The underlying processes of a soil mite metacommunity on a small scale

PubMed Central

Guo, Chuanwei; Lin, Lin; Wu, Donghui; Zhang, Limin

2017-01-01

Metacommunity theory provides an understanding of how ecological processes regulate local community assemblies. However, few field studies have evaluated the underlying mechanisms of a metacommunity on a small scale through revealing the relative roles of spatial and environmental filtering in structuring local community composition. Based on a spatially explicit sampling design in 2012 and 2013, this study aims to evaluate the underlying processes of a soil mite metacommunity on a small spatial scale (50 m) in a temperate deciduous forest located at the Maoershan Ecosystem Research Station, Northeast China. Moran’s eigenvector maps (MEMs) were used to model independent spatial variables. The relative importance of spatial (including trend variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, and broad- and fine-scale spatial variables) and environmental factors in driving the soil mite metacommunity was determined by variation partitioning. Mantel and partial Mantel tests and a redundancy analysis (RDA) were also used to identify the relative contributions of spatial and environmental variables. The results of variation partitioning suggested that the relatively large and significant variance was a result of spatial variables (including broad- and fine-scale spatial variables and trend), indicating the importance of dispersal limitation and autocorrelation processes. The significant contribution of environmental variables was detected in 2012 based on a partial Mantel test, and soil moisture and soil organic matter were especially important for the soil mite metacommunity composition in both years. The study suggested that the soil mite metacommunity was primarily regulated by dispersal limitation due to broad-scale and neutral biotic processes at a fine-scale and that environmental filtering might be of subordinate importance. In conclusion, a combination of metacommunity perspectives between neutral and species sorting theories was suggested to be important in the

The underlying processes of a soil mite metacommunity on a small scale.

PubMed

Dong, Chengxu; Gao, Meixiang; Guo, Chuanwei; Lin, Lin; Wu, Donghui; Zhang, Limin

2017-01-01

Metacommunity theory provides an understanding of how ecological processes regulate local community assemblies. However, few field studies have evaluated the underlying mechanisms of a metacommunity on a small scale through revealing the relative roles of spatial and environmental filtering in structuring local community composition. Based on a spatially explicit sampling design in 2012 and 2013, this study aims to evaluate the underlying processes of a soil mite metacommunity on a small spatial scale (50 m) in a temperate deciduous forest located at the Maoershan Ecosystem Research Station, Northeast China. Moran's eigenvector maps (MEMs) were used to model independent spatial variables. The relative importance of spatial (including trend variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, and broad- and fine-scale spatial variables) and environmental factors in driving the soil mite metacommunity was determined by variation partitioning. Mantel and partial Mantel tests and a redundancy analysis (RDA) were also used to identify the relative contributions of spatial and environmental variables. The results of variation partitioning suggested that the relatively large and significant variance was a result of spatial variables (including broad- and fine-scale spatial variables and trend), indicating the importance of dispersal limitation and autocorrelation processes. The significant contribution of environmental variables was detected in 2012 based on a partial Mantel test, and soil moisture and soil organic matter were especially important for the soil mite metacommunity composition in both years. The study suggested that the soil mite metacommunity was primarily regulated by dispersal limitation due to broad-scale and neutral biotic processes at a fine-scale and that environmental filtering might be of subordinate importance. In conclusion, a combination of metacommunity perspectives between neutral and species sorting theories was suggested to be important in the observed

Hierarchical drivers of reef-fish metacommunity structure.

PubMed

MacNeil, M Aaron; Graham, Nicholas A J; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Kulbicki, Michel; Galzin, René; Harmelin-Vivien, Mireille; Rushton, Steven P

2009-01-01

Coral reefs are highly complex ecological systems, where multiple processes interact across scales in space and time to create assemblages of exceptionally high biodiversity. Despite the increasing frequency of hierarchically structured sampling programs used in coral-reef science, little progress has been made in quantifying the relative importance of processes operating across multiple scales. The vast majority of reef studies are conducted, or at least analyzed, at a single spatial scale, ignoring the implicitly hierarchical structure of the overall system in favor of small-scale experiments or large-scale observations. Here we demonstrate how alpha (mean local number of species), beta diversity (degree of species dissimilarity among local sites), and gamma diversity (overall species richness) vary with spatial scale, and using a hierarchical, information-theoretic approach, we evaluate the relative importance of site-, reef-, and atoll-level processes driving the fish metacommunity structure among 10 atolls in French Polynesia. Process-based models, representing well-established hypotheses about drivers of reef-fish community structure, were assembled into a candidate set of 12 hierarchical linear models. Variation in fish abundance, biomass, and species richness were unevenly distributed among transect, reef, and atoll levels, establishing the relative contribution of variation at these spatial scales to the structure of the metacommunity. Reef-fish biomass, species richness, and the abundance of most functional-groups corresponded primarily with transect-level habitat diversity and atoll-lagoon size, whereas detritivore and grazer abundances were largely correlated with potential covariates of larval dispersal. Our findings show that (1) within-transect and among-atoll factors primarily drive the relationship between alpha and gamma diversity in this reef-fish metacommunity; (2) habitat is the primary correlate with reef-fish metacommunity structure at

Metacommunity versus Biogeography: A Case Study of Two Groups of Neotropical Vegetation-Dwelling Arthropods

PubMed Central

Gonçalves-Souza, Thiago; Romero, Gustavo Q.; Cottenie, Karl

2014-01-01

Biogeography and metacommunity ecology provide two different perspectives on species diversity. Both are spatial in nature but their spatial scales do not necessarily match. With recent boom of metacommunity studies, we see an increasing need for clear discrimination of spatial scales relevant for both perspectives. This discrimination is a necessary prerequisite for improved understanding of ecological phenomena across scales. Here we provide a case study to illustrate some spatial scale-dependent concepts in recent metacommunity studies and identify potential pitfalls. We presented here the diversity patterns of Neotropical lepidopterans and spiders viewed both from metacommunity and biogeographical perspectives. Specifically, we investigated how the relative importance of niche- and dispersal-based processes for community assembly change at two spatial scales: metacommunity scale, i.e. within a locality, and biogeographical scale, i.e. among localities widely scattered along a macroclimatic gradient. As expected, niche-based processes dominated the community assembly at metacommunity scale, while dispersal-based processes played a major role at biogeographical scale for both taxonomical groups. However, we also observed small but significant spatial effects at metacommunity scale and environmental effects at biogeographical scale. We also observed differences in diversity patterns between the two taxonomical groups corresponding to differences in their dispersal modes. Our results thus support the idea of continuity of processes interactively shaping diversity patterns across scales and emphasize the necessity of integration of metacommunity and biogeographical perspectives. PMID:25549332

The Effects of Dispersal and Predator Density on Prey Survival in an Insect-Red Clover Metacommunity

PubMed Central

Radl, James N; Crist, Thomas O

2018-01-01

Abstract Trophic interactions are often studied within habitat patches, but among-patch dispersal of individuals may influence local patch dynamics. Metacommunity concepts incorporate the effects of dispersal on local and community dynamics. There are few experimental tests of metacommunity theory using insects compared to those conducted in microbial microcosms. Using connected experimental mesocosms, we varied the density of the leafhopper Agallia constricta Van Duzee (Homoptera: Cicadellidae) and a generalist insect predator, the damsel bug (Nabis spp., Heteroptera: Nabidae), to determine the effects of conspecific and predator density and varying the time available to dispersal among mesocosms on predation rates, dispersal rates, and leafhopper survival. Conspecific and damsel bug density did not affect dispersal rates in leafhoppers, but this may be due to leafhoppers’ aversion to leaving the host plants or the connecting tubes between mesocosms hindering leafhopper movement. Leafhopper dispersal was higher in high-dispersal treatments. Survival rates of A. constricta were also lowest in treatments where dispersal was not limited. This is one of the first experimental studies to vary predator density and the time available to dispersal. Our results indicate that dispersal is the key to understanding short-term processes such as prey survival in predator-prey metacommunities. Further work is needed to determine how dispersal rates influence persistence of communities in multigenerational studies. PMID:29301047

Invertebrate Metacommunity Structure and Dynamics in an Andean Glacial Stream Network Facing Climate Change

PubMed Central

Cauvy-Fraunié, Sophie; Espinosa, Rodrigo; Andino, Patricio; Jacobsen, Dean; Dangles, Olivier

2015-01-01

Under the ongoing climate change, understanding the mechanisms structuring the spatial distribution of aquatic species in glacial stream networks is of critical importance to predict the response of aquatic biodiversity in the face of glacier melting. In this study, we propose to use metacommunity theory as a conceptual framework to better understand how river network structure influences the spatial organization of aquatic communities in glacierized catchments. At 51 stream sites in an Andean glacierized catchment (Ecuador), we sampled benthic macroinvertebrates, measured physico-chemical and food resource conditions, and calculated geographical, altitudinal and glaciality distances among all sites. Using partial redundancy analysis, we partitioned community variation to evaluate the relative strength of environmental conditions (e.g., glaciality, food resource) vs. spatial processes (e.g., overland, watercourse, and downstream directional dispersal) in organizing the aquatic metacommunity. Results revealed that both environmental and spatial variables significantly explained community variation among sites. Among all environmental variables, the glacial influence component best explained community variation. Overland spatial variables based on geographical and altitudinal distances significantly affected community variation. Watercourse spatial variables based on glaciality distances had a unique significant effect on community variation. Within alpine catchment, glacial meltwater affects macroinvertebrate metacommunity structure in many ways. Indeed, the harsh environmental conditions characterizing glacial influence not only constitute the primary environmental filter but also, limit water-borne macroinvertebrate dispersal. Therefore, glacier runoff acts as an aquatic dispersal barrier, isolating species in headwater streams, and preventing non-adapted species to colonize throughout the entire stream network. Under a scenario of glacier runoff decrease, we

Effects of diffusion on total biomass in simple metacommunities.

PubMed

Ruiz-Herrera, Alfonso; Torres, Pedro J

2018-06-14

This paper analyzes the effects of diffusion on the overall population size of the different species of a metacommunity. Depending on precise thresholds, we determine whether increasing the dispersal rate of a species has a positive or negative effect on population abundance. These thresholds depend on the interaction type of the species and the quality of the patches. The motivation for researching this issue is that spatial structure is a source of new biological insights with management interest. For instance, in a metacommunity of two competitors, the movement of a competitor could lead to a decrease of the overall population size of both species. On the other hand, we discuss when some classic results of metapopulation theory are preserved in metacommunities. Our results complement some recent experimental work by Zhang and collaborators. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mammal diversity and metacommunity dynamics in urban green spaces: implications for urban wildlife conservation.

PubMed

Gallo, Travis; Fidino, Mason; Lehrer, Elizabeth W; Magle, Seth B

2017-12-01

As urban growth expands and natural environments fragment, it is essential to understand the ecological roles fulfilled by urban green spaces. To evaluate how urban green spaces function as wildlife habitat, we estimated mammal diversity and metacommunity dynamics in city parks, cemeteries, golf courses, and natural areas throughout the greater Chicago, Illinois, USA region. We found similar α-diversity (with the exception of city parks), but remarkably dissimilar communities in different urban green spaces. Additionally, the type of urban green space greatly influenced species colonization and persistence rates. For example, coyotes (Canis latrans) had the highest, but white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) the lowest probability of persistence in golf courses compared to other green space types. Further, most species had a difficult time colonizing city parks even when sites were seemingly available. Our results indicate that urban green spaces contribute different, but collectively important, habitats for maintaining and conserving biodiversity in cities. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Inferring species roles in metacommunity structure from species co-occurrence networks

PubMed Central

Borthagaray, Ana I.; Arim, Matías; Marquet, Pablo A.

2014-01-01

A long-standing question in community ecology is what determines the identity of species that coexist across local communities or metacommunity assembly. To shed light upon this question, we used a network approach to analyse the drivers of species co-occurrence patterns. In particular, we focus on the potential roles of body size and trophic status as determinants of metacommunity cohesion because of their link to resource use and dispersal ability. Small-sized individuals at low-trophic levels, and with limited dispersal potential, are expected to form highly linked subgroups, whereas large-size individuals at higher trophic positions, and with good dispersal potential, will foster the spatial coupling of subgroups and the cohesion of the whole metacommunity. By using modularity analysis, we identified six modules of species with similar responses to ecological conditions and high co-occurrence across local communities. Most species either co-occur with species from a single module or are connectors of the whole network. Among the latter are carnivorous species of intermediate body size, which by virtue of their high incidence provide connectivity to otherwise isolated communities playing the role of spatial couplers. Our study also demonstrates that the incorporation of network tools to the analysis of metacommunity ecology can help unveil the mechanisms underlying patterns and processes in metacommunity assembly. PMID:25143039

The Effects of Dispersal and Predator Density on Prey Survival in an Insect-Red Clover Metacommunity.

PubMed

Stasek, David J; Radl, James N; Crist, Thomas O

2018-01-01

Trophic interactions are often studied within habitat patches, but among-patch dispersal of individuals may influence local patch dynamics. Metacommunity concepts incorporate the effects of dispersal on local and community dynamics. There are few experimental tests of metacommunity theory using insects compared to those conducted in microbial microcosms. Using connected experimental mesocosms, we varied the density of the leafhopper Agallia constricta Van Duzee (Homoptera: Cicadellidae) and a generalist insect predator, the damsel bug (Nabis spp., Heteroptera: Nabidae), to determine the effects of conspecific and predator density and varying the time available to dispersal among mesocosms on predation rates, dispersal rates, and leafhopper survival. Conspecific and damsel bug density did not affect dispersal rates in leafhoppers, but this may be due to leafhoppers' aversion to leaving the host plants or the connecting tubes between mesocosms hindering leafhopper movement. Leafhopper dispersal was higher in high-dispersal treatments. Survival rates of A. constricta were also lowest in treatments where dispersal was not limited. This is one of the first experimental studies to vary predator density and the time available to dispersal. Our results indicate that dispersal is the key to understanding short-term processes such as prey survival in predator-prey metacommunities. Further work is needed to determine how dispersal rates influence persistence of communities in multigenerational studies. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.

A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost

2012-02-01

We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The 'evolving metacommunity' framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats.

Dispersal and life history strategies in epiphyte metacommunities: alternative solutions to survival in patchy, dynamic landscapes.

PubMed

Löbel, Swantje; Rydin, Håkan

2009-09-01

Host trees for obligate epiphytes are dynamic patches that emerge, grow and fall, and metacommunity diversity critically depends on efficient dispersal. Even though species that disperse by large asexual diaspores are strongly dispersal limited, asexual dispersal is common. The stronger dispersal limitation of asexually reproducing species compared to species reproducing sexually via small spores may be compensated by higher growth rates, lower sensitivity to habitat conditions, higher competitive ability or younger reproductive age. We compared growth and reproduction of different groups of epiphytic bryophytes with contrasting dispersal (asexual vs. sexual) and life history strategies (colonists, short- and long-lived shuttle species, perennial stayers) in an old-growth forest stand in the boreo-nemoral region in eastern Sweden. No differences were seen in relative growth rates between asexual and sexual species. Long-lived shuttles had lower growth rates than colonists and perennial stayers. Most groups grew best at intermediate bark pH. Interactions with other epiphytes had a small, often positive effect on growth. Neither differences in sensitivity of growth to habitat conditions nor differences in competitive abilities among species groups were found. Habitat conditions, however, influenced the production of sporophytes, but not of asexual diaspores. Presence of sporophytes negatively affected growth, whereas presence of asexual diaspores did not. Sexual species had to reach a certain colony size before starting to reproduce, whereas no such threshold existed for asexual reproduction. The results indicate that the epiphyte metacommunity is structured by two main trade-offs: dispersal distance vs. reproductive age, and dispersal distance vs. sensitivity to habitat quality. There seems to be a trade-off between growth and sexual reproduction, but not asexual. Trade-offs in species traits may be shaped by conflicting selection pressures imposed by habitat

Flow directionality, mountain barriers and functional traits determine diatom metacommunity structuring of high mountain streams.

PubMed

Dong, Xiaoyu; Li, Bin; He, Fengzhi; Gu, Yuan; Sun, Meiqin; Zhang, Haomiao; Tan, Lu; Xiao, Wen; Liu, Shuoran; Cai, Qinghua

2016-04-19

Stream metacommunities are structured by a combination of local (environmental filtering) and regional (dispersal) processes. The unique characters of high mountain streams could potentially determine metacommunity structuring, which is currently poorly understood. Aiming at understanding how these characters influenced metacommunity structuring, we explored the relative importance of local environmental conditions and various dispersal processes, including through geographical (overland), topographical (across mountain barriers) and network (along flow direction) pathways in shaping benthic diatom communities. From a trait perspective, diatoms were categorized into high-profile, low-profile and motile guild to examine the roles of functional traits. Our results indicated that both environmental filtering and dispersal processes influenced metacommunity structuring, with dispersal contributing more than environmental processes. Among the three pathways, stream corridors were primary pathway. Deconstructive analysis suggested different responses to environmental and spatial factors for each of three ecological guilds. However, regardless of traits, dispersal among streams was limited by mountain barriers, while dispersal along stream was promoted by rushing flow in high mountain stream. Our results highlighted that directional processes had prevailing effects on metacommunity structuring in high mountain streams. Flow directionality, mountain barriers and ecological guilds contributed to a better understanding of the roles that mountains played in structuring metacommunity.

Asynchrony among local communities stabilises ecosystem function of metacommunities.

PubMed

Wilcox, Kevin R; Tredennick, Andrew T; Koerner, Sally E; Grman, Emily; Hallett, Lauren M; Avolio, Meghan L; La Pierre, Kimberly J; Houseman, Gregory R; Isbell, Forest; Johnson, David Samuel; Alatalo, Juha M; Baldwin, Andrew H; Bork, Edward W; Boughton, Elizabeth H; Bowman, William D; Britton, Andrea J; Cahill, James F; Collins, Scott L; Du, Guozhen; Eskelinen, Anu; Gough, Laura; Jentsch, Anke; Kern, Christel; Klanderud, Kari; Knapp, Alan K; Kreyling, Juergen; Luo, Yiqi; McLaren, Jennie R; Megonigal, Patrick; Onipchenko, Vladimir; Prevéy, Janet; Price, Jodi N; Robinson, Clare H; Sala, Osvaldo E; Smith, Melinda D; Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Souza, Lara; Tilman, David; White, Shannon R; Xu, Zhuwen; Yahdjian, Laura; Yu, Qiang; Zhang, Pengfei; Zhang, Yunhai

2017-12-01

Temporal stability of ecosystem functioning increases the predictability and reliability of ecosystem services, and understanding the drivers of stability across spatial scales is important for land management and policy decisions. We used species-level abundance data from 62 plant communities across five continents to assess mechanisms of temporal stability across spatial scales. We assessed how asynchrony (i.e. different units responding dissimilarly through time) of species and local communities stabilised metacommunity ecosystem function. Asynchrony of species increased stability of local communities, and asynchrony among local communities enhanced metacommunity stability by a wide range of magnitudes (1-315%); this range was positively correlated with the size of the metacommunity. Additionally, asynchronous responses among local communities were linked with species' populations fluctuating asynchronously across space, perhaps stemming from physical and/or competitive differences among local communities. Accordingly, we suggest spatial heterogeneity should be a major focus for maintaining the stability of ecosystem services at larger spatial scales. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Gastropod diversification and community structuring processes in ancient Lake Ohrid: a metacommunity speciation perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauffe, T.; Albrecht, C.; Wilke, T.

2015-09-01

The Balkan Lake Ohrid is the oldest and most speciose freshwater lacustrine system in Europe. However, it remains unclear whether the diversification of its endemic taxa is mainly driven by neutral processes, environmental factors, or species interactions. This calls for a holistic perspective involving both evolutionary processes and ecological dynamics. Such a unifying framework - the metacommunity speciation model - considers how community assembly affects diversification and vice versa by assessing the relative contribution of the three main community assembly processes, dispersal limitation, environmental filtering, and species interaction. The current study therefore used the species-rich model taxon Gastropoda to assess how extant communities in Lake Ohrid are structured by performing process based metacommunity analyses. Specifically, the study aimed at (i) identifying the relative importance of the three community assembly processes and (ii) to test whether the importance of these individual processes changes gradually with lake depth or whether they are distinctively related to eco-zones. Based on specific simulation steps for each of the three processes, it could be demonstrated that dispersal limitation had the strongest influence on gastropod community structures in Lake Ohrid. However, it was not the exclusive assembly process but acted together with the other two processes - environmental filtering, and species interaction. In fact, the relative importance of the three community assembly processes varied both with lake depth and eco-zones, though the processes were better predicted by the latter. The study thus corroborated the high importance of dispersal limitation for both maintaining species richness in Lake Ohrid (through its impact on community structure) and generating endemic biodiversity (via its influence on diversification processes). However, according to the metacommunity speciation model, the inferred importance of environmental

Metacommunity ecology meets biogeography: effects of geographical region, spatial dynamics and environmental filtering on community structure in aquatic organisms.

PubMed

Heino, Jani; Soininen, Janne; Alahuhta, Janne; Lappalainen, Jyrki; Virtanen, Risto

2017-01-01

Metacommunity patterns and underlying processes in aquatic organisms have typically been studied within a drainage basin. We examined variation in the composition of six freshwater organismal groups across various drainage basins in Finland. We first modelled spatial structures within each drainage basin using Moran eigenvector maps. Second, we partitioned variation in community structure among three groups of predictors using constrained ordination: (1) local environmental variables, (2) spatial variables, and (3) dummy variable drainage basin identity. Third, we examined turnover and nestedness components of multiple-site beta diversity, and tested the best fit patterns of our datasets using the "elements of metacommunity structure" analysis. Our results showed that basin identity and local environmental variables were significant predictors of community structure, whereas within-basin spatial effects were typically negligible. In half of the organismal groups (diatoms, bryophytes, zooplankton), basin identity was a slightly better predictor of community structure than local environmental variables, whereas the opposite was true for the remaining three organismal groups (insects, macrophytes, fish). Both pure basin and local environmental fractions were, however, significant after accounting for the effects of the other predictor variable sets. All organismal groups exhibited high levels of beta diversity, which was mostly attributable to the turnover component. Our results showed consistent Clementsian-type metacommunity structures, suggesting that subgroups of species responded similarly to environmental factors or drainage basin limits. We conclude that aquatic communities across large scales are mostly determined by environmental and basin effects, which leads to high beta diversity and prevalence of Clementsian community types.

Prey dispersal rate affects prey species composition and trait diversity in response to multiple predators in metacommunities.

PubMed

Howeth, Jennifer G; Leibold, Mathew A

2010-09-01

1. Recent studies indicate that large-scale spatial processes can alter local community structuring mechanisms to determine local and regional assemblages of predators and their prey. In metacommunities, this may occur when the functional diversity represented in the regional predator species pool interacts with the rate of prey dispersal among local communities to affect prey species diversity and trait composition at multiple scales. 2. Here, we test for effects of prey dispersal rate and spatially and temporally heterogeneous predation from functionally dissimilar predators on prey structure in pond mesocosm metacommunities. An experimental metacommunity consisted of three pond mesocosm communities supporting two differentially size-selective invertebrate predators and their zooplankton prey. In each metacommunity, two communities maintained constant predation and supported either Gyrinus sp. (Coleoptera) or Notonecta ungulata (Hemiptera) predators generating a spatial prey refuge while the third community supported alternating predation from Gyrinus sp. and N. ungulata generating a temporal prey refuge. Mesocosm metacommunities were connected at either low (0.7% day(-1)) or high (10% day(-1)) planktonic prey dispersal. The diversity, composition and body size of zooplankton prey were measured at local and regional (metacommunity) scales. 3. Metacommunities experiencing the low prey dispersal rate supported the greatest regional prey species diversity (H') and evenness (J'). Neither dispersal rate nor predation regime affected local prey diversity or evenness. The spatial prey refuge at low dispersal maintained the largest difference in species composition and body size diversity between communities under Gyrinus and Notonecta predation, suggesting that species sorting was operating at the low dispersal rate. There was no effect of dispersal rate on species diversity or body size distribution in the temporal prey refuge. 4. The frequency distribution, but not

Species dispersal rates alter diversity and ecosystem stability in pond metacommunities.

PubMed

Howeth, Jennifer G; Leibold, Mathew A

2010-09-01

Metacommunity theory suggests that relationships between diversity and ecosystem stability can be determined by the rate of species dispersal among local communities. The predicted relationships, however, may depend upon the relative strength of local environmental processes and disturbance. Here we evaluate the role of dispersal frequency and local predation perturbations in affecting patterns of diversity and stability in pond plankton metacommunities. Pond metacommunities were composed of three mesocosm communities: one of the three communities maintained constant "press" predation from a selective predator, bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus); the second community maintained "press" conditions without predation; and the third community experienced recurrent "pulsed" predation from bluegill sunfish. The triads of pond communities were connected at either no, low (0.7%/d), or high (20%/d) planktonic dispersal. Richness and composition of zooplankton and stability of plankton biomass and ecosystem productivity were measured at local and regional spatial scales. Dispersal significantly affected diversity such that local and regional biotas at the low dispersal rate maintained the greatest number of species. The unimodal local dispersal-diversity relationship was predator-dependent, however, as selective press predation excluded species regardless of dispersal. Further, there was no effect of dispersal on beta diversity because predation generated local conditions that selected for distinct community assemblages. Spatial and temporal ecosystem stability responded to dispersal frequency but not predation. Low dispersal destabilized the spatial stability of producer biomass but stabilized temporal ecosystem productivity. The results indicate that selective predation can prevent species augmentation from mass effects but has no apparent influence on stability. Dispersal rates, in contrast, can have significant effects on both species diversity and ecosystem

A comparative analysis reveals weak relationships between ecological factors and beta diversity of stream insect metacommunities at two spatial levels.

PubMed

Heino, Jani; Melo, Adriano S; Bini, Luis Mauricio; Altermatt, Florian; Al-Shami, Salman A; Angeler, David G; Bonada, Núria; Brand, Cecilia; Callisto, Marcos; Cottenie, Karl; Dangles, Olivier; Dudgeon, David; Encalada, Andrea; Göthe, Emma; Grönroos, Mira; Hamada, Neusa; Jacobsen, Dean; Landeiro, Victor L; Ligeiro, Raphael; Martins, Renato T; Miserendino, María Laura; Md Rawi, Che Salmah; Rodrigues, Marciel E; Roque, Fabio de Oliveira; Sandin, Leonard; Schmera, Denes; Sgarbi, Luciano F; Simaika, John P; Siqueira, Tadeu; Thompson, Ross M; Townsend, Colin R

2015-03-01

The hypotheses that beta diversity should increase with decreasing latitude and increase with spatial extent of a region have rarely been tested based on a comparative analysis of multiple datasets, and no such study has focused on stream insects. We first assessed how well variability in beta diversity of stream insect metacommunities is predicted by insect group, latitude, spatial extent, altitudinal range, and dataset properties across multiple drainage basins throughout the world. Second, we assessed the relative roles of environmental and spatial factors in driving variation in assemblage composition within each drainage basin. Our analyses were based on a dataset of 95 stream insect metacommunities from 31 drainage basins distributed around the world. We used dissimilarity-based indices to quantify beta diversity for each metacommunity and, subsequently, regressed beta diversity on insect group, latitude, spatial extent, altitudinal range, and dataset properties (e.g., number of sites and percentage of presences). Within each metacommunity, we used a combination of spatial eigenfunction analyses and partial redundancy analysis to partition variation in assemblage structure into environmental, shared, spatial, and unexplained fractions. We found that dataset properties were more important predictors of beta diversity than ecological and geographical factors across multiple drainage basins. In the within-basin analyses, environmental and spatial variables were generally poor predictors of variation in assemblage composition. Our results revealed deviation from general biodiversity patterns because beta diversity did not show the expected decreasing trend with latitude. Our results also call for reconsideration of just how predictable stream assemblages are along ecological gradients, with implications for environmental assessment and conservation decisions. Our findings may also be applicable to other dynamic systems where predictability is low.

Strong Spatial Influence on Colonization Rates in a Pioneer Zooplankton Metacommunity

PubMed Central

Frisch, Dagmar; Cottenie, Karl; Badosa, Anna; Green, Andy J.

2012-01-01

The magnitude of community-wide dispersal is central to metacommunity models, yet dispersal is notoriously difficult to quantify in passive and cryptic dispersers such as many freshwater invertebrates. By overcoming the problem of quantifying dispersal rates, colonization rates into new habitats can provide a useful estimate of the magnitude of effective dispersal. Here we study the influence of spatial and local processes on colonization rates into new ponds that indicate differential dispersal limitation of major zooplankton taxa, with important implications for metacommunity dynamics. We identify regional and local factors that affect zooplankton colonization rates and spatial patterns in a large-scale experimental system. Our study differs from others in the unique setup of the experimental pond area by which we were able to test spatial and environmental variables at a large spatial scale. We quantified colonization rates separately for the Copepoda, Cladocera and Rotifera from samples collected over a period of 21 months in 48 newly constructed temporary ponds of 0.18–2.95 ha distributed in a restored wetland area of 2,700 ha in Doñana National Park, Southern Spain. Species richness upon initial sampling of new ponds was about one third of that in reference ponds, although the rate of detection of new species from thereon were not significantly different, probably owing to high turnover in the dynamic, temporary reference ponds. Environmental heterogeneity had no detectable effect on colonization rates in new ponds. In contrast, connectivity, space (based on latitude and longitude) and surface area were key determinants of colonization rates for copepods and cladocerans. This suggests dispersal limitation in cladocerans and copepods, but not in rotifers, possibly due to differences in propagule size and abundance. PMID:22792241

Strong spatial influence on colonization rates in a pioneer zooplankton metacommunity.

PubMed

Frisch, Dagmar; Cottenie, Karl; Badosa, Anna; Green, Andy J

2012-01-01

The magnitude of community-wide dispersal is central to metacommunity models, yet dispersal is notoriously difficult to quantify in passive and cryptic dispersers such as many freshwater invertebrates. By overcoming the problem of quantifying dispersal rates, colonization rates into new habitats can provide a useful estimate of the magnitude of effective dispersal. Here we study the influence of spatial and local processes on colonization rates into new ponds that indicate differential dispersal limitation of major zooplankton taxa, with important implications for metacommunity dynamics. We identify regional and local factors that affect zooplankton colonization rates and spatial patterns in a large-scale experimental system. Our study differs from others in the unique setup of the experimental pond area by which we were able to test spatial and environmental variables at a large spatial scale. We quantified colonization rates separately for the Copepoda, Cladocera and Rotifera from samples collected over a period of 21 months in 48 newly constructed temporary ponds of 0.18-2.95 ha distributed in a restored wetland area of 2,700 ha in Doñana National Park, Southern Spain. Species richness upon initial sampling of new ponds was about one third of that in reference ponds, although the rate of detection of new species from thereon were not significantly different, probably owing to high turnover in the dynamic, temporary reference ponds. Environmental heterogeneity had no detectable effect on colonization rates in new ponds. In contrast, connectivity, space (based on latitude and longitude) and surface area were key determinants of colonization rates for copepods and cladocerans. This suggests dispersal limitation in cladocerans and copepods, but not in rotifers, possibly due to differences in propagule size and abundance.

The role of dispersal mode and habitat specialization for metacommunity structure of shallow beach invertebrates.

PubMed

Rodil, Iván F; Lucena-Moya, Paloma; Jokinen, Henri; Ollus, Victoria; Wennhage, Håkan; Villnäs, Anna; Norkko, Alf

2017-01-01

Metacommunity ecology recognizes the interplay between local and regional patterns in contributing to spatial variation in community structure. In aquatic systems, the relative importance of such patterns depends mainly on the potential connectivity of the specific system. Thus, connectivity is expected to increase in relation to the degree of water movement, and to depend on the specific traits of the study organism. We examined the role of environmental and spatial factors in structuring benthic communities from a highly connected shallow beach network using a metacommunity approach. Both factors contributed to a varying degree to the structure of the local communities suggesting that environmental filters and dispersal-related mechanisms played key roles in determining abundance patterns. We categorized benthic taxa according to their dispersal mode (passive vs. active) and habitat specialization (generalist vs. specialist) to understand the relative importance of environment and dispersal related processes for shallow beach metacommunities. Passive dispersers were predicted by a combination of environmental and spatial factors, whereas active dispersers were not spatially structured and responded only to local environmental factors. Generalists were predicted primarily by spatial factors, while specialists were only predicted by local environmental factors. The results suggest that the role of the spatial component in metacommunity organization is greater in open coastal waters, such as shallow beaches, compared to less-connected environmentally controlled aquatic systems. Our results also reveal a strong environmental role in structuring the benthic metacommunity of shallow beaches. Specifically, we highlight the sensitivity of shallow beach macrofauna to environmental factors related to eutrophication proxies.

The role of dispersal mode and habitat specialization for metacommunity structure of shallow beach invertebrates

PubMed Central

Lucena-Moya, Paloma; Jokinen, Henri; Ollus, Victoria; Wennhage, Håkan; Villnäs, Anna; Norkko, Alf

2017-01-01

Metacommunity ecology recognizes the interplay between local and regional patterns in contributing to spatial variation in community structure. In aquatic systems, the relative importance of such patterns depends mainly on the potential connectivity of the specific system. Thus, connectivity is expected to increase in relation to the degree of water movement, and to depend on the specific traits of the study organism. We examined the role of environmental and spatial factors in structuring benthic communities from a highly connected shallow beach network using a metacommunity approach. Both factors contributed to a varying degree to the structure of the local communities suggesting that environmental filters and dispersal-related mechanisms played key roles in determining abundance patterns. We categorized benthic taxa according to their dispersal mode (passive vs. active) and habitat specialization (generalist vs. specialist) to understand the relative importance of environment and dispersal related processes for shallow beach metacommunities. Passive dispersers were predicted by a combination of environmental and spatial factors, whereas active dispersers were not spatially structured and responded only to local environmental factors. Generalists were predicted primarily by spatial factors, while specialists were only predicted by local environmental factors. The results suggest that the role of the spatial component in metacommunity organization is greater in open coastal waters, such as shallow beaches, compared to less-connected environmentally controlled aquatic systems. Our results also reveal a strong environmental role in structuring the benthic metacommunity of shallow beaches. Specifically, we highlight the sensitivity of shallow beach macrofauna to environmental factors related to eutrophication proxies. PMID:28196112

A Metacommunity Framework for Enhancing the Effectiveness of Biological Monitoring Strategies

PubMed Central

Roque, Fabio O.; Cottenie, Karl

2012-01-01

Because of inadequate knowledge and funding, the use of biodiversity indicators is often suggested as a way to support management decisions. Consequently, many studies have analyzed the performance of certain groups as indicator taxa. However, in addition to knowing whether certain groups can adequately represent the biodiversity as a whole, we must also know whether they show similar responses to the main structuring processes affecting biodiversity. Here we present an application of the metacommunity framework for evaluating the effectiveness of biodiversity indicators. Although the metacommunity framework has contributed to a better understanding of biodiversity patterns, there is still limited discussion about its implications for conservation and biomonitoring. We evaluated the effectiveness of indicator taxa in representing spatial variation in macroinvertebrate community composition in Atlantic Forest streams, and the processes that drive this variation. We focused on analyzing whether some groups conform to environmental processes and other groups are more influenced by spatial processes, and on how this can help in deciding which indicator group or groups should be used. We showed that a relatively small subset of taxa from the metacommunity would represent 80% of the variation in community composition shown by the entire metacommunity. Moreover, this subset does not have to be composed of predetermined taxonomic groups, but rather can be defined based on random subsets. We also found that some random subsets composed of a small number of genera performed better in responding to major environmental gradients. There were also random subsets that seemed to be affected by spatial processes, which could indicate important historical processes. We were able to integrate in the same theoretical and practical framework, the selection of biodiversity surrogates, indicators of environmental conditions, and more importantly, an explicit integration of environmental

Metacommunication, Social Pretend Play and Children with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Douglas, Susan; Stirling, Lesley

2012-01-01

This article investigates processes of engagement in social pretend play between children with autism (age range 3.6 to 7.2 years) and adult play partners, using a large corpus of conversational data. We take a qualitative discourse analytic approach to investigate the metacommunicative strategies used by the children. Our initial framework for…

Biodiversity and ecosystem stability across scales in metacommunities

PubMed Central

Wang, Shaopeng; Loreau, Michel

2016-01-01

Although diversity-stability relationships have been extensively studied in local ecosystems, the global biodiversity crisis calls for an improved understanding of these relationships in a spatial context. Here we use a dynamical model of competitive metacommunities to study the relationships between species diversity and ecosystem variability across scales. We derive analytic relationships under a limiting case; these results are extended to more general cases with numerical simulations. Our model shows that, while alpha diversity decreases local ecosystem variability, beta diversity generally contributes to increasing spatial asynchrony among local ecosystems. Consequently, both alpha and beta diversity provide stabilizing effects for regional ecosystems, through local and spatial insurance effects, respectively. We further show that at the regional scale, the stabilizing effect of biodiversity increases as spatial environmental correlation increases. Our findings have important implications for understanding the interactive effects of global environmental changes (e.g. environmental homogenization) and biodiversity loss on ecosystem sustainability at large scales. PMID:26918536

Biodiversity and ecosystem stability across scales in metacommunities.

PubMed

Wang, Shaopeng; Loreau, Michel

2016-05-01

Although diversity-stability relationships have been extensively studied in local ecosystems, the global biodiversity crisis calls for an improved understanding of these relationships in a spatial context. Here, we use a dynamical model of competitive metacommunities to study the relationships between species diversity and ecosystem variability across scales. We derive analytic relationships under a limiting case; these results are extended to more general cases with numerical simulations. Our model shows that, while alpha diversity decreases local ecosystem variability, beta diversity generally contributes to increasing spatial asynchrony among local ecosystems. Consequently, both alpha and beta diversity provide stabilising effects for regional ecosystems, through local and spatial insurance effects respectively. We further show that at the regional scale, the stabilising effect of biodiversity increases as spatial environmental correlation increases. Our findings have important implications for understanding the interactive effects of global environmental changes (e.g. environmental homogenisation) and biodiversity loss on ecosystem sustainability at large scales. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

A hierarchical framework for investigating epiphyte assemblages: networks, meta-communities, and scale.

PubMed

Burns, K C; Zotz, G

2010-02-01

Epiphytes are an important component of many forested ecosystems, yet our understanding of epiphyte communities lags far behind that of terrestrial-based plant communities. This discrepancy is exacerbated by the lack of a theoretical context to assess patterns in epiphyte community structure. We attempt to fill this gap by developing an analytical framework to investigate epiphyte assemblages, which we then apply to a data set on epiphyte distributions in a Panamanian rain forest. On a coarse scale, interactions between epiphyte species and host tree species can be viewed as bipartite networks, similar to pollination and seed dispersal networks. On a finer scale, epiphyte communities on individual host trees can be viewed as meta-communities, or suites of local epiphyte communities connected by dispersal. Similar analytical tools are typically employed to investigate species interaction networks and meta-communities, thus providing a unified analytical framework to investigate coarse-scale (network) and fine-scale (meta-community) patterns in epiphyte distributions. Coarse-scale analysis of the Panamanian data set showed that most epiphyte species interacted with fewer host species than expected by chance. Fine-scale analyses showed that epiphyte species richness on individual trees was lower than null model expectations. Therefore, epiphyte distributions were clumped at both scales, perhaps as a result of dispersal limitations. Scale-dependent patterns in epiphyte species composition were observed. Epiphyte-host networks showed evidence of negative co-occurrence patterns, which could arise from adaptations among epiphyte species to avoid competition for host species, while most epiphyte meta-communities were distributed at random. Application of our "meta-network" analytical framework in other locales may help to identify general patterns in the structure of epiphyte assemblages and their variation in space and time.

Identifying the core seed bank of a complex boreal bacterial metacommunity.

PubMed

Ruiz-González, Clara; Niño-García, Juan Pablo; Kembel, Steven W; Del Giorgio, Paul A

2017-09-01

Seed banks are believed to contribute to compositional changes within and across microbial assemblages, but the application of this concept to natural communities remains challenging. Here we describe the core seed bank of a bacterial metacommunity from a boreal watershed, using the spatial distribution of bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTUs) across 223 heterogeneous terrestrial, aquatic and phyllosphere bacterial assemblages. Taxa were considered potential seeds if they transitioned from rare to abundant somewhere within the metacommunity and if they were ubiquitous and able to persist under unfavorable conditions, the latter assessed by checking their presence in three deeply sequenced samples (one soil, one river and one lake, 2.2-3 million reads per sample). We show that only a small fraction (13%) of all detected OTUs constitute a metacommunity seed bank that is shared between all terrestrial and aquatic communities, but not by phyllosphere assemblages, which seem to recruit from a different taxa pool. Our results suggest directional recruitment driven by the flow of water in the landscape, since most aquatic sequences were associated to OTUs found in a single deeply-sequenced soil sample, but only 45% of terrestrial sequences belonged to OTUs found in the two deeply-sequenced aquatic communities. Finally, we hypothesize that extreme rarity, and its interplay with water residence time and growth rates, may further constrain the size of the potential seed bank.

Looking for hotspots of marine metacommunity connectivity: a methodological framework

PubMed Central

Melià, Paco; Schiavina, Marcello; Rossetto, Marisa; Gatto, Marino; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Casagrandi, Renato

2016-01-01

Seascape connectivity critically affects the spatiotemporal dynamics of marine metacommunities. Understanding how connectivity patterns emerge from physically and biologically-mediated interactions is therefore crucial to conserve marine ecosystem functions and biodiversity. Here, we develop a set of biophysical models to explore connectivity in assemblages of species belonging to a typical Mediterranean community (Posidonia oceanica meadows) and characterized by different dispersing traits. We propose a novel methodological framework to synthesize species-specific results into a set of community connectivity metrics and show that spatiotemporal variation in magnitude and direction of the connections, as well as interspecific differences in dispersing traits, are key factors structuring community connectivity. We eventually demonstrate how these metrics can be used to characterize the functional role of each marine area in determining patterns of community connectivity at the basin level and to support marine conservation planning. PMID:27029563

Looking for hotspots of marine metacommunity connectivity: a methodological framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melià, Paco; Schiavina, Marcello; Rossetto, Marisa; Gatto, Marino; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Casagrandi, Renato

2016-03-01

Seascape connectivity critically affects the spatiotemporal dynamics of marine metacommunities. Understanding how connectivity patterns emerge from physically and biologically-mediated interactions is therefore crucial to conserve marine ecosystem functions and biodiversity. Here, we develop a set of biophysical models to explore connectivity in assemblages of species belonging to a typical Mediterranean community (Posidonia oceanica meadows) and characterized by different dispersing traits. We propose a novel methodological framework to synthesize species-specific results into a set of community connectivity metrics and show that spatiotemporal variation in magnitude and direction of the connections, as well as interspecific differences in dispersing traits, are key factors structuring community connectivity. We eventually demonstrate how these metrics can be used to characterize the functional role of each marine area in determining patterns of community connectivity at the basin level and to support marine conservation planning.

Assembly processes of gastropod community change with horizontal and vertical zonation in ancient Lake Ohrid: a metacommunity speciation perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauffe, Torsten; Albrecht, Christian; Wilke, Thomas

2016-05-01

The Balkan Lake Ohrid is the oldest and most diverse freshwater lacustrine system in Europe. However, it remains unclear whether species community composition, as well as the diversification of its endemic taxa, is mainly driven by dispersal limitation, environmental filtering, or species interaction. This calls for a holistic perspective involving both evolutionary processes and ecological dynamics, as provided by the unifying framework of the "metacommunity speciation model".The current study used the species-rich model taxon Gastropoda to assess how extant communities in Lake Ohrid are structured by performing process-based metacommunity analyses. Specifically, the study aimed (1) to identifying the relative importance of the three community assembly processes and (2) to test whether the importance of these individual processes changes gradually with lake depth or discontinuously with eco-zone shifts.Based on automated eco-zone detection and process-specific simulation steps, we demonstrated that dispersal limitation had the strongest influence on gastropod community composition. However, it was not the exclusive assembly process, but acted together with the other two processes - environmental filtering and species interaction. The relative importance of the community assembly processes varied both with lake depth and eco-zones, though the processes were better predicted by the latter.This suggests that environmental characteristics have a pronounced effect on shaping gastropod communities via assembly processes. Moreover, the study corroborated the high importance of dispersal limitation for both maintaining species richness in Lake Ohrid (through its impact on community composition) and generating endemic biodiversity (via its influence on diversification processes). However, according to the metacommunity speciation model, the inferred importance of environmental filtering and biotic interaction also suggests a small but significant influence of ecological

The evolution of the competition-dispersal trade-off affects α- and β-diversity in a heterogeneous metacommunity.

PubMed

Laroche, Fabien; Jarne, Philippe; Perrot, Thomas; Massol, Francois

2016-04-27

Difference in dispersal ability is a key driver of species coexistence in metacommunities. However, the available frameworks for interpreting species diversity patterns in natura often overlook trade-offs and evolutionary constraints associated with dispersal. Here, we build a metacommunity model accounting for dispersal evolution and a competition-dispersal trade-off. Depending on the distribution of carrying capacities among communities, species dispersal values are distributed either around a single strategy (evolutionarily stable strategy, ESS), or around distinct strategies (evolutionary branching, EB). We show that limited dispersal generates spatial aggregation of dispersal traits in ESS and EB scenarios, and that the competition-dispersal trade-off strengthens the pattern in the EB scenario. Importantly, individuals in larger (respectively (resp.) smaller) communities tend to harbour lower (resp. higher) dispersal, especially under the EB scenario. We explore how dispersal evolution affects species diversity patterns by comparing those from our model to the predictions of a neutral metacommunity model. The most marked difference is detected under EB, with distinctive values of both α- and β-diversity (e.g. the dissimilarity in species composition between small and large communities was significantly larger than neutral predictions). We conclude that, from an empirical perspective, jointly assessing community carrying capacity with species dispersal strategies should improve our understanding of diversity patterns in metacommunities. © 2016 The Author(s).

Metacommunity and phylogenetic structure determine wildlife and zoonotic infectious disease patterns in time and space.

PubMed

Suzán, Gerardo; García-Peña, Gabriel E; Castro-Arellano, Ivan; Rico, Oscar; Rubio, André V; Tolsá, María J; Roche, Benjamin; Hosseini, Parviez R; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Murray, Kris A; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Vittecoq, Marion; Bailly, Xavier; Aguirre, A Alonso; Daszak, Peter; Prieur-Richard, Anne-Helene; Mills, James N; Guégan, Jean-Francois

2015-02-01

The potential for disease transmission at the interface of wildlife, domestic animals and humans has become a major concern for public health and conservation biology. Research in this subject is commonly conducted at local scales while the regional context is neglected. We argue that prevalence of infection at local and regional levels is influenced by three mechanisms occurring at the landscape level in a metacommunity context. First, (1) dispersal, colonization, and extinction of pathogens, reservoir or vector hosts, and nonreservoir hosts, may be due to stochastic and niche-based processes, thus determining distribution of all species, and then their potential interactions, across local communities (metacommunity structure). Second, (2) anthropogenic processes may drive environmental filtering of hosts, nonhosts, and pathogens. Finally, (3) phylogenetic diversity relative to reservoir or vector host(s), within and between local communities may facilitate pathogen persistence and circulation. Using a metacommunity approach, public heath scientists may better evaluate the factors that predispose certain times and places for the origin and emergence of infectious diseases. The multidisciplinary approach we describe fits within a comprehensive One Health and Ecohealth framework addressing zoonotic infectious disease outbreaks and their relationship to their hosts, other animals, humans, and the environment.

SYNCSA--R tool for analysis of metacommunities based on functional traits and phylogeny of the community components.

PubMed

Debastiani, Vanderlei J; Pillar, Valério D

2012-08-01

SYNCSA is an R package for the analysis of metacommunities based on functional traits and phylogeny of the community components. It offers tools to calculate several matrix correlations that express trait-convergence assembly patterns, trait-divergence assembly patterns and phylogenetic signal in functional traits at the species pool level and at the metacommunity level. SYNCSA is a package for the R environment, under a GPL-2 open-source license and freely available on CRAN official web server for R (http://cran.r-project.org). vanderleidebastiani@yahoo.com.br.

Risk Communication, Metacommunication, and Rhetorical Stases in the Aspen-EPA Superfund Controversy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stratman, James F.; And Others

1995-01-01

Explores the relationship between current theoretical definitions of risk communication, the unique national role that EPA plays in defining health and environmental risks, and possible explanations for EPA's inability to persuade Aspen, Colorado, to accept a cleanup plan. Explores ownership messages conveyed through metacommunication conflict…

Spatial scale of similarity as an indicator of metacommunity stability in exploited marine systems.

PubMed

Shackell, Nancy L; Fisher, Jonathan A D; Frank, Kenneth T; Lawton, Peter

2012-01-01

The spatial scale of similarity among fish communities is characteristically large in temperate marine systems: connectivity is enhanced by high rates of dispersal during the larval/juvenile stages and the increased mobility of large-bodied fish. A larger spatial scale of similarity (low beta diversity) is advantageous in heavily exploited systems because locally depleted populations are more likely to be "rescued" by neighboring areas. We explored whether the spatial scale of similarity changed from 1970 to 2006 due to overfishing of dominant, large-bodied groundfish across a 300 000-km2 region of the Northwest Atlantic. Annually, similarities among communities decayed slowly with increasing geographic distance in this open system, but through time the decorrelation distance declined by 33%, concomitant with widespread reductions in biomass, body size, and community evenness. The decline in connectivity stemmed from an erosion of community similarity among local subregions separated by distances as small as 100 km. Larger fish, of the same species, contribute proportionally more viable offspring, so observed body size reductions will have affected maternal output. The cumulative effect of nonlinear maternal influences on egg/larval quality may have compromised the spatial scale of effective larval dispersal, which may account for the delayed recovery of certain member species. Our study adds strong support for using the spatial scale of similarity as an indicator of metacommunity stability both to understand the spatial impacts of exploitation and to refine how spatial structure is used in management plans.

Collapse of biodiversity in fractured metacommunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Charles; Mehta, Pankaj

2014-03-01

The increasing threat to global biodiversity from climate change, habitat destruction, and other anthropogenic factors motivates the search for features that increase the resistance of ecological communities to destructive disturbances. Recently, Gibson et al (Science 2013) observed that the damming of the Khlong Saeng river in Thailand caused a rapid collapse of biodiversity in the remaining tropical forests. Using a theoretical model that maps the distribution of coexisting species in an ecological community to a disordered system of Ising spins, we show that fracturing a metacommunity by inhibiting species dispersal leads to a collapse in biodiversity in the constituent local communities. The biodiversity collapse can be modeled as a diffusion on a rough energy landscape, and the resulting estimate for the rate of extinction highlights the role of species functional diversity in maintaining biodiversity following a disturbance.

A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective

PubMed Central

Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost

2012-01-01

We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The ‘evolving metacommunity’ framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats. PMID:25568038

A Long-Term Macroecological Analysis of the Recovery of a Waterbird Metacommunity after Site Protection

PubMed Central

Pagel, Janina; Martínez-Abraín, Alejandro; Gómez, Juan Antonio; Jiménez, Juan; Oro, Daniel

2014-01-01

We used the so called “land-bridge island” or “nested-subsets” theory to test the resilience of a highly fragmented and perturbated waterbird metacommunity, after legal protection of 18 wetlands in the western Mediterranean. Sites were monitored during 28 years and two seasons per year. The metacommunity was composed by 44 species during breeding and 67 species during wintering, including shorebirds, ducks, herons, gulls and divers (Podicipedidae). We identified a strong nested pattern. Consistent with the fact that the study system was to a large extent a spatial biogeographical continuous for thousands of years, fragmented only during the last centuries due to human activities. Non-random selective extinction was the most likely historical process creating the nested pattern, operated by the differential carrying capacity (surface-area) of the remaining sites. We also found a positive temporal trend in nestedness and a decreasing trend in species turnover among sites (β-diversity), indicating that sites are increasingly more alike to each other (i.e. increased biotic homogenization). This decreasing trend in β-diversity was explained by an increasing trend in local (α) diversity by range expansion of half the study species. Regional (γ) diversity also increased over time, indicating that colonization from outside the study system also occurred. Overall our results suggest that the study metacommunity is recovering from historical anthropogenic perturbations, showing a high long-term resilience, as expected for highly vagile waterbirds. However, not all waterbird groups contributed equally to the recovery, with most breeding shorebird species and most wintering duck species showing no geographical expansion. PMID:25133798

Crying wolf? Biosecurity and metacommunication in the context of the 2009 swine flu pandemic.

PubMed

Nerlich, Brigitte; Koteyko, Nelya

2012-07-01

This article explores how the 2009 pandemic of swine flu (H1N1) intersected with issues of biosecurity in the context of an increasing entanglement between the spread of disease and the spread of information. Drawing on research into metacommunication, the article studies the rise of communication about ways in which swine flu was communicated, both globally and locally, during the pandemic. It examines and compares two corpora of texts, namely UK newspaper articles and blogs, written between 28 March and 11 June 2009, that is, the period from the start of the outbreak till the WHO announcement of the pandemic. Findings show that the interaction between traditional and digital media as well as the interaction between warnings about swine flu and previous warnings about other epidemics contributed to a heightened discourse of blame and counter-blame but also, more surprisingly, self-blame and reflections about the role the media in pandemic communication. The consequences of this increase in metacommunication for research into crisis communication are explored. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Habitat heterogeneity hypothesis and edge effects in model metacommunities.

PubMed

Hamm, Michaela; Drossel, Barbara

2017-08-07

Spatial heterogeneity is an inherent property of any living environment and is expected to favour biodiversity due to a broader niche space. Furthermore, edges between different habitats can provide additional possibilities for species coexistence. Using computer simulations, this study examines metacommunities consisting of several trophic levels in heterogeneous environments in order to explore the above hypotheses on a community level. We model heterogeneous landscapes by using two different sized resource pools and evaluate the combined effect of dispersal and heterogeneity on local and regional species diversity. This diversity is obtained by running population dynamics and evaluating the robustness (i.e., the fraction of surviving species). The main results for regional robustness are in agreement with the habitat heterogeneity hypothesis, as the largest robustness is found in heterogeneous systems with intermediate dispersal rates. This robustness is larger than in homogeneous systems with the same total amount of resources. We study the edge effect by arranging the two types of resources in two homogeneous blocks. Different edge responses in diversity are observed, depending on dispersal strength. Local robustness is highest for edge habitats that contain the smaller amount of resource in combination with intermediate dispersal. The results show that dispersal is relevant to correctly identify edge responses on community level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On neutral metacommunity patterns of river basins at different scales of aggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Convertino, Matteo; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Azaele, Sandro; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2009-08-01

Neutral metacommunity models for spatial biodiversity patterns are implemented on river networks acting as ecological corridors at different resolution. Coarse-graining elevation fields (under the constraint of preserving the basin mean elevation) produce a set of reconfigured drainage networks. The hydrologic assumption made implies uniform runoff production such that each link has the same habitat capacity. Despite the universal scaling properties shown by river basins regardless of size, climate, vegetation, or exposed lithology, we find that species richness at local and regional scales exhibits resolution-dependent behavior. In addition, we investigate species-area relationships and rank-abundance patterns. The slopes of the species-area relationships, which are consistent over coarse-graining resolutions, match those found in real landscapes in the case of long-distance dispersal. The rank-abundance patterns are independent of the resolution over a broad range of dispersal length. Our results confirm that strong interactions occur between network structure and the dispersal of species and that under the assumption of neutral dynamics, these interactions produce resolution-dependent biodiversity patterns that diverge from expectations following from universal geomorphic scaling laws. Both in theoretical and in applied ecology studying how patterns change in resolution is relevant for understanding how ecological dynamics work in fragmented landscape and for sampling and biodiversity management campaigns, especially in consideration of climate change.

Prior Dietary Practices and Connections to a Human Gut Microbial Metacommunity Alter Responses to Diet Interventions.

PubMed

Griffin, Nicholas W; Ahern, Philip P; Cheng, Jiye; Heath, Andrew C; Ilkayeva, Olga; Newgard, Christopher B; Fontana, Luigi; Gordon, Jeffrey I

2017-01-11

Ensuring that gut microbiota respond consistently to prescribed dietary interventions, irrespective of prior dietary practices (DPs), is critical for effective nutritional therapy. To address this, we identified DP-associated gut bacterial taxa in individuals either practicing chronic calorie restriction with adequate nutrition (CRON) or without dietary restrictions (AMER). When transplanted into gnotobiotic mice, AMER and CRON microbiota responded predictably to CRON and AMER diets but with variable response strengths. An individual's microbiota is connected to other individuals' communities ("metacommunity") by microbial exchange. Sequentially cohousing AMER-colonized mice with two different groups of CRON-colonized mice simulated metacommunity effects, resulting in enhanced responses to a CRON diet intervention and changes in several metabolic features in AMER animals. This response was driven by an influx of CRON DP-associated taxa. Certain DPs may impair responses to dietary interventions, necessitating the introduction of diet-responsive bacterial lineages present in other individuals and identified using the strategies described. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.

2016-12-10

It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable secondmore » maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.« less

Angular Declination and the Dynamic Perception of Egocentric Distance

PubMed Central

Gajewski, Daniel A.; Philbeck, John W.; Wirtz, Philip W.; Chichka, David

2014-01-01

The extraction of the distance between an object and an observer is fast when angular declination is informative, as it is with targets placed on the ground. To what extent does angular declination drive performance when viewing time is limited? Participants judged target distances in a real-world environment with viewing durations ranging from 36–220 ms. An important role for angular declination was supported by experiments showing that the cue provides information about egocentric distance even on the very first glimpse, and that it supports a sensitive response to distance in the absence of other useful cues. Performance was better at 220 ms viewing durations than for briefer glimpses, suggesting that the perception of distance is dynamic even within the time frame of a typical eye fixation. Critically, performance in limited viewing trials was better when preceded by a 15 second preview of the room without a designated target. The results indicate that the perception of distance is powerfully shaped by memory from prior visual experience with the scene. A theoretical framework for the dynamic perception of distance is presented. PMID:24099588

Angular declination and the dynamic perception of egocentric distance.

PubMed

Gajewski, Daniel A; Philbeck, John W; Wirtz, Philip W; Chichka, David

2014-02-01

The extraction of the distance between an object and an observer is fast when angular declination is informative, as it is with targets placed on the ground. To what extent does angular declination drive performance when viewing time is limited? Participants judged target distances in a real-world environment with viewing durations ranging from 36-220 ms. An important role for angular declination was supported by experiments showing that the cue provides information about egocentric distance even on the very first glimpse, and that it supports a sensitive response to distance in the absence of other useful cues. Performance was better at 220-ms viewing durations than for briefer glimpses, suggesting that the perception of distance is dynamic even within the time frame of a typical eye fixation. Critically, performance in limited viewing trials was better when preceded by a 15-s preview of the room without a designated target. The results indicate that the perception of distance is powerfully shaped by memory from prior visual experience with the scene. A theoretical framework for the dynamic perception of distance is presented. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Dynamic hub load predicts cognitive decline after resective neurosurgery.

PubMed

Carbo, Ellen W S; Hillebrand, Arjan; van Dellen, Edwin; Tewarie, Prejaas; de Witt Hamer, Philip C; Baayen, Johannes C; Klein, Martin; Geurts, Jeroen J G; Reijneveld, Jaap C; Stam, Cornelis J; Douw, Linda

2017-02-07

Resective neurosurgery carries the risk of postoperative cognitive deterioration. The concept of 'hub (over)load', caused by (over)use of the most important brain regions, has been theoretically postulated in relation to symptomatology and neurological disease course, but lacks experimental confirmation. We investigated functional hub load and postsurgical cognitive deterioration in patients undergoing lesion resection. Patients (n = 28) underwent resting-state magnetoencephalography and neuropsychological assessments preoperatively and 1-year after lesion resection. We calculated stationary hub load score (SHub) indicating to what extent brain regions linked different subsystems; high SHub indicates larger processing pressure on hub regions. Dynamic hub load score (DHub) assessed its variability over time; low values, particularly in combination with high SHub values, indicate increased load, because of consistently high usage of hub regions. Hypothetically, increased SHub and decreased DHub relate to hub overload and thus poorer/deteriorating cognition. Between time points, deteriorating verbal memory performance correlated with decreasing upper alpha DHub. Moreover, preoperatively low DHub values accurately predicted declining verbal memory performance. In summary, dynamic hub load relates to cognitive functioning in patients undergoing lesion resection: postoperative cognitive decline can be tracked and even predicted using dynamic hub load, suggesting it may be used as a prognostic marker for tailored treatment planning.

When time affects space: Dispersal ability and extreme weather events determine metacommunity organization in marine sediments.

PubMed

Corte, Guilherme N; Gonçalves-Souza, Thiago; Checon, Helio H; Siegle, Eduardo; Coleman, Ross A; Amaral, A Cecília Z

2018-05-01

Community ecology has traditionally assumed that the distribution of species is mainly influenced by environmental processes. There is, however, growing evidence that environmental (habitat characteristics and biotic interactions) and spatial processes (factors that affect a local assemblage regardless of environmental conditions - typically related to dispersal and movement of species) interactively shape biological assemblages. A metacommunity, which is a set of local assemblages connected by dispersal of individuals, is spatial in nature and can be used as a straightforward approach for investigating the interactive and independent effects of both environmental and spatial processes. Here, we examined (i) how environmental and spatial processes affect the metacommunity organization of marine macroinvertebrates inhabiting the intertidal sediments of a biodiverse coastal ecosystem; (ii) whether the influence of these processes is constant through time or is affected by extreme weather events (storms); and (iii) whether the relative importance of these processes depends on the dispersal abilities of organisms. We found that macrobenthic assemblages are influenced by each of environmental and spatial variables; however, spatial processes exerted a stronger role. We also found that this influence changes through time and is modified by storms. Moreover, we observed that the influence of environmental and spatial processes varies according to the dispersal capabilities of organisms. More effective dispersers (i.e., species with planktonic larvae) are more affected by spatial processes whereas environmental variables had a stronger effect on weaker dispersers (i.e. species with low motility in larval and adult stages). These findings highlight that accounting for spatial processes and differences in species life histories is essential to improve our understanding of species distribution and coexistence patterns in intertidal soft-sediments. Furthermore, it shows that

(Meta)communication strategies in inclusive classes for deaf students.

PubMed

Kelman, Celeste Azulay; Branco, Angela Uchôa

2009-01-01

How can an inclusive classroom for deaf students be successful? The use of metacommunication strategies by teachers and hearing peers seems promising. Schools that promote this approach tend to improve deaf students' psychosocial development and academic achievement. However, this is not a general rule. The present study identifies the elements of success, with the investigators basing their analysis on extensive observation of 4 bilingual classes conducted by regular education and specialized teachers. The study was conducted in 3 public elementary schools in Brasilia, Brazil. Data were collected through direct observation (156 hours) and video recording (34 hours). Results were qualitatively analyzed from a microgenetic perspective. The investigators devised 14 categories of social interaction, e.g., visual contact and responsivity, multimodal communication, co-construction of meanings, flexible use of space, and sign language instruction for hearing students.

Hydrology Affects Environmental and Spatial Structuring of Microalgal Metacommunities in Tropical Pacific Coast Wetlands.

PubMed

Rojo, Carmen; Mesquita-Joanes, Francesc; Monrós, Juan S; Armengol, Javier; Sasa, Mahmood; Bonilla, Fabián; Rueda, Ricardo; Benavent-Corai, José; Piculo, Rubén; Segura, M Matilde

2016-01-01

The alternating climate between wet and dry periods has important effects on the hydrology and therefore on niche-based processes of water bodies in tropical areas. Additionally, assemblages of microorganism can show spatial patterns, in the form of a distance decay relationship due to their size or life form. We aimed to test spatial and environmental effects, modulated by a seasonal flooding climatic pattern, on the distribution of microalgae in 30 wetlands of a tropical dry forest region: the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Three surveys were conducted corresponding to the beginning, the highest peak, and the end of the hydrological year during the wet season, and species abundance and composition of planktonic and benthic microalgae was determined. Variation partitioning analysis (as explained by spatial distance or environmental factors) was applied to each seasonal dataset by means of partial redundancy analysis. Our results show that microalgal assemblages were structured by spatial and environmental factors depending on the hydrological period of the year. At the onset of hydroperiod and during flooding, neutral effects dominated community dynamics, but niche-based local effects resulted in more structured algal communities at the final periods of desiccating water bodies. Results suggest that climate-mediated effects on hydrology can influence the relative role of spatial and environmental factors on metacommunities of microalgae. Such variability needs to be accounted in order to describe accurately community dynamics in tropical coastal wetlands.

Hydrology Affects Environmental and Spatial Structuring of Microalgal Metacommunities in Tropical Pacific Coast Wetlands

PubMed Central

Rojo, Carmen; Mesquita-Joanes, Francesc; Monrós, Juan S.; Armengol, Javier; Sasa, Mahmood; Bonilla, Fabián; Rueda, Ricardo; Benavent-Corai, José; Piculo, Rubén; Segura, M. Matilde

2016-01-01

The alternating climate between wet and dry periods has important effects on the hydrology and therefore on niche-based processes of water bodies in tropical areas. Additionally, assemblages of microorganism can show spatial patterns, in the form of a distance decay relationship due to their size or life form. We aimed to test spatial and environmental effects, modulated by a seasonal flooding climatic pattern, on the distribution of microalgae in 30 wetlands of a tropical dry forest region: the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Three surveys were conducted corresponding to the beginning, the highest peak, and the end of the hydrological year during the wet season, and species abundance and composition of planktonic and benthic microalgae was determined. Variation partitioning analysis (as explained by spatial distance or environmental factors) was applied to each seasonal dataset by means of partial redundancy analysis. Our results show that microalgal assemblages were structured by spatial and environmental factors depending on the hydrological period of the year. At the onset of hydroperiod and during flooding, neutral effects dominated community dynamics, but niche-based local effects resulted in more structured algal communities at the final periods of desiccating water bodies. Results suggest that climate-mediated effects on hydrology can influence the relative role of spatial and environmental factors on metacommunities of microalgae. Such variability needs to be accounted in order to describe accurately community dynamics in tropical coastal wetlands. PMID:26900916

Combined effects of zooplankton grazing and dispersal on the diversity and assembly mechanisms of bacterial metacommunities.

PubMed

Berga, Mercè; Östman, Örjan; Lindström, Eva S; Langenheder, Silke

2015-07-01

Effects of dispersal and the presence of predators on diversity, assembly and functioning of bacterial communities are well studied in isolation. In reality, however, dispersal and trophic interactions act simultaneously and can therefore have combined effects, which are poorly investigated. We performed an experiment with aquatic metacommunities consisting of three environmentally different patches and manipulated dispersal rates among them as well as the presence or absence of the keystone species Daphnia magna. Daphnia magna reduced both local and regional diversity, whereas dispersal increased local diversity but decreased beta-diversity having no net effect on regional diversity. Dispersal modified the assembly mechanisms of bacterial communities by increasing the degree of determinism. Additionally, the combination of the D. magna and dispersal increased the importance of deterministic processes, presumably because predator-tolerant taxa were spread in the metacommunity via dispersal. Moreover, the presence of D. magna affected community composition, increased community respiration rates but did not affect bacterial production or abundance, whereas dispersal slightly increased bacterial production. In conclusion, our study suggests that predation by a keystone species such as D. magna and dispersal additively influence bacterial diversity, assembly processes and ecosystem functioning. © 2014 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of species' similarity and dominance on the functional and phylogenetic structure of a plant meta-community.

PubMed

Chalmandrier, L; Münkemüller, T; Lavergne, S; Thuiller, W

2015-01-01

Different assembly processes drive the spatial structure of meta-communities (beta-diversity). Recently, functional and phylogenetic diversities have been suggested as indicators of these assembly processes. Assuming that diversity is a good proxy for niche overlap, high beta-diversity along environmental gradients should be the result of environmental filtering while low beta-diversity should stem from competitive interactions. So far, studies trying to disentangle the relative importance of these assembly processes have provided mixed results. One reason for this may be that these studies often rely on a single measure of diversity and thus implicitly make a choice on how they account for species relative abundances and how species similarities are captured by functional traits or phylogeny. Here, we tested the effect of gradually scaling the importance of dominance (the weight given to dominant vs. rare species) and species similarity (the weight given to small vs. large similarities) on resulting beta-diversity patterns of an alpine plant meta-community. To this end, we combined recent extensions of the Hill numbers framework with Pagel's phylogenetic tree transformation approach. We included functional (based on the leaf-height-seed spectrum) and phylogenetic facets of beta-diversity in our analysis and explicitly accounted for effects of environmental and spatial covariates. We found that functional beta-diversity, was high when the same weight was given to dominant vs. rare species and to large vs. small species' similarities. In contrast, phylogenetic beta-diversity was low when greater weight was given to dominant species and small species' similarities. Those results suggested that different environments along the gradients filtered different species according to their functional traits, while, the same competitive lineages dominated communities across the gradients. Our results highlight that functional vs. phylogenetic facets, presence-absence vs

Metacommunity theory as a multispecies, multiscale framework for studying the influence of river network structure on riverine communities and ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, B.L.; Swan, C.M.; Auerbach, D.A.; Campbell, Grant E.H.; Hitt, N.P.; Maloney, K.O.; Patrick, C.

2011-01-01

Explaining the mechanisms underlying patterns of species diversity and composition in riverine networks is challenging. Historically, community ecologists have conceived of communities as largely isolated entities and have focused on local environmental factors and interspecific interactions as the major forces determining species composition. However, stream ecologists have long embraced a multiscale approach to studying riverine ecosystems and have studied both local factors and larger-scale regional factors, such as dispersal and disturbance. River networks exhibit a dendritic spatial structure that can constrain aquatic organisms when their dispersal is influenced by or confined to the river network. We contend that the principles of metacommunity theory would help stream ecologists to understand how the complex spatial structure of river networks mediates the relative influences of local and regional control on species composition. From a basic ecological perspective, the concept is attractive because new evidence suggests that the importance of regional processes (dispersal) depends on spatial structure of habitat and on connection to the regional species pool. The role of local factors relative to regional factors will vary with spatial position in a river network. From an applied perspective, the long-standing view in ecology that local community composition is an indicator of habitat quality may not be uniformly applicable across a river network, but the strength of such bioassessment approaches probably will depend on spatial position in the network. The principles of metacommunity theory are broadly applicable across taxa and systems but seem of particular consequence to stream ecology given the unique spatial structure of riverine systems. By explicitly embracing processes at multiple spatial scales, metacommunity theory provides a foundation on which to build a richer understanding of stream communities.

Interaction effects of different drivers of wild bee decline and their influence on host-pathogen dynamics.

PubMed

Meeus, Ivan; Pisman, Matti; Smagghe, Guy; Piot, Niels

2018-04-01

Wild bee decline is a multi-factorial problem, yet it is crucial to understand the impact of a single driver. Hereto the interaction effects of wild bee decline with multiple natural and anthropogenic stressors need to be clear. This is also true for the driver 'pathogens', as stressor induced disturbances of natural host-pathogen dynamics can unbalance settled virulence equilibria. Invasive species, bee domestication, habitat loss, climate changes and insecticides are recognized drivers of wild bee decline, but all influence host-pathogen dynamics as well. Many wild bee pathogens have multiple hosts, which relaxes the host-density limitation of virulence evolution. In conclusion, disturbances of bee-pathogen dynamics can be compared to a game of Russian roulette. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Drivers of metacommunity structure diverge for common and rare Amazonian tree species.

PubMed

Bispo, Polyanna da Conceição; Balzter, Heiko; Malhi, Yadvinder; Slik, J W Ferry; Dos Santos, João Roberto; Rennó, Camilo Daleles; Espírito-Santo, Fernando D; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Ximenes, Arimatéa C; Bispo, Pitágoras da Conceição

2017-01-01

We analysed the flora of 46 forest inventory plots (25 m x 100 m) in old growth forests from the Amazonian region to identify the role of environmental (topographic) and spatial variables (obtained using PCNM, Principal Coordinates of Neighbourhood Matrix analysis) for common and rare species. For the analyses, we used multiple partial regression to partition the specific effects of the topographic and spatial variables on the univariate data (standardised richness, total abundance and total biomass) and partial RDA (Redundancy Analysis) to partition these effects on composition (multivariate data) based on incidence, abundance and biomass. The different attributes (richness, abundance, biomass and composition based on incidence, abundance and biomass) used to study this metacommunity responded differently to environmental and spatial processes. Considering standardised richness, total abundance (univariate) and composition based on biomass, the results for common species differed from those obtained for all species. On the other hand, for total biomass (univariate) and for compositions based on incidence and abundance, there was a correspondence between the data obtained for the total community and for common species. Our data also show that in general, environmental and/or spatial components are important to explain the variability in tree communities for total and common species. However, with the exception of the total abundance, the environmental and spatial variables measured were insufficient to explain the attributes of the communities of rare species. These results indicate that predicting the attributes of rare tree species communities based on environmental and spatial variables is a substantial challenge. As the spatial component was relevant for several community attributes, our results demonstrate the importance of using a metacommunities approach when attempting to understand the main ecological processes underlying the diversity of tropical forest

Variation in habitat connectivity generates positive correlations between species and genetic diversity in a metacommunity.

PubMed

Lamy, T; Jarne, P; Laroche, F; Pointier, J-P; Huth, G; Segard, A; David, P

2013-09-01

An increasing number of studies are simultaneously investigating species diversity (SD) and genetic diversity (GD) in the same systems, looking for 'species- genetic diversity correlations' (SGDCs). From negative to positive SGDCs have been reported, but studies have generally not quantified the processes underlying these correlations. They were also mostly conducted at large biogeographical scales or in recently degraded habitats. Such correlations have not been looked for in natural networks of connected habitat fragments (metacommunities), and the underlying processes remain elusive in most systems. We investigated these issues by studying freshwater snails in a pond network in Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles). We recorded SD and habitat characteristics in 232 ponds and assessed GD in 75 populations of two species. Strongly significant and positive SGDCs were detected in both species. Based on a decomposition of SGDC as a function of variance-covariance of habitat characteristics, we showed that connectivity (opportunity of water flow between a site and the nearest watershed during the rainy season) has the strongest contribution on SGDCs. More connective sites received both more alleles and more species through immigration resulting in both higher GD and higher SD. Other habitat characteristics did not contribute, or contributed negatively, to SGDCs. This is true of the desiccation frequency of ponds during the dry season, presumably because species markedly differ in their ability to tolerate desiccation. Our study shows that variation in environmental characteristics of habitat patches can promote SGDCs at metacommunity scale when the studied species respond homogeneously to these environmental characteristics. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An extended patch-dynamic framework for food chains in fragmented landscapes

PubMed Central

Liao, Jinbao; Chen, Jiehong; Ying, Zhixia; Hiebeler, David E.; Nijs, Ivan

2016-01-01

Habitat destruction, a key determinant of species loss, can be characterized by two components, patch loss and patch fragmentation, where the former refers to the reduction in patch availability, and the latter to the division of the remaining patches. Classical metacommunity models have recently explored how food web dynamics respond to patch loss, but the effects of patch fragmentation have largely been overlooked. Here we develop an extended patch-dynamic model that tracks the patch occupancy of the various trophic links subject to colonization-extinction-predation dynamics by incorporating species dispersal with patch connectivity. We found that, in a simple food chain, species at higher trophic level become extinct sooner with increasing patch loss and fragmentation due to the constraint in resource availability, confirming the trophic rank hypothesis. Yet, effects of fragmentation on species occupancy are largely determined by patch loss, with maximal fragmentation effects occurring at intermediate patch loss. Compared to the spatially explicit simulations that we also performed, the current model with pair approximation generates similar community patterns especially in spatially clustered landscapes. Overall, our extended framework can be applied to model more complex food webs in fragmented landscapes, broadening the scope of existing metacommunity theory. PMID:27608823

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

PubMed

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

2015-04-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Connectivity, non-random extinction and ecosystem function in experimental metacommunities.

PubMed

Staddon, Philip; Lindo, Zoë; Crittenden, Peter D; Gilbert, Francis; Gonzalez, Andrew

2010-05-01

The spatial insurance hypothesis indicates that connectivity is an important attribute of natural ecosystems that sustains both biodiversity and ecosystem function. We tested the hypothesis by measuring the impact of manipulating connectivity in experimental metacommunties of a natural and diverse microecosystem. Isolation led to the extinction of large-bodied apex predators, subsequently followed by increases in prey species abundance. This trophic cascade was associated with significantly altered carbon and nitrogen fluxes in fragmented treatments. The ecosystem impacts were characteristic of a function debt because they persisted for several generations after the initial loss of connectivity. Local extinctions and disruption of ecosystem processes were mitigated, and even reversed, by the presence of corridors in the connected metacommunities, although these beneficial effects were unexpectedly delayed. We hypothesized that corridors maintained grazer movement between fragments, which enhanced microbial activity, and decomposition in comparison to isolated fragments. Our results indicate that knowledge of habitat connectivity and spatial processes is essential to understand the magnitude and timing of ecosystem perturbation in fragmented landscapes.

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2015-01-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Inferring the effects of potential dispersal routes on the metacommunity structure of stream insects: as the crow flies, as the fish swims or as the fox runs?

PubMed

Kärnä, Olli-Matti; Grönroos, Mira; Antikainen, Harri; Hjort, Jan; Ilmonen, Jari; Paasivirta, Lauri; Heino, Jani

2015-09-01

1. Metacommunity research relies largely on proxies for inferring the effect of dispersal on local community structure. Overland and watercourse distances have been typically used as such proxies. A good proxy for dispersal should, however, take into account more complex landscape features that can affect an organism's movement and dispersal. The cost distance approach does just that, allowing determining the path of least resistance across a landscape. 2. Here, we examined the distance decay of assemblage similarity within a subarctic stream insect metacommunity. We tested whether overland, watercourse and cumulative cost distances performed differently as correlates of dissimilarity in assemblage composition between sites. We also investigated the effect of body size and dispersal mode on metacommunity organization. 3. We found that dissimilarities in assemblage composition correlated more strongly with environmental than physical distances between sites. Overland and watercourse distances showed similar correlations to assemblage dissimilarity between sites, being sometimes significantly correlated with biological variation of entire insect communities. In metacommunities deconstructed by body size or dispersal mode, contrary to our expectation, passive dispersers showed a slightly stronger correlation than active dispersers to environmental differences between sites, although passive dispersers also showed a stronger correlation than active dispersers to physical distances between sites. The strength of correlation between environmental distance and biological dissimilarity also varied slightly among the body size classes. 4. After controlling for environmental differences between sites, cumulative cost distances were slightly better correlates of biological dissimilarities than overland or watercourse distances between sites. However, quantitative differences in correlation coefficients were small between different physical distances. 5. Although environmental

Siblings of patients with Crohn's disease exhibit a biologically relevant dysbiosis in mucosal microbial metacommunities.

PubMed

Hedin, Charlotte; van der Gast, Christopher J; Rogers, Geraint B; Cuthbertson, Leah; McCartney, Sara; Stagg, Andrew J; Lindsay, James O; Whelan, Kevin

2016-06-01

To determine the existence of mucosal dysbiosis in siblings of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) using 454 pyrosequencing and to comprehensively characterise and determine the influence of genotypical and phenotypical factors, on that dysbiosis. Siblings of patients with CD have elevated risk of developing CD and display aspects of disease phenotype, including faecal dysbiosis. Whether the mucosal microbiota is disrupted in these at-risk individuals is unknown. Rectal biopsy DNA was extracted from 21 patients with quiescent CD, 17 of their healthy siblings and 19 unrelated healthy controls. Mucosal microbiota was analysed by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing and were classified into core and rare species. Genotypical risk was determined using Illumina Immuno BeadChip, faecal calprotectin by ELISA and blood T-cell phenotype by flow cytometry. Core microbiota of both patients with CD and healthy siblings was significantly less diverse than controls. Metacommunity profiling (Bray-Curtis (SBC) index) showed the sibling core microbial composition to be more similar to CD (SBC=0.70) than to healthy controls, whereas the sibling rare microbiota was more similar to healthy controls (SBC=0.42). Faecalibacterium prausnitzii contributed most to core metacommunity dissimilarity both between siblings and controls, and between patients and controls. Phenotype/genotype markers of CD risk significantly influenced microbiota variation between and within groups, of which genotype had the largest effect. Individuals with elevated CD-risk display mucosal dysbiosis characterised by reduced diversity of core microbiota and lower abundance of F. prausnitzii. This dysbiosis in healthy people at risk of CD implicates microbiological processes in CD pathogenesis. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Dynamic patterns and ecological impacts of declining ocean pH in a high-resolution multi-year dataset.

PubMed

Wootton, J Timothy; Pfister, Catherine A; Forester, James D

2008-12-02

Increasing global concentrations of atmospheric CO(2) are predicted to decrease ocean pH, with potentially severe impacts on marine food webs, but empirical data documenting ocean pH over time are limited. In a high-resolution dataset spanning 8 years, pH at a north-temperate coastal site declined with increasing atmospheric CO(2) levels and varied substantially in response to biological processes and physical conditions that fluctuate over multiple time scales. Applying a method to link environmental change to species dynamics via multispecies Markov chain models reveals strong links between in situ benthic species dynamics and variation in ocean pH, with calcareous species generally performing more poorly than noncalcareous species in years with low pH. The models project the long-term consequences of these dynamic changes, which predict substantial shifts in the species dominating the habitat as a consequence of both direct effects of reduced calcification and indirect effects arising from the web of species interactions. Our results indicate that pH decline is proceeding at a more rapid rate than previously predicted in some areas, and that this decline has ecological consequences for near shore benthic ecosystems.

Pattern of age-associated decline of static and dynamic balance in community-dwelling older women.

PubMed

Takeshima, Nobuo; Islam, Mohammod M; Rogers, Michael E; Koizumi, Daisuke; Tomiyama, Naoki; Narita, Makoto; Rogers, Nicole L

2014-07-01

Falling is the leading cause of injury-related deaths in older adults, and a loss of balance is often the precursor to a fall. However, little is known about the rate at which balance declines with age. The objective of the present study was to determine whether there is an age-associated decline in static (SB) and/or dynamic (DB) balance in community-dwelling older women. SB and DB were determined in 971 older women. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were used to determine test-retest reliability. Sway velocity was used to measure SB standing on a platform and foam with eyes open and closed. DB was characterized by limits of stability (LOS) that measured end-point excursion (EXE) and maximum excursion (MXE) of the body's center of pressure. ICC for EXE and MXE for the LOS test were excellent (EPE = 0.96, MXE = 0.96). ICC for SB tests, except for the eyes open firm surface condition (ICC = 0.10), showed a high level of reproducibility (ICC = 0.88 and 0.90). Relationships existed between age and SB (r = 0.31, P < 0.001), and between age and DB (r = -0.46--0.48, P < 0.001). The rate of decline for both DB and SB was approximately 1% per year. Age was significantly associated with all balance measures. DB got significantly lower with advancing age until 80 years, and then plateaued. SB did not decline with age until 80 years, and then decreased significantly thereafter. Although large individual variation was found with balance ability, an age-related decline was found with both dynamic and static balance for Japanese older women. © 2013 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Scale-Dependence of Processes Structuring Dung Beetle Metacommunities Using Functional Diversity and Community Deconstruction Approaches

PubMed Central

da Silva, Pedro Giovâni; Hernández, Malva Isabel Medina

2015-01-01

Community structure is driven by mechanisms linked to environmental, spatial and temporal processes, which have been successfully addressed using metacommunity framework. The relative importance of processes shaping community structure can be identified using several different approaches. Two approaches that are increasingly being used are functional diversity and community deconstruction. Functional diversity is measured using various indices that incorporate distinct community attributes. Community deconstruction is a way to disentangle species responses to ecological processes by grouping species with similar traits. We used these two approaches to determine whether they are improvements over traditional measures (e.g., species composition, abundance, biomass) for identification of the main processes driving dung beetle (Scarabaeinae) community structure in a fragmented mainland-island landscape in southern Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We sampled five sites in each of four large forest areas, two on the mainland and two on the island. Sampling was performed in 2012 and 2013. We collected abundance and biomass data from 100 sampling points distributed over 20 sampling sites. We studied environmental, spatial and temporal effects on dung beetle community across three spatial scales, i.e., between sites, between areas and mainland-island. The γ-diversity based on species abundance was mainly attributed to β-diversity as a consequence of the increase in mean α- and β-diversity between areas. Variation partitioning on abundance, biomass and functional diversity showed scale-dependence of processes structuring dung beetle metacommunities. We identified two major groups of responses among 17 functional groups. In general, environmental filters were important at both local and regional scales. Spatial factors were important at the intermediate scale. Our study supports the notion of scale-dependence of environmental, spatial and temporal processes in the distribution

Metacommunity composition of web-spiders in a fragmented neotropical forest: relative importance of environmental and spatial effects.

PubMed

Baldissera, Ronei; Rodrigues, Everton N L; Hartz, Sandra M

2012-01-01

The distribution of beta diversity is shaped by factors linked to environmental and spatial control. The relative importance of both processes in structuring spider metacommunities has not yet been investigated in the Atlantic Forest. The variance explained by purely environmental, spatially structured environmental, and purely spatial components was compared for a metacommunity of web spiders. The study was carried out in 16 patches of Atlantic Forest in southern Brazil. Field work was done in one landscape mosaic representing a slight gradient of urbanization. Environmental variables encompassed plot- and patch-level measurements and a climatic matrix, while principal coordinates of neighbor matrices (PCNMs) acted as spatial variables. A forward selection procedure was carried out to select environmental and spatial variables influencing web-spider beta diversity. Variation partitioning was used to estimate the contribution of pure environmental and pure spatial effects and their shared influence on beta-diversity patterns, and to estimate the relative importance of selected environmental variables. Three environmental variables (bush density, land use in the surroundings of patches, and shape of patches) and two spatial variables were selected by forward selection procedures. Variation partitioning revealed that 15% of the variation of beta diversity was explained by a combination of environmental and PCNM variables. Most of this variation (12%) corresponded to pure environmental and spatially environmental structure. The data indicated that (1) spatial legacy was not important in explaining the web-spider beta diversity; (2) environmental predictors explained a significant portion of the variation in web-spider composition; (3) one-third of environmental variation was due to a spatial structure that jointly explains variation in species distributions. We were able to detect important factors related to matrix management influencing the web-spider beta

Dispersal rates affect species composition in metacommunities of Sarracenia purpurea inquilines.

PubMed

Kneitel, Jamie M; Miller, Thomas E

2003-08-01

Dispersal among local communities can have a variety of effects on species composition and diversity at local and regional scales. Local conditions (e.g., resource and predator densities) can have independent effects, as well as interact with dispersal, to alter these patterns. Based on metacommunity models, we predicted that local diversity would show a unimodal relationship with dispersal frequency. We manipulated dispersal frequencies, resource levels, and the presence of predators (mosquito larvae) among communities found in the water-filled leaves of the pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. Diversity and abundance of species of the middle trophic level, protozoa and rotifers, were measured. Increased dispersal frequencies significantly increased regional species richness and protozoan abundance while decreasing the variance among local communities. Dispersal frequency interacted with predation at the local community scale to produce patterns of diversity consistent with the model. When predators were absent, we found a unimodal relationship between dispersal frequency and diversity, and when predators were present, there was a flat relationship. Intermediate dispersal frequencies maintained some species in the inquiline communities by offsetting extinction rates. Local community composition and the degree of connectivity between communities are both important for understanding species diversity patterns at local and regional scales.

Habitat dynamics, marine reserve status, and the decline and recovery of coral reef fish communities.

PubMed

Williamson, David H; Ceccarelli, Daniela M; Evans, Richard D; Jones, Geoffrey P; Russ, Garry R

2014-02-01

Severe climatic disturbance events often have major impacts on coral reef communities, generating cycles of decline and recovery, and in some extreme cases, community-level phase shifts from coral-to algal-dominated states. Benthic habitat changes directly affect reef fish communities, with low coral cover usually associated with low fish diversity and abundance. No-take marine reserves (NTRs) are widely advocated for conserving biodiversity and enhancing the sustainability of exploited fish populations. Numerous studies have documented positive ecological and socio-economic benefits of NTRs; however, the ability of NTRs to ameliorate the effects of acute disturbances on coral reefs has seldom been investigated. Here, we test these factors by tracking the dynamics of benthic and fish communities, including the important fishery species, coral trout (Plectropomus spp.), over 8 years in both NTRs and fished areas in the Keppel Island group, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Two major disturbances impacted the reefs during the monitoring period, a coral bleaching event in 2006 and a freshwater flood plume in 2011. Both disturbances generated significant declines in coral cover and habitat complexity, with subsequent declines in fish abundance and diversity, and pronounced shifts in fish assemblage structure. Coral trout density also declined in response to the loss of live coral, however, the approximately 2:1 density ratio between NTRs and fished zones was maintained over time. The only post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks were within the NTRs that escaped the worst effects of the disturbances. Although NTRs had little discernible effect on the temporal dynamics of benthic or fish communities, it was evident that the post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks within some NTRs may be critically important to regional-scale population persistence and recovery.

Habitat dynamics, marine reserve status, and the decline and recovery of coral reef fish communities

PubMed Central

Williamson, David H; Ceccarelli, Daniela M; Evans, Richard D; Jones, Geoffrey P; Russ, Garry R

2014-01-01

Severe climatic disturbance events often have major impacts on coral reef communities, generating cycles of decline and recovery, and in some extreme cases, community-level phase shifts from coral-to algal-dominated states. Benthic habitat changes directly affect reef fish communities, with low coral cover usually associated with low fish diversity and abundance. No-take marine reserves (NTRs) are widely advocated for conserving biodiversity and enhancing the sustainability of exploited fish populations. Numerous studies have documented positive ecological and socio-economic benefits of NTRs; however, the ability of NTRs to ameliorate the effects of acute disturbances on coral reefs has seldom been investigated. Here, we test these factors by tracking the dynamics of benthic and fish communities, including the important fishery species, coral trout (Plectropomus spp.), over 8 years in both NTRs and fished areas in the Keppel Island group, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Two major disturbances impacted the reefs during the monitoring period, a coral bleaching event in 2006 and a freshwater flood plume in 2011. Both disturbances generated significant declines in coral cover and habitat complexity, with subsequent declines in fish abundance and diversity, and pronounced shifts in fish assemblage structure. Coral trout density also declined in response to the loss of live coral, however, the approximately 2:1 density ratio between NTRs and fished zones was maintained over time. The only post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks were within the NTRs that escaped the worst effects of the disturbances. Although NTRs had little discernible effect on the temporal dynamics of benthic or fish communities, it was evident that the post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks within some NTRs may be critically important to regional-scale population persistence and recovery. PMID:24634720

Functional diversity and redundancy across fish gut, sediment and water bacterial communities.

PubMed

Escalas, Arthur; Troussellier, Marc; Yuan, Tong; Bouvier, Thierry; Bouvier, Corinne; Mouchet, Maud A; Flores Hernandez, Domingo; Ramos Miranda, Julia; Zhou, Jizhong; Mouillot, David

2017-08-01

This article explores the functional diversity and redundancy in a bacterial metacommunity constituted of three habitats (sediment, water column and fish gut) in a coastal lagoon under anthropogenic pressure. Comprehensive functional gene arrays covering a wide range of ecological processes and stress resistance genes to estimate the functional potential of bacterial communities were used. Then, diversity partitioning was used to characterize functional diversity and redundancy within (α), between (β) and across (γ) habitats. It was showed that all local communities exhibit a highly diversified potential for the realization of key ecological processes and resistance to various environmental conditions, supporting the growing evidence that macro-organisms microbiomes harbour a high functional potential and are integral components of functional gene dynamics in aquatic bacterial metacommunities. Several levels of functional redundancy at different scales of the bacterial metacommunity were observed (within local communities, within habitats and at the metacommunity level). The results suggested a high potential for the realization of spatial ecological insurance within this ecosystem, that is, the functional compensation among microorganisms for the realization and maintenance of key ecological processes, within and across habitats. Finally, the role of macro-organisms as dispersal vectors of microbes and their potential influence on marine metacommunity dynamics were discussed. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Combined effects of thinning and decline on fine root dynamics in a Quercus robur L. forest adjoining the Italian Pre-Alps

PubMed Central

Montecchio, L.; Barion, G.; Dal Cortivo, C.; Vamerali, T.

2017-01-01

Abstract Aims Oak decline is a complex phenomenon, characterized by symptoms of canopy transparency, bark cracks and root biomass reduction. Root health status is one of the first stress indicators, and root turnover is a key process in plant adaptation to unfavourable conditions. In this study, the combined effects of decline and thinning were evaluated on fine root dynamics in an oak forest adjoining the Italian Pre-Alps by comparison of acute declining trees with non-declining trees, both with and without thinning treatment of surrounding trees. Methods Dynamics of volumetric root length density (RLDV) and tip density (RTDV), root tip density per unit length of root (RTDL), diameter, branching index (BI) and mycorrhizal colonization were monitored by soil coring over 2 years as possible descriptors of decline. Key Results At the beginning of the experiment, the relationship between canopy transparency and root status was weak, declining trees having slightly lower RLDV (–20 %) and RTDV (–11 %). After a 1 year lag, during which the parameters were almost unaffected, BI and RLDV, together with tip density, tip vitality and mycorrhizal colonization, became the descriptors most representative of both decline class and thinning. Thinning of declining trees increased RLDV (+12 %) and RTDV (+32 %), but reduced tip mycorrhizal colonization and vitality over time compared with non-thinned trees, whereas the opposite occurred in healthy trees, together with a marked decrease in branching. After thinning, there was an initial reduction in the structure of the ectomycorrhizal community, although recovery occurred about 10 months later, regardless of decline severity. Conclusions Decline causes losses of fine root length, and a moderate recovery can be achieved by thinning, allowing better soil exploration by oak roots. The close correlation between root vitality and mycorrhizal colonization and their deterioration after thinning indicates that decline does not benefit

Predators modify biogeographic constraints on species distributions in an insect metacommunity.

PubMed

Grainger, Tess Nahanni; Germain, Rachel M; Jones, Natalie T; Gilbert, Benjamin

2017-03-01

Theory describing the positive effects of patch size and connectivity on diversity in fragmented systems has stimulated a large body of empirical work, yet predicting when and how local species interactions mediate these responses remains challenging. We used insects that specialize on milkweed plants as a model metacommunity to investigate how local predation alters the effects of biogeographic constraints on species distributions. Species-specific dispersal ability and susceptibility to predation were used to predict when patch size and connectivity should shape species distributions, and when these should be modified by local predator densities. We surveyed specialist herbivores and their predators in milkweed patches in two matrix types, a forest and an old field. Predator-resistant species showed the predicted direct positive effects of patch size and connectivity on occupancy rates. For predator-susceptible species, predators consistently altered the impact of biogeographic constraints, rather than acting independently. Finally, differences between matrix types in species' responses and overall occupancy rates indicate a potential role of the inter-patch environment in mediating the joint effects of predators and spatial drivers. Together, these results highlight the importance of local top-down pressure in mediating classic biogeographic relationships, and demonstrate how species-specific responses to local and regional constraints can be used to predict these effects. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Combined effects of thinning and decline on fine root dynamics in a Quercus robur L. forest adjoining the Italian Pre-Alps.

PubMed

Mosca, E; Montecchio, L; Barion, G; Dal Cortivo, C; Vamerali, T

2017-05-01

Oak decline is a complex phenomenon, characterized by symptoms of canopy transparency, bark cracks and root biomass reduction. Root health status is one of the first stress indicators, and root turnover is a key process in plant adaptation to unfavourable conditions. In this study, the combined effects of decline and thinning were evaluated on fine root dynamics in an oak forest adjoining the Italian Pre-Alps by comparison of acute declining trees with non-declining trees, both with and without thinning treatment of surrounding trees. Dynamics of volumetric root length density (RLD V ) and tip density (RTD V ), root tip density per unit length of root (RTD L ), diameter, branching index (BI) and mycorrhizal colonization were monitored by soil coring over 2 years as possible descriptors of decline. At the beginning of the experiment, the relationship between canopy transparency and root status was weak, declining trees having slightly lower RLD V (-20 %) and RTD V (-11 %). After a 1 year lag, during which the parameters were almost unaffected, BI and RLD V , together with tip density, tip vitality and mycorrhizal colonization, became the descriptors most representative of both decline class and thinning. Thinning of declining trees increased RLD V (+12 %) and RTD V (+32 %), but reduced tip mycorrhizal colonization and vitality over time compared with non-thinned trees, whereas the opposite occurred in healthy trees, together with a marked decrease in branching. After thinning, there was an initial reduction in the structure of the ectomycorrhizal community, although recovery occurred about 10 months later, regardless of decline severity. Decline causes losses of fine root length, and a moderate recovery can be achieved by thinning, allowing better soil exploration by oak roots. The close correlation between root vitality and mycorrhizal colonization and their deterioration after thinning indicates that decline does not benefit from reduced root competition

Novel Method of Production Decline Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Shan; Lan, Yifei; He, Lei; Jiao, Yang; Wu, Yong

2018-02-01

ARPS decline curves is the most commonly used in oil and gas field due to its minimal data requirements and ease application. And prediction of production decline which is based on ARPS analysis rely on known decline type. However, when coefficient index are very approximate under different decline type, it is difficult to directly recognize decline trend of matched curves. Due to difficulties above, based on simulation results of multi-factor response experiments, a new dynamic decline prediction model is introduced with using multiple linear regression of influence factors. First of all, according to study of effect factors of production decline, interaction experimental schemes are designed. Based on simulated results, annual decline rate is predicted by decline model. Moreover, the new method is applied in A gas filed of Ordos Basin as example to illustrate reliability. The result commit that the new model can directly predict decline tendency without needing recognize decline style. From arithmetic aspect, it also take advantage of high veracity. Finally, the new method improves the evaluation method of gas well production decline in low permeability gas reservoir, which also provides technical support for further understanding of tight gas field development laws.

Natural selection for costly nutrient recycling in simulated microbial metacommunities.

PubMed

Boyle, Richard A; Williams, Hywel T P; Lenton, Timothy M

2012-11-07

Recycling of essential nutrients occurs at scales from microbial communities to global biogeochemical cycles, often in association with ecological interactions in which two or more species utilise each others' metabolic by-products. However, recycling loops may be unstable; sequences of reactions leading to net recycling may be parasitised by side-reactions causing nutrient loss, while some reactions in any closed recycling loop are likely to be costly to participants. Here we examine the stability of nutrient recycling loops in an individual-based ecosystem model based on microbial functional types that differ in their metabolism. A supplied nutrient is utilised by a "source" functional type, generating a secondary nutrient that is subsequently used by two other types-a "mutualist" that regenerates the initial nutrient at a growth rate cost, and a "parasite" that produces a refractory waste product but does not incur any additional cost. The three functional types are distributed across a metacommunity in which separate patches are linked by a stochastic diffusive migration process. Regions of high mutualist abundance feature high levels of nutrient recycling and increased local population density leading to greater export of individuals, allowing the source-mutualist recycling loop to spread across the system. Individual-level selection favouring parasites is balanced by patch-level selection for high productivity, indirectly favouring mutualists due to the synergistic productivity benefits of the recycling loop they support. This suggests that multi-level selection may promote nutrient cycling and thereby help to explain the apparent ubiquity and stability of nutrient recycling in nature.

Age-Related Decline in the Variation of Dynamic Functional Connectivity: A Resting State Analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Yuanyuan; Wang, Weiwei; Zhao, Xin; Sha, Miao; Liu, Ya'nan; Zhang, Xiong; Ma, Jianguo; Ni, Hongyan; Ming, Dong

2017-01-01

Normal aging is typically characterized by abnormal resting-state functional connectivity (FC), including decreasing connectivity within networks and increasing connectivity between networks, under the assumption that the FC over the scan time was stationary. In fact, the resting-state FC has been shown in recent years to vary over time even within minutes, thus showing the great potential of intrinsic interactions and organization of the brain. In this article, we assumed that the dynamic FC consisted of an intrinsic dynamic balance in the resting brain and was altered with increasing age. Two groups of individuals ( N = 36, ages 20-25 for the young group; N = 32, ages 60-85 for the senior group) were recruited from the public data of the Nathan Kline Institute. Phase randomization was first used to examine the reliability of the dynamic FC. Next, the variation in the dynamic FC and the energy ratio of the dynamic FC fluctuations within a higher frequency band were calculated and further checked for differences between groups by non-parametric permutation tests. The results robustly showed modularization of the dynamic FC variation, which declined with aging; moreover, the FC variation of the inter-network connections, which mainly consisted of the frontal-parietal network-associated and occipital-associated connections, decreased. In addition, a higher energy ratio in the higher FC fluctuation frequency band was observed in the senior group, which indicated the frequency interactions in the FC fluctuations. These results highly supported the basis of abnormality and compensation in the aging brain and might provide new insights into both aging and relevant compensatory mechanisms.

A neighborhood analysis of the consequences of Quercus suber decline for regeneration dynamics in Mediterranean forests.

PubMed

Ibáñez, Beatriz; Gómez-Aparicio, Lorena; Stoll, Peter; Ávila, José M; Pérez-Ramos, Ignacio M; Marañón, Teodoro

2015-01-01

In forests, the vulnerable seedling stage is largely influenced by the canopy, which modifies the surrounding environment. Consequently, any alteration in the characteristics of the canopy, such as those promoted by forest dieback, might impact regeneration dynamics. Our work analyzes the interaction between canopy neighbors and seedlings in Mediterranean forests affected by the decline of their dominant species (Quercus suber). Our objective was to understand how the impacts of neighbor trees and shrubs on recruitment could affect future dynamics of these declining forests. Seeds of the three dominant tree species (Quercus suber, Olea europaea and Quercus canariensis) were sown in six sites during two consecutive years. Using a spatially-explicit, neighborhood approach we developed models that explained the observed spatial variation in seedling emergence, survival, growth and photochemical efficiency as a function of the size, identity, health, abundance and distribution of adult trees and shrubs in the neighborhood. We found strong neighborhood effects for all the performance estimators, particularly seedling emergence and survival. Tree neighbors positively affected emergence, independently of species identity or health. Alternatively, seedling survival was much lower in neighborhoods dominated by defoliated and dead Q. suber trees than in neighborhoods dominated by healthy trees. For the two oak species, these negative effects were consistent over the three years of the experimental seedlings. These results indicate that ongoing changes in species' relative abundance and canopy trees' health might alter the successional trajectories of Mediterranean oak-forests through neighbor-specific impacts on seedlings. The recruitment failure of dominant late-successional oaks in the gaps opened after Q. suber death would indirectly favor the establishment of other coexisting woody species, such as drought-tolerant shrubs. This could lead current forests to shift into

Age-Related Decline in the Variation of Dynamic Functional Connectivity: A Resting State Analysis

PubMed Central

Chen, Yuanyuan; Wang, Weiwei; Zhao, Xin; Sha, Miao; Liu, Ya’nan; Zhang, Xiong; Ma, Jianguo; Ni, Hongyan; Ming, Dong

2017-01-01

Normal aging is typically characterized by abnormal resting-state functional connectivity (FC), including decreasing connectivity within networks and increasing connectivity between networks, under the assumption that the FC over the scan time was stationary. In fact, the resting-state FC has been shown in recent years to vary over time even within minutes, thus showing the great potential of intrinsic interactions and organization of the brain. In this article, we assumed that the dynamic FC consisted of an intrinsic dynamic balance in the resting brain and was altered with increasing age. Two groups of individuals (N = 36, ages 20–25 for the young group; N = 32, ages 60–85 for the senior group) were recruited from the public data of the Nathan Kline Institute. Phase randomization was first used to examine the reliability of the dynamic FC. Next, the variation in the dynamic FC and the energy ratio of the dynamic FC fluctuations within a higher frequency band were calculated and further checked for differences between groups by non-parametric permutation tests. The results robustly showed modularization of the dynamic FC variation, which declined with aging; moreover, the FC variation of the inter-network connections, which mainly consisted of the frontal-parietal network-associated and occipital-associated connections, decreased. In addition, a higher energy ratio in the higher FC fluctuation frequency band was observed in the senior group, which indicated the frequency interactions in the FC fluctuations. These results highly supported the basis of abnormality and compensation in the aging brain and might provide new insights into both aging and relevant compensatory mechanisms. PMID:28713261

Down deadwood dynamics on a severely impacted oak decline site

Treesearch

Martin A. Spetich

2007-01-01

Following a 3-year drought from 1998 to 2000, oak decline symptoms began to appear throughout many parts of the Ozark Highland region of Arkansas and Missouri. Changes in down deadwood that occurred at one site during the oak decline event are described and discussed. In 2000, 24 deadwood measurement plots 0.2025 ha (45 m by 45 m) in size were established. The down...

Fibrillar amyloid correlates of preclinical cognitive decline.

PubMed

Stonnington, Cynthia M; Chen, Kewei; Lee, Wendy; Locke, Dona E C; Dueck, Amylou C; Liu, Xiaofen; Roontiva, Auttawut; Fleisher, Adam S; Caselli, Richard J; Reiman, Eric M

2014-01-01

It is not known whether preclinical cognitive decline is associated with fibrillar β-amyloid (Aβ) deposition irrespective of apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 status. From a prospective observational study of 623 cognitively normal individuals, we identified all subjects who showed preclinical decline of at least 2 standard deviations beyond the decline of the entire group in memory or executive function. Fourteen decliners were matched by APOE ε4 gene dose, age, sex, and education with 14 nondecliners. Dynamic Pittsburgh compound B (PiB) positron emission tomography (PET) scans, the Logan method, statistical parametric mapping, and automatically labeled regions of interest were used to characterize and compare cerebral-to-cerebellar PiB distribution volume ratios (DVRs), reflecting fibrillar Aβ burden. At P < .005 (uncorrected), decliners had significantly greater DVRs in comparison to nondecliners. Asymptomatic longitudinal neuropsychological decline is associated with subsequent increased fibrillar amyloid deposition, even when controlling for APOE ε4 genotype. Copyright © 2014 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The core microbiome bonds the Alpine bog vegetation to a transkingdom metacommunity.

PubMed

Bragina, Anastasia; Berg, Christian; Berg, Gabriele

2015-09-01

Bog ecosystems fulfil important functions in Earth's carbon and water turnover. While plant communities and their keystone species Sphagnum have been well studied, less is known about the microbial communities associated with them. To study our hypothesis that bog plants share an essential core of their microbiome despite their different phylogenetic origins, we analysed four plant community plots with 24 bryophytes, vascular plants and lichen species in two Alpine bogs in Austria by 16S rDNA amplicon sequencing followed by bioinformatic analyses. The overall bog microbiome was classified into 32 microbial phyla, while Proteobacteria (30.8%), Verrucomicrobia (20.3%) and Planctomycetes (15.1%) belonged to the most abundant groups. Interestingly, the archaeal phylum Euryarcheota represented 7.2% of total microbial abundance. However, a high portion of micro-organisms remained unassigned at phylum and class level, respectively. The core microbiome of the bog vegetation contained 177 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) (150 526 seq.) and contributed to 49.5% of the total microbial abundance. Only a minor portion of associated core micro-organisms was host specific for examined plant groups (5.9-11.6%). Using our new approach to analyse plant-microbial communities in an integral framework of ecosystem, vegetation and microbiome, we demonstrated that bog vegetation harboured a core microbiome that is shared between plants and lichens over the whole ecosystem and formed a transkingdom metacommunity. All micro- and macro-organisms are connected to keystone Sphagnum mosses via set of microbial species, for example Burkholderia bryophila which was found associated with a wide spectrum of host plants and is known for a beneficial plant-microbe interaction. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Taxon-Function Decoupling as an Adaptive Signature of Lake Microbial Metacommunities Under a Chronic Polymetallic Pollution Gradient

PubMed Central

Cheaib, Bachar; Le Boulch, Malo; Mercier, Pierre-Luc; Derome, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Adaptation of microbial communities to anthropogenic stressors can lead to reductions in microbial diversity and disequilibrium of ecosystem services. Such adaptation can change the molecular signatures of communities with differences in taxonomic and functional composition. Understanding the relationship between taxonomic and functional variation remains a critical issue in microbial ecology. Here, we assessed the taxonomic and functional diversity of a lake metacommunity system along a polymetallic pollution gradient caused by 60 years of chronic exposure to acid mine drainage (AMD). Our results highlight three adaptive signatures. First, a signature of taxon—function decoupling was detected in the microbial communities of moderately and highly polluted lakes. Second, parallel shifts in taxonomic composition occurred between polluted and unpolluted lakes. Third, variation in the abundance of functional modules suggested a gradual deterioration of ecosystem services (i.e., photosynthesis) and secondary metabolism in highly polluted lakes. Overall, changes in the abundance of taxa, function, and more importantly the polymetallic resistance genes such as copA, copB, czcA, cadR, cCusA, were correlated with trace metal content (mainly Cadmium) and acidity. Our findings highlight the impact of polymetallic pollution gradient at the lowest trophic levels. PMID:29774016

Taxon-Function Decoupling as an Adaptive Signature of Lake Microbial Metacommunities Under a Chronic Polymetallic Pollution Gradient.

PubMed

Cheaib, Bachar; Le Boulch, Malo; Mercier, Pierre-Luc; Derome, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Adaptation of microbial communities to anthropogenic stressors can lead to reductions in microbial diversity and disequilibrium of ecosystem services. Such adaptation can change the molecular signatures of communities with differences in taxonomic and functional composition. Understanding the relationship between taxonomic and functional variation remains a critical issue in microbial ecology. Here, we assessed the taxonomic and functional diversity of a lake metacommunity system along a polymetallic pollution gradient caused by 60 years of chronic exposure to acid mine drainage (AMD). Our results highlight three adaptive signatures. First, a signature of taxon-function decoupling was detected in the microbial communities of moderately and highly polluted lakes. Second, parallel shifts in taxonomic composition occurred between polluted and unpolluted lakes. Third, variation in the abundance of functional modules suggested a gradual deterioration of ecosystem services (i.e., photosynthesis) and secondary metabolism in highly polluted lakes. Overall, changes in the abundance of taxa, function, and more importantly the polymetallic resistance genes such as copA, copB, czcA, cadR, cCusA , were correlated with trace metal content (mainly Cadmium) and acidity. Our findings highlight the impact of polymetallic pollution gradient at the lowest trophic levels.

Dynamics of Bacterial and Fungal Communities during the Outbreak and Decline of an Algal Bloom in a Drinking Water Reservoir.

PubMed

Zhang, Haihan; Jia, Jingyu; Chen, Shengnan; Huang, Tinglin; Wang, Yue; Zhao, Zhenfang; Feng, Ji; Hao, Huiyan; Li, Sulin; Ma, Xinxin

2018-02-18

The microbial communities associated with algal blooms play a pivotal role in organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in freshwater ecosystems. However, there have been few studies focused on unveiling the dynamics of bacterial and fungal communities during the outbreak and decline of algal blooms in drinking water reservoirs. To address this issue, the compositions of bacterial and fungal communities were assessed in the Zhoucun drinking water reservoir using 16S rRNA and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) gene Illumina MiSeq sequencing techniques. The results showed the algal bloom was dominated by Synechococcus, Microcystis, and Prochlorothrix. The bloom was characterized by a steady decrease of total phosphorus (TP) from the outbreak to the decline period (p < 0.05) while Fe concentration increased sharply during the decline period (p < 0.05). The highest algal biomass and cell concentrations observed during the bloom were 51.7 mg/L and 1.9×108 cell/L, respectively. The cell concentration was positively correlated with CODMn (r = 0.89, p = 0.02). Illumina Miseq sequencing showed that algal bloom altered the water bacterial and fungal community structure. During the bloom, the dominant bacterial genus were Acinetobacter sp., Limnobacter sp., Synechococcus sp., and Roseomonas sp. The relative size of the fungal community also changed with algal bloom and its composition mainly contained Ascomycota, Basidiomycota and Chytridiomycota. Heat map profiling indicated that algal bloom had a more consistent effect upon fungal communities at genus level. Redundancy analysis (RDA) also demonstrated that the structure of water bacterial communities was significantly correlated to conductivity and ammonia nitrogen. Meanwhile, water temperature, Fe and ammonia nitrogen drive the dynamics of water fungal communities. The results from this work suggested that water bacterial and fungal communities changed significantly during the outbreak and decline of algal bloom in

Dynamics of Bacterial and Fungal Communities during the Outbreak and Decline of an Algal Bloom in a Drinking Water Reservoir

PubMed Central

Zhang, Haihan; Jia, Jingyu; Chen, Shengnan; Huang, Tinglin; Wang, Yue; Zhao, Zhenfang; Feng, Ji; Hao, Huiyan; Li, Sulin; Ma, Xinxin

2018-01-01

The microbial communities associated with algal blooms play a pivotal role in organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in freshwater ecosystems. However, there have been few studies focused on unveiling the dynamics of bacterial and fungal communities during the outbreak and decline of algal blooms in drinking water reservoirs. To address this issue, the compositions of bacterial and fungal communities were assessed in the Zhoucun drinking water reservoir using 16S rRNA and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) gene Illumina MiSeq sequencing techniques. The results showed the algal bloom was dominated by Synechococcus, Microcystis, and Prochlorothrix. The bloom was characterized by a steady decrease of total phosphorus (TP) from the outbreak to the decline period (p < 0.05) while Fe concentration increased sharply during the decline period (p < 0.05). The highest algal biomass and cell concentrations observed during the bloom were 51.7 mg/L and 1.9×108 cell/L, respectively. The cell concentration was positively correlated with CODMn (r = 0.89, p = 0.02). Illumina Miseq sequencing showed that algal bloom altered the water bacterial and fungal community structure. During the bloom, the dominant bacterial genus were Acinetobacter sp., Limnobacter sp., Synechococcus sp., and Roseomonas sp. The relative size of the fungal community also changed with algal bloom and its composition mainly contained Ascomycota, Basidiomycota and Chytridiomycota. Heat map profiling indicated that algal bloom had a more consistent effect upon fungal communities at genus level. Redundancy analysis (RDA) also demonstrated that the structure of water bacterial communities was significantly correlated to conductivity and ammonia nitrogen. Meanwhile, water temperature, Fe and ammonia nitrogen drive the dynamics of water fungal communities. The results from this work suggested that water bacterial and fungal communities changed significantly during the outbreak and decline of algal bloom in

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

Scaling rules for the final decline to extinction

PubMed Central

Griffen, Blaine D.; Drake, John M.

2009-01-01

Space–time scaling rules are ubiquitous in ecological phenomena. Current theory postulates three scaling rules that describe the duration of a population's final decline to extinction, although these predictions have not previously been empirically confirmed. We examine these scaling rules across a broader set of conditions, including a wide range of density-dependent patterns in the underlying population dynamics. We then report on tests of these predictions from experiments using the cladoceran Daphnia magna as a model. Our results support two predictions that: (i) the duration of population persistence is much greater than the duration of the final decline to extinction and (ii) the duration of the final decline to extinction increases with the logarithm of the population's estimated carrying capacity. However, our results do not support a third prediction that the duration of the final decline scales inversely with population growth rate. These findings not only support the current standard theory of population extinction but also introduce new empirical anomalies awaiting a theoretical explanation. PMID:19141422

Dynamics of particulate and dissolved organic and inorganic phosphorus during the peak and declining phase of an iron-induced phytoplankton bloom in the eastern subarctic Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimura, Takeshi; Nishioka, Jun; Ogawa, Hiroshi; Tsuda, Atsushi

2018-01-01

Phosphorus (P) is an essential element for all organisms and thus the P cycle plays a key role in determining the dynamics of lower trophic levels in marine ecosystems. P in seawater occurs conceptually in particulate and dissolved organic and inorganic (POP, PIP, DOP, and DIP, respectively) pools and clarification of the dynamics in these P pools is the basis to assess the biogeochemical cycle of P. Despite its importance, behaviors of each P pool with phytoplankton dynamics have not been fully examined. We measured the four operationally defined P pools (POPop, PIPop, DOPop, and SRP) during an iron-induced phytoplankton bloom (as part of the subarctic ecosystem response to iron enrichment study (SERIES)) in the eastern subarctic Pacific in summer 2002. During our observations of the iron-enriched patch from day 15 to day 26 after the iron infusion, chlorophyll-a concentration in the surface layer decreased from 6.3 to 1.2 μg L- 1, indicating the peak through decline phase of the phytoplankton bloom. At the bloom peak, P was partitioned into POPop, PIPop, and DOPop in proportions of 60, 27, and 13%, respectively. While chlorophyll-a and POPop showed similar temporal variations during the declining phase, PIPop showed a different peak timing with a 2 day delay compared to POPop, resulting in a rapid change in the relative proportion of PIPop to total particulate P (TPP = POPop + PIPop) at the peak (25%) and during the declining phase of the bloom (50%). A part of POPop was replaced by PIPop just after slowing down of phytoplankton growth. This process may have a significant role in the subsequent regeneration of P. We conclude that measurement of TPP alone is insufficient to show the interaction between P and phytoplankton dynamics and fractionation of TPP into POPop and PIPop provides useful insights to clarify the biogeochemical cycle of P.

Ecological consequences of sea-ice decline.

PubMed

Post, Eric; Bhatt, Uma S; Bitz, Cecilia M; Brodie, Jedediah F; Fulton, Tara L; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kerby, Jeffrey; Kutz, Susan J; Stirling, Ian; Walker, Donald A

2013-08-02

After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic sea-ice minima on record, including the historically low minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent developments in the study of ecological responses to sea-ice decline. Sea-ice loss emerges as an important driver of marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics, influencing productivity, species interactions, population mixing, gene flow, and pathogen and disease transmission. Major challenges in the near future include assigning clearer attribution to sea ice as a primary driver of such dynamics, especially in terrestrial systems, and addressing pressures arising from human use of arctic coastal and near-shore areas as sea ice diminishes.

Biomechanical analysis of the single‐leg decline squat

PubMed Central

Zwerver, J; Bredeweg, S W; Hof, A L

2007-01-01

Background The single‐leg squat on a 25° decline board has been described as a clinical assessment tool and as a rehabilitation exercise for patients with patellar tendinopathy. Several assumptions have been made about its working mechanism on patellar load and patellofemoral forces, but these are not substantiated by biomechanical evaluations. Aim To investigate knee moment and patellofemoral contact force as a function of decline angle in the single‐leg squat. Methods Five subjects performed single‐leg eccentric squats at decline angles of 0°, 5°, 10°, 15°, 20° and 25° (with/without a backpack of 10 kg), and 30° on a board that was placed over a forceplate. Kinematic and forceplate data were recorded by the Optotrak system. Joint moments of ankle, knee and hip were calculated by two‐dimensional inverse dynamics. Results Knee moment increased by 40% at decline angles of 15° and higher, whereas hip and ankle moment decreased. Maximum knee and ankle angles increased with steeper decline. With a 10 kg backpack at 25° decline, the knee moment was 23% higher than unloaded. Both patellar tendon and patellofemoral forces increased with higher decline angles, but beyond 60°, the patellofemoral force rose steeper than the tendon force. Conclusions All single‐leg squats at decline angles >15° result in 40% increase in maximum patellar tendon force. In knee flexions >60°, patellofemoral forces increase more than patellar tendon forces. Higher tendon load can be achieved by the use of a backpack with extra weight. PMID:17224441

Factors affecting population dynamics of leaf beetles in a subarctic region: The interplay between climate warming and pollution decline.

PubMed

Zvereva, Elena L; Hunter, Mark D; Zverev, Vitali; Kozlov, Mikhail V

2016-10-01

Understanding the mechanisms by which abiotic drivers, such as climate and pollution, influence population dynamics of animals is important for our ability to predict the population trajectories of individual species under different global change scenarios. We monitored four leaf beetle species (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) feeding on willows (Salix spp.) in 13 sites along a pollution gradient in subarctic forests of north-western Russia from 1993 to 2014. During a subset of years, we also measured the impacts of natural enemies and host plant quality on the performance of one of these species, Chrysomela lapponica. Spring and fall temperatures increased by 2.5-3°C during the 21-year observation period, while emissions of sulfur dioxide and heavy metals from the nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk decreased fivefold. However, contrary to predictions of increasing herbivory with climate warming, and in spite of discovered increase in host plant quality with increase in temperatures, none of the beetle species became more abundant during the past 20years. No directional trends were observed in densities of either Phratora vitellinae or Plagiodera versicolora, whereas densities of both C. lapponica and Gonioctena pallida showed a simultaneous rapid 20-fold decline in the early 2000s, remaining at very low levels thereafter. Time series analysis and model selection indicated that these abrupt population declines were associated with decreases in aerial emissions from the smelter. Observed declines in the population densities of C. lapponica can be explained by increases in mortality from natural enemies due to the combined action of climate warming and declining pollution. This pattern suggests that at least in some tri-trophic systems, top-down factors override bottom-up effects and govern the impacts of environmental changes on insect herbivores. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Community-level education accelerates the cultural evolution of fertility decline.

PubMed

Colleran, Heidi; Jasienska, Grazyna; Nenko, Ilona; Galbarczyk, Andrzej; Mace, Ruth

2014-03-22

Explaining why fertility declines as populations modernize is a profound theoretical challenge. It remains unclear whether the fundamental drivers are economic or cultural in nature. Cultural evolutionary theory suggests that community-level characteristics, for example average education, can alter how low-fertility preferences are transmitted and adopted. These assumptions have not been empirically tested. Here, we show that community-level education accelerates fertility decline in a way that is neither predicted by individual characteristics, nor by the level of economic modernization in a population. In 22 high-fertility communities in Poland, fertility converged on a smaller family size as average education in the community increased-indeed community-level education had a larger impact on fertility decline than did individual education. This convergence was not driven by educational levels being more homogeneous, but by less educated women having fewer children than expected, and more highly educated social networks, when living among more highly educated neighbours. The average level of education in a community may influence the social partners women interact with, both within and beyond their immediate social environments, altering the reproductive norms they are exposed to. Given a critical mass of highly educated women, less educated neighbours may adopt their reproductive behaviour, accelerating the pace of demographic transition. Individual characteristics alone cannot capture these dynamics and studies relying solely on them may systematically underestimate the importance of cultural transmission in driving fertility declines. Our results are inconsistent with a purely individualistic, rational-actor model of fertility decline and suggest that optimization of reproduction is partly driven by cultural dynamics beyond the individual.

Oak Decline

Treesearch

Philip M. Wargo; David R. Houston; Leon A. LaMadeleine

1983-01-01

Periodic occurrences of decline and death of oaks over widespread areas have been recorded since 1900. These outbreaks, variously named oak decline, oak dieback, or oak mortality, are caused by a complex interaction of environmental stresses and pests and given the name oak decline.

Community-level education accelerates the cultural evolution of fertility decline

PubMed Central

Colleran, Heidi; Jasienska, Grazyna; Nenko, Ilona; Galbarczyk, Andrzej; Mace, Ruth

2014-01-01

Explaining why fertility declines as populations modernize is a profound theoretical challenge. It remains unclear whether the fundamental drivers are economic or cultural in nature. Cultural evolutionary theory suggests that community-level characteristics, for example average education, can alter how low-fertility preferences are transmitted and adopted. These assumptions have not been empirically tested. Here, we show that community-level education accelerates fertility decline in a way that is neither predicted by individual characteristics, nor by the level of economic modernization in a population. In 22 high-fertility communities in Poland, fertility converged on a smaller family size as average education in the community increased—indeed community-level education had a larger impact on fertility decline than did individual education. This convergence was not driven by educational levels being more homogeneous, but by less educated women having fewer children than expected, and more highly educated social networks, when living among more highly educated neighbours. The average level of education in a community may influence the social partners women interact with, both within and beyond their immediate social environments, altering the reproductive norms they are exposed to. Given a critical mass of highly educated women, less educated neighbours may adopt their reproductive behaviour, accelerating the pace of demographic transition. Individual characteristics alone cannot capture these dynamics and studies relying solely on them may systematically underestimate the importance of cultural transmission in driving fertility declines. Our results are inconsistent with a purely individualistic, rational-actor model of fertility decline and suggest that optimization of reproduction is partly driven by cultural dynamics beyond the individual. PMID:24500166

Habitat filtering of bacterioplankton communities above polymetallic nodule fields and sediments in the Clarion-Clipperton zone of the Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Lindh, Markus V; Maillot, Brianne M; Smith, Craig R; Church, Matthew J

2018-04-01

Deep-sea mining of commercially valuable polymetallic nodule fields will generate a seabed sediment plume into the water column. Yet, the response of bacterioplankton communities, critical in regulating energy and matter fluxes in marine ecosystems, to such disturbances is unknown. Metacommunity theory, traditionally used in general ecology for macroorganisms, offers mechanistic understanding on the relative role of spatial differences compared with local environmental conditions (habitat filtering) for community assembly. We examined bacterioplankton metacommunities using 16S rRNA amplicons from the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the eastern Pacific Ocean and in global ocean transect samples to determine sensitivity of these assemblages to environmental perturbations. Habitat filtering was the main assembly mechanism of bacterioplankton community composition in the epi- and mesopelagic waters of the CCZ and the Tara Oceans transect. Bathy- and abyssopelagic bacterioplankton assemblages were mainly assembled by undetermined metacommunity types or neutral and dispersal-driven patch-dynamics for the CCZ and the Malaspina transect. Environmental disturbances may alter the structure of upper-ocean microbial assemblages, with potentially even more substantial, yet unknown, impact on deep-sea communities. Predicting such responses in bacterioplankton assemblage dynamics can improve our understanding of microbially-mediated regulation of ecosystem services in the abyssal seabed likely to be exploited by future deep-sea mining operations. © 2018 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Phylogenies support out-of-equilibrium models of biodiversity.

PubMed

Manceau, Marc; Lambert, Amaury; Morlon, Hélène

2015-04-01

There is a long tradition in ecology of studying models of biodiversity at equilibrium. These models, including the influential Neutral Theory of Biodiversity, have been successful at predicting major macroecological patterns, such as species abundance distributions. But they have failed to predict macroevolutionary patterns, such as those captured in phylogenetic trees. Here, we develop a model of biodiversity in which all individuals have identical demographic rates, metacommunity size is allowed to vary stochastically according to population dynamics, and speciation arises naturally from the accumulation of point mutations. We show that this model generates phylogenies matching those observed in nature if the metacommunity is out of equilibrium. We develop a likelihood inference framework that allows fitting our model to empirical phylogenies, and apply this framework to various mammalian families. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that biodiversity dynamics are out of equilibrium. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

A human-driven decline in global burned area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andela, N.

2017-12-01

Fire regimes are changing rapidly across the globe, driven by human land management and climate. We assessed long-term trends in fire activity using multiple satellite data sets and developed a new global data set on individual fire dynamics to understand the implications of changing fire regimes. Despite warming climate, burned area declined across most of the tropics, contributing to a global decline in burned area of 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area was largest in savannas and grasslands, where agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. In tropical forests, frequent fires for deforestation and agricultural management yield a sharp rise in fire activity with the expansion of settled land uses, but the use of fire decreases with increasing investment in agricultural areas in both savanna and forested landscapes. Disparate patterns of recent socieconomic development resulted in contrasting fire trends between southern Africa (increase) and South America (decrease). A strong inverse relationship between burned area and economic development in savannas and grasslands suggests that despite potential increasing fire risk from climate change, ongoing socioeconomic development will likely sustain observed declines in fire in these ecosystems during coming decades. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. The spatiotemporal distribution of fire size, duration, speed and direction of spread provided new insights in continental scale differences in fire regimes driven by human and climatic factors. Understanding these dynamics over larger scales is critical to achieve a balance between conservation of fire-dependent ecosystems and increasing agricultural production to support growing populations that will require careful management of fire activity in human-dominated landscapes.

Oak Decline

Treesearch

Vernon Ammon; T. Evan Nebeker; Ted H. Filer; Francis I. McCracken; J. D. Solomon; H. E. Kennedy

1989-01-01

Occurrence of decline and mortality in this nation's hardwood forests has been documented in reports for the past 130 years. From 1856 through 1981, more than 26 decline events were reported from eight eastern states affecting almost all species of oaks. Fourteen factors have been implicated as either primary or secondary agents responsible for decline and...

Predator Dispersal Determines the Effect of Connectivity on Prey Diversity

PubMed Central

Limberger, Romana; Wickham, Stephen A.

2011-01-01

Linking local communities to a metacommunity can positively affect diversity by enabling immigration of dispersal-limited species and maintenance of sink populations. However, connectivity can also negatively affect diversity by allowing the spread of strong competitors or predators. In a microcosm experiment with five ciliate species as prey and a copepod as an efficient generalist predator, we analysed the effect of connectivity on prey species richness in metacommunities that were either unconnected, connected for the prey, or connected for both prey and predator. Presence and absence of predator dispersal was cross-classified with low and high connectivity. The effect of connectivity on local and regional richness strongly depended on whether corridors were open for the predator. Local richness was initially positively affected by connectivity through rescue of species from stochastic extinctions. With predator dispersal, however, this positive effect soon turned negative as the predator spread over the metacommunity. Regional richness was unaffected by connectivity when local communities were connected only for the prey, while predator dispersal resulted in a pronounced decrease of regional richness. The level of connectivity influenced the speed of richness decline, with regional species extinctions being delayed for one week in weakly connected metacommunities. While connectivity enabled rescue of prey species from stochastic extinctions, deterministic extinctions due to predation were not overcome through reimmigration from predator-free refuges. Prey reimmigrating into these sink habitats appeared to be directly converted into increased predator abundance. Connectivity thus had a positive effect on the predator, even when the predator was not dispersing itself. Our study illustrates that dispersal of a species with strong negative effects on other community members shapes the dispersal-diversity relationship. When connections enable the spread of a

Decline of Tumor Vascular Function as Assessed by Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging Is Associated With Poor Responses to Radiation Therapy and Chemotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Fang-Hsin; Wang, Chun-Chieh; Radiation Biology Research Center, Institute for Radiological Research, Chang Gung University/Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Linkou, Taoyuan, Taiwan

Purpose: To investigate whether changes in the volume transfer coefficient (K{sup trans}) in a growing tumor could be used as a surrogate marker for predicting tumor responses to radiation therapy (RT) and chemotherapy (CT). Methods and Materials: Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) was consecutively performed on tumor-bearing mice, and temporal and spatial changes of K{sup trans} values were measured along with tumor growth. Tumor responses to RT and CT were studied before and after observed changes in K{sup trans} values with time. Results: Dynamic changes with an initial increase and subsequent decline in K{sup trans} values were found tomore » be associated with tumor growth. When each tumor was divided into core and peripheral regions, the K{sup trans} decline was greater in core, although neither vascular structure or necrosis could be linked to this spatial difference. Tumor responses to RT were worse if applied after the decline of K{sup trans}, and there was less drug distribution and cell death in the tumor core after CT. Conclusion: The K{sup trans} value in growing tumors, reflecting the changes of tumor microenvironment and vascular function, is strongly associated with tumor responses to RT and CT and could be a potential surrogate marker for predicting the tumor response to these treatments.« less

Dynamics and genetics of a disease-driven species decline to near extinction: lessons for conservation

PubMed Central

Hudson, M. A.; Young, R. P.; D’Urban Jackson, J.; Orozco-terWengel, P.; Martin, L.; James, A.; Sulton, M.; Garcia, G.; Griffiths, R. A.; Thomas, R.; Magin, C.; Bruford, M. W.; Cunningham, A. A.

2016-01-01

Amphibian chytridiomycosis has caused precipitous declines in hundreds of species worldwide. By tracking mountain chicken (Leptodactylus fallax) populations before, during and after the emergence of chytridiomycosis, we quantified the real-time species level impacts of this disease. We report a range-wide species decline amongst the fastest ever recorded, with a loss of over 85% of the population in fewer than 18 months on Dominica and near extinction on Montserrat. Genetic diversity declined in the wild, but emergency measures to establish a captive assurance population captured a representative sample of genetic diversity from Montserrat. If the Convention on Biological Diversity’s targets are to be met, it is important to evaluate the reasons why they appear consistently unattainable. The emergence of chytridiomycosis in the mountain chicken was predictable, but the decline could not be prevented. There is an urgent need to build mitigation capacity where amphibians are at risk from chytridiomycosis. PMID:27485994

Responses of riparian cottonwoods to alluvial water table declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, M.L.; Shafroth, P.B.; Auble, G.T.

1999-01-01

Human demands for surface and shallow alluvial groundwater have contributed to the loss, fragmentation, and simplification of riparian ecosystems. Populus species typically dominate riparian ecosystems throughout arid and semiarid regions of North American and efforts to minimize loss of riparian Populus requires an integrated understanding of the role of surface and groundwater dynamics in the establishment of new, and maintenance of existing, stands. In a controlled, whole-stand field experiment, we quantified responses of Populus morphology, growth, and mortality to water stress resulting from sustained water table decline following in-channel sand mining along an ephemeral sandbed stream in eastern Colorado, USA. We measured live crown volume, radial stem growth, annual branch increment, and mortality of 689 live Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera stems over four years in conjunction with localized water table declines. Measurements began one year prior to mining and included trees in both affected and unaffected areas. Populus demonstrated a threshold response to water table declines in medium alluvial sands; sustained declines ???1 m produced leaf desiccation and branch dieback within three weeks and significant declines in live crown volume, stem growth, and 88% mortality over a three-year period. Declines in live Crown volume proved to be a significant leading indicator of mortality in the following year. A logistic regression of tree survival probability against the prior year's live crown volume was significant (-2 log likelihood = 270, ??2 with 1 df = 232, P < 0.0001) and trees with absolute declines in live crown volume of ???30 during one year had survival probabilities <0.5 in the following year. In contrast, more gradual water table declines of ~0.5 m had no measurable effect on mortality, stem growth, or live crown volume and produced significant declines only in annual branch growth increments. Developing quantitative information on the timing and

Changes in forest structure associated with oak decline in severely impacted areas of northern Arkansas

Treesearch

Eric Heitzman; Adrian Grell; Martin Spetich; Dale Starkey

2007-01-01

Four mature northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.)–white oak (Quercus alba L.) stands in the Boston Mountains of northern Arkansas were studied to describe the vegetation dynamics of forests heavily impacted by oak decline. Northern red oak was the species most susceptible to decline. Across the four stands, 51–75% of red oak density...

Steeper declines in forest photosynthesis than respiration explain age-driven decreases in forest growth.

PubMed

Tang, Jianwu; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Richardson, Andrew D; Kutsch, Werner; Janssens, Ivan A

2014-06-17

The traditional view of forest dynamics originated by Kira and Shidei [Kira T, Shidei T (1967) Jap J Ecol 17:70-87] and Odum [Odum EP (1969) Science 164(3877):262-270] suggests a decline in net primary productivity (NPP) in aging forests due to stabilized gross primary productivity (GPP) and continuously increased autotrophic respiration (Ra). The validity of these trends in GPP and Ra is, however, very difficult to test because of the lack of long-term ecosystem-scale field observations of both GPP and Ra. Ryan and colleagues [Ryan MG, Binkley D, Fownes JH (1997) Ad Ecol Res 27:213-262] have proposed an alternative hypothesis drawn from site-specific results that aboveground respiration and belowground allocation decreased in aging forests. Here, we analyzed data from a recently assembled global database of carbon fluxes and show that the classical view of the mechanisms underlying the age-driven decline in forest NPP is incorrect and thus support Ryan's alternative hypothesis. Our results substantiate the age-driven decline in NPP, but in contrast to the traditional view, both GPP and Ra decline in aging boreal and temperate forests. We find that the decline in NPP in aging forests is primarily driven by GPP, which decreases more rapidly with increasing age than Ra does, but the ratio of NPP/GPP remains approximately constant within a biome. Our analytical models describing forest succession suggest that dynamic forest ecosystem models that follow the traditional paradigm need to be revisited.

Education and Cognitive Decline in Older Americans: Results From the AHEAD Sample

PubMed Central

Alley, Dawn; Suthers, Kristen; Crimmins, Eileen

2009-01-01

Although education is consistently related to better cognitive performance, findings on the relationship between education and age-associated cognitive change have been conflicting. Using measures of multiple cognitive domains from four waves of the Asset and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old study, a representative sample of Americans aged 70 years and older, the authors performed growth curve modeling to examine the relationships between education, initial cognitive score, and the rate of decline in cognitive function. More years of education were linked to better initial performance on each of the cognitive tests, and higher levels of education were linked to slower decline in mental status. However, more education was unrelated to the rate of decline in working memory, and education was associated with somewhat faster cognitive decline on measures of verbal memory. These findings highlight the role of early-life experiences not only in long-term cognitive performance but also in old-age cognitive trajectories. PMID:19830260

Evidence of disease-related amphibian decline in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muths, Erin; Corn, Paul Stephen; Pessier, Allan P.; Green, D. Earl

2003-01-01

The recent discovery of a pathogenic fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) associated with declines of frogs in the American and Australian tropics, suggests that at least the proximate cause, may be known for many previously unexplained amphibian declines. We have monitored boreal toads in Colorado since 1991 at four sites using capturea??recapture of adults and counts of egg masses to examine the dynamics of this metapopulation. Numbers of male toads declined in 1996 and 1999 with annual survival rate averaging 78% from 1991 to 1994, 45% in 1995 and 3% between 1998 and 1999. Numbers of egg masses also declined. An etiological diagnosis of chytridiomycosis consistent with infections by the genus Batrachochytrium was made in six wild adult toads. Characteristic histomorphological features (i.e. intracellular location, shape of thalli, presence of discharge tubes and rhizoids) of chytrid organisms, and host tissue response (acanthosis and hyperkeratosis) were observed in individual toads. These characteristics were indistinguishable from previously reported mortality events associated with chytrid fungus. We also observed epizootiological features consistent with mortality events associated with chytrid fungus: an increase in the ratio of female:male toads captured, an apparent spread of mortalities within the metapopulation and mortalities restricted to post metamorphic animals. Eleven years of population data suggest that this metapopulation of toads is in danger of extinction, pathological and epizootiological evidence indicates that B. dendrobatidis has played a proximate role in this process

Declining fertility and economic well-being: do education and health ride to the rescue?

PubMed Central

Prettner, Klaus; Bloom, David E.; Strulik, Holger

2015-01-01

It is widely argued that declining fertility slows the pace of economic growth in industrialized countries through its negative effect on labor supply. There are, however, theoretical arguments suggesting that the effect of falling fertility on effective labor supply can be offset by associated behavioral changes. We formalize these arguments by setting forth a dynamic consumer optimization model that incorporates endogenous fertility as well as endogenous education and health investments. The model shows that a fertility decline induces higher education and health investments that are able to compensate for declining fertility under certain circumstances. We assess the theoretical implications by investigating panel data for 118 countries over the period 1980 to 2005 and show that behavioral changes partly mitigate the negative impact of declining fertility on effective labor supply. PMID:26388677

Detecting warning signs of trouble within population fluctuations: using capture-recapture modeling to uncover changes in population dynamics leading to declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Kendall, W.L.; Hines, J.E.; Hatfield, J.S.; Nisbet, I.C.T.

2004-01-01

An intensive mark-recapture/resighting program has been carried out on the Roseate Terns nesting at Falkner Island, Connecticut, since the late 1980s as part of a regional study of the metapopulation dynamics and ecology of the endangered Northwest Atlantic breeding population of this species. Substantial losses of tern eggs and chicks to predation at this colony site began in 1996 when at least five Black-crowned Night-Herons started nocturnal raids. This depredation has been a major factor in the reduction of productivity from an average of about 1.0 chicks/pair for the 10 years before night-heron predation began to as low as about 0.2 chicks/pair in 2002. Recent capture-recapture modelling analyses have detected other important impacts on the population dynamics of the Roseate Terns at this site including a reduction by about half in the 'development-of-residency' rates of first-time breeders, and a substantial decline in the local 'survival-and-fidelity' rates of experienced breeders believed due mostly to increased immigration rates to other colony sites.

Declining occurrence and low colonization probability in freshwater mussel assemblages: A dynamic occurrence modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pandolfo, Tamara J.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Cope, W. Gregory; Heise, Ryan J.; Nichols, Robert B.; Pacifici, Krishna

2017-01-01

Mussel monitoring data are abundant, but methods for analyzing long-term trends in these data are often uninformative or have low power to detect changes. We used a dynamic occurrence model, which accounted for imperfect species detection in surveys, to assess changes in species occurrence in a longterm data set (1986–2011) for the Tar River basin of North Carolina, USA. Occurrence of all species decreased steadily over the time period studied. Occurrence in 1986 ranged from 0.19 for Utterbackia imbecillis to 0.60 for Fusconaia masoni. Occurrence in 2010–2011 ranged from 0.10 for Lampsilis radiata to 0.40 for F. masoni. The maximum difference between occurrence in 1986 and 2011 was a decline of 0.30 for Alasmidonta undulata. Mean persistence for all species was high (0.97, 95% CI ¼ 0.95–0.99); however, mean colonization probability was very low (,0.01, 95% CI ¼ ,0.01–0.01). These results indicate that mussels persisted at sites already occupied but that they have not colonized sites where they had not occurred previously. Our findings highlight the importance of modeling approaches that incorporate imperfect detection in estimating species occurrence and revealing temporal trends to inform conservation planning.

Hickory decline and mortality: Update on hickory decline research

Treesearch

Jennifer Juzwik; Ji-Huyn Park; Linda Haugen

2010-01-01

Research continued through the 2010 field season on the etiology of hickory decline that is characterized by thinning crowns with small, yellow leaves and hickory bark beetle attack on the upper main stem. This research is part of a larger project initiated in 2006 to assess the distribution and determine the cause(s) of Forest Health Monitoring reported decline and...

Climate Variations and Alaska Tundra Vegetation Productivity Declines in Spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Bieniek, P.; Raynolds, M. K.; Epstein, H. E.; Comiso, J. C.; Pinzon, J. E.; Tucker, C. J.

2015-12-01

While sea ice has continued to decline, vegetation productivity increases have declined particularly during spring in Alaska as well as many parts of the Arctic tundra. To understand the processes behind these features we investigate spring climate variations that includes temperature, circulation patterns, and snow cover to determine how these may be contributing to spring browning. This study employs remotely sensed weekly 25-km sea ice concentration, weekly surface temperature, and bi-weekly NDVI from 1982 to 2014. Maximum NDVI (MaxNDVI, Maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), Time Integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI), Summer Warmth Index (SWI, sum of degree months above freezing during May-August), atmospheric reanalysis data, dynamically downscaled climate data, meteorological station data, and snow water equivalent (GlobSnow, assimilated snow data set). We analyzed the data for the full period (1982-2014) and for two sub-periods (1982-1998 and 1999-2014), which were chosen based on the declining Alaska SWI since 1998. MaxNDVI has increased from 1982-2014 over most of the Arctic but has declined from 1999 to 2014 southwest Alaska. TI-NDVI has trends that are similar to those for MaxNDVI for the full period but display widespread declines over the 1999-2014 period. Therefore, as the MaxNDVI has continued to increase overall for the Arctic, TI-NDVI has been declining since 1999 and these declines are particularly noteworthy during spring in Alaska. Spring declines in Alaska have been linked to increased spring snow cover that can delay greenup (Bieniek et al. 2015) but recent ground observations suggest that after an initial warming and greening, late season freezing temperature are damaging the plants. The late season freezing temperature hypothesis will be explored with meteorological climate/weather data sets for Alaska tundra regions. References P.A. Bieniek, US Bhatt, DA Walker, MK Raynolds, JC Comiso, HE Epstein, JE Pinzon, CJ Tucker, RL Thoman, H Tran, N M�

The Dilemma of Decline.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abramowitz, Susan

This paper, one of two related documents, examines the impact of declining enrollments on educational expenditures. It highlights population and social changes that have contributed to the decline and discusses the general financing of schools. Finally, the paper discusses strategies state policymakers can use to manage decline, including…

Local bumble bee decline linked to recovery of honey bees, drought effects on floral resources.

PubMed

Thomson, Diane M

2016-10-01

Time series of abundances are critical for understanding how abiotic factors and species interactions affect population dynamics, but are rarely linked with experiments and also scarce for bee pollinators. This gap is important given concerns about declines in some bee species. I monitored honey bee (Apis mellifera) and bumble bee (Bombus spp.) foragers in coastal California from 1999, when feral A. mellifera populations were low due to Varroa destructor, until 2014. Apis mellifera increased substantially, except between 2006 and 2011, coinciding with declines in managed populations. Increases in A. mellifera strongly correlated with declines in Bombus and reduced diet overlap between them, suggesting resource competition consistent with past experimental results. Lower Bombus numbers also correlated with diminished floral resources. Declines in floral abundances were associated with drought and reduced spring rainfall. These results illustrate how competition with an introduced species may interact with climate to drive local decline of native pollinators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Phylogenetic escalation and decline of plant defense strategies

PubMed Central

Agrawal, Anurag A.; Fishbein, Mark

2008-01-01

As the basal resource in most food webs, plants have evolved myriad strategies to battle consumption by herbivores. Over the past 50 years, plant defense theories have been formulated to explain the remarkable variation in abundance, distribution, and diversity of secondary chemistry and other defensive traits. For example, classic theories of enemy-driven evolutionary dynamics have hypothesized that defensive traits escalate through the diversification process. Despite the fact that macroevolutionary patterns are an explicit part of defense theories, phylogenetic analyses have not been previously attempted to disentangle specific predictions concerning (i) investment in resistance traits, (ii) recovery after damage, and (iii) plant growth rate. We constructed a molecular phylogeny of 38 species of milkweed and tested four major predictions of defense theory using maximum-likelihood methods. We did not find support for the growth-rate hypothesis. Our key finding was a pattern of phyletic decline in the three most potent resistance traits (cardenolides, latex, and trichomes) and an escalation of regrowth ability. Our neontological approach complements more common paleontological approaches to discover directional trends in the evolution of life and points to the importance of natural enemies in the macroevolution of species. The finding of macroevolutionary escalating regowth ability and declining resistance provides a window into the ongoing coevolutionary dynamics between plants and herbivores and suggests a revision of classic plant defense theory. Where plants are primarily consumed by specialist herbivores, regrowth (or tolerance) may be favored over resistance traits during the diversification process. PMID:18645183

Physiological condition of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of the population cycle.

PubMed

Nieminen, Petteri; Huitu, Otso; Henttonen, Heikki; Finnilä, Mikko A J; Voutilainen, Liina; Itämies, Juhani; Kärjä, Vesa; Saarela, Seppo; Halonen, Toivo; Aho, Jari; Mustonen, Anne-Mari

2015-09-01

The dynamics of animal populations are greatly influenced by interactions with their natural enemies and food resources. However, quantifying the relative effects of these factors on demographic rates remains a perpetual challenge for animal population ecology. Food scarcity is assumed to limit the growth and to initiate the decline of cyclic herbivore populations, but this has not been verified with physiological health indices. We hypothesized that individuals in declining populations would exhibit signs of malnutrition-induced deterioration of physiological condition. We evaluated the association of body condition with population cycle phase in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of a population cycle. The bank voles had lower body masses, condition indices and absolute masses of particular organs during the decline. Simultaneously, they had lower femoral masses, mineral contents and densities. Hemoglobin and hematocrit values and several parameters known to respond to food deprivation were unaffected by the population phase. There were no signs of lymphopenia, eosinophilia, granulocytosis or monocytosis. Erythrocyte counts were higher and plasma total protein levels and tissue proportions of essential polyunsaturated fatty acids lower in the population decline. Ectoparasite load was lower and adrenal gland masses or catecholamine concentrations did not suggest higher stress levels. Food availability seems to limit the size of voles during the decline but they can adapt to the prevailing conditions without clear deleterious health effects. This highlights the importance of quantifying individual health state when evaluating the effects of complex trophic interactions on the dynamics of wild animal populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diagnosing School Decline

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duke, Daniel L.

2008-01-01

One of the most important strategies for stopping school decline is recognizing its signs early on and promptly applying appropriate interventions. In this article, the author identifies 11 indicators of school decline that are associated with inadequate and inappropriate responses to the challenges of budget cuts, state and federal mandates, loss…

Decline of recent seabirds inferred from a composite 1000-year record of population dynamics

PubMed Central

Xu, Liqiang; Liu, Xiaodong; Wu, Libin; Sun, Liguang; Zhao, Jinjun; Chen, Lin

2016-01-01

Based on three ornithogenic sediment profiles and seabird subfossils therein from the Xisha Islands, South China Sea, the relative population size of seabirds over the past 1000 years was reconstructed using reflectance spectrum. Here we present an apparent increase and subsequent decline of seabirds on these islands in the South China Sea. Seabird populations peaked during the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1400–1850 AD), implying that the cool climate during the LIA appears to have been more favorable to seabirds on the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea. Climate change partly explains the recent decrease in seabird populations over the past 150 years, but the significant decline and almost complete disappearance thereof on most of the Xisha Islands is probably attributable to human disturbance. Our study reveals the increasing impact of anthropogenic activities on seabird population in recent times. PMID:27748366

Declining scaup populations: issues, hypotheses, and research needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, J.E.; Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.; Clark, R.G.; Custer, Christine M.; Lawrence, J.S.; Pollard, J.B.; Ringelman, J.K.

2000-01-01

The population estimate for greater (Aythya marila) and lesser (Aythya affinis) scaup (combined) has declined dramatically since the early 1980s to record lows in 1998. The 1998 estimate of 3.47 million scaup is far below the goal of 6.3 million set in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), causing concern among biologists and hunters. We summarize issuesof concern, hypotheses for factors contributing to the population decline, and research and management needs recommended by participants of the Scaup Workshop, held in September 1999. We believe that contaminants, lower female survival, and reduced recruitment due to changes in food resources or breedingground habitats are primary factors contributing to the decline. These factors are not mutually exclusive but likely interact across seasons. Workshop participants identified seven action items. We need to further delineate where declines in breeding populations have occurred, with a primary focus on the western Canadian boreal forest, where declines appear to be most pronounced. Productivity in various areas and habitats throughout the breeding range needs to be assessed by conducting retrospective analyses of existing data and by intensive field studies at broad and local scales. Annual and seasonal survival rates need to be determined in order to assess the role of harvest or natural mortality. Effects of contaminants on reproduction, female body condition, and behavior must be investigated. Use, distribution, and role of food resources relative to body condition and reproduction need to be examined to better understand seasonal dynamics of nutrient reserves and the role in reproductive success. Affiliations among breeding, migration, and wintering areas must be assessed in order to understand differential exposure to harvest or contaminants, and differential reproductive success and recruitment. Biologists and agencies need to gather and improve information needed to manage greater and lesser

Environmental species sorting dominates forest-bird community assembly across scales.

PubMed

Özkan, Korhan; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Jeppesen, Erik

2013-01-01

Environmental species sorting and dispersal are seen as key factors in community assembly, but their relative importance and scale dependence remain uncertain, as the extent to which communities are consistently assembled throughout their biomes. To address these issues, we analysed bird metacommunity structure in a 1200-km(2) forested landscape (Istranca Forests) in Turkish Thrace at the margin of the Western Palaearctic (WP) temperate-forest biome. First, we used spatial regressions and Mantel tests to assess the relative importance of environmental and spatial factors as drivers of local species richness and composition within the metacommunity. Second, we analysed species' abundance-occupancy relationship across the metacommunity and used null models to assess whether occupancy is determined by species' environmental niches. Third, we used generalized linear models to test for links between species' metacommunity-wide occupancy and their broader WP regional populations and assessed whether these links are consistent with environmental species sorting. There was strong environmental control on local species richness and composition patterns within the metacommunity, but non-environmental spatial factors had also an important joint role. Null model analyses on randomized communities showed that species' occupancy across the metacommunity was strongly determined by species' environmental niches, with occupancy being related to niche position marginality. Species' metacommunity-wide occupancy correlated with their local abundance as well as with their range size and total abundance for the whole WP, suggesting that the same assembly mechanisms act consistently across local to regional scales. A species specialization index that was estimated by bird species' habitat use across France, incorporating both niche position and breadth, was significantly related to species' occupancy and abundance at both metacommunity and WP regional scales. Hence, the same niche

Regeneration dynamics during oak decline with prescribed fire in the Boston Mountains of Arkansas

Treesearch

Martin A. Spetich

2013-01-01

Northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) seedlings were inventoried in 2000 and again in 2005 to better understand survival of advance regeneration during oak decline. In 2000, basal stem diameter was measured and recorded for 861 individually tagged seedlings that were

Taxonomic and numerical sufficiency in a Lower and Middle Miocene molluscan metacommunity of the Central Paratethys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuschin, Martin; Nawrot, Rafal; Harzhauser, Mathias; Mandic, Oleg

2015-04-01

Among the most important questions in quantitative palaeoecology is how taxonomic and numerical resolution affect the analysis of community and metacommunity patterns. A species-abundance data set (10 localities, 213 bulk samples, 478 species, > 49,000 shells) from Burdigalian, Langhian and Serravallian benthic marine molluscan assemblages of the Central Paratethys was studied for this purpose. Assemblages are from two nearshore habitats (estuarine and marine intertidal) and three subtidal habitats (estuarine, fully marine sandy, and fully marine pelitic), which represent four biozones and four 3rd order depositional sequences over more than three million years, and are developed along the same depth-related environmental gradient. Double-standardized data subsampled to 19 samples per habitat, each with a minimum of 50 specimens, were used to calculate R²-values from PERMANOVA as a measure of differences between habitats at three taxonomic levels (species, genera and families) and at five levels of data transformation (raw abundances, percentages, square-root transformed percentages, fourth-root transformed percentages, presence-absence data). Species discriminate better between habitats than genera and families, but the differences between taxonomic levels are much stronger in the subtidal, where genera and families have more species than than in the intertidal. When all habitats are compared percentages and square-root transformed percentages discriminate equally well and perform better than higher levels of data transformation. Among nearshore and among subtidal habitats, however, the ability to discriminate between habitats increases with the level of data transformation (i.e., it is best for fourth-root transformed percentages and presence-absence data). The impact of decreasing taxonomic resolution is of minor importance in nearshore habitats, which are characterized by similar assemblages showing strong dominance of few widely distributed species, and many

Coin hoards speak of population declines in Ancient Rome

PubMed Central

Turchin, Peter; Scheidel, Walter

2009-01-01

In times of violence, people tend to hide their valuables, which are later recovered unless the owners had been killed or driven away. Thus, the temporal distribution of unrecovered coin hoards is an excellent proxy for the intensity of internal warfare. We use this relationship to resolve a long-standing controversy in Roman history. Depending on who was counted in the early Imperial censuses (adult males or the entire citizenry including women and minors), the Roman citizen population of Italy either declined, or more than doubled, during the first century BCE. This period was characterized by a series of civil wars, and historical evidence indicates that high levels of sociopolitical instability are associated with demographic contractions. We fitted a simple model quantifying the effect of instability (proxied by hoard frequency) on population dynamics to the data before 100 BCE. The model predicts declining population after 100 BCE. This suggests that the vigorous growth scenario is highly implausible. PMID:19805043

Identifying species conservation strategies to reduce disease-associated declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Converse, Sarah J.; Muths, Erin L.; Crockett, Harry J.; Mosher, Brittany A.; Bailey, Larissa L.

2018-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a salient threat to many animal taxa, causing local and global extinctions, altering communities and ecosystem function. The EID chytridiomycosis is a prominent driver of amphibian declines, which is caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). To guide conservation policy, we developed a predictive decision-analytic model that combines empirical knowledge of host-pathogen metapopulation dynamics with expert judgment regarding effects of management actions, to select from potential conservation strategies. We apply our approach to a boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) and Bd system, identifying optimal strategies that balance tradeoffs in maximizing toad population persistence and landscape-level distribution, while considering costs. The most robust strategy is expected to reduce the decline of toad breeding sites from 53% to 21% over 50 years. Our findings are incorporated into management policy to guide conservation planning. Our online modeling application provides a template for managers of other systems challenged by EIDs.

[Clinical experience in communication in autogenous psychotherapy and hypnosis].

PubMed

Eletti, P L; Peresson, L

1983-12-30

Questions relating to communication and metacommunication during two forms of directive psychotherapy (Schultz's autogenous training and hypnosis) are examined. The concept of rigidity and cognitive flexibility with regard to the physician-patient relationship is discussed: abstract-concrete dynamics, abstract generalisation of diagnosis, linguistic egocentricity, stereotypical adaptation to conventional language. Some attention is devoted to Heider's balance theory as the first approach to psychological understanding of the therapeutic relationship. The communicative and metacommunicative process described by the Palo Alto (California) school is discussed. Autogenous psychotherapy and hypnosis extend through the concepts of symmetrical relation and inferior complementarity. The criteria for reaching these objectives are stated, along with the pragmatic methods devised for decoding messages and gaining access to metacommunication. Three clinical cases treated through autogenous training and one with hypnosis are analysed with respect to communication and from the relational standpoint. The patient's messages are decoded, the ambiguity of the communication is detected, and the physician's possible answers are examined at both the technical and the emotive level. It is felt that the correct use of the communicational perspective greatly extends the possibilities of autogenous training and hypnosis. It is not a question of combining relational and autogenous management, but of using the Palo Alto discoveries in the more complete understanding of cases in which psychotherapy is employed.

Theoretical Analysis of Maximum Flow Declination Rate versus Maximum Area Declination Rate in Phonation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Titze, Ingo R.

2006-01-01

Purpose: Maximum flow declination rate (MFDR) in the glottis is known to correlate strongly with vocal intensity in voicing. This declination, or negative slope on the glottal airflow waveform, is in part attributable to the maximum area declination rate (MADR) and in part to the overall inertia of the air column of the vocal tract (lungs to…

Sudden Oak Death in redwood forests: vegetation dynamics in the wake of tanoak decline

Treesearch

Benjamin Ramage; Kevin O’Hara

2010-01-01

Numerous lines of inquiry have concluded that tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus) will continue to experience drastic population declines and may even disappear entirely from redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forests as a result of the exotic disease sudden oak death (SOD) (Maloney and others 2005, McPherson and others 2005,...

Subjective cognitive decline and fall risk in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline.

PubMed

Shirooka, Hidehiko; Nishiguchi, Shu; Fukutani, Naoto; Tashiro, Yuto; Nozaki, Yuma; Aoyama, Tomoki

2018-05-01

The association between subjective cognitive decline and falls has not been clearly determined. Our aim was to explore the effect of subjective cognitive decline on falls in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline. We included 470 older adults (mean age 73.6 ± 5.2; 329 women) living in the community and obtained data on fall history directly from the participants. Subjective cognitive decline was assessed using a self-administered question. Objective cognitive function was measured using the Mini-Mental State Examination. Statistical analyses were carried out separately for participants with objective cognitive decline and those without. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that, among participants without objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls [OR 1.91; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-3.12; p = 0.01). Conversely, among participants with objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was negatively associated with falls (OR 0.07; 95% CI 0.01-0.85, p = 0.04). The result suggests that the objective-subjective disparity may affect falls in community-dwelling older adults. The presence of subjective cognitive decline was significantly positively associated with falls among cognitively intact older adults. However, among their cognitively impaired peers, the absence of subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls.

Decline in Antarctic Ozone Depletion and Lower Stratospheric Chlorine Determined From Aura Microwave Limb Sounder Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.

2018-01-01

Attribution of Antarctic ozone recovery to the Montreal protocol requires evidence that (1) Antarctic chlorine levels are declining and (2) there is a reduction in ozone depletion in response to a chlorine decline. We use Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of O3, HCl, and N2O to demonstrate that inorganic chlorine (Cly) from 2013 to 2016 was 223 ± 93 parts per trillion lower in the Antarctic lower stratosphere than from 2004 to 2007 and that column ozone depletion declined in response. The mean Cly decline rate, 0.8%/yr, agrees with the expected rate based on chlorofluorocarbon lifetimes. N2O measurements are crucial for identifying changes in stratospheric Cly loading independent of dynamical variability. From 2005 to 2016, the ozone depletion and Cly time series show matching periods of decline, stability, and increase. The observed sensitivity of O3 depletion to changing Cly agrees with the sensitivity simulated by the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry transport model integrated with Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications 2 meteorology.

Oak decline around the world

Treesearch

Kurt W. Gottschalk; Philip M. Wargo

1997-01-01

Oak (Quercus spp.) decline is a malady related to the consequences of stress and successful attack of stressed trees by opportunistic (secondary) organisms (Wargo et al. 1983). It is a progressive process where trees decline in health for several years before they die. Houston (1981) developed a model of declines that is presented in Figure 1. So...

History of sugar maple decline

Treesearch

David R. Houston

1999-01-01

Only a few episodes of sugar maple dieback or decline were recorded during the first half of the 20th Century. In contrast, the last 50 years have provided numerous reports of both urban and forest dieback/decline. In the late 1950s, a defoliation-triggered decline, termed maple blight, that occurred in Wisconsin prompted the first comprehensive, multidisciplinary...

Effects of stream topology on ecological community results from neutral models

EPA Science Inventory

While neutral theory and models have stimulated considerable literature, less well investigated is the effect of topology on neutral metacommunity model simulations. We implemented a neutral metacommunity model using two different stream network topologies, a widely branched netw...

Succession of Ephemeral Secondary Forests and Their Limited Role for the Conservation of Floristic Diversity in a Human-Modified Tropical Landscape

PubMed Central

van Breugel, Michiel; Hall, Jefferson S.; Craven, Dylan; Bailon, Mario; Hernandez, Andres; Abbene, Michele; van Breugel, Paulo

2013-01-01

Both local- and landscape-scale processes drive succession of secondary forests in human-modified tropical landscapes. Nonetheless, until recently successional changes in composition and diversity have been predominantly studied at the patch level. Here, we used a unique dataset with 45 randomly selected sites across a mixed-use tropical landscape in central Panama to study forest succession simultaneously on local and landscape scales and across both life stages (seedling, sapling, juvenile and adult trees) and life forms (shrubs, trees, lianas, and palms). To understand the potential of these secondary forests to conserve tree species diversity, we also evaluated the diversity of species that can persist as viable metapopulations in a dynamic patchwork of short-lived successional forests, using different assumptions about the average relative size at reproductive maturity. We found a deterministic shift in the diversity and composition of the local plant communities as well as the metacommunity, driven by variation in the rate at which species recruited into and disappeared from the secondary forests across the landscape. Our results indicate that dispersal limitation and the successional niche operate simultaneously and shape successional dynamics of the metacommunity of these early secondary forests. A high diversity of plant species across the metacommunity of early secondary forests shows a potential for restoration of diverse forests through natural succession, when trees and fragments of older forests are maintained in the agricultural matrix and land is abandoned or set aside for a long period of time. On the other hand, during the first 32 years the number of species with mature-sized individuals was a relatively small and strongly biased sub-sample of the total species pool. This implies that ephemeral secondary forests have a limited role in the long-term conservation of tree species diversity in human-modified tropical landscapes. PMID:24349283

Investigating Rates of Hunting and Survival in Declining European Lapwing Populations

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Understanding effects of harvest on population dynamics is of major interest, especially for declining species. European lapwing Vanellus vanellus populations increased from the 1960s until the 1980s and declined strongly thereafter. About 400,000 lapwings are harvested annually and it is thus of high conservation relevance to assess whether hunting was a main cause for the observed changes in lapwing population trends. We developed a multi-event cause-specific mortality model which we applied to a long-term ring-recovery data set (1960–2010) of > 360,000 records to estimate survival and cause-specific mortalities. We found no temporal change in survival over the last 50 years for first-year (FY) and older birds (after first-year; AFY) originating from different ringing areas. Mean survival was high, around 0.60 and 0.80 for FY and AFY individuals, respectively. The proportion of total mortality due to hunting was <0.10 over the study period and the estimated proportion of harvested individuals (kill rate) was <0.05 in each year. Our result of constant survival indicates that demographic processes other than survival were responsible for the pronounced change in lapwing population trends in the 1980s. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that hunting was not a significant contributor to the large-scale decline of lapwing populations. To halt the ongoing decline of European lapwing populations management should focus on life history stages other than survival (e.g. productivity). Further analyses are required to investigate the contribution of other demographic rates to the decline of lapwings and to identify the most efficient conservation actions. PMID:27685660

Oak decline

Treesearch

Kenneth J., Jr. Kessler; David R. Houston

1989-01-01

Oak declines are complex plant diseases that result when trees are first stressed by environmental factors and/or living organisms and are then invaded and sometimes killed by opportunistic secondary organisms.

Which language declines more? longitudinal versus cross-sectional decline of picture naming in bilinguals with Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Ivanova, Iva; Salmon, David P; Gollan, Tamar H

2014-05-01

In this study, we investigated dual-language decline in non-balanced bilinguals with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD) both longitudinally and cross-sectionally. We examined patients' naming accuracy on the Boston Naming Test (BNT: Kaplan et al., 1983) over three testing sessions (longitudinal analysis) and compared their performance to that of matched controls (cross-sectional analysis). We found different longitudinal and cross-sectional patterns of decline: Longitudinally, the non-dominant language seemed to decline more steeply than the dominant language, but, cross-sectionally, differences between patients and controls were larger for the dominant than for the non-dominant language, especially at the initial testing session. This differential pattern of results for cross-sectional versus longitudinal decline was supported by correlations between decline measures and BNT item characteristics. Further studies will be needed to better characterize the nature of linguistic decline in bilinguals with AD; however, these results suggest that representational robustness of individual lexical representations, rather than language membership, might determine the time course of decline for naming in bilinguals with AD.

Dinosaurs in decline tens of millions of years before their final extinction

PubMed Central

Sakamoto, Manabu; Benton, Michael J.; Venditti, Chris

2016-01-01

Whether dinosaurs were in a long-term decline or whether they were reigning strong right up to their final disappearance at the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event 66 Mya has been debated for decades with no clear resolution. The dispute has continued unresolved because of a lack of statistical rigor and appropriate evolutionary framework. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we apply a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to model the evolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction through time in Mesozoic dinosaurs, properly taking account of previously ignored statistical violations. We find overwhelming support for a long-term decline across all dinosaurs and within all three dinosaurian subclades (Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda), where speciation rate slowed down through time and was ultimately exceeded by extinction rate tens of millions of years before the K-Pg boundary. The only exceptions to this general pattern are the morphologically specialized herbivores, the Hadrosauriformes and Ceratopsidae, which show rapid species proliferations throughout the Late Cretaceous instead. Our results highlight that, despite some heterogeneity in speciation dynamics, dinosaurs showed a marked reduction in their ability to replace extinct species with new ones, making them vulnerable to extinction and unable to respond quickly to and recover from the final catastrophic event. PMID:27092007

Dinosaurs in decline tens of millions of years before their final extinction.

PubMed

Sakamoto, Manabu; Benton, Michael J; Venditti, Chris

2016-05-03

Whether dinosaurs were in a long-term decline or whether they were reigning strong right up to their final disappearance at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event 66 Mya has been debated for decades with no clear resolution. The dispute has continued unresolved because of a lack of statistical rigor and appropriate evolutionary framework. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we apply a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to model the evolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction through time in Mesozoic dinosaurs, properly taking account of previously ignored statistical violations. We find overwhelming support for a long-term decline across all dinosaurs and within all three dinosaurian subclades (Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda), where speciation rate slowed down through time and was ultimately exceeded by extinction rate tens of millions of years before the K-Pg boundary. The only exceptions to this general pattern are the morphologically specialized herbivores, the Hadrosauriformes and Ceratopsidae, which show rapid species proliferations throughout the Late Cretaceous instead. Our results highlight that, despite some heterogeneity in speciation dynamics, dinosaurs showed a marked reduction in their ability to replace extinct species with new ones, making them vulnerable to extinction and unable to respond quickly to and recover from the final catastrophic event.

Dinosaurs in decline tens of millions of years before their final extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto, Manabu; Benton, Michael J.

2016-05-01

Whether dinosaurs were in a long-term decline or whether they were reigning strong right up to their final disappearance at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event 66 Mya has been debated for decades with no clear resolution. The dispute has continued unresolved because of a lack of statistical rigor and appropriate evolutionary framework. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we apply a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to model the evolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction through time in Mesozoic dinosaurs, properly taking account of previously ignored statistical violations. We find overwhelming support for a long-term decline across all dinosaurs and within all three dinosaurian subclades (Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda), where speciation rate slowed down through time and was ultimately exceeded by extinction rate tens of millions of years before the K-Pg boundary. The only exceptions to this general pattern are the morphologically specialized herbivores, the Hadrosauriformes and Ceratopsidae, which show rapid species proliferations throughout the Late Cretaceous instead. Our results highlight that, despite some heterogeneity in speciation dynamics, dinosaurs showed a marked reduction in their ability to replace extinct species with new ones, making them vulnerable to extinction and unable to respond quickly to and recover from the final catastrophic event.

Long-term monitoring data provide evidence of declining species richness in a river valued for biodiversity conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freeman, Mary C.; Hagler, Megan M.; Bumpers, Phillip M.; Wheeler, Kit; Wengerd, Seth J.; Freeman, Byron J.

2017-01-01

Free-flowing river segments provide refuges for many imperiled aquatic biota that have been extirpated elsewhere in their native ranges. These biodiversity refuges are also foci of conservation concerns because species persisting within isolated habitat fragments may be particularly vulnerable to local environmental change. We have analyzed long-term (14- and 20-y) survey data to assess evidence of fish species declines in two southeastern U.S. rivers where managers and stakeholders have identified potentially detrimental impacts of current and future land uses. The Conasauga River (Georgia and Tennessee) and the Etowah River (Georgia) form free-flowing headwaters of the extensively dammed Coosa River system. These rivers are valued in part because they harbor multiple species of conservation concern, including three federally endangered and two federally threatened fishes. We used data sets comprising annual surveys for fish species at multiple, fixed sites located at river shoals to analyze occupancy dynamics and temporal changes in species richness. Our analyses incorporated repeated site-specific surveys in some years to estimate and account for incomplete species detection, and test for species-specific (rarity, mainstem-restriction) and year-specific (elevated frequencies of low- or high-flow days) covariates on occupancy dynamics. In the Conasauga River, analysis of 26 species at 13 sites showed evidence of temporal declines in colonization rates for nearly all taxa, accompanied by declining species richness. Four taxa (including one federally endangered species) had reduced occupancy across the Conasauga study sites, with three of these taxa apparently absent for at least the last 5 y of the study. In contrast, a similar fauna of 28 taxa at 10 sites in the Etowah River showed no trends in species persistence, colonization, or occupancy. None of the tested covariates showed strong effects on persistence or colonization rates in either river. Previous studies

Trypanosoma cruzi reservoir—triatomine vector co-occurrence networks reveal meta-community effects by synanthropic mammals on geographic dispersal

PubMed Central

Valiente-Banuet, Leopoldo; Sánchez-Cordero, Víctor; Stephens, Christopher R.

2017-01-01

Contemporary patterns of land use and global climate change are modifying regional pools of parasite host species. The impact of host community changes on human disease risk, however, is difficult to assess due to a lack of information about zoonotic parasite host assemblages. We have used a recently developed method to infer parasite-host interactions for Chagas Disease (CD) from vector-host co-occurrence networks. Vector-host networks were constructed to analyze topological characteristics of the network and ecological traits of species’ nodes, which could provide information regarding parasite regional dispersal in Mexico. Twenty-eight triatomine species (vectors) and 396 mammal species (potential hosts) were included using a data-mining approach to develop models to infer most-likely interactions. The final network contained 1,576 links which were analyzed to calculate centrality, connectivity, and modularity. The model predicted links of independently registered Trypanosoma cruzi hosts, which correlated with the degree of parasite-vector co-occurrence. Wiring patterns differed according to node location, while edge density was greater in Neotropical as compared to Nearctic regions. Vectors with greatest public health importance (i.e., Triatoma dimidiata, T. barberi, T. pallidipennis, T. longipennis, etc), did not have stronger links with particular host species, although they had a greater frequency of significant links. In contrast, hosts classified as important based on network properties were synanthropic mammals. The latter were the most common parasite hosts and are likely bridge species between these communities, thereby integrating meta-community scenarios beneficial for long-range parasite dispersal. This was particularly true for rodents, >50% of species are synanthropic and more than 20% have been identified as T. cruzi hosts. In addition to predicting potential host species using the co-occurrence networks, they reveal regions with greater

Terrestrial origin of bacterial communities in complex boreal freshwater networks.

PubMed

Ruiz-González, Clara; Niño-García, Juan Pablo; Del Giorgio, Paul A

2015-08-25

Bacteria inhabiting boreal freshwaters are part of metacommunities where local assemblages are often linked by the flow of water in the landscape, yet the resulting spatial structure and the boundaries of the network metacommunity have never been explored. Here, we reconstruct the spatial structure of the bacterial metacommunity in a complex boreal aquatic network by determining the taxonomic composition of bacterial communities along the entire terrestrial/aquatic continuum, including soil and soilwaters, headwater streams, large rivers and lakes. We show that the network metacommunity has a directional spatial structure driven by a common terrestrial origin of aquatic communities, which are numerically dominated by taxa recruited from soils. Local community assembly is driven by variations along the hydrological continuum in the balance between mass effects and species sorting of terrestrial taxa, and seems further influenced by priority effects related to the spatial sequence of entry of soil bacteria into the network. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The community ecology of pathogens: coinfection, coexistence and community composition.

PubMed

Seabloom, Eric W; Borer, Elizabeth T; Gross, Kevin; Kendig, Amy E; Lacroix, Christelle; Mitchell, Charles E; Mordecai, Erin A; Power, Alison G

2015-04-01

Disease and community ecology share conceptual and theoretical lineages, and there has been a resurgence of interest in strengthening links between these fields. Building on recent syntheses focused on the effects of host community composition on single pathogen systems, we examine pathogen (microparasite) communities using a stochastic metacommunity model as a starting point to bridge community and disease ecology perspectives. Such models incorporate the effects of core community processes, such as ecological drift, selection and dispersal, but have not been extended to incorporate host-pathogen interactions, such as immunosuppression or synergistic mortality, that are central to disease ecology. We use a two-pathogen susceptible-infected (SI) model to fill these gaps in the metacommunity approach; however, SI models can be intractable for examining species-diverse, spatially structured systems. By placing disease into a framework developed for community ecology, our synthesis highlights areas ripe for progress, including a theoretical framework that incorporates host dynamics, spatial structuring and evolutionary processes, as well as the data needed to test the predictions of such a model. Our synthesis points the way for this framework and demonstrates that a deeper understanding of pathogen community dynamics will emerge from approaches working at the interface of disease and community ecology. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Are snake populations in widespread decline?

PubMed Central

Reading, C. J.; Luiselli, L. M.; Akani, G. C.; Bonnet, X.; Amori, G.; Ballouard, J. M.; Filippi, E.; Naulleau, G.; Pearson, D.; Rugiero, L.

2010-01-01

Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root. PMID:20534600

Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink.

PubMed

Brienen, R J W; Phillips, O L; Feldpausch, T R; Gloor, E; Baker, T R; Lloyd, J; Lopez-Gonzalez, G; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A; Malhi, Y; Lewis, S L; Vásquez Martinez, R; Alexiades, M; Álvarez Dávila, E; Alvarez-Loayza, P; Andrade, A; Aragão, L E O C; Araujo-Murakami, A; Arets, E J M M; Arroyo, L; Aymard C, G A; Bánki, O S; Baraloto, C; Barroso, J; Bonal, D; Boot, R G A; Camargo, J L C; Castilho, C V; Chama, V; Chao, K J; Chave, J; Comiskey, J A; Cornejo Valverde, F; da Costa, L; de Oliveira, E A; Di Fiore, A; Erwin, T L; Fauset, S; Forsthofer, M; Galbraith, D R; Grahame, E S; Groot, N; Hérault, B; Higuchi, N; Honorio Coronado, E N; Keeling, H; Killeen, T J; Laurance, W F; Laurance, S; Licona, J; Magnussen, W E; Marimon, B S; Marimon-Junior, B H; Mendoza, C; Neill, D A; Nogueira, E M; Núñez, P; Pallqui Camacho, N C; Parada, A; Pardo-Molina, G; Peacock, J; Peña-Claros, M; Pickavance, G C; Pitman, N C A; Poorter, L; Prieto, A; Quesada, C A; Ramírez, F; Ramírez-Angulo, H; Restrepo, Z; Roopsind, A; Rudas, A; Salomão, R P; Schwarz, M; Silva, N; Silva-Espejo, J E; Silveira, M; Stropp, J; Talbot, J; ter Steege, H; Teran-Aguilar, J; Terborgh, J; Thomas-Caesar, R; Toledo, M; Torello-Raventos, M; Umetsu, R K; van der Heijden, G M F; van der Hout, P; Guimarães Vieira, I C; Vieira, S A; Vilanova, E; Vos, V A; Zagt, R J

2015-03-19

Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

The abundance of the Lyme disease pathogen Borrelia afzelii declines over time in the tick vector Ixodes ricinus.

PubMed

Jacquet, Maxime; Genné, Dolores; Belli, Alessandro; Maluenda, Elodie; Sarr, Anouk; Voordouw, Maarten J

2017-05-25

The population dynamics of vector-borne pathogens inside the arthropod vector can have important consequences for vector-to-host transmission. Tick-borne spirochete bacteria of the Borrelia burgdorferi (sensu lato) species complex cause Lyme borreliosis in humans and spend long periods of time (>12 months) in their Ixodes tick vectors. To date, few studies have investigated the dynamics of Borrelia spirochete populations in unfed Ixodes nymphal ticks. Larval ticks from our laboratory colony of I. ricinus were experimentally infected with B. afzelii, and killed at 1 month and 4 months after the larva-to-nymph moult. The spirochete load was also compared between engorged larval ticks and unfed nymphs (from the same cohort) and between unfed nymphs and unfed adult ticks (from the same cohort). The spirochete load of B. afzelii in each tick was estimated using qPCR. The mean spirochete load in the 1-month-old nymphs (~14,000 spirochetes) was seven times higher than the 4-month-old nymphs (~2000 spirochetes). Thus, the nymphal spirochete load declined by 80% over a period of 3 months. An engorged larval tick acquired ~100 spirochetes, and this population was 20 times larger in a young, unfed nymph. The spirochete load also appeared to decline in adult ticks. Comparison between wild and laboratory populations found that lab ticks were more susceptible to acquiring B. afzelii. The spirochete load of B. afzelii declines dramatically over time in domesticated I. ricinus nymphs under laboratory conditions. Future studies should investigate whether temporal declines in spirochete load occur in wild Ixodes ticks under natural conditions and whether these declines influence the tick-to-host transmission of Borrelia.

Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

PubMed

Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

2013-10-01

When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Chronic groundwater decline: A multi-decadal analysis of groundwater trends under extreme climate cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Brocque, Andrew F.; Kath, Jarrod; Reardon-Smith, Kathryn

2018-06-01

Chronic groundwater decline is a concern in many of the world's major agricultural areas. However, a general lack of accurate long-term in situ measurement of groundwater depth and analysis of trends prevents understanding of the dynamics of these systems at landscape scales. This is particularly worrying in the context of future climate uncertainties. This study examines long-term groundwater responses to climate variability in a major agricultural production landscape in southern Queensland, Australia. Based on records for 381 groundwater bores, we used a modified Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen's slope estimator to determine groundwater trends across a 26-year period (1989-2015) and in distinct wet and dry climatic phases. Comparison of trends between climatic phases showed groundwater level recovery during wet phases was insufficient to offset the decline in groundwater level from the previous dry phase. Across the entire 26-year sampling period, groundwater bore levels (all bores) showed an overall significant declining trend (p < 0.05) of an average 0.06 m year-1. Fifty-one bores (20%) exhibited significant declining groundwater levels (p < 0.05), 25 bores (10%) exhibited significant rising groundwater levels (p < 0.05), and 175 bores (70%) exhibited no significant change in groundwater levels (p > 0.05). Spatially, both declining and rising bores were highly clustered. We conclude that over 1989-2015 there is a significant net decline in groundwater levels driven by a smaller subset of highly responsive bores in high irrigation areas within the catchment. Despite a number of targeted policy interventions, chronic groundwater decline remains evident in the catchment. We argue that this is likely to continue and to occur more widely under potential climate change and that policy makers, groundwater users and managers need to engage in planning to ensure the sustainability of this vital resource.

Predator decline leads to decreased stability in a coastal fish community.

PubMed

Britten, Gregory L; Dowd, Michael; Minto, Cóilín; Ferretti, Francesco; Boero, Ferdinando; Lotze, Heike K

2014-12-01

Fisheries exploitation has caused widespread declines in marine predators. Theory predicts that predator depletion will destabilise lower trophic levels, making natural communities more vulnerable to environmental perturbations. However, empirical evidence has been limited. Using a community matrix model, we empirically assessed trends in the stability of a multispecies coastal fish community over the course of predator depletion. Three indices of community stability (resistance, resilience and reactivity) revealed significantly decreasing stability concurrent with declining predator abundance. The trophically downgraded community exhibited weaker top-down control, leading to predator-release processes in lower trophic levels and increased susceptibility to perturbation. At the community level, our results suggest that high predator abundance acts as a stabilising force to the naturally stochastic and highly autocorrelated dynamics in low trophic species. These findings have important implications for the conservation and management of predators in marine ecosystems and provide empirical support for the theory of predatory control. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The Dynamics of Son Preference, Technology Diffusion, and Fertility Decline Underlying Distorted Sex Ratios at Birth: A Simulation Approach.

PubMed

Kashyap, Ridhi; Villavicencio, Francisco

2016-10-01

We present a micro-founded simulation model that formalizes the "ready, willing, and able" framework, originally used to explain historical fertility decline, to the practice of prenatal sex selection. The model generates sex ratio at birth (SRB) distortions from the bottom up and attempts to quantify plausible levels, trends, and interactions of son preference, technology diffusion, and fertility decline that underpin SRB trajectories at the macro level. Calibrating our model for South Korea, we show how even as the proportion with a preference for sons was declining, SRB distortions emerged due to rapid diffusion of prenatal sex determination technology combined with small but growing propensities to abort at low birth parities. Simulations reveal that relatively low levels of son preference (about 20 % to 30 % wanting one son) can result in skewed SRB levels if technology diffuses early and steadily, and if fertility falls rapidly to encourage sex-selective abortion at low parities. Model sensitivity analysis highlights how the shape of sex ratio trajectories is particularly sensitive to the timing and speed of prenatal sex-determination technology diffusion. The maximum SRB levels reached in a population are influenced by how the readiness to abort rises as a function of the fertility decline.

Large Decadal Decline of the Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2011-01-01

The perennial ice area was drastically reduced to 38% of its climatological average in 2007 but recovered somewhat in 2008, 2009 and 2010 with the areas being 10%, 24%, and 11% higher than in 2007, respectively. However, the trends in the extent and area remain strongly negative at -12.2% and -13.5 %/decade, respectively. The thick component of the perennial ice, called multiyear ice, as detected by satellite data in the winters of 1979 to 2011 was studied and results reveal that the multiyear ice extent and area are declining at an even more rapid rate of -15.1% and -17.2 % per decade, respectively, with record low value in 2008 followed by higher values in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Such high rate in the decline of the thick component of the Arctic ice cover means a reduction in average ice thickness and an even more vulnerable perennial ice cover. The decline of the multiyear ice area from 2007 to 2008 was not as strong as that of the perennial ice area from 2006 to 2007 suggesting a strong role of second year ice melt in the latter. The sea ice cover is shown to be strongly correlated with surface temperature which is increasing at about three times global average in the Arctic but appears weakly correlated with the AO which controls the dynamics of the region. An 8 to 9-year cycle is apparent in the multiyear ice record which could explain in part the slight recovery in the last three years.

Ideal men: masculinity and decline in seventeenth-century Spain.

PubMed

Lehfeldt, Elizabeth A

2008-01-01

This article examines how the experience and critique of their country's decline led Spaniards to craft a distinct discourse of masculinity in the seventeenth century. As they self-consciously examined Spain's crisis and offered political and economic solutions, these same writers also offered a scathing critique of standards of masculinity. Using the figure of the ideal nobleman as a case study, the article examines how moralists, arbitristas, and hagiographers constructed a dynamic code of manhood linked to questions of productivity, male chastity, and military performance. Further, it argues that this discourse was ultimately nostalgic and failed to adapt itself to the circumstances of the seventeenth century.

Count data, detection probabilities, and the demography, dynamics, distribution, and decline of amphibians.

PubMed

Schmidt, Benedikt R

2003-08-01

The evidence for amphibian population declines is based on count data that were not adjusted for detection probabilities. Such data are not reliable even when collected using standard methods. The formula C = Np (where C is a count, N the true parameter value, and p is a detection probability) relates count data to demography, population size, or distributions. With unadjusted count data, one assumes a linear relationship between C and N and that p is constant. These assumptions are unlikely to be met in studies of amphibian populations. Amphibian population data should be based on methods that account for detection probabilities.

Workers who decline employment-related health insurance.

PubMed

Bernard, Didem M; Selden, Thomas M

2006-05-01

Families of workers who decline coverage represent a substantial share of the uninsured and publicly-insured population in the United States. We examined health status, access to health care, utilization, and expenditures among families that declined health insurance coverage offered by employers using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey for 2001 and 2002. We found differences in insurance status for adults and children among families with offers. We found that among low-income families with offers, children are less likely to have private insurance compared with adults. However, the majority of children who decline private insurance end up with public coverage, whereas most of adults who decline offers remain uninsured. Decliners are more likely to report poor health, yet they are also less likely to have high cost medical conditions. Families declining coverage have weaker preferences for insurance than families that take up. Although access to care is lower among the decliners who remain uninsured, decliners with public insurance have similar access to care as those with private insurance. Families turning down coverage are more likely to face high expenditure burdens as a percentage of income and more likely to have financial barriers to care. Families who decline coverage rely heavily on the safety net. Public sources and uncompensated care account for 72% of total expenditures among adults who decline coverage. Our results suggest that policy initiatives aimed at increasing take up among workers need to take into account the incentives workers face given the availability of care through public sources and uncompensated care.

The Role of Language Ability in Young Children's Cooperation during Play and Collaborative Interactions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vriens-van Hoogdalem, Anne-Greth; de Haan, Dorian M. P.; Boom, Jan

2016-01-01

Language and metacommunication are assumed to be important for accomplishing a high level of cooperation in social play. Research to date, however, does not address the relationship of language ability and metacommunication to the complexity of cooperation. This study investigated this relationship by observing 24 four- and five-year-old…

Declining survival of black brant from subarctic and arctic breeding areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leach, Alan G.; Ward, David H.; Sedinger, James S.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Boyd, W. Sean; Hupp, Jerry W.; Ritchie, Robert J.

2017-01-01

Since the mid 1990s, the number of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) nests on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska, USA, the historically predominant breeding area of brant, has declined steadily. This has caused researchers and managers to question if arctic breeding populations can compensate for the reduction in brant nests on the YKD. An important component of the assessment of brant population dynamics is having current estimates of first‐year and adult survival. We banded brant at 4 locations in Arctic Alaska and western Canada, and at 1 location in the subarctic, the Tutakoke River (TR) colony on the YKD, 1990–2015. We used joint live and dead mark‐recapture models to estimate first‐year and adult (≥1 yr old) survival of brant. We also used band recovery rates from a Brownie model to assess temporal trends in band recovery rates of adult brant. First‐year survival of brant hatched at TR declined from approximately 0.60 to <0.20 and, although first‐year survival generally was higher for goslings marked in the Arctic, their survival declined from approximately 0.70 in the early 1990s to ≤0.45 in the 2010s. Annual survival of adult females decreased from an average of 0.881 (95% CI = 0.877–0.885) to 0.822 (95% CI = 0.815–0.829) at TR and from 0.851 (95% CI = 0.843–0.860) to 0.821 (95% CI = 0.805–0.836) in the Arctic, from 1990 to 2014. Band recovery rates of adults generally were <1.25% until the last several years of study, when they reached ≤3.5%. Although the current harvest rates may be partially additive to natural mortality, we do not believe that harvest is the main influence on the declines in survival. The general decline in survival rates of brant breeding across a large geographic area may be influenced by a reduction in the quality of migration and wintering ground habitats. We suggest an analysis of seasonal survival of brant to test the hypothesis that declining habitat quality on

Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

PubMed

Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-After-Control-Impact Approach

PubMed Central

Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk – Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves. PMID:25028933

Ecophysiology meets conservation: understanding the role of disease in amphibian population declines

PubMed Central

Blaustein, Andrew R.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.; Johnson, Pieter T. J.; Hoverman, Jason T.; Belden, Lisa K.; Bradley, Paul W.; Xie, Gisselle Y.

2012-01-01

Infectious diseases are intimately associated with the dynamics of biodiversity. However, the role that infectious disease plays within ecological communities is complex. The complex effects of infectious disease at the scale of communities and ecosystems are driven by the interaction between host and pathogen. Whether or not a given host–pathogen interaction results in progression from infection to disease is largely dependent on the physiological characteristics of the host within the context of the external environment. Here, we highlight the importance of understanding the outcome of infection and disease in the context of host ecophysiology using amphibians as a model system. Amphibians are ideal for such a discussion because many of their populations are experiencing declines and extinctions, with disease as an important factor implicated in many declines and extinctions. Exposure to pathogens and the host's responses to infection can be influenced by many factors related to physiology such as host life history, immunology, endocrinology, resource acquisition, behaviour and changing climates. In our review, we discuss the relationship between disease and biodiversity. We highlight the dynamics of three amphibian host–pathogen systems that induce different effects on hosts and life stages and illustrate the complexity of amphibian–host–parasite systems. We then review links between environmental stress, endocrine–immune interactions, disease and climate change. PMID:22566676

Functional decline in Huntington's disease.

PubMed

Feigin, A; Kieburtz, K; Bordwell, K; Como, P; Steinberg, K; Sotack, J; Zimmerman, C; Hickey, C; Orme, C; Shoulson, I

1995-03-01

We prospectively evaluated 129 patients with manifest Huntington's disease (HD) to determine the rate of illness progression and the clinical features that correlate with functional decline. A single examiner evaluated each patient using the HD Functional Capacity Scale. Standardized motor performance was also assessed in 94 of the patients (73%) using the HD Rating Scale. Total Functional Capacity declined at a rate of 0.63 +/- 0.75 U per year. As functional capacity worsened, chorea lessened, and dystonia intensified. There was no correlation between rate of functional decline and age at onset of HD, body weight, gender of affected parent, or history of neuroleptic use.

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjorndal, Karen A.; Bolten, Alan B.; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S.; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A.G.; Santos, Armando J.B.; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C.; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E.; van Dam, Robert P.; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Crowder, Andrew; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A.; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M.; Foley, Allen M.; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R.; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A.; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M.; Boulon, Ralf H.; Collazo, Jaime; Wershoven, Robert; Hernández, Vicente Guzmán; Stringell, Thomas B.; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B.; Broderick, Annette C.; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta C.; Claydon, John A.B.; Metz, Tasha L.; Gordon, Amanda L.; Landry, Andre M.; Shaver, Donna J.; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J.; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Bethel, Thomas L.; Kenyon, Lory

2017-01-01

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles – hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta – exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – the strongest on record – combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -0.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = 0.74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic.

PubMed

Bjorndal, Karen A; Bolten, Alan B; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A G; Santos, Armando J B; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B; Meylan, Peter A; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E; van Dam, Robert P; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M; Cherkiss, Michael S; Crowder, Andrew G; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M; Foley, Allen M; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M; Boulon, Ralf H; Collazo, Jaime A; Wershoven, Robert; Guzmán Hernández, Vicente; Stringell, Thomas B; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B; Broderick, Annette C; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta; Claydon, John A B; Metz, Tasha L; Gordon, Amanda L; Landry, Andre M; Shaver, Donna J; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J; Campbell, Cathi L; Lagueux, Cynthia J; Bethel, Thomas L; Kenyon, Lory

2017-11-01

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles-hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta-exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-the strongest on record-combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the

Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America

PubMed Central

Malick, Michael J.; Cox, Sean P.

2016-01-01

Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC) with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65%) did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks) and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks). We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time. PMID:26760510

Fronto-Parietal Subnetworks Flexibility Compensates For Cognitive Decline Due To Mental Fatigue.

PubMed

Taya, Fumihiko; Dimitriadis, Stavros I; Dragomir, Andrei; Lim, Julian; Sun, Yu; Wong, Kian Foong; Thakor, Nitish V; Bezerianos, Anastasios

2018-04-24

Fronto-parietal subnetworks were revealed to compensate for cognitive decline due to mental fatigue by community structure analysis. Here, we investigate changes in topology of subnetworks of resting-state fMRI networks due to mental fatigue induced by prolonged performance of a cognitively demanding task, and their associations with cognitive decline. As it is well established that brain networks have modular organization, community structure analyses can provide valuable information about mesoscale network organization and serve as a bridge between standard fMRI approaches and brain connectomics that quantify the topology of whole brain networks. We developed inter- and intramodule network metrics to quantify topological characteristics of subnetworks, based on our hypothesis that mental fatigue would impact on functional relationships of subnetworks. Functional networks were constructed with wavelet correlation and a data-driven thresholding scheme based on orthogonal minimum spanning trees, which allowed detection of communities with weak connections. A change from pre- to posttask runs was found for the intermodule density between the frontal and the temporal subnetworks. Seven inter- or intramodule network metrics, mostly at the frontal or the parietal subnetworks, showed significant predictive power of individual cognitive decline, while the network metrics for the whole network were less effective in the predictions. Our results suggest that the control-type fronto-parietal networks have a flexible topological architecture to compensate for declining cognitive ability due to mental fatigue. This community structure analysis provides valuable insight into connectivity dynamics under different cognitive states including mental fatigue. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Age-related decline in ovarian follicle stocks differ between chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and humans.

PubMed

Cloutier, Christina T; Coxworth, James E; Hawkes, Kristen

2015-02-01

Similarity in oldest parturitions in humans and great apes suggests that we maintain ancestral rates of ovarian aging. Consistent with that hypothesis, previous counts of primordial follicles in postmortem ovarian sections from chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) showed follicle stock decline at the same rate that human stocks decline across the same ages. Here, we correct that finding with a chimpanzee sample more than three times larger than the previous one, which also allows comparison into older ages. Analyses show depletion rates similar until about age 35, but after 35, the human counts continue to fall with age, while the change is much less steep in chimpanzees. This difference implicates likely effects on ovarian dynamics from other physiological systems that are senescing at different rates, and, potentially, different perimenopausal experience for chimpanzees and humans.

Additional pest surveyed: hickory decline

Treesearch

Jennifer Juzwik; Ji-Hyun Park

2011-01-01

A five year investigation of the cause of rapid crown decline and mortality of bitternut hickory was concluded in September 2011. Results of a series of related studies found that multiple cankers and xylem (the water conducting tissue) dysfunction caused by Ceratocystis smalleyi are correlated with rapid crown decline typical of a limited vascular...

Consequences of declining snow accumulation for water balance of mid-latitude dry regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

2012-01-01

Widespread documentation of positive winter temperature anomalies, declining snowpack and earlier snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere have raised concerns about the consequences for regional water resources as well as wildfire. A topic that has not been addressed with respect to declining snowpack is effects on ecosystem water balance. Changes in water balance dynamics will be particularly pronounced at low elevations of mid-latitude dry regions because these areas will be the first to be affected by declining snow as a result of rising temperatures. As a model system, we used simulation experiments to investigate big sagebrush ecosystems that dominate a large fraction of the semiarid western United States. Our results suggest that effects on future ecosystem water balance will increase along a climatic gradient from dry, warm and snow-poor to wet, cold and snow-rich. Beyond a threshold within this climatic gradient, predicted consequences for vegetation switched from no change to increasing transpiration. Responses were sensitive to uncertainties in climatic prediction; particularly, a shift of precipitation to the colder season could reduce impacts of a warmer and snow-poorer future, depending on the degree to which ecosystem phenology tracks precipitation changes. Our results suggest that big sagebrush and other similar semiarid ecosystems could decrease in viability or disappear in dry to medium areas and likely increase only in the snow-richest areas, i.e. higher elevations and higher latitudes. Unlike cold locations at high elevations or in the arctic, ecosystems at low elevations respond in a different and complex way to future conditions because of opposing effects of increasing water-limitation and a longer snow-free season. Outcomes of such nonlinear interactions for future ecosystems will likely include changes in plant composition and productivity, dynamics of water balance, and availability of water resources.

Local Dynamic Stability Associated with Load Carrying

PubMed Central

Lockhart, Thurmon E

2013-01-01

Objectives Load carrying tasks are recognized as one of the primary occupational factors leading to slip and fall injuries. Nevertheless, the mechanisms associated with load carrying and walking stability remain illusive. The objective of the current study was to apply local dynamic stability measure in walking while carrying a load, and to investigate the possible adaptive gait stability changes. Methods Current study involved 25 young adults in a biomechanics research laboratory. One tri-axial accelerometer was used to measure three-dimensional low back acceleration during continuous treadmill walking. Local dynamic stability was quantified by the maximum Lyapunov exponent (maxLE) from a nonlinear dynamics approach. Results Long term maxLE was found to be significant higher under load condition than no-load condition in all three reference axes, indicating the declined local dynamic stability associated with load carrying. Conclusion Current study confirmed the sensitivity of local dynamic stability measure in load carrying situation. It was concluded that load carrying tasks were associated with declined local dynamic stability, which may result in increased risk of fall accident. This finding has implications in preventing fall accidents associated with occupational load carrying. PMID:23515183

Mathematical modelling of decline in follicle pool during female reproductive ageing.

PubMed

Thilagam, Alagu

2016-03-01

The factors which govern the subtle links between follicle loss and mammalian female reproductive ageing remain unclear despite extensive studies undertaken to understand the critical physiological and biochemical mechanisms that underly the accelerated decline in follicle numbers in women older than 37 years. It is not certain whether there is a sole control by the ovary or whether other factors which affect ageing also intersect with the ovarian effect. There is convincing experimental evidence for an interplay of several processes that seem to influence the follicle loss-female reproductive ageing links, with specific hormones (follicle-stimulating hormone, anti-Müllerian hormone, dehydroepiandrosterone) noted to play important roles in follicular dynamics and ovarian ageing. In this work, we examine the subtle links between the rate of follicular decline with ageing and the role of hormones via a series of non-autonomous equations. Simulation results based on the time evolution of the number of ovarian follicles and biochemical changes in the ovarian environment influenced by hormone levels is compared with empirical data based on follicle loss-reproductive ageing correlation studies. © Crown copyright 2015.

Dynamic patterns of overexploitation in fisheries.

PubMed

Perissi, Ilaria; Bardi, Ugo; El Asmar, Toufic; Lavacchi, Alessandro

2017-09-10

Understanding overfishing and regulating fishing quotas is a major global challenge for the 21st Century both in terms of providing food for humankind and to preserve the oceans' ecosystems. However, fishing is a complex economic activity, affected not just by overfishing but also by such factors as pollution, technology, financial factors and more. For this reason, it is often difficult to state with complete certainty that overfishing is the cause of the decline of a fishery. In this study, we developed a simple dynamic model specifically designed to isolate and to study the role of depletion on production. The model is based on the well-known Lotka-Volterra model, or Prey-Predator mechanism, assuming that the fish stock and the fishing industry are coupled variables that dynamically affect each other. In the model, the fishing industry acts as the "predator" and the fish stock as the "prey". If the model can fit historical data, in particular relative to the productive decline of specific fisheries, then we have a strong indication that the decline of the fish stock is driving the decline of the fishery production. The model doesn't pretend to be a general description of the fishing industry in all its varied forms; however, the data reported here show that the model can describe several historical cases of fisheries whose production decreased and collapsed, indicating that the overexploitation of the fish stocks is an important factor in the decline of fisheries.

Illegitimate fertility decline in England, 1851-1911.

PubMed

Schellekens, J

1995-01-01

This study attempts to determine the extent to which several hypotheses are able to account for the illegitimate fertility decline in England in the second half of the nineteenth century. The results of a pooled time-series analysis are consistent with the hypothesis that a rise in working-class prosperity accounts for much of the decline. Additional reasons for the decline, which cannot be ruled out with the data used in the analysis, include the diffusion of knowledge and the acceptability of contraceptive methods and a decline in agricultural employment.

Declining Enrollments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wakefield, Howard E.; Donnelly, Richard A.

The five sections in this loose-leaf binder are intended to provide Wisconsin school board members with information necessary for decision-making on the problem of declining enrollment. Section 1 contains information about the extent of the problem and summarizes recent trends in population and school enrollments in the nation and the state.…

Chinese culture and fertility decline.

PubMed

Wu, C; Jia, S

1992-01-01

Coale has suggested that cultural factors exert a significant influence on fertility reduction; countries in the "Chinese cultural circle" would be the first to show fertility decline. In China, the view was that traditional Chinese culture contributed to increased population. This paper examines the nature of the relationship between Chinese culture and fertility. Attention was directed to a comparison of fertility rates of developing countries with strong Chinese cultural influence and of fertility within different regions of China. Discussion was followed by an explanation of the theoretical impact of Chinese culture on fertility and direct and indirect beliefs and practices that might either enhance or hinder fertility decline. Emigration to neighboring countries occurred after the Qing dynasty. Fertility after the 1950s declined markedly in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China: all countries within the Chinese cultural circle. Other countries within the Chinese circle which have higher fertility, yet lower fertility than other non-Chinese cultural countries, are Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Within China, regions with similar fertility patterns are identified as coastal regions, central plains, and mountainous and plateau regions. The Han ethnic group has lower fertility than that of ethnic minorities; regions with large Han populations have lower fertility. Overseas Chinese in East Asian countries also tend to have lower fertility than their host populations. Chinese culture consisted of the assimilation of other cultures over 5000 years. Fertility decline was dependent on the population's desire to limit reproduction, favorable social mechanisms, and availability of contraception: all factors related to economic development. Chinese culture affects fertility reduction by affecting reproductive views and social mechanisms directly, and indirectly through economics. Confucianism emphasizes collectivism, self

Drought as a driver of declining boreal forest growth: Integrating forest inventory measurements with models to gain insight into underlying mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trugman, A. T.; Medvigy, D.; Anderegg, W.; Caspersen, J.; Zeng, H.; Pacala, S. W.

2016-12-01

Boreal forests contain over 30% of Earth's terrestrial carbon and are an important component of the land carbon sink. However, the future ability of the boreal forest to maintain a net carbon sink is uncertain and depends on potentially compensating interactions of CO2 fertilization, warmer temperatures, and hotter drought conditions. Observational studies have attributed drought as a major driver of recent declines in growth and increases in mortality in many parts of the North American boreal forest. Yet, most vegetation models have a simplistic representation of vegetation water stress and fail to capture drought-associated growth and mortality trends, impacting our ability to accurately forecast the effects of climate change on the boreal forest. Here, we show additional evidence for widespread declines in boreal tree growth and increasing insect-related mortality in aspen trees based on a mixed model analysis of the Cooperative Alaska Forest Inventory. Our findings indicate that the growth decline is controlled by high midsummer potential evapotranspiration that overpowers any CO2 fertilization signal. We also observe a possible shift in the distribution of angiosperm and gymnosperm, a biological transition that could impact long-term local carbon dynamics. Using insight gained from our mixed model analysis, we perform a regional-scale model evaluation using the boreal forest version of Ecosystem Demography model 2 that includes a dynamic soil organic layer, 7 boreal-specific plant functional types, and a fully mechanistic plant hydraulic scheme. We then use both the Alaskan and Canadian Forest Inventories to constrain our hypotheses and assess whether drought related growth declines can be better attributed to tree drought response from (1) carbon starvation, (2) permanent damage of hydraulic machinery, or (3) delayed recovery of hydraulic machinery. Under each of these scenarios we forecast how drought potentially impacts decadal-scale boreal carbon dynamics.

A call to action for nurses: declining enrollment and the nursing shortage.

PubMed

Albaugh, J A

2001-10-01

Once again, nursing and health care face a crisis related to the continued decline in nursing school enrollment and the nursing shortage. This particular shortage seems to be especially problematic because of the increased number of aging baby boomers and the dwindling professional nurse pool. Nurses must work together to increase understanding and awareness of the opportunities in the profession and to resolve this crisis. There are specific actions nurses can take to improve the perception of nursing and renew interest in a dynamic field that is so crucial to society.

Iron-mediated soil carbon response to water-table decline in an alpine wetland

PubMed Central

Wang, Yiyun; Wang, Hao; He, Jin-Sheng; Feng, Xiaojuan

2017-01-01

The tremendous reservoir of soil organic carbon (SOC) in wetlands is being threatened by water-table decline (WTD) globally. However, the SOC response to WTD remains highly uncertain. Here we examine the under-investigated role of iron (Fe) in mediating soil enzyme activity and lignin stabilization in a mesocosm WTD experiment in an alpine wetland. In contrast to the classic ‘enzyme latch’ theory, phenol oxidative activity is mainly controlled by ferrous iron [Fe(II)] and declines with WTD, leading to an accumulation of dissolvable aromatics and a reduced activity of hydrolytic enzyme. Furthermore, using dithionite to remove Fe oxides, we observe a significant increase of Fe-protected lignin phenols in the air-exposed soils. Fe oxidation hence acts as an ‘iron gate’ against the ‘enzyme latch’ in regulating wetland SOC dynamics under oxygen exposure. This newly recognized mechanism may be key to predicting wetland soil carbon storage with intensified WTD in a changing climate. PMID:28649988

Iron-mediated soil carbon response to water-table decline in an alpine wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yiyun; Wang, Hao; He, Jin-Sheng; Feng, Xiaojuan

2017-06-01

The tremendous reservoir of soil organic carbon (SOC) in wetlands is being threatened by water-table decline (WTD) globally. However, the SOC response to WTD remains highly uncertain. Here we examine the under-investigated role of iron (Fe) in mediating soil enzyme activity and lignin stabilization in a mesocosm WTD experiment in an alpine wetland. In contrast to the classic `enzyme latch' theory, phenol oxidative activity is mainly controlled by ferrous iron [Fe(II)] and declines with WTD, leading to an accumulation of dissolvable aromatics and a reduced activity of hydrolytic enzyme. Furthermore, using dithionite to remove Fe oxides, we observe a significant increase of Fe-protected lignin phenols in the air-exposed soils. Fe oxidation hence acts as an `iron gate' against the `enzyme latch' in regulating wetland SOC dynamics under oxygen exposure. This newly recognized mechanism may be key to predicting wetland soil carbon storage with intensified WTD in a changing climate.

Decline and conservation of bumble bees.

PubMed

Goulson, D; Lye, G C; Darvill, B

2008-01-01

Declines in bumble bee species in the past 60 years are well documented in Europe, where they are driven primarily by habitat loss and declines in floral abundance and diversity resulting from agricultural intensification. Impacts of habitat degradation and fragmentation are likely to be compounded by the social nature of bumble bees and their largely monogamous breeding system, which renders their effective population size low. Hence, populations are susceptible to stochastic extinction events and inbreeding. In North America, catastrophic declines of some bumble bee species since the 1990s are probably attributable to the accidental introduction of a nonnative parasite from Europe, a result of global trade in domesticated bumble bee colonies used for pollination of greenhouse crops. Given the importance of bumble bees as pollinators of crops and wildflowers, steps must be taken to prevent further declines. Suggested measures include tight regulation of commercial bumble bee use and targeted use of environmentally comparable schemes to enhance floristic diversity in agricultural landscapes.

Understanding Amphibian Declines Through Geographic Approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallant, Alisa

2006-01-01

Growing concern over worldwide amphibian declines warrants serious examination. Amphibians are important to the proper functioning of ecosystems and provide many direct benefits to humans in the form of pest and disease control, pharmaceutical compounds, and even food. Amphibians have permeable skin and rely on both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems during different seasons and stages of their lives. Their association with these ecosystems renders them likely to serve as sensitive indicators of environmental change. While much research on amphibian declines has centered on mysterious causes, or on causes that directly affect humans (global warming, chemical pollution, ultraviolet-B radiation), most declines are the result of habitat loss and habitat alteration. Improving our ability to characterize, model, and monitor the interactions between environmental variables and amphibian habitats is key to addressing amphibian conservation. In 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) to address issues surrounding amphibian declines.

Factors Influencing the Decline in Stroke Mortality

PubMed Central

Lackland, Daniel T.; Roccella, Edward J.; Deutsch, Anne; Fornage, Myriam; George, Mary G.; Howard, George; Kissela, Brett; Kittner, Steven J.; Lichtman, Judith H.; Lisabeth, Lynda; Schwamm, Lee H.; Smith, Eric E.; Towfighi, Amytis

2017-01-01

Background and Purpose Stroke mortality has been declining since the early twentieth century. The reasons for this are not completely understood, although the decline is welcome. As a result of recent striking and more accelerated decreases in stroke mortality, stroke has fallen from the third to the fourth leading cause of death in the United States. This has prompted a detailed assessment of the factors associated with this decline. This review considers the evidence of various contributors to the decline in stroke risk and mortality and can be used in the design of future interventions regarding this major public health burden. Methods Writing group members were nominated by the committee chair and co-chair on the basis of their previous work in relevant topic areas and were approved by the American Heart Association (AHA) Stroke Council’s Scientific Statement Oversight Committee and the AHA’s Manuscript Oversight Committee. The writers used systematic literature reviews, references to published clinical and epidemiology studies, morbidity and mortality reports, clinical and public health guidelines, authoritative statements, personal files, and expert opinion to summarize evidence and indicate gaps in current knowledge. All members of the writing group had the opportunity to comment and approved the final version of this document. The document underwent extensive AHA internal peer review, Stroke Council Leadership review and Scientific Statements Oversight Committee review before consideration and approval by the AHA Science Advisory and Coordinating Committee. Results The decline in stroke mortality over the past decades represents a major improvement in population health and is observed for both genders, and all race and age groups. In addition to the overall impact on fewer lives lost to stroke, the major decline in stroke mortality seen among individuals less than 65 years of age represents a reduction on years of potential life lost. The decline in

31 CFR 240.7 - Declination protest.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... STATES TREASURY General Provisions § 240.7 Declination protest. (a) Who may protest. Only a presenting... presented for payment and a Federal Reserve Bank has reversed its provisional credit to the presenting bank, the presenting bank may file a protest challenging the factual basis for such declination. Protests...

Advances in development reverse fertility declines.

PubMed

Myrskylä, Mikko; Kohler, Hans-Peter; Billari, Francesco C

2009-08-06

During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman). In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development-fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result of continued economic and social development has the potential to slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the social and economic problems that have been associated with the emergence and persistence of very low fertility.

Autobiographical memory decline in Alzheimer’s Disease

PubMed Central

EL HAJ, Mohamad; Antoine, Pascal; Nandrino, Jean-Louis; Kapogiannis, Dimitrios

2016-01-01

Autobiographical memory, or memory for personal experiences, allows individuals to define themselves and construct a meaningful life story. Decline of this ability, as observed in Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), results in an impaired sense of self and identity. We present a critical review of theories and findings regarding cognitive and neuroanatomical underpinnings of autobiographical memory and its decline in AD and highlight studies on its clinical rehabilitation. We propose that autobiographical recall in AD is mainly characterized by loss of associated episodic information, which leads to de-contextualisation of autobiographical memories and a shift from reliving past events to a general sense of familiarity. This decline refers to retrograde, but also anterograde amnesia that affects newly acquired memories besides remote ones. One consequence of autobiographical memory decline in AD is decreased access to memories that shape self-consciousness, self-knowledge, and self-images, leading to a diminished sense of self and identity. The link between autobiographical decline and compromised sense of self in AD can also manifest itself as low correspondence and coherence between past memories and current goals and beliefs. By linking cognitive, neuroanatomical, and clinical aspects of autobiographical decline in AD, our review provides a theoretical foundation, which may lead to better rehabilitation strategies. PMID:26876367

Falling teen pregnancy, birthrates: what's behind the declines?

PubMed

Donovan, P

1998-10-01

About half of the almost 1 million US teenagers who become pregnant each year carry their pregnancies to term and give birth. However, after years of steady increases, teen birthrates in the US are lower and pregnancy rates have fallen to their lowest level in 20 years. Teenage sexual activity is also declining. Over the period 1991-96, the birthrate in the US among teens declined from the 20-year high of 62.1 births/1000 females aged 15-19 to 54.4/1000. This 12% decline comes after a 24% increase in the birthrate between 1986 and 1991. Declines in the teen birthrate were observed for the nation overall, as well as in each state, ranging from 6% in Alabama to 29% in Alaska. The teen birthrate among Blacks declined 21% to reach a record low of 91.4/1000 in 1996, while the rate for Hispanic teens barely changed during 1991-95, but eventually declined 5% during 1995-96 to 101.8/1000. The birthrate among non-Hispanic White teens declined 9% during the period to 48.1/1000, while the birthrate for teens aged 15-17 fell 13% during the period and 9% for 18-19 year olds. Pregnancy rates among women aged 15-19 years declined 14% between 1990 and 1995, to 101.1/1000, the lowest level since the mid-1970s. Although researchers are unsure why teen pregnancy and birthrates have fallen, recent survey data suggest that the declines have occurred because both fewer teens are having sex and more sexually active adolescents are using contraception.

Decline in semicircular canal and otolith function with age

PubMed Central

Agrawal, Yuri; Zuniga, M. Geraldine; Davalos-Bichara, Marcela; Schubert, Michael C.; Walston, Jeremy D.; Hughes, Jennifer; Carey, John P.

2012-01-01

Objective To characterize the physiologic nature of the vestibular dysfunction that occurs with the normative aging process. Study design Cross-sectional study. Setting Tertiary care academic medical center. Patients Fifty individuals age 70 and above. Interventions Head thrust dynamic visual acuity testing (htDVA) and cervical and ocular vestibular-evoked myogenic potential (VEMP) testing. Main Outcome Measures Semicircular canal function measured by htDVA in each of the three semicircular canal planes, and saccular and utricular function measured by cVEMP and oVEMP testing, respectively. Results We observed significant declines in semicircular canal function in each of the canal planes as well as otolith function associated with aging. We found that individuals with impaired horizontal and superior semicircular canal function were likely to also have concomitant deficits in utricular but not saccular function. Overall, we noted that the prevalence of semicircular canal dysfunction was highest followed by saccular then utricular impairment, although we did observe individuals with isolated otolith deficits. Conclusions These data suggest an overall decline in semicircular canal as well as otolith function associated with aging, although the magnitude of impairment was greater for the semicircular canals than the otoliths in this elderly population. A better understanding of the specific vestibular deficits that occur with aging can inform the development of rational screening, vestibular rehabilitation and fall risk reduction strategies in older individuals. PMID:22699991

Hyperstability masks declines in bumphead parrotfish ( Bolbometopon muricatum) populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, Richard J.; Almany, Glenn R.; Stevens, Don; Bode, Michael; Pita, John; Peterson, Nate A.; Choat, J. Howard

2016-09-01

Bolbometopon muricatum, the largest species of parrotfish, is a functionally important species that is characterised by the formation of aggregations for foraging, reproductive, and sleeping behaviours. Aggregations are restricted to shallow reef habitats, the locations of which are often known to local fishers. Bolbometopon muricatum fisheries are therefore vulnerable to overfishing and are likely to exhibit hyperstability, the maintenance of high catch per unit effort (CPUE) while population abundance declines. In this study, we provide a clear demonstration of hyperstable dynamics in a commercial B. muricatum fishery in Isabel Province, Solomon Islands. Initially, we used participatory mapping to demarcate the Kia fishing grounds into nine zones that had experienced different historic levels of fishing pressure. We then conducted comprehensive underwater visual census (UVC) and CPUE surveys across these zones over a 21-month period in 2012-2013. The individual sites for replicate UVC surveys were selected using a generalised random tessellation stratified variable probability design, while CPUE surveys involved trained provincial fisheries officers and local spearfishers. A comparison of fishery-independent abundance data and fishery-dependent CPUE data indicate extreme hyperstability, with CPUE maintained as B. muricatum abundance declines towards zero. Hyperstability may explain the sudden collapses of many B. muricatum spear fisheries across the Pacific and highlights the limitations of using data-poor fisheries assessment methods to evaluate the status of commercially valuable coral reef fishes that form predicable aggregations.

Temporal assemblage turnovers of intertidal foraminiferal communities from tropical (SE Caribbean) and temperate (NE England and SW Spain) regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costelloe, Ashleigh; Wilson, Brent; Horton, Benjamin P.; Hayek, Lee-Ann C.

2018-05-01

This is the first quantitative study of temporal assemblage turnovers of the relationships between intertidal foraminifera. Time series datasets collected from tropical Caroni Swamp and Claxton Bay (Trinidad, SE Caribbean) and temperate Cowpen Marsh (NE England, U.K.) and Bay of Cadiz (SW Spain) were used. The assemblage turnover index (ATI) examined species interrelationships through comparisons of monthly or biweekly species proportional abundances over one or two years. Species contributing to major assemblage turnovers (ATI > x + σ) were identified using the conditioned on-boundary index (CoBI). Foraminiferal species are heterogeneously distributed within the sediment; multiple sample stations at a study location cumulatively represent the foraminiferal metacommunity and clusters represent foraminiferal assemblages. The ATI and CoBI were applied to the proportional abundances of live specimens recorded for the metacommunity and assemblages at each location. At Caroni Swamp and Claxton Bay, major assemblage turnovers were driven by the most abundant species and the majority coincided with seasonal change or the arrival of the seasonal Orinoco plume in the Gulf of Paria. Seasonal turnovers of the foraminiferal metacommunities at temperate Cowpen Marsh and Bay of Cádiz occurred during the summer and winter. Major assemblage turnovers in the upper Cowpen Marsh occurred in the summer, and the lower marsh in the winter. Foraminiferans are useful bioindicators for monitoring the health of coastal environments. Understanding foraminiferal population dynamics will allow cyclical changes to be differentiated from abrupt and persistent changes, which are related to anthropogenic disturbances or long-term climate change. The ATI and CoBI are useful indices for quantitatively exploring relationships of foraminiferal populations over time.

Birth of the cool: a two-centuries decline in emotional expression in Anglophone fiction.

PubMed

Morin, Olivier; Acerbi, Alberto

2017-12-01

The presence of emotional words and content in stories has been shown to enhance a story's memorability, and its cultural success. Yet, recent cultural trends run in the opposite direction. Using the Google Books corpus, coupled with two metadata-rich corpora of Anglophone fiction books, we show a decrease in emotionality in English-speaking literature starting plausibly in the nineteenth century. We show that this decrease cannot be explained by changes unrelated to emotionality (such as demographic dynamics concerning age or gender balance, changes in vocabulary richness, or changes in the prevalence of literary genres), and that, in our three corpora, the decrease is driven almost entirely by a decline in the proportion of positive emotion-related words, while the frequency of negative emotion-related words shows little if any decline. Consistently with previous studies, we also find a link between ageing and negative emotionality at the individual level.

Has Thailand's fertility decline stalled?

PubMed

Knodel, J; Chayovan, N; Frisen, C

1988-09-01

Thailand is 1 of the third world countries in which a very substantial fertility decline has occurred during the last 2 decades. However, there has been some recent concern, based on fertility rates derived from 3 national contraceptive prevalence surveys conducted in 1978/1979, 1981, and 1984, that the fertility decline may have lost momentum at a level well above replacement fertility. New evidence now available from a more recent national survey which permits calculation of retrospective fertility trends, in combination with those from registration data, clearly contradicts the suggestion of a fall in the fertility decline. Moreover, because expected family size remains low among women currently starting their reproductive careers and evidence shows that the preferred number of children has fallen more or less steadily, low fertility may be expected to be a feature of the Thai population for some time to come.

Coral decline threatens fish biodiversity in marine reserves.

PubMed

Jones, Geoffrey P; McCormick, Mark I; Srinivasan, Maya; Eagle, Janelle V

2004-05-25

The worldwide decline in coral cover has serious implications for the health of coral reefs. But what is the future of reef fish assemblages? Marine reserves can protect fish from exploitation, but do they protect fish biodiversity in degrading environments? The answer appears to be no, as indicated by our 8-year study in Papua New Guinea. A devastating decline in coral cover caused a parallel decline in fish biodiversity, both in marine reserves and in areas open to fishing. Over 75% of reef fish species declined in abundance, and 50% declined to less than half of their original numbers. The greater the dependence species have on living coral as juvenile recruitment sites, the greater the observed decline in abundance. Several rare coral-specialists became locally extinct. We suggest that fish biodiversity is threatened wherever permanent reef degradation occurs and warn that marine reserves will not always be sufficient to ensure their survival.

Physical activity and motor decline in older persons.

PubMed

Buchman, A S; Boyle, P A; Wilson, R S; Bienias, Julia L; Bennett, D A

2007-03-01

We tested the hypothesis that physical activity modifies the course of age-related motor decline. More than 850 older participants of the Rush Memory and Aging Project underwent baseline assessment of physical activity and annual motor testing for up to 8 years. Nine strength measures and nine motor performance measures were summarized into composite measures of motor function. In generalized estimating equation models, global motor function declined during follow-up (estimate, -0.072; SE, 0.008; P < 0.001). Each additional hour of physical activity at baseline was associated with about a 5% decrease in the rate of global motor function decline (estimate, 0.004; SE, 0.001; P = 0.007). Secondary analyses suggested that the association of physical activity with motor decline was mostly due to the effect of physical activity on the rate of motor performance decline. Thus, higher levels of physical activity are associated with a slower rate of motor decline in older persons.

Effects of whole-body vibration applied to lower extremity muscles during decline bench press exercise.

PubMed

García-Gutiérrez, M T; Hazell, T J; Marín, P J

2016-09-07

To evaluate the effects of whole-body vibration (WBV) on skeletal muscle activity and power performance of the upper body during decline bench press exercise at different loads. Forty-seven healthy young and active male students volunteered. Each performed dynamic decline bench press repetitions with and without WBV (50 Hz, 2.2 mm) applied through a hamstring bridge exercise at three different loads of their 1-repetition maximum (1RM): 30%, 50%, and 70% 1RM. Muscle activity of the triceps brachii (TB), biceps brachii (BB), pectoralis major (PM), and biceps femoris (BF) was measured with surface electromyography electrodes and kinetic parameters of the repetitions were measured with a rotary encoder. WBV increased peak power (PP) output during the 70% 1RM condition (p<0.01). Muscle activity was increased with WBV in the TB and BF muscles at all loads (p<0.05). There were no effects of WBV on BB or PM muscles. WBV applied through a hamstring bridge exercise increases TB muscle activity during a decline bench press and this augmentation contributes to an increased peak power at higher loads and increased peak acceleration at lower loads.

26 CFR 1.167(b)-2 - Declining balance method.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Declining balance method. 1.167(b)-2 Section 1... Declining balance method. (a) Application of method. Under the declining balance method a uniform rate is... declining balance rate may be determined without resort to formula. Such rate determined under section 167(b...

26 CFR 1.167(b)-2 - Declining balance method.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Declining balance method. 1.167(b)-2 Section 1... Declining balance method. (a) Application of method. Under the declining balance method a uniform rate is... declining balance rate may be determined without resort to formula. Such rate determined under section 167(b...

Demography of Symbiotic Nitrogen-Fixing Trees Explains Their Rarity and Successional Decline in Temperate Forests in the United States.

PubMed

Liao, Wenying; Menge, Duncan N L

2016-01-01

Symbiotic nitrogen (N) fixation is the major N input to many ecosystems. Although temperate forests are commonly N limited, symbiotic N-fixing trees ("N fixers") are rare and decline in abundance as succession proceeds-a challenging paradox that remains unexplained. Understanding demographic processes that underlie N fixers' rarity and successional decline would provide a proximate answer to the paradox. Do N fixers grow slower, die more frequently, or recruit less in temperate forests? We quantified demographic rates of N-fixing and non-fixing trees across succession using U.S. forest inventory data. We used an individual-based model to evaluate the relative contribution of each demographic process to community dynamics. Compared to non-fixers, N fixers had lower growth rates, higher mortality rates, and lower recruitment rates throughout succession. The mortality effect contributed more than the growth effect to N fixers' successional decline. Canopy and understory N fixers experienced these demographic disadvantages, indicating that factors in addition to light limitation likely contribute to N fixers' successional decline. We show that the rarity and successional decline of N-fixing trees in temperate forests is due more to their survival disadvantage than their growth disadvantage, and a recruitment disadvantage might also play a large role.

Demography of Symbiotic Nitrogen-Fixing Trees Explains Their Rarity and Successional Decline in Temperate Forests in the United States

PubMed Central

Liao, Wenying; Menge, Duncan N. L.

2016-01-01

Symbiotic nitrogen (N) fixation is the major N input to many ecosystems. Although temperate forests are commonly N limited, symbiotic N-fixing trees (“N fixers”) are rare and decline in abundance as succession proceeds–a challenging paradox that remains unexplained. Understanding demographic processes that underlie N fixers’ rarity and successional decline would provide a proximate answer to the paradox. Do N fixers grow slower, die more frequently, or recruit less in temperate forests? We quantified demographic rates of N-fixing and non-fixing trees across succession using U.S. forest inventory data. We used an individual-based model to evaluate the relative contribution of each demographic process to community dynamics. Compared to non-fixers, N fixers had lower growth rates, higher mortality rates, and lower recruitment rates throughout succession. The mortality effect contributed more than the growth effect to N fixers’ successional decline. Canopy and understory N fixers experienced these demographic disadvantages, indicating that factors in addition to light limitation likely contribute to N fixers’ successional decline. We show that the rarity and successional decline of N-fixing trees in temperate forests is due more to their survival disadvantage than their growth disadvantage, and a recruitment disadvantage might also play a large role. PMID:27780268

Fast but fleeting: adaptive motor learning processes associated with aging and cognitive decline.

PubMed

Trewartha, Kevin M; Garcia, Angeles; Wolpert, Daniel M; Flanagan, J Randall

2014-10-01

Motor learning has been shown to depend on multiple interacting learning processes. For example, learning to adapt when moving grasped objects with novel dynamics involves a fast process that adapts and decays quickly-and that has been linked to explicit memory-and a slower process that adapts and decays more gradually. Each process is characterized by a learning rate that controls how strongly motor memory is updated based on experienced errors and a retention factor determining the movement-to-movement decay in motor memory. Here we examined whether fast and slow motor learning processes involved in learning novel dynamics differ between younger and older adults. In addition, we investigated how age-related decline in explicit memory performance influences learning and retention parameters. Although the groups adapted equally well, they did so with markedly different underlying processes. Whereas the groups had similar fast processes, they had different slow processes. Specifically, the older adults exhibited decreased retention in their slow process compared with younger adults. Within the older group, who exhibited considerable variation in explicit memory performance, we found that poor explicit memory was associated with reduced retention in the fast process, as well as the slow process. These findings suggest that explicit memory resources are a determining factor in impairments in the both the fast and slow processes for motor learning but that aging effects on the slow process are independent of explicit memory declines. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/3413411-11$15.00/0.

Subjective cognitive decline: self and informant comparisons.

PubMed

Caselli, Richard J; Chen, Kewei; Locke, Dona E C; Lee, Wendy; Roontiva, Auttawut; Bandy, Dan; Fleisher, Adam S; Reiman, Eric M

2014-01-01

It is unclear whether self- or informant-based subjective cognition better distinguishes emotional factors from early-stage Alzheimer's disease (AD). Healthy members (n = 447) of the Arizona apolipoprotein E (APOE) cohort and their informants completed the self and informant paired Multidimensional Assessment of Neurodegenerative Symptoms questionnaire (MANS). Decline on the MANS was endorsed by 30.6% of members and 26.2% of informants. Self- and informant-based decliners had higher scores of psychological distress and slightly lower cognitive scores than nondecliners. Over the next 6.7 years, 20 developed mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Converters were older at entry than nonconverters (63.8 [7.0] vs 58.8 [7.3] years, P = .003), 85% were APOE ε4 carriers (P < .0001), and they self-endorsed decline earlier than informants (58.9 [39.2] vs 28.0 [40.4] months before MCI; P = .002). Self- and informant-based subjective decline correlated with greater psychological distress and slightly lower cognitive performance. Those with incident MCI generally self-endorsed decline earlier than informants. Copyright © 2014 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Globalization and the price decline of illicit drugs.

PubMed

Costa Storti, Cláudia; De Grauwe, Paul

2009-01-01

This study aims at understanding the mechanisms underlying the dramatic decline of the retail prices of major drugs like cocaine and heroin during the past two decades. It also aims at analysing the implications of this decline for drug policies. We use a theoretical model to identify the possible causes of this price decline. This allows us to formulate the hypothesis that the major driving force behind the price decline is a reduction of the intermediation margin (the difference between the retail and producer prices). We also develop the hypothesis that globalization has been an important factor behind the decline of the intermediation margin. We then analyse the statistical information to test these hypotheses. We find that the decline in the retail prices of drugs is related to the strong decline in the intermediation margin in the drug business, and that globalization is the main driving force behind this phenomenon. Globalization has done so by increasing the efficiency of the distribution of drugs, by reducing the risk premium involved in dealing with drugs, and by increasing the degree of competition in the drug markets. We conclude that the cocaine and heroin price declines were due to a sharp fall in the intermediation margin, which was probably influenced by globalization. This phenomenon might have a strong impact on the effectiveness of drug policies, increasing the relative effectiveness of policies aiming at reducing the demand of drugs.

Declining Return Migration from the United States to Mexico in the late-2000s Recession: A Research Note

PubMed Central

Rendall, Michael S.; Brownell, Peter; Kups, Sarah

2011-01-01

Researchers in the U.S. and Mexico have variously asserted that return migration from the U.S. to Mexico has increased substantially, remained unchanged, or declined slightly in response to the 2008–2009 U.S. recession and fall 2008 global financial crisis. The present study addresses this debate using microdata through 2009 from a large-scale, quarterly Mexican household survey, the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE), after first validating the ENOE against return migration estimates from a specialist demographic survey, the National Survey of Demographic Dynamics (ENADID). Declines in annual return migration flows of up to a third between 2007 and 2009 were seen among the predominantly labor-migrant groups of male migrants and all 18 to 40 year old migrants with less than a college education, and a decline in total return migration was seen in the fourth quarter of 2008 (immediately after the triggering of the global financial crisis) compared to the fourth quarter of 2007. PMID:21744184

Declining return migration from the United States to Mexico in the late-2000s recession: a research note.

PubMed

Rendall, Michael S; Brownell, Peter; Kups, Sarah

2011-08-01

Researchers in the United States and Mexico have variously asserted that return migration from the United States to Mexico increased substantially, remained unchanged, or declined slightly in response to the 2008-2009 U.S. recession and fall 2008 global financial crisis. The present study addresses this debate using microdata from 2005 through 2009 from a large-scale, quarterly Mexican household survey, the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE), after first validating the ENOE against return-migration estimates from a specialist demographic survey, the National Survey of Demographic Dynamics (ENADID). Declines in annual return-migration flows of up to a third between 2007 and 2009 were seen among the predominantly labor-migrant groups of male migrants and all 18- to 40-year-old migrants with less than a college education; and a decline in total return migration was seen in the fourth quarter of 2008 (immediately after the triggering of the global financial crisis) compared with the fourth quarter of 2007.

Problems Associated with Declining National Oil Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, J. S.

2009-12-01

Forecasts of peak oil production have focussed on the global impacts of declining production. Meanwhile, national oil production has declined in 20 countries, leading to local problems that receive little comment outside of the effected regions. Two problems deserve wider recognition: declining state revenues and fuel substitution. Most oil producing countries with large reserves adopted licensing practices that provide significant revenues to the host governments such that oil revenues generate from 40 to 80 percent of total government funds. Typically these governments allocate a fraction of this revenue to their state oil companies, utilizing the remainder for other activities. As oil revenues decline with falling production, host governments face a dilemma: either to increase state oil company budgets in order to stem the decline, or to starve the state oil company while maintaining other government programs. The declining oil revenues in these states can significantly reduce the government's ability to address important national issues. Mexico, Indonesia, and Yemen illustrate this situation in its early phases. Fuel substitution occurs whenever one fuel proves less expensive than another. The substitution of coal for wood in the eighteenth century and oil for coal in the twentieth century are classic examples. China and India appear to be at peak oil production, while their economies generate increasing demand for energy. Both countries are substituting coal and natural gas for oil with attendant environmental impacts. Coal-to-liquids projects are proposed in in both China, which will require significant water resources if they are executed. These examples suggest that forecasting the impact of peak oil at a regional level requires more than an assessment of proven-probable-possible reserves and a forecast of supply-demand scenarios. A range of government responses to declining oil income scenarios must also be considered, together with scenarios describing

Amphibian decline in Yellowstone National Park

Treesearch

Debra A. Patla; Charles R. Peterson; Paul Stephen Corn

2009-01-01

We conduct long-term amphibian monitoring in Yellowstone National Park (YNP) (1) and read McMenamin et al.'s article (2) with interest. This study documents decline in the extent of seasonal wetlands in the Lamar Valley of YNP during extended drought, but the conclusion, widely reported in the media, of "severe declines in 4 once-common amphibian species,...

Reversing Africa's Decline. Worldwatch Paper 65.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Lester R.; Wolf, Edward C.

This paper highlights some of the themes that any successful strategy to reverse the decline of Africa must embrace. Africa is a continent experiencing a breakdown in the relationship between people and their natural support systems. Famine and the threat of famine are among the manifestations of this breakdown. This decline can be reversed. To do…

Declines revisited: Long-term recovery and spatial population dynamics oftailed frog larvae after wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hossack, Blake R.; Honeycutt, Richard

2017-01-01

Drought has fueled an increased frequency and severity of large wildfires in many ecosystems. Despite an increase in research on wildfire effects on vertebrates, the vast majority of it has focused on short-term (< 5 years) effects and there is still little information on the time scale of population recovery for species that decline in abundance after fire. In 2003, a large wildfire in Montana (USA) burned the watersheds of four of eight streams that we sampled for larval Rocky Mountain tailed frogs (Ascaphus montanus) in 2001. Surveys during 2004–2005 revealed reduced abundance of larvae in burned streams relative to unburned streams, with greater declines associated with increased fire extent. Rocky Mountain tailed frogs have low vagility and have several unusual life-history traits that could slow population recovery, including an extended larval period (4 years), delayed sexual maturity (6–8 years), and low fecundity (< 50 eggs/year). To determine if abundance remained depressed since the 2003 wildfire, we repeated surveys during 2014–2015 and found relative abundance of larvae in burned and unburned streams had nearly converged to pre-fire conditions within two generations. The negative effects of burn extent on larval abundance weakened> 58% within 12 years after the fire. We also found moderate synchrony among populations in unburned streams and negative spatial autocorrelation among populations in burned streams. We suspect negative spatial autocorrelation among spatially-clustered burned streams reflected increased post-fire patchiness in resources and different rates of local recovery. Our results add to a growing body of work that suggests populations in intact ecosystems tend to be resilient to habitat changes caused by wildfire. Our results also provide important insights into recovery times of populations that have been negatively affected by severe wildfire.

Declining Black Employment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vedder, Richard; Gallaway, Lowell

1993-01-01

Explores income inequality during declining African-American employment, examines current welfare systems, and suggests ways to improve the economic disadvantages of minority groups. Letting markets work can improve the economic status of African Americans. The present dual African-American economy, a market economy and an entitlement economy, is…

Analysis of pelagic species decline in the upper San Francisco Estuary using multivariate autoregressive modeling (MAR)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mac Nally, Ralph; Thomson, James R.; Kimmerer, Wim J.; Feyrer, Frederick; Newman, Ken B.; Sih, Andy; Bennett, William A.; Brown, Larry; Fleishman, Erica; Culberson, Steven D.; Castillo, Gonzalo

2010-01-01

Four species of pelagic fish of particular management concern in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, have declined precipitously since ca. 2002: delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys), striped bass (Morone saxatilis), and threadfin shad (Dorosoma petenense). The estuary has been monitored since the late 1960s with extensive collection of data on the fishes, their pelagic prey, phytoplankton biomass, invasive species, and physical factors. We used multivariate autoregressive (MAR) modeling to discern the main factors responsible for the declines. An expert-elicited model was built to describe the system. Fifty-four relationships were built into the model, only one of which was of uncertain direction a priori. Twenty-eight of the proposed relationships were strongly supported by or consistent with the data, while 26 were close to zero (not supported by the data but not contrary to expectations). The position of the 2‰ isohaline (a measure of the physical response of the estuary to freshwater flow) and increased water clarity over the period of analyses were two factors affecting multiple declining taxa (including fishes and the fishes' main zooplankton prey). Our results were relatively robust with respect to the form of stock–recruitment model used and to inclusion of subsidiary covariates but may be enhanced by using detailed state–space models that describe more fully the life-history dynamics of the declining species.

Analysis of pelagic species decline in the upper San Francisco Estuary using multivariate autoregressive modeling (MAR).

PubMed

Mac Nally, Ralph; Thomson, James R; Kimmerer, Wim J; Feyrer, Frederick; Newman, Ken B; Sih, Andy; Bennett, William A; Brown, Larry; Fleishman, Erica; Culberson, Steven D; Castillo, Gonzalo

2010-07-01

Four species of pelagic fish of particular management concern in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, have declined precipitously since ca. 2002: delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys), striped bass (Morone saxatilis), and threadfin shad (Dorosoma petenense). The estuary has been monitored since the late 1960s with extensive collection of data on the fishes, their pelagic prey, phytoplankton biomass, invasive species, and physical factors. We used multivariate autoregressive (MAR) modeling to discern the main factors responsible for the declines. An expert-elicited model was built to describe the system. Fifty-four relationships were built into the model, only one of which was of uncertain direction a priori. Twenty-eight of the proposed relationships were strongly supported by or consistent with the data, while 26 were close to zero (not supported by the data but not contrary to expectations). The position of the 2 per thousand isohaline (a measure of the physical response of the estuary to freshwater flow) and increased water clarity over the period of analyses were two factors affecting multiple declining taxa (including fishes and the fishes' main zooplankton prey): Our results were relatively robust with respect to the form of stock-recruitment model used and to inclusion of subsidiary covariates but may be enhanced by using detailed state-space models that describe more fully the life-history dynamics of the declining species.

Widespread decline of Congo rainforest greenness in the past decade.

PubMed

Zhou, Liming; Tian, Yuhong; Myneni, Ranga B; Ciais, Philippe; Saatchi, Sassan; Liu, Yi Y; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Haishan; Vermote, Eric F; Song, Conghe; Hwang, Taehee

2014-05-01

Tropical forests are global epicentres of biodiversity and important modulators of climate change, and are mainly constrained by rainfall patterns. The severe short-term droughts that occurred recently in Amazonia have drawn attention to the vulnerability of tropical forests to climatic disturbances. The central African rainforests, the second-largest on Earth, have experienced a long-term drying trend whose impacts on vegetation dynamics remain mostly unknown because in situ observations are very limited. The Congolese forest, with its drier conditions and higher percentage of semi-evergreen trees, may be more tolerant to short-term rainfall reduction than are wetter tropical forests, but for a long-term drought there may be critical thresholds of water availability below which higher-biomass, closed-canopy forests transition to more open, lower-biomass forests. Here we present observational evidence for a widespread decline in forest greenness over the past decade based on analyses of satellite data (optical, thermal, microwave and gravity) from several independent sensors over the Congo basin. This decline in vegetation greenness, particularly in the northern Congolese forest, is generally consistent with decreases in rainfall, terrestrial water storage, water content in aboveground woody and leaf biomass, and the canopy backscatter anomaly caused by changes in structure and moisture in upper forest layers. It is also consistent with increases in photosynthetically active radiation and land surface temperature. These multiple lines of evidence indicate that this large-scale vegetation browning, or loss of photosynthetic capacity, may be partially attributable to the long-term drying trend. Our results suggest that a continued gradual decline of photosynthetic capacity and moisture content driven by the persistent drying trend could alter the composition and structure of the Congolese forest to favour the spread of drought-tolerant species.

Kinship and the decline of fertility.

PubMed

Zhou, Y

1996-01-01

China's family planning and population control policies, together with the move toward a more market-oriented economy since the 1980s, have led to significant change in people's reproductive values and behavior and a substantial decline in fertility. Traditional kinship in China, its terminology, and the impact of fertility decline on kinship in China and Chinese society are discussed. The decline in fertility is affecting or will affect China's kinship system, the corresponding pattern of terminology, and the social structure. In the more market-oriented economy which has been developing in China, the simplification of the kinship system will help change the structure of Chinese society and weaken the traditional patriarchal culture. A more individualized, contractualized social structure and relationships will result.

Five Years of Experimental Warming Increases the Biodiversity and Productivity of Phytoplankton

PubMed Central

Yvon-Durocher, Gabriel; Allen, Andrew P.; Cellamare, Maria; Dossena, Matteo; Gaston, Kevin J.; Leitao, Maria; Montoya, José M.; Reuman, Daniel C.; Woodward, Guy; Trimmer, Mark

2015-01-01

Phytoplankton are key components of aquatic ecosystems, fixing CO2 from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and supporting secondary production, yet relatively little is known about how future global warming might alter their biodiversity and associated ecosystem functioning. Here, we explore how the structure, function, and biodiversity of a planktonic metacommunity was altered after five years of experimental warming. Our outdoor mesocosm experiment was open to natural dispersal from the regional species pool, allowing us to explore the effects of experimental warming in the context of metacommunity dynamics. Warming of 4°C led to a 67% increase in the species richness of the phytoplankton, more evenly-distributed abundance, and higher rates of gross primary productivity. Warming elevated productivity indirectly, by increasing the biodiversity and biomass of the local phytoplankton communities. Warming also systematically shifted the taxonomic and functional trait composition of the phytoplankton, favoring large, colonial, inedible phytoplankton taxa, suggesting stronger top-down control, mediated by zooplankton grazing played an important role. Overall, our findings suggest that temperature can modulate species coexistence, and through such mechanisms, global warming could, in some cases, increase the species richness and productivity of phytoplankton communities. PMID:26680314

[Declining fertility with age].

PubMed

Lourdel, Emmanuelle; Merviel, Philippe; Cabry-Goubet, Rosalie; Brzakowski, Mélanie

2010-06-20

The will to be a mother at a late age has become a real problem of society for many reasons, first and foremost because of efficient birth control, long studies and second matrimonies. In front of these still young women but quite "old" for maternity, practitioners specialized in medically assisted procreation (MAP) are often helpless, specially because most of the patients think that the MAP will be able to cure the natural decline of fertility. However, MAP's procedures cannot correct the decrease of pregnancies' rates and the increase of spontaneous miscarriages linked with the age. One of the first aims of consulting-physicians should be to give patients proper advice about fertility decline, so that women could run their life, aware of these facts.

Healthy eating and reduced risk of cognitive decline

PubMed Central

Dehghan, Mahshid; O'Donnell, Martin; Anderson, Craig; Teo, Koon; Gao, Peggy; Sleight, Peter; Dagenais, Gilles; Probstfield, Jeffrey L.; Mente, Andrew; Yusuf, Salim

2015-01-01

Objective: We sought to determine the association of dietary factors and risk of cognitive decline in a population at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Methods: Baseline dietary intake and measures of the Mini-Mental State Examination were recorded in 27,860 men and women who were enrolled in 2 international parallel trials of the ONTARGET (Ongoing Telmisartan Alone and in Combination with Ramipril Global Endpoint Trial) and TRANSCEND (Telmisartan Randomised Assessment Study in ACE Intolerant Subjects with Cardiovascular Disease) studies. We measured diet quality using the modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine the association between diet quality and risk of ≥3-point decline in Mini-Mental State Examination score, and reported as hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals with adjustment for covariates. Results: During 56 months of follow-up, 4,699 cases of cognitive decline occurred. We observed lower risk of cognitive decline among those in the healthiest dietary quintile of modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index compared with lowest quintile (hazard ratio 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.66–0.86, Q5 vs Q1). Lower risk of cognitive decline was consistent regardless of baseline cognitive level. Conclusion: We found that higher diet quality was associated with a reduced risk of cognitive decline. Improved diet quality represents an important potential target for reducing the global burden of cognitive decline. PMID:25948720

Reproductive health laws and fertility decline in Ghana.

PubMed

Finlay, Jocelyn E; Fox, Ashley M

2013-11-01

An unresolved debate in demography concerns the causal sequence between the supply of contraception and the demand for smaller families in fertility decline. Through a mixed-methods approach, we explored the effect of a sudden increase in access to legal abortion on subsequent fertility decline when Ghana's criminal code was amended in 1985. Using Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys, we constructed a panel of women aged 15-34 years and undertook a spline regression analysis to examine the effect of legal changes in 1985 and fertility decline controlling for social determinants of fertility. In addition, we conducted 17 key informant interviews (KIIs) to understand the reasons for the legal change and competing explanations for fertility decline. Multivariate results indicated that the timing of the liberalization of the abortion law coincided with the onset of Ghana's fertility decline. The KIIs indicated that the reasons for the liberalization of reproductive health laws were in response to famine and physician advocacy. While the timing of the abortion law liberalization coincided with the fertility decline in Ghana, we are unable to decouple the effect of the legal change from the effects of a severe famine that affected the region at the same time. Further research on documented and undocumented abortion in Ghana should be conducted to validate the contribution of legal abortion to fertility decline. © 2013.

Greenhouse gas impacts of declining hydrocarbon resource quality: Depletion, dynamics, and process emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, Adam Robert

This dissertation explores the environmental and economic impacts of the transition to hydrocarbon substitutes for conventional petroleum (SCPs). First, mathematical models of oil depletion are reviewed, including the Hubbert model, curve-fitting methods, simulation models, and economic models. The benefits and drawbacks of each method are outlined. I discuss the predictive value of the models and our ability to determine if one model type works best. I argue that forecasting oil depletion without also including substitution with SCPs results in unrealistic projections of future energy supply. I next use information theoretic techniques to test the Hubbert model of oil depletion against five other asymmetric and symmetric curve-fitting models using data from 139 oil producing regions. I also test the assumptions that production curves are symmetric and that production is more bell-shaped in larger regions. Results show that if symmetry is enforced, Gaussian production curves perform best, while if asymmetry is allowed, asymmetric exponential models prove most useful. I also find strong evidence for asymmetry: production declines are consistently less steep than inclines. In order to understand the impacts of oil depletion on GHG emissions, I developed the Regional Optimization Model for Emissions from Oil Substitutes (ROMEO). ROMEO is an economic optimization model of investment and production of fuels. Results indicate that incremental emissions (with demand held constant) from SCPs could be 5-20 GtC over the next 50 years. These results are sensitive to the endowment of conventional oil and not sensitive to a carbon tax. If demand can vary, total emissions could decline under a transition because the higher cost of SCPs lessens overall fuel consumption. Lastly, I study the energetic and environmental characteristics of the in situ conversion process, which utilizes electricity to generate liquid hydrocarbons from oil shale. I model the energy inputs and outputs

Reconstructing the competitive dynamics of mixed-oak neighborhoods

Treesearch

Eric K. Zenner; Daniel J. Heggenstaller; Patrick H. Brose; JeriLynn E. Peck; Kim C. Steiner

2012-01-01

The disparity between the potential for latent oak dominance within a stand and their region-wide decline in importance value raises questions about the competitiveness of oaks in early stand dynamics. We reconstructed tree height growth dynamics in mixed-species neighborhoods to determine if currently dominant oaks were ever shorter than their competitors and at what...

Declining Undergraduate Student Performance in Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spinelli, Teri

Factors contributing to declining academic performance of college students are considered, including: increased government intervention in education, declining faculty expectations and lowered standards, administrative policies, and changing student attitudes and expectations. One view is that government is largely responsible for the…

Declines of greater and lesser scaup populations: issues, hypotheses, and research needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, J.E.; Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.; Clark, R.G.; Custer, Christine M.; Lawrence, J.; Pollard, J.B.; Ringelman, J.K.

2000-01-01

The population estimate for greater (Aythya marila) and lesser (Aythya affinis) scaup (combined) has declined dramatically since the early 1980s to record lows in 1998. The 1998 estimate of 3.47 million scaup is far below the goal of 6.3 million set in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), causing concern among biologists and hunters. We summarize issues of concern, hypotheses for factors contributing to the population decline, and research and management needs recommended by participants of the Scaup Workshop, held in September 1999. We believe that contaminants, lower female survival, and reduced recruitment due to changes in food resources or breeding-ground habitats are primary factors contributing to the decline. These factors are not mutually exclusive but likely interact across seasons. Workshop participants identified seven action items. We need to further delineate where declines in breeding populations have occurred, with a primary focus on the western Canadian boreal forest, where declines appear to be most pronounced. Productivity in various areas and habitats throughout the breeding range needs to be assessed by conducting retrospective analyses of existing data and by intensive field studies at broad and local scales. Annual and seasonal survival rates need to be determined in order to assess the role of harvest or natural mortality. Effects of contaminants on reproduction, female body condition, and behavior must be investigated. Use, distribution, and role of food resources relative to body condition and reproduction need to be examined to better understand seasonal dynamics of nutrient reserves and the role in reproductive success. Affiliations among breeding, migration, and wintering areas must be assessed in order to understand differential exposure to harvest or contaminants, and differential reproductive success and recruitment. Biologists and agencies need to gather and improve information needed to manage greater and lesser

Oak Decline in Missouri: History Revisited

Treesearch

Jay R. Law; Ross Melick; Charly Studyvin; James R. Steinman

2004-01-01

In the 1980s, following extreme winters in the late 1970s and severe droughts in 1976, 1980, and 1983, dead and dying scarlet and black oaks were found on 185,000 acres of the Mark Twain National Forest. That decline event was linked to environmental stresses (Law and Gott 1987). Severe oak decline is now affecting an estimated 500,000 acres on the Mark Twain. High-...

Predictive value of modeled AUC(AFP-hCG), a dynamic kinetic parameter characterizing serum tumor marker decline in patients with nonseminomatous germ cell tumor.

PubMed

You, Benoit; Fronton, Ludivine; Boyle, Helen; Droz, Jean-Pierre; Girard, Pascal; Tranchand, Brigitte; Ribba, Benjamin; Tod, Michel; Chabaud, Sylvie; Coquelin, Henri; Fléchon, Aude

2010-08-01

The early decline profile of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) in patients with nonseminomatous germ cell tumors (NSGCT) treated with chemotherapy may be related to the risk of relapse. We assessed the predictive values of areas under the curve of hCG (AUC(hCG)) and AFP (AUC(AFP)) of modeled concentration-time equations on progression-free survival (PFS). Single-center retrospective analysis of hCG and AFP time-points from 65 patients with IGCCCG intermediate-poor risk NSGCT treated with 4 cycles of bleomycin-etoposide-cisplatin (BEP). To determine AUC(hCG) and AUC(AFP) for D0-D42, AUCs for D0-D7 were calculated using the trapezoid rule and AUCs for D7-D42 were calculated using the mathematic integrals of equations modeled with NONMEM. Combining AUC(AFP) and AUC(hCG) enabled us to define 2 predictive groups: namely, patients with favorable and unfavorable AUC(AFP-hCG). Survival analyses and ROC curves assessed the predictive values of AUC(AFP-hCG) groups regarding progression-free survival (PFS) and compared them with those of half-life (HL) and time-to-normalization (TTN). Mono-exponential models best fit the patterns of marker decreases. Patients with a favorable AUC(AFP-hCG) had a significantly better PFS (100% vs 71.5%, P = .014). ROC curves confirmed the encouraging predictive accuracy of AUC(AFP-hCG) against HL or TTN regarding progression risk (ROC AUCs = 79.6 vs 71.9 and 70.2 respectively). Because of the large number of patients with missing data, multivariate analysis could not be performed. AUC(AFP-hCG) is a dynamic parameter characterizing tumor marker decline in patients with NSGCT during BEP treatment. Its value as a promising predictive factor should be validated. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decadal declines in avian herbivore reproduction: density-dependent nutrition and phenological mismatch in the Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Megan V.; Alisaukas, Ray T.; Douglas, David C.; Kellett, Dana K.

2017-01-01

A full understanding of population dynamics depends not only on estimation of mechanistic contributions of recruitment and survival, but also knowledge about the ecological processes that drive each of these vital rates. The process of recruitment in particular may be protracted over several years, and can depend on numerous ecological complexities until sexually mature adulthood is attained. We addressed long-term declines (23 breeding seasons, 1992–2014) in the per capita production of young by both Ross's Geese (Chen rossii) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) nesting at Karrak Lake in Canada's central Arctic. During this period, there was a contemporaneous increase from 0.4 to 1.1 million adults nesting at this colony. We evaluated whether (1) density-dependent nutritional deficiencies of pre-breeding females or (2) phenological mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality, inferred from NDVI on the brood-rearing areas, may have been behind decadal declines in the per capita production of goslings. We found that, in years when pre-breeding females arrived to the nesting grounds with diminished nutrient reserves, the proportional composition of young during brood-rearing was reduced for both species. Furthermore, increased mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality contributed additively to further declines in gosling production, in addition to declines caused by delayed nesting with associated subsequent negative effects on clutch size and nest success. The degree of mismatch increased over the course of our study because of advanced vegetation phenology without a corresponding advance in Goose nesting phenology. Vegetation phenology was significantly earlier in years with warm surface air temperatures measured in spring (i.e., 25 May–30 June). We suggest that both increased phenological mismatch and reduced nutritional condition of arriving females were behind declines in population-level recruitment

Complex life cycles and density dependence: assessing the contribution of egg mortality to amphibian declines.

PubMed

Vonesh, James R; De la Cruz, Omar

2002-11-01

In the last decade there has been increasing evidence of amphibian declines from relatively pristine areas. Some declines are hypothesized to be the result of egg mortality caused by factors such as elevated solar UV-B irradiation, chemical pollutants, pathogenic fungi, and climate change. However, the population-level consequences of egg mortality have not been examined explicitly, and may be complicated by density dependence in intervening life-history stages. Here we develop a demographic model for two amphibians with contrasting life-history strategies, Bufo boreas and Ambystoma macrodactylum. We then use the complementary approaches of elasticity and limitation to examine the relationships among stage-specific survival rates, larval-stage density dependence and amphibian population dynamics. Elasticity analyses showed that for a range of density dependence scenarios both species were more sensitive to changes in post-embryonic survival parameters, particularly juvenile survival, than to egg survival, suggesting that mortality of later stages may play an important role in driving declines. Limitation analyses revealed that larval density dependence can dramatically alter the consequences of early mortality, reducing or even reversing the expected population-level effects of egg mortality. Thus, greater focus on later life stages and density dependence is called for to accurately assess how stressors are likely to affect amphibian populations of conservation concern.

Organic Seston Dynamics in Upland Neotropical Streams: Implications for Amphibian Declines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, S. D.; Colon-Gaud, C.; Whiles, M. R.; Hunte-Brown, M.; Connelly, S.; Kilham, S.; Pringle, C. M.; Lips, K. R.; Brenes, R.

2005-05-01

Organic seston represents food for filter feeders and a mechanism for downstream transport of energy and nutrients. As part of a study assessing the ecological impacts of stream-breeding anuran extirpations, we examined seston dynamics in 2 stream reaches with tadpoles (El Cope) and 2 without (Fortuna) in the Panamanian uplands. All reaches are high gradient with annual average discharge ranging from 46-102 L/s. Samples were collected multiple times per month at various discharges, sieved into fine (<754μm, >98μm) and very fine (<98μm, >1.6μm) fractions, and processed to estimate ash-free dry mass (AFDM), total C, and total N. Average annual concentrations ranged from 0.52- 2.51 mg/L (fine) and 2.04-3.14 mg/L (very fine), and total export ranged from 0.27-7,981 mg/s across all streams. On average, very fine particles comprised 78% of export from El Cope sites and 61% from Fortuna streams. Average total N export ranged from 5.32-30.53 mg/s in El Cope sites and 1.71-6.04 mg/s at Fortuna. Average particle quality (C/N) in El Cope streams was higher (7.6) than Fortuna streams (11.5). Lower export of very fine particles and lower seston quality in Fortuna streams suggests the loss of tadpoles may influence seston dynamics and quality in these systems.

Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications.

PubMed

Tsui, A O; Bogue, D J

1978-10-01

This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."

Studies of Microbiota Dynamics Reveals Association of "Candidatus Liberibacter Asiaticus" Infection with Citrus (Citrus sinensis) Decline in South of Iran.

PubMed

Passera, Alessandro; Alizadeh, Hamidreza; Azadvar, Mehdi; Quaglino, Fabio; Alizadeh, Asma; Casati, Paola; Bianco, Piero A

2018-06-20

Citrus Decline Disease was recently reported to affect several citrus species in Iran when grafted on a local rootstock variety, Bakraee. Preliminary studies found “ Candidatus Phytoplasma aurantifoliae” and “ Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus” as putative etiological agents, but were not ultimately able to determine which one, or if an association of both, were causing the disease. The current study has the aim of characterizing the microbiota of citrus plants that are either asymptomatic, showing early symptoms, or showing late symptoms through amplification of the V1⁻V3 region of 16S rRNA gene using an Illumina sequencer in order to (i) clarify the etiology of the disease, and (ii) describe the microbiota associated to different symptom stages. Our results suggest that liberibacter may be the main pathogen causing Citrus Decline Disease, but cannot rule out the possibility of phytoplasma being involved as well. The characterization of microbiota shows that the leaves show only two kinds of communities, either symptomatic or asymptomatic, while roots show clear distinction between early and late symptoms. These results could lead to the identification of bacteria that are related to successful plant defense response and, therefore, to immunity to the Citrus Decline Disease.

Microbial community activities during establishment, performance, and decline of bench-scale passive treatment systems for mine drainage.

PubMed

Logan, Miranda V; Reardon, Kenneth F; Figueroa, Linda A; McLain, Jean E T; Ahmann, Dianne M

2005-11-01

Permeable reactive barrier (PRB) technology, in which sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) facilitate precipitation of metal sulfides, is a promising approach for remediation of sulfate- and metal-laden mine drainage. While PRBs are easily established, they often decline for reasons not well understood. SRB depend on or compete with multiple dynamic microbial populations within a PRB; as a result, performance depends on the changing PRB chemical composition and on succession and competition within the microbial community. To investigate these interactions, we constructed and monitored eight bench-scale PRBs to define periods of establishment, performance, and decline. We then conducted short-term batch studies, using substrate-supplemented column materials, on Days 0 (pre-establishment), 27 (establishment), 41 (performance), and 99 (decline) to reveal potential activities of cellulolytic bacteria, fermenters + anaerobic respirers, SRB, and methanogens. PRBs showed active sulfate reduction, with sulfate removal rates (SRR) of approximately 1-3 mol/m3/d, as well as effective removal of Zn2+. Potential activities of fermentative + anaerobic respiratory bacteria were initially high but diminished greatly during establishment and dropped further during performance and decline. In contrast, potential SRB activity rose during establishment, peaked during performance, and diminished as performance declined. Potential methanogen activity was low; in addition, SRB-methanogen substrate competition was shown not to limit SRB activity. Cellulolytic bacteria showed no substrate limitation at any time. However, fermenters experienced substrate limitation by Day 0, SRB by Day 27, and methanogens by Day 41, showing the dependence of each group on upstream populations to provide substrates. All potential activities, except methanogenesis, were ultimately limited by cellulose hydrolysis; in addition, all potential activities except methanogenesis declined substantially by Day 99, showing

Mechanisms of Age-Related Decline in Memory Search Across the Adult Life Span

PubMed Central

Hills, Thomas T.; Mata, Rui; Wilke, Andreas; Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R.

2013-01-01

Three alternative mechanisms for age-related decline in memory search have been proposed, which result from either reduced processing speed (global slowing hypothesis), overpersistence on categories (cluster-switching hypothesis), or the inability to maintain focus on local cues related to a decline in working memory (cue-maintenance hypothesis). We investigated these 3 hypotheses by formally modeling the semantic recall patterns of 185 adults between 27 to 99 years of age in the animal fluency task (Thurstone, 1938). The results indicate that people switch between global frequency-based retrieval cues and local item-based retrieval cues to navigate their semantic memory. Contrary to the global slowing hypothesis that predicts no qualitative differences in dynamic search processes and the cluster-switching hypothesis that predicts reduced switching between retrieval cues, the results indicate that as people age, they tend to switch more often between local and global cues per item recalled, supporting the cue-maintenance hypothesis. Additional support for the cue-maintenance hypothesis is provided by a negative correlation between switching and digit span scores and between switching and total items recalled, which suggests that cognitive control may be involved in cue maintenance and the effective search of memory. Overall, the results are consistent with age-related decline in memory search being a consequence of reduced cognitive control, consistent with models suggesting that working memory is related to goal perseveration and the ability to inhibit distracting information. PMID:23586941

Menopause Is Associated with Accelerated Lung Function Decline.

PubMed

Triebner, Kai; Matulonga, Bobette; Johannessen, Ane; Suske, Sandra; Benediktsdóttir, Bryndís; Demoly, Pascal; Dharmage, Shyamali C; Franklin, Karl A; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gullón Blanco, José Antonio; Heinrich, Joachim; Holm, Mathias; Jarvis, Debbie; Jõgi, Rain; Lindberg, Eva; Moratalla Rovira, Jesús Martínez; Muniozguren Agirre, Nerea; Pin, Isabelle; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Puggini, Luca; Raherison, Chantal; Sánchez-Ramos, José Luis; Schlünssen, Vivi; Sunyer, Jordi; Svanes, Cecilie; Hustad, Steinar; Leynaert, Bénédicte; Gómez Real, Francisco

2017-04-15

Menopause is associated with changes in sex hormones, which affect immunity, inflammation, and osteoporosis and may impair lung function. Lung function decline has not previously been investigated in relation to menopause. To study whether lung function decline, assessed by FVC and FEV 1 , is accelerated in women who undergo menopause. The population-based longitudinal European Community Respiratory Health Survey provided serum samples, spirometry, and questionnaire data about respiratory and reproductive health from three study waves (n = 1,438). We measured follicle-stimulating hormone and luteinizing hormone and added information on menstrual patterns to determine menopausal status using latent class analysis. Associations with lung function decline were investigated using linear mixed effects models, adjusting for age, height, weight, pack-years, current smoking, age at completed full-time education, spirometer, and including study center as random effect. Menopausal status was associated with accelerated lung function decline. The adjusted mean FVC decline was increased by -10.2 ml/yr (95% confidence interval [CI], -13.1 to -7.2) in transitional women and -12.5 ml/yr (95% CI, -16.2 to -8.9) in post-menopausal women, compared with women menstruating regularly. The adjusted mean FEV 1 decline increased by -3.8 ml/yr (95% CI, -6.3 to -2.9) in transitional women and -5.2 ml/yr (95% CI, -8.3 to -2.0) in post-menopausal women. Lung function declined more rapidly among transitional and post-menopausal women, in particular for FVC, beyond the expected age change. Clinicians should be aware that respiratory health often deteriorates during reproductive aging.

The response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire in California to future climate scenarios simulated by the MC1 dynamic vegetation dynamic.

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Raymond Drapek; Ronald P. Neilson

2006-01-01

The objective of this study was to dynamically simulate the response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change for California using the MAPSS-CENTURY (MCI) dynamic general vegetation model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined with increased growing season length and warmth, and increases in...

Estimating and interpreting migration of Amazonian forests using spatially implicit and semi-explicit neutral models.

PubMed

Pos, Edwin; Guevara Andino, Juan Ernesto; Sabatier, Daniel; Molino, Jean-François; Pitman, Nigel; Mogollón, Hugo; Neill, David; Cerón, Carlos; Rivas-Torres, Gonzalo; Di Fiore, Anthony; Thomas, Raquel; Tirado, Milton; Young, Kenneth R; Wang, Ophelia; Sierra, Rodrigo; García-Villacorta, Roosevelt; Zagt, Roderick; Palacios Cuenca, Walter; Aulestia, Milton; Ter Steege, Hans

2017-06-01

With many sophisticated methods available for estimating migration, ecologists face the difficult decision of choosing for their specific line of work. Here we test and compare several methods, performing sanity and robustness tests, applying to large-scale data and discussing the results and interpretation. Five methods were selected to compare for their ability to estimate migration from spatially implicit and semi-explicit simulations based on three large-scale field datasets from South America (Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and Ecuador). Space was incorporated semi-explicitly by a discrete probability mass function for local recruitment, migration from adjacent plots or from a metacommunity. Most methods were able to accurately estimate migration from spatially implicit simulations. For spatially semi-explicit simulations, estimation was shown to be the additive effect of migration from adjacent plots and the metacommunity. It was only accurate when migration from the metacommunity outweighed that of adjacent plots, discrimination, however, proved to be impossible. We show that migration should be considered more an approximation of the resemblance between communities and the summed regional species pool. Application of migration estimates to simulate field datasets did show reasonably good fits and indicated consistent differences between sets in comparison with earlier studies. We conclude that estimates of migration using these methods are more an approximation of the homogenization among local communities over time rather than a direct measurement of migration and hence have a direct relationship with beta diversity. As betadiversity is the result of many (non)-neutral processes, we have to admit that migration as estimated in a spatial explicit world encompasses not only direct migration but is an ecological aggregate of these processes. The parameter m of neutral models then appears more as an emerging property revealed by neutral theory instead of

[Predictors of verbal memory decline following temporal lobe surgery].

PubMed

de Vanssay-Maigne, A; Boutin, M; Baudoin-Chial, S

2008-05-01

Verbal memory decline can occur after temporal lobe surgery, especially when the left dominant hemisphere is involved. This potential functional risk must be evaluated before surgery. Among all factors that have been identified by several studies, the side of surgery (left dominant) and high baseline memory performance have been found to be predictive of verbal memory decline. Other factors such as etiology, sex, age at surgery, age at seizure onset, and duration may influence memory decline, but the results are not clear. Our purpose was to identify, in our population of patients and among all risk factors, those that may be predictive of verbal memory decline. Logistic regression was used to examine the effect of each factor on the postoperative verbal memory index (WMS-R) in 101 patients who underwent a right (n=49) or left (n=52) anterior temporal lobe resection. In the group as a whole, 22 % of the patients demonstrated verbal memory decline of more than one standard deviation. The verbal memory decline was significantly related to surgery on the left side and a high level of verbal memory performance. These factors were significant predictors of decline. The other factors (etiology, sex, age at surgery, age at seizure onset, and duration) were not found to be predictive of this decline. Our analysis demonstrates that the patients who are most at risk of undergoing verbal memory deterioration are those who undergo left-sided temporal resection and have good memory scores preoperatively. The contradictions found in the literature about the other factors could be explained by the diversity of the tests and criteria used to assess memory decline.

Niche Contractions in Declining Species: Mechanisms and Consequences.

PubMed

Scheele, Ben C; Foster, Claire N; Banks, Sam C; Lindenmayer, David B

2017-05-01

A fundamental aim of conservation biology is to understand how species respond to threatening processes, with much research effort focused on identifying threats and quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of species decline. Here, we argue that threats often reduce the realized niche breadth of declining species because environmental, biotic, and evolutionary processes reduce or amplify threats, or because a species' capacity to tolerate threats varies across niche space. Our 'niche reduction hypothesis' provides a new lens for understanding why species decline in some locations and not others. This perspective can improve management of declining species by identifying where to focus resources and which interventions are most likely to be effective in a given environment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sea otter population declines in the Aleutian Archipelago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doroff, Angela M.; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M. Tim; Burn, Douglas M.; Evans, Thomas J.

2003-01-01

Sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations were exploited to near extinction and began to recover after the cessation of commercial hunting in 1911. Remnant colonies of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago were among the first to recover; they continued to increase through the 1980s but declined abruptly during the 1990s. We conducted an aerial survey of the Aleutian archipelago in 2000 and compared results with similar surveys conducted in 1965 and 1992. The number of sea otters counted decreased by 75% between 1965 and 2000; 88% for islands at equilibrial density in 1965. The population decline likely began in the mid-1980s and declined at a rate of 17.5%/year in the 1990s. The minimal population estimate was 8,742 sea otters in 2000. The population declined to a uniformly low density in the archipelago, suggesting a common and geographically widespread cause. These data are in general agreement with the hypothesis of increased predation on sea otters. These data chronicle one of the most widespread and precipitous population declines for a mammalian carnivore in recorded history.

THE HEALTH EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC DECLINE

PubMed Central

Catalano, Ralph; Goldman-Mellor, Sidra; Saxton, Katherine; Margerison-Zilko, Claire; Subbaraman, Meenakshi; LeWinn, Kaja; Anderson, Elizabeth

2013-01-01

The recent recession and lingering high unemployment will likely lead to a burst of research studying the health effects of economic decline. We aim to inform that work by summarizing empirical research concerned with those effects. We separate the studies into groups defined by questions asked, mechanisms invoked, and outcomes studied. We conclude that although much research shows that undesirable job and financial experiences increase the risk of psychological and behavioral disorder, many other suspected associations remain poorly studied or unsupported. The intuition that mortality increases when the economy declines, for example, appears wrong. We note that the research informs public health programming by identifying risk factors, such as job loss, made more frequent by economic decline. The promise that the research would identify health costs and benefits of economic policy choices, however, remains unfulfilled and will likely remain so without stronger theory and greater methodological agreement. PMID:21054175

26 CFR 1.167(b)-2 - Declining balance method.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Declining balance method. 1.167(b)-2 Section 1... Declining balance method. (a) Application of method. Under the declining balance method a uniform rate is.... While salvage is not taken into account in determining the annual allowances under this method, in no...

Genetic influences on cognitive decline in Parkinson's disease

PubMed Central

Morley, J.F.; Xie, S.X.; Hurtig, H.I.; Stern, M.B.; Colcher, A.; Horn, S.; Dahodwala, N.; Duda, J.E.; Weintraub, D.; Chen-Plotkin, A.S.; Van Deerlin, V.; Falcone, D.; Siderowf, A.

2012-01-01

Background The role of genetic factors in cognitive decline associated with Parkinson's disease is unclear. We examined whether variations in apolipoprotein E, microtubule-associated protein tau or catechol-O-methytransferase genotypes are associated with cognitive decline in Parkinson's disease. Methods We performed a prospective cohort study of 212 patients with a clinical diagnosis of Parkinson's disease. The primary outcome was change in Mattis Dementia Rating Scale version 2 score. Linear mixed-effects models and survival analysis were used to test for associations between genotypes and change in cognitive function over time. Results The ε4 allele of apoliporotein E was associated with more rapid decline (loss of 2.9 (95% CI, 1.7–4.1) more points/year, p<0.001) in total score and an increased risk of a ≥10 pointdrop during the follow-up period (HR 2.8, 95% CI 1.4–5.4, p=0.003). Microtubule-associated protein tau haplotype and catechol-O-methytransferase genotype were associated with measures of memory and attention, respectively, over the entire followup period but not with the overall rate of cognitive decline. Conclusion These results confirm and extend previously described genetic associations with cognitive decline in Parkinson's disease and imply that individual genes may exert effects on specific cognitive domains or at different disease stages. Carrying at least one apolipoprotein E ε4 allele is associated with more rapid cognitive decline in Parkinson's disease, supporting the idea of a component of shared etiology between Parkinson's disease dementia and Alzheimer disease. Clinically, these results suggest genotyping can provide information about the risk of future cognitive decline for Parkinson's disease patients. PMID:22344634

25 CFR 900.21 - When can a proposal be declined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 25 Indians 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false When can a proposal be declined? 900.21 Section 900.21... Declination Procedures § 900.21 When can a proposal be declined? As explained in §§ 900.16 and 900.17, a proposal can only be declined within 90 days after the Secretary receives the proposal, unless that period...

Forest declines in response to environmental change

Treesearch

Philip M. Wargo; Allan N.D. Auclair

2000-01-01

Decline diseases are intimately linked to stress and environmental change. There is strong evidence that, as a category, decline diseases have increased significantly in response to the climate, air chemistry, and other changes documented in the northeastern United States over the past century, and particularly the last two decades. No other forest response to...

A model for sex ratio decline in India.

PubMed

Thukral, A K

1996-01-01

"The sex ratio in India has declined from 972 females per 1,000 males in 1901 to 929 females per 1,000 males in 1991. A model [is] proposed for the quantitative analysis of the problem.... The study reveals that there has been a sex discriminated population growth in India in the twentieth century, although the rate of decline of the female has decreased. If the current trend of population growth continues, there will be a further decline in the [sex ratio]." excerpt

Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications

PubMed Central

Mensah, George A.; Wei, Gina S.; Sorlie, Paul D.; Fine, Lawrence J.; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G.; Mussolino, Michael E.; Hsu, Lucy L.; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M.; Gordon, David

2016-01-01

If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke has been the success story of the century’s last 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in CHD and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the U.S. population aged. However, in 1978 the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) concluded that a significant recent downtick in CHD and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the U.S. Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from CHD and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one-third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The NHLBI, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference in order to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. PMID:28104770

Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications.

PubMed

Mensah, George A; Wei, Gina S; Sorlie, Paul D; Fine, Lawrence J; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G; Mussolino, Michael E; Hsu, Lucy L; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M; Gordon, David

2017-01-20

If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke has been the success story of the century's past 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in coronary heart disease and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the US population aged. However, in 1978, the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute concluded that a significant recent downtick in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the US Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from coronary heart disease and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. © 2017 American Heart

MIND diet slows cognitive decline with aging.

PubMed

Morris, Martha Clare; Tangney, Christy C; Wang, Yamin; Sacks, Frank M; Barnes, Lisa L; Bennett, David A; Aggarwal, Neelum T

2015-09-01

The Mediterranean and dash diets have been shown to slow cognitive decline; however, neither diet is specific to the nutrition literature on dementia prevention. We devised the Mediterranean-Dietary Approach to Systolic Hypertension (DASH) diet intervention for neurodegenerative delay (MIND) diet score that specifically captures dietary components shown to be neuroprotective and related it to change in cognition over an average 4.7 years among 960 participants of the Memory and Aging Project. In adjusted mixed models, the MIND score was positively associated with slower decline in global cognitive score (β = 0.0092; P < .0001) and with each of five cognitive domains. The difference in decline rates for being in the top tertile of MIND diet scores versus the lowest was equivalent to being 7.5 years younger in age. The study findings suggest that the MIND diet substantially slows cognitive decline with age. Replication of these findings in a dietary intervention trial would be required to verify its relevance to brain health. Copyright © 2015 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Oak decline risk rating for the southeastern United States

Treesearch

S. Oak; F. Tainter; J. Williams; D. Starkey

1996-01-01

Oak decline risk rating models were developed for upland hardwood forests in the southeastern United States using data gathered during regional oak decline surveys. Stepwise discriminant analyses were used to relate 12 stand and site variables with major oak decline incidence for each of three subregions plus one incorporating all subregions. The best model for the...

A decomposition analysis of recent fertility decline in Fiji.

PubMed

Gubhaju, B; Shahidullah, M

1990-12-01

Over the period 1966-86, both the Fijian and Indian populations of Fiji demonstrated declines in fertility. Differentials in the decline were, however, noted with the total fertility rate (TFR) of the Fijian population declining by 26% over the period compared to a 50% decline in the Indian TFR. Moreover, rate declines were not smooth and consistent over the period. Faster fertility decline was experienced in the 1st decade for both groups, slowing in the 2nd decade for Indian women, and stabilizing among the Fijians. This paper decomposes these differential changes in fertility rate into marital structure and marital fertility. The study was conducted using data from the censuses of 1966, 1976, and 1986. For the period 1966-76, declines in marital fertility contributed most to overall TFR decline for both ethnic groups. Marital structure had a reducing effect upon TFR among Indian women in the 1st decaed, but not during the 2nd. Fijian women experienced an overall negative impact from marital structure. Contraception plays an important role in limiting fertility in these 2 populations. Accordingly, differentials in acceptance were noticed, the family planning acceptance rate for Indians being almost twice that of Fijians; 35.6% and 18.7%, respectively in 1986. Compared to Indian women, Fijian women were more literate, more economically active, had higher life expectancies, and experience lower infant mortality rates. Nonetheless, they are not motivated to use family planning. Motivational, cultural, religious, and behavioral factors are suggested as causal factors determining acceptance and use of modern contraceptive methods.

Nutritional factors associated with decline in Canada

Treesearch

Benoit Cote

1999-01-01

Forest decline in eastern Canada was particuiarly severe in the early 1980's and is still prevalent in some areas (Bowers and Hopkin 1997). Early public and scientific opinions on the causes of forest decline were often not based on sound scientific knowledge. Factors such as acidic precipitation and ozone were rnost often mentioned as direct causes of forest...

Decline of Ohia Lehua forests in Hawaii

Treesearch

Robert E. Burgan; Robert E. Nelson

1972-01-01

Thousands of acres of ohia lehua (Metrosidems collina) forests on the island of Hawaii have died, and tree death is progressing rapidly into healthy forests. Most of the losses are on State-owned lands. All of the "ohia decline" cannot be attributed to the same agent. Some of the earlier decline was attributed to frost and sulphur dioxide....

Increasing metabolic rate despite declining body weight in an adult parasitoid wasp.

PubMed

Casas, Jérôme; Body, Mélanie; Gutzwiller, Florence; Giron, David; Lazzari, Claudio R; Pincebourde, Sylvain; Richard, Romain; Llandres, Ana L

2015-08-01

Metabolic rate is a positive function of body weight, a rule valid for most organisms and the basis of several theories of metabolic ecology. For adult insects, however, the diversity of relationships between body mass and respiration remains unexplained. The aim of this study is to relate the respiratory metabolism of a parasitoid with body weight and foraging activity. We compared the metabolic rate of groups of starving and host-fed females of the parasitoid Eupelmus vuilleti recorded with respirometry for 7days, corresponding to the mean lifetime of starving females and over half of the lifetime of foraging females. The dynamics of carbohydrate, lipid and protein in the body of foraging females were quantified with biochemical techniques. Body mass and all body nutrients declined sharply from the first day onwards. By contrast, the CO2 produced and the O2 consumed increased steadily. Starving females showed the opposite trend, identifying foraging as the reason for the respiration increase of feeding females. Two complementary physiological processes explain the unexpected relationship between increasing metabolic rate and declining body weight. First, host hemolymph is a highly unbalanced food, and the excess nutrients (protein and carbohydrate) need to be voided, partially through excretion and partially through respiration. Second, a foraging young female produces eggs at an increasing rate during the first half of its lifetime, a process that also increases respiration. We posit that the time-varying metabolic rate contributions of the feeding and reproductive processes supplements the contribution of the structural mass and lead to the observed trend. We extend our explanations to other insect groups and discuss the potential for unification using Dynamic Energy Budget theory. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Normal cognitive decline or dementia?

PubMed

Ebmeier, Klaus P

2010-01-01

Cognitive speed, inhibitory function, and memory decline with age while crystallised, particularly verbal, abilities remain largely intact. Poor health, fewer years of education, lower activity, the presence of the APOE E4 allele, and high BP appear to predict faster cognitive decline. Dementia is diagnosed in the presence of objective cognitive impairment, both long- and short-term memory, plus at least one additional (cortical) cognitive deficit, such as dysphasia, dyspraxia, agnosia, or disturbance in executive functioning. In addition, patients have to show significant impairment in social or occupational functioning and a significant decline from previous levels. Both smoking and diabetes increase the risk of all types of dementia, not smoking or even stopping smoking reduces this risk, but better control of type 2 diabetes does not appear to have a measurable effect. Drinking small to moderate amounts of alcohol appears to confer some benefit in ameliorating cognitive decline. There is some evidence that HRT, DHEA, BP lowering in patients without prior cerebrovascular disease, statins, vitamin B6 and procaine are NOT helpful. There is insufficient evidence to establish or refute a beneficial effect for exercise, treatment of type 2 diabetes, omega-3 fatty acids, folic acid with/without vitamin B12, antioxidant vitamins, or ginkgo biloba. Depressive symptoms are more prevalent than dementia. Clinical (major) depression can present with cognitive deterioration, often associated with subjective complaints. Patients with subjective or objective memory impairment, but without functional deterioration, can be referred to the local memory clinic, while demented patients eligible for acetylcholinesterase inhibitor treatment, patients whose diagnosis is unclear and who may need some specific investigations, as well as patients who may benefit from a combined approach with psychotropic drugs and behavioural support should be referred to the local mental health team.

An epidemic model for the interactions between thermal regime of rivers and transmission of Proliferative Kidney Disease in salmonid fish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carraro, Luca; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Strepparava, Nicole; Hartikainen, Hanna; Rinaldo, Andrea

2015-04-01

Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) affects salmonid populations in European and North-American rivers. It is caused by the endoparasitic myxozoan Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, which exploits freshwater bryozoans (Fredericella sultana) and salmonids as primary and secondary hosts, respectively. Incidence and mortality, which can reach up to 90-100%, are known to be strongly related to water temperature. PKD has been present in brown trout population for a long time but has recently increased rapidly in incidence and severity causing a decline in fish catches in many countries. In addition, environmental changes are feared to cause PKD outbreaks at higher latitude and altitude regions as warmer temperatures promote disease development. This calls for a better comprehension of the interactions between disease dynamics and the thermal regime of rivers, in order to possibly devise strategies for disease management. In this perspective, a spatially explicit model of PKD epidemiology in riverine host metacommunities is proposed. The model aims at summarizing the knowledge on the modes of transmission of the disease and the life-cycle of the parasite, making the connection between temperature and epidemiological parameters explicit. The model accounts for both local population and disease dynamics of bryozoans and fish and hydrodynamic dispersion of the parasite spores and hosts along the river network. The model is time-hybrid, coupling inter-seasonal and intra-seasonal dynamics, the former being described in a continuous time domain, the latter seen as time steps of a discrete time domain. In order to test the model, a case study is conducted in river Wigger (Cantons of Aargau and Lucerne, Switzerland), where data about water temperature, brown trout and bryozoan populations and PKD prevalence are being collected.

The Decline of Intelligence in America: A Strategy for National Renewal.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Itzkoff, Seymour W.

It is argued that the United States is declining as a nation, a decline that can be confirmed by any of the criteria that historians have ever used to measure the state and condition of a nation and its people, and it is asserted that this decline is rooted in the overall decline of the intelligence capital of the nation, a decline in the levels…

Relationship Between Catastrophic Health Expenditures and Income Quintile Decline

PubMed Central

Kang, Jeong-Hee; Kim, Chul-Woung

2018-01-01

Objectives The aims of this study were to investigate the proportion of households facing catastrophic health expenditures based on household income quintiles, and to analyze the relationship between expenditures and household income quintile decline. Methods Study data were obtained from an annually conducted survey of the 2012–2013 Korean health panel. There were 12,909 subjects aged 20–64 years from economically active households, whose income quintile remained unchanged or declined by more than one quintile from 2012 to 2013. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine whether catastrophic health expenditures in 2012 were related to more than one quintile income decline in 2013. Results Households facing catastrophic health expenditures of ≥ 40%, ≥ 30%, and ≥ 10% of a household’s capacity to pay, were 1.58 times (p < 0.003), 1.75 times (p < 0.000), and 1.23 times (p < 0.001) more likely to face a decline in income quintile, respectively. Conclusion Over a 1 year period, the proportion of households facing more than one quintile income decline was 16.4%, while 2.1% to 2.5% of households in Korea faced catastrophic health expenditures. Catastrophic health expenditure experienced in 2012 was significantly associated with income quintile decline 1 year later. Therefore, lowering the proportion of households with catastrophic health expenditure may reduce the proportion of households with income quintiles decline. PMID:29740531

The Decline of Black Farming in America.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Browning, Pamela; And Others

The rapid decline in the number of farms operated by blacks in the United States, and the consequences of this decline on the conditions of black farmers are the focus of this report. Chapter 1 compares the rate of agricultural land loss from 1900 to 1978 among blacks and whites. Chapter 2 outlines historical conditions, such as racism, lack of…

Metabolic rates of benthic deep-sea decapod crustaceans decline with increasing depth primarily due to the decline in temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Childress, J. J.; Cowles, D. L.; Favuzzi, J. A.; Mickel, T. J.

1990-06-01

The oxygen consumption rates of 11 species of benthic deep-sea decapod crustaceans were measured at a variety of temperatures to test the hypothesis that the metabolic rates of benthic crustaceans decline with increasing depth of occurrence only to the extent explained by the decline in temperature with depth. The species were captured at depths between 150 and 2000m off Southern California using an epibenthic beam trawl equipped with a thermally protecting cod-end to bring the animals to the surface uncontaminated by sediment and at the depth temperature. The data, combined with those for six species of shallower-living crustaceans from California waters, showed a significant decline in oxygen consumption rate with increased species' depths of occurrence, when the measurements were made at temperatures appropriate to each species' depth range. There was no significant relation between wet weight and depth of occurrence in these species. When the data were adjusted to 10°C using a moderate temperature effect factor (corresponding to Q10 values of 2-2.3 depending on the species and temperature range), the significant relationship between oxygen consumption rate and depth was lost, indicating that the observed decline with depth was due to the decline in temperature with depth. When the relationship between metabolic rate and depth of occurrence for the most active (carideans and penaeid) species were compared (ANCOVA) with that for the rest of the species, the active species had significantly higher rates. By combining this data set with data from the literature for a wide variety of shallow-living benthic decapod crustaceans, it was possible to create a data set of 35 species in which the effects of temperature, minimum depth of occurrence and body mass could be separated by multiple linear regression. This demonstrated highly significant effects of size and temperature, but no significant effect of depth for the entire data set and for the data set excluding

Climate Change Predominantly Caused U.S. Soil Water Storage Decline from 2003 to 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Ma, C.; Song, X.; Gao, L.; Liu, M.; Xu, X.

2016-12-01

The water storage in soils is a fundamental resource for natural ecosystems and human society, while it is highly variable due to its complicated controlling factors in a changing climate; therefore, understanding water storage variation and its controlling factors is essential for sustaining human society, which relies on water resources. Although we are confident for water availability at global scale, the regional-scale water storage and its controlling factors are not fully understood. A number of researchers have reported that water resources are expected to diminish as climate continues warming in the 21stcentury, which will further influence human and ecological systems. However, few studies to date have fully quantitatively examined the water balances and its individual controlling mechanisms in the conterminous US. In this study, we integrated the time-series data of water storage and evapotranspiration derived from satellite imageries, regional meteorological data, and social-economic water consumption, to quantify water storage dynamics and its controlling factors across the conterminous US from 2003 to 2014. The water storage decline was found in majority of conterminous US, with the largest decline in southwestern US. Net atmospheric water input, which is difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration, could explain more than 50% of the inter-annual variation of water storage variation in majority of US with minor contributions from human water consumption. Climate change, expressed as precipitation decreases and warming, made dominant contribution to the water storage decline in the conterminous U.S. from 2003 to 2014.

A human-driven decline in global burned area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andela, N.; Morton, D. C.; Chen, Y.; van der Werf, G.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; Randerson, J. T.

2016-12-01

Fire is an important and dynamic ecosystem process that influences many aspects of the global Earth system. Here, we used several different satellite datasets to assess trends in global burned area during 1998 to 2014. Global burned area decreased by about 21.6 ± 8.5% over the period from 1998-2014, with large regional declines observed in savanna and grassland ecosystems in northern Africa, Eurasia, and South America. The decrease in burned area remained robust after removing the influence of climate (16.0 ± 6.0%), implicating human activity as a likely driver. To further investigate the mechanisms contributing to regional and global trends, we conducted several kinds of analysis, including separation of burned area into ignition and fire size components and geospatial analysis of fire trends in relationship with demographic and land use variables. We found that fire number was a more important factor contributing to burned area trends than fire size, suggesting a reduction in the use of fire for management purposes. Concurrent decreases in fire size also contributed to the trend outside of North and South America, suggesting a role for greater landscape fragmentation. From our geospatial analysis, we developed a conceptual model that incorporates a range of drivers for human-driven changes in biomass burning that can be used to guide global fire models, currently unable to reproduce these large scale recent trends. Patterns of agricultural expansion and land use intensification are likely to further contribute to declining burned area trends in future decades, with important consequences for Earth system processes mediated by surface albedo, greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosols. Our results also highlight the vulnerability of savannas and grassland to land use changes with unprecedented global scale consequences for vegetation structure and the carbon cycle.

AMPHIBIAN DECLINE, ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION AND LOCAL POPULATION ADAPTATION

EPA Science Inventory

Amphibian population declines have been noted on both local and global scales. Causes for these declines are unknown although many hypotheses have been offered. In areas adjacent to human development, loss of habitat is a fairly well accepted cause. However in isolated, seemingl...

Thinner cortex in patients with subjective cognitive decline is associated with steeper decline of memory.

PubMed

Verfaillie, Sander C J; Slot, Rosalinde E; Tijms, Betty M; Bouwman, Femke; Benedictus, Marije R; Overbeek, Jozefien M; Koene, Teddy; Vrenken, Hugo; Scheltens, Philip; Barkhof, Frederik; van der Flier, Wiesje M

2018-01-01

We aimed to investigate associations between regional cortical thickness and rate of decline over time in 4 cognitive domains in patients with subjective cognitive decline (SCD). We included 233 SCD patients with the total number of 654 neuropsychological assessments (median = 3, range = 2-8) and available baseline magnetic resonance imaging from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort (125 males, age: 63 ± 9, Mini-Mental State Examination score: 28 ± 2). We assessed longitudinal cognitive functioning at baseline and follow-up in 4 cognitive domains (composite Z-scores): memory, attention, executive function, and language. Thickness (millimeter) was estimated using FreeSurfer for frontal, temporal, parietal, cingulate, and occipital cortices. We used linear mixed models to estimate effects of cortical thickness on cognitive performance (dependent variables). There were no associations between cortical thickness and baseline cognition, but a faster subsequent rate of memory loss was associated with thinner cortex of the frontal [β (SE) = 0.20 (0.07)], temporal [β (SE) = 0.18 (0.07)], and occipital [β (SE) = 0.22 (0.09)] cortices (all p < 0.05 FDR ). These findings illustrate that early cortical changes, particularly in the temporal cortex, herald incipient cognitive decline related to neurodegenerative diseases, most prominently Alzheimer's disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tree decline and the future of Australian farmland biodiversity

PubMed Central

Fischer, Joern; Zerger, Andre; Gibbons, Phil; Stott, Jenny; Law, Bradley S.

2010-01-01

Farmland biodiversity is greatly enhanced by the presence of trees. However, farmland trees are declining worldwide, including in North America, Central America, and parts of southern Europe. We show that tree decline and its likely consequences are particularly severe in Australia's temperate agricultural zone, which is a threatened ecoregion. Using field data on trees, remotely sensed imagery, and a demographic model for trees, we predict that by 2100, the number of trees on an average farm will contract to two-thirds of its present level. Statistical habitat models suggest that this tree decline will negatively affect many currently common animal species, with predicted declines in birds and bats of up to 50% by 2100. Declines were predicted for 24 of 32 bird species modeled and for all of six bat species modeled. Widespread declines in trees, birds, and bats may lead to a reduction in economically important ecosystem services such as shade provision for livestock and pest control. Moreover, many other species for which we have no empirical data also depend on trees, suggesting that fundamental changes in ecosystem functioning are likely. We conclude that Australia's temperate agricultural zone has crossed a threshold and no longer functions as a self-sustaining woodland ecosystem. A regime shift is occurring, with a woodland system deteriorating into a treeless pasture system. Management options exist to reverse tree decline, but new policy settings are required to encourage their widespread adoption. PMID:20974946

Decadal declines in avian herbivore reproduction: density-dependent nutrition and phenological mismatch in the Arctic.

PubMed

Ross, Megan V; Alisauskas, Ray T; Douglas, David C; Kellett, Dana K

2017-07-01

A full understanding of population dynamics depends not only on estimation of mechanistic contributions of recruitment and survival, but also knowledge about the ecological processes that drive each of these vital rates. The process of recruitment in particular may be protracted over several years, and can depend on numerous ecological complexities until sexually mature adulthood is attained. We addressed long-term declines (23 breeding seasons, 1992-2014) in the per capita production of young by both Ross's Geese (Chen rossii) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) nesting at Karrak Lake in Canada's central Arctic. During this period, there was a contemporaneous increase from 0.4 to 1.1 million adults nesting at this colony. We evaluated whether (1) density-dependent nutritional deficiencies of pre-breeding females or (2) phenological mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality, inferred from NDVI on the brood-rearing areas, may have been behind decadal declines in the per capita production of goslings. We found that, in years when pre-breeding females arrived to the nesting grounds with diminished nutrient reserves, the proportional composition of young during brood-rearing was reduced for both species. Furthermore, increased mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality contributed additively to further declines in gosling production, in addition to declines caused by delayed nesting with associated subsequent negative effects on clutch size and nest success. The degree of mismatch increased over the course of our study because of advanced vegetation phenology without a corresponding advance in Goose nesting phenology. Vegetation phenology was significantly earlier in years with warm surface air temperatures measured in spring (i.e., 25 May-30 June). We suggest that both increased phenological mismatch and reduced nutritional condition of arriving females were behind declines in population-level recruitment, leading

Dynamics of Social Group Competition: Modeling the Decline of Religious Affiliation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abrams, Daniel M.; Yaple, Haley A.; Wiener, Richard J.

2011-08-01

When social groups compete for members, the resulting dynamics may be understandable with mathematical models. We demonstrate that a simple ordinary differential equation (ODE) model is a good fit for religious shift by comparing it to a new international data set tracking religious nonaffiliation. We then generalize the model to include the possibility of nontrivial social interaction networks and examine the limiting case of a continuous system. Analytical and numerical predictions of this generalized system, which is robust to polarizing perturbations, match those of the original ODE model and justify its agreement with real-world data. The resulting predictions highlight possible causes of social shift and suggest future lines of research in both physics and sociology.

Aging-related limit of exercise efficacy on motor decline

PubMed Central

Arnold, Jennifer C.; Cantu, Mark A.; Kasanga, Ella A.; Nejtek, Vicki A.; Papa, Evan V.; Bugnariu, Nicoleta; Salvatore, Michael F.

2017-01-01

Identifying lifestyle strategies and allied neurobiological mechanisms that reduce aging-related motor impairment is imperative, given the accelerating number of retirees and increased life expectancy. A physically active lifestyle prior to old age can reduce risk of debilitating motor decline. However, if exercise is initiated after motor decline has begun in the lifespan, it is unknown if aging itself may impose a limit on exercise efficacy to decelerate further aging-related motor decline. In Brown-Norway/Fischer 344 F1 hybrid (BNF) rats, locomotor activity begins to decrease in middle age (12–18 months). One mechanism of aging-related motor decline may be decreased expression of GDNF family receptor, GFRα-1, which is decreased in substantia nigra (SN) between 12 and 30 months old. Moderate exercise, beginning at 18 months old, increases nigral GFRα-1 and tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) expression within 2 months. In aged rats, replenishing aging-related loss of GFRα-1 in SN increases TH in SN alone and locomotor activity. A moderate exercise regimen was initiated in sedentary male BNF rats in a longitudinal study to evaluate if exercise could attenuate aging-related motor decline when initiated at two different ages in the latter half of the lifespan (18 or 24 months old). Motor decline was reversed in the 18-, but not 24-month-old, cohort. However, exercise efficacy in the 18-month-old group was reduced as the rats reached 27 months old. GFRα-1 expression was not increased in either cohort. These studies suggest exercise can decelerate motor decline when begun in the latter half of the lifespan, but its efficacy may be limited by age of initiation. Decreased plasticity of GFRα-1 expression following exercise may limit its efficacy to reverse motor decline. PMID:29176896

Aging-related limit of exercise efficacy on motor decline.

PubMed

Arnold, Jennifer C; Cantu, Mark A; Kasanga, Ella A; Nejtek, Vicki A; Papa, Evan V; Bugnariu, Nicoleta; Salvatore, Michael F

2017-01-01

Identifying lifestyle strategies and allied neurobiological mechanisms that reduce aging-related motor impairment is imperative, given the accelerating number of retirees and increased life expectancy. A physically active lifestyle prior to old age can reduce risk of debilitating motor decline. However, if exercise is initiated after motor decline has begun in the lifespan, it is unknown if aging itself may impose a limit on exercise efficacy to decelerate further aging-related motor decline. In Brown-Norway/Fischer 344 F1 hybrid (BNF) rats, locomotor activity begins to decrease in middle age (12-18 months). One mechanism of aging-related motor decline may be decreased expression of GDNF family receptor, GFRα-1, which is decreased in substantia nigra (SN) between 12 and 30 months old. Moderate exercise, beginning at 18 months old, increases nigral GFRα-1 and tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) expression within 2 months. In aged rats, replenishing aging-related loss of GFRα-1 in SN increases TH in SN alone and locomotor activity. A moderate exercise regimen was initiated in sedentary male BNF rats in a longitudinal study to evaluate if exercise could attenuate aging-related motor decline when initiated at two different ages in the latter half of the lifespan (18 or 24 months old). Motor decline was reversed in the 18-, but not 24-month-old, cohort. However, exercise efficacy in the 18-month-old group was reduced as the rats reached 27 months old. GFRα-1 expression was not increased in either cohort. These studies suggest exercise can decelerate motor decline when begun in the latter half of the lifespan, but its efficacy may be limited by age of initiation. Decreased plasticity of GFRα-1 expression following exercise may limit its efficacy to reverse motor decline.

Declining mortality from smoking in the United States.

PubMed

Rodu, Brad; Cole, Philip

2007-07-01

The proportion of Americans who smoke cigarettes has declined 50% since 1965. The effect on mortality of this considerable reduction has received little attention and is described in this study. U.S. national data were used to enumerate current, former, and never-smokers aged 35 years or older in 1987 and 2002. Mortality rate ratios were used to estimate smoking-attributable deaths among these groups, and corresponding age-adjusted smoking-attributable mortality rates (SAMRs) were calculated. There were 402,000 deaths attributable to smoking in 1987 and 322,000 in 2002. The SAMR for men aged 35 years or more was 556 deaths per 100,000 person-years in 1987, accounting for 24% of all male deaths. By 2002 the SAMR declined 41% to 329 and accounted for only 17% of deaths. The SAMR for women in 1987 was 175, accounting for 12% of deaths. By 2002 the SAMR among women had declined 30% to 122, representing 9% of deaths. The U.S. mortality rate attributable to smoking declined about 35% between 1987 and 2002. The impact of smoking on American society will diminish even further in the foreseeable future as smoking prevalence continues its decline among men and women.

Progressive decline of decision-making performances during multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Simioni, Samanta; Ruffieux, Christiane; Kleeberg, Joerg; Bruggimann, Laure; du Pasquier, Renaud A; Annoni, Jean-Marie; Schluep, Myriam

2009-03-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate longitudinally, using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), the dynamics of decision-making capacity at a two-year interval (median: 2.1 years) in a group of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) (n = 70) and minor neurological disability [Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) < or = 2.5 at baseline]. Cognition (memory, executive functions, attention), behavior, handicap, and perceived health status were also investigated. Standardized change scores [(score at retest-score at baseline)/standard deviation of baseline score] were computed. Results showed that IGT performances decreased from baseline to retest (from 0.3, SD = 0.4 to 0.1, SD = 0.3, p = .005). MS patients who worsened in the IGT were more likely to show a decreased perceived health status and emotional well-being (SEP-59; p = .05 for both). Relapsing rate, disability progression, cognitive, and behavioral changes were not associated with decreased IGT performances. In conclusion, decline in decision making can appear as an isolated deficit in MS.

Geomorphic controls on elevational gradients of species richness.

PubMed

Bertuzzo, Enrico; Carrara, Francesco; Mari, Lorenzo; Altermatt, Florian; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-02-16

Elevational gradients of biodiversity have been widely investigated, and yet a clear interpretation of the biotic and abiotic factors that determine how species richness varies with elevation is still elusive. In mountainous landscapes, habitats at different elevations are characterized by different areal extent and connectivity properties, key drivers of biodiversity, as predicted by metacommunity theory. However, most previous studies directly correlated species richness to elevational gradients of potential drivers, thus neglecting the interplay between such gradients and the environmental matrix. Here, we investigate the role of geomorphology in shaping patterns of species richness. We develop a spatially explicit zero-sum metacommunity model where species have an elevation-dependent fitness and otherwise neutral traits. Results show that ecological dynamics over complex terrains lead to the null expectation of a hump-shaped elevational gradient of species richness, a pattern widely observed empirically. Local species richness is found to be related to the landscape elevational connectivity, as quantified by a newly proposed metric that applies tools of complex network theory to measure the closeness of a site to others with similar habitat. Our theoretical results suggest clear geomorphic controls on elevational gradients of species richness and support the use of the landscape elevational connectivity as a null model for the analysis of the distribution of biodiversity.

Geomorphic controls on elevational gradients of species richness

PubMed Central

Bertuzzo, Enrico; Carrara, Francesco; Mari, Lorenzo; Altermatt, Florian; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-01-01

Elevational gradients of biodiversity have been widely investigated, and yet a clear interpretation of the biotic and abiotic factors that determine how species richness varies with elevation is still elusive. In mountainous landscapes, habitats at different elevations are characterized by different areal extent and connectivity properties, key drivers of biodiversity, as predicted by metacommunity theory. However, most previous studies directly correlated species richness to elevational gradients of potential drivers, thus neglecting the interplay between such gradients and the environmental matrix. Here, we investigate the role of geomorphology in shaping patterns of species richness. We develop a spatially explicit zero-sum metacommunity model where species have an elevation-dependent fitness and otherwise neutral traits. Results show that ecological dynamics over complex terrains lead to the null expectation of a hump-shaped elevational gradient of species richness, a pattern widely observed empirically. Local species richness is found to be related to the landscape elevational connectivity, as quantified by a newly proposed metric that applies tools of complex network theory to measure the closeness of a site to others with similar habitat. Our theoretical results suggest clear geomorphic controls on elevational gradients of species richness and support the use of the landscape elevational connectivity as a null model for the analysis of the distribution of biodiversity. PMID:26831107

Resistance and resilience of microbial communities--temporal and spatial insurance against perturbations.

PubMed

Baho, Didier L; Peter, Hannes; Tranvik, Lars J

2012-09-01

Bacteria play fundamental roles for many ecosystem processes; however, little empirical evidence is available on how environmental perturbations affect their composition and function. We investigated how spatial and temporal refuges affect the resistance and resilience of a freshwater bacterioplankton community upon a salinity pulse perturbation in continuous cultures. Attachment to a surface avoided the flushing out of cells and enabled re-colonization of the liquid phase after the perturbation, hence serving as a temporal refuge. A spatial refuge was established by introduction of bacteria from an undisturbed reservoir upstream of the continuous culture vessel, acting analogous to a regional species pool in a metacommunity. The salinity pulse affected bacterial community composition and the rates of respiration and the pattern of potential substrate utilization as well as the correlation between composition and function. Compared with the no-refuge treatment, the temporal refuge shortened return to pre-perturbation conditions, indicating enhanced community resilience. Composition and function were less disturbed in the treatment providing a spatial refuge, suggesting higher resistance. Our results highlight that spatial and temporal dynamics in general and refuges in particular need to be considered for conceptual progress in how microbial metacommunities are shaped by perturbations. © 2012 Society for Applied Microbiology and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

An Evidence-Based Construction of the Models of Decline of Functioning. Part 1: Two Major Models of Decline of Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okawa, Yayoi; Nakamura, Shigemi; Kudo, Minako; Ueda, Satoshi

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study is to confirm the working hypothesis on two major models of functioning decline and two corresponding models of rehabilitation program in an older population through detailed interviews with the persons who have functioning declines and on-the-spot observations of key activities on home visits. A total of 542…

Ohia forest decline: its spread and severity in Hawaii

Treesearch

Edwin Q. P. Petteys; Robert E. Burgan; Robert E. Nelson

1975-01-01

Ohia forest decline–its severity and rate of spread–was studied by aerial photographic techniques on a 197,000-acre (80,000-ha) portion of the island of Hawaii. In 1954, only 300 acres (121 ha) showed signs of severe decline; by 1972, the acreage of severely affected forest had increased to 85,200 acres (34,480 ha). Rate of decline and current severity were related to...

Cognitive decline in Parkinson disease

PubMed Central

Aarsland, Dag; Creese, Byron; Politis, Marios; Chaudhuri, K. Ray; ffytche, Dominic H.; Weintraub, Daniel; Ballard, Clive

2017-01-01

Dementia is a frequent problem encountered in advanced stages of Parkinson disease (PD). In recent years, research has focused on the pre-dementia stages of cognitive impairment in PD, including mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Several longitudinal studies have shown that MCI is a harbinger of dementia in PD, although the course is variable, and stabilization of cognition — or even reversal to normal cognition — is not uncommon. In addition to limbic and cortical spread of Lewy pathology, several other mechanisms are likely to contribute to cognitive decline in PD, and a variety of biomarker studies, some using novel structural and functional imaging techniques, have documented in vivo brain changes associated with cognitive impairment. The evidence consistently suggests that low cerebrospinal fluid levels of amyloid-β42, a marker of comorbid Alzheimer disease (AD), predict future cognitive decline and dementia in PD. Emerging genetic evidence indicates that in addition to the APOE*ε4 allele (an established risk factor for AD), GBA mutations and SCNA mutations and triplications are associated with cognitive decline in PD, whereas the findings are mixed for MAPT polymorphisms. Cognitive enhancing medications have some effect in PD dementia, but no convincing evidence that progression from MCI to dementia can be delayed or prevented is available, although cognitive training has shown promising results. PMID:28257128

Historical amphibian declines and extinctions in Brazil linked to chytridiomycosis

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Tamilie; Becker, C. Guilherme

2017-01-01

The recent increase in emerging fungal diseases is causing unprecedented threats to biodiversity. The origin of spread of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a matter of continued debate. To date, the historical amphibian declines in Brazil could not be attributed to chytridiomycosis; the high diversity of hosts coupled with the presence of several Bd lineages predating the reported declines raised the hypothesis that a hypervirulent Bd genotype spread from Brazil to other continents causing the recent global amphibian crisis. We tested for a spatio-temporal overlap between Bd and areas of historical amphibian population declines and extinctions in Brazil. A spatio-temporal convergence between Bd and declines would support the hypothesis that Brazilian amphibians were not adapted to Bd prior to the reported declines, thus weakening the hypothesis that Brazil was the global origin of Bd emergence. Alternatively, a lack of spatio-temporal association between Bd and frog declines would indicate an evolution of host resistance in Brazilian frogs predating Bd's global emergence, further supporting Brazil as the potential origin of the Bd panzootic. Here, we Bd-screened over 30 000 museum-preserved tadpoles collected in Brazil between 1930 and 2015 and overlaid spatio-temporal Bd data with areas of historical amphibian declines. We detected an increase in the proportion of Bd-infected tadpoles during the peak of amphibian declines (1979–1987). We also found that clusters of Bd-positive samples spatio-temporally overlapped with most records of amphibian declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Our findings indicate that Brazil is post epizootic for chytridiomycosis and provide another piece to the puzzle to explain the origin of Bd globally. PMID:28179514

Historical amphibian declines and extinctions in Brazil linked to chytridiomycosis.

PubMed

Carvalho, Tamilie; Becker, C Guilherme; Toledo, Luís Felipe

2017-02-08

The recent increase in emerging fungal diseases is causing unprecedented threats to biodiversity. The origin of spread of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) is a matter of continued debate. To date, the historical amphibian declines in Brazil could not be attributed to chytridiomycosis; the high diversity of hosts coupled with the presence of several Bd lineages predating the reported declines raised the hypothesis that a hypervirulent Bd genotype spread from Brazil to other continents causing the recent global amphibian crisis. We tested for a spatio-temporal overlap between Bd and areas of historical amphibian population declines and extinctions in Brazil. A spatio-temporal convergence between Bd and declines would support the hypothesis that Brazilian amphibians were not adapted to Bd prior to the reported declines, thus weakening the hypothesis that Brazil was the global origin of Bd emergence. Alternatively, a lack of spatio-temporal association between Bd and frog declines would indicate an evolution of host resistance in Brazilian frogs predating Bd 's global emergence , further supporting Brazil as the potential origin of the Bd panzootic. Here, we Bd -screened over 30 000 museum-preserved tadpoles collected in Brazil between 1930 and 2015 and overlaid spatio-temporal Bd data with areas of historical amphibian declines. We detected an increase in the proportion of Bd -infected tadpoles during the peak of amphibian declines (1979-1987). We also found that clusters of Bd -positive samples spatio-temporally overlapped with most records of amphibian declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Our findings indicate that Brazil is post epizootic for chytridiomycosis and provide another piece to the puzzle to explain the origin of Bd globally. © 2017 The Author(s).

Local and global influences on population declines of coastal waders: Purple Sandpiper Calidris maritima numbers in the Moray Firth, Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summers, Ron W.; Foster, Simon; Swann, Bob; Etheridge, Brian

2012-05-01

Declines in numbers by several wader species in Britain have been linked to climate change, but the mechanism for the declines has rarely been explored. Britain lies at the northern end of the East Atlantic Flyway, and supports 1.3 million out of the Flyway's 8.5 million coastal waders (Charadrii) in winter and the Purple Sandpiper is one of the species whose numbers have declined. Here, we examine the dynamics of the decline as observed in the Moray Firth, northeast Scotland, investigating whether the decline was due to poorer apparent survival (return rate) or poorer recruitment of young birds. The maximum number in the Moray Firth declined from 860 in 1987/88 to 236 in 2006/07, with some increase during winters 2007/08 and 2008/09. At the three main high-tide roosts (Balintore, Lossiemouth and Buckie) the maximum combined number declined from 574 to 90. Changes in survival and recruitment (percentage of first-year birds) were examined at these roosts from captured samples, which were ringed and recaptured. There were no significant changes between winters in survival rates, nor were there differences between the survival rates of age groups (first-year and adult) or bill size groups, which represented birds of different sex and breeding origin. Annual survival estimates for the three roosts ranged from 72 to 77%. The percentage of first-year birds varied among roosts and years; the lowest values were during the late 1980s/early 1990s and early 2000s. A free-running population model incorporating varying percentages of first-year birds and constant mortality for each roost provided a plausible explanation for the decline. Although modelled numbers followed the observed pattern, a discrepancy in one year was carried forward in subsequent years, so that the fit with the observed numbers was parallel rather than similar. However, it seems that the decline in numbers was largely due to poorer recruitment. We discuss whether breeding success had declined, whether the

Agricultural Decline and Access to Food in Ghana.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tabatabai, Hamid

1988-01-01

Examines the causes and impacts of agricultural decline in Ghana. Presents a macroeconomic overview and discusses the nature of decline. Emphasizes the roles of prices and migration. Examines changes in incomes and access to food as both a result and a cause of poor performance in agriculture. (CH)

Brain Network Changes and Memory Decline in Aging

PubMed Central

Beason-Held, Lori L.; Hohman, Timothy J.; Venkatraman, Vijay; An, Yang; Resnick, Susan M.

2016-01-01

One theory of age-related cognitive decline proposes that changes within the default mode network (DMN) of the brain impact the ability to successfully perform cognitive operations. To investigate this theory, we examined functional covariance within brain networks using regional cerebral blood flow data, measured by 15O-water PET, from 99 participants (mean baseline age 68.6 ±7.5) in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging collected over a 7.4 year period. The sample was divided in tertiles based on longitudinal performance on a verbal recognition memory task administered during scanning, and functional covariance was compared between the upper (improvers) and lower (decliners) tertile groups. The DMN and verbal memory networks (VMN) were then examined during the verbal memory scan condition. For each network, group differences in node-to-network coherence and individual node-to-node covariance relationships were assessed at baseline and in change over time. Compared with improvers, decliners showed differences in node-to-network coherence and in node-to-node relationships in the DMN but not the VMN during verbal memory. These DMN differences reflected greater covariance with better task performance at baseline and both increasing and declining covariance with declining task performance over time for decliners. When examined during the resting state alone, the direction of change in DMN covariance was similar to that seen during task performance, but node-to-node relationships differed from those observed during the task condition. These results suggest that disengagement of DMN components during task performance is not essential for successful cognitive performance as previously proposed. Instead, a proper balance in network processes may be needed to support optimal task performance. PMID:27319002

Depressed Mood Mediates Decline in Cognitive Processing Speed in Caregivers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vitaliano, Peter P.; Zhang, Jianping; Young, Heather M.; Caswell, Lisa W.; Scanlan, James M.; Echeverria, Diana

2009-01-01

Purpose: Very few studies have examined cognitive decline in caregivers versus noncaregivers, and only 1 study has examined mediators of such decline. We evaluated the relationship between caregiver status and decline on the digit symbol test (DST; a measure of processing speed, attention, cognitive-motor translation, and visual scanning) and…

The utility of estimating population-level trajectories of terminal wellbeing decline within a growth mixture modelling framework.

PubMed

Burns, R A; Byles, J; Magliano, D J; Mitchell, P; Anstey, K J

2015-03-01

Mortality-related decline has been identified across multiple domains of human functioning, including mental health and wellbeing. The current study utilised a growth mixture modelling framework to establish whether a single population-level trajectory best describes mortality-related changes in both wellbeing and mental health, or whether subpopulations report quite different mortality-related changes. Participants were older-aged (M = 69.59 years; SD = 8.08 years) deceased females (N = 1,862) from the dynamic analyses to optimise ageing (DYNOPTA) project. Growth mixture models analysed participants' responses on measures of mental health and wellbeing for up to 16 years from death. Multi-level models confirmed overall terminal decline and terminal drop in both mental health and wellbeing. However, modelling data from the same participants within a latent class growth mixture framework indicated that most participants reported stability in mental health (90.3 %) and wellbeing (89.0 %) in the years preceding death. Whilst confirming other population-level analyses which support terminal decline and drop hypotheses in both mental health and wellbeing, we subsequently identified that most of this effect is driven by a small, but significant minority of the population. Instead, most individuals report stable levels of mental health and wellbeing in the years preceding death.

[The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

PubMed

Banguero, H

1983-05-01

This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

Recent fertility declines in China and India: a comparative view.

PubMed

Kulkarni, P M; Rani, S

1995-12-01

This paper compares fertility transitions in China and parts of India. It is argued that China experienced a more rapid and more "impressive" decline than that of India. Socioeconomic conditions in China were more conducive to fertility decline. Kerala State in India experienced a similar decline as China but at a slower pace. The birth control campaign in China is credited with an important role in speeding the transition. It is posited that the political and administrative system and economic conditions in India are not compatible with the Chinese style program strategies. Both countries had similar fertility levels in the immediate post-revolutionary period. The most rapid decline occurred during the 1970s in China. The fertility transition was almost completed by 1981. In India, the total fertility rate (TFR) declined by only 1 point between the 1950s and 1981. In China TFR declined over 3 points during 1970-81. 76.7% of the decline in China during 1970-81 is attributed to a marked decline in marital fertility in all age groups, with the exception of ages 15-19 years. The decline in India is attributed to the decline in marital fertility. Female age at marriage rose in India, but less "impressively." In 1981 the mean age at marriage in India was 18.4 years, but it was 22.8 years in China. Marital fertility among women aged older than 30 years was considerably lower in China. Both countries experienced an increase in literacy, but in China the level of literacy was much greater. Both countries faced food shortages, but China improved food availability and calorie consumption per capita. Health services also improved in both countries, but the Chinese system of "barefoot" doctors brought services with easier reach of rural populations. Political structures differed in their dominance and organization. Family planning programs were introduced earlier in India, but prevalence was 64.4% in China in 1981 and about 22% in India.

Perceived Personal Control Buffers Terminal Decline in Well-Being

PubMed Central

Gerstorf, Denis; Heckhausen, Jutta; Ram, Nilam; Infurna, Frank J.; Schupp, Juergen; Wagner, Gert G.

2015-01-01

Recent research has repeatedly demonstrated that well-being typically evinces precipitous deterioration close to the end of life. However, the determinants of individual differences in these terminal declines are note well understood. In this study, we examine the role of perceived personal control as a potential buffer against steep terminal declines in well-being. We applied single- and multi-phase growth models to up to 25-year longitudinal data from 1,641 now deceased participants of the national German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP; age at death: M = 74 years; SD = 14; 49% women). Results revealed that perceiving more personal control over one’s life was related to subsequently higher late-life well-being, less severe rates of late-life declines, and a later onset of terminal decline. Associations were independent of key predictors of mortality, including age, gender, SES, and disability. These findings suggest that feeling in control may ameliorate steep end-of-life decline in well-being. We also discuss scenarios for when and how processes of goal disengagement and giving up control may become beneficial. PMID:25244480

Fragmentation alters stream fish community structure in dendritic ecological networks.

PubMed

Perkin, Joshuah S; Gido, Keith B

2012-12-01

Effects of fragmentation on the ecology of organisms occupying dendritic ecological networks (DENs) have recently been described through both conceptual and mathematical models, but few hypotheses have been tested in complex, real-world ecosystems. Stream fishes provide a model system for assessing effects of fragmentation on the structure of communities occurring within DENs, including how fragmentation alters metacommunity dynamics and biodiversity. A recently developed habitat-availability measure, the "dendritic connectivity index" (DCI), allows for assigning quantitative measures of connectivity in DENs regardless of network extent or complexity, and might be used to predict fish community response to fragmentation. We characterized stream fish community structure in 12 DENs in the Great Plains, USA, during periods of dynamic (summer) and muted (fall) discharge regimes to test the DCI as a predictive model of fish community response to fragmentation imposed by road crossings. Results indicated that fish communities in stream segments isolated by road crossings had reduced species richness (alpha diversity) relative to communities that maintained connectivity with the surrounding DEN during summer and fall. Furthermore, isolated communities had greater dissimilarity (beta diversity) to downstream sites notisolated by road crossings during summer and fall. Finally, dissimilarity among communities within DENs decreased as a function of increased habitat connectivity (measured using the DCI) for summer and fall, suggesting that communities within highly connected DENs tend to be more homogeneous. Our results indicate that the DCI is sensitive to community effects of fragmentation in riverscapes and might be used by managers to predict ecological responses to changes in habitat connectivity. Moreover, our findings illustrate that relating structural connectivity of riverscapes to functional connectivity among communities might aid in maintaining metacommunity

Cued memory decline in biomarker-defined preclinical Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Papp, Kathryn V; Rentz, Dorene M; Mormino, Elizabeth C; Schultz, Aaron P; Amariglio, Rebecca E; Quiroz, Yakeel; Johnson, Keith A; Sperling, Reisa A

2017-04-11

To determine whether a decline in cued recall is observable in the preclinical stage of Alzheimer disease (AD) in clinically normal older adults with elevated β-amyloid (Aβ) burden on PET imaging. Clinically normal older adults underwent baseline neuroimaging (PET to assess Aβ +/- status and MRI) and annual neuropsychological testing. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the relative risk of cued memory decline (drop of 1, 2, 3, or 4 points on the total score of the Free and Cued Selective Reminding Test) in relation to neuroimaging measures, functional status, age, sex, and education. A total of 276 older adults (Clinical Dementia Rating = 0, mean Mini-Mental State Examination score = 29 ± 1.06) were followed up for a mean of 3.6 ± 1.2 years. Despite the infrequency of cued memory decline (only 19% of participants scored ≤46/48 in total recall by year 3), Aβ + participants were 3.55 times (95% confidence interval = 1.77-7.12) more likely to exhibit decline in total recall (≤46/48) compared with their Aβ - peers. Furthermore, Aβ + participants who scored ≤46/48 had smaller hippocampal volumes ( t = 3.37, p = 0.001) and evidence of early functional decline, i.e., greater risk of progression to global Clinical Dementia Rating of 0.5 (χ 2 = 14.30, p < 0.001), compared with their Aβ + peers with intact total recall. Cued memory decline in healthy older adults may be particularly indicative of Aβ-related decline during the preclinical stage of AD and useful for identifying Aβ + clinically normal individuals at greatest risk of short-term clinical progression. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

Cued memory decline in biomarker-defined preclinical Alzheimer disease

PubMed Central

Rentz, Dorene M.; Mormino, Elizabeth C.; Schultz, Aaron P.; Amariglio, Rebecca E.; Quiroz, Yakeel; Johnson, Keith A.; Sperling, Reisa A.

2017-01-01

Objective: To determine whether a decline in cued recall is observable in the preclinical stage of Alzheimer disease (AD) in clinically normal older adults with elevated β-amyloid (Aβ) burden on PET imaging. Methods: Clinically normal older adults underwent baseline neuroimaging (PET to assess Aβ+/− status and MRI) and annual neuropsychological testing. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the relative risk of cued memory decline (drop of 1, 2, 3, or 4 points on the total score of the Free and Cued Selective Reminding Test) in relation to neuroimaging measures, functional status, age, sex, and education. Results: A total of 276 older adults (Clinical Dementia Rating = 0, mean Mini-Mental State Examination score = 29 ± 1.06) were followed up for a mean of 3.6 ± 1.2 years. Despite the infrequency of cued memory decline (only 19% of participants scored ≤46/48 in total recall by year 3), Aβ+ participants were 3.55 times (95% confidence interval = 1.77–7.12) more likely to exhibit decline in total recall (≤46/48) compared with their Aβ− peers. Furthermore, Aβ+ participants who scored ≤46/48 had smaller hippocampal volumes (t = 3.37, p = 0.001) and evidence of early functional decline, i.e., greater risk of progression to global Clinical Dementia Rating of 0.5 (χ2 = 14.30, p < 0.001), compared with their Aβ+ peers with intact total recall. Conclusions: Cued memory decline in healthy older adults may be particularly indicative of Aβ-related decline during the preclinical stage of AD and useful for identifying Aβ+ clinically normal individuals at greatest risk of short-term clinical progression. PMID:28283594

Associations between spontaneous meal initiations and blood glucose dynamics in overweight men in negative energy balance.

PubMed

Kovacs, Eva M R; Westerterp-Plantenga, Margriet S; Saris, Wim H M; Melanson, Kathleen J; Goossens, Ine; Geurten, Peter; Brouns, Fred

2002-01-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate associations between spontaneous meal initiations and blood glucose dynamics in overweight male subjects in negative energy balance. In a randomized crossover design, fifteen overweight male subjects (BMI 28.6 (SD 1.8 kg/m2) participated in three treatments, each of which consisted of 2 weeks consuming a low-energy diet followed by a test of voluntary food ingestion in the absence of time-related cues. The low-energy diet consisted of three daily meals (947 kJ) which were either semi-solid with or without 2.5 g guar gum, or solid, and a dinner of subject's own choice. During the time-blinded test, on the first, second, and third meal initiation subjects ingested a low-energy meal corresponding to that used during the preceding weeks. Changes in blood glucose were monitored on-line. Associations between spontaneous meal initiations and blood glucose dynamics were determined using the chi2 test. No difference was found between treatments in the occurrence of postabsorptive and postprandial declines in blood glucose or in associations between meal initiations and blood glucose dynamics. Postprandial dynamic blood glucose declines were associated with meal initiation (chi2 26 8, P<0.00 1), but postabsorptive and postprandial transient declines were not. In overweight subjects, the usual association between transient declines and spontaneous meal initiation was completely absent in negative energy balance.

Neuropsychological tests for predicting cognitive decline in older adults

PubMed Central

Baerresen, Kimberly M; Miller, Karen J; Hanson, Eric R; Miller, Justin S; Dye, Richelin V; Hartman, Richard E; Vermeersch, David; Small, Gary W

2015-01-01

Summary Aim To determine neuropsychological tests likely to predict cognitive decline. Methods A sample of nonconverters (n = 106) was compared with those who declined in cognitive status (n = 24). Significant univariate logistic regression prediction models were used to create multivariate logistic regression models to predict decline based on initial neuropsychological testing. Results Rey–Osterrieth Complex Figure Test (RCFT) Retention predicted conversion to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) while baseline Buschke Delay predicted conversion to Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Due to group sample size differences, additional analyses were conducted using a subsample of demographically matched nonconverters. Analyses indicated RCFT Retention predicted conversion to MCI and AD, and Buschke Delay predicted conversion to AD. Conclusion Results suggest RCFT Retention and Buschke Delay may be useful in predicting cognitive decline. PMID:26107318

Declining Resources, Targeted Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levenson, Nathan

2011-01-01

As resources shrink, the need to do more with less becomes critical. As a business CEO turned superintendent, this author has seen firsthand that many options exist, but none are fun, easy, or politically rewarding. He contends that the challenge of managing declining resources is not the choice between doing less for children or discovering new…

Examining differences between recovered and declining endangered species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Abbitt, Robbyn J.F.; Scott, J. Michael

2001-01-01

Between 1973 and 1999, 43 species in the United States were reclassified from endangered to threatened or removed entirely from the Endangered Species List. Of these, 23 were identified as recovered. In 1999 the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service ( USFWS) published a list of 33 additional species for possible reclassification and/or delisting. We initiated this study to examine why some endangered species recover but others continue to decline and to identify differences in management activities between these two groups. We defined recovered/recovering species as previously recovered species and the additional recovered/recovering species listed by the USFWS. We defined declining species as those identified as declining in the most recent USFWS Report to Congress. Information on recovered/recovering and declining species was gathered from relevant literature, recovery plans, U.S. Federal Register documents, and individuals responsible for the recovery management of each species. We used this information to examine (1) the percentage of current and historic range covered by management activities; (2) threats affecting the species; (3) population sizes at the time of listing; (4) current versus historic range size; and (5) percentage of recovery management objectives completed. Although few statistical analyses provided significant results, those that did suggest the following differences between recovered/recovering and declining species: (1) recovered/recovering species face threats that are easier to address; (2) recovered/recovering species occupy a greater percentage of their historic range; and (3) recovered/recovering species have a greater percentage of their recovery management objectives completed. Those species with threats easier to address and that occupy a greater percentage of their historic range are recovered/recovering. In contrast, declining species face threats more difficult to address and occupy significantly less of their historic range. If this

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

DOE PAGES

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; ...

2017-02-08

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forestmore » and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.« less

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forestmore » and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.« less

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; Veblen, Thomas T; Smith, Jeremy M.; Kueppers, Lara M.

2017-01-01

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively.Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers.Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine.Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

Developmental decline in height growth in Douglas-fir.

Treesearch

Barbara J. Bond; Nicole M. Czarnomski; Clifton Cooper; Michael E. Day; Michael S. Greenwood

2007-01-01

The characteristic decline in height growth that occurs over a tree's lifespan is often called "age-related decline." But is the reduction in height growth in aging trees a function of age or of size? We grafted shoot tips across different ages and sizes of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) trees to determine whether...

Two classes of fast-declining Type Ia supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhawan, Suhail; Leibundgut, B.; Spyromilio, J.; Blondin, S.

2017-06-01

We aim to characterise a sample of fast-declining Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) using their bolometric and near-infrared (NIR) properties. Based on these properties, we find that fast-declining SN Ia separate into two categories based on their bolometric and NIR properties. The peak bolometric luminosity (Lmax), the phase of the first maximum relative to the optical, the NIR peak luminosity, and the occurrence of a second maximum in the NIR distinguish a group of very faint SN Ia. Fast-declining supernovae show a large range of peak bolometric luminosities (Lmax differing by up to a factor of 8). All fast-declining SN Ia with Lmax < 0.3× 1043 erg s-1 are spectroscopically classified as 91bg-like and show only a single NIR peak. SNe with Lmax > 0.5× 1043 erg s-1 appear to smoothly connect to normal SN Ia. The total ejecta mass (Mej) values for SNe with enough late time data are ≲1 M⊙, indicating a sub-Chandrasekhar mass progenitor for these SNe.

Fertility Decline in Rural China: A Comparative Analysis

PubMed Central

Harrell, Stevan; Yuesheng, Wang; Hua, Han; Santos, Gonçalo D.; Yingying, Zhou

2014-01-01

Many models have been proposed to explain both the rapidity of China’s fertility decline after the 1960s and the differential timing of the decline in different places. In particular, scholars argue over whether deliberate policies of fertility control, institutional changes, or general modernization factors contribute most to changes in fertility behavior. Here the authors adopt an ethnographically grounded behavioral–institutional approach to analyze qualitative and quantitative data from three different rural settings: Xiaoshan County in Zhejiang (East China), Ci County in Hebei (North China), and Yingde County in Guangdong (South China). The authors show that no one set of factors explains the differential timing and rapidity of the fertility decline in the three areas; rather they must explain differential timing by a combination of differences in social–cultural environments (e.g., spread of education, reproductive ideologies, and gender relations) and politico-economic conditions (e.g., economic development, birth planning campaigns, and collective systems of labor organization) during the early phases of the fertility decline. PMID:21319442

Ulysses orbit determination at high declinations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcelrath, Timothy P.; Lewis, George D.

1995-01-01

The trajectory of the Ulysses spacecraft caused its geocentric declination to exceed 60 deg South for over two months during the Fall of 1994, permitting continuous tracking from a single site. During this time, spacecraft operations constraints allowed only Doppler tracking data to be collected, and imposed a high radial acceleration uncertainty on the orbit determination process. The unusual aspects of this situation have motivated a re-examination of the Hamilton-Melbourne results, which have been used before to estimate the information content of Doppler tracking for trajectories closer to the ecliptic. The addition of an acceleration term to this equation is found to significantly increase the declination uncertainty for symmetric passes. In addition, a simple means is described to transform the symmetric results when the tracking pass is non-symmetric. The analytical results are then compared against numerical studies of this tracking geometry and found to be in good agreement for the angular uncertainties. The results of this analysis are applicable to the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) mission and to any other missions with high declination trajectories, as well as to missions using short tracking passes and/or one-way Doppler data.

An hypothesis: the dramatic decline in heart attacks in the United States is temporally related to the decline in duodenal ulcer disease and Helicobacter pylori infection.

PubMed

Hughes, William S

2014-06-01

Studies of autopsies of military members dying in three US wars indicate that the prevalence of atherosclerosis in successive cohorts of healthy young men and women has dramatically decreased over the past half century. The objective of this study was to compare the decline in the prevalence of atherosclerosis and myocardial infarction with previously published studies on the decline in the prevalence of duodenal ulcer. A plot of the prevalence of coronary atherosclerosis and the prevalence of myocardial infarction in three cohorts of young men and women born from 1930 to 1980 was constructed. The figure shows a marked decline in prevalence in atherosclerosis beginning in a military cohort born around 1930 and a similar marked decline in prevalence of myocardial infarction in the US population beginning in 1970. In published studies duodenal ulcer began to decline in prevalence in 1960. As duodenal ulcers began to occur at age 30 and myocardial infarctions began to occur at age 40 at the time of peak prevalence, the cohort born in 1930 was the first to experience a decline in prevalence of both duodenal ulcer and heart attacks. The study shows that the decline in heart attacks is temporally related to the decline in duodenal ulcer and by inference, Helicobacter pylori infection. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Have international transportation costs declined?

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-07-01

Have international transportation costs declined? This paper provides a detailed accounting of the time-series pattern of shipping costs. Direct evidence from an eclectic mix of data shows that ocean freight rates have increased while air freight rat...

Assessment of Loblolly Pine Decline in Central Alabama

Treesearch

Nolan J. Hess; William J. Otrosina; Emily A. Carter; Jim R. Steinman; John P. Jones; Lori G. Eckhardt; Ann M. Weber; Charles H. Walkinshaw

2002-01-01

Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) decline has been prevalent on upland sites of central Alabama since the 1960's. The purpose of this study was to compare Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) standards and protocols with root health evaluations relative to crown, stem, and site measurements. Thirty-nine 1/6 acre plots were established on loblolly decline...

Growth decline linked to warming-induced water limitation in hemi-boreal forests.

PubMed

Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Guo, Dali; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Badmaeva, Natalya K; Sandanov, Denis V

2012-01-01

Hemi-boreal forests, which make up the transition from temperate deciduous forests to boreal forests in southern Siberia, have experienced significant warming without any accompanying increase in precipitation during the last 80 years. This climatic change could have a profound impact on tree growth and on the stability of forest ecosystems in this region, but at present evidence for these impacts is lacking. In this study, we report a recent dramatic decline in the growth of hemi-boreal forests, based on ring width measurements from three dominant tree-species (Pinus sylvestris, Larix sibirica and Larix gmelinii), sampled from eight sites in the region. We found that regional tree growth has become increasingly limited by low soil water content in the pre- and early-growing season (from October of the previous year to July of the current year) over the past 80 years. A warming-induced reduction in soil water content has also increased the climate sensitivity of these three tree species. Beginning in the mid-1980s, a clear decline in growth is evident for both the pine forests and the larch forests, although there are increasing trends in the proxy of soil water use efficiencies. Our findings are consistent with those from other parts of the world and provide valuable insights into the regional carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, and should be useful for devising adaptive forest management strategies.

Potential causes for amphibian declines in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burrowes, P.A.; Joglar, R.L.; Green, David E.

2004-01-01

We monitored 11 populations of eight species of Eleutherodactylus in Puerto Rico from 1989 through 2001. We determined relative abundance of active frogs along transects established in the Caribbean National Forest (El Yunque), Carite Forest, San Lorenzo, and in the vicinity of San Juan. Three species (Eleutherodactylus karlschmidti, E. jasperi, and E. eneidae) are presumed to be extinct and eight populations of six different species of endemic Eleutherodactylus are significantly declining at elevations above 400 m. Of the many suspected causes of amphibian declines around the world, we focused on climate change and disease. Temperature and precipitation data from 1970a??2000 were analyzed to determine the general pattern of oscillations and deviations that could be correlated with amphibian declines. We examined a total of 106 tissues taken from museum specimens collected from 1961a??1978 and from live frogs in 2000. We found chytrid fungi in two species collected at El Yunque as early as 1976, this is the first report of chytrid fungus in the Caribbean. Analysis of weather data indicates a significant warming trend and an association between years with extended periods of drought and the decline of amphibians in Puerto Rico. The 1970's and 1990's, which represent the periods of amphibian extirpations and declines, were significantly drier than average. We suggest a possible synergistic interaction between drought and the pathological effect of the chytrid fungus on amphibian populations.

The decline of teacher autonomy: Tears or cheers?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Lorin W.

1987-09-01

In the United States teacher autonomy has been declining for at least a decade. This decline can be attributed in large part to three factors. First, uniform staff development programmes based on research on effective teaching have become widespread. Second, classroom observations have become an integral part of imposed teacher evaluations. Third, school principals have been called on to assume the role of `instructional leader'. While some may perceive the decline of teacher autonomy negatively, at least two benefits of this decline have been identified. First, a `common language' by which teachers can discuss the problems and potential of instruction and teaching among themselves and with school administrators is developing. Second, the likelihood that teachers will achieve a truly professional status is enhanced. Many educators write as if the natural result of a decline in teacher autonomy is standardization; that is, the cloning of teachers. This article negates such pessimism. Teacher autonomy, like many educational variables, exists along a continuum. As a consequence, a midpoint on the autonomy continuum — a balance between uniqueness and standardization, between license and responsibility — is the desirable state of affairs. Finally, autonomy should be earned by teachers, not simply given to them. In this regard, greater concern should be given to teachers' preparation for, and induction into, their roles as school teachers. Similarly, increases in autonomy should mirror increases in teacher status; status defined in terms of teacher experience, expertise, and excellence.

Inquiry into terminal decline: five objectives for future study.

PubMed

Gerstorf, Denis; Ram, Nilam

2013-10-01

Notions of terminal decline propose that late-life change is primarily driven by processes closely tied to pathology and mortality rather than chronological age. We use the rationales of longitudinal research as outlined by Baltes and Nesselroade (Baltes, P., & Nesselroade, J. [1979]. History and rationale of longitudinal research. In J. R. Nesselroade & P. Baltes (Eds.), Longitudinal research in the study of behavior and development [pp. 1-39]. San Diego, CA: Academic Press) as a framework for organizing research on terminal decline. In doing so, we note that there are relatively robust descriptions of terminal decline across a variety of different domains, as well as the extent of interindividual differences in the levels of function, rates of change, and timing of terminal decline (research rationales 1 and 2). However, there is much more to learn about the interrelations among change in different domains, the underlying mechanisms of change, and the factors that contribute to interindividual differences in change (research rationales 3-5). Needed are new study designs and analytical models that better address the structural, temporal, and causal interrelations that contribute to and protect against terminal decline.

The cause of global amphibian declines: a developmental endocrinologist's perspective.

PubMed

Hayes, T B; Falso, P; Gallipeau, S; Stice, M

2010-03-15

Greater than 70% of the world's amphibian species are in decline. We propose that there is probably not a single cause for global amphibian declines and present a three-tiered hierarchical approach that addresses interactions among and between ultimate and proximate factors that contribute to amphibian declines. There are two immediate (proximate) causes of amphibian declines: death and decreased recruitment (reproductive failure). Although much attention has focused on death, few studies have addressed factors that contribute to declines as a result of failed recruitment. Further, a great deal of attention has focused on the role of pathogens in inducing diseases that cause death, but we suggest that pathogen success is profoundly affected by four other ultimate factors: atmospheric change, environmental pollutants, habitat modification and invasive species. Environmental pollutants arise as likely important factors in amphibian declines because they have realized potential to affect recruitment. Further, many studies have documented immunosuppressive effects of pesticides, suggesting a role for environmental contaminants in increased pathogen virulence and disease rates. Increased attention to recruitment and ultimate factors that interact with pathogens is important in addressing this global crisis.

The cause of global amphibian declines: a developmental endocrinologist's perspective

PubMed Central

Hayes, T. B.; Falso, P.; Gallipeau, S.; Stice, M.

2010-01-01

Greater than 70% of the world's amphibian species are in decline. We propose that there is probably not a single cause for global amphibian declines and present a three-tiered hierarchical approach that addresses interactions among and between ultimate and proximate factors that contribute to amphibian declines. There are two immediate (proximate) causes of amphibian declines: death and decreased recruitment (reproductive failure). Although much attention has focused on death, few studies have addressed factors that contribute to declines as a result of failed recruitment. Further, a great deal of attention has focused on the role of pathogens in inducing diseases that cause death, but we suggest that pathogen success is profoundly affected by four other ultimate factors: atmospheric change, environmental pollutants, habitat modification and invasive species. Environmental pollutants arise as likely important factors in amphibian declines because they have realized potential to affect recruitment. Further, many studies have documented immunosuppressive effects of pesticides, suggesting a role for environmental contaminants in increased pathogen virulence and disease rates. Increased attention to recruitment and ultimate factors that interact with pathogens is important in addressing this global crisis. PMID:20190117

Acid-base status of upper rooting zone soil in declining and non-declining sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh) stands in Pennsylvania

Treesearch

William E. Sharpe; Troy L. Sunderland

1995-01-01

Sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh) is an important commercial tree species of the central hardwood region which is valued for its wood and maple sugar products. High elevation sugar maple stands in northcentral Pennsylvania have been in serious decline for about the last 15 years with more than 1,200 hectares of maple forest affected. The decline...

Fibroblast Growth Factor 23: A Biomarker of Kidney Function Decline.

PubMed

Drew, David A; Katz, Ronit; Kritchevsky, Stephen; Ix, Joachim H; Shlipak, Michael G; Newman, Anne B; Hoofnagle, Andy; Fried, Linda; Sarnak, Mark J; Gutierrez, Orlando M

2018-01-01

Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) is a hormone that regulates phosphorus levels and vitamin D metabolism. Previous studies have shown FGF-23 to be a risk factor for incident end-stage renal disease; however, there are less data on the association of FGF-23 with earlier kidney-related outcomes. Serum FGF-23 was assayed using an intact ELISA assay in 2,496 participants of the Healthy Aging and Body Composition Study, a cohort of well-functioning older adults. Kidney function was estimated by assaying cystatin C at baseline and years 3 and 10. The associations between FGF-23 and decline in kidney function (defined by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline ≥30% or ≥3 mL/min/year) and incident chronic kidney disease (CKD; incident eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and ≥1 mL/min/year decline) were evaluated. Models were adjusted for demographics, baseline eGFR, urine albumin/creatinine ratio, comorbidity, and serum calcium, phosphorus, 25(OH) vitamin D and parathyroid hormone. The mean (SD) age was 75 (3) years, with 52% female and 38% black. There were 405 persons with 30% decline, 702 with >3 mL/min/year decline, and 536 with incident CKD. In fully adjusted continuous models, doubling of FGF-23 concentrations was not associated with kidney function decline (OR [95% CI] = 0.98 [0.82-1.19] for ≥30% decline and OR 1.17 [95% CI 1.00-1.37] for ≥3 mL/min/year decline), or incident CKD (incident rate ratio [IRR] 1.05 [95% CI 0.91-1.22]). In adjusted quartile analysis, the highest quartile of FGF-23 was significantly associated with incident CKD (IRR 1.27 [95% CI 1.02-1.58] for highest vs. lowest quartile). Higher FGF-23 concentrations were not consistently associated with decline in kidney function or incident CKD in community-dwelling older adults. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Dropping dead: causes and consequences of vulture population declines worldwide.

PubMed

Ogada, Darcy L; Keesing, Felicia; Virani, Munir Z

2012-02-01

Vultures are nature's most successful scavengers, and they provide an array of ecological, economic, and cultural services. As the only known obligate scavengers, vultures are uniquely adapted to a scavenging lifestyle. Vultures' unique adaptations include soaring flight, keen eyesight, and extremely low pH levels in their stomachs. Presently, 14 of 23 (61%) vulture species worldwide are threatened with extinction, and the most rapid declines have occurred in the vulture-rich regions of Asia and Africa. The reasons for the population declines are varied, but poisoning or human persecution, or both, feature in the list of nearly every declining species. Deliberate poisoning of carnivores is likely the most widespread cause of vulture poisoning. In Asia, Gyps vultures have declined by >95% due to poisoning by the veterinary drug diclofenac, which was banned by regional governments in 2006. Human persecution of vultures has occurred for centuries, and shooting and deliberate poisoning are the most widely practiced activities. Ecological consequences of vulture declines include changes in community composition of scavengers at carcasses and an increased potential for disease transmission between mammalian scavengers at carcasses. There have been cultural and economic costs of vulture declines as well, particularly in Asia. In the wake of catastrophic vulture declines in Asia, regional governments, the international scientific and donor communities, and the media have given the crisis substantial attention. Even though the Asian vulture crisis focused attention on the plight of vultures worldwide, the situation for African vultures has received relatively little attention especially given the similar levels of population decline. While the Asian crisis has been largely linked to poisoning by diclofenac, vulture population declines in Africa have numerous causes, which have made conserving existing populations more difficult. And in Africa there has been little

Wild Pigs: inciting factor in southern pine decline?

Treesearch

Lori G. Eckhardt; Roger D. Menard; Stephen S. Ditchkoff

2016-01-01

During an investigation into southern pine decline at Fort Benning Georgia, the possibility of wild pigs (Sus scrofa) as an inciting factor became evident. Their rooting activity caused significant root damage on sites showing symptoms of pine decline. It was thought that perhaps the pigs may be moving around pathogenic fungi during their rooting activity in Pinus...

Cenozoic dynamics of shallow-marine biodiversity in the Western Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasuhara, M.; Iwatani, H.; Hunt, G.; Okahashi, H.; Kase, T.; Hayashi, H.; Irizuki, T.; Aguilar, Y. M.; Fernando, A. G. S.; Renema, W.

2016-12-01

Cenozoic dynamics of large-scale species diversity patterns remain poorly understood, especially for the Western Pacific, in part because of the paucity of well-dated fossil records from the tropics. Here we show the spatiotemporal dynamics of species diversity in the Western Pacific through the Cenozoic, focusing on the tropical Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA) biodiversity hotspot. We analysed well-preserved fossil ostracodes from the tropical Western Pacific and combined their diversity data with other published data from the region to reconstruct Cenozoic dynamics of species diversity in the tropical- and northwestern Pacific Ocean. We fit generalized additive models to test for differences in richness over time and across geographic regions while accounting for sample size variation among samples. Low-, mid- and high-latitude regions all show a similar diversity trajectory: diversity is low in the Eocene and Oligocene, increases from the Early Miocene to the Plio-Pleistocene but then declines to the present day. Present day high biodiversity in these regions was established during the Pliocene with a remarkable diversification at that time. Latitudinal diversity patterns are relatively flat and never show as simple decline from the tropics to higher latitudes. Western Pacific Cenozoic ostracodes exhibit a spatiotemporal pattern of species diversity that is inconsistent with the commonly reported and persistent pattern of declining diversity from the tropics to the extratropics. While this inconsistency could be interpreted as evidence that ostracodes are a contrarian clade, Atlantic ostracodes display a standard latitudinal species diversity gradient. Contrasting patterns between oceans suggests an important role for regional factors (e.g., plate tectonics and temporal geomorphological dynamics) in shaping the biodiversity of the Western Pacific.

Evaluation of invasions and declines of submersed aquatic macrophytes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chambers, P.A.; Barko, J.W.; Smith, C.S.

1993-01-01

During the past 60 yr, sightings of aquatic macrophyte species in geographic regions where they had previously not been found have occurred with increasing frequency, apparently due to both greater dispersal of the plants as a result of human activities as well as better documentation of plant distribution. Intercontinental invasions, such as Myriophyllum spicatum and Hydrilla into North America, Elodea canadensis into Europe and Elodea nuttallii, Egeria densa and Cabomba caroliniana into Japan, have generally been well documented. However, the spread of an exotic species across a continent after its initial introduction (e.g., Potamogeton crispus in North America) or the expansion of a species native to a continent into hitherto unexploited territory (e.g.,the expansion of the North American native Myriophyllum heterophyllum into New England) have received little attention. Natural declines in aquatic macrophyte communities have also received little scientific study although there are many accounts of macrophyte declines. The best-documented example comes from the marine literature where extensive declines of eelgrass (Zostera) occurred in the 1930s along the Atlantic coast due to a pathogenic marine slime mold (''wasting disease''). The aim of this workshop was to identify examples of invasions or natural declines of aquatic macrophyte species throughout the world and assess the importance of environmental factors in their control. Forty-five scientists and aquatic plant managers from ten countries participated in the workshop. Eleven of the participants contributed written evaluations of species invasions and declines in their geo-graphic region. These were distributed to registered participants prior to the meeting and served as the starting-point of workshop discussions. To address the topics raised in the working papers, the participants divided into four working groups to evaluate: 1. Environmental controls of species invasions. 2. Biotic controls of species

Decline eccentric squats increases patellar tendon loading compared to standard eccentric squats.

PubMed

Kongsgaard, M; Aagaard, P; Roikjaer, S; Olsen, D; Jensen, M; Langberg, H; Magnusson, S P

2006-08-01

Recent studies have shown excellent clinical results using eccentric squat training on a 25 degrees decline board to treat patellar tendinopathy. It remains unknown why therapeutic management of patellar tendinopathy using decline eccentric squats offer superior clinical efficacy compared to standard horizontal eccentric squats. This study aimed to compare electromyography activity, patellar tendon strain and joint angle kinematics during standard and decline eccentric squats. Thirteen subjects performed unilateral eccentric squats on flat-and a 25 degrees decline surface. During the squats, electromyography activity was obtained in eight representative muscles. Also, ankle, knee and hip joint goniometry was obtained. Additionally, patellar tendon strain was measured in vivo using ultrasonography as subjects maintained a unilateral isometric 90 degrees knee angle squat position on either flat or 25 degrees decline surface. Patellar tendon strain was significantly greater (P<0.05) during the squat position on the decline surface compared to the standard surface. The stop angles of the ankle and hip joints were significantly smaller during the decline compared to the standard squats (P<0.001, P<0.05). Normalized mean electromyography amplitudes of the knee extensor muscles were significantly greater during the decline compared to the standard squats (P<0.05). Hamstring and calf muscle mean electromyography did not differ, respectively, between standard and decline squats. The use of a 25 degrees decline board increases the load and the strain of the patellar tendon during unilateral eccentric squats. This finding likely explains previous reports of superior clinical efficacy of decline eccentric squats in the rehabilitative management of patellar tendinopathy.

Global amphibian declines: perspectives from the United States and beyond

USGS Publications Warehouse

Densmore, Christine L.; Cipriano, R.C.; Bruckner, A.W.; Shchelkunov, I.S.

2011-01-01

Over recent decades, amphibians have experienced population declines, extirpations and species-level extinctions at an alarming rate. Numerous potential etiologies for amphibian declines have been postulated including climate and habitat degradation. Other potential anthropogenic causes including overexploitation and the frequent introductions of invasive predatory species have also been blamed for amphibian declines. Still other underlying factors may include infectious diseases caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, pathogenic viruses (Ranavirus), and other agents. It is nearly certain that more than one etiology is to blame for the majority of the global amphibian declines, and that these causal factors include some combination of climatological or physical habitat destabilization and infectious disease, most notably chytridiomycosis. Scientific research efforts are aimed at elucidating these etiologies on local, regional, and global scales that we might better understand and counteract the driving forces behind amphibian declines. Conservation efforts as outlined in the Amphibian Conservation Action Plan of 2005 are also being made to curtail losses and prevent further extinctions wherever possible.

Cognitive Decline in Older Persons Initiating Anticholinergic Medications

PubMed Central

Shah, Raj C.; Janos, Alicia L.; Kline, Julia E.; Yu, Lei; Leurgans, Sue E.; Wilson, Robert S.; Wei, Peter; Bennett, David A.; Heilman, Kenneth M.; Tsao, Jack W.

2013-01-01

Background This study examines the effect of initiating medications with anticholinergic activity on the cognitive functions of older persons. Methods Participants were 896 older community-dwelling, Catholic clergy without baseline dementia. Medication data was collected annually. The Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden Scale was utilized to identify use of a medication with probable or definite anticholinergic activity. Participants had at least two annual cognitive evaluations. Results Over a mean follow-up of 10 years, the annual rate of global cognitive function decline for never users, prevalent users, and incident users was −0.062 (SE = 0.005), −0.081(SE = 0.011), and −0.096 (SE = 0.007) z-score units/year, respectively. Compared to never users, incident users had a more rapid decline (difference = −0.034 z-score units/year, SE = 0.008, p<0.001) while prevalent users did not have a significantly more rapid decline (p = 0.1). Conclusions Older persons initiating a medication with anticholinergic activity have a steeper annual decline in cognitive functioning than those who are not taking these medications. PMID:23741303

Pesticides and amphibian population declines in California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sparling, Donald W.; Fellers, Gary M.; McConnell, Laura L.

2001-01-01

Several species of anuran amphibians have undergone drastic population declines in the western United States over the last 10 to 15 years. In California, the most severe declines are in the Sierra Mountains east of the Central Valley and downwind of the intensely agricultural San Joaquin Valley. In contrast, coastal and more northern populations across from the less agrarian Sacramento Valley are stable or declining less precipitously. In this article, we provide evidence that pesticides are instrumental in declines of these species. Using Hyla regilla as a sentinel species, we found that cholinesterase (ChE) activity in tadpoles was depressed in mountainous areas east of the Central Valley compared with sites along the coast or north of the Valley. Cholinesterase was also lower in areas where ranid population status was poor or moderate compared with areas with good ranid status. Up to 50% of the sampled population in areas with reduced ChE had detectable organophosphorus residues, with concentrations as high as 190 ppb wet weight. In addition, up to 86% of some populations had measurable endosulfan concentrations and 40% had detectable 4,4'- dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene, 4,4'-DDT, and 2,4'-DDT residues.

Earliest functional declines in Huntington disease

PubMed Central

Beglinger, Leigh J.; O'Rourke, Justin J.F.; Wang, Chiachi; Langbehn, Douglas R.; Duff, Kevin; Paulsen, Jane S.

2013-01-01

We examined the gold standard for Huntington disease (HD) functional assessment, the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS), in a group of at-risk participants not yet diagnosed but who later phenoconverted to manifest HD. We also sought to determine which skill domains first weaken and the clinical correlates of declines. Using the UHDRS Total Functional Capacity (TFC) and Functional Assessment Scale (FAS), we examined participants from Huntington Study Group clinics who were not diagnosed at their baseline visit but were diagnosed at a later visit (N = 265). Occupational decline was the most common with 65.1% (TFC) and 55.6% (FAS) reporting some loss of ability to engage in their typical work. Inability to manage finances independently (TFC 49.2%, FAS 35.1%) and drive safely (FAS 33.5%) were also found. Functional decline was significantly predicted by motor, cognitive, and depressive symptoms. The UHDRS captured early functional losses in individuals with HD prior to formal diagnosis, however, fruitful areas for expanded assessment of early functional changes are performance at work, ability to manage finances, and driving. These are also important areas for clinical monitoring and treatment planning as up to 65% experienced loss in at least one area prior to diagnosis. PMID:20471695

Low and declining mercury in arctic Russian rivers.

PubMed

Castello, Leandro; Zhulidov, Alexander V; Gurtovaya, Tatiana Yu; Robarts, Richard D; Holmes, Robert M; Zhulidov, Daniel A; Lysenko, Vladimir S; Spencer, Robert G M

2014-01-01

Mercury (Hg) dynamics in the Arctic is receiving increasing attention, but further understanding is limited by a lack of studies in Russia, which encompasses the majority of the pan-Arctic watershed. This study reports Hg concentrations and trends in burbot (Lota lota) from the Lena and Mezen Rivers in the Russian Arctic, and assesses the extent to which they differ from those found in burbot in arctic rivers elsewhere. Mercury concentrations in burbot in the Lena and Mezen Rivers were found to be generally lower than in 23 other locations, most of which are in the Mackenzie River Basin (Canada). Mercury concentrations in burbot in the Lena and Mezen Rivers also were found to have been declining at an annual rate of 2.3% while they have been increasing in the Mackenzie River Basin at annual rates between 2.2 and 5.1% during roughly the same time period. These contrasting patterns in Hg in burbot across the pan-Arctic may be explained by geographic heterogeneity in controlling processes, including riverine particulate material loads, historically changing atmospheric inputs, postdepositional processes, and climate change impacts.

34 CFR 303.405 - Parent right to decline service.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... members will accept or decline any early intervention service under this part in accordance with State law, and may decline such a service after first accepting it, without jeopardizing other early intervention... AND REHABILITATIVE SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION EARLY INTERVENTION PROGRAM FOR INFANTS AND...

Declining Sunshine for Phoenix Lander

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-09-30

The yellow line on this graphic indicates the number of hours of sunlight each sol, or Martian day, beginning with the entire Martian day about 24 hours and 40 minutes for the first 90 sols, then declining to no sunlight by about sol 300.

Looking for age-related growth decline in natural forests: unexpected biomass patterns from tree rings and simulated mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foster, Jane R.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.

2014-01-01

Forest biomass growth is almost universally assumed to peak early in stand development, near canopy closure, after which it will plateau or decline. The chronosequence and plot remeasurement approaches used to establish the decline pattern suffer from limitations and coarse temporal detail. We combined annual tree ring measurements and mortality models to address two questions: first, how do assumptions about tree growth and mortality influence reconstructions of biomass growth? Second, under what circumstances does biomass production follow the model that peaks early, then declines? We integrated three stochastic mortality models with a census tree-ring data set from eight temperate forest types to reconstruct stand-level biomass increments (in Minnesota, USA). We compared growth patterns among mortality models, forest types and stands. Timing of peak biomass growth varied significantly among mortality models, peaking 20–30 years earlier when mortality was random with respect to tree growth and size, than when mortality favored slow-growing individuals. Random or u-shaped mortality (highest in small or large trees) produced peak growth 25–30 % higher than the surviving tree sample alone. Growth trends for even-aged, monospecific Pinus banksiana or Acer saccharum forests were similar to the early peak and decline expectation. However, we observed continually increasing biomass growth in older, low-productivity forests of Quercus rubra, Fraxinus nigra, and Thuja occidentalis. Tree-ring reconstructions estimated annual changes in live biomass growth and identified more diverse development patterns than previous methods. These detailed, long-term patterns of biomass development are crucial for detecting recent growth responses to global change and modeling future forest dynamics.

Declining estimates of infertility in the United States: 1982-2002.

PubMed

Stephen, Elizabeth Hervey; Chandra, Anjani

2006-09-01

To determine if the decline in infertility has been uniform across subgroups. Periodic data from the National Fertility Survey and the National Survey of Family Growth were used to determine which factors contributed to the decline in 12-month infertility in the United States. National Survey of Family Growth, a periodic US nationally representative study. A nationally representative sample of married women aged 15-44 years, N = 15,303 for pooled data across 4 survey years. None. Estimates of infertility prevalence among married women aged 15-44 years. The decline in 12-month infertility in the United States from 8.5% in 1982 and 7.4% in 2002 was significant. This decline was evident in nearly all subgroups of married women. In the multivariate analysis, 12-month infertility was more likely among women who were older and nulliparous, were non-Hispanic black or Hispanic, and did not have a college degree. The decline in 12-month infertility was observed even after controlling for the compositional differences of the population over time. Among married women in the United States, there has been a significant decline in 12-month infertility, which cannot be explained by changes in the composition of the population from 1982-2002.

Interpreting Gas Production Decline Curves By Combining Geometry and Topology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewing, R. P.; Hu, Q.

2014-12-01

Shale gas production forms an increasing fraction of domestic US energy supplies, but individual gas production wells show steep production declines. Better understanding of this production decline would allow better economic forecasting; better understanding of the reasons behind the decline would allow better production management. Yet despite these incentives, production declines curves remain poorly understood, and current analyses range from Arps' purely empirical equation to new sophisticated approaches requiring multiple unavailable parameters. Models often fail to capture salient features: for example, in log-log space many wells decline with an exponent markedly different from the -0.5 expected from diffusion, and often show a transition from one decline mode to another. We propose a new approach based on the assumption that the rate-limiting step is gas movement from the matrix to the induced fracture network. The matrix is represented as an assemblage of equivalent spheres (geometry), with low matrix pore connectivity (topology) that results in a distance-dependent accessible porosity profile given by percolation theory. The basic theory has just 2 parameters: the sphere size distribution (geometry), and the crossover distance (topology) that characterizes the porosity distribution. The theory is readily extended to include e.g. alternative geometries and bi-modal size distributions. Comparisons with historical data are promising.

Detecting insect pollinator declines on regional and global scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lubuhn, Gretchen; Droege, Sam; Connor, Edward F.; Gemmill-Herren, Barbara; Potts, Simon G.; Minckley, Robert L.; Griswold, Terry; Jean, Robert; Kula, Emanuel; Roubik, David W.; Cane, Jim; Wright, Karen W.; Frankie, Gordon; Parker, Frank

2013-01-01

Recently there has been considerable concern about declines in bee communities in agricultural and natural habitats. The value of pollination to agriculture, provided primarily by bees, is >$200 billion/year worldwide, and in natural ecosystems it is thought to be even greater. However, no monitoring program exists to accurately detect declines in abundance of insect pollinators; thus, it is difficult to quantify the status of bee communities or estimate the extent of declines. We used data from 11 multiyear studies of bee communities to devise a program to monitor pollinators at regional, national, or international scales. In these studies, 7 different methods for sampling bees were used and bees were sampled on 3 different continents. We estimated that a monitoring program with 200-250 sampling locations each sampled twice over 5 years would provide sufficient power to detect small (2-5%) annual declines in the number of species and in total abundance and would cost U.S.$2,000,000. To detect declines as small as 1% annually over the same period would require >300 sampling locations. Given the role of pollinators in food security and ecosystem function, we recommend establishment of integrated regional and international monitoring programs to detect changes in pollinator communities.

Changing sources and environmental factors reduce the rates of decline of organochlorine pesticides in the Arctic Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, S.; Halsall, C. J.; Tych, W.; Kallenborn, R.; Schlabach, M.; Manø, S.

2009-01-01

An extensive database of organochlorine (OC) pesticide concentrations measured at the Norwegian Arctic Monitoring Station was analysed to assess longer-term trends in the Arctic atmosphere. Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) is employed to investigate the seasonal and cyclical behaviour of chlordanes, DDTs and hexachlorobenzene (HCB), and to isolate underlying inter-annual trends. Although a simple comparison of annual mean concentrations (1994-2005) suggest a decline for all of the OCs investigated, the longer-term trends identified by DHR only show a significant decline for p,p'-DDT. Indeed, HCB shows an increase from 2003-2005. This is thought to be due to changes in source types and the presence of impurities in current use pesticides, together with retreating sea ice affecting air-water exchange. Changes in source types were revealed by using isomeric ratios for the chlordanes and DDTs. Declining trends in ratios of trans-chlordane/cis-chlordane (TC/CC) indicate a shift from primary sources, to more ''weathered'' secondary sources, whereas an increasing trend in o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT ratios indicate a shift from use of technical DDT to dicofol. Continued monitoring of these OC pesticides is required to fully understand the influence of a changing climate on the behaviour and environmental cycling of these chemicals in the Arctic as well as possible impacts from ''new'' sources.

Changing sources and environmental factors reduce the rates of decline of organochlorine pesticides in the Arctic atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, S.; Halsall, C. J.; Tych, W.; Kallenborn, R.; Schlabach, M.; Manø, S.

2012-05-01

An extensive database of organochlorine (OC) pesticide concentrations measured at the Norwegian Arctic monitoring station at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, was analysed to assess longer-term trends in the Arctic atmosphere. Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) is employed to investigate the seasonal and cyclical behaviour of chlordanes, DDTs and hexachlorobenzene (HCB), and to isolate underlying inter-annual trends. Although a simple comparison of annual mean concentrations (1994-2005) suggest a decline for all of the OCs investigated, the longer-term trends identified by DHR only show a significant decline for p,p'-DDT. Indeed, HCB shows an increase from 2003-2005. This is thought to be due to changes in source types and the presence of impurities in current use pesticides, together with retreating sea ice affecting air-water exchange. Changes in source types were revealed by using isomeric ratios for the chlordanes and DDTs. Declining trends in ratios of trans-chlordane/cis-chlordane (TC/CC) indicate a shift from primary sources, to more "weathered" secondary sources, whereas an increasing trend in o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT ratios indicate a shift from use of technical DDT to dicofol. Continued monitoring of these OC pesticides is required to fully understand the influence of a changing climate on the behaviour and environmental cycling of these chemicals in the Arctic as well as possible impacts from "new" sources.

Ancient and Contemporary DNA Reveal a Pre-Human Decline but No Population Bottleneck Associated with Recent Human Persecution in the Kea (Nestor notabilis)

PubMed Central

Dussex, Nicolas; Rawlence, Nicolas J.; Robertson, Bruce C.

2015-01-01

The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis). Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000–5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410), historical (n = 15) and fossil samples (n = 4) showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial) but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 – 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines. PMID:25719752

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may

Geriatric Assessment and Functional Decline in Older Patients with Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Decoster, L; Kenis, C; Schallier, D; Vansteenkiste, J; Nackaerts, K; Vanacker, L; Vandewalle, N; Flamaing, J; Lobelle, J P; Milisen, K; De Grève, J; Wildiers, H

2017-10-01

Older patients with lung cancer are a heterogeneous population making treatment decisions complex. This study aims to evaluate the value of geriatric assessment (GA) as well as the evolution of functional status (FS) in older patients with lung cancer, and to identify predictors associated with functional decline and overall survival (OS). At baseline, GA was performed in patients ≥70 years with newly diagnosed lung cancer. FS measured by activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) was reassessed at follow-up to define functional decline and OS was collected. Predictors for functional decline and OS were determined. Two hundred and forty-five patients were included in this study. At baseline, GA deficiencies were present in all domains and ADL and IADL were impaired in 51 and 63% of patients, respectively. At follow-up, functional decline in ADL was observed in 23% and in IADL in 45% of patients. In multivariable analysis, radiotherapy was predictive for ADL decline. No other predictors for ADL or IADL decline were identified. Stage and baseline performance status were predictive for OS. Older patients with lung cancer present with multiple deficiencies covering all geriatric domains. During treatment, functional decline is observed in almost half of the patients. None of the specific domains of the GA were predictive for functional decline or survival, probably because of the high impact of the aggressiveness of this tumor type leading to a poor prognosis.

Predicting clinical decline in progressive agrammatic aphasia and apraxia of speech.

PubMed

Whitwell, Jennifer L; Weigand, Stephen D; Duffy, Joseph R; Clark, Heather M; Strand, Edythe A; Machulda, Mary M; Spychalla, Anthony J; Senjem, Matthew L; Jack, Clifford R; Josephs, Keith A

2017-11-28

To determine whether baseline clinical and MRI features predict rate of clinical decline in patients with progressive apraxia of speech (AOS). Thirty-four patients with progressive AOS, with AOS either in isolation or in the presence of agrammatic aphasia, were followed up longitudinally for up to 4 visits, with clinical testing and MRI at each visit. Linear mixed-effects regression models including all visits (n = 94) were used to assess baseline clinical and MRI variables that predict rate of worsening of aphasia, motor speech, parkinsonism, and behavior. Clinical predictors included baseline severity and AOS type. MRI predictors included baseline frontal, premotor, motor, and striatal gray matter volumes. More severe parkinsonism at baseline was associated with faster rate of decline in parkinsonism. Patients with predominant sound distortions (AOS type 1) showed faster rates of decline in aphasia and motor speech, while patients with segmented speech (AOS type 2) showed faster rates of decline in parkinsonism. On MRI, we observed trends for fastest rates of decline in aphasia in patients with relatively small left, but preserved right, Broca area and precentral cortex. Bilateral reductions in lateral premotor cortex were associated with faster rates of decline of behavior. No associations were observed between volumes and decline in motor speech or parkinsonism. Rate of decline of each of the 4 clinical features assessed was associated with different baseline clinical and regional MRI predictors. Our findings could help improve prognostic estimates for these patients. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

Motivational decline and recovery in higher education STEM courses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, Anna M.; Wendel, Paul J.; Esson, Joan M.; Plank, Kathryn M.

2018-06-01

Decline in student motivation is a concern for STEM education, especially for underrepresented groups in the sciences. Using the Science Motivation Questionnaire II, 41 foundational STEM courses were surveyed at the beginning and end of each semester in an academic year at a small primarily undergraduate university. Significant pre- to post-semester declines were observed in each of five measured motivational factors (Intrinsic motivation, Career motivation, Self determination, Self-efficacy, and Grade motivation), with effect sizes ranging from 0.21 to 0.41. However, in the second semester pre-survey, four motivational factors rebounded, including three returning to initial levels, suggesting that the observed motivational decline is not long-lasting. Analysis suggests that declines are not related to survey fatigue or student demographics, but rather to grades and, in the case of one motivational factor, to academic field. These findings suggest that a refocus on grading practices across STEM fields may influence student motivation and persistence in STEM.

Disproportionate Declines in Ground-Foraging Insectivorous Birds after Mistletoe Removal

PubMed Central

Watson, David M.

2015-01-01

Insectivorous birds have been recognized as disproportionately sensitive to land-use intensification and habitat loss, with those species feeding primarily on the ground exhibiting some of the most dramatic declines. Altered litter inputs and availability of epigeic arthropods have been suggested to underlie reduced abundances and shrinking distributions but direct evidence is lacking. I used a patch-scale removal experiment in southern Australia to evaluate whether ground-feeding insectivores are especially vulnerable to altered litter-fall. Building on work demonstrating the importance of mistletoe litter to nutrient dynamics, litter was reduced by removing mistletoe (Loranthaceae) from one set of eucalypt woodlands, responses of birds three years after mistletoe removal compared with otherwise similar control woodlands containing mistletoe. Despite not feeding on mistletoes directly, insectivores exhibited the greatest response to mistletoe removal. Among woodland residents, ground-foraging insectivores showed the most dramatic response; treatment woodlands losing an average of 37.4% of their pre-treatment species richness. Once these 19 species of ground-foraging insectivores were excluded, remaining woodland species showed no significant effect of mistletoe removal. This response reflects greater initial losses in treatment woodlands during the study (which coincided with a severe drought) and double the number of species returning to control woodlands (where mistletoe numbers and litter were not manipulated) post-drought. These findings support the productivity-based explanation of declining insectivores, suggesting diminished litter-fall reduced habitat quality for these birds via decreased availability of their preferred prey. In addition to altered prey availability, interactions between litter-fall and epigeic arthropods exemplify the importance of below-ground / above-ground linkages driving ecosystem function. PMID:26640895

Estimates of connectivity reveal non-equilibrium epiphyte occurrence patterns almost 180 years after habitat decline.

PubMed

Johansson, Victor; Snäll, Tord; Ranius, Thomas

2013-06-01

Habitat loss is a major cause of species decline and extinction. Immediately after habitat loss, species occurrences are not in equilibrium with the new landscape and more closely reflect the previous landscape structure. Species with slow colonisation-extinction dynamics may display long time-lags before reaching a new equilibrium. We investigated the importance of connectivity to current and historical dispersal sources with the aim of explaining the occurrence pattern of epiphytic lichens with different traits among 104 old oaks. We used oak survey data collected from 1830 and 2009 for a Swedish landscape where oak densities declined drastically shortly after 1830. We fitted a commonly used connectivity measure and estimated the confidence interval for the spatial scale parameter. Small differences in the spatial scale parameter resulted in large differences in model fit. Connectivity to trees in 1830 better explained the occurrence of three of the four species compared to the connectivity in 2009. The explanatory power of the historical landscape structure was highest for the species with traits that may result in a low colonisation rate--both a narrow niche (here few suitable trees) and large dispersal propagules. The results suggest that oak-dependent epiphytic lichens have not reached equilibrium with the spatial landscape structure 180 years after the drastic decline in habitat. For the long-term persistence of epiphytes associated with old trees, conservation efforts should focus on (1) protecting and restoring stands where specialised species with large dispersal propagules (i.e. with low colonisation rates) occur today and (2) promoting tree regeneration in their near vicinity.

Late Life Leisure Activities and Risk of Cognitive Decline

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background. Studies concerning the effect of different types of leisure activities on various cognitive domains are limited. This study tests the hypothesis that mental, physical, and social activities have a domain-specific protection against cognitive decline. Methods. A cohort of a geographically defined population in China was examined in 2003–2005 and followed for an average of 2.4 years. Leisure activities were assessed in 1,463 adults aged 65 years and older without cognitive or physical impairment at baseline, and their cognitive performances were tested at baseline and follow-up examinations. Results. High level of mental activity was related to less decline in global cognition (β = −.23, p < .01), language (β = −.11, p < .05), and executive function (β = −.13, p < .05) in ANCOVA models adjusting for age, gender, education, history of stroke, body mass index, Apolipoprotein E genotype, and baseline cognition. High level of physical activity was related to less decline in episodic memory (β = −.08, p < .05) and language (β = −.15, p < .01). High level of social activity was associated with less decline in global cognition (β = −.11, p < .05). Further, a dose-response pattern was observed: although participants who did not engage in any of the three activities experienced a significant global cognitive decline, those who engaged in any one of the activities maintained their cognition, and those who engaged in two or three activities improved their cognition. The same pattern was observed in men and in women. Conclusions. Leisure activities in old age may protect against cognitive decline for both women and men, and different types of activities seem to benefit different cognitive domains. PMID:22879456

Human Population Decline in North America during the Younger Dryas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, D. G.; Goodyear, A. C.; Stafford, T. W., Jr.; Kennett, J.; West, A.

2009-12-01

There is ongoing debate about a possible human population decline or contraction at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) at 12.9 ka. We used two methods to test whether the YD affected human population levels: (1) frequency analyses of Paleoindian projectile points, and (2) summed probability analyses of radiocarbon (14C) dates. The results suggest that a significant decline or reorganization of human populations occurred at 12.9 ka, continued through the initial centuries of the YD chronozone, then rebounded by the end of the YD. FREQUENCY ANALYSES: This method employed projectile point data from the Paleoindian Database of the Americas (PIDBA, http://pidba.utk.edu). We tallied diagnostic projectile points and obtained larger totals for Clovis points than for immediately post-Clovis points, which share an instrument-assisted fluting technique, typically using pressure or indirect percussion. Gainey, Vail, Debert, Redstone, and Cumberland point-styles utilized this method and are comparable to the Folsom style. For the SE U.S., the ratio of Clovis points (n=1993) to post-Clovis points (n=947) reveals a point decline of 52%. For the Great Plains, a comparison of Clovis and fluted points (n=4020) to Folsom points (n=2527) shows a point decline of 37%, which may translate into a population contraction of similar magnitude. In addition, eight major Clovis lithic quarry sites in the SE U.S. exhibit little to no evidence for immediate post-Clovis occupations, implying a major population decline. SUMMED PROBABILITIES: This method involved calibrating relevant 14C dates and combining the probabilities, after which major peaks and troughs in the trends are assumed to reflect changes in human demographics. Using 14C dates from Buchanan et al. (2008), we analyzed multiple regions, including the Southeast and Great Plains. Contrary to Buchanan et al., we found an abrupt, statistically significant decline at 12.9 ka, followed 200 to 900 years later by a rebound in the number of

The Decline in Female Elementary Principals Since 1928: Riddles and Clues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalvelage, Joan

In 1928, 55 percent of elementary school principals were women. By 1973, only 20 percent were women. This paper examines research data for explanations of the decline of the percentage of women elementary school principals. Both incompetence and sex discrimination are rejected as explanations. Clues to the decline are traced to the decline of the…

Mitochondrial Dynamics: Coupling Mitochondrial Fitness with Healthy Aging.

PubMed

Sebastián, David; Palacín, Manuel; Zorzano, Antonio

2017-03-01

Aging is associated with a decline in mitochondrial function and the accumulation of abnormal mitochondria. However, the precise mechanisms by which aging promotes these mitochondrial alterations and the role of the latter in aging are still not fully understood. Mitochondrial dynamics is a key process regulating mitochondrial function and quality. Altered expression of some mitochondrial dynamics proteins has been recently associated with aging and with age-related alterations in yeast, Caenorhabditis elegans, mice, and humans. Here, we review the link between alterations in mitochondrial dynamics, aging, and age-related impairment. We propose that the dysregulation of mitochondrial dynamics leads to age-induced accumulation of unhealthy mitochondria and contributes to alterations linked to aging, such as diabetes and neurodegeneration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

34 CFR 303.405 - Parent right to decline service.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Parent right to decline service. 303.405 Section 303... TODDLERS WITH DISABILITIES Procedural Safeguards General § 303.405 Parent right to decline service. The parents of a child eligible under this part may determine whether they, their child, or other family...

State of pine decline in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

Lori Eckhardt; Mary Anne Sword Sayer; Don Imm

2010-01-01

Pine decline is an emerging forest health issue in the southeastern United States. Observations suggest pine decline is caused by environmental stress arising from competition, weather, insects and fungi, anthropogenic disturbances, and previous management. The problem is most severe for loblolly pine on sites that historically supported longleaf pine, are highly...

Effects of invasive parasites on bumble bee declines.

PubMed

Meeus, Ivan; Brown, Mark J F; De Graaf, Dirk C; Smagghe, Guy

2011-08-01

Bumble bees are a group of pollinators that are both ecologically and economically important and declining worldwide. Numerous mechanisms could be behind this decline, and the spread of parasites from commercial colonies into wild populations has been implicated recently in North America. Commercial breeding may lead to declines because commercial colonies may have high parasite loads, which can lead to colonization of native bumble bee populations; commercial rearing may allow higher parasite virulence to evolve; and global movement of commercial colonies may disrupt spatial patterns in local adaptation between hosts and parasites. We assessed parasite virulence, transmission mode, and infectivity. Microparasites and so-called honey bee viruses may pose the greatest threat to native bumble bee populations because certain risk factors are present; for example, the probability of horizontal transmission of the trypanosome parasite Crithidia bombi is high. The microsporidian parasite Nosema bombi may play a role in declines of bumble bees in the United States. Preliminary indications that C. bombi and the neogregarine Apicystis bombi may not be native in parts of South America. We suggest that the development of molecular screening protocols, thorough sanitation efforts, and cooperation among nongovernmental organizations, governments, and commercial breeders might immediately mitigate these threats. © 2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Age-dependent decline of nogo-a protein in the mouse cerebrum.

PubMed

Kumari, Anita; Thakur, M K

2014-11-01

Nogo-A, a myelin-associated neurite growth inhibitory protein, is implicated in synaptic plasticity. It binds to its receptor namely the Nogo-66 receptor1 (NgR1) and regulates filamentous (F) actin dynamics via small GTPases of the Rho family, RhoA kinase (ROCK), LimK and cofilin. These proteins are associated with the structural plasticity, one of the components of synaptic plasticity, which is known to decline with normal aging. So, the level of Nogo-A and its receptor NgR1 are likely to vary during normal brain aging. However, it is not clearly understood how the levels of Nogo-A and its receptor NgR1 change in the cerebrum during aging. Several studies show an age- and gender-dependent decline in synaptic plasticity. Therefore, the present study was planned to analyze the relative changes in the mRNA and protein levels of Nogo-A and NgR1 in both male and female mice cerebrum during normal aging. Western blot analysis has shown decrease in Nogo-A protein level during aging in both male and female mice cerebrum. This was further confirmed by immunofluorescence analysis. RT-PCR analysis of Nogo-A mRNA showed no significant difference in the above-mentioned groups. This was also supported by in situ hybridization. NgR1 protein and its mRNA expression levels showed no significant alteration with aging in the cerebrum of both male and female mice. Taken together, we speculate that the downregulation of Nogo-A protein might have a role in the altered synaptic plasticity during aging.

Functional network integrity presages cognitive decline in preclinical Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Buckley, Rachel F; Schultz, Aaron P; Hedden, Trey; Papp, Kathryn V; Hanseeuw, Bernard J; Marshall, Gad; Sepulcre, Jorge; Smith, Emily E; Rentz, Dorene M; Johnson, Keith A; Sperling, Reisa A; Chhatwal, Jasmeer P

2017-07-04

To examine the utility of resting-state functional connectivity MRI (rs-fcMRI) measurements of network integrity as a predictor of future cognitive decline in preclinical Alzheimer disease (AD). A total of 237 clinically normal older adults (aged 63-90 years, Clinical Dementia Rating 0) underwent baseline β-amyloid (Aβ) imaging with Pittsburgh compound B PET and structural and rs-fcMRI. We identified 7 networks for analysis, including 4 cognitive networks (default, salience, dorsal attention, and frontoparietal control) and 3 noncognitive networks (primary visual, extrastriate visual, motor). Using linear and curvilinear mixed models, we used baseline connectivity in these networks to predict longitudinal changes in preclinical Alzheimer cognitive composite (PACC) performance, both alone and interacting with Aβ burden. Median neuropsychological follow-up was 3 years. Baseline connectivity in the default, salience, and control networks predicted longitudinal PACC decline, unlike connectivity in the dorsal attention and all noncognitive networks. Default, salience, and control network connectivity was also synergistic with Aβ burden in predicting decline, with combined higher Aβ and lower connectivity predicting the steepest curvilinear decline in PACC performance. In clinically normal older adults, lower functional connectivity predicted more rapid decline in PACC scores over time, particularly when coupled with increased Aβ burden. Among examined networks, default, salience, and control networks were the strongest predictors of rate of change in PACC scores, with the inflection point of greatest decline beyond the fourth year of follow-up. These results suggest that rs-fcMRI may be a useful predictor of early, AD-related cognitive decline in clinical research settings. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeWeaver, Eric T.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Tremblay, L.-Bruno

This volume addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include • An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline; • A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments; • A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act; • Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations; • A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction. The book will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.

Left Ventricular Hypertrophy and Cognitive Decline in Old Age.

PubMed

Mahinrad, Simin; Vriend, Annelotte E; Jukema, J Wouter; van Heemst, Diana; Sattar, Naveed; Blauw, Gerard Jan; Macfarlane, Peter W; Clark, Elaine N; de Craen, Anton J M; Sabayan, Behnam

2017-01-01

Patients with advanced heart failure run a greater risk of dementia. Whether early cardiac structural changes also associate with cognitive decline is yet to be determined. We tested whether left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) derived from electrocardiogram associates with cognitive decline in older subjects at risk of cardiovascular disease. We included 4,233 participants (mean age 75.2 years, 47.8% male) from PROSPER (PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk). LVH was assessed from baseline electrocardiograms by measuring the Sokolow-Lyon index. Higher levels of Sokolow-Lyon index indicate higher degrees of LVH. Cognitive domains involving selective attention, processing speed, and immediate and delayed memory were measured at baseline and repeated during a mean follow-up of 3.2 years. At baseline, LVH was not associated with worse cognitive function. During follow-up, participants with higher levels of LVH had a steeper decline in cognitive function including in selective attention (p = 0.009), processing speed (p = 0.010), immediate memory (p < 0.001), and delayed memory (p = 0.002). These associations were independent of cardiovascular risk factors, co-morbidities, and medications. LVH assessed by electrocardiogram associates with steeper decline in cognitive function of older subjects independent of cardiovascular risk factors and co-morbidities. This study provides further evidence on the link between subclinical cardiac structural changes and cognitive decline in older subjects.

Aging- and task-related resilience decline is linked to food responsiveness in highly social honey bees.

PubMed

Speth, Martin T; Kreibich, Claus D; Amdam, Gro V; Münch, Daniel

2015-05-01

Conventional invertebrate models of aging have provided striking examples for the influence of food- and nutrient-sensing on lifespan and stress resilience. On the other hand, studies in highly social insects, such as honey bees, have revealed how social context can shape very plastic life-history traits, for example flexible aging dynamics in the helper caste (workers). It is, however, not understood how food perception and stress resilience are connected in honey bee workers with different social task behaviors and aging dynamics. To explore this linkage, we tested if starvation resilience, which normally declines with age, depends on food responsiveness in honey bees. We studied two typically non-senesced groups of worker bees with different social task behaviors: mature nurses (caregivers) and mature foragers (food collectors). In addition, we included a group of old foragers for which functional senescence is well-established. Bees were individually scored for their food perception by measuring the gustatory response to different sucrose concentrations. Subsequently, individuals were tested for survival under starvation stress. We found that starvation stress resilience, but not gustatory responsiveness differed between workers with different social task behaviors (mature nurses vs. mature foragers). In addition starvation stress resilience differed between foragers with different aging progressions (mature foragers vs. old foragers). Control experiments confirmed that differences in starvation resilience between mature nurses and mature foragers were robust against changing experimental conditions, such as water provision and activity. For all worker groups we established that individuals with low gustatory responsiveness were more resilient to starvation stress. Finally, for the group of rapidly aging foragers we found that low food responsiveness was linked to a delayed age-related decline in starvation resilience. Our study highlights associations between

Hospital marketing: strategy reassessment in a declining market.

PubMed

Van Doren, D C; Spielman, A P

1989-03-01

Despite continued significant increases in the nation's spending for health care, use of inpatient hospital services has declined. The authors use the product life cycle to analyze the market for inpatient hospital services and to examine competitive strategies for hospital marketing success. The product life cycle literature suggests at least four strategies for products in decline. The authors analyze the advantages and disadvantages of these strategies as they relate to the hospital market.

Declining Trends in Student Performance in Lower Secondary Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wijsman, Lindy A.; Warrens, Matthijs J.; Saab, Nadira; van Driel, Jan H.; Westenberg, P. Michiel

2016-01-01

Student performance is related to motivation to learn. As motivation generally declines during lower secondary education, one might expect performance to decline as well during this period. Though, until now, it has been unclear whether this pattern exists. In the present study, we examined student performance during the early years of secondary…

Impact of Declining Rural Infrastructure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McKenzie, Fiona Haslem

A study investigated the impact of declining rural community infrastructure on social, environmental, and economic well-being in Western Australia's central wheatbelt. Questionnaires were completed by 398 residents of the central wheatbelt, on-farm interviews were conducted with 68 respondents, and 4 focus groups were held in area towns.…

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Whitfield, Steven M; Bell, Kristen E; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M; Donnelly, Maureen A

2007-05-15

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these "enigmatic" declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by approximately 75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks.

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica

PubMed Central

Whitfield, Steven M.; Bell, Kristen E.; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M.; Donnelly, Maureen A.

2007-01-01

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these “enigmatic” declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by ≈75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks. PMID:17449638

Growth Decline Linked to Warming-Induced Water Limitation in Hemi-Boreal Forests

PubMed Central

Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Guo, Dali; Anenkhonov, Oleg A.; Badmaeva, Natalya K.; Sandanov, Denis V.

2012-01-01

Hemi-boreal forests, which make up the transition from temperate deciduous forests to boreal forests in southern Siberia, have experienced significant warming without any accompanying increase in precipitation during the last 80 years. This climatic change could have a profound impact on tree growth and on the stability of forest ecosystems in this region, but at present evidence for these impacts is lacking. In this study, we report a recent dramatic decline in the growth of hemi-boreal forests, based on ring width measurements from three dominant tree-species (Pinus sylvestris, Larix sibirica and Larix gmelinii), sampled from eight sites in the region. We found that regional tree growth has become increasingly limited by low soil water content in the pre- and early-growing season (from October of the previous year to July of the current year) over the past 80 years. A warming-induced reduction in soil water content has also increased the climate sensitivity of these three tree species. Beginning in the mid-1980s, a clear decline in growth is evident for both the pine forests and the larch forests, although there are increasing trends in the proxy of soil water use efficiencies. Our findings are consistent with those from other parts of the world and provide valuable insights into the regional carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, and should be useful for devising adaptive forest management strategies. PMID:22916142

Declines and Plateaux in Smoking Prevalence Over Three Decades in Fiji.

PubMed

Linhart, Christine; Tukana, Isimeli; Lin, Sophia; Taylor, Richard; Morrell, Stephen; Vatucawaqa, Penina; Magliano, Dianna J; Zimmet, Paul

2017-11-01

To examine trends from 1980 to 2011 in daily tobacco smoking by sex, ethnicity, age, and urban/rural in Fiji Melanesian (i-Taukei) and Indian adults aged 25-64 years. Unit record data from five population-based surveys (n = 14 528) allowed classification of participants as: (1) never-smoker, ex-smoker, or non-daily smoker; or (2) daily smoker, reporting smoking <20 or ≥20 tobacco products (cigarettes/cigars/pipes) a day. Trends were examined using spline analyses. Over 1980-2011 the prevalence of reported daily tobacco smoking decreased significantly in both sexes and ethnicities, with the greatest decline during 1980-2000. Declines were from 81.7% to 27.0% in i-Taukei men; 55.3% to 26.3% in Indian men; 48.1% to 9.5% in i-Taukei women; and 13.8% to 1.3% in Indian women (p < .0001). Declines were consistent across all age groups in men, while there were greater declines among older age groups in women; and greater declines from higher prevalences in rural compared to urban areas in both sexes and ethnicities. Smoking ≥20 tobacco products per day declined significantly in i-Taukei men from 8.0% to 1.9% (p < .0001); there were also declines in Indian men (4.6% to 2.0%) and i-Taukei women (2.6% to 0.6%), but these were not statistically significant; and Indian women remained <0.2% throughout the period. Significant declines in daily tobacco smoking have occurred in Fiji in both sexes and ethnicities during the past 30 years, which is consistent with declines in tobacco apparent consumption and household expenditure. However, prevalence remains high in men at around 27% in 2011, with plateau at this level in i-Taukei. This is the first study to show nationally representative population trends in tobacco smoking in a developing country over such a long period (>30 years) based on empirical unit record data (n = 14 528). Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of mortality throughout the Pacific Island region. This is the first study to show evidence of substantial

Declines and Plateaux in Smoking Prevalence Over Three Decades in Fiji

PubMed Central

Linhart, Christine; Tukana, Isimeli; Lin, Sophia; Taylor, Richard; Morrell, Stephen; Vatucawaqa, Penina; Magliano, Dianna J; Zimmet, Paul

2017-01-01

Abstract Objectives To examine trends from 1980 to 2011 in daily tobacco smoking by sex, ethnicity, age, and urban/rural in Fiji Melanesian (i-Taukei) and Indian adults aged 25–64 years. Methods Unit record data from five population-based surveys (n = 14 528) allowed classification of participants as: (1) never-smoker, ex-smoker, or non-daily smoker; or (2) daily smoker, reporting smoking <20 or ≥20 tobacco products (cigarettes/cigars/pipes) a day. Trends were examined using spline analyses. Results Over 1980–2011 the prevalence of reported daily tobacco smoking decreased significantly in both sexes and ethnicities, with the greatest decline during 1980–2000. Declines were from 81.7% to 27.0% in i-Taukei men; 55.3% to 26.3% in Indian men; 48.1% to 9.5% in i-Taukei women; and 13.8% to 1.3% in Indian women (p < .0001). Declines were consistent across all age groups in men, while there were greater declines among older age groups in women; and greater declines from higher prevalences in rural compared to urban areas in both sexes and ethnicities. Smoking ≥20 tobacco products per day declined significantly in i-Taukei men from 8.0% to 1.9% (p < .0001); there were also declines in Indian men (4.6% to 2.0%) and i-Taukei women (2.6% to 0.6%), but these were not statistically significant; and Indian women remained <0.2% throughout the period. Conclusions Significant declines in daily tobacco smoking have occurred in Fiji in both sexes and ethnicities during the past 30 years, which is consistent with declines in tobacco apparent consumption and household expenditure. However, prevalence remains high in men at around 27% in 2011, with plateau at this level in i-Taukei. Implications This is the first study to show nationally representative population trends in tobacco smoking in a developing country over such a long period (>30 years) based on empirical unit record data (n = 14 528). Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of mortality throughout the Pacific

Demography and decline of the Mentasta Caribou Herd, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, Kurt J.; Barten, Neil L.

2005-01-01

We evaluated population trends in the Mentasta caribou (Rangifer tarandus (L., 1758)) herd in Wrangell a?? St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska, from 1990 to 1997 and determined factors contributing to its decline. We postulated that predation-related mortality of adult females and juveniles was the proximate cause of the decline, and that survival of juvenile caribou reflected interactions with winter severity, calving distribution, timing of births, density of caribou, and physical condition of neonates at birth. The population declined at its greatest rate from 1990 to 1993 (r = a??0.32) and at a lower rate from 1994 to 1997 (r = a??0.09). Recruitment (number of calves/100 females during September) averaged 4/100 during the rapid population decline from 1990 to 1993 and 13/100 from 1994 to 1997. Parturition rate of adult females ranged from 65% to 97%. Survival of adult females and juveniles ranged from 0.77 to 0.86 and from 0.00 to 0.22, respectively. Approximately 43%, 59%, and 79% of all juvenile mortality occurred by 1, 2, and 4 weeks of age, respectively. We confirmed predation-related mortality as the primary proximate cause of population decline, with gray wolves (Canis lupus L., 1758), bears (species of the genus Ursus L., 1758), and other predators accounting for 57%, 38%, and 5%, respectively, of all juvenile mortality, and bears causing disproportionate mortality among 0- to 1-week-old neonates. We supported the hypotheses that timing of birth and habitat conditions at the birth site, particularly mottled snow patterns, affected vulnerability and survival of neonates, and birth mass affected survival of juveniles through summer. We speculate that the population will continue to decline before reaching a low-density equilibrium that is sustained by density-dependent changes in the functional responses of predators.

Predicting functional decline and survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Ong, Mei-Lyn; Tan, Pei Fang; Holbrook, Joanna D

2017-01-01

Better predictors of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease course could enable smaller and more targeted clinical trials. Partially to address this aim, the Prize for Life foundation collected de-identified records from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis sufferers who participated in clinical trials of investigational drugs and made them available to researchers in the PRO-ACT database. In this study, time series data from PRO-ACT subjects were fitted to exponential models. Binary classes for decline in the total score of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis functional rating scale revised (ALSFRS-R) (fast/slow progression) and survival (high/low death risk) were derived. Data was segregated into training and test sets via cross validation. Learning algorithms were applied to the demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters in the training set to predict ALSFRS-R decline and the derived fast/slow progression and high/low death risk categories. The performance of predictive models was assessed by cross-validation in the test set using Receiver Operator Curves and root mean squared errors. A model created using a boosting algorithm containing the decline in four parameters (weight, alkaline phosphatase, albumin and creatine kinase) post baseline, was able to predict functional decline class (fast or slow) with fair accuracy (AUC = 0.82). However similar approaches to build a predictive model for decline class by baseline subject characteristics were not successful. In contrast, baseline values of total bilirubin, gamma glutamyltransferase, urine specific gravity and ALSFRS-R item score-climbing stairs were sufficient to predict survival class. Using combinations of small numbers of variables it was possible to predict classes of functional decline and survival across the 1-2 year timeframe available in PRO-ACT. These findings may have utility for design of future ALS clinical trials.

Did the Decline in Social Connections Depress Americans' Happiness?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartolini, Stefano; Bilancini, Ennio; Pugno, Maurizio

2013-01-01

During the last 30 years US citizens experienced, on average, a decline in reported happiness, social connections, and confidence in institutions. We show that a remarkable portion of the decrease in happiness is predicted by the decline in social connections and confidence in institutions. We carry out our investigation in three steps. First, we…

Assessment of black ash (Fraxinus nigra) decline in Minnesota

Treesearch

Kathleen Ward; Michael Ostry; Robert Venette; Brian Palik; Mark Hansen; Mark Hatfield

2009-01-01

Black ash (Fraxinus nigra) is an important component of wetland forests throughout the Upper Midwest and northeastern United States and is highly valued for paneling, furniture, and basketry. Decline of black ash has been noted with increasing frequency, although no detailed studies of the pattern of decline across the region have been done. From...

The rise (and decline?) of biotechnology.

PubMed

Kinch, Michael S

2014-11-01

Since the 1970s, biotechnology has been a key innovator in drug development. An analysis of FDA-approved therapeutics demonstrates pharmaceutical companies outpace biotechs in terms of new approvals but biotechnology companies are now responsible for earlier-stage activities (patents, INDs or clinical development). The number of biotechnology organizations that contributed to an FDA approval began declining in the 2000s and is at a level not seen since the 1980s. Whereas early biotechnology companies had a decade from first approval until acquisition, the average acquisition of a biotechnology company now occurs months before their first FDA approval. The number of hybrid organizations that arise when pharmaceutical companies acquire biotechnology is likewise declining, raising questions about the sustainability of biotechnology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Context-dependent colonization dynamics: Regional reward contagion drives local compression in aquatic beetles.

PubMed

Pintar, Matthew R; Resetarits, William J

2017-09-01

Habitat selection by colonizing organisms is an important factor in determining species abundance and community dynamics at multiple spatial scales. Many organisms select habitat patches based on intrinsic patch quality, but patches exist in complex landscapes linked by dispersal and colonization, forming metapopulations and metacommunities. Perceived patch quality can be influenced by neighbouring patches through spatial contagion, wherein perceived quality of one patch can extend beyond its borders and either increase or decrease the colonization of neighbouring patches and localities. These spatially explicit colonization dynamics can result in habitat compression, wherein more colonists occupy a patch or locality than in the absence of spatial context dependence. Previous work on contagion/compression focused primarily on the role of predators in driving colonization patterns. Our goal was to determine whether resource abundance can drive multi-scale colonization dynamics of aquatic beetles through the processes of contagion and compression in naturally colonized experimental pools. We established two levels (high/low quality) of within-patch resource abundances (leaf litter) using an experimental landscape of mesocosms, and assayed colonization by 35 species of aquatic beetles. Patches were arranged in localities (sets of two patches), which consisted of a combination of two patch-level resource levels in a 2 × 2 factorial design, allowing us to assay colonization at both locality and patch levels. We demonstrate that patterns of species abundance and richness of colonizing aquatic beetles are determined by patch quality and context-dependent processes at multiple spatial scales. Localities that consisted of at least one high-quality patch were colonized at equivalent rates that were higher than localities containing only low-quality patches, displaying regional reward contagion. In localities that consisted of one high- and one low-quality patch, reward

The widespread threat of calcium decline in fresh waters.

PubMed

Jeziorski, Adam; Yan, Norman D; Paterson, Andrew M; Desellas, Anna M; Turner, Michael A; Jeffries, Dean S; Keller, Bill; Weeber, Russ C; McNicol, Don K; Palmer, Michelle E; McIver, Kyle; Arseneau, Kristina; Ginn, Brian K; Cumming, Brian F; Smol, John P

2008-11-28

Calcium concentrations are now commonly declining in softwater boreal lakes. Although the mechanisms leading to these declines are generally well known, the consequences for the aquatic biota have not yet been reported. By examining crustacean zooplankton remains preserved in lake sediment cores, we document near extirpations of calcium-rich Daphnia species, which are keystone herbivores in pelagic food webs, concurrent with declining lake-water calcium. A large proportion (62%, 47 to 81% by region) of the Canadian Shield lakes we examined has a calcium concentration approaching or below the threshold at which laboratory Daphnia populations suffer reduced survival and fecundity. The ecological impacts of environmental calcium loss are likely to be both widespread and pronounced.

Army Study Shows Decline In Behavioral Health Stigma

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

Army Study Shows Decline in Behavioral Health Stigma By Rob McIlvaine Army News Service WASHINGTON, Jan. 20, 2012 - A newly released Army study on...conference yesterday. The three-year study outlines the problem of suicide in the Army and related issues of substance abuse, spouse abuse and child abuse...REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2012 to 00-00-2012 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Army Study Shows Decline In Behavioral Health Stigma 5a. CONTRACT

Brain Metastases Treatment Worsens Cognitive Decline

Cancer.gov

In some patients with cancer that has spread to the brain, whole brain radiation following radiosurgery causes more severe cognitive decline and does not improve survival compared with radiosurgery alone, a new study has found.

Depressive symptoms predict cancer caregivers' physical health decline.

PubMed

Shaffer, Kelly M; Kim, Youngmee; Carver, Charles S; Cannady, Rachel S

2017-11-01

Cancer caregiving has been associated with worsening health among caregivers themselves, yet demographic and psychosocial predictors of their long-term health decline are less known. This study examines changes in caregivers' physical health 2 to 8 years after their family members' cancer diagnosis and prospective predictors of that change. Caregivers (n = 664; mean age, 53.2 years) participated in a nationwide study at 2 (T1), 5 (T2), and 8 (T3) years after their family members' cancer diagnosis. Physical health (12-item Medical Outcomes Study Short Form Health Survey Physical Component Scale) was assessed T1 through T3 as outcome. Predictors were self-reported at T1, including caregiver demographics (age, sex, education, income, relationship to patient, and employment status), patient cancer severity (from medical records), and caregiver psychosocial factors (caregiving stress, caregiving esteem, social support, and depressive symptoms). Latent growth modeling tested predictors of caregivers' initial physical health and their physical health change across time. At T1, caregivers reported slightly better physical health than the US population (M = 51.22, P = .002), which declined over the following 6 years (M slope = -0.27, P < .001). All demographic factors, patient cancer severity, and T1 caregiving stress were related to caregivers' initial physical health (P ≤ .03). Higher depressive symptoms were unrelated to caregivers' initial physical health, but were the only significant predictor of caregivers' more rapid physical health decline (B = -0.02, P = .004). Findings highlight the unique contribution of caregivers' depressive symptoms to their physical health decline. Assessing and addressing depressive symptoms among caregivers early in the cancer survivorship trajectory may help to prevent premature health decline among this important yet vulnerable population. Cancer 2017;123:4277-4285. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Language decline across the life span: findings from the Nun Study.

PubMed

Kemper, S; Greiner, L H; Marquis, J G; Prenovost, K; Mitzner, T L

2001-06-01

The present study examines language samples from the Nun Study. Measures of grammatical complexity and idea density were obtained from autobiographies written over a 60-year span. Participants who had met criteria for dementia were contrasted with those who did not. Grammatical complexity initially averaged 4.78 (on a 0-to-7-point scale) for participants who did not meet criteria for dementia and declined .04 units per year; grammatical complexity for participants who met criteria for dementia initially averaged 3.86 and declined .03 units per year. Idea density averaged 5.35 propositions per 10 words initially for participants who did not meet criteria for dementia and declined an average of .03 units per year, whereas idea density averaged 4.34 propositions per 10 words initially for participants who met criteria for dementia and declined .02 units per year. Adult experiences, in general, did not moderate these declines.

Declining loneliness over time: evidence from american colleges and high schools.

PubMed

Clark, D Matthew T; Loxton, Natalie J; Tobin, Stephanie J

2015-01-01

We examined changes in loneliness over time. Study 1 was a cross-temporal meta-analysis of 48 samples of American college students who completed the Revised UCLA Loneliness Scale (total N = 13,041). In Study 1, loneliness declined from 1978 to 2009 (d = -0.26). Study 2 used a representative sample of high school students from the Monitoring the Future project (total N = 385,153). In Study 2, loneliness declined from 1991 to 2012. Declines were similar among White students (d = -0.14), Black students (d = -0.17), male students (d = -0.11), and female students (d = -0.11). Different loneliness factors showed diverging trends. Subjective isolation declined (d = -0.20), whereas social network isolation increased (d = 0.06). We discuss the declines in loneliness within the context of other cultural changes, including changes to group membership and personality. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Precipitating the Decline of Terrorist Groups: A Systems Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-03-24

terrorist group. The author assumes terrorsst groups are social organizations, therefore terrorist groups come to va~lue organiwaionwsl survival over...ideological or programmatir achievements. The same determinants that cause social organizations to decline will cause terrorist organizations to decline... social orgainizations. eventually come to value organizational su~rvival over ideological or progcinmrnatic achievements. 20 Distribution/Availability

Decline of Ohia (Metrosideros polymorpha) in Hawaii: a review

Treesearch

Charles S. Hodges; Ken T. Adee; John D. Stein; Hulton B. Wood; Robert D. Doty

1986-01-01

Portions of the ohia (Metrosideros polymorpha) forests on the windward slopes of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea on the island of Hawaii began dying in 1952. Little mortality has occurred since 1972. About 50,000 ha are affected by the decline. Individual trees exhibit several symptoms, from slow progressive dieback to rapid death. Seven types of decline...

Aluminum-induced calcium deficiency syndrome in declining red spruce

Treesearch

Walter C. Shortle; Kevin T. Smith

1988-01-01

Prolonged suppression of cambial growth has apparently caused a decline in radial growth in many mature red spruce, Picea rubens. Surveys indicate that this decline occurs in trees throughout the natural range of red spruce and is independent of elevation, tree size, and age class. In addition, crowns of mature red spruce at high elevations across...

Olfactory discrimination predicts cognitive decline among community-dwelling older adults

PubMed Central

Sohrabi, H R; Bates, K A; Weinborn, M G; Johnston, A N B; Bahramian, A; Taddei, K; Laws, S M; Rodrigues, M; Morici, M; Howard, M; Martins, G; Mackay-Sim, A; Gandy, S E; Martins, R N

2012-01-01

The presence of olfactory dysfunction in individuals at higher risk of Alzheimer's disease has significant diagnostic and screening implications for preventive and ameliorative drug trials. Olfactory threshold, discrimination and identification can be reliably recorded in the early stages of neurodegenerative diseases. The current study has examined the ability of various olfactory functions in predicting cognitive decline in a community-dwelling sample. A group of 308 participants, aged 46–86 years old, were recruited for this study. After 3 years of follow-up, participants were divided into cognitively declined and non-declined groups based on their performance on a neuropsychological battery. Assessment of olfactory functions using the Sniffin' Sticks battery indicated that, contrary to previous findings, olfactory discrimination, but not olfactory identification, significantly predicted subsequent cognitive decline (odds ratio=0.869; P<0.05; 95% confidence interval=0.764−0.988). The current study findings confirm previously reported associations between olfactory and cognitive functions, and indicate that impairment in olfactory discrimination can predict future cognitive decline. These findings further our current understanding of the association between cognition and olfaction, and support olfactory assessment in screening those at higher risk of dementia. PMID:22832962

Olfactory discrimination predicts cognitive decline among community-dwelling older adults.

PubMed

Sohrabi, H R; Bates, K A; Weinborn, M G; Johnston, A N B; Bahramian, A; Taddei, K; Laws, S M; Rodrigues, M; Morici, M; Howard, M; Martins, G; Mackay-Sim, A; Gandy, S E; Martins, R N

2012-05-22

The presence of olfactory dysfunction in individuals at higher risk of Alzheimer's disease has significant diagnostic and screening implications for preventive and ameliorative drug trials. Olfactory threshold, discrimination and identification can be reliably recorded in the early stages of neurodegenerative diseases. The current study has examined the ability of various olfactory functions in predicting cognitive decline in a community-dwelling sample. A group of 308 participants, aged 46-86 years old, were recruited for this study. After 3 years of follow-up, participants were divided into cognitively declined and non-declined groups based on their performance on a neuropsychological battery. Assessment of olfactory functions using the Sniffin' Sticks battery indicated that, contrary to previous findings, olfactory discrimination, but not olfactory identification, significantly predicted subsequent cognitive decline (odds ratio = 0.869; P<0.05; 95% confidence interval = 0.764-0.988). The current study findings confirm previously reported associations between olfactory and cognitive functions, and indicate that impairment in olfactory discrimination can predict future cognitive decline. These findings further our current understanding of the association between cognition and olfaction, and support olfactory assessment in screening those at higher risk of dementia.

Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

2011-01-01

We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.

Are infant mortality rate declines exponential? The general pattern of 20th century infant mortality rate decline

PubMed Central

Bishai, David; Opuni, Marjorie

2009-01-01

Background Time trends in infant mortality for the 20th century show a curvilinear pattern that most demographers have assumed to be approximately exponential. Virtually all cross-country comparisons and time series analyses of infant mortality have studied the logarithm of infant mortality to account for the curvilinear time trend. However, there is no evidence that the log transform is the best fit for infant mortality time trends. Methods We use maximum likelihood methods to determine the best transformation to fit time trends in infant mortality reduction in the 20th century and to assess the importance of the proper transformation in identifying the relationship between infant mortality and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We apply the Box Cox transform to infant mortality rate (IMR) time series from 18 countries to identify the best fitting value of lambda for each country and for the pooled sample. For each country, we test the value of λ against the null that λ = 0 (logarithmic model) and against the null that λ = 1 (linear model). We then demonstrate the importance of selecting the proper transformation by comparing regressions of ln(IMR) on same year GDP per capita against Box Cox transformed models. Results Based on chi-squared test statistics, infant mortality decline is best described as an exponential decline only for the United States. For the remaining 17 countries we study, IMR decline is neither best modelled as logarithmic nor as a linear process. Imposing a logarithmic transform on IMR can lead to bias in fitting the relationship between IMR and GDP per capita. Conclusion The assumption that IMR declines are exponential is enshrined in the Preston curve and in nearly all cross-country as well as time series analyses of IMR data since Preston's 1975 paper, but this assumption is seldom correct. Statistical analyses of IMR trends should assess the robustness of findings to transformations other than the log transform. PMID:19698144

Job Changing and the Decline in Long-Distance Migration in the United States.

PubMed

Molloy, Raven; Smith, Christopher L; Wozniak, Abigail

2017-04-01

Interstate migration in the United States has decreased steadily since the 1980s, but little is known about the causes of this decline. We show that declining migration is related to a concurrent secular decline in job changing. Neither trend is primarily due to observable demographic or socioeconomic factors. Rather, we argue that the decline in job changing has caused the decline in migration. After establishing a role for the labor market in declining migration, we turn to the question of why job changing has become less frequent over the past several decades. We find little support for several explanations, including the rise of dual-career households, the decline in middle-skill jobs, occupational licensing, and the need for employees to retain health insurance. Thus, the reasons for these dual trends remain opaque and should be explored further.

T-Tau is Associated with Objective Memory Decline Over Two Years in Persons Seeking Help for Subjective Cognitive Decline: A Report from the Gothenburg-Oslo MCI Study.

PubMed

Hessen, Erik; Nordlund, Arto; Stålhammar, Jacob; Eckerström, Marie; Bjerke, Maria; Eckerström, Carl; Göthlin, Mattias; Fladby, Tormod; Reinvang, Ivar; Wallin, Anders

2015-01-01

There is a need to find very early markers for pre-clinical Alzheimer's disease as interventions early in the disease process are thought to be most effective. The present study aimed to address the potential relation between cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers and reduced cognitive function in a relatively young cohort of memory clinic patients with subjective cognitive decline. 122 patients (mean age 63 years) with subjective cognitive decline were recruited from two university memory clinics and followed for two years. The main finding was that the subgroup with objective memory decline during the study period had significantly higher T-tau at baseline than the group with improved memory. Baseline CSF variables showed a trend toward more pathological values in the patients with memory decline compared to those who improved or remained stable. The baseline memory score of those who declined was significantly better than the baseline score of those who improved over two years. The general trend for the whole group was improved memory and executive test scores. There were no differences in cognitive scores based on CSF quartiles at baseline, nor were there differences in cognitive outcome for patients with early amnestic mild cognitive impairment versus average cognitive function at baseline. The main finding that T-tau rather than amyloid-β was associated with memory decline do not support the prevailing opinion about the chain of events assumed to take place in Alzheimer's disease. In addition, memory decline was not associated with poor baseline memory score. Thus, a memory cut-off indicating low baseline memory would not would have identified the declining group.

Reversal of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease

PubMed Central

Bredesen, Dale E.; Amos, Edwin C.; Canick, Jonathan; Ackerley, Mary; Raji, Cyrus; Fiala, Milan; Ahdidan, Jamila

2016-01-01

Alzheimer's disease is one of the most significant healthcare problems nationally and globally. Recently, the first description of the reversal of cognitive decline in patients with early Alzheimer's disease or its precursors, MCI (mild cognitive impairment) and SCI (subjective cognitive impairment), was published [1]. The therapeutic approach used was programmatic and personalized rather than monotherapeutic and invariant, and was dubbed metabolic enhancement for neurodegeneration (MEND). Patients who had had to discontinue work were able to return to work, and those struggling at work were able to improve their performance. The patients, their spouses, and their co-workers all reported clear improvements. Here we report the results from quantitative MRI and neuropsychological testing in ten patients with cognitive decline, nine ApoE4+ (five homozygous and four heterozygous) and one ApoE4−, who were treated with the MEND protocol for 5-24 months. The magnitude of the improvement is unprecedented, providing additional objective evidence that this programmatic approach to cognitive decline is highly effective. These results have far-reaching implications for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, MCI, and SCI; for personalized programs that may enhance pharmaceutical efficacy; and for personal identification of ApoE genotype. PMID:27294343

FACTORS IMPLICATED IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES IN THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

This study identified the factors responsible for the decline of native amphibians in the U.S. The type of land use, the introduction of exotic animal species, and chemical contamination were identified as the most likely causes of decline.

Terminal decline of episodic memory and perceptual speed in a biracial population.

PubMed

Wilson, Robert S; Rajan, Kumar B; Barnes, Lisa L; Jansen, Willemijn; Amofa, Priscilla; Weuve, Jennifer; Evans, Denis A

2018-05-01

We compared trajectories of terminal cognitive decline in older Black (n = 3372) and White (n = 1756) persons from a defined population who completed tests of episodic memory and perceptual speed at 3-year intervals for up to 18 years. During a mean of 9.9 years of observation, 1608 Black persons and 902 White persons died. Preterminal decline of episodic memory did not differ by race. Terminal episodic memory decline began earlier in Black persons (mean of 4.3 years before death) than in White persons (mean = 3.9 years) and progressed more slowly. By contrast, terminal decline of perceptual speed began earlier in White persons (mean = 5.0 years) than in Black persons (mean = 4.5 years). Rate of perceptual speed decline was more rapid in White persons than in Black persons in both the preterminal and terminal periods. The results indicate that terminal cognitive decline occurs in Black persons but suggest that the rate of cognitive decline during the terminal period is less rapid in Black persons than in White persons.

Education amplifies brain atrophy effect on cognitive decline: implications for cognitive reserve.

PubMed

Mungas, Dan; Gavett, Brandon; Fletcher, Evan; Farias, Sarah Tomaszewski; DeCarli, Charles; Reed, Bruce

2018-08-01

Level of education is often regarded as a proxy for cognitive reserve in older adults. This implies that brain degeneration has a smaller effect on cognitive decline in those with more education, but this has not been directly tested in previous research. We examined how education, quantitative magnetic resonance imaging-based measurement of brain degeneration, and their interaction affect cognitive decline in diverse older adults spanning the spectrum from normal cognition to dementia. Gray matter atrophy was strongly related to cognitive decline. While education was not related to cognitive decline, brain atrophy had a stronger effect on cognitive decline in those with more education. Importantly, high education was associated with slower decline in individuals with lesser atrophy but with faster decline in those with greater atrophy. This moderation effect was observed in Hispanics (who had high heterogeneity of education) but not in African-Americans or Caucasians. These results suggest that education is an indicator of cognitive reserve in individuals with low levels of brain degeneration, but the protective effect of higher education is rapidly depleted as brain degeneration progresses. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling Routes of Chronic Wasting Disease Transmission: Environmental Prion Persistence Promotes Deer Population Decline and Extinction

PubMed Central

Almberg, Emily S.; Cross, Paul C.; Johnson, Christopher J.; Heisey, Dennis M.; Richards, Bryan J.

2011-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R 0, may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress. PMID:21603638

Modeling routes of chronic wasting disease transmission: Environmental prion persistence promotes deer population decline and extinction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Almberg, Emily S.; Cross, Paul C.; Johnson, Christopher J.; Heisey, Dennis M.; Richards, Bryan J.

2011-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R0, may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress.

The impact of retirement on age related cognitive decline - a systematic review.

PubMed

Meng, Annette; Nexø, Mette Andersen; Borg, Vilhelm

2017-07-21

Knowledge on factors affecting the rate of cognitive decline and how to maintain cognitive functioning in old age becomes increasingly relevant. The purpose of the current study was to systematically review the evidence for the impact of retirement on cognitive functioning and on age related cognitive decline. We conducted a systematic literature review, following the principles of the PRISMA statement, of longitudinal studies on the association between retirement and cognition. Only seven studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. We found weak evidence that retirement accelerates the rate of cognitive decline in crystallised abilities, but only for individuals retiring from jobs high in complexity with people. The evidence of the impact of retirement on the rate of decline in fluid cognitive abilities is conflicting. The review revealed a major knowledge gap in regards to the impact of retirement on cognitive decline. More knowledge on the association between retirement and age related cognitive decline as well as knowledge on the mechanisms behind these associations is needed.

Can individual and social patterns of resource use buffer animal populations against resource decline?

PubMed

Banks, Sam C; Lindenmayer, David B; Wood, Jeff T; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Blyton, Michaela D J

2013-01-01

Species in many ecosystems are facing declines of key resources. If we are to understand and predict the effects of resource loss on natural populations, we need to understand whether and how the way animals use resources changes under resource decline. We investigated how the abundance of arboreal marsupials varies in response to a critical resource, hollow-bearing trees. Principally, we asked what mechanisms mediate the relationship between resources and abundance? Do animals use a greater or smaller proportion of the remaining resource, and is there a change in cooperative resource use (den sharing), as the availability of hollow trees declines? Analyses of data from 160 sites surveyed from 1997 to 2007 showed that hollow tree availability was positively associated with abundance of the mountain brushtail possum, the agile antechinus and the greater glider. The abundance of Leadbeater's possum was primarily influenced by forest age. Notably, the relationship between abundance and hollow tree availability was significantly less than 1:1 for all species. This was due primarily to a significant increase by all species in the proportional use of hollow-bearing trees where the abundance of this resource was low. The resource-sharing response was weaker and inconsistent among species. Two species, the mountain brushtail possum and the agile antechinus, showed significant but contrasting relationships between the number of animals per occupied tree and hollow tree abundance. The discrepancies between the species can be explained partly by differences in several aspects of the species' biology, including body size, types of hollows used and social behaviour as it relates to hollow use. Our results show that individual and social aspects of resource use are not always static in response to resource availability and support the need to account for dynamic resource use patterns in predictive models of animal distribution and abundance.

Can Individual and Social Patterns of Resource Use Buffer Animal Populations against Resource Decline?

PubMed Central

Banks, Sam C.; Lindenmayer, David B.; Wood, Jeff T.; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Blyton, Michaela D. J.

2013-01-01

Species in many ecosystems are facing declines of key resources. If we are to understand and predict the effects of resource loss on natural populations, we need to understand whether and how the way animals use resources changes under resource decline. We investigated how the abundance of arboreal marsupials varies in response to a critical resource, hollow-bearing trees. Principally, we asked what mechanisms mediate the relationship between resources and abundance? Do animals use a greater or smaller proportion of the remaining resource, and is there a change in cooperative resource use (den sharing), as the availability of hollow trees declines? Analyses of data from 160 sites surveyed from 1997 to 2007 showed that hollow tree availability was positively associated with abundance of the mountain brushtail possum, the agile antechinus and the greater glider. The abundance of Leadbeater’s possum was primarily influenced by forest age. Notably, the relationship between abundance and hollow tree availability was significantly less than 1∶1 for all species. This was due primarily to a significant increase by all species in the proportional use of hollow-bearing trees where the abundance of this resource was low. The resource-sharing response was weaker and inconsistent among species. Two species, the mountain brushtail possum and the agile antechinus, showed significant but contrasting relationships between the number of animals per occupied tree and hollow tree abundance. The discrepancies between the species can be explained partly by differences in several aspects of the species’ biology, including body size, types of hollows used and social behaviour as it relates to hollow use. Our results show that individual and social aspects of resource use are not always static in response to resource availability and support the need to account for dynamic resource use patterns in predictive models of animal distribution and abundance. PMID:23320100

Lung function decline in bronchial asthma.

PubMed

Cibella, Fabio; Cuttitta, Giuseppina; Bellia, Vincenzo; Bucchieri, Salvatore; D'Anna, Silvestre; Guerrera, Daniela; Bonsignore, Giovanni

2002-12-01

We evaluated the longitudinal changes in lung function and the factors associated with FEV(1) changes over time in a sample of asthmatic subjects. FEV(1) measures were recorded every 3 months over a 5-year follow-up period. To compare all subjects independently of body size, FEV(1) values were normalized for the subject's height at the third power. We evaluated the possible effect of age, baseline FEV(1), disease duration, and FEV(1) variability on the rate of change of FEV(1). We studied 142 subjects with asthma diagnosed on the basis of validated clinical and functional criteria. FEV(1) showed a linear decay with aging in each subject. For a subject 1.65 m in height, the median overall FEV(1) decay was 40.9 mL/yr. FEV(1) decay slopes were significantly influenced by age and sex, being steeper in younger male subjects. A significant interaction was found between age and baseline FEV(1): the FEV(1) decay was significantly higher among younger asthmatics with a poorer baseline functional condition. A longer disease duration was associated with a lower FEV(1) slope. FEV(1) variability was strongly associated with an increased rate of FEV(1) decline. FEV(1) decline in patients with bronchial asthma is significantly influenced by baseline FEV(1), disease duration, and FEV(1) variability. Moreover, the rate of FEV(1) decline seems to increase in younger subjects only when the baseline function is poorer.

Serum Micronutrient Concentrations and Decline in Physical Function Among Older Persons

PubMed Central

Bartali, Benedetta; Frongillo, Edward A.; Guralnik, Jack M.; Stipanuk, Martha H.; Allore, Heather G.; Cherubini, Antonio; Bandinelli, Stefania; Ferrucci, Luigi; Gill, Thomas M.

2009-01-01

Context Maintaining independence of older persons is a public health priority, and identifying the factors that contribute to decline in physical function is needed to prevent or postpone the disablement process. The potential deleterious effect of poor nutrition on decline in physical function in older persons is unclear. Objective To determine whether a low serum concentration of micronutrients is associated with subsequent decline in physical function among older men and women living in the community. Design, Setting, and Participants Longitudinal study of 698 community-living persons 65 years or older who were randomly selected from a population registry in Tuscany, Italy. Participants completed the baseline examination from November 1, 1998, through May 28, 2000, and the 3-year follow-up assessments from November 1, 2001, through March 30, 2003. Main Outcome Measure Decline in physical function was defined as a loss of at least 1 point in the Short Physical Performance Battery during the 3-year follow-up. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for the lowest quartile of each nutrient using the other 3 quartiles combined as the reference group. Two additional and complementary analytical approaches were used to confirm the validity of the results. Results The mean decline in the Short Physical Performance Battery score was 1.1 point. In a logistic regression analysis that was adjusted for potential confounders, only a low concentration of vitamin E (<1.1 μg/mL [<24.9 μmol/L]) was significantly associated with subsequent decline in physical function (OR, 1.62; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.36; P=.01 for association of lowest α-tocopherol quartile with at least a 1-point decline in physical function). In a general linear model, the concentration of vitamin E at baseline, when analyzed as a continuous measure, was significantly associated with the Short Physical Performance Battery score at follow-up after adjustment for potential confounders and Short Physical

A human-driven decline in global burned area.

PubMed

Andela, N; Morton, D C; Giglio, L; Chen, Y; van der Werf, G R; Kasibhatla, P S; DeFries, R S; Collatz, G J; Hantson, S; Kloster, S; Bachelet, D; Forrest, M; Lasslop, G; Li, F; Mangeon, S; Melton, J R; Yue, C; Randerson, J T

2017-06-30

Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Infectious diseases subspecialty: declining demand challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Chandrasekar, Pranatharthi; Havlichek, Daniel; Johnson, Leonard B

2014-12-01

Recent match results from the National Resident Matching Program for the subspecialty of infectious diseases show an ongoing decline in the number of fellowship positions filled, and, more important, in the number of applicants, particularly from the pool of international medical graduates. The main reasons for this declining application rate are unclear; in the absence of hard data, we present our viewpoint on this issue. Difficulties in securing visas for permanent residency in the United States, perception of a limited job market, and the explosive growth in the number of hospitalist positions may be important contributing factors. Infectious Diseases Society of America members need to focus on medical students and medical residents in their formative years. We present potential solutions to this problem of declining interest in the field of infectious diseases. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Drake, John M.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

2016-01-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time.

Assessing Decline: Visualising Progression in Huntington's Disease using a Clinical Dashboard with Enroll-HD Data.

PubMed

Walker, Thomas; Ghosh, Boyd; Kipps, Christopher

2017-01-01

In Huntington's disease (HD), it remains unclear how symptom severity and rate of symptomatic change relates to age and CAG repeat number (CAGn). It is often difficult for clinicians to assess whether an affected individual's symptoms are progressing at a similar rate to their affected peers, limiting their ability to intervene at the most appropriate time. To develop a clinical dashboard that compares an individual's total motor score (TMS), total functional capacity (TFC) and symbol digit modality test (SDMT) scores against a global cohort, controlling for age and CAGn. The dashboard could then be used by clinicians to identify individuals progressing at a disproportionate rate to his or her peers. Annualised longitudinal clinical assessment scores from the Enroll-HD dataset were used to generate decline trajectories of the global cohort, allowing cross-sectional (TMS n = 734; TFC n = 734; SDMT n = 694) and longitudinal (TMS n = 270; TFC n = 270; SDMT n = 247) comparison with individual clinical symptom rating scores, to assess decline relative to affected peers. An electronic dashboard with a dynamic output display was created that rapidly compares clinical symptom rating scores of a specific individual against affected peers from a global cohort of comparable CAGn. This study shows the potential for use of multi-centre trial data in allowing comparison of the individual to a larger group to facilitate improved decision-making for individual patients. Visualisation of these metrics via a clinical dashboard demonstrates how it may aid identification of those with disproportionate decline, offering potential for intervention at specific critical points in the disease course.

Progressive Decline in Photosynthetic Uptake Capacity in a Hemlock Stand Infested by Hemlock Woolly Adelgid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munger, J. W.; David, O.; Barker Plotkin, A.; Schaaf, C.

2017-12-01

Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (HWA) is an invasive insect pest infesting eastern hemlock. Affected hemlock trees typically die within 4-10 years. Black birch seedlings thrive as a thinning canopy allows additional light to reach the forest floor. HWA invasion is a unique disturbance where decline and recovery are occuring simultaneously over an extended period. Although the overall vegetation dynamics associated with HWA disturbance have been well studied, the instantaneous carbon balance at the ecosystem scale has not been closely observed. At the Harvard Forest in central MA we have measured CO2, water and energy eddy flux since 2004. HWA has been present at Harvard Forest since 2002, but defoliation was insignificant prior to 2010. Since 2010 defoliation among trees near the Hemlock tower has increased dramatically and tree mortality is increasing. The pace of HWA attack has been monitored by periodic surveys and stand structure has been observed by 3-d lidar scans. In order to quantify changes in ecosystem metabolism without biasing the results from data filling we evaluate mean ecosystem function derived from a simple model that relates CO2 flux to temperature and light response. The mean carbon uptake efficiency during summer growing season has declined about 13% from before 2010 (pre-HWA) to after 2010 (post-HWA). Ecosystem respiration averaged over these intervals has not changed noticeably over this period. However, annual mean Reco in the summer peaks in 2014 and then declines over subsequent years. Mean uptake coefficients declined from 26 to 14 μmol-C m-2s-1 per μmol-photon m-2s-1 between 2010 and 2015, with some recovery in 2016. Taken together, results show that despite an accelerating forest mortality, ecosystem carbon stock in this infested hemlock stand has not been destabilized and that rates of carbon metabolism are changing more slowly than the decline in hemlock biomass. The ecosystem can partially compensate for loss of foliage as more light

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo.

PubMed

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82% of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28%) and subadult males (29%). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82 % of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28 %) and subadult males (29 %). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

ARTs and the problematic conceptualisation of declining reproduction.

PubMed

Majumdar, Anindita

2018-01-01

The routinisation of assisted reproduction in India has led to its proliferation and the easy identification of infertility. However, clinical and popular discourse tends to focus primarily on age-related deficiencies in reproduction. Here, both the "dangers" of declining reproduction as well as the facilitation of delayed reproduction are areas of focus and eulogisation. Bringing together the diverse elements of the medico-social conversation, the aim of this commentary is to examine the ways in which the ARTs are used to make sense of declining reproduction.

Initial brain aging: heterogeneity of mitochondrial size is associated with decline in complex I-linked respiration in cortex and hippocampus.

PubMed

Thomsen, Kirsten; Yokota, Takashi; Hasan-Olive, Md Mahdi; Sherazi, Niloofar; Fakouri, Nima Borhan; Desler, Claus; Regnell, Christine Elisabeth; Larsen, Steen; Rasmussen, Lene Juel; Dela, Flemming; Bergersen, Linda Hildegard; Lauritzen, Martin

2018-01-01

Brain aging is accompanied by declining mitochondrial respiration. We hypothesized that mitochondrial morphology and dynamics would reflect this decline. Using hippocampus and frontal cortex of a segmental progeroid mouse model lacking Cockayne syndrome protein B (CSB m/m ) and C57Bl/6 (WT) controls and comparing young (2-5 months) to middle-aged mice (13-14 months), we found that complex I-linked state 3 respiration (CI) was reduced at middle age in CSB m/m hippocampus, but not in CSB m/m cortex or WT brain. In hippocampus of both genotypes, mitochondrial size heterogeneity increased with age. Notably, an inverse correlation between heterogeneity and CI was found in both genotypes, indicating that heterogeneity reflects mitochondrial dysfunction. The ratio between fission and fusion gene expression reflected age-related alterations in mitochondrial morphology but not heterogeneity. Mitochondrial DNA content was lower, and hypoxia-induced factor 1α mRNA was greater at both ages in CSB m/m compared to WT brain. Our findings show that decreased CI and increased mitochondrial size heterogeneity are highly associated and point to declining mitochondrial quality control as an initial event in brain aging. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Declines in Sexual Frequency among American Adults, 1989-2014.

PubMed

Twenge, Jean M; Sherman, Ryne A; Wells, Brooke E

2017-11-01

American adults had sex about nine fewer times per year in the early 2010s compared to the late 1990s in data from the nationally representative General Social Survey, N = 26,620, 1989-2014. This was partially due to the higher percentage of unpartnered individuals, who have sex less frequently on average. Sexual frequency declined among the partnered (married or living together) but stayed steady among the unpartnered, reducing the marital/partnered advantage for sexual frequency. Declines in sexual frequency were similar across gender, race, region, educational level, and work status and were largest among those in their 50s, those with school-age children, and those who did not watch pornography. In analyses separating the effects of age, time period, and cohort, the decline was primarily due to birth cohort (year of birth, also known as generation). With age and time period controlled, those born in the 1930s (Silent generation) had sex the most often, whereas those born in the 1990s (Millennials and iGen) had sex the least often. The decline was not linked to longer working hours or increased pornography use. Age had a strong effect on sexual frequency: Americans in their 20s had sex an average of about 80 times per year, compared to about 20 times per year for those in their 60s. The results suggest that Americans are having sex less frequently due to two primary factors: An increasing number of individuals without a steady or marital partner and a decline in sexual frequency among those with partners.

The declining interest in an academic career

PubMed Central

Sauermann, Henry

2017-01-01

There is increasing evidence that science & engineering PhD students lose interest in an academic career over the course of graduate training. It is not clear, however, whether this decline reflects students being discouraged from pursuing an academic career by the challenges of obtaining a faculty job or whether it reflects more fundamental changes in students’ career goals for reasons other than the academic labor market. We examine this question using a longitudinal survey that follows a cohort of PhD students from 39 U.S. research universities over the course of graduate training to document changes in career preferences and to explore potential drivers of such changes. We report two main results. First, although the vast majority of students start the PhD interested in an academic research career, over time 55% of all students remain interested while 25% lose interest entirely. In addition, 15% of all students were never interested in an academic career during their PhD program, while 5% become more interested. Thus, the declining interest in an academic career is not a general phenomenon across all PhD students, but rather reflects a divergence between those students who remain highly interested in an academic career and other students who are no longer interested in one. Second, we show that the decline we observe is not driven by expectations of academic job availability, nor by related factors such as postdoctoral requirements or the availability of research funding. Instead, the decline appears partly due to the misalignment between students’ changing preferences for specific job attributes on the one hand, and the nature of the academic research career itself on the other. Changes in students’ perceptions of their own research ability also play a role, while publications do not. We discuss implications for scientific labor markets, PhD career development programs, and science policy. PMID:28922403

Respiratory muscle decline in Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

PubMed

Khirani, Sonia; Ramirez, Adriana; Aubertin, Guillaume; Boulé, Michèle; Chemouny, Chrystelle; Forin, Véronique; Fauroux, Brigitte

2014-05-01

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) causes progressive respiratory muscle weakness. The aim of the study was to analyze the trend of a large number of respiratory parameters to gain further information on the course of the disease. Retrospective study. 48 boys with DMD, age range between 6 and 19 year old, who were followed in our multidisciplinary neuromuscular clinic between 2001 and 2011. Lung function, blood gases, respiratory mechanics, and muscle strength were measured during routine follow-up over a 10-year period. Only data from patients with at least two measurements were retained. The data of 28 patients were considered for analysis. Four parameters showed an important decline with age. Gastric pressure during cough (Pgas cough) was below normal in all patients with a mean decline of 5.7 ± 3.8 cmH2 O/year. Sniff nasal inspiratory pressure (SNIP) tended to increase first followed by a rapid decline (mean decrease 4.8 ± 4.9 cmH2 O; 5.2 ± 4.4% predicted/year). Absolute forced vital capacity (FVC) values peaked around the age of 13-14 years and remained mainly over 1 L but predicted values showed a mean 4.1 ± 4.4% decline/year. Diaphragmatic tension-time index (TTdi) increased above normal values after the age of 14 years with a mean increase of 0.04 ± 0.04 point/year. This study confirms the previous findings that FVC and SNIP are among the most important parameters to monitor the evolution of DMD. Expiratory muscle strength, assessed by Pgas cough, and the endurance index, TTdi, which are reported for the first time in a large cohort, appeared to be informative too, even though measured through an invasive method. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The declining interest in an academic career.

PubMed

Roach, Michael; Sauermann, Henry

2017-01-01

There is increasing evidence that science & engineering PhD students lose interest in an academic career over the course of graduate training. It is not clear, however, whether this decline reflects students being discouraged from pursuing an academic career by the challenges of obtaining a faculty job or whether it reflects more fundamental changes in students' career goals for reasons other than the academic labor market. We examine this question using a longitudinal survey that follows a cohort of PhD students from 39 U.S. research universities over the course of graduate training to document changes in career preferences and to explore potential drivers of such changes. We report two main results. First, although the vast majority of students start the PhD interested in an academic research career, over time 55% of all students remain interested while 25% lose interest entirely. In addition, 15% of all students were never interested in an academic career during their PhD program, while 5% become more interested. Thus, the declining interest in an academic career is not a general phenomenon across all PhD students, but rather reflects a divergence between those students who remain highly interested in an academic career and other students who are no longer interested in one. Second, we show that the decline we observe is not driven by expectations of academic job availability, nor by related factors such as postdoctoral requirements or the availability of research funding. Instead, the decline appears partly due to the misalignment between students' changing preferences for specific job attributes on the one hand, and the nature of the academic research career itself on the other. Changes in students' perceptions of their own research ability also play a role, while publications do not. We discuss implications for scientific labor markets, PhD career development programs, and science policy.

Cognitive Decline in a Colombian Kindred With Autosomal Dominant Alzheimer Disease

PubMed Central

Aguirre-Acevedo, Daniel C.; Lopera, Francisco; Henao, Eliana; Tirado, Victoria; Muñoz, Claudia; Giraldo, Margarita; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I.; Reiman, Eric M.; Tariot, Pierre N.; Langbaum, Jessica B.; Quiroz, Yakeel T.; Jaimes, Fabian

2017-01-01

IMPORTANCE Data from an autosomal dominant Alzheimer disease (ADAD) kindred were used to track the longitudinal trajectory of cognitive decline associated with preclinical ADAD and explore factors that may modify the rate of cognitive decline. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the onset and rate of cognitive decline during preclinical ADAD and the effect of socioeconomic, vascular, and genetic factors on the cognitive decline. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We performed a retrospective cohort study from January 1, 1995, through June 31, 2012, of individuals from Antioquia, Colombia, who tested positive for the ADAD-associated PSEN1 E280A mutation. Data analysis was performed from August 20, 2014, through November 30, 2015. A mixed-effects model was used to estimate annual rates of change in cognitive test scores and to mark the onset of cognitive decline. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Memory, language, praxis, and total scores from the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer Disease test battery. Chronologic age was used as a time scale in the models. We explore the effects of sex; educational level; socioeconomic status; residence area; occupation type; marital status; history of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia; tobacco and alcohol use; and APOE ε4 on the rates of cognitive decline. RESULTS A total of 493 carriers met the inclusion criteria and were analyzed. A total of 256 carriers had 2 or more assessments. At the time of the initial assessment, participants had a mean (SD) age of 33.4 (11.7) years and a mean (SD) educational level of 7.2 (4.2) years. They were predominantly female (270 [54.8%]), married (293 [59.4%]), and of low socioeconomic status (322 [65.3%]). Word list recall scores provided the earliest indicator of preclinical cognitive decline at 32 years of age, 12 and 17 years before the kindred’s respective median ages at mild cognitive impairment and dementia onset. After the change point, carriers had a statistically significant

Long-term decline and short-term crash of the once abundant Rusty Blackbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greenberg, R.; Blancher, P.; Niven, D.; Droege, S.

2008-01-01

The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus), a formerly common breeding species of boreal wetlands, has exhibited the most marked decline of any North American landbird. North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends in abundance are estimated to be -12.5% / yr over the last 40 years, which is tantamount to a >95% cumulative decline. Trends in abundance calculated from Christmas Bird Counts (CBC) for a similar period indicate a range-wide decline of -5.6% / yr. Qualitative analyses of ornithological accounts suggest the species has been declining for over a century before the period covered by the estimated declines. Several studies document range retraction in the southern boreal forest, whereas limited data suggest that abundance may be more stable in more northerly areas. This pattern is both supported and contradicted by winter declines based in CBC data. The lower estimates of decline in the CBC data compared to BBS is consistent with the idea that the coverage of BBS is biased towards the southern boreal whereas CBC covers the entire winter range. However, the CBC declines are similar between the South Atlantic coast (with populations derived from the southeastern boreal) and the Mississippi Valley (populations from the northwest boreal). The major hypotheses for the decline include degradation of boreal habitats from logging and agricultural agricultural development, mercury contamination, and wetland desiccation resulting from global warming. Other likely reasons for decline include loss or degradation of wooded wetlands of the southeastern U.S and mortality associated with abatement efforts targeting nuisance blackbirds. We present a matrix of hypotheses and predictions that test them based on the geography of decline and more detailed indicators of population health which should form the strategic basis of future research.

What we know and don't know about amphibian declines in the West

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corn, Paul Stephen

1994-01-01

The problem of declining amphibian species is thought to be particularly acute in western North America, but there are many gaps in our knowledge. Although several declines have been well-documented, other declines are anecdotal or hypothesized. Most documented declines are of ranid frogs or toads (Bufo). Species from montane habitats and those occurring in California have been best studied. Status of many desert species is unknown. Habitat destruction and introduced predators are the most common threats to amphibian populations. Some declines may represent natural variation in population size. Causes have not been determined for several cases where common species have declined over large areas. There are important considerations for ecosystem management, whether changes in amphibian populations are natural or caused by human activities. Causes for declines must be known so that management can be prescribed (or proscribed) to eliminate or minimize these causes. The natural variability of amphibian population numbers and the complexity of metapopulation structure emphasize the necessity of considering multiple temporal and spatial scales in ecosystem management. The decline of amphibian species throughout the world has received considerable recent attention (e.g., Blaustein and Wake 1990, Griffiths and Beebee 1992, Yoffe 1992). Much of this attention derives from a workshop held in February, 1990 on declining amphibians sponsored by the National Research Council Board (NRC) on Biology in Irvine, California (Barinaga 1990, Borchelt 1990). Because of media attention in the aftermath of this conference, it is a popular perception that amphibian declines are a new phenomenon that herpetologists have been slow to recognize (Griffiths and Beebee 1992, Quammen 1993). However, concern about amphibian populations in the United States dates back over 20 years. Beginning in the 1960s, a large, well-documented decline of northern leopard frogs (Rana pipiens) occurred in the

Declining amenable mortality: a reflection of health care systems?

PubMed

Gianino, Maria Michela; Lenzi, Jacopo; Fantini, Maria Pia; Ricciardi, Walter; Damiani, Gianfranco

2017-11-15

Some studies have analyzed the association of health care systems variables, such as health service resources or expenditures, with amenable mortality, but the association of types of health care systems with the decline of amenable mortality has yet to be studied. The present study examines whether specific health care system types are associated with different time trend declines in amenable mortality from 2000 to 2014 in 22 European OECD countries. A time trend analysis was performed. Using Nolte and McKee's list, age-standardized amenable mortality rates (SDRs) were calculated as the annual number of deaths over the population aged 0-74 years per 100,000 inhabitants. We classified health care systems according to a deductively generated classification by Böhm. This classification identifies three dimensions that are not entirely independent of each other but follow a clear order: the regulation dimension is first, followed by the financing dimension and finally service provision. We performed a hierarchical semi-log polynomial regression analysis on the annual SDRs to determine whether specific health care systems were associated with different SDR trajectories over time. The results showed a clear decline in SDRs in all 22 health care systems between 2000 and 2014 although at different annual changes (slopes). Regression analysis showed that there was a significant difference among the slopes according to provision dimension. Health care systems with a private provision exhibited a slowdown in the decline of amenable mortality over time. It therefore seems that ownership is the most relevant dimension in determining a different pattern of decline in mortality. All countries experienced decreases in amenable mortality between 2000 and 2014; this decline seems to be partially a reflection of health care systems, especially when affected by the provision dimension. If the private ownership is maintained or promoted by health systems, these findings might be

Processes influencing the duration and decline of epizootics in Schistocephalus solidus.

PubMed

Heins, David C; Baker, John A; Green, Dillon M

2011-06-01

The interplay of intermediate host fish and plerocercoids of diphyllobothriidean cestodes results in epizootics that are deceptively simple, but conceal complex biotic and abiotic interactions shaping each event independently. Although general descriptions of epizootics and some details of biotic interactions between enemies are known, much remains to be discovered about the abiotic and biotic forces and their interactions driving epizootics. This study shows that the duration of an epizootic of Schistocephalus solidus was sustained by high prevalence, mean intensity, and PI (parasite index-parasite : host biomass ratio) levels among young-of-the-year and 1-yr-old threespine sticklebacks. Many infections and most parasite growth in young-of-the-year fish apparently occurred under the ice during the winter. Few new infections appear to have occurred among 1-yr-old fish, which may live 2 yr and sometimes 3 yr. The decline of the epizootic occurred as the recruitment of 1 to 2-yr-old hosts decreased significantly, followed by reduced infections of young-of-the-year fish. Thus, a major factor influencing parasite population dynamics was reduced transmission (probability of infection) as a result of overwinter host mortality among 1-yr-old fish. Mega-epizootics, named and described herein, appear to represent a "perfect storm" phenomenon dependent on a particular and rare combination of circumstances. Less extreme and more gradual epizootics may be more common and play out in myriad ways, because of complex abiotic and biotic factors influencing both parasite and host populations. The interplay of parasite and host resulting in reciprocal effects upon one another occurs during both the emergence and decline phases of an epizootic.

Changing Gender Norms and Marriage Dynamics in the United States.

PubMed

Pessin, Léa

2018-02-01

Using a regional measure of gender norms from the General Social Surveys together with marital histories from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study explored how gender norms were associated with women's marriage dynamics between 1968 and 2012. Results suggested that a higher prevalence of egalitarian gender norms predicted a decline in marriage formation. This decline was, however, only true for women without a college degree. For college-educated women, the association between gender norms and marriage formation became positive when gender egalitarianism prevailed. The findings also revealed an inverted U-shaped relationship between gender norms and divorce: an initial increase in divorce was observed when gender norms were predominantly traditional. The association, however, reversed as gender norms became egalitarian. No differences by education were found for divorce. The findings partially support the gender revolution framework but also highlight greater barriers to marriage for low-educated women as societies embrace gender equality.

High blood pressure and cognitive decline in mild cognitive impairment.

PubMed

Goldstein, Felicia C; Levey, Allan I; Steenland, N Kyle

2013-01-01

To determine whether high blood pressure (BP) levels are associated with faster decline in specific cognitive domains. Prospective longitudinal cohort. Uniform Data Set of the National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Aging Alzheimer's Disease Centers. One thousand three hundred eighty-five participants with a diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and measured BP values at baseline and two annual follow-up visits. Neuropsychological test scores and Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR Sum) score. Participants with MCI with two or three annual occasions of high BP values (systolic BP ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg) had significantly faster decline on neuropsychological measures of visuomotor sequencing, set shifting, and naming than those who were normotensive on all three occasions. High systolic BP values were associated as well with faster decline on the CDR Sum score. Hypertension is associated with faster cognitive decline in persons at risk for dementia. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

High Blood Pressure and Cognitive Decline in Mild Cognitive Impairment

PubMed Central

Goldstein, Felicia C.; Levey, Allan I.; Steenland, N. Kyle

2013-01-01

Objectives To determine whether high blood pressure (BP) levels are associated with faster decline in specific cognitive domains. Design Prospective longitudinal cohort. Setting Uniform Data Set of the National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Aging Alzheimer's Disease Centers. Participants One thousand three hundred eighty-five participants with a diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and measured BP values at baseline and two annual follow-up visits. Measurements Neuropsychological test scores and Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR Sum) score. Results Participants with MCI with two or three annual occasions of high BP values (systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg) had significantly faster decline on neuropsychological measures of visuomotor sequencing, set shifting, and naming than those who were normotensive on all three occasions. High systolic BP values were associated as well with faster decline on the CDR Sum score. Conclusion Hypertension is associated with faster cognitive decline in persons at risk for dementia. PMID:23301925

Measuring the meltdown: drivers of global amphibian extinction and decline.

PubMed

Sodhi, Navjot S; Bickford, David; Diesmos, Arvin C; Lee, Tien Ming; Koh, Lian Pin; Brook, Barry W; Sekercioglu, Cagan H; Bradshaw, Corey J A

2008-02-20

Habitat loss, climate change, over-exploitation, disease and other factors have been hypothesised in the global decline of amphibian biodiversity. However, the relative importance of and synergies among different drivers are still poorly understood. We present the largest global analysis of roughly 45% of known amphibians (2,583 species) to quantify the influences of life history, climate, human density and habitat loss on declines and extinction risk. Multi-model Bayesian inference reveals that large amphibian species with small geographic range and pronounced seasonality in temperature and precipitation are most likely to be Red-Listed by IUCN. Elevated habitat loss and human densities are also correlated with high threat risk. Range size, habitat loss and more extreme seasonality in precipitation contributed to decline risk in the 2,454 species that declined between 1980 and 2004, compared to species that were stable (n = 1,545) or had increased (n = 28). These empirical results show that amphibian species with restricted ranges should be urgently targeted for conservation.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

PubMed

Hefley, Trevor J; Hooten, Mevin B; Drake, John M; Russell, Robin E; Walsh, Daniel P

2016-11-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The decline of North American freshwater fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walsh, Stephen J.; Jelks, Howard L.; Burkhead, Noel M.

2009-01-01

North America has a broad array of freshwater ecosystems because of the continent's complex geography and geological history. Within a multitude of habitats—that include streams, large rivers, natural lakes, springs, and wetlands—rich assemblages of fishes reside, representing diverse taxonomic groups with unique ecological requirements. They face an unprecedented conservation crisis.1 In the last few decades, the proportion of inland fishes of North America, which are considered imperiled or extinct, increased from 20 to 40%.2 Although extinctions have occurred, many species and populations are declining in range size and abundance. The fish biota of the continent as a whole remains diverse; however, we can take action to stem any further declines.

Unexpected decline in tuberculosis cases coincident with economic recession -- United States, 2009

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Since 1953, through the cooperation of state and local health departments, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has collected information on incident cases of tuberculosis (TB) disease in the United States. In 2009, TB case rates declined -11.4%, compared to an average annual -3.8% decline since 2000. The unexpectedly large decline raised concerns that TB cases may have gone unreported. To address the unexpected decline, we examined trends from multiple sources on TB treatment initiation, medication sales, and laboratory and genotyping data on culture-positive TB. Methods We analyzed 142,174 incident TB cases reported to the U. S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System (NTSS) during January 1, 2000-December 31, 2009; TB control program data from 59 public health reporting areas; self-reported data from 50 CDC-funded public health laboratories; monthly electronic prescription claims for new TB therapy prescriptions; and complete genotyping results available for NTSS cases. Accounting for prior trends using regression and time-series analyses, we calculated the deviation between observed and expected TB cases in 2009 according to patient and clinical characteristics, and assessed at what point in time the deviation occurred. Results The overall deviation in TB cases in 2009 was -7.9%, with -994 fewer cases reported than expected (P < .001). We ruled out evidence of surveillance underreporting since declines were seen in states that used new software for case reporting in 2009 as well as states that did not, and we found no cases unreported to CDC in our examination of over 5400 individual line-listed reports in 11 areas. TB cases decreased substantially among both foreign-born and U.S.-born persons. The unexpected decline began in late 2008 or early 2009, and may have begun to reverse in late 2009. The decline was greater in terms of case counts among foreign-born than U.S.-born persons; among the foreign-born, the declines were

Job strain and cognitive decline: a prospective study of the framingham offspring cohort.

PubMed

Agbenyikey, W; Karasek, R; Cifuentes, M; Wolf, P A; Seshadri, S; Taylor, J A; Beiser, A S; Au, R

2015-04-01

Workplace stress is known to be related with many behavioral and disease outcomes. However, little is known about its prospective relationship with measures of cognitive decline. To investigate the association of job strain, psychological demands and job control on cognitive decline. Participants from Framingham Offspring cohort (n=1429), were assessed on job strain, and received neuropsychological assessment approximately 15 years and 21 years afterwards. High job strain and low control were associated with decline in verbal learning and memory. Job strain was associated with decline in word recognition skills. Active job and passive job predicted decline in verbal learning and memory relative to low strain jobs in the younger subgroup. Active job and demands were positively associated with abstract reasoning skills. Job strain and job control may influence decline in cognitive performance.

Marital fertility decline in the Netherlands: child mortality, real wages, and unemployment, 1860-1939.

PubMed

Schellekens, Jona; van Poppel, Frans

2012-08-01

Previous studies of the fertility decline in Europe are often limited to an earlier stage of the marital fertility decline, when the decline tended to be slower and before the large increase in earnings in the 1920s. Starting in 1860 (before the onset of the decline), this study follows marital fertility trends until 1939, when fertility reached lower levels than ever before. Using data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN), this study shows that mortality decline, a rise in real income, and unemployment account for the decline in the Netherlands. This finding suggests that marital fertility decline was an adjustment to social and economic change, leaving little room for attitudinal change that is independent of social and economic change.

Downward Spirals, Boiled Frogs, and Catastrophes: Examining the Rate of School Decline

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hochbein, Craig

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the validity of common assumptions about the rate at which school decline manifests. From a population of 981 elementary schools in the state of Virginia, the author uses three operational definitions of school decline to identify samples of declining schools: Absolute (n = 217), Relational (n = 510), and…

Photosynthetic declines are induced by Phytophthora ramorum infection and exposure to elicitins

Treesearch

Daniel K. Manter; Rick G. Kelsey; Joseph J. Karchesy

2008-01-01

Infection of compatible plants by Phytophthora spp. often leads to a decline in stomatal conductance and photosynthesis, although the mechanistic basis for such declines is not completely understood. In many cases, declines in leaf gas exchange rates have been linked to losses in water supply capacity associated with root and/or xylem. However, the...

The decline of Arab oil revenues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farid, A.M.

1986-01-01

Since 1981, Arab oil revenues have declined by about 40-50%. This has had an enormous impact on the Arab economies as well as on economic and political relations between the Arab world, the industrialised world and the Third world. This book reviews how lower oil revenues have affected Arab countries and the international economy. It also considers the future prospects for Arab oil and the world oil industry. It analyses the various assessment of the life span of oil, the forecasts concerning the development of alternative sources of energy and the factors governing the demand for oil. Although the outlookmore » for the Arab economies appears gloomy in many respects, the book argues that there is potential within the Arab world to overcome the decline in oil revenues. However it will require great efforts in political and economic co-operation amongst Arab states.« less

Canopy Defoliation has More Impact on Carbohydrate Availability than on Hydraulic Function in Declining Scots Pine Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poyatos, R.; Aguadé, D.; Gómez, M.; Mencuccini, M.; Martínez-Vilalta, J.

2013-12-01

Drought-induced defoliation has recently been associated with depletion of carbohydrate reserves and increased mortality risk in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) at its dry limit. Are defoliated pines hydraulically impaired compared to non-defoliated pines? Moreover, how do defoliated pines cope with potentially lethal droughts, as compared to non-defoliated pines in the same population? In order to address these questions, we measured the seasonal dynamics of sap flow and needle water potentials (2010-2012), hydraulic function and non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) (2012) in healthy and defoliated pines in the Prades mountains (NE Spain). The summer drought was mild in 2010, intense in 2012 and extremely long in 2011. Defoliated Scots pines showed higher sap flow per unit leaf area during spring, but they were more sensitive to summer drought (Figure 1). This pattern was associated with a steeper decline in soil-to-leaf hydraulic conductance, which could not be explained by differences in branch vulnerability to embolism across defoliation classes. Accordingly, the native loss of xylem conductivity in branches, measured in 2012, remained similar across defoliation classes and reached >65% at the peak of the drought. However, a steeper vulnerability curve was observed for root xylem of defoliated pines. Xylem diameter variations (2011-2012) will be used to further investigate possible differences in the aboveground/belowground partitioning of hydraulic resistance across defoliation classes. NSC levels varied across tree organs (leaves>branches>roots>trunk) and strongly declined with drought. Defoliated pines displayed reduced NSC levels throughout the study period, despite enhanced water transport capacity and increased gas exchange rates during spring. Overall, the defoliated vs. healthy status seems to be more associated to differences in carbohydrate storage and dynamics than to hydraulic differences per se. However, starch conversion to soluble sugars during

Cognitive decline following incident and preexisting diabetes mellitus in a population sample.

PubMed

Rajan, Kumar B; Arvanitakis, Zoe; Lynch, Elizabeth B; McAninch, Elizabeth A; Wilson, Robert S; Weuve, Jennifer; Barnes, Lisa L; Bianco, Antonio C; Evans, Denis A

2016-10-18

To examine if incident and preexisting diabetes mellitus (DM) were associated with cognitive decline among African Americans (AAs) and European Americans (EAs). Based on a prospective study of 7,740 older adults (mean age 72.3 years, 64% AA, 63% female), DM was ascertained by hypoglycemic medication use and Medicare claims during physician or hospital visits, and cognition by performance on a brief battery for executive functioning, episodic memory, and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Decline in composite and individual tests among those with incident DM, with preexisting DM, and without DM was studied using a linear mixed effects model with and without change point. At baseline, 737 (15%) AAs and 269 (10%) EAs had preexisting DM. Another 721 (17%) AAs and 289 (12%) EAs had incident DM in old age. Following incident DM, cognitive decline increased by 36% among AAs and by 40% among EAs compared to those without DM. No significant difference was observed between AAs and EAs (p = 0.64). However, cognitive decline increased by 17% among AAs with preexisting DM compared to those without DM, but no increased decline was observed among EAs with preexisting DM. In secondary analyses, faster decline in executive functioning and episodic memory was observed following incident DM. In old age, faster cognitive decline was present among AAs and EAs following incident DM, compared to cognitive decline prior to DM, and among those without DM. This underscores the need for stronger prevention and control of DM in old age. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Terminal decline in well-being: The role of social orientation.

PubMed

Gerstorf, Denis; Hoppmann, Christiane A; Löckenhoff, Corinna E; Infurna, Frank J; Schupp, Jürgen; Wagner, Gert G; Ram, Nilam

2016-03-01

Well-being development at the end of life is often characterized by steep deteriorations, but individual differences in these terminal declines are substantial and not yet well understood. This study moved beyond typical consideration of health predictors and explored the role of social orientation and engagement. To do so, we used social variables at the behavioral level (self-ratings of social participation) and the motivational level (valuing social and family goals), assessed 2 to 4 years before death. We applied single- and multiphase growth models to up to 27-year annual longitudinal data from 2,910 now deceased participants of the nation-wide German Socio-Economic Panel Study (Mage at death = 74 years; SD = 14; 48% women). Results revealed that leading a socially active life and prioritizing social goals in late life were independently associated with higher late-life well-being, less pronounced late-life decline, and a later onset of terminal decline. Significant interaction effects suggested that the combination of (reduced) social participation and (lowered) social goals magnifies the effects of each other. Findings also indicated that less decline in social participation was associated with less severe rates and a later onset of well-being decline. We found little evidence that valuing family goals is associated with late-life trajectories of well-being. Associations were independent of key correlates of well-being and mortality, including age at death, gender, education, disability, hospital stays, and goals in other life domains. We discuss possible pathways by which maintaining social orientation into late life may help mitigate terminal decline in well-being. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Surgery-Independent Language Function Decline in Patients Undergoing Awake Craniotomy.

PubMed

Gonen, Tal; Sela, Gal; Yanakee, Ranin; Ram, Zvi; Grossman, Rachel

2017-03-01

Despite selection process before awake-craniotomy, some patients experience an unexpected decline in language functions in the operating room (OR), compared with their baseline evaluation, which may impair their functional monitoring. To investigate this phenomenon we prospectively compared language function the day before surgery and on entrance to the OR. Data were collected prospectively from consecutive patients undergoing awake-craniotomy with intraoperative cortical mapping for resection of gliomas affecting language areas. Language functions of 79 patients were evaluated and compared 1-2 days before surgery and after entering the OR. Changes in functional linguistic performance were analyzed with respect to demographic, clinical, and pathologic characteristics. There was a significant decline in language function, beyond sedation effect, after entering the OR, (from median/interquartile range: 0.94/0.72-0.98 to median/interquartile range: 0.86/0.51-0.94; Z = -7.19, P < 0.001). Univariate analyses revealed that this decline was related to age, preoperative Karnofsky Performance Scale, tumor location, tumor pathology, and preexisting language deficits. Multivariate stepwise regression identified tumor pathology and the presence of preoperative language deficit as significant independent predictors for this functional decline. Patients undergoing awake-craniotomy may experience a substantial decline in language functioning after entering the OR. Tumor grade and the presence of preoperative language deficits were significant risk factors for this phenomenon, suggesting a possible relation between cognitive reserve, psychobehavioral coping abilities and histologic features of a tumor involving language areas. Capturing and identifying this unique population of patients who are prone to experience such language decline may improve our ability in the future to select patients eligible for awake-craniotomy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Terminal Decline in Well-Being: The Role of Social Orientation

PubMed Central

Gerstorf, Denis; Hoppmann, Christiane A.; Löckenhoff, Corinna E.; Infurna, Frank J.; Schupp, Jürgen; Wagner, Gert G.; Ram, Nilam

2016-01-01

Well-being development at the end of life is often characterized by steep deteriorations, but individual differences in these terminal declines are substantial and not yet well understood. This study moved beyond the typical consideration of health predictors and explored the role of social orientation and engagement. To do so, we made use of social variables at the behavioral level (self-ratings of social participation) and the motivational level (valuing social and family goals), assessed two to four years before death. We applied single- and multi-phase growth models to up to 27-year annual longitudinal data from 2,910 now deceased participants of the nation-wide German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP; age at death: M = 74 years; SD = 14; 48% women). Results revealed that leading a socially active life and prioritizing social goals in late life were independently associated with higher late-life well-being, less pronounced late-life decline, and a later onset of terminal decline. Significant interaction effects suggested that the effects of (reduced) social participation and (lowered) social goals were compounding each other.compound. Findings also indicated that less decline in social participation was associated with shallower rates and a later onset of well-being decline. We found little evidence that valuing family goals is associated with late-life trajectories of well-being. Associations were independent of key correlates of well-being and mortality, including age at death, gender, education, disability, hospital stays, and goals in other life domains. We discuss possible pathways by which maintaining social orientation into late life may help mitigate terminal decline in well-being. PMID:26950226

Recent widespread tree growth decline despite increasing atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Silva, Lucas C R; Anand, Madhur; Leithead, Mark D

2010-07-21

The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO(2) and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends. Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE) and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9 degrees latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53% increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment--BAI) has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist. Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due to warming induced stress but are also suggestive of additional stressors. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels during the past century resulted in consistent increases in water use efficiency, but this did not prevent growth decline. These findings challenge current predictions of increasing terrestrial carbon stocks under climate change scenarios.

Quality of life declines after first ischemic stroke

PubMed Central

Dhamoon, M.S.; Moon, Y.P.; Paik, M.C.; Boden-Albala, B.; Rundek, T.; Sacco, R.L.; Elkind, M.S.V.

2010-01-01

Objectives: Quality of life (QOL) after stroke is poorly characterized. We sought to determine long-term natural history and predictors of QOL among first ischemic stroke survivors without stroke recurrence or myocardial infarction (MI). Methods: In the population-based, multiethnic Northern Manhattan Study, QOL was prospectively assessed at 6 months and annually for 5 years using the Spitzer QOL index (QLI), a 10-point scale. Functional status was assessed using the Barthel Index (BI) at regular intervals, and cognition using the Mini-Mental State Examination at 1 year. Generalized estimating equations estimated the association between patient characteristics and repeated QOL measures over 5 years. Follow-up was censored at death, recurrent stroke, or MI. Results: There were 525 incident ischemic stroke patients ≥40 years (mean age 68.6 ± 12.4 years). QLI declined after stroke (annual change −0.10, 95% confidence interval −0.17 to −0.04), after adjusting for age, sex, race-ethnicity, education, insurance, depressed mood, stroke severity, bladder continence, and stroke laterality. This decline remained when BI ≥95 was added to the model as a time-dependent covariate, and functional status also predicted QLI. Changes in QLI over time differed by insurance status (p for interaction = 0.0017), with a decline for those with Medicaid/no insurance (p < 0.0001) but not Medicare/private insurance (p = 0.98). Conclusions: In this population-based study, QOL declined annually up to 5 years after stroke among survivors free of recurrence or MI and independently of other risk factors. QLI declined more among Medicaid patients and was associated with age, mood, stroke severity, urinary incontinence, functional status, cognition, and stroke laterality. GLOSSARY BI = Barthel Index; CAD = coronary artery disease; CHF = congestive heart failure; CI = confidence interval; CUMC = Columbia University Medical Center; DM = diabetes mellitus; GEE = generalized estimating

Aβ-related memory decline in APOE ε4 noncarriers: Implications for Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Lim, Yen Ying; Laws, Simon M; Villemagne, Victor L; Pietrzak, Robert H; Porter, Tenielle; Ames, David; Fowler, Christopher; Rainey-Smith, Stephanie; Snyder, Peter J; Martins, Ralph N; Salvado, Olivier; Bourgeat, Pierrick; Rowe, Christopher C; Masters, Colin L; Maruff, Paul

2016-04-26

As the absence of Aβ-related memory decline in APOE ε4 noncarriers may be due to the relative brevity of previous studies, we aimed to characterize Aβ-related cognitive decline over 72 months in APOE ε4 carriers and noncarriers who were cognitively normal (CN). CN older adults (n = 423) underwent Aβ imaging and APOE genotyping. Participants completed comprehensive neuropsychological testing at baseline 18-, 36-, 54-, and 72-month assessments. Relative to Aβ- CN ε4 noncarriers, both Aβ+ CN ε4 carriers and noncarriers showed significantly increased decline in measures of memory, language, and executive function as well as higher rates of progression to a clinical classification of mild cognitive impairment. Memory decline was greater in Aβ+ CN ε4 carriers than in Aβ+ CN ε4 noncarriers. No cognitive decline was evident in Aβ- CN ε4 carriers. In CN older adults, Aβ+ is associated with memory decline in ε4 noncarriers; however, the rate of this decline is much slower than that observed in ε4 carriers. These data indicate that the processes by which ε4 carriage increases the rate of Aβ-related cognitive decline occur in the preclinical stage of Alzheimer disease. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Job Strain and Cognitive Decline: A Prospective Study of the Framingham Offspring Cohort

PubMed Central

Agbenyikey, W; Karasek, R; Cifuentes, M; Wolf, PA; Seshadri, S; Taylor, JA; Beiser, AS; Au, R

2017-01-01

Background Workplace stress is known to be related with many behavioral and disease outcomes. However, little is known about its prospective relationship with measures of cognitive decline. Objective To investigate the association of job strain, psychological demands and job control on cognitive decline. Methods Participants from Framingham Offspring cohort (n=1429), were assessed on job strain, and received neuropsychological assessment approximately 15 years and 21 years afterwards. Results High job strain and low control were associated with decline in verbal learning and memory. Job strain was associated with decline in word recognition skills. Active job and passive job predicted decline in verbal learning and memory relative to low strain jobs in the younger subgroup. Active job and demands were positively associated with abstract reasoning skills. Conclusions Job strain and job control may infuence decline in cognitive performance. PMID:25890602

Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

Treesearch

John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

2006-01-01

Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

The link between rapid enigmatic amphibian decline and the globally emerging chytrid fungus.

PubMed

Lötters, Stefan; Kielgast, Jos; Bielby, Jon; Schmidtlein, Sebastian; Bosch, Jaime; Veith, Michael; Walker, Susan F; Fisher, Matthew C; Rödder, Dennis

2009-09-01

Amphibians are globally declining and approximately one-third of all species are threatened with extinction. Some of the most severe declines have occurred suddenly and for unknown reasons in apparently pristine habitats. It has been hypothesized that these "rapid enigmatic declines" are the result of a panzootic of the disease chytridiomycosis caused by globally emerging amphibian chytrid fungus. In a Species Distribution Model, we identified the potential distribution of this pathogen. Areas and species from which rapid enigmatic decline are known significantly overlap with those of highest environmental suitability to the chytrid fungus. We confirm the plausibility of a link between rapid enigmatic decline in worldwide amphibian species and epizootic chytridiomycosis.

The Decline of Direct Newspaper Competition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosse, James N.

1980-01-01

Describes the decline of direct newspaper competition in terms of the loss of effective newspaper market segmentation. Examines the following influences on market segmentation: shift in advertising demand, advertiser preferences for differentiated audiences, shift in subscriber demand, growth of alternative media, increasing production costs, and…

Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior

PubMed Central

Pananos, A. Demetri; Bury, Thomas M.; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P.; Nyhan, Brendan; Bauch, Chris T.

2017-01-01

Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena—special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles–mumps–rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014–2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior–disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing “critical speeding up” whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. PMID:29229821

Functional brain imaging of episodic memory decline in ageing.

PubMed

Nyberg, L

2017-01-01

The episodic long-term memory system supports remembering of events. It is considered to be the most age-sensitive system, with an average onset of decline around 60 years of age. However, there is marked interindividual variability, such that some individuals show faster than average change and others show no or very little change. This variability may be related to the risk of developing dementia, with elevated risk for individuals with accelerated episodic memory decline. Brain imaging with functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signalling or positron emission tomography (PET) has been used to reveal the brain bases of declining episodic memory in ageing. Several studies have demonstrated a link between age-related episodic memory decline and the hippocampus during active mnemonic processing, which is further supported by studies of hippocampal functional connectivity in the resting state. The hippocampus interacts with anterior and posterior neocortical regions to support episodic memory, and alterations in hippocampus-neocortex connectivity have been shown to contribute to impaired episodic memory. Multimodal MRI studies and more recently hybrid MRI/PET studies allow consideration of various factors that can influence the association between the hippocampal BOLD signal and memory performance. These include neurovascular factors, grey and white matter structural alterations, dopaminergic neurotransmission, amyloid-Β and glucose metabolism. Knowledge about the brain bases of episodic memory decline can guide interventions to strengthen memory in older adults, particularly in those with an elevated risk of developing dementia, with promising results for combinations of cognitive and physical stimulation. © 2016 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

Diagnosing the decline in pharmaceutical R&D efficiency.

PubMed

Scannell, Jack W; Blanckley, Alex; Boldon, Helen; Warrington, Brian

2012-03-01

The past 60 years have seen huge advances in many of the scientific, technological and managerial factors that should tend to raise the efficiency of commercial drug research and development (RD). Yet the number of new drugs approved per billion US dollars spent on RD has halved roughly every 9 years since 1950, falling around 80-fold in inflation-adjusted terms. There have been many proposed solutions to the problem of declining RD efficiency. However, their apparent lack of impact so far and the contrast between improving inputs and declining output in terms of the number of new drugs make it sensible to ask whether the underlying problems have been correctly diagnosed. Here, we discuss four factors that we consider to be primary causes, which we call the 'better than the Beatles' problem; the 'cautious regulator' problem; the 'throw money at it' tendency; and the 'basic research-brute force' bias. Our aim is to provoke a more systematic analysis of the causes of the decline in RD efficiency.

Linking performance decline to choking: players' perceptions in basketball.

PubMed

Fryer, Ashley Marie; Tenenbaum, Gershon; Chow, Graig M

2018-02-01

This study was aimed at examining how basketball players view unexpected performance errors in basketball, and under what conditions they perceive them as choking. Fifty-three basketball players were randomly assigned into 2 groups (game half) to evaluate the linkage between performance decline and choking as a function of game-time, score gap and game half. Within each group, players viewed 8 scenario clips, which featured a different player conducting an error, and subsequently rated the extent of performance decline, the instance of choking and the salience of various performance attributions regarding the error. The analysis revealed that choking was most salient in the 2nd half of the game, but an error was perceived as choking more saliently in the beginning of the 2nd half. This trend was also shown for players' perception of performance decline. Players' ratings of the attributions assigned to errors, however, revealed that during the end of the 2nd half, time pressure and lack of concentration were the causes of errors. Overall, the results provide evidence towards a conceptual framework linking performance decline to the perception of choking, and that errors conducted by players are perceived as choking when there is not a salient reason to suggest its occurrence.

Declines in moose population density at Isle Royle National Park, MI, USA and accompanied changes in landscape patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

De Jager, N. R.; Pastor, J.

2009-01-01

Ungulate herbivores create patterns of forage availability, plant species composition, and soil fertility as they range across large landscapes and consume large quantities of plant material. Over time, herbivore populations fluctuate, producing great potential for spatio-temporal landscape dynamics. In this study, we extend the spatial and temporal extent of a long-term investigation of the relationship of landscape patterns to moose foraging behavior at Isle Royale National Park, MI. We examined how patterns of browse availability and consumption, plant basal area, and soil fertility changed during a recent decline in the moose population. We used geostatistics to examine changes in the nature of spatial patterns in two valleys over 18 years and across short-range and long-range distance scales. Landscape patterns of available and consumed browse changed from either repeated patches or randomly distributed patches in 1988-1992 to random point distributions by 2007 after a recent record high peak followed by a rapid decline in the moose population. Patterns of available and consumed browse became decoupled during the moose population low, which is in contrast to coupled patterns during the earlier high moose population. Distributions of plant basal area and soil nitrogen availability also switched from repeated patches to randomly distributed patches in one valley and to random point distributions in the other valley. Rapid declines in moose population density may release vegetation and soil fertility from browsing pressure and in turn create random landscape patterns. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Seasonal differences in extinction and colonization drive occupancy dynamics of an imperilled amphibian.

PubMed

Randall, Lea A; Smith, Des H V; Jones, Breana L; Prescott, David R C; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2015-01-01

A detailed understanding of the population dynamics of many amphibian species is lacking despite concerns about declining amphibian biodiversity and abundance. This paper explores temporal patterns of occupancy and underlying extinction and colonization dynamics in a regionally imperiled amphibian species, the Northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) in Alberta. Our study contributes to elucidating regional occupancy dynamics at northern latitudes, where climate extremes likely have a profound effect on seasonal occupancy. The primary advantage of our study is its wide geographic scale (60,000 km2) and the use of repeat visual surveys each spring and summer from 2009-2013. We find that occupancy varied more dramatically between seasons than years, with low spring and higher summer occupancy. Between spring and summer, colonization was high and extinction low; inversely, colonization was low and extinction high over the winter. The dynamics of extinction and colonization are complex, making conservation management challenging. Our results reveal that Northern leopard frog occupancy was constant over the last five years and thus there is no evidence of decline or recovery within our study area. Changes to equilibrium occupancy are most sensitive to increasing colonization in the spring or declining extinction in the summer. Therefore, conservation and management efforts should target actions that are likely to increase spring colonization; this could be achieved through translocations or improving the quality or access to breeding habitat. Because summer occupancy is already high, it may be difficult to improve further. Nevertheless, summer extinction could be reduced by predator control, increasing water quality or hydroperiod of wetlands, or increasing the quality or quantity of summer habitat.

Abrupt Decline in Tuberculosis among Foreign-Born Persons in the United States

PubMed Central

Baker, Brian J.; Winston, Carla A.; Liu, Yecai; France, Anne Marie; Cain, Kevin P.

2016-01-01

While the number of reported tuberculosis (TB) cases in the United States has declined over the past two decades, TB morbidity among foreign-born persons has remained persistently elevated. A recent unexpected decline in reported TB cases among foreign-born persons beginning in 2007 provided an opportunity to examine contributing factors and inform future TB control strategies. We investigated the relative influence of three factors on the decline: 1) changes in the size of the foreign-born population through immigration and emigration, 2) changes in distribution of country of origin among foreign-born persons, and 3) changes in the TB case rates among foreign-born subpopulations. Using data from the U.S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System and the American Community Survey, we examined TB case counts, TB case rates, and population estimates, stratified by years since U.S. entry and country of origin. Regression modeling was used to assess statistically significant changes in trend. Among foreign-born recent entrants (<3 years since U.S. entry), we found a 39.5% decline (-1,013 cases) beginning in 2007 (P<0.05 compared to 2000–2007) and ending in 2011 (P<0.05 compared to 2011–2014). Among recent entrants from Mexico, 80.7% of the decline was attributable to a decrease in population, while the declines among recent entrants from the Philippines, India, Vietnam, and China were almost exclusively (95.5%–100%) the result of decreases in TB case rates. Among foreign-born non-recent entrants (≥3 years since U.S. entry), we found an 8.9% decline (-443 cases) that resulted entirely (100%) from a decrease in the TB case rate. Both recent and non-recent entrants contributed to the decline in TB cases; factors contributing to the decline among recent entrants varied by country of origin. Strategies that impact both recent and non-recent entrants (e.g., investment in overseas TB control) as well as those that focus on non-recent entrants (e.g., expanded targeted

The fertility decline in Kenya.

PubMed

Robinson, W C; Harbison, S F

1995-01-01

In Sub-Saharan Africa Kenya is a prime example of a country experiencing a rapid decline in fertility and greater contraceptive prevalence. These changes have occurred since 1980 when fertility was high at 8.0 children per woman. In 1993 the total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.4, and the growth rate declined to about 2.0%. This transition is swifter than any country in contemporary Asia or historical Europe. The likely projection for Kenya is attainment of replacement level fertility during the 2020s and a leveling of population at about 100 million persons. Fertility has declined the most in urban areas and central and eastern regions. Bongaarts' proximate determinants (TFR, total marital fertility rate, total natural marital fertility rate, and total fecundity) are reduced to the proportion of currently married women using contraception, the proportion in lactational nonfecund status, and the proportion currently married. Actual fertility change is accounted for by total fertility change of 3.0 children. Lactational infecundability accounts for 0.5 potential births, and changes in marital fertility account for 1.0 reduced births per woman. About 70% of fertility reduction is accounted for by contraception and abortion. During 1977-78 80% of fertility control was due to lactational nonfecundity, 10% to nonmarriage, and 10% to contraception. In 1993 lactational nonfecundity accounted for 50% of the reduction, nonmarriage for 20%, and abortion about 30%. Future fertility is expected to be dependent on contraceptive prevalence. Kenya has experienced the Coale paradigm of preconditions necessary for demographic transition (willing, ready, and able). High fertility in Africa is not intractable. Creating the change in attitudes that leads to readiness is linked to education, health, and exposure to modernizing media and urban lifestyles. The public sector family planning program in Kenya has created the opportunity for access and availability of contraception. The key

The Decline of Australian Educational Salaries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zappala, Jon; Lombard, Marc

1991-01-01

A 20-year study indicated that educational salaries at all levels have continuously declined relative to the average weekly earnings in Australia. Possible explanations are the role of government, the national teachers' union policy toward different payment systems, and the cultural attitude toward intellectual endeavor. (JOW)

Sensitivity, child regulatory processes, and naturally occurring declines in antisocial behavior across childhood.

PubMed

Buck, Katharine Ann

2014-12-01

Despite considerable research on why antisocial behavior develops and interventions that reduce it, aspects of everyday family processes that may promote naturally occurring declines in antisocial behavior or that may result from such declines in most children without intervention are poorly understood. The current study explored family processes that may enable children to replace antisocial tendencies and the effects that declines in antisocial behavior may have on parenting and child regulatory processes. Longitudinal data from 1,022 children (54 months-6th grade) from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development were examined. Findings demonstrated that naturally occurring declines in antisocial behavior both predicted and were predicted by maternal sensitivity, emotion regulation, and social skills. These declines predicted but were not predicted by declines in hostile attributions. The data revealed multiple indirect paths, which highlight the complex nature of these variables across development.

THE FAST DECLINING TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA 2003gs, AND EVIDENCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION IN NEAR-INFRARED ABSOLUTE MAGNITUDES OF FAST DECLINERS AT MAXIMUM LIGHT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krisciunas, Kevin; Marion, G. H.; Suntzeff, Nicholas B.

2009-12-15

We obtained optical photometry of SN 2003gs on 49 nights, from 2 to 494 days after T(B {sub max}). We also obtained near-IR photometry on 21 nights. SN 2003gs was the first fast declining Type Ia SN that has been well observed since SN 1999by. While it was subluminous in optical bands compared to more slowly declining Type Ia SNe, it was not subluminous at maximum light in the near-IR bands. There appears to be a bimodal distribution in the near-IR absolute magnitudes of Type Ia SNe at maximum light. Those that peak in the near-IR after T(B {sub max})more » are subluminous in the all bands. Those that peak in the near-IR prior to T(B {sub max}), such as SN 2003gs, have effectively the same near-IR absolute magnitudes at maximum light regardless of the decline rate {delta}m {sub 15}(B). Near-IR spectral evidence suggests that opacities in the outer layers of SN 2003gs are reduced much earlier than for normal Type Ia SNe. That may allow {gamma} rays that power the luminosity to escape more rapidly and accelerate the decline rate. This conclusion is consistent with the photometric behavior of SN 2003gs in the IR, which indicates a faster than normal decline from approximately normal peak brightness.« less

Seagrass on the brink: Decline of threatened seagrass Posidonia australis continues following protection

PubMed Central

Evans, Suzanna M.; Blick, Ray A. J.; Poore, Alistair G. B.; Vergés, Adriana

2018-01-01

Seagrasses are in decline globally due to sustained pressure from coastal development, water quality declines and the ongoing threat from climate change. The result of this decline has been a change in coastal productivity, a reduction in critical fisheries habitat and increased erosion. Attempts to slow this decline have included legislative protection of habitat and direct restoration efforts. Monitoring the success of these approaches requires tracking changes in the abundance of seagrasses, but such monitoring is frequently conducted at either too coarse a spatial scale, or too infrequently to adequately detect changes within individual meadows. Here, we used high resolution aerial imagery to quantify the change in meadows dominated by Posidonia australis over five years at 14 sites in five estuaries in south-eastern Australia. Australia has some of the world's most diverse and extensive seagrass meadows, but the widely distributed P. australis has a slow growth rate, recovers poorly after disturbance, and suffers runaway attrition if the conditions for recovery are not met. In 2010, after declines of 12–57% between the 1940s and 1980s, P. australis was listed as a threatened ecological community in New South Wales. We quantified changes in area at fine spatial scales and, where loss was observed, describe the general patterns of temporal decline within each meadow. Our results demonstrate that seagrass meadows dominated by P. australis underwent declines of ~ 2–40% total area at 11 out of 14 study sites between 2009 and 2014. In the iconic Sydney Harbour, our analyses suggest that P. australis meadows are declining at an average rate greater than 10% yr-1, exceeding the global rate of seagrass decline. Highlighting these alarming declines across the study region should serve as means to prioritise management action and review the effectiveness of legislative listing as a method to limit impacts at an ecosystem level. PMID:29624579

Quantifying temporal trends in fisheries abundance using Bayesian dynamic linear models: A case study of riverine Smallmouth Bass populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schall, Megan K.; Blazer, Vicki S.; Lorantas, Robert M.; Smith, Geoffrey; Mullican, John E.; Keplinger, Brandon J.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Detecting temporal changes in fish abundance is an essential component of fisheries management. Because of the need to understand short‐term and nonlinear changes in fish abundance, traditional linear models may not provide adequate information for management decisions. This study highlights the utility of Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) as a tool for quantifying temporal dynamics in fish abundance. To achieve this goal, we quantified temporal trends of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu catch per effort (CPE) from rivers in the mid‐Atlantic states, and we calculated annual probabilities of decline from the posterior distributions of annual rates of change in CPE. We were interested in annual declines because of recent concerns about fish health in portions of the study area. In general, periods of decline were greatest within the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania. The declines in CPE began in the late 1990s—prior to observations of fish health problems—and began to stabilize toward the end of the time series (2011). In contrast, many of the other rivers investigated did not have the same magnitude or duration of decline in CPE. Bayesian DLMs provide information about annual changes in abundance that can inform management and are easily communicated with managers and stakeholders.

Recent Widespread Tree Growth Decline Despite Increasing Atmospheric CO2

PubMed Central

Silva, Lucas C. R.; Anand, Madhur; Leithead, Mark D.

2010-01-01

Background The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE) and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9° latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53% increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment – BAI) has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist. Conclusions Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due to warming induced stress but are also suggestive of additional stressors. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels during the past century resulted in consistent increases in water use efficiency, but this did not prevent growth decline. These findings challenge current predictions of increasing terrestrial carbon stocks under climate change scenarios. PMID:20657763

Parallel declines in pollinators and insect-pollinated plants in Britain and the Netherlands.

PubMed

Biesmeijer, J C; Roberts, S P M; Reemer, M; Ohlemüller, R; Edwards, M; Peeters, T; Schaffers, A P; Potts, S G; Kleukers, R; Thomas, C D; Settele, J; Kunin, W E

2006-07-21

Despite widespread concern about declines in pollination services, little is known about the patterns of change in most pollinator assemblages. By studying bee and hoverfly assemblages in Britain and the Netherlands, we found evidence of declines (pre-versus post-1980) in local bee diversity in both countries; however, divergent trends were observed in hoverflies. Depending on the assemblage and location, pollinator declines were most frequent in habitat and flower specialists, in univoltine species, and/or in nonmigrants. In conjunction with this evidence, outcrossing plant species that are reliant on the declining pollinators have themselves declined relative to other plant species. Taken together, these findings strongly suggest a causal connection between local extinctions of functionally linked plant and pollinator species.

Do improvement harvests mitigate oak decline in Missouri Ozark forests?

Treesearch

John P. Dwyer; John M. Kabrick; James Wetteroff

2007-01-01

Since the 1970s, oak decline has been a chronic problem throughout the oak-dominated forests of the Missouri Ozarks. Prior research indicates that environmental stress, particularly drought, leads to the onset of oak decline. Consequently, some scientists and managers have advocated thinning and intermediate harvesting to maintain or improve tree vigor and growth,...

Decision Making Process and Declining Enrollments in Northern New England

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

St. Cyr, Robert

2017-01-01

This research was conducted as a qualitative comparative case study of two Northern New England school districts that were in the process of responding to declining enrollments. The purpose of the study was to explore decision-making through the lens of declining enrollments. An award winning rural school in an affluent town with high performing…

Population and geographic range dynamics: implications for conservation planning

PubMed Central

Mace, Georgina M.; Collen, Ben; Fuller, Richard A.; Boakes, Elizabeth H.

2010-01-01

Continuing downward trends in the population sizes of many species, in the conservation status of threatened species, and in the quality, extent and connectedness of habitats are of increasing concern. Identifying the attributes of declining populations will help predict how biodiversity will be impacted and guide conservation actions. However, the drivers of biodiversity declines have changed over time and average trends in abundance or distributional change hide significant variation among species. While some populations are declining rapidly, the majority remain relatively stable and others are increasing. Here we dissect out some of the changing drivers of population and geographic range change, and identify biological and geographical correlates of winners and losers in two large datasets covering local population sizes of vertebrates since 1970 and the distributions of Galliform birds over the last two centuries. We find weak evidence for ecological and biological traits being predictors of local decline in range or abundance, but stronger evidence for the role of local anthropogenic threats and environmental change. An improved understanding of the dynamics of threat processes and how they may affect different species will help to guide better conservation planning in a continuously changing world. PMID:20980321

Measuring the Meltdown: Drivers of Global Amphibian Extinction and Decline

PubMed Central

Sodhi, Navjot S.; Bickford, David; Diesmos, Arvin C.; Lee, Tien Ming; Koh, Lian Pin; Brook, Barry W.; Sekercioglu, Cagan H.; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.

2008-01-01

Habitat loss, climate change, over-exploitation, disease and other factors have been hypothesised in the global decline of amphibian biodiversity. However, the relative importance of and synergies among different drivers are still poorly understood. We present the largest global analysis of roughly 45% of known amphibians (2,583 species) to quantify the influences of life history, climate, human density and habitat loss on declines and extinction risk. Multi-model Bayesian inference reveals that large amphibian species with small geographic range and pronounced seasonality in temperature and precipitation are most likely to be Red-Listed by IUCN. Elevated habitat loss and human densities are also correlated with high threat risk. Range size, habitat loss and more extreme seasonality in precipitation contributed to decline risk in the 2,454 species that declined between 1980 and 2004, compared to species that were stable (n = 1,545) or had increased (n = 28). These empirical results show that amphibian species with restricted ranges should be urgently targeted for conservation. PMID:18286193

Telmisartan prevented cognitive decline partly due to PPAR-{gamma} activation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mogi, Masaki; Li Jianmei; Tsukuda, Kana

Telmisartan is a unique angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) and partial agonist of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)-{gamma}. Here, we investigated the preventive effect of telmisartan on cognitive decline in Alzheimer disease. In ddY mice, intracerebroventricular injection of A{beta} 1-40 significantly attenuated their cognitive function evaluated by shuttle avoidance test. Pretreatment with a non-hypotensive dose of telmisartan significantly inhibited such cognitive decline. Interestingly, co-treatment with GW9662, a PPAR-{gamma} antagonist, partially inhibited this improvement of cognitive decline. Another ARB, losartan, which has less PPAR-{gamma} agonistic effect, also inhibited A{beta}-injection-induced cognitive decline; however the effect was smaller than that of telmisartan and was notmore » affected by GW9662. Immunohistochemical staining for A{beta} showed the reduced A{beta} deposition in telmisartan-treated mice. However, this reduction was not observed in mice co-administered GW9662. These findings suggest that ARB has a preventive effect on cognitive impairment in Alzheimer disease, and telmisartan, with PPAR-{gamma} activation, could exert a stronger effect.« less

Declines in marathon performance: Sex differences in elite and recreational athletes.

PubMed

Zavorsky, Gerald S; Tomko, Kelly A; Smoliga, James M

2017-01-01

The first aim of this study was to determine the age group at which marathon performance declines in top male and female runners and to compare that to the runners of average ability. Another aim of this of this study was to examine the age-related yearly decline in marathon performance between age group winners and the average marathon finisher. Data from the New York (NYC), Boston, and Chicago marathons from 2001-2016 were analyzed. Age, sex, and location were used in multiple linear regression models to determine the rate of decline in marathon times. Winners of each age group were assessed in 5-year increments from 16 through 74 years old (n = 47 per age group). The fastest times were between 25-34 years old, with overall champion males at 28.3 years old, and overall champion females at 30.8 years old (p = 0.004). At 35 years of age up to 74 years of age, female age group winners had a faster yearly decline in marathon finishing times compared to male age group winners, irrespective of marathon location [women = (min:sec) 2:33 per year, n = 336; men = 2:06 per year, n = 373, p < 0.01]. The median times between each age group only slowed beginning at 50 years old, thereafter the decline was similar between both men and women (women = 2:36, n = 140; men = 2:57, n = 150, p = 0.11). The median times were fastest at Boston and similar between Chicago and NYC. In conclusion, the rate of decline at 35 years old up to 74 years old is roughly linear (adjusted r2 = 0.88, p < 0.001) with female age group winners demonstrating 27 s per year greater decline per year compared to male age group winners.

Declines in marathon performance: Sex differences in elite and recreational athletes

PubMed Central

Tomko, Kelly A.; Smoliga, James M.

2017-01-01

The first aim of this study was to determine the age group at which marathon performance declines in top male and female runners and to compare that to the runners of average ability. Another aim of this of this study was to examine the age-related yearly decline in marathon performance between age group winners and the average marathon finisher. Data from the New York (NYC), Boston, and Chicago marathons from 2001–2016 were analyzed. Age, sex, and location were used in multiple linear regression models to determine the rate of decline in marathon times. Winners of each age group were assessed in 5-year increments from 16 through 74 years old (n = 47 per age group). The fastest times were between 25–34 years old, with overall champion males at 28.3 years old, and overall champion females at 30.8 years old (p = 0.004). At 35 years of age up to 74 years of age, female age group winners had a faster yearly decline in marathon finishing times compared to male age group winners, irrespective of marathon location [women = (min:sec) 2:33 per year, n = 336; men = 2:06 per year, n = 373, p < 0.01]. The median times between each age group only slowed beginning at 50 years old, thereafter the decline was similar between both men and women (women = 2:36, n = 140; men = 2:57, n = 150, p = 0.11). The median times were fastest at Boston and similar between Chicago and NYC. In conclusion, the rate of decline at 35 years old up to 74 years old is roughly linear (adjusted r2 = 0.88, p < 0.001) with female age group winners demonstrating 27 s per year greater decline per year compared to male age group winners. PMID:28187185

An analysis of social consequences of rapid fertility decline in China.

PubMed

Liu, Z; Liu, L

1988-12-01

Rapid fertility decline in China has brought about 2 direct effects: 1) the natural increase of the population has slowed down, and 2) the age structure has changed from the young to the adult type. These 2 effects have caused a series of economic and social consequences. Rapid fertility decline increases the gross national product per capita and accelerates the improvement of people's lives. Rapid fertility decline slows population growth and speeds up the accumulation of capital and the development of the economy. Since 1981, accumulation growth has exceeded consumption growth. Fertility decline alleviates the enrollment pressure on primary and secondary schools, raises the efficiency of education funds, and promotes the popularization of education. The family planning program strengthens the maternal and child health care and the medical care systems. As the result of economic development, the people's nutritional levels are improving. The physical quality of teenagers has improved steadily. The change in the age structure will alleviate the tension of rapid population growth and benefit population control in the next century. Fertility decline forces the traditional attitude toward childbearing from "more children, more happiness" to improved quality of children. The rapid fertility decline has caused a great deal of concern both inside and outside China about the aging of the population. The labor force, however, will continue to grow for the next 60 years. At present, China's population problems are still those of population growth.

Kidney function and cognitive decline in an oldest-old Chinese population.

PubMed

Bai, Kunhao; Pan, Yujing; Lu, Fanghong; Zhao, Yingxin; Wang, Jinwei; Zhang, Luxia

2017-01-01

Early-stage chronic kidney disease has been suggested to be correlated with cognitive decline, but the association has rarely been explored in the oldest old. This prospective study included 284 Chinese participants aged 80 years or older with serum creatinine levels <150 µmol/L. The median follow-up time was 3.3 years, and 247 (87.0%) participants provided valid data at their last visit. Kidney function was evaluated by measuring the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at baseline, and cognitive function was evaluated using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) at both baseline and annual visits. A reliable decrease in the MMSE score over the follow-up period was observed based on a Reliable Change Index of 1.645 (equivalent to a 90% confidence interval [CI]), which was used to define cognitive decline. Poisson regression models were built to analyze the association between baseline kidney function and cognitive decline. A total of 18 (7.3%) cases of incident cognitive decline were observed during the follow-up period. After adjusting for potential confounders, the relative risk of developing cognitive decline was 4.03 (95% CI 1.09-13.81) among participants with an eGFR of 30-59 mL/min/1.73 m 2 compared to participants with an eGFR of ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . Early-stage chronic kidney disease was correlated with cognitive decline in an oldest-old Chinese population.

School Closure: An Answer to Declining Enrollment?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lam, Y. L. Jack

1982-01-01

Examining reasons for school closure such as economics and equal educational opportunity, Lam concludes that school closings only serve to highlight inefficient school board policy, ineffective funding, and declining educational quality. (SK)

Longitudinal decline in structural networks predicts dementia in cerebral small vessel disease

PubMed Central

Lawrence, Andrew J.; Zeestraten, Eva A.; Benjamin, Philip; Lambert, Christian P.; Morris, Robin G.; Barrick, Thomas R.

2018-01-01

Objective To determine whether longitudinal change in white matter structural network integrity predicts dementia and future cognitive decline in cerebral small vessel disease (SVD). To investigate whether network disruption has a causal role in cognitive decline and mediates the association between conventional MRI markers of SVD with both cognitive decline and dementia. Methods In the prospective longitudinal SCANS (St George's Cognition and Neuroimaging in Stroke) Study, 97 dementia-free individuals with symptomatic lacunar stroke were followed with annual MRI for 3 years and annual cognitive assessment for 5 years. Conversion to dementia was recorded. Structural networks were constructed from diffusion tractography using a longitudinal registration pipeline, and network global efficiency was calculated. Linear mixed-effects regression was used to assess change over time. Results Seventeen individuals (17.5%) converted to dementia, and significant decline in global cognition occurred (p = 0.0016). Structural network measures declined over the 3-year MRI follow-up, but the degree of change varied markedly between individuals. The degree of reductions in network global efficiency was associated with conversion to dementia (B = −2.35, odds ratio = 0.095, p = 0.00056). Change in network global efficiency mediated much of the association of conventional MRI markers of SVD with cognitive decline and progression to dementia. Conclusions Network disruption has a central role in the pathogenesis of cognitive decline and dementia in SVD. It may be a useful disease marker to identify that subgroup of patients with SVD who progress to dementia. PMID:29695593

Arterial stiffness and decline of renal function in a primary care population.

PubMed

van Varik, Bernard J; Vossen, Liv M; Rennenberg, Roger J; Stoffers, Henri E; Kessels, Alfons G; de Leeuw, Peter W; Kroon, Abraham A

2017-01-01

Arterial stiffness is an important pathophysiological factor linking cardiovascular disease and kidney disease. Controversy exists as to whether arterial stiffness causes renal function decline, or kidney dysfunction leads to stiffening or whether the association is mutual. We aimed to investigate the longitudinal association between arterial stiffness and annual rate of renal function decline. We prospectively investigated in a primary care population whether carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) was associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and annual decline in eGFR in participants aged ⩾40 years without overt kidney disease. Baseline data on PWV and eGFR were available for 587 participants; follow-up measurements with a mean duration of 5.6 years were available for 222 patients. PWV, female gender and mean arterial pressure were independently associated with eGFR at baseline, although age confounded this association. More importantly, baseline PWV, age and eGFR were independent predictors of renal function decline. Stratification for age showed that the effect of PWV on rate of eGFR decline was amplified with advancing age. On the other hand, baseline eGFR did not determine annual change in PWV, suggesting a unidirectional association between arterial stiffness and eGFR. Arterial stiffness amplifies age-related renal function decline, suggesting that arterial stiffness plays a causal role in the development of renal damage, at least at later stages of age-related renal function decline, possibly through impaired renal autoregulation and increased arterial blood pressure pulsatility.

[Functional decline and presence of symptoms in palliative care: Cause or consequence?

PubMed

Zamora-Mur, Alfredo; Nabal-Vicuña, María; Zamora-Catevilla, Aranzazu; García-Foncillas, Rafael; Calderero-Aragón, Verónica; Aubí-Catevilla, Óscar; Lostalé-Latorre, Fernando

Several publications have related functional decline to the appearance of symptoms, especially psychiatric or psychological ones, such as anxiety and depression. Moreover, an initial depressive disorder or prior to functional decline usually worsens it. It was decided to investigate the relationship between the presence of functional decline, measured by a decrease in the Barthel index (BI), and the presence of symptoms. A prospective analytical study conducted on patients referred to a Home Care Support Team (HCST). The study included 638 cases, of which 53.9% (N=344) were male, 56% (N=357) with cancer and 44% (N=281) geriatric. The mean age was 79.64 years+- 10.8. Significant differences (P<.001) were found in functional decline measured by mean decline in the BI between cancer (34.4) and non-cancer patients (12.12). Significant differences (P<.001) were also found in all recorded symptoms (pain, dyspnoea, anorexia, nausea, anxiety, depression, and insomnia), more frequently in cancer patients, except psychomotor agitation. A higher presence of symptoms was detected in patients with greater functional decline, with decreases in BI above 20 points. There were no differences in previous treatments, except in certain analgesics. Differences were found in the different treatments prescribed by HCST. The presence of functional decline and its level may be related to the appearance of symptoms, especially in cancer patients. Copyright © 2016 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Conflict Management in Declining School Districts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boyd, William Lowe; Wheaton, Dennis R.

1983-01-01

Professional literature about managing conflicts associated with declining enrollments indicates the existing tension in this area. A research study shows that, while upper-middle class districts may succeed using a rational approach to decision making, lower class districts, for various reasons, may not. Special problems of urban districts are…

POPULATION DECLINES OF THE PUERTO RICAN VIREO IN GUANICA FOREST.

Treesearch

JOHN FAABORG; KATE M. DUGGER; WAYNE J. ARENDT; BETHANY L. WOODWORTH; MICHAEL E. BALTZ

1997-01-01

Abundance of the Puerto Rican Vireo (Vireo Zutimeri) in Guanica Forest, Puerto Rico, has declined gradually over the period 1973-1996 as determined by constant effort mist netting. Concurrent studies of breeding vireos show low nesting success, primarily due to parasitism by Shiny Cowbirds (Molothrus bonariensis). This decline may reflect the rather recent entry of the...

Targeting Functional Decline in Alzheimer Disease: A Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Callahan, Christopher M; Boustani, Malaz A; Schmid, Arlene A; LaMantia, Michael A; Austrom, Mary G; Miller, Douglas K; Gao, Sujuan; Ferguson, Denisha Y; Lane, Kathleen A; Hendrie, Hugh C

2017-02-07

Alzheimer disease results in progressive functional decline, leading to loss of independence. To determine whether collaborative care plus 2 years of home-based occupational therapy delays functional decline. Randomized, controlled clinical trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01314950). Urban public health system. 180 community-dwelling participants with Alzheimer disease and their informal caregivers. All participants received collaborative care for dementia. Patients in the intervention group also received in-home occupational therapy delivered in 24 sessions over 2 years. The primary outcome measure was the Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study Group Activities of Daily Living Scale (ADCS ADL); performance-based measures included the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) and Short Portable Sarcopenia Measure (SPSM). At baseline, clinical characteristics did not differ significantly between groups; the mean Mini-Mental State Examination score for both groups was 19 (SD, 7). The intervention group received a median of 18 home visits from the study occupational therapists. In both groups, ADCS ADL scores declined over 24 months. At the primary end point of 24 months, ADCS ADL scores did not differ between groups (mean difference, 2.34 [95% CI, -5.27 to 9.96]). We also could not definitively demonstrate between-group differences in mean SPPB or SPSM values. The results of this trial are indeterminate and do not rule out potential clinically important effects of the intervention. The authors could not definitively demonstrate whether the addition of 2 years of in-home occupational therapy to a collaborative care management model slowed the rate of functional decline among persons with Alzheimer disease. This trial underscores the burden undertaken by caregivers as they provide care for family members with Alzheimer disease and the difficulty in slowing functional decline. National Institute on Aging.

Decline in Literacy and Incident AD Dementia Among Community-Dwelling Older Persons.

PubMed

Yu, Lei; Wilson, Robert S; Han, S Duke; Leurgans, Sue; Bennett, David A; Boyle, Patricia A

2017-06-01

To quantify longitudinal change in financial and health literacy and examine the associations of declining literacy with incident Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Data came from 799 participants of an ongoing cohort study. Literacy was measured using a battery of 32 questions. Clinical diagnoses were made annually following uniform structured procedures. The associations of declining literacy with incident AD dementia and MCI were tested using a joint model for longitudinal and time-to-event data. We observed an overall decline in total literacy score over up to 6 years of follow-up ( p < .001). Faster decline in literacy was associated with higher risks for incident AD dementia (hazard ratio = 4.526, 95% confidence interval = [2.993, 6.843], p < .001) and incident MCI (hazard ratio = 2.971, 95% confidence interval = [1.509, 5.849], p = .002). Declining literacy among community-dwelling older persons predicts adverse cognitive outcomes and serves as an early indicator of impending dementia.

Widowhood Status as a Risk Factor for Cognitive Decline among Older Adults.

PubMed

Shin, Su Hyun; Kim, Giyeon; Park, Soohyun

2018-07-01

This study investigated whether widowhood status has an effect on cognitive decline among older adults in the United States. Longitudinal analysis of existing secondary data. The 1996-2012 waves of the Health and Retirement Study. A total of 6,766 individuals (28,420 observations) aged 50 years and older who responded to all questions. Widow/widower status, cognitive functioning score, and various covariates. Growth-curve models show that after controlling for covariates, widowhood status was related to cognitive decline (95% CI: -0.8090, -0.4674). We also found a linear relationship between time since spousal loss and cognitive decline. Conditional upon spousal bereavement status, higher education and having at least one living sibling were found to be protective factors against cognitive decline. Widowhood status accelerated cognitive decline over time among widowed older adults. Findings suggest that extra support is needed to monitor cognitive functioning for those experiencing widowhood. Copyright © 2018 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, N.C.; Kauffman, M.J.; Mills, L.S.

2008-01-01

Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

Declining trend of peritoneal dialysis: a single-center experience.

PubMed

Agraharkar, Mahendra; Henry, Sharon; Martinez, Dora; Bonds, Becky

2002-01-01

Peritoneal dialysis (PD), despite being advantageous to patient, physician, and society, has failed to show the growth it deserves. On the contrary, PD utilization has declined. Over the past several years, we have noticed a decline in the number of our home dialysis patients. When compared to the national trend, we find our trend to be not significantly different from other centers across the country. A similar trend has also been noticed in Canada. Although several reasons may exist for the decline, we intend to concentrate on local factors. In the first quarter of 1996, we had a total of 46 adult and pediatric end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients on PD. That number decreased to 23 at the end of fourth quarter of the year 2001. The losses in our program far exceeded the gains. We lost our patients mainly to in-center hemodialysis (ICHD) and to transplantation. Peritonitis and membrane failure remained the major grounds for the loss to ICHD. In our center, geographic location and a lack of structured pre-ESRD education probably played a major role in the decline. Many of our patients are from distant counties that have a contract with University of Texas Medical Branch for providing health care to their indigent population. However, once those patients develop complications, the counties rely on the expertise of local physicians and nephrologists.