A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost

2012-02-01

We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The 'evolving metacommunity' framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats.

Experimental salt marsh islands: A model system for novel metacommunity experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balke, Thorsten; Lõhmus, Kertu; Hillebrand, Helmut; Zielinski, Oliver; Haynert, Kristin; Meier, Daniela; Hodapp, Dorothee; Minden, Vanessa; Kleyer, Michael

2017-11-01

Shallow tidal coasts are characterised by shifting tidal flats and emerging or eroding islands above the high tide line. Salt marsh vegetation colonising new habitats distant from existing marshes are an ideal model to investigate metacommunity theory. We installed a set of 12 experimental salt marsh islands made from metal cages on a tidal flat in the German Wadden Sea to study the assembly of salt marsh communities in a metacommunity context. Experimental plots at the same elevation were established within the adjacent salt marsh on the island of Spiekeroog. For both, experimental islands and salt marsh enclosed plots, the same three elevational levels were realised while creating bare patches open for colonisation and vegetated patches with a defined transplanted community. One year into the experiment, the bare islands were colonised by plant species with high fecundity although with a lower frequency compared to the salt marsh enclosed bare plots. Initial plant community variations due to species sorting along the inundation gradient were evident in the transplanted vegetation. Competitive exclusion was not observed and is only expected to unfold in the coming years. Our study highlights that spatially and temporally explicit metacommunity dynamics should be considered in salt marsh plant community assembly and disassembly.

Predator Dispersal Determines the Effect of Connectivity on Prey Diversity

PubMed Central

Limberger, Romana; Wickham, Stephen A.

2011-01-01

Linking local communities to a metacommunity can positively affect diversity by enabling immigration of dispersal-limited species and maintenance of sink populations. However, connectivity can also negatively affect diversity by allowing the spread of strong competitors or predators. In a microcosm experiment with five ciliate species as prey and a copepod as an efficient generalist predator, we analysed the effect of connectivity on prey species richness in metacommunities that were either unconnected, connected for the prey, or connected for both prey and predator. Presence and absence of predator dispersal was cross-classified with low and high connectivity. The effect of connectivity on local and regional richness strongly depended on whether corridors were open for the predator. Local richness was initially positively affected by connectivity through rescue of species from stochastic extinctions. With predator dispersal, however, this positive effect soon turned negative as the predator spread over the metacommunity. Regional richness was unaffected by connectivity when local communities were connected only for the prey, while predator dispersal resulted in a pronounced decrease of regional richness. The level of connectivity influenced the speed of richness decline, with regional species extinctions being delayed for one week in weakly connected metacommunities. While connectivity enabled rescue of prey species from stochastic extinctions, deterministic extinctions due to predation were not overcome through reimmigration from predator-free refuges. Prey reimmigrating into these sink habitats appeared to be directly converted into increased predator abundance. Connectivity thus had a positive effect on the predator, even when the predator was not dispersing itself. Our study illustrates that dispersal of a species with strong negative effects on other community members shapes the dispersal-diversity relationship. When connections enable the spread of a generalist predator, positive effects of connectivity on prey species richness are outweighed by regional extinctions through predation. PMID:22194992

A comparative analysis reveals weak relationships between ecological factors and beta diversity of stream insect metacommunities at two spatial levels.

PubMed

Heino, Jani; Melo, Adriano S; Bini, Luis Mauricio; Altermatt, Florian; Al-Shami, Salman A; Angeler, David G; Bonada, Núria; Brand, Cecilia; Callisto, Marcos; Cottenie, Karl; Dangles, Olivier; Dudgeon, David; Encalada, Andrea; Göthe, Emma; Grönroos, Mira; Hamada, Neusa; Jacobsen, Dean; Landeiro, Victor L; Ligeiro, Raphael; Martins, Renato T; Miserendino, María Laura; Md Rawi, Che Salmah; Rodrigues, Marciel E; Roque, Fabio de Oliveira; Sandin, Leonard; Schmera, Denes; Sgarbi, Luciano F; Simaika, John P; Siqueira, Tadeu; Thompson, Ross M; Townsend, Colin R

2015-03-01

The hypotheses that beta diversity should increase with decreasing latitude and increase with spatial extent of a region have rarely been tested based on a comparative analysis of multiple datasets, and no such study has focused on stream insects. We first assessed how well variability in beta diversity of stream insect metacommunities is predicted by insect group, latitude, spatial extent, altitudinal range, and dataset properties across multiple drainage basins throughout the world. Second, we assessed the relative roles of environmental and spatial factors in driving variation in assemblage composition within each drainage basin. Our analyses were based on a dataset of 95 stream insect metacommunities from 31 drainage basins distributed around the world. We used dissimilarity-based indices to quantify beta diversity for each metacommunity and, subsequently, regressed beta diversity on insect group, latitude, spatial extent, altitudinal range, and dataset properties (e.g., number of sites and percentage of presences). Within each metacommunity, we used a combination of spatial eigenfunction analyses and partial redundancy analysis to partition variation in assemblage structure into environmental, shared, spatial, and unexplained fractions. We found that dataset properties were more important predictors of beta diversity than ecological and geographical factors across multiple drainage basins. In the within-basin analyses, environmental and spatial variables were generally poor predictors of variation in assemblage composition. Our results revealed deviation from general biodiversity patterns because beta diversity did not show the expected decreasing trend with latitude. Our results also call for reconsideration of just how predictable stream assemblages are along ecological gradients, with implications for environmental assessment and conservation decisions. Our findings may also be applicable to other dynamic systems where predictability is low.

Metacommunity versus Biogeography: A Case Study of Two Groups of Neotropical Vegetation-Dwelling Arthropods

PubMed Central

Gonçalves-Souza, Thiago; Romero, Gustavo Q.; Cottenie, Karl

2014-01-01

Biogeography and metacommunity ecology provide two different perspectives on species diversity. Both are spatial in nature but their spatial scales do not necessarily match. With recent boom of metacommunity studies, we see an increasing need for clear discrimination of spatial scales relevant for both perspectives. This discrimination is a necessary prerequisite for improved understanding of ecological phenomena across scales. Here we provide a case study to illustrate some spatial scale-dependent concepts in recent metacommunity studies and identify potential pitfalls. We presented here the diversity patterns of Neotropical lepidopterans and spiders viewed both from metacommunity and biogeographical perspectives. Specifically, we investigated how the relative importance of niche- and dispersal-based processes for community assembly change at two spatial scales: metacommunity scale, i.e. within a locality, and biogeographical scale, i.e. among localities widely scattered along a macroclimatic gradient. As expected, niche-based processes dominated the community assembly at metacommunity scale, while dispersal-based processes played a major role at biogeographical scale for both taxonomical groups. However, we also observed small but significant spatial effects at metacommunity scale and environmental effects at biogeographical scale. We also observed differences in diversity patterns between the two taxonomical groups corresponding to differences in their dispersal modes. Our results thus support the idea of continuity of processes interactively shaping diversity patterns across scales and emphasize the necessity of integration of metacommunity and biogeographical perspectives. PMID:25549332

General relationships between consumer dispersal, resource dispersal and metacommunity diversity.

PubMed

Haegeman, Bart; Loreau, Michel

2014-02-01

One of the central questions of metacommunity theory is how dispersal of organisms affects species diversity. Here, we show that the diversity-dispersal relationship should not be studied in isolation of other abiotic and biotic flows in the metacommunity. We study a mechanistic metacommunity model in which consumer species compete for an abiotic or biotic resource. We consider both consumer species specialised to a habitat patch, and generalist species capable of using the resource throughout the metacommunity. We present analytical results for different limiting values of consumer dispersal and resource dispersal, and complement these results with simulations for intermediate dispersal values. Our analysis reveals generic patterns for the combined effects of consumer and resource dispersal on the metacommunity diversity of consumer species, and shows that hump-shaped relationships between local diversity and dispersal are not universal. Diversity-dispersal relationships can also be monotonically increasing or multimodal. Our work is a new step towards a general theory of metacommunity diversity integrating dispersal at multiple trophic levels. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Phylogenies support out-of-equilibrium models of biodiversity.

PubMed

Manceau, Marc; Lambert, Amaury; Morlon, Hélène

2015-04-01

There is a long tradition in ecology of studying models of biodiversity at equilibrium. These models, including the influential Neutral Theory of Biodiversity, have been successful at predicting major macroecological patterns, such as species abundance distributions. But they have failed to predict macroevolutionary patterns, such as those captured in phylogenetic trees. Here, we develop a model of biodiversity in which all individuals have identical demographic rates, metacommunity size is allowed to vary stochastically according to population dynamics, and speciation arises naturally from the accumulation of point mutations. We show that this model generates phylogenies matching those observed in nature if the metacommunity is out of equilibrium. We develop a likelihood inference framework that allows fitting our model to empirical phylogenies, and apply this framework to various mammalian families. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that biodiversity dynamics are out of equilibrium. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Habitat filtering of bacterioplankton communities above polymetallic nodule fields and sediments in the Clarion-Clipperton zone of the Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Lindh, Markus V; Maillot, Brianne M; Smith, Craig R; Church, Matthew J

2018-04-01

Deep-sea mining of commercially valuable polymetallic nodule fields will generate a seabed sediment plume into the water column. Yet, the response of bacterioplankton communities, critical in regulating energy and matter fluxes in marine ecosystems, to such disturbances is unknown. Metacommunity theory, traditionally used in general ecology for macroorganisms, offers mechanistic understanding on the relative role of spatial differences compared with local environmental conditions (habitat filtering) for community assembly. We examined bacterioplankton metacommunities using 16S rRNA amplicons from the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the eastern Pacific Ocean and in global ocean transect samples to determine sensitivity of these assemblages to environmental perturbations. Habitat filtering was the main assembly mechanism of bacterioplankton community composition in the epi- and mesopelagic waters of the CCZ and the Tara Oceans transect. Bathy- and abyssopelagic bacterioplankton assemblages were mainly assembled by undetermined metacommunity types or neutral and dispersal-driven patch-dynamics for the CCZ and the Malaspina transect. Environmental disturbances may alter the structure of upper-ocean microbial assemblages, with potentially even more substantial, yet unknown, impact on deep-sea communities. Predicting such responses in bacterioplankton assemblage dynamics can improve our understanding of microbially-mediated regulation of ecosystem services in the abyssal seabed likely to be exploited by future deep-sea mining operations. © 2018 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assembly processes of gastropod community change with horizontal and vertical zonation in ancient Lake Ohrid: a metacommunity speciation perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauffe, Torsten; Albrecht, Christian; Wilke, Thomas

2016-05-01

The Balkan Lake Ohrid is the oldest and most diverse freshwater lacustrine system in Europe. However, it remains unclear whether species community composition, as well as the diversification of its endemic taxa, is mainly driven by dispersal limitation, environmental filtering, or species interaction. This calls for a holistic perspective involving both evolutionary processes and ecological dynamics, as provided by the unifying framework of the "metacommunity speciation model".The current study used the species-rich model taxon Gastropoda to assess how extant communities in Lake Ohrid are structured by performing process-based metacommunity analyses. Specifically, the study aimed (1) to identifying the relative importance of the three community assembly processes and (2) to test whether the importance of these individual processes changes gradually with lake depth or discontinuously with eco-zone shifts.Based on automated eco-zone detection and process-specific simulation steps, we demonstrated that dispersal limitation had the strongest influence on gastropod community composition. However, it was not the exclusive assembly process, but acted together with the other two processes - environmental filtering and species interaction. The relative importance of the community assembly processes varied both with lake depth and eco-zones, though the processes were better predicted by the latter.This suggests that environmental characteristics have a pronounced effect on shaping gastropod communities via assembly processes. Moreover, the study corroborated the high importance of dispersal limitation for both maintaining species richness in Lake Ohrid (through its impact on community composition) and generating endemic biodiversity (via its influence on diversification processes). However, according to the metacommunity speciation model, the inferred importance of environmental filtering and biotic interaction also suggests a small but significant influence of ecological speciation. These findings contribute to the main goal of the Scientific Collaboration on Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid (SCOPSCO) deep drilling initiative - inferring the drivers of biotic evolution - and might provide an integrative perspective on biological and limnological dynamics in ancient Lake Ohrid.

Gastropod diversification and community structuring processes in ancient Lake Ohrid: a metacommunity speciation perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauffe, T.; Albrecht, C.; Wilke, T.

2015-09-01

The Balkan Lake Ohrid is the oldest and most speciose freshwater lacustrine system in Europe. However, it remains unclear whether the diversification of its endemic taxa is mainly driven by neutral processes, environmental factors, or species interactions. This calls for a holistic perspective involving both evolutionary processes and ecological dynamics. Such a unifying framework - the metacommunity speciation model - considers how community assembly affects diversification and vice versa by assessing the relative contribution of the three main community assembly processes, dispersal limitation, environmental filtering, and species interaction. The current study therefore used the species-rich model taxon Gastropoda to assess how extant communities in Lake Ohrid are structured by performing process based metacommunity analyses. Specifically, the study aimed at (i) identifying the relative importance of the three community assembly processes and (ii) to test whether the importance of these individual processes changes gradually with lake depth or whether they are distinctively related to eco-zones. Based on specific simulation steps for each of the three processes, it could be demonstrated that dispersal limitation had the strongest influence on gastropod community structures in Lake Ohrid. However, it was not the exclusive assembly process but acted together with the other two processes - environmental filtering, and species interaction. In fact, the relative importance of the three community assembly processes varied both with lake depth and eco-zones, though the processes were better predicted by the latter. The study thus corroborated the high importance of dispersal limitation for both maintaining species richness in Lake Ohrid (through its impact on community structure) and generating endemic biodiversity (via its influence on diversification processes). However, according to the metacommunity speciation model, the inferred importance of environmental filtering and biotic interaction also suggests a small but significant influence of ecological speciation. These findings contribute to the main goal of the SCOPSCO initiative - inferring the drivers of biotic evolution - and might provide an integrative perspective on biological and limnological dynamics in ancient Lake Ohrid.

An extended patch-dynamic framework for food chains in fragmented landscapes

PubMed Central

Liao, Jinbao; Chen, Jiehong; Ying, Zhixia; Hiebeler, David E.; Nijs, Ivan

2016-01-01

Habitat destruction, a key determinant of species loss, can be characterized by two components, patch loss and patch fragmentation, where the former refers to the reduction in patch availability, and the latter to the division of the remaining patches. Classical metacommunity models have recently explored how food web dynamics respond to patch loss, but the effects of patch fragmentation have largely been overlooked. Here we develop an extended patch-dynamic model that tracks the patch occupancy of the various trophic links subject to colonization-extinction-predation dynamics by incorporating species dispersal with patch connectivity. We found that, in a simple food chain, species at higher trophic level become extinct sooner with increasing patch loss and fragmentation due to the constraint in resource availability, confirming the trophic rank hypothesis. Yet, effects of fragmentation on species occupancy are largely determined by patch loss, with maximal fragmentation effects occurring at intermediate patch loss. Compared to the spatially explicit simulations that we also performed, the current model with pair approximation generates similar community patterns especially in spatially clustered landscapes. Overall, our extended framework can be applied to model more complex food webs in fragmented landscapes, broadening the scope of existing metacommunity theory. PMID:27608823

The underlying processes of a soil mite metacommunity on a small scale.

PubMed

Dong, Chengxu; Gao, Meixiang; Guo, Chuanwei; Lin, Lin; Wu, Donghui; Zhang, Limin

2017-01-01

Metacommunity theory provides an understanding of how ecological processes regulate local community assemblies. However, few field studies have evaluated the underlying mechanisms of a metacommunity on a small scale through revealing the relative roles of spatial and environmental filtering in structuring local community composition. Based on a spatially explicit sampling design in 2012 and 2013, this study aims to evaluate the underlying processes of a soil mite metacommunity on a small spatial scale (50 m) in a temperate deciduous forest located at the Maoershan Ecosystem Research Station, Northeast China. Moran's eigenvector maps (MEMs) were used to model independent spatial variables. The relative importance of spatial (including trend variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, and broad- and fine-scale spatial variables) and environmental factors in driving the soil mite metacommunity was determined by variation partitioning. Mantel and partial Mantel tests and a redundancy analysis (RDA) were also used to identify the relative contributions of spatial and environmental variables. The results of variation partitioning suggested that the relatively large and significant variance was a result of spatial variables (including broad- and fine-scale spatial variables and trend), indicating the importance of dispersal limitation and autocorrelation processes. The significant contribution of environmental variables was detected in 2012 based on a partial Mantel test, and soil moisture and soil organic matter were especially important for the soil mite metacommunity composition in both years. The study suggested that the soil mite metacommunity was primarily regulated by dispersal limitation due to broad-scale and neutral biotic processes at a fine-scale and that environmental filtering might be of subordinate importance. In conclusion, a combination of metacommunity perspectives between neutral and species sorting theories was suggested to be important in the observed structure of the soil mite metacommunity at the studied small scale.

The underlying processes of a soil mite metacommunity on a small scale

PubMed Central

Guo, Chuanwei; Lin, Lin; Wu, Donghui; Zhang, Limin

2017-01-01

Metacommunity theory provides an understanding of how ecological processes regulate local community assemblies. However, few field studies have evaluated the underlying mechanisms of a metacommunity on a small scale through revealing the relative roles of spatial and environmental filtering in structuring local community composition. Based on a spatially explicit sampling design in 2012 and 2013, this study aims to evaluate the underlying processes of a soil mite metacommunity on a small spatial scale (50 m) in a temperate deciduous forest located at the Maoershan Ecosystem Research Station, Northeast China. Moran’s eigenvector maps (MEMs) were used to model independent spatial variables. The relative importance of spatial (including trend variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, and broad- and fine-scale spatial variables) and environmental factors in driving the soil mite metacommunity was determined by variation partitioning. Mantel and partial Mantel tests and a redundancy analysis (RDA) were also used to identify the relative contributions of spatial and environmental variables. The results of variation partitioning suggested that the relatively large and significant variance was a result of spatial variables (including broad- and fine-scale spatial variables and trend), indicating the importance of dispersal limitation and autocorrelation processes. The significant contribution of environmental variables was detected in 2012 based on a partial Mantel test, and soil moisture and soil organic matter were especially important for the soil mite metacommunity composition in both years. The study suggested that the soil mite metacommunity was primarily regulated by dispersal limitation due to broad-scale and neutral biotic processes at a fine-scale and that environmental filtering might be of subordinate importance. In conclusion, a combination of metacommunity perspectives between neutral and species sorting theories was suggested to be important in the observed structure of the soil mite metacommunity at the studied small scale. PMID:28481906

Metacommunicative Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Kleeck, Anne; Hopper, Robert

The purpose of this analytical essay is to lay out some conceptual boundaries and distinctions about how children develop and use metacommunication (messages whose primary function is to make reference to or transform themselves or other messages). Two types of metacommunication are discussed: metalinguistic messages, in which there is a temporary…

Mammal diversity and metacommunity dynamics in urban green spaces: implications for urban wildlife conservation.

PubMed

Gallo, Travis; Fidino, Mason; Lehrer, Elizabeth W; Magle, Seth B

2017-12-01

As urban growth expands and natural environments fragment, it is essential to understand the ecological roles fulfilled by urban green spaces. To evaluate how urban green spaces function as wildlife habitat, we estimated mammal diversity and metacommunity dynamics in city parks, cemeteries, golf courses, and natural areas throughout the greater Chicago, Illinois, USA region. We found similar α-diversity (with the exception of city parks), but remarkably dissimilar communities in different urban green spaces. Additionally, the type of urban green space greatly influenced species colonization and persistence rates. For example, coyotes (Canis latrans) had the highest, but white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) the lowest probability of persistence in golf courses compared to other green space types. Further, most species had a difficult time colonizing city parks even when sites were seemingly available. Our results indicate that urban green spaces contribute different, but collectively important, habitats for maintaining and conserving biodiversity in cities. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Flow directionality, mountain barriers and functional traits determine diatom metacommunity structuring of high mountain streams.

PubMed

Dong, Xiaoyu; Li, Bin; He, Fengzhi; Gu, Yuan; Sun, Meiqin; Zhang, Haomiao; Tan, Lu; Xiao, Wen; Liu, Shuoran; Cai, Qinghua

2016-04-19

Stream metacommunities are structured by a combination of local (environmental filtering) and regional (dispersal) processes. The unique characters of high mountain streams could potentially determine metacommunity structuring, which is currently poorly understood. Aiming at understanding how these characters influenced metacommunity structuring, we explored the relative importance of local environmental conditions and various dispersal processes, including through geographical (overland), topographical (across mountain barriers) and network (along flow direction) pathways in shaping benthic diatom communities. From a trait perspective, diatoms were categorized into high-profile, low-profile and motile guild to examine the roles of functional traits. Our results indicated that both environmental filtering and dispersal processes influenced metacommunity structuring, with dispersal contributing more than environmental processes. Among the three pathways, stream corridors were primary pathway. Deconstructive analysis suggested different responses to environmental and spatial factors for each of three ecological guilds. However, regardless of traits, dispersal among streams was limited by mountain barriers, while dispersal along stream was promoted by rushing flow in high mountain stream. Our results highlighted that directional processes had prevailing effects on metacommunity structuring in high mountain streams. Flow directionality, mountain barriers and ecological guilds contributed to a better understanding of the roles that mountains played in structuring metacommunity.

Metacommunity ecology meets biogeography: effects of geographical region, spatial dynamics and environmental filtering on community structure in aquatic organisms.

PubMed

Heino, Jani; Soininen, Janne; Alahuhta, Janne; Lappalainen, Jyrki; Virtanen, Risto

2017-01-01

Metacommunity patterns and underlying processes in aquatic organisms have typically been studied within a drainage basin. We examined variation in the composition of six freshwater organismal groups across various drainage basins in Finland. We first modelled spatial structures within each drainage basin using Moran eigenvector maps. Second, we partitioned variation in community structure among three groups of predictors using constrained ordination: (1) local environmental variables, (2) spatial variables, and (3) dummy variable drainage basin identity. Third, we examined turnover and nestedness components of multiple-site beta diversity, and tested the best fit patterns of our datasets using the "elements of metacommunity structure" analysis. Our results showed that basin identity and local environmental variables were significant predictors of community structure, whereas within-basin spatial effects were typically negligible. In half of the organismal groups (diatoms, bryophytes, zooplankton), basin identity was a slightly better predictor of community structure than local environmental variables, whereas the opposite was true for the remaining three organismal groups (insects, macrophytes, fish). Both pure basin and local environmental fractions were, however, significant after accounting for the effects of the other predictor variable sets. All organismal groups exhibited high levels of beta diversity, which was mostly attributable to the turnover component. Our results showed consistent Clementsian-type metacommunity structures, suggesting that subgroups of species responded similarly to environmental factors or drainage basin limits. We conclude that aquatic communities across large scales are mostly determined by environmental and basin effects, which leads to high beta diversity and prevalence of Clementsian community types.

Spatial scale of similarity as an indicator of metacommunity stability in exploited marine systems.

PubMed

Shackell, Nancy L; Fisher, Jonathan A D; Frank, Kenneth T; Lawton, Peter

2012-01-01

The spatial scale of similarity among fish communities is characteristically large in temperate marine systems: connectivity is enhanced by high rates of dispersal during the larval/juvenile stages and the increased mobility of large-bodied fish. A larger spatial scale of similarity (low beta diversity) is advantageous in heavily exploited systems because locally depleted populations are more likely to be "rescued" by neighboring areas. We explored whether the spatial scale of similarity changed from 1970 to 2006 due to overfishing of dominant, large-bodied groundfish across a 300 000-km2 region of the Northwest Atlantic. Annually, similarities among communities decayed slowly with increasing geographic distance in this open system, but through time the decorrelation distance declined by 33%, concomitant with widespread reductions in biomass, body size, and community evenness. The decline in connectivity stemmed from an erosion of community similarity among local subregions separated by distances as small as 100 km. Larger fish, of the same species, contribute proportionally more viable offspring, so observed body size reductions will have affected maternal output. The cumulative effect of nonlinear maternal influences on egg/larval quality may have compromised the spatial scale of effective larval dispersal, which may account for the delayed recovery of certain member species. Our study adds strong support for using the spatial scale of similarity as an indicator of metacommunity stability both to understand the spatial impacts of exploitation and to refine how spatial structure is used in management plans.

[Clinical experience in communication in autogenous psychotherapy and hypnosis].

PubMed

Eletti, P L; Peresson, L

1983-12-30

Questions relating to communication and metacommunication during two forms of directive psychotherapy (Schultz's autogenous training and hypnosis) are examined. The concept of rigidity and cognitive flexibility with regard to the physician-patient relationship is discussed: abstract-concrete dynamics, abstract generalisation of diagnosis, linguistic egocentricity, stereotypical adaptation to conventional language. Some attention is devoted to Heider's balance theory as the first approach to psychological understanding of the therapeutic relationship. The communicative and metacommunicative process described by the Palo Alto (California) school is discussed. Autogenous psychotherapy and hypnosis extend through the concepts of symmetrical relation and inferior complementarity. The criteria for reaching these objectives are stated, along with the pragmatic methods devised for decoding messages and gaining access to metacommunication. Three clinical cases treated through autogenous training and one with hypnosis are analysed with respect to communication and from the relational standpoint. The patient's messages are decoded, the ambiguity of the communication is detected, and the physician's possible answers are examined at both the technical and the emotive level. It is felt that the correct use of the communicational perspective greatly extends the possibilities of autogenous training and hypnosis. It is not a question of combining relational and autogenous management, but of using the Palo Alto discoveries in the more complete understanding of cases in which psychotherapy is employed.

Looking for hotspots of marine metacommunity connectivity: a methodological framework

PubMed Central

Melià, Paco; Schiavina, Marcello; Rossetto, Marisa; Gatto, Marino; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Casagrandi, Renato

2016-01-01

Seascape connectivity critically affects the spatiotemporal dynamics of marine metacommunities. Understanding how connectivity patterns emerge from physically and biologically-mediated interactions is therefore crucial to conserve marine ecosystem functions and biodiversity. Here, we develop a set of biophysical models to explore connectivity in assemblages of species belonging to a typical Mediterranean community (Posidonia oceanica meadows) and characterized by different dispersing traits. We propose a novel methodological framework to synthesize species-specific results into a set of community connectivity metrics and show that spatiotemporal variation in magnitude and direction of the connections, as well as interspecific differences in dispersing traits, are key factors structuring community connectivity. We eventually demonstrate how these metrics can be used to characterize the functional role of each marine area in determining patterns of community connectivity at the basin level and to support marine conservation planning. PMID:27029563

Looking for hotspots of marine metacommunity connectivity: a methodological framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melià, Paco; Schiavina, Marcello; Rossetto, Marisa; Gatto, Marino; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Casagrandi, Renato

2016-03-01

Seascape connectivity critically affects the spatiotemporal dynamics of marine metacommunities. Understanding how connectivity patterns emerge from physically and biologically-mediated interactions is therefore crucial to conserve marine ecosystem functions and biodiversity. Here, we develop a set of biophysical models to explore connectivity in assemblages of species belonging to a typical Mediterranean community (Posidonia oceanica meadows) and characterized by different dispersing traits. We propose a novel methodological framework to synthesize species-specific results into a set of community connectivity metrics and show that spatiotemporal variation in magnitude and direction of the connections, as well as interspecific differences in dispersing traits, are key factors structuring community connectivity. We eventually demonstrate how these metrics can be used to characterize the functional role of each marine area in determining patterns of community connectivity at the basin level and to support marine conservation planning.

Environmental species sorting dominates forest-bird community assembly across scales.

PubMed

Özkan, Korhan; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Jeppesen, Erik

2013-01-01

Environmental species sorting and dispersal are seen as key factors in community assembly, but their relative importance and scale dependence remain uncertain, as the extent to which communities are consistently assembled throughout their biomes. To address these issues, we analysed bird metacommunity structure in a 1200-km(2) forested landscape (Istranca Forests) in Turkish Thrace at the margin of the Western Palaearctic (WP) temperate-forest biome. First, we used spatial regressions and Mantel tests to assess the relative importance of environmental and spatial factors as drivers of local species richness and composition within the metacommunity. Second, we analysed species' abundance-occupancy relationship across the metacommunity and used null models to assess whether occupancy is determined by species' environmental niches. Third, we used generalized linear models to test for links between species' metacommunity-wide occupancy and their broader WP regional populations and assessed whether these links are consistent with environmental species sorting. There was strong environmental control on local species richness and composition patterns within the metacommunity, but non-environmental spatial factors had also an important joint role. Null model analyses on randomized communities showed that species' occupancy across the metacommunity was strongly determined by species' environmental niches, with occupancy being related to niche position marginality. Species' metacommunity-wide occupancy correlated with their local abundance as well as with their range size and total abundance for the whole WP, suggesting that the same assembly mechanisms act consistently across local to regional scales. A species specialization index that was estimated by bird species' habitat use across France, incorporating both niche position and breadth, was significantly related to species' occupancy and abundance at both metacommunity and WP regional scales. Hence, the same niche-related assembly mechanisms appear to act consistently across the WP region. Overall, our results suggest that the structure of the Istranca Forest' bird metacommunity was predominantly controlled by environmental species sorting in a manner consistent with the broader WP region. However, variability in local community structure was also linked to purely spatial factors, albeit more weakly. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Prey dispersal rate affects prey species composition and trait diversity in response to multiple predators in metacommunities.

PubMed

Howeth, Jennifer G; Leibold, Mathew A

2010-09-01

1. Recent studies indicate that large-scale spatial processes can alter local community structuring mechanisms to determine local and regional assemblages of predators and their prey. In metacommunities, this may occur when the functional diversity represented in the regional predator species pool interacts with the rate of prey dispersal among local communities to affect prey species diversity and trait composition at multiple scales. 2. Here, we test for effects of prey dispersal rate and spatially and temporally heterogeneous predation from functionally dissimilar predators on prey structure in pond mesocosm metacommunities. An experimental metacommunity consisted of three pond mesocosm communities supporting two differentially size-selective invertebrate predators and their zooplankton prey. In each metacommunity, two communities maintained constant predation and supported either Gyrinus sp. (Coleoptera) or Notonecta ungulata (Hemiptera) predators generating a spatial prey refuge while the third community supported alternating predation from Gyrinus sp. and N. ungulata generating a temporal prey refuge. Mesocosm metacommunities were connected at either low (0.7% day(-1)) or high (10% day(-1)) planktonic prey dispersal. The diversity, composition and body size of zooplankton prey were measured at local and regional (metacommunity) scales. 3. Metacommunities experiencing the low prey dispersal rate supported the greatest regional prey species diversity (H') and evenness (J'). Neither dispersal rate nor predation regime affected local prey diversity or evenness. The spatial prey refuge at low dispersal maintained the largest difference in species composition and body size diversity between communities under Gyrinus and Notonecta predation, suggesting that species sorting was operating at the low dispersal rate. There was no effect of dispersal rate on species diversity or body size distribution in the temporal prey refuge. 4. The frequency distribution, but not the range, of prey body sizes within communities depended upon prey dispersal rate and predator identity. Taken together, these results demonstrate that prey dispersal rate can moderate the strength of predation to influence prey species diversity and the local frequency distribution of prey traits in metacommunities supporting ecologically different predators.

Inferring species roles in metacommunity structure from species co-occurrence networks

PubMed Central

Borthagaray, Ana I.; Arim, Matías; Marquet, Pablo A.

2014-01-01

A long-standing question in community ecology is what determines the identity of species that coexist across local communities or metacommunity assembly. To shed light upon this question, we used a network approach to analyse the drivers of species co-occurrence patterns. In particular, we focus on the potential roles of body size and trophic status as determinants of metacommunity cohesion because of their link to resource use and dispersal ability. Small-sized individuals at low-trophic levels, and with limited dispersal potential, are expected to form highly linked subgroups, whereas large-size individuals at higher trophic positions, and with good dispersal potential, will foster the spatial coupling of subgroups and the cohesion of the whole metacommunity. By using modularity analysis, we identified six modules of species with similar responses to ecological conditions and high co-occurrence across local communities. Most species either co-occur with species from a single module or are connectors of the whole network. Among the latter are carnivorous species of intermediate body size, which by virtue of their high incidence provide connectivity to otherwise isolated communities playing the role of spatial couplers. Our study also demonstrates that the incorporation of network tools to the analysis of metacommunity ecology can help unveil the mechanisms underlying patterns and processes in metacommunity assembly. PMID:25143039

Dispersal and life history strategies in epiphyte metacommunities: alternative solutions to survival in patchy, dynamic landscapes.

PubMed

Löbel, Swantje; Rydin, Håkan

2009-09-01

Host trees for obligate epiphytes are dynamic patches that emerge, grow and fall, and metacommunity diversity critically depends on efficient dispersal. Even though species that disperse by large asexual diaspores are strongly dispersal limited, asexual dispersal is common. The stronger dispersal limitation of asexually reproducing species compared to species reproducing sexually via small spores may be compensated by higher growth rates, lower sensitivity to habitat conditions, higher competitive ability or younger reproductive age. We compared growth and reproduction of different groups of epiphytic bryophytes with contrasting dispersal (asexual vs. sexual) and life history strategies (colonists, short- and long-lived shuttle species, perennial stayers) in an old-growth forest stand in the boreo-nemoral region in eastern Sweden. No differences were seen in relative growth rates between asexual and sexual species. Long-lived shuttles had lower growth rates than colonists and perennial stayers. Most groups grew best at intermediate bark pH. Interactions with other epiphytes had a small, often positive effect on growth. Neither differences in sensitivity of growth to habitat conditions nor differences in competitive abilities among species groups were found. Habitat conditions, however, influenced the production of sporophytes, but not of asexual diaspores. Presence of sporophytes negatively affected growth, whereas presence of asexual diaspores did not. Sexual species had to reach a certain colony size before starting to reproduce, whereas no such threshold existed for asexual reproduction. The results indicate that the epiphyte metacommunity is structured by two main trade-offs: dispersal distance vs. reproductive age, and dispersal distance vs. sensitivity to habitat quality. There seems to be a trade-off between growth and sexual reproduction, but not asexual. Trade-offs in species traits may be shaped by conflicting selection pressures imposed by habitat turnover and connectivity rather than by species interactions.

Strong Spatial Influence on Colonization Rates in a Pioneer Zooplankton Metacommunity

PubMed Central

Frisch, Dagmar; Cottenie, Karl; Badosa, Anna; Green, Andy J.

2012-01-01

The magnitude of community-wide dispersal is central to metacommunity models, yet dispersal is notoriously difficult to quantify in passive and cryptic dispersers such as many freshwater invertebrates. By overcoming the problem of quantifying dispersal rates, colonization rates into new habitats can provide a useful estimate of the magnitude of effective dispersal. Here we study the influence of spatial and local processes on colonization rates into new ponds that indicate differential dispersal limitation of major zooplankton taxa, with important implications for metacommunity dynamics. We identify regional and local factors that affect zooplankton colonization rates and spatial patterns in a large-scale experimental system. Our study differs from others in the unique setup of the experimental pond area by which we were able to test spatial and environmental variables at a large spatial scale. We quantified colonization rates separately for the Copepoda, Cladocera and Rotifera from samples collected over a period of 21 months in 48 newly constructed temporary ponds of 0.18–2.95 ha distributed in a restored wetland area of 2,700 ha in Doñana National Park, Southern Spain. Species richness upon initial sampling of new ponds was about one third of that in reference ponds, although the rate of detection of new species from thereon were not significantly different, probably owing to high turnover in the dynamic, temporary reference ponds. Environmental heterogeneity had no detectable effect on colonization rates in new ponds. In contrast, connectivity, space (based on latitude and longitude) and surface area were key determinants of colonization rates for copepods and cladocerans. This suggests dispersal limitation in cladocerans and copepods, but not in rotifers, possibly due to differences in propagule size and abundance. PMID:22792241

Strong spatial influence on colonization rates in a pioneer zooplankton metacommunity.

PubMed

Frisch, Dagmar; Cottenie, Karl; Badosa, Anna; Green, Andy J

2012-01-01

The magnitude of community-wide dispersal is central to metacommunity models, yet dispersal is notoriously difficult to quantify in passive and cryptic dispersers such as many freshwater invertebrates. By overcoming the problem of quantifying dispersal rates, colonization rates into new habitats can provide a useful estimate of the magnitude of effective dispersal. Here we study the influence of spatial and local processes on colonization rates into new ponds that indicate differential dispersal limitation of major zooplankton taxa, with important implications for metacommunity dynamics. We identify regional and local factors that affect zooplankton colonization rates and spatial patterns in a large-scale experimental system. Our study differs from others in the unique setup of the experimental pond area by which we were able to test spatial and environmental variables at a large spatial scale. We quantified colonization rates separately for the Copepoda, Cladocera and Rotifera from samples collected over a period of 21 months in 48 newly constructed temporary ponds of 0.18-2.95 ha distributed in a restored wetland area of 2,700 ha in Doñana National Park, Southern Spain. Species richness upon initial sampling of new ponds was about one third of that in reference ponds, although the rate of detection of new species from thereon were not significantly different, probably owing to high turnover in the dynamic, temporary reference ponds. Environmental heterogeneity had no detectable effect on colonization rates in new ponds. In contrast, connectivity, space (based on latitude and longitude) and surface area were key determinants of colonization rates for copepods and cladocerans. This suggests dispersal limitation in cladocerans and copepods, but not in rotifers, possibly due to differences in propagule size and abundance.

Biodiversity and ecosystem stability across scales in metacommunities

PubMed Central

Wang, Shaopeng; Loreau, Michel

2016-01-01

Although diversity-stability relationships have been extensively studied in local ecosystems, the global biodiversity crisis calls for an improved understanding of these relationships in a spatial context. Here we use a dynamical model of competitive metacommunities to study the relationships between species diversity and ecosystem variability across scales. We derive analytic relationships under a limiting case; these results are extended to more general cases with numerical simulations. Our model shows that, while alpha diversity decreases local ecosystem variability, beta diversity generally contributes to increasing spatial asynchrony among local ecosystems. Consequently, both alpha and beta diversity provide stabilizing effects for regional ecosystems, through local and spatial insurance effects, respectively. We further show that at the regional scale, the stabilizing effect of biodiversity increases as spatial environmental correlation increases. Our findings have important implications for understanding the interactive effects of global environmental changes (e.g. environmental homogenization) and biodiversity loss on ecosystem sustainability at large scales. PMID:26918536

A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective

PubMed Central

Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost

2012-01-01

We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The ‘evolving metacommunity’ framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats. PMID:25568038

Spatial relationships in a dendritic network: the herpetofaunal metacommunity of the Mattole River catchment of northwest California.

Treesearch

Hartwell Welsh; Garth Hodgson

2010-01-01

We investigated the aquatic and riparian herpetofauna in a 789 km² river catchment in northwest California to examine competing theories of biotic community structuring in catchment stream networks. Research in fluvial geomorphology has resulted in multi-scale models of dynamic processes that cyclically create, maintain, and destroy environments in stream...

Effects of diffusion on total biomass in simple metacommunities.

PubMed

Ruiz-Herrera, Alfonso; Torres, Pedro J

2018-06-14

This paper analyzes the effects of diffusion on the overall population size of the different species of a metacommunity. Depending on precise thresholds, we determine whether increasing the dispersal rate of a species has a positive or negative effect on population abundance. These thresholds depend on the interaction type of the species and the quality of the patches. The motivation for researching this issue is that spatial structure is a source of new biological insights with management interest. For instance, in a metacommunity of two competitors, the movement of a competitor could lead to a decrease of the overall population size of both species. On the other hand, we discuss when some classic results of metapopulation theory are preserved in metacommunities. Our results complement some recent experimental work by Zhang and collaborators. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Invertebrate Metacommunity Structure and Dynamics in an Andean Glacial Stream Network Facing Climate Change

PubMed Central

Cauvy-Fraunié, Sophie; Espinosa, Rodrigo; Andino, Patricio; Jacobsen, Dean; Dangles, Olivier

2015-01-01

Under the ongoing climate change, understanding the mechanisms structuring the spatial distribution of aquatic species in glacial stream networks is of critical importance to predict the response of aquatic biodiversity in the face of glacier melting. In this study, we propose to use metacommunity theory as a conceptual framework to better understand how river network structure influences the spatial organization of aquatic communities in glacierized catchments. At 51 stream sites in an Andean glacierized catchment (Ecuador), we sampled benthic macroinvertebrates, measured physico-chemical and food resource conditions, and calculated geographical, altitudinal and glaciality distances among all sites. Using partial redundancy analysis, we partitioned community variation to evaluate the relative strength of environmental conditions (e.g., glaciality, food resource) vs. spatial processes (e.g., overland, watercourse, and downstream directional dispersal) in organizing the aquatic metacommunity. Results revealed that both environmental and spatial variables significantly explained community variation among sites. Among all environmental variables, the glacial influence component best explained community variation. Overland spatial variables based on geographical and altitudinal distances significantly affected community variation. Watercourse spatial variables based on glaciality distances had a unique significant effect on community variation. Within alpine catchment, glacial meltwater affects macroinvertebrate metacommunity structure in many ways. Indeed, the harsh environmental conditions characterizing glacial influence not only constitute the primary environmental filter but also, limit water-borne macroinvertebrate dispersal. Therefore, glacier runoff acts as an aquatic dispersal barrier, isolating species in headwater streams, and preventing non-adapted species to colonize throughout the entire stream network. Under a scenario of glacier runoff decrease, we expect a reduction in both environmental filtering and dispersal limitation, inducing a taxonomic homogenization of the aquatic fauna in glacierized catchments as well as the extinction of specialized species in headwater groundwater and glacier-fed streams, and consequently an irreversible reduction in regional diversity. PMID:26308853

Terrestrial origin of bacterial communities in complex boreal freshwater networks.

PubMed

Ruiz-González, Clara; Niño-García, Juan Pablo; Del Giorgio, Paul A

2015-08-25

Bacteria inhabiting boreal freshwaters are part of metacommunities where local assemblages are often linked by the flow of water in the landscape, yet the resulting spatial structure and the boundaries of the network metacommunity have never been explored. Here, we reconstruct the spatial structure of the bacterial metacommunity in a complex boreal aquatic network by determining the taxonomic composition of bacterial communities along the entire terrestrial/aquatic continuum, including soil and soilwaters, headwater streams, large rivers and lakes. We show that the network metacommunity has a directional spatial structure driven by a common terrestrial origin of aquatic communities, which are numerically dominated by taxa recruited from soils. Local community assembly is driven by variations along the hydrological continuum in the balance between mass effects and species sorting of terrestrial taxa, and seems further influenced by priority effects related to the spatial sequence of entry of soil bacteria into the network. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The role of dispersal mode and habitat specialization for metacommunity structure of shallow beach invertebrates.

PubMed

Rodil, Iván F; Lucena-Moya, Paloma; Jokinen, Henri; Ollus, Victoria; Wennhage, Håkan; Villnäs, Anna; Norkko, Alf

2017-01-01

Metacommunity ecology recognizes the interplay between local and regional patterns in contributing to spatial variation in community structure. In aquatic systems, the relative importance of such patterns depends mainly on the potential connectivity of the specific system. Thus, connectivity is expected to increase in relation to the degree of water movement, and to depend on the specific traits of the study organism. We examined the role of environmental and spatial factors in structuring benthic communities from a highly connected shallow beach network using a metacommunity approach. Both factors contributed to a varying degree to the structure of the local communities suggesting that environmental filters and dispersal-related mechanisms played key roles in determining abundance patterns. We categorized benthic taxa according to their dispersal mode (passive vs. active) and habitat specialization (generalist vs. specialist) to understand the relative importance of environment and dispersal related processes for shallow beach metacommunities. Passive dispersers were predicted by a combination of environmental and spatial factors, whereas active dispersers were not spatially structured and responded only to local environmental factors. Generalists were predicted primarily by spatial factors, while specialists were only predicted by local environmental factors. The results suggest that the role of the spatial component in metacommunity organization is greater in open coastal waters, such as shallow beaches, compared to less-connected environmentally controlled aquatic systems. Our results also reveal a strong environmental role in structuring the benthic metacommunity of shallow beaches. Specifically, we highlight the sensitivity of shallow beach macrofauna to environmental factors related to eutrophication proxies.

The role of dispersal mode and habitat specialization for metacommunity structure of shallow beach invertebrates

PubMed Central

Lucena-Moya, Paloma; Jokinen, Henri; Ollus, Victoria; Wennhage, Håkan; Villnäs, Anna; Norkko, Alf

2017-01-01

Metacommunity ecology recognizes the interplay between local and regional patterns in contributing to spatial variation in community structure. In aquatic systems, the relative importance of such patterns depends mainly on the potential connectivity of the specific system. Thus, connectivity is expected to increase in relation to the degree of water movement, and to depend on the specific traits of the study organism. We examined the role of environmental and spatial factors in structuring benthic communities from a highly connected shallow beach network using a metacommunity approach. Both factors contributed to a varying degree to the structure of the local communities suggesting that environmental filters and dispersal-related mechanisms played key roles in determining abundance patterns. We categorized benthic taxa according to their dispersal mode (passive vs. active) and habitat specialization (generalist vs. specialist) to understand the relative importance of environment and dispersal related processes for shallow beach metacommunities. Passive dispersers were predicted by a combination of environmental and spatial factors, whereas active dispersers were not spatially structured and responded only to local environmental factors. Generalists were predicted primarily by spatial factors, while specialists were only predicted by local environmental factors. The results suggest that the role of the spatial component in metacommunity organization is greater in open coastal waters, such as shallow beaches, compared to less-connected environmentally controlled aquatic systems. Our results also reveal a strong environmental role in structuring the benthic metacommunity of shallow beaches. Specifically, we highlight the sensitivity of shallow beach macrofauna to environmental factors related to eutrophication proxies. PMID:28196112

Biodiversity and ecosystem stability across scales in metacommunities.

PubMed

Wang, Shaopeng; Loreau, Michel

2016-05-01

Although diversity-stability relationships have been extensively studied in local ecosystems, the global biodiversity crisis calls for an improved understanding of these relationships in a spatial context. Here, we use a dynamical model of competitive metacommunities to study the relationships between species diversity and ecosystem variability across scales. We derive analytic relationships under a limiting case; these results are extended to more general cases with numerical simulations. Our model shows that, while alpha diversity decreases local ecosystem variability, beta diversity generally contributes to increasing spatial asynchrony among local ecosystems. Consequently, both alpha and beta diversity provide stabilising effects for regional ecosystems, through local and spatial insurance effects respectively. We further show that at the regional scale, the stabilising effect of biodiversity increases as spatial environmental correlation increases. Our findings have important implications for understanding the interactive effects of global environmental changes (e.g. environmental homogenisation) and biodiversity loss on ecosystem sustainability at large scales. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Effects of stream topology on ecological community results from neutral models

EPA Science Inventory

While neutral theory and models have stimulated considerable literature, less well investigated is the effect of topology on neutral metacommunity model simulations. We implemented a neutral metacommunity model using two different stream network topologies, a widely branched netw...

SYNCSA--R tool for analysis of metacommunities based on functional traits and phylogeny of the community components.

PubMed

Debastiani, Vanderlei J; Pillar, Valério D

2012-08-01

SYNCSA is an R package for the analysis of metacommunities based on functional traits and phylogeny of the community components. It offers tools to calculate several matrix correlations that express trait-convergence assembly patterns, trait-divergence assembly patterns and phylogenetic signal in functional traits at the species pool level and at the metacommunity level. SYNCSA is a package for the R environment, under a GPL-2 open-source license and freely available on CRAN official web server for R (http://cran.r-project.org). vanderleidebastiani@yahoo.com.br.

Succession of Ephemeral Secondary Forests and Their Limited Role for the Conservation of Floristic Diversity in a Human-Modified Tropical Landscape

PubMed Central

van Breugel, Michiel; Hall, Jefferson S.; Craven, Dylan; Bailon, Mario; Hernandez, Andres; Abbene, Michele; van Breugel, Paulo

2013-01-01

Both local- and landscape-scale processes drive succession of secondary forests in human-modified tropical landscapes. Nonetheless, until recently successional changes in composition and diversity have been predominantly studied at the patch level. Here, we used a unique dataset with 45 randomly selected sites across a mixed-use tropical landscape in central Panama to study forest succession simultaneously on local and landscape scales and across both life stages (seedling, sapling, juvenile and adult trees) and life forms (shrubs, trees, lianas, and palms). To understand the potential of these secondary forests to conserve tree species diversity, we also evaluated the diversity of species that can persist as viable metapopulations in a dynamic patchwork of short-lived successional forests, using different assumptions about the average relative size at reproductive maturity. We found a deterministic shift in the diversity and composition of the local plant communities as well as the metacommunity, driven by variation in the rate at which species recruited into and disappeared from the secondary forests across the landscape. Our results indicate that dispersal limitation and the successional niche operate simultaneously and shape successional dynamics of the metacommunity of these early secondary forests. A high diversity of plant species across the metacommunity of early secondary forests shows a potential for restoration of diverse forests through natural succession, when trees and fragments of older forests are maintained in the agricultural matrix and land is abandoned or set aside for a long period of time. On the other hand, during the first 32 years the number of species with mature-sized individuals was a relatively small and strongly biased sub-sample of the total species pool. This implies that ephemeral secondary forests have a limited role in the long-term conservation of tree species diversity in human-modified tropical landscapes. PMID:24349283

Asynchrony among local communities stabilises ecosystem function of metacommunities.

PubMed

Wilcox, Kevin R; Tredennick, Andrew T; Koerner, Sally E; Grman, Emily; Hallett, Lauren M; Avolio, Meghan L; La Pierre, Kimberly J; Houseman, Gregory R; Isbell, Forest; Johnson, David Samuel; Alatalo, Juha M; Baldwin, Andrew H; Bork, Edward W; Boughton, Elizabeth H; Bowman, William D; Britton, Andrea J; Cahill, James F; Collins, Scott L; Du, Guozhen; Eskelinen, Anu; Gough, Laura; Jentsch, Anke; Kern, Christel; Klanderud, Kari; Knapp, Alan K; Kreyling, Juergen; Luo, Yiqi; McLaren, Jennie R; Megonigal, Patrick; Onipchenko, Vladimir; Prevéy, Janet; Price, Jodi N; Robinson, Clare H; Sala, Osvaldo E; Smith, Melinda D; Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Souza, Lara; Tilman, David; White, Shannon R; Xu, Zhuwen; Yahdjian, Laura; Yu, Qiang; Zhang, Pengfei; Zhang, Yunhai

2017-12-01

Temporal stability of ecosystem functioning increases the predictability and reliability of ecosystem services, and understanding the drivers of stability across spatial scales is important for land management and policy decisions. We used species-level abundance data from 62 plant communities across five continents to assess mechanisms of temporal stability across spatial scales. We assessed how asynchrony (i.e. different units responding dissimilarly through time) of species and local communities stabilised metacommunity ecosystem function. Asynchrony of species increased stability of local communities, and asynchrony among local communities enhanced metacommunity stability by a wide range of magnitudes (1-315%); this range was positively correlated with the size of the metacommunity. Additionally, asynchronous responses among local communities were linked with species' populations fluctuating asynchronously across space, perhaps stemming from physical and/or competitive differences among local communities. Accordingly, we suggest spatial heterogeneity should be a major focus for maintaining the stability of ecosystem services at larger spatial scales. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On neutral metacommunity patterns of river basins at different scales of aggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Convertino, Matteo; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Azaele, Sandro; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2009-08-01

Neutral metacommunity models for spatial biodiversity patterns are implemented on river networks acting as ecological corridors at different resolution. Coarse-graining elevation fields (under the constraint of preserving the basin mean elevation) produce a set of reconfigured drainage networks. The hydrologic assumption made implies uniform runoff production such that each link has the same habitat capacity. Despite the universal scaling properties shown by river basins regardless of size, climate, vegetation, or exposed lithology, we find that species richness at local and regional scales exhibits resolution-dependent behavior. In addition, we investigate species-area relationships and rank-abundance patterns. The slopes of the species-area relationships, which are consistent over coarse-graining resolutions, match those found in real landscapes in the case of long-distance dispersal. The rank-abundance patterns are independent of the resolution over a broad range of dispersal length. Our results confirm that strong interactions occur between network structure and the dispersal of species and that under the assumption of neutral dynamics, these interactions produce resolution-dependent biodiversity patterns that diverge from expectations following from universal geomorphic scaling laws. Both in theoretical and in applied ecology studying how patterns change in resolution is relevant for understanding how ecological dynamics work in fragmented landscape and for sampling and biodiversity management campaigns, especially in consideration of climate change.

The community ecology of pathogens: coinfection, coexistence and community composition.

PubMed

Seabloom, Eric W; Borer, Elizabeth T; Gross, Kevin; Kendig, Amy E; Lacroix, Christelle; Mitchell, Charles E; Mordecai, Erin A; Power, Alison G

2015-04-01

Disease and community ecology share conceptual and theoretical lineages, and there has been a resurgence of interest in strengthening links between these fields. Building on recent syntheses focused on the effects of host community composition on single pathogen systems, we examine pathogen (microparasite) communities using a stochastic metacommunity model as a starting point to bridge community and disease ecology perspectives. Such models incorporate the effects of core community processes, such as ecological drift, selection and dispersal, but have not been extended to incorporate host-pathogen interactions, such as immunosuppression or synergistic mortality, that are central to disease ecology. We use a two-pathogen susceptible-infected (SI) model to fill these gaps in the metacommunity approach; however, SI models can be intractable for examining species-diverse, spatially structured systems. By placing disease into a framework developed for community ecology, our synthesis highlights areas ripe for progress, including a theoretical framework that incorporates host dynamics, spatial structuring and evolutionary processes, as well as the data needed to test the predictions of such a model. Our synthesis points the way for this framework and demonstrates that a deeper understanding of pathogen community dynamics will emerge from approaches working at the interface of disease and community ecology. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The evolution of the competition-dispersal trade-off affects α- and β-diversity in a heterogeneous metacommunity.

PubMed

Laroche, Fabien; Jarne, Philippe; Perrot, Thomas; Massol, Francois

2016-04-27

Difference in dispersal ability is a key driver of species coexistence in metacommunities. However, the available frameworks for interpreting species diversity patterns in natura often overlook trade-offs and evolutionary constraints associated with dispersal. Here, we build a metacommunity model accounting for dispersal evolution and a competition-dispersal trade-off. Depending on the distribution of carrying capacities among communities, species dispersal values are distributed either around a single strategy (evolutionarily stable strategy, ESS), or around distinct strategies (evolutionary branching, EB). We show that limited dispersal generates spatial aggregation of dispersal traits in ESS and EB scenarios, and that the competition-dispersal trade-off strengthens the pattern in the EB scenario. Importantly, individuals in larger (respectively (resp.) smaller) communities tend to harbour lower (resp. higher) dispersal, especially under the EB scenario. We explore how dispersal evolution affects species diversity patterns by comparing those from our model to the predictions of a neutral metacommunity model. The most marked difference is detected under EB, with distinctive values of both α- and β-diversity (e.g. the dissimilarity in species composition between small and large communities was significantly larger than neutral predictions). We conclude that, from an empirical perspective, jointly assessing community carrying capacity with species dispersal strategies should improve our understanding of diversity patterns in metacommunities. © 2016 The Author(s).

Risk Communication, Metacommunication, and Rhetorical Stases in the Aspen-EPA Superfund Controversy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stratman, James F.; And Others

1995-01-01

Explores the relationship between current theoretical definitions of risk communication, the unique national role that EPA plays in defining health and environmental risks, and possible explanations for EPA's inability to persuade Aspen, Colorado, to accept a cleanup plan. Explores ownership messages conveyed through metacommunication conflict…

Metacommunication, Social Pretend Play and Children with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Douglas, Susan; Stirling, Lesley

2012-01-01

This article investigates processes of engagement in social pretend play between children with autism (age range 3.6 to 7.2 years) and adult play partners, using a large corpus of conversational data. We take a qualitative discourse analytic approach to investigate the metacommunicative strategies used by the children. Our initial framework for…

Hierarchical drivers of reef-fish metacommunity structure.

PubMed

MacNeil, M Aaron; Graham, Nicholas A J; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Kulbicki, Michel; Galzin, René; Harmelin-Vivien, Mireille; Rushton, Steven P

2009-01-01

Coral reefs are highly complex ecological systems, where multiple processes interact across scales in space and time to create assemblages of exceptionally high biodiversity. Despite the increasing frequency of hierarchically structured sampling programs used in coral-reef science, little progress has been made in quantifying the relative importance of processes operating across multiple scales. The vast majority of reef studies are conducted, or at least analyzed, at a single spatial scale, ignoring the implicitly hierarchical structure of the overall system in favor of small-scale experiments or large-scale observations. Here we demonstrate how alpha (mean local number of species), beta diversity (degree of species dissimilarity among local sites), and gamma diversity (overall species richness) vary with spatial scale, and using a hierarchical, information-theoretic approach, we evaluate the relative importance of site-, reef-, and atoll-level processes driving the fish metacommunity structure among 10 atolls in French Polynesia. Process-based models, representing well-established hypotheses about drivers of reef-fish community structure, were assembled into a candidate set of 12 hierarchical linear models. Variation in fish abundance, biomass, and species richness were unevenly distributed among transect, reef, and atoll levels, establishing the relative contribution of variation at these spatial scales to the structure of the metacommunity. Reef-fish biomass, species richness, and the abundance of most functional-groups corresponded primarily with transect-level habitat diversity and atoll-lagoon size, whereas detritivore and grazer abundances were largely correlated with potential covariates of larval dispersal. Our findings show that (1) within-transect and among-atoll factors primarily drive the relationship between alpha and gamma diversity in this reef-fish metacommunity; (2) habitat is the primary correlate with reef-fish metacommunity structure at multiple spatial scales; and (3) inter-atoll connectedness was poorly correlated with the nonrandom clustering of reef-fish species. These results demonstrate the importance of modeling hierarchical data and processes in understanding reef-fish metacommunity structure.

The Role of Language Ability in Young Children's Cooperation during Play and Collaborative Interactions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vriens-van Hoogdalem, Anne-Greth; de Haan, Dorian M. P.; Boom, Jan

2016-01-01

Language and metacommunication are assumed to be important for accomplishing a high level of cooperation in social play. Research to date, however, does not address the relationship of language ability and metacommunication to the complexity of cooperation. This study investigated this relationship by observing 24 four- and five-year-old…

Temporal assemblage turnovers of intertidal foraminiferal communities from tropical (SE Caribbean) and temperate (NE England and SW Spain) regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costelloe, Ashleigh; Wilson, Brent; Horton, Benjamin P.; Hayek, Lee-Ann C.

2018-05-01

This is the first quantitative study of temporal assemblage turnovers of the relationships between intertidal foraminifera. Time series datasets collected from tropical Caroni Swamp and Claxton Bay (Trinidad, SE Caribbean) and temperate Cowpen Marsh (NE England, U.K.) and Bay of Cadiz (SW Spain) were used. The assemblage turnover index (ATI) examined species interrelationships through comparisons of monthly or biweekly species proportional abundances over one or two years. Species contributing to major assemblage turnovers (ATI > x + σ) were identified using the conditioned on-boundary index (CoBI). Foraminiferal species are heterogeneously distributed within the sediment; multiple sample stations at a study location cumulatively represent the foraminiferal metacommunity and clusters represent foraminiferal assemblages. The ATI and CoBI were applied to the proportional abundances of live specimens recorded for the metacommunity and assemblages at each location. At Caroni Swamp and Claxton Bay, major assemblage turnovers were driven by the most abundant species and the majority coincided with seasonal change or the arrival of the seasonal Orinoco plume in the Gulf of Paria. Seasonal turnovers of the foraminiferal metacommunities at temperate Cowpen Marsh and Bay of Cádiz occurred during the summer and winter. Major assemblage turnovers in the upper Cowpen Marsh occurred in the summer, and the lower marsh in the winter. Foraminiferans are useful bioindicators for monitoring the health of coastal environments. Understanding foraminiferal population dynamics will allow cyclical changes to be differentiated from abrupt and persistent changes, which are related to anthropogenic disturbances or long-term climate change. The ATI and CoBI are useful indices for quantitatively exploring relationships of foraminiferal populations over time.

Metacommunity and phylogenetic structure determine wildlife and zoonotic infectious disease patterns in time and space.

PubMed

Suzán, Gerardo; García-Peña, Gabriel E; Castro-Arellano, Ivan; Rico, Oscar; Rubio, André V; Tolsá, María J; Roche, Benjamin; Hosseini, Parviez R; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Murray, Kris A; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Vittecoq, Marion; Bailly, Xavier; Aguirre, A Alonso; Daszak, Peter; Prieur-Richard, Anne-Helene; Mills, James N; Guégan, Jean-Francois

2015-02-01

The potential for disease transmission at the interface of wildlife, domestic animals and humans has become a major concern for public health and conservation biology. Research in this subject is commonly conducted at local scales while the regional context is neglected. We argue that prevalence of infection at local and regional levels is influenced by three mechanisms occurring at the landscape level in a metacommunity context. First, (1) dispersal, colonization, and extinction of pathogens, reservoir or vector hosts, and nonreservoir hosts, may be due to stochastic and niche-based processes, thus determining distribution of all species, and then their potential interactions, across local communities (metacommunity structure). Second, (2) anthropogenic processes may drive environmental filtering of hosts, nonhosts, and pathogens. Finally, (3) phylogenetic diversity relative to reservoir or vector host(s), within and between local communities may facilitate pathogen persistence and circulation. Using a metacommunity approach, public heath scientists may better evaluate the factors that predispose certain times and places for the origin and emergence of infectious diseases. The multidisciplinary approach we describe fits within a comprehensive One Health and Ecohealth framework addressing zoonotic infectious disease outbreaks and their relationship to their hosts, other animals, humans, and the environment.

Species dispersal rates alter diversity and ecosystem stability in pond metacommunities.

PubMed

Howeth, Jennifer G; Leibold, Mathew A

2010-09-01

Metacommunity theory suggests that relationships between diversity and ecosystem stability can be determined by the rate of species dispersal among local communities. The predicted relationships, however, may depend upon the relative strength of local environmental processes and disturbance. Here we evaluate the role of dispersal frequency and local predation perturbations in affecting patterns of diversity and stability in pond plankton metacommunities. Pond metacommunities were composed of three mesocosm communities: one of the three communities maintained constant "press" predation from a selective predator, bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus); the second community maintained "press" conditions without predation; and the third community experienced recurrent "pulsed" predation from bluegill sunfish. The triads of pond communities were connected at either no, low (0.7%/d), or high (20%/d) planktonic dispersal. Richness and composition of zooplankton and stability of plankton biomass and ecosystem productivity were measured at local and regional spatial scales. Dispersal significantly affected diversity such that local and regional biotas at the low dispersal rate maintained the greatest number of species. The unimodal local dispersal-diversity relationship was predator-dependent, however, as selective press predation excluded species regardless of dispersal. Further, there was no effect of dispersal on beta diversity because predation generated local conditions that selected for distinct community assemblages. Spatial and temporal ecosystem stability responded to dispersal frequency but not predation. Low dispersal destabilized the spatial stability of producer biomass but stabilized temporal ecosystem productivity. The results indicate that selective predation can prevent species augmentation from mass effects but has no apparent influence on stability. Dispersal rates, in contrast, can have significant effects on both species diversity and ecosystem stability at multiple spatial scales in metacommunities.

A hierarchical framework for investigating epiphyte assemblages: networks, meta-communities, and scale.

PubMed

Burns, K C; Zotz, G

2010-02-01

Epiphytes are an important component of many forested ecosystems, yet our understanding of epiphyte communities lags far behind that of terrestrial-based plant communities. This discrepancy is exacerbated by the lack of a theoretical context to assess patterns in epiphyte community structure. We attempt to fill this gap by developing an analytical framework to investigate epiphyte assemblages, which we then apply to a data set on epiphyte distributions in a Panamanian rain forest. On a coarse scale, interactions between epiphyte species and host tree species can be viewed as bipartite networks, similar to pollination and seed dispersal networks. On a finer scale, epiphyte communities on individual host trees can be viewed as meta-communities, or suites of local epiphyte communities connected by dispersal. Similar analytical tools are typically employed to investigate species interaction networks and meta-communities, thus providing a unified analytical framework to investigate coarse-scale (network) and fine-scale (meta-community) patterns in epiphyte distributions. Coarse-scale analysis of the Panamanian data set showed that most epiphyte species interacted with fewer host species than expected by chance. Fine-scale analyses showed that epiphyte species richness on individual trees was lower than null model expectations. Therefore, epiphyte distributions were clumped at both scales, perhaps as a result of dispersal limitations. Scale-dependent patterns in epiphyte species composition were observed. Epiphyte-host networks showed evidence of negative co-occurrence patterns, which could arise from adaptations among epiphyte species to avoid competition for host species, while most epiphyte meta-communities were distributed at random. Application of our "meta-network" analytical framework in other locales may help to identify general patterns in the structure of epiphyte assemblages and their variation in space and time.

A Metacommunity Framework for Enhancing the Effectiveness of Biological Monitoring Strategies

PubMed Central

Roque, Fabio O.; Cottenie, Karl

2012-01-01

Because of inadequate knowledge and funding, the use of biodiversity indicators is often suggested as a way to support management decisions. Consequently, many studies have analyzed the performance of certain groups as indicator taxa. However, in addition to knowing whether certain groups can adequately represent the biodiversity as a whole, we must also know whether they show similar responses to the main structuring processes affecting biodiversity. Here we present an application of the metacommunity framework for evaluating the effectiveness of biodiversity indicators. Although the metacommunity framework has contributed to a better understanding of biodiversity patterns, there is still limited discussion about its implications for conservation and biomonitoring. We evaluated the effectiveness of indicator taxa in representing spatial variation in macroinvertebrate community composition in Atlantic Forest streams, and the processes that drive this variation. We focused on analyzing whether some groups conform to environmental processes and other groups are more influenced by spatial processes, and on how this can help in deciding which indicator group or groups should be used. We showed that a relatively small subset of taxa from the metacommunity would represent 80% of the variation in community composition shown by the entire metacommunity. Moreover, this subset does not have to be composed of predetermined taxonomic groups, but rather can be defined based on random subsets. We also found that some random subsets composed of a small number of genera performed better in responding to major environmental gradients. There were also random subsets that seemed to be affected by spatial processes, which could indicate important historical processes. We were able to integrate in the same theoretical and practical framework, the selection of biodiversity surrogates, indicators of environmental conditions, and more importantly, an explicit integration of environmental and spatial processes into the selection approach. PMID:22937068

Five Years of Experimental Warming Increases the Biodiversity and Productivity of Phytoplankton

PubMed Central

Yvon-Durocher, Gabriel; Allen, Andrew P.; Cellamare, Maria; Dossena, Matteo; Gaston, Kevin J.; Leitao, Maria; Montoya, José M.; Reuman, Daniel C.; Woodward, Guy; Trimmer, Mark

2015-01-01

Phytoplankton are key components of aquatic ecosystems, fixing CO2 from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and supporting secondary production, yet relatively little is known about how future global warming might alter their biodiversity and associated ecosystem functioning. Here, we explore how the structure, function, and biodiversity of a planktonic metacommunity was altered after five years of experimental warming. Our outdoor mesocosm experiment was open to natural dispersal from the regional species pool, allowing us to explore the effects of experimental warming in the context of metacommunity dynamics. Warming of 4°C led to a 67% increase in the species richness of the phytoplankton, more evenly-distributed abundance, and higher rates of gross primary productivity. Warming elevated productivity indirectly, by increasing the biodiversity and biomass of the local phytoplankton communities. Warming also systematically shifted the taxonomic and functional trait composition of the phytoplankton, favoring large, colonial, inedible phytoplankton taxa, suggesting stronger top-down control, mediated by zooplankton grazing played an important role. Overall, our findings suggest that temperature can modulate species coexistence, and through such mechanisms, global warming could, in some cases, increase the species richness and productivity of phytoplankton communities. PMID:26680314

Hydrology Affects Environmental and Spatial Structuring of Microalgal Metacommunities in Tropical Pacific Coast Wetlands.

PubMed

Rojo, Carmen; Mesquita-Joanes, Francesc; Monrós, Juan S; Armengol, Javier; Sasa, Mahmood; Bonilla, Fabián; Rueda, Ricardo; Benavent-Corai, José; Piculo, Rubén; Segura, M Matilde

2016-01-01

The alternating climate between wet and dry periods has important effects on the hydrology and therefore on niche-based processes of water bodies in tropical areas. Additionally, assemblages of microorganism can show spatial patterns, in the form of a distance decay relationship due to their size or life form. We aimed to test spatial and environmental effects, modulated by a seasonal flooding climatic pattern, on the distribution of microalgae in 30 wetlands of a tropical dry forest region: the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Three surveys were conducted corresponding to the beginning, the highest peak, and the end of the hydrological year during the wet season, and species abundance and composition of planktonic and benthic microalgae was determined. Variation partitioning analysis (as explained by spatial distance or environmental factors) was applied to each seasonal dataset by means of partial redundancy analysis. Our results show that microalgal assemblages were structured by spatial and environmental factors depending on the hydrological period of the year. At the onset of hydroperiod and during flooding, neutral effects dominated community dynamics, but niche-based local effects resulted in more structured algal communities at the final periods of desiccating water bodies. Results suggest that climate-mediated effects on hydrology can influence the relative role of spatial and environmental factors on metacommunities of microalgae. Such variability needs to be accounted in order to describe accurately community dynamics in tropical coastal wetlands.

Hydrology Affects Environmental and Spatial Structuring of Microalgal Metacommunities in Tropical Pacific Coast Wetlands

PubMed Central

Rojo, Carmen; Mesquita-Joanes, Francesc; Monrós, Juan S.; Armengol, Javier; Sasa, Mahmood; Bonilla, Fabián; Rueda, Ricardo; Benavent-Corai, José; Piculo, Rubén; Segura, M. Matilde

2016-01-01

The alternating climate between wet and dry periods has important effects on the hydrology and therefore on niche-based processes of water bodies in tropical areas. Additionally, assemblages of microorganism can show spatial patterns, in the form of a distance decay relationship due to their size or life form. We aimed to test spatial and environmental effects, modulated by a seasonal flooding climatic pattern, on the distribution of microalgae in 30 wetlands of a tropical dry forest region: the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Three surveys were conducted corresponding to the beginning, the highest peak, and the end of the hydrological year during the wet season, and species abundance and composition of planktonic and benthic microalgae was determined. Variation partitioning analysis (as explained by spatial distance or environmental factors) was applied to each seasonal dataset by means of partial redundancy analysis. Our results show that microalgal assemblages were structured by spatial and environmental factors depending on the hydrological period of the year. At the onset of hydroperiod and during flooding, neutral effects dominated community dynamics, but niche-based local effects resulted in more structured algal communities at the final periods of desiccating water bodies. Results suggest that climate-mediated effects on hydrology can influence the relative role of spatial and environmental factors on metacommunities of microalgae. Such variability needs to be accounted in order to describe accurately community dynamics in tropical coastal wetlands. PMID:26900916

Fragmentation alters stream fish community structure in dendritic ecological networks.

PubMed

Perkin, Joshuah S; Gido, Keith B

2012-12-01

Effects of fragmentation on the ecology of organisms occupying dendritic ecological networks (DENs) have recently been described through both conceptual and mathematical models, but few hypotheses have been tested in complex, real-world ecosystems. Stream fishes provide a model system for assessing effects of fragmentation on the structure of communities occurring within DENs, including how fragmentation alters metacommunity dynamics and biodiversity. A recently developed habitat-availability measure, the "dendritic connectivity index" (DCI), allows for assigning quantitative measures of connectivity in DENs regardless of network extent or complexity, and might be used to predict fish community response to fragmentation. We characterized stream fish community structure in 12 DENs in the Great Plains, USA, during periods of dynamic (summer) and muted (fall) discharge regimes to test the DCI as a predictive model of fish community response to fragmentation imposed by road crossings. Results indicated that fish communities in stream segments isolated by road crossings had reduced species richness (alpha diversity) relative to communities that maintained connectivity with the surrounding DEN during summer and fall. Furthermore, isolated communities had greater dissimilarity (beta diversity) to downstream sites notisolated by road crossings during summer and fall. Finally, dissimilarity among communities within DENs decreased as a function of increased habitat connectivity (measured using the DCI) for summer and fall, suggesting that communities within highly connected DENs tend to be more homogeneous. Our results indicate that the DCI is sensitive to community effects of fragmentation in riverscapes and might be used by managers to predict ecological responses to changes in habitat connectivity. Moreover, our findings illustrate that relating structural connectivity of riverscapes to functional connectivity among communities might aid in maintaining metacommunity dynamics and biodiversity in complex dendritic ecosystems.

An epidemic model for the interactions between thermal regime of rivers and transmission of Proliferative Kidney Disease in salmonid fish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carraro, Luca; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Strepparava, Nicole; Hartikainen, Hanna; Rinaldo, Andrea

2015-04-01

Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) affects salmonid populations in European and North-American rivers. It is caused by the endoparasitic myxozoan Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, which exploits freshwater bryozoans (Fredericella sultana) and salmonids as primary and secondary hosts, respectively. Incidence and mortality, which can reach up to 90-100%, are known to be strongly related to water temperature. PKD has been present in brown trout population for a long time but has recently increased rapidly in incidence and severity causing a decline in fish catches in many countries. In addition, environmental changes are feared to cause PKD outbreaks at higher latitude and altitude regions as warmer temperatures promote disease development. This calls for a better comprehension of the interactions between disease dynamics and the thermal regime of rivers, in order to possibly devise strategies for disease management. In this perspective, a spatially explicit model of PKD epidemiology in riverine host metacommunities is proposed. The model aims at summarizing the knowledge on the modes of transmission of the disease and the life-cycle of the parasite, making the connection between temperature and epidemiological parameters explicit. The model accounts for both local population and disease dynamics of bryozoans and fish and hydrodynamic dispersion of the parasite spores and hosts along the river network. The model is time-hybrid, coupling inter-seasonal and intra-seasonal dynamics, the former being described in a continuous time domain, the latter seen as time steps of a discrete time domain. In order to test the model, a case study is conducted in river Wigger (Cantons of Aargau and Lucerne, Switzerland), where data about water temperature, brown trout and bryozoan populations and PKD prevalence are being collected.

Identifying the core seed bank of a complex boreal bacterial metacommunity.

PubMed

Ruiz-González, Clara; Niño-García, Juan Pablo; Kembel, Steven W; Del Giorgio, Paul A

2017-09-01

Seed banks are believed to contribute to compositional changes within and across microbial assemblages, but the application of this concept to natural communities remains challenging. Here we describe the core seed bank of a bacterial metacommunity from a boreal watershed, using the spatial distribution of bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTUs) across 223 heterogeneous terrestrial, aquatic and phyllosphere bacterial assemblages. Taxa were considered potential seeds if they transitioned from rare to abundant somewhere within the metacommunity and if they were ubiquitous and able to persist under unfavorable conditions, the latter assessed by checking their presence in three deeply sequenced samples (one soil, one river and one lake, 2.2-3 million reads per sample). We show that only a small fraction (13%) of all detected OTUs constitute a metacommunity seed bank that is shared between all terrestrial and aquatic communities, but not by phyllosphere assemblages, which seem to recruit from a different taxa pool. Our results suggest directional recruitment driven by the flow of water in the landscape, since most aquatic sequences were associated to OTUs found in a single deeply-sequenced soil sample, but only 45% of terrestrial sequences belonged to OTUs found in the two deeply-sequenced aquatic communities. Finally, we hypothesize that extreme rarity, and its interplay with water residence time and growth rates, may further constrain the size of the potential seed bank.

Estimating and interpreting migration of Amazonian forests using spatially implicit and semi-explicit neutral models.

PubMed

Pos, Edwin; Guevara Andino, Juan Ernesto; Sabatier, Daniel; Molino, Jean-François; Pitman, Nigel; Mogollón, Hugo; Neill, David; Cerón, Carlos; Rivas-Torres, Gonzalo; Di Fiore, Anthony; Thomas, Raquel; Tirado, Milton; Young, Kenneth R; Wang, Ophelia; Sierra, Rodrigo; García-Villacorta, Roosevelt; Zagt, Roderick; Palacios Cuenca, Walter; Aulestia, Milton; Ter Steege, Hans

2017-06-01

With many sophisticated methods available for estimating migration, ecologists face the difficult decision of choosing for their specific line of work. Here we test and compare several methods, performing sanity and robustness tests, applying to large-scale data and discussing the results and interpretation. Five methods were selected to compare for their ability to estimate migration from spatially implicit and semi-explicit simulations based on three large-scale field datasets from South America (Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and Ecuador). Space was incorporated semi-explicitly by a discrete probability mass function for local recruitment, migration from adjacent plots or from a metacommunity. Most methods were able to accurately estimate migration from spatially implicit simulations. For spatially semi-explicit simulations, estimation was shown to be the additive effect of migration from adjacent plots and the metacommunity. It was only accurate when migration from the metacommunity outweighed that of adjacent plots, discrimination, however, proved to be impossible. We show that migration should be considered more an approximation of the resemblance between communities and the summed regional species pool. Application of migration estimates to simulate field datasets did show reasonably good fits and indicated consistent differences between sets in comparison with earlier studies. We conclude that estimates of migration using these methods are more an approximation of the homogenization among local communities over time rather than a direct measurement of migration and hence have a direct relationship with beta diversity. As betadiversity is the result of many (non)-neutral processes, we have to admit that migration as estimated in a spatial explicit world encompasses not only direct migration but is an ecological aggregate of these processes. The parameter m of neutral models then appears more as an emerging property revealed by neutral theory instead of being an effective mechanistic parameter and spatially implicit models should be rejected as an approximation of forest dynamics.

Geomorphic controls on elevational gradients of species richness.

PubMed

Bertuzzo, Enrico; Carrara, Francesco; Mari, Lorenzo; Altermatt, Florian; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-02-16

Elevational gradients of biodiversity have been widely investigated, and yet a clear interpretation of the biotic and abiotic factors that determine how species richness varies with elevation is still elusive. In mountainous landscapes, habitats at different elevations are characterized by different areal extent and connectivity properties, key drivers of biodiversity, as predicted by metacommunity theory. However, most previous studies directly correlated species richness to elevational gradients of potential drivers, thus neglecting the interplay between such gradients and the environmental matrix. Here, we investigate the role of geomorphology in shaping patterns of species richness. We develop a spatially explicit zero-sum metacommunity model where species have an elevation-dependent fitness and otherwise neutral traits. Results show that ecological dynamics over complex terrains lead to the null expectation of a hump-shaped elevational gradient of species richness, a pattern widely observed empirically. Local species richness is found to be related to the landscape elevational connectivity, as quantified by a newly proposed metric that applies tools of complex network theory to measure the closeness of a site to others with similar habitat. Our theoretical results suggest clear geomorphic controls on elevational gradients of species richness and support the use of the landscape elevational connectivity as a null model for the analysis of the distribution of biodiversity.

Resistance and resilience of microbial communities--temporal and spatial insurance against perturbations.

PubMed

Baho, Didier L; Peter, Hannes; Tranvik, Lars J

2012-09-01

Bacteria play fundamental roles for many ecosystem processes; however, little empirical evidence is available on how environmental perturbations affect their composition and function. We investigated how spatial and temporal refuges affect the resistance and resilience of a freshwater bacterioplankton community upon a salinity pulse perturbation in continuous cultures. Attachment to a surface avoided the flushing out of cells and enabled re-colonization of the liquid phase after the perturbation, hence serving as a temporal refuge. A spatial refuge was established by introduction of bacteria from an undisturbed reservoir upstream of the continuous culture vessel, acting analogous to a regional species pool in a metacommunity. The salinity pulse affected bacterial community composition and the rates of respiration and the pattern of potential substrate utilization as well as the correlation between composition and function. Compared with the no-refuge treatment, the temporal refuge shortened return to pre-perturbation conditions, indicating enhanced community resilience. Composition and function were less disturbed in the treatment providing a spatial refuge, suggesting higher resistance. Our results highlight that spatial and temporal dynamics in general and refuges in particular need to be considered for conceptual progress in how microbial metacommunities are shaped by perturbations. © 2012 Society for Applied Microbiology and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Geomorphic controls on elevational gradients of species richness

PubMed Central

Bertuzzo, Enrico; Carrara, Francesco; Mari, Lorenzo; Altermatt, Florian; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-01-01

Elevational gradients of biodiversity have been widely investigated, and yet a clear interpretation of the biotic and abiotic factors that determine how species richness varies with elevation is still elusive. In mountainous landscapes, habitats at different elevations are characterized by different areal extent and connectivity properties, key drivers of biodiversity, as predicted by metacommunity theory. However, most previous studies directly correlated species richness to elevational gradients of potential drivers, thus neglecting the interplay between such gradients and the environmental matrix. Here, we investigate the role of geomorphology in shaping patterns of species richness. We develop a spatially explicit zero-sum metacommunity model where species have an elevation-dependent fitness and otherwise neutral traits. Results show that ecological dynamics over complex terrains lead to the null expectation of a hump-shaped elevational gradient of species richness, a pattern widely observed empirically. Local species richness is found to be related to the landscape elevational connectivity, as quantified by a newly proposed metric that applies tools of complex network theory to measure the closeness of a site to others with similar habitat. Our theoretical results suggest clear geomorphic controls on elevational gradients of species richness and support the use of the landscape elevational connectivity as a null model for the analysis of the distribution of biodiversity. PMID:26831107

Habitat heterogeneity hypothesis and edge effects in model metacommunities.

PubMed

Hamm, Michaela; Drossel, Barbara

2017-08-07

Spatial heterogeneity is an inherent property of any living environment and is expected to favour biodiversity due to a broader niche space. Furthermore, edges between different habitats can provide additional possibilities for species coexistence. Using computer simulations, this study examines metacommunities consisting of several trophic levels in heterogeneous environments in order to explore the above hypotheses on a community level. We model heterogeneous landscapes by using two different sized resource pools and evaluate the combined effect of dispersal and heterogeneity on local and regional species diversity. This diversity is obtained by running population dynamics and evaluating the robustness (i.e., the fraction of surviving species). The main results for regional robustness are in agreement with the habitat heterogeneity hypothesis, as the largest robustness is found in heterogeneous systems with intermediate dispersal rates. This robustness is larger than in homogeneous systems with the same total amount of resources. We study the edge effect by arranging the two types of resources in two homogeneous blocks. Different edge responses in diversity are observed, depending on dispersal strength. Local robustness is highest for edge habitats that contain the smaller amount of resource in combination with intermediate dispersal. The results show that dispersal is relevant to correctly identify edge responses on community level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prior Dietary Practices and Connections to a Human Gut Microbial Metacommunity Alter Responses to Diet Interventions.

PubMed

Griffin, Nicholas W; Ahern, Philip P; Cheng, Jiye; Heath, Andrew C; Ilkayeva, Olga; Newgard, Christopher B; Fontana, Luigi; Gordon, Jeffrey I

2017-01-11

Ensuring that gut microbiota respond consistently to prescribed dietary interventions, irrespective of prior dietary practices (DPs), is critical for effective nutritional therapy. To address this, we identified DP-associated gut bacterial taxa in individuals either practicing chronic calorie restriction with adequate nutrition (CRON) or without dietary restrictions (AMER). When transplanted into gnotobiotic mice, AMER and CRON microbiota responded predictably to CRON and AMER diets but with variable response strengths. An individual's microbiota is connected to other individuals' communities ("metacommunity") by microbial exchange. Sequentially cohousing AMER-colonized mice with two different groups of CRON-colonized mice simulated metacommunity effects, resulting in enhanced responses to a CRON diet intervention and changes in several metabolic features in AMER animals. This response was driven by an influx of CRON DP-associated taxa. Certain DPs may impair responses to dietary interventions, necessitating the introduction of diet-responsive bacterial lineages present in other individuals and identified using the strategies described. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Long-Term Macroecological Analysis of the Recovery of a Waterbird Metacommunity after Site Protection

PubMed Central

Pagel, Janina; Martínez-Abraín, Alejandro; Gómez, Juan Antonio; Jiménez, Juan; Oro, Daniel

2014-01-01

We used the so called “land-bridge island” or “nested-subsets” theory to test the resilience of a highly fragmented and perturbated waterbird metacommunity, after legal protection of 18 wetlands in the western Mediterranean. Sites were monitored during 28 years and two seasons per year. The metacommunity was composed by 44 species during breeding and 67 species during wintering, including shorebirds, ducks, herons, gulls and divers (Podicipedidae). We identified a strong nested pattern. Consistent with the fact that the study system was to a large extent a spatial biogeographical continuous for thousands of years, fragmented only during the last centuries due to human activities. Non-random selective extinction was the most likely historical process creating the nested pattern, operated by the differential carrying capacity (surface-area) of the remaining sites. We also found a positive temporal trend in nestedness and a decreasing trend in species turnover among sites (β-diversity), indicating that sites are increasingly more alike to each other (i.e. increased biotic homogenization). This decreasing trend in β-diversity was explained by an increasing trend in local (α) diversity by range expansion of half the study species. Regional (γ) diversity also increased over time, indicating that colonization from outside the study system also occurred. Overall our results suggest that the study metacommunity is recovering from historical anthropogenic perturbations, showing a high long-term resilience, as expected for highly vagile waterbirds. However, not all waterbird groups contributed equally to the recovery, with most breeding shorebird species and most wintering duck species showing no geographical expansion. PMID:25133798

Crying wolf? Biosecurity and metacommunication in the context of the 2009 swine flu pandemic.

PubMed

Nerlich, Brigitte; Koteyko, Nelya

2012-07-01

This article explores how the 2009 pandemic of swine flu (H1N1) intersected with issues of biosecurity in the context of an increasing entanglement between the spread of disease and the spread of information. Drawing on research into metacommunication, the article studies the rise of communication about ways in which swine flu was communicated, both globally and locally, during the pandemic. It examines and compares two corpora of texts, namely UK newspaper articles and blogs, written between 28 March and 11 June 2009, that is, the period from the start of the outbreak till the WHO announcement of the pandemic. Findings show that the interaction between traditional and digital media as well as the interaction between warnings about swine flu and previous warnings about other epidemics contributed to a heightened discourse of blame and counter-blame but also, more surprisingly, self-blame and reflections about the role the media in pandemic communication. The consequences of this increase in metacommunication for research into crisis communication are explored. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metacommunity theory as a multispecies, multiscale framework for studying the influence of river network structure on riverine communities and ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, B.L.; Swan, C.M.; Auerbach, D.A.; Campbell, Grant E.H.; Hitt, N.P.; Maloney, K.O.; Patrick, C.

2011-01-01

Explaining the mechanisms underlying patterns of species diversity and composition in riverine networks is challenging. Historically, community ecologists have conceived of communities as largely isolated entities and have focused on local environmental factors and interspecific interactions as the major forces determining species composition. However, stream ecologists have long embraced a multiscale approach to studying riverine ecosystems and have studied both local factors and larger-scale regional factors, such as dispersal and disturbance. River networks exhibit a dendritic spatial structure that can constrain aquatic organisms when their dispersal is influenced by or confined to the river network. We contend that the principles of metacommunity theory would help stream ecologists to understand how the complex spatial structure of river networks mediates the relative influences of local and regional control on species composition. From a basic ecological perspective, the concept is attractive because new evidence suggests that the importance of regional processes (dispersal) depends on spatial structure of habitat and on connection to the regional species pool. The role of local factors relative to regional factors will vary with spatial position in a river network. From an applied perspective, the long-standing view in ecology that local community composition is an indicator of habitat quality may not be uniformly applicable across a river network, but the strength of such bioassessment approaches probably will depend on spatial position in the network. The principles of metacommunity theory are broadly applicable across taxa and systems but seem of particular consequence to stream ecology given the unique spatial structure of riverine systems. By explicitly embracing processes at multiple spatial scales, metacommunity theory provides a foundation on which to build a richer understanding of stream communities.

Inferring the effects of potential dispersal routes on the metacommunity structure of stream insects: as the crow flies, as the fish swims or as the fox runs?

PubMed

Kärnä, Olli-Matti; Grönroos, Mira; Antikainen, Harri; Hjort, Jan; Ilmonen, Jari; Paasivirta, Lauri; Heino, Jani

2015-09-01

1. Metacommunity research relies largely on proxies for inferring the effect of dispersal on local community structure. Overland and watercourse distances have been typically used as such proxies. A good proxy for dispersal should, however, take into account more complex landscape features that can affect an organism's movement and dispersal. The cost distance approach does just that, allowing determining the path of least resistance across a landscape. 2. Here, we examined the distance decay of assemblage similarity within a subarctic stream insect metacommunity. We tested whether overland, watercourse and cumulative cost distances performed differently as correlates of dissimilarity in assemblage composition between sites. We also investigated the effect of body size and dispersal mode on metacommunity organization. 3. We found that dissimilarities in assemblage composition correlated more strongly with environmental than physical distances between sites. Overland and watercourse distances showed similar correlations to assemblage dissimilarity between sites, being sometimes significantly correlated with biological variation of entire insect communities. In metacommunities deconstructed by body size or dispersal mode, contrary to our expectation, passive dispersers showed a slightly stronger correlation than active dispersers to environmental differences between sites, although passive dispersers also showed a stronger correlation than active dispersers to physical distances between sites. The strength of correlation between environmental distance and biological dissimilarity also varied slightly among the body size classes. 4. After controlling for environmental differences between sites, cumulative cost distances were slightly better correlates of biological dissimilarities than overland or watercourse distances between sites. However, quantitative differences in correlation coefficients were small between different physical distances. 5. Although environmental differences typically override physical distances as determinants of the composition of stream insect assemblages, correlations between environmental distances and biological dissimilarities are typically rather weak. This undetermined variation may be attributable to dispersal processes, which may be captured using better proxies for the process. We suggest that further modifying the measurement of cost distances may be a fruitful avenue, especially if complemented by more direct natural history information on insect dispersal behaviour and distances travelled by them. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Grassland Fire and Cattle Grazing Regulate Reptile and Amphibian Assembly Among Patches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, Danelle M.

2014-12-01

Fire and grazing are common management schemes of grasslands globally and are potential drivers of reptilian and amphibian (herpetofauna) metacommunity dynamics. Few studies have assessed the impacts of fire and cattle grazing on herpetofauna assemblages in grasslands. A patch-burn grazing study at Osage Prairie, MO, USA in 2011-2012 created landscape patches with treatments of grazing, fire, and such legacies. Response variables were measured before and after the application of treatments, and I used robust-design occupancy modeling to estimate patch occupancy and detection rate within patches, and recolonization and extinction (i.e., dispersal) across patches. I conducted redundancy analysis and a permuted multivariate analysis of variance to determine if patch type and the associated environmental factors explained herpetofauna assemblage. Estimates for reptiles indicate that occupancy was seasonally constant in Control patches ( ψ ~ 0.5), but declined to ψ ~ 0.15 in patches following the applications of fire and grazing. Local extinctions for reptiles were higher in patches with fire or light grazing ( ɛ ~ 0.7) compared to the controls. For the riparian herpetofaunal community, patch type and grass height were important predictors of abundance; further, the turtles, lizards, snakes, and adult amphibians used different patch types. The aquatic amphibian community was predicted by watershed and in-stream characteristics, irrespective of fire or grazing. The varying responses from taxonomic groups demonstrate habitat partitioning across multiple patch types undergoing fire, cattle grazing, and legacy effects. Prairies will need an array of patch types to accommodate multiple herpetofauna species.

Combined effects of zooplankton grazing and dispersal on the diversity and assembly mechanisms of bacterial metacommunities.

PubMed

Berga, Mercè; Östman, Örjan; Lindström, Eva S; Langenheder, Silke

2015-07-01

Effects of dispersal and the presence of predators on diversity, assembly and functioning of bacterial communities are well studied in isolation. In reality, however, dispersal and trophic interactions act simultaneously and can therefore have combined effects, which are poorly investigated. We performed an experiment with aquatic metacommunities consisting of three environmentally different patches and manipulated dispersal rates among them as well as the presence or absence of the keystone species Daphnia magna. Daphnia magna reduced both local and regional diversity, whereas dispersal increased local diversity but decreased beta-diversity having no net effect on regional diversity. Dispersal modified the assembly mechanisms of bacterial communities by increasing the degree of determinism. Additionally, the combination of the D. magna and dispersal increased the importance of deterministic processes, presumably because predator-tolerant taxa were spread in the metacommunity via dispersal. Moreover, the presence of D. magna affected community composition, increased community respiration rates but did not affect bacterial production or abundance, whereas dispersal slightly increased bacterial production. In conclusion, our study suggests that predation by a keystone species such as D. magna and dispersal additively influence bacterial diversity, assembly processes and ecosystem functioning. © 2014 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Biodiversity on island chains: Neutral model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, Patrick B.

2010-11-01

A neutral ecology model is simulated on an island chain, in which neighboring islands can exchange individuals but only the first island is able to receive immigrants from a metacommunity. It is found by several measures that α -diversity decreases along the chain. Subtle changes in taxon abundance distributions can be detected when islands in the chain are compared to diversity-matched single islands. The island chain is found to have unexpectedly rich dynamics. Significant β -diversity correlations are found between islands in the chain, which are absent between diversity-matched single islands. The results potentially apply to human microbial biodiversity and biogeography and suggest that measurements of interindividual and intraindividual β -diversity may give insights into microbial community assembly mechanisms.

Collapse of biodiversity in fractured metacommunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Charles; Mehta, Pankaj

2014-03-01

The increasing threat to global biodiversity from climate change, habitat destruction, and other anthropogenic factors motivates the search for features that increase the resistance of ecological communities to destructive disturbances. Recently, Gibson et al (Science 2013) observed that the damming of the Khlong Saeng river in Thailand caused a rapid collapse of biodiversity in the remaining tropical forests. Using a theoretical model that maps the distribution of coexisting species in an ecological community to a disordered system of Ising spins, we show that fracturing a metacommunity by inhibiting species dispersal leads to a collapse in biodiversity in the constituent local communities. The biodiversity collapse can be modeled as a diffusion on a rough energy landscape, and the resulting estimate for the rate of extinction highlights the role of species functional diversity in maintaining biodiversity following a disturbance.

Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

2008-01-01

A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

Effects of species' similarity and dominance on the functional and phylogenetic structure of a plant meta-community.

PubMed

Chalmandrier, L; Münkemüller, T; Lavergne, S; Thuiller, W

2015-01-01

Different assembly processes drive the spatial structure of meta-communities (beta-diversity). Recently, functional and phylogenetic diversities have been suggested as indicators of these assembly processes. Assuming that diversity is a good proxy for niche overlap, high beta-diversity along environmental gradients should be the result of environmental filtering while low beta-diversity should stem from competitive interactions. So far, studies trying to disentangle the relative importance of these assembly processes have provided mixed results. One reason for this may be that these studies often rely on a single measure of diversity and thus implicitly make a choice on how they account for species relative abundances and how species similarities are captured by functional traits or phylogeny. Here, we tested the effect of gradually scaling the importance of dominance (the weight given to dominant vs. rare species) and species similarity (the weight given to small vs. large similarities) on resulting beta-diversity patterns of an alpine plant meta-community. To this end, we combined recent extensions of the Hill numbers framework with Pagel's phylogenetic tree transformation approach. We included functional (based on the leaf-height-seed spectrum) and phylogenetic facets of beta-diversity in our analysis and explicitly accounted for effects of environmental and spatial covariates. We found that functional beta-diversity, was high when the same weight was given to dominant vs. rare species and to large vs. small species' similarities. In contrast, phylogenetic beta-diversity was low when greater weight was given to dominant species and small species' similarities. Those results suggested that different environments along the gradients filtered different species according to their functional traits, while, the same competitive lineages dominated communities across the gradients. Our results highlight that functional vs. phylogenetic facets, presence-absence vs. abundance structure and different weights of species' dissimilarity provide complementary and important information on the drivers of meta-community structure. By utilizing the full extent of information provided by the flexible frameworks of Hill numbers and Pagel's tree transformation, we propose a new approach to disentangle the patterns resulting from different assembly processes.

When time affects space: Dispersal ability and extreme weather events determine metacommunity organization in marine sediments.

PubMed

Corte, Guilherme N; Gonçalves-Souza, Thiago; Checon, Helio H; Siegle, Eduardo; Coleman, Ross A; Amaral, A Cecília Z

2018-05-01

Community ecology has traditionally assumed that the distribution of species is mainly influenced by environmental processes. There is, however, growing evidence that environmental (habitat characteristics and biotic interactions) and spatial processes (factors that affect a local assemblage regardless of environmental conditions - typically related to dispersal and movement of species) interactively shape biological assemblages. A metacommunity, which is a set of local assemblages connected by dispersal of individuals, is spatial in nature and can be used as a straightforward approach for investigating the interactive and independent effects of both environmental and spatial processes. Here, we examined (i) how environmental and spatial processes affect the metacommunity organization of marine macroinvertebrates inhabiting the intertidal sediments of a biodiverse coastal ecosystem; (ii) whether the influence of these processes is constant through time or is affected by extreme weather events (storms); and (iii) whether the relative importance of these processes depends on the dispersal abilities of organisms. We found that macrobenthic assemblages are influenced by each of environmental and spatial variables; however, spatial processes exerted a stronger role. We also found that this influence changes through time and is modified by storms. Moreover, we observed that the influence of environmental and spatial processes varies according to the dispersal capabilities of organisms. More effective dispersers (i.e., species with planktonic larvae) are more affected by spatial processes whereas environmental variables had a stronger effect on weaker dispersers (i.e. species with low motility in larval and adult stages). These findings highlight that accounting for spatial processes and differences in species life histories is essential to improve our understanding of species distribution and coexistence patterns in intertidal soft-sediments. Furthermore, it shows that storms modify the structure of coastal assemblages. Given that the influence of spatial and environmental processes is not consistent through time, it is of utmost importance that future studies replicate sampling over different periods so the influence of temporal and stochastic factors on macrobenthic metacommunities can be better understood. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

(Meta)communication strategies in inclusive classes for deaf students.

PubMed

Kelman, Celeste Azulay; Branco, Angela Uchôa

2009-01-01

How can an inclusive classroom for deaf students be successful? The use of metacommunication strategies by teachers and hearing peers seems promising. Schools that promote this approach tend to improve deaf students' psychosocial development and academic achievement. However, this is not a general rule. The present study identifies the elements of success, with the investigators basing their analysis on extensive observation of 4 bilingual classes conducted by regular education and specialized teachers. The study was conducted in 3 public elementary schools in Brasilia, Brazil. Data were collected through direct observation (156 hours) and video recording (34 hours). Results were qualitatively analyzed from a microgenetic perspective. The investigators devised 14 categories of social interaction, e.g., visual contact and responsivity, multimodal communication, co-construction of meanings, flexible use of space, and sign language instruction for hearing students.

Vulnerability of Deep-sea Hydrothermal Vent Communities to Disturbance: Evidence from Post-eruption Colonization on the East Pacific Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, S. W.; Le Bris, N.; Beaulieu, S.; Sievert, S. M.; Mullineaux, L. S.

2016-02-01

Hydrothermal vents on fast-spreading ridges experience frequent disturbances that exterminate local faunal communities. Vent communities generally are expected to be resilient to natural disturbance, but they may instead undergo a successional path to an alternative state, due to changes in larval supply, vent-fluid chemistry or physical habitat. Furthermore, recolonization after human disturbance, such as mining of mineral deposits, may be quite different. Resilience is important on a larger scale, as it influences diversity and dynamics in the regional metacommunity. In early 2006 a catastrophic eruption paved over most existing communities near 9°50'N on the East Pacific Rise, creating a natural clearance experiment and opportunity to investigate resilience. We had been monitoring recruitment at the site before the eruption, and have continued through 2014. In the first year post-eruption we found significant differences in species composition from pre-eruption communities, most notably the arrival of one limpet species Ctenopelta porifera that had been recorded previously only from 13°N, and the dominance of another, Lepetodrilus tevnianus, that had not been present in years prior to the event. After 2 years, C. porifera numbers had declined precipitously, most likely due to a decrease in vent fluid flux, while L. tevnianus persisted and a diverse suite of additional species started to arrive. Over the next 8 years, changes in species diversity and composition indicated that the community was transitioning toward a state similar to its pre-eruption condition, but key differences remained. These results demonstrate that environment, larval supply and foundation species all influence succession of vent communities on the East Pacific Rise, and that the trajectory and rate of recovery are difficult to predict even after natural disturbance in this well-studied locale.

Variation in habitat connectivity generates positive correlations between species and genetic diversity in a metacommunity.

PubMed

Lamy, T; Jarne, P; Laroche, F; Pointier, J-P; Huth, G; Segard, A; David, P

2013-09-01

An increasing number of studies are simultaneously investigating species diversity (SD) and genetic diversity (GD) in the same systems, looking for 'species- genetic diversity correlations' (SGDCs). From negative to positive SGDCs have been reported, but studies have generally not quantified the processes underlying these correlations. They were also mostly conducted at large biogeographical scales or in recently degraded habitats. Such correlations have not been looked for in natural networks of connected habitat fragments (metacommunities), and the underlying processes remain elusive in most systems. We investigated these issues by studying freshwater snails in a pond network in Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles). We recorded SD and habitat characteristics in 232 ponds and assessed GD in 75 populations of two species. Strongly significant and positive SGDCs were detected in both species. Based on a decomposition of SGDC as a function of variance-covariance of habitat characteristics, we showed that connectivity (opportunity of water flow between a site and the nearest watershed during the rainy season) has the strongest contribution on SGDCs. More connective sites received both more alleles and more species through immigration resulting in both higher GD and higher SD. Other habitat characteristics did not contribute, or contributed negatively, to SGDCs. This is true of the desiccation frequency of ponds during the dry season, presumably because species markedly differ in their ability to tolerate desiccation. Our study shows that variation in environmental characteristics of habitat patches can promote SGDCs at metacommunity scale when the studied species respond homogeneously to these environmental characteristics. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Successional colonization of temporary streams: An experimental approach using aquatic insects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godoy, Bruno Spacek; Queiroz, Luciano Lopes; Lodi, Sara; Nascimento de Jesus, Jhonathan Diego; Oliveira, Leandro Gonçalves

2016-11-01

The metacommunity concept studies the processes that structure communities on local and regional scales. This concept is useful to assess spatial variability. However, temporal patterns (e.g., ecological succession and colonization) are neglected in metacommunity studies, since such patterns require temporally extensive, and hard to execute studies. We used experimental habitats in temporary streams located within the Brazilian Cerrado to evaluate the importance of succession for the aquatic insect metacommunity. Five artificial habitats consisting of wrapped crushed rock were set transversally to the water flow in five streams. The habitats were sampled weekly to assess community composition, and replaced after sampling to identify new potential colonizers. We analyzed the accumulation of new colonizers after each week using a logistic model. We selected pairs of experimental habitats and estimated the Bray-Curtis dissimilarity index to assess the community composition trajectory during the experiment. We used the dissimilarity values in ANOVA tests, identifying the importance of time and space for the community. The number of new taxa stabilized in the third week, and we estimated a weekly increase of 1.61 new taxa in the community after stabilization. The overall pattern was a small change on community composition, but one stream had a higher weekly turnover. Our results showed a relevant influence of time in the initial communities of aquatic insects of temporary streams. However, we must observe the temporal pattern in a spatial context, once different streams have different successional history regarding number of taxa and community turnover. We highlight the importance of aerial dispersal and movement to seek oviposition sites as an important factor in determining colonization patterns.

River networks as ecological corridors: A coherent ecohydrological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinaldo, Andrea; Gatto, Marino; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2018-02-01

This paper draws together several lines of argument to suggest that an ecohydrological framework, i.e. laboratory, field and theoretical approaches focused on hydrologic controls on biota, has contributed substantially to our understanding of the function of river networks as ecological corridors. Such function proves relevant to: the spatial ecology of species; population dynamics and biological invasions; the spread of waterborne disease. As examples, we describe metacommunity predictions of fish diversity patterns in the Mississippi-Missouri basin, geomorphic controls imposed by the fluvial landscape on elevational gradients of species' richness, the zebra mussel invasion of the same Mississippi-Missouri river system, and the spread of proliferative kidney disease in salmonid fish. We conclude that spatial descriptions of ecological processes in the fluvial landscape, constrained by their specific hydrologic and ecological dynamics and by the ecosystem matrix for interactions, i.e. the directional dispersal embedded in fluvial and host/pathogen mobility networks, have already produced a remarkably broad range of significant results. Notable scientific and practical perspectives are thus open, in the authors' view, to future developments in ecohydrologic research.

Metacommunity composition of web-spiders in a fragmented neotropical forest: relative importance of environmental and spatial effects.

PubMed

Baldissera, Ronei; Rodrigues, Everton N L; Hartz, Sandra M

2012-01-01

The distribution of beta diversity is shaped by factors linked to environmental and spatial control. The relative importance of both processes in structuring spider metacommunities has not yet been investigated in the Atlantic Forest. The variance explained by purely environmental, spatially structured environmental, and purely spatial components was compared for a metacommunity of web spiders. The study was carried out in 16 patches of Atlantic Forest in southern Brazil. Field work was done in one landscape mosaic representing a slight gradient of urbanization. Environmental variables encompassed plot- and patch-level measurements and a climatic matrix, while principal coordinates of neighbor matrices (PCNMs) acted as spatial variables. A forward selection procedure was carried out to select environmental and spatial variables influencing web-spider beta diversity. Variation partitioning was used to estimate the contribution of pure environmental and pure spatial effects and their shared influence on beta-diversity patterns, and to estimate the relative importance of selected environmental variables. Three environmental variables (bush density, land use in the surroundings of patches, and shape of patches) and two spatial variables were selected by forward selection procedures. Variation partitioning revealed that 15% of the variation of beta diversity was explained by a combination of environmental and PCNM variables. Most of this variation (12%) corresponded to pure environmental and spatially environmental structure. The data indicated that (1) spatial legacy was not important in explaining the web-spider beta diversity; (2) environmental predictors explained a significant portion of the variation in web-spider composition; (3) one-third of environmental variation was due to a spatial structure that jointly explains variation in species distributions. We were able to detect important factors related to matrix management influencing the web-spider beta-diversity patterns, which are probably linked to historical deforestation events.

Species Sorting of Benthic Invertebrates in a Salinity Gradient - Importance of Dispersal Limitation.

PubMed

Josefson, Alf B

2016-01-01

The relative importance of environment and dispersal related processes for community assembly has attracted great interest over recent decades, but few empirical studies from the marine/estuarine realm have examined the possible effects of these two types of factors in the same system. Importance of these processes was investigated in a hypothetical metacommunity of benthic invertebrates in 16 micro-tidal estuaries connected to the same open sea area. The estuaries differed in size and connectivity to the open sea and represented a salinity gradient across the estuaries. The Elements of Metacommunity Structure (EMS) approach on estuary scale was complemented with a mechanistic variance partitioning approach on sample scale to disentangle effects of factors affecting assembly of three trait groups of species with different dispersivity. A quasi-Clementsian pattern was observed for all three traits, a likely response to some latent gradient. The primary axis in the pattern was most strongly related to gradients in estuary salinity and estuary entrance width and correlation with richness indicated nestedness only in the matrix of the most dispersive trait group. In the variance partitioning approach measures of turnover and nestedness between paired samples each from different estuaries were related to environmental distance in different gradients. Distance between estuaries was unimportant suggesting importance of factors characterizing the estuaries. While the high dispersive species mainly were sorted in the salinity gradient, apparently according to their tolerance ranges towards salinity, the two less dispersive traits were additionally affected by estuary entrance width and possibly also area. The results exemplify a mechanism of community assembly in the marine realm where the niche factor salinity in conjunction with differential dispersal structure invertebrates in a metacommunity of connected estuaries, and support the idea that dispersive species are more controlled by the environment than less dispersive species.

Siblings of patients with Crohn's disease exhibit a biologically relevant dysbiosis in mucosal microbial metacommunities.

PubMed

Hedin, Charlotte; van der Gast, Christopher J; Rogers, Geraint B; Cuthbertson, Leah; McCartney, Sara; Stagg, Andrew J; Lindsay, James O; Whelan, Kevin

2016-06-01

To determine the existence of mucosal dysbiosis in siblings of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) using 454 pyrosequencing and to comprehensively characterise and determine the influence of genotypical and phenotypical factors, on that dysbiosis. Siblings of patients with CD have elevated risk of developing CD and display aspects of disease phenotype, including faecal dysbiosis. Whether the mucosal microbiota is disrupted in these at-risk individuals is unknown. Rectal biopsy DNA was extracted from 21 patients with quiescent CD, 17 of their healthy siblings and 19 unrelated healthy controls. Mucosal microbiota was analysed by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing and were classified into core and rare species. Genotypical risk was determined using Illumina Immuno BeadChip, faecal calprotectin by ELISA and blood T-cell phenotype by flow cytometry. Core microbiota of both patients with CD and healthy siblings was significantly less diverse than controls. Metacommunity profiling (Bray-Curtis (SBC) index) showed the sibling core microbial composition to be more similar to CD (SBC=0.70) than to healthy controls, whereas the sibling rare microbiota was more similar to healthy controls (SBC=0.42). Faecalibacterium prausnitzii contributed most to core metacommunity dissimilarity both between siblings and controls, and between patients and controls. Phenotype/genotype markers of CD risk significantly influenced microbiota variation between and within groups, of which genotype had the largest effect. Individuals with elevated CD-risk display mucosal dysbiosis characterised by reduced diversity of core microbiota and lower abundance of F. prausnitzii. This dysbiosis in healthy people at risk of CD implicates microbiological processes in CD pathogenesis. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Drivers of metacommunity structure diverge for common and rare Amazonian tree species.

PubMed

Bispo, Polyanna da Conceição; Balzter, Heiko; Malhi, Yadvinder; Slik, J W Ferry; Dos Santos, João Roberto; Rennó, Camilo Daleles; Espírito-Santo, Fernando D; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Ximenes, Arimatéa C; Bispo, Pitágoras da Conceição

2017-01-01

We analysed the flora of 46 forest inventory plots (25 m x 100 m) in old growth forests from the Amazonian region to identify the role of environmental (topographic) and spatial variables (obtained using PCNM, Principal Coordinates of Neighbourhood Matrix analysis) for common and rare species. For the analyses, we used multiple partial regression to partition the specific effects of the topographic and spatial variables on the univariate data (standardised richness, total abundance and total biomass) and partial RDA (Redundancy Analysis) to partition these effects on composition (multivariate data) based on incidence, abundance and biomass. The different attributes (richness, abundance, biomass and composition based on incidence, abundance and biomass) used to study this metacommunity responded differently to environmental and spatial processes. Considering standardised richness, total abundance (univariate) and composition based on biomass, the results for common species differed from those obtained for all species. On the other hand, for total biomass (univariate) and for compositions based on incidence and abundance, there was a correspondence between the data obtained for the total community and for common species. Our data also show that in general, environmental and/or spatial components are important to explain the variability in tree communities for total and common species. However, with the exception of the total abundance, the environmental and spatial variables measured were insufficient to explain the attributes of the communities of rare species. These results indicate that predicting the attributes of rare tree species communities based on environmental and spatial variables is a substantial challenge. As the spatial component was relevant for several community attributes, our results demonstrate the importance of using a metacommunities approach when attempting to understand the main ecological processes underlying the diversity of tropical forest communities.

Connectivity, non-random extinction and ecosystem function in experimental metacommunities.

PubMed

Staddon, Philip; Lindo, Zoë; Crittenden, Peter D; Gilbert, Francis; Gonzalez, Andrew

2010-05-01

The spatial insurance hypothesis indicates that connectivity is an important attribute of natural ecosystems that sustains both biodiversity and ecosystem function. We tested the hypothesis by measuring the impact of manipulating connectivity in experimental metacommunties of a natural and diverse microecosystem. Isolation led to the extinction of large-bodied apex predators, subsequently followed by increases in prey species abundance. This trophic cascade was associated with significantly altered carbon and nitrogen fluxes in fragmented treatments. The ecosystem impacts were characteristic of a function debt because they persisted for several generations after the initial loss of connectivity. Local extinctions and disruption of ecosystem processes were mitigated, and even reversed, by the presence of corridors in the connected metacommunities, although these beneficial effects were unexpectedly delayed. We hypothesized that corridors maintained grazer movement between fragments, which enhanced microbial activity, and decomposition in comparison to isolated fragments. Our results indicate that knowledge of habitat connectivity and spatial processes is essential to understand the magnitude and timing of ecosystem perturbation in fragmented landscapes.

Increasing functional modularity with residence time in the co-distribution of native and introduced vascular plants

PubMed Central

Hui, Cang; Richardson, David M.; Pyšek, Petr; Le Roux, Johannes J.; Kučera, Tomáš; Jarošík, Vojtěch

2013-01-01

Species gain membership of regional assemblages by passing through multiple ecological and environmental filters. To capture the potential trajectory of structural changes in regional meta-communities driven by biological invasions, one can categorize species pools into assemblages of different residence times. Older assemblages, having passed through more environmental filters, should become more functionally ordered and structured. Here we calculate the level of compartmentalization (modularity) for three different-aged assemblages (neophytes, introduced after 1500 AD; archaeophytes, introduced before 1500 AD, and natives), including 2,054 species of vascular plants in 302 reserves in central Europe. Older assemblages are more compartmentalized than younger ones, with species composition, phylogenetic structure and habitat characteristics of the modules becoming increasingly distinctive. This sheds light on two mechanisms of how alien species are functionally incorporated into regional species pools: the settling-down hypothesis of diminishing stochasticity with residence time, and the niche-mosaic hypothesis of inlaid neutral modules in regional meta-communities. PMID:24045305

Online discussion groups for bulimia nervosa: an inductive approach to Internet-based communication between patients.

PubMed

Wesemann, Dorette; Grunwald, Martin

2008-09-01

Online discussion forums are often used by people with eating disorders. This study analyses 2,072 threads containing a total of 14,903 postings from an unmoderated German "prorecovery" forum for persons suffering from bulimia nervosa (www.ab-server.de) during the period from October 2004 to May 2006. The threads were inductively analyzed for underlying structural types, and the various types found were then analyzed for differences in temporal and quantitative parameters. Communication in the online discussion forum occurred in three types of thread: (1) problem-oriented threads (78.8% of threads), (2) communication-oriented threads (15.3% of threads), and (3) metacommunication threads (2.6% of threads). Metacommunication threads contained significantly more postings than problem-oriented and communication-oriented threads, and they were viewed significantly more often. Moreover, there are temporal differences between the structural types. Topics relating to active management of the disorder receive great attention in prorecovery forums. (c) 2008 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Differential organization of taxonomic and functional diversity in an urban woody plant metacommunity

Treesearch

Christopher M. Swan; Anna Johnson; David J. Nowak; Alicia Acosta

2016-01-01

Questions: Urban ecosystems present an opportunity to study ecological communities in the context of unprecedented environmental change. In the face of urban land conversion, ecologists observe new patterns of species composition, dominance, behaviour and dispersal.We propose a hypothetical socioeconomic template that describes a gradient...

The Metacommunicative Ideology of Esperanto: Evidence from Japan and Korea.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kimura, Goro Christoph

2003-01-01

Explores whether a particular humanistic ideology is imminent in Esperanto on the basis of evidence drawn from discussions in Esperanto between Japanese and Koreans about reconciliation between their respective countries. Concludes that, while the convictions of the language's initiative are not universally shared among Esperanto speakers, one may…

Evaluating the Simulation of MetacommUnities for Riverine Fishes (SMURF) in the Calapooia Basin, OR

EPA Science Inventory

We describe a modeling approach for simulating assemblages of fish in riverine landscapes. The approach allows a user to determine the grain and extent of river networks within which fish populations reproduce, move, and survive in response to both environmental drivers and assem...

Ecological correlates of population genetic structure: a comparative approach using a vertebrate metacommunity.

PubMed

Manier, Mollie K; Arnold, Stevan J

2006-12-07

Identifying ecological factors associated with population genetic differentiation is important for understanding microevolutionary processes and guiding the management of threatened populations. We identified ecological correlates of several population genetic parameters for three interacting species (two garter snakes and an anuran) that occupy a common landscape. Using multiple regression analysis, we found that species interactions were more important in explaining variation in population genetic parameters than habitat and nearest-neighbour characteristics. Effective population size was best explained by census size, while migration was associated with differences in species abundance. In contrast, genetic distance was poorly explained by the ecological correlates that we tested, but geographical distance was prominent in models for all species. We found substantially different population dynamics for the prey species relative to the two predators, characterized by larger effective sizes, lower gene flow and a state of migration-drift equilibrium. We also identified an escarpment formed by a series of block faults that serves as a barrier to dispersal for the predators. Our results suggest that successful landscape-level management should incorporate genetic and ecological data for all relevant species, because even closely associated species can exhibit very different population genetic dynamics on the same landscape.

The assembly of ecological communities inferred from taxonomic and functional composition

Treesearch

Eric R. Sokol; E.F. Benfield; Lisa K. Belden; H. Maurice. Valett

2011-01-01

Among-site variation in metacommunities (beta diversity) is typically correlated with the distance separating the sites (spatial lag). This distance decay in similarity pattern has been linked to both niche-based and dispersal-based community assembly hypotheses. Here we show that beta diversity patterns in community composition, when supplemented with functional-trait...

Environmental heterogeneity, dispersal mode, and co-occurrence in stream macroinvertebrates

PubMed Central

Heino, Jani

2013-01-01

Both environmental heterogeneity and mode of dispersal may affect species co-occurrence in metacommunities. Aquatic invertebrates were sampled in 20–30 streams in each of three drainage basins, differing considerably in environmental heterogeneity. Each drainage basin was further divided into two equally sized sets of sites, again differing profoundly in environmental heterogeneity. Benthic invertebrate data were divided into three groups of taxa based on overland dispersal modes: passive dispersers with aquatic adults, passive dispersers with terrestrial winged adults, and active dispersers with terrestrial winged adults. The co-occurrence of taxa in each dispersal mode group, drainage basin, and heterogeneity site subset was measured using the C-score and its standardized effect size. The probability of finding high levels of species segregation tended to increase with environmental heterogeneity across the drainage basins. These patterns were, however, contingent on both dispersal mode and drainage basin. It thus appears that environmental heterogeneity and dispersal mode interact in affecting co-occurrence in metacommunities, with passive dispersers with aquatic adults showing random patterns irrespective of environmental heterogeneity, and active dispersers with terrestrial winged adults showing increasing segregation with increasing environmental heterogeneity. PMID:23467653

Spatial storage effect promotes biodiversity during adaptive radiation.

PubMed

Tan, Jiaqi; Rattray, Jennifer B; Yang, Xian; Jiang, Lin

2017-07-12

Many ecological communities are enormously diverse. Variation in environmental conditions over time and space provides opportunities for temporal and spatial storage effects to operate, potentially promoting species coexistence and biodiversity. While several studies have provided empirical evidence supporting the significance of the temporal storage effect for coexistence, empirical tests of the role of the spatial storage effect are rare. In particular, we know little about how the spatial storage effect contributes to biodiversity over evolutionary timescales. Here, we report the first experimental study on the role of the spatial storage effect in the maintenance of biodiversity in evolving metacommunities, using the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 as a laboratory model of adaptive radiation. We found that intercommunity spatial heterogeneity promoted phenotypic diversity of P. fluorescens in the presence of dispersal among local communities, by allowing the spatial storage effect to operate. Mechanistically, greater niche differences among P. fluorescens phenotypes arose in metacommunities with intercommunity spatial heterogeneity, facilitating negative frequency-dependent selection, and thus, the coexistence among P. fluorescens phenotypes. These results highlight the importance of the spatial storage effect for biodiversity over evolutionary timescales. © 2017 The Author(s).

Local and Regional Diversity Reveals Dispersal Limitation and Drift as Drivers for Groundwater Bacterial Communities from a Fractured Granite Formation

PubMed Central

Beaton, E. D.; Stevenson, Bradley S.; King-Sharp, Karen J.; Stamps, Blake W.; Nunn, Heather S.; Stuart, Marilyne

2016-01-01

Microorganisms found in terrestrial subsurface environments make up a large proportion of the Earth’s biomass. Biogeochemical cycles catalyzed by subsurface microbes have the potential to influence the speciation and transport of radionuclides managed in geological repositories. To gain insight on factors that constrain microbial processes within a formation with restricted groundwater flow we performed a meta-community analysis on groundwater collected from multiple discrete fractures underlying the Chalk River Laboratories site (located in Ontario, Canada). Bacterial taxa were numerically dominant in the groundwater. Although these were mainly uncultured, the closest cultivated representatives were from the phenotypically diverse Betaproteobacteria, Deltaproteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Actinobacteria, Nitrospirae, and Firmicutes. Hundreds of taxa were identified but only a few were found in abundance (>1%) across all assemblages. The remainder of the taxa were low abundance. Within an ecological framework of selection, dispersal and drift, the local and regional diversity revealed fewer taxa within each assemblage relative to the meta-community, but the taxa that were present were more related than predicted by chance. The combination of dispersion at one phylogenetic depth and clustering at another phylogenetic depth suggest both niche (dispersion) and filtering (clustering) as drivers of local assembly. Distance decay of similarity reveals apparent biogeography of 1.5 km. Beta diversity revealed greater influence of selection at shallow sampling locations while the influences of dispersal limitation and randomness were greater at deeper sampling locations. Although selection has shaped each assemblage, the spatial scale of groundwater sampling favored detection of neutral processes over selective processes. Dispersal limitation between assemblages combined with local selection means the meta-community is subject to drift, and therefore, likely reflects the differential historical events that have influenced the current bacterial composition. Categorizing the study site into smaller regions of interest of more closely spaced fractures, or of potentially hydraulically connected fractures, might improve the resolution of an analysis to reveal environmental influences that have shaped these bacterial communities. PMID:27999569

Scale-Dependence of Processes Structuring Dung Beetle Metacommunities Using Functional Diversity and Community Deconstruction Approaches

PubMed Central

da Silva, Pedro Giovâni; Hernández, Malva Isabel Medina

2015-01-01

Community structure is driven by mechanisms linked to environmental, spatial and temporal processes, which have been successfully addressed using metacommunity framework. The relative importance of processes shaping community structure can be identified using several different approaches. Two approaches that are increasingly being used are functional diversity and community deconstruction. Functional diversity is measured using various indices that incorporate distinct community attributes. Community deconstruction is a way to disentangle species responses to ecological processes by grouping species with similar traits. We used these two approaches to determine whether they are improvements over traditional measures (e.g., species composition, abundance, biomass) for identification of the main processes driving dung beetle (Scarabaeinae) community structure in a fragmented mainland-island landscape in southern Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We sampled five sites in each of four large forest areas, two on the mainland and two on the island. Sampling was performed in 2012 and 2013. We collected abundance and biomass data from 100 sampling points distributed over 20 sampling sites. We studied environmental, spatial and temporal effects on dung beetle community across three spatial scales, i.e., between sites, between areas and mainland-island. The γ-diversity based on species abundance was mainly attributed to β-diversity as a consequence of the increase in mean α- and β-diversity between areas. Variation partitioning on abundance, biomass and functional diversity showed scale-dependence of processes structuring dung beetle metacommunities. We identified two major groups of responses among 17 functional groups. In general, environmental filters were important at both local and regional scales. Spatial factors were important at the intermediate scale. Our study supports the notion of scale-dependence of environmental, spatial and temporal processes in the distribution and functional organization of Scarabaeinae beetles. We conclude that functional diversity may be used as a complementary approach to traditional measures, and that community deconstruction allows sufficient disentangling of responses of different trait-based groups. PMID:25822150

Local and Regional Diversity Reveals Dispersal Limitation and Drift as Drivers for Groundwater Bacterial Communities from a Fractured Granite Formation.

PubMed

Beaton, E D; Stevenson, Bradley S; King-Sharp, Karen J; Stamps, Blake W; Nunn, Heather S; Stuart, Marilyne

2016-01-01

Microorganisms found in terrestrial subsurface environments make up a large proportion of the Earth's biomass. Biogeochemical cycles catalyzed by subsurface microbes have the potential to influence the speciation and transport of radionuclides managed in geological repositories. To gain insight on factors that constrain microbial processes within a formation with restricted groundwater flow we performed a meta-community analysis on groundwater collected from multiple discrete fractures underlying the Chalk River Laboratories site (located in Ontario, Canada). Bacterial taxa were numerically dominant in the groundwater. Although these were mainly uncultured, the closest cultivated representatives were from the phenotypically diverse Betaproteobacteria, Deltaproteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Actinobacteria, Nitrospirae, and Firmicutes. Hundreds of taxa were identified but only a few were found in abundance (>1%) across all assemblages. The remainder of the taxa were low abundance. Within an ecological framework of selection, dispersal and drift, the local and regional diversity revealed fewer taxa within each assemblage relative to the meta-community, but the taxa that were present were more related than predicted by chance. The combination of dispersion at one phylogenetic depth and clustering at another phylogenetic depth suggest both niche (dispersion) and filtering (clustering) as drivers of local assembly. Distance decay of similarity reveals apparent biogeography of 1.5 km. Beta diversity revealed greater influence of selection at shallow sampling locations while the influences of dispersal limitation and randomness were greater at deeper sampling locations. Although selection has shaped each assemblage, the spatial scale of groundwater sampling favored detection of neutral processes over selective processes. Dispersal limitation between assemblages combined with local selection means the meta-community is subject to drift, and therefore, likely reflects the differential historical events that have influenced the current bacterial composition. Categorizing the study site into smaller regions of interest of more closely spaced fractures, or of potentially hydraulically connected fractures, might improve the resolution of an analysis to reveal environmental influences that have shaped these bacterial communities.

Rapid Diversity Loss of Competing Animal Species in Well-Connected Landscapes

PubMed Central

Schippers, Peter; Hemerik, Lia; Baveco, Johannes M.; Verboom, Jana

2015-01-01

Population viability of a single species, when evaluated with metapopulation based landscape evaluation tools, always increases when the connectivity of the landscape increases. However, when interactions between species are taken into account, results can differ. We explore this issue using a stochastic spatially explicit meta-community model with 21 competing species in five different competitive settings: (1) weak, coexisting competition, (2) neutral competition, (3) strong, excluding competition, (4) hierarchical competition and (5) random species competition. The species compete in randomly generated landscapes with various fragmentation levels. With this model we study species loss over time. Simulation results show that overall diversity, the species richness in the entire landscape, decreases slowly in fragmented landscapes whereas in well-connected landscapes rapid species losses occur. These results are robust with respect to changing competitive settings, species parameters and spatial configurations. They indicate that optimal landscape configuration for species conservation differs between metapopulation approaches, modelling species separately and meta-community approaches allowing species interactions. The mechanism behind this is that species in well-connected landscapes rapidly outcompete each other. Species that become abundant, by chance or by their completive strength, send out large amounts of dispersers that colonize and take over other patches that are occupied by species that are less abundant. This mechanism causes rapid species loss. In fragmented landscapes the colonization rate is lower, and it is difficult for a new species to establish in an already occupied patch. So, here dominant species cannot easily take over patches occupied by other species and higher diversity is maintained for a longer time. These results suggest that fragmented landscapes have benefits for species conservation previously unrecognized by the landscape ecology and policy community. When species interactions are important, landscapes with a low fragmentation level can be better for species conservation than well-connected landscapes. Moreover, our results indicate that metapopulation based landscape evaluation tools may overestimate the value of connectivity and should be replaced by more realistic meta-community based tools. PMID:26218682

Species Sorting of Benthic Invertebrates in a Salinity Gradient – Importance of Dispersal Limitation

PubMed Central

Josefson, Alf B.

2016-01-01

The relative importance of environment and dispersal related processes for community assembly has attracted great interest over recent decades, but few empirical studies from the marine/estuarine realm have examined the possible effects of these two types of factors in the same system. Importance of these processes was investigated in a hypothetical metacommunity of benthic invertebrates in 16 micro-tidal estuaries connected to the same open sea area. The estuaries differed in size and connectivity to the open sea and represented a salinity gradient across the estuaries. The Elements of Metacommunity Structure (EMS) approach on estuary scale was complemented with a mechanistic variance partitioning approach on sample scale to disentangle effects of factors affecting assembly of three trait groups of species with different dispersivity. A quasi-Clementsian pattern was observed for all three traits, a likely response to some latent gradient. The primary axis in the pattern was most strongly related to gradients in estuary salinity and estuary entrance width and correlation with richness indicated nestedness only in the matrix of the most dispersive trait group. In the variance partitioning approach measures of turnover and nestedness between paired samples each from different estuaries were related to environmental distance in different gradients. Distance between estuaries was unimportant suggesting importance of factors characterizing the estuaries. While the high dispersive species mainly were sorted in the salinity gradient, apparently according to their tolerance ranges towards salinity, the two less dispersive traits were additionally affected by estuary entrance width and possibly also area. The results exemplify a mechanism of community assembly in the marine realm where the niche factor salinity in conjunction with differential dispersal structure invertebrates in a metacommunity of connected estuaries, and support the idea that dispersive species are more controlled by the environment than less dispersive species. PMID:28006014

Nectar yeasts: a natural microcosm for ecology.

PubMed

Chappell, Callie R; Fukami, Tadashi

2018-06-01

The species of yeasts that colonize floral nectar can modify the mutualistic relationships between plants and pollinators by changing the chemical properties of nectar. Recent evidence supporting this possibility has led to increased interest among ecologists in studying these fungi as well as the bacteria that interact with them in nectar. Although not fully explored, nectar yeasts also constitute a promising natural microcosm that can be used to facilitate development of general ecological theory. We discuss the methodological and conceptual advantages of using nectar yeasts from this perspective, including simplicity of communities, tractability of dispersal, replicability of community assembly, and the ease with which the mechanisms of species interactions can be studied in complementary experiments conducted in the field and the laboratory. To illustrate the power of nectar yeasts as a study system, we discuss several topics in community ecology, including environmental filtering, priority effects, and metacommunity dynamics. An exciting new direction is to integrate metagenomics and comparative genomics into nectar yeast research to address these fundamental ecological topics. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Taxon-Function Decoupling as an Adaptive Signature of Lake Microbial Metacommunities Under a Chronic Polymetallic Pollution Gradient

PubMed Central

Cheaib, Bachar; Le Boulch, Malo; Mercier, Pierre-Luc; Derome, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Adaptation of microbial communities to anthropogenic stressors can lead to reductions in microbial diversity and disequilibrium of ecosystem services. Such adaptation can change the molecular signatures of communities with differences in taxonomic and functional composition. Understanding the relationship between taxonomic and functional variation remains a critical issue in microbial ecology. Here, we assessed the taxonomic and functional diversity of a lake metacommunity system along a polymetallic pollution gradient caused by 60 years of chronic exposure to acid mine drainage (AMD). Our results highlight three adaptive signatures. First, a signature of taxon—function decoupling was detected in the microbial communities of moderately and highly polluted lakes. Second, parallel shifts in taxonomic composition occurred between polluted and unpolluted lakes. Third, variation in the abundance of functional modules suggested a gradual deterioration of ecosystem services (i.e., photosynthesis) and secondary metabolism in highly polluted lakes. Overall, changes in the abundance of taxa, function, and more importantly the polymetallic resistance genes such as copA, copB, czcA, cadR, cCusA, were correlated with trace metal content (mainly Cadmium) and acidity. Our findings highlight the impact of polymetallic pollution gradient at the lowest trophic levels. PMID:29774016

Dispersal rates affect species composition in metacommunities of Sarracenia purpurea inquilines.

PubMed

Kneitel, Jamie M; Miller, Thomas E

2003-08-01

Dispersal among local communities can have a variety of effects on species composition and diversity at local and regional scales. Local conditions (e.g., resource and predator densities) can have independent effects, as well as interact with dispersal, to alter these patterns. Based on metacommunity models, we predicted that local diversity would show a unimodal relationship with dispersal frequency. We manipulated dispersal frequencies, resource levels, and the presence of predators (mosquito larvae) among communities found in the water-filled leaves of the pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. Diversity and abundance of species of the middle trophic level, protozoa and rotifers, were measured. Increased dispersal frequencies significantly increased regional species richness and protozoan abundance while decreasing the variance among local communities. Dispersal frequency interacted with predation at the local community scale to produce patterns of diversity consistent with the model. When predators were absent, we found a unimodal relationship between dispersal frequency and diversity, and when predators were present, there was a flat relationship. Intermediate dispersal frequencies maintained some species in the inquiline communities by offsetting extinction rates. Local community composition and the degree of connectivity between communities are both important for understanding species diversity patterns at local and regional scales.

Taxon-Function Decoupling as an Adaptive Signature of Lake Microbial Metacommunities Under a Chronic Polymetallic Pollution Gradient.

PubMed

Cheaib, Bachar; Le Boulch, Malo; Mercier, Pierre-Luc; Derome, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Adaptation of microbial communities to anthropogenic stressors can lead to reductions in microbial diversity and disequilibrium of ecosystem services. Such adaptation can change the molecular signatures of communities with differences in taxonomic and functional composition. Understanding the relationship between taxonomic and functional variation remains a critical issue in microbial ecology. Here, we assessed the taxonomic and functional diversity of a lake metacommunity system along a polymetallic pollution gradient caused by 60 years of chronic exposure to acid mine drainage (AMD). Our results highlight three adaptive signatures. First, a signature of taxon-function decoupling was detected in the microbial communities of moderately and highly polluted lakes. Second, parallel shifts in taxonomic composition occurred between polluted and unpolluted lakes. Third, variation in the abundance of functional modules suggested a gradual deterioration of ecosystem services (i.e., photosynthesis) and secondary metabolism in highly polluted lakes. Overall, changes in the abundance of taxa, function, and more importantly the polymetallic resistance genes such as copA, copB, czcA, cadR, cCusA , were correlated with trace metal content (mainly Cadmium) and acidity. Our findings highlight the impact of polymetallic pollution gradient at the lowest trophic levels.

Determining Selection across Heterogeneous Landscapes: A Perturbation-Based Method and Its Application to Modeling Evolution in Space.

PubMed

Wickman, Jonas; Diehl, Sebastian; Blasius, Bernd; Klausmeier, Christopher A; Ryabov, Alexey B; Brännström, Åke

2017-04-01

Spatial structure can decisively influence the way evolutionary processes unfold. To date, several methods have been used to study evolution in spatial systems, including population genetics, quantitative genetics, moment-closure approximations, and individual-based models. Here we extend the study of spatial evolutionary dynamics to eco-evolutionary models based on reaction-diffusion equations and adaptive dynamics. Specifically, we derive expressions for the strength of directional and stabilizing/disruptive selection that apply both in continuous space and to metacommunities with symmetrical dispersal between patches. For directional selection on a quantitative trait, this yields a way to integrate local directional selection across space and determine whether the trait value will increase or decrease. The robustness of this prediction is validated against quantitative genetics. For stabilizing/disruptive selection, we show that spatial heterogeneity always contributes to disruptive selection and hence always promotes evolutionary branching. The expression for directional selection is numerically very efficient and hence lends itself to simulation studies of evolutionary community assembly. We illustrate the application and utility of the expressions for this purpose with two examples of the evolution of resource utilization. Finally, we outline the domain of applicability of reaction-diffusion equations as a modeling framework and discuss their limitations.

Patterns of macromycete community assemblage along an elevation gradient: options for fungal gradient and metacommunity analyse

Treesearch

Marko Gómez-Hernández; Guadalupe Williams-Linera; Roger Guevara; D. Jean Lodge

2012-01-01

Gradient analysis is rarely used in studies of fungal communities. Data on macromycetes from eight sites along an elevation gradient in central Veracruz, Mexico, were used to demonstrate methods for gradient analysis that can be applied to studies of communities of fungi. Selected sites from 100 to 3,500 m altitude represent tropical dry forest, tropical montane cloud...

"Behind the Words": Negotiating Literal/Figurative Sense When Translating the Lyrics to a Children's Song in Bilingual Preschool

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kultti, Anne; Pramling, Niklas

2018-01-01

This study investigates how 6- to 7-year-old children in a bilingual preschool together with their teachers take on the challenge of translating the lyrics to a children's song from Finnish to English. With an interest in how translation activities can engage children in communication and metacommunication, and facilitate the development of…

Sea Star Wasting Disease in the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus in Oregon: Insights into Differential Population Impacts, Recovery, Predation Rate, and Temperature Effects from Long-Term Research.

PubMed

Menge, Bruce A; Cerny-Chipman, Elizabeth B; Johnson, Angela; Sullivan, Jenna; Gravem, Sarah; Chan, Francis

2016-01-01

Sea star wasting disease (SSWD) first appeared in Oregon in April 2014, and by June had spread to most of the coast. Although delayed compared to areas to the north and south, SSWD was initially most intense in north and central Oregon and spread southward. Up to 90% of individuals showed signs of disease from June-August 2014. In rocky intertidal habitats, populations of the dominant sea star Pisaster ochraceus were rapidly depleted, with magnitudes of decline in density among sites ranging from -2x to -9x (59 to 84%) and of biomass from -2.6x to -15.8x (60 to 90%) by September 2014. The frequency of symptomatic individuals declined over winter and persisted at a low rate through the spring and summer 2015 (~5-15%, at most sites) and into fall 2015. Disease expression included six symptoms: initially with twisting arms, then deflation and/or lesions, lost arms, losing grip on substrate, and final disintegration. SSWD was disproportionally higher in orange individuals, and higher in tidepools. Although historically P. ochraceus recruitment has been low, from fall 2014 to spring 2015 an unprecedented surge of sea star recruitment occurred at all sites, ranging from ~7x to 300x greater than in 2014. The loss of adult and juvenile individuals in 2014 led to a dramatic decline in predation rate on mussels compared to the previous two decades. A proximate cause of wasting was likely the "Sea Star associated Densovirus" (SSaDV), but the ultimate factors triggering the epidemic, if any, remain unclear. Although warm temperature has been proposed as a possible trigger, SSWD in Oregon populations increased with cool temperatures. Since P. ochraceus is a keystone predator that can strongly influence the biodiversity and community structure of the intertidal community, major community-level responses to the disease are expected. However, predicting the specific impacts and time course of change across west coast meta-communities is difficult, suggesting the need for detailed coast-wide investigation of the effects of this outbreak.

Sea Star Wasting Disease in the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus in Oregon: Insights into Differential Population Impacts, Recovery, Predation Rate, and Temperature Effects from Long-Term Research

PubMed Central

Menge, Bruce A.; Cerny-Chipman, Elizabeth B.; Johnson, Angela; Sullivan, Jenna; Gravem, Sarah; Chan, Francis

2016-01-01

Sea star wasting disease (SSWD) first appeared in Oregon in April 2014, and by June had spread to most of the coast. Although delayed compared to areas to the north and south, SSWD was initially most intense in north and central Oregon and spread southward. Up to 90% of individuals showed signs of disease from June-August 2014. In rocky intertidal habitats, populations of the dominant sea star Pisaster ochraceus were rapidly depleted, with magnitudes of decline in density among sites ranging from -2x to -9x (59 to 84%) and of biomass from -2.6x to -15.8x (60 to 90%) by September 2014. The frequency of symptomatic individuals declined over winter and persisted at a low rate through the spring and summer 2015 (~5–15%, at most sites) and into fall 2015. Disease expression included six symptoms: initially with twisting arms, then deflation and/or lesions, lost arms, losing grip on substrate, and final disintegration. SSWD was disproportionally higher in orange individuals, and higher in tidepools. Although historically P. ochraceus recruitment has been low, from fall 2014 to spring 2015 an unprecedented surge of sea star recruitment occurred at all sites, ranging from ~7x to 300x greater than in 2014. The loss of adult and juvenile individuals in 2014 led to a dramatic decline in predation rate on mussels compared to the previous two decades. A proximate cause of wasting was likely the “Sea Star associated Densovirus” (SSaDV), but the ultimate factors triggering the epidemic, if any, remain unclear. Although warm temperature has been proposed as a possible trigger, SSWD in Oregon populations increased with cool temperatures. Since P. ochraceus is a keystone predator that can strongly influence the biodiversity and community structure of the intertidal community, major community-level responses to the disease are expected. However, predicting the specific impacts and time course of change across west coast meta-communities is difficult, suggesting the need for detailed coast-wide investigation of the effects of this outbreak. PMID:27144391

Predators modify biogeographic constraints on species distributions in an insect metacommunity.

PubMed

Grainger, Tess Nahanni; Germain, Rachel M; Jones, Natalie T; Gilbert, Benjamin

2017-03-01

Theory describing the positive effects of patch size and connectivity on diversity in fragmented systems has stimulated a large body of empirical work, yet predicting when and how local species interactions mediate these responses remains challenging. We used insects that specialize on milkweed plants as a model metacommunity to investigate how local predation alters the effects of biogeographic constraints on species distributions. Species-specific dispersal ability and susceptibility to predation were used to predict when patch size and connectivity should shape species distributions, and when these should be modified by local predator densities. We surveyed specialist herbivores and their predators in milkweed patches in two matrix types, a forest and an old field. Predator-resistant species showed the predicted direct positive effects of patch size and connectivity on occupancy rates. For predator-susceptible species, predators consistently altered the impact of biogeographic constraints, rather than acting independently. Finally, differences between matrix types in species' responses and overall occupancy rates indicate a potential role of the inter-patch environment in mediating the joint effects of predators and spatial drivers. Together, these results highlight the importance of local top-down pressure in mediating classic biogeographic relationships, and demonstrate how species-specific responses to local and regional constraints can be used to predict these effects. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Complex interaction of dendritic connectivity and hierarchical patch size on biodiversity in river-like landscapes.

PubMed

Carrara, Francesco; Rinaldo, Andrea; Giometto, Andrea; Altermatt, Florian

2014-01-01

Habitat fragmentation and land use changes are causing major biodiversity losses. Connectivity of the landscape or environmental conditions alone can shape biodiversity patterns. In nature, however, local habitat characteristics are often intrinsically linked to a specific connectivity. Such a link is evident in riverine ecosystems, where hierarchical dendritic structures command related scaling on habitat capacity. We experimentally disentangled the effect of local habitat capacity (i.e., the patch size) and dendritic connectivity on biodiversity in aquatic microcosm metacommunities by suitably arranging patch sizes within river-like networks. Overall, more connected communities that occupy a central position in the network exhibited higher species richness, irrespective of patch size arrangement. High regional evenness in community composition was found only in landscapes preserving geomorphological scaling properties of patch sizes. In these landscapes, some of the rarer species sustained regionally more abundant populations better tracking their own niche requirements compared to landscapes with homogeneous patch size or landscapes with spatially uncorrelated patch size. Our analysis suggests that altering the natural link between dendritic connectivity and patch size strongly affects community composition and population persistence at multiple scales. The experimental results are demonstrating a principle that can be tested in theoretical metacommunity models and eventually be projected to real riverine ecosystems.

Ways of providing the patient with a prognosis: a terminology of employed strategies based on qualitative data.

PubMed

Graugaard, Peter Kjær; Rogg, Lotte; Eide, Hilde; Uhlig, Till; Loge, Jon Håvard

2011-04-01

To identify, denote, and structure strategies applied by physicians and patients when communicating information about prognosis. A descriptive qualitative study based on audiotaped physician-patient encounters between 23 haematologists and rheumatologists, and 89 patients in Oslo. Classification of identified prognostic sequences was based on consensus. Physicians seldom initiated communication with patients explicitly to find out their overall preferences for prognostic information (metacommunication). Instead, they used sounding and implicit strategies such as invitations, implicatures, and non-specific information that might result in further disclosure of information if requested by the patients. In order to balance the obligation to promote hope and provide (true) information, they used strategies such as bad news/good news spirals, authentications, safeguardings, and softenings. Identified strategies applied by the patients to adjust the physician-initiated prognostic information to their needs were requests for specification, requests for optimism, and emotional warnings. The study presents an empirically derived terminology so that clinicians and educators involved in medical communication can increase their awareness of prognostic communication. Based on qualitative data obtained from communication excerpts, we suggest that individual clinicians and researchers evaluate the possible benefits of more frequent use of metacommunication and explicit prognostic information. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A neutral theory for interpreting correlations between species and genetic diversity in communities.

PubMed

Laroche, Fabien; Jarne, Philippe; Lamy, Thomas; David, Patrice; Massol, Francois

2015-01-01

Spatial patterns of biological diversity have been extensively studied in ecology and population genetics, because they reflect the forces acting on biodiversity. A growing number of studies have found that genetic (within-species) and species diversity can be correlated in space (the so-called species-gene diversity correlation [SGDC]), which suggests that they are controlled by nonindependent processes. Positive SGDCs are generally assumed to arise from parallel responses of genetic and species diversity to variation in site size and connectivity. However, this argument implicitly assumes a neutral model that has yet to be developed. Here, we build such a model to predict SGDC in a metacommunity. We describe how SGDC emerges from competition within sites and variation in connectivity and carrying capacity among sites. We then introduce the formerly ignored mutation process, which affects genetic but not species diversity. When mutation rate is low, our model confirms that variation in the number of migrants among sites creates positive SGDCs. However, when considering high mutation rates, interactions between mutation, migration, and competition can produce negative SGDCs. Neutral processes thus do not always contribute positively to SGDCs. Our approach provides empirical guidelines for interpreting these novel patterns in natura with respect to evolutionary and ecological forces shaping metacommunities.

Spatial Structures of the Environment and of Dispersal Impact Species Distribution in Competitive Metacommunities

PubMed Central

Ai, Dexiecuo; Gravel, Dominique; Chu, Chengjin; Wang, Gang

2013-01-01

The correspondence between species distribution and the environment depends on species’ ability to track favorable environmental conditions (via dispersal) and to maintain competitive hierarchy against the constant influx of migrants (mass effect) and demographic stochasticity (ecological drift). Here we report a simulation study of the influence of landscape structure on species distribution. We consider lottery competition for space in a spatially heterogeneous environment, where the landscape is represented as a network of localities connected by dispersal. We quantified the contribution of neutrality and species sorting to their spatial distribution. We found that neutrality increases and the strength of species-sorting decreases with the centrality of a community in the landscape when the average dispersal among communities is low, whereas the opposite was found at elevated dispersal. We also found that the strength of species-sorting increases with environmental heterogeneity. Our results illustrate that spatial structure of the environment and of dispersal must be taken into account for understanding species distribution. We stress the importance of spatial geographic structure on the relative importance of niche vs. neutral processes in controlling community dynamics. PMID:23874815

Spatial structures of the environment and of dispersal impact species distribution in competitive metacommunities.

PubMed

Ai, Dexiecuo; Gravel, Dominique; Chu, Chengjin; Wang, Gang

2013-01-01

The correspondence between species distribution and the environment depends on species' ability to track favorable environmental conditions (via dispersal) and to maintain competitive hierarchy against the constant influx of migrants (mass effect) and demographic stochasticity (ecological drift). Here we report a simulation study of the influence of landscape structure on species distribution. We consider lottery competition for space in a spatially heterogeneous environment, where the landscape is represented as a network of localities connected by dispersal. We quantified the contribution of neutrality and species sorting to their spatial distribution. We found that neutrality increases and the strength of species-sorting decreases with the centrality of a community in the landscape when the average dispersal among communities is low, whereas the opposite was found at elevated dispersal. We also found that the strength of species-sorting increases with environmental heterogeneity. Our results illustrate that spatial structure of the environment and of dispersal must be taken into account for understanding species distribution. We stress the importance of spatial geographic structure on the relative importance of niche vs. neutral processes in controlling community dynamics.

Species sorting, apparent neutrality and lasting priority effects: palaeoecological lessons from an inherently dynamic natural ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mergeay, J.; De Meester, L.; Verschuren, D.

2009-04-01

To assess the influence of long-term temporal processes in community assembly, we reconstructed the community changes of two dominant components of freshwater food webs, planktonic Daphnia water fleas and benthic chironomid midge larvae, in a fluctuating tropical lake through eight cycles of major lake-level fluctuation spanning 1800 years. Our results show a highly unpredictable pattern of community assembly in Daphnia, akin to neutrality, but largely dictated by long-lasting priority effects. These priority effects were likely caused by rapid population growth of resident species during lake refilling from a standing stock in a deep crater refuge, thereby pre-empting niche space for new immigrants. Contrastingly, chironomid larvae showed a more classical species sorting response to long-term environmental change, with more limited contribution of stochastic temporal processes. Overall our study emphasizes the importance of temporal processes and niche pre-emption in metacommunity ecology, and suggests a important role for mass effects in time. It also emphasizes the value of paleoecological research to improve understanding of ecological processes in natural ecosystems.

Why Human Papillomavirus Acute Infections Matter

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Most infections by human papillomaviruses (HPVs) are ‘acute’, that is non-persistent. Yet, for HPVs, as for many other oncoviruses, there is a striking gap between our detailed understanding of chronic infections and our limited data on the early stages of infection. Here we argue that studying HPV acute infections is necessary and timely. Focusing on early interactions will help explain why certain infections are cleared while others become chronic or latent. From a molecular perspective, descriptions of immune effectors and pro-inflammatory pathways during the initial stages of infections have the potential to lead to novel treatments or to improved handling algorithms. From a dynamical perspective, adopting concepts from spatial ecology, such as meta-populations or meta-communities, can help explain why HPV acute infections sometimes last for years. Furthermore, cervical cancer screening and vaccines impose novel iatrogenic pressures on HPVs, implying that anticipating any viral evolutionary response remains essential. Finally, hints at the associations between HPV acute infections and fertility deserve further investigation given their high, worldwide prevalence. Overall, understanding asymptomatic and benign infections may be instrumental in reducing HPV virulence. PMID:28994707

Interaction effects of different drivers of wild bee decline and their influence on host-pathogen dynamics.

PubMed

Meeus, Ivan; Pisman, Matti; Smagghe, Guy; Piot, Niels

2018-04-01

Wild bee decline is a multi-factorial problem, yet it is crucial to understand the impact of a single driver. Hereto the interaction effects of wild bee decline with multiple natural and anthropogenic stressors need to be clear. This is also true for the driver 'pathogens', as stressor induced disturbances of natural host-pathogen dynamics can unbalance settled virulence equilibria. Invasive species, bee domestication, habitat loss, climate changes and insecticides are recognized drivers of wild bee decline, but all influence host-pathogen dynamics as well. Many wild bee pathogens have multiple hosts, which relaxes the host-density limitation of virulence evolution. In conclusion, disturbances of bee-pathogen dynamics can be compared to a game of Russian roulette. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Differential endozoochory of aquatic invertebrates by two duck species in shallow lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valls, Luis; Castillo-Escrivà, Andreu; Barrera, Luis; Gómez, Eulalia; Gil-Delgado, José Antonio; Mesquita-Joanes, Francesc; Armengol, Xavier

2017-04-01

Animal vectors are essential for the movement of invertebrate resting eggs between water bodies. However, differences in habitat preferences and feeding behaviour between bird species may result in variations in the dispersal of invertebrates via these birds, even if the different bird species live in the same lake. To test such effects, faecal samples from Anas platyrhynchos (collected in autumn and spring) and Tadorna tadorna (collected in spring) were cultured in water at 20° C and 12 L: 12 D conditions in order to quantify the resting eggs which could be internally transported by these birds. One half of each faecal sample was initially cultured at a conductivity of 0.6 mS cm-1 and the other half at 6 mS cm-1. 1054 invertebrates hatched from a total of 60 faecal samples, including cladocerans, copepods, ostracods, rotifers and ciliates, with a wide variability among faeces. Autumn yielded a low proportion of samples with hatchlings (12.5%) compared to spring (90%). Significant differences were observed between birds, but not between conductivity treatments. Thus, our results imply different hatching dynamics affected by disperser and season, but most species transported as resting eggs by birds seem to have a wide tolerance to hatch under variable salinity conditions. These differences may largery influence the metacommunity dynamics of lake networks, and could be a key factor to consider in wetland conservation planning.

Dialogue-Games: Meta-Communication Structures for Natural Language Interaction

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-01-01

Dialogue- games are only those described here. For example, they are not necessarily competitive , consciously pursued, or zero-sum. 3. THE DIALOGUE- GAME ...fr«. CO / (Mt l / H- James A. Levin James A. Moore ARPA ORDER NO. 2930 NR 134 374 ISI/RR 77-53 January 1977 Dialogue Games : Meta...these patterns. These patterns have been represented by a set of knowledge structures called Dialogue- games , capturing shared conventional Knowledge

The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

PubMed Central

Woodward, Guy; Bonada, Núria; Brown, Lee E.; Death, Russell G.; Durance, Isabelle; Gray, Clare; Hladyz, Sally; Ledger, Mark E.; Milner, Alexander M.; Ormerod, Steve J.; Thompson, Ross M.

2016-01-01

Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world. PMID:27114576

Additive partitioning of testate amoeba species diversity across habitat hierarchy within the pristine southern taiga landscape (Pechora-Ilych Biosphere Reserve, Russia).

PubMed

Tsyganov, Andrey N; Komarov, Alexander A; Mitchell, Edward A D; Shimano, Satoshi; Smirnova, Olga V; Aleynikov, Alexey A; Mazei, Yuri A

2015-02-01

In order to better understand the distribution patterns of terrestrial eukaryotic microbes and the factors governing them, we studied the diversity partitioning of soil testate amoebae across levels of spatially nested habitat hierarchy in the largest European old-growth dark coniferous forest (Pechora-Ilych Biosphere Reserve; Komi Republic, Russia). The variation in testate amoeba species richness and assemblage structure was analysed in 87 samples from six biotopes in six vegetation types using an additive partitioning procedure and principal component analyses. The 80 taxa recorded represent the highest value of species richness for soil testate amoebae reported for taiga soils so far. Our results indicate that testate amoeba assemblages were highly aggregated at all levels and were mostly controlled by environmental factors rather than dispersal processes. The variation in species diversity of testate amoebae increased from the lowest to the highest hierarchical level. We conclude that, similarly to macroscopic organisms, testate amoeba species richness and community structure are primarily controlled by environmental conditions within the landscape and suggest that metacommunity dynamics of free-living microorganisms are driven by species sorting and/or mass effect processes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Sexual selection affects local extinction and turnover in bird communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doherty, P.F.; Sorci, G.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Boulinier, T.

2003-01-01

Predicting extinction risks has become a central goal for conservation and evolutionary biologists interested in population and community dynamics. Several factors have been put forward to explain risks of extinction, including ecological and life history characteristics of individuals. For instance, factors that affect the balance between natality and mortality can have profound effects on population persistence. Sexual selection has been identified as one such factor. Populations under strong sexual selection experience a number of costs ranging from increased predation and parasitism to enhanced sensitivity to environmental and demographic stochasticity. These findings have led to the prediction that local extinction rates should be higher for species/populations with intense sexual selection. We tested this prediction by analyzing the dynamics of natural bird communities at a continental scale over a period of 21 years (1975-1996), using relevant statistical tools. In agreement with the theoretical prediction, we found that sexual selection increased risks of local extinction (dichromatic birds had on average a 23% higher local extinction rate than monochromatic species). However, despite higher local extinction probabilities, the number of dichromatic species did not decrease over the period considered in this study. This pattern was caused by higher local turnover rates of dichromatic species, resulting in relatively stable communities for both groups of species. Our results suggest that these communities function as metacommunities, with frequent local extinctions followed by colonization. Anthropogenic factors impeding dispersal might therefore have a significant impact on the global persistence of sexually selected species.

Natural selection for costly nutrient recycling in simulated microbial metacommunities.

PubMed

Boyle, Richard A; Williams, Hywel T P; Lenton, Timothy M

2012-11-07

Recycling of essential nutrients occurs at scales from microbial communities to global biogeochemical cycles, often in association with ecological interactions in which two or more species utilise each others' metabolic by-products. However, recycling loops may be unstable; sequences of reactions leading to net recycling may be parasitised by side-reactions causing nutrient loss, while some reactions in any closed recycling loop are likely to be costly to participants. Here we examine the stability of nutrient recycling loops in an individual-based ecosystem model based on microbial functional types that differ in their metabolism. A supplied nutrient is utilised by a "source" functional type, generating a secondary nutrient that is subsequently used by two other types-a "mutualist" that regenerates the initial nutrient at a growth rate cost, and a "parasite" that produces a refractory waste product but does not incur any additional cost. The three functional types are distributed across a metacommunity in which separate patches are linked by a stochastic diffusive migration process. Regions of high mutualist abundance feature high levels of nutrient recycling and increased local population density leading to greater export of individuals, allowing the source-mutualist recycling loop to spread across the system. Individual-level selection favouring parasites is balanced by patch-level selection for high productivity, indirectly favouring mutualists due to the synergistic productivity benefits of the recycling loop they support. This suggests that multi-level selection may promote nutrient cycling and thereby help to explain the apparent ubiquity and stability of nutrient recycling in nature.

Classifying Measures of Biological Variation

PubMed Central

Gregorius, Hans-Rolf; Gillet, Elizabeth M.

2015-01-01

Biological variation is commonly measured at two basic levels: variation within individual communities, and the distribution of variation over communities or within a metacommunity. We develop a classification for the measurement of biological variation on both levels: Within communities into the categories of dispersion and diversity, and within metacommunities into the categories of compositional differentiation and partitioning of variation. There are essentially two approaches to characterizing the distribution of trait variation over communities in that individuals with the same trait state or type tend to occur in the same community (describes differentiation tendencies), and individuals with different types tend to occur in different communities (describes apportionment tendencies). Both approaches can be viewed from the dual perspectives of trait variation distributed over communities (CT perspective) and community membership distributed over trait states (TC perspective). This classification covers most of the relevant descriptors (qualified measures) of biological variation, as is demonstrated with the help of major families of descriptors. Moreover, the classification is shown to open ways to develop new descriptors that meet current needs. Yet the classification also reveals the misclassification of some prominent and widely applied descriptors: Dispersion is often misclassified as diversity, particularly in cases where dispersion descriptor allow for the computation of effective numbers; the descriptor GST of population genetics is commonly misclassified as compositional differentiation and confused with partitioning-oriented differentiation, whereas it actually measures partitioning-oriented apportionment; descriptors of β-diversity are ambiguous about the differentiation effects they are supposed to represent and therefore require conceptual reconsideration. PMID:25807558

Effective numbers in the partitioning of biological diversity.

PubMed

Gregorius, Hans-Rolf

2016-11-21

Admissible measures of diversity allow specification of the number of types (species, alleles, etc.) that are "effectively" involved in producing the diversity (the "diversity effective number", also referred to as "true diversity") of a community or population. In metacommunities, effective numbers additionally serve in partitioning the total diversity (symbolized by γ) into one component summarizing the diversity within communities (symbolized by α) and an independent component summarizing the differences between communities (symbolized by β). There is growing consensus that the β-component should be treated in terms of an effective number of "distinct" communities in the metacommunity. Yet, the notion of distinctness is shown in the present paper to remain conceptually ambiguous at least with respect to the diversity within the "distinct" communities. To overcome this ambiguity and to provide the means for designing further desirable effective numbers, a new approach is taken that involves a generalized concept of effective number. The approach relies on first specifying the distributional characteristics of partitioning diversity among communities (among which are differentiation, where the same types tend to occur in the same communities, and apportionment, where different types tend to occur in different communities), then developing the indices which measure these characteristics, and finally inferring the effective numbers from these indices. (1) The β-component reflects apportionment characteristics of metacommunity structure and is quantified by the "apportionment effective number" of communities (number of effectively monomorphic communities). Since differentiation between communities arises only as a side effect of apportionment, the common interpretation of the β-component in terms of differentiation is unwarranted. (2) Multiplicative as well as additive methods of partitioning the total type diversity (γ) involve apportionment effective numbers of communities that are based on different apportionment indices. (3) "Differentiation effective numbers" of communities exist but do not conform with the classical concept of partitioning total type diversity into components within and between communities. (4) Differentiation characteristics are measured as effective numbers of distinct types (rather than communities) from the dual perspective, in which the roles of type and community membership are exchanged. This is relevant e.g. in studies of endemism and competitive exclusion. (5) For Shannon-Wiener diversity, all of the differentiation and apportionment effective numbers are equal, with the exception of those representing additive partitioning. (6) Under either perspective, that is dual or non-dual, measures of compositional differentiation (as originally suggested for the assessment of β-diversity) do not figure in the partitioning of total diversity into components, since they do not build on the intrinsic concept of diversity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.

2016-12-10

It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable secondmore » maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.« less

Why Do the Children (Pretend) Play?

PubMed

Lillard, Angeline S

2017-11-01

Pretend play appears to be an evolved behavior because it is universal and appears on a set schedule. However, no specific functions have been determined for pretend play and empirical tests for its functions in humans are elusive. Yet animal play fighting can serve as an analog, as both activities involve as-if, metacommunicative signaling and symbolism. In the rat and some other animals, adaptive functions of play fighting include assisting social behavior and emotion regulation. Research is presented suggesting that pretend play might serve similar functions for humans. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population ecology of insect invasions and their management

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Patrick C. Tobin

2008-01-01

During the establishment phase of a biological invasion, population dynamics are strongly influenced by Allee effects and stochastic dynamics, both of which may lead to extinction of low-density populations. Allee effects refer to a decline in population growth rate with a decline in abundance and can arise from various mechanisms. Strategies to eradicate newly...

Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

PubMed

Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

2013-10-01

When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

PubMed

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

2015-04-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Challenges, developments and perspectives in intermittent ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Although more than half the world's river networks comprise channels that periodically cease to flow and dry [intermittent rivers (IRs)], river ecology was largely developed from and for perennial systems. Ecological knowledge of IRs is rapidly increasing, so there is a need to synthesise this knowledge and deepen ecological understanding.In this Special Issue, we bring together 13 papers spanning observational case studies, field and laboratory experiments and reviews to guide research and management in this productive field of freshwater science. We summarise new developments in IR ecology, identify research gaps and needs, and address how the study of IRs as highly dynamic ecosystems informs ecological understanding more broadly.This series of articles reveals that contemporary IR ecology is a multifaceted and maturing field of research at the interface between aquatic and terrestrial ecology. This research contributes to fresh water and general ecology by testing concepts across a range of topics, including disturbance ecology, metacommunity ecology and coupled aquatic-terrestrial ecosystems.Drying affects flow continuity through time and flow connectivity across longitudinal, lateral and vertical dimensions of space, which aligns well with the recent emphasis of mainstream ecology on meta-system perspectives. Although most articles here focus on the wet phase, there is growing interest in dry phases, and in the terrestrial vegetation and invertebrate assemb

Understanding how biodiversity unfolds through time under neutral theory.

PubMed

Missa, Olivier; Dytham, Calvin; Morlon, Hélène

2016-04-05

Theoretical predictions for biodiversity patterns are typically derived under the assumption that ecological systems have reached a dynamic equilibrium. Yet, there is increasing evidence that various aspects of ecological systems, including (but not limited to) species richness, are not at equilibrium. Here, we use simulations to analyse how biodiversity patterns unfold through time. In particular, we focus on the relative time required for various biodiversity patterns (macroecological or phylogenetic) to reach equilibrium. We simulate spatially explicit metacommunities according to the Neutral Theory of Biodiversity (NTB) under three modes of speciation, which differ in how evenly a parent species is split between its two daughter species. We find that species richness stabilizes first, followed by species area relationships (SAR) and finally species abundance distributions (SAD). The difference in timing of equilibrium between these different macroecological patterns is the largest when the split of individuals between sibling species at speciation is the most uneven. Phylogenetic patterns of biodiversity take even longer to stabilize (tens to hundreds of times longer than species richness) so that equilibrium predictions from neutral theory for these patterns are unlikely to be relevant. Our results suggest that it may be unwise to assume that biodiversity patterns are at equilibrium and provide a first step in studying how these patterns unfold through time. © 2016 The Author(s).

Understanding how biodiversity unfolds through time under neutral theory

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Theoretical predictions for biodiversity patterns are typically derived under the assumption that ecological systems have reached a dynamic equilibrium. Yet, there is increasing evidence that various aspects of ecological systems, including (but not limited to) species richness, are not at equilibrium. Here, we use simulations to analyse how biodiversity patterns unfold through time. In particular, we focus on the relative time required for various biodiversity patterns (macroecological or phylogenetic) to reach equilibrium. We simulate spatially explicit metacommunities according to the Neutral Theory of Biodiversity (NTB) under three modes of speciation, which differ in how evenly a parent species is split between its two daughter species. We find that species richness stabilizes first, followed by species area relationships (SAR) and finally species abundance distributions (SAD). The difference in timing of equilibrium between these different macroecological patterns is the largest when the split of individuals between sibling species at speciation is the most uneven. Phylogenetic patterns of biodiversity take even longer to stabilize (tens to hundreds of times longer than species richness) so that equilibrium predictions from neutral theory for these patterns are unlikely to be relevant. Our results suggest that it may be unwise to assume that biodiversity patterns are at equilibrium and provide a first step in studying how these patterns unfold through time. PMID:26977066

Resilience and receptivity worked in tandem to sustain a geothermal mat community amidst erratic environmental conditions.

PubMed

Ghosh, Wriddhiman; Roy, Chayan; Roy, Rimi; Nilawe, Pravin; Mukherjee, Ambarish; Haldar, Prabir Kumar; Chauhan, Neeraj Kumar; Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi; Agarwal, Atima; George, Ashish; Pyne, Prosenjit; Mandal, Subhrangshu; Rameez, Moidu Jameela; Bala, Goutam

2015-07-17

To elucidate how geothermal irregularities affect the sustainability of high-temperature microbiomes we studied the synecological dynamics of a geothermal microbial mat community (GMMC) vis-à-vis fluctuations in its environment. Spatiotemporally-discrete editions of a photosynthetic GMMC colonizing the travertine mound of a circum-neutral hot spring cluster served as the model-system. In 2010 a strong geyser atop the mound discharged mineral-rich hot water, which nourished a GMMC continuum from the proximal channels (PC) upto the slope environment (SE) along the mound's western face. In 2011 that geyser extinguished and consequently the erstwhile mats disappeared. Nevertheless, two relatively-weaker vents erupted in the southern slope and their mineral-poor outflow supported a small GMMC patch in the SE. Comparative metagenomics showed that this mat was a relic of the 2010 community, conserved via population dispersal from erstwhile PC as well as SE niches. Subsequently in 2012, as hydrothermal activity augmented in the southern slope, ecological niches widened and the physiologically-heterogeneous components of the 2011 "seed-community" split into PC and SE meta-communities, thereby reclaiming either end of the thermal gradient. Resilience of incumbent populations, and the community's receptiveness towards immigrants, were the key qualities that ensured the GMMC's sustenance amidst habitat degradation and dispersal to discrete environments.

Crustacean communities in coastal ephemeral pools in the Araucanía region (38° S, Chile).

PubMed

De Los Ríos-Escalante, P; Acevedo, P

2016-01-01

The fauna communities of ephemeral pools in southern Chile are characterized by heterogeneity of crustacean taxa; nevertheless, no detailed studies exist of their community structure. The aim of the present study was to analyze the crustacean community structure in two groups of ephemeral pools (Puaucho and Nigue pools) in the coastal zone of the Araucanía region. A correlation matrix was made by species abundance against temperature, conductivity, pH and total dissolved solids. In a second step, a null model for species co-occurrence was applied to the total data and to each group. The results for total data revealed a significant direct relation between the abundance of H. costera, C. dubia and Mesocyclops. For the Puaucho pools, the same results were found together with direct associations with total dissolved solids, conductivity and pH. Finally, different results were found for the Nigue pools, with no clear significant associations, either direct or indirect, between the abundance of different crustacean taxa and abiotic parameters. These results were supported by the co-occurrence null model analysis, which revealed the presence of regulator factors for the total data, and for each of the two groups. Ecological topics are discussed with emphasis on meta-community dynamics.

Dynamic patterns and ecological impacts of declining ocean pH in a high-resolution multi-year dataset.

PubMed

Wootton, J Timothy; Pfister, Catherine A; Forester, James D

2008-12-02

Increasing global concentrations of atmospheric CO(2) are predicted to decrease ocean pH, with potentially severe impacts on marine food webs, but empirical data documenting ocean pH over time are limited. In a high-resolution dataset spanning 8 years, pH at a north-temperate coastal site declined with increasing atmospheric CO(2) levels and varied substantially in response to biological processes and physical conditions that fluctuate over multiple time scales. Applying a method to link environmental change to species dynamics via multispecies Markov chain models reveals strong links between in situ benthic species dynamics and variation in ocean pH, with calcareous species generally performing more poorly than noncalcareous species in years with low pH. The models project the long-term consequences of these dynamic changes, which predict substantial shifts in the species dominating the habitat as a consequence of both direct effects of reduced calcification and indirect effects arising from the web of species interactions. Our results indicate that pH decline is proceeding at a more rapid rate than previously predicted in some areas, and that this decline has ecological consequences for near shore benthic ecosystems.

Combined effects of thinning and decline on fine root dynamics in a Quercus robur L. forest adjoining the Italian Pre-Alps.

PubMed

Mosca, E; Montecchio, L; Barion, G; Dal Cortivo, C; Vamerali, T

2017-05-01

Oak decline is a complex phenomenon, characterized by symptoms of canopy transparency, bark cracks and root biomass reduction. Root health status is one of the first stress indicators, and root turnover is a key process in plant adaptation to unfavourable conditions. In this study, the combined effects of decline and thinning were evaluated on fine root dynamics in an oak forest adjoining the Italian Pre-Alps by comparison of acute declining trees with non-declining trees, both with and without thinning treatment of surrounding trees. Dynamics of volumetric root length density (RLD V ) and tip density (RTD V ), root tip density per unit length of root (RTD L ), diameter, branching index (BI) and mycorrhizal colonization were monitored by soil coring over 2 years as possible descriptors of decline. At the beginning of the experiment, the relationship between canopy transparency and root status was weak, declining trees having slightly lower RLD V (-20 %) and RTD V (-11 %). After a 1 year lag, during which the parameters were almost unaffected, BI and RLD V , together with tip density, tip vitality and mycorrhizal colonization, became the descriptors most representative of both decline class and thinning. Thinning of declining trees increased RLD V (+12 %) and RTD V (+32 %), but reduced tip mycorrhizal colonization and vitality over time compared with non-thinned trees, whereas the opposite occurred in healthy trees, together with a marked decrease in branching. After thinning, there was an initial reduction in the structure of the ectomycorrhizal community, although recovery occurred about 10 months later, regardless of decline severity. Decline causes losses of fine root length, and a moderate recovery can be achieved by thinning, allowing better soil exploration by oak roots. The close correlation between root vitality and mycorrhizal colonization and their deterioration after thinning indicates that decline does not benefit from reduced root competition, excluding the hypothesis of limited water and nutrient availability as a possible cause of the syndrome in this forest. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Combined effects of thinning and decline on fine root dynamics in a Quercus robur L. forest adjoining the Italian Pre-Alps

PubMed Central

Montecchio, L.; Barion, G.; Dal Cortivo, C.; Vamerali, T.

2017-01-01

Abstract Aims Oak decline is a complex phenomenon, characterized by symptoms of canopy transparency, bark cracks and root biomass reduction. Root health status is one of the first stress indicators, and root turnover is a key process in plant adaptation to unfavourable conditions. In this study, the combined effects of decline and thinning were evaluated on fine root dynamics in an oak forest adjoining the Italian Pre-Alps by comparison of acute declining trees with non-declining trees, both with and without thinning treatment of surrounding trees. Methods Dynamics of volumetric root length density (RLDV) and tip density (RTDV), root tip density per unit length of root (RTDL), diameter, branching index (BI) and mycorrhizal colonization were monitored by soil coring over 2 years as possible descriptors of decline. Key Results At the beginning of the experiment, the relationship between canopy transparency and root status was weak, declining trees having slightly lower RLDV (–20 %) and RTDV (–11 %). After a 1 year lag, during which the parameters were almost unaffected, BI and RLDV, together with tip density, tip vitality and mycorrhizal colonization, became the descriptors most representative of both decline class and thinning. Thinning of declining trees increased RLDV (+12 %) and RTDV (+32 %), but reduced tip mycorrhizal colonization and vitality over time compared with non-thinned trees, whereas the opposite occurred in healthy trees, together with a marked decrease in branching. After thinning, there was an initial reduction in the structure of the ectomycorrhizal community, although recovery occurred about 10 months later, regardless of decline severity. Conclusions Decline causes losses of fine root length, and a moderate recovery can be achieved by thinning, allowing better soil exploration by oak roots. The close correlation between root vitality and mycorrhizal colonization and their deterioration after thinning indicates that decline does not benefit from reduced root competition, excluding the hypothesis of limited water and nutrient availability as a possible cause of the syndrome in this forest. PMID:28334145

The Evolution of Primate Communication and Metacommunication

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Abstract Against the prior view that primate communication is based only on signal decoding, comparative evidence suggests that primates are able, no less than humans, to intentionally perform or understand impulsive or habitual communicational actions with a structured evaluative nonconceptual content. These signals convey an affordance‐sensing that immediately motivates conspecifics to act. Although humans have access to a strategic form of propositional communication adapted to teaching and persuasion, they share with nonhuman primates the capacity to communicate in impulsive or habitual ways. They are also similarly able to monitor fluency, informativeness and relevance of messages or signals through nonconceptual cues. PMID:27134332

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2015-01-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Angular Declination and the Dynamic Perception of Egocentric Distance

PubMed Central

Gajewski, Daniel A.; Philbeck, John W.; Wirtz, Philip W.; Chichka, David

2014-01-01

The extraction of the distance between an object and an observer is fast when angular declination is informative, as it is with targets placed on the ground. To what extent does angular declination drive performance when viewing time is limited? Participants judged target distances in a real-world environment with viewing durations ranging from 36–220 ms. An important role for angular declination was supported by experiments showing that the cue provides information about egocentric distance even on the very first glimpse, and that it supports a sensitive response to distance in the absence of other useful cues. Performance was better at 220 ms viewing durations than for briefer glimpses, suggesting that the perception of distance is dynamic even within the time frame of a typical eye fixation. Critically, performance in limited viewing trials was better when preceded by a 15 second preview of the room without a designated target. The results indicate that the perception of distance is powerfully shaped by memory from prior visual experience with the scene. A theoretical framework for the dynamic perception of distance is presented. PMID:24099588

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

Quantifying temporal trends in fisheries abundance using Bayesian dynamic linear models: A case study of riverine Smallmouth Bass populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schall, Megan K.; Blazer, Vicki S.; Lorantas, Robert M.; Smith, Geoffrey; Mullican, John E.; Keplinger, Brandon J.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Detecting temporal changes in fish abundance is an essential component of fisheries management. Because of the need to understand short‐term and nonlinear changes in fish abundance, traditional linear models may not provide adequate information for management decisions. This study highlights the utility of Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) as a tool for quantifying temporal dynamics in fish abundance. To achieve this goal, we quantified temporal trends of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu catch per effort (CPE) from rivers in the mid‐Atlantic states, and we calculated annual probabilities of decline from the posterior distributions of annual rates of change in CPE. We were interested in annual declines because of recent concerns about fish health in portions of the study area. In general, periods of decline were greatest within the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania. The declines in CPE began in the late 1990s—prior to observations of fish health problems—and began to stabilize toward the end of the time series (2011). In contrast, many of the other rivers investigated did not have the same magnitude or duration of decline in CPE. Bayesian DLMs provide information about annual changes in abundance that can inform management and are easily communicated with managers and stakeholders.

The core microbiome bonds the Alpine bog vegetation to a transkingdom metacommunity.

PubMed

Bragina, Anastasia; Berg, Christian; Berg, Gabriele

2015-09-01

Bog ecosystems fulfil important functions in Earth's carbon and water turnover. While plant communities and their keystone species Sphagnum have been well studied, less is known about the microbial communities associated with them. To study our hypothesis that bog plants share an essential core of their microbiome despite their different phylogenetic origins, we analysed four plant community plots with 24 bryophytes, vascular plants and lichen species in two Alpine bogs in Austria by 16S rDNA amplicon sequencing followed by bioinformatic analyses. The overall bog microbiome was classified into 32 microbial phyla, while Proteobacteria (30.8%), Verrucomicrobia (20.3%) and Planctomycetes (15.1%) belonged to the most abundant groups. Interestingly, the archaeal phylum Euryarcheota represented 7.2% of total microbial abundance. However, a high portion of micro-organisms remained unassigned at phylum and class level, respectively. The core microbiome of the bog vegetation contained 177 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) (150 526 seq.) and contributed to 49.5% of the total microbial abundance. Only a minor portion of associated core micro-organisms was host specific for examined plant groups (5.9-11.6%). Using our new approach to analyse plant-microbial communities in an integral framework of ecosystem, vegetation and microbiome, we demonstrated that bog vegetation harboured a core microbiome that is shared between plants and lichens over the whole ecosystem and formed a transkingdom metacommunity. All micro- and macro-organisms are connected to keystone Sphagnum mosses via set of microbial species, for example Burkholderia bryophila which was found associated with a wide spectrum of host plants and is known for a beneficial plant-microbe interaction. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Amae as metalanguage: a critique of Doi's theory of amae.

PubMed

Taketomo, Y

1986-10-01

For many years Doi's ideas on the links between amae and the satisfaction of dependency needs have influenced discussions of the so-called Japanese character. In reviewing Doi's theory, however, major problems emerge. Beginning with the very definition of amae, one finds that Doi has chosen to stress only one aspect of amae. When one returns to his lexical sources, one discovers that the common denominator in the various definitions of amae does not lie in a single, monolithic motivation, as Doi proposes. Instead, it is suggested, amae should be viewed as a metalanguage. To understand the metacommunicational significance of amae, one must consider the rules that govern the behavior of the interactants in amae. Three different situations of amae are delineated. In the childhood interaction, the child playfully mimicks the infant's attachment behavior. With the adult coquetry situation, one observes the female playfully behaving as if she were the child mimicking the infant-mother prototype. Finally, in the third context subset of amae, there is a "trespassing on" or "taking advantage of" another person, with the beneficent approval of the second interactant. The common factor thus appears to be a mutually agreed-upon suspension of certain ordinary restraints on behavior. A metalanguage theory of amae, as an alternative to Doi's proposal, places emphasis on the culture-specific message of the interaction itself rather than on a single, monolithic motivation or an object-language interpretation. Indeed, various motivations are suggested, depending on the specific context of amae as well as the individual case. In this way, it is hoped, a metacommunicational approach to the understanding of amae may broaden the consideration of motivational issues, extending far beyond Doi's insistence on dependency and the search for passive love.

Associations between spontaneous meal initiations and blood glucose dynamics in overweight men in negative energy balance.

PubMed

Kovacs, Eva M R; Westerterp-Plantenga, Margriet S; Saris, Wim H M; Melanson, Kathleen J; Goossens, Ine; Geurten, Peter; Brouns, Fred

2002-01-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate associations between spontaneous meal initiations and blood glucose dynamics in overweight male subjects in negative energy balance. In a randomized crossover design, fifteen overweight male subjects (BMI 28.6 (SD 1.8 kg/m2) participated in three treatments, each of which consisted of 2 weeks consuming a low-energy diet followed by a test of voluntary food ingestion in the absence of time-related cues. The low-energy diet consisted of three daily meals (947 kJ) which were either semi-solid with or without 2.5 g guar gum, or solid, and a dinner of subject's own choice. During the time-blinded test, on the first, second, and third meal initiation subjects ingested a low-energy meal corresponding to that used during the preceding weeks. Changes in blood glucose were monitored on-line. Associations between spontaneous meal initiations and blood glucose dynamics were determined using the chi2 test. No difference was found between treatments in the occurrence of postabsorptive and postprandial declines in blood glucose or in associations between meal initiations and blood glucose dynamics. Postprandial dynamic blood glucose declines were associated with meal initiation (chi2 26 8, P<0.00 1), but postabsorptive and postprandial transient declines were not. In overweight subjects, the usual association between transient declines and spontaneous meal initiation was completely absent in negative energy balance.

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo.

PubMed

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82% of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28%) and subadult males (29%). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82 % of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28 %) and subadult males (29 %). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

Context-dependent colonization dynamics: Regional reward contagion drives local compression in aquatic beetles.

PubMed

Pintar, Matthew R; Resetarits, William J

2017-09-01

Habitat selection by colonizing organisms is an important factor in determining species abundance and community dynamics at multiple spatial scales. Many organisms select habitat patches based on intrinsic patch quality, but patches exist in complex landscapes linked by dispersal and colonization, forming metapopulations and metacommunities. Perceived patch quality can be influenced by neighbouring patches through spatial contagion, wherein perceived quality of one patch can extend beyond its borders and either increase or decrease the colonization of neighbouring patches and localities. These spatially explicit colonization dynamics can result in habitat compression, wherein more colonists occupy a patch or locality than in the absence of spatial context dependence. Previous work on contagion/compression focused primarily on the role of predators in driving colonization patterns. Our goal was to determine whether resource abundance can drive multi-scale colonization dynamics of aquatic beetles through the processes of contagion and compression in naturally colonized experimental pools. We established two levels (high/low quality) of within-patch resource abundances (leaf litter) using an experimental landscape of mesocosms, and assayed colonization by 35 species of aquatic beetles. Patches were arranged in localities (sets of two patches), which consisted of a combination of two patch-level resource levels in a 2 × 2 factorial design, allowing us to assay colonization at both locality and patch levels. We demonstrate that patterns of species abundance and richness of colonizing aquatic beetles are determined by patch quality and context-dependent processes at multiple spatial scales. Localities that consisted of at least one high-quality patch were colonized at equivalent rates that were higher than localities containing only low-quality patches, displaying regional reward contagion. In localities that consisted of one high- and one low-quality patch, reward contagion produced by higher leaf litter levels resulted in greater abundance of beetles in such localities, which then compressed into the highest quality patches. Our results provide further support for the critical roles of habitat selection and spatial context, particularly the quality of neighbouring habitat patches, in generating patterns of species abundances and community structure across landscapes. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Angular declination and the dynamic perception of egocentric distance.

PubMed

Gajewski, Daniel A; Philbeck, John W; Wirtz, Philip W; Chichka, David

2014-02-01

The extraction of the distance between an object and an observer is fast when angular declination is informative, as it is with targets placed on the ground. To what extent does angular declination drive performance when viewing time is limited? Participants judged target distances in a real-world environment with viewing durations ranging from 36-220 ms. An important role for angular declination was supported by experiments showing that the cue provides information about egocentric distance even on the very first glimpse, and that it supports a sensitive response to distance in the absence of other useful cues. Performance was better at 220-ms viewing durations than for briefer glimpses, suggesting that the perception of distance is dynamic even within the time frame of a typical eye fixation. Critically, performance in limited viewing trials was better when preceded by a 15-s preview of the room without a designated target. The results indicate that the perception of distance is powerfully shaped by memory from prior visual experience with the scene. A theoretical framework for the dynamic perception of distance is presented. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Interhost dispersal alters microbiome assembly and can overwhelm host innate immunity in an experimental zebrafish model.

PubMed

Burns, Adam R; Miller, Elizabeth; Agarwal, Meghna; Rolig, Annah S; Milligan-Myhre, Kathryn; Seredick, Steve; Guillemin, Karen; Bohannan, Brendan J M

2017-10-17

The diverse collections of microorganisms associated with humans and other animals, collectively referred to as their "microbiome," are critical for host health, but the mechanisms that govern their assembly are poorly understood. This has made it difficult to identify consistent host factors that explain variation in microbiomes across hosts, despite large-scale sampling efforts. While ecological theory predicts that the movement, or dispersal, of individuals can have profound and predictable consequences on community assembly, its role in the assembly of animal-associated microbiomes remains underexplored. Here, we show that dispersal of microorganisms among hosts can contribute substantially to microbiome variation, and is able to overwhelm the effects of individual host factors, in an experimental test of ecological theory. We manipulated dispersal among wild-type and immune-deficient myd88 knockout zebrafish and observed that interhost dispersal had a large effect on the diversity and composition of intestinal microbiomes. Interhost dispersal was strong enough to overwhelm the effects of host factors, largely eliminating differences between wild-type and immune-deficient hosts, regardless of whether dispersal occurred within or between genotypes, suggesting dispersal can independently alter the ecology of microbiomes. Our observations are consistent with a predictive model that assumes metacommunity dynamics and are likely mediated by dispersal-related microbial traits. These results illustrate the importance of microbial dispersal to animal microbiomes and motivate its integration into the study of host-microbe systems.

Resilience and receptivity worked in tandem to sustain a geothermal mat community amidst erratic environmental conditions

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Wriddhiman; Roy, Chayan; Roy, Rimi; Nilawe, Pravin; Mukherjee, Ambarish; Haldar, Prabir Kumar; Chauhan, Neeraj Kumar; Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi; Agarwal, Atima; George, Ashish; Pyne, Prosenjit; Mandal, Subhrangshu; Rameez, Moidu Jameela; Bala, Goutam

2015-01-01

To elucidate how geothermal irregularities affect the sustainability of high-temperature microbiomes we studied the synecological dynamics of a geothermal microbial mat community (GMMC) vis-à-vis fluctuations in its environment. Spatiotemporally-discrete editions of a photosynthetic GMMC colonizing the travertine mound of a circum-neutral hot spring cluster served as the model-system. In 2010 a strong geyser atop the mound discharged mineral-rich hot water, which nourished a GMMC continuum from the proximal channels (PC) upto the slope environment (SE) along the mound’s western face. In 2011 that geyser extinguished and consequently the erstwhile mats disappeared. Nevertheless, two relatively-weaker vents erupted in the southern slope and their mineral-poor outflow supported a small GMMC patch in the SE. Comparative metagenomics showed that this mat was a relic of the 2010 community, conserved via population dispersal from erstwhile PC as well as SE niches. Subsequently in 2012, as hydrothermal activity augmented in the southern slope, ecological niches widened and the physiologically-heterogeneous components of the 2011 “seed-community” split into PC and SE meta-communities, thereby reclaiming either end of the thermal gradient. Resilience of incumbent populations, and the community’s receptiveness towards immigrants, were the key qualities that ensured the GMMC’s sustenance amidst habitat degradation and dispersal to discrete environments. PMID:26184838

Down deadwood dynamics on a severely impacted oak decline site

Treesearch

Martin A. Spetich

2007-01-01

Following a 3-year drought from 1998 to 2000, oak decline symptoms began to appear throughout many parts of the Ozark Highland region of Arkansas and Missouri. Changes in down deadwood that occurred at one site during the oak decline event are described and discussed. In 2000, 24 deadwood measurement plots 0.2025 ha (45 m by 45 m) in size were established. The down...

Ecological and evolutionary approaches to managing honeybee disease.

PubMed

Brosi, Berry J; Delaplane, Keith S; Boots, Michael; de Roode, Jacobus C

2017-09-01

Honeybee declines are a serious threat to global agricultural security and productivity. Although multiple factors contribute to these declines, parasites are a key driver. Disease problems in honeybees have intensified in recent years, despite increasing attention to addressing them. Here we argue that we must focus on the principles of disease ecology and evolution to understand disease dynamics, assess the severity of disease threats, and control these threats via honeybee management. We cover the ecological context of honeybee disease, including both host and parasite factors driving current transmission dynamics, and then discuss evolutionary dynamics including how beekeeping management practices may drive selection for more virulent parasites. We then outline how ecological and evolutionary principles can guide disease mitigation in honeybees, including several practical management suggestions for addressing short- and long-term disease dynamics and consequences.

Dynamic patterns of overexploitation in fisheries.

PubMed

Perissi, Ilaria; Bardi, Ugo; El Asmar, Toufic; Lavacchi, Alessandro

2017-09-10

Understanding overfishing and regulating fishing quotas is a major global challenge for the 21st Century both in terms of providing food for humankind and to preserve the oceans' ecosystems. However, fishing is a complex economic activity, affected not just by overfishing but also by such factors as pollution, technology, financial factors and more. For this reason, it is often difficult to state with complete certainty that overfishing is the cause of the decline of a fishery. In this study, we developed a simple dynamic model specifically designed to isolate and to study the role of depletion on production. The model is based on the well-known Lotka-Volterra model, or Prey-Predator mechanism, assuming that the fish stock and the fishing industry are coupled variables that dynamically affect each other. In the model, the fishing industry acts as the "predator" and the fish stock as the "prey". If the model can fit historical data, in particular relative to the productive decline of specific fisheries, then we have a strong indication that the decline of the fish stock is driving the decline of the fishery production. The model doesn't pretend to be a general description of the fishing industry in all its varied forms; however, the data reported here show that the model can describe several historical cases of fisheries whose production decreased and collapsed, indicating that the overexploitation of the fish stocks is an important factor in the decline of fisheries.

Changes in forest structure associated with oak decline in severely impacted areas of northern Arkansas

Treesearch

Eric Heitzman; Adrian Grell; Martin Spetich; Dale Starkey

2007-01-01

Four mature northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.)–white oak (Quercus alba L.) stands in the Boston Mountains of northern Arkansas were studied to describe the vegetation dynamics of forests heavily impacted by oak decline. Northern red oak was the species most susceptible to decline. Across the four stands, 51–75% of red oak density...

Pattern of age-associated decline of static and dynamic balance in community-dwelling older women.

PubMed

Takeshima, Nobuo; Islam, Mohammod M; Rogers, Michael E; Koizumi, Daisuke; Tomiyama, Naoki; Narita, Makoto; Rogers, Nicole L

2014-07-01

Falling is the leading cause of injury-related deaths in older adults, and a loss of balance is often the precursor to a fall. However, little is known about the rate at which balance declines with age. The objective of the present study was to determine whether there is an age-associated decline in static (SB) and/or dynamic (DB) balance in community-dwelling older women. SB and DB were determined in 971 older women. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were used to determine test-retest reliability. Sway velocity was used to measure SB standing on a platform and foam with eyes open and closed. DB was characterized by limits of stability (LOS) that measured end-point excursion (EXE) and maximum excursion (MXE) of the body's center of pressure. ICC for EXE and MXE for the LOS test were excellent (EPE = 0.96, MXE = 0.96). ICC for SB tests, except for the eyes open firm surface condition (ICC = 0.10), showed a high level of reproducibility (ICC = 0.88 and 0.90). Relationships existed between age and SB (r = 0.31, P < 0.001), and between age and DB (r = -0.46--0.48, P < 0.001). The rate of decline for both DB and SB was approximately 1% per year. Age was significantly associated with all balance measures. DB got significantly lower with advancing age until 80 years, and then plateaued. SB did not decline with age until 80 years, and then decreased significantly thereafter. Although large individual variation was found with balance ability, an age-related decline was found with both dynamic and static balance for Japanese older women. © 2013 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Ecological and evolutionary approaches to managing honey bee disease

PubMed Central

Brosi, Berry J.; Delaplane, Keith S.; Boots, Michael; de Roode, Jacobus C.

2017-01-01

Honey bee declines are a serious threat to global agricultural security and productivity. While multiple factors contribute to these declines, parasites are a key driver. Disease problems in honey bees have intensified in recent years, despite increasing attention to addressing them. Here we argue that we must focus on the principles of disease ecology and evolution to understand disease dynamics, assess the severity of disease threats, and manage these threats via honey bee management. We cover the ecological context of honey bee disease, including both host and parasite factors driving current transmission dynamics, and then discuss evolutionary dynamics including how beekeeping management practices may drive selection for more virulent parasites. We then outline how ecological and evolutionary principles can guide disease mitigation in honey bees, including several practical management suggestions for addressing short- and long-term disease dynamics and consequences. PMID:29046562

Regeneration dynamics during oak decline with prescribed fire in the Boston Mountains of Arkansas

Treesearch

Martin A. Spetich

2013-01-01

Northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) seedlings were inventoried in 2000 and again in 2005 to better understand survival of advance regeneration during oak decline. In 2000, basal stem diameter was measured and recorded for 861 individually tagged seedlings that were

Local Dynamic Stability Associated with Load Carrying

PubMed Central

Lockhart, Thurmon E

2013-01-01

Objectives Load carrying tasks are recognized as one of the primary occupational factors leading to slip and fall injuries. Nevertheless, the mechanisms associated with load carrying and walking stability remain illusive. The objective of the current study was to apply local dynamic stability measure in walking while carrying a load, and to investigate the possible adaptive gait stability changes. Methods Current study involved 25 young adults in a biomechanics research laboratory. One tri-axial accelerometer was used to measure three-dimensional low back acceleration during continuous treadmill walking. Local dynamic stability was quantified by the maximum Lyapunov exponent (maxLE) from a nonlinear dynamics approach. Results Long term maxLE was found to be significant higher under load condition than no-load condition in all three reference axes, indicating the declined local dynamic stability associated with load carrying. Conclusion Current study confirmed the sensitivity of local dynamic stability measure in load carrying situation. It was concluded that load carrying tasks were associated with declined local dynamic stability, which may result in increased risk of fall accident. This finding has implications in preventing fall accidents associated with occupational load carrying. PMID:23515183

Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds

PubMed Central

Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

2013-01-01

Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems. PMID:24101977

Novel Method of Production Decline Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Shan; Lan, Yifei; He, Lei; Jiao, Yang; Wu, Yong

2018-02-01

ARPS decline curves is the most commonly used in oil and gas field due to its minimal data requirements and ease application. And prediction of production decline which is based on ARPS analysis rely on known decline type. However, when coefficient index are very approximate under different decline type, it is difficult to directly recognize decline trend of matched curves. Due to difficulties above, based on simulation results of multi-factor response experiments, a new dynamic decline prediction model is introduced with using multiple linear regression of influence factors. First of all, according to study of effect factors of production decline, interaction experimental schemes are designed. Based on simulated results, annual decline rate is predicted by decline model. Moreover, the new method is applied in A gas filed of Ordos Basin as example to illustrate reliability. The result commit that the new model can directly predict decline tendency without needing recognize decline style. From arithmetic aspect, it also take advantage of high veracity. Finally, the new method improves the evaluation method of gas well production decline in low permeability gas reservoir, which also provides technical support for further understanding of tight gas field development laws.

Dynamic hub load predicts cognitive decline after resective neurosurgery.

PubMed

Carbo, Ellen W S; Hillebrand, Arjan; van Dellen, Edwin; Tewarie, Prejaas; de Witt Hamer, Philip C; Baayen, Johannes C; Klein, Martin; Geurts, Jeroen J G; Reijneveld, Jaap C; Stam, Cornelis J; Douw, Linda

2017-02-07

Resective neurosurgery carries the risk of postoperative cognitive deterioration. The concept of 'hub (over)load', caused by (over)use of the most important brain regions, has been theoretically postulated in relation to symptomatology and neurological disease course, but lacks experimental confirmation. We investigated functional hub load and postsurgical cognitive deterioration in patients undergoing lesion resection. Patients (n = 28) underwent resting-state magnetoencephalography and neuropsychological assessments preoperatively and 1-year after lesion resection. We calculated stationary hub load score (SHub) indicating to what extent brain regions linked different subsystems; high SHub indicates larger processing pressure on hub regions. Dynamic hub load score (DHub) assessed its variability over time; low values, particularly in combination with high SHub values, indicate increased load, because of consistently high usage of hub regions. Hypothetically, increased SHub and decreased DHub relate to hub overload and thus poorer/deteriorating cognition. Between time points, deteriorating verbal memory performance correlated with decreasing upper alpha DHub. Moreover, preoperatively low DHub values accurately predicted declining verbal memory performance. In summary, dynamic hub load relates to cognitive functioning in patients undergoing lesion resection: postoperative cognitive decline can be tracked and even predicted using dynamic hub load, suggesting it may be used as a prognostic marker for tailored treatment planning.

Ecological consequences of sea-ice decline.

PubMed

Post, Eric; Bhatt, Uma S; Bitz, Cecilia M; Brodie, Jedediah F; Fulton, Tara L; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kerby, Jeffrey; Kutz, Susan J; Stirling, Ian; Walker, Donald A

2013-08-02

After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic sea-ice minima on record, including the historically low minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent developments in the study of ecological responses to sea-ice decline. Sea-ice loss emerges as an important driver of marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics, influencing productivity, species interactions, population mixing, gene flow, and pathogen and disease transmission. Major challenges in the near future include assigning clearer attribution to sea ice as a primary driver of such dynamics, especially in terrestrial systems, and addressing pressures arising from human use of arctic coastal and near-shore areas as sea ice diminishes.

Linkages between large-scale climate patterns and the dynamics of Alaskan caribou populations

Treesearch

Kyle Joly; David R. Klein; David L. Verbyla; T. Scott Rupp; F. Stuart Chapin

2011-01-01

Recent research has linked climate warming to global declines in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus) populations. We hypothesize large-scale climate patterns are a contributing factor explaining why these declines are not universal. To test our hypothesis for such relationships among Alaska caribou herds, we calculated the population growth...

Sudden Oak Death in redwood forests: vegetation dynamics in the wake of tanoak decline

Treesearch

Benjamin Ramage; Kevin O’Hara

2010-01-01

Numerous lines of inquiry have concluded that tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus) will continue to experience drastic population declines and may even disappear entirely from redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forests as a result of the exotic disease sudden oak death (SOD) (Maloney and others 2005, McPherson and others 2005,...

Killer whale nuclear genome and mtDNA reveal widespread population bottleneck during the last glacial maximum.

PubMed

Moura, Andre E; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P J Nico; Worley, Kim C; Gibbs, Richard A; Dahlheim, Marilyn E; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-05-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline.

Species interactions and the effects of climate variability on a wetland amphibian metacommunity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Courtney L.; Miller, David A.W.; Walls, Susan C.; Barichivich, William J.; Riley, Jeffrey W.; Brown, Mary E.

2017-01-01

Disentangling the role that multiple interacting factors have on species responses to shifting climate poses a significant challenge. However, our ability to do so is of utmost importance to predict the effects of climate change on species distributions. We examined how populations of three species of wetland-breeding amphibians, which varied in life history requirements, responded to a six-year period of extremely variable precipitation. This interval was punctuated by both extensive drought and heavy precipitation and flooding, providing a natural experiment to measure community responses to environmental perturbations. We estimated occurrence dynamics using a discrete hidden Markov modeling approach that incorporated information regarding habitat state and predator–prey interactions. This approach allowed us to measure how metapopulation dynamics of each amphibian species was affected by interactions among weather, wetland hydroperiod, and co-occurrence with fish predators. The pig frog, a generalist, proved most resistant to perturbations, with both colonization and persistence being unaffected by seasonal variation in precipitation or co-occurrence with fishes. The ornate chorus frog, an ephemeral wetland specialist, responded positively to periods of drought owing to increased persistence and colonization rates during periods of low-rainfall. Low probabilities of occurrence of the ornate chorus frog in long-duration wetlands were driven by interactions with predators due to low colonization rates when fishes were present. The mole salamander was most sensitive to shifts in water availability. In our study area, this species never occurred in short-duration wetlands and persistence probabilities decreased during periods of drought. At the same time, negative effects occurred with extreme precipitation because flooding facilitated colonization of fishes to isolated wetlands and mole salamanders did not colonize wetlands once fishes were present. We demonstrate that the effects of changes in water availability depend on interactions with predators and wetland type and are influenced by the life history of each of our species. The dynamic species occurrence modeling approach we used offers promise for other systems when the goal is to disentangle the complex interactions that determine species responses to environmental variability.

Physiological condition of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of the population cycle.

PubMed

Nieminen, Petteri; Huitu, Otso; Henttonen, Heikki; Finnilä, Mikko A J; Voutilainen, Liina; Itämies, Juhani; Kärjä, Vesa; Saarela, Seppo; Halonen, Toivo; Aho, Jari; Mustonen, Anne-Mari

2015-09-01

The dynamics of animal populations are greatly influenced by interactions with their natural enemies and food resources. However, quantifying the relative effects of these factors on demographic rates remains a perpetual challenge for animal population ecology. Food scarcity is assumed to limit the growth and to initiate the decline of cyclic herbivore populations, but this has not been verified with physiological health indices. We hypothesized that individuals in declining populations would exhibit signs of malnutrition-induced deterioration of physiological condition. We evaluated the association of body condition with population cycle phase in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of a population cycle. The bank voles had lower body masses, condition indices and absolute masses of particular organs during the decline. Simultaneously, they had lower femoral masses, mineral contents and densities. Hemoglobin and hematocrit values and several parameters known to respond to food deprivation were unaffected by the population phase. There were no signs of lymphopenia, eosinophilia, granulocytosis or monocytosis. Erythrocyte counts were higher and plasma total protein levels and tissue proportions of essential polyunsaturated fatty acids lower in the population decline. Ectoparasite load was lower and adrenal gland masses or catecholamine concentrations did not suggest higher stress levels. Food availability seems to limit the size of voles during the decline but they can adapt to the prevailing conditions without clear deleterious health effects. This highlights the importance of quantifying individual health state when evaluating the effects of complex trophic interactions on the dynamics of wild animal populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

2011-01-01

We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.

Dynamics of Severe and Non-Severe Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Young Children in Israel Following PCV7/PCV13 Introduction.

PubMed

Glikman, Daniel; Dagan, Ron; Barkai, Galia; Averbuch, Diana; Guri, Alex; Givon-Lavi, Noga; Ben-Shimol, Shalom

2018-05-10

The introduction of the pneumococcal conjugated vaccines (PCVs) resulted in a substantial reduction of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) rates. However, impact on non-severe IPD (mostly occult bacteremia) has not yet been fully elucidated.We assessed severe and non-severe IPD (SIPD and NSIPD, respectively) rate dynamics in children <5 years in Israel before and after PCV7/PCV13 implementation. A prospective, population-based, nationwide surveillance. All IPD episodes recorded from 1999 through 2015, were included. NSIPD was defined as IPD episodes without meningitis, pneumonia or mastoiditis in a child with a favorable outcome (not-hospitalized or hospitalized in a non-intensive care unit <5 days, without mortality). Three sub-periods were defined: pre-PCV (1999-2008), PCV7 (2010-2011) and PCV13 (2013-2015). Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated. Overall, 4,457 IPD episodes were identified; 3,398 (76.2%) SIPD, 1,022 (22.9%) NSIPD and 37 (0.8%) unknown. In 90% of NSIPD episodes, no focus was identified.In the PCV7 period, NSIPD rates significantly declined by 52%, while SIPD rates declined less prominently by 24%. Following PCV13 introduction, compared with the PCV7 period, NSIPD rates declined non-significantly by 17% while SIPD rates declined significantly further by an additional 53%. These trends resulted in overall reductions (comparing PCV13 and pre-PCV periods) of NSIPD and SIPD of 60% (IRR=0.4; 0.32-0.51) and 64% (IRR=0.36; 0.32-0.42), respectively. Following PCV7/PCV13 introduction, SIPD and NSIPD rates substantially declined, with differences in rate-dynamics, alluding to differences in serotype distribution between the two groups. Future surveillance is warranted when considering modification in treatment protocols for suspected occult bacteremia/NSIPD cases.

Habitat dynamics, marine reserve status, and the decline and recovery of coral reef fish communities.

PubMed

Williamson, David H; Ceccarelli, Daniela M; Evans, Richard D; Jones, Geoffrey P; Russ, Garry R

2014-02-01

Severe climatic disturbance events often have major impacts on coral reef communities, generating cycles of decline and recovery, and in some extreme cases, community-level phase shifts from coral-to algal-dominated states. Benthic habitat changes directly affect reef fish communities, with low coral cover usually associated with low fish diversity and abundance. No-take marine reserves (NTRs) are widely advocated for conserving biodiversity and enhancing the sustainability of exploited fish populations. Numerous studies have documented positive ecological and socio-economic benefits of NTRs; however, the ability of NTRs to ameliorate the effects of acute disturbances on coral reefs has seldom been investigated. Here, we test these factors by tracking the dynamics of benthic and fish communities, including the important fishery species, coral trout (Plectropomus spp.), over 8 years in both NTRs and fished areas in the Keppel Island group, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Two major disturbances impacted the reefs during the monitoring period, a coral bleaching event in 2006 and a freshwater flood plume in 2011. Both disturbances generated significant declines in coral cover and habitat complexity, with subsequent declines in fish abundance and diversity, and pronounced shifts in fish assemblage structure. Coral trout density also declined in response to the loss of live coral, however, the approximately 2:1 density ratio between NTRs and fished zones was maintained over time. The only post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks were within the NTRs that escaped the worst effects of the disturbances. Although NTRs had little discernible effect on the temporal dynamics of benthic or fish communities, it was evident that the post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks within some NTRs may be critically important to regional-scale population persistence and recovery.

Habitat dynamics, marine reserve status, and the decline and recovery of coral reef fish communities

PubMed Central

Williamson, David H; Ceccarelli, Daniela M; Evans, Richard D; Jones, Geoffrey P; Russ, Garry R

2014-01-01

Severe climatic disturbance events often have major impacts on coral reef communities, generating cycles of decline and recovery, and in some extreme cases, community-level phase shifts from coral-to algal-dominated states. Benthic habitat changes directly affect reef fish communities, with low coral cover usually associated with low fish diversity and abundance. No-take marine reserves (NTRs) are widely advocated for conserving biodiversity and enhancing the sustainability of exploited fish populations. Numerous studies have documented positive ecological and socio-economic benefits of NTRs; however, the ability of NTRs to ameliorate the effects of acute disturbances on coral reefs has seldom been investigated. Here, we test these factors by tracking the dynamics of benthic and fish communities, including the important fishery species, coral trout (Plectropomus spp.), over 8 years in both NTRs and fished areas in the Keppel Island group, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Two major disturbances impacted the reefs during the monitoring period, a coral bleaching event in 2006 and a freshwater flood plume in 2011. Both disturbances generated significant declines in coral cover and habitat complexity, with subsequent declines in fish abundance and diversity, and pronounced shifts in fish assemblage structure. Coral trout density also declined in response to the loss of live coral, however, the approximately 2:1 density ratio between NTRs and fished zones was maintained over time. The only post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks were within the NTRs that escaped the worst effects of the disturbances. Although NTRs had little discernible effect on the temporal dynamics of benthic or fish communities, it was evident that the post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks within some NTRs may be critically important to regional-scale population persistence and recovery. PMID:24634720

Dynamics of particulate and dissolved organic and inorganic phosphorus during the peak and declining phase of an iron-induced phytoplankton bloom in the eastern subarctic Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimura, Takeshi; Nishioka, Jun; Ogawa, Hiroshi; Tsuda, Atsushi

2018-01-01

Phosphorus (P) is an essential element for all organisms and thus the P cycle plays a key role in determining the dynamics of lower trophic levels in marine ecosystems. P in seawater occurs conceptually in particulate and dissolved organic and inorganic (POP, PIP, DOP, and DIP, respectively) pools and clarification of the dynamics in these P pools is the basis to assess the biogeochemical cycle of P. Despite its importance, behaviors of each P pool with phytoplankton dynamics have not been fully examined. We measured the four operationally defined P pools (POPop, PIPop, DOPop, and SRP) during an iron-induced phytoplankton bloom (as part of the subarctic ecosystem response to iron enrichment study (SERIES)) in the eastern subarctic Pacific in summer 2002. During our observations of the iron-enriched patch from day 15 to day 26 after the iron infusion, chlorophyll-a concentration in the surface layer decreased from 6.3 to 1.2 μg L- 1, indicating the peak through decline phase of the phytoplankton bloom. At the bloom peak, P was partitioned into POPop, PIPop, and DOPop in proportions of 60, 27, and 13%, respectively. While chlorophyll-a and POPop showed similar temporal variations during the declining phase, PIPop showed a different peak timing with a 2 day delay compared to POPop, resulting in a rapid change in the relative proportion of PIPop to total particulate P (TPP = POPop + PIPop) at the peak (25%) and during the declining phase of the bloom (50%). A part of POPop was replaced by PIPop just after slowing down of phytoplankton growth. This process may have a significant role in the subsequent regeneration of P. We conclude that measurement of TPP alone is insufficient to show the interaction between P and phytoplankton dynamics and fractionation of TPP into POPop and PIPop provides useful insights to clarify the biogeochemical cycle of P.

Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

PubMed

Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

Steeper declines in forest photosynthesis than respiration explain age-driven decreases in forest growth.

PubMed

Tang, Jianwu; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Richardson, Andrew D; Kutsch, Werner; Janssens, Ivan A

2014-06-17

The traditional view of forest dynamics originated by Kira and Shidei [Kira T, Shidei T (1967) Jap J Ecol 17:70-87] and Odum [Odum EP (1969) Science 164(3877):262-270] suggests a decline in net primary productivity (NPP) in aging forests due to stabilized gross primary productivity (GPP) and continuously increased autotrophic respiration (Ra). The validity of these trends in GPP and Ra is, however, very difficult to test because of the lack of long-term ecosystem-scale field observations of both GPP and Ra. Ryan and colleagues [Ryan MG, Binkley D, Fownes JH (1997) Ad Ecol Res 27:213-262] have proposed an alternative hypothesis drawn from site-specific results that aboveground respiration and belowground allocation decreased in aging forests. Here, we analyzed data from a recently assembled global database of carbon fluxes and show that the classical view of the mechanisms underlying the age-driven decline in forest NPP is incorrect and thus support Ryan's alternative hypothesis. Our results substantiate the age-driven decline in NPP, but in contrast to the traditional view, both GPP and Ra decline in aging boreal and temperate forests. We find that the decline in NPP in aging forests is primarily driven by GPP, which decreases more rapidly with increasing age than Ra does, but the ratio of NPP/GPP remains approximately constant within a biome. Our analytical models describing forest succession suggest that dynamic forest ecosystem models that follow the traditional paradigm need to be revisited.

Reconstructing the competitive dynamics of mixed-oak neighborhoods

Treesearch

Eric K. Zenner; Daniel J. Heggenstaller; Patrick H. Brose; JeriLynn E. Peck; Kim C. Steiner

2012-01-01

The disparity between the potential for latent oak dominance within a stand and their region-wide decline in importance value raises questions about the competitiveness of oaks in early stand dynamics. We reconstructed tree height growth dynamics in mixed-species neighborhoods to determine if currently dominant oaks were ever shorter than their competitors and at what...

Modeling Forest Structure and Vascular Plant Diversity in Piedmont Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakkenberg, C.

2014-12-01

When the interacting stressors of climate change and land cover/land use change (LCLUC) overwhelm ecosystem resilience to environmental and climatic variability, forest ecosystems are at increased risk of regime shifts and hyperdynamism in process rates. To meet the growing range of novel biotic and environmental stressors on human-impacted ecosystems, the maintenance of taxonomic diversity and functional redundancy in metacommunities has been proposed as a risk spreading measure ensuring that species critical to landscape ecosystem functioning are available for recruitment as local systems respond to novel conditions. This research is the first in a multi-part study to establish a dynamic, predictive model of the spatio-temporal dynamics of vascular plant diversity in North Carolina Piedmont mixed forests using remotely sensed data inputs. While remote sensing technologies are optimally suited to monitor LCLUC over large areas, direct approaches to the remote measurement of plant diversity remain a challenge. This study tests the efficacy of predicting indices of vascular plant diversity using remotely derived measures of forest structural heterogeneity from aerial LiDAR and high spatial resolution broadband optical imagery in addition to derived topo-environmental variables. Diversity distribution modelling of this sort is predicated upon the idea that environmental filtering of dispersing species help define fine-scale (permeable) environmental envelopes within which biotic structural and compositional factors drive competitive interactions that, in addition to background stochasticity, determine fine-scale alpha diversity. Results reveal that over a range of Piedmont forest communities, increasing structural complexity is positively correlated with measures of plant diversity, though the nature of this relationship varies by environmental conditions and community type. The diversity distribution model is parameterized and cross-validated using three high quality vegetation survey datasets, including Duke Forest Korstian permanent plots, Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA), and the scale transgressive, nested module Carolina Vegetation Survey (CVS).

The response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire in California to future climate scenarios simulated by the MC1 dynamic vegetation dynamic.

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Raymond Drapek; Ronald P. Neilson

2006-01-01

The objective of this study was to dynamically simulate the response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change for California using the MAPSS-CENTURY (MCI) dynamic general vegetation model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined with increased growing season length and warmth, and increases in...

Decline of Tumor Vascular Function as Assessed by Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging Is Associated With Poor Responses to Radiation Therapy and Chemotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Fang-Hsin; Wang, Chun-Chieh; Radiation Biology Research Center, Institute for Radiological Research, Chang Gung University/Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Linkou, Taoyuan, Taiwan

Purpose: To investigate whether changes in the volume transfer coefficient (K{sup trans}) in a growing tumor could be used as a surrogate marker for predicting tumor responses to radiation therapy (RT) and chemotherapy (CT). Methods and Materials: Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) was consecutively performed on tumor-bearing mice, and temporal and spatial changes of K{sup trans} values were measured along with tumor growth. Tumor responses to RT and CT were studied before and after observed changes in K{sup trans} values with time. Results: Dynamic changes with an initial increase and subsequent decline in K{sup trans} values were found tomore » be associated with tumor growth. When each tumor was divided into core and peripheral regions, the K{sup trans} decline was greater in core, although neither vascular structure or necrosis could be linked to this spatial difference. Tumor responses to RT were worse if applied after the decline of K{sup trans}, and there was less drug distribution and cell death in the tumor core after CT. Conclusion: The K{sup trans} value in growing tumors, reflecting the changes of tumor microenvironment and vascular function, is strongly associated with tumor responses to RT and CT and could be a potential surrogate marker for predicting the tumor response to these treatments.« less

Fibrillar amyloid correlates of preclinical cognitive decline.

PubMed

Stonnington, Cynthia M; Chen, Kewei; Lee, Wendy; Locke, Dona E C; Dueck, Amylou C; Liu, Xiaofen; Roontiva, Auttawut; Fleisher, Adam S; Caselli, Richard J; Reiman, Eric M

2014-01-01

It is not known whether preclinical cognitive decline is associated with fibrillar β-amyloid (Aβ) deposition irrespective of apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 status. From a prospective observational study of 623 cognitively normal individuals, we identified all subjects who showed preclinical decline of at least 2 standard deviations beyond the decline of the entire group in memory or executive function. Fourteen decliners were matched by APOE ε4 gene dose, age, sex, and education with 14 nondecliners. Dynamic Pittsburgh compound B (PiB) positron emission tomography (PET) scans, the Logan method, statistical parametric mapping, and automatically labeled regions of interest were used to characterize and compare cerebral-to-cerebellar PiB distribution volume ratios (DVRs), reflecting fibrillar Aβ burden. At P < .005 (uncorrected), decliners had significantly greater DVRs in comparison to nondecliners. Asymptomatic longitudinal neuropsychological decline is associated with subsequent increased fibrillar amyloid deposition, even when controlling for APOE ε4 genotype. Copyright © 2014 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extreme heat changes post-heat wave community reassembly

PubMed Central

Seifert, Linda I; Weithoff, Guntram; Vos, Matthijs

2015-01-01

Climate forecasts project further increases in extremely high-temperature events. These present threats to biodiversity, as they promote population declines and local species extinctions. This implies that ecological communities will need to rely more strongly on recovery processes, such as recolonization from a meta-community context. It is poorly understood how differences in extreme event intensity change the outcome of subsequent community reassembly and if such extremes modify the biotic environment in ways that would prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. We studied replicated aquatic communities consisting of algae and herbivorous rotifers in a design that involved a control and two different heat wave intensity treatments (29°C and 39°C). Animal species that suffered heat-induced extinction were subsequently re-introduced at the same time and density, in each of the two treatments. The 39°C treatment led to community closure in all replicates, meaning that a previously successful herbivore species could not re-establish itself in the postheat wave community. In contrast, such closure never occurred after a 29°C event. Heat wave intensity determined the number of herbivore extinctions and strongly affected algal relative abundances. Re-introduced herbivore species were thus confronted with significantly different food environments. This ecological legacy generated by heat wave intensity led to differences in the failure or success of herbivore species re-introductions. Reassembly was significantly more variable, and hence less predictable, after an extreme heat wave, and was more canalized after a moderate one. Our results pertain to relatively simple communities, but they suggest that ecological legacies introduced by extremely high-temperature events may change subsequent ecological recovery and even prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. Knowing the processes promoting and preventing ecological recovery is crucial to the success of species re-introduction programs and to our ability to restore ecosystems damaged by environmental extremes. PMID:26078851

A comparison of forest dynamics at two sites in the Southeastern Ozark Mountains of Missouri

Treesearch

Michael A. Jenkins; Stephen G. Pallardy

1993-01-01

Changes in tree species composition and regeneration patterns were studied in 53 permanent vegetation plots located at two sites (Pioneer Forest and University State Forest) in oak-hickory forests of southeastern Missouri where mortality and decline of red oak species have been identified. The two sites also exhibited differing levels of decline and mortality. Between...

Development, succession, and stand dynamics of upland oak forests in the Wisconsin Driftless Area: Implications for oak regeneration and management

Treesearch

Megan L. Buchanan; Kurt F. Kipfmueller; Anthony W. D' Amato

2017-01-01

Throughout the deciduous forests of the eastern United States, oak (Quercus) regeneration has declined in stands historically dominated by oak species. In the Wisconsin Driftless Area, the level of decline in oak regeneration is variable and influenced by stand structural development, historical disturbance regime, abiotic site characteristics, and...

Nonstructural leaf carbohydrate dynamics of Pinus edulis during drought-induced tree mortality reveal role for carbon metabolism in mortality mechanism.

PubMed

Adams, Henry D; Germino, Matthew J; Breshears, David D; Barron-Gafford, Greg A; Guardiola-Claramonte, Maite; Zou, Chris B; Huxman, Travis E

2013-03-01

Vegetation change is expected with global climate change, potentially altering ecosystem function and climate feedbacks. However, causes of plant mortality, which are central to vegetation change, are understudied, and physiological mechanisms remain unclear, particularly the roles of carbon metabolism and xylem function. We report analysis of foliar nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) and associated physiology from a previous experiment where earlier drought-induced mortality of Pinus edulis at elevated temperatures was associated with greater cumulative respiration. Here, we predicted faster NSC decline for warmed trees than for ambient-temperature trees. Foliar NSC in droughted trees declined by 30% through mortality and was lower than in watered controls. NSC decline resulted primarily from decreased sugar concentrations. Starch initially declined, and then increased above pre-drought concentrations before mortality. Although temperature did not affect NSC and sugar, starch concentrations ceased declining and increased earlier with higher temperatures. Reduced foliar NSC during lethal drought indicates a carbon metabolism role in mortality mechanism. Although carbohydrates were not completely exhausted at mortality, temperature differences in starch accumulation timing suggest that carbon metabolism changes are associated with time to death. Drought mortality appears to be related to temperature-dependent carbon dynamics concurrent with increasing hydraulic stress in P. edulis and potentially other similar species. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Killer Whale Nuclear Genome and mtDNA Reveal Widespread Population Bottleneck during the Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Moura, Andre E.; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B.; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P.J. Nico; Worley, Kim C.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Dahlheim, Marilyn E.; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-01-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline. PMID:24497033

Population and geographic range dynamics: implications for conservation planning

PubMed Central

Mace, Georgina M.; Collen, Ben; Fuller, Richard A.; Boakes, Elizabeth H.

2010-01-01

Continuing downward trends in the population sizes of many species, in the conservation status of threatened species, and in the quality, extent and connectedness of habitats are of increasing concern. Identifying the attributes of declining populations will help predict how biodiversity will be impacted and guide conservation actions. However, the drivers of biodiversity declines have changed over time and average trends in abundance or distributional change hide significant variation among species. While some populations are declining rapidly, the majority remain relatively stable and others are increasing. Here we dissect out some of the changing drivers of population and geographic range change, and identify biological and geographical correlates of winners and losers in two large datasets covering local population sizes of vertebrates since 1970 and the distributions of Galliform birds over the last two centuries. We find weak evidence for ecological and biological traits being predictors of local decline in range or abundance, but stronger evidence for the role of local anthropogenic threats and environmental change. An improved understanding of the dynamics of threat processes and how they may affect different species will help to guide better conservation planning in a continuously changing world. PMID:20980321

Seasonal differences in extinction and colonization drive occupancy dynamics of an imperilled amphibian.

PubMed

Randall, Lea A; Smith, Des H V; Jones, Breana L; Prescott, David R C; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2015-01-01

A detailed understanding of the population dynamics of many amphibian species is lacking despite concerns about declining amphibian biodiversity and abundance. This paper explores temporal patterns of occupancy and underlying extinction and colonization dynamics in a regionally imperiled amphibian species, the Northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) in Alberta. Our study contributes to elucidating regional occupancy dynamics at northern latitudes, where climate extremes likely have a profound effect on seasonal occupancy. The primary advantage of our study is its wide geographic scale (60,000 km2) and the use of repeat visual surveys each spring and summer from 2009-2013. We find that occupancy varied more dramatically between seasons than years, with low spring and higher summer occupancy. Between spring and summer, colonization was high and extinction low; inversely, colonization was low and extinction high over the winter. The dynamics of extinction and colonization are complex, making conservation management challenging. Our results reveal that Northern leopard frog occupancy was constant over the last five years and thus there is no evidence of decline or recovery within our study area. Changes to equilibrium occupancy are most sensitive to increasing colonization in the spring or declining extinction in the summer. Therefore, conservation and management efforts should target actions that are likely to increase spring colonization; this could be achieved through translocations or improving the quality or access to breeding habitat. Because summer occupancy is already high, it may be difficult to improve further. Nevertheless, summer extinction could be reduced by predator control, increasing water quality or hydroperiod of wetlands, or increasing the quality or quantity of summer habitat.

Community-level education accelerates the cultural evolution of fertility decline.

PubMed

Colleran, Heidi; Jasienska, Grazyna; Nenko, Ilona; Galbarczyk, Andrzej; Mace, Ruth

2014-03-22

Explaining why fertility declines as populations modernize is a profound theoretical challenge. It remains unclear whether the fundamental drivers are economic or cultural in nature. Cultural evolutionary theory suggests that community-level characteristics, for example average education, can alter how low-fertility preferences are transmitted and adopted. These assumptions have not been empirically tested. Here, we show that community-level education accelerates fertility decline in a way that is neither predicted by individual characteristics, nor by the level of economic modernization in a population. In 22 high-fertility communities in Poland, fertility converged on a smaller family size as average education in the community increased-indeed community-level education had a larger impact on fertility decline than did individual education. This convergence was not driven by educational levels being more homogeneous, but by less educated women having fewer children than expected, and more highly educated social networks, when living among more highly educated neighbours. The average level of education in a community may influence the social partners women interact with, both within and beyond their immediate social environments, altering the reproductive norms they are exposed to. Given a critical mass of highly educated women, less educated neighbours may adopt their reproductive behaviour, accelerating the pace of demographic transition. Individual characteristics alone cannot capture these dynamics and studies relying solely on them may systematically underestimate the importance of cultural transmission in driving fertility declines. Our results are inconsistent with a purely individualistic, rational-actor model of fertility decline and suggest that optimization of reproduction is partly driven by cultural dynamics beyond the individual.

Community-level education accelerates the cultural evolution of fertility decline

PubMed Central

Colleran, Heidi; Jasienska, Grazyna; Nenko, Ilona; Galbarczyk, Andrzej; Mace, Ruth

2014-01-01

Explaining why fertility declines as populations modernize is a profound theoretical challenge. It remains unclear whether the fundamental drivers are economic or cultural in nature. Cultural evolutionary theory suggests that community-level characteristics, for example average education, can alter how low-fertility preferences are transmitted and adopted. These assumptions have not been empirically tested. Here, we show that community-level education accelerates fertility decline in a way that is neither predicted by individual characteristics, nor by the level of economic modernization in a population. In 22 high-fertility communities in Poland, fertility converged on a smaller family size as average education in the community increased—indeed community-level education had a larger impact on fertility decline than did individual education. This convergence was not driven by educational levels being more homogeneous, but by less educated women having fewer children than expected, and more highly educated social networks, when living among more highly educated neighbours. The average level of education in a community may influence the social partners women interact with, both within and beyond their immediate social environments, altering the reproductive norms they are exposed to. Given a critical mass of highly educated women, less educated neighbours may adopt their reproductive behaviour, accelerating the pace of demographic transition. Individual characteristics alone cannot capture these dynamics and studies relying solely on them may systematically underestimate the importance of cultural transmission in driving fertility declines. Our results are inconsistent with a purely individualistic, rational-actor model of fertility decline and suggest that optimization of reproduction is partly driven by cultural dynamics beyond the individual. PMID:24500166

Declining fertility and economic well-being: do education and health ride to the rescue?

PubMed Central

Prettner, Klaus; Bloom, David E.; Strulik, Holger

2015-01-01

It is widely argued that declining fertility slows the pace of economic growth in industrialized countries through its negative effect on labor supply. There are, however, theoretical arguments suggesting that the effect of falling fertility on effective labor supply can be offset by associated behavioral changes. We formalize these arguments by setting forth a dynamic consumer optimization model that incorporates endogenous fertility as well as endogenous education and health investments. The model shows that a fertility decline induces higher education and health investments that are able to compensate for declining fertility under certain circumstances. We assess the theoretical implications by investigating panel data for 118 countries over the period 1980 to 2005 and show that behavioral changes partly mitigate the negative impact of declining fertility on effective labor supply. PMID:26388677

Bighorn sheep habitat studies, population dynamics, and population modeling in Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area, Wyoming and Montana, 2000-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, Francis J.; Schoenecker, Kathryn A.

2004-01-01

The bighorn sheep population of the greater Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area (BICA) was extirpated in the 1800s, and then reintroduced in 1973. The herd increased to a peak population of about 211 animals (Kissell and others, 1996), but then declined sharply in 1995 and 1996. Causes for the decline were unknown. Numbers have remained around 100 ± 20 animals since 1998. Previous modeling efforts determined what areas were suitable bighorn sheep habitat (Gudorf and others, 1996). We tried to determine why sheep were not using areas that were modeled as suitable or acceptable habitat, and to evaluate population dynamics of the herd.

Spatiotemporal patterns of non-genetically modified crops in the era of expansion of genetically modified food

PubMed Central

Sun, Jing; Wu, Wenbin; Tang, Huajun; Liu, Jianguo

2015-01-01

Despite heated debates over the safety of genetically modified (GM) food, GM crops have been expanding rapidly. Much research has focused on the expansion of GM crops. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of non-genetically modified (non-GM) crops are not clear, although they may have significant environmental and agronomic impacts and important policy implications. To understand the dynamics of non-GM crops and to inform the debates among relevant stakeholders, we conducted spatiotemporal analyses of China’s major non-GM soybean production region, the Heilongjiang Province. Even though the total soybean planting area decreased from 2005 to 2010, surprisingly, there were hotspots of increase. The results also showed hotspots of loss as well as a large decline in the number and continuity of soybean plots. Since China is the largest non-GM soybean producer in the world, the decline of its major production region may signal the continual decline of global non-GM soybeans. PMID:26380899

Variation in Rapa Nui (Easter Island) land use indicates production and population peaks prior to European contact.

PubMed

Stevenson, Christopher M; Puleston, Cedric O; Vitousek, Peter M; Chadwick, Oliver A; Haoa, Sonia; Ladefoged, Thegn N

2015-01-27

Many researchers believe that prehistoric Rapa Nui society collapsed because of centuries of unchecked population growth within a fragile environment. Recently, the notion of societal collapse has been questioned with the suggestion that extreme societal and demographic change occurred only after European contact in AD 1722. Establishing the veracity of demographic dynamics has been hindered by the lack of empirical evidence and the inability to establish a precise chronological framework. We use chronometric dates from hydrated obsidian artifacts recovered from habitation sites in regional study areas to evaluate regional land-use within Rapa Nui. The analysis suggests region-specific dynamics including precontact land use decline in some near-coastal and upland areas and postcontact increases and subsequent declines in other coastal locations. These temporal land-use patterns correlate with rainfall variation and soil quality, with poorer environmental locations declining earlier. This analysis confirms that the intensity of land use decreased substantially in some areas of the island before European contact.

Variation in Rapa Nui (Easter Island) land use indicates production and population peaks prior to European contact

PubMed Central

Stevenson, Christopher M.; Puleston, Cedric O.; Vitousek, Peter M.; Chadwick, Oliver A.; Haoa, Sonia; Ladefoged, Thegn N.

2015-01-01

Many researchers believe that prehistoric Rapa Nui society collapsed because of centuries of unchecked population growth within a fragile environment. Recently, the notion of societal collapse has been questioned with the suggestion that extreme societal and demographic change occurred only after European contact in AD 1722. Establishing the veracity of demographic dynamics has been hindered by the lack of empirical evidence and the inability to establish a precise chronological framework. We use chronometric dates from hydrated obsidian artifacts recovered from habitation sites in regional study areas to evaluate regional land-use within Rapa Nui. The analysis suggests region-specific dynamics including precontact land use decline in some near-coastal and upland areas and postcontact increases and subsequent declines in other coastal locations. These temporal land-use patterns correlate with rainfall variation and soil quality, with poorer environmental locations declining earlier. This analysis confirms that the intensity of land use decreased substantially in some areas of the island before European contact. PMID:25561523

Spatiotemporal patterns of non-genetically modified crops in the era of expansion of genetically modified food.

PubMed

Sun, Jing; Wu, Wenbin; Tang, Huajun; Liu, Jianguo

2015-09-18

Despite heated debates over the safety of genetically modified (GM) food, GM crops have been expanding rapidly. Much research has focused on the expansion of GM crops. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of non-genetically modified (non-GM) crops are not clear, although they may have significant environmental and agronomic impacts and important policy implications. To understand the dynamics of non-GM crops and to inform the debates among relevant stakeholders, we conducted spatiotemporal analyses of China's major non-GM soybean production region, the Heilongjiang Province. Even though the total soybean planting area decreased from 2005 to 2010, surprisingly, there were hotspots of increase. The results also showed hotspots of loss as well as a large decline in the number and continuity of soybean plots. Since China is the largest non-GM soybean producer in the world, the decline of its major production region may signal the continual decline of global non-GM soybeans.

Cryptic disease-induced mortality may cause host extinction in an apparently stable host-parasite system.

PubMed

Valenzuela-Sánchez, Andrés; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Uribe-Rivera, David E; Costas, Francisco; Cunningham, Andrew A; Soto-Azat, Claudio

2017-09-27

The decline of wildlife populations due to emerging infectious disease often shows a common pattern: the parasite invades a naive host population, producing epidemic disease and a population decline, sometimes with extirpation. Some susceptible host populations can survive the epidemic phase and persist with endemic parasitic infection. Understanding host-parasite dynamics leading to persistence of the system is imperative to adequately inform conservation practice. Here we combine field data, statistical and mathematical modelling to explore the dynamics of the apparently stable Rhinoderma darwinii - Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) system. Our results indicate that Bd-induced population extirpation may occur even in the absence of epidemics and where parasite prevalence is relatively low. These empirical findings are consistent with previous theoretical predictions showing that highly pathogenic parasites are able to regulate host populations even at extremely low prevalence, highlighting that disease threats should be investigated as a cause of population declines even in the absence of an overt increase in mortality. © 2017 The Author(s).

Changing Gender Norms and Marriage Dynamics in the United States.

PubMed

Pessin, Léa

2018-02-01

Using a regional measure of gender norms from the General Social Surveys together with marital histories from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study explored how gender norms were associated with women's marriage dynamics between 1968 and 2012. Results suggested that a higher prevalence of egalitarian gender norms predicted a decline in marriage formation. This decline was, however, only true for women without a college degree. For college-educated women, the association between gender norms and marriage formation became positive when gender egalitarianism prevailed. The findings also revealed an inverted U-shaped relationship between gender norms and divorce: an initial increase in divorce was observed when gender norms were predominantly traditional. The association, however, reversed as gender norms became egalitarian. No differences by education were found for divorce. The findings partially support the gender revolution framework but also highlight greater barriers to marriage for low-educated women as societies embrace gender equality.

Climatic and density influences on recruitment in an irruptive population of Roosevelt elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starns, Heath D.; Ricca, Mark A.; Duarte, Adam; Weckerly, Floyd W.

2014-01-01

Current paradigms of ungulate population ecology recognize that density-dependent and independent mechanisms are not always mutually exclusive. Long-term data sets are necessary to assess the relative strength of each mechanism, especially when populations display irruptive dynamics. Using an 18-year time series of population abundances of Roosevelt elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) inhabiting Redwood National Park in northwestern California we assessed the influence of population size and climatic variation on elk recruitment and whether irruptive dynamics occurred. An information-theoretic model selection analysis indicated that abundance lagged 2 years and neither climatic factors nor a mix of abundance and climatic factors influenced elk recruitment. However, density-dependent recruitment differed between when the population was declining and when the population increased and then stabilized at an abundance lower than at the start of the decline. The population displayed irruptive dynamics.

Invasion dynamics of white-nose syndrome fungus, midwestern United States, 2012-2014.

PubMed

Langwig, Kate E; Hoyt, Joseph R; Parise, Katy L; Kath, Joe; Kirk, Dan; Frick, Winifred F; Foster, Jeffrey T; Kilpatrick, A Marm

2015-06-01

White-nose syndrome has devastated bat populations in eastern North America. In Midwestern United States, prevalence increased quickly in the first year of invasion (2012-13) but with low population declines. In the second year (2013-14), environmental contamination led to earlier infection and high population declines. Interventions must be implemented before or soon after fungal invasion to prevent population collapse.

Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

Treesearch

John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

2006-01-01

Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

Response lags and environmental dynamics of restoration efforts for Lake Rotorua, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Hannah; Hamilton, David P.; Doole, Graeme J.

2015-07-01

Regulatory responses to degradation of freshwater ecosystems have been characterized by long response times and have often failed to prevent declining health or to implement successful restoration programs. We studied environmental and management dynamics of ecosystem restoration in Lake Rotorua, New Zealand, where land use intensification is the main driver of water quality decline. Water quality decline, invasions by exotic submerged plants and occurrences of algal blooms have led to a number of in-lake interventions such as herbicide spraying (to control submerged plants) and dosing of inflows with Alum to flocculate phosphorus (and reduce algal blooms). Management of land use to reduce nutrient run-off has also been initiated. Based on the drivers-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework, water quality changes and management responses were examined by studying research publications and data from 1922 to 2013. Multinomial regression analysis based on the generalized maximum entropy model was used to investigate the five categories of DPSIR and examine relationships of environmental dynamics and regulatory responses. We tested whether the visibility of ecosystem degradation in the public sphere, and social lag times to respond to them, were drivers of failures of these regulatory responses. Our study shows that management was reactive, and regulations often took effect only when ecosystem decline was already well advanced. There was a disconnect between land use intensification and its role in driving water quality change. Our results indicate that science can better inform management decision making by providing a holistic framework integrating ecological knowledge, economic interest and societal constraints.

Beyond the continuum: a multi-dimensional phase space for neutral-niche community assembly.

PubMed

Latombe, Guillaume; Hui, Cang; McGeoch, Melodie A

2015-12-22

Neutral and niche processes are generally considered to interact in natural communities along a continuum, exhibiting community patterns bounded by pure neutral and pure niche processes. The continuum concept uses niche separation, an attribute of the community, to test the hypothesis that communities are bounded by pure niche or pure neutral conditions. It does not accommodate interactions via feedback between processes and the environment. By contrast, we introduce the Community Assembly Phase Space (CAPS), a multi-dimensional space that uses community processes (such as dispersal and niche selection) to define the limiting neutral and niche conditions and to test the continuum hypothesis. We compare the outputs of modelled communities in a heterogeneous landscape, assembled by pure neutral, pure niche and composite processes. Differences in patterns under different combinations of processes in CAPS reveal hidden complexity in neutral-niche community dynamics. The neutral-niche continuum only holds for strong dispersal limitation and niche separation. For weaker dispersal limitation and niche separation, neutral and niche processes amplify each other via feedback with the environment. This generates patterns that lie well beyond those predicted by a continuum. Inferences drawn from patterns about community assembly processes can therefore be misguided when based on the continuum perspective. CAPS also demonstrates the complementary information value of different patterns for inferring community processes and captures the complexity of community assembly. It provides a general tool for studying the processes structuring communities and can be applied to address a range of questions in community and metacommunity ecology. © 2015 The Author(s).

Beyond the continuum: a multi-dimensional phase space for neutral–niche community assembly

PubMed Central

Latombe, Guillaume; McGeoch, Melodie A.

2015-01-01

Neutral and niche processes are generally considered to interact in natural communities along a continuum, exhibiting community patterns bounded by pure neutral and pure niche processes. The continuum concept uses niche separation, an attribute of the community, to test the hypothesis that communities are bounded by pure niche or pure neutral conditions. It does not accommodate interactions via feedback between processes and the environment. By contrast, we introduce the Community Assembly Phase Space (CAPS), a multi-dimensional space that uses community processes (such as dispersal and niche selection) to define the limiting neutral and niche conditions and to test the continuum hypothesis. We compare the outputs of modelled communities in a heterogeneous landscape, assembled by pure neutral, pure niche and composite processes. Differences in patterns under different combinations of processes in CAPS reveal hidden complexity in neutral–niche community dynamics. The neutral–niche continuum only holds for strong dispersal limitation and niche separation. For weaker dispersal limitation and niche separation, neutral and niche processes amplify each other via feedback with the environment. This generates patterns that lie well beyond those predicted by a continuum. Inferences drawn from patterns about community assembly processes can therefore be misguided when based on the continuum perspective. CAPS also demonstrates the complementary information value of different patterns for inferring community processes and captures the complexity of community assembly. It provides a general tool for studying the processes structuring communities and can be applied to address a range of questions in community and metacommunity ecology. PMID:26702047

Environment and Spatial Influences on Aquatic Insect Communities in Cerrado Streams: the Relative Importance of Conductivity, Altitude, and Conservation Areas.

PubMed

Godoy, B S; Queiroz, L L; Lodi, S; Oliveira, L G

2017-04-01

The aquatic insect community is an important element for stream functionality and diversity, but the effects of altitude and conservation areas on the aquatic insect community have been poorly explored in neotropical ecozone. The lack of studies about the relative importance of space and environment on community structure is another obstacle within aquatic insect ecology, which precludes the inclusion of these studies in more current frameworks, like the metacommunity dynamics. We evaluated the relationship between the aquatic insect community structure at 19 streams in the Brazilian Cerrado and spatial and environmental variables, namely geographical distance among sites, stream altitude, chemical variables, and environmental protection areas. We partitioned the variance explained by spatial and environmental components using a partial redundancy analysis. The environment exhibited a strong spatial structure for abundance and number of genera, increasing these community parameters with elevated water conductivity. Only community composition had a large unexplained portion of variance, with a small portion constrained by environmental (altitude and conductivity) and spatial factors. A relevant point in the result was the streams with high conductivity were located outside of the conservation areas. These results suggest that the relationship between number of genera and abundance with environmental conditions is always associated with spatial configuration of streams. Our study shows that altitude is an important determinant of community structure, as it exerts indirect influences, and electrical conductivity directly determines community composition, and that some national parks may be inefficient in maintaining the diversity of aquatic insects in the Cerrado region.

High Resolution Habitat Suitability Modelling For Restricted-Range Hawaiian Alpine Arthropod Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenson, N. M.

2016-12-01

Mapping potentially suitable habitat is critical for effective species conservation and management but can be challenging in areas exhibiting complex heterogeneity. An approach that combines non-intrusive spatial data collection techniques and field data can lead to a better understanding of landscapes and species distributions. Nysius wekiuicola, commonly known as the wēkiu bug, is the most studied arthropod species endemic to the Maunakea summit in Hawai`i, yet details about its geographic distribution and habitat use remain poorly understood. To predict the geographic distribution of N. wekiuicola, MaxEnt habitat suitability models were generated from a diverse set of input variables, including fifteen years of species occurrence data, high resolution digital elevation models, surface mineralogy maps derived from hyperspectral remote sensing, and climate data. Model results indicate that elevation (78.2 percent), and the presence of nanocrystalline hematite surface minerals (13.7 percent) had the highest influence, with lesser contributions from aspect, slope, and other surface mineral classes. Climatic variables were not included in the final analysis due to auto-correlation and coarse spatial resolution. Biotic factors relating to predation and competition also likely dictate wēkiu bug capture patterns and influence our results. The wēkiu bug range and habitat suitability models generated as a result of this study will be directly incorporated into management and restoration goals for the summit region and can also be adapted for other arthropod species present, leading to a more holistic understanding of metacommunity dynamics. Key words: Microhabitat, Structure from Motion, Lidar, MaxEnt, Habitat Suitability

Regional zooplankton biodiversity provides limited buffering of pond ecosystems against climate change.

PubMed

Thompson, Patrick L; Shurin, Jonathan B

2012-01-01

1. Climate change and other human-driven environmental perturbations are causing reductions in biodiversity and impacting the functioning of ecosystems on a global scale. Metacommunity theory suggests that ecosystem connectivity may reduce the magnitude of these impacts if the regional species pool contains functionally redundant species that differ in their environmental tolerances. Dispersal may increase the resistance of local ecosystems to environmental stress by providing regional species with traits adapted to novel conditions. 2. We tested this theory by subjecting freshwater zooplankton communities in mesocosms that were either connected to or isolated from the larger regional species pool to a factorial manipulation of experimental warming and increased salinity. 3. Compensation by regional taxa depended on the source of stress. Warming tolerant regional taxa partially compensated for reductions in heat sensitive local taxa but similar compensation did not occur under increased salinity. 4. Dispersal-mediated species invasions dampened the effects of warming on summer net ecosystem productivity. However, this buffering effect did not occur in the fall or for periphyton growth, the only other ecosystem function affected by the stress treatments. 5. The results indicate that regional biodiversity can provide insurance in a dynamic environment but that the buffering capacity is limited to some ecosystem processes and sources of stress. Maintaining regional biodiversity and habitat connectivity may therefore provide some limited insurance for local ecosystems in changing environments, but is unable to impart resistance against all sources of environmental stress. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Local bumble bee decline linked to recovery of honey bees, drought effects on floral resources.

PubMed

Thomson, Diane M

2016-10-01

Time series of abundances are critical for understanding how abiotic factors and species interactions affect population dynamics, but are rarely linked with experiments and also scarce for bee pollinators. This gap is important given concerns about declines in some bee species. I monitored honey bee (Apis mellifera) and bumble bee (Bombus spp.) foragers in coastal California from 1999, when feral A. mellifera populations were low due to Varroa destructor, until 2014. Apis mellifera increased substantially, except between 2006 and 2011, coinciding with declines in managed populations. Increases in A. mellifera strongly correlated with declines in Bombus and reduced diet overlap between them, suggesting resource competition consistent with past experimental results. Lower Bombus numbers also correlated with diminished floral resources. Declines in floral abundances were associated with drought and reduced spring rainfall. These results illustrate how competition with an introduced species may interact with climate to drive local decline of native pollinators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Stochastic modeling indicates that aging and somatic evolution in the hematopoetic system are driven by non-cell-autonomous processes.

PubMed

Rozhok, Andrii I; Salstrom, Jennifer L; DeGregori, James

2014-12-01

Age-dependent tissue decline and increased cancer incidence are widely accepted to be rate-limited by the accumulation of somatic mutations over time. Current models of carcinogenesis are dominated by the assumption that oncogenic mutations have defined advantageous fitness effects on recipient stem and progenitor cells, promoting and rate-limiting somatic evolution. However, this assumption is markedly discrepant with evolutionary theory, whereby fitness is a dynamic property of a phenotype imposed upon and widely modulated by environment. We computationally modeled dynamic microenvironment-dependent fitness alterations in hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) within the Sprengel-Liebig system known to govern evolution at the population level. Our model for the first time integrates real data on age-dependent dynamics of HSC division rates, pool size, and accumulation of genetic changes and demonstrates that somatic evolution is not rate-limited by the occurrence of mutations, but instead results from aged microenvironment-driven alterations in the selective/fitness value of previously accumulated genetic changes. Our results are also consistent with evolutionary models of aging and thus oppose both somatic mutation-centric paradigms of carcinogenesis and tissue functional decline. In total, we demonstrate that aging directly promotes HSC fitness decline and somatic evolution via non-cell-autonomous mechanisms.

Drought as a driver of declining boreal forest growth: Integrating forest inventory measurements with models to gain insight into underlying mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trugman, A. T.; Medvigy, D.; Anderegg, W.; Caspersen, J.; Zeng, H.; Pacala, S. W.

2016-12-01

Boreal forests contain over 30% of Earth's terrestrial carbon and are an important component of the land carbon sink. However, the future ability of the boreal forest to maintain a net carbon sink is uncertain and depends on potentially compensating interactions of CO2 fertilization, warmer temperatures, and hotter drought conditions. Observational studies have attributed drought as a major driver of recent declines in growth and increases in mortality in many parts of the North American boreal forest. Yet, most vegetation models have a simplistic representation of vegetation water stress and fail to capture drought-associated growth and mortality trends, impacting our ability to accurately forecast the effects of climate change on the boreal forest. Here, we show additional evidence for widespread declines in boreal tree growth and increasing insect-related mortality in aspen trees based on a mixed model analysis of the Cooperative Alaska Forest Inventory. Our findings indicate that the growth decline is controlled by high midsummer potential evapotranspiration that overpowers any CO2 fertilization signal. We also observe a possible shift in the distribution of angiosperm and gymnosperm, a biological transition that could impact long-term local carbon dynamics. Using insight gained from our mixed model analysis, we perform a regional-scale model evaluation using the boreal forest version of Ecosystem Demography model 2 that includes a dynamic soil organic layer, 7 boreal-specific plant functional types, and a fully mechanistic plant hydraulic scheme. We then use both the Alaskan and Canadian Forest Inventories to constrain our hypotheses and assess whether drought related growth declines can be better attributed to tree drought response from (1) carbon starvation, (2) permanent damage of hydraulic machinery, or (3) delayed recovery of hydraulic machinery. Under each of these scenarios we forecast how drought potentially impacts decadal-scale boreal carbon dynamics.

Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-After-Control-Impact Approach

PubMed Central

Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk – Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves. PMID:25028933

Cenozoic dynamics of shallow-marine biodiversity in the Western Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasuhara, M.; Iwatani, H.; Hunt, G.; Okahashi, H.; Kase, T.; Hayashi, H.; Irizuki, T.; Aguilar, Y. M.; Fernando, A. G. S.; Renema, W.

2016-12-01

Cenozoic dynamics of large-scale species diversity patterns remain poorly understood, especially for the Western Pacific, in part because of the paucity of well-dated fossil records from the tropics. Here we show the spatiotemporal dynamics of species diversity in the Western Pacific through the Cenozoic, focusing on the tropical Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA) biodiversity hotspot. We analysed well-preserved fossil ostracodes from the tropical Western Pacific and combined their diversity data with other published data from the region to reconstruct Cenozoic dynamics of species diversity in the tropical- and northwestern Pacific Ocean. We fit generalized additive models to test for differences in richness over time and across geographic regions while accounting for sample size variation among samples. Low-, mid- and high-latitude regions all show a similar diversity trajectory: diversity is low in the Eocene and Oligocene, increases from the Early Miocene to the Plio-Pleistocene but then declines to the present day. Present day high biodiversity in these regions was established during the Pliocene with a remarkable diversification at that time. Latitudinal diversity patterns are relatively flat and never show as simple decline from the tropics to higher latitudes. Western Pacific Cenozoic ostracodes exhibit a spatiotemporal pattern of species diversity that is inconsistent with the commonly reported and persistent pattern of declining diversity from the tropics to the extratropics. While this inconsistency could be interpreted as evidence that ostracodes are a contrarian clade, Atlantic ostracodes display a standard latitudinal species diversity gradient. Contrasting patterns between oceans suggests an important role for regional factors (e.g., plate tectonics and temporal geomorphological dynamics) in shaping the biodiversity of the Western Pacific.

Trypanosoma cruzi reservoir—triatomine vector co-occurrence networks reveal meta-community effects by synanthropic mammals on geographic dispersal

PubMed Central

Valiente-Banuet, Leopoldo; Sánchez-Cordero, Víctor; Stephens, Christopher R.

2017-01-01

Contemporary patterns of land use and global climate change are modifying regional pools of parasite host species. The impact of host community changes on human disease risk, however, is difficult to assess due to a lack of information about zoonotic parasite host assemblages. We have used a recently developed method to infer parasite-host interactions for Chagas Disease (CD) from vector-host co-occurrence networks. Vector-host networks were constructed to analyze topological characteristics of the network and ecological traits of species’ nodes, which could provide information regarding parasite regional dispersal in Mexico. Twenty-eight triatomine species (vectors) and 396 mammal species (potential hosts) were included using a data-mining approach to develop models to infer most-likely interactions. The final network contained 1,576 links which were analyzed to calculate centrality, connectivity, and modularity. The model predicted links of independently registered Trypanosoma cruzi hosts, which correlated with the degree of parasite-vector co-occurrence. Wiring patterns differed according to node location, while edge density was greater in Neotropical as compared to Nearctic regions. Vectors with greatest public health importance (i.e., Triatoma dimidiata, T. barberi, T. pallidipennis, T. longipennis, etc), did not have stronger links with particular host species, although they had a greater frequency of significant links. In contrast, hosts classified as important based on network properties were synanthropic mammals. The latter were the most common parasite hosts and are likely bridge species between these communities, thereby integrating meta-community scenarios beneficial for long-range parasite dispersal. This was particularly true for rodents, >50% of species are synanthropic and more than 20% have been identified as T. cruzi hosts. In addition to predicting potential host species using the co-occurrence networks, they reveal regions with greater expected parasite mobility. The Neotropical region, which includes the Mexican south and southeast, and the Transvolcanic belt, had greatest potential active T. cruzi dispersal, as well as greatest edge density. This information could be directly applied for stratification of transmission risk and to design and analyze human-infected vector contact intervention efficacy. PMID:28413725

Taxonomic and numerical sufficiency in a Lower and Middle Miocene molluscan metacommunity of the Central Paratethys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuschin, Martin; Nawrot, Rafal; Harzhauser, Mathias; Mandic, Oleg

2015-04-01

Among the most important questions in quantitative palaeoecology is how taxonomic and numerical resolution affect the analysis of community and metacommunity patterns. A species-abundance data set (10 localities, 213 bulk samples, 478 species, > 49,000 shells) from Burdigalian, Langhian and Serravallian benthic marine molluscan assemblages of the Central Paratethys was studied for this purpose. Assemblages are from two nearshore habitats (estuarine and marine intertidal) and three subtidal habitats (estuarine, fully marine sandy, and fully marine pelitic), which represent four biozones and four 3rd order depositional sequences over more than three million years, and are developed along the same depth-related environmental gradient. Double-standardized data subsampled to 19 samples per habitat, each with a minimum of 50 specimens, were used to calculate R²-values from PERMANOVA as a measure of differences between habitats at three taxonomic levels (species, genera and families) and at five levels of data transformation (raw abundances, percentages, square-root transformed percentages, fourth-root transformed percentages, presence-absence data). Species discriminate better between habitats than genera and families, but the differences between taxonomic levels are much stronger in the subtidal, where genera and families have more species than than in the intertidal. When all habitats are compared percentages and square-root transformed percentages discriminate equally well and perform better than higher levels of data transformation. Among nearshore and among subtidal habitats, however, the ability to discriminate between habitats increases with the level of data transformation (i.e., it is best for fourth-root transformed percentages and presence-absence data). The impact of decreasing taxonomic resolution is of minor importance in nearshore habitats, which are characterized by similar assemblages showing strong dominance of few widely distributed species, and many families represented by only one species (77.9%). Consequently, the differentiation between nearshore habitats is much weaker compared to subtidal assemblages. The latter are characterized by more distinct, relatively even assemblages with comparatively few families represented by only one species (64.2%) and many rare taxa, whose importance is emphasized by higher levels of data transformation.

Combined effects of climate, predation, and density dependence on Greater and Lesser Scaup population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth E.; Hooten, Mevin B.; DeVink, Jean-Michel; Koons, David N.

2015-01-01

An understanding of species relationships is critical in the management and conservation of populations facing climate change, yet few studies address how climate alters species interactions and other population drivers. We use a long-term, broad-scale data set of relative abundance to examine the influence of climate, predators, and density dependence on the population dynamics of declining scaup (Aythya) species within the core of their breeding range. The state-space modeling approach we use applies to a wide range of wildlife species, especially populations monitored over broad spatiotemporal extents. Using this approach, we found that immediate snow cover extent in the preceding winter and spring had the strongest effects, with increases in mean snow cover extent having a positive effect on the local surveyed abundance of scaup. The direct effects of mesopredator abundance on scaup population dynamics were weaker, but the results still indicated a potential interactive process between climate and food web dynamics (mesopredators, alternative prey, and scaup). By considering climate variables and other potential effects on population dynamics, and using a rigorous estimation framework, we provide insight into complex ecological processes for guiding conservation and policy actions aimed at mitigating and reversing the decline of scaup.

Adolescent Changes in Homeostatic Regulation of EEG Activity in the Delta and Theta Frequency Bands during NREM Sleep

PubMed Central

Campbell, Ian G.; Darchia, Nato; Higgins, Lisa M.; Dykan, Igor V.; Davis, Nicole M.; de Bie, Evan; Feinberg, Irwin

2011-01-01

Study Objectives: Slow wave EEG activity in NREM sleep decreases by more than 60% between ages 10 and 20 years. Slow wave EEG activity also declines across NREM periods (NREMPs) within a night, and this decline is thought to represent the dynamics of sleep homeostasis. We used longitudinal data to determine whether these homeostatic dynamics change across adolescence. Design: All-night sleep EEG was recorded semiannually for 6 years. Setting: EEG was recorded with ambulatory recorders in the subjects' homes. Participants: Sixty-seven subjects in 2 cohorts, one starting at age 9 and one starting at age 12 years. Measurements and Results: For NREM delta (1-4 Hz) and theta (4-8 Hz) EEG, we tested whether the proportion of spectral energy contained in the first NREMP changes with age. We also tested for age changes in the parameters of the process S exponential decline. For both delta and theta, the proportion of energy in the first NREMP declined significantly across ages 9 to 18 years. Process S parameters SWA0 and TWA0, respectively, represent slow wave (delta) activity and theta wave activity at the beginning of the night. SWA0 and TWA0 declined significantly (P < 0.0001) across ages 9 to 18. Conclusions: These declines indicate that the intensity of the homeostatic or restorative processes at the beginning of sleep diminished across adolescence. We propose that this change in sleep regulation is caused by the synaptic pruning that occurs during adolescent brain maturation. Citation: Campbell IG; Darchia N; Higgins LM; Dykan IV; Davis NM; de Bie E; Feinberg I. Adolescent changes in homeostatic regulation of EEG activity in the delta and theta frequency bands during NREM sleep. SLEEP 2011;34(1):83-91. PMID:21203377

The abundance of the Lyme disease pathogen Borrelia afzelii declines over time in the tick vector Ixodes ricinus.

PubMed

Jacquet, Maxime; Genné, Dolores; Belli, Alessandro; Maluenda, Elodie; Sarr, Anouk; Voordouw, Maarten J

2017-05-25

The population dynamics of vector-borne pathogens inside the arthropod vector can have important consequences for vector-to-host transmission. Tick-borne spirochete bacteria of the Borrelia burgdorferi (sensu lato) species complex cause Lyme borreliosis in humans and spend long periods of time (>12 months) in their Ixodes tick vectors. To date, few studies have investigated the dynamics of Borrelia spirochete populations in unfed Ixodes nymphal ticks. Larval ticks from our laboratory colony of I. ricinus were experimentally infected with B. afzelii, and killed at 1 month and 4 months after the larva-to-nymph moult. The spirochete load was also compared between engorged larval ticks and unfed nymphs (from the same cohort) and between unfed nymphs and unfed adult ticks (from the same cohort). The spirochete load of B. afzelii in each tick was estimated using qPCR. The mean spirochete load in the 1-month-old nymphs (~14,000 spirochetes) was seven times higher than the 4-month-old nymphs (~2000 spirochetes). Thus, the nymphal spirochete load declined by 80% over a period of 3 months. An engorged larval tick acquired ~100 spirochetes, and this population was 20 times larger in a young, unfed nymph. The spirochete load also appeared to decline in adult ticks. Comparison between wild and laboratory populations found that lab ticks were more susceptible to acquiring B. afzelii. The spirochete load of B. afzelii declines dramatically over time in domesticated I. ricinus nymphs under laboratory conditions. Future studies should investigate whether temporal declines in spirochete load occur in wild Ixodes ticks under natural conditions and whether these declines influence the tick-to-host transmission of Borrelia.

DOD Strategic Religious Engagement: A Luxury or a Necessity?

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

prepared to conduct religious engagement along tense, international religious fault lines. This paper explores how , in a season of declining resources...tense, international religious fault lines. This paper explores how , in a season of declining resources, the U.S. Government can leverage the Combatant...later, it is easier to see how mistakes made in identifying and understanding the intelligence on the cultural dynamics at work in the Middle East led

Land cover dynamics across the Great Plains and their influence on breeding birds: Potential artefact of data and analysis limitations

Treesearch

C. H. Flather; M. S. Knowles; L. S. Baggett

2017-01-01

The distribution and abundance of obligate grassland breeding birds in the US have declined across the Great Plains as native habitats have been converted to intensive human land use. A major finding of Scholtz et al. (2017: Table 3) was that the group-wise extinction rate among 13 common grassland nesting birds declined with increasing cropland. This conclusion runs...

Demographic response of a shrubland bird to habitat creation, succession, and disturbance in a dynamic landscape

Treesearch

Michael E. Akresh; David I. King; Robert T. Brooks

2015-01-01

Shrubland birds have experienced widespread declines in the eastern United States. Habitat for shrubland birds is typically dynamic, in which available habitat changes temporally and spatially in response to disturbance and succession. Despite widespread concerns among conservationists about shrubland birds, much is still poorly understood regarding fundamental...

Contrast-enhanced ultrasound measurement of pancreatic blood flow dynamics predicts type 1 diabetes progression in preclinical models.

PubMed

St Clair, Joshua R; Ramirez, David; Passman, Samantha; Benninger, Richard K P

2018-05-01

In type 1 diabetes (T1D), immune-cell infiltration into the islets of Langerhans (insulitis) and β-cell decline occurs many years before diabetes clinically presents. Non-invasively detecting insulitis and β-cell decline would allow the diagnosis of eventual diabetes, and provide a means to monitor therapeutic intervention. However, there is a lack of validated clinical approaches for specifically and non-invasively imaging disease progression leading to T1D. Islets have a denser microvasculature that reorganizes during diabetes. Here we apply contrast-enhanced ultrasound measurements of pancreatic blood-flow dynamics to non-invasively and predictively assess disease progression in T1D pre-clinical models. STZ-treated mice, NOD mice, and adoptive-transfer mice demonstrate altered islet blood-flow dynamics prior to diabetes onset, consistent with islet microvasculature reorganization. These assessments predict both time to diabetes onset and future responders to antiCD4-mediated disease prevention. Thus contrast-enhanced ultrasound measurements of pancreas blood-flow dynamics may provide a clinically deployable predictive marker for disease progression in pre-symptomatic T1D and therapeutic reversal.

Somatic growth dynamics of West Atlantic hawksbill sea turtles: a spatio-temporal perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjorndal, Karen A.; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S.; Diez, Carlos E.; van Dam, Robert P.; Krueger, Barry H.; Horrocks, Julia A.; Santos, Armando J.B.; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A.G.; Nava, Mabel; Willis, Sue; Godley, Brendan J.; Gore, Shannon; Hawkes, Lucy A.; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J.; Stringell, Thomas B.; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B.; Broderick, Annette C.; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta C.; Claydon, John A.B.; Blumenthal, Janice; Moncada, Felix; Nodarse, Gonzalo; Medina, Yosvani; Dunbar, Stephen G.; Wood, Lawrence D.; Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Burns Perez, Virginia R.; Coleman, Robin A.; Strindberg, Samantha; Guzmán-H, Vicente; Hart, Kristen M.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Lundgren, Ian; Boulon, Ralf H.; Connett, Stephen; Outerbridge, Mark E.; Bolten, Alan B.

2016-01-01

Somatic growth dynamics are an integrated response to environmental conditions. Hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) are long-lived, major consumers in coral reef habitats that move over broad geographic areas (hundreds to thousands of kilometers). We evaluated spatio-temporal effects on hawksbill growth dynamics over a 33-yr period and 24 study sites throughout the West Atlantic and explored relationships between growth dynamics and climate indices. We compiled the largest ever data set on somatic growth rates for hawksbills – 3541 growth increments from 1980 to 2013. Using generalized additive mixed model analyses, we evaluated 10 covariates, including spatial and temporal variation, that could affect growth rates. Growth rates throughout the region responded similarly over space and time. The lack of a spatial effect or spatio-temporal interaction and the very strong temporal effect reveal that growth rates in West Atlantic hawksbills are likely driven by region-wide forces. Between 1997 and 2013, mean growth rates declined significantly and steadily by 18%. Regional climate indices have significant relationships with annual growth rates with 0- or 1-yr lags: positive with the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (correlation = 0.99) and negative with Caribbean sea surface temperature (correlation = −0.85). Declines in growth rates between 1997 and 2013 throughout the West Atlantic most likely resulted from warming waters through indirect negative effects on foraging resources of hawksbills. These climatic influences are complex. With increasing temperatures, trajectories of decline of coral cover and availability in reef habitats of major prey species of hawksbills are not parallel. Knowledge of how choice of foraging habitats, prey selection, and prey abundance are affected by warming water temperatures is needed to understand how climate change will affect productivity of consumers that live in association with coral reefs. Main conclusions The decadal declines in growth rates between 1997 and 2013 throughout the West Atlantic most likely resulted from warming waters through indirect negative effects on the foraging resources of hawksbills. These climatic influences are complex. With increasing temperatures, the trajectories of decline of coral cover and availability in reef habitats of major prey species of hawksbills are not parallel. Knowledge of how choice of foraging habitats, prey selection, and prey abundance are affected by warming water temperatures is needed to understand how climate change will affect productivity of consumers that live in association with coral reefs.

Seasonal zooplankton dynamics in Lake Michigan: disentangling impacts of resource limitation, ecosystem engineering, and predation during a critical ecosystem transition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vanderploeg, Henry A.; Pothoven, Steven A.; Fahnenstiel, Gary L.; Cavaletto, Joann F.; Liebig, James R.; Stow, Craig Stow; Nalepa, Thomas F.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.

2012-01-01

We examined seasonal dynamics of zooplankton at an offshore station in Lake Michigan from 1994 to 2003 and 2007 to 2008. This period saw variable weather, declines in planktivorous fish abundance, the introduction and expansion of dreissenid mussels, and a slow decline in total phosphorus concentrations. After the major expansion of mussels into deep water (2007–2008), chlorophyll in spring declined sharply, Secchi depth increased markedly in all seasons, and planktivorous fish biomass declined to record-low levels. Overlaying these dramatic ecosystem-level changes, the zooplankton community exhibited complex seasonal dynamics between 1994–2003 and 2007–2008. Phenology of the zooplankton maximum was affected by onset of thermal stratification, but there was no other discernable effect due to temperature. Interannual variability in zooplankton biomass during 1994 and 2003 was strongly driven by planktivorous fish abundance, particularly age-0 and age-1 alewives. In 2007–2008, there were large decreases in Diacyclops thomasi and Daphnia mendotae possibly caused by food limitation as well as increased predation and indirect negative effects from increases in Bythotrephes longimanus abundance and in foraging efficiency associated with increased light penetration. The Bythotrephes increase was likely driven in part by decreased predation from yearling and older alewife. While there was a major decrease in epilimnetic–metalimnetic herbivorous cladocerans in 2007–2008, there was an increase in large omnivorous and predacious calanoid copepods, especially those in the hypolimnion. Thus, changes to the zooplankton community are the result of cascading, synergistic interactions, including a shift from vertebrate to invertebrate planktivory and mussel ecosystem impacts on light climate and chlorophyll.

Loss of foundation species: consequences for the structure and dynamics of forested ecosystems

Treesearch

Aaron M. Ellison; Michael S. Bank; Barton D. Clinton; Elizabeth A. Colburn; Katherine Elliott; Chelcy Rae Ford; David R. Foster; Brian D. Kloeppel; Jennifer D. Knoepp; Gary M. Lovett; Jacqueline Mohan; David A. Orwig; Nicholas L. Rodenhouse; William V. Sobczak; Kristina A. Stinson; Jeffrey K. Stone; Christopher M. Swan; Jill Thompson; Betsy Von Holle; Jackson R. Webster

2005-01-01

In many forested ecosystems, the architecture and functional ecology of certain tree species define forest structure and their species-specific traits control ecosystem dynamics. Such foundation tree species are declining throughout the world due to introductions and outbreaks of pests and pathogens, selective removal of individual taxa, and over-harvesting. Through a...

Declining sediment loads from Redwood Creek and the Klamath River, north coastal California

Treesearch

Randy D. Klein; Jeffrey K. Anderson

2012-01-01

River basin sediment loads are affected by several factors, with flood magnitude and watershed erosional stability playing dominant and dynamic roles. Long-term average sediment loads for northern California river basins have been computed by several researchers by several methods. However, characterizing the dynamic nature of climate and watershed stability requires...

Decline in Antarctic Ozone Depletion and Lower Stratospheric Chlorine Determined From Aura Microwave Limb Sounder Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.

2018-01-01

Attribution of Antarctic ozone recovery to the Montreal protocol requires evidence that (1) Antarctic chlorine levels are declining and (2) there is a reduction in ozone depletion in response to a chlorine decline. We use Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of O3, HCl, and N2O to demonstrate that inorganic chlorine (Cly) from 2013 to 2016 was 223 ± 93 parts per trillion lower in the Antarctic lower stratosphere than from 2004 to 2007 and that column ozone depletion declined in response. The mean Cly decline rate, 0.8%/yr, agrees with the expected rate based on chlorofluorocarbon lifetimes. N2O measurements are crucial for identifying changes in stratospheric Cly loading independent of dynamical variability. From 2005 to 2016, the ozone depletion and Cly time series show matching periods of decline, stability, and increase. The observed sensitivity of O3 depletion to changing Cly agrees with the sensitivity simulated by the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry transport model integrated with Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications 2 meteorology.

Temporal Dynamics of Cognitive Performance and Anxiety Across Older Adulthood

PubMed Central

Petkus, Andrew J.; Reynolds, Chandra A.; Wetherell, Julie Loebach; Kremen, William S.; Gatz, Margaret

2017-01-01

Cognitive decline and anxiety symptoms commonly co-occur in later life, but the temporal order of changes on these two attributes is unclear. Specifically, it is unknown if greater anxiety leads to subsequent declines in cognitive performance or if worse cognitive performance leads to increased anxiety. In this study, we sought to elucidate the temporal dynamics between anxiety symptoms and cognitive performance across old age, that is, the extent to which level and change in one variable influence subsequent changes in a second variable. We examined data from 721 non-demented participants from the Swedish Adoption/Twin Study of Aging. Participants completed as many as eight assessments of cognitive performance and anxiety over a 26-year period. Bivariate dual change score models were fit to examine the dynamic association between anxiety and cognitive performance. Bidirectional associations between anxiety and cognitive performance were found among measures of processing speed, attention, and memory, but not visuospatial abilities. Higher anxiety was associated with greater declines in processing speed over the duration of six years and worsening attention over a span of three years. The reverse direction was also significant in that slower processing speed, worse attention, and poorer nonverbal and working memory performance were associated with larger increases in anxiety three years later. These findings highlight that in cognitively intact older adults, the association between anxiety and worse cognitive performance is bidirectional and complex. PMID:28333502

Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, N.C.; Kauffman, M.J.; Mills, L.S.

2008-01-01

Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

Lymphocyte maintenance during healthy aging requires no substantial alterations in cellular turnover.

PubMed

Westera, Liset; van Hoeven, Vera; Drylewicz, Julia; Spierenburg, Gerrit; van Velzen, Jeroen F; de Boer, Rob J; Tesselaar, Kiki; Borghans, José A M

2015-04-01

In healthy humans, lymphocyte populations are maintained at a relatively constant size throughout life, reflecting a balance between lymphocyte production and loss. Given the profound immunological changes that occur during healthy aging, including a significant decline in T-cell production by the thymus, lymphocyte maintenance in the elderly is generally thought to require homeostatic alterations in lymphocyte dynamics. Surprisingly, using in vivo (2) H2 O labeling, we find similar dynamics of most lymphocyte subsets between young adult and elderly healthy individuals. As the contribution of thymic output to T-cell production is only minor from young adulthood onward, compensatory increases in peripheral T-cell division rates are not required to maintain the T-cell pool, despite a tenfold decline in thymic output. These fundamental insights will aid the interpretation of further research into aging and clinical conditions related to disturbed lymphocyte dynamics. © 2015 The Authors. Aging Cell published by the Anatomical Society and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Study on the complexity pricing game and coordination of the duopoly air conditioner market with disturbance demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Junhai; Xie, Lei

2016-03-01

The paper focuses on the dynamic pricing game of the duopoly air conditioner market with disturbance in demand and analyzes the influence of disturbance on the dynamic game system. Considering the demand for products, such as air conditioner, varies with different seasons, we assume three cases based on the condition of disturbance, including growth market (Case 1), declining market (Case 2) and completely random market (Case 3). By analyzing these three cases and making comparison among them, the paper shows that the growth market is more sensitive to the changing parameters such as the adjustment variable and the competitive factor than the declining market. It is more difficult to keep the system stable in a growth market. Although the demand is completely random, the dynamic system can reach a stable state, on condition that the adjustment variable is small enough. The results also indicate that the bullwhip effect between the order quantity and the actual demand is weakened gradually along with the price adjustment.

Long-term monitoring data provide evidence of declining species richness in a river valued for biodiversity conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freeman, Mary C.; Hagler, Megan M.; Bumpers, Phillip M.; Wheeler, Kit; Wengerd, Seth J.; Freeman, Byron J.

2017-01-01

Free-flowing river segments provide refuges for many imperiled aquatic biota that have been extirpated elsewhere in their native ranges. These biodiversity refuges are also foci of conservation concerns because species persisting within isolated habitat fragments may be particularly vulnerable to local environmental change. We have analyzed long-term (14- and 20-y) survey data to assess evidence of fish species declines in two southeastern U.S. rivers where managers and stakeholders have identified potentially detrimental impacts of current and future land uses. The Conasauga River (Georgia and Tennessee) and the Etowah River (Georgia) form free-flowing headwaters of the extensively dammed Coosa River system. These rivers are valued in part because they harbor multiple species of conservation concern, including three federally endangered and two federally threatened fishes. We used data sets comprising annual surveys for fish species at multiple, fixed sites located at river shoals to analyze occupancy dynamics and temporal changes in species richness. Our analyses incorporated repeated site-specific surveys in some years to estimate and account for incomplete species detection, and test for species-specific (rarity, mainstem-restriction) and year-specific (elevated frequencies of low- or high-flow days) covariates on occupancy dynamics. In the Conasauga River, analysis of 26 species at 13 sites showed evidence of temporal declines in colonization rates for nearly all taxa, accompanied by declining species richness. Four taxa (including one federally endangered species) had reduced occupancy across the Conasauga study sites, with three of these taxa apparently absent for at least the last 5 y of the study. In contrast, a similar fauna of 28 taxa at 10 sites in the Etowah River showed no trends in species persistence, colonization, or occupancy. None of the tested covariates showed strong effects on persistence or colonization rates in either river. Previous studies and observations identified contaminants, nutrient loading, or changes in benthic habitat as possible causes for fish species declines in the Conasauga River. Our analysis provides baseline information that could be used to assess effectiveness of future management actions in the Conasauga or Etowah rivers, and illustrates the use of dynamic occupancy models to evaluate evidence of faunal decline from time-series data.

Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Niels M.; Ims, Rolf A.; Høye, Toke T.; Gilg, Olivier; Hansen, Lars H.; Hansen, Jannik; Lund, Magnus; Fuglei, Eva; Forchhammer, Mads C.; Sittler, Benoit

2012-01-01

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988–2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state. PMID:22977153

Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles.

PubMed

Schmidt, Niels M; Ims, Rolf A; Høye, Toke T; Gilg, Olivier; Hansen, Lars H; Hansen, Jannik; Lund, Magnus; Fuglei, Eva; Forchhammer, Mads C; Sittler, Benoit

2012-11-07

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988-2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state.

Education and Cognitive Decline in Older Americans: Results From the AHEAD Sample

PubMed Central

Alley, Dawn; Suthers, Kristen; Crimmins, Eileen

2009-01-01

Although education is consistently related to better cognitive performance, findings on the relationship between education and age-associated cognitive change have been conflicting. Using measures of multiple cognitive domains from four waves of the Asset and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old study, a representative sample of Americans aged 70 years and older, the authors performed growth curve modeling to examine the relationships between education, initial cognitive score, and the rate of decline in cognitive function. More years of education were linked to better initial performance on each of the cognitive tests, and higher levels of education were linked to slower decline in mental status. However, more education was unrelated to the rate of decline in working memory, and education was associated with somewhat faster cognitive decline on measures of verbal memory. These findings highlight the role of early-life experiences not only in long-term cognitive performance but also in old-age cognitive trajectories. PMID:19830260

Scaling rules for the final decline to extinction

PubMed Central

Griffen, Blaine D.; Drake, John M.

2009-01-01

Space–time scaling rules are ubiquitous in ecological phenomena. Current theory postulates three scaling rules that describe the duration of a population's final decline to extinction, although these predictions have not previously been empirically confirmed. We examine these scaling rules across a broader set of conditions, including a wide range of density-dependent patterns in the underlying population dynamics. We then report on tests of these predictions from experiments using the cladoceran Daphnia magna as a model. Our results support two predictions that: (i) the duration of population persistence is much greater than the duration of the final decline to extinction and (ii) the duration of the final decline to extinction increases with the logarithm of the population's estimated carrying capacity. However, our results do not support a third prediction that the duration of the final decline scales inversely with population growth rate. These findings not only support the current standard theory of population extinction but also introduce new empirical anomalies awaiting a theoretical explanation. PMID:19141422

Dynamics and genetics of a disease-driven species decline to near extinction: lessons for conservation

PubMed Central

Hudson, M. A.; Young, R. P.; D’Urban Jackson, J.; Orozco-terWengel, P.; Martin, L.; James, A.; Sulton, M.; Garcia, G.; Griffiths, R. A.; Thomas, R.; Magin, C.; Bruford, M. W.; Cunningham, A. A.

2016-01-01

Amphibian chytridiomycosis has caused precipitous declines in hundreds of species worldwide. By tracking mountain chicken (Leptodactylus fallax) populations before, during and after the emergence of chytridiomycosis, we quantified the real-time species level impacts of this disease. We report a range-wide species decline amongst the fastest ever recorded, with a loss of over 85% of the population in fewer than 18 months on Dominica and near extinction on Montserrat. Genetic diversity declined in the wild, but emergency measures to establish a captive assurance population captured a representative sample of genetic diversity from Montserrat. If the Convention on Biological Diversity’s targets are to be met, it is important to evaluate the reasons why they appear consistently unattainable. The emergence of chytridiomycosis in the mountain chicken was predictable, but the decline could not be prevented. There is an urgent need to build mitigation capacity where amphibians are at risk from chytridiomycosis. PMID:27485994

Vegetation dynamics and rainfall sensitivity of the Amazon.

PubMed

Hilker, Thomas; Lyapustin, Alexei I; Tucker, Compton J; Hall, Forrest G; Myneni, Ranga B; Wang, Yujie; Bi, Jian; Mendes de Moura, Yhasmin; Sellers, Piers J

2014-11-11

We show that the vegetation canopy of the Amazon rainforest is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns and that reduction in rainfall since 2000 has diminished vegetation greenness across large parts of Amazonia. Large-scale directional declines in vegetation greenness may indicate decreases in carbon uptake and substantial changes in the energy balance of the Amazon. We use improved estimates of surface reflectance from satellite data to show a close link between reductions in annual precipitation, El Niño southern oscillation events, and photosynthetic activity across tropical and subtropical Amazonia. We report that, since the year 2000, precipitation has declined across 69% of the tropical evergreen forest (5.4 million km(2)) and across 80% of the subtropical grasslands (3.3 million km(2)). These reductions, which coincided with a decline in terrestrial water storage, account for about 55% of a satellite-observed widespread decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). During El Niño events, NDVI was reduced about 16.6% across an area of up to 1.6 million km(2) compared with average conditions. Several global circulation models suggest that a rise in equatorial sea surface temperature and related displacement of the intertropical convergence zone could lead to considerable drying of tropical forests in the 21st century. Our results provide evidence that persistent drying could degrade Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.

Vegetation Dynamics and Rainfall Sensitivity of the Amazon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hilker, Thomas; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Tucker, Compton J.; Hall, Forrest G.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Wang, Yujie; Bi, Jian; Mendes de Moura, Yhasmin; Sellers, Piers J.

2014-01-01

We show that the vegetation canopy of the Amazon rainforest is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns and that reduction in rainfall since 2000 has diminished vegetation greenness across large parts of Amazonia. Large-scale directional declines in vegetation greenness may indicate decreases in carbon uptake and substantial changes in the energy balance of the Amazon. We use improved estimates of surface reflectance from satellite data to show a close link between reductions in annual precipitation, El Nino southern oscillation events, and photosynthetic activity across tropical and subtropical Amazonia. We report that, since the year 2000, precipitation has declined across 69% of the tropical evergreen forest (5.4 million sq km) and across 80% of the subtropical grasslands (3.3 million sq km). These reductions, which coincided with a decline in terrestrial water storage, account for about 55% of a satellite-observed widespread decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). During El Nino events, NDVI was reduced about 16.6% across an area of up to 1.6 million sq km compared with average conditions. Several global circulation models suggest that a rise in equatorial sea surface temperature and related displacement of the intertropical convergence zone could lead to considerable drying of tropical forests in the 21st century. Our results provide evidence that persistent drying could degrade Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.

Changing dynamics of Caribbean reef carbonate budgets: emergence of reef bioeroders as critical controls on present and future reef growth potential.

PubMed

Perry, Chris T; Murphy, Gary N; Kench, Paul S; Edinger, Evan N; Smithers, Scott G; Steneck, Robert S; Mumby, Peter J

2014-12-07

Coral cover has declined rapidly on Caribbean reefs since the early 1980s, reducing carbonate production and reef growth. Using a cross-regional dataset, we show that widespread reductions in bioerosion rates-a key carbonate cycling process-have accompanied carbonate production declines. Bioerosion by parrotfish, urchins, endolithic sponges and microendoliths collectively averages 2 G (where G = kg CaCO3 m(-2) yr(-1)) (range 0.96-3.67 G). This rate is at least 75% lower than that reported from Caribbean reefs prior to their shift towards their present degraded state. Despite chronic overfishing, parrotfish are the dominant bioeroders, but erosion rates are reduced from averages of approximately 4 to 1.6 G. Urchin erosion rates have declined further and are functionally irrelevant to bioerosion on most reefs. These changes demonstrate a fundamental shift in Caribbean reef carbonate budget dynamics. To-date, reduced bioerosion rates have partially offset carbonate production declines, limiting the extent to which more widespread transitions to negative budget states have occurred. However, given the poor prognosis for coral recovery in the Caribbean and reported shifts to coral community states dominated by slower calcifying taxa, a continued transition from production to bioerosion-controlled budget states, which will increasingly threaten reef growth, is predicted. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of seagrass landscapes using time-series remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, Mitchell B.; Roelfsema, Chris M.; Phinn, Stuart R.

2013-03-01

The spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrasses have been well studied at the leaf to patch scales, however, the link to large spatial extent landscape and population dynamics is still unresolved in seagrass ecology. Traditional remote sensing approaches have lacked the temporal resolution and consistency to appropriately address this issue. This study uses two high temporal resolution time-series of thematic seagrass cover maps to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrass at both an inter- and intra-annual time scales, one of the first globally to do so at this scale. Previous work by the authors developed an object-based approach to map seagrass cover level distribution from a long term archive of Landsat TM and ETM+ images on the Eastern Banks (≈200 km2), Moreton Bay, Australia. In this work a range of trend and time-series analysis methods are demonstrated for a time-series of 23 annual maps from 1988 to 2010 and a time-series of 16 monthly maps during 2008-2010. Significant new insight was presented regarding the inter- and intra-annual dynamics of seagrass persistence over time, seagrass cover level variability, seagrass cover level trajectory, and change in area of seagrass and cover levels over time. Overall we found that there was no significant decline in total seagrass area on the Eastern Banks, but there was a significant decline in seagrass cover level condition. A case study of two smaller communities within the Eastern Banks that experienced a decline in both overall seagrass area and condition are examined in detail, highlighting possible differences in environmental and process drivers. We demonstrate how trend and time-series analysis enabled seagrass distribution to be appropriately assessed in context of its spatial and temporal history and provides the ability to not only quantify change, but also describe the type of change. We also demonstrate the potential use of time-series analysis products to investigate seagrass growth and decline as well as the processes that drive it. This study demonstrates clear benefits over traditional seagrass mapping and monitoring approaches, and provides a proof of concept for the use of trend and time-series analysis of remotely sensed seagrass products to benefit current endeavours in seagrass ecology.

The Dynamics of the Aspirations and Demands of Different Generations of Russia's Young People

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khotkina, Z. A.

2013-01-01

Survey data comparing the life aspirations of three generations of Russians show an increase from the level of the Soviet generation of young people to the perestroika generation, followed by a decline in the generation of young people who were born and grew up in today's "market" Russia. One chief cause of the downward dynamic of their…

Dynamics of Bacterial and Fungal Communities during the Outbreak and Decline of an Algal Bloom in a Drinking Water Reservoir.

PubMed

Zhang, Haihan; Jia, Jingyu; Chen, Shengnan; Huang, Tinglin; Wang, Yue; Zhao, Zhenfang; Feng, Ji; Hao, Huiyan; Li, Sulin; Ma, Xinxin

2018-02-18

The microbial communities associated with algal blooms play a pivotal role in organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in freshwater ecosystems. However, there have been few studies focused on unveiling the dynamics of bacterial and fungal communities during the outbreak and decline of algal blooms in drinking water reservoirs. To address this issue, the compositions of bacterial and fungal communities were assessed in the Zhoucun drinking water reservoir using 16S rRNA and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) gene Illumina MiSeq sequencing techniques. The results showed the algal bloom was dominated by Synechococcus, Microcystis, and Prochlorothrix. The bloom was characterized by a steady decrease of total phosphorus (TP) from the outbreak to the decline period (p < 0.05) while Fe concentration increased sharply during the decline period (p < 0.05). The highest algal biomass and cell concentrations observed during the bloom were 51.7 mg/L and 1.9×108 cell/L, respectively. The cell concentration was positively correlated with CODMn (r = 0.89, p = 0.02). Illumina Miseq sequencing showed that algal bloom altered the water bacterial and fungal community structure. During the bloom, the dominant bacterial genus were Acinetobacter sp., Limnobacter sp., Synechococcus sp., and Roseomonas sp. The relative size of the fungal community also changed with algal bloom and its composition mainly contained Ascomycota, Basidiomycota and Chytridiomycota. Heat map profiling indicated that algal bloom had a more consistent effect upon fungal communities at genus level. Redundancy analysis (RDA) also demonstrated that the structure of water bacterial communities was significantly correlated to conductivity and ammonia nitrogen. Meanwhile, water temperature, Fe and ammonia nitrogen drive the dynamics of water fungal communities. The results from this work suggested that water bacterial and fungal communities changed significantly during the outbreak and decline of algal bloom in Zhoucun drinking water reservoir. Our study highlights the potential role of microbial diversity as a driving force for the algal bloom and biogeochemical cycling of reservoir ecology.

Dynamics of Bacterial and Fungal Communities during the Outbreak and Decline of an Algal Bloom in a Drinking Water Reservoir

PubMed Central

Zhang, Haihan; Jia, Jingyu; Chen, Shengnan; Huang, Tinglin; Wang, Yue; Zhao, Zhenfang; Feng, Ji; Hao, Huiyan; Li, Sulin; Ma, Xinxin

2018-01-01

The microbial communities associated with algal blooms play a pivotal role in organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in freshwater ecosystems. However, there have been few studies focused on unveiling the dynamics of bacterial and fungal communities during the outbreak and decline of algal blooms in drinking water reservoirs. To address this issue, the compositions of bacterial and fungal communities were assessed in the Zhoucun drinking water reservoir using 16S rRNA and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) gene Illumina MiSeq sequencing techniques. The results showed the algal bloom was dominated by Synechococcus, Microcystis, and Prochlorothrix. The bloom was characterized by a steady decrease of total phosphorus (TP) from the outbreak to the decline period (p < 0.05) while Fe concentration increased sharply during the decline period (p < 0.05). The highest algal biomass and cell concentrations observed during the bloom were 51.7 mg/L and 1.9×108 cell/L, respectively. The cell concentration was positively correlated with CODMn (r = 0.89, p = 0.02). Illumina Miseq sequencing showed that algal bloom altered the water bacterial and fungal community structure. During the bloom, the dominant bacterial genus were Acinetobacter sp., Limnobacter sp., Synechococcus sp., and Roseomonas sp. The relative size of the fungal community also changed with algal bloom and its composition mainly contained Ascomycota, Basidiomycota and Chytridiomycota. Heat map profiling indicated that algal bloom had a more consistent effect upon fungal communities at genus level. Redundancy analysis (RDA) also demonstrated that the structure of water bacterial communities was significantly correlated to conductivity and ammonia nitrogen. Meanwhile, water temperature, Fe and ammonia nitrogen drive the dynamics of water fungal communities. The results from this work suggested that water bacterial and fungal communities changed significantly during the outbreak and decline of algal bloom in Zhoucun drinking water reservoir. Our study highlights the potential role of microbial diversity as a driving force for the algal bloom and biogeochemical cycling of reservoir ecology. PMID:29463021

Nestedness across biological scales

PubMed Central

Marquitti, Flavia M. D.; Raimundo, Rafael L. G.; Sebastián-González, Esther; Coltri, Patricia P.; Perez, S. Ivan; Brandt, Débora Y. C.; Nunes, Kelly; Daura-Jorge, Fábio G.; Floeter, Sergio R.; Guimarães, Paulo R.

2017-01-01

Biological networks pervade nature. They describe systems throughout all levels of biological organization, from molecules regulating metabolism to species interactions that shape ecosystem dynamics. The network thinking revealed recurrent organizational patterns in complex biological systems, such as the formation of semi-independent groups of connected elements (modularity) and non-random distributions of interactions among elements. Other structural patterns, such as nestedness, have been primarily assessed in ecological networks formed by two non-overlapping sets of elements; information on its occurrence on other levels of organization is lacking. Nestedness occurs when interactions of less connected elements form proper subsets of the interactions of more connected elements. Only recently these properties began to be appreciated in one-mode networks (where all elements can interact) which describe a much wider variety of biological phenomena. Here, we compute nestedness in a diverse collection of one-mode networked systems from six different levels of biological organization depicting gene and protein interactions, complex phenotypes, animal societies, metapopulations, food webs and vertebrate metacommunities. Our findings suggest that nestedness emerge independently of interaction type or biological scale and reveal that disparate systems can share nested organization features characterized by inclusive subsets of interacting elements with decreasing connectedness. We primarily explore the implications of a nested structure for each of these studied systems, then theorize on how nested networks are assembled. We hypothesize that nestedness emerges across scales due to processes that, although system-dependent, may share a general compromise between two features: specificity (the number of interactions the elements of the system can have) and affinity (how these elements can be connected to each other). Our findings suggesting occurrence of nestedness throughout biological scales can stimulate the debate on how pervasive nestedness may be in nature, while the theoretical emergent principles can aid further research on commonalities of biological networks. PMID:28166284

Making space for the inner guide.

PubMed

Leijssen, Mia

2007-01-01

The therapeutic relationship is described as a curative factor in its own right as well as facilitative for other tasks. Experiential tasks that facilitate working on the intrapsychic, interpersonal, and existential domains are distinguished. Focusing is an intrapsychic task of paying attention to one's bodily felt experience. Clearing space helps clients finding a right distance for exploring their experience when they are too close or too distanced from their emotions. Interpersonal work takes the lead when maladaptive interactional patterns are hindering the relational life of the client. Metacommunicative feedback and interpersonal experiences in the therapeutic encounter act as an invitation to develop new ways of communicating. Existential processes are challenged when the client struggles with the givens of life. Finally, the "inner guide" found in accessing experiencing may involve an awareness of a transcendent dimension that leads one to spiritual growth. Vignettes from short term psychotherapy illustrate how this approach is established in practice.

Dispersal assembly of rain forest tree communities across the Amazon basin

PubMed Central

Lavin, Mathew; Torke, Benjamin M.; Twyford, Alex D.; Kursar, Thomas A.; Coley, Phyllis D.; Drake, Camila; Hollands, Ruth; Pennington, R. Toby

2017-01-01

We investigate patterns of historical assembly of tree communities across Amazonia using a newly developed phylogeny for the species-rich neotropical tree genus Inga. We compare our results with those for three other ecologically important, diverse, and abundant Amazonian tree lineages, Swartzia, Protieae, and Guatteria. Our analyses using phylogenetic diversity metrics demonstrate a clear lack of geographic phylogenetic structure, and show that local communities of Inga and regional communities of all four lineages are assembled by dispersal across Amazonia. The importance of dispersal in the biogeography of Inga and other tree genera in Amazonian and Guianan rain forests suggests that speciation is not driven by vicariance, and that allopatric isolation following dispersal may be involved in the speciation process. A clear implication of these results is that over evolutionary timescales, the metacommunity for any local or regional tree community in the Amazon is the entire Amazon basin. PMID:28213498

Dispersal assembly of rain forest tree communities across the Amazon basin.

PubMed

Dexter, Kyle G; Lavin, Mathew; Torke, Benjamin M; Twyford, Alex D; Kursar, Thomas A; Coley, Phyllis D; Drake, Camila; Hollands, Ruth; Pennington, R Toby

2017-03-07

We investigate patterns of historical assembly of tree communities across Amazonia using a newly developed phylogeny for the species-rich neotropical tree genus Inga We compare our results with those for three other ecologically important, diverse, and abundant Amazonian tree lineages, Swartzia , Protieae, and Guatteria Our analyses using phylogenetic diversity metrics demonstrate a clear lack of geographic phylogenetic structure, and show that local communities of Inga and regional communities of all four lineages are assembled by dispersal across Amazonia. The importance of dispersal in the biogeography of Inga and other tree genera in Amazonian and Guianan rain forests suggests that speciation is not driven by vicariance, and that allopatric isolation following dispersal may be involved in the speciation process. A clear implication of these results is that over evolutionary timescales, the metacommunity for any local or regional tree community in the Amazon is the entire Amazon basin.

A rational model for maximizing the effects of therapeutic relationship regulation in personality disorders with poor metacognition and over-regulation of affects.

PubMed

Dimaggio, Giancarlo; Carcione, Antonino; Salvatore, Giampaolo; Semerari, Antonio; Nicolò, Giuseppe

2010-11-01

The therapeutic relationship plays a key role in personality disorder (PD) psychotherapy. Some aspects of therapeutic relationship regulation appear important for treatment of PD clients, including those with constricted relational schemas, poor metacognition, and over-regulation of affects described here. AIM.: To propose a rational model for how and when to work on the therapeutic relationship by treating the underlying personality pathology. Formalize a step-by-step procedure for performing operations such as validation of clients' experiences, creating a sense of sharedness, assessing the quality of the therapeutic relationship in order to prevent and repair ruptures in the alliance, self-disclosing by the therapist, and metacommunication on the basis of clients' responses to treatment. We discuss the implications of this model for further research into the PD therapy process. 2010 The British Psychological Society.

A human-driven decline in global burned area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andela, N.

2017-12-01

Fire regimes are changing rapidly across the globe, driven by human land management and climate. We assessed long-term trends in fire activity using multiple satellite data sets and developed a new global data set on individual fire dynamics to understand the implications of changing fire regimes. Despite warming climate, burned area declined across most of the tropics, contributing to a global decline in burned area of 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area was largest in savannas and grasslands, where agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. In tropical forests, frequent fires for deforestation and agricultural management yield a sharp rise in fire activity with the expansion of settled land uses, but the use of fire decreases with increasing investment in agricultural areas in both savanna and forested landscapes. Disparate patterns of recent socieconomic development resulted in contrasting fire trends between southern Africa (increase) and South America (decrease). A strong inverse relationship between burned area and economic development in savannas and grasslands suggests that despite potential increasing fire risk from climate change, ongoing socioeconomic development will likely sustain observed declines in fire in these ecosystems during coming decades. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. The spatiotemporal distribution of fire size, duration, speed and direction of spread provided new insights in continental scale differences in fire regimes driven by human and climatic factors. Understanding these dynamics over larger scales is critical to achieve a balance between conservation of fire-dependent ecosystems and increasing agricultural production to support growing populations that will require careful management of fire activity in human-dominated landscapes.

Anti-Correlated Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarker Trajectories in Preclinical Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Gomar, Jesus J; Conejero-Goldberg, Concepcion; Davies, Peter; Goldberg, Terry E

2016-01-01

The earliest stage of preclinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) is defined by low levels of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) amyloid-β (Aβ42). However, covariance in longitudinal dynamic change of Aβ42 and tau in incipient preclinical AD is poorly understood. To examine dynamic interrelationships between Aβ42 and tau in preclinical AD. We followed 47 cognitively intact participants (CI) with available CSF data over four years in ADNI. Based on longitudinal Aβ42 levels in CSF, CI were classified into three groups: 1) Aβ42 stable with normal levels of Aβ42 over time (n = 15); 2) Aβ42 declining with normal Aβ42 levels at baseline but showing decline over time (n = 14); and 3) Aβ42 levels consistently abnormal (n = 18). In the Aβ42 declining group, suggestive of incipient preclinical AD, CSF phosphorylated tau (p-tau) showed a similar longitudinal pattern of increasing abnormality over time (p = 0.0001). Correlation between longitudinal slopes of Aβ42 and p-tau confirmed that both trajectories were anti-correlated (rho = -0.60; p = 0.02). Regression analysis showed that Aβ42 slope (decreasing Aβ42) predicted p-tau slope (increasing p-tau) (R2 = 0.47, p = 0.03). Atrophy in the hippocampus was predicted by the interaction of Aβ42 and p-tau slopes (p <  0.0001) only in this incipient preclinical AD group. In all groups combined, memory decline was predicted by p-tau. The evolution of Aβ42 and p-tau CSF biomarkers in CI subjects follows an anti-correlated trajectory, i.e., as Aβ42 declined, p-tau increased, and thus was suggestive of strong temporal coincidence. Rapid pathogenic cross-talk between Aβ42 and p-tau thus may be evident in very early stages of preclinical AD.

AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

EPA Science Inventory

Agriculture has contributed to loss of vertebrate biodiversity in many regions, including the U.S. Corn Belt. Amphibian populations, in particular, have experienced widespread and often inexplicable declines, range reductions, and extinctions. However, few attempts have been made...

Dynamic and heterogeneous effects of sibling death on children's outcomes.

PubMed

Fletcher, Jason; Vidal-Fernandez, Marian; Wolfe, Barbara

2018-01-02

This paper explores the effects of experiencing the death of a sibling on children's developmental outcomes. Recent work has shown that experiencing a sibling death is common and long-term effects are large. We extend understanding of these effects by estimating dynamic effects on surviving siblings' cognitive and socioemotional outcomes, as well as emotional and cognitive support by parents. Using the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (CNLSY79), we find large initial effects on cognitive and noncognitive outcomes that decline over time. We also provide evidence that the effects are larger if the surviving child is older and less prominent if the deceased child was either disabled or an infant, suggesting sensitive periods of exposure. Auxiliary results show that parental investments in the emotional support of surviving children decline following the death of their child.

Pre-Whaling Genetic Diversity and Population Ecology in Eastern Pacific Gray Whales: Insights from Ancient DNA and Stable Isotopes

PubMed Central

Alter, S. Elizabeth; Newsome, Seth D.; Palumbi, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ∼5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region) and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size. PMID:22590499

An exploratory analysis of alkaline phosphatase, lactate dehydrogenase, and prostate-specific antigen dynamics in the phase 3 ALSYMPCA trial with radium-223

PubMed Central

Sartor, O.; Coleman, R. E.; Nilsson, S.; Heinrich, D.; Helle, S. I.; O’Sullivan, J. M.; Vogelzang, N. J.; Bruland, Ø.; Kobina, S.; Wilhelm, S.; Xu, L.; Shan, M.; Kattan, M. W.; Parker, C.

2017-01-01

Background Baseline clinical variables are prognostic for overall survival (OS) in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). Their prognostic and predictive value with agents targeting bone metastases, such as radium-223, is not established. Patients and methods The radium-223 ALSYMPCA trial enrolled patients with CRPC and symptomatic bone metastases. Prognostic potential of baseline variables was assessed using Cox models. Percentage changes in biomarker levels from baseline were evaluated during the trial period; changes from baseline to week 12 were evaluated for association with OS and surrogacy. Results Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, total alkaline phosphatase (tALP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at baseline were associated with OS (P ≤ 0.0003) in the intent-to-treat population (radium-223, N = 614; placebo, N = 307). tALP declined from baseline within 4 weeks after beginning radium-223, by week 12 declining in 87% of radium-223 and 23% of placebo patients (P < 0.001). LDH declined in 51% and 34% (P = 0.003), whereas PSA declined in 27% and 14% (P = 0.160). Mean tALP change from baseline was 32.2% decrease with radium-223 and 37.2% increase with placebo. Radium-223 patients with tALP decline from baseline to week 12 (confirmed ≥3 weeks from week 12) had 55% lower risk of death (hazard ratio = 0.45; 95% CI 0.34–0.61) versus those with no confirmed tALP decline. Proportional treatment effect (PTE) values for tALP, LDH, and PSA changes from baseline at week 12 as OS surrogate markers were 0.34 (95% CI: 0–0.746), 0.07 (95% CI: 0–0.211), and 0 (95% CI: 0–0.082), respectively. Conclusions Significant tALP declines (versus placebo) occurred as early as 4 weeks after beginning radium-223 therapy. tALP or LDH declines at 12 weeks correlated with longer OS, but did not meet statistical surrogacy requirements. Dynamic changes in tALP and LDH during radium-223 treatments may be useful to monitor, but do not serve as surrogates for survival. PMID:28453701

Age-Related Decline in the Variation of Dynamic Functional Connectivity: A Resting State Analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Yuanyuan; Wang, Weiwei; Zhao, Xin; Sha, Miao; Liu, Ya'nan; Zhang, Xiong; Ma, Jianguo; Ni, Hongyan; Ming, Dong

2017-01-01

Normal aging is typically characterized by abnormal resting-state functional connectivity (FC), including decreasing connectivity within networks and increasing connectivity between networks, under the assumption that the FC over the scan time was stationary. In fact, the resting-state FC has been shown in recent years to vary over time even within minutes, thus showing the great potential of intrinsic interactions and organization of the brain. In this article, we assumed that the dynamic FC consisted of an intrinsic dynamic balance in the resting brain and was altered with increasing age. Two groups of individuals ( N = 36, ages 20-25 for the young group; N = 32, ages 60-85 for the senior group) were recruited from the public data of the Nathan Kline Institute. Phase randomization was first used to examine the reliability of the dynamic FC. Next, the variation in the dynamic FC and the energy ratio of the dynamic FC fluctuations within a higher frequency band were calculated and further checked for differences between groups by non-parametric permutation tests. The results robustly showed modularization of the dynamic FC variation, which declined with aging; moreover, the FC variation of the inter-network connections, which mainly consisted of the frontal-parietal network-associated and occipital-associated connections, decreased. In addition, a higher energy ratio in the higher FC fluctuation frequency band was observed in the senior group, which indicated the frequency interactions in the FC fluctuations. These results highly supported the basis of abnormality and compensation in the aging brain and might provide new insights into both aging and relevant compensatory mechanisms.

Transience after disturbance: Obligate species recovery dynamics depend on disturbance duration.

PubMed

Singer, Alexander; Johst, Karin

2017-06-01

After a disturbance event, population recovery becomes an important species response that drives ecosystem dynamics. Yet, it is unclear how interspecific interactions impact species recovery from a disturbance and which role the disturbance duration (pulse or press) plays. Here, we analytically derive conditions that govern the transient recovery dynamics from disturbance of a host and its obligately dependent partner in a two-species metapopulation model. We find that, after disturbance, species recovery dynamics depend on the species' role (i.e. host or obligately dependent species) as well as the duration of disturbance. Host recovery starts immediately after the disturbance. In contrast, for obligate species, recovery depends on disturbance duration. After press disturbance, which allows dynamics to equilibrate during disturbance, obligate species immediately start to recover. Yet, after pulse disturbance, obligate species continue declining although their hosts have already begun to increase. Effectively, obligate species recovery is delayed until a necessary host threshold occupancy is reached. Obligates' delayed recovery arises solely from interspecific interactions independent of dispersal limitations, which contests previous explanations. Delayed recovery exerts a two-fold negative effect, because populations continue declining to even smaller population sizes and the phase of increased risk from demographic stochastic extinction in small populations is prolonged. We argue that delayed recovery and its determinants -species interactions and disturbance duration - have to be considered in biodiversity management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evapotranspiration in the Nile Basin: Identifying dynamics and drivers, 2002–2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alemu, Henok; Kaptue, Armel T.; Senay, Gabriel; Wimberly, Michael C.; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

2015-01-01

Analysis of the relationship between evapotranspiration (ET) and its natural and anthropogenic drivers is critical in water-limited basins such as the Nile. The spatiotemporal relationships of ET with rainfall and vegetation dynamics in the Nile Basin during 2002–2011 were analyzed using satellite-derived data. Non-parametric statistics were used to quantify ET-rainfall interactions and trends across land cover types and subbasins. We found that 65% of the study area (2.5 million km2) showed significant (p < 0.05) positive correlations between monthly ET and rainfall, whereas 7% showed significant negative correlations. As expected, positive ET-rainfall correlations were observed over natural vegetation, mixed croplands/natural vegetation, and croplands, with a few subbasin-specific exceptions. In particular, irrigated croplands, wetlands and some forests exhibited negative correlations. Trend tests revealed spatial clusters of statistically significant trends in ET (6% of study area was negative; 12% positive), vegetation greenness (24% negative; 12% positive) and rainfall (11% negative; 1% positive) during 2002–2011. The Nile Delta, Ethiopian highlands and central Uganda regions showed decline in ET while central parts of Sudan, South Sudan, southwestern Ethiopia and northeastern Uganda showed increases. Except for a decline in ET in central Uganda, the detected changes in ET (both positive and negative) were not associated with corresponding changes in rainfall. Detected declines in ET in the Nile delta and Ethiopian highlands were found to be attributable to anthropogenic land degradation, while the ET decline in central Uganda is likely caused by rainfall reduction.

Vegetation dynamics and rainfall sensitivity of the Amazon

PubMed Central

Hilker, Thomas; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Tucker, Compton J.; Hall, Forrest G.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Wang, Yujie; Bi, Jian; Mendes de Moura, Yhasmin; Sellers, Piers J.

2014-01-01

We show that the vegetation canopy of the Amazon rainforest is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns and that reduction in rainfall since 2000 has diminished vegetation greenness across large parts of Amazonia. Large-scale directional declines in vegetation greenness may indicate decreases in carbon uptake and substantial changes in the energy balance of the Amazon. We use improved estimates of surface reflectance from satellite data to show a close link between reductions in annual precipitation, El Niño southern oscillation events, and photosynthetic activity across tropical and subtropical Amazonia. We report that, since the year 2000, precipitation has declined across 69% of the tropical evergreen forest (5.4 million km2) and across 80% of the subtropical grasslands (3.3 million km2). These reductions, which coincided with a decline in terrestrial water storage, account for about 55% of a satellite-observed widespread decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). During El Niño events, NDVI was reduced about 16.6% across an area of up to 1.6 million km2 compared with average conditions. Several global circulation models suggest that a rise in equatorial sea surface temperature and related displacement of the intertropical convergence zone could lead to considerable drying of tropical forests in the 21st century. Our results provide evidence that persistent drying could degrade Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics. PMID:25349419

Reference values for physical performance measures in the aging working population.

PubMed

Cote, Mark P; Kenny, Anne; Dussetschleger, Jeffrey; Farr, Dana; Chaurasia, Ashok; Cherniack, Martin

2014-02-01

The aim of this study was to determine reference physical performance values in older aging workers. Cross-sectional physical performance measures were collected for 736 manufacturing workers to assess effects of work and nonwork factors on age-related changes in musculoskeletal function and health. Participants underwent surveys and physical testing that included bioelectrical impedance analysis, range-of-motion measures, exercise testing, and dynamic assessment. Physical characteristics, such as blood pressure and body fat percentage, were comparable to published values. Dynamic and range-of-motion measurements differed from published normative results. Women had age-related decreases in cervical extension and lateral rotation. Older men had better spinal flexion than expected. Predicted age-related decline in lower-extremity strength and shoulder strength in women was not seen. Men declined in handgrip, lower-extremity strength, and knee extension strength, but not trunk strength, across age groups. There was no appreciable decline in muscle fatigue at the trunk, shoulder, and knee with aging for either gender, except for the youngest age group of women. Normative values may underestimate physical performance in "healthy" older workers, thereby underappreciating declines in less healthy older workers. Work may be preservative of function for a large group of selected individuals. A "healthy worker effect" may be greater for musculoskeletal disease and function than for heart disease and mortality. Clinicians and researchers studying musculoskeletal function in older workers can use a more specific set of reference values.

Dynamics of food availability, body condition and physiological stress response in breeding Black-legged Kittiwakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kitaysky, A.S.; Wingfield, J.C.; Piatt, John F.

1999-01-01

1. The seasonal dynamics of body condition (BC), circulating corticosterone levels (baseline, BL) and the adrenocortical response to acute stress (SR) were examined in long-lived Black-legged Kittiwakes, Rissa tridactyla, breeding at Duck (food-poor colony) and Gull (food-rich colony) Islands in lower Cook Inlet, Alaska. It was tested whether the dynamics of corticosterone levels reflect a seasonal change in bird physiological condition due to reproduction and/or variation in foraging conditions. 2. BC declined seasonally, and the decline was more pronounced in birds at the food-poor colony. BL and SR levels of corticosterone rose steadily through the reproductive season, and BL levels were significantly higher in birds on Duck island compared with those on Gull Island. During the egg-laying and chick-rearing stages, birds had lower SR on Duck Island than on Gull Island. 3. The results suggest that, in addition to a seasonal change in bird physiology during reproduction, local ecological factors such as food availability affect circulating levels of corticosterone and adrenal response to acute stress.

Detecting warning signs of trouble within population fluctuations: using capture-recapture modeling to uncover changes in population dynamics leading to declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Kendall, W.L.; Hines, J.E.; Hatfield, J.S.; Nisbet, I.C.T.

2004-01-01

An intensive mark-recapture/resighting program has been carried out on the Roseate Terns nesting at Falkner Island, Connecticut, since the late 1980s as part of a regional study of the metapopulation dynamics and ecology of the endangered Northwest Atlantic breeding population of this species. Substantial losses of tern eggs and chicks to predation at this colony site began in 1996 when at least five Black-crowned Night-Herons started nocturnal raids. This depredation has been a major factor in the reduction of productivity from an average of about 1.0 chicks/pair for the 10 years before night-heron predation began to as low as about 0.2 chicks/pair in 2002. Recent capture-recapture modelling analyses have detected other important impacts on the population dynamics of the Roseate Terns at this site including a reduction by about half in the 'development-of-residency' rates of first-time breeders, and a substantial decline in the local 'survival-and-fidelity' rates of experienced breeders believed due mostly to increased immigration rates to other colony sites.

Interrogating the dynamics between power, knowledge and pregnant bodies in amniocentesis decision making.

PubMed

Markens, Susan; Browner, Carole H; Mabel Preloran, H

2010-01-01

A common assumption is that women who decline prenatal testing distrust biomedicine and trust embodied/experiential knowledge sources, while women who accept testing trust biomedicine and distrust embodied/experiential sources. Another major assumption about prenatal testing utilisation is that women who are open to abortion will undergo prenatal testing while those who are opposed to abortion will decline testing. Yet, previous research has produced inconsistent findings as to what, if anything, distinguishes women who accept or decline the offer of prenatal diagnosis. Analysing interviews with 147 pregnant women, this paper questions these assumptions about the role of abortion views and pregnant women's relative trust in various knowledge sources on their decisions to accept or decline an amniocentesis offer after a positive result on an initial diagnostic screening. We found that pregnant women's attitudes toward different knowledge sources were equally, if not more, important factors than abortion views in affecting whether individual women accepted or declined amniocentesis. At the same time, our data reveal that the relationship between 'expert' and 'lay' knowledge sources is often complex and synergistic.

Sugar maple ecology and health: proceedings of an international symposium

Treesearch

Stephen B. Horsley; Robert P. Long; eds.

1999-01-01

Contains 28 papers and abstracts on sugar maple history and ecology; recent sugar maple declines; nutrient and belowground dynamics in northeastern forests; and interactions of forest health with biotic and abiotic stressors.

A neighborhood analysis of the consequences of Quercus suber decline for regeneration dynamics in Mediterranean forests.

PubMed

Ibáñez, Beatriz; Gómez-Aparicio, Lorena; Stoll, Peter; Ávila, José M; Pérez-Ramos, Ignacio M; Marañón, Teodoro

2015-01-01

In forests, the vulnerable seedling stage is largely influenced by the canopy, which modifies the surrounding environment. Consequently, any alteration in the characteristics of the canopy, such as those promoted by forest dieback, might impact regeneration dynamics. Our work analyzes the interaction between canopy neighbors and seedlings in Mediterranean forests affected by the decline of their dominant species (Quercus suber). Our objective was to understand how the impacts of neighbor trees and shrubs on recruitment could affect future dynamics of these declining forests. Seeds of the three dominant tree species (Quercus suber, Olea europaea and Quercus canariensis) were sown in six sites during two consecutive years. Using a spatially-explicit, neighborhood approach we developed models that explained the observed spatial variation in seedling emergence, survival, growth and photochemical efficiency as a function of the size, identity, health, abundance and distribution of adult trees and shrubs in the neighborhood. We found strong neighborhood effects for all the performance estimators, particularly seedling emergence and survival. Tree neighbors positively affected emergence, independently of species identity or health. Alternatively, seedling survival was much lower in neighborhoods dominated by defoliated and dead Q. suber trees than in neighborhoods dominated by healthy trees. For the two oak species, these negative effects were consistent over the three years of the experimental seedlings. These results indicate that ongoing changes in species' relative abundance and canopy trees' health might alter the successional trajectories of Mediterranean oak-forests through neighbor-specific impacts on seedlings. The recruitment failure of dominant late-successional oaks in the gaps opened after Q. suber death would indirectly favor the establishment of other coexisting woody species, such as drought-tolerant shrubs. This could lead current forests to shift into open systems with lower tree cover. Adult canopy decline would therefore represent an additional factor threatening the recruitment of Quercus forests worldwide.

Projected vegetation changes for the American Southwest: combined dynamic modeling and bioclimatic-envelope approach.

PubMed

Notaro, Michael; Mauss, Adrien; Williams, John W

2012-06-01

This study focuses on potential impacts of 21st century climate change on vegetation in the Southwest United States, based on debiased and interpolated climate projections from 17 global climate models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Among these models a warming trend is universal, but projected changes in precipitation vary in sign and magnitude. Two independent methods are applied: a dynamic global vegetation model to assess changes in plant functional types and bioclimatic envelope modeling to assess changes in individual tree and shrub species and biodiversity. The former approach investigates broad responses of plant functional types to climate change, while considering competition, disturbances, and carbon fertilization, while the latter approach focuses on the response of individual plant species, and net biodiversity, to climate change. The dynamic model simulates a region-wide reduction in vegetation cover during the 21st century, with a partial replacement of evergreen trees with grasses in the mountains of Colorado and Utah, except at the highest elevations, where tree cover increases. Across southern Arizona, central New Mexico, and eastern Colorado, grass cover declines, in some cases abruptly. Due to the prevalent warming trend among all 17 climate models, vegetation cover declines in the 21st century, with the greatest vegetation losses associated with models that project a drying trend. The inclusion of the carbon fertilization effect largely ameliorates the projected vegetation loss. Based on bioclimatic envelope modeling for the 21st century, the number of tree and shrub species that are expected to experience robust declines in range likely outweighs the number of species that are expected to expand in range. Dramatic shifts in plant species richness are projected, with declines in the high-elevation evergreen forests, increases in the eastern New Mexico prairies, and a northward shift of the Sonoran Desert biodiversity maximum.

Biomechanical analysis of the single‐leg decline squat

PubMed Central

Zwerver, J; Bredeweg, S W; Hof, A L

2007-01-01

Background The single‐leg squat on a 25° decline board has been described as a clinical assessment tool and as a rehabilitation exercise for patients with patellar tendinopathy. Several assumptions have been made about its working mechanism on patellar load and patellofemoral forces, but these are not substantiated by biomechanical evaluations. Aim To investigate knee moment and patellofemoral contact force as a function of decline angle in the single‐leg squat. Methods Five subjects performed single‐leg eccentric squats at decline angles of 0°, 5°, 10°, 15°, 20° and 25° (with/without a backpack of 10 kg), and 30° on a board that was placed over a forceplate. Kinematic and forceplate data were recorded by the Optotrak system. Joint moments of ankle, knee and hip were calculated by two‐dimensional inverse dynamics. Results Knee moment increased by 40% at decline angles of 15° and higher, whereas hip and ankle moment decreased. Maximum knee and ankle angles increased with steeper decline. With a 10 kg backpack at 25° decline, the knee moment was 23% higher than unloaded. Both patellar tendon and patellofemoral forces increased with higher decline angles, but beyond 60°, the patellofemoral force rose steeper than the tendon force. Conclusions All single‐leg squats at decline angles >15° result in 40% increase in maximum patellar tendon force. In knee flexions >60°, patellofemoral forces increase more than patellar tendon forces. Higher tendon load can be achieved by the use of a backpack with extra weight. PMID:17224441

Linking genetic and environmental factors in amphibian disease risk

PubMed Central

Savage, Anna E; Becker, Carlos G; Zamudio, Kelly R

2015-01-01

A central question in evolutionary biology is how interactions between organisms and the environment shape genetic differentiation. The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused variable population declines in the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis); thus, disease has potentially shaped, or been shaped by, host genetic diversity. Environmental factors can also influence both amphibian immunity and Bd virulence, confounding our ability to assess the genetic effects on disease dynamics. Here, we used genetics, pathogen dynamics, and environmental data to characterize L. yavapaiensis populations, estimate migration, and determine relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors in predicting Bd dynamics. We found that the two uninfected populations belonged to a single genetic deme, whereas each infected population was genetically unique. We detected an outlier locus that deviated from neutral expectations and was significantly correlated with mortality within populations. Across populations, only environmental variables predicted infection intensity, whereas environment and genetics predicted infection prevalence, and genetic diversity alone predicted mortality. At one locality with geothermally elevated water temperatures, migration estimates revealed source–sink dynamics that have likely prevented local adaptation. We conclude that integrating genetic and environmental variation among populations provides a better understanding of Bd spatial epidemiology, generating more effective conservation management strategies for mitigating amphibian declines. PMID:26136822

Predicting responses to climate change requires all life-history stages.

PubMed

Zeigler, Sara

2013-01-01

In Focus: Radchuk, V., Turlure, C. & Schtickzelle, N. (2013) Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies. Journal of Animal Ecology, 82, 275-285. Population-level responses to climate change depend on many factors, including unexpected interactions among life history attributes; however, few studies examine climate change impacts over complete life cycles of focal species. Radchuk, Turlure & Schtickzelle () used experimental and modelling approaches to predict population dynamics for the bog fritillary butterfly under warming scenarios. Although they found that warming improved fertility and survival of all stages with one exception, populations were predicted to decline because overwintering larvae, whose survival declined with warming, were disproportionately important contributors to population growth. This underscores the importance of considering all life history stages in analyses of climate change's effects on population dynamics. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Chronic sublethal stress causes bee colony failure.

PubMed

Bryden, John; Gill, Richard J; Mitton, Robert A A; Raine, Nigel E; Jansen, Vincent A A

2013-12-01

Current bee population declines and colony failures are well documented yet poorly understood and no single factor has been identified as a leading cause. The evidence is equivocal and puzzling: for instance, many pathogens and parasites can be found in both failing and surviving colonies and field pesticide exposure is typically sublethal. Here, we investigate how these results can be due to sublethal stress impairing colony function. We mathematically modelled stress on individual bees which impairs colony function and found how positive density dependence can cause multiple dynamic outcomes: some colonies fail while others thrive. We then exposed bumblebee colonies to sublethal levels of a neonicotinoid pesticide. The dynamics of colony failure, which we observed, were most accurately described by our model. We argue that our model can explain the enigmatic aspects of bee colony failures, highlighting an important role for sublethal stress in colony declines. © 2013 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

Chronic sublethal stress causes bee colony failure

PubMed Central

Bryden, John; Gill, Richard J; Mitton, Robert A A; Raine, Nigel E; Jansen, Vincent A A; Hodgson, David

2013-01-01

Current bee population declines and colony failures are well documented yet poorly understood and no single factor has been identified as a leading cause. The evidence is equivocal and puzzling: for instance, many pathogens and parasites can be found in both failing and surviving colonies and field pesticide exposure is typically sublethal. Here, we investigate how these results can be due to sublethal stress impairing colony function. We mathematically modelled stress on individual bees which impairs colony function and found how positive density dependence can cause multiple dynamic outcomes: some colonies fail while others thrive. We then exposed bumblebee colonies to sublethal levels of a neonicotinoid pesticide. The dynamics of colony failure, which we observed, were most accurately described by our model. We argue that our model can explain the enigmatic aspects of bee colony failures, highlighting an important role for sublethal stress in colony declines. PMID:24112478

A call to action for nurses: declining enrollment and the nursing shortage.

PubMed

Albaugh, J A

2001-10-01

Once again, nursing and health care face a crisis related to the continued decline in nursing school enrollment and the nursing shortage. This particular shortage seems to be especially problematic because of the increased number of aging baby boomers and the dwindling professional nurse pool. Nurses must work together to increase understanding and awareness of the opportunities in the profession and to resolve this crisis. There are specific actions nurses can take to improve the perception of nursing and renew interest in a dynamic field that is so crucial to society.

Demography of Symbiotic Nitrogen-Fixing Trees Explains Their Rarity and Successional Decline in Temperate Forests in the United States.

PubMed

Liao, Wenying; Menge, Duncan N L

2016-01-01

Symbiotic nitrogen (N) fixation is the major N input to many ecosystems. Although temperate forests are commonly N limited, symbiotic N-fixing trees ("N fixers") are rare and decline in abundance as succession proceeds-a challenging paradox that remains unexplained. Understanding demographic processes that underlie N fixers' rarity and successional decline would provide a proximate answer to the paradox. Do N fixers grow slower, die more frequently, or recruit less in temperate forests? We quantified demographic rates of N-fixing and non-fixing trees across succession using U.S. forest inventory data. We used an individual-based model to evaluate the relative contribution of each demographic process to community dynamics. Compared to non-fixers, N fixers had lower growth rates, higher mortality rates, and lower recruitment rates throughout succession. The mortality effect contributed more than the growth effect to N fixers' successional decline. Canopy and understory N fixers experienced these demographic disadvantages, indicating that factors in addition to light limitation likely contribute to N fixers' successional decline. We show that the rarity and successional decline of N-fixing trees in temperate forests is due more to their survival disadvantage than their growth disadvantage, and a recruitment disadvantage might also play a large role.

Demography of Symbiotic Nitrogen-Fixing Trees Explains Their Rarity and Successional Decline in Temperate Forests in the United States

PubMed Central

Liao, Wenying; Menge, Duncan N. L.

2016-01-01

Symbiotic nitrogen (N) fixation is the major N input to many ecosystems. Although temperate forests are commonly N limited, symbiotic N-fixing trees (“N fixers”) are rare and decline in abundance as succession proceeds–a challenging paradox that remains unexplained. Understanding demographic processes that underlie N fixers’ rarity and successional decline would provide a proximate answer to the paradox. Do N fixers grow slower, die more frequently, or recruit less in temperate forests? We quantified demographic rates of N-fixing and non-fixing trees across succession using U.S. forest inventory data. We used an individual-based model to evaluate the relative contribution of each demographic process to community dynamics. Compared to non-fixers, N fixers had lower growth rates, higher mortality rates, and lower recruitment rates throughout succession. The mortality effect contributed more than the growth effect to N fixers’ successional decline. Canopy and understory N fixers experienced these demographic disadvantages, indicating that factors in addition to light limitation likely contribute to N fixers’ successional decline. We show that the rarity and successional decline of N-fixing trees in temperate forests is due more to their survival disadvantage than their growth disadvantage, and a recruitment disadvantage might also play a large role. PMID:27780268

Fish community changes in the St. Louis River estuary, Lake Superior, 1989-1996: Is it ruffe or population dynamics?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bronte, Charles R.; Evrard, Lori M.; Brown, William P.; Mayo, Kathleen R.; Edwards, Andrew J.

1998-01-01

Ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernuus) have been implicated in density declines of native species through egg predation and competition for food in some European waters where they were introduced. Density estimates for ruffe and principal native fishes in the St. Louis River estuary (western Lake Superior) were developed for 1989 to 1996 to measure changes in the fish community in response to an unintentional introduction of ruffe. During the study, ruffe density increased and the densities of several native species decreased. The reductions of native stocks to the natural population dynamics of the same species from Chequamegon Bay, Lake Superior (an area with very few ruffe) were developed, where there was a 24-year record of density. Using these data, short- and long-term variations in catch and correlations among species within years were compared, and species-specific distributions were developed of observed trends in abundance of native fishes in Chequamegon Bay indexed by the slopes of densities across years. From these distributions and our observed trend-line slopes from the St. Louis River, probabilities of measuring negative change at the magnitude observed in the St. Louis River were estimated. Compared with trends in Chequamegon Bay, there was a high probability of obtaining the negative slopes measured for most species, which suggests natural population dynamics could explain, the declines rather than interactions with ruffe. Variable recruitment, which was not related to ruffe density, and associated density-dependent changes in mortality likely were responsible for density declines of native species.

Disturbance and the dynamics of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (1995-2009).

PubMed

Osborne, Kate; Dolman, Andrew M; Burgess, Scott C; Johns, Kerryn A

2011-03-10

Coral reef ecosystems worldwide are under pressure from chronic and acute stressors that threaten their continued existence. Most obvious among changes to reefs is loss of hard coral cover, but a precise multi-scale estimate of coral cover dynamics for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is currently lacking. Monitoring data collected annually from fixed sites at 47 reefs across 1300 km of the GBR indicate that overall regional coral cover was stable (averaging 29% and ranging from 23% to 33% cover across years) with no net decline between 1995 and 2009. Subregional trends (10-100 km) in hard coral were diverse with some being very dynamic and others changing little. Coral cover increased in six subregions and decreased in seven subregions. Persistent decline of corals occurred in one subregion for hard coral and Acroporidae and in four subregions in non-Acroporidae families. Change in Acroporidae accounted for 68% of change in hard coral. Crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster planci) outbreaks and storm damage were responsible for more coral loss during this period than either bleaching or disease despite two mass bleaching events and an increase in the incidence of coral disease. While the limited data for the GBR prior to the 1980's suggests that coral cover was higher than in our survey, we found no evidence of consistent, system-wide decline in coral cover since 1995. Instead, fluctuations in coral cover at subregional scales (10-100 km), driven mostly by changes in fast-growing Acroporidae, occurred as a result of localized disturbance events and subsequent recovery.

Soil microbial communities buffer physiological responses to drought stress in three hardwood species.

PubMed

Kannenberg, Steven A; Phillips, Richard P

2017-03-01

Trees possess myriad adaptations for coping with drought stress, but the extent to which their drought responses are influenced by interactions with soil microbes is poorly understood. To explore the role of microbes in mediating tree responses to drought stress, we exposed saplings of three species (Acer saccharum, Liriodendron tulipifera, and Quercus alba) to a four week experimental drought in mesocosms. Half of the pots were inoculated with a live soil slurry (i.e., a microbial inoculum derived from soils beneath the canopies of mature A. saccharum, L. tulipifera or Q. alba stands), while the other half of the pots received a sterile soil slurry. Soil microbes ameliorated drought stress in L. tulipifera by minimizing reductions in leaf water potential and by reducing photosynthetic declines. In A. saccharum, soil microbes reduced drought stress by lessening declines in leaf water potential, though these changes did not buffer the trees from declining photosynthetic rates. In Q. alba, soil microbes had no effects on leaf physiological parameters during drought stress. In all species, microbes had no significant effects on dynamic C allocation during drought stress, suggesting that microbial effects on plant physiology were unrelated to source-sink dynamics. Collectively, our results suggest that soil microbes have the potential to alter key parameters that are used to diagnose drought sensitivity (i.e., isohydry or anisohydry). To the extent that our results reflect dynamics occurring in forests, a revised perspective on plant hydraulic strategies that considers root-microbe interactions may lead to improved predictions of forest vulnerability to drought.

Mutator dynamics in sexual and asexual experimental populations of yeast.

PubMed

Raynes, Yevgeniy; Gazzara, Matthew R; Sniegowski, Paul D

2011-06-07

In asexual populations, mutators may be expected to hitchhike with associated beneficial mutations. In sexual populations, recombination is predicted to erode such associations, inhibiting mutator hitchhiking. To investigate the effect of recombination on mutators experimentally, we compared the frequency dynamics of a mutator allele (msh2Δ) in sexual and asexual populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Mutator strains increased in frequency at the expense of wild-type strains in all asexual diploid populations, with some approaching fixation in 150 generations of propagation. Over the same period of time, mutators declined toward loss in all corresponding sexual diploid populations as well as in haploid populations propagated asexually. We report the first experimental investigation of mutator dynamics in sexual populations. We show that a strong mutator quickly declines in sexual populations while hitchhiking to high frequency in asexual diploid populations, as predicted by theory. We also show that the msh2Δ mutator has a high and immediate realized cost that is alone sufficient to explain its decline in sexual populations. We postulate that this cost is indirect; namely, that it is due to a very high rate of recessive lethal or strongly deleterious mutation. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that msh2Δ also has unknown directly deleterious effects on fitness, and that these effects may differ between haploid asexual and sexual populations. Despite these reservations, our results prompt us to speculate that the short-term cost of highly deleterious recessive mutations can be as important as recombination in preventing mutator hitchhiking in sexual populations.

Pre- and long-term postoperative courses of hippocampus-associated memory impairment in epilepsy patients with antibody-associated limbic encephalitis and selective amygdalohippocampectomy.

PubMed

Hansen, Niels; Ernst, Leon; Rüber, Theodor; Widman, Guido; Becker, Albert J; Elger, Christian E; Helmstaedter, Christoph

2018-02-01

Limbic encephalitis (LE) is defined by mesiotemporal lobe structure abnormalities, seizures, memory, and psychiatric disturbances. This study aimed to identify the long-term clinical and neuropsychological outcome of selective amygdalohippocampectomy (sAH) in drug-resistant patients with temporal lobe epilepsy due to known or later diagnosed subacute LE not responding to immunotherapy associated with neuronal autoantibodies. In seven patients with temporal lobe epilepsy due to antibody positive LE (glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD65): n=5; voltage-gated potassium channel complex (VGKC), N-methyl d-aspartate receptor (NMDAR): n=1; Ma-2/Ta: n=1) sAH (6 left, 1 right) was performed. Those patients underwent repeated electroencephalography (EEG) recordings, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) volumetry of the amygdala and hippocampus, and neuropsychological examinations and were followed up for 6-7years on average. Verbal memory and figural memory were affected in 57% of patients at baseline and 71% at the last follow-up. At the last follow-up, 14% of the patients had declined in verbal memory and figural memory. We observed improved memory in 43% of patients regarding figural memory, but not in a single patient regarding verbal memory. Repeated evaluations across the individual courses reveal cognitive and MRI dynamics that appear to be unrelated to surgery and drug treatment. Three of the seven patients with LE with different antibodies (NMDAR: n=1, Ma-2/Ta: n=1 and GAD65: n=1) achieved persistent seizure freedom along with no accelerated memory decline after surgery. Two of the five GAD65-antibody patients positive with LE showed progressive memory decline and a long-term tendency to contralateral hippocampus atrophy. While memory demonstrated some decline in the long run, what is most important is that a progressive decline in memory is seldom found after sAH in patients with LE. Moreover, the dynamics in performance and MRI before and after surgery reveal disease dynamics independent of surgery. Selective amygdalohippocampectomy can lead to seizure freedom, but should be considered as a last resort treatment option for drug-resistant patients with temporal lobe epilepsy due to LE. Particular caution is recommended in patients with GAD65-LE. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Declining Return Migration from the United States to Mexico in the late-2000s Recession: A Research Note

PubMed Central

Rendall, Michael S.; Brownell, Peter; Kups, Sarah

2011-01-01

Researchers in the U.S. and Mexico have variously asserted that return migration from the U.S. to Mexico has increased substantially, remained unchanged, or declined slightly in response to the 2008–2009 U.S. recession and fall 2008 global financial crisis. The present study addresses this debate using microdata through 2009 from a large-scale, quarterly Mexican household survey, the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE), after first validating the ENOE against return migration estimates from a specialist demographic survey, the National Survey of Demographic Dynamics (ENADID). Declines in annual return migration flows of up to a third between 2007 and 2009 were seen among the predominantly labor-migrant groups of male migrants and all 18 to 40 year old migrants with less than a college education, and a decline in total return migration was seen in the fourth quarter of 2008 (immediately after the triggering of the global financial crisis) compared to the fourth quarter of 2007. PMID:21744184

Declining return migration from the United States to Mexico in the late-2000s recession: a research note.

PubMed

Rendall, Michael S; Brownell, Peter; Kups, Sarah

2011-08-01

Researchers in the United States and Mexico have variously asserted that return migration from the United States to Mexico increased substantially, remained unchanged, or declined slightly in response to the 2008-2009 U.S. recession and fall 2008 global financial crisis. The present study addresses this debate using microdata from 2005 through 2009 from a large-scale, quarterly Mexican household survey, the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE), after first validating the ENOE against return-migration estimates from a specialist demographic survey, the National Survey of Demographic Dynamics (ENADID). Declines in annual return-migration flows of up to a third between 2007 and 2009 were seen among the predominantly labor-migrant groups of male migrants and all 18- to 40-year-old migrants with less than a college education; and a decline in total return migration was seen in the fourth quarter of 2008 (immediately after the triggering of the global financial crisis) compared with the fourth quarter of 2007.

Age-Related Decline in the Variation of Dynamic Functional Connectivity: A Resting State Analysis

PubMed Central

Chen, Yuanyuan; Wang, Weiwei; Zhao, Xin; Sha, Miao; Liu, Ya’nan; Zhang, Xiong; Ma, Jianguo; Ni, Hongyan; Ming, Dong

2017-01-01

Normal aging is typically characterized by abnormal resting-state functional connectivity (FC), including decreasing connectivity within networks and increasing connectivity between networks, under the assumption that the FC over the scan time was stationary. In fact, the resting-state FC has been shown in recent years to vary over time even within minutes, thus showing the great potential of intrinsic interactions and organization of the brain. In this article, we assumed that the dynamic FC consisted of an intrinsic dynamic balance in the resting brain and was altered with increasing age. Two groups of individuals (N = 36, ages 20–25 for the young group; N = 32, ages 60–85 for the senior group) were recruited from the public data of the Nathan Kline Institute. Phase randomization was first used to examine the reliability of the dynamic FC. Next, the variation in the dynamic FC and the energy ratio of the dynamic FC fluctuations within a higher frequency band were calculated and further checked for differences between groups by non-parametric permutation tests. The results robustly showed modularization of the dynamic FC variation, which declined with aging; moreover, the FC variation of the inter-network connections, which mainly consisted of the frontal-parietal network-associated and occipital-associated connections, decreased. In addition, a higher energy ratio in the higher FC fluctuation frequency band was observed in the senior group, which indicated the frequency interactions in the FC fluctuations. These results highly supported the basis of abnormality and compensation in the aging brain and might provide new insights into both aging and relevant compensatory mechanisms. PMID:28713261

MONITORING DECLINING METAPOPULATIONS: INSIGHTS FROM A MODEL SIMULATION

EPA Science Inventory

Pond-breeding amphibians, host-specialist butterflies, and a variety of other organisms have been shown to exhibit population structures and dynamics consistent with metapopulation theory. In recent years large-scale biodiversity monitoring efforts have been initiated in many reg...

Integral control for population management.

PubMed

Guiver, Chris; Logemann, Hartmut; Rebarber, Richard; Bill, Adam; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Hodgson, Dave; Townley, Stuart

2015-04-01

We present a novel management methodology for restocking a declining population. The strategy uses integral control, a concept ubiquitous in control theory which has not been applied to population dynamics. Integral control is based on dynamic feedback-using measurements of the population to inform management strategies and is robust to model uncertainty, an important consideration for ecological models. We demonstrate from first principles why such an approach to population management is suitable via theory and examples.

Mitochondrial Dynamics: Coupling Mitochondrial Fitness with Healthy Aging.

PubMed

Sebastián, David; Palacín, Manuel; Zorzano, Antonio

2017-03-01

Aging is associated with a decline in mitochondrial function and the accumulation of abnormal mitochondria. However, the precise mechanisms by which aging promotes these mitochondrial alterations and the role of the latter in aging are still not fully understood. Mitochondrial dynamics is a key process regulating mitochondrial function and quality. Altered expression of some mitochondrial dynamics proteins has been recently associated with aging and with age-related alterations in yeast, Caenorhabditis elegans, mice, and humans. Here, we review the link between alterations in mitochondrial dynamics, aging, and age-related impairment. We propose that the dysregulation of mitochondrial dynamics leads to age-induced accumulation of unhealthy mitochondria and contributes to alterations linked to aging, such as diabetes and neurodegeneration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dinosaurs in decline tens of millions of years before their final extinction

PubMed Central

Sakamoto, Manabu; Benton, Michael J.; Venditti, Chris

2016-01-01

Whether dinosaurs were in a long-term decline or whether they were reigning strong right up to their final disappearance at the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event 66 Mya has been debated for decades with no clear resolution. The dispute has continued unresolved because of a lack of statistical rigor and appropriate evolutionary framework. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we apply a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to model the evolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction through time in Mesozoic dinosaurs, properly taking account of previously ignored statistical violations. We find overwhelming support for a long-term decline across all dinosaurs and within all three dinosaurian subclades (Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda), where speciation rate slowed down through time and was ultimately exceeded by extinction rate tens of millions of years before the K-Pg boundary. The only exceptions to this general pattern are the morphologically specialized herbivores, the Hadrosauriformes and Ceratopsidae, which show rapid species proliferations throughout the Late Cretaceous instead. Our results highlight that, despite some heterogeneity in speciation dynamics, dinosaurs showed a marked reduction in their ability to replace extinct species with new ones, making them vulnerable to extinction and unable to respond quickly to and recover from the final catastrophic event. PMID:27092007

Dinosaurs in decline tens of millions of years before their final extinction.

PubMed

Sakamoto, Manabu; Benton, Michael J; Venditti, Chris

2016-05-03

Whether dinosaurs were in a long-term decline or whether they were reigning strong right up to their final disappearance at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event 66 Mya has been debated for decades with no clear resolution. The dispute has continued unresolved because of a lack of statistical rigor and appropriate evolutionary framework. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we apply a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to model the evolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction through time in Mesozoic dinosaurs, properly taking account of previously ignored statistical violations. We find overwhelming support for a long-term decline across all dinosaurs and within all three dinosaurian subclades (Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda), where speciation rate slowed down through time and was ultimately exceeded by extinction rate tens of millions of years before the K-Pg boundary. The only exceptions to this general pattern are the morphologically specialized herbivores, the Hadrosauriformes and Ceratopsidae, which show rapid species proliferations throughout the Late Cretaceous instead. Our results highlight that, despite some heterogeneity in speciation dynamics, dinosaurs showed a marked reduction in their ability to replace extinct species with new ones, making them vulnerable to extinction and unable to respond quickly to and recover from the final catastrophic event.

Ecophysiology meets conservation: understanding the role of disease in amphibian population declines

PubMed Central

Blaustein, Andrew R.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.; Johnson, Pieter T. J.; Hoverman, Jason T.; Belden, Lisa K.; Bradley, Paul W.; Xie, Gisselle Y.

2012-01-01

Infectious diseases are intimately associated with the dynamics of biodiversity. However, the role that infectious disease plays within ecological communities is complex. The complex effects of infectious disease at the scale of communities and ecosystems are driven by the interaction between host and pathogen. Whether or not a given host–pathogen interaction results in progression from infection to disease is largely dependent on the physiological characteristics of the host within the context of the external environment. Here, we highlight the importance of understanding the outcome of infection and disease in the context of host ecophysiology using amphibians as a model system. Amphibians are ideal for such a discussion because many of their populations are experiencing declines and extinctions, with disease as an important factor implicated in many declines and extinctions. Exposure to pathogens and the host's responses to infection can be influenced by many factors related to physiology such as host life history, immunology, endocrinology, resource acquisition, behaviour and changing climates. In our review, we discuss the relationship between disease and biodiversity. We highlight the dynamics of three amphibian host–pathogen systems that induce different effects on hosts and life stages and illustrate the complexity of amphibian–host–parasite systems. We then review links between environmental stress, endocrine–immune interactions, disease and climate change. PMID:22566676

Behavioral and Neural Markers of Flexible Attention over Working Memory in Aging.

PubMed

Mok, Robert M; Myers, Nicholas E; Wallis, George; Nobre, Anna Christina

2016-04-01

Working memory (WM) declines as we age and, because of its fundamental role in higher order cognition, this can have highly deleterious effects in daily life. We investigated whether older individuals benefit from flexible orienting of attention within WM to mitigate cognitive decline. We measured magnetoencephalography (MEG) in older adults performing a WM precision task with cues during the maintenance period that retroactively predicted the location of the relevant items for performance (retro-cues). WM performance of older adults significantly benefitted from retro-cues. Whereas WM maintenance declined with age, retro-cues conferred strong attentional benefits. A model-based analysis revealed an increase in the probability of recalling the target, a lowered probability of retrieving incorrect items or guessing, and an improvement in memory precision. MEG recordings showed that retro-cues induced a transient lateralization of alpha (8-14 Hz) and beta (15-30 Hz) oscillatory power. Interestingly, shorter durations of alpha/beta lateralization following retro-cues predicted larger cueing benefits, reinforcing recent ideas about the dynamic nature of access to WM representations. Our results suggest that older adults retain flexible control over WM, but individual differences in control correspond to differences in neural dynamics, possibly reflecting the degree of preservation of control in healthy aging. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

Dinosaurs in decline tens of millions of years before their final extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto, Manabu; Benton, Michael J.

2016-05-01

Whether dinosaurs were in a long-term decline or whether they were reigning strong right up to their final disappearance at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event 66 Mya has been debated for decades with no clear resolution. The dispute has continued unresolved because of a lack of statistical rigor and appropriate evolutionary framework. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we apply a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to model the evolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction through time in Mesozoic dinosaurs, properly taking account of previously ignored statistical violations. We find overwhelming support for a long-term decline across all dinosaurs and within all three dinosaurian subclades (Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda), where speciation rate slowed down through time and was ultimately exceeded by extinction rate tens of millions of years before the K-Pg boundary. The only exceptions to this general pattern are the morphologically specialized herbivores, the Hadrosauriformes and Ceratopsidae, which show rapid species proliferations throughout the Late Cretaceous instead. Our results highlight that, despite some heterogeneity in speciation dynamics, dinosaurs showed a marked reduction in their ability to replace extinct species with new ones, making them vulnerable to extinction and unable to respond quickly to and recover from the final catastrophic event.

Acetyl-L-carnitine activates the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ coactivators PGC-1α/PGC-1β-dependent signaling cascade of mitochondrial biogenesis and decreases the oxidized peroxiredoxins content in old rat liver.

PubMed

Pesce, Vito; Nicassio, Luigi; Fracasso, Flavio; Musicco, Clara; Cantatore, Palmiro; Gadaleta, Maria Nicola

2012-04-01

The behavior of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ coactivators PGC-1α/PGC-β-dependent mitochondrial biogenesis signaling pathway, as well as the level of some antioxidant enzymes and proteins involved in mitochondrial dynamics in the liver of old rats before and after 2 months of acetyl-L-carnitine (ALCAR) supplementation, was tested. The results reveal that ALCAR treatment is able to reverse the age-associated decline of PGC-1α, PGC-1β, nuclear respiratory factor 1 (NRF-1), mitochondrial transcription factor A (TFAM), nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NADH) dehydrogenase subunit 1 (ND1), and cytochrome c oxidase subunit IV (COX IV) protein levels, of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) content, and of citrate synthase activity. Moreover, it partially reverses the mitochondrial superoxide dismutase 2 (SOD2) decline and reduces the cellular content of oxidized peroxiredoxins. These data demonstrate that ALCAR treatment is able to promote in the old rat liver a new mitochondrial population that can contribute to the cellular oxidative stress reduction. Furthermore, a remarkable decline of Drp1 and of Mfn2 proteins is reported here for the first time, suggesting a reduced mitochondrial dynamics in aging liver with no effect of ALCAR treatment.

Behavioral and Neural Markers of Flexible Attention over Working Memory in Aging

PubMed Central

Mok, Robert M.; Myers, Nicholas E.; Wallis, George; Nobre, Anna Christina

2016-01-01

Working memory (WM) declines as we age and, because of its fundamental role in higher order cognition, this can have highly deleterious effects in daily life. We investigated whether older individuals benefit from flexible orienting of attention within WM to mitigate cognitive decline. We measured magnetoencephalography (MEG) in older adults performing a WM precision task with cues during the maintenance period that retroactively predicted the location of the relevant items for performance (retro-cues). WM performance of older adults significantly benefitted from retro-cues. Whereas WM maintenance declined with age, retro-cues conferred strong attentional benefits. A model-based analysis revealed an increase in the probability of recalling the target, a lowered probability of retrieving incorrect items or guessing, and an improvement in memory precision. MEG recordings showed that retro-cues induced a transient lateralization of alpha (8–14 Hz) and beta (15–30 Hz) oscillatory power. Interestingly, shorter durations of alpha/beta lateralization following retro-cues predicted larger cueing benefits, reinforcing recent ideas about the dynamic nature of access to WM representations. Our results suggest that older adults retain flexible control over WM, but individual differences in control correspond to differences in neural dynamics, possibly reflecting the degree of preservation of control in healthy aging. PMID:26865653

Effects of climate and plant phenology on recruitment of moose at the southern extent of their range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monteith, Kevin L.; Klaver, Robert W.; Hersey, Kent R.; Holland, A. Andrew; Thomas, Timothy P.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

2015-01-01

Climate plays a fundamental role in limiting the range of a species, is a key factor in the dynamics of large herbivores, and is thought to be involved in declines of moose populations in recent decades. We examined effects of climate and growing-season phenology on recruitment (8–9 months old) of young Shiras moose (Alces alces shirasi) over three decades, from 18 herds, across a large geographic area encompassing much of the southern extent of their range. Recruitment declined in 8 of 18 herds during 1980–2009, whereas others did not exhibit a temporal trend (none showed a positive trend). During those three decades, seasonal temperatures increased, spring–summer precipitation decreased, and spring occurred earlier, became shorter in duration, and green-up occurred faster. Recruitment was influenced negatively by warm temperatures during the year before young were born, but only for herds with declining recruitment. Dry spring–summers of the previous year and rapid rates of spring green-up in the year of birth had similar negative influences across declining and stable herds. Those patterns indicate both direct (year t ) and delayed (year t−1) effects of weather and plant phenology on recruitment of young, which we hypothesize was mediated through effects on maternal nutritional condition. Suppressed nutrition could have been induced by (1) increased thermoregulatory costs associated with warming temperatures and (2) shortened duration of availability of high-quality forage in spring. Progressive reductions in net energetic gain for species that are sensitive to climate may continue to hamper individual fitness and population dynamics.

Simulating bioclogging effects on dynamic riverbed permeability and infiltration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newcomer, Michelle E.; Hubbard, Susan S.; Fleckenstein, Jan H.

Bioclogging in rivers can detrimentally impact aquifer recharge. This is particularly so in dry regions, where losing rivers are common, and where disconnection between surface water and groundwater (leading to the development of an unsaturated zone) can occur. Reduction in riverbed permeability due to biomass growth is a time-variable parameter that is often neglected, yet permeability reduction from bioclogging can introduce order of magnitude changes in seepage fluxes from rivers over short (i.e., monthly) timescales. To address the combined effects of bioclogging and disconnection on infiltration, we developed in this paper numerical representations of bioclogging processes within a one-dimensional, variablymore » saturated flow model representing losing-connected and losing-disconnected rivers. We tested these formulations using a synthetic case study informed with biological data obtained from the Russian River, California, USA. Our findings show that modeled biomass growth reduced seepage for losing-connected and losing-disconnected rivers. However, for rivers undergoing disconnection, infiltration declines occurred only after the system was fully disconnected. Before full disconnection, biologically induced permeability declines were not significant enough to offset the infiltration gains introduced by disconnection. The two effects combine to lead to a characteristic infiltration curve where peak infiltration magnitude and timing is controlled by permeability declines relative to hydraulic gradient gains. Biomass growth was found to hasten the onset of full disconnection; a condition we term ‘effective disconnection’. Finally, our results show that river infiltration can respond dynamically to bioclogging and subsequent permeability declines that are highly dependent on river connection status.« less

Simulating bioclogging effects on dynamic riverbed permeability and infiltration

DOE PAGES

Newcomer, Michelle E.; Hubbard, Susan S.; Fleckenstein, Jan H.; ...

2016-03-18

Bioclogging in rivers can detrimentally impact aquifer recharge. This is particularly so in dry regions, where losing rivers are common, and where disconnection between surface water and groundwater (leading to the development of an unsaturated zone) can occur. Reduction in riverbed permeability due to biomass growth is a time-variable parameter that is often neglected, yet permeability reduction from bioclogging can introduce order of magnitude changes in seepage fluxes from rivers over short (i.e., monthly) timescales. To address the combined effects of bioclogging and disconnection on infiltration, we developed in this paper numerical representations of bioclogging processes within a one-dimensional, variablymore » saturated flow model representing losing-connected and losing-disconnected rivers. We tested these formulations using a synthetic case study informed with biological data obtained from the Russian River, California, USA. Our findings show that modeled biomass growth reduced seepage for losing-connected and losing-disconnected rivers. However, for rivers undergoing disconnection, infiltration declines occurred only after the system was fully disconnected. Before full disconnection, biologically induced permeability declines were not significant enough to offset the infiltration gains introduced by disconnection. The two effects combine to lead to a characteristic infiltration curve where peak infiltration magnitude and timing is controlled by permeability declines relative to hydraulic gradient gains. Biomass growth was found to hasten the onset of full disconnection; a condition we term ‘effective disconnection’. Finally, our results show that river infiltration can respond dynamically to bioclogging and subsequent permeability declines that are highly dependent on river connection status.« less

Temporal, spatial, and body size effects on growth rates of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the Northwest Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjorndal, Karen A.; Schroeder, Barbara A.; Foley, Allen M.; Witherington, Blair E.; Bresette, Michael; Clark, David; Herren, Richard M.; Arendt, Michael D.; Schmid, Jeffrey R.; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Provancha, Jane A.; Hart, Kristen M.; Lamont, Margaret M.; Carthy, Raymond R.; Bolten, Alan B.

2013-01-01

In response to a call from the US National Research Council for research programs to combine their data to improve sea turtle population assessments, we analyzed somatic growth data for Northwest Atlantic (NWA) loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) from 10 research programs. We assessed growth dynamics over wide ranges of geography (9–33°N latitude), time (1978–2012), and body size (35.4–103.3 cm carapace length). Generalized additive models revealed significant spatial and temporal variation in growth rates and a significant decline in growth rates with increasing body size. Growth was more rapid in waters south of the USA (<24°N) than in USA waters. Growth dynamics in southern waters in the NWA need more study because sample size was small. Within USA waters, the significant spatial effect in growth rates of immature loggerheads did not exhibit a consistent latitudinal trend. Growth rates declined significantly from 1997 through 2007 and then leveled off or increased. During this same interval, annual nest counts in Florida declined by 43 % (Witherington et al. in Ecol Appl 19:30–54, 2009) before rebounding. Whether these simultaneous declines reflect responses in productivity to a common environmental change should be explored to determine whether somatic growth rates can help interpret population trends based on annual counts of nests or nesting females. Because of the significant spatial and temporal variation in growth rates, population models of NWA loggerheads should avoid employing growth data from restricted spatial or temporal coverage to calculate demographic metrics such as age at sexual maturity.

Effects of harvest and climate on population dynamics of northern bobwhites in south Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rolland, V.; Hostetler, J.A.; Hines, T.C.; Johnson, F.A.; Percival, H.F.; Oli, M.K.

2011-01-01

Context Hunting-related (hereafter harvest) mortality is assumed to be compensatory in many exploited species. However, when harvest mortality is additive, hunting can lead to population declines, especially on public land where hunting pressure can be intense. Recent studies indicate that excessive hunting may have contributed to the decline of a northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) population in south Florida. Aims This study aimed to estimate population growth rates to determine potential and actual contribution of vital rates to annual changes in population growth rates, and to evaluate the role of harvest and climatic variables on bobwhite population decline. Methods We used demographic parameters estimated from a six-year study to parameterise population matrix models and conduct prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses. Key results The stochastic population growth rate (?? S=0.144) was proportionally more sensitive to adult winter survival and survival of fledglings, nests and broods from first nesting attempts; the same variables were primarily responsible for annual changes in population growth rate. Demographic parameters associated with second nesting attempts made virtually no contribution to population growth rate. All harvest scenarios consistently revealed a substantial impact of harvest on bobwhite population dynamics. If the lowest harvest level recorded in the study period (i.e. 0.08 birds harvested per day per km2 in 2008) was applied, S would increase by 32.1%. Winter temperatures and precipitation negatively affected winter survival, and precipitation acted synergistically with harvest in affecting winter survival. Conclusions Our results suggest that reduction in winter survival due to overharvest has been an important cause of the decline in our study population, but that climatic factors might have also played a role. Thus, for management actions to be effective, assessing the contribution of primary (e.g. harvesting) but also secondary factors (e.g. climate) to population decline may be necessary. Implications Reducing hunting pressure would be necessary for the recovery of the bobwhite population at our study site. In addition, an adaptive harvest management strategy that considers weather conditions in setting harvest quota would help reverse the population decline further. ?? 2011 CSIRO.

Climate warming is associated with smaller body size and shorter lifespans in moose near their southern range limit.

PubMed

Hoy, Sarah R; Peterson, Rolf O; Vucetich, John A

2018-06-01

Despite the importance of body size for individual fitness, population dynamics and community dynamics, the influence of climate change on growth and body size is inadequately understood, particularly for long-lived vertebrates. Although temporal trends in body size have been documented, it remains unclear whether these changes represent the adverse impact of climate change (environmental stress constraining phenotypes) or its mitigation (via phenotypic plasticity or evolution). Concerns have also been raised about whether climate change is indeed the causal agent of these phenotypic shifts, given the length of time-series analysed and that studies often do not evaluate - and thereby sufficiently rule out - other potential causes. Here, we evaluate evidence for climate-related changes in adult body size (indexed by skull size) over a 4-decade period for a population of moose (Alces alces) near the southern limit of their range whilst also considering changes in density, predation, and human activities. In particular, we document: (i) a trend of increasing winter temperatures and concurrent decline in skull size (decline of 19% for males and 13% for females) and (ii) evidence of a negative relationship between skull size and winter temperatures during the first year of life. These patterns could be plausibly interpreted as an adaptive phenotypic response to climate warming given that latitudinal/temperature clines are often accepted as evidence of adaptation to local climate. However, we also observed: (iii) that moose with smaller skulls had shorter lifespans, (iv) a reduction in lifespan over the 4-decade study period, and (v) a negative relationship between lifespan and winter temperatures during the first year of life. Those observations indicate that this phenotypic change is not an adaptive response to climate change. However, this decline in lifespan was not accompanied by an obvious change in population dynamics, suggesting that climate change may affect population dynamics and life-histories differently. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimation of mussel population response to hydrologic alteration in a southeastern U.S. stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, J.T.; Wisniewski, J.M.; Shea, C.P.; Rhett, Jackson C.

2011-01-01

The southeastern United States has experienced severe, recurrent drought, rapid human population growth, and increasing agricultural irrigation during recent decades, resulting in greater demand for the water resources. During the same time period, freshwater mussels (Unioniformes) in the region have experienced substantial population declines. Consequently, there is growing interest in determining how mussel population declines are related to activities associated with water resource development. Determining the causes of mussel population declines requires, in part, an understanding of the factors influencing mussel population dynamics. We developed Pradel reverse-time, tag-recapture models to estimate survival, recruitment, and population growth rates for three federally endangered mussel species in the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Georgia. The models were parameterized using mussel tag-recapture data collected over five consecutive years from Sawhatchee Creek, located in southwestern Georgia. Model estimates indicated that mussel survival was strongly and negatively related to high flows during the summer, whereas recruitment was strongly and positively related to flows during the spring and summer. Using these models, we simulated mussel population dynamics under historic (1940-1969) and current (1980-2008) flow regimes and under increasing levels of water use to evaluate the relative effectiveness of alternative minimum flow regulations. The simulations indicated that the probability of simulated mussel population extinction was at least 8 times greater under current hydrologic regimes. In addition, simulations of mussel extinction under varying levels of water use indicated that the relative risk of extinction increased with increased water use across a range of minimum flow regulations. The simulation results also indicated that our estimates of the effects of water use on mussel extinction were influenced by the assumptions about the dynamics of the system, highlighting the need for further study of mussel population dynamics. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

Projected response of an endangered marine turtle population to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saba, Vincent S.; Stock, Charles A.; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián

2012-11-01

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on individual species and populations is essential for the stewardship of ecosystems and biodiversity. Critically endangered leatherback turtles in the eastern Pacific Ocean are excellent candidates for such an assessment because their sensitivity to contemporary climate variability has been substantially studied. If incidental fisheries mortality is eliminated, this population still faces the challenge of recovery in a rapidly changing climate. Here we combined an Earth system model, climate model projections assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a population dynamics model to estimate a 7% per decade decline in the Costa Rica nesting population over the twenty-first century. Whereas changes in ocean conditions had a small effect on the population, the ~2.5°C warming of the nesting beach was the primary driver of the decline through reduced hatching success and hatchling emergence rate. Hatchling sex ratio did not substantially change. Adjusting nesting phenology or changing nesting sites may not entirely prevent the decline, but could offset the decline rate. However, if future observations show a long-term decline in hatching success and emergence rate, anthropogenic climate mitigation of nests (for example, shading, irrigation) may be able to preserve the nesting population.

The dynamic relationships between economic status and health measures among working-age adults in the United States.

PubMed

Meraya, Abdulkarim M; Dwibedi, Nilanjana; Tan, Xi; Innes, Kim; Mitra, Sophie; Sambamoorthi, Usha

2018-04-18

We examine the dynamic relationships between economic status and health measures using data from 8 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1999 to 2013. Health measures are self-rated health (SRH) and functional limitations; economic status measures are labor income (earnings), family income, and net wealth. We use 3 different types of models: (a) ordinary least squares regression, (b) first-difference, and (c) system-generalized method of moment (GMM). Using ordinary least squares regression and first difference models, we find that higher levels of economic status are associated with better SRH and functional status among both men and women, although declines in income and wealth are associated with a decline in health for men only. Using system-GMM estimators, we find evidence of a causal link from labor income to SRH and functional status for both genders. Among men only, system-GMM results indicate that there is a causal link from net wealth to SRH and functional status. Results overall highlight the need for integrated economic and health policies, and for policies that mitigate the potential adverse health effects of short-term changes in economic status. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjorndal, Karen A.; Bolten, Alan B.; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S.; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A.G.; Santos, Armando J.B.; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C.; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E.; van Dam, Robert P.; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Crowder, Andrew; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A.; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M.; Foley, Allen M.; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R.; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A.; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M.; Boulon, Ralf H.; Collazo, Jaime; Wershoven, Robert; Hernández, Vicente Guzmán; Stringell, Thomas B.; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B.; Broderick, Annette C.; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta C.; Claydon, John A.B.; Metz, Tasha L.; Gordon, Amanda L.; Landry, Andre M.; Shaver, Donna J.; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J.; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Bethel, Thomas L.; Kenyon, Lory

2017-01-01

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles – hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta – exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – the strongest on record – combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -0.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = 0.74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region-wide collaborations.

Population dynamics of Lake Ontario lake trout during 1985-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brenden, Travis O.; Bence, James R.; Lantry, Brian F.; Lantry, Jana R.; Schaner, Ted

2011-01-01

Lake trout Salvelinus namaycush were extirpated from Lake Ontario circa 1950 owing to commercial and recreational fishing, predation by sea lampreys Petromyzon marinus, and habitat degradation. Since the 1970s, substantial efforts have been devoted to reestablishing a self-sustaining population through stocking, sea lamprey control, and harvest reduction. Although a stocking-supported population has been established, only limited natural reproduction has been detected. Since the 1990s, surveys have indicated a continuing decline in overall abundance despite fairly static stocking levels. We constructed a statistical catch-at-age model to describe the dynamics of Lake Ontario lake trout from 1985 to 2007 and explore what factor(s) could be causing the declines in abundance. Model estimates indicated that abundance had declined by approximately 76% since 1985. The factor that appeared most responsible for this was an increase in age-1 natural mortality rates from approximately 0.9 to 2.5 between 1985 and 2002. The largest source of mortality for age-2 and older fish was sea lamprey predation, followed by natural and recreational fishing mortality. Exploitation was low, harvest levels being uncertain and categorized by length rather than age. Accurate predictions of fishery harvest and survey catch per unit effort were obtained despite low harvest levels by using atypical data (e.g., numbers stocked as an absolute measure of recruitment) and a flexible modeling approach. Flexible approaches such as this might allow similar assessments for a wide range of lightly exploited stocks. The mechanisms responsible for declining age-1 lake trout survival are unknown, but the declines were coincident with an increase in the proportion of stocked fish that were of the Seneca strain and a decrease in the overall stocking rate. It is possible that earlier studies suggesting that Seneca strain lake trout would be successful in Lake Ontario are no longer applicable given the large ecosystem changes that have occurred subsequent to invasion by dreissenid mussels.

Antagonistic interactions between an invasive alien and a native coccinellid species may promote coexistence.

PubMed

Hentley, William T; Vanbergen, Adam J; Beckerman, Andrew P; Brien, Melanie N; Hails, Rosemary S; Jones, T Hefin; Johnson, Scott N

2016-07-01

Despite the capacity of invasive alien species to alter ecosystems, the mechanisms underlying their impact remain only partly understood. Invasive alien predators, for example, can significantly disrupt recipient communities by consuming prey species or acting as an intraguild predator (IGP). Behavioural interactions are key components of interspecific competition between predators, yet these are often overlooked invasion processes. Here, we show how behavioural, non-lethal IGP interactions might facilitate the establishment success of an invading alien species. We experimentally assessed changes in feeding behaviour (prey preference and consumption rate) of native UK coccinellid species (Adalia bipunctata and Coccinella septempunctata), whose populations are, respectively, declining and stable, when exposed to the invasive intraguild predator, Harmonia axyridis. Using a population dynamics model parameterized with these experimental data, we predicted how intraguild predation, accommodating interspecific behavioural interactions, might impact the abundance of the native and invasive alien species over time. When competing for the same aphid resource, the feeding rate of A. bipunctata significantly increased compared to the feeding in isolation, while the feeding rate of H. axyridis significantly decreased. This suggests that despite significant declines in the UK, A. bipunctata is a superior competitor to the intraguild predator H. axyridis. In contrast, the behaviour of non-declining C. septempunctata was unaltered by the presence of H. axyridis. Our experimental data show the differential behavioural plasticity of competing native and invasive alien predators, but do not explain A. bipunctata declines observed in the UK. Using behavioural plasticity as a parameter in a population dynamic model for A. bipunctata and H. axyridis, coexistence is predicted between the native and invasive alien following an initial period of decline in the native species. We demonstrate how empirical and theoretical techniques can be combined to understand better the processes and consequences of alien species invasions for native biodiversity. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Factors affecting population dynamics of leaf beetles in a subarctic region: The interplay between climate warming and pollution decline.

PubMed

Zvereva, Elena L; Hunter, Mark D; Zverev, Vitali; Kozlov, Mikhail V

2016-10-01

Understanding the mechanisms by which abiotic drivers, such as climate and pollution, influence population dynamics of animals is important for our ability to predict the population trajectories of individual species under different global change scenarios. We monitored four leaf beetle species (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) feeding on willows (Salix spp.) in 13 sites along a pollution gradient in subarctic forests of north-western Russia from 1993 to 2014. During a subset of years, we also measured the impacts of natural enemies and host plant quality on the performance of one of these species, Chrysomela lapponica. Spring and fall temperatures increased by 2.5-3°C during the 21-year observation period, while emissions of sulfur dioxide and heavy metals from the nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk decreased fivefold. However, contrary to predictions of increasing herbivory with climate warming, and in spite of discovered increase in host plant quality with increase in temperatures, none of the beetle species became more abundant during the past 20years. No directional trends were observed in densities of either Phratora vitellinae or Plagiodera versicolora, whereas densities of both C. lapponica and Gonioctena pallida showed a simultaneous rapid 20-fold decline in the early 2000s, remaining at very low levels thereafter. Time series analysis and model selection indicated that these abrupt population declines were associated with decreases in aerial emissions from the smelter. Observed declines in the population densities of C. lapponica can be explained by increases in mortality from natural enemies due to the combined action of climate warming and declining pollution. This pattern suggests that at least in some tri-trophic systems, top-down factors override bottom-up effects and govern the impacts of environmental changes on insect herbivores. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic.

PubMed

Bjorndal, Karen A; Bolten, Alan B; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A G; Santos, Armando J B; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B; Meylan, Peter A; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E; van Dam, Robert P; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M; Cherkiss, Michael S; Crowder, Andrew G; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M; Foley, Allen M; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M; Boulon, Ralf H; Collazo, Jaime A; Wershoven, Robert; Guzmán Hernández, Vicente; Stringell, Thomas B; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B; Broderick, Annette C; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta; Claydon, John A B; Metz, Tasha L; Gordon, Amanda L; Landry, Andre M; Shaver, Donna J; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J; Campbell, Cathi L; Lagueux, Cynthia J; Bethel, Thomas L; Kenyon, Lory

2017-11-01

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles-hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta-exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-the strongest on record-combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region-wide collaborations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effective Population Size Dynamics and the Demographic Collapse of Bornean Orang-Utans

PubMed Central

Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W.; Van Schaik, Carel P.; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

2012-01-01

Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200–2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess their relative contributions. PMID:23166666

Age-related decline in ovarian follicle stocks differ between chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and humans.

PubMed

Cloutier, Christina T; Coxworth, James E; Hawkes, Kristen

2015-02-01

Similarity in oldest parturitions in humans and great apes suggests that we maintain ancestral rates of ovarian aging. Consistent with that hypothesis, previous counts of primordial follicles in postmortem ovarian sections from chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) showed follicle stock decline at the same rate that human stocks decline across the same ages. Here, we correct that finding with a chimpanzee sample more than three times larger than the previous one, which also allows comparison into older ages. Analyses show depletion rates similar until about age 35, but after 35, the human counts continue to fall with age, while the change is much less steep in chimpanzees. This difference implicates likely effects on ovarian dynamics from other physiological systems that are senescing at different rates, and, potentially, different perimenopausal experience for chimpanzees and humans.

Dynamics of Teacher-Student Relationships: Stability and Change across Elementary School and the Influence on Children’s Academic Success

PubMed Central

Spilt, Jantine L.; Hughes, Jan N.; Wu, Jiun-Yu; Kwok, Oi-Man

2012-01-01

This study modeled teacher-student relationship trajectories throughout elementary school to predict gains in achievement in an ethnic-diverse sample of 657 academically at-risk students. Teacher reports of Warmth and Conflict were collected in grades 1 to 5. Achievement was tested in grade 1 and 6. For Conflict, low-stable (normative), low-increasing, high-declining, and high-stable trajectories were found. For Warmth, high-declining (normative) and low-increasing patterns were found. Children with early behavioral, academic, or social risks were under-represented in the normative trajectory groups. Chronic conflict was most strongly associated with under achievement. Rising Conflict but not declining Conflict coincided with underachievement. The probability of school failure increased as a function of the timing and length of time children were exposed to relational adversity. PMID:22497209

Non-stationary recruitment dynamics of rainbow smelt: the influence of environmental variables and variation in size structure and length-at-maturation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feiner, Zachary S.; Bunnell, David B.; Hook, Tomas O.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Warner, David M.; Collingsworth, Paris D.

2015-01-01

Fish stock-recruitment dynamics may be difficult to elucidate because of nonstationary relationships resulting from shifting environmental conditions and fluctuations in important vital rates such as individual growth or maturation. The Great Lakes have experienced environmental stressors that may have changed population demographics and stock-recruitment relationships while causing the declines of several prey fish species, including rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax). We investigated changes in the size and maturation of rainbow smelt in Lake Michigan and Lake Huron and recruitment dynamics of the Lake Michigan stock over the past four decades. Mean lengths and length-at-maturation of rainbow smelt generally declined over time in both lakes. To evaluate recruitment, we used both a Ricker model and a Kalman filter-random walk (KF-RW) model which incorporated nonstationarity in stock productivity by allowing the productivity term to vary over time. The KF-RW model explained nearly four times more variation in recruitment than the Ricker model, indicating the productivity of the Lake Michigan stock has increased. By accounting for this nonstationarity, we were able identify significant variations in stock productivity, evaluate its importance to rainbow smelt recruitment, and speculate on potential environmental causes for the shift. Our results suggest that investigating mechanisms driving nonstationary shifts in stock-recruit relationships can provide valuable insights into temporal variation in fish population dynamics.

Interannual Change Detection of Mediterranean Seagrasses Using RapidEye Image Time Series

PubMed Central

Traganos, Dimosthenis; Reinartz, Peter

2018-01-01

Recent research studies have highlighted the decrease in the coverage of Mediterranean seagrasses due to mainly anthropogenic activities. The lack of data on the distribution of these significant aquatic plants complicates the quantification of their decreasing tendency. While Mediterranean seagrasses are declining, satellite remote sensing technology is growing at an unprecedented pace, resulting in a wealth of spaceborne image time series. Here, we exploit recent advances in high spatial resolution sensors and machine learning to study Mediterranean seagrasses. We process a multispectral RapidEye time series between 2011 and 2016 to detect interannual seagrass dynamics in 888 submerged hectares of the Thermaikos Gulf, NW Aegean Sea, Greece (eastern Mediterranean Sea). We assess the extent change of two Mediterranean seagrass species, the dominant Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa, following atmospheric and analytical water column correction, as well as machine learning classification, using Random Forests, of the RapidEye time series. Prior corrections are necessary to untangle the initially weak signal of the submerged seagrass habitats from satellite imagery. The central results of this study show that P. oceanica seagrass area has declined by 4.1%, with a trend of −11.2 ha/yr, while C. nodosa seagrass area has increased by 17.7% with a trend of +18 ha/yr throughout the 5-year study period. Trends of change in spatial distribution of seagrasses in the Thermaikos Gulf site are in line with reported trends in the Mediterranean. Our presented methodology could be a time- and cost-effective method toward the quantitative ecological assessment of seagrass dynamics elsewhere in the future. From small meadows to whole coastlines, knowledge of aquatic plant dynamics could resolve decline or growth trends and accurately highlight key units for future restoration, management, and conservation. PMID:29467777

Interannual Change Detection of Mediterranean Seagrasses Using RapidEye Image Time Series.

PubMed

Traganos, Dimosthenis; Reinartz, Peter

2018-01-01

Recent research studies have highlighted the decrease in the coverage of Mediterranean seagrasses due to mainly anthropogenic activities. The lack of data on the distribution of these significant aquatic plants complicates the quantification of their decreasing tendency. While Mediterranean seagrasses are declining, satellite remote sensing technology is growing at an unprecedented pace, resulting in a wealth of spaceborne image time series. Here, we exploit recent advances in high spatial resolution sensors and machine learning to study Mediterranean seagrasses. We process a multispectral RapidEye time series between 2011 and 2016 to detect interannual seagrass dynamics in 888 submerged hectares of the Thermaikos Gulf, NW Aegean Sea, Greece (eastern Mediterranean Sea). We assess the extent change of two Mediterranean seagrass species, the dominant Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa , following atmospheric and analytical water column correction, as well as machine learning classification, using Random Forests, of the RapidEye time series. Prior corrections are necessary to untangle the initially weak signal of the submerged seagrass habitats from satellite imagery. The central results of this study show that P. oceanica seagrass area has declined by 4.1%, with a trend of -11.2 ha/yr, while C. nodosa seagrass area has increased by 17.7% with a trend of +18 ha/yr throughout the 5-year study period. Trends of change in spatial distribution of seagrasses in the Thermaikos Gulf site are in line with reported trends in the Mediterranean. Our presented methodology could be a time- and cost-effective method toward the quantitative ecological assessment of seagrass dynamics elsewhere in the future. From small meadows to whole coastlines, knowledge of aquatic plant dynamics could resolve decline or growth trends and accurately highlight key units for future restoration, management, and conservation.

The effects of habitat connectivity and regional heterogeneity on artificial pond metacommunities.

PubMed

Pedruski, Michael T; Arnott, Shelley E

2011-05-01

Habitat connectivity and regional heterogeneity represent two factors likely to affect biodiversity across different spatial scales. We performed a 3 × 2 factorial design experiment to investigate the effects of connectivity, heterogeneity, and their interaction on artificial pond communities of freshwater invertebrates at the local (α), among-community (β), and regional (γ) scales. Despite expectations that the effects of connectivity would depend on levels of regional heterogeneity, no significant interactions were found for any diversity index investigated at any spatial scale. While observed responses of biodiversity to connectivity and heterogeneity depended to some extent on the diversity index and spatial partitioning formula used, the general pattern shows that these factors largely act at the β scale, as opposed to the α or γ scales. We conclude that the major role of connectivity in aquatic invertebrate communities is to act as a homogenizing force with relatively little effect on diversity at the α or γ levels. Conversely, heterogeneity acts as a force maintaining differences between communities.

The gut microbiota of rural papua new guineans: composition, diversity patterns, and ecological processes.

PubMed

Martínez, Inés; Stegen, James C; Maldonado-Gómez, Maria X; Eren, A Murat; Siba, Peter M; Greenhill, Andrew R; Walter, Jens

2015-04-28

Although recent research revealed an impact of westernization on diversity and composition of the human gut microbiota, the exact consequences on metacommunity characteristics are insufficiently understood, and the underlying ecological mechanisms have not been elucidated. Here, we have compared the fecal microbiota of adults from two non-industrialized regions in Papua New Guinea (PNG) with that of United States (US) residents. Papua New Guineans harbor communities with greater bacterial diversity, lower inter-individual variation, vastly different abundance profiles, and bacterial lineages undetectable in US residents. A quantification of the ecological processes that govern community assembly identified bacterial dispersal as the dominant process that shapes the microbiome in PNG but not in the US. These findings suggest that the microbiome alterations detected in industrialized societies might arise from modern lifestyle factors limiting bacterial dispersal, which has implications for human health and the development of strategies aimed to redress the impact of westernization. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A unified model explains commonness and rarity on coral reefs.

PubMed

Connolly, Sean R; Hughes, Terry P; Bellwood, David R

2017-04-01

Abundance patterns in ecological communities have important implications for biodiversity maintenance and ecosystem functioning. However, ecological theory has been largely unsuccessful at capturing multiple macroecological abundance patterns simultaneously. Here, we propose a parsimonious model that unifies widespread ecological relationships involving local aggregation, species-abundance distributions, and species associations, and we test this model against the metacommunity structure of reef-building corals and coral reef fishes across the western and central Pacific. For both corals and fishes, the unified model simultaneously captures extremely well local species-abundance distributions, interspecific variation in the strength of spatial aggregation, patterns of community similarity, species accumulation, and regional species richness, performing far better than alternative models also examined here and in previous work on coral reefs. Our approach contributes to the development of synthetic theory for large-scale patterns of community structure in nature, and to addressing ongoing challenges in biodiversity conservation at macroecological scales. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The geography of spatial synchrony

Treesearch

Jonathan A. Walter; Lawrence W. Sheppard; Thomas L. Anderson; Jude H. Kastens; Ottar N. Bjørnstad; Andrew M. Liebhold; Daniel C. Reuman; Bernd Blasius

2017-01-01

Spatial synchrony, defined as correlated temporal fluctuations among populations, is a fundamental feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of synchrony remain poorly understood. Few studies have examined detailed geographical patterns of synchrony; instead most focus on how synchrony declines with increasing linear distance between locations, making the...

Economic efficiency of short-term versus long-term water rights buyouts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Because of the decline of the Ogallala Aquifer, water districts, regional water managers, and state water officers are becoming increasingly interested in conservation policies. This study evaluates both short-term and long-term water rights buyout policies. This research develops dynamic production...

Coupled chaotic fluctuations in a model of international trade and innovation: Some preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sushko, Iryna; Gardini, Laura; Matsuyama, Kiminori

2018-05-01

We consider a two-dimensional continuous noninvertible piecewise smooth map, which characterizes the dynamics of innovation activities in the two-country model of trade and product innovation proposed in [7]. This two-dimensional map can be viewed as a coupling of two one-dimensional skew tent maps, each of which characterizes the innovation dynamics in each country in the absence of trade, and the coupling parameter depends inversely on the trade cost between the two countries. Hence, this model offers a laboratory for studying how a decline in the trade cost, or globalization, might synchronize endogenous fluctuations of innovation activities in the two countries. In this paper, we focus on the bifurcation scenarios, how the phase portrait of the two-dimensional map changes with a gradual decline of the trade cost, leading to border collision, merging, expansion and final bifurcations of the coexisting chaotic attractors. An example of peculiar border collision bifurcation leading to an increase of dimension of the chaotic attractor is also presented.

Seasonal and diurnal gas exchange differences in ozone-sensitive common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca L.) in relation to ozone uptake.

PubMed

Bergweiler, Chris; Manning, William J; Chevone, Boris I

2008-03-01

Stomatal conductance and net photosynthesis of common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca L.) plants in two different soil moisture regimes were directly quantified and subsequently modeled over an entire growing season. Direct measurements captured the dynamic response of stomatal conductance to changing environmental conditions throughout the day, as well as declining gas exchange and carbon assimilation throughout the growth period beyond an early summer maximum. This phenomenon was observed in plants grown both with and without supplemental soil moisture, the latter of which should theoretically mitigate against harmful physiological effects caused by exposure to ozone. Seasonally declining rates of stomatal conductance were found to be substantial and incorporated into models, making them less susceptible to the overestimations of effective exposure that are an inherent source of error in ozone exposure indices. The species-specific evidence presented here supports the integration of dynamic physiological processes into flux-based modeling approaches for the prediction of ozone injury in vegetation.

Consequences of declining snow accumulation for water balance of mid-latitude dry regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

2012-01-01

Widespread documentation of positive winter temperature anomalies, declining snowpack and earlier snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere have raised concerns about the consequences for regional water resources as well as wildfire. A topic that has not been addressed with respect to declining snowpack is effects on ecosystem water balance. Changes in water balance dynamics will be particularly pronounced at low elevations of mid-latitude dry regions because these areas will be the first to be affected by declining snow as a result of rising temperatures. As a model system, we used simulation experiments to investigate big sagebrush ecosystems that dominate a large fraction of the semiarid western United States. Our results suggest that effects on future ecosystem water balance will increase along a climatic gradient from dry, warm and snow-poor to wet, cold and snow-rich. Beyond a threshold within this climatic gradient, predicted consequences for vegetation switched from no change to increasing transpiration. Responses were sensitive to uncertainties in climatic prediction; particularly, a shift of precipitation to the colder season could reduce impacts of a warmer and snow-poorer future, depending on the degree to which ecosystem phenology tracks precipitation changes. Our results suggest that big sagebrush and other similar semiarid ecosystems could decrease in viability or disappear in dry to medium areas and likely increase only in the snow-richest areas, i.e. higher elevations and higher latitudes. Unlike cold locations at high elevations or in the arctic, ecosystems at low elevations respond in a different and complex way to future conditions because of opposing effects of increasing water-limitation and a longer snow-free season. Outcomes of such nonlinear interactions for future ecosystems will likely include changes in plant composition and productivity, dynamics of water balance, and availability of water resources.

Dynamic catch trends in the history of recreational spearfishing in Australia.

PubMed

Young, Matthew A L; Foale, Simon; Bellwood, David R

2015-06-01

The sustained decline in marine fisheries worldwide underscores the need to understand and monitor fisheries trends and fisher behavior. Recreational fisheries are unique in that they are not subject to the typical drivers that influence commercial and artisanal fisheries (e.g., markets or food security). Nevertheless, although exposed to a different set of drivers (i.e., interest or relaxation), recreational fisheries can contribute to fishery declines. Recreational fisheries are also difficult to assess due to an absence of past monitoring and traditional fisheries data. Therefore, we utilized a nontraditional data source (a chronology of spearfishing publications) to document historical trends in recreational spearfishing in Australia between 1952 and 2009. We extracted data on reported fish captures, advertising, and spearfisher commentary and used regression models and ordination analyses to assess historical change. The proportion of coastal fish captures reported declined approximately 80%, whereas the proportion of coral reef and pelagic fish reports increased 1750% and 560%, respectively. Catch composition shifted markedly from coastal temperate or subtropical fishes during the 1950s to 1970s to coral reef and pelagic species in the 1990s to 2000s. Advertising data and commentary by spearfishers indicated that pelagic fish species became desired targets. The mean weight of trophy coral reef fishes also declined significantly over the study period (from approximately 30-8 kg). Recreational fishing presents a highly dynamic social-ecological interface and a challenge for management. Our results emphasize the need for regulatory agencies to work closely with recreational fishing bodies to observe fisher behavior, detect shifts in target species or fishing intensity, and adapt regulatory measures. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Why do forest products become less available?A pan-tropical comparison of drivers of forest-resource degradation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermans-Neumann, Kathleen; Gerstner, Katharina; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R.; Herold, Martin; Seppelt, Ralf; Wunder, Sven

2016-12-01

Forest products provide an important source of income and wellbeing for rural smallholder communities across the tropics. Although tropical forest products frequently become over-exploited, only few studies explicitly address the dynamics of degradation in response to socio-economic drivers. Our study addresses this gap by analyzing the factors driving changes in tropical forest products in the perception of rural smallholder communities. Using the poverty and environment network global dataset, we studied recently perceived trends of forest product availability considering firewood, charcoal, timber, food, medicine, forage and other forest products. We looked at a pan-tropical sample of 233 villages with forest access. Our results show that 90% of the villages experienced declining availability of forest resources over the last five years according to the informants. Timber and fuelwood together with forest foods were featured as the most strongly affected, though with marked differences across continents. In contrast, availability of at least one main forest product was perceived to increase in only 39% of the villages. Furthermore, the growing local use of forest resources is seen as the main culprit for the decline. In villages with both growing forest resource use and immigration—vividly illustrating demographic pressures—the strongest forest resources degradation was observed. Conversely, villages with little or no population growth and a decreased use of forest resources were most likely to see significant forest-resource increases. Further, villages are less likely to perceive resource declines when local communities own a significant share of forest area. Our results thus suggest that perceived resource declines have only exceptionally triggered adaptations in local resource-use and management patterns that would effectively deal with scarcity. Hence, at the margin this supports neo-Malthusian over neo-Boserupian explanations of local resource-use dynamics.

Land use and carbon dynamics in the southeastern United States from 1992 to 2050

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Sohl, Terry L.; Young, Claudia; Werner, Jeremy M.

2013-01-01

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) plays an important role in determining the spatial distribution, magnitude, and temporal change of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. However, the impacts of LUCC are not well understood and quantified over large areas. The goal of this study was to quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon dynamics in various terrestrial ecosystems in the southeastern United States from 1992 to 2050 using a process-based modeling system and then to investigate the impacts of LUCC. Spatial LUCC information was reconstructed and projected using the FOREcasting SCEnarios of future land cover (FORE-SCE) model according to information derived from Landsat observations and other sources. Results indicated that urban expansion (from 3.7% in 1992 to 9.2% in 2050) was expected to be the primary driver for other land cover changes in the region, leading to various declines in forest, cropland, and hay/pasture. The region was projected to be a carbon sink of 60.4 gC m−2 yr−1 on average during the study period, primarily due to the legacy impacts of large-scale conversion of cropland to forest that happened since the 1950s. Nevertheless, the regional carbon sequestration rate was expected to decline because of the slowing down of carbon accumulation in aging forests and the decline of forest area.

Millennial-scale faunal record reveals differential resilience of European large mammals to human impacts across the Holocene.

PubMed

Crees, Jennifer J; Carbone, Chris; Sommer, Robert S; Benecke, Norbert; Turvey, Samuel T

2016-03-30

The use of short-term indicators for understanding patterns and processes of biodiversity loss can mask longer-term faunal responses to human pressures. We use an extensive database of approximately 18,700 mammalian zooarchaeological records for the last 11,700 years across Europe to reconstruct spatio-temporal dynamics of Holocene range change for 15 large-bodied mammal species. European mammals experienced protracted, non-congruent range losses, with significant declines starting in some species approximately 3000 years ago and continuing to the present, and with the timing, duration and magnitude of declines varying individually between species. Some European mammals became globally extinct during the Holocene, whereas others experienced limited or no significant range change. These findings demonstrate the relatively early onset of prehistoric human impacts on postglacial biodiversity, and mirror species-specific patterns of mammalian extinction during the Late Pleistocene. Herbivores experienced significantly greater declines than carnivores, revealing an important historical extinction filter that informs our understanding of relative resilience and vulnerability to human pressures for different taxa. We highlight the importance of large-scale, long-term datasets for understanding complex protracted extinction processes, although the dynamic pattern of progressive faunal depletion of European mammal assemblages across the Holocene challenges easy identification of 'static' past baselines to inform current-day environmental management and restoration. © 2016 The Author(s).

Compact or spread? A quantitative spatial model of urban areas in Europe since 1990

PubMed Central

Haase, Dagmar; Haase, Annegret

2018-01-01

Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (de)densification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe. PMID:29489851

Compact or spread? A quantitative spatial model of urban areas in Europe since 1990.

PubMed

Wolff, Manuel; Haase, Dagmar; Haase, Annegret

2018-01-01

Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (de)densification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe.

Morphologies of omega band auroras

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Natsuo; Yukimatu, Akira Sessai; Tanaka, Yoshimasa; Hori, Tomoaki

2017-08-01

We examined the morphological signatures of 315 omega band aurora events observed using the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorm ground-based all-sky imager network over a period of 8 years. We find that omega bands can be classified into the following three subtypes: (1) classical (O-type) omega bands, (2) torch or tongue (T-type) omega bands, and (3) combinations of classical and torch or tongue (O/T-type) omega bands. The statistical results show that T-type bands occur the most frequently (45%), followed by O/T-type bands (35%) and O-type bands (18%). We also examined the morphologies of the omega bands during their formation, from the growth period to the declining period through the maximum period. Interestingly, the omega bands are not stable, but rather exhibit dynamic changes in shape, intensity, and motion. They grow from small-scale bumps (seeds) at the poleward boundary of preexisting east-west-aligned auroras, rather than via the rotation or shear motion of preexisting east-west-aligned auroras, and do not exhibit any shear motion during the periods of auroral activity growth. Furthermore, the auroral luminosity is observed to increase during the declining period, and the total time from the start of the growth period to the end of the declining period is found to be about 20 min. Such dynamical signatures may be important in determining the mechanism responsible for omega band formation.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibian populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

2010-01-01

As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

Birth of the cool: a two-centuries decline in emotional expression in Anglophone fiction.

PubMed

Morin, Olivier; Acerbi, Alberto

2017-12-01

The presence of emotional words and content in stories has been shown to enhance a story's memorability, and its cultural success. Yet, recent cultural trends run in the opposite direction. Using the Google Books corpus, coupled with two metadata-rich corpora of Anglophone fiction books, we show a decrease in emotionality in English-speaking literature starting plausibly in the nineteenth century. We show that this decrease cannot be explained by changes unrelated to emotionality (such as demographic dynamics concerning age or gender balance, changes in vocabulary richness, or changes in the prevalence of literary genres), and that, in our three corpora, the decrease is driven almost entirely by a decline in the proportion of positive emotion-related words, while the frequency of negative emotion-related words shows little if any decline. Consistently with previous studies, we also find a link between ageing and negative emotionality at the individual level.

Utilizing remote sensing of thematic mapper data to improve our understanding of estuarine processes and their influence on the productivity of estuarine-dependent fisheries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Browder, Joan A.; May, L. Nelson; Rosenthal, Alan; Baumann, Robert H.; Gosselink, James G.

1988-01-01

The land-water interface of coastal marshes may influence the production of estuarine-dependent fisheries more than the area of these marshes. To test this hypothesis, a spatial model was created to explore the dynamic relationship between marshland-water interface and level of disintegration in the decaying coastal marshes of Louisiana's Barataria, Terrebonne, and Timbalier basins. Calibrating the model with Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery, a parabolic relationship was found between land-water interface and marsh disintegration. Aggregated simulation data suggest that interface in the study area will soon reach its maximum and then decline. A statistically significant positive linear relationship was found between brown shrimp catch and total interface length over the past 28 years. This relationship suggests that shrimp yields will decline when interface declines, possibly beginning about 1995.

Decline of recent seabirds inferred from a composite 1000-year record of population dynamics

PubMed Central

Xu, Liqiang; Liu, Xiaodong; Wu, Libin; Sun, Liguang; Zhao, Jinjun; Chen, Lin

2016-01-01

Based on three ornithogenic sediment profiles and seabird subfossils therein from the Xisha Islands, South China Sea, the relative population size of seabirds over the past 1000 years was reconstructed using reflectance spectrum. Here we present an apparent increase and subsequent decline of seabirds on these islands in the South China Sea. Seabird populations peaked during the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1400–1850 AD), implying that the cool climate during the LIA appears to have been more favorable to seabirds on the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea. Climate change partly explains the recent decrease in seabird populations over the past 150 years, but the significant decline and almost complete disappearance thereof on most of the Xisha Islands is probably attributable to human disturbance. Our study reveals the increasing impact of anthropogenic activities on seabird population in recent times. PMID:27748366

Identifying species conservation strategies to reduce disease-associated declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Converse, Sarah J.; Muths, Erin L.; Crockett, Harry J.; Mosher, Brittany A.; Bailey, Larissa L.

2018-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a salient threat to many animal taxa, causing local and global extinctions, altering communities and ecosystem function. The EID chytridiomycosis is a prominent driver of amphibian declines, which is caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). To guide conservation policy, we developed a predictive decision-analytic model that combines empirical knowledge of host-pathogen metapopulation dynamics with expert judgment regarding effects of management actions, to select from potential conservation strategies. We apply our approach to a boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) and Bd system, identifying optimal strategies that balance tradeoffs in maximizing toad population persistence and landscape-level distribution, while considering costs. The most robust strategy is expected to reduce the decline of toad breeding sites from 53% to 21% over 50 years. Our findings are incorporated into management policy to guide conservation planning. Our online modeling application provides a template for managers of other systems challenged by EIDs.

Iron-mediated soil carbon response to water-table decline in an alpine wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yiyun; Wang, Hao; He, Jin-Sheng; Feng, Xiaojuan

2017-06-01

The tremendous reservoir of soil organic carbon (SOC) in wetlands is being threatened by water-table decline (WTD) globally. However, the SOC response to WTD remains highly uncertain. Here we examine the under-investigated role of iron (Fe) in mediating soil enzyme activity and lignin stabilization in a mesocosm WTD experiment in an alpine wetland. In contrast to the classic `enzyme latch' theory, phenol oxidative activity is mainly controlled by ferrous iron [Fe(II)] and declines with WTD, leading to an accumulation of dissolvable aromatics and a reduced activity of hydrolytic enzyme. Furthermore, using dithionite to remove Fe oxides, we observe a significant increase of Fe-protected lignin phenols in the air-exposed soils. Fe oxidation hence acts as an `iron gate' against the `enzyme latch' in regulating wetland SOC dynamics under oxygen exposure. This newly recognized mechanism may be key to predicting wetland soil carbon storage with intensified WTD in a changing climate.

The biological standard of living and mortality in Central Italy at the beginning of the 19th century.

PubMed

Coppola, Michela

2013-12-01

The biological standard of living in Central Italy at the beginning of the 19th century is analyzed using newly collected data on the height of recruits in the army of the Papal States. The results reveal a decline in height for the cohorts born under French rule (1796-1815). Although this trend was common to many parts of Europe, the estimated magnitude of the decline suggests a worsening of the biological standard of living of the working classes in the Papal States even relative to that of other countries. Despite the differences in the economic systems within the Papal States, no significant geographical variation in height has been found: even the most dynamic and advanced regions experienced a dramatic height decline. Mortality also increased during the period under consideration. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Dynamics of Son Preference, Technology Diffusion, and Fertility Decline Underlying Distorted Sex Ratios at Birth: A Simulation Approach.

PubMed

Kashyap, Ridhi; Villavicencio, Francisco

2016-10-01

We present a micro-founded simulation model that formalizes the "ready, willing, and able" framework, originally used to explain historical fertility decline, to the practice of prenatal sex selection. The model generates sex ratio at birth (SRB) distortions from the bottom up and attempts to quantify plausible levels, trends, and interactions of son preference, technology diffusion, and fertility decline that underpin SRB trajectories at the macro level. Calibrating our model for South Korea, we show how even as the proportion with a preference for sons was declining, SRB distortions emerged due to rapid diffusion of prenatal sex determination technology combined with small but growing propensities to abort at low birth parities. Simulations reveal that relatively low levels of son preference (about 20 % to 30 % wanting one son) can result in skewed SRB levels if technology diffuses early and steadily, and if fertility falls rapidly to encourage sex-selective abortion at low parities. Model sensitivity analysis highlights how the shape of sex ratio trajectories is particularly sensitive to the timing and speed of prenatal sex-determination technology diffusion. The maximum SRB levels reached in a population are influenced by how the readiness to abort rises as a function of the fertility decline.

Factors that influence vital rates of Seaside and Saltmarsh sparrows in coastal New Jersey, USA

EPA Science Inventory

As salt marsh habitat continues to disappear, understanding the factors that influence salt marsh breeding bird population dynamics is an important step towards managing declining wildlife populations. Using five years (2011 2015) of demographic data, we evaluated and compared S...

Stand Dynamics of Coast Redwood/Tanoak Forests Following Tanoak Decline

Treesearch

Kristen M. Waring; Kevin L. O' Hara

2007-01-01

Current threats to North American forests increasingly include exotic tree pathogens that cause extensive mortality. In California, tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus) mortality has increased rapidly since 1995, due to Phytophthora ramorum, believed to be an introduced pathogen. Tanoak frequently grows as a major component of redwood...

Population: A Lively Introduction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McFalls, Joseph A., Jr.

1991-01-01

The study of demography must begin with an understanding of the three sources of population changes: fertility, mortality, and migration. This paper leads prospective demographers--or anyone interested in population--through the dynamics of these three variables, introducing them to the forces that cause populations to grow or decline, and that…

Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor.

PubMed

Kroll, Andrew J; Jones, Jay E; Stringer, Angela B; Meekins, Douglas J

2016-01-01

Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in population trends is a critical aspect of successful management of imperiled species. We evaluated territory occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), California, USA, 1990-2014. The study area possessed two unique aspects. First, timber management has occurred for over 100 years, resulting in dramatically different forest successional and structural conditions compared to other areas. Second, the barred owl (Strix varia), an exotic congener known to exert significant negative effects on spotted owls, has not colonized the study area. We used a Bayesian dynamic multistate model to evaluate if territory occupancy of reproductive spotted owls has declined as in other study areas. The state-space approach for dynamic multistate modeling imputes the number of territories for each nesting state and allows for the estimation of longer-term trends in occupied or reproductive territories from longitudinal studies. The multistate approach accounts for different detection probabilities by nesting state (to account for either inherent differences in detection or for the use of different survey methods for different occupancy states) and reduces bias in state assignment. Estimated linear trends in the number of reproductive territories suggested an average loss of approximately one half territory per year (-0.55, 90% CRI: -0.76, -0.33), in one management block and a loss of 0.15 per year (-0.15, 90% CRI: -0.24, -0.07), in another management block during the 25 year observation period. Estimated trends in the third management block were also negative, but substantial uncertainty existed in the estimate (-0.09, 90% CRI: -0.35, 0.17). Our results indicate that the number of territories occupied by northern spotted owl pairs remained relatively constant over a 25 year period (-0.07, 90% CRI: -0.20, 0.05; -0.01, 90% CRI: -0.19, 0.16; -0.16, 90% CRI: -0.40, 0.06). However, we cannot exclude small-to-moderate declines or increases in paired territory numbers due to uncertainty in our estimates. Collectively, we conclude spotted owl pair populations on this landscape managed for commercial timber production appear to be more stable and do not show sharp year-over-year declines seen in both managed and unmanaged landscapes with substantial barred owl colonization and persistence. Continued monitoring of reproductive territories can determine whether recent declines continue or whether trends reverse as they have on four previous occasions. Experimental investigations to evaluate changes to spotted owl occupancy dynamics when barred owl populations are reduced or removed entirely can confirm the generality of this conclusion.

Responses of riparian cottonwoods to alluvial water table declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, M.L.; Shafroth, P.B.; Auble, G.T.

1999-01-01

Human demands for surface and shallow alluvial groundwater have contributed to the loss, fragmentation, and simplification of riparian ecosystems. Populus species typically dominate riparian ecosystems throughout arid and semiarid regions of North American and efforts to minimize loss of riparian Populus requires an integrated understanding of the role of surface and groundwater dynamics in the establishment of new, and maintenance of existing, stands. In a controlled, whole-stand field experiment, we quantified responses of Populus morphology, growth, and mortality to water stress resulting from sustained water table decline following in-channel sand mining along an ephemeral sandbed stream in eastern Colorado, USA. We measured live crown volume, radial stem growth, annual branch increment, and mortality of 689 live Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera stems over four years in conjunction with localized water table declines. Measurements began one year prior to mining and included trees in both affected and unaffected areas. Populus demonstrated a threshold response to water table declines in medium alluvial sands; sustained declines ???1 m produced leaf desiccation and branch dieback within three weeks and significant declines in live crown volume, stem growth, and 88% mortality over a three-year period. Declines in live Crown volume proved to be a significant leading indicator of mortality in the following year. A logistic regression of tree survival probability against the prior year's live crown volume was significant (-2 log likelihood = 270, ??2 with 1 df = 232, P < 0.0001) and trees with absolute declines in live crown volume of ???30 during one year had survival probabilities <0.5 in the following year. In contrast, more gradual water table declines of ~0.5 m had no measurable effect on mortality, stem growth, or live crown volume and produced significant declines only in annual branch growth increments. Developing quantitative information on the timing and extent of morphological responses and mortality of Populus to the rate, depth, and duration of water table declines can assist in the design of management prescriptions to minimize impacts of alluvial groundwater depletion on existing riparian Populus forests.

Count data, detection probabilities, and the demography, dynamics, distribution, and decline of amphibians.

PubMed

Schmidt, Benedikt R

2003-08-01

The evidence for amphibian population declines is based on count data that were not adjusted for detection probabilities. Such data are not reliable even when collected using standard methods. The formula C = Np (where C is a count, N the true parameter value, and p is a detection probability) relates count data to demography, population size, or distributions. With unadjusted count data, one assumes a linear relationship between C and N and that p is constant. These assumptions are unlikely to be met in studies of amphibian populations. Amphibian population data should be based on methods that account for detection probabilities.

Computerized assessment of communication for cognitive stimulation for people with cognitive decline using spectral-distortion measures and phylogenetic inference.

PubMed

Pham, Tuan D; Oyama-Higa, Mayumi; Truong, Cong-Thang; Okamoto, Kazushi; Futaba, Terufumi; Kanemoto, Shigeru; Sugiyama, Masahide; Lampe, Lisa

2015-01-01

Therapeutic communication and interpersonal relationships in care homes can help people to improve their mental wellbeing. Assessment of the efficacy of these dynamic and complex processes are necessary for psychosocial planning and management. This paper presents a pilot application of photoplethysmography in synchronized physiological measurements of communications between the care-giver and people with dementia. Signal-based evaluations of the therapy can be carried out using the measures of spectral distortion and the inference of phylogenetic trees. The proposed computational models can be of assistance and cost-effectiveness in caring for and monitoring people with cognitive decline.

Ideal men: masculinity and decline in seventeenth-century Spain.

PubMed

Lehfeldt, Elizabeth A

2008-01-01

This article examines how the experience and critique of their country's decline led Spaniards to craft a distinct discourse of masculinity in the seventeenth century. As they self-consciously examined Spain's crisis and offered political and economic solutions, these same writers also offered a scathing critique of standards of masculinity. Using the figure of the ideal nobleman as a case study, the article examines how moralists, arbitristas, and hagiographers constructed a dynamic code of manhood linked to questions of productivity, male chastity, and military performance. Further, it argues that this discourse was ultimately nostalgic and failed to adapt itself to the circumstances of the seventeenth century.

Computerized Assessment of Communication for Cognitive Stimulation for People with Cognitive Decline Using Spectral-Distortion Measures and Phylogenetic Inference

PubMed Central

Pham, Tuan D.; Oyama-Higa, Mayumi; Truong, Cong-Thang; Okamoto, Kazushi; Futaba, Terufumi; Kanemoto, Shigeru; Sugiyama, Masahide; Lampe, Lisa

2015-01-01

Therapeutic communication and interpersonal relationships in care homes can help people to improve their mental wellbeing. Assessment of the efficacy of these dynamic and complex processes are necessary for psychosocial planning and management. This paper presents a pilot application of photoplethysmography in synchronized physiological measurements of communications between the care-giver and people with dementia. Signal-based evaluations of the therapy can be carried out using the measures of spectral distortion and the inference of phylogenetic trees. The proposed computational models can be of assistance and cost-effectiveness in caring for and monitoring people with cognitive decline. PMID:25803586

Time-resolved photoluminescence investigation of (Mg, Zn) O alloy growth on a non-polar plane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed Ali, Mohammed Jassim; Chauveau, J. M.; Bretagnon, T.

2018-04-01

Excitons recombination dynamics in ZnMgO alloy have been studied by time-resolved photoluminescence according to temperature. At low temperature, localisation effects of the exciton are found to play a significant role. The photoluminescence (PL) decays are bi-exponential. The short lifetime has a constant value, whereas the long lifetime shows a dependency with temperature. For temperature higher than 100 K the declines show a mono-exponential decay. The PL declines are dominated by non-radiative process at temperatures above 150 K. The PL lifetime dependancy with temperature is analysed using a model including localisation effects and non-radiative recombinations.

Pathogen dynamics during invasion and establishment of white-nose syndrome explain mechanisms of host persistence.

PubMed

Frick, Winifred F; Cheng, Tina L; Langwig, Kate E; Hoyt, Joseph R; Janicki, Amanda F; Parise, Katy L; Foster, Jeffrey T; Kilpatrick, A Marm

2017-03-01

Disease dynamics during pathogen invasion and establishment determine the impacts of disease on host populations and determine the mechanisms of host persistence. Temporal progression of prevalence and infection intensity illustrate whether tolerance, resistance, reduced transmission, or demographic compensation allow initially declining populations to persist. We measured infection dynamics of the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans that causes white-nose syndrome in bats by estimating pathogen prevalence and load in seven bat species at 167 hibernacula over a decade as the pathogen invaded, became established, and some host populations stabilized. Fungal loads increased rapidly and prevalence rose to nearly 100% at most sites within 2 yr of invasion in six of seven species. Prevalence and loads did not decline over time despite huge reductions in colony sizes, likely due to an extensive environmental reservoir. However, there was substantial variation in fungal load among sites with persisting colonies, suggesting that both tolerance and resistance developed at different sites in the same species. In contrast, one species disappeared from hibernacula within 3 yr of pathogen invasion. Variable host responses to pathogen invasion require different management strategies to prevent disease-induced extinction and to facilitate evolution of tolerance or resistance in persisting populations. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Where do winds come from? A new theory on how water vapor condensation influences atmospheric pressure and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarieva, A. M.; Gorshkov, V. G.; Sheil, D.; Nobre, A. D.; Li, B.-L.

2013-01-01

Phase transitions of atmospheric water play a ubiquitous role in the Earth's climate system, but their direct impact on atmospheric dynamics has escaped wide attention. Here we examine and advance a theory as to how condensation influences atmospheric pressure through the mass removal of water from the gas phase with a simultaneous account of the latent heat release. Building from fundamental physical principles we show that condensation is associated with a decline in air pressure in the lower atmosphere. This decline occurs up to a certain height, which ranges from 3 to 4 km for surface temperatures from 10 to 30 °C. We then estimate the horizontal pressure differences associated with water vapor condensation and find that these are comparable in magnitude with the pressure differences driving observed circulation patterns. The water vapor delivered to the atmosphere via evaporation represents a store of potential energy available to accelerate air and thus drive winds. Our estimates suggest that the global mean power at which this potential energy is released by condensation is around one per cent of the global solar power - this is similar to the known stationary dissipative power of general atmospheric circulation. We conclude that condensation and evaporation merit attention as major, if previously overlooked, factors in driving atmospheric dynamics.

Contrasting dynamics of leaf potential and gas exchange during progressive drought cycles and recovery in Amorpha fruticosa and Robinia pseudoacacia.

PubMed

Yan, Weiming; Zheng, Shuxia; Zhong, Yangquanwei; Shangguan, Zhouping

2017-06-30

Leaf gas exchange is closely associated with water relations; however, less attention has been given to this relationship over successive drought events. Dynamic changes in gas exchange and water potential in the seedlings of two woody species, Amorpha fruticosa and Robinia pseudoacacia, were monitored during recurrent drought. The pre-dawn leaf water potential declined in parallel with gas exchange in both species, and sharp declines in gas exchange occurred with decreasing water potential. A significant correlation between pre-dawn water potential and gas exchange was observed in both species and showed a right shift in R. pseudoacacia in the second drought. The results suggested that stomatal closure in early drought was mediated mainly by elevated foliar abscisic acid (ABA) in R. pseudoacacia, while a shift from ABA-regulated to leaf-water-potential-driven stomatal closure was observed in A. fruticosa. After re-watering, the pre-dawn water potential recovered quickly, whereas stomatal conductance did not fully recover from drought in R. pseudoacacia, which affected the ability to tightly control transpiration post-drought. The dynamics of recovery from drought suggest that stomatal behavior post-drought may be restricted mainly by hydraulic factors, but non-hydraulic factors may also be involved in R. pseudoacacia.

Analysis of Hepatitis C Virus Decline during Treatment with the Protease Inhibitor Danoprevir Using a Multiscale Model

DOE PAGES

Rong, Libin; Guedj, Jeremie; Dahari, Harel; ...

2013-03-14

The current paradigm for studying hepatitis C virus (HCV) dynamics in patients utilizes a standard viral dynamic model that keeps track of uninfected (target) cells, infected cells, and virus. The model does not account for the dynamics of intracellular viral replication, which is the major target of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). In this paper, we describe and study a recently developed multiscale age-structured model that explicitly considers the potential effects of DAAs on intracellular viral RNA production, degradation, and secretion as virus into the circulation. We show that when therapy significantly blocks both intracellular viral RNA production and virus secretion,more » the serum viral load decline has three phases, with slopes reflecting the rate of serum viral clearance, the rate of loss of intracellular viral RNA, and the rate of loss of intracellular replication templates and infected cells, respectively. We also derive analytical approximations of the multiscale model and use one of them to analyze data from patients treated for 14 days with the HCV protease inhibitor danoprevir. Analysis suggests that danoprevir significantly blocks intracellular viral production (with mean effectiveness 99.2%), enhances intracellular viral RNA degradation about 5-fold, and moderately inhibits viral secretion (with mean effectiveness 56%). Finally, the multiscale model can be used to study viral dynamics in patients treated with other DAAs and explore their mechanisms of action in treatment of hepatitis C.« less

Simulation of Escherichia coli O157:H7 behavior in fresh-cut lettuce under dynamic temperature conditions during distribution from processing to retail.

PubMed

McKellar, Robin C; LeBlanc, Denyse I; Lu, Jianbo; Delaquis, Pascal

2012-03-01

The temperature of packaged lettuce was recorded throughout a retail supply chain in Canada during the various stages of storage and shipping from the processor to retail. Temperatures were monitored in 27 cases of lettuce destined for three stores in three replicate trials conducted during the winter. A dynamic model that predicts the effect of temperature on the growth or die-off of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in packaged fresh-cut lettuce was applied to simulate the behavior of E. coli O157:H7 in the system. Simulations were carried out using distributions to account for variation in the temperature parameter and the die-off coefficient of the dynamic growth/death model. The results indicate that there was a predicted overall mean decline in cell numbers of 0.983 log cfu g⁻¹ and that the extent of cell death was proportional to the total time spent in the cold chain. Slight growth was predicted in a few instances when the dynamic temperature was above the permissive temperature of 5°C. These results suggest that generally there would be little or no growth of E. coli O157:H7 in product maintained at the proper temperature in the chain. Moreover, the predicted decline in cell numbers at refrigeration temperatures suggests that storage at 5°C or below prior to consumption would reduce populations of the pathogen in fresh-cut lettuce.

"Dynamic Labor Shortage" In the Offing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olson, Lawrence

1982-01-01

The United States is on the verge of a labor shortage that is partly the result of declining birth rates. An increase in work force participation by older adults, encouraged by reversals of early retirement and other policy changes, would be advantageous to employers, workers, and the economy. (Author/SK)

The Dynamics of a Heroin Addiction Epidemic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DuPont, Robert L.; Greene, Mark H.

1973-01-01

Discusses recent trends in heroin addiction in Washington, D.C. In 1969 a comprehensive, multimodal treatment program for addicts was introduced and a major law enforcement commitment was made to reduce the heroin supply. These factors, together with changing community attitudes, may be responsible for a remarkable decline in heroin addiction. (JR)

Reproductive behaviors of Anoplophora glabripennis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in the laboratory

Treesearch

Melody A. Keena; Vicente Sanchez

2007-01-01

There is a critical need for information on the reproductive behavior of Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) to provide the biological basis for predicting population dynamics, especially as the population size declines due to eradication efforts. To document the reproductive behaviors (both mating and oviposition) five males each from the Chicago...

Potential sea-level rise impacts on tidal wetlands in the Pacific Northwest: Declines in productivity and diversity?

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate change could alter sea-level and salinity dynamics in Pacific Northwest estuaries. We combined survey and experimental approaches to better understand potential climate change effects on the future of tidal wetland primary producers in the region. Surveys conducte...

Ouachita and Ozark Mountains symposium: ecosystem management research

Treesearch

James M. Guldin

2004-01-01

This volume presents 5-year results of silvicultural treatments associated with ecosystem management research in the Ouachita Mountains of Arkansas. Results from stand-level treatments include regeneration dynamics of pine and hardwood species, effects of treatment on birds and small mammals, mast production, visual quality, oak decline, and organic matter....

Educational Attainments of Immigrant Offspring: Success or Segmented Assimilation?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boyd, Monica

2002-01-01

Examined the educational attainments of adult offspring of immigrants age 20-64 years, analyzing data from Canada's 1996 Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics. Contrary to second generation decline and segmented underclass assimilation found in the United States, Canadian adult visible-minority immigrant offspring did not have lower educational…

Remote Sensing and Wetland Ecology: a South African Case Study.

PubMed

De Roeck, Els R; Verhoest, Niko E C; Miya, Mtemi H; Lievens, Hans; Batelaan, Okke; Thomas, Abraham; Brendonck, Luc

2008-05-26

Remote sensing offers a cost efficient means for identifying and monitoring wetlands over a large area and at different moments in time. In this study, we aim at providing ecologically relevant information on characteristics of temporary and permanent isolated open water wetlands, obtained by standard techniques and relatively cheap imagery. The number, surface area, nearest distance, and dynamics of isolated temporary and permanent wetlands were determined for the Western Cape, South Africa. Open water bodies (wetlands) were mapped from seven Landsat images (acquired during 1987 - 2002) using supervised maximum likelihood classification. The number of wetlands fluctuated over time. Most wetlands were detected in the winter of 2000 and 2002, probably related to road constructions. Imagery acquired in summer contained fewer wetlands than in winter. Most wetlands identified from Landsat images were smaller than one hectare. The average distance to the nearest wetland was larger in summer. In comparison to temporary wetlands, fewer, but larger permanent wetlands were detected. In addition, classification of non-vegetated wetlands on an Envisat ASAR radar image (acquired in June 2005) was evaluated. The number of detected small wetlands was lower for radar imagery than optical imagery (acquired in June 2002), probably because of deterioration of the spatial information content due the extensive pre-processing requirements of the radar image. Both optical and radar classifications allow to assess wetland characteristics that potentially influence plant and animal metacommunity structure. Envisat imagery, however, was less suitable than Landsat imagery for the extraction of detailed ecological information, as only large wetlands can be detected. This study has indicated that ecologically relevant data can be generated for the larger wetlands through relatively cheap imagery and standard techniques, despite the relatively low resolution of Landsat and Envisat imagery. For the characterisation of very small wetlands, high spatial resolution optical or radar images are needed. This study exemplifies the benefits of integrating remote sensing and ecology and hence stimulates interdisciplinary research of isolated wetlands.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in prey abundance and vulnerability shapes the foraging tactics of an omnivore

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rayl, Nathaniel; Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Organ, John F.; Mumma, Matthew; Mahoney, Shane P.; Soulliere, Colleen; Lewis, Keith; Otto, Robert; Murray, Dennis; Waits, Lisette; Fuller, Todd

2018-01-01

Prey abundance and prey vulnerability vary across space and time, but we know little about how they mediate predator–prey interactions and predator foraging tactics. To evaluate the interplay between prey abundance, prey vulnerability and predator space use, we examined patterns of black bear (Ursus americanus) predation of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) neonates in Newfoundland, Canada using data from 317 collared individuals (9 bears, 34 adult female caribou, 274 caribou calves).During the caribou calving season, we predicted that landscape features would influence calf vulnerability to bear predation, and that bears would actively hunt calves by selecting areas associated with increased calf vulnerability. Further, we hypothesized that bears would dynamically adjust their foraging tactics in response to spatiotemporal changes in calf abundance and vulnerability (collectively, calf availability). Accordingly, we expected bears to actively hunt calves when they were most abundant and vulnerable, but switch to foraging on other resources as calf availability declined.As predicted, landscape heterogeneity influenced risk of mortality, and bears displayed the strongest selection for areas where they were most likely to kill calves, which suggested they were actively hunting caribou. Initially, the per‐capita rate at which bears killed calves followed a type‐I functional response, but as the calving season progressed and calf vulnerability declined, kill rates dissociated from calf abundance. In support of our hypothesis, bears adjusted their foraging tactics when they were less efficient at catching calves, highlighting the influence that predation phenology may have on predator space use. Contrary to our expectations, however, bears appeared to continue to hunt caribou as calf availability declined, but switched from a tactic of selecting areas of increased calf vulnerability to a tactic that maximized encounter rates with calves.Our results reveal that generalist predators can dynamically adjust their foraging tactics over short time‐scales in response to changing prey abundance and vulnerability. Further, they demonstrate the utility of integrating temporal dynamics of prey availability into investigations of predator–prey interactions, and move towards a mechanistic understanding of the dynamic foraging tactics of a large omnivore.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in prey abundance and vulnerability shapes the foraging tactics of an omnivore.

PubMed

Rayl, Nathaniel D; Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Organ, John F; Mumma, Matthew A; Mahoney, Shane P; Soulliere, Colleen E; Lewis, Keith P; Otto, Robert D; Murray, Dennis L; Waits, Lisette P; Fuller, Todd K

2018-05-01

Prey abundance and prey vulnerability vary across space and time, but we know little about how they mediate predator-prey interactions and predator foraging tactics. To evaluate the interplay between prey abundance, prey vulnerability and predator space use, we examined patterns of black bear (Ursus americanus) predation of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) neonates in Newfoundland, Canada using data from 317 collared individuals (9 bears, 34 adult female caribou, 274 caribou calves). During the caribou calving season, we predicted that landscape features would influence calf vulnerability to bear predation, and that bears would actively hunt calves by selecting areas associated with increased calf vulnerability. Further, we hypothesized that bears would dynamically adjust their foraging tactics in response to spatiotemporal changes in calf abundance and vulnerability (collectively, calf availability). Accordingly, we expected bears to actively hunt calves when they were most abundant and vulnerable, but switch to foraging on other resources as calf availability declined. As predicted, landscape heterogeneity influenced risk of mortality, and bears displayed the strongest selection for areas where they were most likely to kill calves, which suggested they were actively hunting caribou. Initially, the per-capita rate at which bears killed calves followed a type-I functional response, but as the calving season progressed and calf vulnerability declined, kill rates dissociated from calf abundance. In support of our hypothesis, bears adjusted their foraging tactics when they were less efficient at catching calves, highlighting the influence that predation phenology may have on predator space use. Contrary to our expectations, however, bears appeared to continue to hunt caribou as calf availability declined, but switched from a tactic of selecting areas of increased calf vulnerability to a tactic that maximized encounter rates with calves. Our results reveal that generalist predators can dynamically adjust their foraging tactics over short time-scales in response to changing prey abundance and vulnerability. Further, they demonstrate the utility of integrating temporal dynamics of prey availability into investigations of predator-prey interactions, and move towards a mechanistic understanding of the dynamic foraging tactics of a large omnivore. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.

Ancient and Contemporary DNA Reveal a Pre-Human Decline but No Population Bottleneck Associated with Recent Human Persecution in the Kea (Nestor notabilis)

PubMed Central

Dussex, Nicolas; Rawlence, Nicolas J.; Robertson, Bruce C.

2015-01-01

The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis). Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000–5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410), historical (n = 15) and fossil samples (n = 4) showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial) but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 – 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines. PMID:25719752

Decrease of airway smooth muscle contractility induced by simulated breathing maneuvers is not simply proportional to strain.

PubMed

Pascoe, Chris D; Seow, Chun Y; Paré, Peter D; Bossé, Ynuk

2013-02-01

The lung is a dynamic organ and the oscillating stress applied to the airway wall during breathing maneuvers can decrease airway smooth muscle (ASM) contractility. However, it is unclear whether it is the stress or the attendant strain that is responsible for the decline of ASM force associated with breathing maneuvers, and whether tone can prevent the decline of force by attenuating the strain. To investigate these questions, ovine tracheal strips were subjected to oscillating stress that simulates breathing maneuvers, and the resulting strain and decline of force were measured in the absence or presence of different levels of tone elicited by acetylcholine. In relaxed ASM, high stress simulating 20 cm H(2)O-transpulmonary pressure excursions strained ASM strips by 20.7% and decreased force by 17.1%. When stress oscillations were initiated during measurement of ACh concentration-response curves, tone almost abrogated strain at an ACh concentration of 10(-6) M (1.1%) but the decline of force was not affected (18.9%). When stress oscillations were initiated after ACh-induced contraction had reached its maximal force, strain was almost abrogated at an ACh concentration of 10(-6) M (0.9%) and the decline of force was attenuated (10.1%). However, even at the highest ACh concentration (10(-4) M), substantial decline of force (6.1%) was still observed despite very small strain (0.7%). As expected, the results indicate that tone attenuated the strain experienced by ASM during breathing maneuver simulations. More surprisingly, the reduction of strain induced by tone was not proportional to its effect on the decline of force induced by simulated breathing maneuvers.

Microbial community activities during establishment, performance, and decline of bench-scale passive treatment systems for mine drainage.

PubMed

Logan, Miranda V; Reardon, Kenneth F; Figueroa, Linda A; McLain, Jean E T; Ahmann, Dianne M

2005-11-01

Permeable reactive barrier (PRB) technology, in which sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) facilitate precipitation of metal sulfides, is a promising approach for remediation of sulfate- and metal-laden mine drainage. While PRBs are easily established, they often decline for reasons not well understood. SRB depend on or compete with multiple dynamic microbial populations within a PRB; as a result, performance depends on the changing PRB chemical composition and on succession and competition within the microbial community. To investigate these interactions, we constructed and monitored eight bench-scale PRBs to define periods of establishment, performance, and decline. We then conducted short-term batch studies, using substrate-supplemented column materials, on Days 0 (pre-establishment), 27 (establishment), 41 (performance), and 99 (decline) to reveal potential activities of cellulolytic bacteria, fermenters + anaerobic respirers, SRB, and methanogens. PRBs showed active sulfate reduction, with sulfate removal rates (SRR) of approximately 1-3 mol/m3/d, as well as effective removal of Zn2+. Potential activities of fermentative + anaerobic respiratory bacteria were initially high but diminished greatly during establishment and dropped further during performance and decline. In contrast, potential SRB activity rose during establishment, peaked during performance, and diminished as performance declined. Potential methanogen activity was low; in addition, SRB-methanogen substrate competition was shown not to limit SRB activity. Cellulolytic bacteria showed no substrate limitation at any time. However, fermenters experienced substrate limitation by Day 0, SRB by Day 27, and methanogens by Day 41, showing the dependence of each group on upstream populations to provide substrates. All potential activities, except methanogenesis, were ultimately limited by cellulose hydrolysis; in addition, all potential activities except methanogenesis declined substantially by Day 99, showing that long-term substrate deprivation strongly diminished the intrinsic capacity of the PRB community to perform.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Environmental pollution as engine of industrialization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Sordi, Serena

2018-05-01

This paper analyzes the dynamics of a small open economy with two sectors (a farming sector and an industrial one), heterogeneous agents (workers and entrepreneurs) and free inter-sectoral labor mobility. Labor productivity in the first sector is negatively affected by environmental pollution generated by both sectors, whereas in the second sector it is positively affected by physical capital accumulated by entrepreneurs. Through a global analysis of the non-linear three-dimensional dynamic system of the model we derive conditions under which industrialization generates a decline in workers' revenues in both sectors.

Chancroid transmission dynamics: a mathematical modeling approach.

PubMed

Bhunu, C P; Mushayabasa, S

2011-12-01

Mathematical models have long been used to better understand disease transmission dynamics and how to effectively control them. Here, a chancroid infection model is presented and analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. High levels of treatment are shown to reduce the reproduction number suggesting that treatment has the potential to control chancroid infections in any given community. This result is also supported by numerical simulations which show a decline in chancroid cases whenever the reproduction number is less than unity.

Effects of whole-body vibration applied to lower extremity muscles during decline bench press exercise.

PubMed

García-Gutiérrez, M T; Hazell, T J; Marín, P J

2016-09-07

To evaluate the effects of whole-body vibration (WBV) on skeletal muscle activity and power performance of the upper body during decline bench press exercise at different loads. Forty-seven healthy young and active male students volunteered. Each performed dynamic decline bench press repetitions with and without WBV (50 Hz, 2.2 mm) applied through a hamstring bridge exercise at three different loads of their 1-repetition maximum (1RM): 30%, 50%, and 70% 1RM. Muscle activity of the triceps brachii (TB), biceps brachii (BB), pectoralis major (PM), and biceps femoris (BF) was measured with surface electromyography electrodes and kinetic parameters of the repetitions were measured with a rotary encoder. WBV increased peak power (PP) output during the 70% 1RM condition (p<0.01). Muscle activity was increased with WBV in the TB and BF muscles at all loads (p<0.05). There were no effects of WBV on BB or PM muscles. WBV applied through a hamstring bridge exercise increases TB muscle activity during a decline bench press and this augmentation contributes to an increased peak power at higher loads and increased peak acceleration at lower loads.

Contrasting olfaction, vision, and audition as predictors of cognitive change and impairment in non-demented older adults.

PubMed

MacDonald, Stuart W S; Keller, Connor J C; Brewster, Paul W H; Dixon, Roger A

2018-05-01

This study examines the relative utility of a particular class of noninvasive functional biomarkers-sensory functions-for detecting those at risk of cognitive decline and impairment. Three central research objectives were examined including whether (a) olfactory function, vision, and audition exhibited significant longitudinal declines in nondemented older adults; (b) multiwave change for these sensory function indicators predicted risk of mild cognitive impairment (MCI); and (c) change within persons for each sensory measure shared dynamic time-varying associations with within-person change in cognitive functioning. A longitudinal sample (n = 408) from the Victoria Longitudinal Study was assembled. Three cognitive status subgroups were identified: not impaired cognitively, single-assessment MCI, and multiple-assessment MCI. We tested independent predictive associations, contrasting change in sensory function as predictors of cognitive decline and impairment, utilizing both linear mixed models and logistic regression analysis. Olfaction and, to a lesser extent, vision were identified as the most robust predictors of cognitive status and decline; audition showed little predictive influence. These findings underscore the potential utility of deficits in olfactory function, in particular, as an early marker of age- and pathology-related cognitive decline. Functional biomarkers may represent potential candidates for use in the early stages of a multistep screening approach for detecting those at risk of cognitive impairment, as well as for targeted intervention. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Analysis of pelagic species decline in the upper San Francisco Estuary using multivariate autoregressive modeling (MAR)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mac Nally, Ralph; Thomson, James R.; Kimmerer, Wim J.; Feyrer, Frederick; Newman, Ken B.; Sih, Andy; Bennett, William A.; Brown, Larry; Fleishman, Erica; Culberson, Steven D.; Castillo, Gonzalo

2010-01-01

Four species of pelagic fish of particular management concern in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, have declined precipitously since ca. 2002: delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys), striped bass (Morone saxatilis), and threadfin shad (Dorosoma petenense). The estuary has been monitored since the late 1960s with extensive collection of data on the fishes, their pelagic prey, phytoplankton biomass, invasive species, and physical factors. We used multivariate autoregressive (MAR) modeling to discern the main factors responsible for the declines. An expert-elicited model was built to describe the system. Fifty-four relationships were built into the model, only one of which was of uncertain direction a priori. Twenty-eight of the proposed relationships were strongly supported by or consistent with the data, while 26 were close to zero (not supported by the data but not contrary to expectations). The position of the 2‰ isohaline (a measure of the physical response of the estuary to freshwater flow) and increased water clarity over the period of analyses were two factors affecting multiple declining taxa (including fishes and the fishes' main zooplankton prey). Our results were relatively robust with respect to the form of stock–recruitment model used and to inclusion of subsidiary covariates but may be enhanced by using detailed state–space models that describe more fully the life-history dynamics of the declining species.

Analysis of pelagic species decline in the upper San Francisco Estuary using multivariate autoregressive modeling (MAR).

PubMed

Mac Nally, Ralph; Thomson, James R; Kimmerer, Wim J; Feyrer, Frederick; Newman, Ken B; Sih, Andy; Bennett, William A; Brown, Larry; Fleishman, Erica; Culberson, Steven D; Castillo, Gonzalo

2010-07-01

Four species of pelagic fish of particular management concern in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, have declined precipitously since ca. 2002: delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys), striped bass (Morone saxatilis), and threadfin shad (Dorosoma petenense). The estuary has been monitored since the late 1960s with extensive collection of data on the fishes, their pelagic prey, phytoplankton biomass, invasive species, and physical factors. We used multivariate autoregressive (MAR) modeling to discern the main factors responsible for the declines. An expert-elicited model was built to describe the system. Fifty-four relationships were built into the model, only one of which was of uncertain direction a priori. Twenty-eight of the proposed relationships were strongly supported by or consistent with the data, while 26 were close to zero (not supported by the data but not contrary to expectations). The position of the 2 per thousand isohaline (a measure of the physical response of the estuary to freshwater flow) and increased water clarity over the period of analyses were two factors affecting multiple declining taxa (including fishes and the fishes' main zooplankton prey): Our results were relatively robust with respect to the form of stock-recruitment model used and to inclusion of subsidiary covariates but may be enhanced by using detailed state-space models that describe more fully the life-history dynamics of the declining species.

Evidence of disease-related amphibian decline in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muths, Erin; Corn, Paul Stephen; Pessier, Allan P.; Green, D. Earl

2003-01-01

The recent discovery of a pathogenic fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) associated with declines of frogs in the American and Australian tropics, suggests that at least the proximate cause, may be known for many previously unexplained amphibian declines. We have monitored boreal toads in Colorado since 1991 at four sites using capturea??recapture of adults and counts of egg masses to examine the dynamics of this metapopulation. Numbers of male toads declined in 1996 and 1999 with annual survival rate averaging 78% from 1991 to 1994, 45% in 1995 and 3% between 1998 and 1999. Numbers of egg masses also declined. An etiological diagnosis of chytridiomycosis consistent with infections by the genus Batrachochytrium was made in six wild adult toads. Characteristic histomorphological features (i.e. intracellular location, shape of thalli, presence of discharge tubes and rhizoids) of chytrid organisms, and host tissue response (acanthosis and hyperkeratosis) were observed in individual toads. These characteristics were indistinguishable from previously reported mortality events associated with chytrid fungus. We also observed epizootiological features consistent with mortality events associated with chytrid fungus: an increase in the ratio of female:male toads captured, an apparent spread of mortalities within the metapopulation and mortalities restricted to post metamorphic animals. Eleven years of population data suggest that this metapopulation of toads is in danger of extinction, pathological and epizootiological evidence indicates that B. dendrobatidis has played a proximate role in this process

Top carnivores increase their kill rates on prey as a response to human-induced fear

PubMed Central

Smith, Justine A.; Wang, Yiwei; Wilmers, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

The fear induced by predators on their prey is well known to cause behavioural adjustments by prey that can ripple through food webs. Little is known, however, about the analogous impacts of humans as perceived top predators on the foraging behaviour of carnivores. Here, we investigate the influence of human-induced fear on puma foraging behaviour using location and prey consumption data from 30 tagged individuals living along a gradient of human development. We observed strong behavioural responses by female pumas to human development, whereby their fidelity to kill sites and overall consumption time of prey declined with increasing housing density by 36 and 42%, respectively. Females responded to this decline in prey consumption time by increasing the number of deer they killed in high housing density areas by 36% over what they killed in areas with little residential development. The loss of food from declines in prey consumption time paired with increases in energetic costs associated with killing more prey may have consequences for puma populations, particularly with regard to reproductive success. In addition, greater carcass availability is likely to alter community dynamics by augmenting food resources for scavengers. In light of the extensive and growing impact of habitat modification, our study emphasizes that knowledge of the indirect effects of human activity on animal behaviour is a necessary component in understanding anthropogenic impacts on community dynamics and food web function. PMID:25608884

Fleet dynamics of the commercial lake trout fishery in Michigan waters of Lake Superior during 1929-1961

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilberg, Michael J.; Bronte, Charles R.; Hansen, Michael J.

2004-01-01

Understanding fishing fleet dynamics is important when using fishery dependent data to infer the status of fish stocks. We analyzed data from mandatory catch reports from the commercial lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) fishery in Michigan waters of Lake Superior during 1929-1961, a period when lake trout populations collapsed through the combined effects of overfishing and sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) predation. The number of full-time fishermen increased during 1933-1943 and then decreased during 1943-1957. Addition of new fishermen was related to past yield, market prices, World War II draft exemptions, and lost fishing opportunities in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan. Loss of existing fishermen was related to declining lake trout density. Large mesh (a?Y 114-mm stretch-measure) gill net effort increased during 1929-1951 because fishermen fished more net inshore as lake trout density declined, even though catch per effort (CPE) was often higher in deeper waters. The most common gill net mesh size increased from 114-mm to 120-mm stretch-measure during 1929-1957, as lake trout growth increased. More effort was fished inshore than offshore and the amount of inshore effort was less variable over time than offshore effort. Relatively stable yield was maintained by increasing gill net effort and by moving some effort to better grounds. Because fishing-up caused yield and CPE to remain high despite declining lake trout abundance, caution must be used when basing goals for lake trout restoration on historical fishery indices.

Fast but fleeting: adaptive motor learning processes associated with aging and cognitive decline.

PubMed

Trewartha, Kevin M; Garcia, Angeles; Wolpert, Daniel M; Flanagan, J Randall

2014-10-01

Motor learning has been shown to depend on multiple interacting learning processes. For example, learning to adapt when moving grasped objects with novel dynamics involves a fast process that adapts and decays quickly-and that has been linked to explicit memory-and a slower process that adapts and decays more gradually. Each process is characterized by a learning rate that controls how strongly motor memory is updated based on experienced errors and a retention factor determining the movement-to-movement decay in motor memory. Here we examined whether fast and slow motor learning processes involved in learning novel dynamics differ between younger and older adults. In addition, we investigated how age-related decline in explicit memory performance influences learning and retention parameters. Although the groups adapted equally well, they did so with markedly different underlying processes. Whereas the groups had similar fast processes, they had different slow processes. Specifically, the older adults exhibited decreased retention in their slow process compared with younger adults. Within the older group, who exhibited considerable variation in explicit memory performance, we found that poor explicit memory was associated with reduced retention in the fast process, as well as the slow process. These findings suggest that explicit memory resources are a determining factor in impairments in the both the fast and slow processes for motor learning but that aging effects on the slow process are independent of explicit memory declines. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/3413411-11$15.00/0.

Sports can protect dynamic visual acuity from aging: A study with young and older judo and karate martial arts athletes.

PubMed

Muiños, Mónica; Ballesteros, Soledad

2015-08-01

A major topic of current research in aging has been to investigate ways to promote healthy aging and neuroplasticity in order to counteract perceptual and cognitive declines. The aim of the present study was to investigate the benefits of intensive, sustained judo and karate martial arts training in young and older athletes and nonathletes of the same age for attenuating age-related dynamic visual acuity (DVA) decline. As a target, we used a moving stimulus similar to a Landolt ring that moved horizontally, vertically, or obliquely across the screen at three possible contrasts and three different speeds. The results indicated that (1) athletes had better DVA than nonathletes; (2) the older adult groups showed a larger oblique effect than the younger groups, regardless of whether or not they practiced a martial art; and (3) age modulated the results of sport under the high-speed condition: The DVA of young karate athletes was superior to that of nonathletes, while both judo and karate older athletes showed better DVA than did sedentary older adults. These findings suggest that in older adults, the practice of a martial art in general, rather than the practice of a particular type of martial art, is the crucial thing. We concluded that the sustained practice of a martial art such as judo or karate attenuates the decline of DVA, suggesting neuroplasticity in the aging human brain.

Phylogenetic escalation and decline of plant defense strategies

PubMed Central

Agrawal, Anurag A.; Fishbein, Mark

2008-01-01

As the basal resource in most food webs, plants have evolved myriad strategies to battle consumption by herbivores. Over the past 50 years, plant defense theories have been formulated to explain the remarkable variation in abundance, distribution, and diversity of secondary chemistry and other defensive traits. For example, classic theories of enemy-driven evolutionary dynamics have hypothesized that defensive traits escalate through the diversification process. Despite the fact that macroevolutionary patterns are an explicit part of defense theories, phylogenetic analyses have not been previously attempted to disentangle specific predictions concerning (i) investment in resistance traits, (ii) recovery after damage, and (iii) plant growth rate. We constructed a molecular phylogeny of 38 species of milkweed and tested four major predictions of defense theory using maximum-likelihood methods. We did not find support for the growth-rate hypothesis. Our key finding was a pattern of phyletic decline in the three most potent resistance traits (cardenolides, latex, and trichomes) and an escalation of regrowth ability. Our neontological approach complements more common paleontological approaches to discover directional trends in the evolution of life and points to the importance of natural enemies in the macroevolution of species. The finding of macroevolutionary escalating regowth ability and declining resistance provides a window into the ongoing coevolutionary dynamics between plants and herbivores and suggests a revision of classic plant defense theory. Where plants are primarily consumed by specialist herbivores, regrowth (or tolerance) may be favored over resistance traits during the diversification process. PMID:18645183

Grief, Depressive Symptoms, and Physical Health among Recently Bereaved Spouses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Utz, Rebecca L.; Caserta, Michael; Lund, Dale

2012-01-01

Purpose: Widowhood is among the most distressing of all life events, resulting in both mental and physical health declines. This paper explores the dynamic relationship between physical health and psychological well-being among recently bereaved spouses. Design and Methods: Using a sample of 328 bereaved persons who participated in the "Living…

Successional dynamics and restoration implications of a montane coniferous forest in the central Appalachians, USA

Treesearch

Thomas M. Schuler; Rachel J. Collins

2002-01-01

Central Appalachian montane red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) communities have been greatly reduced in extent and functional quality over the past century. This community decline has put several plant and animal species, such as the endangered Virginia northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus fuscus Shaw), at risk from habitat...

Assessing Changes in Amphibian Population Dynamics Following Experimental Manipulations of Introduced Fish

Treesearch

Karen L. Pope

2008-01-01

Sport-fish introductions are now recognized as an important cause of amphibian decline, but few researchers have quantified the demographic responses of amphibians to current options in fisheries management designed to minimize effects on sensitive amphibians. Demographic analyses with mark–recapture data allow researchers to assess the relative importance of...

Dramatic Decline of Respiratory Illness Among US Military Recruits After the Renewed Use of Adenovirus Vaccines

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

editors consider relevant to the con- tent of the manuscript have been disclosed. References 1. Broderick MP, Hansen CJ, Russell KL. Exploration of...Russell KL, Broderick MP, Franklin SE, et al. Transmission dynamics and prospective environmental sampling of adenovirus in a military recruit setting

Dynamics of Higher Education. Old Assumptions and New Uncertainties in the Planning Process.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doi, James I.

1973-01-01

In past decades the planning process in higher education was based on certainties and assumptions about the source of funds, enrollments and enrollment distribution, levels of expenditures, and faculty. Today, none of these certainties remain. The uncertainties of today involve declining enrollments after 1980, society's capacity to effectively…

Dynamic Effects of Teacher Turnover on the Quality of Instruction. Working Paper 170

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanushek, Eric A.; Rivkin, Steven G.; Schiman, Jeffrey C.

2016-01-01

It is widely believed that teacher turnover adversely affects the quality of instruction in urban schools serving predominantly disadvantaged children, and a growing body of research investigates various components of turnover effects. The evidence at first seems contradictory, as the quality of instruction appears to decline following turnover…

Dynamics of soil carbon, nitrogen and soil respiration in farmer’s field with conservation agriculture Siem Reap, Cambodia

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The years of intensive tillage in many countries, including Cambodia, have caused significant decline in agriculture’s natural resources that could threaten the future of agricultural production and sustainability worldwide. Long-term tillage system and site-specific crop management can affect chang...

Evaluating soil erodibility dynamics to improve estimates of wind erosion in drylands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Wind erosion is a key driver of land degradation in the world’s drylands. Soil loss and nutrient decline due to wind erosion increase the sensitivity of drylands to climate stressors. Better understanding the factors controlling wind erosion in drylands will provide a basis for identifying and testi...

Identifying the function of restored urban green space in sustainable environmental management: the ecological response, service, and function of amphibians

EPA Science Inventory

Over one-half of the United States population resides in urban areas and many of these areas are experiencing growth. Nevertheless, human land-use patterns are dynamic, and some locations within urban areas are experiencing declining populations and land abandonment. These abando...

Altered species interactions and implications for natural regeneration in whitebark pine communities

Treesearch

Shawn T. McKinney; Diana F. Tomback; Carl E. Fiedler

2011-01-01

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) decline has altered trophic interactions and led to changes in community dynamics in many Rocky Mountain subalpine forests (McKinney and Tomback 2007). Here we discuss how altered species interactions, driven by disproportionate whitebark pine mortality, constrain the capability of whitebark pine forests to contribute genetic material...

FOOD WEB AND COMMUNITY COMPOSITION CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO NUTRIENT LOADING IN FRESHWATER AND MARINE COASTAL SYSTEMS (ESTUARIES AND COASTAL WETLANDS)

EPA Science Inventory

Our research will investigate the mechanisms by which increased loading of nutrients to coastal waters alters the structure and dynamics of food webs, resulting in declines in populations of ecologically and commercially important organisms. Research across NHEERL Divisions will...

Dynamics of a black-capped chickadee population, 1958-1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loery, G.; Nichols, J.D.

1985-01-01

The dynamics of a wintering population of Black-capped Chickadees (Parus atricapillus) were studied from 1958-1983 using capture-recapture methods. The Jolly-Seber model was used to obtain annual estimates of population size, survival rate, and recruitment. The average estimated population size over this period was ?160 birds. The average estimated number of new birds entering the population each year and alive at the time of sampling was ?57. The arithmetic mean annual survival rate estimate was ?0.59. We tested hypothesis about possible relationships between these population parameters and (1) the natural introduction of Tufted Titmice (Parus bicolor) to the area, (2) the clear-cutting of portions of nearby red pine (Pinus resinosa) plantations, and (3) natural variations in winter temperatures. The chickadee population exhibited a substantial short-term decline following titmouse establishment, produced by decreases in both survival rate and number of new recruits. Survival rate decline somewhat after the initiation of the pine clear-cutting, but population size was very similar before and after clear-cutting. Weighted least squares analyses provided no evidence of a relationship between survival rate and either of two winter temperature variables.

Algicidal bacteria in the sea and their impact on algal blooms.

PubMed

Mayali, Xavier; Azam, Farooq

2004-01-01

Over the past two decades, many reports have revealed the existence of bacteria capable of killing phytoplankton. These algicidal bacteria sometimes increase in abundance concurrently with the decline of algal blooms, suggesting that they may affect algal bloom dynamics. Here, we synthesize the existing knowledge on algicidal bacteria interactions with marine eukaryotic microalgae. We discuss the effectiveness of the current methods to characterize the algicidal phenotype in an ecosystem context. We briefly consider the literature on the phylogenetic identification of algicidal bacteria, their interaction with their algal prey, the characterization of algicidal molecules, and the enumeration of algicidal bacteria during algal blooms. We conclude that, due to limitations of current methods, the evidence for algicidal bacteria causing algal bloom decline is circumstantial. New methods and an ecosystem approach are needed to test hypotheses on the impact of algicidal bacteria in algal bloom dynamics. This will require enlarging the scope of inquiry from its current focus on the potential utility of algicidal bacteria in the control of harmful algal blooms. We suggest conceptualizing bacterial algicidy within the general problem of bacterial regulation of algal community structure in the ocean.

Between Tradition and Modernity: Marriage Dynamics in Kyrgyzstan.

PubMed

Nedoluzhko, Lesia; Agadjanian, Victor

2015-06-01

The demographic literature on union formation in post-communist Europe typically documents retreat from marriage and increase in cohabitation. However, sociological and anthropological studies of post-Soviet Central Asia often point to a resurgence of various traditional norms and practices, including those surrounding marriage, that were suppressed under Soviet rule. We engage these two perspectives on union formation by analyzing transition to first marriage in Kyrgyzstan both before and after the collapse of the USSR. We use uniquely detailed marriage histories from a nationally representative survey conducted in the period 2011-2012 to examine the dynamics of traditional marital practices among that country's two main ethnic groups-Kyrgyz and Uzbeks-focusing on trends in arranged marriages and in marriages involving bride kidnapping. The analysis reveals instructive ethnic and period differences but also indicates an overall decline in the risks of both types of traditional marriage practices in the post-Soviet era. In fact, although the decline has characterized all marriage types, it was more substantial for traditional marriages. We interpret these trends as evidence of continuing modernization of nuptiality behavior in the region.

Dynamics of clade diversification on the morphological hypercube

PubMed Central

Gavrilets, S.

1999-01-01

Understanding the relationship between taxonomic and morphological changes is important in identifying the reasons for accelerated morphological diversification early in the history of animal phyla. Here, a simple general model describing the joint dynamics of taxonomic diversity and morphological disparity is presented and applied to the data on the diversification of blastozoans. I show that the observed patterns of deceleration in clade diversification can be explicable in terms of the geometric structure of the morphospace and the effects of extinction and speciation on morphological disparity without invoking major declines in the size of morphological transitions or taxonomic turnover rates. The model allows testing of hypotheses about patterns of diversification and estimation of rates of morphological evolution. In the case of blastozoans, I find no evidence that major changes in evolutionary rates and mechanisms are responsible for the deceleration of morphological diversification seen during the period of this clade's expansion. At the same time, there is evidence for a moderate decline in overall rates of morphological diversification concordant with a major change (from positive to negative values) in the clade's growth rate.

The role of twinning deformation on the hardening response of polycrystalline magnesium from discrete dislocation dynamics simulations

DOE PAGES

Fan, Haidong; Aubry, Sylvie; Arsenlis, Athanasios; ...

2015-04-13

The mechanical response of micro-twinned polycrystalline magnesium was studied through three-dimensional discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD). A systematic interaction model between dislocations and (1012) tension twin boundaries (TBs) was proposed and introduced into the DDD framework. In addition, a nominal grain boundary (GB) model agreeing with experimental results was also introduced to mimic the GB’s barrier effect. The current simulation results show that TBs act as a strong obstacle to gliding dislocations, which contributes significantly to the hardening behavior of magnesium. On the other hand, the deformation accommodated by twinning plays a softening role. Therefore, the concave shape of the Mgmore » stress-strain curve results from the competition between dislocation-TB induced hardening and twinning deformation induced softening. At low strain levels, twinning deformation induced softening dominates and a decreasing hardening rate is observed in Stage-I. In Stage-II, both the hardening and softening effects decline, but twinning deformation induced softening declines faster, which leads to an increasing hardening rate.« less

Dynamic changes in scope for heart rate and cardiac autonomic control during warm acclimation in rainbow trout.

PubMed

Ekström, Andreas; Hellgren, Kim; Gräns, Albin; Pichaud, Nicolas; Sandblom, Erik

2016-04-15

Time course studies are critical for understanding regulatory mechanisms and temporal constraints in ectothermic animals acclimating to warmer temperatures. Therefore, we investigated the dynamics of heart rate and its neuro-humoral control in rainbow trout ( ITALIC! Onchorhynchus mykissL.) acclimating to 16°C for 39 days after being acutely warmed from 9°C. Resting heart rate was 39 beats min(-1)at 9°C, and increased significantly when fish were acutely warmed to 16°C ( ITALIC! Q10=1.9), but then declined during acclimation ( ITALIC! Q10=1.2 at day 39), mainly due to increased cholinergic inhibition while the intrinsic heart rate and adrenergic tone were little affected. Maximum heart rate also increased with warming, although a partial modest decrease occurred during the acclimation period. Consequently, heart rate scope exhibited a complex pattern with an initial increase with acute warming, followed by a steep decline and then a subsequent increase, which was primarily explained by cholinergic inhibition of resting heart rate. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Fatigue and recovery from dynamic contractions in men and women differ for arm and leg muscles.

PubMed

Senefeld, Jonathon; Yoon, Tejin; Bement, Marie Hoeger; Hunter, Sandra K

2013-09-01

Whether there is a gender difference in fatigue and recovery from maximal velocity fatiguing contractions and across muscles is not understood. Sixteen men and 19 women performed 90 isotonic contractions at maximal voluntary shortening velocity (maximal velocity concentric contractions, MVCC) with the elbow flexor and knee extensor muscles (separate days) at a load equivalent to 20% maximal voluntary isometric contraction (MVIC). Power (from MVCCs) decreased similarly for men and women for both muscles (P > 0.05). Men and women had similar declines in MVIC of elbow flexors, but men had greater reductions in knee extensor MVIC force and MVIC electromyogram activity than women (P < 0.05). The decline in MVIC and power was greater, and force recovery was slower for the elbow flexors compared with knee extensors. The gender difference in muscle fatigue often observed during isometric tasks was diminished during fast dynamic contractions for upper and lower limb muscles. Copyright © Published 2013 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. This article is a US Government wmusork and, as such, is in the public domain in the United States of America.

Population dynamics of American horseshoe crabs-historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faurby, S.; King, T.L.; Obst, M.; Hallerman, E.M.; Pertoldi, C.; Funch, P.

2010-01-01

Populations of the American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, have declined, but neither the causes nor the magnitude are fully understood. In order to evaluate historic demography, variation at 12 microsatellite DNA loci surveyed in 1218 L. polyphemus sampled from 28 localities was analysed with Bayesian coalescent-based methods. The analysis showed strong declines in population sizes throughout the species' distribution except in the geographically isolated southern-most population in Mexico, where a strong increase in population size was inferred. Analyses suggested that demographic changes in the core of the distribution occurred in association with the recolonization after the Ice Age and also by anthropogenic effects, such as the past overharvest of the species for fertilizer or the current use of the animals as bait for American eel (Anguilla rostrata) and whelk (Busycon spp.) fisheries. This study highlights the importance of considering both climatic changes and anthropogenic effects in efforts to understand population dynamics-a topic which is highly relevant in the ongoing assessments of the effects of climate change and overharvest. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Population dynamics of American horseshoe crabs--historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressures.

PubMed

Faurby, Søren; King, Tim L; Obst, Matthias; Hallerman, Eric M; Pertoldi, Cino; Funch, Peter

2010-08-01

Populations of the American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, have declined, but neither the causes nor the magnitude are fully understood. In order to evaluate historic demography, variation at 12 microsatellite DNA loci surveyed in 1218 L. polyphemus sampled from 28 localities was analysed with Bayesian coalescent-based methods. The analysis showed strong declines in population sizes throughout the species' distribution except in the geographically isolated southern-most population in Mexico, where a strong increase in population size was inferred. Analyses suggested that demographic changes in the core of the distribution occurred in association with the recolonization after the Ice Age and also by anthropogenic effects, such as the past overharvest of the species for fertilizer or the current use of the animals as bait for American eel (Anguilla rostrata) and whelk (Busycon spp.) fisheries. This study highlights the importance of considering both climatic changes and anthropogenic effects in efforts to understand population dynamics--a topic which is highly relevant in the ongoing assessments of the effects of climate change and overharvest.

Dynamics of lipid and fatty acid composition of shallow-water corals under thermal stress: an experimental approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imbs, A. B.; Yakovleva, I. M.

2012-03-01

Coral bleaching induces changes in lipid and fatty acid composition that result in low lipid content, reducing the likelihood of coral survival. Species-specific differences in the metabolism of lipid reserves may contribute to the differential resistance of corals under acute heat exposures. Here, we examined the dynamics of lipids and fatty acid abundance in corals subjected to short-term heat stress. The stony corals Acropora intermedia, Montipora digitata, and the soft coral Sinularia capitalis all showed a 60-75% decline in both storage and structural lipids. However, S. capitalis and M. digitata exhibited no significant change in the percentages of structural lipids (i.e., polar lipids and sterols) until they had lost 90-95% of their endosymbionts, whereas A. intermedia showed a rapid decline in structural lipids after a 50% loss of symbionts. After a 90-95% loss of symbionts under heat stress, all three corals showed a relative depletion of polyunsaturated fatty acids that had symbiont biomarkers, suggesting that polyunsaturated fatty acids were translocated from the symbiont to the coral host tissue.

Disease-mediated bottom-up regulation: An emergent virus affects a keystone prey, and alters the dynamics of trophic webs

PubMed Central

Monterroso, Pedro; Garrote, Germán; Serronha, Ana; Santos, Emídio; Delibes-Mateos, Miguel; Abrantes, Joana; Perez de Ayala, Ramón; Silvestre, Fernando; Carvalho, João; Vasco, Inês; Lopes, Ana M.; Maio, Elisa; Magalhães, Maria J.; Mills, L. Scott; Esteves, Pedro J.; Simón, Miguel Ángel; Alves, Paulo C.

2016-01-01

Emergent diseases may alter the structure and functioning of ecosystems by creating new biotic interactions and modifying existing ones, producing cascading processes along trophic webs. Recently, a new variant of the rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV2 or RHDVb) arguably caused widespread declines in a keystone prey in Mediterranean ecosystems - the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). We quantitatively assess the impact of RHDV2 on natural rabbit populations and in two endangered apex predator populations: the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) and the Spanish Imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti). We found 60–70% declines in rabbit populations, followed by decreases of 65.7% in Iberian lynx and 45.5% in Spanish Imperial eagle fecundities. A revision of the web of trophic interactions among rabbits and their dependent predators suggests that RHDV2 acts as a keystone species, and may steer Mediterranean ecosystems to management-dependent alternative states, dominated by simplified mesopredator communities. This model system stresses the importance of diseases as functional players in the dynamics of trophic webs. PMID:27796353

Changes in Land Surface Water Dynamics since the 1990s and Relation to Population Pressure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prigent, C.; Papa, F.; Aires, F.; Jimenez, C.; Rossow, W. B.; Matthews, E.

2012-01-01

We developed a remote sensing approach based on multi-satellite observations, which provides an unprecedented estimate of monthly distribution and area of land-surface open water over the whole globe. Results for 1993 to 2007 exhibit a large seasonal and inter-annual variability of the inundation extent with an overall decline in global average maximum inundated area of 6% during the fifteen-year period, primarily in tropical and subtropical South America and South Asia. The largest declines of open water are found where large increases in population have occurred over the last two decades, suggesting a global scale effect of human activities on continental surface freshwater: denser population can impact local hydrology by reducing freshwater extent, by draining marshes and wetlands, and by increasing water withdrawals. Citation: Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, C. Jimenez, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews (2012), Changes in land surface water dynamics since the 1990s and relation to population pressure, in section 4, insisting on the potential applications of the wetland dataset.

Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia.

PubMed

Darbyshire, Rebecca; Webb, Leanne; Goodwin, Ian; Barlow, E W R

2013-05-01

Increases in temperature as a result of anthropogenically generated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are likely to impact key aspects of horticultural production. The potential effect of higher temperatures on fruit and nut trees' ability to break winter dormancy, which requires exposure to winter chilling temperatures, was considered. Three chill models (the 0-7.2°C, Modified Utah, and Dynamic models) were used to investigate changes in chill accumulation at 13 sites across Australia according to localised temperature change related to 1, 2 and 3°C increases in global average temperatures. This methodology avoids reliance on outcomes of future GHG emission pathways, which vary and are likely to change. Regional impacts and rates of decline in chilling differ among the chill models, with the 0-7.2°C model indicating the greatest reduction and the Dynamic model the slowest rate of decline. Elevated and high latitude eastern Australian sites were the least affected while the three more maritime, less elevated Western Australian locations were shown to bear the greatest impact from future warming.

Optimal control applied to a model for species augmentation.

PubMed

Bodine, Erin N; Gross, Louis J; Lenhart, Suzanne

2008-10-01

Species augmentation is a method of reducing species loss via augmenting declining or threatened populations with individuals from captive-bred or stable, wild populations. In this paper, we develop a differential equations model and optimal control formulation for a continuous time augmentation of a general declining population. We find a characterization for the optimal control and show numerical results for scenarios of different illustrative parameter sets. The numerical results provide considerably more detail about the exact dynamics of optimal augmentation than can be readily intuited. The work and results presented in this paper are a first step toward building a general theory of population augmentation, which accounts for the complexities inherent in many conservation biology applications.

Chronic groundwater decline: A multi-decadal analysis of groundwater trends under extreme climate cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Brocque, Andrew F.; Kath, Jarrod; Reardon-Smith, Kathryn

2018-06-01

Chronic groundwater decline is a concern in many of the world's major agricultural areas. However, a general lack of accurate long-term in situ measurement of groundwater depth and analysis of trends prevents understanding of the dynamics of these systems at landscape scales. This is particularly worrying in the context of future climate uncertainties. This study examines long-term groundwater responses to climate variability in a major agricultural production landscape in southern Queensland, Australia. Based on records for 381 groundwater bores, we used a modified Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen's slope estimator to determine groundwater trends across a 26-year period (1989-2015) and in distinct wet and dry climatic phases. Comparison of trends between climatic phases showed groundwater level recovery during wet phases was insufficient to offset the decline in groundwater level from the previous dry phase. Across the entire 26-year sampling period, groundwater bore levels (all bores) showed an overall significant declining trend (p < 0.05) of an average 0.06 m year-1. Fifty-one bores (20%) exhibited significant declining groundwater levels (p < 0.05), 25 bores (10%) exhibited significant rising groundwater levels (p < 0.05), and 175 bores (70%) exhibited no significant change in groundwater levels (p > 0.05). Spatially, both declining and rising bores were highly clustered. We conclude that over 1989-2015 there is a significant net decline in groundwater levels driven by a smaller subset of highly responsive bores in high irrigation areas within the catchment. Despite a number of targeted policy interventions, chronic groundwater decline remains evident in the catchment. We argue that this is likely to continue and to occur more widely under potential climate change and that policy makers, groundwater users and managers need to engage in planning to ensure the sustainability of this vital resource.

Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America

PubMed Central

Malick, Michael J.; Cox, Sean P.

2016-01-01

Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC) with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65%) did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks) and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks). We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time. PMID:26760510

Trends in Rocky Mountain amphibians and the role of beaver as a keystone species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hossack, Blake R.; Gould, William R.; Patla, Debra A.; Muths, Erin L.; Daley, Rob; Legg, Kristin; Corn, P. Stephen

2015-01-01

Despite prevalent awareness of global amphibian declines, there is still little information on trends for many widespread species. To inform land managers of trends on protected landscapes and identify potential conservation strategies, we collected occurrence data for five wetland-breeding amphibian species in four national parks in the U.S. Rocky Mountains during 2002–2011. We used explicit dynamics models to estimate variation in annual occupancy, extinction, and colonization of wetlands according to summer drought and several biophysical characteristics (e.g., wetland size, elevation), including the influence of North American beaver (Castor canadensis). We found more declines in occupancy than increases, especially in Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks (NP), where three of four species declined since 2002. However, most species in Rocky Mountain NP were too rare to include in our analysis, which likely reflects significant historical declines. Although beaver were uncommon, their creation or modification of wetlands was associated with higher colonization rates for 4 of 5 amphibian species, producing a 34% increase in occupancy in beaver-influenced wetlands compared to wetlands without beaver influence. Also, colonization rates and occupancy of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas) and Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) were ⩾2 times higher in beaver-influenced wetlands. These strong relationships suggest management for beaver that fosters amphibian recovery could counter declines in some areas. Our data reinforce reports of widespread declines of formerly and currently common species, even in areas assumed to be protected from most forms of human disturbance, and demonstrate the close ecological association between beaver and wetland-dependent species.

Use of age-period-cohort models to estimate effects of vehicle age, year of crash and year of vehicle manufacture on driver injury and fatality rates in single vehicle crashes in New South Wales, 2003-2010.

PubMed

Anderson, R W G; Searson, D J

2015-02-01

A novel application of age-period-cohort methods are used to explain changes in vehicle based crash rates in New South Wales, Australia over the period 2003-2010. Models are developed using vehicle age, crash period and vehicle cohort to explain changes in the rate of single vehicle driver fatalities and injuries in vehicles less than 13 years of age. Large declines in risk are associated with vehicle cohorts built after about 1996. The decline in risk appears to have accelerated to 12 percent per vehicle cohort year for cohorts since 2004. Within each cohort, the risk of crashing appears to be a minimum at two years of age and increases as the vehicle ages beyond this. Period effects (i.e., other road safety measures) between 2003 and 2010 appear to have contributed to declines of up to about two percent per annum to the driver-fatality single vehicle crash rate, and possibly only negligible improvements to the driver-injury single vehicle crash rate. Vehicle improvements appear to have been responsible for a decline in per-vehicle crash risk of at least three percent per calendar year for both severity levels over the same period. Given the decline in risk associated with more recent vehicle cohorts and the dynamics of fleet turnover, continued declines in per-vehicle crash risk over coming years are almost certain. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Response of wind erosion dynamics to climate change and human activity in Inner Mongolia, China during 1990 to 2015.

PubMed

Zhang, Haiyan; Fan, Jiangwen; Cao, Wei; Harris, Warwick; Li, Yuzhe; Chi, Wenfeng; Wang, Suizi

2018-10-15

Soil erosion caused by wind is a serious environmental problem that results in land degradation and threatens sustainable development. Accurately evaluating wind erosion dynamics is important for reducing the hazard of wind erosion. Separating the climatic and anthropogenic causes of wind erosion can improve the understanding of its driving mechanisms. Based on meteorological, remote sensing and field observation data, we applied the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) to simulate wind erosion in Inner Mongolia, China from 1990 to 2015. We used the variable control method by input of the average climate conditions to calculate human-induced wind erosion. The difference between natural wind erosion and human-induced wind erosion was determined to assess the effect of climate change on wind erosion. The results showed that the wind erosion modulus had a remarkable decline with a slope of 52.23 t/km 2 /a from 1990 to 2015. During 26 years, the average wind erosion for Inner Mongolia amounted to 63.32 billion tons. Wind erosion showed an overall significant decline of 49.23% and the partial severer erosion hazard significantly increased by 7.11%. Of the significant regional decline, 40.72% was caused by climate changes, and 8.51% was attributed to ecological restoration programs. For the significant regional increases of wind erosion, 4.29% was attributed to climate changes and 2.82% to human activities, mainly overgrazing and land use/cover changes. During the study, the driving forces in Inner Mongolia of wind erosion dynamics differed spatially. Timely monitoring based on multi-source data and highlighting the importance of positive human activities by increasing vegetation coverage for deserts, reducing grazing pressure on grasslands, establishing forests as windbreaks and optimizing crop planting rotations of farmlands can all act to reduce and control wind erosion. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of two population metrics clarifies biodiversity dynamics in large-scale monitoring: the case of trees in Japanese old-growth forests: the need for multiple population metrics in large-scale monitoring.

PubMed

Ogawa, Mifuyu; Yamaura, Yuichi; Abe, Shin; Hoshino, Daisuke; Hoshizaki, Kazuhiko; Iida, Shigeo; Katsuki, Toshio; Masaki, Takashi; Niiyama, Kaoru; Saito, Satoshi; Sakai, Takeshi; Sugita, Hisashi; Tanouchi, Hiroyuki; Amano, Tatsuya; Taki, Hisatomo; Okabe, Kimiko

2011-07-01

Many indicators/indices provide information on whether the 2010 biodiversity target of reducing declines in biodiversity have been achieved. The strengths and limitations of the various measures used to assess the success of such measures are now being discussed. Biodiversity dynamics are often evaluated by a single biological population metric, such as the abundance of each species. Here we examined tree population dynamics of 52 families (192 species) at 11 research sites (three vegetation zones) of Japanese old-growth forests using two population metrics: number of stems and basal area. We calculated indices that track the rate of change in all species of tree by taking the geometric mean of changes in population metrics between the 1990s and the 2000s at the national level and at the levels of the vegetation zone and family. We specifically focused on whether indices based on these two metrics behaved similarly. The indices showed that (1) the number of stems declined, whereas basal area did not change at the national level and (2) the degree of change in the indices varied by vegetation zone and family. These results suggest that Japanese old-growth forests have not degraded and may even be developing in some vegetation zones, and indicate that the use of a single population metric (or indicator/index) may be insufficient to precisely understand the state of biodiversity. It is therefore important to incorporate more metrics into monitoring schemes to overcome the risk of misunderstanding or misrepresenting biodiversity dynamics.

Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior.

PubMed

Pananos, A Demetri; Bury, Thomas M; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P; Nyhan, Brendan; Salathé, Marcel; Bauch, Chris T

2017-12-26

Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior

PubMed Central

Pananos, A. Demetri; Bury, Thomas M.; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P.; Nyhan, Brendan; Bauch, Chris T.

2017-01-01

Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena—special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles–mumps–rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014–2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior–disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing “critical speeding up” whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. PMID:29229821

[Distribution dynamics of dermatophytosis in Azerbaijan].

PubMed

Agazade, M M

2009-02-01

The study deals with the problem of the dermatophytosis in Azerbaijan, with regard to their etiologic and epidemiologic aspects. The information from 2004-2006 was obtained from official statistical report of Ministry of Health of Azerbaijan. From the data collected, the changes in cases of dermatophytosis were observed. The majority of cases were athlete's foot. In 2004 here were 294 cases of athlete's foot per year in Baku and 3042 in the rest of the country. The diseases declined and in 2005 there were 152 cases of athlete's foot in Baku per year and 1962 in the rest of the country; in 2006 - 197 cases of athlete's foot and 2092 cases in the rest of the country per year. The cases of dermatophytosis in Azerbaijan showed a tendency to decline. In 2004 the frequency of dermatophytosis was 48% of all cases of dermatological pathology; in 2005 the indices declined up to 17,7% of cases; in 2006 up to 14,3% cases.

Mechanical regulation of plant growth and development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, C. A.

1984-01-01

Soybean and eggplant grown and shaken in a greenhouse exhibited decreased internode length, internode diameter, leaf area, and fresh and dry weight of roots and shoots in much the same way as outdoor-exposed plants. Perhaps more important than decreased dimensions of plant parts resulting from periodic seismic treatment is the inhibition of photosynthetic productivity that accompanies this stress. Soybeam plants briefly shaken or rubbed twice daily experienced a decrease in relative as well as absolute growth rate compared to that of undisturbed controls. Growth dynamics analysis revealed that virtually all of the decline in relative growth rate (RGR) was due to a decline in net assimilation rate (NAR), but not in leaf area ratio (LAR). Lower NAR suggests that the stress-induced decrease in dry weight gain is due to a decline in photosynthetic efficiency. Possible effects on stomatal aperture was investigated by measuring rates of whole plant transpiration as a function of seismo-stress, and a transitory decrease followed by a gradual, partial recovery was detected.

Iron-mediated soil carbon response to water-table decline in an alpine wetland

PubMed Central

Wang, Yiyun; Wang, Hao; He, Jin-Sheng; Feng, Xiaojuan

2017-01-01

The tremendous reservoir of soil organic carbon (SOC) in wetlands is being threatened by water-table decline (WTD) globally. However, the SOC response to WTD remains highly uncertain. Here we examine the under-investigated role of iron (Fe) in mediating soil enzyme activity and lignin stabilization in a mesocosm WTD experiment in an alpine wetland. In contrast to the classic ‘enzyme latch’ theory, phenol oxidative activity is mainly controlled by ferrous iron [Fe(II)] and declines with WTD, leading to an accumulation of dissolvable aromatics and a reduced activity of hydrolytic enzyme. Furthermore, using dithionite to remove Fe oxides, we observe a significant increase of Fe-protected lignin phenols in the air-exposed soils. Fe oxidation hence acts as an ‘iron gate’ against the ‘enzyme latch’ in regulating wetland SOC dynamics under oxygen exposure. This newly recognized mechanism may be key to predicting wetland soil carbon storage with intensified WTD in a changing climate. PMID:28649988

Coin hoards speak of population declines in Ancient Rome

PubMed Central

Turchin, Peter; Scheidel, Walter

2009-01-01

In times of violence, people tend to hide their valuables, which are later recovered unless the owners had been killed or driven away. Thus, the temporal distribution of unrecovered coin hoards is an excellent proxy for the intensity of internal warfare. We use this relationship to resolve a long-standing controversy in Roman history. Depending on who was counted in the early Imperial censuses (adult males or the entire citizenry including women and minors), the Roman citizen population of Italy either declined, or more than doubled, during the first century BCE. This period was characterized by a series of civil wars, and historical evidence indicates that high levels of sociopolitical instability are associated with demographic contractions. We fitted a simple model quantifying the effect of instability (proxied by hoard frequency) on population dynamics to the data before 100 BCE. The model predicts declining population after 100 BCE. This suggests that the vigorous growth scenario is highly implausible. PMID:19805043

Long-term changes in fish mercury levels in the historically impacted English-Wabigoon River system (Canada).

PubMed

Neff, Margaret R; Bhavsar, Satyendra P; Arhonditsis, George B; Fletcher, Rachael; Jackson, Donald A

2012-09-01

The English-Wabigoon River system in Northwestern Ontario, Canada, was one of the most heavily mercury-contaminated waterways in the world due to historical discharges in the 1960s from a chlor-alkali plant. This study examines long-term (1970-2010) monitoring data to assess temporal trends in mercury contamination in Walleye, Northern Pike and Lake Whitefish, three species important for sport and subsistence fishing in this region, using dynamic linear modeling and piecewise regression. For all lakes and species, there is a significant decline (36-94%) in mercury concentrations through time; however, there is evidence that this decline is either slowing down or levelling off. Concentrations in the English-Wabigoon fish are elevated, and may still present a potential health risk to humans consuming fish from this system. Various biotic and abiotic factors are examined as possible explanations to slowing rates of decline in mercury concentrations observed in the mid-1980s.

Predator decline leads to decreased stability in a coastal fish community.

PubMed

Britten, Gregory L; Dowd, Michael; Minto, Cóilín; Ferretti, Francesco; Boero, Ferdinando; Lotze, Heike K

2014-12-01

Fisheries exploitation has caused widespread declines in marine predators. Theory predicts that predator depletion will destabilise lower trophic levels, making natural communities more vulnerable to environmental perturbations. However, empirical evidence has been limited. Using a community matrix model, we empirically assessed trends in the stability of a multispecies coastal fish community over the course of predator depletion. Three indices of community stability (resistance, resilience and reactivity) revealed significantly decreasing stability concurrent with declining predator abundance. The trophically downgraded community exhibited weaker top-down control, leading to predator-release processes in lower trophic levels and increased susceptibility to perturbation. At the community level, our results suggest that high predator abundance acts as a stabilising force to the naturally stochastic and highly autocorrelated dynamics in low trophic species. These findings have important implications for the conservation and management of predators in marine ecosystems and provide empirical support for the theory of predatory control. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Dynamics of teacher-student relationships: stability and change across elementary school and the influence on children's academic success.

PubMed

Spilt, Jantine L; Hughes, Jan N; Wu, Jiun-Yu; Kwok, Oi-Man

2012-01-01

This study modeled teacher-student relationship trajectories throughout elementary school to predict gains in achievement in an ethnic-diverse sample of 657 academically at-risk students (mean age = 6.57 years, SD = .39). Teacher reports of warmth and conflict were collected in Grades 1-5. Achievement was tested in Grades 1 and 6. For conflict, low-stable (normative), low-increasing, high-declining, and high-stable trajectories were found. For warmth, high-declining (normative) and low-increasing patterns were found. Children with early behavioral, academic, or social risks were underrepresented in the normative trajectory groups. Chronic conflict was most strongly associated with underachievement. Rising conflict but not declining Conflict coincided with underachievement. The probability of school failure increased as a function of the timing and length of time children were exposed to relational adversity. © 2012 The Authors. Child Development © 2012 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Evolutionary dynamics and genetic diversity from three genes of Anguillid rhabdovirus.

PubMed

Bellec, Laure; Cabon, Joelle; Bergmann, Sven; de Boisséson, Claire; Engelsma, Marc; Haenen, Olga; Morin, Thierry; Olesen, Niels Jørgen; Schuetze, Heike; Toffan, Anna; Way, Keith; Bigarré, Laurent

2014-11-01

Wild freshwater eel populations have dramatically declined in recent past decades in Europe and America, partially through the impact of several factors including the wide spread of infectious diseases. The anguillid rhabdoviruses eel virus European X (EVEX) and eel virus American (EVA) potentially play a role in this decline, even if their real contribution is still unclear. In this study, we investigate the evolutionary dynamics and genetic diversity of anguiillid rhabdoviruses by analysing sequences from the glycoprotein, nucleoprotein and phosphoprotein (P) genes of 57 viral strains collected from seven countries over 40 years using maximum-likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Phylogenetic trees from the three genes are congruent and allow two monophyletic groups, European and American, to be clearly distinguished. Results of nucleotide substitution rates per site per year indicate that the P gene is expected to evolve most rapidly. The nucleotide diversity observed is low (2-3 %) for the three genes, with a significantly higher variability within the P gene, which encodes multiple proteins from a single genomic RNA sequence, particularly a small C protein. This putative C protein is a potential molecular marker suitable for characterization of distinct genotypes within anguillid rhabdoviruses. This study provides, to our knowledge, the first molecular characterization of EVA, brings new insights to the evolutionary dynamics of two genotypes of Anguillid rhabdovirus, and is a baseline for further investigations on the tracking of its spread.

Holocene fire, vegetation, and climate dynamics inferred from charcoal and pollen record in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Wenwei; Zhao, Yan; Qin, Feng

2017-10-01

Understanding fire history and its driving mechanisms can provide valuable insights into present fire regime (intensity, severity and frequency), the interplay between vegetation and fire, and trigger of fire activities. Here we reconstruct the Holocene fire history in the Zoige Basin on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, on the basis of sedimentary micro-charcoal record over the last 10.0 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP) and discuss the influences of vegetation and climate on fire dynamics. Our results show that regional fire was active at 10.0-3.3 ka and a significant decrease in fire activity characterized the period after 3.3 ka. The high regional fire frequency at 10.0-3.3 ka is consistent with the forested landscape suggested by high affinity scores of cool mixed forest biome (mainly consisted of spruce), implying that fire dynamics during this period was generally controlled by the variations of arboreal biomass and summer temperature. During 6.3-4.6 ka the prevailing Asian summer monsoon provided increased moisture to this region and thus suppressed fire activities to an extent, despite the availability of abundant biomass. Declined tree biomass after 3.3 ka probably accounted for the decreased fire activities. In addition, two successive fire events at ca. 3.5-3.3 ka were likely responsible for the subsequent abrupt decline of forest components in the landscape.

Influence of body condition on the population dynamics of Atlantic salmon with consideration of the potential impact of sea lice.

PubMed

Susdorf, R; Salama, N K G; Lusseau, D

2017-11-21

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar is an iconic species of high conservation and economic importance. At sea, individuals typically are subject to sea lice infestation, which can have detrimental effects on their host. Over recent decades, the body condition and marine survival in NE Atlantic stocks have generally decreased, reflected in fewer adults returning to rivers, which is partly attributable to sea lice. We developed a deterministic stage-structured population model to assess condition-mediated population dynamics resulting in changing fecundity, age at sexual maturation and marine survival rate. The model is parameterized using data from the North Esk system, north-east Scotland. Both constant and density-dependent juvenile survival rates are considered. We show that even small sea lice-mediated changes in mean body condition of MSW can cause substantial population declines, whereas 1SW condition is less influential. Density dependence alleviates the condition-mediated population effect. The resilience of the population to demographic perturbations declines as adult condition is reduced. Indirect demographic changes in salmonid life-history traits (e.g., body condition) are often considered unimportant for population trajectory. The model shows that Atlantic salmon population dynamics can be highly responsive to sea lice-mediated effects on adult body condition, thus highlighting the importance of non-lethal parasitic long-term effects. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Fish Diseases Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor

PubMed Central

Kroll, Andrew J.; Jones, Jay E.; Stringer, Angela B.; Meekins, Douglas J.

2016-01-01

Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in population trends is a critical aspect of successful management of imperiled species. We evaluated territory occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), California, USA, 1990–2014. The study area possessed two unique aspects. First, timber management has occurred for over 100 years, resulting in dramatically different forest successional and structural conditions compared to other areas. Second, the barred owl (Strix varia), an exotic congener known to exert significant negative effects on spotted owls, has not colonized the study area. We used a Bayesian dynamic multistate model to evaluate if territory occupancy of reproductive spotted owls has declined as in other study areas. The state-space approach for dynamic multistate modeling imputes the number of territories for each nesting state and allows for the estimation of longer-term trends in occupied or reproductive territories from longitudinal studies. The multistate approach accounts for different detection probabilities by nesting state (to account for either inherent differences in detection or for the use of different survey methods for different occupancy states) and reduces bias in state assignment. Estimated linear trends in the number of reproductive territories suggested an average loss of approximately one half territory per year (-0.55, 90% CRI: -0.76, -0.33), in one management block and a loss of 0.15 per year (-0.15, 90% CRI: -0.24, -0.07), in another management block during the 25 year observation period. Estimated trends in the third management block were also negative, but substantial uncertainty existed in the estimate (-0.09, 90% CRI: -0.35, 0.17). Our results indicate that the number of territories occupied by northern spotted owl pairs remained relatively constant over a 25 year period (-0.07, 90% CRI: -0.20, 0.05; -0.01, 90% CRI: -0.19, 0.16; -0.16, 90% CRI: -0.40, 0.06). However, we cannot exclude small-to-moderate declines or increases in paired territory numbers due to uncertainty in our estimates. Collectively, we conclude spotted owl pair populations on this landscape managed for commercial timber production appear to be more stable and do not show sharp year-over-year declines seen in both managed and unmanaged landscapes with substantial barred owl colonization and persistence. Continued monitoring of reproductive territories can determine whether recent declines continue or whether trends reverse as they have on four previous occasions. Experimental investigations to evaluate changes to spotted owl occupancy dynamics when barred owl populations are reduced or removed entirely can confirm the generality of this conclusion. PMID:27065016

Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations' Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities.

PubMed

Weatherdon, Lauren V; Ota, Yoshitaka; Jones, Miranda C; Close, David A; Cheung, William W L

2016-01-01

Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade(-1) by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations' territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived from local fishers' knowledge.

White-tailed deer population dynamics and adult female survival in the presence of a novel predator: Deer Population Dynamics

DOE PAGES

Chitwood, Michael C.; Lashley, Marcus A.; Kilgo, John C.; ...

2015-02-01

Recent localized declines in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) populations in the southeastern United States have been linked to increasing predation pressure from coyotes ( Canis latrans), a novel predator to the region. Studies have documented coyotes as the leading cause of mortality for neonates, and 1 study documented coyotes as a mortality factor for adult females. However, no study has used field-based vital rates to conduct sensitivity analyses or model deer population trajectories under potential harvest or predator removal strategies. We used low, medium, and high values of fawn survival, adult female survival, and fecundity data collected from Fortmore » Bragg Military Installation, North Carolina to demonstrate the current declining population trajectory for deer (λ = 0.905; low λ = 0.788, high λ = 1.003). Consistent with other studies of ungulates, we determined adult female survival was the most sensitive and elastic vital rate. Further, for 3 potential management (“what if”) scenarios, we projected the population for 10 years using estimated vital rates. Reducing adult female harvest (λ = 0.935; low λ = 0.875, high λ = 1.002) and coyote removal (λ = 0.995; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.081) reduced the current population decline, whereas combining both approaches (λ = 1.024; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.141) resulted in population increases. Our data indicate that for low-density deer populations with heavy predation pressure on neonates, protecting adult females from harvest may not completely offset population declines. Coyote removal might be a necessary strategy because it could possibly increase very low fawn survival, which appears to be the most important vital rate influencing λ in our study. However, managers may have to start with reductions in adult female harvest because coyote removal would have to be continuous and consistently effective, making it an impractical management approach by itself.« less

Late Holocene forest dynamics in the Gulf of Gaeta (central Mediterranean) in relation to NAO variability and human impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Rita, Federico; Lirer, Fabrizio; Bonomo, Sergio; Cascella, Antonio; Ferraro, Luciana; Florindo, Fabio; Insinga, Donatella Domenica; Lurcock, Pontus Conrad; Margaritelli, Giulia; Petrosino, Paola; Rettori, Roberto; Vallefuoco, Mattia; Magri, Donatella

2018-01-01

A new high-resolution pollen record, spanning the last five millennia, is presented from the Gulf of Gaeta (Tyrrhenian Sea, central Italy), with the aim of verifying if any vegetation change occurred in the central Mediterranean region in relation to specific well-known global and/or regional climate events, including the 4.2 ka event, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), and to detect possible vegetation changes related to still under-investigated climate signals, for example the so-called "Bond 2" cold event around 2.8 ka BP. The vegetation dynamics of the Gaeta record shows a recurrent pattern of forest increase and decline punctuating the mid- and late Holocene. When the timing of these patterns is compared with the climate proxy data available from the same core (planktonic foraminifera assemblages and oxygen stable isotope record) and with the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index, it clearly appears that the main driver for the forest fluctuations is climate, which may even overshadow the effects of human activity. We have found a clear correspondence between phases with negative NAO index and forest declines. In particular, around 4200 cal BP, a drop in AP (Arboreal Pollen) confirms the clearance recorded in many sites in Italy south of 43°N. Around 2800 cal BP, a vegetation change towards open conditions is found at a time when the NAO index clearly shows negative values. Between 800 and 1000 AD, a remarkable forest decline, coeval with a decrease in the frequencies of both Castanea and Olea, matches a shift in the oxygen isotope record towards positive values, indicating cooler temperatures, and a negative NAO. Between 1400-1850 AD, in the time period chronologically corresponding to the LIA (Little Ice Age), the Gaeta record shows a clear decline of the forest cover, particularly evident after 1550 AD, once again in correspondence with negative NAO index.

Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities

PubMed Central

Weatherdon, Lauren V.; Ota, Yoshitaka; Jones, Miranda C.; Close, David A.; Cheung, William W. L.

2016-01-01

Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade-1 by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations’ territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived from local fishers’ knowledge. PMID:26761439

White-tailed deer population dynamics and adult female survival in the presence of a novel predator: Deer Population Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chitwood, Michael C.; Lashley, Marcus A.; Kilgo, John C.

Recent localized declines in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) populations in the southeastern United States have been linked to increasing predation pressure from coyotes ( Canis latrans), a novel predator to the region. Studies have documented coyotes as the leading cause of mortality for neonates, and 1 study documented coyotes as a mortality factor for adult females. However, no study has used field-based vital rates to conduct sensitivity analyses or model deer population trajectories under potential harvest or predator removal strategies. We used low, medium, and high values of fawn survival, adult female survival, and fecundity data collected from Fortmore » Bragg Military Installation, North Carolina to demonstrate the current declining population trajectory for deer (λ = 0.905; low λ = 0.788, high λ = 1.003). Consistent with other studies of ungulates, we determined adult female survival was the most sensitive and elastic vital rate. Further, for 3 potential management (“what if”) scenarios, we projected the population for 10 years using estimated vital rates. Reducing adult female harvest (λ = 0.935; low λ = 0.875, high λ = 1.002) and coyote removal (λ = 0.995; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.081) reduced the current population decline, whereas combining both approaches (λ = 1.024; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.141) resulted in population increases. Our data indicate that for low-density deer populations with heavy predation pressure on neonates, protecting adult females from harvest may not completely offset population declines. Coyote removal might be a necessary strategy because it could possibly increase very low fawn survival, which appears to be the most important vital rate influencing λ in our study. However, managers may have to start with reductions in adult female harvest because coyote removal would have to be continuous and consistently effective, making it an impractical management approach by itself.« less

Climate Variations and Alaska Tundra Vegetation Productivity Declines in Spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Bieniek, P.; Raynolds, M. K.; Epstein, H. E.; Comiso, J. C.; Pinzon, J. E.; Tucker, C. J.

2015-12-01

While sea ice has continued to decline, vegetation productivity increases have declined particularly during spring in Alaska as well as many parts of the Arctic tundra. To understand the processes behind these features we investigate spring climate variations that includes temperature, circulation patterns, and snow cover to determine how these may be contributing to spring browning. This study employs remotely sensed weekly 25-km sea ice concentration, weekly surface temperature, and bi-weekly NDVI from 1982 to 2014. Maximum NDVI (MaxNDVI, Maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), Time Integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI), Summer Warmth Index (SWI, sum of degree months above freezing during May-August), atmospheric reanalysis data, dynamically downscaled climate data, meteorological station data, and snow water equivalent (GlobSnow, assimilated snow data set). We analyzed the data for the full period (1982-2014) and for two sub-periods (1982-1998 and 1999-2014), which were chosen based on the declining Alaska SWI since 1998. MaxNDVI has increased from 1982-2014 over most of the Arctic but has declined from 1999 to 2014 southwest Alaska. TI-NDVI has trends that are similar to those for MaxNDVI for the full period but display widespread declines over the 1999-2014 period. Therefore, as the MaxNDVI has continued to increase overall for the Arctic, TI-NDVI has been declining since 1999 and these declines are particularly noteworthy during spring in Alaska. Spring declines in Alaska have been linked to increased spring snow cover that can delay greenup (Bieniek et al. 2015) but recent ground observations suggest that after an initial warming and greening, late season freezing temperature are damaging the plants. The late season freezing temperature hypothesis will be explored with meteorological climate/weather data sets for Alaska tundra regions. References P.A. Bieniek, US Bhatt, DA Walker, MK Raynolds, JC Comiso, HE Epstein, JE Pinzon, CJ Tucker, RL Thoman, H Tran, N Mölders, M Steele, J Zhang, and W Ermold, 2015: Climate drivers of changing seasonality of Alaska coastal tundra vegetation productivity, (conditionally accepted) Earth Interactions.

The Importance of Dispersal for Bacterial Community Composition and Functioning

PubMed Central

Lindström, Eva S.; Östman, Örjan

2011-01-01

We conducted a metacommunity experiment to investigate the role of dispersal for bacterial community composition (BCC) and function of freshwater bacteria. Bacteria were dispersed from a common source pool into three different lake communities in their natural lake water. The experiment was conducted in dialysis bags to enable a decoupling between a change in the local environment and dispersal. BCC was determined by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (tRFLP) of the 16S rRNA gene. We show that the greatest changes in BCC occurred between 10% and 43% of dispersal of standing stock per day. Functioning, measured as growth rate, was also affected by dispersal in all three communities but the qualitative pattern differed between communities, sometimes showing a hump-shaped relationship to dispersal and sometimes decreasing with increasing dispersal. In all waters, functioning was related to BCC. Our results show that dispersal does affect BCC and functioning but that high dispersal rates are needed. Further, the effect of dispersal on BCC and function seem to depend on the quality of the habitat to which bacteria disperse into. PMID:21998714

Infant and Adult Gut Microbiome and Metabolome in Rural Bassa and Urban Settlers from Nigeria.

PubMed

Ayeni, Funmilola A; Biagi, Elena; Rampelli, Simone; Fiori, Jessica; Soverini, Matteo; Audu, Haruna J; Cristino, Sandra; Caporali, Leonardo; Schnorr, Stephanie L; Carelli, Valerio; Brigidi, Patrizia; Candela, Marco; Turroni, Silvia

2018-06-05

We assessed the subsistence-related variation of the human gut microbiome at a fine resolution for two of the main dimensions of microbiome variation, age and geography. For this, we investigated the fecal microbiome and metabolome in rural Bassa and urbanized individuals from Nigeria, including infants, and compared data with worldwide populations practicing varying subsistence. Our data highlight specific microbiome traits that are progressively lost with urbanization, such as the dominance of pristine fiber degraders and the low inter-individual variation. For the Bassa, this last feature is the result of their subsistence-related practices favoring microbial dispersal, such as their extensive environmental contact and the usage of untreated waters from the Usuma River. The high degree of microbial dispersal observed in the Bassa meta-community nullifies the differences between infant and adult intestinal ecosystems, suggesting that the infant-type microbiome in Western populations could be the result of microbiome-associated neotenic traits favored by urbanization. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Metacommunity analysis of amoeboid protists in grassland soils

PubMed Central

Fiore-Donno, Anna Maria; Weinert, Jan; Wubet, Tesfaye; Bonkowski, Michael

2016-01-01

This study reveals the diversity and distribution of two major ubiquitous groups of soil amoebae, the genus Acanthamoeba and the Myxomycetes (plasmodial slime-moulds) that are rarely, if ever, recovered in environmental sampling studies. We analyzed 150 grassland soil samples from three Biodiversity Exploratories study regions in Germany. We developed specific primers targeting the V2 variable region in the first part of the small subunit of the ribosomal RNA gene for high-throughput pyrotag sequencing. From ca. 1 million reads, applying very stringent filtering and clustering parameters to avoid overestimation of the diversity, we obtained 273 acanthamoebal and 338 myxomycete operational taxonomic units (OTUs, 96% similarity threshold). This number is consistent with the genetic diversity known in the two investigated lineages, but unequalled to date by any environmental sampling study. Only very few OTUs were identical to already known sequences. Strikingly different OTUs assemblages were found between the three German regions (PerMANOVA p.value = 0.001) and even between sites of the same region (multiple-site Simpson-based similarity indices <0.4), showing steep biogeographical gradients. PMID:26750872

Metacommunity analysis of amoeboid protists in grassland soils.

PubMed

Fiore-Donno, Anna Maria; Weinert, Jan; Wubet, Tesfaye; Bonkowski, Michael

2016-01-11

This study reveals the diversity and distribution of two major ubiquitous groups of soil amoebae, the genus Acanthamoeba and the Myxomycetes (plasmodial slime-moulds) that are rarely, if ever, recovered in environmental sampling studies. We analyzed 150 grassland soil samples from three Biodiversity Exploratories study regions in Germany. We developed specific primers targeting the V2 variable region in the first part of the small subunit of the ribosomal RNA gene for high-throughput pyrotag sequencing. From ca. 1 million reads, applying very stringent filtering and clustering parameters to avoid overestimation of the diversity, we obtained 273 acanthamoebal and 338 myxomycete operational taxonomic units (OTUs, 96% similarity threshold). This number is consistent with the genetic diversity known in the two investigated lineages, but unequalled to date by any environmental sampling study. Only very few OTUs were identical to already known sequences. Strikingly different OTUs assemblages were found between the three German regions (PerMANOVA p.value = 0.001) and even between sites of the same region (multiple-site Simpson-based similarity indices <0.4), showing steep biogeographical gradients.

[The cognitive-behavioral aspects of the personality of politicians].

PubMed

Resch, Mária; Bella, Tamás

2010-01-17

At the research of the personality of politicians, the task is not psychopathology and thereby the diagnose of a certain illness, but the identification of those features, characteristic marks and the examination of those cognitive functions, attitudes that might affect the ability to lead, might influence the managerial and negotiating style as well as the decisions made during an eventual crisis. Basically, there are two approaches considering the role of personality in politics. The first one regards political events as a projection of the personality of the leading politician; the other one denies entirely the significance of the personality. With reference to the first school, the aim of the present essay is, from among the examinations of the personality of the politician by indirect and direct methods, the determination of the cognitive and behavioral marks connected to the last method. Among the indirect examinations are the analysis of speeches and interviews (psycholinguistics), the reflection of the metacommunicative marks and the psychological elaboration of biographical data (psychobiography). The character of the leading politician is important with respect to image building, campaign work and party competition, "survival".

On the proportional abundance of species: Integrating population genetics and community ecology.

PubMed

Marquet, Pablo A; Espinoza, Guillermo; Abades, Sebastian R; Ganz, Angela; Rebolledo, Rolando

2017-12-01

The frequency of genes in interconnected populations and of species in interconnected communities are affected by similar processes, such as birth, death and immigration. The equilibrium distribution of gene frequencies in structured populations is known since the 1930s, under Wright's metapopulation model known as the island model. The equivalent distribution for the species frequency (i.e. the species proportional abundance distribution (SPAD)), at the metacommunity level, however, is unknown. In this contribution, we develop a stochastic model to analytically account for this distribution (SPAD). We show that the same as for genes SPAD follows a beta distribution, which provides a good description of empirical data and applies across a continuum of scales. This stochastic model, based upon a diffusion approximation, provides an alternative to neutral models for the species abundance distribution (SAD), which focus on number of individuals instead of proportions, and demonstrate that the relative frequency of genes in local populations and of species within communities follow the same probability law. We hope our contribution will help stimulate the mathematical and conceptual integration of theories in genetics and ecology.

Study on the PTC/NTC effect of carbon black-filled polymer composites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Hao; Chen, Xinfang; Luo, Yunxia

1995-12-01

In this work, the effect of processing condition and radiation-crosslinking on the electrical and dynamic behaviors of carbon black filled low density polyethylene (LDPE) composites were investigated. Compared with the solution counterpart, the mechanical composites have a strong PTC effect and a great dynamic elastic mold, which results from the strong interaction between carbon black and LDPE. The experiment result shows that the NTC effect is caused by the decrease of elastic mold of LDPE at high temperature, and it can be declined significantly by radiation-crosslinking. We conclude that the strong interaction between polymer and carbon black is essentially importantmore » for composites to have a great PTC intensity good electrical reproducibility and high dynamic elastic sold.« less

Local and global influences on population declines of coastal waders: Purple Sandpiper Calidris maritima numbers in the Moray Firth, Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summers, Ron W.; Foster, Simon; Swann, Bob; Etheridge, Brian

2012-05-01

Declines in numbers by several wader species in Britain have been linked to climate change, but the mechanism for the declines has rarely been explored. Britain lies at the northern end of the East Atlantic Flyway, and supports 1.3 million out of the Flyway's 8.5 million coastal waders (Charadrii) in winter and the Purple Sandpiper is one of the species whose numbers have declined. Here, we examine the dynamics of the decline as observed in the Moray Firth, northeast Scotland, investigating whether the decline was due to poorer apparent survival (return rate) or poorer recruitment of young birds. The maximum number in the Moray Firth declined from 860 in 1987/88 to 236 in 2006/07, with some increase during winters 2007/08 and 2008/09. At the three main high-tide roosts (Balintore, Lossiemouth and Buckie) the maximum combined number declined from 574 to 90. Changes in survival and recruitment (percentage of first-year birds) were examined at these roosts from captured samples, which were ringed and recaptured. There were no significant changes between winters in survival rates, nor were there differences between the survival rates of age groups (first-year and adult) or bill size groups, which represented birds of different sex and breeding origin. Annual survival estimates for the three roosts ranged from 72 to 77%. The percentage of first-year birds varied among roosts and years; the lowest values were during the late 1980s/early 1990s and early 2000s. A free-running population model incorporating varying percentages of first-year birds and constant mortality for each roost provided a plausible explanation for the decline. Although modelled numbers followed the observed pattern, a discrepancy in one year was carried forward in subsequent years, so that the fit with the observed numbers was parallel rather than similar. However, it seems that the decline in numbers was largely due to poorer recruitment. We discuss whether breeding success had declined, whether the population had responded to changes in the local sewage treatment systems, which could affect invertebrate food for Purple Sandpipers, or whether fewer birds chose to winter in Scotland. The Moray Firth population is derived from Norway and possibly Canada, and there is evidence that the Norwegian population was disproportionately affected. The reason for poor recruitment requires further study, and other wader species require examination to test if poor recruitment is a common feature of decline in numbers.

Annual observations of conspicuous canker activity on whitebark pine (2003 to 2007)

Treesearch

Michael P. Murray

2011-01-01

Whitebark pine's (Pinus albicaulis) notable ecological values, combined with its precarious state, underscore the need for monitoring its health and dynamics. Populations of whitebark pine are in decline throughout most of its range. White pine blister rust, caused by the fungus Cronartium ribicola, has denuded stands since introduction during the early 1900s (...

Harvest Trails in Australia: Patterns of Seasonal Migration in the Fruit and Vegetable Industry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanson, Jayde; Bell, Martin

2007-01-01

Against a background of declining employment in agriculture, a mobile workforce plays a crucial role in meeting seasonal labour demand in Australia. The dynamics of this labour force have received surprisingly little attention. We situate seasonal migration within the rising diversity of present-day mobility, and capture images of its early…

Child Labor in the World Polity: Decline and Persistence, 1980-2000

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Rob

2011-01-01

From 1980 to 2000, child labor rates across the world fell by more than a quarter. Much of the explanation for this decrease resides in development processes broadly associated with the demographic transition. Net of these internal dynamics, however, globalization may also have played a role. Previous studies have examined the effect of trade and…

Farm Persistence and Adaptation at the Rural-Urban Interface: Succession and Farm Adjustment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Inwood, Shoshanah M.; Sharp, Jeff S.

2012-01-01

Despite assumptions that agriculture will automatically go into a mode of decline at the Rural Urban Interface (RUI), official statistics suggest that agriculture as a whole remains a strong (and in some cases a growing) industry in many U.S. RUI counties. RUI scholars have acknowledged internal family dynamics can significantly influence farm…

Genetic Variance in Processing Speed Drives Variation in Aging of Spatial and Memory Abilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finkel, Deborah; Reynolds, Chandra A.; McArdle, John J.; Hamagami, Fumiaki; Pedersen, Nancy L.

2009-01-01

Previous analyses have identified a genetic contribution to the correlation between declines with age in processing speed and higher cognitive abilities. The goal of the current analysis was to apply the biometric dual change score model to consider the possibility of temporal dynamics underlying the genetic covariance between aging trajectories…

Modeling population dynamics and woody biomass of Alaska coastal forest

Treesearch

Randy L. Peterson; Jingjing Liang; Tara M. Barrett

2014-01-01

Alaska coastal forest, 6.2 million ha in size, has been managed in the past mainly through clearcutting. Declining harvest and dwindling commercial forest resources over the past 2 decades have led to increased interest in management of young-growth stands and utilization of woody biomass for bioenergy. However, existing models to support these new management systems...

Home Range, Habitat Selection, and Population Dynamics of Southern Flying Squirrels in Managed Forests in Arkansas

Treesearch

James F. Taulman; Kimberly G. Smith

2004-01-01

Abstract After experimental harvests on 18 mature pine-hardwood stands in 6 replicated groups, flying squirrels changed from uniform pre-harvest patterns of nest box use to concentrating on protected greenbelt (GB) areas on harvested stands. Squirrel densities declined on all harvested stands as densities increased on three control stands. Fifty...

The Poor Little Rich District: The Effects of Suburbanization on a Rural School and Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howley, Aimee; Carnes, Marilyn; Eldridge, Anita; Huber, Donna; Lado, Longun Moses; Kotler, Ruth; Turner, Maryalice

2005-01-01

Contextualized in relationship to other case studies about rural districts that have experienced population growth and decline as well as in relationship to the small sociological literature on "boom towns," this study considered the dynamics that seem to be interfering with one previously rural and now suburbanizing district's ability to address…

Cassin's Sparrow (Aimophila cassinii) status assessment and conservation plan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruth, Janet M.

2000-01-01

The greatest needs are for determining of the causes of significant declines where they occur, determining of the effects of various management activities on Cassin’s Sparrow throughout its range, improved assessments of population and trends, and a better understanding of the annual population and distribution dynamics of this species, which shows such dramatic annual distributional fluctuations.

The Decline of Competition: A Study of Cooperative Approaches to University Research Management. ASHE Annual Meeting Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holland, Barbara A.

This paper analyzes the organizational strategies and dynamics of cooperation appropriate to research consortia. The experiences of nine existing research consortia are reviewed in an effort to propose guidelines for practice in the design of research consortia, and to expand understanding of the nature of interinstitutional cooperation. The nine…

In-situ Fluorometers Reveal High Frequency Dynamics In Dissolved Organic Matter For Urban Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croghan, D.; Bradley, C.; Khamis, K.; Hannah, D. M.; Sadler, J. P.; Van Loon, A.

2017-12-01

To-date Dissolved Organic Matter (DOM) dynamics have been quantified poorly in urban rivers, despite the substantial water quality issues linked to urbanisation. Research has been hindered by the low temporal resolution of observations and over-reliance on manual sampling which often fail to capture precipitation events and diurnal dynamics. High frequency data are essential to estimate more accurately DOM fluxes/loads and to understand DOM furnishing and transport processes. Recent advances in optical sensor technology, including field deployable in-situ fluorometers, are yielding new high resolution DOM information. However, no consensus regarding the monitoring resolution required for urban systems exists, with no studies monitoring at <15 min time steps. High-frequency monitoring (5 min resolution; 4 week duration) was conducted on a headwater urban stream in Birmingham, UK (N 52.447430 W -1.936715) to determine the optimum temporal resolution for characterization of DOM event dynamics. A through-flow GGNU-30 monitored wavelengths corresponding to tryptophan-like fluorescence (TLF; Peak T1) (Ex 285 nm/ Em 345 nm) and humic-like fluorescence (HLF; Peak C) (Ex 365 nm/Em 490 nm). The results suggest that at base flow TLF and HLF are relatively stable, though episodic DOM inputs can pulse through the system, which may be missed during lower temporal resolution monitoring. High temporal variation occurs during storm events in TLF and HLF intensity: TLF intensity is highest during the rising limb of the hydrograph and can rapidly decline thereafter, indicating the importance of fast flow-path and close proximity sources to TLF dynamics. HLF intensity tracks discharge more closely, but can also quickly decline during high flow events due to dilution effects. Furthermore, the ratio of TLF:HLF when derived at high-frequency provides a useful indication of the presence and type of organic effluents in stream, which aids in the identification of Combined Sewage Overflow releases. Our work highlights the need for future studies to utilise shorter temporal scales than previously used to monitor urban DOM dynamics. The application of higher frequency monitoring enables the identification of finer-scale patterns and subsequently aids in deciphering the sources and pathways controlling urban DOM dynamics.

Contrasting Olfaction, Vision, and Audition as Predictors of Cognitive Change and Impairment in Non-Demented Older Adults

PubMed Central

MacDonald, Stuart W.S.; Keller, Connor J.C.; Brewster, Paul W.H.; Dixon, Roger A.

2017-01-01

Objective This study examines the relative utility of a particular class of non-invasive functional biomarkers -- sensory functions -- for detecting those at risk of cognitive decline and impairment. Three central research objectives were examined including whether: (1) olfactory function, vision, and audition exhibited significant longitudinal declines in non-demented older adults, (2) multi-wave change for these sensory function indicators predicted risk of mild cognitive impairment, and (3) change within persons for each sensory measure shared dynamic time-varying associations with within-person change in cognitive functioning. Method A longitudinal sample (n=408) from the Victoria Longitudinal Study was assembled. Three cognitive status subgroups were identified: not impaired cognitively (NIC), single assessment mild cognitive impairment (SA-MCI), and multiple assessment mild cognitive impairment (MA-MCI). Results We tested independent predictive associations, contrasting change in sensory function as predictors of cognitive decline and impairment, utilizing both linear mixed models and logistic regression analysis. Olfaction and, to a lesser extent, vision were identified as the most robust predictors of cognitive status and decline; audition showed little predictive influence. Conclusions These findings underscore the potential utility of deficits in olfactory function, in particular, as an early marker of age- and pathology-related cognitive decline. Functional biomarkers may represent potential candidates for use in the early stages of a multi-step screening approach for detecting those at risk of cognitive impairment, as well as for targeted intervention. PMID:29809033

Fronto-Parietal Subnetworks Flexibility Compensates For Cognitive Decline Due To Mental Fatigue.

PubMed

Taya, Fumihiko; Dimitriadis, Stavros I; Dragomir, Andrei; Lim, Julian; Sun, Yu; Wong, Kian Foong; Thakor, Nitish V; Bezerianos, Anastasios

2018-04-24

Fronto-parietal subnetworks were revealed to compensate for cognitive decline due to mental fatigue by community structure analysis. Here, we investigate changes in topology of subnetworks of resting-state fMRI networks due to mental fatigue induced by prolonged performance of a cognitively demanding task, and their associations with cognitive decline. As it is well established that brain networks have modular organization, community structure analyses can provide valuable information about mesoscale network organization and serve as a bridge between standard fMRI approaches and brain connectomics that quantify the topology of whole brain networks. We developed inter- and intramodule network metrics to quantify topological characteristics of subnetworks, based on our hypothesis that mental fatigue would impact on functional relationships of subnetworks. Functional networks were constructed with wavelet correlation and a data-driven thresholding scheme based on orthogonal minimum spanning trees, which allowed detection of communities with weak connections. A change from pre- to posttask runs was found for the intermodule density between the frontal and the temporal subnetworks. Seven inter- or intramodule network metrics, mostly at the frontal or the parietal subnetworks, showed significant predictive power of individual cognitive decline, while the network metrics for the whole network were less effective in the predictions. Our results suggest that the control-type fronto-parietal networks have a flexible topological architecture to compensate for declining cognitive ability due to mental fatigue. This community structure analysis provides valuable insight into connectivity dynamics under different cognitive states including mental fatigue. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Are ungulates in forests concerns or key species for conservation and biodiversity? Reply to Boulanger et al. (DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13899).

PubMed

Fløjgaard, Camilla; Bruun, Hans Henrik; Hansen, Morten D D; Heilmann-Clausen, Jacob; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Ejrnaes, Rasmus

2018-03-01

Increasing species richness of light demanding species in forests may not be a conservation concern if we accept a macroecological and evolutionary baseline for biodiversity. Most of the current biodiversity in Europe has evolved in the Pleistocene or earlier, and in ecosystems markedly influenced by dynamic natural processes, including grazing. Many threatened species are associated with high-light forest environments such as forest glades and edges, as these have strongly declined at least partially due to the decline of large herbivores in European forests. Hence, moderate grazing in forests should be an ecological baseline and conservation target rather than a concern. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Investigating Rates of Hunting and Survival in Declining European Lapwing Populations

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Understanding effects of harvest on population dynamics is of major interest, especially for declining species. European lapwing Vanellus vanellus populations increased from the 1960s until the 1980s and declined strongly thereafter. About 400,000 lapwings are harvested annually and it is thus of high conservation relevance to assess whether hunting was a main cause for the observed changes in lapwing population trends. We developed a multi-event cause-specific mortality model which we applied to a long-term ring-recovery data set (1960–2010) of > 360,000 records to estimate survival and cause-specific mortalities. We found no temporal change in survival over the last 50 years for first-year (FY) and older birds (after first-year; AFY) originating from different ringing areas. Mean survival was high, around 0.60 and 0.80 for FY and AFY individuals, respectively. The proportion of total mortality due to hunting was <0.10 over the study period and the estimated proportion of harvested individuals (kill rate) was <0.05 in each year. Our result of constant survival indicates that demographic processes other than survival were responsible for the pronounced change in lapwing population trends in the 1980s. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that hunting was not a significant contributor to the large-scale decline of lapwing populations. To halt the ongoing decline of European lapwing populations management should focus on life history stages other than survival (e.g. productivity). Further analyses are required to investigate the contribution of other demographic rates to the decline of lapwings and to identify the most efficient conservation actions. PMID:27685660

Dynamic hyperinflation after metronome-paced hyperventilation in COPD--a 2 year follow-up.

PubMed

Hannink, Jorien; Lahaije, Anke; Bischoff, Erik; van Helvoort, Hanneke; Dekhuijzen, Richard; Schermer, Tjard; Heijdra, Yvonne

2010-11-01

In contrast to the decline in FEV(1), the behavior of dynamic hyperinflation (DH) over time is unknown in patients with COPD. Metronome-paced hyperventilation (MPH) is a simple applicable surrogate for exercise to detect DH. To evaluate changes in MPH-induced DH during two years follow-up in mild-to-severe COPD patients. Additionally, influence of smoking status on DH and the relation between DH and other lung function parameters were assessed. Patients were recruited from a randomized controlled trial conducted in general practice. Measurements of lung function and DH were performed at baseline and after 12 and 24 months. DH was assessed by MPH with breathing frequency set at twice the baseline rate. Change in inspiratory capacity after MPH was used to reflect change in end-expiratory lung volume and therefore DH, presuming constant total lung capacity. During follow-up, 68 patients completed all measurements. DH increased by 0.23±0.06L (p≤0.001). No significant changes in FEV(1) %pred were seen. Smokers had lower FEV(1) and a more rapid decline than non-smokers. DH in smokers increased more over time compared to non-smokers. The amount of DH correlated positively with resting inspiratory capacity. After two years, a significant increase in MPH-induced DH in COPD patients was demonstrated, which was not accompanied by a decline in FEV(1). It might be that DH is a sensitive measure to track consequences of changes in airflow obstruction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is the State of the Air-Sea Interface a Factor in Rapid Intensification and Rapid Decline of Tropical Cyclones?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soloviev, Alexander V.; Lukas, Roger; Donelan, Mark A.; Haus, Brian K.; Ginis, Isaac

2017-12-01

Tropical storm intensity prediction remains a challenge in tropical meteorology. Some tropical storms undergo dramatic rapid intensification and rapid decline. Hurricane researchers have considered particular ambient environmental conditions including the ocean thermal and salinity structure and internal vortex dynamics (e.g., eyewall replacement cycle, hot towers) as factors creating favorable conditions for rapid intensification. At this point, however, it is not exactly known to what extent the state of the sea surface controls tropical cyclone dynamics. Theoretical considerations, laboratory experiments, and numerical simulations suggest that the air-sea interface under tropical cyclones is subject to the Kelvin-Helmholtz type instability. Ejection of large quantities of spray particles due to this instability can produce a two-phase environment, which can attenuate gravity-capillary waves and alter the air-sea coupling. The unified parameterization of waveform and two-phase drag based on the physics of the air-sea interface shows the increase of the aerodynamic drag coefficient Cd with wind speed up to hurricane force (U10≈35 m s-1). Remarkably, there is a local Cd minimum—"an aerodynamic drag well"—at around U10≈60 m s-1. The negative slope of the Cd dependence on wind-speed between approximately 35 and 60 m s-1 favors rapid storm intensification. In contrast, the positive slope of Cd wind-speed dependence above 60 m s-1 is favorable for a rapid storm decline of the most powerful storms. In fact, the storms that intensify to Category 5 usually rapidly weaken afterward.

Telomere length dynamics in human memory T cells specific for viruses causing acute or latent infections

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Declining telomere length (TL) is associated with T cell senescence. While TL in naïve and memory T cells declines with increasing age, there is limited data on TL dynamics in virus-specific memory CD4+ T cells in healthy adults. We combined BrdU-labeling of virus-stimulated T cells followed with flow cytometry-fluorescent in situ hybridization for TL determination. We analyzed TL in T cells specific for several virus infections: non-recurring acute (vaccinia virus, VACV), recurring-acute (influenza A virus, IAV), and reactivating viruses (varicella-zoster virus, VZV, and cytomegalovirus, CMV) in 10 healthy subjects. Additionally, five subjects provided multiple blood samples separated by up to 10 years. Results VACV- and CMV-specific T cells had longer average TL than IAV-specific CD4+ T cells. Although most virus-specific cells were CD45RA-, we observed a minor population of BrdU+ CD45RA+ T cells characterized by long telomeres. Longitudinal analysis demonstrated a slow decline in average TL in virus-specific T cells. However, in one subject, VZV reactivation led to an increase in average TL in VZV-specific memory T cells, suggesting a conversion of longer TL cells from the naïve T cell repertoire. Conclusions TLs in memory CD4+ T cells in otherwise healthy adults are heterogeneous and follow distinct virus-specific kinetics. These findings suggests that the distribution of TL and the creation and maintenance of long TL memory T cells could be important for the persistence of long-lived T cell memory. PMID:23971624

Telomere length dynamics in human memory T cells specific for viruses causing acute or latent infections.

PubMed

O'Bryan, Joel M; Woda, Marcia; Co, Mary; Mathew, Anuja; Rothman, Alan L

2013-08-26

Declining telomere length (TL) is associated with T cell senescence. While TL in naïve and memory T cells declines with increasing age, there is limited data on TL dynamics in virus-specific memory CD4+ T cells in healthy adults. We combined BrdU-labeling of virus-stimulated T cells followed with flow cytometry-fluorescent in situ hybridization for TL determination. We analyzed TL in T cells specific for several virus infections: non-recurring acute (vaccinia virus, VACV), recurring-acute (influenza A virus, IAV), and reactivating viruses (varicella-zoster virus, VZV, and cytomegalovirus, CMV) in 10 healthy subjects. Additionally, five subjects provided multiple blood samples separated by up to 10 years. VACV- and CMV-specific T cells had longer average TL than IAV-specific CD4+ T cells. Although most virus-specific cells were CD45RA-, we observed a minor population of BrdU+ CD45RA+ T cells characterized by long telomeres. Longitudinal analysis demonstrated a slow decline in average TL in virus-specific T cells. However, in one subject, VZV reactivation led to an increase in average TL in VZV-specific memory T cells, suggesting a conversion of longer TL cells from the naïve T cell repertoire. TLs in memory CD4+ T cells in otherwise healthy adults are heterogeneous and follow distinct virus-specific kinetics. These findings suggests that the distribution of TL and the creation and maintenance of long TL memory T cells could be important for the persistence of long-lived T cell memory.

Reconciliation of Halogen-Induced Ozone Loss with the Total-Column Ozone Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, T. G.; Plummer, D. A.; Scinocca, J. F.; Hegglin, M. I.; Fioletov, V. E.; Reader, M. C.; Remsberg, E.; von Clarmann, T.; Wang, H. J.

2014-01-01

The observed depletion of the ozone layer from the 1980s onwards is attributed to halogen source gases emitted by human activities. However, the precision of this attribution is complicated by year-to-year variations in meteorology, that is, dynamical variability, and by changes in tropospheric ozone concentrations. As such, key aspects of the total-column ozone record, which combines changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, remain unexplained, such as the apparent absence of a decline in total-column ozone levels before 1980, and of any long-term decline in total-column ozone levels in the tropics. Here we use a chemistry-climate model to estimate changes in halogen-induced ozone loss between 1960 and 2010; the model is constrained by observed meteorology to remove the eects of dynamical variability, and driven by emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors to separate out changes in tropospheric ozone. We show that halogen-induced ozone loss closely followed stratospheric halogen loading over the studied period. Pronounced enhancements in ozone loss were apparent in both hemispheres following the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and, in particular, Mount Pinatubo, which significantly enhanced stratospheric aerosol loads. We further show that approximately 40% of the long-term non-volcanic ozone loss occurred before 1980, and that long-term ozone loss also occurred in the tropical stratosphere. Finally, we show that halogeninduced ozone loss has declined by over 10% since stratospheric halogen loading peaked in the late 1990s, indicating that the recovery of the ozone layer is well underway.

The response of grain production to changes in quantity and quality of cropland in Yangtze River Delta, China.

PubMed

Liu, Guilin; Zhang, Luocheng; Zhang, Qian; Musyimi, Zipporah

2015-02-01

Cropland in Yangtze River Delta has declined drastically since economic reforms in 1978 that led to rapid economic development. Such cropland loss due to population growth has led to a decline in grain production. This study aimed at analyzing the impact of land use changes on grain production. To achieve this, the spatiotemporal dynamics of cropland during 1980-2010 were analyzed. Irrigation and soil fertility data were used as additional lines of evidence. Cropland loss had negative impacts on grain production. About 80 and 66% of grain production decreased during 1980-2005 and 2005-2010 respectively. This decline was attributed to the conversion of cropland to built-up areas. Abandoned cropland areas were mainly concentrated in regions with high irrigation capability and high soil fertility, while cropland reclamation was mainly in areas with low irrigation and soil fertility, implying that, although cropland was reclaimed, production remained low. The decline in cropland area has reinforced the chronic food insecurity in Yangtze River Delta. This study demonstrated the response of grain production to the changes in cropland quantity and quality. It also provides scientific evidence for decision makers to protect cropland and enhance grain production. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Reconstructing the historical distribution of the Amur Leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) in Northeast China based on historical records

PubMed Central

Yang, Li; Huang, Mujiao; Zhang, Rui; Lv, Jiang; Ren, Yueheng; Jiang, Zhe; Zhang, Wei; Luan, Xiaofeng

2016-01-01

Abstract The range of the Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) has decreased dramatically over the last 100 years. This species is still under extreme risk of extinction and conservation efforts are rigorous. Understanding the long-term dynamics of the population decline would be helpful to offer insight into the mechanism behind the decline and endangerment and improve conservation perspectives and strategies. Historical data collection has been the challenge for reconstructing the historical distribution. In China, new gazetteers having systematic compilation and considerable local ecological data can be considered as an important complementary for reconstruction. Therefore, we have set up a data set (mainly based on the new gazetteers) in order to identify the historical range of the Amur Leopard from the 1950s to 2014. The result shows that the Amur leopard was historically widely distributed with large populations in Northeastern China, but it presented a sharp decline after the 1970s. The decline appeared from the plains to the mountains and northeast to southwest since the 1950s. Long-term historical data, mainly from new gazetteers, demonstrates that such resources are capable of tracking species change through time and offers an opportunity to reduce data shortage and enhance understanding in conservation. PMID:27408548

Studies of Microbiota Dynamics Reveals Association of "Candidatus Liberibacter Asiaticus" Infection with Citrus (Citrus sinensis) Decline in South of Iran.

PubMed

Passera, Alessandro; Alizadeh, Hamidreza; Azadvar, Mehdi; Quaglino, Fabio; Alizadeh, Asma; Casati, Paola; Bianco, Piero A

2018-06-20

Citrus Decline Disease was recently reported to affect several citrus species in Iran when grafted on a local rootstock variety, Bakraee. Preliminary studies found “ Candidatus Phytoplasma aurantifoliae” and “ Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus” as putative etiological agents, but were not ultimately able to determine which one, or if an association of both, were causing the disease. The current study has the aim of characterizing the microbiota of citrus plants that are either asymptomatic, showing early symptoms, or showing late symptoms through amplification of the V1⁻V3 region of 16S rRNA gene using an Illumina sequencer in order to (i) clarify the etiology of the disease, and (ii) describe the microbiota associated to different symptom stages. Our results suggest that liberibacter may be the main pathogen causing Citrus Decline Disease, but cannot rule out the possibility of phytoplasma being involved as well. The characterization of microbiota shows that the leaves show only two kinds of communities, either symptomatic or asymptomatic, while roots show clear distinction between early and late symptoms. These results could lead to the identification of bacteria that are related to successful plant defense response and, therefore, to immunity to the Citrus Decline Disease.

The utility of estimating population-level trajectories of terminal wellbeing decline within a growth mixture modelling framework.

PubMed

Burns, R A; Byles, J; Magliano, D J; Mitchell, P; Anstey, K J

2015-03-01

Mortality-related decline has been identified across multiple domains of human functioning, including mental health and wellbeing. The current study utilised a growth mixture modelling framework to establish whether a single population-level trajectory best describes mortality-related changes in both wellbeing and mental health, or whether subpopulations report quite different mortality-related changes. Participants were older-aged (M = 69.59 years; SD = 8.08 years) deceased females (N = 1,862) from the dynamic analyses to optimise ageing (DYNOPTA) project. Growth mixture models analysed participants' responses on measures of mental health and wellbeing for up to 16 years from death. Multi-level models confirmed overall terminal decline and terminal drop in both mental health and wellbeing. However, modelling data from the same participants within a latent class growth mixture framework indicated that most participants reported stability in mental health (90.3 %) and wellbeing (89.0 %) in the years preceding death. Whilst confirming other population-level analyses which support terminal decline and drop hypotheses in both mental health and wellbeing, we subsequently identified that most of this effect is driven by a small, but significant minority of the population. Instead, most individuals report stable levels of mental health and wellbeing in the years preceding death.

Complex life cycles and density dependence: assessing the contribution of egg mortality to amphibian declines.

PubMed

Vonesh, James R; De la Cruz, Omar

2002-11-01

In the last decade there has been increasing evidence of amphibian declines from relatively pristine areas. Some declines are hypothesized to be the result of egg mortality caused by factors such as elevated solar UV-B irradiation, chemical pollutants, pathogenic fungi, and climate change. However, the population-level consequences of egg mortality have not been examined explicitly, and may be complicated by density dependence in intervening life-history stages. Here we develop a demographic model for two amphibians with contrasting life-history strategies, Bufo boreas and Ambystoma macrodactylum. We then use the complementary approaches of elasticity and limitation to examine the relationships among stage-specific survival rates, larval-stage density dependence and amphibian population dynamics. Elasticity analyses showed that for a range of density dependence scenarios both species were more sensitive to changes in post-embryonic survival parameters, particularly juvenile survival, than to egg survival, suggesting that mortality of later stages may play an important role in driving declines. Limitation analyses revealed that larval density dependence can dramatically alter the consequences of early mortality, reducing or even reversing the expected population-level effects of egg mortality. Thus, greater focus on later life stages and density dependence is called for to accurately assess how stressors are likely to affect amphibian populations of conservation concern.

Reconstructing the historical distribution of the Amur Leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) in Northeast China based on historical records.

PubMed

Yang, Li; Huang, Mujiao; Zhang, Rui; Lv, Jiang; Ren, Yueheng; Jiang, Zhe; Zhang, Wei; Luan, Xiaofeng

2016-01-01

The range of the Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) has decreased dramatically over the last 100 years. This species is still under extreme risk of extinction and conservation efforts are rigorous. Understanding the long-term dynamics of the population decline would be helpful to offer insight into the mechanism behind the decline and endangerment and improve conservation perspectives and strategies. Historical data collection has been the challenge for reconstructing the historical distribution. In China, new gazetteers having systematic compilation and considerable local ecological data can be considered as an important complementary for reconstruction. Therefore, we have set up a data set (mainly based on the new gazetteers) in order to identify the historical range of the Amur Leopard from the 1950s to 2014. The result shows that the Amur leopard was historically widely distributed with large populations in Northeastern China, but it presented a sharp decline after the 1970s. The decline appeared from the plains to the mountains and northeast to southwest since the 1950s. Long-term historical data, mainly from new gazetteers, demonstrates that such resources are capable of tracking species change through time and offers an opportunity to reduce data shortage and enhance understanding in conservation.

Initial brain aging: heterogeneity of mitochondrial size is associated with decline in complex I-linked respiration in cortex and hippocampus.

PubMed

Thomsen, Kirsten; Yokota, Takashi; Hasan-Olive, Md Mahdi; Sherazi, Niloofar; Fakouri, Nima Borhan; Desler, Claus; Regnell, Christine Elisabeth; Larsen, Steen; Rasmussen, Lene Juel; Dela, Flemming; Bergersen, Linda Hildegard; Lauritzen, Martin

2018-01-01

Brain aging is accompanied by declining mitochondrial respiration. We hypothesized that mitochondrial morphology and dynamics would reflect this decline. Using hippocampus and frontal cortex of a segmental progeroid mouse model lacking Cockayne syndrome protein B (CSB m/m ) and C57Bl/6 (WT) controls and comparing young (2-5 months) to middle-aged mice (13-14 months), we found that complex I-linked state 3 respiration (CI) was reduced at middle age in CSB m/m hippocampus, but not in CSB m/m cortex or WT brain. In hippocampus of both genotypes, mitochondrial size heterogeneity increased with age. Notably, an inverse correlation between heterogeneity and CI was found in both genotypes, indicating that heterogeneity reflects mitochondrial dysfunction. The ratio between fission and fusion gene expression reflected age-related alterations in mitochondrial morphology but not heterogeneity. Mitochondrial DNA content was lower, and hypoxia-induced factor 1α mRNA was greater at both ages in CSB m/m compared to WT brain. Our findings show that decreased CI and increased mitochondrial size heterogeneity are highly associated and point to declining mitochondrial quality control as an initial event in brain aging. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using binary statistics in Taurus-Auriga to distinguish between brown dwarf formation processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marks, M.; Martín, E. L.; Béjar, V. J. S.; Lodieu, N.; Kroupa, P.; Manjavacas, E.; Thies, I.; Rebolo López, R.; Velasco, S.

2017-08-01

Context. One of the key questions of the star formation problem is whether brown dwarfs (BDs) form in the manner of stars directly from the gravitational collapse of a molecular cloud core (star-like) or whether BDs and some very low-mass stars (VLMSs) constitute a separate population that forms alongside stars comparable to the population of planets, for example through circumstellar disk (peripheral) fragmentation. Aims: For young stars in Taurus-Auriga the binary fraction has been shown to be large with little dependence on primary mass above ≈ 0.2 M⊙, while for BDs the binary fraction is < 10%. Here we investigate a case in which BDs in Taurus formed dominantly, but not exclusively, through peripheral fragmentation, which naturally results in small binary fractions. The decline of the binary frequency in the transition region between star-like formation and peripheral formation is modelled. Methods: We employed a dynamical population synthesis model in which stellar binary formation is universal with a large binary fraction close to unity. Peripheral objects form separately in circumstellar disks with a distinctive initial mass function (IMF), their own orbital parameter distributions for binaries, and small binary fractions, according to observations and expectations from smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and grid-based computations. A small amount of dynamical processing of the stellar component was accounted for as appropriate for the low-density Taurus-Auriga embedded clusters. Results: The binary fraction declines strongly in the transition region between star-like and peripheral formation, exhibiting characteristic features. The location of these features and the steepness of this trend depend on the mass limits for star-like and peripheral formation. Such a trend might be unique to low density regions, such as Taurus, which host binary populations that are largely unprocessed dynamically in which the binary fraction is large for stars down to M-dwarfs and small for BDs. Conclusions: The existence of a strong decline in the binary fraction - primary mass diagram will become verifiable in future surveys on BD and VLMS binarity in the Taurus-Auriga star-forming region. The binary fraction - primary mass diagram is a diagnostic of the (non-)continuity of star formation along the mass scale, the separateness of the stellar and BD populations, and the dominant formation channel for BDs and BD binaries in regions of low stellar density hosting dynamically unprocessed populations.

Leaf water dynamics of Arabidopsis thaliana monitored in-vivo using terahertz time-domain spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro-Camus, E.; Palomar, M.; Covarrubias, A. A.

2013-10-01

The declining water availability for agriculture is becoming problematic for many countries. Therefore the study of plants under water restriction is acquiring extraordinary importance. Botanists currently follow the dehydration of plants comparing the fresh and dry weight of excised organs, or measuring their osmotic or water potentials; these are destructive methods inappropriate for in-vivo determination of plants' hydration dynamics. Water is opaque in the terahertz band, while dehydrated biological tissues are partially transparent. We used terahertz spectroscopy to study the water dynamics of Arabidopsis thaliana by comparing the dehydration kinetics of leaves from plants under well-irrigated and water deficit conditions. We also present measurements of the effect of dark-light cycles and abscisic acid on its water dynamics. The measurements we present provide a new perspective on the water dynamics of plants under different external stimuli and confirm that terahertz can be an excellent non-contact probe of in-vivo tissue hydration.

Climate-driven spatial dynamics of plague among prairie dog colonies.

PubMed

Snäll, T; O'Hara, R B; Ray, C; Collinge, S K

2008-02-01

We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for the joint spatial dynamics of a host-parasite system. The model was fitted to long-term data on regional plague dynamics and metapopulation dynamics of the black-tailed prairie dog, a declining keystone species of North American prairies. The rate of plague transmission between colonies increases with increasing precipitation, while the rate of infection from unknown sources decreases in response to hot weather. The mean annual dispersal distance of plague is about 10 km, and topographic relief reduces the transmission rate. Larger colonies are more likely to become infected, but colony area does not affect the infectiousness of colonies. The results suggest that prairie dog movements do not drive the spread of plague through the landscape. Instead, prairie dogs are useful sentinels of plague epizootics. Simulations suggest that this model can be used for predicting long-term colony and plague dynamics as well as for identifying which colonies are most likely to become infected in a specific year.

Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

PubMed

Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

PubMed Central

Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λs was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λs included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

Qualitative mathematical models to support ecosystem-based management of Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery.

PubMed

Dambacher, Jeffrey M; Rothlisberg, Peter C; Loneragan, Neil R

2015-01-01

A major decline in the catch of the banana prawn [shrimp], Penaeus (Fenneropenaeus) merguiensis, occurred over a six-year period in the Weipa region of the northeastern Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia. Three main hypotheses have been developed to explain this decline: (1) prawn recruitment collapsed due to overfishing; (2) recruitment collapsed due to a change in the prawn's environment; and (3) adult banana prawns were still present, but fishers could no longer effectively find or catch them. Qualitative mathematical models were used to link population biology, environmental factors, and fishery dynamics to evaluate the alternative hypotheses. This modeling approach provides the means to rapidly integrate knowledge across disciplines and consider alternative hypotheses about how the structure and function of an ecosystem affects its dynamics. Alternative models were constructed to address the different hypotheses and also to encompass a diversity of opinion about the underlying dynamics of the system. Key findings from these analyses are that: instability in the system can arise when discarded fishery bycatch supports relatively high predation pressure; system stability can be enhanced by management of fishing effort or stock catchability; catch per unit effort is not necessarily a reliable indicator of stock abundance; a change in early-season rainfall should affect all stages in the banana prawn's life cycle; and a reduced catch in the Weipa region can create and reinforce a shift in fishing effort away from Weipa. Results from the models informed an approach to test the hypotheses (i.e., an experimental fishing program), and promoted understanding of the system among researchers, management agencies, and industry. The analytical tools developed in this work to address stages of a prawn life cycle and fishery dynamics are generally applicable to any exploited natural. resource.

Emerald ash borer aftermath forests: The dynamics of ash mortality and the responses of other plant species

Treesearch

Kathleen S. Knight; Daniel A. Herms; John Cardina; Robert Long; Joanne Rebbeck; Kamal J.K. Gandhi; Annemarie Smith; Wendy S. Klooster; Catherine P. Herms; Alejandro A. Royo

2010-01-01

The effects of emerald ash borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis) on forest ecosystems are being studied through a collaborative research program involving the U.S. Forest Service's Northern Research Station and The Ohio State University. We are monitoring the decline and mortality of >4,500 ash trees and saplings, EAB population density, changes...

Distribution limits of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis: A case study in the Rocky Mountains, USA

Treesearch

Blake R. Hossack; Erin Muths; Chauncey W. Anderson; Julie A. Kirshtein; Paul Stephen Corn

2009-01-01

Knowledge of the environmental constraints on a pathogen is critical to predicting its dynamics and effects on populations. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), an aquatic fungus that has been linked with widespread amphibian declines, is ubiquitous in the Rocky Mountains. As part of assessing the distribution limits of Bd in our study area, we sampled the water column...

Partnerships in the Pacific Northwest help save an endangered species, whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis): an example of dynamic genetic conservation

Treesearch

Richard A. Sniezko; Michael P. Murray; Charlie V. Cartwright; Jenifer Beck; Dan Omdal; Amy Ramsey; Zolton Bair; George McFadden; Doug Manion; Katherine Fitch; Philip Wapato; Jennifer A. Gruhn; Michael Crawford; Regina M. Rochefort; John Syring; Jun-Jun Liu; Heather E. Lintz; Lorinda Bullington; Brianna A. McTeague; Angelia Kegley

2017-01-01

Whitebark pine (WBP, Pinus albicaulis) is a keystone species distributed widely at high elevations across western North America. It is in decline due to a combination of threats including infection from white pine blister rust (WPBR, caused by the non-native fungal pathogen Cronartium ribicola), mountain pine beetle (...

Landscape-scale dynamics of aspen in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Treesearch

Margot W. Kaye; Kuni Suzuki; Dan Binkley; Thomas J. Stohlgren

2001-01-01

Past studies of quaking aspen in Rocky Mountain National Park suggested that the aspen population is declining due to intensive browsing by elk (Cervus elaphus). These studies were conducted in the elk winter range, an area of intensive elk impact. The elk summer range experiences less intense grazing pressure. We tested the hypothesis that impacts of elk would be...

Model-based assessment of aspen responses to elk herbivory in Rocky Mountain National Park

Treesearch

Peter J. Weisberg; Michael B. Coughenour

2001-01-01

In Rocky Mountain National Park, aspen has been observed to decline on elk winter range for many decades. The SAVANNA ecosystem model was adapted to explore interactions between elk herbivory and aspen dynamics on the elk winter range. Several scenarios were explored that considered different levels of overall elk population; different levels of elk utilization of...

Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson; Raymond Drapeck

2008-01-01

The response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change was simulated for California using the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined, and increases in the productivity of evergreen hardwoods led to the displacement of Evergreen Conifer Forest by Mixed...

Ungulate herbivory on Utah aspen: Assessment of longterm exclosures

Treesearch

Charles E. Kay; Dale L. Bartos

2000-01-01

The role of livestock grazing and big-game browsing in the decline of aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) in the Intermountain West has long been questioned.All known aspen exclosures (n=8) on the Dixie and Fishlake National Forests in south-central Utah were measured during late summer of 1995 and 1996 to determine aspen stem dynamics, successional status, and...

White-tailed deer population dynamics and adult female survival in the presence of a novel predator

Treesearch

Michael C. Chitwood; Marcus A. Lashley; John C. Kilgo; Christopher E. Moorman; Christopher S. Deperno

2015-01-01

Recent localized declines in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations in the southeastern United States have been linked to increasing predation pressure from coyotes (Canis latrans), a novel predator to the region. Studies have documented coyotes as the leading cause of mortality for neonates, and 1 study documented coyotes as a mortality factor for...

The State of Minority Languages. International Perspectives on Survival and Decline. European Studies on Multilingualism. Volume 5.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fase, Willem, Ed.; And Others

In many respects, the state of minority language reflects the dynamics of the society at large. At this time, many minority languages are threatened by modernization and urbanization, although others find support in new regional autonomy and movements toward cultural preservation. The 17 chapters of this collection describe the status of a number…

Abundance and productivity of warbling vireos across an elevational gradient in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Kathryn L. Purcell

2006-01-01

Recent studies have shown that Warbling Vireos (Vireo gilvus) are declining in California and that these trends are due to low reproductive success. Brood parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) has been implicated in the low productivity. I explored two hypotheses related to population dynamics of Warbling Vireos along an elevational gradient: (1)...

Linking Biological and Cognitive Aging: Toward Improving Characterizations of Developmental Time

PubMed Central

DeCarlo, Correne A.; Dixon, Roger A.

2011-01-01

Objectives. Chronological age is the most frequently employed predictor in life-span developmental research, despite repeated assertions that it is best conceived as a proxy for true mechanistic changes that influence cognition across time. The present investigation explores the potential that selected functional biomarkers may contribute to the more effective conceptual and operational definitions of developmental time. Methods. We used data from the Victoria Longitudinal Study to explore both static and dynamic biological or physiological markers that arguably influence process-specific mechanisms underlying cognitive changes in late life. Multilevel models were fit to test the dynamic coupling between change in theoretically relevant biomarkers (e.g., grip strength, pulmonary function) and change in select cognitive measures (e.g., executive function, episodic and semantic memory). Results. Results showed that, independent of the passage of developmental time (indexed as years in study), significant time-varying covariation was observed linking corresponding declines for select cognitive outcomes and biological markers. Discussion. Our findings support the interpretation that cognitive decline is not due to chronological aging per se but rather reflects multiple causal factors from a broad range of biological and physical health domains that operate along the age continuum. PMID:21743053

Evolution mediates the effects of apex predation on aquatic food webs

PubMed Central

Urban, Mark C.

2013-01-01

Ecological and evolutionary mechanisms are increasingly thought to shape local community dynamics. Here, I evaluate if the local adaptation of a meso-predator to an apex predator alters local food webs. The marbled salamander (Ambystoma opacum) is an apex predator that consumes both the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) and shared zooplankton prey. Common garden experiments reveal that spotted salamander populations which co-occur with marbled salamanders forage more intensely than those that face other predator species. These foraging differences, in turn, alter the diversity, abundance and composition of zooplankton communities in common garden experiments and natural ponds. Locally adapted spotted salamanders exacerbate prey biomass declines associated with apex predation, but dampen the top-down effects of apex predation on prey diversity. Countergradient selection on foraging explains why locally adapted spotted salamanders exacerbate prey biomass declines. The two salamander species prefer different prey species, which explains why adapted spotted salamanders buffer changes in prey composition owing to apex predation. Results suggest that local adaptation can strongly mediate effects from apex predation on local food webs. Community ecologists might often need to consider the evolutionary history of populations to understand local diversity patterns, food web dynamics, resource gradients and their responses to disturbance. PMID:23720548

Evolution mediates the effects of apex predation on aquatic food webs.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C

2013-07-22

Ecological and evolutionary mechanisms are increasingly thought to shape local community dynamics. Here, I evaluate if the local adaptation of a meso-predator to an apex predator alters local food webs. The marbled salamander (Ambystoma opacum) is an apex predator that consumes both the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) and shared zooplankton prey. Common garden experiments reveal that spotted salamander populations which co-occur with marbled salamanders forage more intensely than those that face other predator species. These foraging differences, in turn, alter the diversity, abundance and composition of zooplankton communities in common garden experiments and natural ponds. Locally adapted spotted salamanders exacerbate prey biomass declines associated with apex predation, but dampen the top-down effects of apex predation on prey diversity. Countergradient selection on foraging explains why locally adapted spotted salamanders exacerbate prey biomass declines. The two salamander species prefer different prey species, which explains why adapted spotted salamanders buffer changes in prey composition owing to apex predation. Results suggest that local adaptation can strongly mediate effects from apex predation on local food webs. Community ecologists might often need to consider the evolutionary history of populations to understand local diversity patterns, food web dynamics, resource gradients and their responses to disturbance.

Decreased Soil Cation Exchange Capacity Across Northern China's Grasslands Over the Last Three Decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Kai; Kou, Dan; Wang, Guanqin; Chen, Leiyi; Ding, Jinzhi; Li, Fei; Yang, Guibiao; Qin, Shuqi; Liu, Li; Zhang, Qiwen; Yang, Yuanhe

2017-11-01

Cation exchange capacity (CEC) helps soils hold nutrients and buffer pH, making it vital for maintaining basic function of terrestrial ecosystems. However, little is known about the temporal dynamics of CEC over broad geographical scales. In this study, we used random forest method to compare historical CEC data from the 1980s with new data from the 2010s across northern China's grasslands. We found that topsoil CEC in the 2010s was significantly lower than in the 1980s, with an overall decline of about 14%. Topsoil CEC decreased significantly in alpine meadow, alpine steppe, meadow steppe, and typical steppe by 11%, 20%, 27%, and 9%, respectively. Desert steppe was the only ecosystem type that experienced no significant change. CEC was positively related to soil carbon content, silt content, and mean annual precipitation, suggesting that the decline was potentially associated with soil organic carbon loss, soil degradation, soil acidification, and extreme precipitation across northern China's grasslands since the 1980s. Overall, our results demonstrate topsoil CEC loss due to environmental changes, which may alter the vegetation community composition and its productivity and thus trigger grassland dynamics under a changing environment.

Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.

PubMed

Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

2014-03-01

Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.