 years. This paper looks at TRW evidence from Northern Fennoscandia extending over the last 7500 years, using two independently produced chronologies from northern Sweden and northern Finland. TRW is less responsive than MXD to cool summer temperatures, but MXD is only available for the last 2000 years. Additionally, looking at a relatively small location, compared to the Northern Hemisphere average, adds considerable noise. Progress in this area is likely to be made by developing more millennial-long TRW series across northern high latitudes or being able to develop MXD series from the sub-fossil material, which comprises most of the samples prior to the last 1000 years. The three most extreme negative values for the region for the last 2000 years are 1601, 542, and 1837, although the latter is not extreme in a long instrumental record for the region. The most extreme year of all occurred in 330BC. Of the 20 most extreme negative years, nine occurred during the AD years with the remaining 11 occurring during the prior 5500 years.

Activation of AMP-activated protein kinase in response to temperature elevation shows seasonal variation in the zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha.

PubMed

Jost, Jennifer A; Keshwani, Sarah S; Abou-Hanna, Jacob J

2015-04-01

Global climate change is affecting ectothermic species, and a variety of studies are needed on thermal tolerances, especially from cellular and physiological perspectives. This study utilized AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK), a key regulator of cellular energy levels, to examine the effects of high water temperatures on zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) physiology. During heating, AMPK activity increased as water temperature increased to a point, and maximum AMPK activity was detected at high, but sublethal, water temperatures. This pattern varied with season, suggesting that cellular mechanisms of seasonal thermal acclimatization affect basic metabolic processes during sublethal heat stress. There was a greater seasonal variation in the water temperature at which maximum AMPK activity was measured than in lethal water temperature. Furthermore, baseline AMPK activity varied significantly across seasons, most likely reflecting altered metabolic states during times of growth and reproduction. In addition, when summer-collected mussels were lab-acclimated to winter and spring water temperatures, patterns of heat stress mirrored those of field-collected animals. These data suggest that water temperature is the main driver of the seasonal variation in physiology. This study concluded that AMPK activity, which reflects changes in energy supply and demand during heat stress, can serve as a sensitive and early indicator of temperature stress in mussels. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tempo-Spatial Variations of Ambient Ozone-Mortality Associations in the USA: Results from the NMMAPS Data.

PubMed

Liu, Tao; Zeng, Weilin; Lin, Hualiang; Rutherford, Shannon; Xiao, Jianpeng; Li, Xing; Li, Zhihao; Qian, Zhengmin; Feng, Baixiang; Ma, Wenjun

2016-08-26

Although the health effects of ambient ozone have been widely assessed, their tempo-spatial variations remain unclear. We selected 20 communities (ten each from southern and northern USA) based on the US National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) dataset. A generalized linear model (GLM) was used to estimate the season-specific association between each 10 ppb (lag0-2 day average) increment in daily 8 h maximum ozone concentration and mortality in every community. The results showed that in the southern communities, a 10 ppb increment in ozone was linked to an increment of mortality of -0.07%, -0.17%, 0.40% and 0.27% in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. For the northern communities, the excess risks (ERs) were 0.74%, 1.21%, 0.52% and -0.65% in the spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons, respectively. City-specific ozone-related mortality effects were positively related with latitude, but negatively related with seasonal average temperature in the spring, summer and autumn seasons. However, a reverse relationship was found in the winter. We concluded that there were different seasonal patterns of ozone effects on mortality between southern and northern US communities. Latitude and seasonal average temperature were identified as modifiers of the ambient ozone-related mortality risks.

Tempo-Spatial Variations of Ambient Ozone-Mortality Associations in the USA: Results from the NMMAPS Data

PubMed Central

Liu, Tao; Zeng, Weilin; Lin, Hualiang; Rutherford, Shannon; Xiao, Jianpeng; Li, Xing; Li, Zhihao; Qian, Zhengmin; Feng, Baixiang; Ma, Wenjun

2016-01-01

Although the health effects of ambient ozone have been widely assessed, their tempo-spatial variations remain unclear. We selected 20 communities (ten each from southern and northern USA) based on the US National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) dataset. A generalized linear model (GLM) was used to estimate the season-specific association between each 10 ppb (lag0-2 day average) increment in daily 8 h maximum ozone concentration and mortality in every community. The results showed that in the southern communities, a 10 ppb increment in ozone was linked to an increment of mortality of −0.07%, −0.17%, 0.40% and 0.27% in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. For the northern communities, the excess risks (ERs) were 0.74%, 1.21%, 0.52% and −0.65% in the spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons, respectively. City-specific ozone-related mortality effects were positively related with latitude, but negatively related with seasonal average temperature in the spring, summer and autumn seasons. However, a reverse relationship was found in the winter. We concluded that there were different seasonal patterns of ozone effects on mortality between southern and northern US communities. Latitude and seasonal average temperature were identified as modifiers of the ambient ozone-related mortality risks. PMID:27571094

Observational characteristics of the tropopause inversion layer derived from CHAMP/GRACE radio occultations and MOZAIC aircraft data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, T.; Cammas, J.-P.; Smit, H. G. J.; Heise, S.; Wickert, J.; Haser, A.

2010-12-01

In this study we discuss characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude (40°N-60°N) tropopause inversion layer (TIL) based on two data sets. First, temperature measurements from GPS radio occultation data (CHAMP and GRACE) for the time interval 2001-2009 are used to exhibit seasonal properties of the TIL bottom height defined here as the height of the squared buoyancy frequency minimum N2 below the thermal tropopause, the TIL maximum height as the height of the N2 maximum above the tropopause, and the TIL top height as the height of the temperature maximum above the tropopause. Mean values of the TIL bottom, TIL maximum, and TIL top heights relative to the thermal tropopause for the NH midlatitudes are (-2.08 ± 0.35) km, (0.52 ± 0.10) km and (2.10 ± 0.23) km, respectively. A seasonal cycle of the TIL bottom and TIL top height is observed with values closer to the thermal tropopause during summer. Secondly, high-resolution temperature and trace gas profile measurements on board commercial aircrafts (Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In-Service Aircraft (MOZAIC) program) from 2001-2008 for the NH midlatitude (40°N-60°N) region are used to characterize the TIL as a mixing layer around the tropopause. Mean TIL bottom, TIL maximum, and TIL top heights based on the MOZAIC temperature (N2) measurements confirm the results from the GPS data, even though most of the MOZAIC profiles used here are available under cyclonic situations. Further, we demonstrate that the mixing ratio gradients of ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) are suitable parameters for characterizing the TIL structure.

Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Lifang; Wang, Lunche; Lai, Zhongping; Tian, Qing; Liu, Wen; Li, Jun

2017-11-01

The variation characteristics of air temperature and precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China during 1960-2015 were analysed using a linear regression (LR) analysis, a Mann-Kendall (MK) test with Sen's slope estimator and Sen's innovative trend analysis (ITA). The results showed that the annual maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased at the rate of 0.15°C/10yr, 0.23°C/10yr and 0.19°C/10yr, respectively, over the whole study area during 1960-2015. The warming magnitudes for the above variables during 1980-2015 were much higher than those during 1960-2015:0.38°C/10yr, 0.35°C/10yr and 0.36°C/10yr, respectively. The seasonal maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased in the spring, autumn and winter seasons during 1960-2015. Although the summer temperatures also increased at some extent, only the minimum temperature showed a significant increasing trend. Meanwhile, the highest rate of increase of seasonal mean temperature occurred in winter (0.24°C/10yr) during 1960-2015 and spring (0.50°C/10yr) during 1980-2015, which indicated that the significant warming trend for the whole YRB could be attributed to the remarkable temperature increases in winter and spring months. However, both the annual and seasonal warming magnitudes showed large regional differences, and a higher warming rate was detected in the eastern YRB and the western source region of the Yangtze River on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Additionally, annual precipitation increased by approximately 12.02 mm/10yr during 1960-2015 but decreased at the rate of 19.63 mm/10yr during 1980-2015. There were decreasing trends for precipitation in all four seasons since 1980 in the YRB, and a significant increasing trend was only detected in summer since 1960 (12.37 mm/10yr). Overall, a warming-wetting trend was detected in the south-eastern and north-western YRB, while there was a warming-drying trend in middle regions.

Climate Variability and Impact at NASA's Marshal Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smoot, James L.; Jedlovec, Gary; Williams, Brett

2013-01-01

Climate analysis for the Southeast U. S. has indicated that inland regions have experienced an average temperature increase of 2F since 1970. This trend is generally characterized by warmer winters with an indication of increased precipitation in the Fall season. Extended periods of limited rainfall in the Spring and Summer periods have had greater areal coverage and, at other times the number of precipitation events has been increasing. Climate model projections for the next 10-70 years indicate warmer temperatures for the Southeast U.S., particularly in the Spring and Summer, with some indication of more extremes in temperature and precipitation as shown in the table below. The realization of these types of regional climate changes in the form of extended heat waves and droughts and their subsequent stress on facilities, infrastructure, and workforce could have substantial impact on the activities and functions of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama. This presentation will present the results of an examination of the 100 year temperature and precipitation record for MSFC. Local warming has cause an increase in daily maximum and minimum temperatures by nearly 3F, with a substantial increase in the number of maximum temperatures exceeding 90F and a decrease in the number of days with minimum temperatures below freezing. These trends have substantial impact of the number of heating / cooling degree days for the area. Yearly precipitation totals are inversely correlated with the change in mean temperature and the frequency of heavy rain events has remain consistent with the changes in yearly totals. An extended heat wave index was developed which shows an increase in frequency of heat waves over the last 35 years and a subsequent reduction in precipitation during the heat waves. This trend will contribute to more intense drought conditions over the northern Alabama region, increasing the potential of destructive wildfires in and around the Center. MSFC has begun using this climate change information to adapt short-term and long-term plans for Center operations.

Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Herrera, R.; Díaz, J.; Trigo, R. M.; Hernández, E.

2005-02-01

This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal) and Madrid (Spain). Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid). The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value. The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP), 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly conditions, when Northern African air flows over the central Iberian plateau, which had been previously heated.

Long-term trends in a Dimictic Lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Hsieh, Yi-Fang; Lathrop, Richard C; Wu, Chin H; Magee, Madeline; Hamilton, David P.

2016-01-01

 The one-dimensional hydrodynamic ice model, DYRESM-WQ-I, was modified to simulate ice cover and thermal structure of dimictic Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA, over a continuous 104-year period (1911–2014). The model results were then used to examine the drivers of changes in ice cover and water temperature, focusing on the responses to shifts in air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity at multiyear timescales. Observations of the drivers include a change in the trend of warming air temperatures from 0.081 °C per decade before 1981 to 0.334 °C per decade thereafter, as well as a shift in mean wind speed from 4.44 m s−1 before 1994 to 3.74 m s−1 thereafter. Observations show that Lake Mendota has experienced significant changes in ice cover: later ice-on date(9.0 days later per century), earlier ice-off date (12.3 days per century), decreasing ice cover duration (21.3 days per century), while model simulations indicate a change in maximum ice thickness (12.7 cm decrease per century). Model simulations also show changes in the lake thermal regime of earlier stratification onset (12.3 days per century), later fall turnover (14.6 days per century), longer stratification duration (26.8 days per century), and decreasing summer hypolimnetic temperatures (−1.4 °C per century). Correlation analysis of lake variables and driving variables revealed ice cover variables, stratification onset, epilimnetic temperature, and hypolimnetic temperature were most closely correlated with air temperature, whereas freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic heating, and fall turnover date were more closely correlated with wind speed. Each lake variable (i.e., ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, maximum ice thickness, freeze-over water temperature, stratification onset, fall turnover date, stratification duration, epilimnion temperature, hypolimnion temperature, and hypolimnetic heating) was averaged for the three periods (1911–1980, 1981–1993, and 1994–2014) delineated by abrupt changes in air temperature and wind speed. Average summer hypolimnetic temperature and fall turnover date exhibit significant differences between the third period and the first two periods. Changes in ice cover (ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) exhibit an abrupt change after 1994, which was related in part to the warm El Niño winter of 1997–1998. Under-ice water temperature, freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic temperature, fall turnover date, and stratification duration demonstrate a significant difference in the third period (1994–2014), when air temperature was warmest and wind speeds decreased rather abruptly. The trends in ice cover and water temperature demonstrate responses to both long-term and abrupt changes in meteorological conditions that can be complemented with numerical modeling to better understand how these variables will respond in a future climate.

Enhanced near-surface ozone under heatwave conditions in a Mediterranean island.

PubMed

Pyrgou, Andri; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Santamouris, Mat

2018-06-15

Near-surface ozone is enhanced under particular chemical reactions and physical processes. This study showed the seasonal variation of near-surface ozone in Nicosia, Cyprus and focused in summers when the highest ozone levels were noted using a seven year hourly dataset from 2007 to 2014. The originality of this study is that it examines how ozone levels changed under heatwave conditions (defined as 4 consecutive days with daily maximum temperature over 39 °C) with emphasis on specific air quality and meteorological parameters with respect to non-heatwave summer conditions. The influencing parameters had a medium-strong positive correlation of ozone with temperature, UVA and UVB at daytime which increased by about 35% under heatwave conditions. The analysis of the wind pattern showed a small decrease of wind speed during heatwaves leading to stagnant weather conditions, but also revealed a steady diurnal cycle of wind speed reaching a peak at noon, when the highest ozone levels were noted. The negative correlation of NOx budget with ozone was further increased under heatwave conditions leading to steeper lows of ozone in the morning. In summary, this research encourages further analysis into the persistent weather conditions prevalent during HWs stimulating ozone formation for higher temperatures.

[Impact of canopy structural characteristics on inner air temperature and relative humidity of Koelreuteria paniculata community in summer].

PubMed

Qin, Zhong; Li, Zhan-dong; Cheng, Fang-yun; Sha, Hai-feng

2015-06-01

To investigate the diurnal variation of the correlations between the cooling and humidifying effects and canopy structural characteristics of the Koelreuteria paniculata community, the measurements of air temperature, relative humidity, canopy density, leaf area index (LAI) and mean leaf angle (MLA) were performed on calm sunny summer days in the community in Beijing Olympic Forest Park, China. There were significant correlations between the canopy density, LAI and MLA, which affected the cooling and humidifying effects together. The cooling effect reached its maximum by 12:00, whereas the humidifying effect reached its peak at 10:00. Compared with the control open space site, the community appeared to lower the air temperature by 0.43 to 7.53 °C and to increase the relative humidity by 1%-22% during the daytime. However, the cooling and humidifying effects seem to be not effective during the night. The canopy density and LAI were better for determining the cooling and humidifying effects from 9:00 to 12:00. However, these effects were largely controlled only by the canopy density from 12:00 to 14:00 and were significantly correlated with the canopy density and LAI afterwards until 18:00.

Late summer temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring density for Sygera Mountain, southeastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Mingyong; Duan, Jianping; Wang, Lily; Zhu, Haifeng

2018-04-01

Although several tree-ring density-based summer/late summer temperature reconstructions have been developed on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the understanding of the local/regional characteristics of summer temperature fluctuations on a long-term scale in some regions is still limited. To improve our understanding in these aspects, more local or regional summer temperature reconstructions extending back over several centuries are required. In this study, a new mean latewood density (LWD) chronology from Abies georgei var. smithii from the upper tree line of Sygera Mountain on the southeastern TP was developed to reconstruct the late summer temperature variability since 1820 CE. The bootstrapped correlation analysis showed that the LWD chronology index was significantly and positively correlated with the late summer (August-September) mean temperatures (r1950-2008 = 0.63, p < 0.001) recorded at the nearest meteorological station and that this reconstruction has considerable potential to represent the late summer temperature variability at the regional scale. Our late summer temperature reconstruction revealed three obvious cold periods (i.e., 1872-1908, 1913-1937 and 1941-1966) and two relatively warm phases (i.e., 1821-1871 and 1970-2008) over the past two centuries. Comparisons of our reconstruction with other independent tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions, glacier fluctuations and historical documental records from neighboring regions showed good agreement in these relatively cold and warm intervals. Our reconstruction exhibits an overall increasing temperature trend since the 1960s, providing new evidence supporting the recent warming of the TP. Moreover, our results also indicate that the late summer temperature variability of Sygera Mountain on the southeastern TP has potential links with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Summer diapause induced by high temperatures in the oriental tobacco budworm: ecological adaptation to hot summers

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhudong; Xin, Yucui; Zhang, Yanan; Fan, Jianting; Sun, Jianghua

2016-01-01

Summer diapause in Helicoverpa assulta (Hübner), which prolongs the pupal stage, particularly in males, is induced by high temperatures. In the laboratory, 3rd-, 4th-, 6th-instar and prepupal larvae were exposed to high temperatures – 33 and 35 °C with a photoperiod of LD16:8 – until pupation to induce summer diapause. The results showed that the incidence of summer diapause was influenced by temperature, stage exposed, and sex. The higher the temperature, the more often summer diapause was attained. Sixth-instar and prepupal larvae were the sensitive stages for summer diapause induction. H. assulta summer-diapausing pupae needed diapause development to resume development when temperatures became favorable. Furthermore, both body mass and energy storage capacity (lipid and glycogen) were significantly affected by diapause rather than sex, and were significantly higher in summer-diapausing pupae than in non-diapausing pupae. In addition, the body mass loss and respiration rate showed that the rate of metabolism in the summer-diapausing pupae was consistently lower than in non-diapausing pupae, which were significantly affected by diapause and pupal age. We conclude that summer diapause in H. assulta is a true diapause, and H. assulta has evolved mechanisms to accumulate energy storage and to lower its metabolism to adapt to hot summers. PMID:27271223

Assessing climate change over the Marche Region (central Italy) from 1961 to 2100: projected changes in mean temperature and future heat waves characterization (with a statistical evaluation of RCMs local performance)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangelantoni, Lorenzo; Coluccelli, Alessandro; Russo, Aniello

2014-05-01

Marche region (central Italy, facing the Adriatic Sea) climate dynamics are connected to the Mediterranean basin, identified as one of the most sensitive areas to ongoing climate change. Taken into account difficulties to carry out an overarching assessment over the heterogeneous Mediterranean climate-change issues frame, we opted toward a consistent regional bordered study. Projected changes in mean seasonal temperature, with an introductory multi-statistical model performance evaluation and a future heat waves intensity and duration characterization, are here presented. Multi-model projections over Marche Region, on daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature, have been extracted from the outputs of a set of 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe run by several research Institutes participating to the EU ENSEMBLE project. These climate simulations from 1961 to 2100 refer to the boundary conditions of the IPCC A1B emission scenario, and have a horizontal resolution of 25km × 25km. Furthermore, two RCMs outputs from Med-CORDEX project, with a higher horizontal resolution (12km x 12km) and boundary conditions provided by the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, are considered. Observed daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature over Marche region domain have been extracted from E-OBS gridded data set (Version 9.0) referring to the period 1970-2004. This twofold work firstly provides a concise statistical summary of how well employed RCMs reproduce observed (1970-2004) mean temperature over Marche region in term of correlation, root-mean-square difference, and ratio of their variances, graphically displayed on a 2D-Taylor diagram. This multi-statistical model performance evaluation easily allows: - to compare the agreement with observation of the 9 individual RCMs - to compare RCMs with different horizontal resolution (12 km and 25 km) - to evaluate the improvement provided by the RCMs ensemble. Results indicate that the 9 RCMs ensemble provides the statistically best reproduction of the observed interannual mean temperature distribution. Secondly, we assessed projected seasonal ensemble average change in mean temperature referring to the ending 21st century obtained by comparison between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 time slice modeled mean value over Marche region. Results emphasize summer as the season most affected by projected temperature increase (+4.5°C / +5.0°C), followed by spring season temperature increase (+3.5°C / +4.0°C). Finally, considering that some of the most severe health hazards arise from multi-day heat-waves, associated with both hot day-time and warm night-time temperatures, we assessed modeled trend (1961-2100) of the heat waves intensity and duration: intensity through the temporal evolution of the summer (J J A months) maximum and minimum temperature 90th percentile, heat waves length by temporal evolution of two detected threshold-based indices (annual maximum number of consecutive days characterized by Tmin >= 24°C and annual maximum number of consecutive days characterized by Tmax > = 32°C). Same analysis for both coastal and mountainous areas has been conducted. Future research plans aim to involve ensemble RCMs simulation, processed with bias correction methods, in forcing climate change impacts models, to provide a detailed regional heat waves impacts scenario, mainly over agriculture and health sectors.

EnviroAtlas - Maximum Temperature 1950 - 2099 for the Conterminous United States

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The EnviroAtlas Climate Scenarios were generated from NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) ensemble averages (the average of over 30 available climate models) for each of the four representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the contiguous U.S. at 30 arc-second (approx. 800 m2) spatial resolution. NEX-DCP30 mean monthly maximum temperature for the 4 RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were organized by season (Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall) and annually for the years 2006 00e2?? 2099. Additionally, mean monthly maximum temperature for the ensemble average of all historic runs is organized similarly for the years 1950 00e2?? 2005. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online mapping activities related to EnviroAtlas. EnviroAtlas (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas) allows the user to interact with a web-based, easy-to-use, mapping application to view and analyze multiple ecosystem services for the contiguous United States. The dataset is available as downloadable data (https://edg.epa.gov/data/Public/ORD/EnviroAtlas) or as an EnviroAtlas map service. Additional descriptive information about each attribute in this dataset can be found in its associated EnviroAtlas Fact Sheet (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas/enviroatlas-fact-sheets).

Multi-model projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes under A1B scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, X.; Wang, S.; Tang, J.

2016-12-01

As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, the projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes are constructed using three global climate models (GCMs) and seven regional climate models (RCMs) during 2041-2060 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emission scenario. For the control climate of 1981-2000, most nested RCMs show advantage over the driving GCM of European Centre/Hamburg Fifth Generation (ECHAM5) in the temporal-spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation over Indian Peninsula. Following the driving GCM of ECHAM5, most nested RCMs produce advanced monsoon onset in the control climate. For future climate widespread summer warming is projected over Indian Peninsula by all climate models, with the Multi-RCMs ensemble mean (MME) temperature increasing of 1°C to 2.5°C and the maximum warming center located in northern Indian Peninsula. While for the precipitation, a large inter-model spread is projected by RCMs, with wetter condition in MME projections and significant increase over southern India. Driven by the same GCM, most RCMs project advanced monsoon onset while delayed onset is found in two Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) projections, indicating uncertainty can be expected in the Indian Summer Monsoon onset. All climate models except Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model with equal resolution (referred as CCAMP) and two RegCM3 models project stronger summer monsoon during 2041-2060. The disagreement in precipitation projections by RCMs indicates that the surface climate change on regional scale is not only dominated by the large-scale forcing which is provided by driving GCM but also sensitive to RCM' internal physics.

A Survey of Pound Net Catches Near the Chesapeake Bay Mouth off Lynnhaven, 1973-1983.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-10-01

NO. NO. NO. ACCESSION NO. Norfolk, Virginia 23510-1096 I I 11 TITLE (Include Security Classfication) A Survev of Pound Net Catches Near the...reverse if necessary and identify by block number’ FIELD GROUP I SUB-GROUP Pound net catches, fin fish, Lynnhaven, commercial fishery, abundance, seasonal...summer minimum is in August, the month in which water temperatures are near maximum. The bimodality of abundance of these species is, no doubt, the result

Five centuries of Central European temperature extremes reconstructed from tree-ring density and documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battipaglia, Giovanna; Frank, David; Büntgen, Ulf; Dobrovolný, Petr; Brázdil, Rudolf; Pfister, Christian; Esper, Jan

2010-06-01

Future climate change will likely influence the frequency and intensity of weather extremes. As such events are by definition rare, long records are required to understand their characteristics, drivers, and consequences on ecology and society. Herein we provide a unique perspective on regional-scale temperature extremes over the past millennium, using three tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies from higher elevations in the European Alps. We verify the tree-ring-based extremes using documentary evidences from Switzerland, the Czech Republic, and Central Europe that allowed the identification of 44 summer extremes over the 1550-2003 period. These events include cold temperatures in 1579, 1628, 1675, and 1816, as well as warm ones in 1811 and 2003. Prior to 1550, we provide new evidence for cold (e.g., 1068 and 1258) and warm (e.g., 1333) summers derived from the combined MXD records and thus help to characterize high-frequency temperature variability during medieval times. Spatial coherence of the reconstructed extremes is found over Switzerland, with most signatures even extending across Central Europe. We discuss potential limitations of the tree-ring and documentary archives, including the ( i) ability of MXD to particularly capture extremely warm temperatures, ( ii) methodological identification and relative definition of extremes, and ( iii) placement of those events in the millennium-long context of low-frequency climate change.

Evaluation of empirical relationships between extreme rainfall and daily maximum temperature in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herath, Sujeewa Malwila; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Nguyen, Van Thanh Van

2018-01-01

Understanding the relationships between extreme daily and sub-daily rainfall events and their governing factors is important in order to analyse the properties of extreme rainfall events in a changing climate. Atmospheric temperature is one of the dominant climate variables which has a strong relationship with extreme rainfall events. In this study, a temperature-rainfall binning technique is used to evaluate the dependency of extreme rainfall on daily maximum temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation was found to describe the relationship between daily maximum temperature and a range of rainfall durations from 6 min up to 24 h for seven Australian weather stations, the stations being located in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. The analysis shows that the rainfall - temperature scaling varies with location, temperature and rainfall duration. The Darwin Airport station shows a negative scaling relationship, while the other six stations show a positive relationship. To identify the trend in scaling relationship over time the same analysis is conducted using data covering 10 year periods. Results indicate that the dependency of extreme rainfall on temperature also varies with the analysis period. Further, this dependency shows an increasing trend for more extreme short duration rainfall and a decreasing trend for average long duration rainfall events at most stations. Seasonal variations of the scale changing trends were analysed by categorizing the summer and autumn seasons in one group and the winter and spring seasons in another group. Most of 99th percentile of 6 min, 1 h and 24 h rain durations at Perth, Melbourne and Sydney stations show increasing trend for both groups while Adelaide and Darwin show decreasing trend. Furthermore, majority of scaling trend of 50th percentile are decreasing for both groups.

Impacts of Future Climate and Emission Changes on U.S. Air Quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Penrod, Ashley; Zhang, Yang; Wang, K.

2014-06-01

Changes in climate and emissions will affect future air quality. In this work, simulations of present (2001-2005) and future (2026-2030) regional air quality are conducted with the newly released CMAQ version 5.0 to examine the individual and combined impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the U.S. Current (2001-2005) meteorological and chemical predictions are evaluated against observational data to assess the model’s capability in reproducing the seasonal differences. Overall, WRF and CMAQ perform reasonably well. Increased temperatures (up to 3.18 °C) and decreased ventilation (up to 157 m in planetary boundary layer height) aremore » found in both future winter and summer, with more prominent changes in winter. Increases in future temperatures result in increased isoprene and terpene emissions in winter and summer, driving the increase in maximum 8-h average O3 (up to 5.0 ppb) over the eastern U.S. in winter while decreases in NOx emissions drive the decrease in O3 over most of the U.S. in summer. Future concentrations of PM2.5 in winter and summer and many of its components including organic matter in winter, ammonium and nitrate in summer, and sulfate in winter and summer, decrease due to decreases in primary anthropogenic emissions and the concentrations of secondary anthropogenic pollutants and increased precipitation in winter. Future winter and summer dry and wet deposition fluxes are spatially variable and increase with increasing surface resistance and precipitation (e.g., NH4+ and NO3- dry and wet deposition fluxes increase in winter over much of the U.S.), respectively, and decrease with a decrease in ambient particulate concentrations (e.g., SO42- dry and wet deposition fluxes decrease over the eastern U.S. in summer and winter). Sensitivity simulations show that anthropogenic emission projections dominate over changes in climate in their impacts on the U.S. air quality in the near future. Changes in some regions/species, however, are dominated by climate and/or both climate and anthropogenic emissions, especially in future years that are marked by meteorological conditions conducive to poor air quality.« less

Seasonal and latitudinal variations of surface fluxes at two Arctic terrestrial sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grachev, Andrey A.; Persson, P. Ola G.; Uttal, Taneil; Akish, Elena A.; Cox, Christopher J.; Morris, Sara M.; Fairall, Christopher W.; Stone, Robert S.; Lesins, Glen; Makshtas, Alexander P.; Repina, Irina A.

2017-11-01

This observational study compares seasonal variations of surface fluxes (turbulent, radiative, and soil heat) and other ancillary atmospheric/surface/permafrost data based on in-situ measurements made at terrestrial research observatories located near the coast of the Arctic Ocean. Hourly-averaged multiyear data sets collected at Eureka (Nunavut, Canada) and Tiksi (East Siberia, Russia) are analyzed in more detail to elucidate similarities and differences in the seasonal cycles at these two Arctic stations, which are situated at significantly different latitudes (80.0°N and 71.6°N, respectively). While significant gross similarities exist in the annual cycles of various meteorological parameters and fluxes, the differences in latitude, local topography, cloud cover, snowfall, and soil characteristics produce noticeable differences in fluxes and in the structures of the atmospheric boundary layer and upper soil temperature profiles. An important factor is that even though higher latitude sites (in this case Eureka) generally receive less annual incoming solar radiation but more total daily incoming solar radiation throughout the summer months than lower latitude sites (in this case Tiksi). This leads to a counter-intuitive state where the average active layer (or thaw line) is deeper and the topsoil temperature in midsummer are higher in Eureka which is located almost 10° north of Tiksi. The study further highlights the differences in the seasonal and latitudinal variations of the incoming shortwave and net radiation as well as the moderating cloudiness effects that lead to temporal and spatial differences in the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer and the uppermost ground layer. Specifically the warm season (Arctic summer) is shorter and mid-summer amplitude of the surface fluxes near solar noon is generally less in Eureka than in Tiksi. During the dark Polar night and cold seasons (Arctic winter) when the ground is covered with snow and air temperatures are sufficiently below freezing, the near-surface environment is generally stably stratified and the hourly averaged turbulent fluxes are quite small and irregular with on average small downward sensible heat fluxes and upward latent heat and carbon dioxide fluxes. The magnitude of the turbulent fluxes increases rapidly when surface snow disappears and the air temperatures rise above freezing during spring melt and eventually reaches a summer maximum. Throughout the summer months strong upward sensible and latent heat fluxes and downward carbon dioxide (uptake by the surface) are typically observed indicating persistent unstable (convective) stratification. Due to the combined effects of day length and solar zenith angle, the convective boundary layer forms in the High Arctic (e.g., in Eureka) and can reach long-lived quasi-stationary states in summer. During late summer and early autumn all turbulent fluxes rapidly decrease in magnitude when the air temperature decreases and falls below freezing. Unlike Eureka, a pronounced zero-curtain effect consisting of a sustained surface temperature hiatus at the freezing point is observed in Tiksi during fall due to wetter and/or water saturated soils.

7-Years of Using Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) to assess river restoration efforts : synergies of high-resolution observation and modeling on the Middle Fork of the John Day River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, A.; Diabat, M.

2014-12-01

Temperature is a key factor for salmonid health and is an important restoration metric on the Middle Fork of the John Day River, northeast Oregon. The longest undammed tributary to the Columbia, the headwaters of the Middle Fork are crucial to steelhead and spring Chinook and summer Chinook juvenile rearing. In the past century the river has been altered by dredge mining, overgrazing, logging activities, and irrigation resulting in bank erosion, low effective shade, and channelization. These factors decreased fish habitat and led to increased stream temperature maxima. Restoration has focused on restoring fish habitat, creating thermal refugia, and planting native vegetation. The most recent completed restoration project diverted the flow into the historic, meandering stream channel from the dredged, straightened channel. Over the past seven years, Oregon State University researchers (Tara O'Donnell-2012, Julie Huff-2009) have been involved in a planned-to-be 10-year stream temperature monitoring study to assess maximum temperatures during low-flow summer months. The use of fiber optics through distributed temperature sensing (DTS) made it possible to record high resolution temperature data at both temporal and spatial scales; data which is used to assess the efficacy of restoration efforts on the reach. Furthermore, DTS provided temperature data that reveals subtle hydrologic processes such as groundwater or hyporheic inflows and quantifies their effect on the stream. Current research has focused on large scale DTS installations on the Middle Fork of the John Day River on the Oxbow, Forrest, and the upstream Galena ("RPB") conservation properties. In the summers of 2013 and 2014, 16 km of river were monitored. Our study compares temperatures before and after the restoration project and provides essential guidance for future restoration projects. Direct comparisons coupled with a deterministic modeling using HeatSource assist in better understanding the responsiveness of the stream to restoration. Results showed that reconstructing the stream channel influenced stream temperature as a function of modifying channel geometry, hydraulics, and riparian conditions. Special attention in this work is focused on the role of tributary fans in the creation of distributed cold-water emergences.

Recent climate variability and its impacts on soybean yields in Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Danielle Barros; Rao, V. Brahmananda

2011-08-01

Recent climate variability in rainfall, temperatures (maximum and minimum), and the diurnal temperature range is studied with emphasis on its influence over soybean yields in southern Brazil, during 1969 to 2002. The results showed that the soybean ( Glycine max L. Merril) yields are more affected by changes in temperature during summer, while changes in rainfall are more important during the beginning of plantation and at its peak of development. Furthermore, soybean yields in Paraná are more sensitive to rainfall variations, while soybean yields in the Rio Grande do Sul are more sensitive to variations in temperature. Effects of interannual climatic variability on soybean yields are evaluated through three agro-meteorological models: additive Stewart, multiplicative Rao, and multiplicative Jensen. The Jensen model is able to reproduce the interannual behavior of soybean yield reasonably well.

Relative sensitivity of five Hawaiian coral species to high temperature under high-pCO2 conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahr, Keisha D.; Jokiel, Paul L.; Rodgers, Ku'ulei S.

2016-06-01

Coral reef ecosystems are presently undergoing decline due to anthropogenic climate change. The chief detrimental factors are increased temperature and increased pCO2. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of these two stressors operating independently and in unison on the biological response of common Hawaiian reef corals. Manipulative experiments were performed using five species ( Porites compressa, Pocillopora damicornis, Fungia scutaria, Montipora capitata, and Leptastrea purpurea) in a continuous-flow mesocosm system under natural sunlight conditions. Corals were grown together as a community under treatments of high temperature (2 °C above normal maximum summer temperature), high pCO2 (twice present-day conditions), and with both factors acting in unison. Control corals were grown under present-day pCO2 and at normal summer temperatures. Leptastrea purpurea proved to be an extremely hardy coral. No change in calcification or mortality occurred under treatments of high temperature, high pCO2, or combined high temperature-high pCO2. The remaining four species showed reduced calcification in the high-temperature treatment. Two species ( L. purpurea and M. capitata) showed no response to increased pCO2. Also, high pCO2 ameliorated the negative effect of high temperature on the calcification rates of P. damicornis. Mortality was driven primarily by high temperature, with a negative synergistic effect in P. compressa only in the high-pCO2-high-temperature treatment. Results support the observation that biological response to temperature and pCO2 elevation is highly species-specific, so generalizations based on response of a single species might not apply to a diverse and complex coral reef community.

Nitric and nitrous oxide emissions from N-saturated subtropical forest in Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Ronghua; Mulder, Jan; Behrendt, Thomas; Yu, Longfei; Dörsch, Peter

2017-04-01

Acidic subtropical forest soils, receiving high atmogenic nitrogen (N) deposition, are characterized by fast N turnover and are potential "hot spots" for NO emissions. Moreover, soils in monsoonal climate are expose to rapid soil moisture fluctuations and high soil temperatures. We measured in situ fluxes in different landscape positions of the Tieshanping forest, Chongqing, SW China, in the summers of 2015 and 2016 and conducted controlled dry-out experiments using a dynamic chamber system in the laboratory. In the wet summer of 2015, the monthly mean NO flux from Acrisols on hill slopes was 44.3 µg N m-2 h-1 with the highest flux (231.5 µg N m-2 h-1) observed at the foot of the hill slope (HS). Significantly larger NO fluxes (88.4 µg N m-2 h-1) were observed in the drier summer of 2016 than the wetter summer of 2015. Monthly mean NO flux in a groundwater discharge zone (GDZ) near the stream (26.4 µg N m-2 h-1) was lower than on the hillslope. In both summers, the NO fluxes were negatively correlated with soil moistures (P < 0.001). In the laboratory experiment (30 0C), maximum NO production rates in hill slope soils (7.7 - 32.0 ng N kg-1 s-1) were observed at 21% WFPS (water filled pore space), while soils from the groundwater discharge zone had their maximum NO emission at 15% WFPS ( 5.6 ng N kg-1 s-1). Whereas NO emission response to dry-out showed one maximum in the dry soil moisture range, N2O release from HS soils showed two distinct maxima, one (1.3 - 4.5 ng N kg-1 s-1) at high and one (0.5 - 2.8 ng N kg-1 s-1) at low soil moisture, attributable to denitrification and nitrification, respectively. For GDZ soils, maximum N2O release rates ( 22 ng N kg-1 s-1) were observed at 150% WFPS, reflecting the high denitrification potentials in these riparian soils. Results from a short-term in situ labelling experiment with 15NH414NO3 and 14NH415NO3 indicated that more than 80% of the NO emitted on the hillslope originates from nitrification. In conclusion, our results support the notion that N-saturated subtropical forest soils are an important source for NO and N2O, mainly controlled by soil moisture fluctuations in a warm humid climate.

A global database of lake surface temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985–2009

PubMed Central

Sharma, Sapna; Gray, Derek K; Read, Jordan S; O’Reilly, Catherine M; Schneider, Philipp; Qudrat, Anam; Gries, Corinna; Stefanoff, Samantha; Hampton, Stephanie E; Hook, Simon; Lenters, John D; Livingstone, David M; McIntyre, Peter B; Adrian, Rita; Allan, Mathew G; Anneville, Orlane; Arvola, Lauri; Austin, Jay; Bailey, John; Baron, Jill S; Brookes, Justin; Chen, Yuwei; Daly, Robert; Dokulil, Martin; Dong, Bo; Ewing, Kye; de Eyto, Elvira; Hamilton, David; Havens, Karl; Haydon, Shane; Hetzenauer, Harald; Heneberry, Jocelyne; Hetherington, Amy L; Higgins, Scott N; Hixson, Eric; Izmest’eva, Lyubov R; Jones, Benjamin M; Kangur, Külli; Kasprzak, Peter; Köster, Olivier; Kraemer, Benjamin M; Kumagai, Michio; Kuusisto, Esko; Leshkevich, George; May, Linda; MacIntyre, Sally; Müller-Navarra, Dörthe; Naumenko, Mikhail; Noges, Peeter; Noges, Tiina; Niederhauser, Pius; North, Ryan P; Paterson, Andrew M; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Rigosi, Anna; Rimmer, Alon; Rogora, Michela; Rudstam, Lars; Rusak, James A; Salmaso, Nico; Samal, Nihar R; Schindler, Daniel E; Schladow, Geoffrey; Schmidt, Silke R; Schultz, Tracey; Silow, Eugene A; Straile, Dietmar; Teubner, Katrin; Verburg, Piet; Voutilainen, Ari; Watkinson, Andrew; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A; Williamson, Craig E; Woo, Kara H

2015-01-01

Global environmental change has influenced lake surface temperatures, a key driver of ecosystem structure and function. Recent studies have suggested significant warming of water temperatures in individual lakes across many different regions around the world. However, the spatial and temporal coherence associated with the magnitude of these trends remains unclear. Thus, a global data set of water temperature is required to understand and synthesize global, long-term trends in surface water temperatures of inland bodies of water. We assembled a database of summer lake surface temperatures for 291 lakes collected in situ and/or by satellites for the period 1985–2009. In addition, corresponding climatic drivers (air temperatures, solar radiation, and cloud cover) and geomorphometric characteristics (latitude, longitude, elevation, lake surface area, maximum depth, mean depth, and volume) that influence lake surface temperatures were compiled for each lake. This unique dataset offers an invaluable baseline perspective on global-scale lake thermal conditions as environmental change continues. PMID:25977814

A global database of lake surface temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985-2009.

PubMed

Sharma, Sapna; Gray, Derek K; Read, Jordan S; O'Reilly, Catherine M; Schneider, Philipp; Qudrat, Anam; Gries, Corinna; Stefanoff, Samantha; Hampton, Stephanie E; Hook, Simon; Lenters, John D; Livingstone, David M; McIntyre, Peter B; Adrian, Rita; Allan, Mathew G; Anneville, Orlane; Arvola, Lauri; Austin, Jay; Bailey, John; Baron, Jill S; Brookes, Justin; Chen, Yuwei; Daly, Robert; Dokulil, Martin; Dong, Bo; Ewing, Kye; de Eyto, Elvira; Hamilton, David; Havens, Karl; Haydon, Shane; Hetzenauer, Harald; Heneberry, Jocelyne; Hetherington, Amy L; Higgins, Scott N; Hixson, Eric; Izmest'eva, Lyubov R; Jones, Benjamin M; Kangur, Külli; Kasprzak, Peter; Köster, Olivier; Kraemer, Benjamin M; Kumagai, Michio; Kuusisto, Esko; Leshkevich, George; May, Linda; MacIntyre, Sally; Müller-Navarra, Dörthe; Naumenko, Mikhail; Noges, Peeter; Noges, Tiina; Niederhauser, Pius; North, Ryan P; Paterson, Andrew M; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Rigosi, Anna; Rimmer, Alon; Rogora, Michela; Rudstam, Lars; Rusak, James A; Salmaso, Nico; Samal, Nihar R; Schindler, Daniel E; Schladow, Geoffrey; Schmidt, Silke R; Schultz, Tracey; Silow, Eugene A; Straile, Dietmar; Teubner, Katrin; Verburg, Piet; Voutilainen, Ari; Watkinson, Andrew; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A; Williamson, Craig E; Woo, Kara H

2015-01-01

Global environmental change has influenced lake surface temperatures, a key driver of ecosystem structure and function. Recent studies have suggested significant warming of water temperatures in individual lakes across many different regions around the world. However, the spatial and temporal coherence associated with the magnitude of these trends remains unclear. Thus, a global data set of water temperature is required to understand and synthesize global, long-term trends in surface water temperatures of inland bodies of water. We assembled a database of summer lake surface temperatures for 291 lakes collected in situ and/or by satellites for the period 1985-2009. In addition, corresponding climatic drivers (air temperatures, solar radiation, and cloud cover) and geomorphometric characteristics (latitude, longitude, elevation, lake surface area, maximum depth, mean depth, and volume) that influence lake surface temperatures were compiled for each lake. This unique dataset offers an invaluable baseline perspective on global-scale lake thermal conditions as environmental change continues.

A global database of lake surface temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985–2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharma, Sapna; Gray, Derek; Read, Jordan S.; O'Reilly, Catherine; Schneider, Philipp; Qudrat, Anam; Gries, Corinna; Stefanoff, Samantha; Hampton, Stephanie; Hook, Simon; Lenters, John; Livingstone, David M.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Adrian, Rita; Allan, Mathew; Anneville, Orlane; Arvola, Lauri; Austin, Jay; Bailey, John E.; Baron, Jill S.; Brookes, Justin D; Chen, Yuwei; Daly, Robert; Ewing, Kye; de Eyto, Elvira; Dokulil, Martin; Hamilton, David B.; Havens, Karl; Haydon, Shane; Hetzenaeur, Harald; Heneberry, Jocelyn; Hetherington, Amy; Higgins, Scott; Hixson, Eric; Izmest'eva, Lyubov; Jones, Benjamin M.; Kangur, Kulli; Kasprzak, Peter; Kraemer, Benjamin; Kumagai, Michio; Kuusisto, Esko; Leshkevich, George; May, Linda; MacIntyre, Sally; Dörthe Müller-Navarra,; Naumenko, Mikhail; Noges, Peeter; Noges, Tiina; Pius Niederhauser,; North, Ryan P.; Andrew Paterson,; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Rigosi, Anna; Rimmer, Alon; Rogora, Michela; Rudstam, Lars G.; Rusak, James A.; Salmaso, Nico; Samal, Nihar R.; Daniel E. Schindler,; Geoffrey Schladow,; Schmidt, Silke R.; Tracey Schultz,; Silow, Eugene A.; Straile, Dietmar; Teubner, Katrin; Verburg, Piet; Voutilainen, Ari; Watkinson, Andrew; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Craig E. Williamson,; Kara H. Woo,

2015-01-01

Global environmental change has influenced lake surface temperatures, a key driver of ecosystem structure and function. Recent studies have suggested significant warming of water temperatures in individual lakes across many different regions around the world. However, the spatial and temporal coherence associated with the magnitude of these trends remains unclear. Thus, a global data set of water temperature is required to understand and synthesize global, long-term trends in surface water temperatures of inland bodies of water. We assembled a database of summer lake surface temperatures for 291 lakes collected in situ and/or by satellites for the period 1985–2009. In addition, corresponding climatic drivers (air temperatures, solar radiation, and cloud cover) and geomorphometric characteristics (latitude, longitude, elevation, lake surface area, maximum depth, mean depth, and volume) that influence lake surface temperatures were compiled for each lake. This unique dataset offers an invaluable baseline perspective on global-scale lake thermal conditions as environmental change continues.

On the development of summer thunderstorms in the city of São Paulo: Mean meteorological characteristics and pollution effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales Rodriguez, Carlos A.; da Rocha, Rosmeri P.; Bombardi, Rodrigo

2010-05-01

This study investigates how the summer thunderstorms developed over the city of São Paulo and if the pollution might affect its development or characteristics during the austral summer (December-January-February-March, DJFM months). A total of 605 days from December 1999 to March 2004 was separated as 241 thunderstorms days (TDs) and 364 non-thunderstorm days (NTDs). The analyses are performed by using hourly measurements of air temperature ( T), web-bulb temperature ( Tw), surface atmospheric pressure ( P), wind velocity and direction, rainfall and thunder and lightning observations collected at the Meteorological Station of the University of São Paulo in conjunction with aerosol measurements obtained by AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network), and the NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Prediction Department of Energy) reanalysis and radiosondes. The wind diurnal cycle shows that for TDs the morning flow is from the northwest rotating to the southeast after 16:00 local time (LT) and it remains from the east until the night. For the NTDs, the wind is well characterized by the sea-breeze circulation that in the morning has the wind blowing from the northeast and in the afternoon from the southeast. The TDs show that the air temperature diurnal cycle presents higher amplitude and the maximum temperature of the day is 3.2 °C higher than in NTDs. Another important factor found is the difference between moisture that is higher during TDs. In terms of precipitation, the TDs represent 40% of total of days analyzed and those days are responsible for more than 60% of the total rain accumulation during the summer, for instance 50% of the TDs had more than 15.5 mm day - 1 while the NTDs had 4 mm day - 1 . Moreover, the rainfall distribution shows that TDs have higher rainfall rate intensities and an afternoon precipitation maximum; while in the NTDs there isn't a defined precipitation diurnal cycle. The wind and temperature fields from NCEP reanalysis concur with the local weather station and radiosonde observations. The NCEP composites show that TDs are controlled by synoptic circulation characterized by a pre-frontal situation, with a baroclinic zone situated at southern part of São Paulo. In terms of pollution, this study employed the AERONET data to obtain the main aerosol characteristics in the atmospheric column for both TDs and NTDs. The particle size distribution and particle volume size distribution have similar concentrations for both TDs and NTDs and present a similar fine and coarse mode mean radius. In respect to the atmospheric loading, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at different frequencies presented closed mean values for both TDs and NTDs that were statistically significant at 95% level. The spectral dependency of those values in conjunction with the Angstrom parameter reveal the higher concentration of the fine mode particles that are more likely to be hygroscopic and from urban areas. In summary, no significant aerosol effect could be found on the development of summer thunderstorms, suggesting the strong synoptic control by the baroclinic forcing for deep convective development.

Definition of temperature thresholds: the example of the French heat wave warning system.

PubMed

Pascal, Mathilde; Wagner, Vérène; Le Tertre, Alain; Laaidi, Karine; Honoré, Cyrille; Bénichou, Françoise; Beaudeau, Pascal

2013-01-01

Heat-related deaths should be somewhat preventable. In France, some prevention measures are activated when minimum and maximum temperatures averaged over three days reach city-specific thresholds. The current thresholds were computed based on a descriptive analysis of past heat waves and on local expert judgement. We tested whether a different method would confirm these thresholds. The study was set in the six cities of Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Nantes, Strasbourg and Limoges between 1973 and 2003. For each city, we estimated the excess in mortality associated with different temperature thresholds, using a generalised additive model, controlling for long-time trends, seasons and days of the week. These models were used to compute the mortality predicted by different percentiles of temperatures. The thresholds were chosen as the percentiles associated with a significant excess mortality. In all cities, there was a good correlation between current thresholds and the thresholds derived from the models, with 0°C to 3°C differences for averaged maximum temperatures. Both set of thresholds were able to anticipate the main periods of excess mortality during the summers of 1973 to 2003. A simple method relying on descriptive analysis and expert judgement is sufficient to define protective temperature thresholds and to prevent heat wave mortality. As temperatures are increasing along with the climate change and adaptation is ongoing, more research is required to understand if and when thresholds should be modified.

Can riparian vegetation shade mitigate the expected rise in stream temperatures due to climate change during heat waves in a human-impacted pre-alpine river?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trimmel, Heidelinde; Weihs, Philipp; Leidinger, David; Formayer, Herbert; Kalny, Gerda; Melcher, Andreas

2018-01-01

Global warming has already affected European rivers and their aquatic biota, and climate models predict an increase of temperature in central Europe over all seasons. We simulated the influence of expected changes in heat wave intensity during the 21st century on water temperatures of a heavily impacted pre-alpine Austrian river and analysed future mitigating effects of riparian vegetation shade on radiant and turbulent energy fluxes using the deterministic Heat Source model. Modelled stream water temperature increased less than 1.5 °C within the first half of the century. Until 2100, a more significant increase of around 3 °C in minimum, maximum and mean stream temperatures was predicted for a 20-year return period heat event. The result showed clearly that in a highly altered river system riparian vegetation was not able to fully mitigate the predicted temperature rise caused by climate change but would be able to reduce water temperature by 1 to 2 °C. The removal of riparian vegetation amplified stream temperature increases. Maximum stream temperatures could increase by more than 4 °C even in annual heat events. Such a dramatic water temperature shift of some degrees, especially in summer, would indicate a total shift of aquatic biodiversity. The results demonstrate that effective river restoration and mitigation require re-establishing riparian vegetation and emphasize the importance of land-water interfaces and their ecological functioning in aquatic environments.

Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halder, Subhadeep; Saha, Subodh K.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

Daily moderate rainfall events, which constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 through 2005. On the other hand, mean and extreme near-surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) and prescribed land cover of years 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC), which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over centralmore » India coincides with the region of decrease in forest and increase in crop cover. Our results also show that LULCC alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by a maximum of 1–1.2 °C, which is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease in forest cover and simultaneous increase in crops not only reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, but also contributes toward decrease in moisture convergence through reduced surface roughness. These factors act together in reducing significantly the moderate rainfall events and the amount of rainfall in that category over central India. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean. As a result, enhanced warming at the surface and greater decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India compared to the earlier set of simulations are noticed. Results from these additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of LULCC in the decrease in moderate rainfall events and increase in daily mean and extreme temperature over India. Therefore, this study demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India during the monsoon season. Although, the regional climate model helps in better resolving land–atmosphere feedbacks over the Indian region, the inferences do depend on the fidelity of the model in capturing the features of Indian monsoon realistically. Lastly, it is proposed that similar studies using a suite of climate models will further enrich our understanding about the role of LULCC in the Indian monsoon climate.« less

Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

DOE PAGES

Halder, Subhadeep; Saha, Subodh K.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; ...

2016-05-10

Daily moderate rainfall events, which constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 through 2005. On the other hand, mean and extreme near-surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) and prescribed land cover of years 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC), which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over centralmore » India coincides with the region of decrease in forest and increase in crop cover. Our results also show that LULCC alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by a maximum of 1–1.2 °C, which is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease in forest cover and simultaneous increase in crops not only reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, but also contributes toward decrease in moisture convergence through reduced surface roughness. These factors act together in reducing significantly the moderate rainfall events and the amount of rainfall in that category over central India. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean. As a result, enhanced warming at the surface and greater decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India compared to the earlier set of simulations are noticed. Results from these additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of LULCC in the decrease in moderate rainfall events and increase in daily mean and extreme temperature over India. Therefore, this study demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India during the monsoon season. Although, the regional climate model helps in better resolving land–atmosphere feedbacks over the Indian region, the inferences do depend on the fidelity of the model in capturing the features of Indian monsoon realistically. Lastly, it is proposed that similar studies using a suite of climate models will further enrich our understanding about the role of LULCC in the Indian monsoon climate.« less

Variability of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the Holocene and possible forcing mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Fuzhi; Ma, Chunmei; Zhu, Cheng; Lu, Huayu; Zhang, Xiaojian; Huang, Kangyou; Guo, Tianhong; Li, Kaifeng; Li, Lan; Li, Bing; Zhang, Wenqing

2018-03-01

Projecting how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall will change with global warming is essential for human sustainability. Reconstructing Holocene climate can provide critical insight into its forcing and future variability. However, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene summer precipitation are lacking for tropical and subtropical China, which is the core region of the EASM influence. Here we present high-resolution annual and summer rainfall reconstructions covering the whole Holocene based on the pollen record at Xinjie site from the lower Yangtze region. Summer rainfall was less seasonal and 30% higher than modern values at 10-6 cal kyr BP and gradually declined thereafter, which broadly followed the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Over the last two millennia, however, the summer rainfall has deviated from the downward trend of summer insolation. We argue that greenhouse gas forcing might have offset summer insolation forcing and contributed to the late Holocene rainfall anomaly, which is supported by the TraCE-21 ka transient simulation. Besides, tropical sea-surface temperatures could modulate summer rainfall by affecting evaporation of seawater. The rainfall pattern concurs with stalagmite and other proxy records from southern China but differs from mid-Holocene rainfall maximum recorded in arid/semiarid northern China. Summer rainfall in northern China was strongly suppressed by high-northern-latitude ice volume forcing during the early Holocene in spite of high summer insolation. In addition, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation might be responsible for droughts of northern China and floods of southern China during the late Holocene. Furthermore, quantitative rainfall reconstructions indicate that the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations underestimate the magnitude of Holocene precipitation changes. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal variability of the Holocene EASM precipitation and potential forcing mechanisms, which are very helpful for calibration of paleoclimate models and prediction of future precipitation changes in East Asia in the scenario of global warming.

Humidification of the Arctic: Effects of more open ocean water on land temperatures and tundra productivity along continental and maritime bioclimate transects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Raynolds, M. K.; Epstein, H. E.

2017-12-01

Amplified Arctic warming linked to declining sea-ice extent led to generally enhanced productivity of the tundra biome during the period 1982-2008. After about 2002, coinciding with a recent precipitous decline in sea ice, large areas of the Arctic began showing reversals of previous positive productivity trends. To better understand these recent vegetation productivity declines and whether they are associated with differences in a general humidification of portions of the Arctic, we focus analysis on two transects with ground information: the more continental North America Arctic Transect (NAAT) and the more maritime Eurasia Arctic Transect (EAT). We compare ground information with satellite-derived trends in open water, summer terrestrial temperatures, and vegetation greenness and changes in continentality of the two transects, as indicated by the differences in the annual maximum and minimum mean monthly temperatures. Areas adjacent to perennial sea ice along in the northern parts of the NAAT exhibit climates with positive trends in summer warmth, but negative greening trends, possibly due to soil drying. Southern parts of the NAAT in the vicinity of more open water show positive greenness trends. Along the EAT, cooling midsummer conditions and reduced greenness appear to be caused by cloudier conditions, and possibly later snow melt during the period of maximum potential photosynthesis. Ground-based environmental and vegetation data indicate that biomass, particularly moss biomass is much greater along the more maritime EAT, indicating a buffering effect of the vegetation that will act to damp productivity as humidification of the Arctic proceeds. This multi-scale analysis is one step in the direction of understanding the drivers of tundra vegetation productivity in the Arctic.

Flight thresholds and seasonal variations in flight activity of the light-brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana (Walk.) (Tortricidae), in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Danthanarayana, W

1976-12-01

The flight activity of Epiphyas postvittana was studied at two sites near Melbourne with the aid of suction traps, over a period of 4 years. Maximum numbers were found to fly during the period September to March with peak activity coinciding with the emergence of winter, spring and summer generation moths. E. postivittana is predominantly a nocturnal flier with maximum activity around 20.00-24.00 h. The lower temperature threshold of flight was 8-11°C. The upper temperature threshold varied from 20-21°C, 24-25°C and 27-28°C for the winter, spring and summer generation moths respectively. Flight was highly influenced by the prevailing wind. The lower wind speed threshold was 0.5-0.8 m -s and the upper wind speed threshold was 2.6-2.7 m -s . The relationship between wind speed and the amount of flight was non-linear, with the frequency of flights decreasing sharply with increasing wind speed. No flights occurred at wind speeds greater than 2.8 m -s . Variation in relative humidity had no influence on flight, but lack of rain favoured flight. The amount of flight activity and the amount of rainfall were negatively correlated; flights did not occur when the daily precipitation exceeded 32.5 mm, and with a precipitation exceeding 39 mm no flights could be expected. The value of these findings to pest control programmes is discussed.

Analysis on temporal and spatial distribution of reference evapotranspiration and its possible influencing factors in Yunnan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yashan; Nan, Lijun; Wang, Yanjun; Xu, Chengdong; Yang, Yunyuan; Cui, Changwei; Yang, Junmei; Guo, Yuan; Li, Miaorong

2018-04-01

This article was based on the climate data of 125 meteorological stations from 1982 to 2011 in Yunnan Province, the daily basis ET0 was calculated with Penman-Monteith equation recommended by FAO in 1998. Then the Kriging interpolation method and related methods of climate statistical diagnosis analysis were used to analyze the features. The main results showed that the highest value of annual ET0 of Yunnan Province was the joint parts of Dali, Lijiang and Chuxiong, and also the north of Chuxiong and Kunming, while the least value was the northeast and northwest of Yunnan Province. The ET0 was showed rising trend, the speed was about 5.9mm/10a, but the rising trend was not significant. The ET0 of spring was highest, and the ET0 of summer and autumn was taken the second place, the ET0 of winter was last. The ET0 of spring, summer, autumn, winter was account for 33.35 per cent, 28.91 per cent, 20.36, per cent, 17.39 per cent of annual ET0 respectively. The ET0 of May was highest and December was least in annual. ET0 was closely related to wind speed, relative humidity, hours of sunshine and the daily maximum temperature. The correlation between wind speed, hours of sunshine, the daily maximum temperature and ET0 was very significantly positive, while the correlation between relative humidity and ET0 was very significantly negative.

Active layer thermal monitoring at Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, Maritime Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Roberto; Schaefer, Carlos; Simas, Felipe; Pregesbauer, Michael; Bockheim, James

2013-04-01

International attention on the climate change phenomena has grown in the last decade, intense modelling of climate scenarios were carried out by scientific investigations searching the sources and trends of these changes. The cryosphere and its energy flux became the focus of many investigations, being recognised as a key element for the understanding of future trends. The active layer and permafrost are key components of the terrestrial cryosphere due to their role in energy flux regulation and high sensitivity to climate change (Kane et al., 2001; Smith and Brown, 2009). Compared with other regions of the globe, our understanding of Antarctic permafrost is poor, especially in relation to its thermal state and evolution, its physical properties, links to pedogenesis, hydrology, geomorphic dynamics and response to global change (Bockheim, 1995, Bockheim et al., 2008). The active layer monitoring site was installed in the summer of 2008, and consist of thermistors (accuracy ± 0.2 °C) arranged in a vertical array (Turbic Eutric Cryosol 600 m asl, 10.5 cm, 32.5 cm, 67.5 cm and 83.5 cm). King George Island experiences a cold moist maritime climate characterized by mean annual air temperatures of -2°C and mean summer air temperatures above 0°C for up to four months (Rakusa-Suszczewski et al., 1993, Wen et al., 1994). Ferron et al., (2004) found great variability when analysing data from 1947 to1995 and identified cycles of 5.3 years of colder conditions followed by 9.6 years of warmer conditions. All probes were connected to a Campbell Scientific CR 1000 data logger recording data at hourly intervals from March 1st 2008 until November 30th 2012. Meteorological data for Fildes was obtained from the near by stations. We calculated the thawing days, freezing days; thawing degree days and freezing degree days; all according to Guglielmin et al. (2008). The active lawyer thickness was calculated as the 0 °C depth by extrapolating the thermal gradient from the two deepest temperature measurements (Guglielmin, 2006). Interannual variability of the active layer shows parallel behaviour despite contrasts between different years, the temperature at 10.5 cm reaches a maximum daily average (4.06 °C ± 0.46) in early January, reaching a minimum (-8.03 °C ± 1,36) between late July and early August. At 83.5 cm maximum temperature (0.30 °C ± 0.24) occurs in late March and the minimum reading (-4.06 °C ± 0.98) was recorded around mid August. Disparities can be noticed when comparing the different years; 2008 had a mild winter (21 freezing days and -0,88 freezing degree days at 83.5 cm in July) contrasted by a severe winter in 2011 (31 freezing days and -80,00 freezing degree days at 83.5 cm in July), the summer of 2009 was considerably warmer (31 thawing days and 64,77 thawing degree days at 10.5 cm in January ) compared to the summer of 2010 (17 thawing days and 21,15 thawing degree days at 10.5 cm in January). Active layer thickness varied between 67 cm (max of 2012, March) and 101 cm (max of 2009, March). The active layer thermal regime in the studied period for both soils was typical of periglacial environments, with extreme variation in surface during summer resulting in frequent freeze and thaw cycles. Despite the variability when comparing temperature readings and active layer thickness over the studied period no trend can be identified.

Nest temperature fluctuations in a cavity nester, the southern ground-hornbill.

PubMed

Combrink, L; Combrink, H J; Botha, A J; Downs, C T

2017-05-01

Southern ground-hornbills Bucorvus leadbeateri inhabit savanna and bushveld regions of South Africa. They nest in the austral summer, which coincides with the wet season and hottest daytime temperatures in the region. They are secondary cavity nesters and typically nest in large cavities in trees, cliffs and earth banks, but readily use artificial nest boxes. Southern ground-hornbills are listed as Endangered in South Africa, with reintroductions into suitable areas highlighted as a viable conservation intervention for the species. Nest microclimate, and the possible implications this may have for the breeding biology of southern ground-hornbills, have never been investigated. We used temperature dataloggers to record nest cavity temperature and ambient temperature for one artificial and 11 natural southern ground-hornbill tree cavity nests combined, spanning two breeding seasons. Mean hourly nest temperature, as well as mean minimum and mean maximum nest temperature, differed significantly between southern ground-hornbill nests in both breeding seasons. Mean nest temperature also differed significantly from mean ambient temperature for both seasons. Natural nest cavities provided a buffer against the ambient temperature fluctuations. The artificial nest provided little insulation against temperature extremes, being warmer and cooler than the maximum and minimum local ambient temperatures, respectively. Nest cavity temperature was not found to have an influence on the breeding success of the southern ground-hornbill groups investigated in this study. These results have potentially important implications for southern ground-hornbill conservation and artificial nest design, as they suggest that the birds can tolerate greater nest cavity temperature extremes than previously thought. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future equivalent of 2010 Russian heatwave intensified by weakening soil moisture constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmijn, L. M.; van der Schrier, G.; Bintanja, R.; Barkmeijer, J.; Sterl, A.; Hazeleger, W.

2018-05-01

The 2010 heatwave in eastern Europe and Russia ranks among the hottest events ever recorded in the region1,2. The excessive summer warmth was related to an anomalously widespread and intense quasi-stationary anticyclonic circulation anomaly over western Russia, reinforced by depletion of spring soil moisture1,3-5. At present, high soil moisture levels and strong surface evaporation generally tend to cap maximum summer temperatures6-8, but these constraints may weaken under future warming9,10. Here, we use a data assimilation technique in which future climate model simulations are nudged to realistically represent the persistence and strength of the 2010 blocked atmospheric flow. In the future, synoptically driven extreme warming under favourable large-scale atmospheric conditions will no longer be suppressed by abundant soil moisture, leading to a disproportional intensification of future heatwaves. This implies that future mid-latitude heatwaves analogous to the 2010 event will become even more extreme than previously thought, with temperature extremes increasing by 8.4 °C over western Russia. Thus, the socioeconomic impacts of future heatwaves will probably be amplified beyond current estimates.

Seasonal variations of isoprene emissions from deciduous trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiaoshan, Zhang; Yujing, Mu; Wenzhi, Song; Yahui, Zhuang

Isoprene emission fluxes were investigated for 12 tree species in and around Beijing city. Bag-enclosure method was used to collect the air sample and GC-PID was used to directly analyze isoprene. Ginkgo and Magnolia denudata had negligible isoprene emissions, while significant emissions were observed for Platanus orientalis, Pendula loud, Populus simonii, and Salix matsudana koidz, and other remaining trees showed no sign of isoprene emission. Variations in isoprene emission with changes in light, temperature and season were investigated for Platanus orientalis and Pendula loud. Isoprene emission rates strongly depended on light, temperature and leaf age. The maximum emission rates for the two trees were observed in summer with values of about 232 and 213 μg g -1 dw h -1, respectively. The measured emission fluxes were used to evaluate "Guenther" emission algorithm. The emission fluxes predicted by the algorithm were in relatively good agreement with field measurements. However, there were large differences for the calculated median emission factors during spring, summer and fall. The 25-75 percentiles span of the emission factor data sets ranged from -33 to +15% of the median values.

Does maternal exposure during pregnancy to higher ambient temperature increase the risk of hypospadias?

PubMed

Kilinc, Muhammet Fatih; Cakmak, Sedat; Demir, Demirhan Orsan; Doluoglu, Omer Gokhan; Yildiz, Yildiray; Horasanli, Kaya; Dalkilic, Ayhan

2016-12-01

The association between ambient temperature that the mother is exposed to during pregnancy and hypospadias has not been investigated by the studies, although the recent studies showed the correlation between some congenital malformations (congenital heart disease, neural tube defect, etc.) and ambient temperature. The aim was to investigate the relation between hypospadias and the ambient temperatures that the mother is exposed to during her pregnancy. The data of patients with hypospadias that had their gestational periods in Ankara and Istanbul regions, and had other urological treatments (circumcision, urinary tract infection, pyeloplasty, nephrolithotomy, etc.) between January 2000 and November 2015 were analyzed retrospectively. The ambient temperature at 8-14 weeks of gestation was investigated for each patient by reviewing the data of the General Directorate of Meteorology, since this period was risky for development of hypospadias. The data including ambient temperature that the pregnant mother was exposed to, maternal age, parity, economical status, gestational age at birth, and birth weight were compared between two groups. The retrospective nature of the study may be a potential source for selection bias. The data of 1,709 children that had hypospadias repair and 4,946 children that had other urological treatments between 2000 and 2015 were retrospectively analyzed. There were no differences between the groups for maternal age, parity, economical status, gestational age at birth, and birth weight (Table). Analysis of exposed maximum and average ambient temperatures at 8-14 weeks of gestation revealed that July and August, hot periods in summer time, were more prevalent in the hypospadias group (p = 0.01). The average and maximum monthly ambient temperatures during summer increased the risk for hypospadias (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.08-1.52; and OR, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.99-1.54, respectively. In this paper, we evaluated the relation between hypospadias and the ambient temperatures that the mother is exposed during her pregnancy. The results of this study indicated that the high ambient temperatures the mother and fetus are exposed to at 8-14 weeks of gestation increased the risk of hypospadias in the offspring. Copyright © 2016 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of summer heat environment on body temperature, estrous cycles and blood antioxidant levels in Japanese Black cow.

PubMed

Sakatani, Miki; Balboula, Ahmed Z; Yamanaka, Kenichi; Takahashi, Masashi

2012-05-01

This study investigated the effect of summer heat environment on estrous cycles and blood antioxidant levels in Japanese Black cows. A total of 13 non-lactating Japanese Black cows (summer: 9, winter: 4) were examined. Body temperature was measured rectally and intravaginally using a thermometer and data logger, respectively. Estrous behavior was monitored using a radiotelemetric pedometer that recorded walking activity. Rectal temperatures were higher during summer than winter (P<0.001). There was an acute increase in vaginal temperature at the onset of estrus during winter but such an increase was not observed during summer. Walking activity during estrus decreased dramatically in the summer compared to the winter. Duration of estrous cycle was longer in summer (23.4 days, P<0.05) than winter (21.5 days), and the subsequent rise in progesterone concentrations following estrus tended to be delayed in summer. The level of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) in peripheral blood cells was higher during summer (P<0.05), while the levels of superoixde dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPx) and glutathione were lower (P<0.05). These results indicate that high ambient temperature during summer increases both body temperature and oxidative stress, and also reduces signs of estrus in Japanese Black cows. © 2011 The Authors. Animal Science Journal © 2011 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Ilot de Chaleur a Quebec: Cas d'hiver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, Richard; Jacques, Ghislain; Ferland, Michel; Le Lièvre, Claude

1981-11-01

This paper describes the urban heat island in Quebec City on a typical clear winter night. This is a follow-up to a study made on a summer night in August 1980; the reader will find a detailed description of the region in Leduc et al. (1980). On February 25, 1980 at 21:30 EST, nearly 200 measurements of temperature were taken at preselected points by 17 mobile observers; a mini-sonde was launched near the Duberger meteorological tower while upper air data were obtained from a sonde launched at Valcartier CFB. Additional data were available from the five regular climatological stations in greater Quebec City and from 2 other thermographs in order to evaluate cooling rates. On the day of the 25th, a developing low pressure area over the eastern coast brought cold air from the northwest toward Quebec City. On that day, the maximum temperature was - 1 °C while the minimum on the following night dropped to - 19 °C. At the time of the experiment, the sky was clear and the winds were westerly at 1.5 m s-1 at the surface and northwesterly at 6 m s-1 at 122 m. A strong inversion was present in the lowest 200 m while upper inversions were noted on the upper air sounding. As noted in the summer experiment, cooling rates, according to the Oke et al. (1972) criteria, reflected a rural behaviour at all stations equipped with a thermograph. It is to be noted that no data on cooling rates are available for the highly urbanized sectors. One notes a relatively warm zone in the downtown area where temperature reached - 8 °C; there is also a cold zone, at the same location as during the summer experiment. The mean temperature gradient between the urban and rural sectors was 5 °C, which is comparable with that observed in August 1979 (6 °C). Thus, the urban heat island does not seem to be more intense in winter than in summer. Relatively large areas of uniform temperature were detected at places where the summer experiment indicated sharp spatial contrasts; this could be attributed to the presence of snow on the ground. The great number of measurements taken in the more urbanized sector revealed a complex spatial arrangement of smaller heat islands which are separated by boulevards or open areas (covered with snow). For the city dwellers, the temperature differences resulted in relatively sharp contrasts in clothing requirements for comfort. Urban morphology was analyzed and a multiple regression model was formulated between temperature on the one hand and altitude, land use and distance to the warmest point, on the other hand. It shows that, for both winter and summer the most important factor in explaining the heat island is distance to the warmest point while land use comes second; distance explains the form and land use explains the fine structure of the heat island.

The Shifting Climate Portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area

PubMed Central

Sepulveda, Adam J.; Tercek, Michael T.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Ray, Andrew M.; Thoma, David P.; Hossack, Blake R.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Rodman, Ann W.; Olliff, Tom

2015-01-01

Knowledge of climatic variability at small spatial extents (< 50 km) is needed to assess vulnerabilities of biological reserves to climate change. We used empirical and modeled weather station data to test if climate change has increased the synchrony of surface air temperatures among 50 sites within the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) of the interior western United States. This important biological reserve is the largest protected area in the Lower 48 states and provides critical habitat for some of the world’s most iconic wildlife. We focused our analyses on temporal shifts and shape changes in the annual distributions of seasonal minimum and maximum air temperatures among valley-bottom and higher elevation sites from 1948–2012. We documented consistent patterns of warming since 1948 at all 50 sites, with the most pronounced changes occurring during the Winter and Summer when minimum and maximum temperature distributions increased. These shifts indicate more hot temperatures and less cold temperatures would be expected across the GYA. Though the shifting statistical distributions indicate warming, little change in the shape of the temperature distributions across sites since 1948 suggest the GYA has maintained a diverse portfolio of temperatures within a year. Spatial heterogeneity in temperatures is likely maintained by the GYA’s physiographic complexity and its large size, which encompasses multiple climate zones that respond differently to synoptic drivers. Having a diverse portfolio of temperatures may help biological reserves spread the extinction risk posed by climate change. PMID:26674185

The shifting climate portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepulveda, Adam; Tercek, Mike T; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Ray, Andrew; Thoma, David P.; Hossack, Blake R.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Rodman, Ann; Olliff, Tom

2015-01-01

Knowledge of climatic variability at small spatial extents (< 50 km) is needed to assess vulnerabilities of biological reserves to climate change. We used empirical and modeled weather station data to test if climate change has increased the synchrony of surface air temperatures among 50 sites within the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) of the interior western United States. This important biological reserve is the largest protected area in the Lower 48 states and provides critical habitat for some of the world’s most iconic wildlife. We focused our analyses on temporal shifts and shape changes in the annual distributions of seasonal minimum and maximum air temperatures among valley-bottom and higher elevation sites from 1948–2012. We documented consistent patterns of warming since 1948 at all 50 sites, with the most pronounced changes occurring during the Winter and Summer when minimum and maximum temperature distributions increased. These shifts indicate more hot temperatures and less cold temperatures would be expected across the GYA. Though the shifting statistical distributions indicate warming, little change in the shape of the temperature distributions across sites since 1948 suggest the GYA has maintained a diverse portfolio of temperatures within a year. Spatial heterogeneity in temperatures is likely maintained by the GYA’s physiographic complexity and its large size, which encompasses multiple climate zones that respond differently to synoptic drivers. Having a diverse portfolio of temperatures may help biological reserves spread the extinction risk posed by climate change.

Non-linear trends and fluctuations in temperature during different growth stages of summer maize in the North China Plain from 1960 to 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cailin; Wu, Jidong; Wang, Xu; He, Xin; Li, Ning

2017-12-01

North China Plain has undergone severe warming trends since the 1950s, but whether this trend is the same during different growth phases for crops remains unknown. Thus, we analyzed the non-linear changes in the minimum temperature (T min ), mean temperature (T mean ) and maximum temperature (T max ) using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method during each growth stage of summer maize based on daily temperature data from 1960 to 2014. Our results strongly suggest that the trends and fluctuations in temperature change are non-linear. These changes can be categorized into four types of trend change according to the combinations of decreasing and increasing trends, and 8 fluctuation modes dominated by the fluctuations of expansion and shrinkage. The amplitude of the fluctuation is primarily expansion in the sowing-jointing stage and shrinkage in the jointing-maturity stage. Moreover, the temperature changes are inconsistent within each growth stage and are not consistent with the overall warming trend observed over the last 55 years. A transition period occurred in both the 1980s and the 1990s for temperatures during the sowing-tasseling stage. Furthermore, the cooling trend of the T max was significant in the sowing-emergence stage, while this cooling trend was not obvious for both T mean and T min in the jointing-tasseling stage. These results showed that temperature change was significantly different in different stages of the maize growth season. The results can serve as a scientific basis for a better understanding of the actual changes in the regional surface air temperature and agronomic heat resources.

Mesospheric temperatures estimated from the meteor radar observations at Mohe, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Libo; Liu, Huixin; Le, Huijun; Chen, Yiding; Sun, Yang-Yi; Ning, Baiqi; Hu, Lianhuan; Wan, Weixing; Li, Na; Xiong, Jiangang

2017-02-01

In this work, we report the estimation of mesospheric temperatures at 90 km height from the observations of the VHF all-sky meteor radar operated at Mohe (53.5°N, 122.3°E), China, since August 2011. The kinetic temperature profiles retrieved from the observations of Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) on board the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics, and Dynamics satellite are processed to provide the temperature (TSABER) and temperature gradient (dT/dh) at 90 km height. Based on the SABER temperature profile data an empirical dT/dh model is developed for the Mohe latitude. First, we derive the temperatures from the meteor decay times (Tmeteor) and the Mohe dT/dh model gives prior information of temperature gradients. Second, the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the meteor height profiles is calculated and further used to deduce the temperatures (TFWHM) based on the strong linear relationship between FWHM and TSABER. The temperatures at 90 km deduced from the decay times (Tmeteor) and from the meteor height distributions (TFWHM) at Mohe are validated/calibrated with TSABER. The temperatures present a considerable annual variation, being maximum in winter and minimum in summer. Harmonic analyses reveal that the temperatures have an annual variation consistent with TSABER. Our work suggests that FWHM has a good performance in routine estimation of the temperatures. It should be pointed out that the slope of FWHM as a function of TSABER is 10.1 at Mohe, which is different from that of 15.71 at King Sejong (62.2°S, 58.8°E) station.

Ozone Climatology for Portsmouth, NH 1978-2002

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wake, C. P.; Miller, S. T.

2003-12-01

Hourly ozone mixing ratios have been monitored in Portsmouth, NH since 1978 for the typical "summer" ozone season (April to October) by the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services. This 25 year record provides the basis to investigate seasonal variability in daily summertime ozone levels in Portsmouth NH and evaluate the relationship between ozone mixing ratios, temperature, precipitation, and the state of El Niño/Southern Oscillation. The overall goal of this research is to identify significant relationships between high ozone days and a suite of climate variables. The mean daily ozone mixing ratio in Portsmouth from 1977 through 2002 was 40 ppbv (sd 17 ppbv) with a mean of 6 days per summer when maxiumum 8 hour ozone levels exceed the 80 ppbv level. The highest ozone levels usually occur during June, July and August (with a peak in July), but high ozone days also occur May and September. April and October rarely experience high ozone. High ozone in coastal New Hampshire (and for most of New England) occurs predominantly on days when maximum temperatures are above 85 oF, although there are also may hot days when ozone levels do not reach elevated levels. Analysis of the relationship between number of days per year when 8 hour ozone is greater than 80 ppbv and maximum temperatures are greater than 85 oF indicates that there is a positive correlation (r = 0.60). Surprisingly, there is not a strong inverse relationship between ozone days and precipitation. For example, over the last 25 years, 1988 clearly stands out with 20 days with maximum 8 hour ozone above 80 ppbv. However, 1988 also experienced considerable precipitation in July and August (14.1 inches compared to the climatological mean of 6.7 inches) and relatively few days without precipitation (38 compared to the climatological mean of 44). There are differences in temperature, precipitation, and ozone levels in Portsmouth during years that are classified as El Ni¤o and neutral, compared to La Nina years. However, we have only experienced one strong La Nina year in the past 25 years, so the results must be viewed with caution. The La Nina year (1988) experience high ozone and more frequent hot days, as well as double the average precipitation. El Niño years experience slightly warmer, dryer and experience more frequent ozone days, although they are not significantly different from neutral years. Our results indicate that hot summers are indeed related to higher than average ozone levels, although there is considerable variability in this relationship. There does not appear to be a consistent ozone - precipitation relationship. Further work is needed to define these relationships for a larger number of stations throughout New England and also for comparison to broader synoptic to hemispheric circulation patterns and sea surface temperatures.

A coupled physical-biological pelagic model of a shallow sill fjord

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksnes, Dag L.; Lie, Ulf

1990-10-01

A vertically resolved model for the land-locked fjord Lindåspollene, western Norway is presented. Salinity, temperature, oxygen, nitrogen-nutrients, silicate, and two groups of phytoplankton and herbivores are represented as dynamic variables. From 'below' the model is driven by solar radiation, precipitation, wind and tidal exchange and from 'above' by herbivore mortality. Simulation results are presented and discussed together with actual observations from Lindåspollene. The main seasonal and vertical characteristics of the phytoplankton and herbivore dynamics seem to be well reflected by the model, and realistic seasonal patterns may be produced for several successive years. The most characteristic vertical features are the formation of a summer surface production maximum and a deep chlorophyll maximum. Furthermore, a herbivore biomass which develops in the surface layer divides into a shallow and a deep component during summer and becomes concentrated in the surface layer again in the autumn. The nutricline and the pycnocline develop independently of one another, with consequences for the supply of nutrients to the upper euphotic zone. The bottom-up control exerted by the meteorological forcing, especially the freshwater runoff, seems to be of paramount significance for the observed vertical structure and seasonality of the present fjord system.

Modeling the influence of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions on ozone concentration during summer season in the Kinki region of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Hai; Shrestha, Kundan Lal; Kondo, Akira; Kaga, Akikazu; Inoue, Yoshio

2010-01-01

Tropospheric ozone adversely affects human health and vegetation, and biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emission has potential to influence ozone concentration in summer season. In this research, the standard emissions of isoprene and monoterpene from the vegetation of the Kinki region of Japan, estimated from growth chamber experiments, were converted into hourly emissions for July 2002 using the temperature and light intensity data obtained from results of MM5 meteorological model. To investigate the effect of BVOC emissions on ozone production, two ozone simulations for one-month period of July 2002 were carried out. In one simulation, hourly BVOC emissions were included (BIO), while in the other one, BVOC emissions were not considered (NOBIO). The quantitative analyses of the ozone results clearly indicate that the use of spatio-temporally varying BVOC emission improves the prediction of ozone concentration. The hourly differences of monthly-averaged ozone concentrations between BIO and NOBIO had the maximum value of 6 ppb at 1400 JST. The explicit difference appeared in urban area, though the place where the maximum difference occurred changed with time. Overall, BVOC emissions from the forest vegetation strongly affected the ozone generation in the urban area.

Ecology and demographics of Pacific sand lance, Ammodytes hexapterus Pallas, in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robards, Martin D.; Piatt, John F.

2000-01-01

Distinct sand lance populations occur within the relatively small geographic area of Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska. Marked meso-scale differences in abundance, growth, and mortality exist as a consequence of differing oceanographic regimes. Growth rate within populations (between years) was positively correlated with temperature. However, this did not extend to inter-population comparisons where differing growth rates were better correlated to marine productivity. Most sand lance reached maturity in their second year. Field observations and indices of maturity, gonad development, and ova-size distribution all indicated that sand lance spawn once each year. Sand lance spawned intertidally in late September and October on fine gravel/sandy beaches. Embryos developed over 67 days through periods of intertidal exposure and sub-freezing air temperatures. Mean dry-weight energy value of sand lance cycles seasonally, peaking in spring and early summer (20.91 kJg-1 for males, 21.08 kJg-1 for females), and subsequently declining by about 25% during late summer and fall (15.91 kJg-1 for males, 15.74 kJg-1 for females). Sand lance enter the winter with close to their minimum whole body energy content. Dry weight energy densities of juveniles increased from a minimum 16.67 kJg-1 to a maximum of 19.68 kJg-1 and are higher than adults in late summer.

Recent increase in maximum temperature at the tropical treeline of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondi, F.

2009-12-01

There are only a handful of weather stations above 3000 m in the entire American Cordillera, from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego. I present a surface instrumental record of high elevation (treeline) ecoclimatic variables for the tropics of North America. Besides its high elevation (3760 m) and tropical (19.5°N) features, this site is also located in the North American Monsoon System, making the data relevant to a broad suite of environmental issues. Automated half-hour data collected on Nevado de Colima, Mexico, from 2001 to 2009 show an increase in maximum temperature during the dry winter season, while incoming solar radiation remained stationary. Since minimum temperature did not increase as much, the daily range of air temperature has expanded over time. At this elevation, with average daily barometric pressure of 655 ± 1.4 hPa, maximum temperatures reflect the annual and daily energy cycle because of the dominant role of ground heating caused by incoming shortwave radiation. In fact, spring is the warmest season in this area, as it is followed by pronounced cooling during the summer monsoon because of increased cloudiness. The observed warming is associated with reduced wind speed, especially around solar noon, and is therefore most likely driven by reduced atmospheric flow, suggesting that the energy and water balance of high elevation tropical ecosystems are changing in unexpected ways. Further measurements and regional modeling experiments are therefore needed, given the staggering consequences this could have for any resource managers and policy makers concerned with trans-boundary (Mexico-US) terrestrial, coastal, and oceanic issues.

Effect of Climate Change on Water Temperature and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

There is increasing evidence that our planet is warming and this warming is also resulting in rising sea levels. Estuaries which are located at the interface between land and ocean are impacted by these changes. We used CE-QUAL-W2 water quality model to predict changes in water temperature as a function of increasing air temperatures and rising sea level for the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA). Annual average air temperature in the Yaquina watershed is expected to increase about 0.3 deg C per decade by 2040-2069. An air temperature increase of 3 deg C in the Yaquina watershed is likely to result in estuarine water temperature increasing by 0.7 to 1.6 deg C. Largest water temperature increases are expected in the upper portion of the estuary, while sea level rise may ameliorate some of the warming in the lower portion of the estuary. Smallest changes in water temperature are predicted to occur in the summer, and maximum changes during the winter and spring. Increases in air temperature may result in an increase in the number of days per year that the 7-day maximum average temperature exceeds 18 deg C (criterion for protection of rearing and migration of salmonids and trout) as well as other water quality concerns. In the upstream portion of the estuary, a 4 deg C increase in air temperature is predicted to cause an increase of 40 days not meeting the temperature criterion, while in the lower estuary the increase will depend upon rate of sea level rise (rang

Preparation and thermal properties of mineral-supported polyethylene glycol as form-stable composite phase change materials (CPCMs) used in asphalt pavements.

PubMed

Jin, Jiao; Lin, Feipeng; Liu, Ruohua; Xiao, Ting; Zheng, Jianlong; Qian, Guoping; Liu, Hongfu; Wen, Pihua

2017-12-05

Three kinds of mineral-supported polyethylene glycol (PEG) as form-stable composite phase change materials (CPCMs) were prepared to choose the most suitable CPCMs in asphalt pavements for the problems of asphalt pavements rutting diseases and urban heat islands. The microstructure and chemical structure of CPCMs were characterized by SEM, FT-IR and XRD. Thermal properties of the CPCMs were determined by TG and DSC. The maximum PEG absorption of diatomite (DI), expanded perlite (EP) and expanded vermiculite (EVM) could reach 72%, 67% and 73.6%, respectively. The melting temperatures and latent heat of CPCMs are in the range of 52-55 °C and 100-115 J/g, respectively. The results show that PEG/EP has the best thermal and chemical stability after 100 times of heating-cooling process. Moreover, crystallization fraction results show that PEG/EP has slightly higher latent heats than that of PEG/DI and PEG/EVM. Temperature-adjusting asphalt mixture was prepared by substituting the fine aggregates with PEG/EP CPCMs. The upper surface maximum temperature difference of temperature-adjusting asphalt mixture reaches about 7.0 °C in laboratory, and the surface peak temperature reduces up to 4.3 °C in the field experiment during a typical summer day, indicating a great potential application for regulating pavement temperature field and alleviating the urban heat islands.

A Statistical Model-Based Decision Support System for Managing Summer Stream Temperatures with Quantified Confidence Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neumann, D. W.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

2005-12-01

Warm summer stream temperatures due to low flows and high air temperatures are a critical water quality problem in many western U.S. river basins because they impact threatened fish species' habitat. Releases from storage reservoirs and river diversions are typically driven by human demands such as irrigation, municipal and industrial uses and hydropower production. Historically, fish needs have not been formally incorporated in the operating procedures, which do not supply adequate flows for fish in the warmest, driest periods. One way to address this problem is for local and federal organizations to purchase water rights to be used to increase flows, hence decrease temperatures. A statistical model-predictive technique for efficient and effective use of a limited supply of fish water has been developed and incorporated in a Decision Support System (DSS) that can be used in an operations mode to effectively use water acquired to mitigate warm stream temperatures. The DSS is a rule-based system that uses the empirical, statistical predictive model to predict maximum daily stream temperatures based on flows that meet the non-fish operating criteria, and to compute reservoir releases of allocated fish water when predicted temperatures exceed fish habitat temperature targets with a user specified confidence of the temperature predictions. The empirical model is developed using a step-wise linear regression procedure to select significant predictors, and includes the computation of a prediction confidence interval to quantify the uncertainty of the prediction. The DSS also includes a strategy for managing a limited amount of water throughout the season based on degree-days in which temperatures are allowed to exceed the preferred targets for a limited number of days that can be tolerated by the fish. The DSS is demonstrated by an example application to the Truckee River near Reno, Nevada using historical flows from 1988 through 1994. In this case, the statistical model predicts maximum daily Truckee River stream temperatures in June, July, and August using predicted maximum daily air temperature and modeled average daily flow. The empirical relationship was created using a step-wise linear regression selection process using 1993 and 1994 data. The adjusted R2 value for this relationship is 0.91. The model is validated using historic data and demonstrated in a predictive mode with a prediction confidence interval to quantify the uncertainty. Results indicate that the DSS could substantially reduce the number of target temperature violations, i.e., stream temperatures exceeding the target temperature levels detrimental to fish habitat. The results show that large volumes of water are necessary to meet a temperature target with a high degree of certainty and violations may still occur if all of the stored water is depleted. A lower degree of certainty requires less water but there is a higher probability that the temperature targets will be exceeded. Addition of the rules that consider degree-days resulted in a reduction of the number of temperature violations without increasing the amount of water used. This work is described in detail in publications referenced in the URL below.

Interannual variability in stratiform cloudiness and sea surface temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Joel R.; Leovy, Conway B.

1994-01-01

Marine stratiform cloudiness (MSC)(stratus, stratocumulus, and fog) is widespread over subtropical oceans west of the continents and over midlatitude oceans during summer, the season when MSC has maximum influence on surface downward radiation and is most influenced by boundary-layer processes. Long-term datasets of cloudiness and sea surface teperature (SST) from surface observations from 1952 to 1981 are used to examine interannual variations in MSC and SST. Linear correlations of anomalies in seasonal MSC amount with seasonal SST anomalies are negative and significant in midlatitude and eastern subtropical oceans, especially during summer. Significant negative correlations between SST and nimbostratus and nonprecipitating midlevel cloudiness are also observed at midlatitudes during summer, suggesting that summer storm tracks shift from year to year following year-to-year meridional shifts in the SST gradient. Over the 30-yr period, there are significant upward trends in MSC amount over the northern midlatitude oceans and a significant downward trend off the coast of California. The highest correlations and trends occur where gradients in MSC and SST are strongest. During summer, correlations between SST and MSC anomalies peak at zero lag in midlatitudes where warm advection prevails, but SST lags MSC in subtropical regions where cold advection predominates. This difference is attributed to a tendency for anomalies in latent heat flux to compensate anomalies in surface downward radiation in warm advection regions but not in cold advection regions.

Uncertainties in observations and climate projections for the North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soraisam, Bidyabati; Karumuri, Ashok; D. S., Pai

2018-01-01

The Northeast-India has undergone many changes in climatic-vegetation related issues in the last few decades due to increased human activities. However, lack of observations makes it difficult to ascertain the climate change. The study involves the mean, seasonal cycle, trend and extreme-month analysis for summer-monsoon and winter seasons of observed climate data from Indian Meteorological Department (1° × 1°) and Aphrodite & CRU-reanalysis (both 0.5° × 0.5°), and five regional-climate-model simulations (LMDZ, MPI, GFDL, CNRM and ACCESS) data from AR5/CORDEX-South-Asia (0.5° × 0.5°). Long-term (1970-2005) observed, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and precipitation, and the corresponding CORDEX-South-Asia data for historical (1970-2005) and future-projections of RCP4.5 (2011-2060) have been analyzed for long-term trends. A large spread is found across the models in spatial distributions of various mean maximum/minimum climate statistics, though models capture a similar trend in the corresponding area-averaged seasonal cycles qualitatively. Our observational analysis broadly suggests that there is no significant trend in rainfall. Significant trends are observed in the area-averaged minimum temperature during winter. All the CORDEX-South-Asia simulations for the future project either a decreasing insignificant trend in seasonal precipitation, but increasing trend for both seasonal maximum and minimum temperature over the northeast India. The frequency of extreme monthly maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase. It is not clear from future projections how the extreme rainfall months during JJAS may change. The results show the uncertainty exists in the CORDEX-South-Asia model projections over the region in spite of the relatively high resolution.

Incidence of Temperature Inversion and their Impact on Air Quality: A Case Study of Delhi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, V. P.

2016-12-01

In troposphere, an increase in temperature with the altitude produces stable atmosphere which prohibits the air pollutants dispersion. This study investigates the phenomenon of temperature inversion (TI), Lapse rate (LR) and its effects on air quality in respect of Ozone (O3), CO2, CO & PM2.5 over a megacity- Delhi (Study Time Period: 2006-2012). Because of huge population, urban sprawl and orographic location, this study can be very helpful for Delhi and cities like Delhi. Radiosonde observations for temperature was used for TI calculations over the region. Results indicate that TI generally occurs at 975-850 hPa. Also, the maximum number of inversions occur during winter months (December and January) especially at night time and early mornings. Furthermore, during winter months, the incidence of inversion is highest at both 00UTC and 12UTC while it is least during the monsoon months (July and August) at 00UTC. The LR is maximum in terms of magnitude (i.e. highly negative) during the summer months (May & June) every year indicating the strong heating effects that takes place during the day time in summer and also because the sensible heat flux from the surface to the atmosphere is significant even at 12UTC (i.e. around 5.30 P.M.) The bivariate correlation analysis for air quality variables reveals negative relationship of all air quality variables except O3 with rainfall. A positive relationship of LR with all air quality variables, except O3, was observed indicating the increase in pollutants' concentrations with an increase in LR. The correlation coefficient between LR and air pollutants CO, NO, NO2, PM2.5 were found to be 0.463, 0.346, 0.249 and 0.673 respectively. A negative correlation was found between wind speed and most of the air pollutants. Also, significantly, O3 had been the only air pollutant having a negative relationship with LR (both at 00UTC &12UTC).

Regional atmospheric cooling and wetting effect of permafrost thaw-induced boreal forest loss.

PubMed

Helbig, Manuel; Wischnewski, Karoline; Kljun, Natascha; Chasmer, Laura E; Quinton, William L; Detto, Matteo; Sonnentag, Oliver

2016-12-01

In the sporadic permafrost zone of North America, thaw-induced boreal forest loss is leading to permafrost-free wetland expansion. These land cover changes alter landscape-scale surface properties with potentially large, however, still unknown impacts on regional climates. In this study, we combine nested eddy covariance flux tower measurements with satellite remote sensing to characterize the impacts of boreal forest loss on albedo, eco-physiological and aerodynamic surface properties, and turbulent energy fluxes of a lowland boreal forest region in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Planetary boundary layer modelling is used to estimate the potential forest loss impact on regional air temperature and atmospheric moisture. We show that thaw-induced conversion of forests to wetlands increases albedo: and bulk surface conductance for water vapour and decreases aerodynamic surface temperature. At the same time, heat transfer efficiency is reduced. These shifts in land surface properties increase latent at the expense of sensible heat fluxes, thus, drastically reducing Bowen ratios. Due to the lower albedo of forests and their masking effect of highly reflective snow, available energy is lower in wetlands, especially in late winter. Modelling results demonstrate that a conversion of a present-day boreal forest-wetland to a hypothetical homogeneous wetland landscape could induce a near-surface cooling effect on regional air temperatures of up to 3-4 °C in late winter and 1-2 °C in summer. An atmospheric wetting effect in summer is indicated by a maximum increase in water vapour mixing ratios of 2 mmol mol -1 . At the same time, maximum boundary layer heights are reduced by about a third of the original height. In fall, simulated air temperature and atmospheric moisture between the two scenarios do not differ. Therefore, permafrost thaw-induced boreal forest loss may modify regional precipitation patterns and slow down regional warming trends. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seasonality intensification and long-term winter cooling as a part of the Late Pliocene climate development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klotz, Stefan; Fauquette, Séverine; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Uhl, Dieter; Suc, Jean-Pierre; Mosbrugger, Volker

2006-01-01

A mutual climatic range method is applied to the Mediterranean marine pollen record of Semaforo (Vrica section, Calabria, Italy) covering the period from ∼2.46 Ma to ∼2.11 Ma. The method yields detailed information on summer, annual and winter temperatures and on precipitation during the nine obliquity and precession-controlled 'glacial' periods (marine isotope stages 96 to 80) and eight 'interglacial' periods (marine isotope stages 95 to 81) characterising this time interval. The reconstruction reveals higher temperatures of at least 2.8 °C in mean annual and 2.2 °C in winter temperatures, and 500 mm in precipitation during the 'interglacials' as compared to the present-day climate in the study area. During the 'glacials', temperatures are generally lower as compared to the present-day climate in the region, but precipitation is equivalent. Along the consecutive 'interglacials', a trend toward a reduction in annual and winter temperatures by more than 2.3 °C, and toward a higher seasonality is observed. Along the consecutive 'glacials', a trend toward a strong reduction in all temperature parameters of at least 1.6 °C is reconstructed. Climatic amplitudes of 'interglacial-glacial' transitions increase from the older to the younger cycles for summer and annual temperatures. The cross-spectral analyses suggest obliquity related warm/humid-cold/dry 'interglacial-glacial' cycles which are superimposed by precession related warm/dry- cold/humid cycles. A time displacement in the development of temperatures and precipitation is indicated for the obliquity band by temperatures generally leading precipitation change at ∼4 kyr, and on the precession band of ∼9.6 kyr in maximum.

Trends in summer bottom-water temperatures on the northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf from 1985 to 2015.

PubMed

Turner, R Eugene; Rabalais, Nancy N; Justić, Dubravko

2017-01-01

We quantified trends in the 1985 to 2015 summer bottom-water temperature on the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) continental shelf for data collected at 88 stations with depths ranging from 3 to 63 m. The analysis was supplemented with monthly data collected from 1963 to 1965 in the same area. The seasonal summer peak in average bottom-water temperature varied concurrently with air temperature, but with a 2- to 5-month lag. The summer bottom-water temperature declined gradually with depth from 30 oC at stations closest to the shore, to 20 oC at the offshore edge of the study area, and increased an average 0.051 oC y-1 between1963 and 2015. The bottom-water warming in summer for all stations was 1.9 times faster compared to the rise in local summer air temperatures, and 6.4 times faster than the concurrent increase in annual global ocean sea surface temperatures. The annual rise in average summer bottom-water temperatures on the subtropical nGOM continental shelf is comparable to the few published temperature trend estimates from colder environments. These recent changes in the heat storage on the nGOM continental shelf will affect oxygen and carbon cycling, spatial distribution of fish and shrimp, and overall species diversity.

Heat storage in forest biomass improves energy balance closure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindroth, A.; Mölder, M.; Lagergren, F.

2010-01-01

Temperature measurements in trunks and branches in a mature ca. 100 years-old mixed pine and spruce forest in central Sweden were used to estimate the heat storage in the tree biomass. The estimated heat flux in the sample trees and data on biomass distributions were used to scale up to stand level biomass heat fluxes. The rate of change of sensible and latent heat storage in the air layer below the level of the flux measurements was estimated from air temperature and humidity profile measurements and soil heat flux was estimated from heat flux plates and soil temperature measurements. The fluxes of sensible and latent heat from the forest were measured with an eddy covariance system in a tower. The analysis was made for a two-month period in summer of 1995. The tree biomass heat flux was the largest of the estimated storage components and varied between 40 and -35 W m-2 on summer days with nice weather. Averaged over two months the diurnal maximum of total heat storage was 45 W m-2 and the minimum was -35 W m-2. The soil heat flux and the sensible heat storage in air were out of phase with the biomass flux and they reached maximum values that were about 75% of the maximum of the tree biomass heat storage. The energy balance closure improved significantly when the total heat storage was added to the turbulent fluxes. The slope of a regression line with sum of fluxes and storage as independent and net radiation as dependent variable, increased from 0.86 to 0.95 for half-hourly data and the scatter was also reduced. The most significant finding was, however, that during nights with strongly stable conditions when the sensible heat flux dropped to nearly zero, the total storage matched the net radiation very well. Another interesting result was that the mean energy imbalance started to increase when the Richardson number became more negative than ca. -0.1. In fact, the largest energy deficit occurred at maximum instability. Our conclusion is that eddy covariance measurements can function well during stable conditions but that the functioning under strong instabilities might be a so far unforeseen problem.

Heat storage in forest biomass significantly improves energy balance closure particularly during stable conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindroth, A.; Mölder, M.; Lagergren, F.

2009-08-01

Temperature measurements in trunks and branches in a mature ca. 100 years-old mixed pine and spruce forest in central Sweden were used to estimate the heat storage in the tree biomass. The estimated heat flux in the sample trees and data on biomass distributions were used to scale up to stand level biomass heat fluxes. The rate of change of sensible and latent heat storage in the air layer below the level of the flux measurements was estimated from air temperature and humidity profile measurements and soil heat flux was estimated from heat flux plates and soil temperature measurements. The fluxes of sensible and latent heat from the forest were measured with an eddy covariance system in a tower. The analysis was made for a two-month period in summer of 1995. The tree biomass heat flux was the largest of the estimated storage components and varied between 40 and -35 W m-2 on summer days with nice weather. Averaged over two months the diurnal maximum of total heat storage was 45 W m-2 and the minimum was -35 W m-2. The soil heat flux and the sensible heat storage in air were out of phase with the biomass flux and they reached maximum values that were about 75% of the maximum of the tree biomass heat storage. The energy balance closure improved significantly when the total heat storage was added to the turbulent fluxes. The slope of a regression line with sum of fluxes and storage as independent and net radiation as dependent variable, increased from 0.86 to 0.95 for half-hourly data and the scatter was also reduced. The most significant finding was, however, that during nights with strongly stable conditions when the sensible heat flux dropped to nearly zero, the total storage matched the net radiation nearly perfectly. Another interesting result was that the mean energy imbalance started to increase when the Richardson number became more negative than ca. -0.1. In fact, the largest energy deficit occurred at maximum instability. Our conclusion is that eddy covariance measurements can function well during stable conditions but that the functioning under strong instabilities might be a so far unforeseen problem.

Active Layer moisture and temperature monitoring at Half Moon Island, Maritime Antarctica.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Roberto; Francelino, Márcio; Schaefer, Carlos; Schmitz, Daniela; Dittmar, Camila; Silva, Tássio; Loureiro, Diego

2017-04-01

Half Moon Island is a minor Antarctic island, lying in the Half Moon Bay, Livingston Island in the South Shetland Islands of the Antarctic Peninsula region. Having the Mc Farlane Strait at its western shore the island was formed by the junction of three smaller islands during the Holocene, altitude at its northern portion can reach 101 m a.s.l. Its surface area is 171 hectares (420 acres). The Argentine Cámara Base is located on the island, the naval base is operational occasionally during the summer, when it's water suply comes from a near by lake. Permafrost spreads over wider areas on higher Holocene beaches being sporadic on the lowest Present-day platforms (López-Martínez et al., 2012), processes related to the presence of permafrost were observed. The mean annual air temperature is near -2°C, and average summer temperatures are higher than 0°C. These conditions allow snow cover melting and freeze-thaw cycles during summer although the annual number of air freeze-thaw cycles reported for the near by Byers Peninsula is low, 14 in summer (Blümel and Eitel, 1989; Qingsong, 1989). The objective of this study was to evaluate soil temperature and moisture content based on in situ measurements from a Cryosol developed on a Holocene beach at Half Moon Island, Maritime Antarctica. The monitoring systems consist of soil temperature probes (Campbell L107E thermocouple, accuracy of ± 0.2°C) and soil moisture probes (CS656 water content reflectometer, accuracy of ± 2.5%), placed in the active layer (Turbic Eutric Cryosol 44 m a.s.l., 5 cm, 10 cm, 30 cm, 50 cm and 100 cm, S 62°35´23.8", W 059°55´18.3"). All probes were connected to a Campbell Scientific CR 1000 data logger, recording data at every 1 hour interval. We calculated the thawing days (TD), freezing days (FD) and freezing degree days (FDD); all according to Guglielmin et al. (2008). This system recorded data of soil temperature and moisture from March 2015 to December 2016. Despite the absence of glaciers in the Island the thermal regime of the active layer showed a dominance of freezing conditions (average -1.74 °C at 5 cm and -1.46 °C at 100 cm), thaw days are concentrated February and March (44 from January until November 2016 at 5 cm being missing at 50 cm and 100 cm). At 100 cm the majority of the 642 days are classified as freeze days (192 days). Soil moisture content was very similar for 2015 and 2016, averaging 0.11, m3 m-3 (0.41 max, 0.04 min) and 0.13 m3 m-3 (0.39 max, 0.07 min) at 10 cm and 100, for the whole study period. Considering the cold season 2015 was colder, FDD summed -806 degree days at 5 cm and -674 at 100 cm (-392 and -315 degree days in 2016). Nevertheless active layer thickness reached its maximum of 140 cm in late march 2015 (118 in 2016). During the 2015 summer season the lake that supply's water to Argentine Cámara Base drained, apparently the deepening of the active layer disrupted the drainage impediment provided by the permafrost table. The active layer thermal regime over 642 day period at Half Moon Island shows a preponderance of freezing conditions; although summer data is not available for 2015, the active layer thickness reached its maximum during late march retracting in 2016.

The Precession Index and a Nonlinear Energy Balance Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubincam, David

2004-01-01

A simple nonlinear energy balance climate model yields a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin (Omega)S, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and (Omega)S is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these long periods. A nonlinear energy balance climate model with radiative terms of form T n, where T is surface temperature and n less than 1, does produce e sin (omega)S terms in temperature; the e sin (omega)S terms are called Seversmith psychroterms. Without feedback mechanisms, the model achieves extreme values of 0.64 K at the maximum orbital eccentricity of 0.06, cooling one hemisphere while simultaneously warming the other; the hemisphere over which perihelion occurs is the cooler. In other words, the nonlinear energy balance model produces long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perihelion is near northern summer solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the aphelion is near northern summer solstice. (This behavior is similar to the inertialess gray body which radiates like T 4, but the amplitude is much lower for the energy balance model because of its thermal inertia.) This seemingly paradoxical behavior works against the standard Milankovitch model, which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it must be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is far from the Earth during northern summer. The cold water eventually flows north, cooling the northern hemisphere. This might explain why the northern oceans lag the southern ones when it comes to orbital forcing.

Hydrographic variability in Bahia De La Paz, B. C. S, Mexico, during the 1997 1998 El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeso-Nieblas, M.; Shirasago, B.; Sánchez-Velasco, L.; Gaviño-Rodriguez, J. H.

2004-03-01

Bahía de La Paz is an integral part of the coast of the Gulf of California and is the biggest bay of the eastern side of the Baja California Peninsula. Dynamic forcing and water interchange occur between the bay and the gulf through two different openings, the main and deep North Mouth with 350-m depth and the shallow San Lorenzo Channel with an average depth of 10 m. To determine the oceanographic conditions before and during El Niño 1997-1998 in Bahia de La Paz, CTD data were collected in four surveys aboard the research yacht CICIMAR XV during July 1996, March 1997, July 1997, and March 1998. The results revealed important variations in the hydrographic structure of the bay, both in space and time. The two summers had a complete absence of the mixed layer with a sharper thermocline during summer 1996 (0.25°C/m) than in summer 1997 (0.21°C/m). Additionally, the entire water column experienced an average temperature increase from 1.5°C at the surface with a maximum of 4.2°C to 28 m and around 1°C between 100 and 350 m, showing a halocline structure in summer 1997. At the end of the winters of 1997 and 1998, a 50-m mixed layer was detected, with higher average temperatures of 2.3°C in winter 1998. The temperature differences decreased with depth and were the same at 340 m with no traces of the halocline in winter 1998. The increase of temperature observed in the study area during the periods affected by El Niño 1997-1998 resulted in a sinking of the thermocline and isotherms, showing the strongest effect of this warming (>4°C) in the surface layer to 70 m during summer 1997. The stratification increased during the El Niño and was more evident in the period of small stratification in the region (winter) as showed by the φ parameter with values of 45 J/m3 in 1998 and 29 J/m3 in 1997, whereas during the strong stratification period (summer) the difference was small, with values of 137 J/m3 in 1996 and 139 J/m3 in 1997. In periods not affected by El Niño, the Gulf of California and the Subtropical Subsurface Waters are usually present in the bay, but during this episode their presence varies in space. Additionally, Surface Equatorial Water was found in the bay, mainly at the end of winter 1998 and with some traces in summer 1997.

Evolution of ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) parameters in the cusp region related to ion upflow events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kervalishvili, Guram; Lühr, Hermann

2017-04-01

In this study we investigate the relationships of various IT parameters with the intensity of vertical ion flow. Our study area is the ionospheric cusp region in the northern hemisphere. The approach uses superposed epoch analysis (SEA) method, centered alternately on peaks of the three different variables: neutral density enhancement, vertical plasma flow, and electron temperature. Further parameters included are large-scale field-aligned currents (LSFACs) and thermospheric zonal wind velocity profiles over magnetic latitude (MLat), which are centered at the event time and location. The dependence on the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) By component orientation and the local (Lloyd) season is of particular interest. Our investigations are based on CHAMP and DMSP (F13 and F15) satellite observations and the OMNI online database collected during the years 2002-2007. The three Lloyd seasons of 130 days each are defined as follows: local winter (1 January ± 65 days), combined equinoxes (1 April and 1 October ± 32 days), and local summer (1 July ± 65 days). A period of 130 days corresponds to the time needed by CHAMP to sample all local times. The SEA MLat profiles with respect to neutral density enhancement and vertical plasma flow peaks show no significant but only slight (decreasing towards local summer) seasonal variations for both IMF By orientations. The latitude profiles of median LSFACs show a clear dependence on the IMF By orientation. As expected, the maximum and minimum values of LSFAC amplitudes are increasing towards local summer for both IMF By signs. With respect to zero epoch latitude, FAC peaks appear equatorward (negative MLat) related to Region 1 (R1) and poleward (positive MLat) to Region 0 (R0) FACs. However, there is an imbalance between the amplitudes of LSFACs, depending on the current latitude. R1 currents are systematically stronger than R0 FACs. A somewhat different distribution of density enhancements and large-scale FACs emerges when the SEA is centered on electron temperature peaks. As expected, the background electron temperature increases towards summer and shows no dependence on the IMF By orientation. In contrast to the previous sorting the mass density enhancement shows a dependence on the IMF By sign and increases towards local summer in case of IMF By<0. As before LSFAC peak values are increasing towards local summer, but there is no clear latitudinal profile of upward and downward FACs. We think that intense precipitation of soft electrons (<100 eV) cause the electron temperature enhancement in the cusp region. But there is no direct dependence on the FAC intensity. But for neutral density enhancement and vertical plasma flow the combination of Joule heating and soft electron precipitation, causing electron temperature and conductivity enhancements, are required.

ENSO shifts and their link to Southern Africa surface air temperature in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manatsa, D.; Mukwada, G.; Makaba, L.

2018-05-01

ENSO has been known to influence the trends of summer warming over Southern Africa. In this work, we used observational and reanalysis data to analyze the relationship between ENSO and maximum surface air temperature (SATmax) trends during the three epochs created by the ENSO phase shifts around 1977 and 1997 for the period 1960 to 2014. We observed that while ENSO and cloud cover remains the dominant factor controlling SATmax variability, the first two epochs had the predominant La Niña (El Niño)-like events connected to robust positive (negative) trends in cloud fraction. However, this established relationship reversed in the post-1997 La Niña-like dominated epoch which coincided with a falling cloud cover trend. It is established that this deviation from the previously established link within the previous epochs could be due to the post-1998 era in which SATmin was suppressed while SATmax was enhanced. The resulting increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) could have discouraged the formation of low-level clouds which have relatively more extensive areal coverage and hence allowing more solar energy to reach the surface to boost daytime SATmax. It is noted that these relationships are more pronounced from December to March.

Trends and variability of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Yinghui

2017-04-01

The variability of surface air temperature and precipitation extremes has been the focus of attention during the past several decades, and may exert a great influence on the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance through thermal forcing. Using daily minimum (TN), maximum temperature (TX) and precipitation　from 143 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), a suite of extreme climate indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, which has rarely been applied in this region, were computed and analyzed during 1960-2012. The results show widespread significant changes in all temperature indices associated with warming in the YRB during 1960-2012. On the whole, cold-related indices, i.e., cold nights, cold days, frost days, icing days and cold spell duration index significantly decreased by -3.45, -1.03, -3.04, -0.42 and -1.6 days/decade, respectively. In contrast, warm-related indices such as warm nights, warm days, summer days, tropical nights and warm spell duration index significantly increased by 2.95, 1.71, 2.16, 1.05 and 0.73 days/decade. Minimum TN, maximum TN, minimum TX and maximum TX increased significantly by 0.42, 0.18, 0.19 and 0.14 °C/decade. Because of a faster increase in minimum temperature than maximum temperature, the diurnal temperature range (DTR) exhibited a significant decreasing trend of -0.09 °C/decade for the whole YRB during 1960-2012. Geographically, stations in the eastern Tibet Plateau and northeastern YRB showed stronger trends in almost all temperature indices. Time series analysis indicated that the YRB was dominated by a general cooling trend before the mid-1980s, but a warming trend afterwards. For precipitation, simple daily intensity index, very wet day precipitation, extremely wet day precipitation, extremely heavy precipitation days, maximum 1-day precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation and maximum consecutive dry days all increased significantly during 1960-2012. In contrast, ≥ 10 mm precipitation days and maximum consecutive wet days decreased significantly, implying that the precipitation processes in YRB were dominated by precipitation events with shorter durations. Geographically, a wetting tendency was observed in the eastern Tibet Plateau and the middle and lower YRB, while the other regions experienced precipitation deficits. The increasing precipitation was mainly due to the intensification of extreme precipitation events and the decreasing precipitation may be attributed to the decrease of ≥ 10 mm precipitation days or moderate precipitation events. In addition, the regional trends were of greater magnitudes in the middle and lower YRB, indicating more frequent extreme precipitation events in these sub-regions.

Buoy observation for typhoon in southeast of Taiwan during summers of 2015 and 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, C. Y.; Yang, Y. J.; Chang, M. H.; Chang, H. I.; Jan, S.; Wei, C. L.

2016-12-01

The western North Pacific is the most active area for the typhoon in the world, and typhoon caused disasters in this area. The marine observations are very important for the typhoon prediction. National Taiwan University (NTU) was developed a real-time data buoy system for typhoon observation. This buoy not only collected meteorological data, but also measured the temperature and salinity profiles of ocean's upper 500 m. The buoys, NTU1 and NTU2, were moored about 375 km and 175 km, respectively, from the southernmost tip of Taiwan. In summer of 2015, NTU1 buoy equipped with temperature and humidity probes, wind sensor, pyranometer, barometer, conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) recorders, and temperature-pressure recorders. In summer of 2016, NTU1 and NTU2 buoys installed more instruments, such as rain gauge, net radiometer, and current meter, etc. During the observation period, there were three typhoons (Chan-hom, Soudler, and Goni) in 2015 and one typhoon (Nepartak) in 2016 approached buoy. Goni passed south and west side of NTU1 and the air pressure dropped around 25 hPa. Nepartak passed north side of NTU1 and south side of NTU2. The minimum distance between center of typhoon and NTU1 and NTU2 were about 11.48 km and 4.85 km, respectively. The NTU2 buoy recorded a maximum wind gust of 44 m/s, thickness of mixed layer increased to 120 m, and sea-surface temperature dropped 3 °C. In addition, the typhoon induced the near inertial internal motion for a couple of days. Applied the in-situ data to derive the net heat flux and its variations were from 600 W/m2 to -1000W/m2 during typhoon period. It indicate that the ocean provide energy to typhoon around this area. Moreover, the sum of sensible and latent heat flux calculated from observation data was 4.5 times than satellite-based products.

Variation in the Norwegian gyre and its links to the termohaline circulation (THC).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunnarson, B. E.; Linderholm, H. W.; Wilson, R.; Rydval, M.

2017-12-01

Summer temperature patterns in Scandinavia are partly governed by variations in the North Atlantic drift (being part of the Gulf Stream) causing northern Europe to be warmer than similar latitudes. Observation show that northwestern European climate is strongly link to sea surface temperature (SST) and the ocean circulation (the Norwegian gyre, NG) in the Norwegian Sea. On decadal- multidecadal time scales, there is also positive association with the sub-tropical gyre, but also a weaker (and negative) connection to the sub Polar gyre (SPG) which is linked to the thermohaline circulation (THC). The negative correlations occur only during the April-June and July-September (JAS) seasons, when the ocean mixed layer is shallow in the North Atlantic. A network of Maximum Latewood Density (MXD) tree-ring chronologies from 7 sites in Northern Scandinavia, 1 in central Scotland and 1 in Labrador was used to identifying SST influences on local to regional summer temperatures patterns during 1901-20XX. The sites represent tree growth strongly correlated with mean JAS temperatures (Fennoscandia r > 0.7, Scotland r > 0.6, Labrador r > 0.5). Both the Scotland and Labrador chronologies correlates only with SST from adjacent coastal areas. The Fennoscandian chronologies showed strong and temporally consistent correlations with SST across the NG (r > 0.5), but also positive correlations of the same magnitude across the sub-tropical gyre. In addition, a negative, but weaker, correlation was found over the SPG domain. Climate models (PMIP5) were not able to reproduce the correlation patterns evident in both observations and tree-ring data. The tripolar correlation pattern suggests that North Atlantic SST influences summer temperature variability in Northern Fennoscandia, illustrating the potential for using tree-rings to reconstruct the THC and the heat transport towards the North Atlantic region and atmosphere- ocean interaction back in time.

Attributing Contributions of Climate Feedbacks to the Seasonal Cycle of Surface Warming due to CO2 Increase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sejas, S.; Cai, M.

2012-12-01

Surfing warming due to CO2 doubling is a robust feature of coupled general circulation models (GCM), as noted in the IPCC AR4 assessment report. In this study, the contributions of different climate feedbacks to the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of the surface warming is examined using data from NCAR's CCSM4. In particular, a focus is placed on polar regions to see which feedbacks play a role in polar amplification and its seasonal pattern. A new climate feedback analysis method is used to isolate the surface warming or cooling contributions of both radiative and non-radiative (dynamical) climate feedbacks to the total (actual) surface temperature change given by the CCSM4. These contributions (or partial surface temperature changes) are additive and their total is approximately equal to the actual surface temperature change. What is found is that the effects of CO2 doubling alone warms the surface throughout with a maximum in polar regions, which indicates the CO2 forcing alone has a degree of polar warming amplification. Water vapor feedback is a positive feedback throughout but is most responsible for the surface warming found in the tropics. Polar warming amplification is found to be strongest away from summer (especially in NH), which is primarily caused by a positive feedback due to cloud feedbacks but with the surface temperature change due to the CO2 forcing alone and the ocean dynamics and storage feedback also playing an important role. Contrary to popular belief, surface albedo feedback (SAF) does not account for much of the polar amplification. SAF tries to amplify polar warming, but in summer. No major polar amplification is seen in summer for the actual surface temperature, so SAF is not the feedback responsible for polar amplification. This is actually a consequence of the ocean dynamics and storage feedback, which negates the effects of SAF to a large degree.

Linking habitat quality with trophic performance of steelhead along forest gradients in the South Fork Trinity River Watershed, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, Sarah G.; Duda, Jeffrey J.; Emlen, John M.; Hodgson, Garth R.; Beauchamp, David A.

2009-01-01

We examined invertebrate prey, fish diet, and energy assimilation in relation to habitat variation for steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss (anadromous rainbow trout) and rainbow trout in nine low-order tributaries of the South Fork Trinity River, northern California. These streams spanned a range of environmental conditions, which allowed us to use bioenergetics modeling to determine the relative effects of forest cover, stream temperature, season, and fish age on food consumption and growth efficiency. Evidence of seasonal shifts in reliance on aquatic versus terrestrial food sources was detected among forest cover categories and fish ages, although these categories were not robust indicators of O. mykiss condition and growth efficiency. Consumption estimates were generally less than 20% of maximum consumption, and fish lost weight in some streams during summer low-flow conditions when stream temperatures exceeded 15°C. Current 100-year climate change projections for California threaten to exacerbate negative growth patterns and may undermine the productivity of this steelhead population, which is currently not listed as endangered or threatened. To demonstrate the potential effect of global warming on fish growth, we ran three climate change scenarios in two representative streams. Simulated temperature increases ranging from 1.4°C to 5.5°C during the summer and from 1.5°C to 2.9C during the winter amplified the weight loss; estimated average growth for age-1 fish was 0.4–4.5 times lower than normal (low to high estimated temperature increase) in the warm stream and 0.05–0.8 times lower in the cool stream. We conclude that feeding rate and temperature during the summer currently limit the growth and productivity of steelhead and rainbow trout in low-order streams in the South Fork Trinity River basin and predict that climate change will have detrimental effects on steelhead growth as well as on macroinvertebrate communities and stream ecosystems in general.

Projections of Future Summer Weather in Seoul and Their Impacts on Urban Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. O.; Kim, J. H.; Yun, J. I.

2015-12-01

Climate departure from the past variability was projected to start in 2042 for Seoul. In order to understand the implication of climate departure in Seoul for urban agriculture, we evaluated the daily temperature for the June-September period from 2041 to 2070, which were projected by the RCP8.5 climate scenario. These data were analyzed with respect to climate extremes and their effects on growth of hot pepper (Capsicum annuum), one of the major crops in urban farming. The mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 2041-2070 approached to the 90th percentile in the past 30 years (1951- 1980). However, the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves and tropical nights appeared to exceed the past variability. While the departure of mean temperature might begin in or after 2040, the climate departure in the sense of extreme weather events seems already in progress. When the climate scenario data were applied to the growth and development of hot pepper, the departures of both planting date and harvest date are expected to follow those of temperature. However, the maximum duration for hot pepper cultivation, which is the number of days between the first planting and the last harvest, seems to have already deviated from the past variability.

Annual and latitudinal variations of surface fluxes and meteorological variables at Arctic terrestrial sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grachev, Andrey; Uttal, Taneil; Persson, Ola; Konopleva-Akish, Elena; Crepinsek, Sara; Cox, Christopher; Fairall, Christopher; Makshtas, Alexander; Repina, Irina

2016-04-01

This study analyzes and discusses seasonal and latitudinal variations of surface fluxes (turbulent, radiative, and soil ground heat) and other ancillary surface/snow/permafrost data based on in-situ measurements made at two long-term research observatories near the coast of the Arctic Ocean located in Canada and Russia. The hourly averaged data collected at Eureka (Canadian territory of Nunavut) and Tiksi (East Siberia) located at two quite different latitudes (80.0 N and 71.6 N respectively) are analyzed in details to describe the seasons in the Arctic. Although Eureka and Tiksi are located at the different continents and at the different latitudes, the annual course of the surface meteorology and the surface fluxes are qualitatively very similar. The air and soil temperatures display the familiar strong seasonal trend with maximum of measured temperatures in mid-summer and minimum during winter. According to our data, variation in incoming short-wave solar radiation led the seasonal pattern of the air and soil temperatures, and the turbulent fluxes. During the dark Polar nights, air and ground temperatures are strongly controlled by long-wave radiation associated generally with cloud cover. Due to the fact that in average the higher latitudes receive less solar radiation than lower latitudes, a length of the convective atmospheric boundary layer (warm season) is shorter and middle-summer amplitude of the turbulent fluxes is generally less in Eureka than in Tiksi. However, since solar elevation angle at local midnight in the middle of Arctic summer is higher for Eureka as compared to Tiksi, stable stratification and upward turbulent flux for carbon dioxide is generally did not observed at Eureka site during summer seasons. It was found a high correlation between the turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat, carbon dioxide and the net solar radiation. A comprehensive evaluation of energy balance closure problem is performed based on the multi-year data sets collected at the Arctic terrestrial sites. The work is supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office, the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) with award ARC 11-07428, and by the U.S. Civilian Research & Development Foundation (CRDF) with award RUG1-2976-ST-10.

Frontogenesis and turbulent mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S.; Chen, F.; Shang, Q.

2017-12-01

A hydrological investigation was conducted in the shelf of eastern Hainan island during July 2012. With the in-situ measurements from four cross-shelf sections and satellite data, the submesoscale process of the fronts are discussed in this paper, the seasonal variation characteristics of thermal front, the three-dimensional structure, dynamic characteristics of frontal and mixed characteristics in the shelf sea of eastern Hainan island. It's obviously that the thermal front has a seasonal variation: the front is strongest in winter, and decreased gradually in spring and summer. However, it fade and disappear in fall. The core region of the front also changes with the seasons, it moved southward gradually from mainly distributed in the upwelling zone and the front center is not obvious in summer. it is a typical upwelling front in summer, the near shore is compensated with the underlying low-temperature and high-sale water , while the offshore is the high-temperature and low-salinity shelf water. The thermal front distribution is located in the 100m isobaths. The frontal intensity is reduced with increasing depth, and position goes to offshore. Subsurface temperature front is significantly higher in the surface of the sea, which may cause by the heating of nearshore sea surface water and lead to the weakening horizontal temperature gradient. Dynamic characteristics of the front has a great difference in both sides. The O(1) Rossby number is positive on the dense side and negative on the light side. The maximum of along-frontal velocity is 0.45m/s and the stretching is strengthened by strong horizontal shear, also is the potential vorticity, which can trace the cross front Ekman transport. We obtained the vertical velocity with by quasi-geostrophic omega equation and grasped the ageostrophic secondary circulation. The magnitude of frontal vertical velocity is O(10-5) and causes downwelling on the dense side and upwelling on the light side, which constitute the ageostrophic secondary circulation together with the cross-frontal ageostrophic speed. The mixed characteristic is weak in summer, but the large turbulent dissipation and mixing rate measured in the frontal region, which show that the front promoted exchange of material and energy in the upper ocean.

Evaluation of the ASOS impact on climatic normals and assessment of variable-length time periods in calculation of normals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauffman, Chad Matthew

The temperature and precipitation that describe the norm of daily, monthly, and seasonal climate conditions are ``climate normals.'' They are usually calculated based on climate data covering a 30-year period, and updated in every 10 years. The next update will take place in year 2001. Because of the advent of the Automated Surface Observations Systems (ASOS) beginning in early 1990s and recognized temperature bias between ASOS and the conventional temperature sensors there is an uncertainty of how the ASOS data should be used to calculate the 1971-2000 temperature normal. This study examined the uncertainty and offered a method to minimize it. It showed that the ASOS bias has a measurable impact on the new 30-year temperature normal. The impact varies among stations and climate regions. Some stations with a cooling trend in ASOS temperature have a cooler normal for their temperature, while others with a warming trend have a warmer normal for temperature. These quantitative evaluations of ASOS effect for stations and regions can be used to reduce ASOS bias in temperature normals. This study also evaluated temperature normals for different length periods and compared them to the 30-year normal. It showed that the difference between the normals, is smaller in maritime climate than in continental temperate climate. In the former, the six- year normal describes a similar temperature variation as the 30-year normal does. In the latter, the 18-year normal starts to resemble the temperature variation that the 30-year normal describes. These results provide a theoretical basis for applying different normals in different regions. The study further compared temperature normal for different periods and identified a seasonal shift in climate change in the southwestern U.S. where the summer maximum temperature has shifted to a late summer month and the winter minimum temperature shifted to an early winter month in the past 30 years.

Unexpected early extinction of the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) in Sweden and climatic impact on its Holocene range.

PubMed

Sommer, Robert S; Lindqvist, Charlotte; Persson, Arne; Bringsøe, Henrik; Rhodin, Anders G J; Schneeweiss, Norbert; Siroký, Pavel; Bachmann, Lutz; Fritz, Uwe

2009-03-01

Using ancient DNA sequences of subfossil European pond turtles (Emys orbicularis) from Britain, Central and North Europe and accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dating for turtle remains from most Swedish sites, we provide evidence for a Holocene range expansion of the pond turtle from the southeastern Balkans into Britain, Central Europe and Scandinavia, according to the 'grasshopper pattern' of Hewitt. Northeastern Europe and adjacent Asia were colonized from another refuge located further east. With increasing annual mean temperatures, pond turtles reached southern Sweden approximately 9800 years ago. Until approximately 5500 years ago, rising temperatures facilitated a further range expansion up to Ostergötland, Sweden (approximately 58 degrees 30'N). However, around 5500 years ago pond turtle records suddenly terminate in Sweden, some 1500 years before the Holocene thermal maximum ended in Scandinavia and distinctly earlier than previously thought. This extinction coincides with a temporary cooling oscillation during the Holocene thermal maximum and is likely related to lower summer temperatures deteriorating reproductive success. Although climatic conditions improved later again, recolonization of Sweden from southern source populations was prevented by the Holocene submergence of the previous land connection via the Danish Straits that occurred approximately 8500 years ago.

Temporal variation of mass-wasting activity in Mount St. Helens crater, Washington, U. S. A. indicated by seismic activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mills, H.H.

1991-11-01

In the crater of Mount St. Helens, formed during the eruption of 18 May 1980, thousands of rockfalls may occur in a single day, and some rock and dirty-snow avalanches have traveled more than 1 km from their source. Because most seismic activity in the crater is produced by mass wasting, the former can be used to monitor the latter. The number and amplitude of seismic events per unit time provide a generalized measure of mass-wasting activity. In this study 1-min averages of seismic amplitudes were used as an index of rockfall activity during summer and early fall. Plots ofmore » this index show the diurnal cycle of rockfall activity and establish that the peak in activity occurs in mid to late afternoon. A correlation coefficient of 0.61 was found between daily maximum temperature and average seismic amplitude, although this value increases to 0.72 if a composite temperature variable that includes the maximum temperature of 1 to 3 preceding days as well as the present day is used. Correlation with precipitation is much weaker.« less

Observational Characteristics of the Tropopause Inversion Layer derived from CHAMP/GRACE Radio Occultations and MOZAIC Aircraft Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, T.; Cammas, J.; Heise, S.; Wickert, J.; Haser, A.

2010-12-01

In this study we discuss characteristics of the northern hemisphere (NH) midlatitude (40°N-60°N) tropopause inversion layer (TIL) based on two datasets. First, temperature measurements from GPS radio occultation data (CHAMP and GRACE) for the time interval 2001-2009 are used to exhibit seasonal properties of the TIL bottom height defined here as the height of the squared buoyancy frequency minimum N2 below the thermal tropopause, the TIL maximum height as the height of the N2 maximum above the tropopause and the TIL top height as the height of the temperature maximum above the tropopause. Mean values of the TIL bottom, TIL maximum and TIL top heights relative to the thermal tropopause for the NH midlatitudes are (-2.08±0.35) km, (0.52±0.10) km and (2.10±0.23) km, respectively. A seasonal cycle of the TIL bottom and TIL top height is observed with values closer to the thermal tropopause during summer. Secondly, high-resolution temperature and trace gas profile measurements onboard commercial aircrafts (MOZAIC program) from 2001-2008 for the NH midlatitude (40°N-60°N) region are used to characterize the TIL as a mixing layer around the tropopause. Mean TIL bottom, TIL maximum and TIL top heights based on the MOZAIC temperature (N2) measurements confirm the results from the GPS data, even though most of the MOZAIC profiles used here are available under cyclonic situations. Further, we demonstrate that the mixing ratio gradients of ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) are suitable parameters for characterizing the TIL structure. Using O3-CO correlations we also show that on average the highest mixing occurs in a layer less than 1 km above the thermal tropopause, i.e., within the TIL.

Assessment of indoor heat stress variability in summer and during heat warnings: a case study using the UTCI in Berlin, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walikewitz, Nadine; Jänicke, Britta; Langner, Marcel; Endlicher, Wilfried

2018-01-01

Humans spend most of their time in confined spaces and are hence primarily exposed to the direct influence of indoor climate. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was obtained in 31 rooms (eight buildings) in Berlin, Germany, during summer 2013 and 2014. The indoor UTCI was determined from measurements of both air temperature and relative humidity and from data of mean radiant temperature and air velocity, which were either measured or modeled. The associated outdoor UTCI was obtained through facade measurements of air temperature and relative humidity, simulation of mean radiant temperature, and wind data from a central weather station. The results show that all rooms experienced heat stress according to UTCI levels, especially during heat waves. Indoor UTCI varied up to 6.6 K within the city and up to 7 K within building. Heat stress either during day or at night occurred on 35 % of all days. By comparing the day and night thermal loads, we identified maximum values above the 32 °C threshold for strong heat stress during the nighttime. Outdoor UTCI based on facade measurements provided no better explanation of indoor UTCI variability than the central weather station. In contrast, we found a stronger relationship of outdoor air temperature and indoor air temperature. Building characteristics, such as the floor level or window area, influenced indoor heat stress ambiguously. We conclude that indoor heat stress is a major hazard, and more effort toward understanding the causes and creating effective countermeasures is needed.

Prediction model for peninsular Indian summer monsoon rainfall using data mining and statistical approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vathsala, H.; Koolagudi, Shashidhar G.

2017-01-01

In this paper we discuss a data mining application for predicting peninsular Indian summer monsoon rainfall, and propose an algorithm that combine data mining and statistical techniques. We select likely predictors based on association rules that have the highest confidence levels. We then cluster the selected predictors to reduce their dimensions and use cluster membership values for classification. We derive the predictors from local conditions in southern India, including mean sea level pressure, wind speed, and maximum and minimum temperatures. The global condition variables include southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole conditions. The algorithm predicts rainfall in five categories: Flood, Excess, Normal, Deficit and Drought. We use closed itemset mining, cluster membership calculations and a multilayer perceptron function in the algorithm to predict monsoon rainfall in peninsular India. Using Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology data, we found the prediction accuracy of our proposed approach to be exceptionally good.

Thermal and albedo mapping of the north and south polar regions of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paige, D. A.; Keegan, K. D.

1991-01-01

The first maps of the thermal properties of the north and south polar region of Mars are presented. The maps complete the mapping of the entire planet. The maps for the north polar region were derived from Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) observations obtained from 10 Jun. to 30 Sep. 1978. This period corresponds to the early summer season in the north, when the north residual water ice cap was exposed, and the polar surface temperatures were near their maximum. The maps in the south were derived from observations obtained between 24 Aug. to 23 Sep. 1977. This period corresponds to the late summer season in the south, when the seasonal polar cap had retreated to close to its residual configuration, and the second global dust storm of 1977 had largely subsided. The major results concerning the following topics are summarized: (1) surface water ice; (2) polar dune material; and (3) dust deposits.

Use of BasinTemp to model summer stream temperatures in the south fork of Ten Mile River, CA

Treesearch

Rafael Real de Asua; Ethan Bell; Bruce Orr; Peter Baker; Kevin Faucher

2012-01-01

We used BasinTemp to predict summer stream temperatures in South Fork Ten Mile River (SFTMR), Mendocino County. BasinTemp is a temperature model that attempts to quantify the basin-wide effects of high summer stream temperatures in basins where the data inputs are scarce. It assumes that direct solar radiation is the chief...

Trends in 1970-2010 southern California surface maximum temperatures: extremes and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghebreegziabher, Amanuel T.

Daily maximum temperatures from 1970-2010 were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) Cooperative Network (COOP) sites. Analyses were carried out on the entire data set, as well as on the 1970-1974 and 2006-2010 sub-periods, including construction of spatial distributions and time-series trends of both summer-average and annual-maximum values and of the frequency of two and four consecutive "daytime" heat wave events. Spatial patterns of average and extreme values showed three areas consistent with climatological SoCAB flow patterns: cold coastal, warm inland low-elevation, and cool further-inland mountain top. Difference (2006-2010 minus 1970-1974) distributions of both average and extreme-value trends were consistent with the shorter period (1970-2005) study of previous study, as they showed the expected inland regional warming and a "reverse-reaction" cooling in low elevation coastal and inland areas open to increasing sea breeze flows. Annual-extreme trends generally showed cooling at sites below 600 m and warming at higher elevations. As the warming trends of the extremes were larger than those of the averages, regional warming thus impacts extremes more than averages. Spatial distributions of hot-day frequencies showed expected maximum at inland low-elevation sites. Regional warming again thus induced increases at both elevated-coastal areas, but low-elevation areas showed reverse-reaction decreases.

[Effects of synoptic type on surface ozone pollution in Beijing].

PubMed

Tang, Gui-qian; Li, Xin; Wang, Xiao-ke; Xin, Jin-yuan; Hu, Bo; Wang, Li-li; Ren, Yu-fen; Wang, Yue-Si

2010-03-01

Ozone (O), influenced by meteorological factors, is a primary gaseous photochemical pollutant during summer to fall in Beijing' s urban ambient. Continuous monitoring during July to September in 2008 was carried out at four sites in Beijing. Analyzed with synoptic type, the results show that the ratios of pre-low cylonic (mainly Mongolia cyclone) and pre-high anticylonic to total weather conditions are about 42% and 20%, illustrating the high-and low-ozone episodes, respectively. At the pre-low cylonic conditions, high temperature, low humidity, mountain and valley winds caused by local circulation induce average hourly maximum ozone concentration (volume fraction) up to 102.2 x 10(-9), negative correlated with atmospheric pressure with a slope of -3.4 x 10(-9) Pa(-1). The time of mountain wind changed to valley wind dominates the diurnal time of maximum ozone, generally around 14:00. At the pre-high anticylonic conditions, low temperature, high humidity and systematic north wind induce average hourly maximum ozone concentration (volume fraction) only 49.3 x 10(-9), the diurnal time of maximum ozone is deferred by continuous north wind till about 16:00. The consistency of photochemical pollution in Beijing region shows that good correlation exists between synoptic type and ozone concentration. Therefore, getting an eye on the structure and evolution of synoptic type is of great significances for forecasting the photochemical pollution.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

Economic status and temperature-related mortality in Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Youn-Hee; Bell, Michelle L.; Kan, Haidong; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Kim, Ho

2015-10-01

In developed countries, low latitude and high temperature are positively associated with the population's ability to adapt to heat. However, few studies have examined the effect of economic status on the relationship between long-term exposure to high temperature and health. We compared heterogeneous temperature-related mortality effects relative to the average summer temperature in high-socioeconomic-status (SES) cities to temperature-related effects in low-SES cities. In the first stage of the research, we conducted a linear regression analysis to quantify the mortality effects of high temperature (at or above the 95th percentile) in 32 cities in Taiwan, China, Japan, and Korea. In the second stage, we used a meta-regression to examine the association between mortality risk with average summer temperature and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. In cities with a low GDP per capita (less than 20,000 USD), the effects of temperature were detrimental to the population if the long-term average summer temperature was high. In contrast, in cities with a high GDP per capita, temperature-related mortality risk was not significantly related to average summer temperature. The relationship between long-term average summer temperature and the short-term effects of high temperatures differed based on the city-level economic status.

Abiotic factors and trap design modulate the performance of traps used to monitor the plum curculio.

PubMed

Lamothe, Steve; Chouinard, Gérald; Vincent, Charles

2008-12-01

All published studies on effects of abiotic factors on plum curculio, Conotrachelus nenuphar (Hersbt), adults have taken a retrospective approach. Here, we present the results of experiments where factors and their levels were determined and controlled a priori. We compared the effectiveness of miniature pyramidal traps (45 by 20 by 20 cm) constructed of four kind of materials--wood, geotextile, nylon screening, and corrugated plastic--to monitor overwintered and summer adults of univoltine plum curculio. We also studied the effects of photoperiod, temperature, wind, and rain on pyramidal trap effectiveness. The experiments, which were replicated over time, were done in two controlled chambers that were divided into four sections, corresponding to simulated combinations (wind or no wind/rain or no rain). The temperatures tested (15, 20, and 25 degrees C) were randomly assigned in the chambers. During scotophase, geotextile traps captured significantly more overwintered and summer adults than traps made of other materials. The maximum proportion of captures (for overwintered and summer adults) during photophase was obtained at 25 degrees C, and it was significantly different than captures at 15 and 20 degrees C. During scotophase, significantly more overwintered and summer plum curculios were caught at 20 and 25 degrees C than at 15 degrees C. Our experiments demonstrated that geotextile is a good alternative to wooden pyramidal trap. Our results suggest that captures were higher 1) at night, 2) during warmer periods (20 and 25 degrees C), 3) when wind velocity was low and 4) during or shortly after rainfall, and 5) that photoperiod is a factor having an important predictive value for plum curculio captures.

Determination of GHG and ammonia emissions from stored dairy cattle slurry by using a floating dynamic chamber.

PubMed

Minato, Keiko; Kouda, Yasuyuki; Yamakawa, Masaaki; Hara, Satoshi; Tamura, Tadashi; Osada, Takashi

2013-02-01

We developed a system for measuring emissions from stored slurry by using a floating dynamic chamber. CH(4) , CO(2) , N(2) O and NH(3) emitted from the storage tank of a dairy cattle farm in eastern Hokkaido were measured during summer 2008 (7/16-8/6), fall 2008 (10/2-10/26), spring 2009 (6/2-6/21) and winter 2009 (3/11). Average daily gas emission rates in summer, fall and spring were, respectively, 54.8, 54.2 and 34.3 g/m(2) for CH(4) ; 602, 274 and 254 g/m(2) for CO(2) ; 55.4, 68.2 and trace mg/m(2) for N(2) O; and 0.55, 0.73 and 0.46 g/m(2) for NH(3) . CH(4) , CO(2) and NH(3) emission rates during the brief measurement period in winter were reduced to 1/4, 1/23 and 1/2, respectively, of summer emission rate levels. All gas emissions showed diurnal fluctuation and were greatest during the daytime, when the ambient temperature rose. CH(4) , NH(3) and CO(2) emissions increased significantly during the daytime, and the daily emission (in grams) of each gas was positively correlated with maximum daily temperature. According to the combined spring, summer and fall measurements, the CH(4) , N(2) O and NH(3) annual emission factors were 1.42% (g CH(4) /g volatile solids), 0.02% (g N(2) O-N/g total N) and 0.43% (g NH(3) -N/g total N), respectively. © 2012 The Authors. Animal Science Journal © 2012 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe.

PubMed

Ballester, Joan; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François Richard; Rodó, Xavier

2011-06-21

The steady increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is inducing a detectable rise in global temperatures. The sensitivity of human societies to warming temperatures is, however, a transcendental question not comprehensively addressed to date. Here we show the link between temperature, humidity and daily numbers of deaths in nearly 200 European regions, which are subsequently used to infer transient projections of mortality under state-of-the-art high-resolution greenhouse gas scenario simulations. Our analyses point to a change in the seasonality of mortality, with maximum monthly incidence progressively shifting from winter to summer. The results also show that the rise in heat-related mortality will start to completely compensate the reduction of deaths from cold during the second half of the century, amounting to an average drop in human lifespan of up 3-4 months in 2070-2100. Nevertheless, projections suggest that human lifespan might indeed increase if a substantial degree of adaptation to warm temperatures takes place.

Variation in photosynthesis and stomatal conductance among red maple (Acer rubrum) urban planted cultivars and wildtype trees in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Lahr, Eleanor C; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

2018-01-01

Photosynthesis is a fundamental process that trees perform over fluctuating environmental conditions. This study of red maple (Acer rubrum L.) characterizes photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and water use efficiency in planted cultivars relative to wildtype trees. Red maple is common in cities, yet there is little understanding of how physiological processes affect the long-term growth, condition, and ecosystem services provided by urban trees. In the first year of our study, we measured leaf-level gas exchange and performed short-term temperature curves on urban planted cultivars and on suburban and rural wildtype trees. In the second year, we compared urban planted cultivars and urban wildtype trees. In the first year, urban planted trees had higher maximum rates of photosynthesis and higher overall rates of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance throughout the summer, relative to suburban or rural wildtype trees. Urban planted trees again had higher maximum rates of photosynthesis in the second year. However, urban wildtype trees had higher water use efficiency as air temperatures increased and similar overall rates of photosynthesis, relative to cultivars, in mid and late summer. Our results show that physiological differences between cultivars and wildtype trees may relate to differences in their genetic background and their responses to local environmental conditions, contingent on the identity of the horticultural variety. Overall, our results suggest that wildtype trees should be considered for some urban locations, and our study is valuable in demonstrating how site type and tree type can inform tree planting strategies and improve long-term urban forest sustainability.

Observations of Urban Heat Island Mitigation in California Coastal Cities due to a Sea Breeze Induced Coastal-Cooling ``REVERSE-REACTION'' to Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bornstein, R. D.; Lebassi, B.; Gonzalez, J.

2010-12-01

The study evaluated long-term (1948-2005) air temperatures at over 300 urban and rural sites in California (CA) during summer (June-August, JJA). The aggregate CA results showed asymmetric warming, as daily min temperatures increased faster than daily max temperatures. The spatial distributions of daily max temperatures in the heavily urbanized South Coast and San Francisco Bay Area air basins, however, exhibited a complex pattern, with cooling at low-elevation (mainly urban) coastal-areas and warming at (mainly rural) inland areas. Previous studies have suggested that cooling summer max temperatures in CA were due to increased irrigation, coastal upwelling, or cloud cover. The current hypothesis, however, is that this temperature pattern arises from a “reverse-reaction” to greenhouse gas (GHG) induced global-warming. In this hypothesis, the global warming of inland areas resulted in an increased (cooling) sea breeze activity in coastal areas. That daytime summer coastal cooling was seen in coastal urban areas implies that urban heat island (UHI) warming was weaker than the reverse-reaction sea breeze cooling; if there was no UHI effect, then the cooling would have been even stronger. Analysis of daytime summer max temperatures at four adjacent pairs of urban and rural sites near the inland cooling-warming boundary, however, showed that the rural sites experienced cooling, while the urban sites showed warming due to UHI development. The rate of heat island growth was estimated as the sum of each urban warming rate and the absolute magnitude of the concurrent adjacent rural cooling rate. Values ranged from 0.12 to 0.55 K decade-1, and were proportional to changes in urban population and urban extent. As Sacramento, Modesto, Stockton, and San José have grown in aerial extent (21 to 59%) and population (40 to 118%), part of the observed increased JJA max values could be due to increased daytime UHI-intensity. Without UHI effects, the currently observed JJA SFBA coastal-cooling area might have expanded to include these sites, as the first three are adjacent to rural airport sites that showed cooling max-values due to increased marine influences. In addition, all urbanized sites with decreasing max-values would probably show even larger cooling rates if UHI effects could be removed. Significant societal impacts may result from this observed reverse-reaction to GHG-warming. Possible beneficial effects (especially during periods of UHI growth) include decreased maximum: O3 levels, per-capita energy requirements for cooling, and human thermal-stress levels.

The Shape of Things to Come: Estimating Northern-Hemisphere (NH) Transient Climate Response Through Hindcasting and Forecasting the Frequency Distribution of Earth's NH Land Temperature Anomalies for the Period 1951-2071

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leclerc, D. F.

2016-12-01

Northern-hemisphere (NH) heatwaves, during which temperatures rise 5 standard deviations (SD), sigma, above the historical mean temperature, mu, are becoming frequent; these events skew temperature anomaly (delta T) profiles towards extreme values. Although general extreme value (GEV) distributions have modeled precipitation data, their application to temperatures have met with limited success. This work presents a modified three-parameter (mu, sigma and tau (skew)) Exponential-Gaussian (eGd) model that hindcasts decadal NH land winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) delta Ts from 1951 to 2011, and forecasts profiles for a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for 2061-2071. We accessed 12 numerical binned (0.05 °C/bin) z-scored NH decadal datasets (posted online until August 2015) from the publicly available website http://www.columbia.edu/ mhs119/PerceptionsAndDice/ mentioned in Hansen et al, PNAS 109 E2415-E2423 (2012) and stated to be in the public domain. No pre-processing was done. Parameters were calculated for the 12 NH datasets pasted into Microsoft Excel™ through the method of moments for 1-tail distributions and through the BEST deconvolution program described by Pommé and Marroyo, Applied Radiation and Isotopes 96 148-153 (2015) for 2-tail distributions. We used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), residual sum of squares (RSS) and F-test to find optimal parameter values. Calculated 1st (= sigma + tau) and 2nd (= sigma2 + tau2) moments were found to be within 0.5% of observed values. Land delta Ts were recovered from the z-score values by multiplying the winter data by its SD (1.2 °C) and likewise the summer data by 0.6 °C. Results were all within 0.05 °C of 10-year averages from the GHCNv3 NH land dataset. Assuming BAU (increases from 2.1 to 2.6 ppm/y CO2) and using temperature rises of 0.27 °C and 0.35 °C per decade, for summer and winter, respectively, and forecasting to 2071, we obtain for the transient climate response for doubled CO2 (560 ppm CO2) mean delta Ts of 2.39 °C for summer and 2.97 °C for NH winter, thereby widely missing the agreed-to 2 °C international target which will be reached around 2040 @ 465 ppm CO2. In summary, barring volcanic eruptions and/or El Niño events, winter delta Ts will exceed 6 °C over 5% of land area, whereas in summer delta Ts will surpass 3.6 °C over 23% of same, both at the 5 sigma level.

Vegetation and Climate Change during the Last Deglaciation in the Great Khingan Mountain, Northeastern China

PubMed Central

Wu, Jing; Liu, Qiang; Wang, Luo; Chu, Guo-qiang; Liu, Jia-qi

2016-01-01

The Great Khingan Mountain range, Northeast China, is located on the northern limit of modern East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and thus highly sensitive to the extension of the EASM from glacial to interglacial modes. Here, we present a high-resolution pollen record covering the last glacial maximum and the early Holocene from a closed crater Lake Moon to reconstruct vegetation history during the glacial-interglacial transition and thus register the evolution of the EASM during the last deglaciation. The vegetation history has gone through distinct changes from subalpine meadow in the last glacial maximum to dry steppe dominated by Artemisia from 20.3 to 17.4 ka BP, subalpine meadow dominated by Cyperaceae and Artemisia between 17.4 and 14.4 ka BP, and forest steppe dominated by Betula and Artemisia after 14.4 ka BP. The pollen-based temperature index demonstrates a gradual warming trend started at around 20.3 ka BP with interruptions of several brief events. Two cold conditions occurred around at 17.2–16.6 ka BP and 12.8–11.8 ka BP, temporally correlating to the Henrich 1 and the Younger Dryas events respectively, 1and abrupt warming events occurred around at 14.4 ka BP and 11.8 ka BP, probably relevant to the beginning of the Bølling-Allerød stages and the Holocene. The pollen-based moisture proxy shows distinct drought condition during the last glacial maximum (20.3–18.0 ka BP) and the Younger Dryas. The climate history based on pollen record of Lake Moon suggests that the regional temperature variability was coherent with the classical climate in the North Atlantic, implying the dominance of the high latitude processes on the EASM evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to early Holocene. The local humidity variability was influenced by the EASM limitedly before the Bølling-Allerød warming, which is mainly controlled by the summer rainfall due to the EASM front covering the Northeast China after that. PMID:26730966

Vegetation and Climate Change during the Last Deglaciation in the Great Khingan Mountain, Northeastern China.

PubMed

Wu, Jing; Liu, Qiang; Wang, Luo; Chu, Guo-qiang; Liu, Jia-qi

2016-01-01

The Great Khingan Mountain range, Northeast China, is located on the northern limit of modern East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and thus highly sensitive to the extension of the EASM from glacial to interglacial modes. Here, we present a high-resolution pollen record covering the last glacial maximum and the early Holocene from a closed crater Lake Moon to reconstruct vegetation history during the glacial-interglacial transition and thus register the evolution of the EASM during the last deglaciation. The vegetation history has gone through distinct changes from subalpine meadow in the last glacial maximum to dry steppe dominated by Artemisia from 20.3 to 17.4 ka BP, subalpine meadow dominated by Cyperaceae and Artemisia between 17.4 and 14.4 ka BP, and forest steppe dominated by Betula and Artemisia after 14.4 ka BP. The pollen-based temperature index demonstrates a gradual warming trend started at around 20.3 ka BP with interruptions of several brief events. Two cold conditions occurred around at 17.2-16.6 ka BP and 12.8-11.8 ka BP, temporally correlating to the Henrich 1 and the Younger Dryas events respectively, 1and abrupt warming events occurred around at 14.4 ka BP and 11.8 ka BP, probably relevant to the beginning of the Bølling-Allerød stages and the Holocene. The pollen-based moisture proxy shows distinct drought condition during the last glacial maximum (20.3-18.0 ka BP) and the Younger Dryas. The climate history based on pollen record of Lake Moon suggests that the regional temperature variability was coherent with the classical climate in the North Atlantic, implying the dominance of the high latitude processes on the EASM evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to early Holocene. The local humidity variability was influenced by the EASM limitedly before the Bølling-Allerød warming, which is mainly controlled by the summer rainfall due to the EASM front covering the Northeast China after that.

Current and Potential Future Seasonal Trends of Indoor Dwelling Temperature and Likely Health Risks in Rural Southern Africa.

PubMed

Kapwata, Thandi; Gebreslasie, Michael T; Mathee, Angela; Wright, Caradee Yael

2018-05-10

Climate change has resulted in rising temperature trends which have been associated with changes in temperature extremes globally. Attendees of Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 agreed to strive to limit the rise in global average temperatures to below 2 °C compared to industrial conditions, the target being 1.5 °C. However, current research suggests that the African region will be subjected to more intense heat extremes over a shorter time period, with projections predicting increases of 4⁻6 °C for the period 2071⁻2100, in annual average maximum temperatures for southern Africa. Increased temperatures may exacerbate existing chronic ill health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes-related conditions. Exposure to extreme temperatures has also been associated with mortality. This study aimed to consider the relationship between temperatures in indoor and outdoor environments in a rural residential setting in a current climate and warmer predicted future climate. Temperature and humidity measurements were collected hourly in 406 homes in summer and spring and at two-hour intervals in 98 homes in winter. Ambient temperature, humidity and windspeed were obtained from the nearest weather station. Regression models were used to identify predictors of indoor apparent temperature (AT) and to estimate future indoor AT using projected ambient temperatures. Ambient temperatures will increase by a mean of 4.6 °C for the period 2088⁻2099. Warming in winter was projected to be greater than warming in summer and spring. The number of days during which indoor AT will be categorized as potentially harmful will increase in the future. Understanding current and future heat-related health effects is key in developing an effective surveillance system. The observations of this study can be used to inform the development and implementation of policies and practices around heat and health especially in rural areas of South Africa.

Characterization of 2014 summer drought over Henan province using remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Jing; Jia, Li; Zhou, Jie

2015-12-01

An exceptional drought struck Henan province during the summer of 2014. It caused directly the financial loss reaching to hundreds of billion Yuan (RMB), and brought the adverse influence for people's life, agricultural production as well as the ecosystem. The study in this paper characterized the Henan 2014 summer drought event through analyzing the spatial distribution of drought severity using precipitation data from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sensor and Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. The trend analysis of the annual precipitation from 2003 to 2014 showed that the region over Henan province is becoming dry. Especially in the east of Henan province, the decrease of precipitation is more obvious with the maximum change rate of ~48 mm/year. The rainfall in summer (from June to August) of 2014 was the largest negtive anomaly in contrast with the same period of historical years, which was 43% lower than the average of the past ten years. Drought severity derived from Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) indicated that all areas of Henan province experienced drought in summer of 2014 with different severity levels. The extreme drought, accounting for about 22.7 % of Henan total area, mainly occurred in Luohe, Xuchang, and Pingdingshan regions, and partly in Nanyang, Zhengzhou, and Jiaozuo. This is consistent with the statistics from local municipalities. The Normalized Drought Index Anomaly (NDAI), calculated from MODIS NDVI and LST products, can capture the evolution of the Henan 2014 summer drought effectively. Drought severity classified by NDAI also agreed well with the result from the SPI.

Occurrence of human respiratory syncytial virus in summer in Japan.

PubMed

Shobugawa, Y; Takeuchi, T; Hibino, A; Hassan, M R; Yagami, R; Kondo, H; Odagiri, T; Saito, R

2017-01-01

In temperate zones, human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) outbreaks typically occur in cold weather, i.e. in late autumn and winter. However, recent outbreaks in Japan have tended to start during summer and autumn. This study examined associations of meteorological conditions with the numbers of HRSV cases reported in summer in Japan. Using data from the HRSV national surveillance system and national meteorological data for summer during the period 2007-2014, we utilized negative binomial logistic regression analysis to identify associations between meteorological conditions and reported cases of HRSV. HRSV cases increased when summer temperatures rose and when relative humidity increased. Consideration of the interaction term temperature × relative humidity enabled us to show synergistic effects of high temperature with HRSV occurrence. In particular, HRSV cases synergistically increased when relative humidity increased while the temperature was ⩾28·2 °C. Seasonal-trend decomposition analysis using the HRSV national surveillance data divided by 11 climate divisions showed that summer HRSV cases occurred in South Japan (Okinawa Island), Kyushu, and Nankai climate divisions, which are located in southwest Japan. Higher temperature and higher relative humidity were necessary conditions for HRSV occurrence in summer in Japan. Paediatricians in temperate zones should be mindful of possible HRSV cases in summer, when suitable conditions are present.

Few apparent short-term effects of elevated soil temperature and increased frequency of summer precipitation on the abundance and taxonomic diversity of desert soil micro- and meso-fauna

USGS Publications Warehouse

Darby, B.J.; Neher, D.A.; Housman, D.C.; Belnap, J.

2011-01-01

Frequent hydration and drying of soils in arid systems can accelerate desert carbon and nitrogen mobilization due to respiration, microbial death, and release of intracellular solutes. Because desert microinvertebrates can mediate nutrient cycling, and the autotrophic components of crusts are known to be sensitive to rapid desiccation due to elevated temperatures after wetting events, we studied whether altered soil temperature and frequency of summer precipitation can also affect the composition of food web consumer functional groups. We conducted a two-year field study with experimentally-elevated temperature and frequency of summer precipitation in the Colorado Plateau desert, measuring the change in abundance of nematodes, protozoans, and microarthropods. We hypothesized that microfauna would be more adversely affected by the combination of elevated temperature and frequency of summer precipitation than either effect alone, as found previously for phototrophic crust biota. Microfauna experienced normal seasonal fluctuations in abundance, but the effect of elevated temperature and frequency of summer precipitation was statistically non-significant for most microfaunal groups, except amoebae. The seasonal increase in abundance of amoebae was reduced with combined elevated temperature and increased frequency of summer precipitation compared to either treatment alone, but comparable with control (untreated) plots. Based on our findings, we suggest that desert soil microfauna are relatively more tolerant to increases in ambient temperature and frequency of summer precipitation than the autotrophic components of biological soil crust at the surface.

Semidiurnal tidal activity of the middle atmosphere at mid-latitudes derived from O2 atmospheric and OH(6-2) airglow SATI observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-González, M. J.; Rodríguez, E.; García-Comas, M.; López-Puertas, M.; Olivares, I.; Ruiz-Bueno, J. A.; Shepherd, M. G.; Shepherd, G. G.; Sargoytchev, S.

2017-11-01

In this paper, we investigate the tidal activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region at 370N using OH Meinel and O2 atmospheric airglow observations from 1998 to 2015. The observations were taken with a Spectral Airglow Temperature Imager (SATI) installed at Sierra Nevada Observatory (SNO) (37.060N, 3.380W) at 2900 m height. From these observations a seasonal dependence of the amplitudes of the semidiurnal tide is inferred. The maximum tidal amplitude occurs in winter and the minimum in summer. The vertically averaged rotational temperatures and vertically integrated volume emission rate (rotational temperatures and intensities here in after), from the O2 atmospheric band measurements and the rotational temperature derived from OH Meinel band measurements reach the maximum amplitude about 1-4 h after midnight during almost all the year except in August-September where the maximum is found 2-4 h earlier. The amplitude of the tide in the OH intensity reaches the minimum near midnight in midwinter, then it is progressively delayed until 4:00 LT in August-September, and from there on it moves again forward towards midnight. The mean Krassovsky numbers for OH and O2 emissions are 5.9 ±1.8 and 5.6 ±1.0, respectively, with negative Krassovsky phases for almost all the year, indicating an upward energy transport. The mean vertical wavelengths for the vertical tidal propagation derived from OH and O2 emissions are 35 ±20 km and 33 ±18 km, respectively. The vertical wavelengths together with the phase shift in the temperature derived from both airglow emissions indicate that these airglow emission layers are separated by 7 ±3 km, on average.

Excess mortality during the warm summer of 2015 in Switzerland.

PubMed

Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Ragettli, Martina S; Schindler, Christian; Röösli, Martin

2016-01-01

In Switzerland, summer 2015 was the second warmest summer for 150 years (after summer 2003). For summer 2003, a 6.9% excess mortality was estimated for Switzerland, which corresponded to 975 extra deaths. The impact of the heat in summer 2015 in Switzerland has not so far been evaluated. Daily age group-, gender- and region-specific all-cause excess mortality during summer (June-August) 2015 was estimated, based on predictions derived from quasi-Poisson regression models fitted to the daily mortality data for the 10 previous years. Estimates of excess mortality were derived for 1 June to 31 August, at national and regional level, as well as by month and for specific heat episodes identified in summer 2015 by use of seven different definitions. 804 excess deaths (5.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0‒7.9%) were estimated for summer 2015 compared with previous summers, with the highest percentage obtained for July (11.6%, 95% CI 3.7‒19.4%). Seventy-seven percent of deaths occurred in people aged 75 years and older. Ticino (10.3%, 95% CI -1.8‒22.4%), Northwestern Switzerland (9.5%, 95% CI 2.7‒16.3%) and Espace Mittelland (8.9%, 95% CI 3.7‒14.1%) showed highest excess mortality during this three-month period, whereas fewer deaths than expected (-3.3%, 95% CI -9.2‒2.6%) were observed in Eastern Switzerland, the coldest region. The largest excess estimate of 23.7% was obtained during days when both maximum apparent and minimum night-time temperature reached extreme values (+32 and +20 °C, respectively), with 31.0% extra deaths for periods of three days or more. Heat during summer 2015 was associated with an increase in mortality in the warmer regions of Switzerland and it mainly affected older people. Estimates for 2015 were only a little lower compared to those of summer 2003, indicating that mitigation measures to prevent heat-related mortality in Switzerland have not become noticeably effective in the last 10 years.

Seasonal reversal of temperature-moisture response of net carbon exchange of biocrusted soils in a cool desert ecosystem.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, C.; Reed, S.; Howell, A.

2017-12-01

Carbon cycling associated with biological soil crusts, which occur in interspaces between vascular plants in drylands globally, may be an important part of the coupled climate-carbon cycle of the Earth system. A major challenge to understanding CO2 fluxes in these systems is that much of the biotic and biogeochemical activity occurs in the upper few mm of the soil surface layer (i.e., the `mantle of fertility'), which exhibits highly dynamic and difficult to measure temperature and moisture fluctuations. Here, we report data collected in a cool desert ecosystem over one year using a multi-sensor approach to simultaneously measuring temperature and moisture of the biocrust surface layer (0-2 mm), and the deeper soil profile (5-20 cm), concurrent with automated measurement of surface soil CO2 effluxes. Our results illuminate robust relationships between microclimate and field CO2 pulses that have previously been difficult to detect and explain. The temperature of the biocrust surface layer was highly variable, ranging from minimum of -9 °C in winter to maximum of 77 °C in summer with a maximum diurnal range of 61 °C. Temperature cycles were muted deeper in the soil profile. During summer, biocrust and soils were usually hot and dry and CO2 fluxes were tightly coupled to pulse wetting events experienced at the biocrust surface, which consistently resulted in net CO2 efflux (i.e., respiration). In contrast, during the winter, biocrust and soils were usually cold and moist, and there was sustained net CO2 uptake via photosynthesis by biocrust organisms, although during cold dry periods CO2 fluxes were minimal. During the milder spring and fall seasons, short wetting events drove CO2 loss, while sustained wetting events resulted in net CO2 uptake. Thus, the upper and lower bounds of net CO2 exchange at a point in time were functions of the seasonal temperature regime, while the actual flux within those bounds was determined by the magnitude and duration of biocrust and soil wetting events. These patterns reflect both the low temperature sensitivity and slow initiation in response to wetting of photosynthesis compared to respiration by biocrust organisms. Our study highlights the importance of cool and cold periods for C uptake in biocrusted soils of the Colorado Plateau.

Climate extremes in urban area and their impact on human health: the summer heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldi, Marina

2014-05-01

In the period 1951-2012 the average global land and ocean temperature has increased by approximately 0.72°C [0.49-0.89] when described by a linear trend, and is projected to rapidly increase. Each of the past three decades has been warmer than all the previous decades, with the decade of the 2000's as the warmest, and, since 1880, nine of the ten warmest years are in the 21st century, the only exception being 1998, which was warmed by the strongest El Niño event of the past century. In parallel an increase in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot days is detected with differences at different scales, which represent an health risk specially in largely populated areas as documented for several regions in the world including the Euro-Mediterranean region. If it is still under discussion if heat wave episodes are a direct result of the warming of the lower troposphere, or if, more likely, they are a regional climate event, however heat episodes have been studied in order to define their correlation with large scale atmospheric patterns and with changes in the regional circulation. Whatever the causes and the spatio-temporal extension of the episodes, epidemiological studies show that these conditions pose increasing health risks inducing heat-related diseases including hyperthermia and heat stress, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses in susceptible individuals with a significant increase in morbidity and mortality especially in densely populated urban areas. In several Mediterranean cities peaks of mortality associated with extremely high temperature (with simultaneous high humidity levels) have been documented showing that, in some cases, a large increase in daily mortality has been reached compared to the average for the period. The number of fatalities during the summer 2003 heat wave in Europe was estimated to largely exceed the average value of some between 22000 and 50000 cases. In the same summer it was also unusually hot across much of Asia, and Shanghai, which is particularly prone to heat waves, recorded the hottest summer in over 50 years. During the event, the maximum number of daily deaths was 317, 42% above the non-heat day average, even though an heat warning system in operation. In this study results from the analysis of heat waves events in Italian cities is presented. Indices representative of extremely hot conditions have been taken into account and results of the analysis of indices such as the number of summer days (SU), number of tropical nights (TR), maxima and minima of daily maximum and minimum temperatures (TXx, TXn, TNx, TNn, respectively), exceedances over fixed thresholds is presented. Results show a clear increase in the past decades of the numbers of days affected by heat events. Some considerations are also presented about the impact on human health of the longest events occurred in the Country.

Reconstruction of full glacial environments and summer temperatures from Lago della Costa, a refugial site in Northern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samartin, Stéphanie; Heiri, Oliver; Kaltenrieder, Petra; Kühl, Norbert; Tinner, Willy

2016-07-01

Vegetation and climate during the last ice age and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼23,000-19,000 cal BP) were considerably different than during the current interglacial (Holocene). Cold climatic conditions and growing ice-sheets during the last glaciation radically reduced forest extent in Europe to a restricted number of so-called ;refugia;, mostly located in the southern part of the continent. On the basis of paleobotanical analyses the Euganian Hills (Colli Euganei) in northeastern Italy have previously been proposed as one of the northernmost refugia of temperate trees (e.g. deciduous Quercus, Tilia, Ulmus, Fraxinus excelsior, Acer, Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Carpinus and Castanea) in Europe. In this study we provide the first quantitative, vegetation independent summer air temperature reconstruction for Northern Italy spanning the time ∼31,000-17,000 cal yr BP, which covers the coldest periods of the last glacial, including the LGM and Heinrich stadials 1 to 3. Chironomids preserved in a lake sediment core from Lago della Costa (7m a.s.l.), a small lake at the south-eastern edge of the Euganean Hills, allowed quantitative reconstruction of Full and Late Glacial summer air temperatures using a combined Swiss-Norwegian temperature inference model based on chironomid assemblages from 274 lakes. Chironomid and pollen evidence from Lago della Costa derives from finely stratified autochthonous organic gyttja sediments, which excludes major sediment mixing or reworking. After reconstructing paleo-temperatures, we address the question whether climate conditions were warm enough to permit the local survival of temperate tree species during the LGM and whether local expansions and pollen-inferred contractions of temperate tree taxa coincided with chironomid-inferred climatic changes. Our results suggest that chironomids at Lago della Costa have responded to major climatic fluctuations such as temperature decreases during the LGM and Heinrich stadials. The vegetation of the Euganean Hills shows responses to these climatic oscillations although the effects of temperature changes were probably also strongly influenced by changes in humidity. Reconstructed July air temperatures at Lago della Costa never fell below 10-13 °C (error range of reconstruction ∼ ±1.5-1.6 °C), which is considerably above the limit considered necessary for forest growth (8-10 °C). Instead rather mild climatic conditions prevailed ∼31,000-17,000 cal yr BP with average summer temperatures between ∼12 and 16 °C, which most likely allowed survival of temperate tree taxa in the warmest (and moistest) microhabitats of the Euganean Hills during the LGM. Only assuming local survival is it possible to explain the repeated expansions and collapses of temperate trees at Lago della Costa which faithfully accompanied the climatic oscillations.

Nine year active layer thermal monitoring at Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, Maritime Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Roberto; Andrade, André; Simas, Felipe; Silva, Tássio; Loureiro, Diego; Schaefer, Carlos

2017-04-01

Most global circulation models predict enhanced rates of climate change, particularly temperature increase, at higher latitudes witch are currently faced with rapid rates of regional climate change (Convey 2006, Vaughan et al. 2003, Quayle et al. 2002), Antarctic ecosystems are expected to show particular sensitivity and rapid responses (Freckman and Virginia 1997, Quayle et al. 2002, 2003). The active layer and permafrost are important components of the cryosphere due to their role in energy flux regulation and sensitivity to climate change (Kane et al., 2001; Smith and Brown, 2009). Compared with other regions of the globe, our understanding of Antarctic permafrost is poor, especially in relation to its thermal state and evolution, (Bockheim, 1995, Bockheim et al., 2008). The active layer monitoring site was installed in the summer of 2008, and consists of thermistors (accuracy ± 0.2 °C) arranged in a vertical array (Turbic Eutric Cryosol 60 m asl, 10.5 cm, 32.5 cm, 67.5 cm and 83.5 cm). All probes were connected to a Campbell Scientific CR 1000 data logger recording data at hourly intervals from March 1st 2008 until November 30th 2012. We calculated the thawing days (TD), freezing days (FD); thawing degree days (TDD) and freezing degree days (FDD); all according to Guglielmin et al. (2008). The active lawyer thickness was calculated as the 0 °C depth by extrapolating the thermal gradient from the two deepest temperature measurements (Guglielmin, 2006). The temperature at 10.5 cm reaches a maximum daily average (5.6 °C) in late January 2015, reaching a minimum (-9.6 °C) in in early August 2011, at 83.5 cm maximum daily average (0.6 °C) was reached in mid March 2009 and minimum (-5.5 °C) also in early August 2011. The years of 2008, 2009 and 2011 recorded thaw days at the bottom of the profile (62 and 49 in 2009 and 2011), and logged the highest soil moisture contents of the time series (62%, 59% and 63%). Seasonal variability of the active layer shows disparities between different years, especially in bottom most layer, where high summer temperatures trigger a increase in soil moisture content that can endure for several seasons. The winter of 2014 also deserves special attention, being the mildest winter recorded during the studied period; in July minimum monthly temperatures were -3.2 °C and -1.9 °C at 10.5 cm and 83.5 cm, it experienced 17 FD summing -0.61 FDD, average for the whole period was -7.5 °C, -3.9 °C, 27 FD and -55 FDD (2008 also had a mild winter but still hold 21 FD and -0,88 FDD at 83.5 cm in July). The summer of 2009 was the warmest facing 31 thawing days and summing 105 thawing degree days at 10.5 cm in January (28.7 thawing days and 66.3 thawing degree days average). The profile showed a increase in soil water content annual during warm summers, persisting for the following seasons, average is 44 % in 2008, 32 % in 2012 closing the time series with a annual average of 27 % in 2016, all values at 83.5 cm. Active layer thickness varied between 86 cm (max of 2015, March) and 117 cm (max of 2009, March). The active layer thermal regime over a 9 year period at Fildes Peninsula shows great variation between years, 2008, 2009 and 2011 presenting warm summers and 2014 being abnormally warm during Winter. Temperature fluctuations can affect the active layer in depth and the effects of warmer temperatures in the bottom of the profile can increase soil water content for several seasons.

Habitat Suitability Model for the Distribution of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in Minnesota

PubMed Central

Johnson, T. L.; Bjork, J. K. H.; Neitzel, D. F.; Dorr, F. M.; Schiffman, E. K.; Eisen, R. J.

2016-01-01

Ixodes scapularis Say, the black-legged tick, is the primary vector in the eastern United States of several pathogens causing human diseases including Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. Over the past two decades, I. scapularis-borne diseases have increased in incidence as well as geographic distribution. Lyme disease exists in two major foci in the United States, one encompassing northeastern states and the other in the Upper Midwest. Minnesota represents a state with an appreciable increase in counties reporting I. scapularis-borne illnesses, suggesting geographic expansion of vector populations in recent years. Recent tick distribution records support this assumption. Here, we used those records to create a fine resolution, subcounty-level distribution model for I. scapularis using variable response curves in addition to tests of variable importance. The model identified 19% of Minnesota as potentially suitable for establishment of the tick and indicated with high accuracy (AUC = 0.863) that the distribution is driven by land cover type, summer precipitation, maximum summer temperatures, and annual temperature variation. We provide updated records of established populations near the northwestern species range limit and present a model that increases our understanding of the potential distribution of I. scapularis in Minnesota. PMID:27026161

Thermoregulatory responses of Holstein and Brown Swiss Heat-Stressed dairy cows to two different cooling systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correa-Calderon, Abelardo; Armstrong, Dennis; Ray, Donald; DeNise, Sue; Enns, Mark; Howison, Christine

. Thirty-seven Holstein and 26 Brown Swiss dairy cows were used to evaluate the effect of two different cooling systems on physiological and hormonal responses during the summer. A control group of cows had access only to shade (C). A second group was cooled with spray and fans (S/F) and the third group was under an evaporative cooling system called Korral Kool (KK). The maximum temperature humidity index during the trial was from 73 to 85. Rectal temperatures and respiration rates of the C group were higher (P < 0.05) than those of the S/F and KK groups in both Holstein and Brown Swiss cows. Triiodothyronine levels in milk were higher (P < 0.05) in the KK group than in the S/F and C groups, while cortisol levels were lower (P < 0.05) in the C group than in S/F and KK. There was no significant difference in the hormonal response of the two breeds. These results demonstrate that both cooling systems may be used increase the comfort of Holstein and Brown Swiss cows during summer in hot, dry climates.

Meteorological factors affecting scrub typhus occurrence: a retrospective study of Yamagata Prefecture, Japan, 1984-2014.

PubMed

Seto, J; Suzuki, Y; Nakao, R; Otani, K; Yahagi, K; Mizuta, K

2017-02-01

Climate change, by its influence on the ecology of vectors might affect the occurrence of vector-borne diseases. This study examines the effects of meteorological factors in Japan on the occurrence of scrub typhus, a mite-borne zoonosis caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi. Using negative binomial regression, we analysed the relationships between meteorological factors (including temperature, rainfall, snowfall) and spring-early summer cases of scrub typhus in Yamagata Prefecture, Japan, during 1984-2014. The average temperature in July and August of the previous year, cumulative rainfall in September of the previous year, snowfall throughout the winter, and maximum depth of snow cover in January and February were positively correlated with the number of scrub typhus cases. By contrast, cumulative rainfall in July of the previous year showed a negative relationship to the number of cases. These associations can be explained by the life-cycle of Leptotrombidium pallidum, a predominant vector of spring-early summer cases of scrub typhus in northern Japan. Our findings show that several meteorological factors are useful to estimate the number of scrub typhus cases before the endemic period. They are applicable to establish an early warning system for scrub typhus in northern Japan.

Quantification and assessment of heat and cold waves in Novi Sad, Northern Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basarin, Biljana; Lukić, Tin; Matzarakis, Andreas

2016-01-01

Physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) has been applied to the analysis of heat and cold waves and human thermal conditions in Novi Sad, Serbia. A series of daily minimum and maximum air temperature, relative humidity, wind, and cloud cover was used to calculate PET for the investigated period 1949-2012. The heat and cold wave analysis was carried out on days with PET values exceeding defined thresholds. Additionally, the acclimatization approach was introduced to evaluate human adaptation to interannual thermal perception. Trend analysis has revealed the presence of increasing trend in summer PET anomalies, number of days above defined threshold, number of heat waves, and average duration of heat waves per year since 1981. Moreover, winter PET anomaly as well as the number of days below certain threshold and number of cold waves per year until 1980 was decreasing, but the decrease was not statistically significant. The highest number of heat waves during summer was registered in the last two decades, but also in the first decade of the investigated period. On the other hand, the number of cold waves during six decades is quite similar and the differences are very small.

Changes in the geographical distribution of malaria throughout history.

PubMed

de Zulueta, J

1987-01-01

Climatic changes must have greatly affected the distribution of malaria in prehistoric times. Paleobotanical evidence, snowline depression studies and information obtained from deep sea sediment cores, indicate that southern Europe must have suffered a drop of summer temperatures of approximately 9 degrees C during the last glacial maximum, 18,000 years ago. Such a drop would have been decisive as regards the distribution of malaria and its vectors. If present at all, the disease would have been confined to the southernmost parts of the continent but P. falciparum and today's most effective vectors--A. labranchiae and A. sacharovi--would have been excluded from Europe. In western Asia, summer temperatures 6 degrees C lower than those of today would have had less effect on the malaria situation. The introduction of falciparum malaria in southern Europe is placed in Hellenistic and Early Imperial Roman times, based on paleoclimatological evidence and historical and medical data. In America P. falciparum is also considered a late entrant but vivax and quartan malaria may have been introduced in pre-Columbian times. In the Pacific, the disease is known to have been spread by man since the Age of Discovery until contemporary times.

Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, Jonathan J.; Holland, Marika M.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2017-06-01

The dramatic warming of the Arctic over the last three decades has reduced both the thickness and extent of sea ice, opening opportunities for business in diverse sectors and increasing human exposure to meteorological hazards in the Arctic. It has been suggested that these changes in environmental conditions have led to an increase in extreme cyclones in the region, therefore increasing this hazard. In this study, we investigate the response of Arctic synoptic scale cyclones to climate change in a large initial value ensemble of future climate projections with the CESM1-CAM5 climate model (CESM-LE). We find that the response of Arctic cyclones in these simulations varies with season, with significant reductions in cyclone dynamic intensity across the Arctic basin in winter, but with contrasting increases in summer intensity within the region known as the Arctic Ocean cyclone maximum. There is also a significant reduction in winter cyclogenesis events within the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian sea region. We conclude that these differences in the response of cyclone intensity and cyclogenesis, with season, appear to be closely linked to changes in surface temperature gradients in the high latitudes, with Arctic poleward temperature gradients increasing in summer, but decreasing in winter.

Quantification and assessment of heat and cold waves in Novi Sad, Northern Serbia.

PubMed

Basarin, Biljana; Lukić, Tin; Matzarakis, Andreas

2016-01-01

Physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) has been applied to the analysis of heat and cold waves and human thermal conditions in Novi Sad, Serbia. A series of daily minimum and maximum air temperature, relative humidity, wind, and cloud cover was used to calculate PET for the investigated period 1949-2012. The heat and cold wave analysis was carried out on days with PET values exceeding defined thresholds. Additionally, the acclimatization approach was introduced to evaluate human adaptation to interannual thermal perception. Trend analysis has revealed the presence of increasing trend in summer PET anomalies, number of days above defined threshold, number of heat waves, and average duration of heat waves per year since 1981. Moreover, winter PET anomaly as well as the number of days below certain threshold and number of cold waves per year until 1980 was decreasing, but the decrease was not statistically significant. The highest number of heat waves during summer was registered in the last two decades, but also in the first decade of the investigated period. On the other hand, the number of cold waves during six decades is quite similar and the differences are very small.

The Effect of Cirrus Clouds on Water Vapor Transport in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, L.; McCormick, M. P.; Anderson, J.

2017-12-01

Water vapor plays an important role in the Earth's radiation budget and stratospheric chemistry. It is widely accepted that a large percentage of water vapor entering the stratosphere travels through the tropical tropopause and is dehydrated by the cold tropopause temperature. The vertical transport of water vapor is also affected by the radiative effects of cirrus clouds in the tropical tropopause layer. This latter effect of cirrus clouds was investigated in this research. The work focuses on the tropical and mid-latitude region (50N-50S). Water vapor data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and cirrus cloud data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) instruments were used to investigate the relationship between the water vapor and the occurrence of cirrus cloud. A 10-degree in longitude by 10-degree in latitude resolution was chosen to bin the MLS and CALIPSO data. The result shows that the maximum water vapor in the upper troposphere (below 146 hPa) is matched very well with the highest frequency of cirrus cloud occurrences. Maximum water vapor in the lower stratosphere (100 hPa) is partly matched with the maximum cirrus cloud occurrence in the summer time. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Interpolated Outgoing Longwave Radiation data and NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 wind data were used also to investigate the relationship between the water vapor entering the stratosphere, deep convection, and wind. Results show that maximum water vapor at 100 hPa coincides with the northern hemisphere summer-time anticyclone. The effects from both single-layer cirrus clouds and cirrus clouds above the anvil top on the water vapor entering the stratosphere were also studied and will be presented.

Physiologic and thermal responses of male and female patients with multiple sclerosis to head and neck cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ku, Y. T.; Montgomery, L. D.; Wenzel, K. C.; Webbon, B. W.; Burks, J. S.

1999-01-01

Personal cooling systems are used to alleviate symptoms of multiple sclerosis and to prevent increased core temperature during daily activities. The objective of this study was to determine the thermal and physiologic responses of patients with multiple sclerosis to short-term maximal head and neck cooling. A Life Support Systems, Inc. Mark VII portable cooling system and a liquid cooling helmet were used to cool the head and neck regions of 24 female and 26 male patients with multiple sclerosis in this study. The subjects, seated in an upright position at normal room temperature (approximately 22 degrees C), were cooled for 30 min by the liquid cooling garment, which was operated at its maximum cooling capacity. Oral, right, and left ear temperatures and cooling system parameters were logged manually every 5 min. Forearm, calf, chest, and rectal temperatures, heart rate, and respiration rate were recorded continuously on a U.F.I., Inc. Biolog ambulatory monitor. This protocol was performed during the winter and summer to investigate the seasonal differences in the way patients with multiple sclerosis respond to head and neck cooling. No significant differences were found between the male and female subject group's mean rectal or oral temperature responses during any phase of the experiment. The mean oral temperature decreased significantly (P < 0.05) for both groups approximately 0.3 degrees C after 30 min of cooling and continued to decrease further (approximately 0.1-0.2 degrees C) for a period of approximately 15 min after removal of the cooling helmet. The mean rectal temperatures decreased significantly (P < 0.05) in both male and female subjects in the winter studies (approximately 0.2-0.3 degrees C) and for the male subjects during the summer test (approximately 0.2 degrees C). However, the rectal temperature of the female subjects did not change significantly during any phase of the summer test. These data indicate that head and neck cooling may, in general, be used to reduce the oral and body temperatures of both male and female patients with multiple sclerosis by the approximate amount needed for symptomatic relief as shown by other researchers. However, thermal response of patients with multiple sclerosis may be affected by gender and seasonal factors, which should be considered in the use of liquid cooling therapy.

Tympanic temperature in confined beef cattle exposed to excessive heat load

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mader, T. L.; Gaughan, J. B.; Johnson, L. J.; Hahn, G. L.

2010-11-01

Angus crossbred yearling steers ( n = 168) were used to evaluate effects on performance and tympanic temperature (TT) of feeding additional potassium and sodium to steers exposed to excessive heat load (maximum daily ambient temperature exceeded 32°C for three consecutive days) during seasonal summer conditions. Steers were assigned one of four treatments: (1) control; (2) potassium supplemented (diet containing 2.10% KHCO3); (3) sodium supplemented (diet containing 1.10% NaCl); or (4) potassium and sodium supplemented (diet containing 2.10% KHCO3 and 1.10% NaCl). Overall, additional KHCO3 at the 2% level or NaCl at the 1% level did not improve performance or heat stress tolerance with these diet formulations. However, the addition of KHCO3 did enhance water intake. Independent of treatment effects, TT of cattle displaying high, moderate, or low levels of stress suggest that cattle that do not adequately cool down at night are prone to achieving greater body temperatures during a subsequent hot day. Cattle that are prone to get hot but can cool at night can keep average tympanic temperatures at or near those of cattle that tend to consistently maintain lower peak and mean body temperatures. In addition, during cooler and moderately hot periods, cattle change TT in a stair-step or incremental pattern, while under hot conditions, average TT of group-fed cattle moves in conjunction with ambient conditions, indicating that thermoregulatory mechanisms are at or near maximum physiological capacity.

Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coffel, E.; Horton, R.

2014-12-01

Weather is the most significant factor affecting aircraft operations, accounting for 70-80% of passenger delays and costing airlines hundreds of millions of dollars per year in lost revenue. Temperature and airport elevation significantly influence the maximum allowable takeoff weight of an aircraft by changing the surface air density and thus the lift produced at a given speed. For a given runway length, airport elevation, and aircraft type there is a temperature threshold above which the airplane cannot take off at its maximum weight and thus must be weight restricted. The number of summer days necessitating weight restriction has increased since 1980 along with the observed increase in surface temperature. Climate change is projected to increase mean temperatures at all airports and significantly increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat events at some. These changes will negatively affect aircraft performance, leading to increased weight restrictions especially at airports with short runways and little room to expand. For a Boeing 737-800 aircraft, we find that the number of weight restriction days between May and September will increase by 50-100% at four major airports in the United States by 2050-2070 under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. These performance reductions may have a significant economic effect on the airline industry, leading to lower profits and higher passenger fares. Increased weight restrictions have previously been identified as potential impacts of climate change, but this study is the first to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on commercial aviation.

Preventing heat illness in the anticipated hot climate of the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games.

PubMed

Kakamu, Takeyasu; Wada, Koji; Smith, Derek R; Endo, Shota; Fukushima, Tetsuhito

2017-09-19

Amid the effects of global warming, Tokyo has become an increasingly hot city, especially during the summertime. To prepare for the upcoming 2020 Summer Olympics and Paralympics in Tokyo, all participants, including the athletes, staff, and spectators, will need to familiarize themselves with Tokyo's hot and humid summer conditions. This paper uses the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index, which estimates the risk of heat illness, to compare climate conditions of sports events in Tokyo with the conditions of the past three Summer Olympics (held in Rio de Janeiro, London, and Beijing) and to subsequently detail the need for establishing appropriate countermeasures. We compared WBGT results from the past three Summer Olympics with the same time periods in Tokyo during 2016. There was almost no time zone where a low risk of heat illness could be expected during the time frame of the upcoming 2020 Tokyo Olympics. We also found that Tokyo had a higher WBGT than any of those previous host cities and is poorly suited for outdoor sporting events. Combined efforts by the official organizers, government, various related organizations, and the participants will be necessary to deal with these challenging conditions and to allow athletes to perform their best, as well as to prevent heat illnesses among staff and spectators. The sporting committees, as well as the Olympic organizing committee, should consider WBGT measurements in determining the venues and timing of the events to better avoid heat illness and facilitate maximum athletic performance.

Body temperature, activity patterns, and hunting in free-living cheetah: biologging reveals new insights.

PubMed

Hetem, Robyn S; Mitchell, Duncan; de Witt, Brenda A; Fick, Linda G; Maloney, Shane K; Meyer, Leith C R; Fuller, Andrea

2018-05-31

As one of the few felids that is predominantly diurnal, cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus Von Schreber, 1775) can be exposed to high heat loads in their natural habitat. Little is known about long-term patterns of body temperature and activity (including hunting) in cheetahs because long-term concurrent measurements of body temperature and activity never have been reported for cheetahs, or indeed for any free-living felid. We report here body temperature and locomotor activity measured with implanted data loggers over seven months in five free-living cheetahs in Namibia. Air temperature ranged from a maximum of 39ºC in summer to -2ºC in winter. Cheetahs had higher (∼0.4 ºC) maximum 24h body temperatures, later acrophase (∼1 h), with larger fluctuations in the range of the 24h body temperature rhythm (∼0.4 ºC) during a hot-dry period than during a cool-dry period, but maintained homeothermy irrespective of the climatic conditions. As ambient temperatures increased, the cheetahs shifted from a diurnal to a crepuscular activity pattern, with reduced activity between 9:00 and 15:00 and increased nocturnal activity. The timing of hunts followed the general pattern of activity; the cheetahs hunted when they were on the move. Cheetahs hunted if an opportunity presented itself, on occasion they hunted in the midday heat or in total darkness (new moon). Biologging revealed insights into cheetah biology that are not accessible by traditional observer-based techniques. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal Trends of Climate Variability in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad

Climatic trends in spatial and temporal variability of maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tmean) and precipitation were evaluated for 249 ground-based stations in North Carolina for 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK), the Theil-Sen Approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) tests were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend and the trend shift, respectively. The lag-1 serial correlation and double mass curve techniques were used to address the data independency and homogeneity. The pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of auto correlation of the data series. The difference between minimum and maximum temperatures, and so the diurnal temperature range (DTR), at some stations was found to be decreasing on both an annual and a seasonal basis, with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. For precipitation, a statewide increasing trend in fall (highest in November) and decreasing trend in winter (highest in February) were detected. No pronounced increasing/decreasing trends were detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Trend analysis on a spatial scale (for three physiographic regions: mountain, piedmont and coastal) revealed mixed results. Coastal zone exhibited increasing mean temperature (warming) trend as compared to other locations whereas mountain zone showed decreasing trend (cooling). Three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover, and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlative analysis purposes with the temperature (specifically with DTR) and precipitation trends. It appears that the moisture components are associated with DTR more than the circulation modes in North Carolina.

Upper lethal temperatures in three cold-tolerant insects are higher in winter than in summer.

PubMed

Vu, Henry M; Duman, John G

2017-08-01

Upper lethal temperatures (ULTs) of cold-adapted insect species in winter have not been previously examined. We anticipated that as the lower lethal temperatures (LLTs) decreased (by 20-30°C) with the onset of winter, the ULTs would also decrease accordingly. Consequently, given the recent increases in winter freeze-thaw cycles and warmer winters due to climate change, it became of interest to determine whether ambient temperatures during thaws were approaching ULTs during the cold seasons. However, beetle Dendroides canadensis (Coleoptera: Pyrochroidae) larvae had higher 24 and 48 h ULT 50 (the temperature at which 50% mortality occurred) in winter than in summer. The 24 and 48 h ULT 50 for D. canadensis in winter were 40.9 and 38.7°C, respectively. For D. canadensis in summer, the 24 and 48 h ULT 50 were 36.7 and 36.4°C. During the transition periods of spring and autumn, the 24 h ULT 50 was 37.3 and 38.5°C, respectively. While D. canadensis in winter had a 24 h LT 50 range between LLT and ULT of 64°C, the summer range was only 41°C. Additionally, larvae of the beetle Cucujus clavipes clavipes (Coleoptera: Cucujidae) and the cranefly Tipula trivittata (Diptera: Tipulidae) also had higher ULTs in winter than in summer. This unexpected phenomenon of increased temperature survivorship at both lower and higher temperatures in the winter compared with that in the summer has not been previously documented. With the decreased high temperature tolerance as the season progresses from winter to summer, it was observed that environmental temperatures are closest to upper lethal temperatures in spring. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Oral temperatures of the elderly in nursing homes in summer and winter in relation to activities of daily living

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, K.; Tanaka, Masatoshi; Motohashi, Yutaka; Maeda, Akira

This study was conducted to clarify the seasonal difference in body temperature in summer and winter, and to document the thermal environment of the elderly living in nursing homes. The subjects were 57 healthy elderly people aged >=63 years living in two nursing homes in Japan. One of the homes was characterized by subjects with low levels of activities of daily living (ADL). Oral temperatures were measured in the morning and afternoon, with simultaneous recording of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Oral temperatures in summer were higher than in winter, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05) of 0.25 (SD 0.61) °C in the morning and 0.24 (SD 0.50) °C in the afternoon. Differences between oral temperatures in summer and winter tended to be greater in subjects with low ADL scores, even when their room temperature was well-controlled. In conclusion, the oral temperatures of the elderly are lower in winter than summer, particularly in physically inactive people. It appears that those with low levels of ADL are more vulnerable to large changes in ambient temperature.

Predicting future threats to the long-term survival of Gila Trout using a high-resolution simulation of climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kennedy, Thomas L.; Gutzler, David S.; Leung, Lai R.

2008-11-20

Regional climates are a major factor in determining the distribution of many species. Anthropogenic inputs of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere have been predicted to cause rapid climatic changes in the next 50-100 years. Species such as the Gila Trout (Onchorhynchus gilae) that have small ranges, limited dispersal capabilities, and narrow physiological tolerances will become increasingly susceptible to extinction as their climate envelope changes. This study uses a regional climate change simulation (Leung et al. 2004) to determine changes in the climate envelope for Gila Trout, which is sensitive to maximum temperature, associated with a plausible scenario for greenhouse gasmore » increases. The model predicts approximately a 2° C increase in temperature and a doubling by the mid 21st Century in the annual number of days during which temperature exceeds 37°C, and a 25% increase in the number of days above 32°C, across the current geographical range of Gila Trout. At the same time summer rainfall decreases by more than 20%. These climate changes would reduce their available habitat by decreasing the size of their climate envelope. Warmer temperatures coupled with a decrease in summer precipitation would also tend to increase the intensity and frequency of forest fires that are a major threat to their survival. The climate envelope approach utilized here could be used to assess climate change threats to other rare species with limited ranges and dispersal capabilities.« less

Fremont Lake, Wyoming - Preliminary survey of a large mountain lake: A section in Geological Survey research 1972, Chapter D

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rickert, David A.; Leopold, Luna Bergere

1972-01-01

Fremont Lake, at an altitude of 2,261 m, has an area of 20.61 km2 and a volume of 1.69 km3. The maximum depth is 185 m, which makes it the seventh deepest natural lake in the conterminous United States. Theoretical renewal time is 11.1 years. Temperature data for 1971 indicate that vernal circulation extended to a depth of less than 90 m. The summer heat income was 19,450 cal/cm2. The dissolved-oxygen curve is orthograde, with a slight metalimnetic maximum, and a tendency toward decreasing concentrations at depth. At 180 m, oxygen was at 80 percent of saturation in late July 1970. The lake has a remarkably low dissolved-solids content of 12.8 mg/l, making it one of the most dilute medium-sized lakes in the world. Detailed chemical data are given for the water column at three sites in the lake and for the influent and effluent streams. Net plankton included representatives of seven genera of phytoplankters and three genera of zooplankters. A reconnaissance indicated substantially no bacteriological contamination in the lake, but there was an appreciable amount in two minor streams in the vicinity of a summer-home colony.

Understanding Multiscale Surface Water-Groundwater Interactions on Scott River Watershed Temperatures with the use of Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) in Support of the Coldwater Salmonid Fishery Beneficial Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hines, R. J.; Harter, T.; Tyler, S. W.; McFadin, B.; Yokel, E.

2008-12-01

The Scott River is a major tributary to the Klamath River that provides cold water rearing habitat for wild salmonid populations, including coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch), Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha), and steelhead trout (O. mykiss). During the summer months (July through September), the main-stem Scott River becomes disconnected from its tributaries throughout much of Scott Valley and relies primarily on baseflow from the groundwater aquifer. Summer stream temperatures in the Scott River are currently at levels that are not considered sustainable for the native salmonid population, resulting in the enactment of a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for temperature. Two of the conditions affecting stream temperature have been identified as increases in solar radiation due to a reduction in riparian vegetation and decreased accretion of groundwater. In conjunction with a regional scale surface water-groundwater modeling effort to investigate the benefits of various conjunctive use management alternatives on mid- and late summer baseflow in the Scott River, we completed high-resolution field measurements of stream temperature over an approximately 1,050-meter reach. Temperatures were measured using Fiber-Optic Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) techniques. The DTS survey in combination with FLIR stream surface temperature data from 2003 indicate that groundwater discharge to the Scott River is highly localized throughout the valley. The results of the DTS survey depict highly localized areas of groundwater accretion, as well as prominent localized temperature effects from riparian vegetation and river geomorphology. While originally modeled as a well-mixed stream during FLIR analysis, the DTS data further suggest that locally strong, vertical thermal gradients are found near the bottom of the active stream channel. The high-resolution temperature measurements were paired with fish surveys in order to determine the correlation between areas of identified lower river temperatures, groundwater accretion and other beneficial salmonid habitat indicators. Our work suggests that understanding of local-scale groundwater-stream interaction and analysis of corresponding local-scale geologic and riparian vegetation controls are critical to understanding the basin-scale groundwater-stream interactions. Preliminary data reviews indicate that groundwater discharge leads to distinct cold temperature pools near the streambed, while the remainder of the stream column is thermally well mixed. This local-scale, three-dimensional understanding is necessary if strategies are to be developed that aim for effective water resource management practices and improved beneficial use habitat. A multi-scale field reconnaissance and modeling approach is suggested to develop water management practices that lead to better habitat protection throughout the watershed.

Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

2013-05-01

This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

Impacts of Canadian and global black carbon shipping emissions on Arctic climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, R.; von Salzen, K.

2017-12-01

Shipping activities have increased across the Arctic and are projected to continue to increase in the future. In this study we compare the climate impacts of Canadian and global shipping black carbon (BC) emissions on the Arctic using the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Earth System Model (CanESM4.1). The model simulations are performed with and without shipping emissions at T63 (128 x 64) spectral resolution. Results indicate that shipping activities enhance BC concentrations across the area close to the shipping emissions, which causes increased absorption of solar radiation (direct effect). An impact of shipping on temperatures is simulated across the entire Arctic, with maximum warming in fall and winter seasons. Although global mean temperature changes are very similar between the two simulations, increase in Canadian BC shipping emissions cause warmer Arctic land surface temperature in summer due to the direct radiative effects of aerosol.

Environmental controls on the increasing GPP of terrestrial vegetation across northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dass, P.; Rawlins, M. A.; Kimball, J. S.; Kim, Y.

2016-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems of northern Eurasia are demonstrating an increasing gross primary productivity (GPP), yet few studies have provided definitive attribution for the changes. While prior studies point to increasing temperatures as the principle environmental control, influences from moisture and other factors are less clear. We assess how changes in temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, and forest fires individually contribute to changes in GPP derived from satellite data across northern Eurasia using a light-use- efficiency-based model, for the period 1982-2010. We find that annual satellite-derived GPP is most sensitive to the temperature, precipitation and cloudiness of summer, which is the peak of the growing season and also the period of the year when the GPP trend is maximum. Considering the regional median, the summer temperature explains as much as 37.7 % of the variation in annual GPP, while precipitation and cloudiness explain 20.7 and 19.3 %. Warming over the period analysed, even without a sustained increase in precipitation, led to a significant positive impact on GPP for 61.7 % of the region. However, a significant negative impact on GPP was also found, for 2.4 % of the region, primarily the dryer grasslands in the south-west of the study area. For this region, precipitation positively correlates with GPP, as does cloudiness. This shows that the south-western part of northern Eurasia is relatively more vulnerable to drought than other areas. While our results further advance the notion that air temperature is the dominant environmental control for recent GPP increases across northern Eurasia, the role of precipitation and cloudiness can not be ignored.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States.

PubMed

McGeehin, M A; Mirabelli, M

2001-05-01

Heat and heat waves are projected to increase in severity and frequency with increasing global mean temperatures. Studies in urban areas show an association between increases in mortality and increases in heat, measured by maximum or minimum temperature, heat index, and sometimes, other weather conditions. Health effects associated with exposure to extreme and prolonged heat appear to be related to environmental temperatures above those to which the population is accustomed. Models of weather-mortality relationships indicate that populations in northeastern and midwestern U.S. cities are likely to experience the greatest number of illnesses and deaths in response to changes in summer temperature. Physiologic and behavioral adaptations may reduce morbidity and mortality. Within heat-sensitive regions, urban populations are the most vulnerable to adverse heat-related health outcomes. The elderly, young children, the poor, and people who are bedridden or are on certain medications are at particular risk. Heat-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable through behavioral adaptations, including the use of air conditioning and increased fluid intake. Overall death rates are higher in winter than in summer, and it is possible that milder winters could reduce deaths in winter months. However, the relationship between winter weather and mortality is difficult to interpret. Other adaptation measures include heat emergency plans, warning systems, and illness management plans. Research is needed to identify critical weather parameters, the associations between heat and nonfatal illnesses, the evaluation of implemented heat response plans, and the effectiveness of urban design in reducing heat retention.

Determination of Germination Response to Temperature and Water Potential for a Wide Range of Cover Crop Species and Related Functional Groups

PubMed Central

Tribouillois, Hélène; Dürr, Carolyne; Demilly, Didier; Wagner, Marie-Hélène; Justes, Eric

2016-01-01

A wide range of species can be sown as cover crops during fallow periods to provide various ecosystem services. Plant establishment is a key stage, especially when sowing occurs in summer with high soil temperatures and low water availability. The aim of this study was to determine the response of germination to temperature and water potential for diverse cover crop species. Based on these characteristics, we developed contrasting functional groups that group species with the same germination ability, which may be useful to adapt species choice to climatic sowing conditions. Germination of 36 different species from six botanical families was measured in the laboratory at eight temperatures ranging from 4.5–43°C and at four water potentials. Final germination percentages, germination rate, cardinal temperatures, base temperature and base water potential were calculated for each species. Optimal temperatures varied from 21.3–37.2°C, maximum temperatures at which the species could germinate varied from 27.7–43.0°C and base water potentials varied from -0.1 to -2.6 MPa. Most cover crops were adapted to summer sowing with a relatively high mean optimal temperature for germination, but some Fabaceae species were more sensitive to high temperatures. Species mainly from Poaceae and Brassicaceae were the most resistant to water deficit and germinated under a low base water potential. Species were classified, independent of family, according to their ability to germinate under a range of temperatures and according to their base water potential in order to group species by functional germination groups. These groups may help in choosing the most adapted cover crop species to sow based on climatic conditions in order to favor plant establishment and the services provided by cover crops during fallow periods. Our data can also be useful as germination parameters in crop models to simulate the emergence of cover crops under different pedoclimatic conditions and crop management practices. PMID:27532825

Summer Leeside Rainfall Maxima over the Island of Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y. F.; Chen, Y. L.

2016-12-01

The Kona area on the leeside in the island of Hawaii has distinctive summer rainfall maxima. The primary physical processes for the summer rainfall maxima in Kona are analyzed by comparing it with the winter rainfall. The annual and diurnal cycles there are investigated by employing the Fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model coupled with the advanced land surface model from June 2004 and February 2010. During the summer, the nocturnal rainfall maximum adjacent to the Kona coast is larger than in winter because of the stronger, moister westerly reversed flow and offshore flow in summer. Comparisons between winter trade-wind days and winter mean show that the leeside Kona rainfall offshore in winter mainly occurs under trade-wind conditions. Moreover, the model results also attest to the impact of moisture content on the Kona leeside rainfall offshore. Comparisons between winter and summer trade-wind days indicate that upslope flows on the Kona slopes are stronger and the moisture content from the westerly reversed flow is higher in summer than in winter. The rainfall maximum on the lower Kona slopes is more pronounced in summer than in winter as a result of enhanced orographic lifting due to stronger upslope flow in the afternoon hours and the moister westerly reversed flow offshore, which merges with the upslope flow inland.

Temperature Trends in the Polar Mesosphere between 2002-2007 using TIMED/SABER Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Richard A.; Kutepov, Alexander A.; Pesnell, William Dean; Latteck, Ralph; Russell, James M.

2008-01-01

The TIMED Satellite was launched on December 7, 2001 to study the dynamics and energy of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The TIMED/SABER instrument is a limb scanning infrared radiometer designed to measure a large number of minor constituents as well as the temperature of the region. In this study, we have concentrated on the polar mesosphere, to investigate the temperature characteristics as a function of spatial and temporal considerations. We used the recently revised SABER dataset (1.07) that contains improved temperature retrievals in the Earth polar summer regions. Weekly averages are used to make comparisons between the winter and summer, as well as to study the variability in different quadrants of each hemisphere. For each year studied, the duration of polar summer based on temperature measurements compares favorably with the PMSE (Polar Mesospheric Summer Echoes) season measured by radar at the ALOMAR Observatory in Norway (69 N). The PMSE period should also define the summer period suitable for the occurrence of polar mesospheric clouds. The unusual short and relatively warm polar summer in the northern hemisphere

Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen V.

2017-01-01

In the last decades drought has become one of the natural disasters with most relevant impacts in Europe and this not only in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean that are inclined to such events. As a complex natural phenomenon, drought is characterized by many hydro-meteorological aspects, a large variety of possible impacts and definitions. This study focuses on meteorological drought, investigated by using indicators that include precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), i.e. the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). These indicators account for the lack of precipitation and the drying effects of hot temperatures and in this study have been computed for short-accumulation periods (3-month) to capture the seasonality of droughts. The input variables, monthly precipitation and temperature for 1950-2015, stem from daily gridded E-OBS data and indicators were computed on regular grids spanning over the whole of Europe. PET was calculated from minimum and maximum temperatures using the Hargreaves-Samani formulation. Monthly precipitation and PET have then been used to compute the SPI-3 and the SPEI-3 time series. From these series drought events were defined at seasonal scale and trends of frequency and severity of droughts and extreme droughts were analyzed for the periods 1950-2015 and 1981-2015. According to the SPI (driven by precipitation), results show a statistically significant tendency towards less frequent and severe drought events over North-Eastern Europe, especially in winter and spring, and a moderate opposite tendency over Southern Europe, especially in spring and summer. According to the SPEI (driven by precipitation and temperature), Northern Europe shows similar wetting patterns, while Southern and Eastern Europe show a more remarkable drying tendency, especially in summer and autumn. Both for frequency and severity, the evolution towards drier conditions is more relevant in the last three decades over Central Europe in spring, the Mediterranean area in summer, and Eastern Europe in autumn.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets

PubMed Central

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “extremely hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “extremely hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

Warming and wetting signals emerging from analysis of changes in climate extreme indices over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skansi, María de los Milagros; Brunet, Manola; Sigró, Javier; Aguilar, Enric; Arevalo Groening, Juan Andrés; Bentancur, Oscar J.; Castellón Geier, Yaruska Rosa; Correa Amaya, Ruth Leonor; Jácome, Homero; Malheiros Ramos, Andrea; Oria Rojas, Clara; Pasten, Alejandro Max; Sallons Mitro, Sukarni; Villaroel Jiménez, Claudia; Martínez, Rodney; Alexander, Lisa V.; Jones, P. D.

2013-01-01

Here we show and discuss the results of an assessment of changes in both area-averaged and station-based climate extreme indices over South America (SA) for the 1950-2010 and 1969-2009 periods using high-quality daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation series. A weeklong regional workshop in Guayaquil (Ecuador) provided the opportunity to extend the current picture of changes in climate extreme indices over SA. Our results provide evidence of warming and wetting across the whole SA since the mid-20th century onwards. Nighttime (minimum) temperature indices show the largest rates of warming (e.g. for tropical nights, cold and warm nights), while daytime (maximum) temperature indices also point to warming (e.g. for cold days, summer days, the annual lowest daytime temperature), but at lower rates than for minimums. Both tails of night-time temperatures have warmed by a similar magnitude, with cold days (the annual lowest nighttime and daytime temperatures) seeing reductions (increases). Trends are strong and moderate (moderate to weak) for regional-averaged (local) indices, most of them pointing to a less cold SA during the day and warmer night-time temperatures. Regionally-averaged precipitation indices show clear wetting and a signature of intensified heavy rain events over the eastern part of the continent. The annual amounts of rainfall are rising strongly over south-east SA (26.41 mm/decade) and Amazonia (16.09 mm/decade), but north-east Brazil and the western part of SA have experienced non-significant decreases. Very wet and extremely days, the annual maximum 5-day and 1-day precipitation show the largest upward trends, indicating an intensified rainfall signal for SA, particularly over Amazonia and south-east SA. Local trends for precipitation extreme indices are in general less coherent spatially, but with more general spatially coherent upward trends in extremely wet days over all SA.

[Eco-physiological investigations on wild and cultivated plants in the Negev Desert : II. The influence of climatic factors on carbon dioxide exchange and transpiration at the end of the dry period].

PubMed

Schulze, E -D; Lange, O L; Koch, W

1972-12-01

The influence of climatic factors on net photosynthesis, dark respiration and transpiration was investigated in the Negev Desert at the end of the dry summer period when plant water stress was at a maximum. Species studied included: dominant species of the natural vegetation (Artemisia herba-alba, Hammada scoparia, Noaea mucronata, Reaumuria negevensis, Salsola inermis, Zygophyllum dumosum), cultivated plants receiving rainfall and run-off water during the winter season in the run-off farm Avdat (Prunus armeniaca, Vitis vinifera), and irrigated cultivated plants receiving additional water during the summer season (Citrullus colocynthis, Datura metel). 1. Light saturation of net photosynthesis was reached at 60-90 klx conforming to the high solar radiation intensities of the desert. 2. Maximum rates of CO 2 uptake per unit of dry weight for the irrigated mesomorphic plants was ten times that of the wild plants. However, in comparison to the other species, maximal rates of CO 2 uptake for wild plants were higher when calculated on a leaf area basis than when represented on a dry weight basis. Maximum rates of net photosynthesis per unit chlorophyll content for some of the wild plants (Salsola and Noaea) were comparable to those of the cultivated Vitis and irrigated Citrullus and Datura, Hammada exhibited even higher rates than Prunus. This demonstrates the great photosynthetic capacity of the wild plants even at the end of the dry season. 3. The upper temperature compensation point for net photosynthesis of the wild plants was unusually high as an adaptation to the temperatures of the habitat. Compensation points higher than 49°C exceed the maxima known so far for other flowering species. Maximum rates of net photosynthesis of Hammada were measured when the temperature of the photosynthetic organs was 37°C; at 49°C photosynthesis was only reduced by 50%. 4. Leaf temperature affects plant gas exchange by influencing stomatal aperture. Diffusion resistance of leaves to water vapour was reduced at low temperatures and increased at high temperatures. Reduction of net photosynthesis and transpiration of desert plants at midday may, therefore, be the result of temperature-induced stomatal closure. The possible influence of peristomatal transpiration on stomatal aperture is also discussed. Peristomatal transpiration is directly related to the vapour pressure gradient between the leaf mesophyll and the ambient air which increases with increasing temperatures. 5. Diffusion resistance to water vapour was reduced at high temperatures approaching the limits of heat resistance, due to increased stomatal aperture. This resulted in greater transpirational cooling. 6. Under conditions of increased leaf water stress, diffusion resistance increased, either by sudden stomatal closure at specific threshold values of water stress or through a continuous increase in resistance. This increased resistance is coupled with decreases in transpiration and photosynthesis. 7. In several plant species increased diffusion resistance during the course of the day caused decreased transpiration without a corresponding decrease in photosynthesis. Under these conditions, the ratio of CO 2 uptake to transpiration became more favourable as the day progressed. The possibility that this favourable gas exchange response is the result of an increased mesophyll resistance to water vapour loss is discussed.

The use of early summer mosquito surveillance to predict late summer West Nile virus activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, Howard S.; Rochlin, Ilia; Campbell, Scott R.

2010-01-01

Utility of early-season mosquito surveillance to predict West Nile virus activity in late summer was assessed in Suffolk County, NY. Dry ice-baited CDC miniature light traps paired with gravid traps were set weekly. Maximum-likelihood estimates of WNV positivity, minimum infection rates, and % positive pools were generally well correlated. However, positivity in gravid traps was not correlated with positivity in CDC light traps. The best early-season predictors of WNV activity in late summer (estimated using maximum-likelihood estimates of Culex positivity in August and September) were early date of first positive pool, low numbers of mosquitoes in July, and low numbers of mosquito species in July. These results suggest that early-season entomological samples can be used to predict WNV activity later in the summer, when most human cases are acquired. Additional research is needed to establish which surveillance variables are most predictive and to characterize the reliability of the predictions.

Potential impacts of the Arctic on interannual and interdecadal summer precipitation over China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yuefeng; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

2013-02-01

After the end of the 1970s, there has been a tendency for enhanced summer precipitation over South China and the Yangtze River valley and drought over North China and Northeastern China. Coincidentally, Arctic ice concentration has decreased since the late 1970s, with larger reduction in summer than spring. However, the Arctic warming is more significant in spring than summer, suggesting that spring Arctic conditions could be more important in their remote impacts. This study investigates the potential impacts of the Arctic on summer precipitation in China. The leading spatial patterns and time coefficients of the unfiltered, interannual, and interdecadal precipitationmore » (1960-2008) modes were analyzed and compared using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, which shows that the first three EOFs can capture the principal precipitation patterns (northern, central and southern patterns) over eastern China. Regression of the Arctic spring and summer temperature onto the time coefficients of the leading interannual and interdecadal precipitation modes shows that interdecadal summer precipitation in China is related to the Arctic spring warming, but the relationship with Arctic summer temperature is weak. Moreover, no notable relationships were found between the first three modes of interannual precipitation and Arctic spring or summer temperatures. Finally, correlations between summer precipitation and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index from January to August were investigated, which indicate that summer precipitation in China correlates with AO only to some extent. Overall, this study suggests important relationships between the Arctic spring temperature and summer precipitation over China at the interdecadal time scale.« less

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is compensated by larger increases in sensible and latent heat fluxes out of the ocean. Although the net energy loss from the ocean surface increases by 0.8 W (per square meters), this is less than the interannual variability, and the increase may not indicate a long-term trend. The seasonal cycle of heat fluxes is significantly enhanced. The downward surface heat flux increases in summer (maximum 2 of 19 W per square meters or 23% in June) while the upward heat flux increases in winter (maximum of 16 W per square meters or 28% in November). The increased downward flux in summer is due to a combination of increases in absorbed solar and thermal radiation and smaller losses of sensible and latent heat. The increased heat loss in winter is due to increased sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn are due to reduced sea-ice cover. On the other hand, the seasonal cycle of surface air temperature is damped, as there is a large increase in winter temperature but little change in summer.

Predominant terminal electron accepting processes during organic matter degradation: Spatio-temporal changes in Ashtamudi estuary, Kerala, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, Salom Gnana Thanga; Reshmi, R. R.; Hassan, S. Junaid; Nair, K. Deepa; Varma, Ajayakumar

2017-11-01

Anaerobic microbial communities in the anoxic zones degrade organic matter in estuarine sediments. Thermodynamic energy yield for the oxidation reactions with various electron acceptors decreases in the order of O2> NO3- > Mn4+> Fe3+> SO42- > CO2. The predominant terminal electron accepting (TEA) process has an influence on the biogeochemical cycles of nutrients as well as the production of important greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide and methane from estuarine sediments. The research questions of this study were (1) what are the environmental factors (pH, salinity, organic carbon, sulphate, redox potential) explaining variability in TEA activities such as nitrate reduction rate (NRR), iron reduction rate (IRR), sulphate reduction rate (SRR) and methane production rate (MPR) and (2) which is the predominant TEA process during degradation of organic matter. To determine the TEA activities, sediment samples collected from 13 sampling stations of Ashtamudi estuary during monsoon 2014 and summer 2015 were incubated with sulphate depleted artificial seawater, under anaerobic conditions for 72 h, in microcosms. Spatial variations dominated temporal variations for environmental variables. Nevertheless, biogeochemical processes showed a distinct seasonal variation. Total TEA activity was higher during summer than monsoon, indicating the higher heterotrophic microbial activity favored by high temperature. Individually, SRR was the maximum during summer, while NRR, IRR and MPR were the maximum during monsoon. Sulphate reduction was observed to be the predominant electron accepting process in all sampling stations with cumulative values of 3125.79 and 4046.07 nmol cm-3 day-1 during monsoon and summer respectively. This was followed by NRR, IRR and MPR. Although thermodynamically more favorable, NRR could not predominate due to scarcity of nitrate in sediments. Nevertheless, two-fold and five-fold increase in methanogenesis and denitrification were observed respectively during monsoon in sampling stations, which cannot be ignored, owing to the importance of methane and nitrous oxide as a potent greenhouse gas.

Response of sunshine bass (Morone chrysops x M. saxatilis) to digestible protein/dietary lipid density and ration size at summer culture temperatures in the Southern United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Temperature and ammonia levels often increase dramatically in ponds during summer production of sunshine bass and summer temperatures are projected to increase in the Southern US. Extended periods of high ammonia result in fish stress, disease, mortality and significant loss of feeding days as pro...

Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991-2015 versus 1961-1990

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pińskwar, Iwona; Choryński, Adam; Graczyk, Dariusz; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2018-01-01

Several episodes of extreme precipitation excess and extreme precipitation deficit, with considerable economic and social impacts, have occurred in Europe and in Poland in the last decades. However, the changes of related indices exhibit complex variability. This paper analyses changes in indices related to observed abundance and deficit of precipitated water in Poland. Among studied indices are maximum seasonal 24-h precipitation for the winter half-year (Oct.-March) and the summer half-year (Apr.-Sept.), maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum monthly precipitation and number of days with intense or very intense precipitation (respectively, in excess of 10 mm or 20 mm per day). Also, the warm-seasonal maximum number of consecutive dry days (longest period with daily precipitation below 1 mm) was examined. Analysis of precipitation extremes showed that daily maximum precipitation for the summer half-year increased for many stations, and increases during the summer half-year are more numerous than those in the winter half-year. Also, analysis of 5-day and monthly precipitation sums show increases for many stations. Number of days with intense precipitation increases especially in the north-western part of Poland. The number of consecutive dry days is getting higher for many stations in the summer half-year. Comparison of these two periods: colder 1961-1990 and warmer 1991-2015, revealed that during last 25 years most of statistical indices, such as 25th and 75th percentiles, median, mean and maximum are higher. However, many changes discussed in this paper are weak and statistically insignificant. The findings reported in this paper challenge results based on earlier data that do not include 2007-2015.

Climate Change in the Western United States: Projections and Observations (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmond, K. T.

2009-12-01

The interplay between projections and observations of climate, and the role of observations as they unfold, form the primary emphasis for this talk. The consensus among climate projections is that the Western United States will warm, and that annual precipitation will increase near the Canada/US border and decrease near the Mexico/US border. Inter-model agreement is greater for temperature than precipitation, though precipitation projections show some tendency toward slow convergence. Seasonal temperature changes are expected to be similar from month to month, slightly greater in summer and slightly smaller in winter. Coastal temperature increases are expected to be smaller than inland. High elevation increases may be slightly greater than those at low elevation. The precipitation season is in general expected to be more concentrated in winter, with less (or less increase, depending on latitude) precipitation in spring, summer, and autumn than without climate change. Climate should have started to depart from the baseline (no-change) case about 30-35 years ago. Observations show that temperatures West-wide did begin to rise during the 1970s. Precipitation changes have been more ambiguous. Annual temperature increases in the U.S. have been much more prominent in the West (and to some extent the north) than in the East, especially during the last decade. Summer in particular has shown a marked temperature increase since around 2000. Minimum temperatures have shown more increase (in many cases considerably more) than maximum temperatures. Annual freezing levels, from essentially independent data sets, have risen during this time. Acceptance of climate change in the public mind is increased when evidence visibly aligns with projections. This appears to have been particularly important in the western states. However, other sources of climate variability, of human or natural origin, on seasonal to decadal scales, can obscure or partially and temporarily mask expected effects of greenhouse gas forcing. Observational factors can likewise affect the reported climate history. Changes in climate elements have been detected, but parallel efforts at attribution are necessary to properly interpret the measurements, and provide the consistency desired by scientists and the remainder of the public. All of the above factors converge in the region's most prominent climate narrative, the ongoing Colorado River drought and its uncertain outcome.

Relationships between ambient conditions, thermal status, and feed intake of cattle during summer heat stress with access to shade.

PubMed

Curtis, A K; Scharf, B; Eichen, P A; Spiers, D E

2017-01-01

Heat stress in feedlot cattle is known to reduce their performance. The challenge comes in determining reliable predictors of current and near-future changes in thermal status and performance. A 42-d study, using crossbred (Bos taurus) steers was conducted during summer months (July through August) to identify best environmental determinants of rumen temperature (T rumen ) and feed intake (FI) in feedlot cattle with access to shade. A further goal was to define the relationship between T rumen and FI. Shade coverage was approximately 50%, and all animals were provided standard feedlot diets and water ad libitum. Intraruminal telemetric boluses recorded T rumen several times each hour. Ear tags, telemetrically connected to a feed monitoring system, provided FI data using RFID technology. Data loggers recorded ambient conditions in sun and shade, along with black globe temperature. Regression analyses identified daylight black globe and air temperatures in shade, with one hour delays, as the best predictors of T rumen . Prediction of FI was much less reliable. Unexpectedly, T rumen was not superior to ambient variables in predicting FI. Maximum daily temperature humidity index, calculated using BG in sun with a 5-d lag, was the best significant predictor of FI. These results indicate for feedlot cattle that although air temperature alone in the shade may be the best predictor of T rumen in the heat, black globe temperature in the sun may be a better determinant of feed intake over time. Additional studies are needed to verify the delayed FI response which seems unusually long. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applications of a New England stream temperature model to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We have applied a statistical stream network (SSN) model to predict stream thermal metrics (summer monthly medians, growing season maximum magnitude and timing, and daily rates of change) across New England nontidal streams and rivers, excluding northern Maine watersheds that extend into Canada (Detenbeck et al., in review). We excluded stream temperature observations within one kilometer downstream of dams from our model development, so our predictions for those reaches represent potential thermal regimes in the absence of dam effects. We used stream thermal thresholds for mean July temperatures delineating transitions between coldwater, transitional coolwater, and warmwater fish communities derived by Beauchene et al. (2014) to classify expected stream and river thermal regimes across New England. Within the model domain and based on 2006 land-use and air temperatures, the model predicts that 21.8% of stream + river kilometers would support coldwater fish communities (mean July water temperatures 22.3 degrees C mean July temperatures). Application of the model allows us to assess potential condition given full riparian zone restoration as well as potential loss of cold or coolwater habitat given loss of riparian shading. Given restoration of all ripa

Simultaneous Micrometeorological Flux Observations of CO2 and CH4 at a Sub-Arctic Black-Spruce Forest in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harazono, Y.; Ueyama, M.; Miyata, A.

2005-12-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes were measured at a black spruce forest over discontinuous permafrost in central Alaska since November 2002. CO2 flux was measured by open-path eddy correlation system and CH4 flux was measured by gradient method continuously. CO2 uptake was observed during daytime after DOY 60 when the forest floor was snow-covered with low temperature (<-10 °C). At the moment, CH4 flux was negative (uptake) during daytime and nearing to zero at night, which varied with surface temperature. During snow melt and following permafrost thawing periods (around DOY 110-140, 2003), nocturnal CO2 efflux was larger than daytime uptake resulted in a daily CO2 source, and CH4 flux became small positive in daytime and nearing zero at night resulted in a weak daily CH4 source. After DOY 140 in 2003, CO2 flux was strong uptake and the maximum level was 1.0 g m-2 h-1 in late July around 10:30h when 3 hr earlier than solar noon. During mid summer (DOY 180-230, 2003), daytime CH4 uptake was weak and was near zero at night resulted in a weak daily CH4 sink. 2004 was low snow fall and draught summer, the seasonal patterns of CO2 and CH4 fluxes shifted more than 3-weeks earlier than that in 2003, resulted in high CO2 and CH4 emissions in early summer. Daily amount of CH4 flux in mid summer 2003 and 2004 were 1.2 and 0.5 mg CH4 m-2 d-1, respectively. Sum of observed NEE and CO2 storage term within the canopy, NEP were -482 and -366.6 gCO2 m-2 y-1 in 2003 and 2004. However, application of u* filtering correction made NEP reduce to the ranges between -434.8 and -315.9 gCO2 m-2 y-1 (under u<0.05 ms-1 and u<0.2 ms-1) in 2003 and to -282.5 and -215.9 gCO2 m-2 y-1 in 2004. The low NEP in 2004 was caused by high temperature and low precipitation during growing season. CH4 emission was also higher in 2004. CO2 and CH4 exchanges at sub-arctic forest were quite sensitive to draught and summer temperature.

Microhabitats and canopy cover moderate high summer temperatures in a fragmented Mediterranean landscape.

PubMed

Keppel, Gunnar; Anderson, Sharolyn; Williams, Craig; Kleindorfer, Sonia; O'Connell, Christopher

2017-01-01

Extreme heat events will become more frequent under anthropogenic climate change, especially in Mediterranean ecosystems. Microhabitats can considerably moderate (buffer) the effects of extreme weather events and hence facilitate the persistence of some components of the biodiversity. We investigate the microclimatic moderation provided by two important microhabitats (cavities formed by the leaves of the grass-tree Xanthorrhoea semiplana F.Muell., Xanthorrhoeaceae; and inside the leaf-litter) during the summer of 2015/16 on the Fleurieu Peninsula of South Australia. We placed microsensors inside and outside these microhabitats, as well as above the ground below the forest canopy. Grass-tree and leaf-litter microhabitats significantly buffered against high temperatures and low relative humidity, compared to ground-below-canopy sensors. There was no significant difference between grass-tree and leaf-litter temperatures: in both microhabitats, daily temperature variation was reduced, day temperatures were 1-5°C cooler, night temperatures were 0.5-3°C warmer, and maximum temperatures were up to 14.4°C lower, compared to ground-below-canopy sensors. Grass-tree and leaf-litter microhabitats moderated heat increase at an average rate of 0.24°C temperature per 1°C increase of ambient temperature in the ground-below-canopy microhabitat. The average daily variation in temperature was determined by the type (grass-tree and leaf-litter versus ground-below-canopy) of microhabitat (explaining 67%), the amount of canopy cover and the area of the vegetation fragment (together explaining almost 10% of the variation). Greater canopy cover increased the amount of microclimatic moderation provided, especially in the leaf-litter. Our study highlights the importance of microhabitats in moderating macroclimatic conditions. However, this moderating effect is currently not considered in species distribution modelling under anthropogenic climate change nor in the management of vegetation. This shortcoming will have to be addressed to obtain realistic forecasts of future species distributions and to achieve effective management of biodiversity.

Temperature sequence of eggs from oviposition through distribution: processing--part 2.

PubMed

Koelkebeck, K W; Patterson, P H; Anderson, K E; Darre, M J; Carey, J B; Ahn, D U; Ernst, R A; Kuney, D R; Jones, D

2008-06-01

The Egg Safety Action Plan released in 1999 raised questions concerning egg temperature used in the risk assessment model. Therefore, a national study was initiated to determine the internal and external temperature sequence of eggs from oviposition through distribution. Researchers gathered data from commercial egg production, shell egg processing, and distribution facilities. The experimental design was a mixed model with 2 random effects for season and geographic region and a fixed effect for operation type (inline or offline). For this report, internal and external egg temperature data were recorded at specific points during shell egg processing in the winter and summer months. In addition, internal egg temperatures were recorded in pre- and postshell egg processing cooler areas. There was a significant season x geographic region interaction (P < 0.05) for both surface and internal temperatures. Egg temperatures were lower in the winter vs. summer, but eggs gained in temperature from the accumulator to the postshell egg processing cooler. During shell egg processing, summer egg surface and internal temperatures were greater (P < 0.05) than during the winter. When examining the effect of shell egg processing time and conditions, it was found that 2.4 and 3.8 degrees C were added to egg surface temperatures, and 3.3 and 6.0 degrees C were added to internal temperatures in the summer and winter, respectively. Internal egg temperatures were higher (P < 0.05) in the preshell egg processing cooler area during the summer vs. winter, and internal egg temperatures were higher (P < 0.05) in the summer when eggs were (3/4) cool (temperature change required to meet USDA-Agricultural Marketing Service storage regulation of 7.2 degrees C) in the postshell egg processing area. However, the cooling rate was not different (P > 0.05) for eggs in the postshell egg processing cooler area in the summer vs. winter. Therefore, these data suggest that season of year and geographic location can affect the temperature of eggs during shell egg processing and should be a component in future assessments of egg safety.

Contribution of urbanization to the increase of extreme heat events in an urban agglomeration in east China: Urbanization and the Increase of EHEs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Xuchao; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Naizhuo

The urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is emblematic of China’s rapid urbanization during the past decades. Based on homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature data, the contributions of urbanization to trends of extreme temperature indices (ETIs) during summer in YRD are evaluated. Dynamically classifying the observational stations into urban and rural areas, this study presents unexplored changes in temperature extremes during the past four decades in the YRD region and quantifies the amplification of the positive trends in ETIs by the urban heat island effect. Overall, urbanization contributes to more than one third in the increase of intensitymore » of extreme heat events in the region, which is comparable to the contribution of greenhouse gases. Compared to rural stations, more notable shifts to the right in the probability distribution of temperature and ETIs were observed in urban stations.« less

Observational analysis of air-sea fluxes and sea water temperature offshore South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, X.; Huang, J.; Gao, Z.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

This paper investigates the air-sea fluxes (momentum flux, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux) from eddy covariance method based on data collected at an offshore observation tower in the South China Sea from January 2009 to December 2016 and sea water temperature (SWT) on six different levels based on data collected from November 2011 to June 2013. The depth of water at the tower over the sea averages about 15 m. This study presents the in-situ measurements of continuous air-sea fluxes and SWT at different depths. Seasonal and diurnal variations in air-sea fluxes and SWT on different depths are examined. Results show that air-sea fluxes and all SWT changed seasonally; sea-land breeze circulation appears all the year round. Unlike winters where SWT on different depths are fairly consistent, the difference between sea surface temperature (SST) and sea temperature at 10 m water depth fluctuates dramatically and the maximum value reaches 7 °C during summer.

Upper atmosphere wind and temperature structure at sonmiani derived from the rocket grenade experiments conducted during 1965 - 1967

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rahmatullah, M.

1972-01-01

The grenade-TMA firing conducted in 1965-1967 bring out the following important features regarding the stratospheric circulation in the subtropics: (1) The temperature pattern during the month of March/April at Sonmiani is characterized by higher temperature than the corresponding CIRA 1965 value. (2) Double maxima in temperature has often been observed during spring. (3) In March the zonal wind is predominantly westerly reaching a maximum value of about 45 m/s at 55 km. (4) The meridional component exhibits oscillatory character between 45 and 60 kms. (5) The change from winter westerlies to summer easterlies first occurred around 50 km during April and gradually affected higher levels as the month progressed. (6) The height of the principal maxima at Sonmiani is located at 105 + or - 5 km. In autumn the wind at the principal maxima is below 100 m/s and is directed to NW, in spring it is of the order of 118 m/s but directed to E or NE.

Climate change forecasting in a mountainous data scarce watershed using CMIP5 models under representative concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghakhani Afshar, A.; Hasanzadeh, Y.; Besalatpour, A. A.; Pourreza-Bilondi, M.

2017-07-01

Hydrology cycle of river basins and available water resources in arid and semi-arid regions are highly affected by climate changes. In recent years, the increment of temperature due to excessive increased emission of greenhouse gases has led to an abnormality in the climate system of the earth. The main objective of this study is to survey the future climate changes in one of the biggest mountainous watersheds in northeast of Iran (i.e., Kashafrood). In this research, by considering the precipitation and temperature as two important climatic parameters in watersheds, 14 models evolved in the general circulation models (GCMs) of the newest generation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to forecast the future climate changes in the study area. For the historical period of 1992-2005, four evaluation criteria including Nash-Sutcliffe (NS), percent of bias (PBIAS), coefficient of determination ( R 2) and the ratio of the root-mean-square-error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) were used to compare the simulated observed data for assessing goodness-of-fit of the models. In the primary results, four climate models namely GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC-ESM, and NorESM1-M were selected among the abovementioned 14 models due to their more prediction accuracies to the investigated evaluation criteria. Thereafter, climate changes of the future periods (near-century, 2006-2037; mid-century, 2037-2070; and late-century, 2070-2100) were investigated and compared by four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of new emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In order to assess the trend of annual and seasonal changes of climatic components, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test (MK) was also employed. The results of Mann-Kendall test revealed that the precipitation has significant variable trends of both positive and negative alterations. Furthermore, the mean, maximum, and minimum temperature values had significant positive trends at 90, 99, and 99.9 % confidence level. On the other hand, in all parts of the Kashafrood Watershed (KW), the average temperature of watershed will be increased up to 0.56-3.3 °C and the mean precipitation will be decreased up to 10.7 % by the end of the twenty-first century comparing to the historical baselines. Also, in seasonal scale, the maximum and minimum precipitations will occur in spring and summer, respectively, and the mean temperature is higher than the historical baseline in all seasons. The maximum and minimum values of the mean temperature will occur in summer and winter, respectively, and the amount of seasonal precipitation in these seasons will be reduced.

[Effects of different rootstocks on the weak light tolerance ability of summer black grape based on 4 photo-response models].

PubMed

Han, Xiao; Wang, Hai Bo; Wang, Xiao di; Shi, Xiang Bin; Wang, Bao Liang; Zheng, Xiao Cui; Wang, Zhi Qiang; Liu, Feng Zhi

2017-10-01

The photo response curves of 11 rootstock-scion combinations including summer black/Beta, summer black/1103P, summer black/101-14, summer black/3309C, summer black/140Ru, summer black/5C, summer black/5BB, summer black/420A, summer black/SO4, summer black/Kangzhen No.1, summer black/Huapu No.1 were fitted by rectangular hyperbola mo-del, non-rectangular hyperbola model, modified rectangular hyperbola model and exponential model respectively, and the differences of imitative effects were analyzed by determination coefficiency, light compensation point, light saturation point, initial quantum efficiency, maximum photosynthetic rate and dark respiration rate. The result showed that the fit coefficients of all four models were above 0.98, and there was no obvious difference on the fitted values of light compensation point among the four models. The modified rectangular hyperbola model fitted best on light saturation point, apparent quantum yield, maximum photosynthetic rate and dark respiration rate, and had the minimum AIC value based on the akaike information criterion, therefore, the modified rectangular hyperbola model was the best one. The clustering analysis indicated that summer black/SO4 and summer black/420A combinations had low light compensation point, high apparent quantum yield and low dark respiration rate among 11 rootstock-scion combinations, suggesting that these two combinations could use weak light more efficiently due to their less respiratory consumption and higher weak light tolerance. The Topsis comparison method ranked summer black/SO4 and summer black/420A combinations as No. 1 and No. 2 respectively in weak light tolerance ability, which was consistent with cluster analysis. Consequently, summer black has the highest weak light tolerance in case grafted on 420A or SO4, which could be the most suitable rootstock-scion combinations for protected cultivation.

Investigation of temperature and its indices under climate change scenarios over different regions of Rajasthan state in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Aditya; Sharma, Devesh; Panda, S. K.; Dubey, Swatantra Kumar; Pradhan, Rajani K.

2018-02-01

The ongoing increases in concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gas will most likely affect global climate for the rest of this century. Global warming brings a huge provocation to society and human beings. Single extreme events and increased climate variability have a greater impact than long-term changes in the mean of climatic variables. This study analyzed the temperature projections for Rajasthan state, India using data obtain from two General Circulation Models (GFCM21 and HadCM3) for three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Range of Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2, and B1. A 30 years of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature for the period 1976-2005 has been obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and by using LARS-WG5 to generate the long-term weather series for three different periods i.e. 2011-2040 (2025s), 2041-2070 (2055s), and 2071-2100 (2085s). Further to determine the changes in extreme temperature events, the data for the baseline period and the future periods was represented by eight extreme temperature indices. Results illustrate that an increase in minimum and the maximum temperature are observed in all the three future periods. The average mean temperature for base period and three future periods over four regions of Rajasthan was observed highest in region 3 which shows an incessantly increased in mean temperature about 2.6 °C i.e. north-east and north-west part of Rajasthan. Two GCMs depicts that the incessant temperatures may be increase in the future and future maximum temperature in all the seasons varies from 2.43 °C to 4.27 °C in the direction from south to north of Rajasthan during 2071-2100. While for minimum temperature, the range of temperature changes varies from 0.23 °C to 1.42 °C from south-east to north-west of Rajasthan during 2011-2040. In the temperature indices, the number of tropical nights (TR20), warmest day (TX90p), warmest night (TN90p) and summer days (SU25) is expected to increase during all three future periods. The maximum changes was found in region 2 (39.4 days) and region 1 (38.8 days) during the 2071-2100 periods, followed by 2041-2070 and 2011-2040. In all the four regions, the annual occurrence of Cold Spells Duration Indicator (CSDI) decreased and Warm Spells Duration Indicator (WSDI) increased for all three future periods.

Prevalence rates of health and welfare conditions in broiler chickens change with weather in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Part, Chérie E; Edwards, Phil; Hajat, Shakoor; Collins, Lisa M

2016-09-01

Climate change impact assessment and adaptation research in agriculture has focused primarily on crop production, with less known about the potential impacts on livestock. We investigated how the prevalence of health and welfare conditions in broiler (meat) chickens changes with weather (temperature, rainfall, air frost) in a temperate climate. Cases of 16 conditions were recorded at approved slaughterhouses in Great Britain. National prevalence rates and distribution mapping were based on data from more than 2.4 billion individuals, collected between January 2011 and December 2013. Analysis of temporal distribution and associations with national weather were based on monthly data from more than 6.8 billion individuals, collected between January 2003 and December 2013. Ascites, bruising/fractures, hepatitis and abnormal colour/fever were most common, at annual average rates of 29.95, 28.00, 23.76 and 22.29 per 10 000, respectively. Ascites and abnormal colour/fever demonstrated clear annual cycles, with higher rates in winter than in summer. Ascites prevalence correlated strongly with maximum temperature at 0 and -1 month lags. Abnormal colour/fever correlated strongly with temperature at 0 lag. Maximum temperatures of approximately 8°C and approximately 19°C marked the turning points of curve in a U-shaped relationship with mortality during transportation and lairage. Future climate change research on broilers should focus on preslaughter mortality.

Prevalence rates of health and welfare conditions in broiler chickens change with weather in a temperate climate

PubMed Central

Edwards, Phil; Hajat, Shakoor

2016-01-01

Climate change impact assessment and adaptation research in agriculture has focused primarily on crop production, with less known about the potential impacts on livestock. We investigated how the prevalence of health and welfare conditions in broiler (meat) chickens changes with weather (temperature, rainfall, air frost) in a temperate climate. Cases of 16 conditions were recorded at approved slaughterhouses in Great Britain. National prevalence rates and distribution mapping were based on data from more than 2.4 billion individuals, collected between January 2011 and December 2013. Analysis of temporal distribution and associations with national weather were based on monthly data from more than 6.8 billion individuals, collected between January 2003 and December 2013. Ascites, bruising/fractures, hepatitis and abnormal colour/fever were most common, at annual average rates of 29.95, 28.00, 23.76 and 22.29 per 10 000, respectively. Ascites and abnormal colour/fever demonstrated clear annual cycles, with higher rates in winter than in summer. Ascites prevalence correlated strongly with maximum temperature at 0 and −1 month lags. Abnormal colour/fever correlated strongly with temperature at 0 lag. Maximum temperatures of approximately 8°C and approximately 19°C marked the turning points of curve in a U-shaped relationship with mortality during transportation and lairage. Future climate change research on broilers should focus on preslaughter mortality. PMID:27703686

[Effects of different patterns surface mulching on soil properties and fruit trees growth and yield in an apple orchard].

PubMed

Zhang, Yi; Xie, Yong-Sheng; Hao, Ming-De; She, Xiao-Yan

2010-02-01

Taking a nine-year-old Fuji apple orchard in Loess Plateau as test object, this paper studied the effects of different patterns surface mulching (clean tillage, grass cover, plastic film mulch, straw mulch, and gravel mulch) on the soil properties and fruit trees growth and yield in this orchard. Grass cover induced the lowest differentiation of soil moisture profile, while gravel mulch induced the highest one. In treatment gravel mulch, the soil moisture content in apple trees root zone was the highest, which meant that there was more water available to apple trees. Surface mulching had significant effects on soil temperature, and generally resulted in a decrease in the maximum soil temperature. The exception was treatment plastic film mulch, in which, the soil temperature in summer exceeded the maximum allowable temperature for continuous root growth and physiological function. With the exception of treatment plastic film mulch, surface mulching increased the soil CO2 flux, which was the highest in treatment grass cover. Surface mulching also affected the proportion of various branch types and fruit yield. The proportion of medium-sized branches and fruit yield were the highest in treatment gravel mulch, while the fruit yield was the lowest in treatment grass cover. Factor analysis indicated that among the test surface mulching patterns, gravel mulch was most suitable for the apple orchards in gully region of Loess Plateau.

Malaria transmission in two localities in north-western Argentina

PubMed Central

Dantur Juri, María J; Zaidenberg, Mario; Claps, Guillermo L; Santana, Mirta; Almirón, Walter R

2009-01-01

Background Malaria is one of the most important tropical diseases that affects people globally. The influence of environmental conditions in the patterns of temporal distribution of malaria vectors and the disease has been studied in different countries. In the present study, ecological aspects of the malaria vector Anopheles (Anopheles) pseudopunctipennis and their relationship with climatic variables, as well as the seasonality of malaria cases, were studied in two localities, El Oculto and Aguas Blancas, in north-western Argentina. Methods The fluctuation of An. pseudopunctipennis and the malaria cases distribution was analysed with Random Effect Poisson Regression. This analysis takes into account the effect of each climatic variable on the abundance of both vector and malaria cases, giving as results predicted values named Incidence Rate Radio. Results The number of specimens collected in El Oculto and Aguas Blancas was 4224 (88.07%) and 572 (11.93%), respectively. In El Oculto no marked seasonality was found, different from Aguas Blancas, where high abundance was detected at the end of spring and the beginning of summer. The maximum mean temperature affected the An. pseudopunctipennis fluctuation in El Oculto and Aguas Blancas. When considering the relationship between the number of malaria cases and the climatic variables in El Oculto, maximum mean temperature and accumulated rainfall were significant, in contrast with Aguas Blancas, where mean temperature and humidity showed a closer relationship to the fluctuation in the disease. Conclusion The temporal distribution patterns of An. pseudopunctipennis vary in both localities, but spring appears as the season with better conditions for mosquito development. Maximum mean temperature was the most important variable in both localities. Malaria cases were influenced by the maximum mean temperature in El Oculto, while the mean temperature and humidity were significant in Aguas Blancas. In Aguas Blancas peaks of mosquito abundance and three months later, peaks of malaria cases were observed. The study reported here will help to increase knowledge about not only vectors and malaria seasonality but also their relationships with the climatic variables that influence their appearances and abundances. PMID:19152707

Historically hottest summers projected to be the norm for more than half of the world’s population within 20 years

DOE PAGES

Mueller, Brigitte; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis W.

2016-04-07

We project that within the next two decades, half of the world's population will regularly (every second summer on average) experience regional summer mean temperatures that exceed those of the historically hottest summer, even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions pathway. This frequency threshold for hot temperatures over land, which have adverse effects on human health, society and economy, might be broached in little more than a decade under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway. These hot summer frequency projections are based on adjusted RCP4.5 and 8.5 temperature projections, where the adjustments are performed with scaling factors determined by regularized optimal fingerprinting analyzesmore » that compare historical model simulations with observations over the period 1950-2012. A temperature reconstruction technique is then used to simulate a multitude of possible past and future temperature evolutions, from which the probability of a hot summer is determined for each region, with a hot summer being defined as the historically warmest summer on record in that region. Probabilities with and without external forcing show that hot summers are now about ten times more likely (fraction of attributable risk 0.9) in many regions of the world than they would have been in the absence of past greenhouse gas increases. In conclusion, the adjusted future projections suggest that the Mediterranean, Sahara, large parts of Asia and the Western US and Canada will be among the first regions for which hot summers will become the norm (i.e. occur on average every other year), and that this will occur within the next 1-2 decades.« less

Historically hottest summers projected to be the norm for more than half of the world’s population within 20 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Brigitte; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis W.

2016-04-01

We project that within the next two decades, half of the world’s population will regularly (every second summer on average) experience regional summer mean temperatures that exceed those of the historically hottest summer, even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions pathway. This frequency threshold for hot temperatures over land, which have adverse effects on human health, society and economy, might be broached in little more than a decade under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway. These hot summer frequency projections are based on adjusted RCP4.5 and 8.5 temperature projections, where the adjustments are performed with scaling factors determined by regularized optimal fingerprinting analyzes that compare historical model simulations with observations over the period 1950-2012. A temperature reconstruction technique is then used to simulate a multitude of possible past and future temperature evolutions, from which the probability of a hot summer is determined for each region, with a hot summer being defined as the historically warmest summer on record in that region. Probabilities with and without external forcing show that hot summers are now about ten times more likely (fraction of attributable risk 0.9) in many regions of the world than they would have been in the absence of past greenhouse gas increases. The adjusted future projections suggest that the Mediterranean, Sahara, large parts of Asia and the Western US and Canada will be among the first regions for which hot summers will become the norm (i.e. occur on average every other year), and that this will occur within the next 1-2 decades.

Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Reanalysis and In-situ Surface Air Temperature over Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesfaye, T.

2017-12-01

Tewodros Woldemariam Tesfaye*1, C.T. Dhanya 2,and A.K. Gosain3 1Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 2Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 3 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India, *e-mail: tewodros2002@gmail.com Abstract: Water resources management and modelling studies are often constrained by the scarcity of observed data, especially of the two major variables i.e., precipitation and temperature. Modellers, hence, rely on reanalysis datasets as a substitute; though its performance heavily vary depending on the data availability and regional characteristics. The present study aims at examining the ability of frequently used reanalysis datasets in capturing the spatiotemporal characteristics of maximum and minimum surface temperatures over Ethiopia and to highlight the biases, if any, in these over Ethiopian region. We considered ERA-Interim, NCEP 2, MERRA and CFSR reanalysis datasets and compared these with temperature observations from 15 synoptic stations spread over Ethiopia. In addition to the long term averages and annual cycle, a critical comparison of various extreme indices such as diurnal temperature range, warm days, warm nights, cool days, cool nights, summer days and tropical nights are also undertaken. Our results indicate that, the performance of CFSR followed by NCEP 2 is better in capturing majority of the aspects. ERA-Interim suffers a huge additive bias in the simulation of various aspects of minimum temperature in all the stations considered; while its performance is better for maximum temperature. The inferior performance of ERA-Interim is noted to be only because of the difficulty in simulating minimum temperature. Key words: ERA Interim; NCEP Reanalysis; MERRA; CFSR; Diurnal temperature range; reanalysis performance.

A new perspective on the 1930s mega-heat waves across central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowan, Tim; Hegerl, Gabi

2016-04-01

The unprecedented hot and dry conditions that plagued contiguous United States during the 1930s caused widespread devastation for many local communities and severely dented the emerging economy. The heat extremes experienced during the aptly named Dust Bowl decade were not isolated incidences, but part of a tendency towards warm summers over the central United States in the early 1930s, and peaked in the boreal summer 1936. Using high-quality daily maximum and minimum temperature observations from more than 880 Global Historical Climate Network stations across the United States and southern Canada, we assess the record breaking heat waves in the 1930s Dust Bowl decade. A comparison is made to more recent heat waves that have occurred during the latter half of the 20th century (i.e., in a warming world), both averaged over selected years and across decades. We further test the ability of coupled climate models to simulate mega-heat waves (i.e. most extreme events) across the United States in a pre-industrial climate without the impact of any long-term anthropogenic warming. Well-established heat wave metrics based on the temperature percentile threshold exceedances over three or more consecutive days are used to describe variations in the frequency, duration, amplitude and timing of the events. Casual factors such as drought severity/soil moisture deficits in the lead up to the heat waves (interannual), as well as the concurrent synoptic conditions (interdiurnal) and variability in Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures (decadal) are also investigated. Results suggest that while each heat wave summer in the 1930s exhibited quite unique characteristics in terms of their timing, duration, amplitude, and regional clustering, a common factor in the Dust Bowl decade was the high number of consecutive dry seasons, as measured by drought indicators such as the Palmer Drought Severity and Standardised Precipitation indices, that preceded the mega-heat waves. This suggests that land surface feedbacks, resulting from anomalously dry soil prior to summer, amplified the heat extremes triggering the mega-heat waves. Using the model experiments, we assess whether the combined warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation provide a necessary condition to trigger decade-long droughts that spawn mega-heat waves to cluster across consecutive summers.

Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pielke, R.A.; Stohlgren, T.; Schell, L.; Parton, W.; Doesken, N.; Redmond, K.; Moeny, J.; McKee, T.; Kittel, T.G.F.

2002-01-01

We evaluated long-term trends in average maximum and minimum temperatures, threshold temperatures, and growing season in eastern Colorado, USA, to explore the potential shortcomings of many climate-change studies that either: (1) generalize regional patterns from single stations, single seasons, or a few parameters over short duration from averaging dissimilar stations: or (2) generalize an average regional pattern from coarse-scale general circulation models. Based on 11 weather stations, some trends were weakly regionally consistent with previous studies of night-time temperature warming. Long-term (80 + years) mean minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.2) in about half the stations in winter, spring, and autumn and six stations had significant decreases in the number of days per year with temperatures ??? - 17.8 ??C (???0??F). However, spatial and temporal variation in the direction of change was enormous for all the other weather parameters tested, and, in the majority of tests, few stations showed significant trends (even at P < 0.2). In summer, four stations had significant increases and three stations had significant decreases in minimum temperatures, producing a strongly mixed regional signal. Trends in maximum temperature varied seasonally and geographically, as did trends in threshold temperature days ???32.2??C (???90??F) or days ???37.8??C (???100??F). There was evidence of a subregional cooling in autumn's maximum temperatures, with five stations showing significant decreasing trends. There were many geographic anomalies where neighbouring weather stations differed greatly in the magnitude of change or where they had significant and opposite trends. We conclude that sub-regional spatial and seasonal variation cannot be ignored when evaluating the direction and magnitude of climate change. It is unlikely that one or a few weather stations are representative of regional climate trends, and equally unlikely that regionally projected climate change from coarse-scale general circulation models will accurately portray trends at sub-regional scales. However, the assessment of a group of stations for consistent more qualitative trends (such as the number of days less than - 17.8??C, such as we found) provides a reasonably robust procedure to evaluate climate trends and variability. Copyright ?? 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Contrasting early Holocene temperature variations between monsoonal East Asia and westerly dominated Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jiaju; An, Chen-Bang; Huang, Yongsong; Morrill, Carrie; Chen, Fa-Hu

2017-12-01

Numerous studies have demonstrated that there are major differences in the timing of maximum Holocene precipitation between the monsoonal East Asia and westerly dominated Central Asia, but it is unclear if the moisture differences are also associated with corresponding temperature contrasts. Here we present the first alkenone-based paleotemperature reconstructions for the past 21 kyr from Lake Balikun, central Asia. We show, unlike the initiation of Holocene warm conditions at ∼11 kyr BP in the monsoon regions, the arid central Asia remained in a glacial-like cold condition prior to 8 kyr BP and experienced abrupt warming of ∼9 °C after the collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet. Comparison with pollen and other geochemical data indicates the abrupt warming is closely associated with major increase in the moisture supply to the region. Together, our multiproxy data indicate ∼2 thousand years delay of temperature and moisture optimum relative to local summer insolation maximum, suggesting major influence of the Laurentide ice sheet and other high latitude ice sheet forcings on the regional atmospheric circulation. In addition, our data reveal a temperature drop by ∼4 °C around 4 kyr BP lasting multiple centuries, coinciding with severe increases in aridity previously reported based on multiproxy data. In contrast, model simulations display a much less pronounced delay in the initiation of Holocene warm conditions, raising unresolved questions about the relative importance of local radiative forcing and high-latitude ice on temperature in this region.

Soil respiration at the Amargosa Desert Research site: A section in U.S. Geological Survey Toxic Substances Hydrology Program: Proceedings of the technical meeting, Charleston, South Carolina, March 8-12, 1999: Volume 3 (Part C) (WRI 99-4018C)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riggs, Alan C.; Striegl, Robert G.; Maestas, Florentino B.; Morganwalp, David W.; Buxton, Herbert T.

1999-01-01

Automated opaque flux-chamber measurements of soil carbon dioxide (CO2) flux (soil respiration) into the atmosphere at the Amargosa Desert Research Site show seasonal and diel cycles of soil respiration that are closely linked with soil temperature and soil moisture. During 1998, soil respiration increased with soil warming through spring, reaching a maximum rate (not counting anomalously high values scattered through the record) of about 0.055 moles CO2 m-2 day-1 around Julian Day 120. Respiration rates then declined along with volumetric soil moisture content, tending to stay at or below about 0.02 moles CO2 per square meter per day (m-2 day -1) for the rest of the year, except after summer rainfalls when respiration sharply increased for short periods. The diel respiration pattern during dry spells is marked by a sharp rise in CO2 flux coincident with steeply rising soil temperatures in the morning, then dropping back to low levels about the time of maximum soil temperature. The reason for this pattern in unclear.

Summer Temperature Extremes in the Northern Rockies: A Tree-Ring-Based Reconstruction (1670-2014) from the Bighorn Mountains, WY

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, A.; Alfaro-Sanchez, R.; Belmecheri, S.; Moore, D. J.; Trouet, V.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change has caused global temperatures to rise in recent decades. Temperatures at the regional scale are influenced by various factors including topography, atmospheric circulation, and seasonality that superimpose year-to-year variability on this global warming trend. Here, we develop a tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction for the northern Rockies in order to investigate the drivers of the year-to-year temperature variability in this region. For this purpose, we sampled 10 sites in the semi-arid Bighorn Mountains, WY and developed two tree-ring width chronologies for differing elevations. The high elevation Picea engelmannii chronology (>2,630m) is positively correlated with July temperature variability, whereas the low elevation (<2,580m) chronology - consisting of Pinus contorta, Pseudotsuga menziesii, and Pinus albicaulis - is sensitive to summer precipitation and negatively correlated with June and July temperatures. A reconstruction based on a combination of the two chronologies explains 30% of the variance in regional June and July temperatures over the instrumental period, covers the period 1670-2014, and is representative for the central United States and southern Canada region. Our reconstruction shows significantly lower summer temperatures in the year following the 16 largest tropical eruptions from 1670 to the present. The reconstruction further captures the high summer temperatures during the 1930s dust bowl era and shows a steep increase in variance in the late 20th century. Enhanced late 20th century variance has also been detected in climate and ecosystem dynamics in the Northeast Pacific, which suggests an impact of an amplified meridional flow on northern Rockies summer temperatures.

Influences on formation and dissipation of high arctic fogs during summer and autumn and their interaction with aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, E. Douglas; Bigg, E. Keith

1996-04-01

Radiosondes established that the air in the near surface mixed layer was very frequently near saturation during the International Arctic Ocean Expedition 1991 which must have been a large factor in the frequent occurrence of fogs. Fogs were divided into groups of summer, transition and winter types depending on whether the advecting air, the ice surface or sea surface respectively was warmest and the source of heat. The probability of summer and transition fogs increased at air temperatures near 0°C while winter fogs had a maximum probability of occurrence at air temperatures between -5 and -10°C. Advection from the open sea was the primary cause of the summer group, the probability of occurrence being high during the 1st day's travel and appreciable until the end of 3days. Transition fogs reached its maximum probability of formation on the 4th day of advection. Radiation heating and cooling of the ice both appeared to have influenced summer and transition fogs, while winter fogs were strongly favoured by the long wave radiation loss at clear sky conditions. Another cause of winter fogs was the heat and moisture source of open leads. Wind speed was also a factor in the probability of fog formation, summer and transition fogs being favoured by winds between 2 and 6ms1, while winter fogs were favoured by wind speeds of only 1ms1. Concentrations of fog drops were generally lower than those of the cloud condensation nuclei active at 0.1%, having a median of 3cm3. While a well-defined modal diameter of 20 25μm was found in all fogs, a second transient mode at about 100μm was also frequently observed. The observation of fog bows with supernumerary arcs pointed to the existence of fog droplets as large as 200 300µm in diameter at fog top. It is suggested that the large drops originated from droplets grown near the fog top and were brought to near the surface by an overturning of the fog layer. Shear induced wave motions and roll vortices were found to cause perturbations in the near-surface layer and appeared to influence fog formation and dissipation. The low observed droplet concentration in fogs limits their ability to modify aerosol number concentrations and size distributions, the persistent overlying stratus being a more likely site for effective interactions. It is suggested that variations in the fog formation described in this paper may be a useful indicator of circulation changes in the arctic consequent upon a global warming.

Mean state densities, temperatures and winds during the MAC/SINE and MAC/EPSILON campaigns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luebken, F.-J.; Von Zahn, U.; Manson, A.; Meek, C.; Hoppe, U.-P.; Schmidlin, F. J.

1990-01-01

Two field campaigns were conducted, primarily in northern Norway, in the summer and late autumn of 1987; these yielded a total of 41 in situ temperature profiles and 67 in situ wind profiles. Simultaneously, ground-based measurements were conducted of OH temperatures and sodium lidar temperatures for 85 and 104 hours, respectively. The summer campaign's mean temperature profile exhibited major deviations from the CIRA (1986) reference atmosphere; the differences between this model and the observations are less pronounced in the autumn. Both the summer and autumn mean wind profiles were in general agreement with the CIRA model.

Effects of seasonal ambient heat stress (spring vs. summer) on physiological and metabolic variables in hair sheep located in an arid region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macías-Cruz, U.; López-Baca, M. A.; Vicente, R.; Mejía, A.; Álvarez, F. D.; Correa-Calderón, A.; Meza-Herrera, C. A.; Mellado, M.; Guerra-Liera, J. E.; Avendaño-Reyes, L.

2016-08-01

Twenty Dorper × Pelibuey primiparous ewes were used to evaluate effects of seasonal ambient heat stress (i.e., spring vs. summer) on physiological and metabolic responses under production conditions in an arid region. Ten ewes experiencing summer heat stress (i.e., temperature = 34.8 ± 4.6 °C; THI = 81.6 ± 3.2 units) and 10 under spring thermoneutral conditions (temperature = 24.2 ± 5.4 °C; THI = 68.0 ± 4.8 units) were corralled together to measure rectal temperature, respiratory frequency, and skin temperatures at 0600, 1200, 1800, and 2400 h on four occasions over 40 days. Blood metabolite and electrolyte concentrations were also measured at 0600 and 1800 hours. Data were analyzed with a completely randomized design using repeated measurements in time. Rectal and skin temperatures, as well as respiratory frequency, were higher ( P < 0.01) in summer than spring at all measured days. Blood serum glucose, cholesterol, triglycerides, and chlorine concentrations were lower ( P < 0.01) in summer than spring at 0800 and 1800 hours. In contrast, summer heat stress increased ( P < 0.01) blood urea and potassium concentrations at 0800 and 1800 hours. Compared with spring thermoneutral conditions, summer heat stress affected the physiological and metabolic status of hair breed ewes in an arid region, which included blood metabolite and electrolyte adjustments to efficiently cope with summer heat stress.

Health symptoms in relation to temperature, humidity, and self-reported perceptions of climate in New York City residential environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Ashlinn; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-07-01

Little monitoring has been conducted of temperature and humidity inside homes despite the fact that these conditions may be relevant to health outcomes. Previous studies have observed associations between self-reported perceptions of the indoor environment and health. Here, we investigate associations between measured temperature and humidity, perceptions of indoor environmental conditions, and health symptoms in a sample of New York City apartments. We measured temperature and humidity in 40 New York City apartments during summer and winter seasons and collected survey data from the households' residents. Health outcomes of interest were (1) sleep quality, (2) symptoms of heat illness (summer season), and (3) symptoms of respiratory viral infection (winter season). Using mixed-effects logistic regression models, we investigated associations between the perceptions, symptoms, and measured conditions in each season. Perceptions of indoor temperature were significantly associated with measured temperature in both the summer and the winter, with a stronger association in the summer season. Sleep quality was inversely related to measured and perceived indoor temperature in the summer season only. Heat illness symptoms were associated with perceived, but not measured, temperature in the summer season. We did not find an association between any measured or perceived condition and cases of respiratory infection in the winter season. Although limited in size, the results of this study reveal that indoor temperature may impact sleep quality, and that thermal perceptions of the indoor environment may indicate vulnerability to heat illness. These are both important avenues for further investigation.

Peak-summer East Asian rainfall predictability and prediction part I: Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Wen; Wang, Bin; Yim, So-Young

2016-07-01

The interannual variation of East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall exhibits considerable differences between early summer [May-June (MJ)] and peak summer [July-August (JA)]. The present study focuses on peak summer. During JA, the mean ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical High (WPSH) divides EASM domain into two sub-domains: the tropical EA (5°N-26.5°N) and subtropical-extratropical EA (26.5°N-50°N). Since the major variability patterns in the two sub-domains and their origins are substantially different, the Part I of this study concentrates on the tropical EA or Southeast Asia (SEA). We apply the predictable mode analysis approach to explore the predictability and prediction of the SEA peak summer rainfall. Four principal modes of interannual rainfall variability during 1979-2013 are identified by EOF analysis: (1) the WPSH-dipole sea surface temperature (SST) feedback mode in the Northern Indo-western Pacific warm pool associated with the decay of eastern Pacific El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), (2) the central Pacific-ENSO mode, (3) the Maritime continent SST-Australian High coupled mode, which is sustained by a positive feedback between anomalous Australian high and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over Indian Ocean, and (4) the ENSO developing mode. Based on understanding of the sources of the predictability for each mode, a set of physics-based empirical (P-E) models is established for prediction of the first four leading principal components (PCs). All predictors are selected from either persistent atmospheric lower boundary anomalies from March to June or the tendency from spring to early summer. We show that these four modes can be predicted reasonably well by the P-E models, thus they are identified as the predictable modes. Using the predicted PCs and the corresponding observed spatial patterns, we have made a 35-year cross-validated hindcast, setting up a bench mark for dynamic models' predictions. The P-E hindcast prediction skill represented by domain-averaged temporal correlation coefficient is 0.44, which is twice higher than the skill of the current dynamical hindcast, suggesting that the dynamical models have large rooms to improve. The maximum potential attainable prediction skills for the peak summer SEA rainfall is also estimated and discussed by using the PMA. High predictability regions are found over several climatological rainfall centers like Indo-China peninsula, southern coast of China, southeastern SCS, and Philippine Sea.

Historical thermal regimes define limits to coral acclimatization.

PubMed

Howells, Emily J; Berkelmans, Ray; van Oppen, Madeleine J H; Willis, Bette L; Bay, Line K

2013-05-01

Knowledge of the degree to which corals undergo physiological acclimatization or genetic adaptation in response to changes in their thermal environment is crucial to the success of coral reef conservation strategies. The potential of corals to acclimatize to temperatures exceeding historical thermal regimes was investigated by reciprocal transplantation of Acropora millepora colonies between the warm central and cool southern regions of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) for a duration of 14 months. Colony fragments retained at native sites remained healthy, whereas transplanted fragments, although healthy over initial months when temperatures remained within native thermal regimes, subsequently bleached and suffered mortality during seasonal temperature extremes. Corals hosting Symbiodinium D transplanted to the southern GBR bleached in winter and the majority suffered whole (40%; n=20 colonies) or partial (50%) mortality at temperatures 1.1 degrees C below their 15-year native minimum. In contrast, corals hosting Symbiodinium C2 transplanted to the central GBR bleached in summer and suffered whole (50%; n=10 colonies) or partial (42%) mortality at temperatures 2.5 degrees C above their 15-year native maximum. During summer bleaching, the dominant Symbiodinium type changed from C2 to D within corals transplanted to the central GBR. Corals transplanted to the cooler, southern GBR grew 74-80% slower than corals at their native site, and only 50% of surviving colonies reproduced, at least partially because of cold water bleaching of transplants. Despite the absence of any visual signs of stress, corals transplanted to the warmer, central GBR grew 52-59% more slowly than corals at their native site before the summer bleaching (i.e., from autumn to spring). Allocation of energy to initial acclimatization or reproduction may explain this pattern, as the majority (65%) of transplants reproduced one month earlier than portions of the same colonies retained at the southern native site. All parameters investigated (bleaching, mortality, Symbiodinium type fidelity, reproductive timing) demonstrated strong interactions between genotype and environment, indicating that the acclimatization potential of A. millepora populations may be limited by adaptation of the holobiont to native thermal regimes.

The effect of radiation screens on Nordic time series of mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nordli, P. Ø.; Alexandersson, H.; Frich, P.; Førland, E. J.; Heino, R.; Jónsson, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Tveito, O. E.

1997-12-01

A short survey of the historical development of temperature radiation screens is given based upon research in the archives of the Nordic meteorological institutes. In the middle of the nineteenth century most thermometer stands were open shelters, free-standing or fastened to a window or wall. Most of these were soon replaced by wall or window screens, i.e. small wooden or metal cages. Large free-standing screens were also introduced in the nineteenth century, but it took to the 1980s before they had replaced the wall screens completely in all Nordic countries. During recent years, small cylindrical screens suitable for automatic weather stations have been introduced. At some stations they have replaced the ordinary free-standing screen as part of a gradual move towards automation.The first free-standing screens used in the Nordic countries were single louvred. They were later improved by double louvres. Compared with observations from ventilated thermometers the monthly mean temperatures in the single louvred screens were 0.2-0.4°C higher during May-August, whereas in the double louvred screens the temperatures were unbiased. Unless the series are adjusted, this improvement may lead to inhomogeneities in long climatic time series.The change from wall screen to free-standing screen also involved a relocation from the microclimatic influence of a house to a location free from obstacles. Tests to evaluate the effect of relocation by parallel measurements yielded variable results. However, the bulk of the tests showed no effect of the relocation in winter, whereas in summer the wall screen tended to be slightly warmer (0.0-0.3°C) than the double louvred screen. At two Norwegian sites situated on steep valley slopes, the wall screen was ca. 0.5°C colder in midwinter.The free-standing Swedish shelter, which was used at some stations up to 1960, seems to have been overheated in spring and summer (maximum overheating of about 0.4°C in early summer). The new screen for automatic sensors appears to be unbiased compared with the ordinary free-standing screen concerning monthly mean temperature.

Does the Arctic Amplification peak this decade?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Torge; Haine, Thomas W. N.

2017-04-01

Temperatures rise faster in the Arctic than on global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. While this is well established from observations and model simulations, projections of future climate (here: RCP8.5) with models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) also indicate that the Arctic Amplification has a maximum. We show this by means of an Arctic Amplification factor (AAF), which we define as the ratio of Arctic mean to global mean surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies. The SAT anomalies are referenced to the period 1960-1980 and smoothed by a 30-year running mean. For October, the multi-model ensemble-mean AAF reaches a maximum in 2017. The maximum moves however to later years as Arctic winter progresses: for the autumn mean SAT (September to November) the maximum AAF is found in 2028 and for winter (December to February) in 2060. Arctic Amplification is driven, amongst others, by the ice-albedo feedback (IAF) as part of the more general surface albedo feedback (involving clouds, snow cover, vegetation changes) and temperature effects (Planck and lapse-rate feedbacks). We note that sea ice retreat and the associated warming of the summer Arctic Ocean are not only an integral part of the IAF but are also involved in the other drivers. In the CMIP5 simulations, the timing of the AAF maximum coincides with the period of fastest ice retreat for the respective month. Presence of at least some sea ice is crucial for the IAF to be effective because of the contrast in surface albedo between ice and open water and the need to turn ocean warming into ice melt. Once large areas of the Arctic Ocean are ice-free, the IAF should be less effective. We thus hypothesize that the ice retreat significantly affects AAF variability and forces a decline of its magnitude after at least half of the Arctic Ocean is ice-free and the ice cover becomes basically seasonal.

Climate and land cover effects on the temperature of Puget Sound streams: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Impacts on Stream Temperature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cao, Qian; Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John

We apply an integrated hydrology-stream temperature modeling system, DHSVM-RBM, to examine the response of the temperature of the major streams draining to Puget Sound to land cover and climate change. We first show that the model construct is able to reconstruct observed historic streamflow and stream temperature variations at a range of time scales. We then explore the relative effect of projected future climate and land cover change, including riparian vegetation, on streamflow and stream temperature. Streamflow in summer is likely to decrease as the climate warms especially in snowmelt-dominated and transient river basins despite increased streamflow in their lowermore » reaches associated with urbanization. Changes in streamflow also result from changes in land cover, and changes in stream shading result from changes in riparian vegetation, both of which influence stream temperature. However, we find that the effect of riparian vegetation changes on stream temperature is much greater than land cover change over the entire basin especially during summer low flow periods. Furthermore, while future projected precipitation change will have relatively modest effects on stream temperature, projected future air temperature increases will result in substantial increases in stream temperature especially in summer. These summer stream temperature increases will be associated both with increasing air temperature, and projected decreases in low flows. We find that restoration of riparian vegetation could mitigate much of the projected summer stream temperature increases. We also explore the contribution of riverine thermal loadings to the heat balance of Puget Sound, and find that the riverine contribution is greatest in winter, when streams account for up to 1/8 of total thermal inputs (averaged from December through February), with larger effects in some sub-basins. We project that the riverine impact on thermal inputs to Puget Sound will become greater with both urbanization and climate change in winter but become smaller in summer due to climate change.« less

Indoor radon survey in Visegrad countries.

PubMed

Műllerová, Monika; Kozak, Krzysztof; Kovács, Tibor; Smetanová, Iveta; Csordás, Anita; Grzadziel, Dominik; Holý, Karol; Mazur, Jadwiga; Moravcsík, Attila; Neznal, Martin; Neznal, Matej

2016-04-01

The indoor radon measurements were carried out in 123 residential buildings and 33 schools in Visegrad countries (Slovakia, Hungary and Poland). In 13.2% of rooms radon concentration exceeded 300Bqm(-3), the reference value recommended in the Council Directive 2013/59/EURATOM. Indoor radon in houses shows the typical radon behavior, with a minimum in the summer and a maximum in the winter season, whereas in 32% of schools the maximum indoor radon was reached in the summer months. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variability of Water Chemistry in Tundra Lakes, Petuniabukta Coast, Central Spitsbergen, Svalbard

PubMed Central

Mazurek, Małgorzata; Paluszkiewicz, Renata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz; Zwoliński, Zbigniew

2012-01-01

Samples of water from small tundra lakes located on raised marine terraces on the eastern coast of Petuniabukta (Ebbadalen, Central Spitsbergen) were examined to assess the changes in water chemistry that had occurred during the summer seasons of 2001–2003 and 2006. The unique environmental conditions of the study region include the predominance of sedimentary carbonate and sulphate rocks, low precipitation values, and an active permafrost layer with a maximum thickness of 1.2 m. The average specific electric conductivity (EC) values for the three summer seasons in the four lakes ranged from 242 to 398 μS cm−1. The highest EC values were observed when the air temperature decreased and an ice cover formed (cryochemical effects). The ion composition was dominated by calcium (50.7 to 86.6%), bicarbonates (39.5 to 86.4%), and sulphate anions. The high concentrations of HCO3 −, SO4 2−, and Ca2+ ions were attributed to the composition of the bedrock, which mainly consists of gypsum and anhydrite. The average proportion of marine components in the total load found in the Ebbadalen tundra lake waters was estimated to be 8.1%. Precipitation supplies sulphates (as much as 69–81%) and chlorides (14–36%) of nonsea origin. The chief source of these compounds may be contamination from the town of Longyearbyen. Most ions originate in the crust, the active layer of permafrost, but some are atmospheric in origin and are either transported or generated in biochemical processes. The concentrations of most components tend to increase during the summer months, reaching a maximum during freezing and partially precipitating onto the bottom sediments. PMID:22654629

Changes in monsoon-driven upwelling in the South China Sea over glacial Terminations I and II: a multi-proxy record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadatzki, Henrik; Sarnthein, Michael; Andersen, Nils

2016-06-01

Upwelling intensity in the South China Sea has changed over glacial-interglacial cycles in response to orbital-scale changes in the East Asian Monsoon. Here, we evaluate new multi-proxy records of two sediment cores from the north-eastern South China Sea to uncover millennial-scale changes in winter monsoon-driven upwelling over glacial Terminations I and II. On the basis of U/Th-based speleothem chronology, we compare these changes with sediment records of summer monsoon-driven upwelling east of South Vietnam. Ocean upwelling is traced by reduced (UK'37-based) temperature and increased nutrient and productivity estimates of sea surface waters (δ13C on planktic foraminifera, accumulation rates of alkenones, chlorins, and total organic carbon). Accordingly, strong winter upwelling occurred north-west of Luzon (Philippines) during late Marine Isotope Stage 6.2, Heinrich (HS) and Greenland stadials (GS) HS-11, GS-26, GS-25, HS-1, and the Younger Dryas. During these stadials, summer upwelling decreased off South Vietnam and sea surface salinity reached a maximum suggesting a drop in monsoon rains, concurrent with speleothem records of aridity in China. In harmony with a stadial-to-interstadial see-saw pattern, winter upwelling off Luzon in turn was weak during interstadials, in particular those of glacial Terminations I and II, when summer upwelling culminated east of South Vietnam. Most likely, this upwelling terminated widespread deep-water stratification, coeval with the deglacial rise in atmospheric CO2. Yet, a synchronous maximum in precipitation fostered estuarine overturning circulation in the South China Sea, in particular as long as the Borneo Strait was closed when sea level dropped below -40 m.

Dynamics of Monsoon-Induced Biennial Variability in ENSO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, K.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The mechanism of the quasi-biennial tendency in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon coupled system is investigated using an intermediate coupled model. The monsoon wind forcing is prescribed as a function of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies based on the relationship between zonal wind anomalies over the western Pacific to sea level change in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The key mechanism of quasi-biennial tendency in El Nino evolution is found to be in the strong coupling of ENSO to monsoon wind forcing over the western Pacific. Strong boreal summer monsoon wind forcing, which lags the maximum SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific approximately 6 months, tends to generate Kelvin waves of the opposite sign to anomalies in the eastern Pacific and initiates the turnabout in the eastern Pacific. Boreal winter monsoon forcing, which has zero lag with maximum SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific, tends to damp the ENSO oscillations.

The effects of hot nights on mortality in Barcelona, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royé, D.

2017-12-01

Heat-related effects on mortality have been widely analyzed using maximum and minimum temperatures as exposure variables. Nevertheless, the main focus is usually on the former with the minimum temperature being limited in use as far as human health effects are concerned. Therefore, new thermal indices were used in this research to describe the duration of night hours with air temperatures higher than the 95% percentile of the minimum temperature (hot night hours) and intensity as the summation of these air temperatures in degrees (hot night degrees). An exposure-response relationship between mortality due to natural, respiratory, and cardiovascular causes and summer night temperatures was assessed using data from the Barcelona region between 2003 and 2013. The non-linear relationship between the exposure and response variables was modeled using a distributed lag non-linear model. The estimated associations for both exposure variables and mortality shows a relationship with high and medium values that persist significantly up to a lag of 1-2 days. In mortality due to natural causes, an increase of 1.1% per 10% (CI95% 0.6-1.5) for hot night hours and 5.8% per each 10° (CI95% 3.5-8.2%) for hot night degrees is observed. The effects of hot night hours reach their maximum with 100% and lead to an increase by 9.2% (CI95% 5.3-13.1%). The hourly description of night heat effects reduced to a single indicator in duration and intensity is a new approach and shows a different perspective and significant heat-related effects on human health.

Counter-Gradient Variation in Respiratory Performance of Coral Reef Fishes at Elevated Temperatures

PubMed Central

Gardiner, Naomi M.; Munday, Philip L.; Nilsson, Göran E.

2010-01-01

The response of species to global warming depends on how different populations are affected by increasing temperature throughout the species' geographic range. Local adaptation to thermal gradients could cause populations in different parts of the range to respond differently. In aquatic systems, keeping pace with increased oxygen demand is the key parameter affecting species' response to higher temperatures. Therefore, respiratory performance is expected to vary between populations at different latitudes because they experience different thermal environments. We tested for geographical variation in respiratory performance of tropical marine fishes by comparing thermal effects on resting and maximum rates of oxygen uptake for six species of coral reef fish at two locations on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. The two locations, Heron Island and Lizard Island, are separated by approximately 1200 km along a latitudinal gradient. We found strong counter-gradient variation in aerobic scope between locations in four species from two families (Pomacentridae and Apogonidae). High-latitude populations (Heron Island, southern GBR) performed significantly better than low-latitude populations (Lizard Island, northern GBR) at temperatures up to 5°C above average summer surface-water temperature. The other two species showed no difference in aerobic scope between locations. Latitudinal variation in aerobic scope was primarily driven by up to 80% higher maximum rates of oxygen uptake in the higher latitude populations. Our findings suggest that compensatory mechanisms in high-latitude populations enhance their performance at extreme temperatures, and consequently, that high-latitude populations of reef fishes will be less impacted by ocean warming than will low-latitude populations. PMID:20949020

A Tree-Ring Temperature Reconstruction from the Wrangell Mountains, Alaska (1593-1992): Evidence for Pronounced Regional Cooling During the Maunder Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DArrigo, R.; Davi, N.; Jacoby, G.; Wiles, G.

2002-05-01

The Maunder Minimum interval (from the mid-1600s-early 1700s) is believed to have been one of the coldest periods of the past thousand years in the Northern Hemisphere. A maximum latewood density temperature reconstruction for the Wrangell Mountains, southern Alaska (1593-1992) provides information on regional temperature change during the Maunder Minimum and other periods of severe cold over the past four centuries. The Wrangell density record, which reflects warm season (July-September) temperatures, shows an overall cooling over the Maunder Minimum period with annual values reaching as low as -1.8oC below the long-term mean. Ring widths, which can integrate annual as well as summer conditions, also show pronounced cooling at the Wrangell site during this time, as do Arctic and hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions based on tree rings and other proxy data. Maximum ages of glacial advance based on kill dates from overrun logs (which reflect cooler temperatures) coincide temporally with the cooling seen in the density and ring width records. In contrast, a recent modeling study indicates that during this period there was cold season (November-April) warming over much of Alaska, but cooling over other northern continental regions, as a result of decreased solar irradiance initiating low Arctic Oscillation index conditions. The influence of other forcings on Alaskan climate, the absence of ocean dynamical feedbacks in the model, and the different seasonality represented by the model and the trees may be some of the possible explanations for the different model and proxy results.

Modulation of the Seasonal Cycle of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Related to the Southern Annular Mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doddridge, Edward W.; Marshall, John

2017-10-01

Through analysis of remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration data, we investigate the impact of winds related to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on sea ice extent around Antarctica. We show that positive SAM anomalies in the austral summer are associated with anomalously cold SSTs that persist and lead to anomalous ice growth in the following autumn, while negative SAM anomalies precede warm SSTs and a reduction in sea ice extent during autumn. The largest effect occurs in April, when a unit change in the detrended summertime SAM is followed by a 1.8±0.6 ×105 km2 change in detrended sea ice extent. We find no evidence that sea ice extent anomalies related to the summertime SAM affect the wintertime sea ice extent maximum. Our analysis shows that the wind anomalies related to the negative SAM during the 2016/2017 austral summer contributed to the record minimum Antarctic sea ice extent observed in March 2017.

Distinct persistence barriers in two types of ENSO: PERSISTENCE BARRIERS OF TWO ENSO TYPES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ren, Hong-Li; Jin, Fei-Fei; Tian, Ben

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is usually subject to a persistence barrier (PB) in boreal spring. This study quantifies the PB and then reveals its distinct features in the two types of ENSO, the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) types. We suggest that the PB of ENSO can be measured by the maximum rate of autocorrelation decline of Niño sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) indices. Results show that the PB of ENSO generally occurs in boreal late spring to early summer in terms of Niño3.4 index, and the EP ENSO has the PB in late spring, while the CPmore » type has the PB in summer. By defining an index to quantify PB intensity of ENSO, we find that the CP ENSO type features a much weaker PB, compared to the EP type, and the PB intensity of equatorial SSTAs is larger over the EP than the western Pacific and the far EP.« less

A study of the influence of soil moisture on future precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fennessy, M. J.; Sud, Y. C.

1983-01-01

Forty years of precipitation and surface temperature data observed over 261 Local Climatic Data (LCD) stations in the Continental United States was utilized in a ground hydrology model to yield soil moisture time series at each station. A month-by-month soil moisture dataset was constructed for each year. The monthly precipitation was correlated with antecedent monthly precipitation, soil moisture and vapotranspiration separately. The maximum positive correlation is found to be in the drought prone western Great Plains region during the latter part of summer. There is also some negative correlation in coastal regions. The correlations between soil moisture and precipitation particularly in the latter part of summer, suggest that large scale droughts over extended periods may be partially maintained by the feedback influence of soil moisture on rainfall. In many other regions the lack of positive correlation shows that there is no simple answer such as higher land-surface evapotranspiration leads to more precipitation, and points out the complexity of the influence of soil moisture on the ensuring precipitation.

Distinct persistence barriers in two types of ENSO: PERSISTENCE BARRIERS OF TWO ENSO TYPES

DOE PAGES

Ren, Hong-Li; Jin, Fei-Fei; Tian, Ben; ...

2016-10-30

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is usually subject to a persistence barrier (PB) in boreal spring. This study quantifies the PB and then reveals its distinct features in the two types of ENSO, the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) types. We suggest that the PB of ENSO can be measured by the maximum rate of autocorrelation decline of Niño sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) indices. Results show that the PB of ENSO generally occurs in boreal late spring to early summer in terms of Niño3.4 index, and the EP ENSO has the PB in late spring, while the CPmore » type has the PB in summer. By defining an index to quantify PB intensity of ENSO, we find that the CP ENSO type features a much weaker PB, compared to the EP type, and the PB intensity of equatorial SSTAs is larger over the EP than the western Pacific and the far EP.« less

Dispersion of atmospheric air pollution in summer and winter season.

PubMed

Cichowicz, Robert; Wielgosiński, Grzegorz; Fetter, Wojciech

2017-11-04

Seasonal variation of air pollution is associated with variety of seasons and specificity of particular months which form the so-called summer and winter season also known as the "heating" season. The occurrence of higher values of air pollution in different months of a year is associated with the type of climate, and accordingly with different atmospheric conditions in particular months, changing state of weather on a given day, and anthropogenic activity. The appearance of these conditions results in different levels of air pollution characteristic for a given period. The study uses data collected during a seven-year period (2009-2015) in the automatic measuring station of immissions located in Eastern Wielkopolska. The analysis concerns the average and maximum values of air pollution (i.e., particulate matter PM10, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and ozone) from the perspective of their occurrence in particular seasons and months or in relation to meteorological actors such as temperature, humidity, and wind speed.

Recovery, statistical validation and analysis of a historical meteorological dataset collected at the Hanbury Botanical Gardens (Liguria, northwestern Italy) from 1900 to 1940

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vagge, Greta; Cutroneo, Laura; Gandolfi, Daniela; Ferretti, Gabriele; Scafidi, Davide; Capello, Marco

2018-05-01

A historical set of daily meteorological data collected at the Hanbury Botanical Gardens (Liguria, northwestern Italy) from 1900 to 1940 was recovered from five manually entered registers. They were digitised and statistically analysed to check their reliability and study their trends and variations. In particular, air temperature, precipitation and their extreme values were considered, together with wind direction, sea state, sky conditions and relative humidity. The results show a decreasing trend in mean annual temperature of approximately 0.2 °C/decade due to a decrease in maximum air temperature. Annual cumulative precipitation increased by 65.2 mm/decade over the study period. The data analysis showed a summer temperature decrease in 1912 and a severe drought in 1921. Moreover, the years with most days with extreme temperatures were associated to the negative phases of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). During the study period, SW winds were prevailing. Sky conditions followed seasonal trends, while slight sea was the most frequent sea state.

Thermal conditions in the bathroom in winter and summer, and physiological responses of the elderly during bathing.

PubMed

Kanda, K; Tsuchiya, J; Seto, M; Ohnaka, T; Tochihara, Y

1995-06-01

Thermal conditions in the bathroom and physiological responses were examined during winter and summer. The subjects were 22 male and 20 female elderly people, between 65 and 88 years old living in 25 houses in Gunma Prefecture, Japan. Heart rate, blood pressure, skin temperature and thermal sensation were measured during bathing. Changes in thermal sensation due to bathing were assessed in the living room and dressing room on a 9-point scale. Then they were asked about the purposes of bathing and the facilities of bathroom and dressing room. The results are summarized as follows: 1. The purpose of bathing in winter was to warm up for more than 80% of the subjects. In summer, all subjects felt refreshed by bathing. Eighty-five percent of the subjects took a bath every other day in both seasons. 2. Fifty-two percent of the bathrooms had no ventilating fans and 32% had no exclusive dressing rooms. 3. The average room temperature in the dressing rooms was 13-14 degrees C in winter. Thermal sensation was 'cool', 'slightly cold' or 'cold' for more than two-thirds of the subjects when they were partially nude, and there were no heaters in most dressing rooms. 4. The heart rate increased steadily, and reached a maximum value in a partially dressed condition in both seasons. 5. In winter, a marked increase of systolic blood pressure was observed in the partially nude condition. There was a significant difference between the before bathing condition and partially nude condition in winter.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Douglas-fir displays a range of growth responses to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) growth in the Pacific Northwest is affected by climatic, edaphic factors and Swiss needle cast (SNC) disease. We examine Douglas-fir growth responses to temperature, dewpoint deficit (DPD), soil moisture, and SNC using time series intervention analysis of intra-annual tree-ring width data collected at nine forest stands in western Oregon, USA. The effects of temperature and SNC were similar in importance on tree growth at all sites. Previous-year DPD during the annual drought period was a key factor limiting growth regionally. Winter temperature was more important at high elevation cool sites, whereas summer temperature was more important at warm and dry sites. Growth rate increased with summer temperature to an optimum (Topt) then decreased at higher temperatures. At drier sites, temperature and water affected growth interactively such that Topt decreased with decreasing summer soil moisture. With climate change, growth rates increased at high elevation sites and declined at mid-elevation inland sites since ~1990. Growth response to climate is masked by SNC regionally. We conclude that as temperature rises and precipitation patterns shift towards wetter winters and drier summers, Douglas-fir will experience greater temperature and water stress and an increase in severity of SNC. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters in the Pac

Precipitable water vapor characterization in the coastal regions of China based on ground-based GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhaoyang; Zhou, Xinghua; Liu, Yanxiong; Zhou, Dongxu; Zhang, Huayi; Sun, Weikang

2017-12-01

Water vapor plays an important role in climate change; thus, studying the spatial distribution and temporal variation of precipitable water vapor (PWV) in the coastal regions of China would help researchers to understand the climate characteristics of those regions. In this paper, 6-year 1-h interval PWV were derived from 27 Global Positioning System stations observations of Chinese coastal GPS observation network, surface meteorological data and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim) reanalysis products. The present study provides the use of these data to investigate the spatial-temporal variability of water vapor throughout the coastal regions of China. Latitude is the main factor affecting the spatial distribution of GPS-derived PWV; that is, PWV decreased by about 1.5 mm for each 1° increase of latitude. For regions at the same latitude, a region that is relatively close to the ocean will have a higher content of PWV. The PWV in the southeastern and southwestern coastal regions of China is significantly higher in summer; this may be influenced by the southeastern and southwestern water vapor inflow corridors. The PWV obviously varies monthly, reaching a minimum in January; however, the timing of the maximum varied but usually appeared in June, July or August and was affected by the monsoons. The PWV varies largely between summer and winter with a larger gradient of change in PWV with latitude in winter than in summer. The positive correlation coefficient between PWV and the surface temperature varied in different seasons; this is related to the changes of temperature and the horizontal motion of water vapor. Use of the Fast Fourier Transform method showed that the PWV time series data have multi-scale characteristics. The amplitude and phase of the PWV time series in annual, semiannual, four month and seasonal cycles were extracted through harmonic wave analysis. The amplitude of four month and seasonal cycles did not pass significance testing. The maximum amplitude of the annual PWV cycle is located in mid-latitudes with 22.09 mm, which gradually decreases towards high latitude and equator area. The peak time of annual PWV cycle occurs in July, which does not agree with the timing of the maximum monthly average PWV. The semiannual cycle amplitudes is between 0.42 and 6.32 mm, with no significant correlation between their distribution and latitude. The peak time of semiannual PWV cycles is during about January-March and July-September, and the peak time gradually becomes late from north to south.

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) Intraspecific Variation and Thermotolerance Classification Using in Vitro Seed Germination Assay

DOE PAGES

Seepaul, Ramdeo; Macoon, Bisoondat; Reddy, K. Raja; ...

2011-01-01

Cardinal temperatures for plant processes have been used for thermotolerance screening of genotypes, geoclimatic adaptability determination and phenological prediction. Current simulation models for switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) utilize single cardinal temperatures across genotypes for both vegetative and reproductive processes although in-tra-specific variation exists among genotypes. An experiment was conducted to estimate the cardinal temperatures for seed germination of 14 diverse switchgrass genotypes and to classify genotypes for temperature tolerance. Stratified seeds of each genotype were germinated at eight constant temperatures from 10 °C to 45 °C under a constant light intensity of 35 μmol m -2s -1 for 12 hdmore » -1. Germination was recorded at 6-h intervals in all treatments. Maximum seed germination (MSG) and germination rate (GR), estimated by fitting Sigmoidal function to germination-time series data, varied among genotypes. Quadratic and bilinear models best described the MSG and GR responses to temperature, respectively. The mean cardinal temperatures, T min, T opt, and T max, were 8.1, 26.6, and 45.1 °C for MSG and 11.1, 33.1, and 46.0 °C for GR, respectively. Cardinal temperatures for MSG and GR; however, varied significantly among genotypes. Genotypes were classified as sensitive (Cave-in-Rock, Dacotah, Expresso, Forestburg, Kanlow, Sunburst, Trailblazer, and Tusca), intermediate (Alamo, Blackwell, Carthage, Shawnee, and Shelter) and tolerant (Summer) to high temperature based on cumulative temperature response index (CTRI) estimated by summing individual response indices estimated from the MSG and GR cardinal temperatures. Similarly, genotypes were also classified as sensitive (Alamo, Blackwell, Carthage, Dacotah, Shawnee, Shelter and Summer), moderately sensitive (Cave-in-rock, Forestburg, Kanlow, Sunburst, and Tusca), moderately tolerant (Trailblazer), and tolerant (Expresso) to low temperatures. The cardinal temperature estimates would be useful to improve switchgrass models for field applications. Additionally, the identified cold- and heat-tolerant genotypes can be selected for niche environments and in switchgrass breeding programs to develop new genotypes for low and high temperature environments.« less

Warming and increased precipitation frequency on the Colorado Plateau: Implications for biological soil crusts and soil processes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zelikova TJ; Hosman DC; Grote EE

2011-03-21

Frequent hydration and drying of soils in arid systems can accelerate desert carbon and nitrogen mobilization due to respiration, microbial death, and release of intracellular solutes. Because desert microinvertebrates can mediate nutrient cycling, and the autotrophic components of crusts are known to be sensitive to rapid desiccation due to elevated temperatures after wetting events, we studied whether altered soil temperature and frequency of summer precipitation can also affect the composition of food web consumer functional groups. We conducted a two-year field study with experimentally-elevated temperature and frequency of summer precipitation in the Colorado Plateau desert, measuring the change in abundancemore » of nematodes, protozoans, and microarthropods. We hypothesized that microfauna would be more adversely affected by the combination of elevated temperature and frequency of summer precipitation than either effect alone, as found previously for phototrophic crust biota. Microfauna experienced normal seasonal fluctuations in abundance, but the effect of elevated temperature and frequency of summer precipitation was statistically non-significant for most microfaunal groups, except amoebae. The seasonal increase in abundance of amoebae was reduced with combined elevated temperature and increased frequency of summer precipitation compared to either treatment alone, but comparable with control (untreated) plots. Based on our findings, we suggest that desert soil microfauna are relatively more tolerant to increases in ambient temperature and frequency of summer precipitation than the autotrophic components of biological soil crust at the surface.« less

Characteristics of the cold-water belt formed off Soya Warm Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishizu, Miho; Kitade, Yujiro; Matsuyama, Masaji

2008-12-01

We examined the data obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler, conductivity-temperature-depth profiler, and expendable bathythermograph observations, which were collected in the summers of 2000, 2001, and 2002, to clarify the characteristics of the cold-water belt (CWB), i.e., lower-temperature water than the surrounding water extending from the southwest coast of Sakhalin along the offshore side of Soya Warm Current (SWC) and to confirm one of the formation mechanisms of the CWB as suggested by our previous study, i.e., the upwelling due to the convergence of bottom Ekman transport off the SWC region. The CWB was observed at about 30 km off the coast, having a thickness of 14 m and a minimum temperature of 12°C at the sea surface. The CWB does not have the specific water mass, but is constituted of three representative water types off the northeast coast of Hokkaido in summer, i.e., SWC water, Fresh Surface Okhotsk Sea Water, and Okhotsk Sea Intermediate Water. In a comparison of the horizontal distributions of current and temperature, the CWB region is found to be advected to the southeast at an average of 40 ± 29% of the maximum current velocity of the SWC. The pumping speed due to the convergence of the bottom Ekman transport is estimated as (1.5-3.0) × 10-4 m s-1. We examined the mixing ratio of the CWB, and the results implied that the water mass of the CWB is advected southeastward and mixes with a water mass upwelling in a different region off SWC.

Determinants of bovine thermal response to heat and solar radiation exposures in a field environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharf, Brad; Leonard, Michael J.; Weaber, Robert L.; Mader, Terry L.; Hahn, G. Leroy; Spiers, Donald E.

2011-07-01

Continuous exposure of cattle to summer heat in the absence of shade results in significant hyperthermia and impairs growth and general health. Reliable predictors of heat strain are needed to identify this condition. A 12-day study was conducted during a moderate summer heat period using 12 Angus x Simmental ( Bos taurus) steers (533 ± 12 kg average body weight) to identify animal and ambient determinations of core body temperature ( T core) and respiration rate (RR) responses to heat stress. Steers were provided standard diet and water ad libitum, and implanted intraperitoneally with telemetric transmitters to monitor T core hourly. Visual count of flank movement at 0800 and 1500 hours was used for RR. Dataloggers recorded air temperature ( T a), and black globe temperatures ( T bg) hourly to assess radiant heat load. Analysis was across four periods and 2 consecutive days averaged within each period. Average T a and T bg increased progressively from 21.7 to 30.3°C and 25.3 to 34.0°C, respectively, from the first to fourth periods. A model utilizing a quadratic function of T a explained the most variation in T core ( R 2 = 0.56). A delay in response from 1 to 3 h did not significantly improve R 2 for this relationship. Measurements at 0800 and 1500 hours alone are sufficient to predict heat strain. Daily minimum core body temperature and initial 2-h rise in T a were predictors of maximum core temperature and RR. Further studies using continuous monitoring are needed to expand prediction of heat stress impact under different conditions.

Seasonality of diarrheagenic Escherichia coli pathotypes in the US students acquiring diarrhea in Mexico.

PubMed

Paredes-Paredes, Mercedes; Okhuysen, Pablo C; Flores, Jose; Mohamed, Jamal A; Padda, Ranjit S; Gonzalez-Estrada, Alexei; Haley, Clinton A; Carlin, Lily G; Nair, Parvathy; DuPont, Herbert L

2011-01-01

Up to 60% of the US visitors to Mexico develop travelers' diarrhea (TD). In Mexico, rates of diarrhea have been associated with the rainy season and increase in ambient temperature. However, the seasonality of the various diarrheagenic Escherichia coli pathotypes in travelers has not been well described. A study was undertaken to determine if ambient temperature and rainfall have an impact on the acquisition of TD due to different diarrheagenic E coli pathotypes in Mexico. We conducted a cohort study of the US adult students traveling to Cuernavaca, Mexico, who were followed during their stay and provided a stool sample with the onset of TD. The presence of E coli was analyzed by a direct fecal multiplex polymerase chain reaction for common E coli pathotypes including enterotoxigenic, enteropathogenic, enteroinvasive, shiga toxin-producing, and enteroaggregative E coli (ETEC, EPEC, EIEC, STEC, and EAEC respectively). The presence of pathotypes was correlated with daily rainfall, average, maximum, and minimum temperatures. A total of 515 adults were enrolled from January 2006 to February 2007. The weekly attack rate of TD for newly arrived travelers was lower in the winter months (range 6.8%-16.3%) than in summer months (range 11.5%-25%; p = 0.05). The rate of ETEC infection increased by 7% for each degree centigrade increase in weekly ambient temperature (p = 0.003). In contrast, EPEC and EAEC were identified in similar proportions during the winter and summer seasons. Temperature variations in central Mexico influenced the rate of ETEC but not EAEC-associated diarrhea in the US visitors. This epidemiological finding could influence seasonal recommendations for the use of ETEC vaccines in Mexico. © 2011 International Society of Travel Medicine.

A time series study on the effects of heat on mortality and evaluation of heterogeneity into European and Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities: results of EU CIRCE project.

PubMed

Leone, Michela; D'Ippoliti, Daniela; De Sario, Manuela; Analitis, Antonis; Menne, Bettina; Katsouyanni, Klea; De' Donato, Francesca K; Basagana, Xavier; Salah, Afif Ben; Casimiro, Elsa; Dörtbudak, Zeynep; Iñiguez, Carmen; Peretz, Chava; Wolf, Tanja; Michelozzi, Paola

2013-07-03

The Mediterranean region is particularly vulnerable to the effect of summer temperature.Within the CIRCE project this time-series study aims to quantify for the first time the effect of summer temperature in Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities and compared it with European cities around the Mediterranean basin, evaluating city characteristics that explain between-city heterogeneity. The city-specific effect of maximum apparent temperature (Tappmax) was assessed by Generalized Estimation Equations, assuming a linear threshold model. Then, city-specific estimates were included in a random effect meta-regression analysis to investigate the effect modification by several city characteristics. Heterogeneity in the temperature-mortality relationship was observed among cities. Thresholds recorded higher values in the warmest cities of Tunis (35.5°C) and Tel-Aviv (32.8°C) while the effect of Tappmax above threshold was greater in the European cities. In Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities a higher effect was observed among younger age groups (0-14 in Tunis and 15-64 in Tel-Aviv and Istanbul) in contrast with the European cities where the elderly population was more vulnerable. Climate conditions explained most of the observed heterogeneity and among socio-demographic and economic characteristics only health expenditure and unemployment rate were identified as effect modifiers. The high vulnerability observed in the young populations in Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities represent a major public health problem. Considering the large political and economic changes occurring in this region as well future temperature increase due to climate change, it is important to strengthen research and public health efforts in these Mediterranean countries.

The role of the winter residual circulation in the summer mesopause regions in WACCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanne Kuilman, Maartje; Karlsson, Bodil

2018-03-01

High winter planetary wave activity warms the summer polar mesopause via a link between the two hemispheres. Complex wave-mean-flow interactions take place on a global scale, involving sharpening and weakening of the summer zonal flow. Changes in the wind shear occasionally generate flow instabilities. Additionally, an altering zonal wind modifies the breaking of vertically propagating gravity waves. A crucial component for changes in the summer zonal flow is the equatorial temperature, as it modifies latitudinal gradients. Since several mechanisms drive variability in the summer zonal flow, it can be hard to distinguish which one is dominant. In the mechanism coined interhemispheric coupling, the mesospheric zonal flow is suggested to be a key player for how the summer polar mesosphere responds to planetary wave activity in the winter hemisphere. We here use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to investigate the role of the summer stratosphere in shaping the conditions of the summer polar mesosphere. Using composite analyses, we show that in the absence of an anomalous summer mesospheric temperature gradient between the equator and the polar region, weak planetary wave forcing in the winter would lead to a warming of the summer mesosphere region instead of a cooling, and vice versa. This is opposing the temperature signal of the interhemispheric coupling that takes place in the mesosphere, in which a cold and calm winter stratosphere goes together with a cold summer mesopause. We hereby strengthen the evidence that the variability in the summer mesopause region is mainly driven by changes in the summer mesosphere rather than in the summer stratosphere.

Effects of high summer temperatures on mortality in 50 Spanish cities.

PubMed

Tobías, Aurelio; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Diaz, Julio

2014-06-09

Periods of high temperature have been widely found to be associated with excess mortality but with variable relationships in different cities. How these specifics depend on climatic and other characteristics of cities is not well understood. We assess summer temperature-mortality relationships using data from 50 provincial capitals in Spain, during the period 1990-2004. Poisson time series regression analyses were applied to daily temperature and mortality data, adjusting for potential confounding seasonal factors. Associations of heat with mortality were summarised for each city as the risk increments at the 99th compared to the 90th percentiles of the whole-year temperature distributions, as predicted from spline curves. Risk increments averaged 14.6% between both centiles, or 3.3% per 1 Celsius degree. Although risk increments varied substantially between cities, the range of temperature from the 90th to 99th centile was the only characteristic independently significantly associated with them. The heat increment did not depend on other city climatic, socio-demographic and geographic determinants. Cities in Spain are partially adapted to high mean summer temperatures but not to high variation in summer temperatures.

The temperature characteristics of biological active period of the peat soils of Bakchar swamp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiselev, M. V.; Dyukarev, E. A.; Voropay, N. N.

2018-01-01

The results of the study of the peculiarities of the temperature regime in the five basic ecosystems of oligotrophic bogs in the south taiga zone of Western Siberia in 2011-2016 are presented. The soil temperature regime was studied using the atmospheric-soil measuring complex at different depths from surface to 240 cm. All sites were divided into two groups according the bog water level: flooded sites (hollow and open fen) and drained sites (ridge, tall and low ryam). Waterlogged sites are better warmed in the summer period, and slowly freeze in the winter period. The analysis of the annual cycle of temperature showed that the maximum surface temperature is observed in July. The minimum temperature on the surface observed in February or January. The greatest temperature gradient was recorded in the upper 2 cm layer. The gradient at the open fen was -2 °C·cm-1 in February and 1.1 °C·cm-1 in October. The peak of formation of the seasonally frozen layer occurs at the end of autumn, beginning of winter. The degradation of the seasonally frozen layer was observed both from top and bottom, but degradation from the top is faster.

Effects of seasonal ambient heat stress (spring vs. summer) on physiological and metabolic variables in hair sheep located in an arid region.

PubMed

Macías-Cruz, U; López-Baca, M A; Vicente, R; Mejía, A; Álvarez, F D; Correa-Calderón, A; Meza-Herrera, C A; Mellado, M; Guerra-Liera, J E; Avendaño-Reyes, L

2016-08-01

Twenty Dorper × Pelibuey primiparous ewes were used to evaluate effects of seasonal ambient heat stress (i.e., spring vs. summer) on physiological and metabolic responses under production conditions in an arid region. Ten ewes experiencing summer heat stress (i.e., temperature = 34.8 ± 4.6 °C; THI = 81.6 ± 3.2 units) and 10 under spring thermoneutral conditions (temperature = 24.2 ± 5.4 °C; THI = 68.0 ± 4.8 units) were corralled together to measure rectal temperature, respiratory frequency, and skin temperatures at 0600, 1200, 1800, and 2400 h on four occasions over 40 days. Blood metabolite and electrolyte concentrations were also measured at 0600 and 1800 hours. Data were analyzed with a completely randomized design using repeated measurements in time. Rectal and skin temperatures, as well as respiratory frequency, were higher (P < 0.01) in summer than spring at all measured days. Blood serum glucose, cholesterol, triglycerides, and chlorine concentrations were lower (P < 0.01) in summer than spring at 0800 and 1800 hours. In contrast, summer heat stress increased (P < 0.01) blood urea and potassium concentrations at 0800 and 1800 hours. Compared with spring thermoneutral conditions, summer heat stress affected the physiological and metabolic status of hair breed ewes in an arid region, which included blood metabolite and electrolyte adjustments to efficiently cope with summer heat stress.

Smaller beaks for colder winters: Thermoregulation drives beak size evolution in Australasian songbirds.

PubMed

Friedman, Nicholas R; Harmáčková, Lenka; Economo, Evan P; Remeš, Vladimír

2017-08-01

Birds' beaks play a key role in foraging, and most research on their size and shape has focused on this function. Recent findings suggest that beaks may also be important for thermoregulation, and this may drive morphological evolution as predicted by Allen's rule. However, the role of thermoregulation in the evolution of beak size across species remains largely unexplored. In particular, it remains unclear whether the need for retaining heat in the winter or dissipating heat in the summer plays the greater role in selection for beak size. Comparative studies are needed to evaluate the relative importance of these functions in beak size evolution. We addressed this question in a clade of birds exhibiting wide variation in their climatic niche: the Australasian honeyeaters and allies (Meliphagoidea). Across 158 species, we compared species' climatic conditions extracted from their ranges to beak size measurements in a combined spatial-phylogenetic framework. We found that winter minimum temperature was positively correlated with beak size, while summer maximum temperature was not. This suggests that while diet and foraging behavior may drive evolutionary changes in beak shape, changes in beak size can also be explained by the beak's role in thermoregulation, and winter heat retention in particular. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Performance analysis of phase-change material storage unit for both heating and cooling of buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waqas, Adeel; Ali, Majid; Ud Din, Zia

2017-04-01

Utilisation of solar energy and the night ambient (cool) temperatures are the passive ways of heating and cooling of buildings. Intermittent and time-dependent nature of these sources makes thermal energy storage vital for efficient and continuous operation of these heating and cooling techniques. Latent heat thermal energy storage by phase-change materials (PCMs) is preferred over other storage techniques due to its high-energy storage density and isothermal storage process. The current study was aimed to evaluate the performance of the air-based PCM storage unit utilising solar energy and cool ambient night temperatures for comfort heating and cooling of a building in dry-cold and dry-hot climates. The performance of the studied PCM storage unit was maximised when the melting point of the PCM was ∼29°C in summer and 21°C during winter season. The appropriate melting point was ∼27.5°C for all-the-year-round performance. At lower melting points than 27.5°C, declination in the cooling capacity of the storage unit was more profound as compared to the improvement in the heating capacity. Also, it was concluded that the melting point of the PCM that provided maximum cooling during summer season could be used for winter heating also but not vice versa.

Seasonal acclimatization of the cardiac action potential in the Arctic navaga cod (Eleginus navaga, Gadidae).

PubMed

Hassinen, Minna; Abramochkin, Denis V; Vornanen, Matti

2014-04-01

Freshwater fishes of north-temperate latitudes adjust electrical excitability of the heart to seasonal temperature changes by changing expression levels of ion channel isoforms. However, little is known about thermal responses of action potential (AP) in the hearts of marine polar fishes. To this end, we examined cardiac AP in the atrial myocardium of the Arctic navaga cod (Eleginus navaga) from the White Sea (Russia) acclimatized to winter (March) and summer (September) seasons. Acute increases in temperature from 4 to 10 °C were associated with increases in heart rate, maximum velocity of AP upstroke and negative resting membrane potential, while duration of AP was shortened in both winter-acclimatized and summer-acclimatized navaga hearts. In winter, there was a compensatory shortening (41.1%) of atrial AP duration and this was associated with a strong increase in transcript expression of Erg K(+) channels, known to produce the rapid component of the delayed rectifier K(+) current, I(Kr). Smaller increases were found in the expression of Kir2.1 channels that produce the inward rectifier K(+) current, I(K1). These findings indicate that the heart of navaga cod has a good acclimatory capacity in electrical excitation of cardiac myocytes, which enables cardiac function in the cold-eurythermal waters of the subarctic White Sea.

Heat pipes in solar collectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bairamov, R.; Toiliev, K.

The diode property of heat pipes is evaluated for use in solar collectors. Model experiments show that the effect of heat pipes in solar collectors is most pronounced during the nighttime, when solar radiation is zero, due to a significant reduction in the heat loss from the transparent cover surface of the collector compared to that for conventional collectors. For a solar collector with a glass cover area of one square meter during the summer season when the maximum water temperature is 60 C and the discharge is 85 l/sq m/day, the water temperature in the accumulator tank of the solar collector with a heat pipe is 10-11 C higher than in the solar collector lacking a heat pipe. In addition, the design of a solar house with passive systems in which heat pipes serve as the heat eliminating mechanism is discussed

How strong is the impact of the Indo-ocean dipole on the surface air temperature/sea level pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polonsky, Alexander B.; Basharin, Dmitry V.

2017-04-01

The aim of this paper is to study the interannual climate variability over the Mediterranean region related to the Indo-ocean dipole (IOD) using the data of re-analyses, archival data and specialized numerical experiments. It is shown that the IOD does not impact essentially the anomalies of surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) in the Mediterranean region. On average, the IOD-induced share of the SAT/SLP variance in the total variance of these fields in the Mediterranean region is smaller than 10% even in summer when it is at a maximum. However, the statistically significant IOD-induced SAT/SLP anomalies in the Mediterranean region are detectable. For definite IOD events the associated Mediterranean SAT anomalies can reach about 1 °C.

The impact of heat waves on surface urban heat island and local economy in Cluj-Napoca city, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herbel, Ioana; Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Rus, Adina Viorica; Roşca, Cristina Florina; Harpa, Gabriela Victoria; Ciupertea, Antoniu-Flavius; Rus, Ionuţ

2017-07-01

The association between heat waves and the urban heat island effect can increase the impact on environment and society inducing biophysical hazards. Heat stress and their associated public health problems are among the most frequent. This paper explores the heat waves impact on surface urban heat island and on the local economy loss during three heat periods in Cluj-Napoca city in the summer of 2015. The heat wave events were identified based on daily maximum temperature, and they were divided into three classes considering the intensity threshold: moderate heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 90th percentile), severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature over the 95th percentile), and extremely severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 98th percentile). The minimum length of an event was of minimum three consecutive days. The surface urban heat island was detected based on land surface temperature derived from Landsat 8 thermal infrared data, while the economic impact was estimated based on data on work force structure and work productivity in Cluj-Napoca derived from the data released by Eurostat, National Bank of Romania, and National Institute of Statistics. The results indicate that the intensity and spatial extension of surface urban heat island could be governed by the magnitude of the heat wave event, but due to the low number of satellite images available, we should consider this information only as preliminary results. Thermal infrared remote sensing has proven to be a very efficient method to study surface urban heat island, due to the fact that the synoptic conditions associated with heat wave events usually favor cloud free image. The resolution of the OLI_TIRS sensor provided good results for a mid-extension city, but the low revisiting time is still a drawback. The potential economic loss was calculated for the working days during heat waves and the estimated loss reached more than 2.5 mil. EUR for each heat wave day at city scale, cumulating more than 38 mil. EUR for the three cases considered.

Seasonal dynamics in colored dissolved organic matter in the Mediterranean Sea: Patterns and drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Xiaogang; Claustre, Hervé; Wang, Haili; Poteau, Antoine; D`Ortenzio, Fabrizio

2014-01-01

Two autonomous profiling “Bio-Argo” floats were deployed in the northwestern and eastern sub-basins of the Mediterranean Sea in 2008. They recorded at high vertical (1 m) and temporal (5 day) resolution, the vertical distribution and seasonal variation of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), as well as of chlorophyll-a concentration and hydrological variables. The CDOM standing stock presented a clear seasonal dynamics with the progressive summer formation and winter destruction of subsurface CDOM maxima (YSM, for Yellow Substance Maximum). It was argued that subsurface CDOM is a by-product of phytoplankton, based on two main characteristics, (1) the YSM was located at the same depth than the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) and (2) the CDOM increased in summer parallels the decline in chlorophyll-a. These observations suggested an indirect but tight coupling between subsurface CDOM and phytoplankton via microbial activity or planktonic foodweb interactions. Moreover, the surface CDOM variations observed both by floats and MODIS displayed different seasonal dynamics from what recorded at subsurface one. This implies that CDOM standing stock can be hardly detected by satellite. It is worthnoting that surface CDOM was found to be more related to the sea surface temperature (SST) than chlorophyll-a concentration, suggesting its physical origin, in contrast to the biological origin of YSM and subsurface standing stocks.

Effects of season on sleep and skin temperature in the elderly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okamoto-Mizuno, Kazue; Tsuzuki, Kazuyo

2010-07-01

The effects of season on sleep and skin temperature (Tsk) in 19 healthy, elderly volunteers were investigated. Measurements were obtained in summer, winter, and fall, and activity levels were monitored using a wrist actigraph system for five consecutive days. The temperature and humidity of the bedrooms of the subjects’ homes were measured continuously for five days. During actigraphic measurement, Tsk during sleep was measured for two nights. The bedroom temperature and humidity significantly increased in summer compared to winter and fall. In summer, the total sleep time decreased (mean ± SE min; summer, 350.8 ± 15.7; winter, 426.5 ± 14.2; fall, 403.2 ± 16.4) and wakefulness increased ( P < 0.003) compared to those in fall or winter. The sleep efficiency index that was derived from wrist actigraphy was significantly decreased ( P < 0.001) in summer (81.4 ± 2.9%) compared with winter (91.6 ± 1.3%) or fall (90.2 ± 1.2%). The forehead Tsk significantly increased, while the chest and thigh Tsks were decreased in summer compared to those in fall or winter. These results suggest that, in the elderly, sleep is disturbed in summer more than in other seasons, and that this disturbance is related to fluctuations in Tsk.

Lunar and temperature effects on activity of free-living desert hamsters ( Phodopus roborovskii, Satunin 1903)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheibler, Elke; Roschlau, Corinna; Brodbeck, David

2014-10-01

Time management of truly wild hamsters was investigated in their natural habitat in Alashan desert, Inner Mongolia, China during summer of 2009, 2010, and 2012. Duration of activity outside their burrows, duration of foraging walks, and nocturnal inside stays were analyzed with the aim to elucidate impact of moon, ambient, and soil temperature. Animal data were determined using radio frequency identification (RFID) technique; for that purpose, individuals were caught in the field and marked with passive transponders. Their burrows were equipped with integrated microchip readers and photosensors for the detection of movements into or out of the burrow. Lunar impact was analyzed based on moon phase (full, waning, new, and waxing moons) and moon disk size. A prolongation of aboveground activity was shown with increasing moon disk size (Spearman ρ = 0.237; p = 0.025) which was caused by earlier onsets (ρ =-0.161; p = 0.048); additionally, foraging walks took longer (Pearson r = 0.037; p = 0.037). Temperature of different periods of time was analyzed, i.e., mean of whole day, of the activity phase, minimum, and maximum. Moreover, this was done for the current day and the previous 3 days. Overall, increasing ambient and soil temperatures were associated with shortening of activity by earlier offsets of activity and shorter nocturnal stays inside their burrows. Most influential temperatures for activity duration were the maximum ambient temperature, 3 days before (stepwise regression analysis R = 0.499; R 2 = 0.249; F = 7.281; p = 0.013) and soil temperature during activity phase, 1 day before ( R = 0.644; R 2 = 0.283; F = 7.458; p = 0.004).

From Dust Devil to Sustainable Swirling Wind Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Mingxu; Luo, Xilian; Li, Tianyu; Zhang, Liyuan; Meng, Xiangzhao; Kase, Kiwamu; Wada, Satoshi; Yu, Chuck Wah; Gu, Zhaolin

2015-02-01

Dust devils are common but meteorologically unique phenomena on Earth and on Mars. The phenomenon produces a vertical vortex motion in the atmosphere boundary layer and often occurs in hot desert regions, especially in the afternoons from late spring to early summer. Dust devils usually contain abundant wind energy, for example, a maximum swirling wind velocity of up to 25 m/s, with a 15 m/s maximum vertical velocity and 5 m/s maximum near-surface horizontal velocity can be formed. The occurrences of dust devils cannot be used for energy generation because these are generally random and short-lived. Here, a concept of sustained dust-devil-like whirlwind is proposed for the energy generation. A prototype of a circular shed with pre-rotation vanes has been devised to generate the whirlwind flow by heating the air inflow into the circular shed. The pre-rotation vanes can provide the air inflow with angular momentum. The results of numerical simulations and experiment illustrate a promising potential of the circular shed for generating swirling wind energy via the collection of low-temperature solar energy.

A Tibetan lake sediment record of Holocene Indian summer monsoon variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bird, Broxton W.; Polisar, Pratigya J.; Lei, Yanbin; Thompson, Lonnie G.; Yao, Tandong; Finney, Bruce P.; Bain, Daniel J.; Pompeani, David P.; Steinman, Byron A.

2014-08-01

Sedimentological data and hydrogen isotopic measurements of leaf wax long-chain n-alkanes (δDwax) from an alpine lake sediment archive on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (Paru Co) provide a Holocene perspective of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) activity. The sedimentological data reflect variations in lake level and erosion related to local ISM rainfall over the Paru Co catchment, whereas δDwax reflects integrated, synoptic-scale ISM dynamics. Our results indicate that maximum ISM rainfall occurred between 10.1 and ˜5.2 ka, during which time there were five century-scale high and low lake stands. After 5.2 ka, the ISM trended toward drier conditions to the present, with the exception of a pluvial event centered at 0.9 ka. The Paru Co results share similarities with paleoclimate records from across the Tibetan Plateau, suggesting millennial-scale ISM dynamics were expressed coherently. These millennial variations largely track gradual decreases in orbital insolation, the southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), decreasing zonal Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and cooling surface air temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau. Centennial ISM and lake-level variability at Paru Co closely track reconstructed surface air temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau, but may also reflect Indian Ocean Dipole events, particularly during the early Holocene when ENSO variability was attenuated. Variations in the latitude of the ITCZ during the early and late Holocene also appear to have exerted an influence on centennial ISM rainfall.

A model study of the response of hypoxia to upwelling-favorable wind on the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Yang; Fennel, Katja; Jackson, George A.; DiMarco, Steven F.; Hetland, Robert D.

2014-03-01

The hypoxic region in the northern Gulf of Mexico, one of the largest man-made hypoxic zones in the world, has received extensive scientific study and management interest. A previous statistical study has concluded that in addition to anthropogenic nitrogen loading, the observed hypoxic extent is correlated to the duration of upwelling favorable (westerly) wind without elucidating the underlying mechanism. In this study, we use a three-dimensional, coupled hydrological-biogeochemical model to mechanistically examine how variations of the hypoxic area are related to the duration of upwelling-favorable wind. We performed scenario experiments with different durations of upwelling-favorable wind using realistic winds from summer 2002 (when upwelling-favorable winds were present only for about 1 month) and summer 2009 (when upwelling-favorable conditions started early and persisted for about 2 months). While the maximum simulated hypoxic area is approximately 15,000 km2 in both cases, the evolutions of the hypoxic area and the dates when its maximum extent are reached are different. With an early start of persistently upwelling-favorable wind in 2009, the hypoxic area reached its maximum in early summer and decreased afterwards. By contrast, the hypoxic area was small in early summer of 2002 and peaked during the short period of upwelling-favorable wind in late summer. The model revealed that the wind influences the evolution of the hypoxic area by changing the vertical and horizontal distributions of the low salinity, high chlorophyll water on the shelf.

Increase of child car seat temperature in cars parked in the outpatient parking lot.

PubMed

Sugimura, Tetsu; Suzue, Junji; Kamada, Makoto; Ozaki, Yukiko; Tananari, Yoshifumi; Maeno, Yasuki; Ito, Shinichi; Nishino, Hiroshi; Kakimoto, Noriko; Yamakawa, Rumi

2011-12-01

A guideline for the safe use of child car seats (CS) was published by the Japan Pediatric Society in 2008. There have been few studies of the increase of temperature of a CS in parked cars. The aim of this study was to determine the change in the temperature of the CS in cars parked in full sun. The temperature of CS was measured during summer (July and August) in 2006, 2007, and 2008. The CS used in this study (n= 50) were for children (≤ 6 years old) who were taken by car to Sugimura Children's Medical Clinic. Temperatures were only measured on sunny days. Measurements were performed from 09.00 to 17.00 hours. Thermochron (Thermochron i-Button: G type, Maxim Integrated Products, CA, USA) was used to measure the temperatures. The maximum temperatures of CS were compared in time at the clinic, taking into consideration seat colors, and car colors. Of the 50 cars, three cars were excluded due to being in the shade while the temperature was measured. A total of 47 cars were used for this study. The temperature of the CS ranged from 38.0 to 65.5°C (47.8 ± 5.8°C). Eighteen CS (38.3%) reached a temperature of 50°C or above. The maximum temperature of the 13.00-15.00-hours group was significantly higher than that of the 09.00-11.00-hours group (P= 0.035). The CS temperatures in the black car group were significantly higher than those of the white car group (P= 0.013). CS may become very hot while a car is parked in sun, especially if the car and the CS are black, so the CS should be cooled before a young child is placed in it. Guardians of small children should be aware of this risk. © 2011 The Authors. Pediatrics International © 2011 Japan Pediatric Society.

Spatial patterns of March and September streamflow trends in Pacific Northwest Streams, 1958-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won; Steele, Madeline; Gannett, Marshall

2012-01-01

Summer streamflow is a vital water resource for municipal and domestic water supplies, irrigation, salmonid habitat, recreation, and water-related ecosystem services in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in the United States. This study detects significant negative trends in September absolute streamflow in a majority of 68 stream-gauging stations located on unregulated streams in the PNW from 1958 to 2008. The proportion of March streamflow to annual streamflow increases in most stations over 1,000 m elevation, with a baseflow index of less than 50, while absolute March streamflow does not increase in most stations. The declining trends of September absolute streamflow are strongly associated with seven-day low flow, January–March maximum temperature trends, and the size of the basin (19–7,260 km2), while the increasing trends of the fraction of March streamflow are associated with elevation, April 1 snow water equivalent, March precipitation, center timing of streamflow, and October–December minimum temperature trends. Compared with ordinary least squares (OLS) estimated regression models, spatial error regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models effectively remove spatial autocorrelation in residuals. The GWR model results show spatial gradients of local R 2 values with consistently higher local R 2 values in the northern Cascades. This finding illustrates that different hydrologic landscape factors, such as geology and seasonal distribution of precipitation, also influence streamflow trends in the PNW. In addition, our spatial analysis model results show that considering various geographic factors help clarify the dynamics of streamflow trends over a large geographical area, supporting a spatial analysis approach over aspatial OLS-estimated regression models for predicting streamflow trends. Results indicate that transitional rain–snow surface water-dominated basins are likely to have reduced summer streamflow under warming scenarios. Consequently, a better understanding of the relationships among summer streamflow, precipitation, snowmelt, elevation, and geology can help water managers predict the response of regional summer streamflow to global warming.

Ozone measurements from a global network of surface sites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oltmans, Samuel J.; Levy, Hiram, II

1994-01-01

From a network of surface ozone monitoring sites distributed primarily over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the seasonal, day-to-day, and diurnal patterns are delineated. At most of the NH (Northern Hemisphere) sites there is a spring maximum and late summer or autumn minimum. At Barrow, AK (70 deg N) and Barbados (14 deg N), however, there is a winter maximum, but the mechanisms producing the maximum are quite different. All the sites in the SH (Southern Hemisphere) show winter maxima and summer minima. At the subtropical and tropical sites, there are large day-to-day variations that reflect the changes in flow patterns. Air of tropical origin has much lower ozone concentrations than air from higher latitudes. At the two tropical sites (Barbados and Samoa), there is a marked diurnal ozone variation with highest amounts in the early morning and lowest values in the afternoon. At four of the locations (Barrow, AK; Mauna Loa, HI; American Samoa; and South Pole), there are 15- through 20-year records which allow us to look at longer term changes. At Barrow there has been a large summer increase over the 20 years of measurements. At South Pole, on the other hand, summer decreases have led to an overall decline in surface ozone amounts.

Impacts of temperature and its variability on mortality in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Liuhua; Kloog, Itai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Liu, Pengfei; Schwartz, Joel D.

2015-11-01

Rapid build-up of greenhouse gases is expected to increase Earth’s mean surface temperature, with unclear effects on temperature variability. This makes understanding the direct effects of a changing climate on human health more urgent. However, the effects of prolonged exposures to variable temperatures, which are important for understanding the public health burden, are unclear. Here we demonstrate that long-term survival was significantly associated with both seasonal mean values and standard deviations of temperature among the Medicare population (aged 65+) in New England, and break that down into long-term contrasts between ZIP codes and annual anomalies. A rise in summer mean temperature of 1 °C was associated with a 1.0% higher death rate, whereas an increase in winter mean temperature corresponded to a 0.6% decrease in mortality. Increases in standard deviations of temperature for both summer and winter were harmful. The increased mortality in warmer summers was entirely due to anomalies, whereas it was long-term average differences in the standard deviation of summer temperatures across ZIP codes that drove the increased risk. For future climate scenarios, seasonal mean temperatures may in part account for the public health burden, but the excess public health risk of climate change may also stem from changes of within-season temperature variability.

Influence of Lake Stratification Onset on Summer Surface Water Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolway, R. I.; Merchant, C. J.

2016-12-01

Summer lake surface water temperatures (LSSWT) are sensitive to climatic warming and have previously been shown to increase at a faster rate than surface air temperatures in some lakes, as a response to thermal stratification occurring earlier in spring. We explore this relationship using a combination of in situ, satellite derived, and simulated temperatures from 144 lakes. Our results demonstrate that LSSWTs of high-latitude and large deep lakes are particularly sensitive to changes in stratification onset and can be expected to display an amplified response to climatic changes in summer air temperature. Climatic modification of LSSWT has numerous consequences for water quality and lake ecosystems, so quantifying this amplified response is important.

The last glacial maximum locations of summer-green tree refugia using simulations with ECHAM3 T42 uncoupled, ECHAM5 T31 coupled and ECHAM5 T106 uncoupled models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arpe, K.; Leroy, S. A. G.; Mikolajewicz, U.

2010-04-01

Model simulations of the last glacial maximum (21±2 ka) with the ECHAM3 T42, ECHAM5 T31 coupled and ECHAM5 T106 uncoupled models are compared. The ECHAM5 T106 simulations were forced at the boundaries by results from the coupled ECHAM5-MPIOM atmosphere ocean model while the ECHAM3 T42 model was forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) provided by Climate/Long-Range Investigation, Mapping Prediction project (CLIMAP). The topography, land-sea mask and glacier distribution for the ECHAM5 simulations were taken from the PMIP2 data set while for ECHAM3 they were taken from PMIP1. The ECHAM5 simulations were run with a variable SST in time simulated by the coupled model. These were also used for the T106 run but corrected for systematic errors. The SSTs in the ECHAM5-MPIOM simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) were much warmer in the northern Atlantic than those suggested by CLIMAP or GLAMAP while they were cooler everywhere else. This had a clear effect on the temperatures over Europe, warmer for winters in Western Europe and cooler for Eastern Europe than the simulation with CLIMAP SSTs. Considerable differences in the general circulation patterns were found in the different simulations. A ridge over Western Europe for the present climate during winter in the 500 hPa height field remains in the ECHAM5 simulations for the LGM, more so in the T106 version, while the ECHAM3 CLIMAP simulation provided a trough. The zonal wind between 30° W and 10° E shows a southward shift of the polar and subtropical jet in the T106 simulation for the LGM and an extremely strong polar jet for the ECHAM3 CLIMAP. The latter can probably be assigned to the much stronger north-south gradient in the CLIMAP SSTs. The southward shift of the polar jet during LGM is supported by observation evidence. Cyclone tracks in winter represented by high precipitation are characterised over Europe for the present by a main branch from Great Britain to Norway and a secondary branch towards the Mediterranean Sea. For the LGM the different models show very different solutions: the ECHAM3 CLIMAP simulations show just one track going eastward from Great Britain into central Europe, while the ECHAM5 T106 simulation still has two branches but the main one goes to the Mediterranean Sea, with enhanced precipitation in the Levant. This agrees with an observed high stand of the Dead Sea during the LGM. For summer the ECHAM5 T106 simulations provide much more precipitation for the present over Europe than the other simulations thus agreeing with estimates by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Also during the LGM this model makes Europe less arid than the other simulations. In many respects the ECHAM5 T106 simulations for the present were more realistic than the ECHAM5 T31 coupled simulation and the older ECHAM3 T42 simulations, when comparing them with the ECMWF reanalysis or the GPCP data. For validating the model data for the LGM, pollen and charcoal analyses were compared with possible summer-green tree growth from model estimates using summer precipitation, minimum winter temperatures and growing degree days (above 5 °C). The ECHAM5 T106 simulations suggest at more sites with findings from pollen or charcoal analyses likely tree growth during the LGM than the other simulations, especially over Western Europe. The clear message especially from the ECHAM5 T106 simulations is that warm-loving summer-green trees could have survived mainly in Spain but also in Greece in agreement with findings of pollen or charcoal.

Nonlinear response of summer temperature to Holocene insolation forcing in Alaska.

PubMed

Clegg, Benjamin F; Kelly, Ryan; Clarke, Gina H; Walker, Ian R; Hu, Feng Sheng

2011-11-29

Regional climate responses to large-scale forcings, such as precessional changes in solar irradiation and increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may be nonlinear as a result of complex interactions among earth system components. Such nonlinear behaviors constitute a major source of climate "surprises" with important socioeconomic and ecological implications. Paleorecords are key for elucidating patterns and mechanisms of nonlinear responses to radiative forcing, but their utility has been greatly limited by the paucity of quantitative temperature reconstructions. Here we present Holocene July temperature reconstructions on the basis of midge analysis of sediment cores from three Alaskan lakes. Results show that summer temperatures during 10,000-5,500 calibrated years (cal) B.P. were generally lower than modern and that peak summer temperatures around 5,000 were followed by a decreasing trend toward the present. These patterns stand in stark contrast with the trend of precessional insolation, which decreased by ∼10% from 10,000 y ago to the present. Cool summers before 5,500 cal B.P. coincided with extensive summer ice cover in the western Arctic Ocean, persistence of a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, predominantly La Niña-like conditions, and variation in the position of the Alaskan treeline. These results illustrate nonlinear responses of summer temperatures to Holocene insolation radiative forcing in the Alaskan sub-Arctic, possibly because of state changes in the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation and associated land-atmosphere-ocean feedbacks.

Nonlinear response of summer temperature to Holocene insolation forcing in Alaska

PubMed Central

Clegg, Benjamin F.; Kelly, Ryan; Clarke, Gina H.; Walker, Ian R.; Hu, Feng Sheng

2011-01-01

Regional climate responses to large-scale forcings, such as precessional changes in solar irradiation and increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may be nonlinear as a result of complex interactions among earth system components. Such nonlinear behaviors constitute a major source of climate “surprises” with important socioeconomic and ecological implications. Paleorecords are key for elucidating patterns and mechanisms of nonlinear responses to radiative forcing, but their utility has been greatly limited by the paucity of quantitative temperature reconstructions. Here we present Holocene July temperature reconstructions on the basis of midge analysis of sediment cores from three Alaskan lakes. Results show that summer temperatures during 10,000–5,500 calibrated years (cal) B.P. were generally lower than modern and that peak summer temperatures around 5,000 were followed by a decreasing trend toward the present. These patterns stand in stark contrast with the trend of precessional insolation, which decreased by ∼10% from 10,000 y ago to the present. Cool summers before 5,500 cal B.P. coincided with extensive summer ice cover in the western Arctic Ocean, persistence of a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, predominantly La Niña-like conditions, and variation in the position of the Alaskan treeline. These results illustrate nonlinear responses of summer temperatures to Holocene insolation radiative forcing in the Alaskan sub-Arctic, possibly because of state changes in the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation and associated land–atmosphere–ocean feedbacks. PMID:22084085

Seasonal Shift in Climatic Limiting Factors on Tree Transpiration: Evidence from Sap Flow Observations at Alpine Treelines in Southeast Tibet

PubMed Central

Liu, Xinsheng; Nie, Yuqin; Luo, Tianxiang; Yu, Jiehui; Shen, Wei; Zhang, Lin

2016-01-01

Alpine and northern treelines are primarily controlled by low temperatures. However, little is known about the impact of low soil temperature on tree transpiration at treelines. We aim to test the hypothesis that in cold-limited forests, the main limiting factors for tree transpiration switch from low soil temperature before summer solstice to atmospheric evaporative demand after summer solstice, which generally results in low transpiration in the early growing season. Sap flow, meteorological factors and predawn needle water potential were continuously monitored throughout one growing season across Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii) and juniper (Juniperus saltuaria) treelines in southeast Tibet. Sap flow started in early May and corresponded to a threshold mean air-temperature of 0°C. Across tree species, transpiration was mainly limited by low soil temperature prior to the summer solstice but by vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation post-summer solstice, which was further confirmed on a daily scale. As a result, tree transpiration for both tree species was significantly reduced in the pre-summer solstice period as compared to post-summer solstice, resulting in a lower predawn needle water potential for Smith fir trees in the early growing season. Our data supported the hypothesis, suggesting that tree transpiration mainly responds to soil temperature variations in the early growing season. The results are important for understanding the hydrological response of cold-limited forest ecosystems to climate change. PMID:27468289

Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.

2009-09-01

For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.

Rearing sunshine bass using diets formulated for summer water temperatures

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Elevated water temperatures are common in hybrid striped bass or Sunshine bass (HSB; Morone chrysops x M. saxatilis) production ponds during summer months in the southern US. Median daily water temperatures often exceed 30 C from June through September. This experiment was conducted to extend and re...

INFLUENCE OF SUMMER STREAM TEMPERATURES ON BLACK SPOT INFESTATION OF JUVENILE COHO SALMON IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE

EPA Science Inventory

High summer water temperatures can adversely affect stream salmonids in numerous ways. The direct effects of temperature associated with increased metabolic demand can be exacerbated by other factors, including decreased resistance to disease and increased susceptibility to para...

Climate change in Lagos state, Nigeria: what really changed?

PubMed

Sojobi, Adebayo Olatunbosun; Balogun, Isaac Idowu; Salami, Adebayo Wahab

2015-10-01

Our study revealed periodicities of 2.3 and 2.25 years in wet and dry seasons and periodicities of 2 to 5 years on seasonal and annual timescales. Minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and evaporation recorded increases of 2.47, 1.37 and 28.37 %, respectively, but a reduction of 19.58 % in rainfall on decadal timescale. Periodicity of 8 to 12 years was also observed in annual Tmax. Cramer's test indicated a warming trend with significant Tmax increase in February, April, July, August, October and November during 2000-2009 on decadal monthly timescale, a significant decline in Summer rainfall but significant Tmax increase in Spring, Autumn and Winter on decadal seasonal timescale. The low correlation of rainfall with temperature parameters and evaporation indicates that advection of moisture into Lagos State seems to be the dominant mechanism controlling rainfall within the State alongside other tropical and extra-tropical factors. In addition, our study revealed that the persistent state of minimum temperature often precedes the arrival and reversal of the phase of maximum temperature. Furthermore, our study also revealed that extreme and high variable rainfalls, which are associated with the increased warming trend, had periodicities of 1 to 3 years with a probability of 86.45 % of occurring every 3 years between April and September. It is recommended that government and private sector should give financial and technical supports to climate researches in order to appropriately inform policy making to improve the adaptive capacity and resilience of Lagos State against climate change impacts and guard against maladaptation.

The effect of length and starting year on trend analyses of temperatures in Spanish mainland (1951-2010). Seasonal analyses: Summer (IV)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas Solé, Celia; Peña Angulo, Dhais; Gonzalez Hidalgo, Jose Carlos; Brunetti, Michele

2017-04-01

In this poster we applied the moving window approach (see Poster I of this collection) to analyze trends of summer and its corresponding months (June, July, August) temperature mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) in Spanish mainland to detect the effects of length period and starting year. Monthly series belong to Monthly Temperature dataset of Spanish mainland (MOTEDAS). Database contains in its grid format of 5236 pixels of monthly series (10x10 km). The threshold used in spatial analyses considers 20% of land under significant trend (p<0.05). The most striking results are as follow: • Tmax and Tmin seasonal trends affected mostly all the Spanish mainland, while the area affected decrease from 1983-2010 (Tmax) and 1987-2010 (Tmin). In both cases the areas affected significantly in recent decades are restricted to Eastern-coastland areas. • Monthly analyses show highly differences between Tmax and Tmin. Only June Tmax show significant trend in extended areas, and in fact from 70´s they are restricted to eastern coastland. Meanwhile both July and August Tmax trend affect particularly that area until mid 70´s. • Monthly trend analyses of Tmin show different patterns both in temporal windows and spatial distribution. Significant trend in June dominates practically all windows, while in July and August they predominate in south and eastern-Mediterranean coastland. No significant trend has been observed from middle of the 80´s (< 20% of area). In conclusion, summer trend analyses of Tmax and Tmin and their spatial distribution show clearly highly differences. In Tmax seasonal trend seems to be dominated by June Tmax behavior, while in Tmin the contribution of July and August must be considered particularly in southern and eastern-Mediterranean coastland. The most recent decades in Tmax and Tmin do not show significance, except in June Tmin.

Thermal reaction norms and the scale of temperature variation: latitudinal vulnerability of intertidal nacellid limpets to climate change.

PubMed

Morley, Simon A; Martin, Stephanie M; Day, Robert W; Ericson, Jess; Lai, Chien-Houng; Lamare, Miles; Tan, Koh-Siang; Thorne, Michael A S; Peck, Lloyd S

2012-01-01

The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), Australia (C. tramoserica) and Singapore (C. radiata), were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of "duration tenacity", which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (T(opt)) increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna) to 14.3°C (C. ornata) to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica) to 27.6°C (C. radiata). The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CT(max) and T(opt) over habitat temperature). However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their environment could markedly influence their future distributions.

Thermal Reaction Norms and the Scale of Temperature Variation: Latitudinal Vulnerability of Intertidal Nacellid Limpets to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Morley, Simon A.; Martin, Stephanie M.; Day, Robert W.; Ericson, Jess; Lai, Chien-Houng; Lamare, Miles; Tan, Koh-Siang; Thorne, Michael A. S.; Peck, Lloyd S.

2012-01-01

The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), Australia (C. tramoserica) and Singapore (C. radiata), were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of “duration tenacity”, which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (Topt) increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna) to 14.3°C (C. ornata) to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica) to 27.6°C (C. radiata). The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CTmax and Topt over habitat temperature). However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their environment could markedly influence their future distributions. PMID:23285194

Carbon dioxide and water vapor fluxes over Erhai Lake using eddy covariance technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, J.; Liu, H.; Sun, J.

2012-12-01

The lakes have significant impacts on the local or even regional weather and climate. However, the effect of lakes is poorly parameterized in numerical weather prediction and climate models until now. In this background, an eddy covariance measurement site was built to directly measure long-term turbulent fluxes of water vapor and CO2 over Erhai Lake (area 250 km2, maximum depth 21.5 m) in the Southwest part of China. This study aimed at getting better understands on the air-lake interaction that in turn may benefit the parameterization schemes in the models. The observations also included radiation, wind speed, direction, and water temperature profile measurements. Using a whole year data in 2011, the diurnal variation patterns of sensible heat, latent heat and CO2 fluxes were investigated. The sensible heat flux peaked in early morning (about 25 W m-2) and reached its minimum in the afternoon (about -15 W m-2), and was strongly controlled by the air-water temperature difference. The latent had an opposite diurnal course with a maximum in the afternoon (about 150 W m-2) and minimum in the morning (about 5 W m-2), which was correlated with water pressure deficit and wind speed. The CO2 fluxes were positive at night (about 2.1 μmol m-2 s-1), and weakly negative (about -1.0 μmol m-2 s-1) in the afternoon (14:00-16:00). In the seasonal time scale, the lake was a weak CO2 sink in the summer, but a CO2 source in the other time of the year. In order to analyze energy balance, heat storage of water was estimated using water temperature profile data. The result showed that the average energy balance closure was about 85% in the summer, and about 78% in the other time of the year. The minimum values of albedo were observed to be about 0.05 at midday, indicating a large part of solar radiation was absorbed by the water. The aerodynamic roughness length (z0) and bulk transfer coefficients (Cd, Ch and Cq) were also estimated using eddy covariance data. The average value of z0 was 0.043 m in the summer and 0.050 m in other periods of the year. The average value of Cd, Ch, and Cq was 2.1 x 10-3, 1.3 x 10-3, and 1.5 x 10-3 respectively for the whole year.