Simulation of wheat growth and development based on organ-level photosynthesis and assimilate allocation.

PubMed

Evers, J B; Vos, J; Yin, X; Romero, P; van der Putten, P E L; Struik, P C

2010-05-01

Intimate relationships exist between form and function of plants, determining many processes governing their growth and development. However, in most crop simulation models that have been created to simulate plant growth and, for example, predict biomass production, plant structure has been neglected. In this study, a detailed simulation model of growth and development of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum) is presented, which integrates degree of tillering and canopy architecture with organ-level light interception, photosynthesis, and dry-matter partitioning. An existing spatially explicit 3D architectural model of wheat development was extended with routines for organ-level microclimate, photosynthesis, assimilate distribution within the plant structure according to organ demands, and organ growth and development. Outgrowth of tiller buds was made dependent on the ratio between assimilate supply and demand of the plants. Organ-level photosynthesis, biomass production, and bud outgrowth were simulated satisfactorily. However, to improve crop simulation results more efforts are needed mechanistically to model other major plant physiological processes such as nitrogen uptake and distribution, tiller death, and leaf senescence. Nevertheless, the work presented here is a significant step forwards towards a mechanistic functional-structural plant model, which integrates plant architecture with key plant processes.

Pharmacokinetic Modeling to Simulate the Concentration-Time Profiles After Dermal Application of Rivastigmine Patch.

PubMed

Nozaki, Sachiko; Yamaguchi, Masayuki; Lefèvre, Gilbert

2016-07-01

Rivastigmine is an inhibitor of acetylcholinesterases and butyrylcholinesterases for symptomatic treatment of Alzheimer disease and is available as oral and transdermal patch formulations. A dermal absorption pharmacokinetic (PK) model was developed to simulate the plasma concentration-time profile of rivastigmine to answer questions relative to the efficacy and safety risks after misuse of the patch (e.g., longer application than 24 h, multiple patches applied at the same time, and so forth). The model comprised 2 compartments which was a combination of mechanistic dermal absorption model and a basic 1-compartment model. The initial values for the model were determined based on the physicochemical characteristics of rivastigmine and PK parameters after intravenous administration. The model was fitted to the clinical PK profiles after single application of rivastigmine patch to obtain model parameters. The final model was validated by confirming that the simulated concentration-time curves and PK parameters (Cmax and area under the drug plasma concentration-time curve) conformed to the observed values and then was used to simulate the PK profiles of rivastigmine. This work demonstrated that the mechanistic dermal PK model fitted the clinical data well and was able to simulate the PK profile after patch misuse. Copyright © 2016 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding the effect of carbon status on stem diameter variations

PubMed Central

De Swaef, Tom; Driever, Steven M.; Van Meulebroek, Lieven; Vanhaecke, Lynn; Marcelis, Leo F. M.; Steppe, Kathy

2013-01-01

Background Carbon assimilation and leaf-to-fruit sugar transport are, along with plant water status, the driving mechanisms for fruit growth. An integrated comprehension of the plant water and carbon relationships is therefore essential to better understand water and dry matter accumulation. Variations in stem diameter result from an integrated response to plant water and carbon status and are as such a valuable source of information. Methods A mechanistic water flow and storage model was used to relate variations in stem diameter to phloem sugar loading and sugar concentration dynamics in tomato. The simulation results were compared with an independent model, simulating phloem sucrose loading at the leaf level based on photosynthesis and sugar metabolism kinetics and enabled a mechanistic interpretation of the ‘one common assimilate pool’ concept for tomato. Key Results Combining stem diameter variation measurements and mechanistic modelling allowed us to distinguish instantaneous dynamics in the plant water relations and gradual variations in plant carbon status. Additionally, the model combined with stem diameter measurements enabled prediction of dynamic variables which are difficult to measure in a continuous and non-destructive way, such as xylem water potential and phloem hydrostatic potential. Finally, dynamics in phloem sugar loading and sugar concentration were distilled from stem diameter variations. Conclusions Stem diameter variations, when used in mechanistic models, have great potential to continuously monitor and interpret plant water and carbon relations under natural growing conditions. PMID:23186836

Predicting agricultural impacts of large-scale drought: 2012 and the case for better modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We present an example of a simulation-based forecast for the 2012 U.S. maize growing season produced as part of a high-resolution, multi-scale, predictive mechanistic modeling study designed for decision support, risk management, and counterfactual analysis. The simulations undertaken for this analy...

Atomic scale simulations for improved CRUD and fuel performance modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andersson, Anders David Ragnar; Cooper, Michael William Donald

2017-01-06

A more mechanistic description of fuel performance codes can be achieved by deriving models and parameters from atomistic scale simulations rather than fitting models empirically to experimental data. The same argument applies to modeling deposition of corrosion products on fuel rods (CRUD). Here are some results from publications in 2016 carried out using the CASL allocation at LANL.

A method to identify and analyze biological programs through automated reasoning

PubMed Central

Yordanov, Boyan; Dunn, Sara-Jane; Kugler, Hillel; Smith, Austin; Martello, Graziano; Emmott, Stephen

2016-01-01

Predictive biology is elusive because rigorous, data-constrained, mechanistic models of complex biological systems are difficult to derive and validate. Current approaches tend to construct and examine static interaction network models, which are descriptively rich, but often lack explanatory and predictive power, or dynamic models that can be simulated to reproduce known behavior. However, in such approaches implicit assumptions are introduced as typically only one mechanism is considered, and exhaustively investigating all scenarios is impractical using simulation. To address these limitations, we present a methodology based on automated formal reasoning, which permits the synthesis and analysis of the complete set of logical models consistent with experimental observations. We test hypotheses against all candidate models, and remove the need for simulation by characterizing and simultaneously analyzing all mechanistic explanations of observed behavior. Our methodology transforms knowledge of complex biological processes from sets of possible interactions and experimental observations to precise, predictive biological programs governing cell function. PMID:27668090

Model for estimating enteric methane emissions from United States dairy and feedlot cattle.

PubMed

Kebreab, E; Johnson, K A; Archibeque, S L; Pape, D; Wirth, T

2008-10-01

Methane production from enteric fermentation in cattle is one of the major sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission in the United States and worldwide. National estimates of methane emissions rely on mathematical models such as the one recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Models used for prediction of methane emissions from cattle range from empirical to mechanistic with varying input requirements. Two empirical and 2 mechanistic models (COWPOLL and MOLLY) were evaluated for their prediction ability using individual cattle measurements. Model selection was based on mean square prediction error (MSPE), concordance correlation coefficient, and residuals vs. predicted values analyses. In dairy cattle, COWPOLL had the lowest root MSPE and greatest accuracy and precision of predicting methane emissions (correlation coefficient estimate = 0.75). The model simulated differences in diet more accurately than the other models, and the residuals vs. predicted value analysis showed no mean bias (P = 0.71). In feedlot cattle, MOLLY had the lowest root MSPE with almost all errors from random sources (correlation coefficient estimate = 0.69). The IPCC model also had good agreement with observed values, and no significant mean (P = 0.74) or linear bias (P = 0.11) was detected when residuals were plotted against predicted values. A fixed methane conversion factor (Ym) might be an easier alternative to diet-dependent variable Ym. Based on the results, the 2 mechanistic models were used to simulate methane emissions from representative US diets and were compared with the IPCC model. The average Ym in dairy cows was 5.63% of GE (range 3.78 to 7.43%) compared with 6.5% +/- 1% recommended by IPCC. In feedlot cattle, the average Ym was 3.88% (range 3.36 to 4.56%) compared with 3% +/- 1% recommended by IPCC. Based on our simulations, using IPCC values can result in an overestimate of about 12.5% and underestimate of emissions by about 9.8% for dairy and feedlot cattle, respectively. In addition to providing improved estimates of emissions based on diets, mechanistic models can be used to assess mitigation options such as changing source of carbohydrate or addition of fat to decrease methane, which is not possible with empirical models. We recommend national inventories use diet-specific Ym values predicted by mechanistic models to estimate methane emissions from cattle.

SIMULATION MODELING OF GASTROINTESTINAL ABSORPTION

EPA Science Inventory

Mathematical dosimetry models incorporate mechanistic determinants of chemical disposition in a living organism to describe relationships between exposure concentration and the internal dose needed for PBPK models and human health risk assessment. Because they rely on determini...

Development of a Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model for Sinogliatin, a First-in-Class Glucokinase Activator, by Integrating Allometric Scaling, In Vitro to In Vivo Exploration and Steady-State Concentration-Mean Residence Time Methods: Mechanistic Understanding of its Pharmacokinetics.

PubMed

Song, Ling; Zhang, Yi; Jiang, Ji; Ren, Shuang; Chen, Li; Liu, Dongyang; Chen, Xijing; Hu, Pei

2018-04-06

The objective of this study was to develop a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for sinogliatin (HMS-5552, dorzagliatin) by integrating allometric scaling (AS), in vitro to in vivo exploration (IVIVE), and steady-state concentration-mean residence time (C ss -MRT) methods and to provide mechanistic insight into its pharmacokinetic properties in humans. Human major pharmacokinetic parameters were analyzed using AS, IVIVE, and C ss -MRT methods with available preclinical in vitro and in vivo data to understand sinogliatin drug metabolism and pharmacokinetic (DMPK) characteristics and underlying mechanisms. On this basis, an initial mechanistic PBPK model of sinogliatin was developed. The initial PBPK model was verified using observed data from a single ascending dose (SAD) study and further optimized with various strategies. The final model was validated by simulating sinogliatin pharmacokinetics under a fed condition. The validated model was applied to support a clinical drug-drug interaction (DDI) study design and to evaluate the effects of intrinsic (hepatic cirrhosis, genetic) factors on drug exposure. The two-species scaling method using rat and dog data (TS- rat,dog ) was the best AS method in predicting human systemic clearance in the central compartment (CL). The IVIVE method confirmed that sinogliatin was predominantly metabolized by cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4. The C ss -MRT method suggested dog pharmacokinetic profiles were more similar to human pharmacokinetic profiles. The estimated CL using the AS and IVIVE approaches was within 1.5-fold of that observed. The C ss -MRT method in dogs also provided acceptable prediction of human pharmacokinetic characteristics. For the PBPK approach, the 90% confidence intervals (CIs) of the simulated maximum concentration (C max ), CL, and area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) of sinogliatin were within those observed and the 90% CI of simulated time to C max (t max ) was closed to that observed for a dose range of 5-50 mg in the SAD study. The final PBPK model was validated by simulating sinogliatin pharmacokinetics with food. The 90% CIs of the simulated C max , CL, and AUC values for sinogliatin were within those observed and the 90% CI of the simulated t max was partially within that observed for the dose range of 25-200 mg in the multiple ascending dose (MAD) study. This PBPK model selected a final clinical DDI study design with itraconazole from four potential designs and also evaluated the effects of intrinsic (hepatic cirrhosis, genetic) factors on drug exposure. Sinogliatin pharmacokinetic properties were mechanistically understood by integrating all four methods and a mechanistic PBPK model was successfully developed and validated using clinical data. This PBPK model was applied to support the development of sinogliatin.

Mechanistic modelling of the inhibitory effect of pH on microbial growth.

PubMed

Akkermans, Simen; Van Impe, Jan F

2018-06-01

Modelling and simulation of microbial dynamics as a function of processing, transportation and storage conditions is a useful tool to improve microbial food safety and quality. The goal of this research is to improve an existing methodology for building mechanistic predictive models based on the environmental conditions. The effect of environmental conditions on microbial dynamics is often described by combining the separate effects in a multiplicative way (gamma concept). This idea was extended further in this work by including the effects of the lag and stationary growth phases on microbial growth rate as independent gamma factors. A mechanistic description of the stationary phase as a function of pH was included, based on a novel class of models that consider product inhibition. Experimental results on Escherichia coli growth dynamics indicated that also the parameters of the product inhibition equations can be modelled with the gamma approach. This work has extended a modelling methodology, resulting in predictive models that are (i) mechanistically inspired, (ii) easily identifiable with a limited work load and (iii) easily extended to additional environmental conditions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Inferring the Impact of Regulatory Mechanisms that Underpin CD8+ T Cell Control of B16 Tumor Growth In vivo Using Mechanistic Models and Simulation.

PubMed

Klinke, David J; Wang, Qing

2016-01-01

A major barrier for broadening the efficacy of immunotherapies for cancer is identifying key mechanisms that limit the efficacy of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes. Yet, identifying these mechanisms using human samples and mouse models for cancer remains a challenge. While interactions between cancer and the immune system are dynamic and non-linear, identifying the relative roles that biological components play in regulating anti-tumor immunity commonly relies on human intuition alone, which can be limited by cognitive biases. To assist natural intuition, modeling and simulation play an emerging role in identifying therapeutic mechanisms. To illustrate the approach, we developed a multi-scale mechanistic model to describe the control of tumor growth by a primary response of CD8+ T cells against defined tumor antigens using the B16 C57Bl/6 mouse model for malignant melanoma. The mechanistic model was calibrated to data obtained following adenovirus-based immunization and validated to data obtained following adoptive transfer of transgenic CD8+ T cells. More importantly, we use simulation to test whether the postulated network topology, that is the modeled biological components and their associated interactions, is sufficient to capture the observed anti-tumor immune response. Given the available data, the simulation results also provided a statistical basis for quantifying the relative importance of different mechanisms that underpin CD8+ T cell control of B16F10 growth. By identifying conditions where the postulated network topology is incomplete, we illustrate how this approach can be used as part of an iterative design-build-test cycle to expand the predictive power of the model.

Hierarchical Modeling of Activation Mechanisms in the ABL and EGFR Kinase Domains: Thermodynamic and Mechanistic Catalysts of Kinase Activation by Cancer Mutations

PubMed Central

Dixit, Anshuman; Verkhivker, Gennady M.

2009-01-01

Structural and functional studies of the ABL and EGFR kinase domains have recently suggested a common mechanism of activation by cancer-causing mutations. However, dynamics and mechanistic aspects of kinase activation by cancer mutations that stimulate conformational transitions and thermodynamic stabilization of the constitutively active kinase form remain elusive. We present a large-scale computational investigation of activation mechanisms in the ABL and EGFR kinase domains by a panel of clinically important cancer mutants ABL-T315I, ABL-L387M, EGFR-T790M, and EGFR-L858R. We have also simulated the activating effect of the gatekeeper mutation on conformational dynamics and allosteric interactions in functional states of the ABL-SH2-SH3 regulatory complexes. A comprehensive analysis was conducted using a hierarchy of computational approaches that included homology modeling, molecular dynamics simulations, protein stability analysis, targeted molecular dynamics, and molecular docking. Collectively, the results of this study have revealed thermodynamic and mechanistic catalysts of kinase activation by major cancer-causing mutations in the ABL and EGFR kinase domains. By using multiple crystallographic states of ABL and EGFR, computer simulations have allowed one to map dynamics of conformational fluctuations and transitions in the normal (wild-type) and oncogenic kinase forms. A proposed multi-stage mechanistic model of activation involves a series of cooperative transitions between different conformational states, including assembly of the hydrophobic spine, the formation of the Src-like intermediate structure, and a cooperative breakage and formation of characteristic salt bridges, which signify transition to the active kinase form. We suggest that molecular mechanisms of activation by cancer mutations could mimic the activation process of the normal kinase, yet exploiting conserved structural catalysts to accelerate a conformational transition and the enhanced stabilization of the active kinase form. The results of this study reconcile current experimental data with insights from theoretical approaches, pointing to general mechanistic aspects of activating transitions in protein kinases. PMID:19714203

Mechanisms of Developmental Change in Infant Categorization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Westermann, Gert; Mareschal, Denis

2012-01-01

Computational models are tools for testing mechanistic theories of learning and development. Formal models allow us to instantiate theories of cognitive development in computer simulations. Model behavior can then be compared to real performance. Connectionist models, loosely based on neural information processing, have been successful in…

Monte Carlo modeling of atomic oxygen attack of polymers with protective coatings on LDEF

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banks, Bruce A.; Degroh, Kim K.; Sechkar, Edward A.

1992-01-01

Characterization of the behavior of atomic oxygen interaction with materials on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) will assist in understanding the mechanisms involved, and will lead to improved reliability in predicting in-space durability of materials based on ground laboratory testing. A computational simulation of atomic oxygen interaction with protected polymers was developed using Monte Carlo techniques. Through the use of assumed mechanistic behavior of atomic oxygen and results of both ground laboratory and LDEF data, a predictive Monte Carlo model was developed which simulates the oxidation processes that occur on polymers with applied protective coatings that have defects. The use of high atomic oxygen fluence-directed ram LDEF results has enabled mechanistic implications to be made by adjusting Monte Carlo modeling assumptions to match observed results based on scanning electron microscopy. Modeling assumptions, implications, and predictions are presented, along with comparison of observed ground laboratory and LDEF results.

Models of regeneration, tree growth, and current and potential ranges of tree and mammal species in the Eastern U.S.

Treesearch

Elaine K. Sutherland; Louis R. Iverson; Daniel A. Yaussy; Charles T. Scott; Betsy J. Hale; Anantha Prasad; Mark Schwartz; Hope R. Barrett

1997-01-01

An environmentally responsive, mechanistic regeneration simulator should simulate important ecological relationships and disturbance effects. Development of such a regeneration simulator is complex because of the many attributes that characterize reproductive strategies and the importance of forest history and disturbance in determining the composition of the next...

Spatially explicit and stochastic simulation of forest landscape fire disturbance and succession

Treesearch

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

1999-01-01

Understanding disturbance and recovery of forest landscapes is a challenge because of complex interactions over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Landscape simulation models offer an approach to studying such systems at broad scales. Fire can be simulated spatially using mechanistic or stochastic approaches. We describe the fire module in a spatially explicit,...

PREDICTING THE REGIONAL IMPACT OF OZONE AND PRECIPITATION ON THE GROWTH OF LOBLOLLY PINE AND YELLOW-POPLAR USING LINKED TREGRO AND ZELIG MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

To simulate the long-term effects of ozone on forests in the US, we linked TREGRO, a mechanistic model of an individual tree, to ZELIG, a forest stand model, to examine the response of forests to 5 ozone exposure regimes (0 to 100 ppm-hr SUM06 per year) in 100 year simulations. ...

SIMULATION OF OZONE EFFECTS ON EIGHT TREE SPECIES AT SHENANDOAH NATIONAL PARK

EPA Science Inventory

As part of an assessment of potential effects of air pollutants on the vegetation of Shenandoah National Park (SHEN), we simulated the growth of eight important tree species using TREGRO, a mechanistic model of individual tree growth. Published TREGRO parameters for black cherry...

Assessing first-order emulator inference for physical parameters in nonlinear mechanistic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Leeds, William B.; Fiechter, Jerome; Wikle, Christopher K.

2011-01-01

We present an approach for estimating physical parameters in nonlinear models that relies on an approximation to the mechanistic model itself for computational efficiency. The proposed methodology is validated and applied in two different modeling scenarios: (a) Simulation and (b) lower trophic level ocean ecosystem model. The approach we develop relies on the ability to predict right singular vectors (resulting from a decomposition of computer model experimental output) based on the computer model input and an experimental set of parameters. Critically, we model the right singular vectors in terms of the model parameters via a nonlinear statistical model. Specifically, we focus our attention on first-order models of these right singular vectors rather than the second-order (covariance) structure.

Whole-body iron transport and metabolism: Mechanistic, multi-scale model to improve treatment of anemia in chronic kidney disease

PubMed Central

Sarkar, Joydeep

2018-01-01

Iron plays vital roles in the human body including enzymatic processes, oxygen-transport via hemoglobin and immune response. Iron metabolism is characterized by ~95% recycling and minor replenishment through diet. Anemia of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is characterized by a lack of synthesis of erythropoietin leading to reduced red blood cell (RBC) formation and aberrant iron recycling. Treatment of CKD anemia aims to normalize RBC count and serum hemoglobin. Clinically, the various fluxes of iron transport and accumulation are not measured so that changes during disease (e.g., CKD) and treatment are unknown. Unwanted iron accumulation in patients is known to lead to adverse effects. Current whole-body models lack the mechanistic details of iron transport related to RBC maturation, transferrin (Tf and TfR) dynamics and assume passive iron efflux from macrophages. Hence, they are not predictive of whole-body iron dynamics and cannot be used to design individualized patient treatment. For prediction, we developed a mechanistic, multi-scale computational model of whole-body iron metabolism incorporating four compartments containing major pools of iron and RBC generation process. The model accounts for multiple forms of iron in vivo, mechanisms involved in iron uptake and release and their regulation. Furthermore, the model is interfaced with drug pharmacokinetics to allow simulation of treatment dynamics. We calibrated our model with experimental and clinical data from peer-reviewed literature to reliably simulate CKD anemia and the effects of current treatment involving combination of epoietin-alpha and iron dextran. This in silico whole-body model of iron metabolism predicts that a year of treatment can potentially lead to 90% downregulation of ferroportin (FPN) levels, 15-fold increase in iron stores with only a 20% increase in iron flux from the reticulo-endothelial system (RES). Model simulations quantified unmeasured iron fluxes, previously unknown effects of treatment on FPN-level and iron stores in the RES. This mechanistic whole-body model can be the basis for future studies that incorporate iron metabolism together with related clinical experiments. Such an approach could pave the way for development of effective personalized treatment of CKD anemia. PMID:29659573

Simulating Limb Formation in the U.S. EPA Virtual Embryo - Risk Assessment Project

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA’s Virtual Embryo project (v-Embryo™) is a computer model simulation of morphogenesis that integrates cell and molecular level data from mechanistic and in vitro assays with knowledge about normal development processes to assess in silico the effects of chemicals on d...

A dynamic and mechanistic model of PCB bioaccumulation in the European hake ( Merluccius merluccius)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodiguel, Xavier; Maury, Olivier; Mellon-Duval, Capucine; Roupsard, François; Le Guellec, Anne-Marie; Loizeau, Véronique

2009-08-01

Bioaccumulation is difficult to document because responses differ among chemical compounds, with environmental conditions, and physiological processes characteristic of each species. We use a mechanistic model, based on the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory, to take into account this complexity and study factors impacting accumulation of organic pollutants in fish through ontogeny. The bioaccumulation model proposed is a comprehensive approach that relates evolution of hake PCB contamination to physiological information about the fish, such as diet, metabolism, reserve and reproduction status. The species studied is the European hake ( Merluccius merluccius, L. 1758). The model is applied to study the total concentration and the lipid normalised concentration of 4 PCB congeners in male and female hakes from the Gulf of Lions (NW Mediterranean sea) and the Bay of Biscay (NE Atlantic ocean). Outputs of the model compare consistently to measurements over the life span of fish. Simulation results clearly demonstrate the relative effects of food contamination, growth and reproduction on the PCB bioaccumulation in hake. The same species living in different habitats and exposed to different PCB prey concentrations exhibit marked difference in the body accumulation of PCBs. At the adult stage, female hakes have a lower PCB concentration compared to males for a given length. We successfully simulated these sex-specific PCB concentrations by considering two mechanisms: a higher energy allocation to growth for females and a transfer of PCBs from the female to its eggs when allocating lipids from reserve to eggs. Finally, by its mechanistic description of physiological processes, the model is relevant for other species and sets the stage for a mechanistic understanding of toxicity and ecological effects of organic contaminants in marine organisms.

Refined pipe theory for mechanistic modeling of wood development.

PubMed

Deckmyn, Gaby; Evans, Sam P; Randle, Tim J

2006-06-01

We present a mechanistic model of wood tissue development in response to changes in competition, management and climate. The model is based on a refinement of the pipe theory, where the constant ratio between sapwood and leaf area (pipe theory) is replaced by a ratio between pipe conductivity and leaf area. Simulated pipe conductivity changes with age, stand density and climate in response to changes in allocation or pipe radius, or both. The central equation of the model, which calculates the ratio of carbon (C) allocated to leaves and pipes, can be parameterized to describe the contrasting stem conductivity behavior of different tree species: from constant stem conductivity (functional homeostasis hypothesis) to height-related reduction in stem conductivity with age (hydraulic limitation hypothesis). The model simulates the daily growth of pipes (vessels or tracheids), fibers and parenchyma as well as vessel size and simulates the wood density profile and the earlywood to latewood ratio from these data. Initial runs indicate the model yields realistic seasonal changes in pipe radius (decreasing pipe radius from spring to autumn) and wood density, as well as realistic differences associated with the competitive status of trees (denser wood in suppressed trees).

Computational Modeling of Inflammation and Wound Healing

PubMed Central

Ziraldo, Cordelia; Mi, Qi; An, Gary; Vodovotz, Yoram

2013-01-01

Objective Inflammation is both central to proper wound healing and a key driver of chronic tissue injury via a positive-feedback loop incited by incidental cell damage. We seek to derive actionable insights into the role of inflammation in wound healing in order to improve outcomes for individual patients. Approach To date, dynamic computational models have been used to study the time evolution of inflammation in wound healing. Emerging clinical data on histo-pathological and macroscopic images of evolving wounds, as well as noninvasive measures of blood flow, suggested the need for tissue-realistic, agent-based, and hybrid mechanistic computational simulations of inflammation and wound healing. Innovation We developed a computational modeling system, Simple Platform for Agent-based Representation of Knowledge, to facilitate the construction of tissue-realistic models. Results A hybrid equation–agent-based model (ABM) of pressure ulcer formation in both spinal cord-injured and -uninjured patients was used to identify control points that reduce stress caused by tissue ischemia/reperfusion. An ABM of arterial restenosis revealed new dynamics of cell migration during neointimal hyperplasia that match histological features, but contradict the currently prevailing mechanistic hypothesis. ABMs of vocal fold inflammation were used to predict inflammatory trajectories in individuals, possibly allowing for personalized treatment. Conclusions The intertwined inflammatory and wound healing responses can be modeled computationally to make predictions in individuals, simulate therapies, and gain mechanistic insights. PMID:24527362

In Silico, Experimental, Mechanistic Model for Extended-Release Felodipine Disposition Exhibiting Complex Absorption and a Highly Variable Food Interaction

PubMed Central

Kim, Sean H. J.; Jackson, Andre J.; Hunt, C. Anthony

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to develop and explore new, in silico experimental methods for deciphering complex, highly variable absorption and food interaction pharmacokinetics observed for a modified-release drug product. Toward that aim, we constructed an executable software analog of study participants to whom product was administered orally. The analog is an object- and agent-oriented, discrete event system, which consists of grid spaces and event mechanisms that map abstractly to different physiological features and processes. Analog mechanisms were made sufficiently complicated to achieve prespecified similarity criteria. An equation-based gastrointestinal transit model with nonlinear mixed effects analysis provided a standard for comparison. Subject-specific parameterizations enabled each executed analog’s plasma profile to mimic features of the corresponding six individual pairs of subject plasma profiles. All achieved prespecified, quantitative similarity criteria, and outperformed the gastrointestinal transit model estimations. We observed important subject-specific interactions within the simulation and mechanistic differences between the two models. We hypothesize that mechanisms, events, and their causes occurring during simulations had counterparts within the food interaction study: they are working, evolvable, concrete theories of dynamic interactions occurring within individual subjects. The approach presented provides new, experimental strategies for unraveling the mechanistic basis of complex pharmacological interactions and observed variability. PMID:25268237

Observational and Modeling Studies of Radiative, Chemical, and Dynamical Interactions in the Earth''s Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salby, Murry

1998-01-01

A 3-dimensional model was developed to support mechanistic studies. The model solves the global primitive equations in isentropic coordinates, which directly characterize diabatic processes forcing the Brewer-Dobson circulation of the middle atmosphere. It's numerical formulation is based on Hough harmonics, which partition horizontal motion into its rotational and divergent components. These computational features, along with others, enable 3D integrations to be performed practically on RISC computer architecture, on which they can be iterated to support mechanistic studies. The model conserves potential vorticity quite accurately under adiabatic conditions. Forced by observed tropospheric structure, in which integrations are anchored, the model generates a diabatic circulation that is consistent with satellite observations of tracer behavior and diabatic cooling rates. The model includes a basic but fairly complete treatment of gas-phase photochemistry that represents some 20 chemical species and 50 governing reactions with diurnally-varying shortwave absorption. The model thus provides a reliable framework to study transport and underlying diabatic processes, which can then be compared against chemical and dynamical structure observed and in GCM integrations. Integrations with the Langley GCM were performed to diagnose feedback between simulated convection and the tropical circulation. These were studied in relation to tropospheric properties controlling moisture convergence and environmental conditions supporting deep convection, for comparison against mechanistic integrations of wave CISK that successfully reproduce the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) of the tropical circulation. These comparisons were aimed at identifying and ultimately improving aspects of the convective simulation, with the objective of recovering a successful simulation of the MJO in the Langley GCM, behavior that should be important to budgets of upper-tropospheric water vapor and chemical species.

A mechanistic diagnosis of the simulation of soil CO2 efflux of the ACME Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Wang, G.; Gu, L.; Hanson, P. J.; Mayes, M. A.

2017-12-01

Accurate simulation of the CO2 efflux from soils (i.e., soil respiration) to the atmosphere is critical to project global biogeochemical cycles and the magnitude of climate change in Earth system models (ESMs). Currently, the simulated soil respiration by ESMs still have a large uncertainty. In this study, a mechanistic diagnosis of soil respiration in the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) Land Model (ALM) was conducted using long-term observations at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) forest site in the central U.S. The results showed that the ALM default run significantly underestimated annual soil respiration and gross primary production (GPP), while incorrectly estimating soil water potential. Improved simulations of soil water potential with site-specific data significantly improved the modeled annual soil respiration, primarily because annual GPP was simultaneously improved. Therefore, accurate simulations of soil water potential must be carefully calibrated in ESMs. Despite improved annual soil respiration, the ALM continued to underestimate soil respiration during peak growing seasons, and to overestimate soil respiration during non-peak growing seasons. Simulations involving increased GPP during peak growing seasons increased soil respiration, while neither improved plant phenology nor increased temperature sensitivity affected the simulation of soil respiration during non-peak growing seasons. One potential reason for the overestimation of the soil respiration during non-peak growing seasons may be that the current model structure is substrate-limited, while microbial dormancy under stress may cause the system to become decomposer-limited. Further studies with more microbial data are required to provide adequate representation of soil respiration and to understand the underlying reasons for inaccurate model simulations.

Pharmacometric Models for Characterizing the Pharmacokinetics of Orally Inhaled Drugs.

PubMed

Borghardt, Jens Markus; Weber, Benjamin; Staab, Alexander; Kloft, Charlotte

2015-07-01

During the last decades, the importance of modeling and simulation in clinical drug development, with the goal to qualitatively and quantitatively assess and understand mechanisms of pharmacokinetic processes, has strongly increased. However, this increase could not equally be observed for orally inhaled drugs. The objectives of this review are to understand the reasons for this gap and to demonstrate the opportunities that mathematical modeling of pharmacokinetics of orally inhaled drugs offers. To achieve these objectives, this review (i) discusses pulmonary physiological processes and their impact on the pharmacokinetics after drug inhalation, (ii) provides a comprehensive overview of published pharmacokinetic models, (iii) categorizes these models into physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) and (clinical data-derived) empirical models, (iv) explores both their (mechanistic) plausibility, and (v) addresses critical aspects of different pharmacometric approaches pertinent for drug inhalation. In summary, pulmonary deposition, dissolution, and absorption are highly complex processes and may represent the major challenge for modeling and simulation of PK after oral drug inhalation. Challenges in relating systemic pharmacokinetics with pulmonary efficacy may be another factor contributing to the limited number of existing pharmacokinetic models for orally inhaled drugs. Investigations comprising in vitro experiments, clinical studies, and more sophisticated mathematical approaches are considered to be necessary for elucidating these highly complex pulmonary processes. With this additional knowledge, the PBPK approach might gain additional attractiveness. Currently, (semi-)mechanistic modeling offers an alternative to generate and investigate hypotheses and to more mechanistically understand the pulmonary and systemic pharmacokinetics after oral drug inhalation including the impact of pulmonary diseases.

A climate-driven mechanistic population model of Aedes albopictus with diapause.

PubMed

Jia, Pengfei; Lu, Liang; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Guo, Li; Yu, Xiao; Liu, Qiyong

2016-03-24

The mosquito Aedes albopitus is a competent vector for the transmission of many blood-borne pathogens. An important factor that affects the mosquitoes' development and spreading is climate, such as temperature, precipitation and photoperiod. Existing climate-driven mechanistic models overlook the seasonal pattern of diapause, referred to as the survival strategy of mosquito eggs being dormant and unable to hatch under extreme weather. With respect to diapause, several issues remain unaddressed, including identifying the time when diapause eggs are laid and hatched under different climatic conditions, demarcating the thresholds of diapause and non-diapause periods, and considering the mortality rate of diapause eggs. Here we propose a generic climate-driven mechanistic population model of Ae. albopitus applicable to most Ae. albopictus-colonized areas. The new model is an improvement over the previous work by incorporating the diapause behaviors with many modifications to the stage-specific mechanism of the mosquitoes' life-cycle. monthly Container Index (CI) of Ae. albopitus collected in two Chinese cities, Guangzhou and Shanghai is used for model validation. The simulation results by the proposed model is validated with entomological field data by the Pearson correlation coefficient r (2) in Guangzhou (r (2) = 0.84) and in Shanghai (r (2) = 0.90). In addition, by consolidating the effect of diapause-related adjustments and temperature-related parameters in the model, the improvement is significant over the basic model. The model highlights the importance of considering diapause in simulating Ae. albopitus population. It also corroborates that temperature and photoperiod are significant in affecting the population dynamics of the mosquito. By refining the relationship between Ae. albopitus population and climatic factors, the model serves to establish a mechanistic relation to the growth and decline of the species. Understanding this relationship in a better way will benefit studying the transmission and the spatiotemporal distribution of mosquito-borne epidemics and eventually facilitating the early warning and control of the diseases.

Mechanistic materials modeling for nuclear fuel performance

DOE PAGES

Tonks, Michael R.; Andersson, David; Phillpot, Simon R.; ...

2017-03-15

Fuel performance codes are critical tools for the design, certification, and safety analysis of nuclear reactors. However, their ability to predict fuel behavior under abnormal conditions is severely limited by their considerable reliance on empirical materials models correlated to burn-up (a measure of the number of fission events that have occurred, but not a unique measure of the history of the material). In this paper, we propose a different paradigm for fuel performance codes to employ mechanistic materials models that are based on the current state of the evolving microstructure rather than burn-up. In this approach, a series of statemore » variables are stored at material points and define the current state of the microstructure. The evolution of these state variables is defined by mechanistic models that are functions of fuel conditions and other state variables. The material properties of the fuel and cladding are determined from microstructure/property relationships that are functions of the state variables and the current fuel conditions. Multiscale modeling and simulation is being used in conjunction with experimental data to inform the development of these models. Finally, this mechanistic, microstructure-based approach has the potential to provide a more predictive fuel performance capability, but will require a team of researchers to complete the required development and to validate the approach.« less

Global scale analysis and evaluation of an improved mechanistic representation of plant nitrogen and carbon dynamics in the Community Land Model (CLM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghimire, B.; Riley, W. J.; Koven, C. D.; Randerson, J. T.; Mu, M.; Kattge, J.; Rogers, A.; Reich, P. B.

2014-12-01

In many ecosystems, nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for plant growth and productivity. However mechanistic representation of nitrogen uptake linked to root traits, and functional nitrogen allocation among different leaf enzymes involved in respiration and photosynthesis is currently lacking in Earth System models. The linkage between nitrogen availability and plant productivity is simplistically represented by potential photosynthesis rates, and is subsequently downregulated depending on nitrogen supply and other nitrogen consumers in the model (e.g., nitrification). This type of potential photosynthesis rate calculation is problematic for several reasons. Firstly, plants do not photosynthesize at potential rates and then downregulate. Secondly, there is considerable subjectivity on the meaning of potential photosynthesis rates. Thirdly, there exists lack of understanding on modeling these potential photosynthesis rates in a changing climate. In addition to model structural issues in representing photosynthesis rates, the role of plant roots in nutrient acquisition have been largely ignored in Earth System models. For example, in CLM4.5, nitrogen uptake is linked to leaf level processes (e.g., primarily productivity) rather than root scale process involved in nitrogen uptake. We present a new plant model for CLM with an improved mechanistic presentation of plant nitrogen uptake based on root scale Michaelis Menten kinetics, and stronger linkages between leaf nitrogen and plant productivity by inferring relationships observed in global databases of plant traits (including the TRY database and several individual studies). We also incorporate improved representation of plant nitrogen leaf allocation, especially in tropical regions where significant over-prediction of plant growth and productivity in CLM4.5 simulations exist. We evaluate our improved global model simulations using the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) framework. We conclude that mechanistic representation of leaf-level nitrogen allocation and a theoretically consistent treatment of competition with belowground consumers leads to overall improvements in CLM4.5's global carbon cycling predictions.

How to make a tree ring: Coupling stem water flow and cambial activity in mature Alpine conifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Richard L.; Frank, David C.; Treydte, Kerstin; Steppe, Kathy; Kahmen, Ansgar; Fonti, Patrick

2017-04-01

Inter-annual tree-ring measurements are used to understand tree-growth responses to climatic variability and reconstruct past climate conditions. In parallel, mechanistic models use experimentally defined plant-atmosphere interactions to explain past growth responses and predict future environmental impact on forest productivity. Yet, substantial inconsistencies within mechanistic model ensembles and mismatches with empirical data indicate that significant progress is still needed to understand the processes occurring at an intra-annual resolution that drive annual growth. However, challenges arise due to i) few datasets describing climatic responses of high-resolution physiological processes over longer time-scales, ii) uncertainties on the main mechanistic process limiting radial stem growth and iii) complex interactions between multiple environmental factors which obscure detection of the main stem growth driver, generating a gap between our understanding of intra- and inter-annual growth mechanisms. We attempt to bridge the gap between inter-annual tree-ring width and sub-daily radial stem-growth and provide a mechanistic perspective on how environmental conditions affect physiological processes that shape tree rings in conifers. We combine sub-hourly sap flow and point dendrometer measurements performed on mature Alpine conifers (Larix decidua) into an individual-based mechanistic tree-growth model to simulate sub-hourly cambial activity. The monitored trees are located along a high elevational transect in the Swiss Alps (Lötschental) to analyse the effect of increasing temperature. The model quantifies internal tree hydraulic pathways that regulate the turgidity within the cambial zone and induce cell enlargement for radial growth. The simulations are validated against intra-annual growth patterns derived from xylogenesis data and anatomical analyses. Our efforts advance the process-based understanding of how climate shapes the annual tree-ring structures and could potentially improve our ability to reconstruct the climate of the past and predict future growth under changing climate.

STOCHASTIC SIMULATION OF FIELD-SCALE PESTICIDE TRANSPORT USING OPUS AND GLEAMS

EPA Science Inventory

Incorporating variability in soil and chemical properties into root zone leaching models should provide a better representation of pollutant distribution in natural field conditions. Our objective was to determine if a more mechanistic rate-based model (Opus) would predict soil w...

Critical evaluation of mechanistic two-phase flow pipeline and well simulation models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dhulesia, H.; Lopez, D.

1996-12-31

Mechanistic steady state simulation models, rather than empirical correlations, are used for a design of multiphase production system including well, pipeline and downstream installations. Among the available models, PEPITE, WELLSIM, OLGA, TACITE and TUFFP are widely used for this purpose and consequently, a critical evaluation of these models is needed. An extensive validation methodology is proposed which consists of two distinct steps: first to validate the hydrodynamic point model using the test loop data and, then to validate the over-all simulation model using the real pipelines and wells data. The test loop databank used in this analysis contains about 5952more » data sets originated from four different test loops and a majority of these data are obtained at high pressures (up to 90 bars) with real hydrocarbon fluids. Before performing the model evaluation, physical analysis of the test loops data is required to eliminate non-coherent data. The evaluation of these point models demonstrates that the TACITE and OLGA models can be applied to any configuration of pipes. The TACITE model performs better than the OLGA model because it uses the most appropriate closure laws from the literature validated on a large number of data. The comparison of predicted and measured pressure drop for various real pipelines and wells demonstrates that the TACITE model is a reliable tool.« less

Simulating Mercury And Methyl Mercury Stream Concentrations At Multiple Scales in a Wetland Influenced Coastal Plain Watershed (McTier Creek, SC, USA)

EPA Science Inventory

Use of Mechanistic Models to?Improve Understanding: Differential, mass balance, process-based Spatial and temporal resolution Necessary simplifications of system complexity Combing field monitoring and modeling efforts Balance between capturing complexity and maintaining...

Simulation of Plant Physiological Process Using Fuzzy Variables

Treesearch

Daniel L. Schmoldt

1991-01-01

Qualitative modelling can help us understand and project effects of multiple stresses on trees. It is not practical to collect and correlate empirical data for all combinations of plant/environments and human/climate stresses, especially for mature trees in natural settings. Therefore, a mechanistic model was developed to describe ecophysiological processes. This model...

A mechanistic pharmacokinetic model to assess modified oral drug bioavailability post bariatric surgery in morbidly obese patients: interplay between CYP3A gut wall metabolism, permeability and dissolution.

PubMed

Darwich, Adam S; Pade, Devendra; Ammori, Basil J; Jamei, Masoud; Ashcroft, Darren M; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin

2012-07-01

Due to the multi-factorial physiological implications of bariatric surgery, attempts to explain trends in oral bioavailability following bariatric surgery using singular attributes of drugs or simplified categorisations such as the biopharmaceutics classification system have been unsuccessful. So we have attempted to use mechanistic models to assess changes to bioavailability of model drugs. Pharmacokinetic post bariatric surgery models were created for Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, biliopancreatic diversion with duodenal switch, sleeve gastrectomy and jejunoileal bypass, through altering the 'Advanced Dissolution Absorption and Metabolism' (ADAM) model incorporated into the Simcyp® Simulator. Post to pre surgical simulations were carried out for five drugs with varying characteristics regarding their gut wall metabolism, dissolution and permeability (simvastatin, omeprazole, diclofenac, fluconazole and ciprofloxacin). The trends in oral bioavailability pre to post surgery were found to be dependent on a combination of drug parameters, including solubility, permeability and gastrointestinal metabolism as well as the surgical procedure carried out. In the absence of clinical studies, the ability to project the direction and the magnitude of changes in bioavailability of drug therapy, using evidence-based mechanistic pharmacokinetic in silico models would be of significant value in guiding prescribers to make the necessary adjustments to dosage regimens for an increasing population of patients who are undergoing bariatric surgery. © 2012 The Authors. JPP © 2012 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

Leatherbacks swimming in silico: modeling and verifying their momentum and heat balance using computational fluid dynamics.

PubMed

Dudley, Peter N; Bonazza, Riccardo; Jones, T Todd; Wyneken, Jeanette; Porter, Warren P

2014-01-01

As global temperatures increase throughout the coming decades, species ranges will shift. New combinations of abiotic conditions will make predicting these range shifts difficult. Biophysical mechanistic niche modeling places bounds on an animal's niche through analyzing the animal's physical interactions with the environment. Biophysical mechanistic niche modeling is flexible enough to accommodate these new combinations of abiotic conditions. However, this approach is difficult to implement for aquatic species because of complex interactions among thrust, metabolic rate and heat transfer. We use contemporary computational fluid dynamic techniques to overcome these difficulties. We model the complex 3D motion of a swimming neonate and juvenile leatherback sea turtle to find power and heat transfer rates during the stroke. We combine the results from these simulations and a numerical model to accurately predict the core temperature of a swimming leatherback. These results are the first steps in developing a highly accurate mechanistic niche model, which can assists paleontologist in understanding biogeographic shifts as well as aid contemporary species managers about potential range shifts over the coming decades.

Development and Implementation of Mechanistic Terry Turbine Models in RELAP-7 to Simulate RCIC Normal Operation Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Haihua; Zou, Ling; Zhang, Hongbin

As part of the efforts to understand the unexpected “self-regulating” mode of the RCIC (Reactor Core Isolation Cooling) systems in Fukushima accidents and extend BWR RCIC and PWR AFW (Auxiliary Feed Water) operational range and flexibility, mechanistic models for the Terry turbine, based on Sandia’s original work [1], have been developed and implemented in the RELAP-7 code to simulate the RCIC system. In 2016, our effort has been focused on normal working conditions of the RCIC system. More complex off-design conditions will be pursued in later years when more data are available. In the Sandia model, the turbine stator inletmore » velocity is provided according to a reduced-order model which was obtained from a large number of CFD (computational fluid dynamics) simulations. In this work, we propose an alternative method, using an under-expanded jet model to obtain the velocity and thermodynamic conditions for the turbine stator inlet. The models include both an adiabatic expansion process inside the nozzle and a free expansion process outside of the nozzle to ambient pressure. The combined models are able to predict the steam mass flow rate and supersonic velocity to the Terry turbine bucket entrance, which are the necessary input information for the Terry turbine rotor model. The analytical models for the nozzle were validated with experimental data and benchmarked with CFD simulations. The analytical models generally agree well with the experimental data and CFD simulations. The analytical models are suitable for implementation into a reactor system analysis code or severe accident code as part of mechanistic and dynamical models to understand the RCIC behaviors. The newly developed nozzle models and modified turbine rotor model according to the Sandia’s original work have been implemented into RELAP-7, along with the original Sandia Terry turbine model. A new pump model has also been developed and implemented to couple with the Terry turbine model. An input model was developed to test the Terry turbine RCIC system, which generates reasonable results. Both the INL RCIC model and the Sandia RCIC model produce results matching major rated parameters such as the rotational speed, pump torque, and the turbine shaft work for the normal operation condition. The Sandia model is more sensitive to the turbine outlet pressure than the INL model. The next step will be further refining the Terry turbine models by including two-phase flow cases so that off-design conditions can be simulated. The pump model could also be enhanced with the use of the homologous curves.« less

Guidelines for Implementing NCHRP 1-37A M-E Design Procedures in Ohio : Volume 4 -- MEPDG Models Validation & Recalibration

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-11-01

The development of the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) under National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) projects 1-37A and 1-40D has significantly improved the ability of pavement designers to model and simulate the eff...

Coupling machine learning with mechanistic models to study runoff production and river flow at the hillslope scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marçais, J.; Gupta, H. V.; De Dreuzy, J. R.; Troch, P. A. A.

2016-12-01

Geomorphological structure and geological heterogeneity of hillslopes are major controls on runoff responses. The diversity of hillslopes (morphological shapes and geological structures) on one hand, and the highly non linear runoff mechanism response on the other hand, make it difficult to transpose what has been learnt at one specific hillslope to another. Therefore, making reliable predictions on runoff appearance or river flow for a given hillslope is a challenge. Applying a classic model calibration (based on inverse problems technique) requires doing it for each specific hillslope and having some data available for calibration. When applied to thousands of cases it cannot always be promoted. Here we propose a novel modeling framework based on coupling process based models with data based approach. First we develop a mechanistic model, based on hillslope storage Boussinesq equations (Troch et al. 2003), able to model non linear runoff responses to rainfall at the hillslope scale. Second we set up a model database, representing thousands of non calibrated simulations. These simulations investigate different hillslope shapes (real ones obtained by analyzing 5m digital elevation model of Brittany and synthetic ones), different hillslope geological structures (i.e. different parametrizations) and different hydrologic forcing terms (i.e. different infiltration chronicles). Then, we use this model library to train a machine learning model on this physically based database. Machine learning model performance is then assessed by a classic validating phase (testing it on new hillslopes and comparing machine learning with mechanistic outputs). Finally we use this machine learning model to learn what are the hillslope properties controlling runoffs. This methodology will be further tested combining synthetic datasets with real ones.

Simulating 2,368 temperate lakes reveals weak coherence in stratification phenology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Read, Jordan S.; Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Van Den Hoek, Jamon; Hanson, Paul C.; Bruce, Louise C; Markfort, Corey D.

2014-01-01

Changes in water temperatures resulting from climate warming can alter the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Lake-specific physical characteristics may play a role in mediating individual lake responses to climate. Past mechanistic studies of lake-climate interactions have simulated generic lake classes at large spatial scales or performed detailed analyses of small numbers of real lakes. Understanding the diversity of lake responses to climate change across landscapes requires a hybrid approach that couples site-specific lake characteristics with broad-scale environmental drivers. This study provides a substantial advancement in lake ecosystem modeling by combining open-source tools with freely available continental-scale data to mechanistically model daily temperatures for 2,368 Wisconsin lakes over three decades (1979-2011). The model accurately predicted observed surface layer temperatures (RMSE: 1.74°C) and the presence/absence of stratification (81.1% agreement). Among-lake coherence was strong for surface temperatures and weak for the timing of stratification, suggesting individual lake characteristics mediate some - but not all - ecologically relevant lake responses to climate.

Improving Interpretation of New and Old Serum Biomarkers of Drug-Induced Liver Injury Through Mechanistic Modeling.

PubMed

Watkins, Paul B

2018-04-26

The study by Mason et al. in this issue used mechanistic modeling and simulation to address how both the dose of acetaminophen consumed and the time since ingestion can be estimated from biomarkers measured in a single serum sample in mice. Translation into the clinic would potentially be an advance in the treatment of acetaminophen poisoning. Importantly, this approach could transform the evaluation of liver safety in clinical trials of new drug candidates. © 2018 The Authors CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

VIC-CropSyst-v2: A regional-scale modeling platform to simulate the nexus of climate, hydrology, cropping systems, and human decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Keyvan; Stöckle, Claudio; Chinnayakanahalli, Kiran; Nelson, Roger; Liu, Mingliang; Rajagopalan, Kirti; Barik, Muhammad; Adam, Jennifer C.

2017-08-01

Food supply is affected by a complex nexus of land, atmosphere, and human processes, including short- and long-term stressors (e.g., drought and climate change, respectively). A simulation platform that captures these complex elements can be used to inform policy and best management practices to promote sustainable agriculture. We have developed a tightly coupled framework using the macroscale variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and the CropSyst agricultural model. A mechanistic irrigation module was also developed for inclusion in this framework. Because VIC-CropSyst combines two widely used and mechanistic models (for crop phenology, growth, management, and macroscale hydrology), it can provide realistic and hydrologically consistent simulations of water availability, crop water requirements for irrigation, and agricultural productivity for both irrigated and dryland systems. This allows VIC-CropSyst to provide managers and decision makers with reliable information on regional water stresses and their impacts on food production. Additionally, VIC-CropSyst is being used in conjunction with socioeconomic models, river system models, and atmospheric models to simulate feedback processes between regional water availability, agricultural water management decisions, and land-atmosphere interactions. The performance of VIC-CropSyst was evaluated on both regional (over the US Pacific Northwest) and point scales. Point-scale evaluation involved using two flux tower sites located in agricultural fields in the US (Nebraska and Illinois). The agreement between recorded and simulated evapotranspiration (ET), applied irrigation water, soil moisture, leaf area index (LAI), and yield indicated that, although the model is intended to work on regional scales, it also captures field-scale processes in agricultural areas.

Addressing the translational dilemma: dynamic knowledge representation of inflammation using agent-based modeling.

PubMed

An, Gary; Christley, Scott

2012-01-01

Given the panoply of system-level diseases that result from disordered inflammation, such as sepsis, atherosclerosis, cancer, and autoimmune disorders, understanding and characterizing the inflammatory response is a key target of biomedical research. Untangling the complex behavioral configurations associated with a process as ubiquitous as inflammation represents a prototype of the translational dilemma: the ability to translate mechanistic knowledge into effective therapeutics. A critical failure point in the current research environment is a throughput bottleneck at the level of evaluating hypotheses of mechanistic causality; these hypotheses represent the key step toward the application of knowledge for therapy development and design. Addressing the translational dilemma will require utilizing the ever-increasing power of computers and computational modeling to increase the efficiency of the scientific method in the identification and evaluation of hypotheses of mechanistic causality. More specifically, development needs to focus on facilitating the ability of non-computer trained biomedical researchers to utilize and instantiate their knowledge in dynamic computational models. This is termed "dynamic knowledge representation." Agent-based modeling is an object-oriented, discrete-event, rule-based simulation method that is well suited for biomedical dynamic knowledge representation. Agent-based modeling has been used in the study of inflammation at multiple scales. The ability of agent-based modeling to encompass multiple scales of biological process as well as spatial considerations, coupled with an intuitive modeling paradigm, suggest that this modeling framework is well suited for addressing the translational dilemma. This review describes agent-based modeling, gives examples of its applications in the study of inflammation, and introduces a proposed general expansion of the use of modeling and simulation to augment the generation and evaluation of knowledge by the biomedical research community at large.

Development of Macroscale Models of UO 2 Fuel Sintering and Densification using Multiscale Modeling and Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greenquist, Ian; Tonks, Michael

2016-10-01

Light water reactor fuel pellets are fabricated using sintering to final densities of 95% or greater. During reactor operation, the porosity remaining in the fuel after fabrication decreases further due to irradiation-assisted densification. While empirical models have been developed to describe this densification process, a mechanistic model is needed as part of the ongoing work by the NEAMS program to develop a more predictive fuel performance code. In this work we will develop a phase field model of sintering of UO 2 in the MARMOT code, and validate it by comparing to published sintering data. We will then add themore » capability to capture irradiation effects into the model, and use it to develop a mechanistic model of densification that will go into the BISON code and add another essential piece to the microstructure-based materials models. The final step will be to add the effects of applied fields, to model field-assisted sintering of UO 2. The results of the phase field model will be validated by comparing to data from field-assisted sintering. Tasks over three years: 1. Develop a sintering model for UO 2 in MARMOT 2. Expand model to account for irradiation effects 3. Develop a mechanistic macroscale model of densification for BISON« less

Modeling phosphorus capture by plants growing in a multi-species riparian buffer

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The NST 3.0 mechanistic nutrient uptake model was used to explore phosphorus (P) uptake to a depth of 120 cm over a 126-d growing season in simulated buffer communities composed of mixtures of cottonwood (Populus deltoids Bartr.), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), and smooth brome (Bromis inermis L...

Comparison of Two-Phase Pipe Flow in OpenFOAM with a Mechanistic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuard, Adrian M.; Mahmud, Hisham B.; King, Andrew J.

2016-03-01

Two-phase pipe flow is a common occurrence in many industrial applications such as power generation and oil and gas transportation. Accurate prediction of liquid holdup and pressure drop is of vast importance to ensure effective design and operation of fluid transport systems. In this paper, a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) study of a two-phase flow of air and water is performed using OpenFOAM. The two-phase solver, interFoam is used to identify flow patterns and generate values of liquid holdup and pressure drop, which are compared to results obtained from a two-phase mechanistic model developed by Petalas and Aziz (2002). A total of 60 simulations have been performed at three separate pipe inclinations of 0°, +10° and -10° respectively. A three dimensional, 0.052m diameter pipe of 4m length is used with the Shear Stress Transport (SST) k - ɷ turbulence model to solve the turbulent mixtures of air and water. Results show that the flow pattern behaviour and numerical values of liquid holdup and pressure drop compare reasonably well to the mechanistic model.

Diversity in plant hydraulic traits explains seasonal and inter-annual variations of vegetation dynamics in seasonally dry tropical forests.

PubMed

Xu, Xiangtao; Medvigy, David; Powers, Jennifer S; Becknell, Justin M; Guan, Kaiyu

2016-10-01

We assessed whether diversity in plant hydraulic traits can explain the observed diversity in plant responses to water stress in seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs). The Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) was updated with a trait-driven mechanistic plant hydraulic module, as well as novel drought-phenology and plant water stress schemes. Four plant functional types were parameterized on the basis of meta-analysis of plant hydraulic traits. Simulations from both the original and the updated ED2 were evaluated against 5 yr of field data from a Costa Rican SDTF site and remote-sensing data over Central America. The updated model generated realistic plant hydraulic dynamics, such as leaf water potential and stem sap flow. Compared with the original ED2, predictions from our novel trait-driven model matched better with observed growth, phenology and their variations among functional groups. Most notably, the original ED2 produced unrealistically small leaf area index (LAI) and underestimated cumulative leaf litter. Both of these biases were corrected by the updated model. The updated model was also better able to simulate spatial patterns of LAI dynamics in Central America. Plant hydraulic traits are intercorrelated in SDTFs. Mechanistic incorporation of plant hydraulic traits is necessary for the simulation of spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation dynamics in SDTFs in vegetation models. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Progress toward bridging from atomistic to continuum modeling to predict nuclear waste glass dissolution.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zapol, Peter; Bourg, Ian; Criscenti, Louise Jacqueline

2011-10-01

This report summarizes research performed for the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Subcontinuum and Upscaling Task. The work conducted focused on developing a roadmap to include molecular scale, mechanistic information in continuum-scale models of nuclear waste glass dissolution. This information is derived from molecular-scale modeling efforts that are validated through comparison with experimental data. In addition to developing a master plan to incorporate a subcontinuum mechanistic understanding of glass dissolution into continuum models, methods were developed to generate constitutive dissolution rate expressions from quantum calculations, force field models were selected to generate multicomponent glass structures and gel layers,more » classical molecular modeling was used to study diffusion through nanopores analogous to those in the interfacial gel layer, and a micro-continuum model (K{mu}C) was developed to study coupled diffusion and reaction at the glass-gel-solution interface.« less

Application of tissue time course data to elucidate mechanistic details of carbon tetrachloride (CC14) transport using an updated physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model in rats

EPA Science Inventory

CCl4 is a common environmental contaminant in water and superfund sites, and a model liver toxicant. One application of PBPK models used in risk assessment is simulation of internal dose for the metric involved with toxicity, particularly for different routes of exposure. Time-co...

Application of the coastal generalized ecosystem model (CGEM) to assess the impacts of a potential future climate scenario on northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxia

EPA Science Inventory

Mechanistic hypoxia models for the northern Gulf of Mexico are being used to guide policy goals for Mississippi River nutrient loading reductions. However, to date, these models have not examined the effects of both nutrient loads and future climate. Here, we simulate a future c...

Dynamic, mechanistic, molecular-level modelling of cyanobacteria: Anabaena and nitrogen interaction.

PubMed

Hellweger, Ferdi L; Fredrick, Neil D; McCarthy, Mark J; Gardner, Wayne S; Wilhelm, Steven W; Paerl, Hans W

2016-09-01

Phytoplankton (eutrophication, biogeochemical) models are important tools for ecosystem research and management, but they generally have not been updated to include modern biology. Here, we present a dynamic, mechanistic, molecular-level (i.e. gene, transcript, protein, metabolite) model of Anabaena - nitrogen interaction. The model was developed using the pattern-oriented approach to model definition and parameterization of complex agent-based models. It simulates individual filaments, each with individual cells, each with genes that are expressed to yield transcripts and proteins. Cells metabolize various forms of N, grow and divide, and differentiate heterocysts when fixed N is depleted. The model is informed by observations from 269 laboratory experiments from 55 papers published from 1942 to 2014. Within this database, we identified 331 emerging patterns, and, excluding inconsistencies in observations, the model reproduces 94% of them. To explore a practical application, we used the model to simulate nutrient reduction scenarios for a hypothetical lake. For a 50% N only loading reduction, the model predicts that N fixation increases, but this fixed N does not compensate for the loading reduction, and the chlorophyll a concentration decreases substantially (by 33%). When N is reduced along with P, the model predicts an additional 8% reduction (compared to P only). © 2016 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fitting mechanistic epidemic models to data: A comparison of simple Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches.

PubMed

Li, Michael; Dushoff, Jonathan; Bolker, Benjamin M

2018-07-01

Simple mechanistic epidemic models are widely used for forecasting and parameter estimation of infectious diseases based on noisy case reporting data. Despite the widespread application of models to emerging infectious diseases, we know little about the comparative performance of standard computational-statistical frameworks in these contexts. Here we build a simple stochastic, discrete-time, discrete-state epidemic model with both process and observation error and use it to characterize the effectiveness of different flavours of Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. We use fits to simulated data, where parameters (and future behaviour) are known, to explore the limitations of different platforms and quantify parameter estimation accuracy, forecasting accuracy, and computational efficiency across combinations of modeling decisions (e.g. discrete vs. continuous latent states, levels of stochasticity) and computational platforms (JAGS, NIMBLE, Stan).

Bird Migration Under Climate Change - A Mechanistic Approach Using Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James A.; Blattner, Tim; Messmer, Peter

2010-01-01

The broad-scale reductions and shifts that may be expected under climate change in the availability and quality of stopover habitat for long-distance migrants is an area of increasing concern for conservation biologists. Researchers generally have taken two broad approaches to the modeling of migration behaviour to understand the impact of these changes on migratory bird populations. These include models based on causal processes and their response to environmental stimulation, "mechanistic models", or models that primarily are based on observed animal distribution patterns and the correlation of these patterns with environmental variables, i.e. "data driven" models. Investigators have applied the latter technique to forecast changes in migration patterns with changes in the environment, for example, as might be expected under climate change, by forecasting how the underlying environmental data layers upon which the relationships are built will change over time. The learned geostatstical correlations are then applied to the modified data layers.. However, this is problematic. Even if the projections of how the underlying data layers will change are correct, it is not evident that the statistical relationships will remain the same, i.e. that the animal organism may not adapt its' behaviour to the changing conditions. Mechanistic models that explicitly take into account the physical, biological, and behaviour responses of an organism as well as the underlying changes in the landscape offer an alternative to address these shortcomings. The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies enable the application of the mechanistic models to predict how continental bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier work, we simulated the impact of effects of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds in the central fly ways of North America. We demonstrated the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers consisting of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations using an individual based migration model driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data and biological field data. With the advent of new computing capabilities enabled hy recent GPU-GP computing paradigms and commodity hardware, it now is possible to simulate both larger ensemble populations and to incorporate more realistic mechanistic factors into migration models. Here, we take our first steps use these tools to study the impact of long-term drought variability on shorebird survival.

In Silico Modelling of Transdermal and Systemic Kinetics of Topically Applied Solutes: Model Development and Initial Validation for Transdermal Nicotine.

PubMed

Chen, Tao; Lian, Guoping; Kattou, Panayiotis

2016-07-01

The purpose was to develop a mechanistic mathematical model for predicting the pharmacokinetics of topically applied solutes penetrating through the skin and into the blood circulation. The model could be used to support the design of transdermal drug delivery systems and skin care products, and risk assessment of occupational or consumer exposure. A recently reported skin penetration model [Pharm Res 32 (2015) 1779] was integrated with the kinetic equations for dermis-to-capillary transport and systemic circulation. All model parameters were determined separately from the molecular, microscopic and physiological bases, without fitting to the in vivo data to be predicted. Published clinical studies of nicotine were used for model demonstration. The predicted plasma kinetics is in good agreement with observed clinical data. The simulated two-dimensional concentration profile in the stratum corneum vividly illustrates the local sub-cellular disposition kinetics, including tortuous lipid pathway for diffusion and the "reservoir" effect of the corneocytes. A mechanistic model for predicting transdermal and systemic kinetics was developed and demonstrated with published clinical data. The integrated mechanistic approach has significantly extended the applicability of a recently reported microscopic skin penetration model by providing prediction of solute concentration in the blood.

SynBioSS designer: a web-based tool for the automated generation of kinetic models for synthetic biological constructs

PubMed Central

Weeding, Emma; Houle, Jason

2010-01-01

Modeling tools can play an important role in synthetic biology the same way modeling helps in other engineering disciplines: simulations can quickly probe mechanisms and provide a clear picture of how different components influence the behavior of the whole. We present a brief review of available tools and present SynBioSS Designer. The Synthetic Biology Software Suite (SynBioSS) is used for the generation, storing, retrieval and quantitative simulation of synthetic biological networks. SynBioSS consists of three distinct components: the Desktop Simulator, the Wiki, and the Designer. SynBioSS Designer takes as input molecular parts involved in gene expression and regulation (e.g. promoters, transcription factors, ribosome binding sites, etc.), and automatically generates complete networks of reactions that represent transcription, translation, regulation, induction and degradation of those parts. Effectively, Designer uses DNA sequences as input and generates networks of biomolecular reactions as output. In this paper we describe how Designer uses universal principles of molecular biology to generate models of any arbitrary synthetic biological system. These models are useful as they explain biological phenotypic complexity in mechanistic terms. In turn, such mechanistic explanations can assist in designing synthetic biological systems. We also discuss, giving practical guidance to users, how Designer interfaces with the Registry of Standard Biological Parts, the de facto compendium of parts used in synthetic biology applications. PMID:20639523

Simulating soil C stability with mechanistic systems models: a multisite comparison of measured fractions and modelled pools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, Andy; Schipanski, Meagan; Sherrod, Lucretia; Ma, Liwang; Ahuja, Lajpat; McNamara, Niall; Smith, Pete; Davies, Christian

2016-04-01

Agriculture, covering more than 30% of global land area, has an exciting opportunity to help combat climate change by effectively managing its soil to promote increased C sequestration. Further, newly sequestered soil carbon (C) through agriculture needs to be stored in more stable forms in order to have a lasting impact on reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. While land uses in different climates and soils require different management strategies, the fundamental mechanisms that regulate C sequestration and stabilisation remain the same. These mechanisms are used by a number of different systems models to simulate C dynamics, and thus assess the impacts of change in management or climate. To evaluate the accuracy of these model simulations, our research uses a multidirectional approach to compare C stocks of physicochemical soil fractions collected at two long-term agricultural sites. Carbon stocks for a number of soil fractions were measured at two sites (Lincoln, UK; Colorado, USA) over 8 and 12 years, respectively. Both sites represent managed agricultural land but have notably different climates and levels of disturbance. The measured soil fractions act as proxies for varying degrees of stability, with C contained within these fractions relatable to the C simulated within the soil pools of mechanistic systems models1. Using stable isotope techniques at the UK site, specific turnover times of C within the different fractions were determined and compared with those simulated in the pools of 3 different models of varying complexity (RothC, DayCent and RZWQM2). Further, C dynamics and N-mineralisation rates of the measured fractions at the US site were assessed and compared to results of the same three models. The UK site saw a significant increase in C stocks within the most stable fractions, with topsoil (0-30cm) sequestration rates of just over 0.3 tC ha-1 yr-1 after only 8 years. Further, the sum of all fractions reported C sequestration rates of nearly 1.0 tC ha-1 yr-1. At the US site, however, topsoil C sequestration was less consistent noting considerable variation over the 12 years of measured data. Both sites showed noteworthy discrepancies when model-simulated C was compared with measured C. While all three models were able to simulate the bulk C stocks within reasonable degrees of uncertainty, the accuracy broke down considerably when this bulk soil was split into fractions/pools. Using the data collected and accounting for the differences in model structure, we present potential next steps in model development as well as the variables that should be measured when aiming to reduce the uncertainties inherent in mechanistic systems models. References 1 - Zimmermann et al., 2007. Measured soil organic matter fractions can be related to pools in the RothC model. European Journal of Soil Science, 58:658-667.

Emergent Global Patterns of Ecosystem Structure and Function from a Mechanistic General Ecosystem Model

PubMed Central

Emmott, Stephen; Hutton, Jon; Lyutsarev, Vassily; Smith, Matthew J.; Scharlemann, Jörn P. W.; Purves, Drew W.

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures. PMID:24756001

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model.

PubMed

Harfoot, Michael B J; Newbold, Tim; Tittensor, Derek P; Emmott, Stephen; Hutton, Jon; Lyutsarev, Vassily; Smith, Matthew J; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purves, Drew W

2014-04-01

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures.

Putting mechanisms into crop production models.

PubMed

Boote, Kenneth J; Jones, James W; White, Jeffrey W; Asseng, Senthold; Lizaso, Jon I

2013-09-01

Crop growth models dynamically simulate processes of C, N and water balance on daily or hourly time-steps to predict crop growth and development and at season-end, final yield. Their ability to integrate effects of genetics, environment and crop management have led to applications ranging from understanding gene function to predicting potential impacts of climate change. The history of crop models is reviewed briefly, and their level of mechanistic detail for assimilation and respiration, ranging from hourly leaf-to-canopy assimilation to daily radiation-use efficiency is discussed. Crop models have improved steadily over the past 30-40 years, but much work remains. Improvements are needed for the prediction of transpiration response to elevated CO₂ and high temperature effects on phenology and reproductive fertility, and simulation of root growth and nutrient uptake under stressful edaphic conditions. Mechanistic improvements are needed to better connect crop growth to genetics and to soil fertility, soil waterlogging and pest damage. Because crop models integrate multiple processes and consider impacts of environment and management, they have excellent potential for linking research from genomics and allied disciplines to crop responses at the field scale, thus providing a valuable tool for deciphering genotype by environment by management effects. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Biologically Informed, Mechanistic Model of Desert Shrub Population Dynamics Bearing on Arid Landscape Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worman, Stacey; Furbish, David; Fathel, Siobhan

2014-05-01

In arid landscapes, desert shrubs individually and collectively modify how sediment is transported (e.g by wind, overland-flow, and rain-splash). Addressing how desert shrubs modify landscapes on geomorphic timescales therefore necessitates spanning multiple shrub lifetimes and accounting for how processes affecting shrub dynamics on these longer timescales (e.g. fire, grazing, drought, and climate change) may in turn impact sediment transport. To fulfill this need, we present a mechanistic model of the spatiotemporal dynamics of a desert-shrub population that uses a simple accounting framework and tracks individual shrubs as they enter, age, and exit the population (via recruitment, growth, and mortality). Our model is novel insomuch as it (1) features a strong biophysical foundation, (2) mimics well-documented aspects of how shrub populations respond to changes in precipitation, and (3) possesses the process granularity appropriate for use in geomorphic simulations. In a complimentary abstract (Fathel et al. 2014), we demonstrate the potential of this biological model by coupling it to a physical model of rain-splash sediment transport: We mechanistically reproduce the empirical observation that the erosion rate of a hillslope decreases as its vegetation coverage increases and we predict erosion rates under different climate-change scenarios.

The value of mechanistic biophysical information for systems-level understanding of complex biological processes such as cytokinesis.

PubMed

Pollard, Thomas D

2014-12-02

This review illustrates the value of quantitative information including concentrations, kinetic constants and equilibrium constants in modeling and simulating complex biological processes. Although much has been learned about some biological systems without these parameter values, they greatly strengthen mechanistic accounts of dynamical systems. The analysis of muscle contraction is a classic example of the value of combining an inventory of the molecules, atomic structures of the molecules, kinetic constants for the reactions, reconstitutions with purified proteins and theoretical modeling to account for the contraction of whole muscles. A similar strategy is now being used to understand the mechanism of cytokinesis using fission yeast as a favorable model system. Copyright © 2014 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biomechanical assessment and clinical analysis of different intramedullary nailing systems for oblique fractures.

PubMed

Alierta, J A; Pérez, M A; Seral, B; García-Aznar, J M

2016-09-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate the fracture union or non-union for a specific patient that presented oblique fractures in tibia and fibula, using a mechanistic-based bone healing model. Normally, this kind of fractures can be treated through an intramedullary nail using two possible configurations that depends on the mechanical stabilisation: static and dynamic. Both cases are simulated under different fracture geometries in order to understand the effect of the mechanical stabilisation on the fracture healing outcome. The results of both simulations are in good agreement with previous clinical experience. From the results, it is demonstrated that the dynamization of the fracture improves healing in comparison with a static or rigid fixation of the fracture. This work shows the versatility and potential of a mechanistic-based bone healing model to predict the final outcome (union, non-union, delayed union) of realistic 3D fractures where even more than one bone is involved.

Modelling insights on the partition of evapotranspiration components across biomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatichi, Simone; Pappas, Christoforos

2017-04-01

Recent studies using various methodologies have found a large variability (from 35 to 90%) in the ratio of transpiration to total evapotranspiration (denoted as T:ET) across biomes or even at the global scale. Concurrently, previous results suggest that T:ET is independent of mean precipitation and has a positive correlation with Leaf Area Index (LAI). We used the mechanistic ecohydrological model, T&C, with a refined process-based description of soil resistance and a detailed treatment of canopy biophysics and ecophysiology, to investigate T:ET across multiple biomes. Contrary to observation-based estimates, simulation results highlight a well-constrained range of mean T:ET across biomes that is also robust to perturbations of the most sensitive parameters. Simulated T:ET was confirmed to be independent of average precipitation, while it was found to be uncorrelated with LAI across biomes. Higher values of LAI increase evaporation from interception but suppress ground evaporation with the two effects largely cancelling each other in many sites. These results offer mechanistic, model-based, evidence to the ongoing research about the range of T:ET and the factors affecting its magnitude across biomes.

Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation.

PubMed

Yeh, Gour-Tsyh; Gwo, Jin-Ping; Siegel, Malcolm D; Li, Ming-Hsu; Fang, Yilin; Zhang, Fan; Luo, Wensui; Yabusaki, Steve B

2013-05-01

There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out are used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g., Ni, Cr, Co). The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models for environmental remediation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ODE constrained mixture modelling: a method for unraveling subpopulation structures and dynamics.

PubMed

Hasenauer, Jan; Hasenauer, Christine; Hucho, Tim; Theis, Fabian J

2014-07-01

Functional cell-to-cell variability is ubiquitous in multicellular organisms as well as bacterial populations. Even genetically identical cells of the same cell type can respond differently to identical stimuli. Methods have been developed to analyse heterogeneous populations, e.g., mixture models and stochastic population models. The available methods are, however, either incapable of simultaneously analysing different experimental conditions or are computationally demanding and difficult to apply. Furthermore, they do not account for biological information available in the literature. To overcome disadvantages of existing methods, we combine mixture models and ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. The ODE models provide a mechanistic description of the underlying processes while mixture models provide an easy way to capture variability. In a simulation study, we show that the class of ODE constrained mixture models can unravel the subpopulation structure and determine the sources of cell-to-cell variability. In addition, the method provides reliable estimates for kinetic rates and subpopulation characteristics. We use ODE constrained mixture modelling to study NGF-induced Erk1/2 phosphorylation in primary sensory neurones, a process relevant in inflammatory and neuropathic pain. We propose a mechanistic pathway model for this process and reconstructed static and dynamical subpopulation characteristics across experimental conditions. We validate the model predictions experimentally, which verifies the capabilities of ODE constrained mixture models. These results illustrate that ODE constrained mixture models can reveal novel mechanistic insights and possess a high sensitivity.

A Computational, Tissue-Realistic Model of Pressure Ulcer Formation in Individuals with Spinal Cord Injury.

PubMed

Ziraldo, Cordelia; Solovyev, Alexey; Allegretti, Ana; Krishnan, Shilpa; Henzel, M Kristi; Sowa, Gwendolyn A; Brienza, David; An, Gary; Mi, Qi; Vodovotz, Yoram

2015-06-01

People with spinal cord injury (SCI) are predisposed to pressure ulcers (PU). PU remain a significant burden in cost of care and quality of life despite improved mechanistic understanding and advanced interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) of ischemia/reperfusion-induced inflammation and PU (the PUABM) was created, calibrated to serial images of post-SCI PU, and used to investigate potential treatments in silico. Tissue-level features of the PUABM recapitulated visual patterns of ulcer formation in individuals with SCI. These morphological features, along with simulated cell counts and mediator concentrations, suggested that the influence of inflammatory dynamics caused simulations to be committed to "better" vs. "worse" outcomes by 4 days of simulated time and prior to ulcer formation. Sensitivity analysis of model parameters suggested that increasing oxygen availability would reduce PU incidence. Using the PUABM, in silico trials of anti-inflammatory treatments such as corticosteroids and a neutralizing antibody targeted at Damage-Associated Molecular Pattern molecules (DAMPs) suggested that, at best, early application at a sufficiently high dose could attenuate local inflammation and reduce pressure-associated tissue damage, but could not reduce PU incidence. The PUABM thus shows promise as an adjunct for mechanistic understanding, diagnosis, and design of therapies in the setting of PU.

A Computational, Tissue-Realistic Model of Pressure Ulcer Formation in Individuals with Spinal Cord Injury

PubMed Central

Ziraldo, Cordelia; Solovyev, Alexey; Allegretti, Ana; Krishnan, Shilpa; Henzel, M. Kristi; Sowa, Gwendolyn A.; Brienza, David; An, Gary; Mi, Qi; Vodovotz, Yoram

2015-01-01

People with spinal cord injury (SCI) are predisposed to pressure ulcers (PU). PU remain a significant burden in cost of care and quality of life despite improved mechanistic understanding and advanced interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) of ischemia/reperfusion-induced inflammation and PU (the PUABM) was created, calibrated to serial images of post-SCI PU, and used to investigate potential treatments in silico. Tissue-level features of the PUABM recapitulated visual patterns of ulcer formation in individuals with SCI. These morphological features, along with simulated cell counts and mediator concentrations, suggested that the influence of inflammatory dynamics caused simulations to be committed to “better” vs. “worse” outcomes by 4 days of simulated time and prior to ulcer formation. Sensitivity analysis of model parameters suggested that increasing oxygen availability would reduce PU incidence. Using the PUABM, in silico trials of anti-inflammatory treatments such as corticosteroids and a neutralizing antibody targeted at Damage-Associated Molecular Pattern molecules (DAMPs) suggested that, at best, early application at a sufficiently high dose could attenuate local inflammation and reduce pressure-associated tissue damage, but could not reduce PU incidence. The PUABM thus shows promise as an adjunct for mechanistic understanding, diagnosis, and design of therapies in the setting of PU. PMID:26111346

Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro

2018-01-01

Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

Modelling and observing the role of wind in Anopheles population dynamics around a reservoir.

PubMed

Endo, Noriko; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2018-01-25

Wind conditions, as well as other environmental conditions, are likely to influence malaria transmission through the behaviours of Anopheles mosquitoes, especially around water-resource reservoirs. Wind-induced waves in a reservoir impose mortality on aquatic-stage mosquitoes. Mosquitoes' host-seeking activity is also influenced by wind through dispersion of [Formula: see text]. However, no malaria transmission model exists to date that simulated those impacts of wind mechanistically. A modelling framework for simulating the three important effects of wind on the behaviours of mosquito is developed: attraction of adult mosquitoes through dispersion of [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] attraction), advection of adult mosquitoes (advection), and aquatic-stage mortality due to wind-induced surface waves (waves). The framework was incorporated in a mechanistic malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS. The performance of the extended simulator was compared with the observed population dynamics of the Anopheles mosquitoes at a village adjacent to the Koka Reservoir in Ethiopia. The observed population dynamics of the Anopheles mosquitoes were reproduced with some reasonable accuracy in HYDREMATS that includes the representation of the wind effects. HYDREMATS without the wind model failed to do so. Offshore wind explained the increase in Anopheles population that cannot be expected from other environmental conditions alone. Around large water bodies such as reservoirs, the role of wind in the dynamics of Anopheles population, hence in malaria transmission, can be significant. Modelling the impacts of wind on the behaviours of Anopheles mosquitoes aids in reproducing the seasonality of malaria transmission and in estimation of the risk of malaria around reservoirs.

Optimizing simulated fertilizer additions using a genetic algorithm with a nutrient uptake model

Treesearch

Wendell P. Cropper; N.B. Comerford

2005-01-01

Intensive management of pine plantations in the southeastern coastal plain typically involves weed and pest control, and the addition of fertilizer to meet the high nutrient demand of rapidly growing pines. In this study we coupled a mechanistic nutrient uptake model (SSAND, soil supply and nutrient demand) with a genetic algorithm (GA) in order to estimate the minimum...

Bacterial transformation and biodegradation processes simulation in horizontal subsurface flow constructed wetlands using CWM1-RETRASO.

PubMed

Llorens, Esther; Saaltink, Maarten W; Poch, Manel; García, Joan

2011-01-01

The performance and reliability of the CWM1-RETRASO model for simulating processes in horizontal subsurface flow constructed wetlands (HSSF CWs) and the relative contribution of different microbial reactions to organic matter (COD) removal in a HSSF CW treating urban wastewater were evaluated. Various different approaches with diverse influent configurations were simulated. According to the simulations, anaerobic processes were more widespread in the simulated wetland and contributed to a higher COD removal rate [72-79%] than anoxic [0-1%] and aerobic reactions [20-27%] did. In all the cases tested, the reaction that most contributed to COD removal was methanogenesis [58-73%]. All results provided by the model were in consonance with literature and experimental field observations, suggesting a good performance and reliability of CWM1-RETRASO. According to the good simulation predictions, CWM1-RETRASO is the first mechanistic model able to successfully simulate the processes described by the CWM1 model in HSSF CWs. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of a Mechanistic Model for Non-Invasive Study of Ecological Energetics in an Endangered Wading Bird with Counter-Current Heat Exchange in its Legs.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, Megan J; Mathewson, Paul D; Porter, Warren P

2015-01-01

Mechanistic models provide a powerful, minimally invasive tool for gaining a deeper understanding of the ecology of animals across geographic space and time. In this paper, we modified and validated the accuracy of the mechanistic model Niche Mapper for simulating heat exchanges of animals with counter-current heat exchange mechanisms in their legs and animals that wade in water. We then used Niche Mapper to explore the effects of wading and counter-current heat exchange on the energy expenditures of Whooping Cranes, a long-legged wading bird. We validated model accuracy against the energy expenditure of two captive Whooping Cranes measured using the doubly-labeled water method and time energy budgets. Energy expenditure values modeled by Niche Mapper were similar to values measured by the doubly-labeled water method and values estimated from time-energy budgets. Future studies will be able to use Niche Mapper as a non-invasive tool to explore energy-based limits to the fundamental niche of Whooping Cranes and apply this knowledge to management decisions. Basic questions about the importance of counter-current exchange and wading to animal physiological tolerances can also now be explored with the model.

Validation of a Mechanistic Model for Non-Invasive Study of Ecological Energetics in an Endangered Wading Bird with Counter-Current Heat Exchange in its Legs

PubMed Central

Fitzpatrick, Megan J.; Mathewson, Paul D.; Porter, Warren P.

2015-01-01

Mechanistic models provide a powerful, minimally invasive tool for gaining a deeper understanding of the ecology of animals across geographic space and time. In this paper, we modified and validated the accuracy of the mechanistic model Niche Mapper for simulating heat exchanges of animals with counter-current heat exchange mechanisms in their legs and animals that wade in water. We then used Niche Mapper to explore the effects of wading and counter-current heat exchange on the energy expenditures of Whooping Cranes, a long-legged wading bird. We validated model accuracy against the energy expenditure of two captive Whooping Cranes measured using the doubly-labeled water method and time energy budgets. Energy expenditure values modeled by Niche Mapper were similar to values measured by the doubly-labeled water method and values estimated from time-energy budgets. Future studies will be able to use Niche Mapper as a non-invasive tool to explore energy-based limits to the fundamental niche of Whooping Cranes and apply this knowledge to management decisions. Basic questions about the importance of counter-current exchange and wading to animal physiological tolerances can also now be explored with the model. PMID:26308207

Agent-Based Modeling in Systems Pharmacology.

PubMed

Cosgrove, J; Butler, J; Alden, K; Read, M; Kumar, V; Cucurull-Sanchez, L; Timmis, J; Coles, M

2015-11-01

Modeling and simulation (M&S) techniques provide a platform for knowledge integration and hypothesis testing to gain insights into biological systems that would not be possible a priori. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an M&S technique that focuses on describing individual components rather than homogenous populations. This tutorial introduces ABM to systems pharmacologists, using relevant case studies to highlight how ABM-specific strengths have yielded success in the area of preclinical mechanistic modeling.

Mechanistic ecohydrological modeling with Tethys-Chloris: an attempt to unravel complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Caporali, E.

2010-12-01

The role of vegetation in controlling and mediating hydrological states and fluxes at the level of individual processes has been largely explored, which has lead to the improvement of our understanding of mechanisms and patterns in ecohydrological systems. Nonetheless, relatively few efforts have been directed toward the development of continuous, complex, mechanistic ecohydrological models operating at the watershed-scale. This study presents a novel ecohydrological model Tethys-Chloris (T&C) and aims to discuss current limitations and perspectives of the mechanistic approach in ecohydrology. The model attempts to synthesize the state-of-the-art knowledge on individual processes and mechanisms drawn from various disciplines such as hydrology, plant physiology, ecology, and biogeochemistry. The model reproduces all essential components of hydrological cycle resolving the mass and energy budgets at the hourly scale; it includes energy and mass exchanges in the atmospheric boundary layer; a module of saturated and unsaturated soil water dynamics; two layers of vegetation, and a module of snowpack evolution. The vegetation component parsimoniously parameterizes essential plant life-cycle processes, including photosynthesis, phenology, carbon allocation, tissues turnover, and soil biogeochemistry. Quantitative metrics of model performance are discussed and highlight the capabilities of T&C in reproducing ecohydrological dynamics. The simulated patterns mimic the outcome of hydrological dynamics with high realism, given the uncertainty of imposed boundary conditions and limited data availability. Furthermore, highly satisfactory results are obtained without significant (e.g., automated) calibration efforts despite the large phase-space dimensionality of the model. A significant investment into model design and development leads to such desirable behavior. This suggests that while using the presented tool for high-precision predictions can be still problematic, the mechanistic nature of the model can be extremely valuable for designing virtual experiments, testing hypotheses. and focusing questions of scientific inquiry.

Development of a Mechanistic-Based Healing Model for Self-Healing Glass Seals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Wei; Stephens, Elizabeth V.; Sun, Xin

Self-healing glass, a recent development of hermetic sealant materials, has the ability to effectively repair damage when heated to elevated temperatures; thus, able to extend its service life. Since crack healing morphological changes in the glass material are usually temperature and stress dependent, quantitative studies to determine the effects of thermo-mechanical conditions on the healing behavior of the self-healing glass sealants are extremely useful to accommodate the design and optimization of the sealing systems within SOFCs. The goal of this task is to develop a mechanistic-based healing model to quantify the stress and temperature dependent healing behavior. A two-step healingmore » mechanism was developed and implemented into finite element (FE) models through user-subroutines. Integrated experimental/kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) simulation methodology was taken to calibrate the model parameters. The crack healing model is able to investigate the effects of various thermo-mechanical factors; therefore, able to determine the critical conditions under which the healing mechanism will be activated. Furthermore, the predicted results can be used to formulate the continuum damage-healing model and to assist the SOFC stack level simulations in predicting and evaluating the effectiveness and the performance of various engineering seal designs.« less

Rational design of liposomal drug delivery systems, a review: Combined experimental and computational studies of lipid membranes, liposomes and their PEGylation.

PubMed

Bunker, Alex; Magarkar, Aniket; Viitala, Tapani

2016-10-01

Combined experimental and computational studies of lipid membranes and liposomes, with the aim to attain mechanistic understanding, result in a synergy that makes possible the rational design of liposomal drug delivery system (LDS) based therapies. The LDS is the leading form of nanoscale drug delivery platform, an avenue in drug research, known as "nanomedicine", that holds the promise to transcend the current paradigm of drug development that has led to diminishing returns. Unfortunately this field of research has, so far, been far more successful in generating publications than new drug therapies. This partly results from the trial and error based methodologies used. We discuss experimental techniques capable of obtaining mechanistic insight into LDS structure and behavior. Insight obtained purely experimentally is, however, limited; computational modeling using molecular dynamics simulation can provide insight not otherwise available. We review computational research, that makes use of the multiscale modeling paradigm, simulating the phospholipid membrane with all atom resolution and the entire liposome with coarse grained models. We discuss in greater detail the computational modeling of liposome PEGylation. Overall, we wish to convey the power that lies in the combined use of experimental and computational methodologies; we hope to provide a roadmap for the rational design of LDS based therapies. Computational modeling is able to provide mechanistic insight that explains the context of experimental results and can also take the lead and inspire new directions for experimental research into LDS development. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Biosimulations edited by Ilpo Vattulainen and Tomasz Róg. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeh, Gour T.; National Central Univ.; Univ. of Central Florida

2013-05-01

There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out aremore » used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co).The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models for environmental remediation.The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium.« less

Guidelines for Implementing NCHRP 1-37A M-E Design Procedures in Ohio : Volume 2 -- Literature Review

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-11-01

The development of the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) under National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) projects 1-37A and 1-40D has significantly improved the ability of pavement designers to model and simulate the eff...

Modeling process-structure-property relationships for additive manufacturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Wentao; Lin, Stephen; Kafka, Orion L.; Yu, Cheng; Liu, Zeliang; Lian, Yanping; Wolff, Sarah; Cao, Jian; Wagner, Gregory J.; Liu, Wing Kam

2018-02-01

This paper presents our latest work on comprehensive modeling of process-structure-property relationships for additive manufacturing (AM) materials, including using data-mining techniques to close the cycle of design-predict-optimize. To illustrate the processstructure relationship, the multi-scale multi-physics process modeling starts from the micro-scale to establish a mechanistic heat source model, to the meso-scale models of individual powder particle evolution, and finally to the macro-scale model to simulate the fabrication process of a complex product. To link structure and properties, a highefficiency mechanistic model, self-consistent clustering analyses, is developed to capture a variety of material response. The model incorporates factors such as voids, phase composition, inclusions, and grain structures, which are the differentiating features of AM metals. Furthermore, we propose data-mining as an effective solution for novel rapid design and optimization, which is motivated by the numerous influencing factors in the AM process. We believe this paper will provide a roadmap to advance AM fundamental understanding and guide the monitoring and advanced diagnostics of AM processing.

Modeling microbiological and chemical processes in municipal solid waste bioreactor, Part II: Application of numerical model BIOKEMOD-3P.

PubMed

Gawande, Nitin A; Reinhart, Debra R; Yeh, Gour-Tsyh

2010-02-01

Biodegradation process modeling of municipal solid waste (MSW) bioreactor landfills requires the knowledge of various process reactions and corresponding kinetic parameters. Mechanistic models available to date are able to simulate biodegradation processes with the help of pre-defined species and reactions. Some of these models consider the effect of critical parameters such as moisture content, pH, and temperature. Biomass concentration is a vital parameter for any biomass growth model and often not compared with field and laboratory results. A more complex biodegradation model includes a large number of chemical and microbiological species. Increasing the number of species and user defined process reactions in the simulation requires a robust numerical tool. A generalized microbiological and chemical model, BIOKEMOD-3P, was developed to simulate biodegradation processes in three-phases (Gawande et al. 2009). This paper presents the application of this model to simulate laboratory-scale MSW bioreactors under anaerobic conditions. BIOKEMOD-3P was able to closely simulate the experimental data. The results from this study may help in application of this model to full-scale landfill operation.

Elements of complexity in subsurface modeling, exemplified with three case studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Freedman, Vicky L.; Truex, Michael J.; Rockhold, Mark

2017-04-03

There are complexity elements to consider when applying subsurface flow and transport models to support environmental analyses. Modelers balance the benefits and costs of modeling along the spectrum of complexity, taking into account the attributes of more simple models (e.g., lower cost, faster execution, easier to explain, less mechanistic) and the attributes of more complex models (higher cost, slower execution, harder to explain, more mechanistic and technically defensible). In this paper, modeling complexity is examined with respect to considering this balance. The discussion of modeling complexity is organized into three primary elements: 1) modeling approach, 2) description of process, andmore » 3) description of heterogeneity. Three examples are used to examine these complexity elements. Two of the examples use simulations generated from a complex model to develop simpler models for efficient use in model applications. The first example is designed to support performance evaluation of soil vapor extraction remediation in terms of groundwater protection. The second example investigates the importance of simulating different categories of geochemical reactions for carbon sequestration and selecting appropriate simplifications for use in evaluating sequestration scenarios. In the third example, the modeling history for a uranium-contaminated site demonstrates that conservative parameter estimates were inadequate surrogates for complex, critical processes and there is discussion on the selection of more appropriate model complexity for this application. All three examples highlight how complexity considerations are essential to create scientifically defensible models that achieve a balance between model simplification and complexity.« less

Elements of complexity in subsurface modeling, exemplified with three case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freedman, Vicky L.; Truex, Michael J.; Rockhold, Mark L.; Bacon, Diana H.; Freshley, Mark D.; Wellman, Dawn M.

2017-09-01

There are complexity elements to consider when applying subsurface flow and transport models to support environmental analyses. Modelers balance the benefits and costs of modeling along the spectrum of complexity, taking into account the attributes of more simple models (e.g., lower cost, faster execution, easier to explain, less mechanistic) and the attributes of more complex models (higher cost, slower execution, harder to explain, more mechanistic and technically defensible). In this report, modeling complexity is examined with respect to considering this balance. The discussion of modeling complexity is organized into three primary elements: (1) modeling approach, (2) description of process, and (3) description of heterogeneity. Three examples are used to examine these complexity elements. Two of the examples use simulations generated from a complex model to develop simpler models for efficient use in model applications. The first example is designed to support performance evaluation of soil-vapor-extraction remediation in terms of groundwater protection. The second example investigates the importance of simulating different categories of geochemical reactions for carbon sequestration and selecting appropriate simplifications for use in evaluating sequestration scenarios. In the third example, the modeling history for a uranium-contaminated site demonstrates that conservative parameter estimates were inadequate surrogates for complex, critical processes and there is discussion on the selection of more appropriate model complexity for this application. All three examples highlight how complexity considerations are essential to create scientifically defensible models that achieve a balance between model simplification and complexity.

The Constraints, Construction, and Verification of a Strain-Specific Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Rat Model.

PubMed

Musther, Helen; Harwood, Matthew D; Yang, Jiansong; Turner, David B; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin; Jamei, Masoud

2017-09-01

The use of in vitro-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) techniques, mechanistically incorporated within physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models, can harness in vitro drug data and enhance understanding of in vivo pharmacokinetics. This study's objective was to develop a user-friendly rat (250 g, male Sprague-Dawley) IVIVE-linked PBPK model. A 13-compartment PBPK model including mechanistic absorption models was developed, with required system data (anatomical, physiological, and relevant IVIVE scaling factors) collated from literature and analyzed. Overall, 178 system parameter values for the model are provided. This study also highlights gaps in available system data required for strain-specific rat PBPK model development. The model's functionality and performance were assessed using previous literature-sourced in vitro properties for diazepam, metoprolol, and midazolam. The results of simulations were compared against observed pharmacokinetic rat data. Predicted and observed concentration profiles in 10 tissues for diazepam after a single intravenous (i.v.) dose making use of either observed i.v. clearance (CL iv ) or in vitro hepatocyte intrinsic clearance (CL int ) for simulations generally led to good predictions in various tissue compartments. Overall, all i.v. plasma concentration profiles were successfully predicted. However, there were challenges in predicting oral plasma concentration profiles for metoprolol and midazolam, and the potential reasons and according solutions are discussed. Copyright © 2017 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ODE Constrained Mixture Modelling: A Method for Unraveling Subpopulation Structures and Dynamics

PubMed Central

Hasenauer, Jan; Hasenauer, Christine; Hucho, Tim; Theis, Fabian J.

2014-01-01

Functional cell-to-cell variability is ubiquitous in multicellular organisms as well as bacterial populations. Even genetically identical cells of the same cell type can respond differently to identical stimuli. Methods have been developed to analyse heterogeneous populations, e.g., mixture models and stochastic population models. The available methods are, however, either incapable of simultaneously analysing different experimental conditions or are computationally demanding and difficult to apply. Furthermore, they do not account for biological information available in the literature. To overcome disadvantages of existing methods, we combine mixture models and ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. The ODE models provide a mechanistic description of the underlying processes while mixture models provide an easy way to capture variability. In a simulation study, we show that the class of ODE constrained mixture models can unravel the subpopulation structure and determine the sources of cell-to-cell variability. In addition, the method provides reliable estimates for kinetic rates and subpopulation characteristics. We use ODE constrained mixture modelling to study NGF-induced Erk1/2 phosphorylation in primary sensory neurones, a process relevant in inflammatory and neuropathic pain. We propose a mechanistic pathway model for this process and reconstructed static and dynamical subpopulation characteristics across experimental conditions. We validate the model predictions experimentally, which verifies the capabilities of ODE constrained mixture models. These results illustrate that ODE constrained mixture models can reveal novel mechanistic insights and possess a high sensitivity. PMID:24992156

Root plasticity buffers competition among plants: theory meets experimental data.

PubMed

Schiffers, Katja; Tielbörger, Katja; Tietjen, Britta; Jeltsch, Florian

2011-03-01

Morphological plasticity is a striking characteristic of plants in natural communities. In the context of foraging behavior particularly, root plasticity has been documented for numerous species. Root plasticity is known to mitigate competitive interactions by reducing the overlap of the individuals' rhizospheres. But despite its obvious effect on resource acquisition, plasticity has been generally neglected in previous empirical and theoretical studies estimating interaction intensity among plants. In this study, we developed a semi-mechanistic model that addresses this shortcoming by introducing the idea of compensatory growth into the classical-zone-of influence (ZOI) and field-of-neighborhood (FON) approaches. The model parameters describing the belowground plastic sphere of influence (PSI) were parameterized using data from an accompanying field experiment. Measurements of the uptake of a stable nutrient analogue at distinct distances to the neighboring plants showed that the study species responded plastically to belowground competition by avoiding overlap of individuals' rhizospheres. An unexpected finding was that the sphere of influence of the study species Bromus hordeaceus could be best described by a unimodal function of distance to the plant's center and not with a continuously decreasing function as commonly assumed. We employed the parameterized model to investigate the interplay between plasticity and two other important factors determining the intensity of competitive interactions: overall plant density and the distribution of individuals in space. The simulation results confirm that the reduction of competition intensity due to morphological plasticity strongly depends on the spatial structure of the competitive environment. We advocate the use of semi-mechanistic simulations that explicitly consider morphological plasticity to improve our mechanistic understanding of plant interactions.

Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James A.

2009-01-01

How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this behavior can be maintained over increasing and sustained environmental change. Also, the problem is much more complex than described by the current processes captured in our model. We have taken some important and interesting steps, and our model does demonstrate how local scale information about individual stop-over sites can be linked into the migratory flyway as a whole. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect different climate change scenarios

Credibility, Replicability, and Reproducibility in Simulation for Biomedicine and Clinical Applications in Neuroscience

PubMed Central

Mulugeta, Lealem; Drach, Andrew; Erdemir, Ahmet; Hunt, C. A.; Horner, Marc; Ku, Joy P.; Myers Jr., Jerry G.; Vadigepalli, Rajanikanth; Lytton, William W.

2018-01-01

Modeling and simulation in computational neuroscience is currently a research enterprise to better understand neural systems. It is not yet directly applicable to the problems of patients with brain disease. To be used for clinical applications, there must not only be considerable progress in the field but also a concerted effort to use best practices in order to demonstrate model credibility to regulatory bodies, to clinics and hospitals, to doctors, and to patients. In doing this for neuroscience, we can learn lessons from long-standing practices in other areas of simulation (aircraft, computer chips), from software engineering, and from other biomedical disciplines. In this manuscript, we introduce some basic concepts that will be important in the development of credible clinical neuroscience models: reproducibility and replicability; verification and validation; model configuration; and procedures and processes for credible mechanistic multiscale modeling. We also discuss how garnering strong community involvement can promote model credibility. Finally, in addition to direct usage with patients, we note the potential for simulation usage in the area of Simulation-Based Medical Education, an area which to date has been primarily reliant on physical models (mannequins) and scenario-based simulations rather than on numerical simulations. PMID:29713272

Credibility, Replicability, and Reproducibility in Simulation for Biomedicine and Clinical Applications in Neuroscience.

PubMed

Mulugeta, Lealem; Drach, Andrew; Erdemir, Ahmet; Hunt, C A; Horner, Marc; Ku, Joy P; Myers, Jerry G; Vadigepalli, Rajanikanth; Lytton, William W

2018-01-01

Modeling and simulation in computational neuroscience is currently a research enterprise to better understand neural systems. It is not yet directly applicable to the problems of patients with brain disease. To be used for clinical applications, there must not only be considerable progress in the field but also a concerted effort to use best practices in order to demonstrate model credibility to regulatory bodies, to clinics and hospitals, to doctors, and to patients. In doing this for neuroscience, we can learn lessons from long-standing practices in other areas of simulation (aircraft, computer chips), from software engineering, and from other biomedical disciplines. In this manuscript, we introduce some basic concepts that will be important in the development of credible clinical neuroscience models: reproducibility and replicability; verification and validation; model configuration; and procedures and processes for credible mechanistic multiscale modeling. We also discuss how garnering strong community involvement can promote model credibility. Finally, in addition to direct usage with patients, we note the potential for simulation usage in the area of Simulation-Based Medical Education, an area which to date has been primarily reliant on physical models (mannequins) and scenario-based simulations rather than on numerical simulations.

Estimating Time-Varying PCB Exposures Using Person-Specific Predictions to Supplement Measured Values: A Comparison of Observed and Predicted Values in Two Cohorts of Norwegian Women.

PubMed

Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Breivik, Knut; Wania, Frank; Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

2016-03-01

Studies on the health effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) call for an understanding of past and present human exposure. Time-resolved mechanistic models may supplement information on concentrations in individuals obtained from measurements and/or statistical approaches if they can be shown to reproduce empirical data. Here, we evaluated the capability of one such mechanistic model to reproduce measured PCB concentrations in individual Norwegian women. We also assessed individual life-course concentrations. Concentrations of four PCB congeners in pregnant (n = 310, sampled in 2007-2009) and postmenopausal (n = 244, 2005) women were compared with person-specific predictions obtained using CoZMoMAN, an emission-based environmental fate and human food-chain bioaccumulation model. Person-specific predictions were also made using statistical regression models including dietary and lifestyle variables and concentrations. CoZMoMAN accurately reproduced medians and ranges of measured concentrations in the two study groups. Furthermore, rank correlations between measurements and predictions from both CoZMoMAN and regression analyses were strong (Spearman's r > 0.67). Precision in quartile assignments from predictions was strong overall as evaluated by weighted Cohen's kappa (> 0.6). Simulations indicated large inter-individual differences in concentrations experienced in the past. The mechanistic model reproduced all measurements of PCB concentrations within a factor of 10, and subject ranking and quartile assignments were overall largely consistent, although they were weak within each study group. Contamination histories for individuals predicted by CoZMoMAN revealed variation between study subjects, particularly in the timing of peak concentrations. Mechanistic models can provide individual PCB exposure metrics that could serve as valuable supplements to measurements.

Simulation of Drought-induced Tree Mortality Using a New Individual and Hydraulic Trait-based Model (S-TEDy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, T.; Gangodagamage, C.; Ale, S.; Frazier, A. G.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Kumagai, T.; Nakai, T.; Sato, H.

2017-12-01

Drought-related tree mortality at a regional scale causes drastic shifts in carbon and water cycling in Southeast Asian tropical rainforests, where severe droughts are projected to occur more frequently, especially under El Niño conditions. To provide a useful tool for projecting the tropical rainforest dynamics under climate change conditions, we developed the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based (SEIB) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) applicable to simulating mechanistic tree mortality induced by the climatic impacts via individual-tree-scale ecophysiology such as hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. In this study, we present the new model, SEIB-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics (S-TEDy) model, and the computation results were compared with observations collected at a field site in a Bornean tropical rainforest. Furthermore, after validating the model's performance, numerical experiments addressing a future of the tropical rainforest were conducted using some global climate model (GCM) simulation outputs.

Application of response surface methodology and semi-mechanistic model to optimize fluoride removal using crushed concrete in a fixed-bed column.

PubMed

Gu, Bon-Wun; Lee, Chang-Gu; Park, Seong-Jik

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the removal of fluoride from aqueous solutions by using crushed concrete fines as a filter medium under varying conditions of pH 3-7, flow rate of 0.3-0.7 mL/min, and filter depth of 10-20 cm. The performance of fixed-bed columns was evaluated on the basis of the removal ratio (Re), uptake capacity (qe), degree of sorbent used (DoSU), and sorbent usage rate (SUR) obtained from breakthrough curves (BTCs). Three widely used semi-mechanistic models, that is, Bohart-Adams, Thomas, and Yoon-Nelson models, were applied to simulate the BTCs and to derive the design parameters. The Box-Behnken design of response surface methodology (RSM) was used to elucidate the individual and interactive effects of the three operational parameters on the column performance and to optimize these parameters. The results demonstrated that pH is the most important factor in the performance of fluoride removal by a fixed-bed column. The flow rate had a significant negative influence on Re and DoSU, and the effect of filter depth was observed only in the regression model for DoSU. Statistical analysis indicated that the model attained from the RSM study is suitable for describing the semi-mechanistic model parameters.

Predicting neuroblastoma using developmental signals and a logic-based model.

PubMed

Kasemeier-Kulesa, Jennifer C; Schnell, Santiago; Woolley, Thomas; Spengler, Jennifer A; Morrison, Jason A; McKinney, Mary C; Pushel, Irina; Wolfe, Lauren A; Kulesa, Paul M

2018-07-01

Genomic information from human patient samples of pediatric neuroblastoma cancers and known outcomes have led to specific gene lists put forward as high risk for disease progression. However, the reliance on gene expression correlations rather than mechanistic insight has shown limited potential and suggests a critical need for molecular network models that better predict neuroblastoma progression. In this study, we construct and simulate a molecular network of developmental genes and downstream signals in a 6-gene input logic model that predicts a favorable/unfavorable outcome based on the outcome of the four cell states including cell differentiation, proliferation, apoptosis, and angiogenesis. We simulate the mis-expression of the tyrosine receptor kinases, trkA and trkB, two prognostic indicators of neuroblastoma, and find differences in the number and probability distribution of steady state outcomes. We validate the mechanistic model assumptions using RNAseq of the SHSY5Y human neuroblastoma cell line to define the input states and confirm the predicted outcome with antibody staining. Lastly, we apply input gene signatures from 77 published human patient samples and show that our model makes more accurate disease outcome predictions for early stage disease than any current neuroblastoma gene list. These findings highlight the predictive strength of a logic-based model based on developmental genes and offer a better understanding of the molecular network interactions during neuroblastoma disease progression. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Agent-based models in translational systems biology

PubMed Central

An, Gary; Mi, Qi; Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Vodovotz, Yoram

2013-01-01

Effective translational methodologies for knowledge representation are needed in order to make strides against the constellation of diseases that affect the world today. These diseases are defined by their mechanistic complexity, redundancy, and nonlinearity. Translational systems biology aims to harness the power of computational simulation to streamline drug/device design, simulate clinical trials, and eventually to predict the effects of drugs on individuals. The ability of agent-based modeling to encompass multiple scales of biological process as well as spatial considerations, coupled with an intuitive modeling paradigm, suggests that this modeling framework is well suited for translational systems biology. This review describes agent-based modeling and gives examples of its translational applications in the context of acute inflammation and wound healing. PMID:20835989

Documentation of a daily mean stream temperature module—An enhancement to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanders, Michael J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Regan, R. Steven; Atkinson, R. Dwight

2017-09-15

A module for simulation of daily mean water temperature in a network of stream segments has been developed as an enhancement to the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). This new module is based on the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Stream Network Temperature model, a mechanistic, one-dimensional heat transport model. The new module is integrated in PRMS. Stream-water temperature simulation is activated by selection of the appropriate input flags in the PRMS Control File and by providing the necessary additional inputs in standard PRMS input files.This report includes a comprehensive discussion of the methods relevant to the stream temperature calculations and detailed instructions for model input preparation.

NEMA, a functional-structural model of nitrogen economy within wheat culms after flowering. II. Evaluation and sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Bertheloot, Jessica; Wu, Qiongli; Cournède, Paul-Henry; Andrieu, Bruno

2011-10-01

Simulating nitrogen economy in crop plants requires formalizing the interactions between soil nitrogen availability, root nitrogen acquisition, distribution between vegetative organs and remobilization towards grains. This study evaluates and analyses the functional-structural and mechanistic model of nitrogen economy, NEMA (Nitrogen Economy Model within plant Architecture), developed for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) after flowering. NEMA was calibrated for field plants under three nitrogen fertilization treatments at flowering. Model behaviour was investigated and sensitivity to parameter values was analysed. Nitrogen content of all photosynthetic organs and in particular nitrogen vertical distribution along the stem and remobilization patterns in response to fertilization were simulated accurately by the model, from Rubisco turnover modulated by light intercepted by the organ and a mobile nitrogen pool. This pool proved to be a reliable indicator of plant nitrogen status, allowing efficient regulation of nitrogen acquisition by roots, remobilization from vegetative organs and accumulation in grains in response to nitrogen treatments. In our simulations, root capacity to import carbon, rather than carbon availability, limited nitrogen acquisition and ultimately nitrogen accumulation in grains, while Rubisco turnover intensity mostly affected dry matter accumulation in grains. NEMA enabled interpretation of several key patterns usually observed in field conditions and the identification of plausible processes limiting for grain yield, protein content and root nitrogen acquisition that could be targets for plant breeding; however, further understanding requires more mechanistic formalization of carbon metabolism. Its strong physiological basis and its realistic behaviour support its use to gain insights into nitrogen economy after flowering.

A Multiscale Simulation Framework to Investigate Hydrobiogeochemical Processes in the Groundwater-Surface Water Interaction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheibe, T. D.; Yang, X.; Song, X.; Chen, X.; Hammond, G. E.; Song, H. S.; Hou, Z.; Murray, C. J.; Tartakovsky, A. M.; Tartakovsky, G.; Yang, X.; Zachara, J. M.

2016-12-01

Drought-related tree mortality at a regional scale causes drastic shifts in carbon and water cycling in Southeast Asian tropical rainforests, where severe droughts are projected to occur more frequently, especially under El Niño conditions. To provide a useful tool for projecting the tropical rainforest dynamics under climate change conditions, we developed the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based (SEIB) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) applicable to simulating mechanistic tree mortality induced by the climatic impacts via individual-tree-scale ecophysiology such as hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. In this study, we present the new model, SEIB-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics (S-TEDy) model, and the computation results were compared with observations collected at a field site in a Bornean tropical rainforest. Furthermore, after validating the model's performance, numerical experiments addressing a future of the tropical rainforest were conducted using some global climate model (GCM) simulation outputs.

Characteristics of 3-D transport simulations of the stratosphere and mesosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fairlie, T. D. A.; Siskind, D. E.; Turner, R. E.; Fisher, M.

1992-01-01

A 3D mechanistic, primitive-equation model of the stratosphere and mesosphere is coupled to an offline spectral transport model. The dynamics model is initialized with and forced by observations so that the coupled models may be used to study specific episodes. Results are compared with those obtained by transport online in the dynamics model. Although some differences are apparent, the results suggest that coupling of the models to a comprehensive photochemical package will provide a useful tool for studying the evolution of constituents in the middle atmosphere during specific episodes.

Mechanistic Lake Modeling to Understand and Predict Heterogeneous Responses to Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, J. S.; Winslow, L. A.; Rose, K. C.; Hansen, G. J.

2016-12-01

Substantial warming has been documented for of hundreds globally distributed lakes, with likely impacts on ecosystem processes. Despite a clear pattern of widespread warming, thermal responses of individual lakes to climate change are often heterogeneous, with the warming rates of neighboring lakes varying across depths and among seasons. We aggregated temperature observations and parameterized mechanistic models for 9,000 lakes in the U.S. states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan to examine broad-scale lake warming trends and among-lake diversity. Daily lake temperature profiles and ice-cover dynamics were simulated using the General Lake Model for the contemporary period (1979-2015) using drivers from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) and for contemporary and future periods (1980-2100) using downscaled data from six global circulation models driven by the Representative Climate Pathway 8.5 scenario. For the contemporary period, modeled vs observed summer mean surface temperatures had a root mean squared error of 0.98°C with modeled warming trends similar to observed trends. Future simulations under the extreme 8.5 scenario predicted a median lake summer surface warming rate of 0.57°C/decade until mid-century, with slower rates in the later half of the 21st century (0.35°C/decade). Modeling scenarios and analysis of field data suggest that the lake-specific properties of size, water clarity, and depth are strong controls on the sensitivity of lakes to climate change. For example, a simulated 1% annual decline in water clarity was sufficient to override the effects of climate warming on whole lake water temperatures in some - but not all - study lakes. Understanding heterogeneous lake responses to climate variability can help identify lake-specific features that influence resilience to climate change.

WholeCellSimDB: a hybrid relational/HDF database for whole-cell model predictions

PubMed Central

Karr, Jonathan R.; Phillips, Nolan C.; Covert, Markus W.

2014-01-01

Mechanistic ‘whole-cell’ models are needed to develop a complete understanding of cell physiology. However, extracting biological insights from whole-cell models requires running and analyzing large numbers of simulations. We developed WholeCellSimDB, a database for organizing whole-cell simulations. WholeCellSimDB was designed to enable researchers to search simulation metadata to identify simulations for further analysis, and quickly slice and aggregate simulation results data. In addition, WholeCellSimDB enables users to share simulations with the broader research community. The database uses a hybrid relational/hierarchical data format architecture to efficiently store and retrieve both simulation setup metadata and results data. WholeCellSimDB provides a graphical Web-based interface to search, browse, plot and export simulations; a JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) Web service to retrieve data for Web-based visualizations; a command-line interface to deposit simulations; and a Python API to retrieve data for advanced analysis. Overall, we believe WholeCellSimDB will help researchers use whole-cell models to advance basic biological science and bioengineering. Database URL: http://www.wholecellsimdb.org Source code repository URL: http://github.com/CovertLab/WholeCellSimDB PMID:25231498

A mechanistic spatio-temporal framework for modelling individual-to-individual transmission—With an application to the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak

PubMed Central

McClelland, Amanda; Zelner, Jon; Streftaris, George; Funk, Sebastian; Metcalf, Jessica; Dalziel, Benjamin D.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2017-01-01

In recent years there has been growing availability of individual-level spatio-temporal disease data, particularly due to the use of modern communicating devices with GPS tracking functionality. These detailed data have been proven useful for inferring disease transmission to a more refined level than previously. However, there remains a lack of statistically sound frameworks to model the underlying transmission dynamic in a mechanistic manner. Such a development is particularly crucial for enabling a general epidemic predictive framework at the individual level. In this paper we propose a new statistical framework for mechanistically modelling individual-to-individual disease transmission in a landscape with heterogeneous population density. Our methodology is first tested using simulated datasets, validating our inferential machinery. The methodology is subsequently applied to data that describes a regional Ebola outbreak in Western Africa (2014-2015). Our results show that the methods are able to obtain estimates of key epidemiological parameters that are broadly consistent with the literature, while revealing a significantly shorter distance of transmission. More importantly, in contrast to existing approaches, we are able to perform a more general model prediction that takes into account the susceptible population. Finally, our results show that, given reasonable scenarios, the framework can be an effective surrogate for susceptible-explicit individual models which are often computationally challenging. PMID:29084216

A mechanistic spatio-temporal framework for modelling individual-to-individual transmission-With an application to the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak.

PubMed

Lau, Max S Y; Gibson, Gavin J; Adrakey, Hola; McClelland, Amanda; Riley, Steven; Zelner, Jon; Streftaris, George; Funk, Sebastian; Metcalf, Jessica; Dalziel, Benjamin D; Grenfell, Bryan T

2017-10-01

In recent years there has been growing availability of individual-level spatio-temporal disease data, particularly due to the use of modern communicating devices with GPS tracking functionality. These detailed data have been proven useful for inferring disease transmission to a more refined level than previously. However, there remains a lack of statistically sound frameworks to model the underlying transmission dynamic in a mechanistic manner. Such a development is particularly crucial for enabling a general epidemic predictive framework at the individual level. In this paper we propose a new statistical framework for mechanistically modelling individual-to-individual disease transmission in a landscape with heterogeneous population density. Our methodology is first tested using simulated datasets, validating our inferential machinery. The methodology is subsequently applied to data that describes a regional Ebola outbreak in Western Africa (2014-2015). Our results show that the methods are able to obtain estimates of key epidemiological parameters that are broadly consistent with the literature, while revealing a significantly shorter distance of transmission. More importantly, in contrast to existing approaches, we are able to perform a more general model prediction that takes into account the susceptible population. Finally, our results show that, given reasonable scenarios, the framework can be an effective surrogate for susceptible-explicit individual models which are often computationally challenging.

On the formation of dense understory layers in forests worldwide: consequences and implications for forest dynamics, biodiversity, and succession

Treesearch

Alejandro A. Royo; Walter P. Carson

2006-01-01

The mechanistic basis underpinning forest succession is the gap-phase paradigm in which overstory disturbance interacts with seedling and sapling shade tolerance to determine successional trajectories. The theory, and ensuing simulation models, typically assume that understory plants have little impact on the advance regeneration layer's composition. We challenge...

Effects of septum and pericardium on heart-lung interactions in a cardiopulmonary simulation model.

PubMed

Karamolegkos, Nikolaos; Albanese, Antonio; Chbat, Nicolas W

2017-07-01

Mechanical heart-lung interactions are often overlooked in clinical settings. However, their impact on cardiac function can be quite significant. Mechanistic physiology-based models can provide invaluable insights into such cardiorespiratory interactions, which occur not only under external mechanical ventilatory support but in normal physiology as well. In this work, we focus on the cardiac component of a previously developed mathematical model of the human cardiopulmonary system, aiming to improve the model's response to the intrathoracic pressure variations that are associated with the respiratory cycle. Interventricular septum and pericardial membrane are integrated into the existing model. Their effect on the overall cardiac response is explained by means of comparison against simulation results from the original model as well as experimental data from literature.

Systems pharmacology modeling of drug‐induced hyperbilirubinemia: Differentiating hepatotoxicity and inhibition of enzymes/transporters

PubMed Central

Battista, C; Woodhead, JL; Stahl, SH; Mettetal, JT; Watkins, PB; Siler, SQ; Howell, BA

2017-01-01

Elevations in serum bilirubin during drug treatment may indicate global liver dysfunction and a high risk of liver failure. However, drugs also can increase serum bilirubin in the absence of hepatic injury by inhibiting specific enzymes/transporters. We constructed a mechanistic model of bilirubin disposition based on known functional polymorphisms in bilirubin metabolism/transport. Using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model‐predicted drug exposure and enzyme/transporter inhibition constants determined in vitro, our model correctly predicted indinavir‐mediated hyperbilirubinemia in humans and rats. Nelfinavir was predicted not to cause hyperbilirubinemia, consistent with clinical observations. We next examined a new drug candidate that caused both elevations in serum bilirubin and biochemical evidence of liver injury in rats. Simulations suggest that bilirubin elevation primarily resulted from inhibition of transporters rather than global liver dysfunction. We conclude that mechanistic modeling of bilirubin can help elucidate underlying mechanisms of drug‐induced hyperbilirubinemia, and thereby distinguish benign from clinically important elevations in serum bilirubin. PMID:28074467

Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

PubMed Central

Guis, Helene; Caminade, Cyril; Calvete, Carlos; Morse, Andrew P.; Tran, Annelise; Baylis, Matthew

2012-01-01

Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases. PMID:21697167

PSPs and ERPs: applying the dynamics of post-synaptic potentials to individual units in simulation of temporally extended Event-Related Potential reading data.

PubMed

Laszlo, Sarah; Armstrong, Blair C

2014-05-01

The Parallel Distributed Processing (PDP) framework is built on neural-style computation, and is thus well-suited for simulating the neural implementation of cognition. However, relatively little cognitive modeling work has concerned neural measures, instead focusing on behavior. Here, we extend a PDP model of reading-related components in the Event-Related Potential (ERP) to simulation of the N400 repetition effect. We accomplish this by incorporating the dynamics of cortical post-synaptic potentials--the source of the ERP signal--into the model. Simulations demonstrate that application of these dynamics is critical for model elicitation of repetition effects in the time and frequency domains. We conclude that by advancing a neurocomputational understanding of repetition effects, we are able to posit an interpretation of their source that is both explicitly specified and mechanistically different from the well-accepted cognitive one. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

SINGLE PHASE ANALYTICAL MODELS FOR TERRY TURBINE NOZZLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Haihua; Zhang, Hongbin; Zou, Ling

All BWR RCIC (Reactor Core Isolation Cooling) systems and PWR AFW (Auxiliary Feed Water) systems use Terry turbine, which is composed of the wheel with turbine buckets and several groups of fixed nozzles and reversing chambers inside the turbine casing. The inlet steam is accelerated through the turbine nozzle and impacts on the wheel buckets, generating work to drive the RCIC pump. As part of the efforts to understand the unexpected “self-regulating” mode of the RCIC systems in Fukushima accidents and extend BWR RCIC and PWR AFW operational range and flexibility, mechanistic models for the Terry turbine, based on Sandiamore » National Laboratories’ original work, has been developed and implemented in the RELAP-7 code to simulate the RCIC system. RELAP-7 is a new reactor system code currently under development with the funding support from U.S. Department of Energy. The RELAP-7 code is a fully implicit code and the preconditioned Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov (JFNK) method is used to solve the discretized nonlinear system. This paper presents a set of analytical models for simulating the flow through the Terry turbine nozzles when inlet fluid is pure steam. The implementation of the models into RELAP-7 will be briefly discussed. In the Sandia model, the turbine bucket inlet velocity is provided according to a reduced-order model, which was obtained from a large number of CFD simulations. In this work, we propose an alternative method, using an under-expanded jet model to obtain the velocity and thermodynamic conditions for the turbine bucket inlet. The models include both adiabatic expansion process inside the nozzle and free expansion process out of the nozzle to reach the ambient pressure. The combined models are able to predict the steam mass flow rate and supersonic velocity to the Terry turbine bucket entrance, which are the necessary input conditions for the Terry Turbine rotor model. The nozzle analytical models were validated with experimental data and benchmarked with CFD simulations. The analytical models generally agree well with the experimental data and CFD simulations. The analytical models are suitable for implementation into a reactor system analysis code or severe accident code as part of mechanistic and dynamical models to understand the RCIC behaviors. The cases with two-phase flow at the turbine inlet will be pursued in future work.« less

Modeling the human Nav1.5 sodium channel: structural and mechanistic insights of ion permeation and drug blockade

PubMed Central

Ahmed, Marawan; Jalily Hasani, Horia; Ganesan, Aravindhan; Houghton, Michael; Barakat, Khaled

2017-01-01

Abnormalities in the human Nav1.5 (hNav1.5) voltage-gated sodium ion channel (VGSC) are associated with a wide range of cardiac problems and diseases in humans. Current structural models of hNav1.5 are still far from complete and, consequently, their ability to study atomistic interactions of this channel is very limited. Here, we report a comprehensive atomistic model of the hNav1.5 ion channel, constructed using homology modeling technique and refined through long molecular dynamics simulations (680 ns) in the lipid membrane bilayer. Our model was comprehensively validated by using reported mutagenesis data, comparisons with previous models, and binding to a panel of known hNav1.5 blockers. The relatively long classical MD simulation was sufficient to observe a natural sodium permeation event across the channel’s selectivity filters to reach the channel’s central cavity, together with the identification of a unique role of the lysine residue. Electrostatic potential calculations revealed the existence of two potential binding sites for the sodium ion at the outer selectivity filters. To obtain further mechanistic insight into the permeation event from the central cavity to the intracellular region of the channel, we further employed “state-of-the-art” steered molecular dynamics (SMD) simulations. Our SMD simulations revealed two different pathways through which a sodium ion can be expelled from the channel. Further, the SMD simulations identified the key residues that are likely to control these processes. Finally, we discuss the potential binding modes of a panel of known hNav1.5 blockers to our structural model of hNav1.5. We believe that the data presented here will enhance our understanding of the structure–property relationships of the hNav1.5 ion channel and the underlying molecular mechanisms in sodium ion permeation and drug interactions. The results presented here could be useful for designing safer drugs that do not block the hNav1.5 channel. PMID:28831242

Modeling languages for biochemical network simulation: reaction vs equation based approaches.

PubMed

Wiechert, Wolfgang; Noack, Stephan; Elsheikh, Atya

2010-01-01

Biochemical network modeling and simulation is an essential task in any systems biology project. The systems biology markup language (SBML) was established as a standardized model exchange language for mechanistic models. A specific strength of SBML is that numerous tools for formulating, processing, simulation and analysis of models are freely available. Interestingly, in the field of multidisciplinary simulation, the problem of model exchange between different simulation tools occurred much earlier. Several general modeling languages like Modelica have been developed in the 1990s. Modelica enables an equation based modular specification of arbitrary hierarchical differential algebraic equation models. Moreover, libraries for special application domains can be rapidly developed. This contribution compares the reaction based approach of SBML with the equation based approach of Modelica and explains the specific strengths of both tools. Several biological examples illustrating essential SBML and Modelica concepts are given. The chosen criteria for tool comparison are flexibility for constraint specification, different modeling flavors, hierarchical, modular and multidisciplinary modeling. Additionally, support for spatially distributed systems, event handling and network analysis features is discussed. As a major result it is shown that the choice of the modeling tool has a strong impact on the expressivity of the specified models but also strongly depends on the requirements of the application context.

Mechanism of Action of Cyclophilin A Explored by Metadynamics Simulations

PubMed Central

Leone, Vanessa; Lattanzi, Gianluca; Molteni, Carla; Carloni, Paolo

2009-01-01

Trans/cis prolyl isomerisation is involved in several biological processes, including the development of numerous diseases. In the HIV-1 capsid protein (CA), such a process takes place in the uncoating and recruitment of the virion and is catalyzed by cyclophilin A (CypA). Here, we use metadynamics simulations to investigate the isomerization of CA's model substrate HAGPIA in water and in its target protein CypA. Our results allow us to propose a novel mechanistic hypothesis, which is finally consistent with all of the available molecular biology data. PMID:19282959

BIOB: a mathematical model for the biodegradation of low solubility hydrocarbons.

PubMed

Geng, Xiaolong; Boufadel, Michel C; Personna, Yves R; Lee, Ken; Tsao, David; Demicco, Erik D

2014-06-15

Modeling oil biodegradation is an important step in predicting the long term fate of oil on beaches. Unfortunately, existing models do not account mechanistically for environmental factors, such as pore water nutrient concentration, affecting oil biodegradation, rather in an empirical way. We present herein a numerical model, BIOB, to simulate the biodegradation of insoluble attached hydrocarbon. The model was used to simulate an experimental oil spill on a sand beach. The biodegradation kinetic parameters were estimated by fitting the model to the experimental data of alkanes and aromatics. It was found that parameter values are comparable to their counterparts for the biodegradation of dissolved organic matter. The biodegradation of aromatics was highly affected by the decay of aromatic biomass, probably due to its low growth rate. Numerical simulations revealed that the biodegradation rate increases by 3-4 folds when the nutrient concentration is increased from 0.2 to 2.0 mg N/L. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Automatising the analysis of stochastic biochemical time-series

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background Mathematical and computational modelling of biochemical systems has seen a lot of effort devoted to the definition and implementation of high-performance mechanistic simulation frameworks. Within these frameworks it is possible to analyse complex models under a variety of configurations, eventually selecting the best setting of, e.g., parameters for a target system. Motivation This operational pipeline relies on the ability to interpret the predictions of a model, often represented as simulation time-series. Thus, an efficient data analysis pipeline is crucial to automatise time-series analyses, bearing in mind that errors in this phase might mislead the modeller's conclusions. Results For this reason we have developed an intuitive framework-independent Python tool to automate analyses common to a variety of modelling approaches. These include assessment of useful non-trivial statistics for simulation ensembles, e.g., estimation of master equations. Intuitive and domain-independent batch scripts will allow the researcher to automatically prepare reports, thus speeding up the usual model-definition, testing and refinement pipeline. PMID:26051821

WholeCellSimDB: a hybrid relational/HDF database for whole-cell model predictions.

PubMed

Karr, Jonathan R; Phillips, Nolan C; Covert, Markus W

2014-01-01

Mechanistic 'whole-cell' models are needed to develop a complete understanding of cell physiology. However, extracting biological insights from whole-cell models requires running and analyzing large numbers of simulations. We developed WholeCellSimDB, a database for organizing whole-cell simulations. WholeCellSimDB was designed to enable researchers to search simulation metadata to identify simulations for further analysis, and quickly slice and aggregate simulation results data. In addition, WholeCellSimDB enables users to share simulations with the broader research community. The database uses a hybrid relational/hierarchical data format architecture to efficiently store and retrieve both simulation setup metadata and results data. WholeCellSimDB provides a graphical Web-based interface to search, browse, plot and export simulations; a JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) Web service to retrieve data for Web-based visualizations; a command-line interface to deposit simulations; and a Python API to retrieve data for advanced analysis. Overall, we believe WholeCellSimDB will help researchers use whole-cell models to advance basic biological science and bioengineering. http://www.wholecellsimdb.org SOURCE CODE REPOSITORY: URL: http://github.com/CovertLab/WholeCellSimDB. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

Use of mechanistic simulations as a quantitative risk-ranking tool within the quality by design framework.

PubMed

Stocker, Elena; Toschkoff, Gregor; Sacher, Stephan; Khinast, Johannes G

2014-11-20

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the use of computer simulations for generating quantitative knowledge as a basis for risk ranking and mechanistic process understanding, as required by ICH Q9 on quality risk management systems. In this specific publication, the main focus is the demonstration of a risk assessment workflow, including a computer simulation for the generation of mechanistic understanding of active tablet coating in a pan coater. Process parameter screening studies are statistically planned under consideration of impacts on a potentially critical quality attribute, i.e., coating mass uniformity. Based on computer simulation data the process failure mode and effects analysis of the risk factors is performed. This results in a quantitative criticality assessment of process parameters and the risk priority evaluation of failure modes. The factor for a quantitative reassessment of the criticality and risk priority is the coefficient of variation, which represents the coating mass uniformity. The major conclusion drawn from this work is a successful demonstration of the integration of computer simulation in the risk management workflow leading to an objective and quantitative risk assessment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Mechanistic species distribution modelling as a link between physiology and conservation.

PubMed

Evans, Tyler G; Diamond, Sarah E; Kelly, Morgan W

2015-01-01

Climate change conservation planning relies heavily on correlative species distribution models that estimate future areas of occupancy based on environmental conditions encountered in present-day ranges. The approach benefits from rapid assessment of vulnerability over a large number of organisms, but can have poor predictive power when transposed to novel environments and reveals little in the way of causal mechanisms that define changes in species distribution or abundance. Having conservation planning rely largely on this single approach also increases the risk of policy failure. Mechanistic models that are parameterized with physiological information are expected to be more robust when extrapolating distributions to future environmental conditions and can identify physiological processes that set range boundaries. Implementation of mechanistic species distribution models requires knowledge of how environmental change influences physiological performance, and because this information is currently restricted to a comparatively small number of well-studied organisms, use of mechanistic modelling in the context of climate change conservation is limited. In this review, we propose that the need to develop mechanistic models that incorporate physiological data presents an opportunity for physiologists to contribute more directly to climate change conservation and advance the field of conservation physiology. We begin by describing the prevalence of species distribution modelling in climate change conservation, highlighting the benefits and drawbacks of both mechanistic and correlative approaches. Next, we emphasize the need to expand mechanistic models and discuss potential metrics of physiological performance suitable for integration into mechanistic models. We conclude by summarizing other factors, such as the need to consider demography, limiting broader application of mechanistic models in climate change conservation. Ideally, modellers, physiologists and conservation practitioners would work collaboratively to build models, interpret results and consider conservation management options, and articulating this need here may help to stimulate collaboration.

Computational modeling of carbohydrate recognition in protein complex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishida, Toyokazu

2017-11-01

To understand the mechanistic principle of carbohydrate recognition in proteins, we propose a systematic computational modeling strategy to identify complex carbohydrate chain onto the reduced 2D free energy surface (2D-FES), determined by MD sampling combined with QM/MM energy corrections. In this article, we first report a detailed atomistic simulation study of the norovirus capsid proteins with carbohydrate antigens based on ab initio QM/MM combined with MD-FEP simulations. The present result clearly shows that the binding geometries of complex carbohydrate antigen are determined not by one single, rigid carbohydrate structure, but rather by the sum of averaged conformations mapped onto the minimum free energy region of QM/MM 2D-FES.

Umbrella Sampling and X-ray Crystallographic Analysis Unveil an Arg-Asp Gate Facilitating Inhibitor Binding Inside Phosphopantetheine Adenylyltransferase Allosteric Cleft.

PubMed

Mondal, A; Chatterjee, R; Datta, S

2018-02-08

Phosphopantetheine adenylyltransferase (PPAT) is a rate-limiting enzyme essential for biosynthesis of coenzyme A (CoA), which in turn is responsible to regulate the secretion of exotoxins via type III secretion system in Pseudomonas aeruginosa, causing severe health concerns ranging from nosocomial infections to respiratory failure. Acetyl coenzyme A (AcCoA) is a newly reported inhibitor of PPAT, believed to regulate the cellular levels of CoA and thereby the pathogenesis. Very little is known so far regarding the mechanistic details of AcCoA binding inside PPAT-binding cleft. Herein, we have used extensive umbrella sampling simulations to decipher mechanistic insight into the inhibitor accommodation inside the binding cavity. We found that R90 and D94 residues act like a gate near the binding cavity to accommodate and stabilize the incoming ligand. Mutational models concerning these residues also show considerable difference in AcCoA-binding thermodynamics. To substantiate our findings, we have solved the first crystal structure of apo-PPAT from P. aeruginosa, which also found to agree with the simulation results. Collectively, these results describe the mechanistic details of accommodation of inhibitor molecule inside PPAT-binding cavity and also offer valuable insight into regulating cellular levels of CoA/AcCoA and thus controlling the pathogenicity.

Do rising temperatures always increase forest productivity? Interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, cloudiness and soil texture on tree species growth and competition

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Brian R. Miranda; Arjan M.G. De Bruijn; Brian R. Sturtevant; Mark E. Kubiske

2017-01-01

Forest landscape models (FLM) are increasingly used to project the effects of climate change on forested landscapes, yet most use phenomenological approaches with untested assumptions about future forest dynamics. We used a FLM that relies on first principles to mechanistically simulate growth (LANDIS-II with PnET-Succession) to systematically explore how landscapes...

Quantitative evaluation of simulated functional brain networks in graph theoretical analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Won Hee; Bullmore, Ed; Frangou, Sophia

2017-02-01

There is increasing interest in the potential of whole-brain computational models to provide mechanistic insights into resting-state brain networks. It is therefore important to determine the degree to which computational models reproduce the topological features of empirical functional brain networks. We used empirical connectivity data derived from diffusion spectrum and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data from healthy individuals. Empirical and simulated functional networks, constrained by structural connectivity, were defined based on 66 brain anatomical regions (nodes). Simulated functional data were generated using the Kuramoto model in which each anatomical region acts as a phase oscillator. Network topology was studied using graph theory in the empirical and simulated data. The difference (relative error) between graph theory measures derived from empirical and simulated data was then estimated. We found that simulated data can be used with confidence to model graph measures of global network organization at different dynamic states and highlight the sensitive dependence of the solutions obtained in simulated data on the specified connection densities. This study provides a method for the quantitative evaluation and external validation of graph theory metrics derived from simulated data that can be used to inform future study designs. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Structurally detailed coarse-grained model for Sec-facilitated co-translational protein translocation and membrane integration

PubMed Central

Miller, Thomas F.

2017-01-01

We present a coarse-grained simulation model that is capable of simulating the minute-timescale dynamics of protein translocation and membrane integration via the Sec translocon, while retaining sufficient chemical and structural detail to capture many of the sequence-specific interactions that drive these processes. The model includes accurate geometric representations of the ribosome and Sec translocon, obtained directly from experimental structures, and interactions parameterized from nearly 200 μs of residue-based coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations. A protocol for mapping amino-acid sequences to coarse-grained beads enables the direct simulation of trajectories for the co-translational insertion of arbitrary polypeptide sequences into the Sec translocon. The model reproduces experimentally observed features of membrane protein integration, including the efficiency with which polypeptide domains integrate into the membrane, the variation in integration efficiency upon single amino-acid mutations, and the orientation of transmembrane domains. The central advantage of the model is that it connects sequence-level protein features to biological observables and timescales, enabling direct simulation for the mechanistic analysis of co-translational integration and for the engineering of membrane proteins with enhanced membrane integration efficiency. PMID:28328943

LASSIM-A network inference toolbox for genome-wide mechanistic modeling.

PubMed

Magnusson, Rasmus; Mariotti, Guido Pio; Köpsén, Mattias; Lövfors, William; Gawel, Danuta R; Jörnsten, Rebecka; Linde, Jörg; Nordling, Torbjörn E M; Nyman, Elin; Schulze, Sylvie; Nestor, Colm E; Zhang, Huan; Cedersund, Gunnar; Benson, Mikael; Tjärnberg, Andreas; Gustafsson, Mika

2017-06-01

Recent technological advancements have made time-resolved, quantitative, multi-omics data available for many model systems, which could be integrated for systems pharmacokinetic use. Here, we present large-scale simulation modeling (LASSIM), which is a novel mathematical tool for performing large-scale inference using mechanistically defined ordinary differential equations (ODE) for gene regulatory networks (GRNs). LASSIM integrates structural knowledge about regulatory interactions and non-linear equations with multiple steady state and dynamic response expression datasets. The rationale behind LASSIM is that biological GRNs can be simplified using a limited subset of core genes that are assumed to regulate all other gene transcription events in the network. The LASSIM method is implemented as a general-purpose toolbox using the PyGMO Python package to make the most of multicore computers and high performance clusters, and is available at https://gitlab.com/Gustafsson-lab/lassim. As a method, LASSIM works in two steps, where it first infers a non-linear ODE system of the pre-specified core gene expression. Second, LASSIM in parallel optimizes the parameters that model the regulation of peripheral genes by core system genes. We showed the usefulness of this method by applying LASSIM to infer a large-scale non-linear model of naïve Th2 cell differentiation, made possible by integrating Th2 specific bindings, time-series together with six public and six novel siRNA-mediated knock-down experiments. ChIP-seq showed significant overlap for all tested transcription factors. Next, we performed novel time-series measurements of total T-cells during differentiation towards Th2 and verified that our LASSIM model could monitor those data significantly better than comparable models that used the same Th2 bindings. In summary, the LASSIM toolbox opens the door to a new type of model-based data analysis that combines the strengths of reliable mechanistic models with truly systems-level data. We demonstrate the power of this approach by inferring a mechanistically motivated, genome-wide model of the Th2 transcription regulatory system, which plays an important role in several immune related diseases.

Single-cell-based computer simulation of the oxygen-dependent tumour response to irradiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harting, Christine; Peschke, Peter; Borkenstein, Klaus; Karger, Christian P.

2007-08-01

Optimization of treatment plans in radiotherapy requires the knowledge of tumour control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Mathematical models may help to obtain quantitative estimates of TCP and NTCP. A single-cell-based computer simulation model is presented, which simulates tumour growth and radiation response on the basis of the response of the constituting cells. The model contains oxic, hypoxic and necrotic tumour cells as well as capillary cells which are considered as sources of a radial oxygen profile. Survival of tumour cells is calculated by the linear quadratic model including the modified response due to the local oxygen concentration. The model additionally includes cell proliferation, hypoxia-induced angiogenesis, apoptosis and resorption of inactivated tumour cells. By selecting different degrees of angiogenesis, the model allows the simulation of oxic as well as hypoxic tumours having distinctly different oxygen distributions. The simulation model showed that poorly oxygenated tumours exhibit an increased radiation tolerance. Inter-tumoural variation of radiosensitivity flattens the dose response curve. This effect is enhanced by proliferation between fractions. Intra-tumoural radiosensitivity variation does not play a significant role. The model may contribute to the mechanistic understanding of the influence of biological tumour parameters on TCP. It can in principle be validated in radiation experiments with experimental tumours.

Scalable Parameter Estimation for Genome-Scale Biochemical Reaction Networks

PubMed Central

Kaltenbacher, Barbara; Hasenauer, Jan

2017-01-01

Mechanistic mathematical modeling of biochemical reaction networks using ordinary differential equation (ODE) models has improved our understanding of small- and medium-scale biological processes. While the same should in principle hold for large- and genome-scale processes, the computational methods for the analysis of ODE models which describe hundreds or thousands of biochemical species and reactions are missing so far. While individual simulations are feasible, the inference of the model parameters from experimental data is computationally too intensive. In this manuscript, we evaluate adjoint sensitivity analysis for parameter estimation in large scale biochemical reaction networks. We present the approach for time-discrete measurement and compare it to state-of-the-art methods used in systems and computational biology. Our comparison reveals a significantly improved computational efficiency and a superior scalability of adjoint sensitivity analysis. The computational complexity is effectively independent of the number of parameters, enabling the analysis of large- and genome-scale models. Our study of a comprehensive kinetic model of ErbB signaling shows that parameter estimation using adjoint sensitivity analysis requires a fraction of the computation time of established methods. The proposed method will facilitate mechanistic modeling of genome-scale cellular processes, as required in the age of omics. PMID:28114351

Toxicokinetic and Dosimetry Modeling Tools for Exposure ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

New technologies and in vitro testing approaches have been valuable additions to risk assessments that have historically relied solely on in vivo test results. Compared to in vivo methods, in vitro high throughput screening (HTS) assays are less expensive, faster and can provide mechanistic insights on chemical action. However, extrapolating from in vitro chemical concentrations to target tissue or blood concentrations in vivo is fraught with uncertainties, and modeling is dependent upon pharmacokinetic variables not measured in in vitro assays. To address this need, new tools have been created for characterizing, simulating, and evaluating chemical toxicokinetics. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models provide estimates of chemical exposures that produce potentially hazardous tissue concentrations, while tissue microdosimetry PK models relate whole-body chemical exposures to cell-scale concentrations. These tools rely on high-throughput in vitro measurements, and successful methods exist for pharmaceutical compounds that determine PK from limited in vitro measurements and chemical structure-derived property predictions. These high throughput (HT) methods provide a more rapid and less resource–intensive alternative to traditional PK model development. We have augmented these in vitro data with chemical structure-based descriptors and mechanistic tissue partitioning models to construct HTPBPK models for over three hundred environmental and pharmace

Detailed qualitative dynamic knowledge representation using a BioNetGen model of TLR-4 signaling and preconditioning.

PubMed

An, Gary C; Faeder, James R

2009-01-01

Intracellular signaling/synthetic pathways are being increasingly extensively characterized. However, while these pathways can be displayed in static diagrams, in reality they exist with a degree of dynamic complexity that is responsible for heterogeneous cellular behavior. Multiple parallel pathways exist and interact concurrently, limiting the ability to integrate the various identified mechanisms into a cohesive whole. Computational methods have been suggested as a means of concatenating this knowledge to aid in the understanding of overall system dynamics. Since the eventual goal of biomedical research is the identification and development of therapeutic modalities, computational representation must have sufficient detail to facilitate this 'engineering' process. Adding to the challenge, this type of representation must occur in a perpetual state of incomplete knowledge. We present a modeling approach to address this challenge that is both detailed and qualitative. This approach is termed 'dynamic knowledge representation,' and is intended to be an integrated component of the iterative cycle of scientific discovery. BioNetGen (BNG), a software platform for modeling intracellular signaling pathways, was used to model the toll-like receptor 4 (TLR-4) signal transduction cascade. The informational basis of the model was a series of reference papers on modulation of (TLR-4) signaling, and some specific primary research papers to aid in the characterization of specific mechanistic steps in the pathway. This model was detailed with respect to the components of the pathway represented, but qualitative with respect to the specific reaction coefficients utilized to execute the reactions. Responsiveness to simulated lipopolysaccharide (LPS) administration was measured by tumor necrosis factor (TNF) production. Simulation runs included evaluation of initial dose-dependent response to LPS administration at 10, 100, 1000 and 10,000, and a subsequent examination of preconditioning behavior with increasing LPS at 10, 100, 1000 and 10,000 and a secondary dose of LPS at 10,000 administered at approximately 27h of simulated time. Simulations of 'knockout' versions of the model allowed further examination of the interactions within the signaling cascade. The model demonstrated a dose-dependent TNF response curve to increasing stimulus by LPS. Preconditioning simulations demonstrated a similar dose-dependency of preconditioning doses leading to attenuation of response to subsequent LPS challenge - a 'tolerance' dynamic. These responses match dynamics reported in the literature. Furthermore, the simulated 'knockout' results suggested the existence and need for dual negative feedback control mechanisms, represented by the zinc ring-finger protein A20 and inhibitor kappa B proteins (IkappaB), in order for both effective attenuation of the initial stimulus signal and subsequent preconditioned 'tolerant' behavior. We present an example of detailed, qualitative dynamic knowledge representation using the TLR-4 signaling pathway, its control mechanisms and overall behavior with respect to preconditioning. The intent of this approach is to demonstrate a method of translating the extensive mechanistic knowledge being generated at the basic science level into an executable framework that can provide a means of 'conceptual model verification.' This allows for both the 'checking' of the dynamic consequences of a mechanistic hypothesis and the creation of a modular component of an overall model directed at the engineering goal of biomedical research. It is hoped that this paper will increase the use of knowledge representation and communication in this fashion, and facilitate the concatenation and integration of community-wide knowledge.

A Mechanistic-Based Healing Model for Self-Healing Glass Seals Used in Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Wei; Sun, Xin; Stephens, Elizabeth V.

The usage of self-healing glass as hermetic seals is a recent advancement in sealing technology development for the planar solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs). Because of its capability of restoring the mechanical properties at elevated temperatures, the self-healing glass seal is expected to provide high reliability in maintaining the long-term structural integrity and functionality of SOFCs. In order to accommodate the design and to evaluate the effectiveness of such engineering seals under various thermo-mechanical operating conditions, computational modeling framework needs to be developed to accurately capture and predict the healing behavior of the glass material. In the present work, amore » mechanistic-based two-stage model was developed to study the stress and temperature-dependent crack healing of the self-healing glass materials. The model was first calibrated by experimental measurements combined with the kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) simulation results and then implemented into the finite element analysis (FEA). The effects of various factors, i.e. stress, temperature, crack morphology, on the healing behavior of the glass were investigated and discussed.« less

Semi-mechanistic autoinduction model of midazolam in critically ill patients: population pharmacokinetic analysis.

PubMed

Aoyama, T; Hirata, K; Yamamoto, Y; Yokota, H; Hayashi, H; Aoyama, Y; Matsumoto, Y

2016-08-01

Midazolam (MDZ) is commonly used for sedating critically ill patients. The daily dose required for adequate sedation increases in increments over 100 h after administration. The objectives of this study were to characterize the MDZ pharmacokinetics in critically ill patients and to describe the phenomenon of increasing daily dose by means of population pharmacokinetic analysis. Data were obtained from 30 patients treated in an intensive care unit. The patients received MDZ intravenously as a combination of bolus and continuous infusion. Serum MDZ concentration was assayed by high-performance liquid chromatography. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using the NONMEM software package. The alteration of clearance unexplained by demographic factors and clinical laboratory data was described as an autoinduction of MDZ clearance using a semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-enzyme turnover model. The final population pharmacokinetic model was a one-compartment model estimated by incorporating a semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-enzyme turnover model for clearance, taking autoinduction into account. A significant covariate for MDZ clearance was total bilirubin. An increase in total bilirubin indicated a reduction in MDZ clearance. From simulation using the population pharmacokinetic parameters obtained in this study, MDZ clearance increased 2·3 times compared with pre-induced clearance 100 h after the start of 12·5 mg/h continuous infusion. Autoinduction and total bilirubin were significant predictors of the clearance of MDZ in this population. Step-by-step dosage adjustment using this population pharmacokinetic model may be useful for establishing a MDZ dosage regimen in critically ill patients. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A three-dimensional simulation of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Takahashi, M.; Boville, B.A.

1992-06-15

A simulation of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) has been obtained using a three-dimensional mechanistic model of the stratosphere. The model is a simplified form of the NCAR CCM (Community Climate Model) in which the troposphere has been replaced with a specified geopotential distribution near the tropical tropopause and most of the physical parameterizations have been removed. A Kelvin wave and a Rossby-gravity wave are forced at the bottom boundary as in previous one- and two-dimensional models. The model reproduces most of the principal features of the observed QBO, as do previous models with lower dimensionality. The principal difference betweenmore » the present model and previous QBO models is that the wave propagation is explicitly represented, allowing wave-wave interactions to take place. It is found that these interactions significantly affect the simulated oscillation. The interaction of the Rossby-gravity waves with the Kelvin waves results in about twice as much easterly compared to westerly forcing being required in order to obtain a QBO. 26 refs., 12 figs.« less

Uncovering molecular processes in crystal nucleation and growth by using molecular simulation.

PubMed

Anwar, Jamshed; Zahn, Dirk

2011-02-25

Exploring nucleation processes by molecular simulation provides a mechanistic understanding at the atomic level and also enables kinetic and thermodynamic quantities to be estimated. However, whilst the potential for modeling crystal nucleation and growth processes is immense, there are specific technical challenges to modeling. In general, rare events, such as nucleation cannot be simulated using a direct "brute force" molecular dynamics approach. The limited time and length scales that are accessible by conventional molecular dynamics simulations have inspired a number of advances to tackle problems that were considered outside the scope of molecular simulation. While general insights and features could be explored from efficient generic models, new methods paved the way to realistic crystal nucleation scenarios. The association of single ions in solvent environments, the mechanisms of motif formation, ripening reactions, and the self-organization of nanocrystals can now be investigated at the molecular level. The analysis of interactions with growth-controlling additives gives a new understanding of functionalized nanocrystals and the precipitation of composite materials. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Improving representation of nitrogen uptake, allocation, and carbon assimilation in the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghimire, B.; Riley, W. J.; Koven, C.

2013-12-01

Nitrogen is the most important nutrient limiting plant carbon assimilation and growth, and is required for production of photosynthetic enzymes, growth and maintenance respiration, and maintaining cell structure. The forecasted rise in plant available nitrogen through atmospheric nitrogen deposition and the release of locked soil nitrogen by permafrost thaw in high latitude ecosystems is likely to result in an increase in plant productivity. However a mechanistic representation of plant nitrogen dynamics is lacking in earth system models. Most earth system models ignore the dynamic nature of plant nutrient uptake and allocation, and further lack tight coupling of below- and above-ground processes. In these models, the increase in nitrogen uptake does not translate to a corresponding increase in photosynthesis parameters, such as maximum Rubisco capacity and electron transfer rate. We present an improved modeling framework implemented in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) for dynamic plant nutrient uptake, and allocation to different plant parts, including leaf enzymes. This modeling framework relies on imposing a more realistic flexible carbon to nitrogen stoichiometric ratio for different plant parts. The model mechanistically responds to plant nitrogen uptake and leaf allocation though changes in photosynthesis parameters. We produce global simulations, and examine the impacts of the improved nitrogen cycling. The improved model is evaluated against multiple observations including TRY database of global plant traits, nitrogen fertilization observations and 15N tracer studies. Global simulations with this new version of CLM4.5 showed better agreement with the observations than the default CLM4.5-CN model, and captured the underlying mechanisms associated with plant nitrogen cycle.

Development of the simulation system {open_quotes}IMPACT{close_quotes} for analysis of nuclear power plant severe accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Naitoh, Masanori; Ujita, Hiroshi; Nagumo, Hiroichi

1997-07-01

The Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) has initiated a long-term program to develop the simulation system {open_quotes}IMPACT{close_quotes} for analysis of hypothetical severe accidents in nuclear power plants. IMPACT employs advanced methods of physical modeling and numerical computation, and can simulate a wide spectrum of senarios ranging from normal operation to hypothetical, beyond-design-basis-accident events. Designed as a large-scale system of interconnected, hierarchical modules, IMPACT`s distinguishing features include mechanistic models based on first principles and high speed simulation on parallel processing computers. The present plan is a ten-year program starting from 1993, consisting of the initial one-year of preparatory work followed bymore » three technical phases: Phase-1 for development of a prototype system; Phase-2 for completion of the simulation system, incorporating new achievements from basic studies; and Phase-3 for refinement through extensive verification and validation against test results and available real plant data.« less

Evaluation of Three Models for Simulating Pesticide Runoff from Irrigated Agricultural Fields.

PubMed

Zhang, Xuyang; Goh, Kean S

2015-11-01

Three models were evaluated for their accuracy in simulating pesticide runoff at the edge of agricultural fields: Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM), and OpusCZ. Modeling results on runoff volume, sediment erosion, and pesticide loss were compared with measurements taken from field studies. Models were also compared on their theoretical foundations and ease of use. For runoff events generated by sprinkler irrigation and rainfall, all models performed equally well with small errors in simulating water, sediment, and pesticide runoff. The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) were between 3 and 161%. For flood irrigation, OpusCZ simulated runoff and pesticide mass with the highest accuracy, followed by RZWQM and PRZM, likely owning to its unique hydrological algorithm for runoff simulations during flood irrigation. Simulation results from cold model runs by OpusCZ and RZWQM using measured values for model inputs matched closely to the observed values. The MAPE ranged from 28 to 384 and 42 to 168% for OpusCZ and RZWQM, respectively. These satisfactory model outputs showed the models' abilities in mimicking reality. Theoretical evaluations indicated that OpusCZ and RZWQM use mechanistic approaches for hydrology simulation, output data on a subdaily time-step, and were able to simulate management practices and subsurface flow via tile drainage. In contrast, PRZM operates at daily time-step and simulates surface runoff using the USDA Soil Conservation Service's curve number method. Among the three models, OpusCZ and RZWQM were suitable for simulating pesticide runoff in semiarid areas where agriculture is heavily dependent on irrigation. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Modeling greenhouse gas emissions from dairy farms.

PubMed

Rotz, C Alan

2017-11-15

Dairy farms have been identified as an important source of greenhouse gas emissions. Within the farm, important emissions include enteric CH 4 from the animals, CH 4 and N 2 O from manure in housing facilities during long-term storage and during field application, and N 2 O from nitrification and denitrification processes in the soil used to produce feed crops and pasture. Models using a wide range in level of detail have been developed to represent or predict these emissions. They include constant emission factors, variable process-related emission factors, empirical or statistical models, mechanistic process simulations, and life cycle assessment. To fully represent farm emissions, models representing the various emission sources must be integrated to capture the combined effects and interactions of all important components. Farm models have been developed using relationships across the full scale of detail, from constant emission factors to detailed mechanistic simulations. Simpler models, based upon emission factors and empirical relationships, tend to provide better tools for decision support, whereas more complex farm simulations provide better tools for research and education. To look beyond the farm boundaries, life cycle assessment provides an environmental accounting tool for quantifying and evaluating emissions over the full cycle, from producing the resources used on the farm through processing, distribution, consumption, and waste handling of the milk and dairy products produced. Models are useful for improving our understanding of farm processes and their interacting effects on greenhouse gas emissions. Through better understanding, they assist in the development and evaluation of mitigation strategies for reducing emissions and improving overall sustainability of dairy farms. The Authors. Published by the Federation of Animal Science Societies and Elsevier Inc. on behalf of the American Dairy Science Association®. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

A Systems Approach to Climate, Water and Diarrhea in Hubli-Dharward, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellor, J. E.; Zimmerman, J.

2014-12-01

Although evidence suggests that climate change will negatively impact water resources and hence diarrheal disease rates in the developing world, there is uncertainty surrounding prior studies. This is due to the complexity of the pathways by which climate impacts diarrhea rates making it difficult to develop interventions. Therefore, our goal was to develop a mechanistic systems approach that incorporates the complex climate, human, engineered and water systems to relate climate change to diarrhea rates under future climate scenarios.To do this, we developed an agent-based model (ABM). Our agents are households and children living in Hubli-Dharward, India. The model was informed with 15 months of weather, water quality, ethnographic and diarrhea incidence data. The model's front end is a stochastic weather simulator incorporating 15 global climate models to simulate rainfall and temperature. The water quality available to agents (residents) on a model "day" is a function of the simulated day's weather and is fully validated with field data. As with the field data, as the ambient temperature increases or it rains, the quality of water available to residents in the model deteriorates. The propensity for an resident to get diarrhea is calculated with an integrated Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment model with uncertainty simulated with a bootstrap method. Other factors include hand-washing, improved water sources, household water treatment and improved sanitation.The benefits of our approach are as follows: Our mechanistic method allows us to develop scientifically derived adaptation strategies. We can quantitatively link climate scenarios with diarrhea incidence over long time periods. We can explore the complex climate and water system dynamics, rank risk factor importance, examine a broad range of scenarios and identify tipping points. Our approach is modular and expandable such that new datasets can be integrated to study climate impacts on a larger scale. Our results indicate that climate change will have a serious effect on diarrhea incidence in the region. However, adaptation strategies including more reliable water supplies and household water treatment can mitigate these impacts.

Charge transfer in model peptides: obtaining Marcus parameters from molecular simulation.

PubMed

Heck, Alexander; Woiczikowski, P Benjamin; Kubař, Tomáš; Giese, Bernd; Elstner, Marcus; Steinbrecher, Thomas B

2012-02-23

Charge transfer within and between biomolecules remains a highly active field of biophysics. Due to the complexities of real systems, model compounds are a useful alternative to study the mechanistic fundamentals of charge transfer. In recent years, such model experiments have been underpinned by molecular simulation methods as well. In this work, we study electron hole transfer in helical model peptides by means of molecular dynamics simulations. A theoretical framework to extract Marcus parameters of charge transfer from simulations is presented. We find that the peptides form stable helical structures with sequence dependent small deviations from ideal PPII helices. We identify direct exposure of charged side chains to solvent as a cause of high reorganization energies, significantly larger than typical for electron transfer in proteins. This, together with small direct couplings, makes long-range superexchange electron transport in this system very slow. In good agreement with experiment, direct transfer between the terminal amino acid side chains can be dicounted in favor of a two-step hopping process if appropriate bridging groups exist. © 2012 American Chemical Society

A Unifying Mechanistic Model of Selective Attention in Spiking Neurons

PubMed Central

Bobier, Bruce; Stewart, Terrence C.; Eliasmith, Chris

2014-01-01

Visuospatial attention produces myriad effects on the activity and selectivity of cortical neurons. Spiking neuron models capable of reproducing a wide variety of these effects remain elusive. We present a model called the Attentional Routing Circuit (ARC) that provides a mechanistic description of selective attentional processing in cortex. The model is described mathematically and implemented at the level of individual spiking neurons, with the computations for performing selective attentional processing being mapped to specific neuron types and laminar circuitry. The model is used to simulate three studies of attention in macaque, and is shown to quantitatively match several observed forms of attentional modulation. Specifically, ARC demonstrates that with shifts of spatial attention, neurons may exhibit shifting and shrinking of receptive fields; increases in responses without changes in selectivity for non-spatial features (i.e. response gain), and; that the effect on contrast-response functions is better explained as a response-gain effect than as contrast-gain. Unlike past models, ARC embodies a single mechanism that unifies the above forms of attentional modulation, is consistent with a wide array of available data, and makes several specific and quantifiable predictions. PMID:24921249

Metabolic Adaptation to Muscle Ischemia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cabrera, Marco E.; Coon, Jennifer E.; Kalhan, Satish C.; Radhakrishnan, Krishnan; Saidel, Gerald M.; Stanley, William C.

2000-01-01

Although all tissues in the body can adapt to varying physiological/pathological conditions, muscle is the most adaptable. To understand the significance of cellular events and their role in controlling metabolic adaptations in complex physiological systems, it is necessary to link cellular and system levels by means of mechanistic computational models. The main objective of this work is to improve understanding of the regulation of energy metabolism during skeletal/cardiac muscle ischemia by combining in vivo experiments and quantitative models of metabolism. Our main focus is to investigate factors affecting lactate metabolism (e.g., NADH/NAD) and the inter-regulation between carbohydrate and fatty acid metabolism during a reduction in regional blood flow. A mechanistic mathematical model of energy metabolism has been developed to link cellular metabolic processes and their control mechanisms to tissue (skeletal muscle) and organ (heart) physiological responses. We applied this model to simulate the relationship between tissue oxygenation, redox state, and lactate metabolism in skeletal muscle. The model was validated using human data from published occlusion studies. Currently, we are investigating the difference in the responses to sudden vs. gradual onset ischemia in swine by combining in vivo experimental studies with computational models of myocardial energy metabolism during normal and ischemic conditions.

Seasonal variability of atmospheric tides in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere: meteor radar data and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhotelov, Dimitry; Becker, Erich; Stober, Gunter; Chau, Jorge L.

2018-06-01

Thermal tides play an important role in the global atmospheric dynamics and provide a key mechanism for the forcing of thermosphere-ionosphere dynamics from below. A method for extracting tidal contributions, based on the adaptive filtering, is applied to analyse multi-year observations of mesospheric winds from ground-based meteor radars located in northern Germany and Norway. The observed seasonal variability of tides is compared to simulations with the Kühlungsborn Mechanistic Circulation Model (KMCM). It is demonstrated that the model provides reasonable representation of the tidal amplitudes, though substantial differences from observations are also noticed. The limitations of applying a conventionally coarse-resolution model in combination with parametrisation of gravity waves are discussed. The work is aimed towards the development of an ionospheric model driven by the dynamics of the KMCM.

Shorebird Migration Patterns in Response to Climate Change: A Modeling Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James A.

2010-01-01

The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies offer new opportunities for the application of mechanistic models to predict how continental scale bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier studies, we explored the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers by simulating the movement patterns of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations as an indicator of the impacts of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds. We used an individual based, biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data, and biological field data. Mean stop-over durations and stop-over frequency with latitude predicted from our model for nominal cases were consistent with results reported in the literature and available field data. In this study, we take advantage of new computing capabilities enabled by recent GP-GPU computing paradigms and commodity hardware (general purchase computing on graphics processing units). Several aspects of our individual based (agent modeling) approach lend themselves well to GP-GPU computing. We have been able to allocate compute-intensive tasks to the graphics processing units, and now simulate ensembles of 400,000 birds at varying spatial resolutions along the central North American flyway. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect the processes underlying bird phenotypic plasticity responses to different climate change scenarios in the central U.S.

Chemical Kinetics for Bridging Molecular Mechanisms and Macroscopic Measurements of Amyloid Fibril Formation.

PubMed

Michaels, Thomas C T; Šarić, Anđela; Habchi, Johnny; Chia, Sean; Meisl, Georg; Vendruscolo, Michele; Dobson, Christopher M; Knowles, Tuomas P J

2018-04-20

Understanding how normally soluble peptides and proteins aggregate to form amyloid fibrils is central to many areas of modern biomolecular science, ranging from the development of functional biomaterials to the design of rational therapeutic strategies against increasingly prevalent medical conditions such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. As such, there is a great need to develop models to mechanistically describe how amyloid fibrils are formed from precursor peptides and proteins. Here we review and discuss how ideas and concepts from chemical reaction kinetics can help to achieve this objective. In particular, we show how a combination of theory, experiments, and computer simulations, based on chemical kinetics, provides a general formalism for uncovering, at the molecular level, the mechanistic steps that underlie the phenomenon of amyloid fibril formation.

Chemical Kinetics for Bridging Molecular Mechanisms and Macroscopic Measurements of Amyloid Fibril Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaels, Thomas C. T.; Šarić, Anđela; Habchi, Johnny; Chia, Sean; Meisl, Georg; Vendruscolo, Michele; Dobson, Christopher M.; Knowles, Tuomas P. J.

2018-04-01

Understanding how normally soluble peptides and proteins aggregate to form amyloid fibrils is central to many areas of modern biomolecular science, ranging from the development of functional biomaterials to the design of rational therapeutic strategies against increasingly prevalent medical conditions such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. As such, there is a great need to develop models to mechanistically describe how amyloid fibrils are formed from precursor peptides and proteins. Here we review and discuss how ideas and concepts from chemical reaction kinetics can help to achieve this objective. In particular, we show how a combination of theory, experiments, and computer simulations, based on chemical kinetics, provides a general formalism for uncovering, at the molecular level, the mechanistic steps that underlie the phenomenon of amyloid fibril formation.

A model of chromosome aberration induction: applications to space research.

PubMed

Ballarini, Francesca; Ottolenghi, Andrea

2005-10-01

A mechanistic model and Monte Carlo code simulating chromosome aberration induction in human lymphocytes is presented. The model is based on the assumption that aberrations arise from clustered DNA lesions and that only the free ends of clustered lesions created in neighboring chromosome territories or in the same territory can join and produce exchanges. The lesions are distributed in the cell nucleus according to the radiation track structure. Interphase chromosome territories are modeled as compact intranuclear regions with volumes proportional to the chromosome DNA contents. Both Giemsa staining and FISH painting can be simulated, and background aberrations can be taken into account. The good agreement with in vitro data provides validation of the model in terms of both the assumptions adopted and the simulation techniques. As an application in the field of space research, the model predictions were compared with aberration yields measured among crew members of long-term missions on board Mir and ISS, assuming an average radiation quality factor of 2.4. The agreement obtained also validated the model for in vivo exposure scenarios and suggested possible applications to the prediction of other relevant aberrations, typically translocations.

Assessing uncertainty in mechanistic models

Treesearch

Edwin J. Green; David W. MacFarlane; Harry T. Valentine

2000-01-01

Concern over potential global change has led to increased interest in the use of mechanistic models for predicting forest growth. The rationale for this interest is that empirical models may be of limited usefulness if environmental conditions change. Intuitively, we expect that mechanistic models, grounded as far as possible in an understanding of the biology of tree...

Mechanistic study of manganese-substituted glycerol dehydrogenase using a kinetic and thermodynamic analysis.

PubMed

Fang, Baishan; Niu, Jin; Ren, Hong; Guo, Yingxia; Wang, Shizhen

2014-01-01

Mechanistic insights regarding the activity enhancement of dehydrogenase by metal ion substitution were investigated by a simple method using a kinetic and thermodynamic analysis. By profiling the binding energy of both the substrate and product, the metal ion's role in catalysis enhancement was revealed. Glycerol dehydrogenase (GDH) from Klebsiella pneumoniae sp., which demonstrated an improvement in activity by the substitution of a zinc ion with a manganese ion, was used as a model for the mechanistic study of metal ion substitution. A kinetic model based on an ordered Bi-Bi mechanism was proposed considering the noncompetitive product inhibition of dihydroxyacetone (DHA) and the competitive product inhibition of NADH. By obtaining preliminary kinetic parameters of substrate and product inhibition, the number of estimated parameters was reduced from 10 to 4 for a nonlinear regression-based kinetic parameter estimation. The simulated values of time-concentration curves fit the experimental values well, with an average relative error of 11.5% and 12.7% for Mn-GDH and GDH, respectively. A comparison of the binding energy of enzyme ternary complex for Mn-GDH and GDH derived from kinetic parameters indicated that metal ion substitution accelerated the release of dioxyacetone. The metal ion's role in catalysis enhancement was explicated.

Mathematical Approaches to Understanding and Imaging Atrial Fibrillation: Significance for Mechanisms and Management

PubMed Central

Trayanova, Natalia A

2014-01-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia in humans. The mechanisms that govern AF initiation and persistence are highly complex, of dynamic nature, and involve interactions across multiple temporal and spatial scales in the atria. This articles aims to review the mathematical modeling and computer simulation approaches to understanding AF mechanisms and aiding in its management. Various atrial modeling approaches are presented, with descriptions of the methodological basis and advancements in both lower-dimensional and realistic geometry models. A review of the most significant mechanistic insights made by atrial simulations is provided. The article showcases the contributions that atrial modeling and simulation have made not only to our understanding of the pathophysiology of atrial arrhythmias, but also to the development of AF management approaches. A summary of the future developments envisioned for the field of atrial simulation and modeling is also presented. The review contends that computational models of the atria assembled with data from clinical imaging modalities that incorporate electrophysiological and structural remodeling could become a first line of screening for new AF therapies and approaches, new diagnostic developments, and new methods for arrhythmia prevention. PMID:24763468

Can ligand addition to soil enhance Cd phytoextraction? A mechanistic model study.

PubMed

Lin, Zhongbing; Schneider, André; Nguyen, Christophe; Sterckeman, Thibault

2014-11-01

Phytoextraction is a potential method for cleaning Cd-polluted soils. Ligand addition to soil is expected to enhance Cd phytoextraction. However, experimental results show that this addition has contradictory effects on plant Cd uptake. A mechanistic model simulating the reaction kinetics (adsorption on solid phase, complexation in solution), transport (convection, diffusion) and root absorption (symplastic, apoplastic) of Cd and its complexes in soil was developed. This was used to calculate plant Cd uptake with and without ligand addition in a great number of combinations of soil, ligand and plant characteristics, varying the parameters within defined domains. Ligand addition generally strongly reduced hydrated Cd (Cd(2+)) concentration in soil solution through Cd complexation. Dissociation of Cd complex ([Formula: see text]) could not compensate for this reduction, which greatly lowered Cd(2+) symplastic uptake by roots. The apoplastic uptake of [Formula: see text] was not sufficient to compensate for the decrease in symplastic uptake. This explained why in the majority of the cases, ligand addition resulted in the reduction of the simulated Cd phytoextraction. A few results showed an enhanced phytoextraction in very particular conditions (strong plant transpiration with high apoplastic Cd uptake capacity), but this enhancement was very limited, making chelant-enhanced phytoextraction poorly efficient for Cd.

Mechanistic pathways of recognition of a solvent-inaccessible cavity of protein by a ligand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, Jagannath; Pandit, Subhendu; Dandekar, Bhupendra; Vallurupalli, Pramodh

One of the puzzling questions in the realm of protein-ligand recognition is how a solvent-inaccessible hydrophobic cavity of a protein gets recognized by a ligand. We address the topic by simulating, for the first time, the complete binding process of benzene from aqueous media to the well-known buried cavity of L99A T4 Lysozyme at an atomistic resolution. Our multiple unbiased microsecond-long trajectories, which were completely blind to the location of target binding site, are able to unequivocally identify the kinetic pathways along which benzene molecule meanders across the solvent and protein and ultimately spontaneously recognizes the deeply buried cavity of L99A T4 Lysozyme at an accurate precision. Our simulation, combined with analysis based on markov state model and free energy calculation, reveals that there are more than one distinct ligand binding pathways. Intriguingly, each of the identified pathways involves the transient opening of a channel of the protein prior to ligand binding. The work will also decipher rich mechanistic details on unbinding kinetics of the ligand as obtained from enhanced sampling techniques.

DOUBLE SHELL TANK (DST) HYDROXIDE DEPLETION MODEL FOR CARBON DIOXIDE ABSORPTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

OGDEN DM; KIRCH NW

2007-10-31

This document generates a supernatant hydroxide ion depletion model based on mechanistic principles. The carbon dioxide absorption mechanistic model is developed in this report. The report also benchmarks the model against historical tank supernatant hydroxide data and vapor space carbon dioxide data. A comparison of the newly generated mechanistic model with previously applied empirical hydroxide depletion equations is also performed.

Simulating the effects of climate change on the distribution of an invasive plant, using a high resolution, local scale, mechanistic approach: challenges and insights.

PubMed

Fennell, Mark; Murphy, James E; Gallagher, Tommy; Osborne, Bruce

2013-04-01

The growing economic and ecological damage associated with biological invasions, which will likely be exacerbated by climate change, necessitates improved projections of invasive spread. Generally, potential changes in species distribution are investigated using climate envelope models; however, the reliability of such models has been questioned and they are not suitable for use at local scales. At this scale, mechanistic models are more appropriate. This paper discusses some key requirements for mechanistic models and utilises a newly developed model (PSS[gt]) that incorporates the influence of habitat type and related features (e.g., roads and rivers), as well as demographic processes and propagule dispersal dynamics, to model climate induced changes in the distribution of an invasive plant (Gunnera tinctoria) at a local scale. A new methodology is introduced, dynamic baseline benchmarking, which distinguishes climate-induced alterations in species distributions from other potential drivers of change. Using this approach, it was concluded that climate change, based on IPCC and C4i projections, has the potential to increase the spread-rate and intensity of G. tinctoria invasions. Increases in the number of individuals were primarily due to intensification of invasion in areas already invaded or in areas projected to be invaded in the dynamic baseline scenario. Temperature had the largest influence on changes in plant distributions. Water availability also had a large influence and introduced the most uncertainty in the projections. Additionally, due to the difficulties of parameterising models such as this, the process has been streamlined by utilising methods for estimating unknown variables and selecting only essential parameters. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Body Fineness Ratio as a Predictor of Maximum Prolonged-Swimming Speed in Coral Reef Fishes

PubMed Central

Walker, Jeffrey A.; Alfaro, Michael E.; Noble, Mae M.; Fulton, Christopher J.

2013-01-01

The ability to sustain high swimming speeds is believed to be an important factor affecting resource acquisition in fishes. While we have gained insights into how fin morphology and motion influences swimming performance in coral reef fishes, the role of other traits, such as body shape, remains poorly understood. We explore the ability of two mechanistic models of the causal relationship between body fineness ratio and endurance swimming-performance to predict maximum prolonged-swimming speed (Umax) among 84 fish species from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. A drag model, based on semi-empirical data on the drag of rigid, submerged bodies of revolution, was applied to species that employ pectoral-fin propulsion with a rigid body at U max. An alternative model, based on the results of computer simulations of optimal shape in self-propelled undulating bodies, was applied to the species that swim by body-caudal-fin propulsion at Umax. For pectoral-fin swimmers, Umax increased with fineness, and the rate of increase decreased with fineness, as predicted by the drag model. While the mechanistic and statistical models of the relationship between fineness and Umax were very similar, the mechanistic (and statistical) model explained only a small fraction of the variance in Umax. For body-caudal-fin swimmers, we found a non-linear relationship between fineness and Umax, which was largely negative over most of the range of fineness. This pattern fails to support either predictions from the computational models or standard functional interpretations of body shape variation in fishes. Our results suggest that the widespread hypothesis that a more optimal fineness increases endurance-swimming performance via reduced drag should be limited to fishes that swim with rigid bodies. PMID:24204575

Towards a Computational Framework for Modeling the Impact of Aortic Coarctations Upon Left Ventricular Load

PubMed Central

Karabelas, Elias; Gsell, Matthias A. F.; Augustin, Christoph M.; Marx, Laura; Neic, Aurel; Prassl, Anton J.; Goubergrits, Leonid; Kuehne, Titus; Plank, Gernot

2018-01-01

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models of blood flow in the left ventricle (LV) and aorta are important tools for analyzing the mechanistic links between myocardial deformation and flow patterns. Typically, the use of image-based kinematic CFD models prevails in applications such as predicting the acute response to interventions which alter LV afterload conditions. However, such models are limited in their ability to analyze any impacts upon LV load or key biomarkers known to be implicated in driving remodeling processes as LV function is not accounted for in a mechanistic sense. This study addresses these limitations by reporting on progress made toward a novel electro-mechano-fluidic (EMF) model that represents the entire physics of LV electromechanics (EM) based on first principles. A biophysically detailed finite element (FE) model of LV EM was coupled with a FE-based CFD solver for moving domains using an arbitrary Eulerian-Lagrangian (ALE) formulation. Two clinical cases of patients suffering from aortic coarctations (CoA) were built and parameterized based on clinical data under pre-treatment conditions. For one patient case simulations under post-treatment conditions after geometric repair of CoA by a virtual stenting procedure were compared against pre-treatment results. Numerical stability of the approach was demonstrated by analyzing mesh quality and solver performance under the significantly large deformations of the LV blood pool. Further, computational tractability and compatibility with clinical time scales were investigated by performing strong scaling benchmarks up to 1536 compute cores. The overall cost of the entire workflow for building, fitting and executing EMF simulations was comparable to those reported for image-based kinematic models, suggesting that EMF models show potential of evolving into a viable clinical research tool. PMID:29892227

Track structure modeling in liquid water: A review of the Geant4-DNA very low energy extension of the Geant4 Monte Carlo simulation toolkit.

PubMed

Bernal, M A; Bordage, M C; Brown, J M C; Davídková, M; Delage, E; El Bitar, Z; Enger, S A; Francis, Z; Guatelli, S; Ivanchenko, V N; Karamitros, M; Kyriakou, I; Maigne, L; Meylan, S; Murakami, K; Okada, S; Payno, H; Perrot, Y; Petrovic, I; Pham, Q T; Ristic-Fira, A; Sasaki, T; Štěpán, V; Tran, H N; Villagrasa, C; Incerti, S

2015-12-01

Understanding the fundamental mechanisms involved in the induction of biological damage by ionizing radiation remains a major challenge of today's radiobiology research. The Monte Carlo simulation of physical, physicochemical and chemical processes involved may provide a powerful tool for the simulation of early damage induction. The Geant4-DNA extension of the general purpose Monte Carlo Geant4 simulation toolkit aims to provide the scientific community with an open source access platform for the mechanistic simulation of such early damage. This paper presents the most recent review of the Geant4-DNA extension, as available to Geant4 users since June 2015 (release 10.2 Beta). In particular, the review includes the description of new physical models for the description of electron elastic and inelastic interactions in liquid water, as well as new examples dedicated to the simulation of physicochemical and chemical stages of water radiolysis. Several implementations of geometrical models of biological targets are presented as well, and the list of Geant4-DNA examples is described. Copyright © 2015 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computational Modeling of 3D Tumor Growth and Angiogenesis for Chemotherapy Evaluation

PubMed Central

Tang, Lei; van de Ven, Anne L.; Guo, Dongmin; Andasari, Vivi; Cristini, Vittorio; Li, King C.; Zhou, Xiaobo

2014-01-01

Solid tumors develop abnormally at spatial and temporal scales, giving rise to biophysical barriers that impact anti-tumor chemotherapy. This may increase the expenditure and time for conventional drug pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic studies. In order to facilitate drug discovery, we propose a mathematical model that couples three-dimensional tumor growth and angiogenesis to simulate tumor progression for chemotherapy evaluation. This application-oriented model incorporates complex dynamical processes including cell- and vascular-mediated interstitial pressure, mass transport, angiogenesis, cell proliferation, and vessel maturation to model tumor progression through multiple stages including tumor initiation, avascular growth, and transition from avascular to vascular growth. Compared to pure mechanistic models, the proposed empirical methods are not only easy to conduct but can provide realistic predictions and calculations. A series of computational simulations were conducted to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed comprehensive model. The computational simulation results suggest that solid tumor geometry is related to the interstitial pressure, such that tumors with high interstitial pressure are more likely to develop dendritic structures than those with low interstitial pressure. PMID:24404145

Four decades of modeling methane cycling in terrestrial ecosystems: Where we are heading?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X.; Yuan, F.; Hanson, P. J.; Wullschleger, S. D.; Thornton, P. E.; Tian, H.; Riley, W. J.; Song, X.; Graham, D. E.; Song, C.

2015-12-01

A modeling approach to methane (CH4) is widely used to quantify the budget, investigate spatial and temporal variabilities, and understand the mechanistic processes and environmental controls on CH4 fluxes across spatial and temporal scales. Moreover, CH4 models are an important tool for integrating CH4 data from multiple sources, such as laboratory-based incubation and molecular analysis, field observational experiments, remote sensing, and aircraft-based measurements across a variety of terrestrial ecosystems. We reviewed 39 terrestrial CH4 models to characterize their strengths and weaknesses and to design a roadmap for future model improvement and application. We found that: (1) the focus of CH4 models have been shifted from theoretical to site- to regional-level application over the past four decades, expressed as dramatic increases in CH4 model development on regional budget quantification; (2) large discrepancies exist among models in terms of representing CH4 processes and their environmental controls; (3) significant data-model and model-model mismatches are partially attributed to different representations of wetland characterization and inundation dynamics. Three efforts should be paid special attention for future improvements and applications of fully mechanistic CH4 models: (1) CH4 models should be improved to represent the mechanisms underlying land-atmosphere CH4 exchange, with emphasis on improving and validating individual CH4 processes over depth and horizontal space; (2) models should be developed that are capable of simulating CH4 fluxes across space and time (particularly hot moments and hot spots); (3) efforts should be invested to develop model benchmarking frameworks that can easily be used for model improvement, evaluation, and integration with data from molecular to global scales. A newly developed microbial functional group-based CH4 model (CLM-Microbe) was further used to demonstrate the features of mechanistic representation and integration with multiple source of observational datasets.

Drug-physiology interaction and its influence on the QT prolongation-mechanistic modeling study.

PubMed

Wiśniowska, Barbara; Polak, Sebastian

2018-06-01

The current study is an example of drug-disease interaction modeling where a drug induces a condition which can affect the pharmacodynamics of other concomitantly taken drugs. The electrophysiological effects of hypokaliemia and heart rate changes induced by the antiasthmatic drugs were simulated with the use of the cardiac safety simulator. Biophysically detailed model of the human cardiac physiology-ten Tusscher ventricular cardiomyocyte cell model-was employed to generate pseudo-ECG signals and QTc intervals for 44 patients from four clinical studies. Simulated and observed mean QTc values with standard deviation (SD) for each reported study point were compared and differences were analyzed with Student's t test (α = 0.05). The simulated results reflected the QTc interval changes measured in patients, as well as their clinically observed interindividual variability. The QTc interval changes were highly correlated with the change in plasma potassium both in clinical studies and in the simulations (Pearson's correlation coefficient > 0.55). The results suggest that the modeling and simulation approach could provide valuable quantitative insight into the cardiological effect of the potassium and heart rate changes caused by electrophysiologically inactive, non-cardiological drugs. This allows to simulate and predict the joint effect of several risk factors for QT prolongation, e.g., drug-dependent QT prolongation due to the ion channels inhibition and the current patient physiological conditions.

Mechanistic Drifting Forecast Model for A Small Semi-Submersible Drifter Under Tide-Wind-Wave Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei-Na; Huang, Hui-ming; Wang, Yi-gang; Chen, Da-ke; Zhang, lin

2018-03-01

Understanding the drifting motion of a small semi-submersible drifter is of vital importance regarding monitoring surface currents and the floating pollutants in coastal regions. This work addresses this issue by establishing a mechanistic drifting forecast model based on kinetic analysis. Taking tide-wind-wave into consideration, the forecast model is validated against in situ drifting experiment in the Radial Sand Ridges. Model results show good performance with respect to the measured drifting features, characterized by migrating back and forth twice a day with daily downwind displacements. Trajectory models are used to evaluate the influence of the individual hydrodynamic forcing. The tidal current is the fundamental dynamic condition in the Radial Sand Ridges and has the greatest impact on the drifting distance. However, it loses its leading position in the field of the daily displacement of the used drifter. The simulations reveal that different hydrodynamic forces dominate the daily displacement of the used drifter at different wind scales. The wave-induced mass transport has the greatest influence on the daily displacement at Beaufort wind scale 5-6; while wind drag contributes mostly at wind scale 2-4.

A stochastic automata network for earthquake simulation and hazard estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belubekian, Maya Ernest

1998-11-01

This research develops a model for simulation of earthquakes on seismic faults with available earthquake catalog data. The model allows estimation of the seismic hazard at a site of interest and assessment of the potential damage and loss in a region. There are two approaches for studying the earthquakes: mechanistic and stochastic. In the mechanistic approach, seismic processes, such as changes in stress or slip on faults, are studied in detail. In the stochastic approach, earthquake occurrences are simulated as realizations of a certain stochastic process. In this dissertation, a stochastic earthquake occurrence model is developed that uses the results from dislocation theory for the estimation of slip released in earthquakes. The slip accumulation and release laws and the event scheduling mechanism adopted in the model result in a memoryless Poisson process for the small and moderate events and in a time- and space-dependent process for large events. The minimum and maximum of the hazard are estimated by the model when the initial conditions along the faults correspond to a situation right after a largest event and after a long seismic gap, respectively. These estimates are compared with the ones obtained from a Poisson model. The Poisson model overestimates the hazard after the maximum event and underestimates it in the period of a long seismic quiescence. The earthquake occurrence model is formulated as a stochastic automata network. Each fault is divided into cells, or automata, that interact by means of information exchange. The model uses a statistical method called bootstrap for the evaluation of the confidence bounds on its results. The parameters of the model are adjusted to the target magnitude patterns obtained from the catalog. A case study is presented for the city of Palo Alto, where the hazard is controlled by the San Andreas, Hayward and Calaveras faults. The results of the model are used to evaluate the damage and loss distribution in Palo Alto. The sensitivity analysis of the model results to the variation in basic parameters shows that the maximum magnitude has the most significant impact on the hazard, especially for long forecast periods.

Parameter estimation of a pulp digester model with derivative-free optimization strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seiça, João C.; Romanenko, Andrey; Fernandes, Florbela P.; Santos, Lino O.; Fernandes, Natércia C. P.

2017-07-01

The work concerns the parameter estimation in the context of the mechanistic modelling of a pulp digester. The problem is cast as a box bounded nonlinear global optimization problem in order to minimize the mismatch between the model outputs with the experimental data observed at a real pulp and paper plant. MCSFilter and Simulated Annealing global optimization methods were used to solve the optimization problem. While the former took longer to converge to the global minimum, the latter terminated faster at a significantly higher value of the objective function and, thus, failed to find the global solution.

Oxygen Reduction Reaction on Ag(111) in Alkaline Solution: A Combined Density Functional Theory and Kinetic Monte Carlo Study

DOE PAGES

Liu, Shizhong; White, Michael G.; Liu, Ping

2018-01-25

We reported a detailed mechanistic study of the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) on the model Ag(111) surface in alkaline solution by using density functional theory (DFT) and Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations, in which multiple pathways involving either 2 e - or 4 e - mechanisms were included. The theoretical modelling presented here is able to reproduce the experimentally measured polarization curves in both low and high potential regions. An electrochemical 4 e - network including both a chemisorbed water (*H 2O)-mediated 4 e - associative pathway and the conventional associative pathway was identified to dominate the ORR mechanism. Onmore » the basis of the mechanistic understanding derived from these calculations, the ways to promote the ORR on Ag(111) were provided, including facilitating *OH removal, **O 2 reduction by *H 2O, and suppressing **O 2 desorption. Finally, the origin of the different ORR behaviors of Ag(111) and Pt(111) was also discussed in detail.« less

Oxygen Reduction Reaction on Ag(111) in Alkaline Solution: A Combined Density Functional Theory and Kinetic Monte Carlo Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Shizhong; White, Michael G.; Liu, Ping

We reported a detailed mechanistic study of the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) on the model Ag(111) surface in alkaline solution by using density functional theory (DFT) and Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations, in which multiple pathways involving either 2 e - or 4 e - mechanisms were included. The theoretical modelling presented here is able to reproduce the experimentally measured polarization curves in both low and high potential regions. An electrochemical 4 e - network including both a chemisorbed water (*H 2O)-mediated 4 e - associative pathway and the conventional associative pathway was identified to dominate the ORR mechanism. Onmore » the basis of the mechanistic understanding derived from these calculations, the ways to promote the ORR on Ag(111) were provided, including facilitating *OH removal, **O 2 reduction by *H 2O, and suppressing **O 2 desorption. Finally, the origin of the different ORR behaviors of Ag(111) and Pt(111) was also discussed in detail.« less

Emergence of tissue polarization from synergy of intracellular and extracellular auxin signaling

PubMed Central

Wabnik, Krzysztof; Kleine-Vehn, Jürgen; Balla, Jozef; Sauer, Michael; Naramoto, Satoshi; Reinöhl, Vilém; Merks, Roeland M H; Govaerts, Willy; Friml, Jiří

2010-01-01

Plant development is exceptionally flexible as manifested by its potential for organogenesis and regeneration, which are processes involving rearrangements of tissue polarities. Fundamental questions concern how individual cells can polarize in a coordinated manner to integrate into the multicellular context. In canalization models, the signaling molecule auxin acts as a polarizing cue, and feedback on the intercellular auxin flow is key for synchronized polarity rearrangements. We provide a novel mechanistic framework for canalization, based on up-to-date experimental data and minimal, biologically plausible assumptions. Our model combines the intracellular auxin signaling for expression of PINFORMED (PIN) auxin transporters and the theoretical postulation of extracellular auxin signaling for modulation of PIN subcellular dynamics. Computer simulations faithfully and robustly recapitulated the experimentally observed patterns of tissue polarity and asymmetric auxin distribution during formation and regeneration of vascular systems and during the competitive regulation of shoot branching by apical dominance. Additionally, our model generated new predictions that could be experimentally validated, highlighting a mechanistically conceivable explanation for the PIN polarization and canalization of the auxin flow in plants. PMID:21179019

Household water use and conservation models using Monte Carlo techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, R.; Lund, J. R.; DeOreo, B.; Medellín-Azuara, J.

2013-10-01

The increased availability of end use measurement studies allows for mechanistic and detailed approaches to estimating household water demand and conservation potential. This study simulates water use in a single-family residential neighborhood using end-water-use parameter probability distributions generated from Monte Carlo sampling. This model represents existing water use conditions in 2010 and is calibrated to 2006-2011 metered data. A two-stage mixed integer optimization model is then developed to estimate the least-cost combination of long- and short-term conservation actions for each household. This least-cost conservation model provides an estimate of the upper bound of reasonable conservation potential for varying pricing and rebate conditions. The models were adapted from previous work in Jordan and are applied to a neighborhood in San Ramon, California in the eastern San Francisco Bay Area. The existing conditions model produces seasonal use results very close to the metered data. The least-cost conservation model suggests clothes washer rebates are among most cost-effective rebate programs for indoor uses. Retrofit of faucets and toilets is also cost-effective and holds the highest potential for water savings from indoor uses. This mechanistic modeling approach can improve understanding of water demand and estimate cost-effectiveness of water conservation programs.

Household water use and conservation models using Monte Carlo techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, R.; Lund, J. R.; DeOreo, B.; Medellín-Azuara, J.

2013-04-01

The increased availability of water end use measurement studies allows for more mechanistic and detailed approaches to estimating household water demand and conservation potential. This study uses, probability distributions for parameters affecting water use estimated from end use studies and randomly sampled in Monte Carlo iterations to simulate water use in a single-family residential neighborhood. This model represents existing conditions and is calibrated to metered data. A two-stage mixed integer optimization model is then developed to estimate the least-cost combination of long- and short-term conservation actions for each household. This least-cost conservation model provides an estimate of the upper bound of reasonable conservation potential for varying pricing and rebate conditions. The models were adapted from previous work in Jordan and are applied to a neighborhood in San Ramon, California in eastern San Francisco Bay Area. The existing conditions model produces seasonal use results very close to the metered data. The least-cost conservation model suggests clothes washer rebates are among most cost-effective rebate programs for indoor uses. Retrofit of faucets and toilets is also cost effective and holds the highest potential for water savings from indoor uses. This mechanistic modeling approach can improve understanding of water demand and estimate cost-effectiveness of water conservation programs.

Long ligands reinforce biological adhesion under shear flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belyaev, Aleksey V.

2018-04-01

In this work, computer modeling has been used to show that longer ligands allow biological cells (e.g., blood platelets) to withstand stronger flows after their adhesion to solid walls. A mechanistic model of polymer-mediated ligand-receptor adhesion between a microparticle (cell) and a flat wall has been developed. The theoretical threshold between adherent and non-adherent regimes has been derived analytically and confirmed by simulations. These results lead to a deeper understanding of numerous biophysical processes, e.g., arterial thrombosis, and to the design of new biomimetic colloid-polymer systems.

Properties and ionic mechanisms of action potential adaptation, restitution, and accommodation in canine epicardium.

PubMed

Decker, Keith F; Heijman, Jordi; Silva, Jonathan R; Hund, Thomas J; Rudy, Yoram

2009-04-01

Computational models of cardiac myocytes are important tools for understanding ionic mechanisms of arrhythmia. This work presents a new model of the canine epicardial myocyte that reproduces a wide range of experimentally observed rate-dependent behaviors in cardiac cell and tissue, including action potential (AP) duration (APD) adaptation, restitution, and accommodation. Model behavior depends on updated formulations for the 4-aminopyridine-sensitive transient outward current (I(to1)), the slow component of the delayed rectifier K(+) current (I(Ks)), the L-type Ca(2+) channel current (I(Ca,L)), and the Na(+)-K(+) pump current (I(NaK)) fit to data from canine ventricular myocytes. We found that I(to1) plays a limited role in potentiating peak I(Ca,L) and sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca(2+) release for propagated APs but modulates the time course of APD restitution. I(Ks) plays an important role in APD shortening at short diastolic intervals, despite a limited role in AP repolarization at longer cycle lengths. In addition, we found that I(Ca,L) plays a critical role in APD accommodation and rate dependence of APD restitution. Ca(2+) entry via I(Ca,L) at fast rate drives increased Na(+)-Ca(2+) exchanger Ca(2+) extrusion and Na(+) entry, which in turn increases Na(+) extrusion via outward I(NaK). APD accommodation results from this increased outward I(NaK). Our simulation results provide valuable insight into the mechanistic basis of rate-dependent phenomena important for determining the heart's response to rapid and irregular pacing rates (e.g., arrhythmia). Accurate simulation of rate-dependent phenomena and increased understanding of their mechanistic basis will lead to more realistic multicellular simulations of arrhythmia and identification of molecular therapeutic targets.

Kinetics from Replica Exchange Molecular Dynamics Simulations.

PubMed

Stelzl, Lukas S; Hummer, Gerhard

2017-08-08

Transitions between metastable states govern many fundamental processes in physics, chemistry and biology, from nucleation events in phase transitions to the folding of proteins. The free energy surfaces underlying these processes can be obtained from simulations using enhanced sampling methods. However, their altered dynamics makes kinetic and mechanistic information difficult or impossible to extract. Here, we show that, with replica exchange molecular dynamics (REMD), one can not only sample equilibrium properties but also extract kinetic information. For systems that strictly obey first-order kinetics, the procedure to extract rates is rigorous. For actual molecular systems whose long-time dynamics are captured by kinetic rate models, accurate rate coefficients can be determined from the statistics of the transitions between the metastable states at each replica temperature. We demonstrate the practical applicability of the procedure by constructing master equation (Markov state) models of peptide and RNA folding from REMD simulations.

Interaction Between Domperidone and Ketoconazole: Toward Prediction of Consequent QTc Prolongation Using Purely In Vitro Information

PubMed Central

Mishra, H; Polak, S; Jamei, M; Rostami-Hodjegan, A

2014-01-01

We aimed to investigate the application of combined mechanistic pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) modeling and simulation in predicting the domperidone (DOM) triggered pseudo-electrocardiogram modification in the presence of a CYP3A inhibitor, ketoconazole (KETO), using in vitro–in vivo extrapolation. In vitro metabolic and inhibitory data were incorporated into physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models within Simcyp to simulate time course of plasma DOM and KETO concentrations when administered alone or in combination with KETO (DOM+KETO). Simulated DOM concentrations in plasma were used to predict changes in gender-specific QTcF (Fridericia correction) intervals within the Cardiac Safety Simulator platform taking into consideration DOM, KETO, and DOM+KETO triggered inhibition of multiple ionic currents in population. Combination of in vitro–in vivo extrapolation, PBPK, and systems pharmacology of electric currents in the heart was able to predict the direction and magnitude of PK and PD changes under coadministration of the two drugs although some disparities were detected. PMID:25116274

Mathematical modeling of drug release from lipid dosage forms.

PubMed

Siepmann, J; Siepmann, F

2011-10-10

Lipid dosage forms provide an interesting potential for controlled drug delivery. In contrast to frequently used poly(ester) based devices for parenteral administration, they do not lead to acidification upon degradation and potential drug inactivation, especially in the case of protein drugs and other acid-labile active agents. The aim of this article is to give an overview on the current state of the art of mathematical modeling of drug release from this type of advanced drug delivery systems. Empirical and semi-empirical models are described as well as mechanistic theories, considering diffusional mass transport, potentially limited drug solubility and the leaching of other, water-soluble excipients into the surrounding bulk fluid. Various practical examples are given, including lipid microparticles, beads and implants, which can successfully be used to control the release of an incorporated drug during periods ranging from a few hours up to several years. The great benefit of mechanistic mathematical theories is the possibility to quantitatively predict the effects of different formulation parameters and device dimensions on the resulting drug release kinetics. Thus, in silico simulations can significantly speed up product optimization. This is particularly useful if long release periods (e.g., several months) are targeted, since experimental trial-and-error studies are highly time-consuming in these cases. In the future it would be highly desirable to combine mechanistic theories with the quantitative description of the drug fate in vivo, ideally including the pharmacodynamic efficacy of the treatments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maximizing neotissue growth kinetics in a perfusion bioreactor: An in silico strategy using model reduction and Bayesian optimization.

PubMed

Mehrian, Mohammad; Guyot, Yann; Papantoniou, Ioannis; Olofsson, Simon; Sonnaert, Maarten; Misener, Ruth; Geris, Liesbet

2018-03-01

In regenerative medicine, computer models describing bioreactor processes can assist in designing optimal process conditions leading to robust and economically viable products. In this study, we started from a (3D) mechanistic model describing the growth of neotissue, comprised of cells, and extracellular matrix, in a perfusion bioreactor set-up influenced by the scaffold geometry, flow-induced shear stress, and a number of metabolic factors. Subsequently, we applied model reduction by reformulating the problem from a set of partial differential equations into a set of ordinary differential equations. Comparing the reduced model results to the mechanistic model results and to dedicated experimental results assesses the reduction step quality. The obtained homogenized model is 10 5 fold faster than the 3D version, allowing the application of rigorous optimization techniques. Bayesian optimization was applied to find the medium refreshment regime in terms of frequency and percentage of medium replaced that would maximize neotissue growth kinetics during 21 days of culture. The simulation results indicated that maximum neotissue growth will occur for a high frequency and medium replacement percentage, a finding that is corroborated by reports in the literature. This study demonstrates an in silico strategy for bioprocess optimization paying particular attention to the reduction of the associated computational cost. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

How Do Various Maize Crop Models Vary in Their Responses to Climate Change Factors?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Grassini, Patricio; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Adam, Myriam;

How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

PubMed

Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C; Adam, Myriam; Baron, Christian; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Boogaard, Hendrik; Conijn, Sjaak; Corbeels, Marc; Deryng, Delphine; De Sanctis, Giacomo; Gayler, Sebastian; Grassini, Patricio; Hatfield, Jerry; Hoek, Steven; Izaurralde, Cesar; Jongschaap, Raymond; Kemanian, Armen R; Kersebaum, K Christian; Kim, Soo-Hyung; Kumar, Naresh S; Makowski, David; Müller, Christoph; Nendel, Claas; Priesack, Eckart; Pravia, Maria Virginia; Sau, Federico; Shcherbak, Iurii; Tao, Fulu; Teixeira, Edmar; Timlin, Dennis; Waha, Katharina

2014-07-01

Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2 ], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per °C. Doubling [CO2 ] from 360 to 720 μmol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2 ] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2 ] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation and verification of two systems for mechanistic structural design of asphalt concrete pavements in Nebraska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sneddon, R. V.

1982-07-01

The VESY-3-A mechanistic design system for asphalt pavements was field verified for three pavement sections at two test sites in Nebraska. PSI predictions from VESYS were in good agreement with field measurements for a 20 year old 3 layer pavement located near Elmwood, Nebraska. Field measured PSI values for an 8 in. full depth pavement also agreed with VESYS predictions for the study period. Rut depth estimates from the model were small and were in general agreement with field measurements. Cracking estimates were poor and tended to underestimate the time required to develop observable fatigue cracking in the field. Asphalt, base course and subgrade materials were tested in a 4.0 in. diameter modified triaxial cell. Test procedures used dynamic conditioning and rest periods to simulate service conditions.

Parallel particle filters for online identification of mechanistic mathematical models of physiology from monitoring data: performance and real-time scalability in simulation scenarios.

PubMed

Zenker, Sven

2010-08-01

Combining mechanistic mathematical models of physiology with quantitative observations using probabilistic inference may offer advantages over established approaches to computerized decision support in acute care medicine. Particle filters (PF) can perform such inference successively as data becomes available. The potential of PF for real-time state estimation (SE) for a model of cardiovascular physiology is explored using parallel computers and the ability to achieve joint state and parameter estimation (JSPE) given minimal prior knowledge tested. A parallelized sequential importance sampling/resampling algorithm was implemented and its scalability for the pure SE problem for a non-linear five-dimensional ODE model of the cardiovascular system evaluated on a Cray XT3 using up to 1,024 cores. JSPE was implemented using a state augmentation approach with artificial stochastic evolution of the parameters. Its performance when simultaneously estimating the 5 states and 18 unknown parameters when given observations only of arterial pressure, central venous pressure, heart rate, and, optionally, cardiac output, was evaluated in a simulated bleeding/resuscitation scenario. SE was successful and scaled up to 1,024 cores with appropriate algorithm parametrization, with real-time equivalent performance for up to 10 million particles. JSPE in the described underdetermined scenario achieved excellent reproduction of observables and qualitative tracking of enddiastolic ventricular volumes and sympathetic nervous activity. However, only a subset of the posterior distributions of parameters concentrated around the true values for parts of the estimated trajectories. Parallelized PF's performance makes their application to complex mathematical models of physiology for the purpose of clinical data interpretation, prediction, and therapy optimization appear promising. JSPE in the described extremely underdetermined scenario nevertheless extracted information of potential clinical relevance from the data in this simulation setting. However, fully satisfactory resolution of this problem when minimal prior knowledge about parameter values is available will require further methodological improvements, which are discussed.

Estimating Time-Varying PCB Exposures Using Person-Specific Predictions to Supplement Measured Values: A Comparison of Observed and Predicted Values in Two Cohorts of Norwegian Women

PubMed Central

Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Breivik, Knut; Wania, Frank; Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

2015-01-01

Background Studies on the health effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) call for an understanding of past and present human exposure. Time-resolved mechanistic models may supplement information on concentrations in individuals obtained from measurements and/or statistical approaches if they can be shown to reproduce empirical data. Objectives Here, we evaluated the capability of one such mechanistic model to reproduce measured PCB concentrations in individual Norwegian women. We also assessed individual life-course concentrations. Methods Concentrations of four PCB congeners in pregnant (n = 310, sampled in 2007–2009) and postmenopausal (n = 244, 2005) women were compared with person-specific predictions obtained using CoZMoMAN, an emission-based environmental fate and human food-chain bioaccumulation model. Person-specific predictions were also made using statistical regression models including dietary and lifestyle variables and concentrations. Results CoZMoMAN accurately reproduced medians and ranges of measured concentrations in the two study groups. Furthermore, rank correlations between measurements and predictions from both CoZMoMAN and regression analyses were strong (Spearman’s r > 0.67). Precision in quartile assignments from predictions was strong overall as evaluated by weighted Cohen’s kappa (> 0.6). Simulations indicated large inter-individual differences in concentrations experienced in the past. Conclusions The mechanistic model reproduced all measurements of PCB concentrations within a factor of 10, and subject ranking and quartile assignments were overall largely consistent, although they were weak within each study group. Contamination histories for individuals predicted by CoZMoMAN revealed variation between study subjects, particularly in the timing of peak concentrations. Mechanistic models can provide individual PCB exposure metrics that could serve as valuable supplements to measurements. Citation Nøst TH, Breivik K, Wania F, Rylander C, Odland JØ, Sandanger TM. 2016. Estimating time-varying PCB exposures using person-specific predictions to supplement measured values: a comparison of observed and predicted values in two cohorts of Norwegian women. Environ Health Perspect 124:299–305; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409191 PMID:26186800

Functional resilience of microbial ecosystems in soil: How important is a spatial analysis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

König, Sara; Banitz, Thomas; Centler, Florian; Frank, Karin; Thullner, Martin

2015-04-01

Microbial life in soil is exposed to fluctuating environmental conditions influencing the performance of microbially mediated ecosystem services such as biodegradation of contaminants. However, as this environment is typically very heterogeneous, spatial aspects can be expected to play a major role for the ability to recover from a stress event. To determine key processes for functional resilience, simple scenarios with varying stress intensities were simulated within a microbial simulation model and the biodegradation rate in the recovery phase monitored. Parameters including microbial growth and dispersal rates were varied over a typical range to consider microorganisms with varying properties. Besides an aggregated temporal monitoring, the explicit observation of the spatio-temporal dynamics proved essential to understand the recovery process. For a mechanistic understanding of the model system, scenarios were also simulated with selected processes being switched-off. Results of the mechanistic and the spatial view show that the key factors for functional recovery with respect to biodegradation after a simple stress event depend on the location of the observed habitats. The limiting factors near unstressed areas are spatial processes - the mobility of the bacteria as well as substrate diffusion - the longer the distance to the unstressed region the more important becomes the process growth. Furthermore, recovery depends on the stress intensity - after a low stress event the spatial configuration has no influence on the key factors for functional resilience. To confirm these results, we repeated the stress scenarios but this time including an additional dispersal network representing a fungal network in soil. The system benefits from an increased spatial performance due to the higher mobility of the degrading microorganisms. However, this effect appears only in scenarios where the spatial distribution of the stressed area plays a role. With these simulations we show that spatial aspects play a main role for recovering after a severe stress event in a highly heterogeneous environment such as soil, and thus the relevance of the exact distribution of the stressed area. In consequence a spatial-mechanistic view is necessary for examining the functional resilience as the aggregated temporal view alone could not have led to these conclusions. Further research should explore the importance of a spatial view for quantifying the recovery of the ecosystem service also after more complex stress regimes.

Fluid mechanics in dentinal microtubules provides mechanistic insights into the difference between hot and cold dental pain.

PubMed

Lin, Min; Luo, Zheng Yuan; Bai, Bo Feng; Xu, Feng; Lu, Tian Jian

2011-03-23

Dental thermal pain is a significant health problem in daily life and dentistry. There is a long-standing question regarding the phenomenon that cold stimulation evokes sharper and more shooting pain sensations than hot stimulation. This phenomenon, however, outlives the well-known hydrodynamic theory used to explain dental thermal pain mechanism. Here, we present a mathematical model based on the hypothesis that hot or cold stimulation-induced different directions of dentinal fluid flow and the corresponding odontoblast movements in dentinal microtubules contribute to different dental pain responses. We coupled a computational fluid dynamics model, describing the fluid mechanics in dentinal microtubules, with a modified Hodgkin-Huxley model, describing the discharge behavior of intradental neuron. The simulated results agreed well with existing experimental measurements. We thence demonstrated theoretically that intradental mechano-sensitive nociceptors are not "equally sensitive" to inward (into the pulp) and outward (away from the pulp) fluid flows, providing mechanistic insights into the difference between hot and cold dental pain. The model developed here could enable better diagnosis in endodontics which requires an understanding of pulpal histology, neurology and physiology, as well as their dynamic response to the thermal stimulation used in dental practices.

Fluid Mechanics in Dentinal Microtubules Provides Mechanistic Insights into the Difference between Hot and Cold Dental Pain

PubMed Central

Lin, Min; Luo, Zheng Yuan; Bai, Bo Feng; Xu, Feng; Lu, Tian Jian

2011-01-01

Dental thermal pain is a significant health problem in daily life and dentistry. There is a long-standing question regarding the phenomenon that cold stimulation evokes sharper and more shooting pain sensations than hot stimulation. This phenomenon, however, outlives the well-known hydrodynamic theory used to explain dental thermal pain mechanism. Here, we present a mathematical model based on the hypothesis that hot or cold stimulation-induced different directions of dentinal fluid flow and the corresponding odontoblast movements in dentinal microtubules contribute to different dental pain responses. We coupled a computational fluid dynamics model, describing the fluid mechanics in dentinal microtubules, with a modified Hodgkin-Huxley model, describing the discharge behavior of intradental neuron. The simulated results agreed well with existing experimental measurements. We thence demonstrated theoretically that intradental mechano-sensitive nociceptors are not “equally sensitive” to inward (into the pulp) and outward (away from the pulp) fluid flows, providing mechanistic insights into the difference between hot and cold dental pain. The model developed here could enable better diagnosis in endodontics which requires an understanding of pulpal histology, neurology and physiology, as well as their dynamic response to the thermal stimulation used in dental practices. PMID:21448459

From documentation to prediction: Raising the bar for thermokarst research

DOE PAGES

Rowland, Joel C.; Coon, Ethan T.

2015-11-12

Here we report that to date the majority of published research on thermokarst has been directed at documenting its form, occurrence, and rates of occurrence. The fundamental processes driving thermokarst have long been largely understood. However, the detailed physical couplings between, water, air, soil, and the thermal dynamics governing freeze-thaw and soil mechanics is less understood and not captured in models aimed at predicting the response of frozen soils to warming and thaw. As computational resources increase more sophisticated mechanistic models can be applied; these show great promise as predictive tools. These models will be capable of simulating the responsemore » of soil deformation to thawing/freezing cycles and the long-term, non-recoverable response of the land surface to the loss of ice. At the same time, advances in remote sensing of permafrost environments also show promise in providing detailed and spatially extensive estimates in the rates and patterns of subsidence. These datasets provide key constraints to calibrate and evaluate the predictive power of mechanistic models. In conclusion, in the coming decade, these emerging technologies will greatly increase our ability to predict when, where, and how thermokarst will occur in a changing climate.« less

Mechanistic insight into prolonged electromechanical delay in dyssynchronous heart failure: a computational study

PubMed Central

Constantino, Jason; Hu, Yuxuan; Lardo, Albert C.

2013-01-01

In addition to the left bundle branch block type of electrical activation, there are further remodeling aspects associated with dyssynchronous heart failure (HF) that affect the electromechanical behavior of the heart. Among the most important are altered ventricular structure (both geometry and fiber/sheet orientation), abnormal Ca2+ handling, slowed conduction, and reduced wall stiffness. In dyssynchronous HF, the electromechanical delay (EMD), the time interval between local myocyte depolarization and myofiber shortening onset, is prolonged. However, the contributions of the four major HF remodeling aspects in extending EMD in the dyssynchronous failing heart remain unknown. The goal of this study was to determine the individual and combined contributions of HF-induced remodeling aspects to EMD prolongation. We used MRI-based models of dyssynchronous nonfailing and HF canine electromechanics and constructed additional models in which varying combinations of the four remodeling aspects were represented. A left bundle branch block electrical activation sequence was simulated in all models. The simulation results revealed that deranged Ca2+ handling is the primary culprit in extending EMD in dyssynchronous HF, with the other aspects of remodeling contributing insignificantly. Mechanistically, we found that abnormal Ca2+ handling in dyssynchronous HF slows myofiber shortening velocity at the early-activated septum and depresses both myofiber shortening and stretch rate at the late-activated lateral wall. These changes in myofiber dynamics delay the onset of myofiber shortening, thus giving rise to prolonged EMD in dyssynchronous HF. PMID:23934857

The Structural Basis of IKs Ion-Channel Activation: Mechanistic Insights from Molecular Simulations.

PubMed

Ramasubramanian, Smiruthi; Rudy, Yoram

2018-06-05

Relating ion channel (iCh) structural dynamics to physiological function remains a challenge. Current experimental and computational techniques have limited ability to explore this relationship in atomistic detail over physiological timescales. A framework associating iCh structure to function is necessary for elucidating normal and disease mechanisms. We formulated a modeling schema that overcomes the limitations of current methods through applications of artificial intelligence machine learning. Using this approach, we studied molecular processes that underlie human IKs voltage-mediated gating. IKs malfunction underlies many debilitating and life-threatening diseases. Molecular components of IKs that underlie its electrophysiological function include KCNQ1 (a pore-forming tetramer) and KCNE1 (an auxiliary subunit). Simulations, using the IKs structure-function model, reproduced experimentally recorded saturation of gating-charge displacement at positive membrane voltages, two-step voltage sensor (VS) movement shown by fluorescence, iCh gating statistics, and current-voltage relationship. Mechanistic insights include the following: 1) pore energy profile determines iCh subconductance; 2) the entire protein structure, not limited to the pore, contributes to pore energy and channel subconductance; 3) interactions with KCNE1 result in two distinct VS movements, causing gating-charge saturation at positive membrane voltages and current activation delay; and 4) flexible coupling between VS and pore permits pore opening at lower VS positions, resulting in sequential gating. The new modeling approach is applicable to atomistic scale studies of other proteins on timescales of physiological function. Copyright © 2018 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relationship of stream ecological conditions to simulated hydraulic metrics across a gradient of basin urbanization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steuer, J.J.; Bales, J.D.; Giddings, E.M.P.

2009-01-01

The relationships among urbanization, stream hydraulics, and aquatic biology were investigated across a gradient of urbanization in 30 small basins in eastern Wisconsin, USA. Simulation of hydraulic metrics with 1-dimensional unsteady flow models was an effective means for mechanistically coupling the effects of urbanization with stream ecological conditions (i.e., algae, invertebrates, and fish). Urbanization, characterized by household, road, and urban land density, was positively correlated with the lowest shear stress for 2 adjacent transects in a reach for the low-flow summer (p < 0.001) and autumn (p < 0.01) periods. Urbanization also was positively correlated with Reynolds number and % exposed stream bed during months with moderate to low flows. Our study demonstrated the value of temporally and spatially explicit hydraulic models for providing mechanistic insight into the relationships between hydraulic variables and biological responses. For example, the positive correlation between filter-feeding invertebrate richness and minimum 2-transect shear stress observed in our study is consistent with a higher concentration of water-column particulates available for filtration. The strength of correlations between hydraulic and biological metrics is related to the time period (annual, seasonal, or monthly) considered. The hydraulic modeling approach, whether based on hourly or daily flow data, allowed documentation of the effects of a spatially variable response within a reach, and the results suggest that stream response to urbanization varies with hydraulic habitat type. ?? North American Benthological Society.

Molecular determinants for the thermodynamic and functional divergence of uniporter GLUT1 and proton symporter XylE

PubMed Central

Ke, Meng; Jiang, Xin; Yan, Nieng

2017-01-01

GLUT1 facilitates the down-gradient translocation of D-glucose across cell membrane in mammals. XylE, an Escherichia coli homolog of GLUT1, utilizes proton gradient as an energy source to drive uphill D-xylose transport. Previous studies of XylE and GLUT1 suggest that the variation between an acidic residue (Asp27 in XylE) and a neutral one (Asn29 in GLUT1) is a key element for their mechanistic divergence. In this work, we combined computational and biochemical approaches to investigate the mechanism of proton coupling by XylE and the functional divergence between GLUT1 and XylE. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we evaluated the free energy profiles of the transition between inward- and outward-facing conformations for the apo proteins. Our results revealed the correlation between the protonation state and conformational preference in XylE, which is supported by the crystal structures. In addition, our simulations suggested a thermodynamic difference between XylE and GLUT1 that cannot be explained by the single residue variation at the protonation site. To understand the molecular basis, we applied Bayesian network models to analyze the alteration in the architecture of the hydrogen bond networks during conformational transition. The models and subsequent experimental validation suggest that multiple residue substitutions are required to produce the thermodynamic and functional distinction between XylE and GLUT1. Despite the lack of simulation studies with substrates, these computational and biochemical characterizations provide unprecedented insight into the mechanistic difference between proton symporters and uniporters. PMID:28617850

Integrating 'omic' data and biogeochemical modeling: the key to understanding the microbial regulation of matter cycling in soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagel, Holger; Kandeler, Ellen; Seifert, Jana; Camarinha-Silva, Amélia; Kügler, Philipp; Rennert, Thilo; Poll, Christian; Streck, Thilo

2016-04-01

Matter cycling in soils and associated soil functions are intrinsically controlled by microbial dynamics. It is therefore crucial to consider functional traits of microorganisms in biogeochemical models. Tremendous advances in 'omic' methods provide a plethora of data on physiology, metabolic capabilities and ecological life strategies of microorganisms in soil. Combined with isotopic techniques, biochemical pathways and transformations can be identified and quantified. Such data have been, however, rarely used to improve the mechanistic representation of microbial dynamics in soil organic matter models. It is the goal of the Young Investigator Group SoilReg to address this challenge. Our general approach is to tightly integrate experiments and biochemical modeling. NextGen sequencing will be applied to identify key functional groups. Active microbial groups will be quantified by measurements of functional genes and by stable isotope probing methods of DNA and proteins. Based on this information a biogeochemical model that couples a mechanistic representation of microbial dynamics with physicochemical processes will be set up and calibrated. Sensitivity and stability analyses of the model as well as scenario simulations will reveal the importance of intrinsic and extrinsic controls of organic matter turnover. We will demonstrate our concept and present first results of two case studies on pesticide degradation and methane oxidation.

Viscoelastic Emulsion Improved the Bioaccessibility and Oral Bioavailability of Crystalline Compound: A Mechanistic Study Using in Vitro and in Vivo Models.

PubMed

Ting, Yuwen; Jiang, Yike; Lan, Yaqi; Xia, Chunxin; Lin, Zhenyu; Rogers, Michael A; Huang, Qingrong

2015-07-06

The oral bioavailability of hydrophobic compound is usually limited by the poor aqueous solubility in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract. Various oral formulations were developed to enhance the systemic concentration of such molecules. Moreover, compounds with high melting temperature that appear as insoluble crystals imposed a great challenge to the development of oral vehicle. Polymethoxyflavone, an emerging category of bioactive compounds with potent therapeutic efficacies, were characterized as having a hydrophobic and highly crystalline chemical structure. To enhance the oral dosing efficiency of polymethoxyflavone, a viscoelastic emulsion system with a high static viscosity was developed and optimized using tangeretin, one of the most abundant polymethoxyflavones found in natural sources, as a modeling compound. In the present study, different in vitro and in vivo models were used to mechanistically evaluate the effect of emulsification on oral bioavailability of tangeretin. In vitro lipolysis revealed that emulsified tangeretin was digested and became bioaccessible much faster than unprocessed tangeretin oil suspension. By simulating the entire human GI tract, TNO's gastrointestinal model (TIM-1) is a valuable tool to mechanistically study the effect of emulsification on the digestion events that lead to a better oral bioavailability of tangeretin. TIM-1 result indicated that tangeretin was absorbed in the upper GI tract. Thus, a higher oral bioavailability can be expected if the compound becomes bioaccessible in the intestinal lumen soon after dosing. In vivo pharmacokinetics analysis on mice again confirmed that the oral bioavailability of tangeretin increased 2.3 fold when incorporated in the viscoelastic emulsion than unformulated oil suspension. By using the combination of in vitro and in vivo models introduced in this work, the mechanism that underlie the effect of viscoelastic emulsion on the oral bioavailability of tangeretin was well-elucidated.

A mechanistic modeling system for estimating large scale emissions and transport of pollen and co-allergens

PubMed Central

Efstathiou, Christos; Isukapalli, Sastry

2011-01-01

Allergic airway diseases represent a complex health problem which can be exacerbated by the synergistic action of pollen particles and air pollutants such as ozone. Understanding human exposures to aeroallergens requires accurate estimates of the spatial distribution of airborne pollen levels as well as of various air pollutants at different times. However, currently there are no established methods for estimating allergenic pollen emissions and concentrations over large geographic areas such as the United States. A mechanistic modeling system for describing pollen emissions and transport over extensive domains has been developed by adapting components of existing regional scale air quality models and vegetation databases. First, components of the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS) were adapted to predict pollen emission patterns. Subsequently, the transport module of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system was modified to incorporate description of pollen transport. The combined model, CMAQ-pollen, allows for simultaneous prediction of multiple air pollutants and pollen levels in a single model simulation, and uses consistent assumptions related to the transport of multiple chemicals and pollen species. Application case studies for evaluating the combined modeling system included the simulation of birch and ragweed pollen levels for the year 2002, during their corresponding peak pollination periods (April for birch and September for ragweed). The model simulations were driven by previously evaluated meteorological model outputs and emissions inventories for the eastern United States for the simulation period. A semi-quantitative evaluation of CMAQ-pollen was performed using tree and ragweed pollen counts in Newark, NJ for the same time periods. The peak birch pollen concentrations were predicted to occur within two days of the peak measurements, while the temporal patterns closely followed the measured profiles of overall tree pollen. For the case of ragweed pollen, the model was able to capture the patterns observed during September 2002, but did not predict an early peak; this can be associated with a wider species pollination window and inadequate spatial information in current land cover databases. An additional sensitivity simulation was performed to comparatively evaluate the dispersion patterns predicted by CMAQ-pollen with those predicted by the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, which is used extensively in aerobiological studies. The CMAQ estimated concentration plumes matched the equivalent pollen scenario modeled with HYSPLIT. The novel pollen modeling approach presented here allows simultaneous estimation of multiple airborne allergens and other air pollutants, and is being developed as a central component of an integrated population exposure modeling system, the Modeling Environment for Total Risk studies (MENTOR) for multiple, co-occurring contaminants that include aeroallergens and irritants. PMID:21516207

A mechanistic modeling system for estimating large-scale emissions and transport of pollen and co-allergens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efstathiou, Christos; Isukapalli, Sastry; Georgopoulos, Panos

2011-04-01

Allergic airway diseases represent a complex health problem which can be exacerbated by the synergistic action of pollen particles and air pollutants such as ozone. Understanding human exposures to aeroallergens requires accurate estimates of the spatial distribution of airborne pollen levels as well as of various air pollutants at different times. However, currently there are no established methods for estimating allergenic pollen emissions and concentrations over large geographic areas such as the United States. A mechanistic modeling system for describing pollen emissions and transport over extensive domains has been developed by adapting components of existing regional scale air quality models and vegetation databases. First, components of the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS) were adapted to predict pollen emission patterns. Subsequently, the transport module of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system was modified to incorporate description of pollen transport. The combined model, CMAQ-pollen, allows for simultaneous prediction of multiple air pollutants and pollen levels in a single model simulation, and uses consistent assumptions related to the transport of multiple chemicals and pollen species. Application case studies for evaluating the combined modeling system included the simulation of birch and ragweed pollen levels for the year 2002, during their corresponding peak pollination periods (April for birch and September for ragweed). The model simulations were driven by previously evaluated meteorological model outputs and emissions inventories for the eastern United States for the simulation period. A semi-quantitative evaluation of CMAQ-pollen was performed using tree and ragweed pollen counts in Newark, NJ for the same time periods. The peak birch pollen concentrations were predicted to occur within two days of the peak measurements, while the temporal patterns closely followed the measured profiles of overall tree pollen. For the case of ragweed pollen, the model was able to capture the patterns observed during September 2002, but did not predict an early peak; this can be associated with a wider species pollination window and inadequate spatial information in current land cover databases. An additional sensitivity simulation was performed to comparatively evaluate the dispersion patterns predicted by CMAQ-pollen with those predicted by the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, which is used extensively in aerobiological studies. The CMAQ estimated concentration plumes matched the equivalent pollen scenario modeled with HYSPLIT. The novel pollen modeling approach presented here allows simultaneous estimation of multiple airborne allergens and other air pollutants, and is being developed as a central component of an integrated population exposure modeling system, the Modeling Environment for Total Risk studies (MENTOR) for multiple, co-occurring contaminants that include aeroallergens and irritants.

An elastic failure model of indentation damage. [of brittle structural ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liaw, B. M.; Kobayashi, A. S.; Emery, A. F.

1984-01-01

A mechanistically consistent model for indentation damage based on elastic failure at tensile or shear overloads, is proposed. The model accommodates arbitrary crack orientation, stress relaxation, reduction and recovery of stiffness due to crack opening and closure, and interfacial friction due to backward sliding of closed cracks. This elastic failure model was implemented by an axisymmetric finite element program which was used to simulate progressive damage in a silicon nitride plate indented by a tungsten carbide sphere. The predicted damage patterns and the permanent impression matched those observed experimentally. The validation of this elastic failure model shows that the plastic deformation postulated by others is not necessary to replicate the indentation damage of brittle structural ceramics.

The importance of mechanisms for the evolution of cooperation

PubMed Central

van den Berg, Pieter; Weissing, Franz J.

2015-01-01

Studies aimed at explaining the evolution of phenotypic traits have often solely focused on fitness considerations, ignoring underlying mechanisms. In recent years, there has been an increasing call for integrating mechanistic perspectives in evolutionary considerations, but it is not clear whether and how mechanisms affect the course and outcome of evolution. To study this, we compare four mechanistic implementations of two well-studied models for the evolution of cooperation, the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma (IPD) game and the Iterated Snowdrift (ISD) game. Behavioural strategies are either implemented by a 1 : 1 genotype–phenotype mapping or by a simple neural network. Moreover, we consider two different scenarios for the effect of mutations. The same set of strategies is feasible in all four implementations, but the probability that a given strategy arises owing to mutation is largely dependent on the behavioural and genetic architecture. Our individual-based simulations show that this has major implications for the evolutionary outcome. In the ISD, different evolutionarily stable strategies are predominant in the four implementations, while in the IPD each implementation creates a characteristic dynamical pattern. As a consequence, the evolved average level of cooperation is also strongly dependent on the underlying mechanism. We argue that our findings are of general relevance for the evolution of social behaviour, pleading for the integration of a mechanistic perspective in models of social evolution. PMID:26246554

Plants in silico: why, why now and what?--an integrative platform for plant systems biology research.

PubMed

Zhu, Xin-Guang; Lynch, Jonathan P; LeBauer, David S; Millar, Andrew J; Stitt, Mark; Long, Stephen P

2016-05-01

A paradigm shift is needed and timely in moving plant modelling from largely isolated efforts to a connected community endeavour that can take full advantage of advances in computer science and in mechanistic understanding of plant processes. Plants in silico (Psi) envisions a digital representation of layered dynamic modules, linking from gene networks and metabolic pathways through to cellular organization, tissue, organ and whole plant development, together with resource capture and use efficiency in dynamic competitive environments, ultimately allowing a mechanistically rich simulation of the plant or of a community of plants in silico. The concept is to integrate models or modules from different layers of organization spanning from genome to phenome to ecosystem in a modular framework allowing the use of modules of varying mechanistic detail representing the same biological process. Developments in high-performance computing, functional knowledge of plants, the internet and open-source version controlled software make achieving the concept realistic. Open source will enhance collaboration and move towards testing and consensus on quantitative theoretical frameworks. Importantly, Psi provides a quantitative knowledge framework where the implications of a discovery at one level, for example, single gene function or developmental response, can be examined at the whole plant or even crop and natural ecosystem levels. © 2015 The Authors Plant, Cell & Environment Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Drug-disease modeling in the pharmaceutical industry - where mechanistic systems pharmacology and statistical pharmacometrics meet.

PubMed

Helmlinger, Gabriel; Al-Huniti, Nidal; Aksenov, Sergey; Peskov, Kirill; Hallow, Karen M; Chu, Lulu; Boulton, David; Eriksson, Ulf; Hamrén, Bengt; Lambert, Craig; Masson, Eric; Tomkinson, Helen; Stanski, Donald

2017-11-15

Modeling & simulation (M&S) methodologies are established quantitative tools, which have proven to be useful in supporting the research, development (R&D), regulatory approval, and marketing of novel therapeutics. Applications of M&S help design efficient studies and interpret their results in context of all available data and knowledge to enable effective decision-making during the R&D process. In this mini-review, we focus on two sets of modeling approaches: population-based models, which are well-established within the pharmaceutical industry today, and fall under the discipline of clinical pharmacometrics (PMX); and systems dynamics models, which encompass a range of models of (patho-)physiology amenable to pharmacological intervention, of signaling pathways in biology, and of substance distribution in the body (today known as physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models) - which today may be collectively referred to as quantitative systems pharmacology models (QSP). We next describe the convergence - or rather selected integration - of PMX and QSP approaches into 'middle-out' drug-disease models, which retain selected mechanistic aspects, while remaining parsimonious, fit-for-purpose, and able to address variability and the testing of covariates. We further propose development opportunities for drug-disease systems models, to increase their utility and applicability throughout the preclinical and clinical spectrum of pharmaceutical R&D. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Systems Model of Parkinson's Disease Using Biochemical Systems Theory.

PubMed

Sasidharakurup, Hemalatha; Melethadathil, Nidheesh; Nair, Bipin; Diwakar, Shyam

2017-08-01

Parkinson's disease (PD), a neurodegenerative disorder, affects millions of people and has gained attention because of its clinical roles affecting behaviors related to motor and nonmotor symptoms. Although studies on PD from various aspects are becoming popular, few rely on predictive systems modeling approaches. Using Biochemical Systems Theory (BST), this article attempts to model and characterize dopaminergic cell death and understand pathophysiology of progression of PD. PD pathways were modeled using stochastic differential equations incorporating law of mass action, and initial concentrations for the modeled proteins were obtained from literature. Simulations suggest that dopamine levels were reduced significantly due to an increase in dopaminergic quinones and 3,4-dihydroxyphenylacetaldehyde (DOPAL) relating to imbalances compared to control during PD progression. Associating to clinically observed PD-related cell death, simulations show abnormal parkin and reactive oxygen species levels with an increase in neurofibrillary tangles. While relating molecular mechanistic roles, the BST modeling helps predicting dopaminergic cell death processes involved in the progression of PD and provides a predictive understanding of neuronal dysfunction for translational neuroscience.

Simulation of the Central Indian Ocean Mode in CESM: Implications for the Indian Summer Monsoon System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Lei; Murtugudde, Raghu; Neale, Richard B.; Jochum, Markus

2018-01-01

The simulation of the Indian summer monsoon and its pronounced intraseasonal component in a modern climate model remains a significant challenge. Recently, using observations and reanalysis products, the central Indian Ocean (CIO) mode was found to be a natural mode in the ocean-atmosphere coupled system and also shown to have a close mechanistic connection with the monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO). In this study, the simulation of the actual CIO mode in historical Community Earth System Model (CESM) outputs is assessed by comparing with observations and reanalysis products. The simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a major component of tropical intraseasonal variabilities (ISVs), is satisfactory. However, the CIO mode is not well captured in any of the CESM simulations considered here. The force and response relationship between the atmosphere and the ocean associated with the CIO mode in CESM is opposite to that in nature. The simulated meridional gradient of large-scale zonal winds is too weak, which precludes the necessary energy conversion from the mean state to the ISVs and cuts off the energy source to MISO in CESM. The inability of CESM to reproduce the CIO mode seen clearly in nature highlights the CIO mode as a new dynamical framework for diagnosing the deficiencies in Indian summer monsoon simulation in climate models. The CIO mode is a coupled metric for evaluating climate models and may be a better indicator of a model's skill to accurately capture the tropical multiscale interactions over subseasonal to interannual timescales.

Incorporating an enzymatic model of effects of temperature, moisture, and substrate supply on soil respiration into an ecosystem model for two forests of northeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sihi, Debjani; Davidson, Eric; Chen, Min; Savage, Kathleen; Richardson, Andrew; Keenan, Trevor; Hollinger, David

2017-04-01

Soils represent the largest terrestrial carbon (C) pool, and microbial decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) to carbon dioxide, also called heterotrophic respiration (Rh), is an important component of the global C cycle. Temperature sensitivity of Rh is often represented with a simple Q10 function in ecosystem models and earth system models (ESMs), sometimes accompanied by an empirical soil moisture modifier. More explicit representation of the effects of soil moisture, substrate supply, and their interactions with temperature has been proposed to disentangle the confounding factors of apparent temperature sensitivity of SOM decomposition and improve performance of ecosystem models and ESMs. The objective of this work was to incorporate into an ecosystem model a more mechanistic, but still parsimonious, model of environmental factors controlling Rh. The Dual Arrhenius and Michaelis-Menten (DAMM) model simulates Rh using Michaelis-Menten, Arrhenius, and diffusion functions. Soil moisture affects Rh and its apparent temperature sensitivity in DAMM by regulating the diffusion of oxygen and soluble carbon substrates to the enzymatic reaction site. However, in its current configuration, DAMM depends on assumptions or inputs from other models regarding soil C inputs. Here we merged the DAMM soil flux model with a parsimonious ecosystem flux model, FöBAAR (Forest Biomass, Assimilation, Allocation and Respiration) by replacing FöBAAR's algorithms for Rh with those of DAMM. Classical root trenching experiments provided data to partition soil CO2 efflux into Rh (trenched plot) and root respiration (untrenched minus trenched plots). We used three years of high-frequency soil flux data from automated soil chambers (trenched and untrenched plots) and landscape-scale ecosystem fluxes from eddy covariance towers from two mid-latitude forests (Harvard Forest, MA and Howland Forest, ME) of northeastern USA to develop and validate the merged model and to quantify the uncertainties in a multiple constraints approach. The optimized DAMM-FöBAAR model better captured the seasonal dynamics of Rh compared to the FöBAAR-only model for the Harvard Forest, as indicated by lower cost functions (model-data mismatch). However, DAMM-FöBAAR showed less improvement over FöBAAR-only for the boreal transition forest at Howland. The frequency of droughts is lower at Howland, due to a shallow water table, resulting in only brief water limitation affecting Rh in some years. At both sites, the declining trend of soil respiration during drought episodes was captured by the DAMM-FöBAAR model, but not the FöBAAR-only model, which simulates Rh using only a Q10 type function. Greater confidence in model prediction resulting from the inclusion of mechanistic simulation of moisture limitation on substrate availability, an emergent property of DAMM, depends on site conditions, climate, and the temporal scale of interest. While the DAMM functions require a few more parameters than a simple Q10 function, we have demonstrated that they can be included in an ecosystem model and reduce the cost function. Moreover, the mechanistic structure of the soil moisture effects using DAMM functions should be more generalizable than other commonly used empirical functions.

Health Management and Service Life for Air Force Missiles

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-26

prediction of performance will be conducted DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. PA# TBD 24 • Empiricism ...Strategic Missile A&S Approach Overview Empiricism DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. PA# TBD...Extrapolation Simulated Data 25 • Empiricism cannot always predict future state • Mechanistic method enables enhanced predictions • Mechanistic will not be

Depth- and range-dependent variation in the performance of aquatic telemetry systems: understanding and predicting the susceptibility of acoustic tag-receiver pairs to close proximity detection interference.

PubMed

Scherrer, Stephen R; Rideout, Brendan P; Giorli, Giacomo; Nosal, Eva-Marie; Weng, Kevin C

2018-01-01

Passive acoustic telemetry using coded transmitter tags and stationary receivers is a popular method for tracking movements of aquatic animals. Understanding the performance of these systems is important in array design and in analysis. Close proximity detection interference (CPDI) is a condition where receivers fail to reliably detect tag transmissions. CPDI generally occurs when the tag and receiver are near one another in acoustically reverberant settings. Here we confirm transmission multipaths reflected off the environment arriving at a receiver with sufficient delay relative to the direct signal cause CPDI. We propose a ray-propagation based model to estimate the arrival of energy via multipaths to predict CPDI occurrence, and we show how deeper deployments are particularly susceptible. A series of experiments were designed to develop and validate our model. Deep (300 m) and shallow (25 m) ranging experiments were conducted using Vemco V13 acoustic tags and VR2-W receivers. Probabilistic modeling of hourly detections was used to estimate the average distance a tag could be detected. A mechanistic model for predicting the arrival time of multipaths was developed using parameters from these experiments to calculate the direct and multipath path lengths. This model was retroactively applied to the previous ranging experiments to validate CPDI observations. Two additional experiments were designed to validate predictions of CPDI with respect to combinations of deployment depth and distance. Playback of recorded tags in a tank environment was used to confirm multipaths arriving after the receiver's blanking interval cause CPDI effects. Analysis of empirical data estimated the average maximum detection radius (AMDR), the farthest distance at which 95% of tag transmissions went undetected by receivers, was between 840 and 846 m for the deep ranging experiment across all factor permutations. From these results, CPDI was estimated within a 276.5 m radius of the receiver. These empirical estimations were consistent with mechanistic model predictions. CPDI affected detection at distances closer than 259-326 m from receivers. AMDR determined from the shallow ranging experiment was between 278 and 290 m with CPDI neither predicted nor observed. Results of validation experiments were consistent with mechanistic model predictions. Finally, we were able to predict detection/nondetection with 95.7% accuracy using the mechanistic model's criterion when simulating transmissions with and without multipaths. Close proximity detection interference results from combinations of depth and distance that produce reflected signals arriving after a receiver's blanking interval has ended. Deployment scenarios resulting in CPDI can be predicted with the proposed mechanistic model. For deeper deployments, sea-surface reflections can produce CPDI conditions, resulting in transmission rejection, regardless of the reflective properties of the seafloor.

Crops In Silico: Generating Virtual Crops Using an Integrative and Multi-scale Modeling Platform.

PubMed

Marshall-Colon, Amy; Long, Stephen P; Allen, Douglas K; Allen, Gabrielle; Beard, Daniel A; Benes, Bedrich; von Caemmerer, Susanne; Christensen, A J; Cox, Donna J; Hart, John C; Hirst, Peter M; Kannan, Kavya; Katz, Daniel S; Lynch, Jonathan P; Millar, Andrew J; Panneerselvam, Balaji; Price, Nathan D; Prusinkiewicz, Przemyslaw; Raila, David; Shekar, Rachel G; Shrivastava, Stuti; Shukla, Diwakar; Srinivasan, Venkatraman; Stitt, Mark; Turk, Matthew J; Voit, Eberhard O; Wang, Yu; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Xin-Guang

2017-01-01

Multi-scale models can facilitate whole plant simulations by linking gene networks, protein synthesis, metabolic pathways, physiology, and growth. Whole plant models can be further integrated with ecosystem, weather, and climate models to predict how various interactions respond to environmental perturbations. These models have the potential to fill in missing mechanistic details and generate new hypotheses to prioritize directed engineering efforts. Outcomes will potentially accelerate improvement of crop yield, sustainability, and increase future food security. It is time for a paradigm shift in plant modeling, from largely isolated efforts to a connected community that takes advantage of advances in high performance computing and mechanistic understanding of plant processes. Tools for guiding future crop breeding and engineering, understanding the implications of discoveries at the molecular level for whole plant behavior, and improved prediction of plant and ecosystem responses to the environment are urgently needed. The purpose of this perspective is to introduce Crops in silico (cropsinsilico.org), an integrative and multi-scale modeling platform, as one solution that combines isolated modeling efforts toward the generation of virtual crops, which is open and accessible to the entire plant biology community. The major challenges involved both in the development and deployment of a shared, multi-scale modeling platform, which are summarized in this prospectus, were recently identified during the first Crops in silico Symposium and Workshop.

Crops In Silico: Generating Virtual Crops Using an Integrative and Multi-scale Modeling Platform

PubMed Central

Marshall-Colon, Amy; Long, Stephen P.; Allen, Douglas K.; Allen, Gabrielle; Beard, Daniel A.; Benes, Bedrich; von Caemmerer, Susanne; Christensen, A. J.; Cox, Donna J.; Hart, John C.; Hirst, Peter M.; Kannan, Kavya; Katz, Daniel S.; Lynch, Jonathan P.; Millar, Andrew J.; Panneerselvam, Balaji; Price, Nathan D.; Prusinkiewicz, Przemyslaw; Raila, David; Shekar, Rachel G.; Shrivastava, Stuti; Shukla, Diwakar; Srinivasan, Venkatraman; Stitt, Mark; Turk, Matthew J.; Voit, Eberhard O.; Wang, Yu; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Xin-Guang

2017-01-01

Multi-scale models can facilitate whole plant simulations by linking gene networks, protein synthesis, metabolic pathways, physiology, and growth. Whole plant models can be further integrated with ecosystem, weather, and climate models to predict how various interactions respond to environmental perturbations. These models have the potential to fill in missing mechanistic details and generate new hypotheses to prioritize directed engineering efforts. Outcomes will potentially accelerate improvement of crop yield, sustainability, and increase future food security. It is time for a paradigm shift in plant modeling, from largely isolated efforts to a connected community that takes advantage of advances in high performance computing and mechanistic understanding of plant processes. Tools for guiding future crop breeding and engineering, understanding the implications of discoveries at the molecular level for whole plant behavior, and improved prediction of plant and ecosystem responses to the environment are urgently needed. The purpose of this perspective is to introduce Crops in silico (cropsinsilico.org), an integrative and multi-scale modeling platform, as one solution that combines isolated modeling efforts toward the generation of virtual crops, which is open and accessible to the entire plant biology community. The major challenges involved both in the development and deployment of a shared, multi-scale modeling platform, which are summarized in this prospectus, were recently identified during the first Crops in silico Symposium and Workshop. PMID:28555150

A mechanistic framework for in vitro-in vivo extrapolation of liver membrane transporters: prediction of drug-drug interaction between rosuvastatin and cyclosporine.

PubMed

Jamei, M; Bajot, F; Neuhoff, S; Barter, Z; Yang, J; Rostami-Hodjegan, A; Rowland-Yeo, K

2014-01-01

The interplay between liver metabolising enzymes and transporters is a complex process involving system-related parameters such as liver blood perfusion as well as drug attributes including protein and lipid binding, ionisation, relative magnitude of passive and active permeation. Metabolism- and/or transporter-mediated drug-drug interactions (mDDIs and tDDIs) add to the complexity of this interplay. Thus, gaining meaningful insight into the impact of each element on the disposition of a drug and accurately predicting drug-drug interactions becomes very challenging. To address this, an in vitro-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE)-linked mechanistic physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) framework for modelling liver transporters and their interplay with liver metabolising enzymes has been developed and implemented within the Simcyp Simulator(®). In this article an IVIVE technique for liver transporters is described and a full-body PBPK model is developed. Passive and active (saturable) transport at both liver sinusoidal and canalicular membranes are accounted for and the impact of binding and ionisation processes is considered. The model also accommodates tDDIs involving inhibition of multiple transporters. Integrating prior in vitro information on the metabolism and transporter kinetics of rosuvastatin (organic-anion transporting polypeptides OATP1B1, OAT1B3 and OATP2B1, sodium-dependent taurocholate co-transporting polypeptide [NTCP] and breast cancer resistance protein [BCRP]) with one clinical dataset, the PBPK model was used to simulate the drug disposition of rosuvastatin for 11 reported studies that had not been used for development of the rosuvastatin model. The simulated area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC), maximum concentration (C max) and the time to reach C max (t max) values of rosuvastatin over the dose range of 10-80 mg, were within 2-fold of the observed data. Subsequently, the validated model was used to investigate the impact of coadministration of cyclosporine (ciclosporin), an inhibitor of OATPs, BCRP and NTCP, on the exposure of rosuvastatin in healthy volunteers. The results show the utility of the model to integrate a wide range of in vitro and in vivo data and simulate the outcome of clinical studies, with implications for their design.

Complex patterns of abnormal heartbeats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schulte-Frohlinde, Verena; Ashkenazy, Yosef; Goldberger, Ary L.; Ivanov, Plamen Ch; Costa, Madalena; Morley-Davies, Adrian; Stanley, H. Eugene; Glass, Leon

2002-01-01

Individuals having frequent abnormal heartbeats interspersed with normal heartbeats may be at an increased risk of sudden cardiac death. However, mechanistic understanding of such cardiac arrhythmias is limited. We present a visual and qualitative method to display statistical properties of abnormal heartbeats. We introduce dynamical "heartprints" which reveal characteristic patterns in long clinical records encompassing approximately 10(5) heartbeats and may provide information about underlying mechanisms. We test if these dynamics can be reproduced by model simulations in which abnormal heartbeats are generated (i) randomly, (ii) at a fixed time interval following a preceding normal heartbeat, or (iii) by an independent oscillator that may or may not interact with the normal heartbeat. We compare the results of these three models and test their limitations to comprehensively simulate the statistical features of selected clinical records. This work introduces methods that can be used to test mathematical models of arrhythmogenesis and to develop a new understanding of underlying electrophysiologic mechanisms of cardiac arrhythmia.

How do current irrigation practices perform? Evaluation of different irrigation scheduling approaches based on experiements and crop model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidel, Sabine J.; Werisch, Stefan; Barfus, Klemens; Wagner, Michael; Schütze, Niels; Laber, Hermann

2014-05-01

The increasing worldwide water scarcity, costs and negative off-site effects of irrigation are leading to the necessity of developing methods of irrigation that increase water productivity. Various approaches are available for irrigation scheduling. Traditionally schedules are calculated based on soil water balance (SWB) calculations using some measure of reference evaporation and empirical crop coeffcients. These crop-specific coefficients are provided by the FAO but are also available for different regions (e.g. Germany). The approach is simple but there are several inaccuracies due to simplifications and limitations such as poor transferability. Crop growth models - which simulate the main physiological plant processes through a set of assumptions and calibration parameter - are widely used to support decision making, but also for yield gap or scenario analyses. One major advantage of mechanistic models compared to empirical approaches is their spatial and temporal transferability. Irrigation scheduling can also be based on measurements of soil water tension which is closely related to plant stress. Advantages of precise and easy measurements are able to be automated but face difficulties of finding the place where to probe especially in heterogenous soils. In this study, a two-year field experiment was used to extensively evaluate the three mentioned irrigation scheduling approaches regarding their efficiency on irrigation water application with the aim to promote better agronomic practices in irrigated horticulture. To evaluate the tested irrigation scheduling approaches, an extensive plant and soil water data collection was used to precisely calibrate the mechanistic crop model Daisy. The experiment was conducted with white cabbage (Brassica oleracea L.) on a sandy loamy field in 2012/13 near Dresden, Germany. Hereby, three irrigation scheduling approaches were tested: (i) two schedules were estimated based on SWB calculations using different crop coefficients, and (ii) one treatment was automatically drip irrigated using tensiometers (irrigation of 15 mm at a soil tension of -250 hPa at 30 cm soil depth). In treatment (iii), the irrigation schedule was estimated (using the same critera as in the tension-based treatment) applying the model Daisy partially calibrated against data of 2012. Moreover, one control treatment was minimally irrigated. Measured yield was highest for the tension-based treatment with a low irrigation water input (8.5 DM t/ha, 120 mm). Both SWB treatments showed lower yields and higher irrigation water input (both 8.3 DM t/ha, 306 and 410 mm). The simulation model based treatment yielded lower (7.5 DM t/ha, 106 mm) mainly due to drought stress caused by inaccurate simulation of the soil water dynamics and thus an overestimation of the soil moisture. The evaluation using the calibrated model estimated heavy deep percolation under both SWB treatments. Targeting the challenge to increase water productivity, soil water tension-based irrigation should be favoured. Irrigation scheduling based on SWB calculation requires accurate estimates of crop coefficients. A robust calibration of mechanistic crop models implies a high effort and can be recommended to farmers only to some extent but enables comprehensive crop growth and site analyses.

Fast charging technique for high power LiFePO4 batteries: A mechanistic analysis of aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anseán, D.; Dubarry, M.; Devie, A.; Liaw, B. Y.; García, V. M.; Viera, J. C.; González, M.

2016-07-01

One of the major issues hampering the acceptance of electric vehicles (EVs) is the anxiety associated with long charging time. Hence, the ability to fast charging lithium-ion battery (LIB) systems is gaining notable interest. However, fast charging is not tolerated by all LIB chemistries because it affects battery functionality and accelerates its aging processes. Here, we investigate the long-term effects of multistage fast charging on a commercial high power LiFePO4-based cell and compare it to another cell tested under standard charging. Coupling incremental capacity (IC) and IC peak area analysis together with mechanistic model simulations ('Alawa' toolbox with harvested half-cell data), we quantify the degradation modes that cause aging of the tested cells. The results show that the proposed fast charging technique caused similar aging effects as standard charging. The degradation is caused by a linear loss of lithium inventory, coupled with a less degree of linear loss of active material on the negative electrode. This study validates fast charging as a feasible mean of operation for this particular LIB chemistry and cell architecture. It also illustrates the benefits of a mechanistic approach to understand cell degradation on commercial cells.

Modeling of larch forest dynamics under a changing climate in eastern Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakai, T.; Kumagai, T.; Iijima, Y.; Ohta, T.; Kotani, A.; Maximov, T. C.; Hiyama, T.

2017-12-01

According to the projection by an earth system model under RCP8.5 scenario, boreal forest in eastern Siberia (near Yakutsk) is predicted to experience significant changes in climate, in which the mean annual air temperature is projected to be positive and the annual precipitation will be doubled by the end of 21st century. Since the forest in this region is underlain by continuous permafrost, both increasing temperature and precipitation can affect the dynamics of forest through the soil water processes. To investigate such effects, we adopted a newly developed terrestrial ecosystem dynamics model named S-TEDy (SEIB-DGVM-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics model), which mechanistically simulates "the way of life" of each individual tree and resulting tree mortality under the future climate conditions. This model was first developed for the simulation of the dynamics of a tropical rainforest in the Borneo Island, and successfully reproduced higher mortality of large trees due to a prolonged drought induced by ENSO event of 1997-1998. To apply this model to a larch forest in eastern Siberia, we are developing a soil submodel to consider the effect of thawing-freezing processes. We will present a simulation results using the future climate projection.

A white-box model of S-shaped and double S-shaped single-species population growth

PubMed Central

Kalmykov, Lev V.

2015-01-01

Complex systems may be mechanistically modelled by white-box modeling with using logical deterministic individual-based cellular automata. Mathematical models of complex systems are of three types: black-box (phenomenological), white-box (mechanistic, based on the first principles) and grey-box (mixtures of phenomenological and mechanistic models). Most basic ecological models are of black-box type, including Malthusian, Verhulst, Lotka–Volterra models. In black-box models, the individual-based (mechanistic) mechanisms of population dynamics remain hidden. Here we mechanistically model the S-shaped and double S-shaped population growth of vegetatively propagated rhizomatous lawn grasses. Using purely logical deterministic individual-based cellular automata we create a white-box model. From a general physical standpoint, the vegetative propagation of plants is an analogue of excitation propagation in excitable media. Using the Monte Carlo method, we investigate a role of different initial positioning of an individual in the habitat. We have investigated mechanisms of the single-species population growth limited by habitat size, intraspecific competition, regeneration time and fecundity of individuals in two types of boundary conditions and at two types of fecundity. Besides that, we have compared the S-shaped and J-shaped population growth. We consider this white-box modeling approach as a method of artificial intelligence which works as automatic hyper-logical inference from the first principles of the studied subject. This approach is perspective for direct mechanistic insights into nature of any complex systems. PMID:26038717

Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (NEAMS Waste IPSC).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schultz, Peter Andrew

The objective of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (NEAMS Waste IPSC) is to provide an integrated suite of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities to quantitatively assess the long-term performance of waste forms in the engineered and geologic environments of a radioactive-waste storage facility or disposal repository. Achieving the objective of modeling the performance of a disposal scenario requires describing processes involved in waste form degradation and radionuclide release at the subcontinuum scale, beginning with mechanistic descriptions of chemical reactions and chemical kinetics at the atomicmore » scale, and upscaling into effective, validated constitutive models for input to high-fidelity continuum scale codes for coupled multiphysics simulations of release and transport. Verification and validation (V&V) is required throughout the system to establish evidence-based metrics for the level of confidence in M&S codes and capabilities, including at the subcontiunuum scale and the constitutive models they inform or generate. This Report outlines the nature of the V&V challenge at the subcontinuum scale, an approach to incorporate V&V concepts into subcontinuum scale modeling and simulation (M&S), and a plan to incrementally incorporate effective V&V into subcontinuum scale M&S destined for use in the NEAMS Waste IPSC work flow to meet requirements of quantitative confidence in the constitutive models informed by subcontinuum scale phenomena.« less

Mechanistic links between cellular trade-offs, gene expression, and growth.

PubMed

Weiße, Andrea Y; Oyarzún, Diego A; Danos, Vincent; Swain, Peter S

2015-03-03

Intracellular processes rarely work in isolation but continually interact with the rest of the cell. In microbes, for example, we now know that gene expression across the whole genome typically changes with growth rate. The mechanisms driving such global regulation, however, are not well understood. Here we consider three trade-offs that, because of limitations in levels of cellular energy, free ribosomes, and proteins, are faced by all living cells and we construct a mechanistic model that comprises these trade-offs. Our model couples gene expression with growth rate and growth rate with a growing population of cells. We show that the model recovers Monod's law for the growth of microbes and two other empirical relationships connecting growth rate to the mass fraction of ribosomes. Further, we can explain growth-related effects in dosage compensation by paralogs and predict host-circuit interactions in synthetic biology. Simulating competitions between strains, we find that the regulation of metabolic pathways may have evolved not to match expression of enzymes to levels of extracellular substrates in changing environments but rather to balance a trade-off between exploiting one type of nutrient over another. Although coarse-grained, the trade-offs that the model embodies are fundamental, and, as such, our modeling framework has potentially wide application, including in both biotechnology and medicine.

Mechanistic investigation of the formation of H2 from HCOOH with a dinuclear Ru model complex for formate hydrogen lyase.

PubMed

Tokunaga, Taisuke; Yatabe, Takeshi; Matsumoto, Takahiro; Ando, Tatsuya; Yoon, Ki-Seok; Ogo, Seiji

2017-01-01

We report the mechanistic investigation of catalytic H 2 evolution from formic acid in water using a formate-bridged dinuclear Ru complex as a formate hydrogen lyase model. The mechanistic study is based on isotope-labeling experiments involving hydrogen isotope exchange reaction.

Modeling the Effects of Lipid Composition on Stratum Corneum Bilayers Using Molecular Dynamics Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huzil, J. Torin; Sivaloganathan, Siv; Kohandel, Mohammad; Foldvari, Marianna

2011-11-01

The advancement of dermal and transdermal drug delivery requires the development of delivery systems that are suitable for large protein and nucleic acid-based therapeutic agents. However, a complete mechanistic understanding of the physical barrier properties associated with the epidermis, specifically the membrane structures within the stratum corneum, has yet to be developed. Here, we describe the assembly and computational modeling of stratum corneum lipid bilayers constructed from varying ratios of their constituent lipids (ceramide, free fatty acids and cholesterol) to determine if there is a difference in the physical properties of stratum corneum compositions.

Hydrology of Malaria: A New Class of Models for Environmental Management and Studies of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, E. A.

2011-12-01

A mechanistic and spatially-explicit model of hydrological and entomological processes that lead to malaria transmission is developed and tested against field observations. HYDREMATS (HYDRology, Entomology, and MAlaria Transmission Simulator) is described in (Bomblies and Eltahir, WRR, 44,2008). HYDREMATS is suitable for low cost screening of environmental management interventions, and for studying the impact of climate change on malaria transmission. Examples of specific applications will be presented from Niger in Africa. The potential for using HYDREMATS to study the impact of water reservoirs on malaria transmission will be discussed.

Advanced Mechanistic 3D Spatial Modeling and Analysis Methods to Accurately Represent Nuclear Facility External Event Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sezen, Halil; Aldemir, Tunc; Denning, R.

Probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants initially focused on events initiated by internal faults at the plant, rather than external hazards including earthquakes and flooding. Although the importance of external hazards risk analysis is now well recognized, the methods for analyzing low probability external hazards rely heavily on subjective judgment of specialists, often resulting in substantial conservatism. This research developed a framework to integrate the risk of seismic and flooding events using realistic structural models and simulation of response of nuclear structures. The results of four application case studies are presented.

A Detailed Physiologically Based Model to Simulate the Pharmacokinetics and Hormonal Pharmacodynamics of Enalapril on the Circulating Endocrine Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System

PubMed Central

Claassen, Karina; Willmann, Stefan; Eissing, Thomas; Preusser, Tobias; Block, Michael

2013-01-01

The renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) plays a key role in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disorders including hypertension and is one of the most important targets for drugs. A whole body physiologically based pharmacokinetic (wb PBPK) model integrating this hormone circulation system and its inhibition can be used to explore the influence of drugs that interfere with this system, and thus to improve the understanding of interactions between drugs and the target system. In this study, we describe the development of a mechanistic RAAS model and exemplify drug action by a simulation of enalapril administration. Enalapril and its metabolite enalaprilat are potent inhibitors of the angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE). To this end, a coupled dynamic parent-metabolite PBPK model was developed and linked with the RAAS model that consists of seven coupled PBPK models for aldosterone, ACE, angiotensin 1, angiotensin 2, angiotensin 2 receptor type 1, renin, and prorenin. The results indicate that the model represents the interactions in the RAAS in response to the pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) of enalapril and enalaprilat in an accurate manner. The full set of RAAS-hormone profiles and interactions are consistently described at pre- and post-administration steady state as well as during their dynamic transition and show a good agreement with literature data. The model allows a simultaneous representation of the parent-metabolite conversion to the active form as well as the effect of the drug on the hormone levels, offering a detailed mechanistic insight into the hormone cascade and its inhibition. This model constitutes a first major step to establish a PBPK-PD-model including the PK and the mode of action (MoA) of a drug acting on a dynamic RAAS that can be further used to link to clinical endpoints such as blood pressure. PMID:23404365

A Mechanistic Pharmacokinetic Model for Liver Transporter Substrates Under Liver Cirrhosis Conditions

PubMed Central

Li, R; Barton, HA; Maurer, TS

2015-01-01

Liver cirrhosis is a disease characterized by the loss of functional liver mass. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling was applied to interpret and predict how the interplay among physiological changes in cirrhosis affects pharmacokinetics. However, previous PBPK models under cirrhotic conditions were developed for permeable cytochrome P450 substrates and do not directly apply to substrates of liver transporters. This study characterizes a PBPK model for liver transporter substrates in relation to the severity of liver cirrhosis. A published PBPK model structure for liver transporter substrates under healthy conditions and the physiological changes for cirrhosis are combined to simulate pharmacokinetics of liver transporter substrates in patients with mild and moderate cirrhosis. The simulated pharmacokinetics under liver cirrhosis reasonably approximate observations. This analysis includes meta-analysis to obtain system-dependent parameters in cirrhosis patients and a top-down approach to improve understanding of the effect of cirrhosis on transporter-mediated drug disposition under cirrhotic conditions. PMID:26225262

WE-DE-202-02: Are Track Structure Simulations Truly Needed for Radiobiology at the Cellular and Tissue Levels?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stewart, R.

Radiation therapy for the treatment of cancer has been established as a highly precise and effective way to eradicate a localized region of diseased tissue. To achieve further significant gains in the therapeutic ratio, we need to move towards biologically optimized treatment planning. To achieve this goal, we need to understand how the radiation-type dependent patterns of induced energy depositions within the cell (physics) connect via molecular, cellular and tissue reactions to treatment outcome such as tumor control and undesirable effects on normal tissue. Several computational biology approaches have been developed connecting physics to biology. Monte Carlo simulations are themore » most accurate method to calculate physical dose distributions at the nanometer scale, however simulations at the DNA scale are slow and repair processes are generally not simulated. Alternative models that rely on the random formation of individual DNA lesions within one or two turns of the DNA have been shown to reproduce the clusters of DNA lesions, including single strand breaks (SSBs), double strand breaks (DSBs) without the need for detailed track structure simulations. Efficient computational simulations of initial DNA damage induction facilitate computational modeling of DNA repair and other molecular and cellular processes. Mechanistic, multiscale models provide a useful conceptual framework to test biological hypotheses and help connect fundamental information about track structure and dosimetry at the sub-cellular level to dose-response effects on larger scales. In this symposium we will learn about the current state of the art of computational approaches estimating radiation damage at the cellular and sub-cellular scale. How can understanding the physics interactions at the DNA level be used to predict biological outcome? We will discuss if and how such calculations are relevant to advance our understanding of radiation damage and its repair, or, if the underlying biological processes are too complex for a mechanistic approach. Can computer simulations be used to guide future biological research? We will debate the feasibility of explaining biology from a physicists’ perspective. Learning Objectives: Understand the potential applications and limitations of computational methods for dose-response modeling at the molecular, cellular and tissue levels Learn about mechanism of action underlying the induction, repair and biological processing of damage to DNA and other constituents Understand how effects and processes at one biological scale impact on biological processes and outcomes on other scales J. Schuemann, NCI/NIH grantsS. McMahon, Funding: European Commission FP7 (grant EC FP7 MC-IOF-623630)« less

WE-DE-202-01: Connecting Nanoscale Physics to Initial DNA Damage Through Track Structure Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schuemann, J.

Radiation therapy for the treatment of cancer has been established as a highly precise and effective way to eradicate a localized region of diseased tissue. To achieve further significant gains in the therapeutic ratio, we need to move towards biologically optimized treatment planning. To achieve this goal, we need to understand how the radiation-type dependent patterns of induced energy depositions within the cell (physics) connect via molecular, cellular and tissue reactions to treatment outcome such as tumor control and undesirable effects on normal tissue. Several computational biology approaches have been developed connecting physics to biology. Monte Carlo simulations are themore » most accurate method to calculate physical dose distributions at the nanometer scale, however simulations at the DNA scale are slow and repair processes are generally not simulated. Alternative models that rely on the random formation of individual DNA lesions within one or two turns of the DNA have been shown to reproduce the clusters of DNA lesions, including single strand breaks (SSBs), double strand breaks (DSBs) without the need for detailed track structure simulations. Efficient computational simulations of initial DNA damage induction facilitate computational modeling of DNA repair and other molecular and cellular processes. Mechanistic, multiscale models provide a useful conceptual framework to test biological hypotheses and help connect fundamental information about track structure and dosimetry at the sub-cellular level to dose-response effects on larger scales. In this symposium we will learn about the current state of the art of computational approaches estimating radiation damage at the cellular and sub-cellular scale. How can understanding the physics interactions at the DNA level be used to predict biological outcome? We will discuss if and how such calculations are relevant to advance our understanding of radiation damage and its repair, or, if the underlying biological processes are too complex for a mechanistic approach. Can computer simulations be used to guide future biological research? We will debate the feasibility of explaining biology from a physicists’ perspective. Learning Objectives: Understand the potential applications and limitations of computational methods for dose-response modeling at the molecular, cellular and tissue levels Learn about mechanism of action underlying the induction, repair and biological processing of damage to DNA and other constituents Understand how effects and processes at one biological scale impact on biological processes and outcomes on other scales J. Schuemann, NCI/NIH grantsS. McMahon, Funding: European Commission FP7 (grant EC FP7 MC-IOF-623630)« less

Genetic algorithm applied to a Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere system: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Sébastien; Jacques, Diederik; Mallants, Dirk

2010-05-01

Numerical models are of precious help for predicting water fluxes in the vadose zone and more specifically in Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere (SVA) systems. For such simulations, robust models and representative soil hydraulic parameters are required. Calibration of unsaturated hydraulic properties is known to be a difficult optimization problem due to the high non-linearity of the water flow equations. Therefore, robust methods are needed to avoid the optimization process to lead to non-optimal parameters. Evolutionary algorithms and specifically genetic algorithms (GAs) are very well suited for those complex parameter optimization problems. Additionally, GAs offer the opportunity to assess the confidence in the hydraulic parameter estimations, because of the large number of model realizations. The SVA system in this study concerns a pine stand on a heterogeneous sandy soil (podzol) in the Campine region in the north of Belgium. Throughfall and other meteorological data and water contents at different soil depths have been recorded during one year at a daily time step in two lysimeters. The water table level, which is varying between 95 and 170 cm, has been recorded with intervals of 0.5 hour. The leaf area index was measured as well at some selected time moments during the year in order to evaluate the energy which reaches the soil and to deduce the potential evaporation. Water contents at several depths have been recorded. Based on the profile description, five soil layers have been distinguished in the podzol. Two models have been used for simulating water fluxes: (i) a mechanistic model, the HYDRUS-1D model, which solves the Richards' equation, and (ii) a compartmental model, which treats the soil profile as a bucket into which water flows until its maximum capacity is reached. A global sensitivity analysis (Morris' one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis) was run previously to the calibration, in order to check the sensitivity in the chosen parameter search space. For the inversion procedure a genetical algorithm (GA) was used. Specific features such as elitism, roulette-wheel process for selection operator and island theory were implemented. Optimization was based on the water content measurements recorded at several depths. Ten scenarios have been elaborated and applied on the two lysimeters in order to investigate the impact of the conceptual model in terms of processes description (mechanistic or compartmental) and geometry (number of horizons in the profile description) on the calibration accuracy. Calibration leads to a good agreement with the measured water contents. The most critical parameters for improving the goodness of fit are the number of horizons and the type of process description. Best fit are found for a mechanistic model with 5 horizons resulting in absolute differences between observed and simulated water contents less than 0.02 cm3cm-3 in average. Parameter estimate analysis shows that layers thicknesses are poorly constrained whereas hydraulic parameters are much well defined.

Testing the molecular clock using mechanistic models of fossil preservation and molecular evolution

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Molecular sequence data provide information about relative times only, and fossil-based age constraints are the ultimate source of information about absolute times in molecular clock dating analyses. Thus, fossil calibrations are critical to molecular clock dating, but competing methods are difficult to evaluate empirically because the true evolutionary time scale is never known. Here, we combine mechanistic models of fossil preservation and sequence evolution in simulations to evaluate different approaches to constructing fossil calibrations and their impact on Bayesian molecular clock dating, and the relative impact of fossil versus molecular sampling. We show that divergence time estimation is impacted by the model of fossil preservation, sampling intensity and tree shape. The addition of sequence data may improve molecular clock estimates, but accuracy and precision is dominated by the quality of the fossil calibrations. Posterior means and medians are poor representatives of true divergence times; posterior intervals provide a much more accurate estimate of divergence times, though they may be wide and often do not have high coverage probability. Our results highlight the importance of increased fossil sampling and improved statistical approaches to generating calibrations, which should incorporate the non-uniform nature of ecological and temporal fossil species distributions. PMID:28637852

Mechanistic simulation of batch acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) fermentation with in situ gas stripping using Aspen Plus™.

PubMed

Darkwah, Kwabena; Nokes, Sue E; Seay, Jeffrey R; Knutson, Barbara L

2018-05-22

Process simulations of batch fermentations with in situ product separation traditionally decouple these interdependent steps by simulating a separate "steady state" continuous fermentation and separation units. In this study, an integrated batch fermentation and separation process was simulated for a model system of acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) fermentation with in situ gas stripping, such that the fermentation kinetics are linked in real-time to the gas stripping process. A time-dependent cell growth, substrate utilization, and product production is translated to an Aspen Plus batch reactor. This approach capitalizes on the phase equilibria calculations of Aspen Plus to predict the effect of stripping on the ABE fermentation kinetics. The product profiles of the integrated fermentation and separation are shown to be sensitive to gas flow rate, unlike separate steady state fermentation and separation simulations. This study demonstrates the importance of coupled fermentation and separation simulation approaches for the systematic analyses of unsteady state processes.

The development of an industrial-scale fed-batch fermentation simulation.

PubMed

Goldrick, Stephen; Ştefan, Andrei; Lovett, David; Montague, Gary; Lennox, Barry

2015-01-10

This paper describes a simulation of an industrial-scale fed-batch fermentation that can be used as a benchmark in process systems analysis and control studies. The simulation was developed using a mechanistic model and validated using historical data collected from an industrial-scale penicillin fermentation process. Each batch was carried out in a 100,000 L bioreactor that used an industrial strain of Penicillium chrysogenum. The manipulated variables recorded during each batch were used as inputs to the simulator and the predicted outputs were then compared with the on-line and off-line measurements recorded in the real process. The simulator adapted a previously published structured model to describe the penicillin fermentation and extended it to include the main environmental effects of dissolved oxygen, viscosity, temperature, pH and dissolved carbon dioxide. In addition the effects of nitrogen and phenylacetic acid concentrations on the biomass and penicillin production rates were also included. The simulated model predictions of all the on-line and off-line process measurements, including the off-gas analysis, were in good agreement with the batch records. The simulator and industrial process data are available to download at www.industrialpenicillinsimulation.com and can be used to evaluate, study and improve on the current control strategy implemented on this facility. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing mechanistic models of growth in insects.

PubMed

Maino, James L; Kearney, Michael R

2015-11-22

Insects are typified by their small size, large numbers, impressive reproductive output and rapid growth. However, insect growth is not simply rapid; rather, insects follow a qualitatively distinct trajectory to many other animals. Here we present a mechanistic growth model for insects and show that increasing specific assimilation during the growth phase can explain the near-exponential growth trajectory of insects. The presented model is tested against growth data on 50 insects, and compared against other mechanistic growth models. Unlike the other mechanistic models, our growth model predicts energy reserves per biomass to increase with age, which implies a higher production efficiency and energy density of biomass in later instars. These predictions are tested against data compiled from the literature whereby it is confirmed that insects increase their production efficiency (by 24 percentage points) and energy density (by 4 J mg(-1)) between hatching and the attainment of full size. The model suggests that insects achieve greater production efficiencies and enhanced growth rates by increasing specific assimilation and increasing energy reserves per biomass, which are less costly to maintain than structural biomass. Our findings illustrate how the explanatory and predictive power of mechanistic growth models comes from their grounding in underlying biological processes. © 2015 The Author(s).

A network of molecular switches controls the activation of the two-component response regulator NtrC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanatta, Dan K.; Shukla, Diwakar; Lawrenz, Morgan; Pande, Vijay S.

2015-06-01

Recent successes in simulating protein structure and folding dynamics have demonstrated the power of molecular dynamics to predict the long timescale behaviour of proteins. Here, we extend and improve these methods to predict molecular switches that characterize conformational change pathways between the active and inactive state of nitrogen regulatory protein C (NtrC). By employing unbiased Markov state model-based molecular dynamics simulations, we construct a dynamic picture of the activation pathways of this key bacterial signalling protein that is consistent with experimental observations and predicts new mutants that could be used for validation of the mechanism. Moreover, these results suggest a novel mechanistic paradigm for conformational switching.

Untangling climate signals from autogenic changes in long-term peatland development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morris, Paul J.; Baird, Andy J.; Young, Dylan M.; Swindles, Graeme T.

2015-12-01

Peatlands represent important archives of Holocene paleoclimatic information. However, autogenic processes may disconnect peatland hydrological behavior from climate and overwrite climatic signals in peat records. We use a simulation model of peatland development driven by a range of Holocene climate reconstructions to investigate climate signal preservation in peat records. Simulated water-table depths and peat decomposition profiles exhibit homeostatic recovery from prescribed changes in rainfall, whereas changes in temperature cause lasting alterations to peatland structure and function. Autogenic ecohydrological feedbacks provide both high- and low-pass filters for climatic information, particularly rainfall. Large-magnitude climatic changes of an intermediate temporal scale (i.e., multidecadal to centennial) are most readily preserved in our simulated peat records. Simulated decomposition signals are offset from the climatic changes that generate them due to a phenomenon known as secondary decomposition. Our study provides the mechanistic foundations for a framework to separate climatic and autogenic signals in peat records.

A mechanistic model for electricity consumption on dairy farms: definition, validation, and demonstration.

PubMed

Upton, J; Murphy, M; Shalloo, L; Groot Koerkamp, P W G; De Boer, I J M

2014-01-01

Our objective was to define and demonstrate a mechanistic model that enables dairy farmers to explore the impact of a technical or managerial innovation on electricity consumption, associated CO2 emissions, and electricity costs. We, therefore, (1) defined a model for electricity consumption on dairy farms (MECD) capable of simulating total electricity consumption along with related CO2 emissions and electricity costs on dairy farms on a monthly basis; (2) validated the MECD using empirical data of 1yr on commercial spring calving, grass-based dairy farms with 45, 88, and 195 milking cows; and (3) demonstrated the functionality of the model by applying 2 electricity tariffs to the electricity consumption data and examining the effect on total dairy farm electricity costs. The MECD was developed using a mechanistic modeling approach and required the key inputs of milk production, cow number, and details relating to the milk-cooling system, milking machine system, water-heating system, lighting systems, water pump systems, and the winter housing facilities as well as details relating to the management of the farm (e.g., season of calving). Model validation showed an overall relative prediction error (RPE) of less than 10% for total electricity consumption. More than 87% of the mean square prediction error of total electricity consumption was accounted for by random variation. The RPE values of the milk-cooling systems, water-heating systems, and milking machine systems were less than 20%. The RPE values for automatic scraper systems, lighting systems, and water pump systems varied from 18 to 113%, indicating a poor prediction for these metrics. However, automatic scrapers, lighting, and water pumps made up only 14% of total electricity consumption across all farms, reducing the overall impact of these poor predictions. Demonstration of the model showed that total farm electricity costs increased by between 29 and 38% by moving from a day and night tariff to a flat tariff. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fast Biological Modeling for Voxel-based Heavy Ion Treatment Planning Using the Mechanistic Repair-Misrepair-Fixation Model and Nuclear Fragment Spectra

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kamp, Florian; Department of Radiation Oncology, Technische Universität München, Klinikum Rechts der Isar, München; Physik-Department, Technische Universität München, Garching

2015-11-01

Purpose: The physical and biological differences between heavy ions and photons have not been fully exploited and could improve treatment outcomes. In carbon ion therapy, treatment planning must account for physical properties, such as the absorbed dose and nuclear fragmentation, and for differences in the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of ions compared with photons. We combined the mechanistic repair-misrepair-fixation (RMF) model with Monte Carlo-generated fragmentation spectra for biological optimization of carbon ion treatment plans. Methods and Materials: Relative changes in double-strand break yields and radiosensitivity parameters with particle type and energy were determined using the independently benchmarked Monte Carlo damagemore » simulation and the RMF model to estimate the RBE values for primary carbon ions and secondary fragments. Depth-dependent energy spectra were generated with the Monte Carlo code FLUKA for clinically relevant initial carbon ion energies. The predicted trends in RBE were compared with the published experimental data. Biological optimization for carbon ions was implemented in a 3-dimensional research treatment planning tool. Results: We compared the RBE and RBE-weighted dose (RWD) distributions of different carbon ion treatment scenarios with and without nuclear fragments. The inclusion of fragments in the simulations led to smaller RBE predictions. A validation of RMF against measured cell survival data reported in published studies showed reasonable agreement. We calculated and optimized the RWD distributions on patient data and compared the RMF predictions with those from other biological models. The RBE values in an astrocytoma tumor ranged from 2.2 to 4.9 (mean 2.8) for a RWD of 3 Gy(RBE) assuming (α/β){sub X} = 2 Gy. Conclusions: These studies provide new information to quantify and assess uncertainties in the clinically relevant RBE values for carbon ion therapy based on biophysical mechanisms. We present results from the first biological optimization of carbon ion radiation therapy beams on patient data using a combined RMF and Monte Carlo damage simulation modeling approach. The presented method is advantageous for fast biological optimization.« less

Fast Biological Modeling for Voxel-based Heavy Ion Treatment Planning Using the Mechanistic Repair-Misrepair-Fixation Model and Nuclear Fragment Spectra.

PubMed

Kamp, Florian; Cabal, Gonzalo; Mairani, Andrea; Parodi, Katia; Wilkens, Jan J; Carlson, David J

2015-11-01

The physical and biological differences between heavy ions and photons have not been fully exploited and could improve treatment outcomes. In carbon ion therapy, treatment planning must account for physical properties, such as the absorbed dose and nuclear fragmentation, and for differences in the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of ions compared with photons. We combined the mechanistic repair-misrepair-fixation (RMF) model with Monte Carlo-generated fragmentation spectra for biological optimization of carbon ion treatment plans. Relative changes in double-strand break yields and radiosensitivity parameters with particle type and energy were determined using the independently benchmarked Monte Carlo damage simulation and the RMF model to estimate the RBE values for primary carbon ions and secondary fragments. Depth-dependent energy spectra were generated with the Monte Carlo code FLUKA for clinically relevant initial carbon ion energies. The predicted trends in RBE were compared with the published experimental data. Biological optimization for carbon ions was implemented in a 3-dimensional research treatment planning tool. We compared the RBE and RBE-weighted dose (RWD) distributions of different carbon ion treatment scenarios with and without nuclear fragments. The inclusion of fragments in the simulations led to smaller RBE predictions. A validation of RMF against measured cell survival data reported in published studies showed reasonable agreement. We calculated and optimized the RWD distributions on patient data and compared the RMF predictions with those from other biological models. The RBE values in an astrocytoma tumor ranged from 2.2 to 4.9 (mean 2.8) for a RWD of 3 Gy(RBE) assuming (α/β)X = 2 Gy. These studies provide new information to quantify and assess uncertainties in the clinically relevant RBE values for carbon ion therapy based on biophysical mechanisms. We present results from the first biological optimization of carbon ion radiation therapy beams on patient data using a combined RMF and Monte Carlo damage simulation modeling approach. The presented method is advantageous for fast biological optimization. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tree-Level Hydrodynamic Approach for Improved Stomatal Conductance Parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirfenderesgi, G.; Bohrer, G.; Matheny, A. M.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2014-12-01

The land-surface models do not mechanistically resolve hydrodynamic processes within the tree. The Finite-Elements Tree-Crown Hydrodynamics model version 2 (FETCH2) is based on the pervious FETCH model approach, but with finite difference numerics, and simplified single-beam conduit system. FETCH2 simulates water flow through the tree as a simplified system of porous media conduits. It explicitly resolves spatiotemporal hydraulic stresses throughout the tree's vertical extent that cannot be easily represented using other stomatal-conductance models. Empirical equations relate water potential at the stem to stomata conductance at leaves connected to the stem (through unresolved branches) at that height. While highly simplified, this approach bring some realism to the simulation of stomata conductance because the stomata can respond to stem water potential, rather than an assumed direct relationship with soil moisture, as is currently the case in almost all models. By enabling mechanistic simulation of hydrological traits, such as xylem conductivity, conductive area per DBH, vertical distribution of leaf area and maximal and minimal water content in the xylem, and their effect of the dynamics of water flow in the tree system, the FETCH2 modeling system enhanced our understanding of the role of hydraulic limitations on an experimental forest plot short-term water stresses that lead to tradeoffs between water and light availability for transpiring leaves in forest ecosystems. FETCH2 is particularly suitable to resolve the effects of structural differences between tree and species and size groups, and the consequences of differences in hydraulic strategies of different species. We leverage on a large dataset of sap flow from 60 trees of 4 species at our experimental plot at the University of Michigan Biological Station. Comparison of the sap flow and transpiration patterns in this site and an undisturbed control site shows significant difference in hydraulic strategies between species which affect their response to the disturbance. We used FETCH2 to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the total stand-level transpiration to the inter-specific differences in hydraulic strategies and used the results to reflect on the future trajectory of the forest, in terms of species composition and transpiration.

Simulation of specific conductance and chloride concentration in Abercorn Creek, Georgia, 2000-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, Paul; Roehl, Edwin A.; Davie, Steven R.

2011-01-01

The City of Savannah operates an industrial and domestic water-supply intake on Abercorn Creek approximately 2 miles from the confluence with the Savannah River upstream from the Interstate 95 bridge. Chloride concentrations are a major concern for the city because industrial customers require water with low chloride concentrations, and elevated chloride concentrations require additional water treatment in order to meet those needs. The proposed deepening of Savannah Harbor could increase chloride concentrations (the major ion in seawater) in the upper reaches of the lower Savannah River estuary, including Abercorn Creek. To address this concern, mechanistic and empirical modeling approaches were used to simulate chloride concentrations at the city's intake to evaluate potential effects from deepening the Savannah Harbor. The first approach modified the mechanistic Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model developed by Tetra Tech and used for evaluating proposed harbor deepening effects for the Environmental Impact Statement. Chloride concentrations were modeled directly with the EFDC model as a conservative tracer. This effort was done by Tetra Tech under a separate funding agreement with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and documented in a separate report. The second approach, described in this report, was to simulate chloride concentrations by developing empirical models from the available data using artificial neural network (ANN) and linear regression models. The empirical models used daily streamflow, specific conductance (field measurement for salinity), water temperature, and water color time series for inputs. Because there are only a few data points that describe the relation between high specific conductance values at the Savannah River at Interstate 95 and the water plant intake, there was a concern that these few data points would determine the extrapolation of the empirical model and potentially underestimate the effect of deepening the harbor on chloride concentrations at the intake. To accommodate these concerns, two ANN chloride models were developed for the intake. The first model (ANN M1e) used all the data. The second model (ANN M2e) only used data when specific conductance at Interstate 95 was less than 175 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius. Deleting the conductivity data greater than 175 microsiemens per centimeter removed the "plateau" effect observed in the data. The chloride simulations with the ANN M1 model have a low sensitivity to specific conductance (salinity) at Interstate 95, whereas the chloride simulations with the ANN M2 model have a high sensitivity to salinity at Interstate 95. The two modeling approaches (Tetra Tech's EFDC model and the one described in this report) were integrated into a decision support system (DSS) that combines the historical database, output from EFDC, ANN models, ANN model simulation controls, streaming graphics, and model output. The DSS was developed as a Microsoft ExcelTM/Visual Basic for Applications program, which allowed the DSS to be prototyped, easily modified, and distributed in a familiar spreadsheet format. The EFDC and ANN models were used to simulate various harbor deepening scenarios. To accommodate the geometry changes in the harbor, the ANN models used the EFDC model-simulated salinity changes for a historical condition as input. The DSS uses a graphical user interface and allows the user to interrogate the ANN models and EFDC output. Two scenarios were simulated using the Savannah Chloride Model DSS to demonstrate different input options. One scenario decreased winter streamflows to a constant streamflow for 45 days. Streamflows during the period January 1 to February 15 were set to a constant 3,600 cubic feet per second for the simulation period of October 1, 2006, to October 1, 2009. The decreased winter streamflow resulted in predictions of increased specific conductance by as much as 50 microsiemens per centimeter and chlorid

Mesoscale density variability in the mesosphere and thermosphere: Effects of vertical flow accelerations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Revelle, D. O.

1987-01-01

A mechanistic one dimensional numerical (iteration) model was developed which can be used to simulate specific types of mesoscale atmospheric density (and pressure) variability in the mesosphere and the thermosphere, namely those due to waves and those due to vertical flow accelerations. The model was developed with the idea that it could be used as a supplement to the TGCMs (thermospheric general circulation models) since such models have a very limited ability to model phenomena on small spatial scales. The simplest case to consider was the integration upward through a time averaged, height independent, horizontally divergent flow field. Vertical winds were initialized at the lower boundary using the Ekman pumping theory over flat terrain. The results of the computations are summarized.

In Vitro and In Silico Risk Assessment in Acquired Long QT Syndrome: The Devil Is in the Details.

PubMed

Lee, William; Windley, Monique J; Vandenberg, Jamie I; Hill, Adam P

2017-01-01

Acquired long QT syndrome, mostly as a result of drug block of the Kv11. 1 potassium channel in the heart, is characterized by delayed cardiac myocyte repolarization, prolongation of the T interval on the ECG, syncope and sudden cardiac death due to the polymorphic ventricular arrhythmia Torsade de Pointes (TdP). In recent years, efforts are underway through the Comprehensive in vitro proarrhythmic assay (CiPA) initiative, to develop better tests for this drug induced arrhythmia based in part on in silico simulations of pharmacological disruption of repolarization. However, drug binding to Kv11.1 is more complex than a simple binary molecular reaction, meaning simple steady state measures of potency are poor surrogates for risk. As a result, there is a plethora of mechanistic detail describing the drug/Kv11.1 interaction-such as drug binding kinetics, state preference, temperature dependence and trapping-that needs to be considered when developing in silico models for risk prediction. In addition to this, other factors, such as multichannel pharmacological profile and the nature of the ventricular cell models used in simulations also need to be considered in the search for the optimum in silico approach. Here we consider how much of mechanistic detail needs to be included for in silico models to accurately predict risk and further, how much of this detail can be retrieved from protocols that are practical to implement in high throughout screens as part of next generation of preclinical in silico drug screening approaches?

A Control Theory Model of Smoking

PubMed Central

Bobashev, Georgiy; Holloway, John; Solano, Eric; Gutkin, Boris

2017-01-01

We present a heuristic control theory model that describes smoking under restricted and unrestricted access to cigarettes. The model is based on the allostasis theory and uses a formal representation of a multiscale opponent process. The model simulates smoking behavior of an individual and produces both short-term (“loading up” after not smoking for a while) and long-term smoking patterns (e.g., gradual transition from a few cigarettes to one pack a day). By introducing a formal representation of withdrawal- and craving-like processes, the model produces gradual increases over time in withdrawal- and craving-like signals associated with abstinence and shows that after 3 months of abstinence, craving disappears. The model was programmed as a computer application allowing users to select simulation scenarios. The application links images of brain regions that are activated during the binge/intoxication, withdrawal, or craving with corresponding simulated states. The model was calibrated to represent smoking patterns described in peer-reviewed literature; however, it is generic enough to be adapted to other drugs, including cocaine and opioids. Although the model does not mechanistically describe specific neurobiological processes, it can be useful in prevention and treatment practices as an illustration of drug-using behaviors and expected dynamics of withdrawal and craving during abstinence. PMID:28868531

Identification of an urban fractured-rock aquifer dynamics using an evolutionary self-organizing modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Yoon-Seok; Rosen, Michael R.

2002-03-01

An urban fractured-rock aquifer system, where disposal of storm water is via 'soak holes' drilled directly into the top of fractured-rock basalt, has a highly dynamic nature where theories or knowledge to generate the model are still incomplete and insufficient. Therefore, formulating an accurate mechanistic model, usually based on first principles (physical and chemical laws, mass balance, and diffusion and transport, etc.), requires time- and money-consuming tasks. Instead of a human developing the mechanistic-based model, this paper presents an approach to automatic model evolution in genetic programming (GP) to model dynamic behaviour of groundwater level fluctuations affected by storm water infiltration. This GP evolves mathematical models automatically that have an understandable structure using function tree representation by methods of natural selection ('survival of the fittest') through genetic operators (reproduction, crossover, and mutation). The simulation results have shown that GP is not only capable of predicting the groundwater level fluctuation due to storm water infiltration but also provides insight into the dynamic behaviour of a partially known urban fractured-rock aquifer system by allowing knowledge extraction of the evolved models. Our results show that GP can work as a cost-effective modelling tool, enabling us to create prototype models quickly and inexpensively and assists us in developing accurate models in less time, even if we have limited experience and incomplete knowledge for an urban fractured-rock aquifer system affected by storm water infiltration.

Ocean Chlorophyll as a Precursor of ENSO: An Earth System Modeling Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jong-Yeon; Dunne, John P.; Stock, Charles A.

2018-02-01

Ocean chlorophyll concentration, a proxy for phytoplankton, is strongly influenced by internal ocean dynamics such as those associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observations show that ocean chlorophyll responses to ENSO generally lead sea surface temperature (SST) responses in the equatorial Pacific. A long-term global Earth system model simulation incorporating marine biogeochemical processes also exhibits a preceding chlorophyll response. In contrast to simulated SST anomalies, which significantly lag the wind-driven subsurface heat response to ENSO, chlorophyll anomalies respond rapidly. Iron was found to be the key factor connecting the simulated surface chlorophyll anomalies to the subsurface ocean response. Westerly wind bursts decrease central Pacific chlorophyll by reducing iron supply through wind-driven thermocline deepening but increase western Pacific chlorophyll by enhancing the influx of coastal iron from the maritime continent. Our results mechanistically support the potential for chlorophyll-based indices to inform seasonal ENSO forecasts beyond previously identified SST-based indices.

Experimental monitoring and numerical study of pesticide (carbofuran) transfer in an agricultural soil at a field site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hmimou, Abderrahim; Maslouhi, Abdellatif; Tamoh, Karim; Candela, Lucila

2014-09-01

We studied the transport of a pesticide at field scale, namely carbofuran molecule, which is known for its high mobility, especially in sandy soils with high hydraulic conductivity and low organic matter. To add to our knowledge of the future of this high-mobility molecule in this type of soils, we developed a mechanistic numerical model allowing the simulation of hydric and solute transfers (bromide and carbofuran) in the soil. We carried out this study in an agricultural plot in the region of Mnasra in Morocco. Confrontation of the measured and simulated values allowed the calibration of the parameters of hydric transfer and carbofuran. The developed model accurately reproduces the measured values. Despite a weak irrigation and precipitation regime, carbofuran was practically leached beyond the root zone. Prospective simulations show that under a more important irrigation regime, carbofuran reaches a 100-cm depth, whereas it does not exceed 60 cm under a deficit regime.

Pharmacodynamic analysis of eribulin safety in breast cancer patients using real-world post-marketing surveillance data.

PubMed

Kawamura, Takahisa; Kasai, Hidefumi; Fermanelli, Valentina; Takahashi, Toshiaki; Sakata, Yukinori; Matsuoka, Toshiyuki; Ishii, Mika; Tanigawara, Yusuke

2018-06-22

Post-marketing surveillance is useful to collect safety data in real-world clinical settings. In this study, we firstly applied the post-marketing real-world data on a mechanistic model analysis for neutropenic profiles of eribulin in patients with recurrent or metastatic breast cancer (RBC/MBC). Demographic and safety data were collected using an active surveillance method from eribulin-treated RBC/MBC patients. Changes in neutrophil counts over time were analyzed using a mechanistic pharmacodynamic model. Pathophysiological factors that may affect the severity of neutropenia were investigated and neutropenic patterns were simulated for different treatment schedules. Clinical and laboratory data were collected from 401 patients (5199 neutrophil count measurements) who had not received granulocyte colony stimulating factor and were eligible for pharmacodynamic analysis. The estimated mean parameters were: mean transit time = 104.5 h, neutrophil proliferation rate constant = 0.0377 h -1 , neutrophil elimination rate constant = 0.0295 h -1 , and linear coefficient of drug effect = 0.0413 mL/ng. Low serum albumin levels and low baseline neutrophil counts were associated with severe neutropenia. The probability of grade ≥3 neutropenia was predicted to be 69%, 27%, and 27% for patients on standard, biweekly, and triweekly treatment scenarios, respectively, based on virtual simulations using the developed pharmacodynamic model. In conclusion, this is the first application of post-marketing surveillance data to a model-based safety analysis. This analysis of safety data reflecting authentic clinical settings will provide useful information on the safe use and potential risk factors of eribulin. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Mechanistic studies on reduced exercise performance and cardiac deconditioning with simulated zero gravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tipton, Charles M.

1991-01-01

The primary purpose of this research is to study the physiological mechanisms associated with the exercise performance of rats subjected to conditions of simulated weightlessness. A secondary purpose is to study related physiological changes associated with other systems. To facilitate these goals, a rodent suspension model was developed (Overton-Tipton) and a VO2 max testing procedure was perfected. Three methodological developments occurred during this past year deserving of mention. The first was the refinement of the tail suspension model so that (1) the heat dissipation functions of the caudal artery can be better utilized, and (2) the blood flow distribution to the tail would have less external constriction. The second was the development on a one-leg weight bearing model for use in simulated weightlessness studies concerned with change in muscle mass, muscle enzyme activity, and hind limb blood flow. The chemical body composition of 30 rats was determined and used to develop a prediction equation for percent fat using underwater weighing procedures to measure carcass specific gravity and to calculate body density, body fat, and fat free mass.

Nonlinear modeling of wave-topography interactions, shear instabilities and shear induced wave breaking using vortex method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guha, Anirban

2017-11-01

Theoretical studies on linear shear instabilities as well as different kinds of wave interactions often use simple velocity and/or density profiles (e.g. constant, piecewise) for obtaining good qualitative and quantitative predictions of the initial disturbances. Moreover, such simple profiles provide a minimal model to obtain a mechanistic understanding of shear instabilities. Here we have extended this minimal paradigm into nonlinear domain using vortex method. Making use of unsteady Bernoulli's equation in presence of linear shear, and extending Birkhoff-Rott equation to multiple interfaces, we have numerically simulated the interaction between multiple fully nonlinear waves. This methodology is quite general, and has allowed us to simulate diverse problems that can be essentially reduced to the minimal system with interacting waves, e.g. spilling and plunging breakers, stratified shear instabilities (Holmboe, Taylor-Caulfield, stratified Rayleigh), jet flows, and even wave-topography interaction problem like Bragg resonance. We found that the minimal models capture key nonlinear features (e.g. wave breaking features like cusp formation and roll-ups) which are observed in experiments and/or extensive simulations with smooth, realistic profiles.

A case study on the in silico absorption simulations of levothyroxine sodium immediate-release tablets.

PubMed

Kocic, Ivana; Homsek, Irena; Dacevic, Mirjana; Grbic, Sandra; Parojcic, Jelena; Vucicevic, Katarina; Prostran, Milica; Miljkovic, Branislava

2012-04-01

The aim of this case study was to develop a drug-specific absorption model for levothyroxine (LT4) using mechanistic gastrointestinal simulation technology (GIST) implemented in the GastroPlus™ software package. The required input parameters were determined experimentally, in silico predicted and/or taken from the literature. The simulated plasma profile was similar and in a good agreement with the data observed in the in vivo bioequivalence study, indicating that the GIST model gave an accurate prediction of LT4 oral absorption. Additionally, plasma concentration-time profiles were simulated based on a set of experimental and virtual in vitro dissolution data in order to estimate the influence of different in vitro drug dissolution kinetics on the simulated plasma profiles and to identify biorelevant dissolution specification for LT4 immediate-release (IR) tablets. A set of experimental and virtual in vitro data was also used for correlation purposes. In vitro-in vivo correlation model based on the convolution approach was applied in order to assess the relationship between the in vitro and in vivo data. The obtained results suggest that dissolution specification of more than 85% LT4 dissolved in 60 min might be considered as biorelevant dissolution specification criteria for LT4 IR tablets. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Intraventricular flow alterations due to dyssynchronous wall motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, Audrey M.; Lai, Hong Kuan; Samaee, Milad; Santhanakrishnan, Arvind

2015-11-01

Roughly 30% of patients with systolic heart failure suffer from left ventricular dyssynchrony (LVD), in which mechanical discoordination of the ventricle walls leads to poor hemodynamics and suboptimal cardiac function. There is currently no clear mechanistic understanding of how abnormalities in septal-lateral (SL) wall motion affects left ventricle (LV) function, which is needed to improve the treatment of LVD using cardiac resynchronization therapy. We use an experimental flow phantom with an LV physical model to study mechanistic effects of SL wall motion delay on LV function. To simulate mechanical LVD, two rigid shafts were coupled to two segments (apical and mid sections) along the septal wall of the LV model. Flow through the LV model was driven using a piston pump, and stepper motors coupled to the above shafts were used to locally perturb the septal wall segments relative to the pump motion. 2D PIV was used to examine the intraventricular flow through the LV physical model. Alterations to SL delay results in a reduction in the kinetic energy (KE) of the flow field compared to synchronous SL motion. The effect of varying SL motion delay from 0% (synchronous) to 100% (out-of-phase) on KE and viscous dissipation will be presented. This research was supported by the Oklahoma Center for Advancement of Science and Technology (HR14-022).

Mechanistic modeling of biocorrosion caused by biofilms of sulfate reducing bacteria and acid producing bacteria.

PubMed

Xu, Dake; Li, Yingchao; Gu, Tingyue

2016-08-01

Biocorrosion is also known as microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC). Most anaerobic MIC cases can be classified into two major types. Type I MIC involves non-oxygen oxidants such as sulfate and nitrate that require biocatalysis for their reduction in the cytoplasm of microbes such as sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB) and nitrate reducing bacteria (NRB). This means that the extracellular electrons from the oxidation of metal such as iron must be transported across cell walls into the cytoplasm. Type II MIC involves oxidants such as protons that are secreted by microbes such as acid producing bacteria (APB). The biofilms in this case supply the locally high concentrations of oxidants that are corrosive without biocatalysis. This work describes a mechanistic model that is based on the biocatalytic cathodic sulfate reduction (BCSR) theory. The model utilizes charge transfer and mass transfer concepts to describe the SRB biocorrosion process. The model also includes a mechanism to describe APB attack based on the local acidic pH at a pit bottom. A pitting prediction software package has been created based on the mechanisms. It predicts long-term pitting rates and worst-case scenarios after calibration using SRB short-term pit depth data. Various parameters can be investigated through computer simulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of satellite estimates of rainfall distribution to simulate the potential for malaria transmission in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

2009-12-01

The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model developed to assess malaria risk in areas where the disease is water-limited. This model relies on precipitation inputs as its primary forcing. Until now, applications of the model have used ground-based precipitation observations. However, rain gauge networks in the areas most affected by malaria are often sparse. The increasing availability of satellite based rainfall estimates could greatly extend the range of the model. The minimum temporal resolution of precipitation data needed was determined to be one hour. The CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH ) distributed by NOAA fits this criteria, as it provides 30-minute estimates at 8km resolution. CMORPH data were compared to ground observations in four West African villages, and calibrated to reduce overestimation and false alarm biases. The calibrated CMORPH data were used to force HYDREMATS, resulting in outputs for mosquito populations, vectorial capacity and malaria transmission.

Bridging paradigms: hybrid mechanistic-discriminative predictive models.

PubMed

Doyle, Orla M; Tsaneva-Atansaova, Krasimira; Harte, James; Tiffin, Paul A; Tino, Peter; Díaz-Zuccarini, Vanessa

2013-03-01

Many disease processes are extremely complex and characterized by multiple stochastic processes interacting simultaneously. Current analytical approaches have included mechanistic models and machine learning (ML), which are often treated as orthogonal viewpoints. However, to facilitate truly personalized medicine, new perspectives may be required. This paper reviews the use of both mechanistic models and ML in healthcare as well as emerging hybrid methods, which are an exciting and promising approach for biologically based, yet data-driven advanced intelligent systems.

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kilbourne, Hali; Klockmann, Marlene; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Ortega, Pablo; Romanou, Anastasia; Srokosz, Meric; Szuts, Zoltan; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Hall, Ian; Heimbach, Patrick;

Multiscale mechanistic modeling in pharmaceutical research and development.

PubMed

Kuepfer, Lars; Lippert, Jörg; Eissing, Thomas

2012-01-01

Discontinuation of drug development projects due to lack of efficacy or adverse events is one of the main cost drivers in pharmaceutical research and development (R&D). Investments have to be written-off and contribute to the total costs of a successful drug candidate receiving marketing authorization and allowing return on invest. A vital risk for pharmaceutical innovator companies is late stage clinical failure since costs for individual clinical trials may exceed the one billion Euro threshold. To guide investment decisions and to safeguard maximum medical benefit and safety for patients recruited in clinical trials, it is therefore essential to understand the clinical consequences of all information and data generated. The complexity of the physiological and pathophysiological processes and the sheer amount of information available overcharge the mental capacity of any human being and prevent a prediction of the success in clinical development. A rigorous integration of knowledge, assumption, and experimental data into computational models promises a significant improvement of the rationalization of decision making in pharmaceutical industry. We here give an overview of the current status of modeling and simulation in pharmaceutical R&D and outline the perspectives of more recent developments in mechanistic modeling. Specific modeling approaches for different biological scales ranging from intracellular processes to whole organism physiology are introduced and an example for integrative multiscale modeling of therapeutic efficiency in clinical oncology trials is showcased.

A global scale mechanistic model of photosynthetic capacity (LUNA V1.0)

DOE PAGES

Ali, Ashehad A.; Xu, Chonggang; Rogers, Alistair; ...

2016-02-12

Although plant photosynthetic capacity as determined by the maximum carboxylation rate (i.e., V c,max25) and the maximum electron transport rate (i.e., J max25) at a reference temperature (generally 25 °C) is known to vary considerably in space and time in response to environmental conditions, it is typically parameterized in Earth system models (ESMs) with tabulated values associated with plant functional types. In this study, we have developed a mechanistic model of leaf utilization of nitrogen for assimilation (LUNA) to predict photosynthetic capacity at the global scale under different environmental conditions. We adopt an optimality hypothesis to nitrogen allocation among lightmore » capture, electron transport, carboxylation and respiration. The LUNA model is able to reasonably capture the measured spatial and temporal patterns of photosynthetic capacity as it explains ~55 % of the global variation in observed values of V c,max25 and ~65 % of the variation in the observed values of J max25. Model simulations with LUNA under current and future climate conditions demonstrate that modeled values of V c,max25 are most affected in high-latitude regions under future climates. In conclusion, ESMs that relate the values of V c,max25 or J max25 to plant functional types only are likely to substantially overestimate future global photosynthesis.« less

Computational modeling of neurostimulation in brain diseases.

PubMed

Wang, Yujiang; Hutchings, Frances; Kaiser, Marcus

2015-01-01

Neurostimulation as a therapeutic tool has been developed and used for a range of different diseases such as Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, and migraine. However, it is not known why the efficacy of the stimulation varies dramatically across patients or why some patients suffer from severe side effects. This is largely due to the lack of mechanistic understanding of neurostimulation. Hence, theoretical computational approaches to address this issue are in demand. This chapter provides a review of mechanistic computational modeling of brain stimulation. In particular, we will focus on brain diseases, where mechanistic models (e.g., neural population models or detailed neuronal models) have been used to bridge the gap between cellular-level processes of affected neural circuits and the symptomatic expression of disease dynamics. We show how such models have been, and can be, used to investigate the effects of neurostimulation in the diseased brain. We argue that these models are crucial for the mechanistic understanding of the effect of stimulation, allowing for a rational design of stimulation protocols. Based on mechanistic models, we argue that the development of closed-loop stimulation is essential in order to avoid inference with healthy ongoing brain activity. Furthermore, patient-specific data, such as neuroanatomic information and connectivity profiles obtainable from neuroimaging, can be readily incorporated to address the clinical issue of variability in efficacy between subjects. We conclude that mechanistic computational models can and should play a key role in the rational design of effective, fully integrated, patient-specific therapeutic brain stimulation. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative model of price diffusion and market friction based on trading as a mechanistic random process.

PubMed

Daniels, Marcus G; Farmer, J Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

2003-03-14

We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

Quantitative Model of Price Diffusion and Market Friction Based on Trading as a Mechanistic Random Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, Marcus G.; Farmer, J. Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

2003-03-01

We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

MECHANISTIC DOSIMETRY MODELS OF NANOMATERIAL DEPOSITION IN THE RESPIRATORY TRACT

EPA Science Inventory

Accurate health risk assessments of inhalation exposure to nanomaterials will require dosimetry models that account for interspecies differences in dose delivered to the respiratory tract. Mechanistic models offer the advantage to interspecies extrapolation that physicochemica...

Mechanistic modelling of fluidized bed drying processes of wet porous granules: a review.

PubMed

Mortier, Séverine Thérèse F C; De Beer, Thomas; Gernaey, Krist V; Remon, Jean Paul; Vervaet, Chris; Nopens, Ingmar

2011-10-01

Fluidized bed dryers are frequently used in industrial applications and also in the pharmaceutical industry. The general incentives to develop mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes are listed, and our vision on how this can particularly be done for fluidized bed drying processes of wet granules is given. This review provides a basis for future mechanistic model development for the drying process of wet granules in pharmaceutical processes. It is intended for a broad audience with a varying level of knowledge on pharmaceutical processes and mathematical modelling. Mathematical models are powerful tools to gain process insight and eventually develop well-controlled processes. The level of detail embedded in such a model depends on the goal of the model. Several models have therefore been proposed in the literature and are reviewed here. The drying behaviour of one single granule, a porous particle, can be described using the continuum approach, the pore network modelling method and the shrinkage of the diameter of the wet core approach. As several granules dry at a drying rate dependent on the gas temperature, gas velocity, porosity, etc., the moisture content of a batch of granules will reside in a certain interval. Population Balance Model (ling) (PBM) offers a tool to describe the distribution of particle properties which can be of interest for the application. PBM formulation and solution methods are therefore reviewed. In a fluidized bed, the granules show a fluidization pattern depending on the geometry of the gas inlet, the gas velocity, characteristics of the particles, the dryer design, etc. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) allows to model this behaviour. Moreover, turbulence can be modelled using several approaches: Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes Equations (RANS) or Large Eddy Simulation (LES). Another important aspect of CFD is the choice between the Eulerian-Lagrangian and the Eulerian-Eulerian approach. Finally, the PBM and CFD frameworks can be integrated, to describe the evolution of the moisture content of granules during fluidized bed drying. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Combining correlative and mechanistic habitat suitability models to improve ecological compensation.

PubMed

Meineri, Eric; Deville, Anne-Sophie; Grémillet, David; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Béchet, Arnaud

2015-02-01

Only a few studies have shown positive impacts of ecological compensation on species dynamics affected by human activities. We argue that this is due to inappropriate methods used to forecast required compensation in environmental impact assessments. These assessments are mostly descriptive and only valid at limited spatial and temporal scales. However, habitat suitability models developed to predict the impacts of environmental changes on potential species' distributions should provide rigorous science-based tools for compensation planning. Here we describe the two main classes of predictive models: correlative models and individual-based mechanistic models. We show how these models can be used alone or synoptically to improve compensation planning. While correlative models are easier to implement, they tend to ignore underlying ecological processes and lack accuracy. On the contrary, individual-based mechanistic models can integrate biological interactions, dispersal ability and adaptation. Moreover, among mechanistic models, those considering animal energy balance are particularly efficient at predicting the impact of foraging habitat loss. However, mechanistic models require more field data compared to correlative models. Hence we present two approaches which combine both methods for compensation planning, especially in relation to the spatial scale considered. We show how the availability of biological databases and software enabling fast and accurate population projections could be advantageously used to assess ecological compensation requirement efficiently in environmental impact assessments. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

WE-DE-202-00: Connecting Radiation Physics with Computational Biology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

Radiation therapy for the treatment of cancer has been established as a highly precise and effective way to eradicate a localized region of diseased tissue. To achieve further significant gains in the therapeutic ratio, we need to move towards biologically optimized treatment planning. To achieve this goal, we need to understand how the radiation-type dependent patterns of induced energy depositions within the cell (physics) connect via molecular, cellular and tissue reactions to treatment outcome such as tumor control and undesirable effects on normal tissue. Several computational biology approaches have been developed connecting physics to biology. Monte Carlo simulations are themore » most accurate method to calculate physical dose distributions at the nanometer scale, however simulations at the DNA scale are slow and repair processes are generally not simulated. Alternative models that rely on the random formation of individual DNA lesions within one or two turns of the DNA have been shown to reproduce the clusters of DNA lesions, including single strand breaks (SSBs), double strand breaks (DSBs) without the need for detailed track structure simulations. Efficient computational simulations of initial DNA damage induction facilitate computational modeling of DNA repair and other molecular and cellular processes. Mechanistic, multiscale models provide a useful conceptual framework to test biological hypotheses and help connect fundamental information about track structure and dosimetry at the sub-cellular level to dose-response effects on larger scales. In this symposium we will learn about the current state of the art of computational approaches estimating radiation damage at the cellular and sub-cellular scale. How can understanding the physics interactions at the DNA level be used to predict biological outcome? We will discuss if and how such calculations are relevant to advance our understanding of radiation damage and its repair, or, if the underlying biological processes are too complex for a mechanistic approach. Can computer simulations be used to guide future biological research? We will debate the feasibility of explaining biology from a physicists’ perspective. Learning Objectives: Understand the potential applications and limitations of computational methods for dose-response modeling at the molecular, cellular and tissue levels Learn about mechanism of action underlying the induction, repair and biological processing of damage to DNA and other constituents Understand how effects and processes at one biological scale impact on biological processes and outcomes on other scales J. Schuemann, NCI/NIH grantsS. McMahon, Funding: European Commission FP7 (grant EC FP7 MC-IOF-623630)« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McMahon, S.

Radiation therapy for the treatment of cancer has been established as a highly precise and effective way to eradicate a localized region of diseased tissue. To achieve further significant gains in the therapeutic ratio, we need to move towards biologically optimized treatment planning. To achieve this goal, we need to understand how the radiation-type dependent patterns of induced energy depositions within the cell (physics) connect via molecular, cellular and tissue reactions to treatment outcome such as tumor control and undesirable effects on normal tissue. Several computational biology approaches have been developed connecting physics to biology. Monte Carlo simulations are themore » most accurate method to calculate physical dose distributions at the nanometer scale, however simulations at the DNA scale are slow and repair processes are generally not simulated. Alternative models that rely on the random formation of individual DNA lesions within one or two turns of the DNA have been shown to reproduce the clusters of DNA lesions, including single strand breaks (SSBs), double strand breaks (DSBs) without the need for detailed track structure simulations. Efficient computational simulations of initial DNA damage induction facilitate computational modeling of DNA repair and other molecular and cellular processes. Mechanistic, multiscale models provide a useful conceptual framework to test biological hypotheses and help connect fundamental information about track structure and dosimetry at the sub-cellular level to dose-response effects on larger scales. In this symposium we will learn about the current state of the art of computational approaches estimating radiation damage at the cellular and sub-cellular scale. How can understanding the physics interactions at the DNA level be used to predict biological outcome? We will discuss if and how such calculations are relevant to advance our understanding of radiation damage and its repair, or, if the underlying biological processes are too complex for a mechanistic approach. Can computer simulations be used to guide future biological research? We will debate the feasibility of explaining biology from a physicists’ perspective. Learning Objectives: Understand the potential applications and limitations of computational methods for dose-response modeling at the molecular, cellular and tissue levels Learn about mechanism of action underlying the induction, repair and biological processing of damage to DNA and other constituents Understand how effects and processes at one biological scale impact on biological processes and outcomes on other scales J. Schuemann, NCI/NIH grantsS. McMahon, Funding: European Commission FP7 (grant EC FP7 MC-IOF-623630)« less

Virtual Systems Pharmacology (ViSP) software for simulation from mechanistic systems-level models.

PubMed

Ermakov, Sergey; Forster, Peter; Pagidala, Jyotsna; Miladinov, Marko; Wang, Albert; Baillie, Rebecca; Bartlett, Derek; Reed, Mike; Leil, Tarek A

2014-01-01

Multiple software programs are available for designing and running large scale system-level pharmacology models used in the drug development process. Depending on the problem, scientists may be forced to use several modeling tools that could increase model development time, IT costs and so on. Therefore, it is desirable to have a single platform that allows setting up and running large-scale simulations for the models that have been developed with different modeling tools. We developed a workflow and a software platform in which a model file is compiled into a self-contained executable that is no longer dependent on the software that was used to create the model. At the same time the full model specifics is preserved by presenting all model parameters as input parameters for the executable. This platform was implemented as a model agnostic, therapeutic area agnostic and web-based application with a database back-end that can be used to configure, manage and execute large-scale simulations for multiple models by multiple users. The user interface is designed to be easily configurable to reflect the specifics of the model and the user's particular needs and the back-end database has been implemented to store and manage all aspects of the systems, such as Models, Virtual Patients, User Interface Settings, and Results. The platform can be adapted and deployed on an existing cluster or cloud computing environment. Its use was demonstrated with a metabolic disease systems pharmacology model that simulates the effects of two antidiabetic drugs, metformin and fasiglifam, in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.

Virtual Systems Pharmacology (ViSP) software for simulation from mechanistic systems-level models

PubMed Central

Ermakov, Sergey; Forster, Peter; Pagidala, Jyotsna; Miladinov, Marko; Wang, Albert; Baillie, Rebecca; Bartlett, Derek; Reed, Mike; Leil, Tarek A.

2014-01-01

Multiple software programs are available for designing and running large scale system-level pharmacology models used in the drug development process. Depending on the problem, scientists may be forced to use several modeling tools that could increase model development time, IT costs and so on. Therefore, it is desirable to have a single platform that allows setting up and running large-scale simulations for the models that have been developed with different modeling tools. We developed a workflow and a software platform in which a model file is compiled into a self-contained executable that is no longer dependent on the software that was used to create the model. At the same time the full model specifics is preserved by presenting all model parameters as input parameters for the executable. This platform was implemented as a model agnostic, therapeutic area agnostic and web-based application with a database back-end that can be used to configure, manage and execute large-scale simulations for multiple models by multiple users. The user interface is designed to be easily configurable to reflect the specifics of the model and the user's particular needs and the back-end database has been implemented to store and manage all aspects of the systems, such as Models, Virtual Patients, User Interface Settings, and Results. The platform can be adapted and deployed on an existing cluster or cloud computing environment. Its use was demonstrated with a metabolic disease systems pharmacology model that simulates the effects of two antidiabetic drugs, metformin and fasiglifam, in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients. PMID:25374542

Encapsulating model complexity and landscape-scale analyses of state-and-transition simulation models: an application of ecoinformatics and juniper encroachment in sagebrush steppe ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, Michael

2015-01-01

State-and-transition simulation modeling relies on knowledge of vegetation composition and structure (states) that describe community conditions, mechanistic feedbacks such as fire that can affect vegetation establishment, and ecological processes that drive community conditions as well as the transitions between these states. However, as the need for modeling larger and more complex landscapes increase, a more advanced awareness of computing resources becomes essential. The objectives of this study include identifying challenges of executing state-and-transition simulation models, identifying common bottlenecks of computing resources, developing a workflow and software that enable parallel processing of Monte Carlo simulations, and identifying the advantages and disadvantages of different computing resources. To address these objectives, this study used the ApexRMS® SyncroSim software and embarrassingly parallel tasks of Monte Carlo simulations on a single multicore computer and on distributed computing systems. The results demonstrated that state-and-transition simulation models scale best in distributed computing environments, such as high-throughput and high-performance computing, because these environments disseminate the workloads across many compute nodes, thereby supporting analysis of larger landscapes, higher spatial resolution vegetation products, and more complex models. Using a case study and five different computing environments, the top result (high-throughput computing versus serial computations) indicated an approximate 96.6% decrease of computing time. With a single, multicore compute node (bottom result), the computing time indicated an 81.8% decrease relative to using serial computations. These results provide insight into the tradeoffs of using different computing resources when research necessitates advanced integration of ecoinformatics incorporating large and complicated data inputs and models. - See more at: http://aimspress.com/aimses/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=Environ2015030&flag=1#sthash.p1XKDtF8.dpuf

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bandyopadhyay, S.; Chowdhury, R.; Biswas, G.K.

A mathematical model based on the mechanistic approach to the reaction kinetics of pyrolysis reactions and the realistic analysis of the interaction between simultaneous heat and mass transfer along with the chemical reaction has been developed for the design of smoothly running pyrolyzers. The model of a fixed-bed pyrolysis reactor has been proposed on the basis of the dimensionless parameters with respect to time and radial position. The variation of physical parameters like bed voidage, heat capacity, diffusivity, density, thermal conductivity, etc., on temperature and conversion has been taken into account. A deactivation model has also been incorporated to explainmore » the behavior of pyrolysis reactions at temperatures above 673 K. The simulated results of the model have been explained by comparing them with the experimental results.« less

MECHANISTIC-BASED DISINFECTION AND DISINFECTION BYPRODUCT MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

We propose developing a mechanistic-based numerical model for chlorine decay and regulated DBP (THM and HAA) formation derived from (free) chlorination; the model framework will allow future modifications for other DBPs and chloramination. Predicted chlorine residual and DBP r...

Systems, methods and computer-readable media for modeling cell performance fade of rechargeable electrochemical devices

DOEpatents

Gering, Kevin L

2013-08-27

A system includes an electrochemical cell, monitoring hardware, and a computing system. The monitoring hardware periodically samples performance characteristics of the electrochemical cell. The computing system determines cell information from the performance characteristics of the electrochemical cell. The computing system also develops a mechanistic level model of the electrochemical cell to determine performance fade characteristics of the electrochemical cell and analyzing the mechanistic level model to estimate performance fade characteristics over aging of a similar electrochemical cell. The mechanistic level model uses first constant-current pulses applied to the electrochemical cell at a first aging period and at three or more current values bracketing a first exchange current density. The mechanistic level model also is based on second constant-current pulses applied to the electrochemical cell at a second aging period and at three or more current values bracketing the second exchange current density.

The application of neural network model to the simulation nitrous oxide emission in the hydro-fluctuation belt of Three Gorges Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Lanlan

2017-04-01

Nitrous oxide is much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. However, the estimation of N2O flux is usually clouded with uncertainty, mainly due to high spatial and temporal variations. This hampers the development of general mechanistic models for N2O emission as well, as most previously developed models were empirical or exhibited low predictability with numerous assumptions. In this study, we tested General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) as an alternative to classic empirical models for simulating N2O emission in riparian zones of Reservoirs. GRNN and nonlinear regression (NLR) were applied to estimate the N2O flux of 1-year observations in riparian zones of Three Gorge Reservoir. NLR resulted in lower prediction power and higher residuals compared to GRNN. Although nonlinear regression model estimated similar average values of N2O, it could not capture the fluctuation patterns accurately. In contrast, GRNN model achieved a fairly high predictability, with an R2 of 0.59 for model validation, 0.77 for model calibration (training), and a low root mean square error (RMSE), indicating a high capacity to simulate the dynamics of N2O flux. According to a sensitivity analysis of the GRNN, nonlinear relationships between input variables and N2O flux were well explained. Our results suggest that the GRNN developed in this study has a greater performance in simulating variations in N2O flux than nonlinear regressions.

A comprehensive mechanistic model for upward two-phase flow in wellbores

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sylvester, N.D.; Sarica, C.; Shoham, O.

1994-05-01

A comprehensive model is formulated to predict the flow behavior for upward two-phase flow. This model is composed of a model for flow-pattern prediction and a set of independent mechanistic models for predicting such flow characteristics as holdup and pressure drop in bubble, slug, and annular flow. The comprehensive model is evaluated by using a well data bank made up of 1,712 well cases covering a wide variety of field data. Model performance is also compared with six commonly used empirical correlations and the Hasan-Kabir mechanistic model. Overall model performance is in good agreement with the data. In comparison withmore » other methods, the comprehensive model performed the best.« less

Multi-scale predictions of coniferous forest mortality in the northern hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, N. G.

2015-12-01

Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our incomplete understanding of the fundamental physiological thresholds of vegetation mortality during drought limits our ability to accurately simulate future vegetation distributions and associated climate feedbacks. Here we integrate experimental evidence with models to show potential widespread loss of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET; ~ conifers) within the Southwest USA by 2100; with rising temperature being the primary cause of mortality. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ypd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, stomatal and hydraulic conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. Empirical and mechanistic models accurately predicted NET Ypd, and 91% of predictions (10/11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the 21st century due to temperature rise. Completely independent global models predicted >50% loss of northern hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the findings for Southwest USA. The global models disagreed with the ecosystem process models in regards to future mortality in Southwest USA, however, highlighting the potential underestimates of future NET mortality as simulated by the global models and signifying the importance of improving regional predictions. Taken together, these results from the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict global-scale conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

Analysis of Developing Gas/liquid Two-Phase Flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elena A. Tselishcheva; Michael Z. Podowski; Steven P. Antal

The goal of this work is to develop a mechanistically based CFD model that can be used to simulate process equipment operating in the churn-turbulent regime. The simulations were performed using a state-of-the-art computational multiphase fluid dynamics code, NPHASE–CMFD [Antal et al,2000]. A complete four-field model, including the continuous liquid field and three dispersed gas fields representing bubbles of different sizes, was first carefully tested for numerical convergence and accuracy, and then used to reproduce the experimental results from the TOPFLOW test facility at Forschungszentrum Dresden-Rossendorf e.V. Institute of Safety Research [Prasser et al,2007]. Good progress has been made inmore » simulating the churn-turbulent flows and comparison the NPHASE-CMFD simulations with TOPFLOW experimental data. The main objective of the paper is to demonstrate capability to predict the evolution of adiabatic churn-turbulent gas/liquid flows. The proposed modelling concept uses transport equations for the continuous liquid field and for dispersed bubble fields [Tselishcheva et al, 2009]. Along with closure laws based on interaction between bubbles and continuous liquid, the effect of height on air density has been included in the model. The figure below presents the developing flow results of the study, namely total void fraction at different axial locations along the TOPFLOW facility test section. The complete model description, as well as results of simulations and validation will be presented in the full paper.« less

A Computational Systems Biology Software Platform for Multiscale Modeling and Simulation: Integrating Whole-Body Physiology, Disease Biology, and Molecular Reaction Networks

PubMed Central

Eissing, Thomas; Kuepfer, Lars; Becker, Corina; Block, Michael; Coboeken, Katrin; Gaub, Thomas; Goerlitz, Linus; Jaeger, Juergen; Loosen, Roland; Ludewig, Bernd; Meyer, Michaela; Niederalt, Christoph; Sevestre, Michael; Siegmund, Hans-Ulrich; Solodenko, Juri; Thelen, Kirstin; Telle, Ulrich; Weiss, Wolfgang; Wendl, Thomas; Willmann, Stefan; Lippert, Joerg

2011-01-01

Today, in silico studies and trial simulations already complement experimental approaches in pharmaceutical R&D and have become indispensable tools for decision making and communication with regulatory agencies. While biology is multiscale by nature, project work, and software tools usually focus on isolated aspects of drug action, such as pharmacokinetics at the organism scale or pharmacodynamic interaction on the molecular level. We present a modeling and simulation software platform consisting of PK-Sim® and MoBi® capable of building and simulating models that integrate across biological scales. A prototypical multiscale model for the progression of a pancreatic tumor and its response to pharmacotherapy is constructed and virtual patients are treated with a prodrug activated by hepatic metabolization. Tumor growth is driven by signal transduction leading to cell cycle transition and proliferation. Free tumor concentrations of the active metabolite inhibit Raf kinase in the signaling cascade and thereby cell cycle progression. In a virtual clinical study, the individual therapeutic outcome of the chemotherapeutic intervention is simulated for a large population with heterogeneous genomic background. Thereby, the platform allows efficient model building and integration of biological knowledge and prior data from all biological scales. Experimental in vitro model systems can be linked with observations in animal experiments and clinical trials. The interplay between patients, diseases, and drugs and topics with high clinical relevance such as the role of pharmacogenomics, drug–drug, or drug–metabolite interactions can be addressed using this mechanistic, insight driven multiscale modeling approach. PMID:21483730

Refractory Sampling Links Efficiency and Costs of Sensory Encoding to Stimulus Statistics

PubMed Central

Song, Zhuoyi

2014-01-01

Sensory neurons integrate information about the world, adapting their sampling to its changes. However, little is understood mechanistically how this primary encoding process, which ultimately limits perception, depends upon stimulus statistics. Here, we analyze this open question systematically by using intracellular recordings from fly (Drosophila melanogaster and Coenosia attenuata) photoreceptors and corresponding stochastic simulations from biophysically realistic photoreceptor models. Recordings show that photoreceptors can sample more information from naturalistic light intensity time series (NS) than from Gaussian white-noise (GWN), shuffled-NS or Gaussian-1/f stimuli; integrating larger responses with higher signal-to-noise ratio and encoding efficiency to large bursty contrast changes. Simulations reveal how a photoreceptor's information capture depends critically upon the stochastic refractoriness of its 30,000 sampling units (microvilli). In daylight, refractoriness sacrifices sensitivity to enhance intensity changes in neural image representations, with more and faster microvilli improving encoding. But for GWN and other stimuli, which lack longer dark contrasts of real-world intensity changes that reduce microvilli refractoriness, these performance gains are submaximal and energetically costly. These results provide mechanistic reasons why information sampling is more efficient for natural/naturalistic stimulation and novel insight into the operation, design, and evolution of signaling and code in sensory neurons. PMID:24849356

Radiation track, DNA damage and response—a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikjoo, H.; Emfietzoglou, D.; Liamsuwan, T.; Taleei, R.; Liljequist, D.; Uehara, S.

2016-11-01

The purpose of this paper has been to review the current status and progress of the field of radiation biophysics, and draw attention to the fact that physics, in general, and radiation physics in particular, with the aid of mathematical modeling, can help elucidate biological mechanisms and cancer therapies. We hypothesize that concepts of condensed-matter physics along with the new genomic knowledge and technologies and mechanistic mathematical modeling in conjunction with advances in experimental DNA (Deoxyrinonucleic acid molecule) repair and cell signaling have now provided us with unprecedented opportunities in radiation biophysics to address problems in targeted cancer therapy, and genetic risk estimation in humans. Obviously, one is not dealing with ‘low-hanging fruit’, but it will be a major scientific achievement if it becomes possible to state, in another decade or so, that we can link mechanistically the stages between the initial radiation-induced DNA damage; in particular, at doses of radiation less than 2 Gy and with structural changes in genomic DNA as a precursor to cell inactivation and/or mutations leading to genetic diseases. The paper presents recent development in the physics of radiation track structure contained in the computer code system KURBUC, in particular for low-energy electrons in the condensed phase of water for which we provide a comprehensive discussion of the dielectric response function approach. The state-of-the-art in the simulation of proton and carbon ion tracks in the Bragg peak region is also presented. The paper presents a critical discussion of the models used for elastic scattering, and the validity of the trajectory approach in low-electron transport. Brief discussions of mechanistic and quantitative aspects of microdosimetry, DNA damage and DNA repair are also included as developed by the authors’ work.

Activation pathway of Src kinase reveals intermediate states as novel targets for drug design

PubMed Central

Shukla, Diwakar; Meng, Yilin; Roux, Benoît; Pande, Vijay S.

2014-01-01

Unregulated activation of Src kinases leads to aberrant signaling, uncontrolled growth, and differentiation of cancerous cells. Reaching a complete mechanistic understanding of large scale conformational transformations underlying the activation of kinases could greatly help in the development of therapeutic drugs for the treatment of these pathologies. In principle, the nature of conformational transition could be modeled in silico via atomistic molecular dynamics simulations, although this is very challenging due to the long activation timescales. Here, we employ a computational paradigm that couples transition pathway techniques and Markov state model-based massively distributed simulations for mapping the conformational landscape of c-src tyrosine kinase. The computations provide the thermodynamics and kinetics of kinase activation for the first time, and help identify key structural intermediates. Furthermore, the presence of a novel allosteric site in an intermediate state of c-src that could be potentially utilized for drug design is predicted. PMID:24584478

A Mechanistic Model for Cooperative Behavior of Co-transcribing RNA Polymerases

PubMed Central

Heberling, Tamra; Davis, Lisa; Gedeon, Jakub; Morgan, Charles; Gedeon, Tomáš

2016-01-01

In fast-transcribing prokaryotic genes, such as an rrn gene in Escherichia coli, many RNA polymerases (RNAPs) transcribe the DNA simultaneously. Active elongation of RNAPs is often interrupted by pauses, which has been observed to cause RNAP traffic jams; yet some studies indicate that elongation seems to be faster in the presence of multiple RNAPs than elongation by a single RNAP. We propose that an interaction between RNAPs via the torque produced by RNAP motion on helically twisted DNA can explain this apparent paradox. We have incorporated the torque mechanism into a stochastic model and simulated transcription both with and without torque. Simulation results illustrate that the torque causes shorter pause durations and fewer collisions between polymerases. Our results suggest that the torsional interaction of RNAPs is an important mechanism in maintaining fast transcription times, and that transcription should be viewed as a cooperative group effort by multiple polymerases. PMID:27517607

Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics

PubMed Central

Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Moghadas, Seyed M.

2016-01-01

Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other mechanisms. Here, we introduce the generalized growth model to characterize the early growth profile of outbreaks and estimate the effective reproduction number, with no need for explicit assumptions about the shape of epidemic growth. We demonstrate this phenomenological approach using analytical results and simulations from mechanistic models, and provide validation against a range of empirical disease datasets. Our results suggest that subexponential growth in the early phase of an epidemic is the rule rather the exception. Mechanistic simulations show that slight modifications to the classical susceptible–infectious–removed model result in subexponential growth, and in turn a rapid decline in the reproduction number within three to five disease generations. For empirical outbreaks, the generalized-growth model consistently outperforms the exponential model for a variety of directly and indirectly transmitted diseases datasets (pandemic influenza, measles, smallpox, bubonic plague, cholera, foot-and-mouth disease, HIV/AIDS and Ebola) with model estimates supporting subexponential growth dynamics. The rapid decline in effective reproduction number predicted by analytical results and observed in real and synthetic datasets within three to five disease generations contrasts with the expectation of invariant reproduction number in epidemics obeying exponential growth. The generalized-growth concept also provides us a compelling argument for the unexpected extinction of certain emerging disease outbreaks during the early ascending phase. Overall, our approach promotes a more reliable and data-driven characterization of the early epidemic phase, which is important for accurate estimation of the reproduction number and prediction of disease impact. PMID:27707909

Influence of Organic Matter - Mineral Interfacial Reactions on Metal(loid) Speciation and Bioaccessibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chorover, J.; Kong, S.; Root, R. A.; Thomas, A.

2015-12-01

Bioaccessibility of contaminant metals in geomedia is often measured on the basis of kinetic release to solution during in vitro reaction with biofluid simulants. We postulate that development of a predictive-mechanistic understanding of bioaccessibility requires knowledge of metal(loid) molecular speciation upon sample introduction, as well as its change over the course of the in vitro reaction. Our results - including data from batch, column, mesocosm and field studies pertaining to arsenic, lead, and zinc contaminated materials - indicate the strong influence of organic matter and associated biological activity on metal(loid) speciation in mine tailings and related model systems. Furthermore, presence/absence of organic matter during bioassays affects the kinetics of metal(loid) release into biofluid simulants through multiple mechanisms.

Addressing numerical challenges in introducing a reactive transport code into a land surface model: A biogeochemical modeling proof-of-concept with CLM-PFLOTRAN 1.0: Modeling Archive

DOE Data Explorer

Tang, G.; Andre, B.; Hoffman, F. M.; Painter, S. L.; Thornton, P. E.; Yuan, F.; Bisht, G.; Hammond, G. E.; Lichtner, P. C.; Kumar, J.; Mills, R. T.; Xu, X.

2016-04-19

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic discussion paper under review and available at doi:10.5194/gmd-9-927-2016. The purpose is to document the simulations to allow verification, reproducibility, and follow-up studies. This dataset contains shell scripts to create the CLM-PFLOTRAN cases, specific input files for PFLOTRAN and CLM, outputs, and python scripts to make the figures using the outputs in the publication. Through these results, we demonstrate that CLM-PFLOTRAN can approximately reproduce CLM results in selected cases for the Arctic, temperate and tropic sites. In addition, the new framework facilitates mechanistic representations of soil biogeochemistry processes in the land surface model.

Target-mediated drug disposition model and its approximations for antibody-drug conjugates.

PubMed

Gibiansky, Leonid; Gibiansky, Ekaterina

2014-02-01

Antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) is a complex structure composed of an antibody linked to several molecules of a biologically active cytotoxic drug. The number of ADC compounds in clinical development now exceeds 30, with two of them already on the market. However, there is no rigorous mechanistic model that describes pharmacokinetic (PK) properties of these compounds. PK modeling of ADCs is even more complicated than that of other biologics as the model should describe distribution, binding, and elimination of antibodies with different toxin load, and also the deconjugation process and PK of the released toxin. This work extends the target-mediated drug disposition (TMDD) model to describe ADCs, derives the rapid binding (quasi-equilibrium), quasi-steady-state, and Michaelis-Menten approximations of the TMDD model as applied to ADCs, derives the TMDD model and its approximations for ADCs with load-independent properties, and discusses further simplifications of the system under various assumptions. The developed models are shown to describe data simulated from the available clinical population PK models of trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1), one of the two currently approved ADCs. Identifiability of model parameters is also discussed and illustrated on the simulated T-DM1 examples.

Model reduction of the numerical analysis of Low Impact Developments techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunetti, Giuseppe; Šimůnek, Jirka; Wöhling, Thomas; Piro, Patrizia

2017-04-01

Mechanistic models have proven to be accurate and reliable tools for the numerical analysis of the hydrological behavior of Low Impact Development (LIDs) techniques. However, their widespread adoption is limited by their complexity and computational cost. Recent studies have tried to address this issue by investigating the application of new techniques, such as surrogate-based modeling. However, current results are still limited and fragmented. One of such approaches, the Model Order Reduction (MOR) technique, can represent a valuable tool for reducing the computational complexity of a numerical problems by computing an approximation of the original model. While this technique has been extensively used in water-related problems, no studies have evaluated its use in LIDs modeling. Thus, the main aim of this study is to apply the MOR technique for the development of a reduced order model (ROM) for the numerical analysis of the hydrologic behavior of LIDs, in particular green roofs. The model should be able to correctly reproduce all the hydrological processes of a green roof while reducing the computational cost. The proposed model decouples the subsurface water dynamic of a green roof in a) one-dimensional (1D) vertical flow through a green roof itself and b) one-dimensional saturated lateral flow along the impervious rooftop. The green roof is horizontally discretized in N elements. Each element represents a vertical domain, which can have different properties or boundary conditions. The 1D Richards equation is used to simulate flow in the substrate and drainage layers. Simulated outflow from the vertical domain is used as a recharge term for saturated lateral flow, which is described using the kinematic wave approximation of the Boussinesq equation. The proposed model has been compared with the mechanistic model HYDRUS-2D, which numerically solves the Richards equation for the whole domain. The HYDRUS-1D code has been used for the description of vertical flow, while a Finite Volume Scheme has been adopted for lateral flow. Two scenarios involving flat and steep green roofs were analyzed. Results confirmed the accuracy of the reduced order model, which was able to reproduce both subsurface outflow and the moisture distribution in the green roof, significantly reducing the computational cost.

Exploring Organic Mechanistic Puzzles with Molecular Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horowitz, Gail; Schwartz, Gary

2004-01-01

The molecular modeling was used to reinforce more general skills such as deducing and drawing reaction mechanisms, analyzing reaction kinetics and thermodynamics and drawing reaction coordinate energy diagrams. This modeling was done through the design of mechanistic puzzles, involving reactions not familiar to the students.

Comparison of DNDC and RZWQM2 for simulating hydrology and nitrogen dynamics in a corn-soybean system with a winter cover crop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desjardins, R.; Smith, W.; Qi, Z.; Grant, B.; VanderZaag, A.

2017-12-01

Biophysical models are needed for assessing science-based mitigation options to improve the efficiency and sustainability of agricultural cropping systems. In order to account for trade-offs between environmental indicators such as GHG emissions, soil C change, and water quality it is important that models can encapsulate the complex array of interrelated biogeochemical processes controlling water, nutrient and energy flows in the agroecosystem. The Denitrification Decomposition (DNDC) model is one of the most widely used process-based models, and is arguably the most sophisticated for estimating GHG emissions and soil C&N cycling, however, the model simulates only simple cascade water flow. The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of DNDC to a comprehensive water flow model, the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2), to determine which processes in DNDC may be limiting and recommend improvements. Both models were calibrated and validated for simulating crop biomass, soil hydrology, and nitrogen loss to tile drains using detailed observations from a corn-soybean rotation in Iowa, with and without cover crops. Results indicated that crop yields, biomass and the annual estimation of nitrogen and water loss to tiles drains were well simulated by both models (NSE > 0.6 in all cases); however, RZWQM2 performed much better for simulating soil water content, and the dynamics of daily water flow (DNDC: NSE -0.32 to 0.28; RZWQM2: NSE 0.34 to 0.70) to tile drains. DNDC overestimated soil water content near the soil surface and underestimated it deeper in the profile which was presumably caused by the lack of a root distribution algorithm, the inability to simulate a heterogeneous profile and lack of a water table. We recommend these improvements along with the inclusion of enhanced water flow and a mechanistic tile drainage sub-model. The accurate temporal simulation of water and N strongly impacts several biogeochemical processes.

Mechanistic model for catalytic recombination during aerobraking maneuvers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willey, Ronald J.

1989-01-01

Several mechanistic models are developed to predict recombination coefficients for use in heat shield design for reusable surface insulation (RSI) on aerobraking vehicles such as space shuttles. The models are applied over a temperature range of 300 to 1800 K and a stagnation pressure range of 0 to 3,000 Pa. A four parameter model in temperature was found to work best; however, several models (including those with atom concentrations at the surface) were also investigated. Mechanistic models developed with atom concentration terms may be applicable when sufficient data becomes available. The requirement is shown for recombination experiments in the 300 to 1000 K and 1500 to 1850 K temperature range, with deliberate concentration variations.

Modeling and simulation of xylitol production in bioreactor by Debaryomyces nepalensis NCYC 3413 using unstructured and artificial neural network models.

PubMed

Pappu, J Sharon Mano; Gummadi, Sathyanarayana N

2016-11-01

This study examines the use of unstructured kinetic model and artificial neural networks as predictive tools for xylitol production by Debaryomyces nepalensis NCYC 3413 in bioreactor. An unstructured kinetic model was proposed in order to assess the influence of pH (4, 5 and 6), temperature (25°C, 30°C and 35°C) and volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient kLa (0.14h(-1), 0.28h(-1) and 0.56h(-1)) on growth and xylitol production. A feed-forward back-propagation artificial neural network (ANN) has been developed to investigate the effect of process condition on xylitol production. ANN configuration of 6-10-3 layers was selected and trained with 339 experimental data points from bioreactor studies. Results showed that simulation and prediction accuracy of ANN was apparently higher when compared to unstructured mechanistic model under varying operational conditions. ANN was found to be an efficient data-driven tool to predict the optimal harvest time in xylitol production. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative evaluation of statistical and mechanistic models of Escherichia coli at beaches in southern Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safaie, Ammar; Wendzel, Aaron; Ge, Zhongfu; Nevers, Meredith; Whitman, Richard L.; Corsi, Steven R.; Phanikumar, Mantha S.

2016-01-01

Statistical and mechanistic models are popular tools for predicting the levels of indicator bacteria at recreational beaches. Researchers tend to use one class of model or the other, and it is difficult to generalize statements about their relative performance due to differences in how the models are developed, tested, and used. We describe a cooperative modeling approach for freshwater beaches impacted by point sources in which insights derived from mechanistic modeling were used to further improve the statistical models and vice versa. The statistical models provided a basis for assessing the mechanistic models which were further improved using probability distributions to generate high-resolution time series data at the source, long-term “tracer” transport modeling based on observed electrical conductivity, better assimilation of meteorological data, and the use of unstructured-grids to better resolve nearshore features. This approach resulted in improved models of comparable performance for both classes including a parsimonious statistical model suitable for real-time predictions based on an easily measurable environmental variable (turbidity). The modeling approach outlined here can be used at other sites impacted by point sources and has the potential to improve water quality predictions resulting in more accurate estimates of beach closures.

Testing the molecular clock using mechanistic models of fossil preservation and molecular evolution.

PubMed

Warnock, Rachel C M; Yang, Ziheng; Donoghue, Philip C J

2017-06-28

Molecular sequence data provide information about relative times only, and fossil-based age constraints are the ultimate source of information about absolute times in molecular clock dating analyses. Thus, fossil calibrations are critical to molecular clock dating, but competing methods are difficult to evaluate empirically because the true evolutionary time scale is never known. Here, we combine mechanistic models of fossil preservation and sequence evolution in simulations to evaluate different approaches to constructing fossil calibrations and their impact on Bayesian molecular clock dating, and the relative impact of fossil versus molecular sampling. We show that divergence time estimation is impacted by the model of fossil preservation, sampling intensity and tree shape. The addition of sequence data may improve molecular clock estimates, but accuracy and precision is dominated by the quality of the fossil calibrations. Posterior means and medians are poor representatives of true divergence times; posterior intervals provide a much more accurate estimate of divergence times, though they may be wide and often do not have high coverage probability. Our results highlight the importance of increased fossil sampling and improved statistical approaches to generating calibrations, which should incorporate the non-uniform nature of ecological and temporal fossil species distributions. © 2017 The Authors.

Modelling and shadowgraph imaging of cocrystal dissolution and assessment of in vitro antimicrobial activity for sulfadimidine/4-aminosalicylic acid cocrystals.

PubMed

Serrano, Dolores R; Persoons, Tim; D'Arcy, Deirdre M; Galiana, Carolina; Dea-Ayuela, Maria Auxiliadora; Healy, Anne Marie

2016-06-30

The aim of this work was to evaluate the influence of crystal habit on the dissolution and in vitro antibacterial and anitiprotozoal activity of sulfadimidine:4-aminosalicylic acid cocrystals. Cocrystals were produced via milling or solvent mediated processes. In vitro dissolution was carried out in the flow-through apparatus, with shadowgraph imaging and mechanistic mathematical models used to observe and simulate particle dissolution. In vitro activity was tested using agar diffusion assays. Cocrystallisation via milling produced small polyhedral crystals with antimicrobial activity significantly higher than sulfadimidine alone, consistent with a fast dissolution rate which was matched only by cocrystals which were milled following solvent evaporation. Cocrystallisation by solvent evaporation (ethanol, acetone) or spray drying produced flattened, plate-like or quasi-spherical cocrystals, respectively, with more hydrophobic surfaces and greater tendency to form aggregates in aqueous media, limiting both the dissolution rate and in vitro activity. Deviation from predicted dissolution profiles was attributable to aggregation behaviour, supported by observations from shadowgraph imaging. Aggregation behaviour during dissolution of cocrystals with different habits affected the dissolution rate, consistent with in vitro activity. Combining mechanistic models with shadowgraph imaging is a valuable approach for dissolution process analysis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing the next generation of forest ecosystem models

Treesearch

Christopher R. Schwalm; Alan R. Ek

2002-01-01

Forest ecology and management are model-rich areas for research. Models are often cast as either empirical or mechanistic. With evolving climate change, hybrid models gain new relevance because of their ability to integrate existing mechanistic knowledge with empiricism based on causal thinking. The utility of hybrid platforms results in the combination of...

A MECHANISTIC MODEL FOR MERCURY CAPTURE WITH IN-SITU GENERATED TITANIA PARTICLES: ROLE OF WATER VAPOR

EPA Science Inventory

A mechanistic model to predict the capture of gas phase mercury species using in-situ generated titania nanosize particles activated by UV irradiation is developed. The model is an extension of a recently reported model1 for photochemical reactions that accounts for the rates of...

Biophysics, environmental stochasticity, and the evolution of thermal safety margins in intertidal limpets.

PubMed

Denny, M W; Dowd, W W

2012-03-15

As the air temperature of the Earth rises, ecological relationships within a community might shift, in part due to differences in the thermal physiology of species. Prediction of these shifts - an urgent task for ecologists - will be complicated if thermal tolerance itself can rapidly evolve. Here, we employ a mechanistic approach to predict the potential for rapid evolution of thermal tolerance in the intertidal limpet Lottia gigantea. Using biophysical principles to predict body temperature as a function of the state of the environment, and an environmental bootstrap procedure to predict how the environment fluctuates through time, we create hypothetical time-series of limpet body temperatures, which are in turn used as a test platform for a mechanistic evolutionary model of thermal tolerance. Our simulations suggest that environmentally driven stochastic variation of L. gigantea body temperature results in rapid evolution of a substantial 'safety margin': the average lethal limit is 5-7°C above the average annual maximum temperature. This predicted safety margin approximately matches that found in nature, and once established is sufficient, in our simulations, to allow some limpet populations to survive a drastic, century-long increase in air temperature. By contrast, in the absence of environmental stochasticity, the safety margin is dramatically reduced. We suggest that the risk of exceeding the safety margin, rather than the absolute value of the safety margin, plays an underappreciated role in the evolution of thermal tolerance. Our predictions are based on a simple, hypothetical, allelic model that connects genetics to thermal physiology. To move beyond this simple model - and thereby potentially to predict differential evolution among populations and among species - will require significant advances in our ability to translate the details of thermal histories into physiological and population-genetic consequences.

A theoretical study on the mechanistic highlights behind the Brønsted-acid dependent mer-fac isomerization of homoleptic carbenic iridium complexes for PhOLEDs.

PubMed

Setzer, Tobias; Lennartz, Christian; Dreuw, Andreas

2017-06-06

Recently, a successful Brønsted-acid mediated geometric isomerization of the meridional homoleptic carbenic iridium(iii) complexes tris-(N-phenyl,N-methyl-benzimidazol-2-yl)iridium(iii) (1) and tris-(N-phenyl,N-benzyl-benzimidazol-2-yl)iridium(iii) (2) into their facial form has been reported. In the present work the pronounced acid-dependency of this particular isomerization procedure is revisited and additional mechanistic pathways are taken into account. Moreover, the acid-induced material decomposition is addressed. All calculations are carried out using density functional theory (DFT) while the environmental effects in solution are accounted for by the COSMO-RS model. The simulated results clearly reveal the outstanding importance of the complex interplay between acid strength, coordinating power of the corresponding base and the steric influence of the ligand system in contrast to the plain calculation of minimum energy pathways for selected complexes. Eventually, general rules to enhance the material-specific reaction yields are provided.

A model of strength

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Douglas H.; Cook, R.D.

2013-01-01

In her AAAS News & Notes piece "Can the Southwest manage its thirst?" (26 July, p. 362), K. Wren quotes Ajay Kalra, who advocates a particular method for predicting Colorado River streamflow "because it eschews complex physical climate models for a statistical data-driven modeling approach." A preference for data-driven models may be appropriate in this individual situation, but it is not so generally, Data-driven models often come with a warning against extrapolating beyond the range of the data used to develop the models. When the future is like the past, data-driven models can work well for prediction, but it is easy to over-model local or transient phenomena, often leading to predictive inaccuracy (1). Mechanistic models are built on established knowledge of the process that connects the response variables with the predictors, using information obtained outside of an extant data set. One may shy away from a mechanistic approach when the underlying process is judged to be too complicated, but good predictive models can be constructed with statistical components that account for ingredients missing in the mechanistic analysis. Models with sound mechanistic components are more generally applicable and robust than data-driven models.

Rational and Mechanistic Perspectives on Reinforcement Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chater, Nick

2009-01-01

This special issue describes important recent developments in applying reinforcement learning models to capture neural and cognitive function. But reinforcement learning, as a theoretical framework, can apply at two very different levels of description: "mechanistic" and "rational." Reinforcement learning is often viewed in mechanistic terms--as…

Modeling the Population Dynamics of Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria:. AN Agent-Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, James T.; Walshe, Ray; Devocelle, Marc

The response of bacterial populations to antibiotic treatment is often a function of a diverse range of interacting factors. In order to develop strategies to minimize the spread of antibiotic resistance in pathogenic bacteria, a sound theoretical understanding of the systems of interactions taking place within a colony must be developed. The agent-based approach to modeling bacterial populations is a useful tool for relating data obtained at the molecular and cellular level with the overall population dynamics. Here we demonstrate an agent-based model, called Micro-Gen, which has been developed to simulate the growth and development of bacterial colonies in culture. The model also incorporates biochemical rules and parameters describing the kinetic interactions of bacterial cells with antibiotic molecules. Simulations were carried out to replicate the development of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) colonies growing in the presence of antibiotics. The model was explored to see how the properties of the system emerge from the interactions of the individual bacterial agents in order to achieve a better mechanistic understanding of the population dynamics taking place. Micro-Gen provides a good theoretical framework for investigating the effects of local environmental conditions and cellular properties on the response of bacterial populations to antibiotic exposure in the context of a simulated environment.

Investigation of mechanistic deterioration modeling for bridge design and management.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

The ongoing deterioration of highway bridges in Colorado dictates that an effective method for allocating limited management resources be developed. In order to predict bridge deterioration in advance, mechanistic models that analyze the physical pro...

Validation of a mathematical model of the bovine estrous cycle for cows with different estrous cycle characteristics.

PubMed

Boer, H M T; Butler, S T; Stötzel, C; Te Pas, M F W; Veerkamp, R F; Woelders, H

2017-11-01

A recently developed mechanistic mathematical model of the bovine estrous cycle was parameterized to fit empirical data sets collected during one estrous cycle of 31 individual cows, with the main objective to further validate the model. The a priori criteria for validation were (1) the resulting model can simulate the measured data correctly (i.e. goodness of fit), and (2) this is achieved without needing extreme, probably non-physiological parameter values. We used a least squares optimization procedure to identify parameter configurations for the mathematical model to fit the empirical in vivo measurements of follicle and corpus luteum sizes, and the plasma concentrations of progesterone, estradiol, FSH and LH for each cow. The model was capable of accommodating normal variation in estrous cycle characteristics of individual cows. With the parameter sets estimated for the individual cows, the model behavior changed for 21 cows, with improved fit of the simulated output curves for 18 of these 21 cows. Moreover, the number of follicular waves was predicted correctly for 18 of the 25 two-wave and three-wave cows, without extreme parameter value changes. Estimation of specific parameters confirmed results of previous model simulations indicating that parameters involved in luteolytic signaling are very important for regulation of general estrous cycle characteristics, and are likely responsible for differences in estrous cycle characteristics between cows.

Molecular Modeling of the Binding Structures in the Interlayer Adsorption of a Tetracycline Antibiotic by Smectite Clays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aristilde, L.

2009-12-01

A controlling factor in the fate of antibiotics in the environment is their sequestration in soil particles including clay minerals. Of special interest is the interlayer adsorption by smectite clays, which has been shown to influence both the bioavailability and persistence of antibiotics in the soil environment. However, the interlayer structures of the bound antibiotics, essential to an accurate understanding of the adsorption mechanisms, are not well understood. Molecular simulations of oxytetracycline (OTC) with a model montmorillonite (MONT) clay were performed to gain insights into these structures for tetracycline antibiotics. Monte Carlo simulations were used for explorations of the clay layer spacing required for the adsorption of the antibiotic under different hydration states of the clay interlayer; these preliminary results were validated with previous X-ray diffraction patterns obtained following sorption experiments of OTC with MONT. Molecular dynamics relaxation simulations were performed subsequently in order to obtain geometry-optimized structures of the binding conformations of the intercalated antibiotic in the model MONT layers. This study contributes to a mechanistic understanding of the factors controlling the interlayer adsorption of the tetracycline antibiotics by the expandable smectite clay minerals. Figure 1. Optimized Monte Carlo simulation cell of OTC in the interlayer of MONT: perspective side view (top) and bottom view (bottom).

Modeling behavioral thermoregulation in a climate change sentinel.

PubMed

Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Mathewson, Paul D; Jones, Gavin M; Kearney, Michael R; Porter, Warren P

2015-12-01

When possible, many species will shift in elevation or latitude in response to rising temperatures. However, before such shifts occur, individuals will first tolerate environmental change and then modify their behavior to maintain heat balance. Behavioral thermoregulation allows animals a range of climatic tolerances and makes predicting geographic responses under future warming scenarios challenging. Because behavioral modification may reduce an individual's fecundity by, for example, limiting foraging time and thus caloric intake, we must consider the range of behavioral options available for thermoregulation to accurately predict climate change impacts on individual species. To date, few studies have identified mechanistic links between an organism's daily activities and the need to thermoregulate. We used a biophysical model, Niche Mapper, to mechanistically model microclimate conditions and thermoregulatory behavior for a temperature-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). Niche Mapper accurately simulated microclimate conditions, as well as empirical metabolic chamber data for a range of fur properties, animal sizes, and environmental parameters. Niche Mapper predicted pikas would be behaviorally constrained because of the need to thermoregulate during the hottest times of the day. We also showed that pikas at low elevations could receive energetic benefits by being smaller in size and maintaining summer pelage during longer stretches of the active season under a future warming scenario. We observed pika behavior for 288 h in Glacier National Park, Montana, and thermally characterized their rocky, montane environment. We found that pikas were most active when temperatures were cooler, and at sites characterized by high elevations and north-facing slopes. Pikas became significantly less active across a suite of behaviors in the field when temperatures surpassed 20°C, which supported a metabolic threshold predicted by Niche Mapper. In general, mechanistic predictions and empirical observations were congruent. This research is unique in providing both an empirical and mechanistic description of the effects of temperature on a mammalian sentinel of climate change, the American pika. Our results suggest that previously underinvestigated characteristics, specifically fur properties and body size, may play critical roles in pika populations' response to climate change. We also demonstrate the potential importance of considering behavioral thermoregulation and microclimate variability when predicting animal responses to climate change.

Connecting Urbanization to Precipitation: the case of Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgescu, Matei

2017-04-01

Considerable evidence exists illustrating the influence of urban environments on precipitation. We revisit this theme of significant interest to a broad spectrum of disciplines ranging from urban planning to engineering to urban numerical modeling and climate, by detailing the simulated effect of Mexico City's built environment on regional precipitation. Utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system to determine spatiotemporal changes in near-surface air temperature, precipitation, and boundary layer conditions induced by the modern-day urban landscape relative to presettlement conditions, I mechanistically link the built environment-induced increase in air temperature to simulated increases in rainfall during the evening hours. This simulated increase in precipitation is in agreement with historical observations documenting observed rainfall increase. These results have important implications for understanding the meteorological conditions leading to the widespread and recurrent urban flooding that continues to plague the Mexico City Metropolitan Area.

Improved theory of time domain reflectometry with variable coaxial cable length for electrical conductivity measurements

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Although empirical models have been developed previously, a mechanistic model is needed for estimating electrical conductivity (EC) using time domain reflectometry (TDR) with variable lengths of coaxial cable. The goals of this study are to: (1) derive a mechanistic model based on multisection tra...

Transient Kinetics Define a Complete Kinetic Model for Protein Arginine Methyltransferase 1*

PubMed Central

Hu, Hao; Luo, Cheng; Zheng, Y. George

2016-01-01

Protein arginine methyltransferases (PRMTs) are the enzymes responsible for posttranslational methylation of protein arginine residues in eukaryotic cells, particularly within the histone tails. A detailed mechanistic model of PRMT-catalyzed methylation is currently lacking, but it is essential for understanding the functions of PRMTs in various cellular pathways and for efficient design of PRMT inhibitors as potential treatments for a range of human diseases. In this work, we used stopped-flow fluorescence in combination with global kinetic simulation to dissect the transient kinetics of PRMT1, the predominant type I arginine methyltransferase. Several important mechanistic insights were revealed. The cofactor and the peptide substrate bound to PRMT1 in a random manner and then followed a kinetically preferred pathway to generate the catalytic enzyme-cofactor-substrate ternary complex. Product release proceeded in an ordered fashion, with peptide dissociation followed by release of the byproduct S-adenosylhomocysteine. Importantly, the dissociation rate of the monomethylated intermediate from the ternary complex was much faster than the methyl transfer. Such a result provided direct evidence for distributive arginine dimethylation, which means the monomethylated substrate has to be released to solution and rebind with PRMT1 before it undergoes further methylation. In addition, cofactor binding involved a conformational transition, likely an open-to-closed conversion of the active site pocket. Further, the histone H4 peptide bound to the two active sites of the PRMT1 homodimer with differential affinities, suggesting a negative cooperativity mechanism of substrate binding. These findings provide a new mechanistic understanding of how PRMTs interact with their substrates and transfer methyl groups. PMID:27834681

NEAMS update quarterly report for January - March 2012.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bradley, K.S.; Hayes, S.; Pointer, D.

Quarterly highlights are: (1) The integration of Denovo and AMP was demonstrated in an AMP simulation of the thermo-mechanics of a complete fuel assembly; (2) Bison was enhanced with a mechanistic fuel cracking model; (3) Mechanistic algorithms were incorporated into various lower-length-scale models to represent fission gases and dislocations in UO2 fuels; (4) Marmot was improved to allow faster testing of mesoscale models using larger problem domains; (5) Component models of reactor piping were developed for use in Relap-7; (6) The mesh generator of Proteus was updated to accept a mesh specification from Moose and equations were formulated for themore » intermediate-fidelity Proteus-2D1D module; (7) A new pressure solver was implemented in Nek5000 and demonstrated to work 2.5 times faster than the previous solver; (8) Work continued on volume-holdup models for two fuel reprocessing operations: voloxidation and dissolution; (9) Progress was made on a pyroprocessing model and the characterization of pyroprocessing emission signatures; (10) A new 1D groundwater waste transport code was delivered to the used fuel disposition (UFD) campaign; (11) Efforts on waste form modeling included empirical simulation of sodium-borosilicate glass compositions; (12) The Waste team developed three prototypes for modeling hydride reorientation in fuel cladding during very long-term fuel storage; (13) A benchmark demonstration problem (fission gas bubble growth) was modeled to evaluate the capabilities of different meso-scale numerical methods; (14) Work continued on a hierarchical up-scaling framework to model structural materials by directly coupling dislocation dynamics and crystal plasticity; (15) New 'importance sampling' methods were developed and demonstrated to reduce the computational cost of rare-event inference; (16) The survey and evaluation of existing data and knowledge bases was updated for NE-KAMS; (17) The NEAMS Early User Program was launched; (18) The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Office of Regulatory Research was introduced to the NEAMS program; (19) The NEAMS overall software quality assurance plan (SQAP) was revised to version 1.5; and (20) Work continued on NiCE and its plug-ins and other utilities, such as Cubit and VisIt.« less

Flow regimes and mechanistic modeling of critical heat flux under subcooled flow boiling conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Corre, Jean-Marie

Thermal performance of heat flux controlled boiling heat exchangers are usually limited by the Critical Heat Flux (CHF) above which the heat transfer degrades quickly, possibly leading to heater overheating and destruction. In an effort to better understand the phenomena, a literature review of CHF experimental visualizations under subcooled flow boiling conditions was performed and systematically analyzed. Three major types of CHF flow regimes were identified (bubbly, vapor clot and slug flow regime) and a CHF flow regime map was developed, based on a dimensional analysis of the phenomena and available data. It was found that for similar geometric characteristics and pressure, a Weber number (We)/thermodynamic quality (x) map can be used to predict the CHF flow regime. Based on the experimental observations and the review of the available CHF mechanistic models under subcooled flow boiling conditions, hypothetical CHF mechanisms were selected for each CHF flow regime, all based on a concept of wall dry spot overheating, rewetting prevention and subsequent dry spot spreading. It is postulated that a high local wall superheat occurs locally in a dry area of the heated wall, due to a cyclical event inherent to the considered CHF two-phase flow regime, preventing rewetting (Leidenfrost effect). The selected modeling concept has the potential to span the CHF conditions from highly subcooled bubbly flow to early stage of annular flow. A numerical model using a two-dimensional transient thermal analysis of the heater undergoing nucleation was developed to mechanistically predict CHF in the case of a bubbly flow regime. In this type of CHF two-phase flow regime, the high local wall superheat occurs underneath a nucleating bubble at the time of bubble departure. The model simulates the spatial and temporal heater temperature variations during nucleation at the wall, accounting for the stochastic nature of the boiling phenomena. The model has also the potential to evaluate the post-DNB heater temperature up to the point of heater melting. Validation of the proposed model was performed using detailed measured wall boiling parameters near CHF, thereby bypassing most needed constitutive relations. It was found that under limiting nucleation conditions; a peak wall temperature at the time of bubble departure can be reached at CHF preventing wall cooling by quenching. The simulations show that the resulting dry patch can survive the surrounding quenching event, preventing further nucleation and leading to a fast heater temperature increase. For more practical applications, the model was applied at known CHF conditions in simple geometry coupled with one-dimensional and three-dimensional (CFD) codes. It was found that, in the case where CHF occurs under bubbly flow conditions, the local wall superheat underneath nucleating bubbles is predicted to reach the Leidenfrost temperature. However, a better knowledge of statistical variations in wall boiling parameters would be necessary to correctly capture the CHF trends with mass flux (or Weber number). In addition, consideration of relevant parameter influences on the Leidenfrost temperature and consideration of interfacial microphysics at the wall would allow improved simulation of the wall rewetting prevention and subsequent dry patch spreading.

The Japanese utilities` expectations for subchannel analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Toba, Akio; Omoto, Akira

1995-12-01

Boiling water reactor (BWR) utilities in Japan began to consider the development of a mechanistic model to describe the critical heat transfer conditions in the BWR fuel subchannel. Such a mechanistic model will not only decrease the necessity of tests, but will also help by removing some overly conservative safety margins in thermal hydraulics. With the use of a postdryout heat transfer correlation, new acceptance criteria may be applicable to evaluate the fuel integrity. Mechanistic subchannel analysis models will certainly back up this approach. This model will also be applicable to the analysis of large-size fuel bundles and examination ofmore » corrosion behavior.« less

Roughness Versus Charge Contributions to Representative Discrete Heterogeneity Underlying Mechanistic Prediction of Colloid Attachment, Detachment and Breakthrough-Elution Behavior Under Environmental Conditions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, William; Farnsworth, Anna; Vanness, Kurt; Hilpert, Markus

2017-04-01

The key element of a mechanistic theory to predict colloid attachment in porous media under environmental conditions where colloid-collector repulsion exists (unfavorable conditions for attachment) is representation of the nano-scale surface heterogeneity (herein called discrete heterogeneity) that drives colloid attachment under unfavorable conditions. The observed modes of colloid attachment under unfavorable conditions emerge from simulations that incorporate discrete heterogeneity. Quantitative prediction of attachment (and detachment) requires capturing the sizes, spatial frequencies, and other properties of roughness asperities and charge heterodomains in discrete heterogeneity representations of different surfaces. The fact that a given discrete heterogeneity representation will interact differently with different-sized colloids as well as different ionic strengths for a given sized colloid allows backing out representative discrete heterogeneity via comparison of simulations to experiments performed across a range of colloid size, solution IS, and fluid velocity. This has been achieved on unfavorable smooth surfaces yielding quantitative prediction of attachment, and qualitative prediction of detachment in response to ionic strength or flow perturbations. Extending this treatment to rough surfaces, and representing the contributions of nanoscale roughness as well as charge heterogeneity is a focus of this talk. Another focus of this talk is the upscaling the pore scale simulations to produce contrasting breakthrough-elution behaviors at the continuum (column) scale that are observed, for example, for different-sized colloids, or same-sized colloids under different ionic strength conditions. The outcome of mechanistic pore scale simulations incorporating discrete heterogeneity and subsequent upscaling is that temporal processes such as blocking and ripening will emerge organically from these simulations, since these processes fundamentally stem from the limited sites available for attachment as represented in discrete heterogeneity.

Genome-scale modeling of human metabolism - a systems biology approach.

PubMed

Mardinoglu, Adil; Gatto, Francesco; Nielsen, Jens

2013-09-01

Altered metabolism is linked to the appearance of various human diseases and a better understanding of disease-associated metabolic changes may lead to the identification of novel prognostic biomarkers and the development of new therapies. Genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs) have been employed for studying human metabolism in a systematic manner, as well as for understanding complex human diseases. In the past decade, such metabolic models - one of the fundamental aspects of systems biology - have started contributing to the understanding of the mechanistic relationship between genotype and phenotype. In this review, we focus on the construction of the Human Metabolic Reaction database, the generation of healthy cell type- and cancer-specific GEMs using different procedures, and the potential applications of these developments in the study of human metabolism and in the identification of metabolic changes associated with various disorders. We further examine how in silico genome-scale reconstructions can be employed to simulate metabolic flux distributions and how high-throughput omics data can be analyzed in a context-dependent fashion. Insights yielded from this mechanistic modeling approach can be used for identifying new therapeutic agents and drug targets as well as for the discovery of novel biomarkers. Finally, recent advancements in genome-scale modeling and the future challenge of developing a model of whole-body metabolism are presented. The emergent contribution of GEMs to personalized and translational medicine is also discussed. Copyright © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A scalable multi-process model of root nitrogen uptake

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walker, Anthony P.

This article is a Commentary on McMurtrie & Näsholm et al., 218: 119–130. Roots are represented in Terrestrial Ecosystem Models (TEMs) in much less detail than their equivalent above-ground resource acquisition organs – leaves. Often roots in TEMs are simply resource sinks, and below-ground resource acquisition is commonly simulated without any relationship to root dynamics at all, though there are exceptions (e.g. Zaehle & Friend, 2010). The representation of roots as carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) sinks without complementary source functions can lead to strange sensitivities in a model. For example, reducing root lifespans in the Community Land Model (versionmore » 4.5) increases plant production as N cycles more rapidly through the ecosystem without loss of plant function (D. M. Ricciuto, unpublished). The primary reasons for the poorer representation of roots compared with leaves in TEMs are three-fold: (1) data are much harder won, especially in the field; (2) no simple mechanistic models of root function are available; and (3) scaling root function from an individual root to a root system lags behind methods of scaling leaf function to a canopy. Here in this issue of New Phytologist, McMurtrie & Näsholm (pp. 119–130) develop a relatively simple model for root N uptake that mechanistically accounts for processes of N supply (mineralization and transport by diffusion and mass flow) and N demand (root uptake and microbial immobilization).« less

A scalable multi-process model of root nitrogen uptake

DOE PAGES

Walker, Anthony P.

2018-02-28

This article is a Commentary on McMurtrie & Näsholm et al., 218: 119–130. Roots are represented in Terrestrial Ecosystem Models (TEMs) in much less detail than their equivalent above-ground resource acquisition organs – leaves. Often roots in TEMs are simply resource sinks, and below-ground resource acquisition is commonly simulated without any relationship to root dynamics at all, though there are exceptions (e.g. Zaehle & Friend, 2010). The representation of roots as carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) sinks without complementary source functions can lead to strange sensitivities in a model. For example, reducing root lifespans in the Community Land Model (versionmore » 4.5) increases plant production as N cycles more rapidly through the ecosystem without loss of plant function (D. M. Ricciuto, unpublished). The primary reasons for the poorer representation of roots compared with leaves in TEMs are three-fold: (1) data are much harder won, especially in the field; (2) no simple mechanistic models of root function are available; and (3) scaling root function from an individual root to a root system lags behind methods of scaling leaf function to a canopy. Here in this issue of New Phytologist, McMurtrie & Näsholm (pp. 119–130) develop a relatively simple model for root N uptake that mechanistically accounts for processes of N supply (mineralization and transport by diffusion and mass flow) and N demand (root uptake and microbial immobilization).« less

Projected Climate Impacts to South African Maize and Wheat Production in 2055: A Comparison of Empirical and Mechanistic Modeling Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Lyndon D.; Beukes, Hein; Bradley, Bethany A.; Debats, Stephanie R.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Ruane, Alex C.; Schulze, Roland; Tadross, Mark

2013-01-01

Crop model-specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic (MMs) and empirical models (EMs) are rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined MMs and EMs to project future (2055) changes in the potential distribution (suitability) and productivity of maize and spring wheat in South Africa under 18 downscaled climate scenarios (9 models run under 2 emissions scenarios). EMs projected larger yield losses or smaller gains than MMs. The EMs' median-projected maize and wheat yield changes were 3.6% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to 6.5% and 15.2% for the MM. The EM projected a 10% reduction in the potential maize growing area, where the MM projected a 9% gain. Both models showed increases in the potential spring wheat production region (EM = 48%, MM = 20%), but these results were more equivocal because both models (particularly the EM) substantially overestimated the extent of current suitability. The substantial water-use efficiency gains simulated by the MMs under elevated CO2 accounted for much of the EMMM difference, but EMs may have more accurately represented crop temperature sensitivities. Our results align with earlier studies showing that EMs may show larger climate change losses than MMs. Crop forecasting efforts should expand to include EMMM comparisons to provide a fuller picture of crop-climate response uncertainties.

Cadmium dynamics in the rhizosphere and Cd uptake of different plant species evaluated by a mechanistic model.

PubMed

Stritsis, Christos; Steingrobe, Bernd; Claassen, Norbert

2014-01-01

Maize, sunflower,flax, and spinach differed in the accumulation of Cd when grown on a Cd contaminated soil. This was mainly due to the different Cd net influx, In, that varied among species by a factor of up to 30. The objective of this study was to find possible reasons for the different Cd In by using a mechanistic model. After 14 days of Cd uptake the model calculated only a small Cd depletion at the root surface, e.g. from 0.22 mumol L(-1) down to 0.19 mumol L(-1) for maize and from 0.48 mumol L(-1) down to 0.35 mumol L(-1)for spinach. Even so the model always overestimated the Cd I(n), for spinach by a factor of 1.5 and for maize by a factor of 10. Only simulating a decrease of C(Li) or the root absorbing power, alpha, by 40% to 90% gave an agreement of calculated and measured I(n),. This may be interpreted as that about 40% in the case of spinach and 90% in the case of maize of the Cd in soil solution were not accessible for plant uptake. The high sensitivity to alpha also shows that not the Cd transport to the root but alpha was limiting the step for Cd uptake.

Study the Cyclic Plasticity Behavior of 508 LAS under Constant, Variable and Grid-Load-Following Loading Cycles for Fatigue Evaluation of PWR Components

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohanty, Subhasish; Barua, Bipul; Soppet, William K.

This report provides an update of an earlier assessment of environmentally assisted fatigue for components in light water reactors. This report is a deliverable in September 2016 under the work package for environmentally assisted fatigue under DOE’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability program. In an April 2016 report, we presented a detailed thermal-mechanical stress analysis model for simulating the stress-strain state of a reactor pressure vessel and its nozzles under grid-load-following conditions. In this report, we provide stress-controlled fatigue test data for 508 LAS base metal alloy under different loading amplitudes (constant, variable, and random grid-load-following) and environmental conditions (in airmore » or pressurized water reactor coolant water at 300°C). Also presented is a cyclic plasticity-based analytical model that can simultaneously capture the amplitude and time dependency of the component behavior under fatigue loading. Results related to both amplitude-dependent and amplitude-independent parameters are presented. The validation results for the analytical/mechanistic model are discussed. This report provides guidance for estimating time-dependent, amplitude-independent parameters related to material behavior under different service conditions. The developed mechanistic models and the reported material parameters can be used to conduct more accurate fatigue and ratcheting evaluation of reactor components.« less

Specialists without spirit: limitations of the mechanistic biomedical model.

PubMed

Hewa, S; Hetherington, R W

1995-06-01

This paper examines the origin and the development of the mechanistic model of the human body and health in terms of Max Weber's theory of rationalization. It is argued that the development of Western scientific medicine is a part of the broad process of rationalization that began in sixteenth century Europe as a result of the Reformation. The development of the mechanistic view of the human body in Western medicine is consistent with the ideas of calculability, predictability, and control-the major tenets of the process of rationalization as described by Weber. In recent years, however, the limitations of the mechanistic model have been the topic of many discussions. George Engel, a leading advocate of general systems theory, is one of the leading proponents of a new medical model which includes the general quality of life, clean environment, and psychological, or spiritual stability of life. The paper concludes with consideration of the potential of Engel's proposed new model in the context of the current state of rationalization in modern industrialized society.

A mechanistic model of small intestinal starch digestion and glucose uptake in the cow.

PubMed

Mills, J A N; France, J; Ellis, J L; Crompton, L A; Bannink, A; Hanigan, M D; Dijkstra, J

2017-06-01

The high contribution of postruminal starch digestion (up to 50%) to total-tract starch digestion on energy-dense, starch-rich diets demands that limitations to small intestinal starch digestion be identified. A mechanistic model of the small intestine was described and evaluated with regard to its ability to simulate observations from abomasal carbohydrate infusions in the dairy cow. The 7 state variables represent starch, oligosaccharide, glucose, and pancreatic amylase in the intestinal lumen, oligosaccharide and glucose in the unstirred water layer at the intestinal wall, and intracellular glucose of the enterocyte. Enzymatic hydrolysis of starch was modeled as a 2-stage process involving the activity of pancreatic amylase in the lumen and of oligosaccharidase at the brush border of the enterocyte confined within the unstirred water layer. The Na + -dependent glucose transport into the enterocyte was represented along with a facilitative glucose transporter 2 transport system on the basolateral membrane. The small intestine is subdivided into 3 main sections, representing the duodenum, jejunum, and ileum for parameterization. Further subsections are defined between which continual digesta flow is represented. The model predicted nonstructural carbohydrate disappearance in the small intestine for cattle unadapted to duodenal infusion with a coefficient of determination of 0.92 and a root mean square prediction error of 25.4%. Simulation of glucose disappearance for mature Holstein heifers adapted to various levels of duodenal glucose infusion yielded a coefficient of determination of 0.81 and a root mean square prediction error of 38.6%. Analysis of model behavior identified limitations to the efficiency of small intestinal starch digestion with high levels of duodenal starch flow. Limitations to individual processes, particularly starch digestion in the proximal section of the intestine, can create asynchrony between starch hydrolysis and glucose uptake capacity. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Laboratory-scale experiments and numerical modeling of cosolvent flushing of multi-component NAPLs in saturated porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agaoglu, Berken; Scheytt, Traugott; Copty, Nadim K.

2012-10-01

This study examines the mechanistic processes governing multiphase flow of a water-cosolvent-NAPL system in saturated porous media. Laboratory batch and column flushing experiments were conducted to determine the equilibrium properties of pure NAPL and synthetically prepared NAPL mixtures as well as NAPL recovery mechanisms for different water-ethanol contents. The effect of contact time was investigated by considering different steady and intermittent flow velocities. A modified version of multiphase flow simulator (UTCHEM) was used to compare the multiphase model simulations with the column experiment results. The effect of employing different grid geometries (1D, 2D, 3D), heterogeneity and different initial NAPL saturation configurations was also examined in the model. It is shown that the change in velocity affects the mass transfer rate between phases as well as the ultimate NAPL recovery percentage. The experiments with low flow rate flushing of pure NAPL and the 3D UTCHEM simulations gave similar effluent concentrations and NAPL cumulative recoveries. Model simulations over-estimated NAPL recovery for high specific discharges and rate-limited mass transfer, suggesting a constant mass transfer coefficient for the entire flushing experiment may not be valid. When multi-component NAPLs are present, the dissolution rate of individual organic compounds (namely, toluene and benzene) into the ethanol-water flushing solution is found not to correlate with their equilibrium solubility values.

Comparing two-zone models of dust exposure.

PubMed

Jones, Rachael M; Simmons, Catherine E; Boelter, Fred W

2011-09-01

The selection and application of mathematical models to work tasks is challenging. Previously, we developed and evaluated a semi-empirical two-zone model that predicts time-weighted average (TWA) concentrations (Ctwa) of dust emitted during the sanding of drywall joint compound. Here, we fit the emission rate and random air speed variables of a mechanistic two-zone model to testing event data and apply and evaluate the model using data from two field studies. We found that the fitted random air speed values and emission rate were sensitive to (i) the size of the near-field and (ii) the objective function used for fitting, but this did not substantially impact predicted dust Ctwa. The mechanistic model predictions were lower than the semi-empirical model predictions and measured respirable dust Ctwa at Site A but were within an acceptable range. At Site B, a 10.5 m3 room, the mechanistic model did not capture the observed difference between PBZ and area Ctwa. The model predicted uniform mixing and predicted dust Ctwa up to an order of magnitude greater than was measured. We suggest that applications of the mechanistic model be limited to contexts where the near-field volume is very small relative to the far-field volume.

CALM: Complex Adaptive System (CAS)-Based Decision Support for Enabling Organizational Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adler, Richard M.; Koehn, David J.

Guiding organizations through transformational changes such as restructuring or adopting new technologies is a daunting task. Such changes generate workforce uncertainty, fear, and resistance, reducing morale, focus and performance. Conventional project management techniques fail to mitigate these disruptive effects, because social and individual changes are non-mechanistic, organic phenomena. CALM (for Change, Adaptation, Learning Model) is an innovative decision support system for enabling change based on CAS principles. CALM provides a low risk method for validating and refining change strategies that combines scenario planning techniques with "what-if" behavioral simulation. In essence, CALM "test drives" change strategies before rolling them out, allowing organizations to practice and learn from virtual rather than actual mistakes. This paper describes the CALM modeling methodology, including our metrics for measuring organizational readiness to respond to change and other major CALM scenario elements: prospective change strategies; alternate futures; and key situational dynamics. We then describe CALM's simulation engine for projecting scenario outcomes and its associated analytics. CALM's simulator unifies diverse behavioral simulation paradigms including: adaptive agents; system dynamics; Monte Carlo; event- and process-based techniques. CALM's embodiment of CAS dynamics helps organizations reduce risk and improve confidence and consistency in critical strategies for enabling transformations.

tsiR: An R package for time-series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered models of epidemics.

PubMed

Becker, Alexander D; Grenfell, Bryan T

2017-01-01

tsiR is an open source software package implemented in the R programming language designed to analyze infectious disease time-series data. The software extends a well-studied and widely-applied algorithm, the time-series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (TSIR) model, to infer parameters from incidence data, such as contact seasonality, and to forward simulate the underlying mechanistic model. The tsiR package aggregates a number of different fitting features previously described in the literature in a user-friendly way, providing support for their broader adoption in infectious disease research. Also included in tsiR are a number of diagnostic tools to assess the fit of the TSIR model. This package should be useful for researchers analyzing incidence data for fully-immunizing infectious diseases.

Modelling the economic impact of three lameness causing diseases using herd and cow level evidence.

PubMed

Ettema, Jehan; Østergaard, Søren; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

2010-06-01

Diseases to the cow's hoof, interdigital skin and legs are highly prevalent and of large economic impact in modern dairy farming. In order to support farmer's decisions on preventing and treating lameness and its underlying causes, decision support models can be used to predict the economic profitability of such actions. An existing approach of modelling lameness as one health disorder in a dynamic, stochastic and mechanistic simulation model has been improved in two ways. First of all, three underlying diseases causing lameness were modelled: digital dermatitis, interdigital hyperplasia and claw horn diseases. Secondly, the existing simulation model was set-up in way that it uses hyper-distributions describing diseases risk of the three lameness causing diseases. By combining information on herd level risk factors with prevalence of lameness or prevalence of underlying diseases among cows, marginal posterior probability distributions for disease prevalence in the specific herd are created in a Bayesian network. Random draws from these distributions are used by the simulation model to describe disease risk. Hereby field data on prevalence is used systematically and uncertainty around herd specific risk is represented. Besides the fact that estimated profitability of halving disease risk depended on the hyper-distributions used, the estimates differed for herds with different levels of diseases risk and reproductive efficiency. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a Patient-Specific Multi-Scale Model to Understand Atherosclerosis and Calcification Locations: Comparison with In vivo Data in an Aortic Dissection

PubMed Central

Alimohammadi, Mona; Pichardo-Almarza, Cesar; Agu, Obiekezie; Díaz-Zuccarini, Vanessa

2016-01-01

Vascular calcification results in stiffening of the aorta and is associated with hypertension and atherosclerosis. Atherogenesis is a complex, multifactorial, and systemic process; the result of a number of factors, each operating simultaneously at several spatial and temporal scales. The ability to predict sites of atherogenesis would be of great use to clinicians in order to improve diagnostic and treatment planning. In this paper, we present a mathematical model as a tool to understand why atherosclerotic plaque and calcifications occur in specific locations. This model is then used to analyze vascular calcification and atherosclerotic areas in an aortic dissection patient using a mechanistic, multi-scale modeling approach, coupling patient-specific, fluid-structure interaction simulations with a model of endothelial mechanotransduction. A number of hemodynamic factors based on state-of-the-art literature are used as inputs to the endothelial permeability model, in order to investigate plaque and calcification distributions, which are compared with clinical imaging data. A significantly improved correlation between elevated hydraulic conductivity or volume flux and the presence of calcification and plaques was achieved by using a shear index comprising both mean and oscillatory shear components (HOLMES) and a non-Newtonian viscosity model as inputs, as compared to widely used hemodynamic indicators. The proposed approach shows promise as a predictive tool. The improvements obtained using the combined biomechanical/biochemical modeling approach highlight the benefits of mechanistic modeling as a powerful tool to understand complex phenomena and provides insight into the relative importance of key hemodynamic parameters. PMID:27445834

Strawberry tannins inhibit IL-8 secretion in a cell model of gastric inflammation.

PubMed

Fumagalli, Marco; Sangiovanni, Enrico; Vrhovsek, Urska; Piazza, Stefano; Colombo, Elisa; Gasperotti, Mattia; Mattivi, Fulvio; De Fabiani, Emma; Dell'Agli, Mario

2016-09-01

In the present study we chemically profiled tannin-enriched extracts from strawberries and tested their biological properties in a cell model of gastric inflammation. The chemical and biological features of strawberry tannins after in vitro simulated gastric digestion were investigated as well. The anti-inflammatory activities of pure strawberry tannins were assayed to get mechanistic insights. Tannin-enriched extracts from strawberries inhibit IL-8 secretion in TNFα-treated human gastric epithelial cells by dampening the NF-κB signaling. In vitro simulated gastric digestion slightly affected the chemical composition and the biological properties of strawberry tannins. By using pure compounds, we found that casuarictin may act as a pure NF-κB inhibitor while agrimoniin inhibits IL-8 secretion also acting on other biological targets; in our system procyanidin B1 prevents the TNFα-induced effects without interfering with the NF-κB pathway. We conclude that strawberry tannins, even after in vitro simulated gastric digestion, exert anti-inflammatory activities at nutritionally relevant concentrations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiscale methods for computational RNA enzymology

PubMed Central

Panteva, Maria T.; Dissanayake, Thakshila; Chen, Haoyuan; Radak, Brian K.; Kuechler, Erich R.; Giambaşu, George M.; Lee, Tai-Sung; York, Darrin M.

2016-01-01

RNA catalysis is of fundamental importance to biology and yet remains ill-understood due to its complex nature. The multi-dimensional “problem space” of RNA catalysis includes both local and global conformational rearrangements, changes in the ion atmosphere around nucleic acids and metal ion binding, dependence on potentially correlated protonation states of key residues and bond breaking/forming in the chemical steps of the reaction. The goal of this article is to summarize and apply multiscale modeling methods in an effort to target the different parts of the RNA catalysis problem space while also addressing the limitations and pitfalls of these methods. Classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, reference interaction site model (RISM) calculations, constant pH molecular dynamics (CpHMD) simulations, Hamiltonian replica exchange molecular dynamics (HREMD) and quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) simulations will be discussed in the context of the study of RNA backbone cleavage transesterification. This reaction is catalyzed by both RNA and protein enzymes, and here we examine the different mechanistic strategies taken by the hepatitis delta virus ribozyme (HDVr) and RNase A. PMID:25726472

Modeling of polymer photodegradation for solar cell modules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Somersall, A. C.; Guillet, J. E.

1982-01-01

It was shown that many of the experimental observations in the photooxidation of hydrocarbon polymers can be accounted for with a computer simulation using an elementary mechanistic model with corresponding rate constants for each reaction. For outdoor applications, however, such as in photovoltaics, the variation of temperature must have important effects on the useful lifetimes of such materials. The data bank necessary to replace the isothermal rate constant values with Arrhenius activation parameters: A (the pre-exponential factor) and E (the activation energy) was searched. The best collection of data assembled to data is summarized. Note, however, that the problem is now considerably enlarged since from a theoretical point of view, with 51 of the input variables replaced with 102 parameters. The sensitivity of the overall scheme is such that even after many computer simulations, a successful photooxidation simulation with the expanded variable set was not completed. Many of the species in the complex process undergo a number of competitive pathways, the relative importance of each being often sensitive to small changes in the calculated rate constant values.

Optimization Control of the Color-Coating Production Process for Model Uncertainty

PubMed Central

He, Dakuo; Wang, Zhengsong; Yang, Le; Mao, Zhizhong

2016-01-01

Optimized control of the color-coating production process (CCPP) aims at reducing production costs and improving economic efficiency while meeting quality requirements. However, because optimization control of the CCPP is hampered by model uncertainty, a strategy that considers model uncertainty is proposed. Previous work has introduced a mechanistic model of CCPP based on process analysis to simulate the actual production process and generate process data. The partial least squares method is then applied to develop predictive models of film thickness and economic efficiency. To manage the model uncertainty, the robust optimization approach is introduced to improve the feasibility of the optimized solution. Iterative learning control is then utilized to further refine the model uncertainty. The constrained film thickness is transformed into one of the tracked targets to overcome the drawback that traditional iterative learning control cannot address constraints. The goal setting of economic efficiency is updated continuously according to the film thickness setting until this reaches its desired value. Finally, fuzzy parameter adjustment is adopted to ensure that the economic efficiency and film thickness converge rapidly to their optimized values under the constraint conditions. The effectiveness of the proposed optimization control strategy is validated by simulation results. PMID:27247563

Optimization Control of the Color-Coating Production Process for Model Uncertainty.

PubMed

He, Dakuo; Wang, Zhengsong; Yang, Le; Mao, Zhizhong

2016-01-01

Optimized control of the color-coating production process (CCPP) aims at reducing production costs and improving economic efficiency while meeting quality requirements. However, because optimization control of the CCPP is hampered by model uncertainty, a strategy that considers model uncertainty is proposed. Previous work has introduced a mechanistic model of CCPP based on process analysis to simulate the actual production process and generate process data. The partial least squares method is then applied to develop predictive models of film thickness and economic efficiency. To manage the model uncertainty, the robust optimization approach is introduced to improve the feasibility of the optimized solution. Iterative learning control is then utilized to further refine the model uncertainty. The constrained film thickness is transformed into one of the tracked targets to overcome the drawback that traditional iterative learning control cannot address constraints. The goal setting of economic efficiency is updated continuously according to the film thickness setting until this reaches its desired value. Finally, fuzzy parameter adjustment is adopted to ensure that the economic efficiency and film thickness converge rapidly to their optimized values under the constraint conditions. The effectiveness of the proposed optimization control strategy is validated by simulation results.

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates.

PubMed

Mathewson, Paul D; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik A; Briscoe, Natalie J; Kearney, Michael; Yahn, Jeremiah M; Porter, Warren P

2017-03-01

How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: The American pika under current, past, and future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mathewson, Paul; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik; Briscoe, Natalie; Kearney, Michael T.; Yahn, Jeremiah; Porter, Warren P.

2017-01-01

How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans.

Greenhouse-gas exchange of croplands worldwide: a process-based model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inatomi, M.; Ito, A.

2009-12-01

Croplands cover about 15% of the land surface, and play unique roles in global biogeochemical cycles. Especially, greenhouse gas budget of croplands is important for climate projection in the future and for mitigation toward climate stabilization. Sustainable cropland is carbon-neutral (i.e., neither a sink nor a source of CO2 for a long time), but those in developed countries consume fossil fuels for agricultural operations and releases CO2 as revealed by LCAs. Paddy field is one of the substantial sources of CH4, and cropland may be the largest anthropogenic source of N2O. However, these features have not been evaluated and discussed using a spatial-explicit comprehensive framework at the global scale. This study applies a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (VISIT) to worldwide croplands. Exchange of CO2 is simulated as a difference between photosynthesis and respiration, each of which is calculated in a biogeochemical carbon cycle scheme. Net carbon budget accounts for carbon flows by planting, compost input, and harvest. Exchange of CH4 is simulated as a difference between oxidation by aerobic soils and production by anaerobic soils, each of which is calculated using mechanistic schemes. Emission of N2O from nitrification and denitrification is simulated with a semi-mechanistic scheme on the basis of leaky-pipe concept. We are also validating the model through comparison with chamber and tower flux measurements. Global simulations were conducted during a period from 1901 to 2100 on the basis of historical and projected climate and land-use conditions, at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree. Cropland type and distribution was derived from SAGE-HYDE dataset and country-base fertilizer input was obtained from FAOSTAT. Our preliminary simulation for the 1990s estimated that croplands are a net sink of CO2 by 1.1 Gt C/yr; this sink is offset by emission by food consumption. Paddy fields are estimated to release CH4 by 46 Tg CH4/yr, and croplands worldwide release N2O by 5.9 Tg N2O/yr. Because of high Global Warming Potential of CH4 (25 for 100-yr) and N2O (298), these results imply that agriculture is a net source of radiative forcing for the atmosphere. Additionally, recent studies show that N2O is the most important substance for stratospheric ozone depletion. Therefore, further studies are needed to improve quantification of greenhouse gas budget in croplands and to design mitigation strategy.

Mechanistic modeling of modular co-rotating twin-screw extruders.

PubMed

Eitzlmayr, Andreas; Koscher, Gerold; Reynolds, Gavin; Huang, Zhenyu; Booth, Jonathan; Shering, Philip; Khinast, Johannes

2014-10-20

In this study, we present a one-dimensional (1D) model of the metering zone of a modular, co-rotating twin-screw extruder for pharmaceutical hot melt extrusion (HME). The model accounts for filling ratio, pressure, melt temperature in screw channels and gaps, driving power, torque and the residence time distribution (RTD). It requires two empirical parameters for each screw element to be determined experimentally or numerically using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The required Nusselt correlation for the heat transfer to the barrel was determined from experimental data. We present results for a fluid with a constant viscosity in comparison to literature data obtained from CFD simulations. Moreover, we show how to incorporate the rheology of a typical, non-Newtonian polymer melt, and present results in comparison to measurements. For both cases, we achieved excellent agreement. Furthermore, we present results for the RTD, based on experimental data from the literature, and found good agreement with simulations, in which the entire HME process was approximated with the metering model, assuming a constant viscosity for the polymer melt. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Preparation for implementation of the mechanistic-empirical pavement design guide in Michigan, part 3 : local calibration and validation of the pavement-ME performance models.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-11-01

The main objective of Part 3 was to locally calibrate and validate the mechanistic-empirical pavement : design guide (Pavement-ME) performance models to Michigan conditions. The local calibration of the : performance models in the Pavement-ME is a ch...

Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago

PubMed Central

Chalmandrier, Loïc; Albouy, Camille; Descombes, Patrice; Sandel, Brody; Faurby, Soren; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2018-01-01

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns. PMID:29657753

Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago.

PubMed

Chalmandrier, Loïc; Albouy, Camille; Descombes, Patrice; Sandel, Brody; Faurby, Soren; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Pellissier, Loïc

2018-03-01

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns.

Modeling Wettability Alteration using Chemical EOR Processes in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mojdeh Delshad; Gary A. Pope; Kamy Sepehrnoori

2007-09-30

The objective of our search is to develop a mechanistic simulation tool by adapting UTCHEM to model the wettability alteration in both conventional and naturally fractured reservoirs. This will be a unique simulator that can model surfactant floods in naturally fractured reservoir with coupling of wettability effects on relative permeabilities, capillary pressure, and capillary desaturation curves. The capability of wettability alteration will help us and others to better understand and predict the oil recovery mechanisms as a function of wettability in naturally fractured reservoirs. The lack of a reliable simulator for wettability alteration means that either the concept that hasmore » already been proven to be effective in the laboratory scale may never be applied commercially to increase oil production or the process must be tested in the field by trial and error and at large expense in time and money. The objective of Task 1 is to perform a literature survey to compile published data on relative permeability, capillary pressure, dispersion, interfacial tension, and capillary desaturation curve as a function of wettability to aid in the development of petrophysical property models as a function of wettability. The new models and correlations will be tested against published data. The models will then be implemented in the compositional chemical flooding reservoir simulator, UTCHEM. The objective of Task 2 is to understand the mechanisms and develop a correlation for the degree of wettability alteration based on published data. The objective of Task 3 is to validate the models and implementation against published data and to perform 3-D field-scale simulations to evaluate the impact of uncertainties in the fracture and matrix properties on surfactant alkaline and hot water floods.« less

A new mechanistic growth model for simultaneous determination of lag phase duration and exponential growth rate and a new Belehdradek-type model for evaluating the effect of temperature on growth rate

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A new mechanistic growth model was developed to describe microbial growth under isothermal conditions. The new mathematical model was derived from the basic observation of bacterial growth that may include lag, exponential, and stationary phases. With this model, the lag phase duration and exponen...

Evaluating a common semi-mechanistic mathematical model of gene-regulatory networks

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Modeling and simulation of gene-regulatory networks (GRNs) has become an important aspect of modern systems biology investigations into mechanisms underlying gene regulation. A key challenge in this area is the automated inference (reverse-engineering) of dynamic, mechanistic GRN models from gene expression time-course data. Common mathematical formalisms for representing such models capture two aspects simultaneously within a single parameter: (1) Whether or not a gene is regulated, and if so, the type of regulator (activator or repressor), and (2) the strength of influence of the regulator (if any) on the target or effector gene. To accommodate both roles, "generous" boundaries or limits for possible values of this parameter are commonly allowed in the reverse-engineering process. This approach has several important drawbacks. First, in the absence of good guidelines, there is no consensus on what limits are reasonable. Second, because the limits may vary greatly among different reverse-engineering experiments, the concrete values obtained for the models may differ considerably, and thus it is difficult to compare models. Third, if high values are chosen as limits, the search space of the model inference process becomes very large, adding unnecessary computational load to the already complex reverse-engineering process. In this study, we demonstrate that restricting the limits to the [−1, +1] interval is sufficient to represent the essential features of GRN systems and offers a reduction of the search space without loss of quality in the resulting models. To show this, we have carried out reverse-engineering studies on data generated from artificial and experimentally determined from real GRN systems. PMID:26356485

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A MECHANISTIC GROUND SPRAYER MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

In the last ten years the Spray Drift Task Force (SDTF), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), USDA Agricultural Research Service, and USDA Forest Service cooperated in the refinement and evaluation of a mechanistically-based aerial spray model (contained within AGDISP and ...

Edge Fracture in Complex Fluids.

PubMed

Hemingway, Ewan J; Kusumaatmaja, Halim; Fielding, Suzanne M

2017-07-14

We study theoretically the edge fracture instability in sheared complex fluids, by means of linear stability analysis and direct nonlinear simulations. We derive an exact analytical expression for the onset of edge fracture in terms of the shear-rate derivative of the fluid's second normal stress difference, the shear-rate derivative of the shear stress, the jump in shear stress across the interface between the fluid and the outside medium (usually air), the surface tension of that interface, and the rheometer gap size. We provide a full mechanistic understanding of the edge fracture instability, carefully validated against our simulations. These findings, which are robust with respect to choice of rheological constitutive model, also suggest a possible route to mitigating edge fracture, potentially allowing experimentalists to achieve and accurately measure flows stronger than hitherto possible.

Predicted impacts of climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation due to climate change are expected to alter the spatial distribution of malaria transmission. This is especially true in West Africa, where malaria prevalence follows the current north-south gradients in temperature and precipitation. We assess the skill of GCMs at simulating past and present climate in West Africa in order to select the most credible climate predictions for the periods 2030-2060 and 2070-2100. We then use the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS), a mechanistic model of malaria transmission, to translate the predicted changes in climate into predicted changes availability of mosquito breeding sites, mosquito populations, and malaria prevalence. We investigate the role of acquired immunity in determining a population's response to changes in exposure to the malaria parasite.

Predictive and mechanistic multivariate linear regression models for reaction development

PubMed Central

Santiago, Celine B.; Guo, Jing-Yao

2018-01-01

Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR) models utilizing computationally-derived and empirically-derived physical organic molecular descriptors are described in this review. Several reports demonstrating the effectiveness of this methodological approach towards reaction optimization and mechanistic interrogation are discussed. A detailed protocol to access quantitative and predictive MLR models is provided as a guide for model development and parameter analysis. PMID:29719711

Combining experimental and simulation data of molecular processes via augmented Markov models.

PubMed

Olsson, Simon; Wu, Hao; Paul, Fabian; Clementi, Cecilia; Noé, Frank

2017-08-01

Accurate mechanistic description of structural changes in biomolecules is an increasingly important topic in structural and chemical biology. Markov models have emerged as a powerful way to approximate the molecular kinetics of large biomolecules while keeping full structural resolution in a divide-and-conquer fashion. However, the accuracy of these models is limited by that of the force fields used to generate the underlying molecular dynamics (MD) simulation data. Whereas the quality of classical MD force fields has improved significantly in recent years, remaining errors in the Boltzmann weights are still on the order of a few [Formula: see text], which may lead to significant discrepancies when comparing to experimentally measured rates or state populations. Here we take the view that simulations using a sufficiently good force-field sample conformations that are valid but have inaccurate weights, yet these weights may be made accurate by incorporating experimental data a posteriori. To do so, we propose augmented Markov models (AMMs), an approach that combines concepts from probability theory and information theory to consistently treat systematic force-field error and statistical errors in simulation and experiment. Our results demonstrate that AMMs can reconcile conflicting results for protein mechanisms obtained by different force fields and correct for a wide range of stationary and dynamical observables even when only equilibrium measurements are incorporated into the estimation process. This approach constitutes a unique avenue to combine experiment and computation into integrative models of biomolecular structure and dynamics.

Solving Immunology?

PubMed Central

Vodovotz, Yoram; Xia, Ashley; Read, Elizabeth L.; Bassaganya-Riera, Josep; Hafler, David A.; Sontag, Eduardo; Wang, Jin; Tsang, John S.; Day, Judy D.; Kleinstein, Steven; Butte, Atul J.; Altman, Matthew C; Hammond, Ross; Sealfon, Stuart C.

2016-01-01

Emergent responses of the immune system result from integration of molecular and cellular networks over time and across multiple organs. High-content and high-throughput analysis technologies, concomitantly with data-driven and mechanistic modeling, hold promise for systematic interrogation of these complex pathways. However, connecting genetic variation and molecular mechanisms to individual phenotypes and health outcomes has proven elusive. Gaps remain in data, and disagreements persist about the value of mechanistic modeling for immunology. Here, we present the perspectives that emerged from the NIAID workshop “Complex Systems Science, Modeling and Immunity” and subsequent discussions regarding the potential synergy of high-throughput data acquisition, data-driven modeling and mechanistic modeling to define new mechanisms of immunological disease and to accelerate the translation of these insights into therapies. PMID:27986392

Dynamic modelling and parameter estimation of a hydraulic robot manipulator using a multi-objective genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montazeri, A.; West, C.; Monk, S. D.; Taylor, C. J.

2017-04-01

This paper concerns the problem of dynamic modelling and parameter estimation for a seven degree of freedom hydraulic manipulator. The laboratory example is a dual-manipulator mobile robotic platform used for research into nuclear decommissioning. In contrast to earlier control model-orientated research using the same machine, the paper develops a nonlinear, mechanistic simulation model that can subsequently be used to investigate physically meaningful disturbances. The second contribution is to optimise the parameters of the new model, i.e. to determine reliable estimates of the physical parameters of a complex robotic arm which are not known in advance. To address the nonlinear and non-convex nature of the problem, the research relies on the multi-objectivisation of an output error single-performance index. The developed algorithm utilises a multi-objective genetic algorithm (GA) in order to find a proper solution. The performance of the model and the GA is evaluated using both simulated (i.e. with a known set of 'true' parameters) and experimental data. Both simulation and experimental results show that multi-objectivisation has improved convergence of the estimated parameters compared to the single-objective output error problem formulation. This is achieved by integrating the validation phase inside the algorithm implicitly and exploiting the inherent structure of the multi-objective GA for this specific system identification problem.

Modeling the effects of ozone on soybean growth and yield.

PubMed

Kobayashi, K; Miller, J E; Flagler, R B; Heck, W W

1990-01-01

A simple mechanistic model was developed based on an existing growth model in order to address the mechanisms of the effects of ozone on growth and yield of soybean [Glycine max. (L.) Merr. 'Davis'] and interacting effects of other environmental stresses. The model simulates daily growth of soybean plants using environmental data including shortwave radiation, temperature, precipitation, irrigation and ozone concentration. Leaf growth, dry matter accumulation, water budget, nitrogen input and seed growth linked to senescence and abscission of leaves are described in the model. The effects of ozone are modeled as reduced photosynthate production and accelerated senescence. The model was applied to the open-top chamber experiments in which soybean plants were exposed to ozone under two levels of soil moisture regimes. After calibrating the model to the growth data and seed yield, goodness-of-fit of the model was tested. The model fitted well for top dry weight in the vegetative growth phase and also at maturity. The effect of ozone on seen yield was also described satisfactorily by the model. The simulation showed apparent interaction between the effect of ozone and soil moisture stress on the seed yield. The model revealed that further work is needed concerning the effect of ozone on the senescence process and the consequences of alteration of canopy microclimate by the open-top chambers.

A mechanistic model for spread of livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) within a pig herd

PubMed Central

Toft, Nils; Boklund, Anette; Espinosa-Gongora, Carmen; Græsbøll, Kaare; Larsen, Jesper; Halasa, Tariq

2017-01-01

Before an efficient control strategy for livestock-associated methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) in pigs can be decided upon, it is necessary to obtain a better understanding of how LA-MRSA spreads and persists within a pig herd, once it is introduced. We here present a mechanistic stochastic discrete-event simulation model for spread of LA-MRSA within a farrow-to-finish sow herd to aid in this. The model was individual-based and included three different disease compartments: susceptible, intermittent or persistent shedder of MRSA. The model was used for studying transmission dynamics and within-farm prevalence after different introductions of LA-MRSA into a farm. The spread of LA-MRSA throughout the farm mainly followed the movement of pigs. After spread of LA-MRSA had reached equilibrium, the prevalence of LA-MRSA shedders was predicted to be highest in the farrowing unit, independent of how LA-MRSA was introduced. LA-MRSA took longer to spread to the whole herd if introduced in the finisher stable, rather than by gilts in the mating stable. The more LA-MRSA positive animals introduced, the shorter time before the prevalence in the herd stabilised. Introduction of a low number of intermittently shedding pigs was predicted to frequently result in LA-MRSA fading out. The model is a potential decision support tool for assessments of short and long term consequences of proposed intervention strategies or surveillance options for LA-MRSA within pig herds. PMID:29182655

Effect of Zn2+ binding and enzyme active site on the transition state for RNA 2′-O-transphosphorylation interpreted through kinetic isotope effects

PubMed Central

Chen, Haoyuan; Piccirilli, Joseph A.; Harris, Michael E.; York, Darrin M.

2016-01-01

Divalent metal ions, due to their ability to stabilize high concentrations of negative charge, are important for RNA folding and catalysis. Detailed models derived from the structures and kinetics of enzymes and from computational simulations have been developed. However, in most cases the specific catalytic modes involving metal ions and their mechanistic roles and effects on transition state structures remains controversial. Valuable information about the nature of the transition state is provided by measurement of kinetic isotope effects (KIEs). However, KIEs reflect changes in all bond vibrational modes that differ between the ground state and transition state. QM calculations are therefore essential for developing structural models of the transition state and evaluating mechanistic alternatives. Herein, we present computational models for Zn2+ binding to RNA 2′O-transphosphorylation reaction models that aid in the interpretation of KIE experiments. Different Zn2+ binding modes produce distinct KIE signatures, and one binding mode involving two zinc ions is in close agreement with KIEs measured for non-enzymatic catalysis by Zn2+ aquo ions alone. Interestingly, the KIE signatures in this specific model are also very close to those in RNase A catalysis. These results allow a quantitative connection to be made between experimental KIE measurements and transition state structure and bonding, and provide insight into RNA 2′O-transphosphorylation reactions catalyzed by metal ions and enzymes. PMID:25812974

Multiscale Cancer Modeling

PubMed Central

Macklin, Paul; Cristini, Vittorio

2013-01-01

Simulating cancer behavior across multiple biological scales in space and time, i.e., multiscale cancer modeling, is increasingly being recognized as a powerful tool to refine hypotheses, focus experiments, and enable more accurate predictions. A growing number of examples illustrate the value of this approach in providing quantitative insight on the initiation, progression, and treatment of cancer. In this review, we introduce the most recent and important multiscale cancer modeling works that have successfully established a mechanistic link between different biological scales. Biophysical, biochemical, and biomechanical factors are considered in these models. We also discuss innovative, cutting-edge modeling methods that are moving predictive multiscale cancer modeling toward clinical application. Furthermore, because the development of multiscale cancer models requires a new level of collaboration among scientists from a variety of fields such as biology, medicine, physics, mathematics, engineering, and computer science, an innovative Web-based infrastructure is needed to support this growing community. PMID:21529163

A dynamical model for describing behavioural interventions for weight loss and body composition change

PubMed Central

Navarro-Barrientos, J.-Emeterio; Rivera, Daniel E.; Collins, Linda M.

2011-01-01

We present a dynamical model incorporating both physiological and psychological factors that predicts changes in body mass and composition during the course of a behavioral intervention for weight loss. The model consists of a three-compartment energy balance integrated with a mechanistic psychological model inspired by the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The latter describes how important variables in a behavioural intervention can influence healthy eating habits and increased physical activity over time. The novelty of the approach lies in representing the behavioural intervention as a dynamical system, and the integration of the psychological and energy balance models. Two simulation scenarios are presented that illustrate how the model can improve the understanding of how changes in intervention components and participant differences affect outcomes. Consequently, the model can be used to inform behavioural scientists in the design of optimised interventions for weight loss and body composition change. PMID:21673826

Dynamic Modeling of Yield and Particle Size Distribution in Continuous Bayer Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenson, Jerry L.; Kapraun, Chris

Process engineers at Alcoa's Point Comfort refinery are using a dynamic model of the Bayer precipitation area to evaluate options in operating strategies. The dynamic model, a joint development effort between Point Comfort and the Alcoa Technical Center, predicts process yields, particle size distributions and occluded soda levels for various flowsheet configurations of the precipitation and classification circuit. In addition to rigorous heat, material and particle population balances, the model includes mechanistic kinetic expressions for particle growth and agglomeration and semi-empirical kinetics for nucleation and attrition. The kinetic parameters have been tuned to Point Comfort's operating data, with excellent matches between the model results and plant data. The model is written for the ACSL dynamic simulation program with specifically developed input/output graphical user interfaces to provide a user-friendly tool. Features such as a seed charge controller enhance the model's usefulness for evaluating operating conditions and process control approaches.

20170312 - Computer Simulation of Developmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rationale: Recent progress in systems toxicology and synthetic biology have paved the way to new thinking about in vitro/in silico modeling of developmental processes and toxicities, both for embryological and reproductive impacts. Novel in vitro platforms such as 3D organotypic culture models, engineered microscale tissues and complex microphysiological systems (MPS), together with computational models and computer simulation of tissue dynamics, lend themselves to a integrated testing strategies for predictive toxicology. As these emergent methodologies continue to evolve, they must be integrally tied to maternal/fetal physiology and toxicity of the developing individual across early lifestage transitions, from fertilization to birth, through puberty and beyond. Scope: This symposium will focus on how the novel technology platforms can help now and in the future, with in vitro/in silico modeling of complex biological systems for developmental and reproductive toxicity issues, and translating systems models into integrative testing strategies. The symposium is based on three main organizing principles: (1) that novel in vitro platforms with human cells configured in nascent tissue architectures with a native microphysiological environments yield mechanistic understanding of developmental and reproductive impacts of drug/chemical exposures; (2) that novel in silico platforms with high-throughput screening (HTS) data, biologically-inspired computational models of

Computer Simulation of Developmental Processes and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rationale: Recent progress in systems toxicology and synthetic biology have paved the way to new thinking about in vitro/in silico modeling of developmental processes and toxicities, both for embryological and reproductive impacts. Novel in vitro platforms such as 3D organotypic culture models, engineered microscale tissues and complex microphysiological systems (MPS), together with computational models and computer simulation of tissue dynamics, lend themselves to a integrated testing strategies for predictive toxicology. As these emergent methodologies continue to evolve, they must be integrally tied to maternal/fetal physiology and toxicity of the developing individual across early lifestage transitions, from fertilization to birth, through puberty and beyond. Scope: This symposium will focus on how the novel technology platforms can help now and in the future, with in vitro/in silico modeling of complex biological systems for developmental and reproductive toxicity issues, and translating systems models into integrative testing strategies. The symposium is based on three main organizing principles: (1) that novel in vitro platforms with human cells configured in nascent tissue architectures with a native microphysiological environments yield mechanistic understanding of developmental and reproductive impacts of drug/chemical exposures; (2) that novel in silico platforms with high-throughput screening (HTS) data, biologically-inspired computational models of

PROPOSED SUITE OF MODELS FOR ESTIMATING DOSE RESULTING FROM EXPOSURES BY THE DERMAL ROUTE

EPA Science Inventory

Recent risk assessment guidance emphasizes consideration of mechanistic factors for influencing disposition of a toxicant. To incorporate mechanistic information into risk assessment, a suite of models is proposed for use in characterizing and quantifying dosimetry of toxic age...

Toward a Broader Perspective in the Evolutionism-Creationism Debate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strahler, Arthur N.

1983-01-01

Examines creationism/evolution debate in context of philosophy using ontological models in which reality is assigned to one or both natural or transnatural (supernatural) realms. The six models (theistic-teleological dualism; deistic-mechanistic dualism; fundamentalist creationism; atheistic monism; theistic monism; mechanistic monism) deal with…

Integration of QSAR and SAR methods for the mechanistic interpretation of predictive models for carcinogenicity

PubMed Central

Fjodorova, Natalja; Novič, Marjana

2012-01-01

The knowledge-based Toxtree expert system (SAR approach) was integrated with the statistically based counter propagation artificial neural network (CP ANN) model (QSAR approach) to contribute to a better mechanistic understanding of a carcinogenicity model for non-congeneric chemicals using Dragon descriptors and carcinogenic potency for rats as a response. The transparency of the CP ANN algorithm was demonstrated using intrinsic mapping technique specifically Kohonen maps. Chemical structures were represented by Dragon descriptors that express the structural and electronic features of molecules such as their shape and electronic surrounding related to reactivity of molecules. It was illustrated how the descriptors are correlated with particular structural alerts (SAs) for carcinogenicity with recognized mechanistic link to carcinogenic activity. Moreover, the Kohonen mapping technique enables one to examine the separation of carcinogens and non-carcinogens (for rats) within a family of chemicals with a particular SA for carcinogenicity. The mechanistic interpretation of models is important for the evaluation of safety of chemicals. PMID:24688639

BIOMAP A Daily Time Step, Mechanistic Model for the Study of Ecosystem Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, J. R.; Neilson, R. P.; Drapek, R. J.; Pitts, B. S.

2010-12-01

BIOMAP simulates competition between two Plant Functional Types (PFT) at any given point in the conterminous U.S. using a time series of daily temperature (mean, minimum, maximum), precipitation, humidity, light and nutrients, with PFT-specific rooting within a multi-layer soil. The model employs a 2-layer canopy biophysics, Farquhar photosynthesis, the Beer-Lambert Law for light attenuation and a mechanistic soil hydrology. In essence, BIOMAP is a re-built version of the biogeochemistry model, BIOME-BGC, into the form of the MAPSS biogeography model. Specific enhancements are: 1) the 2-layer canopy biophysics of Dolman (1993); 2) the unique MAPSS-based hydrology, which incorporates canopy evaporation, snow dynamics, infiltration and saturated and unsaturated percolation with ‘fast’ flow and base flow and a ‘tunable aquifer’ capacity, a metaphor of D’Arcy’s Law; and, 3) a unique MAPSS-based stomatal conductance algorithm, which simultaneously incorporates vapor pressure and soil water potential constraints, based on physiological information and many other improvements. Over small domains the PFTs can be parameterized as individual species to investigate fundamental vs. potential niche theory; while, at more coarse scales the PFTs can be rendered as more general functional groups. Since all of the model processes are intrinsically leaf to plot scale (physiology to PFT competition), it essentially has no ‘intrinsic’ scale and can be implemented on a grid of any size, taking on the characteristics defined by the homogeneous climate of each grid cell. Currently, the model is implemented on the VEMAP 1/2 degree, daily grid over the conterminous U.S. Although both the thermal and water-limited ecotones are dynamic, following climate variability, the PFT distributions remain fixed. Thus, the model is currently being fitted with a ‘reproduction niche’ to allow full dynamic operation as a Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). While global simulations of both climate and ecosystems must be done at coarse grid resolutions; smaller domains require higher resolution for the simulation of natural resource processes at the landscape scale and that of on-the-ground management practices. Via a combined multi-agency and private conservation effort we have implemented a Nested Scale Experiment (NeScE) that ranges from 1/2 degree resolution (global, ca. 50 km) to ca. 8km (North America) and 800 m (conterminous U.S.). Our first DGVM, MC1, has been implemented at all 3 scales. We are just beginning to implement BIOMAP into NeScE, with its unique features, and daily time step, as a counterpoint to MC1. We believe it will be more accurate at all resolutions providing better simulations of vegetation distribution, carbon balance, runoff, fire regimes and drought impacts.

Simulating polar bear energetics during a seasonal fast using a mechanistic model.

PubMed

Mathewson, Paul D; Porter, Warren P

2013-01-01

In this study we tested the ability of a mechanistic model (Niche Mapper™) to accurately model adult, non-denning polar bear (Ursus maritimus) energetics while fasting during the ice-free season in the western Hudson Bay. The model uses a steady state heat balance approach, which calculates the metabolic rate that will allow an animal to maintain its core temperature in its particular microclimate conditions. Predicted weight loss for a 120 day fast typical of the 1990s was comparable to empirical studies of the population, and the model was able to reach a heat balance at the target metabolic rate for the entire fast, supporting use of the model to explore the impacts of climate change on polar bears. Niche Mapper predicted that all but the poorest condition bears would survive a 120 day fast under current climate conditions. When the fast extended to 180 days, Niche Mapper predicted mortality of up to 18% for males. Our results illustrate how environmental conditions, variation in animal properties, and thermoregulation processes may impact survival during extended fasts because polar bears were predicted to require additional energetic expenditure for thermoregulation during a 180 day fast. A uniform 3°C temperature increase reduced male mortality during a 180 day fast from 18% to 15%. Niche Mapper explicitly links an animal's energetics to environmental conditions and thus can be a valuable tool to help inform predictions of climate-related population changes. Since Niche Mapper is a generic model, it can make energetic predictions for other species threatened by climate change.

Simulating Polar Bear Energetics during a Seasonal Fast Using a Mechanistic Model

PubMed Central

Mathewson, Paul D.; Porter, Warren P.

2013-01-01

In this study we tested the ability of a mechanistic model (Niche Mapper™) to accurately model adult, non-denning polar bear (Ursus maritimus) energetics while fasting during the ice-free season in the western Hudson Bay. The model uses a steady state heat balance approach, which calculates the metabolic rate that will allow an animal to maintain its core temperature in its particular microclimate conditions. Predicted weight loss for a 120 day fast typical of the 1990s was comparable to empirical studies of the population, and the model was able to reach a heat balance at the target metabolic rate for the entire fast, supporting use of the model to explore the impacts of climate change on polar bears. Niche Mapper predicted that all but the poorest condition bears would survive a 120 day fast under current climate conditions. When the fast extended to 180 days, Niche Mapper predicted mortality of up to 18% for males. Our results illustrate how environmental conditions, variation in animal properties, and thermoregulation processes may impact survival during extended fasts because polar bears were predicted to require additional energetic expenditure for thermoregulation during a 180 day fast. A uniform 3°C temperature increase reduced male mortality during a 180 day fast from 18% to 15%. Niche Mapper explicitly links an animal’s energetics to environmental conditions and thus can be a valuable tool to help inform predictions of climate-related population changes. Since Niche Mapper is a generic model, it can make energetic predictions for other species threatened by climate change. PMID:24019883

Remote sensing of plant-water relations: An overview and future perspectives.

PubMed

Damm, A; Paul-Limoges, E; Haghighi, E; Simmer, C; Morsdorf, F; Schneider, F D; van der Tol, C; Migliavacca, M; Rascher, U

2018-04-25

Vegetation is a highly dynamic component of the Earth surface and substantially alters the water cycle. Particularly the process of oxygenic plant photosynthesis determines vegetation connecting the water and carbon cycle and causing various interactions and feedbacks across Earth spheres. While vegetation impacts the water cycle, it reacts to changing water availability via functional, biochemical and structural responses. Unravelling the resulting complex feedbacks and interactions between the plant-water system and environmental change is essential for any modelling approaches and predictions, but still insufficiently understood due to currently missing observations. We hypothesize that an appropriate cross-scale monitoring of plant-water relations can be achieved by combined observational and modelling approaches. This paper reviews suitable remote sensing approaches to assess plant-water relations ranging from pure observational to combined observational-modelling approaches. We use a combined energy balance and radiative transfer model to assess the explanatory power of pure observational approaches focussing on plant parameters to estimate plant-water relations, followed by an outline for a more effective use of remote sensing by their integration into soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC) models. We apply a mechanistic model simulating water movement in the SPAC to reveal insight into the complexity of relations between soil, plant and atmospheric parameters, and thus plant-water relations. We conclude that future research should focus on strategies combining observations and mechanistic modelling to advance our knowledge on the interplay between the plant-water system and environmental change, e.g. through plant transpiration. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Towards predictive models of the human gut microbiome

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

The intestinal microbiota is an ecosystem susceptible to external perturbations such as dietary changes and antibiotic therapies. Mathematical models of microbial communities could be of great value in the rational design of microbiota-tailoring diets and therapies. Here, we discuss how advances in another field, engineering of microbial communities for wastewater treatment bioreactors, could inspire development of mechanistic mathematical models of the gut microbiota. We review the current state-of-the-art in bioreactor modeling and current efforts in modeling the intestinal microbiota. Mathematical modeling could benefit greatly from the deluge of data emerging from metagenomic studies, but data-driven approaches such as network inference that aim to predict microbiome dynamics without explicit mechanistic knowledge seem better suited to model these data. Finally, we discuss how the integration of microbiome shotgun sequencing and metabolic modeling approaches such as flux balance analysis may fulfill the promise of a mechanistic model of the intestinal microbiota. PMID:24727124

Position-specific isotope modeling of organic micropollutants transformations through different reaction pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Biao; Rolle, Massimo

2016-04-01

Organic compounds are produced in vast quantities for industrial and agricultural use, as well as for human and animal healthcare [1]. These chemicals and their metabolites are frequently detected at trace levels in fresh water environments where they undergo degradation via different reaction pathways. Compound specific stable isotope analysis (CSIA) is a valuable tool to identify such degradation pathways in different environmental systems. Recent advances in analytical techniques have promoted the fast development and implementation of multi-element CSIA. However, quantitative frameworks to evaluate multi-element stable isotope data and incorporating mechanistic information on the degradation processes [2,3] are still lacking. In this study we propose a mechanism-based modeling approach to simultaneously evaluate concentration as well as bulk and position-specific multi-element isotope evolution during the transformation of organic micropollutants. The model explicitly simulates position-specific isotopologues for those atoms that experience isotope effects and, thereby, provides a mechanistic description of isotope fractionation occurring at different molecular positions. We validate the proposed approach with the concentration and multi-element isotope data of three selected organic micropollutants: dichlorobenzamide (BAM), isoproturon (IPU) and diclofenac (DCF). The model precisely captures the dual element isotope trends characteristic of different reaction pathways and their range of variation consistent with observed multi-element (C, N) bulk isotope fractionation. The proposed approach can also be used as a tool to explore transformation pathways in scenarios for which position-specific isotope data are not yet available. [1] Schwarzenbach, R.P., Egli, T., Hofstetter, T.B., von Gunten, U., Wehrli, B., 2010. Global Water Pollution and Human Health. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-100809-125342. [2] Jin, B., Haderlein, S.B., Rolle, M., 2013. Integrated carbon and chlorine isotope modeling: Applications to chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons dechlorination. Environ. Sci. Technol. 47, 1443-1451. doi:10.1021/es304053h. [3] Jin, B., Rolle, M., 2014. Mechanistic approach to multi-element isotope modeling of organic contaminant degradation. Chemosphere 95, 131-139. doi:10.1016/j.chemosphere.2013.08.050.

Hybrid Modeling of Cell Signaling and Transcriptional Reprogramming and Its Application in C. elegans Development.

PubMed

Fertig, Elana J; Danilova, Ludmila V; Favorov, Alexander V; Ochs, Michael F

2011-01-01

Modeling of signal driven transcriptional reprogramming is critical for understanding of organism development, human disease, and cell biology. Many current modeling techniques discount key features of the biological sub-systems when modeling multiscale, organism-level processes. We present a mechanistic hybrid model, GESSA, which integrates a novel pooled probabilistic Boolean network model of cell signaling and a stochastic simulation of transcription and translation responding to a diffusion model of extracellular signals. We apply the model to simulate the well studied cell fate decision process of the vulval precursor cells (VPCs) in C. elegans, using experimentally derived rate constants wherever possible and shared parameters to avoid overfitting. We demonstrate that GESSA recovers (1) the effects of varying scaffold protein concentration on signal strength, (2) amplification of signals in expression, (3) the relative external ligand concentration in a known geometry, and (4) feedback in biochemical networks. We demonstrate that setting model parameters based on wild-type and LIN-12 loss-of-function mutants in C. elegans leads to correct prediction of a wide variety of mutants including partial penetrance of phenotypes. Moreover, the model is relatively insensitive to parameters, retaining the wild-type phenotype for a wide range of cell signaling rate parameters.

Marine biogeochemical influence on primary sea spray aerosol composition in the Southern Ocean: predictions from a mechanistic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCoy, D.; Burrows, S. M.; Elliott, S.; Frossard, A. A.; Russell, L. M.; Liu, X.; Ogunro, O. O.; Easter, R. C.; Rasch, P. J.

2014-12-01

Remote marine clouds, such as those over the Southern Ocean, are particularly sensitive to variations in the concentration and chemical composition of aerosols that serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Observational evidence indicates that the organic content of fine marine aerosol is greatly increased during the biologically active season near strong phytoplankton blooms in certain locations, while being nearly constant in other locations. We have recently developed a novel modeling framework that mechanistically links the organic fraction of submicron sea spray to ocean biogeochemistry (Burrows et al., in discussion, ACPD, 2014; Elliott et al., ERL, 2014). Because of its combination of large phytoplankton blooms and high wind speeds, the Southern Ocean is an ideal location for testing our understanding of the processes driving the enrichment of organics in sea spray aerosol. Comparison of the simulated OM fraction with satellite observations shows that OM fraction is a statistically significant predictor of cloud droplet number concentration over the Southern Ocean. This presentation will focus on predictions from our modeling framework for the Southern Ocean, specifically, the predicted geographic gradients and seasonal cycles in the aerosol organic matter and its functional group composition. The timing and location of a Southern Ocean field campaign will determine its utility in observing the effects of highly localized and seasonal phytoplankton blooms on aerosol composition and clouds. Reference cited: Burrows, S. M., Ogunro, O., Frossard, A. A., Russell, L. M., Rasch, P. J., and Elliott, S.: A physically-based framework for modelling the organic fractionation of sea spray aerosol from bubble film Langmuir equilibria, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 14, 5375-5443, doi:10.5194/acpd-14-5375-2014, 2014. Elliott, S., Burrows, S. M., Deal, C., Liu, X., Long, M., Ogunro, O., Russell, L. M., and Wingenter O.. "Prospects for simulating macromolecular surfactant chemistry at the ocean-atmosphere boundary." Environmental Research Letters 9, no. 6 (2014): 064012.

Upscaling of reaction rates in reactive transport using pore-scale reactive transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, H.; Dewers, T. A.; Arnold, B. W.; Major, J. R.; Eichhubl, P.; Srinivasan, S.

2013-12-01

Dissolved CO2 during geological CO2 storage may react with minerals in fractured rocks, confined aquifers, or faults, resulting in mineral precipitation and dissolution. The overall rate of reaction can be affected by coupled processes among hydrodynamics, transport, and reactions at the (sub) pore-scale. In this research pore-scale modeling of coupled fluid flow, reactive transport, and heterogeneous reaction at the mineral surface is applied to account for permeability alterations caused by precipitation-induced pore-blocking. This work is motivated by the observed CO2 seeps from a natural analog to geologic CO2 sequestration at Crystal Geyser, Utah. A key observation is the lateral migration of CO2 seep sites at a scale of ~ 100 meters over time. A pore-scale model provides fundamental mechanistic explanations of how calcite precipitation alters flow paths by pore plugging under different geochemical compositions and pore configurations. In addition, response function of reaction rates will be constructed from pore-scale simulations which account for a range of reaction regimes characterized by the Damkohler and Peclet numbers. Newly developed response functions will be used in a continuum scale model that may account for large-scale phenomena mimicking lateral migration of surface CO2 seeps. Comparison of field observations and simulations results will provide mechanistic explanations of the lateral migration and enhance our understanding of subsurface processes associated with the CO2 injection. This work is supported as part of the Center for Frontiers of Subsurface Energy Security, an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences under Award Number DE-SC0001114. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

An Emphasis on Perception: Teaching Image Formation Using a Mechanistic Model of Vision.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Sue; And Others

An effective way to teach the concept of image is to give students a model of human vision which incorporates a simple mechanism of depth perception. In this study two almost identical versions of a curriculum in geometrical optics were created. One used a mechanistic, interpretive eye model, and in the other the eye was modeled as a passive,…

Development of a Mechanistically Based, Basin-Scale Stream Temperature Model: Applications to Cumulative Effects Modeling

Treesearch

Douglas Allen; William Dietrich; Peter Baker; Frank Ligon; Bruce Orr

2007-01-01

We describe a mechanistically-based stream model, BasinTemp, which assumes that direct shortwave radiation moderated by riparian and topographic shading, controls stream temperatures during the hottest part of the year. The model was developed to support a temperature TMDL for the South Fork Eel basin in Northern California and couples a GIS and a 1-D energy balance...

Mechanistic, Mathematical Model to Predict the Dynamics of Tissue Genesis in Bone Defects via Mechanical Feedback and Mediation of Biochemical Factors

PubMed Central

Moore, Shannon R.; Saidel, Gerald M.; Knothe, Ulf; Knothe Tate, Melissa L.

2014-01-01

The link between mechanics and biology in the generation and the adaptation of bone has been well studied in context of skeletal development and fracture healing. Yet, the prediction of tissue genesis within - and the spatiotemporal healing of - postnatal defects, necessitates a quantitative evaluation of mechano-biological interactions using experimental and clinical parameters. To address this current gap in knowledge, this study aims to develop a mechanistic mathematical model of tissue genesis using bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) to represent of a class of factors that may coordinate bone healing. Specifically, we developed a mechanistic, mathematical model to predict the dynamics of tissue genesis by periosteal progenitor cells within a long bone defect surrounded by periosteum and stabilized via an intramedullary nail. The emergent material properties and mechanical environment associated with nascent tissue genesis influence the strain stimulus sensed by progenitor cells within the periosteum. Using a mechanical finite element model, periosteal surface strains are predicted as a function of emergent, nascent tissue properties. Strains are then input to a mechanistic mathematical model, where mechanical regulation of BMP-2 production mediates rates of cellular proliferation, differentiation and tissue production, to predict healing outcomes. A parametric approach enables the spatial and temporal prediction of endochondral tissue regeneration, assessed as areas of cartilage and mineralized bone, as functions of radial distance from the periosteum and time. Comparing model results to histological outcomes from two previous studies of periosteum-mediated bone regeneration in a common ovine model, it was shown that mechanistic models incorporating mechanical feedback successfully predict patterns (spatial) and trends (temporal) of bone tissue regeneration. The novel model framework presented here integrates a mechanistic feedback system based on the mechanosensitivity of periosteal progenitor cells, which allows for modeling and prediction of tissue regeneration on multiple length and time scales. Through combination of computational, physical and engineering science approaches, the model platform provides a means to test new hypotheses in silico and to elucidate conditions conducive to endogenous tissue genesis. Next generation models will serve to unravel intrinsic differences in bone genesis by endochondral and intramembranous mechanisms. PMID:24967742

INCORPORATION OF MECHANISTIC INFORMATION IN THE ARSENIC PBPK MODEL DEVELOPMENT PROCESS

EPA Science Inventory

INCORPORATING MECHANISTIC INSIGHTS IN A PBPK MODEL FOR ARSENIC

Elaina M. Kenyon, Michael F. Hughes, Marina V. Evans, David J. Thomas, U.S. EPA; Miroslav Styblo, University of North Carolina; Michael Easterling, Analytical Sciences, Inc.

A physiologically based phar...

Growing a market economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Basu, N.; Pryor, R.J.

1997-09-01

This report presents a microsimulation model of a transition economy. Transition is defined as the process of moving from a state-enterprise economy to a market economy. The emphasis is on growing a market economy starting from basic microprinciples. The model described in this report extends and modifies the capabilities of Aspen, a new agent-based model that is being developed at Sandia National Laboratories on a massively parallel Paragon computer. Aspen is significantly different from traditional models of the economy. Aspen`s emphasis on disequilibrium growth paths, its analysis based on evolution and emergent behavior rather than on a mechanistic view ofmore » society, and its use of learning algorithms to simulate the behavior of some agents rather than an assumption of perfect rationality make this model well-suited for analyzing economic variables of interest from transition economies. Preliminary results from several runs of the model are included.« less

Recurrent sublethal warming reduces embryonic survival, inhibits juvenile growth, and alters species distribution projections under climate change.

PubMed

Carlo, Michael A; Riddell, Eric A; Levy, Ofir; Sears, Michael W

2018-01-01

The capacity to tolerate climate change often varies across ontogeny in organisms with complex life cycles. Recently developed species distribution models incorporate traits across life stages; however, these life-cycle models primarily evaluate effects of lethal change. Here, we examine impacts of recurrent sublethal warming on development and survival in ecological projections of climate change. We reared lizard embryos in the laboratory under temperature cycles that simulated contemporary conditions and warming scenarios. We also artificially warmed natural nests to mimic laboratory treatments. In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influence species ranges due to effects on survivorship. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: A comparison of a plot- and a global-scale ecosystem model to identify process-based uncertainties

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clein, Joy S.; Kwiatkowski, B.L.; McGuire, A.D.; Hobbie, J.E.; Rastetter, E.B.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.

2000-01-01

We are developing a process-based modelling approach to investigate how carbon (C) storage of tundra across the entire Arctic will respond to projected climate change. To implement the approach, the processes that are least understood, and thus have the most uncertainty, need to be identified and studied. In this paper, we identified a key uncertainty by comparing the responses of C storage in tussock tundra at one site between the simulations of two models - one a global-scale ecosystem model (Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, TEM) and one a plot-scale ecosystem model (General Ecosystem Model, GEM). The simulations spanned the historical period (1921-94) and the projected period (1995-2100). In the historical period, the model simulations of net primary production (NPP) differed in their sensitivity to variability in climate. However, the long-term changes in C storage were similar in both simulations, because the dynamics of heterotrophic respiration (RH) were similar in both models. In contrast, the responses of C storage in the two model simulations diverged during the projected period. In the GEM simulation for this period, increases in RH tracked increases in NPP, whereas in the TEM simulation increases in RH lagged increases in NPP. We were able to make the long-term C dynamics of the two simulations agree by parameterizing TEM to the fast soil C pools of GEM. We concluded that the differences between the long-term C dynamics of the two simulations lay in modelling the role of the recalcitrant soil C. These differences, which reflect an incomplete understanding of soil processes, lead to quite different projections of the response of pan-Arctic C storage to global change. For example, the reference parameterization of TEM resulted in an estimate of cumulative C storage of 2032 g C m-2 for moist tundra north of 50??N, which was substantially higher than the 463 g C m-2 estimated for a parameterization of fast soil C dynamics. This uncertainty in the depiction of the role of recalcitrant soil C in long-term ecosystem C dynamics resulted from our incomplete understanding of controls over C and N transformations in Arctic soils. Mechanistic studies of these issues are needed to improve our ability to model the response of Arctic ecosystems to global change.

Forward modeling of tree-ring data: a case study with a global network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breitenmoser, P. D.; Frank, D.; Brönnimann, S.

2012-04-01

Information derived from tree-rings is one of the most powerful tools presently available for studying past climatic variability as well as identifying fundamental relationships between tree-growth and climate. Climate reconstructions are typically performed by extending linear relationships, established during the overlapping period of instrumental and climate proxy archives into the past. Such analyses, however, are limited by methodological assumptions, including stationarity and linearity of the climate-proxy relationship. We investigate climate and tree-ring data using the Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite (VS-Lite) forward model of tree-ring width formation to examine the relations among actual tree growth and climate (as inferred from the simulated chronologies) to reconstruct past climate variability. The VS-lite model has been shown to produce skill comparable to that achieved using classical dendrochronological statistical modeling techniques when applied on simulations of a network of North American tree-ring chronologies. Although the detailed mechanistic processes such as photosynthesis, storage, or cell processes are not modeled directly, the net effect of the dominating nonlinear climatic controls on tree-growth are implemented into the model by the principle of limiting factors and threshold growth response functions. The VS-lite model requires as inputs only latitude, monthly mean temperature and monthly accumulated precipitation. Hence, this simple, process-based model enables ring-width simulation at any location where monthly climate records exist. In this study, we analyse the growth response of simulated tree-rings to monthly climate conditions obtained from the 20th century reanalysis project back to 1871. These simulated tree-ring chronologies are compared to the climate-driven variability in worldwide observed tree-ring chronologies from the International Tree Ring Database. Results point toward the suitability of the relationship among actual tree growth and climate (as inferred from the simulated chronologies) for use in global palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Using perceptual cues for brake response to a lead vehicle: Comparing threshold and accumulator models of visual looming.

PubMed

Xue, Qingwan; Markkula, Gustav; Yan, Xuedong; Merat, Natasha

2018-06-18

Previous studies have shown the effect of a lead vehicle's speed, deceleration rate and headway distance on drivers' brake response times. However, how drivers perceive this information and use it to determine when to apply braking is still not quite clear. To better understand the underlying mechanisms, a driving simulator experiment was performed where each participant experienced nine deceleration scenarios. Previously reported effects of the lead vehicle's speed, deceleration rate and headway distance on brake response time were firstly verified in this paper, using a multilevel model. Then, as an alternative to measures of speed, deceleration rate and distance, two visual looming-based metrics (angular expansion rate θ˙ of the lead vehicle on the driver's retina, and inverse tau τ -1 , the ratio between θ˙ and the optical size θ), considered to be more in line with typical human psycho-perceptual responses, were adopted to quantify situation urgency. These metrics were used in two previously proposed mechanistic models predicting brake onset: either when looming surpasses a threshold, or when the accumulated evidence (looming and other cues) reaches a threshold. Results showed that the looming threshold model did not capture the distribution of brake response time. However, regardless of looming metric, the accumulator models fitted the distribution of brake response times better than the pure threshold models. Accumulator models, including brake lights, provided a better model fit than looming-only versions. For all versions of the mechanistic models, models using τ -1 as the measure of looming fitted better than those using θ˙, indicating that the visual cues drivers used during rear-end collision avoidance may be more close to τ -1 . Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A discrete model of Drosophila eggshell patterning reveals cell-autonomous and juxtacrine effects.

PubMed

Fauré, Adrien; Vreede, Barbara M I; Sucena, Elio; Chaouiya, Claudine

2014-03-01

The Drosophila eggshell constitutes a remarkable system for the study of epithelial patterning, both experimentally and through computational modeling. Dorsal eggshell appendages arise from specific regions in the anterior follicular epithelium that covers the oocyte: two groups of cells expressing broad (roof cells) bordered by rhomboid expressing cells (floor cells). Despite the large number of genes known to participate in defining these domains and the important modeling efforts put into this developmental system, key patterning events still lack a proper mechanistic understanding and/or genetic basis, and the literature appears to conflict on some crucial points. We tackle these issues with an original, discrete framework that considers single-cell models that are integrated to construct epithelial models. We first build a phenomenological model that reproduces wild type follicular epithelial patterns, confirming EGF and BMP signaling input as sufficient to establish the major features of this patterning system within the anterior domain. Importantly, this simple model predicts an instructive juxtacrine signal linking the roof and floor domains. To explore this prediction, we define a mechanistic model that integrates the combined effects of cellular genetic networks, cell communication and network adjustment through developmental events. Moreover, we focus on the anterior competence region, and postulate that early BMP signaling participates with early EGF signaling in its specification. This model accurately simulates wild type pattern formation and is able to reproduce, with unprecedented level of precision and completeness, various published gain-of-function and loss-of-function experiments, including perturbations of the BMP pathway previously seen as conflicting results. The result is a coherent model built upon rules that may be generalized to other epithelia and developmental systems.

Using a whole farm model to determine the impacts of mating management on the profitability of pasture-based dairy farms.

PubMed

Beukes, P C; Burke, C R; Levy, G; Tiddy, R M

2010-08-01

An approach to assessing likely impacts of altering reproductive performance on productivity and profitability in pasture-based dairy farms is described. The basis is the development of a whole farm model (WFM) that simulates the entire farm system and holistically links multiple physical performance factors to profitability. The WFM consists of a framework that links a mechanistic cow model, a pasture model, a crop model, management policies and climate. It simulates individual cows and paddocks, and runs on a day time-step. The WFM was upgraded to include reproductive modeling capability using reference tables and empirical equations describing published relationships between cow factors, physiology and mating management. It predicts reproductive status at any time point for individual cows within a modeled herd. The performance of six commercial pasture-based dairy farms was simulated for the period of 12 months beginning 1 June 2005 (05/06 year) to evaluate the accuracy of the model by comparison with actual outcomes. The model predicted most key performance indicators within an acceptable range of error (residual<10% of observed). The evaluated WFM was then used for the six farms to estimate the profitability of changes in farm "set-up" (farm conditions at the start of the farming year on 1 June) and mating management from 05/06 to 06/07 year. Among the six farms simulated, the 4-week calving rate emerged as an important set-up factor influencing profitability, while reproductive performance during natural bull mating was identified as an area with the greatest opportunity for improvement. The WFM presents utility to explore alternative management strategies to predict likely outcomes to proposed changes to a pasture-based farm system. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Hydrology of Malaria: Model Development and Application to a Sahelian Village

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, A.; Duchemin, J.; Eltahir, E. A.

2008-12-01

We present a coupled hydrology and entomology model for the mechanistic simulation of local-scale response of malaria transmission to hydrological and climatological determinants in semi-arid, desert fringe environments. The model is applied to the Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, to predict interannual variability in malaria vector mosquito populations which lead to variations in malaria transmission. Using a high-resolution, small-scale distributed hydrology model that incorporates remotely-sensed data for land cover and topography, we simulate the formation and persistence of the pools constituting the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquitoes, the principal regional malaria vector mosquitoes. An agent-based mosquito population model is coupled to the distributed hydrology model, with aquatic stage and adult stage components. For each individual adult mosquito, the model tracks attributes relevant to population dynamics and malaria transmission, which are updated as mosquitoes interact with their environment, humans, and animals. Weekly field observations were made in 2005 and 2006. The model reproduces mosquito population variability at seasonal and interannual time scales, and highlights individual pool persistence as a dominant control. Future developments to the presented model can be used in the evaluation of impacts of climate change on malaria, as well as the a priori evaluation of environmental management-based interventions.

Nonlinear Porous Diffusion Modeling of Hydrophilic Ionic Agrochemicals in Astomatous Plant Cuticle Aqueous Pores: A Mechanistic Approach.

PubMed

Tredenick, Eloise C; Farrell, Troy W; Forster, W Alison; Psaltis, Steven T P

2017-01-01

The agricultural industry requires improved efficacy of sprays being applied to crops and weeds in order to reduce their environmental impact and deliver improved financial returns. Enhanced foliar uptake is one means of improving efficacy. The plant leaf cuticle is known to be the main barrier to diffusion of agrochemicals within the leaf. The usefulness of a mathematical model to simulate uptake of agrochemicals in plant cuticles has been noted previously in the literature, as the results of each uptake experiment are specific to each formulation of active ingredient, plant species and environmental conditions. In this work we develop a mathematical model and numerical simulation for the uptake of hydrophilic ionic agrochemicals through aqueous pores in plant cuticles. We propose a novel, nonlinear, porous diffusion model for ionic agrochemicals in isolated cuticles, which extends simple diffusion through the incorporation of parameters capable of simulating: plant species variations, evaporation of surface droplet solutions, ion binding effects on the cuticle surface and swelling of the aqueous pores with water. We validate our theoretical results against appropriate experimental data, discuss the key sensitivities in the model and relate theoretical predictions to appropriate physical mechanisms. Major influencing factors have been found to be cuticle structure, including tortuosity and density of the aqueous pores, and to a lesser extent humidity and cuticle surface ion binding effects.

Nonlinear Porous Diffusion Modeling of Hydrophilic Ionic Agrochemicals in Astomatous Plant Cuticle Aqueous Pores: A Mechanistic Approach

PubMed Central

Tredenick, Eloise C.; Farrell, Troy W.; Forster, W. Alison; Psaltis, Steven T. P.

2017-01-01

The agricultural industry requires improved efficacy of sprays being applied to crops and weeds in order to reduce their environmental impact and deliver improved financial returns. Enhanced foliar uptake is one means of improving efficacy. The plant leaf cuticle is known to be the main barrier to diffusion of agrochemicals within the leaf. The usefulness of a mathematical model to simulate uptake of agrochemicals in plant cuticles has been noted previously in the literature, as the results of each uptake experiment are specific to each formulation of active ingredient, plant species and environmental conditions. In this work we develop a mathematical model and numerical simulation for the uptake of hydrophilic ionic agrochemicals through aqueous pores in plant cuticles. We propose a novel, nonlinear, porous diffusion model for ionic agrochemicals in isolated cuticles, which extends simple diffusion through the incorporation of parameters capable of simulating: plant species variations, evaporation of surface droplet solutions, ion binding effects on the cuticle surface and swelling of the aqueous pores with water. We validate our theoretical results against appropriate experimental data, discuss the key sensitivities in the model and relate theoretical predictions to appropriate physical mechanisms. Major influencing factors have been found to be cuticle structure, including tortuosity and density of the aqueous pores, and to a lesser extent humidity and cuticle surface ion binding effects. PMID:28539930

Human Pyruvate Dehydrogenase Complex E2 and E3BP Core Subunits: New Models and Insights from Molecular Dynamics Simulations.

PubMed

Hezaveh, Samira; Zeng, An-Ping; Jandt, Uwe

2016-05-19

Targeted manipulation and exploitation of beneficial properties of multienzyme complexes, especially for the design of novel and efficiently structured enzymatic reaction cascades, require a solid model understanding of mechanistic principles governing the structure and functionality of the complexes. This type of system-level and quantitative knowledge has been very scarce thus far. We utilize the human pyruvate dehydrogenase complex (hPDC) as a versatile template to conduct corresponding studies. Here we present new homology models of the core subunits of the hPDC, namely E2 and E3BP, as the first time effort to elucidate the assembly of hPDC core based on molecular dynamic simulation. New models of E2 and E3BP were generated and validated at atomistic level for different properties of the proteins. The results of the wild type dimer simulations showed a strong hydrophobic interaction between the C-terminal and the hydrophobic pocket which is the main driving force in the intertrimer binding and the core self-assembly. On the contrary, the C-terminal truncated versions exhibited a drastic loss of hydrophobic interaction leading to a dimeric separation. This study represents a significant step toward a model-based understanding of structure and function of large multienzyme systems like PDC for developing highly efficient biocatalyst or bioreaction cascades.

Virtual Clinical Trial Toward Polytherapy Safety Assessment: Combination of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic-Based Modeling and Simulation Approach With Drug-Drug Interactions Involving Terfenadine as an Example.

PubMed

Wiśniowska, Barbara; Polak, Sebastian

2016-11-01

A Quantitative Systems Pharmacology approach was utilized to predict the cardiac consequences of drug-drug interaction (DDI) at the population level. The Simcyp in vitro-in vivo correlation and physiologically based pharmacokinetic platform was used to predict the pharmacokinetic profile of terfenadine following co-administration of the drug. Electrophysiological effects were simulated using the Cardiac Safety Simulator. The modulation of ion channel activity was dependent on the inhibitory potential of drugs on the main cardiac ion channels and a simulated free heart tissue concentration. ten Tusscher's human ventricular cardiomyocyte model was used to simulate the pseudo-ECG traces and further predict the pharmacodynamic consequences of DDI. Consistent with clinical observations, predicted plasma concentration profiles of terfenadine show considerable intra-subject variability with recorded C max values below 5 ng/mL for most virtual subjects. The pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic effects of inhibitors were predicted with reasonable accuracy. In all cases, a combination of the physiologically based pharmacokinetic and physiology-based pharmacodynamic models was able to differentiate between the terfenadine alone and terfenadine + inhibitor scenario. The range of QT prolongation was comparable in the clinical and virtual studies. The results indicate that mechanistic in vitro-in vivo correlation can be applied to predict the clinical effects of DDI even without comprehensive knowledge on all mechanisms contributing to the interaction. Copyright © 2016 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Functionally relevant climate variables for arid lands: Aclimatic water deficit approach for modelling desert shrub distributions

Treesearch

Thomas E. Dilts; Peter J. Weisberg; Camie M. Dencker; Jeanne C. Chambers

2015-01-01

We have three goals. (1) To develop a suite of functionally relevant climate variables for modelling vegetation distribution on arid and semi-arid landscapes of the Great Basin, USA. (2) To compare the predictive power of vegetation distribution models based on mechanistically proximate factors (water deficit variables) and factors that are more mechanistically removed...

Molecular dynamics study of ion transport through an open model of voltage-gated sodium channel.

PubMed

Li, Yang; Sun, Ruining; Liu, Huihui; Gong, Haipeng

2017-05-01

Voltage-gated sodium (Na V ) channels are critical in the signal transduction of excitable cells. In this work, we modeled the open conformation for the pore domain of a prokaryotic Na V channel (Na V Rh), and used molecular dynamics simulations to track the translocation of dozens of Na + ions through the channel in the presence of a physiological transmembrane ion concentration gradient and a transmembrane electrical field that was closer to the physiological one than previous studies. Channel conductance was then estimated from simulations on the wide-type and DEKA mutant of Na V Rh. Interestingly, the conductivity predicted from the DEKA mutant agrees well with experimental measurement on eukaryotic Na V 1.4 channel. Moreover, the wide-type and DEKA mutant of Na V Rh exhibited markedly distinct ion permeation patterns, which thus implies the mechanistic difference between prokaryotic and eukaryotic Na V channels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Free-Energy Landscape of the Dissolution of Gibbsite at High pH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Zhizhang; Kerisit, Sebastien N.; Stack, Andrew G.

The individual elementary reactions involved in the dissolution of a solid into solution remain mostly speculative due to a lack of suitable, direct experimental probes. In this regard, we have applied atomistic simulations to map the free energy landscape of the dissolution of gibbsite from a step edge, as a model of metal hydroxide dissolution. The overall reaction combines kink site formation and kink site propagation. Two individual reactions were found to be rate-limiting for kink site formation, that is, the displacement of Al from a step site to a ledge adatom site and its detachment from ledge/terrace adatom sitesmore » into the solution. As a result, a pool of mobile and labile Al adsorbed species, or adatoms, exists before the release of Al into solution. Because of the quasi-hexagonal symmetry of gibbsite, kink site propagation can occur in multiple directions. Overall, the simulation results will enable the development of microscopic mechanistic models of metal oxide dissolution.« less

Unravelling the physics of size-dependent dislocation-mediated plasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Awady, Jaafar A.

2015-01-01

Size-affected dislocation-mediated plasticity is important in a wide range of materials and technologies. Here we develop a generalized size-dependent dislocation-based model that predicts strength as a function of crystal/grain size and the dislocation density. Three-dimensional (3D) discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) simulations reveal the existence of a well-defined relationship between strength and dislocation microstructure at all length scales for both single crystals and polycrystalline materials. The results predict a transition from dislocation-source strengthening to forest-dominated strengthening at a size-dependent critical dislocation density. It is also shown that the Hall-Petch relationship can be physically interpreted by coupling with an appropriate kinetic equation of the evolution of the dislocation density in polycrystals. The model is shown to be in remarkable agreement with experiments. This work presents a micro-mechanistic framework to predict and interpret strength size-scale effects, and provides an avenue towards performing multiscale simulations without ad hoc assumptions.

The Combined Use of Correlative and Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Benefits Low Conservation Status Species.

PubMed

Rougier, Thibaud; Lassalle, Géraldine; Drouineau, Hilaire; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Faure, Thierry; Deffuant, Guillaume; Rochard, Eric; Lambert, Patrick

2015-01-01

Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can help forecast such range shift responses. For few species, both correlative and mechanistic SDMs were built, but allis shad (Alosa alosa), an endangered anadromous fish species, is one of them. The main purpose of this study was to provide a framework for joint analyses of correlative and mechanistic SDMs projections in order to strengthen conservation measures for species of conservation concern. Guidelines for joint representation and subsequent interpretation of models outputs were defined and applied. The present joint analysis was based on the novel mechanistic model GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution) which was parameterized on allis shad and then used to predict its future distribution along the European Atlantic coast under different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We then used a correlative SDM for this species to forecast its distribution across the same geographic area and under the same climate change scenarios. First, projections from correlative and mechanistic models provided congruent trends in probability of habitat suitability and population dynamics. This agreement was preferentially interpreted as referring to the species vulnerability to climate change. Climate change could not be accordingly listed as a major threat for allis shad. The congruence in predicted range limits between SDMs projections was the next point of interest. The difference, when noticed, required to deepen our understanding of the niche modelled by each approach. In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM. Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local adaptations to cold temperatures deserved more attention in terms of modelling, but further in conservation planning as well.

The Combined Use of Correlative and Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Benefits Low Conservation Status Species

PubMed Central

Rougier, Thibaud; Lassalle, Géraldine; Drouineau, Hilaire; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Faure, Thierry; Deffuant, Guillaume; Rochard, Eric; Lambert, Patrick

2015-01-01

Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can help forecast such range shift responses. For few species, both correlative and mechanistic SDMs were built, but allis shad (Alosa alosa), an endangered anadromous fish species, is one of them. The main purpose of this study was to provide a framework for joint analyses of correlative and mechanistic SDMs projections in order to strengthen conservation measures for species of conservation concern. Guidelines for joint representation and subsequent interpretation of models outputs were defined and applied. The present joint analysis was based on the novel mechanistic model GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution) which was parameterized on allis shad and then used to predict its future distribution along the European Atlantic coast under different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We then used a correlative SDM for this species to forecast its distribution across the same geographic area and under the same climate change scenarios. First, projections from correlative and mechanistic models provided congruent trends in probability of habitat suitability and population dynamics. This agreement was preferentially interpreted as referring to the species vulnerability to climate change. Climate change could not be accordingly listed as a major threat for allis shad. The congruence in predicted range limits between SDMs projections was the next point of interest. The difference, when noticed, required to deepen our understanding of the niche modelled by each approach. In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM. Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local adaptations to cold temperatures deserved more attention in terms of modelling, but further in conservation planning as well. PMID:26426280

Assessment of the impact of climate shifts on malaria transmission in the Sahel.

PubMed

Bomblies, Arne; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2009-09-01

Climate affects malaria transmission through a complex network of causative pathways. We seek to evaluate the impact of hypothetical climate change scenarios on malaria transmission in the Sahel by using a novel mechanistic, high spatial- and temporal-resolution coupled hydrology and agent-based entomology model. The hydrology model component resolves individual precipitation events and individual breeding pools. The impact of future potential climate shifts on the representative Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, is estimated by forcing the model of Banizoumbou environment with meteorological data from two locations along the north-south climatological gradient observed in the Sahel--both for warmer, drier scenarios from the north and cooler, wetter scenarios from the south. These shifts in climate represent hypothetical but historically realistic climate change scenarios. For Banizoumbou climatic conditions (latitude 13.54 N), a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions may dramatically increase mosquito abundance; however, our modeling results indicate that the increased malaria transmissibility is not simply proportional to the precipitation increase. The cooler, wetter conditions increase the length of the sporogonic cycle, dampening a large vectorial capacity increase otherwise brought about by increased mosquito survival and greater overall abundance. Furthermore, simulations varying rainfall event frequency demonstrate the importance of precipitation patterns, rather than simply average or time-integrated precipitation, as a controlling factor of these dynamics. Modeling results suggest that in addition to changes in temperature and total precipitation, changes in rainfall patterns are very important to predict changes in disease susceptibility resulting from climate shifts. The combined effect of these climate-shift-induced perturbations can be represented with the aid of a detailed mechanistic model.

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model.

PubMed

Shafer, Sarah L; Bartlein, Patrick J; Gray, Elizabeth M; Pelltier, Richard T

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0-58.0°N latitude by 136.6-103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070-2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Laboratory-scale experiments and numerical modeling of cosolvent flushing of multi-component NAPLs in saturated porous media.

PubMed

Agaoglu, Berken; Scheytt, Traugott; Copty, Nadim K

2012-10-01

This study examines the mechanistic processes governing multiphase flow of a water-cosolvent-NAPL system in saturated porous media. Laboratory batch and column flushing experiments were conducted to determine the equilibrium properties of pure NAPL and synthetically prepared NAPL mixtures as well as NAPL recovery mechanisms for different water-ethanol contents. The effect of contact time was investigated by considering different steady and intermittent flow velocities. A modified version of multiphase flow simulator (UTCHEM) was used to compare the multiphase model simulations with the column experiment results. The effect of employing different grid geometries (1D, 2D, 3D), heterogeneity and different initial NAPL saturation configurations was also examined in the model. It is shown that the change in velocity affects the mass transfer rate between phases as well as the ultimate NAPL recovery percentage. The experiments with low flow rate flushing of pure NAPL and the 3D UTCHEM simulations gave similar effluent concentrations and NAPL cumulative recoveries. Model simulations over-estimated NAPL recovery for high specific discharges and rate-limited mass transfer, suggesting a constant mass transfer coefficient for the entire flushing experiment may not be valid. When multi-component NAPLs are present, the dissolution rate of individual organic compounds (namely, toluene and benzene) into the ethanol-water flushing solution is found not to correlate with their equilibrium solubility values. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of an Artificial Stomach-Duodenum Reduced Gastric pH Dog Model for Formulation Principle Assessment and Mechanistic Performance Understanding.

PubMed

Lee, Chen-Ming; Luner, Paul E; Locke, Karen; Briggs, Katherine

2017-08-01

The objective of this study was to develop an artificial stomach-duodenum (ASD) dissolution model as an in vitro evaluation tool that would simulate the gastrointestinal physiology of gastric pH-reduced dogs as a method to assess formulations for a poorly soluble free acid compound with ng/mL solubility. After establishing the ASD model with well-controlled duodenum pH, 5 formulations each applying different solubilization principles were developed and their performance in the ASD model and in vivo in dogs was evaluated. Excellent correlations were obtained between dog area under the curve (AUC) and ASD AUC of 5 formulations evaluated with simulated intestinal fluid (r 2  = 0.987) and fasted-state simulated intestinal fluid (r 2  = 0.989) as the duodenum dissolution medium, indicating that the approach of infusing NaOH into duodenum compartment to maintain duodenum pH of an ASD worked properly in simulating gastric pH-reduced dog. Raman spectroscopy was used to study drug dissolution kinetics associated with different solubilization principles and the results suggested that the solubilization principles performed as designed. Spectroscopic results also identified that the compound formed a gel during dissolution and hypromellose maintained the drug-gelled state to avoid further solid form conversion. The implication of the compound physical gelation to drug dissolution kinetics and in vivo exposure are discussed. Copyright © 2017 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding lizard's microhabitat use based on a mechanistic model of behavioral thermoregulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fei, Teng; Venus, Valentijn; Toxopeus, Bert; Skidmore, Andrew K.; Schlerf, Martin; Liu, Yaolin; van Overdijk, Sjef; Bian, Meng

2008-12-01

Lizards are an "excellent group of organisms" to examine the habitat and microhabitat use mainly because their ecology and physiology is well studied. Due to their behavioral body temperature regulation, the thermal environment is especially linked with their habitat use. In this study, for mapping and understanding lizard's distribution at microhabitat scale, an individual of Timon Lepidus was kept and monitored in a terrarium (245×120×115cm) in which sand, rocks, burrows, hatching chambers, UV-lamps, fog generators and heating devices were placed to simulate its natural habitat. Optical cameras, thermal cameras and other data loggers were fixed and recording the lizard's body temperature, ground surface temperature, air temperature, radiation and other important environmental parameters. By analysis the data collected, we propose a Cellular Automata (CA) model by which the movement of lizards is simulated and translated into their distribution. This paper explores the capabilities of applying GIS techniques to thermoregulatory activity studies in a microhabitat-scale. We conclude that microhabitat use of lizards can be explained in some degree by the rule based CA model.

Constraining 3-PG with a new δ13C submodel: a test using the δ13C of tree rings.

PubMed

Wei, Liang; Marshall, John D; Link, Timothy E; Kavanagh, Kathleen L; DU, Enhao; Pangle, Robert E; Gag, Peter J; Ubierna, Nerea

2014-01-01

A semi-mechanistic forest growth model, 3-PG (Physiological Principles Predicting Growth), was extended to calculate δ(13)C in tree rings. The δ(13)C estimates were based on the model's existing description of carbon assimilation and canopy conductance. The model was tested in two ~80-year-old natural stands of Abies grandis (grand fir) in northern Idaho. We used as many independent measurements as possible to parameterize the model. Measured parameters included quantum yield, specific leaf area, soil water content and litterfall rate. Predictions were compared with measurements of transpiration by sap flux, stem biomass, tree diameter growth, leaf area index and δ(13)C. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model's predictions of δ(13)C were sensitive to key parameters controlling carbon assimilation and canopy conductance, which would have allowed it to fail had the model been parameterized or programmed incorrectly. Instead, the simulated δ(13)C of tree rings was no different from measurements (P > 0.05). The δ(13)C submodel provides a convenient means of constraining parameter space and avoiding model artefacts. This δ(13)C test may be applied to any forest growth model that includes realistic simulations of carbon assimilation and transpiration. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

P. falciparum Infection Durations and Infectiousness Are Shaped by Antigenic Variation and Innate and Adaptive Host Immunity in a Mathematical Model

PubMed Central

Eckhoff, Philip

2012-01-01

Many questions remain about P. falciparum within-host dynamics, immunity, and transmission–issues that may affect public health campaign planning. These gaps in knowledge concern the distribution of durations of malaria infections, determination of peak parasitemia during acute infection, the relationships among gametocytes and immune responses and infectiousness to mosquitoes, and the effect of antigenic structure on reinfection outcomes. The present model of intra-host dynamics of P. falciparum implements detailed representations of parasite and immune dynamics, with structures based on minimal extrapolations from first-principles biology in its foundations. The model is designed to quickly and readily accommodate gains in mechanistic understanding and to evaluate effects of alternative biological hypothesis through in silico experiments. Simulations follow the parasite from the liver-stage through the detailed asexual cycle to clearance while tracking gametocyte populations. The modeled immune system includes innate inflammatory and specific antibody responses to a repertoire of antigens. The mechanistic focus provides clear explanations for the structure of the distribution of infection durations through the interaction of antigenic variation and innate and adaptive immunity. Infectiousness to mosquitoes appears to be determined not only by the density of gametocytes but also by the level of inflammatory cytokines, which harmonizes an extensive series of study results. Finally, pre-existing immunity can either decrease or increase the duration of infections upon reinfection, depending on the degree of overlap in antigenic repertoires and the strength of the pre-existing immunity. PMID:23028698

A stakeholder project to model water temperature under future climate scenarios in the Satus and Toppenish watersheds of the Yakima River Basinin Washington, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, D.; Maule, A.

2014-01-01

The goal of this study was to support an assessment of the potential effects of climate change on select natural, social, and economic resources in the Yakima River Basin. A workshop with local stakeholders highlighted the usefulness of projecting climate change impacts on anadromous steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a fish species of importance to local tribes, fisherman, and conservationists. Stream temperature is an important environmental variable for the freshwater stages of steelhead. For this study, we developed water temperature models for the Satus and Toppenish watersheds, two of the key stronghold areas for steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We constructed the models with the Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP), a mechanistic approach to simulate water temperature in a stream network. The models were calibrated over the April 15, 2008 to September 30, 2008 period and validated over the April 15, 2009 to September 30, 2009 period using historic measurements of stream temperature and discharge provided by the Yakama Nation Fisheries Resource Management Program. Once validated, the models were run to simulate conditions during the spring and summer seasons over a baseline period (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios with increased air temperature of 1°C and 2°C. The models simulated daily mean and maximum water temperatures at sites throughout the two watersheds under the baseline and future climate scenarios.

Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models.

PubMed

Daniels, Bryan C; Nemenman, Ilya

2015-08-21

Dynamics of complex systems is often driven by large and intricate networks of microscopic interactions, whose sheer size obfuscates understanding. With limited experimental data, many parameters of such dynamics are unknown, and thus detailed, mechanistic models risk overfitting and making faulty predictions. At the other extreme, simple ad hoc models often miss defining features of the underlying systems. Here we develop an approach that instead constructs phenomenological, coarse-grained models of network dynamics that automatically adapt their complexity to the available data. Such adaptive models produce accurate predictions even when microscopic details are unknown. The approach is computationally tractable, even for a relatively large number of dynamical variables. Using simulated data, it correctly infers the phase space structure for planetary motion, avoids overfitting in a biological signalling system and produces accurate predictions for yeast glycolysis with tens of data points and over half of the interacting species unobserved.

Calibration and analysis of genome-based models for microbial ecology.

PubMed

Louca, Stilianos; Doebeli, Michael

2015-10-16

Microbial ecosystem modeling is complicated by the large number of unknown parameters and the lack of appropriate calibration tools. Here we present a novel computational framework for modeling microbial ecosystems, which combines genome-based model construction with statistical analysis and calibration to experimental data. Using this framework, we examined the dynamics of a community of Escherichia coli strains that emerged in laboratory evolution experiments, during which an ancestral strain diversified into two coexisting ecotypes. We constructed a microbial community model comprising the ancestral and the evolved strains, which we calibrated using separate monoculture experiments. Simulations reproduced the successional dynamics in the evolution experiments, and pathway activation patterns observed in microarray transcript profiles. Our approach yielded detailed insights into the metabolic processes that drove bacterial diversification, involving acetate cross-feeding and competition for organic carbon and oxygen. Our framework provides a missing link towards a data-driven mechanistic microbial ecology.

Resolving Microzooplankton Functional Groups In A Size-Structured Planktonic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taniguchi, D.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Follows, M. J.; Jahn, O.; Menden-Deuer, S.

2016-02-01

Microzooplankton are important marine grazers, often consuming a large fraction of primary productivity. They consist of a great diversity of organisms with different behaviors, characteristics, and rates. This functional diversity, and its consequences, are not currently reflected in large-scale ocean ecological simulations. How should these organisms be represented, and what are the implications for their biogeography? We develop a size-structured, trait-based model to characterize a diversity of microzooplankton functional groups. We compile and examine size-based laboratory data on the traits, revealing some patterns with size and functional group that we interpret with mechanistic theory. Fitting the model to the data provides parameterizations of key rates and properties, which we employ in a numerical ocean model. The diversity of grazing preference, rates, and trophic strategies enables the coexistence of different functional groups of micro-grazers under various environmental conditions, and the model produces testable predictions of the biogeography.

Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models

PubMed Central

Daniels, Bryan C.; Nemenman, Ilya

2015-01-01

Dynamics of complex systems is often driven by large and intricate networks of microscopic interactions, whose sheer size obfuscates understanding. With limited experimental data, many parameters of such dynamics are unknown, and thus detailed, mechanistic models risk overfitting and making faulty predictions. At the other extreme, simple ad hoc models often miss defining features of the underlying systems. Here we develop an approach that instead constructs phenomenological, coarse-grained models of network dynamics that automatically adapt their complexity to the available data. Such adaptive models produce accurate predictions even when microscopic details are unknown. The approach is computationally tractable, even for a relatively large number of dynamical variables. Using simulated data, it correctly infers the phase space structure for planetary motion, avoids overfitting in a biological signalling system and produces accurate predictions for yeast glycolysis with tens of data points and over half of the interacting species unobserved. PMID:26293508

Responses to atmospheric CO2 concentrations in crop simulation models: a review of current simple and semicomplex representations and options for model development.

PubMed

Vanuytrecht, Eline; Thorburn, Peter J

2017-05-01

Elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations ([CO 2 ]) cause direct changes in crop physiological processes (e.g. photosynthesis and stomatal conductance). To represent these CO 2 responses, commonly used crop simulation models have been amended, using simple and semicomplex representations of the processes involved. Yet, there is no standard approach to and often poor documentation of these developments. This study used a bottom-up approach (starting with the APSIM framework as case study) to evaluate modelled responses in a consortium of commonly used crop models and illuminate whether variation in responses reflects true uncertainty in our understanding compared to arbitrary choices of model developers. Diversity in simulated CO 2 responses and limited validation were common among models, both within the APSIM framework and more generally. Whereas production responses show some consistency up to moderately high [CO 2 ] (around 700 ppm), transpiration and stomatal responses vary more widely in nature and magnitude (e.g. a decrease in stomatal conductance varying between 35% and 90% among models was found for [CO 2 ] doubling to 700 ppm). Most notably, nitrogen responses were found to be included in few crop models despite being commonly observed and critical for the simulation of photosynthetic acclimation, crop nutritional quality and carbon allocation. We suggest harmonization and consideration of more mechanistic concepts in particular subroutines, for example, for the simulation of N dynamics, as a way to improve our predictive understanding of CO 2 responses and capture secondary processes. Intercomparison studies could assist in this aim, provided that they go beyond simple output comparison and explicitly identify the representations and assumptions that are causal for intermodel differences. Additionally, validation and proper documentation of the representation of CO 2 responses within models should be prioritized. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Testing the impact of virus importation rates and future climate change on dengue activity in Malaysia using a mechanistic entomology and disease model.

PubMed

Williams, C R; Gill, B S; Mincham, G; Mohd Zaki, A H; Abdullah, N; Mahiyuddin, W R W; Ahmad, R; Shahar, M K; Harley, D; Viennet, E; Azil, A; Kamaluddin, A

2015-10-01

We aimed to reparameterize and validate an existing dengue model, comprising an entomological component (CIMSiM) and a disease component (DENSiM) for application in Malaysia. With the model we aimed to measure the effect of importation rate on dengue incidence, and to determine the potential impact of moderate climate change (a 1 °C temperature increase) on dengue activity. Dengue models (comprising CIMSiM and DENSiM) were reparameterized for a simulated Malaysian village of 10 000 people, and validated against monthly dengue case data from the district of Petaling Jaya in the state of Selangor. Simulations were also performed for 2008-2012 for variable virus importation rates (ranging from 1 to 25 per week) and dengue incidence determined. Dengue incidence in the period 2010-2012 was modelled, twice, with observed daily weather and with a 1 °C increase, the latter to simulate moderate climate change. Strong concordance between simulated and observed monthly dengue cases was observed (up to r = 0·72). There was a linear relationship between importation and incidence. However, a doubling of dengue importation did not equate to a doubling of dengue activity. The largest individual dengue outbreak was observed with the lowest dengue importation rate. Moderate climate change resulted in an overall decrease in dengue activity over a 3-year period, linked to high human seroprevalence early on in the simulation. Our results suggest that moderate reductions in importation with control programmes may not reduce the frequency of large outbreaks. Moderate increases in temperature do not necessarily lead to greater dengue incidence.

A Computational Model of Liver Iron Metabolism

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Simon; Mendes, Pedro

2013-01-01

Iron is essential for all known life due to its redox properties; however, these same properties can also lead to its toxicity in overload through the production of reactive oxygen species. Robust systemic and cellular control are required to maintain safe levels of iron, and the liver seems to be where this regulation is mainly located. Iron misregulation is implicated in many diseases, and as our understanding of iron metabolism improves, the list of iron-related disorders grows. Recent developments have resulted in greater knowledge of the fate of iron in the body and have led to a detailed map of its metabolism; however, a quantitative understanding at the systems level of how its components interact to produce tight regulation remains elusive. A mechanistic computational model of human liver iron metabolism, which includes the core regulatory components, is presented here. It was constructed based on known mechanisms of regulation and on their kinetic properties, obtained from several publications. The model was then quantitatively validated by comparing its results with previously published physiological data, and it is able to reproduce multiple experimental findings. A time course simulation following an oral dose of iron was compared to a clinical time course study and the simulation was found to recreate the dynamics and time scale of the systems response to iron challenge. A disease state simulation of haemochromatosis was created by altering a single reaction parameter that mimics a human haemochromatosis gene (HFE) mutation. The simulation provides a quantitative understanding of the liver iron overload that arises in this disease. This model supports and supplements understanding of the role of the liver as an iron sensor and provides a framework for further modelling, including simulations to identify valuable drug targets and design of experiments to improve further our knowledge of this system. PMID:24244122

First-Principles Molecular Dynamics Studies of Organometallic Complexes and Homogeneous Catalytic Processes.

PubMed

Vidossich, Pietro; Lledós, Agustí; Ujaque, Gregori

2016-06-21

Computational chemistry is a valuable aid to complement experimental studies of organometallic systems and their reactivity. It allows probing mechanistic hypotheses and investigating molecular structures, shedding light on the behavior and properties of molecular assemblies at the atomic scale. When approaching a chemical problem, the computational chemist has to decide on the theoretical approach needed to describe electron/nuclear interactions and the composition of the model used to approximate the actual system. Both factors determine the reliability of the modeling study. The community dedicated much effort to developing and improving the performance and accuracy of theoretical approaches for electronic structure calculations, on which the description of (inter)atomic interactions rely. Here, the importance of the model system used in computational studies is highlighted through examples from our recent research focused on organometallic systems and homogeneous catalytic processes. We show how the inclusion of explicit solvent allows the characterization of molecular events that would otherwise not be accessible in reduced model systems (clusters). These include the stabilization of nascent charged fragments via microscopic solvation (notably, hydrogen bonding), transfer of charge (protons) between distant fragments mediated by solvent molecules, and solvent coordination to unsaturated metal centers. Furthermore, when weak interactions are involved, we show how conformational and solvation properties of organometallic complexes are also affected by the explicit inclusion of solvent molecules. Such extended model systems may be treated under periodic boundary conditions, thus removing the cluster/continuum (or vacuum) boundary, and require a statistical mechanics simulation technique to sample the accessible configurational space. First-principles molecular dynamics, in which atomic forces are computed from electronic structure calculations (namely, density functional theory), is certainly the technique of choice to investigate chemical events in solution. This methodology is well established and thanks to advances in both algorithms and computational resources simulation times required for the modeling of chemical events are nowadays accessible, though the computational requirements use to be high. Specific applications reviewed here include mechanistic studies of the Shilov and Wacker processes, speciation in Pd chemistry, hydrogen bonding to metal centers, and the dynamics of agostic interactions.

Development and application of a mechanistic model to estimate emission of nitrous oxide from UK agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, L.; Syed, B.; Jarvis, S. C.; Sneath, R. W.; Phillips, V. R.; Goulding, K. W. T.; Li, C.

A mechanistic model of N 2O emission from agricultural soil (DeNitrification-DeComposition—DNDC) was modified for application to the UK, and was used as the basis of an inventory of N 2O emission from UK agriculture in 1990. UK-specific input data were added to DNDC's database and the ability to simulate daily C and N inputs from grazing animals and applied animal waste was added to the model. The UK version of the model, UK-DNDC, simulated emissions from 18 different crop types on the 3 areally dominant soils in each county. Validation of the model at the field scale showed that predictions matched observations well. Emission factors for the inventory were calculated from estimates of N 2O emission from UK-DNDC, in order to maintain direct comparability with the IPCC approach. These, along with activity data, were included in a transparent spreadsheet format. Using UK-DNDC, the estimate of N 2O-N emission from UK current agricultural practice in 1990 was 50.9 Gg. This total comprised 31.7 Gg from the soil sector, 5.9 Gg from animals and 13.2 Gg from the indirect sector. The range of this estimate (using the range of soil organic C for each soil used) was 30.5-62.5 Gg N. Estimates of emissions in each sector were compared to those calculated using the IPCC default methodology. Emissions from the soil and indirect sectors were smaller with the UK-DNDC approach than with the IPCC methodology, while emissions from the animal sector were larger. The model runs suggested a relatively large emission from agricultural land that was not attributable to current agricultural practices (33.8 Gg in total, 27.4 Gg from the soil sector). This 'background' component is partly the result of historical agricultural land use. It is not normally included in inventories of emission, but would increase the total emission of N 2O-N from agricultural land in 1990 to 78.3 Gg.

Estimation of adsorption isotherm and mass transfer parameters in protein chromatography using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Wang, Gang; Briskot, Till; Hahn, Tobias; Baumann, Pascal; Hubbuch, Jürgen

2017-03-03

Mechanistic modeling has been repeatedly successfully applied in process development and control of protein chromatography. For each combination of adsorbate and adsorbent, the mechanistic models have to be calibrated. Some of the model parameters, such as system characteristics, can be determined reliably by applying well-established experimental methods, whereas others cannot be measured directly. In common practice of protein chromatography modeling, these parameters are identified by applying time-consuming methods such as frontal analysis combined with gradient experiments, curve-fitting, or combined Yamamoto approach. For new components in the chromatographic system, these traditional calibration approaches require to be conducted repeatedly. In the presented work, a novel method for the calibration of mechanistic models based on artificial neural network (ANN) modeling was applied. An in silico screening of possible model parameter combinations was performed to generate learning material for the ANN model. Once the ANN model was trained to recognize chromatograms and to respond with the corresponding model parameter set, it was used to calibrate the mechanistic model from measured chromatograms. The ANN model's capability of parameter estimation was tested by predicting gradient elution chromatograms. The time-consuming model parameter estimation process itself could be reduced down to milliseconds. The functionality of the method was successfully demonstrated in a study with the calibration of the transport-dispersive model (TDM) and the stoichiometric displacement model (SDM) for a protein mixture. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Full-scale simulation of seawater reverse osmosis desalination processes for boron removal: Effect of membrane fouling.

PubMed

Park, Pyung-Kyu; Lee, Sangho; Cho, Jae-Seok; Kim, Jae-Hong

2012-08-01

The objective of this study is to further develop previously reported mechanistic predictive model that simulates boron removal in full-scale seawater reverse osmosis (RO) desalination processes to take into account the effect of membrane fouling. Decrease of boron removal and reduction in water production rate by membrane fouling due to enhanced concentration polarization were simulated as a decrease in solute mass transfer coefficient in boundary layer on membrane surface. Various design and operating options under fouling condition were examined including single- versus double-pass configurations, different number of RO elements per vessel, use of RO membranes with enhanced boron rejection, and pH adjustment. These options were quantitatively compared by normalizing the performance of the system in terms of E(min), the minimum energy costs per product water. Simulation results suggested that most viable options to enhance boron rejection among those tested in this study include: i) minimizing fouling, ii) exchanging the existing SWRO elements to boron-specific ones, and iii) increasing pH in the second pass. The model developed in this study is expected to help design and optimization of the RO processes to achieve the target boron removal at target water recovery under realistic conditions where membrane fouling occurs during operation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hysteresis in simulations of malaria transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, Teresa K.; Qiu, Xin; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2017-10-01

Malaria transmission is a complex system and in many parts of the world is closely related to climate conditions. However, studies on environmental determinants of malaria generally consider only concurrent climate conditions and ignore the historical or initial conditions of the system. Here, we demonstrate the concept of hysteresis in malaria transmission, defined as non-uniqueness of the relationship between malaria prevalence and concurrent climate conditions. We show the dependence of simulated malaria transmission on initial prevalence and the initial level of human immunity in the population. Using realistic time series of environmental variables, we quantify the effect of hysteresis in a modeled population. In a set of numerical experiments using HYDREMATS, a field-tested mechanistic model of malaria transmission, the simulated maximum malaria prevalence depends on both the initial prevalence and the initial level of human immunity in the population. We found the effects of initial conditions to be of comparable magnitude to the effects of interannual variability in environmental conditions in determining malaria prevalence. The memory associated with this hysteresis effect is longer in high transmission settings than in low transmission settings. Our results show that efforts to simulate and forecast malaria transmission must consider the exposure history of a location as well as the concurrent environmental drivers.

Mechanistic models as a transferable framework for projecting effects of habitat change on production and delivery of ecosystem services

EPA Science Inventory

Drawing a link between habitat change and the production and delivery of ecosystem services is a priority in coastal estuarine ecosystems. Mechanistic modeling tools are highly functional for exploring this link because they allow for the synthesis of multiple ecological and beh...

GENE ARRAYS FOR ELUCIDATING MECHANISTIC DATA FROM MODELS OF MALE INFERTILITY AND CHEMICAL EXPOSURE IN MICE, RATS AND HUMANS

EPA Science Inventory

Gene arrays for elucidating mechanistic data from models of male infertility and chemical exposure in mice, rats and humans
John C. Rockett and David J. Dix
Gamete and Early Embryo Biology Branch, Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects ...

Modeling systems-level dynamics: Understanding without mechanistic explanation in integrative systems biology.

PubMed

MacLeod, Miles; Nersessian, Nancy J

2015-02-01

In this paper we draw upon rich ethnographic data of two systems biology labs to explore the roles of explanation and understanding in large-scale systems modeling. We illustrate practices that depart from the goal of dynamic mechanistic explanation for the sake of more limited modeling goals. These processes use abstract mathematical formulations of bio-molecular interactions and data fitting techniques which we call top-down abstraction to trade away accurate mechanistic accounts of large-scale systems for specific information about aspects of those systems. We characterize these practices as pragmatic responses to the constraints many modelers of large-scale systems face, which in turn generate more limited pragmatic non-mechanistic forms of understanding of systems. These forms aim at knowledge of how to predict system responses in order to manipulate and control some aspects of them. We propose that this analysis of understanding provides a way to interpret what many systems biologists are aiming for in practice when they talk about the objective of a "systems-level understanding." Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solving Immunology?

PubMed

Vodovotz, Yoram; Xia, Ashley; Read, Elizabeth L; Bassaganya-Riera, Josep; Hafler, David A; Sontag, Eduardo; Wang, Jin; Tsang, John S; Day, Judy D; Kleinstein, Steven H; Butte, Atul J; Altman, Matthew C; Hammond, Ross; Sealfon, Stuart C

2017-02-01

Emergent responses of the immune system result from the integration of molecular and cellular networks over time and across multiple organs. High-content and high-throughput analysis technologies, concomitantly with data-driven and mechanistic modeling, hold promise for the systematic interrogation of these complex pathways. However, connecting genetic variation and molecular mechanisms to individual phenotypes and health outcomes has proven elusive. Gaps remain in data, and disagreements persist about the value of mechanistic modeling for immunology. Here, we present the perspectives that emerged from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) workshop 'Complex Systems Science, Modeling and Immunity' and subsequent discussions regarding the potential synergy of high-throughput data acquisition, data-driven modeling, and mechanistic modeling to define new mechanisms of immunological disease and to accelerate the translation of these insights into therapies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FASTGRASS: A mechanistic model for the prediction of Xe, I, Cs, Te, Ba, and Sr release from nuclear fuel under normal and severe-accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rest, J.; Zawadzki, S.A.

The primary physical/chemical models that form the basis of the FASTGRASS mechanistic computer model for calculating fission-product release from nuclear fuel are described. Calculated results are compared with test data and the major mechanisms affecting the transport of fission products during steady-state and accident conditions are identified.

Toward a mechanistic modeling of nitrogen limitation on vegetation dynamics.

PubMed

Xu, Chonggang; Fisher, Rosie; Wullschleger, Stan D; Wilson, Cathy J; Cai, Michael; McDowell, Nate G

2012-01-01

Nitrogen is a dominant regulator of vegetation dynamics, net primary production, and terrestrial carbon cycles; however, most ecosystem models use a rather simplistic relationship between leaf nitrogen content and photosynthetic capacity. Such an approach does not consider how patterns of nitrogen allocation may change with differences in light intensity, growing-season temperature and CO(2) concentration. To account for this known variability in nitrogen-photosynthesis relationships, we develop a mechanistic nitrogen allocation model based on a trade-off of nitrogen allocated between growth and storage, and an optimization of nitrogen allocated among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, and respiration. The developed model is able to predict the acclimation of photosynthetic capacity to changes in CO(2) concentration, temperature, and radiation when evaluated against published data of V(c,max) (maximum carboxylation rate) and J(max) (maximum electron transport rate). A sensitivity analysis of the model for herbaceous plants, deciduous and evergreen trees implies that elevated CO(2) concentrations lead to lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation but higher allocation to storage. Higher growing-season temperatures cause lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation, due to higher nitrogen requirements for light capture pigments and for storage. Lower levels of radiation have a much stronger effect on allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation for herbaceous plants than for trees, resulting from higher nitrogen requirements for light capture for herbaceous plants. As far as we know, this is the first model of complete nitrogen allocation that simultaneously considers nitrogen allocation to light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, respiration and storage, and the responses of each to altered environmental conditions. We expect this model could potentially improve our confidence in simulations of carbon-nitrogen interactions and the vegetation feedbacks to climate in Earth system models.

Toward a Mechanistic Modeling of Nitrogen Limitation on Vegetation Dynamics

PubMed Central

Xu, Chonggang; Fisher, Rosie; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Wilson, Cathy J.; Cai, Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

2012-01-01

Nitrogen is a dominant regulator of vegetation dynamics, net primary production, and terrestrial carbon cycles; however, most ecosystem models use a rather simplistic relationship between leaf nitrogen content and photosynthetic capacity. Such an approach does not consider how patterns of nitrogen allocation may change with differences in light intensity, growing-season temperature and CO2 concentration. To account for this known variability in nitrogen-photosynthesis relationships, we develop a mechanistic nitrogen allocation model based on a trade-off of nitrogen allocated between growth and storage, and an optimization of nitrogen allocated among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, and respiration. The developed model is able to predict the acclimation of photosynthetic capacity to changes in CO2 concentration, temperature, and radiation when evaluated against published data of Vc,max (maximum carboxylation rate) and Jmax (maximum electron transport rate). A sensitivity analysis of the model for herbaceous plants, deciduous and evergreen trees implies that elevated CO2 concentrations lead to lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation but higher allocation to storage. Higher growing-season temperatures cause lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation, due to higher nitrogen requirements for light capture pigments and for storage. Lower levels of radiation have a much stronger effect on allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation for herbaceous plants than for trees, resulting from higher nitrogen requirements for light capture for herbaceous plants. As far as we know, this is the first model of complete nitrogen allocation that simultaneously considers nitrogen allocation to light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, respiration and storage, and the responses of each to altered environmental conditions. We expect this model could potentially improve our confidence in simulations of carbon-nitrogen interactions and the vegetation feedbacks to climate in Earth system models. PMID:22649564

Spatial modeling of cell signaling networks.

PubMed

Cowan, Ann E; Moraru, Ion I; Schaff, James C; Slepchenko, Boris M; Loew, Leslie M

2012-01-01

The shape of a cell, the sizes of subcellular compartments, and the spatial distribution of molecules within the cytoplasm can all control how molecules interact to produce a cellular behavior. This chapter describes how these spatial features can be included in mechanistic mathematical models of cell signaling. The Virtual Cell computational modeling and simulation software is used to illustrate the considerations required to build a spatial model. An explanation of how to appropriately choose between physical formulations that implicitly or explicitly account for cell geometry and between deterministic versus stochastic formulations for molecular dynamics is provided, along with a discussion of their respective strengths and weaknesses. As a first step toward constructing a spatial model, the geometry needs to be specified and associated with the molecules, reactions, and membrane flux processes of the network. Initial conditions, diffusion coefficients, velocities, and boundary conditions complete the specifications required to define the mathematics of the model. The numerical methods used to solve reaction-diffusion problems both deterministically and stochastically are then described and some guidance is provided in how to set up and run simulations. A study of cAMP signaling in neurons ends the chapter, providing an example of the insights that can be gained in interpreting experimental results through the application of spatial modeling. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using a food web model to inform the design of river restoration—An example at the Barkley Bear Segment, Methow River, north-central Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benjamin, Joseph R.; Bellmore, J. Ryan; Dombroski, Daniel

2018-01-29

With the decline of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss), habitat restoration actions in freshwater tributaries have been implemented to improve conditions for juveniles. Typically, physical (for example, hydrologic and engineering) based models are used to design restoration alternatives with the assumption that biological responses will be improved with changes to the physical habitat. Biological models rarely are used. Here, we describe simulations of a food web model, the Aquatic Trophic Productivity (ATP) model, to aid in the design of a restoration project in the Methow River, north-central Washington. The ATP model mechanistically links environmental conditions of the stream to the dynamics of river food webs, and can be used to simulate how alternative river restoration designs influence the potential for river reaches to sustain fish production. Four restoration design alternatives were identified that encompassed varying levels of side channel and floodplain reconnection and large wood addition. Our model simulations suggest that design alternatives focused on reconnecting side channels and the adjacent floodplain may provide the greatest increase in fish capacity. These results were robust to a range of discharge and thermal regimes that naturally occur in the Methow River. Our results suggest that biological models, such as the ATP model, can be used during the restoration planning phase to increase the effectiveness of restoration actions. Moreover, the use of multiple modeling efforts, both physical and biological, when evaluating restoration design alternatives provides a better understanding of the potential outcome of restoration actions.

Modeling climate change impacts on maize growth with the focus on plant internal water transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinlein, Florian; Biernath, Christian; Klein, Christian; Thieme, Christoph; Priesack, Eckart

2015-04-01

Based on climate change experiments in chambers and on field measurements, the scientific community expects regional and global changes of crop biomass production and yields. In central Europe one major aspect of climate change is the shift of precipitation towards winter months and the increase of extreme events, e.g. heat stress and heavy precipitation, during the main growing season in summer. To understand water uptake, water use, and transpiration rates by plants numerous crop models were developed. We tested the ability of two existing canopy models (CERES-Maize and SPASS) embedded in the model environment Expert-N5.0 to simulate the water balance, water use efficiency and crop growth. Additionally, sap flow was measured using heat-ratio measurement devices at the stem base of individual plants. The models were tested against data on soil water contents, as well as on evaporation and transpiration rates of Maize plants, which were grown on lysimeters at Helmholtz Zentrum München and in the field at the research station Scheyern, Germany, in summer 2013 and 2014. We present the simulation results and discuss observed shortcomings of the models. CERES-Maize and SPASS could simulate the measured dynamics of xylem sap flow. However, these models oversimplify plant water transport, and thus, cannot explain the underlying mechanisms. Therefore, to overcome these shortcomings, we additionally propose a new model, which is based on two coupled 1-D Richards equations, describing explicitly the plant and soil water transport. This model, which has previously successfully been applied to simulate water flux of 94 individual beech trees of an old-grown forest, will lead to a more mechanistic representation of the soil-plant-water-flow-continuum. This xylem water flux model was now implemented into the crop model SPASS and adjusted to simulate water flux of single maize plants. The modified version is presented and explained. Basic model input requirements are the plant above- and below-ground architectures. Shoot architectures were derived from terrestrial laser scanning. Root architectures of Maize plants were generated using a simple L-system. Preliminary results will be presented together with simulation results by CERES-Maize and SPASS.

Mechanistic modeling of pesticide exposure: The missing keystone of honey bee toxicology.

PubMed

Sponsler, Douglas B; Johnson, Reed M

2017-04-01

The role of pesticides in recent honey bee losses is controversial, partly because field studies often fail to detect effects predicted by laboratory studies. This dissonance highlights a critical gap in the field of honey bee toxicology: there exists little mechanistic understanding of the patterns and processes of exposure that link honey bees to pesticides in their environment. The authors submit that 2 key processes underlie honey bee pesticide exposure: 1) the acquisition of pesticide by foraging bees, and 2) the in-hive distribution of pesticide returned by foragers. The acquisition of pesticide by foraging bees must be understood as the spatiotemporal intersection between environmental contamination and honey bee foraging activity. This implies that exposure is distributional, not discrete, and that a subset of foragers may acquire harmful doses of pesticide while the mean colony exposure would appear safe. The in-hive distribution of pesticide is a complex process driven principally by food transfer interactions between colony members, and this process differs importantly between pollen and nectar. High priority should be placed on applying the extensive literature on honey bee biology to the development of more rigorously mechanistic models of honey bee pesticide exposure. In combination with mechanistic effects modeling, mechanistic exposure modeling has the potential to integrate the field of honey bee toxicology, advancing both risk assessment and basic research. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:871-881. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Free-energy landscape of protein oligomerization from atomistic simulations

PubMed Central

Barducci, Alessandro; Bonomi, Massimiliano; Prakash, Meher K.; Parrinello, Michele

2013-01-01

In the realm of protein–protein interactions, the assembly process of homooligomers plays a fundamental role because the majority of proteins fall into this category. A comprehensive understanding of this multistep process requires the characterization of the driving molecular interactions and the transient intermediate species. The latter are often short-lived and thus remain elusive to most experimental investigations. Molecular simulations provide a unique tool to shed light onto these complex processes complementing experimental data. Here we combine advanced sampling techniques, such as metadynamics and parallel tempering, to characterize the oligomerization landscape of fibritin foldon domain. This system is an evolutionarily optimized trimerization motif that represents an ideal model for experimental and computational mechanistic studies. Our results are fully consistent with previous experimental nuclear magnetic resonance and kinetic data, but they provide a unique insight into fibritin foldon assembly. In particular, our simulations unveil the role of nonspecific interactions and suggest that an interplay between thermodynamic bias toward native structure and residual conformational disorder may provide a kinetic advantage. PMID:24248370

Understanding the mechanisms of amorphous creep through molecular simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Penghui; Short, Michael P.; Yip, Sidney

2017-12-01

Molecular processes of creep in metallic glass thin films are simulated at experimental timescales using a metadynamics-based atomistic method. Space-time evolutions of the atomic strains and nonaffine atom displacements are analyzed to reveal details of the atomic-level deformation and flow processes of amorphous creep in response to stress and thermal activations. From the simulation results, resolved spatially on the nanoscale and temporally over time increments of fractions of a second, we derive a mechanistic explanation of the well-known variation of creep rate with stress. We also construct a deformation map delineating the predominant regimes of diffusional creep at low stress and high temperature and deformational creep at high stress. Our findings validate the relevance of two original models of the mechanisms of amorphous plasticity: one focusing on atomic diffusion via free volume and the other focusing on stress-induced shear deformation. These processes are found to be nonlinearly coupled through dynamically heterogeneous fluctuations that characterize the slow dynamics of systems out of equilibrium.

Mechanistic insights into a hydrate contribution to the Paleocene-Eocene carbon cycle perturbation from coupled thermohydraulic simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minshull, T. A.; Marín-Moreno, H.; Armstrong McKay, D. I.; Wilson, P. A.

2016-08-01

During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the carbon isotopic signature (δ13C) of surface carbon-bearing phases decreased abruptly by at least 2.5 to 3.0‰. This carbon isotope excursion (CIE) has been attributed to widespread methane hydrate dissociation in response to rapid ocean warming. We ran a thermohydraulic modeling code to simulate hydrate dissociation due to ocean warming for various PETM scenarios. Our results show that hydrate dissociation in response to such warming can be rapid but suggest that methane release to the ocean is modest and delayed by hundreds to thousands of years after the onset of dissociation, limiting the potential for positive feedback from emission-induced warming. In all of our simulations at least half of the dissociated hydrate methane remains beneath the seabed, suggesting that the pre-PETM hydrate inventory needed to account for all of the CIE is at least double that required for isotopic mass balance.

Crystal Growth Simulations To Establish Physically Relevant Kinetic Parameters from the Empirical Kolmogorov-Johnson-Mehl-Avrami Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dill, Eric D.; Folmer, Jacob C.W.; Martin, James D.

A series of simulations was performed to enable interpretation of the material and physical significance of the parameters defined in the Kolmogorov, Johnson and Mehl, and Avrami (KJMA) rate expression commonly used to describe phase boundary controlled reactions of condensed matter. The parameters k, n, and t 0 are shown to be highly correlated, which if unaccounted for seriously challenge mechanistic interpretation. It is demonstrated that rate measurements exhibit an intrinsic uncertainty without precise knowledge of the location and orientation of nucleation with respect to the free volume into which it grows. More significantly, it is demonstrated that the KJMAmore » rate constant k is highly dependent on sample size. However, under the simulated conditions of slow nucleation relative to crystal growth, sample volume and sample anisotropy correction affords a means to eliminate the experimental condition dependence of the KJMA rate constant, k, producing the material-specific parameter, the velocity of the phase boundary, v pb.« less

Free-energy landscape of protein oligomerization from atomistic simulations.

PubMed

Barducci, Alessandro; Bonomi, Massimiliano; Prakash, Meher K; Parrinello, Michele

2013-12-03

In the realm of protein-protein interactions, the assembly process of homooligomers plays a fundamental role because the majority of proteins fall into this category. A comprehensive understanding of this multistep process requires the characterization of the driving molecular interactions and the transient intermediate species. The latter are often short-lived and thus remain elusive to most experimental investigations. Molecular simulations provide a unique tool to shed light onto these complex processes complementing experimental data. Here we combine advanced sampling techniques, such as metadynamics and parallel tempering, to characterize the oligomerization landscape of fibritin foldon domain. This system is an evolutionarily optimized trimerization motif that represents an ideal model for experimental and computational mechanistic studies. Our results are fully consistent with previous experimental nuclear magnetic resonance and kinetic data, but they provide a unique insight into fibritin foldon assembly. In particular, our simulations unveil the role of nonspecific interactions and suggest that an interplay between thermodynamic bias toward native structure and residual conformational disorder may provide a kinetic advantage.

Trimethylamine-N-oxide switches from stabilizing nature: A mechanistic outlook through experimental techniques and molecular dynamics simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rani, Anjeeta; Jayaraj, Abhilash; Jayaram, B.; Pannuru, Venkatesu

2016-03-01

In adaptation biology of the discovery of the intracellular osmolytes, the osmolytes are found to play a central role in cellular homeostasis and stress response. A number of models using these molecules are now poised to address a wide range of problems in biology. Here, a combination of biophysical measurements and molecular dynamics (MD) simulation method is used to examine the effect of trimethylamine-N-oxide (TMAO) on stem bromelain (BM) structure, stability and function. From the analysis of our results, we found that TMAO destabilizes BM hydrophobic pockets and active site as a result of concerted polar and non-polar interactions which is strongly evidenced by MD simulation carried out for 250 ns. This destabilization is enthalpically favourable at higher concentrations of TMAO while entropically unfavourable. However, to the best of our knowledge, the results constitute first detailed unambiguous proof of destabilizing effect of most commonly addressed TMAO on the interactions governing stability of BM and present plausible mechanism of protein unfolding by TMAO.

kmos: A lattice kinetic Monte Carlo framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Max J.; Matera, Sebastian; Reuter, Karsten

2014-07-01

Kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) simulations have emerged as a key tool for microkinetic modeling in heterogeneous catalysis and other materials applications. Systems, where site-specificity of all elementary reactions allows a mapping onto a lattice of discrete active sites, can be addressed within the particularly efficient lattice kMC approach. To this end we describe the versatile kmos software package, which offers a most user-friendly implementation, execution, and evaluation of lattice kMC models of arbitrary complexity in one- to three-dimensional lattice systems, involving multiple active sites in periodic or aperiodic arrangements, as well as site-resolved pairwise and higher-order lateral interactions. Conceptually, kmos achieves a maximum runtime performance which is essentially independent of lattice size by generating code for the efficiency-determining local update of available events that is optimized for a defined kMC model. For this model definition and the control of all runtime and evaluation aspects kmos offers a high-level application programming interface. Usage proceeds interactively, via scripts, or a graphical user interface, which visualizes the model geometry, the lattice occupations and rates of selected elementary reactions, while allowing on-the-fly changes of simulation parameters. We demonstrate the performance and scaling of kmos with the application to kMC models for surface catalytic processes, where for given operation conditions (temperature and partial pressures of all reactants) central simulation outcomes are catalytic activity and selectivities, surface composition, and mechanistic insight into the occurrence of individual elementary processes in the reaction network.

Massive Exploration of Perturbed Conditions of the Blood Coagulation Cascade through GPU Parallelization

PubMed Central

Cazzaniga, Paolo; Nobile, Marco S.; Besozzi, Daniela; Bellini, Matteo; Mauri, Giancarlo

2014-01-01

The introduction of general-purpose Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) is boosting scientific applications in Bioinformatics, Systems Biology, and Computational Biology. In these fields, the use of high-performance computing solutions is motivated by the need of performing large numbers of in silico analysis to study the behavior of biological systems in different conditions, which necessitate a computing power that usually overtakes the capability of standard desktop computers. In this work we present coagSODA, a CUDA-powered computational tool that was purposely developed for the analysis of a large mechanistic model of the blood coagulation cascade (BCC), defined according to both mass-action kinetics and Hill functions. coagSODA allows the execution of parallel simulations of the dynamics of the BCC by automatically deriving the system of ordinary differential equations and then exploiting the numerical integration algorithm LSODA. We present the biological results achieved with a massive exploration of perturbed conditions of the BCC, carried out with one-dimensional and bi-dimensional parameter sweep analysis, and show that GPU-accelerated parallel simulations of this model can increase the computational performances up to a 181× speedup compared to the corresponding sequential simulations. PMID:25025072

Hybrid discrete-continuum modeling for transport, biofilm development and solid restructuring including electrostatic effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prechtel, Alexander; Ray, Nadja; Rupp, Andreas

2017-04-01

We want to present an approach for the mathematical, mechanistic modeling and numerical treatment of processes leading to the formation, stability, and turnover of soil micro-aggregates. This aims at deterministic aggregation models including detailed mechanistic pore-scale descriptions to account for the interplay of geochemistry and microbiology, and the link to soil functions as, e.g., the porosity. We therefore consider processes at the pore scale and the mesoscale (laboratory scale). At the pore scale transport by diffusion, advection, and drift emerging from electric forces can be taken into account, in addition to homogeneous and heterogeneous reactions of species. In the context of soil micro-aggregates the growth of biofilms or other glueing substances as EPS (extracellular polymeric substances) is important and affects the structure of the pore space in space and time. This model is upscaled mathematically in the framework of (periodic) homogenization to transfer it to the mesoscale resulting in effective coefficients/parameters there. This micro-macro model thus couples macroscopic equations that describe the transport and fluid flow at the scale of the porous medium (mesoscale) with averaged time- and space-dependent coefficient functions. These functions may be explicitly computed by means of auxiliary cell problems (microscale). Finally, the pore space in which the cell problems are defined is time and space dependent and its geometry inherits information from the transport equation's solutions. The microscale problems rely on versatile combinations of cellular automata and discontiuous Galerkin methods while on the mesoscale mixed finite elements are used. The numerical simulations allow to study the interplay between these processes.

Effect of Zn2+ binding and enzyme active site on the transition state for RNA 2'-O-transphosphorylation interpreted through kinetic isotope effects.

PubMed

Chen, Haoyuan; Piccirilli, Joseph A; Harris, Michael E; York, Darrin M

2015-11-01

Divalent metal ions, due to their ability to stabilize high concentrations of negative charge, are important for RNA folding and catalysis. Detailed models derived from the structures and kinetics of enzymes and from computational simulations have been developed. However, in most cases the specific catalytic modes involving metal ions and their mechanistic roles and effects on transition state structures remain controversial. Valuable information about the nature of the transition state is provided by measurement of kinetic isotope effects (KIEs). However, KIEs reflect changes in all bond vibrational modes that differ between the ground state and transition state. QM calculations are therefore essential for developing structural models of the transition state and evaluating mechanistic alternatives. Herein, we present computational models for Zn2+ binding to RNA 2'O-transphosphorylation reaction models that aid in the interpretation of KIE experiments. Different Zn2+ binding modes produce distinct KIE signatures, and one binding mode involving two zinc ions is in close agreement with KIEs measured for non-enzymatic catalysis by Zn2+ aquo ions alone. Interestingly, the KIE signatures in this specific model are also very close to those in RNase A catalysis. These results allow a quantitative connection to be made between experimental KIE measurements and transition state structure and bonding, and provide insight into RNA 2'O-ransphosphorylation reactions catalyzed by metal ions and enzymes. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Enzyme Transition States from Theory and Experiment. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Simulations of NLC formation using a microphysical model driven by three-dimensional dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirsch, Annekatrin; Becker, Erich; Rapp, Markus; Megner, Linda; Wilms, Henrike

2014-05-01

Noctilucent clouds (NLCs) represent an optical phenomenon occurring in the polar summer mesopause region. These clouds have been known since the late 19th century. Current physical understanding of NLCs is based on numerous observational and theoretical studies, in recent years especially observations from satellites and by lidars from ground. Theoretical studies based on numerical models that simulate NLCs with the underlying microphysical processes are uncommon. Up to date no three-dimensional numerical simulations of NLCs exist that take all relevant dynamical scales into account, i.e., from the planetary scale down to gravity waves and turbulence. Rather, modeling is usually restricted to certain flow regimes. In this study we make a more rigorous attempt and simulate NLC formation in the environment of the general circulation of the mesopause region by explicitly including gravity waves motions. For this purpose we couple the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmosphere (CARMA) to gravity-wave resolving dynamical fields simulated beforehand with the Kuehlungsborn Mechanistic Circulation Model (KMCM). In our case, the KMCM is run with a horizontal resolution of T120 which corresponds to a minimum horizontal wavelength of 350 km. This restriction causes the resolved gravity waves to be somewhat biased to larger scales. The simulated general circulation is dynamically controlled by these waves in a self-consitent fashion and provides realistic temperatures and wind-fields for July conditions. Assuming a water vapor mixing ratio profile in agreement with current observations results in reasonable supersaturations of up to 100. In a first step, CARMA is applied to a horizontal section covering the Northern hemisphere. The vertical resolution is 120 levels ranging from 72 to 101 km. In this paper we will present initial results of this coupled dynamical microphysical model focussing on the interaction of waves and turbulent diffusion with NLC-microphysics.

Neurite, a Finite Difference Large Scale Parallel Program for the Simulation of Electrical Signal Propagation in Neurites under Mechanical Loading

PubMed Central

García-Grajales, Julián A.; Rucabado, Gabriel; García-Dopico, Antonio; Peña, José-María; Jérusalem, Antoine

2015-01-01

With the growing body of research on traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, computational neuroscience has recently focused its modeling efforts on neuronal functional deficits following mechanical loading. However, in most of these efforts, cell damage is generally only characterized by purely mechanistic criteria, functions of quantities such as stress, strain or their corresponding rates. The modeling of functional deficits in neurites as a consequence of macroscopic mechanical insults has been rarely explored. In particular, a quantitative mechanically based model of electrophysiological impairment in neuronal cells, Neurite, has only very recently been proposed. In this paper, we present the implementation details of this model: a finite difference parallel program for simulating electrical signal propagation along neurites under mechanical loading. Following the application of a macroscopic strain at a given strain rate produced by a mechanical insult, Neurite is able to simulate the resulting neuronal electrical signal propagation, and thus the corresponding functional deficits. The simulation of the coupled mechanical and electrophysiological behaviors requires computational expensive calculations that increase in complexity as the network of the simulated cells grows. The solvers implemented in Neurite—explicit and implicit—were therefore parallelized using graphics processing units in order to reduce the burden of the simulation costs of large scale scenarios. Cable Theory and Hodgkin-Huxley models were implemented to account for the electrophysiological passive and active regions of a neurite, respectively, whereas a coupled mechanical model accounting for the neurite mechanical behavior within its surrounding medium was adopted as a link between electrophysiology and mechanics. This paper provides the details of the parallel implementation of Neurite, along with three different application examples: a long myelinated axon, a segmented dendritic tree, and a damaged axon. The capabilities of the program to deal with large scale scenarios, segmented neuronal structures, and functional deficits under mechanical loading are specifically highlighted. PMID:25680098

Implementation of sediment dynamics in a global integrated assessment model for an improved simulation of nutrient retention and transfers in surface freshwaters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilmin, L.; Beusen, A.; Mogollón, J.; Bouwman, L.

2017-12-01

Sediment dynamics play a significant role in river biogeochemical functioning. They notably control the transfer of particle-bound nutrients, have a direct influence on light availability for primary production, and particle accumulation can affect oxic conditions of river beds. In the perspective of improving our current understanding of large scale nutrient fluxes in rivers, it is hence necessary to include these dynamics in global models. In this scope, we implement particle accumulation and remobilization in a coupled global hydrology-nutrient model (IMAGE-GNM), at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. The transfer of soil loss from natural and agricultural lands is simulated mechanistically, from headwater streams to estuaries. First tests of the model are performed in the Mississippi river basin. At a yearly time step for the period 1978-2000, the average difference between simulated and measured suspended sediment concentrations at the most downstream monitoring station is 25%. Sediment retention is estimated in the different Strahler stream orders, in lakes and reservoirs. We discuss: 1) the distribution of sediment loads to small streams, which has a significant effect on transfers through watersheds and larger scale river fluxes and 2) the potential effect of damming on the fate of particle-bound nutrients. These new developments are crucial for future assessments of large scale nutrient and carbon fluxes in river systems.

Response of the tropical Pacific to abrupt climate change 8,200 years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atwood, A. R.; Battisti, D.; Bitz, C. M.; Sachs, J. P.

2017-12-01

The relatively stable climate of the Holocene epoch was punctuated by a period of large and abrupt climate change ca. 8,200 yr BP, when an outburst of glacial meltwater into the Labrador Sea drove large and abrupt climate changes across the globe. However, little is known about the response of the tropical Pacific to this event. We present the first evidence for large perturbations to the eastern tropical Pacific climate, based on sedimentary biomarker and hydrogen isotopic records from a freshwater lake in the Galápagos Islands. We inform these reconstructions with freshwater forcing simulations performed with the Community Climate System Model version 4. Together, the biomarker records and model simulations provide evidence for a mechanistic link between (1) a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the eastern equatorial Pacific and (2) decreased frequency and/or intensity of Eastern Pacific El Niño events during the 8,200 BP event. While climate theory and modeling studies support a southward shift of the ITCZ in response to a weakened AMOC, the dynamical drivers for the observed change in ENSO variability are less well developed. To explore these linkages, we perform simulations with an intermediate complexity model of the tropical Pacific. These results provide valuable insight into the controls of tropical Pacific climate variability and the mechanisms behind the global response to abrupt climate change.

Numerical simulation of two-phase flow for sediment transport in the inner-surf and swash zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakhtyar, R.; Barry, D. A.; Yeganeh-Bakhtiary, A.; Li, L.; Parlange, J.-Y.; Sander, G. C.

2010-03-01

A two-dimensional two-phase flow framework for fluid-sediment flow simulation in the surf and swash zones was described. Propagation, breaking, uprush and backwash of waves on sloping beaches were studied numerically with an emphasis on fluid hydrodynamics and sediment transport characteristics. The model includes interactive fluid-solid forces and intergranular stresses in the moving sediment layer. In the Euler-Euler approach adopted, two phases were defined using the Navier-Stokes equations with interphase coupling for momentum conservation. The k-ɛ closure model and volume of fluid approach were used to describe the turbulence and tracking of the free surface, respectively. Numerical simulations explored incident wave conditions, specifically spilling and plunging breakers, on both dissipative and intermediate beaches. It was found that the spatial variation of sediment concentration in the swash zone is asymmetric, while the temporal behavior is characterized by maximum sediment concentrations at the start and end of the swash cycle. The numerical results also indicated that the maximum turbulent kinetic energy and sediment flux occurs near the wave-breaking point. These predictions are in general agreement with previous observations, while the model describes the fluid and sediment phase characteristics in much more detail than existing measurements. With direct quantifications of velocity, turbulent kinetic energy, sediment concentration and flux, the model provides a useful approach to improve mechanistic understanding of hydrodynamic and sediment transport in the nearshore zone.

Integration of Basic Knowledge Models for the Simulation of Cereal Foods Processing and Properties.

PubMed

Kristiawan, Magdalena; Kansou, Kamal; Valle, Guy Della

Cereal processing (breadmaking, extrusion, pasting, etc.) covers a range of mechanisms that, despite their diversity, can be often reduced to a succession of two core phenomena: (1) the transition from a divided solid medium (the flour) to a continuous one through hydration, mechanical, biochemical, and thermal actions and (2) the expansion of a continuous matrix toward a porous structure as a result of the growth of bubble nuclei either by yeast fermentation or by water vaporization after a sudden pressure drop. Modeling them is critical for the domain, but can be quite challenging to address with mechanistic approaches relying on partial differential equations. In this chapter we present alternative approaches through basic knowledge models (BKM) that integrate scientific and expert knowledge, and possess operational interest for domain specialists. Using these BKMs, simulations of two cereal foods processes, extrusion and breadmaking, are provided by focusing on the two core phenomena. To support the use by non-specialists, these BKMs are implemented as computer tools, a Knowledge-Based System developed for the modeling of the flour mixing operation or Ludovic ® , a simulation software for twin screw extrusion. They can be applied to a wide domain of compositions, provided that the data on product rheological properties are available. Finally, it is stated that the use of such systems can help food engineers to design cereal food products and predict their texture properties.

Pore-scale simulation of CO2-water-rock interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, H.; Molins, S.; Steefel, C. I.; DePaolo, D. J.

2017-12-01

In Geologic Carbon Storage (GCS) systems, the migration of scCO2 versus CO2-acidifed brine ultimately determines the extent of mineral trapping and caprock integrity, i.e. the long-term storage efficiency and security. While continuum scale multiphase reactive transport models are valuable for large scale investigations, they typically (over-)simplify pore-scale dynamics and cannot capture local heterogeneities that may be important. Therefore, pore-scale models are needed in order to provide mechanistic understanding of how fine scale structural variations and heterogeneous processes influence the transport and geochemistry in the context of multiphase flow, and to inform parameterization of continuum scale modeling. In this study, we investigate the interplay of different processes at pore scale (e.g. diffusion, reactions, and multiphase flow) through the coupling of a well-developed multiphase flow simulator with a sophisticated reactive transport code. The objectives are to understand where brine displaced by scCO2 will reside in a rough pore/fracture, and how the CO2-water-rock interactions may affect the redistribution of different phases. In addition, the coupled code will provide a platform for model testing in pore-scale multiphase reactive transport problems.

Overview: early history of crop growth and photosynthesis modeling.

PubMed

El-Sharkawy, Mabrouk A

2011-02-01

As in industrial and engineering systems, there is a need to quantitatively study and analyze the many constituents of complex natural biological systems as well as agro-ecosystems via research-based mechanistic modeling. This objective is normally addressed by developing mathematically built descriptions of multilevel biological processes to provide biologists a means to integrate quantitatively experimental research findings that might lead to a better understanding of the whole systems and their interactions with surrounding environments. Aided with the power of computational capacities associated with computer technology then available, pioneering cropping systems simulations took place in the second half of the 20th century by several research groups across continents. This overview summarizes that initial pioneering effort made to simulate plant growth and photosynthesis of crop canopies, focusing on the discovery of gaps that exist in the current scientific knowledge. Examples are given for those gaps where experimental research was needed to improve the validity and application of the constructed models, so that their benefit to mankind was enhanced. Such research necessitates close collaboration among experimentalists and model builders while adopting a multidisciplinary/inter-institutional approach. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bridging scales through multiscale modeling: a case study on protein kinase A.

PubMed

Boras, Britton W; Hirakis, Sophia P; Votapka, Lane W; Malmstrom, Robert D; Amaro, Rommie E; McCulloch, Andrew D

2015-01-01

The goal of multiscale modeling in biology is to use structurally based physico-chemical models to integrate across temporal and spatial scales of biology and thereby improve mechanistic understanding of, for example, how a single mutation can alter organism-scale phenotypes. This approach may also inform therapeutic strategies or identify candidate drug targets that might otherwise have been overlooked. However, in many cases, it remains unclear how best to synthesize information obtained from various scales and analysis approaches, such as atomistic molecular models, Markov state models (MSM), subcellular network models, and whole cell models. In this paper, we use protein kinase A (PKA) activation as a case study to explore how computational methods that model different physical scales can complement each other and integrate into an improved multiscale representation of the biological mechanisms. Using measured crystal structures, we show how molecular dynamics (MD) simulations coupled with atomic-scale MSMs can provide conformations for Brownian dynamics (BD) simulations to feed transitional states and kinetic parameters into protein-scale MSMs. We discuss how milestoning can give reaction probabilities and forward-rate constants of cAMP association events by seamlessly integrating MD and BD simulation scales. These rate constants coupled with MSMs provide a robust representation of the free energy landscape, enabling access to kinetic, and thermodynamic parameters unavailable from current experimental data. These approaches have helped to illuminate the cooperative nature of PKA activation in response to distinct cAMP binding events. Collectively, this approach exemplifies a general strategy for multiscale model development that is applicable to a wide range of biological problems.

Development and deployment of a water-crop-nutrient simulation model embedded in a web application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langella, Giuliano; Basile, Angelo; Coppola, Antonio; Manna, Piero; Orefice, Nadia; Terribile, Fabio

2016-04-01

It is long time by now that scientific research on environmental and agricultural issues spent large effort in the development and application of models for prediction and simulation in spatial and temporal domains. This is fulfilled by studying and observing natural processes (e.g. rainfall, water and chemicals transport in soils, crop growth) whose spatiotemporal behavior can be reproduced for instance to predict irrigation and fertilizer requirements and yield quantities/qualities. In this work a mechanistic model to simulate water flow and solute transport in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum is presented. This desktop computer program was written according to the specific requirement of developing web applications. The model is capable to solve the following issues all together: (a) water balance and (b) solute transport; (c) crop modelling; (d) GIS-interoperability; (e) embedability in web-based geospatial Decision Support Systems (DSS); (f) adaptability at different scales of application; and (g) ease of code modification. We maintained the desktop characteristic in order to further develop (e.g. integrate novel features) and run the key program modules for testing and validation purporses, but we also developed a middleware component to allow the model run the simulations directly over the web, without software to be installed. The GIS capabilities allows the web application to make simulations in a user-defined region of interest (delimited over a geographical map) without the need to specify the proper combination of model parameters. It is possible since the geospatial database collects information on pedology, climate, crop parameters and soil hydraulic characteristics. Pedological attributes include the spatial distribution of key soil data such as soil profile horizons and texture. Further, hydrological parameters are selected according to the knowledge about the spatial distribution of soils. The availability and definition in the geospatial domain of these attributes allow the simulation outputs at a different spatial scale. Two different applications were implemented using the same framework but with different configurations of the software pieces making the physically based modelling chain: an irrigation tool simulating water requirements and their dates and a fertilization tool for optimizing in particular mineral nitrogen adds.

Productivity of "Collisions Generate Heat" for Reconciling an Energy Model with Mechanistic Reasoning: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scherr, Rachel E.; Robertson, Amy D.

2015-01-01

We observe teachers in professional development courses about energy constructing mechanistic accounts of energy transformations. We analyze a case in which teachers investigating adiabatic compression develop a model of the transformation of kinetic energy to thermal energy. Among their ideas is the idea that thermal energy is generated as a…

Molecular Mechanisms of ZnO Nanoparticle Dispersion in Solution: Modeling of Surfactant Association, Electrostatic Shielding and Counter Ion Dynamics.

PubMed

Duchstein, Patrick; Milek, Theodor; Zahn, Dirk

2015-01-01

Molecular models of 5 nm sized ZnO/Zn(OH)2 core-shell nanoparticles in ethanolic solution were derived as scale-up models (based on an earlier model created from ion-by-ion aggregation and self-organization) and subjected to mechanistic analyses of surface stabilization by block-copolymers. The latter comprise a poly-methacrylate chain accounting for strong surfactant association to the nanoparticle by hydrogen bonding and salt-bridges. While dangling poly-ethylene oxide chains provide only a limited degree of sterical hindering to nanoparticle agglomeration, the key mechanism of surface stabilization is electrostatic shielding arising from the acrylates and a halo of Na+ counter ions associated to the nanoparticle. Molecular dynamics simulations reveal different solvent shells and distance-dependent mobility of ions and solvent molecules. From this, we provide a molecular rationale of effective particle size, net charge and polarizability of the nanoparticles in solution.

Molecular Mechanisms of ZnO Nanoparticle Dispersion in Solution: Modeling of Surfactant Association, Electrostatic Shielding and Counter Ion Dynamics

PubMed Central

Duchstein, Patrick; Milek, Theodor; Zahn, Dirk

2015-01-01

Molecular models of 5 nm sized ZnO/Zn(OH)2 core-shell nanoparticles in ethanolic solution were derived as scale-up models (based on an earlier model created from ion-by-ion aggregation and self-organization) and subjected to mechanistic analyses of surface stabilization by block-copolymers. The latter comprise a poly-methacrylate chain accounting for strong surfactant association to the nanoparticle by hydrogen bonding and salt-bridges. While dangling poly-ethylene oxide chains provide only a limited degree of sterical hindering to nanoparticle agglomeration, the key mechanism of surface stabilization is electrostatic shielding arising from the acrylates and a halo of Na+ counter ions associated to the nanoparticle. Molecular dynamics simulations reveal different solvent shells and distance-dependent mobility of ions and solvent molecules. From this, we provide a molecular rationale of effective particle size, net charge and polarizability of the nanoparticles in solution. PMID:25962096

Impacts of Climate Change on Biofuels Production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melillo, Jerry M.

2014-04-30

The overall goal of this research project was to improve and use our biogeochemistry model, TEM, to simulate the effects of climate change and other environmental changes on the production of biofuel feedstocks. We used the improved version of TEM that is coupled with the economic model, EPPA, a part of MIT’s Earth System Model, to explore how alternative uses of land, including land for biofuels production, can help society meet proposed climate targets. During the course of this project, we have made refinements to TEM that include development of a more mechanistic plant module, with improved ecohydrology and considerationmore » of plant-water relations, and a more detailed treatment of soil nitrogen dynamics, especially processes that add or remove nitrogen from ecosystems. We have documented our changes to TEM and used the model to explore the effects on production in land ecosystems, including changes in biofuels production.« less

New mechanistically based model for predicting reduction of biosolids waste by ozonation of return activated sludge.

PubMed

Isazadeh, Siavash; Feng, Min; Urbina Rivas, Luis Enrique; Frigon, Dominic

2014-04-15

Two pilot-scale activated sludge reactors were operated for 98 days to provide the necessary data to develop and validate a new mathematical model predicting the reduction of biosolids production by ozonation of the return activated sludge (RAS). Three ozone doses were tested during the study. In addition to the pilot-scale study, laboratory-scale experiments were conducted with mixed liquor suspended solids and with pure cultures to parameterize the biomass inactivation process during exposure to ozone. The experiments revealed that biomass inactivation occurred even at the lowest doses, but that it was not associated with extensive COD solubilization. For validation, the model was used to simulate the temporal dynamics of the pilot-scale operational data. Increasing the description accuracy of the inactivation process improved the precision of the model in predicting the operational data. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Spreadsheet for Estimating Soil Water Characteristic Curves (SWCC)

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-01

Federal Highway Admin- istration (FHWA), was designed to simulate the behavior of pavement and subgrade materials over several years of operation. The...Guide for mechanistic- empirical design of new and rehabilitated pavement structures. TRB-NCHRP

Modeling metal binding to soils: the role of natural organic matter.

PubMed

Gustafsson, Jon Petter; Pechová, Pavlina; Berggren, Dan

2003-06-15

The use of mechanistically based models to simulate the solution concentrations of heavy metals in soils is complicated by the presence of different sorbents that may bind metals. In this study, the binding of Zn, Pb, Cu, and Cd by 14 different Swedish soil samples was investigated. For 10 of the soils, it was found that the Stockholm Humic Model (SHM) was able to describe the acid-base characteristics, when using the concentrations of "active" humic substances and Al as fitting parameters. Two additional soils could be modeled when ion exchange to clay was also considered, using a component additivity approach. For dissolved Zn, Cd, Ca, and Mg reasonable model fits were produced when the metal-humic complexation parameters were identical for the 12 soils modeled. However, poor fits were obtained for Pb and Cu in Aquept B horizons. In two of the soil suspensions, the Lund A and Romfartuna Bhs, the calculated speciation agreed well with results obtained by using cation-exchange membranes. The results suggest that organic matter is an important sorbent for metals in many surface horizons of soils in temperate and boreal climates, and the necessity of properly accounting for the competition from Al in simulations of dissolved metal concentrations is stressed.

Elucidating the thermal, chemical, and mechanical mechanisms of ultraviolet ablation in poly(methyl methacrylate) via molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Conforti, Patrick F; Prasad, Manish; Garrison, Barbara J

2008-08-01

[Figure: see text]. Laser ablation harnesses photon energy to remove material from a surface. Although applications such as laser-assisted in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) surgery, lithography, and nanoscale device fabrication take advantage of this process, a better understanding the underlying mechanism of ablation in polymeric materials remains much sought after. Molecular simulation is a particularly attractive technique to study the basic aspects of ablation because it allows control over specific process parameters and enables observation of microscopic mechanistic details. This Account describes a hybrid molecular dynamics-Monte Carlo technique to simulate laser ablation in poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA). It also discusses the impact of thermal and chemical excitation on the ensuing ejection processes. We used molecular dynamics simulation to study the molecular interactions in a coarse-grained PMMA substrate following photon absorption. To ascertain the role of chemistry in initiating ablation, we embedded a Monte Carlo protocol within the simulation framework. These calculations permit chemical reactions to occur probabilistically during the molecular dynamics calculation using predetermined reaction pathways and Arrhenius rates. With this hybrid scheme, we can examine thermal and chemical pathways of decomposition separately. In the simulations, we observed distinct mechanisms of ablation for each type of photoexcitation pathway. Ablation via thermal processes is governed by a critical number of bond breaks following the deposition of energy. For the case in which an absorbed photon directly causes a bond scission, ablation occurs following the rapid chemical decomposition of material. A detailed analysis of the processes shows that a critical energy for ablation can describe this complex series of events. The simulations show a decrease in the critical energy with a greater amount of photochemistry. Additionally, the simulations demonstrate the effects of the energy deposition rate on the ejection mechanism. When the energy is deposited rapidly, not allowing for mechanical relaxation of the sample, the formation of a pressure wave and subsequent tensile wave dominates the ejection process. This study provides insight into the influence of thermal, chemical, and mechanical processes in PMMA and facilitates greater understanding of the complex nature of polymer ablation. These simulations complement experiments that have used chemical design to harness the photochemical properties of materials to enhance laser ablation. We successfully fit the results of the simulations to established analytical models of both photothermal and photochemical ablation and demonstrate their relevance. Although the simulations are for PMMA, the mechanistic concepts are applicable to a large range of systems and provide a conceptual foundation for interpretation of experimental data.

A new mechanistic framework to predict OCS fluxes in soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauze, Joana; Ogee, Jérôme; Launois, Thomas; Kesselmeier, Jürgen; Van Diest, Heidi; Wingate, Lisa

2015-04-01

A better description of the amplitude of photosynthetic and respiratory gross CO2 fluxes at large scales is needed to improve our predictions of the current and future global CO2 cycle. Carbonyl sulfide (COS) is the most abundant sulphur gas in the atmosphere and has been proposed as a new tracer of gross photosynthesis, as the uptake of COS from the atmosphere is dominated by the activity of carbonic anhydrase (CA), an enzyme abundant in leaves that also catalyses CO2 hydration during photosynthesis. However, soils also exchange COS with the atmosphere and there is growing evidence that this flux must also be accounted for in atmospheric budgets. In this context a new mechanistic description of soil-atmosphere COS exchange is clearly needed. Soils can take up COS from the atmosphere as the soil biota also contain CA, and COS emissions from soils have also been reported in agricultural fields or anoxic soils. Previous studies have also shown that soil COS fluxes present an optimum soil water content and soil temperature. Here we propose a new mechanistic framework to predict the fluxes of COS between the soils and the atmosphere. We describe the COS soil budget by a first-order reaction-diffusion-production equation, assuming that the hydrolysis of COS by CA is total and irreversible. To describe COS diffusion through the soil matrix, we use different formulations of soil air-filled pore space and temperature, depending on the turbulence level above the soil surface. Using this model we are able to explain the observed presence of an optimum temperature for soil COS uptake and show how this optimum can shift to cooler temperatures in the presence of soil COS emissions. Our model can also explain the observed optimum with soil moisture content previously described in the literature (e.g. Van Diest & Kesselmeier, 2008) as a result of diffusional constraints on COS hydrolysis. These diffusional constraints are also responsible for the response of COS uptake to soil weight and depth observed by Kesselmeier et al. (1999). In order to simulate the exact COS uptake rates and patterns observed on several soils collected from a range of biomes (Van Diest & Kesselmeier, 2008) different CA activities had to be evoked in each soil type, coherent with the expected soil microbial population size and diversity. A better description of the drivers governing soil CA activity and COS emissions from soils is needed before incorporating our new mechanistic model of soil-atmosphere COS uptake in large-scale ecosystem models and COS atmospheric budgets.

Development and Validation of a Weather-Based Model for Predicting Infection of Loquat Fruit by Fusicladium eriobotryae

PubMed Central

González-Domínguez, Elisa; Armengol, Josep; Rossi, Vittorio

2014-01-01

A mechanistic, dynamic model was developed to predict infection of loquat fruit by conidia of Fusicladium eriobotryae, the causal agent of loquat scab. The model simulates scab infection periods and their severity through the sub-processes of spore dispersal, infection, and latency (i.e., the state variables); change from one state to the following one depends on environmental conditions and on processes described by mathematical equations. Equations were developed using published data on F. eriobotryae mycelium growth, conidial germination, infection, and conidial dispersion pattern. The model was then validated by comparing model output with three independent data sets. The model accurately predicts the occurrence and severity of infection periods as well as the progress of loquat scab incidence on fruit (with concordance correlation coefficients >0.95). Model output agreed with expert assessment of the disease severity in seven loquat-growing seasons. Use of the model for scheduling fungicide applications in loquat orchards may help optimise scab management and reduce fungicide applications. PMID:25233340

The search of "canonical" explanations for the cerebral cortex.

PubMed

Plebe, Alessio

2018-06-15

This paper addresses a fundamental line of research in neuroscience: the identification of a putative neural processing core of the cerebral cortex, often claimed to be "canonical". This "canonical" core would be shared by the entire cortex, and would explain why it is so powerful and diversified in tasks and functions, yet so uniform in architecture. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the search for canonical explanations over the past 40 years, discussing the theoretical frameworks informing this research. It will highlight a bias that, in my opinion, has limited the success of this research project, that of overlooking the dimension of cortical development. The earliest explanation of the cerebral cortex as canonical was attempted by David Marr, deriving putative cortical circuits from general mathematical laws, loosely following a deductive-nomological account. Although Marr's theory turned out to be incorrect, one of its merits was to have put the issue of cortical circuit development at the top of his agenda. This aspect has been largely neglected in much of the research on canonical models that has followed. Models proposed in the 1980s were conceived as mechanistic. They identified a small number of components that interacted as a basic circuit, with each component defined as a function. More recent models have been presented as idealized canonical computations, distinct from mechanistic explanations, due to the lack of identifiable cortical components. Currently, the entire enterprise of coming up with a single canonical explanation has been criticized as being misguided, and the premise of the uniformity of the cortex has been strongly challenged. This debate is analyzed here. The legacy of the canonical circuit concept is reflected in both positive and negative ways in recent large-scale brain projects, such as the Human Brain Project. One positive aspect is that these projects might achieve the aim of producing detailed simulations of cortical electrical activity, a negative one regards whether they will be able to find ways of simulating how circuits actually develop.

Assessment and improvement of biotransfer models to cow's milk and beef used in exposure assessment tools for organic pollutants.

PubMed

Takaki, Koki; Wade, Andrew J; Collins, Chris D

2015-11-01

The aim of this study was to assess and improve the accuracy of biotransfer models for the organic pollutants (PCBs, PCDD/Fs, PBDEs, PFCAs, and pesticides) into cow's milk and beef used in human exposure assessment. Metabolic rate in cattle is known as a key parameter for this biotransfer, however few experimental data and no simulation methods are currently available. In this research, metabolic rate was estimated using existing QSAR biodegradation models of microorganisms (BioWIN) and fish (EPI-HL and IFS-HL). This simulated metabolic rate was then incorporated into the mechanistic cattle biotransfer models (RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA, and CKow). The goodness of fit tests showed that RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA model performances were significantly improved using either of the QSARs when comparing the new model outputs to observed data. The CKow model is the only one that separates the processes in the gut and liver. This model showed the lowest residual error of all the models tested when the BioWIN model was used to represent the ruminant metabolic process in the gut and the two fish QSARs were used to represent the metabolic process in the liver. Our testing included EUSES and CalTOX which are KOW-regression models that are widely used in regulatory assessment. New regressions based on the simulated rate of the two metabolic processes are also proposed as an alternative to KOW-regression models for a screening risk assessment. The modified CKow model is more physiologically realistic, but has equivalent usability to existing KOW-regression models for estimating cattle biotransfer of organic pollutants. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Multiscale modeling of mucosal immune responses

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Computational modeling techniques are playing increasingly important roles in advancing a systems-level mechanistic understanding of biological processes. Computer simulations guide and underpin experimental and clinical efforts. This study presents ENteric Immune Simulator (ENISI), a multiscale modeling tool for modeling the mucosal immune responses. ENISI's modeling environment can simulate in silico experiments from molecular signaling pathways to tissue level events such as tissue lesion formation. ENISI's architecture integrates multiple modeling technologies including ABM (agent-based modeling), ODE (ordinary differential equations), SDE (stochastic modeling equations), and PDE (partial differential equations). This paper focuses on the implementation and developmental challenges of ENISI. A multiscale model of mucosal immune responses during colonic inflammation, including CD4+ T cell differentiation and tissue level cell-cell interactions was developed to illustrate the capabilities, power and scope of ENISI MSM. Background Computational techniques are becoming increasingly powerful and modeling tools for biological systems are of greater needs. Biological systems are inherently multiscale, from molecules to tissues and from nano-seconds to a lifespan of several years or decades. ENISI MSM integrates multiple modeling technologies to understand immunological processes from signaling pathways within cells to lesion formation at the tissue level. This paper examines and summarizes the technical details of ENISI, from its initial version to its latest cutting-edge implementation. Implementation Object-oriented programming approach is adopted to develop a suite of tools based on ENISI. Multiple modeling technologies are integrated to visualize tissues, cells as well as proteins; furthermore, performance matching between the scales is addressed. Conclusion We used ENISI MSM for developing predictive multiscale models of the mucosal immune system during gut inflammation. Our modeling predictions dissect the mechanisms by which effector CD4+ T cell responses contribute to tissue damage in the gut mucosa following immune dysregulation. PMID:26329787

Multiscale modeling of mucosal immune responses.

PubMed

Mei, Yongguo; Abedi, Vida; Carbo, Adria; Zhang, Xiaoying; Lu, Pinyi; Philipson, Casandra; Hontecillas, Raquel; Hoops, Stefan; Liles, Nathan; Bassaganya-Riera, Josep

2015-01-01

Computational techniques are becoming increasingly powerful and modeling tools for biological systems are of greater needs. Biological systems are inherently multiscale, from molecules to tissues and from nano-seconds to a lifespan of several years or decades. ENISI MSM integrates multiple modeling technologies to understand immunological processes from signaling pathways within cells to lesion formation at the tissue level. This paper examines and summarizes the technical details of ENISI, from its initial version to its latest cutting-edge implementation. Object-oriented programming approach is adopted to develop a suite of tools based on ENISI. Multiple modeling technologies are integrated to visualize tissues, cells as well as proteins; furthermore, performance matching between the scales is addressed. We used ENISI MSM for developing predictive multiscale models of the mucosal immune system during gut inflammation. Our modeling predictions dissect the mechanisms by which effector CD4+ T cell responses contribute to tissue damage in the gut mucosa following immune dysregulation.Computational modeling techniques are playing increasingly important roles in advancing a systems-level mechanistic understanding of biological processes. Computer simulations guide and underpin experimental and clinical efforts. This study presents ENteric Immune Simulator (ENISI), a multiscale modeling tool for modeling the mucosal immune responses. ENISI's modeling environment can simulate in silico experiments from molecular signaling pathways to tissue level events such as tissue lesion formation. ENISI's architecture integrates multiple modeling technologies including ABM (agent-based modeling), ODE (ordinary differential equations), SDE (stochastic modeling equations), and PDE (partial differential equations). This paper focuses on the implementation and developmental challenges of ENISI. A multiscale model of mucosal immune responses during colonic inflammation, including CD4+ T cell differentiation and tissue level cell-cell interactions was developed to illustrate the capabilities, power and scope of ENISI MSM.

Distinguishing Antimicrobial Models with Different Resistance Mechanisms via Population Pharmacodynamic Modeling

PubMed Central

Jacobs, Matthieu; Grégoire, Nicolas; Couet, William; Bulitta, Jurgen B.

2016-01-01

Semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modeling is increasingly used for antimicrobial drug development and optimization of dosage regimens, but systematic simulation-estimation studies to distinguish between competing PD models are lacking. This study compared the ability of static and dynamic in vitro infection models to distinguish between models with different resistance mechanisms and support accurate and precise parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) were performed for models with one susceptible bacterial population without (M1) or with a resting stage (M2), a one population model with adaptive resistance (M5), models with pre-existing susceptible and resistant populations without (M3) or with (M4) inter-conversion, and a model with two pre-existing populations with adaptive resistance (M6). For each model, 200 datasets of the total bacterial population were simulated over 24h using static antibiotic concentrations (256-fold concentration range) or over 48h under dynamic conditions (dosing every 12h; elimination half-life: 1h). Twelve-hundred random datasets (each containing 20 curves for static or four curves for dynamic conditions) were generated by bootstrapping. Each dataset was estimated by all six models via population PD modeling to compare bias and precision. For M1 and M3, most parameter estimates were unbiased (<10%) and had good imprecision (<30%). However, parameters for adaptive resistance and inter-conversion for M2, M4, M5 and M6 had poor bias and large imprecision under static and dynamic conditions. For datasets that only contained viable counts of the total population, common statistical criteria and diagnostic plots did not support sound identification of the true resistance mechanism. Therefore, it seems advisable to quantify resistant bacteria and characterize their MICs and resistance mechanisms to support extended simulations and translate from in vitro experiments to animal infection models and ultimately patients. PMID:26967893

Fundamental kinetics and mechanistic pathways for oxidation reactions in supercritical water

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webley, Paul A.; Tester, Jefferson W.

1988-01-01

Oxidation of the products of human metabolism in supercritical water has been shown to be an efficient way to accomplish the on-board water/waste recycling in future long-term space flights. Studies of the oxidation kinetics of methane to carbon dioxide in supercritical water are presented in this paper in order to enhance the fundamental understanding of the oxidation of human waste compounds in supercritical water. It is concluded that, although the elementary reaction models remain the best hope for simulating oxidation in supercritical water, several modifications to existing mechanisms need to be made to account for the role of water in the reaction mechanism.

Residence time revisited: The role of radiocarbon in reactive transport modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, C. R.; Druhan, J. L.; Schulz, M. S.

2016-12-01

In recent years, our changing understanding of the dominant controls on soil carbon (C) storage and stability has cast a greater emphasis on the importance of physical and hydrological processes. These shifts in our understanding of C cycling have fostered increasingly commonplace measurements of soil physical and hydrological parameters in soil C studies (e.g. specific surface area, quantitative mineralogy, porosity) that reflect the importance of microbial accessibility to soil C. As a result, we are now poised to reassess the applicability of our approaches for conceptualizing and modeling soil C dynamics, particularly with regard to our representation of soil C pools. The goal of this work is to explore how the quantity and turnover of C, as approximated by radiocarbon measurements, is mechanistically linked to the physical and hydrologic parameters of soils. We utilize a reactive transport (RT) approach to link hydrologic transport, geochemical transformations and microbial activity influencing the magnitude and residence time of different carbon pools under variably saturated conditions. A newly developed version of the CrunchTope software is used to explicitly simulate the coupled transport, transformation, fractionation and decay of the three isotopes of carbon (12C, 13C and 14C) through a mechanistic framework. We constrain this model with a high-resolution dataset of soil carbon content, stable isotope composition and radiocarbon ages as well as physical and hydrologic data measured from a chronosequence of soils located near Santa Cruz, California. The Santa Cruz dataset is highly amenable to this task in that it demonstrates both seasonal and millennial variations in soil C distributions and associated soil properties. We present data from a series of simulations examining the sensitivity of C stocks, fluxes and mean residence times to transient processes spanning a range of temporal scales, including redox conditions, fluid flow and the distribution of reactive mineral surfaces. The results of these efforts show the promise of a modeling approach where the varied residence time of soil C emerges from the dynamic physical and hydrologic properties of the model rather than from an a priori assignment of operationally defined pools.

Combining the ‘bottom up’ and ‘top down’ approaches in pharmacokinetic modelling: fitting PBPK models to observed clinical data

PubMed Central

Tsamandouras, Nikolaos; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin; Aarons, Leon

2015-01-01

Pharmacokinetic models range from being entirely exploratory and empirical, to semi-mechanistic and ultimately complex physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. This choice is conditional on the modelling purpose as well as the amount and quality of the available data. The main advantage of PBPK models is that they can be used to extrapolate outside the studied population and experimental conditions. The trade-off for this advantage is a complex system of differential equations with a considerable number of model parameters. When these parameters cannot be informed from in vitro or in silico experiments they are usually optimized with respect to observed clinical data. Parameter estimation in complex models is a challenging task associated with many methodological issues which are discussed here with specific recommendations. Concepts such as structural and practical identifiability are described with regards to PBPK modelling and the value of experimental design and sensitivity analyses is sketched out. Parameter estimation approaches are discussed, while we also highlight the importance of not neglecting the covariance structure between model parameters and the uncertainty and population variability that is associated with them. Finally the possibility of using model order reduction techniques and minimal semi-mechanistic models that retain the physiological-mechanistic nature only in the parts of the model which are relevant to the desired modelling purpose is emphasized. Careful attention to all the above issues allows us to integrate successfully information from in vitro or in silico experiments together with information deriving from observed clinical data and develop mechanistically sound models with clinical relevance. PMID:24033787

An Open Source Simulation Model for Soil and Sediment Bioturbation

PubMed Central

Schiffers, Katja; Teal, Lorna Rachel; Travis, Justin Mark John; Solan, Martin

2011-01-01

Bioturbation is one of the most widespread forms of ecological engineering and has significant implications for the structure and functioning of ecosystems, yet our understanding of the processes involved in biotic mixing remains incomplete. One reason is that, despite their value and utility, most mathematical models currently applied to bioturbation data tend to neglect aspects of the natural complexity of bioturbation in favour of mathematical simplicity. At the same time, the abstract nature of these approaches limits the application of such models to a limited range of users. Here, we contend that a movement towards process-based modelling can improve both the representation of the mechanistic basis of bioturbation and the intuitiveness of modelling approaches. In support of this initiative, we present an open source modelling framework that explicitly simulates particle displacement and a worked example to facilitate application and further development. The framework combines the advantages of rule-based lattice models with the application of parameterisable probability density functions to generate mixing on the lattice. Model parameters can be fitted by experimental data and describe particle displacement at the spatial and temporal scales at which bioturbation data is routinely collected. By using the same model structure across species, but generating species-specific parameters, a generic understanding of species-specific bioturbation behaviour can be achieved. An application to a case study and comparison with a commonly used model attest the predictive power of the approach. PMID:22162997

An open source simulation model for soil and sediment bioturbation.

PubMed

Schiffers, Katja; Teal, Lorna Rachel; Travis, Justin Mark John; Solan, Martin

2011-01-01

Bioturbation is one of the most widespread forms of ecological engineering and has significant implications for the structure and functioning of ecosystems, yet our understanding of the processes involved in biotic mixing remains incomplete. One reason is that, despite their value and utility, most mathematical models currently applied to bioturbation data tend to neglect aspects of the natural complexity of bioturbation in favour of mathematical simplicity. At the same time, the abstract nature of these approaches limits the application of such models to a limited range of users. Here, we contend that a movement towards process-based modelling can improve both the representation of the mechanistic basis of bioturbation and the intuitiveness of modelling approaches. In support of this initiative, we present an open source modelling framework that explicitly simulates particle displacement and a worked example to facilitate application and further development. The framework combines the advantages of rule-based lattice models with the application of parameterisable probability density functions to generate mixing on the lattice. Model parameters can be fitted by experimental data and describe particle displacement at the spatial and temporal scales at which bioturbation data is routinely collected. By using the same model structure across species, but generating species-specific parameters, a generic understanding of species-specific bioturbation behaviour can be achieved. An application to a case study and comparison with a commonly used model attest the predictive power of the approach.

Mechanistic modelling of cancer: some reflections from software engineering and philosophy of science.

PubMed

Cañete-Valdeón, José M; Wieringa, Roel; Smallbone, Kieran

2012-12-01

There is a growing interest in mathematical mechanistic modelling as a promising strategy for understanding tumour progression. This approach is accompanied by a methodological change of making research, in which models help to actively generate hypotheses instead of waiting for general principles to become apparent once sufficient data are accumulated. This paper applies recent research from philosophy of science to uncover three important problems of mechanistic modelling which may compromise its mainstream application, namely: the dilemma of formal and informal descriptions, the need to express degrees of confidence and the need of an argumentation framework. We report experience and research on similar problems from software engineering and provide evidence that the solutions adopted there can be transferred to the biological domain. We hope this paper can provoke new opportunities for further and profitable interdisciplinary research in the field.

Local calibration of the MEPDG for New Hampshire.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-10-01

This report summarizes the UNH results of a study to calibrate the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement : Design Guide (MEPDG) model for sites and conditions within New Hampshire. : MEPDG adds mechanistic understanding of material properties into methods f...

Draft user's guide for UDOT mechanistic-empirical pavement design.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-01

Validation of the new AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guides (MEPDG) nationally calibrated pavement distress and smoothness prediction models when applied under Utah conditions, and local calibration of the new hot-mix asphalt (HMA) p...

Simulation Based Low-Cost Composite Process Development at the US Air Force Research Laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rice, Brian P.; Lee, C. William; Curliss, David B.

2003-01-01

Low-cost composite research in the US Air Force Research Laboratory, Materials and Manufacturing Directorate, Organic Matrix Composites Branch has focused on the theme of affordable performance. Practically, this means that we use a very broad view when considering the affordability of composites. Factors such as material costs, labor costs, recurring and nonrecurring manufacturing costs are balanced against performance to arrive at the relative affordability vs. performance measure of merit. The research efforts discussed here are two projects focused on affordable processing of composites. The first topic is the use of a neural network scheme to model cure reaction kinetics, then utilize the kinetics coupled with simple heat transport models to predict, in real-time, future exotherms and control them. The neural network scheme is demonstrated to be very robust and a much more efficient method that mechanistic cure modeling approach. This enables very practical low-cost processing of thick composite parts. The second project is liquid composite molding (LCM) process simulation. LCM processing of large 3D integrated composite parts has been demonstrated to be a very cost effective way to produce large integrated aerospace components specific examples of LCM processes are resin transfer molding (RTM), vacuum assisted resin transfer molding (VARTM), and other similar approaches. LCM process simulation is a critical part of developing an LCM process approach. Flow simulation enables the development of the most robust approach to introducing resin into complex preforms. Furthermore, LCM simulation can be used in conjunction with flow front sensors to control the LCM process in real-time to account for preform or resin variability.

Comparing the performance of coupled soil-vegetation-atmosphere models at two contrasting field sites in South-West Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayler, S.; Wöhling, T.; Priesack, E.; Wizemann, H.-D.; Wulfmeyer, V.; Ingwersen, J.; Streck, T.

2012-04-01

The soil moisture, the energy balance at the land surface and the state of the lower atmosphere are closely linked by complex feedback processes. The vegetation acts as the interface between soil and atmosphere and plays an important role in this coupled system. Consequently, a consistent description of the fluxes of water, energy and carbon is a prerequisite for analyzing many problems in soil-, plant- and atmospheric research. To better understand the complex interplay of the involved processes, many numerical and physics-based soil-plant-atmosphere simulation models were developed during the last decades. As these models have been developed for different purposes, the degree of complexity in describing individual feedback processes can vary considerably. In models designed to predict soil moisture, for example, plants are often sufficiently represented by a simple sink term. If these models are calibrated, sometimes only one state variable and the corresponding calibration data type is used, e.g. soil water contents or pressure heads. In this case, vegetation properties and feedbacks between soil moisture, plant growth and stomatal conductivity are neglected to a large extent. Some crop models, in turn, pay little attention to modeling soil water transport. In a coupled soil-vegetation-atmosphere model, however, the interface between soil and atmosphere has to be consistent in all directions. As different data types such as soil moisture, leaf area development and evapotranspiration may contain contrasting information about the system under consideration, the fitting of such a model to a single data type may result in a poor agreement to another data type. The trade-off between the fittings to different data types can thereby be caused by structural inadequacies in the model or by errors in input and calibration data. In our study, we compare the Community Land Model CLM (version 3.5, offline mode) with different agricultural crop models to analyze the adequacy of their structural complexity on two winter wheat research fields under different climate in South-West Germany. We investigate the ability of the models to simultaneously fit measured soil water contents, leaf area development and actual evapotranspiration rates from eddy-covariance measurements. The calibration of the models is performed in a multi-criteria context using three objective functions, which describe the discrepancy between measurements and simulations of the three data types. We use the AMALGAM evolutionary search algorithm to simultaneously estimate the most important plant and soil hydraulic parameters. The results show that the trade-off in fitting soil moisture, leaf area development and evapotranspiration can be quite large for those models that represent plant processes by simple concepts. However, these trade-offs are smaller for the more mechanistic plant growth models, so that it can be expected that these optimized mechanistic models will provide the basis for improved simulations of land-surface-atmosphere feedback processes.

Improving ecosystem-scale modeling of evapotranspiration using ecological mechanisms that account for compensatory responses following disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, David J.; Ewers, Brent E.; Mackay, D. Scott; Peckham, Scott; Reed, David E.; Sekoni, Adewale

2017-09-01

Mountain pine beetle outbreaks in western North America have led to extensive forest mortality, justifiably generating interest in improving our understanding of how this type of ecological disturbance affects hydrological cycles. While observational studies and simulations have been used to elucidate the effects of mountain beetle mortality on hydrological fluxes, an ecologically mechanistic model of forest evapotranspiration (ET) evaluated against field data has yet to be developed. In this work, we use the Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES) to incorporate the ecohydrological impacts of mountain pine beetle disturbance on ET for a lodgepole pine-dominated forest equipped with an eddy covariance tower. An existing degree-day model was incorporated that predicted the life cycle of mountain pine beetles, along with an empirically derived submodel that allowed sap flux to decline as a function of temperature-dependent blue stain fungal growth. The eddy covariance footprint was divided into multiple cohorts for multiple growing seasons, including representations of recently attacked trees and the compensatory effects of regenerating understory, using two different spatial scaling methods. Our results showed that using a multiple cohort approach matched eddy covariance-measured ecosystem-scale ET fluxes well, and showed improved performance compared to model simulations assuming a binary framework of only areas of live and dead overstory. Cumulative growing season ecosystem-scale ET fluxes were 8 - 29% greater using the multicohort approach during years in which beetle attacks occurred, highlighting the importance of including compensatory ecological mechanism in ET models.

Laboratory Scale Experiments and Numerical Modeling of Cosolvent flushing of NAPL Mixtures in Saturated Porous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agaoglu, B.; Scheytt, T. J.; Copty, N. K.

2011-12-01

This study examines the mechanistic processes governing multiphase flow of a water-cosolvent-NAPL system in saturated porous media. Laboratory batch and column flushing experiments were conducted to determine the equilibrium properties of pure NAPL and synthetically prepared NAPL mixtures as well as NAPL recovery mechanisms for different water-ethanol contents. The effect of contact time was investigated by considering different steady and intermittent flow velocities. A modified version of multiphase flow simulator (UTCHEM) was used to compare the multiphase model simulations with the column experiment results. The effect of employing different grid geometries (1D, 2D, 3D), heterogeneity and different initial NAPL saturation configurations were also examined in the model. It is shown that the change in velocity affects the mass transfer rate between phases as well as the ultimate NAPL recovery percentage. The experiments with slow flow rate flushing of pure NAPL and the 3D UTCHEM simulations gave similar effluent concentrations and NAPL cumulative recoveries. The results were less consistent for fast non-equilibrium flow conditions. The dissolution process from the NAPL mixture into the water-ethanol flushing solutions was found to be more complex than dissolution expressions incorporated in the numerical model. The dissolution rate of individual organic compounds (namely Toluene and Benzene) from a mixture NAPL into the ethanol-water flushing solution is found not to correlate with their equilibrium solubility values.The implications of this controlled experimental and modeling study on field cosolvent remediation applications are discussed.

Calibration and validation of an activated sludge model for greenhouse gases no. 1 (ASMG1): prediction of temperature-dependent N₂O emission dynamics.

PubMed

Guo, Lisha; Vanrolleghem, Peter A

2014-02-01

An activated sludge model for greenhouse gases no. 1 was calibrated with data from a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) without control systems and validated with data from three similar plants equipped with control systems. Special about the calibration/validation approach adopted in this paper is that the data are obtained from simulations with a mathematical model that is widely accepted to describe effluent quality and operating costs of actual WWTPs, the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM2). The calibration also aimed at fitting the model to typical observed nitrous oxide (N₂O) emission data, i.e., a yearly average of 0.5% of the influent total nitrogen load emitted as N₂O-N. Model validation was performed by challenging the model in configurations with different control strategies. The kinetic term describing the dissolved oxygen effect on the denitrification by ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) was modified into a Haldane term. Both original and Haldane-modified models passed calibration and validation. Even though their yearly averaged values were similar, the two models presented different dynamic N₂O emissions under cold temperature conditions and control. Therefore, data collected in such situations can potentially permit model discrimination. Observed seasonal trends in N₂O emissions are simulated well with both original and Haldane-modified models. A mechanistic explanation based on the temperature-dependent interaction between heterotrophic and autotrophic N₂O pathways was provided. Finally, while adding the AOB denitrification pathway to a model with only heterotrophic N₂O production showed little impact on effluent quality and operating cost criteria, it clearly affected N2O emission productions.

Linear Response Path Following: A Molecular Dynamics Method To Simulate Global Conformational Changes of Protein upon Ligand Binding.

PubMed

Tamura, Koichi; Hayashi, Shigehiko

2015-07-14

Molecular functions of proteins are often fulfilled by global conformational changes that couple with local events such as the binding of ligand molecules. High molecular complexity of proteins has, however, been an obstacle to obtain an atomistic view of the global conformational transitions, imposing a limitation on the mechanistic understanding of the functional processes. In this study, we developed a new method of molecular dynamics (MD) simulation called the linear response path following (LRPF) to simulate a protein's global conformational changes upon ligand binding. The method introduces a biasing force based on a linear response theory, which determines a local reaction coordinate in the configuration space that represents linear coupling between local events of ligand binding and global conformational changes and thus provides one with fully atomistic models undergoing large conformational changes without knowledge of a target structure. The overall transition process involving nonlinear conformational changes is simulated through iterative cycles consisting of a biased MD simulation with an updated linear response force and a following unbiased MD simulation for relaxation. We applied the method to the simulation of global conformational changes of the yeast calmodulin N-terminal domain and successfully searched out the end conformation. The atomistically detailed trajectories revealed a sequence of molecular events that properly lead to the global conformational changes and identified key steps of local-global coupling that induce the conformational transitions. The LRPF method provides one with a powerful means to model conformational changes of proteins such as motors and transporters where local-global coupling plays a pivotal role in their functional processes.

Quantifying the drivers of ocean-atmosphere CO2 fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauderdale, Jonathan M.; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Williams, Richard G.; Follows, Michael J.

2016-07-01

A mechanistic framework for quantitatively mapping the regional drivers of air-sea CO2 fluxes at a global scale is developed. The framework evaluates the interplay between (1) surface heat and freshwater fluxes that influence the potential saturated carbon concentration, which depends on changes in sea surface temperature, salinity and alkalinity, (2) a residual, disequilibrium flux influenced by upwelling and entrainment of remineralized carbon- and nutrient-rich waters from the ocean interior, as well as rapid subduction of surface waters, (3) carbon uptake and export by biological activity as both soft tissue and carbonate, and (4) the effect on surface carbon concentrations due to freshwater precipitation or evaporation. In a steady state simulation of a coarse-resolution ocean circulation and biogeochemistry model, the sum of the individually determined components is close to the known total flux of the simulation. The leading order balance, identified in different dynamical regimes, is between the CO2 fluxes driven by surface heat fluxes and a combination of biologically driven carbon uptake and disequilibrium-driven carbon outgassing. The framework is still able to reconstruct simulated fluxes when evaluated using monthly averaged data and takes a form that can be applied consistently in models of different complexity and observations of the ocean. In this way, the framework may reveal differences in the balance of drivers acting across an ensemble of climate model simulations or be applied to an analysis and interpretation of the observed, real-world air-sea flux of CO2.

Crops in silico: A community wide multi-scale computational modeling framework of plant canopies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, V.; Christensen, A.; Borkiewic, K.; Yiwen, X.; Ellis, A.; Panneerselvam, B.; Kannan, K.; Shrivastava, S.; Cox, D.; Hart, J.; Marshall-Colon, A.; Long, S.

2016-12-01

Current crop models predict a looming gap between supply and demand for primary foodstuffs over the next 100 years. While significant yield increases were achieved in major food crops during the early years of the green revolution, the current rates of yield increases are insufficient to meet future projected food demand. Furthermore, with projected reduction in arable land, decrease in water availability, and increasing impacts of climate change on future food production, innovative technologies are required to sustainably improve crop yield. To meet these challenges, we are developing Crops in silico (Cis), a biologically informed, multi-scale, computational modeling framework that can facilitate whole plant simulations of crop systems. The Cis framework is capable of linking models of gene networks, protein synthesis, metabolic pathways, physiology, growth, and development in order to investigate crop response to different climate scenarios and resource constraints. This modeling framework will provide the mechanistic details to generate testable hypotheses toward accelerating directed breeding and engineering efforts to increase future food security. A primary objective for building such a framework is to create synergy among an inter-connected community of biologists and modelers to create a realistic virtual plant. This framework advantageously casts the detailed mechanistic understanding of individual plant processes across various scales in a common scalable framework that makes use of current advances in high performance and parallel computing. We are currently designing a user friendly interface that will make this tool equally accessible to biologists and computer scientists. Critically, this framework will provide the community with much needed tools for guiding future crop breeding and engineering, understanding the emergent implications of discoveries at the molecular level for whole plant behavior, and improved prediction of plant and ecosystem responses to the environment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jardine, Kolby

In conjunction with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility GoAmazon campaign, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science (TES)-funded Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon 2014/15) terrestrial ecosystem project (Geco) was designed to: • evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of leaf-level algorithms for biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emissions in Amazon forests near Manaus, Brazil, and • conduct mechanistic field studies to characterize biochemical and physiological processes governing leaf- and landscape-scale tropical forest BVOC emissions, and the influence of environmental drivers that are expected to change with a warming climate. Through a close interaction between modeling and observationalmore » activities, including the training of MS and PhD graduate students, post-doctoral students, and technicians at the National Institute for Amazon Research (INPA), the study aimed at improving the representation of BVOC-mediated biosphere-atmosphere interactions and feedbacks under a warming climate. BVOCs can form cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that influence precipitation dynamics and modify the quality of down welling radiation for photosynthesis. However, our ability to represent these coupled biosphere-atmosphere processes in Earth system models suffers from poor understanding of the functions, identities, quantities, and seasonal patterns of BVOC emissions from tropical forests as well as their biological and environmental controls. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), the current BVOC sub-model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), was evaluated to explore mechanistic controls over BVOC emissions. Based on that analysis, a combination of observations and experiments were studied in forests near Manaus, Brazil, to test existing parameterizations and algorithm structures in MEGAN. The model was actively modified as needed to improve tropical BVOC emission simulations on a regional scale.« less

Resource competition model predicts zonation and increasing nutrient use efficiency along a wetland salinity gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoolmaster, Donald; Stagg, Camille L.

2018-01-01

A trade-off between competitive ability and stress tolerance has been hypothesized and empirically supported to explain the zonation of species across stress gradients for a number of systems. Since stress often reduces plant productivity, one might expect a pattern of decreasing productivity across the zones of the stress gradient. However, this pattern is often not observed in coastal wetlands that show patterns of zonation along a salinity gradient. To address the potentially complex relationship between stress, zonation, and productivity in coastal wetlands, we developed a model of plant biomass as a function of resource competition and salinity stress. Analysis of the model confirms the conventional wisdom that a trade-off between competitive ability and stress tolerance is a necessary condition for zonation. It also suggests that a negative relationship between salinity and production can be overcome if (1) the supply of the limiting resource increases with greater salinity stress or (2) nutrient use efficiency increases with increasing salinity. We fit the equilibrium solution of the dynamic model to data from Louisiana coastal wetlands to test its ability to explain patterns of production across the landscape gradient and derive predictions that could be tested with independent data. We found support for a number of the model predictions, including patterns of decreasing competitive ability and increasing nutrient use efficiency across a gradient from freshwater to saline wetlands. In addition to providing a quantitative framework to support the mechanistic hypotheses of zonation, these results suggest that this simple model is a useful platform to further build upon, simulate and test mechanistic hypotheses of more complex patterns and phenomena in coastal wetlands.

The physicochemical process of bacterial attachment to abiotic surfaces: Challenges for mechanistic studies, predictability and the development of control strategies.

PubMed

Wang, Yi; Lee, Sui Mae; Dykes, Gary

2015-01-01

Bacterial attachment to abiotic surfaces can be explained as a physicochemical process. Mechanisms of the process have been widely studied but are not yet well understood due to their complexity. Physicochemical processes can be influenced by various interactions and factors in attachment systems, including, but not limited to, hydrophobic interactions, electrostatic interactions and substratum surface roughness. Mechanistic models and control strategies for bacterial attachment to abiotic surfaces have been established based on the current understanding of the attachment process and the interactions involved. Due to a lack of process control and standardization in the methodologies used to study the mechanisms of bacterial attachment, however, various challenges are apparent in the development of models and control strategies. In this review, the physicochemical mechanisms, interactions and factors affecting the process of bacterial attachment to abiotic surfaces are described. Mechanistic models established based on these parameters are discussed in terms of their limitations. Currently employed methods to study these parameters and bacterial attachment are critically compared. The roles of these parameters in the development of control strategies for bacterial attachment are reviewed, and the challenges that arise in developing mechanistic models and control strategies are assessed.

Simulating Food Web Dynamics along a Gradient: Quantifying Human Influence

PubMed Central

Jordán, Ferenc; Gjata, Nerta; Mei, Shu; Yule, Catherine M.

2012-01-01

Realistically parameterized and dynamically simulated food-webs are useful tool to explore the importance of the functional diversity of ecosystems, and in particular relations between the dynamics of species and the whole community. We present a stochastic dynamical food web simulation for the Kelian River (Borneo). The food web was constructed for six different locations, arrayed along a gradient of increasing human perturbation (mostly resulting from gold mining activities) along the river. Along the river, the relative importance of grazers, filterers and shredders decreases with increasing disturbance downstream, while predators become more dominant in governing eco-dynamics. Human activity led to increased turbidity and sedimentation which adversely impacts primary productivity. Since the main difference between the study sites was not the composition of the food webs (structure is quite similar) but the strengths of interactions and the abundance of the trophic groups, a dynamical simulation approach seemed to be useful to better explain human influence. In the pristine river (study site 1), when comparing a structural version of our model with the dynamical model we found that structurally central groups such as omnivores and carnivores were not the most important ones dynamically. Instead, primary consumers such as invertebrate grazers and shredders generated a greater dynamical response. Based on the dynamically most important groups, bottom-up control is replaced by the predominant top-down control regime as distance downstream and human disturbance increased. An important finding, potentially explaining the poor structure to dynamics relationship, is that indirect effects are at least as important as direct ones during the simulations. We suggest that our approach and this simulation framework could serve systems-based conservation efforts. Quantitative indicators on the relative importance of trophic groups and the mechanistic modeling of eco-dynamics could greatly contribute to understanding various aspects of functional diversity. PMID:22768346

Mechanistic Links Between PARP, NAD, and Brain Inflammation After TBI

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-01

1 AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-13-2-0091 TITLE: Mechanistic Links Between PARP, NAD , and Brain Inflammation After TBI PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR...COVERED 25 Sep 2014 - 24 Sep 2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Mechanistic Links Between PARP, NAD , and Brain Inflammation After TBI 5b. GRANT...efficacy of veliparib and NAD as agents for suppressing inflammation and improving outcomes after traumatic brain injury. The animal models include

Sensitivity of hypoxia predictions for the northern Gulf of Mexico to sediment oxygen consumption and model nesting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fennel, Katja; Hu, Jiatang; Laurent, Arnaud; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Hetland, Robert

2013-02-01

Every summer, a large area (15,000 km2 on average) over the Texas-Louisiana shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico turns hypoxic due to decay of organic matter that is primarily derived from nutrient inputs from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River System. Interannual variability in the size of the hypoxic zone is large. The 2008 Action Plan put forth by the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force, an alliance of multiple state and federal agencies and tribes, calls for a reduction of the size of the hypoxic zone through nutrient management in the watershed. Comprehensive models help build mechanistic understanding of the processes underlying hypoxia formation and variability and are thus indispensable tools for devising efficient nutrient reduction strategies and for building reasonable expectations as to what responses can be expected for a given nutrient reduction. Here we present such a model, evaluate its hypoxia simulations against monitoring observations, and assess the sensitivity of the hypoxia simulations to model resolution, variations in sediment oxygen consumption, and choice of physical horizontal boundary conditions. We find that hypoxia simulations on the shelf are very sensitive to the parameterization of sediment oxygen consumption, a result of the fact that hypoxic conditions are restricted to a relatively thin layer above the bottom over most of the shelf. We show that the strength of vertical stratification is an important predictor of dissolved oxygen concentration in bottom waters and that modification of physical horizontal boundary conditions can have a large effect on hypoxia simulations because it can affect stratification strength.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ai Yuejie; Zhang Feng; Theoretical Chemistry, School of Biotechnology, Royal Institute of Technology, S-10691 Stockholm

2-aminopyridine dimer has frequently been used as a model system for studying photochemistry of DNA base pairs. We examine here the relevance of 2-aminopyridine dimer for a Watson-Crick adenine-thymine base pair by studying UV-light induced photodynamics along two main hydrogen bridges after the excitation to the localized {sup 1}{pi}{pi}* excited-state. The respective two-dimensional potential-energy surfaces have been determined by time-dependent density functional theory with Coulomb-attenuated hybrid exchange-correlation functional (CAM-B3LYP). Different mechanistic aspects of the deactivation pathway have been analyzed and compared in detail for both systems, while the related reaction rates have also be obtained from Monte Carlo kinetic simulations.more » The limitations of the 2-aminopyridine dimer as a model system for the adenine-thymine base pair are discussed.« less

The influence of grazing on surface climatological variables of tallgrass prairie

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seastedt, T. R.; Dyer, M. I.; Turner, Clarence L.

1992-01-01

Mass and energy exchange between most grassland canopies and the atmosphere are mediated by grazing activities. Ambient temperatures can be increased or decreased by grazers. Data have been assembled from simulated grazing experiments on Konza Prairie Research Natural Area and observations on adjacent pastures grazed by cattle show significant changes in primary production, nutrient content, and bidirectional reflectance characteristics as a function of grazing intensity. The purpose of this research was to provide algorithms that would allow incorporation of grazing effects into models of energy budgets using remote sensing procedures. The approach involved: (1) linking empirical measurements of plant biomass and grazing intensities to remotely sensed canopy reflectance, and (2) using a higher resolution, mechanistic grazing model to derive plant ecophysiological parameters that influence reflectance and other surface climatological variables.

Chemical reaction mechanisms in solution from brute force computational Arrhenius plots.

PubMed

Kazemi, Masoud; Åqvist, Johan

2015-06-01

Decomposition of activation free energies of chemical reactions, into enthalpic and entropic components, can provide invaluable signatures of mechanistic pathways both in solution and in enzymes. Owing to the large number of degrees of freedom involved in such condensed-phase reactions, the extensive configurational sampling needed for reliable entropy estimates is still beyond the scope of quantum chemical calculations. Here we show, for the hydrolytic deamination of cytidine and dihydrocytidine in water, how direct computer simulations of the temperature dependence of free energy profiles can be used to extract very accurate thermodynamic activation parameters. The simulations are based on empirical valence bond models, and we demonstrate that the energetics obtained is insensitive to whether these are calibrated by quantum mechanical calculations or experimental data. The thermodynamic activation parameters are in remarkable agreement with experiment results and allow discrimination among alternative mechanisms, as well as rationalization of their different activation enthalpies and entropies.

Chemical reaction mechanisms in solution from brute force computational Arrhenius plots

PubMed Central

Kazemi, Masoud; Åqvist, Johan

2015-01-01

Decomposition of activation free energies of chemical reactions, into enthalpic and entropic components, can provide invaluable signatures of mechanistic pathways both in solution and in enzymes. Owing to the large number of degrees of freedom involved in such condensed-phase reactions, the extensive configurational sampling needed for reliable entropy estimates is still beyond the scope of quantum chemical calculations. Here we show, for the hydrolytic deamination of cytidine and dihydrocytidine in water, how direct computer simulations of the temperature dependence of free energy profiles can be used to extract very accurate thermodynamic activation parameters. The simulations are based on empirical valence bond models, and we demonstrate that the energetics obtained is insensitive to whether these are calibrated by quantum mechanical calculations or experimental data. The thermodynamic activation parameters are in remarkable agreement with experiment results and allow discrimination among alternative mechanisms, as well as rationalization of their different activation enthalpies and entropies. PMID:26028237

Permeating disciplines: Overcoming barriers between molecular simulations and classical structure-function approaches in biological ion transport.

PubMed

Howard, Rebecca J; Carnevale, Vincenzo; Delemotte, Lucie; Hellmich, Ute A; Rothberg, Brad S

2018-04-01

Ion translocation across biological barriers is a fundamental requirement for life. In many cases, controlling this process-for example with neuroactive drugs-demands an understanding of rapid and reversible structural changes in membrane-embedded proteins, including ion channels and transporters. Classical approaches to electrophysiology and structural biology have provided valuable insights into several such proteins over macroscopic, often discontinuous scales of space and time. Integrating these observations into meaningful mechanistic models now relies increasingly on computational methods, particularly molecular dynamics simulations, while surfacing important challenges in data management and conceptual alignment. Here, we seek to provide contemporary context, concrete examples, and a look to the future for bridging disciplinary gaps in biological ion transport. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Beyond the Structure-Function Horizon of Membrane Proteins edited by Ute Hellmich, Rupak Doshi and Benjamin McIlwain. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mechanistic equivalent circuit modelling of a commercial polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giner-Sanz, J. J.; Ortega, E. M.; Pérez-Herranz, V.

2018-03-01

Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) has been widely used in the fuel cell field since it allows deconvolving the different physic-chemical processes that affect the fuel cell performance. Typically, EIS spectra are modelled using electric equivalent circuits. In this work, EIS spectra of an individual cell of a commercial PEM fuel cell stack were obtained experimentally. The goal was to obtain a mechanistic electric equivalent circuit in order to model the experimental EIS spectra. A mechanistic electric equivalent circuit is a semiempirical modelling technique which is based on obtaining an equivalent circuit that does not only correctly fit the experimental spectra, but which elements have a mechanistic physical meaning. In order to obtain the aforementioned electric equivalent circuit, 12 different models with defined physical meanings were proposed. These equivalent circuits were fitted to the obtained EIS spectra. A 2 step selection process was performed. In the first step, a group of 4 circuits were preselected out of the initial list of 12, based on general fitting indicators as the determination coefficient and the fitted parameter uncertainty. In the second step, one of the 4 preselected circuits was selected on account of the consistency of the fitted parameter values with the physical meaning of each parameter.

An individual-based modeling approach to simulate the effects of cellular nutrient competition on Escherichia coli K-12 MG1655 colony behavior and interactions in aerobic structured food systems.

PubMed

Tack, Ignace L M M; Logist, Filip; Noriega Fernández, Estefanía; Van Impe, Jan F M

2015-02-01

Traditional kinetic models in predictive microbiology reliably predict macroscopic dynamics of planktonically-growing cell cultures in homogeneous liquid food systems. However, most food products have a semi-solid structure, where microorganisms grow locally in colonies. Individual colony cells exhibit strongly different and non-normally distributed behavior due to local nutrient competition. As a result, traditional models considering average population behavior in a homogeneous system do not describe colony dynamics in full detail. To incorporate local resource competition and individual cell differences, an individual-based modeling approach has been applied to Escherichia coli K-12 MG1655 colonies, considering the microbial cell as modeling unit. The first contribution of this individual-based model is to describe single colony growth under nutrient-deprived conditions. More specifically, the linear and stationary phase in the evolution of the colony radius, the evolution from a disk-like to branching morphology, and the emergence of a starvation zone in the colony center are simulated and compared to available experimental data. These phenomena occur earlier at more severe nutrient depletion conditions, i.e., at lower nutrient diffusivity and initial nutrient concentration in the medium. Furthermore, intercolony interactions have been simulated. Higher inoculum densities lead to stronger intercolony interactions, such as colony merging and smaller colony sizes, due to nutrient competition. This individual-based model contributes to the elucidation of characteristic experimentally observed colony behavior from mechanistic information about cellular physiology and interactions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

DOE PAGES

Tessum, Christopher W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.; ...

2017-04-19

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. We present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical informationmore » from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons we run, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of -17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license.« less

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

PubMed Central

Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

2017-01-01

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. Here, we present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical information from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons run here, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of −17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license. PMID:28423049

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tessum, Christopher W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. We present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical informationmore » from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons we run, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of -17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license.« less

Connecting Biochemical Photosynthesis Models with Crop Models to Support Crop Improvement

PubMed Central

Wu, Alex; Song, Youhong; van Oosterom, Erik J.; Hammer, Graeme L.

2016-01-01

The next advance in field crop productivity will likely need to come from improving crop use efficiency of resources (e.g., light, water, and nitrogen), aspects of which are closely linked with overall crop photosynthetic efficiency. Progress in genetic manipulation of photosynthesis is confounded by uncertainties of consequences at crop level because of difficulties connecting across scales. Crop growth and development simulation models that integrate across biological levels of organization and use a gene-to-phenotype modeling approach may present a way forward. There has been a long history of development of crop models capable of simulating dynamics of crop physiological attributes. Many crop models incorporate canopy photosynthesis (source) as a key driver for crop growth, while others derive crop growth from the balance between source- and sink-limitations. Modeling leaf photosynthesis has progressed from empirical modeling via light response curves to a more mechanistic basis, having clearer links to the underlying biochemical processes of photosynthesis. Cross-scale modeling that connects models at the biochemical and crop levels and utilizes developments in upscaling leaf-level models to canopy models has the potential to bridge the gap between photosynthetic manipulation at the biochemical level and its consequences on crop productivity. Here we review approaches to this emerging cross-scale modeling framework and reinforce the need for connections across levels of modeling. Further, we propose strategies for connecting biochemical models of photosynthesis into the cross-scale modeling framework to support crop improvement through photosynthetic manipulation. PMID:27790232

Connecting Biochemical Photosynthesis Models with Crop Models to Support Crop Improvement.

PubMed

Wu, Alex; Song, Youhong; van Oosterom, Erik J; Hammer, Graeme L

2016-01-01

The next advance in field crop productivity will likely need to come from improving crop use efficiency of resources (e.g., light, water, and nitrogen), aspects of which are closely linked with overall crop photosynthetic efficiency. Progress in genetic manipulation of photosynthesis is confounded by uncertainties of consequences at crop level because of difficulties connecting across scales. Crop growth and development simulation models that integrate across biological levels of organization and use a gene-to-phenotype modeling approach may present a way forward. There has been a long history of development of crop models capable of simulating dynamics of crop physiological attributes. Many crop models incorporate canopy photosynthesis (source) as a key driver for crop growth, while others derive crop growth from the balance between source- and sink-limitations. Modeling leaf photosynthesis has progressed from empirical modeling via light response curves to a more mechanistic basis, having clearer links to the underlying biochemical processes of photosynthesis. Cross-scale modeling that connects models at the biochemical and crop levels and utilizes developments in upscaling leaf-level models to canopy models has the potential to bridge the gap between photosynthetic manipulation at the biochemical level and its consequences on crop productivity. Here we review approaches to this emerging cross-scale modeling framework and reinforce the need for connections across levels of modeling. Further, we propose strategies for connecting biochemical models of photosynthesis into the cross-scale modeling framework to support crop improvement through photosynthetic manipulation.

CN-Wheat, a functional–structural model of carbon and nitrogen metabolism in wheat culms after anthesis. I. Model description

PubMed Central

Barillot, Romain; Chambon, Camille; Andrieu, Bruno

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Improving crops requires better linking of traits and metabolic processes to whole plant performance. In this paper, we present CN-Wheat, a comprehensive and mechanistic model of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) metabolism within wheat culms after anthesis. Methods The culm is described by modules that represent the roots, photosynthetic organs and grains. Each of them includes structural, storage and mobile materials. Fluxes of C and N among modules occur through a common pool and through transpiration flow. Metabolite variations are represented by differential equations that depend on the physiological processes occurring in each module. A challenging aspect of CN-Wheat lies in the regulation of these processes by metabolite concentrations and the environment perceived by organs. Key Results CN-Wheat simulates the distribution of C and N into wheat culms in relation to photosynthesis, N uptake, metabolite turnover, root exudation and tissue death. Regulation of physiological activities by local concentrations of metabolites appears to be a valuable feature for understanding how the behaviour of the whole plant can emerge from local rules. Conclusions The originality of CN-Wheat is that it proposes an integrated view of plant functioning based on a mechanistic approach. The formalization of each process can be further refined in the future as knowledge progresses. This approach is expected to strengthen our capacity to understand plant responses to their environment and investigate plant traits adapted to changes in agronomical practices or environmental conditions. A companion paper will evaluate the model. PMID:27497242

Noise analysis of genome-scale protein synthesis using a discrete computational model of translation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Racle, Julien; Hatzimanikatis, Vassily, E-mail: vassily.hatzimanikatis@epfl.ch; Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics

2015-07-28

Noise in genetic networks has been the subject of extensive experimental and computational studies. However, very few of these studies have considered noise properties using mechanistic models that account for the discrete movement of ribosomes and RNA polymerases along their corresponding templates (messenger RNA (mRNA) and DNA). The large size of these systems, which scales with the number of genes, mRNA copies, codons per mRNA, and ribosomes, is responsible for some of the challenges. Additionally, one should be able to describe the dynamics of ribosome exchange between the free ribosome pool and those bound to mRNAs, as well as howmore » mRNA species compete for ribosomes. We developed an efficient algorithm for stochastic simulations that addresses these issues and used it to study the contribution and trade-offs of noise to translation properties (rates, time delays, and rate-limiting steps). The algorithm scales linearly with the number of mRNA copies, which allowed us to study the importance of genome-scale competition between mRNAs for the same ribosomes. We determined that noise is minimized under conditions maximizing the specific synthesis rate. Moreover, sensitivity analysis of the stochastic system revealed the importance of the elongation rate in the resultant noise, whereas the translation initiation rate constant was more closely related to the average protein synthesis rate. We observed significant differences between our results and the noise properties of the most commonly used translation models. Overall, our studies demonstrate that the use of full mechanistic models is essential for the study of noise in translation and transcription.« less

Mechanistic Insights into Radical-Mediated Oxidation of Tryptophan from ab Initio Quantum Chemistry Calculations and QM/MM Molecular Dynamics Simulations.

PubMed

Wood, Geoffrey P F; Sreedhara, Alavattam; Moore, Jamie M; Wang, John; Trout, Bernhardt L

2016-05-12

An assessment of the mechanisms of (•)OH and (•)OOH radical-mediated oxidation of tryptophan was performed using density functional theory calculations and ab initio plane-wave Quantum Mechanics/Molecular Mechanics (QM/MM) molecular dynamics simulations. For the (•)OH reactions, addition to the pyrrole ring at position 2 is the most favored site with a barrierless reaction in the gas phase. The subsequent degradation of this adduct through a H atom transfer to water was intermittently observed in aqueous-phase molecular dynamics simulations. For the (•)OOH reactions, addition to the pyrrole ring at position 2 is the most favored pathway, in contrast to the situation in the model system ethylene, where concerted addition to the double bond is preferred. From the (•)OOH position 2 adduct QM/MM simulations show that formation of oxy-3-indolanaline occurs readily in an aqueous environment. The observed transformation starts from an initial rupture of the O-O bond followed by a H atom transfer with the accompanying loss of an (•)OH radical to solution. Finally, classical molecular dynamics simulations were performed to equate observed differential oxidation rates of various tryptophan residues in monoclonal antibody fragments. It was found that simple parameters derived from simulation correlate well with the experimental data.

An interface finite element model can be used to predict healing outcome of bone fractures.

PubMed

Alierta, J A; Pérez, M A; García-Aznar, J M

2014-01-01

After fractures, bone can experience different potential outcomes: successful bone consolidation, non-union and bone failure. Although, there are a lot of factors that influence fracture healing, experimental studies have shown that the interfragmentary movement (IFM) is one of the main regulators for the course of bone healing. In this sense, computational models may help to improve the development of mechanical-based treatments for bone fracture healing. Hence, based on this fact, we propose a combined repair-failure mechanistic computational model to describe bone fracture healing. Despite being a simple model, it is able to correctly estimate the time course evolution of the IFM compared to in vivo measurements under different mechanical conditions. Therefore, this mathematical approach is especially suitable for modeling the healing response of bone to fractures treated with different mechanical fixators, simulating realistic clinical conditions. This model will be a useful tool to identify factors and define targets for patient specific therapeutics interventions. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.